Dec 27

Today’s News 27th December 2022

  • Escobar: Can China Help Brazil Restart Its Global Soft Power?
    Escobar: Can China Help Brazil Restart Its Global Soft Power?

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    Bolsonaro reduced Brazil to resources-exporter status; now Lula should follow Argentina’s lead into Belt and Road…

    Ten days of full immersion in Brazil are not for the faint-hearted. Even restricted to the top two megalopolises, Sao Paulo and Rio, watching live the impact of interlocking economic, political, social and environmental crises exacerbated by the Jair Bolsonaro project leaves one stunned.

    The return of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for what will be his third presidential term, starting January 1, 2023, is an extraordinary story trespassed by Sisyphean tasks. All at the same time he will have to

    • fight poverty;

    • reconnect with economic development while redistributing wealth;

    • re-industrialize the nation; and

    • tame environmental pillage.

    That will force his new government to summon unforeseen creative powers of political and financial persuasion.

    Even a mediocre, conservative politician such as Geraldo Alckmin, former governor of the wealthiest state of the union, Sao Paulo, and coordinator of the presidential transition, was simply astonished at how four years of the Bolsonaro project let loose a cornucopia of vanished documents, a black hole concerning all sorts of data and inexplicable financial losses.

    It’s impossible to ascertain the extent of corruption across the spectrum because simply nothing is in the books: Governmental systems have not been fed since 2020.

    Alckmin summed it all up: “The Bolsonaro government happened in the Stone Age, where there were no words and numbers.”

    Now every single public policy will have to be created, or re-created from scratch, and serious mistakes will be inevitable because of lack of data.

    And we’re not talking about a banana republic – even though the country concerned features plenty of (delicious) bananas.

    By purchasing power parity (PPP), according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Brazil remains the eighth-ranked economic power in the world even after the Bolsonaro devastation years – behind China, the US, India, Japan, Germany, Russia and Indonesia, and ahead of the UK and France.

    A concerted imperial campaign since 2010, duly denounced by WikiLeaks, and implemented by local comprador elites, targeted the Dilma Rousseff presidency – the Brazilian national entrepreneurial champions – and led to Rousseff’s (illegal) impeachment and the jailing of Lula for 580 days on spurious charges (all subsequently dropped), paved the way for Bolsonaro to win the presidency in 2018.

    Were it not for this accumulation of disasters, Brazil – a natural leader of the Global South – by now might possibly be placed as the fifth-largest geo-economic power in the world.

    What the investment gang wants

    Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr, a former vice-president of the New Development Bank (NDB), or BRICS bank, goes straight to the point: Brazil’s dependence on Lula is immensely problematic.

    Batista sees Lula facing at least three hostile blocs.

    • The extreme right supported by a significant, powerful faction of the armed forces – and this includes not only Bolsonarists, who are still in front of a few army barracks contesting the presidential election result;

    • The physiological right that dominates Congress – known in Brazil as “The Big Center”;

    • International financial capital – which, predictably, controls the bulk of mainstream media.

    The third bloc, to a great extent, gleefully embraced Lula’s notion of a United Front capable of defeating the Bolsonaro project (which project, by the way, never ceased to be immensely profitable for the third bloc).

    Now they want their cut. Mainstream media instantly turned to corralling Lula, operating a sort of “financial inquisition,” as described by crack economist Luiz Gonzaga Belluzzo.

    By appointing longtime Workers’ Party loyalist Fernando Haddad as finance minister, Lula signaled that he, in fact, will be in charge of the economy. Haddad is a political-science professor and was a decent minister of education, but he’s no sharp economic guru. Acolytes of the Goddess of the Market, of course, dismiss him.

    Once again, this is the trademark Lula swing in action: He chose to place more importance on what will be complex, protracted negotiations with a hostile Congress to advance his social agenda, confident that all the lineaments of economic policy are in his head.

    A lunch party with some members of Sao Paulo’s financial elite, even before Haddad’s name was announced, offered a few fascinating clues. These people are known as the “Faria Limers” – after the high-toned Faria Lima Avenue, which houses quite a few post-mod investment banks’ offices as well as Google and Facebook HQs.

    Faria Lima Avenue in San Paulo. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

    Lunch attendees included a smattering of rabid anti-Workers’ Party investors, the proverbial unreconstructed neoliberals, yet most were enthusiastic about opportunities ahead to make a killing, including an investor looking for deals involving Chinese companies.

    The neoliberal mantra of those willing – perhaps – to place their bets on Lula (for a price) is “fiscal responsibility.” That frontally clashes with Lula’s focus on social justice.

    That’s where Haddad comes up as a helpful, polite interlocutor because he does privilege nuance, pointing out that only looking at market indicators and forgetting about the 38% of Brazilians who only earn the minimum wage (1,212 Brazilian real or US$233 per month) is not exactly good for business.

    The dark arts of non-government

    Lula is already winning his first battle: approving a constitutional amendment that allows financing of more social spending.

    That allows the government to keep the flagship Bolsa Família welfare program – of roughly $13 a month per poverty-level family – at least for the next two years.

    A stroll across downtown Sao Paulo – which in the 1960s was as chic as mid-Manhattan – offers a sorrowful crash course on impoverishment, shut-down businesses, homelessness and raging unemployment. The notorious “Crack Land” – once limited to a street – now encompasses a whole neighborhood, much like junkie, post-pandemic Los Angeles.

    Rio offers a completely different vibe if one goes for a walk in Ipanema on a sunny day, always a smashing experience. But Ipanema lives in a bubble. The real Rio of the Bolsonaro years – economically massacred, de-industrialized, occupied by militias – came up in a roundtable downtown where I interacted with, among others, a former energy minister and the man who discovered the immensely valuable pre-salt oil reserves.

    In the Q&A, a black man from a very poor community advanced the key challenge for Lula’s third term: To be stable, and able to govern, he has to have the vast poorest sectors of the population backing him up.

    This man voiced what seems not to be debated in Brazil at all: How did there come to be millions of poor Bolsonarists – street cleaners, delivery guys, the unemployed? Right-wing populism seduced them – and the established wings of the woke left had, and still have, nothing to offer them.

    Addressing this problem is as serious as the destruction of Brazilian  engineering giants by the Car Wash “corruption” racket. Brazil now has a huge number of well-qualified unemployed engineers. How come they have not amassed enough political organization to reclaim their jobs? Why should they resign themselves to becoming Uber drivers?

    José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, the new head of the UN Economic Commission on Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), may carp about the region’s economic failure as even worse now than in the “lost decade” of the 1980s: Average annual economic growth in Latin America in the decade up to 2023 is set to be just 0.8%.

    Yet what the UN is incapable of analyzing is how a plundering neoliberal regime such as Bolsonaro’s managed to “elevate” to unforeseen toxic levels the dark arts of little or no investment, low productivity and less than zero emphasis on education.

    President Dilma in da house

    Lula was quick to summarize Brazil’s new foreign policy – which will go totally multipolar, with emphasis on increasing Latin American integration, stronger ties across the Global South and a push to reform the UN Security Council (in sync with BRICS members Russia, China and India).

    Mauro Vieira, an able diplomat, will be the new foreign minister. But the man fine-tuning Brazil on the world stage will be Celso Amorim, Lula’s former foreign minister from 2003 to 2010.

    In a conference that reunited us in Sao Paulo, Amorim elaborated on the complexity of the world Lula is now inheriting, compared with 2003. Yet along with climate change the main priorities – achieving closer integration with South America, reviving Unasur (the Union of South American Nations) and re-approaching Africa – remain the same.

    And then there’s the Holy Grail: “good relations with both the US and China.”

    The Empire, predictably, will be on extreme close watch. US national security adviser Jake Sullivan dropped in to Brasilia, during the fist days of the World Cup soccer tournament, and was absolutely charmed by Lula, who’s a master of charisma. Yet the Monroe Doctrine always prevails. Lula getting closer and closer to BRICS – and the expanded BRICS+ – is considered virtual anathema in Washington.

    Jake Sullivan and Lula in Brasilia on November 28. Photo: Ricardo Stuckert

    So Lula will play most overtly in the environment arena. Covertly, it will be a sophisticated balancing act.

    The combo behind US President Joe Biden called Lula to congratulate him soon after the election results. Sullivan was in Brasilia setting the stage for a Lula visit to Washington. Chinese President Xi Jinping for his part sent him an affectionate letter, emphasizing the “global strategic partnership” between Brazil and China. Russian President Vladimir Putin called Lula earlier this week – and emphasized their common strategic approach to BRICS.

    China has been Brazil’s top trade partner since 2009, ahead of the US. Bilateral trade in 2021 hit $135 billion. The problem is lack of diversification and focus on low added value: iron ore, soybeans, raw crude and animal protein accounted for 87.4% of exports in 2021. China exports, on the other hand, are mostly high-tech manufactured products.

    Brazil’s dependence on commodity exports has indeed contributed for years to its rising foreign reserves. But that implies high concentration of wealth, low taxes, low job creation and dependence on cyclical price oscillations.

    There’s no question China is focused on Brazilian natural resources to fuel its new development push – or “peaceful modernization,” as established by the latest Party Congress.

    But Lula will have to strive for a more equal trade balance in case he manages to restart the nation as a solid economy. In 2000, for instance, Brazil’s top export item was Embraer jets. Now, it’s iron ore and soybeans; yet another dire indicator of the ferocious de-industrialization operated by the Bolsonaro project.

    China is already investing substantially in the Brazilian electric sector – mostly due to state companies being bought by Chinese companies. That was the case in 2017 of State Grid buying CPFL in Sao Paulo, for instance, which in turn bought a state company from southern Brazil in 2021.

    From Lula’s point of view, that’s inadmissible: a classic case of privatization of strategic public assets.

    A different scenario plays in neighboring Argentina. Buenos Aires in February became an official partner of the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative, with at least $23 billion in new projects on the pipeline. The Argentine railway system will be upgraded by – who else? – Chinese companies, to the tune of $4.6 billion.

    The Chinese will also be investing in the largest solar energy plant in Latin America, a hydroelectric plant in Patagonia, and a nuclear energy plant – complete with transfer of Chinese technology to the Argentine state.

    Lula, beaming with invaluable soft power not only personally when it comes to Xi but also appealing to Chinese public opinion, can get similar strategic partnership deals, with even more amplitude. Brasilia may follow the Iranian partnership model – offering oil and gas in exchange for building critical infrastructure.

    Inevitably, the golden path ahead will be via joint ventures, not mergers and acquisitions. No wonder many in Rio are already dreaming of high-speed rail linking it to Sao Paulo in just over an hour, instead of the current, congested highway journey of six hours (if you’re lucky).

    A key role will be played by former president Dilma Rousseff, who had a long, leisurely lunch with a few of us in Sao Paulo, taking her time to recount, in minutiae, everything from the day she was officially arrested by the military dictatorship (January 16, 1970) to her off-the-record conversations with then-German chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin, and Xi.

    President Dilma Rousseff during a bilateral meeting with the president of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, at the G20 Saint Petersburg summit in 2013. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

    It goes without saying that her political – and personal – capital with both Xi and Putin is stellar. Lula offered her any post she wanted in the new government. Although still a state secret, this will be part of a serious drive to polish Brazil’s global profile, especially across the Global South.

    To recover from the previous, disastrous six years – which included a two-year no man’s land (2016-2018) after the impeachment of president Dilma – Brazil will need an unparalleled national drive of re-industrialization at virtually every level, complete with serious investment in research and development, training of specialized work forces and technology transfer.

    There is a superpower that can play a crucial role in this process: China, Brazil’s close partner in the expanding BRICS+. Brazil is one of the natural leaders of the Global South, a role much prized by the Chinese leadership.

    The key now is for both partners to establish a high-level strategic dialogue – all over again. Lula’s first high-profile foreign visit may be to Washington. But the destination that really matters, as we watch the river of history flow, will be Beijing.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 23:55

  • University Of Idaho Professor Sues TikTok Personality Who Linked Her To Student Murders
    University Of Idaho Professor Sues TikTok Personality Who Linked Her To Student Murders

    Authored by Dorothy Li via The Epoch Times,

    A professor at the University of Idaho filed a defamation lawsuit against a TikTok personality, who published dozens of videos linking the professor to the killing of four students at the campus last month, court documents show.

    The deaths of the four University of Idaho students remain unsolved after their bodies were found in a three-story house near the campus on Nov. 13. Police said each victim was stabbed multiple times and some had defensive wounds. The authorities have made no arrest, nor did they identify a suspect in the case.

    Ashley Guillard, a purported crime sleuth with over 108,000 followers on the short-video platform, published “many videos on TikTok falsely stating that Plaintiff Rebecca Scofield participated in the murders because she was romantically involved with one of the victims,” read the complaint filed on Dec. 21.

    “Guillard’s statements are false. Professor Scofield did not participate in the murders, and she had never met any of the victims, let alone entered a romantic relationship with them,” according to the lawsuit filed in Idaho’s federal district court.

    Guillard, who consults Tarot cards and other readings to obtain information about murders, made the accusation against the history professor on Nov. 22, the lawsuit alleges.

    “I don’t care what y’all say …Rebecca Scofield killed [the four students] … REBECCA WAS THE ONE TO INITIATE THE PLAN…” Guillard wrote in a video on TikTok.

    Scofield, an associate professor who served as the chair of the history department, “did not commit or in any way participate in the murders of the four students,” the complaint states.

    Scofield was with her husband in Portland, Oregon, visiting friends during the time when the four students were killed, according to the complaint.

    The lawsuit states that Scofield had never taught any of the victims.

    “Although the University of Idaho is a relatively small university, she does not recall ever meeting any one of these students.”

    The document added the professor had also never met Guillard before.

    The TikTok app is seen on a smartphone in this illustration taken on July 13, 2021. (Dado Ruvic/Illustration/Reuters)

    Cease-and-Desist Letters and Response

    According to the lawsuit, Scofield’s lawyer sent a cease-and-desist letter to Guillard on Nov. 29, stating Guillard’s claims were baseless and demanding her to take the videos down.

    Yet Guillard didn’t stop posting videos. In a video published on Dec. 1, Guillard said, “I’m not worried about Rebecca Scofield suing me because she will be using her resources to fight four murder cases.”

    “She ordered the execution,” Guillard added, according to the complaint.

    On Dec. 8, Scofield’s second cease-and-desist letter was sent to Guillard, “again demanding that Guillard take down her defamatory posts and that Guillard stop making defamatory TikTok,” according to the complaint.

    Guillard’s videos have been viewed “millions of times” and amplified her account “at the expense of Professor Scofield’s reputation,” the lawsuit said.

    Guillard’s TikToks have caused the professor “significant emotional distress,” the lawsuit said. “She fears that Guillard’s false statements may motivate someone to cause harm to her or her family members.”

    The professor’s lawsuit is seeking a trial by jury and compensatory and punitive damages.

    Guillard responded to the lawsuits with more videos on the platform. In one video, Guillard wrote, “Rebeca Scofield will regret this lawsuit.” In another, she said, “I’m ON FIRE with excitement! SEE YOU IN COURT REBECCA SCOFIELD!!”

    The Epoch Times has contacted Scofield’s lawyer and Guillard for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 23:20

  • What Will The FBI Not Do?
    What Will The FBI Not Do?

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmGreatness.com,

    Who watches the watchers?

    The FBI on Wednesday finally broke its silence and responded to the revelations on Twitter of close ties between the bureau and the social media giant—ties that included efforts to suppress information and censor political speech. 

    “The correspondence between the FBI and Twitter show nothing more than examples of our traditional, longstanding and ongoing federal government and private sector engagements, which involve numerous companies over multiple sectors and industries,” the bureau said in a statement.

    “As evidenced in the correspondence, the FBI provides critical information to the private sector in an effort to allow them to protect themselves and their customers. The men and women of the FBI work every day to protect the American public. It is unfortunate that conspiracy theorists and others are feeding the American public misinformation with the sole purpose of attempting to discredit the agency.” 

    Almost all of the FBI communique is untrue, except the phrase about the bureau’s “engagements which involve numerous companies over multiple sectors and industries.” 

    Future disclosures will no doubt reveal similar FBI subcontracting with other social media concerns of Silicon Valley to stifle free expression and news deemed problematic to the FBI’s agenda. 

    The FBI did not merely engage in “correspondence” with Twitter to protect the company and its “customers.” Instead, it effectively hired Twitter to suppress the free expression of some of its users, as well as news stories deemed unhelpful to the Biden campaign and administration—to the degree that the bureau’s requests sometimes even exceeded those of Twitter’s own left-wing censors.

    The FBI did not wish to help Twitter “to protect themselves [sic],” given the bureau’s Twitter liaisons were often surprised at the FBI’s bold requests to suppress the expression of those who had not violated Twitter’s own admittedly biased “terms of service” and “community standards.”

    The FBI and its helpers on the Left now reboot the same boilerplate about “conspiracy theorists” and “misinformation” smears used against anyone who rejected the FBI-fed Russian collusion hoax and the bureau’s peddling of the “Russian disinformation” lie to suppress accurate pre-election news about the authenticity of Hunter Biden’s laptop. 

    The FBI is now, tragically, in freefall. The public is at the point, first, of asking what improper or illegal behavior will the bureau not pursue, and what, if anything, must be done to reform or save a once great but now discredited agency.

    Consider the last four directors, the public faces of the FBI for the last 22 years. Ex-director Robert Mueller testified before Congress that he simply would not or could not talk about the fraudulent Steele dossier. He claimed that it was not the catalyst for his special counsel investigation of Donald Trump’s alleged ties with the Russians when, of course, it was. 

    Mueller also testified that he was “not familiar” with Fusion GPS, although Glenn Simpson’s opposition research firm subsidized the dossier through various cutouts that led back to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. And the skullduggery in the FBI-subsidized dossier helped force the appointment of Mueller himself. 

    While under congressional oath, Mueller’s successor James Comey on some 245 occasions claimed that he “could not remember,” “could not recall,” or “did not know” when asked simple questions fundamental to his own involvement with the Russian collusion hoax. 

    Comey, remember, memorialized a confidential conversation with President Trump on an FBI device and then used a third party to leak it to the New York Times. In his own words, the purpose was to force a special counsel appointment. The gambit worked, and his friend and predecessor Robert Mueller got the job. Twenty months and $40 million later, Mueller’s investigation tore the country apart but could find no evidence that Trump, as Steele alleged, colluded with the Russians to throw the 2016 election. 

    Comey also seems to have reassured the president that he was not the target of an ongoing FBI investigation, when in fact, Trump was.

    Comey was never indicted for either misleading or lying to a congressional committee or leaking a document variously considered either confidential or classified. 

    While under oath, his interim successor, Andrew McCabe, on a number of occasions flat-out lied to federal investigators. Or as the office of the inspector general put it:

    As detailed in this report, the OIG found that then-Deputy Director Andrew McCabe lacked candor, including under oath, on multiple occasions in connection with describing his role in connection with a disclosure to the WSJ, and that this conduct violated FBI Offense Codes 2.5 and 2.6. The OIG also concluded that McCabe’s disclosure of the existence of an ongoing investigation in the manner described in this report violated the FBI’s and the Department’s media policy and constituted misconduct.

     McCabe purportedly believed Trump was working with the Russians as a veritable spy—a false accusation based entirely on the FBI’s paid, incoherent prevaricator Christopher Steele. And so, McCabe discussed with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein methods to have the president’s conversations wiretapped via a Rosenstein-worn stealthy recording device, presumably without a warrant.

    Note the FBI ruined the lives of General Michael Flynn and Carter Page with false allegations of criminal conduct or untruthful testimonies. Under current director Christopher Wray, the FBI has surveilled parents at school boards meetings—on the prompt of the National School Boards Association, whose president wrote Attorney General Merrick Garland alleging that bothersome parents upset over critical race indoctrination groups were supposedly violence-prone and veritable terrorists. 

    Under Wray, the FBI staged the psychodramatic Mar-a-Lago raid on an ex-president’s home. The FBI likely leaked the post facto myths that the seized documents contained “nuclear codes” or “nuclear secrets.”  

    Under Wray, the FBI perfected the performance-art, humiliating public arrests of former White House officials or Biden Administration opponents, whether it was the nocturnal rousting of Project Veritas muckraker James O’Keefe in his underwear or the arrest—with leg restraints=—of former White House advisor Peter Navarro at Reagan National Airport for misdemeanor contempt of Congress charge or the detention of Trump election lawyer John Eastman at a restaurant with his family and the confiscation of his phone. Neither O’Keefe nor Eastman has yet been charged with any serious crimes. 

    The FBI arguably interfered in two presidential elections, and a presidential transition, and possibly determinatively so. In 2016, James Comey announced that his investigation had found that Hillary Clinton had improperly if not illegally used her private email server to conduct official State Department business, some of it confidential and classified, and likely intercepted by foreign governments. All that was a clear violation of federal statutes. Comey next, quite improperly as a combined FBI investigator and a de facto federal prosecutor, deduced that such violations did not merit prosecution. 

    Around the same time, the FBI had hired as a source the foreign national and political opposition hitman Christopher Steele. It helped Steele to spread among the media his fraudulent dossier and used its unverified and false contents to win FISA warrants against U.S. citizens on the bogus charges of colluding with the Russians to throw the election to Donald Trump. By the FBI’s own admission, it would not have obtained warrants to surveil Trump campaign associates without the use of Steele’s dossier, which it also admittedly either knew was a fraud or could not corroborate.

    Again, such allegations in the dossier were false and, apparently, the FBI soon knew they were bogus since one of its own lawyers—the now-convicted felon Kevin Clinesmith—found it necessary also to alter a court-submitted document to feign incriminatory information. 

    The FBI, on the prompt of lame-duck members of the Obama Justice Department, during a presidential transition, set up an entrapment ambush of National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. It was an effort to lure Flynn into admitting to a violation of the Logan Act, a 223-year old-law that has led to only two indictments and zero convictions. 

    During the 2020 election, the FBI suppressed knowledge of its possession of Hunter Biden’s laptop. Early on, the bureau knew that the computer and its contents were authentic and yet kept its contents suppressed. 

    Moreover, the FBI sought to contract out Twitter (at roughly $3.5 million) as a veritable subsidiarity to suppress social media traffic about the laptop and speech the bureau deemed improper. 

    Again, although the FBI knew the laptop in its possession was likely genuine, it still sought to use Twitter employees to suppress pre-election mention of that reality. At the same time, bureau officials remained mum when 51 former “intelligence officials” misled the country by claiming that the laptop had all the hallmarks of “Russian disinformation.” Polls later revealed that had the public known the truth about the laptop, a significant number likely would have voted differently—perhaps enough to change the outcome of the election.

    The media, Twitter, Facebook, and former intelligence operatives were all following the FBI’s own preliminary warning bulletin that “Foreign Actors and Cybercriminals Likely to Spread Disinformation Regarding 2020 Election Results”—even as the bureau knew the laptop in its possession was most certainly not Russian disinformation. And, of course, the FBI had helped spread the Russian collusion hoax in 2016. 

    In addition, the FBI-issued phones of agent Peter Strzok and attorney Lisa Page, along with members of Robert Mueller’s special counsel “dream team”—all under subpoena—had their data mysteriously wiped clean, purportedly “by accident.” 

    Apparently, the paramours Strzok and Page, in particular, had much more to hide, given how earlier they had frequently expressed their venom toward candidate Donald Trump. Strzok boasted to Page that the FBI in general, and Andrew McCabe in particular, had an “insurance policy” means of denying Trump the presidency: 

    I want to believe the path you threw out in Andy’s office—that there’s no way he gets elected—but I’m afraid we can’t take the risk. It’s like an insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40.

    When some of their embarrassing texts emerged, both were dismissed by the special counsel. But Mueller carefully did so by staggering Strozk and Pages’ departures and not immediately releasing the reasons for their firings or reassignments.

    To this day, the public has no idea what the FBI was doing on January 6, how many FBI informants and agents were among the rioters, and to what degree they knew in advance of the protests. The New York Times reporter most acquainted with the January 6 riot, Matthew Rosenberg, dismissed the buffoonish violence as “no big deal” and scoffed, “They were making this an organized thing that it wasn’t.” 

    “There were a ton of FBI informants among the people who attacked the Capitol,”  Rosenberg noted. We have never been told anything about that “ton”—a topic of zero interest to the January 6 select committee.

    What are the people to do about a federal law enforcement agency whose directors either repeatedly lie under oath, or mislead, or do not cooperate with congressional overseers? What should we do with a bureau that alters court documents, deceives the court with information the FBI had good reason to know was false and leaks records of confidential presidential conversations to the media to prompt the appointment of a special prosecutor? What should be done with a government agency that pays social media corporations to warp the dissemination of the news and suppress free expression and communications? Or an agency that hires a foreign national to gather dirt on a presidential candidate and plots to ensure that there is “no way” a presidential candidate “gets elected” and destroys subpoenaed evidence? 

    What, if anything, should the people do about a once-respected law enforcement agency that repeatedly smears its critics, most recently as “conspiracy theorists”?

    The current FBI leadership under Christopher Wray, in the tradition of recent FBI directors, has stonewalled congressional overseers about FBI activity during the Trump and Biden administrations. In “Après moi, le déluge” fashion, the bureau acts as if it assumes the next Republican administration in office will remove the current hierarchy. And thus, it assumes for now, not cooperating with Republican investigations while Democrats hold control of the Senate and White House for a brief while longer ensures exemption. 

    Wray, most recently, cut short his Senate testimony on the pretext of an unspecified engagement, which turned out to be flying out on the FBI Gulfstream jet to his vacation home.

    Yet the bureau’s lack of candor, contrition, and cooperation has only further alienated the public, especially traditional and conservative America, characteristically the chief source of support for the FBI. 

    There have been all sorts of remedies proposed for the bureau. 

    The three reforms most commonly suggested include:

    1) simply dissolve the FBI in the belief that its concentration of power in Washington has become uncontrollable and is increasingly put to partisan service, including but not limited to the warping of U.S. presidential elections;

    2) move the FBI headquarters out of the Washington D.C. nexus, preferably in the age of Zoom to a more convenient and central location in the United States, perhaps an urban site such as Salt Lake City, Denver, Kansas City, or Oklahoma City; or

    3) break-up and decentralize the FBI and redistribute its various divisions to different departments to ensure that the power of its $11 billion budget and 35,000 employees are no longer aggregated and put in service of particular political agendas. 

    The next two years are dangerous times for the FBI—and the country. The House will soon likely begin investigations of the agency’s improper behavior. Yet, simultaneously, the Biden Justice Department will escalate its use of the bureau as a partisan investigative service for political purposes. 

    The FBI’s former embattled, high-ranking administrators who have been fired or forced to leave the agency—Andrew McCabe, James Comey, Peter Strzok, James Baker, Lisa Page, and others—will continue to appear on the cable news stations and social media to inveigh against critics of the FBI, despite being all deeply involved in the Russia-collusion hoax. 

    Merrick Garland will continue to order the FBI to hound perceived enemies through surveillance and performance art arrests. And the people will only grow more convinced the bureau has become Stasi-like and cannot be reformed but must be broken up—even as in extremis a defiant and unapologetic FBI will, as its latest communique shows, attack its critics. 

    We are left with the dilemma of Quis custodiet ipsos custodes? Who watches the watchers?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 22:45

  • Omnibus Shows Congress's Priorities: Authoritarianism & War
    Omnibus Shows Congress’s Priorities: Authoritarianism & War

    Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    Those hoping for a Christmastime government shutdown were once again disappointed when Congress passed a 4,000-page, $1.7 trillion omnibus appropriations bill that few, if any, Representatives and Senators read before voting on. The Republican leadership celebrated this bloated monstrosity because it spends $858 billion on warfare while “only” spending $772.5 billion on welfare.

    No one should think Republican insistence on more warfare than welfare spending means Democrats oppose the warfare state. Under President Biden and a Democrat-controlled Congress, “defense” spending has increased by 4.3 percent over the last two years. Similarly, every Republican President in recent years—including two who had a Republican-controlled Congress for at least part of their term—supported huge increases in welfare state spending. Most Democrats only pretend to oppose warfare and most Republicans only pretend to oppose welfare to appease their parties’ respective bases.

    The Omnibus appropriates a $44.5 billion giveaway to Ukraine. This brings the total US spending on Ukraine’s military to over $100 billion – approximately 50 percent more than Russia’s entire military budget! This money is spent in a conflict that does not affect US security, yet one that would likely have not occurred were it not for prior US meddling in the region.

    The Omnibus bill provides $11.3 billion for the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), a $569.6 million increase and $524 billion above the President’s request. According to the Democratic leadership, the funding increase is so the FBI can better fight “extremist violence and domestic terrorists.”

    The public recently learned what the FBI considers an appropriate way to fight “extremism,” with the release of emails between Twitter officials and the FBI. These memos show the Bureau was working with Twitter—and almost certainly other social media companies—to suppress certain stories, such as Hunter Biden’s laptop, and points of view, such as skepticism regarding masks, lockdowns, and vaccine mandates. The bureau even used taxpayer funds to reimburse Twitter for the costs of implementing these “requests.” Government officials working with private companies to silence American citizens is a clear violation of the First Amendment.

    This is hardly the first time the FBI has violated the constitutional rights of American citizens. In fact, since its founding the Bureau has targeted political activists and leaders such as Martin Luther King, whose agenda was considered “extreme” or “dangerous” by the Bureau’s corrupt leadership. The idea of a national police force with the power to target Americans because of their political beliefs would have horrified the drafters of the Constitution. The federal government has no constitutional authority over criminal law except for cases of piracy, counterfeiting, and treason. Libertarians, constitutional conservatives, and progressives who still care about civil liberties should join together to defund the FBI.

    The fiscal year 2022 omnibus appropriations bill expands government, reduces liberty, and increases government debt, forcing the Federal Reserve to monetize more debt leading to more price inflation. Our political elites prioritize militarism abroad and authoritarianism at home over addressing the problems facing the American people like the Federal Reserve’s destructive monetary policy. This will fuel growing discontent with the political system.

    As the economy continues to worsen and the attempt to run the world continues to result in failures, the discontent will grow until the welfare warfare system collapses and, hopefully, a new error of liberty peace and prosperity dawns.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 22:10

  • "Full-Blown Meltdown": Southwest Cancels Nearly 3,000 Flights As Holiday Travel Hits Perfect Storm
    “Full-Blown Meltdown”: Southwest Cancels Nearly 3,000 Flights As Holiday Travel Hits Perfect Storm

    Southwest Airlines canceled nearly 3,000 flights on Monday, as a historic winter storm and inadequate staffing made for a perfect storm of holiday chaos the day after Christmas. 

    Passengers line up at Denver International Airport (Hyoung Chang/ Getty)

    As of 9PM on Monday, Southwest had canceled 2,882 flights – or 70% of its schedule, according to flightaware.com. Overall, 82% of Southwest flights were either canceled or delayed. By airport, Denver International saw 24% of flights canceled, while 29% were delayed.

    Tomorrow is also slated to be a total mess, with over 2,400 Tuesday flights canceled.

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    “Yikes, @SouthwestAir! This is clearly a meltdown,” tweeted former TSA official Ross Feinstein, who’s been monitoring the situation.

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    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsA Southwest official, Chris Perry, told NPR that the disruptions are a result of the ongoing winter storm, and that the company “stabilize and improve its operation” as the weather improves.

    From Houston, Texas, and Tampa, Fla., to Cleveland, Ohio, and Denver, Colo., passengers are sharing photos and video of overwhelmed baggage claim areas and long lines at reservation counters. At Southwest, the customer service phone line’s hold times averaged more than two hours, sometimes reaching four hours, according to Colorado Public Radio. -NPR

    “I’m okay with these travel situations and fly on by myself when it’s just me, but when my one-year-old has to suffer through it because of ineptitude and mismanagement, that becomes personal,” said Southwest passenger Joshua Caudle, adding “I’m never going to do this with that company again.”

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    Other problems include “connecting flight crews to their schedules,” according to Perry, who who said this has made it difficult for employees to participate in crew scheduling services and get reassignments.

    A Southwest passenger who says she was attempting to fly from Missouri to Denver said she missed spending Christmas with her family after several delays and cancellations to flights out of the Kansas City International Airport. Despite her being grounded, her luggage was sent to Denver without her, she wrote on Twitter. -NPR

    “This is really as bad as it gets for an airline,” said Kyle Potter, executive editor of Thrifty Traveler, calling it a “full-blown meltdown.”

    “We’ve seen this again and again over the course of the last year or so, when airlines really just struggle especially after a storm, but there’s pretty clear skies across the country.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 21:35

  • Struggling Peloton Discounts Bikes Even More By Selling Refurbished Ones
    Struggling Peloton Discounts Bikes Even More By Selling Refurbished Ones

    Peloton Interactive was on top of the world in the early days of the virus pandemic. Now the fitness equipment manufacturer is struggling to keep its business afloat, announced Monday it would begin to sell refurbished bikes for a discount. 

    Refurbished Peloton Bikes range between $1,145 to $1,995, which includes delivery and setup fees. That’s a $300 savings for the base Peloton Bike and $500 savings for Peloton Bike+. 

    Add refurbished bikes to Peloton’s lineup of attempting to turn the sinking ship around. The company recently announced a national rental program for both models of the bikes, allowing consumers month-to-month options rather than outright buying the bikes or financing. 

    The refurbished bikes come as the company faces several challenging quarters, even as it shifts its hardware-heavy focused business model to a subscription revenue one. It also faces a perfect storm of demand headwinds because the once insanely popular overpriced exercise bikes won’t likely ever experience 2020-21 demand again. 

    Shares of Peloton have crashed 75% this year as rational investors see no signs that demand trouble will abate anytime soon. 

    CEO Barry McCarthy, who took the helm earlier this year, recently said the company’s turnaround is a “work in progress.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 21:00

  • When The FBI Attacks Critics As "Conspiracy Theorists", It's Time To Reform The Bureau
    When The FBI Attacks Critics As “Conspiracy Theorists”, It’s Time To Reform The Bureau

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Below is my column in the Hill on the need for a new “Church Committee” to investigate and reform the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) after years of scandals involving alleged political bias. In response to criticism over its role in Twitter’s censorship system, the FBI lashed out against critics as “conspiracy theorists” spreading disinformation. However, it still refuses to supply new information on other companies, beyond Twitter, that it has paid to engage in censorship.

    Here is the column:

    “Conspiracy theorists … feeding the American public misinformation” is a familiar attack line for anyone raising free-speech concerns over the FBI’s role in social media censorship. What is different is that this attack came from the country’s largest law enforcement agency, the FBI — and, since the FBI has made combatting “disinformation” a major focus of its work, the labeling of its critics is particularly menacing.

    Fifty years ago, the Watergate scandal provoked a series of events that transformed not only the presidency but federal agencies like the FBI. Americans demanded answers about the involvement of the FBI and other federal agencies in domestic politics. Ultimately, Congress not only investigated the FBI but later impanelled the Church Committee to investigate a host of other abuses by intelligence agencies.

    A quick review of recent disclosures and controversies shows ample need for a new Church Committee:

    The Russian investigations

    The FBI previously was at the center of controversies over documented political bias. Without repeating the long history from the Russian influence scandal, FBI officials like Peter Strzok were fired after emails showed open bias against presidential candidate Donald Trump. The FBI ignored warnings that the so-called Steele dossier, largely funded by the Clinton campaign, was likely used by Russian intelligence to spread disinformation. It continued its investigation despite early refutations of key allegations or discrediting of sources.

    Biden family business

    The FBI has taken on the character of a Praetorian Guard when the Biden family has found itself in scandals.

    For example, there was Hunter Biden’s handgun, acquired by apparently lying on federal forms. In 2018, the gun allegedly was tossed into a trash bin in Wilmington, Del., by Hallie Biden, the widow of Hunter’s deceased brother and with whom Hunter had a relationship at the time. Secret Service agents reportedly appeared at the gun shop with no apparent reason, and Hunter later said the matter would be handled by the FBI. Nothing was done despite the apparent violation of federal law.

    Later, the diary of Hunter’s sister, Ashley, went missing. While the alleged theft normally would be handled as a relatively minor local criminal matter, the FBI launched a major investigation that continued for months to pursue those who acquired the diary, which reportedly contains embarrassing entries involving President Biden. Such a massive FBI deployment shocked many of us, but the FBI built a federal case against those who took possession of the diary.

    Targeting Republicans and conservatives

    Recently the FBI was flagged for targeting two senior House Intelligence Committee staffers in grand jury subpoenas sent to Google. It has been criticized for using the Jan. 6 Capitol riot investigations to target conservative groups and GOP members of Congress, including seizing the phone of one GOP member.

    The FBI also has been criticized for targeting pro-life violence while not showing the same vigor toward pro-choice violence.

    Hunter’s laptop

    While the FBI was eager to continue the Russian investigations with no clear evidence of collusion, it showed the opposite inclination when given Hunter Biden’s infamous laptop. The laptop would seem to be a target-rich environment for criminal investigators, with photos and emails detailing an array of potential crimes involving foreign transactions, guns, drugs and prostitutes. However, reports indicate that FBI officials moved to quash or slow any investigation.

    The computer repairman who acquired the laptop, John Paul Mac Isaac, said he struggled to get the FBI to respond and that agents made thinly veiled threats regarding any disclosures of material related to the Biden family; he said one agent told him that “in their experience, nothing ever happens to people that don’t talk about these things.”

    The ‘Twitter Files’

    The “Twitter Files” released by Twitter’s new owner, Elon Musk, show as many as 80 agents targeting social-media posters for censorship on the site. This included alleged briefings that Twitter officials said was the reason they spiked the New York Post’s Hunter Biden laptop story before the 2020 election.

    The FBI sent 150 messages on back channels to just one Twitter official to flag accounts. One Twitter executive expressed unease over the FBI’s pressure, declaring: “They are probing & pushing everywhere they can (including by whispering to congressional staff).”

    We also have learned that Twitter hired a number of retired FBI agents, including former FBI general counsel James Baker, who was a critical and controversial figure in past bureau scandals over political bias.

    Attacking critics

    It is not clear what is more chilling — the menacing role played by the FBI in Twitter’s censorship program, or its mendacious response to the disclosure of that role. The FBI has issued a series of “nothing-to-see-here” statements regarding the Twitter Files.

    In its latest statement, the FBI insists it did not command Twitter to take any specific action when flagging accounts to be censored. Of course, it didn’t have to threaten the company — because we now have an effective state media by consent rather than coercion. Moreover, an FBI warning tends to concentrate the minds of most people without the need for a specific threat.

    Finally, the files show that the FBI paid Twitter millions as part of this censorship system — a windfall favorably reported to Baker before he was fired from Twitter by Musk.

    Criticizing the FBI is now ‘disinformation’

    Responding to the disclosures and criticism, an FBI spokesperson declared: “The men and women of the FBI work every day to protect the American public. It is unfortunate that conspiracy theorists and others are feeding the American public misinformation with the sole purpose of attempting to discredit the agency.”

    Arguably, “working every day to protect the American public” need not include censoring the public to protect it from errant or misleading ideas.

    However, it is the attack on its critics that is most striking. While the FBI denounced critics of an earlier era as communists and “fellow travelers,” it now uses the same attack narrative to label its critics as “conspiracy theorists.”

    After Watergate, there was bipartisan support for reforming the FBI and intelligence agencies. Today, that cacophony of voices has been replaced by crickets, as much of the media imposes another effective blackout on coverage of the Twitter Files. This media silence suggests that the FBI found the “sweet spot” on censorship, supporting the views of the political and media establishment.

    As for the rest of us, the FBI now declares us to be part of a disinformation danger which it is committed to stamping out – “conspiracy theorists” misleading the public simply by criticizing the bureau.

    Clearly, this is the time for a new Church Committee – and time to reform the FBI.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 20:30

  • Bitcoin Hash Rate Plunged, Miners Curtailed Operations As Power Grids Overwhelmed During Arctic Blast
    Bitcoin Hash Rate Plunged, Miners Curtailed Operations As Power Grids Overwhelmed During Arctic Blast

    A major winter storm and arctic blast have claimed the lives of at least 37 deaths nationwide. Amid the sub-freezing temperatures across the Lower 48, crypto miners voluntarily cut or entirely shuttered operations to alleviate stress on struggling power grids. As a result, the Bitcoin mining hash rate plunged. 

    According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s hast rate tumbled to 156.36 EH/s on Dec. 24 from 252.98 EH/s on Dec. 21. 

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    This was the most significant daily drop since summer. 

    The plunging hash rate for Bitcoin indicates fewer mining operations were online to mine and process transactions on the blockchain network. Some of the miners that went offline were Riot Blockchain and Core Scientific. 

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    Lee Bratcher, president of the Texas Blockchain Council, wrote in a LinkedIn post that “99% of industrial-scale bitcoin mining load was off!” on Saturday morning as cold weather poured into much of Texas, as the state’s grid operator was making sure there was adequate power capacity to meet demand. 

    Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter said the miners’ curtailment in Texas proves they support the grid in times of stress. 

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    For a more in-depth view of global crypto mining, Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index shows the US accounts for 38% of the average monthly hash rate share. Within the US, New York, Kentucky, Georgia, and Texas are some of the top mining states, many of which experienced power outages. 

    As of Monday morning, power outages have declined across the eastern half of the US, and temperatures are warming slightly. Bitcoin’s hash rate has also returned to 248 EH/s.

    The hash rate is not the only metric that plunged (now recovered) for Bitcoin. Many crypto analysts on Twitter pointed out that Bitcoin market volatility is at the lowest in years. 

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    One popular technical indicator to estimate volatility is Bollinger Bands. The indicator shows Bitcoin trading range is narrowing, another indicator of a low volatility period, but that usually precedes a new trend.

    Bitcoin is trading around $16,800 this morning. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 20:00

  • Oil Jumps After China Scraps Inbound Quarantine, Will Reopen Borders Effectively Ending Zero-Covid Regime
    Oil Jumps After China Scraps Inbound Quarantine, Will Reopen Borders Effectively Ending Zero-Covid Regime

    And just like that China’s zero-Covid policy is over.

    On Monday, Beijing announced that it will remove the country’s quarantine requirements for inbound travelers from January 8, dismantling the final remnants of a zero-Covid regime that closed it off from the rest of the world for almost three years, sent its economy in an on again/off again tailspin, and which not only sparked a record surge of new covid infections which have failed to translate into a zombie apocalypse (confirming that covid was never much stronger than the flu) but also has forced China to halt all official covid data reporting after being caught lying one too many times, an unheard of event for China where every “data point” is fake.

    Starting Jan. 8, people arriving in China will no longer be quarantined, though they will be required to obtain negative Covid test results within 48 hours of departure. That compares with the current requirement of eight days isolation — five days at a designated quarantine hotel, or central facility, followed by three days at home. At one point this year the quarantine arrival rule required travelers to spend three weeks in a hotel room.

    The country also downgraded the management of Covid from the highest level to the second highest, effectively removing the legal justification for aggressive Covid Zero restrictions. Still, the National Health Commission said it will continue to monitor the virus’s spread and vowed to take appropriate measures to suppress the peak of Covid outbreaks.

    China’s National Health Commission unveiled the move as part of a wider announcement that downgraded the country’s management of Covid-19, a virus which is currently sweeping the nation, and definitively abandoned a host of other preventive measures. The NHC also said that more than 90% of cases of the omicron variant were “mild or asymptomatic”, part of a shift in tone towards coronavirus as it rages across a country where until recently very few of the 1.4bn population had contracted it, at least according to the government’s fabricated numbers.

    In its long overdue scramble for natural immunity, the government, which this month also scrapped the requirement for positive cases to quarantine at central facilities, is now battling a severe winter outbreak with estimated cases spiraling into the hundreds of millions and health services under pressure. While models have estimated the virus could lead to close to 1 million deaths – probably the same models that predicted the end of western civilization as we know it some time in late 2020 – China’s public data has ceased to reflect the situation on the ground and other zero-Covid rules such as mass-testing have largely ended.

    China pursued a strict zero-Covid policy – the pet project of dictator Xi Jinping – shortly after the pandemic first emerged, locking down many of its largest cities over multiple years of the policy and imposing quarantine requirements on foreign arrivals as part of an attempt to eliminate the virus within its borders. But late this year, the policy finally began to unravel as authorities struggled to contain outbreaks across multiple cities, including the capital Beijing, while violent protesters took to the streets in November in a rare display of defiance against the central government’s approach, which was the tipping point that led Beijing to dramatically relax the policy shortly afterwards.

    As the FT puts it, “Monday’s announcement signals the end of the zero-Covid system that transformed China’s relationship with the outside world, and which for long periods successfully limited the transmission of a virus that had swept through every other advanced economy”, which prevented the country from developing a natural immunity to the made in Wuhan virus, and ensured that covid-zero would keep the country locked down for decades to come.

    The sudden removal of restrictions has already put immense pressure on China’s healthcare system, especially in Beijing, which was one of the centers of the outbreak prior to the policy’s abandonment and was thought to be one of the best prepared cities. The result has been another hoarding panic, with local reports indicating there has been a run on the pharmacy in the past few days resulting in “absolutely nothing” left.

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    Analysts have also warned over the economic and corporate costs – at least in the short term until natural immunity is built up  – of the virus itself as it sweeps the country, with Apple among those vulnerable to further supply chain issues.

    Under zero-Covid, citizens in China were required to test every few days at booths across major cities and then scan a code on their phones to enter buildings. Such practices have largely disappeared as cases multiplied rapidly, though as recently as late November individuals in Shanghai were still being taken to central quarantine because they were close contacts of positive cases at bars.

    While the market had been pricing in the end of covid zero at some time in late Q1 or early Q2, the accelerated end of China’s most defining policy of the post-Covid era has sent oil higher as traders start pricing in the massive commodity demand that will follow a full reopening of China in the days following China’s new year.

    And indeed, early on Tuesday, China’s Securities Times reported that according to Liu Yuanchun, president of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economic, China will take “extrordinary” measures to stimulate growth, including selling special sovereign bonds next year as part of efforts to boost economic growth,

    The economy “faces extraordinary pressure in 2023 and we need to take some extraordinary policies,” the newspaper quoted Liu as saying. He also said the government may raise its budget deficit to more than 3% of gross domestic product. Liu expects M2 growth to come in at around 11.5% next year, providing rather sufficient liquidity support for the economy, according to the report

    The government may also “moderately” reduce new tax breaks next year to ensure fiscal sustainability as it continues to increase spending, said Shi Zhengwen, director of the Center for Research in Fiscal and Tax Law at China University of Political Science and Law.

    In other words, after a brief derailing, the stimmy train is back on the tracks and making its first stop in China, and soon everywhere else.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 19:32

  • Facebook Parent Settles Cambridge Analytica Data Harvesting Scandal For $725 Million
    Facebook Parent Settles Cambridge Analytica Data Harvesting Scandal For $725 Million

    Facebook parent Meta has agreed to settle a class-action lawsuit over the Cambridge Analytica data harvesting scandal for $725 million, or just under 2.5 days of revenue (based on Q3 figures).

    To recap – in 2014, Aleksandr Kogan of Cambridge University in the UK built a Facebook app that paid hundreds of thousands of users to take a psychological test. The app harvested not only the data of the test-taker, but the data of their Facebook friends as well. Kogan sold the resulting database of up to 50 million Americans to Cambridge Analytica, which provided analytical assistance to the 2016 presidential campaigns of Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.

    Facebook subsequently banned Cambridge Analytica, and in October 2019 agreed to pay the UK a £500,000 fine for exposing user data to a “serious risk of harm.”

    The $725 million settlement is the largest in a US data privacy class action, according to the BBC, citing attorneys.

    Meta said the settlement was “in the best interest of our community and shareholders,” adding “We look forward to continuing to build services people love and trust with privacy at the forefront.”

    As noted above, the settlement is “not that much” to the tech giant, author James Bell tells the BBC.

    “It’s less than a tenth of what it spent on its efforts to create ‘the metaverse’ last year alone,” he said, adding “So Meta probably won’t be too unhappy with this deal, but it does stand as a warning to social media companies that mistakes can prove very costly indeed.”

    The settlement is subject to approval by a federal judge in San Francisco.

    “This historic settlement will provide meaningful relief to the class in this complex and novel privacy case,” said lead lawyers Derek Loeser and Lesley Weaver, in a statement.

    The complaint was filed on behalf of a large proposed class of Facebook users, whose personal data on the social network was released to third parties without their consent.

    The class size is “in the range of 250-280 million” people, according to the ruling document, representing all Facebook users in the US during the “class period” which runs from 24 May, 2007 to 22 December, 2022.

    It is not clear how the plaintiffs would claim their share of the settlement. -BBC

    According to privacy and ethics researcher Janis Wong of the Alan Turing institute, the settlement would only amount to ‘two or three dollars’ per person if each affected individual submits a claim.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 19:00

  • THE TWITTER FILES: How Twitter Rigged The Covid Debate
    THE TWITTER FILES: How Twitter Rigged The Covid Debate

    Another day, another TWITTER FILES drop exposing the incestuous relationship between big tech and government.

    Today’s edition, dropped by journalist David Zweig, focuses on ‘how Twitter rigged the Covid debate‘ by taking direction from both the Trump and Biden administrations (while at the same time trying to censor the former president). What’s somewhat notable is how aggressive government (and ex-government) officials were in trying to stifle free speech, while Twitter’s non-government-linked employees would often push back (and then totally fold) – a theme we’ve observed in previous drops. In one such instance, former head of Twitter’s Trust & Safety team Yoel Roth tells former FBI lawyer and then-Twitter Deputy General Counsel Jim Baker to calm his tits over a Trump tweet.

    Of course, in the end the government typically got its way, as you will read below.

    Zweig, who was granted access to internal files while on assignment for The Free Press, notes that “both the Trump and Biden administrations directly pressed Twitter executives to moderate the platform’s pandemic content according to their wishes.“

    What’s more, the censorship effort extended to Google, Facebook, Microsoft and others.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsContinued via The Free Press (emphasis ours),

    In July 2021, then-U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy released a 22-page advisory concerning what the World Health Organization referred to as an “infodemic,” and called on social media platforms to do more to shut down “misformation.”

    “We are asking them to step up,” Murthy said. “We can’t wait longer for them to take aggressive action.” 

    That’s the message the White House had already taken directly to Twitter executives in private channels. One of the Biden administration’s first meeting requests was about Covid, with a focus on “anti-vaxxer accounts,” according to a meeting summary by Lauren Culbertson, Twitter’s Head of U.S. Public Policy.

    They were especially concerned about Alex Berenson, a journalist skeptical of lockdowns and mRNA vaccines, who had hundreds of thousands of followers on the platform:

    By the summer of 2021, the day after Murthy’s memo, Biden announced publicly that social media companies were “killing people” by allowing misinformation about vaccines. Just hours later, Twitter locked Berenson out of his account, and then permanently suspended him the next month. Berenson sued Twitter. He ultimately settled with the company, and is now back on the platform. As part of the lawsuit, Twitter was compelled to provide certain internal communications. They revealed that the White House had directly met with Twitter employees and pressured them to take action on Berenson. 

    The summary of meetings by Culbertson, emailed to colleagues in December 2022, adds new evidence of the White House’s pressure campaign, and illustrates how it tried to directly influence what content was allowed on Twitter. 

    Culbertson wrote that the Biden team was “very angry” that Twitter had not been more aggressive in deplatforming multiple accounts. They wanted Twitter to do more.

    Twitter executives did not fully capitulate to the Biden team’s wishes. An extensive review of internal communications at the company revealed that employees often debated moderation cases in great detail, and with more care for free speech than was shown by the government. 

    But Twitter did suppress views—and not just those of journalists like Berenson. Many medical and public health professionals who expressed perspectives or even cited findings from accredited academic journals that conflicted with official positions were also targeted. As a result, legitimate findings and questions about our Covid policies and their consequences went missing.

    There were three serious problems with Twitter’s process.

    First: Much of the content moderation on Covid, to say nothing of other contentious subjects, was conducted by bots trained on machine learning and AI. I spent hours discussing the systems with an engineer and with an executive who had been at the company for more than a year before Musk’s takeover. They explained the process in basic terms: Initially, the bots were fed information to train them on what to look for—but their searches would become more refined over time both as they scanned the platform and as they were manually updated with additional chosen inputs. At least that was the premise. Though impressive in their engineering, the bots would prove too crude for such nuanced work. When you drag a digital trawler across a social media platform, you’re not just catching cheap fish, you’re going to snag dolphins along the way.

    Second: Contractors operating in places like the Philippines were also moderating content. They were given decision trees to aid in their process, but tasking non-experts to adjudicate tweets on complex topics like myocarditis and mask efficacy data was destined for a significant error rate. The notion that remote workers, sitting in distant cube farms, were going to police medical information to this granular degree is absurd on its face.

    Embedded below is an example template—deactivated after Musk’s arrival—of the decision tree tool that contractors used. The contractor would run through a series of questions, each with a drop down menu, ultimately guiding them to a predetermined conclusion.

    Third: Most importantly, the buck stopped with higher level employees at Twitter. They chose the inputs for the bots and decision trees. They determined suspensions. And as is the case with all people and institutions, there was both individual and collective bias. 

    At Twitter, Covid-related bias bent heavily toward establishment dogmas. Inevitably, dissident yet legitimate content was labeled as misinformation, and the accounts of doctors and others were suspended both for tweeting opinions and demonstrably true information.

    Take, for example, Martin Kulldorff, an epidemiologist at Harvard Medical School. Dr. Kulldorff often tweeted views at odds with U.S. public health authorities and the American left, the political affiliation of nearly the entire staff at Twitter. 

    Here is one such tweet, from March 15, 2021, regarding vaccination.

    Internal emails show an “intent to action” by a Twitter moderator, saying Kulldorff’s tweet violated the company’s Covid-19 misinformation policy, and claimed he shared “false information.”

    But Kulldorff’s statement was an expert’s opinion—one that happened to be in line with vaccine policies in numerous other countries. 

    Yet it was deemed “false information” by Twitter moderators merely because it differed from CDC guidelines. After Twitter took action, Kulldorff’s tweet was slapped with a “misleading” label and all replies and likes were shut off, throttling the tweet’s ability to be seen and shared by others, a core function of the platform.

    In my review of internal files, I found numerous instances of tweets about vaccines and pandemic policies labeled as “misleading” or taken down entirely, sometimes triggering account suspensions, simply because they veered from CDC guidance or differed from establishment views. 

    For example, a tweet by @KelleyKga, a self-proclaimed public health fact checker with more than 18,000 followers, was flagged as “misleading,” and replies and likes disabled, for showing that Covid was not the leading cause of death in children, even though it cited the CDC’s own data.

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 18:44

  • FUD And Loathing In The Crypto Casino
    FUD And Loathing In The Crypto Casino

    Authored by Scott Hill via BombThrower.com,

    There is no fire at Binance yet, but the smoke is filling the building.

    Following the collapse of FTX all eyes have turned to the other opaque offshore exchanges, waiting and wondering which could be insolvent and about to detonate next. The similarities between FTX and Binance are numerous which is a major cause for concern. In the Crypto industry often where there’s smoke, there’s fire.

    Binance’s Similarities with FTX

    Both exchanges are located offshore, outside of the reach of major nation regulators. While FTX appears to have been cozy with the regulators in the Bahamas; Binance seems to have no fixed address, instead hopping between jurisdictions looking for friendly regulators along the way. This hasn’t been limited only to suspect jurisdictions like Dubai and Singapore, Binance most recently cozied up to regulators in France, gaining registration in the region as a home base for European operations.

    We have very little information in the corporate structure of Binance. What little we do know is that there appears to be a complex web of ownership and subsidiaries scattered across various jurisdictions.

    As Bloomberg put it in June: Binance “is based in who knows where and owned by god knows whom.”

    The similarity in the exchange tokens offered by each company is obvious. FTX famously offered their FTT token to give discounts to users on the front end. Behind the scenes the token allowed FTX and their associated hedge fund, Alameda Research, to functionally print their own collateral to take loans against and use to fund buyouts throughout the industry.

    Binance’s BNB token had similar origins, but has now moved on to become the ecosystem token for the fully fledged Ethereum competitor, Binance Smart Chain. There is no direct evidence that Binance has leveraged BNB in a similar way that FTX used FTT; but it’s not difficult to imagine some of the same balance sheet tricks have been used.

    We do know that Binance operates a large ecosystem incubator called Binance Launchpad. This program allows startups to access funding in exchange for launching their projects on Binance Smart Chain. Recently details have emerged indicating that in order to list tokens on Binance, projects would be required to post a sizeable insurance deposit with the exchange. These deposits would be denominated in BNB, adding additional demand for the token.

    Binance was the first money into FTX

    Back in 2019, when FTX was getting off the ground they took on Binance as their first strategic investor. The size of the Binance investment remains undisclosed but we do know that alongside this investment, Binance received a sizable allocation of FTT tokens.

    In July 2021, FTX suddenly bought out Binance’s stake, again for an undisclosed amount. What we didn’t know at the time was that despite raising $900M from fresh investors at the same time, FTX still funded a portion of the buyout using FTT tokens rather than fiat currency.

    Binance was building up a gigantic bag of FTT tokens.

    We all know what happened next, in November this year Binance CEO CZ announced that they would be divesting of their FTT tokens, crashing the market and shortly afterwards resulting in the bankruptcy of FTX.

    While this background is important, it doesn’t necessarily follow that Binance is also insolvent. The links between FTX and Binance are simply too deep to ignore. The similarities in strategy are too many to dismiss as merely a coincidence.

    It is entirely possible that Binance runs its business using exactly the same tricks as FTX but at a much larger scale.

    Have you got my money?

    Over the past several weeks, customers have decided to test the liquidity of Binance. After the collapse of FTX, Binance was one of the few exchanges that were seen as relatively trustworthy and saw inflows as users moved funds around. This all stopped recently when Binance published their “proof-of-reserves”.

    Binance tried to promote their proof-of reserves report as an audit. It was nothing of the sort.

    The report showed that Binance did indeed have some wallets with billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin in them. The report didn’t prove anything about non-Bitcoin assets and reserves. It didn’t prove how much the exchange owed to customers.

    The report didn’t even prove that Binance had control of the wallets.

    Industry figures immediately called Binance out. Kraken CEO Jesse Powell was particularly strong in his warning that the report proved basically nothing. The audit firm that conducted the report stopped working with Crypto firms shortly afterwards and deleted all of their publicly available Crypto reports, including the Binance reports.

    Does Binance have enough reserves? Probably, but customers weren’t waiting around to find out.

    In the week after the report was published, customers withdrew around $8B worth of assets. An additional $5B in assets flowed into the exchange, however some of these flows appeared to be emergency liquidity provided by other firms, used to service withdrawals. At one stage Binance halted withdrawals of USDC, claiming that they needed to wait for regular banking hours to top up their wallets.

    Just like FTX, customers were draining the funds out of Binance.

    Binance has largely serviced the withdrawals so far. That’s to be expected, it’s a gigantic entity and has a large amount of reserves. It might not have enough reserves to service withdrawals indefinitely, but for now the funds appear to be flowing.

    What’s different this time?

    Taking a closer look at the FTX run on deposits can give us some insight into how and why Binance might ultimately fail. The biggest difference between the two exchange runs is that the run on FTX began with a sell off in the exchange token, FTT. In contrast Binance’s BNB token has taken some punishment but the sell off has been nowhere near as extreme.

    If Binance is running the same shell game as FTX, they will be solvent until BNB drops in value.

    At FTX, the exchange token and various other Solana ecosystem tokens were the lifeblood of the exchange’s balance sheet. FTX and Alameda were holding FTT as a significant chunk of reserves, their internal financials were leveraged off FTT, and FTT was the major collateral held at external lenders.

    FTX only hit problems when that collateral value fell and lenders pulled their credit lines.

    According to Nansen, Binance holds around $54B in reserves. We don’t know what the liabilities attached to these assets are, but around $5.5B of these assets are BNB tokens. We know that Binance subsidizes margin loans for users using BNB as collateral. We know that 20% of BNB tokens are held off market and do not circulate (this is not uncommon for 2017-present era cryptos). We do not know how much of Binance’s business is based on leveraging BNB collateral. We have no idea whether Binance has an embedded market maker, like Alameda Research. We do know that Binance has cold wallets and reserves, while no one could ever find cold wallets for FTX.

    There isn’t an obvious problem with Binance so far, but if something is going to break over at Binance it will likely start with a rapid devaluation of BNB tokens, rather than a bank run.

    What happens next?

    Binance has already weathered a major run. BNB has drawn down by almost 30% since problems showed up at FTX in early November. The stress is palpable, but at the end of the day Binance is a juggernaut. It is the largest exchange by a long way. It has daily volumes an order of magnitude larger than all of its competitors bar Coinbase. We know there are reserves and the exchange has been servicing a huge amount of withdrawals with relatively small hiccups.

    I still don’t trust Binance. There is no reason to store your coins on Binance unless you are trading them.

    I fully expect that a gigantic amount of Binance’s business is leveraged off BNB being used as collateral, and that if the value of BNB drops too much it causes some major problems. But I don’t know for sure. In June, while the rest of the Crypto markets were blowing up BNB was defended strongly at $200. Make of that what you will.

    via call_me_cipher – published to TradingView Dec 17, 22

    Overall these problems at Binance feel a lot like previous waves of FUD surrounding Tether. The entire thing looks and seems dodgy, but over the last 5 years basically everyone who has been too enthusiastic and piled into shorts has been chewed up and spat out.

    The casino isn’t fair, but betting that the house will break is usually a losing bet.

    Stepping back, I don’t think that Binance will end up blowing up like FTX did. They don’t seem to be taking the same sorts of risk with their business operations. If there is an issue that ends up bringing down Binance it seems much more likely that a major regulatory crackdown does the just than just a run on deposits.

    There are plenty of angles that could get attacked by regulators. Binance operates a regulated Crypto on-ramp in a multitude of jurisdictions. They are allowed to accept bank deposits through these entities. Any major attempt to shut down Binance via these local on-ramps could have significant ripple effects throughout the rest of the Binance empire by constricting fresh deposits.

    For now, Binance looks the shakiest it has since 2018. They have giant reserves and regulatory obfuscation. They’ve also been playing this game for a long time and have grown the largest among competitors.

    That’s not a good excuse to leave your funds there. This is one you want to watch from the outside (Editor’s note: We’re so adamant you should be self-custodying your Bitcoin that we’ll even pay you to do it. )

    Eventually Binance could break, and I don’t want to wait to find out. For now, there is no fire. Only lots and lots of smoke.

    *  *  *

    Today’s post is from contributing analyst Scott Hill. To receive further updates of this series and our overall investment thesis for digital assets (even in this climate), subscribe to the Bombthrower mailing list.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 18:30

  • Rogan Guest Goes Viral After Exposing "Subhuman" And "Appalling" Cobalt Mining Conditions In Congo
    Rogan Guest Goes Viral After Exposing “Subhuman” And “Appalling” Cobalt Mining Conditions In Congo

    There is one part to the “green” EV revolution that we have written about – but that no one else is talking about: the incessant need for cobalt and the “appalling” way that the battery metal is mined and produced.

    After a recent Joe Rogan podcast that went out to the viral host’s 40 million plus listeners, we’re hopeful that dialogue may finally start to take place.

    Siddharth Kara, who is a Harvard visiting professor and also the author of “Cobalt Red: How The Blood of The Congo Powers Our Lives” took to the podcast last week with comments about cobalt mining that already have more than a million listens.

    He told Rogan that there’s no such thing as “clean cobalt” and that the term was “all marketing,” according to a wrap up of the podcast by the NY Post. He noted that the level of suffering of Congolese people working in cobalt mines was “astounding”, the report says.

    “I’ve never seen [a cobalt mine that did not rely on child labor or slavery] and I’ve been to almost all the major industrial cobalt mines,” he told Rogan. 

    Yet, modern demand for cobalt doesn’t look like it’s going to slow down any time soon. “Cobalt is in every single lithium, rechargeable battery manufactured in the world today,” Kara said to Rogan. 

    “Every smartphone, every tablet, every laptop and crucially, every electric vehicle” needs it, he noted. “We can’t function on a day-to-day basis without cobalt, and three-fourths of the supply is coming out of the Congo. And it’s being mined in appalling, heart-wrenching, dangerous conditions.” 

    “By and large the world doesn’t know what’s happening,” he continued. “…it just so happened that the Congo is sitting on more cobalt than the rest of the planet combined.”

    “Before anyone knew what was happening, [the] Chinese government [and] Chinese mining companies took control of almost all the big mines and the local population has been displaced,” he told Rogan. 

    “They dig in absolutely subhuman, gut-wrenching conditions for a dollar a day, feeding cobalt up the supply chain into all the phones, all the tablets, and especially electric cars.” 

    Meanwhile the report notes that the Biden administration recently “entered into an agreement with the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia” to help bolster the supply of such materials, despite these issues. 

    You can listen to the full comments here:

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 18:00

  • Netflix Customers Could Face Criminal Charges For Sharing Their Password
    Netflix Customers Could Face Criminal Charges For Sharing Their Password

    Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

    Netflix customers may soon face criminal charges for sharing their password next year.

    The popular streaming service is planning to put an end to password sharing beginning in early 2023, according to The Wall Street Journal.

    Netflix has been exploring ways to crack down on it for some time, and this is the first official notice that the changes will finally happen.

    The company claimed that out of the 222 million households around the world with valid subscriptions, there were at least “100 million additional households” using their services via password sharing.

    Households using Netflix through password sharing reportedly include more than 30 million households across the United States and Canada, Newsweek reported.

    Netflix offers shared accounts with separate profiles and multiple streams in its plans, but only people living under the same roof apply.

    The online media platform has been losing revenue for years to unauthorized password sharing, but it was willing to overlook the matter due to a surge in subscriptions over the past two years.

    However, revenue has been falling since the start of this year, as it faces its first drop in subscribers in a decade.

    The company has introduced fees for people sharing accounts not living in the same household in order to fight a decline in subscribers.

    Subscription sharing has also made it more difficult for the company to expand its service and productions into new markets, according to the company.

    The Netflix logo on top of their office building in Hollywood, Calif., on Jan. 20, 2022. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)

    Netflix’s terms of service had never allowed for multi-household sharing, which has read that it is the responsibility of “the member who created the Netflix account and whose payment method is charged” for any activity that occurs through the account.

    “To maintain control over the account and to prevent anyone from accessing the account, the account owner should maintain control over the Netflix ready devices … and not reveal the password or details of the payment method associated with the account to anyone,” according to the terms.

    “We can terminate your account or place your account on hold in order to protect you, Netflix or our partners from identity theft or other fraudulent activity.”

    At one time, it considered offering pay-per-view content to discourage those with accounts from sharing their passwords, but company executives voted against that plan.

    Netflix Executives Enforce Sharing Rules Due to Revenue Shortfall

    Meanwhile, Reed Hastings, the Netflix co-CEO,  decided it was now the time to act on the password-sharing issue, which was neglected for too long.

    His co-CEO Ted Sarandos agreed and said that the streaming service would finally crack down on it.

    Viewers generally oppose price hikes, and the company needs to find a way to handle the sharing issue so people will “see the value” in the company, Sarandos told CNBC.

    “There are folks who are enjoying Netflix, literally for free today,” said Sarandos.

    “So, they’re getting a lot of value out of it. I think they’ll be happy to have their own account.”

    Netflix will slowly phase out password sharing over time rather than ending it immediately so to avoid alienating customers and will ask those who share accounts with others outside of their household to start paying in 2023.

    Users Will Be Tracked to Enforce Restrictions on Non-Subscribing Users

    Those who continue to share an account outside the primary subscriber’s immediate household will have to pay additional fees under the new rules.

    Netflix said it may possibly charge just below its $6.99 ad-supported plan for non-household users to boost revenue and wants those who are sharing passwords illegally to sign up for their own subscription.

    The streaming service also expects to introduce other ad-supported subscription plans over time.

    For example, Netflix’s current premium plan allows for Ultra HD 4K streaming and support for watching on four supported devices like iPhones, iPads, and Macs at one time, as long as those devices are owned by people in the same household but it does not allow multiple viewers watching outside of the same household.

    The company will consider tracking particular information, such as Device IDs, IP addresses, and account activity, to help identify whether viewers are part of the same household to enforce the new rules, reported The Dallas Morning News.

    The online video service had been testing add-on payments for password sharing in some Latin American countries, with an additional $3 fee.

    The trial program reportedly makes primary account holders provide a verification code to anyone outside their household in order to access their account and repeatedly asks for the code until a monthly fee is paid to add non-household subscribers.

    A similar method may be imposed on users in North America next year.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 17:30

  • China Sends Record 71 Warplanes Near Taiwan In Show Of Force Aimed At US
    China Sends Record 71 Warplanes Near Taiwan In Show Of Force Aimed At US

    China has sent 71 warplanes and seven ships near Taiwan over a 24-hour period this weekend, which was intended as a clear warning signal in response to President Biden signing the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act, given it includes $10 billion in military grant assistance to Taiwan. 

    The majority of those warplanes are said to have crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, with the Taiwanese military counting 47 jets breaching the de facto boundary line. The threatening flights occurred between 6 a.m. Sunday and 6 a.m. Monday.

    A statement from the People’s Liberation Army’s  Eastern Theater Command included a rare direct reference to the United States and its deepening ties to Taipei. “This is a firm response to the current US-Taiwan escalation and provocation,” the Eastern Command statement said.

    Over the weekend, and while much of the West was celebrating the Christmas holiday, China’s Foreign Ministry elaborated its response to the NDAA passage, signed into law by President Biden Friday, just before the bulk of PLA aircraft buzzed the island, saying the new funding for more weapons for Taiwan “blatantly interferes in China’s internal affairs.”

    “This sends a gravely wrong signal to ​’​Taiwan independence​’​ separatist forces and severely affects peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan is China’s Taiwan. No external interference in China’s internal affairs will be tolerated​,” it said further.

    “The US needs to stop seeking to use Taiwan to contain China, stop fudging, distorting and hollowing out the one-China principle, and stop moving even further down the wrong and dangerous path​,” the foreign ministry continued.

    The latest sortie from the PLA included 18 J-16 fighter jets, 11 J-1 fighters, 6 Su-30 fighters and drones, according to Taiwan’s defense ministry, which typically scrambles its own fighters in response and uses coastal anti-air defense systems to monitor inbound activity.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    President Tsai Ing-wen in response vowed to bolster the island’s civil defense systems. “The more preparations we make, the less likely there will be rash attempts of aggression. The more united we are, the stronger and safer Taiwan would become,” Tsai ​said.​​

    On Friday the PLA military had sent 39 aircraft and three warships toward Taiwan. But Sunday into overnight Monday’s flights marked a record number of Chinese aircraft breaching Taiwan’s air defense identification zone over a single day period.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 17:00

  • Russia Willing To Resume Gas Supplies To Europe Via Yamal Pipeline
    Russia Willing To Resume Gas Supplies To Europe Via Yamal Pipeline

    By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

    Russia has said it’s willing to resume natural gas supplies to Europe through the Yamal-Europe Pipeline. The Yamal-Europe Pipeline usually flows westward but has been mostly reversed after Poland turned away from buying from Russia in favor of drawing on stored gas in Germany.

    “The European market remains relevant, as the gas shortage persists, and we have every opportunity to resume supplies. For example, the Yamal-Europe Pipeline, which was stopped for political reasons, remains unused” TASS has cited Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying. 

    Previously, state-owned gas producer Gazprom revealed that it expected to pump 43 million cubic meters of gas per day to Europe via Ukraine through Sudzha. Unfortunately, the pipeline blew up during planned maintenance work near the village of Kalinino, about 150 km (90 miles) west of the Volga city of Kazan. 

    To put the size of the pipeline in context, its run rate is a tiny portion of the 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas that Europe imported from Russia in 2021. Europe has managed to stockpile huge volumes of natural gas for the winter season, so much so that prices have tumbled sharply in recent months.

    Whereas supplies of Russian pipeline gas – the bulk of Europe’s gas imports before the Ukraine war – are down to a trickle, Europe has been hungrily scooping up Russian LNG in the meantime. The Wall Street Journal has reported that the bloc’s imports of Russian liquefied natural gas jumped by 41% Y/Y. Novak has revealed that in the 11 months of 2022, Russian LNG exports to Europe increased to 19.4 bcm, with the figure expected to hit 21 bcm by year-end.

    “Russian LNG has been the dark horse of the sanctions regime,” Maria Shagina, research fellow at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, told WSJ. Importers of Russian LNG to Europe have argued that the shipments are not covered by current EU sanctions and that buying LNG from Russia and other suppliers has helped keep European energy prices in check.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 16:30

  • Nio CEO Warns Of "Challenging" First Half To 2023 For The EV Maker
    Nio CEO Warns Of “Challenging” First Half To 2023 For The EV Maker

    Questions are already looming about the health of the auto market – and specifically the EV space – after it was announced just days ago that Tesla would be suspending operations at its key Shanghai plant for one day longer than expected this week.

    Now, it looks as though NIO is joining the party, with its CEO warning investors of a potentially rocky start to 2023 on the horizon. 

    Bloomberg reported on Sunday that Chief Executive Officer William Li said this week that the company could “face a challenging first half as a cut in government subsidies and the broader economic slowdown erode local demand in the world’s largest new-energy vehicle market”. 

    Li said that demand could be pulled forward to the end of 2022 as customers look to try and place vehicle orders before national subsidies run out. He made the comments in Hefei, Central China this week, also noting that that the residual effects of the pandemic continue to mire the company. 

    “It will also take time for both the supply chain and consumer confidence to recover from the pandemic,” he said.

    Though Li says he expects a “full recovery” by May or June, we’re not so sure. The industry looks bleak. For example, Tesla also announced last week it would be halting production for slightly longer than expected at its Shanghai plant this month.

    Additionally, just days ago we published commentary from an auto industry insider who said that a “massive wave” of car repossessions and loans defaults would soon be on the horizon in the United States. 

    As we noted in early December, for almost a year now, we have been dutifully tracking several key datasets within the auto sector to find the critical inflection point in this perhaps most leading of economic indicators which will presage not only a crushing auto loan crisis, but also signal the arrival of a full-blown recession, one which even the NBER won’t be able to ignore, as the US consumers are once again tapped out. We believe that moment has now arrived.

    But first, for those readers who are unfamiliar with the space, we urge you to read some of our recent articles on the topic of car prices – which alongside housing, has been the biggest driver of inflation in the past 18 months – and more specifically how these are funded by the US middle class, i.e., car loans, and last but not least, the interest rate paid for said loans. Here are a few places to start:

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 16:05

  • The Rise And Fall Of The Great Powers – 35 Years Later
    The Rise And Fall Of The Great Powers – 35 Years Later

    Authored by Francis Sempa va RealClearDefense.com,

    Thirty-five years ago, Yale historian Paul Kennedy’s The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers was released to widespread acclaim.

    It was (and is) riveting history, explaining the interaction of economics, geopolitics, and social momentum in international relations since the 16th century. One of the main themes of Kennedy’s history was the concept of imperial overstretch – that the relative decline of great powers often resulted from an imbalance between a nation’s resources and commitments. And Kennedy opined that the United States needed to worry about its own imperial overstretch.

    Kennedy summarized his historical findings with a passage that has great relevance to 21st century global politics:

    [I]t has been a common dilemma facing previous “number one” countries that even as their economic strength is ebbing, the growing foreign challenges to their position have compelled them to allocate more and more of their resources into the military sector, which in turn squeezes our productive investment and, over time, leads to the downward spiral of slower growth, heavier taxes, deepening domestic splits overspending priorities, and a weakening capacity to bear the burdens of defense.

    The timing of Kennedy’s book was bad. It appeared in 1987, yet two years later the United States won its long Cold War victory over the Soviet Union.

    How could the U.S. be in decline when it just won an historic victory in what President John F. Kennedy called the “long twilight struggle?” But Paul Kennedy’s history was sound. Great power decline, as Kennedy showed in his survey of five centuries of international politics, usually takes a long time – often centuries. And “decline” in international politics is a relative term – a great power declines usually in relation to other powers. Decline does not mean collapse – though that sometimes happened–but it does signal a shift in the global balance of power.

    And great power statesmen rarely appreciate that decline. President George H. W. Bush declared a “new world order” after the fall of the Soviet empire. His son, President George W. Bush, after the September 11, 2001, attacks made it U.S. policy to spread democracy throughout the world. He launched the Global War on Terror and the United States fought two long wars that in the end accomplished very little. In the meantime, China was rising economically and militarily, and soon would begin to flex its geopolitical muscles in the western Pacific and across Eurasia.

    Kennedy’s book took the long view of history. Unipolar moments–a term coined by Charles Krauthammer–are just that: brief moments in history that do not erase long term trends. It is arguable that America’s decline began when President Woodrow Wilson and congress made the United States a belligerent in the First World War. Wilson and his “progressive” cohorts started the U.S. on the path to globalism, which after a brief interlude in the 1920s, was continued under Franklin Roosevelt’s administration which attracted “progressives” by the thousands to Washington, D.C., and government service. “Progressives” think they can use national power to make the world a perfect place. James Burnham brilliantly captured the progressive approach when he noted that progressives like Eleanor Roosevelt treat the world as their slum.

    Our victory in World War II disguised that decline – it was another unipolar moment where the United States’ power appeared unchallenged relative to other great powers. The Truman administration took imperial overstretch to new limits. As Walter Lippmann and later George Kennan pointed out, the Truman Doctrine was a globalist’s delight, and its global reach required the institutionalization of the national security state–what President Eisenhower later called the “military-industrial complex.” Eisenhower knew all about the military-industrial complex – he had been a part of it since the beginning of the Cold War and observed its growth and growing influence during his presidency.

    It was Richard Nixon and his top foreign policy aide Henry Kissinger who recognized the existence of long-term relative decline that Paul Kennedy later wrote about in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. Nixon and Kissinger understood history and the realities of international politics in Toynbeean terms. That is why they simultaneously pursued the opening to China and detente with the Soviet Union. Eurasia had to remain geopolitically pluralistic for the United States to be secure. Korea and Vietnam were symptoms of decline – wars that perhaps we should not have fought, or that we should not have had to fight, and that we refused to win, but that fed the beast of the military-industrial complex. And the roots of those wars also extended back to the Truman administration’s catastrophic “loss of China.”

    Some observers in 1949 – including Eisenhower, General Douglas MacArthur, and then-congressman Richard Nixon – recognized how disastrous the communist victory in China was to future American security. Taking the long view of history, our “tie” in Korea and loss in Vietnam pale in significance to the loss of China because China’s rise in the 21st century may end up being the proximate cause of America’s relative decline.

    Toward the end of The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, Kennedy expressed the then-controversial belief that great power wars were not a thing of the past. “Those who assume that mankind would not be so foolish as to become involved in another ruinously expensive Great Power war perhaps need reminding that that belief was also widely held for much of the nineteenth century.” For three decades after the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States thought and acted as if great power wars were behind us. It took the Trump administration’s national security strategists – especially Elbridge Colby – to redirect our national defense strategy toward great power competition. Our sleepwalk through history ended with the simultaneous challenges of China and Russia. Paul Kennedy’s great book deserves to be remembered as a warning that the “end of history” is a dream.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 15:40

  • Bah Humbug
    Bah Humbug

    By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

    There hasn’t been much of a “Santa” rally this year unless you consider a 0.2% drop (in a volatile week) on the S&P 500 a good thing. I would not call that a rally, especially with the Nasdaq down almost 2% on the week and the 10-year Treasury finishing 25 bps higher at 3.75%.

