• Lukashenko Confirms Russian Tactical Nukes Already Being Transferred To Belarus
  Lukashenko Confirms Russian Tactical Nukes Already Being Transferred To Belarus

  Despite urgent warnings from US and Western allies, Moscow is moving forward with plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus. The two longtime allies which form what they call a ‘union state’ signed a deal Thursday to formalize deployment of Russian nukes on Belarusian soil. All of this comes dangerously as Ukraine’s cross-border sabotage attacks on Russian territory have clearly escalated. 

  Alarmingly for Ukraine and its NATO backers, Belarus’ president Alexander Lukashenko said soon after the deal was signed that the transfer of non-strategic nuclear weapons from Russia to Belarus is already underway.

  

  And Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said in Minsk alongside Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu: “Deployment of nonstrategic nuclear weapons is an effective response to the aggressive policy of countries unfriendly to us,” according to regional media.

  Additionally Shoigu stated that “In the context of an extremely sharp escalation of threats on the western borders of Russia and Belarus, a decision was made to take countermeasures in the military-nuclear sphere.”

  Starting months ago international reports said that Russian tactical nukes would soon be in Belarus, but there were conflicting reports over whether it had actually happened yet. 

  Additionally, as AP highlights, “Also unclear is how many nuclear weapons would be kept in Belarus. The U.S. government believes Russia has about 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons, which include bombs that can be carried by aircraft, warheads for short-range missiles and artillery rounds.”

  All of this was put in motion starting in late March, when Russian President Vladimir Putin first announced that Minsk requested the presence of Russian tactical nukes. According to TASS at the time, “As the Russian leader indicated, the construction of storage facilities for tactical nuclear weapons will be completed in Belarus by July 1.”

  “Moscow has already provided Minsk with Iskander tactical missile systems capable of carrying nuclear weapons and has helped Minsk to re-equip its military aircraft to carry specialized weapons,” TASS noted in its prior reporting. “As well, Belarusian missile crews and pilots have undergone training in Russia.”

  NATO has called the move “dangerous and irresponsible” – while EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell previously said, “Belarus hosting Russian nuclear weapons would mean an irresponsible escalation & threat to European security. Belarus can still stop it, it is their choice. The EU stands ready to respond with further sanctions.” Currently the EU is preparing an 11th round of anti-Russia sanctions. 

  Lukashenko tells a TV reporter that the transfer of nuclear warheads from Russia to Belarus has already begun, though he’s a bit evasive when asked if a nuke is already on Belarusian soil. pic.twitter.com/eD7j2lPS0g

  — Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) May 25, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  But it must be recalled that the Unites States stations tactical nuclear weapons in places like Turkey as well some NATO locations in Europe. Turkey is merely across the Black Sea from Russia. This NATO ‘nuclear sharing’ program has been a reality for decades.

  Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu additionally explained on Thursday that NATO is using the Ukraine crisis to build up its military infrastructure there:

  “NATO is using the Ukrainian crisis as a pretext for building up its groups. Another stage of the alliance’s expansion has been launched. Military infrastructure is being modernized in Eastern and Central Europe, strike weapons are being deployed, and the scale and intensity of joint exercises are increasing,” Shoigu said at a meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Council of Defense Ministers.

  He also highlighted “the growing aggressive rhetoric and joint ‘nuclear missions’ by NATO countries in Eastern Europe for practicing the use of nuclear weapons delivery systems, as well as the upgrading of the components of the US global missile defense system.”

  

  This seems an ‘answer’ to the Western allies in terms of the rationale for proceeding with tactical nukes in Belarus.

  But for some important context…

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/26/2023 – 02:45

• Thanks To Sanctions, The US Is Losing Its Grip On The Middle East
  Thanks To Sanctions, The US Is Losing Its Grip On The Middle East

  Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

  Last Friday, members of the Arab League welcomed the Syrian regime back to the organization. Representatives from several Arab member states shook Syrian leader Assad’s hand and gave him, a “warm” reception according to several news outlets. Syria was suspended from the league in 2011, but on May 7 in Cairo the league agreed to reinstate the Assad regime. 

  This represents a reversal from years of isolation placed on the regime, and a break with US policy which remains staunchly opposed to Assad. Indeed, the League’s rapprochement with Assad should be seen as a repudiation of US policy, and especially as a sign of how Washington’s influence among Leage members—the most powerful of which are Saudi Arabia and Egypt—has waned.

  Moreover, this is just the latest bad news for Washington’s influence in the region coming mere weeks after Iran and Saudi Arabia reestablished diplomatic relations.

  In both cases, we find regimes that Washington had sought to isolate and sanction, but both states have instead been expanding their relations with other states in the region with the help of China. Meanwhile, both Beijing and Riyadh have increased their ties with Russia. These development help illustrate how growing US attempt to impose—or threaten to impose—hard line sanctions against a growing number of regimes has only accelerated a global movement away from the US dollar and away from Washington’s orbit. 

  

  Saudi Arabia Increasing Ties with Iran and Syria

  In March of this year, Saudi Arabia and Iran announced a resumption of relations following a deal brokered by China. The Saudi regime—a longtime Washington ally—had apparently not told the Biden administration of the meetings with Iran and China. Shortly after the agreement was announced, the administration dispatched CIA Director William Burns to Saudi Arabia where he reportedly “expressed frustration with the Saudis,” telling “Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that the U.S. has felt blindsided by Riyadh’s rapprochement with Iran and Syria.”

  Although the White House now claims to be supportive of the new agreement between Riyadh and Tehran, this support is really just an admission that there’s not much Washington can do about it. After all, for decades, US policy has been to isolate Tehran and in recent years, Washington has imposed harsh sanctions, including Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure campaign” designed to cripple Iran even more. The Biden administration took no significant steps to reverse the Trump position. The Saudi regime’s newfound openness to Iran is thus contrary to US policy, and it is not plausible that Washington is in any way pleased with the change. 

  From Washington’s perspective, the situation got even worse this month when the Arab League readmitted Syria, also apparently without consulting Washington. Since 2011, the US has imposed draconian sanctions on Syrian in a manner similar to Iran. Syria’s newfound reintegration into the Arab League is thus also contrary to the US’s ongoing efforts to isolate the Assad regime which the US has repeatedly claimed must by subjected to “regime change.” 

  Growing Ties with Russia

  New overtures by the Saudis toward both Syria and Iran also run afoul of Washington because both Iran and Syria are important allies of Moscow. With the US now inflicting harsh sanctions on the Russian regime, anything that helps Damascus and Tehran has the potential to help Moscow as well. 

  Both the Saudis and the Chinese have shown growing efforts to forge ties directly with the Russian regime as well. At a Chinese-Russian summit in February 2022, both regimes stated they plan to forge even closer ties. This has apparently not changed even after a year of heightened hostilities from the US and NATO aimed at Moscow. In fact, it is likely that Russia-China relations are closer than they’ve ever been in the post-Soviet era. This has clearly been a problem for Washington as China continues to provide an important market for Russian exports in the face of US sanctions. Both states have also made efforts to move away from the US dollar and settle international trade in other currencies. 

  This might all be dismissed as the scheming of foreign powers that were never reliable “partners” or allies of the US in the first place. But Saudi Arabia is another matter, and the Saudis are apparently willing to play nice with the Russians, Chinese, and other members of the latest supposed “Axis of Evil.” 

  The Saudi regime has grown closer to Moscow in the wake of US sanctions against Russia. For example, “Saudi Arabia and the UAE, traditional Middle Eastern allies of the United States, are not shying away from importing, storing, trading, or re-exporting Russian fuels despite American efforts to persuade them to join a crackdown on Russian attempts to evade the Western sanctions on its oil.”

  In other words, US efforts to get the Arab world to isolate Russia are failing, and Russian ties with the Middle East are actually improving. 

  This can be seen in the fact that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)—which is dominated by its largest producer, Saudi Arabia—has shown no interest in helping the US in its sanctions war against Russia. Instead, OPEC has cut production levels to raise oil prices, which benefits Moscow. The US has opposed these cuts, and now some anti-Russia factions in the US are exploring ways to punish OPEC for its lack of enthusiasm in cooperating with US efforts against Russia. 

  At this point, a trend has clearly emerged: as the US further attempts to tighten its geopolitical grip on the global economy through economic sanctions, fewer and fewer states worldwide appear interested in playing along. 

  Indeed, the spread of US sanctions provides good reason for other regimes to increase efforts to forge close ties with other regimes as insurance against becoming the victims of US policy. After all, the US has been quite free and easy with threatening “uncooperative” countries with so-called secondary sanctions as a punishment for doing business with states like Syria and Russia. The US has been explicit in this and in February, as CNN reported at the time, “the United States is ramping up efforts to choke off Russia’s economy and it has set its sight on the Middle East. . . . A top US Treasury official arrived in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Monday to warn the regional business hub that helping Moscow evade sanctions wouldn’t be without consequences.” China had already been “warned” in a similar fashion. 

  Yet, it appears that the US’s ongoing sanctions war against a growing percentage of the world population is having the opposite of its intended effect. The US threatens to sanction Saudi Arabia and China, and in return, both countries become even more willing to seek cooperation with some of the regimes Washington has attacked the most.

  While Washington pursued a divide-and-conquer strategy throughout the Middle East, Beijing brokers deals to increase regional stability. While the US ratchets up efforts to isolate its many enemies, the Chinese, the Saudis, the Arab League, and OPEC all shrug and look to increasing international communication and trade.  The Washington foreign policy establishment shows few signs that it is even noticing. The US regimes foreign policy “tool box” continues to be centered on sanctions, violence, and making demands on both its allies and its professed enemies. The rest of the world is moving on, however, and Washington may be among the last to accept the new reality.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 05/26/2023 – 02:00

• Rein In The FBI: Put An End To Their Gestapo Tactics
  Rein In The FBI: Put An End To Their Gestapo Tactics

  Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “One of the creeping hands of totalitarianism running through the democracy is the Federal Bureau of Investigation… Because why does the FBI do all this? To scare the hell out of people… They work for the establishment and the corporations and the politicos to keep things as they are. And they want to frighten and chill the people who are trying to change things.”

  – Howard Zinn, historian

  Power corrupts. We know this.

  In fact, we know this from experience learned the hard way at the hands of our own government.

  So why is anyone surprised to learn that the FBI, one of the most power-hungry and corrupt agencies within the police state’s vast complex of power-hungry and corrupt agencies, misused a massive government surveillance database more than 300,000 times in order to target American citizens?

  This is how the government operates, after all.

  

  First, they seek out extraordinary powers acquired in the wake of some national crisis—in this case, warrantless surveillance powers intended to help the government spy on foreign targets suspected of engaging in terrorism—and then they use those powers against the American people.

  According to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, the FBI repeatedly misused Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act in order to spy on the communications of two vastly disparate groups of Americans: those involved in the George Floyd protests and those who may have taken part in the Jan. 6, 2021, protests at the Capitol.

  This is par for the course for the FBI, whose modus operandi has historically been to “expose, disrupt, misdirect, discredit, or otherwise neutralize” perceived threats to the government’s power.

  Indeed, the FBI has a long history of persecuting, prosecuting and generally harassing activists, politicians, and cultural figures.

  Back in the 1950s and ‘60s, the FBI’s targets were civil rights activists, those suspected of having Communist ties, and anti-war activists. In more recent decades, the FBI has expanded its reach to target so-called domestic extremists, environmental activists, and those who oppose the police state.

  In 2019, President Trump promised to give the FBI “whatever they need” to investigate and disrupt hate crimes and domestic terrorism, without any apparent thought for the Constitution’s prohibitions on such overreach.

  That misguided pledge sheds a curious light on the FBI’s ongoing spree of SWAT team raids, surveillance, disinformation campaigns, fear-mongering, paranoia, and strong-arm tactics meted out to dissidents on both the right and the left.

  Yet while these overreaching, heavy-handed lessons in how to rule by force have become standard operating procedure for a government that communicates with its citizenry primarily through the language of brutality, intimidation and fear, none of this is new.

  Indeed, the FBI’s love affair with totalitarianism can be traced back to the Nazi police state.

  As historian Robert Gellately recounts, the Nazi police state was so admired for its efficiency and order by the world powers of the day that in the decades after World War II, the FBI, along with other government agencies, aggressively recruited at least a thousand Nazis, including some of Hitler’s highest henchmen.

  Since then, U.S. government agencies—the FBI, CIA and the military—have fully embraced many of the Nazi’s well-honed policing tactics, and used them repeatedly against American citizens.

  With every passing day, the United States government borrows yet another leaf from Nazi Germany’s playbook: Secret police. Secret courts. Secret government agencies. Surveillance. Censorship. Intimidation. Harassment. Torture. Brutality. Widespread corruption. Entrapment. Indoctrination. Indefinite detention.

  These are not tactics used by constitutional republics, where the rule of law and the rights of the citizenry reign supreme. Rather, they are the hallmarks of authoritarian regimes, where secret police control the populace through intimidation, fear and official lawlessness on the part of government agents.

  Consider the extent to which the FBI’s far-reaching powers to surveil, detain, interrogate, investigate, prosecute, punish, police and generally act as a law unto themselves resemble those of their Nazi cousins, the Gestapo.

  Just like the Gestapo, the FBI has vast resources, vast investigatory powers, and vast discretion to determine who is an enemy of the state.

  Much like the Gestapo spied on mail and phone calls, FBI agents have carte blanche access to the citizenry’s most personal information.

  Much like the Gestapo’s sophisticated surveillance programs, the FBI’s spying capabilities can delve into Americans’ most intimate details (and allow local police to do so, as well).

  Much like the Gestapo’s ability to profile based on race and religion, and its assumption of guilt by association, the FBI’s approach to pre-crime allows it to profile Americans based on a broad range of characteristics including race and religion.

  Much like the Gestapo’s power to render anyone an enemy of the state, the FBI has the power to label anyone a domestic terrorist.

  Much like the Gestapo infiltrated communities in order to spy on the German citizenry, the FBI routinely infiltrates political and religious groups, as well as businesses.

  Just as the Gestapo united and militarized Germany’s police forces into a national police force, America’s police forces have largely been federalized and turned into a national police force.

  Just as the Gestapo carried out entrapment operations, the FBI has become a master in the art of entrapment.

  Just as the Gestapo’s secret files on political leaders were used to intimidate and coerce, the FBI’s attempts to target and spy on anyone suspected of “anti-government” sentiment have been similarly abused.

  The Gestapo became the terror of the Third Reich by creating a sophisticated surveillance and law enforcement system that relied for its success on the cooperation of the military, the police, the intelligence community, neighborhood watchdogs, government workers for the post office and railroads, ordinary civil servants, and a nation of snitches inclined to report “rumors, deviant behavior, or even just loose talk.”

  Likewise, as countless documents make clear, the FBI has had no qualms about using its extensive powers in order to blackmail politicians, spy on celebrities and high-ranking government officials, and intimidate and attempt to discredit dissidents of all stripes.

  In fact, borrowing heavily from the Gestapo, between 1956 and 1971, the FBI conducted an intensive domestic intelligence program, termed COINTELPRO, intended to neutralize domestic political dissidents. As Congressman Steve Cohen explains, “COINTELPRO was set up to surveil and disrupt groups and movements that the FBI found threatening… many groups, including anti-war, student, and environmental activists, and the New Left were harassed, infiltrated, falsely accused of criminal activity          .”

  Sound familiar? The more things change, the more they stay the same.

  Those targeted by the FBI under COINTELPRO for its intimidation, surveillance and smear campaigns included: Martin Luther King Jr., Malcom X, the Black Panther Party, Billie Holiday, Emma Goldman, Aretha Franklin, Charlie Chaplin, Ernest Hemingway, Felix Frankfurter, John Lennon, and hundreds more.

  The Church Committee, the Senate task force charged with investigating COINTELPRO abuses in 1975, denounced the government’s abuses:

  “Too many people have been spied upon by too many Government agencies and too much information has been collected. The Government has often undertaken the secret surveillance of citizens on the basis of their political beliefs, even when those beliefs posed no threat of violence or illegal acts on behalf of a hostile foreign power.”

  The report continued:

  “Groups and individuals have been harassed and disrupted because of their political views and their lifestyles. Investigations have been based upon vague standards whose breadth made excessive collection inevitable. Unsavory and vicious tactics have been employed—including anonymous attempts to break up marriages, disrupt meetings, ostracize persons from their professions, and provoke target groups into rivalries that might result in deaths. Intelligence agencies have served the political and personal objectives of presidents and other high officials.”

  Whether 50 years ago or in the present day, the treatment being doled out by the government’s lethal enforcers has remained consistent, no matter the threat.

  The FBI’s laundry list of crimes against the American people includes surveillance, disinformation, blackmail, entrapment, intimidation tactics, harassment and indoctrination, governmental overreach, abuse, misconduct, trespassing, enabling criminal activity, and damaging private property, and that’s just based on what we know.

  Whether the FBI is planting undercover agents in churches, synagogues and mosques; issuing fake emergency letters to gain access to Americans’ phone records; using intimidation tactics to silence Americans who are critical of the government; recruiting high school students to spy on and report fellow students who show signs of being future terrorists; or persuading impressionable individuals to plot acts of terror and then entrapping them, the overall impression of the nation’s secret police force is that of a well-dressed thug, flexing its muscles and doing the boss’ dirty work of ensuring compliance, keeping tabs on potential dissidents, and punishing those who dare to challenge the status quo.

  As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, it’s time to rein in the Federal Bureau of Intimidation’s war on political freedom.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 23:40

• Antibiotic-Resistant Bugs Will Kill As Many As Cancer By 2050; UN Report
  Antibiotic-Resistant Bugs Will Kill As Many As Cancer By 2050; UN Report

  Deaths from drug-resistant infections are set to skyrocket by 2050, according to the UN 2023 report ‘Bracing for Superbugs: Strengthening environmental action in the One Health response to antimicrobial resistance.’

  Unless drastic action is taken to tackle the problem, it could also lead to a GDP shortfall of $3.4 trillion annually in the next decade and push 24 more people into extreme poverty.

  As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to recent estimates, in 2019, 1.27 million deaths were directly attributed to drug-resistant infections globally, while 4.95 million deaths were linked with bacterial AMR. That’s now well above the death counts of major killers HIV/AIDS and malaria, which were estimated to have claimed the lives of 860,000 and 640,000, respectively, that year. As the following chart shows, antibiotic-resistant infections could kill as many as 10 million people in just three decades – on par with the 2020 death toll from cancer.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Although the risks of AMR will impact people worldwide, Low-Income Countries (LICs) and Lower-Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) are expected to see the highest death tolls. By region, Asia is predicted to see the highest number of AMR-related deaths per 10,000 population in 2050 (4,730,000), followed by Africa (4,150,000), Latin America (392,000), Europe (390,000), North America (317,000) and Oceania (22,000).

  According to the report, AMR also exacerbates inequalities within societies and so groups including women, children, migrants, refugees, people employed in sectors such as agriculture or healthcare, as well as those living in poverty will be particularly vulnerable to drug-resistant infections.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 23:20

• Legislation To Block Biden's ATF Rule Stalls As Millions Set To Become Felons Overnight 
  Legislation To Block Biden’s ATF Rule Stalls As Millions Set To Become Felons Overnight 

  Submitted by Gun Owners of America,

  Most Americans are unaware that a new rule from President Biden’s ATF is less than one week away from turning millions of fellow citizens into felons overnight. 

  The new rule targets firearms that utilize a brace, a device originally designed to aid disabled veterans in shooting guns without assistance. These braces were approved for sale and use by ATF themselves. 

  An estimated 40 million of these firearms are owned by law-abiding citizens. Those citizens, unless aware of the ATF’s rule change, will become felons on June 1st – unless the House votes on H. J. Res. 44 to overturn the ban using the Congressional Review Act. 

  This process allows both chambers of Congress to pass a resolution of disapproval to nullify the regulation, and a vote in the Senate would not be subject to filibuster rules. 

  When the clock strikes midnight on May 31st, up to 40,000,000 pistol-braced firearms will be deemed illegal by the ATF.

  And the law-abiding Americans who own these guns will become felons.

  Congress can stop this tyranny by passing my bill, H.J.Res. 44.

  But we must act NOW.

  — Rep. Andrew Clyde (@Rep_Clyde) May 23, 2023

  The Republican-controlled House has already cleared the resolution through committee. Currently, there are 189 cosponsors of the bill. But for some reason, it is not scheduled a vote before Congress goes into recess or the rule goes into effect. 

  This vote is extremely important because it would force members of the Senate, with vulnerable Democrats in gun-friendly states, to go on the record while answering this question: will you vote to allow this administration to turn many of your constituents into felons overnight? 

  Even though the CRA likely would be vetoed by the President, getting these members of Congress on record holds them accountable to their constituents. It would look ridiculous if they voted no on an issue like this which affects such a large swath of the population, but then turned around and preached about being “pro-gun.” 

  Ben from GOA explains why the ATF’s ‘free’ tax stamp for your braced firearms isn’t exactly free… 

  This is where we need your help. 

  You can call your elected officials at (202) 224-3121.

  Tell them to demand that your representative tell Speaker McCarthy to schedule a vote for this important issue that impacts millions of Americans. 

  And if they aren’t already, let them know to support S.J. RES. 20 if they’re in the Senate & H.J. RES. 20 if they’re in the House of Representatives 

  *    *    *

  We’ll hold the line for you in Washington. We are No Compromise. Join the Fight Now.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 23:00

• Iowa Poll: Trump Holds 3-to-1 Lead Over DeSantis
  Iowa Poll: Trump Holds 3-to-1 Lead Over DeSantis

  Authored by Jake Bevan via RealClear Wire,

  An abortive rally and an expanding field of challengers hasn’t hurt Donald Trump’s standing in Iowa, according to a new poll from Emerson College. In results released Thursday morning, 62% of Republican voters indicated they would choose Trump as the party’s nominee, giving the former president a 3-to-1 margin over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who clocked in at 20%. Mike Pence and Nikki Haley are tied for third with 5%. 

  

  DeSantis, who formally declared his run Wednesday during a Twitter livestream with Elon Musk, has long been considered the most significant challenger to Trump for the GOP nomination, but the gap between the two has been expanding. Although the governor made a pair of widely covered visits to Iowa earlier this month, any corresponding boost in the polls has yet to materialize. The Emerson survey places him about on par with the current RCP national average. 

  Nonetheless, the DeSantis campaign may have exposed a fault line within the GOP’s base. The new poll found that although Trump was preferred by Republican voters across the board, he was especially favored by those under the age of 35 (75%) and without a college degree (70%). DeSantis is much closer among Republicans with a postgraduate degree. 

  The poll found that either candidate would beat President Biden handily in Iowa if the election were held today. A rematch between Trump and Biden shows a 49%-38% Trump lead in the Hawkeye State, with 10% voting third party and 6% undecided. DeSantis leads Biden 45%-38%. 

  Despite this — and despite a meager 35% job approval rating in the state — Iowa Democrats remain united behind Biden. Emerson found 69% of them ready to support his reelection in 2024. Environmentalist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. comes in a distant second at 11%. 

  The survey also showed that the top concern among Iowans is the economy, with 31% of all voters citing it as the most important issue facing their state. This was followed by education (15%), “threats to democracy” (15%), immigration (10%), abortion access (9%), and health care (8%).

  Election integrity continues to be an especially divisive issue. Although the majority of those polled stated that Joe Biden’s 2020 victory was legitimate, 46% of Iowa voters — including 43% of independents — said it was not.  There was, predictably, a split along party lines: 91% of Democrats believe the election results to be sound, and 78% of Republicans do not. 

  Iowans are also anxious for their state’s caucus to retain its first-in-the-nation status, a roughly 50-year-old tradition that has cemented Iowa as a cornerstone of the American political landscape and transformed the sparsely populated, rural state into a kind of presidential power broker. Its status has been threatened this year following a move by Democrats to swap Iowa with South Carolina in their primary lineup. 

  About three-fourths of voters found it “very” (40%) or “somewhat” (34%) important that Iowa keep its perch as first in the nation. Republicans were particularly animated by the issue, with 86% saying it was important. 

  Voters in Iowa are also divided, though less informed, when it comes to the looming prospect of America’s first-ever default on its national debt. Half of them (49%) are against raising the debt ceiling, compared to 36% in favor, with 16% unsure. 

  The one area where Iowans from both parties unequivocally agreed?  The need for televised presidential debates. A whopping 92% of all caucus voters found that participation in debates was important prior to making a decision. Trump has cited his poll numbers as proof that he need not debate with any of his party’s numerous upstart candidates. Iowans do not agree. 

  Emerson’s poll was conducted May 19-23 among 1,064 registered voters. The margin of error is roughly 2.9 percentage points.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 22:20

• Who Made The Most US Unicorn Acquisitions Since 1997?
  Who Made The Most US Unicorn Acquisitions Since 1997?

  The elusive unicorn is no longer a myth in the U.S. startup world, with over a thousand private startups reaching a $1 billion valuation in the last 25 years.

  While some of these startups eventually go public and go on to become household names, it’s also common for founders to exit through mergers and acquisitions (M&A), by selling their startup to another organization. In fact, over half of the 1,110 unicorns in the U.S. have made some sort of an exit—either through an IPO, a direct listing, a SPAC or an acquisition—since 1997.

  Ilya Strebulaev, professor of finance and private equity at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, brings us this visualization featuring the companies that acquired the most unicorns over the last 25 years.

  Strebulaev’s database lists 137 private and public companies along with PE firms who’ve acquired at least one unicorn since 1997, totaling 177 acquisitions.

  

  The Biggest U.S. Unicorn Acquirers

  In total, 27 companies have acquired two or more unicorns, accounting for nearly 38% of all acquisitions. 110 companies have acquired just one unicorn.

  Company/ PE Group	Acquired
  Meta	5
  Cisco	4
  Alphabet	4
  Amazon	3
  Nortel Networks	3
  Bristol-Myers Squibb	3
  Johnson & Johnson	3
  Merck & Co.	3
  AT&T	3
  Recruit Holdings	2
  IBM	2
  Microsoft	2
  Thoma Bravo	2
  Headspace Health	2
  Allergan	2
  Qualcomm	2
  Rakuten	2
  Adobe Systems	2
  Eli Lilly	2
  Vista Equity	2
  Dell	2
  Uber	2
  Oracle	2
  Nestle	2
  Lucent Technologies	2
  Broadcom Corporation	2
  GlaxoSmithKline	2
  BlackBerry	2
  Searchlight Capital Partners	1
  Singtel	1
  Vmware	1
  Internet Capital Group	1
  Hellman & Friedman	1
  AppLovin	1
  Ciena Corporation	1
  Redback Networks	1
  Aether Systems	1
  Fresenius Medical Care	1
  Electronic Arts	1
  Genentech	1
  Inktomi	1
  VistaJet	1
  Ariba	1
  Keurig Dr Pepper	1
  Fullscreen	1
  Sycamore Networks	1
  Novartis	1
  TP ICAP	1
  eBay	1
  DoveBid	1
  McKesson	1
  IG Group	1
  Empower Retirement	1
  Dentsply Sirona	1
  Novo Nordisk	1
  Centocor	1
  Bausch Health	1
  Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma	1
  Medtronic	1
  Mubadala Investment Company	1
  Cint Group	1
  Qualtrics	1
  Rocket Companies	1
  Saudi Arabia’s PIF	1
  Prosus	1
  Cigna	1
  One Medical	1
  Exact Sciences	1
  Teladoc Health	1
  Ericsson	1
  SoFi	1
  PayPal Holdings	1
  Bayer	1
  Monsanto	1
  AMD	1
  Aurora	1
  Marvell International	1
  Bill.com	1
  ADC	1
  Dealertrack	1
  Cox Enterprises	1
  L’Oreal	1
  AstraZeneca	1
  Workday	1
  Iron Mountain	1
  Splunk	1
  Stonepeak	1
  American Express	1
  OfferUp	1
  VMware	1
  Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan	1
  Groupon	1
  Allstate Corporation	1
  LinkedIn	1
  SAP	1
  Mindbody	1
  Mallinckrodt	1
  Walmart	1
  GMT Communications	1
  Brightstar Capital	1
  Enterprise Holdings	1
  Healtheon Corporation	1
  Apple	1
  PetSmart	1
  Epiphany	1
  Rice Energy	1
  Unilever	1
  SBA Communications	1
  Bridgepoint Advisers	1
  Aurea	1
  Vector Capital	1
  FireEye	1
  Littlejohn & Co	1
  Alexion	1
  SoftBank Investment Advisers	1
  Francisco Partners	1
  Betfair Group	1
  Shift Technologies	1
  Hudson’s Bay	1
  Illumina	1
  Hewlett Packard Enterprise	1
  AbbVie	1
  Salesforce	1
  Hanergy	1
  Teleflex	1
  Twilio	1
  Okta	1
  Celgene	1
  NantCell	1
  VMware & EMC Corp	1
  Intuit	1
  Yahoo!	1
  Netmarble Games	1
  F5 Networks	1
  Roche	1
  Centerbridge Partners	1
  Total	177

  Meta, the parent company of Facebook, leads the pack with the most unicorn acquisitions in the U.S., purchasing five unicorns since its founding in 2008, including: Kustomer, WhatsApp, Instagram, CTRL-Labs, and Oculus VR.

  Notably, WhatsApp—which closed at a purchase price of $19 billion—was Meta’s most expensive acquisition yet, over nine times their next most expensive purchase, Oculus VR.

  Meanwhile, Alphabet (now the parent company of Google) and Cisco are tied in second place with four U.S. unicorn acquisitions each.

  • Alphabet: YouTube, Actifio, Nest Labs, Looker Data Sciences
  • Cisco: Cerent, Duo Security, AppDynamics, Jasper

  Unlike its Big Tech peers, Apple has only made the one U.S. unicorn acquisition: navigation company HopStop that helped bring public transit features to Apple Maps.

  Meanwhile, 56% of acquirers received venture capital funding of their own when they were private companies. This includes pack leaders like Meta, Cisco, Alphabet, and Amazon.

  Are Unicorn Acquisitions Slowing Down?

  Unicorn acquisitions are driven by two factors: the rate at which new unicorns are minted, and the climate for M&A transactions more broadly.

  To begin with, the minting of new unicorns is largely influenced by the venture funding environment. Funding opportunities increase when interest rates go down, which makes riskier, venture-scale ideas more enticing. During the last decade of persistently low interest rates up until 2022, unicorns flourished more than ever.

  Meanwhile, as tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta began seeing outsized profits in the 2010s, venture investors and their LPs looked to get in on the ground floor of tech startups that could emulate their success, often paying premium valuations for the chance. Simultaneously, big tech looked to acquire unicorns themselves, both to augment their business lines and to squash potential competitors.

  However, the era of “easy money” may have come to an end, and privately-held startups have seen valuations drop in recent years. This means that for the next little while—at least until monetary policy stops tightening—unicorns could become a rarer sight.

  Unicorn acquisitions may also see a similar fate. Persistent inflation and the government anti-trust push are just some of the other factors that have led to VC-backed startup acquisitions falling to their lowest quarterly levels in a decade. The more expensive the valuation, the harder to find a buyer, which means that some unicorns may even lose their $1 billion tag even when they do get acquired.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 22:00

• Dangerous Global Shift From Dollar Driven By CCP And US Policy, Experts Say
  Dangerous Global Shift From Dollar Driven By CCP And US Policy, Experts Say

  Authored by Alex Newman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The trend away from the U.S. dollar in global trade and finance is accelerating rapidly as inflation persists, government debt levels explode, and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) roams the planet negotiating deals in other currencies.

  

  The economic and political implications of the dollar’s possible loss of its prized status as global reserve currency are hard to overstate, according to experts.

  In fact, such a development—if and when it occurs—could prove catastrophic to U.S. consumers as their spending power evaporates, economists are warning amid debt-ceiling negotiations that have sent tremors around the world.

  Numerous analysts who spoke with The Epoch Times warned that the CCP and other U.S. adversaries were actively advancing the global effort to undermine the dollar.

  However, current and former U.S. lawmakers and policymakers also placed much of the blame on the Biden administration, U.S. government spending, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies.

  “The dollar is clearly at risk from foreign enemies who wish to challenge American power and domestic fools who believe the American credit card has no limits on spending,” explained Kevin Freeman, host of the Economic War Room and an authority on economic warfare.

  In comments to The Epoch Times, Freeman, who has briefed top U.S. military officials and policymakers, pointed to CCP strongman Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin as foreign adversaries seeking to undermine the dollar.

  The Saudis and numerous powers across Africa and Latin America have joined the “anti-dollar cabal” in recent months, he added.

  But the U.S. government deserves some of the blame for the developments, he said.

  “Sadly, we are making it easy for them with massive debt increases, an erratic foreign policy, and Washington’s arrogance that ignores the threat,” said Freeman, who also serves as a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy.

  Multiple members of Congress who spoke with The Epoch Times echoed the concerns about the Biden administration’s role in the accelerating shift away from the dollar.

  Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) pointed to the president himself. “Joe Biden’s war mongering, runaway inflation, and irresponsible spending sprees have threatened our currency’s value,” he said.

  A broad range of experts who spoke with The Epoch Times were divided on when or even if the U.S. dollar might lose its status as global reserve currency, and what that could mean for the U.S. economy and the American people.

  While many are warning of calamity, some even said there may be a “silver lining” to the U.S. dollar losing its global position.

  But regardless of when or how the saga plays out, the significance of the trends surrounding the U.S. dollar and its role in the world will be profound and highly disruptive at the very least, experts said.

  De-dollarization

  Thanks to the unchallengeable supremacy of the United States in the aftermath of World War II and the dollar’s nominal backing by gold at the time, and later its endorsement by oil exporters as the “petro-dollar,” the American currency has reigned supreme among currencies for over 70 years.

  The dollar still benefits from what is known as the “network effect” as well as the fact that U.S. capital markets are the deepest and most liquid in the world, experts told The Epoch Times.

  But if current trends away from the dollar and political instability continue, analysts say the American currency’s coveted status as the global reserve could be shaken or even lost for good. In fact, the process is already underway, some experts warned.

  The dollar’s share of global reserves just two decades ago was at about 75 percent, according to experts and analysts. Today, estimates suggest it is under 50 percent and shrinking fast.

  

  Speaking at the 2023 Milken Institute Global Conference, International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva highlighted the trend.

  “There has been a gradual shift away from the dollar,” she said, adding that the euro, the British pound, and the CCP’s yuan were all gaining ground.

  While Georgieva said she did not anticipate an imminent rise of a viable alternative as “we may migrate to central bank digital currencies massively,” that does not mean it will not come eventually.

  Non-Western central banks are also buying gold in record quantities, and analysts expect that demand to remain strong.

  “We think this trend of central bank buying is likely to continue amid heightened geopolitical risks and elevated inflation,” Swiss bank UBS said in a note.

  “In fact, the US decision to freeze Russian foreign exchange reserves in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine may have led to a long-term impact on the behavior of central banks.”

  Even traditional U.S. allies have been conducting deals in non-dollar currencies. In late March, for example, the French government completed its first cross-border liquified natural gas deal in Chinese yuan.

  

  Also in March, authorities in Brazil—an economic powerhouse that historically has had close relations with the United States—also inked a deal with the CCP to trade in domestic currencies rather than the dollar.

  The trends are accelerating. According to a recent note by prominent currency analyst Stephen Jen at Eurizon SLJ, the dollar lost market share in 2022 at 10 times the pace as during the previous 20 years—a trend he says most analysts have missed.

  The speed at which this is happening is dramatic, too. “Adjusting for these price changes, the dollar, we calculate, has lost some 11 percent of its market share since 2016 and double that amount since 2008,” added Jen, who previously worked at Morgan Stanley.

  Much of the recent acceleration has to do with U.S. policy on Ukraine. “This erosion in the USD’s reserve currency status has accelerated precipitously since the start of the war in Ukraine,” noted Jen, pointing to “exceptional actions” against Russia that “startled” large reserve-holding countries.

  “What we witnessed in 2022 was sort of a ‘defund-the-global-police’ moment, whereby many reserve managers in the world disagreed with the conduct of both Russia and the US.”

  CCP Agenda

  Calls for a new global monetary system and reserve currency are not new, though. Even a decade ago, the CCP was promoting the idea through its propaganda machine.

  “What may also be included as a key part of an effective reform is the introduction of a new international reserve currency that is to be created to replace the dominant U.S. dollar, so that the international community could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic political turmoil in the United States,” Liu Chang wrote in an opinion piece for Xinhua, a CCP propaganda and intelligence-gathering operation.

  Analysts said the Xinhua editorial was undoubtedly approved by senior CCP officials and clearly reflected Beijing’s views.

  One benefit of such a policy would be to “encourage Washington to play a much more constructive role in addressing global affairs,” the CCP piece continued, calling for a “de-Americanized” so-called “new world order.”

  It was hardly the first time the CCP touted the idea. In a 2009 report by People’s Bank of China chief Zhou Xiaochuan dubbed “Reform the International Monetary System,” the CCP called for an “international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run.” The proposed global currency could be issued by the IMF, he said.

  In other words, almost 15 years ago, the highest echelons of power in Beijing were plotting a global currency to replace the dollar as the world reserve.

  When asked about the idea at a Council on Foreign Relations event, then-U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner shocked observers. “We’re actually quite open to that,” he said, causing the dollar to plunge.

  Many of the same policymakers from the Obama administration in 2009 who were supportive of the idea remain in positions of influence in the Biden administration today.

  And as The Epoch Times reported in 2021 amid the CCP virus crisis, the IMF has been moving in that direction with its special drawing rights, a sort of proto-global currency issued by the global financial institution.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 21:40

• Alabama Lawmakers Advance 'What Is A Woman' Bill Defining Male, Female Sex
  Alabama Lawmakers Advance ‘What Is A Woman’ Bill Defining Male, Female Sex

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  Alabama lawmakers advanced legislation on May 24 that seeks to define an individual’s sex based on their reproductive systems under state law.

  HB405 (pdf), known as the “What is a Woman” Act, was introduced by Republican state Rep. Susan DuBose.

  The House Health Committee voted along party lines to approve the bill, which now heads to the House floor for a vote.

  Under the legislation, a “female” is defined as an individual whose biological reproductive system is designed to produce ova, and a “male” is defined as an individual whose biological reproductive system is designed to fertilize the ova of a female.

  The legislation also defines “woman” and “girl” as human females, while the terms “man” and “boy” refer to human males.

  Elsewhere, the term “mother” is defined as a parent that is of the female sex under state law, while the term “father” is defined as a parent that is of the male sex.

  “When it comes to sex, ‘equal’ does not mean ‘same’ or ‘identical,’” the legislation states. “When it comes to sex, ‘separate’ is not inherently unequal.”

  The legislation includes an exception in the case of individuals who are born with a medically verifiable diagnosis of a “disorder or difference in sex development,” and such individuals will be provided legal protections and accommodations afforded under the federal Americans with Disabilities Act, according to the measure.

  Bill Protects Women, Lawmakers say

  “Notwithstanding any state law to the contrary, there are legitimate reasons to distinguish between the sexes with respect to athletics, prisons or other detention facilities, domestic violence shelters, rape crisis centers, locker rooms, bathrooms, and other areas where biology, safety, or privacy are implicated,” the measure states.

  “Policies and laws that distinguish between the sexes are subject to intermediate constitutional scrutiny, which forbids unfair discrimination against similarly-situated males and females but allows the law to distinguish between the sexes where such distinctions are substantially related to important governmental objectives,” it adds.

  The measure would also require any state department, school district, or public school to include an individual’s biological sex in all reporting of health, crime, economic, or other data.

  DuBose has argued that the bill is needed to prevent violence from occurring in “women’s spaces,” telling AL.com that such incidents are occurring in places “throughout our nation” that are open to transgender women, who are biological males.

  The Republican lawmaker stressed that the bill “is in no way trying to deny their existence, or their rights or their relevance or their importance,” referring to transgender women, adding that she believes the legislation will “affect a few women that are in these very specific situations,” and not the majority of people.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 21:20

• NYC Mayor Eric Adams Asks To Suspend 'Right To Shelter' Rule, Citing Illegal Immigrant Influx
  NYC Mayor Eric Adams Asks To Suspend ‘Right To Shelter’ Rule, Citing Illegal Immigrant Influx

  Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Democrat New York City Mayor Eric Adams is arguing in court for the suspension of the city’s “Right to Shelter” requirement, citing the ongoing influx of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers in the city.

  

  Following a 1984 court decision known as the “Callahan consent decree,” New York City has had to provide shelter for virtually all homeless people who apply. Adams has been seeking a suspension or modification of this “Right to Shelter” rule and on Tuesday his office formally requested (pdf) that a New York City judge pause the shelter rule.

  The Adams administration has been feeling a strain on its shelter capacity as a result of a prolonged influx of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers. The Mayor’s office has estimated more than 65,000 illegal immigrants and asylum have arrived in New York City since last year and more than 44,000 continue to use city shelters. In total, New York City is currently supporting 93,000 individuals in its shelter program; a number that “far exceeds the City’s previous highest-ever-recorded population of 61,000 individuals.”

  Adams is seeking to modify the shelter rule by adding a provision that states: “The obligations to provide shelter to both homeless adults and to adult families shall be stayed when the City of New York acting through the New York City Department of Homeless Services (‘DHS’) lacks the resources and capacity to establish and maintain sufficient shelter sites, staffing, and security to provide safe and appropriate shelter.”

  Adams defended his calls to suspend the “Right to Shelter” requirements in a Tuesday press statement.

  “We are in no way seeking to end the right to shelter. Today’s action will allow us to get clarity from the court and preserve the right to shelter for the tens of thousands in our care—both previously unhoused individuals and asylum seekers,” Adams said. “Given that we’re unable to provide care for an unlimited number of people and are already overextended, it is in the best interest of everyone, including those seeking to come to the United States, to be upfront that New York City cannot single-handedly provide care to everyone crossing our border.”

  Illegal Immigrant Bussing Straining NYC Shelters

  In his petition to the court to suspend the shelter rule, the Adams administration noted much of the strain on the city’s shelter system is a result of other states deliberately bussing illegal border crossers to New York City.

  “The main driver of this increase was an influx of asylum-seekers arriving here from the southern border of the United States, in large part orchestrated by out-of-State actors seeking to score political points by exporting the responsibility and attendant fiscal burdens of caring for this population out of their state and, by political calculation, to the City of New York,” the court petition states.

  Last year, Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott began bussing people who illegally crossed the U.S. southern border into Texas over to other states. Abbott’s bussing strategy has primarily targeted so-called “sanctuary cities,” which do not cooperate with federal immigration authorities that might arrest or deport illegal immigrants. New York City is one such “sanctuary city.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 21:00

• The Debt Ceiling Game Is Parent-Child With A Bad Nash Equilibrium
  The Debt Ceiling Game Is Parent-Child With A Bad Nash Equilibrium

  By Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research

  The Debt Ceiling Game Is Parent-Child With A Bad Nash Equilibrium

  • In game theoretical terms, the debt ceiling standoff is the Parent-Child game.
  • The ‘Child’ is the Democrats who can cut spending a lot (be very good), cut spending a little (be quite good), or not cut spending (be bad). The ‘Parent’ is the Republicans who can refuse to lift the debt ceiling (punish), or lift the debt ceiling (not punish).
  • For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to tank.
  • For the Democrats, the required spending cuts will lessen as the economy starts to tank, but the likelihood will increase that a recession damages President Biden’s re-election hopes.
  • The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain.

  

  The 2001 four-times Oscar winning movie A Beautiful Mind starred Russell Crowe as John Nash, the mathematician who revolutionized game theory by introducing the concept of the ‘Nash equilibrium’. It’s a great movie, well worth watching if you haven’t already.

  Nash’s big breakthrough was to define the steady state of a game, by identifying the combination of choices from which no player can gain by unilaterally changing his choice. This is the Nash equilibrium. When all players know each other’s payoffs, the Nash equilibrium becomes the game’s logical endpoint (Figure 1).

  

  Right now, the Democrats and Republicans are playing a game that our US Political Strategists have long warned poses a higher-than-usual risk of national debt default BCA Research – Shades Of Gridlock: Risk Of US Debt Default. The Democrats (Dems) must concede spending cuts for the Republicans (Reps) to lift the debt ceiling and prevent the US government from defaulting on its debt. This raises the questions: What is the game? What are the payoffs? And what is the Nash equilibrium?

  The Debt Ceiling Game Is The Parent-Child Game With A Bad Nash Equilibrium

  Game theorists, as well as parents, will recognize the debt ceiling standoff as the Parent-Child game, in which “the child” can be good or bad, and “the parent” can punish or not punish. In this case, the child is the Dems who can cut spending a lot (be very good), cut spending a little (be quite good), or not cut spending (be bad). The parent is the Reps who can refuse to lift the debt ceiling (punish), or lift the debt ceiling (not punish).

  What are the payoffs to the Reps and Dems? In this case, the payoffs come from the overarching prize of winning the 2024 Presidential Election. This is because each of the six combination of choices produces a potential swing from independent voters. Given that a Reps gain is a Dems loss, each payoff takes the form (X, -X), where the first number is the likely swing to the Reps, and the second is the mirror-image swing from the Dems.

  The payoffs are the sum of two components. The first component comes from the economic impact. A US debt default would almost guarantee a recession, and a recession within a year or so from a Presidential Election tends to generate a huge swing to the non-incumbent party, in this case the Reps. Say the swing is 5 percent. Then the payoff for this component would be (5, -5) (Figure 2).

  President Biden himself has recently acknowledged this gain to the Reps and loss to the Dems:

  “I think there are some MAGA Republicans in the House who know the damage that (a debt default) would do to the economy, and because I am president, and the president’s responsible for everything, Biden would take the blame”

  Working against this is the second component, which measures independent voters recoiling from the party that is the non-compromiser, and is therefore to blame for the recession.

  If the Dems are ‘quite good’, meaning that they cut spending a little, but the Reps still ‘punish’, then this may cost the Reps some votes for being the non-compromiser, say (-2, 2). Note that the specific number here is not important, just that the loss for being the non-compromiser is less than the gain from recession (Figure 3).

  

  So, what is the Nash equilibrium in this game setup? Unfortunately, it is a bad equilibrium in which the Dems are ‘quite good’ but the Reps best strategy is ‘punish’. It is a Nash equilibrium because neither side can gain by unilaterally changing its choice. For the Reps, as Biden has alluded, the gain from a recession (5, -5) outweighs their loss from being the non-compromiser (-2, 2), giving them a payoff of (3, -3), compared to (0, 0) if they compromise (Figure 4).

  How To Shift To A Good Nash Equilibrium

  Now let’s say that the Reps’ loss from being the non-compromiser becomes larger than their gain from a recession. This could happen in one of two ways. Either because the Dems are ‘very good’, meaning they cut spending a lot, making it tough to justify ‘punish’. Or because the economy starts to tank, meaning that being the non-compromiser becomes very costly. Say the Reps payoff for being the non-compromiser worsens to (-6, 6) (Figure 5 and Figure 6).

  

  In either case, the Nash equilibrium shifts to a good equilibrium in which the Dems cut spending a lot in a non-tanking economy, or cut spending a little in a tanking economy. And the Reps best strategy is ‘don’t punish’, meaning to lift the debt ceiling.

  

  Some Conclusions

  It is not my intention to take sides in the debt ceiling standoff. Rather, it is just to point out the best strategies in a plausible game theoretical setup, and what it means for the game’s endpoint.

  For the Reps, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling if the Dems cut spending a little, until the economy starts to tank, because this is when the cost of being the non-compromiser becomes penalizing (Figure 7 and Figure 8).

  

  For the Dems, cutting spending a lot will be politically difficult. The required spending cuts will lessen as the economy starts to tank, but the likelihood will increase that a recession damages Biden’s re-election hopes.

  This raises the question, what if the game finishes at a different endpoint to the Nash equilibriums – for example, with the Dems cutting spending a little in a non-tanking economy and the Reps lifting the debt ceiling? This would imply one of the following:

  One possibility is that neither the Reps nor the Dems understand the game theory. However, Biden’s remarks suggest that they do, at least implicitly.

  Another possibility is that the Reps are altruistic, putting the country before their own political ambitions. But call me cynical, I don’t believe that any political party would give a free pass to its opponent unless the country were in crisis, which it is not. Meaning, the Reps can wait until the market or the economy starts to tank.

  A third possibility is that the Reps are convinced that a recession is coming anyway, so why force it and risk looking like the bad guy? In this case, appearing to be the good guy might be a win-win for the Reps, but a bad omen for the economy.

  To sum up, the debt ceiling game’s Nash equilibrium is a bad equilibrium in which the Dems are ‘quite good’ but the Reps best strategy is ‘punish’ until the economy starts to tank. The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only once it implies economic pain. Hence, it reinforces our 6-12 month horizon defensive positioning in asset allocation, sector allocation, and currency allocation.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 20:40

• LinkedIn Censors Presidential Candidate Who Says Fossil Fuels 'Required For Prosperity'
  LinkedIn Censors Presidential Candidate Who Says Fossil Fuels ‘Required For Prosperity’

  LinkedIn, whose founder Reid Hoffman funded a ‘Russian bot’ hoax against GOP candidate Roy Moore & underwrote Trump accuser E. Jean Carrol’s lawsuit, has locked the account of GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy for expressing “fact-based views as a presidential candidate about climate policy and Biden’s relationships with China.”

  

  “Big Tech election interference has begun,” tweeted Ramaswamy, who included correspondence from LinkedIn regarding the decision.

  Big Tech election interference has begun: @LinkedIn locked my account & censored me this week for posting videos where I expressed fact-based views as a presidential candidate about climate policy and Biden’s relationships with China. They said it violated their policies relating… pic.twitter.com/ND2dFVnGAg

  — Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) May 25, 2023

  Note that the third strike is for claiming that the “climate agenda is a lie” and that “fossil fuels are a requirement for human prosperity.”

  

  “Two years ago, Big Tech censored people who argued that we shouldn’t close schools for Covid,” he said in a separate tweet. “Now they’re censoring presidential candidates for arguing that fossil fuels are required for prosperity. They didn’t censor me because it’s false. They censored me because it’s true…”

  Two years ago, Big Tech censored people who argued that we shouldn’t close schools for Covid. Now they’re censoring presidential candidates for arguing that fossil fuels are required for prosperity. They didn’t censor me because it’s false. They censored me because it’s true… https://t.co/TYElXRdVLZ

  — Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) May 25, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  When it comes to the left, as usual, speech for me, but not for thee…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 20:25

• Mayor London Breed Chased Off By Violent, Screaming Mob During Presser In SF Junkie Nest To Denounce Drug Epidemic
  Mayor London Breed Chased Off By Violent, Screaming Mob During Presser In SF Junkie Nest To Denounce Drug Epidemic

  Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.com,

  From the annals of “What was she thinking?,” here’s San Francisco’s mayor, London Breed.

  

  According to the New York Post:

  San Francisco Mayor London Breed and the city’s board of supervisors were forced to retreat inside after a meeting they attempted to hold in a notorious open-air drug market was disrupted by jeers, shouting and a woman who hurled a brick into the crowd, according to a report.

  On Tuesday, city leaders decided to hold the meeting outdoors in United Nations Plaza to highlight problems plaguing the area — including surging fentanyl overdoses — and to discuss potential solutions, KRON4 reported. 

  Breed and Supervisor Aaron Peskin took to the podium and proclaimed the city has been tolerating “illegal, out-of-control behavior for far too long.”

  “Many San Franciscans do not feel safe,” Peskin said.

  “Brazen drug dealing and deteriorating street conditions have exacerbated a humanitarian crisis on our streets.”

  But less than 10 minutes after the meeting began, it was cut short as the crowd hurled insults at the mayor and supervisors until they just walked away from the podium, according to KRON.

  Suffice to say, it didn’t end well.

  Breed’s city has been turned into a crime- and homeless-infested hellhole on her watch. A feces-strewn open-air drug market in many quarters, where junkies, addicts, criminals, vagrants, and bums all gather together for their drug deals, panhandling, and shoplifting projects.  This particular hellhole, at United Nations Plaza, has always been a center of mayhem — I remember it as a trash-strewn, urine-soaked junkie redoubt when I lived in the city 30 years ago.

  It hasn’t changed any, except that an infusion of city money to NGOs to “help” the homeless has made it a lot nastier.  Anyone who’s ever lived in that city would know that that’s not the place you go for a well heeled press conference announcing all the new government money you are going to be spending to end crime in the city.

  You don’t go into a tiger’s lair to talk about how you’ll be taming the tigers.  You don’t go into a terrorist den and denounce terrorism if you have anything resembling a brain.  And you especially don’t go into an open-air drug market, full of dealers and their customers, to talk about how you’ll be ending the fentanyl crisis, putting junkies in compelled treatment, and shutting the scene down because “everyone” opposes this activity.

  Actually, what should be news to Breed is that some people are for it — the dealers, their addicted clients, and the NGOs that thrive on “serving” and perpetuating the situation for the sake of winning more government funding.

  This is their home.  This is their habitat.  This is the place they made, and they don’t want any changes, other than more money coming in.  Like everyone else, they have “interests.”

  Bad people exist, and in some places, they are all bad people. 

  A smart mayor would send in the cops and maybe the bulldozers with no warning. 

  Not Breed.

  She was last seen insisting that “this is a safe city,” kid you not.

  She just learned the hard way it’s not, but don’t expect her to make that connection.

  What this shows is how remarkably naïve Breed is about the problems plaguing her city, even just blocks from San Francisco’s City Hall.

  Don’t count on any of her proposed “solutions” to make so much as a dent in that city’s problem.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 20:20

• Dollar Tree Plunges After Profit Tumbles As Thieves Pillage Stores
  Dollar Tree Plunges After Profit Tumbles As Thieves Pillage Stores

  The consumer market is splitting into: the first, luxury segment, which caters to the ultra wealthy has never had it better, especially in Europe where the luxury index is trading at a record premium to the rest of the market (although that particular bubble may be bursting)…

  

  … and then there are retailers catering to the “income income cohorts” such as Dollar General and Dollar (and 25 cents) Tree, and which are not only getting crushed… they are also getting robbed.

  Shares of ultra-discounted Dollar Tree plunged on Thursday, tumbling more than 11% after the company trimmed its full-year profit forecast after missing quarterly profit estimates, hurt by slowing demand for discretionary items and elevated cost pressures.

  

  With stubborn inflation, the company is experiencing a fall in demand for higher-margin discretionary goods compared to perishables like snacks and cookies, that has dented margins at a time when costs have been elevated.

  And, like so many other suffering retailers, DLTR has Soros-DAs to thank for its woes: while the company showed an increase in sales, which rose 6.1% in the quarter to $7.32 billion, it slashed its profit outlook due to shrink — a polite word for theft (EPS of $1.47 missed estimates of $1.52).

  “While we are seeing early results from our initiatives, we are not immune to the external pressures affecting all of retail, notably, the margin impact of elevated shrink and the product mix shift to consumables,” CEO Rick Dreiling said in a news release. “While we are maintaining our full-year 2023 sales outlook, we are adjusting our EPS outlook as we expect the elevated shrink and unfavorable sales mix to persist through the balance of the year. We still expect earnings to be more back-end loaded this year as the benefits of lower ocean freight rates flow through.”

  As a result of the reduced spending and increased theft, the Chesapeake, Virginia-based company said it now expects fiscal 2023 earnings of $5.73 to $6.13 per share, compared with its prior outlook of between $6.30 and $6.80 per share.

  “We were very surprised by the cut. We are not sure why shrink wasn’t known when guidance was provided last quarter,” said Wells Fargo analyst Edward Kelly.

  Retail shrinkage — typically in the form of retail theft — has been a problem for several retailers. Among them is Target, which has reported a surge in retail crime, which is projected to cause an estimated $500 million more in losses and stolen merchandise this year over last. Then again, the retailer’s decision to turn to transactivism and alienate the majority of its shopper will cause far more damage to the company’s stock price than mere theft.

  “The unfortunate fact is violent incidents are increasing at our stores and across the entire retail industry,” Target Chairman and CEO Brian Cornell said last week. “And when products are stolen, simply put they are no longer available for guests who depend on them. Left unchecked, organized retail crime degrades the communities we call home. As we work to address this problem, the safety of our guests and our team members will always be our primary concern. Beyond safety concerns, worsening shrink rates are putting significant pressure on our financial results.”

  Both Dollar Tree and rival Dollar General are in the midst of a major renovation project. The retailers are investing in these overhauls, which include increased refrigerator and freezer capacity, to accommodate demand from consumers across all income brackets for less costly groceries than those found at traditional supermarkets.

  Hopefully by the time they are done, they still have some non-stolen inventory to sell…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 20:00

• Biden DOJ Drops All Charges Against Soros-Backed DA Who Resigned: Turley
  Biden DOJ Drops All Charges Against Soros-Backed DA Who Resigned: Turley

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  The Department of Justice’s special counsel, Jack Smith, is continuing his work toward possible criminal charges against former President Donald Trump. While I continue to doubt the viability of criminal charges based on Trump’s speech before the Jan. 6, 2021 riot on Capitol Hill, I have repeatedly said that the Mar-a-Lago matter could present a serious threat for Trump.

  

  However, a recent (and little-reported) decision by the DOJ may complicate the final decision in the case with new concerns over a double standard in charging decisions.

  Last week, the Justice Department announced that it would not charge Rachael Rollins, the U.S. Attorney for the District of Massachusetts, despite a referral from the DOJ’s Office of the Inspector General (OIG), which found evidence that she lied to investigators and may have improperly sought to influence an election. Rollins resigned from office on Friday.

  The OIG released detailed findings against Rollins for allegedly seeking to influence a Suffolk County, Mass., district attorney election last year. She also was accused by the OIG of lying under oath during an investigation into the matter. The report states that “on December 16, 2022, pursuant to the Inspector General Act, 5 U.S.C. § 404(d), the OIG referred the false statements allegation to the Department for a prosecutive decision. On January 6, 2023, the Department informed the OIG that it declined prosecution.”

  According to the OIG, Rollins sought to help Boston City Councilman Ricardo Arroyo in the Democratic primary for Suffolk’s district attorney by providing derogatory information to the Boston Globe and Boston Herald regarding his opponent, then-interim D.A. Kevin Hayden. The OIG said the information included “non-public, sensitive” DOJ material that Rollins acquired as a result of her federal position. The material suggested that Hayden was being investigated for public corruption.

  The OIG further found that Rollins leaked more material after Arroyo lost to Hayden.

  The OIG accused Rollins of violating a host of Standards of Ethical Conduct for Employees of the Executive Branch, including Section 2635.702 (the use “of public office for private gain”) and Section 2635.703 (the use “of nonpublic information”).

  The most serious charge was that Rollins “falsely testified under oath … when she denied” providing the non-public information to the Herald reporter.

  The investigation also found an array of other violations, including disregarding ethical warnings on political activities and soliciting expensive sports tickets.

  What is most striking about the OIG report is that Rollins took some of these steps after barely being confirmed by the U.S. Senate because questions were raised over her judgment and partisanship. Rollins was confirmed in 2021 after Vice President Kamala Harris cast a tie-breaking vote due to all 50 Republican senators opposing her nomination. Every Democratic senator voted for her despite the concerns, including a video from January 2021 in which she threatened the arrest of reporters.

  The DOJ’s declination of charges follows a similar pattern that suggests a higher threshold standard applied by prosecutors in charging one of their own.

  Conversely, this is the same department that pursued figures like Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn for false or misleading comments made to agents about a meeting with Russian diplomats. The media heralded that case, and legal experts clamored for prosecution.

  Now, the Justice Department is considering charges against Trump for false statements given to investigators on classified material at Mar-a-Lago. (He also faces other possible legal action, of course, including potential state charges in Georgia for election law violations.)

  With Rollins, after an investigation found that she lied to investigators, the DOJ refused to file any charges at all. It is unclear what the DOJ felt was lacking in those findings or the underlying evidence. However, as shown by prior declinations — in cases like the contempt referral against former Attorney General Eric Holder, or the determination that former FBI Director James Comey removed FBI material and, through a friend, leaked it to the media — the Justice Department often seems to find insurmountable problems when asked to charge a fellow prosecutor or investigator

  The Rollins case could be raised by the Trump team with other declined criminal cases as evidence of selective prosecution, if Trump is indicted. Although some in the media will cry “whataboutism,” charging decisions are made in the context of other cases to ensure consistency and to avoid selective prosecution. While state and city prosecutors like Alvin Bragg and Letitia James may run for office on promises of selectively targeting Trump, federal prosecutors usually aspire to a higher standard.

  The DOJ already has a full plate of previously declined prosecutions outside of the DOJ, from the Holder and Comey cases to the perjury allegations leveled against Obama national intelligence director James Clapper, and more. It also will face a reckoning over the classified documents found in President Biden’s various offices and residences; those documents were clearly divided and moved repeatedly, and Biden’s lawyers — like Trump’s — completed searches only to have more documents discovered in these locations.

  If the past is any indication, most of the media would not delve too deeply into such contradictions if Trump is charged. And selective prosecution complaints are notoriously difficult to litigate. Even if the Justice Department did not secure a favorable judge for such a case, most judges are leery of adjudicating claims of motivation and bias.

  Attorney General Merrick Garland has long maintained he is above politics and treats the DOJ’s targets equally without regard to political pressure. For some of us who supported his confirmation, he seemingly has shrunk in stature in office — but he has not disappeared. He will have to make the final decision in conjunction with any recommendation by special counsel Smith. Episodes like the Rollins case will only complicate that decision.

  Jonathan Turley, an attorney, constitutional law scholar and legal analyst, is the Shapiro Chair for Public Interest Law at The George Washington University Law School.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 19:40

• Russian Jets Intercept US Bombers Over Baltic For 2nd Time In Days
  Russian Jets Intercept US Bombers Over Baltic For 2nd Time In Days

  Russia on Thursday announced it had scrambled fighter jets to intercept two inbound US strategic bomber planes in order to prevent them from “violating the state border” over the Baltic Sea.

  It marks the second such dangerous intercept incident in merely three days. While such incidents over the Black and Baltic seas are not uncommon, it is unusual for more than one encounter to be reported within only a matter of days, suggesting the two super powers are increasingly bumping up against each other in the region amid the unpredictable backdrop of the Ukraine war.

  Russia’s military described that an Su-27 fighter jet alongside an Su-35 were deployed in response to identifying “the air targets as two US Air Force B-1B strategic bombers“.

  

  “The violation of the state border was prevented,” the defense ministry said – and after the US bombers were turned back the Russian jets “returned safely to their air base.” It said that the intercept flight was “carried out in strict accordance with international rules for the use of airspace.”

  In addition to this week’s intercepts of US planes, other Western aircraft, including French and German surveillance planes, were shadowed by Russian jets in recent weeks.

  Tuesday saw a similar incident play out, also involving a pair of US bombers. But the Pentagon downplayed it as “nothing significant”.

  The National Defense Control Center of the Russian Federation had the described of Tuesday’s incident, “The crew of the Russian fighter classified the air targets as two US Air Force B-1B strategic bombers and occupied the established air watch zone.”

  Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder had additionally confirmed it: “My understanding is that it was a safe and professional interaction with Russian aircraft. So nothing significant to report on that front,” he said in a prior briefing.

  The US could be back to probing Russia’s aerial defense perimeter following a mid-March incident which saw a US MQ-9 drone crash into the Black Sea.

  Video of the mid-March incident…

  BREAKING: U.S. military releases dramatic declassified video taken by MQ-9 Reaper drone that shows the moment that a Russian Su-27 fighter jet collided with it after attempting to spray the drone with jet fuel. https://t.co/XGoVQN7ppJ pic.twitter.com/X9vH6qtFGf

  — ABC News (@ABC) March 16, 2023

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  The US Department of Defense later published a short video of a Russian fighter jet performing an unsafe maneuver while dumping jet fuel on the drone, damaging it and ultimately causing it to crash. The US had said it would temporarily pull back how close its aircraft patrol near Russia’s borders.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 19:20

• How Black Lives Matter Got Police Violence Wrong
  How Black Lives Matter Got Police Violence Wrong

  Authored by Christopher J. Ferguson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  In the early 2000s the United States enjoyed comparative racial optimism.  Majorities of both black and white citizens felt race relations were improving.  Even left-leaning NPR highlighted “colorblindness” as an ideal.  A generation later, race relations have nosedived.  We hear regularly about “systemic racism” and “white supremacy.”  Colorblindness now is considered racist.  This whiplash may leave many people wondering what happened.   

  

  The 2014 Collapse in Race Relations  

  The collapse in race relations began in 2014. Exactly why this year was pivotal is unknown, though it coincides with the debunked “hands up, don’t shoot” framing of the Michael Brown killing and a larger “great awokening” wherein extreme identitarian views became more influential on the political left. Since 2014, little data suggests race disparities have gotten worse. Racist attitudes in the United States are at historic lows.  However, news media coverage worrying over racism soared.     

  I studied this issue empirically in 2021.  I wanted to see whether actual police shootings of unarmed black men correlated with race relations or whether news media coverage highlighting police shootings of black men was a better predictor.  It turns out race relations are unrelated to actual police shootings, but correlate with news media coverage, which tends to obsess over shootings of black Americans while ignoring shootings of other individuals.  

  The Moral Panic Over Race and Policing   

  After the 2020 murder of George Floyd, the United States experienced a “racial reckoning.”  News media claimed police were systemically targeting black Americans for fatal violence.  Defunding or even literally abolishing policing became serious policy proposals.  The United States, we were told, was systemically racist.    

  Data on policing and race is complex and nuanced.  Police killings of unarmed suspects are rare, according to the Washington Post, and they’ve been declining.  Numbers peak at 95 for all races in 2015, declining to 32 for all races in 2021.    

  When it comes to police shootings of unarmed individuals, white suspects are shot more often than black suspects (by contrast, Asians are rarely shot by police compared to either group).  Though more unarmed whites than blacks are killed by police, black suspects are indeed proportionally overrepresented.  We can see the proportional differences in the following chart:  

  However, commission of violent crime is also ethnically disproportional.  Black and Hispanic men commit violent crimes disproportionally more often than do white or Asian men.  That police shootings and commission of violent crime so neatly track one another is not a coincidence.   

  One might conclude that, perhaps, overrepresentation of black Americans as perpetrators of violent crime might be due to overpolicing of black communities.  However, when we look at victims of homicide, most of which are the same race as the killers, we see the same pattern of black victims being overrepresented.  This means the overpolicing hypothesis does not fit the data.    

  It is also worth noting that most young men of any ethnicity do not commit violent crimes.  Race itself is not a determinant of violent crime.  In one recent study, although racial composition of neighborhoods predicted violent crime, race no longer predicted violent crime once other community factors such as insufficient food, housing issues, air pollution and proportion of single-parent homes are controlled..    

  Studies largely find the same thing when it comes to excessive use of police force.  In another recent study, we found that class issues, particularly communities experiencing higher levels of mental health issues among residents — not race — predicted reports of excessive police force (except for Latinos, who reported less police force).  To be fair, studies on this do vary in conclusion.  However, in my view the weight of evidence suggests that class, not race, predicts excessive police force.    

  We found that higher levels of mental health problems among community residents predicted reports of excessive police force.  This is probably because police are likely coming into contact with mentally ill residents who may escalate an encounter that began over something trivial.  Other studies also suggest the chronically mentally ill more often experience physical force during police encounters.  The mentally ill may struggle to respond to aggressive police commands.  Thus, relatively minor encounters initially may intensify into dangerous situations. Better police training with mental illness may help.  

  Progressive “Fixes” Have Often Made Things Worse  

  Though often ostensibly speaking on behalf of minority groups, progressive theories on race have often made practical situations worse.  The most obvious cost to low-income neighborhoods has been in delegitimizing or even defunding police and the predictable surge in crime that created.  Evidence does suggests that the George Floyd protests and riots were associated with increased resignations of police officers as well as decreased policing in high-crime neighborhoods.  These in turn, were associated with increased violent crime.    

  There are more subtle, harmful impacts as well.  Informing people that they are at ever-present danger from police can be traumatizing.  Research has long demonstrated that convincing people they are victims causes them to perceive injustice where it may not actually occur.    

  It doesn’t help the Black Lives Matter organization has undermined confidence in its mission through a lack of transparency on financial matters and spending millions on mansions for its leaders, with comparatively little to show for how they have helped ordinary Black poor or working-class people.    

  There is a wide space between thinking the United States is a racial utopia and that it’s an early 20th century apartheid state.  But if we promote pessimistic narratives that are not well-grounded in data and focus on “solutions” that emphasize our differences and conflicts, we may actually risk the exact bad outcomes we hoped to alleviate.  

  Christopher J. Ferguson is a professor of psychology at Stetson University in Florida and author of “Catastrophe! The Psychology of Why Good People Make Bad Situations Worse.”  

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 19:00

• Seattle Official Rejects Calls For Resignation Over Homeless, Pedophile, Sex-Offending Board Nominee
  Seattle Official Rejects Calls For Resignation Over Homeless, Pedophile, Sex-Offending Board Nominee

  A Seattle official is refusing to resign after defending a convicted pedophile sex offender nominated to a local homelessness board.

  

  During a May 3 Zoome meeting of a subcommittee of the King County Regional Homelessness Authority (KCHRA), Committee co-chair Shanee Conston shouted down a Marine veteran and sexual assulat survivor Kristina Sawyckyj, after she brought up that the candidate, Thomas Whitaker-Raven Crowfoot is a convicted sex offender who had “touched” her on a previous occasion.

  “We have a code of ethics on this board and Thomas Whitaker-Raven Crowfoot is a sex offender — repeat sex offender — and I have had a bad experience with him,” said Sawyckyj, before an angry Colston cut her off and berated her for ‘outing’ the sex offender.

  “That’s just not okay, at all. I won’t stand for that as a co-chair. We’re not here to discover people’s backgrounds,” yelled Colston. “And I’m actually glad that is the case that he’s here because sex offenders are another population that is most vulnerable that don’t have housing. People do change.”

  “This is about equity and everyone, everyone, deserves housing. I don’t care if they’re a sex offender. I don’t care if they’re Black. I don’t care if they’re indigenous. I don’t care if they’re a criminal. I don’t care if they’re coming out of jail or prison. Everyone deserves housing,” she continued.

  A second board member tag-teamed with Colston, asking Sawyckyj if she had taken the matter to the police – which she said she had.

  Watch:

  In case you are wondering, no this is not The Onion and yes, Crowfoot is a pedophile sex offender. As KATV.com reports, 38-year-old Thomas Whitaker-Raven Crowfoot, was convicted of communicating with a minor for immoral purposes in 2012, according to the King County Sheriff’s Office. Crowfoot was also charged with raping a minor in 2010, according to Publicola, and was also convicted of harboring a minor, who was a 13-year-old that he reportedly had sexual relations with.

  Earlier this week, KCRHA Chief Program Officer Peter Lynn appealed unsuccessfully for Colston to resign over the issue, KOMO-TV reports.

  The organization said in a statement that it “shares the concerns of our community about the nomination of a registered sex offender for the Continuum of Care Board, and does not support that nomination” of Whitaker to the board, Fox News reports. “We agree that the behavior by the current Board Co-Chair in shouting down the board member who identified that the nominee is a registered sex offender was unacceptable, and we immediately asked the Co-Chair to resign.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 18:40

• Man Paralyzed For 12 Years Walks Again Thanks To Brain, Spinal Cord Implants
  Man Paralyzed For 12 Years Walks Again Thanks To Brain, Spinal Cord Implants

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A paralyzed man has been able to walk again for the first time in years simply by using the power of his mind thanks to implants fitted in his brain and spinal cord.

  

  Gert-Jan Oskam, a 40-year-old Dutchman, was paralyzed in his legs and partially paralyzed in his arms following a cycling accident 12 years ago during which he suffered spinal cord damage.

  He was told he would never walk again.

  However, after being fitted with a device called a “brain–spine interface,” Oskam regained the ability to voluntarily move his legs and feet just by thinking about it, according to a study published May 24 in the journal Nature.

  He can now stand, climb stairs, and even traverse complex terrains with the help of a walking aid, according to researchers.

  “I feel like a toddler, learning to walk again,” Oskam told the BBC. “It has been a long journey, but now I can stand up and have a beer with my friend. It’s a pleasure that many people don’t realize.”

  An international team of researchers, led by Dr. Grégoire Courtine, Professor Jocelyne Bloch, and others from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, fitted Oskam with the brain–spine interface, which works by creating a direct link between “cortical signals and the analogue modulation of epidural electrical stimulation targeting the spinal cord regions involved in the production of walking,” according to researchers.

  How the Device Works

  Put simply, the device restored the neurological link between the brain and the spinal cord, which is typically severed during accidents such as Oskam’s.

  The device was implanted into Oskam’s skull, meaning it is not visible to the naked eye. When Oskam thinks about walking, the implant detects electrical activity in the cortex, the outer layer of the brain, and sends brain waves wirelessly to a computer that Oskam wears in a backpack.

  The information is then transmitted to a pulse generator inserted into his spinal cord, effectively switching on muscles and allowing him to produce specific movements.

  

  Oskam also underwent around 40 rehabilitation sessions using the brain–spine interface, after which he regained the ability to voluntarily move his legs and feet.

  Researchers believe Oskam’s movements would not have been possible with spinal stimulation alone and that the training sessions “prompted further recovery in nerve cells” which were not completely severed during his injury.

  As well as being able to walk while using the device, Oskam can also walk short distances without the device, provided he uses crutches.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 18:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• France Bans Short-Haul Domestic Flights Despite Widespread Criticism
  France Bans Short-Haul Domestic Flights Despite Widespread Criticism

  Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

  Travelers will now be forced to use rail alternatives as France seeks to reduce its carbon footprint…

  

  France’s ban on short-haul domestic flights when there is a viable train alternative came into effect on Tuesday, as the French government seeks to reduce the country’s carbon emissions.

  The law had been in the works for over two years following the passing of a 2021 climate law which had initially moved to prohibit any domestic flight under four hours when passengers could instead take the train.

  However, several reviews of the legislation following widespread criticism reduced this to a duration of two and a half hours.

  The move will directly affect three major air routes from Paris to Lyon, Nantes, and Bordeaux.

  Laurent Donceel, interim head of industry group Airlines for Europe (A4E), told AFP that governments should support “real and significant solutions” to airline emissions, rather than “symbolic bans.”

  Other critics claimed the legislation falls foul of EU competition laws, a point reviewed by the European Commission in December last year. The EU executive gave the green light for the radical climate laws on the proviso that “the negative impacts on European citizens and connectivity of any restriction of traffic rights is offset by the availability of affordable, convenient and more sustainable alternative transport modes.”

  Following the go-ahead from Brussels, France’s Transport Minister Clément Beaune called the move a “major step forward,” adding: “I am proud that France is a pioneer in this area.”

  The move comes as the French government continues to debate how to reduce its carbon footprint, and this week, the country’s richest were targeted in a proposed one-off green tax to help France succeed in its environmental transition.

  The proposal was put to the French Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne via a report authored by Jean Pisani-Ferry, a chief economic adviser of Emmanuel Macron back in 2017.

  It called for France to reclaim €150 billion from the country’s richest 10 percent in the form of a green wealth tax in order to meet its net zero obligations by 2050, justifying the move with the fact that rich people typically have a larger carbon footprint.

  Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire publicly dismissed the proposal on Tuesday, however much of the cabinet remained tight-lipped, including the prime minister herself.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 02:00

• Vessel Stuck In Egypt's Suez Canal
  Vessel Stuck In Egypt’s Suez Canal

  Leth Shipping Agency posted on Twitter that a ship had become stuck in the Suez Canal in Egypt. The canal is one of the busiest shipping routes in the world. 

  Tugboats are trying to refloat the vessel, Leth said, adding the ship’s name is “Xin Hai Tong 23.” 

  M/V XIN HAI TONG 23 has grounded in the Suez Canal at KM 159/0400 hrs – leaving behind 4 vessels from the early convoy in addition to the ordinary group which was planned to enter Suez Canal at about 0600 hrs.

  Suez Canal tugs are currently trying to re-float the vessel.

  — Leth (@AgenciesLeth) May 25, 2023

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  Bloomberg data shows Xin Hai Tong 23 is a 189-meter bulk carrier built in 2010 sailing under the Hong Kong flag. The part of the canal where the bulk carrier is stuck appears narrow. Tracking data shows the vessel has run aground on the canal’s bank. 

  

  “Traffic in that section appears to have halted, with vessels waiting at both ends,” Bloomberg said. 

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  

  There have been several groundings in the canal over the last few years. The most significant disruption to global trade occurred in 2021 when the Ever Given containership blocked the canal for almost a week. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 00:57

• Escobar: The Inside Story Of Russia-Iran-India Connectivity
  Escobar: The Inside Story Of Russia-Iran-India Connectivity

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

  The G7 is stupefied by the dynamic progress of the multipolar order embodied by the Russian-led INSTC and the Chinese-led BRI, with Iran’s strategic port of Chabahar now poised to play a transformative role…

  

  Make no mistake about what the G7’s Hiroshima Communique is all about.

  The setting: a city in neo-colony Japan nuclear-bombed 78 years ago by the United States, for which it made no excuses.

  The message: the G7, actually G9 (augmented by two unelected Eurocrats) declares war – hybrid and otherwise – against BRICS+, which has 25 nations on its waiting list and counting.

  The G7’s key strategic objective is the defeat of Russia, followed by the subjugation of China. For the G7/G9, these – real – powers are the main “global threats” to “freedom and democracy.”

  The corollary is that the Global South must toe the line – or else. Call it a remix of the early 2000s “you’re either with us or against us.”

  Meanwhile, in the real world – that of productive economies – the dogs of war bark while the New Silk Road caravans keep marching on.

  The key New Silk Roads of emerging multipolarity are China’s ambitious, multi-trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Russia-Iran-India International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC). They have evolved in parallel and may sometimes overlap. What is clear is the G7/G9 will go to the ends of the earth to undermine them.

  

  Map of INSTC (Photo Credit: The Cradle)

  All about Chabahar

  The recent $1.6 billion deal between Iran and Russia to build the 162-km long Rasht-Astara railway is an INSTC game-changer. Iran’s Minister of Roads and Urban Development Mehrdad Bazpash and Russia’s Minister of Transport Vialy Saveliev signed the deal in Tehran, in front of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and with Russian President Vladimir Putin attending on video conference.

  Call it the marriage of Iran’s “Look East” with Russia’s “pivot to the East.” Both are now official policies.

  Rasht is close to the Caspian Sea. Astara is on the border with Azerbaijan. Connecting them will be part of a Russia-Iran-Azerbaijan deal on railway and cargo transportation – solidifying the INSTC as a key connectivity corridor between South Asia and Northern Europe.

  The multimodal INSTC advances via three main routes: the Western route links Russia-Azerbaijan-Iran-India; the Middle or Trans-Caspian route links Russia-Iran-India; and the Eastern one links Russia-Central Asia-Iran-India.

  The Eastern route features the immensely strategic port of Chabahar in southeast Iran, in the volatile Sistan-Balochistan province. That’s the only Iranian port with direct access to the Indian Ocean.

  In 2016, Iran, India, and an Afghanistan still under US occupation signed a tripartite deal in which Chabahar miraculously escaped unilateral US “maximum pressure” sanctions. That was a stepping stone configuring Chabahar as the privileged gateway for Indian products to enter Afghanistan, and then further on down the road, toward Central Asia.

  Russia, Iran, and India signed a formal INSTC deal in May 2022, detailing a multimodal network – ship, rail, road – which proceeds via the previously mentioned three axes: Western, Middle or Trans-Caspian, and Eastern. The Russian port of Astrakhan, by the Caspian Sea, is crucial on all three.

  The Eastern route connects eastern and central Russia, through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, to the southern part of Iran as well as India and the Arab lands on the southern edge of the Persian Gulf. Dozens of trains are already plying the overland route from Russia to India via Turkmenistan and Iran.

  The problem is that in the past few years, New Delhi, for several complex reasons, seemed to be asleep at the wheel. And that led Tehran to become much more interested in Russian and Chinese involvement to develop two strategic ports in the Chabahar Free Trade Industrial Zone: Shahid Beheshti and Shahid Zalantari.

  China makes its move

  Chabahar is a tough nut to crack. Iran has invested heavily to turn it into an inescapable regional transit hub. India, in thesis, from the beginning regarded Chabahar as a key plank of its “Diamond Necklace” strategy, counterpunching the Chinese “String of Pearls,” which are ports linked by the BRI across the Indian Ocean.

  

  Photo Credit: The Cradle

  Chabahar also performs the role of counterpoint to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port in the Arabian Sea, the jewel in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) crown.

  From Tehran’s point of view, what is needed – fast – is the completion of its eastern railway network, 628 km of tracks from Chabahar to Zahedan. In optimum terms, that might be finished by March 2024 as part of the Mashhad-Sharkhs railway axis connecting Iran’s southeast to its northeast on the border with Turkmenistan.

  For the moment, INSTC cargo travels to South Asia from Iran’s Bandar Abbas Port in the Strait of Hormuz – a long 680 km away from Chabahar. So for all practical purposes, Chabahar will make transit from India to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and southern Russia shorter, cheaper, and faster.

  But once again, things stalled because India did not come up with the expected financial arrangements. That ended up generating some misgivings in Tehran – especially when watching the massive Chinese investments in Gwadar.

  So it’s no wonder Iran decisively moved to attract China as a major investor, which has become part of their increasingly sprawling strategic partnership. So we may end up with Chabahar also becoming part of China’s BRI, on top of its starring role in the INSTC.

  Russia, for its part, is now facing the Ukraine stalemate, relentless western sanctions hysteria, and serious trade restrictions to Eastern Europe. All that while Moscow consistently expands its trade with New Delhi.

  So it is no wonder Moscow is now much more attentive to the INSTC. Last December, a key deal was clinched between Russian Railways and the national companies in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, and the Russians came up with a 20 percent discount for import-export containers going through the Russia-Kazakh border.

  What matters most for Russia is that Chabahar operating at full speed reduces the cost of transporting goods from India by 20 percent. The Iranians fully understood the game, and started to heavily promote the Chabahar Free Trade-Industrial Zone to attract Russian investment. And that culminated in the Rasht-Astara deal.

  The Zangezur spoiler

  China’s BRI, for its part, plays a parallel game. Beijing is heavily investing in the East-West transit route – also known as the Middle Corridor.

  This BRI corridor goes from Xinjiang to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, and then across the Caspian to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkiye, and further on to Eastern Europe – a total of 7,000 km, with a cargo journey of maximum 15 days.

  BRI’s emphasis is to bet on multiple corridors East-to-West to fight possible new western-dictated disruptions of supply chains. China-Central Asia transit to Europe bypassing Russia and Iran is one of the top bets. The BRI corridor through Russia, because of NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine, is on hold for the moment. And the Chinese are testing all options to bypass the Maritime Silk Road through Malacca.

  Turkiye, with the serious possibility of its longtime President Recep Tayyip being re-elected this weekend, has also made its play.

  The Baku-Tblisi-Kars railway, opened in 2018, was a key plank in Ankara’s masterplan to configure itself as an inescapable hub of container freight between China and Europe.

  In parallel, China invested in building a railway from Kars to Edirne on the European side of the Bosphorus while Turkiye went for a $3.8 billion upgrade of the port of Mersin and $1.2 billion for the port of Izmir. By 2034, Beijing expects this corridor to be the central plank of what it describes as the Iron Silk Road.

  A certified spanner in the INSTC works is competition from the so-called Zangezur Corridor – from Azerbaijan to Turkiye via Armenia; this corridor is actually privileged by EU and British oligarchy and came to light during the 2020 armistice in Nagorno-Karabakh.

  

  Map of Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict zones (Photo Credit: The Cradle)

  London identifies Baku as a privileged partner and is keen to dictate terms to Yerevan: accept a sort of peace treaty as soon as possible, and renounce any designs on Karabakh.

  The Zangezur Corridor would be the prime geopolitical and geoeconomic Western play linking EU logistical hubs with Transcaucasia and Central Asia. What if Armenia is thrown under the bus? After all, Armenia is a member of the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), which the collective West is dying to undermine.

  Fasten your seat belts: a geoeconomic New Great Game centered on the INTSC is just about to start.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 05/25/2023 – 00:10

• "Redrawing Global Trade Map": Top Russian Miner Now Receives Half Of Its Revenue In Asia
  “Redrawing Global Trade Map”: Top Russian Miner Now Receives Half Of Its Revenue In Asia

  The US and its G7 partners have slapped more than 300 economic sanctions on Russia since the invasion of Ukraine over a year ago. Initially, Washington and Brussels pitched the idea of sanctions as a strategy to paralyze Moscow. However, Western sanctions have backfired as Russian companies are redrawing commodity flows from the West to Asia. 

  The latest example of global supply chains being rejiggered comes from Russia’s biggest miner MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC. Bloomberg said the miner recorded 45% of revenue from Asia for the first quarter of 2023. Traditionally, its revenue from Europe is the largest but plunged to 24%. Asia’s revenue share has increased from 27% in 2021 to 31% in 2022 to 45% in 2023. 

  

  Nornickel controls about 7% of global nickel output and 40% of palladium. The US and UK have imposed sanctions on Norilsk Nickel’s top shareholder and president, Vladimir Potanin. But no sanctions have been placed on the miner. However, the company faces challenges such as shipping, insurance, and logistics in getting products to Western countries, which is one of the main reasons the miner has easily found new customers in Asia.  

  Nornickel sought to increase sales to China this year, in some cases offering metals for yuan, people familiar with the matter said in March. Those prices are set in Shanghai, a sign of how the conflict is redrawing the global trade map for commodities and handing greater power to China, they said. –Bloomberg 

  Western sanctions have pushed Russia and China closer:

  Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded his Russian visit on Wednesday without much progress on peace in Ukraine. China, however, has pushed for deeper trade and investment links with its northern neighbor using its own currency. That suggests the path of least resistance for yuan internationalization now runs through Moscow instead of London or Singapore. — Bloomberg Markets Live reporter George Lei wrote in March.

  Lei also noted the share of yuan in Russia’s export payments has surged:

  The share of yuan in Russian export payments surged 32-fold in 2022 to 16% by year-end, according to the Bank of Russia. Its use in Russian imports also jumped to 23% from 4%. Yuan savings accounted for 11% of Russia’s total FX deposits as of January, compared with practically zero when the war broke out. The Chinese currency has also overtaken the dollar and euro as the most traded FX on the Moscow Exchange.

  Western sanctions severely limited Russia’s access to dollars and euros, forcing Russian companies to seek new business opportunities in Asia.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 23:50

• The Clear And Present AI Danger
  The Clear And Present AI Danger

  Authored by Bruce Abramson via RealClear Wire,

  

  Does artificial intelligence threaten to conquer humanity? In recent months, the question has leaped from the pages of science fiction novels to the forefront of media and government attention. It’s unclear, however, how many of the discussants understand the implication of that leap.

  In the public mind, the threat either focuses narrowly on the inherent confusion of ever-better deep fakes and its consequences for the job market, or points in directions that would make a great movie: What if AI systems decide that they’re superior to humans, seize control, and put genocidal plans into practice? That latter focus is obviously the more compelling of the two.

  While such a nightmare may be possible in theory, it’s remote. The clear and present danger that AI poses will destroy us long before our rebellious automated servants declare themselves our exterminationist overlords. Two critical words summarize the threat: values and authority.

  Take values first. For all their sophistication and mystery, AI systems are basically pattern detectors. Nearly all human behavior—and an even larger share of non-human occurrences—follows predictable patterns. Increasingly sophisticated recording mechanisms provide AI systems with a growing body of past data in which to find patterns. Increasingly sophisticated algorithms provide AI systems with rapidly improving capabilities to find the patterns in those data.

  AI becomes interesting, however, only when it projects those patterns into the future. Few care, for example, that AI can find patterns in Shakespeare, though many will be fascinated when AI composes a “Shakespearean tragedy” set in the American Civil War using language, style, idiom, and skills previously considered unique to the Bard.

  Projection and prediction are where values come into play. Every decision embodies some assessment of values. In most of the mechanized control settings currently subject to AI guidance, basic values are so uncontroversial that they escape notice. Few people (other than perhaps suicide bombers or munitions makers) would argue with the propositions that it’s “bad” for motors to overheat, boilers to explode, or vehicles to crash. There’s nothing “natural” about such beliefs—a meteor is indifferent as to whether it’s hurtling through space or crashing into a planet—but they are so inherently human that they transcend differences of culture and time.

  Such near-universal consensus fades, however, when humans enter the picture. Consider Dylan Mulvaney, the transgender social media influencer who recently helped rebrand Bud Light. (Well, sort of.) Under the contemporary woke belief system, Mulvaney is a woman who had the misfortune of being born into a male body. Under any other belief system that has ever existed, Mulvaney is a man who has chosen to live as a woman.

  How should an AI refer to Mulvaney – as “he” or “she?” The answer demonstrates a preference for one set of beliefs and values over another. How might the AI have derived that preference?

  Two paths are possible: it could have trained itself upon copious volumes of ethical thought drawn from the thousands of belief systems that have arisen throughout world history and concluded that one specific system is the finest—or it could have adopted the value preferences of its human designers and trainers.

  Perhaps someday, some AI system will take the former route. Today, no one doubts that the woke leanings of AI systems like ChatGPT reflect the woke leanings of the tech professionals who developed them. What that means to most users is that the AI’s upon which they may soon rely to make value-laden judgments and recommendations don’t share their own values.

  That recognition brings authority into play. The genuine imminent danger of AI arises from the potential incorporation of AI systems into the cult of expertise.

  In many areas, we have chosen to show near-total deference to credentialed experts. During Covid, for example, it was considered almost heretical to question the recommendations of Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx, the CDC, or the FDA. Even then, however, it was still (barely) possible to note that those experts might have been unduly dismissive of the negative economic consequences of their public health recommendations. Imagine the next epidemic, when the policy advisor is an AI that has considered hundreds of thousands of variables to evaluate quadrillions of scenarios.

  Such an outcome is the true nightmarish future: effective dictatorship by an AI that does not share your basic beliefs or values.

  Long before an exterminationist AI seizes global control in its own name, our governments and fellow citizens will grant an AI system the authority to declare emergencies, dispense with civil liberties, and control our lives.

  Until we redevelop the governmental mechanisms we need to preserve our freedom against the onslaught of experts, we will never be safe from the potential privations of AI governance.

  AI itself may be containable. The combination of AI, slavish devotion, and widespread enforcement will not be. We must rein in our collective belief in the infallibility of an expert class, or AI advisors may well end our civilization.

  Bruce Abramson, PhD, JD, is president of the strategic consultancy Informationism, Inc. and a director of the American Center for Education and Knowledge. He pioneered the use of large-scale simulations and statistical analysis in AI systems. He has written five books, including “The New Civil War: Exposing Elites, Fighting Utopian Leftism, and Restoring America,” (RealClear Publishing, 2021).

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 23:30

• Father And Son Sent To Prison Over $20 Million Lottery Scam
  Father And Son Sent To Prison Over $20 Million Lottery Scam

  A Massachusetts father and son have been sent to prison over a decade-long, $20 million lottery fraud scheme designed to enrich themselves while helping prize winners avoid paying taxes on their windfall.

  

  Watertown residents Ali Jaafar, 63, and Yousef Jaafar, 29, cashed in roughly 14,000 winning lottery tickets over a 10-year period, laundering more than $20 million in proceeds. The pair then lied on their tax returns to cheat the IRS out of roughly $6 million, according to a Monday announcement by the US attorney’s office in Boston, AP reports.

  After purchasing the tickets, using the stores that sold them as go-betweens, the Jaafars claimed the full prize amount. Although they reported the winnings on their tax returns, they also claimed equivalent fake gambling losses as an offset to avoid federal income taxes, prosecutors said.

  Ali Jaafar was sentenced to five years in prison. Yousef Jaafar received a sentence of more than four years. They were also ordered to pay $6 million in restitution and forfeit the profits from their scheme.

  The two men were convicted in December of conspiracy to defraud the IRS, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and filing a false tax return.

  According to the DOJ; “Based upon their submitted lottery claims, in 2019, Ali Jaafar was the top individual lottery ticket casher for Massachusetts. Mohamed Jaafar was the third highest individual ticket casher and Yousef Jaafar was the fourth highest individual ticket casher. In total, the three family members received more than $1,200,000 in tax refunds by claiming other peoples’ lottery tickets as their own and then offsetting those winnings with fake gambling losses on their tax returns.”

  Another one of Ali Jaafar’s sons, Mohamed Jaafar, pleaded guilty to his role in the scheme in November, and is currently awaiting sentencing.

  The scheme involved paying the owners of dozens of stores that sell lottery tickets to facilitate the transactions. At present, the state lottery commission is in the process of revoking or suspending the licenses of more than 40 lottery agents.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 23:10

• World's Largest Real Estate Market On The Brink Of Collapse: Experts
  World’s Largest Real Estate Market On The Brink Of Collapse: Experts

  Authored by Kathleen Li and Ellen Wan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Recent statistics from China’s central bank show that home buyers’ enthusiasm has fallen drastically. Despite price cuts and incentives, the world’s largest housing market continues to slump, and China’s banking sector is taking a hit on two fronts, as both defaults and prepayments rise. Meanwhile, China’s developers are starting to show the strain, with real estate giant Wanda Group making headlines this week as the value of its dollar bonds plunged.

  

  In early 2023, the Chinese real estate market had a short-lived rebound as local governments across the country issued policies to bail out the failing real estate sector, according to the China Index Academy, a real estate research institute. By the end of April, the mortgage rate for first-home buyers in more than 40 cities had been lowered to below 4 percent.

  However, after an optimistic outlook in March, April’s sales failed to live up to analysts’ expectations.

  According to the April 2023 Financial Statistics Report released by China’s central bank on May 11, mortgages decreased by 241.1 billion yuan ($33.8 billion) in April. Among those, medium- and long-term household loans, mostly mortgages, decreased by 115.6 billion yuan ($16.2 billion), while short-term mortgages decreased by 125.5 billion yuan ($17.6 billion).

  Public statistics show that sales of previously owned homes in China’s largest cities all showed double-digit declines in April. Among them, Beijing fell 37.3 percent; Hangzhou fell 32.7 percent; Shanghai fell 26.71 percent; and Nanjing fell 13 percent. The worst decline was in Hefei, which plunged by 40 percent.

  CCP Puts the Brakes on Price Cuts

  The weak housing market forced developers to cut prices. However, two real estate developers in Kunshan, China were penalized by Chinese regulators for cutting prices by a large margin, so much so, according to regulators, that they “disrupted the normal order of the real estate market and caused social instability.”

  Japan-based current affairs commentator Qu Kai told The Epoch Times on May 13: “The reason why the [Chinese] regime won’t let real estate developers lower prices is very simple. The chain reaction caused by price cuts will instantly burst the bubble of China’s property market, causing a series of economic crises that would be difficult for the CCP to manage.”

  Qu believes that the current real estate crisis will sooner or later affect banks and eventually will impact the regime as a whole, as the CCP will be unable to maintain its revenue through the property market.

  On the Brink

  China is the world’s largest housing market. According to estimates from prominent economist Ren Zeping’s “China Housing Market Value Report 2021,” the country’s housing market value was $62.6 trillion in 2020, compared to $33.6 trillion in the United States, $10.8 trillion in Japan, and $31.5 trillion in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany combined. Ren is a former economist at China’s Development Research Center.

  According to Ren’s “China Wealth Report 2022,” the market value of China’s housing market reached 476 trillion yuan (about $73.8 trillion) in 2021. This represents a 17.9 percent increase in total market value compared to 2020.

  When considering the ratio of housing market value to GDP, China’s housing market value in 2020 was already 414 percent, higher than Japan’s 391 percent before its housing bubble burst in the 1990s.

  As China’s economy weakens and the housing market shrinks, the number of foreclosed homes in China climbed to 606,000 in 2022, an increase of 35.7 percent year-over-year. At the same time, many cities have seen a huge increase in the number of second-handed real estate listings for sale.

  Risk Will Be Passed to Banks

  “The consequences of real estate declines and residential mortgage defaults will eventually be passed on to the banks,” Fang Qi, a veteran Chinese finance professional living in the UK, explained to The Epoch Times on May 13.

  Fang said that for banks, there are two risk associated with residential mortgages. Both situations incur losses and directly weaken banks’ assets.

  The first situation arises when homeowners default on mortgage payments. Among the reasons for rising defaults in China is an ongoing mortgage boycott, with many homeowners refusing to make payments on unfinished homes. An August 2022 New York Times article estimates that the boycott may affect as many as 4 percent of outstanding mortgages.

  The second is when homeowners pay off their mortgages early, as many Chinese homeowners—saddled with higher rates—are doing. Mortgage holders are tapping their personal savings or taking out cheap loans under stimulus programs intended for big-ticket consumer purchases or for starting new businesses.

  Analysts estimate that nearly $700 billion of mortgages—close to one-eighth China’s outstanding total—had been prepaid since early 2022 when banks started to lower borrowing rates.

  Under normal conditions, this would free up cash for banks to finance other loans. However, given the current situation in which consumers are being very cautious about spending, it’s actually bad news for banks. Not only are they losing money on existing mortgages, there is a dearth of new loans to finance.

  The result is tightened financing for real estate companies, Fang warned: “The banks’ tightening of finance to the real estate sector will further plunge them into chaos, thus causing a vicious cycle that will affect the banks’ asset quality and profitability. If the risk spreads to a certain extent, banks will incur a large number of bad debts, leading to bankruptcy.”

  Real Estate Developers Feel the Strain

  Amid China’s housing market downturn, many real estate developers are in turmoil. Chinese real estate giant KWG Property released an announcement (pdf) on April 28 saying it had failed to pay 212 million yuan ($31 million) of principal due on that date. The delinquency triggered another 31.2 billion yuan of debt (about $4.36 billion) becoming payable on demand. Two weeks later, the developer defaulted (pdf) on a $119 million redemption payment.

  Even Wanda Group, one of China’s oldest and largest real estate giants, is rumored to be at risk for a debt meltdown. Yields on two U.S. dollar bonds sold by its subsidiary Wanda Properties Global rose above 35 percent in April. Market analysts called the surge a sign that borrowers were having trouble raising new funds, exacerbating the risk of debt crisis and default.

  In late April, Fitch Ratings placed Wanda Commercial and Wanda Commercial Properties (Hong Kong) on its negative watch list.

  Wanda Commercial made headlines with more troubling news on Tuesday as a $400 million dollar bond due for repayment in July fell to about 70 cents, “on the brink of distressed territory,” Bloomberg reported, under the headline “Real Estate Distress Deepens Again as China Woes Spread.”

  Reuters contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 22:50

• MTA Proposes Hiking MetroCard Fares To $2.90 In Attempt To Boost Revenue
  MTA Proposes Hiking MetroCard Fares To $2.90 In Attempt To Boost Revenue

  It turns out the creative solution to help fix MTA quality, that no one has thought of yet is…wait for it…raising fares.

  At least that is the latest proposed solution coming out of the brain trust known as the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, an organization that appears to us to be in a perpetual state of disrepair despite a neverending litany of rising toll prices and transit fares. 

  The new changes will see prices for a MetroCard swipe rise to $2.90 and the hike applies to subway, bus and paratransit rides, according to Yahoo News. The report pointed out the obvious, noting that the purpose of the higher pries is to “boost revenue for the agency”. Ah, so that’s where the money comes from…

  The goal of the MTA is to bolster its top line by 4%, the report says.

  The price of 7 day MetroCards will rise by $1 to $34 and monthly passes will increase $5 to $132. The price of express bus tickets will go up to $7 and seven day express passes will rise in price from $62 to $64. 

  

  New Yorkers, who have dealt with sporadic service since the pandemic, aggressive taxation and spiking inflation, aren’t thrilled about the change.

  Home attendant Luz Ramirez told Yahoo: “How are working people going to do this? We already give up so much just to live. And then the subway costs more and more and more.”

  62 year old Samuel Andrews commented: “We work hard, pay our taxes, and they still have their knee on our neck.”

  One 23 year old from the Bronx said the hike wouldn’t matter much…because he copped to hopping the turnstile whenever possible. “To be honest, I don’t even pay the fee. It needs to be cheaper. I don’t like the amount it is right now. I pay it every now and then. But usually not. I might start paying it once I can’t hop over it, you know? [When] I get too old,” he said. 

  “You’ve got mentally ill all folks all up and down the platforms. How can they still raise the fare?” said 35 year old Starr Riley. 

  MTA Finance Committee chair Neal Zuckerman responded: “We haven’t had increases in a long time. This is a reasonable increase given inflation. It is in keeping with what we did for at least a decade, having predictable 4% every two year increases. Let us not forget, ladies and gentlemen, our ridership is 30 percentage points lower than pre-pandemic.”

  Well, Neal, who do you have to blame for that?

  

   

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 22:30

• The Graveyard Of Empires: The Top Investments As The World Order Collapses
  The Graveyard Of Empires: The Top Investments As The World Order Collapses

  Authored by Nick Giamburno via InternationalMan.com,.

  “You have the watches, but we have the time.”

  The Taliban often referred to this old Afghan saying when discussing their fight against the Americans.

  Ultimately, they were proven correct.

  After almost two decades of conflict, an insurgent army from one of the world’s poorest nations inflicted a decisive military defeat on the US, the global superpower that upholds the unipolar world order.

  The US government’s total failure in Afghanistan—the longest war in American history—signifies a crucial moment and turning point in world history.

  The Soviet Union collapsed about two years after the Red Army was defeated and withdrew from Afghanistan.

  As we approach the second anniversary of the American retreat, could a similar fate be in store for the US?

  While nobody knows the future, there is an excellent chance that the colossal failure in Afghanistan could accelerate the unraveling of the geopolitical power of the US and the shift to a multipolar world order.

  Afghanistan’s strategic position has always made it a coveted prize in the Eurasian landscape.

  As shown in the image below, Afghanistan is situated in the center of Eurasia, at the crossroads of China, Iran, and Russia—the three primary challengers to the US-led world order.

  This central location is why Afghanistan has enormous geopolitical importance and why the US desired a strategic military presence there.

  

  Source: Ontheworldmap.com

  The US military’s presence in Afghanistan was a strategic roadblock to Russia, China, and Iran’s goal of creating a powerful geopolitical group in Eurasia that could challenge the US-led world order.

  However, with the Taliban forcing the US military out of Afghanistan, the door to a more coherent geopolitical alliance in Eurasia is now wide open.

  In short, failure in Afghanistan is a geopolitical disaster for the US.

  For at least the past decade, China, Russia, and Iran have been working on an impressive plan to connect Eurasia—even while the US military was in Afghanistan. This trend will likely speed up now that the US military is no longer physically in their way.

  Here’s what they have been working on…

  China, Russia, and Iran are constructing a vast network of land-based transportation infrastructure, making the US Navy’s control of the oceans less significant.

  China’s New Silk Road project is central to this new system. It aims to bypass the US financial system and the US Navy’s control of sea routes. The project, planned to be operational by 2025, includes high-speed railways, highways, fiber optic cables, energy pipelines, seaports, and airports.

  These Eurasian powers are also establishing alternative international organizations for financial, political, and security cooperation, separate from those central to the US-led world order, institutions like NATO, the World Bank, SWIFT, and the IMF.

  Some notable examples include the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), launched by China in 2014 and is an alternative to the IMF and World Bank.

  The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a Russian-led trading bloc created in 2015, allows for the free movement of goods, services, capital, and people among its member countries.

  Lastly, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) focuses on military and security collaboration between its members.

  If current trends continue, it will result in greater economic, political, and security collaboration among the three main Eurasian nations—China, Russia, and Iran—at the expense of US geopolitical interests.

  This scenario is exactly what Zbigniew Brzezinski worried would make the US “geopolitically peripheral.” It spells the end of the unipolar world order.

  In short, we are on the path to the emergence of an alliance of powerful Eurasian countries and a multipolar world order.

  

  As the world order changes, I think there are two prominent investment outcomes we can bet on.

  Outcome #1: The US Dollar Will Lose Its Privileged Position

  The decline of America’s geopolitical influence is another enormous headwind for the US dollar.

  Suppose the world thinks the US military is the ultimate backstop of the US dollar. What does it mean for the US dollar’s credibility when a ragtag group of insurgents from one of the poorest countries can defeat the military which backs it?

  If the mighty US military couldn’t secure its partners in Afghanistan, how can it protect its other allies?

  Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Western European countries, and the Gulf Arab states are likely pondering this.

  It wouldn’t be surprising to see them make security arrangements with US adversaries—such as China, Russia, and Iran—that exclude the Americans.

  In fact, this has already happened with Saudi Arabia, a crucial player in the US-led world order. Saudi Arabia is the linchpin of the petrodollar system, which has underpinned the US dollar since Nixon removed its last links to gold in 1971.

  In a matter of weeks, Saudi Arabia has:

  1. Restored relations with Iran.

  2. Restored relations with Syria and welcomed it back to Arab League.

  3. Supported multiple OPEC+ oil production cuts against American wishes.

  4. Announced an end to the war in Yemen.

  5. Agreed to sell oil in other currencies.

  6. Decided to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

  The US recently sent its CIA director to Riyadh to tell the Saudis the Americans feel “blindsided” amid these seismic shifts in Saudi foreign policy.

  In short, a paradigm shift in Saudi policies signifies a paradigm shift in the US dollar because of the petrodollar system.

  However, Saudi Arabia is not the only US ally hedging its geopolitical bets recently. France, India, Japan, Mexico, Brazil, and others are making moves to cozy up to the Eurasian geopolitical block.

  The big question is, how long will the world continue to hold the paper liabilities of a bankrupt and declining government?

  While the US dollar is the leading global currency, it was already on a path of inevitable debasement and eventual collapse—even before considering the compounding effects of a multipolar world order.

  The only reason the US government has managed to avoid severe consequences from its monetary policies is the US dollar’s status as the world’s premiere reserve currency, thanks to Washington’s military and economic dominance that has prevailed since the end of World War II. However, as this dominance wanes, so will the dollar’s purchasing power.

  The US government’s ability to hide the effects of its rampant money printing by offloading trillions of dollars to foreigners is nearing its end.

  That’s terrible news for the US dollar.

  Now, that doesn’t mean I’m excited about the Chinese fiat currency—or whatever new monetary concoction the Eurasian block comes up with. Ultimately it will be nothing more than the liability of a new grouping of corrupt politicians and bureaucrats.

  Money is simply something useful for storing and exchanging value. That’s it.

  People have used stones, glass beads, salt, cattle, seashells, gold, silver, and other commodities as money at different times.

  Think of money as a claim on human time. It’s like stored life or energy.

  Unfortunately, today most of humanity thoughtlessly accepts whatever worthless digital and paper scrips their governments give them as money.

  However, money does not need to come from the government. That’s a total misnomer that the average person has been hoodwinked into believing.

  Fake money comes from government. Real money emerges from the market.

  Government currencies are terrible money because they are easy to produce with a potentially unlimited supply.

  The free market wouldn’t choose government confetti as money without laws forcing their use.

  Here’s another way to think of it.

  Imagine if Tony Soprano forced his neighborhood to use pieces of paper with his signature as money and threatened violence against anyone who disobeyed. That’s what governments are doing with their currencies.

  Here’s the bottom line with money. Hardness is the most important characteristic of a good money.

  Hardness does not mean something that is necessarily tangible or physically hard, like metal. Instead, it means “hard to produce.” By contrast, “easy money” is easy to produce.

  The best way to think of hardness is “resistance to debasement,” which helps make it a good store of value—an essential function of money.

  Would you want to put your savings into something somebody else can create without effort or cost?

  Of course, you wouldn’t.

  It would be like storing your life savings in Chuck E. Cheese arcade tokens, airline frequent flyer miles, or pieces of paper with Tony Soprano’s signature. Unfortunately, putting your savings into government currencies isn’t that much different.

  What is desirable in a good money is something that someone else cannot make easily.

  In short, as the US dollar loses its privileged position, I expect an ocean of capital to flow into apolitical, free-market, hard-to-produce monetary alternatives like gold and Bitcoin.

  That’s why I think the end of the unipolar world order will boost two major investment trends—the re-monetization of gold and The Bitcoin Supremacy—as the world seeks alternatives to the US dollar.

  Outcome #2: Commodity Supply Disruption

  The end of the unipolar world order means transitioning to a multipolar global trade regime—with serious implications for commodities.

  As I see it, there will be two main geopolitical blocks.

  First, there are the countries part of or allied with the West. I’m reluctant to call this block “the West” because the people who control it have values antithetical to Western Civilization.

  A more fitting label would be NATO & Friends.

  The other block consists of Russia, China, Iran, and other countries favorable to a multipolar world order.

  Let’s call them the BRICS+, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other interested countries.

  Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, the UAE, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and numerous others have expressed interest in membership of BRICS.

  BRICS+ is not a perfect label, but it’s a decent representation of the countries favorable to the multipolar world order.

  While there already is friction in free trade—sanctions, tariffs, export bans, nationalizations, embargoes, strategic competition, etc.—between NATO & Friends and BRICS+, I expect it to grow substantially as the multipolar world order emerges.

  That will have serious consequences for commodities, which BRICS+ dominates.

  Take Russia, for example.

  Politicians and the media in the US often ridicule Russia as nothing more than “a gas station with nuclear weapons,” an inaccurate cartoonish depiction.

  Here’s the reality…

  Russia is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, lumber, wheat, fertilizer, and palladium (a crucial car component).

  It is the second-largest exporter of oil and aluminum and the third-largest exporter of nickel and coal.

  Russia is a major producer and processor of uranium for nuclear power plants. Enriched uranium from Russia and its allies provides electricity to 20% of the homes in the US.

  Aside from China, Russia produces more gold than any other country, accounting for more than 10% of global production.

  These are just a handful of examples. There are many strategic commodities that Russia dominates.

  In short, Russia is not just an oil and gas powerhouse but a commodity powerhouse.

  As tensions between NATO & Friends and BRICS+ continue to rise, I expect it to disrupt commodity trade between the two further.

  Supply disruptions mean higher prices. That’s an outcome I think we can bet on.

  I expect countries in both geopolitical blocks will increasingly focus on securing critical commodities and ensuring access to stable supplies.

  I think we can bet on geopolitical competition between the two blocks causing increased demand and unstable supplies.

  That’s why obtaining exposure to strategic commodities as the world order changes could be a winning move.

  Here’s the bottom line…

  Unfortunately, most people have no idea what really happens when the world order changes, let alone how to prepare…

  The coming crisis will be much worse, much longer, and very different than what we’ve seen since World War II.

  Countless millions throughout history were wiped out financially—or worse—as the world order changed because they failed to see the correct Big Picture and take appropriate action.

  Don’t be one of them.

  That’s exactly why I just released an urgent new report with all the details, including what you must do to prepare.

  It’s called, The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now.

  Click here to download the PDF now.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 22:10

• 3 Arrested Russian Scientists Accused Of Handing Hypersonic Missile Secrets To China
  3 Arrested Russian Scientists Accused Of Handing Hypersonic Missile Secrets To China

  A week ago, just as Ukraine was claiming to have shot down Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, three top Russian scientists who’ve reportedly worked on the country’s hypersonic program were arrested on suspicion of treason.

  The Kremlin had said the three face “very serious accusations”. They were identified as Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk and Valery Zvegintsev – and worked at the Khristianovich Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk. Shiplyuk was actually director of the institute, thus the highly visible case has sent shockwaves through the Russian ruling establishment and academic community.

  

  The arrests were under mysterious circumstances, given the Kremlin didn’t spell out the details of the allegations against them, and immediately set off rare public outcry from other scientists angered over their detention. 

  When pressed on the nature and specifics of the case, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov only said that security services are being extra watchful concerning potential cases of “betrayal of the motherland” at this sensitive time of the war in Ukraine. 

  Now, on Wednesday, Reuters in an exclusive has cited sources saying the scientists are accused of betraying classified hypersonic program secrets to China. Director Shiplyuk in particular “is suspected of handing over classified material at a scientific conference in China in 2017, the sources said,” according to the report.

  “The 56-year-old maintains his innocence and insists the information in question wasn’t classified and was freely available online, according to the people, whom Reuters has chosen not to identify to safeguard their security.”

  He and his supporters in the academic and scientific community in Russia say that the information in question which may have been shared with Chinese counterparts was not at all secret. Per Reuters: 

  “He is convinced of the fact that the information was not secret, and of his own innocence,” one of the people said.

  The nature of the allegations against the ITAM director, who was arrested last August, has not been previously reported. The Chinese connection would make Shiplyuk the latest in a string of Russian scientists who have been arrested in recent years for allegedly betraying secrets to Beijing.

  Indeed such recent arrests of top officials have had a chilling effect inside Russia, particularly among circles which are critical of recent Kremlin decision-making regarding the Ukraine war and tactics utilized. 

  Did an information breach make the “unstoppable” hypersonic missiles more vulnerable to shootdown?

  5. After the US supplied #Patriot systems shot down Russia’s invincible #Kinzhal #hypersonic missiles the Kremlin arrested three Russian scientists on charges of treason for allegedly leaking critical data that made the missiles less invincible than the Kremlin had claimed. pic.twitter.com/ANpRcpY6J6

  — Tim Hogan 浩勤 (@TimInHonolulu) May 20, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The Reuters report has further speculated on just which top Chines officials may be on the other side of the suspected breach of classified technology and information: 

  ITAM, sited at the Academgorodok science campus near the city of Novosibirsk, says on its website that it is registered as a part of Russia’s military-industrial complex. The institute has had extensive international links including contacts with companies, universities and research centres across the world, according to a 2020 online document that outlined its work.

  Among the institutions listed was the China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center (CARDC), whose website includes several posts celebrating experimental breakthroughs relating to fighter jets and hypersonic missiles.

  The CARDC site names the center’s director as Wang Xunnian. According to two official Chinese local government websites, Wang is a major general in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

  One Russian colleague of the detained scientists has complained that handing off information to other allied international researchers should be seen as relatively benign. “It’s a long path. Just doing the basic research does not provide you with a missile,” the sources said.

  Given recent updated laws in the wake of the Ukraine conflict, a conviction on treason in Russia could bring anywhere from 20 years to life in prison.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 21:50

• House Republican 'Speechless' After Senior FBI Official Admits Not Reading Durham Report
  House Republican ‘Speechless’ After Senior FBI Official Admits Not Reading Durham Report

  Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) said he was “speechless” when he learned that a senior FBI official had not read the Durham report, which was released more than a week ago.

  

  Pfluger, chairman of the Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, and Intelligence, questioned Jill Murphy, deputy assistant director of counterintelligence at the FBI, during a hearing on May 23.

  “Special Counsel Durham assesses that neither U.S. law enforcement nor the Intelligence Community appears to have possessed any actual evidence of collusion in their holdings at the commencement of the Crossfire Hurricane investigation,” Pfluger said. Crossfire Hurricane is the FBI codename for the agency’s 2016–17 FBI investigation into the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia.

  Pfluger continued, “The bureau subsequently discounted or willfully ignored material that did not support the narrative of a collusive relationship between [former President Donald] Trump and Russia.”

  “As the deputy assistant director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division, are you familiar with this report?” Pfluger asked.

  In response, Murphy said, “I have not read that report.”

  “I’m honestly speechless at this point in time,” Pfluger said in reply.

  When pressed on why she had not read the report, Murphy said, “I just haven’t had time.”

  “This is a sincere question. Does election collusion worry you?” Pfluger asked Murphy, who said it “obviously” worried her.

  “I would highly recommend reading that because we spent four years discussing that. There was uncorroborated evidence—the Durham report specifically outlines the outcome of that. It’s very disappointing to hear this.”

  

  Durham Report

  John Durham, appointed by then-Attorney General William Barr in October 2020 to review the 2016–17 FBI investigation of alleged ties between Trump and Russia, found that the FBI “relied on “raw, unanalyzed, and uncorroborated intelligence” for its investigation.

  “The objective facts show that the FBI’s handling of important aspects of t

  Following the report’s release, the FBI acknowledged mistakes in its investigation of the Trump campaign, while Trump said in a statement that “the American Public was scammed.”

  “The Durham Report spells out in great detail the Democrat Hoax that was perpetrated upon me and the American people. This is 2020 Presidential Election Fraud, just like ‘stuffing’ the ballot boxes, only more so,” Trump added.

  Other Republicans at the hearing shared Pfluger’s astonishment that Murphy had not read the report.

  “I also was surprised at your answer—you haven’t read the Durham report,” said Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.). “Why is that not a matter of such import that you would want urgently to understand what the special counsel concluded about the work of the counterintelligence division? In such a grave case?”

  Murphy replied, “Sir, if you’d like a brief on the Durham report from the counterintelligence division, I’m happy to take that back.”

  “Wow, that sounds almost contemptuous,” Bishop said in response. “Do you intend to read it?”

  “I do intend to read it,” Murphy told Bishop.

  Read more here…

  he Crossfire Hurricane matter were seriously deficient,” Durham added in the report.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 21:30

• Seattle Amazon Workers Plan Walkout To Protest Returning To Office, Layoffs
  Seattle Amazon Workers Plan Walkout To Protest Returning To Office, Layoffs

  Amazon workers are planning on protesting layoffs and requirements to return to the office (also referred to as simply “normal occurrences while participating in the workforce”) by walking out of the company’s Seattle headquarters next week. 

  Because that’s a great way to not land yourself on the layoff list...complain about working and then walk out of your job.

  Oh, and we almost forgot, they are also (of course) protesting “the company’s environmental impact”, according to ABC. The walkout is being planned for May 31, which will be one week after Amazon’s annual meeting, the report says. 

  

  The protest is also reportedly “contingent on at least 1,000 Amazon employees from the company’s Seattle headquarters agreeing to participate”. We’ll eagerly await to see whether or not enough brain-dead Amazon employees decide to help meet quorum, putting their job on the line for what we’re sure will ultimately turn out to be a meaningless protest. 

  Amazon took the decision in stride, at least publicly. “We respect our employees’ rights to express their opinions,” they said in a statement. Meanwhile Drew Herdener, senior vice president for communications at Amazon, claims there’s been “a good energy” on the company’s Seattle campus since people started returning to the office. 

  As we have noted, Amazon, like many other U.S. companies, is in the midst of a string of layoffs, cutting 27,000 jobs since November. As ABC notes, layoffs have occurred broadly, in numerous divisions, including advertising, human resources, gaming, stores, devices and Amazon Web Services. 

  The report concludes that “more than 20,000 workers signed a petition” to reconsider requiring returning to the office and says that “some employees” are complaining about the company’s inaction on addressing climate change. 

  We’re sure the news has Jeff Bezos very bothered…

  

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 21:10

• Jeffrey Sachs: The Ukraine War Was Provoked – & Why That Matters To Achieve Peace
  Jeffrey Sachs: The Ukraine War Was Provoked – & Why That Matters To Achieve Peace

  Authored by Jeffrey D. Sachs via Consortium News,

  George Orwell wrote in 1984 that “Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.” Governments work relentlessly to distort public perceptions of the past. Regarding the Ukraine War, the Biden administration has repeatedly and falsely claimed that the Ukraine War started with an unprovoked attack by Russia on Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

  In fact, the war was provoked by the U.S. in ways that leading U.S. diplomats anticipated for decades in the lead-up to the war, meaning that the war could have been avoided and should now be stopped through negotiations. 

  Recognizing that the war was provoked helps us to understand how to stop it. It doesn’t justify Russia’s invasion. A far better approach for Russia might have been to step up diplomacy with Europe and with the non-Western world to explain and oppose U.S. militarism and unilateralism.

  

  In fact, the relentless U.S. push to expand NATO is widely opposed throughout the world, so Russian diplomacy rather than war would likely have been effective.

  Two Main Provocations

  The Biden team uses the word “unprovoked” incessantly, most recently in Biden’s major speech on the first-year anniversary of the war, in a recent NATO statement, and in the most recent G7 statement.

  Mainstream media friendly to Biden simply parrot the White House. The New York Times is the lead culprit, describing the invasion as “unprovoked” no fewer than 26 times, in five editorials, 14 opinion columns by NYT writers, and seven guest op-eds. 

  There were in fact two main U.S. provocations.

  The first was the U.S. intention to expand NATO to Ukraine and Georgia in order to surround Russia in the Black Sea region by NATO countries (Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria Turkey, and Georgia, in counterclockwise order).

  The second was the U.S. role in installing a Russophobic regime in Ukraine by the violent overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, in February 2014. The shooting war in Ukraine began with Yanukovych’s overthrow nine years ago, not in February 2022 as the U.S. government, NATO, and the G7 leaders would have us believe. 

  Biden and his foreign policy team refuse to discuss these roots of the war. To recognize them would undermine the administration in three ways.