    The 10-year move made sense because a sub 3.5% yield seemed aggressive (even for someone as pessimistic on the economy and the inflation story as me). We also had the BOJ surprise everyone by allowing their bonds to move to higher yields. That is generally a good thing as I prefer “free-er” markets rather than those controlled by central banks. It caused global yields to pop higher, though Japan (with barely any inflation) shouldn’t directly cause this to spread. The risk is that yen denominated bond buyers, who have been buying dollar (and presumably euro) bonds and hedging the FX risk, could go on a bigger “buyer strike” than they’ve already been on. Alternatively, they could start selling foreign bonds when their FX hedges roll off since they can now achieve a modicum of yield directly in JGBs further out on the curve (this would be an even worse outcome). That is a risk I’m watching out for and think that while it will pressure yields, it is unlikely to be the key driver.

    For the stock market (which seemed to oscillate back and forth) there were three main stories:

    • There were numerous stories about JHEQX (a large mutual fund) having to roll over a large options trade into year-end (which is part of their strategy). The “vol killer,” according to Bloomberg on December 20th, “pegged” the S&P 500 to the 3,835 level (it closed at 3,844). It would be nice to see a quiet week going into year-end so we can have the only quiet week of 2022! Seriously, it is difficult to remember any week that didn’t have high volatility this year.
    • The question of whether “good news” is “good” or “bad” seems to have been answered last week: “It depends.” It seemed exceptionally hard to tease a consistent narrative out of stocks last week, but we can blame it on “thin liquidity” rather than “not paying enough attention.”
    • Tesla has lost almost $600 billion in market cap since mid-September and lost about $225 billion since the start of December. I don’t follow single stocks as a rule, but this move has caused a lot of chatter (mainly on Twitter) and weighed on broader markets (the Nasdaq 100 was down 8.7% on the month versus a 4% decline for the Dow).

    So, as we head into the last week of the year, I will try to end this abbreviated T-Report with a bright spot (which goes against my cynical nature). Maybe with Ukraine still grabbing headlines and impacting energy markets and Europe, we will get a “Saint Nicholas” rally into January 7th as opposed to the traditional “Santa” rally.

    I still expect that inflation will show signs of dropping (possibly off a cliff if you annualize recent data rather than looking at annual data). For more of our thoughts on this, please see Q1 Deflation, 2 + 2 = 5, The Rise and Fall of Inflation Factors, and Why We’d Be Lucky To Get a “Squishy” Landing). I still think that this all ends with a big “risk-off” trade (lower yields and new lows for stocks), but I’m trying to be jolly and hoping for one more good rally in which to sell stocks (I like bonds here)!

    In case you missed it last week (and have some time today):

    Even if markets aren’t spreading that holiday cheer, I hope that you and your families are enjoying this time to the fullest.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/26/2022 – 15:15

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Dec 26

Today’s News 26th December 2022

  • Disinformation, Censorship, And Information Warfare In The 21st Century
    Disinformation, Censorship, And Information Warfare In The 21st Century

    Authored by Michael Senger via Brownstone Institute,

    All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”

    – Sun Tzu, the Art of War

    In recent years, prominent national security officials and media outlets have raised alarm about the unprecedented effects of foreign disinformation in democratic countries. In practice, what they mean is that democratic governments have fallen behind in their command of the methods of information warfare in the early 21st century. As outlined herein, while information warfare is a real and serious issue facing democratic governments in the 21st century, the war on disinformation, as currently practiced, has backfired spectacularly and done far more harm than good, as evidenced most clearly by the response to COVID-19.

    We begin with the definitions and history of a few key terms: Censorship, free speech, misinformation, disinformation, and bots.

    Censorship and Free Speech

    Censorship is any deliberate suppression or prohibition of speech, whether for good or ill. In the United States and countries which have adopted its model, censorship induced by governments and their appendages is constitutionally prohibited except in the narrow category of “illegal speech”—e.g., obscenity, child exploitation, speech abetting criminal conduct, and speech that incites imminent violence.

    Because censorship involves the exercise of power to silence another individual, censorship is inherently hierarchical. A person who lacks the power to silence another cannot censor them. For this reason, censorship inherently reinforces existing power structures, whether rightly or wrongly.

    Though the United States may be the first country to have enshrined the right to free speech in its constitution, the right to free speech developed over centuries and predates the Western Enlightenment. For example, the right to speak freely was inherent to the democratic practices of the political classes in Ancient Greece and Ancient Rome, even if it was not enshrined in words. This is only logical; because these systems treated all members of the political class as equals, no member of the political class had the power to censor another except with the consent of the body politic.

    The right to free speech developed and receded in fits and starts over the coming centuries for a number of reasons; but in accordance with George Orwell’s view of institutional evolution, free speech developed primarily because it afforded an evolutionary advantage to the societies in which it was practiced. For example, the political equality among Medieval British lords in their early parliamentary system necessitated free speech among them; by the 19th century, the cumulative benefits of this evolutionary advantage would help make Britain the world’s primary superpower. The United States arguably went a step further by enshrining free speech in its constitution and extending it to all adults, affording the United States a still greater evolutionary advantage.

    By contrast, because censorship depends on and reinforces existing power structures, censors tend especially to target those who seek to hold power to account. And, because the advancement of human civilization is essentially one unending struggle to hold power to account, this censorship is inherently incompatible with human progress. Civilizations that engage in widespread censorship therefore tend to stagnate.

    Misinformation

    Misinformation is any information that is not completely true, regardless of the intent behind it. A flawed scientific study is one form of misinformation. An imperfect recollection of past events is another.

    Technically, under the broadest definition of “misinformation,” all human thoughts and statements other than absolute mathematical axioms are misinformation, because all human thoughts and statements are generalizations based on subjective beliefs and experiences, none of which can be considered perfectly true. Moreover, no particular levels or “degrees” of misinformation can be readily defined; the relative truth or falsity of any information exists on a continuum with infinite degrees.

    Accordingly, because virtually all human thoughts and statements can be defined as misinformation, a prerogative to identify and censor misinformation is extraordinarily broad, depending entirely on the breadth of the definition of “misinformation” employed by the censor in any given instance. Because no particular “degrees” of misinformation can be defined, an official with a license to censor misinformation could censor virtually any statement at any time and justify their action, correctly, as having censored misinformation. In practice, because no man is an angel, this discretion inherently comes down to the biases, beliefs, loyalties, and self-interests of the censor.

    Disinformation

    Disinformation is any information shared by a person who knows it to be false. Disinformation is synonymous with lying.

    Disinformation goes back centuries and is far from limited to the Internet. For example, according to Virgil, toward the end of the Trojan War, the Greek warrior Sinon presented the Trojans with a wooden horse that the Greeks had supposedly left behind as they fled—without informing the hapless Trojans that the horse was, in fact, filled with the Greeks’ finest warriors. Sinon could rightly be considered one of history’s first accounts of a foreign disinformation agent.

    In a more modern example of disinformation, Adolf Hitler convinced Western leaders to cede the Sudetenland by making the false promise, “We want no Czechs.” But just a few months later, Hitler took all of Czechoslovakia without a fight. As it turned out, Hitler did want Czechs, and much more besides.

    Technically, disinformation can come just as easily from a source either foreign or domestic, though how such disinformation should be treated—from a legal perspective—is very dependent on whether the disinformation had a foreign or domestic source. Because the greatest challenge in distinguishing simple misinformation from deliberate disinformation is the intent of the speaker or writer, identifying disinformation presents all the same challenges that people have faced, since time immemorial, in identifying lies.

    Is a statement more likely to be a lie, or disinformation, if someone has been paid or otherwise incentivized or coerced to say it? What if they’ve wrongly convinced themselves that the statement is true? Is it enough that they merely should have known the statement is untrue, even if they didn’t have actual knowledge? If so, how far should an ordinary person be expected to go to find out the truth for themselves?

    Just like lying, disinformation is generally considered negative. But in certain circumstances, disinformation can be heroic. For example, during the Second World War, some German citizens hid their Jewish friends for years while telling Nazi officials that they did not know of their whereabouts. Because of circumstances like these, the right to lie, except when under oath or in furtherance of a crime, is inherent to the right to free speech—at least for domestic purposes.

    Defining “foreign disinformation” further complicates the analysis. Is a statement “foreign disinformation” if a foreign entity invented the lie, but it was shared by a domestic citizen who was paid to repeat it, or who knew it was a lie? What if the lie was invented by a foreign entity, but the domestic citizen who shared it did not know it was a lie? All these factors must be considered in correctly defining foreign and domestic disinformation and separating it from mere misinformation.

    Bots

    The traditional definition of an online bot is a software application that posts automatically. However, in common usage, “bot” is more often used to describe any anonymous online identity who is secretly incentivized to post according to specific narratives on behalf of an outside interest, such as a regime or organization.

    This modern definition of “bot” can be difficult to pin down. For example, platforms like Twitter permit users to have several accounts, and these accounts are allowed to be anonymous. Are all of these anonymous accounts bots? Is an anonymous user a “bot” solely by virtue of the fact that they’re beholden to a regime? What if they’re merely beholden to a corporation or small business? What level of independence separates a “bot” from an ordinary anonymous user? What if they have two accounts? Four accounts?

    The most sophisticated regimes, such as China’s, have vast social media armies consisting of hundreds of thousands of employees who post to social media on a daily basis using VPNs, allowing them to conduct vast disinformation campaigns involving hundreds of thousands of posts in a very short timespan without ever resorting to automated bots in the traditional sense. Thus, Chinese disinformation campaigns are impossible to stop algorithmically, and even difficult to identify with absolute certainty. Perhaps for this reason, whistleblowers have reported that social media companies like Twitter have effectively given up on trying to police foreign bots—even while they pretend to have the issue under control for purposes of public relations.

    Information Warfare in the Present Day

    Owing to the seriousness with which they’ve studied the methods of information warfare, and perhaps to their long mastery of propaganda and linguistics for purposes of exercising domestic control, authoritarian regimes such as China’s appear to have mastered disinformation in the early 21st century to a degree with which Western national security officials can’t compete—similar to how the Nazis mastered the methods of 20th century disinformation before their democratic rivals.

    The magnitude and effects of these foreign disinformation campaigns in the present day are difficult to measure. On the one hand, some argue that foreign disinformation is so ubiquitous as to be largely responsible for the unprecedented political polarization that we see in the present day. Others approach these claims with skepticism, arguing that the specter of “foreign disinformation” is being used primarily as a pretext to justify Western officials’ suppression of free speech in their own countries. Both arguments are valid, and both are true to varying degrees and in various instances.

    The best evidence that national security officials’ alarm about foreign disinformation is justified is, ironically, an example so egregious that they have yet to acknowledge it happened, seemingly out of embarrassment and fear of the political fallout: The lockdowns of spring 2020. These lockdowns weren’t part of any democratic country’s pandemic plan and had no precedent in the modern Western world; they appear to have been instigated by officials with strange connections to China based solely on China’s false claim that their lockdown was effective in controlling COVID in Wuhan, assisted in no small part by a vast propaganda campaign across legacy and social media platforms. It’s therefore essentially axiomatic that the lockdowns of spring 2020 were a form of foreign disinformation. The catastrophic harms that resulted from these lockdowns prove just how high the stakes in 21st century information warfare can be.

    That said, the astonishing failure of Western officials to acknowledge the catastrophe of lockdowns seems to speak to their unseriousness in actually winning the 21st century information war, justifying skeptics’ arguments that these officials are merely using foreign disinformation as a pretext to suppress free speech at home.

    For example, after the catastrophic lockdowns of spring 2020, not only did national security officials never acknowledge foreign influence on lockdowns, but on the contrary we saw a small army of national security officials actually engaging in domestic censorship of well-credentialed citizens who were skeptical of the response to COVID—effectively exacerbating the effects of the lockdown disinformation campaign and, conspicuously, making their own countries even more like China.

    The Orwellian pretext for this vast domestic censorship apparatus is that, because there is no way to properly identify or control foreign social media bots, foreign disinformation has become so ubiquitous within Western discourse that federal officials can only combat it by surreptitiously censoring citizens for what the officials deem to be “misinformation,” regardless of the citizens’ motivations. These officials have thus deemed well-qualified citizens who oppose the response to COVID-19 to be spreading “misinformation,” a term which can encompass virtually any human thought or statement. Depending on their underlying motivations and loyalties, the actions of these officials in surreptitiously censoring “misinformation” may have even been an intentional part of the lockdown disinformation campaign; if so, this speaks to the multi-level complexity and sophistication of information warfare in the 21st century.

    There are signs that some of the primary actors in this vast censorship apparatus were not, in fact, acting in good faith. For example, Vijaya Gadde, who previously oversaw censorship operations at Twitter and worked closely with federal officials to censor legal and factual speech, was being paid over $10 million per year to act in this role. While the dynamics and definitions of misinformation and disinformation are philosophically complex, and Gadde may have legitimately not understood them, it’s also possible that $10 million per year was sufficient to buy her “ignorance.”

    These problems are exacerbated by the fact that honest institutional leaders in Western countries, typically of an older generation, often don’t fully appreciate or understand the dynamics of information warfare in the present day, seeing it as primarily a “Millennial” problem and delegating the task of monitoring social media disinformation to younger people. This has opened up a promising path for young career opportunists, many of whom have no particular legal or philosophical expertise on the nuances of misinformation, disinformation, and free speech, but who make lucrative careers out of simply telling institutional leaders what they want to hear. As a result, throughout the response to COVID-19, we saw the horrifying effects of disinformation effectively being laundered into our most venerated institutions as policy.

    Winning the 21st Century Information War

    While the dynamics of information warfare in the early 21st century are complex, the solutions need not be. The idea that online platforms have to be open to users of all countries largely harkens back to a kind of “kumbaya” early-Internet ideal that engagement between peoples of all nations would render their differences irrelevant—similar to late-19th century arguments that the Industrial Revolution had made war a thing of the past. Regardless of how widespread foreign disinformation may actually be, the fact that national security officials have secretly constructed a vast apparatus to censor Western citizens for legal speech, supposedly due to the ubiquity of foreign disinformation, lays bare the farcical notion that online engagement would resolve differences between nations.

    It’s morally, legally, and intellectually repugnant that federal officials in the United States have constructed a vast apparatus for censoring legal speech, bypassing the First Amendment—without informing the public—on the pretext that the activities of foreign regimes which have been deliberately permitted on our online platforms have gotten so out of control. If foreign disinformation is anywhere near that ubiquitous in our online discourse, then the only solution is to ban access to online platforms from China, Russia, and other hostile countries that are known to engage in organized disinformation operations.

    Because the effects of foreign disinformation can’t be accurately measured, the actual impact of banning access to our online platforms from hostile countries isn’t clear. If disinformation alarmists are correct, then banning access from hostile countries could have a significant ameliorative effect on political discourse in democratic nations. If skeptics are correct, then banning access from hostile countries might not have much effect at all. Regardless, if federal officials really don’t think there’s any way to allow users in hostile countries to access our online platforms without circumscribing the United States Constitution, then the choice is clear. Any marginal benefit that’s gained from interactions between Western citizens and users in hostile countries is vastly outweighed by the need to uphold the Constitution and the principles of the Enlightenment.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 23:30

  • Crematory Overrun In Beijing's Southeastern District, Burning 150 Bodies Daily: Reports
    Crematory Overrun In Beijing’s Southeastern District, Burning 150 Bodies Daily: Reports

    Authored by Sophia Lam via The Epoch Times,

    A crematory in the Tongzhou District of Beijing announced a limit to bodies of non-residents, according to Beijing Youth Daily Thursday.

    The crematory has to “maintain cremation equipment” and accepts a maximum of 20 bodies daily from people who don’t have district residence certificates and have died in hospitals outside of the district, a notice posted by the crematory says.

    The Civil Affairs Bureau of Tongzhou District told Beijing Youth Daily on Dec. 22 that the district crematory has been overwhelmed due to an increase of bodies to be cremated.

    “In the past, the daily workload [of the Tongzhou Crematory] was about 40 corpses. Now employees have to work overtime to cremate 140 to 150 bodies every day,” the state-run media wrote, adding that the crematory is short of staffers as some of its employees have been infected by COVID.

    Waiting Time 7 Days

    Overseas media have also reported on the overloaded operation of the crematory.

    “We are very busy every day; we have never been so busy before,” Mr. Lin, a staffer working at Beijing’s Babaoshao Crematorium, told The Epoch Times on Dec. 14.

    When speaking with the Chinese language edition of The Epoch Times in an earlier interview, Ms. Liu, an employee working at Tongzhou Crematory, said that the cremation waiting time was seven days and that the farewell ceremony had been canceled.

    A coffin is loaded from a hearse into a storage container at the Dongjiao crematorium and funeral home, one of several in the city that handles COVID-19 cases in Beijing, China, on Dec. 18, 2022. (Getty Images)

    Reuters reported Wednesday “a steady queue of around 40 hearses” waiting for cremation and “a full parking lot” at Tongzhou Crematory.

    Other funeral homes and crematoriums in Beijing have reportedly been extremely busy since mid-December, with a cremation waiting time of five days to 11 days.

    Contrary to the overwhelming crematories in Beijing, China’s National Health Commission announced a total of 550 COVID cases in Beijing on Dec. 22. It reported no death for the day.

    In less-densely populated China’s northeastern Liaoning Province, cremating waiting time is reportedly at least two days in its provincial capital Shenyang. Residents have to seek workarounds such as cremating their loved ones in more remote county funeral homes and paying higher fees for the cremation and funeral services.

    The contradictory numbers trigger doubts about an earlier time of the outbreak of the new wave of the pandemic and a more severe situation.

    Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported on Dec. 19 that there were large-scale infections in the medical system in Beijing, citing a high-level official in Beijing’s political and legal system. The Chinese official said that Beijing covered up the serious epidemic due to the maintenance of stability during the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th national congress, which was convened in October in the capital.

    The WHO’s emergencies director Mike Ryan said at a press briefing in Geneva on Dec. 14 that the virus was spreading “intensively” in China long before the lifting of zero-COVID measures, reported Reuters.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 22:45

  • Dave Collum's 2022 Year In Review, Part 2: The War In Ukraine & How Does It End?
    Dave Collum’s 2022 Year In Review, Part 2: The War In Ukraine & How Does It End?

    Authored by David B. Collum, Betty R. Miller Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology – Cornell University (Email: dbc6@cornell.edu, Twitter: @DavidBCollum),

    Hello darkness my old friend. I come to talk with you again.

    ~ Simon and Garfunkle in The Sounds of Silence

    This Year in Review is brought to you by Pfizer, FTX, and Raytheon…

    Every year, David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year’s is no exception, with Dave striking again in his usually poignant and delightfully acerbic way.

    Read Part 1: 2022 Year in Review: All Roads Lead to Ukraine here…

    To download this Part 2 as a pdf, 2022 The Year in Review: The War in Ukraine.

    The War in Ukraine

    The decision of one man to launch a wholly unjustified and brutal invasion of Iraq…I mean of Ukraine… 1

    ~ Former President George W. Bush, Freudian slipping

    We are on the cusp of WWIII, what could become the most inclusive war in history, with world leaders who seem incapable of orchestrating a decisive paintball attack. Like so many, I rely on geopolitical events to learn about politics and geography. Task #1: figure out where Ukraine is located on a map. I stumbled upon this top-secret Pentagon strategy map:

    Oh my God. They have already removed Russia! Task #2: resolve spelling and grammar issues. Is it Ukraine or The Ukraine; Odesa or Odessa; Kiev or Kyiv; Zelensky, Zelenskiy, or Zelenskyy; Donbas or Donbass; and Dumbass or Biden? First disclaimer: there is no chance that I can understand a border war in or near the Baltics. I take solace in that y’all are in the same boat. I am grand theorizing—creating big narratives for a hopelessly complex topic—describing the World According to Dave. I am layers into the onion but doubtlessly layers away from truths because I am fishing shit off the internet about a war said by the legendary journalist John Pilger and filmmaker Oliver Stone to be the most propaganda-slathered war in their lifetimes. 2,3 My immutable rule of thumb: if their lips are moving they are lying.

    War cannot be reduced to distinction between good guys and bad guys. 4

    ~ Pope Francis

    We can all agree that the list of victims in this war is non-statistically populated by Ukrainians. They are dying, and their world is being upended. If, however, you think that this is a simple story about good versus evil, you need a CT scan. I am especially talking to the devout members of the Sanctimony-Industrial Complex—Eric Hoffer’s fanatical True Believers—who will take any opportunity to be part of a grand movement to elevate their lives by signaling their virtue. I was on a Zoom call with a member of the clergy in which he stated that “it is Putin’s fault because Putin attacked.” I curtly told that punk-ass zealot—quite an impressive one actually— “If I have some guy in my face, and it is clear that this is not going to resolve well, my immediate goal becomes finding a way to land the first punch to ensure there is no second punch.” (I did say that.) Months later I discovered that I had inadvertently paraphrased Putin. If you think Putin is, by definition, wrong because he attacked first, you have neither read much nor thought very deeply about the Ukraine conflict or the origins of wars.

    We could have hit Saudi Arabia—it was part of that bubble—could have hit Pakistan. We hit Iraq because we could. 5

    ~ Thomas Friedman, author and The Great Pontificator

    When I get caught in conversations with those with certainty about Russia as the only instigator, I resort to moral equivalency and ask, “Which sovereign state bombed more countries and killed more people over the last two decades, the U.S. or Russia? The U.S. has militarily intervened 251 times since 1991. 6 The Obama administration bombed seven Muslim countries. Bush Jr. killed upwards of a million Iraqis. Which of those countries attacked us? (Hint: none.) The US conducted three consecutive days of airstrikes in Syria this year. The Pentagon said, “these strikes are a message to Tehran.” 7,8 That’s so odd because I didn’t even realize Tehran is in Syria, or did we bomb one country to send a message to a different country? I can hear somebody saying, “But…but…but…they were dangerous because…” Oh shut the fuck up, and go hum a few bars of Crimea River, Justin. 9 That does not give us the right to bomb them back to the stone age. There are many countries with nukes that we don’t bomb. Here are Leslie Stahl and Secretary of State Madeline Albright comparing notes on the Iraq War: 10

    Lesley Stahl: We have heard that a half million [Iraqi] children have died. I mean, that’s more children than died in Hiroshima. And, you know, is the price worth it?

    Madeleine Albright: I think this is a very hard choice, but the price–we think the price is worth it.

    You’re right Madeline: nobody gives a shit about brown people anyway, what Chris Hedges sarcastically calls “bad victims” unworthy of our empathy. Check out this montage of virtuous members of the US press expressing why we should care about the Ukrainians unlike other victims—they are like us! 11 By the way, while Madeline was green-lighting the slaughter of children, does anyone remember the Western press airing footage of those atrocities? Any photos of the half-million bloated and dismembered carcasses of children? Agree with Madeline if you like, but statistically speaking, the U.S. leaders are the ones who should be taken to the Hague for crimes against humanity.

    The greatest crime since World War II has been U.S. foreign policy.

    ~ Ramsey Clark, former U.S. Attorney General

    So, here is my advice to the sanctimonious: drop the holier-than-thou ‘tude when you are talking about this war. While you are at it, ponder why y’all justified punishing musicians and conductors, 12,13 professional athletes, 14 or just wealthy people 15,16,17 simply because they have Roosky heritage. For Christ’s sake: why not lock them in barracks for the duration of the war like the Japanese Americans? Bombing a Russian cultural center in Paris seems a tad excessive. 18 Facebook and Instagram adjusted their hate speech policy to allow users to incite violence against Russians and Russian soldiers and turned off the spigot for anything that smacked of pro-Russia. 19 All this should seem a little jingoistic even for the most sanctimonious. 20 As an aside, are the neo-Marxists on college campuses monitoring Russian students’ well-being, or are they only concerned about Ukrainians?

    As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we have temporarily made allowances for forms of political expression that would normally violate our rules like violent speech such as ‘death to the Russian invaders.’21

    ~ Facebook

    Take a peek at this 2022 vintage documentary 21 about a very quirky 1985 film entitled, “Come and See” 22 illustrating Russia’s experience with the horrors of war. While watching our elite try to bend Russians to our will at the expense of the Ukrainians, don’t forget that nobody knows how to suffer like a Russian. Then, lighten it up with this British comedy skit that asks the rhetorical question, “How do we know we are not the baddies?” 23

    The notion that a political leader, or anyone for that matter, is entirely bad or good, is puerile. The same consideration can be given to nation-states, political systems or even models of world order. The character of a human being, a nation or a system of global governance is better judged by their or its totality of actions. 24

    ~ Iain Davis, independent investigative journalist

    Wars are never simple. Recall that we got into the 2003 Iraq War owing to fake stories about babies being stabbed in incubators, 25 bullshit evidence of weapons of mass destruction (which, I should reiterate, does not give us the right to bomb a country), and intel from a deep source named “Curveball” who would say anything in exchange for a few of the C-notes shipped to Fallujah on pallets by the CIA. 26 Or maybe go back further to consider:

    • the U.S. baiting the Germans to sink the arms-laden Lusitania to enter WWI; 27

    • the fully provoked attack by the Japanese through a door left wide open at Pearl Harbor to enter WWII; 28

    • the Gulf of Tonkin fiasco to get us into Vietnam; 29

    • Even the Gulf War, while ostensibly to liberate the Kuwaitis from the evil Saddam Hussein, which was a trap set by our State Department: 30

    We have no opinion on your Arab-Arab conflicts, such as your dispute with Kuwait. Secretary [of State James] Baker has directed me to emphasize the instruction, first given to Iraq in the 1960s, that the Kuwait issue is not associated with America.ref 31

    ~ April Glaspie, U.S. Ambassador April Glaspie, setting the trap on Saddam to invade Kuwait

    If you want the accepted War in Ukraine narrative, turn on CNN or MSNBC. My strategy was to examine the events that pre-date the Drums of War. After the War in Ukraine began, the media coverage was bullshit (and turtles) all the way down.

    In the following sections, I’ll talk about my sources and delineate the key players in this drama. We’ll then wander through some contemporary events that run counter to the mainstream narrative. Just to reiterate: from a dead cold start, there is no way I got the whole story correct. I can, however, offer up pieces of a huge jigsaw puzzle that seem to match up. I identify as a Reagan Republican, not some commie dog, although I appear to be playing one on the internet. Woof. I am challenging conventional wisdom because I wish to fulfill our dreams of being the good guys.

    While trying to sort out such complex stories, I avoid reading books. I want to assemble a narrative rather than reiterate somebody else’s. Of course, even the pieces have embedded narratives and may be laced with propaganda. It is my compromise. However, I broke my no-book rule this time by reading The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin by Steven Myers 1 recommended by America’s favorite Roosky, Lex Fridman. I must admit it seemed remarkably balanced and unbiased until the moment Putin was elected President. From that page on, Myers had nothing favorable to say—not one positive word. It was as though a new author took control, some aggressive editing was inserted, or the Zebra changed the color of his stripes at that moment. I am still looking for a book that is neither pro- nor anti-Putin. A 6-part psychoanalysis of Putin was overconfidently overstated and biased to the core, but it had some interesting logic. 2

    Some useful source materials include documentaries such as “Ukrainian Agony,” 3 “Ukraine–Masks of the Revolution,” 4 especially Oliver Stone’s “Ukraine on Fire” (2016), 5 and Stone’s discussion of Putin with Lex Fridman. 6 I also binge-watched every Putin interview and speech I could find including Stone’s multi-part interview, 7,8,9 Precious few pundits are willing to speak out against NATO. Here are capsule sketches of notable allies—comrades if you will—devils advocating their asses off.

    What’s going on here is that the West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path, and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked.

    ~ John Mearsheimer, 2015

    John Mearsheimer graduated from West Point, got his PhD at Cornell, and is on the faculty at the University of Chicago. He has been the most outspoken detractor of NATO for over a decade, asserting its policies are driving us toward World War III. 10,11,12,13,14,15,16 He passed along this Munk Debate to me in which he and Steve Walt (Harvard Kennedy School) took on Michael McFaul (former Ambassador to Russia) and Radosław Sikorski (member of the European Parliament and former Polish Minister of Defense) along with some choice private opinions of his opponents’ tactics and attitudes. 17 I will kiss-and-tell one line from that email: “It is impossible to slow this train down save for nuclear use.” Mearsheimer laments that democracies waging distant wars are consistently the biggest liars. “That, in a nutshell, is the United States.” Meanwhile, the media no longer searches for truth, having become an administrative state—a pawn of the Deep State.

    Jeff Sachs at the Athens Democracy Forum: The most violent country in the world since 1950 has been the United States.

    Moderator interrupting: Jeffrey…Let’s…Jeffrey: Stop now. Let’s…Let’s…Jeffrey: I’m…I’m…I’m your moderator, and it’s enough

    Jeffrey: OK. I’m done. [to applause and laughter]. 18,19

    Jeffrey Sachs is an elite economist from Columbia University who was an advisor to many of the Warsaw Pact nations in the post-Soviet Union world. 20,21,22,23,24,25 Jeff may not always be right, but he calls balls and strikes and says he cannot even get op-eds published now.

    This war and suffering could have easily been avoided if Biden Admin/NATO had simply acknowledged Russia’s legitimate security concerns regarding Ukraine’s becoming a member of NATO, which would mean U.S./NATO forces right on Russia’s border.

    ~ Tulsi Gabbard

    Tulsi Gabbard, former Democratic Congresswoman from Hawaii recently estranged from the DNC, has a military background and has consistently taken an anti-war stance. She argues firm to the notion that NATO was the proximate trigger and could have prevented the war. 26,27 (Coda: I suspect her estrangement from the DNC might have been purchased with a promise to be a VP running mate in 2024. We shall see. I have also called out Svante Myrick as a DNC-derived presidential candidate several decades from now. We shall see about that, too.)

    One of the first lessons of objectivity is to slow things down to make sure that fact is not obscured by emotion.

    ~ Scott Ritter

    Scott Ritter is a former marine corps intelligence officer who provides technical analysis of the war that conflicts with CNN’s. 28,29,30,31,32,33 He first came under the spotlight testifying in front of an irate Joe Biden who spurned Scott’s intel indicating there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. 34 Mearsheimer referred to Scott’s Gulf War analyses as “so knowledgeable.” 35 Although Ritter’s resume has some scuff marks related to inappropriate sexual conduct, 36 his sparring with the Deep State renders such blemishes highly suspect and irrelevant anyway. Ritter has proven himself particularly prescient by predicting Russia’s military strategy in Ukraine, events that were later interpreted differently in the mainstream media when they played out as described.

    NATO had ample opportunity for peace but deliberately chose war. The U.S. realized that, with Russia’s back to the wall, it would have no choice but to attack.

    ~ Richard Black

    Colonel Richard Black served 31 years in the U.S. Marine Corps and later served in the Virginia State Senate. He does not get smeared on Wikipedia. 37 He views the Ukraine war as a resource grab of Ukraine and Russia by the U.S. under the cover of NATO. In 2022, Black wrote an open letter to Congress warning of the mounting risks of military conflict that began in 2014. 38,39,40 He decried the lure of “war profits even if it means gambling the lives of hundreds of millions of people across the globe.”

    There’s this attempt to destroy Russia. We’ve decided to make it this blood-enemy that has to be eliminated because it refuses to march down the path that Europe has.

    ~ Colonel Douglas MacGregor

    Colonel Douglas MacGregor is a highly decorated Gulf War veteran. He is known as innovative with unconventional thinking. 41 His views on the US role in the Middle East are hawkish. In brutally direct language, MacGregor supports Russia’s claims about the Donbas region going back to 2014. 42,43,44,45 The Senate blocked his nomination as ambassador to Germany, and he narrowly missed an appointment as the National Security Advisor.

    War propaganda stimulates the most powerful aspects of our psyche, our subconscious, our instinctive drives…The more unity that emerges in support of an overarching moral narrative, the more difficult it becomes for anyone to critically evaluate it…When critical faculties are deliberately turned off based on a belief that absolute moral certainty has been attained, the parts of our brain armed with the capacity of reason are disabled. 46

    ~ Glenn Greenwald, Substack and most famous for his Snowden Tapes

    Other voices dissenting against the prevailing narrative include off-broadway journalists such as Scott Horton, 47 Ron Paul, 48 Max Blumenthal, 49 Aaron Mate, 50,51,52.53 Glenn Greenwald, 54,55 Nigel Farage, 56 Pope Francis, 57,58 the Swiss Policy Research, 59 Chris Hedges, 60 European Union MEP Clare Daly, 61,62 Tucker Carlson, 63,64 former CIA analyst Ray McGovern, 65 former CIA analyst Jacques Baud, 66,67,68 journalist John Pilger, 69 Oliver Stone, 70 The Last American Vagabond, 71,72 Gonzalo Lira on the ground in Ukraine, 73,74 Whitney Webb, 75 Tom Luongo, 76 Matt Taibbi,77 pro-Soviet journalist Vladimir Pozner, 78 substack bloggers Kanekoa, 79 blogger Will Schryver (@imetatronink), 80 and even Jordan Peterson. 81

    The Players

    Four players are central to my version of this drama: Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the Azov Battalion.

    Before plowing into the swamp, I’ve got to confess that for a number of years now I have found myself sympathetic to Putin. He’s no snowflake, but his moves on the global chessboard and role in Russian affairs seem decidedly logical relative to ours; he is tactically maxed out.

    ~ Me, 2017 Year in Review

    Vladimir Putin is an enigmatic figure who I mentioned in 2014 after the Ukrainian coup and highlighting Mearsheimer’s warnings, 1 in 2015 in light of Syria and a brief shutdown of Russian natural gas, 2 in 2016 about the Drums of War becoming audible, 3 in 2017 trying to unscramble the Steele dossier and Russian collusion farce, 4 and in 2018 while analyzing the farcical stories about the Skripal poisoning and my efforts to cause an international incident by calling the Brits liars on Russia Today. 5 I have the disadvantage of knowing nothing about Russia, especially compared to those who have spent time in the region. Maybe that’s an advantage—a friend of mine with Ukrainian ties loses his shit talking about the subject—but it is a marginal advantage. I find the West’s tendency to blame Putin for everything imaginable, including an increasing number of clearly self-inflicted wounds, to be deeply troubling and dangerous. Trump’s strongest campaign plank in 2016 was, for me, his desire to “get along with the Russians”. Of course, the Deep State put a lid on that with fake Russian collusion stories.

    Putin is as inscrutable as you would expect for an ex-KGB agent and current leader of Russia. My opinion of the man is largely aligned with that of Oliver Stone’s in the Stone-Fridman interview. 6 Here are some opinions of Putin masquerading as declarative statements:

    • Putin is probably scarred by his tough Russian upbringing, leaving him with inadequate compassion. By Western standards , he would be a sociopath. 7 Although often called a narcissist, that seems too simple. I have no doubt that more than a few who crossed him regretted it, but I am also doubtless that western media distortions are profound.

    • He is a Russian nationalist. While his geopolitical tactics are not soft-touch, I find claims that he is attempting to reassemble the Soviet Union are far-fetched propaganda. His famous lamenting of the collapse of the Soviet Union is usually taken out of context. He was troubled by the post-collapse chaos that could have been avoided. I see a loose analogy with the period in Britannia following the Roman withdrawal.

    • To Putin, loyalty is everything. It undoubtedly shuts down what westerners might consider constructive open debate. The part missed by many is that in his younger years as a subordinate he offered the same fealty that he expects today. It was central to his rise to power.

    • Putin’s unflinching directness is brutally refreshing in a world with more waffles than an IHOP. In his interviews, he shows little or no evasiveness.

    • His gravitas dwarfs that of western leaders, which include Biden, Trudeau, Macron, and Johnson. (I’m withholding judgment on Italy’s decidedly spunky Meloni.) It is a low bar to hurdle, but gravitas is a minimum requirement to rise in Russia. The pundits confounded by his popularity in Russia should look inward and ask why his image in the West is not so shabby either despite their best efforts:

    • He is not a madman, although rumors of recent mental demise lately lack hard data to support or refute that claim. Contemporary analyses of Putin’s physical and mental health are likely to be so tainted by the intelligence agencies as to be worthless. Judge him by his interviews.

    • Some analyses paint Vlad as a strict rule follower. 8 By example, a major delay in a particular decision during the war derided by the West was attributed to completing the plans “by the book.” He had the firepower to run for a third consecutive term as president by changing the rules and did not 9 (although he certainly maintained control.)

    • Here is a contentious assertion: in his early days as a bureaucrat it was said that he “cannot be bribed.” 10 Now he is portrayed as fabulously wealthy, but I have been unable to confirm what seems to be innuendo. Those around him, however, have benefitted enormously from their proximity to power. His top-down control of industry benefitted many close to him, but that could be a consequence of his centralized control of the economy. One can only infer that he is profiting.

    • His actions Ukraine could be construed as either an energy grab or defensive tactics to prevent an energy grab. 11 Regardless, the politics are very thick.

    • His battles against the oligarchs draw negative press. When asked about it, he simply noted, “They robbed Russia blind.” That turns out to be true: none of the oligarchs made their billions fair and square. 12 Although Kordokovsky spent a decade in Siberia, where his confiscated assets reside remains unclear to me.

    I may be forced to back away from some of these points. I blame the utterly worthless western press for setting me adrift rudderless on the internet in my quest for wisdom. Here are thoughts about the War and NATO from Putin or through his spokesmen in their own words (which, admittedly, are Putin’s too). They are revealing:

    Your people do not yet feel an impending sense of danger. That worries me. Can’t you see the world is being pulled in an irreversible direction? Meanwhile, people pretend that nothing is going on. I don’t know how to get through to you anymore. 13

    ~ Vladimir Putin

    Imposing sanctions is the logical continuation and the distillation of the irresponsible and short-sighted policy of the U.S. and EU countries’ governments and central banks…The global economy and global trade as a whole have suffered a major blow, as did trust in the U.S. dollar as the main reserve currency. The illegitimate freezing of some of the currency reserves of the Bank of Russia marks the end of the reliability of so-called first-class assets…Now everybody knows that financial reserves can simply be stolen. 14

    ~ Vladimir Putin

    When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we, of course, will use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff. And those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the weathervane can turn and point towards them. 15

    ~ Vladimir Putin

    It is extremely alarming that elements of the U.S. global defense system are being deployed near Russia. The Mk 41 launchers, which are located in Romania and are to be deployed in Poland, are adapted for launching the Tomahawk strike missiles. If this infrastructure continues to move forward, and if U.S. and NATO missile systems are deployed in Ukraine, their flight time to Moscow will be only 7–10 minutes, or even five minutes for hypersonic systems. This is a huge challenge for us, for our security. 16

    ~ Vladimir Putin, December 21, 2021

    The Russian President made clear that President Biden’s proposals did not really address the central, key elements of Russia’s initiatives either with regards to non-expansion of NATO, or non-deployment of strike weapons systems on Ukrainian territory…To these items, we have received no meaningful response. 17

    ~ Yuri Ushakov, a top foreign policy adviser to Putin February 12, 2022

    The dollar enjoyed great trust around the world. But for some reason it is being used as a political weapon, imposing restrictions…the U.S. Dollar will collapse soon.

    ~ Vladimir Putin, 2021

    We are not threatening anyone…We have made it clear that any further NATO movement to the east is unacceptable. There’s nothing unclear about this. We aren’t deploying our missiles to the border of the United States, but the United States is deploying their missiles to the porch of our house. Are we asking too much? We’re just asking that they not deploy their attack-systems to our home…What is so hard to understand about that? 18

    ~ Vladimir Putin

    Our mistake was we trusted you too much, and your mistake was you took advantage of that. 19

    ~ Vladimir Putin to the U.S. on NATO incursion, 2017

    No matter how much Western and so-called supranational elites strive to preserve the existing order of things, a new era is coming, a new stage in world history. And only truly sovereign states can ensure high dynamics for growth and become an example for others. 20

    ~ Vladimir Putin

    We do not care about the eyes of the West. I don’t think there’s even room for maneuver left anymore. Because both [Prime Minister Boris] Johnson and [Foreign Secretary Liz] Truss say publicly: ’We must defeat Russia, we must bring Russia to its knees.’ Go on, then, do it. 21

    ~ Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia

    Do you know that 450 individuals were arrested after entering the Congress? They came there with political demands.

    ~ Vladimir Putin, 2021

    You can’t feed anyone with paper—you need food; and you can’t heat anyone’s home with these inflated capitalizations—you need energy. The United States is practically pushing Europe toward deindustrialization in a bid to get its hands on the entire European market. These European elites understand everything—they do, but they serve the interests of others. 22

    ~ Vladimir Putin

    We are actively engaged in reorienting our trade flows and foreign economic contacts towards reliable international partners, primarily the BRICS countries. 23

    ~ Vladimir Putin

    If the West continues to pump Ukraine full of weaponry out of impotent rage or a desire to exacerbate the situation…then that means our geographical tasks will move even further from the current line. 24

    ~ Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia

    The game of nominal value of money is over, as this system does not allow us to control the supply of resources…Our product, our rules. We don’t play by the rules we didn’t create. 25

    ~ Alexei Miller, CEO of Gazprom

    Any fourth-grade history student knows socialism has failed in every country, at every time in history.

    ~Vladimir Putin, 2014 (disputed)

    During the time of the Soviet Union the role of the state in the economy was made absolute, which eventually led to the total noncompetitiveness of the economy…I am sure no one would want history to repeat itself.

    ~ Vladimir Putin, communist, 2012

    Does that sound like the rantings of an unstable personality? Putin’s comments also foreshadow what the brawl is about.

    War is not only a military opposition on Ukrainian land. It is also a fierce battle in the informational space.

    ~ Zelensky, fighting WWIII on Twitter

    Volodymyr Zelensky rose to become the elected leader of Ukraine in 2019. He is a colorful character married to a hot wife, consistent with his role as a trained media star with a law degree to boot. One is struck by similarities between Volo’s TV presence to the SNL “sprockets skit.”

    A highly successful 2019 presidential run rode the back of promises to clean up the corruption in Ukraine, a country said to be one of the most corrupt in the world. 26 Volo’s ties with the WEF and Klaus Schwab don’t instill confidence. 27 By Ukrainian standards, he is legitimately wealthy man, but the debate of his actual net worth is unclear. He has holdings in several companies with ties to the Ukrainian Nazis (see below), 28 real estate in several countries, 29,30 ties to the Russian oligarchs, 31,32 the backing of a sketchy Ukrainian billionaire, 33,34,35,36,37 and a series of off-shore accounts awkwardly outed by the Pandora papers. 38,39

    Given the levels of corruption in Ukraine, none of this is that surprising. Rumors of him being a billionaire oligarch have been actively fact-checked, 40 but his oligarchical status seems sound. I have no trouble imagining that Volo was not a billionaire in 2021 but became one in 2022 given the massive and untraced dollar flows into Ukraine. Every time Vlad and Volo seemed to be getting along, more NATO money showed up.

    Despite Jewish roots, Zelensky is affiliated with the ruthless and decidedly antisemitic Azov Battalion. My mental construct is that the Azov Battalion is akin to the Mexican drug cartels—what they lack in numbers they make up with ruthlessness. His gazillionaire patron is said to be funding the Azov boys 41 but with the big money coming in from NATO/CIA sources. 42,43 Ritter posited that the Azovs promised Volo he would die a horrible death if he didn’t cooperate.44,45 Ritter also suggested that early in the conflict the Rooskies felt they could work with Volo and positioned an extraction team nearby in case he needed help. Strange world.

    We’re supposed to just veer away from the narrative that was being pushed just a couple of years ago. What the f*ck is that? What is that? 46

    ~ Joe Rogan, about pre-war Zelensky the Nazi

    Volo was absolutely the perfect guy to win the hearts, minds, and wallets of the world, tapping into a combination of charm, fluent English, and theatrical skills. Did I already mention the hot wife? It was a brilliant campaign aided by the US tech giants and their propaganda machines, 47 the Hollywood stars, and global elite, 48,49,50 all visiting Kyiv with remarkable ease given it’s a putative war zone. Volo was even hitting up Xi Jinping to help rebuild Ukraine 51 despite China’s and Russia’s perceived relationship. I’m surprised he didn’t start a SPAC and sell NFTs. Time magazine had Zelensky as a frontrunner on its list of “favorites to win the Nobel Peace Prize,” which is funny when juxtaposed against Volo’s contemporaneous call for a full-blown war to be initiated by a 30-country alliance against a nuclear superpower:52,53

    We therefore humbly call upon you, the Committee, to consider: Extending and thereby re-opening the nomination procedure for the Nobel Peace Prize until March 31, 2022 to allow for a Nobel Peace Prize nomination for President Zelensky and the people of Ukraine. 54

    ~ letter from 36 current and former European politicians

    I once again appeal to the international community, as it was before February 24: preemptive strikes so that they [Russia] know what will happen to them if they use it, and not the other way around.

    ~ Zelensky, on eve of being shortlisted for the Nobel Prize

    He got Time’s participation trophy:

    The Ukrainians are complaining all the time that they don’t see much of the money…it’s an enormous scam.

    ~ Colonel Douglas Macgregor

    The U.S. has been pouring money and weapons into Ukraine throughout the war that I spitball at $100 billion. 55,56 The Ukrainian lobby in Canada with backing by Chrystia Freeland dropped a billion dollars under Operation UNIFIER 57 to train Ukrainian neo-Nazis. In their denial, Canadian authorities admitted the Azov guys were not good people. Irish taxpayers are giving money for “Ukraine’s current and future needs” even though they have no ties to NATO. 58 The UK committed to 6,000 missiles and to pay Ukrainian soldiers and pilots. 59

    Biden slipped up 60 and said we had boots on the ground contrary to his pledge. 61,62 Did anybody doubt this? Those sophisticated weapons aren’t gonna shoot inspect themselves. Recall we had advisors in Vietnam in 1962. How did that work out? Two “advisors” got grabbed by the Rooskies, their whereabouts are unknown to me. 63

    Although it’s not clear whether Volo simply overplayed his hand or something politically deeper occurred, but questions of waste and mismanagement of resources began surfacing. 64,65,66,67 While mooching billions, which showed up suspiciously before the bars opened every Friday night, he was threatening to default on Ukrainian debt. 68 The cash was said to “dissolve into a black hole of secrecy, corruption, deceit, and now, default.” 69 The weapons disappeared into the black market. 70 And then there is the FTX-DNC connection I described in Part 1. CBS News buried a documentary on graft associated with the military support for Ukraine because Volo’s supporters and the Military-Industrial Complex were not happy. 70,71 Protests around Europe suggested that Johannes Sixpack was growing weary of their sacrifice for a proxy war. 72

    Show a little more gratitude. 73

    ~ Joe Biden to Zelensky

    Volo showed his dark side in the pre-war era when his regime banned teaching kids in Russian in the ethnically Russian-rich eastern provinces. 74 A 2019 video shows him ranting about how his army is ready to go to war in the Donbas. 75 I have no idea if pre-war atrocities (below) committed by the Azov punks can be hung on the Zelensky regime, but the U.S. buck stops at the top.

    For the truth about the Zelensky regime, Google these names: Voldymyr Struk Denis Kireev Mikhail & Aleksander Kononovich Nestor Shufrych Yan Taksyur Dmitri Djangirov Elena Berezhnaya Once again: If you haven’t heard from me in 12 hours or more, put my name on this list.

    ~ Gonzalo Lira, journalist of unknown credibility

    While Volo was charming the world out of tens of billions of dollars, he was also doing things that you might expect from the president of a profoundly corrupt and authoritarian state:

    • Volo unplugged three television networks that included the voices of his political opponents even though they had showed no support for Russia. 76

    • He banned and seized the assets of OPPL—the second largest political party in the country and his direct opposition; they were prohibited from “all activity within Ukraine.” 77 He also included ten smaller parties in the purge. 78

    • Volo imprisoned local political opponents 79 and tried to extradite and imprison those abroad despite no evidence they were supporting Russia.

    • The dismissal of senior officials raised more than a few bushy eyebrows. 80,81

    • Volo banned Christianity—the Ukrainian Orthodox Church—as of December, 2022 and seized its property. 82

    • Ukrainian authorities threatened all-expense-paid stays in the gulags for 18–60-year-olds who used to stay and fight for the homeland. 83 Some are being shot, although this may be unofficial actions of the Azov Boys. 84

    Tucker Carlson took the homogenous western narrative to task for claiming that Ukraine is a democracy 85 and took all Bible-thumping politicians on the right and sanctimonious politicians on the left for their silence. I know why many hate Tucker Carlson—I did too—but he is one of the few conservative talking heads who crosses the center line and touches third rails. He is the mirror image of Bill Maher.

    The U.S. is the most warlike country on earth.

    ~ Jimmy Carter

    One of Volo’s most inexplicable moves was to put out a hitlist—metaphorical or real is unknowable—of Westerners seemingly not buying his story. 86,87,88,89 The list includes such luminaries as Marine Le Pen, Tulsi Gabbard, Glenn Greenwald, Jeff Sachs, Scott Ritter, and Rand Paul. 90 Seems like he overplayed that hand. He also called for the prosecution of the U.S. and European megabank CEOs for “committing war crimes” because of their Russian ties 91 after reaching out directly to their CEOs to no avail. Dude: you cannot manhandle bankers like Canadian truckers.

    After the fall of the Soviet Union, there was a near universal understanding among political leaders that NATO expansion would be a foolish provocation against Russia. How naive we were to think the military-industrial complex would allow such sanity to prevail.

    ~ Chris Hedges, very left-wing independent journalist

    NATO (The North Atlantic Treaty Organization) was formed in 1949 as a post-WWII association of nations whose primary purpose was to oppose the rising power of the Soviet Union. It, by design, explicitly posed an existential risk to the Soviets, but that is not to say that NATO always behaved aggressively. After a lifetime of immersion in the Cold War, I had two thoughts when the Soviet Union collapsed: (a) “Holy shit!,” and (b) few years later, “who is going to oppose us?” Pulling away one of two equal and opposite forces produces a huge power shift. I remember reading of Jeff Sachs’s assurances to the former Soviets that there would be a Marshall Plan-like response from the West. It never materialized because, without the Soviet threat, who needs a Marshall Plan?

    Explicitly calling Putin a war criminal and for his removal from power meaningfully increases the risk of either chemical or nuclear weapons being used in Ukraine. 92

    ~ Niall Ferguson, Harvard University and the Hoover Institute

    Amidst the uncertainty of the Soviet Union splintering into a collection of directionless Warsaw Pact nations and the nervousness of a reuniting Germany, NATO promised Russia that if they didn’t push to reassemble the Warsaw Pact nations, NATO would not push eastward to absorb them. Declassified documents from US and Russian archives 93,94 revealed that Yeltsin was assured the “Partnership for Peace” was not a NATO expansion and Russia would be included.

    Well, as the agreement with Yeltsin was being worked out NATO’s expansion was already secretly underway. Secretary of State Warren Christopher later said that the drunken Yeltsin had Vodka goggles on and didn’t realize that the West planned to “lead to gradual expansion of NATO.” 95 The written record backs Yeltsin. Bill Clinton started the move in 1997. 96 One of the legends of the cold war, George Kennan, called the expansion “the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era.” 97 The late Russian expert Stephen Cohen was hypercritical of the demonization of Russia (Russophobia). 98 Here is a young Joe Biden admitting that bringing Baltic states into NATO would be a mistake. 99 As the tweeter disrespectfully noted, “Even shit-for-brains knew.” Here’s Vice President Shit-for-Brains sometime later cat-calling Russia for their concerns over NATO’s expansion. 101

    The decision for the U.S. and its allies to expand NATO into the east was decisively made in 1993. I called this a big mistake from the very beginning. It was definitely a violation of the spirit of the statements and assurances made to us in 1990. 100

    ~ Mikhail Gorbachev, former leader of the Soviet Union

    Ukraine is strategically critical for Russia, but I cannot find evidence that Russia wants possession of Ukraine. There is, however, copious evidence that Russia perceives NATO’s control over Ukraine a profound threat. NATO’s relentless sanctions and threats against Russia over decades leaves little doubt that the Russian view is sound. 102 The U.S. could and would sever Russia’s ties to Ukraine in a heartbeat. Within the halls of power, the cold war never ended.

    The bottom line is that the strategic interests of the United States are to prevent Russia from becoming a hegemon. And the strategic interests of Russia are not to allow the U.S. close to its borders. 103

    ~ George Friedman, Founder of Stratfor, 2014

    NATO and the CIA have been dumping money and weapons into Ukraine for years, 104,105 and CIA operatives have been crawling all over Ukraine, arming and training troops for a potential conflict with Russia. This is provocative, but those actions are neither legally nor tactically the same as Ukraine being in NATO. The CIA- and Ukrainian-oligarch-sponsored Maiden Coup in Ukraine in 2014 106,107 brought U.S. puppet Yatsensuk and his Nazi loyalists to power. 108,109 (Funny trivia point: The oligarch, Ihor Kolomoysky, who funded the coup owns Burisma Holdings.) George Friedman, the head of the private intelligence firm Stratfor, called it “the most blatant coup in history.” 110 That’s a high bar. It also led to some hilarity as super-neocon and Dick Cheney protegé, Victoria Nuland, 111,112 was recorded planning the swap and saying, “Fuck the EU.” She now works for Biden…or vice versa.

    The extent of the Obama administration’s meddling in Ukraine’s politics was breathtaking…One can legitimately condemn some aspects of Moscow’s behavior, but the force of America’s moral outrage is vitiated by the stench of U.S. hypocrisy. 113

    Ted Galen Carpenter in Foreign Affairs, 2017

    The year 2014 represented a phase change. Mearsheimer says that year NATO began training thousands of Ukrainian troops per year and providing more money and weapons, eventually with the help of Erik Prince of Blackwater fame. 114 Joint military exercises were designed to facilitate “interoperability” so that they could work with NATO forces. Here are Senators Graham, McCain, and Klobuchar rallying the Ukrainian troops in 2016. 115 “Klobuchar” is Ukrainian and loosely translates as “insufferable, self-serving neocon.”

    By 2021, NATO-trained troops were holding war exercises on Russia’s borders. 116 Meanwhile, between 2014 and 2022 the civil war in the Donbas killed an estimated 14,000 people as Ukrainian Nationalists put some whoop-asskyy on ethnic-Russian separatists. 117

    Azov Battalion has deep roots. For a crash course on its origins, the documentary Ukraine on Fire (2016) is probably a good start. 118 An off-off-Broadway analyst—The Last American Vagabond—does an interesting, well-documented, and extemporaneous analysis, pulling together connections of fascist groups around the globe under the umbrella called the Azov Movement, all using remarkably common logos and symbolism. 119,120 This Twitter thread gives some backdrop.121

    The Ukrainian Nazis—called “nationalists” by news sanitizers—trace back to at least WWII. Ukraine was split into two factions. Ukrainian “nationalists” led by Stepan Bandera in Western Ukraine worked with the Germans to battle the Soviets. They were brutal ethnic cleansers and antisemites. 122 To this day, the so-called Banderites celebrate Stepan Bandera’s birthday. 123 During the cold war the U.S. cozied up to Bandera delineated in a great book, The Devils Chessboard (see Books), 124 with the CIA providing cover for numerous atrocities. Bandera got whacked in 1959 by either the Soviets or the CIA.

    While the Nazi presence in Ukraine is thoroughly documented, what may surprise some is their postwar fascist influence throughout Europe. A documentary recounting the profound role closet fascists played in founding the EU is both convincing and disturbing. 125 Prior to 2022, the existence of a dangerous Nazi population in Western Ukraine was widely covered and uncontested. Since the onset of the War in Ukraine, the press has tried to erase that history. Recall Nina Jankowicz’s role (Part 1). 126 I suspect that earlier efforts to de-Nazify the public record would have been more aggressive if NATO analysts had believed that Putin would make his move.

    In the late 1980s, the Banderites rejuvenated a neo-Nazi movement and, with NATO assistance, incited civil unrest leading up to the U.S.-led 2014 coup. 127 The Banderites were also in cahoots with the cops during brutal and well-funded “Maydan” protests. Victoria Nuland et al. realized the Nazis were their best shot at giving Russia guff. 128 There are also the usual stories of George Soros being involved. Contacts with McCain, Graham, and Biden attest to the level of U.S. involvement. The CIA-led coup eventually ousted highly flawed Putin puppet Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and replaced him with highly flawed US puppet Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

    It was one of the most provoked invasions of our lifetimes because of the West dumping its arms in Ukraine.

    ~ Max Blumenthal, independent journalist

    Following Ukraine’s 2014 coup, the Banderites consolidated the Azov Battalion while embarking on a campaign of terror against ethnic Russians in the Donbas, all coordinated by CIA director John Brennan. 129 Videos show them burning the trade union headquarters killing 41 people trapped inside, 130 while the police stood by. Obama praised these freedom fighters for showing “remarkable restraint.” 131 The Azovs set up headquarters in Mariupol, which, not coincidentally, was a primary Russian military target during the war. If you want a real crash course on these guys, search “Azov Battalion” on Google or Twitter setting a custom date range to pre-January 2022. 132,133 Older BBC and Time documentaries show Nazis behaving badly. 134,135 The evidence of the Azov brutality is unassailable. 136,137 Getting a reliable head count on the Azovs, however, is like counting soldiers in a drug cartel (not easy).

    I will not call people in Donbas Ukrainians; we don’t need them. When Ukrainian tanks enter Donetsk, they (local residents) will be destroyed. 138

    ~ Ukrainian soldier who identifies as a Nazi

    Attempts to rehabilitate the Banderite and Azov image include renaming streets across Ukraine after Banderite heroes. 139 The Times of Israel was not happy. The CIA’s interest in exploiting the Banderites and Azov Battalion and the lack of image rehabilitation until the War in Ukraine began may attest to the CIA miscalculating Putin’s willingness to fight. Given recent efforts to root Nazis and white supremacists out of the U.S. military—no doubt a propaganda lie for some other purpose—it’s ironic that the U.S. and Ukraine were the only votes against a UN resolution condemning the Ukrainian neo-Nazis. 140

    Zelensky was also having trouble hiding the rough-edged Azov shenanigans. Western journalists from the AP accompanied Zelensky’s troops as they kidnap Ukrainians who question the regime. 141 This was for show, but some wondered what happens when the cameras are off. 142 Videos of the Azov thugs beating on civilians and torturing Russian captives are legion, 143,144,145,146 getting removed quickly but propagating like Tribbles. 147 One shows a Ukrainian field doctor saying that they are treating Russian captives who have been castrated. Another shows the Azov’s doing the nasty.148,149 In short, it is very difficult to find redeeming traits in the Azov Battalion.

    Ukraine violated the Minsk deal, Zelenskiy tripled attacks on Donbas and pushed Putin to a special operation that was supposed to last a week but escalated after the West sent money and weapons to Kyiv. 150

    ~ Claudio Berlusconi, former Prime Minister of Italy

    What prompted the invasion?

    A Rand Corporation white paper described how we would get to war with Russia. 1,2 Think tanks aren’t paid by the Pentagon to study issues but rather to propagandize them. 3 Rand summarized ways to trigger incidents between Russia and NATO:

    From the Russian leadership’s perspective, the theater itself could not be of greater significance; Ukraine has long been seen as a core national security concern…This Perspective summarizes the most-plausible pathways that could lead to a Russian decision to target NATO member states during the current conflict, describes the conditions under which Moscow might undertake such actions, and lays out how U.S. and NATO actions — including ongoing military assistance to Ukraine — could affect each pathway’s likelihood.

    ~ Rand Corporation, July 2022

    Cui bono? Well, for starters, the Military-Industrial Complex benefits from the billions. Lloyd Austin was on Raytheon’s board of directors before the revolving door led him to become Secretary of Defense. 4 Former CIA Director Gina Haspel went the other direction, joining the board of BAE Systems as BAE became the chief supplier of artillery to Ukraine. 5 It is nice to see Gina land on her feet. These guys are making a killing by killing. There will never be a promised “peace dividend.”

    Everything that’s being shipped into Ukraine today, of course, is coming out of stockpiles, either at DOD or from our NATO allies, and that’s all great news. Eventually, we’ll have to replenish it, and we will see a benefit to the business. 6

    ~ Greg Hayes, CEO of Raytheon

    The barking of NATO at the gates of Russia…weapons are being tested in that land… Wars are fought for this: to test the weapons we have produced…The arms trade is a scandal; few oppose it. 7

    ~ The Pope on what prompted Putin’s incursion

    One could ask why did Russia wait so long? If all hell was breaking out in Eastern Ukraine, why care now? The obvious answer is the seriousness of the move would give any leader pause, but there were events transpiring that prompted Russia to act.

    Jacques Baud says that the shelling of the Donbas on February 16th made it clear to Putin that a big move against the ethnic Russians had started. 8 Some suggest those same events alerted the Biden administration that shit was about to get real, although it is impossible to believe the U.S. didn’t instigate the escalation.

    Ukraine should renounce its NATO aspirations and declare neutrality as part of a wider European security deal between the West and Russia. 9

    ~ Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor in a memo to Zelensky on February 19th.

    Zelensky is said to have overtly sandbagged any negotiations. While most military powers negotiate first then go to war, the Russians fight and negotiate concurrently. Destroying Kyiv or Zelensky was not in their plans because it would leave no negotiators. Russia’s goal was to de-nazify and demilitarize Ukraine, not beat them nor destroy infrastructure that would need to be rebuilt. That is also why the fighting in Kharkiv and Mariupol—the home of the Azov Battalion—became particularly intense. 10

    The Biden administration is so intent on punishing Putin, it can hardly focus on the Ukrainians who are dying every day. 11

    ~ DIA officer

    In November 2021, Antony Blinken reaffirmed Ukraine’s right to join NATO and listed Russia’s indiscretions including “continuing malign behavior.” 12 In December the Russians warned us they were “about to lose their shit” and proposed a treaty 13 asking for NATO’s assurance they would not further weaponize Ukraine anymore, and we told them to “bite me.” 14 We did not just disagree; we blew them off. This is Mearsheimer’s key point: we are no longer credible negotiators.

    On February 21 and 24, Putin delivered speeches with their gripes and their need to “demilitarize” and “de-nazify” Ukraine. Steve Walt says Putin was a rational actor given that NATO’s next move was unclear. The Russians had no reason to take our stated intentions on good faith. The previous promises to exclude Ukraine from joining NATO were by handshake—that, according to Mearsheimer, is a common protocol in diplomatic circles—but Putin wanted it in writing this time (as Putin lamented in his interviews with Oliver Stone.) The written promise could be broken, but it would be harder.

    Putin tried desperately to get the British, the French, the Germans, and us to understand that his Russian citizens should be treated equally before the law just like Ukrainian citizens inside this large multi-ethnic state. (But) Zelensky and his friends said ‘No. Either you become what we are or you get out.’ 15

    ~ Colonel Douglas MacGregor

    Some think the war was triggered not by the threat of a NATO incursion per se but when Ukrainian troops started markedly ramping up shelling of ethnic Russian Ukrainians in the Donbas; 16 nine days later Putin made the move with a “special military operation.” Some analysts with nuanced views believed NATO could have stopped the war in those last few days, but NATO had no intention of diffusing the conflict. 17 It appears that Putin accelerated the attack by several days owing to intelligence suggesting imminent mass atrocities in Eastern Ukraine. 18

    Use up the Irish. Their dead cost nothing.

    ~ King Longshanks, Braveheart

    Jumping ahead a little, during the war NATO fanned the flames by calling for the accelerated inclusion of Finland and Sweden. 19 A neocon was ranting that the Kremlin didn’t give a shit, arguing that Russia’s obsession over Ukraine was hypocrisy. What this NATO pimp failed to grasp was that he was making the case for Ukraine being a special issue to Russia. Also, the Kremlin did object strenuously to NATO’s overtures to Finland and Sweden and had previously expressed grave concerns if Sweden and Finland started getting weaponized. 20 Some suggest that the move toward Sweden and Finland is evidence that Ukraine is soon to be under Russian control and that NATO is repositioning for the next brawl. 21 Whatever.

    The Drums of War

    The war started out paradoxically. In breathless press conferences, Jake Sullivan claimed the attack was coming, and the reporters simply did not believe him given the total lack of evidence provided. British defense secretary Ben Wallace said it is “highly likely” that Russia will attack Ukraine. 1,2 By contrast, the Chinese Foreign Ministry claimed “the U.S. has been fanning the threat of war, artificially creating a tense atmosphere, which has dealt a serious blow to the economy, social stability and living conditions of the people of Ukraine.” 3 The Chinese, of course, would never lie. However, even the Ukraine Defense Chief noted, “Our intelligence sees every move that could pose a potential threat to Ukraine. We estimate the probability of a large-scale escalation as low.” 4,5 David Arakhamia of Kyiv’s parliament said he was now “99.9% confident that nothing will happen.” 6,7 Zelensky claimed that the U.S. was “provoking panic” and demanded to see firm proof. 8,9 A Russian spokesperson requested facetiously, “I’d like to request US and British disinformation—Bloomberg, The New York Times and The Sun media outlets —to publish the schedule for our upcoming invasions for the year.” 10 Zelensky then suggested the war would start February 15th, but that was later claimed to be sarcasm emerging from his comedic roots. 11 He’s a hoot.

    This veneer of chaos and confusion, however, is consistent with the general idea that the US—Oops. I meant NATO—was itching to spark a proxy war that nobody else was thrilled about. A German accused the U.S. of wreaking havoc deliberately to disrupt Russian attack plans. 12 My spidey sense was piqued by two independent emails sent to me from unrecognized sources noting that (a) there was already shelling in the Donbas region of Ukraine by Ukrainians, and (b) large Ukrainian forces had been amassing for months. This was common knowledge, but I knew nothing about the ongoing civil war at that moment in my journey.

    Putin is not intentionally attacking civilians…he is mindful that he needs to limit damage in order to leave an out for negotiations. 13

    ~ William M. Arkin, March 22 Newsweek

    The Russian state department eventually sent a flight to D.C. to pick up their “Russian intelligence agents” from the embassy, 14 and the war started, but at a crawl. If you wanna see serious war footage check out Baghdad on Day One 15 of the Iraq War or even watch Saving Private Ryan for the ninth time. I drove my wife nuts every night declaring, “This doesn’t look like a war to me.” The media covered human interest stories about how awful it was, showed photos of burned-out cars and the occasional explosion in the middle of some street or vacant lot that looked like a stick of dynamite (or M-80) was detonated rather safely. 16 The larger explosions seemed to miss their targets, 17 and huge explosions were so far away that there was no evidence of what blew up.

    I know it’s hard … to swallow that the carnage and destruction could be much worse than it is, but that’s what the facts show. 18

    ~ DIA analyst

    It’s odd that the windows survived a car-flipping blast (top), while it appears that a MOAB turned a goat grazing in a vacant field into pink mist. Early footage from Mariupol looked more like grinding poverty from decades-long destruction and decay than a fresh war zone. 19,20 Nightly news footage was highly repetitive showing the same buildings from different angles: is that all the media could find? On-the-ground interviews were either content-free stories or featured people who seemed unaware of what was happening while expressing mixed emotions about Putin versus Zelensky. 21 A British journalist went looking for the war and found shelling of Ukrainians by Ukrainians. 22 Another found neither the war nor other journalists. 23

    I can hear you saying, “Well, what about these horrors you idiot?”

    Well, those are horrific scenes, but they are (a) Detroit; (b) Ukraine, 2022; (c) Baltimore; (d) Donbas, 2014; (e) the South Bronx; (f) Mariupol, 2016; (g) Yemen; and (h) Minneapolis, 2020. See how easy it would be for the media to dupe you? I was not alone in my doubts. A powerful analysis by William Arkin of Newsweek makes a strong case that Putin was pulling his punches to avoid infrastructure destruction and civilian casualties. 24

    Heartbreaking images make it easy for the news to focus on the war’s damage to buildings and lives. But in proportion to the intensity of the fighting (or Russia’s capacity), things could indeed be much worse. 25

    ~ U.S. Air Force officer

    Scott Ritter, the U.S. marine who drew scorn from Joe Biden for saying Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction, 25 predicted Russia’s WWI-like invasion strategy. In particular, he said with Russia’s small invasion force they did not intend to occupy territory. Ritter also predicted that Putin would draw Ukrainian troops into the cities to defend them. Once accomplished, he would avoid urban warfare circling the cities. You may recall the western press slobbering over Putin’s retreats as evidence Russia was getting toe tagged. MacGregor concurred with Ritter that calling Russian moves “retreats” is silly. 26 Both Colonel MacGregor and CIA analyst Jacques Baud noted that Ukraine was fighting for territory while Russia was fighting to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine with an interest only in tactically important territory. 27 Retired Colonel David Johnson of the Rand Corporation and the Modern War Institute at West Point insinuated that the western press is looking through beer goggles. 28 Battles in the Donbas were said by blogger Will Schryver to be akin to the Maginot Line in which the Rooskies dealt with long-prepared fixed fortifications so efficiently that the strategy “will be studied in war colleges” for years to come. 29

    Before moving on to specific events, here are some random observations from early in the conflict that caught my eye as odd or unexpected:

    • In May, a Russian soldier was convicted of a war crime for shooting a 62-year-old civilian. 30 This is an oddly small crime for war.

    • Despite headlines and breathless narratives, it proved exceedingly difficult to discern which battles were being won and by whom in the early days of the war. Videos showed blurred-out street signs. 31 Putative Russian tanks lacked the traditional markings. It was the fog of war.

    • A Reuters story describing how Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian incursion in the Sumy region showed a picture of guys with paintball guns. 32,33 Apparently, ”Big Paintball,” also known as the “Paintball-Industrial Complex,” is getting its cut. Recall that ABC showed a hellacious fight against Syrians…filmed at a military gun range in the Midwest. 34 Americans got duped by those images too.

    • The United Nations reported 596 deaths three weeks into the war, including 43 children. Biden’s Afghan drone strike in Afghanistan killed six kids in a microsecond. I suspect the Iraq War took out more than 596 people in the first 20 seconds.

    Long-range artillery is very, very important. But so is the hand-to-hand insurgency that we are hoping to see in eastern Ukraine, in the territory that’s already been occupied by the Russians. 35

    ~ Senator Richard Blumenthal, armchair quarterback, volunteering?

    • A pregnant woman in Ukraine scrambling from the horrors of war turned out to be a prominent Instagram model Wagging the Dog. 36

    • Two British mercenaries (MI6 maybe?) were arrested by the Rooskies and taken to court for trying to kill Rooskies.37,38 Seems like a logical charge to me. A couple of Americans got picked up too. 39

    • Ukrainians standing next to a long-defunct factory refused to evacuate because they were “waiting for the Russians to arrive and put the factory back into production.” 40 The plan is that “they will soon be repairing Russian tanks, and then they will have bread on the table again.” They also griped that only the wealthy and those ideologically supportive of the Kyiv regime could evacuate.

    • “Heroic Ukrainian freedom fighters” on Snake Island who flipped off the Russian navy and were said to be “martyred” by the Rooskies are doing fine after all. 41

    • A putative Russian attack on the holocaust museum did not hold up to scrutiny by the Israeli press. 42

    • Russian attacks on a nuclear plant made no sense given the Russians controlled it, and UN inspectors invited in by the Russians found no problems either. 43 Anyone can hit the “broadside of a cooling tower.”

    The media does not allow any word against Ukrainian actions. I’ve asked around to friends and they say, ‘Yeah Jeff. Of course, it is the Ukrainians shelling the plant. 44

    ~ Jeff Sachs

    • Claims of mass rape of Ukrainians by Russian soldiers played well on western news outlets 45 but did not age well when westerners checked the story, eventually leading to the firing of the Ukrainian official offering up these fibs.46 The propaganda defeat 47 was simply ignored by some human rights groups looking for clicks. 48

    • Putative mercenaries were occasionally identified but whether they were ex-military westerners with Ukrainian sympathies or State-sanctioned NATO troops is difficult to say. 49,50

    • The Biden administration’s accusations of genocide by Russian troops 51 were called bullshit by French President Macron and by our Pentagon and U.S. intelligence officials. 52

    • A German journalist is looking at a three-year prison sentence for writing about Ukraine with a Russian slant. 53 Remind me: which country is a totalitarian state?

    • Gold teeth attributed to a Roosky torture chamber were traced to a dentist who had collected them over his multi-decade career. 54 The photo also featured a dildo that was pulled from…never mind.

    • Ukraine’s Post Office issued a postage stamp commemorating the bombing of the Kerch Bridge connecting to Crimea the day the bridge was bombed. 55 That stamp may become a valuable collectible. It was also Putin’s 70th birthday. 56 Somebody has a sense of humor.

    • While Zelensky and NATO blamed mass graves on torture, reporters noted that the graves were orderly and looked like the victims died from artillery wounds. 57

    • Western reports that the Rooskies were going to use a dirty bomb—a normal bomb impregnated with radioactive debris—never materialized and never made sense because a dirty bomb would offer no tactical gain.

    • Images of dead Ukrainians strewn alongside a road in Bucha lit up the international presses. The problem is that the Ukrainians “liberated” Bucha on March 31 and had it “fully under control” according to the mayor. The bodies, however, did not materialize until three days later. OK. Shit happens, but the Ukrainian National Police are tight with the ruthless Azov boys known for killing Ukrainians. 58 A former French special ops guy says it was Ukrainians, not Russians, doing the killing. 59

    • Odesa is a port city on the Black Sea of critical economic and military importance to both the Ukrainians and the Russians. The day after the Russians signed a grain export deal with Turkey, the port suffered an attack. U.S. officials blamed Russia for destroying a shipping port of great importance to Russia. Zelensky agreed with NATO because he won’t bite the hand that feeds him money and weapons. 60 The Russians and Turks countered that it was completely nuts to accuse Russia of attacking port critical to their needs. 61 Russia eventually admitted to hitting a “military target…Harpoon missiles,” claimed “nobody died,” and assured the world the grain deal was still on.62,63,64

    Some events need more than a bullet. When a Russian missile landing in a train station killed over 50 Ukrainians, I was reminded that if you wish to learn, post a tweet with an error or omission in it, 65 and sit back and watch:

    Within minutes military guys quickly noted it is a two-stage unguided “Tochka” missile, and I was seeing only the jettisoned stage. I learned that the Tochka missiles had been decommissioned by the Rooskies more than five years ago and only the Ukies were using them now, 66 which has been contested. 67,68 Apparently, it is trivial to calculate the origin of the Tochka missiles by knowing where the two stages landed and extrapolating backward, which pinpointed this missile’s source to the heart of Ukrainian-occupied territory. 69 The Rooskies came to the same conclusion, but, of course, that has been blocked by Western censors because hearing the other side of any story is counterproductive. 70 The recurring theme is that Ukrainians kill Ukrainians, especially when billions in aid are at stake.

    The media told us a gripping story as Ukrainian troops from the Azov Battalion were under siege in the Azovstahl steel mill in Mariupol. The Russian siege eventually flushed them out. 71 Of course, Putin’s demilitarization and de-Nazification plan made this group and Mariupol primary targets. The civilians were offered a free pass out multiple times and, when they finally got out, were surprised to find the rest of the city going about its business. The civilians were referred to by amnesty international as “human shields,” which is said to be a common practice of the Ukrainian troops. 72,73There were rumors of Western military officers captured too. 74 I would not underwrite the health or life insurance policies of the Azov captives on that bus to Siberia.

    Russia is the most likely suspect. 75

    ~ John Brennan, former CIA Director and the model of honesty, on the pipeline

    Jeff Sachs: The destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline…I would bet was a U.S. action, perhaps U.S. and Poland. 76

    Tom Keene interrupting: Uh, Jeff, we’ve got to stop there.

    Pipelines, Bridges, and Other Infrastructure

    By now pretty much everybody knows that the Nord Stream II Pipeline providing natural gas to Europe, and the Kerch Bridge providing critical access to the Russian satellite Crimea, were blown up. I suspect that neither was as damaging as first thought. 1 The West’s immediate reaction was to blame Russia for blowing up its own infrastructure, which is absurd.2 Fact-checkers attacked “rumors circulating on online forums popular with American conservatives and followers of QAnon,” which is comically stupid. 3,4 Some say the Brits did it for us, but Navy activities in the area days before the explosion are suspicious. 5,6,7,8 The unfiltered Jeff Sachs noted, “We are seeing the behavior of a highly secretive part of our government. There is no doubt.” 9,10 Whether the strike was carried out by the US or one of our proxies—NATO bitches—is irrelevant. Joe Biden and neocon Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland made statements months earlier that were hard to walk back: 11

    If Russia invades…then there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it. 12

    ~ Joe Biden

    If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.

    ~ Victoria Nuland, neocon

    MacGregor, 13 after noting the sophistication and tonnage of explosives required to damage the pipeline, asks rhetorically, “Would the Russians destroy their own pipeline? 40 percent of Russian gross domestic product generates foreign currencies that come into the country to purchase natural gas, oil, and coal…The notion that they did I think is absurd.” Well, Poland’s former Minister of Defense Sikorski seemed sure who did it:

    The Kremlin and Russian state media are aggressively pushing a baseless conspiracy theory blaming the United States for damage to natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea in what analysts said Friday is another effort to split the U.S. and its European allies. 14

    ~ Associated Press, lying their asses off

    As to why we blew it up seems rather straightforward: “Berlin was drifting away from the alliance,” threatening to stop sending equipment to Ukraine, and preparing to cut a deal. 15 The Germans can now ponder their next move this winter while they shutter industries and freeze their asses off burning firewood 16 to heat their houses. Seems a shame they just shut down their nuke plants. I would be pissed off and self-loathing. The US should benefit from soaring natural gas prices while Germany complains about U.S. profiteering. 17 With three of the four pipelines delivering Russian natural gas to Europe out of commission, Hungary is now the only EU member state still receiving Russian gas. 18 By blowing up Nord Stream II, we have forced Germany to be a “vassal state” of the U.S.

    Over the long run you want to change the structure of your energy dependence. You want to depend more on the North American energy platform—the tremendous bounty of oil and gas that we are finding in North America. 19

    ~ Condoleezza Rice, 2014, to Germany

    The United States considers the most dangerous potential alliance to be between Russia and Germany.

    ~ George Friedman, founder of Stratfor, 2014

    Bioweapons Laboratories

    When the Soviet Union toppled, one of the nightmare scenarios was that their dilapidated bioweapons labs were in collapsing buildings, secured by rusty padlocks, and staffed by heroin addicts possibly looking to raise cash on the black market. This threat is nicely described in Richard Preston’s 2001 nail-biter, Demon in the Freezer. 1 Of course, the West had 30 years to decommission those labs in Ukraine, and you would not dawdle despite what CNN says. 2 Well, it appears that there are several dozen U.S.-sponsored bioweapons labs in Ukraine (and 336 worldwide). 3,4,5 Those who expressed concerns (like Tulsi Gabbard) got hammered for such hare-brained “Russian-backed conspiracy theories.” 6

    However, the Nunn-Lugar Agreement cleared these labs for use in 2005. 7 The Pentagon fessed up to there being 46 Ukrainian biolabs, 8,9 and the Rooskies have known about them for years. 10 We were scrambling to get the good stuff back to the U.S.—you know, the deadly shit like modified coronaviruses—before the war started. 11 Any thought that this is just wild-eyed conspiracy theory was snuffed when Victoria Nuland sheepishly and with cautious word choice admitted they exist: 12

    Uh, Ukraine has, uh, biological research facilities. We are now in fact quite concerned that Russian troops, Russian forces, may be seeking to, uh, gain control of [those labs], so we are working with the Ukrainians on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces should they approach.

    ~ Victoria “Oh Fuck!” Nuland, testifying to Congress

    Jeff Sachs, jumped into the fray again, this time asking the World Health Organization (WHO) to intervene. 13 Seems germane given that Sachs ran the commission that confirmed the Sars-Cov-2 virus came from such a lab and that the WHO was in full ass-covering mode. Both the Chinese 14 and the Russians 15 drew attention to U.S. bioweapons research leading to the covid pandemic including many of the authoritarian implications. 16 The BBC says that healthy newborns in Ukraine have been scooped up and become part of stem cell production facilities. I wonder who sponsored those? 17 All roads really do lead to Ukraine.