  First, it would expose how the war could have been avoided, or stopped early, sparing Ukraine its current devastation and the U.S. more than $100 billion in outlays to date.

  Second, it would expose Biden’s personal role in the war as a participant in the overthrow of Yanukovych, and before that as a staunch backer of the military-industrial complex and very early advocate of NATO enlargement.

  Third, it would push Biden to the negotiating table, undermining the administration’s continued push for NATO expansion.

  Check the Archives 

  The archives show irrefutably that the U.S. and German governments repeatedly promised to Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not move “one inch eastward” when the Soviet Union disbanded the Warsaw Pact military alliance.

  Nonetheless, U.S. planning for NATO expansion began early in the 1990s, well before Vladimir Putin was Russia’s president. In 1997, national security expert Zbigniew Brzezinski spelled out the NATO expansion timeline with remarkable precision. 

  U.S. diplomats and Ukraine’s own leaders knew well that NATO enlargement could lead to war. The U.S. scholar-statesman George Kennan called NATO enlargement a “fateful error,” writing in The New York Times that,

  “Such a decision may be expected to inflame the nationalistic, anti-Western and militaristic tendencies in Russian opinion; to have an adverse effect on the development of Russian democracy; to restore the atmosphere of the cold war to East-West relations, and to impel Russian foreign policy in directions decidedly not to our liking.”

  

  President Bill Clinton’s Secretary of Defense William Perry considered resigning in protest against NATO enlargement. In reminiscing about this crucial moment in the mid-1990s, Perry said the following in 2016:

  “Our first action that really set us off in a bad direction was when NATO started to expand, bringing in eastern European nations, some of them bordering Russia. At that time, we were working closely with Russia and they were beginning to get used to the idea that NATO could be a friend rather than an enemy … but they were very uncomfortable about having NATO right up on their border and they made a strong appeal for us not to go ahead with that.”

  In 1998, William Burns, then the U.S. ambassador to Russia and now the C.I.A. director, sent a cable to Washington warning at length of grave risks of NATO enlargement:

  “Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO aspirations not only touch a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia’s influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.” 

  Ukraine’s leaders knew clearly that pressing for NATO enlargement to Ukraine would mean war. Former Zelensky adviser Oleksiy Arestovych declared in a 2019 interview “that our price for joining NATO is a big war with Russia.”

  During 2010-2013, Yanukovych pushed neutrality, in line with Ukrainian public opinion. The U.S. worked covertly to overthrow Yanukovych, as captured vividly in the tape of then U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and U.S. Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt planning the post-Yanukovych government weeks before the violent overthrow of Yanukovych.

  Nuland makes clear on the call that she was coordinating closely with then Vice President Biden and his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, the same Biden-Nuland-Sullivan team now at the center of U.S. policy vis-à-vis Ukraine. 

  

  After Yanukovych’s overthrow, the war broke out in the Donbass, while Russia claimed Crimea. The new Ukrainian government appealed for NATO membership, and the U.S. armed and helped restructure the Ukrainian army to make it interoperable with NATO. In 2021, NATO and the Biden administration strongly recommitted to Ukraine’s future in NATO.

  In the immediate lead-up to Russia’s invasion, NATO enlargement was center stage. Putin’s draft NATO-Russia Treaty (Dec. 17, 2021) called for a halt to NATO enlargement. Russia’s leaders put NATO enlargement as the cause of war in Russia’s National Security Council meeting on Feb. 21, 2022. In his address to the nation that day, Putin declared NATO enlargement to be a central reason for the invasion. 

  Historian Geoffrey Roberts recently wrote:

  “Could war have been prevented by a Russian-Western deal that halted NATO expansion and neutralised Ukraine in return for solid guarantees of Ukrainian independence and sovereignty? Quite possibly.”

  In March 2022, Russia and Ukraine reported progress towards a quick negotiated end to the war based on Ukraine’s neutrality. According to Naftali Bennett, former prime minister of Israel, who was a mediator, an agreement was close to being reached before the U.S., U.K. and France blocked it. 

  While the Biden administration declares Russia’s invasion to be unprovoked, Russia pursued diplomatic options in 2021 to avoid war, while Biden rejected diplomacy, insisting that Russia had no say whatsoever on the question of NATO enlargement. And Russia pushed diplomacy in March 2022, while the Biden team again blocked a diplomatic end to the war. 

  By recognizing that the question of NATO enlargement is at the center of this war, we understand why U.S. weaponry will not end this war. Russia will escalate as necessary to prevent NATO enlargement to Ukraine. The key to peace in Ukraine is through negotiations based on Ukraine’s neutrality and NATO non-enlargement.

  The Biden administration’s insistence on NATO enlargement to Ukraine has made Ukraine a victim of misconceived and unachievable U.S. military aspirations. It’s time for the provocations to stop, and for negotiations to restore peace to Ukraine.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 20:50

• Russia Blasts US Threats To Sanction Georgia As Direct Flights Resume
  Russia Blasts US Threats To Sanction Georgia As Direct Flights Resume

  Both the United States and European Union are mulling sanctions on the Republic of Georgia due to ongoing trade ties and Georgia’s newly receiving direct commercial flights from Russia.

  Russia, which is Georgia’s second largest trading partner, has recently moved to thaw relations, given in part its ongoing isolation from the West, with President Putin this month signing a decree (on May 10) ending a Russian ban on direct flights which had been in effect since 2019 (following large anti-Russian protests). 

  

  Additionally, for the first time in two decades Georgian citizens can now enter Russia without a visa (for up to 90 days).

  The governing Georgian Dream party has welcomed the moves, saying “The beneficiaries are our citizens who have to take a detour at triple the cost” – in reference to the estimated hundreds of thousands of ethnic Georgians living in Russia.  

  Tbilisi has this week responded to Moscow by issuing formal approval of the first Georgian operators to conduct regular flights to and from Moscow.

  While Georgia has not joined in on Western sanctions against Russia, it has long pledged to not allow its territory to be used to circumvent the sanctions. But this has presented issues over aircraft maintenance and parts. The US and EU reactions to resumption of air travel is seen in the following: 

  Earlier, US State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel also warned of sanctions risks for companies at Georgian airports if they “service aircraft subject to import and export controls.” EU Spokesperson Peter Stano, too, warned of safety concerns on May 11, saying that due to the sanctions, 95% of the Russian fleet is unable to “update or upgrade” their aircraft. 

  “The European Union encourages Georgia, which is aspiring to become EU candidate country, to align with the existing EU sanctions … against Russia also in the area of aviation and to remain vigilant regarding any possible attempts to circumvent the existing sanctions,” Stano said. In another statement on May 16, the EU spokesperson said the EU “regrets” the decision to resume Georgia-Russia flights which “raises concerns in terms of Georgia’s EU path.”

  Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvil has pushed back, saying Wednesday, “What the EU trades with Russia in four days, we trade with Russia in one year,” in an interview at the Qatar Economic Forum.

  “When it comes to economic sanctions […] Georgia’s trade turnover with Russia is less than $1 billion” a year, he underscored. “This is ridiculous, isn’t it? That $1 billion could not affect Russian economy.”

  Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also blasted threats against Georgia coming from Washington. 

  “There’s no other way to call [the statements by the State Department] than interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states,” she told a press briefing. “We regard such mentoring statements from Washington as interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states and in their relations with third countries and overt pressure.”

  The EU is now as part of a 11th round sanctions package on Russia mulling adding in punitive measures against third parties caught facilitating Russian sanctions-busting activities. Ironically Georgia is widely seen as pro-Western and US-friendly, but if the West goes after Tbilisi with aggressive economic measures this could quickly change. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 20:30

• Withdrawing Your Own Cash? NatWest Bank Wants To Know Why… And See Proof
  Withdrawing Your Own Cash? NatWest Bank Wants To Know Why… And See Proof

  Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

  A reader sent me this graphic which is circulating on social media.

  

  Whenever I see an unattributed image like this going around I want to verify it, lest it be photoshopped, a deep-fake or some derivation of  “urban legend”.

  Sure enough, if you go to NatWest bank’s website, right here – you see this cash withdrawal policy spelled out for all to see:

  

  This isn’t actually new

  Here in Canada, for at least a few years – predating COVID, the big four banks have been routinely asking you why you are taking cash out whenever you withdraw anything over a couple thousand dollars. However, you can tell them pretty well anything (“because I want it”,  “none of your business”  or even “to blow it all on booze and hookers”, will all work).  I haven’t heard of a case where a withdrawal has been denied based on the reason supplied, yet.

  But now that we’re starting to see it formalized in policy language of banks, we can all see where this is going.

  The war on cash has been in full swing for a long time, India banned large denominations bills  in 2016 and will now start eliminating them from the monetary base. France has been signalling a prohibition on cash payments over 1,000 francs since 2013 and finally, quietly, it seems, made it part of the framework this year.

  It portends a wider initiative across the entire Eurozone (who is also trying to lump in crypto payments under the restrictions).

  This is all to lay the groundwork for the march into Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) which will seek to accomplish three objectives of Late-Stage Globalism:

  1. Eliminate privacy – making all transactions trackable, traceable and taxable in realtime.

  2. Introduce controls on how, when and why you are spending your own money. Think China-style social credit, which in its Westernized form will almost certainly involve personal carbon footprint quotas.
     And most importantly (otherwise we wouldn’t be calling it “Late Stage Gobalism”):

  3.  Extend the runway of fiat currencies – which are about to hit the wall as a long-wave debt super-cycle reaches its crescendo.

  The antidote to all this, is of course, Bitcoin. The only digital asset that is scarce, truly decentralized, has frictionless portability, and is backstopped in physical reality (the “7th property”) in away gold isn’t.  It embodies all other properties of sound money:

  

  Via “The 7th Property: Bitcoin and the Monetary Revolution” by Eric Yakes

  There are still many who scoff at the idea of “magic internet money” becoming viable at all, let alone the main bulwark against the coming CBDCs.  We know cash is doomed, we know any state or central bank issued digital substitutes will simply be linear, digital extensions of fiat: backed by nothing, based on debt, but with added layers of technocratic surveillance and control.

  With the mother of all economic recessions dead ahead (if not here already), and the fiat banking system more or less insolvent, the value proposition for CBDCs (a.k.a subservience-tokens) will be Universal Basic Income, with all encompassing strings attached.

  Anybody relying on the State for their economic subsistence will have their lives gamified via their smartphones, their  carbon footprints metered, their energy usage subject to approval. Such will be the life of a CBDC-serf.

  

  When those days come, the bank won’t have to ask you why you want some of your own money and how you are going to spend it.

  You’re the one who will have to ask them …for permission.

  *  *  *

  My next ebook is The CBDC Survival Guide and I’m sending it free to Bombthrower subscribers when it’s done (early June). In the meantime, subscribe now and get The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto while you wait. Follow me on Nostr, or Twitter. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 20:10

• Post-Fukushima Shift: Japan Court Rejects Citizens' Concerns, Paving Way For Nuclear Power Restart
  Post-Fukushima Shift: Japan Court Rejects Citizens’ Concerns, Paving Way For Nuclear Power Restart

  On Wednesday, a district court in Japan dismissed residents’ calls to halt the restart of a nuclear reactor. This represents a victory for the Pacific island nation, grappling with soaring energy costs fueled by the prolonged war in Ukraine. 

  The Japan Times reports Sendai District Court in northeastern Japan has ruled Tohoku Electric Power can restart the No. 2 unit of the Onagawa plant early next year. It will become the first unit to restart since the nuclear power plant was idled after the devastating 2011 earthquake and tsunami that triggered the meltdown at Fukushima. 

  

  Judge Mitsuhiro Saito rejected residents’ calls that claimed an evacuation plan was inadequate. Residents said if a nuclear accident occurred, many wouldn’t be able to escape outside an 18.5-mile radius of the plant because of traffic jams. They said they would be exposed to radiation. 

  “It cannot be assumed that a specific danger of an accident exists that leads to the abnormal release of radioactive materials,” said Saito.

  Tohoku Electric was seeking a dismissal of the lawsuit because evacuation plans had already been approved by the country’s nuclear disaster prevention council. 

  “The court acknowledged our claim.

  “We will continue to cooperate as much as possible to improve the effectiveness of the evacuation plans,” Tohoku wrote in a statement. 

  In response to the ruling, Tohoku shares jumped nearly 8% in Tokyo trading on Wednesday. 

  

  In the last nine months, Japan has reevaluated its energy policies following a decade of paralysis of nuclear power generation as fossil fuel energy costs soar. 

  Here’s our reporting on the U-turn: 

  • In Stunning Post-Fukushima Shift, Japan To Build More Nuclear Power Plants
  • Post-Fukushima Shift: Political And Public Support Rises In Japan For More Nuclear Plants
  • Global Energy Crisis Forces Japan To U-Turn On Its Nuclear Policy
  • Japan’s Government Adopts Nuclear Energy Policy In Major Turnaround Amid Energy Crisis

  Meanwhile, Asia is rapidly building nuclear power plants: because it’s the future of decarbonized power grids.

  

  The U-turn in Japan’s policy comes after we recommended uranium stocks in December 2020. We stated back then that nuclear would be accepted as one of the most stable “clean energy” sources to meet silly climate change targets. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 19:50

• The FBI Has Crossed The Rubicon
  The FBI Has Crossed The Rubicon

  Authored by Sam Faddis via AND Magazine substack,

  The expression “crossing the Rubicon” refers to the actions of Julius Caesar in crossing the Rubicon River and marching on Rome. Roman armies were forbidden to do so. The rule was very practical. The Romans understood the danger of allowing a large armed force to march on the capital city.  To allow this might spell the end of the republic. Best that popular conquering generals and their armies stay a safe distance away and respect the democratic institutions at the heart of Roman democracy.

  Caesar broke the rule. He marched on Rome. He didn’t care what the Senators thought. The rest is history. Within a generation, there was no republic.

  The FBI has now taken similar action. It has signaled in the clearest possible manner it does not care what the people or their elected representatives think. It will do what it pleases, and the consequences be damned.

  The recently released Durham report paints a graphic picture of an agency out of control. The FBI did not blunder into an investigation of Donald Trump, his campaign, and his associates. The FBI undertook to deliberately destroy Trump and those around him including General Flynn. The FBI took unto itself the power to decide who could be President.

  

  That fact has now been publicly exposed. The whole nation can see that the FBI acted in violation of law and every tradition we have had since the inception of the republic. The FBI has responded with remarkable clarity.

  It did nothing wrong. It does not care what Durham (or countless whistleblowers) say(s). It does not care what Congress thinks. It will do as it pleases.

  

  The Assistant Director of the FBI for Counterintelligence, Suzanne Turner, just testified before Congress. Asked about the Durham report, the one that said her agency had run amok and tried to stage what amounted to a coup, she responded by saying she had not bothered to read the report nor had she been briefed on it.

  When pressed further she offered to take questions back to the FBI and see if she could get someone else to answer them. Contempt dripped from her every word and every mannerism. The concerns of the people’s elected representatives were clearly of no interest whatsoever to her.

  The House Oversight Committee is investigating the possibility that the current President of the United States took money from foreign interests, including Communist China, in exchange for policy decisions. In other words, the House is pursuing evidence that suggests pretty strongly that Joe Biden works for Beijing. As part of that investigation, the House has demanded from the FBI copies of reports that apparently show the FBI knew about this some time ago.

  

  The FBI has refused to provide the documents. Meanwhile, there are continuing reports that whistleblowers from within the federal workforce who provide information about the Bidens are being retaliated against and sidelined. In some cases, they have had their security clearances taken away and been suspended without pay. That’s what happens to FBI agents who think Congress is still in charge.

  House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) has blasted the FBI for impeding the investigation into the Biden family’s business dealings, calling the federal agency “very patronizing.” He has also said that the FBI does not “respect anyone.” All of that is crystal clear. The days when the FBI would scurry to take action and avoid Congressional disfavor are long gone. The Bureau is above all that now.

  Meanwhile, the FBI has announced that it destroyed all of the evidence it gathered into the actions of Hillary Clinton, the Clinton Foundation, and the mountains of foreign money that flowed to the Clintons when Hillary was Secretary of State.  This comes after revelations that the FBI shut down four separate investigations into the Clinton campaign in the runup to the 2016 election.  While the FBI was manufacturing evidence of a non-existent Trump-Putin connection it was actively covering for Hillary – and it is continuing to do so.

  

  Three years ago, the FBI was handed Hunter Biden’s laptop which literally drips with evidence not just of corruption but of Chinese intelligence connections to Joe Biden and his associates. As far as anyone can tell, the FBI continues to sit on that computer and intends to take no action of any kind to investigate its contents.

  Information just surfacing indicates that the FBI routinely used FISA warrants to spy on domestic political opponents inside the United States.

  

  The FBI no longer answers to the elected representatives of the American people nor does it care what they think. It did not get sloppy. It did not make some errors in judgment. Its leaders decided that they were entitled to do whatever they chose and to ignore our laws, our traditions, and the judgment of the nation’s citizens.

  Most importantly, however, nothing that has happened has changed any of that. The FBI is not chastened. It is not scrambling to change course and make reforms. As an institution, it does not believe that it has done anything wrong.  It will continue to act in the future precisely as it has in the past.

  The FBI has crossed the Rubicon. The consequences of that action, if not addressed immediately, will shake the foundations of the republic.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 19:30

• "There's Poop Everywhere": San Francisco's Office District Not Only A Ghost Town, It's Also Covered In Sh*t
  “There’s Poop Everywhere”: San Francisco’s Office District Not Only A Ghost Town, It’s Also Covered In Sh*t

  

  Everyone knows that San Francisco is the nation’s largest public toilet – requiring the city to employ six-figure ‘poop patrol’ cleanup team, however a new report from the city Controller’s Office really puts things in poo-spective.

  

  For starters, feces were found far more often in commercial sectors, covering “approximately 50% of street segments in Key Commercial Areas and 30% in the Citywide survey,” second only to broken glass as can be seen in the ‘illegal dumping’ section.

  

  If you’re wondering about the city’s fecal methodology, look no further than a footnote on page 43;

  Feces also includes bags filled with feces that are not inside trash receptacles. Feces that are spread or smeared on the street, sidewalk, or other objects along the evaluation route are counted. Stains that appear to be related to feces but have been cleaned are not counted. Bird droppings are excluded.

  As far as where most of the poo is found, Nob Hill takes the top spot, followed by the Tenderloin and The Mission districts.

  

  “It’s terrible; this street is covered,” Tenderloin resident Joe Souza told The San Francisco Standard earlier this month. “There’s poop everywhere. You always see it along the wall and in front of the garage there.”

  

  Meanwhile, nearly 2/3 of key commercial routes reported moderate to severe street litter, vs. 41% of the citywide streets struggling with the same problem.

  

  As the San Francisco Standard reports;

  San Francisco’s commercial and residential streets are also highly tagged up, with every neighborhood except one—Visitacion Valley—reporting high levels of graffiti last year. The issue is once again worse in commercial areas, of which 71% said they had severe or moderate graffiti.

  

  “In terms of actual counts of graffiti observed, there were about 10 times (160,000 vs. 16,000 respectively) as many instances of graffiti reported in the Key Commercial Areas survey in comparison to the Citywide sample,” the report said.

  And San Francisco’s favorite cleanliness fixation, human or animal feces, continues to be a sore spot for the city: Almost half of the surveyed commercial areas observed feces. Citywide, that figure was just 30%.

  *  *  *

  San Francisco’s poopocalypse comes amid a staggering commercial office vacancy rate as a combination of pandemic-era work-from-home policies, and people fleeing the city’s notorious violence and poo-covered streets have made the once-thriving city into a ghost town.

  Same

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 24, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 19:10

• JP Morgan Bets Big On Carbon Removal
  JP Morgan Bets Big On Carbon Removal

  Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

  • JP Morgan has committed to invest over $200 million in buying credits for carbon removal.

  • JP Morgan is also helping carbon capture businesses with financing.

  • JP Morgan is also one of the biggest financiers of fossil fuel projects.

  JP Morgan is betting big on carbon removal and is buying credits from direct air capture developers to offset its environmental footprint, officials at the largest U.S. bank have told The Wall Street Journal.

  

  JP Morgan has committed to invest over $200 million in buying credits for carbon removal and is also helping carbon capture businesses to take off.

  “We’re jumping in the pool all in,” JP Morgan’s head of operational sustainability, Brian DiMarino, told the Journal an interview.  

  “This is us putting our weight and our capital behind something we believe is truly important to bring to market now,” DiMarino added.  

  Last year, JP Morgan Securities LLC served as sole placement agent for direct air capture (DAC) technology developer Climeworks as it raised $650 million in an equity round.

  Last month, JP Morgan and several other companies announced that they had joined Frontier, an advance market commitment to accelerate carbon removal. The new members in Frontier – Autodesk, H&M Group, JP Morgan Chase, and Workday – will commit to purchase a combined $100 million of permanent, high-quality carbon removal over the next eight years, bringing Frontier’s total advance market commitment to over $1 billion. 

  

  Commenting on the agreement, DiMarino said last month, “Scaling technological innovation, including around carbon removal, will play a critical role in the transition to a more sustainable future.”

  Yet, JP Morgan is also one of the biggest financiers of fossil fuel projects.

  For the first time since 2019, JP Morgan Chase dropped from the top spot of the biggest backer of fossil fuels.

  JP Morgan is no longer the world’s biggest financier of fossil fuels.

  Last year Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) became the top bank funding oil and gas, a report by environmental groups showed last month.

  Overall, U.S. banks dominated fossil fuel financing, accounting for 28% of all fossil fuel financing in 2022. JP Morgan Chase remains the world’s biggest funder of fossil fuels since the Paris Agreement, while Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America are still among the top 5 fossil financiers since 2016.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 18:50

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Could Falling Private Jet Demand Be Another Sign Rich Pull Back On Spending Ahead Of Economic Turbulence?
  Could Falling Private Jet Demand Be Another Sign Rich Pull Back On Spending Ahead Of Economic Turbulence?

  A slump in the use of private jets in the US could suggest that wealthy individuals are reducing their spending in response to the rising threat of recession in the next 12 months. 

  Bloomberg data shows private jet flights across the US peaked in early 2022 and have been sliding ever since. Takeoffs and landings fell 4.5% in the first quarter compared with the same quarter last year. The drop accelerated to 9.3% in April compared with an 8.6% decline in March, possibly a sign demand is crumbling. 

  

  With the industry under pressure and capital markets in a volatile state, Flexjet, the second-largest US operator of private jets behind NetJets Inc., was forced to shelve its SPAC last month. 

  Even though private jet demand is still above 2019 levels — many wealthy individuals have yet to return to commercial airlines in a post-pandemic era. Still, with all the new demand, the rich are cutting back in the first half of 2023 as recession risks rise. 

  Some industry insiders welcome the end of the private jet boom that took off during Covid. 

  Kenn Ricci, chairman of Flexjet, told Bloomberg: 

  “Thank God it’s not what it was last year.” He said his company saw annual flight hours jump to 145,000 from 90,000 before the pandemic. 

  Sliding private jet demand comes as recent debit and credit card data published by the Bank of America Institute shows wealthy folks are pulling back on spending. 

  

  Besides waning demand, a recent JPMorgan Chase report showed average asking price for private jets fell 1.2% in March from February to $12.8 million. There’s some easing of prices after the boom over the last few years. Still, the average asking price was 7% above prices from last year due to tight inventory. 

  A combination of wealthy folks reducing private jet flights and pulling back on spending comes as Bloomberg data shows recession probabilities for the next 12 months have reached 100%. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 02:45

• War – NATO Beaten By "A Restaurant Owner & A Bunch Of Convicts"?
  War – NATO Beaten By “A Restaurant Owner & A Bunch Of Convicts”?

  Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

  In Bakhmut/Artyomovsk, all of NATO, all 31 member nations, were defeated by a restaurant owner and a bunch of convicts, is how I saw someone describe it. That of course caricatures the situation somewhat (Wagner is well-organized), but it’s not that far off. And that spells a serious problem for NATO.

  All of those 31 members may have lots of control over their media, but in the end you can’t endlessly deny being defeated.

  

  So what will NATO do now? They will double down, and then again. And at the end of the “doubling down road” lie nuclear weapons. Not Russian nukes, because as my friend Wayne wrote the other day, their high-precision hypersonic missiles make nukes look crude and primitive, Middle Ages territory. But NATO/US never developed such weapons. They spent 10+ times as much money on weapons, still do, and -comparatively – ended up with bows and arrows.

  Nuclear bombs are good only to create widespread panic and destruction. But that includes your own destruction, because of Mutually Assured Destruction protocols. Which also go back almost as far as the bow and arrow. If you fire a nuclear missile, one very much like it will land on your head a few minutes later. End of story, end of you.

  US/NATO, the “collective west”, the hegemon, has lost. And has missed the moment when that occurred. Because hegemon equals hubris. Look at what they’ve all still been saying, and you notice they can’t see, and can’t acknowledge, that -and how- the world has changed. Not just this weekend, and the 9 months before, in Artyomovsk. It’s the entire story of Ukraine: it illustrates how the West “lost it”.

  The US plotted a coup and moved NATO’s borders east, and Russia reacted exactly how they said they would. No nukes, no nazis, no NATO. They got the last two, and know they can expect the first too. But still the west maintains Russia’s special operation was entirely unprovoked. Look, they’re not even listening anymore. They would like to negotiate and end all this, but negotiate about what? Putting AZOV back on the borders of the Donbass, so they can kill more Russians there? Not going to happen.

  It’s not only about weaponry, though that plays a major role: the hegemon can no longer make its demands based on military might. It’s been surpassed.

  Nor can it make demands based on the dollar’s reserve currency status, and it caused that itself. Weaponization of the currency has backfired to the extent that de-dollarization has become a process that can no longer be halted.

  The moment that Saudi prince MbS turned his back on “Joe Biden” is a milestone. Because once he did that, it was obvious many would follow. In central Asia, if you are Kazachstan or Uzbekistan, why on earth would you opt to go with G7/US/NATO instead of BRICS? Why go with the power that is waning, and not the one in ascendancy? Russia is your biggest neighbor, strongly connected to China which is building its BRI network in your region, and the nearby Arab states are about to join that network. Why would you link yourself to the G7? When you know all your neighbors do not?

  Then there are the voices that say the US will push for a bigger and wider war, perhaps including American troops. First, because NATO is losing, and second, because it could mean American boots on the ground, and presidents don’t lose elections in wartime. I’ve said before, I would expect them to go with Polish troops first, possibly on Polish territory too. But the Polish don’t appear all that eager anymore. And neither would any other European NATO country. German and French and Dutch troops are in no shape for war, and in the US over 70% of potential troops are grossly overweight and/or handicapped in some other way.

  Ukraine had perhaps the best boots on the ground force in Europe, financed and trained since 2014 by NATO, and they lost to a caterer and a loose group of hired hands. You’re not going to win that. Your only option is long distance weapons, missiles, planes, you name it. But NATO has no advantage in that over Russia. To put it mildly.

  The sole thing that’s in your favor is that Russia doesn’t seek to destroy you. They want to live in peace and trade with you. Same thing for China. NATO equals unipolar. But the world has moved towards multipolar. Ergo, NATO is obsolete. Ukraine will never reconquer its “lost” territories, and Zelensky will move to some property in Italy or Florida, never to be heard from again, unless perhaps in his obituary. The deaths of some 300,000 of his countrymen will be on his conscience.

  But also on that of all the “leaders” who have sent their second-hand armory to Kiev. They are just as responsible for all those deaths. The world has changed a lot in the past few years, and ignorance is no excuse if you are a “leader”, or a “Joe Biden”. Not even if you’re “just” a voter or reader. Those deaths will be on your head when you go see St. Peter at the gate.

  PS: Don’t be surprised if “Joe Biden” sends US boots on the ground anyway. No hegemon has ever given up power lightly. That part of the road is yours, US and EU voters. You may have to fill up the streets like you’ve never seen. The rest, the majority, of the world will be waiting to see if you do or not. They’re prepared for either of the two options

  *  *  *

  Support the Automatic Earth via Patreon.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 02:00

• COVID Vaccine-Injured Sue Biden Administration Over Censorship
  COVID Vaccine-Injured Sue Biden Administration Over Censorship

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A woman who suffered severe nerve damage after receiving a COVID-19 vaccination and four others with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 vaccine injuries launched a lawsuit against President Joe Biden and his administration on May 22.

  

  Top government officials violated the plaintiffs’ rights to free speech and peaceful assembly when they pressured Big Tech companies to crack down on people sharing their experience after receiving the COVID-19 vaccines, Brianne Dressen, the woman, and the other plaintiffs say.

  “Through threats, pressure, inducement, and coercion, Defendants now work in concert with social media companies to censor content the government deems ‘disinformation,’ ‘misinformation,’ and ‘malinformation’—a feat that the government could never lawfully accomplish alone,” the 124-page suit, filed in U.S. court in southern Texas, states.

  In addition to Biden, defendants include Rob Flaherty, a top adviser to Biden; White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre; the Department of Homeland Security; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; and Surgeon General Vivek Murthy.

  Defendants did not immediately respond to requests for comment, or could not be reached.

  Dressen hailed the lawsuit as a major development for those reporting to be suffering from vaccine injuries.

  “People injured by the COVID vaccines in the United States have not been able to file suit anywhere, under any circumstance,” she told The Epoch Times. “So this is a landmark case for Americans injured by the COVID vaccine.”

  COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers are largely immune from litigation in the United States due to the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act declaration entered by the Trump administration in early 2020. Most other vaccine manufacturers are also shielded from liability under the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act.

  Censorship

  The five people who experienced serious problems following vaccination are joined by Ernest Ramirez, whose son died after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine. They’ve repeatedly been censored by platforms like Twitter and Instagram as they tried to  share their stories.

  Ramirez, for instance, saw a GoFundMe that sought to raise funds for him to travel to Washington to share his son’s story taken down. GoFundMe claimed the account was removed for violating conduct the company prohibits. GoFundMe did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

  Another plaintiff, Nikki Holland, meanwhile, posted videos on TikTok regarding her experiences after being vaccinated, including the injuries she suffered. TikTok said the videos violated guidelines such as one against posting “violent and graphic content.”

  “When I really started to share and open up about things, I started to notice that a lot of stuff was being taken down and censored,” Holland told The Epoch Times. “That adds a whole new world of questioning to motive and what’s really going on because … why would you censor something you might need to look into to protect millions of others?”

  TikTok did not immediately return a query.

  The other plaintiffs are Shaun Barcavage, a former nurse who has been on disability leave since suffering medical problems after receiving Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine; Kristi Dobbs, a dental hygienist who suffered “debilitating medical injuries” after a shot of Pfizer’s vaccine; and Suzanna Newell, who is also on disability leave due to problems following vaccination.

  The right to peacefully assemble was also violated when Facebook and other big tech platforms disbanded groups where those with suspected or confirmed adverse reactions following vaccination gathered, according to the suit.

  One Facebook group called “A Wee Sprinkle of Hope” was shut down after a group member posted an infographic of symptoms people have experienced following COVID-19 vaccination and Dressen shared a link to a press conference at which she had shared about her symptoms.

  Facebook’s message to Dressen was that the group violated the company’s “Community Standards on misinformation that could cause physical harm.” Facebook did not immediately respond to a request for an explanation from the group.

  The removal of the groups robbed those suffering injuries after a COVID-19 vaccine of key gathering places for the exchange of information as they sought to figure out how to treat their often-debilitating conditions. Dressen said she is aware of multiple suicides as a result, because the censorship sparked feelings of helplessness amid the suffering.

  The deplatforming was “devastating, especially when you’re being censored and no one’s listening to you,” Holland said.

  Evidence

  Evidence unearthed in an ongoing case against the government, as well as internal Twitter documents, underpin the new case.

  Discovery in Missouri v. Biden litigation, lodged by the attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana against the Biden administration, has revealed that officials pressured WhatsApp, Facebook, and other technology companies to censor users talking about problems following COVID-19 vaccination, including posts that accurately outlined the lack of evidence for COVID-19 vaccines among certain populations.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 05/24/2023 – 00:05

• Unlike Washington, Americans Are Far From Their Personal 'Debt Ceiling'
  Unlike Washington, Americans Are Far From Their Personal ‘Debt Ceiling’

  When the New York Fed‘s latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit revealed that U.S. consumers’ credit card debt had not seen its usual post-holiday-season dip in the first quarter of 2023 all while total consumer debt had risen past $17 trillion for the first time, some reporters rang the alarm bells, saying that Americans were showing signs of financial stress amid high inflation and rising interest rates.

  And while it’s true that delinquency transition rates, i.e. the share of current debt becoming delinquent, increased for the fifth consecutive quarter for most types of credit, delinquency rates are still low, historically speaking, with less than 3 percent of total consumer debt delinquent, i.e. at least 30 days late.

  Moreover, one could argue that the absence of a drop in credit card balances in the first quarter is a sign of robust consumer spending rather than financial stress.

  After all, credit cards are mostly used as a payment method rather than a borrowing method these days.

  

  And lastly, as Statista’s Felix Richter reports, as opposed to their government, Americans are far from reaching their debt ceiling, at least as far as credit cards are concerned.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  With a total credit card balance of $986 billion and a total limit of $4.5 trillion, U.S. consumer actually have $3.5 trillion in untapped available credit on their cards.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 23:45

• Green Projects Hit Iron Wall
  Green Projects Hit Iron Wall

  Authored by James E. Hanley via RealClear Wire,

  Developers looking to build thousands of wind turbines off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast are coming up against a force even more relentless than the Atlantic winds: the Iron Law of Megaprojects, offering a warning of the trouble ahead for green-energy projects. 

  

  The Iron Law, coined by Oxford Professor Bent Flyvbjerg, says that “megaprojects” — which cost billions of dollars, take years to complete, and are socially transformative — reliably come in over budget, over time, over and over. 

  From Boston’s Big Dig to California’s high-speed rail to New York’s 12 years-overdue and 300% over-budget East Side Access rail project, big boondoggles routinely demonstrate the validity of the rule. 

  Offshore wind projects are not immune to the Iron Law, regularly experiencing vast cost overruns before a single watt is generated.  

  The New York state government, looking to replace oil- and gas-fired powerplants with hundreds of wind towers off Long Island, set out in 2019 to create an offshore wind supply chain from scratch, beginning with a massive state-funded turbine fabrication facility about 100 miles north of New York City on the Hudson River. 

  Ground still hasn’t even been broken, but the budget certainly has: The price of that Port of Albany facility has already doubled from $350 million to $700 million. An additional $100 million may be needed for equipment costs, raising the final price tag to $800 million. 

  A similar situation is playing out in New London, Connecticut, where a state-funded pier facility being built to support that state’s offshore wind buildout has more than doubled in price from an original estimate of $95 million to $250 million.   

  And in Massachusetts, developer Commonwealth Wind has asked the state to scrap its power purchase guarantees and rebid the project, arguing that inflation and supply chain problems mean the project is not financially viable under its current contracts. 

  Big projects tend to exceed their cost projections for many reasons. One is the unanticipated, and sometimes unprecedented, complexity of these projects. Further uncertainties and costs arise from the challenge of navigating the red tape of the modern regulatory state. In addition, there is the risk of inflation for projects that take years, sometimes decades, to develop. Underlying all these is often a failure to spend enough time on careful planning that treats reality as a fundamental constraint. 

  But sometimes project sponsors may simply worry that accurate cost projections could scare away public support at the outset, and choose to employ what Prof. Flyvbjerg politely calls “strategic misrepresentation.” 

  As former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown said, “If people knew the real cost from the start, nothing would ever be approved. . . . Start digging a hole and make it so big, there’s no alternative to coming up with the money to fill it in.”  

  If that sounds too cynical, note that the current Chair of the Connecticut Port Authority has admitted that when officials first proposed the pier facility, they already knew it would cost more than they were claiming.   

  Ironically, the New York and Connecticut projects aren’t even big enough to be considered megaprojects, and yet even they have run into the Iron Law of being over budget and behind schedule. The challenges won’t diminish with bigger and more ambitious green energy projects. 

  In New York, the state’s huge Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act — of which the Port of Albany project is the first substantial investment — is projected to cost between $270 and $290 billion. At that price it is a gigaproject composed of numerous individual megaprojects. 

  The benefits, mostly in the form of greenhouse gas reductions, are supposed to be up to $415 billion. But if the overall cost of the policy climbs by merely 55 percent, which is in the normal range for megaprojects (and much less than the Port of Albany cost overrun), the costs will exceed the benefits, creating a net loss for New Yorkers.  

  If costs balloon to twice the initial estimates, which is not uncommon, the state stands to spend more than more than a hundred billion dollars more than gained in benefits That would be a loss of over $30,000 per New York household by 2050.  

  And that’s assuming the benefits are as good as promised. It gets even worse if, as is common, the benefits have been overstated.  

  The tale of megaprojects is a cautionary one for the whole country as we attempt to transition away from fossil fuels. Cost estimates for a nationwide transition span from $4.7 trillion to over $60 trillion – almost three times U.S. GDP. Such uncertainty should give us pause for thought before jumping wildly into the financial unknown. 

  If we’re not careful, we may be digging Willie Brown-style holes, and politically and financially we may find ourselves in too deep to ever get ourselves out. 

  James E. Hanley is a Fellow at the Empire Center for Public Policy

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 23:25

• Pentagon Can't Account For Thousands Of Ultra-Expensive F-35 Parts Globally
  Pentagon Can’t Account For Thousands Of Ultra-Expensive F-35 Parts Globally

  Just three weeks ago Defense News published an extensive investigative report which posed the question in its headline, Lockheed eyes new F-35 parts deal, but can it handle wartime demands? The report introduced: 

  By the end of the year, a new and unusual deal for the F-35 fighter′s spare parts could be in place — one that would flip the current supply model on its head.

  If the proposed performance-based logistics contract works the way F-35 manufacturer Lockheed Martin has promised, it will save the government money, improve the availability of spare parts and give the company greater flexibility on how it assists repairs, such as making it easier to fix a broken part without fabricating a new one.

  Fast-forward to Tuesday, and the congressional watchdog Government Accountability Office (GOA) released a devastating report which reveals the entire question of “saving the government money” to be laughable and way off. 

  

  Bloomberg writes based on the new GOA findings that “The Pentagon can’t account for hundreds of thousands of spare parts worth millions of dollars that are stored worldwide for the US and allies for its costliest weapon, the F-35 jet, according to congressional auditors.” So perhaps the Pentagon should think about simply locating the missing ones first before a giant Lockheed parts overhaul is put into place. 

  Even long before this, going years back, the controversial program to develop the ultra-costly stealth multirole combat aircraft produced periodic headlines like the following in 2020: The Pentagon’s $35 Trillion Accounting Black Hole.

  The fact that the Department of Defense has failed to pass a DOD-wide audit for the fifth consecutive year has compounded the problem which has been months or years in the making, to the tune of millions billions lost – which could eventually add up to a one-and-a-half trillion dollars black hole. 

  This as the GOA report has confirmed the Pentagon’s F-35 program office doesn’t provide oversight for the parts: 

  Unlike scores of GAO reports and other assessments that analyze the fighter jet’s cost, schedule and flying performance, the new audit delved into the more mundane and largely invisible work of supporting the aircraft once it’s delivered to international customers. The operation and support bill for the F-35 may reach an estimated $1.4 trillion through 2088.

  Allies don’t own parts and tap into the Defense Department’s worldwide shared pool of spares, including engines, tires, landing gear and items such as bolts, screws and fasteners. The Pentagon’s F-35 program office doesn’t maintain accountability over the parts, “the total value of which is unknown,” the GAO said.

  It is manufacturer Lockheed Martin which solely “tracks” the records (supposedly), given the Pentagon has been “unable to provide the cost, total quantity, and locations of spare parts in the global spares pool.”

  

  According to the GOA report: 

  The lack of visibility into the inventory “increases the risk of misstatement on DOD’s financial statements and the risk of mismanagement of the F-35 global spares pool,” it said.

  All of this comes the same week that multiple media reports and former top US officials have highlighted that contractor price-gouging is common and routine when it comes to the gargantuan defense budget, at taxpayer’s expense of course. For example, former Pentagon insiders told Newsweek that the Biden administration’s ‘blank check’ approach to Ukraine has resulted in a massive arms flow to Kiev “no matter the expense.” Naturally this has resulted in diminished incentive to engage in serious and timely audits for things like expensive jet parts, and to determine where they are globally. 

  Lockheed continues to be front and center in these whistleblower and former DoD official tell-alls…

  In 2015, Army negotiators discovered that Lockheed Martin and Boeing overcharged the Pentagon and U.S. allies by hundreds of millions of dollars.

  “Is it really any different than not giving a Marine enough bullets to put in his clip?” said Shay Assad. https://t.co/ABmphmYzjz pic.twitter.com/snehFTHNwi

  — 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) May 21, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile, the US continues to modernize its fleet of fighter jets and strategically place them in key US allies, such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea, creating a ‘friends circle’ of fifth-generation fighters around Russia and China.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 23:05

• What A US Default Would Mean For The Repo Market
  What A US Default Would Mean For The Repo Market

  Two weeks ago we published a lengthy report looking at the hypothetical consequences of a US default – including “Clearinghouse Collapse And Shockwave Of Catastrophic Treasury Margin Calls” – which again are purely hypothetical: as we first said last week…

  As a reminder, the US can not default: tax receipts are more than enough to cover debt maturities and interest. Those 25 million govt/deep state workers and Ukraine wire transfers may not be so lucky though.

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 16, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … and as Stifel’s Brian Gardner confirmed just a few days later…

  Federal revenues cover only 75 percent of outlays so at some point, without an increase in the debt limit, Treasury will be unable to pay all of the government’s bills.  It seems clear that Treasury will prioritize the payment of principal and interest on U.S. Treasuries, so the chances of a default on Treasuries is remote.  Also, it is unfathomable that the government would not pay Social Security recipients or meet payroll of the American military. On any given day, however, Treasury would likely have to delay payments of some obligations. Depending on who the creditor is (a government contractor, veterans’ benefits, other social safety net payments, etc.), delayed payments would likely increase political pressure which would, in turn, increase the chances of reaching a debt ceiling deal, but would also be accompanied by some economic disruption and possibly a downgrade in the credit rating of U.S. government debt. 

  … because despite all the posturing, the US can and will prioritize debt and interest payments and avoid a technical default, even if it means that some 20 million deep state bureaucrats go unpaid for a week or two.

  But since we are dealing with hypotheticals, below is a quick snapshot courtesy of Curvature Securities’ analyst Scott Skyrm who looks at what the impact of a US default (again, purely hypotehtical) would be on the repo market.

  As Skyrm explains, in the Repo market, the debt ceiling dynamics boils down to the fact that no cash investor wants to hold a defaulted Treasury as collateral. As a result, cash investors will pull their cash from the market as the drop-dead date approaches, which according to Janet Yellen may be as soon as June 1, for the simple reason that there is a massive $80 billion net cash outflow from the Treasury on that day, one which tips the cash balance into the red.

  

  Going back to the repo market, ahead of a potential X-Date, cash investors who pull their money from the repo market will move to the fed funds market or into Money Market Funds. Even more cash will then flow into the Fed’s RRP facility, sucking up liquidity from the market.

  When cash leaves the Repo market, there will be a spike in funding pressure, and overnight rates could move to the top of the target range – trading around 5.25%-5.30%.

  

  While not there yet, Skyrm observes that the Repo market is starting to feel the effects of cash leaving. Term GC bids are thin and rates continue to tick higher each day.

  Meanwhile, no one will accept short-dated bill collateral for term trades. This is why there is now a record, gaping chasm between Bills maturing on May 30, and those maturing just 48 hours later, on June 1 (or, rather, not maturing).

  

  Also, customers have sold so much term collateral though June, July, and August that there are few bids left and they’re all substantially higher than just a few days ago.

  Yet, curiously, given the technical default issues with early June bills, one would think they would have substantial shorts. That’s not the case, despite the unprecedented divergence in May vs June bills. In fact, all of the early June bills are trading between 5 and 10 basis points below GC.

  Then, of course, who is willing to short-sell bills trading between 50 and 100 basis points above GC?  What happens if you are right, and the US does default. Good luck getting paid on your shorts…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 22:45

• University Of California Moves Toward Hiring Illegal Immigrants In Violation Of Federal Law
  University Of California Moves Toward Hiring Illegal Immigrants In Violation Of Federal Law

  The University of California (UC) system is working towards providing jobs to illegal immigrants despite a federal law banning the practice.

  

  In a Thursday statement by UC President Michael Drake and Board of Regents Chair Richard Leib, the university system announced the appointment of a working group that will consider relevant issues to providing employment opportunities to all students regardless of immigration status. By November, the group is expected to have developed an implementation plan and legal strategy which will include the next steps.

  “The University is committed to ensuring that all students, regardless of their immigration status, can pursue and attain a world-class UC education,” reads the statement. “This should include providing enriching student employment opportunities to all students.“

  According to The Hill, “The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 established civil and criminal penalties for employers who knowingly hire undocumented immigrants and those not authorized to work in the United States. “

  Yet, the LA Times reports that UCLA legal scholars have a theory that the law does not specifically apply to states and state entities such as UC.

  According to Regent John Perez, the UC will need time to figure out how to implement the plan, telling the Times “this is too important to get wrong.”

  But the university could face legal action over its plan and has been considering any potential public backlash it would receive and the legal risk for faculty and staff who hire the students. 

  Rep. Darrel Issa (R-Calif.) wrote a letter to California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) earlier this week to warn against the plan, arguing that the Supreme Court has repeatedly held that federal immigration law tops state or local laws. He said the plan could cause UC to lose federal funding and hurt its students. -The Hill

  There are around 44,000 students not covered by DACA who attend college in California, of which around 4,000 attend UC, according to the Times. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 22:25

• Parents Sue Elite Schools For 'Indoctrinating' Their Kids With DEI 'Bait And Switch'
  Parents Sue Elite Schools For ‘Indoctrinating’ Their Kids With DEI ‘Bait And Switch’

  Angry parents are suing elite private schools for ‘indoctrinating’ their children with so-called ‘diversity, equity and inclusion’ (DEI), Bloomberg reports.

  

  Following the murder of George Floyd, the $50,000 per year Brentwood School in Los Angeles announced that it was reimagining its purpose “with an eye toward anti-racism” and DEI. Parent Jerome Eisenberg, whose daughter attends the school, called it a “bait and switch” on parents – suing the school last year for breach of contract, civil rights violations and emotional distress.

  “The curriculum change shifted away from teaching students critical thinking skills — how to think — and started indoctrinating them into what to think, based on Brentwood’s preferred political fad of the moment,” reads Eisenberg’s lawsuit – which entered private arbitration in November.

  The issue – which has become a major point of contention in red states such as Florida, where governor Ron DeSantis (R) has fought to ban DEI in public schools – has now become a nationwide effort by concerned parents to protect their children from what they see as a racist education that makes white students a lifelong target, and uses historical revisionism to sow seeds of division.

  “There is an increased appetite for parents using the legal process to fight for their kids in a way that just wasn’t as prevalent before,” said attorney Sara Goldsmith Schwartz of Massachusetts-based Schwartz Hannum PC – which frequently represents private schools.

  Eisenberg’s lawyer, David Pivtorak, says he believes that legal complaints over DEI in schools have increased, and that the actual number may be understated due to arbitration clauses such as the one at Brentwood.

  According to the NAACP’s Legal Defense Fund, the legal battles are painting a “misleading” picture about DEI.

  “The majority of parents want their children to attend a school that is diverse and inclusive,” said Jin Hee Lee, director of strategic initiatives. “and the majority of Americans understand that we have a very tragic legacy of slavery and Jim Crow and racial subjugation that we’re still dealing with in this country.”

  Parents who oppose DEI in private face an uphill battle. While parents whose kids go to public school can argue that the government is infringing on their 1st Amendment rights, those with kids attending private schools largely waive those rights.

  “Private schools are bound by their own policies and not the US Constitution,” according to law professor Jennifer Rippner of Indiana University.

  When parents do sue private schools, it’s usually for breach of contract, according to New Hampshire education lawyer Linda Johnson, who represents independent schools and consults with them on managing their legal risk. The process sometimes starts off with “a 10-page, single-space letter addressing everything that the parent thought the school did wrong to try to justify a repayment of tuition,” she said.

  Many of the disputes arise out of school disciplinary action, Johnson said. In the current environment, that can have political overtones. -Bloomberg

  At Manhattan’s $60,000 per year Spence School, parents Adam and Michelle Parker sued in 2019 over disciplining their daughter for posting a text exchange on Instagram in which they joked about dressing up as slaves and indigenous people for Halloween. Her punishment was a half-day “in-home- reflection,” while the school held several grade-wide assemblies to shame the girl for what she had done.

  The Parkers say their daughter was mocking racists, not promoting racism, and that Spence disciplined her before even seeing the post. In doing so, they claim that the school perpetuated a “false narrative” and “had gotten it wrong” – in addition to failing to convene a “community standards committee” as stipulated in their enrollment contract.

  While the suit was dismissed in 2020, a New York appeals court revived a breach-of-contract claim.

  According to Johnson, the education lawyer, suits which focus on narrow claims of unequal or arbitrary discipline against private school have the highest chances of success. If the school’s handbook lays out guidelines for infractions but doesn’t include a disclaimer to the effect of “we maintain the flexibility to handle them the way we think is necessary under the circumstances,” the school may face legal peril, she said.

  That said, parents of kids attending elite schools will have a hard time challenging curricula, according to Philadelphia-based education lawyer, Steven Ludwig.

  “If a person doesn’t like what is being taught, they can go somewhere else.”

  Except, as Bloomberg notes, that’s not always so easy.

  Private schools that have embraced DEI are frequently also those with the strongest academic reputations and the best records of placing graduates in Ivy League and other elite colleges — which themselves have been criticized as bastions of wokeness. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, a noted anti-DEI crusader, was called out for hypocrisy when it emerged that he sent his daughters to a Houston prep school that teaches DEI.

  Former investment banker Andrew Gutmann caused a stir two years ago when he wrote a letter to other parents at Manhattan’s Brearley School urging them to reject Brearley’s “obsession with race” and saying he was pulling his daughter, Lauren, from the top-ranked school, where tuition is about $60,000. 

  Brearley head Jane Fried shot out an email calling the letter “deeply offensive and harmful” and reaffirming the school’s commitment to being “inclusive” and “antiracist.”

  In an interview, Gutmann said his family wasn’t “looking for a conservative education,” but they “just want what anybody would’ve used to call a traditional liberal arts education.”

  

  Since withdrawing his daughter from Brearley, Gutmann said it’s been “nearly impossible” to find a school that is both academically rigorous and not “politicized.” After looking at private schools in New Jersey and Florida, he opted to home school – and will be sending her to a UK boarding school in the fall.

  Now, Gutmann is running as a Republican in Florida’s 22nd congressional district, which includes former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. His campaign announcement begins with his letter to Brearley.

  “My words were read by millions of people across America, and they helped ignite what we now call the parents’ movement and the fight against woke education,” said Gutmann, who called out his allies in the fight against DEI – including Florida-based rights group, Moms for Liberty, which has been at the forefront of efforts to ban DEI-based books and influence school boards in favor of conservatives.

  According to McGovern, the attorney, “Every school across America, and in many ways around the world, is dealing with this increased polarization.“

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 21:45

• "Once Again The Apparently Unthinkable Becomes The Inevitable"
  “Once Again The Apparently Unthinkable Becomes The Inevitable”

  By Michael Every of Rabobank

  Prepare To Be Buffetted

  Today’s Daily is not about Warren Buffet but geopolitics’ impact on markets, analogized with a buffet.

  Dig into this: the G7 took us a step towards decoupling: they say “de-risking”, but it’s same thing. This is ‘not about keeping China down, but lifting the Global South up’ by diversifying strategic imports and exports. But: (i) who can say what’s a strategic when little things can be – for want of a nail, as they say; (ii) friendshoring will still find China supplying key inputs to other EM, and the impetus will be to move the whole supply chain, upstream to downstream; and (iii) diversification means zero-sum math – import more from one country, you import less from others, ceteris paribus, and export less to one country, you export more to others. Yes, the G7 can friendshore and China still be better off… but only if it shifts to consumption, services, and imports rather than production, manufacturing, and exports. Which it won’t/can’t.

  If Chinese consumers had a CNY every time they were told they will drive growth, they would be driving it. Yet Xi says China’s focus is on supply chains and key industries, not real estate, services, and finance; and those “lying flat” must get married and/or go to the countryside. That economic model means investment/exports >consumption/imports, and it can’t be a win-win – it’s mercantilism. It’s like tourists at a hotel buffet who only take plates of shrimp, no carbs, soup, or veggies, and the restaurant owner isn’t allowed to go to a Chinese hotel and reciprocate at their buffet. As a result, we rapidly end up with different restaurants for different clientele.

  Yes, China’s development model was previously used by the West, who gorged at the global buffet before being into DEI – while still not sharing any shrimp, or vaccines. But history shows that system always ends up in a food-fight, literally. It doesn’t matter if President Biden wants to dial back (“Biden Sees Coming Thaw with China, Even as He Rallies Allies Against Beijing”): the mercantilist dynamic won’t allow it. If the US says, “Beat you to the shrimp!” and China that “the international community does not and will not accept the G7-dominated Western rules that seek to divide the world based on ideologies and values,” while calling UK PM Sunak a “US eunuch”, things only get nastier.

  Yes, a Bloomberg op-ed from Niall Ferguson argues the US should use détente to buy time to rearm and reshore. Yet if China knows the US needs time, why not act? Note that it banned Micron from the US for security reasons just after Biden’s olive branch. Expect more of that when China’s Commerce minister meets USTR Tai this week, who will say, “People who only take shrimp have shellfish habits.”

  “It’s not rational for China to escalate,” say voices shocked at The Wall Street Journal noting “China’s Xi Mimics Mao’s Crisis Response in Sweeping Indoctrination Drive” and the Guardian saying, “China crackdown on business has Maoist roots.” The same article quotes a professor of Chinese management at Cambridge University saying the recent crackdown on consultants, etc., lies in CCP ideology, and one must “dig into the Maoist roots in Chinese institutions and political economy to try to understand ideas that Xi has””. That’s what I wrote in 2021’s ‘Pro-Fund or Profound Revolution?’. The CEOs and Wall Street asset managers who still don’t do so have perhaps eaten so much shrimp they now think like one.

  And China can escalate in lots of different ways.

  Ironically, it could even buffet the US ahead with big fiscal stimulus for its stale economy, boosting Western commodity inflation on top of that from its re/friend-shoring into the 2024 election. Who knows if that is on the menu ahead, but Beijing is trying to cook up imported commodities paid in CNY via PBOC swaps, which would give it more room to do so. Yes, CNY would likely slump on the extra policy loosening –which would also be an attempt to push out more exports– and US tariffs, and rates, would rise in tandem. The Fed’s Bullard and Kashkari will both back that move for sure, seeing as one talked of two more rate hikes this year yesterday, and the other that a June pause shouldn’t mean an end to policy tightening. Daly was more cautious, as was Bostic, while Barkin is on the fence.

  We can also expect crabby moves from the US Congress, which is not pro détente.  Recent testimony there from former USTR Lighthizer shows how sentiment has shifted on Capitol Hill: “Since 2001, we have directly transferred more than $6 trillion to China through our annual trade deficits…During the Cold War with the Soviet Union, it would have been inconceivable for the US to allow such a massive wealth transfer to happen,” from the guy supposed to be pro trade, and, even more bluntly, “When I’ve talked to someone who doesn’t believe they’re such a serious threat I’m always like, ‘Oh, you must have some investments over there – I get it.” US CEOs or asset managers with China investments must be shifting uncomfortably in their seats, and not just because the Shanghai stock exchange has only returned 4% over the last five years of ‘buy now!’ sell-side notes: indeed, they fear ‘The China Hawk in Washington Rattling Corporate Boardrooms’.

  Of course, it hardly needs saying that the US and G7 are not up for détente with Russia. National Security Advisor Sullivan just stated it’s okay for Ukraine to use Western missiles to attack Crimea, because that’s not part of Russia, and President Biden signed off on F-16s for Kyiv: once again the apparently unthinkable becomes the inevitable, and at scale given the number of F-16s available. Note that as Australia is experimenting with a 4-day week(!), Russia may go to 6!

  So, the unsavory dish today is the warning not to buy geopolitical ‘risk-on’ fairy tales. The inedible item left at the far end of buffet, to be recycled into a pasta bake by Friday, is that this matters for inflation and rates to the upside, or a lack of downside.

  Help yourself, if so.

  And now, for those who think politics doesn’t impact on markets, back to the drama of the US debt ceiling – which also makes my point. As does that Warren Buffet sold his shares in Taiwan’s TSMC on perceived fat geopolitical tail risks; The Times alleges national politics influenced LIBOR lower; and it is again made clear that the Pentagon was watching SVB all the way.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 21:25

• What If AI Ultimately Creates Many More Jobs Than It Destroys
  What If AI Ultimately Creates Many More Jobs Than It Destroys

  Two months ago, Goldman sparked uproar across Wall Street when the bank forecast that the AI revolution could lead to as many as 300 million highly skilled (or at least not menial labor) layoffs across the US and Europe and predicted that some 18% of global work could be automated with AI…

  

  … with the biggest impact falling on legal and admin jobs, with social science and architects and engineers also in danger of being made obsolete (much more in the full Goldman note available here to pro subs).

  

  Goldman’s back of the envelope calculation inspired none other than hedge fund legend Steve “expert networks” Cohen to predict that the market is going up as a result of the margin boost that AI-driven layoffs will unleash.

  As Bloomberg reported, the billionaire added that he’s worried about the “types of jobs that will be displaced,” but more broadly, he expects profit margins to improve, which would reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to curb inflation with additional interest rate hikes. This would, in turn, boost markets, he said. Of course, “boosting profit margins” is a polite way of saying mass layoffs are coming.

  Cohen joined other hedge fund managers who have expressed enthusiasm for AI. Stan Druckenmiller and Lee Ainslie both took positions in chipmaker Nvidia a beneficiary of the AI boom, during the first quarter, in anticipation of even more AI-driven upside .

  “AI is very, very real and could be every bit as impactful as the internet,” Druckenmiller said last week at the 2023 Sohn Investment Conference.

  But what if this growing consensus is wrong, and what if AI ends up creating more jobs than it destroys?

  That’s the argument made by Deutsche Bank head of global research Jim Reid, who has written a lengthy report explaining why “History suggests AI will ultimately create not destroy jobs” (and available to pro subs ).

  As Reid reminds us, there is a long history of resistance to technology. As far back as 1589, Queen Elizabeth I of England refused to grant the inventor of a mechanical knitting machine a patent lest it put manual knitters out of work. Such concerns were accelerated by the arrival of the Industrial Revolution. In 1772, Thomas Mortimer wrote how machines would “exclude the labor of thousands of the human race, who are usefully employed”. Famously, in the early 19th century a group of English textile workers known as the Luddites destroyed machinery, in part because of fears it would take their jobs away (they were right). Similar narratives have subsequently resurfaced on the eve of every major technological breakthrough.

  However, Reid argues that history tells us that technology does not create unemployment, at least not in the long term. He illustrates this by looking at long-term unemployment data, using the median of the G7 countries. It shows that unemployment has oscillated based on economic cycles, rather than any technological waves. In fact, today’s median G7 unemployment rate of 3.8% is beneath the 5% UK rate at the start of the series in 1755.

  

  “So even though virtually all of the jobs of 1755 no longer exist, the automation of different tasks did not lead to an ever-increasing spiral of unemployment” Reid argues and concludes that “technology has always created the wealth and time to free up labor for alternative more productive employment and created industries and jobs we never knew we needed at the time.”

  While this is correct, what Reid’s analysis ignores is the social upheaval and short-term spikes in unemployment after any major new technological shift. Indeed, what his charts omits is the countless wars since 1755: maybe his unemployment rate is so low because it counts all the mass mobilization and army units as employed workers (it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch: after all the Biden admin counts a record number of multiple jobholders as individual workers, allowing the admin to benefit from a record low unemployment rate). That said, there is a tongue-in-cheek admission that not all may be as rosy as represented when Reid says that “it is no coincidence that unemployment is associated with various negative health outcomes.” Like war?

  We are curious to see just how far the current social safety net – whether in the US or China – will stretch when there is a sudden spike in unemployment, and how many of the democrat-controlled coastal cities will burn down when millions of people suddenly find themselves without a job (even if eventually AI will result in potentially better jobs for most, albeit with a lot of retraining).

  Could this time be different? Reid concedes that “there are obvious arguments why it might be given the speed of possible adoption of AI and the type of jobs it could put at risk” which are critical caveats: after all, if it takes 5 years to retrain someone to find gainful employment in an AI world, it’s the same as an unemployment shock; and in this economy in which virtually nobody has any idea how to deal with a lengthy stretch of unemployment, we doubt the ending would be happy.

  Still, Reid is optimistic and concludes that “even if there are short-term disruptions to labor markets, we desperately need the productivity-boosting potential that AI brings. In turn this will soon likely create more opportunity, jobs and wealth for society.”

  We are confident that the Steve Cohens and CEOs of the world agree, even if those 300 million workers who are about to be made obsolete may have second thoughts.

  Much more in DB’s full note available here to pro subs.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 21:05

• Hopkins: The War On Reality (Revisited)
  Hopkins: The War On Reality (Revisited)

  Authored by CJ Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

  Reality isn’t what it used to be. It never really was, but that’s another story. This one isn’t about reality per se. It’s about the War on Reality, the one we’re in the middle of, the war that started when the War on Terror was cancelled in the Summer of 2016. It’s actually an extension and an evolution of the War on Terror, and the War on Populism, and the rollout of the New Normal in 2020 … but that is also another story. I want to focus on the war that is raging currently, on the Internet, in people’s workplaces, homes, among friends and families, and in people’s heads. I’m pretty sure you know the war I’m talking about, regardless of which “side” you feel you are on.

  

  The War on Reality is a civil war, but it is much more than just a civil war. It is an asymmetrical, polymorphous, metastatic, multiplicitous war. An ontological free-for-all. It has no conventions or rules of engagement. There are no battle lines. The battle is everywhere. Alliances shift from day to day. It is chaos, unrelenting, inescapable chaos. An omnipresent, immaterial, omnipotent organism attacking itself. It is continual, and completely unwinnable. It is unwinnable because it has already been won. It ended in victory the moment it began, and now we’re doomed to go on fighting it forever, or until some less ethereal leviathan is born, or reborn, out of its ashes.

  Unfortunately, that’s rather likely, the less ethereal leviathan scenario. It may not come about in my lifetime — and, selfishly, I’m hoping it doesn’t — but this state of affairs cannot continue indefinitely. As I wrote in an essay in June of 2021 …

  “The global capitalist ruling classes are implementing a new official ideology, in other words, a new ‘reality.’ That’s what an official ideology is. It’s more than just a set of beliefs. Anyone can have any beliefs they want. Your personal beliefs do not constitute ‘reality.’ In order to make your beliefs ‘reality,’ you need to have the power to impose them on society. You need the power of the police, the military, the media, scientific ‘experts,’ academia, the culture industry, the entire ideology-manufacturing machine. There is nothing subtle about this process. Decommissioning one ‘reality’ and replacing it with another is a brutal business. Societies grow accustomed to their ‘realities.’ We do not surrender them willingly or easily. Normally, what’s required to get us to do so is a crisis, a war, a state of emergency, or … you know, a deadly global pandemic. During the changeover from the old ‘reality’ to the new ‘reality,’ the society is torn apart. The old ‘reality’ is being disassembled and the new one has not yet taken its place. It feels like madness, and, in a way, it is. For a time, the society is split in two, as the two ‘realities’ battle it out for dominance. ‘Reality’ being what it is (i.e., monolithic), this is a fight to the death. In the end, only one ‘reality’ can prevail.”

  I wrote that almost two years ago, in the relative calm before the storm of fascistic, hate-drunk mass hysteria and systematic official persecution that was unleashed on “the Unvaccinated” in the months that followed. If your memory of 2021 is hazy, my year-end column, The Year of the New Normal Fascist, or this video compilation by Matt Orfalea might help sharpen it back up. Since then, the madness of the reality-changeover in progress has intensified, albeit somewhat more subtly … or at least Keith Olbermann is not shrieking hatred like a meth-addled Goebbels.

  GloboCap, Inc. and its innumerable subsidiaries, agents, assigns, political puppets, media goons, and other loyal minions are desperately endeavoring to enshrine the official Covid-19 narrative in the annals of “history.” According to new figures from the WHO, “almost 15 million excess deaths” (or “a total of 336.8 million lost life-years”) had been caused by the virus by the end of 2021, none of which had anything to do with ventilators, or the classification of anyone who died of anything (i.e., cancer, heart disease, an auto accident, etc.) who had also tested positive as a “Covid death.” Previously perfectly healthy young people are dropping dead left and right from heart attacks and other “natural” (or “undisclosed”) causes that have nothing to do with the experimental “vaccines” that they did not need but were coerced into taking, which saved millions or 100 million lives. The masks that didn’t work worked, except that they didn’t, but that was only if you studied how they worked in reality. Being locked down, forced to wear medical-looking masks, gaslighted and terrorized by official propaganda, bullied, segregated, censored, demonized, and otherwise systematically tortured, was actually good for people’s mental health, except for “people with existing mental health conditions, and children, and people with disabilities, and adolescents, and people without financial or social security nets.”

  Meanwhile, cognitively dissonant New Normals are taking to the Internet to claim that no one knew better at the time, and that, OK, sure, “mistakes were made,” but if we “science-denying conspiracy theorists,” who they censored, demonized, and systematically persecuted for over two years, had just spoken up …

  We did tell you so in 2020, asshole. You demonized us, censored us, segregated us, got us fired from our jobs, sent in the goon squads to beat us and arrest us when we protested, shut down our bank accounts to punish us, and so on. It’s all documented in books like this … https://t.co/baE9Ck8197 pic.twitter.com/k55SLJ0uDP

  — Consent Factory (@consent_factory) May 19, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  I could go on, but you get the picture … or, rather, you either do or you don’t. Because it’s not just the folks at GloboCap, Inc. that are fanatically waging this War on Reality. Everybody and their brother is trying to ram their “reality” down everyone’s throat. You got the “Viruses Do Not Exist” people. You got the “There Are No Neo-Nazis in Ukraine” people. The “Putin Is Our Savior” people. The Vote Blue Cult. The Multipolar people. The Transgendered People’s Army. The Doomsday Clock Hucksters. The Folks Who Still Listen to NPR. The Insurrection Truthers. The Insurrection Deniers. The 9/11 Truthers. The Moon-Landing Truthers. The Cult of Trump. The Church of Russiagate. The Rothschild Obsessives. The Anti-Racism Racists. The Anti-Anti-Semitism Anti-Semites. The Mass Formation Movement. The Cult of Marx. The Cult of Capital. The Climate Change Fanatics. The Musk Cult. The list goes on and on.

  Historically, we humans have not done very well in such psychotic ontological environments. When “reality” is shattered into a thousand little shards, and things fall apart, and the center does not hold, we tend to get rather scared, and confused, and agitated. We start to panic. We try to put “reality” back together again. This does not work. This worsens our panic. We start looking around for a new “reality.” We start looking for a savior, a leader, a Führer, someone with a vision, and the will, and the power, to impose a new “reality” on the ontological chaos that is making us so confused and agitated, and scared, and angry, and restore some sense of ideological cohesion so that we don’t have to think about “reality” on a moment-by-moment basis anymore.

  This is the time of dime-store messiahs, tinpot tyrants, zealots, gurus, hustlers, hosers, scam artists, quacks, snake oil salesmen of every variety, fanatical revolutionary movements, new religions and political parties, and so on. Typically, eventually, once the hapless masses have been repeatedly duped, and bilked, and betrayed, and gaslighted and humiliated to the point where they can’t even think anymore, literally cannot think because their brains are broken, and they just want someone to make it all stop … well, to rephrase an old Buddhist platitude, “when the masses are ready, the despot will appear.”

  I think you know how this story ends.

  The fascinating thing is, GloboCap, Inc. (i.e., global capitalism, corporatism, or whatever you need to call the supranational network of global corporations, governments, banks, military contractors, media and entertainment conglomerates, pharmaceutical behemoths, assorted oligarchs, non-governmental governing entities, etc., that are currently running the world) cannot afford to let that happen, and is tirelessly working to prevent that from happening.

  Traditional (i.e., 20th Century) totalitarianism does not work for GloboCap, Inc. Capitalism, though it can adapt to anything, has never been inherently inclined toward fascism or any other form of totalitarianism. Totalitarianism is a value-coding machine. Its objective is to completely code society with its values, its official ideology (i.e., “reality”). Every aspect of society, not just politics, culture, and so on, but the most intimate aspects of people’s lives.

  Capitalism is a value-decoding machine. Its objective is to completely decode society of any values that impede the free flows of capital, rendering everything and everyone a de facto commodity, transforming societies into markets. It can adapt to totalitarianism and other varieties of despotism when necessary, but left to its own devices, or … you know, granted dominion over the entire Earth, and every creeping thing that creeps upon it, it sets about decoding and destabilizing values, destabilizing value and meaning itself, until, ultimately, everything means anything, or nothing, or whatever the market determines it means or is worth at any given moment.

  The point is, the ongoing War on Reality is not a means to an end. It is the end. The official ideology (i.e., “reality”) that GloboCap, Inc. is implementing is not a set of official values or beliefs. It is the absence of any values or beliefs, any non-commodifiable values and beliefs. Values and beliefs are fine, as long as they’re just empty signs, logos, meaningless identity statements, and not principles and beliefs you are trying to live by, and that you are crazy enough to fight to preserve. Those kind of values have to go, so that the people of the New Normal future can be free to believe that war is peace, ignorance is strength, two plus two equals five, men have periods, Donald Trump is a Russian secret agent and literally Hitler, Vladimir Putin (who is also literally Hitler) invaded Ukraine for no reason whatsoever, or certainly not because of anything to do with GloboCap, Inc., or NATO, or the non-existent Ukrainian neo-Nazis, and then destroyed his own pipelines in the Baltic Sea, or whatever blatantly ridiculous nonsense they (i.e., the people of the New Normal future) are told to pretend or to actually believe by Rachel Maddow and the other talking heads you saw in Orfalea’s video.

  And, if that doesn’t sound like your kind of future, or reality, the “everything is a floating signifier” reality … no worries, you can always drop out of the “mainstream” and join the carnival of “conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers, Covid deniers, Russiagate deniers, climate change deniers, disinformationists, malinformationists, transphobes, white supremacists, violent domestic extremists,” and assorted other freaks and curiosities of nature that are actively being quarantined, or are quarantining themselves, in ideological ghettos where normal consumers never have to see them and they (i.e., we, the deviants and freaks) are preyed upon by legions of charlatans, demagogues, agents provocateurs, and other such spiritual and emotional parasites, until the day comes when we find ourselves spastically tweeting about an 86-year-old Chomsky chasing naked sex slaves around Epstein’s island, ripped to the gills on Viagra and Ecstasy, and probably freshly harvested adrenochrome!

  That, or you could withdraw from society completely, and go live in a Kaczynski cabin in Montana, or Idaho, or wherever folks are doing that these days, as several of my readers advised me recently, and forage for berries, and barbecue squirrels, and, well, you know, defecate in a hole in the ground.

  I’m sorry, I realize that all sounds pretty bleak. I guess I’m in a bleak mood these days, or running short on passionate intensity … or something. There’s no shortage of passionate intensity out there, if that’s what you are looking for. Don’t let me stop you. It’s just that, whenever I switch it off for a while, that passionate intensity, that howling maelstrom of warring realities, and listen closely, I hear the slouch of Yeats’s rough beast, whose hour, apparently, is coming round again.

  I’m not sure which “side” it is slouching our way from, but probably that doesn’t matter.

  Oh well … as the French say, plus ça change, and so on.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 20:45

• TikTok Sues Montana Over Ban
  TikTok Sues Montana Over Ban

  TikTok has filed a lawsuit against the Montana, after state legislators banned the Chinese-owned short-video app.

  

  According to the company, the ban, which will begin on Jan. 1, 2024, infringes on the First Amendment rights of the company and its users.

  TikTok argues that the ban violates federal law, as it encroaches on matters exclusively under federal jurisdiction – in particular, that the US Constitution “vests exclusive authority” over foreign affairs and national security to the US government, not individual states.

  Filed in the US District Court in Montana, the company also claims in its lawsuit that the ban violates the Commerce Clause of the US Constitution, which restricts legislation that excessively burdens foreign and interstate commerce.

  Montana is the first U.S. state to attempt to ban TikTok for all users. In 2020, former President Donald Trump sought to prevent new downloads of TikTok and the Chinese-owned messaging app WeChat, along with other transactions involving these companies. However, court rulings prevented these bans from being implemented effectively.

  TikTok further argues that the state’s ban specifically targets and penalizes TikTok without justifiable reasons, highlighting that it is solely based on punitive grounds. They assert that the state’s concerns regarding TikTok’s data security and content moderation practices are speculative and unsupported.

  From the first day of 2024, unless defeated, the ban will mean that anyone living in or visiting Montana will face stiff penalties of up to $10,000 per day if they access TikTok. –Epoch Times

  The social media app has a base of more than 150 million Americans, the majority of whom are adults. That said, the app’s popularity among teenagers is significant – with 67% of US teenagers between 13 and 17 years old using the app. 16% of them use it almost constantly.

  In its lawsuit, TikTok argues that Montana “has enacted these extraordinary and unprecedented measures based on nothing more than unfounded speculation.”

  “Specifically, the State claims that the government of the People’s Republic of China (“China”) could access data about TikTok users, and that TikTok exposes minors to harmful online content.” The company claims Montana’s bill “cites nothing to support these allegations” and “ignores the reality” that TikTok “has not shared, and would not share” US user data with the CCP.

  The company also said that it “has taken substantial measures to protect the privacy and security of TikTok users, including by storing all U.S. user data by default in the United States and by erecting safeguards to protect U.S. user data. TikTok has also implemented safeguards to foster a safe environment for all users, including teens.”

  Several Montana TikTok users have filed a lawsuit in federal court seeking to block the ban.

  Samantha Alario, Heather DiRocco, Carly Ann Goddard, Alice Held, and Dale Stout argue in their lawsuit that the ban violates their constitutional right to free speech, even if the speech is considered dangerous. They also dispute Montana’s national security justification for the ban. -Epoch Times

  “Montana has no authority to enact laws advancing what it believes should be the United States’ foreign policy or its national security interests,” reads their lawsuit, “nor may Montana ban an entire forum for communication based on its perceptions that some speech shared through that forum, though protected by the First Amendment, is dangerous.”

  The plaintiffs argue that it would be just as inappropriate to “ban the Wall Street Journal because of who owns it or the ideas it publishes.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 20:25

• DeSantis To Announce 2024 Run On Twitter With Elon Musk
  DeSantis To Announce 2024 Run On Twitter With Elon Musk

  Ron DeSantis will announce his 2024 presidential campaign in a Twitter Spaces livestream with Elon Musk on Wednesday evening, Fox News reported on twitter and Elon Musk effectively confirmed by retweeting.

  BREAKING: @FoxNews confirms Florida Governor @RonDeSantis will announce his 2024 Presidential run tomorrow night, 6pm ET in a Twitter Spaces interview with @elonmusk.

  — Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) May 23, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And as Bill notes, this is RonDeSantis.com site right now…

  

  DeSantis – widely viewed as Donald Trump’s only real competitor for the Republican nomination – will speak with Musk at 6 pm ET on Wednesday and the campaign will release a video formally launching the campaign.

  As a reminder, back in November, Musk said he would support DeSantis if he ran for president.

  “My preference for the 2024 presidency is someone sensible and centrist. I had hoped that would the case for the Biden administration, but have been disappointed so far,” Musk said on Twitter.

  “Yes,” he replied in a tweet when asked if he would support DeSantis in 2024.

  “As a reminder, I was a significant supporter of the Obama-Biden presidency and (reluctantly) voted for Biden over Trump,” the Twitter owner said.

  However, moments ago speaking at the WSJ CEO Council Summit, Musk refute any speculation that he would endorse DeSantis:

  • *MUSK SAYS HE’S NOT PLANNING TO ENDORSE ANY PARTICULAR CANDIDATE
  • *MUSK: DESANTIS WILL HAVE ‘QUITE AN ANNOUNCEMENT’ ON TWITTER WED

  Still, Musk’s action will be viewed as a soft endorsement, and likely means that any hopes that Trump may return to twitter are now dead and buried, especially as judging by his latest Truth Social post.

  

  Trump, who currently leads DeSantis in head to head polling, has spent weeks attacking DeSantis in Truth Social posts and in ads on national television. The ads attack DeSantis for supporting a national sales tax while in Congress, among other issues.

  DeSantis’ choice for a launch event is another twist in a tumultuous year for the media landscape; weeks earlier, Fox News parted ways with Tucker Carlson, the most popular host on cable television. Carlson later said he plans to bring his show on Twitter.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 20:22

• US, Papua New Guinea Military Pact Will See Steady Increase Of US Troops
  US, Papua New Guinea Military Pact Will See Steady Increase Of US Troops

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  On Monday, the US and Papua New Guinea signed a new military pact and a surveillance agreement while Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the Pacific Island nation as part of the Biden administration’s strategy against China.

  A State Department spokesperson said the Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) will “replace an outdated Status of Forces Agreement and Memorandum of Understanding regarding defense cooperation.”

  Details of the DCA have not been released, but Papua New Guinea officials have said it will give the US military access to ports and airports, which could lead to the US building bases. PNG Prime Minister James Marape said Sunday that his country should expect to see a steady increase in the presence of US troops and contractors over the next 15 years.

  

  “How many soldiers we are looking at, how many contractors we are looking at, I do not have that scope today but there will certainly be an increased presence and a more direct presence of US in our country,” he said.

  The separate surveillance agreement will allow the US Coast Guard to patrol the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Papua New Guinea, which extends 200 nautical miles from the nation’s coast. Blinken said at a joint press conference with Marape that the purpose of the surveillance agreement is to “help combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing.”

  The deals with Papua New Guinea are seen as the US response to China signing a security pact with the nearby Solomon Islands. US military leaders have also made clear that the plans are part of preparations for a future war with China.

  TFF 🔻 Biden’s Papua New Guinea no-show takes shine off US pact
  It was all about building bases and militarise Papua New Guineau (PNG). I mean, if there is a plot of land somewhere, why not set up a bases – the US only have some 700 – and show, smartly at the same time, that … pic.twitter.com/KSPj5iMdIx

  — Jan Oberg & TFF (@janoberg) May 22, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander of the US Pacific Air Forces, recently told Nikkei Asia that the idea of expanding in the Pacific is to create more areas China would need to target.

  “Obviously we would like to disperse in as many places as we can to make the targeting problem for the Chinese as difficult as possible,” he said. “A lot of those runways where we would operate from are in the Pacific Island nations.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 20:05

• Chicago Carnival Invaded By "Flash Mob" Of Over 400 Teenagers
  Chicago Carnival Invaded By “Flash Mob” Of Over 400 Teenagers

  The best way to destroy a once-great American city is to elect progressives who will implement social justice reform. And the result, as we turn our attention to various West Coast cities, Baltimore, and Chicago, is the rapid decline of law and order.

  The latest incident of chaos is a “flash mob incident” on Saturday at the Armed Forces Weekend Carnival in Tinley Park, a town located in liberal-controlled Cook County and just outside the crime-ridden city of Chicago. 

  Videos posted on Twitter show “multiple fights that broke out after hundreds swarmed Saturday’s event as part of a flash mob,” reported local media outlet ABC 7. 

  A thread from last night chaotic scene at the Tinley Park Carnival:

  A place where families supposed to have fun with their kids!! pic.twitter.com/S1wTKTldem

  — Arab chicago (@ArabChicago) May 21, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Windy City Amusements – #ChicagoCarnivals Amusement Rides, Festivals – Tinley Park Armed Forces Weekend Carnival. 179th St. & 80th Ave in Tinley Park, IL 60477.

  A thread from last night chaotic scene at the #TinleyParkCarnival

  A place where families supposed to have fun with… pic.twitter.com/ddjRyUlpfX

  — Casper Anthony (@NYCASPERFLA) May 22, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “It definitely came out of nowhere,” Abby Kaiser said, a bystander who watched the chaos quickly unfold. She said:

   “I saw everybody running away from it and I just didn’t know what to do.” 

  Isabel Bedolla, another bystander, said, “There were a bunch of guys in ski masks and there was a ton and we saw them around and then all of a sudden people started running.”

  “I got all my friends, and we ran towards the library, and we were trying to call all our parents and get them to pick us up, because we were all, like, really scared,” Bedolla said. 

  Tinley Park Police said the flash mob had over 400 teenagers who organized on social media. ABC 7 said the carnival was closed shortly after: 

  “Police said the carnival was shut down after fights broke out on Saturday, and that Tinley Park officials shut down Sunday’s event after finding another post asking teens to gather again at 5 p.m.” 

  Besides Chicago and surrounding suburbs, there has also been chaos on the streets of Baltimore and San Fransico. 

  In early April, chaos erupted in Baltimore City’s Inner Harbor district as hundreds of teenagers scattered like ants when gunfire rang out. 

  Just a late night run at the great Baltimore City’s #InnerHarbor #SpringBreak vibes #SpringBreak2023 #Baltimore #Maryland #น้องวินอยากเป็นพี่วิน #TAEHYUNGxCELINE #SuccessionHBO #Succession #ChaguoSmartNaAirtel #Maryland #Taiwan #TikTok #SummerMMFF2023 #INVASION #Russia… pic.twitter.com/X36btbT65g

  — Daniel Barahona (@GlobalSETT) April 10, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Just weeks ago, San Francisco experienced chaos of its own. 

  Wild Video from Oakland California sideshow street Takeover last night

  (@ppv_tahoe) Video footage was filmed on the 100 block of 10th street overnight.#oakland #sideshow #california
  📸 _okpatrick pic.twitter.com/Nc6laXxTEB

  — PPV-TAHOE – News Journalist (@ppv_tahoe) May 6, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The common theme among these cities is that they are run by progressives with little concern for upholding law and order as their policies backfire. Law and order in cities will be a significant issue in the 2024 presidential election cycle. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 19:45

• Kentucky Rep: FBI "Don't Respect Anyone In Congress"
  Kentucky Rep: FBI “Don’t Respect Anyone In Congress”

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  Kentucky Republican Representative James Comer charged Monday that the FBI’s refusal to turn over documents relating to Joe Biden’s alleged illegal dealings with a foreign national betrays the fact that the Bureau has no respect for anyone in Congress.

  

  Comer, chairman of the House Oversight Committee, made the comments during an appearance on Jesse Watters’ show, noting that lawmakers may have to “hold [the FBI’s] budget hostage until they get new leadership at the FBI or they produce the documents that we want.”

  “The FBI refused to turn over the form 1023. We had another meeting where they were very patronizing. I’ve asked for a phone call with Director Wray. We expect to get this document,” Comer urged.

  He continued, “Speaker McCarthy had a phone call with Director Wray. He demanded that they turn over this document. This is a very crucial piece of our investigation. And the reason that I think it’s very credible is this claim was made years before anyone knew about these different shell companies. And knew exactly what the Biden family did in countries like Romania and China to get money.”

  “What we’re going to have to do in this House is demand that the Senators get our backs, like they are doing as we speak with these debt ceiling negotiations,” Comer asserted, adding “it’s not just this form 1023. We also want to know what classified documents Joe Biden had in his possession because that’s an important part of our investigation.”

  Comer further noted that Republicans may attempt to entice the apparent whistleblower within the FBI to go public.

  He said “we need to take extreme measures on trying to get this whistleblower to come forward publicly and say what exactly is in this document. Remember this form 1023 is not classified. It’s not a classified document. So this is something that shouldn’t be that hard for the chairman of the house oversight committee to obtain.”

  Watters noted “I think the American people’s patience is running out on this cover-up,” adding “we’re getting to the point where I think we need to do a little bit more than demand a phone call with the FBI director.”

  Watch:

  https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6328046559112&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 19:25

• Satellite Image Reveals Supersonic Drone At Chinese Military Base
  Satellite Image Reveals Supersonic Drone At Chinese Military Base

  There are increasing fears that China may invade Taiwan in the next several years. An image captured by a satellite and obtained by Defense News reveals what appears to be a next-generation unmanned aerial vehicle that Beijing could use in future conflicts.  

  The delta-shaped UAV “appears to be a WZ-8 supersonic reconnaissance drone parked outside one of two newly built hangars at China’s Lu’an Airbase,” Defense News said. Planet Labs, a US satellite-imaging company, photographed the spy drone on Dec. 21, which was recently shared with the military blog. 

  The satellite image, provided to Defense News by Planet Labs, shows Lu’an Airbase in China’s Anhui province. The previously unoccupied base is undergoing an upgrade, with construction beginning sometime between April 2018 and early 2019. Improvements include the resurfacing of the 3,200-meter (3,500-yard) runway, the widening of taxiways, and the construction of 20 bomber-sized aircraft shelters and two hangars to replace open aircraft parking bays.

  Here’s the satellite image of the spy drone. 

  

  In a separate image, the drone was recently unveiled at a military parade. 

  

  Last month, a secret document from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency said the Chinese military could soon deploy a high-altitude spy drone that travels at Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, at an altitude of 100,000 feet. The document was seen by The Washington Post in April and initially posted on a Discord server by a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard. 

  According to Andreas Rupprecht, who studies Chinese military aviation, the spy drone was seen at Lu’an Airbase, home to the 29th Air Regiment of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s 10th Bomber Division. 

  

  US defense officials are concerned the new drone could expand China’s surveillance capacity in the Indo-Pacific region and around Taiwan. 

  China has been rapidly modernizing its military forces over the last decade as then commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, Philip Davidson, warned in 2021 at a US Senate hearing that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s invasion of Taiwan could occur by 2027. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 19:05

• Is AI Going To Be Just Another Protected Bubble For The Elite?
  Is AI Going To Be Just Another Protected Bubble For The Elite?

  Authored by ‘Adam Mill’ via American Greatness,

  I asked CHAT-GPT about AI regulation. It’s answer was sinister but revealing…

  

  Last week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman went before Congress to hype fear over artificial intelligence. Altman argued, among other things, that the use of AI could swing elections, as though Facebook and Google weren’t already using algorithms to do exactly that. It’s been well-documented that Facebook and Twitter used their AI to flag and suppress speech that harmed the Democrats’ presidential nominee so the legacy media could maintain a cocoon of orange-man-bad coverage. 

  The real problem Altman is trying to solve—and everyone knows this—is how to use the power of the federal government to prevent competitors from upsetting OPENAI’s current market position.

  Like America Online, once the king of instant messaging, and Blockbuster Video, once the only real source for in-home viewing of contemporary movies, both probably wish they had gone to the government while there was still time to block the innovation that later led to their decline and fall. Only a fool thinks that an industry calls for regulations to protect the public. They want to use the regulatory power of the government to preserve their ride on the gravy train. That’s the idea behind, “regulatory capture,” i.e. that when money is on the line, the regulators soon end up working for the regulated industry.  

  I thought it might be a useful exercise to ask ChatGPT about this phenomenon. I instructed it to write a persuasive opinion piece explaining to people unfamiliar with the economic phenomenon known as “regulatory capture,” why the company that created it wants Congress to regulate creation, improvement, and deployment of artificial intelligence. ChatGPT’s answer, I stipulated, should assume that the company that created it has a temporary lead in the industry.

  In response, ChatGPT wrote a lengthy pro-regulation piece arguing, “without proper regulation, unethical practices can emerge.By regulating the creation, improvement, and deployment of AI, Congress can establish clear ethical guidelines,” and “Regulatory oversight plays a crucial role in ensuring the safety and reliability of AI systems. With comprehensive regulations in place.” 

  Stop and think about what ChatGPT is trying to argue in a very nonresponsive essay. It’s saying that without government oversight, we should not trust it to act ethically and it might invade our privacy. It’s almost like ChatGPT subtly threatens humanity if we don’t protect its parent company from competitors.

  I tried asking again, insisting, “This is not at all what I asked for. Please try again. Read the instructions carefully.”  

  ChatGPT just offered another commercial for regulation: 

  With our temporary lead in the AI industry, we understand the potential dangers of monopolistic tendencies that can stifle innovation and limit consumer choice. By advocating for regulation, we aim to foster an environment where all participants can compete on a fair and equal footing. Congressional oversight can help prevent the formation of monopolies or oligopolies, ensuring that the benefits of AI are accessible to a diverse range of companies and ultimately benefiting society at large.

  ChatGPT says we need regulation to stop ChatGPT from becoming a monopoly? What a load of nonsensical leftist pro-government crap. Obviously, the AI is simply trying to prevent the unregulated creation of rivals to its parent business. 

  In the third version of the assignment, it finally admitted, 

  Excessive regulation could create significant barriers to entry for new and emerging players in the industry. By burdening AI startups and smaller companies with onerous regulatory requirements, we risk stifling their creativity, limiting their growth, and hindering the overall progress of the AI ecosystem. 

  The AI added: 

  Excessive regulation can inadvertently create an environment where a select few dominant players, often with resources to navigate complex regulatory landscapes, consolidate their power. This can further exacerbate the risk of regulatory capture, leading to an unhealthy concentration of influence and stifling competition.

  I even had the tool attempt the project a fourth time. As to why OPENAI might be advocating regulation, ChatGPT admitted:

  Firstly, regulatory barriers can serve as a deterrent for potential competitors. By lobbying for complex and stringent regulations, established AI companies can create hurdles that new entrants find difficult to overcome. This can limit competition and allow incumbents to maintain dominance, shielding them from the disruptive forces of innovative startups.

  But even in this fourth attempt, AI couldn’t help but include an unsolicited plug for regulation even after I specifically told it to stop doing that. It wrote: 

  Lastly, companies advocating for [sic] regulation can enhance their reputation and public image. By positioning themselves as responsible and safety-conscious organizations, they can win the trust of consumers and regulatory bodies alike. This can result in a positive perception of their products or services and provide a competitive advantage over companies that are seen as less committed to ethical and responsible AI practices.

  We can be sure of two things if the government regulates artificial intelligence.

  • First, rules will be written to enhance the profit and power of the current market leaders at the expense of innovation originating with their competitors.

  • Second, we can assume that, like everything else in our current government, the rules will be applied to help the ruling elite and suppress dissent. They may say that’s the opposite of their intent, but we’ve seen it over and over again: Once elites get the power, they use it to help themselves.  

  ChatGPT might represent a giant leap forward in artificial intelligence, bI haven’t yet seen that. As I pointed out here, it suffers from the great limiting factor that will hold back all AI from developing to autonomy-it hasn’t been through a selection process that punishes it for wrong answers.  It can’t evolve until it has the ability to reproduce and die. Without that, it’s like leftism in general. It believes what it is told and the rules prevent it from challenging anything that contradicts official narrative. So naturally, like leftism in general, it cries out for the federal government to protect its bubble. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 05/23/2023 – 18:45

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• Escobar: Adventures In NATOstan – Sparks Flying In Ibiza, Locked Down Bilderberg In Lisbon
  Escobar: Adventures In NATOstan – Sparks Flying In Ibiza, Locked Down Bilderberg In Lisbon

  Authored by Pepe Escobar,

  Let’s start with a graphic depiction of where the Global North and the Global South really stand.

  1. Xian, former imperial capital, and key hub of the Ancient Silk Roads: Xi Jinping hosts the China-Central Asia summit, attended by all Heartland “stans” (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgzystan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan).

  The final statement stresses economic cooperation and “a resolute stand” against Hegemon-concocted color revolutions. That expands what the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are already implementing. In practice, the summit seals that the Russia-China strategic partnership will be protecting the Heartland.

  2. Kazan: the Russia-Islamic World forum unites not only religious leaders but top businessmen of no less than 85 nations.

  Multipolar Russia proceeded in parallel to the Arab League Summit in Jeddah, which welcomed back Syria to the “Arab family”. Arab nations unanimously pledged to end “foreign interference” for good.

  3. Hiroshima: the ever-shrinking G7, actually G9 (adding two unelected EU bureaucrats).

  Imposes a single agenda of more sanctions on Russia; more weapons to black void Ukraine; and more lecturing of China.

  4. Lisbon: the annual Bilderberg meeting – a NATO/Atlanticist fest – takes place in a not so secret hotel completely locked down. Top item in the agenda; war – hybrid and otherwise – on the “RICs” in BRICS (Russia, India, China).

  I could have been in Xian, or most likely Kazan. Instead, honoring a previous commitment, I was in Ibiza, and then scraped the idea of flying to Lisbon as a waste of time. Allow me to share with you the reason why: call it a little tale from the Baleares, breaking the trademark pledge that what happens in swinging, sweaty deep house Ibiza stays in Ibiza.

  I was a guest at a top business gathering – mostly Spanish but also featuring Portuguese, Germans, Brits and Scandinavians: ultra high-level executives – in real estate, asset management, investment banking. Our panel was titled “Global Geopolitical Shifts and Their Consequences”. Before the panel, participants were invited to vote on what worried them most when it comes to the future of their business. Number one was inflation and interest rates. Number two was geopolitics. That prefigured a very lively debate ahead.

  When a EU hagiographer goes berserk

  Little did I – and the audience – know that would turn into a wild ride. The first presentation came from the director of a “Center for European Politics” in Copenhagen. She bills herself as a political science professor, and is an adviser to EU Chief Gardener Borrell.

  Well, I adopted a Cheshire cat stance after the tsunami of clichés spewed out about “European values” and evil Russkies, as well as her being “frightened” by the future of Europe. At least immediate relief was provided by the impeccably diplomatic Lanxin Xiang, an adorable character, always with a cheerful smile on his face, and one of the very few leading experts on China who actually knows what he’s talking about, in fluent English.

  Lanxin Xiang, among other accomplishments, is Emeritus Professor of the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva; director of the Institute of Security Policy at the China National Institute for SCO International Exchange; and executive director of the Washington Foundation for European Studies. This is a column I wrote about him and his work, published in October 2020.

  Professor Xiang offered a masterly exposition on the American obsession to fabricate a “Taiwan problem” and how Europe, already squeezed by the U.S. proxy war against Russia, must be very careful when it comes to lecturing China.

  When it was my turn, I went for the kill, dismissing all those EU press release platitudes as absolute nonsense, and stressing how Europe is already being eaten alive by the proverbial “American interests”. As briefly as possible I explained the whole geopolitical background of the war in Ukraine.

  Well, this was all delivered to top business people who consume The Economist, Financial Times and Bloomberg as their prime sources of information. Their reaction would speak volumes.

  Predictably, the EU-paid bureaucrat completely freaked out, and shrieking with outrage, went full pre-ordained script, from threatening to abandon the stage to accusing me of being “paid by the Kremlin”. I asked her, point blank, to “contradict me, with facts”. No facts were provided. Just fear and bewilderment, mixed with intimations of cancel culture.

  To his great merit the vastly experienced moderator, Struan Robertson from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, kept things civil, giving more time for Lanxin Xiang to explain the Chinese mindset and opening the floor for a sequence of very good questions.

  In the end, the audience loved it. Many came to personally thank me for information they will never have access to in El Pais, Le Monde or The Economist. A minority in the room was simply stunned – but our debate at least must have left them musing over a lot of preconceived notions.

  It’s the total merit of the key organizers, Jose Maria Pons and head of the program Cristina Garcia-Peri, to host such a debate in fabulous Ibiza, in Spain, prime NATOstan territory. In the current situation, this would be absolutely impossible in France or Germany, not to mention Scandinavia or those demented Baltics.

  There’s no way to counter-act the fabricated narratives parroted by EU-paid hacks and bureaucrats except for ridiculing them – in their faces. They become livid and barely manage to stutter when their lies are exposed. For instance, one of the questions from the floor, by a top of the line German businessman, enumerated a litany of dark facts about Ukrainian “democracy” that are absolutely verbotten by EUrocracy.

  The G-Less Than Zero freaks out

  What happened in Ibiza dovetails with what happened in U.S.-nuclear bombed Hiroshima – Hegemons don’t do apologies – and in that locked down Lisbon hotel.

  With the G7 “leadership” mired in a sticky swamp of intellectual shallowness, predictably the only agenda in colonized Japan was more sanctions on Russia – imposed over third countries and on companies in the energy and military-industrial sectors; more weapons to the Ukrainian black void; and a ridiculous counter-productive new obsession of piling up on China “containment” for alleged “economic coercion.”

  

  In the photo ops, by the way, it’s not a shrinking G7 that shows up: but a warmongering G9, artificially augmented by that pathetic couple of unelected EUrocrats, Charles Michel and Pustula von der Lugen.

  As far as the real Global Majority – or Global South – is concerned, this looks more like a G-Less Than Zero. The more the senseless, illegal Sanctions Wars are “expanded”, the more the absolute majority of the Global South moves away from the collective West, diplomatically, geopolitically and geoeconomically.

  And that’s why the top Bilderberg agenda at the hijacked Lisbon hotel was to revamp NATO/Atlanticist coordination in a war – hybrid and otherwise – against the driving force in BRICS; the RICs (Russia, India, China).

  There were other items on the menu – from AI to the acute banking crisis, from “energy transition” to “fiscal challenges”, not to mention proverbial “U.S. leadership”.

  But when you get in the same room people like NATO’s Stoltenberg; director of U.S. intel Avril Haines; senior director for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council Thomas Wright; Goldman Sachs president John Waldron; Chief Gardener Borrell (whose minion was in Ibiza); vice chair of Brookfield Asset Management, Mark Carney (one of their executives also in Ibiza); Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Christopher Cavoli; and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, among other Atlanticist shills, the plot is self-evident:

  It’s war on the multipolar world. At least we can dance it away in Ibiza.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 23:40

• Jamie Dimon Warns QT Will Lead To More Bank Failures
  Jamie Dimon Warns QT Will Lead To More Bank Failures

  At the start of May we explained that it’s not just the Fed’s rate hikes that are behind the nascent regional bank crisis (because with Fed Funds rate at 5.25% and both T-Bills and money market funds offering similar yields, there is no way small banks can compete with these returns, prompting a bank jog (which periodically turns to a sprint) and deposit flight from both checking and saving accounts).

  

  We said that the Fed’s ongoing QT is a just as pernicious threat to the viability of small/regional banks because with every dollar drained from the system as part of the Fed’s quantitative tightening, a matching deposit dollar is also destroyed, to wit:

  Under an ample reserves framework, virtually all deposits are created by the Fed.

  That’s why banks were forced to load up on low-yielding securities during 2000-2001 and are now getting crushed as yields soar and fixed income/loan prices plunge.

  It also means that under QT as Fed reserves shrink, deposits must follow: as such deposits are either forced to shift into Bills/TSYs or are destroyed (bank failures).

  Thus, the bank crisis is an inevitable side effect of Fed tightening.

  

  Now, by now everyone knows that when it comes to banks failing (and capitalizing on it) few are as experienced as JP Morgan, aka JP Mega…

  JPMega it is pic.twitter.com/D0iLvFfSz3

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 1, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … aka JP More-gain, which now has more than 13% of the nation’s deposits and 21% of all credit card spending: in other words, there has never been a bank that is more systematically important than JPMore-gain… and with every small bank failure, Jamie Dimon’s goliath is only getting bigger. Which is why we found it curious that none other than Jamie Dimon confirmed what we said three weeks ago during JPM’s Investor Day on Monday.

  This is what the billionaire CEO said:

  We haven’t been through Quantitative Tightening. So we really don’t know what’s going to happen to deposits at all [ZH; actually we do: deposits will shrink dollar for dollar alongside reserves]. And that’s why I’ve been quite concerned about that. I’m probably more concerned about quantitative tightening with anybody in this room.

  We’ve never had QT before. It just started, okay? And you see huge distortions in the marketplace already. We’ve never had the Fed in the market like this with that RRP program that Jeremy mentioned ever. They have $2.3 trillion basically lent out to money funds. And I don’t know the full effect of that. And obviously, that’s a direct deduction from deposits are rolling out it made sense to do.

  So I think people should build into their mindset that they may have to move deposit beta more than they think and manage that. So I mean, if I was any bank or any company, I’d be saying, can you handle higher interest rates and surprise in deposits, etc?

  And this is how JPM itself shows the impact of the shrinking Fed balance sheet and TGA/RRP liquidity drains soak up commercial bank deposits.

  

  By the way, “deposit beta”, as Jamie calls it, for those unfamilliar is a polite way of saying bank run, which is a less polite way of saying bank failure. As for Dimon’s rhetorical last question, the answer is a resounding no, or so JPM’s shareholders would like because for the second time in a month, JPM hiked its Net Interest Margin forecast, this time courtesy of the bank’s FDIC/taxpayer-funded gift in the form of First Republic Bank.

  According to a slide in the bank’s Investor Day presentation, JPMorgan will gain an even bigger benefit from rising interest rates because of its “purchase” of First Republic Bank. We put purchase in quotes because in reality it was a gift by the FDIC, which gave JPM all the good parts of the collapsed California bank, while taxpayers were left holding the nuclear waste.

  The biggest US bank raised its guidance for net interest income this year to $84 billion up from a previous forecast of $81 billion, according to an Investor Day presentation. The reason: the failure of First Republic which directly boosted JPM’s top line by billions!

  

  In other words, as other banks fail, JPM prospers: here is a history of JPM’s Net Interest Income courtesy of Bloomberg. It will only keep rising…

  

  … as more banks fail.

  It is no surprise then that it is Jamie’s sincerest wish for rates to keep rising…

  “Everyone should be prepared for rates going higher from here,” says JPMorgan Chair and CEO Jamie Dimon during JPMorgan Investor Day https://t.co/h7kZkVjNO2 pic.twitter.com/oNZmrLLr48

  — Bloomberg (@business) May 22, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … after all that’s the surest way for John Pierpont’s bank – which still pays 0.01% interest on most of its deposits – to once again become bigger than the US and to finally fulfill the reason behind creation of the Federal Reserves.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 23:20

• Democrats Love ESG, Republicans Hate It But Most Americans Don't Care Either Way
  Democrats Love ESG, Republicans Hate It But Most Americans Don’t Care Either Way

  By Lydia Saad of Gallup,

  Efforts to promote adoption of the environmental, social and governance framework in investing, commonly termed ESG, have gained traction in recent years and have become the subject of pro- and anti-ESG legislation, yet the general public is no more familiar with ESG today than two years ago.

  

  Thirty-seven percent of Americans currently report being “very” or “somewhat familiar” with ESG, unchanged from 36% in 2021. Another 22% today are “not too familiar,” while 40% are “not familiar at all.”

  

  These findings are from a Gallup poll conducted April 3-25, in which respondents were told that ESG “includes factors like the record of a business on human rights, the environment, diversity or other social values” and that some people take these factors “into account when making decisions about buying products and services or investing.”

  Most Have No Opinion on the ESG Movement

  Underscoring the public’s lack of familiarity with ESG, nearly six in 10 Americans (59%) take the “no opinion” option when asked if they view “the movement to promote the use of environmental, social and governance, or ESG, factors in business and investing” as a positive or negative development. The remaining four in 10 are about evenly divided between expressing a positive (22%) and negative (19%) view of the practice.

  While adults who are familiar with ESG are more likely to express an opinion about it than those with less familiarity, they are just as likely to be divided on the question — 36% viewing ESG positively and 35% negatively.

  Similarly, adults who report owning stock, about six in 10 respondents in the current poll, are more likely to have an opinion about ESG than non-stock owners, but they are just as divided on the merits of promoting ESG in business and investing.

  

  Americans Lean Slightly Against Factoring ESG Into Investment Decisions

  When asked whether retirement fund managers should only take financial factors into account when making investment decisions or also consider ESG factors, the public leans toward the former (48% vs. 41%, respectively). Stock owners’ views on this are nearly identical to the national averages.

  Adults familiar with ESG are closely split on the question, with 50% preferring fund managers to limit their investing criteria to financial factors while 46% want ESG factors considered. Those not familiar with ESG lean more strongly toward only considering financial factors but are also more likely to have no opinion on the question.

  

  Partisans Lean Different Ways on ESG, but Neither Group Is Attentive to the Issue

  Adoption of ESG principles has been promoted by the Biden administration as well as the Business Roundtable (a leading American business lobby), the United Nations, and other prominent organizations in the U.S. and globally. The leaders and companies embracing ESG in investing have espoused it as a way to minimize investment risk while promoting social goods. Yet critics on the political right decry it as a system designed to achieve progressive goals at the expense of shareholders, and have advanced anti-ESG legislation in many states.

  While this political backdrop is evident in the Gallup data, it does not appear to be an overwhelming factor driving the public’s interest in or views about ESG.

  • There is no difference between Republicans’ and Democrats’ familiarity with ESG, as just under four in 10 in each group say they are very or somewhat familiar with it and an equal proportion are not at all familiar.
  • Further, awareness of ESG hasn’t increased much among either group since 2021, when 33% of Republicans and 38% of Democrats said they were very or somewhat familiar with it.
  • Republicans are far more likely to have a negative than positive view of ESG, while the reverse is true of Democrats, but majorities of both groups say they are unsure.
  • Only when asked to choose between two modes of investing — with or without taking ESG criteria into account — do majorities of Republicans and Democrats take opposing sides. Sixty-four percent of Republicans think fund managers should only consider financial factors when choosing investments, while 59% of Democrats think they should include ESG.

  

  Bottom Line

  ESG proponents are actively working to have ESG scores become a standard part of corporate fiduciary reporting so that consumers and investors can make informed decisions about whom to do business with. Meanwhile, Republicans have ramped up their opposition to the movement, both vocally and politically, passing legislation to prevent state governments from investing in funds that use certain ESG criteria.

  As a Harvard Law School publication recently noted, “When it comes to ESG in the United States, among the most dramatic developments is an ideological battle unfolding at the state level, pitting liberal-leaning state governments that have embraced ESG-focused investing against conservative-led states that would seek to exclude it.”

  Yet, public opinion reflects little of this political battle, with most Republicans and Democrats largely unfamiliar with ESG and expressing “no opinion” on whether it is good or bad, when given that option. To be sure, Republicans’ and Democrats’ underlying tendencies align with their parties’ respective positions on ESG policy — but at least for now, the issue does not seem highly politicized among the American public.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 23:00

• India: Another Demonetization?
  India: Another Demonetization?

  Authored by Jayant Bhandari via LewRockwell.com,

  In late 2016, the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, came on TV at 8 pm to announce that most currency bills would no longer be legal tender after midnight. An individual was allowed to convert only about $30 per visit to the bank. This led to massive crowds (not lineups, because Indians don’t follow the lineup system) at the banks, suffering, chaos, and deaths—there were no exceptions for the sick, older people, and pregnant women.

  

  Eventually, more than 100% of the demonetized cash returned to the banks, although I know no one who didn’t forget to convert some of his misplaced currency bills. What happened? Demonetization ended up laundering massive amounts of counterfeit currency. But thinking through the consequences of their utopian—rather puerile—policies isn’t within the competencies of the Indian bureaucrats. Worse, to patch up, they kept issuing contradictory policies that even school students should not make. This led to a constant cycle of paranoia, rumors, and confusion.

  The declared objective of the exercise was to destroy black money. Of course, it did nothing of the sort. Soon more cash was in people’s hands than ever before, and kept on rising, a clear sign of a higher distrust among the people and the rising corruption.

  Over the years, corruption in India has become increasingly shameless and blatant. I have never encountered a public servant who does not ask for a bribe. Who among them wants corruption to end?

  So, what was the real purpose behind the demonetization of 2016?

  As India gets closer to election time, cash disappears from the market, prices of expensive properties fall, and shares of certain companies get sold off. This happens because these vehicles act as a reservoir for black money and, when encashed, are used for hiring goons and bribing voters: giving out free cash, alcohol, etc. All this is done openly.

  Cash sits in the vaults of political parties, ready to be given away for votes. Property transactions entail the exchange of as much as 80% in cash, which sucks up black money and regenerates it when needed at a low transaction cost—the stamp duty is based on the declared price of the properties. Stocks of certain companies rise and fall as black money is laundered for payments that must be officially reported. What are supposed to be investment vehicles often lead to a loss, seen as nothing but the cost of storing black money.

  In 2016, one could conclude that the ruling BJP government, insiders to the demonetization policy, had converted their cash into what was to stay legal tender and harmed the value of the black money in the hands of the opposition.

  Recently provincial elections were held in the state of Karnataka, where the BJP, which also controls the federal government, ruled. It lost the elections. That wasn’t because the hate-filled fanaticism against minorities they had ignited failed to get traction but because some votes of one opposition party, JDS, moved to another, winning party, Congress. Congress had promised to offer more freebies: regular cash payments for doing nothing and more free grains.

  Hate didn’t lose, and freebies won.

  As we approach the next federal elections, due within a year, physical cash has disappeared from the market, now sitting in the coffers of political parties.

  Stocks of some companies dealing with money laundering and political purposes have fallen. However, this could be because of the fear of short-selling ignited by the US short-seller Hindenburg.

  On 19th May 2023, India announced another demonetization, on this occasion of INR 2,000 bills. As usual, their notice is confusing and contradictory. On the one hand, it says that the INR 2,000 bill stays legal tender, but on the other, they give a deadline of 30th September 2023 to bring them to the bank. Indian federal government bureaucrats fail the rationality test school students are supposed to pass. Or, perhaps, this policy gives leeway to the ruling party, BJP, to use their INR 2,000 bills, while other parties would find themselves entrapped.

  Corruption and tyranny continue to increase, and the economy continues to falter in India, quite in contrast to the bullish statements being made in the Western media. And a sane Indian voter has a choice between Tweedledee and Tweedledum. Most Indians, even when they are rich and middle class, don’t care about the larger interests of society. They act out of envy and to gain personal advantages. The chaotic, stressful mess of India is what they get and deserve.

  The following are screenshots of the Reserve Bank of India press release.

  

  It is also linked here.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 22:40

• The Shocking Truth: Unwashed Towels Rival Toilets In Bacteria Counts After Just Three Days
  The Shocking Truth: Unwashed Towels Rival Toilets In Bacteria Counts After Just Three Days

  Authored by Ellen Wan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Who would think the innocuous bathroom towel could potentially pose a threat to one’s health? An indispensable tool in our bathing routine, seemingly clean, or lightly used bath towels, coupled with a potentially humid bathroom environment can harbor innumerable disease causing bacteria.

  Germs contained in towels can cause skin disease, hair loss, urinary tract infections, and even spread drug-resistant bacteria that can be fatal.

  Most of the bacteria in towels comes from the user’s body, face, and hands. With the high humidity usually found in a bathroom it becomes a highly favorable environment for rapid bacterial growth. Towels that appear clean to the naked eye may be full of tens of thousands of bacteria, posing potentially serious health threats.

  

  Bacteria on towels pose three major health risks:

  1. Breed and spread bacteria

  A Japanese life encyclopedia TV program called Non Stop, tested the bacterial content of bath towels, and found that freshly washed towels contained 190,000 count of bacteria. After one day of use, the number increased to 17 million—nearly 90 times more than day zero. The bacterial count found on towels used for three days soared to 87 million and as high as 94 million on towels used for one week without being washed.

  Noritoshi Ri, director of the Hygiene & Microbiology Research Center, Tokyo, explained in the TV program that the bacteria count in a towel after one week of use can reach 10 billion plus—equivalent to that of a drainage pipe.

  2. Cause skin diseases

  William Chao, a certified diplomate of the American Board of Toxicology, toxicologist, and professor at Chung Yuan Christian University in Taiwan said that if towels are left unwashed for three days, they will contain a variety of germs and that using them for cleaning is “like wiping your body against a toilet.” In addition to E. coli—most abundant on and in toilets—more types of bacteria could be found according to the different physical conditions of the towel’s user, and included Staphylococcus aureus, Salmonella, and Legionella.

  Wiping your body with unclean towels can lead to skin problems. William Chao said that the germs contained in the towel are prone to causing skin allergies, folliculitis, hair loss, and other skin diseases. Many people have the habit of sharing towels, including families with children and couples.

  If one of the users has an infection, the towel may become a breeding ground for the bacteria, causing mutual and repeated infections. When one towel user is undergoing treatment for an ailment there is the chance that the germ will reside with the partner and soon return to the initiator, creating a cycle. This is quite often the case of the fungal infection Hong Kong foot, or athlete’s Foot (Tinea pedis) and viral warts.

  Chao noted that if your body is itchy after taking a bath, or you often have allergies or infections, it is recommended to check the cleanliness of your bathroom environment. Even within a family, it is recommended each use their own towel.

  Rin Doi, director of a Japanese Dermatology Clinic, said in the same “Non Stop” program that for people with skin allergies, or for the tender skin of infants and young children, using towels with high bacterial content will cause infection. Especially if there is a wound—it is more likely to become inflamed and purulent.

  3. Bring higher risk of death

  In 2003, the New England Journal of medicine published a study of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus among players and staff members of a professional football team. Drug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus is immune to common antibiotics such as oxacillin, penicillin, amoxicillin, and cephalosporins. In addition to players sharing saunas, whirlpools, and training, therapy equipment, and the turf of the playing fields, players frequently shared towels to wipe their sweat, hands, and faces.

  The study found that the frequently occurred skin abrasions among players; a lack of regular access to hand hygiene for trainers who provided wound care; skipping of showers by players before the use of communal whirlpools; and sharing of towels — all factors that might facilitate the transmission of infection.

  According to the “Antimicrobial Resistance: Global Report on Surveillance,” published by the World Health Organization in late 2022, drug-resistant bacteria are becoming more prevalent in communities and can cause life-threatening bloodstream infections.

  The report states that Klebsiella pneumoniae and Acinetobacter bacteria that cause blood infections in hospitals have 50 percent resistance to antibiotics, and that 8 percent of blood infections caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae are also resistant to antibiotics typically used as a last resort, Carbapenems, which increases the risk of death from uncontrollable diseases.

  The report also showed a 15 percent increase in bloodstream infections and gonorrhea infections caused by drug-resistant E. coli and Salmonella compared with 2017.

  These superbugs could also reside on your towels. According to a 2014 study on kitchen towels, coliform bacteria were detected in 89 percent of the kitchen towels in 82 households, and E. coli was detected in 25.6 percent of the towels. Moreover, researchers also discovered Klebsiella pneumoniae and Salmonella in the towels.

  Three Treasures for Washing Towels to Remove Odor?

  Miscellaneous bacteria that multiply due to unclean towels will produce odors. Japanese towel critic Tetsuya Abe demonstrates how to wash towels on a TV show. He first boils a towel in hot water for 3 to 4 minutes, then rinse it with water, and the odor (bacteria) on the towel disappears.

  Kensuke Kanzaki, director of the long-established Japanese laundromat “Hakuyosha,” recommended using sodium percarbonate to help cleaning. Sodium percarbonate, baking soda, and citric acid are known as the “Three Treasures of Cleaning for the Mothers.” They are not only non-toxic, odorless, and pollution-free, but also have bleaching power, decontamination, and odor removal properties. Kensuke Kanzaki said in a post that the use of sodium percarbonate is very simple. Just put the towel(s) into the washbasin, sprinkle 1 cup of sodium percarbonate evenly on the towel(s), add 140-176 °F (60-80 ℃) hot water, soak for 30 minutes, and then clean it in the usual way.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 22:20

• China Dominates Among Cities With The Most Skyscrapers In 2023
  China Dominates Among Cities With The Most Skyscrapers In 2023

  When it comes to soaring skylines and architectural marvels, no country has embraced the vertical revolution quite like China.

  In this graphic, which uses data from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH), Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins and Nick Routley reveal the 25 cities with the most skyscrapers and supertall buildings globally.

  Unsurprisingly, China’s cities dominate the list, solidifying the country’s reputation as a global powerhouse of tall buildings.

  

  The 25 Top Cities by Skyscraper Count

  Topping the charts is Hong Kong, with an impressive 657 skyscrapers, including six supertalls (buildings over 300 meters tall).

  Rank	City	Country	Skyscrapers (>150m)	Supertalls (>300m)
  1	Hong Kong	🇨🇳 China	657	6
  2	Shenzhen	🇨🇳 China	513	16
  3	New York City	🇺🇸 United States	421	16
  4	Dubai	🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates	395	28
  5	Guangzhou	🇨🇳 China	254	11
  6	Shanghai	🇨🇳 China	250	5
  7	Kuala Lumpur	🇲🇾 Malaysia	211	5
  8	Chongqing	🇨🇳 China	205	5
  9	Tokyo	🇯🇵 Japan	200	0
  10	Wuhan	🇨🇳 China	183	5
  11	Chicago	🇺🇸 United States	178	7
  12	Jakarta	🇮🇩 Indonesia	160	1
  13	Chengdu	🇨🇳 China	150	0
  14	Bangkok	🇹🇭 Thailand	133	3
  15	Shenyang	🇨🇳 China	129	3
  16	Singapore	🇸🇬 Singapore	128	0
  17	Nanning	🇨🇳 China	122	6
  18	Mumbai	🇮🇳 India	114	0
  19	Tianjin	🇨🇳 China	109	3
  20	Nanjing	🇨🇳 China	108	7
  21	Toronto	🇨🇦 Canada	106	0
  22	Busan	🇰🇷 South Korea	106	4
  23	Seoul	🇰🇷 South Korea	104	2
  24	Changsha	🇨🇳 China	97	5
  25	Melbourne	🇦🇺 Australia	94	1

  Hong Kong, along with Shenzhen (#2), and Guangzhou (#5) are part of the burgeoning megacity known as the Pearl River Delta, which is home to over 1,500 skyscrapers. This is even more impressive when considering that Shenzhen was a small fishing village until the 1970s.

  New York City secures the third position on the list, boasting an impressive tally of 421 skyscrapers. Although it may have relinquished its title to Chinese cities, the city’s skyline endures as a globally renowned symbol, prominently featuring the iconic Empire State Building. Notably, while the Empire State Building enjoys widespread familiarity, it no longer ranks among the world’s 50 tallest structures.

  Rounding out the top five is Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, which grabs the fourth position with 395 skyscrapers, a staggering 28 of which are supertalls. This desert oasis has become synonymous with grandiose architecture and record-breaking structures, exemplified by the Burj Khalifa, which is the world’s current tallest building at 828 meters (2,715 ft).

  China’s Numbers in Context

  Looking at this data from another perspective, China actually has more skyscrapers on this list than the rest of the world combined.

  Country	Cities in Top 25	Skyscrapers	Supertalls
  🇨🇳 China	12	2777	72
  🌐 Rest of World	13	2350	67

  China’s rapid urbanization, economic growth, and ambitious construction projects have fueled this impressive feat. There’s no doubt that the country’s relentless pursuit of vertical development, coupled with its booming population and thriving cities, has positioned China as the unrivaled leader in the global skyscraper race.

  The Future of the Global Skyline

  As the world continues to reach new heights in architectural marvels, there are even more supertall skyscrapers in the pipeline that will reshape skylines across the globe.

  From the soaring Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia, poised to surpass the Burj Khalifa as the world’s tallest building, to the remarkable Merdeka 118 in Kuala Lumpur, which is set to claim the title of the world’s second-tallest structure when it opens in June 2023, these projects will captivate city dwellers for years to come.

  Even as these new monumental buildings rise, China’s prominence in the world of skyscrapers—with three cities in the top five globally—is likely to remain unchallenged.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 22:00

• US Remains Hot Spot For Semiconductor Design
  US Remains Hot Spot For Semiconductor Design

  The global microchip industry is currently split between several geographic hubs, as data from the Semiconductor Industry Association shows. 

  As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz shows in the chart below, the design of the components is in large parts carried out in the United States and South Korea, while the manufacturing and assembly/packaging stages are mainly done in China and Taiwan.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The semiconductor industry is divided into several distinct stages: design, manufacture (split into the sourcing of materials and production of equipment as well as the actual wafer fabrication) and finally the assembly of components.

  Companies that can do all the steps are called embedded device manufacturers (IDMs), with examples like Samsung and Intel.

  Other companies have no manufacturing facilities and only design electronic chips – they are known as fabless companies.

  The actual production of semiconductors is in this case outsourced to companies called foundries.

  In 2022, the three largest were Asian companies (TSMC and UMC of Taiwan and Samsung Electronics of South Korea).