    We have approached a fateful moment in world history, not because of global warming, Covid, overpopulation, white racism, or any of the “crises” that an ignorant media hypes, but because we face nuclear war originating in the total stupidity of Western elites.

    ~ PC Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury

    The great powers have taken over and practically destroyed the UN order over the past several decades. I assume that we’re leaving the phase of the special military operation and approaching a major armed conflict, and now the question becomes where is the line, and whether after a certain time—maybe a month or two, even—we will enter a great world conflict not seen since the Second World War.

    ~ Aleksandar Vucic, President of Serbia

    Nuclear War?

    In the decades following the Cuban Missile Crisis, no sane person considered nuclear weapons to be tactically viable. All diplomatic channels were designed to avoid Armageddon. Apparently, there are now insane people in positions of power. It is crystal clear that Russian authorities, whether it be Putin, Lvarov, Medvedev, or the Minister of Whatever, are speaking with one voice that to a major degree is Putin’s:

    I’m Vladimir Putin, and I approve this message.

    NATO’s many disparate voices are problematic when it comes to delicate diplomacy. Let’s bullet a few (double entendre intended):

    • Polish officials claim that the Biden administration is open to letting Poland host U.S. nuclear weapons—”nuclear-sharing.” 1 Poland, as you might recall, is on Russia’s doorstep. 2,3 Poland’s European Parliament Deputy Radoslaw Sikorski emerged from his lair yet again, suggesting we give some nukes to Kyiv: “The West has the right to give Ukraine nuclear warheads so that it can protect its independence.” 4 My allergic reaction to Sikorski in the Munk debate against Mearsheimer just crystallized. The Russians noted that a nuclear conflict will destroy the European continent. 5

    • Republican Senator Roger Wicker said he wouldn’t even rule out a pre-emptive nuclear strike against Russia. 6 Who the fuck asked you?

    • Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s stated goal is to weaken Putin. 7

    I am here. Standing here. On the Northern flank. On the Eastern flank. Talking about what we have in terms of the eastern flank in our NATO allies and what is that state at this very moment. 8

    ~ Kamala Harris in Poland, preventing WWIII

    • In what may have been the scariest op-ed of the year, Uber-neocon John Bolton called for the assassination of Putin: “The whole regime must go.” 9

    • Biden said, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.” 10 The Washington Post called it “the most defiant and aggressive speech about Russia by an American president since Ronald Reagan.” Bullshit: Reagan never called for regime change. Also, that was a nice try equating those two polar opposites.

    Globalists are marching us relentlessly toward this nuclear Armageddon. 11

    ~ Richard Black in an open letter to Congress

    • Lindsay Graham called for Putin’s countrymen to “take him out.” 12

    • Ukraine’s top military chief suggested, “There is a direct threat of the use, under certain circumstances, of tactical nuclear weapons by the Russian armed forces. It is also impossible to completely rule out the possibility of the direct involvement of the world’s leading countries in a ‘limited’ nuclear conflict.” 13,14

    We United States aids Ukraine and her people so that we can fight Russia over there, and we don’t have to fight them over here. 15

    ~ Adam Schiff, 2020

    • New York City began playing duck-and-cover anti-nuke ads this year. 17 Those were insane 60 years ago.

    • The odd part is that the nuclear talks are largely stemming from NATO. Many have argued that Russia would not use nukes—they are not tactically sound—because they have better options. 18,19 Oddly, Mearsheimer is not in that camp. He thinks a nuke might be the proximate trigger that brings everybody to the negotiating table.

    The U.S. is hastening the Deployment of new nuclear weapons in Europe.

    ~ Politico Headline

    Hats off to French President Emmanual Macron for keeping his head while everybody else was losing theirs by refusing to call Russia’s actions genocide: “If Russia had that objective or was intentionally killing civilians, we’d see a lot more than less than 0.01 percent in places like Bucha.” U.S. intelligence concurred: “[Genocide] has so far not been corroborated by information collected by U.S. intelligence agencies.” 16

    Who is winning?

    Quite frankly, I have no idea who is winning this war. With the lack of critical analysis of Russian army movements, the confusion is profound. Undocumented NATO “advisors” doing “onsite weapons inspections” and possibly firing those weapons that are well beyond the skills of the Ukrainians” 1,2,3 appear to have caused serious damage. However, Ritter, MacGregor, 4 and ex-CIA analyst Ray McGovern 5 claim that the Russian losses, while more than they expected at the outset because of the flood of NATO weapons, are grotesquely overstated by Zelensky and the western press. MacGregor estimates the Russian-to-Ukrainian kill ratios of 5–6:1 (October) and that as of early December Ukraine had lost an estimated 100,000 troops. 6 Rumors of Russians running out of tanks went silent as swaths of new tanks appeared. 7 Putin was said to be in huge political trouble or as strong as ever in Russia, depending on who you asked. The claim is that the Rooskies aren’t mudders, but once the ground freezes they will play like the Packers on Lambeau Field. After the bridge and pipeline attacks, Putin ratcheted up the offensive, and the real war appears to have arrived. He appears to be surgically destroying their infrastructure sufficiently to make this winter very unpleasant.

    It is of course in the nature of things that, apart from the relative strength of the two armies, a smaller force will be exhausted sooner than a larger one; it cannot run so long a course, and therefore the radius of its theater of operations is bound to be restricted.

    ~ Carl von Clausewitz’s, 19th century, describing gambler’s ruin applied to war

    The insanity of the statements coming out of the many mouths of NATO leaves me breathless. Putin may have misjudged Ukraine and Washington’s resistance to negotiate. The bellicosity of the self-appointed voices of NATO blowing hot air on the flames means the end of this war is not yet in sight. If you want Putin to say, “Fuck it: let’s tear up the joint” in a green-goblin strategy that is how I would do it. Sherman took the war to the people by marching on Atlanta. Putin may be following that script now. With negotiation down the drain, the prospects for a peace have become grim and could get worse.

    Interviewer: What are the realistic options now available?

    John Mearsheimer: There are no options. We’re screwed.

    How does it end?

    I could imagine it ending in a whimper like every big news story that becomes inconvenient. I am sure Kanye, Prince Harry, or Will Smith will provide critical cover. Somebody will use the N-word. One of the profound problems, however, is that we do not seem to have concrete plans or motivation to end this war. NATO is comprised of multiple countries. Their human weaponry includes legions of loose cannons loaded with double-digit IQs, all trying to get their 10 minutes of fame by supporting no-fly zones, sending in U.S. troops, delivering nukes to Ukraine, pre-emptively striking Russia, and whacking Putin.

    Even assuming Russia ignores the high noise levels, NATO exists to oppose Russia. Serious spokespersons have openly stated that their goal is to weaken or destroy Putin and Russia. This is an existential risk for Putin and Russia by definition. Russia must win and will fight to the death.

    We urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire.

    ~ 30 Congressional Democrats in an open letter to Joe Biden

    Into this politically treacherous plot enters The Squad—the four newly minted Congressional nitwits—and 26 other DNC-spawned representatives with an open letter suggesting the most coherent idea to date: NATO and Russia should get to the negotiating table to end the war. 1 They got it dead right. Had something changed fundamentally? Nope. The letter was unvetted by the people that matter; within hours they were back peddling, 2 and within a day they withdrew the letter as some sort of clerical mistake. Apparently, House democrats and their friends in the Military-Industrial Complex were unready or unwilling to end this war. 3 It was a monumental fuckup both coming and going.

    The Congressional Progressive Caucus hereby withdraws its recent letter to the White House regarding Ukraine. The letter was drafted several months ago, but unfortunately was released by staff without vetting…As Chair of the Caucus, I accept responsibility for this. Because of the timing, our message is being conflated by some as being equivalent to the recent statement by Republican Leader McCarthy threatening an end to aid to Ukraine if Republicans take over.

    ~ Progressive Democrats’ Retraction

    They couldn’t even hold out for *24 hours*. What a complete humiliation. Joe Crowley must be sitting in his lobbyist office cackling each time this happens.

    ~ Glenn Greenwald on the Democrats retracting their call for peace negotiations

    The one person who seems to have a limited say is Zelensky. The chaos preceding the war when the Ukrainians seemed confused by U.S./NATO rhetoric presumably occurred during a period in which Zelensky and Putin were having discussions. It is said that Putin and Zelensky were working out a deal in April when Boris Johnson showed up to let Zelensky know that no such deal would be tolerated. 4 NATO wanted its war, and no NATO puppet was gonna muck that up.

    Ukraine and Russia have largely resolved their differences, but the Biden admin is in the way.

    – William Arkin, Newsweek, April 2022

    Russia is open to negotiations over Ukraine, but any agreement with Kyiv would have little credibility because it could be rescinded by the West. This means that any possible settlement should be primarily discussed with the U.S.

    ~ Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Sunday

    Zelensky’s claim that they would “fight to the last Ukrainian” was boilerplate rhetoric to generate Western support. However, Ukraine passed a referendum stating that they would not negotiate with Putin: “we [Ukraine] are ready for dialogue with Russia, but with another president of Russia.” 5 You never shut down communication channels. He was daring Vlad to kill every last Ukrainian. I’m not sure the Ukrainian soccer moms would sign off on that, but Vlad might.

    I would never want Ukraine to be a piece on the map, on the chessboard of big global players, so that someone could toss us around, use us as cover, as part of some bargain.

    Volodymyr Zelensky, too late

    The best thing we can do if we want the Russians to let us be Americans is to let the Russians be Russian.

    ~ George F. Kennan

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 22:00

  • Google Execs Declare "Code Red" Over Revolutionary New Chat Bot
    Google Execs Declare “Code Red” Over Revolutionary New Chat Bot

    Three weeks ago and experimental chat bot called ChatGPT was unleashed on the world. When asked questions, it gives relevant, specific, simple answers – rather than spitting back a list of internet links. It can also generate ideas on its own – including business plans, Christmas gift suggestions, vacation ideas, and advice on how to tune neural network models using python scripts.

    Some even think it may supplant Google’s search business, the NY Times reports.

    Although ChatGPT still has plenty of room for improvement, its release led Google’s management to declare a “code red.” For Google, this was akin to pulling the fire alarm. Some fear the company may be approaching a moment that the biggest Silicon Valley outfits dread — the arrival of an enormous technological change that could upend the business.

    For more than 20 years, the Google search engine has served as the world’s primary gateway to the internet. But with a new kind of chat bot technology poised to reinvent or even replace traditional search engines, Google could face the first serious threat to its main search business. One Google executive described the efforts as make or break for Google’s future. -NYT

    ChatGPT was produced by a research lab known as OpenAI – which employs technology and knowledge that Google and many other companies have helped cultivate. In fact, the core technology behind ChatGPT was developed by researchers at Google.

    Now, experts think Google might struggle to compete with these smaller companies offering machine learning chat bots, as they may prove damaging to its business model.

    Google has its own chat bot – LaMDA, or Language Model for Dialogue Applications, which gained attention over the summer when former Google engineer, Blake Lemione, suggested that it was sentient. That said, the Silicon Valley giant may be reluctant to deploy the new tech as a replacement for its search service, because a chat bot AI may not be able to deliver digital ads as effectively – something which accounted for 80% of Google’s revenue last year.

    “No company is invincible; all are vulnerable,” said University of Washington professor, Margaret O’Mara, who specializes in the history of Silicon Valley. “For companies that have become extraordinarily successful doing one market-defining thing, it is hard to have a second act with something entirely different.”

    What’s more, AI chat bots may not be telling the entire truth – and can produce answers that blend fiction and fact due to the fact that they learn their skills by analyzing vast troves of data posted to the internet. If accuracy is lowered, it could turn people off to using Google to find answers.

    Or, more likely, an AI chat bot may give you the correct, perfect answer on the first try – which would give people fewer reasons to click around, including on advertising.

    “Google has a business model issue,” said former Google and Yahoo employee Amr Awadallah, who now runes start-up company Vectara, which is building similar technology. “If Google gives you the perfect answer to each query, you won’t click on any ads.“

    Sundar Pichai, Google’s chief executive, has been involved in a series of meetings to define Google’s A.I. strategy, and he has upended the work of numerous groups inside the company to respond to the threat that ChatGPT poses, according to a memo and audio recording obtained by The New York Times. Employees have also been tasked with building A.I. products that can create artwork and other images, like OpenAI’s DALL-E technology, which has been used by more than three million people.

    From now until a major conference expected to be hosted by Google in May, teams within Google’s research, Trust and Safety, and other departments have been reassigned to help develop and release new A.I. prototypes and products. -NYT

    According to industry experts, Google will eventually need to decide whether it will overhaul its search engine to incorporate (or evolve into) a chat bot as the face of its flagship service.

    “A cool demo of a conversational system that people can interact with over a few rounds, and it feels mind-blowing? That is a good step, but it is not the thing that will really transform society,” suggested Zoubin Ghahramani, who oversees the A.I. lab Google Brain, in a November interview with The Times. “It is not something that people can use reliably on a daily basis.”

    Yet.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 21:15

  • Drowning In New Cases, China Finally Stops Releasing Daily Fabricated Covid "Data"
    Drowning In New Cases, China Finally Stops Releasing Daily Fabricated Covid “Data”

    And just like that,

    Nearly three full years after China first started reporting daily covid data which even the most naive claimed were fabricated, and just days after Beijing’s top health authority estimated that nearly 37 million Chinese were infected every single day last week as China finally gave up on its catastrophic zero-covid policy,  on Sunday China’s National Health Commission finally gave up rigging the data and announced it would stop publishing daily Covid-19 case numbers, after the accuracy of its data was questioned as millions were infected nationwide and the official tally remained strikingly low.

    The data had come into question after several Chinese cities reported daily infections that far surpassed the official tally, adding to doubt of the numbers provided by the NHC. And speaking of official numbers, the 25,000 or so daily cases are just a little below the 37 million new cases revealed recently, or 250 million in 3 weeks. And speaking of official data, it looks roughly as follows:

    The commission didn’t provide a reason for the change in policy in a statement on Sunday, but said that the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention will release Covid-related info for studies and reference.

    As reported previously, as many as a quarter billion people, or nearly 18% of the population, may have contracted the virus in the first 20 days of December, according to minutes from an internal meeting of China’s National Health Commission held on Wednesday. And while hospitals in major cities including Beijing and Shanghai have been overwhelmed, while some crematoriums are “struggling to cope”, this is all a perfectly normal transition, and a long overdue step toward herd immunity, something China should have done long ago.

    And since there aren’t literally piles of dead bodies strewn across China’s landscape, one can make their own conclusions about just how deadly and dangerous covid was, and how much propaganda went into the covid narrative over the past two years.

    In an illustration of just how fake China’s data has been all along, consider the following:

    • Zhejiang province, next to Shanghai, said it has more than 1 million daily Covid infections and expects the number to peak at 2 million, Zhejiang Daily reported Sunday, citing local officials as saying at a health briefing.
    • The city of Dongguan in the southern province of Guangdong said Friday that 250,000 to 300,000 people were being infected on a daily basis.
    • Qingdao city in the eastern province of Shandong is seeing 490,000 to 530,000 daily cases based on data projections, according to a local newspaper report.

    And yet, the official NHC tally for Dec. 23 was 4,103 cases.

    Of course, this is very similar to the sheer garbage reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics when it comes to the monthly jobs report, which keeps claiming that the US is generating hundreds of thousands of jobs even amid mass layoffs and a US consumer that has now imploded.

    As for China, the biggest trade-off of such a stark conclusion to “zero covid” is that while China faces an even more acute economic crunch in the coming weeks (see “China’s Economy Is Showing Increasing Strain From the Covid Tsunami“), it will then come out in mid/late-January with a clean economic slate and a naturally immune population that has nothing to fear as China’s economic rebound is unleashed on the world, sending a credit impulse shockwave around the globe.

    And to make sure it gets there faster, on Sunday China expanded the use of a homegrown Covid vaccine. A National Health Commission’s statement said that people who are three and above can receive a Covid vaccine developed by the Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products’ unit. Until now, it was approved only for adults. Those who are fully vaccinated with a Zhifei product can get one booster shot after six months, according to the statement. It’s unclear if Chinese “vaccines” have as many adverse and long-lasting side-effects as those developed by the likes of Pfizer and Moderna.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 20:34

  • The War On Christmas Is A War On America
    The War On Christmas Is A War On America

    Authored by Don Feeder via WashingtonTimes.com,

    Whatever unites us, the left is against…

    The left hates Christmas because it hates all expressions of faith in our society. On a deeper level, however, the War on Christmas is a war on America.

    In many ways, Christmas is as much an American holiday as a Christian holiday. (No trees or tinsel in Bethlehem.) Today, only 63% of Americans call themselves Christians, while 93% celebrate Christmas. In other words, almost a third of those who celebrate Christmas are non-Christians.

    More than Thanksgiving, Memorial Day or the Fourth of July, Christmas unites us as a people.

    Anything that brings Americans together, the left fears — like the flag, the national anthem and statues of our heroes. 

    This is reflected in the push to get Christmas trees out of public parks and libraries (which have no problem celebrating Pride Month and having “drag queen story hour”) and the holy war against holiday decorations in schools and other public places. Sales staff risk life and limb by wishing customers a “merry Christmas.”

    The mainstream media tries to gaslight us by telling us the War on Christmas was invented by conservative groups to raise money and mobilize the base. 

    You really can’t make this stuff up.

    The King County, Washington, Human Rights Commission has banned Christmas and Hanukkah decorations from the workplaces of county employees — including virtual workplaces. Even holiday-themed clothing is verboten.

    “Some employees may not share your religion, practice any religion, or share your enthusiasm for holiday decorations,” a memo from the commission explains.

    This exquisite sensitivity applies only to religious holidays. Everyone must take part in Pride Month and do homage to Black Lives Matter.

    On the other side of the continent, the War on Christmas has taken a nasty turn.

    The Needham, Massachusetts, Public Library decided it would break 28 years of tradition by not displaying a Christmas tree this year, because unnamed people said that last year, the evergreen made them “feel uncomfortable.” What, they thought the Tannenbaum would assault them, or try to convert them to Christianity?

    After a public outcry, the library relented. The reversal, in turn, set off a member of the town’s Human Rights Commission (HRCs are general headquarters for secularist witch hunts), who went full Grinch, calling the lady who championed the tree’s return a “selfish f—-ing b——” and “disgusting trash” who had somehow endangered the lives of municipal workers because “that’s what your magic sky daddy wants.” The billet-doux closed with the author wishing “great suffering” on the tree’s proponents. She has since resigned from her position.

    If the right invented the War on Christmas, why are there so many enemies of Yuletide cheer, who range from the mildly obnoxious to the downright hysterical?

    In part, it’s a sense of entitlement. Liberals believe they have a right not to be confronted with signs of a holiday they don’t celebrate. But it goes far beyond that to a matter of national identity. 

    The left is for everything that divides us — multiculturalism, critical race theory, sexual indoctrination in the schools and unisex bathrooms — and against everything that unites us. Nothing brings Americans together like Christmas — and I say that as a non-Christian.

    For most Americans, Christmas brings back happy childhood memories — fluffy snowflakes, colored lights, tinsel, mounds of presents, festively decorated trees and stories about flying sleighs and a jolly old gent who resembles your favorite uncle.

    Christmas seems to be a uniquely American holiday — Irving Berlin’s “White Christmas,” “I’ll Be Home for Christmas,” “Miracle on 34th Street,” “Yes, Virginia, There Is a Santa Claus,” and memories of a time before homeless encampments, illegal aliens streaming across the border, fentanyl and men in ballgowns demanding their inalienable right to invade ladies’ shower and changing rooms. Christmas reminds us of a time when America was sane — the normalcy for which many long.

    “Merry Christmas” is an expression of goodwill and hope for the future. Optimism is another American virtue.

    The War on Christmas isn’t just another dimension of the culture war, but psych warfare against Americanism. The left isn’t just gunning for Christmas trees, glad tidings and a Jolly Old Elf with a sack full of presents, but the American ideal, which we must fight to preserve.

    Like Natalie Wood’s character in “Miracle on 34th Street,” we must believe and keep right on believing — that there’s a mystical connection between Christmas and America.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 20:10

  • Los Angeles County Follows City, Extends COVID-Era Eviction Moratorium
    Los Angeles County Follows City, Extends COVID-Era Eviction Moratorium

    Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

    Los Angeles officials have extended COVID-era eviction moratoriums in the city and county until the end of January, continuing some of the nation’s longest-lasting policies that allow low-income residents to delay paying rent.

    Following the city’s footsteps, the county Board of Supervisors approved the extension Dec. 20. The board is also considering another six-month extension next year, citing fears of an “eviction tsunami” and increased homelessness.

    Extending the moratorium until the end of June would be “the right thing to do,” County Supervisor Hilda Solis said following the Dec. 20 board meeting.

    “It is unacceptable to let anyone fall into homelessness during a pandemic because they can’t afford to pay rent,” Solis wrote on Twitter. “We must do all we can to stabilize our families and prevent homelessness.”

    Los Angeles County supervisor Hilda Solis hosted a press conference Nov. 22 against hate crimes and in support of immigrant communities (Courtesy of Hilda Solis)

    One apartment owners’ group that sued over eviction restrictions last year expressed disappointment with the extensions.

    “After nearly three years of challenging rent collections and prohibitions on rent increases during an unprecedented inflationary period in our history, it is deplorable that Los Angeles County would seek to twist the knife blade even more into the hearts and souls of rental housing providers,” Daniel Yukelson, executive director of the Apartment Association of Greater Los Angeles, told The Epoch Times in an email.

    He said some renters have taken advantage of the moratoriums and restrictions by not paying rent and using the money to travel, buy new cars, and dine out whereas landlords “have suffered greatly under the financial strain.”

    In October, a district court judge blocked the county’s eviction moratorium, requiring officials to end or fix the policy to include language that makes clear renters can prove they have been impacted by COVID for each month they missed paying rent. The judge gave the county a deadline of Dec. 1.

    In the ruling, the judge agreed with the Apartment Association of Greater Los Angeles and the Apartment Owners Association of California, which claimed in a lawsuit that the moratorium was “unconstitutionally vague.”

    The policy was changed but the landlord groups don’t agree that the changes adequately or legally corrected the ordinance, according to Yukelson, and they plan to go back to court.

    “Our ruling will open the door for property owners harmed by the County’s unconstitutional ordinance to recover damages from the County under what could likely be class action litigation,” he added.

    The eviction moratorium went into effect in March 2020 and allows lower-income residents financially affected by COVID-19 to stop paying rent until the end of January. These residents can’t be evicted for nuisance violations or unauthorized occupants or pets and are exempt from no-fault evictions—which are normally allowed by law when landlords or their immediate family members need to move in.

    Renters and housing advocates attend a protest to cancel rent and avoid evictions in front of the courthouse amid the COVID-19 in Los Angeles on Aug. 21, 2020. (Valerie Macon/AFP via Getty Images)

    The moratorium doesn’t cancel the rental payment. Residents are still expected to replay the total amount owed. Landlords can pursue court action for unpaid rent, but many claim the moratorium has allowed some residents to stop paying rent for nearly three years.

    Los Angeles City Council voted Dec. 7 to end its eviction ban Jan. 31. Landlords can resume evicting tenants for not paying rent and other reasons starting Feb. 1.

    The city’s moratorium also prohibited—until February 2024—property owners from raising rents on the more than 650,000 rent-controlled units in the city.

    A report released Dec. 14 by the Economic Roundtable, a Los Angeles-based nonprofit research organization, claimed the eviction moratoriums helped slow the growth of homelessness by 43 percent in the county and 41 percent in California.

    Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority estimated this year nearly 70,000 remain homeless countywide and almost 42,000 citywide.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 19:45

  • 1-In-6 Illinoisans Rely On Food-Stamps For Christmas Dinner
    1-In-6 Illinoisans Rely On Food-Stamps For Christmas Dinner

    Authored by Patrick Andriesen via IllinoisPolicy.org,

    Illinois has the 6th-highest number of residents buying their meals with nutrition benefits, and the number grew almost 11% from a year earlier.

    More than 2 million low-income Illinoisans will put holiday dinner on the table with Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits this December, the sixth most per capita nationwide.

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports 15.9% of Illinoisans – or 1 in 6 – received food assistance in September 2022. The average recipient collected $245 a month.

    Data shows 10.7% more Illinois residents are receiving SNAP benefits than during September 2021. Federal food assistance participation increased just 2% nationwide during that time.

    While SNAP programs help thousands of Illinois families put food on table each year, rampant inflation and supply chain challenges mean benefits don’t stretch as far for program participants.

    A study by Datasembly found holiday dinner prices increased 16.4% from December 2021, raising the average cost for a family meal t0 $60.29. That’s roughly a quarter of program participants’ monthly food budget.

    Federal food assistance payments grew 12.5% to match food inflation for the 12 months ending October 2022 and will increase with inflation next October. While benefits have also been expanded under the federal Public Health Emergency, recipients will still bear the costs of any additional price increases tied to inflation between those adjustments.

    State lawmakers suspended the 1% tax on groceries until July 1, temporarily offering Illinoisans the same financial relief that residents in 13 other states receive year-round.

    Permanently suspending the grocery tax alongside introducing grocery tax credits would guarantee Illinoisans keep benefiting long after the holiday season ends.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 19:00

  • San Francisco Businesses Demand Tax Refund Over Drugs, Crime, & Homelessness Crisis
    San Francisco Businesses Demand Tax Refund Over Drugs, Crime, & Homelessness Crisis

    Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

    Dozens of San Francisco business owners have formed a new association, demanding that the city government provide tax refunds because of out-of-control streets.

    The “Tenderloin Business Coalition,” which consists of 135 businesses and property owners in San Francisco’s Tenderloin district, has demanded tax refunds for 2022 after dealing with a wave of rampant crime, homelessness, and drug use that has financially hurt the neighborhood, The San Francisco Chronicle reported.

    An openly illicit drug trade has driven frightened customers from taxpaying neighborhood businesses, leaving the district located in the city’s downtown area on the verge of collapse, said the business association.

    This is not the first community association to demand action from city hall.

    Districts in San Francisco Demand Action Against Vagrant Behavior

    Back in August, businesses in the Castro district also threatened to withhold paying taxes if their demands for improved street conditions were not met.

    Castro district merchants had been complaining to city officials for years about mentally ill homeless people with drug addictions devastating their businesses.

    The Castro Merchants Association sent a letter to city hall on Aug. 8, urging officials to “take action,” as the area was “struggling.”

    They wrote that vagrants living on the streets “regularly experience psychotic episodes” and have vandalized storefronts and harassed business owners, employees, residents, and tourists.

    “If the city can’t provide the basic services for them to become a successful business, then what are we paying for?” Dave Karraker, the association’s co-leader, told The San Francisco Chronicle.

    Mayor London Breed pledged in September to send more police to the Castro district in response.

    Local Business Owners Fed Up With City Hall’s Weak Response

    Meanwhile, in a petition to Breed, the Tenderloin petition signers demanded “a full and complete refund of all sales tax and property taxes paid to the City of San Francisco in the fiscal year 2022” after city authorities allegedly abandoned their responsibility to protect its citizens, reported The San Francisco Chronicle.

    “The city has abandoned its commitment to provide a baseline of safety in the neighborhood, thus significant effort and investments made by the business owners and property owners to keep their blocks safe and clean have come to nothing. It is clear the state of the neighborhood is declining. We represent that this is a violation of the City’s implicit bargain with the taxpayer: pay your taxes and the city will ensure safe streets,” the business coalition wrote.

    “The neighborhood is not safe because the streets are controlled by drug dealers. Drug dealers operate in very clear and obvious ways to any rational observer. … They prey on residents, openly steal from Tenderloin businesses, they intimidate and extort passersby and all of this behavior goes unchecked by law enforcement,” the group explained.

    “Our customers are unwilling to enter the neighborhood to patronize our businesses,” the petition added.

    “The result is a catastrophic loss of revenue for the small businesses that are vital to the health and safety of the neighborhood. Due to this untenable situation, businesses are closing and there is a real and palpable fear that the neighborhood is now on the verge of collapse,” they warned.

    The Tenderloin Business Coalition has demanded an immediate crackdown on the drug dealers who have invaded the Tenderloin by applying “ongoing and rigorous law enforcement” and a meeting with Breed within the week to hear her “plan to take back the streets from the drug dealers and produce permanent results.”

    Mayor Promises to Address Homelessness and Drug Addict Crisis

    The mayor was forced to declare a state of emergency in 2021 over the rampant drug use in the Tenderloin.

    “Mayor Breed has been clear on our need to end open air drug dealing in the Tenderloin,” the mayor’s office told NBC Bay Area.

    “The mayor knows this is challenging work, and she is partnering with the district attorney, who is focused on bringing prosecutions and supporting the police department to make the arrests.”

    The mayor has promised to alleviate San Francisco’s overwhelmed 911 call system regarding low-level homeless incidents by deploying community workers, instead of the police, to handle the response.

    Breed said that the city is also hamstrung by legal limitations that prevent mentally disturbed people from being put under court-ordered treatment.

    She said that the city will utilize a newly created state program called “Care Court,” which would force them to get help along with the backing of the local counties, starting in 2023.

    Tenderloin business owner Chai Saechao told NBC Bay Area that he was looking forward to celebrating the five-year anniversary of his store, “Plant Therapy,” next year.

    However, he said that it was harder to stay in business in the district, making him worried.

    “A lot of businesses have closed down and you know, the best restaurants have closed down. So, it’s very sad to see,” Saechao said.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 18:15

  • Bank of America's Guide How To Talk To Your Family About The Economy Over The Holidays
    Bank of America’s Guide How To Talk To Your Family About The Economy Over The Holidays

    By Bank of America chief global economist, Aditya Bhave

    We’ve all been there. You work in finance, so inevitably someone will approach you at a holiday gathering and ask you about the economy. But we’ve got your back. In this report, we list 10 questions you might get asked. For each question, we suggest both a short response – in case dessert is served or you just don’t want to talk shop – and a more detailed response – if you really want to engage in the conversation. As a disclaimer, these are the views of BofA Global Research’s US Economics team. Others might answer these questions differently, but that would only liven up the discussion!

    1. “Are we in a recession? Didn’t we have two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth this year?”

    Short answer: Not yet.

    Longer answer: We had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 1Q and 2Q 2022. This amounts to what’s known as a “technical recession”. But the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes the “official” call on whether we are in a recession. The NBER looks at several economic indicators, not just GDP. A few of those indicators are related to the labor market (job creation and wage growth), so it’s unlikely that we will enter an NBER-defined recession until the labor market cracks. At the moment the labor market is still very hot, due to both strong demand for workers and labor supply shortages.

    Technical recessions typically overlap with NBER-defined recessions. This time is different because GDP has been distorted by large swings in the trade and inventory data. Once we exclude these components, we see that final domestic demand (i.e., consumer spending, residential and business investment, and government spending), is weak, but is still growing (Exhibit 1).

    * * *

    2. “So when will the next recession start?”

    Short answer: Probably next year.

    Longer answer: The tipping point for a recession should be when the labor market slows materially. Consumer spending has been relatively resilient so far. If the labor market breaks, not only will the NBER’s recession criteria likely get triggered, but consumer spending will also probably weaken significantly. Since the consumer is nearly 70% of the economy, that would drive domestic demand lower. We will probably go into a mild recession next year.

    The labor market is likely to weaken next year for a few reasons. First, hiring has outpaced GDP growth by a long way this year. Payrolls have grown by over 2.5%, while real GDP growth has been less than 1%. This is not sustainable. Second, higher rates (due to Fed hikes) are hurting business and residential investment. The housing market is already in a recession and the manufacturing sector appears to be following suit. This should eventually translate into job losses. Third, the Fed hiked rates by 425bp this year and Fed hikes affect the economy with “long and variable lags”. So a lot of the economic and labor market damage from this year’s Fed tightening probably hasn’t happened yet.

    * * *

    3. “This feels like the most widely anticipated recession that I can remember. Is there a chance that we could talk ourselves into a recession?”

    Short answer: Yes and no.

    Longer answer: There is some truth to the idea that recessions can be self-fulfilling prophecies. If businesses expect weaker consumer demand, they might stop investing and start laying off workers. Similarly, consumers might pull back on spending if they are concerned about an economic slowdown. Such precautionary behavior would likely create the recession that everyone was worried about.

    But it isn’t as simple as that. Painful recessions are generally due to the build-up of excesses in the economy. If consumers and businesses start to become cautious before such excesses build, that could limit the scope of any potential downturn. The three sectors in the economy in which these excesses usually build are consumer durables, residential investment and business investment. Currently there only modest signs of excess in these sectors (Exhibit 2). Yet banks have already started to become less willing to lend to consumers (Exhibit 3). So perhaps the recession has been so well telegraphed that it turns out to be self-inhibiting rather than self-fulfilling.

    * * *

    4. “You said the housing market is in a recession. Are we headed for a housing crisis?”

    Short answer: Probably not.

    Longer answer: Housing is arguably the most rates-sensitive sector of the economy. Therefore it is no surprise that very aggressive Fed hikes have pushed the housing market into recession (Exhibit 4). After all, the 30-year mortgage rate increased from around 3% at the start of last year to more than 7% briefly, and is still well north of 6%. Tight supply – of construction labor, materials, etc. – has further hindered housing activity, although it has helped support prices (Exhibit 5).

    However, this doesn’t mean we are headed for a crisis. Slowdowns in specific sectors turn into economy-wide crises when there are conditions in place that amplify their impact. In the run-up to the financial crisis, speculation (rather than fundamentals) played a big role in the demand for housing, adjustable-rate mortgages were more common, lending standards were loose and households were levering up their home equity using home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).

    In the post-pandemic housing boom, demand was driven by a big generation of millennials moving into larger spaces, a very large majority of mortgages were locked in at fixed rates (so people who already have mortgages will generally not be hurt by Fed hikes), lending standards were relatively tight and there was limited use of HELOCs. Moreover, regulators are much more vigilant about the risks of a housing crisis. At the start of the pandemic there was significant forbearance for borrowers. This is likely to repeat if there is growing risk of a crisis, in order to prevent fire sales. All of this suggests that another housing crisis is unlikely.

    5. “You don’t sound overly concerned about the economy. Is there a chance we’ll avoid a recession entirely next year?”

    Short answer: There’s always a chance, but we’re likely to have at least a mild recession.

    Longer answer: We won’t get a recession until the labor market weakens materially. Job growth has been resilient of late. We probably added around 4mn jobs in 2022, and over 800k in the last three months. To put that in context, we need to create just 50-100k jobs per month to match the growth rate of the population. This means it’s quite possible that the economy could avoid a recession in the first half of 2023.

    However, it will be harder to avoid a recession for the full year. Here’s the issue. As long as the labor market remains hot, there is a risk that job growth and higher wages will create more inflation down the line. So the Fed would likely respond by raising rates even higher, which would inflict even more pain on the economy later next year. In other words, a delayed recession might mean a deeper one. We need to be careful what we wish for.

    * * *

    6. “You make it sound like the Fed is determined to break the labor market. What’s so special about 2% inflation anyway? Wouldn’t it be better to accept higher inflation than cause a recession?”

    Short answer: There is nothing special about 2%. But abandoning the target now would put the Fed on a slippery slope. Unfortunately, the only way to get and keep inflation under control is to materially weaken the labor market.

    Longer answer: In general, low but positive inflation is considered best for economic growth. Why? On the one hand, outright deflation causes consumers to delay purchases in anticipation of lower prices. As we have seen in Japan, this damages growth prospects. On the other hand, high single-digit or double-digit inflation is problematic because it tends to also be more volatile, creating uncertainty, which in turn slows spending and investment. Central banks across developed markets settled on 2% because it is a low rate of inflation that still gives them a sizeable buffer from deflation.

    This is the first time the Fed’s commitment to taming inflation has been seriously tested in about four decades. If the Fed were to change its inflation target to say 4%, it would be on a slippery slope (Global Economic Weekly: What is so special about 2%?). If 4% is acceptable, why not 6% or 8%? So the target would lose credibility in the eyes of investors. But it’s possible that if inflation gets stuck a little bit above target (say 3%), the Fed would accept a longer time frame to get back to 2% instead of inflicting a lot of economic pain to get there sooner.

    The Fed generally looks at core inflation, i.e. inflation ex of food and energy, because food and energy prices tend to be more volatile and driven by factors outside the Fed’s control (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict). In a recent speech, Fed Chair Powell noted that services besides housing make up more than half of the core consumer spending basket (Exhibit 6). These services are labor-intensive and are seeing rapid job and wage growth as consumers return to pre-pandemic spending habits. Higher labor costs are pushing up prices (Exhibit 7). Therefore the only way for the Fed to bring core inflation back to 2% in a manner that is sustainable over time is to weaken the labor market.

    * * *

    7. “But inflation is already getting better, right?”

    Short answer: Yes, but it might not last.

    Longer answer: Goods prices spiked in the spring of 2021 because of supply-chain disruptions and huge demand for stay-at-home goods from US consumers who were awash with cash. At the time, the ARPA (American Rescue Plan Act) had just been implemented. It was the last of three big stimulus packages, the others being the CARES (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security) Act and the CAA (Consolidated Appropriations Act) of 2020. Now supply issues have largely been sorted out and goods demand is slowing. So goods prices have started to fall. That’s helping to slow overall inflation, but the faster goods prices correct, the sooner they will stop correcting.

    The US economy is predominantly a services economy. And as we discussed earlier, the only way to bring services inflation under control is to slow the labor market down. Unless that happens, the risk is that overall inflation will pick up again once goods prices stop falling.

    * * *

    8. “How are US consumers dealing with higher inflation, particularly in necessities such as food and energy?”

    Short answer: Inflation is painful, but a strong labor market and pandemic-era stimulus have helped the consumer to remain resilient.

    Longer answer: For the US consumer, there is an ongoing tug-of-war between inflation and labor market gains. Food and energy inflation has been particularly challenging for lower-income households, who spend a larger share of their income on necessities. But they are also experiencing strong job growth and the fastest wage inflation in the economy (Exhibit 8). This is offsetting some of the pain from inflation and allowing consumer spending to remain relatively resilient.

    The US consumer is also still being propped up by excess savings from the pandemic-era fiscal stimulus packages. Consumers still probably have more than $1 trillion in excess savings, which they are drawing down at a rate of about $100bn per month, partially in response to the inflation shock (Exhibit 9). So these savings could be a tailwind to consumer spending for a few more quarters.

    * * *

    9. “I read that US consumers have racked up nearly $1trillion in credit card debt. How concerning is this?”

    Short answer: It isn’t very concerning yet.

    Longer answer: Credit card debt has increased from less than $800bn at the start of last year to $925bn as of 3Q 2022. This is a sharp increase that certainly bears watching. It is probably being driven by both liquidity constraints for consumers and increasing interest rates. The level of credit card debt is close to the all-time high, reached just before the pandemic.

    But it is important to remember that what matters with debt is consumers’ capacity to service it. Income has also been growing rapidly, and that helps a lot. Credit card debt was less than 5% of disposable income in 3Q 2022 (Exhibit 10). This is lower than at any time before the pandemic (the data go back to 1999). The trend is similar with credit card delinquencies: they are on the rise, but they are still below pre-pandemic levels.

    * * *

    10. “Are consumers spending as generously over the holidays as they did last year? Also, could you please pass the cranberry sauce?”

    [First pass the cranberry sauce]

    Short answer: No, but that isn’t a big surprise.

    Longer answer: The holiday shopping season is obviously very important for the US consumer. Last year’s shopping season was historic, so it isn’t a huge surprise that we’re tracking weaker spending on holiday goods this year (Exhibit 11). Another factor weighing on the dollar value of holiday spending this year is that discounts have potentially been deeper and more back-loaded than last year. So we really need to adjust for inflation/deflation and wait until the end of the holiday season to get a full picture of holiday spending.

    Finally, consumers are rotating back to services from goods as the impact of the pandemic fades (Exhibit 12). Last year, consumption of services during the holidays was disrupted by the omicron variant outbreak. People responded by spending more on holiday presents. This year, they are probably traveling more, dining out more and attending shows, concerts, sports events, etc.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 17:30

  • Three Busloads Of Migrants Dropped Off At VP Harris' Home On Christmas Eve
    Three Busloads Of Migrants Dropped Off At VP Harris’ Home On Christmas Eve

    Three buses full of recently apprehended illegal immigrants were dropped off near the home of Vice President Kamala Harris on Christmas eve.

    While Texas authorities have not confirmed whether they’re behind it, the dropoffs “are in line with previous actions by border-state governors calling attention to the Biden administration’s immigration policies,” AP reports.

    The buses that arrived late Saturday outside the vice president’s residence were carrying around 110 to 130 people, according to Tatiana Laborde, managing director of SAMU First Response, a relief agency working with the city of Washington to serve thousands of migrants who have been dropped off in recent months.

    Local organizers had expected the buses to arrive Sunday but found out Saturday that the group would get to Washington early, Laborde said. The people on board included young children. -AP

    The poorly timed dropoff came as temperatures in DC hovered around 15-degrees Farenheit (-9 Celsius) – the coldest Christmas Eve in Washington, according to the Washington Post.

    According to Laborde, SAMU First Response provided blankets and quickly shuttled the migrants onto new buses to an area church, while a local restaurant donated dinner and breakfast.

    Christian Flores / Twitter

    Most of the migrants were headed to other destinations, with the DC stop expected to be temporary.

    Last week, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s office said they had relocated more than 15,000 migrants to liberal ‘sanctuary cities’ since April – including Washington, New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia.

    Harris, President Biden’s border czar, has overseen the relaxing of restrictions on migrants that have caused a flood of Central Americans to leave their countries of origin and head north.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 16:45

  • My Christmas Gift To Greta
    My Christmas Gift To Greta

    Authored by Ray Jason via The Burning Platform blog,

    Greta,

    You don’t know me, but we share something in common that is very special. That something is enormous and powerful and beautiful and elemental. That something is Mother Ocean.

    I too have spent long periods of time at sea. My longest ocean passage was 30 days, sailing my little 30 foot boat from Hawaii to San Francisco. In my case, I was also doing this alone.

    So you have experienced something of extraordinary magnificence. You have glided – or on difficult days – pounded – across the Wide Waters. Very few people have ever done this. To be hundreds of miles from the nearest humans, in the gigantic vastness of the Sea, can teach a person just how tiny we are compared to the mighty eco-systems of our watery planet. And looking up at the immense dome of stars, with the clarity of deep-ocean darkness, reinforces that lesson in humility even more.

    This stark difference between the so-called Real World and weeks spent on the rolling waves, always inspires me to examine Life more deeply and independently. Being separated from normal, everyday living, allows one to question the accepted and conventional worldviews.

    And so I wonder if sometimes when you were alone on a night watch, did you ever try to step away from the whirlwind that has been your recent life, and examine whether those who have guided your meteoric rise have been truly honest with you – and helpful to you. Did you ever question whether your advisers were as benevolent and noble as they claimed? Did you ever fear that perhaps you were being controlled like a human marionette?

    The reason I do not feel guilty asking such questions, is because I too was once a fervent believer in human-driven Climate Change. But the further that I advance into the Autumn of my Life, the more I embrace The Need for Truth. And to achieve that, I find it wise to question everything.

    So I took a deep and close look at the supposedly “settled science.” Amazingly, I discovered that the “97% consensus” was just statistical trickery, and that there are many scientists who question the accepted truths of NOAA and the IPCC and NASA, etc. And they do this despite enormous efforts to silence their voices, and to heap scorn upon them for questioning the prevailing dogma.

    Therefore, because I believe that your concern and alarm for our planetary future is sincere and well-intended, I offer you a Christmas gift. My present for you is Scientific Optimism.

    There are many, many researchers who demonstrate with considerable evidence that Planet Earth has gone through cataclysmic events far worse than the ones we fear today. These previous catastrophes were not caused by human activities. Mother Earth weathered those crises, and emerged as the only lush and life-rich planet among those zillions of stars that you saw so clearly when you were out on the Atlantic Ocean.

    Greta, in order to demonstrate that there truly is justification for Scientific Optimism, I will briefly discuss two of the most frequently discussed phenomena which supposedly prove that Climate Change poses an existential threat to life on Earth. And I will show you evidence that you have probably never been exposed to, that, hopefully, will diminish your grave concerns.

    The two that I have selected are the Melting Arctic and the Disappearing Polar Bears. These two were chosen because I have direct experience in these areas.

    THE ICE-FREE ARCTIC

    In 2017, some dear friends offered me the wonderful opportunity to attempt a sailboat voyage across the fabled Northwest Passage through the Arctic from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Because of my love of adventure and of dangerous, faraway places, I accepted immediately.

    Our fiberglass sailboat spent months in the Arctic attempting to make it across. I can assure you that it was not ice-free. Far from it, we struggled through frightening conditions in which we had to ponder turning back.

    Here is a photo that is typical of the seemingly impenetrable ice that we had to find a path through.

    But we persevered and made it. We were the 256th boat to make it through in the 111 years since the first successful passage. Prior to that superb human achievement, there were hundreds of years of failures and hundreds of lives lost.

    Before embarking on this quest, I did considerable research. Some people argued that this undertaking was no longer praiseworthy, since the ice in the far north had supposedly melted. But when I carefully investigated this, I discovered a lot of fiction where there should have been facts. Yes, there had been many authorities predicting that the Arctic Ice Cap would soon melt, but inconveniently, it had refused to do so.

    NASA claimed it would be gone in 2012. The Naval Research Lab guessed 2013. Al Gore placed his bet on 2014. And James Hansen hedged his wager by suggesting sometime between 2013 and 2018. They were all wrong! But the mainstream media never mentions these failures. Yet, they will undoubtedly trumpet the next ice-free prediction, which will probably be as incorrect as all of the previous guesses.

    Here is another deliberate deception about the Arctic that has been foisted on the world. In order to “prove” that the Arctic is rapidly disappearing, the Climate Change defenders picked 1978 as the start date for their tracking of Arctic ice extent.

    Since there has been data on the amount of ice for about 100 years, it seems odd that they would select that particular year. It seems a whole lot less odd when you learn that 1978 had the highest ice total in about 100 years. Therefore, by starting at that point the data will be distorted in favor of a rapid decline in Arctic ice. In other words, there has been a campaign of deliberate deceit.

    POLAR BEAR EXTINCTION CLAIMS

    The “Death of the Polar Bears” is a fraud on so many levels, that it is difficult to know where to begin.

    They are portrayed as cold weather versions of Panda bears. Pandas are large and slow and adorable. They are also vegetarian and mostly eat bamboo.

    Polar bears eat meat and they are one of the most ruthless alpha predators on the planet. They are most definitely not cute and cuddly. They can attack from land or sea and they are strong and fast in both elements. We never went ashore without a loaded high-power rifle. To a polar bear, we were not ecologists there to protect them, we were meat.

    So let’s take a truthful look at how these powerful carnivores are doing. In about 1960 there were only about 6,000 Polar bears left in the Arctic Basin. But they were not in decline because of Climate Change, their numbers were dropping because they were being hunted to extinction.

    Rich trophy hunters could fly to remote locations and hire a guide to help them shoot one of these magnificent creatures. They would then end up as rug or a snarling head on a wall. This was clearly despicable and needed to end.

    Fortunately, in 1973, all of the nations in that part of the world signed a treaty banning that horrific practice. So today, the leading experts estimate that the population has now reached about 25,000 Polar bears.

    The main reason that they still remain on the Endangered Species list of some countries, is not scientific; it is political – they are the poster child for Climate Change.

    Here is a photo that I took in the Northwest Passage of a mom and her cub.

    They are magnificent creatures – at a distance. I am delighted that they are not declining – they are flourishing.

    BUT WHY?

    Hopefully, this fresh perspective on the issues of the Melting Arctic and the Disappearing Polar Bears, will convince you to seek out evidence that has been hidden from you. Surely, you might wonder why your friends and advisers would lie to you. I believe that there are two main reasons.

    1) The true goal of the Climate Change juggernaut is NOT to save the planet. It is to restructure society and re-distribute global wealth.

    This quote from Christiana Figures, a recent U.N. Climate Chief, clearly states the actual agenda:

    “It must be understood that what is occurring here in the whole climate change process is the complete transformation of the economic structure of the world.”

    And Ottmar Edenhoffer, who was the lead author on the IPCC Fourth Assessment, echoes Christiana’s position with this statement:

    “One must say clearly that we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy. One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore.”

    Furthermore, AOC’s Green New Deal is also not primarily about the environment. Here is a recent quote from her Chief of Staff, Saikat Chakrabarti:

    “The interesting thing about the Green New Deal, is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all. Do you guys think of it as a climate thing? Because we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy-thing.”

    2) The second reason that so many people have been deceiving you, Greta, is because the rewards of supporting the Climate Change orthodox position are enormous. On the other hand, when you oppose that agenda, you are burned at the cyber-stake.

    All of the perks flow in one direction. Those who buy into the “impending doom scenario” get published in prestigious journals, appear on television, get invited to conferences, receive research grant money, etc.

    But those who question the supposed settled science, are cast out of polite society and scorned as vile “deniers.” Is it any wonder that your advisers have steered you in the direction that they have?

    A GLIMMER OF HOPE

    Greta, it is likely that you will never see this letter. And even if you do, I suspect that it will have very little influence upon you. But if I could make only one, small, heartfelt request of you, it would be this.

    There are now millions of youngsters all around the world who are severely traumatized with fears for their future. Please toss them a little bouquet of Hope.

    Perhaps suggest that our wonderful planet is enormously complex, and we certainly do not totally understand how her many systems of land, water, and atmosphere behave. And therefore, we can conclude that maybe … just maybe … the situation is not nearly as dire as we have been told.

    Merry Christmas, young lady, from an old sea gypsy.

    Captain Ray Jason in the Northwest Passage 2017

    *  *  *

    For more of Ray’s work, please visit The Sea Gypsy Philosopher.  And Merry Christmas everyone.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 16:00

  • Putin 100% Sure US-Supplied Patriot Systems Will Be Destroyed In Ukraine
    Putin 100% Sure US-Supplied Patriot Systems Will Be Destroyed In Ukraine

    In Sunday statements Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to destroy the Patriot anti-air missile systems that the Biden White House pledged to supply Ukraine days ago.

    He said that he’s 100% certain that Russian forces will eradicate them when they appear inside Ukraine. “Of course, we’ll take them out, 100%!” he emphasized in an interview with Rossiya-1 television on Sunday.

    US Army/Defense Post

    But he also noted that so far these systems are not in the hands of the Ukrainians. It could take months or even a year for the Patriots to actually become operational in Ukraine, given how complex they are and how many crew-members are needed to operate them.

    There are roughly 90 soldiers in a Patriot battery, with each crewmember having to undergo extensive training. The Pentagon has indicated that Ukrainians could be trained out of a base in Germany, or there are reports even suggesting this could take place inside the United States.

    Each missile fired from the Patriot system costs about $4 million, ranking it among the single-most expensive weapons provided to Ukraine thus far throughout the war.

    However, Putin days ago dismissed its significance as a potential battlefield game-changer, saying “the Patriot is a fairly outdated system” and that an “antidote” to this weapon will be found.

    Patriots have long been deployed in neighboring Poland, but Ukrainian leaders have been persistent in requesting them on their own soil amid a major uptick in recent Russian aerial attacks. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The systems will mark the longest-range missiles sent to Ukraine thus far, and for this reason Washington was earlier reluctant, on fears that the precedent of longer-range and more advanced munitions only increases the chance of direct escalation between the US and Russia.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 15:15

  • What To Tell Your Family At The Xmas Dinner Table About What Happened In Crypto This Year
    What To Tell Your Family At The Xmas Dinner Table About What Happened In Crypto This Year

    Authored by Prashant Jha via CoinTelegraph.com,

    Christmas dinner could get awkward for crypto advocates who were adamant about their families investing last year…here’s a small recap of what happened in crypto this year.

    After a lackluster rise of crypto in 2021, which saw many new crypto millionaires and several crypto startups attain unicorn status, came the dramatic fall in 2022. The industry was plagued by macroeconomic pressures, scandals and meltdowns that wiped out fortunes virtually overnight. 

    As 2022 comes to a close, many crypto proponents are perplexed about the state of the industry, especially in light of the recent FTX collapse and the contagion it has caused, taking down several firms associated with it.

    Many who couldn’t stop talking about crypto and recommending their family to invest in it last year at Christmas dinner could see the tables turn this year, with them having a lot of explaining to do about the state of crypto today. While as awkward as that conversation is going to be, Cointelegraph prepared a small recap to help ‘crypto bros and sisters’ explain what really happened to crypto in 2022 when market pundits were expecting the rise to continue throughout the year.

    The downfall was universal, but crypto turned it into a contagion

    The start of the crypto downfall was triggered by external factors, including growing inflation, rate hikes from the United States Federal Reserve and the international conflict between Ukraine and Russia that shook investor confidence in the market, leading to a sell-off in traditional and crypto markets.

    The external market conditions, aided by the unchecked centralized decision-making process, claimed its first big player of this bull cycle in Terra. The $40-billion ecosystem was reduced to ruins within days. More importantly, it created a crypto contagion that claimed at least half a dozen other crypto players, mainly crypto lenders that had exposure to the Terra ecosystem.

    The collapse of the Terra ecosystem had the greatest impact on lenders, bankrupting Three Arrows Capital and many others. Celsius paused withdrawals due to extreme market conditions, causing crypto prices to fall, and then declared bankruptcy. BlockFi had to be bailed out by FTX with a $400 million cash injection.

    At the time, FTX seemed too eager to bail out several troubled crypto lenders. But, just a quarter later, it turned out FTX was not as liquid and cash-rich as it claimed to be. In fact, the crypto exchange was using its native tokens and in-house, non-existent projects as leverage against multi-billion-dollar valuations and loans. Its sister company, Alameda Research, was found to be involved in building a house of cards that eventually came crashing down in November.

    The FTX crypto exchange and its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, have built a philanthropic outlook for the world, turned out to be outright fraud and stole customers’ funds. The former CEO was found to be misappropriating customers’ funds and was eventually arrested in the Bahamas on Dec. 11.

    Bankman-Fried was extradited to the United States on charges of securities fraud and misappropriation of funds. However, the former CEO managed to secure a bail plea against a $250 million bond paid by his parents who put up their house to cover his astronomical bail bond.

    While the arrest of Bankman-Fried and his trial in the U.S. have given some hope to FTX users, the chances of many customers getting back their funds are very slim as lawyers have predicted that it might take years and even decades to get the funds back.

    SBF in handcuffs during his extradition to the U.S. Photo: Royal Bahamas Police

    Two back-to-back crypto contagions caused by a series of bad decision-making and the greed of a few, might not be an easy thing to explain to the family. So, own up — everyone makes mistakes in the bull market, thinking they are doing the right thing by getting their family involved. However, one can always talk about the bright sides and the lessons learned from the mistakes, and the 2022 crypto contagion is no different.

    Centralized exchanges and coins may come and go, but Bitcoin will stay

    Terra ecosystem’s collapse was a significant setback for the crypto industry —both in terms of value and how the outside world perceives it. Crypto managed to bear the brunt of the collapse and was on its way to redemption, only to face another knock in the form of FTX. The FTX saga is far from over but it highlighted what corruption and hefty donations can do to your public image even when you have robbed people billions of their money.

    The mainstream media frenzy saw the likes of the New York Times and Forbes write puff pieces for the criminal former CEO before the charges were framed against him. Bankman Fried was portrayed as someone who was a victim of bad decisions when FTX and Alameda were involved in illicit trading from day one, as mentioned by SEC in their charges.

    The FTX downfall and the crypto contagion are being portrayed by many as the end of trust in the crypto ecosystem. U.S. regulators are warning that it is only the start of the crypto crackdown, with SEC chief Gary Gensler comparing crypto platforms and intermediaries to casinos.

    However, any crypto veteran will tell you that the industry has seen much worse and has always bounced back to its feet. While the collapse of the third largest crypto exchange (FTX) is definitely significant, it doesn’t come close to the Mt. Gox hack from the early days of crypto exchanges.

    Mt. Gox was once the biggest external factor that cast doubt on the cryptocurrency industry, especially Bitcoin. When the exchange was hacked in 2014, it account for more than 70% of BTC transactions at the time. The hack did have a wild impact on the price of BTC at the time, but the market shot back up again in the next cycle.

    Click “Collect” below the illustration at the top of the page or follow this link.

    Years later, the FTX collapse once again reminded users of the risks involved with centralized entities, triggering a significant movement of funds from centralized exchanges to self-custody wallets.” Self-custody wallets allow users to serve as their own bank, but the trade-off is that wallet security also becomes their sole responsibility.

    Crypto users are withdrawing their funds from crypto exchanges at a rate not seen since April 2021, with nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges in November, moving them to self-custody wallets.

    New data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the number of wallets receiving BTC from exchange addresses hit almost 90,000 on Nov. 9. The movement of funds away from exchanges are usually a bullish sign that BTC is being “hodled” for the long term.

    Every other token might look lucrative in a bull run, as evident from the last one where the likes of LUNA, Shiba Inu and Dogecoin broke into the top 10. But today, these projects be it Terra-LUNA or meme coins are either obsolete or far from their bull run hype.

    Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, has seen downfalls of several major exchanges over the past decade and yet has come up on top of each of those collapses in the next cycle. This is the reason most early crypto investors and Bitcoin proponents often advocate for self-custody and hodling BTC over investing in new altcoins that might seem lucrative in a bull run, but there is no guarantee that they would make it to the next bull run

    The collapse of these centralized entities in 2022 could also prompt policymakers to eventually come up with some form of official universal regulations to ensure investor security.

    The bottom line

    The core technology of decentralization and Bitcoin, the OG cryptocurrency, is here to stay regardless of the crypto entities involved in facilitating different use cases and services on top of them. 2023 could see a new wave of crypto reforms, with more aware users who believe in self-custody rather than letting their funds sit on exchanges. Also, it’s better not to give out financial advice to anyone, especially in a bull market.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 14:30

  • The Soaring Cost Of Christmas Dinner
    The Soaring Cost Of Christmas Dinner

    The average cost of a Christmas dinner for four has risen to £31 in the UK, according to data published by Kantar. This is a more than 9 percent increase from 2021, as inflation and the cost-of-living crisis continues to hit consumers.

    As Statista;s Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, parsnips saw the biggest percentage change of the selected Christmas dinner items, rising some 30 percent year-on-year. Potatoes also saw significant hikes, rising some 20 percent, while a frozen turkey will set buyers back an additional 15 percent this season.

    Infographic: The Cost of Christmas Dinner | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    According to Kantar, the combination of inflation and festive spending means this December is set to be the biggest ever for take-home grocery sales, with Friday 23 predicted to be the busiest day for pre-Christmas shopping.

    As buyers try to offset rising costs, more people are opting for own label commodities, which are now up 11.7 percent since the year before. The cheapest value own label lines have skyrocketed 46.3 percent, while premium own label sales increased by 6.1 percent, hitting £461 million as of November, as some shoppers managed to find some space to treat themselves.

    It is worth noting here that the rate of grocery price inflation actually saw a drop for the first time in nearly two years when Kantar’s data was published, with four-week inflation in the run up to November 27 falling 0.1 percentage points to 14.6 percent.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 13:45

  • Global Warming? It's Snowing In Miami At Packers-Dolphins Game
    Global Warming? It’s Snowing In Miami At Packers-Dolphins Game

    Footage of what appears to be snowflakes falling from the skies over Miami at the Hard Rock Stadium has been uploaded onto Twitter Christmas morning. Football fans whipped out their smartphones to film the rare weather phenomenon in South Florida. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    A nearby National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather station recorded about 37 degrees Fahrenheit around the time the videos of snowflakes were posted on social media. 

    There has been no confirmation by any government weather agency about the snow. But Matthew Cappucci, meteorologist for Capital Weather Gang, reported:

    “Yes, it snowed about a hour and a half ago in Brevard County on the Space Coast. It was mostly sleet, but a few snow flurries were mixed in.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It appears Green Bay might have brought the snow. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Global warming alarmists who said the Earth would imminently burn this past summer will have trouble explaining this. They might respond by saying, ‘it’s because of climate change.’ Well, we have news for them, the climate has been changing for millions of years. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 13:33

  • 22 Memes To Help Get You Through Christmas
    22 Memes To Help Get You Through Christmas

    Via Off-Guardian.org,

    So this is Christmas,
    And what have we done?
    We’ve shared lots of meme posts,
    And had lots of fun.
    And told lots of people,
    That the world’s all gone wrong.
    But it’s all a big joke now,
    So let’s all laugh along.

    1. Zelensky was back in Washington this week, you’ll never guess why.

    2. This Christmas, remember just 50 billion a year could help support a puppet regime and dozens of war profiteers from the military-industrial complex.

    3. On the plus side, he’s so easy to shop for.

    4. Not to mention, he’s the hottest-selling toy this season, (with a lego mini-figure who’s actually life-size).

    5. Life comes at you pretty fast.

    6. Yeah, there’s a lot of them going around.

    7. One of the big mysteries of life.

    8. “Imagine how much worse it could have been without these seatbelts.”

    9. Still, it’s much preferable to the alternative…

    10. Really, the price tags should be different colours.

    11. “Your stair lift is late? Huh, maybe you should kill yourself“.

    12. Like those feminist t-shirts made by women earning 1 dollar an hour.

    13. Maybe it would help normies if they thought of homeschooling as a vaccine against state indoctrination.

    14. It’s that time of year again.

    15. Here at OffG memes, we like to help our readers save money.

    16. If you think that’s disappointing, wait ’til you try their cotton candy and peppermints.

    17. “It’s the ciiirrr-cle of liiiife”

    18. A remake for the the covid age.

    19.This movie is 30 years old. I don’t know how to feel about that (but yes, that always bothered me a lot too).

    20. …and speaking of old things that are kinda tragic.

    21. Nearly done. One last classic movie to ruin.

    22. But don’t worry, there’s hope for the future.

    Have a very Merry Christmas everyone

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 13:00

  • Department Of Homeland Security Issues Christmas Warning To Illegal Immigrants
    Department Of Homeland Security Issues Christmas Warning To Illegal Immigrants

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

    The Department of Homeland Security called on would-be illegal immigrants to not cross into the United States this weekend due to the Arctic-cold temperatures across the country.

    “As temperatures remain dangerously low all along the border, no one should put their lives in the hands of smugglers, or risk life and limb attempting to cross only to be returned,” DHS said in a statement on Saturday.

    A major winter storm and cold front descended across the United States late last week, breaking all-time cold temperature records in many cities. Reports indicated that at least 17 people died as of Saturday evening.

    Undue Strain

    At the same time, hundreds of thousands of people were left without power across several states. That’s in part due to wind but also due to what utility companies say is undue strain on the power grid due to the freezing temperatures.

    Many electric companies on Sunday continued to ask customers to conserve energy by not running large appliances and turning off unneeded lights. Duke Energy this weekend told customers it had ended the 15-to-30-minute rolling blackouts across North and South Carolina that it had initiated earlier in the day until additional electricity was available.

    More than 2,700 U.S. flights were canceled on Saturday, with total delays tallying more than 6,400, according to flight-tracking service FlightAware. More than 5,000 flights were canceled on Friday, FlightAware said.

    An American Airlines plane is de-iced as high winds whip around 7.5 inches of new snow at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport on Dec. 22, 2022. (David Joles/Star Tribune via AP)

    The severe weather prompted authorities across the country to open warming centers in libraries and police stations while scrambling to expand temporary shelter for the homeless. The challenge was compounded by an influx of illegal immigrants crossing the U.S. southern border by the thousands in recent weeks.

    The National Weather Service said its map of existing or impending meteorological hazards “depicts one of the greatest extents of winter weather warnings and advisories ever.”

    Title 42

    DHS also said that illegal immigrants “attempting to enter without authorization are being expelled, as required by court order under the Title 42 public health authority,” referring to the health-related order that was issued under the Trump administration in early 2020.

    “Regardless of nationality, anyone attempting to enter without authorization is subject to expulsion under Title 42,” said DHS’s statement. “Those who cannot be expelled pursuant to Title 42 may be placed in expedited removal and anyone ordered removed subject to a bar on entry for 5 years under Title 8. Venezuelans attempting to enter the United States between ports of entry also continue to be returned to Mexico, and will be barred from the Venezuela Migration Enforcement Process announced in October.”

    The Supreme Court placed a hold on ending the rule, although lawyers for the Biden administration urged the court to allow it to end. The White House called on the high court to reject an emergency bid by a group of GOP-led states that sought to allow Title 42 to remain while legal challenges continue.

    Last week, Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar wrote that it would be unusual for the court to allow those states to step in but wrote the administration “recognizes that the end of the Title 42 orders will likely lead to disruption and a temporary increase in unlawful border crossings.”

    “The government in no way seeks to minimize the seriousness of that problem. But the solution to that immigration problem cannot be to extend indefinitely a public-health measure that all now acknowledge has outlived its public-health justification,” she wrote.

    Before the Supreme Court’s ruling, the Democrat-run city of El Paso, Texas, issued an emergency due to a surge of people illegally crossing the border. On Saturday, the city extended the emergency—which takes illegal aliens off the streets and puts them into designated shelters—during a special City Council meeting, local media reported.

    Around the same time, New York City Mayor Eric Adams—whose city has seen an influx of illegal immigrants in recent months—warned that Title 42’s end would force the city to cut some services.

    “Please be advised that due to the lifting of Title 42 later this week, the City is expecting a higher amount of asylum seeker buses beginning today with 2 buses today and 10–15 more expected in the next two days,” Adams, a Democrat, said earlier this month in a statement.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 12:15

  • Your Government Hates You
    Your Government Hates You

    Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

    “Fate is nothing but the deeds committed in a prior state of existence.”

     – Ralph Waldo Emerson

    Capital Consuming Gluttony

    Did you know that in fiscal year 2022, federal tax receipts as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) hit a near record high of 19.6 percent?

    According to the U.S. Treasury, in FY 2022, total federal tax receipts and additional federal government revenue topped $4.90 trillion.  Yet, over this time, Congress spent $6.27 trillion.  The difference, the 2022 deficit, was $1.37 trillion.

    The difference, of course, was made up with debt.  And year after year, decade after decade, these deficits have stacked up into a mega pile of debt.  Presently, the U.S. national debt is over $31.4 trillion.  As a reference point, in December 2000, the national debt was $5.6 trillion.

    In other words, over the last 22 years the U.S. national debt has increased 460 percent.  U.S. GDP over this same time, however, has increased just 157 percent, from about $10 trillion to 25.7 trillion.

    You’d think with all that cash coming in from near record tax receipts as a percent of GDP Washington could balance the budget.  Maybe it could even run a surplus and pay down some of the national debt.

    President Andrew Jackson, for example, paid off the entire national debt in 1835 after just six years in office.  He then took the federal government surplus and divided it among indebted states.

    Alas, that’s not how the U.S. government works in the 21st century, where near record tax receipts will never be enough.  Washington’s capital consuming gluttony is well beyond the reach of a human solution.  Nature will have to take its course.

    Skyrocketing Fiscal Year 2023 Deficit

    It doesn’t take big brains or a sharp intellect to understand that spending more than you make for decades on end is terrible way to build wealth.  Many great nations have tried it.  None have been able to sustain it, indefinitely.  They’ve all failed.  The U.S. is no different.

    We believe 2023 will further the divergence between the national debt and GDP.  Specifically, the national debt will continue to grow much faster than GDP.  In fact, it’s already happening.

    The first two months of FY 2023, which commenced in October, are off to a slow start.  Federal revenue rose just 1 percent.  At that rate, federal revenues would increase by 6 percent in FY 2023, as compared to a 21 percent increase in all of FY 2022.

    As noted by the Wall Street Journal, individual taxes rose 4 percent while corporate tax revenue fell 6 percent.  Other revenue, which includes Federal Reserve payments from interest on its bond holdings, dropped 21 percent.  These Fed payments will turn to deficits in 2023 as the central bank shrinks its bond portfolio.

    So, unless the federal government dramatically cuts its spending to be inline with slowing revenue the FY 2023 deficit will skyrocket.  Perhaps the debt market will apply some constraints…

    The federal government, after decades of mass money printing, now has rampant consumer price inflation to contend with.  For this reason, the Treasury can no longer count on the Fed to create credit out of thin air to buy Treasury notes.  To do so would be counter productive to the Fed’s inflation containment program.

    Now, for the first time since quantitative easing was hatched in late 2008, if Washington wants to borrow money to finance its ridiculous spending programs it will have to do so with loans from honest Treasury investors.  Some may find today’s yields worthy.  Others may not.

    Mayors for Guaranteed Income

    The point is the federal government will have to exclusively rely on a class of discerning lenders to finance its deficits for the first time since Lehman Brothers vanished from the face of the earth.  And while the federal government may have some unfamiliar constraints to deal with, the real pain will be felt by state and local governments.

    During the coronavirus fiasco many state and local governments took a ride on the federal government’s gravy train, which was powered by mega amounts of printing press money.  State and local politicians, who are generally much dumber than they look, took this one time, event driven largesse from Washington and used it to establish new, and everlasting structural spending programs.

    This week, for example, we discovered there are at least 82 municipalities across 29 states that are promoting guaranteed income programs.  And more than 70 of these municipalities have pilot programs created in the past year.  There’s even a coalition of over 100 mayors, aptly titled Mayors for Guaranteed Income, that are advocating for them.

    How do these forward-thinking mayors intend to pay for these guaranteed income programs?

    They intend to raid federal pandemic assistance money from a $350 billion fund for state and local governments within the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act, adopted in March 2021.  Remember where this money comes from; that is, it comes from you…the American taxpayer.

    Adding to the army of dependents reliant on government for their daily bread is beyond foolish.  People who receive ongoing handouts slip into apathy.  They become unwilling and unable to provide for themselves.  They become dependents for life.  And what happens when the guaranteed income can no longer be guaranteed?

    Without question, these guaranteed income programs are epic disasters in the making.

    Your Government Hates You

    Lastly, we’d be remiss if we did not mention the federal government’s bipartisan $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill that’s making its way through Congress at the time of this writing.  This 4,155-page whopper is a Christmas tree bill in the truest sense.  Special gifts to various interest groups are hung on every branch.

    But what’s actually in it?

    The headline accounts are vague.  There’s the amorphous $858 billion for defense.  There’s also the nebulous $772.5 billion for domestic priorities.  What could these be?

    If you’re unclear about just how absolutely screwed we all are, here we turn to the Heritage Foundation for lucidity:

    “[The Omnibus bill] contains billions in wasteful spending on ridiculous political pet projects, including the following:  

    • $1.2 million for “LGBTQIA+ Pride Centers” and another $1.2 million for “support services for DACA recipients” (aka helping illegal aliens with taxpayer funds) at San Diego Community College. 

    • $477,000 for the Equity Institute in Rhode Island to indoctrinate teachers with “antiracism virtual labs.” 

    • $1 million for Zora’s House in Ohio, a “coworking and community space” for “women and gender-expansive people of color.” 

    • $3 million for the American LGBTQ+ Museum in New York City. 

    • $3.6 million for a Michelle Obama Trail in Georgia. 

    • $750,000 for “LGBT and Gender Non-Conforming housing” in Albany, N.Y. 

    • $2 million for the “Great Blacks in Wax” museum in Baltimore. 

    • $856,000 for an “LGBT Center” in New York. 

    • $750,000 for the “TransLatin@ Coalition” to provide “workforce development programs and supportive services for Transgender and Gender nonconforming and Intersex (TGI) immigrant women in Los Angeles.”

    This, my friends, is your tax dollars at work.  This is also an ear-piercing siren signaling the end is nigh.

    The fact of the matter is that if you work hard, pay your own way, believe in free speech and traditional values, and fear God, your government – the dirty cadre of elites and insiders – hates you. 

    There’s no other way to explain it.

    Merry Christmas!

    *  *  *

    If you don’t own gold by now, you really have no excuse.  If you do own gold and are looking for other simple, practical steps to protect your wealth and financial privacy I encourage you to consider those documented in the Financial First Aid Kit.  If you’d like to find out more about this important and unique publication, and how to acquire a copy, stop by here today!

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/25/2022 – 11:30

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Dec 25

Today’s News 25th December 2022

  • The War On Christmas Is A War On America
    The War On Christmas Is A War On America

    Authored by Don Feeder via WashingtonTimes.com,

    Whatever unites us, the left is against…

    The left hates Christmas because it hates all expressions of faith in our society. On a deeper level, however, the War on Christmas is a war on America.

    In many ways, Christmas is as much an American holiday as a Christian holiday. (No trees or tinsel in Bethlehem.) Today, only 63% of Americans call themselves Christians, while 93% celebrate Christmas. In other words, almost a third of those who celebrate Christmas are non-Christians.

    More than Thanksgiving, Memorial Day or the Fourth of July, Christmas unites us as a people.

    Anything that brings Americans together, the left fears — like the flag, the national anthem and statues of our heroes. 

    This is reflected in the push to get Christmas trees out of public parks and libraries (which have no problem celebrating Pride Month and having “drag queen story hour”) and the holy war against holiday decorations in schools and other public places. Sales staff risk life and limb by wishing customers a “merry Christmas.”

    The mainstream media tries to gaslight us by telling us the War on Christmas was invented by conservative groups to raise money and mobilize the base. 

    You really can’t make this stuff up.

    The King County, Washington, Human Rights Commission has banned Christmas and Hanukkah decorations from the workplaces of county employees — including virtual workplaces. Even holiday-themed clothing is verboten.

    “Some employees may not share your religion, practice any religion, or share your enthusiasm for holiday decorations,” a memo from the commission explains.

    This exquisite sensitivity applies only to religious holidays. Everyone must take part in Pride Month and do homage to Black Lives Matter.

    On the other side of the continent, the War on Christmas has taken a nasty turn.

    The Needham, Massachusetts, Public Library decided it would break 28 years of tradition by not displaying a Christmas tree this year, because unnamed people said that last year, the evergreen made them “feel uncomfortable.” What, they thought the Tannenbaum would assault them, or try to convert them to Christianity?

    After a public outcry, the library relented. The reversal, in turn, set off a member of the town’s Human Rights Commission (HRCs are general headquarters for secularist witch hunts), who went full Grinch, calling the lady who championed the tree’s return a “selfish f—-ing b——” and “disgusting trash” who had somehow endangered the lives of municipal workers because “that’s what your magic sky daddy wants.” The billet-doux closed with the author wishing “great suffering” on the tree’s proponents. She has since resigned from her position.

    If the right invented the War on Christmas, why are there so many enemies of Yuletide cheer, who range from the mildly obnoxious to the downright hysterical?

    In part, it’s a sense of entitlement. Liberals believe they have a right not to be confronted with signs of a holiday they don’t celebrate. But it goes far beyond that to a matter of national identity. 

    The left is for everything that divides us — multiculturalism, critical race theory, sexual indoctrination in the schools and unisex bathrooms — and against everything that unites us. Nothing brings Americans together like Christmas — and I say that as a non-Christian.

    For most Americans, Christmas brings back happy childhood memories — fluffy snowflakes, colored lights, tinsel, mounds of presents, festively decorated trees and stories about flying sleighs and a jolly old gent who resembles your favorite uncle.

    Christmas seems to be a uniquely American holiday — Irving Berlin’s “White Christmas,” “I’ll Be Home for Christmas,” “Miracle on 34th Street,” “Yes, Virginia, There Is a Santa Claus,” and memories of a time before homeless encampments, illegal aliens streaming across the border, fentanyl and men in ballgowns demanding their inalienable right to invade ladies’ shower and changing rooms. Christmas reminds us of a time when America was sane — the normalcy for which many long.

    “Merry Christmas” is an expression of goodwill and hope for the future. Optimism is another American virtue.

    The War on Christmas isn’t just another dimension of the culture war, but psych warfare against Americanism. The left isn’t just gunning for Christmas trees, glad tidings and a Jolly Old Elf with a sack full of presents, but the American ideal, which we must fight to preserve.

    Like Natalie Wood’s character in “Miracle on 34th Street,” we must believe and keep right on believing — that there’s a mystical connection between Christmas and America.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 23:20

  • Visualizing How Snowflakes Are Formed
    Visualizing How Snowflakes Are Formed

    No, not that type of snowflake…

    If you look at snow up close, you will probably notice that it is made up of thousands of tiny flakes with beautifully complex designs.

    These snowflakes are actually ice crystals. They form in our atmosphere, high in the clouds, and transform along their journey to Earth thanks to different factors and forces.

    In the infographic below, Visual Capitalist’s Mark Belan looks at how snowflakes are formed, and what atmospheric conditions contribute to the beautiful intricacies we’ve come to know them for.

    How to Build a Snowflake

    The designs of snowflakes are actually products of a crystallization process that is controlled by the atmosphere.

    Water vapor in the atmosphere latches onto a free-floating speck of pollen or dust and acts as a nucleator. This means that it can begin to add on (ie. nucleate) more water molecules and grow in size. When this happens at cold temperatures, water also freezes and crystallizes.

    Despite the many unique styles of snowflakes, they all crystallize in the exact same shape—a hexagon. The reason for this has to do with how water behaves at the chemical level. At room temperature, water molecules flow randomly around each other, forming and breaking bonds endlessly.

    When temperatures cool, however, they begin to lose kinetic energy and form more stable bonds. By 0°C, they reorient themselves into an energetically-efficient position, which happens to be a rigid, hexagonal configuration. This is frozen water, or ice.

    All snowflakes nucleate and crystallize this way. As more water molecules nucleate to the infant snow crystal, they crystallize long arms and branching tendrils, forming unique, artistic designs.

    How these designs materialize is simply a matter of water availability and temperature, a relationship best described in the Nakaya Diagram of Snowflakes.

    The Nakaya Diagram of Snowflakes

    In the 1930s, Japanese physicist Ukichiro Nakaya created the first artificial snowflakes and studied their growth as an analog for natural snow crystal formation. The Snow Crystal Morphology Diagram, or the Nakaya Diagram, is his handy chart that illustrates how snowflakes are formed.

    The diagram illustrates the kinds of snowflakes that form via atmospheric temperature and humidity during a snow crystal’s fall to the ground.

    Snowflake size and complexity depend on the humidity of the atmosphere. More water means larger, more intricate snowflakes.

    Surprisingly, snowflakes cycle between two classes of growth (plates vs. columns) as temperatures decrease.

    Close to its 100-year anniversary, this detail of the Nakaya diagram still puzzles researchers today. Many continue to theorize and demonstrate how this phenomenon may be possible.

    Start the Same, Finish Different

    You might be wondering how it is possible that no two snowflakes are identical if they all have a hexagonal inception and can form only columns or plates.

    The answer lies in the dynamic nature of the atmosphere.

    The atmosphere is constantly changing. As each second goes by, temperature, humidity, wind direction, and a number of other factors bombard a snow crystal as it falls to the ground.

    Snow crystals are sensitive to the tiniest of these changes. Water vapor that is crystallizing responds to different exposures which ultimately make new patterns.

    Since no two snowflakes travel in the exact same path at the exact same time, no two snowflakes will look the same. Same start, different endings.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 22:45

  • You’d Better Watch Out: The Surveillance State Is Making a List, And You’re On It
    You’d Better Watch Out: The Surveillance State Is Making a List, And You’re On It

    Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via rutherford.org,

    “He sees you when you’re sleeping
    He knows when you’re awake
    He knows when you’ve been bad or good
    So be good for goodness’ sake!”
    —“Santa Claus Is Coming to Town”

    You’d better watch out—you’d better not pout—you’d better not cry—‘cos I’m telling you why: this Christmas, it’s the Surveillance State that’s making a list and checking it twice, and it won’t matter whether you’ve been bad or good.