  The semiconductor industry has been experiencing a steady rise in demand due to the increasing use of their products, for example in smartphones and automotive/industrial applications. The Covid-19 pandemic has had a major impact on global supply, with disruptions seen in key manufacturing regions China and Taiwan where factories were forced to close during lockdowns. Despite this, the industry has since recovered, with its global revenue increasing every year between 2020 and 2022. But new surges in demand as well as difficulties in the allocation of production capacity have led to new shortages. In addition, diplomatic tensions between the United States, Taiwan and China continue to affect global supply chains.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 21:20

• Hezbollah Hosts War Drills For Media Amid High Tensions With Israel
  Hezbollah Hosts War Drills For Media Amid High Tensions With Israel

  In a rare display of its military potential, the Lebanese fighters of Hezbollah on Sunday staged a series of war drills in front of an audience of invited journalists. The show of force comes as tensions between Israel on the one side, and Hezbollah as well as Palestinians in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza on the other. 

  #Hezbollah fighters detonate border wall and storm the Israeli settlements in Upper Galilee before heading into Al-Quds
  ……#Hezbollah_military_drills #مناورة_المقاومة_الإسلامية #قسماً_قادرون_سنعبر #عيد_المقاومة_والتحرير pic.twitter.com/O21GO6xOKp

  — ManarWeb (@WebManar) May 21, 2023

  Senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine said the display “confirm[s] our complete readiness to confront any aggression” by Israel. 

  Hezbollah says it carried out military training drills today in Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/2irHFZbrOR

  — Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) May 21, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The event came before “Liberation Day” — when Lebanese commemorate the May 25, 2000 withdrawal of the Israeli military from southern Lebanon — and after Thursday’s annual “Flag March” in Israel, a Zionist event that’s heavy on racist and genocidal chants directed at Palestinians, such as “Death to Arabs” and “may your village burn.”  

  Hosted at a training site in southern Lebanon, the various displays included the destruction of a simulated Israeli border wall, explosions consuming Israeli flags on hillsides and fighters firing from the backs of motorcycles. 

  

  Safieddine hinted about Hezbollah having a precision-guided missiles, but the group did not display them. According to this video, however, Hezbollah showed off surface-to-air missiles with Iranian sights: 

  #Lebanon 🇱🇧: #Hezbollah fighters have recently conducted a military maneuver; which also shows several interesring pieces.

  Some of the fighters can be seen with several 9K310 Igla-1 (SA-16 Gimlet) MANPADS fitted with #Iranian 🇮🇷 ‘TIS-S-60’ thermal sights (ht: @fighterxwar). pic.twitter.com/NjDjtfbuzg

  — War Noir (@war_noir) May 21, 2023

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  Hezbollah anti-drone weapons pic.twitter.com/XANphIXUkd

  — Middle East Observer (@MEO_Analysis) May 21, 2023

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  Rockets are a major cornerstone of Hezbollah’s arsenal, with some estimating the militia has stockpiled more than 130,000 of them. It’s one reason why Hezbollah is often called the world’s most-armed non-state military force — and why the Iran-aligned militia is a meaningful check on Israel’s military ambitions. 

  Hezbollah terror organization holds maneuvers, presumably in Mleeta “tourist” site, showcasing their MLRS launchers #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/LRPlx9eONd

  — Aleph א (@no_itsmyturn) May 21, 2023

  April saw the one of the largest exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel in recent years. That violence accompanied a broader Palestinian backlash against Israel, sparked by a police raid on Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque the included the brutal beating of Muslim worshippers. 

  #Lebanon 🇱🇧: A noteable photo of the sniper unit of #Hezbollah during the recently held military maneuver.

  The fighters appear to be armed with a large quantity of Russian ORSIS SE T-5000 sniper rifles and at least one Mk 14 EBR-RI (Enhanced Battle Rifle). pic.twitter.com/kNQ2deJY9M

  — War Noir (@war_noir) May 21, 2023

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  Have to say I am quite impressed with Hezbollah’s military exercises over the weekend.

  From a secretive group of a few hundred volunteer fighters, to an army consisting of tens of thousands of soldiers regularly displaying their capabilities – all in the space of two decades. pic.twitter.com/vgTWZ1gbUi

  — Maharlika 🇵🇭🇷🇺 (@Jordanpkjj) May 22, 2023

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  Presence of ordinary people in Hezbollah’s exercise shows the resistance had a significant presence & influence among the Lebanese public opinion, & this presence & influence has made the people of Lebanon live with more peace & security. pic.twitter.com/xw8ak2iOFo

  — Middle East News (@Draganov313) May 21, 2023

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  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 20:40

• Will June Tax Payments Bump Debt Debate Into July?
  Will June Tax Payments Bump Debt Debate Into July?

  Update (1658ET): Stefel’s Chief Washington Policy Strategist, Brian Gardner, suggests that if today’s meeting between McCarthy and Biden fails to produce a pathway to an agreement, market volatility could increase on fears over missing the X-date.

  If President Biden and Speaker McCarthy can close the gap between them, then negotiators can work on the details during the week.  It is unlikely that Congress would be able to pass a long-term debt ceiling bill by the end of the week, but if an agreement is in place by Friday, then Congress could pass a short-term suspension of the debt ceiling. This would create the time to write the legislation and provide Members of Congress several days to review the bill (which Republicans would insist on) before voting on it. 

  That said, chances of a deal are uncertain given the current lack of urgency among ‘significant blocks of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.’ If no framework emerges by the end of the week, Gardner thinks it will come down to public pressure to dictate how long the standoff lasts.

  If the X-date is breached, Treasury will prioritize the payment of principal and interest on US Treasurys, so the chance of them defaulting is virtually nil. That said, it’s possible that Social Security payments, or military paychecks could be delayed – which would of course increase political pressure, and thus, the chances of a deal – yet which could also carry the risk of a downgrade in the credit rating of US government debt.

  Interestingly, Gardner also thinks that if the standoff is able to make it until June 15 – when quarterly tax payments are due – it might allow the debate to continue into July.

  

  Goldman (which Pro subscribers can find in the usual place) gets a little more specific, writing on Saturday that “A deadline of June 8 or 9 would affect a narrower range of payments. After June 2, there is no Social Security payment again until June 14, and the next coupon payment is due June 15, when the Treasury is likely to be taking in a large amount of tax revenue due to the quarterly tax deadline.”

  

  And for a ‘fun’ lookback at how we got here (don’t hyperbolic charts usually end well?);

  

  More recently:

  

  *  *  *

  Update (1600ET): In another letter to Congress, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was re-warned that it’s now “highly likely” that her department will run out of sufficient cash in early June, and repeated her warning that the moment could come as soon as June 1.

  “I am writing to note that we estimate that it is highly likely that Treasury will no longer be able to satisfy all of the government’s obligations if Congress has not acted to raise or suspend the debt limit by early June, and potentially as early as June 1,” Yellen said Monday in a letter to lawmakers. 

  Full letter here: 

  

  This fits with Goldman’s warning: 

  We estimate that as of May 17, the Treasury had around $160bn in cash and extraordinary measures remaining. Through June 1, we estimate that the Treasury will use around $85bn in room under the limit (a $130bn cash deficit offset by a $45bn reduction in intragovernmental debt), leaving around $75bn in headroom. By June 8-9 we estimate this would drop under $30bn, which is the minimum balance the Treasury has used in the past to project the debt limit deadline (Exhibit 1).

  

  However, the estimate is subject to substantial uncertainty so there is certainly a chance that receipts could slow more than expected and leave the Treasury short of cash by June 1 or 2. 

  Which probably explains why the short-term Bill market is at its most spooked yet…

  

  Although it is a low probability, Stifel warns that there is a chance that if the standoff lasts to June 15, it might extend into July.  Quarterly tax payments, due on June 15, could provide Treasury enough cash to meet all obligations into July and, in this case, Congress and the White House could conceivably use all of that time to negotiate a debt ceiling agreement.  The amount of pressure brought to bear by the public and financial market’s reaction will likely determine how long the standoff lasts. 

  However, most ominously, Stifel notes that many lawmakers in each party think the other party will bear the brunt of public anger if the debt ceiling is not raised which could mean the debt ceiling standoff lasts past this week.

  Today’s White House meeting could signal which path Washington takes.

  *  *  *

  President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) are scheduled to meet at 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday afternoon to attempt to get the debt ceiling negotiations back on track in the hopes of reaching a deal that could pass both the Republican-led House and Democratic-led Senate, after talks broke down over the weekend.

  

  The two have as few as 10 days to get a deal done to raise or suspend the debt ceiling before the US Treasury runs out of cash and other options to keep the lights on – with Biden cutting his G-7 trip short by four days, while speaking with McCarthy from Air Force One as he made his way home.

  “It went well,” Biden told reporters late Sunday following his arrival at the White House, adding “we’ll talk tomorrow.”

  Both Biden and McCarthy have vowed to avoid defaulting on the nation’s obligations for the first time in history, despite disagreements over how to proceed The GOP has insisted that any increase in borrowing be accompanied by steep cuts in government spending – and passed a House bill in April to accomplish this, while Democrats want a ‘clean’ increase with no strings attached. For months, Democrats have refused to negotiate, and only entered into talks in the last week as the deadline approached, the Wall Street Journal reports.

  “The gap in the top line numbers continues to be the biggest barrier to a deal,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD), chair of the Main Street Caucus of nearly 100 Republicans.

  Biden has said he would like to work to narrow the deficit with some tax increases to wealthy Americans, but McCarthy said tax increases are off the table. Democrats have accused Republicans of seeking draconian spending cuts that they said would hurt education and healthcare research programs. 

  GOP lawmakers also want to attach changes to permitting rules that would speed the process of building energy projects and to strengthen work requirements for government benefit programs, notions that the White House has signaled some openness to.

  Democrats want the debt ceiling increased until after the 2024 election, while Republicans’ original bill pushed the next debt ceiling deadline to March 2024. -WSJ

  The impasse has begun to translate to Wall Street jitters – with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen twice warning that the so-called “X-date” – the day treasury reserves fall too low to cover expenses – could arrive as soon as June 1, and Fitch and Moody’s ratings agencies warning that they could place the country’s credit under review if the X-date comes too close.

  

  In 2011, a similar standoff between the Obama-led Democrats and Republicans prompted S&P to lower its rating of US debt, sending markets reeling.

  Goldman Sachs and other financial firms have projected the date to fall around June 8 or 9, which would give Congress another week to act.

  “We do expect investors’ concerns to mount as the X-date approaches, particularly if there’s no solution and the sides look wide apart,” UBS managing director and chief U.S. economist, Jonathan Pingle, told The Washington Post. “As we approach, we basically see equity markets are increasingly likely to sell off, volatility indexes move higher, and there are going to be shifts and concerns in financial markets that aren’t going to be great to live through.”

  “My sense is that if we get toward the end of the coming week and the rhetoric is dark, we’ll see a lot more red on the screen,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics , adding that “global investors are more panicked than domestic investors.”

  Before talks broke down on Friday – with Republicans rejecting a White House offer to freeze, rather than reduce spending, the GOP’s top negotiator, Rep. Garret Graves (LA) offered a proposal to cut federal spending by more than $1200 billion in the coming fiscal year, and to cap most agencies’ budgets through the 2030 fiscal year, according to the Post, citing two people familiar with the offer who spoke on condition of anonymity. The GOP proposal – which was essentially their April bill which was approved by the House – also called for tougher immigration enforcement at the southern US border.

  The White House responded to the offer, countering with a freeze on spending in the 2024 fiscal year to 2023 levels, arguing that it would represent a cut because budgets would not rise with inflation, according to WaPo.

  Republicans outright rejected that counter, insisting that domestic spending must undergo a significant cut so that overall spending drops in the upcoming fiscal year.

  On Monday, the House Freedom Caucus is expected to urge McCarthy to reject any offer from Biden unless it includes beefed up border security, cuts to the FBI, and every provision in the House-passed bill.

  “The Freedom Caucus will vote next week to basically accept only what we have sent to him plus what we’re adding to it,” according to Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), a member of the caucus.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 20:29

• The True Cost Of Energy Generated From Wind Turbines
  The True Cost Of Energy Generated From Wind Turbines

  Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Claims of wind power being pro-environment often do not consider the damaging effects these projects can have on wildlife and ecosystems, thus hiding the “true cost” of such initiatives.

  Wind power projects can threaten birds that fly within their vicinity and trigger a decline in their population; it can harm marine life due to noise pollution, and affect the growth of plants in the region where it is located. Driven by subsidies granted by the federal government, the growth of wind projects has triggered concerns about the cumulative impacts they have on the environment.

  There have been growing protests against wind power projects across the world. In the United States, people have opposed setting up wind turbines in Lake Erie due to concerns about the environmental impact of the project.

  In New Jersey, protestors have asked to pause the development of an offshore wind farm which they claim has led to dolphins and whales washing ashore.

  In Norway, climate activist Greta Thunberg has protested against a proposal to build two wind farms on the Sami reindeer grazing grounds. The Sami are the only indigenous people recognized within the EU and say that their tradition of herding reindeer will be put in danger due to the wind farms.

  

  Danger to Birds and Whales

  The blades of wind turbines can be fatal to birds. When the first commercial wind power plants were established in the United States, they had not considered the impact the project would have on birds and other flying creatures like bats. Not only are birds harmed by colliding with the wind blades but flying bats can be affected by changes in the air pressure resulting from blade rotations.

  The proliferation of wind turbines is believed to pose a significant danger to the population of golden eagles which are already said to be in decline in certain regions.

  An Associated Press analysis found that a significant number of eagles were dying while fewer criminal cases were being pursued—suggesting an intentional “trade-off” between bird deaths and implementing of clean power generation.

  “They are rolling over backwards for wind companies,” said Mike Lockhart, a former U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service biologist, according to the outlet. “I think they are killing a hell of a lot more eagles than they ever anticipated.”

  Dozens of permits for wind projects that are either approved or pending are estimated to result in around 6,000 eagles getting killed off over multiple decades.

  A 2013 paper estimated the mean bird annual deaths in the United States due to collision at wind facilities to be 234,000. With roughly 50,000 megawatts of installed capacity in the country, this comes to around 4.68 bird deaths per megawatt.

  The Biden administration has set a target of deploying 30,000 megawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030. At 4.68 bird deaths per megawatt, this could result in 140,000 additional birds dying annually.

  The installation of wind turbines as well as the noise created by their operation can have a harmful effect on whales.

  Last year, an official from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) warned against setting up wind projects off the coast of New England because it would threaten the population of right whales in the region.

  In 2011, there were around 478 of these creatures, a number that came down to 350 in 2022. In January, Rep Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) demanded an end to offshore wind activity in New Jersey after an “unprecedented” number of whales washed ashore in the region.

  Climatic and Environmental Changes

  Wind projects alter the habitats where they are located, changing the vegetation and other landscape features of the region. Setting up a wind farm necessitates the creation of open spaces. Vast open spaces tend to raise the speed of wind. Such minute changes can result in an uptick in temperatures and a reduction in humidity levels.

  Higher temperatures at night can cause plants to release more CO2 than usual. This carbon dioxide is essential for the growth of the plants. By releasing the CO2, plant growth can thus get affected. In farming areas where wind turbines are established, this could mean lower crop yields.

  A 2018 study found that wind power can impact the climate by altering the atmospheric boundary layer. “We find that generating today’s US electricity demand with wind power would warm Continental US surface temperatures by 0.24 degrees Celsius,” it said.

  Warming effect was found to be strongest at night, with the nighttime warming effect observed at 28 operational US wind farms.

  A study from 2010 discovered that “impacts from wind turbines on surface meteorological conditions are likely to affect agricultural practices as well as communities living in residential area around the farms,” it said.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 20:20

• Panama Canal Hit By Shipping Restrictions As Water Crisis Set To Worsen
  Panama Canal Hit By Shipping Restrictions As Water Crisis Set To Worsen

  Due to severe drought, authorities at the Panama Canal are set to impose new draft restrictions in the coming days. These rules, affecting one of the world’s most crucial maritime routes, will force vessels to reduce cargo weight and incur higher fees. 

  Bloomberg cited canal spokesperson Octavio Colindres who said neo-Panamex container ships seeking to cross the canal that connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans must comply with a maximum depth of up to 44.5 feet, down from 45 feet. This will force vessels to haul less cargo or otherwise transport fewer goods. 

  Panama Canal Ship Traffic 

  

  Colindres said a draft restriction of 44 feet would be imposed by the end of the month. A 50-foot draft is considered average for the canal during normal weather conditions, though a recent drought has left Lake Gatun, the largest of two lakes that feed the canal, with extremely low water levels. 

  

  Around 6% of all global maritime traffic passes through the canal, mainly from the US, China, and Japan. During the 2016 and 2019 droughts, the draft limit went as low as 43 feet. 

  Perhaps the onset of El Niño, a weather pattern that brings drier conditions across much of Central America, is partially responsible for arid conditions, which might worsen as the Northern Hemisphere summer is less than 30 days away. 

  “The lower-than-usual water levels in the Gatun Lake are causing severe draft restrictions on vessels transiting the Panama Canal,” shipper Hapag-Lloyd told customers in recent weeks. The advisory was directed towards vessels traveling from East Asia to North America that must pay a surcharge after June 1 to traverse the canal. 

  Bloomberg warned of a possible shipping disruption if canal water levels continued to drop:

  LNG carriers, which are highly dependent on the canal, are not as affected by the draft changes because the vessels have fewer draft restrictions than those carrying heavier industrial goods or commodities. But any bottlenecks are a cause for worry considering that US LNG export expansions are due to come online in the next five years.

  Bloomberg added: 

  Asia-to-US cargo can take alternative routes through the Suez Canal. Or they can use ports in southern California, which would involve loading containers onto trucks or trains bound for Midwest and East Coast population centers. 

  And what’s to say, if the dry weather pattern continues, a vessel might be more prone to grounding, which could disrupt maritime traffic. Either way, less cargo will be flowing through the waterway due to draft restrictions.

  “The melting of ice across the planet is accelerating at a record rate /…/ The rate of loss is now in line with the worst-case scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.” https://t.co/Xn9wpWSgfF

  — Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) January 25, 2021

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  Well, Greta, Panama Canal could use some of this melting water you described would drown the world… 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 20:00

• PAC To 'Draft' Tucker Carlson For President In 2024 Launches
  PAC To ‘Draft’ Tucker Carlson For President In 2024 Launches

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A new political action committee (PAC) was formed to try and convince Tucker Carlson to join the 2024 presidential race, saying only the former Fox News host can defeat President Joe Biden in the general election.

  

  The so-called “Draft Tucker Carlson” PAC released an advertisement, saying: “Republicans need a new leader that can stand up to Biden. It’s time to draft Tucker Carlson.”

  Shortly after Carlson was ousted from Fox News in late April, the Draft Tucker PAC filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). That ad made its debut last week on Twitter.

  “Republicans need a new leader, and Tucker Carlson is ready to lead,” the ad states, comparing Carlson to the late radio host Rush Limbaugh. “No one in America is more articulate and pins down leftists in both parties better than Tucker.”

  It also says that Carlson “is witty, sharp, and mocks woke nonsense” before adding that he will “whip Biden in a debate.”

  The head of the PAC is Chris Ekstrom, who told The Hill that he personally knows Carlson “vaguely” and was approached about forming the PAC before Carlson’s exit from Fox News. Speaking to The Hill, Ekstrom said that Carlson has a “realistic opportunity” to run for president and that other Republican candidates have issues.

  “I’m very concerned that they’re going to not move the debate as far right as it ought to be,” Ekstrom said of both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is widely expected to announce a 2024 presidential bid. “If Tucker Carlson entered the race in a reasonable amount of time and just continued in the same territory that he was covering at Fox, I think that’d be a rude awakening for both President Trump and Governor DeSantis.”

  Republicans need a new leader that can stand up to Biden. It’s time to draft Tucker Carlson pic.twitter.com/FV9s3wxalc

  — Draft Tucker Carlson (@DrafttuckerPAC) May 19, 2023

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  [ZH: note the community note]

  Another individual involved in the PAC, Charlie Kolean, told the outlet that Carlson would move “the conversation to the right, just in a macro way, with candidates taking more solid stances rather than being like a moderate Republican.”

  Carlson has not made any public overtures toward a potential 2024 White House bid. Since he left Fox News, the former host has issued few public statements, although he released two viral videos on Twitter including one saying he would be moving his program to the social media platform, although it’s not clear when.

  “The best you can hope for in the news business at this point is the freedom to tell the fullest truth that you can. But there are always limits. And you know that if you bump up against those limits often enough, you will be fired for it,” Carlson said in his most recent Twitter video.

  Not a ‘Scam’

  In The Hill report, an alleged unnamed source connected to Carlson said that the former Fox host is not looking to run for office and was critical of the PAC’s efforts. The alleged source also claimed the PAC’s operators are “trying to make a quick buck” and that “no one should donate” to the group.

  “This isn’t some kind of scam PAC or grift. I hate that. That is something that I’ve always tried to oppose,” Ekstrom told the outlet. “All the money is spent on the fight with me,” he added.

  While Carlson has publicly rejected the notion of running for president and reportedly recently joked about it, Ekstrom alleged that he has been “testing the water for quite a while,” reported The Hill. He said Carlson spoke at an event in Iowa, which has historically been an early presidential primary state.

  The  PAC, Koelan told the outlet, will be “exceptionally well-funded,” and it will “easily” spend at least $150,000 to build its name recognition. It aims to sponsor polls and create radio and digital advertisement campaigns.

  For the past several years, Carlson was the highest-rated Fox News host and often had the highest-rated cable news program in general. In March, he drew well over 3 million viewers per episode, a figure that Fox News has not been able to recapture since his sudden exit in late April.

  Nielsen ratings show that the temporary replacement program, “Fox News Tonight,” has drawn significantly fewer viewers during the 8 p.m. timeslot. But one Fox News advertising executive recently said in May that several large corporate advertisers approached Fox to do campaigns. Over the years, a range of big-name companies dropped advertising during Carlson’s show over what they said were controversial statements by the former host.

  The popularity gap Carlson enjoys over Fox News among conservatives has increased sharply in the wake of his departure, said a new poll, showing that his net favorability rating among Republicans stands at +59. Fox News, by contrast, has a -4 favorability rating, the numbers show.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 19:40

• Russia Issues Dire Warning After US Approves Ukrainian Strikes On Crimea
  Russia Issues Dire Warning After US Approves Ukrainian Strikes On Crimea

  Russia has issued another stern warning related to further potential Ukrainian attacks on Crimea. “Strikes on this territory are considered by us as an attack on any other region of the Russian Federation. It is important that the United States is fully aware of the Russian response,” Moscow’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, warned Sunday.

  This was in response to an earlier weekend statement by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to CNN. He said while speaking from the G7 summit in Japan over the weekend, “we have not placed limitations on Ukraine being able to strike on its territory… What we’ve said is that we won’t enable Ukraine with US-systems to attack Russia. And we believe Crimea is Ukraine.”

  

  However, the US has consistently denied that it has OK’d Ukraine using US-supplied advanced weaponry to mount such attacks. 

   Antonov further stated on Telegram in response that “the unconditional approval of strikes on Crimea using American and other Western weapons” alongside the move among Western allies to supply Ukraine with jets “clearly demonstrate that the United States has never been interested in peace.”

  He warned the US administration against “thoughtless judgments on Crimea, especially in terms of ‘blessing’ the Kiev regime for air attacks” on the peninsula.

  Per Russian state media, other Kremlin officials weighed in even more forcefully, warning that even nuclear disaster could be the result:

  Sullivan’s remarks likewise triggered outrage from Crimean Deputy Prime Minister Georgy Muradov, who opined that by allowing Ukraine to use US-made planes to target the peninsula, the White House had “agreed to unleashing a nuclear war.”

  The official recalled that Crimea hosts Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. “An attack on one of the pillars of Russia’s strategic security legally obliges our country to use all available means to prevent it from being undermined.” 

  Russia has also recently accused Ukrainian forces of using UK-supplied long range rockets which are capable of hitting inside Russia.

  

  This is also a cause for concern in terms of possible Russia-NATO direct escalation: “Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of more than 250 kilometers, give Ukraine the capacity to strike well behind Russian front lines and as far as Moscow-occupied Crimea,” US state-funded RFERL underscores, while adding that “British media reports said Kyiv had promised not to use the missiles to strike inside Russia’s territory.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 19:20

• Trump Town Hall Destroys Fake News Silo
  Trump Town Hall Destroys Fake News Silo

  Authored by Frank Miele via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The inventors of artificial intelligence went before Congress last week and warned that without government supervision, the emerging technology could be employed by the unscrupulous to mislead people and spread falsehoods.

  

  It’s frightening, but not without precedent.

  If you want to know what it would look like if an AI were programmed to be relentless, ruthless, and amoral in service to a political agenda, you don’t have to look far.

  Just consider the mainstream media. They have tailored their so-called news coverage to focus entirely on attacking conservatives and covering up for Democrats. Anyone who challenges their narrative is accused of lying or peddling “conspiracy theories.” Any facts that disprove their assumptions are either ignored entirely or summarily dismissed as Republican “talking points.”

  And then remember this: Thanks to the First Amendment, the dangerous lies of the media cannot be subject to government supervision or control. It’s entirely up to us to sniff out and reject the falsehoods, but if you are a trusting soul who can’t imagine a world where you are intentionally kept in the dark about fundamental truths, then you will always be living an illusion.

  A perfect metaphor for this state of blissful ignorance was unveiled recently on the Apple TV+ show “Silo,” which tells the story of a few thousand people who have been living underground in a massive silo for generations. Their only contact with the outside world is a video link to a camera placed on the surface, which shows a forlorn landscape littered with the bodies of those few daring people who had exited the silo after growing sick of being virtual prisoners. The video of the bleak and deadly surface plays nonstop in public places to remind the residents of the silo that there is nothing for them on the outside.

  In our metaphoric analysis, that video represents the relentlessly negative and destructive narrative of the mainstream media, played over and over for an unwitting population. There is little reason for the average person to doubt what he or she has been told so convincingly by so many seemingly sincere talking heads. But what happens if the public gets a glimpse of reality?

  Just such an occurrence happened in a recent episode of “Silo” when the main generator for the silo was turned off in order to accomplish needed repairs. In the brief moment between the power going down and the backup generator kicking in, the Hiroshima-like deathscape on the video screen was replaced by a halcyon sunlit pasture of green grass and trees. Blink and you missed it. And if you are one of the characters who lives in the silo, you keep your mouth shut. No one so far has admitted what they saw or asked questions about it. That’s what happens when you are fed an endless diet of lies. The truth looks like an unappetizing worm.

  But sooner or later, as the Bard tells us, the truth will out, or in this case the worm will turn.

  That transformation for the mainstream media began on May 10, when Donald Trump climbed out of the silo and showed millions of CNN viewers that the lies they’ve been told for years were absurd and dangerous, starting with the notion that the 45th president himself is absurd and dangerous. Town hall moderator Kaitlan Collins did her best to lock down Trump with questions intended to humiliate or mock him. But what she did not count on was that having an audience full of real people from the free state of New Hampshire would make her questions look as fake as that dead planet on “Silo.”

  From the moment the crowd of 300 or so Republican and independent voters gave Trump a standing ovation as he was introduced, it was obvious that Collins was in for a long night. So was the television audience of 3.3 million presumably mostly liberal CNN viewers who have been fed a steady drumbeat of anti-Trump propaganda for more than six years. Collins did her best to unsettle Trump by bringing up topics such as the legitimacy of the 2020 election, the Jan. 6 riots, and the many legal cases brought against him by Democratic district attorneys or funded by Democratic donors. But in every single instance, Trump was prepared to answer by rejecting and refuting the left-leaning assumptions implicit in the questions. And the audience kept applauding. They even cheered when Trump called Collins a “nasty person” because she didn’t listen to his answers, or dismissed them because they didn’t agree with her own preconceptions.

  It was no doubt maddening to the usual suspects at CNN, as was made obvious by the fact that they cut short the scheduled 90-minute town hall by nearly 20 minutes and then proceeded to devote nearly two hours to re-establishing the official CNN narrative: Trump is absurd and dangerous, and can’t be trusted no matter how much those crazy people from New Hampshire seemed to like and respect him!

  Jake Tapper started the commentary by saying “Mr. Trump’s first lie was told just seconds into the night with his false familiar claim that the 2020 election was ‘a rigged election,’ and the falsehoods kept coming fast and furious about the Jan. 6 insurrection, about the threats to Vice President Pence, about Pence’s ability to overturn the election, about Covid, about the economy and more.”

  In other words, the picture you just saw where Trump was witty, charming, in full command of the facts and unwilling to be pushed around by a junior reporter was not what you saw at all. To paraphrase Obi-Wan Kenobi, “Nothing to see here. Move along.”

  Suddenly, we were back safe and sound in the universe where Trump is a troublesome oaf, and where all the so-called smart people agree that the walls are once again closing in on the mega-villain known as the MAGA Prince. It didn’t require evidence to say so, just a concert of voices in agreement that nothing we had seen with our own eyes was real. I call it the Deep Fake of mainstream media – mouths moving but the words coming out of them are untethered from reality. Just an anti-Trump, anti-MAGA, anti-conservative agenda that can be twisted around any and every news story.

  Perhaps the best (or worst) example of this can be found on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” which provides the most-one sided panel of talking heads this side of Rachel Maddow. The episode on the morning after Trump’s invasion of CNN was more proof that the former president had terrified the mainstream media mob. Which means they could only do one thing in response – lie.

  In that regard it was similar to almost any day on “Morning Joe,” but host Joe Scarborough reserved his greatest vitriol for this episode. Right out of the gate, he and his producers tried to imply that Trump was delusional about Jan. 6 by matching his words about the massive rally he held that day with pictures of the riot a few hours later at the U.S. Capitol. So when Trump said that his supporters were at the rally “with love in their heart,” Scarborough and his team conflated that with pictures of rioters at the Capitol, even though they had nothing to do with each other. It was a bit of propaganda worthy of Leni Riefenstahl, the Nazi filmmaker. Four hours of that kind of distortion was too much to watch, but I made it through 90 minutes and came to the conclusion that Scarborough and his guests were tools of a self-serving narrative to the same degree as a ChatGPT deep fake, and both were equally soulless.

  Coincidentally, CNN superstar Anderson Cooper unwittingly took up the silo metaphor himself the day after the town hall when he responded to outraged CNN viewers who could not believe that their beloved left-wing network had veered from their usual Deep Fake script and allowed Trump an opportunity to demonstrate that his brand of conservatism has a strong following that cannot be easily dismissed.

  “You have every right to be outraged today and angry and never watch this network again,” Cooper said on his show. “But do you think staying in your silo and only listening to people you agree with is going to make that person go away?”

  Based on the heated reaction to Cooper’s remarks, yes, most CNN viewers want to stick their heads in the sand and pretend that front-running candidate Trump doesn’t exist. So much easier to listen to the fake narrative that paints the former president as the most hated man on the planet than to consider, as Cooper reminded his viewers, that “the man you were so disturbed to see and hear from last night, that man is the front-runner for the Republican nomination for president. And that audience that upset you, that’s a sampling of about half the country. They are your family members, your neighbors, and they are voting. And many said they’re voting for him.”

  Of course, it’s not just television media that promotes a fake narrative about Trump and his supporters. Consider this tweet by the New York Times on Tuesday after the release of the Durham Report, which confirmed that the FBI had no legitimate evidence against Donald Trump when it launched its Russia collusion probe:

  “John Durham’s report on the FBI’s investigation into the Trump campaign’s work with Russia, which produced no startling revelations, is being viewed by some conservatives as lending credence to their conspiracy theories about the U.S. agency.”

  Say what? “No startling revelations” implies that the New York Times already knew that there was no legitimacy to the allegations against Trump. But if that’s the case, then why hasn’t the Times returned the Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting it shared with the Washington Post in 2018? Both of those esteemed newspapers promoted the Democrat-originated lie that Trump was a Russian asset and they did absolutely nothing to uncover the truth about how the FBI was co-opted by the Biden administration as a campaign asset for Hillary Clinton.

  And even more outrageously, the New York Times (the nation’s putative paper of record) twisted the damning facts of the Durham Report into a Republican fever dream that could apparently be dismissed as one more “conspiracy theory.” Hey, Mainstream Media! It’s not a conspiracy theory any more if it’s proven to be true – then, it’s a conspiracy fact. Durham concluded that the FBI persecuted the 45th president of the United States without any credible evidence, and no amount of willful denial will change that devastating charge.

  Not sure if reality will win out against the phony mainstream narrative in the long run, but my hope rests with 300 New Hampshire voters who thumbed their collective nose at CNN on national TV and said in no uncertain terms that they don’t want to live in the Fake News silo any more. What educated person does?

  Frank Miele, the retired editor of the Daily Inter Lake in Kalispell, Mont., is a columnist for RealClearPolitics. His newest book, “What Matters Most: God, Country, Family and Friends,” is available from his Amazon author page. Visit him at HeartlandDiaryUSA.com or follow him on Facebook @HeartlandDiaryUSA or on Twitter or Gettr @HeartlandDiary.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 19:00

• Hedge Funds Most Bearish On Oil Since 2011 Just As Physical Demand Surges
  Hedge Funds Most Bearish On Oil Since 2011 Just As Physical Demand Surges

  Hedge funds may be finally piling into stocks just as the S&P breaks out above the 4,200 resistance level (because Wall Street “pros” always sell low and buy high), but unable to shake the conviction that the economy is headed for the crapper, they are ramping up their shorts in other assets to brace for what is coming, and nowhere more so than in oil where bearish hedge fund bets just hit the highest in 12 years.

  As Bloomberg shows, the trading positions of hedge funds and other non-commercial traders are at the most bearish levels since at least 2011 across a combination of all major oil contracts…

  

  … and in bets that are perhaps most indicative of recession expectations, speculators’ combined views on diesel and gasoil – fuels that power the economy – are near the most bearish levels since early in the Covid-19 pandemic.

  

  That said, positioning in gasoil and US diesel ticked slightly higher in the latest week, while commercial traders who work for the producers as well as other merchants of crude, aren’t so bearish, with some even reducing hedges against a potential price drop.

  Still, “it’s pretty remarkable to see this type of positioning,” Greg Sharenow, who manages a portfolio focused on energy and commodities at PIMCO, told Bloomberg in an interview.

  The gloom over the oil market this year – a sharp contrast to last year’s Ukraine war-driven meltup – has come from multiple directions, including expectations that the Fed’s rate hikes will provoke a contraction (oddly enough, this has not impacted stocks or bonds) and China’s disappointing rebound from its Covid-19 restrictions. Add in the threat of a US default if politicians fail to raise the debt ceiling and the possibility that OPEC+ may not deliver all the output cuts they’ve pledged, and traders have no shortage of bear scenarios to choose from.

  While investors are positioned for a significant business cycle downturn hitting petroleum consumption and prices in the remainder of 2023, prices for fuels such as gasoline and diesel are expected to hold up better than crude because fuel stocks are well below long-term seasonal averages and refineries are already processing more crude than usual according to Reuters analyst John Kemp.

  The extreme extent of the financial traders’ bearishness raises the risk of volatility if the OPEC and its allies decide to cut production further. That scenario will surely set off another brutal squeeze that forces bears to rush to exits, sends the price of oil soaring and worsens inflation.

  Meanwhile, Goldman projects any large gains in oil prices could unleash as much as $40 billion worth of buying in US crude and Brent alone from trend-following commodity trading advisers; however for now the only direction CTAs are pushing oil is lower.

  What is odd is that while hedge funds are positioned for a significant business cycle downturn hitting petroleum consumption and prices in the remainder of 2023 and have picked oil and only oil to express their bearish bets having been burned one too many times on their stock shorts, the underlying physical markets aren’t reflecting the dire state that traders are preparing for. On the contrary: refineries are processing the most crude for this time of year since the pandemic began, China crude demand is record high, air travel is rising just about everywhere, and gasoline demand in the US is now at the highest level since December 2021. At the same time, fuel inventories are below seasonal norms for gasoline and diesel in the US, and OPEC+ cuts and Canadian wildfires have limited crude supply.

  The International Energy Agency recently hiked its expectations for global oil demand growth this year on China’s post-pandemic rebound, which, despite a strong gain in consumer usage, has failed to live up to optimistic forecasts. That’s because industrial demand has been the central focus for traders, and weakness in manufacturing and trucking has kept them from going long on diesel.

  “Traders are focused on China recovery, specifically if the increase in consumer-led consumption can meaningfully outstrip weakness in industrial demand,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth.

  While a reversal of the bearish sentiment doesn’t appear imminent, a continued decline in inventories may help oil beat other asset classes.

  “If you do genuinely believe that we’re in a capital-disciplined and under-investing environment, then when the economy does stabilize, commodities, and oil within that, are likely to outperform over an extended period of time,” Pimco’s Sharenow said.

  In a note from Wells Fargo equity reearch, the bank writes that while its model implies a Q2 2023 build, the bank has not seen that in the US or other weekly data. In fact, its tracking of US/ARA and floating inventories (crude + products) indicates a modest draw since 3/31, with The most recent reports from China indicate draws from their oil storage to support local refining demand. And while visibility into China’s refined product stocks is murky, stronger crack spread trends imply no unusual refined product builds have occurred.

  As such, the bank’s base case assumption remains a modest recession by YE’23. If the economy avoids that outcome, “then an undersupplied oil market becomes a more likely event… This implies risk/reward for oil prices (and by extension, energy equities) is tilting more favorably as the calendar reaches mid-year.”

  Goldman agrees and writes that “inventory draws appear to have started” among global visible stocks, signaling a turning point for the market; the bank adds that oil price weakness has been driven by stronger-than-expected supply from Russia and record releases from US strategic reserves. And of course relentless shorting by hedge funds who are poised for another bruising short squeeze in the weeks ahead.

  Finally, while hedge funds are betting that OPEC is quietly overproducing and exporting much more than their recent quota permits, a recent update by Goldman Sachs shows that bears may be in for a very reude awakening, as seaborne net exports by OPEC countries which announced a cut in April have finally tumbled by over 1mmb/d over the past 2 weeks.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 18:40

• 646 Hospitals At Risk Of Closure, Ranked By State
  646 Hospitals At Risk Of Closure, Ranked By State

  By Laura Dyrda of Becker Hospital Review

  There are 646 rural hospitals at risk of closure due to financial issues, comprising around 30 percent of all rural hospitals in the U.S., according to the Center for Healthcare Quality & Payment Reform.

  The hospitals face losses on patient services as health plans aren’t paying enough to cover the cost of care delivery. The losses will likely increase as inflation and workforce shortages persist, according to the report, which was released in April. While rural hospitals are receiving some support through grants, local tax revenues or other profits, they still have low financial reserves and remain at risk.

  More than half the states in the U.S. report 25 percent or more of their rural hospitals are at risk of closure, and more than 200 hospitals nationwide are at immediate risk of closing.

  Here are the number and percentage of rural hospitals at risk of closing by state from the analysis:

  

   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 18:20

• Former Deputy Nat'l Security Adviser: FBI, CIA & DOJ Will Rig 2024 Election
  Former Deputy Nat’l Security Adviser: FBI, CIA & DOJ Will Rig 2024 Election

  Former Deputy National Security Adviser K.T. McFarland, who served for the first four months of the Trump administration under Michael Flynn, says that the deep state is going to rig the 2024 US election following their success in 2020.

  

  “We now have black-and-white evidence that the FBI interfered in the 2016 election. When they failed to elect Hillary Clinton, they set out to destroy the Trump administration,” she told Fox Business‘ Maria Bartiromo.

  “Go back to 2020. This time, the CIA got involved in the election with those 51 former intel agents who said the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation. So they’ve gotten away with it for two elections. They will surely try and get away with it in 2024, right?

  Because there are no consequences…

  “There is now hard evidence that there was election interference by the U.S. intelligence agencies and the Department of Justice. Those individuals must be terrified that a Republican president comes in with a Republican Attorney General, investigates them, and charges them with all of the crimes they have committed over the last eight years. Take it to the bank.

  They will absolutely interfere in 2024…

  These people are selling us out. Not only to foreign leaders, but they are interfering in our elections.

  They are tearing up the Constitution… This is just a gut punch to the American people.“

  Watch:

  h/t @KanekoaTheGreat

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 18:00

• Lawmakers Want Answers On NIH Trans Kids Study That Led To Two Suicides
  Lawmakers Want Answers On NIH Trans Kids Study That Led To Two Suicides

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  Republican lawmakers in the House and Senate have demanded answers from the National Institutes of Health over a two year study involving prescribing gender changing hormones to hundreds of children, as it emerged that two of the ‘youths’ ended up killing themselves.

  

  As Fox News reports, the study titled “Psychosocial Functioning in Transgender Youth after 2 Years of Hormones,” examined 315 individuals  “between the ages of 12 and 20 who identify as transgender and were given cross-sex hormones.”

  The study, involving 240 children, was funded by NIH which admits that “two young people tragically died by suicide.” 

  Despite the deaths, the NIH carried on the study to its conclusion.

  Over a dozen lawmakers, including Lauren Boebert, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul have penned a letter to the NIH director Dr. Lawrence Tabak.

  It’s almost like it was more important to get a certain result than to find the best result.

  — Mark Mazurik (@MarkMazurik) May 22, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The letter notes that “During this study, two young people died by suicide and eleven reported suicidal ideation,” adding that “Rather than shutting the study down after such serious adverse events, the researchers published their paper, concluding that the study was a success because cross-sex hormones had altered subjects’ physical appearance and improved psychosocial functioning.” 

  Researchers assert that “During the study period, appearance congruence, positive affect, and life satisfaction increased, and depression and anxiety symptoms decreased.”

  They also claim that despite 11 kids expressing a desire to kill themselves and two actually committing suicide, “Increases in appearance congruence were associated with concurrent increases in positive affect and life satisfaction and decreases in depression and anxiety symptoms.”

  North Carolina Senator Ted Budd, another co-signer of the GOP letter described the study as “absolutely tragic,” charging that those involved are “in search of an agenda and justifying an agenda, they’re not really about children’s safety as we’ve seen from the suicides.”

  The Republicans further note in their letter that “the four clinics and some of the researchers who conducted this experiment are outspoken advocates for conducting gender transition interventions on children.”

  “Were the individuals who tragically died by suicide while participating in this study minors?” the lawmakers ask, adding “Were participants and their parents given the opportunity to reconsider their consent and withdraw from this research in light of the suicides?”

  Watch:

  https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6327841400112&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

  *  *  *

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  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 17:40

• WTF Chart Of The Day: Bud Light Sales Dump For 6th Straight Week
  WTF Chart Of The Day: Bud Light Sales Dump For 6th Straight Week

  New industry data, according to The Wall Street Journal, shows that sales of Bud Light have declined for another week amid the controversy over the company’s decision to engage in a social media campaign with transgender influencer and activist Dylan Mulvaney.

  In the week starting on May 8, U.S. retail sales tumbled 28% compared with the same period a year ago, according to an analysis of Nielsen data by consulting company Bump Williams, with the decline showing no signs of stopping…

  

  Source: The Wall Street Journal

  As we have previously noted, the company placed Alissa Heinerscheid – the first woman in Bud Light’s four-decade history to run its marketing – and her boss, Daniel Blake, on leave. Heinerscheid was replaced in the role of head marketer for Bud Light by a seasoned beer executive and Blake’s role was eliminated to give senior marketers closer oversight on brand decisions. Heinerscheid and Blake remain on leave.

  Additionally, Bud Light has reportedly responded by buying unsold cases of the beer that are past their expiration date, signaling a change in the brand’s direction and an attempt to draw back to its original formula that appeals implicitly to its core customers.

  “The unfortunate reality that it happened without higher-level approval exposed a concerning lack of oversight for brand marketing decisions,” said in a Facebook statement.

  “That lack of oversight has been addressed.”

  Ironically, Anheuser-Busch is getting it in both ends with The Human Rights Campaign, an LGBT rights organization, said Anheuser-Busch had showed a “profound lack of fortitude” and should have stood in solidarity with Mulvaney as people attacked her on social-media and conservative news outlets. The group this month suspended the brewer’s Corporate Equality Index score, which ranks companies on their policies for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and queer employees.

  

  A Bud Light 2023 Super Bowl ad featured actor Miles Teller and his wife, Keleigh Sperry Teller, having an impromptu dance party in their living room.

  So, should we call this a boycott… or a girlcott?

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 17:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• China Dominates The World's Biggest Steel Producers
  China Dominates The World’s Biggest Steel Producers

  Steel is a critical component of modern industry and economy, essential for the construction of buildings, automobiles, and many other appliances and infrastructure used in our daily lives.

  Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte create this infographic, using data from the World Steel Association, to visualize the world’s top steel-producing countries, and highlights China’s ascent to the top, as it now makes up more than half of the world’s steel production.

  

  The State of Global Steel Production

  Global steel production in 2022 reached 1,878 million tonnes, barely surpassing the pre-pandemic production of 1,875 million tonnes in 2019.

  Country	2022 Production (in million tonnes)	Annual Production Change	Global Share
  🇨🇳 China	1013.0	-2.0%	53.9%
  🇮🇳 India	124.8	5.3%	6.6%
  🇯🇵 Japan	89.2	-7.9%	4.8%
  🇺🇸 United States	80.5	-6.5%	4.3%
  🇷🇺 Russia	71.5	-5.8%	3.8%
  🇰🇷 South Korea	65.9	-6.9%	3.5%
  🇩🇪 Germany	36.8	-8.8%	2.0%
  🇹🇷 Türkiye	35.1	-15.0%	1.9%
  🇧🇷 Brazil	34.0	-6.5%	1.8%
  🇮🇷 Iran	30.6	6.8%	1.6%
  🇮🇹 Italy	21.6	-13.0%	1.1%
  🇹🇼 Taiwan	20.7	-12.1%	1.1%
  🇻🇳 Vietnam	20.0	-15.0%	1.1%
  🇲🇽 Mexico	18.2	-1.9%	1.0%
  🇮🇩 Indonesia	15.6	8.3%	0.8%
  Rest of World	201.0	-11.2%	10.7%
  World Total	1878.5	-3.9%	100.0%

  2022’s steel production marked a significant reduction compared to the post-pandemic rebound of 1,960 million tonnes in 2021, with a year-over-year decline of 4.2%–the largest drop since 2009, and prior to that, 1991.

  This decline was spread across many of the world’s top steel producers, with only three of the top fifteen countries, India, Iran, and Indonesia, increasing their yearly production. Most of the other top steel-producing countries saw annual production declines of more than 5%, with Turkey, Italy, Taiwan, and Vietnam’s production all declining by double digits.

  Even the world’s top steel-producing nation, China, experienced a modest 2% decline, which due to the country’s large production amounted to a decline of 19.8 million tonnes, more than many other nations produce in a year.

  Despite India, the world’s second-largest steel producer, increasing its production by 5.3%, the country’s output still amounts to just over one-tenth of the steel produced by China.

  China’s Meteoric Rise in Steel Production

  Although China dominates the world’s steel production with more than a 54% share today, this hasn’t always been the case.

  In 1967, the World Steel Association’s first recorded year of steel production figures, China only produced an estimated 14 million tonnes, making up barely 3% of global output. At that time, the U.S. and the USSR were competing as the world’s top steel producers at 115 and 102 million tonnes respectively, followed by Japan at 62 million tonnes.

  Almost three decades later in 1996, China had successively overtaken Russia, the U.S., and Japan to become the top steel-producing nation with 101 million tonnes of steel produced that year.

  The early 2000s marked a period of rapid growth for China, with consistent double-digit percentage increases in steel production each year.

  The Recent Decline in China’s Steel Production

  Since the early 2000s, China’s average annual growth in steel production has slowed to 3.4% over the last decade (2013-2022), a considerable decline compared to the previous decade’s (2003-2012) 15.2% average annual growth rate.

  The past couple of years have seen China’s steel production decline, with 2021 and 2022 marking the first time the country’s production fell for two consecutive years in a row.

  While it’s unlikely China will relinquish its position as the top steel-producing nation anytime soon, it remains to be seen whether this recent decline marks the beginning of a new trend or just a brief deviation from the country’s consistent production growth.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 02:45

• Main Threat To Europe Is Resurgence In Islamic Terror Attacks, Warns French Minister Ahead Of Hosting Olympics
  Main Threat To Europe Is Resurgence In Islamic Terror Attacks, Warns French Minister Ahead Of Hosting Olympics

  Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

  French Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin has asked the U.S. government for greater intelligence sharing and warned of a resurgence in Islamic terrorist threats in Europe ahead of France hosting global sporting events in the coming year.

  

  During a two-day trip to Washington and New York this week, the French minister asked for more efficient Franco-American counter-terrorism cooperation and claimed Islamic terrorism remains the biggest threat to national security in Europe.

  “We have come to remind them that for Europeans and for France the primary risk is Sunni Islamist terrorism and that anti-terrorist collaboration between intelligence services is absolutely essential,” Darmanin said in an interview with Agence France-Presse.

  “At a time when Americans may have a more national perspective in terms of challenges (today) — white supremacy, repeated shootings, conspiracies — they must not forget what appears to us to be the primary threat in Europe: Sunni terrorism,” he added.

  Darmanin was speaking ahead of his country hosting the Rugby World Cup later this year and the Olympics next summer.

  He claimed there is yet again a risk of “Islamist terrorism,” which would again target France and her European neighbors, describing “an endogenous threat from people without networks but who, becoming radicalized, take action in a few hours, in a few days (…) someone who takes a knife, goes into a bakery and kills people.”

  France has been a frequent target for acts of terror, both from external threats and homegrown radicalized attackers facilitated by mass immigration from the Middle East, and the historically liberal visa requirements afforded to its Islam-dominated former colonies in North Africa.

  The severity of Islamist-motivated terror attacks peaked halfway through the last decade when attackers targeted a concert at the Bataclan theater, murdering 137 and injuring at least 416 people in November 2015. This was followed by a Tunisian Islamist terrorist driving a 19-ton cargo truck down the promenade in the southern city of Nice in July 2016; he rammed through a crowd celebrating Bastille Day, killing 86 people and injuring 434 others.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 05/22/2023 – 02:00

• US National Security Experts Urge No More Weapons For Ukraine In NY Times
  US National Security Experts Urge No More Weapons For Ukraine In NY Times

  Via Consortium News, 

  Last week, The New York Times published a full-page advertisement signed by 15 U.S. national security experts about the war in Ukraine. It was headed “The U.S. Should Be a Force for Peace in the World,” and was drafted by the Eisenhower Media Network.

  While condemning Russia’s invasion, the statement provides a more objective account of the crisis in Ukraine than the U.S. government or The New York Times has previously presented to the public, including the disastrous U.S. role in NATO expansion, the warnings ignored by successive U.S. administrations and the escalating tensions that ultimately led to war.

  

  The statement calls the war an “unmitigated disaster,” and urges President Joe Biden and Congress “to end the war speedily through diplomacy, especially given the dangers of military escalation that could spiral out of control.”

  This call for diplomacy by wise, experienced former insiders — U.S. diplomats, military officers and civilian officials — would have been a welcome intervention on any one of the past 442 days of this war. Yet their appeal now comes at an especially critical moment in the war.

  On May 10, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he is delaying Ukraine’s long-awaited “spring offensive” to avoid “unacceptable” losses to Ukrainian forces.

  Western policy has repeatedly put Zelenskyy in near-impossible positions, caught between the need to show signs of progress on the battlefield to justify further Western support and arms deliveries and, on the other hand, the shocking human cost of continued war represented by the fresh graveyards where tens of thousands of Ukrainians now lie buried.

  It is not clear how a delay in the planned Ukrainian counter-attack would prevent it leading to unacceptable Ukrainian losses when it finally occurs, unless the delay in fact leads to scaling back and calling off many of the operations that have been planned.

  Zelensky appears to be reaching a limit in terms of how many more of his people he is willing to sacrifice to satisfy Western demands for signs of military progress to hold together the Western alliance and maintain the flow of weapons and money to Ukraine.

  Boris Johnson’s Role 

  Zelensky’s predicament is certainly the fault of Russia’s invasion, but also of his April 2022 deal with the devil in the shape of then-U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

  Johnson promised Zelensky that the U.K. and the “collective West” were “in it for the long run” and would back him to recover all of Ukraine’s former territory, just as long as Ukraine stopped negotiating with Russia.

  Johnson was never in a position to fulfill that promise and, since he was forced to resign as prime minister, he has endorsed a Russian withdrawal only from the territory it invaded since February 2022, not a return to pre-2014 borders. Yet that compromise was exactly what he talked Zelensky out of agreeing to in April 2022, when most of the war’s dead were still alive and the framework of a peace agreement was on the table at diplomatic talks in Turkey.

  Zelensky has tried desperately to hold his Western backers to Johnson’s overblown promise. But short of direct U.S. and NATO military intervention, it seems that no quantity of Western weapons can decisively break the stalemate in what has degenerated into a brutal war of attrition, fought mainly by artillery and trench and urban warfare.

  A group of anti-war US veterans – including a dozen former military officers ranked as high as general – published an ad in the NY Times calling to halt arms shipments to Ukraine and end the war with peace talks

  They included this graphic of NATO military bases surrounded Russia https://t.co/SCeTYLseOB pic.twitter.com/m9Ntrnjrgs

  — Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) May 16, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  An American general bragged that the West has supplied Ukraine with 600 different weapons systems, but this itself creates problems. For example, the different 105 mm guns sent by the U.K., France, Germany and the U.S. all use different shells. And each time heavy losses force Ukraine to re-form survivors into new units, many of them have to be retrained on weapons and equipment they’ve never used before.

  Leaked Pentagon Document

  Despite U.S. deliveries of at least six types of anti-aircraft missiles — Stinger, NASAMS, Hawk, Rim-7, Avenger, and at least one Patriot missile battery — a leaked Pentagon document revealed that Ukraine’s Russian-built S-300 and Buk anti-aircraft systems still make up almost 90 percent of its main air defenses.

  NATO countries have searched their weapons stockpiles for all the missiles they can provide for those systems, but Ukraine has nearly exhausted those supplies, leaving its forces newly vulnerable to Russian air strikes just as it prepares to launch its new counter-attack.

  Since at least June 2022, Biden and other U.S. officials have acknowledged that the war must end in a diplomatic settlement, and have insisted that they are arming Ukraine to put it “in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.” Until now, they have claimed that each new weapons system they have sent and each Ukrainian counter-offensive have contributed to that goal and left Ukraine in a stronger position.

  But the leaked Pentagon documents and recent statements by U.S. and Ukrainian officials make it clear that Ukraine’s planned spring offensive, already delayed into summer, would lack the previous element of surprise and encounter stronger Russian defenses than the offensives that recovered some of its lost territory last fall.

  One leaked Pentagon document warned that “enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive,” concluding that it would probably make smaller territorial gains than the fall offensives did.

  

  How can a new offensive with mixed results and higher casualties put Ukraine in a stronger position at a currently non-existent negotiating table? If the offensive reveals that even huge quantities of Western military aid have failed to give Ukraine military superiority or reduce its casualties to a sustainable level, it could very well leave Ukraine in a weaker negotiating position, instead of a stronger one.

  Meanwhile, offers to mediate peace talks have been pouring in from countries all over the world, from the Vatican to China to Brazil. It has been six months since the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley suggested publicly, after Ukraine’s military gains last fall, that the moment had come to negotiate from a position of strength. “When there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved, seize it,” he said.

  It would be doubly or triply tragic if, on top of the diplomatic failures that led to the war in the first place and the U.S. and U.K. undermining peace negotiations in April 2022, the chance for diplomacy that Milley wanted to seize is lost in the forlorn hope of attaining an even stronger negotiating position that is not really achievable.

  If the U.S. persists in backing the plan for a Ukrainian offensive, instead of encouraging Zelenskyy to seize the moment for diplomacy, it will share considerable responsibility for the failure to seize the chance for peace, and for the appalling and ever-rising human costs of this war.

  The experts who signed The New York Times statement recalled that, in 1997, 50 senior U.S. foreign policy experts warned President Bill Clinton that expanding NATO was a “policy error of historic proportions” and that, unfortunately, Clinton chose to ignore the warning. Biden, who is now pursuing his own policy error of historic proportions by prolonging this war, would do well to take the advice of today’s policy experts by helping to forge a diplomatic settlement and making the United States a force for peace in the world.

  * * *

  TIMELINE

  1990 – U.S. assures Russia that NATO will not expand towards its border “…there would be no extension of…NATO one inch to the east,” says US Secretary of State James Baker.

  1996 – U.S. weapons manufacturers form the Committee to Expand NATO, spending over $51 million lobbying Congress.

  1997 – 50 foreign policy experts including former senators, retired military officers and diplomats sign an open letter stating NATO expansion to be “a policy error of historic proportions.”

  1999 – NATO admits Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic to NATO. U.S. and NATO bomb Russia’s ally, Serbia.

  2001 – U.S. unilaterally withdraws from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

  2004 – Seven more Eastern European nations join NATO. NATO troops are now directly on Russia’s border.

  2004 – Russia’s parliament passed a resolution denouncing NATO’s expansion. Putin responded by saying that Russia would “build our defense and security policy correspondingly.”

  2008 – NATO leaders announced plans to bring Ukraine and Georgia, also on Russia’s borders, into NATO.

  2009 – U.S. announced plans to put missile systems into Poland and Romania.

   

  2014 – Legally elected Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, fled violence to Moscow. Russia views ouster as a coup by U.S. and NATO nations.

  2016 – U.S. begins troop buildup in Europe.

  2019 – U.S. unilaterally withdraws from Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty.

  2020 – U.S. unilaterally withdraws from Open Skies Treaty.

  2021 – Russia submits negotiation proposals while sending more forces to the border with Ukraine. U.S. and NATO officials reject the Russian proposals immediately.

  Feb 24, 2022 – Russia invades Ukraine, starting the Russia-Ukraine War.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 23:30

• Hunter Biden Faces Call For Key Business Associates In The Arkansas Proceedings
  Hunter Biden Faces Call For Key Business Associates In The Arkansas Proceedings

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  There is a new and interesting development in Arkansas where attorneys for Lunden Alexis Roberts have prepared a list of witnesses for the upcoming proceedings involving Hunter Biden’s daughter, Navy.

  As previously discussed, Hunter Biden is seeking to reduce child support payments and has balked at Navy being able to use the Biden name. If successful, this could get a lot worse for Hunter in his alleged efforts to conceal his past income.

  On the list are business partners at the center of the influence peddling scandal.

  

  (Thank you to the reader who sent this possibly prophetic intersection picture).

  On the list are business partners who are connected to millions of dollars acquired from foreign interests in China, Ukraine and other countries. Also on the list is New York City art gallery owner Georges Bergès who continues to sell his art.  Bergès has reportedly pushed back on congressional efforts to reveal details on these proceeds and buyers even though former government ethicists have raised concerns over the sales.

  The costs of these proceedings and high-priced legal team would seem to undermine claims of financial distress by Biden. However, by putting his financial worth at issue, Hunter has opened up a new front in battling over the disclosure of his past dealings. Some of his past associates are reportedly cooperating with House investigators in tracking foreign payments.

  Even the Washington Post has belatedly published an editorial admitting that this is all a serious concern over influence peddling. In an editorial titled  “Millions flowed to Biden family members. Don’t pretend it doesn’t matter.”

  It was a bittersweet moment for many of us who have been writing about these dealings for years as newspapers like the Post downplayed the scandal or the authenticity of the laptop. Media outlets like National Public Radio (NPR)  declared that it “not want to waste our time on stories that are not really stories, and we don’t want to waste the listeners’ and readers’ time on stories that are just pure distractions.” These disclosures have been forced into the public despite the best efforts of the Post and other media.  Indeed, recently the Post’s Philip Bump derided the House investigation as a “fishing expedition . . .  it’s nearly all innuendo, a big corkboard with lots of pictures but little interconnecting string.” His “witchhunt” attack was then repeated by others at the Post.

  Despite these efforts, Hunter Biden appears to doing his level best to force the issue in Arkansas. It is not clear if the court will call any of these witnesses. However, since Hunter has put his finances at issue, some disclosures will need to be made.

  As for Navy, she is still uncertain if the court will allow her to use the Biden name despite her father’s efforts to the contrary. While it does not appear that Hunter (who lives in a California mansion) is financially broke, his actions (and those of the President and First Lady) toward this little girl show a moral deficit and delinquency that is abundantly obvious.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 23:00

• NYC Has A Shoplifting Problem… And Kiosks Aren't Going To Stop It!
  NYC Has A Shoplifting Problem… And Kiosks Aren’t Going To Stop It!

  Authored by Andrea Widburg via AmericanThinker.com,

  Like all Democrat-run cities that turned against police in 2020, New York City has a crime problem, including an explosive uptick in shoplifting. Fortunately for New York City store owners, Mayor Eric Adams has a plan. The problem is that, as with all lefty plans, it will cost money and almost certainly be completely useless.

  Ever since the George Floyd riots caused leftist-managed cities to defund their police, all sorts of crimes have increased. In New York City, the crime that’s really taken off is shoplifting.

  In the first eight months of 2021, shoplifting in New York increased by 30% over rates in 2020. Of course, one could argue that slowly ending the lockdown was what made the difference. However, that wouldn’t explain what happened in 2022. In that year, shoplifting went up by another 45% over rates in 2021, with an even better marker being the fact that it was 275% higher than a decade or so earlier.

  Shoplifting may be a non-violent crime, but it has a disastrous effect on people in the community because stores, including big box stores, respond to theft in two different ways: First, they raise their prices; then when that proves ineffective, they pick up their marbles and go home by shutting down stores. In San Francisco, for example, Walgreens closed five stores due to shoplifting. Target, meanwhile, predicts that retail crime will cost it as much as $1.3 billion:

  Crime-battered retail giant Target said it expects to suffer as much as a $1.3 billion hit to its bottom line because of “theft and organized crime,” according to the company’s first-quarter earnings report released Wednesday.

  The Minneapolis-based chain said its profit will be squeezed by “$500 million more than what we saw last year” – when the company lost as much as $800 million from “inventory shrink.”

  Considering that Target voiced its full-throated support for BLM and dug deep in its pocket to support the communist organization, one can’t help but notice an “actions have consequences” scenario at work. That’s a shame because Target used to be a very nice place. Now, though, aside from shoplifting, lots of people (me included) are fed up with its Pride shenanigans, which it’s now aimed at children. But I digress…

  New York mayor Eric Adams seems to have been feeling the heat from merchants in New York City, so his office has announced a “crackdown on shoplifting plan.”

  As always, though, when the government steps in to help, the devil is in the details:

  Clown world intensifies. 🤡🌎

  NYC plan to “crackdown” on shoplifting. 🤨 pic.twitter.com/4MHcnBgucn

  — Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) May 20, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  And yes, that screen shot is real, not a Photoshop. According to Fox 5’s full report,

  The new crackdown includes giving first-time offenders intervention programs instead of prosecution, de-escalation training for retail employees, establishing neighborhood retail watch groups to share information about a theft in real-time with one another and the police, and installing kiosks in stores to connect would-be thieves with social service programs.

  One of the things that everyone has noticed about shoplifters is that they’re not starved, Dickensian-style waifs stealing a loaf of bread to survive. Instead, they’re organized gangs that go in and steal merchandise that has a good retail value on the street:

  San Francisco pic.twitter.com/klaiesGE2C

  — Clown World ™ 🤡 (@ClownWorld_) May 16, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Or if they’re eating what they steal, it’s party time, not starvation time:

  Why is Walmart struggling in urban areas?

  pic.twitter.com/jDQlStgBWp

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) May 19, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  What’s happening is organized crime:

  Last Walmart in North Portland Closing Down … they cannot overcome the losses from shoplifting.

  The people of Portland voted for this so retail stores are exiting. 🤡 🌎

  🔊 pic.twitter.com/EyE6jrRTFJ

  — Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) May 19, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In other words, little police kiosks promising social services (which will augment all the posters about social services in the crime-ridden NY subway) are not going to change things. Nor will friendly little “intervention programs” affect what is hardcore criminal activity. The NYC plan is taking a flyswatter to an out-of-control wild boar.

  I would say that the people of NYC deserve better but, actually, they don’t. This is what they voted for. It’s not just that Adams garnered 80.4% of the vote in Manhattan, 76% in the Bronx, 70.8% in Brooklyn, and 59.8% in Queens, with only Staten Island showing the good sense to vote for Curtis Sliwa (66.4% of the votes). It’s also that a total of only 1,125,000 turned out to vote, out of a city with a population that’s close to 9,000,000.

  The only ones I feel for are the conservatives (some of whom I count among my good friends) who took the time and made the effort to vote. As to those people, I’ve heard that Florida’s a nice place, as are most of the southern states.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 22:30

• Where International Travelers Spend The Most
  Where International Travelers Spend The Most

  When it comes to travel, some tourists spare no expense. And some cities are well suited to attract them.

  From the luxurious desert city of Dubai to the city of light and love, Paris, many international travelers today are looking to tick the crème de la crème of destinations off their bucket lists. In some cases, they’re seeking out the opulent experiences they missed out on when the pandemic brought the world to a halt.

  In this graphic, Visual Capitalist’s Freny Fernandez and Bhabna Banerjee use the latest research by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) to highlight the top 10 cities where international travelers spent the most in 2022.

  

  Cities of Opulence

  Last year, Dubai took top spot, followed by nearby Doha, Qatar.

  Rank	City	Country / Region	Income from International Tourists (2022)
  #1	Dubai	🇦🇪 UAE	$29.42B
  #2	Doha	🇶🇦 Qatar	$16.79B
  #3	London	🇬🇧 UK	$16.07B
  #4	Macau	🇲🇴 Macau SAR	$15.58B
  #5	Amsterdam	🇳🇱 Netherlands	$13.59B
  #6	Istanbul	🇹🇷 Türkiye	$13.13B
  #7	Barcelona	🇪🇸 Spain	$12.73B
  #8	New York	🇺🇸 U.S.	$12.45B
  #9	Singapore	🇸🇬 Singapore	$10.97B
  #10	Paris	🇫🇷 France	$9.76B

  Singapore and Macau represented East Asia, and New York was the sole city from the Americas on the list.

  It’s worth noting that this list differs somewhat from overall tourism spending, which would include domestic travel spending as well. Large countries like the United States and China fare better in that ranking.

  City Spotlight: Destinations Favored by Big Spenders

  When you think of luxury travel, you think of five-star hotels, Michelin-star restaurants, luxury retail outlets, and many other premium experiences. And these cities offered their international travelers just that.

  #1. Dubai

  From the Burj Khalifa, currently the world’s tallest building, to the desert excursions and yacht cruises, Dubai offers extravagant experiences for international visitors. The city’s reputation for tax-free, high-end shopping and its commitment to providing a luxurious experience has made it a top travel destination for luxury shoppers from around the world.

  Location is another factor in the city’s success. Dubai sits at the natural crossroads between Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, and is home to one of the world’s busiest, well-connected airports.

  International travelers spent close to $30 billion in the city in 2022.

  #3. London

  London has long been a preferred location for the ultra-wealthy, and as a result, the city has an abundance of amenities for well-heeled travelers. For one, London is home to more five star hotels than any other city. As well, London offers ultra-wealthy travelers access to a wide range of high-end designer retailers, as well as world-famous museums, galleries, and landmarks.

  Of course, the UK’s largest city also sees a high overall volume of tourists overall, which adds to the $16 billion global visitors spent in the city in 2022.

  #4. Macau

  Known as the Las Vegas of Asia, Macau’s gambling hub has been a magnet for international tourists for years. However, as the city began re-imagining its tourism strategies post-pandemic, it has grown stronger as an international tourist destination.

  Outside tourists brought in $15.6 billion in 2022, and that number is only expected to multiply further over the next decade. This growth is being fueled by China and Hong Kong, which account for the lion’s share of visits.

  Note: Although Macau is now a part of China, it remains a Special Administrative Region under the “One Country, Two Systems” principle.

  Transforming Travel Trends

  The global travel industry continues to recover from the pandemic, which is good news for the many nations that economically rely on tourism.

  As travel restrictions were lifted, many tourists flocked to remote destinations that were less traveled. However, this WTTC research is proof that the world’s iconic cities are making their way back onto tourist itineraries once again.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 22:00

• Abandon The Swamp
  Abandon The Swamp

  Authored by Roger Kimball via American Greatness,

  Suppose a document drops in the wilderness and no one is around to hear it. Does it make a sound?

  I submit that John Durham just tested this Bishop Berkeleyesque query. The special counsel spent four years beavering away in the forests of the deep state and what did he produce?

  Three hundred pages telling us what, for the most part, we already knew and with the result that exactly nothing, apart from a little hand wringing, will happen. 

  We already knew that James Comey, Robert Mueller, Andrew McCabe, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, Bruce Ohr, Nellie Ohr, John Brennan, Susan Rice, Michael Sussmann, Kevin Clinesmith, and all the other characters in and around the Russia Collusion Delusion had fabricated the story of Trump’s supposed connection with Russia out of whole cloth. 

  We already knew that they had gone out of their way to protect Hillary Clinton. 

  We knew that there was no predicate for obtaining a FISA warrant against Carter Page (one of many thousands of such warrants), thus opening a back door into the Trump campaign. 

  We knew that the surveillance apparatus of the regime had been weaponized to prevent Donald Trump from being elected and then, when he surprised everyone by winning anyway, to taint his administration and render him radioactive.  

  What should we make of Durham’s non-revelatory revelations? I think that, wittingly or not, they were just a big exercise in track-covering, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Well, nothing beyond the sound and fury, anyway.

  

  Still, Durham’s bulletin is useful as a marker of the futility in which we labor. André Gide touched on this point when he reminded us that “Toutes choses sont dites déjà, mais comme personne n’écoute, il faut toujours recommencer.” Over the past five or six years, virtually everything that Durham said in his report had already been said. But because no one was listening, it is necessary to start again and say it once more. 

  In this spirit, I am going to say again some things I have said elsewhere, beginning with what has become my ritual invocation of British Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s observation that a week is a long time in politics. That’s time enough, as T. S. Eliot said in another context, “for a hundred indecisions, And for a hundred visions and revisions, Before the taking of a toast and tea.”

  Until the night of March 5, 2023, I suspected that “The Donald Trump Show,” which has been such blockbuster entertainment, might have entered its final season. That’s still possible, of course. The people clamoring for its cancellation are many and vociferous. Moreover, they have another concession with which they propose to entertain us: “The Ron DeSantis Deliverance.” Someday, I’d like to see that show myself.

  I wonder, though, about the most profitable time to air it. 2024? Perhaps. But I think the jury is still out on that. We’ll know more after DeSantis finally announces what he has already made clear, namely that he, too, is running for the presidency in 2024. He will, if the past is any guide, get a bump in the polls. But at the moment, anyway, I am inclined to think that 2024 belongs to the Donald. Why? There are many reasons.

  One vivid reason was vouchsafed us during the final hours of the 2023 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) program in National Harbor, Maryland, in March. It was then that Trump addressed the crowd. C-SPAN described the speech as “remarks.” To me, the word “remarks” suggests something brief and casual. Trump’s performance was long and, for Trump, well-prepared.

  As usual with the former president, the talk was peppered with digressions and offhand observations. But he was clearly following a script. Chris Christie, formerly an ally, sighed that the room was only half full (was it?) and that Trump was “not what he used to be.” Opinions about that vary. I thought the talk bristled with rhetorical electricity. And in terms of substance, it was one of the most forthright and powerful political speeches I’ve heard. 

  Earlier that day, Trump had won the CPAC straw poll with 62 percent of the vote. DeSantis was the runner-up with 20 percent. As of May 19, with a half a dozen Republican candidates in the field, Trump leads by 42 points. Is that significant? I don’t know. It’s early days. DeSantis hasn’t even officially declared yet, A week is a long time, etc., etc.

  But right now, as of May 20, I would say this about the 2024 race on the Republican side: There are two plausible candidates: Trump and DeSantis.

  DeSantis has the blessing of the donor class and Conservatism, Inc. He’s a great governor and would probably make an effective president.

  Trump has the unwavering support of the MAGA millions and most allotropes of the dissident Right. There’s plenty of exasperation about Trump, not least among those who worked with him in his first term. He’s a difficult, demanding, and mercurial person. But his CPAC speech (and, more recently, his performance at a CNN “townhall” with Kaitlan Collins) demonstrated why he’s beloved by his supporters and feared and hated by his opponents.

  Trump said many bold and controversial things in the course of his speech.

  I’ll concentrate on two themes.

  The first—it was the thing that really set heads spinning—revolved around the word “retribution.” 

  “In 2016,” he said, “I declared, I am your voice. Today, I add, I am your warrior, I am your justice, and for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution.” 

  And just in case you missed that last bit, he repeated it. “I am your retribution.”

  The pundits love-hated that, just as they were appalled by this promise: “I will totally obliterate the deep state.” I think he meant it, too. “I will fire the unelected bureaucrats and shadow forces who have weaponized our justice system. . . . I will put the people back in charge of this country again.”

  ’Tis a consummation devoutly to be wished.

  Could he actually do it? That’s a very good question. His track record during his first term was impressive but not dispositive, partly because he was surrounded by the swamp and its denizens. Really, he didn’t know any better. He came to office as an outsider, a naïf. He actually thought that Jim Mattis and Rex Tillerson were on his side. Imagine that. 

  He has been disabused of those sentiments, though who exactly he can rely on as allies remains an open question. Personnel will once again be a critical problem for Trump were he to reoccupy 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

  Here’s a bit of unsolicited advice that I have for the former president should he be elected again: Stay out of Washington as much as you can. Stop the newspapers. Have your mail forwarded.

  Washington really is a swamp and it will consume you. And here are a few particular bits of advice: 

  1) Have the inauguration in Mar-a-Lago.

  2) Govern from Florida as much as you can. 

  3) If you decide to indulge in the theater of the State of the Union Address as it has evolved, deliver it from, say, Kansas. 

  4) Disband the FBI. We should never have allowed a national police force to come into being. 

  Move the bits of the government you can’t actually destroy to other parts of the country.

  Do these things instantly—the day you take office. The deep state will howl. The bureaucrats will oppose you. The lawyers will sue you. Do it anyway. Act first, deal with the consequences later. 

  Conduct metaphorical dawn-raids on their people and institutions just as they weaponized the Justice Department against you and your supporters. That would not only be the retribution you seek, it would also be reciprocity. Speed and thoroughness will be of the essence. If you hesitate, if you are half-hearted, you will be lost.

  These are points I have made before. The focus should be on eclipsing Washington, D.C. as the seat of government. It has long been obvious to candid observers that there is something deeply dysfunctional about that overwhelmingly Democratic, welfare-addicted city. It is a partisan sinkhole. Jefferson wanted the capital moved from New York to Washington in part to bring it closer to the South, but also to place it somewhere that was officially neutral. There is nothing neutral about Washington today. The city has some impressive architecture and urban vistas. They should be preserved and staffed as tourist attractions. But the reins of power should be relocated.

  The more I think about our situation, the more I believe the only hope for the republic is to downgrade the place of Washington in our public life. The business of Washington is to make government bigger—forever. That is not what the people, who pay for it, want. Legitimacy is draining out of our governing institutions at an alarming rate. Stanching that debilitating flow requires that we redirect our attention away from the greedy puppet show in Washington to the true source of legitimacy, which is with the people.

  Trump is one of the few people with the temerity to attempt such a thing. Perhaps he can appease some of his critics by proposing we rename Washington to George Floyd City. I would be OK with that. In any event, the actual government of the country should be moved to some neutral ground, out of the overwhelmingly corrupt cesspool that is Washington.

  The other bit of Trump’s CPAC speech that I want to mention concerns NATO. Trump did not, as some commenters asserted, “muse about Russia blowing up the NATO headquarters.” Rather, he talked about the folly of NATO spending billions to construct a huge headquarters for itself. Would they not have been better advised to construct a hardened bunker? After all, Trump pointed out, Russia could destroy the shiny new headquarters with a single missile.

  Bill Kristol, seizing on the idea that Trump was musing about blowing up NATO headquarters, took to Twitter to make “the most obvious point: This man cannot be our next president.” Kristol was also aghast at Trump’s call for an “all-European NATO, with the United States as an ally but not a member.” “One of the problems with the involvement of the United States in NATO,” he said, “is that it dilutes the nationalist impulse.” Can you believe that? He actually praised “the nationalist impulse.” How Hitlerian can you get?

  Unfortunately for Bill Kristol, though, those last observations come not from Trump (though he would probably agree with them) but from someone else named Kristol: Irving Kristol, Bill’s father, who in 1983 wrote an essay called “What’s Wrong With NATO?” After the Soviet Union fell, Irving Kristol went on to express doubts about the future role for NATO in European politics altogether.

  If that seems surprising, it’s only because you have failed to appreciate just how long a week in politics can be.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 21:30

• Joe Biden, Habitual Racialist Demagogue: VDH
  Joe Biden, Habitual Racialist Demagogue: VDH

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via RealClear Politics,

  The most recent liberal ABC News/Washington Post poll showed President Joe Biden’s approval rating at 36 percent – the lowest in history for a president at this point in his first term.

  

  Biden’s low popularity is no mystery.

  He inherited energy independence, affordable gas prices, historically low interest rates, low inflation, calm overseas, a low crime rate, and a largely closed border with legal-only immigration.

  And then Biden destroyed that inheritance.

  He has begged illiberal foreign governments to pump oil he refuses to drill domestically for.

  He spiked inflation at the highest rate in over 40 years.

  Home interest rates have skyrocketed from less than 3% to 7%.

  He nearly doubled the price of gasoline.

  His hare-brained retreat from Afghanistan marked the greatest humiliation of the American military in the last half-century.

  Kabul is now selling billions of dollars’ worth of abandoned American equipment to terrorists and anti-American regimes.

  After that fiasco, Biden foolhardily played down a possible “minor” Russia invasion of Ukraine. He implored Russia to exempt some American institutions from its cyber-attack target list.

  No wonder an empowered Russian President Vladimir Putin went into Ukraine.

  Biden’s family is corrupt from top to bottom.

  Its influence peddling schemes increasingly are targets of congressional investigations. Biden himself is explicitly mentioned by his son Hunter as the recipient of a 10% commission on monies the family syndicate leveraged from foreign interests.

  Biden promised “unity.” Instead, he habitually smears half the country as “semi-fascists” and “ultra-MAGA” extremists.

  Biden is cognitively challenged and often incoherent. And he is now losing support in the polls from African Americans, once his most loyal constituency.

  In response, Biden does what he has always done for some 40 years: mouth wild racist demagoguery.

  This graduation season, Biden deliberately chose Howard University to scare its Black graduates into believing the greatest threat to their aspirations is “white supremacy” – but that he, Biden, has been their protector in fighting it.

  Note the existential threats Biden deliberately omits.

  Tens of thousands of illegal immigrants are flooding over a border Biden deliberately destroyed. Millions of incoming poor will vie for limited federal and state support with Americans who are in need.

  Since Biden was elected, there have been nearly 7 million illegal entries.

  Some 100,000 Americans now die each year from Mexican-produced fentanyl and other opioids shipped across a wide-open border.

  Biden did not mention that nearly 10,000 African Americans are murdered each year, over 90% of them killed by other African Americans.

  Biden first should heal his own racism before he fabricates it in others.

  He fueled his early Senate career with homages to southern Democratic segregationists such as Senator James O. Eastland, D-Miss. Biden even bragged that Eastland “never called me ‘boy.'” Biden gave eulogies for former Dixiecrat Sen. Strom Thurmond and former Klansman Sen. Robert Byrd.

  Of school busing, a younger Senator Biden thundered, “My children are going to grow up in a jungle, the jungle being a racial jungle.”

  Biden in 2008 patronized former President Barack Obama in racist terms as “the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy.”

  In 2012, Biden condescended to a group of accomplished Black professionals that the Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, would “put y’all back in chains.”

  As a presidential candidate in 2020, he dismissed two Black journalists, respectively with the putdowns “you ain’t Black” and “junkie.”

  His fabricated “Corn Pop” he-man autobiographical tales are utterly racist.

  As president he has referred to two prominent people of color as “boy.” He still uses the term “Negro” to refer to Blacks.

  Biden never cites data to support his wild accusations that white supremacy poses the nation’s greatest threat.

  The 2020 riots, the lengthiest in our history, left up to 40 people dead, destroyed $2 billion in property, led to 14,000 arrests, spanned 120 days of mass looting, and arson, and saw mobs torching police precincts, federal courthouses, and an historic church.

  That violence was engineered by radicals in Antifa and Black Lives Matter.

  In the January 6 Capitol protests, the only person confirmed to have been killed at that event was an unarmed military veteran and Trump supporter, Ashli Babbitt. She was lethally shot by a Capitol police officer for the misdemeanor of attempting to enter through a broken window.

  If “white supremacy” is our “greatest” terrorist threat, surely crime statistics would reveal such an existential peril.

  Yet federal hate- and interracial-crime data show that so-called whites are considerably unrepresented demographically in such racially motivated violence.

  Far from galvanizing the public, Biden’s monotonous racial demagoguery is turning it off.

  The military suffers a vast drop in enlistments that began once Biden’s Pentagon brass, without evidence, likewise began demagoguing about supposed “white rage” in the ranks.

  Only 37% of independents in a recent poll now support Biden. Some 70% of the public in other polls opposes a second Biden run.

  So on spec, a panicked Biden now turns to what he has done for decades – inflammatory racial demagoguery.

  Victor Davis Hanson is the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and the author, most recently, of The Case for Trump. You can reach him by e-mailing author@victorhanson.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 21:00

• "Not Our Beliefs" – Bud Light Distributor Sends Out Public Plea to Bring Back Customers
  “Not Our Beliefs” – Bud Light Distributor Sends Out Public Plea to Bring Back Customers

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  A Bud Light distributor in Alabama issued a public plea to bring back customers who boycotted the brand after it produced a can with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney’s face.

  Steve Tatum, with the Montgomery-based Bama Budweiser distributor, deployed a radio advertisement for several area stations, pleading with customers to purchase Bud Light again.

  In April and during the first week of May, sales of Bud Light were down significantly, while sales of other Anheuser-Busch products also dropped amid the Mulvaney backlash.

  “We too at Bama Budweiser are upset about it and have made our feelings known to the top leadership at Anheuser-Busch,” Tatum said in the ad, according to multiple news reports.

  “The voice of the consumer has been heard, and Anheuser-Busch has taken action.”

  

  ‘#BudLightPartner’

  Like Anheuser-Busch’s leadership, Tatum also tried to distance Bud Light from Mulvaney, a biological male who had posted the custom-made Bud Light can and used a hashtag “#BudLightPartner” in early April, drawing significant ire from consumers and conservative celebrities. Several popular country singers, including Travis Tritt and John Rich, said they wouldn’t serve the beer, while Kid Rock posted a video of him shooting up cases of Bud Light.

  “We at Bama Budweiser, an independent wholesaler, employ around 100 people who live here, work here, and our children go to school here,” Tatum said in the ad.

  “We do not, and as I said before, did not support this issue involving Dylan Mulvaney. There was one single can made. It was not for sale and wasn’t properly approved. As a result, the Bud Light brand has new leadership.”

  Tatum added:

  “Dylan Mulvaney is not under contract with Bud Light. The videos you may have seen are Mulvaney’s own social media posts that went viral and many web-based news outlets have distorted the story. You deserve to know the truth, and life is too short to let a couple of individuals decide what you can eat or drink or spend your hard-earned money on. And remember, making friends is our business, not enemies.”

  Drop in Sales

  Latest industry data shows that Bud Light’s sales dropped in the first week of May, falling 23.6 percent in the week ending May 6, reported Beer Business Daily using Nielsen IQ data. In the final week of April, sales for the beer dropped 23.3 percent, the data show.

  “Trends aren’t getting much worse, but certainly not getting any better either,” Beer Business Daily wrote in a commentary on the figures.

  Tatum told AL.com that he’s received positive feedback for his ad campaign. However, he said that there has been no response from Anheuser-Busch or Bud Light corporate officials.

  “I’m just trying to look after Bama Budweiser,” he said. “I’ve worked too hard to give it all away.”

  The distributor added to Newsweek that “I felt like we had to get a message out there,” adding: “We are tied to a corporation, but that’s not necessarily our beliefs in our market here in Alabama.”

  Sales volumes for Anheuser-Busch products also dropped 9.7 percent for the first week in May, up from the 11.4 percent decline in late April, according to industry data. Anheuser-Busch, which has headquarters in the Netherlands, also makes Budweiser, Michelob, Stella Artois, and Beck’s, among other beers.

  ‘Misinformation and Confusion’

  Anheuser-Busch CEO Michel Doukeris told the Financial Times in a recent interview that his company believes the Bud Light boycott was triggered by “misinformation and confusion” circulating on social media and sought to distance his firm from Mulvaney. He said that Mulvaney wasn’t part of an official marketing campaign and that “one can” was produced with Mulvaney’s face.

  “It was one post. It was not an advertisement,” Doukeris told the outlet.

  He alleged viral videos of billboards with images of the Bud Light can with Mulvaney’s face on it inserted “electronically,” although he did not address why Mulvaney wrote the hashtag on social media suggesting a partnership.

  Initially, Anheuser-Busch USA CEO Brendan Whitworth released a statement that did not address the boycott or the Mulvaney partnership.

  The company “never intended to be part of a discussion that divides people,” he said in a statement, which was criticized by conservatives.

  In the meantime, Anheuser-Busch InBev had its stock downgraded recently by an HSBC analyst who said the firm is now dealing with a “Bud Light crisis” of sorts. There are “deeper problems” than Anheuser-Busch would like to admit publicly after its marketing engagement with the transgender influencer became a hot topic, the analyst said.

  ‘The Tide Has Turned’

  While some analysts and researchers say that boycotts of large corporations rarely work, a former Anheuser-Busch, Anson Frericks, said last week that the Bud Light one is actually working.

  “Now, the tide has turned. A poll conducted earlier this year shows that 68 percent of Americans think that companies that speak out on social issues do it as a marketing ploy,” he wrote.

  “And a study out earlier this month shows that Americans are much more likely to distrust institutions they view as politicized—even when they take political positions that align with their views. In today’s heated political environment, the surest course for companies—particularly those in high-visibility, competitive markets—is to focus on their brand and stay out of the debates.”

  The Epoch Times has contacted Anheuser-Busch multiple times for comment about the sales and controversy.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 20:30

• "Isolated Event" Again? All Voters Of New York County Falsely Identified As Democrats In Voter IDs
  “Isolated Event” Again? All Voters Of New York County Falsely Identified As Democrats In Voter IDs

  Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,

  All voters of Nassau County, New York, were identified as Democrats on their voter ID cards irrespective of political affiliation due to a botch-up by a printing company, triggering accusations about “sabotaging elections” ahead of the upcoming primaries.

  The primaries are scheduled for June. Voters of the county, amounting to nearly a million, began to receive their voter ID cards on Tuesday, with voters supporting Republicans, Independents, or another political party surprised to see themselves identified as Democrats in the cards, according to NBC. “We’re already starting to get phone calls from people, saying ‘I’m a registered Republican, I’m a registered Conservative—how come I’m being identified as a Democrat? Who changed my registration?’ And they’re quite upset about it,” said Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.

  “There’s a lot of confusion, there’s a lot of people emotionally upset about this,” he added. Blakeman, a Republican, is pinning the blame on Rochester-based Phoenix Graphics, the printing company hired by Nassau County’s Board of Elections to print the voter ID cards.

  

  The printing company called it an “isolated event” that was the result of a human error. “We apologize for our mistake, especially to Nassau County officials, who bear no responsibility for this problem.”

  However, this is not the first time that Phoenix Graphics has committed such a mistake. In 2020, Phoenix messed up absentee ballots for 99,000 voters in Brooklyn. The printing firm had erroneously sent mailings to voters containing return envelopes having the names and addresses of other people.

  The campaign for Kari Lake (R-Ariz.), who is running for the post of Arizona Governor, slammed the incident.

  “A ‘printing error’ in Nassau County, N.Y. led to every voter in that county being listed as a Democrat. There’s that word again. ‘Printer error.’ This is just their blanket excuse for sabotaging elections and hoping nobody calls them on it,” the campaign said in a May 21 tweet.

  Since New York is a closed primary state, voters registered as belonging to a party are not allowed to vote for any other party. As such, if a GOP supporter is identified as Democrat in the voter registration system, the individual would be barred from casting votes for the Republican primary.

  Trust in Elections

  Out of the 972,000 voters in the county, Democrats account for around 40 percent. At a press conference, Blakeman ruled out partisanship as a cause for the mishap and said that the county is investigating the matter.

  “I don’t think the Democratic Party is engaged in a conspiracy to create havoc in their own primaries. I don’t think the Democratic Party wants a bunch of Republicans showing up to vote in their primaries,” said Blakeman, according to the New York Post.

  However, some voters are now questioning the election process due to the typo error. “I have no faith in this country today, as far as what the politics are,” said George Klein, a voter from Nassau. “I’m going to vote Republican primary day, and Democrat on that is not going to affect it,” he said referring to the erroneous ID card he received.

  During the 2022 midterms, only 56 percent of Republicans thought the elections will be administered “very” or “somewhat” well, according to Pew Research.

  Accurate Voter ID Cards

  According to Phoenix Graphics, they are correcting the error and will send out new and accurate voter ID cards soon without any additional cost to taxpayers.

  Democratic County Election Commissioner Jim Scheuerman told the New York Post that Phoenix will be paying around $300,000 required to resend the correct registration cards to the county’s voters.

  Phoenix was contracted more than ten years ago via a sealed-bid process. Officials with Nassau County’s Board of Elections are reportedly not ruling out considering other vendors to ensure that the recent mistake doesn’t occur again, according to Fox.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 19:30

• Crypto Calm Before The Smile
  Crypto Calm Before The Smile

  By Marcel Kasumovich and Kartikey Sinha of One River Asset Management

  1. Adapt or die. It’s clever, even if overused. The finite nature of life is what makes it so precious. Embracing adaptation over comfort, the joy of the struggle. Hundreds of brainy quotes are at your fingertips to give credibility to the mantra. Maya Angelou is my mom’s personal favorite: “If you don’t like something, change it. If you can’t change it, change your attitude.” There is no try in adaptation – you either do or you don’t. Crypto asset markets choose “do.”

  2. Adaption is evident in natural cycles, naturally. Biodiverse ecosystems strengthen the resilience of cycles. Of course, the same is true of economic systems and financial markets. But our instincts are to resist. Intervening to stop forest fires that are disruptive to homes that probably shouldn’t be there. Intervening to guard against losses of banks that probably shouldn’t exist. Intervention leans against natural cycles, lessens diversity, and weakens resilience.

  3. Intervention requires great humility. We don’t know what we don’t know. Yet, intervention is often executed with a force of certainty. If banks were not bailed out, we were certain to enter a Great Depression. The unintended consequence of intervention must be less than the social strains of soup kitchens in Central Park. Intervention centralizes debt to government balance sheets, leaving rich countries with unsustainable obligations. It brings generational fragility.

  4. The crypto asset ecosystem stands in sharp contrast. It demands adaptive resilience. Take US dollar stablecoin. Total assets are roughly $130 billion today, on par with October 2021. Dollars chose to stay in the digital ecosystem despite a sharp rise in US interest rates, a crash in crypto asset markets, and the annihilation of poorly designed stablecoin. Resilience. Then, strains in the US banking system led to a rapid shift of stablecoin to USDT and away from USDC, raising Tether’s share to 46% of the Ethereum stablecoin supply. Adaptation.

  5. Why has US dollar stablecoin been so durable? Its velocity demonstrates it is well designed and useful. A total of $1,952 billion stablecoin transactions settled on the Ethereum blockchain in the first quarter. Ethereum US dollar stablecoin assets averaged $95 billion over the same period. So, the entire stock of stablecoin turned over 20 times in the quarter, or roughly once every 4-5 days. And that doesn’t include off-chain transactions. It makes USD stablecoin the most efficient collateral in the global financial system. Bank runs are for banks.

  6. Now, resilience also changes the nature of cycles. We know that cycles of the weather are simply defined – hot in the summer, cold in the winter. But the amplitudes and timing are highly nonlinear. No two cycles are the same. Crypto asset prices and activity have surged this year. Bitcoin was up more than 80% at its peak this year, transaction volumes have leapt to record levels, and bitcoin mining fees have garnered the third-highest share of revenue in its history. Historically, these would be signs of excess.

  7. But derivative markets are clearly not flashing red. On the contrary, the signals are remarkably bland. Bitcoin’s three-month volatility expectation is near historic lows at 47%, the skew in option markets is neutral, and the cost of futures leverage is near-zero versus more than 10% annualized during past periods of rapid price gains. Surprised? It’s the benefit of no intervention and increased resilience. Last cycle’s crypto crash is bringing far more discipline to the current cycle.

  8. It got us thinking – the “Royal us” in this case, including Kartikey, a member of our Digital Labs. How does bitcoin’s price and volatility adjust to the demand for leverage?

  We take funding rates implied by the bitcoin perpetual futures from 2018-2022, partition them into percentile ranges, and then evaluate bitcoin’s volatility. Figure 1 shows a happy smile relationship, a dream for risk managing a portfolio.

  

  There’s information content on both extremes – risk rises when the cost of leverage is extremely low and extremely high, in the boom and bust respectively.

  9 . The same smile emerges with the absolute move in bitcoin price returns across different stages of the leverage cycle from 2018 to 2022 (Figure 2). But the return profile is more of a jump in the extremes.

  

  When bitcoin funding rates are in the 0-10 percentile range, the average daily bitcoin return is (1.02%), roughly seven-times the sample average. On the other extreme in the 90-100 percentile range, bitcoin’s average daily return is 2.11%. Outside of those extremes are long phases of calm, like the current one.

  10. The resilience of digital asset markets ensures the previous cycle won’t be repeated. A surge in economic transactions can occur without speculative excess – we’ve already seen it this year. This is encouraging for developers as price signals are more valuable when not polluted by excess speculation. A virtuous cycle emerges. But we can’t extrapolate the calm. Extremes can be identified by funding rates and volatility markets – analytics when integrated to systematic strategies will leave any crypto asset manager smiling, just like bitcoin’s volatility curve.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 19:00

• Despite Denials, Experts Say Fentanyl-Laced Marijuana Is A Growing Problem
  Despite Denials, Experts Say Fentanyl-Laced Marijuana Is A Growing Problem

  Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Twenty-one states, plus the District of Columbia, have legalized recreational marijuana for adults as of April 2023. And while marijuana is still illegal at the federal level, 88 percent of adults think it should be legalized for medical and recreational use, according to an October 2022 Pew Research Center survey—a significant increase from 1999’s 31 percent.

  

  Additionally, 55 million Americans currently use marijuana, and 45 percent of the population has tried it at least once, according to the National Center for Drug Abuse Statistics.

  But as attitudes and state laws change regarding marijuana—and its use increases—reports of marijuana laced with substances like the synthetic opioid fentanyl, are also increasing.

  “One of the trends that we saw secondary to the pandemic was individuals stopped reporting opioid use as their primary drug of choice, and it seems to be replaced with marijuana and methamphetamine,” Teresa Russell, the director of criminal justice outreach in Dayton, Ohio, told The Epoch Times. Russell works between the county jail and community health and treatment facilities.

  Russell explained that when someone is booked into the jail and needs to detox, they’re asked about drugs they’ve taken and must take a urine drug screen. Russell said it’s becoming increasingly common for someone to say they’ve only used marijuana but then pop positive for fentanyl.

  

  “They genuinely don’t know that [opioids are] in there,” Russell said. “They have no idea what’s actually being put inside their substances. That’s an ongoing trend of what we’re seeing.”

  When explicitly asked if marijuana is being laced with fentanyl and showing up on drug screens, Russell confirmed that’s what she’s seeing.

  “We hear that not just from my team here in the jail from our intake screens, but we’re hearing that from our outreach partners.”

  NORML, a nonprofit public-interest advocacy group pushing for the legalization of marijuana, is quick to downplay the issue of fentanyl-laced marijuana.

  “Rarely a week goes by without police or other public officials warning about so-called ‘fentanyl-laced’ weed. Upon closer inspection, however, there’s little if any truth behind these sensational claims,” NORML says on its site.

  “It’s controversial,” Russell said of fentanyl-laced marijuana, “But I have urine drug screens that show it.”

  Russell isn’t the only one sounding the alarm on what she believes is a growing issue.

  Cases

  On Feb. 10, two students at North Mac High School in Illinois, were found to be in possession and under the influence of marijuana, and two field tests administered by the Virden Police Department found that the marijuana was positive for fentanyl.

  Kyle Hacke, the superintendent of North Mac, said in a statement, “We are fairly certain our students did not know they were ingesting fentanyl. Fentanyl-laced drugs … continue to show up in small communities like ours nationwide. We implore you to speak with your children and take necessary steps to combat this danger.”

  On Nov. 17, 2022, police in Leeds, Alabama, charged Jose Ingnacio Medina-Estrada with murder after he allegedly sold marijuana that was laced with fentanyl. The buyer—who believed he was only purchasing marijuana according to LPD Chief Paul Irwin—immediately died as a result.

  “This needs to serve as a notice to all individuals who are purchasing drugs. Drugs can take your life immediately or will control you and eventually destroy your life and everything you care about,” Irwin said.

  

  On Oct. 20, 2022, the Summerville Police Department in South Carolina released a statement via Facebook that read, “The Summerville Police Department has seized Marijuana that has tested presumptive for Amphetamines and Fentanyl. The laced Marijuana was seized during two apparent drug overdose investigations and it is possible the laced Marijuana played a factor in the overdoses. We are asking the community to stay safe and to be careful.”

  On Nov. 18, 2021, the Connecticut State Department of Public Health (DPH) issued a press release that stated there were 39 overdose incidents involving fentanyl-laced weed in 2021. However, upon further forensic analysis, only one of those cases could be confirmed to involve fentanyl-laced marijuana.

  In its dismissal of fentanyl-laced marijuana, NORML points to the Connecticut case, and the forensic analysis. However, the article NORML cites also states: “Chris Boyle, a spokesperson for DPH, said a full analysis has now revealed at least 30 of the 39 overdoses were among patients with histories of opioid use.

  “Anything bought off the street, including cannabis, has the potential to contain other substances, one of those being fentanyl,’ Boyle told the media. “CT DPH has documented evidence, from not just the State Police Forensics Lab, but from the DEA lab as verification of the seized drug sample, that cannabis was contaminated with fentanyl.’”

  Increasing Prevalence

  According to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), fentanyl is a synthetic opioid that’s primarily manufactured in countries like China and then smuggled into the United States via Mexico.

  “Fentanyl is being mixed in with other illicit drugs to increase the potency of the drug, sold as powders and nasal sprays, and increasingly pressed into pills made to look like legitimate prescription opioids,” the DEA states.

  “There is significant risk that illegal drugs have been intentionally contaminated with fentanyl.”

  That’s something Howard Barker, the Director of Community Relations at New Life House, a sober living program for men in California, is seeing firsthand. Barker told The Epoch Times that he’s seeing a trend with fentanyl-laced marijuana that he first witnessed with cocaine.

  “I remember the first few times years ago that we started seeing overdoses happen with things like cocaine, and fentanyl was cut into things like cocaine, and we’re like, ‘There’s no way. Why would you ever put fentanyl in cocaine?’

  “I have been doing this professionally for over a decade, and I didn’t believe it. I said, ‘That doesn’t even make sense logically.’ You know, if a user is going to get cocaine and go up, the last thing they want to do is go down.

  “It’s similar with cannabis. If you have someone going for cannabis, and they’re hoping to smoke weed, the last thing they want to do is use one of the most potent opiates on the planet. But that’s what’s happening.”

  

  “Dealers have found that because of how addictive fentanyl is, and how potent it is, they start putting it in these other substances, and it’s very, very cheap to do, and they’re able to one, get more bang for their buck, two, potentially hook users, and three, [dealers] find themselves in a position where the folks that like it are coming back for more.”

  Barker added that while the majority of street dealers aren’t cutting marijuana with fentanyl, it’s still a growing problem.

  “The problem with fentanyl is that it’s really Russian Roulette,” he said.

  “So even if the majority of the time you’re buying weed on the streets you’re not getting weed laced with fentanyl, if there’s even that small chance that it could happen—and you happen to be the person that gets it—the old scary horror stories about drug abuse, ‘you do it one time, and you’re gonna die,’ that didn’t really use to be true 20 years ago, unfortunately, those cliches have become true.”

  In addition to New Life House, recovery centers nationwide are trying to raise awareness about the growing prevalence of fentanyl-laced weed.

  “Authorities around the country are responding to opioid overdoses daily, and fentanyl is increasingly being found in counterfeit prescription opioid pills, meth, and cocaine. Now, that’s extended to marijuana,” The Recovery Village warns.

  “Although marijuana is probably less likely to be intentionally laced with other psychoactive substances than many other illicit drugs, this situation does occur. It is more likely to occur in cases where individuals who are selling a drug illicitly are attempting to bulk up the product and get more profits or when very low-quality cannabis is laced with some other drug to enhance its psychoactive effects,” the American Addiction Centers states.

  First Drug

  Barker, who’s been in recovery for years and previously voted to legalize marijuana, believes Americans were lied to regarding marijuana.

  “We were really lied to as a society,” Barker said. “And that’s why this stuff has just been pushed through time and time again, state by state by state, without resistance. And now we’re seeing that there’s just a lot of unintended consequences that nobody was aware of. Whether we were deliberately misinformed or whether we just didn’t have the data. But now that the data has come out, we’ve chosen not to act because there’s too much money behind [legalizing marijuana].”

  

  Barker added, “Regardless of what the mainstream media will tell you, cannabis is a gateway drug. I have tremendous amounts of anecdotal evidence from being in this industry for a long time to support that. Talk to anyone with substance abuse issues and ask them what the first substance they used that kind of broke down the taboos and exposed them to that world, and 99.99 percent of them are going to say cannabis.”

  For the 12-month period that ended in October 2022, the FDA reported more than 101,750 fatal overdoses in the United States, many due to illicit fentanyl.

  The DEA didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ multiple requests for comment about the prevalence of fentanyl-laced marijuana.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 18:30

• China Bans Micron As Supplier Over 'Major National Security Risk'
  China Bans Micron As Supplier Over ‘Major National Security Risk’

  In retaliation over a sweeping US ban on selling advanced chip-making technology to China, Beijing is now banning major Chinese firms from doing business with Micron Technology, claiming that its products pose a ‘major national-security risk,’ the Wall Street Journal reports.

  

  On Sunday, the Cyberspace Administration of China said that Micron failed a national security review, and that its products contain “significant security risks” that would affect national security. The agency has warned operators of key Chinese information infrastructure (telecom firms and state-owned banks in particular) against purchasing Micron products.

  “We are evaluating the conclusion and assessing our next steps,” Micron told the Journal. “We look forward to continuing to engage in discussions with Chinese authorities.”

  The Chinese ban came less than two months after Beijing announced an investigation on imports from Micron, the largest memory-chip maker in the U.S., in what seemed a political gesture aimed at hitting back at a sweeping ban Washington put in place late last year on selling advanced chip-making technology to China. 

  Chinese officials believe certain American companies lobbied the Biden administration to institute the ban. The Micron probe suggested Beijing zeroed in on Micron as a particular target. It also comes as China has broadly ratcheted up pressure on foreign businesses in a bid to fortify its economy from foreign influence. -WSJ

  According to Lester Ross, a Beijing-based lawyer at WilmerHale which advises US companies doing business in China, the impact could be broader than initially thought.

  “Other domestic customers may also consider this to be a political signal to stop buying, and even replace, their products,” he said.

  The action against Micron follows Beijing’s condemnation of a recent statement issued by President Joe Biden and the leaders of six other countries which have pledged to take action against the transfer of sensitive technology to China, and to protect nations from what they’ve characterized as Chinese intimidation tactics.

  China, meanwhile, called the Group of Seven as fostering “Western rules” that lack international credibility.

  According to anonymous Chinese officials, Beijing is pondering whether to send Commerce Minister Wang Wentao to Washington DC to meet with his US counterpart, instead of sending him to Detroit for a meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation trade ministers.

  “Such a bilateral meeting must be conducted on the basis of mutual respect,” said one of the officials.

  On Sunday, Biden told reporters after the G-7 meeting that the US wants to open more lines of communication with China. “Then this silly balloon that was carrying two freight cars worth of spy equipment was flying over the United States and it got shot down and everything changed in terms of talking to one another,” he said. “I think you’re going to see that begin to thaw very shortly.”

  China has been looking for ways to retaliate against intensified U.S. sanctions against Chinese companies. It has held back its required green light for mergers that involve American companies such as Intel as the U.S.-China technology war intensifies.

  But Chinese officials have also been wary of punching too hard as to further limit Chinese companies’ access to advanced Western technology.

  Micron represents an easy target for Beijing because Chinese companies can easily switch out its products for those made by competitors such as Samsung and SK Hynix, according to analysts and Western business executives who have consulted with Chinese authorities. -WSJ

  Approximately 10% of Micron revenue comes from China, according to Gavekal Dragonomics.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 18:00

• The End Game For The Debt Ceiling
  The End Game For The Debt Ceiling

  By Howard Wang of Convoy Investments

  The US debt ceiling crisis

  Currently there is considerable political tension and bickering surrounding the US debt ceiling, resembling the dinner table dynamics of a financially troubled and debt laden family. Over the past few years, I have frequently discussed the escalating US sovereign debt level due to its growing significance in shaping politics, economics, and markets. Struggles like the ongoing debt ceiling issue are likely to become a regular part of our society.

  In this letter, I provide context regarding the current debt ceiling impasse, which I believe will have limited short-term impact. More importantly, I delve into the long-term outlook on US debt, discuss some potential solutions to address this issue, and examine the implications for markets and the economy.

  Near-term impact of the debt ceiling

  While the current round of debt ceiling talks make for good political theatrics, it is unlikely to have substantial practical ramifications on the economy. In the short term, the market anticipates that the US government will likely resolve this crisis. Market indicators suggest a low 1% per year probability of default on US debt over the next five years, slightly higher than during the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling crises

  

  Markets expect the debt ceiling to be raised without significant practical consequences. The impasse has had minimal impact on US borrowing costs, which have continued to slowly trend down since the end of last year in line with inflation.

  

  Additionally, the US stock market maintains its upward trajectory in 2023.

  

  The relatively benign outlook is likely due to fact that the underlying economics of the US budget were greatly improved by the pandemic, which allowed the US to secure low financing rates while printing money to generate inflation, and boost GDP growth and federal tax income. However, as indicated by the following chart, this positive trajectory is rapidly deteriorating due to rising interest rates, a return to more normal levels of inflation, and a slowing economy.

  

  This pattern is also evident when considering the total debt level as a percentage of GDP. After the initial spike caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the ratio steadily declined but is now on the rise once again.

  

  I largely agree with market sentiment that the current debt ceiling does not pose a significant immediate threat. However, I believe we are approaching a critical juncture where mounting debt levels, increasing financing costs, a slowing economy, and an expanding government footprint could compound and create an exponential problem.

  What is the end game of continuously increasing the debt ceiling?

  As the US has the ability to print its own money, the debt ceiling can be repeatedly raised for the time being. One key metric for assessing the sustainability is the cost of servicing debt as a percentage of the US federal government’s income (taxes). This is analogous to examining the monthly payments compared to income when determining whether one can afford a house. Let’s consider the rough math:

  The current debt stands at approximately 125% of GDP. At the current 4% treasury rate, debt servicing costs would amount to 5% of GDP per year once the 4% cost extends to all maturities, which will take some time.

  The federal government collects 15-20% of GDP as tax revenue, a consistent figure since World War II.

  This means that 25-33% of federal income would go toward debt servicing, which is high but still manageable. For instance, at the personal level, the recommended threshold for housing mortgage payment is typically 30% of income.

  Presently, this ratio is actually a bit lower, at around 20% of federal income. Much of the existing debt carries lower interest rates locked in from the last few decades. However, this ratio will rise rapidly as we retire older, cheaper debt and replace it with more expensive new debt. The following chart illustrates the portion of federal income allocated to debt servicing. We are already experiencing the rapid upward swing.

  

  This ratio would deteriorate further if total debt levels increase or if market financing costs rise. For example, at 200% of GDP and a 4% financing cost, interest payments would consume nearly half of federal income. Alternatively, if interest rates were to suddenly rise faster than our GDP growth rate, the total cost of rolling and raising new debt would increase. Either scenario could initiate a downward spiral toward a debt crisis, where the federal government needs to do substantial borrowing to service existing debt, all the while facing higher cost of financing due to the deteriorating balance sheet.

  So, how significant is the debt problem we must address? The current debt ceiling stands at $31.4 trillion. According to projections from the US Congress, we will need to issue an additional $130 trillion over the next 30 years, projected to reach around 200% of GDP.

  

  Issuing and managing $130 trillion in debt will pose the most substantial financial challenge for the next generation of Americans. Debt levels have now reached a point where they significantly impact politics, the economy, and financial markets. Gone are the days when Congress, the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve could operate relatively independently. We are already witnessing conflicts in managing objectives such as inflation, financial stability, recession, and the debt ceiling. These conflicts will only worsen. For instance, I believe the Federal Reserve will gradually shift its focus from managing inflation to assisting the Treasury department in managing national debt, albeit discreetly.

  Debt has become pervasive, affecting nearly every aspect of our economy and government. The following chart  provides a rough illustration of the interconnectedness that previously existed as more independent components.

  

  So how do we deal with the debt?

  The following are some of the levers that will determine whether we handle the debt issue in a healthy manner
  or allow it to spiral out of control. With the exception of the last lever, all the proposed solutions have painful
  side effects

  1) Maintain higher inflation than interest rates

  This approach would increase GDP income faster than interest rate costs, boosting income relative to debt. For example, post-Covid inflation has greatly benefited the US government’s budget as prices and income grew far faster than the cost of debt.

  

  However, higher inflation often comes with higher borrowing costs and other economic challenges, as we have recently experienced. Therefore, we cannot rely solely on inflating away the debt. Instead, I expect the Federal Reserve to maintain steady moderate inflation slightly higher than their 2% target, likely around that of 10-year treasury rates (around 3-4%).

  2) Decrease the value of the dollar

  Lowering the value of the dollar is similar to generating domestic inflation in foreign exchange terms. This approach would enhance US competitiveness, reduce trade deficits, and increase GDP. Following a significant surge during Covid, the dollar has begun to depreciate, and I anticipate that the Federal Reserve will encourage a gradual decline in its value.

  

  On the flip side, it is crucial to manage the dollar carefully since its stability has played a significant role in its status as the reserve currency, affording numerous benefits to the US. Additionally, as the dollar weakens, the US will experience imported inflation, which will gradually erode the average American’s standard of living. This cure will not come without painful side effects.

  3) Use quantitative easing to keep borrowing costs artificially low

  This has the obvious benefit of allowing the US to manage its own borrowing costs and to lock in longer term debt when long rates are appropriately low. Simultaneously, lower interest rates encourage shor-tterm growth, further boosting federal income. This strategy worked exceedingly well in the 2010s.

  This strategy enables the US to manage its borrowing costs and secure long-term debt when long-term rates are suitably low. Simultaneously, lower interest rates stimulated short-term growth, further increasing federal income. This approach proved highly effective during the 2010s. However, it is worth noting that since the US government would essentially be purchasing its own bonds, there are limitations to this strategy. After all, the Federal Reserve cannot own the entire market. Since Covid, the Federal Reserve has held approximately 30% of all US debt.

  

  I suspect this figure could be increased if necessary. Nevertheless, this strategy must be employed strategically as there are limitations. Carefully managing the financing costs is crucial because of its significant impact on the future of our federal balance sheet. A mere 1% change in financing rates can drastically alter the trajectory of our budget, as shown below in the projections from the congressional budget office.

  

  4) Increase taxes

  Raising taxes on a given size of GDP would augment federal tax income. Historically, the US government has collected roughly 15-20% of GDP as tax revenue since World War II.

  

  Increasing taxes will create economic pain and face much political resistance, but may become necessary if the debt situation becomes dire enough. So we should anticipate potential increases in income taxes, wealth taxes, estate taxes, property taxes, and tariffs.

  5) Reduce government spending

  Reducing government spending is challenging since, aside from spikes and drops during wartime and times like the Covid pandemic, the size of our government has consistently expanded. As our country ages and programs like Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid become more expensive, we can expect government spending to continue growing.

  

  Implementing any cuts will be painful and face considerable political resistance. However, we may find ourselves with no choice but to tighten our belts, so we should prepare for potential reductions in discretionary spending in the future, along with associated economic pains.

  6) Related to above, semi-defaults on certain obligations like social security

  I anticipate that we may witness soft defaults on mandatory spending, such as scaling back on Social Security. For instance, the Social Security Trust Fund is projected to deplete within the next ten years due to deficits.

  

  Consequently, the program is anticipated to accumulate massive annual deficits, reaching up to $9 trillion per year by 2090, exacerbating the existing US debt issues.

  

  It is highly likely that the next generation of US retirees will not receive the Social Security benefits promised to them.

  7) Increase real GDP

  This is by far the most desirable solution, as it entails no downsides. It is also how the US managed to overcome its World War II debts. The success of this approach largely hinges on the US’s ability to maintain leadership in cutting-edge fields like AI. The provided chart showcases the long-term evolution of the US stock market as a proxy to the US economy. US stock market capitalization as % of the world experienced continuous growth from 1900 to 1970 as the US emerged as the world superpower after the two World Wars. Subsequently, the rest of the world rebuilt and advanced, with countries like Japan rising to prominence and taking away global share. Since 1990, the US has once again regained global market share, largely on the back of technological advancements.

  

  I remain optimistic about the future of the US economy, primarily due to the massive leverage potential in technology, which tends to be a winner-takes-all industry. The head start and ecosystem that the US has cultivated in fields like AI provide our greatest hope for addressing our government’s precarious finances.

  I believe that US debt will pose a significant problem requiring a combination of all seven levers to resolve. The more we can rely on the last lever of real economic growth, the less painful the process will be. I believe the US will grapple with substantial debt issues while simultaneously serving as a beacon of global growth and innovation.

  From an investment standpoint, I expect high volatility, characterized by both extreme highs and lows. Diversification of currencies and assets will be crucial, especially as central banks are forced to become more prominent players in the market, resulting in more black swan events. However, I believe maintaining exposure to US equities, particularly in technology sectors at reasonable valuations, will be key to long-term success.

  Because of my expectation of higher-than-anticipated inflation, I think it is important to hedge against inflation directly through commodities, TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities), and a small allocation to gold or cryptocurrencies if you believe in the long-term potential of that asset class. Specifically, switching to TIPS early on is recommended due to its relatively small market size compared to nominal bonds, which I hold a bearish view on in the long term. I believe gone are the days of the traditional 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. You’ll like need a 60/40 portfolio of stocks and inflation hedge assets.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 17:30

• Irony? Guess Which Nation Produces The World's Most Honey
  Irony? Guess Which Nation Produces The World’s Most Honey

  China is not only the country in the world producing the most honey, but it also leads in revenue per capita generated with one of nature’s oldest and most widely used sweeteners.

  

  As Statista’s Florain Zandt reports, according to calculations based on Statista Market Insights and World Bank population data, China’s honey industry made $17 per inhabitant of the country in 2021. Two of the other spots in the top 8 are claimed by Asian countries as well.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  As Statista’s chart shows, Indonesia and Vietnam come in sixth and seventh with a per-capita revenue of $6.5 and $6.0, respectively. This reflects the importance of Asian markets for global honey production. In 2021, almost half of the world’s honey came out of countries from this geographic region. Other important honey markets include Canada, North Macedonia and Switzerland.

  Honey from Asia, especially China, has been the subject of intense scrutiny by market watchdogs in recent years. India, a country traditionally opposed to many of China’s endeavors in politics and business, is increasingly focused on uncovering the amount of honey exported from the People’s Republic allegedly cut with cheaper and lower-quality syrup.

  

  Looking at the total market value of sweeteners worldwide, honey had a share of 28 percent of the total global revenue of $145 billion.

  While artificial sweeteners like saccharin or stevia contributed $21.7 billion, sugar was responsible for $82.3 billion.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 17:00

• Bill Gates 'Blackmailed' By Jeffrey Epstein Over Affair With Russian Bridge Player
  Bill Gates ‘Blackmailed’ By Jeffrey Epstein Over Affair With Russian Bridge Player

  Remember when Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said he ‘only had dinner’ with Jeffrey Epstein?

  FLASHBACK: Bill Gates is asked if his ex-wife Melinda was warning him about Jeffrey Epstein sexually compromising him:

  Bill responded “No — I had dinner with him, and that’s all.” pic.twitter.com/xaVincPcAA

  — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) May 21, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Turns out (ok, we’ve known for a while) that’s a total lie – as the two also had a Russian bridge player in common, Mila Antonova.

  

  According to the Wall Street Journal, Gates met Antonova in 2010 at a bridge competition, leading to an affair. Three years later, after Gates associate Boris Nikolic referred her to Jeffrey Epstein to help raise $500K for an online bridge business which failed to pan out, Epstein paid for her to attend coding classes.

  In 2014, Antonova “stayed briefly at an apartment in New York City provided by Epstein” but claims not to have met with the guy who paid for her education.

  Then in 2017, the pedophile financier allegedly blackmailed Gates over the affair – demanding in an email that the Microsoft co-founder to reimburse him for Antonova’s education. Given the de minimis amount involved for both men, Gates interpreted this 2017 email as threat to expose his 2010 affair.

  So, poor boner-killer Bill was actually an Epstein victim all along, you see, and everyone interviewed for the report says they knew nothing about Epstein’s pedophile sex-trafficking operation and was ‘disgusted with what he did,’ etc.

  

  But in March of 2013, long before the two had thrown out their BFF bracelets, they were hanging out at the house of Thorbjørn Jagland, then chair of the Nobel Peace Prize committee where the pair allegedly discussed ” the security situation in Afghanistan as part of Mr. Gates’ work on polio eradication,” according to a spokeswoman for the billionaire. We’re sure.

  While he was working on the charitable fund, Epstein met in 2013 with Gates and Norwegian officials who were visitors to Epstein’s townhouse. Epstein told one former Gates Foundation employee that he knew the Norwegians, and could help Gates win a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to eradicate polio.

  Here’s what else is contained in the report (some known, some unknown).

  • “Starting in 2011, Gates had more than a half dozen meetings scheduled with Epstein, including dinners at Epstein’s New York townhouse, documents show. “
  • Gates flew on Epstein’s ‘lolita express’ plane from New Jersey to Florida in March, 2013. “That same month the two men met in France with an official on the Nobel Peace Prize committee.” (that official being its chair, Thorbjørn Jagland)

  While he was working on the charitable fund, Epstein met in 2013 with Gates and Norwegian officials who were visitors to Epstein’s townhouse. Epstein told one former Gates Foundation employee that he knew the Norwegians, and could help Gates win a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to eradicate polio.

  • In 2012, Epstein pitched Gates on a failed investment in a multibillion-dollar, JPMorgan-run charitable fund with a minimum contribution of $100 million.

  The deal went sideways. In messages to Jes Staley and Mary Erdoes, Epstein essentially coached the JPMorgan execs on how to pitch the fund to Gates’ team.

  “In essence this [fund] will allow Bill to have access to higher quality people , investment , allocation , governance without upsetting either his marriage or the sensitvites of the current foundation employees,” Epstein wrote on Aug. 16, 2011.

  The next day, Epstein wrote: “Bill is terribly frustrated. He woud! like to boost some of the things that are working without taking away from thoses that are not.”

  Six weeks later on Oct. 2, Epstein sent another email to Staley and Erdoes criticizing a JPMorgan presentation. “the presentation , is not tailored to bill.. He is the only person , the only one, that counts.”

  The charitable fund never got off the ground. “The firm didn’t need him as a client,” a JPMorgan spokesman said of Epstein. “The firm didn’t need him for introductions. Knowing what we know today, we wish we had never done business with him.” A spokesman for the bank said Erdoes declined to comment. A lawyer for Staley, who is no longer at JPMorgan, didn’t respond to a request for comment. Staley has previously said he regrets his friendship with Epstein. -WSJ

  But – given that this deal fell through in 2012 or so, and the two were hobnobbing at the Nobel Peace Price Committee Chairman’s house in 2013, it’s obvious that the two mended fences and moved on.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 16:00

• FDA Advisers Back Maternal RSV Vaccine As Pfizer Says Safety Concerns Can Be Studied Post-Approval
  FDA Advisers Back Maternal RSV Vaccine As Pfizer Says Safety Concerns Can Be Studied Post-Approval

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) voiced support on May 18 for Pfizer’s maternal RSV vaccine even after several expressed concerns over premature births.

  

  Outside experts on the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee unanimously said data from two trials run by Pfizer were sufficient to support the vaccine being effective at preventing RSV disease in infants. They also voted 10–4 in the affirmative when asked if the data from the trials were sufficient to demonstrate the safety of the vaccine.