    You’ll be on this list whether you like it or not.

    Mass surveillance is the Deep State’s version of a “gift” that keeps on giving…back to the Deep State.

    Geofencing dragnets. Fusion centers. Smart devices. Behavioral threat assessments. Terror watch lists. Facial recognition. Snitch tip lines. Biometric scanners. Pre-crime. DNA databases. Data mining. Precognitive technology. Contact tracing apps.

    What these add up to is a world in which, on any given day, the average person is now monitored, surveilled, spied on and tracked in more than 20 different ways by both government and corporate eyes and ears.

    Big Tech wedded to Big Government has become Big Brother.

    Every second of every day, the American people are being spied on by a vast network of digital Peeping Toms, electronic eavesdroppers and robotic snoops.

    This creepy new era of government/corporate spying—in which we’re being listened to, watched, tracked, followed, mapped, bought, sold and targeted—has been made possible by a global army of techno-tyrants, fusion centers and Peeping Toms.

    Consider just a small sampling of the tools being used to track our movements, monitor our spending, and sniff out all the ways in which our thoughts, actions and social circles might land us on the government’s naughty list, whether or not you’ve done anything wrong.

    Tracking you based on your phone and movements: Cell phones have become de facto snitches, offering up a steady stream of digital location data on users’ movements and travels. For instance, the FBI was able to use geofence data to identify more than 5,000 mobile devices (and their owners) in a 4-acre area around the Capitol on January 6. This latest surveillance tactic could land you in jail for being in the “wrong place and time.” Police are also using cell-site simulators to carry out mass surveillance of protests without the need for a warrant. Moreover, federal agents can now employ a number of hacking methods in order to gain access to your computer activities and “see” whatever you’re seeing on your monitor. Malicious hacking software can also be used to remotely activate cameras and microphones, offering another means of glimpsing into the personal business of a target.

    Tracking you based on your DNA. DNA technology in the hands of government officials completes our transition to a Surveillance State. If you have the misfortune to leave your DNA traces anywhere a crime has been committed, you’ve already got a file somewhere in some state or federal database—albeit it may be a file without a name. By accessing your DNA, the government will soon know everything else about you that they don’t already know: your family chart, your ancestry, what you look like, your health history, your inclination to follow orders or chart your own course, etc. After all, a DNA print reveals everything about “who we are, where we come from, and who we will be.” It can also be used to predict the physical appearance of potential suspects. It’s only a matter of time before the police state’s pursuit of criminals expands into genetic profiling and a preemptive hunt for criminals of the future.

    Tracking you based on your face: Facial recognition software aims to create a society in which every individual who steps out into public is tracked and recorded as they go about their daily business. Coupled with surveillance cameras that blanket the country, facial recognition technology allows the government and its corporate partners to identify and track someone’s movements in real-time. One particularly controversial software program created by Clearview AI has been used by police, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security to collect photos on social media sites for inclusion in a massive facial recognition database. Similarly, biometric software, which relies on one’s unique identifiers (fingerprints, irises, voice prints), is becoming the standard for navigating security lines, as well as bypassing digital locks and gaining access to phones, computers, office buildings, etc. In fact, greater numbers of travelers are opting into programs that rely on their biometrics in order to avoid long waits at airport security. Scientists are also developing lasers that can identify and surveil individuals based on their heartbeats, scent and microbiome.

    Tracking you based on your behavior: Rapid advances in behavioral surveillance are not only making it possible for individuals to be monitored and tracked based on their patterns of movement or behavior, including gait recognition (the way one walks), but have given rise to whole industries that revolve around predicting one’s behavior based on data and surveillance patterns and are also shaping the behaviors of whole populations. One smart “anti-riot” surveillance system purports to predict mass riots and unauthorized public events by using artificial intelligence to analyze social media, news sources, surveillance video feeds and public transportation data.

    Tracking you based on your spending and consumer activities: With every smartphone we buy, every GPS device we install, every Twitter, Facebook, and Google account we open, every frequent buyer card we use for purchases—whether at the grocer’s, the yogurt shop, the airlines or the department store—and every credit and debit card we use to pay for our transactions, we’re helping Corporate America build a dossier for its government counterparts on who we know, what we think, how we spend our money, and how we spend our time. Consumer surveillance, by which your activities and data in the physical and online realms are tracked and shared with advertisers, has become big business, a $300 billion industry that routinely harvests your data for profit. Corporations such as Target have not only been tracking and assessing the behavior of their customers, particularly their purchasing patterns, for years, but the retailer has also funded major surveillance in cities across the country and developed behavioral surveillance algorithms that can determine whether someone’s mannerisms might fit the profile of a thief.

    Tracking you based on your public activities: Private corporations in conjunction with police agencies throughout the country have created a web of surveillance that encompasses all major cities in order to monitor large groups of people seamlessly, as in the case of protests and rallies. They are also engaging in extensive online surveillance, looking for any hints of “large public events, social unrest, gang communications, and criminally predicated individuals.” Defense contractors have been at the forefront of this lucrative market. Fusion centers, $330 million-a-year, information-sharing hubs for federal, state and law enforcement agencies, monitor and report such “suspicious” behavior as people buying pallets of bottled water, photographing government buildings, and applying for a pilot’s license as “suspicious activity.”

    Tracking you based on your social media activities: Every move you make, especially on social media, is monitored, mined for data, crunched, and tabulated in order to form a picture of who you are, what makes you tick, and how best to control you when and if it becomes necessary to bring you in line. As The Intercept reported, the FBI, CIA, NSA and other government agencies are increasingly investing in and relying on corporate surveillance technologies that can mine constitutionally protected speech on social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and Instagram in order to identify potential extremists and predict who might engage in future acts of anti-government behavior. This obsession with social media as a form of surveillance will have some frightening consequences in coming years. As Helen A.S. Popkin, writing for NBC News, observed, “We may very well face a future where algorithms bust people en masse for referencing illegal ‘Game of Thrones’ downloads… the new software has the potential to roll, Terminator-style, targeting every social media user with a shameful confession or questionable sense of humor.”

    Tracking you based on your social network: Not content to merely spy on individuals through their online activity, government agencies are now using surveillance technology to track one’s social network, the people you might connect with by phone, text message, email or through social message, in order to ferret out possible criminals. An FBI document obtained by Rolling Stone speaks to the ease with which agents are able to access address book data from Facebook’s WhatsApp and Apple’s iMessage services from the accounts of targeted individuals and individuals not under investigation who might have a targeted individual within their network. What this creates is a “guilt by association” society in which we are all as guilty as the most culpable person in our address book.

    Tracking you based on your car: License plate readers are mass surveillance tools that can photograph over 1,800 license tag numbers per minute, take a picture of every passing license tag number and store the tag number and the date, time, and location of the picture in a searchable database, then share the data with law enforcement, fusion centers and private companies to track the movements of persons in their cars. With tens of thousands of these license plate readers now in operation throughout the country, affixed to overpasses, cop cars and throughout business sectors and residential neighborhoods, it allows police to track vehicles and run the plates through law enforcement databases for abducted children, stolen cars, missing people and wanted fugitives. Of course, the technology is not infallible: there have been numerous incidents in which police have mistakenly relied on license plate data to capture out suspects only to end up detaining innocent people at gunpoint.

    Tracking you based on your mail: Just about every branch of the government—from the Postal Service to the Treasury Department and every agency in between—now has its own surveillance sector, authorized to spy on the American people. For instance, the U.S. Postal Service, which has been photographing the exterior of every piece of paper mail for the past 20 years, is also spying on Americans’ texts, emails and social media posts. Headed up by the Postal Service’s law enforcement division, the Internet Covert Operations Program (iCOP) is reportedly using facial recognition technology, combined with fake online identities, to ferret out potential troublemakers with “inflammatory” posts. The agency claims the online surveillance, which falls outside its conventional job scope of processing and delivering paper mail, is necessary to help postal workers avoid “potentially volatile situations.”

    Now the government wants us to believe that we have nothing to fear from these mass spying programs as long as we’ve done nothing wrong.

    Don’t believe it.

    The government’s definition of a “bad” guy is extraordinarily broad, and it results in the warrantless surveillance of innocent, law-abiding Americans on a staggering scale.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, surveillance, digital stalking and the data mining of the American people—weapons of compliance and control in the government’s hands—haven’t made America any safer. And they certainly aren’t helping to preserve our freedoms.

    Indeed, America will never be safe as long as the U.S. government is allowed to shred the Constitution.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 22:10

  • Where Price Hikes Are Causing More Stress This Christmas
    Where Price Hikes Are Causing More Stress This Christmas

    For many, this Christmas will be marked not only by a tentative return to normality as covid-related restrictions have eased up around the world, but also by the general increase in prices, which will undoubtedly affect purchases and celebrations this year.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to an Ipsos study carried out in 12 countries, an average of 85 percent of the surveyed respondents said that they feel excited about the end of year celebrations, with a third saying that they are even more excited than last year.

    But at the same time, that enthusiasm is running counter to the levels of stress respondents feel in light of the current levels of inflation. On average, nearly nine in ten respondents said they feel stressed about the impact of rising prices, and 55 percent are more stressed than last year.

    As Statista’s chart below shows, stress is most widespread in Romania, where three quarters (74 percent) of the country’s respondents said that thanks to price increases they feel more stressed this year about the end-of-year and Christmas celebrations than in 2021.

    Infographic: Where Price Hikes Are Causing More Stress This Christmas | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Although the share of people saying they are more stressed this year is still high in the United States, it is somewhat lower at 50 percent, while Brazil has the lowest among the nations analyzed, at 28 percent.

    Financial worries will undoubtedly impact what Christmas will look like for many this year, as, on average globally, half of those surveyed expect rising costs to have a significant bearing on their holiday shopping and 40 percent say the same for their celebrations.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 21:35

  • Ukrainian Narrative Continues To Morph Ugly
    Ukrainian Narrative Continues To Morph Ugly

    Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

    If the “Ukrainian narrative” was not ugly enough, it continues to work its way farther to the dark-side. It is debatable how long the American people will buy the line that funding the war in Ukraine will result in a good outcome. Someday, what is happening in Ukraine may be looked back upon as a horrible blunder, lie, and misstep largely orchestrated by America and the “Obama/Biden political machine.”

    Sadly, US senator Bernie Sanders on Tuesday agreed, due to fairly intense pressure from the White House, to withdraw the so-called ‘Yemen War Powers’ resolution from a vote in the Senate. The crucial bill would have restricted US military involvement in war-torn Yemen and reasserted Congress’ war-making authority. As a footnote, the word was put out that President Joe Biden would most likely veto the bill passed if it passed. White House officials said the bill “could complicate the effort to back Ukraine in its war against Russia.” 

    Recently, in a phone call, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “thanked” President Joe Biden for the “unprecedented defense and financial assistance that the U.S. provides to Ukraine.” that of course did not stop him from asking for billions more. So far the total that has been either proposed, pledged, or enacted exceeds a mind-boggling $100 billion. With every billion dollars representing roughly three dollars for every man woman and child in America, this means it has already cost each of us around 300 dollars. When you consider how many people, such as children and those barely getting by don’t share in this burden, the amount placed upon each taxpayer soars. Much of this money has been doled out with little oversight.

    It is important to remember that under Biden’s tutelage this “conflict” has become not so much about defending Ukraine but ending Putin and Russia. It is not about the people of Ukraine but much more. The Ukrainian people and much of Europe have become mere pawns in a game. Unfortunately for the Biden camp, for all the money being poured into this “theater” it would be naive to think Putin will not achieve his goals or come out of this conflict the victor. 

    Even as this is being written, Ukraine is bracing for yet more Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure. Ukraine has accused Moscow of intentionally unleashing additional suffering on the population headed into Christmas. Its Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said, “Russian terrorists will do everything to leave Ukrainians without electricity for the New Year.” Currently, around 80% of the Kiev area appears to be without electricity for the second day in a row.

    The only thing growing as fast as the cost of Biden’s proxy war is the ego of Ukraine’s President Zelensky. This has become more apparent by the day as the attention-seeking comedian media star turned politician pushes his way onto the center of the world stage. Zelensky is constantly appearing at major public events to make appeals for aid. These include the Grammys and Cannes Film Festival. This is when he’s not busy addressing the G7, the European Parliament, or an UN-sponsored event.  

    Pro-war advocates even arranged for Zelensky to give a 30-minute long speech before Congress, foreign leaders seldom get this opportunity. During the speech, he was frequently interrupted by spontaneous standing rounds of applause from US lawmakers as he vowed: “absolute victory“ over Russia. With events like this taking place, it is little wonder Time magazine recently named Zelensky and The Spirit Of Ukraine as person of the year. There are, however, signs global audiences are tired of hearing Ukraine’s President Zelensky ask for more money. His message is steeped in propaganda. This could be the chief reason the formal request for Zelensky to talk about “world peace” before the kickoff to the World Cup final, was recently denied. 

    The Biden administration along with Ukrainian officials have been shocking the world with claims of how well things are going on the battlefield.” This has gone to the point where NBC News reports that the White House now calculates that the Ukrainian armed forces are capable of retaking the Crimean Peninsula. Administration officials are using this as a reason Congress still needs to fund Ukraine. Those promoting and encouraging such an offensive move ignore the danger it may cross Moscow’s “red lines” and increase the possibility of nuclear weapons being used.

    Chart Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies

    Still, with many Americans distracted by the holidays, few are paying attention to just how much money we are spending supporting Ukraine. The visual aid above helps clarify the distinction between what has been proposed and enacted. The additional “proposed” billions that are shown in the above chart have at this point been approved with the recent passage of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023. Approving the current request would bring the total amount approved to $104 billion in less than a year. 

    To the chagrin of many Americans, the war in Ukraine continues to grind on. The ramifications of the Biden proxy war extend far past spending. It includes using presidential draw-down authority to pull hundreds of millions in weapons and anti-air missile systems from American stockpiles. Biden’s newly announced pledge to send Patriot missiles to Ukraine means we may be short weapons if a problem comes up somewhere else.

    This is why NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg commenting on the state of Russia-West relations said “Even if the fighting ends, we will not return to some kind of normal, friendly, relationship with Russia. Trust has been destroyed.” He claimed that NATO sought to build positive relations with Russia immediately after the Cold War – despite the fact it expanded to Russia’s doorstep soon after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    For now, the idea this conflict will rapidly end has been placed on the back burner. This could be because many people are benefiting from the spending. To the warmongers, this is because we have not done enough. Those of us advocating the antiwar position view this as an unnecessary proxy war and that we have no business there. This extends to the position we should do everything we can to bring hostilities to an end.

    Some of us take the position that this was all set in motion by the U.S. choreographed coup in Kiev eight years ago under the Obama Administration. It would be hard to overstate the significance those events played in creating the situation currently before us. Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger is one of those calling for urgently finding a path of negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine. He warns the entire world is in danger as nuclear-armed superpowers inch closer to a disastrous confrontation.

    A huge factor in keeping truthful information about what is happening is held hostage by propaganda. The situation on the ground in Ukraine may be far different than we in America are being led to believe. Recently the Russians have altered their strategy in reaction to reality but not because they are in dire straits. An argument can be made that Russia’s pullback from some Ukrainian territory was strategic and that by pulling back they have sucked the Ukrainian troops into a meat grinder where they have suffered massive casualties.

    Michael Vlahos and Douglas Magcregor got together recently in the library of the Army-Navy Club, Washington, D.C., to reflect on the war in Ukraine; 

    It appears Putin has been to the front to confirm that Russian troops are prepared for a winter offensive. This is the type of warfare in which Russia excels. When it comes to fighting on the ground in cold weather, it has been said that Russia invented winter. It certainly does not look like a pleasant winter for the people of Ukraine, and for that, they can thank Biden.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 21:00

  • Utilities Impose Rolling Blackouts As US Power Grid In Emergency Amid Cold Blast
    Utilities Impose Rolling Blackouts As US Power Grid In Emergency Amid Cold Blast

    Update (2030ET): 

    Con Edison is asking its 1.1 million natural gas, 3.5 million electric, and steam customers in the New York City Metropolitan region to conserve energy due to frigid weather. 

    “Conserving energy as much as possible now will help ensure adequate natural gas supplies for the rest of the weekend,” Con Edison said.

    “Owners of natural gas pipelines have reported that equipment problems caused by the cold weather and the heavy demand for natural gas are challenging their ability to provide adequate amounts of gas throughout the Northeast,” the utility company continued. 

    Add Con Edison to the growing list of utilities and grid operators that warned about grid stress issues due to surging heating demand. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Read below for where rolling blackouts have been reported. 

    *  *  * 

    Update (1724ET):

    As night settles and temperatures plunge again, power grids in the country’s eastern half are under severe stress. Review the latest updates for reports of widespread rolling blackouts. 

    Another utility has just warned about grid chaos. Dominion Energy has asked customers in Virginia and North Carolina to conserve power. The utility said high electricity demand would continue for days.  

    *  *  * 

    Update (1720ET): 

    ISO New England warned it has “insufficient reserve supplies” and asked members to “voluntarily curtail power” amid grid strain. 

    According to Bloomberg, the grid operator declared an energy emergency level 1 and requested utilities to reduce electricity consumption. 

    “We have declared a power caution for the region, and is calling upon reserve resources due to the unexpected loss of generation and imports,” spokesman Matthew Kakley said in an emailed statement. 

    Power demand soars above forecast, and supplies are tight. Power prices average more than $2,000 per megawatt hour across the grid. 

    About 70% of the power generation mix is oil, nuclear, and natural gas, while unreliable renewables barely account for 6%.

    ISO New England has yet to implement rolling blackouts. We note below rolling blackouts have been used by utilities across parts of the Southeast US.

    *  *  * 

    Update (1445ET):

    More power disruption could be seen tonight as temperatures are expected to drop again as heating demand soars.

    *  *  * 

    Update (1243ET):

    Add Georgia to the growing list of states experiencing rolling power blackouts. 

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    White House remains silent as Americans are plunged into power blackouts amid grid instabilities on Christmas Eve. Biden’s social media team continues to pump tweets about how everything is wonderful. 

    *  *  * 

    Update (1200ET):

    Utilities have issued rolling power blackouts across North Carolina and Tennessee this morning. 

    News just hit Bloomberg that Tennessee Titans delayed the home game against Houston Texans over power concerns. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Extreme cold temperatures are pressuring power grids in the eastern half of the US. Rolling blackouts have affected many Americans, some of which have taken to Twitter to complain: 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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    This is unacceptable. 

    *  *  * 

    Update (1115ET):

    PJM Interconnection’s power generation mix this morning is primarily coal, natural gas, nuclear, and crude oil. So much for unreliable renewables helping out when the regional grid that supplies power to 65 million Americans in 13 states and the District of Columbia is in an emergency. 

    It’s time for Americans to realize renewables are unreliable — also, decommissioning fossil fuel power generation in the name of ‘climate change’ is idiotic at this point. 

    *  *  * 

    The powerful winter storm that battered a large swath of the eastern half of the US has left behind an Arctic chill Saturday morning. A regional power grid with 65 million customers in 13 states and the District of Columbia has declared a rare emergency, over a million people have no power, air travel remains disrupted, and reports of highway accidents are some of the most trending topics this morning. 

    Let’s begin with PJM Interconnection, a regional power grid that stretches from Illinois to New Jersey, which declared a Stage 2 emergency late Friday and asked customers to conserve electricity due to the rising risk of grid instability. 

    “PJM is asking consumers to reduce their use of electricity, if health permits, between the hours of 4 a.m. on December 24, 2022, and 10 a.m. on December 25, 2022,” PJM wrote in a press release. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    PJM’s request for customers to reduce power comes as the grid manager is trying to prevent a Stage 3 emergency, which would result in rolling blackouts across the 13 states and the District of Columbia. 

    “Demand soared more than 9 gigawatts above forecasts Friday evening — much faster and higher than anticipated. That’s the equivalent of about 9 million homes just popping up on the grid on a typical day,” Bloomberg said. 

    PJM spokeswoman Susan Buehler told Bloomberg that Stage 2 emergency would “certainly be enough” to avert blackouts across the regional grid because the Arctic blast is only temporary. 

    In the Carolinas, Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress, and several other utilities, have asked customers to conserve power due to energy shortfalls. 

    Duke wrote in a statement Saturday morning it has “implemented load shedding steps that include interruptions in service.” This means power is being curtailed for some customers to protect the grid from collapse. 

    With power grids in an emergency across the eastern half of the US, there are also a million customers without power — most outages are in North Carolina, Tennessee, and Maine. 

    Bloomberg said 200 million Americans — around 60% of the country — are under winter weather alerts this morning. 

    The Ambient Weather network of weather stations across the US shows much of the country is below freezing this morning. 

    And for the third day, travel remains disrupted. FlightAware showed over 1,600 flights within, into, or out of the US were canceled. Another 1,700 were delayed. Most of the disruptions were at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Newark Liberty International Airport, O’Hare International Airport, and John F. Kennedy International Airport.

    And it wasn’t just air travel that experienced troubles. As millions of Americans hit the highways to see loved ones, there were numerous reports of massive pileup crashes. One of the most spoken about this morning is the 46-car pileup on the Ohio Turnpike.  

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    The good news is the unbearable cold blast will begin to dissipate next week. Average temperatures across the Lower 48 will jump from 24 degrees Fahrenheit to over 50 degrees by January 1. 

    Hoping for a White Christmas? 

    There’s not one peep from climate alarmists about the cold blast after they spewed nonsense this past summer about the world imminently burning. ‘Trust the science,’ they say… 

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    Guess what’s trending on Twitter this morning. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 20:30

  • The Most Desired Christmas Gifts In The US
    The Most Desired Christmas Gifts In The US

    While it may not seem like the most romantic option, the useful gift of money is the most desired Christmas present in the United States this year.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to the latest data from Statista’s Global Consumer Survey (Christmas and Holiday Season: U.S.), when asked which gifts U.S. adults would personally most like to receive this year, 36 percent of men and 46 percent of women said cash or bank transfers. For both groups, vouchers came in second position, followed by clothing, textiles or shoes in third. Respondents could choose multiple options in the poll.

    Infographic: The Most Desired Christmas Gifts in The U.S. | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    When looking at a breakdown of the data for males and females, however, while there is a fair bit of overlap, some slight differences do emerge.

    As Statista’s table above shows, smartphones, tablets and accessories were a fairly popular choice for both men and women, being selected by 22 percent and 23 percent of the groups, respectively.

    Women showed slightly more interest in travel-related gifts (19 percent versus men at 14 percent) as well as event tickets (19 percent versus men at 12 percent). Out of the polled options, ‘decoration articles’ were among the lowest scoring gifts, only desired by 7 percent of female respondents and 6 percent of men.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 20:25

  • Traitors!
    Traitors!

    Authored by Julie Kelly via American Greatness,

    A picture, they say, is worth a thousand words. But there are only a few profane words to describe the obscene scene as the two women closest in line for the presidency hoisted the Ukrainian flag from the dias of the House of Representatives while swooning over Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Congress cheered on December 21. (This appears to be the first time in history the flag of another nation essentially flew inside the U.S. Capitol building.) 

    “They asked me to bring this flag to you, to the U.S. Congress, to members of the House of Representatives and senators whose decisions can save millions of people,” Zelenskyy said before handing the flag to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Vice President Kamala Harris.

    “This flag is a symbol of our victory in this war.”

    But even more telling—sickening?—was the image in the same photo of a House staffer wearing a black face mask standing silently, eyes cast downward, behind a tri-folded American flag in a shadow box as the celebration ensued. The unintentional contrast said it all. Our once-thriving and free country is slowly dying at the hands of frauds, crooks, and cowards—and they’re not even trying to hide it from us. They are flaunting it. After two decades of gradually amassing power and control under the ruse of national security, the ruling class is exercising that power in a ruthless way.

    Zelenskyy’s address to a joint session of Congress—his second this year—symbolizes how the regime is actively working against the interests of the American people. While Americans struggle to pay for gas, Zelenskyy traveled to Washington in a U.S. Air Force plane accompanied by an F-15 fighter jet. Government officials literally rolled out the red carpet for Zelenskyy when he landed before he enjoyed a full-blown motorcade to the White House.

    As Zelenskyy entered the House chambers Wednesday night, his lapdog benefactors in Congress rose to their feet, wildly applauding and reaching out to touch him, mouths agape as if a rock star was in their presence. But real groupies have more dignity. It was a disgusting display all around; Zelenskyy, always in character, couldn’t even manage to wear a proper suit.

    His attire, of course, didn’t matter as long as his costume had lots of pockets. Zelenskyy is set to receive $47 billion more in U.S. tax dollars when those same slobbering lawmakers pass a $1.7 trillion government spending bill this month—bringing Zelenskyy’s total grab to $100 billion and counting.

    The omnibus package itself is one insult after another to the American people. As Rep. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) detailed in a December 20 tweet thread, generous funding to secure the borders of other countries is included in the bill with little more than crumbs to protect our southern border, now dangerously wide open to human smugglers and drug runners. Billions more will be spent to promote gender equity, fight “structural racism,” expand access to abortion, and construct buildings and parks named after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, retiring Senator Richard Shelby (R-Ark.) and former First Lady Michelle Obama among others.

    Perhaps the most outrageous provision in the bill is a hefty budget hike for the Department of Justice. Attorney General Merrick Garland, who spends the majority of his time and resources targeting Donald Trump, his associates, and his supporters, will receive a nearly 10 percent raise next year, bringing the Justice Department’s annual budget to $38.7 billion. More than $212 million is earmarked to hire almost 100 temporary government lawyers to help prosecute January 6 protesters, a caseload now nearing 1,000 Americans with promises to add another 1,000 more.

    The Federal Bureau of Investigations will get $569 million more next year as that agency’s budget exceeds $11 billion for the first time. Garland and FBI Director Christopher Wray have made it clear by word and deed that the imaginary threat of “domestic violent extremists,” i.e., those who dare to criticize the regime will remain their top priority. This means more predawn FBI raids of Capitol “trespassers,” more indefinite incarceration for those awaiting trial, more prison sentences for nonviolent offenses, more misery, and more destruction of Constitutional rights.

    And that’s just fine with the overwhelming majority of Republicans in Washington who’ve been silent in the face of this unprecedented form of government retaliation against Trump supporters. In fact, outgoing Senator Roy Blunt (R-Miss.) explained that the Justice Department really needed the big funding boost. “I’ve always been for prosecuting anybody who violated the law on January the 6th,” Blunt told NBC News this week. “And there are, like, 800 cases already. So I can’t imagine that they don’t need some extra money.”

    Good riddance, you clown.

    The FBI, particularly in light of recent revelations of the bureau’s collusion with Big Tech to suppress coverage of Hunter Biden’s laptop and criticism of mail-in voting, should be dismantled and defunded, not rewarded for its interference in two presidential elections among other malfeasance. Nor should the agency receive $375 million in capital funding to build a shiny new headquarters in either Virginia or Maryland as the bill also provides.

    But that didn’t stop 18 Republican senators, including McConnell and two-time presidential loser Mitt Romney, from voting to pass the omnibus bill on Thursday. Another “yes” vote was from Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), the former chair of the Senate Judiciary who promised for years to “get to the bottom” of numerous Justice Department scandals.

    No group of politicians has licked the boots of President Zelenskyy more than Republican senators. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is among Zelenskyy’s biggest supporters, insisting this week that “providing assistance for Ukrainians to defeat the Russians is the number one priority for the United States right now according to most Republicans. That’s how we see the challenges confronting the country at the moment.”

    And there you have it. One of the most powerful—albeit most unpopular—leaders in Washington thinks lining Zelenskyy’s army-green pockets with more U.S. tax dollars is a greater need than tackling any number of ongoing crises roiling the country right now.

    In a last bit of symbolism Wednesday night, Zelenskyy exited the House chambers carrying the case holding the folded American flag. A two-bit actor and international con man walked out with billions of American dollars and a cherished token of America’s sacrifice and in the real fight for freedom, justice, and security.

    And the fiends in the hall systematically destroying that legacy for the people they are elected to represent cheered again.

    Traitors.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 19:50

  • The Season Of Five Finger Discounts: Shoplifting A $100 Billion Problem For US Retailers
    The Season Of Five Finger Discounts: Shoplifting A $100 Billion Problem For US Retailers

    US retailers are experiencing unprecedented losses due to a nationwide spike in retail thefts that has become a $100 billion problem for the industry. Brick-and-mortar stores have increased police presence and other theft-deterrent merchandising strategies as store managers beef up security to prevent five-finger discounts. 

    Across the nation, the number of shoplifting incidents has soared post-Covid, which has concerned the National Retail Federation.

    NRF data shows shrink — an industry term for loss in inventory — accounted for 1.4% of retail sales in 2021, or about $94.5 billion. Before the pandemic, retail shrink increased by 7% on an annual growth rate, but as soon as 2020 came along, thefts jumped 47% and increased another 4% in 2021.

    Retail thefts are so bad that Target reported last month that gross profit margins were reduced by $400 million this year. A Target spokesperson said the problem is primarily due to “organized retail crime.” 

    Organized retail crime has increased under the Biden administration while progressive-run cities implement social justice reform. Criminals are taking advantage of relaxed penalties for shoplifting, fueling a nationwide crime wave. California is one state where retail thefts have spiraled out of control. 

    In a CNBC interview earlier this month, Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon warned that if the retail theft problem weren’t addressed over time, “prices will be higher and/or stores will have to close.”

    Needless to say, it is almost impossible to run a profitable business in such a toxic environment of thefts and inflation. 

    Even Dollar Tree said in its November earnings call that shrink and inflation decreased operating margins at its stores by 1%. 

    Electronic and drugstores have been hit the hardest:

    “It’s a quick in, quick out [layout] with valuable electronics, over-the-counter drugs, cosmetics and beauty care, which are desirable and mobile items,” Read Hayes, a research scientist for the Loss Prevention Research Council, told WSJ. 

    Walgreens Boots Alliance’s CFO James Kehoe told investors earlier this year that shrink would slash net income “in excess of $0.15 a share” this fiscal year. He said shrink accounted for about 3.25% of the company’s revenue, jumping above historical norms of 2%. 

    And if progressive politicians nationwide fail to address the shoplifting crime wave, retailers will close up shops and move elsewhere. An exodus would cause their tax base to crumble.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 19:15

  • Dave Collum's 2022 Year In Review, Part 1: All Roads Lead To Ukraine
    Dave Collum’s 2022 Year In Review, Part 1: All Roads Lead To Ukraine

    Authored by David B. Collum, Betty R. Miller Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology – Cornell University (Email: dbc6@cornell.edu, Twitter: @DavidBCollum),

    This Year in Review is brought to you by Pfizer, FTX, and Raytheon…

    Every year, David Collum writes a detailed “Year in Review” synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year’s is no exception, with Dave striking again in his usually poignant and delightfully acerbic way.

    To download Part 1 as a pdf, click here: 2022 Year in Review: All Roads Lead to Ukraine.

    Introduction

    Every year, I write an annual survey of what happened in the world. After posting at Peak Prosperity, it gets a bump from the putative commies at Zerohedge1,2,3,4 who I read religiously. (I have topped over 60 cameo appearances at Zerohedge, consistent with getting booted off Twitter four times.) Why do I write it? My best answer is that you do not understand something until you have written your ideas down coherently. I am also trying to figure out who keeps yelling “Beetlejuice!”

    Write as often as possible, not with the idea at once of getting into print, but as if you were learning an instrument.

    ~ J. B. Priestley, English novelist

    I break every rule of blog marketing. Nobody writes one gigantic blog a year, but it makes the rounds. It is onerous and exhausting, especially since I must necessarily procrastinate up to the deadline.

    2022: The Year I spent reading Dave Collum’s 2021 Year In Review.

    ~ Commenter

    Most years, I write what I can and then wrap it. In 2021, however, I had a primal drive to cover the usual stuff plus two topics that do not lend themselves to abbreviation: the Covid pandemic and rising global authoritarianism. Many are now realizing that the former is a manifestation of the latter. While I may not have been correct I had to get it right…if that makes any sense. Like so many young athletes in 2021, I left it all on the field. I uploaded it too demoralized and depressed to even send it to friends, confidants, and family.

    The peeing was special.

    ~ David Einhorn

    Diehards found it anyway and reached out with comments. Two I call good friends had diametric views that I will take the liberty of paraphrasing. Sitting on one shoulder was Tony Deden, founder of Edelweiss Holdings based in Switzerland and a saint, who sensed my pain and urged me to stop writing. He went beyond the pale by inviting me to detox in his chalet in the Swiss Alps or on his 25-acre strawberry farm on Crete. I had to pass because traveling is hard on the family. On the other shoulder was David Einhorn, a friend of a dozen years who has helped me in ways few will ever know. He told me I must keep writing it. I think 2021 could have been the apex and a perfect time to stop. I sided with David this year but may soon follow Tony’s advice.

    OK, Dave, but what is that peeing thing about? Well, I was scheduled to host David and his lovely girlfriend, Natalie, for a late dinner on a Thursday night at my house. I answered the door in my bathrobe, they had horrified looks, and I exclaimed, “Fuck. It’s Thursday?” We got takeout, and all was fine, even after my sweet little Boston Terrier puppy, Fiona, pissed on Natalie. That, dear friends, is how you treat financial royalty!

    All Roads Lead to Ukraine. Trying to understand the war from a dead cold start was monumentally hard. Geopolitical events occur to teach Americans geography; I am no exception. As a combination of foreshadowing and trigger warning, I am going to steelman the debate by taking a decidedly Russian perspective but am not sure it is steelmanning if you come to believe it. If this is gonna drive you nuts, I beg you to stop reading because you will just get mad while I wallow in the slime of your frustrated soul.

    I propose Vladimir Putin for the Nobel Prize in Medicine, for solving COVID globally in 48 hours.

    ~ Anonymous

    As Ron Popeil would say, “But wait. There’s more!” The Ukrainian theme runs deeper than that. Here is a little more foreshadowing. Canadian trucker crusher Chrystia Freeland has deep Ukrainian Nazi roots. Nina Jankowicz, initially appointed as head of Biden’s Orwellian “Disinformation Governing Board” (Ministry of Truth for short) was doing psy-op work in Ukraine in her previous gig. The collapse of the second largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world (FTX) revealed a massive money laundering scheme through Ukraine with political ties in the US. The rising tide of a global neo-Nazism—an idea I am still dubious about—connects tiki torchers in Charlottesville, suspicious rabble-rousers in the January 6th “insurrection”, the Patriot Front, and the Azov Battalion in Ukraine.5 Who is that guy with the horns hanging out with Ukrainian “nationalist”?

    The U.S.-sponsored bioweapons lab in Wuhan that spawned the SARS-Cov-2 virus has 36 counterparts in Ukraine. The crackhead son of the President of the United States ran scams in Ukraine via Burisma Holdings, the same country that his dad funded a proxy war. And who was the largest donor to the Clinton Foundation for 15 years? Ukraine. Go figure.

    A Year in Transition. This was my runner up for the title. Aren’t we always stuck on the “Mobius Strip from Hell” that never ends? Francis Fukuyama and Tom Friedman were wrong: history did not end, and the world is going spherical again rather quickly. Of course, we never know the future, but each year seems to have themes that play out with a quantized feel to it. By contrast, 2022 has left world economies heading south but with no bottom in sight. Neither the Fed nor the markets are done inflicting pain. The risk of global famine is real but with inestimable consequences. The futures of Bitcoin and other crypto currencies hang in the balance with more than just price corrections now in play. The war in Ukraine could end with a whimper (but only if Russia wins) or with a thermonuclear conflagration (nobody wins). Europeans are pondering the relative merits of freezing to death owing to lack of energy or starving to death owing to lack of food, but maybe those potentially biblical events are just clickbait. The WEF has reared its ugly head—the WEF’s Great Reset is not just a theory—yet we still haven’t a clue what those diabolical authoritarian meat puppets are up to. Why do we have to start eating bugs and forfeiting all earthly belongings and to whom. It is hard to see how we smoothly get to 2023 from 2022.

    Me by email: [blah blah, blah…we are hosed…blah, blah, gurgle, gurgle]

    Larry Summers: Thanks for these thoughtful comments. I mostly agree.

    Stephen Roach: Thanks Dave. I am in violent agreement with Larry these days. Under Powell, the Fed is currently in the deepest hole it has ever been in. Anything is possible, I guess—including a night-time landing on an aircraft carrier in the midst of a raging typhoon. Might not be soft, though…

    Maybe the markets and economy will be fine—maybe I am merely full of shit—but the other guys in that email threesome are deep and dark too. Stephen, who has been so generous with his time and wisdom over many years, expressed dismay in an op-ed over a particularly inaccurate call about what would happen. I offered wisdom in return:

    Me by email: Several years ago I promised myself I would stop reading about what will happen. I am not sure we ever know what had happened and am clueless about what is happening.

    Roach: You are a better man than me!

    My accrued wisdom comes from having read and made too many predictions that were garbage or profoundly early. I have spent countless hours over the years pondering alternative narratives via suppositories offered in the press, good versus evil, the meaning of life, contemporary events in historical contexts, and what it means to be human. The future is too much to handle. Michael Crichton once noted that it is sobering to read newspapers from 30 years ago; the above-the-fold hot topics seem so irrelevant. He also pointed out that persistent fear can lay waste to your mental and physical health.6

    I identify as a conspiracy theorist. My pronouns are They/Lied.

    When there’s no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. When you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.

    ~ Maajid Nawaz, British activist and radio host

    I am confounded that I—one of the <2% of Cornell’s faculty who are openly right of center—am trying to warn the rest of my colleagues that they are being duped by the evil corporations in collusion with Big Government—the definition of fascism. Too much acid in middle school for this boy I guess. Despite my growing doubts that I may never penetrate the layers of the onion where truth resides, my resolve that has strengthened over the last couple of years is that when something of importance seems off or confusing, your default position should be that somebody in a position of power is conspiring. Why? Because that is what people in power do. It is in their DNA. They wake up every morning pondering how many baby harp seals they can bludgeon that day. Give me any topic—a keyword even—and I can serve up an alternative model that will not be told on CNN. My training as a parent tells me those demons are scheming. So, indeed, I am a conspiracy theorist. If you are not one, ignorance is bliss. Hang on to those lovely thoughts. Those who always default to incompetence as the explanation appear not to be under the spell of the little green gremlins who crawl out of my cell phone and molest me while I sleep.

    The True Believer. In 1953, the formerly homeless Eric Hoffer7 wrote The True Believer,8 a short and highly digestible story of mass movements—why they start, where they get their oxygen from, how they end, and who the critical players are. The book got into my DNA. Not to be a plot spoiler, but Hoffer’s ideas are too important to count on you going over to Amazon.

    You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.

    ~ Eric Hoffer

    Mass movements start with intellectuals, often in universities where most bad ideas are hatched. The movement gets oxygen when the masses—what Hoffer calls “the fanatics”—pick up the ball and run with it. Hoffer serves up an unflattering view of the fanatics as societal bottom feeders with little to lose from profound change. “Fuck it: let’s do it!” They feel important as part of a glorious army fighting for a righteous cause, with villains who are the root cause of the wretchedness of their existence. They don’t want freedom but rather a freedom from responsibility. The rallying cry is always about a future that promises to return to a once-glorious past. Make America Great Again. Battle-scarred soldiers returning home searching for something familiar and elevating embrace militias. Friend and author, Peter Boghossian, reminds us that you will not sway fanatics with facts but rather by understanding where they are coming from emotionally.9

    Our greatest pretenses are built up not to hide the evil and the ugly in us, but our emptiness. The hardest thing to hide is something that is not there.

    ~ Eric Hoffer

    At his most poignant moment, Hoffer notes that there is often self-sacrifice involved, whether it is ancient clerics giving up all Earthly belongings including sex to climate changers giving up their cars (and maybe sex). They need to feel their suffering is not wasted.

    Propaganda does not deceive people; it merely helps them to deceive themselves.

    ~ Eric Hoffer

    Artful leaders will sense the direction the masses are moving and then lead them there. Their tools include imitation, hatred, and propaganda. We must conform (mask up), hate the opponent (Donald or Hillary), and tell the noble lie (vaccinate for the children). Propaganda doesn’t flip natural tendencies, only amplify existing ones.

    Sometimes a movement peters out, and other times it ends in tragedy measurable in millions of lost lives. Oddly, many are more willing to die for an abstract future than to protect rights and material goods they already possess. A clever leader can head the mob off at the pass. A potentially brilliant example, Malcolm X, inserted Islam—not my favorite religion I should say—to bring meaning to otherwise meaningless lives. I have a theory that FDR was an insider—shocking I know—who recognized that fanatical Trotskyites were going to win if Amity Schaes’ Forgotten Man was left adrift. By compromising bigly and contrary to right-wing dogma, FDR saved capitalism. But beware: disillusioned fanatics don’t just move to the middle but rather flip to the opposite pole, retaining their fanaticism. The “true believers” are addicted to movements; they are serial zealots. I catch glimpses of this looking in the mirror. I think of myself as a “True Disbeliever”: give me a narrative, and I will find the other side, but am I simply joining a different mob? Probably, but at least it is usually the less populated one.

    Passionate hatred can give meaning and purpose to an empty life.

    ~ Eric Hoffer

    With social media and hoards of unhappy campers noticing massive wealth disparity, we have entered the Golden Age of Fanaticism. The Forgotten Man has reappeared. While reading Hoffer’s 70-year-old treatise, I could see it everywhere—MAGA, Trump haters, Antifa, climate changers, vaxxers, anti-vaxxers, maskers, bitcoin hodlers, pro-choicers/lifers, black lives matter, Tiki Torchers, or spotted-owl savers. Will this era end with an FDR or a Josef Stalin?

    Part 1

    • Introduction

    • My Year

    • Investing

    • Gold and Silver

    • The Economy

    • Inflation

    • The Fed

    • Broken Markets

    • Energy

    • Collapse of FTX

    • News Nuggets

    • Roe v. Wade

    • Truckers

    • Patriot Front

    • Uvalde and Other Shootings

    • Climate Change

    • Nina Jankowicz

    Part 2

    • War in Ukraine

    Part 3

    • Covid and Vaccines

    • Conclusion

    • Acknowledgment

    • Books

    My Year

    I have the right to remain silent. I just don’t have the skill.

    From 12 years of tradition and a need to chronicle my life before my adult-onset progeria causes me to hit my expiration date or lose one-too-many marbles, I go through Dave’s Year. It is like a diary. High points in 2022 included a hedge fund founders’ dinner in NYC. I don’t remember founding a hedge fund, but there I was in a midtown Manhattan rathskeller dining with about 8 guys with net worths that were comfortably larger than mine. The high point was watching a legend with battle scars wrestle a tech bull (calf) to the dirt, declaring, “Do you know what a 95% correction is? It is a 90% correction that then cuts in half!” I got this odd sense that many of their profound skills ran deep but were siloed. When asked for our outside-the-box idea at dinner’s end, I went with “Russian oil companies.” About a week later I made my move, two days later Putin made his move, and two seconds later the shares stopped trading. Fortunately, I sized my position brilliantly—so small that it did not matter—because I was looking to catch the dead cat, not the falling knife. It is possible they will reappear when Wall Street decides it’s time. Nevertheless, the dinner guests got a chuckle.

    I am told that my writeup on Covid in the 2021 YIR1 was being considered by Steve Scalise’s staff to be uploaded to the Congressional record: “I will send this to my staff on the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus. They will be able to pull a lot of gems out of this. #2 – My staff is excited to get this data, and they’re combing through it.” I have no idea if it made it, but I savor pyrrhic victories. I also get my share of unsolicited gifts—“schwag” as they call it—including heaps of books from authors, a sweater, a set of Wiseguy suspenders,2 a hat saying “Vaccine Survivor”, Epstein coffee mugs, 200 Ivermectin tablets, and a few silver rounds. I’m holding out for ingots and cash. Gold would be great but rhodium is my first choice.

    I learned doing long-form podcasts with Chris Irons (QTR) that keeping an empty glass nearby allows me to go on for hours without a formal break. This year I learned that if you are also drinking copious amounts of ginger ale, do not get distracted. It was Gandhi time.

    Podcasts. I do tons of podcasts (below). Talking to smart people is a hoot, and if they want to record it and post it on the internet, I am up with that. (I have many more phone calls.) They are all good. The irony is that I can bust my ass to get 2,000 people to click a paper in the Journal of the American Chemical Society and get over a quarter million clicks from a two-hour podcast with Tony “Pomp” Pompliano. Largely for archival reasons, the podcasts are listed below. Attempting not to offend any hosts, I will highlight a couple. The three-hour Twitter Spaces with the legendary George Noble (Peter Lynch’s understudy) was honorific. The podcast with Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano from a cabin in the Adirondacks seems to have captured the public’s imagination the most.3 Two foursomes with Tommy Carrigan, Tom Luongo, and Jim Kunstler are raucous.4,5 A scheduled Newsmax interview was cut short when one of Biden’s drone attacks hit his target and me with one shot. The New Orleans Investor Conference filled with old friends and bucket listers included four independent speaking gigs. Sometimes I wonder what wormhole I exited the organic chemistry universe to enter the politico-economic universe. Curiously, a self-evidently black limo driver who drove me through the murder capital of the US6 to the hotel had gone through his own wormhole to become 100% MAGA. I wrote about the rising tide of black conservatism in 2016; he assured me I was correct.7

    George Noble marathon Twitter spaces.8

    2022 New Orleans Investment Conference9 Boom and Bust panel10 with Jim Stack, Peter Boockvar (@pboockvar), and Jim Iuorio (@jimiuorio).

    2022 New Orleans Investment talk: The Merits of Price Gouging.11

    2021 New Orleans Investment Conference round table released (2022)12

    Justin O’Connell (@GoldSilverBTC) on GoldSilverBitcoin13

    George Gammon (@GeorgeGammon) The Rebel Capitalist Show14 with a few short clips.15,16,17,18

    Elijah Johnson on Liberty and Finance podcast (two)19,20

    Jay Martin (@JayMartin) of the Jay Martin Show.21

    Tom Bodrovics (@PalisadesRadio) on Palisades Gold Radio.22

    James Kunstler (@jhkunstler) on KunstlerCast.23

    Tommy Carrigan (@tommys_podcast) of Tommy’s Podcast with Tom Luongo (@TFL1728)24

    Tommy Carrigan of Tommy’s Podcast (@tommys_podcast) in February 2022.25

    Tommy Carrigan of Tommy’s Podcast (@tommys_podcast) in May 2022.26

    Tommy Carrigan (@tommys_podcast) on Tommy’s Podcast with James Kunstler (@jhkunstler), Tom Luongo (@TFL1728) in August, 202227

    Tommy Carrigan (@tommys_podcast) on Tommy’s Podcast with James Kunstler (@jhkunstler), Tom Luongo (@TFL1728) in November, 202228

    Tom Luongo (@TFL1728) of Gold Goats ‘n Guns.29

    Craig Hemke (#TFMetals) of TFMetals Podcast.30

    Marty Bent (@MartyBent) on Tales from the Crypt.31

    Jim Iuorio (@jimiuorio) and Bob Iaccino (@Bob_Iaccino) on Futures Edge.32,33

    Crypto Highlights34

    Anthony Pomp (@APompliano)35

    My Zoom group (Medical Doctors for Covid Ethics International) (starts at 25 minutes).36

    Michael St. Pierre Stand-Easy with MSP .37

    Kai Hoffmann of Soar Financial (August, 2022)38

    Kai Hoffman of SF Live interview (October 2022)39

    Lee Justo (@Lee_Justo) of Risk40

    Cedric Youngelman (@CedYoungelman) of The Bitcoin Matrix.41

    West Virginia radio show “Us & Them”42

    Anthony Fatseas (@AnthonyFatseas) on WTFinance43

    Tom Pochari44,45,46

    Tyler Chesser (@thetylerchesser) on Elevate47,48

    Four TradKatKnight podcasts (behind a paywall) that I’ve never listened to

    I mean, they say you die twice. One time when you stop breathing and a second time, a bit later on, when somebody says your name for the last time.

    ~ Banksy

    YIRs from Previous Years. I have to do a little housekeeping. Website rollovers and general internet rot has damaged links to twelve consecutive YIRs. A fully repaired comprehensive list is here and listed below. This is merely archival, hoping somebody will keep uttering my name even if it is to curse me.

    2021 Year in Review: Crisis of Authority and the Age of Narratives (PDF)

    2020 Year in Review: WTF Happened in 2020? (PDF)

    2019 Year in Review: Epstein Didn’t Kill Himself. (PDF)

    2018 Year in Review: Views From Inside My Matrix. (PDF)

    2017 Year in Review: Markets Fiddle While Rome Burns. (PDF)

    2016 Year in Review: A Clockwork Orange. (PDF)

    2015 Year in Review: Scenic Vistas from Mount Stupid. (PDF)

    2014 Year in Review: Pushing Out on the Existential Risk Curve in a Global
    Game of Tetris. (PDF)

    2013 Year in Review: Austerity is not a policy. (PDF)

    2012 Year in Review: Free Markets, Rule of Law, and Other Urban Legends.(PDF)

    2011 Year in Review: Signs of an American Spring and a Fourth Turning. (PDF)

    2010 Year in Review: Fugly Gives Way to Muddling. (PDF)

    2009 Year in Review: Thirty Years of Investing from the Cheap Seats. (PDF)

    I have so many good friends on twitter. These are two of the toughest hombres on Twitter:

    Mr. Fly is well-known on fintwit. Marc is a famous short seller who went supernova in the mainstream press by calling out FTX a month before the collapse. (Marc: my offer for dinner on my deck still stands. Same holds for you, Mr. Fly, but I’m not a floosie.)

    Before moving into the specific issues I should mention fact-checkers. They started with a husband and wife team at Snopes that, over time, was putting out more content than theoretically possible for a twosome. They have proliferated like Tribbles across the internet and have mutated into propaganda machines. Fact-checkers get things right only when it is politically expedient. If you take what they say at face value, you are an idiot, and that’s a fact.49 My immutable law of fact-checking is that the more you find, the more likely the so-called conspiracy theory being debunked is correct. My allusions to fact-checkers throughout the document are, without exception, mentioned as a vote of confidence that the idea being checked is correct.

    The truth is like a lion; you don’t have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself.

    ~ Saint Augustine of Hippo

    Investing

    There is time to go long, time to go short, and time to go fishing.

    ~ Jesse Livermore, the most famous trader

    As I say every year, I will be fine in retirement as long as I do not fuck up. The problem is that inflation now increases the probability of fucking up massively. You can’t sit on cash for too long without serious erosion of its value, but more people have died reaching for yield than at the point of a gun. There are treacherous waters ahead.

    Replaying the tape so y’all understand how I got here, I had three great decades and one dawg. I was 100% long bonds getting about 12% annualized from 1980 leading up to the ’87 crash. The crash and a chat with a colleague caused me to flip to equities. Shocking to those who know me, I became a raging equity bull—a tech bull—until about July of ’98, when market valuations made me too nervous: I pulled half of my equities out. Following the Asian crisis, some dumb luck with trivial back-of-the-envelope calculations convinced me we had rallied back into an epic bubble. I decided that leaving even half my equities exposed had been stupid and pulled the rest out in mid ’99. (Pulling the trigger on my soaring tech stocks took cojones.) I went long cash and gold in ’99, white-knuckling it through the 2001 bottom was hard, but I haven’t sold an ounce to date. Hoping to hedge inflation I bought quite a bit of Fidelity energy and material funds starting in 2001, leading to an amazing (graded on a curve) 13% annualized return for the decade ending on 12/31/09.

    The market does what it should do, just not always when.

    ~ Jesse Livermore

    After three decades of good calls, Mr. SmartyPants then failed to anticipate the Fed having trillions of acts of sex with barnyard animals to mitigate what should have been a deeper plunge in ‘08–’09. I did not ride the ‘roid rage up to 2021.While the world partied like it was 1999, I rode what Dylan Grice called his “cockroach portfolio: 25% stocks, 25% bonds, 25% cash, and 25% gold” but with a lower equity weighting, clawing out a 4% annualized gain in total net worth. I forgive myself. One of the greatest bull runs happened, but it never should have. I can hear the bulls cackling about “what is versus what should be.” However, I think the next secular bear market has started and will take years to finish. Being right this time will not be that satisfying: “The vanquished cry but the victors do not laugh.”

    The age of financial assets is over.

    ~ Murray Stahl, Horizon Kinetics

    At the urging of some luminaries who suggested my portfolio was a little out of balance (psychotically so), I saw opportunities in energy in 2020 as it dropped to just 2% of the S&P, Exxon was replaced from the Dow with Salesforce.com, and nuclear power could glow in the dark someday. (BTW-Exxon is up 83% since the swap while Salesforce.com is down 49%.)

    If 2020 was the energy bottom, I nailed it. Those gains shown below do not even include substantial dividends. By no means did I size the energy move right, but it was enough to make a difference. I think we are entering a commodity and energy boom that may last decades owing to decades of underinvestment that may persist as governments oppose fossil fuels on “ethical” grounds.1 You might want to buy the companies that already have pipes and mines in place, approximating royalty trusts. Grantham says such companies are 60% cheap relative to the S&P.2 (I prefer absolute valuations, not those based on a curve relative to other bubbles.) Murray Stahl, a very impressive maven at Horizon Kinetics, sees a 25-year cycle dead ahead as the age of finance for the sake of finance tanks.3 I intend to give them some money to play with, but not yet.

    Figure. Fidelity FSENX energy fund.

    I live on Cayuga Lake in a house that is a lifestyle changer, but it is threefold more than I needed, which forces me to call it a real estate play. Cash in TIAA and other short-term bonds are returning 3.5%. I also have 15% of my wealth in a fund that is not under my control (white privilege from my parents) that is an old-man 40–60 portfolio with both portions getting beaten up (–12% ytd). My risk assets and their 2022 returns are as follows:

    • Fidelity Select Gold Portfolio (FSAGX): +11%

    • Fidelity Natural Resources Fund (FNARX): +35%

    • Fidelity Select Energy Portfolio (FSENX): +58%

    • Goehring & Rozencwajg Resources (GRHIX): +15%

    • Impala Platinum (IMPUY): –18%

    • Jaguar Mining (JAGGF): –40%

    • Kirkland Lake (KL): +8%

    • Palm Valley Capital Fund (PVCMX): +2%

    • Rio Tinto (RIO): +3%

    • Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW): –12%

    • Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV): +3%

    • RSX –100%

    • Central Fund of Canada 0%

    • Gold 0%

    • Silver +3%

    Many of these positions have fortress balance sheets and huge dividends (not included above), making them buy-and-holds as long as their dividends remain. Owing to the relative weightings of all assets (not shown), dividends, and net savings (21% of my gross salary contributing 0.8% to that gain), my 2022 year-to-date wealth accrual came in at 0.5%. Graded on a curve, that’s pretty good. But throw in inflation and I still got whacked.

    Let’s walk through some of the thinking. I have a small position in Eric Cinnamond’s PVCMX. Eric is a brilliant micro-cap investor. He had closed his fund and then reopened it in 2019. He listens to hundreds of conference calls, shows no interest in hot tips, and invests when he sees the whites of their eyes. The chart is revealing (below). It is flat for the first nine months because he bought nothing. Eric nearly bottom-called the March 2020 covid dip and then went flat again. He is currently 80% cash equivalents. I am paying him for his patience and will give him more when I see activity pick up.

    Goehring and Rozencwajg’s GRHIX is a uranium play. It is long-term (decades), but these guys seem to know the below-the-radar small miners. So far so good. I ticked that position up a little this year but it is not chunky yet. As Europe and the rest of the World get pounded by energy shortages, people may soon be begging for nuclear power plants in their backyards—NIMBY turns RIMBY (right in my backyard). As to the other energy issues, I will leave that to the section on Energy and Ukraine. Rio Tinto has all the attributes I like, and it would require an asteroid to take out their global entire mining operations. Even if the ESG movement goes wild and everybody turns to alternative energies, gigatons of basic metals are going to get pulled out of the ground, arguably way more than known reserves.4 This superimposes nicely on Russia’s diminished contributions to the commodity supplies.

    The game of nominal value of money is over, as this system does not allow to control the supply of resources…Our product, our rules. We don’t play by the rules we didn’t create.5

    ~ Alexei Miller, Gazprom CEO

    The three platinum miners (IMPUY, SBSW, and ANGPY) have strong balance sheets, handsome dividends, no tailwind from a stagnant platinum spot price, and valuations like Russian equities. They are, however, also in South Africa where confiscation of assets is by no means a zero-probability event,6,7 and labor issues are always present.8,9 The founder of a fund professing to be the largest private holder of one of the three reached out to give me a two-hour phone tutorial. Critically, these platinum miners are making their money off rhodium. Unidentified shoppers are stealing catalytic converters from cars (including my son’s).10 SBSW is actively investing in new production.11 Above-ground platinum supplies have been cut in half in one year.12 The hydrogen fuel cells could be game changers, and they use lots of platinum.13 The risk is that Goldman has a ‘buy’ recommendation on the miners said to be based on good fundamentals, which probably means they have shares and ingots to unload on suckers.14

    Figure 1. Platinum (blue) versus gold (orange).15

    I had owned a token position in the Russian equity fund RSX for years, but I was interested in a bigger position. RSX was loaded with Lukoil, Phosagro, Sherbrook, and Gazprom, all priced like used pillows at the Salvation Army Thrift Store. Some very smart guys were speaking of Russian energy companies as contrarian plays in 2021. Then Vlad decided to threaten Ukraine, and those shares started selling hard. Although rare bulls like Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman saw the contrarian play of a lifetime, most shareholders wanted out. Kentucky’s Pension plan was a huge holder,16 which is themost contrary indicator because everything they touch turns to shit. I pulled the trigger on another token amount—less than 0.1% of my net worth—as the shares dropped to about 20% of net asset value with a P/E below 2, hoping to go full goblin if geopolitical tensions subsided. A couple of days later trading of all Russian assets was terminated, and the margin calls on the big players came rolling in.17

    So are my RSX shares gone for good? I am not sure. It’s like a Cuban expat living in Miami holding a land deed in Cuba—a dollar and a dream. As it stands, by terminating trading of the shares, we essentially handed the ownership of companies holding vast resources back to the Rooskies. Does that make any sense?

    Meanwhile, JPMorgan and Bank of America continued quietly trading Russian bonds.18 I’m not sure how that works, but it tells me that trading equity shares will resume when Wall Street says so. Kuppy et al. could emerge as big winners. Blackrock and Goldman will get first dibs after that. I will not be given a cheap entry, which means my token loss will become a token gain.

    Gold and Silver

    I’m a fan of gold. I think gold’s valuable in a crisis. The market has come to believe in an omniscient Federal Reserve, and it’s no such thing. These guys don’t really know what they’re doing in any deep way. It’s a giant financial experiment, and we’re at the mercy of their experiment that maybe is right now in the process of going wrong, so God help us.1

    ~ Seth Klarman, Baupost

    Having entered the World of Peter Schiff —every imaginable disaster that Peter envisioned was tee’d up—gold had a nice start but did very little over the year. One should not, however, be discouraged. Over the last two decades, gold has climbed 9.1% annualized (Figure 1), which is impressive for a pet rock. I can hear you say, “Yeah. But who owned gold (or silver) for two decades?” The answer is me and about five other guys. I should probably take this opportunity to draw the readers’ attentions to Incrementum’s reports, which are eye candy for the bugs and a primer for bugs-in-training.2,3

    Figure 1. Gold performance.

    What is holding gold back? Possibly the crypto hodlers—those who “hold on for dear life”—are sapping demand for alternative currency equivalents, but they haven’t exactly benefitted from a strong bid with BTC down 59% ytd and down 72% off its all-time high. I can entertain the idea that powerful (supra-sovereign-level) are rigging the gold market, but I am not convinced.4

    In related news, JPM got its annual “tax the rich” wrist slap for committing massive fraud in the gold futures markets.5,6“This was an open strategy on the desk. It wasn’t hidden.” However, I remain unconvinced that they are suppressing the price rather than simply running over investors on both the upside and downside. The globally destabilizing dollar strength in the Forex currency markets certainly hurt gold price in dollars; gold denominated in all other currencies has done well. However, the dollar is still getting trampled if we stop grading on the Forex curve (see Inflation).

    The above-ground gold supplies from mining are growing only 1–2% annualized. With gold demand being sopped up by ETFs, it strikes me as possible that for gold to take off it may require price discovery in which the physical market overwhelms the futures market by forcing a default at the Comex, which seems plausible given that in a world becomes more dystopian. Goldman raised their price target to $2500,7 which is, as noted, a contrary indicator.

    Companies whose profits are so undermined will likely see their share prices drop…Another way to defend the purchasing power of your savings if we return to an era of price controls is by investing in gold.8

    ~ Russell Napier, legendary deflationist of yore

    There were a few memorable moments in the global gold markets. Uganda was said to have discovered deposits capable of producing 320,000 tons (OK. tonnes.) of finished product9 to increase the above-ground global supply 200%. The market didn’t even flicker at that ridiculous claim. The 2014 CIA-sponsored coup in Ukraine and the subsequent invasion of Crimea elicited the generous offer by the U.S. to take possession of $12 billion of Ukrainian gold for safekeeping. In 2022, the U.S. shipment of money and weapons led to the generous U.S. offer to take ownership.10,11,12  We seem to scoop up this barbarous relic every chance we get. The Ukrainian debacle, including confiscation of anything remotely Slavic, has revealed to Russia and all those paying attention that the dollar may be an undependable reserve currency. Russia and China have been amassing gold steadily for most of the last two decades. In an interview that caused my eyes to bulge like a cartoon character, Simon Hunt estimated that the putative 8,500 tons of gold owned by the U.S. may be dwarfed by 12,000 tons of Roosky gold and 55,000 tons of gold in China,13 of which 12,000 are owned by the public.14State-owned corporations have warehouses bulging with stashes. At the very end of 2022, evidence of a big buyer—a gold whale—was traced to China.

    I believe it would be both risk-reducing and return-enhancing to consider adding gold to one ́s portfolio.

    ~ Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates

    Silver was tame too (Figure 2). As with gold, the 9.2% annualized 20-year return is nothing to sneeze at. The above-ground silver supplies are said to be dropping,15 but I have been hearing variants of that story for my 23 years of ownership. The global effort to squander resources on sketchy sources of energy such as solar panels is a reason for optimism. Silver is in every electronic device, including contemporary solar panels, and is embedded deeply enough to be uneconomic to recycle at current prices, especially in the Western world.16

    Figure 2. Silver performance.17

    Our central case is a hard landing by the end of ’23…I don’t rule out something really bad…We are in deep trouble…the repercussions of that are going to be with us for a long, long time.18

    ~ Stan Druckenmiller, God

    The Economy

    The global economy is too much in flux to predict even six months out. The Fed is hiking while many leading economic indicators are sloping downward. The Fed used the word “pain.” Pivot watchers think the Fed will chicken out, but I think they intend to bring the system to its knees. A hard landing will look like a yard sale—broken and useless shit everywhere—but it will also be an emergent process in which the details of the wreckage cannot possibly be predicted. If it is accompanied by deglobalization—if the global players continue to be uncooperative—it could get really ugly. Ex-Stratfor demographer discussed below, Peter Zeihan, says that a profound deglobalization is an inevitable consequence of demographics.1 Putin and NATO are accelerating the process, and it could collapse with one bone-headed move. Meanwhile, the Covidians are preparing the Hofferian fanatics for the next lockdown.

    This economic crisis is just beginning, and it’s going to be as bad or worse and as long as it was during the 1970s.

     ~ Peter Navarro, former White House economic advisor

    Before largely taking a pass this year and watching the economy play out, I would like to take a shot at the question that has plagued many: where have all the workers gone? It is like going into the woods and finding no squirrels or birds. Some economists have called this a strong labor market. I might concede tight, but broken is more accurate. Seven million American men of prime working age—25 to 54—are not merely out of work, but not even looking for it. It is now called the Great Resignation. When you ask small business and restaurant owners where their former employees have gone they respond with some variant of “working for somebody else.” I have not found these mysterious employers of lower-wage workers. Somehow there is a lack of price discovery between workers and potential employers. The missing workers may stem from multiple contributions:

    • Illegal aliens went home and did not come back;

    • People sat on their decks pounding brewskis during the lockdown, deciding that retiring or living on one salary is not so bad;

    • Disabilities, real or perceived, have risen;

    • Some workers have joined what I call the less productive part of the workforce, which includes bloggers, substackers, and YouTubers looking for patrons while others are, as one trucker told me, “trading bitcoin”;

    • Cops have taken a hike because they now hate their jobs at the very moment that (or because) crime in the cities is spiking;

    • Mom-and-pop businesses were destroyed by the lockdown policies of Fauci et al.;

    • Moms or dads who home-schooled their kids are now savvy enough to recognize that marginally offsetting daycare costs with a second salary is common core-level math and economics (makes no sense).

    • Some died from covid and what is euphemistically called “excess mortality” (vaccines);

    The Ethical Skeptic, an anonymous and impressive blogger and covid analyst, compiled 42 reasons behind Dolly Parton’s hit song, “You Can Take This Job and Shove It.”2 It will require wage increases, severe economic hardships, or simply maxing out all credit lines to pull the workers back to the workforce. Paradoxically, workers needing wage gains will be inflationary.

    Inflation

    Stagflation is going to kill you.

    ~ Rebecca Patterson, chief investment strategist at Bridgewater Associates

    Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening.

    ~ Jack Dorsey (@jack), CEO and founder of Twitter, on 11/22/2021

    At the hedge-fund founders’ dinner in New York City only one of the players convinced me they understood that inflation had reverse-transcribed itself into our DNA and was hunkered down. The rest seemed to believe that the Fed would throw a switch and inflation would be vanquished—Bernanke-style. Society seems to have forgotten that many of the most horrid events in history followed on the heels of destructive inflations. Rudy Havenstein understands.1

    Inflation is a worldwide problem right now because of a war in Iraq… excuse me, the war in Ukraine. I’m thinking about Iraq because that’s where my son died.2

    ~ Joe Biden, talking about Bethesda, Iraq

    The qualifications of our leaders seem undeniable. We have a president who noted that a rise from 8.2% to 8.3% is OK because it is just “an inch” (putting the thumb and forefinger close together) and a vice president who thinks that the slight increase means there is almost no inflation. Meanwhile, Congress passed a nearly half trillion dollar bill to fight inflation…and then allocated the money to climate-change grifters and to grow the IRS secret police by 87,000.3 Am I the only one who sees “the Grim Reaper” in the IRS logo?

    I’m sick of this stuff! The American people think the reason for inflation is the government spending more money. Simply not true!

    ~ Joe Biden

    It’s important to dispel some of those who say, well it’s the government spending. No, it isn’t. The government spending is doing the exact reverse, reducing the national debt. It is not inflationary.

    ~ Nancy Pelosi

    The people in Washington will tell you inflation is produced by greedy businessmen or it’s produced by grasping trade unions or it’s produced by spendthrift consumers or maybe it’s those terrible Arab sheiks…only money has that printing press and, therefore, only Washington can produce inflation.4

    ~ Milton Friedman

    Ron Paul warned us for years that government spending is the problem as did Milton Friedman. Davy Crockett even had his come to Jesus moment in his legendary speech to Congress, “It is not yours to give”5 in which he apologized for voting for a big recovery act. Never have so many owed so much to so few. The quirky genius Kim Dotcom reminded us what economist Larry Kotlikoff6 has been sounding the alarm about: even if you were to sell all factories, real estate, hard assets, and equities—a complete liquidation at current market prices—the US would be $66 trillion in the hole.7 Seems problematic. Even Dan Akroyd on SNL got it:8

    I will present to Congress the Inflation Maintenance Program, whereby the US Treasury will make up any inflation cost losses through direct tax rebates to the public in cash. Now you may say, “Won’t that cost alot of money? Won’t that increase the deficit? Sure it will, but so what? We’ll just print more money.9

    ~ Dan Akroyd imitating Jimmy Carter, 1978

    The answer to the age-old question, “do rising prices cause inflation or does inflation cause rising prices?” is “yes.” Inflation is impossible to discuss without introducing gross distortions. The idea that something so complex as the ebb and flow of prices—something akin to global weather patterns—can be described using a binary vocabulary—inflation or deflation—is bonkers. Even if you throw in a few adjectives to smooth the edges, it still doesn’t work. There is a tribe in Africa that has three numbers: one, two, and many. They were never going to invent calculus. Economists armed with calculus will never be able to describe money flows using only two words. Language corrupts ideas.

    Now we’ve had moments in history with extreme leverage, we’ve had moments in history with extreme inflationary forces, and even speculative environments. But, I assert that we’d never seen these three macro-imbalances occurring all at once.

    ~ Tavi Costa (@TaviCosta) of Crescat Capitol

    Calculating the CPI (consumer price index) requires measuring various consumer prices and then statistically overweighting components that naturally go down (tech) or can’t be measured (implicit rent).10 Thanks to the Boskin Commission, at the behest of politicians looking to distort the numbers to look good and reduce the cost of inflation-adjusted payouts, came up with a Nobel Prize-worthy concept—the fudge factor. My favorite is “hedonic adjustments.” Let’s ignore the fact that hedonic is defined by some chick named Mirriam Webster as “of, relating to, or characterized by pleasure” whose etymology stems from medieval agricultural economists “choking the chickens.”

    For those of you who may be unaware, Boskin is the economist/weasel/fraud who helped to officially distort the CPI, making it more or less worthless as a measure of inflation.

    ~ Barry Ritholtz

    Let me illustrate with my favorite example. The blender your grandmother bought in 1945 died after 70 years because you dropped that pig on the floor. It was replaced by the plastic piece of crap with a life expectancy of the fruit in your smoothy and can’t even be repaired. The cost per use has soared just like the other rapidly depreciating crap in your house, but economists have not yet included accelerated depreciation in the CPI. Thus, the price of the new blender is not hedonically adjusted higher because it is chintzy; it is hedonically adjusted lower because it has more buttons. Addendum: On December 14, having completed this diatribe, my blender broke.

    Another CPI adjustment is called “substitution.” Imagine the price of ribeye has soared from $9/lb to $18/lb—it has. Economists assume that the savvy shopper will switch to strip steak, which is now way overpriced at $9/lb. Through the miracle of “substitution,” the Boskinites claim the price of dinner hasn’t changed, so there is no inflation. Now switch to neo-Marxist Klaus Schwab’s favorite protein—bugs—and we have a deflationary crisis calling for Fed intervention. The “substitution” correction should be alongside WD40 and duct tape in the pantheon of all-purpose tools. Oddly, economists seem to have overlooked the subtlety that substitution should be hedonically offset by the reduction in quality. Ribeye is twice as expensive because it is twice as good. I propose Collum’s Universal Law of Hedonics (CULH):

    substitution x hedonic = 1.0

    Shadowstats.com11 and the Chapwood Index12 have both figured out how to determine inflation: they monitor prices without just making shit up. Lo and behold, inflation has been a runaway train for years. However, you must follow the science or, as my Maw used to say, “you can like it or lump it.” She had other nonsensical aphorisms like “TS”, which took me years to decipher.

    Figure 1. Chapwood Index showing inflation in 10 major cities.13

    Welp. Choice of metric aside, inflation is finally here. After years of those predicting inflation owing to Fed and government largesse, even the mangled CPI rose a demonic 8–9% (higher for those of us living in reality.)

    Notice the number of likes on that otherwise sterile tweet. I hit a nerve that day. Another accountant replied, concurring that he gets the same number. Jim Iuorio of CNBC fame says his restaurant—yes, an Italian restaurant—is seeing 25% hikes in food costs. Oh well, going into an inflationary period concurrent to entering an economic recession hits two other hot bones that have crawled up my ass. Who defined a recession as the period in which the economy is turning down? According to Mirriam of Mensa, a recession is “the act or action of receding.” OK. I gotta let that one go, but I should add that they don’t want to use “depression” because Mirriam calls that “a place or part that is lower than the surrounding area.” Thus, to exit a recession you only need to turn upward (moving off the first derivative of zero.) To exit a depression is like exiting a sand trap: you must exit the other side. Golfers spending time in sandtraps surely understand depressions. My second bone to pick is that boomers will recall from their childhood that economists believed that stagnation and inflation could not co-exist, forcing them to invent a new word, “stagflation.” Think about this: economists were shocked that consumers buying fewer goods and services with the same amount of income puts a drag on the economy? I should have been an economist—a low bar to clear—but that would have required at least one course in economics.

    Aside from priorities, is this even true? Is there any good reason to believe that inflation hits low-income households especially hard?

    ~ Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman), former economist

    I think nobody thought about logistic supply chains or any of that stuff until suddenly it became a big problem.

    ~ Paul Krugman, utterly clueless

    For years, Twitter was littered with people ranting about how inflation would chip away at their debt. How is that working for you? Is that mortgage payment shrinking or even getting easier to pay? What these inflationary virgins did not understand is that wages can be very sticky, whether owing to multi-year contracts or just psychology. Over 70% of Americans say their paycheck is not keeping pace with expenses.14 The other 30% don’t have a paycheck. In 2019, the so-called median deplorable earned $60K and couldn’t rub $400 together to replace their rapidly depreciating appliance without turning to credit. They now are ranting since that $6,000 reduction in real spending power will leave a scar. They’ve also discovered that only a chard of their monthly budget is discretionary. You can’t cut back on your tax bill; mine is going up 8% each of the next two years according to inside sources. That microchip-rich car can’t be fixed in your garage, and it ain’t gonna fix itself. You can cut those violin lessons—the little rug rat sucked anyway—but the hockey is non-negotiable. That mortgage hasn’t changed, but the escrowed taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs sure have. It also looks like you may have overpaid for that shack, making your abode and your 401K the only deflation in your personal universe.

    There is a great deal of Americans where it is uncomfortable that they’re spending more, but they are not gonna go under. You’ve got to stop complaining…you still have your job…so I’m gonna need you to calm down and back off.15

    ~ MSNBC Guest

    Let me drive this point home using inflation to illustrate the miracle of compounding in reverse. Every year we all get some kind of raise (or not). During the GFC Cornell announced there would be no raises that year. On a campus with a faculty brandishing an estimated 2.5 million total SAT points, three business schools, and countless on-the-spectrum math geniuses wandering the campus in a daze, nobody seemed to notice that we got pegged. That 3–4% lost salary persists year after year until you retire, amounting to an entire annual salary lost if you are young. Inflation whacked us this year too: 3.5% raises into the teeth of 8% inflation reduced our salaries by another 5% (or more). Now we are talking over 8% reduction in our lifetime earnings in just two bad years. As an old guy, compounding of my annual salary movements is nearly over. I will top off the tank by staying on payroll, wandering the halls babbling incoherently, and occasionally soiling myself (SNAFU).

    One original thought is worth 1000 meaningless quotes.

    ~ Banksy

    I got into an argument with David Andolfatto of the St. Louis Fed years back in which he asserted Volcker contributed to inflation. Come again? Sounds like he was making an odd case, but those interest rates were ramming >15% returns into the banking system and consumers’ pockets. Maybe Volcker’s recession initiated the reversal of the inflation mindset and money flows while Russia’s cheap resources, China’s cheap labor, and the U.S.’s great demographics did the heavy lifting. I’m still pondering Andolfatto’s thesis a decade later.

    Engineering a higher nominal GDP growth through a higher structural level of inflation is a proven way to get rid of high levels of debt. That’s exactly how many countries, including the US and the UK, got rid of their debt after World War II.16

    ~ Russell Napier, author of Anatomy of a Bear

    There is too much debt in the world, so they must inflate it away, which they will. That’s the only thing you need to know.17

    ~ Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    Ominously, the inflation is global.18 How else could the dollar be so strong in the Forex markets? Germany, for example, put together back-to-back quarters of 33% rises in producer prices (45% year-over-year in September), which ought scare the hell out of all of us given their history.19 The combined balance sheets of the world’s central banks grew tenfold in less than two decades.20 We have a global debt problem which appears to be getting addressed by global inflation. Much of it comes from the tens of trillions of dollars rammed into the global system during and following the GFC (Great Financial Crisis)21,22 and then trillions more to enable the IFL (Insane Fucking Lockdown) that completely screwed up the supply chains. If the Fed had not promised somebody behind closed doors that they would do their part, the lockdown would not have happened. No Fed, no lockdown. Period. Now you know who to blame.

    Let’s not let that “inflate away debt” idea—Ray Dalio’s “beautiful deleveraging”—go by uncontested. It reminds me of picking yourself up by your bootstraps: have you ever tried to do it? Those who say the world is doing it right now seem unaware that the rate of debt growth is outpacing inflation. Hard to see how that gets you anywhere. The U.S. debt-to-GDP has grown >15% in four years.23

    Wobbling on a weak understanding of global finance, I called out to financial Twitter (fintwit) for examples of countries that inflated away their debt without a deflationary default in the end. (Of course, inflation is a default too but humor me.) I got answers, many from smart guys who thought their answers were obvious but don’t work for me:

    • Weimar Germany? No. They screwed the populace but big sovereign debts were denominated in gold, ultimately leading to WWII.

    • Argentina? Please: They defaulted 6 times in the last century.

    • An obscure answer: Canada in the 1980s and 1990s? They did burn down their debt, but the inflation rate was way too low to account for it; austerity and growth get a lot of the credit.

    • Japan? Nope. Although not imploding yet, their debt-to-GDP is a monster with inflation just beginning to flicker.

    The post-World War II United States for the win! They had double-digit negative rates on sovereign debt, and bondholders got crushed. So that is a valid case, but let us not forget that the U.S. was the only industrial nation standing—a juggernaut—controlling 80% of global GDP. How much post-war debt reduction was inflation and how much was American Exceptionalism (a term coined by Stalin)? Someone smarter than me could do that math.

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to the globalization we have experienced over the last three decades. A large-scale reorientation of supply chains will inherently be inflationary.

    ~ Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock

    There are other problems looming that are ominous. The world is said to be at the precipice of deglobalizing, propelled by a collapse of the global population. Yes. You heard that right. imploding. Deglobalization means that goods and services may no longer be made most efficiently and economically. Former Stratfor demographer, Peter Zeihan, claims population collapse and accompanying deglobalization is already baked into the cake (see Books).24 The conflict in Ukraine has been horrible for inflation since energy prices drive the prices of everything, and one could imagine the conflict accelerating deglobalization. If the conflict gets worse or spreads, I’d say it is time to panic.

    I grew up in France, so I had a good dose of Marx in my education. The first thing Marx teaches you is that revolutions are typically the result of inflation.

    ~ Louis-Vincent Gave, 2021

    The Fed

    We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that, there isn’t…there will be pain.

    ~ Jerome “J-Pain” Powell, being clear

    We’re going to have a good deal of pain and suffering before we can solve these things.

    ~ William McChesney Martin, 1969, and there was pain to come

    The Fed is now in a bind. The drag queen shows at the Eccles Building are over. Forty years of disinflation and jawboning to the point of blowers cramp created a gargantuan recency bias, leaving generations of Americans unfamiliar with the socioeconomic horrors that bad monetary policy can inflict on an economy and society. We are confronting an inflation problem, but what policy tools do we have to defeat it? Recall that when Volcker took on the inflation Balrog, the national debt was 31% of GDP. Now it is more than four times that. Total public and private debt relative to GDP is up almost threefold. Volcker did not have to worry about the systemic risk that his successors at the Fed nurtured to maturity. Since the Fed has been accused of keeping rates “too low for too long” too many times by too many smart guys, they can’t plead ignorance no matter how compelling that defense seems.

    Hiking rates to bring down inflation is not a ‘policy mistake,’ it’s the Fed’s mandate. The true policy mistake was believing that 0% rates, buying billions of mortgage bonds in a housing bubble, & increasing the money supply by 40% in 2 yrs would have no negative consequences.

    ~ Charlie Biello, CEO of Compound Capital Advisors

    Leading up to 2019, the Fed had belatedly started hiking rates and reducing its balance sheet. I thought it was way too late and possibly a mistake to do both concurrently. The repo market started convulsing in late 2019, prompting the Fed to pivot yet again by “going direct”—shoving money straight at the consumers—at the behest of Blackrock in a white paper.1,2,3 A few months later the Fed agreed to put the economy in an induced covid coma, causing much bigger problems. Inflation is now in our DNA as the dreaded “inflation expectations” have taken root. Unlike his predecessors, Powell is in a brawl with fiscal policymakers—way too many tools inside the beltway spending money to slay inflation—with whom Powell has neither control nor allegiance.

    It will turn out to be largely impossible to normalize interest rates without collapsing the economy.

    ~ Edward Chancellor, market historian

    The second fundamental problem is one of legacy and credibility. Many market participants—pivot watchers—see Powell et al. as swamp creatures, controlled by some higher power to mitigate all pain and damage. I see Powell as a guy who wants to be in the pantheon of central bankers alongside Paul Volcker while being compared with the profoundly destructive Arthur Burns by the likes of Roach, Summers, and others.4,5 Bill Gross called them an “ignorant—yes ignorant—Federal Reserve” while making allusions to “Ponzi finance.”6 What path will a narcissist at the peak of his power choose: protector of credibility and legacy or savior of markets and destroyer of currencies? I suspect legacy wins, but it is just a hunch. The markets are currently taking the other side of the bet.

    So far, Jerome Powell looks more like Arthur Burns than Paul Volcker.

    ~ Bill Dudley, former head of the New York Fed

    Before looking at what the Fed might do going forward and with what level of fortitude, let’s look at what prominent Fed detractors have to say in their own words juxtaposed with a few Fed comments for comic relief. Mind you, most of these are not just loose-cannon bloggers.

    The country is suffering from the worst cost-of-living crisis in 42 years. The Fed wasn’t data-dependent and now has sacrificed its credibility.

    ~ Lacy Hunt, Hoisington Investment Management and former deflationist

    This is the fundamental problem…It is a fundamental trap…It’s gonna be really bad. I think we should worry more about deflation. I think that is a huge risk people aren’t thinking about. If the Fed pops this bubble there will be a deflationary spiral…It is going to cause devastation.7

    ~ Mark Spitznagel, Universa Investments, on Dr. Frankenstein and the monster

    There is a whole generation of people who don’t remember inflation. They don’t know what it is, and so I think inflation is a non-existent threat.

    ~ Alice Rivlin, former Fed governor, circa 2017

    The Fed’s latest moves are consistent with a central bank that is continuously scrambling to catch up with realities on the ground. It is the kind of thing that one typically finds in developing countries with weak institutions, not in the issuer of the world’s reserve currency and the custodian of the world’s most sophisticated financial markets.

    ~ Mohamed El-Erian, former PIMCO

    I think we’re in one of those very difficult periods where simply capital preservation is I think the most important thing we can strive for…[The Fed] has inflation on the one hand, slowing growth on the other, and they’re going to be clashing all the time. You can’t think of a worse environment than where we are right now for financial assets…Look at the level of overvaluation we’re in right now in terms of rates and stocks…Sub-two-percent inflation is a much better problem to have than above-two-percent inflation.8

    ~ Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corp.

    Hitting or exceeding 2 percent inflation for a few months does not mean victory. To fully achieve the goal of price stability, we need to see a sustained period of moderately above-target inflation. Only then will the job be complete.9

    ~ Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, in 2020 showing zero understanding of “price stability”

    I don’t feel the pain of inflation anymore. I see prices rising but I have enough…I sometimes balk at the price of things, but I don’t find myself in a space where I have to make tradeoffs because I have enough, and many Americans have enough.10

    ~ Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, in 2022 showing zero understanding of inflation.

    I know from studying history that credit eventually kills all great societies. We have essentially taken out our American Express card and said we are going to have a great time…Perhaps we are simply responding to the same type of cycles that most advanced civilizations fell prey to, whether it was the Romans, sixteenth-century Spain, eighteenth-century France, or nineteenth-century Britain.11

    ~ Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corp.

    The West is now awakening from decades of poor policy. The consequences will appear overwhelming at first. We’ll get through, but that long, painful process has only just begun.12

    ~ Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    I think now we have more credibility, we’re moving faster, we will be able to bring inflation under control sooner and with less disruption to the economy than we had in the ’70s.

    ~ James Bullard, President of the Saint Louis Fed

    Now that the Fed finds itself in such an uncomfortable situation—one largely of its own making—it may be inclined to eschew further rate hikes, particularly given the growing criticism that it is tipping the economy into recession, destroying wealth, and fueling instability. Yet such a course of action would risk repeating the monetary-policy mistake of the 1970s, saddling America and the world with an even longer period of stagflationary trends.

    ~ Mohamed El-Erian, former head of PIMCO

    The Fed’s application of its framework has left it behind the curve in controlling inflation. This, in turn, has made a hard landing virtually inevitable.

    ~ Bill Dudley, former head of the New York Federal Reserve

    Because inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon, the Federal Reserve has the capacity and the responsibility to ensure inflation expectations are firmly anchored at—and not below—our target.

    ~ Lael Brainard, current Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, May 16, 2019

    Staff economists at the Federal Reserve predict…a measured inflation rate of slightly less than 2% in 2022, according to minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting released last Wednesday.

    ~ James Grant, @Grantspub, October 2021

    Valuations have only begun to retreat from record extremes as a decline in the economy begins and at a time when the Fed is not only unable to come to its rescue but is forced to implement policy that will only make things worse.

    ~ Jesse Felder, The Felder Report

    The length of predicted recession—two full years—is extraordinary. Add to that probably the most bearish comment I have ever heard from a Fed bank—“the odds of a hard landing are around 80%” and wow!

    ~ Albert Edwards, Societe General (SocGen)

    We want to see inflation move up to 2%. And we mean that on a sustainable basis. We don’t mean just tap the brakes once. But then we’d also like to see it on track to move moderately above 2% for some time.

    ~ Jerome Powell, April 2021, on pain avoidance

    Possibly the most robust indicator of an impending recession is when the Fed dismisses the inverting yield curve as a predictor of an impending recession.

    ~ Albert Edwards, SocGen

    Since 2010, Central Bankers became active market participants—uneconomic market participants with infinite balance sheets, seeking to distort market mechanisms for pricing of risk. These distortions spread into all financial markets…this easing cycle has no precedent and undoing something so unique will not resemble previous cycles…To return balance sheets to where they were in 2010 at the beginning of QE would mean a sale of $20 trillion in assets, or roughly equivalent to selling the entire $24 trillion in U.S. annual GDP.13

    ~ Lindsay Politi, One River Asset Management

    The Fed doesn’t want to get into the credit allocation business.

    ~ Loretta Mester, Cleveland Fed President, after buying $1.3 trillion of mortgage-backed securities in less than two years

    It could be useful to be able to intervene directly in assets where the prices have a more direct link to spending decisions.

    ~ Janet “Yeltsin” Yellen, on the credit allocation business

    The Fed since Volcker has been pretty clueless and remains so. What has been more remarkable, though, is the persistent confidence…despite the demonstrable ineptness in dealing with asset bubbles.

    ~ Jeremy Grantham, GMO

    We are on the cusp of a rare paradigm shift in interest rates. Such changes take decades—or even generations—to occur. But when they do, the financial implications are profound.

    ~ Nick Giambruno, founder of The Financial Underground

    Their job is to fight inflation. They’ve done a terrible job of it so far.

    ~ Jeff Gundlach, founder of Doubleline Capital, in reference to the Fed

    Underlying inflation appears to still be well anchored at levels consistent with the Fed’s average 2 percent objective, and so—unlike in the Volker and Greenspan eras—no extra monetary restraint is needed to bring trend inflation down.14

    ~ Charles Evans, President of the Chicago Fed

    You know what upsets me the most? People say why do you get so exercised about the Federal Reserve? It’s because the people they screwed going in were the lower and middle-class people, and the people getting screwed on the way out are those same people. They’re getting it on both ends.

    ~ Guy Adami, money manager and CNBC host (a good one)

    We will not allow inflation to rise above 2% or less…We could raise interest rates in 15 minutes if we had to.

    ~ Ben Bernanke, winner of the 2022 Nobel Prize in Economics

    Thank you, President Fisher, I know we put a lot of value on anecdotal reports around this table, and often to great credit. But I do want to urge you not to overweight the macroeconomic opinions of private-sector people who are not trained in economics.

    ~ Ben Bernanke

    The Fed surely put the holdout deflationists—Napier, Hunt, and Shedlock—in their place, although it could still be the end game; David Rosenberg thinks so.15 I am going to disagree with Milton Friedman here: I did not believe inflation is just a monetary problem or government spending problem. It may start that way, but it mutates. Now the Fed has to deal with the Bronteroc. By assuming inflation is always just a monetary phenomenon, market participants stop thinking because the Fed has their backs. I think this model is now wrong.

    I think the Fed absolutely does not get the pain associated with a collapsing bubble.16

    ~ Jeremy Grantham, founder of GMO

    I am not sure there is widespread agreement on the Fed’s goals. Is it to fight inflation, pop an all-time record bubble across all asset classes, euthanize the market zombies,17,18 regain credibility by detonating the Fed put19—the implicit guarantee under the markets—or…wait for it…destroy the Europeans?20 Maybe Powell is channeling the legendary King Canute, showing that even the most omnipotent King can’t stem the tides. No matter what, the bulk of the stock toshers seem unwilling to grasp that the Fed will push rates up until the will to speculate is broken. Michael Every of Rabobank suggests “They are being told clearly they can no longer have their cake, and everyone else’s cake, and eat it and fit in their jeans. And they are ignoring it.”21

    Failure is not an option for Jay Powell. I think they’re going to 4% come hell or high water. Until inflation comes down a lot, the Fed is really a single-mandate central bank.22

    ~ Richard Clarida, former Fed Vice Chair

    Does the Fed have the fortitude? The Bank of England folded fast to save their pension system.23 Some thought the Fed couldn’t lift rates above 1%.24 This is no longer 14 days to flatten the yield curve. They are up against a wall:

    • “The Fed has never before started a rate hiking cycle when inflation was already 7.9%.”25

    • An anonymous (but prominent) commentator with the pseudonym Mr. Skin noted how many times Powell has referred to “real interest rates” and said he wanted them “over +1%.” They are camped at about –10% right now, so that is an unveiled threat to “unwind unknown globs of leverage.”

    • Roach sees the “Fed funds rate up 10% from here.”26 Powell insisted that a neutral policy stance is “not a place to pause or stop” and that the Fed would embrace “a restrictive policy stance for some time.”

    • Fed President Loretta Mester warned that they would raise rates “even in a recession.”

    I don’t think the Fed is gonna let up just because the economy starts popping a few rivets. There isn’t enough blood in the streets for a Theranos lab test. Before this is over, there will be bloated corpses, shattered dreams, and milk cartons with Cathie Wood’s face.

    I am still waiting for [Powell] to act boldly—‘boldly’ means he has to shock the market. If you want to change someone’s view, if you want to change someone’s action, you can’t slap them on the hand, you have to hit them in the face.

    ~ Henry Kauffman, legend

    The Federal Reserve appears to be braced and wants participants in the market to understand they will stay the course…the rough landing odds are very high…Monetary policy is currently on the right course but current right course will have to persevere.”

    ~ Lacy Hunt

    What about other central banks? It appears that they have been cast adrift while we try to solve our domestic problems. This could become a monetary Monroe Doctrine. The strengthening dollar is wreaking havoc on global credit markets. The Fed sent a few currency swaps to alleviate a few currencies getting pegged by the strong dollar, but my sympathies are not high. We have a $2 quadrillion notional value derivatives market that has overstayed its welcome in the world of wealth creation, serving only to finance finance. The Swiss National Bank stress really leaves me cold since they were printing francs to buy US equities. When in Econ 101 did you guys learn about that? Fuck ’em.

    We now understand better how little we understand about inflation.

    ~ Jerome Powell

    Broken Markets

    My money remains on the likelihood that this is the early stages of a profound bear market in assets. Populism in the west has a long way to go. QE has undermined savings, and now populism will undermine the price mechanism. We are at the start of a 25-year cycle, so get used to it.

    ~ Crispin Odey, Odey Asset Management and a notorious bear

    I am suspecting that the broken YIR clock is finally right. What we will find out is whether it blows up your house at high noon. The presumption that bailouts by the Fed would always be forthcoming and would always work has allowed investors to buy speculative non-GAAP tech garbage. That model may be tested. We are looking at some events that have not been seen for many years (decades). For starters, we are coming off a frothy high in the equity markets said to be the biggest bubble of them all. This is occurring concurrently with a serious, if not potentially disastrous, downturn in the bond market. Recall that a 60:40 portfolio in the 2007–09 bear market was cushioned by the bond market. The risk parity cult—those striving to bring risks and rewards of stocks and bonds to parity by leveraging their bond portfolios—may have overshot their mark. We also haven’t seen inflation levels like this for four decades. To top it off, we are not coming off a euphoric high. Investors may have done well in their portfolios, but all other geopolitical and social pressures have left us plebes in sour moods. Entering a secular bear market in stocks and bonds pissed off at the World is not a solid foundation to begin a long slog.

    When I look back at the bull market that we’ve had in financial assets really starting in 1982. All the factors that created that boom not only have stopped, they’ve reversed…We are in deep trouble.

    ~ Stan Druckenmiller

    With the Fed boxed in by rapidly rising but still historically low rates and serious inflation, it is akin to a visit to your oncologist. What comes next? You get your affairs in order. The luminary Murray Stahl of Horizon Kinetics has a way with words. He notes that “the Age of Monetary Policy is over.” Channeling some of Murray’s thoughts blended with a few of my own, we may be at the end of a unique economic cycle. In the early ‘80s, the Russians were starved for capital and began flooding the world with dirt-cheap commodities. The Chinese were starved for capital—quite literally China had $38,000 of foreign reserves in its banking system as it exited its self-exile1—so they began flooding the market with dirt-cheap labor. The US long-bond rates began a four-decade trek from 16% to essentially zero. Meanwhile, the boomer demographic not only hit the workforce, but they brought their wives with them in large numbers. I have argued generously that buybacks are a reach for yield given the low returns even on fortress balance sheets, but debt-fueled price pumping nicely propelled executive stock option valuations too. These tailwinds will not repeat over the next four decades. Globalization is fraying at the edges and, according to Zeihan, will be ripped apart in a global demographic collapse.2

    Prior droughts have been due to rising inflation and/or high market valuation. The U.S. is now at risk from both… U.S. returns are at now risk from both the prospect of higher inflation AND the headwind to returns from high starting-point valuations.

    ~ Gerard Minack, Minack Advisors and former Morgan Stanley economist

    And, by the way, my definition of a correction is that it adjusts asset values and investors’ attitudes significantly. When was our last correction? March 2020? Not a chance. What attitudes got corrected? How about 2007–09? Not in my book. Investors were rewarded for their tenacity. The last real correction was 1967–81. Equity investors lost 70% of their equity gains inflation corrected. You could not give equities away even though, by all metrics, they were dirt cheap, but why take a risk on equities after 14 years of bludgeoning?

    A simple reversion to trend, if it happened tomorrow, would require the S&P 500 Index to fall back below 2,000, the prospect of an even greater decline is a frightening one, indeed.

    ~ Jesse Felder, The Felder Report

    Every year, I take a swipe at valuations. Two years ago I went at the egregiously overpriced FAANGs and related tech garbage. Moreover, the FAANGs et al. have an enormous collective market cap compared to the dot-coms that caused pain.3 Although the FAANGs et al. humiliated me in 2021 by continuing their moonshot, their two-year returns are slightly sobering and exonerating:

    Table. Two-year total returns of the FAANGs et al. critiqued in 2020

    • Amazon                        –43%

    • Apple                            +9%

    • Facebook*                     –56%

    • Genius Brands              –59%

    • Google                          +7%

    • Microsoft                      +6%

    • Netflix                          –46%

    • Nvidia                           +26%

    • Salesforce                     –31%

    • Shopify                         –62%

    • Tesla                             –30%

    • Zoom                            –81%

    *Metaverse

    Today, only finance is profitable, while production is in crisis.

    ~ Thierry Meyssan, French journalist

    At the end of 2021, an analysis of 25 valuation metrics showed the markets to be 120–150% above historical fair value.5,6I obsessed over 1994 as the year that valuations left Earth’s gravitational field. The markets have been steadily climbing the wall of worry residing above historic fair value with occasional pauses that refresh since then, propelled by (a) a bond rout intervention in 1994 that never really stopped and (b) the rapid rise of passive index investing. The curve in the following has no mathematical basis, but I think it captures the problem and the 1994 launch date nicely:

    Find a metric that makes you more optimistic—be my guest—but it would be perilous to ignore the 25 I laid out in detail last year.7 With the S&P doing an orderly swan dive of 20% as of 12/16/22, many investors are looking to buy the dips. Do you really think unwinding <2 years of froth is all we are going to get? If I told you two years ago that you wouldn’t make any gains through 2022, would you have soiled your adult diapers? Of course not. It is not time to yell, “Cut me.” It is time to pull out James Stack’s 2013 chart showing what the Bear does to the Bull:

    Alas, the removal of such froth is only phase one of a secular bear market. Phase two rides in on the back of the recession, accompanied by lost revenues, mean reversion of what are currently record profit margins, and the disappearance of credit-constrained share buybacks. Phase three is when the blood, cadavers, broken bones, and shattered teeth litter the Street. Only then have we reached the Charles Manson helter-skelter market. The rotting corpses of malinvestments—the Enrons, Tycos, Worldcoms, Lehmanns, and heaven knows how many banks—will be stinking up the joint. Images of the 1921 Russian famine come to mind. In his 2022 book, “The Price of Time”, Edward Chancellor reminds us that, without exception, when rates have been artificially suppressed, the story has ended in tragedy—every single time.

    Markets are up 26% in six months.

    ~ Nikkei Bulls, 1/1/1991

    Contrary to lessons learned from Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Powell, and “What-Ever-It-Takes” Draghi, the markets can be uninvestable. Take the Nikkei. If you were in it in ’89 your capital gains are still underwater even withoutcorrecting for inflation. It took over 30 years to get above the ’89 high on a total return basis (including dividends but not fees, taxes, and inflation.)8 If you weren’t in it but averaged down starting in 1989, it took two decades to break even. As the guest speaker in one of George Nobel’s Twitter spaces, I argued the Nikkei was uninvestable.9 The quick counter was that you short it. First, shorting is speculating not investing, and, second, you would be slaughtered because it took too long. The U.S. markets in 1967–81 were also widow makers.

    Speculation is a zero-sum game in which speculators vie with each other for profits that they, in the aggregate, cannot achieve.

    ~ T. A. Hieronymus, University of Illinois Professor of Agricultural Economics

    It is time for speculators to refresh their memories that two and two add up to four, not eight or ten.10

    ~ Time Magazine, 1967

    The big European markets including the DAX, FTSE, and CAC have been treading water off their highs of more than two decades ago. Maybe they are finally cheap, but be careful about grading on a curve:

    When Murray Stahl says, “The age of monetary policy is over,” a corollary might be that the Age of the V-Bounce is over. If I am right, buying opportunities will be met with even better ones for a very long time. Headline-grabbing crashes do not correct investor attitudes; attitudes are corrected by markets grinding investors to dust over years. Somebody will make money—Taleb’s Fooled by Randomness says this—but it’s unlikely to be you or me.

    Warren “Never Bet Against America” Buffett noted that a majority of the top 20 companies in the world 30 years ago were Japanese, and none are in the top 6 companies today.11 Warren then asks rhetorically if you have figured out which will be the next top 20 and, implicitly, domiciled in which continent? On an upbeat note, Felder says “valuations of US large-cap value stocks relative to growth stocks are now 2.8 standard deviations cheaper than the long-term mean.” First, that is relative to growth stocks, and as Hussman has noted repeatedly The Bear eats anything and everything: all valuation deciles drop. A P/E of 10 might sound cheap, but there is no immutable law of markets that says it can’t drop to five.

    I believe we are in the biggest bear market in my life. This is just the second inning. A lot more to come…There’s no other country on earth that has staked so much of its net wealth in stocks. But we are at a very big peak of complacency.12

    ~ David Wright, 78-year-old co-founder of Sierra Investment Management

    Over the last 40 years the capital gain on the S&P grew about 6% annualized inflation-corrected (but not including dividends, taxes, and fees, which are nearly self-canceling.) Meanwhile, the U.S. GDP grew 3.5% annually (including an implicit inflation correction). Greater than 3%—half of those 6% annualized gains—are valuation expansions. Can we extend that potentially mean-regressing disparity over the next 40 years? Flip the argument and ponder what happens if we lose 3.5% annually over the next 40 years owing to contracting valuations. You make nothing but dividends minus fees and tax-loss writeoffs. You will make nothing, zero, nada. I will yet again post this chart from Ron Griess (The Chart Store) with blue lines brought to you by ChemDraw. Those blue lines represent 40–75 years of treading water off of market tops. There is a shot clock in basketball but not in investing.

    And here is another repeat chart. With few exceptions, charts showing market performance without inflation corrections are misleading if not worthless. You can mentally adjust for inflation using the Rule of 72,13 but why can’t analysts just do it as a courtesy? Since the CPI has long since gone into disrepute, how do you correct for inflation when nobody believes the numbers? This plot that I got from Ron Griess and can find nowhere else shows the S&P market performance vs the M2 money supply, which was readily available until the Fed stopped reporting it a few years ago:

    Very odd. Is it possible that we have witnessed zero real capital gains over the most fabulous century in history? Are dividends (minus fees and taxes, of course) your only source of real gain? But…but…but the dividends are half of what they were in the first half of the 20th century! Indeed, that is consistent with my conclusion that equity markets are 100% overvalued. It’s arithmetic.

    I think that we’ve had 15 years of Disneyland that has destroyed the economic structure. Think about it: no interest rates. So anyone who’s today 40 years old has no experience in markets. Zero. They don’t know what time-value of money is.

    ~ Nassim Taleb, 9/15/22

    I’ve given it my best shot to euthanize your hopes and dreams. Before covering a couple more topics lets pause to “bullet” a few nuggets that crossed my path:

    • Bank of America announced zero down payment, zero closing cost mortgages for Black and Hispanic first-time homebuyers14 in their new Tuskegee Mortgage Program.

    • Overpayment for cars during the lockdown will likely cause a car variant of jingle mail as the prices drop well below the loan value. The loans during the lockdown were ultra-loose, but Banks are now shrinking the loan durations as default risks rise. The big PPP loans were used to buy Lamborghinis; strategic defaults and repos are spiking.15

    • The municipal pension funds are still grossly underfunded, gutting their budgets and using leverage to keep up, turning the cities into shitholes.

    • According to a Blackrock exec, ERISA rules say that your fiduciary responsibility precludes overlaying social agendas.16 The ESG craze was ill-advised and illegal. Well, there was too much money to be made by pushing ESG governance into industries and asset classes, so the authorities fixed that.17 It remains ill-advised.

    • The chief financial officer of troubled Blood Bath and Beyond (BBY) jumped to his death.18 The ultimate insult would be a posthumous boost in the share price, but it remains 96% off its all-time high. (I thought about buying this years ago but dodged that bullet.)

    • Pension expert Ted Seidle says the state pension underfunding is without precedent and not caused by low contributions or low returns but rather mismanagement and corruption by Wall Street (overcharging). Seidle has personally raked in over $100 million on whistleblower awards while boomers slip into poverty.19

    • Robinhood, the brokerage firm of meme stock investors, is 80% off its 2021 IPO. The whole thing was a scam.

    • Wisdom Tree’s 3x short nickel fund blew up. Some speculators were wiped out as nickel rose 250% in two days triggered by the Rooskies in Ukraine.20 Chinese nickel titan Tsingshan Holding Group had the same problem but got bailed out by JPM for reasons unknown to me;21 the exchange just canceled the losing trades. The Big Guys seldom lose. Hedge fund Elliot Associates is scrambling in the courts to get $500 million of negated trades back.22

    • SNAP—the most onomatopoeic stock in the markets—dropped 88% off its 2021 high, placing it uncomfortably below its 2017 IPO price.

    • European banks appear to be in serious trouble, with both Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank (DB) trading at $3 and $10, respectively. DB is off 92% stretched over 26 years—26 years. CS is off only 78% over that same timescale but 94% off its ’07 high.

    • Cathy Wood is still in the game, and still hawking her wares on CNBC.

    • Good news: The SPAC craze—funds with cash but no ideas akin to the South Seas Bubble—seems to be waning as have non-fungible tokens (NFTs) that are basically autographed images from the internet).

    Roughly 40% of the US equity market can only survive essentially with new buyers entering the market because they’re not cashflow generating themselves. And that’s near a historic high, that’s like basically right in line with ’99, 2000.23

    ~ Greg Jansen, Bridgewater

    With rates on the rise, GAAP earnings on the decline, and the global economy flirting with recession, the Walking Dead will be roaming until they run out of credit. There is no formal definition of what a zombie company is but, according to economists at the Federal Reserve, they are “companies that have too fucking much debt and pathetic earnings that can’t pay the interest on their loans without taking on more debt or doing handjobs behind the dumpster at Wendy’s.”24 In short, their cash flows don’t cover their interest payments. Luminaries claim 20–40% of the S&P 500 are zombies—that’s 100–200 destitute mega companies. But more optimistic estimates assert that only 20% of the Russell 2000 are in the zombie spiral, which surely should have a higher percentage than the S&P since they are mostly story stocks. Despite lists of Zombies, I have had no luck locating a list of the S&P 500 zombies.25 Stephany Pomboy reminded me that it is a moving target. It does not require a vivid imagination to believe that they are proliferating in a rising rate environment. There will be plenty of debt-for-equity swaps (liquidations) as distressed asset investors pick at the carcasses.

    Prepare to see an absolute ONSLAUGHT of corp defaults and downgrades. The myth of corp B/S strength is about to be shattered spectacularly.

    ~ Stephanie Pomboy, 90% invested in precious metals excluding house and cash

    In response to a podcast in which I begged for help, a woman named “Alice” (@Alice91453) ran the numbers and gave me a spreadsheet showing the cash flow and debt for every company in the S&P 500.26 Alice’s list shows for each company the interest rates on their current debt that will turn them into the walking dead. Of course, debt will vary for each but you can begin to imagine the carnage as sovereign debts and rising corporate debt spreads start exacting their toll.

    If you can’t afford rent that’s your fault for living in a city. Maybe if you lived in an open field or perhaps some kind of bog.

    ~ @InternetHippo

    I don’t wish to spend much time and effort on real estate, but somehow we managed to blow another bubble. It does not seem as frothy as the last—the 125% NIJA loans and condo-flipping TV shows seem subdued—but that may be because the purchases are by permanent capital (investors). Whether current valuations and location of the debt pose a systemic risk is beyond my pay scale, but I am not sure you want to be exposed as the largest landlords are pulling back on purchases to “ease away from the shifting housing market.”27 You want to be out of the splash zone when the likes of Blackrock start liquidating their positions because previous razor-thin profits boosted by huge leverage are no longer supported by near-zero interest rates. The world will be a better place when these predators are pushed back into their lairs.28

    After the total value of all cryptocurrencies reached an apex of just under $3 trillion last November – of which Bitcoin accounted for roughly $1.3 trillion – a rolling crash of epic proportions has wiped out more than two-thirds of that digital wealth. For crypto, however, there is no central bank standing by willing to bail out those who are caught up in the contagion.

    ~ Doomberg

    Cryptocurrencies. I would be remiss if I did not pay at least lip service to Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies: it is a multi-trillion-dollar asset class that could cause unimaginable pleasure or pain. Despite gargantuan efforts from the hodlers, I have not been converted. I may someday, but it will take a Battle of Bastards between the hodlers against the State with the hodlers staggering off the battlefield dazed but alive. Microstrategy, a former tech stock-turned bitcoin hedge fund, got brutalized as Bitcoin dove from $60,000 to $15,000. Surprisingly, Berkshire-Hathaway lost billions by lending to Three Arrows Capital, a crypto hedge fund that collapsed. The Orifice of Omaha once again shows he does not just buy great companies. He is a stock jobber and, on a bad day, an asset tosher.

    I have said all along the crypto assets are highly speculative, very risky assets. My very humble assessment is that it is worth nothing. It is based on nothing, there is no underlying assets to act as an anchor of safety.

    ~ Christine Lagarde, spokesperson for the State offering her very humble assessment

    Bitcoin’s problem may have been triggered by a number of calamities in the crypto underworld where “shitcoins” reside unsupervised. The $60 billion dollar network that markets LUNA tokens collapsed, sending $60 billion of perceived wealth from whence it came.29 Stablecoins are like poker chips at the casino except you cannot turn them back in for dollars if murky grifters decide to squander the dollars while you speculated. The stablecoin Terra collapsed in minutes once its LUNA reserves collapsed.30 Christine Lagarde called for a crackdown—first shot of the Battle of the Bastards?—because they are “based on nothing”, and she understands the world of unbacked currencies.31 Maybe she is too old; crypto seems to be a generational thing:

    Terra’s collapse brought attention to other larger and assumedly more “stable” stablecoins. Although stablecoin Tether is priced at parity—one Tether equals one dollar—it is said to be fractionally reserved (technically insolvent),32 leading many to believe Tether will follow Terra down the blockdrain. Taibbi did an exposé on Circle Internet Financial, creators of the second largest stablecoin, USDC, for running a Ponzi scheme.33 What would happen to the crypto market if the stablecoins went bits up is unclear even to the devout hodlers. They seem confident, but, like in so many markets, confidence is everything and capricious.

    Crypto is basically a ponzi scheme, it’s a way for really really really smart people to make money off of really smart people.

    ~ @MacroTalkGuy

    The crypto index had a particularly bad day on June 13th, dropping 22%. But don’t count the bitcoin hodlers out. Lacking central banks to bail them out, they have already had more than their fair share of bungee jumps. Bitcoin’s privacy got Ted Cruz’s endorsement (FWIW),34 while Edward Snowden suggests that there is nothing private about cryptos.35 Reports of the FBI retrieving stolen bitcoins suggest that Ed is correct. Mark Jeftovic, a particularly astute hodler, notes that crypto assets held in accounts are subject to bankruptcy settlements.36 I watch from the cheap seats with interest.

    Luna fell 99% from $100 to $1. Then it fell another 99% from $1 to 1 cent. An important lesson here: if an asset falls 99%, it can still fall another 99%.

    ~ @fintwit_news

    And that is all she wrote. Wait. What? Nothing about the collapse of FTX? Cool your jets. That is a story of corrupt geopolitics, not crypto.

    Energy

    From deep within my conspiratorial mind emerged a theory about these contemporaneous supply constraints. No. Let’s call it a narrative. If I was an Overlord and needed to sell a reluctant world on nuclear power, rather than patiently waiting for the plebes to get the memo, I would engineer a fossil fuel crisis—a cataclysmic one—to usher in the New Nuclear Age. I can imagine everybody squealing, “We need nuclear power to save us!” It worked for the vaccines. Mark my words—it’s coming.1

    ~ Me, YIR 2021

    All things considered, that is looking like a prophetic nugget of wisdom. Yet again, however, we face another topic from the Year in Transition in which our forward visibility is like peering through mashed potatoes. We will return to energy considerations in the sections on the War in Ukraine, but I have scrounged up other nuggets worth a ponder. For starters, I see no evidence that fossil fuel production will ramp up to fill any voids. The regulators make us a capricious consumer. We have psychologically damaged an industry that needs to project at least 10 years out to invest in big projects with political moods that change overnight and a political tide that is decidedly going out not coming in. Meanwhile, our proxy war with the swing supplier (Russia), who is cozying up to the other swing supplier (Saudi Arabia), is ominous. Even without the geopolitics, the enthusiasm of Aramco’s CEO seems muted:

    Many of us have been insisting for years that if investments in oil and gas continued to fall, global supply growth would lag behind demand, impacting markets, the global economy, and people’s lives. The increases this year are too little, too late, and too short-term. These are the real causes of this state of energy insecurity: under-investment in oil and gas; alternatives not ready; and no backup plan. But you would not know that from the response so far…when the global economy recovers, we can expect demand to rebound further, eliminating the little spare oil production capacity out there. And by the time the world wakes up to these blind spots, it may be too late to change course. And at least this crisis has finally convinced people that we need a more credible energy transition plan.2

    ~ CEO of Aramco

    Politics. Biden tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) intended for national security to juice the midterm elections for the democrats. It seems irresponsible.4 Whether these are sales of real oil or only speculative tweaking of the futures market has been questioned.5 He also threatened Big Oil with a special tax on their profits, which, I hasten to add, are non-existent when the price of oil drops and the producers continue to meet demand anyway.6 Take away the profit incentive: Way to go Brandon. At least you stemmed the red tide.

    Cornelius Vanderbilt made a profit of 14 cents from every barrel of flour shipped over his railroads. His efficiency lowered the price of flour for consumers. Did Vanderbilt keep any of you down by saving you $2.75 on a barrel of flour, while he was making 14 cents?7

    ~ Edward Atkinson, Cotton magnate, 1886, to a group of workers

    At the state level, California governor Gavin Newsom keeps making friends and influencing people on his Road to the Whitehouse by implementing bad ideas that are popular among the valley girls and boys. In his ascent of Mount Stupid, Gruesome Newsom banned natural-gas-powered water heaters and furnaces in residential dwellings by 2030.8 He also went after Valero for “price gouging”, the always popular war cry that is anathema to free markets and price discovery. Valero’s counter-attack did not beat around the bush.9 Gavin—may I call you Gavin?—wanted to impose a punitive tax on gasoline that he hoped would not be noticed by the consumers at the pump.10 The effects of California’s policies are self-evident:

    Peak stupidity was attained when Gavin decided that he would phase out gas-powered vehicles altogether the same week that California power providers urged consumers not to overburden the grid when charging their cars.

    Shale producers have been unable to secure financing in the new ESG grift. The Biden administration, after marinating in schadenfreude, found shortages and price hikes appalling now that there is a war and demanded they open some spigot…somewhere…just do it.11

    Much of the social history of the Western world, over the past three decades, has been a history of replacing what worked with what sounded good.

    ~ Thomas Sowell

    Electric Vehicles. As the car makers of the world chase Tesla into the future of gas-free vehicles, one can’t help but wonder whether the grid will be ready, the bugs worked out, and the supplies for battery production located. I am told EVs are a hoot to drive. Toyota seems to stand alone in putting the brakes on this,12,13 suggesting that the world is not ready yet:

    • Here is a nice analysis of the cost and energy demands of electric cars—a bean count of the hydrocarbons needed to make the cars and batteries.14 The Hofferian green fanatics tend to overlook the energetic costs of hauling 500,000 pounds of ore from mile-deep open-pit mines in a faraway land to make one EV while marveling at the absence of a tailpipe.

    • The 2023 Chevy Bolt EV retails at $26,595. After an estimated 70,000 miles, the replacement battery is projected to cost $29,842 based on today’s price.15 At least you can charge it on your VISA card.

    • Imagine the chaos of a million electric cars powering down while fleeing a hurricane zone. Once you clean up the carcasses, there remains cars to charge or tow rather than just pouring a can of gas in the tank. (Actually, my mechanic told me submersion of a car—a computer with wheels—after my wife drove one into a swamp.)

    • Senators are pushing a bill to electrify the military vehicle fleet and retrofit all submarines with screen doors.16

    We should focus on the issue of electric school buses. I was proud to introduce the first piece of legislation to electrify our nation’s fleet of school buses.

    ~ Kamala Harris

    Shortages. On the international scene, Europe looks like it could be heating homes by burning tires this winter as the War in Ukraine puts energy out of most people’s price range and possibly unattainable at any price. After Germany dumped their politically incorrect nuclear plants, they discovered that alternative energies aren’t worth a shit. With the Russian gas cut off thanks to the U.S. blowing up the Nord Stream II Pipeline, Europe is facing a harsh winter.17 Deforesting the countryside for firewood is a step back to the neolithic era.18 Of course, the German greens illustrate the power of the new strains of weed by supporting coal over nuclear energy.19

    Well, at least Germany can ship energy up the Rhine River. Scratch that. The water levels are too low this year.20 The energy-savvy Doomberg (pseudonym for a guy with serious credentials in his former career) says even if Germans fill their storage to the brim it won’t cover their needs. The Saker agrees.21 Energy-consuming smokestack industries are planning for shutdowns.22 Four years ago Trump warned Germany not to depend on Russia while the German delegation overtly snickered.23 When the winter is over, we will find out who gets the last laugh in this Year in Transition. As GWB might say, “The Germans have no word for ‘schadenfreud.’”24

    German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder pushed Germany away from clean and efficient nuclear power and into the dependence of Russia’s gas. It’s hard to believe he is now Chairman of Russia’s Rosneft and was added to Gazprom’s board 20 days before Putin’s invasion.

    ~ Kyle Bass (@jkylebass), CIO of Hayman Capital

    The rest of the Europeans are not happy cloggers either. Belgian think tank fellow Simone Tagliapietra astutely noted, “We have no interest in energy prices causing instability in member states — it would be a recipe for disaster.”25 Since Europe is a long and glorious history of peace and tranquility, this is no big deal, right? Let me fire a few bullets of my own:

    • France is about to nationalize the last 14% of its major state-owned energy company as half of their reactors are being taken offline. France has flipped from an energy exporter to an importer into a tight market.26

    • British Petroleum owned a 20% stake in Rosneft before the west cut off its nose to spite its face and disowned Russian energy companies. Although their profits will hold up owing to higher prices production will not.27

    • Diesel shortages in the U.S. are jacking up prices to ship all those goods delivered from Amazon.com as well as diverting diesel exports to Europe.28 Rumors are that the shortage could last at least a year. Why?

    • Other U.S. energy supplies are looking unreliable as well.29 Maybe we can squeegee out the bottom of the SPR in a pinch.

    Many think we will subsidize our way to renewables, but we won’t, for inherently physical reasons. Sunlight & wind are too energy-dilute. Solar/wind projects need ~300x more land, 300% more copper, and 700% more rare earths than fossil fuels, making them prohibitively expensive.30

    ~ Michael Shellenberger, prominent environmentalist

    Renewable Energies. Before you get all teary-eyed about replacing fossil fuels with low-energy-density alternatives, let’s look at the renewables. I remind you that if we take fossil fuels offline and fail to fill the void, we will suffer a catastrophic drop in the quality and quantity of life. Bill Gates and his vaccine-happy eugenics buddies spewing scary chestnuts about culling the herd might be passing out invites to the Donner Holiday Party. Albert Bartlett’s lectures on our failure to understand exponential functions beautifully illustrates the limits to growth.31

    I’ll repeat what I have written extensively about climate change starting in 2019:32 I do not believe the climate narrative and am highly doubtful that we can pull off the transition to clean energy without nukes. Let’s just bullet a few more observations—throw a few more logs on the fire:

    • Solar power enthusiasts should note that solar panels function optimally around 25 °C become less efficient as they heat up. Maybe this idea of covering Arizona with panels is linear thinking in a non-linear world.33

    • Here is a nice tutorial on why alternative energies have barely moved the needle and how the environmentally destructive mining industry will have to ramp up 1000%.34 This analysis claims they can’t even work theoretically.35

    • Australia is the largest coal producer in the world but has gone green by legislating coal-powered electricity out of existence. Their grid and energy markets are unstable without a reliable energy supply.36

    • Art Berman, whose analyses garner widespread respect, says that oil has a 1000-fold advantage over solar when one considers the labor force required to produce the same amount of energy.37 Think of solar as a government jobs program.

    Perhaps this entire section is drivel from a peak oiler suffering from confirmation bias, but to accept the alternative narratives without careful analysis is reckless.

    There is not the slightest indication that [nuclear energy] will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.

    ~ Albert Einstein, 1932

    Nukes. I’ve concluded that we’ve all got to grow a pair and embrace nuclear power. The climate changers who support nuclear to solve the perceived CO2 problem are at least consistent. Those who wish to reduce CO­2 without nukes are Hofferian fanatics lacking a clue. Whether you are a neophyte or semi-literate energy buff, I recommend Justin Huhn’s (@uraniuminsider) two-part tutorial on Wealthion covering all facets of nuclear energy.38 He covers the brilliance of second-generation nukes (SMRs), the red herring of waste disposal, sourcing uranium (including from discarded mine tailings), the distant (currently unreachable) promise of thorium and fusion, and investment opportunities. Recall that I entered the uranium investment world in late 2020—a dollar and a dream.

    The case for nuclear is quite strong:

    • Coal plants release 100-times more ura­nium and tho­rium into the environment than do the world’s 440 nu­clear re­ac­tors.39

    • Japan experienced Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Fukushima, yet they are embracing nuclear power once again.40

    • China is supplying the world with solar panels and windmills to pay for the two dozen nuclear power plants under construction and the hundred more in the planning stages.41 Why don’t they just keep the solar panels and windmills? Hmmm…

    • Prime Minister Boris “BoJo” Johnson “went nuclear” before leaving office, promising $810 million seed money for the Sizewell C nuclear power project… “It always looks relatively expensive to build and to run, but look at what’s happening today, look at the results of Putin’s war…I say go nuclear, and go large.” The head-scratcher is that the $24 billion project will be funded by a French- and Chinese-owned energy company.42

    Collapse of FTX

    I’ve had a bad month.

    ~ Sam Bankman-Fried

    The FTX crypto exchange collapse is not a crypto story. There are overviews that probe the darkness,1,2,3 but I suspect the unassailable truth will prove elusive because the roots of this story burrow deeply into geopolitics.

    The World’s second-largest crypto exchange, FTX was domiciled in the Bahamas whereas the largest (Binance) is domiciled in China, so your spidey sense should already be tingling. Referred to as the “Gang of Kids”, the FTX team and its partner-in-crime, hedge fund Alameda, seem to have come from nowhere—zero-to-60 faster than a Tesla. Well, this year they went from 60-to-zero, like a Tesla hitting a bridge abutment. In the process, they depleted the wealth of some serious investors including the likes of Tom Brady, Sequoia Capital, and Softbank’s Masayoshi Son, the Mr. Miyagi of scandals and wealth destruction.4 (FTX is a $100 million drop in the bucket of Masayoshi’s $5 billion personal deficit.)

    At the center is a wiz-kid named Sam Bankman-Fried, now known as Sam Bankman-Fraud (SBF), a boy genius from MIT—aren’t they all? —touted as the second coming of Jesus Christ (Warren Buffett). Heads up SBF: you are sitting too close to Bill Clinton.)

    SBF participated in a New York Times-sponsored panel discussion after the collapse.5 That collection of participants certainly gets my neurons firing.

    Mysterious Successes. Nobody seems to know who bankrolled SBF. The FTX in-house cryptocurrency (FTT) was pumped to lofty levels, which is trivial to do even without real buyers, but then monetized into real dollar-denominated wealth. Serious money and well-orchestrated moral support began rolling in. It has all the trappings of a campaign run by an elite public relations firm, painting Sam as both a monetary genius and uber-altruist.6 The gang at FTX proved to be quite the philanthropists, giving money to non-profits to save the world from the evils of climate change,7 global pandemics,8 the anti-Trump Lincoln Project,9 and rising authoritarians in Russia.10 Sam produced galaxy-class performative virtue signaling.11 His cultish worldview is called “effective altruism” although “altruistic sociopathy” seems more appropriate. A letter signed by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly inducting the Farmington State Bank recently purchased by SBF’s team into the Federal Reserve System—the Big Leagues—shows their gravitas.12

    The Players. Before getting into the weeds about what these Jolt-Cola-Swilling codeheads were really doing, let’s just gander at some of the key players.

    Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF): Despite his image as an MIT-graduated genius and all-around good guy, SBF is said to be a “spoiled, sadistic, hedonistic, and ruthlessly dishonest bully of a manchild”13 with a penchant for drug-fueled orgies.14 He should have gone into politics.

    Caroline Ellison: She is the CEO of FTX sister company (hedge fund) Alameda Research and ex-girlfriend of SBF who looks like a recent middle-school graduate (and might wish to try some shampoo). Caroline is said to be a once-geeky brilliant high school student who must have crossed over to the darkside while at Stanford, eventually meeting SBF at the trading firm Jane Street. The one interview I watched made her look like a total nitwit.15

    Joseph Bankman: Father of Sam, not to be confused with Son of Sam, is a Stanford professor with tax law experience who has lobbied Congress on behalf of hedge funds.16 He brings game to the group. He was present when Sam got picked up by the police in the Bahamas.

    Gabe Bankman-Fried: This illustrious gene pool includes brother Gabe, who, as a former Jane Street Trader, founded Guardian Against Pandemics, a seemingly underfunded super PAC supporting leftist organizations to facilitate pandemic response.17,18 The geopolitical implications of covid suggest a deeper dive may prove fruitful. The plot thickener is that he has lobbied Congress and has links to DNC donors. He worked for Democrat Congressman Sean Casten of Illinois, who is on the committee that oversees cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings (ICOs).19

    Barbara Bankman-Fried: Mom of Sam is not only Hillary Clinton’s lawyer but also co-founder of Mind the Gap, a fundraising organization that pushed $20 million to the DNC for the 2020 election and helped promote mail-in voting.20

    Linda Fried: Linda, otherwise known as Aunt Linda, is on the Global Agenda Council on Aging and is a member of Klaus Schwab’s WEF,21 which may have cemented FTX’s ties with the WEF.

    Glenn Ellison: Father of Caroline is obviously brilliant in his role as a professor of economics at the top-ranked MIT econ department.22 Critically, he also worked for Gary Gensler (vide infra).

    Gary Gensler: As the Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary has critical connections that would have been useful to Sam Bankman-Fried, the son of his former employee, Joseph Bankman. Like SBF’s mother, Gensler has ties to the Clinton Foundation and as Hillary’s political advisor.23

    Sam Trabucco: He has a reputation for being a great gambler and game player, getting started professionally at the Susquehanna International Group (SIG), the world’s largest equity options trading firm. As a big picture guy, Sam must have understood the troubles at FTX and Alameda.

    Amy Wu: Amy is a cross-town Harvard grad. As the FTX Head of Ventures & Commercial at FTX Ventures, Amy is yet another Clinton Foundation trainee.24

    Mark Wetjen: FTX’s head of Policy and Regulation was Obama’s Commissioner of Commodity Futures Trading and acting chair of the CFTC following Gary Gensler’s departure.25

    You should be sensing a pattern. FTX is a geopolitically connected organization that moves (launders) money. Some of their actions were just simple graft and corruption. SBF’s parents bought $121 million in Bahamian real estate over the past two years with funds provided by FTX.26 SBF’s affiliated Alameda Research appears to have been front-running crypto announcements before listing them on FTX.27 Nothing crooked here. Some believe they were behind the crypto collapses mentioned in Broken Markets. Alameda extended loans to SBF ($1 billion) and two affiliates who received $543 million and $55 million.28

    While this partnership was touted as a way to assist Ukraine in cashing out crypto donations for ammunition and humanitarian aid, we have serious concerns that the Ukrainian government may have invested portions of the nearly $66 billion of U.S. economic assistance into FTX to keep Democrats in power – and keep the money coming in.29

    ~ Republican lawmakers writing to Antony Blinken

    The DNC landed an estimated $69 million of visible donations from FTX leadership according to Forbes.30 There is no way to know if the quoted numbers are accurate or a tip of the iceberg. A video of Maxine Waters blowing SBF a kiss would be embarrassing if any of these sociopaths were capable of embarrassment.31 The RNC is not completely off the hook. Several Republicans received gifts, including Mitch McConnell.32 You may have heard that Mitch gave no financial support to Kari Lake in the Arizona elections. Meanwhile, FTX was supporting Kari Lake’s opponent, Katie Hobbs, who “won” in a highly contested election that was under the strict supervision of…Katie Hobbs.33 One suspects that FTX’s financial problems were buried until after the elections.

    Crypto assets proved extremely helpful in facilitation of funding flows to Ukrainian citizens and soldiers, as well as in raising awareness and engaging people worldwide.34

    ~ Oleksandr Bornyakov, an official at the Ukraine digital ministry

    Ukraine and FTX partnered up on a crypto-based donation website to allow contributions to Ukraine’s war effort with the proceeds going to the National Bank of Ukraine.35 US “military aid” also made it to the Clintonskyy Fund—OK. I made that up—and was invested in FTT cryptocoin by Kiev.36,37 A Ukraine-based money laundering scheme is discussed away from polite company.38 Here is how it works: Biden sends money to Ukraine, Ukraine uses FTX to send money back to the DNC, and the DNC ensures “10% for the Big Guy.” In a surreal twist, a hodler-based Twitter Spaces running 24/7 tracking breaking news about SBF and FTX took a break to have a guest speaker—Hunter Biden.39 A friend and punk, Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv), brought up the laptop and was immediately banished.40 Makes you wonder where the veiled purchasers of Hunter’s over-priced art were domiciled. All roads lead to Ukraine.

    Covid is both a medical and geopolitical narrative. FTX funded research into “repurpose therapy”—finding old drugs that solve new problems—for the pandemic. So far so good. And, yet, somehow they never supported hydroxychloroquine or Ivermectin.41 FTX sponsored the Together Trial, which was bought-and-paid-for crap designed to discredit Ivermectin.42 The fact-checkers call this hooey, which means it’s probably true. “Guarding Against Pandemics”, a group that lobbies for government money to prevent pandemics, was founded by Gabe Bankman-Fried (GBF). It’s yet another grift. SBF and his team wanted a mere $30 billion out of the Biden administration.43

    The Collapse. So was the collapse of FTX to become BRE-FTX—sorry: a gold joke—like every other Ponzi scheme, topple from its inability to bring in more cash? I see little evidence cash flow was a problem. I think many must have known it was a scam, but my buddy Marc Cohodes known for his slash-and-burn short-selling skills, is getting credit for calling bullshit during a Hedgeye podcast in which he tore FTX a new one in his unique style.44 Binance tried to save FTX but then backed out, and that was the fatal headshot. When The Wolfman (John Ray III) was called in to clean up the post-collapse wreckage, he found no risk control, not even a real corporate structure.45 He had helped cleanup Enron and said FTX was much worse. There are thousands of crypto buffs out there, and they are now a pack of cadaver dogs looking for the corpses.

    Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here.

    ~ John Ray III

    It was obvious within a day or two that this was not a financial scandal, prompting the following tweet:

    That was a good guess, but unbeknownst to me it had already started. A small handful of players in the crypto world took unplanned trips into the Great Blockchain Beyond.46,47,48,49,50 (I don’t know the total.) One was frantically declaring he was about to be framed.51 He should have been so lucky. Recall those FTX orgies within the FTX team? I’m getting that faint pizza smell. One hodler was sounding the alarm about pedophile rings, the CIA, and the Mossad—very Epsteinish.52He literally washed up on a beach. This plotline goes very deep and dark; it is not suitable for children or the faint-of-heart53 and is unclear if it will contribute to the Clinton Body Count.

    The FTX founder pledged to donate billions. His firm’s swift collapse wiped out his wealth and ambitious philanthropic endeavors.

    ~ Wall Street Journal, intentionally missing the point

    The Media. Displaying the authenticity of a stepmom on Pornhub, the media showed how deep the rot is by soft-peddling the story.54 The headlines read like a Leave It to Beaver episode in which The Beave yet again got himself into a bind. What have those silly gooses gotten into now? Sam said that he doesn’t remember comingling the funds, sounds implausibly clueless for a boy genius. He was selling the sweet, innocent schtick pretty hard:

    It seems odd that a Madoff-scale scammer is walking the streets. On the other hand, Zerohedge pointed out that there are 6,300 documented corporate frauds that led to fines and no jail time.55 Only suckers go to jail. It is bizarre that he was still Tweeting, doing interviews with Andrew Ross Sorkin and Clinton crony George Stephanopoulos,56,57,58 and fielding ridiculous questions with ridiculous answers on Twitter Spaces.59 Is faux openness under the advice of legal counsel, or is he simply that confident that he cannot be touched? Let me tell you something, Sam: you could be written out of this plot very quickly. Timmy’s life expectancy would have been squat had Lassie not been there to save his ass. Who is saving yours? In the end, inconvenient people will be silenced, and this story will just go away like all the others. Fuck ‘em.

    Internet trolls are scapegoating Sam, but we should celebrate entrepreneurs even when they fail. There’s nothing illegal about taking big risks.60

    ~ Andrew Ross Sorkin, street walker defending this generation’s Bernie Madoff

    Conclusion. So where does this take us? Some suspect it is a hitjob on Bitcoin to usher in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The authorities began discussions of regulation almost immediately. It smacks of global money laundering looks like the story. We also have absolutely no idea of the depth and breadth of this malignant tumor. We can only see the surface, not the roots. The headline losses in the tens of billions may not reflect the total flows passing through FTX and Ukraine.

    Lest we forget, some of those were savings of Joe and Jane Sixpack stolen and given to the Friends of the DNC and Global Elite. Retail hodlers knowingly took on risk, but not that risk. The Biden administration was asked about giving the millions back to help investors recoup their losses and his press agent ducked the question. The DNC keeps plumbing new lows. Just as the boy genius was scheduled to testify to Congress to the consternation of the DNC, he got scooped up by Bahamian authorities and put in their DNC-sponsored witness protection program. Sam Bankman-Epstein (SBE) is now in good hands.

    News Nuggets

    I run across news stories that capture my imagination, make me cringe, or elicit a chuckle. (I will never say “LOL.”) Usually, they are categorized, but I am just mashing them together into a Hungarian goulash of human folly. Others worthy of more detailed analysis show up in later sections. Some are not for the faint of heart, so if you have a personality disorder or you are a member of the fanatical wing of the democratic party you might want to skip right to…well…somebody else’s blog…maybe one pushing climate change.

    • Kyle Rittenhouse is suing the hell out of everybody who smeared him for his self-defense in the Kenosha, WI riots.1

    • A high school kid got to sub for Pearl Jam’s drummer when the drummer got sick.2

    • Nancy Pelosi’s husband, Paul, seems to have a lively social life with some lingering personal issues. Soon after a DUI with some suspicious details being left largely undiscussed, he managed to get himself in a tryst with a dude named David. The scramble to change the narrative ignored a window broken from the inside, a police audio saying that they seemed to know each other, and BLM posters hung in the abode of this putative QAnon assailant.3 A prominent NBC reporter suggested the story was complex and got suspended.4 Let’s posit that Paul’s a perv with a drinking problem: who cares? Protecting Paul’s image is one thing, but trying to flip it to a midterm election talking point about white supremacy is pathological. As Joseph Welch said to Joe McCarthy: “Have you no sense of decency?”

    • Ghislaine “Jizz” Maxwell got 20 years for sex trafficking under-aged girls…to nobody. Makes you wonder why the rampant trafficking of children over the Southern border never leads to the conviction of any pervs. These kids can’t be cheap. Balenciaga! Speaking of pervs, it appears as though we got the flight logs to the Lolita Express, although confirming this is tough. Its veracity is questionable because Bill Clinton is only on there 28 times.5 Prince Andrew settled out of court with 17-year-old Virginia Giuffree.6 The Epstein-Maxwell story has largely been shoved back down the memory hole, enabling racketeers and politically powerful pedophiles to soil the world in perpetuity.

    • We named one of our new warships the USS Fallujah.7 WTF?

    • As we mourned the loss of the Queen of England it is easy to overlook the challenges the new King faces living without Mum.

    • Anne Heche died in a flaming car crash. She was said to be working on a documentary about Jeffrey Epstein, but, of course, the fact-checkers disagree.8 Neither Michael Hastings9,10 nor Seth Rich11 were available for comment.

    • A former Clinton advisor and link to Epstein hung himself from a tree and then shot himself in the chest twice with a shotgun (or vice versa). There was no investigation.12 The Clinton Body Count—deaths proximate to the Clinton Machine that do not involve bombing the shit outta some foreign land and have been fact-checked more than any story in history—exceeds 160.13 Jimmy Carter didn’t get close to that number even if you include the entire US military under his command.

    • Gender activists are pressuring anthropologists to stop referring to human remains as ‘Male’ Or ‘Female’.14 People with Neanderthal roots—the red-heads15 pejoratively referred to as “carrot tops”—have been calling for reparations.

    For the record I made women from men before it was cool.

    ~ God ‏@TheTweetOfGod

    • California wingnuts got agitated when “militia groups” showed up to help people evacuate during the forest fires.16 Sounds like the Cajun Navy.17

    • Alex Jones lost $50 million in a court case for pushing hard (too far?) on the Sandy Hook story,18 but not before calling out the Clintons and Alex Epstein in court, creating quite a meme.19 He then lost again, with damages approaching a billion dollars. I might be able to see past the first amendment issues to find damages, but a billion bucks? I bet a court will undo most of that. The free speech issues will linger. Robbie Parker was not available for comment.

    • George Jetson was born on 7/31/22.20

    • CNN launched a pay-to-play streaming service called CNN+. The 10,000 subscribers fell just a tad short of their projected 29 million,21 causing an NFL-quality punt following the $300 million fumble.22 Rumor must have leaked that Brian “The Potato” Stelter, Chris Cuomo, and John Harwood would be leaving without “letting the door hit them in their asses.”23 Technically, Cuomo is not gone but was demoted to the mailroom. A 2018 clip surfaced of Ted Koppel explaining to the Potato that he basically sucks and would be nothing without Trump.24

    • Two years ago, I set out to understand China’s role in global politics (see “Books”). China is completely opaque. I’ve got nothing. This troubles me, like when the kids are upstairs, and they are quiet.

    • Georgia Meloni, far-right firebrand, was elected prime minister of Italy. The European power structure painted her as a fascist, but even her opponent, Matteo Renzi, said, “She is my rival, and we will continue to fight each other, but the idea that now there is a risk of fascism in Italy is absolutely fake news.”25 The curdling of European leaders’ blood can only be understood by listening to her tear into Macron26,27 and the European power structure 28,29 with the savagery rarely seen outside divorce courts.30,31 Get ready for subtitles, but turn up the volume on her speeches. Then listen to this imitation of her and try not to laugh.32

    We will see the result of the vote in Italy. If things go in a difficult direction — and I’ve spoken about Hungary and Poland — we have the tools.33

    ~ Ursula Von der Leyen, President of the EU

    • Sam Brinton, the “gender fluid” Biden appointee responsible for disposal of nuclear waste and clearly a breakthrough appointment for the LGBTQ community, kept stealing jewelry from luggage at the airport.34 Jackie Robinson played his historically profound role with greater grace and dignity.

    • A fast-food restaurant customer pulled an axe out of his bag and did some physical damage to the establishment,35giving diners a story to tell their grandchildren and CNN something to talk about other than Paul Pelosi and fake laptops. If you search “brawls at [fill in the blank]” you will find this is routine. The media obsessed over his release soon thereafter, not noticing that the laws left the judge no choice.”36 As an aside, I watched the video and saw a guy getting repeatedly punched before doing his Bernie Goetz imitation.37 I hope the court mandates a switch to decaf for the mischievous lad.

    • The Onion filed a Supreme Court brief in support of a man who was arrested and prosecuted for making fun of police on social media. True to form, it is written satirically.38,39

    • The COO of the fake meat company, Beyond Meat, was arrested for biting a man’s nose. Isn’t a nose, technically speaking, meat?40

    • Elon Musk was on fire during his hostile raid on Twitter, threatening to buy Coke and put the cocaine back in,41calling out the absence of Epstein’s contacts,42 and chiding Hillary for possibly overlooking some nagging details in her defense of Paul “the Perve” Pelosi, sending the fact-checkers overdrive.43 The Left went batshit when he uttered the phrase “all lives matter.” And then he bought Twitter. This story is playing out too fast to follow right now, but it is clear that the Twitter Stasi guided by the DNC were as oppressive as everybody already knew.44 It is a year in transition.

    Elon could actually control what people think…that is our job.

    ~ Mika Brzezinsky, MSNBC

    • Tennis star, Novak Djokovic, set a new high-water mark in sports by being banned for not doing drugs.45 Djokovic says he will skip all events that require vaccination.46

    • Loose cannon and Shankster Phil Michaelson had some unfiltered remarks about the new Saudi-backed golf tour offering huge paydays. “They’re scary motherf— to get involved with. We know they killed Khashoggi and have a horrible record on human rights. They execute people over there for being gay.”47 Loose lips sink ships. After some further thought and maybe some guidance, he asked rhetorically, “Why would I even consider it? Because this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reshape how the PGA Tour operates.”

    • An 80:1 odds horse won the Kentucky Derby.48

    • A 29-year-old trans woman dominated a girl’s skateboarding competition, whipping the asses of 10–16 year olds. It is a beautiful story of inclusion, in which the evil forces of agism were battled and defeated.48

    • Congratulations to transgender swimmer Lea Thomas who, after getting beaten by Yale’s transgender swimmer,49 went on to win gold at the NCAA swimming championships. It is said that the silver medalists are the least happy of the three medalists. Truer words were never spoken with pictures telling the story.

    • University officials announced Leah’s teammates were not available for comment.50 I would also like to give the women’s athletic establishment a silver medal for all the words that were never spoken in defense of women’s sports. Alas, y’all failed to meet the minimum requirement for participation trophies.

    • Amy Coney Barrett’s performance required to get the Supreme Court nod in 2021 was near perfection until she signed a $425,000 book deal.51 Other justices had written memoirs, but doing so before adjudicating her first case leaves a bad taste in my mouth. The left condemned it because they hate the Roe v. Wade call.52

    • A chess champion has been accused of cheating. Since saying, “Hey! Look over there!” and moving a piece won’t work, he cheated by receiving new-era Morse Code from an electronic device jammed up his ass.53 The scandal caused quite a buzz. As to who was sending the signals is unclear, but my bet is on Big Blue.

    • Climate activists—Hoffer’s Truest Believers—began defacing some of history’s great artwork or gluing themselves to paintings.54,55 Buy a dozen tasers and charge museum goers 20 bucks a pop; you could buy a da Vinci with the proceeds. For the five who glued themselves to the floor in a Porsche dealership, just lock the doors and turn out the lights.56 As to those blocking traffic at crowded intersections, I would think studded snow tires would send the right message.

    • Santa Claus’s tomb (Saint Nicholas’s, actually) was found under a church in Turkey.57

    • Will Smith smacked Chris Rock at the Academy Awards. Using Wall Street parlance, that called the top in his career. Minutes later he won the academy award, right before being hurled into the Crack of Doom by peers who are paid millions to simulate violence and sexual assault for entertainment. The whole thing looked staged to me (and others)—they were friends—but Rock never came to his defense. He should have even if it was unstaged. That is what a friend would do.

    • The average Academy Awards nominee spends $1.5 million on their outfit.58 (I presume this price is for the women’s gowns.) It is ironic given the content of their acceptance speeches.

    • My colleague, John McMurry, and author of the largest-selling organic chemistry textbook in the world, outfoxed the publishing world by releasing his 10th and final edition for free in memory of his recently departed son.59,60

    • With a throw from deep right field, Matt Walsh released a documentary entitled, “What is a Woman?”61 He somehow managed to ignite a bench-clearing brawl that brought the transgender movement into view.62 Opponents to the movement,63 non-statistically populated with parents, started throwing punches at the gender benders for pushing too far too fast. Bill Maher jumped in,64 suggesting it is radical to do surgery on a kid struggling with whether to be a cowboy or princess. So did the more credible but less humorous UK’s National Health Service.65 A video surfaced of a woman at Vanderbilt University’s Medical Center salivating at a podium about the enormous profit from what Walsh calls “castrations.”66 (More profitable than normal surgeries?) Soon, Vanderbilt and other medical centers with clinics that specialize in “gender-affirming hysterectomies” and related interventions on minors67,68 were frantically doing radical website reconstructive surgeries, removing critical parts with hack saws. (Coda: the guy who invented lobotomies won the Nobel Prize.69) And like clockwork, Governor Gavin Newsom declared California a sanctuary state for minors interested in such surgeries without parental permission.70 He wants to be your next president. If a doc did that to my kid without my permission, I would do some gender-adjusting surgery too.

    • Governor DeSantis shipped several dozen immigrants to a self-described “sanctuary” at Martha’s Vineyard. I thought it was funnier than hell, but the DNC political machine had a cow. Get over it: the Biden administration had been flying them around the country covertly for two years.71 The Vineyardians declared that the sanctuary thing was a theoretical construct and had the immigrants’ sorry asses sent back to the mainland 34 hours later.

    • Maitland Jones, a former Princeton tenured professor and current NYU adjunct organic chemistry professor, was fired after students petitioned to have him removed because his class was “bitchin’ hard”, causing a high attrition rate.72 It could be true—he was old guard in a field populated with demanding researchers—and high attrition certainly poses a problem. He was also 84, so he may not have been at the top of his game. The unreported part of the story that I believe is irrelevant but still is at least ironic, is that the president of NYU, Andy Hamilton (a friend), was denied tenure at Princeton while Maitland was on the faculty. I am confident the firing had nothing to do with Andy because the decision was surely made at a low—sub-faculty—levels, and Andy does not have a vindictive bone in his body. But, as Paul Harvey would say, “And now you know the rest of the story.”

    • Mount Royal University in Canada canceled ice hockey intramurals owing to inadequate “equity, diversity, and inclusion.”73 What were those hosers thinking, eh?

    • Ilya Shapiro, Executive Director and Senior Lecturer Georgetown Law School, beat the University in a free-speech suit and then resigned noting, “You’ve made it impossible for me to fulfill my duties of my appointed post.”74

    • The CEO of Kraken, a crypto tech company, offered employees who felt “triggered by controversial ideas” to accept a severance package.75 Kraken’s updated mission statement suggests, “the ideal Krakenite is thick-skinned and well-intentioned.” Krakenite sure sounds like space-age durability.

    • Paypal decided it would be cool to deduct up to $2,500 from the accounts of those providing misinformation on key issues.76 The uproar caused them to back-peddle on the idea,77 but that bell cannot be unrung. Marc Jeftovic does a fine deep-dive on the authoritarian underpinnings.78 Paypal then reinstated the policy.79

    • Psychologists say that victimhood virtue signalers score high in the Dark Triad traits—Machiavellianism, Narcissism, and Psychopathy.80,81

    • Netflix employee protests over Dave Chappelle’s stand-up comedy show “The Closer,” led management to tell them to quit the censorship crap or take a hike. “If you’d find it hard to support our content breadth, Netflix may not be the best place for you.” By the way, Netflix is hemhorraging money now that lockdowns are over and expensive content creation is back in vogue.82

    • Only three percent of Latinos support the term “LatineX”,83 a term that was popular among Martha’s Vinyardians.

    • The Minneapolis Teachers Union now requires schools to lay off or rehire employees based on race.84 Despite a more garish tone, this sounds like affirmative action that society long ago negotiated as a viable path. The Supreme Court is about to take this on. Cue the street protests in 3…2…1…

    • The American Academy of Pediatrics discourages schools from sending kids with head lice home because of “significant stigma and stress.”85 Maybe it would help if the teachers quit calling them Bug Heads and making allusions to Men in Black.

    • People of Color are now called People of the Global Majority.86 The rest of us are now referred to as “minorities.”

    • Female prisoners in a New Jersey prison got knocked up by inmates identifying as women. Free room, board, and unlimited sex sounds better than life on the Streets of San Francisco.87

    • Alec Baldwin shot one of his coworkers, which is more than the January 6th insurrectionists shot. We all know this because it obstructs senseless babbling about laptops. A picture below shows Alec owns a pillow embroidered with, “Shoot first and ask questions afterword” available from MyPillow.com.

    • BLM laundered billions into who the hell knows.88,89 Some of it was traced to an expensive house for one of the founders.90It is said that every movement becomes a business and ends as a racket.

    • I’m gonna touch a third rail that I swore I would never touch. There is a palpable rising anti-Semitism. I suspect it is arising from pro-Palestinian groups. Who knows. My point is that the media is showing evidence they will be hanging it on white supremacists. Take it with a grain of salt.

    • A woman posting as @libsoftictoc rose to Twitter fame by simply posting some of the quirkier videos posted on TicToc—statements in their own words. I suspect fakes might be a popular sport now much the way Penthouse Letters emanated from Harvard dorms. There is a wide-open niche for @conservativesoftictoc. I would start with this hysterical crime scene video.91 Until then, expect violent and well-funded counterattacks to continue unabated.

    • Somebody compiled a montage of all the times in which Joe Rogan failed to discretely use the euphemistic “N-word.”92 (I am not gonna swat that fly.) He survived the attacks and even got a $100 million offer to move to Rumble for unrestrained speech.93 Progressives would never make such a mistake. Just yankin’ your chain: Of course they did!94

    • Teachers at Oak Park and River Forest High School are being told to adjust their grades to account for “the skin color or ethnicity of its students.”95 The basic protocol will use paint chips from Ace Hardware, and economists will be called in for “seasonal adjustments.” Speaking of which, Governor Newsom wants to give a $223,000 of reparations to Californians with slave roots.96 One could imagine people moving to California—the Land of Bad Ideas—albeit temporarily.

    • The mayor of San Francisco announced $6.5 million plan to end homelessness in the city, but only for gender non-conforming individuals.97 $6.5 million wouldn’t dent Peoria’s homeless gender non-conforming problem.

    • A middle school librarian in relentlessly newsworthy Loudoun County, VA defended pro-prostitution books noting that many of the school’s 11- to 13-year-old students are sex workers.98 The problem is deeper than y’all thought. That teacher is grounded in a harsh reality.

    • Drag queen shows for kids were all the rage. They appear to focus on target-rich opportunities (schools), but even Pizza Hut got into the game.99 The Pizza connection again? Those drag queen shows for toddlers is some very sick shit.

    • Speaking of Pizza, Matt Taibbi released former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey’s email: Jack@0.pizza.100 One could call this faux pas, “pizzagate.” The “0” could be important.

    It seems like we are doing everything we can to break everything possible.

    ~ Jordan Peterson

    • A UCLA anthropology professor scrubbed the last of the rational thinkers from academia announcing, “I’m a professor, retiring at 62 because the Woke takeover of higher education has ruined academic life,” referring to how the anthropology department at UCLA had mutated since the early 2000s.101

    Roe v. Wade

    The human population would probably be way less than a thousand, if ejaculation were not usually accompanied by an orgasm.

    ~ Mokokoma Mokhonoana

    News flash: The Roe versus Wade decision that bypassed the need to codify the right to an abortion was overturned. I am pro-choice with an admittedly vague dotted line that defines when the nugget of cells develops civil rights. I also understand why a truce is likely to be metastable at best. When does life begin? The devout pro-lifers think that life begins at “just the tip” or “a lurid wink” while the activist-left push it out past the four trimesters. Those who have raised teenagers think the 60th trimester should be open for discussion. I listened intensely to a Lex Fridman-Ben Shapiro interview to give one of the sharpest pro-life advocates a shot at converting me.1 He did not, but Ben made interesting points, including that the only bright-line demarcation is at conception. It becomes increasingly blurry after that. I can accept that ambiguity. If you have strong, clear views on the topic, you can skip this part. I wrote it to see where it would go.

    Jesus never once talked about abortion. Never once.

    ~ Joe Scarborough2 (@JoeMSNBC)

    I think we can all agree Joe has never once said anything intelligent. Never once. Moving along, I am convinced of the claims that the Court had overstepped its jurisdiction to resolve a thorny social issue.3,4 The court were social engineers for Roe v. Wade just like they were being economists when they overrode the gold standard in 1933. (For an excellent discussion of the Court’s history and the evolution of the Constitution, check out the audio short course in The Great Courses Series entitled, “The Bill of Rights.”5) I wonder if efforts to codify abortion when democrats were in power failed to emerge out of complacency or more complex lurking issues. Abortion rights may be more bipartisan than politicians would lead us to believe because, as Michael Jordan would say,6 daughters of Republicans get knocked up too.

    Claiming that it was nearly impossible to amend the Constitution, Progressives advocated that judges “interpret” the Constitutional limits out of the way…When the people wanted the Constitution amended, it was amended. When the elites wanted the Constitution amended, but the people did not, that is called democracy.7

    ~ Thomas Sowell, former Marxist turned free-market economist

    The states’ rights argument that the people of Mississippi might wish to live under a different moral code than Californians has merit. The US is said to already have abortion laws that are the most liberal in the world.8 You may recall a few years back when North Carolina activists were pushing for abortions up to birth (implicitly even later).9 I’ve heard claims that the choice of the life of the fetus or the mom is specious—that is what C-sections are for—but I’m not a doctor, and there are most definitely life-threatening pregnancies. I can also imagine scenarios in which the docs are looking at a truly pathetic failed late-stage pregnancy that cannot possibly end well and make the call. But that was not what was being codified. We are assured that nobody would ever abort a perfectly viable child within minutes of crawling out of the birth canal, but the proposed statutes (North Carolina, for example) appeared to not preclude it. I think activists were doing what activists do: taking the cause to the extreme. I could also imagine a newborn taking one look at the world and crawling right back up the birth canal. As a pro-choice advocate, if you make me draw the line at one of the two extremes—never or up to birth—I view the latter as infanticide and would choose the former. Please don’t make me choose.

    To the extent this betrayal of the confidences of the Court was intended to undermine the integrity of our operations, it will not succeed…I have directed the Marshal of the Court to launch an investigation into the source of the leak.10

    ~ Chief Justice John G. Roberts. Jr.

    Then there is the leak to the press days before the decision was announced. Of course, it was denounced by the court as inexcusable, but leaks serve a purpose. There are possible suspects beyond the butler with the candlestick:

    • An irate clerk: Mind you, clerks are not clerical but rather elite lawyers heading off to spectacular careers.

    • A left-leaning justice: That field narrows quickly. It could have been an attempt to motivate the court to back off. This seems improbable given that there is no way that the court wasn’t braced for the backlash anyway.

    • A right-leaning Justice: Fence-sitting justices could be pushed into making an ironic tough choice of kowtowing to the masses or defending the sanctity of the court. This is akin to blowing up a pipeline to end negotiations.

    • Bipartisan justices: Anticipating the shit storm, a leak would burn off some steam before reality struck—14 days to flatten the mob.

    • Dark forces: Maybe the court has already been swallowed by the Deep State and is stirring up discontent like every other wanker in the upper echelon of power.11  Catherine Austin Fitts suggested British, Israeli, or U.S. intelligence leaked it. Is it about Roe or yet another attempt to tear apart the country? (I do not subscribe to this model, although maybe out of self-preservation.)

    Many bills with varying intent were set to trigger in the event of such a ruling. By example, Colorado immediately passed a bill allowing abortion up until birth.12 Protesters did their analog of January 6th, albeit less raucous, by protesting at the Courthouse and the justices’ houses. I would argue the optics were bad, but that speech is a protected right by those in the mob’s sights:

    It is a prized American privilege to speak one’s mind, although not always with perfect good taste, on all public institutions, and this opportunity is to be afforded for ‘vigorous advocacy’ no less than ‘abstract discussion…In light of our “profound national commitment to the principle that debate on public issues shall be uninhibited, robust, and wide-open, and that it may well include vehement, caustic, and sometimes unpleasantly sharp attacks on government and public officials.13

    ~ New York Times v. Sullivan

    The craziness started right on cue. The circus-like atmosphere included AOC pretending to be handcuffed as she was escorted away from the Supreme Court. (I still think she is not that stupid and the handcuffs elicit fantasies at so many levels.) Politicians and real people—an important distinction—screaming thoughtless threats are also protected. Threats against the justices were left up on Twitter,14 in staggering contrast to their handling of other hot-button issues. While threats break Twitter rules, they are a form of protected speech. The Supreme Court ruled that a threat against the life of LBJ was free speech because it lacked credibility.15 While the politicians have the right to pander, We the People ought to have the right to jam socks in their mouths.

    I wonder how long we’re going to have these institutions at the rate we’re undermining them, and then I wonder when they’re gone or they are destabilized, what we’ll have as a country—and I don’t think that the prospects are good if we continue to lose them.

    ~ Clarence Thomas, Supreme Court Justice

    The media played its role in the drama. The neo-Stalinist social media platform, YouTube, began removing misinformation about abortion (whatever that is) to ensure that the lively debate would be ill-informed.16 Vivid clips of late-stage abortions were fine for some reason.17 A pro-choice twitter feed (MeidasTouch) emerged and had a million followers and a blue checkmark before the week was over.18 Bill Burr’s hilarious anti-abortion routine using a half-baked-cake theme—”It wasn’t a cake yet but I was gonna eat that fuckin’ cake”—got a second wind.19 CNN met my expectations yet again by announcing that the biggest threat of the Roe v Wade decision was “violence from far-right groups.”20 Yeah. That makes sense, said nobody. Companies began offering all-expense paid trips to pro-abortion states to keep their employees off maternity leave.21,22 Walmart’s support23 was inspired by the People of Walmart24 website, which clearly illustrates that breeding is not always a good idea. As an aside, I think both sides of the debate could, in theory, support tree tube tying, which would cut back on abortions and unwanted pregnancies—a pragmatic move in an overcrowded world. Neither, however, seems likely to support my alternative to eugenics.

    While Rome burned, the Supreme Court continued to fiddle on:

    • The Supreme Court supported a high school football coach’s First Amendment rights to pray at the 50-yard line during football games; his payers could choose whether to join in.25 Hard to envision a left-leaning court would have ruled this way.

    • The Court torched a Texas law that tried to prevent social media platforms from de-platforming contributors for political reasons.26 I would say the court has not kept up with the digital era. There are likely to be some big decisions in our future.

    • When Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson was asked by Sen. Marsha Blackburn, “Can you provide a definition for the word woman?” Judge Brown responded, “I can’t. Not in this context. I’m not a biologist.”27 I will unexpectedly take her side; an elite judge ought to see the complexity and the trap. If you have an XXY triple chromosome count are you a woman or a man? Matt Walsh probably would be less charitable. (Just to creep my fellow whackjobs out, Judge Jackson had cut her teeth on the Pizzagate case.28) The elite news outlet, Politico, captured the historic importance of Judge Brown’s appointment:

    In case you think the court will now be less contentious, they are said to be heading for a ruling that could ban affirmative action. And with that, I will stop unifying the nation by pissing off everybody on both sides and move along.

    Truckers

    Talking with people who think differently is how we challenge ourselves…. challenging ourselves is how we grow.

    ~ Justin Trudeau

    Regardless of the fact that we are attacking your fundamental rights or limiting your fundamental rights and the Charter says that is wrong, we are still going to go ahead and do it. It’s basically a loophole that allows the majority to override the fundamental rights of the minority.

    ~ Justin Trudeau, February 14, 2022

    Canada was slow to lighten up on vaccine mandates. Three million vaccine-hesitant holdouts lingered as the stats showed 90% of new covid deaths in Canada were vaccinated.1 Mandated vaccines every 9 months for the foreseeable future2 got the engines of the Canadian truckers revving. Deciding they had enough of Trudeau’s guff, the truckers took their rigs to Ottawa to protest the vaccine mandates and lockdowns. As the Freedom Convoy reached a record-shattering 70 km long, Canadians set off fireworks and celebrated from the bridge overpasses. Canadian Spring became the most civilized protest in history.,3

    They cleaned and policed the streets. Rumors of Nazi or Confederate flags were utter nonsense. (Trudeau’s film crew staged one photo-op before the truckers took it down.) To us Yanks to the south this was a feel-good story. US truckers began to mobilize for a convoy to Washington, DC,4 but it was late and they smelled the January 6th playbook—detect the blitz, let them rush in, and throw a screen pass.

    What is driving this movement is a very small, organized group that is driven by an ideology to overthrow the government through whatever means they may wish to use.