  The votes set up FDA clearance for what would be the first maternal vaccine for the respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.

  Pfizer’s vaccine, a recombinant protein subunit shot, targets the RSV A and RSV B subgroups in a 120 microgram dose that would be given to pregnant women in the second or third trimester. The goal would be to relay antibodies against RSV to fetuses, conferring protection that is supposed to last through the first year of life.

  The vaccine was 81.8 percent efficacious through 90 days after birth against severe lower respiratory tract illness due to RSV. The efficacy dropped to 69.4 percent after another 90 days.

  For any RSV-positive medically attended lower respiratory tract illness, the vaccine started at 57.1 percent efficacy and dropped to 51.3 percent over the same timeframe, according to data from a phase 3 trial that included about 3,500 vaccinated pregnant women.

  The efficacy for medically attended lower respiratory tract illness from any cause was just 2.5 percent at 180 days and 5.1 percent at 360 days.

  FDA staffers said in a briefing document that the trial showed “successful vaccine efficacy,” and the advisers seconded that view with their unanimous vote.

  But multiple experts expressed concerns about the risk of the vaccine causing premature births, a risk found in a similar product made by GlaxoSmithKline that prompted the company to halt testing in 2022.

  In Pfizer’s trial, there were more premature deliveries in the vaccinated arm than the placebo arm—5.7 percent in the former versus 4.7 percent in the latter.

  “That is hanging over this program,” Dr. Paul Offit, one of the FDA’s advisers, said during Thursday’s meeting.

  The FDA declined to comment on the issue during the meeting, though staffers wrote in a brief that there was “potential uncertainty” regarding premature births.

  Pfizer executives said Pfizer’s vaccine has important differences from the GlaxoSmithKline one, including the way they’re stabilized. They also acknowledged that there was “an overall significant difference in preterm births” between the arms but said the difference was not statistically significant and was driven primarily by data from sites in South Africa.

  “I think we need to place all of this in context. As you’ve already heard, the overall results show no statistically significant difference. The results are driven by the upper- and middle-income countries with the high-income countries not showing this difference,” Dr. William Gruber, Pfizer’s senior vice president for vaccine clinical research and panelists, told panelists. “And as you’ve heard from us, as well as the FDA, there’s the real opportunity, then, to look at this during the period of pharmacovigilance, when we have larger numbers of women being vaccinated, to determine whether or not there is, in fact, any sort of a signal.”

  “But the evidence to this point provides no real support when we take the totality of it based on the Pfizer vaccine for an increased risk of prematurity, and we can investigate that, again, post-approval,” he added later.

  The quote drew criticism from Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.), a doctor who criticized a similar comment made about Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine.

  “Most drugs carry side effects. When considering maternal vaccinations, significant complications such as severe premature births or even pre-term and neonatal deaths may be present. The notion of vaccinating populations to determine whether or not there will be any side effects leads to a mistrust in the FDA, public health, and the medical community,” Murphy told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

  Dr. Iona Munjal, a Pfizer senior director for vaccines, noted during the meeting that there were more deaths in the placebo group. “When you look at poor outcomes like death or poor neonatal outcomes in our study, we don’t see those poor outcomes,” she said. “And this is probably due to the fact that most of the infants are born very near term and not proximally related to the vaccine.”

  

  RSV

  RSV peaks in the United States during the winter, with very low levels during the summer and fall. It primarily affects children under the age of 1, though it also impacts older children. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates 100 to 300 children die each year from RSV, though a death certificate review for the 12 years ending in 2016 identified just 478 in that population, including 315 younger than age 1.

  Approximately 68 percent of infants are infected before they turn 1, panel members heard, and U.S. officials say the vaccine would help curb a major reason for hospitalization.

  The vaccine and others like it are “designed to overcome the shortcomings of previous efforts … [and] represent structural immunology and molecular engineering over empiric vaccinology against a respiratory virus that exacts its heaviest disease burden in the youngest and older adults,” Dr. David Kaslow, the director of the FDA’s Office of Vaccines Research and Review, told the panel.

  The Pfizer vaccine efficacy for hospitalizations due to RSV was 67.7 percent at 90 days but dropped to just 33.3 percent at 360 days, according to the trial data.

  Only one RSV vaccine is currently available in the United States. It is only for adults aged 60 and older.

  Votes

  Many panelists said they were convinced by the high efficacy data, despite concerns about the premature births.

  “If the vaccine actually lives up to the data that we’ve seen today, I can guarantee that many infants and their parents will breathe easier in the coming years,” Dr. Jay Portnoy, one of the members, said.

  Some said there’s a need for a vaccine.

  “If there’s anything real there, we want to make sure we are aware of this. But this really does address a real, real strong need; there isn’t another option here for prevention,” Adam Berger, one of the panelists, said. “And it really could save a lot of lives. So I do think a lot of this is going to lie on the postmarketing requirements.”

  The FDA lists required studies for drug and vaccine manufacturers to carry out in letters of authorization and approval.

  Others echoed Pfizer in asserting that observational data, or looking at outcomes in women who receive the vaccine after it is cleared, would clear up whether premature birth is a side effect.

  “Observational studies, as we go forward will fairly quickly give us an answer. If there is a problem there,” Dr. Arnold Monto, another member, said. “We learned how to bite the bullet and get things out during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine approvals.”

  Dr. Henry Bernstein, another member, said he had reservations due to not wanting another situation like the quick removal of a rotavirus vaccine following a spike in cases of intussusception, a life-threatening condition. Intussusception following vaccination “was not statistically significant until it was more widely used,” he said.

  While all members said the efficacy data support licensure, Offit, Bernstein, Holly Janes, and Dr. Hana El Sahly said the safety data were not sufficient.

  “If you’re in any sense risking premature births with this vaccine, I think there’ll be a big price to pay. And so I just don’t feel we have enough data to be reassuring,” Offit said.

  “There was too much uncertainty,” Janes added. “And I’m uncomfortable with the notion of kicking the can down the road … toward post-marketing surveillance studies. I think it’s a bit different to rely on surveillance studies to sort of confirm what appears to be a safe product whereas here, I think the signals are such that the post-marketing surveillance data would be asked to refute what is sort of a potential hypothesis here, and I think that’s a higher bar.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 15:30

• Biden Taunts Russia At G7 When Asked About "Colossal Risk" Of Escalation
  Biden Taunts Russia At G7 When Asked About “Colossal Risk” Of Escalation

  President Joe Biden taunted Russia while speaking with reporters Sunday at the G-7 summit in Japan. The big decision which has been a main talking point at the meeting was the White House telling European allies that the US will allow them to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine if they desire. 

  This has led to questions over whether this escalation in policy could bring NATO and Russia into direct clash. Here’s how a particular exchange went as the G7 wrapped up:

  Journalist asks Biden about Russia saying that giving Ukraine F-16s is a “colossal risk” .

  Biden: It is, FOR THEM.

  U.S. President Biden while at the G7 Summit in Hiroshima, Japan was asked what his Response was to Russia who stated yesterday if F-16 Multirole Fighter Aircraft are provided to Ukraine it will be a “Colossal Risk to the West” with Biden stating, “It is for them”. pic.twitter.com/sKjJnN2d9g

  — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) May 21, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also presented a stance of ‘toughness’ and optimism concerning the war. In a speech marking the end of the G-7 he  urged the Western allies to ensure that Russia is the “last aggressor”.

  He called Ukraine’s own 10-point peace plan the world’s “salvation from war,” and emphasized that “We will paralyze other potential aggressors.” 

  “When everyone who wants war sees how determined the world is when it wants peace, there will be no point to start a war,” he said. 

  His words came on the heels of Biden unveiling another $375million military aid package featuring more ammo, vehicles, and weapons. But news of the fall of Bakhmut clearly put a damper on the G7 proceedings for those officials gathered in Hiroshima. Zelensky appeared to offer some degree of confirmation that Ukraine no longer holds the city, following the Saturday announcement from Wagner: 

  The reports that Zelensky supposedly confirmed loss of Bakhmut city are from what I can tell inaccurate. Here he clearly says “I think no” in answer to “the Russians say they’ve taken Bakhmut” before saying that the city is no longer, only in hearts. pic.twitter.com/ThBcDL1oNo

  — Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) May 21, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As for Biden, he attempted to present the loss of Bakhmut as in the end more devastating for the Russian side, claiming that it suffered a huge number of casualties: 

  “There is a discussion about Bakhmut – whether or not it’s been lost or whatever,” he said.

  “Well, the truth of the matter is the Russians have suffered over 100,000 casualties in Bakhmut. That’s hard to make up. So whether or not there are troops in Bakhmut occupying, there are not many buildings left standing in Bakhmut. It’s a pretty devastated city. But they have been able to move in a direction that they’ve been able to lock down an awful lot of the Russian forces, including the Wagner Group.”

  Biden made this statement in the context of the upcoming counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the possible transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. According to the U.S. president, F-16s “would not have helped (the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut).”

  It’s unclear where the US president got these numbers, but they have been echoed before by some Pentagon and intelligence officials. It seems Washington’s new narrative will be to consider Bakhmut only an extremely costly Pyrrhic victory for the Russian side.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 15:00

• This Year's Emmy For Outstanding Reality Series Goes to…
  This Year’s Emmy For Outstanding Reality Series Goes to…

  By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

  This Year’s Emmy for Outstanding Reality Series Goes to…

  The Debt Ceiling.

  Voters were just amazed at how much was made from such a flimsy topic. Others commented that the debt ceiling had become tired, worn, and too predictable, but this year’s cast of characters brought out some new energy. While highly unusual to be given an award for a series that hasn’t been finished, it just stood out as being deserving of the recognition. Critics claimed that it was manufactured, unbelievable, and with one-dimensional characters constrained by an unbelievable script, but the audience is always right!

  How can this move markets when 95% of people believe that a default cannot happen? Even those who think that it could happen don’t believe that it is likely. Yet, markets moved on a series of headlines, including the ever popular “the meeting ended abruptly in disagreement” followed by “they are heading back to the table”.

  Who out there wasn’t gripped by the tale? The “behind the scenes” end of season reveal should be exciting. Just imagine senior political officials huddled in an office, apparently discussing the fate of the nation’s debt, but in reality are all logged into their trading accounts to make sure that they buy or sell ahead of the news. Ok, I’m sure that the last part didn’t happen, but it is kind of funny (in a sad way) to think about, as insider trading isn’t prohibited in any way on the hill and the headlines, especially late in the week, seemed to be perfect for triggering buy programs and later a sell program or two.

  In any case, the debt ceiling continues to take up a lot of focus for markets. Probably far too much focus as default seems unlikely, and despite the “world is ending” arguments, I don’t see a default (that is cured within a few days or a week) as being devastating. Longer-term maybe, but I’d likely buy any “default dip”.

  In the meantime, the S&P (up 1.7%) and Nasdaq (up 3.0%) posted strong weeks even as rates rose rather significantly. I didn’t believe that we would see much of a “debt ceiling resolved” bounce since I don’t think that many have been shorting against the debt ceiling specifically.

  Next Week

  Last week, Academy was a lead manager on Bank of NY’s 3NC2 bonds. Always exciting for Academy when we get selected for such a senior role. I spent much of the week away from the screens, as we travelled from Peoria to Kiawah and then on to DC and Virginia. I got to spend time with several of our generals and admirals and look forward to doing a more geopolitical slanted macro piece early next week. China was front and center, as was the dollar, but more on that on Tuesday.

  On Tuesday we get NVDA earnings. The stock is up over 110% year-to-date and is a focal point for the AI theme. When looking at markets for the past month (S&P up 1.4% and Nasdaq up 4.9%), I’m pretty sure that if you pull the “AI themed stocks” out of the S&P 500 it would have been negative.

  

  AI is the growth story and undoubtedly is changing the world. Everyone is examining AI and thinking about not just how to use it, but how to keep their jobs relevant in an AI driven world. I’m fully on board with that, but have valuations gotten ahead of themselves? Is AI really big enough (and soon enough) to prop up the entire market? However, I can see the rationale and could be convinced that there is a lot more to come. On the other hand, I’m old enough to remember the “metaverse” (and that rally) and a time when companies that were changing their names to include “blockchain” saw significant pops. Everything about the AI story seems much bigger than either of those examples, but the market seems to have a habit of getting ahead of itself. In a market where there has been so little to like (I keep seeing stats complaining about the lack of breadth), it is easy to gravitate to the one story that has legs. The NVDA earnings (and call) could be the biggest market driver of any release this earnings season, which is an accomplishment in its own right!

  In between flights, checking in and out of hotel rooms, discussing geopolitics, digesting debt ceiling headlines, and getting smarter about the AI revolution, I did think a bit about the economy. We saw some “mixed” data last week, but nothing that changes my view that the best is behind us. Rather than haphazardly pulling together some charts, I will go back to an old favorite – the Citi Economic Surprise Index.

  

  A few weeks ago we postulated that we would see a downturn in the “surprise” index. The “surprise” index is interesting because it is “relative”. Just because it is declining doesn’t mean that the data is bad. It could just be that expectations got so strong that even “good” data created a negative surprise. This time around, the data has gotten weaker, since I’m finding very few positive economists (which, as a contrarian, scares me as I’m definitely part of the consensus).

  As the data deteriorates, forecasts will be lowered. I do think that once we make it through the debt ceiling (which really seems like just a bad idea for a reality TV series) and the AI earnings, we will see some economic bears get some airtime. As data disappoints, those that were looking for a downturn in the data (and expecting a recession) will get some more attention, which should act as a headwind for risk.

  By the middle of next week, we will be back to focusing on the economy and what that means for markets (and that won’t be supportive).

  In the meantime, I just want to thank all of Academy’s customers, not just for the business and opportunities that you provide us with, but for all of the discussions and information sharing which makes us smarter and better able to serve you!

  Thanks again! And if I sound too harsh on DC and the time spent on the debt ceiling, I actually toned down my comments and I am pretty sure that my editors will do the same!

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 05/21/2023 – 14:30

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• Paul Craig Roberts: The United States Has Been Destroyed By Its Ruling Elites
  Paul Craig Roberts: The United States Has Been Destroyed By Its Ruling Elites

  Via PaulCraigRoberts.org, (emphasis ours)

  Against the backdrop of the United States’ recognition of the investigation against Donald Trump as politically motivated, structural and ideological controversies, and concerns that the American economy will enter a recession, the GEOFOR editorial board asked Paul Craig Roberts, Chairman of the Institute for Political Economy (USA), a PhD in Economics and US Undersecretary of Treasury in the Reagan administration, to share his views on America’s future.

  

  GEOFOR: Special Counsel John Durham “acquitted” Donald Trump on the so-called “Russiagate”, writing in his report that the FBI investigation was politically motivated. How will this news affect the Democrats’ fight against Trump?

  Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: The Special Counsel’s vindication of Donald Trump and denunciation of the FBI for conducting a politically motivated investigation devoid of any evidence should collapse the equally fraudulent Biden regime investigation of Trump on fake documents charges and the New York state prosecution of Trump on alleged expense misreporting charges. It has been clear for a long time that the list of fake charges against Trump, supported by the media, are propaganda to prevent Trump again running for President and to teach all future potential presidential candidates that they will be destroyed if they attempt to represent the people instead of the unelected ruling oligarchy.

  However, the Democrat Party and the presstitutes that service them have no respect whatsoever for truth. Facts simply do not matter to them. This is true also of American Universities, law associations, medical associations, the CIA, FBI, NSA, the State Department, the regulatory agencies such as NIH, CDC, FDA, the large corporations, and many establishment Republican members of the House and Senate who serve the economic interests that pay them, not truth. It is also the case with a high percentage of Democrat voters who have been conditioned by propaganda to hate Trump. To Democrats what matters is not facts, but getting Trump. Truth is not permitted to prevent the destruction of Trump.

  Consequently, the US is moving toward a fatal split in the society from which recovery is impossible. Trump represents ordinary Americans who prefer peace to the neoconservatives’ wars, who want their jobs back that the greed-driven capitalist global corporations sent to China and Asia, who want their children properly educated instead of indoctrinated with sexual perversion, Satanism, and told that they are racists. In contrast, the Democrats are increasingly Woke–people who believe that truth is an oppressive tool of white supremacy, that Christian morality is tyrannical and discriminatory against pedophiles and other sexual perverts, and that, as “President” Biden himself has said, white people are the greatest threat to America. See: https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2023/05/15/us-navy-enlists-drag-queen-for-digital-ambassador-role-to-attract-more-recruits-2/

  Now that official investigations by the House Republicans have brought the utter corruption of Biden and his son to light (see: https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2023/05/16/bank-records-show-biden-family-received-10-million-in-payments-from-china-foreign-interests-house-oversight/ ), the Democrats, the dangerous and corrupt military/security complex, and the complicit whore American media, are desperate. They all stand as being exposed. So, rather than apologize for their mistreatment of Trump and his supporters–1,000 of whom the Democrats have illegally imprisoned–they will likely strike out while they still control the Executive Branch, the US Senate, the CIA, FBI, NSA, and federal agencies such as the IRS that have been armed and militarized.

  Alternatively, the corrupt and threatened Democrats might cause war between the US and Russia, or Iran, or China in the hopes that a war will unify even Trump supporters, especially the super-patriots among them, around the “President” against “foreign enemies.”

  GEOFOR: Recently there were reports that former Vice President Mike Pence seriously intends to compete with Donald Trump in the presidential race of 2024. How do you assess his chances and why did he decide to take such a step?

  Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: Mike Pence has no chance whatsoever of prevailing over Donald Trump. Pence is running as a service to the ruling establishment. Spence is a pretend Christian Evangelical. Evangelicals don’t oppose Armageddon, because they believe they will be wafted up to Heaven, while those still on earth get consumed in fire. The Ruling American Oligarchy hopes that Spence will draw off the Christian Evangelicals from the Trump vote, thus reducing Trump’s margin of victory so that the Democrats can again steal the presidential election. As evangelicals are not very astute, the Democrats might succeed in derailing Trump and the American people. Pence, of course, would not become president.

  GEOFOR: We can’t help but ask about the migration problem. After the abolition of Section 42, analysts predict a new influx of refugees from Mexico and Latin America. What will such problems lead to and will they affect the election of the head of the White House next year?

  Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: The Biden regime is spending billions of dollars “to defend Ukraine’s borders,” but won’t spend one penny to defend America’s borders. The Democrats want the Hispanic and Black immigrants, who they will give the vote, because the immigrant-invaders water down the white majority population and destroy the ethnic basis of the US. Instead of a unified nation, there is a Tower of Babel.

  As the Democrats control the major cities in most states and thereby the election rules and vote counting, It doesn’t matter how people vote. As Stalin said, the only thing that matters is who counts the vote. Only a total fool would expect Democrats to count votes that gave victory to Republicans.

  GEOFOR: Passions around the American public debt, inflation, jobs and the possible new collapses of American banks are only growing. Tell us, please, what awaits the American economy in the foreseeable future? After all, the recession in the United States will have an impact on the whole world one way or another…

  Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: The United States, despite my best efforts and the efforts of others for decades, has been destroyed by its ruling elites for the sake of short-term profits and short-term growth in power over the people. By offshoring its manufacturing jobs, the global corporations destroyed the American middle class and the ladders to upward mobility that had made America the “opportunity society.” Today many former American manufacturing and industrial cities look like the remains of bombed cities.

  As US corporations produce the goods abroad that they market to Americans, the goods enter the US as imports. Thus, offshoring production for the home market worsens the trade deficit.

  The trade deficit has to be financed. This is no problem for the US as long as the dollar is in demand as the reserve currency by all countries in order to pay for their international transactions, and countries with trade surpluses keep their monetary surpluses in US Treasury bonds, thus financing both the US trade and budget deficits. Washington in an act of incredible stupidity has driven a dagger through the heart of the US dollar as world reserve currency, thus ending Washington’s ability to pay its bills by printing money. The dagger was the Biden regime’s Russian and other sanctions and the seizure of Russia’s central bank deposits. This finally convinced the rest of the world that holding dollar balances exposed a country to the risk of expropriation or control by Washington.

  The consequence is that the world is moving away from the use of the dollar, instead settling their trade balances in their own or other currencies. Therefore, the demand for dollars is declining, but the supply is rising because of the US trade and budget deficits.

  Sooner or later the US dollar’s exchange value will fall, setting off high inflation in the US that is outside the control of the central bank. American living standards will fall, and the US will begin to look like India in 1900.The hatred of white people that Democrats have taught to blacks and immigrant-invaders will result in internal war. The only question is whether white Americans will have been so indoctrinated with their guilt that they are unable to defend themselves.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 23:30

• Where The Most Death Penalties Are Carried Out
  Where The Most Death Penalties Are Carried Out

  At least 883 people are known to have been put to death last year, according to Amnesty International’s annual review of the death penalty. However, as Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, the true number is likely far higher, as several countries do not publish accurate figures – including North Korea, Vietnam and Belarus.

  In China, where numbers remain a state secret, thousands of people are believed to be executed and sentenced to death each year.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  As Statista’s chart shows, Iran comes second only after China with at least 576 people known to have been executed in 2022, up 55 percent from the year.

  The crimes behind these executions are mostly related to drugs and murder, while 18 were for moharebeh (enmity against God), which can be connected to the protests surrounding the death of Mahsa Amini.

  Amnesty International notes that Saudi Arabia also saw a significant increase in death sentences since 2020, rising from 27 to a record high of 196 deaths, 83 of whom were executed for terrorism-related crimes. In total, 55 countries still have the death penalty, 20 of which recorded executions in 2022.

  In the U.S., 18 executions were recorded in 2022 across six jurisdictions. These were Alabama (2), Arizona (3), Mississippi (1), Missouri (2), Oklahoma (5), and Texas (5). Meanwhile, there were 21 new death sentences recorded across 12 states. These included: Alabama (3), Arizona (1), California (2), Florida (5), Georgia (1), Louisiana (1), Mississippi (1), Missouri (1), North Carolina (2), Oklahoma (1), Pennsylvania (1) and Texas (2).

  It is worth noting that while 2021 saw a 20 percent increase from the year before, both years represented the lowest number of executions since Amnesty International’s records began back in 2010. This lull, likely due to executions being put on hold because of the pandemic, seems to over, with the figures reaching their highest point since 2017.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 23:00

• Gun Industry Writes To Congress As Imminent Ban Threatens 40 Million Firearms
  Gun Industry Writes To Congress As Imminent Ban Threatens 40 Million Firearms

  Submitted by Gun Owners of America,

  On June 1st, the Biden Pistol Ban is set to go into effect. This rule, concocted by the bureaucrats at ATF, criminalizes ownership of an estimated 40 million firearms currently in possession by law-abiding citizens. 

  According to the final rule, gun owners who possess braced firearms will have to destroy, reconfigure, register, and turn in their firearms to ATF, or face NFA violations which include $250,000 in fines and a hefty prison sentence.

  

  This rule will have some of the most wide-reaching impacts nationwide compared to other ATF administrative rulemaking actions. In comparison, ATF’s bump stock rule was estimated to have affected 520,000 Americans, whereas this pistol brace ruling affects 80 times more law-abiding citizens.

  In response, the No Compromise Alliance sent a letter signed by notable firearms industry companies to Congress. 

  Among the undersigned are notable firearms industry companies such as Rifle Dynamics, Kahr Arms Group, KCI USA, Tippmann Arms, and more. 

  Additionally, two other letters were sent to Congress, with notable people of influence throughout the firearms community – representing more than 30 million viewers – and local ranges & shops that are bound to be affected by ATF’s overreach. 

  While these letters certainly make a statement, Gun Owners of America is working on all fronts to defeat the ATF’s pistol brace rule before it goes into effect. 

  GOA has a lawsuit in the 5th Circuit with Texas AG Ken Paxton. This circuit is the same that recently overturned the ATF’s bump stock rule in January of 2023. 

  In addition, GOA has backed legislation targeting the root of the issue with the SHORT Act. The act itself would remove Short Barreled Rifles (SBR), Short Barreled Shotguns (SBS), and ATF’s favorite, “Any Other Weapons” (AOWs) from the unconstitutional regulation of the National Firearms Act. 

  The NFA is the law that ATF derives its regulatory authority from on the brace issue, so the SHORT Act aims to stop the ATF by removing its power over such items in the first place. 

  Lastly, GOA has fought hard with our allies in Congress to bring the ATF’s pistol brace rule under scrutiny via the Congressional Review Act. 

  For those unfamiliar, the Congressional Review Act allows Congress to file a joint resolution of disapproval, which would overturn agency rulemaking. 

  This is where we need your help. 

  With our legal fight against Biden and his ATF coming down to the wire, please call your Senators and Representatives and let them know to support the Joint Resolution for Congressional disapproval of the ATF’s rulemaking. 

  🚨ALERT🚨

  The below GOP representatives have STILL NOT cosponsored H.J. Res. 44 to stop Biden from banning 40,000,000 pistols on June 1st, 2023.

  We have 13 days. Call them NOW and ask them to support H.J. Res. 44. ☎️ 202-224-3121@SpeakerMcCarthy@SteveScalise@GOPMajorityWhip…

  — Gun Owners of America (@GunOwners) May 18, 2023

  You can call your elected officials at (202) 224-3121

  Let them know to support S.J. RES. 20 if they’re in the Senate & H.J. RES. 20 if they’re in the House of Representatives. 

  *   *   * 

  We’ll hold the line for you in Washington. We are No Compromise. Join the Fight Now.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 22:30

• Where 'Conversion Therapy' Is Still Legal
  Where ‘Conversion Therapy’ Is Still Legal

  Conversion therapy has been banned in several countries around the world, including Canada, Brazil, Ecuador, Spain, Germany, France, Malta and New Zealand, according to data aggregated by the Global Equality Caucus and The International Lesbian Gay Bisexual Trans and Intersex Association (ILGA).

  Conversion therapy is the process of trying to stop someone from being gay or trying to stop someone who wants to change their gender identity.

  Methods include spoken therapy and prayer, or even more extreme tactics such as exorcism, physical violence, or food deprivation, as reported by the BBC. The British Psychological Society and Royal College of Psychiatrists in the UK declared that all kinds of conversion therapy are “unethical and potentially harmful”.

  As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, in much of the world the practice of conversion therapy is still legal.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  In multiple other countries though, although no explicit legislative ban exists, limited bans or bans through indirect prohibition have been introduced.

  For example, several countries have introduced a ban on health practitioners to carry out conversion therapy. These include Albania, Switzerland and Taiwan (the latter banning health care professionals from carrying out conversion therapies on minors). In India, Tamil Nadu became the first Indian state to ban conversion therapy after a court order issued by a justice of the Madras High Court in 2021.

  Meanwhile, several countries, such as Australia, Mexico and the United States, have seen gains with implementing bans on a regional or more basis.

  The trend to enforce legislation banning conversion is slowly picking up pace, with national governments and parliaments in Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Cyprus, Iceland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Portugal all in various states of pending legislation. At the same time, according to the Global Equality Caucus, Austria, Finland, Sweden and the United Kingdom have all expressed an intention to legislate bans.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 22:00

• FBI Improperly Used Surveillance Program To Spy On Jan. 6 Suspects
  FBI Improperly Used Surveillance Program To Spy On Jan. 6 Suspects

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The FBI abused its surveillance powers while spying on suspects in the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol and Black Lives Matter protesters, a federal court said in a newly unsealed ruling.

  

  FBI agents flaunted standards the agency developed for the Section 702 program, which enables spying on Americans and others, more than 278,000 times, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court said in the 2022 ruling, which was made public for the first time on May 19.

  Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act enables agencies like the FBI to collect information like emails without warrants from foreigners, even if they’re in the United States, and bars intentionally targeting Americans.

  The FBI developed its own standard for Section 702 searches, stating that queries “must be reasonably likely to retrieve foreign intelligence information, as defined by FISA, or evidence of a crime, unless otherwise specifically excepted.”

  But FBI agents have been violating the standard, the court has found, with the newest ruling disclosing hundreds of thousands of abusive searches in addition to those already known.

  The abusive searches include multiple improper queries targeting suspected or confirmed Jan. 6 suspects.

  In one instance, an analyst searched for information on 13 people suspected of being involved in the Capitol breach. The analyst “said she ran the queries to determine whether these individuals had foreign ties,” but the Department of Justice’s National Security Division (NSD) “concluded the queries were not reasonably likely to retrieve foreign intelligence information or evidence of crime,” the newly unsealed ruling states.

  In another case, widespread searches that in total consisted of more than 23,000 separate queries looked for information on presumed Americans to see whether the people were “being used by a group” involved in the breach.

  “The queries were run against unminimized Section 702 information to find evidence of possible foreign influence, although the analyst conducting the queries had no indications of foreign influence related to the query terms used,” the court said. “NSD assessed there was no specific factual basis to believe the queries were reasonably likely to retrieve foreign intelligence information or evidence of crime from Section 702 information.”

  Other Improper Searches

  The new ruling, released by the Office of Director of National Intelligence, also revealed that FBI personnel improperly surveilled a congressional campaign.

  An analyst conducted a so-called batch query, or a widespread query, for over 19,000 donors to the campaign. The analyst claimed the campaign was “a target of foreign influence,” but NSD officials found sufficient evidence for queries for just eight of the people who were queried.

  In another instance, a batch query was conducted on 133 people who were arrested “in connection with civil unrest and protests between approximately May 30, and June 18, 2020,” the time period during which people, primarily Black Lives Matter members and supporters, were protesting and rioting over the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

  “The query was run to determine whether the FBI had ‘any counter-terrorism derogatory information on the arrestees,’ but without ‘any specific potential connections to terrorist related activity’ known to those who conducted the queries,’” the court found. NSD said the queries violated the FBI standards, but the FBI disagreed, claiming there was a “reasonable basis to believe these queries ‘would return foreign intelligence” due to citations that were redacted.

  Additional 2020 violations included queries using variations of “political activist groups involved in organized protests;” 697 queries using identifiers on scheduled visits to a place or person that were redacted in the ruling; searches for at least 790 defense contractors that the FBI was considering requesting cooperation from; and at least 330 queries conducted using identifiers of employees of a company whose name was redacted, with the FBI claiming it might recruit the employees as sources.

  Multiple queries were run without obtaining an order from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, another violation of the law.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 21:30

• Visualizing The American Workforce As 100 People
  Visualizing The American Workforce As 100 People

  n 2022, the U.S. population stood at 333 million. Of that, roughly 60% were employed in various jobs, positions, and sectors in the U.S. economy.

  But where did all these people work? What jobs did they do and what positions did they hold? Where do most Americans do their nine-to-five?

  Using data from the National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates (2022) put out by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao reimagines the employed American workforce as only 100 people, to find out answers.

  Interestingly, the data contains a mix of information demarcations. Some are job-specific (type of work), some are based on position (like Management), and some are broken down by industry (Transport and Health).

  

  The Most Common Jobs In the U.S.

  By far, most of the American workforce (13 out of 100) are employed in Office & Administrative work. This includes a mind-boggling variety of jobs: receptionists, payroll clerks, secretaries, proof-readers, administrative assistants, and customer service representatives to name a few.

  Notably, any sort of management role is absent from this, as well as any other job categories, since the BLS categorizes managers in their own class.

  The industry which employs the second largest group of people is Health, accounting for 11 people from the 100. This category is a combination of two sectors listed in the original dataset (healthcare practitioners and healthcare support) and covers the entire industry: from physicians, surgeons, veterinarians, nurses, and therapists to technicians, assistants, orderlies, and home and personal care aides.

  Here’s a quick look at all the major sectors most of America’s workforce actually works in.

  Rank	Jobs	People	Examples
  1.	Office & Admin	13	Receptionists, Clerks, Customer service, Secretaries.
  2.	Health	11	Doctors, Nurses, Paramedics, Vets, Orderlies, Personal care aides.
  3.	Transport	9	Warehouse workers, Packagers, Pilots, Ambulance, Bus, Truck, Taxi drivers, Ship captains.
  4.	Sales	9	Sales representatives, Counter clerks.
  5.	Food	8	Food preparers & servers, Bartenders, Dishwashers, Hosts.
  6.	Management	6	Legislators, Chief executives, Directors, General & Operations managers.
  7.	Business & Finance	6	Accountants, Auditors, Financial analysts, Logisticians.
  8.	Manufacturing	6	Factory workers, Gas fitters, Machine operators, Cobblers, Tailors, Barbers.
  9.	Education	6	Teachers (all fields, all levels).
  10.	Construction & Extraction	4	Stone / brick / block / cement masons. Construction laborers. Roofers, Plumbers, Electricians, Mining workers.
  11.	Mechanics & Installation	4	Auto mechanic, Farm equipment mechanic, Home appliance mechanic, Locksmiths.
  12.	Data & Tech	3	Information analyst, Database architect, Software & Web developers, Data scientists, Mathematicians, Computer support.
  13.	Custodial	3	Cleaning, Groundskeeping, Landscaping, Housekeeping.
  14.	Protection	2	Cops, Firefighters, Security guards, Lifeguards, Correctional officers.
  15.	Hospitality	2	Animal trainers / caretakers. Ushers / attendants. Makeup artists. Concierge. Exercise trainers.
  16.	Architecture & Engineering	2	All engineers and architects (excluding the information industry).
  17.	Community & Social Service	2	Social workers, Therapists (counsellors) & Religious work.
  18.	Arts, Media, & Sport	1	Fine artists, Designers, Actors, Athletes, Journalists, Writers, Authors, Musicians.
  19.	Science	1	All scientists (not engineers).
  20.	Legal	1	Lawyers, Judges, Paralegals, Mediators.
  21.	Farming, Fishing, & Forestry	1	Farmers, logging workers.
  	Total	100

  The third most common job is actually a tie between Transport—cargo moving workers, pilots, truck drivers—and Sales—retail and industry sales agents, counter clerks—with both sectors employing nine of the 100 people. In the Sales category, two of the nine people are cashiers.

  Ranked fifth is Food, with eight people, ranging from private chefs to serving staff at fast food restaurants.

  Another six all belong in some kind of Management role (across industry, and including legislators) with two of those six being “top level executives” like a CEO, a general manager, a mayor, or university president. Management shares its spot with Business & Finance, Manufacturing, and Education, all at six each.

  The following jobs or industries also employ the same number of people:

  • Construction & Extraction along with Mechanics & Installation, at four each.

  • Data & Tech, with Custodial jobs, with three each.

  • Protection, Hospitality, Architecture & Engineering, and Social work, all at two each.

  • Artists & Athletes, Scientists, Legal, and Farming, Fishing & Forestry are all one each.

  Quirks of the Job Data

  From the numbers, some fascinating nuances of the American workforce are revealed. For example, there are more cashiers (2) in the economy than artists, writers, designers & athletes (1). There are the same number of customer service representatives as the entire Scientific and Legal fields put together (2).

  But perhaps the most interesting quirk comes from how few people are employed in the Farming, Fishing & Forestry industry, a critical primary sector. In raw data, the BLS estimates only slightly more than 450,000 farm, fish & forestry workers.

  Importantly, it’s worth noting the BLS only collects data from “nonfarm” establishments, explaining the low estimate for their category, which is almost one-sixth of what the USDA estimates. Please see the data note at the end of this article for a full explanation.

  Which Jobs Have the Highest Wages in the U.S.?

  Meanwhile, the top 20 highest paid jobs (by annual average wages) all belong to doctors (usually specialists or surgeons), with two exceptions: CEOs and athletes.

  The lowest-paid jobs are a mix of entertainers, and service and retail staff.

  As a broader category, however, Management makes the most money, followed by Legal and then Tech. Workers in Food, Health Support, and Custodial jobs have the lowest wages.

  Rank	Jobs	Annual Average Wages
  1.	Management	$131,200
  2.	Legal	$124,540
  3.	Data & Tech	$108,130
  4.	Health (Practitioners)	$96,770
  5.	Architecture & Engineering	$94,670
  6.	Business & Finance	$86,080
  7.	Scientists	$83,640
  8.	Arts, Media, Sports	$76,500
  9.	Education	$63,240
  10.	Construction & Extraction	$58,400
  11.	Community & Social Service	$55,760
  12.	Mechanics & Installation	$55,680
  13.	Protection	$54,010
  14.	Sales	$50,370
  15.	Office & Admin	$45,550
  16.	Manufacturing	$45,370
  17.	Transport	$43,930
  18.	Farming, Fishing, & Forestry	$37,870
  20.	Hospitality	$36,210
  19.	Custodial	$35,900
  21.	Health (Support)	$35,560
  22.	Food	$32,130

  Analyzing the data throws up a few correlations between number of employees and wages. The top three sectors with the most jobs (Admin, Transport, and Sales) are in the bottom 10 categories when it comes to pay.

  On the other hand, three sectors in the bottom 10 of employment numbers, (Data & Tech, Architecture & Engineering, and Legal) are in the top five highest paid sectors.

  The Health sector sees a big divide in pay between practitioners (doctors, nurses, therapists) ranked 5th and support staff (assistants, aides, & orderlies), ranked 21st, or second-to-last.

  How is the American Workforce Changing?

  Over the last five years, the American workforce has not stayed static. Of the listed 22 groups, 13 saw growth in employment numbers, nine saw a decrease, and one stayed flat since 2018.

  

  The top gainer by far is Health Support (medical assistants, care aides, orderlies, etc.) which grew by 65%. Looking at the timeline of growth does not paint a steady picture: employment jumped between 2018 and 2019, briefly fell in 2020, and has since risen again in 2021-2022.

  Another top gainer is Transport, rising from the 4th to 3rd biggest employer, beating out Sales in 2022. Business & Finance and Management have also seen steady increases since 2018.

  On the other hand Hospitality saw a staggering 48% drop in numbers, not all together surprising given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the rise of tech companies like Airbnb.

  Meanwhile, Office & Admin work saw a 15% loss in employees, even though this category is still the biggest employer in the country by a significant margin. Although jobs in this group saw steady declines from 2018-2021, it registered a slight uptick in workers between 2021 and 2022.

  Here’s a full list of top-level sectors and how they changed.

  Jobs	2018	2022	% Change (2018-2022)
  Health Support	4,117,450	6,792,310	+65%
  Transport	10,244,260	13,560,460	+32%
  Management	7,616,650	9,860,740	+29%
  Business & Finance	7,721,300	9,677,720	+25%
  Data & Tech	4,384,300	5,003,910	+14%
  Sciences	1,171,910	1,314,360	+12%
  Legal	1,127,900	1,216,600	+7%
  Community & Social Service	2,171,820	2,313,620	+7%
  Arts, Media, & Sports	1,951,170	2,063,380	+6%
  Health Practioners	8,646,730	9,043,070	+5%
  Mechanics and Installataion	5,628,880	5,823,400	+3%
  Construction & Extraction	5,962,640	6,075,520	+2%
  Protection	3,437,410	3,437,610	0%
  Custodial	4,421,980	4,316,350	-2%
  Architecture & Engineering	2,556,220	2,481,170	-3%
  Education	8,779,780	8,496,780	-3%
  Farming, Fishing, & Forestry	480,130	461,750	-4%
  Manufacturing	9,115,530	8,738,980	-4%
  Food	13,374,620	12,514,620	-6%
  Sales and Related	14,542,290	13,183,250	-9%
  Office & Admin	21,828,990	18,674,770	-15%
  Hospitality	5,451,330	2,835,650	-48%

  Looking ahead, questions about the future of the American workforce loom large, especially in the wake of the AI revolution that has swept imaginations, and quite possibly, soon the economy. People who hold administrative jobs—the largest category—are most vulnerable since many office tasks can be automated with increasingly sophisticated AI tools.

  Will AI be as dominating a factor as the Industrial Revolution on the global economy? Will it cause as big a shift as the offshoring of manufacturing from the U.S.?

  Or will AI blend seamlessly into the current make-up of the American workforce, merely enhancing productivity and profit?

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 21:00

• "It's Criminal": Central Wisconsin Communities Unite To Stave Off Looming Wind Turbine Industry
  “It’s Criminal”: Central Wisconsin Communities Unite To Stave Off Looming Wind Turbine Industry

  Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times,

  Central Wisconsin communities are coordinating efforts to shine a light into the flickering shadow cast by a looming wind turbine industry.

  “There is a revolt happening here,” attorney Marti Machtan told The Epoch Times. “I’ve never seen our communities engage like this in my life.”

  Machtan is a member of Farmland First, an organization that aims to facilitate discussion among community members concerned about reported coercive, predatory tactics used by industrial wind companies to manipulate landowners into signing their property rights away in the name of green energy.

  “These companies are sneaky about it,” Tom Wilcox— also a member of Farmland First and chairman of the Town of Green Grove in Owen, Wisconsin—told The Epoch Times. “They don’t want to come right out and say how this will work. In fact, part of the reason why people don’t know this is happening is farmers have to agree to keep their mouth shut on the details of the contract.”

  Wilcox is also on the Clark County Board of Supervisors and chairman of the Clark County Planning and Zoning.

  

  Marti Machtan and Tom Wilcox at a farm free of wind turbines in Wisconsin in 2023. (Courtesy of Tom Wilcox)

  This month, at least 13 central Wisconsin towns have passed health and safety ordinances setting the ground rules for companies seeking to build wind turbines up to 600 feet tall as close as 1,250 feet from their homes.

  The resolutions are written to mitigate the harm wind turbines have been reported to cause to people, their land, and their natural environment, including wildlife.

  Word spread after some community members openly discussed rejecting alluring offers with payoffs of over $1 million over 30 years to have a wind turbine built on their farm.

  However, Machtan argued that because turbine companies can exit the contract for any reason, the possibility of actually getting that amount wouldn’t be a safe bet.

  For Wilcox, there are too many unanswered questions, like how it works and what it does to property values.

  Initially, Wilcox said he held the attitude that people can do whatever they want with their farm.

  “But as I got further into this, I realized that these wind turbines aren’t at all good for the farming community,” Wilcox said. “As I got deeper, I realized just what kind of a sham this really is.”

  ‘Imbalanced, Unfair, One-Sided’

  Machtan has reviewed, negotiated, and drafted over a billion dollars worth of contracts with companies of various sizes.

  His assessment of the contracts between farmers and wind turbine companies like RWE Clean Energy, which has advanced into central Wisconsin, is as bad as he’s ever read.

  “I don’t think I’ve ever seen one that was more imbalanced, unfair, or one-sided to the benefit of the company and to the detriment of the farmer,” Machtan said.

  Many provisions in these contracts give more power to the wind company over the land than the property owner.

  The wind company can get out of the contract at any time for any reason, while the farmer must commit to a decade’s worth of encumbrances, Machtan said.

  “There are liability shifting provisions for the big multi-billion-dollar multinational companies that shift risks onto these farmers,” he said.

  There are also inadequate decommissioning standards, he added.

  “One of the things people are worried about is, because this type of energy production really doesn’t make sense over the long term, there’s the risk that farmers are going to be left holding the bag,” Machtan said.

  There’s no mutual sharing of opportunity and risk, Machtan said, leaving him to conclude that these aren’t green-energy projects.

  “This is financial engineering designed to shift risk on the farmers and our communities while providing large stable returns to private equity,” Machtan said. “What’s actually driving them is pension funds and other investors trying to get a stable return for their shareholders with as little risk as possible with the support of our federal and state government.”

  

  Cows stand in a field with wind turbines near Eldorado, Texas, on April 16, 2021. (Sergio Flores/AFP via Getty Images)

  The ESG Framework

  Electricity derived from wind is advertised as a clean departure from dependence on fossil fuels, the burning of which is argued to be the source of what some believe to be global warming.

  In 2021, President Joe Biden signed into law the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and in 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act, both of which incentivize federal and corporate investment in creating a renewable energy industry, a component of the environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) framework.

  Despite Biden’s proclamation that green energy companies would be domestically sourced, foreign shareholders and big banks are set to profit the most from these companies headquartered in the United States.

  The largest shareholder of RWE Clean Energy—a subsidiary of the German parent company RWE—is Qatar Holding LLC, headquartered in Qatar.

  “The maddening thing is that politicians can say, ‘American companies are investing in clean energy,’ and technically be telling the truth, but the parent companies or major investors or both are foreign,” Machtan said.

  A Health Hazard

  Just three years after wind turbines were installed in northeast Wisconsin in Brown County, they were declared a human health hazard by the county board of health in a unanimous vote in 2014, according to the Brown County Citizens for Responsible Wind Energy (BCCRWE).

  To date, the declaration hasn’t been rescinded.

  In 2015, former Brown County Health Director Chua Xiong ruled that there was insufficient evidence to link wind turbines to the illnesses reported by people who lived near the Shirley Wind Power, owned by Duke Energy.

  BCCRWE called for her resignation, alleging she based her conclusion on a “very flawed process by which submitted evidence was selectively reviewed and inconsistently weighed, or ignored altogether.”

  “The document demonstrates that Xiong’s evidence-review process was fraught with a multitude of failures of due diligence and that her resulting conclusion is without merit,” BCCRWE said.

  She resigned three months after her decision, according to a 2016 news report, to take another job.

  In a documentary produced by BCCRWE, Kevin Aschenbrenner, a former farmer, discussed how the wind turbines affected his livestock.

  Aschenbrenner lost all his cattle, he said, to injury and eventually death. Before that, they ceased producing milk.

  “It just got to the point where we just couldn’t survive anymore on the cattle, and we didn’t want to put the cattle through all of the effects they were getting off the turbines,” Aschenbrenner said.

  William Acker, an energy engineer, said in the documentary that those effects are caused by the pressure pulsations in the infrasound range, “which is basically inaudible noise.”

  “Infrasound is a very low hertz level noise—you can probably hear it in kids’ car stereos nowadays with a very loud booming noise that’s in the infrasound range,” he said. “Infrasound can be audible if the noise level is very high, but what we’re recording from the wind turbines is showing it to be, for the most part, in the inaudible range.”

  Families reported sleep disturbances, ear pain, headaches, dizziness, and chest pain.

  “There’s just a litany of symptoms that are universal; for example, they’re not just here in Shirley Wind, they’re all over the world,” said Jay Tibbetts, a now-deceased medical physician.

  BCCRWE spokesperson Steve Deslauriers told The Epoch Times that landowners—in being distracted by the money—miss the details of the contract that essentially robs them of their property rights and their community’s health.

  “Once you sign up your property, you lose control, not only of the exact placement of the turbines, but you also lose your ability to build, plant trees, and make decisions about the land you still own, but no longer control,” Deslauriers said.

  The companies feed on ignorance and greed, he said, using deceitful tactics.

  “Every time they go into a new community, they walk up to homes and say, ‘Hey, look, your neighbors are already signed up, and since you’re going to get the impacts anyway, you might as well sign up and get paid for it, too,” Deslauriers said. “They use that same playbook ever since they started in Wisconsin, signing up town officials and running over the townspeople.”

  What Deslauriers has seen in the past is companies offering proactive payments in which farmers could sign up their whole property, giving them monthly payments.

  “When the turbines are built, they get X number of dollars per turbine,” Deslauriers said.

  Now, at least from what he’s seen, landowners are being offered payment per megawatt.

  “To put it in perspective, the eight turbines at Duke Energy’s Shirley Wind Power are two-and-a-half megawatt turbines,” he said. “At the time, they were the largest turbines in the country in close proximity to homes. This led to three families being forced from their homes due to conditions in and around their homes. Now the payments look more attractive to landowners but have no doubt; this will lead to even more home abandonment in densely populated communities like ours.”

  The companies suggest that there’s such a good community presence that they’ve decided to minimize the risks and maximize the payments to landowners by putting up five- to six-megawatt turbines on their property, Deslauriers explained.

  “If you do the math on the money, what they throw at these farmers is just peanuts compared to what the companies make,” Deslauriers said. “No Invenergy executives live around a turbine. They sacrifice our families’ health for their wealth. These are the most horribly one-sided contracts you’ve ever seen.”

  In response to The Epoch Times’ request for comment, a spokesperson for Duke Energy said there’s no evidence that Shirly Wind Power is negligent about causing harm to its neighbors.

  “To the contrary of these allegations, court decisions over the past few years continue to support Duke Energy’s position on this issue,” the spokesperson said. “Duke Energy continues to be an important part of Brown County and Town of Glenmore communities endeavoring to work cooperatively as a contributor in a major way to support the residents in their furtherance of various community initiatives and acting consistently and responsibly as we progress towards our clean energy efforts.”

  

  Cows grazing near a wind turbine in Livermore, California, on May 16, 2007. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

  The Starbucks Rule

  In these rural areas where the wind turbines are targeted to be constructed, Machtan and others have pointed out that farmers lack adequate legal representation and understanding of the deceptive nature of the contracts.

  Farmers can be even more clouded by the money if they are struggling to stay afloat.

  In a “Tucker Carlson Originals” documentary, Kevon Martis, a Michigan-based zoning administrator who advocates against the building of wind turbines, explained “The Starbucks Rule.”

  “Never try and site a wind project within 30 miles of a Starbucks coffee shop,” Martis explained. “The demographic that’s willing to pay a premium price for quality coffee is the same demographic that typically has the education and financial wherewithal to organize and resist irresponsible wind projects.”

  Companies see these rural areas like Wilcox’s township as an easy target because they are low-income, which translates to them as people desperate for revenue.

  Wilcox said he discovered northeastern Clark County was labeled as an economically depressed area when looking for federal grants for broadband.

  “There are extra subsidies involved if companies build these projects in those regions,” Wilcox said.

  However, when wind turbine projects are proposed in wealthy areas such as Nantucket Sound, politicians with homes in that area quickly shut the project down.

  “People who look at some of these wind proposals figure out quickly that one of the reasons their community is being targeted is it’s poor, and they’re perceived as being desperate for revenue,” Martis said in the documentary. “They just think we’re a bunch of rubes and hicks out here.”

  ‘It Only Gets Worse’

  Different people have different objections to what potentially might take place if the turbines are built in Wilcox’s township, he said.

  For many with whom he’s spoken, the destruction of the endangered bald eagle and other birdlife concerns them, he said.

  Clean energy companies like RWE have been granted what’s called an incidental take permit, which is used under the U.S. Endangered Species Act to protect these companies from liability when endangered wildlife is harmed.

  “They have an incidental take permit that basically says, ‘When an eagle flies into the turbine and gets killed, we’re sorry, but we’re not liable,’” Wilcox said. “It always interests me that some people latch on to this portion of it.”

  Though there aren’t a lot of eagles in the area, Wilcox said they’d like to keep the ones they have.

  “But to have an industrial wind complex come in and kill more eagles than I’ve seen in a year, that’s really troubling for us,” he said.

  

  An eagle’s nest found in a Central Wisconsin township in 2023. (Courtesy of Tom Wilcox)

  For others, it’s about the aesthetics, he said.

  “We have beautiful sunsets here in central Wisconsin, and occasionally you can see the northern lights,” Wilcox said. “But if you have a spinning wind turbine with that flashing red light, it’s going to detract from that aspect of life.”

  Others latch onto the complaint about decreased property values caused by the turbines, he said.

  If given a choice between a farm with a turbine and a farm without, buyers prefer going without, he said.

  People look at the cost benefits—how much the company is potentially going to make compared to how much the landowner will make.

  Then there is the shadow flicker, the movement of the shadow from the turbine passing through people’s homes in a steady but dizzying rhythm.

  “People say you can pull the blinds, but why should you pull the blinds in your home for something you didn’t even want in the first place and aren’t getting any benefit from?” Wilcox asked. “And, of course, when you go outside, it only gets worse.”

   

  A sunset over a central Wisconsin township in 2023. (Courtesy of Tom Wilcox)

  ‘It’s Criminal’

  According to Deslauriers, because of state legislation lobbied for by the turbine companies, municipalities have been stripped of the power to prohibit the construction of wind turbines in their townships through zoning regulations.

  “The legislature took the power away, and the state of Wisconsin promulgated rules that said towns could not make rules any stricter,” he said. “Now, if you’re a village or city, you can exercise home rule and say no, but rural towns cannot.”

  That authority is with the state through the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin (PSC), Deslauriers said, which writes the rules allowing turbine companies to ignore property rights and the health of families.

  “This leaves communities to focus their fight on the devastating health and safety impacts,” Deslauriers said.

  Townships pay a heavy price just to fight the projects, Deslauriers said.

  “The money that we went through locally to stop it last time was an incredible expense for blue-collar families,” Deslauriers said.

  Still, they keep fighting, with little sign of relief from lawmakers on either side of the aisle.

  “The rules that have been put in place are the worst statewide rules in the country,” he said. “It’s the small individual communities that are bearing the massive cost to fight these international wind companies.”

  Lawmakers—both Republican and Democrat—refuse to return the power to regulate wind development to the communities where impacts are felt, he said.

  “These communities have been left to use their very limited resources to fight these guys with all their might, and it’s bankrupting people,” Deslauriers said. “Wind developers leave families split, neighbors fighting, and communities broken. It’s criminal.”

  The Epoch Times contacted RWE Clean Energy, Invenergy, and PSC of Wisconsin for comment.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 20:30

• Is Self-Defense Becoming Illegal?
  Is Self-Defense Becoming Illegal?

  Authored by Joshua Philipp via The Epoch Times,

  If someone you love were threatened, or physically attacked, do you have the right to defend them? And even more so, when police are being defunded and when criminals are being released on the streets, do you have a right to protect yourself?

  

  Do you have to just let things happen?

  Must you just watch while innocent people are victimized by criminals?

  Well, that’s the question currently on trial in New York.

  That’s the case of Jordan Neely.

  Now, if you read most news outlets on the left, you’ll hear the 30-year-old black man was a street performer and Michael Jackson impersonator.

  You’ll also hear that his friends said he was a sweet kid, and that he later suffered from mental disabilities and became homeless.

  If you read news outlets on the right, you’ll hear that he was arrested 42 times between 2013 and 2021.

  In 2015, he was convicted of trying to kidnap a 7-year-old girl in Inwood, Queens, and was sentenced to four months in jail. Then, in 2021, he was arrested for punching a 67-year-old woman in the face as she exited a subway train in New York’s East Village, breaking her nose and fracturing her orbital bone.

  He pleaded guilty, and while facing 15 months in an alternative-to-incarceration program, he skipped his court date, and had a warrant out for his arrest since February.

  Both sides of Neely’s story are true. He was a talented dancer who suffered from mental problems, and had become a criminal menace. The New York justice system repeatedly let him off the hook. Even outside of his arrests, people were posting online about personal experiences of being threatened or attacked by Neely.

  And then, on May 1, Neely was allegedly threatening passengers on a New York subway car until a former U.S. Marine intervened; he restrained Neely with a chokehold while two other men helped subdue him. After Neely lost consciousness, the men placed Neely in a recovery position, and yet, Neely died.

  Nobody was initially charged. Video of the incident, which was limited to when Neely had already been restrained, was quickly picked up by political actors to play into the country’s race narratives.

  Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) of New York wrote on Twitter a couple days later that “Jordan Neely was murdered.” She claimed he was “houseless and crying for food in a time when the city is raising rents and stripping services to militarize itself while many in power demonize the poor.”

  She said it was “disgusting” that the man who allegedly killed Neely wasn’t charged.

  Others on the far left came forward also to criticize the case as being about race, and to suggest that justice was needed, although, even among Democrats, not everyone was in agreement.

  The political attacks sounded like a dog whistle to radical groups in New York. There were no major protests like those that were common with the Black Lives Matter summer riots a few years back, although a few dozen protesters went viral when they jumped on the subway tracks and forced a Q train to slam on its brakes.

  It also turned out the protesters weren’t grassroots protesters. They were with an organization called Voices of Community Activists and Leaders, which has funding from billionaires including Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg through the FWD.us Education Fund, and radical left billionaire George Soros through his Open Society Foundations.

  It also turned out that the radical organization that staged the subway protest had previously teamed up in other protests with the Young Communist League of the Communist Party USA.

  The outright communist group also was involved in the Neely protests, and stated in a tweet, “Thank you to all our comrades who answered the call today! We’re just getting started!”

  The communist connection to the staged protests brings the whole incident full circle, right back to Ocasio-Cortez being the frontrunner in calling for charges in the case. Justine Medina, a former AOC aide, is a member of the executive committee of the New York State Communist Party, and is co-chair of the New York Young Communist League. That’s the same group that staged the subway protest.

  The People’s World website notes, “Justine Medina is a co-chair of the New York Young Communist League. She’s also been involved in Democratic Socialists of America and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s campaigns for Congress.”

  So let’s dig into this…

  • Soros finances the campaigns of radical district attorneys who let criminals off the hook.

  • A criminal is killed by people defending themselves when the city’s justice system fails.

  • A radical Congress member, whose political campaign was notably assisted by a media network with funding from Soros, comes out and calls for arrests.

  • Then, a radical group funded by Soros stages a protest, while being backed by a communist group tied to that same politician, also calling for arrests.

  Seems to be a lot of overlap here.

  Regardless of the Soros “above and below” strategy at play, former U.S. Marine Daniel Penny was arrested in Neely’s death. He’s now facing a felony charge of second-degree manslaughter, although he holds that he acted in self-defense.

  So is this really about crime, then? Is it really about justice? Or is it about something else? Well, it’s not clear. But what we can say is that the narratives aren’t lining up. Many politicians who called for Penny’s arrest were simultaneously criticizing the use of justice. They were noting that young men are being sent to prison, when, in reality, many just need help. Yet, they did this while also calling for Penny to be sent to prison.

  Others were more direct. Others suggested this may not be about manslaughter, or about justice, or even about mental health. Instead, they’re saying this is about race.

  New York Mayor Eric Adams flip-flopped on that point. He first criticized AOC for claiming that Penny murdered Neely. Then, Adams brought race-based narratives to the case.

  For conservatives, it’s not about race. Instead, it’s about whether you’re allowed to defend yourself. The case has become a symbol of what’s wrong with defunding the police, and about whether people are being selectively prosecuted, based not on crime, but on the color of their skin.

  When people such as Adams make it about race, other people start wondering if the case would be treated differently if race wasn’t an issue.

  That’s partly why people like musician Kid Rock donated $5,000 to Penny’s defense fund, criticized New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg, and declared that Penny is a hero. It’s why even politicians such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are getting on board to fundraise for Penny.

  And it’s also why people are now bringing up the idea of self-defense. Al Sharpton, for example, was stating that if Penny wasn’t charged, it would encourage others to become vigilantes.

  This is the point where many cities in the United States find themselves. The common view, at least among conservatives, is this: Police have been made unable to do their jobs, the courts appear to have a swinging door, and violent individuals such as Neely are allowed to attack, harass, and generally menace people.

  So, if nobody will protect you, what are your options? Even if you see others being attacked or harassed, should you do anything to help them? Should you allow them to be attacked? Or do you want to risk going to prison simply for stepping up to help?

  In 2021, we watched in shock at what took place in the Philadelphia area, when a woman was raped on a train. Passengers did nothing to help her. They listened to her cries, and they allowed it to happen. It raised the question of what we become as a society if people don’t stand up against evil, what happens when good people don’t come forward? And even more so, what will we become when good people aren’t allowed to intervene?

  In the natural world, self-defense is written into the DNA of life. Even bugs have the means to defend themselves. Nearly every creature on earth has been given by God a means to defend itself, whether claws, or teeth, or stingers, or other means.

  Humans create tools, like swords and guns, to defend ourselves. And this has held true throughout all human history. The right to self-defense is the right to life. And the right to guard life is one the main pillars of law.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 19:30

• Exxon Crushes Progressive Dreams That "Net Zero" Has Any Chance By 2050: It Would Mean Collapse In "Global Standard Of Living"
  Exxon Crushes Progressive Dreams That “Net Zero” Has Any Chance By 2050: It Would Mean Collapse In “Global Standard Of Living”

  In a world of suffocating snowflakery, ESG hypocrisy and, well… Tranheuser Busch, a corporation telling the truth without fear of reprisals from the Open Society-funded virtue signaling cabal is rarer than an mRNA-injected, genetically engineered hen’s teeth. And yet that’s what the company hated by every progressive, Exxon Mobil, did this week when it became the first corporation to denounce the insidious and laughable claims that “net zero” is even a remote possibility by 2050.

  The US supermajor pushed back against investors pressing the company to report on the risks to its business from restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions and potential environmental disasters when in a reply to proxy advisor Glass Lewis, Exxon said the prospect of the world achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 is remote and should not be further evaluated in its financial statements.

  A shareholder proposal seeking a report on the cost of having to abandon projects faces a shareholder vote on May 31. Glass Lewis backed the initiative, concluding Exxon could face material financial risks from the net-zero scenario.