    ~ Marco Mendicino, Canada’s Public Safety Minister5

    Taking a cue from the covid authoritarians in Australia, Trudeau invoked the Emergency Measures Act (formerly known as the War Measures Act).6 The move was opposed by the premiers of Alberta, Manitoba, Quebec, and Saskatchewan, but a WEF globalist pawn7 does what he is told. Given that vaccine mandates were disappearing globally, what was at issue was not vaccines per se but the risk of a big win by the Deplorables. The truckers are global. The State had to win.

    • They began arresting truckers.8 The organizers of the “Freedom Convoy”—not unlike the January 6 clampdown—were hit with onerous charges.9

    • Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister, authorized financial institutions “to temporarily cease providing financial services” and “review their relationships with anyone involved in the blockade.”10 She also claimed that the ‘temporary’ financial oppressions to demonize the “violent extremists” were to become permanent and that trucker’s licenses would be suspended.11 I will return to PBF—Permanent Bitch Face—below.

    Under the Emergencies Act, I’ve asked our solicitor and our city manager, “how can we keep the tow trucks and the campers and the vans and everything else that we’ve confiscated, and sell those pieces of equipment to help recoup some of the costs that our taxpayers are absorbing?”

    ~ Mayor of Ottawa

    • Telephone and wireless services were shut down, forcing stores to accept cash, a commodity not easily obtained by the truckers.

    • Royal Canadian Mounted Police disabled trucks pre-emptively in case they would be used for the protest.

    • Canadian broadcasters began lying about foreign actors backing the truckers.

    • Towing companies were required to begin towing trucks; compliance was spotty.

    • Authorities threatened to euthanize the dogs that the truckers frequently brought along if the truckers were taken into custody and no other provisions were made.15 I imagine volunteer rescues would have been legion. I would take in at least a dozen.

    • Bank accounts of supporters and donors were shut down.16

    • $20 million was raised for the truckers via GoFundMe and GoSendMe. An Ontario court froze GoFundMe while GoSendMe was hacked.17 GoFuckYourselves requires no funds and is fully staffed.

    I think if you are a member of a pro-Trump movement who’s donating hundreds of thousands of dollars and millions of dollars to this kind of thing, you ought to be worried.18,19

    ~ David Lametti, Canada’s Justice Minister, threatening southern neighbors

    • The communications director for the Ontario ministry donated $100 and got fired, having gotten caught by a hack.20

    • Declaring the truckers and their supporters to be terrorists got no backing from Canada’s chief financial intelligence agency21

    • Chrystia Freeland noted that, “The names of both individuals and entities as well as crypto wallets have been shared by the RCMP with financial institutions and accounts have been frozen and more accounts will be frozen.”22,23 PBF repulses me.

    Should the United States sanction Canada for human rights abuses?

    ~ Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch

    Canadian authorities became what French Canadians call “douchebags”. To understand why, you have to look under the hood of the leaders.

    The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way, and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.

    ~ Frank Zappa

    Canada is filled with Ukrainians that populated the country after World War II, presumably some under a program akin to but much bigger than Operation Paperclip.24 Chrystia Freeland began her career as a Ukraine-based news correspondent, speaking fluent Ukrainian and Russian. Like a disturbing number of Canadian leaders,25 she is a member of the WEF26,27and comes from a strong lineage of Ukrainian Nazis beginning with a grandfather who was a Nazi propagandist.28,29,30She is said to be a Banderite, which is the Ukrainian group that explicitly celebrates their Ukrainian Nazi past on the birthday of Stepan Bandera.31 She supported the “Revolution of Dignity” in Kyiv—the Banderites’ coup—and has shepherded nearly $900 million to Ukraine in 2022 as part of a long history of supporting Ukraine.32 Jim Rickards says she is in the queue—that is French Canadian for “in line”—to become Secretary General of NATO. My opinion of NATO’s leadership is clarified in the sections on the U.S.-Russian proxy war in Ukraine, but it is not a flattering story. Chrystia has the credentials to be a bad person:

    Let’s now talk about Trudeau, referred to as a “creepy fucking dictator” by Joe Rogan. I find him less dangerous than Freeland because he seems like an expendable twit. His roots go back to his legal father, former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. Pierre had profound ties to Mao and Castro back when none of the cool kids supported those guys.33

    The level of admiration I actually have for China because their basic dictatorship is allowing them to actually turn their economy around on a dime and to say that we need to go green fast, invest in solar.

    ~ Justin Trudeau

    The acorn may not have fallen far from the tree, or did it? The internet is filled with rumors that Justin’s mother was a free-sex hippy. Here is a picture of the Trudeaus with Castro. That is an unusually adoring look on her face.

    I learned a general rule from college: A hand on the back is tight on the personal space but vague. A hand on the chest means you are gonna score.

    Now, I ask what the internet has been asking for years:34 Does Justin look like Pierre, and did Fidel get lucky?

    No more shits and giggles. I made a deadly serious case in my 2021 YIR that we are witnessing a rising (and potentially unstoppable) global authoritarianism.35 Canada showed its fangs against the truckers. They needed to keep the truckers in check because a global trucker uprising could lead to Global Spring, which could become an unstoppable counterattack on the elites. The Road to Ukraine is not just about war; Western leaders are looking increasingly dangerous even at home.

    Patriot Front

    That is the 101st Airborne!

    ~ Joe Rogan

    The Patriot Front is a funny story with a dark interior. They are a group of so-called white supremacists who march around covered in masks (leaders aside). They are a dapper group of young men who lack the paunches that you might expect to see in a MAGA militia and are articulate.1 They march in step with military flare2 Their shields are all the same and suspiciously like those in pictures from Ukraine. Early on they arrived in SUVs with deeply tinted windows and taped-over license plates, but they eventually switched to U-Haul trucks. Strange videos show cops helping direct traffic while they load the truck.

    On a fateful day in June, the Patriot front members converged from across the country to cause trouble at an LGBTQ pride event in Coeur d’Alene, Idaho (population of 50,000). Seems like an odd target and irrelevant venue to spend all that money. No BLM or Antifa, but Gay pride? An “anonymous tip” alerted the police, and they were arrested for “spooning in a U-Haul,” which is the only crime committed up to that moment. “Conspiracy to riot” charge seems like a tough sell before the riot.3 Is this a pre-crime? It also seems odd the FBI didn’t have a bead on them already.

    The arrest was absurd. Their shoes show the same soles: standard issue? They were handcuffed with zip ties without taking off their masks, a megaphone, and even their backpacks. I guess the cops weren’t worried about concealed weapons or pipe bombs. A Federal agent tore that apart, noting that anything posing a risk would be taken immediately and that it is entirely “stupid bullshit”.4 Another noted you never leave a suspect on their knees; it is too easy to get on your feet and run.5 Others have had quite a hoot over the whole affair too.6,7

    Take a look at their mug shots: do you notice anything odd? Twenty-one white supremacists and not a single one has neck or facial tattoos.

    Let’s entertain the obvious theory that they are Feds. Why are they doing this? How is stirring up racial hatred not some sort of treason in this context? (I don’t give the Feds a free-speech pass on this one.) When these guys signed up to protect the nation, how are they not repulsed by their role in undermining the fabric of society? Maybe they just work for the DNC.

    I have only scratched the surface and had dismissed white supremacists as somewhere between irrelevant and urban legend. In one of the strangest and thoroughly made connections, these guys have been tied to the CIA and the Azov Battalion in Ukraine, part of the global Azov movement that includes the tiki torchers in Charlottesville that caused The Donald so much trouble.8 There is nothing humorous about this Azov movement, which is increasingly looking like a global problem with Ukraine as a training ground. All roads lead to Ukraine.

    Uvalde and Other Shootings

    In the past 48 hrs, the USA horrifically lost 34 people to mass shootings. On average, across any 48 hrs, we also lose…500 to medical errors 300 to the Flu, 250 to Suicide, 200 to Car Accidents, and 40 to Homicide via Handguns. Often our emotions respond more to spectacle than to data.

    ~ Neil deGrasse Tyson (@neiltyson), world-renowned voice of physics

    As we grieve the children of Uvalde today, we should take time to recognize that two years have passed since the murder of George Floyd under the knee of a police officer. His killing stays with us all to this day, especially those who loved him.1

    ~ Barack Obama, former POTUS, pandering and getting guff for it

    Contrary to popular opinion, the U.S. is not the world leader in mass killings.,3

    In the U.S., rifles kill fewer people than fists or knives.4

    I am unclear when my interest in mass shootings morphed from morbid rubber-necking to distrust. It could have been the Florida nightclub shooting where I kept seeing the same guy with a screwy hat in every scene in the mainstream media. There is, however, something going on here. I was on a panel discussion this year in front of 500 investors and was asked to name one conspiracy, not defend it, and take questions from the audience. My response: Many if not most of the mass shootings are sovereign backed.

    He is not the first mass shooter to destroy or hide digital clues. In 2007, [the] Virginia Tech shooter…took the step of removing the hard drive of his computer and disposing of his cell phone shortly before the massacre…The 2008 Northern Illinois [University] shooter, Steven Kazmierczak, removed the SIM card from his phone and the hard drive from his laptop, and neither was recovered…In 2012, Sandy Hook shooter Adam Lanza had removed the hard drive from his computer and smashed it with a hammer or screwdriver.5

    ~ABC News, now scrubbed but I read it.

    The shootings follow a similar protocol in which witnesses on the scene allude to multiple shooters with the plot distilling within 24 hours to one drug-addled teenager. After the body count, the kid is getting sentenced in court, never to be seen again—no digging for an explanation. The missing hard drives are problematic. Alex Jones discovered that chasing such stories to the extreme can be very expensive. This rogue’s gallery of shooters looks like the senior class in the M. K. Ultra School for Wayward Boys.6

    The Rosetta Stone for me is the Las Vegas shooting in which over 500 concertgoers were shot and 50 died at the hand of Stephen Paddock high up in the Mandalay Bay Casino. The largest domestic killing in the US since Gettysburg: when was the last time you heard it mentioned? Why does the anti-gun lobby not use that as their rallying cry? I wrote over a dozen pages pointing out countless absurdities in the plot7 and have no intention of revisiting that story in depth, only a couple of updates. A documentary emerged8,9,10 or what I call an “answer key” to check how I did. You really should watch it. There is nothing about this narrative that holds water. This is not a plot with kinks in it but rather a story in which nothing holds up to scrutiny. It was what is called a psyop (psychological operation) by sovereign State actors. One of the most interesting theories to emerge is that it was cover for a State-sponsored assassination of Saudi Prince Al Waleed bin Talal,11 but I will leave that for Alex to ponder. Two characters who played prominently in my awakening: (1) Sheriff Lombardo of Clark County, whose story morphed from it being “physically impossible” for one shooter to fire that many rounds to “one shooter” overnight. Mike Cronk, a hick from Alaska, just kept getting interviewed over and over while his absurdly implausible story drifted. He even participated in a staged (faked) visit to his friend at the hospital. He eventually got labeled by others as a “crisis actor,” which brought in more fact-checkers than Alaskan mountain men normally warrant. Well, as of November 2022, they are now Governor Lombardo and State Senator Cronk. They played their parts. I may be nuts but not alone:

    After a hiatus in shootings to make room for Covid, January 6, and Ukraine, a couple reappeared. The heartwarming story was when a 22-year-old named Elisjsha Dicken cut short a mall massacre with seven out of eight shots hitting the psycho from 40 paces.12 Young Wyatt Earp now has his own clothing line, a lifetime collection of memes, and a full dance card.

    This is all heading somewhere. The headliner was the shooting in Uvalde, Texas in which in June of 2022 an 18-year-old named Ramos slaughtered 19 kids and two adults while the cops stood by and did nothing. Parents (some armed) trying to save their kids were pushed back with pepper spray and restrained with handcuffs. 77 minutes of carnage transpired before an off-duty border agent took him out. The cops had been trained only months earlier13 and had installed expensive risk assessment tools.14 Their profound lack of response has been blamed on incompetence, cowardice, and bureaucratic ossification resulting from anti-cop movements rendering individuals unable to act outside strict, formulaic protocols. Videos show cops relentlessly retreating15 and meme-generating performances with one cop sanitizing his hands. The official story is that the cops waited for the master key to enter the building. Wait. What? It is no surprise that lawyers for the police tried not to release evidence.16

    There are problems with this story that bug me. Unlike Las Vegas, where I think the craziness is so easy to document that it dominates the story, I do not have the smoking gun, but if sovereign actors are involved in even some of the mass shootings we have to stay on this plot. Do it for the children. I warn you, there is no punchline, just concerns presented here in no particular order:

    • The incompetence and cowardice models do not work for me. Most of those cops were dads. I imagine a few were ex-military. None ran in? The formal training says that once there is a shooting, you get to the shooter. Period.17 I would have said that if you picked 20 guys out of the phonebook randomly, some number of them would have responded to the primal screams in their head, yelling, ‘Kids are dying; let’s get in there now.’ Recall the flight that went down over Shanksville, PA?

    • Tucker went all in on Las Vegas and asked some analogous thorny questions about Uvalde too.18

    • Ramos was from an impoverished family yet had $4,000 worth of guns and ammo.

    • Ramos was shooting up Uvalde 15 minutes before entering the school.

    • There is debris that, as shown by Alex should be left alone, but is out there for the most curious.19,20

    • A mother ran into the school to save her two children. She claimed the police were muzzling her and told a strangely inconsistent tale of the events.21 She describes escaping being detained in the school by the officers, begging them “for a vest”, and then declaring there “was not one officer in the school.”

    • Uvalde is a hamlet of 15,217 located in the Texas Hill Country, 80 miles west of San Antonio and 54 miles east of the Mexico–United States border. Curious: 372 cops were said to be on the scene.

    • Four years ago, two 14-year-olds in Uvalde were arrested for plotting to commit mass murder. Investigators said they were infatuated with the Columbine shootings. The plan was to do this upon graduation,22,23 which would be June 2022, the month of the shooting. Neither kid was Ramos. The author of the articles was named Ramos, a common name in the region.

    • Both the border guard who killed the shooter and the mom who saved the kids are heroes: where did they go? What are their names? Why are they not famous with tons of interviews?

    The entire Uvalde school district police force was suspended five months later.24 My school never had a district police force. The survivors just filed a class-action lawsuit, which makes sense although $27 billion is a reach.25

    Climate Change

    And so, I hope President Putin will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate.

    ~ John Kerry, February 23, 2022

    Having banged out dozens of pages describing my transition from climate believer (but not a true believer) to climate denier (a true denier), I have come to terms with the climate change story and retain little interest: whether it is occurring or not, the dominant narrative is a mass movement playing into an estimated $150 trillion grift.1 I’d love some of that action. Here are just a few tidbits:

    • 31,000 scientists signed a petition saying I am not the only nutjob denying the climate crisis.2 Jordan Peterson did a real nice riff on it.3

    • There are calls for the censorship of climate denial because the climate cultists are morons and demand shit like that.4,5

    • Everything from increased numbers of hurricanes—there is no such increase6—to a pandemic of myocarditis—there is one of those—are attributed by the cult to climate change.

    • Scientists trying to resurrect the wooly mammoth presume we are neanderthals when they claimed that mammoths would help climate change by packing down the snow.7

    • The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggested pollution decreases severity of the hurricanes, which is funny, but I don’t believe that either.8

    • Sri Lanka bought into the story, racking up a near-perfect Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) score higher than Swedes the old-fashioned way: they are now starving to death and grumpy about it.9

    • Germans want to hike the price of meat by 56% through a meat tax.10 The lack of food this winter could solve that problem.

    • The Dutch farmers were told not to grow any food as we may be heading into the teeth of global “food insecurity” also known as “famine” owing to “nitrogen pollution.”11 Next up: oxygen pollution.

    • U.S. authorities want $4-6 trillion per year to fight climate change.12 The true believers are being grifted on a colossal scale. Saving the whales was successful and a lot cheaper.

    I am sorry if I insulted you [Editor’s Note: No, he is not.], but I do think some of you are what Eric Hoffer would call “true idiots.” If you wish to talk about environmental destruction, resource depletion, and even overpopulation, I am all ears. I also know there are serious climate scientists out there. It is time for y’all to speak up or get tarred with my big brush. Here is my general rule of thumb: when someone mentions climate change in a non-scientific article, they have no clue what they are talking about.

    Nina Jankowicz

    My expectation for the Biden administration was low but not zero. I thought he would pivot to the center and be a generic president. It is not a partisan thing—almost all of my friends are democrats and I had no serious gripes about Obama— but I believe Biden has been a wretched president. His personal screwups are legion—I have pages of notes and anecdotes—but somehow chronicling them doesn’t interest me. Somebody filled his administration with total misfits. Just because he is demented, I refuse to give him a pass. I think he is hair sniffing perv, corrupt-to-the-core swindler, compulsive liar, and treasonous his international dealings with foreign countries. Those making major decisions for him—certainly not Harris and, in my opinion, not Obama either—appear to be hell-bent on destroying the country.1 I am biased, profoundly so at this point.

    Unless you turn back now and disband this Orwellian Disinformation Governance Board immediately, the undersigned will have no choice but to consider judicial remedies to protect the rights of their citizens.2

    ~ Letter from 20 State Attorneys General

    I want to zoom in on one appointment in particular, Nina Jankowicz, because her role is very interesting to me. Nina was appointed to be head of the new “Disinformation Governing Board” which has come to be called the Ministry of Truth, located within the Department of Homeland Security. That such an Orwellian concept was put into practice underscores my disdain—no, hatred—for the neo-Stalinists who have been pushing the nation to the brink. Nina, however, is a quirky individual. She introduced herself to the world by singing Mary Poppins tunes about the evils of Donald Trump.3,4

    Her neo-Stalinist leanings, however, are anything but benign. She expressed the need to intervene (edit and moderate) social media.5 In her alternative reality, social media (prior to Elon’s purchase) was censoring the political left, which was ridiculous at the time and demonstrably false now with the release of the Twitter documents.6 She believes government should set minimum speech standards. Banning misogyny, referring to “freedom of expression and fairy dust” and that algos would “allow us to get around some of the free speech concerns”7 and that free speech makes her “shudder”.8

    Critical race theory has become one of those hot-button issues that the Republicans and other disinformers, who are engaged in disinformation for profit, frankly…have seized on.

    ~ Nina Jankiewicz, Disinformation Governance Board

    Despite the New York Times’ spin, the plot takes several odd turns. The decidedly left-leaning The Nation ran an exposé on Nina, accusing their peers of faltering due diligence.11 Our insufferable Vaudevillian has a dark side lurking below the surface. Beginning in college she worked with StopFake, a government-funded propaganda machine charged with combating Kremlin lies. StopFake was pivotal in sanitizing violent Ukrainian neo-Nazi groups. It partners with Facebook fact-checkers to censor news. It was founded in 2014 during Ukraine’s CIA-led coup that brought a US-backed government into power. It was sold as a grass-roots antagonist to Russian propaganda. It even has George Soros’s Open Society Foundation backing to make the story juicy. Jankowicz was in Ukraine as a Fulbright Clinton Public Policy Fellow. Years before Jankowicz’s “warm portrayal of volunteer battalions,” The Nation had described their ‘ISIS-style’ War Crimes.” The article is a must-read to understand both Nina, Ukraine, and the Ukrainian Azov Battalion. And, if that is not weird enough, Nina Jankowicz just satisfied Federal Law by registering as a foreign agent.12 All roads lead to Ukraine.

    And with all those foreshadowings, let’s actually look at what the hell is happening in Ukraine in Part 2 of the 2022 Year in Review.

    Part 2 “The War In Ukraine & How Does It End?” will be released tomorrow…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 18:40

  • Israel's Netanyahu Vows To Seek Normalization With Saudi Arabia
    Israel’s Netanyahu Vows To Seek Normalization With Saudi Arabia

    Via The Libertarian Institute, 

    Israel’s incoming prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has said that the US must “reaffirm” its alliance with Saudi Arabia and that he will seek normalization with Riyadh once in office.

    “I think that the alliance, the traditional (US) alliance with Saudi Arabia and other countries, has to be reaffirmed. There should not be periodic swings, or even wild swings in this relationship, because I think that the alliance between America’s allies and with America is the anchor of stability in our region,” Netanyahu recently told Al-Arabiya English.

    Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu stands among members of the new Israeli parliament after a swearing-in ceremony in Jerusalem in November 2022. via Reuters

    Netanyahu’s comments come after the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress called for a change in the US-Saudi relationship in response to OPEC+ oil production cuts in October. But the administration has taken no concrete steps toward that end and worked this week to sabotage a war powers resolution that would have ended US support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

    Netanyahu said that he intends to discuss the Saudi relationship with President Biden. “I think it requires periodic reaffirmation, and I’m to speak to President Biden about it,” he said.

    The incoming prime minister said that he wants to build on the Abraham Accords, which his former government signed in 2020 to establish diplomatic ties with Bahrain and the UAE. Netanyahu said it’s “up to the leadership of Saudi Arabia if they want to partake in this effort.”

    Saudi officials recently reaffirmed that they seek a Palestinian state as a precondition for normalizing with Israel. But in order to form a coalition government, Netanyahu gave Religious Zionism party leader Bezalel Smotrich, an ultranationalist settler, sweeping powers over the West Bank.

    Smotrich will take a new minister position in the Israeli Defense Ministry and will be put in charge of a unit that deals with settler construction and the demolition of Palestinian construction. The appointment is seen as speeding up Israel’s de facto annexation of the West Bank.

    Netanyahu insisted in the interview that he will be making the decisions over issues in the West Bank and said he would work toward a peace deal with the Palestinians. “All the decisions will be made by me and the defense minister, and that’s actually in the coalition agreement,” he said.

    But Netanyahu significantly expanded settlements in the West Bank during his time as prime minister and was hoping to annex areas designated to Israel under a “peace plan” devised by the Trump administration. He only backed down on the plan before signing the Abraham Accords but continued settlement expansion.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 18:05

  • Pentagon Considers Training Ukrainians On Patriot Missiles Inside The US
    Pentagon Considers Training Ukrainians On Patriot Missiles Inside The US

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    The US military is considering training Ukrainian forces how to use Patriot missile defense systems at a base in the United States, Politico reported Thursday, citing two unnamed Pentagon officials.

    One Patriot air defense battery and munitions for the system were included in the $1.85 billion weapons package the US announced for Ukraine on Wednesday. It marks an escalation in US military aid as the Raytheon-made Patriots are considered to be the most advanced air defense systems in the US arsenal.

    Getty Images

    According to military experts, it should take about six months to train Ukrainians how to use the system, a timeline that would put the system on the battlefield by early summer if training began soon. Operating one Patriot battery requires about 90 troops, demonstrating how advanced the system is.

    The Pentagon has been training Ukrainians on how to use other US-provided weapons in Germany and elsewhere in Europe but hasn’t had a similar program inside the US since Russia invaded in February.

    “Since Russia’s February invasion, the Ukrainian armed forces have completed training on a host of different NATO-provided weapons systems, including the U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, in eastern Europe, Germany and the United Kingdom,” Politico noted. “But until this point, none of the training has been done in the United States.”

    If the training is done in the US, it would likely be at Fort Sill, Oklahoma, where officials told Politico most of the trainers and simulators are located.

    The report said that the Pentagon is considering whether to do all the training in the US or to complete other portions of it in a third country. An official said that the US wouldn’t give Ukraine the battery until its forces know how to use it, and it would likely be a system that the US military has in storage rather than one that’s deployed.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 17:30

  • Americans Won't Let 2022 Ruin A Perfectly Fine Christmas
    Americans Won’t Let 2022 Ruin A Perfectly Fine Christmas

    With everything that’s going on in the world, be it the war in Ukraine, the violent response to Iran’s protest movement, or, more domestically, the inflation crisis and the looming recession, people would be forgiven for not really getting into the Christmas spirit this year.

    But, as Statista’s Felix Richter notes, according to findings from Statista’s Global Consumer Survey, most Americans have no intention of skipping the festivities this year, though…

    …with 44 percent of respondents say they’ll still buy gifts for friends and family this year and 34 percent defiantly saying that nothing would stop them from getting into the Christmas spirit.

    Infographic: Americans Won't Let 2022 Ruin a Perfectly Fine Christmas | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    At the other end of the holiday cheer scale, 14 percent of respondents said they’d celebrate less this year because of all the things going in the world and another 14 percent said they’d travel less this year.

    Meanwhile 26 percent said they’d reduce their holiday spending and 18 are planning to celebrate less because of the economic and political situation in the United States.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 16:55

  • The New Cold War Has Begun
    The New Cold War Has Begun

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    Over the course of the last year, I have been sounding the alarm about the growing divide between BRIC nations, like China and Russia, and the United States.

    It started last year in August 2021, long before our current inflationary crisis and the war in Ukraine, when I predicted that China would try to concoct a gold backed digital currency that would put the U.S. dollar on its heels.

    As Russia’s war in Ukraine has progressed, the country has allied itself with China further and I have written and talked extensively about the threat that I think their relationship poses to the United States and the West.

    Reading not so subtle tea leaves – like the BRIC nations’ publicly stated intentions to create a global reserve currency (announced in July 2022, predicted by me in February 2022), and China’s all-but-certain plans to eventually try to take back Taiwan – I have been making the argument that the United States, with its $31 trillion in debt, is in possibly the most precarious economic position it has been in for decades.

    As we experienced firsthand, Chinese supply chain interruptions during the Covid pandemic – which now looks to have all-but-certainly started due to a lab leak – have the ability to significantly impact quality of life in the United States.

    After all, we import a majority of the products that we use on an everyday basis from China. We’ve run huge trade deficits for years and have ignorantly believed that the dollar’s reserve status would allow us to continue this unfair deal, wherein we give China soon-to-be-worthless printed paper and they give us actual goods, for as long as we want.

    United States Balance of Trade

    At the same time, lack of Russian energy resources has also had a negative impact on quality of life, not only in the rising price of oil in the United States, but in the soaring cost of energy in Europe.

    Europe Scrambles to Respond as Gas Prices Surge: Energy Update - Bloomberg

    And additional recent revelations have supported my thesis that the United States could be on the precipice of a sea change in dollar hegemony, geopolitical strength and quality of life.

    There’s been several alarming developments over the last several weeks that have furthered my case. Let’s review them and what I believe the situation means for investors.

    Many of these developments feature China as a direct protagonist to the West.

    While reading this, keep in mind that China isn’t alone, it is allied with Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil and many other nations. It’s also worth noting that China has a growing domestic crisis on its hands as its citizen have begun actively demonstrating and pushing back on Covid lockdowns in a way never thought possible for a country that doesn’t see much public outcry to government policy.

    60% OFF: My subscribers had a first look at this piece several weeks ago. If you’d like to subscribe, for the holiday, I can offer you 60% off for life by using this link. 

    The first red flag is a concept I have talked about extensively with my friend Andy Schectman: the idea of the dollar no longer being the world’s key petrocurrency.

    A key element to the dollar remaining the global reserve currency is its demand, much of which globally is driven by transactions in oil. This started back in 1974, when the U.S. promised the Saudi kingdom protection in exchange for the Saudis pricing oil in U.S. dollars.

    “…Saudi Arabia, which had the world’s largest proven reserves of oil, was to price and sell its oil only in dollars and was also obliged to invest its surplus oil proceeds in US debt securities…”

    But that four decade-old deal is starting to slip away, it appears. In March 2022, the Wall Street Journal first reported that the Saudis were considering stepping away from the dollar in exchange for – you guessed it – the Chinese yuan.

    The talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom, the people said.

    Other countries are already beating Saudi Arabia to the punch. Russia is selling gas to China in roubles and yuan as of earlier this year. Debt laden Ghana, though not a powerhouse on the global GDP stage, has just agreed to buy oil with gold instead of U.S. dollar reserves to held secure its currency.

    Elsewhere among BRIC nations and BRIC nation-candidates, Turkey and Qatar are tying themselves up financially. Qatar is sealing long-term LNG deals with China.

    Over here in the United States, distillate stocks are running at their lowest in decades and we have depleted our strategic petroleum reserve.

    While at the same time, our national debt continues to run higher, faster. Our national debt currently stands at $31.3 trillion, but more alarmingly our national debt to GDP has scorched to 50 year highs and is now near 140%.

    The second alarm bell that should be going off is that Central Banks elsewhere in the world are in a rush to stockpile gold and one “mystery buyer” has been confirmed to be China.

    My readers will remember just days ago when I pointed out that a large “mystery buyer” was hoarding gold on a global stage. “They appear to have an insatiable appetite for the precious metal,” I wrote last week.

    There Are Massive, Record Breaking “Mystery Buyers” In Gold All Of A Sudden

    Bloomberg called the buyers “mystery whales” at the time and postulated that it was likely either China, Russia, Saudi Arabia or India. That buyer was revealed last week by Nikkei to likely be China, who was said to be buying gold to cut their dependence on the U.S. dollar. Nikkei wrote:

    Central banks bought a net 399.3 tonnes of gold in the July-September period, more than quadrupling on the year, according to the November report by industry group the World Gold Council. The latest amount marks a steep jump from 186 tonnes in the preceding quarter and 87.7 tonnes in the first quarter, while the year-to-date total alone surpasses any full year since 1967.

    The article continued:

    “Seeing how Russia’s overseas assets were frozen after its invasion of Ukraine, anti-Western countries are eager to accumulate gold holdings on hand,” said Emin Yurumazu, a Japan-based economist from Turkey.

    “China likely bought a substantial amount of gold from Russia,” said market analyst Itsuo Toshima.

    China has made similar moves in the past. After staying mum since 2009, Beijing stunned the market in 2015, disclosing it had boosted gold holdings by about 600 tonnes. It has not reported any activity since September 2019.

    (Chart: Zero Hedge, who had a great writeup on China’s reveal as the mystery buyer)

    And also noted that these purchases are coming while China dumps U.S. treasuries and strengthens its trade relationship with Russia:

    China has been unloading U.S. bonds. It sold $121.2 billion in U.S. debt , the equivalent of roughly 2,200 tonnes of gold, between the end of February — immediately after Russia’s first attack on Ukraine — and the end of September, according to the U.S. Treasury Department.

    Chinese imports of gold from Russia surged in July, soaring more than eightfold on the month and roughly 50 times the year-earlier level, according to China’s customs authorities.

    Bloomberg noted in its original article about a week ago that the Central Bank purchases were nearly double the previous record.

    This isn’t just a move by China you would make if trying to shore up your relationship with Russia. It’s also a move you would make if you were preparing for war, economic or otherwise.

    It’s also not definitive proof that China is going to back its currency with gold, but it would certainly be a large step in the right direction, should China want to head in that direction.

    60% OFF: My subscribers had a first look at this piece several weeks ago. If you’d like to subscribe, for the holiday, I can offer you 60% off for life by using this link. 

    A third red flag worth keeping an eye on is China’s constant espionage efforts in the United States.

    Remember back in July when I wrote about how an investigation revealed that China spied on the Federal Reserve and even detained and threatened as U.S. economist? It turns out my “paranoia”, as many readers called it then, continues to be warranted.

    It was reported last Wednesday that U.S. Senators were warned that “hundreds of Chinese-manufactured drones have been detected in restricted airspace over Washington, D.C., in recent months, a trend that national security agencies fear could become a new means for foreign espionage.”

    Politico reported last week:

    The recreational drones made by Chinese company DJI, which are designed with “geofencing” restrictions to keep them out of sensitive locations, are being manipulated by users with simple workarounds to fly over no-go zones around the nation’s capital.

    Federal officials and drone industry experts have delivered classified briefings to the Senate Homeland Security, Commerce and Intelligence committees on the development, three people privy to the meetings said.

    This comes at a time when the U.S. is mostly standing idly by while popular phone software TikTok, described as a “national security threat” by many analysts, continues to send information from the U.S. back to China.

    FBI director Christopher Wray testified last week before the House that the FBI had a “number of concerns” about the software: “They include the possibility that the Chinese government could use it to control data collection on millions of users or control the recommendation algorithm, which could be used for influence operations if they so chose, or to control software on millions of devices, which gives it an opportunity to potentially technically compromise personal devices.”

    Meanwhile, as I have been pointing out for years, many of our government buildings, including the Pentagon, are littered with China-manufactured Hikvision cameras.

    Taken cumulatively, these new developments paint the exact picture one would expect from a country that is actively battening down the hatches. In a worst case scenario it could represent coming aggression toward the United States and the West. In a best case scenario, it could simply be China preparing for a massive geopolitical rejiggering of economic power. Either way, taken collectively, I can’t help but think it’s a new Cold War that has already begun:

    1. The U.S. is economically in its most precarious state in decades and has depleted a fair amount of its oil reserves

    2. Saudi Arabia is openly floating the idea of stepping away from the U.S. dollar and switching the Chinese yuan for oil payments, pressuring a key item of support for the dollar as global reserve currency

    3. China and Russia have openly floated the idea of challenging the dollar as global reserve currency

    4. Other countries are buying oil in roubles, yuan and gold

    5. Central Banks are hoarding gold to the tune of quadrupling purchases from the year prior, including China acting as a “mystery whale” with large purchases

    6. China is also dumping U.S. dollar denominated treasury bonds

    7. New espionage efforts may have emerged with Chinese-made drones flying in restricted airspace over the Capitol, following confirmed reports of China attempting to spy on the Fed and shake down U.S. economists

    8. Popular Chinese software like TikTok has been called a “national security threat” by the FBI

    I’ve never been more convinced that my thesis about BRIC nations looking to separate from the West is playing out before our eyes. As is typical, Wall Street and analysts have been unable to zoom out and see the larger picture here – either from recency bias or due to willful ignorance. But to me, it’s clear – and for those of you that haven’t yet, I encourage you to listen to this podcast with Andy Schectman, wherein he lays out more of the details of this thesis.

    Then there’s the idea of how I would personally invest for a situation like this. Putting aside the fact that the Fed is “tapping out” our economy as we speak, I still think there are some growth names worth considering as we move into this new epoch globally.

    First and foremost, I have been a large bull on cybersecurity names, including Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and have been gaining exposure to the space through the iShares Cybersecurity and Tech ETF (IHAK). When it comes to defense, I also think about names like Lockheed (LMT) which I have been bullish on for a year now and Raytheon (RTX). I also gain exposure to that space via the iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA). Obviously, I also continue to like gold and silver, as well as gold (GDX) and silver miners (SIL).

    When it comes to the market overall, I’ve been cautious.

    There’s no nice way to say this: recency bias is a bitch. It’s easy to believe that because everything has been copacetic over the last decade or two with regard to both monetary policy and geopolitical volatility, that such a complacency will continue.

    But to me, the news items that continue to trickle in do nothing but consistently and methodically lay bricks into the firm foundation of my long-held belief that we are in the midst of an unprecedented pivot the likes of which we’ve never seen before.

    60% OFF: My subscribers had a first look at this piece several weeks ago. If you’d like to subscribe, for the holiday, I can offer you 60% off for life by using this link. 

    QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 16:20

  • NatGas Production Collapses As Deep Freeze Paralyzes US
    NatGas Production Collapses As Deep Freeze Paralyzes US

    An arctic blast gripped the eastern half of the US, knocked out power, and slashed energy production. Sub-freezing temperatures resulted in one of the most significant one-day natural gas production declines on Friday. 

    BloombergNEF reported NatGas supplies across the Lower 48 states fell 10 billion cubic feet, or 10%, from the previous day as a deep freeze across top-producing regions, including Texas, experienced freeze-offs that froze liquids in pipes and forced wells to shutter. 

    The arctic air has also disrupted exports of liquefied natural gas from the Gulf Coast. 

    Subfreezing temperatures and high winds through Dec. 26 may cause delays or suspension to pilot services for the Sabine-Neches Waterway in Texas, according to notices from Moran Shipping. The waterway services the Sabine Pass terminal, the largest US LNG export facility.

    Pilots for the port of Corpus Christi, who are responsible for docking vessels in the southern Texas region, have suspended boarding vessels due to the cold, according to Moran. That may affect ship traffic to the Corpus Christi LNG export facility.

    Cheniere Energy Inc., operator of the Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi terminals, said that it always prepares for and responds to extreme weather to safely manage operations. The company didn’t comment on the current operations of the facilities. —Bloomberg 

    There have also been reports that 1.5 million barrels of daily refining capacity along the Gulf Coast were halted due to freezing temperatures. Production losses will lead to higher energy costs. 

    Knocked out were TotalEnergies, Motiva Enterprises and Marathon Petroleum facilities outside Houston. Cold weather also disrupted Exxon Mobil, LyondellBasell and Valero Energy plants in Texas that produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. –Reuters

    The cold snap will remain in place for the next several days. Average temperatures across the US on Christmas could be the coldest in decades — if not, records could be broken. Average low temps tonight will be well below freezing nationwide. 

    Meanwhile, domestic demand for NatGas is soaring as heating demand surges. What could possibly go wrong as supplies are being curtailed? 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 15:10

  • Kremlin Rejects Reports Of 'Isolated, Paranoid' Putin Who Is Fed Inaccurate Battlefield Info
    Kremlin Rejects Reports Of ‘Isolated, Paranoid’ Putin Who Is Fed Inaccurate Battlefield Info

    Back in 2020, a Kremlin spokesman addressed questions over whether President Vladimir Putin accesses the internet often to gain a sense of reporting on Russia and its actions from the outside world. At the time, the Kremlin revealed that “He doesn’t have a smartphone, it’s simply impossible.” And this reportedly still hasn’t changed.

    Recently, speculation over Putin’s daily habits related to how he accesses information or what sources he utilizes and whether the briefings his military and intelligence services provide are accurate has only grown due to the Ukraine war.

    A fresh Wall Street Journal report has added to the ongoing speculation by saying that he avoids using the internet or electronic devices on fears that he will be spied on by Western intelligence agencies.

    Instead, he reportedly is mostly reliant on physical paper reports which in some instances take days to reach his desk, after they are compiled by frontline commanders, and then passed through Russia’s top intel bureaucrats and advisors.

    The Wall Street Journal says it interviewed multiple current and former Russian officials for testimonies on which it is basing the conclusion. The report offers a portrait of an isolated president who remained “unable, or unwilling, to believe that Ukraine would successfully resist.”

    The WSJ sources emphasized that this isolation has resulted in inaccurate assessments of the real state of the battlefield, as briefings and reports are “carefully calibrated to emphasize successes and play down setbacks.” His avoidance of technological means of information, as well as a wider array of ‘information pipelines’, has also made Putin “more dependent on briefing documents compiled by ideologically aligned advisers,” according to the report. 

    “Front-line commanders report to the Federal Security Service, or FSB, the successor to the KGB, which edits reports for experts at the Security Council, who pass them to Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, the arch hawk who helped persuade Mr. Putin to invade Ukraine,” the Wall Street Journal’s sources claim.

    The WSJ has further said this has resulted in some devastating and somewhat embarrassing ‘bad info’-driven failures, for example in relating the following alleged bizarre episode:

    Russian troops were losing the battle for Lyman, a small city in eastern Ukraine, in late September when a call came in for the commanding officer on the front line, over an encrypted line from Moscow.

    It was Vladimir Putin, ordering them not to retreat.

    The president seemed to have limited understanding of the reality of the situation, according to current and former U.S. and European officials and a former senior Russian intelligence officer briefed on the exchange. His poorly equipped front-line troops were being encircled by a Ukrainian advance backed by artillery provided by the West. Mr. Putin rebuffed his own generals’ commands and told the troops to hold firm, they said.

    Kremlin.ru

    Of course, it should be pointed out that this type of ‘cherry-picking’ of intelligence to fit an established ideological narrative is nothing new in the history of intelligence agencies broadly in the world, or how leaders get informed. This is part of the well-known story of how the American public was lied into supporting the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, for example.

    American intelligence officials as well as former Bush administration officials have since admitted that only those CIA and other agency assessments that confirmed to the narrative the neocons wanted to hear were presented at the White House.

    As for Russia, it has rejected the new claims of Putin’s supposedly limited access to accurate war-time information, with Kremlin spokesman Dimitry Peskov saying of Putin, “The president, as earlier, has multiple channels for receiving information.” He added: “Any claims that he receives distorted information do not correspond to reality.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 14:35

  • Here Are 21 Tweets That Will Make You Smile As You Endure "Once In A Generation" Storm Roaring Across America
    Here Are 21 Tweets That Will Make You Smile As You Endure “Once In A Generation” Storm Roaring Across America

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    At times like these, it helps to smile. 

    As if we hadn’t already gone through enough in 2022, now a “once in a generation” winter storm is ripping across the country. 

    Thousands of flights have been cancelled, and “the coldest air in decades” is pouring into the Midwest.  This is truly a very bitter end to a very bitter year.  I wish that I could tell you that 2023 will be better, but that wouldn’t be the truth.  The consequences of literally decades of incredibly bad decisions are now catching up with us all at once, and so there will be a lot of pain in the year ahead. 

    But for the moment, let’s take a break from all of the troubling things that are happening and look back at some of the tweets that made us smile in 2022…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

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    * * *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 14:00

  • Average Global Optimism Plunges For 2023
    Average Global Optimism Plunges For 2023

    While global optimism for 2023 has dropped, despite everything, the world is still on average holding out more hope than not.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck reports, according to the latest data from Ipsos, a global average of 65 percent of respondents say they feel optimistic that 2023 will be better than 2022. Yet, as Statista’s chart shows, that’s down 12 percentage points from last year and the lowest score recorded since Ipsos started running the survey.

    Infographic: While Optimism Wavers For 2023, Hope Still Wins Out | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Of course, a global average as a single figure hides the differences between countries.

    For instance, when looking at an international breakdown, Brazil has a relatively high share of people feeling positive about the coming year. Out of the 32 countries polled, it comes out on top, with 85 percent of respondents feeling more optimistic about 2023 than 2022. This has risen slightly from last year when 82 percent of respondents said they felt optimistic looking ahead.

    At the opposite end of the spectrum stands Japan. The country has only 36 percent of its respondents feeling more positive about next year, which is an 18 percentage point drop from one year before. This is supported by a similar survey carried out earlier this year by Nippon, which similarly found that respondents, especially the younger generation, felt little hope that their country was set to improve anytime soon, partly due to the country having entered an era of declining population and low economic growth.

    The UK has a more equal split. Where a total of 87 percent of Britons considered 2022 to be a particularly bad year for the country, over 80 percent of respondents also said it’s likely prices will increase faster than people’s incomes next year, that inflation will be higher in 2023 than 2022, and that interest rates will grow further still.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 13:25

  • Feverishly Racing Toward Our Own Destruction…
    Feverishly Racing Toward Our Own Destruction…

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    We are careening directly into an abyss of war, pain and misery, and our leaders are thunderously applauding as it happens.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to Washington this week because he wanted more money, and our politicians in Washington definitely did not disappoint him.  Even though we had already given Ukraine far more money than the rest of the world combined, our politicians agreed to give him another colossal mountain of cash.  On some level, we all have to respect Zelenskyy’s skills as a con man.  Even though he has banned the main opposition party in Ukraine, and even though he has banned all television stations that were critical of him, and even though he just banned an entire ancient Christian denomination, our politicians continue to worship him like some sort of a pop music star.  Zelenskyy has become an extremely oppressive dictator that has set himself up to rule Ukraine for as long as he wants, but members of Congress from both parties continue to hail him as a “champion of democracy” that deserves our unquestioning support.

    What makes this so dangerous is that Zelenskyy has been trying very hard to pull the United States into his war with Russia.

    Throughout 2022 the U.S. has been getting increasingly involved in the conflict, and at this point we are “providing most of the funding, most of the equipment, most of the ammunition, most of the high level intelligence and much of the training” for the international army that is fighting the Russians in Ukraine.

    In other words, we are essentially a direct participant in the war.

    For years I have been warning my readers that there would be a war with Russia, and now it is here.

    If we had rational leaders in Washington, they would be trying to end this conflict before the nukes start flying.

    But instead, they are pledging to give Zelenskyy whatever he needs for as long as it takes to defeat the Russians.

    When Zelenskyy visited Washington this week, the White House literally rolled out the red carpet for him.

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    To see such an honor bestowed upon a cruel foreign dictator that is ruthlessly oppressing anyone that opposes him should nauseate all of us.

    And when Zelenskyy arrived to deliver his speech to a joint session of Congress, he was greeted with a standing ovation.

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    It isn’t just the Democrats that have fallen for Zelenskyy’s act.

    At this point, Mitch McConnell says that showering Ukraine with money should be our “number one priority”…

    “Providing assistance for Ukrainians to defeat the Russians is the number one priority for the United States right now according to most Republicans. That’s how we see the challenges confronting the country at the moment.”

    Thankfully, there are still at least a few voices of reason that can see exactly what Zelenskyy is trying to do.

    One of them is Tucker Carlson.

    According to Carlson, it is absurd to give a foreign tyrant so much money when we have so many pressing needs here at home.

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    But no matter how hard Zelenskyy oppresses his own people, our politicians are going to continue to shower him with more money, and that is because Zelenskyy has done an amazing job of positioning his war as the most important “current thing”.  I really like how John Nolte made this point in one of his most recent articles…

    Zelensky has brilliantly — brilliantly! — positioned himself to be The Thing Through Which The Establishment Proves Its Purity.

    That means the only questions anyone dares ask about Zelensky and Ukraine are…

    Who can give Ukraine the most money?

    Who can give Ukraine the most weapons?

    Who can give Ukraine the most praise?

    Who can lick Zelensky’s boots the cleanest?

    Zelensky is getting everything he wants and more, including America flirting with nuclear war. Why? Because he was savvy enough to crack the code of the shallow, insecure, conformist idiots we elect and reelect as our leaders.

    Nolte is quite right.

    And once a con man has identified a “golden goose”, he is just going to keep coming back again and again.

    So even though we have already given Ukraine more money than everyone else combined, it will never be enough to satisfy Zelenskyy.

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    In addition to cold, hard cash, the U.S. also continues to give the Ukrainians some of our best military equipment.

    The Biden administration just agreed to send Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, and that represents another huge escalation.

    The Biden administration will send to Ukraine the most advanced air defense weapon in its arsenal, the Patriot missile system, officials said Wednesday, marking the most significant addition to American military support for the government in Kyiv in months.

    Meanwhile, the Russians continue to escalate the conflict as well.

    In fact, it appears that the Russians have been very busy moving tanks into position for another major offensive campaign from the north.

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    If both sides just keep escalating matters, we will eventually reach a point where somebody crosses a line that will never be able to be uncrossed.

    We have been pushed to the brink of nuclear war, and the Russians are getting ready to officially deploy their new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles in January…

    Putin said on Wednesday during a meeting with military chiefs that he aimed to deploy his terrifying RS-28 Sarmat missile – nicknamed Satan-2 – in January.

    The world-ending missile can blast targets at almost 16,000mph – meaning it has the potential to obliterate the UK 1,600 miles away in just six minutes.

    Sadly, the quote that you just read is not an exaggeration.

    Each Sarmat can reportedly carry up to 15 independently-targetable nuclear warheads.

    That means that one missile goes up, and 15 warheads come down.

    And each one of those warheads can instantly wipe out an entire major city.

    The Sarmat is the most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile in the entire world by a wide margin, and we have no way to defend against them.

    So maybe we should think twice before getting into a nuclear war with Russia.

    Unfortunately, our leaders seem to have gone completely mad at this point, and of course our leaders in Washington are simply a reflection of what has happened to the rest of our society.

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    When Ronald Reagan described the Soviet Union as the “Evil Empire” in the 1980s, he was quite correct.

    But since that time just about every form of evil that you can possibly imagine has absolutely exploded in our own nation.

    So are we “the baddies” now?

    Sadly, most Americans will not even entertain that question.

    And our leaders are just going to continue to push us toward a nuclear conflict that could ultimately mean the end of our society once and for all.

    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/24/2022 – 12:50

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Dec 24

Today’s News 24th December 2022

  • Anything Mao Can Do I Can Do Better: Xi Jinping
    Anything Mao Can Do I Can Do Better: Xi Jinping

    Authored by Stu Cvrk via The Epoch Times,

    For months, China watchers have been focused like laser beams on the Taiwan Strait, with much speculation on whether and when communist China will attempt a cross-Strait invasion to “absorb” Taiwan by force into the “People’s Republic.”

    That speculation became a fever pitch due to two events: Nancy Pelosi’s 19-hour visit to Taipei back in July and Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s triumphant report to the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress in October.

    The first event led to a surge in People’s Liberation Army (PLA) intimidation of Taiwan, while the second reemphasized “unification” as “a natural requirement for realizing the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” to be achieved by the hundred-year anniversary of the founding of the Chinese communist dictatorship.

    Will Xi pull the trigger, or won’t he? And when might that happen? Within the next year or perhaps by 2027? The opinions are all over the map.

    Xi elevated himself to Mao Zedong-level status by receiving an unprecedented third five-year term as general secretary of the CCP and chairman of the Central Military Commission. The 20th Congress was a complete triumph for Xi: the constitution was modified to essentially allow him to be “emperor for life,” his allies filled all important positions in the new Standing Politburo, and former leader Hu Jintao was humiliated and frog-marched out of the plenary session by Xi’s thugs.

    Furthermore, the Congress did not designate a successor to Xi. And the cult of Xi is advanced daily by state-run Chinese media in the same way they propagandized that Mao could do no wrong during his cruel reign.

    Xi’s rhetoric about “peaceful unification with Taiwan” is meaningless, as reunification will be accomplished at the end of the PLA’s bayonets unless Taiwan and its allies surrender. With the continued modernization and growth of the PLA and PLA Navy, Taiwan watchers are rightfully concerned that Xi has completely consolidated political power and has the means and will to use the Chinese military to achieve his stated goals, including “reunification.”

    And Xi is not afraid to use authoritarian methods to achieve his goals, as the last 10 years have shown: reeducation camps in Xinjiang, increased persecution of minority populations and religious groups, arbitrary and brutal zero-COVID lockdowns, and outright genocide against Uyghurs and others, including Tibetans.

    Speaking of Tibet, could territorial gains in South China be a more immediate goal for Xi than the absorption of Taiwan?

    After all, PLA ground forces have a record of success in capturing and occupying territory. In contrast, the PLA Navy is untested and faces logistics hurdles in supporting and sustaining a cross-Strait invasion.

    China’s aircraft carrier Liaoning takes part in a military drill of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy in the western Pacific Ocean on April 18, 2018. (Reuters)

    Mao left some unfinished business after the PLA invaded Tibet in 1949. After defeating the small Tibetan army and occupying the country, the communists imposed the sham “17-Point Agreement for the Peaceful Liberation of Tibet” on the Tibetan government in 1951. The communists annexed Tibet and began the genocide and pacification efforts that continue today, including torture, suppression of Tibetan culture, forced imprisonment and “reeducation,” and other brutality. Over a million Tibetans perished, and more than 6,000 monasteries were looted and razed as the CCP systematically destroyed Tibet’s ancient Buddhist civilization. The Dalai Lama and thousands of his followers subsequently fled to India in 1959 and established a government in exile.

    Five Fingers Policy

    The Chinese communists’ actions in Tibet were part of a long-expressed foreign policy developed by Mao during the 1940s—the so-called “Five Fingers Policy.” The essence of the policy is this: “While Tibet was the right hand of China, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and Ladakh were its ‘five fingers’ of its periphery and that it was China’s duty to ‘liberate’ these areas,” according to India-based education tech company Byju’s. Never mind the wishes and dreams of the peaceful inhabitants of these areas!

    The policy, of course, was nothing but a bald-faced characterization of communist China’s expansionist goals in the region, which could only be achieved at the expense of India—the Seven Sister States of northeast India (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura), Sikkim, the Siliguri Corridor, Utter Pradesh, and the western states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. Previously quasi-independent, Sikkim joined the rest of India as a state in 1975—probably as much in fear of the Chinese communists as anything. These are all on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), a disputed demarcation that separates Indian-controlled territory from Chinese-controlled territory.

    Chinese soldiers are pictured at the Nathu La Pass area at the India-China border in the north-eastern Indian state of Sikkim in August 2003. The two sides had a minor face-off at another pass called the Naku La on Jan. 20, 2021, according to the Indian army. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)

    The PLA and the Indian Army have crossed swords in various military skirmishes and a border war in 1962 over LAC disputes. Here are some of those confrontations:

    • The 1962 Sino-Indian Border War, which killed 8,000 Indians and 2,000 Chinese, resulted in the establishment of a 12-mile-wide demilitarized zone along the LAC.

    • Nathu La and Cho La skirmishes near Sikkim in 1967 over India’s construction of an iron fence to prevent Chinese incursions.

    • The Tulung La Incident in 1975 along the LAC in Arunachal Pradesh.

    • The Sumdorong Chu Valley standoff in 1987 after India granted statehood to Arunachal Pradesh (claimed by China as “South Tibet”).

    • The Daulat Beg Oldi and Chumar standoffs in 2013 over the construction of various structures and encampments.

    • The Demchok standoff in 2014 over reciprocal claims of “illegal construction” in disputed areas.

    • The Burtse incident in 2015 in which India destroyed a watchtower that was “too close” to the mutually agreed-upon patrolling lane.

    • The Doklam standoff in 2017 after China began building a road through southern Bhutan that threatened the Siliguri Corridor.

    • The Sino-Indian skirmishes in 2020 near Pangong Tso Lake and the Galwan Valley in Ladakh. Beijing subsequently asserted sovereignty over the entire Galwan Valley, representing a significant change to the status quo in the western part of the LAC. During this incident, “dozens of Indian and Chinese soldiers died beating each other with sticks, clubs, and other rudimentary weapons,” Breitbart reported.

    • The 2022 standoff in Arunachal Pradesh state over a Chinese village.

    And now there have been multiple reports of Indian and Chinese troops clashing on the border at the Tawang sector in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh on Dec. 9. “PLA troops crossed the LAC in the Tawang sector, which was contested by [India’s] own troops in a firm and resolute manner. This face-off led to minor injuries to a few personnel from both sides,” according to an Indian army spokesman.

    An Indian army convoy moves on the Srinagar-Ladakh highway at Gagangeer, northeast of Srinagar, Indian-controlled Kashmir, on Sept. 9, 2020. (Dar Yasin/AP Photo)

    While Mao’s “Five Fingers Policy” seemed to have died with him—as there have been no public utterances of it by subsequent Chinese leaders and diplomats since Mao’s passing—it is entirely possible that Xi has resurrected the policy, given that the preponderance of China-India skirmishes along the LAC has occurred during his tenure (and seem to be accelerating in frequency).

    Concluding Thoughts

    Xi has elevated himself to the stature of Mao, at least on the political level. To transcend Mao in the eyes of the CCP cadre and the Chinese people, in general, may be his ultimate personal goal. Mao left two major policies unfulfilled: the annexation of the Five Fingers and unification with Taiwan. To achieve either or both would cement Xi’s claim to be at least the equal of Mao by finishing what the Great Helmsman himself could not do.

    Xi claims to have read various Western authors, including Alexander Pushkin, Leo Tolstoy, Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (Faust), Walt Whitman, Mark Twain, Jack London, Ernest Hemingway, and Victor Hugo, according to CCP mouthpiece People’s Daily. Such claims undoubtedly help cement the cult of Xi in the minds of many.

    Has the apparently well-read Xi partaken of any books from ancient Greece? If so, perhaps he understands the concept of the alpha and the omega—the beginning and the end. God-willing, Mao was the alpha of the Chinese communist regime, and Xi is the omega.

    Keep your eyes on Tibet and India’s Seven Sisters in the meantime.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 23:55

  • Putin References Ukraine "War" For 1st Time, In Response To Zelensky's D.C. Visit
    Putin References Ukraine “War” For 1st Time, In Response To Zelensky’s D.C. Visit

    This perhaps marks the biggest signal thus far over more than 10 months of fighting that the Ukraine conflict could grind on for years… 

    Russian President Vladimir Putin called his “special military operation” in Ukraine a “war” for the first time since he launched a full-scale invasion into Russia’s neighbor nearly 10 months ago.

    Putin said at a Thursday televised news conference: “Our goal is not to spin this flywheel of a military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war,” adding that “This is what we are striving for.” The words came as the Kremlin is still reacting to Zelensky’s Wednesday speech wherein he pressed US lawmakers to authorize tanks, warplanes, and longer-range missiles while talking up future “victory”.

    Getty Images

    The Russian president as well as all his top officials, including state media pundits, have until now been very careful in using the officially sanctioned language of “special military operation” in describing the Ukraine invasion which began on Feb.24.

    All the way back in April, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told Congress that he expects the conflict to take “years”: 

    “It’s a bit early, still. Even though we’re a month-plus into the war, there is much of the ground war left in Ukraine,” he added. “But I do think this is a very protracted conflict, and I think it’s at least measured in years. I don’t know about a decade, but at least years for sure.”

    “This is a very extended conflict that Russia has initiated,” Milley went on, “and I think that NATO, the United States, Ukraine and all of the allies and partners that are supporting Ukraine are going to be involved in this for quite some time.”

    This week US national security spokesman John Kirby asserted that Putin is “obviously not interested in diplomacy right now.”

    “Quite the contrary,” Kirby said. “He’s interested in killing more civilian Ukrainians and knocking out the lights and knocking out the heat as the winter approaches,” he alleged.

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    It should also be noted that Putin’s unprecedented word choice of “war” came the day after Ukrainian President Zelensky visited Washington and met with President Biden, and gave an address before Congress, wherein he pledged “absolute victory”. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 23:30

  • Scientists Develop Gelatinous Robots To Crawl Through Human Body To Deliver Medical Payloads, Diagnose Illnesses
    Scientists Develop Gelatinous Robots To Crawl Through Human Body To Deliver Medical Payloads, Diagnose Illnesses

    Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

    Scientists have developed miniature gelatinous robots that can crawl through the human body to deliver medicine or diagnose illnesses.

    The “gelbot” is powered by little more than temperature changes, and its innovative design, which resembles an inchworm, is one of the most promising concepts in the field of soft robotics, according to Jill Rosen of John Hopkins University.

    “It seems very simplistic, but this is an object moving without batteries, without wiring, without an external power supply of any kind—just on the swelling and shrinking of gel,” said David Gracias, a professor in the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering at Johns Hopkins University and a senior project leader.

    “Our study shows how the manipulation of shape, dimensions, and patterning of gels can tune morphology to embody a kind of intelligence for locomotion.”

    The 3D-printed robot, which is made out of gelatin, is intended to replace pills or intravenous injections, which could cause problematic side effects.

    The prototype was announced in the journal Science Robotics, on Dec. 14.

    Gelbot May Revolutionize Medicine in the 21st Century

    Compared to most robots that are made out of hard materials like metals or plastics, the revolutionary “gelbot”consists an innovative water-based gel which feels like a gummy bear, making it more suitable for its task.

    The team at John Hopkins said that the gels can “swell or shrink” in response to temperature, in order to be used to “create smart structures,” and they were able to demonstrate how they could move the jelly-like robots forward and backward on flat surfaces and maneuver them in certain directions, with an undulating, wave-like motion.

    Gracias envisions the medical devices crawling through a patient’s body to deliver medication to a tumor, blood clot, or an infection directly, while not disturbing healthy tissue.

    Unlike swallowed tablets or injected liquids, which have a time delayed effect, the tiny robot could hold back a dose of medicine and then immediately inject it when it reaches its target.

    The researchers foresee the “gelbot” revolutionizing how doctors examine their patients by working as minimally invasive devices to assist with diagnoses and treatments.

    Gracias is also planning to program the robots to crawl in response to variations in human biomarkers and biochemicals and test other worm and marine organism-inspired designs, along with the addition of cameras and sensors to their bodies.

    He further plans to use the “gelbot” for other purposes such as marine exploration, or to patrol and monitor the ocean’s surface to fight maritime pollution.

    Other Research Teams Are Working on Similar Robotic Designs

    The team at John Hopkins are not the only ones looking to come up with a miniature medical robot device.

    Two and a half years ago, researchers at Cornell University announced a project to develop tiny microscopic machines with legs that could move inside a patient to deliver drugs or assist with diagnoses like the “gelbot.”

    This design, utilizing a mini-computer, was able to move via laser impulses and was small enough to live next to microorganisms that already lived inside a human body.

    “The new robots are about 5 microns thick (a micron is one-millionth of a meter), 40 microns wide, and range from 40 to 70 microns in length,” said the Cornell report.

    “Each bot consists of a simple circuit made from silicon photovoltaics—which essentially functions as the torso and brain—and four electrochemical actuators that function as legs.”

    Meanwhile, another team at Stanford University earlier this year revealed a “Transformers-style robot” inspired by Japanese origami, the New York Post reported.

    The “millibot,”much like the “gelbot,” is designed to carry medical payloads directly to a tumor, blood clot, or infection to dispense drugs or investigate a patient’s inner workings, said Dr. Ruike Zhao, one of the project’s co-leaders.

    Zhao claims that the “spinning-enabled wireless amphibious origami millirobot” is “the most robust and multifunctional robot we have ever developed,”  and that it “has broad potential application in the biomedical field.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 23:05

  • Christmas Comes Early For 1 In 5 American Families
    Christmas Comes Early For 1 In 5 American Families

    Christmas traditions vary greatly across the world.

    As Statista’s Felix Richter notes, while some countries hold the main celebration on Christmas Eve, others wait until Christmas Day to get festive and, most importantly at least to kids, to open presents.

    In the United States, most families unwrap their gifts on Christmas Day, with the majority not waiting until breakfast to get cracking or unpacking.

    Infographic: Christmas Comes Early for 1 in 5 American Families | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    According to data from Statista’s Global Consumer Survey, Santa comes early to 1 in 5 families, however, as 18 percent of respondents said they open presents on Christmas Eve in their household.

    None of which makes sense since everyone knows Santa does not actually drop off his haul at your house until after you’re asleep on Christmas Eve!

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 22:40

  • The Dangers Of Paper Bitcoin
    The Dangers Of Paper Bitcoin

    Authored by ‘Captain Sidd’ via BitcoinMagazine.com,

    Are you keeping bitcoin on an exchange?

    Let me tell you a story about what happens when you, and others, leave your bitcoin on exchanges. You might be surprised to hear what that means for your holdings. It might sound a lot like your own.

    Let’s call our character Bill. Bill has been cautiously watching bitcoin for years, hearing about it in passing and reading a few articles. After inadvertently saving a lot of cash due to lockdowns, he decided to dive into bitcoin at last. A friend told him to check out Coinbase, Binance or another popular and “trusted” exchange in order to buy his first chunk of bitcoin.

    So, Bill created an account and uploaded his face, ID, social security number, address and every other relevant detail about his life until he finally reached the “Buy Bitcoin” screen. He picked up a fraction of a bitcoin, but after all that trouble, he thought to himself:

    “I don’t need to learn all these complicated technical details about hardware wallets and self custody — I just want my bitcoin safe.”

    Bill reviewed the exchange’s website and decided that the security experts at the exchange, with their wiz-bang cold storage and state-of-the-art encryption, would be better at securing his bitcoin than he himself would be.

    Bill was very pleased with himself after making that decision — not only did this exchange make investing in bitcoin simple, it gave him peace of mind knowing that someone else was responsible for keeping his assets safe from any kind of theft or malicious activity. After all, why should he have to worry about such things when there were professionals available who could handle them instead?

    Bill has since become quite comfortable with the idea of trusting exchanges with his bitcoin — his coins are now safe from his own mistakes!

    WHEN TRUST DISAPPEARS: THE FALL OF FTX

    When Bill turned on the news one morning and found out that the massive crypto exchange FTX had just paused withdrawals and seemed to “accidentally” lose $10 billion, roughly a third of its market cap, he was shocked.

    How could a firm with its logo on the side of a major sports stadium and a CEO who appeared on CNBC, Bloomberg and in front of the U.S. Congress(!) to talk about digital assets and regulation have lost — or likely stolen — so much from right under everyone’s nose?

    Source

    Now Bill was stuck between a rock and a hard place. He was suspicious of his own exchange, but setting up his own hardware wallet seemed so difficult and scary. It would require him to invest in a physical device, acquire the necessary knowledge to secure it properly and keep track of his seed phrase backup. Even if he figured out the basics, there was still the risk of misplacing his device or improperly storing his backup and losing access to his bitcoin.

    FTX was shocking, but surely Bill’s exchange would never conduct itself the same way. People would see it before it was coming, and he’d have time to get out, right?

    REASONS TO TAKE YOUR BITCOIN OFF EXCHANGES

    It’s clear that trusting your bitcoin to an exchange brings with it the risk that you’ll log in one morning to find that your bitcoin just isn’t there. If you hold your bitcoin yourself using a hardware wallet, this can’t happen.

    However, there’s another big reason it’s important to take your bitcoin off exchanges: the bitcoin price.

    How could self custody affect bitcoin’s price? Everything in economics says that buying and selling affect the market price for a good, not who holds it. However, self custody is very important to price — and it has to do with something I’ll call “paper BTC.”

    INTRODUCING THE NEXT BIG THING: PAPER BTC

    Let’s look at how an exchange works by considering a hypothetical exchange called ExchangeCorp, owned and operated by a jolly entrepreneur named Bernie. ExchangeCorp built an uncomplicated way to buy bitcoin, and hired a team of security experts to make sure hackers are kept at bay. Over time and through great marketing campaigns, ExchangeCorp built trust with traders and investors, drawing many in to store their bitcoin on the exchange.

    When users keep their bitcoin with ExchangeCorp, the CEO Bernie and his team maintain control over those coins. Customers simply have a claim on their coins: they can log in and see their balance as well as request to withdraw their coins. However, if Bernie wants to transfer those coins owed to his customers to other Bitcoin addresses, he’s technically able to do so without any customer’s permission.

    When Bernie kicks up his feet and looks at the balances in ExchangeCorp’s vault, he’s pleased to see tens of thousands of bitcoin that his customers have deposited sitting pretty. Since ExchangeCorp is doing well, more bitcoin are always coming in than going out.

    So Bernie gets a wise idea. He could lend out some of those customer coins, earn some interest, and get the coins back without anyone noticing. He would get richer, and the risk of enough ExchangeCorp customers asking for withdrawals at one time to draw its vault’s massive balance down to zero is miniscule. So Bernie loans out thousands of coins here and there to hedge funds and businesses.

    Source. Traditional banks are even worse than ExchangeCorp. And from March 2020, they can now lend out 100% of your money!

    Now there’s another set of claims to consider. Customers have a claim on their bitcoin at ExchangeCorp, but ExchangeCorp no longer has the actual bitcoin — they only have a claim on the coin they lent out. What customers now have is a claim on Paper BTC held by ExchangeCorp, with the real bitcoin in the hands of borrowers.

    This is where things get weird. All of ExchangeCorp’s customers still think they have a direct claim on real bitcoin held safely by ExchangeCorp. However, that real bitcoin is in fact in the hands of those who borrowed from ExchangeCorp, and those entities are selling it out in the market.

    What happens when ExchangeCorp lends out a large quantity of the bitcoin its customers deposited? A lot of extra bitcoin starts to float around in the market, because investors who think they’re holding actual bitcoin are only holding paper BTC. All of that extra supply of bitcoin in the market absorbs buy pressure, which suppresses the price of bitcoin.

    Let’s look at simple supply and demand here:

    When paper BTC comes into the market, because market participants are unaware that this new supply is not real bitcoin, it has the same effect as increasing the supply of real bitcoin — until the fraud is uncovered. 

    Does this hypothetical story sound anything like the recent news around FTX?

    THE PAPER BTC AT THE CENTER OF THE FTX FRAUD

    The story of ExchangeCorp and Bernie is exactly the story of FTX and its founder Sam Bankman-Fried, with some save-the-world complexes, study drugs and polyamorous orgies redacted.

    By lending out customer funds, FTX essentially inflated the supply of bitcoin by taking advantage of the trust users placed in FTX to safeguard their funds. FTX created tons of paper BTC.

    Just how much paper BTC might FTX have created? We cannot be sure of the exact amounts given its absolutely horrid bookkeeping, but the estimate below suggests FTX had 80,000 paper BTC on its books — bitcoin owed to customers that is not backed by real bitcoin.

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    That would represent a staggering 24% of the roughly 330,000 new bitcoin that were created over the past year through the predictable mining issuance process. That is a ton of extra bitcoin entering the market that nobody — aside from a small group of insiders at FTX — knew about!

    It’s impossible to tell where the price would have gone without that extra bitcoin supply entering the market, but we can be almost certain that the price would have climbed higher than it did in 2021.

    While the FTX collapse is recent and still unfolding, history has a few cautionary tales to tell about the dangers of paper assets and price manipulation. The story of gold’s failure to resist centralized capture, for instance, can tell us where Bitcoin is headed if we continue to trust exchanges and third parties to hold our bitcoin for us.

    THE FALL OF GOLD

    Gold was once used in daily transactions — it takes no more than a visit to a museum of ancient history to see the collections of old gold coins once circulating in local markets. The traditional view of the demise of gold as a transactional currency was that it became too cumbersome or too valuable to continue to function well as a means to buy groceries and beer.

    However, this story omits a few key components that only reveal themselves when we trace the evolution that societies took from gold coins to paper bills and digital bank accounts.

    Centuries ago, banks started taking customer’s gold in exchange for bank notes — giving customers a measure of security for their gold and a more convenient means of transacting. However, entrusting a bank with your precious metal meant the bank was able to lend it out or make bad investments without the depositor’s consent. When a bank was caught between bad loans and a high rate of depositor withdrawals, they had to declare bankruptcy and shut down — leaving many depositors penniless, holding paper claims on gold now worth nothing at all.

    Then central banks came along to “fix” the problem of bankrupt banks leaving depositors penniless. Central banks held gold for people and commercial banks, giving them banknotes from the central bank as receipts for their gold. By 1960, central bank official holdings accounted for about 50% of all aboveground gold stocks, with their banknotes circulating freely. Commercial banks and individuals didn’t mind, since each note was convertible to a set weight of gold by the central bank that issued it.

    Notice the note in the upper left? This $5 Federal Reserve note — also known as a $5 bill — is redeemable in gold. Source

    This would have worked well, except that central banks — especially the Federal Reserve in the U.S. — started creating more bills than they had gold to back. Creating more bills than the Fed had gold to back was essentially creating paper gold, since each bill was a claim on gold. Doing this in secret meant the Fed was manipulating the price of gold, given the extra circulating supply which the market was not aware of. When many depositors of gold at the Federal Reserve — like the French government — started questioning the Fed’s gold holdings and creating the threat of a run on gold in the U.S., the U.S. government had to intervene.

    In 1971, this came to a head with the Nixon shock. One night, President Nixon announced the U.S. would temporarily stop allowing depositors to trade in their Federal Reserve notes for the gold they promised.

    This temporary halt in withdrawals was never lifted. Since all currencies were connected to gold through the U.S. dollar under the Bretton Woods agreement, the Nixon Shock meant that the entire world went off the gold standard at once. All currencies were now just pieces of paper, instead of notes giving the holder a claim on a quantity of gold. 

    Source

    This was only achievable because gold, over time, was deposited into commercial banks and then to central banks. Once central banks held most of the gold, they could manipulate the price of gold and remove it entirely from daily commerce. Everyday people chose the convenience of paper notes over the security of holding gold, and paid the price.

    Instead of a neutral money backed by a precious metal that is difficult to dig up and impossible to synthesize, currencies became easy to print and thus highly politicized. Keeping the dollar at the top of the food chain no longer required restraint and good stewardship to ensure its backing in gold. Instead, it required military expeditions and strong policing to ensure global governments and citizens continued to use the dollar to transact.

    A return to gold at this point would be impractical — the world’s commercial networks span too great a distance with transactions happening at too high a speed. With paper currency and eventually digital banking systems, what we gained in speed and convenience we lost in soundness and neutrality. We lost our savings, our social cohesion and our political institutions as a result.

    PREVENTING BITCOIN’S FALL

    Taking your bitcoin off of your exchange is not just good practice for your own security, it’s protecting the price of your bitcoin as well. Our freedoms depend on individuals having control over their own wealth. When we entrust our wealth to companies or states, we go down the path we witnessed with gold.

    Thanks to bitcoin’s divisibility and digital nature, it overcomes the hurdles that held gold back from supporting our modern, interconnected economy. Bitcoin can support a global marketplace, but it will only get there if we each hold our own bitcoin.

    Don’t let the banksters and bureaucrats manipulate the price of your bitcoin: take it off the exchange and get it on your own hardware wallet.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 22:15

  • Driver That Caused 8 Car Pile-Up In Bay Area Last Month Claims Tesla's Full Self Driving "Braked Unexpectedly"
    Driver That Caused 8 Car Pile-Up In Bay Area Last Month Claims Tesla’s Full Self Driving “Braked Unexpectedly”

    A driver involved in an eight car crash last month told authorities that Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” software “braked unexpectedly” and caused the pile-up.

    A California Highway Patrol traffic crash report, viewed by CNN, said that the accident, which occurred in the San Francisco Bay Area and led to nine people being treated for minor injuries, happened when the Tesla slowed to a stop.

    The crash report showed “the Tesla vehicle changing lanes and slowing to a stop”, CNN wrote. They obtained the report via a public records request this week. 

    Back in December, the California Highway Patrol was unable to confirm whether or not “Full Self Driving” was active at the time of the accident. A highway patrol spokesperson told CNN they still could not confirm, and that Tesla would have the pertinent information. 

    The accident took place during lunchtime on Thanksgiving Day on I-80 east of the Bay Bridge. As the report notes, the pile up happened just hours after Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that “Full Self Driving” was available to anyone in North America who requested it. 

    According to CNN, the report said that “the Tesla Model S was traveling at about 55 mph and shifted into the far left-hand lane, but then braked abruptly, slowing the car to about 20 mph. That led to a chain reaction that ultimately involved eight vehicles to crash, all of which had been traveling at typical highway speeds.”

    As we have noted this year, the NHTSA is in the midst of a litany of investigations into Tesla’s Autopilot, including several accidents that wound up killing motorcyclists. 

    The first accident was at 4:47am, July 7 on State Route 91, on a freeway in Riverside, California, the report says. A Model Y collided with a green Yamaha V-Star motorcycle that was ahead of it and the driver of the bike was ejected from his motorcycle. 

    Another crash happened at 1:09am on July 24,  on Interstate 15 near Draper, Utah. A Model 3 was behind a Harley Davidson, the Utah Department of Public Safety said. 

    “The driver of the Tesla did not see the motorcyclist and collided with the back of the motorcycle, which threw the rider from the bike,” the statement says. The rider of the Harley was pronounced dead at the scene. The driver told authorities he had Autopilot on, the report says. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 21:50

  • Inflation, Recession, & Declining US Hegemony
    Inflation, Recession, & Declining US Hegemony

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    In the distant future, we might look back on 2022 and 2023 as pivotal years. So far, we have seen the conflict between America and the two Asian hegemons emerge into the open, leading to a self-inflicted energy crisis on the western alliance. The forty-year trend of declining interest rates has ended, replaced by a new rising trend the full consequences and duration of which are as yet unknown.

    The western alliance enters the New Year with increasing fears of recession. Monetary policy makers face an acute dilemma: do they prioritise inflation of prices by raising interest rates, or do they lean towards yet more monetary stimulation to ensure that financial markets stabilise, their economies do not suffer recession, and government finances are not driven into crisis?

    This is the conundrum that will play out in 2023 for the US, UK, EU, Japan, and others in the alliance camp. But economic conditions are starkly different in continental Asia. China is showing the early stages of making an economic comeback. Russia’s economy has not been badly damaged by sanctions, as the western media would have us believe. All members of Asian trade organisations are enjoying the benefits of cheap oil and gas while the western alliance turns its back on fossil fuels.

    The message sent to Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and even to OPEC+ is that their future markets are with the Asian hegemons. Predictably, they are all gravitating into this camp. They are abandoning the American-led sphere of influence.

    2023 will see the consequences of Saudi Arabia ending the petrodollar. Energy exporters are feeling their way towards new commercial arrangements in a bid to replace yesterday’s dollar. There’s talk of a new Asian trade settlement currency. But we can expect oil exports to be offset by inward investment, particularly between Saudi Arabia, the GCC, and China. The most obvious surplus emerging in 2023 is of internationally held dollars, whose use-value is set to drop away leaving it as an empty shell. It amounts to a perfect storm for the dollar, and all those who sail with it.

    Those of us who live long enough to look back on these years are likely to find them to have been pivotal for both currencies and global alliances. They will likely mark the end of western supremacy and the emergence of a new, Asian economic domination.

    The interest rate threat to the west’s currencies

    It is a mark of how bad the condition of Western economies has become, when interest rate rises of only a few cent are enough to threaten to precipitate an economic crisis. The blame can be laid entirely at the door of post-classical macroeconomics. And like a dog with a bone, their high priests refuse to let go. Despite all the evidence to the contrary, they would now have you believe that inflation is transient after all, though they have conceded the possibility of inflation targets being raised slightly. But the wider concern is that even though interest rates have yet to properly reflect the extent of currency debasement, they have risen enough to tip the world into recession. 

    In their way of thinking, it is either inflation or recession, not both. A recession is falling demand and falling demand leads to falling prices, according to macroeconomic opinions. When both inflation and a recession are present, they cannot explain it and it does not accord with their computer models. Therefore, government economists insist that consumer price rises will return to the 2% target or thereabouts, because rising interest rates will trigger a recession and demand will fall. It will just take a little longer than they originally thought.

    They now saying that the danger is no longer just inflation. Instead, a balance must be struck. Interest rate policy must take the growing evidence of recession into account, which means that bond yields should stop rising and after their earlier falls equity markets should stabilise. For them, this is the path to salvation. In pursuing this line, the authorities and a group thinking establishment have had success in tamping down inflation expectations, aided by weakening energy prices. 

    Since March, West Texas intermediate crude has retraced 50% of its rise from March 2020 to March 2022. Natural gas has fallen forty per cent from its August high. If the western media is to be believed, Russia is continually on the brink of failure, the suggestion being that price normality will return soon. And the inflationary pressures from rising energy and food prices will disappear.

    What is really happening is that bank credit is now beginning to contract. Bank credit represents over 90% of currency and credit in circulation and its contraction is a serious matter. It is a change in bankers’ mass psychology, where greed for profits from lending satisfied by balance sheet expansion is replaced by caution and fear of losses, leading to balance sheet contraction. This was the point behind Jamie Dimon’s speech at a banking conference in New York last June, when he modified his description of the economic outlook from stormy to hurricane force. Coming from the most influential commercial banker in the world, it was the clearest indication we can possibly have of where we were in the cycle of bank credit: the world is on the edge of a major credit downturn.

    Even though their analysis is flawed, macroeconomists are right to be very worried. Over nine-tenths of US currency and bank deposits now face a meaningful contraction. This is a particular problem earlier exacerbated by covid lockdowns and for businesses affected by supply chain issues. It gives commercial banks a huge problem: if they begin to whip the credit rug out from under non-financial businesses, they will simply create an economic collapse which would threaten their entire loan book.

    It is far easier for a banker to call in loans financing positions in financial assets. And it is also a simple matter to call in and liquidate financial asset collateral when any loan begins to sour. This is why the financial sector and relevant assets have been in the firing line so far.

    Central banks see these evolving conditions as their worst nightmare. They are what led to the collapse of thousands of American banks following the Wall Street crash of 1929-1932. In blaming the private sector for the 1930s slump which followed and was directly identified with the collapse in bank credit, central bankers and Keynesian economists have vowed that it must never happen again.

    But because this tin-can has been kicked down the road for far too long, we are not just staring at the end of a ten-year cycle of bank credit, but potentially at a multi-decade super-cyclical event, rivalling the 1930s. And given the greater elemental forces today, potentially even worse than that.