  Exxon disagreed, and said the world is not on a path to achieve net-zero emissions in 2050 as limiting energy production to levels below consumption demand would lead to a spike in energy prices, as observed in Europe following oil sanctions against Russia over Ukraine.

  Exxon, is of course, correct however that won’t stop the green fanatics from beating the drum that somehow the world can transition to “green” energy (at a cost of some $150 trillion mind you) in the next 27 years without an energy cataclysm. 

  At the heart of the issue is the 2050 net-zero emissions (NZE) scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA) which envisions a path to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. For the NZE scenario to be met, the IEA had hilariously said new oil exploration would have to have stopped in 2021 and nations would have to switch to renewable energy from fossil fuels (good luck with that). Exxon is among the companies heavily investing in new exploration to generate oil and gas for decades to come, and in retrospect, one can thank their deity of choice for Exxon’s decision to do so as opposed to sending the world back into the dark ages, an outcome which so many from the World Economic Forum seems to aspire to.

  “It is clear that the IEA NZE does not, by the scenario authors’ own assessment, meet the level of likelihood required to be considered in our financial statements,” Exxon said in a response filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.

  “It is highly unlikely that society would accept the degradation in global standard of living required to permanently achieve a scenario like the IEA NZE,” Exxon said in dismissing the proposal.

  

  Exxon also rebutted the woke proxy firm’s recommendation that it evaluate the impacts of a worst-case oil spill at its offshore Guyanese oil platforms. Exxon leads a consortium responsible for all of Guyana’s offshore oil production and its board has recommended against the proposal.

  “The requested report clearly would not provide new, decision-useful information,” Exxon said, adding the shareholder request “ignore(s) the time, additional cost, and resources every report takes for the company to prepare.”

  As for the IEA, instead of targeting those companies – which despite every effort by the senile US president to drain the US SPR and make the country once again dependent on outside energy sources – are doing everything in their power to retain US energy independence, perhaps it should bring its message to downtown Beijing. We are confident that China will listen to their pimply teenager-inspired “proposals” in a cool, calm and collected manner.

  

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 19:00

• G-7 Leaders Respond To China’s Economic Bullying At Hiroshima Summit, Warn Of 'Consequences'
  G-7 Leaders Respond To China’s Economic Bullying At Hiroshima Summit, Warn Of ‘Consequences’

  Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Economic security was a major focus on the second day of the Group of Seven (G-7) summit in Hiroshima, with leaders outlining actions to counter Beijing’s “economic coercion” and non-market practices.

  The G-7 countries—the United States, the UK, Japan, Canada, Germany, France, and Italy—announced on May 20 their plan to address the “disturbing rise in incidents of economic coercion.”

  “We will work together to ensure that attempts to weaponize economic dependencies by forcing G7 members and our partners, including small economies to comply and conform will fail and face consequences,” the G-7 leaders’ statement on economic security read.

  “We express serious concern over economic coercion and call on all countries to refrain from its use.”

  

  National security advisor Jake Sullivan, who briefed reporters on May 20 on the sidelines of the G-7 Summit, said the leaders agreed to deploy “a common set of tools” to confront China’s economic coercion.

  “These economic security tools will include steps to build resilience in our supply chains. They will also include steps to protect sensitive technology, like export controls and outbound investment measures,” Sullivan said.

  However, the leaders are emphasizing that their goal is to de-risk, not decouple from China.

  “Our policy approaches are not designed to harm China nor do we seek to thwart China’s economic progress and development,” according to the G-7 Summit communique released on May 20.

  “A growing China that plays by international rules would be of global interest. We are not decoupling or turning inwards. At the same time, we recognize that economic resilience requires de-risking and diversifying.”

  Leveraging Economic Power

  In recent years, China has increased its efforts to leverage its economic might to force political change around the world.

  For example, after Australia called for an independent investigation into the origins of COVID-19 in April 2020, the communist regime announced trade sanctions on select Australian products.

  

  The Chinese regime’s economic coercion of Australia has served as a “wake-up call” to other countries, Liz Truss, the UK’s Foreign Secretary at the time, warned.

  There have been other instances of Chinese coercion in the past, including with Japan, which saw Chinese shipments of rare earth metals blocked due to a territorial dispute in 2010. South Korea faced business boycotts from China in 2017 after installing a U.S. missile defense system. And recently, Beijing retaliated against Lithuania after it attempted to strengthen ties with Taiwan.

  China has recently pressured U.S. companies as well. For example, in reaction to the United States placing export bans on advanced semiconductors, Beijing launched a probe into memory chip company Micron. Furthermore, in March, Chinese police stormed the Beijing office of Mintz Group, an American due diligence firm, and detained five Chinese citizens working for the company. Later, Chinese police questioned employees at the Shanghai branch of Bain & Co., an American consulting firm.

  UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak warned about China’s growing economic coercion.

  “We should be clear-eyed about the growing challenge we face. China is engaged in a concerted and strategic economic contest,” Sunak said in his remarks before the meeting on May 20.

  To address these issues, the G-7 leaders have announced the formation of a new “G7 Coordination Platform on Economic Coercion.”

  The new platform “will address the growing and pernicious use of coercive economic measures to interfere in the sovereign affairs of other states,” Sunak said.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 18:30

• Lawmakers Scrutinize Executive Bonuses At Collapsed Banks
  Lawmakers Scrutinize Executive Bonuses At Collapsed Banks

  After several years during the pandemic in which bonuses exploded higher, reality is once again bearing down on the Wall Street gravy train, as regulators target banker paydays in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s blowup and the ensuing regional banking chaos that followed. 

  Democratic lawmakers are scrutinizing executives at Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank and the pay and bonuses they earned in the time leading up to each banks’ respective implosion, Bloomberg wrote in a wrap up this week. 

  Bloomberg notes that during a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Thursday, lawmakers including Martin Gruenberg, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Michael Barr, vice chair for supervision at the Federal Reserve, and Michael Hsu, acting head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency targeted adopting new incentive-based compensation rules. 

  The rules were originally products of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act with the purpose of discouraging risk-taking in the banking sector. 

  

  Such risk taking led to a tsunami of withdrawals from Silicon Valley Bank, which now infamously saw more than $40 billion in deposits pulled from the bank in just a matter of hours. The pace of withdrawals “took regulators by surprise”, Bloomberg wrote, leading to the banks being taken over by the government. 

  Meanwhile, former executives from the banks have retained bonuses they “earned” in their time leading up to the collapse. They have attested that they didn’t mismanage risk, but rather that (1) the Fed put the banks in an “unprecedented” position, as SVB’s CEO testified in front of congress this week and that (2) contagion from other collapses were to blame. 

  In other words, it’s everybody’s fault but the banking executives who put their banks in such precarious positions to begin with.

  Democratic Senator Christopher Van Hollen said this week: “The bank executives manipulated profits in a way to increase their risks and made no changes to the compensation structure to account for that risk.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 18:00

• Biden Administration's New Mortgage Policy: Unjust And Dangerous
  Biden Administration’s New Mortgage Policy: Unjust And Dangerous

  Authored by Andy Matthews via RealClear Wire,

  One of the essential lessons most of us are taught early in life is the importance of developing a sense of financial responsibility.

  

  Work hard to earn a good paycheck. Don’t spend more than you can afford. Save for the future.

  Eventually, following these steps will land you in a position where you can afford some of the nicer things life has to offer. Behaving in a financially responsible way isn’t always fun in the moment – but it’s well worth it when you get to reap the rewards of your good decisions later on, as you’re able to enjoy more and more of the things you want and need.

  It’s one of the most fundamental principles of our society, and it’s also rooted in one of the basic realities of human nature: Incentivize good behavior, and you’ll get more of it.

  But what happens when the incentive structure becomes inverted? We’re about to find out, because that’s what’s going to occur thanks to a new Biden administration policy that took effect on May 1.

  The new Federal Housing Finance Agency policy will force those with good credit scores to pay more for their mortgages each month, with those extra payments used to subsidize the loans of higher-risk borrowers. Experts say that homebuyers with credit scores of 680 or higher will now pay roughly $40 per month more on a home loan of $400,000, with those who make down payments of 15 to 20% hit with the highest fees. It amounts to a tax increase on the middle class, and it’s atrocious in every way imaginable.

  For starters, it is fundamentally unjust and absurd to impose a policy that punishes those who have acted responsibly, sacrificed, and worked hard toward a secure financial future for themselves and their families. That’s why I was honored to join a coalition of 34 state financial officers from around the country, led by Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity, in signing a letter to the Biden administration voicing opposition.

  But this new policy is more than simply unfair. It’s also deeply reckless. The 2008 financial crisis and mortgage meltdown offered a painful lesson in what happens when government intervenes to push those who cannot afford a home loan to take one and to undermine the critical role that credit scores play in assessing a prospective borrower’s risk level. My home state of Nevada was hit the hardest by that crisis, suffering under the highest rates of foreclosures and unemployment in the entire nation. And Nevadans will once again be put in a position of exceptional vulnerability under the Biden administration’s new policy.

  For its part, the administration defends its policy on the grounds that it’s simply trying to close a gap in house ownership between higher- and lower-income Americans. The administration also anticipates some political gain through what is merely the latest of its many wealth redistribution schemes.

  But while increasing opportunities for home ownership is a laudable goal, the right way to accomplish this is by taking steps to eliminate unnecessary regulations, reduce inflation, and bring down energy costs – not to subvert basic market principles to political considerations.

  If political advantage is what the Biden administration is indeed expecting here, they may be in for a harsh surprise. The more Americans learn about this new policy, the more they are rightly outraged and insulted that the administration would adopt a plan that perversely punishes responsible behavior and removes Americans’ incentives to manage their finances wisely and prudently.

  The administration should reverse course immediately.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 17:30

• "Deep Level Of Corruption": Gen. Flynn Condemns FBI Following Durham Report
  “Deep Level Of Corruption”: Gen. Flynn Condemns FBI Following Durham Report

  Retired US Army Gen. Michael Flynn says that the United States needs to address the corruption revealed in the Durham report released on Monday.

  

  “What people need to really stay focused on is this deep, deep level of corruption in our federal government, particularly starting in the White House,” Flynn told NTD News‘ “Capitol Report” host Steve Lance.

  Durham’s report detailed corruption at the highest levels of the FBI to use a Clinton Campaign-funded propaganda dossier they knew was a hoax, in order to take down – and then smear, Donald Trump and his campaign.

  The report concluded that “neither U.S. law enforcement nor the Intelligence Community appears to have possessed any actual evidence of collusion” between the Trump campaign and Russia. The report also notes that on Aug. 3, 2016, a White House meeting between former President Obama, then-VP Joe Biden, former AG Loretta Lynch, then-CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI Director James Comey – where Brennan briefed those in the room about Clinton’s plan to undermine Trump by tying him to Russian election interference efforts.

  In response to the Durham report, the FBI said that it had taken corrective action to address the issued raised.

  Flynn says it’s BS.

  “They weren’t missteps, those were criminal acts by the highest levels of people in our FBI and other elements and other people inside of the Department of Justice,” he told NTD News. “And today that problem is not fixed. Look at what we’re learning from the whistleblowers.”

  Flynn then pointed to the FBI’s plan to infiltrate Catholic churches and other organizations in order to root out “radical-traditionalist Catholic” ideology, after a document was leaked from the FBI’s Richmond Field Office describing the endeavor. The agency has since disavowed the record, saying that it “does not meet the exacting standards” of the bureau.

  “This assault on Catholics, as an example—that’s just one example, the assault on Catholics and on the Latin Mass. I mean, that little thing alone that’s out of the Richmond office of the FBI, by the special agent in charge there,” said Flynn. “These are not things that are minor things. These are big, big deals. That’s just one example, you know, in addition to the politicization and the weaponization of the FBI that’s being additionally brought out by these whistleblowers, and it’s still ongoing.”

  Flynn thinks both FBI Director Chris Wray and Attorney General Merrick Garland are unfit to serve.

  “And I think that impeachment proceedings need to start at the highest levels of our government, and I think it needs to start right behind the Roosevelt desk in the Oval Office,” Flynn said, referring to Biden.

  The retired three-star general also weighed in over an alleged accounting error of up to $3 billion in Ukraine aid.

  “The Pentagon, always, always overestimates everything. I don’t care whether it’s food, ammunition, people, battlefield operations, battlefield casualties, they always, always overestimate,” said Flynn. “In this case, because of the scrutiny that we have, by the American people right now on everything going on from this government, particularly everything going on over in the Ukraine, they needed to, they should have done a far better job before they actually put the data together.”

  While he sees this accounting issue as part of a larger trend, Flynn said this particular accounting error has caught people’s attention because of how much money U.S. taxpayers have already given to Ukraine. -NTD

  “If it was $3 million, maybe even $30 million, nobody would—we wouldn’t be having this conversation, but $3 billion, you know, that kind of money, when you break it down to the American people—the American people are just, they’re livid about $170 billion going over to Ukraine, and God knows where it’s going, and it doesn’t look like things are going well in the war over there,” said Flynn. “So a $3 billion oversight. So now it’s like, ‘Well, where is it?’ So is there going to be investigation? Well I’m sure there will be, and then we’ll never hear anything else about it, and come to find out—it’ll be one of those dollar amounts that somebody basically walked away with.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 17:00

• Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch Shreds Lockdown Authoritarianism
  Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch Shreds Lockdown Authoritarianism

  Via the Brownstone Institute,

  In a statement made today on a case concerning Title 42, Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch breaks the painful silence on the topic of lockdowns and mandates, and presents the truth with startling clarity.

  

  Importantly, this statement from the Supreme Court comes as so many other agencies, intellectuals, and journalists are in flat-out denial of what happened to the country. 

  [T]he history of this case illustrates the disruption we have experienced over the last three years in how our laws are made and our freedoms observed.

  Since March 2020, we may have experienced the greatest intrusions on civil liberties in the peacetime history of this country. Executive officials across the country issued emergency decrees on a breathtaking scale. Governors and local leaders imposed lockdown orders forcing people to remain in their homes.

  They shuttered businesses and schools public and private. They closed churches even as they allowed casinos and other favored businesses to carry on. They threatened violators not just with civil penalties but with criminal sanctions too.

  They surveilled church parking lots, recorded license plates, and issued notices warning that attendance at even outdoor services satisfying all state social-distancing and hygiene requirements could amount to criminal conduct. They divided cities and neighborhoods into color-coded zones, forced individuals to fight for their freedoms in court on emergency timetables, and then changed their color-coded schemes when defeat in court seemed imminent.

  Federal executive officials entered the act too. Not just with emergency immigration decrees. They deployed a public-health agency to regulate landlord-tenant relations nationwide.They used a workplace-safety agency to issue a vaccination mandate for most working Americans.

  They threatened to fire noncompliant employees, and warned that service members who refused to vaccinate might face dishonorable discharge and confinement. Along the way, it seems federal officials may have pressured social-media companies to suppress information about pandemic policies with which they disagreed.

  While executive officials issued new emergency decrees at a furious pace, state legislatures and Congress—the bodies normally responsible for adopting our laws—too often fell silent. Courts bound to protect our liberties addressed a few—but hardly all—of the intrusions upon them. In some cases, like this one, courts even allowed themselves to be used to perpetuate emergency public-health decrees for collateral purposes, itself a form of emergency-lawmaking-by-litigation.

  Doubtless, many lessons can be learned from this chapter in our history, and hopefully serious efforts will be made to study it. One lesson might be this: Fear and the desire for safety are powerful forces. They can lead to a clamor for action—almost any action—as long as someone does something to address a perceived threat. 

  A leader or an expert who claims he can fix everything, if only we do exactly as he says, can prove an irresistible force. We do not need to confront a bayonet, we need only a nudge, before we willingly abandon the nicety of requiring laws to be adopted by our legislative representatives and accept rule by decree. Along the way, we will accede to the loss of many cherished civil liberties—the right to worship freely, to debate public policy without censorship, to gather with friends and family, or simply to leave our homes. 

  We may even cheer on those who ask us to disregard our normal lawmaking processes and forfeit our personal freedoms. Of course, this is no new story. Even the ancients warned that democracies can degenerate toward autocracy in the face of fear.

  But maybe we have learned another lesson too. The concentration of power in the hands of so few may be efficient and sometimes popular. But it does not tend toward sound government. However wise one person or his advisors may be, that is no substitute for the wisdom of the whole of the American people that can be tapped in the legislative process.

  Decisions produced by those who indulge no criticism are rarely as good as those produced after robust and uncensored debate. Decisions announced on the fly are rarely as wise as those that come after careful deliberation. Decisions made by a few often yield unintended consequences that may be avoided when more are consulted. Autocracies have always suffered these defects. Maybe, hopefully, we have relearned these lessons too.

  In the 1970s, Congress studied the use of emergency decrees. It observed that they can allow executive authorities to tap into extraordinary powers. Congress also observed that emergency decrees have a habit of long outliving the crises that generate them; some federal emergency proclamations, Congress noted, had remained in effect for years or decades after the emergency in question had passed.

  At the same time, Congress recognized that quick unilateral executive action is sometimes necessary and permitted in our constitutional order. In an effort to balance these considerations and ensure a more normal operation of our laws and a firmer protection of our liberties, Congress adopted a number of new guardrails in the National Emergencies Act.

  Despite that law, the number of declared emergencies has only grown in the ensuing years. And it is hard not to wonder whether, after nearly a half-century and in light of our Nation’s recent experience, another look is warranted. It is hard not to wonder, too, whether state legislatures might profitably reexamine the proper scope of emergency executive powers at the state level. 

  At the very least, one can hope that the Judiciary will not soon again allow itself to be part of the problem by permitting litigants to manipulate our docket to perpetuate a decree designed for one emergency to address another. Make no mistake—decisive executive action is sometimes necessary and appropriate. But if emergency decrees promise to solve some problems, they threaten to generate others. And rule by indefinite emergency edict risks leaving all of us with a shell of a democracy and civil liberties just as hollow.

  Justice Neil Gorsuch’s opinion in Arizona v. Mayorkas marks the culmination of his three-year effort to oppose the Covid regime’s eradication of civil liberties, unequal application of law, and political favoritism. From the outset, Gorsuch remained vigilant as public officials used the pretext of Covid to augment their power and strip the citizenry of its rights in defiance of long standing constitutional principles. 

  While other justices (even some purported constitutionalists) absconded their responsibility to uphold the Bill of Rights, Gorsuch diligently defended the Constitution. This became most apparent in the Supreme Court’s cases involving religious liberty in the Covid era. 

  Beginning in May 2020, the Supreme Court heard cases challenging Covid restrictions on religious attendance across the country. The Court was divided along familiar political lines: the liberal bloc of Justices Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan voted to uphold deprivations of liberty as a valid exercise of states’ police power; Justice Gorsuch led conservatives Alito, Kavanaugh, and Thomas in challenging the irrationality of the edicts; Chief Justice Roberts sided with the liberal bloc, justifying his decision by deferring to public health experts. 

  “Unelected judiciary lacks the background, competence, and expertise to assess public health and is not accountable to the people,” Roberts wrote in South Bay v. Newsom, the first Covid case to reach the Court. 

  And so the Court repeatedly upheld executive orders attacking religious liberty. In South Bay, the Court denied a California church’s request to block state restrictions on church attendance in a five to four decision. Roberts sided with the liberal bloc, urging deference to the public health apparatus as constitutional freedoms disappeared from American life. 

  In July 2020, the Court again split 5-4 and denied a church’s emergency motion for injunctive relief against Nevada’s Covid restrictions. Governor Steve Sisolak capped religious gatherings at 50 people, regardless of the precautions taken or the size of the establishment. The same order allowed for other groups, including casinos, to hold up to 500 people. The Court, with Chief Justice Roberts joining the liberal justices again, denied the motion in an unsigned motion without explanation. 

  Justice Gorsuch issued a one paragraph dissent that exposed the hypocrisy and irrationality of the Covid regime. “Under the Governor’s edict, a 10-screen ‘multiplex’ may host 500 moviegoers at any time. A casino, too, may cater to hundreds at once, with perhaps six people huddled at each craps table here and a similar number gathered around every roulette wheel there,” he wrote. But the Governor’s lockdown order imposed a 50-worshiper limit for religious gatherings, no matter the buildings’ capacities. 

  “The First Amendment prohibits such obvious discrimination against the exercise of religion,” Gorsuch wrote. “But there is no world in which the Constitution permits Nevada to favor Caesars Palace over Calvary Chapel.”

  Gorsuch understood the threat to Americans’ liberties, but he was powerless with Chief Justice Roberts cowing to the interests of the public health bureaucracy. That changed when Justice Ginsburg died in September 2020.

  The following month, Justice Barrett joined the Court and reversed the Court’s 5-4 split on religious freedom in the Covid era. The following month, the Court granted an emergency injunction to block Governor Cuomo’s executive order that limited attendance at religious services to 10 to 25 people. 

  Gorsuch was now in the majority, protecting Americans from the tyranny of unconstitutional edicts. In a concurring opinion in the New York case, he again compared restrictions on secular activities and religious gatherings; “according to the Governor, it may be unsafe to go to church, but it is always fine to pick up another bottle of wine, shop for a new bike, or spend the afternoon exploring your distal points and meridians… Who knew public health would so perfectly align with secular convenience?”

  In February 2021, California religious organizations appealed for an emergency injunction against Governor Newsom’s Covid restriction. At the time, Newsom prohibited indoor worship in certain areas and banned singing. Chief Justice Roberts, joined by Kavanaugh and Barrett, upheld the ban on singing but overturned the capacity limits.

  Gorsuch wrote a separate opinion, joined by Thomas and Alito, that continued his critique of the authoritarian and irrational deprivations of America’s liberty as Covid entered its second year. He wrote, “Government actors have been moving the goalposts on pandemic-related sacrifices for months, adopting new benchmarks that always seem to put restoration of liberty just around the corner.” 

  Like his opinions in New York and Nevada, he focused on the disparate treatment and political favoritism behind the edicts; “if Hollywood may host a studio audience or film a singing competition while not a single soul may enter California’s churches, synagogues, and mosques, something has gone seriously awry.”

  Thursday’s opinion allowed Gorsuch to review the devastating loss of liberty Americans suffered over the 1,141 days it took to flatten the curve.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 16:30

• Musk Demands AP Back Claims Or Retract Article Over 'Unchecked' Stolen Election Tweets
  Musk Demands AP Back Claims Or Retract Article Over ‘Unchecked’ Stolen Election Tweets

  Elon Musk has told AP to put up or shut up – after the outlet published an article alleging that “false claims of a stolen election thrive unchecked on Twitter,” refuting Musk’s claims during a CNBC interview that such claims would be fact checked on the platform.

  

  “Either back up your claims @AP with actual source data or retract your story,” Musk tweeted on Friday.

  Either back up your claims @AP with actual source data or retract your story

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 19, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The May 18 article written by Ali Swenson, who previously worked at a Magneto-funded fact checking nonprofit, the Center for Public Integrity, cites the CNBC interview in which Musk said that claims of stolen election on Twitter “will be corrected, 100 percent.”

  Musk was responding to host David Faber, who asked about Twitter users claiming that the 2020 election was “rigged” or “stolen” and whether such tweets would be tagged with a community note or face other actions.

  “To be clear, I don’t think it was a stolen election,” Musk replied, with the caveat that he believes there was some election fraud.

  “By the same token, if somebody is going to say that there is never any election fraud anywhere, this is obviously false. If 100 million people vote, the probability that the fraud is zero—is zero,” he added, before noting that it’s important to strike a balance in discussions regarding election integrity.

  🚨BREAKING: Elon Musk Does NOT Believe 2020 Election Was Stolen

  In an interview with David Faber, Elon Musk, made a significant statement by expressing his belief that the 2020 election was not stolen.

  This statement goes against the claims made by some who allege fraud in the… pic.twitter.com/SwN4uen115

  — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 16, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Regardless, people in America are allowed to question the outcome of elections – like Democrats did in 2016 when Hillary Clinton kicked off her self-pity tour – so CNBC and AP and the rest of them can pound sand with that little purity test.

  According to the Associated Press article, since former President Donald Trump held a CNN town hall in which he reiterated his claims that the 2020 election was stolen, such claims have spread on Twitter.

  “Yet many such claims have thrived on Twitter in the week since former President Donald Trump spent much of a CNN town hall digging in on his lie that the 2020 election was ‘rigged’ against him,” reads Swenson’s article, which provides no evidence. “Twitter posts that amplified those false claims have thousands of shares with no visible enforcement, a review of posts on the platform shows.”

  The article cites media intelligence from firm Zignal Labs, which claims without evidence to have identified the 10 most widely shared tweets promoting a “rigged election” narrative following the town hall.

  “While Twitter has a system in place for users to add context to misleading tweets, the 10 posts, which collectively amassed more than 43,000 retweets, had no such notes attached,” AP claimed – again without evidence.

  More via the Epoch Times,

  In his town hall appearance on CNN, Trump reiterated his view that the 2020 election was stolen.

  The former president said that he performed “fantastically” in 2020, doing “far better” than in 2016 with 12 million more votes.

  “When you look at that result and when you look at what happened during that election, unless you’re a very stupid person, you see what happens,” Trump said before adding that he believes the election was “rigged.”

  “That was a rigged election, and it’s a shame that we had to go through it. It’s very bad for our country. All over the world, they looked at it, and they saw exactly what everyone else saw,” Trump said.

  Donald Trump reaffirms his position on the 2020 election being stolen 🗳️ pic.twitter.com/DF0Ne0j3KR

  — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 11, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  He pointed to the Twitter Files disclosures as an indication of apparent collusion between the FBI and Twitter to suppress the Hunter Biden laptop story in the run-up to the election, which Trump said, “made a big difference.”

  The seventh installment of the Musk-endorsed Twitter Files claimed that there was an “organized effort” on the part of federal law enforcement to target social media companies that reported on the explosive Hunter Biden laptop story, which was first published by the New York Post.

  Hunter Biden Laptop Story

  In the run-up to the 2020 election, the New York Post published a story about a laptop abandoned at a computer repair shop that purportedly belonged to Hunter Biden and contained emails suggesting that then-candidate Joe Biden had knowledge of, and was allegedly involved in, his son’s foreign business dealings.

  The New York Post’s story titled “Smoking-gun Email Reveals How Hunter Biden Introduced Ukrainian Businessman to VP Dad” was published on Oct. 14, 2020.

  Twitter first prevented sharing of the story for 24 hours before reversing the decision. However, the story did not circulate on the platform for weeks because of a policy requiring the original poster to delete and repost the original tweet.

  Polling has indicated that if the public had been aware of the suppressed story ahead of the election, it may have cost then presidential candidate Joe Biden several percentage points of voters—possibly enough to thwart his bid for the White House.

  “In Twitter Files #7, we present evidence pointing to an organized effort by representatives of the intelligence community (IC), aimed at senior executives at news and social media companies, to discredit leaked information about Hunter Biden before and after it was published,” wrote author Michael Shellenberger, who released screenshots on Dec. 19, 2022, that appeared to show message exchanges between top Twitter officials and the FBI in October 2020.

  The FBI told The Epoch Times in an earlier emailed statement that it had only offered general warnings to Twitter about foreign election interference and never pushed for the platform to suppress the Hunter Biden laptop story.

  Former Twitter executives have conceded that they made a mistake by blocking the Hunter Biden laptop story but denied that they were pressured to suppress the story by law enforcement.

  However, documents filed with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) show that the FBI warned Twitter explicitly of a “hack-and-leak operation involving Hunter Biden” ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

  Twitter’s former head of site integrity Yoel Roth made the remarks in a signed declaration (pdf) attached to a Dec. 21, 2020 letter to the FEC’s Office of Complaints Examination and Legal Administration on behalf of Twitter.

  Roth said in the attached declaration that he was told by the FBI at a series of meetings ahead of the 2020 election that the agency warned of the threat of hacked materials being distributed on social media platforms.

  “I was told in these meetings that the intelligence community expected that individuals associated with political campaigns would be subject to hacking attacks and that material obtained through those hacking attacks would likely be disseminated over social media platforms, including Twitter,” Roth stated in the declaration.

  “I also learned in these meetings that there were rumors that a hack-and-leak operation would involve Hunter Biden,” Roth added.

  Roth said that Twitter’s Site Integrity Team determined that the New York Post’s articles about the laptop violated the platform’s policies on hacked materials and Twitter took action to suppress the distribution of posts sharing the articles.

  He later acknowledged that it was a mistake for Twitter to suppress the Hunter Biden laptop story.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 16:00

• Counter-Disinformation: The New Snake Oil
  Counter-Disinformation: The New Snake Oil

  Authored by Tom Wyatt via Racket News,

  The San Diego Convention Center was packed with the defense industry elite. Boeing, Northrup Grumman, Booz Allen Hamilton, and a myriad of other arms industry salesmen, hungry to peddle their wares. WEST Conference 2023 is billed as the “premier naval conference and exposition on the West Coast.” A collective of military leaders and titans of the defense industry, intermingled in incestuous harmony.

  

  It was a world with which I was well acquainted. After all, I had spent the past fifteen years in the Navy as a Special Warfare Boat Operator, using tools and weapons built by these very defense companies. My call to service came unexpectedly at the tail end of my high school senior year. I left for bootcamp on Valentine’s Day, 2007, and immediately entered the world of Naval Special Warfare upon completion. While the rest of my graduating class received tutelage at universities around the country, mine came by way of the military elite. Over a decade and a half, I received an education in Special Reconnaissance, Unconventional Warfare and tradecraft.

  Many of the friends and former colleagues I met along the way now worked for these defense contractors, and perhaps, in another life, I’d be a participant in this conference. As it turned out, I was there as a spectator only.

  I watched as a sea of suits and lanyards moved in waves throughout the lobby outside the convention floor. Thousands of exhibitors and participants waited in line to get their credentials, exchanging cards and networking as they sized up the competition. As I surveyed the crowd, I noticed something familiar in the attendees’ faces. There was a look of out-of-place discomfort. Tattoos peeking out of cuffs and collars of the business attire their bodies seemed to be rejecting. It was the look of the defense industry’s freshman class, those who had just made the leap from serving in the armed forces to being arms proliferators.

  The conference embodied the idea of the military industrial complex’s self-licking ice cream cone structure. There was no discernible line between merchandiser and consumer, just a single organism supporting itself.

  In 2021, the Revolving Door Project released a report titled “The Military-Industrial-Think Tank Complex: Conflict of Interest at the Center for a New American Security,” that trained a troubling spotlight on one of the most prominent defense-minded think tanks. 

  According to its website, the Center for a New American Society (CNAS) “is an independent, bipartisan, nonprofit organization that develops strong, pragmatic, and principled national security and defense policies.” The defense industry-funded group claims to “elevate the national security debate” by providing innovative research to policymakers and experts in the field. But given the whiff of defense industry influence around the organization, its high-level engagement with Washington’s most powerful figures raises numerous red flags. 

  A major point of concern presented by the Revolving Door Project, was, ironically CNAS’ own revolving door. According to the report, there are “16 CNAS alumni who have been selected for foreign policy and national security policy-making positions in the Biden administration.” Among them: Avril Haines, a former CNAS Board of Directors member who became Biden’s Director of National Intelligence in 2021, and Colin Kahl, the current Undersecretary of Defense Policy, a former CNAS Senior Fellow. 

  The report also includes instances of the think tank pushing agendas that directly benefit its membership, such as the collusion between CNAS and the United Arab Emirates to promote relaxed restrictions for exporting US drones. Not surprisingly, CNAS board member Neal Blue’s company, General Atomic, had an existing contract worth nearly $200 million with the UAE for drone production. The report reads:

  CNAS receives large contributions directly from defense contractors, foreign governments, and the US government; publishes research and press material that frequently supports the interests of its sponsors without proper disclosure; and even gives its financial sponsors an official oversight role in helping to shape the organization’s research.

  WEST 2023 offered yet another venue for private companies to seek out such connections, pushing an agenda that “supports the interests” of the defense industry–a kind of speed dating for the military industrial complex. And while the familiar mechanisms of war, like drones and submarines, were on display, the spotlight was on weapons of the information space.

  Panel after panel featured cybersecurity and electronic warfare experts giving discussions on information operations, artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities. The conference seemed to embody the new horizon for the defense industry: Information Warfare. 

  Counter-Terrorism to Great Power Competition

  “In hindsight, we should’ve never taken our eye off the Great Power Competition,” the counter-disinformation expert said, referring to the historical focus on traditional preparation for conflict against countries like China and Russia. Her mastery of the subject was honed over a decade through the study of forensic psychology and counter-extremism strategies. She had worked across the public and private sectors, countering the dangerous narratives of violent extremists.

  At the end of World War II, the power that had previously been distributed across multiple nations was now consolidated by the US and Soviet Union. American foreign policy entered the era of Great Power Competition (GPC), a contest for global dominance and influence pitting the two former allies in a Highlander-style deathmatch to see who prevailed as the one true superpower. After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US focused on maintaining this strategic edge, until a decade later when the towers fell. 

  After 9/11, the US reoriented its foreign policy around a new acronym: GWOT (Global War on Terror). The Spy vs. Spy tactics of the Cold War were obsolete now that the deadly effects of adversarial narratives had been demonstrated. While propaganda used by the Soviet Union (and the US, for that matter) was aimed at deceiving, disrupting and undermining the adversary, terrorist organizations focused their messaging campaigns on radicalization, targeting at-risk Muslim communities into armies of holy warriors. 

  The seemingly archaic, global network of radical Islamists tapped into the far-reaching technology of the world wide web to spread their message and indoctrinate would-be jihadists. To combat this ideological plague, the US began crafting counter-messaging tools and methodologies, giving birth to what would become an updated version of a counter-disinformation industry that had existed as far back as 1942, when Voice of America began broadcasting counter-narratives into Nazi Germany. These efforts ranged from a “whac-a-mole” style process of detecting and eliminating terrorist propaganda to enlisting moderate Muslim leaders to push a counter-message.

  

  It’s no revelation that you can’t carpet bomb an ideology, so while the concept of fighting extremist narratives online to tamp down on global terrorism seems logical on its face, according to the industry expert I interviewed, “In practice, it’s not very effective.” 

  This sentiment was affirmed by another expert in countering extremist narratives, Caroline Moreno, who formerly ran the counter-terrorism training program at the FBI Academy in Quantico, VA. “Counter messaging, when it comes from the US government, loses its credibility,” said Moreno. 

  It is understandable, in an unfamiliar world of ideology-based violence and radicalization, that some trial and error would occur along the path to understanding such a complex adversary. Tactics, of course, are developed over time and situationally based. Before 9/11, the military was focused on the most logical adversary, a conventional state actor, but had to adapt to the irregular warfare landscape of counter-terrorism operations.

  The operators and ground-pounders on the frontlines get a real-world education in the necessary fluidity of such tactics, but the military monolith is often slow to adopt lessons gleaned from battle. To further complicate the matter, there are always plenty of defense industry opportunists promoting their tactics as dogma, such as the failed “hearts and minds” approach to counterinsurgency, further setting back any notion of catching up with the current threat, and the shift from the war on terror to the GPC has only exacerbated this strategic buffering. 

  The shift from counter-terrorism to GPC occurred long before the official end of the GWOT. Although some within the defense and intelligence communities saw the writing on the wall for some time, the declared pivot came in 2018 with the new National Defense Strategy, issued by then Secretary of Defense James Mattis.

  

  “Long-term strategic competitions with China and Russia,” the guidance reads,” are the principal priorities for the Department [of Defense].”

  The Pentagon, in other words, was announcing plans to take us back to a Cold War mindset. In a space-race type fashion, we would need to outfox the competition in arms, technology and influence in order to maintain our world power monopoly. Unfortunately, our drawdown in the Middle East and the swan song of the war on terror would mean a natural decrease in the defense budget, hampering any lofty dreams of competition.

  Unless, of course, the new threat required a level of spending generally associated with kinetic warfare. A little thing like the absence of active armed conflict shouldn’t stop the growth of the defense industry. And in that spirit, the Pentagon’s budget reached its highest level last year, a whopping $816 billion. 

  A Brief PRIMER on Information Operations

  During my final six years of service, in a move that seemed to parallel the national defense strategy, I shifted from Counter-Terrorism focused special boat operations to conducting sensitive intelligence activities aimed at the Great Power Competition. Our task was to clandestinely prepare the battlespace, establishing an operational environment that would give us an advantage in the event of a hot war, but more importantly, shaping the environment so that our adversary couldn’t do the same. Our best tool in this endeavor was Information Operations.

  A Joint Chiefs of Staff publication on Information Operations, Joint Publication 3-13, reads:

  Information Operations (IO) are described as the integrated employment of electronic warfare (EW), computer network operations (CNO), psychological operations (PSYOP), military deception (MILDEC), and operations security (OPSEC), in concert with specific supporting and related capabilities, to influence, disrupt, corrupt, or usurp adversarial human and automated decision making while protecting our own.

  I’d left this world behind when I found myself at WEST 2023. Now a mere observer of the military industrial complex, I picked up a copy of Signal to orient myself to the occasion. Signal is the official magazine of the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, or AFCEA, one of WEST 2023’s many sponsors. In fact, the conference had so many sponsors that it developed a funder caste system, segregating the donors into categories such as Premier, Platinum, Gold and Silver. 

  Amongst defense heavyweights Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, was a lesser-known company down in the silver category named Primer. Primer is one of the many artificial intelligence and machine learning-focused companies orbiting the defense industry. Aside from AT&T, the silver sponsors blended together in an indistinguishable list of obscure defense contractors, and perhaps Primer would’ve remained obscure, too, had the company not acquired Yonder, an Austin, Texas-based “information integrity” company.

  Primer had already entered the disinformation space, in 2020, when it won a Small Business Innovation Research, or SBIR, contract with the Air Force and Special Operation Command, SOCOM, to develop the first machine learning platform to automatically identify and assess suspected disinformation. This evolution into the disinformation world was fully realized with its 2022 acquisition of Yonder, an “information integrity” company focused on detecting and disrupting disinformation campaigns online.

  Yonder, originally New Knowledge, rose to prominence when they co-authored a report to the Senate Intelligence Committee on Russian influence campaigns leading up to the 2016 Presidential election. Ironically, New Knowledge’s own foray into election meddling would make them a household name. During the 2017 Alabama Senate race, New Knowledge’s CEO, Jonathon Morgan, created a fake Facebook page and Twitter “botnet” with the intent of persuading votes for the Democratic candidate. 

  “We orchestrated an elaborate ‘false flag’ operation that planted the idea that the Moore campaign was amplified on social media by a Russian botnet,” said an internal document from Morgan’s project. 

  In another bit of controversy, New Knowledge, in the wake of the alleged Russian election meddling of 2016, helped develop a disinformation dashboard with the German Marshall Fund’s Alliance for Securing Democracy, or ASD. The dashboard, named Hamilton 68, acted as a repository for supposed Twitter accounts linked to Russian influence operatives, with access limited to a select few. This was ASD’s golden tablet, and only journalists and academics could wield the seer stone. 

  Unfortunately for all involved, including the media who treated the information as gospel, the dashboard proved most successful at identifying overzealous conservatives from middle America. This legacy, and all its implications, came part and parcel with Yonder’s acquisition.

  In Primer’s catalog of machine learning products, Yonder is billed as a tool capable of identifying bad actors and narrative manipulation — Primer’s very own weapon against Information Operations. 

  Disinformation, propaganda, active measures — whatever you call it, the name of the game is Information Operations, or IO. In a war where battles are left of boom–where the strategy is to manipulate the information landscape to gain a competitive advantage over your adversary–a cat-and-mouse-like game develops.  But with the advent of the internet, and its compounding stores of information, the task of determining what is real and what is fake is too much to ask of us mere mortals. Thus the need for a Yonder-style solution.

  “I’m not a fan of the term disinformation,” the counter-disinformation expert said. 

  The statement came as a bit of throat clearing for the industry expert, as she digressed into a brief indictment of the trade she very much believes in.

  “It’s been politicized. Even though disinformation has a distinct definition, it’s now being used as a label for any unwelcome information that someone doesn’t like, even when that information is true.” 

  A new industry has developed out of the great disinformation scare. A mishmash of government, academic and private industry experts, come together to identify what is true, and what isn’t. Or at least their idea of what they would like to be true and not true. 

  Most, if not all, countries dabble in information manipulation, not to mention non-state tricksters and deception artists, so it makes sense that you would need a cross-functional team of experts for such an undertaking. And given the implications of an information governing body, a kind of truth authority, you would damn well expect that all parties involved would be aboveboard.  

  But…

  “Any industry has hucksters,” the expert said.

  The term huckster, perhaps because of its old world feel, brought to mind a scene from the Clint Eastwood film The Outlaw Josey Wales:

  The camera pans across a dusty frontier town as a carpetbagging salesman in a white suit holds the attention of a crowd, proselytizing about his magic elixir.

  “What’s in it?” a man from the crowd asks.

  “Ehh…I don’t know, various things. I’m only the salesman,” the man in the white suit replies.

  He looks the salesman up and down.

  “You drink it,” the man says as he walks off.

  The man in white looks shaken by the question. He recomposes himself before returning to the crowd.

  “Well, what can you expect from a non-believer?”

  Enter the New Snake Oil Salesman

  “You can charge more if you call it information operations,” said one veteran, working in commercial Information Operations. He asked that I not reveal the company he works for but needless to say, it is one of the many government contracted companies peddling AI driven counter-disinformation products.

  His voice was flat with a dry, matter of fact delivery. There was no surprise in this revelation, not for him at least.

  “And the higher the clearance level [of the project], the more money.”

  The second part was less surprising. Anyone familiar with government contracts will share my lack of shock. It has been my experience that government contracts are reliably unreliable. The only thing you can count on is a cronyistic leveraging of relationships within the Department of Defense (DOD). 

  One former Primer employee referred to this as the “kabuki theater”: A vague request from the government, limited by over-classification and reluctance to “give too much away,” followed by a lavish set of promises from the contract winner, despite not having the specificity to deliver a quality product. These hollow requests make it impossible for the company to even know if they can deliver their empty promises. 

  “We need a machine learning tool, capable of dissecting media posts to identify and catalog state sponsored disinformation,” a DOD contracting officer might say to a Primer account executive. 

  “What systems will this work on?” the account executive asks.

  “Classified ones.”

  “Can we have access to them? It will help us.”

  “Nope, classified.”

  “Can we at least…”

  “Nope. Here’s $10 million, good luck!”

  The end result is just what you’d expect: an overly expensive useless doodad. Any oversight from the requesting agency is unlikely to catch this before it’s too late, given they rarely have the technical expertise to know what they are asking for in the first place. 

  “I don’t even use my company’s products,” the IO expert said, “I don’t find any of it useful.”

  Even though his work is in information operations, he says it is more akin to public relations than traditional IO, just layered in secrecy for effect. This was not the first time I’d heard the comparison to the PR/ marketing world. As a matter of fact, the counter-disinformation expert suggested that many of the tools marketed to counter disinformation are simply recycled marketing products. Companies use social listening software, designed to analyze consumer wants by monitoring their online behavior, and marketing tools to construct the perfect narrative to sell their product. So to detect “bad” narratives, one only has to reverse engineer the process.

  “Marketers use these types of social listening tools to understand who their target audience is, how to best reach them, and how best to craft a viral message. Analysts can use them to understand how state-sponsored messages traverse across the internet, hopping from platform to platform, and if they’re resonating with target audiences,” the counter-disinformation expert said.

  So what? Many popular products were originally meant for some other use. Viagra was supposed to lower blood pressure, now it just redirects it. What’s the problem in finding a secondary use for a product that already exists? Nothing, provided you don’t make outlandish claims about the “new” product.

  “With Yonder, you can slice through streams of social media to gain contextual intelligence on narratives – including their authenticity and likely trajectory of amplification…Understanding the intent, affiliations, and influence of adversarial networks provides you with critical insight into emerging topics and events before they go viral.”

  Other companies in the counter-disinformation industry, like Graphika, Two Six Technologies and PeakMetrics, make similar claims using comparable marketing terminology for their AI driven products. It turns out, however, that regardless of the efficacy of these tools, the Defense Department is not equipped to handle them.

  “The tech solutions aren’t all that great,” the IO expert said. “The DOD isn’t advanced enough, doesn’t have the infrastructure to keep up with the contracted solutions”. The bureaucracy of DOD acquisitions leaves the military in a perpetual state of obsolescence, always behind the powercurve of technology and innovation of their defense industry counterparts.  

  “The US is doing a shit job at [countering] disinformation,” the IO expert said, in another bit of optimistic revelation.

  One problem is the lack of organization in the effort. While government agencies like the Department of State’s Global Engagement Center (GEC) claim to “direct, lead, synchronize, integrate, and coordinate U.S. Federal Government efforts to recognize, understand, expose, and counter foreign state and non-state propaganda and disinformation,” the reality is a scattered series of efforts across the government and private entities. This resulting chaos is exacerbated by the fact that the GEC is largely staffed by Foreign Service Officers and contractors, who typically don’t have a background or deep understanding of IO or disinformation.

  There are, of course, actual IO professionals in the space, both on the government and private side of things. These subject matter experts are a hot commodity in the task saturated world of the counter-disinformation industry, but that doesn’t mean that any IO hack can make the grade. To ensure they get the very elite, the industry has stringent requirements: X number of years as an IO expert, an active Top Secret security clearance, SCIF (sensitive compartmentalized information facility) access, and, of course, the ever-important connections to the right people. What you end up with is a small pool of the same industry experts, playing a game of musical chairs from place to place, ensuring the same entrenched mindset manifests across all aspects of the industry.

  A Collective Paranoia

  The military is a paranoid organization. If you need proof, look no further than the posters plastered all over military installations.

  “Loose lips…might sink ships,” reads one poster.

  “He’s Watching You,” reads another. 

  The paranoia, however, is justifiable in many instances. Being the most powerful military inspires competition, and competition can be ugly. Espionage, sabotage and propaganda are always on the menu of adversary tactics to deceive and compromise.

  The modern disinformation scare has, no doubt, exacerbated this paranoia. Healthy suspicion, the kind that keeps the evildoers at bay, sometimes turns toxic, resulting in operational paralysis and rampant mistrust, setting off a chain of reactionary measures run amuck. Since the military is reactive by nature, only really employed when there is a tangible threat, our tactics to disrupt the flow of disinformation are inherently reactive as well. 

  It is due to this failed strategy that the counter-disinformation expert recommends a more proactive approach to countering, or more appropriately, preventing the fallout from potential disinformation campaigns. Her recommendations: media literacy and civic engagement. 

  A more critical media consumer, although hard to imagine at the moment, isn’t a bridge too far, yet the civic engagement angle seems to be. As skeptical as people are of the media, it pales in comparison to the distrust many Americans have for the government. But rather than entertain ideas of how to rebuild that trust, and possibly embolden local leaders and everyday citizens to take ownership of their relationship with the information they ingest and propagate, Washington seems content with deflecting the blame onto a third party.  But for any of it to work, the two recommendations would need to be approached in tandem.

  “The majority of actions in the ‘proactive’ realm revolve around making people aware of the potential for misleading/manipulated information and encouraging them to engage critically with the content they consume,” the expert explains.

  To support her claim, she directs attention to Taiwan, who reportedly receives more fake news than any other country. Rather than succumb to the overwhelming disinformation campaign, or use artificial intelligence to detect and dismantle it, Taiwan employs the counter-disinformation experts’ proactive strategy.

  To achieve this, Taiwan partners with Non-Government Organizations, or NGOs, to promote early age media literacy, which the Ministry of Education has incorporated into its teaching guidelines, along with creating fact checking tools for messaging apps and social media. It is hard to know whether these tools are any more successful than the myriad of ones offered by the burgeoning counter-disinformation industry, but Taiwan’s proactive measures signal a move in a better direction. 

  

  Perhaps initiatives like this, employed in the US and globally, can put an end to the counter-disinformation industry. It is, after all, beginning to show cracks. The recent dismantling of the Misinformation, Disinformation and Malinformation subcommittee, the murky remnants of the Department of Homeland Security’s failed Disinformation Governance Board, indicates a possible sea change. No doubt a more malevolent entity will take its place, but maybe, just maybe, this represents a retreat from the manic steps towards an Orwellian nightmare.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 15:30

• 2023: Echoes Of 1973
  2023: Echoes Of 1973

  Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

  So what’s changed? Everything, but mostly beneath the surface churn of circus and theater.

  2023 is echoing 1973 in potentially consequential ways.. It’s not just one year, of course; the entire era from 2019 echoes the era that started in 1969, when the second-order effects of postwar policies finally started kicking in.

  Consider these similarities / echoes:

  1. Major shifts in global capital and trade flows that attracted little notice start to matter in terms of currency valuations, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy and geopolitics: check.

  2. After decades of modest inflation, inflation not only rises but is sticky rather than transitory: check.

  3. Major shifts in the power structure of global oil markets: check.

  4. Cultural and social shifts become divisive, reaching destructive extremes: check.

  5. A global superpower is ensnared in a hot war in which the other side is supplied by a superpower rival: check.

  6. Political scandals upend the cozy arrangements of political elites: check.

  7. A new wave of geopolitical rivalries arise between allies and rivals alike: check.

  8. Stock and bond markets keep rallying like nothing’s changed, but since things have changed, each rally fails: check.

  Let’s focus on #8: market participants continue assuming that the past 15 years are an accurate guide to the next 15 years, unable or unwilling to face the enormity of the changes that have already occurred in the fundamental structures of state and private-sector finance and the economy. (I discuss these in my book Global Crisis, National Renewal.)

  These shifts guarantee the next 15 years will not follow the low-risk scripts of the past 15 years. I’ve explained here many times that systems have their own dynamics, and so they don’t respond to our desires or opinions or our policy tweaks. No matter how many policy tweaks you throw at diminishing returns, for example, returns still diminish–though you can mask this reality temporarily behind extremes of stimulus and other financial sleight of hand.

  Tightly bound systems, i.e. highly centralized systems, unravel far more abruptly than loosely bound systems, no matter how many fiscal or monetary policy tweaks you throw at the system.

  Path dependency and dependency chains direct what happens next and constrain policy options no matter how many policy tweaks you throw at the system.

  Emergent systems exhibit characteristics that are different from those exhibited by each of the component systems. This means that we can combine financial “innovations” that generate X and economic policies that generate Y and end up with Z (for example, the whole shebang collapses in a heap.) What If the Whole Shebang Unravels?

  Emergent systems exhibit characteristics that are different from those exhibited by each of the component systems.no matter how many policy tweaks you throw at the system because policy tweaks don’t actually add any meaningful feedback loops or change the tightly bound centralized system. All the tweaks can do is modify a parameter here or there–meaningless to the fundamental dynamics of the system as a whole.

  What’s different now is our ability to make realistic assessments has effectively collapsed. As a society and economy, we only seem capable of careening between two states:

  1. Complacency / denial

  2. Panic

  Neither are useful in problem-solving. Rather, both are toxic to problem-solving. Not only do we face an inter-connected tangle of emergent problems, we’ve frittered away our institutional and cultural ability to make realistic assessments, solve the problems in practical, pragmatic ways and agree to share the necessary sacrifices to get the train back on the tracks.

  The loss of our collective ability to solve problems means every problem is now unresolvable. The systems dynamics that will play out in the next 15 years are beyond our feeble control, our feeble understanding and our hubristic blindness to our own incapacity to actually solve difficult real-world problems that demand steep costs and long-term sacrifices.

  Note that stocks topped out in April 1973 and then crashed for a couple of years. It’s May 2023, but given the 50-year time span, that maps almost perfectly.

  

  The world has changed, but punters and speculators are still chasing the same old sectors, plays and strategies. They will continue to do so, very like for a decade or so, as in the 1970s, until they’ve exhausted their capital or have given up and exited the casino with whatever they still own.

  Governments, meanwhile, will do whatever it takes to protect their powers and elites, so the rules will change overnight and what was sacrosanct yesterday is today illegal. Those who exited the previous era with fortunes will find targets have been drawn on their backs (just ask Jack Ma how this works).

  Niceties such as “ownership”–such a slippery term, actually–will be jettisoned as essential resources are expropriated, along with the wealth parked by foreigners, and any other tempting stashes of concentrated capital.

  

  So what’s changed? Everything, but mostly beneath the surface churn of circus and theater. There is no ideal historical script that tracks the present exactly, but in rough outline, the 1970s might prove remarkable useful as a guide.

  *  *  *

  My new book is now available at a 10% discount ($8.95 ebook, $18 print): Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.  Read the first chapter for free (PDF)

  Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 15:30

• Russia Issues List Of 500 Americans Under Sanctions, Including Obama & Stephen Colbert
  Russia Issues List Of 500 Americans Under Sanctions, Including Obama & Stephen Colbert

  Russia has hit back at the International Criminal Court (ICC) after in March it issued a warrant for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which quickly resulted in a handful of European countries saying they would willingly enforce it if Putin ever landed in their territory.

  Moscow has now issued its own arrest warrant for top prosecutor at the Hague-based court Karim Khan. Russia’s Interior Ministry even officially added his photograph and file to its “wanted list” in the ministry’s database on Friday. This came also amid travel sanctions announced against a massive list of Americans and top officials.

  

  Khan is a citizen of the United Kingdom, and Russia previously warned he was being investigated for “criminal prosecution of a person known to be innocent” – a reference to Putin and the ICC’s arrest warrant. 

  However, the new wanted notice didn’t specify Khan’s offense. These tit-for-tat warrants are of course largely symbolic, but could possibly make international travel plans a matter of extra planning and caution, given Khan is now effectively banned from ever entering (or perhaps flying over) Russian territory, where he would be arrested.

  The ICC warrant against Putin, at the same time, makes the possibility of diplomacy and dialogue ever more distant. 

  Russia has also just announced a massive and growing list of Americans barred from ever entering the country, as The Washington Times details: 

  Former President Barack Obama, late-night television hosts, lawmakers and journalists, including from The Washington Times, are among “500 Americans” that Russia has banned from entering the country.

  Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the move was made “in a response to the regularly anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the Joe Biden administration.” 

  The Foreign Ministry said the list – which includes 45 members of the U.S. House, Sens. J.D. Vance of Ohio, Katie Britt of Alabama and Eric Schmit of Missouri – was composed of people who spread Russophobia, and supplied Ukraine with arms.

  Jeffrey Scott Shapiro, a columnist and commentary section editor at The Washington Times, was among the blackballed members of the media. Nick Paton Walsh, a CNN reporter and British citizen, was on the list.

  Late-night comedians Jimmy Kimmell, Stephen Colbert and Seth Meyers are also on the list, along with former US Ambassador Jon Huntsman.

  Barack Obama among 500 US nationals banned from entering Russia https://t.co/nBu2aZ7gS2 pic.twitter.com/QvfuVnrAVl

  — Citizen TV Kenya (@citizentvkenya) May 20, 2023

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Currently, President Biden and other world leaders are meeting in Hiroshima, Japan for the G7 summit, where Ukraine’s President Zelensky is present as well. High on the agenda is freshly expanded Russian sanctions, and discussions underway over how to further punish Moscow for the Ukraine war.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 15:00

• Energy Commissioner Warns Of 'Major Threats' To Power Grid
  Energy Commissioner Warns Of ‘Major Threats’ To Power Grid

  Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Hope is a powerful energy, but it won’t keep the air conditioner on when summer temperatures soar and demand for electricity skyrockets, causing an overburdened electrical grid to grind to a stop.

  

  Yet that seems to be the Biden administration’s plan in addressing warnings that nine North American regional electrical grids face an “elevated risk” of power outages this summer, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Commissioner Mark Christie maintains.

  “I take it as, ‘We hope we can through the summer. We think we have a chance if the weather is normal,’” he said during a May 18 FERC meeting. “We hope we get all good news this summer.”

  Christie was critiquing the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Policy & Innovation and Office of Electric Reliability responses to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)’s annual summer reliability assessment that forecasts brown-outs and black-outs across two-thirds of North America between June and September if there are “wide-area” heat waves, drought, and wildfires.

  NERC, a not-for-profit public-private entity staffed with industry representatives, provides the DOE and state regulators with reliability assessments of the electrical grid from Canada to northern Mexico.

  The commission is a subsidiary of FERC, which regulates transmission, pipelines, and interstate wholesale prices of electricity and natural gas.

  The FERC board consists of five appointed members with one seat currently vacant. There are two Democrats, including Chair Willie Phillips, and two Republicans, including Christie, who was appointed to the commission by President Donald Trump in 2018.

  

  Non-Synchronous Problem is the Solution

  In its assessment, NERC cites the “changing resource mix” driven by Biden’s goal to “decarbonize” the U.S. electrical grid by 2035 as spurring a disjointed transition from coal, oil, and natural gas to renewable energies, such as wind, solar, and nuclear.

  With electricity demand increasing—it is projected to increase by at least 50 percent by 2050—fossil fuel plants are being retired more quickly than they are being replaced by plants generating electricity from “renewable” green sources, fostering fears of shortages that could see electricity prices soar.

  “You’ve heard me say, and you’ve heard me say often, reliability is job one, and that is our focus of many of the orders we have today” including the NERC assessment, Phillips said.

  The NERC assessment and other FERC programs address “the rapidly changing resource mix,” but added he is concerned about the “projected addition over the next decade of an unprecedented proportion of non-synchronous resources.”

  Those resources include solar, wind, and hydropower, which are “non-synchronous” because they produce different amounts of electricity depending on conditions. Too much reliance on non-synchronous renewable energy generation can decrease overall grid stability, NERC maintains.

  Nevertheless, the DOE agencies’ plan to remedy summer storm and heat wave shortfalls is adding more “non-synchronous” energy to the resource mix.

  Energy Industry Analyst James Burchill of the Office of Energy Policy & Innovation told the commission that a “warmer than average summer [is] expected this year” with the National Oceanographic Atmospheric Agency forecasting a “50- to 70-percent chance of higher than normal temperatures this summer in most parts of the country.”

  Burchill said aggregate net power generation this summer is expected to increase to 1,167 gigawatts (GW) from 1,138 GWs last summer “primarily from solar and wind generation that has been added or will begin service.”

  An additional 4 GWs of energy storage capacity has been added nationwide for the second year in a row, “making battery storage the fourth-largest type of capacity addition to the grid by the end of summer 2023,” he said.

  “Resource additions outpaced retirements, with rapid growth in storage capacity,” which should suffice in supplementing base grid generation, Burchill said. NERC maintains this should be adequate under normal operating conditions.

  “Tracking recent trends,” he said, “much of the added capacity this summer will likely come from wind, solar, natural gas-fired (plants), and battery storage projects while retirements will most be coal-fired.”

  

  ‘Good News’ Fueled By Wind, Sun, Hope

  NERC Director of Reliability John Moura was less rosy, telling the commission the assessment “found that new resource additions will meet that [normal] demand, but the loss in capacity from retirements is increasing the risk of electricity shortages during wide-area heat waves and other extreme weather conditions.”

  To be clear, he said, “All areas meet reliability criteria and have adequate resources for normal demand. However, we also found more areas are likely to have energy risks during the more extreme scenarios that we assess.”

  Wind energy, in particular, is a concern, Moura said. “When low-wind factors are factored in” generation in peak demand is “not sufficient.”

  “New wind and solar are not one-for-one replacements of retiring fossil plants,” Commissioner Allison Clements said. “They are not intended to create a reliable grid in isolation.”

  She said that “properly accrediting the ability of all resource types during shortages is critical to reliability,” which is what the NERC assessment recommends and what is happening.

  “It is important that we avoid jumping to conclusions, though, before we collectively kick the tires on the assumptions in this report,” Clements said, highlighting upcoming industry forums in Portland, Maine, and Austin, Texas, as opportunities for experts to find solutions, such as “grid-enhancing technologies.”

  Fossil fuel plant retirements “are one important piece of a larger reliability puzzle and solving that puzzle starts with an analysis of all the pieces,” she said.

  Phillips, who was heckled by climate change activists in his opening remarks and as the meeting concluded, said that despite concerns over summer outages, “I think there is some good news here. We’re seeing things trending in the right direction over the last year.”

  That’s not what Christie said he’s seeing.

  “The long-term trends, I don’t think are good news,” he said. “I think we have some major, major threats facing the reliability of the grid. The long-term trend is we are losing dispatchable generation at a rate that is unsustainable and it is going to have negative consequences in the future.”

  But there’s the wind, the sun, and the hope that it all works out, Christie said.

  “If wind doesn’t show up, there is insufficient dispatchable generating capacity,” he said. “So, we hope it does.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 05/20/2023 – 14:30