    We can easily appreciate that unless the Fed and other central banks lighten up on their restrictive monetary policies, a stock market crash is bound to ensue. And this is what we saw when the interest rate trend began a new rising trajectory last January. For the Fed, preventing a stock market crash is almost certainly a more immediate priority than protecting the currency. It is not that the Fed doesn’t care, it’s because they cannot do both. Their mandate incorporates unemployment, and their ingrained neo-Keynesian philosophies are also at stake.

    Consequently, while we can see the dangers from contracting bank credit, we can also see that the Fed and other major central banks have prioritised financial market stability over increasing interest rates to properly reflect their currencies’ loss of purchasing power. The pause in energy price rises together with media claims that Russia will be defeated have helped to give markets a welcome but temporary period of stability.

    The policy of threatening continually higher interest rates must be temporary as well. In effect, monetary policy makers have no practical alternative to prioritising the prevention of bank credit deflation over supporting their currencies. Realistically, they have no option but to fight recession with yet more inflation of central bank currency funding increased government budget deficits, and through further expansion of commercial bank reserves on its own balance sheet, the counterpart of quantitative easing. 

    Besides central bank initiatives to keep bond yields as low as practicably possible, runaway government budget deficits due to falling tax income and extra spending to counteract the decline in economic activity will need to be funded. And given that the world is on a dollar standard, in the early stages of a recession the Fed will probably assume that the consequences for foreign exchange rates of a new round of currency debasement can be ignored. While currency debasement can then be expected to accelerate for the dollar, all the other major central banks can be expected to cooperate. The point about global economic cooperation is that no central bank is permitted to follow an independent line.

    The private sector establishment errs in thinking that the choice is between inflation or recession. It is no longer a choice, but a question of systemic survival. A contraction in commercial bank credit and an offsetting expansion of central bank credit will almost certainly take place. The former leads to a slump in economic activity and the latter is a commitment too large for an inflating currency to bear. It is not stagflation, a condition which according to neo-Keynesian beliefs should not occur, but a doppelgänger rerun of what did for John Law and France’s economy in 1720. The inconvenient truth is that policies of monetary stimulation invariably end with the impoverishment of everyone.

    The role of credit and the final solution

    To clarify how events are likely to unfold in 2023, we must revisit the basics of monetary theory, and the difference between money and credit. It is the persistent debasement of the latter which has been the problem and is likely to condition the plans for any nation seeking to escape from the monetary consequences of a shift in hegemonic power from the western alliance to the Russian Chinese partnership.

    It is probably too late for any practical solution to the policy dilemma faced by monetary policy committees in western central banks today. When commercial bankers collectively awaken to the lending risks created in large part by their earlier optimism, survival instincts kick in and they will reduce their exposure to risk wherever possible. A credit cycle of boom and bust is the consequence. Inevitably in the bust phase, not only are malinvestments weeded out, but over-leveraged banks fail as well. While the intention is to smooth out the cyclical effects on the economy, the response of the state and its central bank invariably makes things worse, with monetary policy undermining the currency.

    It is important to appreciate that with a sound currency system, which is a currency that only changes in its quantity at the behest of its users, excessive credit expansion must be discouraged. The opposite is encouraged by central banks. Extreme leverage of asset to equity ratios for systemically important banks of well over twenty times in Japan and the Eurozone are entirely due to central bank policies of suppressing interest rates. It is only by extreme leverage that commercial banks, which are no more than dealers in credit, can make profits from the slimmest of credit margins when zero and negative deposit rates are forced upon them.

    Since bank credit is reflected in customer deposits, a cycle of excessive bank credit expansion and contraction becomes economically destructive. The solution advocated by many economists of the Austrian school is to ban bank credit entirely, replacing mutuum deposits, whereby the money or currency becomes the bank’s property and the depositor a creditor, with commodatum deposits where ownership remains with the depositor. Separately, under these arrangements banks act as arrangers of finance for savers wishing to make their savings available to borrowers for a return.

    The problem with this remedy is that of the chicken and the egg. Production requires an advance of capital to provide products at a profit in due course. The real world of free markets therefore requires credit to function. And savings for capital reinvestment are also initially funded out of credit. So, whether the neo-Austrians like it or not we are stuck with mutuum deposits and banks which function as dealers in credit. 

    That is as far as we can go with commercial banks and bank credit. The other form of credit in public circulation is the liability of the issuer of banknotes. To stabilise their value, the issuer must be prepared to exchange them for gold coin, which is and always has been legal money. And once the issuer has established sufficient gold reserves, the issue of any additional banknotes must be covered by additional gold coin backing.

    But much more must be done. Government budget deficits must not be permitted except strictly on a temporary basis, and total government spending (including state, regional, and local governments) reduced to the smallest possible segment of the economy. It means pursuing a deliberate policy of rescinding legal obligations for government agencies to provide services and welfare for the people, retaining only a bare minimum for government to function in providing laws, national defence and for the protection of the interests of everyone without favour. All else can only be the responsibility of individuals arranging and paying for services themselves. It means that most bureaucrats employed unproductively in government must be released and made available to be redeployed in the private sector productively. A work ethic perforce will return to replace an expectation that personal idleness will always be subsidised.

    Given political realities, this cannot happen except as a considered response following a major credit, currency, and economic meltdown. It is a case of crisis first, solution second. Therefore, there is no practical alternative to the continual debasement of currencies until their users reject them entirely as worthless.

    Money is only gold, and all the rest is credit

    For a lack of any alternative outcome, the eventual collapse of unbacked currencies is all but guaranteed. To appreciate the dynamics behind such an outcome, we must distinguish between money and credit. Currency in circulation is not legal money, being only a form of credit issued as banknotes by a central bank. It has the same standing as credit in the form of deposits held in favour of the commercial banks. The distinction between money and credit, with money wrongly being assumed to be banknotes is denied by the macroeconomic establishment today. Officially and legally, money is only gold coin. It is also silver coin, though silver’s official monetary role fell into disuse in nineteenth century Europe and America. 

    Gold and silver coin as money were codified under the Roman Emperor Justinian in the sixth century and is still the case legally in Europe today. In English law, the unification of the Court of Chancery and common law in 1875 formally recognised the Roman position, and gold sovereigns, which were the monetary standard from 1820, became unquestionably recognised as money in common law from then on.

    Attempts by governments to restrict or ban ownership of gold as money must not be confused with the legal position. FDR’s executive order in 1933 banning American citizens from owning gold did not change the status of money. Nor did similar government moves elsewhere. And the neo-Keynesian denigration of a gold standard doesn’t alter its status either. Nor do the claims from cryptocurrency enthusiasts that their schemes are a modern replacement for gold’s monetary role. As John Pierpont Morgan stated in his testimony before Congress in 1912, “Gold is money. Everything else is credit”. He was not expressing an opinion but stating a legal fact.

    That gold does not commonly circulate as a medium of exchange is explained by Gresham’s law, which states that bad money drives out the good. Originally describing the difference between clipped coins and their wholly intact counterparts, Gresham’s law also applies to gold’s relationship with currency. Worldwide, unrelated societies hoard gold coin, spending currency banknotes and bank deposits first, which are universally recognised as lower forms of media of exchange. Even central banks hoard gold. And as they have progressively distanced themselves from their roles as servants of the public, they refuse to allow the public access to their gold reserves in exchange for their banknotes.

    The importance of gold as a store of value, that is as sound money, appears to be difficult to understand for people not accustomed to regarding it as such. Instead, they regard it is a speculative investment, which can be held in securitised or derivative form while it is profitable to do so. When it comes to hedging a declining currency’s purchasing power, the preference today is for assets that outperform the cost of borrowing. As an example of this, Figure 1 shows London’s residential housing priced in fiat sterling and gold. Housing is the most common form of public investment in the UK, further benefiting from tax exemptions for owner-occupiers.

    According to government data, since 1968 when house price statistics began median house prices in London have risen on average by 115 times. But priced in gold, they have risen only 29% in 54 years. With prices having generally risen by less outside London and its commuter belt, some areas might have seen falls in prices measured in gold.

    It is virtually impossible to get people to understand the implications. They correctly point out the utility of having somewhere to live, which is not reflected in prices. They might also point out that property held by landlords produces a rental income. Furthermore, most buyers leverage their investment returns by having a mortgage.

    In investing terms, these arguments are entirely valid. But they only prove that the purpose of owning an asset is to obtain a return or utility from it, with which we can all agree. The purpose of money or currency is different: it is a medium for purchasing an asset which will give you a benefit. What is not understood is that far from giving property owners a capital return which exceeds the debasement of the currency, they have just about kept pace with it. And if you had bought property elsewhere in the UK, your capital values might even have fallen, measured in real legal money, which is gold.

    Since the end of the Bretton Woods agreement, the consequences of currency debasement for asset prices such as residential property have hardly mattered. The debasement of currencies has never been violent enough to undermine assumptions that residential property will always retain its value in the long run. Other assets, such as a portfolio of financial equities are seen to offer similar benefits of apparent protection against currency debasement. But we now appear to be on the cusp of a major currency upheaval. The global banking system is more highly leveraged on balance sheet to equity measures than ever before, and bank credit is beginning to contract. All the major central banks have undeclared loses which wipe out their nominal equity, affecting their own credibility as backstops to their commercial banking systems. Systemic risks are escalating, even though market participants have yet to realise it. And as economic activity turns down, government budget deficits are going to rapidly escalate. A practical remedy for the situation cannot be entertained, so the debasement of currencies is bound to accelerate. Mortgage borrowing costs are already rising, undermining affordability of residential property in fiat money terms.

    The relationship between currency and real money, which is gold coin, will almost certainly break down. Measured in gold, a banking and currency crisis will have the effect of driving residential property prices significantly lower, while they could be maintained or even move somewhat higher measured in more rapidly depreciating fiat currencies.

    The transition from financialised fiat currencies to… what?

    There is an overriding issue which we must consider now that the long-term decline of interest rates appears to have come to an end, and that is how the dollar will fare in future. While the dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power since the ending of Bretton Woods, it has generally been gradual enough not to undermine its role as the world’s international medium of exchange and for the determination of commodity prices. It has retained sufficient value to act as the world’s reserve currency and is the principal weapon by which America has exercised her hegemony.

    It is in its role as the weapon for waging financial wars which may finally lead to the dollar’s undoing, as well as undermining the purchasing powers of the currencies aligned with it. By cutting Russia off from the SWIFT settlement system, thereby rendering her fiat currency reserves valueless, the western alliance hoped that together with sanctions Russia would be brought to her knees. The policy has failed, as sanctions usually do, while the message sent to all non-aligned nations was that America and its western alliance could render national currency reserves valueless without notice. Consequently, there has been a worldwide rethink over the dangers of relying on dollars, and for that matter the other major currencies issued by member nations of the western alliance.

    At this time of transition away from a weaponised dollar, there is a general uncertainty in nations aligned with the Russian Chinese axis over how to respond, other than to sell fiat currencies to buy more gold bullion. But the sheer quantities of fiat currency relative to the available bullion suggests that at current values the bullion is not available in sufficient quantities to credibly turn fiat currencies into gold substitutes. Nevertheless, it would be logical for the gold-rich Russian Chinese axis and nations in their sphere of influence to protect their own currencies from a rapidly developing fiat currency catastrophe. So far, none of them appear to be prepared to do so by introducing gold standards for the benefit of their citizens.

    Only Russia, under pressure from currency and trade sanctions has loosely tied its rouble to energy and commodity exports. In the vaguest of terms, it might be regarded as a synthetic equivalent of linking the rouble to gold. Why this is so is illustrated in Figure 2.

    Measured in fiat currencies, the oil price is exceedingly volatile, while in true money, gold, it is relatively stable. Measured in gold, the oil price today is about 20% lower than it was in 1950. Since then, the maximum oil price in gold has been a doubling and the minimum a fall of 85%. That compares with a rise in US dollars of 5,350% and no fall at all. Undoubtedly, if gold had traded free from statist intervention and speculation in currency and commodity markets and from the effects of fiat-induced economic booms and busts, the price of oil in gold would most likely have been even steadier.

    By insisting that those dubbed by Putin as the unfriendly nations must buy roubles to pay for Russian oil, demand for roubles on the foreign exchanges became linked to demand for Russian oil, which in turn is linked more closely to gold than the unfriendlies’ currencies. But it seems that in official minds, making this link between the rouble, oil, and gold is a step too far. When it comes to replacing the dollar with a new trade currency for the Asian powers, their initial discussions have suggested a more broadly based solution.

    The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), consisting mainly of a central Asian subset of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) earlier this year announced that plans for a trade settlement currency were being considered, backed by a mixture of commodities and the currencies of member states. 

    So far, members of the SCO have restricted their discussion to ways of replacing the dollar for the purpose of transactions between them, a long-term project driven not so much by change in Asia but by US trade aggression and American hegemonic dollar policies over time. Following Russian sanctions imposed by the West, it is likely that the dangers of an immediate dollar crisis are now being more urgently addressed by governments and central banks throughout Asia. 

    With the West plunging into a combined systemic and currency crisis, no national government outside the dollar-based system appears to know what to do. Only Russia has been forced into action. But even the Russians are feeling their way, with vague reports that they are looking at a gold standard solution, and others that they are considering Sergey Glazyev’s EAEU trade currency project. As well as heading a committee set up to advise on a new trade settlement currency, Glazyev is a senior economic advisor to Vladimir Putin.

    From the little information made available, it appears that Glazyev’s EAEU monetary committee is ruling out a gold standard for the new trade currency. Instead, it has been considering alternative structures without achieving any agreement so far. But for the project to go ahead, proposals reported to include national currencies in its valuation basket must be abandoned. Not only is this an area where Glazyev is unlikely to obtain a consensus easily from member states, but to include a range of fiat currencies is unsound and will not satisfy the ultimate objective, which is to find a credible replacement for the US dollar for cross-border trade settlements. For confidence in the new currency to be maintained, the structure must be both simple and transparent.

    Since the currency committee’s press release earlier this year, there have been further developments likely to influence it construction. Led by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council is turning its back on the dollar as payment for oil and gas. Again, this development is attributable to climate change policies of the US-led western alliance. Not only has the alliance demonstrated that foreign reserves held in its fiat currencies can be rendered valueless overnight, but climate change policies send a clear message that for the GCC the future of their trade is not with the western alliance. For long-term stable trade relationships, they must turn to the Russian Chinese axis.

    It is happening before our eyes. China has signed a 27-year supply agreement with Qatar for its gas. President Biden attempted to secure a agreement with Saudi Arabia for additional oil output. He left with nothing. President Xi visited earlier this month and secured a long-term energy and investment agreement, whereby Saudi’s currency exposure to the yuan is minimised through Chinese capital investment programmes in the kingdom

    Already, an increase in China’s money supply is an early indication that propelled by cheap energy and infrastructure investment programmes, her economy is in the early stages of a new growth phase, while the western alliance faces a potentially deep recession. The currency effect is likely to be supportive of the yuan/dollar cross rate, which the Saudis are likely to have factored into their calculations. But they will almost certainly need more than that. They will want to influence settlement currencies for the balance of their trade. Their options are to minimise balances on the back of inward investment flows, as mentioned above. They can seek to influence the construction of the proposed EAEU trade settlement currency. Or they can build their gold reserves, to the extent they might wish to hedge currencies accumulating in their reserves.

    For the western alliance, the death knell for the petrodollar means that 2023 will see a substantial reduction of dollar holdings in the official reserves of all nations in the Russian Chinese axis and those friendly to it. The accumulation of dollars in foreign reserves since the end of the Bretton Woods regime is considerable, and its reversal is bound to create additional difficulties for the US authorities. Foreign owned US Treasuries are starting to be sold, and the $32 trillion mountain of financial assets and bank deposits are set to be substantially reduced. The potential for a run on the dollar, driving up commodity input prices in dollars, is likely to become a considerable problem for both the US and the entire western alliance in 2023.

    Conclusion

    We have noted the deteriorating systemic and monetary prospects for fiat currencies, predominantly those of the dollar-based Western currency system. Both sound economic and Marxist theory indicates that a final crisis leading to the end of these fiat currencies was going to happen anyway, and the financial war against Russia has become an additional factor accelerating their collapse. 

    After suppressing interest rates to zero and below, rising interest rates are finally being forced upon the monetary authorities by markets. With good reason, it has become fashionable to describe developments as an evolution from a currency environment driven by and dependent on financial assets into one driven by commodities — in the words of Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar, Bretton Woods II is ending, and Bretton Woods III is upon us.

    For this reason, there is growing interest in how a new world of currencies based somehow on commodities or commodity-based economies will evolve. This year, Russia successfully protected its rouble by linking it to energy and commodity exports and in the process undermined Western currencies.

    While it is always a mistake to predict timing, the fact that no one in the financial establishment is debating how to use gold reserves to protect their currencies clearly indicates that we are still early in the evolution of the developing fiat currency crisis. Officially at least, the forward thinkers planning a new pan-Asian trade settlement currency alternative to the dollar are looking at backing it with commodities and not a gold standard. Since Sergei Glazyev announced an enquiry into the matter, the Middle Eastern pivot away from the petrodollar to Asian currencies not only injects a new urgency into his committee’s deliberations but is bound to have a significant bearing on its outcome.

     The implications for the western alliance play no part in current monetary policies. Their central banks act as if there’s no danger to their own currencies from these developments. But any doubt that fiat currencies will be replaced by currencies linked to tangible commodities, whether represented by gold or not, is fading in the light of developments.

    With neither the economic establishment nor the public having a basic understanding of what is money and why it is not currency, it is hardly surprising that current financial and economic developments are so poorly understood, and the correct remedies for our current monetary and economic conditions are so readily dismissed.

    These errors and omissions are set to be addressed in 2023.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 21:25

  • China's Post-Zero-COVID Surge Is Infecting 37 Million People Per Day
    China’s Post-Zero-COVID Surge Is Infecting 37 Million People Per Day

    In a stunning admission, according to estimates from the government’s top health authority, nearly 37 million people in China may have been infected with Covid-19 on a single day this week.

    This is a shockingly stark divergence from the extremely low ‘official’ case count (which reported just 62,592 symptomatic) and utterly dwarfs the previous global daily record of about 4 million, set in January 2022, as Omicron spread…

    The new data was provided in a closed-door meeting by Sun Yang, a deputy director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, on Wednesday.

    According to two people familiar with the matter, The FT reports that Chinese officials estimate about 250mn people or 18 per cent of the population were infected with Covid-19 in the first 20 days of December as Beijing abruptly abandons its Zero-COVID strategy that for almost three years has crushed economic growth (and citizens’ freedoms).

    As @MrSeanHaines noted on Twitter, it’s amazing the 180 Chinese state media have done on their Covid messaging of late.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Bloomberg notes that it is unclear how the Chinese health regulator came up with its estimate, as the country shut down its once ubiquitous network of PCR testing booths earlier this month. Precise infection rates have been difficult to establish in other countries during the pandemic, as hard-to-get laboratory tests were supplanted by home testing with results that weren’t centrally collected.

    Sun said the rate of Covid’s spread in the country was still rising and estimated that more than half of the population in Beijing and Sichuan were already infected, the people briefed on the meeting said.

    And, of course, 99.9% of those people will be just fine.

    This is extremely notable obviously as while China is experiencing its first real wave of infection, it is massive and will likely mean almost the entire nation will have natural immunity in two to three months… which will allow the economy to restart fully.

    Chen Qin, chief economist at data consultancy MetroDataTech, forecasts China’s current wave will peak between mid-December and late January in most cities, based on an analysis of online keyword searches.

    The lack of information made public by China on its Covid wave has led Washington and the World Health Organization to push Beijing to be more transparent on case counts, disease severity, hospital admission figures and other health statistics that have been made widely available by other countries.

    “It is very important for all countries, including China, to focus on people getting vaccinated, making testing and treatment available and, importantly, sharing information with the world about what they’re experiencing,” U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said at a Dec. 22 press briefing.

    “It has implications not just for China, but for the entire world. So we would like to see that happen,” he added.

    Finally, we note that The Epoch Times reports ten famous Chinese medical experts passed away soon after Beijing lifted its zero-COVID policy. Most of them were members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and two were allegedly involved in the live organ harvesting of prisoners of conscience.

    While the Chinese media reported the deaths resulting from “illness,” they didn’t provide additional information, causing Chinese netizens to speculate.

    A Chinese netizen commented, “It is indeed a bit strange that they died in December one after another—especially on the 16th, 17th, 18th, and 19th.” Another said: “They all died of ‘illness’ without specific reasons. It’s hard not to contemplate why.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 21:00

  • Unleashing Clean Fusion Power Is America's Best Defense Against Tyranny
    Unleashing Clean Fusion Power Is America’s Best Defense Against Tyranny

    Authored by Lawrence Kadish via The Gatestone Institute,

    It may prove to be as historic as the harnessing of fire, invention of the wheel, or the channeling of electricity. It will certainly rank on a par with the first release of nuclear energy in an experimental Chicago reactor or its first test as an atomic weapon near Los Alamos, New Mexico.

    It is the first successful experiment to extract power from controlled fusion.

    It may take a decade or more to convert their successful experiment into commercially available power, but what it offers is an inexhaustible, readily available source of clean energy that eliminates pollution, greenhouse gases, or radioactive waste from the current generation of nuclear reactors.

    In short, it has the means to be as powerful and transformative than any advance in energy technology mankind as ever deployed to run its society.

    Fusion occurs within our Sun and the stars that fill our night sky. The process combines hydrogen atoms, turning it into helium and producing the sunlight that allows civilization to exist orbiting some 93 million miles from the Sun. In an effort to replicate that law of physics, American scientists have used reactors and lasers to determine how they can harness its enormous power. (It has been estimated that a modest container of the “fusion fuel” is equivalent to one million gallons of oil, generating some 9 million kilowatt hours of electricity.)

    As we discovered with the invention of the atomic bomb, physics can’t be kept as a national security secret.

    The Soviets were working on trying to figure out how to harness fusion for something other than a hydrogen bomb more than half a century ago. Before the fall of the Soviet Union, there was even a mutual assistance program announced by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev.

    But leadership in energy technology is crucial to a nation that is founded on freedom and committed to remaining a global superpower for good. America has already invested hundreds of millions of dollars into fusion research and it is beginning to pay off in this most recent announcement of a breakthrough. New and expanded research efforts are being announced by America’s scientific community in concert with universities such as MIT and with Western nations. They are suggesting the first commercial power station might come online as early as the 2030s.

    Smart oil company executives who also recognize the power of physics will immediately understand that fossil fuels could very well become a museum curiosity if the key to unlocking the power of fusion has just been found. If that is the case, they too should begin to invest in these advances, accelerating our leadership in fusion while ensuring they have a seat at the table when the Oil Age comes to an end.

    It is rare for us to recognize a turning point in humankind’s history. Too often it comes with the declaration of war. In this case, it is the sharp light of lasers illuminating a power as old as creation, one that is about to change the course of civilization for the better.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 20:35

  • Sen. Lindsey Graham: Someone Must "Take Out" Putin For War To End
    Sen. Lindsey Graham: Someone Must “Take Out” Putin For War To End

    Senator Lindsey Graham this week repeated his call for Russian President Vladimir Putin to be assassinated, telling Fox News in a live interview that the Ukraine war will only end if someone “takes Putin out”. 

    “How does this war end? When Russia breaks, and they take Putin out. Anything short of that, the war’s gonna continue,” Graham said on Wednesday’s America Reports on Fox.

    Getty Images

    Graham said Moscow’s invasion won’t succeed because the United States is “in it to win it, and the only way you’re gonna win it is to break the Russian military and have somebody in Russia take Putin out to give the Russian people a new lease on life.”

    He also called on Washington and NATO to keep up arms and support for Ukraine “completely, all in without equivocation,” and further that ramping up long-range missile transfers to Kiev would help “dislodge” Russian forces from the Donbas, and even Crimea.

    He additionally said that larger drones would “kill tons of Russians without losing any Ukrainians in the endeavor” – and essentially called for giving Zelensky everything he’s asking for. 

    During Zelensky’s Wednesday address to Congress, which actually saw less than half of House Republicans show up, which was in part due to holiday travel and weather given also the visit was unannounced until the day prior, the Ukrainian leader suggested the US should even send tanks and aircraft. “I can assure you that Ukrainian soldiers can perfectly operate American tanks and planes themselves,” he had said during the 30-minute speech. 

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    It wasn’t the first time Graham called for Putin’s assassination on a national news program. In March he made similar statements.

    At the time this prompted an official reaction from the White House distancing President Biden from the assassination comments. The White House Press Secretary had said “that is not the position of the United States government and certainly not a statement you’d hear come from the mouth of anybody working in this administration.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 20:10

  • FDA Approves Monoclonal Antibody To Treat COVID-19 For First Time
    FDA Approves Monoclonal Antibody To Treat COVID-19 For First Time

    Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has, for the first time, approved a monoclonal antibody to treat COVID-19 in hospitalized patients.

    The logo of Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche in Basel on Feb. 2, 2011. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images)

    Healthcare company Roche’s Actemra (tocilizumab) intravenous (IV) was approved by the FDA to treat severe COVID-19 in adults, the company announced on Wednesday.

    Specifically, the drug is approved in cases where the patient is hospitalized and is receiving systemic corticosteroids, as well as requiring supplemental oxygen, non-invasive or invasive mechanical ventilation, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

    It is the first FDA-approved monoclonal antibody to treat COVID-19, the company stated.

    Monoclonal antibodies are laboratory-created proteins that mimic natural antibodies the body produces to fight off harmful pathogens, such as the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19.

    Actemra does not directly target SARS-CoV-2 but addresses the inflammation that occurs from COVID-19 infection. The monoclonal antibody reduces inflammation by blocking the interleukin-6 receptor.

    The drug is recommended to be administered as a single 60-minute IV infusion.

    According to Roche, more than one million hospitalized COVID-19 patients have been treated with Actemra worldwide since the start of the pandemic.

    The drug was previously FDA-authorized for emergency use in hospitalized adults and pediatric COVID-19 patients (above 2 years of age) back in June 2021.

    Right now, the FDA has not approved Actemra to treat hospitalized patients aged 2 to under 18, but the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) still applies.

    Actemra is not authorized or approved for the treatment of outpatients with COVID-19.

    According to Roche, Actemra is approved for use in more than 30 countries for patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19. This includes the European Union, Japan, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Russia, and Brazil. It is also provisionally approved in Australia, and authorized for emergency use in Ghana, Mexico, and Korea for certain patients hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19.

    The drug has also been recommended and prequalified by the World Health Organization (WHO).

    In the United States, Actemra is the seventh FDA-approved indication since it was launched in 2010. It has been approved for use against other inflammatory diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 19:45

  • Great News NFL Fans: Avocado Prices Have Crashed
    Great News NFL Fans: Avocado Prices Have Crashed

    After surging to record highs in the first half of 2022, wholesale avocado prices crashed in late summer into fall time, just as the NFL season kicked off. Guacamole is the star player at any football party, and this season, there’s a sign of relief that avocado prices are back to affordable levels. 

    For a 20-pound box of avocados from the state of Michoacan, Mexico (the central hub of Mexican avocado production), prices jumped as high as $51 in May. Some main drivers in igniting prices to record highs were production woes and import issues at the border. Even during the Super Bowl in February, we pointed out Americans were paying some of the highest costs ever for the fruit.

    Now Mexican wholesale avocado prices have collapsed from $51 to $16, or a 70% drop, because of oversupplied conditions in US markets. 

    After border trade was resolved and shipments restarted earlier this year, Mexican farmers produced bumper crops.

    “It’s one of those odd situations where this extreme oversupply of avocados is only possible because of a perfect storm of Black Swan events. For consumers, avocados right now are the green lining to the storm clouds of food inflation,” Richard Kottmeyer, managing director of food, agriculture and beverage with FTI Consulting, told CNN. 

    Kottmeyer said, “much of the avocado oversupply has wound up in US.” And the glut in avocados has pushed down supermarket prices and should extend well into the middle of 2023. 

    Sliding fruit prices from Mexico have put a dent in Mission Produce’s fiscal fourth quarter with a loss of $42 million or 59 cents a share, on net revenue of $238 million, flat with a year ago. 

    Bank of America said the company that sources, produces, packs, and distributes fresh avocados to supermarkets, wholesale, and food service customers across the world had a challenging quarter because “market prices of Avocados dropped while cost inflation remained high.” 

    Mission Produce shares plunged as much as 15% to $12.40 a share — nearly the level at which the company went public in late 2021 — after earnings were released on Thursday. 

    BofA is optimistic about Mission Produce’s future for the next fiscal year: 

    Looking ahead to FY23, avocado supplies appear to be more abundant which should support volumes and restore some normalcy to the market place. This should support improvement in EBITDA. A longer term question in our view is the scope that AVO (and the market) can pass through the more structural non-fruit related cost inflation as contracts renew, we expect to see some progress in FY23.

    And the bank reiterates its Buy rating on the company with a $19 price target as fundamentals are forecasted to improve in the quarters ahead. 

    Demand for avocados is certainly not decreasing. There’s a supply wall that Americans will have to eat through — and we’re assuming cheap avocados will spur millennials back into the avocado and toast craze. 

    Looking ahead, we wonder if traders font-run Mission Produce shares ahead of the Super Bowl, which is the biggest consumption event for avocados. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 19:20

  • Global Energy Crisis Forces Japan To U-Turn On Its Nuclear Policy
    Global Energy Crisis Forces Japan To U-Turn On Its Nuclear Policy

    By Alex Kimani of OilPrice.com,

    Japan has announced a major U-turn in its energy policy after the Asian nation adopted a new policy promoting greater use of nuclear energy, effectively ending an 11-year prohibition and phase-out that was triggered by the Fukushima disaster. 

    Under the new policy, Japan will maximize the use of existing nuclear reactors by restarting as many as possible, prolong the operating life of old reactors beyond their 60-year limit and also develop next-generation reactors to replace them.

    The proposed legislation marks a complete reversal of the nuclear safety measures the country adopted after a powerful tsunami hit caused three of its six reactors to suffer meltdowns. Fearing a public backlash, the Japanese government has desisted from building new reactors or replacing aging ones.

    The situation could not be more different in Europe, a region facing one of the most severe energy crises. Ten months since Russia invaded Ukraine, European governments long opposed to nuclear power have shown little change in their attitudes, “We’re not talking about a nuclear renaissance, as such, but maybe more of a change of tide,” Nicolas Berghmans, an energy and climate expert at the France-based Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), told Al Jazeera.

    The same case applies to fracking. Proponents of fracking hold that Europe’s shale gas potential is needed now more than ever, though Germany, France, the Netherlands, Scotland and Bulgaria have all previously banned fracking, and show no signs of changing their minds any time soon. The UK is the only exception here: Britain’s former Prime Minister Liz Truss announced that the UK is lifting a 2019 moratorium on shale gas fracking as the country looks to ramp up domestic energy resources and help households and businesses struggling to pay soaring energy bills.

    The only ‘dirty fuel’ that has made a major comeback in Europe amid the energy crisis is coal.

    According to the Washington Post, coal mines and power plants that closed 10 years ago have begun to be repaired in Germany. In what industry observers have dubbed a “spring” for Germany’s coal-fired power plants, the country is expected to burn at least 100,000 tons of coal per month by winter. That’s a big U-turn considering that Germany’s goal had been to phase out all coal-generated electricity by 2038.

    Other European countries such as Austria, Poland, the Netherlands and Greece have also started restarting coal plants.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 18:55

  • Pelosi's Office Was Directly Involved In Failed Jan. 6 Security, Texts And Emails Reveal
    Pelosi’s Office Was Directly Involved In Failed Jan. 6 Security, Texts And Emails Reveal

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office was directly involved in the Capitol security plan – in which officials said they had been “denied again and again” when asking for resources  necessary to protect the building complex during the the Jan. 6, 2021 riot.

    Did Pelosi’s office set Capitol Police up to fail?

    According to a trove of text and email messages made public Wednesday by House Republicans, the Capitol was left vulnerable on Jan. 6 as a result of failures by Democratic leadership in the House as well as law enforcement officials in the Capitol Police, who let concerns over the “optics” of armed officers and National Guardsmen take precedent over an appropriate level of staffing given the obvious protests which were about to occur.

    The report, compiled by GOP Reps. Rodney Davis, Jim Banks, Troy Nehls, Jim Jordan and Kelly Armstrong, covers the results of months of investigation surrounding the events of Jan. 6, which the Democrat-led J6 Committee failed to conduct, Just the News reports.

    “Leadership and law enforcement failures within the U.S. Capitol left the complex vulnerable on January 6, 2021. The Democrat-led investigation in the House of Representatives, however, has disregarded those institutional failings that exposed the Capitol to violence that day,” concludes the GOP report, which also highlighted that Capitol Police began receiving specific warnings in December over potentially significant violence planned against the Capitol and lawmakers by angry protesters who planned to contest the certification of the 2020 election results.

    “Prior to that day, the U.S. Capitol Police (USCP) had obtained sufficient information from an array of channels to anticipate and prepare for the violence that occurred,” reads the report. “On January 6, 2021, criminal rioters assaulted police officers, broke into the U.S. Capitol, damaged property, and temporarily interfered with the certification of states’ presidential and vice presidential electors at the Joint Session of Congress—a typically pro forma event.”

    But its most explosive revelations involved text and email messages showing that two key staffers in Pelosi’s office attended regular meetings to discuss the security plan for Jan. 6 dating back to early December 2020 and that Pelosi’s top aide even edited some of the plans. Most of those discussions and meetings excluded Republican lawmakers in the House, the report noted.

    “Then-House Sergeant at Arms Paul Irving—who served on the Capitol Police Board by virtue of his position—succumbed to political pressures from the Office of Speaker Pelosi and House Democrat leadership leading up to January 6, 2021,” the report said. “He coordinated closely with the Speaker and her staff and left Republicans out of important discussions related to security.” -Just the News

    “Our report exposes the partisanship, incompetence and indifference that led to the disaster on January 6 and the leading role Speaker Pelosi and her office played in the security failure at the Capitol,” said Rep. Jim Banks. “Unlike  the sham January 6th Committee, House Republicans produced a useful report that will keep Capitol and USCP officers safe with no subpoena power and no budget.”

    Following the events of Jan. 6, Pelosi forced House Sergeant at Arms Irving to resign, after which a staffer in Irving’s old office sent a blistering email suggesting that Democratic leadership had thrown Irving and Capitol Police Chief Steve Sund under the bus to cover up their own failures to provide adequate security.

    “For the Speaker’s knee-jerk reaction to yesterday’s unprecedented event (and God knows how Congress lives for its knee-jerk reactions and to hell with future consequences . . . ). to immediately call for your resignation . . . after you have been denied again and again by Appropriations for proper security outfitting of the Capitol (and I WROTE several of those testimonies, dangit) . . . and to blame you personally because our department was doing the best they could with what they had and our comparatively small department size and limited officer resources . . . and because other agencies stepped in to assist just a fraction too late . . . again, for Congress to demand your resignation is spectacularly unjust, unfair, and unwarranted,” wrote the staffer.

    “This is not your fault. Or Sund’s fault. If anything, Appropriations should be hung out to dry.”

    Read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 18:28

  • Texas 2020 Election Audit Exposes "Very Serious Issues" In Harris County
    Texas 2020 Election Audit Exposes “Very Serious Issues” In Harris County

    Authored by Jana Pruet via The Epoch Times,

    Secretary of State John Scott’s office has released the final phase of its 2020 general election audit of Collin, Dallas, Harris, and Tarrant Counties.

    The audit released on Monday showed the most serious issues occurred in Harris County, followed by Dallas with two large problems, including “phantom voters.” Tarrant County administered a “quality, transparent election” with minor findings, and Collin County “proved to be the model of how to run elections in Texas.” (pdf)

    Overall, Texas voters can have a “very high level of confidence in the accuracy of the outcome of Texas elections” when state election code and local procedures are followed, according to a state election audit report.

    Scott ordered the full forensic audit last year amid concerns about voter fraud. To ensure the transparency of the assessment, the 359-page audit represents the two largest Democrat-controlled counties, Dallas and Harris, as well as the two largest Republican-controlled counties, Collin and Tarrant, according to the report.

    In Harris County, the problems were severe enough that the Secretary of State’s office notified the county of the audit’s preliminary findings ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, the report said.

    Last month, Chad Ennis, Director of the Forensic Audit Division (FAD), sent a letter to Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg requesting her assistance in reviewing allegations of criminal activity during the Nov. 8 election. (pdf)

    The allegations stem from interviews with election judges from 16 polling places found the county may have committed at least two Texas Election Code violations.

    ‘Widespread Problems’

    On Nov. 14, Gov. Gregg Abbott (R) also called for an investigation into the “widespread problems” that occurred during last month’s elections.

    Among the problems reported were missing keys, a shortage of paper ballots in Republican precincts, and staffing issues, according to a news release.

    “The allegations of election improprieties in our state’s largest county may result from anything ranging from malfeasance to blatant criminal conduct,” Abbott said.

    “Voters in Harris County deserve to know what happened. Integrity in the election process is essential. To achieve that standard, a thorough investigation is warranted.”

    Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks at a press conference in Houston, Texas, on Sept. 13, 2022. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

    Ogg, a Democrat, responded with a letter to the Texas Department of Public Safety requesting the Texas Rangers to assist her office in an investigation into “alleged irregularities with the latest Harris County election that potentially may include criminal conduct.”

    2020 Audit

    The Secretary of State’s 2020 audit included machines and software, security, voter registration, provisional voting, mail-in voting, chain of custody, records management, and more.

    In Harris County, the audit showed “very serious issues in the handling of electronic media.”

    At least 14 mobile ballot boxes could not provide a proper chain of custody records for 184,999 ballots. Chain of custody is a chronological documentation practice that records every aspect of cast vote records (CVR), ballots, and other election materials.

    “All links in the chain of custody must be documented so voters know who ‘handled their rights,’” the report explains.

    The county failed to provide documentation for the creation of 17 mobile ballot boxes accounting for 124,630 cast vote records.

    Tally audit logs for more than two dozen early polling places and eight election-day polling locations did not match the electronic records.

    A person prepares to cast their ballot at the Metropolitan-Multi Service Center in Houston, Texas, on Feb. 25, 2022, during early primary voting. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

    Another issue involved the storage of voting records. The audit counted 534 boxes warehoused but was unable to confirm whether or not this was all of the records.

    “Harris County did not have an inventory of their warehoused records for the 2020 General Election,” according to the report. “ … At times, FAD observed the label used on the outside of the boxes inaccurately described the contents.”

    ‘Phantom Voters’

    Dallas County’s two biggest issues involved multiple problems with their electronic poll books and losing experienced staff members.

    The county’s electronic equipment created at least 188 “phantom voters.”

    It misplaced 318 provisional votes that were discovered in February 2021. Another 21 mail-in ballots were credited to voters, but their sealed, unopened ballots were discovered during the audit.

    There was also a discrepancy of 1,156 ballots in the transfer of records.

    “The tabulation audit log reflects additional mail ballots which did not track back to those transferred by the [Early Voting Ballot Board],” the report reads.

    “Dallas County forms show 76,991 left the EVBB but 78,147 were recorded in the canvass.”

    Additionally, four data sources for mail ballot statistics were inconsistent, and none matched the canvass.

    Tarrant County had minimal issues.

    “Tarrant County administers a quality, transparent election,” the report said.

    The FAD found that mail ballot naming was inconsistent, which caused some difficulty in tracking ballots, but the “numbers were ultimately verified through other documentation.”

    The other issue involved election workers not consistently printing zero tapes before opening the polls.

    Collin County provided the most consistent records management, records quality, and its “procedures were unmatched.”

    It found one issue where 21 voters who were ineligible to vote by mail received mail-in ballots.

    The report also noted that all of the counties had internal inconsistencies, such as multiple sources providing the same data. In some cases, the numbers matched, but in many cases, they didn’t.

    Earlier this month, Scott announced his resignation at the end of the year to return to private law practice. Abbott appointed him to serve in October of last year.

    Abbott appointed Republican State Senator Jane Nelson, who is retiring from the Senate after 30 years in the Legislature, to replace Scott as Secretary of State.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 18:05

  • NY Times Goes Mega-Karen Over Formerly-Banned Twitter Discussion
    NY Times Goes Mega-Karen Over Formerly-Banned Twitter Discussion

    The New York Times‘ Stuart. A Thompson, who covers ‘misinformation and disinformation’ for the once-respected rag, has gone full ‘Karen’ over free speech on Twitter.

    Literally shaking… unable to even…

    So, what are people freely discussing on the platform?

    “Covid-19 misinformation and vaccine doubts“

    Karen please.

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    Stuart Thompson doesn’t like vaccine skeptics

    Other topics that Stuart and the Times feel should be verboten;

    “Election fraud”

    and…

    “QAnon”

    “On Twitter, reinstated users have returned to familiar themes in QAnon lore, raising questions about prominent Democrats and their association with Jeffrey Epstein, a former financier who was charged with child sex trafficking and is a central figure in QAnon conspiracies,” Thompson writes.

    Why shouldn’t people be able to talk about prominent Democrats who hung out with a giant convicted pedophile, Stuart?

    Nice ratio guys. Way to read the room.

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 17:40

  • Why The Next Decade Will Not Be Like The Previous 40 Years
    Why The Next Decade Will Not Be Like The Previous 40 Years

    Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

    The mainstream assumption is the status quo will continue on much as before. This isn’t just unlikely, it’s impossible if total energy produced and consumed declines.

    Correspondent C.A. submitted this insightful interview with economic strategist and historian Russell Napier: “We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale”.

    In Napier’s telling, the 40-year period from 1980 to 2020 was dominated by central banks (monetary policy) and markets (enterprises seeking to maximize profits).

    These forces fueled the rise of globalization (maximize profits by arbitraging lower labor and production costs overseas via offshoring production) and financialization (vastly expand debt and leverage but keep debt service low by steadily reducing interest rates).

    The second-order effect of the resulting hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization was hyper-dependency on geopolitical rivals and on monetary intervention and credit/asset bubbles to support consumption.

    Neither was sustainable. Near-total dependence on geopolitical rivals in service of private-sector profits created existential national security vulnerabilities which must now be addressed by reshoring / homeshoring / friendshoring critical production.

    The market, ruled solely by incentives to maximize profits by any means available, created this vulnerability. It is incapable of resolving it.

    I covered all these dynamics in depth in my book A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States which predated the Ukraine War by four months.

    Napier sees governments replacing central banks as the primary force in creating credit and guiding policies / incentives.

    He explains that governments don’t have to rely on central banks to create money or credit, or on issuing Treasury bonds that are purchased by investors. Governments are guaranteeing commercial bank loans issued by private-sector banks, in effect expanding credit without creating more government debt.

    These guarantees backstop commercial bank loans made in accordance with government directives and goals.

    If a borrower defaults, the government will cover the losses so the lender is made whole. It’s riskless lending for banks and keeps the expanding credit off the government balance sheet.

    Napier calls this “the politicization of credit.”

    Napier explains why inflation will be maintained in a range of 4% to 6% for years to come: inflation is the only way to reduce the debt burden which has reached $300 trillion globally, and about 250% of GDP of many nations. (This is the total of both government and private-sector debt.)

    Napier refers to this as “financial repression” because inflation that’s higher than bond yields robs savers and benefits debtors, whose earnings rise with inflation while their debt service remained fixed. (This assumes fixed-rate loans, of course.)

    This will also restore the purchasing power of younger workers as wages rise, at the expense of older (and wealthier) generations.

    The net result of governments taking control of investment and credit creation “will mean a huge homeshoring or friendshoring boom, capital investment on a massive scale into the reindustrialization of our own economies.”

    Governments will have to create enough credit to fund both this massive capital investment (known as CapEx, capital expenditures) and maintain consumption.

    Napier points to the 1946-1979 period as an example of governments guiding the economy more than central banks guiding the economy.

    All this makes excellent sense, but Napier overlooks three consequential dynamics:

    1. The energy cliff, as hydrocarbon production declines faster than new sources can be brought on line to replace them.

    2. The demographic cliff as workforces decline and the cohort of retirees to be supported balloons.

    3. The impossibility of funding massive new CapEx and infrastructure spending, supporting the ballooning cohort of retirees and consumer spending to keep the “waste is growth / Landfill Economy” humming while keeping inflation tamed to 5%.

    In other words, there will be tradeoffs. If you want moderate inflation (politically necessary, as high inflation loses elections) and massive increases in CapEx, consumer spending has to take a hit.

    Furthermore, inflation will be driven by two forces: scarcities of essentials like food and energy, which are basically the same thing in industrialized fertilizer-dependent agriculture, and the expansion of credit in excess of increases in productivity.

    If $1 invested in CapEx generates more value in terms of goods and services, that means productivity is increasing. If CapEx doesn’t generate more goods and services, productivity is stagnant.

    As I’ve explained, this is what happened in the 1970s: massive CapEx was invested in retooling the U.S. industrial base to reduce pollution and improve efficiency.

    The reduction in pollution greatly improved well-being but didn’t increase GDP or productivity. We only manage what we measure, and since we don’t measure well-being, the real gains of this CapEx were not even measured.

    Like well-being, we don’t measure National Security economically, so improvements in the security of our production of essentials will not even be recognized.

    The real gains of homeshoring won’t even be recognized or understood unless we throw out the current methodology of economic measurements and replace it with a modernized set of measurements that aren’t limited to production and consumption (i.e. “growth”.).

    As for energy, what most people miss is Jevon’s Paradox: adding sustainable energy (however you define that) doesn’t replace our consumption of hydrocarbons, it simply increases our total consumption of energy.

    Another factor most people miss is the scale of the hydrocarbon complex everyone is hoping to replace, and the timeline of that replacement.

    Despite decades of investment, alternative energy supplies only 5% or so of global energy. Those pounding the table for nuclear energy rarely mention the timeline for constructing enough plants at scale to make a difference: decades, not years.

    Since the cheap-to-get oil has been extracted, what’s left costs more. Yes, technology improves, but physics wins in the end; more energy must be expended to get the hard-to-get oil out of the ground.

    These realities dictate an Energy Cliff in which oil production declines faster than new sources can be brought online. And rather than consume more energy as new sources are brought online, we’ll consume less and it will cost more, for all the reasons I explained in my book.

    The demographic cliff is equally baked in. The workforce of the next decade can’t be expanded, it’s already here, along with the soaring cohort of retirees.

    If sacrifices must be made in consumption due to higher costs of essentials and the need for massive CapEx, the consumer economy will shrink.

    Since the system is optimized for expansion, that contraction will upend the entire global economy as it is currently configured.

    On top of these three factors, there’s the soaring healthcare costs generated by lifestyle diseases (diabesity, etc.), high levels of pollution in developing nations and the aging populace.

    Profiteering doesn’t generate health, and profiteering has been the name of the game so long few can imagine any other way of living.

    The mainstream assumption is the status quo will continue on much as before. This isn’t just unlikely, it’s impossible if total energy produced and consumed declines.

    As energy analyst Vaclav Smil put it: “I’m not an optimist or a pessimist. I’m a scientist.” Rather than waste time arguing about optimism and pessimism, let’s focus on physics, costs and timelines, i.e. realistic assessments, and on the trade-offs needed to reach our goal of a sustainable, open-to-all, fair economy.

    *  *  *

    This essay was first published as a weekly Musings Report sent exclusively to subscribers and patrons at the $5/month ($50/year) and higher level. Thank you, patrons and subscribers, for supporting my work and free website.

    My new book is now available at a 10% discount ($8.95 ebook, $18 print): Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.  Read the first chapter for free (PDF)

    Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 17:15

  • "I'm Truly Sorry For What I Did" – SBF's Girlfriend Confirms They Conspired To Steal From FTX Customers
    “I’m Truly Sorry For What I Did” – SBF’s Girlfriend Confirms They Conspired To Steal From FTX Customers

    Caroline Ellison, erstwhile girlfriend of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried and former CEO of Alameda Research, has spilled her guts in order to avoid a 110 year prison sentence.

    According to court documents released Friday, Ellison admits she and SBF signed off on “materially misleading financial statements” for Alameda lenders – knowing it was illegal.

    “I am truly sorry for what I did,” she said, according to the transcript of the hearing, adding “I knew that it was wrong.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Specifically, she told a judge earlier this week she and Bankman-Fried conspired to steal billions of dollars from FTX customers, as she appeared in federal court to plead guilty to seven criminal counts, according to a court transcript reported by Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg.

    “I understood that FTX executives had implemented special settings on Alameda’s FTX.com account that permitted Alameda to maintain negative balances in various fiat currencies and crypto currencies,” said Ellison.

    “In practical terms, this arrangement permitted Alameda access to an unlimited line of credit without being required to post collateral, without having to pay interest on negative balances and without being subject to margin calls or FTX.com’s liquidation protocols.

    She added:

    “If Alameda’s FTX accounts had significant negative balances in a particular currency, it meant that Alameda was borrowing funds that FTX’s customers had deposited onto the exchange.”

    Ellison’s statement included allegations that Bankman-Fried and other FTX executives had borrowed funds from Alameda, and used FTX funds to repay “loans worth several billion dollars.”

    Ellison’s plea deal, released on Dec. 21, largely spared the former Alameda CEO of many of the charges Bankman-Fried currently faces including wire fraud and securities fraud. She may still be prosecuted for criminal tax violations, but the agreement set bail at $250,000 on the condition she surrendered all travel documents.

    FTX’s co-founder and former CTO Gary Wang confirmed the existence of these privileges and that Alameda was an exclusive beneficiary of them.

    Of course, this crushes Bankman-Fried’s ‘Simple Jack’ defense…

    As Decrypt reports, the code’s existence, previously called a sort of bookkeeping “backdoor,” was first reported by Reuters, citing anonymous sources. Bankman-Fried said later that “that is definitely not true,” adding that he didn’t “know exactly what they’re [Reuters] referring to.” 

    It now appears that this code indeed existed and offered Alameda some serious benefits.

    …but even more notably, a judge agreed to a request by prosecutors to keep it secret that two of Bankman-Fried’s executive associates had turned against him so that the cryptocurrency entrepreneur would agree not to fight extradition from the Bahamas to the US, according to the transcripts.

    And now he’s on his way, via Business Class, to his mom-and-dad’s fancy Palo Alto pad…

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    …for some me-time.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 16:50

  • Tech Stocks Tumble Towards 2nd Worst December Ever; Bonds Worst Week Since April
    Tech Stocks Tumble Towards 2nd Worst December Ever; Bonds Worst Week Since April

    After three months of divergence, hard data started to lag this week, catching down to the more sentiment-driven ‘soft’ survey data, and dashing hopes of a soft landing happening in the US economy…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The market has shifted hawkishly this week, with expectations for the terminal Fed rate rising and expectations of subsequent rate-cuts falling (both back up near pre-CPI levels)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    And that reality check weighed on the equity market broadly with Nasdaq hammered hardest (Nasdaq down three weeks in a row). The Dow managed to make gains on the week (best week since Thanksgiving)…

    As they careen towards putting in the second worst December performance ever with Nasdaq -9% so far (Dow down 4.2%)…

    Energy stocks outperformed on the week while Tech and Consumer Discretionary lagged…

    Source: Bloomberg

    TSLA is down 6 straight days (and 9 of the last 10 days) and 10 of the last 14 weeks.

    Bonds (which closed early today) were also dumped this week, led by the long-end with the 10Y yield up 26bps – the biggest weekly yield surge since April…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The 10Y Yield is back up at one-month highs (erasing all the price gains since Powell’s dovish address in late November)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar slipped lower on the week, back to post-CPI lows…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos continued their low-vol range-bound trading with Bitcoin holding just below $17,000 for the week…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold ended the week unchanged (basically the 3rd week in a row where – despite intra-week volatility – the precious metal has ended flat around $1800)

    Source: Bloomberg

    Oil prices rallied for the 2nd straight week with WTI topping $80 on its best week since early October

    Finally, while December looks set to be the second worst month for stocks ever, The Dow is set for its best year since 1933 relative to the S&P 500…

    Source: Bloomberg

    As Bloomberg notes, The Dow’s reliance on blue-chip companies has made it a place of relative safety as rising interest rates pushed investors away from technology stocks. Some bears are betting the outperformance won’t last: short interest in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust is hovering at 3% of shares outstanding, the highest level since August 2020, IHS Markit data show.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 12/23/2022 – 16:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Dec 23

Today’s News 23rd December 2022

  • Visualizing Healthcare Spending & Life Expectancy, By Country
    Visualizing Healthcare Spending & Life Expectancy, By Country

    Over the last century, life expectancy at birth has more than doubled across the globe, largely thanks to innovations and discoveries in various medical fields around sanitation, vaccines, and preventative healthcare.

    Yet, while the average life expectancy for humans has increased significantly on a global scale, there’s still a noticeable gap in average life expectancies between different countries.

    What’s the explanation for this divide? According to World Bank data compiled by Truman Du, Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang suggests it may be partially related to the amount of money a country spends on its healthcare…

    More Spending Generally Means More Years

    The latest available data from the World Bank includes both the healthcare spending per capita of 178 different countries and their average life expectancy.

    Perhaps unsurprisingly, the analysis found that countries that spent more on healthcare tended to have higher average life expectancies up until reaching the 80-year mark.

    However, there were a few slight exceptions.

    For instance, while the United States has the largest spending of any country included in the dataset, its average life expectancy of 77 years is lower than many other countries that spend far less per capita.

    What’s going on in the United States? While there are several intermingling factors at play, some researchers believe a big contributor is the country’s higher infant mortality rate, along with its higher relative rate of violence among young adults.

    On the other end of the spectrum, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea have the highest life expectancies on the list despite their relatively low spending per capita.

    It’s worth mentioning that this wasn’t always the case—in the 1960s, Japan’s life expectancy was actually the lowest among the G7 countries, and South Korea’s was below 60 years, making it one of the top 30 countries by improved life expectancy:

    In fact, the last 60 years have seen many countries substantially increase their average life expectancies from the 30-40 year range to 70+ years. But as the header chart shows, there are still many countries lagging behind in Africa, Asia, and Oceania.

    How High Can Average Life Expectancy Go?

    Since people are living longer than they’ve ever lived before, how much higher will average life expectancies be in another 100 years?

    Recent research published in Nature Communications suggests that, under the right circumstances, human beings have the potential to live up to 150 years.

    Projections from the UN predict that growth will be divided, with developed countries seeing higher life expectancies than developing regions.

    However, as seen in the above chart from the World Economic Forum and using UN data, it’s likely the gap between developed and developing countries will narrow over time.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 23:20

  • Dozens Of CCP-Linked Experts, Celebrities, Officials Die During Recent COVID-19 Outbreak
    Dozens Of CCP-Linked Experts, Celebrities, Officials Die During Recent COVID-19 Outbreak

    Authored by Sophia Lam via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    China, its capital in particular, has been hit hard by the recent wave of COVID-19 that is sweeping the country.

    Hearses are seen waiting to enter a crematorium in Beijing, China, amid a mass wave of COVID-19 infections on Dec. 22, 2022. (STF/AFP via Getty Images)

    After dozens of professors and teachers from top Chinese universities passed away during the past 30 days, four more prominent Chinese figures have been reported to have died in the three days Sunday to Monday, respectively. They were aged from 39 to 89.

    According to Shanghai-based news portal The Paper, Tsinghua University professor Wu Guanying, China Film Art Research Center’s former Chinese Communist Party (CCP) secretary Chen Jingliang, former member of the editorial board of Xinhua News Agency Fang Xuehui, and celebrated Peking Opera performer Chu Lanlan all died within the three days.

    The Paper wrote that they died of illness after medical treatment failed to help them. The report didn’t specify which illness caused their deaths.

    Biographies of 4 Scholars and Celebrities

    Professor Wu Guanying, who died on Dec. 20 at the age of 67, was a professor of the Department of Information Art & Design at the Academy of Arts and Design of Tsinghua University. He was best known as one of the designers of the Beijing 2008 Summer Olympics mascots. He also participated in the design of many sets of stamps and gold and siver coins of the 12 Chinese zodiac animals, and was the designer of the New Year greeting series stamps.

    Chen Jingliang, born in April 1946, joined the CCP in 1979, according to The Paper. He started as a translator at China Film Group Corporation in 1970 and was the former CCP secretary of the China Film Art Research Center from 1994 to 2006 when Chen retired. He was a member of China’s Film Censorship Committee, which is overseen by China’s National Radio and Television Administration. Chen died on Dec. 19 at the age of 76.

    Fang Xuehui was born in December 1933 in Indonesia. He worked for the CCP’s mouthpiece Xinhua News Agency’s Jakarta regional office in the 1950s and settled down in China in 1966. He was an editor with Cankaoxiaoxi (“Reference News”), published by Xinhua News Agency, which translates and re-publishes articles by foreign news agencies. It was once only available to the CCP’s cadres and their families.

    Chu Lanlan was born in 1983 and passed away on Dec. 18 at the age of 39. She worked with the CCP’s military performing arts troupe to create Peking Opera singing and dancing pieces. She performed in various performances hosted by the CCP’s Central TV and Beijing TV.

    Over 30 Deaths Reported in One Month at 2 Top Chinese Universities

    From Nov. 10 to Dec. 10, a total of 19 retired professors and teachers of China’s prestigious Tsinghua University reportedly died amid the most recent wave of the pandemic outbreak, as reported by China’s news portal Sina.

    Workers in protective gear handle a coffin and coffin case at Dongjiao Funeral Parlor, reportedly designated to handle Covid fatalities, in Beijing, China, on Dec. 19, 2022. (Bloomberg)

    Huang Kezhi, a professor of Tsinghua University’s Department of Engineering Mechanics and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, died on Dec. 6 at the age of 95. Huang, a CCP member, was one of the founders of the Department of Engineering Mechanics, according to The Paper.

    Tsinghua University is home to some of the most prominent alumni, including the current CCP top leader Xi Jinping, his predecessor Hu Jintao, and former Chinese premier Zhu Rongji.

    On Dec. 11, an article titled “Taking the Protection of the Life and Health of Old Comrades as the Top Priority of the Current Epidemic Prevention and Control” was published on the official website of Tsinghua University, which says three working teams have been set up to guarantee the pandemic control and medical treatment of retired teachers and professors of the university. The article is reposted by Sina, a Chinese digital news portal.

    Netizens checked the obituaries published by Peking University from Nov. 6 to Dec. 5 and found that 15 scholars of the university passed away during the period. Among them, 89-year-old Yang Gen, CCP member and professor of the School of Archaeology and Museology at Peking University, died on Nov. 30.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 23:00

  • Putin To Sign Response To G7's Oil Price Cap Early Next Week, Touts "No Losses"
    Putin To Sign Response To G7’s Oil Price Cap Early Next Week, Touts “No Losses”

    President Putin indicated Thursday that Russia’s long-awaited response to the G7 oil price cap will come next Monday or Tuesday, in a defiant message asserting there will be no losses for Russia’s economy due to the cap.

    After long warning Europe its punitive anti-Moscow measures will backfire, he on Thursday repeated this theme that the price cap will trigger “a path toward destruction of global energy” – possibly sending prices to “sky-high” levels. “No individual damage for Russia, for the Russian economy, for the Russian fuel and energy sector is seen. We are selling approximately at prices set as the cap,” Putin said, according to a state media translation.

    Via AP

    “The goal of our geopolitical opponents, adversaries is clear – to limit revenues of the Russian budget,” Putin continued, before asserting: 

    “We nevertheless lose nothing from this ceiling; there are no losses for the Russian fuel and energy sector and the economy, the budget.”

    And he re-emphasized that there are “No losses because we are selling at these prices.”

    Interestingly a Foreign Policy op-ed published on the same day by chairman of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, Richard Morningstar, seems to agree and admits the following…

    “When Western leaders announced on Dec.2 that they had agreed on a $60 price cap on Russian oil exports they trumpeted it as a bold multinational achievement in energy diplomacy. But anyone who things this will be a significant hit to Russian oil revenues… is likely to be disappointed.”

    And more: “After all, Russian oil has sold at prices in the $60 range for much of the last sevral years. Moreover, since Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, global energy traders have already limited their offtake of Russian crude to some extent. When countires such as India and China snapped up the surplus, they negotiated steep discounts. But the discount for Urals crude, the main Russian benmark – nearly $40 per barrel compared with Brent oil in the early months of the war – has slowly dropped into the low $20 per barrel range, allowing Moscow to continue cashing in.”

    In contrast, Ukraine still has high hopes of a very different outcome, naturally…

    “We expect the collapse of profits from oil and gas exports to be at more than 50%, precisely because of the introduction of the EU embargo on oil and petroleum products and the introduction of price restrictions. Oil and gas account for 60% and 40% of federal budget revenues. We expect that Russia’s revenues will fall below the critical level of $40 billion per quarter,” Yuliya Svyrydenko, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy of Ukraine has said, echoing the whole impetus and rationale behind the cap as creating conditions that make it much more difficult for the Russian military machine to continue functioning.

    As for Putin, he the day prior also confidently said that his approach to the Ukraine special operation will remain one of “no limits” on spending. “The country and government is giving everything that the army asks for – everything. I trust that there will be an appropriate response and the results will be achieved,” Putin informed his top officials at the Defense Ministry’s annual meeting in Moscow.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 22:40

  • Mother Finds Herself Under Military Scrutiny For Objecting To Sexuality Poster At School
    Mother Finds Herself Under Military Scrutiny For Objecting To Sexuality Poster At School

    Authored by Alice Giordano via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A New Jersey mom continues to endure threats after a high-ranking military officer posted she was under investigation by security forces for objecting to student-made posters promoting terms like polysexual and pansexual at her local elementary school.

    Angela Reading is a former school teacher and, until her recent resignation, a member of the Northern Burlington County Regional School board of education.

    Reading told The Epoch Times that along with the U.S. Army officer’s social media posts warning she was under investigation for “causing safety concerns for many families,” North Hanover Township police chief Robert Duff contacted her and told her he had received emails from the military asking her to take her social media posts down about the sexuality posters.

    New Jersey mom Angela Reading said she was targeted by a high-ranking military officer for objecting to a kid-made sex education poster. (Courtesy of Angela Reading)

    Reading said Duff originally said he would release the emails to her, but then reneged, telling her the military told him he couldn’t because “they were classified.”

    Duff also refused to release them to The Epoch Times, saying he had no comment about the situation, and that “we should ask the military” about it.

    No one from the nearby McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst Joint Base, a large Air Force installation that hosts five wings—where Army officer Christopher Schilling is stationed—responded to inquiries by The Epoch Times.

    Schilling’s rank had initially been reported in national news as lieutenant, but The Epoch Times has been able to confirm he is a major assigned to the 78th Training Command as an operations officer.

    Schilling has also been reported by some national press as being a parent, but a school official—speaking on the condition of anonymity—said she wasn’t aware of him having any children in the school district.

    The Epoch Times has been unable to contact Schilling.

    Fears Over Community Safety

    The Army officer posted on Facebook that “the Joint Base leadership takes this situation very seriously and from the beginning have had the security forces working with multiple state and local law enforcement agencies to ensure the continued safety of the entire community.”

    Schilling also posted that one of Reading’s children was in the 2nd grade, commenting that the posters were hung in a school for 4th to 6th graders.

    “That literally gave me the chills,” Reading told The Epoch Times, “that he was posting about kids and seemed to have detailed knowledge of them.”

    Reading said she was so terrified that she immediately pulled her children out of school out of concern for their safety.

    Reading is the latest in a growing group of parents and other citizens across the United States who have become headline news after being accused of inciting violence for objecting to sexually explicit material in public schools.

    Nicole Solas, from Rhode Island, was pictured on a front page news story labeled “Domestic Terrorists” for her objection to explicit LGBT sex education—including one curriculum that likened sexual preference to choosing a type of pizza in a middle school assignment.

    Well-Organized Ambush

    Virginia mom Stacy Langton’s national notoriety began after she read from the book “Gender Queer,” which she found in school’s elementary school library, to the Fairfax County School Board.

    Langton’s microphone was shut off and she was reminded there were children in the audience.

    Kari MacRae, a Massachusetts grandmother, was fired from her teaching job in another town, was pressured to resign from the Hanover school board, and was the subject of what appeared to be a well-organized ambush during an impromptu public comment session, after she objected to LGBT and CRT curriculum in the schools.

    MacRae said she sympathizes with Reading.

    “She is trying to protect not just her own child, but all the children, because she sees how this is going to impact future generations and she the need to stand up and say enough is enough,” said MacRae. “There is a difference between inclusivity and indoctrination and that’s what they are trying to do here.”

    Like MacRae, Reading too said she was blindsided by a packed auditorium of people who appeared to come from out of town to protest against her.

    “The crazy thing is that all I basically said is that the poster was inappropriate,” said Reading.

    She also had only posted on a private Facebook group, made up mostly of conservative parents.

    “All I can think is there must be a mole on there,” she said.

    The message that Angela Reading posted in a private Facebook group, which is made up mostly of conservative parents. (Courtesy of Angela Reading)

    As for the poster in question, the collage, if still up it covers an entire wall at the Upper Elementary School (UES). It was hung just outside the entrance into the school’s auditorium, which is used by the entire district for events.

    The district was hosting a math night when Reading said her 7-year-old daughter, who is enrolled in a talented and gifted reading program, pointed out the poster and asked her what a “polysexual” was.

    After doing some inquiring the next day, Reading said she was told the poster was for an “Inclusion and Diversity” in-class project and that the kids came up with their own terms, not the school or teachers.

    Interestingly, as Schilling pointed out, the kids came up with “mostly sexual-themed posters” for the diversity project with little to no other subjects typically linked to the idea of diversity such as religion, ethnicity, body shape, and other visual characteristics.

    “This giant poster is riddled with rainbows and all the LGBT flags,” said Reading. “There’s a flag for polysexuals, a flag for pansexuals, bisexuals, asexuals, gender queer, nonbinary, transgender, androgynous, gender fluid, and it was 4th to 6th graders who came up with this all by themselves?”

    Facing Online Abuse

    In the middle of the sexual-orientation flags is written in big letters “LGBT.”

    Reading said she found the poster appalling because the terms, by their own definition, are about “sexual attraction”—not appropriate subject matters for 9 to 11-year-olds.

    It was only after she was told to “live with it” by school officials that she went online about the poster.

    Reading has been repeatedly called a bigot and a hater on a variety of social media platforms, and in published news stories, and is the subject of a new change.org petition that has labeled her an extremist.

    Schilling and Reading’s array of critics have largely accused her of putting children from military families who live on the joint base in danger and went so far as to accuse her of “inciting violence” with her objection to the posters.

    Superintendent Helen Payne, who released a statement about the case, did not respond to inquiries from The Epoch Times.

    In her statement, Payne wrote that the school has “been in continuous close contact with the North Hanover police” over the issue.

    “They are taking any risks very seriously, are aware of our concerns, and have been working on their end to provide any support we need.”

    Reading has, however, also won her share of support including from parents who have criticized Schilling for using his authority to threaten her.

    In one of his posts Schilling wrote, “Most younger kids would only focus on the pretty colored flags. The few that ask about the words can easily be explained as “those words describe other types of families and change the subject. Much worse is on billboards or flags flying in people’s yards …”

    Backing For a Concerned Mother

    In a statement to The Epoch Times, Gregory Quinlan, executive director of the Center For Garden State Families, took special aim at Duff for going along with the pressuring of Reading instead of protecting her and her First Amendment rights.

    “Police chief Robert Duff clearly forgot what it meant when he took the oath of office to protect the U.S. Constitution. His job is to defend the rights of Angela Reading, not take them away,” said Quinlan.

    He also said anyone can see that Reading said nothing “that incited violence.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 22:20

  • "Baltimore City Becomes Graveyard" Amid Dangerous Murder Wave
    “Baltimore City Becomes Graveyard” Amid Dangerous Murder Wave

    It has been two years since Baltimore welcomed Mayor Brandon Scott with an ambitious new crime-fighting plan. So far, progress has been horrible. 

    “I will reduce homicides by 15% each year of my term and get us below 300 homicides my first year,” vowed the new Mayor.

    As of Thursday, homicides in the Democrat-controlled city have hit 322, not too far from record highs after a murderous summer. 

    Baltimore City’s 2022 cumulative homicide trend is on par with the deadly years before Scott entered office. 

    The city had one of the deadliest summers in years. 

    With a population of around 600,000, the metro area is one of the most dangerous places in the country on a per capita basis. The murder rate stands at about 58.27 per 100,000.

    Mayor Scott’s plan to fix the city has been a nightmare with no real progress: 

    “Baltimore City done become a graveyard — memorials on every corner,” resident Karl McDonald, who joined a recent anti-violence march in the neighborhood, told AP News. 

    Baltimore City State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby’s policies of not prosecuting low-level crimes since 2020 have accelerated the city’s demise. 

    Meanwhile, Baltimore City Police Department is hemorrhaging officers as a shortage inhibits the ability to conduct meaningful patrols in high-crime areas — allowing gangs to completely control neighbors where black markets thrive and gunfire is rampant. 

    Violence in the city is so bad that a local chapter of the NAACP urged Gov. Larry Hogan to declare a “public emergency” and deploy the National Guard to prevent further collapse. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 22:00

  • As RSV Rages, States Intentionally Limit Hospital Beds
    As RSV Rages, States Intentionally Limit Hospital Beds

    Authored by Jaimie Cavanaugh & Daryl James via RealClear Wire,

    Doctors sounded the alarm after Thanksgiving: COVID, flu and RSV cases continue to climb, creating a triple threat pushing many hospitals to capacity. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention calls it a “perfect storm for a terrible holiday season.”

    One Boston hospital reports doctors caring for patients in the hallways of emergency departments. A mother in Silver Spring, Maryland, says her 6-year-old son had to wait a week for access to an intensive care unit after he was hospitalized with RSV. Similar stories have emerged in Michigan, New Jersey and elsewhere.

    What public officials rarely mention is that all of these states, and most others, intentionally limit hospital bed supply. Before health care providers can enter a market, add a wing to an existing facility or reallocate space, they must get a government permission slip called a “certificate of need” (CON). Overall, 38 states and Washington, D.C., impose some type of CON requirement.

    The approval process is cumbersome, often adding months and tens of thousands of dollars to urgent projects. Sometimes the government’s final answer is no, meaning private investors cannot spend their own money to expand medical services. Patients must settle for less.

    The regulations might make sense if they helped keep people safe, but CON mandates have no medical purpose. Different government groups already license doctors and nurses, approve drugs, test medical devices and set standards of care.

    CON boards focus instead on money. They consider how each proposed project might affect the bottom line of existing health care providers. Many states even allow incumbents to intervene on their own behalf, attacking the applications of potential direct competitors.

    If states took a similar approach in other industries, McDonald’s could stop mom-and-pop burger joints from opening nearby. The Home Depot could block small hardware stores. And LA Fitness could criminalize new gyms.

    The intent is to prevent health care overinvestment, supposedly to keep costs under control. But the reality is economic protectionism. Established providers gain access to an exclusive club closed to outsiders.

    Membership has its privileges. CON holders don’t have to worry about startup enterprises luring away customers with faster, cheaper or friendlier service. The government runs interference, blocking entrepreneurship and protecting the status quo.

    CON holders also can take their employees for granted. Limited supply means less mobility for doctors, nurses and other health care professionals, especially when states allow the enforcement of noncompete clauses on top of CON restrictions.

    Patients are the ultimate losers. Hospitals make the most money when they operate near capacity, but the business model leaves families vulnerable during major outbreaks.

    COVID already provided a wakeup call. California, Texas and 10 other states — covering 40% of the U.S. population — started the pandemic with an edge. They fully eliminated their CON laws years before the emergency, resulting in more hospital beds, surgery centers, dialysis clinics and hospices per capita than the national average at the end of 2019.

    Other states had to backtrack. “Conning the Competition,” a report from our public interest law firm, the Institute for Justice, finds that 24 states and Washington, D.C., quickly suspended their CON requirements when COVID infections began to spread, allowing health care providers to respond more quickly to the crisis.

    Rather than learn their lesson, most of these states returned to full CON enforcement by 2022 as if nothing happened. Now they are scrambling again.

    What they fail to grasp is that putting artificial limits on hospital beds is a dangerous game. Policymakers ignore decades of evidence when they cling to CON laws. Congress found the federal CON law to be a failure in 1987 and repealed it. The Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice looked at CON laws again in 2008 and found no public benefit. Multiple studies since then show CON costs exceed the benefits.

    Repealing CON laws would not end COVID, the flu or RSV. But it would end a rigged system that benefits big hospitals at the expense of entrepreneurs, health care professionals and patients — including the ones crowded out of emergency rooms and pediatric wards this holiday season.

    Jaimie Cavanaugh is the author of “Conning the Competition” and an attorney at the Institute for Justice in Minneapolis. Daryl James is an Institute for Justice writer.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 21:40

  • Boston Dynamics' Creepy Robo-Hounds Decorate A Christmas Tree
    Boston Dynamics’ Creepy Robo-Hounds Decorate A Christmas Tree

    Netflix’s post-apocalyptic drama “Black Mirror” featured a terrifying vision of robot dogs hunting humans. The quadruped robot resembles the actual real-life robot design by Boston Dynamics. 

    Over the years, videos published by Boston Dynamics’ remind us that robot dogs aren’t fantasy but reality. The US-based company’s “Spot,” a 70-pound robo-hound, is already out in the field. It has already been hailed by the New York Police Department as a high-tech crime-fighting sidekick and even used during field training exercises by the French military. 

    While Boston Dynamics can post all the cute and fun-loving videos of Spot, and even festive ones, like three robo-hounds decorating a Christmas tree, these machines are still creepy. 

    As previously noted, Boston Dynamics has pledged not to weaponize its robots and asked others in the industry to do the same. But China could care less and has equipped robo-hounds with machine guns.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 21:20

  • Omnibus Bill Has Extra Funds For DOJ To Pursue More Jan. 6 Lawsuits
    Omnibus Bill Has Extra Funds For DOJ To Pursue More Jan. 6 Lawsuits

    Authored by Madalina Vasiliu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The $1.7 trillion, 4,155-page omnibus government funding bill that passed the Senate this afternoon, contains funds for the Justice Department (DOJ) to pursue additional lawsuits related to the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol.

    The U.S. Capitol building in Washington on Nov. 22, 2022. (Lei Chen/The Epoch Times)

    The bill lists various funds, based on Jan. 6 events.

    It would give U.S. attorneys $2.63 billion—an increase of $212.2 million—”to further support prosecutions related to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and domestic terrorism cases,” according to the summary provided by the House Appropriations Committee.

    The bill also has $734.5 million for the U.S. Capitol Police, up $132 million over fiscal year 2022. That includes incentives for law enforcement personnel for overtime pay, officer retention, and recruiting. These benefits include tuition credits, wellness, and trauma counseling.

    It would cover security officers on contract for mission needs and First Responder Unit training, K-9 unit expansion, and Federal Law Enforcement Training Centers (FLETC) facility costs and training, including leadership development and life-cycle replacements for necessary security, safety, and communications equipment.

    The Capitol architect would receive $1.3 billion, a $541 million increase over the fiscal year 2022 budget.

    Additionally, the bill would include $11.33 billion for the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), “for efforts to investigate extremist violence and domestic terrorism.”

    The amount represents an increase of $569.6 million compared with the 2022 fiscal year. That would be $524 million above President Joe Biden’s budget request.

    “After a lot of hard work, Democrats will fulfill our promise to pass reforms to the Electoral Count Act into law,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on Dec. 20.

    “Two years after January 6, the attack on our Capitol remains an indelible stain on our democracy, and updating the Electoral Count Act is one of the ways we can prevent another January 6 in the future.”

    The omnibus bill includes the intention to make it tougher to reverse a certified presidential election as a direct reaction to the Jan. 6 events at the Capitol. It would raise the threshold for objecting to state electors from one House member and one senator to one-fifth of both chambers.

    On Dec. 19, nine members of the Jan. 6 committee agreed to bring criminal charges against former President Donald Trump related to that day’s events. A conviction on any of the charges would make it illegal for him to run for president again.

    The same committee referred four Republican legislators to the House Ethics Committee for defying subpoenas earlier this year.

    …

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 21:00

  • Canadian Government Tells Kids They'll Be On Santa's 'Naughty List' Without COVID Vaccine, Masks
    Canadian Government Tells Kids They’ll Be On Santa’s ‘Naughty List’ Without COVID Vaccine, Masks

    It’s the end of 2022 and the world is still witnessing new heights of Covid absurdity and fear-mongering authoritarianism coming from government figures.

    Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam has issued a new public health announcement for the Christmas holidays, which comes in the form of a 2-minute interview with “Mrs. Clause” from the “North Pole”. In it, children are warned that they could be on Santa’s “naughty list” if they don’t get the Covid-19 vaccine and mask up. Adults too are told that they won’t make the “nice list” if they don’t have their boosters.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Dr. Tam begins the video with the “good news” that the vast majority of Canadians have made the nice list this year after having been vaccinated. 

    And “Mrs. Claus” responds: “It just warms my heart to see everyone in Canada, especially kids, working so hard to keep the holidays safe…” The suggestion is that the minority of citizens who remain unvaccinated or without their boosters are “naughty”. 

    Mrs. Claus then informs the children that she and Santa are “both up do date with our vaccinations, including Covid boosters and flu shots.” This is the holiday image Canada wants to convey to impressionable young children – that coronavirus now threatens the mythical North Pole, apparently. 

    From there the Christmas message goes into the kind of guilt-tripping rhetoric we’ve all come to expect from the Canadian government, and its top health official who is the equivalent of Dr. Fauci. 

    “I always tell Santa to make a list and check it twice,” Mrs. Claus says, and goes through the “list” by telling children to “stay up to date on your vaccinations” as well as “wear a mask… and make sure it’s nice and snug.”

    Dr. Tam follows by telling families that if they gather for the holidays, “open a door, or a window” to let fresh air in.

    All of this might actually be a step up for Canada when compared to the first couple years of the pandemic, given that across major cities there were strict curfews severely hindering freedom of movement, and not even relatives could visit family members after dark on fear of being ticketed by police. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 20:40

  • Musk’s Neuralink Promising For Disabled, 'Ethical Concern' For Masses, Experts Say
    Musk’s Neuralink Promising For Disabled, ‘Ethical Concern’ For Masses, Experts Say

    Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Neuralink implant that aims to allow a person to control a computer with thoughts has good potential to achieve its initial goal of helping paralyzed people communicate. It may, at least to some extent, help restore vision for the blind. It may, to a significant degree, restore limb control for those with spine injuries, according to several neuroscientists.

    Illustration by The Epoch Times. (Aleksandra Sova/Shutterstock, Carina Johansen/NTB/AFP via Getty Images)

    But when it comes to Neuralink’s broader goals of letting healthy people interface with computers directly via the mind, the technical capability is achievable, but would lead to expansive ethical, safety, security, privacy, and even philosophical issues, experts told The Epoch Times.

    Neuralink—founded in 2016 by the world’s richest man, prolific entrepreneur Elon Musk—recently applied to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for human trials of its brain implants. The company staged a three-hour presentation of its progress, including demonstrations of a monkey controlling a computer with its mind, a robot that can handle some of the most delicate parts of the required brain implant insertion surgery, as well as a pig whose legs can be controlled remotely by a computer.

    The presentation also included a monkey with a brain implant that made it see flashes of light, a step toward the company’s proposition to restore vision for the blind.

    “The overarching goal of Neuralink is to create, ultimately, a whole brain interface. So a generalized input-output device that in the long term literally could interface with every aspect of your brain and in the short term can interface with any given section of your brain and solve a tremendous number of things that cause debilitating issues for people,” Musk said during the presentation.

    Elon Musk speaks at the 2020 Satellite Conference and Exhibition in Washington, D.C., on March 9, 2020. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

    The Neuralink technology “makes a lot of sense” for helping people with disabilities, said Nicho Hatsopoulos, a neurology professor at the University of Chicago and one of the pioneers of brain-computer interface development.

    “It is impressive, actually,” he said after seeing the Neuralink presentation.

    Mark Churchland, associate professor of neuroscience at Columbia University and an expert on brain signal decoding, commended Neuralink for bringing the brain-computer interface technology a long way from experiment to product.

    “They seem to have a solid wireless interface, which is not an easy thing to build. And going from needing racks of equipment and computers to needing an iPhone is impressive,” he said.

    “In terms of the actual experiments, it’s not doing anything that hasn’t been done before, but if you’re doing it better and more easily, that counts for a lot.”

    When it comes to the company’s plans to one day mass-produce the implants for use by anybody and everybody, both Hatsopoulos and Churchland were much more reserved.

    “We’re going to have to have some serious ethical conversations,” Hatsopoulos said, noting that “it’s one thing to help restore function in people who have a disability,” but “another thing to augment people.”

    “Augmentation is going to be a big ethical concern,” he said.

    Churchland was more blunt.

    “I think that is likely a really bad idea,” he said.

    Other experts raised concerns as well, ranging from philosophical questions over free will to security and privacy issues with regard to data collected from the brain as well as the potential to hack the implant.

    Level 1: Mind Mouse

    Neuralink’s initial goal is to enable physically incapacitated people to control a computer. At the current stage of development, the implant is roughly the size of a small stack of quarters. To install it, first, a piece of skin would be cut and peeled off the skull of the patient. Then, a small hole would be drilled in the skull. Next, a series of extremely thin, flexible wires would be connected to a thin needle one by one and stuck by a robotic machine inside the surface layer of the brain in the motor cortex area. The implant would be placed inside the hole in the skull, sealing it. The skin would be sewn over it and, as it heals, the implant would become invisible from the outside.

    The person would be asked to think, for instance, about moving their hand in a certain direction. Corresponding brain activity signals from the implant would be collected over a period of time, translated to computer data and commands via artificial intelligence and voila—the implant would then allow the person to control a computer with their mind.

    The Neuralink presentation proved the concept by showing a video of a monkey with the implant. The primate moved a mouse cursor to highlighted positions on a computer screen, getting bits of banana smoothie through a tube as a reward.

    Neuralink company logo on a phone and its website on a computer. (Shutterstock)

    The underlying technology is real and a similar experiment has been repeated many times by researchers using various methods, according to Shinsuke Shimojo, a professor of experimental psychology at the California Institute of Technology.

    In fact, a similar effect can be achieved even without sticking wires inside the brain as some brain activity can be detected on the surface of the head, he said, noting he’s currently working on one such technology.

    “It can be recordable reasonably well from the electrodes outside of the skull,” Shimojo said. “Those are done already and it’s going to be even better.”

    The more invasive path Neuralink has taken is more ambitious and more delicate.

    Regulatory authorities don’t allow invasive experimental techniques unless there’s an urgent medical need, Shimojo noted.

    “It’s not a science problem. It’s an ethical problem,” he said.

    Such experiments have so far been approved on a small scale for research purposes.

    In the early 2000s, implants developed by Cyberkinetics, a company co-founded by Hatsopoulos, were tested on several physically disabled patients. The project fizzled out because its investors lost interest, he said.

    The underlying software was acquired by a company called BrainGate in 2008 and clinical trials with small groups of patients have been ongoing at several research institutions, including one called BrainGate2 under the leadership of Leigh Hochberg, an engineering professor at Brown University.

    Science has only recently reached a point where multiple companies have decided to try to move it from research to a marketable product, Hochberg said.

    He’s currently helping several such companies, including Neuralink, which is now in talks with the FDA to run clinical trials that could lead to official approval of its implant as a form of treatment.

    “Clinical trials of this type would generally take a few years,” Hochberg said.

    Each new iteration of the implants would then require further trials, though he hopes software improvements of the system could be incorporated “with perhaps more speed.”

    The technology has been aided by advances in machine learning, which allows matching brain signal patterns with specific actions, such as moving a mouse cursor in a particular direction. Machine learning allows the correlation of brain patterns with physical outcomes without the need to understand the function of each specific neuron.

    “That’s the difference between the scientific approach and the engineering approach,” Shimojo commented.

    Scientists try to find out how things work, such as by exploring “how each neuron is wired” or “what’s the hierarchy of information processing in different parts of the brain,” he said. As a result, they try to drill down to causal relationships.

    Engineers, on the other hand, try to solve a problem. If an artificial intelligence finds a pattern that matches the desired result 95 percent of the time, that may be good enough, he noted.

    “I think right now, it’s moving, especially because of this deep learning progress, in that direction.”

    Level 2: Artificial Eye

    The next step for the Neuralink technology would be to restore sight, the presenters said. The same implant would be inserted at the back of the skull and connected to the visual cortex, the part of the brain responsible for processing images from the eyes. A video stream from a camera would then be encoded as neural signals and used to stimulate neurons responsible for image processing, thus rendering a picture.

    This seems to be possible in principle, but there may be difficulties in practice.

    “There are some constraints that can be removed eventually by just technical advance. And then there are some intrinsic limitations related to how the visual cortex itself is organized,” Shimojo said.

    Some neurons in the visual cortex indeed correspond to a location in the visual field. That means correct stimulation of one location in the brain produces a flash of light at a particular location in one’s vision and stimulation of another location produces a flash of light at a different place. Experiments of this kind have been done in apes and Neuralink demonstrated one.

    But “so far, the resolution is very, very low—ridiculously low,” Shimojo said.

    The flashes of light such stimulation produces can only be positioned on a grid of perhaps 12 by 12 pixels, he said.

    The picture quality can be improved by stimulating more neurons, i.e. inserting more electrodes into the brain. The Neuralink implant currently uses over 1,000 electrodes with a promise of 16,000 electrodes on the same chip. For the visual aid, the presentation proposed two implants with 16,000 electrodes each. If each electrode could be used to stimulate multiple “pixels,” perhaps a picture quality on par with a 1980s computer can be achieved.

    But even if the number of electrodes is further boosted in the future, the resulting image quality would still be limited, according to Shimojo.

    The problem is that if one creates a topographic map of the visual field, assigning each neuron to its position in the field, the result is nowhere precise enough to make up a clear image.

    “The topographic map is kind of crude and diffuse. It’s not pinpoint,” he said.

    People see with clarity thanks to complex, multi-layer image processing by the brain where the signal can travel back and forth between the layers and where neurons help adjacent neurons with the tasks.

    It’s not clear how the implant could achieve a comparable result, according to Shimojo.

    “It’s not easily solved by the technical side,” he said.

    Musk went as far as to suggest vision can be restored for people who are congenitally blind because even such people possess a visual cortex.

    “Even if they’ve never seen before, we’re confident that they could see,” he said.

    Hatsopoulos wasn’t so convinced.

    “I’m not clear that that’s possible,” he said.

    The issue is that the visual cortex “develops over the first several years of life” and the visual input from the eyes “helps organize how the visual cortex will function,” Hatsopoulos explained.

    Around the age of two, the brain loses the initial ability to develop so rapidly.

    That early development is “crucial,” he said, giving the example of children born with cataracts. The condition can be remedied by surgically replacing eye lenses, but it needs to be done early on. If the operation is performed too late, the patient won’t be able to see, even though all the physical parts are present and functioning.

    “Everything is perfectly fine, but the person will not understand the visual input coming in,” Hatsopoulos said.

    Level 3: Stretching the Limbs

    The Neuralink presentation outlined how the implants could restore limb control for people paralyzed after spine injuries. Aside from the implant in the motor cortex, another several implants would be inserted into the spine. Signals from the brain would then be recorded and sent to the spinal implants, bridging the part where the spinal cord is severed or damaged.

    In principle, this is fully achievable, according to the experts.

    “In fact, we’re doing that right now,” Hatsopoulos said. His university is working with a different implant technology that allows a patient to control a mechanical arm via the mind.

    One challenge is to record from many neurons at the same time “to give you the rich kind of movement that you would want to get” in order to produce “movement that’s somewhat normal,” he said.

    Reading from maybe a thousand neurons should suffice to restore “functional movement,” such as allowing a person to feed or dress themselves, Hatsopoulos said.

    “Maybe not as quickly as they would if they had an intact system, but they can do it,” he said.

    Based on its technical specifications, the Neuralink implant should enable a wide range of movement. Its presentation included a video of a pig with brain and spinal implants that bent its leg and stretched its thighs in response to commands sent to the implants.

    Facilitating complex movement, such as playing a piano, would probably require thousands of electrodes, Hatsopoulos said, noting “we’re taking baby steps right now.”

    Another challenge is fine-tuning the stimulation so it targets muscle threads that don’t tire quickly.

    “You’ve got to do more than just activate muscles,” Churchland said.

    “You’ve got to activate them in a relatively natural way to avoid fatigue. And that’s definitely doable, but it’s certainly not trivial.”

    It’s helpful in this endeavor that patients usually actively cooperate to make the solution work. Even though the number of electrodes may create a bottleneck, with effort, patients could rewire their brains to take maximum advantage of the interface.

    “With practice, they can get better at it,” Hatsopoulos said.

    The ability to move, however, is not enough. To truly restore function to a limb requires fixing the sense of touch too.

    That means recording sensory impulses from the limb and sending them to another implant in the brain’s sensory cortex.

    In principle, that has already been done as well. Stimulating some brain cells, for example, can create an impression that one is touching something, Hatsopoulos said, referring to experiments done at his university. The issue, again, is reading from and stimulating enough neurons to create a sufficiently robust touch experience.

    The technology still has a long way to go in this regard, Hochberg acknowledged.

    “It’s early, but exciting days,” he said.

    For truly natural movement, however, one would need to go further yet.

    A healthy person not only senses limb movement from what he touches externally, but also gets a sense of movement and limb position from inside the body.

    The phenomenon is called proprioception. Scientists know that certain brain areas receive those kinds of sensory inputs, but it’s not quite known how it works.

    “That’s the next frontier in this field,” Hatsopoulos said. “No one has cracked that yet.”

    Level 4: Cyborgs

    Musk envisions Neuralink going far beyond helping the disabled. He portrayed it more as a natural next step from a smartphone or smartwatch. Just like “replacing a piece of skull with a smartwatch for lack of a better analogy,” as he put it.

    “I could have a Neuralink device implanted right now and you wouldn’t even know. I mean, hypothetically, I may be one of these demos. In fact, one of these demos I will,” he said to laughs and cheers from the audience.

    He argued that “we are all already cyborgs in a way that your phone and your computer are extensions of yourself.”

    “I’m sure you found if you leave your phone behind you end up tapping your pockets and it’s like having missing limb syndrome,” he said.

    Neuralink for healthy people, however, may be far in the future, if it ever comes.

    “The FDA is not going to approve this for use in healthy individuals. At least in this version of the implant,” Hatsopoulos said, noting that “you would have to show an incredible level of safety.”

    Shimojo expressed a similar sentiment.

    “If the safety is proven, then there’s a possibility, in the long, long future, that maybe intact, healthy people have electrodes inside of the brain. But I don’t think that’s going to happen soon,” he said.

    The technology would likely have to get to a point of giving disabled people greater capabilities than healthy people have.

    Musk believes the implant would indeed bestow superior capabilities.

    “We’re confident that someone who has basically no other interface to the outside world would be able to control their phone better than someone who has working hands,” he said.

    But even if the implant is technically safe in the sense that it wouldn’t accidentally harm the user and even if it eventually passes regulatory muster, the technology faces other problems that may prove intractable.

    Data Security

    The Neuralink implant currently communicates with a computer using Bluetooth. That can be hacked by a number of easily available tools, according to Gary Miliefsky, a cybersecurity expert, head of Cyber Defense Media Group, and a founding member of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

    “If you’re in the proximity of the person you will probably be able to steal some data. So that’s not secure,” he said.

    As a first step, the communication between the implant and a computer would need to be encrypted, but that would drain the battery and processing power on the implant.

    Even then, “people will find ways to hack” the implants, Miliefsky said.

    There are already devices that can “unwind” SSL and TLS encryption protocols commonly used to secure emails, he said. And new technologies can go even further.

    “Quantum computing can probably break today’s encryption pretty easily,” he said.

    There’s “quantum-proof” encryption on the horizon, but the processing power it requires is far beyond anything a small implant could handle now or even in the upcoming decades, he estimated.

    “Nothing is bulletproof. Nothing is foolproof. When they tell you it’s unhackable, it’s usually hacked in five minutes, whatever it is,” he said.

    Even if the implant-computer communication is somehow secured, the brain activity data could still be exfiltrated from the computer, such as by infecting the computer with malware.

    “Seventy percent of new malware gets past all the virus scanners,” Miliefsky noted.

    And even if the data is somehow secured on the computer, it would still need to be accessed by technicians servicing the implant.

    Anybody with insider access to the Neuralink system would immediately become a prime target for every intelligence agency and every malicious actor in the world, Miliefsky acknowledged.

    “They’ll be unsuspecting victims. Absolutely,” he said.

    And that doesn’t even include the issue of covert operatives of all sorts lining up for jobs at Neuralink.

    “Insider threat defense is a big issue,” Miliefsky said.

    Yet another area of concern is that, once the data exists, there’s a chance the government could use the legal process to force Neuralink to preserve the data and share it for purposes of criminal investigations, counterintelligence, national security, and intelligence collection.

    Brain Hack

    The implications of a hacked implant appear difficult to fully grasp.

    People seem to be willing to accept some level of privacy intrusion. Smartphones, for example, can easily be used to listen in on a person and track one’s movement.

    “We’re walking around with spyware every day,” Miliefsky said.

    A brain implant, however, can produce personal data on another level of intimacy.

    From the motor cortex, an implant could record a wide range of body movements, according to Hochberg.

    “It continues to, I think, both amaze and pleasantly surprise a lot of people in the field just how rich the information is that can be extracted from small areas of the motor cortex,” he said.

    From the visual cortex, everything a person sees could theoretically be recorded, albeit likely in low resolution.

    Moreover, the implant would be under the skin, meaning it can’t be removed by the user and it can’t be turned off as it needs to maintain the capability of being turned on and off remotely.

    Worse yet, the implant can send signals into the brain too. Issuing commands to the motor cortex could make one move involuntarily.

    Theoretically, it’s possible to make a remote-controlled human, Hatsopoulos confirmed.

    Sending visual signals could make one see things that aren’t there, distract a person, or perhaps obstruct vision with flashes of light, the Neuralink experiments indicate.

    Churchland, however, dismissed such concerns as too far removed from the technology’s current reality.

    “It’s not physically impossible, but it’s extremely improbable,” he said.

    “Concerns about external manipulation, I think, are fanciful for the foreseeable future.”

    Level 5: Far From ‘The Matrix’

    Musk expects to go even further. As the electrode insertion technology improves, the implant will be able to reach deep areas of the brain as well, according to the presentation.

    Those parts of the brain are responsible for thought activity such as memory processing, emotion, motivation, and abstract thinking.

    Yet the know-how for decoding signals from these parts of the brain is so far limited, according to Shimojo.

    Machine learning can recognize patterns with a high degree of probability, but some level of ambiguity may be “intrinsic,” he said.

    “The brain is complicated and one neuron is not participating in one task. The same neuron can be participating in different networks for entirely different purposes. It’s really highly context-dependent and environment-dependent.”

    Whether it’s possible to fully decode such thought processes remains an open question.

    “Even among neuroscientists, there are different opinions,” he said, noting that such difficulties may need “some clever creativity to deal with.”

    “So is this eventually overcome? It may be, but it’s very long-run. It’s not as easy as those demonstrations may indicate.”

    Hypothetically, the ability to truly read and write in deeper areas of the brain would raise profound ethical and philosophical questions.

    Accessing memory processing centers, for example, would open another floodgate of privacy and security issues, according to Miliefsky, from password theft to national, corporate, and personal secret exfiltration.

    “There is not a single computer on the internet that I would say is safe and secure from a loss of privacy or having enough security that you could say, ‘Jimmy, who’s got the implant, all of his private thoughts are still secure.’ And it’s not going to happen,” he said.

    Furthermore, linking brain parts responsible for decision-making with an AI would put in question the integrity of free will, Shimojo argued.

    “If you and AI together make a decision about an action, is that your free will or is it hybrid free will?” he asked.

    “Is it ok for people? Is it ok for society? What‘s going to happen to elections, for instance?”

    As Musk explained during multiple talks, interfacing with an AI is actually the primary goal of why he pursued the implant technology to begin with.

    His original motivation for starting Neuralink, he said, was to address the rapid development of artificial intelligence.

    During the presentation and in previous talks, he opined that as AI develops, it’s likely to far surpass human intelligence. At that point, even if it turns out to be benevolent, it may treat humans as a lower life form.

    “We’ll be like the house cat,” he said at the Recode’s Code Conference in 2016.

    The solution would be to prevent AI power from getting centralized in a few hands, he argued.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 20:20

  • North Korea Is Supplying Russia's Wagner Mercenaries: White House
    North Korea Is Supplying Russia’s Wagner Mercenaries: White House

    After months of issuing vague allegations that North Korea is supplying Russian forces with tens of thousands of artillery shells, which both sides have denied, the Biden administration on Thursday is finally out with something specific, saying that Pyongyang has delivered arms to Wagner group.

    Wagner is the notorious private military contractor whose founder is said to be close to Vladimir Putin, and dubbed in Western reports as “Putin’s chef”. Western media has long accused Wagner operatives of committing war crimes in Ukraine, and before that on deployments in Syria.

    “Wagner is searching around the world for arms suppliers to support its military operations in Ukraine,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said in a Thursday press briefing. “We can confirm that North Korea has completed an initial arms delivery to Wagner, which paid for that equipment,” he added.

    AFP via Getty Images: PMC Wagner Center, associated with the founder of the Wagner private military group (PMC) Yevgeny Prigozhin, in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

    Kirby described the private Russian contractor as competing for power among official Kremlin ministries, acting as a “rival” also to the established defense ministry. A number of reports lately have suggested that Wagner mercenaries have operated with impunity and separate rules of engagement in Ukraine over the last ten months.

    “Wagner is emerging as a rival power center to the Russian military and other Russian ministries,” Kirby explained, also stating that Wagner is spending over $100 million each month for Ukraine operations.

    While European Parliament weeks ago formally slapped a ‘terror’ label on Wagner, the US is still said to be mulling the action, also vowing to ratchet sanctions on the Putin-connected firm. 

    More broadly, the White House has so far resisted calls from more hawkish corners of Congress to label Russia a state sponsor of terror, and is now said to be considering calling Russia an “aggressor state” – however, there’s no precedent for this term and it appears entirely made up by the administration in order to appease critics.

    As CNN describes, “An aggressor state designation, unlike the label state sponsor of terrorism, is not an official State Department category that would trigger specific US sanctions, and critics say it would be easier for the president to rescind that designation than the state sponsor of terrorism one.”

    It remains unclear at this point the precise type of weapons alleged to have been supplied to Wagner Group by the North Koreans. The broader Russian military is reportedly running low on artillery, which has been expended in the eastern and southern front lines at a rapid rate. In an official statement Pyongyang later in the evening denied the allegation. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 20:00

  • 2022 Was Bitcoin's Year Of Differentiation
    2022 Was Bitcoin’s Year Of Differentiation

    Authored by Mickey Koss via Bitcoin Magazine,

    2022 was marked by high-profile financial sovereignty issues and crypto implosions. The case for Bitcoin has never been more clear…

    2022 started with a bang, especially in Canada. Whether or not you agree with the premise behind the Canadian Trucker Protest, I think most can agree that freedom of speech is a keystone right in modern Western Democracies.

    But when the Canadian government began to crack down on protestors by freezing bank accounts, people turned to Bitcoin to help them survive. Organizations like GoFundMe not only blocked the protestors from receiving the money that had been raised, but they even attempted to pass the money along to causes that they aligned with. After some uproar, GoFundMe ended up refunding the money, but the message was clear: comply.

    However, Bitcoin allowed truckers to skirt these restrictions.

    Source

    Above is a snippet from an article from the Motley Fool, written in March 2022. Though I don’t agree with its conclusion or reasoning, the fact that traditional outlets were asking questions like that was a massive signal that perhaps the normies are starting to catch on.

    More recently, the Iranian government announced that it would be freezing the bank accounts of women who refuse to wear hijabs, traditional Muslim head covering, in public. This came after the threat of imprisonments and executions in order to quell ongoing protests for the freedom of expression there. As of December 8, 2022, one protester had already been executed by hanging by the Iranian government.

    The fact is, nobody is going to save you. Ethereum insists on being the new decentralized money of the internet, and yet, the protocol is enforcing Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) sanctions on its base layer. It’s becoming pretty clear that Bitcoin is perhaps the only easily-transportable freedom money left. I think this distinction became all the more clear as 2022 continued.

    THE ALTCOIN BONANZA GOES DOWN IN FLAMES

    “The same technology that allows for peer-to-peer money has allowed for peer-to-peer scams.”

    –Lyn Alden, “Swan Signal” episode 92

    From Celsius, to Three Arrows Capital, Luna, FTX, BlockFi, Voyager, and even Gemini, companies that deal in altcoins all felt pain in one form or another — Leverage, rehypothecation, algorithmic Ponzi schemes and the like. It seems to be that the biggest use case for crypto is making a quick buck at the expense of others, while rug pulling normies as your exit liquidity. It’s like the 1990s tech boom all over again.

    One of the most interesting parts of this whole debacle were the accusations of a lack of bitcoin held at FTX after its balance sheet was revealed in bankruptcy filings. Whether or not the accusations are true, the fact that it’s a legitimate question is illuminating. It appears to have sparked a fire. I think, slowly but surely, people are starting to see the difference and realize that Bitcoin and crypto really aren’t the same things after all.

    THE TURNING POINT OF 2023

    Bitcoin has differentiated itself not only from the traditional banking system in a meaningful way, but from crypto as well.

    The FTX debacle has highlighted the necessity for self custody: that your coins may not actually exist and the only way to find out if they’re real is to take custody. Bitcoin is now leaving exchanges in droves.

    Rocky Wold on LinkedIn, accessed December 2022

    Could this be a turning point for Bitcoin? Could people be waking up to the importance of self custody en masse? Only time will tell. I am optimistic that this trend will continue, taking the power from centralized exchanges and their ability to enforce censorship on behalf of hostile regimes. As far as I’m concerned, the more bitcoin in self custody, the better.

    If you’re still hesitant to take self custody I recommend watching some BTC Sessions demonstrations. It’s really not that difficult and the peace of mind is priceless. I nearly lost everything earlier this year when Celsius blew up. Don’t be like me. Stop procrastinating and take possession of your bitcoin today. Only then will you truly understand why and how it’s different.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 19:40

  • Alan Dershowitz: Jan. 6 Panel’s Criminal Referral Of Trump 'Clearly Unconstitutional'
    Alan Dershowitz: Jan. 6 Panel’s Criminal Referral Of Trump ‘Clearly Unconstitutional’

    Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The House Jan. 6 committee’s referral of former President Donald J. Trump to the Justice Department for prosecution violates the U.S. Constitution, according to Harvard Law Professor Emeritus Alan Dershowitz.

    Members of the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6 Attack on the U.S. Capitol hold its last public meeting in the Canon House Office Building on Capitol Hill on Dec. 19, 2022 in Washington. (Jim Lo Scalzo-Pool/Getty Images)

    The committee, comprised of seven Democrats and two Republicans, voted unanimously to refer Trump for four criminal charges during its last hearing on Dec. 19, including one charge that would prevent him from ever holding office again.

    “In my view, it’s clearly unconstitutional,” Dershowitz told Just the News on Monday. “Article One limits the power of Congress through legislative actions. This is not a legislative action, naming a specific individual and referring them to the Justice Department. It’s not legislative and it tramples on the authority of the executive branch.”

    The charges the committee recommended included insurrection, obstruction of an official proceeding, making a false statement to the federal government, and conspiracy to defraud the federal government.

    Under U.S. law, “whoever incites, sets on foot, assists, or engages in any rebellion or insurrection against the authority of the United States or the laws thereof, or gives aid or comfort thereto, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.”

    As of yet, no one has been charged with insurrection in relation to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach, though some defendants have been convicted of or are facing seditious conspiracy charges.

    According to Dershowitz, the 14th Amendment does allow for Congress to act against an individual if that person was engaged in an insurrection or rebellion like the Civil War, but the committee did not act under that provision.

    Adding that it was his belief that the Justice Department would likely accept and then ignore the referrals, the lawyer noted: “Remember, they now have a special counsel. They have the ability to investigate. They have a much higher standard of prosecution than Congress does. So, they will politely ignore what Congress has said.”

    Alan Dershowitz speaks at The Epoch Times’ Defending the Constitution event in New York City, on July 19, 2021. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

    Trump Responds

    Following Monday’s hearing, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), a member of the Jan. 6 committee, explained the panel’s reasoning in making the referrals.

    “Our criminal referrals were based on the gravity of the offense, the centrality of the actors, and the evidence we had available to us. There were undoubtedly other people involved, but we were stymied by virtue of a lot of people refusing to come and testify, refusing to give us the information they had, or taking the Fifth Amendment. So, we chose to advance the names of people where we felt certain that there was abundant evidence that they had participated in crimes.”

    Trump, however, dismissed the charges in the criminal referral as “fake” and an attempt to keep him from running for president again in 2024.

    “The people understand that the Democratic Bureau of Investigation, the DBI, are out to keep me from running for president because they know I’ll win and that this whole business of prosecuting me is just like impeachment was—a partisan attempt to sideline me and the Republican Party,” he said in a statement shared via Truth Social.

    Trump also contended that the committee’s move would make him stronger, stating: “These folks don’t get it that when they come after me, people who love freedom rally around me. It strengthens me. What doesn’t kill me makes me stronger. Americans know that I pushed for 20,000 troops to prevent violence on Jan 6, and that I went on television and told everyone to go home.”

    In his speech at The Ellipse on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump encouraged his supporters to “fight like hell”—a remark that the Jan. 6 select committee has often cited as evidence that he intended to incite violence at the Capitol.

    However, in a less-publicized statement from the speech, the former president also stressed that his desire was for the crowd to “peacefully and patriotically make [their] voices heard.”

    Further, after the situation at the Capitol had deteriorated to the point of violence, Trump released a recorded statement urging the protestors to “go home, and go home in peace.”

    “I know your pain; I know your hurt,” the then-president said. “We had an election that was stolen from us. … But you have to go home now. We have to have peace. We have to have law and order. We have to respect our great people in law and order.”

    Legislators Weigh In

    As news of the committee’s referrals spread on Capitol Hill, lawmakers shared their perspectives on the matter, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

    “The entire nation knows who is responsible for that day. Beyond that, I don’t have any immediate observations,” the Republican senator said in a statement, according to The Hill.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 19:00

  • McDonald's Unveils Automated Restaurant In Texas With No Human Contact
    McDonald’s Unveils Automated Restaurant In Texas With No Human Contact

    Soaring labor costs and inflation have accelerated McDonald’s push into automation. The fast-food chain unveiled its first concept restaurant earlier this month in Forth Worth, Texas, without human interaction.

    The company wrote in a press release, “There’s never been a McDonald’s restaurant quite like this before.”

    It features automated ordering kiosks — there are no cashiers — even automated machines dispense orders to customers, either through the drive-thru or inside. The one thing McDonald’s didn’t automate was the kitchen. 

    Food blogger “foodiemunster” posted a video of the new concept restaurant. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Fast-food chains have been testing robots for years. Inflation is compressing margins for restaurants, forcing them to consider automation to save on labor costs. 

    The cost of robotics has decreased over the years, allowing companies to make broader investments in the space. 

    The search for cost savings will be in the form of automating low-wage/low-skilled labor, something we’ve warned for years that would eventually displace millions of workers this decade. 

    Chipotle, Wing Zone, White Castle, and Jack in the Box are other restaurant chains investing in robotics. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 18:40

  • Why Are So Many Men Leaving The Workforce?
    Why Are So Many Men Leaving The Workforce?

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    Last week, CNN featured a story called “Men are dropping out of the workforce. Here’s why” The article went on to tell us virtually nothing at all about why so many men are leaving the workforce. Although as many as seven million men have stayed out of the workforce for varying reasons, the CNN piece was really about how more women are joining the workforce, and how wonderful it is that more women are working in “male dominated” fields. The fact that more women are joining the workforce, however, tells us nothing about why men are leaving. Indeed, the CNN piece offered only one reason to answer why men are leaving the workforce: they’re becoming stay-at-home dads.

    That category, however, is fairly small and numbers only in the hundreds of thousands. That leaves us wondering why millions of men have left the workforce for reasons other than raising children. If we look deeper into the available information on the question, the reality appears to be a lot less rosy than CNN’s suggested reason of “their wives are so doggone successful, these men decided to stay home and raise the kids.” 

    Source: Census Bureau, Table SHP-1: Parents and Children in Stay-at-Home Parent Family Groups.

    Instead, the reasons driving the lion’s share of missing men to leave the workforce appear to be illness, drug addiction, a perceived lack of well-paying jobs, government welfare, and the decline of marriage. None of these are reasons to celebrate, and few of these reasons lend themselves to any quick fixes through changes in law or policy. 

    At Least Six Million Missing Men 

    As I noted earlier this month, there are at least six million men of “prime age” (age 25-54) who are out of the workforce for various reasons. Historically, this number has been getting larger at a rate faster than growth of total men in that age group. That is, fewer than 3 percent of prime-age men were “not in the workforce” in the late 1970s, but 5.6 percent of men in this group were out of the labor force in 2022. That translates into approximately 7.1 million men according to the Census Bureau’s count of men “not in labor force.” 

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    We could contrast this with the proportion of women who are not in the labor force. Fewer prime-age women today are out of the labor force than was the case in the late 1970s. Women tend to remain out of the labor force in much larger numbers of men, so we find that in 2022, the total number of women out of the labor force is approximately 15 million. That number is smaller than what was common in the late 1970’s, however. As more women have joined the labor force over the past 40 years, more men have left. 

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    Again, it is important to emphasize we are talking about prime age men here, and we’re excluding older and younger populations in which retirement and schooling remove large numbers of workers from the workforce.

    Even including only prime age men, however, Alan B. Kreuger notes that the workforce trend in the US is headed downward faster than other wealthy countries:

    Although the labor force participation rate of prime age men has trended down in the United States and other economically advanced countries for many decades, by international standards the labor force participation rate of prime age men in the United States is notably low.

    Why Men Leave the Labor Force

    Determining reasons for leaving the labor force is not easy, as the data depends heavily on surveys and on extrapolation.  According to the census bureau, however, number less than 250,000 men in recent years are outside the labor force in order to care for children full time. This is only a tiny fraction of the total number of parents who leave the labor force to be stay-at-home parents. That leaves more than six million men who have left the labor force for some other reason. 

    Wages and Social Status

    One thing is fairly clear: labor force participation is worse for men with less schooling. As Kreuger notes, labor force participation for prime age men has fallen for men at all education levels, “but by substantially more for those with a high school degree or less.” Indeed, labor force participation has barely fallen for men with advanced degrees, but has gone into steep decline among high school dropouts and those with no college. 

    Source: Ariel J. Binder and John Bound, “The Declining Labor Market Prospects of Less-Educated Men,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 33, no. 2 (Spring 2019): 170.

    Closely connected to this is the relative wage growth among these groups. While inflation-adjusted wages have increased significantly for men with college-level schooling or more, the same is certainly not true for men with “some college” or less. In these latter groups, earnings have stagnated since 1965, having risen throughout the mid 1970s, falling below the 1965 wage by 1995, and then slowly returning to 1960s levels. While this does not represent a sizable fall in wages in real terms since 1965, it is a large drop relative to the wages of men with more schooling. 

    Source: Ariel J. Binder and John Bound, “The Declining Labor Market Prospects of Less-Educated Men,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 33, no. 2 (Spring 2019): 165.

    (Women, incidentally, have not seen nearly as large declines in wages based on levels of schooling.)

    This growing earnings gap between men at various education levels has been blamed for driving the exit of so many men from the workforce. For example, in a report from the Boston Federal Reserve earlier this month, research Pinghui Wu concludes that relative decline in wages drives more men to leave the workforce than has the overall decline in real wages. Moreover, Wu ties the decline in relative wages to declines in “a worker’s social status.” This effect is seen most strongly in non-Hispanic white men and younger men. Wu writes: “non-college-educated men are more likely to leave the labor force when the top earners in a state make disproportionately more than the other workers.”

    Falling social status has been tied to low job-satisfaction, disability, and higher mortality. All of this tends to lead to lower workforce participation. Moreover, men at lower education and lower wage levels tend to be more prone to workplace injury, given the nature of the work. Indeed, as Ariel Binder and John Bound have shown, men who have exited the labor force say they are frequently in pain, and take pain medication regularly. Men in this group who are over 45 years of age also tend to be more frequently eligible for government disability benefits. Binder and Bound suggest that the expansion of disability benefits in recent decades “could explain up to 25 percent of the rise in nonparticipation among 45–54 year-old high school graduates (without college).”

    The Decline of Marriage

    Wu, Binder, and Bound all also point to another important factor in falling male workforce participation: changes in marriage patterns. 

    Wu notes that men with lower social status fare more poorly in the marriage market, and that “marriage market sorting [a] potential channels through which relative earnings affect men’s labor force exit decisions.” This would also help explain why declining social status also appears to especially affect younger men who are more likely to be active in pursuing a spouse. 

    Binder and Bound meanwhile note declining marriage rates are closely tied to workforce participation overall. This works in both directions: Declining incomes lead to declines in marriage. But unmarried men also have less incentive to actively seek employment. Marriage also may hamper a man’s ability to draw income from existing relatives. Binder and Bound write:

    As others have documented, family structure in the United States has changed dramatically since the 1960s, featuring a tremendous decline in the share of less educated men forming and maintaining stable marriages. We additionally show an increase in the share of less-educated men living with their parents or other relatives. Providing for a new family plausibly provides a man with incentives to engage in labor market activity: conversely, a reduction in the prospects of forming and maintaining a stable family removes an important labor supply incentive. At the same time, the possibility of drawing income support from existing relatives creates a feasible labor-force exit.

    It’s not just men with lower levels of schooling who marry less often, however. Marriage has indeed declined more for lower-income men than higher-income men. Declining marriage rates at the middle-class level and below, however, likely drive falling labor participation independent of wages. That is, “changing family structure shifts male labor supply incentives independently of labor market conditions” as unmarried men are simply less motivated to work.”

    What Is to Blame?

    The importance of relative wages points to the importance of economic factors in the decline of working men.  

    Enormous growth in government intervention in the twentieth century has led to a reversal of nineteenth century trends and led instead to capital consumption. It is notable that since the 1970s, savings and investment have declined, and Mihai Macovai notes ” the real stock of capital per worker has grown in a clear and sustained manner only until the end-1970s and fell afterwards until the trough of the Great Recession.” This has led to declining worker productivity and lower wages for many workers.

    In more recent years, covid lockdowns impacted lower-income workers the most, and lockdowns are likely to raise overall mortality among these workers, as well, even years after the lockdowns ended. Unemployment and intermittent employment is tied to higher mortality rates and disability in both the medium and long terms.

    Finally, a powerful factor is the central bank’s monetary policy which has been linked to a rising gap between higher-income workers and lower-income ones. Easy-money policy has been especially damaging to wealth-building for lower-income groups, as Karen Petrou notes in her book Engine of Inequality:

    Ultra-low [interest] rates fundamentally eviscerated the ability of all but the wealthy to gain an economic toehold; instead they lead investors to drive up equity and other asset prices to achieve their return … but average Americans hold little, if any, stock or investment instruments. Instead, they save what they can in bank accounts. The rates on these have been so low for so long that these thrifty, prudent households have in fact set themselves back with each dollar they save. Pension funds are just as hard-hit meaning not only that average Americans can’t save for the future, but also that the instruments on which they count for additional security are unlikely to meet their needs.

    But not all can be blamed on economic policy. The importance of marriage as a factor in workforce participation illustrates that some aspects of declining workforce participation lie beyond mere economics. Marriage rates for the middle class have continued to fall even in periods when median wages have increased—such as the 1990s. These trends are tied to changes in ideology, religious observance, and a host of social factors. Other factors such as rising drug addiction and obesity affect workforce participation as they are tied to disability and poor health, often at elevated rates among lower-income workers.

    In other words, government policy certainly plays a sizable role in declining male workforce participation, but changing American culture cannot be ignored.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 18:20

  • TSLA Shares Spike After Musk Says 'No More Share Sales Til 2025'
    TSLA Shares Spike After Musk Says ‘No More Share Sales Til 2025’

    After another ugly day for the EV carmaker, Tesla shares are rising the after-hours market following comments from Elon Musk that he will make no more Tesla stock sales until 2025.

    “I’m not selling any stock for 18-24 months. I needed to sell some to make sure there was dry powder for a worst case scenario. You have my commitment that I won’t sell any stock till at least two years from now. I won’t sell stock next year under any circumstances.”

    Shares are up 4% in the after-hours…

    Speaking on Twitter Spaces (here), with 57,000 people listening, Musk also noted that:

    “If we do have another 2009 situation, the stock price of everything’s going to be lower…

    …frankly we’re overdue for a recession”

    Adding that with a “hard landing coming. Why would anyone have stocks?”

    As far as his time being stretched across numerous companies, Musk noted that his attention is primarily focused on Tesla, adding that the carmaker is a far more complex beast than Twitter…

    “Twitter is around 10% of the complexity of Tesla.”

    The Tesla CEO also stated that:

    “My vote is to do a buyback once we’re able to properly calibrate the scale of the recession and make sure Tesla is healthy and not spending its cash reserves and putting the company at risk.”

    Musk added that:

    “I stand by my prediction that long term, Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world. I’m actually fairly confident that will be the case.”

    The discussion was far-reaching with Musk pressed on his political views, which prompted him to quickly respond that he “will not suppress his views to boost the share price.”

    And likely will spark some controversy when one attendee asked him about his ‘trans’ views to which he replied “he doesn’t hate anyone,” and commented that enforcing the use of “pronouns give people an excuse to be an asshole.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 17:45

  • Are Universities Doomed?
    Are Universities Doomed?

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmGreatness.com,

    Elite university degrees certify very little. And the secret is out…

    In a famous exchange in the The Sun Also Rises, Ernest Hemingway wrote: “How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly.”

    “Gradually” and “suddenly” applies to higher education’s implosion. 

    During the 1990s “culture wars” universities were warned that their chronic tuition hikes above the rate of inflation were unsustainable. 

    Their growing manipulation of blanket federal student loan guarantees, and part-time faculty and graduate teaching assistants always was suicidal. 

    Left-wing indoctrination, administrative bloat, obsessions with racial preferences, arcane, jargon-filled research, and campus-wide intolerance of diverse thought short-changed students, further alienated the public—and often enraged alumni.

    Over the last 30 years, enrollments in the humanities and history crashed. So did tenure-track faculty positions. Some $1.7 trillion in federally backed student loans have only greenlighted inflated tuition—and masked the contagion of political indoctrination and watered-down courses. 

     But “gradually” imploding has now become “suddenly.” Zoom courses, a declining pool of students, and soaring costs all prompt the public to question the college experience altogether. 

    Nationwide undergraduate enrollment has dropped by more than 650,000 students in a single year—or over 4 percent alone from spring 2021 to 2022, and some 14 percent in the last decade. Yet the U.S. population still increases by about 2 million people a year.

    Men account for about 71 percent of the current shortfall of students. Women number almost 60 percent of all college students—an all-time high. 

    Monotonous professors hector students about “toxic masculinity,” as “gender” studies proliferate. If the plan was to drive males off campus, universities have succeeded beyond their wildest expectations. 

    The number of history majors has collapsed by 50 percent in just the last 20 years. Tenured history positions have declined by one-third to half at major state universities. 

    In the last decade alone, English majors across the nation’s universities have fallen by a third.

    At Yale University, administrative positions have soared over 150 percent in the last two decades. But the number of professors increased by just 10 percent. In a new low/high, Stanford recently enrolled 16,937 undergraduate and graduate students, but lists 15,750 administrative staff—in near one-to-one fashion.

    In the past, such costly praetorian bloat would have sparked a faculty rebellion. Not now. The new six-figure salaried “diversity, equity, and inclusion” commissars are feared and exempt from criticism.

    Since 2020, the old proportional-representation admissions quotas have expanded into weird “reparatory” admissions. Purported “marginalized populations” have often been admitted at levels greater than percentages in the general population. 

    Consequently, “problematic” standardized tests are damned as biased and antithetical to “diversity.” 

    To accommodate radical diversity reengineering, the only demographic deemed expendable are white males. Their plunging numbers on campus, especially from the working class, are now much less than their percentages in the general population—regardless of grades or test scores. 

    At Yale, the class of 2026 is listed as 50 percent white and 55 percent female. Fourteen percent were admitted as “legacies.” In sum, qualified but poor white males without privilege or connections seem mostly excluded. 

    Stanford’s published 2025 class profile claims a student body of “23 percent white.” Fewer than half of the class is male. Stanford mysteriously does not release the numbers of those successfully admitted without SAT tests—but recently conceded it rejects about 70 percent of those with perfect SAT scores.

    In fact, universities are quietly junking test score requirements. Ironically, these time-honored standardized tests were originally designed to offer those from underprivileged backgrounds, or less competitive high schools, a meritocratic pathway into elite schools. 

    At Cornell, students push for pass/fail courses only and the abolition of all grades. At the New School in New York, students demand that everyone receives “A” grades. Dean’s lists and class and school rankings are equally suspect as counterrevolutionary. Even as courses are watered down, entitled students still assume that their admission must automatically guarantee graduation—or else!

    Skeptical American employers, to remain globally competitive, will likely soon administer their own hiring tests. They already suspect that prestigious university degrees are hollow and certify very little.

    Traditional colleges will seize the moment and expand by sticking to meritocratic criteria as proof of the competency of their prized graduates. 

    Private and online venues will also fill a national need to teach Western civilization and humanities courses—by non-woke faculty who do not institutionalize bias. 

    More students will continue to seek vocational training alternatives. Some will get their degrees online for a fraction of the cost. 

    Alumni will either curb giving, put further restrictions on their gifting, or disconnect. 

    Eventually, even elite schools will lose their current veneer of prestige. Their costly cattle brands will be synonymous with equality-of-result, overpriced indoctrination echo chambers, where therapy replaced singular rigor and their tarnished degrees become irrelevant. 

    How ironic that universities are rushing to erode meritocratic standards—history’s answer to the age-old, pre-civilizational bane of tribal, racial, class, elite, and insider prejudices and bias that eventually ensure poverty and ruin for all.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 17:40

  • Eight Teen Girls Charged In Toronto Stabbing Death Likely Wanted Victim's Bottle of Alcohol: Police
    Eight Teen Girls Charged In Toronto Stabbing Death Likely Wanted Victim’s Bottle of Alcohol: Police

    Authored by Marnie Cathcart via The Epoch Times,

    Eight young females have been charged with second-degree murder in the stabbing death of a 59-year-old Toronto man, Toronto Police Homicide Detective Sergeant Terry Browne said at a news conference on Dec. 21. He said it is believed the girls were trying to get a bottle of alcohol from the victim.

    “Eight young girls and most under the age of 16⁠—if this isn’t alarming and shocking to everyone, then we’re all in trouble quite frankly,” Browne told reporters.

    “I’ve been in policing for almost 35 years and you think you’ve seen it all,” Browne said.

    “Anyone who isn’t shocked with hearing something like this has clearly just thrown in the towel and just said that anything is possible in this world.”

    The girls made their first court appearance on Dec. 18 and have been remanded into custody. The next court date has been set for Dec. 29.

    Witnesses Needed

    Police have asked members of the public to come forward if they witnessed the event or have video footage. Investigators are requesting any video surveillance from the intersection of York Street and University Avenue in Toronto on Dec. 18 at 12:05 a.m. Any surveillance footage in the area from an hour before that until a couple hours after that are appreciated as well.

    Browne described the alleged attack as a “swarming.” He said the girls⁠—three aged 13, three aged 14, and two aged 16⁠—were allegedly in an earlier altercation in the area earlier in the evening of Dec. 17, around 10 p.m. Police said the girls met through social media and came from varying parts of the city.

    “I wouldn’t describe them as a gang at this point,” said the police officer, adding that what is alleged to have occurred “would be consistent with what we traditionally call a swarming or swarming type of behaviour.”

    “Maybe these were eight young women that wanted to make a name for themselves and see if they could become socially famous,” he said.

    Police believe they all acted in unison.

    ‘Swarm’

    “They are all equally culpable,” he said. “There is no doubt in our minds that they were all working as a singular entity in a swarming mob mentality when they chose to attack this man.”

    “We don’t know how or why they met on that evening and why the destination was downtown Toronto,” said Browne.

    “We don’t know how long they’ve been acquainted.”

    Three of the youth have had prior contact with police services. Police also secured a number of weapons but have not indicated what was taken into evidence.

    The homicide occurred on Dec. 18 at approximately 12:17 a.m. Police responded to a call for help to the York Street and University Area, after being told that a man had allegedly been assaulted and stabbed by a group of teenage girls.

    The victim was transported to the hospital with life-threatening injuries but did not survive. The man’s name has not been released as police said next of kin is still being notified. The police will not name the young girls as their identity is protected by the Youth Criminal Justice Act.

    The man was not homeless, although police said he had moved into the shelter system in late fall, despite having a very supportive family in the area.

    “I wouldn’t necessarily call him homeless, maybe just recently on some hard luck,” Browne said.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 17:00

  • Philadelphia Hits 500 Homicides For Second Year In A Row
    Philadelphia Hits 500 Homicides For Second Year In A Row

    Philadelphia marked a second year of out-of-control violence, hitting 500 homicides this week as elected officials scramble to address two of the worst years in a long time.

    “As of today, 500 people’s lives have been cut short by senseless violence in our city,” said Mayor Jim Kenney (D) during a Monday press conference. That’s 500 of our friends, neighbors, colleagues and family members. As we enter this holiday season, I can’t help but think of all the incredible potential that has been extinguished by this loss of life.”

    Most affected are black males between the age of 18 and 45.

    Screenshot via comptroller.phila.gov

    While down 7% from 2021, when the city reported 562 killings – the highest on record, Philly’s crime wave has caught the attention of state lawmakers, who in November took the unprecedented step of impeaching District Attorney Larry Krasner by a vote of 107-85, over the city’s lack of action and alleged misconduct.

    Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner addresses a mass shooting at a press conference. Pennsylvania state House Republicans voted in November to impeach Krasner, claiming he was responsible for the rise of crime across the city.  (FOX 29 Philadelphia)

    Krasner was also accused of obstructing a House committee investigation, according to Fox News.

    “They have impeached me without presenting a single shred of evidence connecting our policies to any uptick in crime,” Krasner said at the time. “We were never given the opportunity to defend our ideas and policies – policies I would have been proud to explain. That Pennsylvania Republicans willfully avoided hearing the facts about my office is shameful.”

    Two weeks ago we reported that crime in Philadelphia has gotten so out of control that local gas station owners have turned to hiring heavily armed guards.

    “They are forcing us to hire the security, high-level security, state level,” said Karco gas station owner, Neil Patel, who has recruited Kevlar-clad S.I.T.E. agents packing AR-15s or shotguns. “We are tired of this nonsense; robbery, drug trafficking, hanging around, gangs,” Fox5 reported at the time.

    The final straw for Patel after his business was reportedly vandalized by young people who stole an ATM machine. His car has also been a casualty of crime, according to the report.

    “We wear Kevlar, we are trained, my guards go to training every other week, they’re proficient with [their guns] and with their taser, they know the law,” said police chief Andre Boyer.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 16:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Dec 22

Today’s News 22nd December 2022

  • Caroline Ellison Throws SBF Under The Bus: Pleads Guilty To Fraud, Agrees To Cooperate With The DOJ
    Caroline Ellison Throws SBF Under The Bus: Pleads Guilty To Fraud, Agrees To Cooperate With The DOJ

    Two weeks ago, when amid reports that the former CEO of Alameda Capital (which as a reminder was ground zero of the FTX implosion after it blew up $8 billion in FTX client funds on trades gone horribly wrong), Caroline Ellison, was spotted in New York just after retaining Clinton superlawyer, Jamie Gorelick of Wilmer Hale, which as readers may recall was the former No. 2 ranking member in the Clinton Justice Department, and in a recent interview, she referred to current AG Merrick Garland as her “wingman”, we asked if Caroline had rolled on Sam Bankman-Fried, who was also her former lover.

    Fast forward to today when we just got confirmation that Caroline Ellison has fucked Bankman-Fried one final time by indeed rolling on him, and “turning states” in the criminal prosecution of the corpulent “Hairy Plotter“, who commingled and stole the client money in his FTX exchange to fund a series of terrible crypto bets at his personal hedge fund Alameda, fund tens of millions in donations to democrats and buy up prestigious real estate for himself and his “altruistic” progressive lawyer parents.

    According to a Manhattan Federal prosecutor, two of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s closest associates have pleaded guilty to fraud and agreed to co-operate with US authorities investigating the collapse of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange. In other words, they took a plea deal to avoid even more prison time in exchange for serving SBF on a silver platter to the Feds.

    Damian Williams, the US attorney for the Southern District of New York, announced the guilty pleas and criminal charges against Caroline Ellison and Zixiao “Gary” Wang, the low profile co-founder of FTX, in a short video statement. His office had brought eight charges against Bankman-Fried last week.

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    Ellison pleaded guilty to seven counts, including wire and securities fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering, which carry a maximum sentence of 110 years in prison, while Wang pleaded guilty to four counts of fraud, with a maximum 50-year sentence.

    The documents said prosecutors would not oppose bail requests from both defendants under certain conditions, including posting a bond and handing in their travel documents, as they awaited formal sentencing.

    Concurrently, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also filed civil lawsuits against the 28-year-old Ellison and 29-year-old Wang, accusing them of fraud.

    “As part of their deception, we allege that Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried schemed to manipulate the price of FTT, an exchange crypto security token that was integral to FTX, to prop up the value of their house of cards,” said SEC chair Gary Gensler. Furthermore, as CEO of the FTX trading affiliate, Ellison “used FTX’s customer assets to pay Alameda’s debts” and diverted billions of dollars of depositors’ money to the company to fill a hole caused by a crypto market crash in May, the SEC’s complaint alleges.

    The CFTC said Wang had a hand in creating some of the algorithms that underpinned FTX, which allowed Alameda “to maintain an essentially unlimited line of credit” on the exchange, giving it an “unfair advantage” over regular depositors. “These critical code features and structural exceptions allowed Alameda to secretly and recklessly siphon FTX customer assets from the FTX platform.”

    Both defendants are co-operating with the SEC, the agency said. The CFTC said they were not contesting their liability. Which means that SBF is looking at a lot of prison time, unless he too can throw someone even more important and powerful under the bus…

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    … although if that is the case, he probably will be Epsteined within hours of arriving at MDC Brooklyn, singe MCC New York where Epstein “killed himself”, has been closed since August 2021 due to deteriorating conditions.

    While Ellison’s superlawyers have yet to make a statement, a lawyer for Wang, Ilan Graff, said: “Gary has accepted responsibility for his actions and takes seriously his obligations as a co-operating witness.”

    Last week, the DOJ filed charges against Bankman-Fried and accused him of orchestrating “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history” by misappropriating customer assets from FTX to Alameda Research. He was arrested in the Bahamas, where he lives. He is also facing parallel civil cases from the SEC and CFTC.

    Williams reiterated his call for others who worked with Bankman-Fried to come forward. “If you participated in misconduct at FTX or Alameda, now is the time to get ahead of it,” he said. “We are moving quickly and our patience is not eternal.” One of them is former Alameda CEO Sam Trabucco, best known for quietly bailing on Sam just as everyone was about to blow up and fleeing on his multi-million dollar new yacht.

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    The announcement from Williams comes just after a plane carrying Bankman-Fried took off from the Bahamas, where he waived his right to challenge extradition to the US. He is due to appear in a Manhattan court as soon as Thursday, where his bail request will be considered, although in light of Caroline’s plea, it is safe to say it won’t be granted.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 12/22/2022 – 01:13

  • It Was Always About Control
    It Was Always About Control

    Authored by Richard Kelly via The Brownstone Institute,

    Early on in March 2020 I was leery of the hysteria surrounding Covid and decided my course of action was to be wait and see. At the time I was under the impression that I was a freeborn citizen with a number of unalienable rights, including sovereignty over my bodily choices.

    So when the talk started about new vaccines being imminent, I again decided I would wait and see whether the vaccines were all they were cracked up to be. This was then, and is now, an entirely reasonable position to take, screeching from media and Twitter hounds notwithstanding. I didn’t expect it would turn out to be more like “wait and see how totally out of hand this will get.”

    • Wait and see how the government will forcibly close businesses

    • Wait and see how treatments will be suppressed

    • Wait and see how hysteria captured the media

    • Wait and see how healthy populations will be subject to house arrest

    • Wait and see how police will shoot protesters

    • Wait and see how a pregnant mother will be arrested for a Facebook post

    • Wait and see how medical services across state borders will be denied

    • Wait and see how ‘wait and see-ers’ will be demonized

    • Wait and see how family and friends will betray their loved ones

    Well, I’ve waited long enough and I’ve seen more than enough. Thankfully the worst, most violent excesses have abated for now, if you exclude the ongoing carnage of short and long-term vaccine injury. There are lingering abominations from the blitzkrieg of lockdowns and vaccine mandates, but generally there is a sense that an uneasy peace, or maybe a phoney war, has descended on us.

    Of course, there is still a serious amount of Covid pantomime going on.

    Exhibit A: a TV news report recently showed a road accident victim doing rehab with a mask on, then happily chatting without a mask to the reporter, also without a mask. If he was worried about Covid he’d leave it on for the interview, or if he wasn’t worried he wouldn’t wear it while doing rehab. Seems you can have it both ways these days provided you don’t think about it too much.

    Exhibit B: Last year cricket teams in the BBL were decimated if one of the players had a positive test, and others were ‘close contacts.’ Umpires refused to hold a bowler’s cap or sunglasses for fear of the spicy cough. Last night, two players on one team played despite not only testing positive, but also feeling unwell. If there is no practical change when a player has Covid, why do we need to know about it?

    Answer: we don’t, but it has become normalised to disclose players’ private health statuses, just as it is normalised now to ask anyone any kind of detailed personal health question that satiates the questioner’s ghoulish fetishes. While player fitness has always been a matter of interest to sports fans, especially those who like a bet, illness used to be dealt with in a formulaic way, such as “Player X is not playing tonight due to illness.” There’s no need to know any further details.

    Exhibit C: The memorial concert for aboriginal singer Archie Roach included a pre-concert ‘smoking ceremony’ in which footage aired for a news report showed a woman dancing through the ceremonial smoke – while wearing a mask. This example is probably less deliberate pantomime and more genuine irrationality. Anyone donning a mask and expecting to keep a virus out but let smoke in has taken leave of their rationality. Ironically, in this case the mask may actually do some good in preventing larger smoke particles entering the lungs – what firefighters call ‘smoke inhalation.’

    It is counterproductive to scoff at these insanities – those who have not yet come in their own time to see the inconsistencies are not suddenly going to see the light because of a witty remark. The most likely reaction is an equally irrational, and possibly heated defence of the person or the rule. In valued relationships, the only sensible course is studied silence. Even a raised eyebrow in front of the TV can crank the tension in the room up a notch or two.

    But these annoyances over masks and ‘Covid protocols,’ that overused euphemism for voodoo superstitions, are yesterday’s skirmishes in a war that has moved on to other theatres. The central battle is about freedom and autonomy. To the extent that the spoils of the ‘mask and protocol’ incursions can be re-weaponised against us, winning the freedom and autonomy battle will be that much harder.

    How can we resist curbs on movement having once complied with QR scanning for going to the shops? Think it couldn’t happen?

    Oxford city council in the UK is moving ahead with a scheme to confine residents to one of 6 zones using electronic gates on roads and limited number of trips across zones.

    How could we resist a forced medical treatment having once rolled over to experimental gene therapy?

    How can we fight against programmable digital currency when once we have accepted ‘card only’ cashiers and accommodated the idea of shopping for ‘essential items’ only and allowing a cop to rummage around in our shopping trolley?

    The legislative bricks in the wall continue to be put into place with little if any scrutiny. Doctors are now unable to give opinions that depart from government health advice without risking de-registration. Pandemic laws born as bastard sons of parliaments suspended under state of emergency powers are now legitimised as permanent statutes, requiring only a declaration to bring them all into force once again. Digital ID’s are now compulsory for all company directors, including Mums and Dads who happen to be directors of their own superannuation funds. Ordinary citizens are surely next.

    How is it that our lawmakers feel it appropriate to make these kinds of changes? No one asked for them. How is it they can ignore letters and petitions? Why do they partner with unelected globalists and make treaties we won’t be allowed to vote on? How is it that our civil rights institutions were so toothless? They didn’t even utter a whimper, let alone a growl. How is it that our professional bodies and business associations were silent?

    Only a few brave souls protested. How is it that our police forces humiliated themselves to the point where they were taping off children’s playgrounds and fining elderly women for sitting on a park bench? We long ago gave up on the idea that the mainstream media would hold authorities to account.

    In the end the explanations, whether we get them or not, whether they make sense or not, are beside the point. Nothing can change what happened. By some miracle we might avert what they have planned, but it’s going to be a hell of a fight.

    Once upon a time, we sweated on daily case numbers when the new cases per day were less than 10; now we barely think of them, and they are in the thousands, if not the tens of thousands. There’s only one conclusion to be drawn – it was never about public health, and it still isn’t. It was always about control.

    *  *  *

    Reprinted from the author’s Substack

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 23:40

  • These Are The Most Valuable NFL Teams In 2022
    These Are The Most Valuable NFL Teams In 2022

    The world’s most valuable sports teams include internationally beloved soccer clubs, massive NBA franchises, and renowned MLB teams. But, it’s the National Football League (NFL) that arguably tops them all.

    In June 2022, the Denver Broncos sold for $4.65 billion, a record for the most expensive team purchase. But if other teams were to sell, they’d potentially command an even greater price tag.

    Which teams, and conferences, reign supreme in value? This graphic by Truman Du uses data from Forbes last calculated in August 2022 to show the most valuable NFL teams.

    NFL Teams by Value

    To calculate team values, Forbes used enterprise values (total team equity plus net debt) and factored in each team’s stadium-related revenue. This includes non-NFL revenue that accrues to each team’s owner, but doesn’t account for the stadium’s real estate value.

    The findings? NFL teams continue to become more valuable, rising in 2022 to an average of $4.47 billion, an increase of 28% year-over-year.

    At the top of the rankings, the Dallas Cowboys sit at an estimated valuation of $8 billion, making them the most valuable sports team in the world.

    They were the first team to generate over $1 billion in annual revenue thanks to massive sponsorship deals, including an estimated $220 million in stadium advertising and sponsorship revenue.

    This is especially impressive, since NFL teams actually share just over 70% of football-related revenue. As Forbes points out, the Cowboys have been the most successful at capitalizing on stadium and branding in order to boost external revenues.

    Most Valuable NFL Teams by Conference

    Truman also broke down NFL team valuations by conference, highlighting the extra monetary weight one has over the other.

    The National Football Conference (NFC) and the American Football Conference (AFC) were formed in 1970 after the NFL merged with the rival American Football League. Over time and as the league has expanded, the conferences have shifted and realigned to end up at 4 divisions of 4 teams for 16 teams each as of 2022.

    Impressively, NFC teams had an average valuation about $500 million higher than the AFC. It also had five of the six most valuable teams, with just the #2 New England Patriots representing the AFC at the top.

    But with the most recent record sale taking place in the AFC (Denver Broncos), and more potential high-profile relocations and sales in the wings, the landscape of NFL team values might shift yet again in the near future.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 23:20

  • FBI Says Twitter Infiltration Business As Usual , Slams 'Conspiracy Theorists'
    FBI Says Twitter Infiltration Business As Usual , Slams ‘Conspiracy Theorists’

    The FBI has issued a statement in response to the Elon Musk’s release of THE TWITTER FILES, which boils down to ‘Of course we’ve embedded ourselves in social media companies, and anyone who has a problem with it is a conspiracy theorist trying to tarnish our stellar reputation.’

    “The correspondence between the FBI and Twitter show nothing more than examples of our tradition, longstanding and ongoing federal government and private sector engagements, which involve numerous companies over multiple sectors and industries.

    As evidenced in the correspondence, the FBI provides critical information to the private sector in an effort to allow them to protect themselves and their customers.

    The men and women of the FBI work every day to protect the American public.

    It is unfortunate that conspiracy theorists and others are feeding the American public misinformation with the sole purpose of attempting to discredit the agency.”

    Aside from the obvious absurdity of the organization which participated in the Russia hoax and told Martin Luther King Jr. to kill himself suggesting they’ve got a modicum of credibility – did the FBI just assume there are only two genders when there are in fact 58, according to Facebook? Terribly bigoted of them.

    The FBI also claims they did not provide Twitter with any “specific instructions or details regarding the Hunter Biden laptop story,” adding “We did not request anything of the sort..”

    Ah – so it was only the ex-FBI guy at Twitter, not the FBI, suggesting it. 

    At the end of the day;

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    Whatever it took, right?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 23:07

  • China's Deal With Saudi Arabia Is A Disaster For Biden
    China’s Deal With Saudi Arabia Is A Disaster For Biden

    Authored by Con Coughlin via The Gatestone Institute,

    Nothing better illustrates the utter ineptitude of the Biden administration’s dealings with the Middle East than Saudi Arabia’s decision to forge a strategic alliance with China.

    This is a time when Washington should be working overtime to strengthen its ties with long-standing allies like the Saudis to combat the mounting threat Iran poses to the region’s security.

    Apart from the deeply alarming progress the ayatollahs are said to be making with their efforts to produce nuclear weapons,

    The new “axis of evil” that has been formed between Moscow and Tehran in recent months means Iran will soon be taking delivery of state-of-the-art Russian warplanes to add to its military arsenal.

    In what both the White House and Downing Street described as “sordid deals” between the two countries, Iran is due to take delivery of Russian Su-35 fighter jets next year as well as other advanced military equipment and components, including helicopters and air defence systems. In return Iran is providing Russia with hundreds of its Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 so-called kamikaze drones, which self-destruct on hitting their target.

    As US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby explained at a briefing in Washington, Moscow has “offered Iran an unprecedented level of military and technical support”, which “transforms their relationship into a full defense partnership”.

    Biden administration officials added that Iranian pilots were already being trained in Russia on how to fly the Su-35 fighter.

    By any standard, the deepening military cooperation between Russia and Iran should serve as a wake-up call to the Biden administration to redouble its efforts to reaffirm its commitment to key allies in the region such as the Saudis, who are committed to resisting any attempt by Tehran to expand its malign influence in the region.

    Riyadh’s determination to resist Iran’s aggressive conduct was reflected in recent comments made by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud who warned that “all bets are off” if Iran succeeds in its goal of acquiring an operational nuclear weapon.

    “We are in a very dangerous space in the region… you can expect that regional states will certainly look towards how they can ensure their own security,” he said.

    Riyadh’s robust approach to Iran’s bellicose conduct is exactly the sort of response Washington needs to see from its allies as it faces up to the Iranian threat. Yet, thanks to the Biden administration’s wilful neglect of its relations with the Saudis, Riyadh is instead looking to build a partnership with Beijing, as was evident from the lavish reception given to Chinese President Xi Jinping during his state visit to the kingdom this month.

    Rarely has a visiting leader been the recipient of such lavish state pageantry as Xi after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spared no effort to afford the Chinese leader a warm welcome, which included a jet escort on his arrival.

    During his three-day visit, Xi held extensive talks with the Crown Prince, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, as well as other senior Saudi officials and signed a strategic partnership agreement that will deepen ties between Riyadh and Beijing on a range of issues, from defence to technology.

    One particularly eye-catching aspect of the agreement was a deal with the Chinese tech giant Huawei to supply the Saudis with cloud computing services and allow “high-tech” complexes to be built in Saudi cities, according to Saudi officials.

    Huawei has been designated a potential security threat by the US, with intelligence officials claiming that the company has close links to China’s ruling Communist Party and could be used to conduct spying operations.

    That Riyadh is now moving away from its traditional alliance with the US and strengthening its ties with Beijing is a strategic disaster of epic proportions, and serves as a damning indictment of the Biden administration’s careless treatment of the Saudis, for which the president is personally to blame.

    Biden set the tone for his strained relationship with the Saudi royal family during the 2020 presidential election contest when he denounced the kingdom as a “pariah” state over its involvement in the murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul in 2018, although there has never any audible distress from the Biden administration over Iran’s 2007 abduction and presumed death of ex-FBI agent Robert Levinson.

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though, forced Biden to rethink his attitude towards the Saudis when it suddenly dawned on him that he needed the Saudis to increase oil supplies to ease the pressure on global prices.

    His efforts achieved little: the Saudis were apparently unimpressed with Biden greeting the Crown Prince with a fist-bump when he visited the kingdom in the summer, and he came away empty-handed, with the Saudis and other Gulf states ignoring his plea to increase oil production.

    Apart from being dismayed about Biden’s obsession with reviving the controversial nuclear deal with Tehran, which they regard as a flawed agreement — it allows the Iranian regime soon to build as many nuclear weapons as it likes as well, as the ballistic missiles to deliver them — the Saudis and other Gulf leaders are unhappy with the lack of support they have received from Washington over the constant threat they face from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, whom Secretary of State Antony Blinken removed from the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations just a few weeks into Biden’s term, and who since then regularly fired Iranian-made missiles and drones into Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

    Now, thanks to Biden’s incompetent management of the US-Saudi relationship, Riyadh is looking to China to protect its interests, a move that confirms the alarming decline in US influence in the region that has taken place under the vacuum in Biden’s leadership.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 23:00

  • Child Homicide Rates Soar In The US
    Child Homicide Rates Soar In The US

    Black children in the U.S. as well as those between the ages of 16 and 17 were about 50 percent more likely to become the victim of a homicide in 2020 than just two years earlier.

    In a study published yesterday in the scientific journal Jama Pediatrics, researchers affiliated with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the U.S. Department of Defense and Georgia State University analyzed data both from the CDC as well as the National Violent Death Reporting System.

    Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes that other groups of children for whom the chance of becoming a homicide victim rose were boys and 11- to 15-year-olds. The rates of homicides in Hispanic children and those between the ages of 6 and 10 also increased, albeit somewhat slower. Generally, black and brown children as well as older children were most at risk of homicide according to the findings. Rates were also up among children in the Southern United States and those living in rural and urban areas.

    According to the New York Times, the prevalence of child homicide was much higher in the U.S. than in other developed countries.

    Infographic: Child Homicide Rates Rise in the U.S. | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The authors of the paper said that geographic and racial differences in child homicide rates needed to be addressed and called for tailored approaches according to age group, as younger children are most often killed by caregivers while older ones are more likely to fall victim to homicides in connection to criminal activity or arguments outside of their homes.

    While around 80 percent of homicides in the U.S. are gun deaths, this number stood at 50 percent for children most recently as especially younger children were more likely to die by physical assault.

    According to the study, homicides rates had declined for girls, children under the age of 6, white children, Asian/Pacific Islander children and children in the Northeastern United States.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 22:40

  • Peter Schiff: The Private Sector Can Lead Us Back To A Gold Standard
    Peter Schiff: The Private Sector Can Lead Us Back To A Gold Standard

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    Peter Schiff recently appeared on the Jay Martin Show. During the interview, explains how the private sector can ultimately lead the world back to a gold standard.

    Early in the discussion, Peter talks about investing, saying people need to be in something besides cash.

    People have to go somewhere. I think you just can’t be in cash because all of these governments are just printing too much money. The inflation problem is worldwide. And it’s because all of these central banks made the same mistake.”

    The world’s central banks basically followed the lead of the Federal Reserve.

    We kind of corrupted the monetary policy of the whole world.”

    As the US cut rates to zero, other major central banks did the same. In fact, some implemented negative interest rate policies to get their rates below America’s.

    But Peter said the dollar’s status as the world reserve currency won’t last forever.

    I think the world is going to reject the dollar. It’s already happening.”

    Peter noted the de-dollarization efforts in many countries due to the fact that the US has weaponized the dollar and used it as a foreign policy tool.

    Peter said when the dollar falls from its peak, Americans will face a rapidly declining standard of living.

    America’s ability to live beyond its means is a function of the dollar’s reserve status. Because we can print dollars and use those dollars that we print to buy goods and services — mainly goods that we didn’t produce.”

    So, what will replace the dollar?

    There is no question that gold is going to re-emerge as the monetary unit of choice for the world. It’s not an accident that gold was money for 5,000 years. It’s been money for so long because it works.”

    But Peter said he doesn’t think a new gold standard will be imposed by governments.

    I think that the free market is going to reject the dollar and other currencies because they’re a flawed form of money because they are no longer a store of value.”

    Peter pointed out that other private entities have undercut government monopolies in the past. For instance, FedEx and UPS managed to crack the US Post Office monopoly on parcel delivery.

    And with the advancement of technology, it’s now possible to easily transact business in gold. Blockchain technology makes it possible to tokenize gold and easily transfer it from one party to another.

    Bitcoin guys are like, ‘Oh, see, blockchain is the death of gold.’ No, it’s going to lead to the rebirth of gold. Because bitcoin is what we don’t need. Gold is what gives the digital currency its value.”

    Jay brought up the point that a gold standard facilitated through the blockchain would still depend on third parties for payment processing and gold storage. But Peter argued that we’ve always depended on third parties. That’s not a problem in a competitive free market. The problems arise when that third party is a government.

    We’ve always been trusting third parties and it’s worked. The only time it doesn’t work is when the third party is a government. That’s when they screwed us.”

    Peter said he thinks the private sector will lead the world back to a gold standard because there ultimately is a demand for sound money.

    The government has a monopoly on money and we’re being overcharged through inflation to use government money. So, the private sector comes up with an alternative.”

    During this interview, Peter and Jay also talk about inflation, jobs, the FTX collapse, stocks, investing, and more.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 22:20

  • Americans Anticipate Economic & Environmental Trouble In 2023
    Americans Anticipate Economic & Environmental Trouble In 2023

    Americans aren’t feeling great about the economy and the environment in the coming year, according to the latest poll by Ipsos.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck details below, out of approximately 1,000 surveyed U.S. adults, more than three quarters said that prices in their country will increase faster than people’s wages, while around two thirds said unemployment will be higher than in 2022.

    Infographic: Americans Anticipate Economic & Environmental Trouble | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    At the same time, 65 percent of respondents think it’s likely that a natural disaster will hit a city in the United States in the coming year, marking a slight uptick of 2 percent since the end of 2021. This last concern is more widespread in the U.S. than most of the other 31 countries surveyed by Ipsos on the topic, with only a higher share of respondents saying it was likely a natural disaster will occur in their countries in Indonesia (78 percent) and Turkey (66 percent).

    When it comes to the climate, roughly half of U.S. respondents (52 percent) believe that the coming year will bring some of the hottest weather on record, with a third (36 percent) even saying that parts of the country will become unlivable due to an extreme weather event. This year alone, the world has seen multiple records broken in terms of peak temperatures, with widespread droughts, as well as devastating wildfires. At the same time, most respondents were doubtful of whether there will be a breakthrough in technology developed which will halt climate change next year, with only 23 percent agreeing it was likely, falling short of the slightly more optimistic global average of 32 percent.

    In spite of all this however, respondents have not all lost hope. Around two thirds of U.S. adults still said that they thought next year would be better than 2022.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 22:00

  • CDC Funding Decisions Based Largely On Politics, Not Science
    CDC Funding Decisions Based Largely On Politics, Not Science

    Authored by John Lott Jr via RealClearPolitics.com,

    For the second year in a row, the Centers for Disease Control has been caught ignoring science and letting liberal interest groups set its policies…

    In 2021, the American Pediatric Academy and the Children’s Hospital Association tracked COVID-19 statistics in children and the data show no relationship between mask mandates and the rate at which children caught the disease. In the face of this evidence – and other data showing that masks harm children’s development, the CDC supported masking students after being pressured by the National Education Association (the nation’s largest teachers’ union).

    Now comes word that CDC is again allowing partisan politics to influence its policies. This time, gun control activists got the CDC to remove research from its website. Yet, the CDC is trusted to impartially dole out millions of dollars for public health research on firearms: From 2020 to 2022, the CDC and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) each spent about $50 million on such research.

    Until May of this year, the CDC cited a 2013 National Academies of Sciences (NAS) report showing that the annual number of defensive gun uses ranged from about 64,000 to 3 million. The CDC website listed the upper figure at 2.5 million. But now, the CDC has removed from its website all of those numbers and even the link to the NAS report.

    Following introductions from the White House and Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, gun control advocates linked up with the CDC. They had a private meeting and numerous email exchanges, in which they lobbied hard to have the CDC remove the information.

    “[T]hat 2.5 Million number needs to be killed, buried, dug up, killed again and buried again,” Mark Bryant, who runs the Gun Violence Archive (GVA), wrote to CDC officials after their meeting.

    “It is highly misleading, is used out of context and I honestly believe it has zero value – even as an outlier point in honest DGU [Defensive Gun Use] discussions.” He was upset that the 2.5 million number “has been used so often to stop [gun control] legislation.”

    The Department of Justice’s National Crime Victimization Survey estimates that there are between 64,000 and 120,000 instances each year in which a firearm is used defensively. This is on the low end of all the other social science on this subject. Some 20 such surveys have been conducted. Three of them show about 800,000 defensive gun uses a year. All the other estimates are over 1 million, with one as high as 3.5 million. The average estimate is about 2 million. William English of Georgetown University surveyed 16,708 gun owners just last year, and estimated that there are 1.67 million such uses annually.

    The National Crime Victimization Survey’s low numbers result from its choice of a screening question. It first asks a person if they have been a victim of a crime. Only respondents who answer “yes” are then asked if they have used a gun defensively. Yet, people who successfully brandish a gun generally do not view themselves as having been victimized.

    Devin Hughes, who runs another gun control group, GVPedia, argued in a July 6, 2021 email to the CDC that it should use the Gun Violence Archive (GVA) estimate of defensive gun uses. Hughes claimed that the GVA is “the most widely accepted compendium of gun violence data.” Between January and mid-December this year, the GVA claims that there were only 1,112 defensive gun uses in the United States.

    Last year, RealClearInvestigations examined Gun Violence Archive’s data from Jan. 1 to Aug. 10 and found 774 defensive gun uses. Ninety-five percent of these self-defense cases were from initial news reports. I checked those cases against other lists compiled by the Heritage Foundation and the Crime Prevention Research Center, and found that the GVA had missed an additional 30 cases. But that wasn’t the important problem.

    What makes defensive gun uses newsworthy doesn’t accurately reflect the real world. In GVA’s statistics, 43% of the GVA’s gun violence cases involve fatalities, 42% involve woundings, and 10% are cases in which shots were fired defensively that don’t hit anyone. Less than 4% of cases involved no shots fired, and more than half of those involve the criminal being held at gunpoint until the police arrive. But as gun control experts know, these kinds of cases represent a tiny fraction of the instances in which firearms are used defensively for self-protection.

    First of all, relying on the news media is not an accurate way to gather crime data. Criminologists know that less than one-quarter of violent crimes are reported to police. Nor does the news media even cover most violent crimes reported to police. Second, and much more significantly, about 95% of defensive gun uses involve brandishing a weapon.

    Bryant defends the reliance on media accounts, and discounts the argument that the media disproportionately covers the most violent cases. “I don’t think it is a newsworthy issue … too many media really like the feel-good stories of homeowner standing up to home invader,” Bryant wrote me last year. “Even better if it was a granny doing it. They don’t just go with the ‘if it bleeds …’ newsworthiness.”

    This is a naïve view of how newsrooms operate. Suppose an editor is presented with two stories, one with a dead body on the ground and another where no one was hurt because the would-be victim brandished a gun and the criminal ran away. And in the later story you can’t even be sure what crime would have been committed. Which story would you run in your hometown newspaper paper?

    But even that isn’t really the point. When a law-abiding citizen scares off a would-be criminal by brandishing a legal firearm, journalists don’t typically wrestle with its newsworthiness for the simple reason that such cases are reported to neither the police nor the press. That’s why rigorous social science studies are necessary – the precise kind the CDC is censoring to benefit special interests.

    Unfortunately, Democrats in Congress have earmarked the $100 million in research funding for public health researchers who are far to the left on gun control compared to criminologists or economists.

    The CDC keeps making decisions based on politics, not science. It has shown that it is not able to divorce political views from decisions about who to fund. But, as researchers know all too well, the CDC isn’t unique. The government just can’t keep politics out of funding decisions.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 21:40

  • Chinese Stocks Decouple From World Most Since 2001
    Chinese Stocks Decouple From World Most Since 2001

    By Ye Xie, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist

    This year marks another turbulent period for Chinese markets. It also highlights a striking feature: Chinese stocks are more isolated from the rest of the world than they’ve been for more than two decades.

    For some investors, that underscores the diversification benefit of investing in China. For others, the unique risks strengthen the argument for carving out China from the rest of emerging markets.

    Even with a rally over the past month, Chinese stocks remain among global underperformers this year. The MSCI China Index has lost 26%, compared with a decline of 19% of the MSCI all-country index.

    Plus, volatility has been high throughout the year, punctuated by the Shanghai lockdown, tension around Taiwan and skepticism toward China’s new leadership following the Party Congress. Adding to these local market drivers, China is the only major economy that lowered borrowing costs.

    With these idiosyncratic risks, it’s not surprising that the Chinese markets are increasingly out of sync with the rest of the world. The annual correlation between the MSCI China Index and MSCI’s global benchmark has dropped to 0.22, a level last seen in 2001 when China joined the World Trade Organization. In the bond market, 10-year bond government yields rose only 12 basis points, while US Treasury notes with same maturity jumped more than 200 basis points.

    The low correlation has long been seen as one of the attractiveness for investing in China. On the flip side, it also strengthens the case to treat China as a standalone asset class.

    Since the US-China trade war in 2018, the chorus for separating China from the rest emerging markets has grown louder. For starters, China, was simply too big. Even with the decline in recent years, China still accounts for about 30% of the MSCI emerging markets index. Secondly, some investors already have exposure through dedicated China funds. With China as a big chunk of the emerging market index, investors may have exposed to the country more than they want.

    More importantly, Beijing is seeking to reduce its reliance on foreign countries in strategic industries, such as semiconductors, and in capital markets amid the tension with the West. That means China’s industrial, monetary and fiscal policy cycles may be different from the others.

    That separation trend is already clear. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF attracted a record $577 million in November, one month after President Xi Jinping installed his allies in the leadership at the Party Congress. Until 2021, the fund was struggling attracting investors.

    Next year, China is expected to be the only major economy to see its growth pick up. If materialized, it will again showcase the need to invest China differently.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 21:00

  • Facing Demographic Doom, China's Army Of Retirees Returns To Work In Post "Zero-Covid" Economic Wasteland
    Facing Demographic Doom, China’s Army Of Retirees Returns To Work In Post “Zero-Covid” Economic Wasteland

    The myth of the US labor shortage is about to come crashing down courtesy of the Philadelphia Fed (just as we have been warning for months), but it is about to be replaced with the stark reality of China’s all too real lack of workers.

    Consider the following story from the SCMP: two years after Zhao Yanfang’s mandatory retirement from her blue-collar job in the canteen of a state-owned enterprise, the 52-year-old is back to work – this time at a noodle restaurant in Beijing. On a recent slow day, she taps buttons on a mobile device, inputting orders for patrons who present various coupons acquired through different channels – including the company’s own app, and food-delivery platforms – while reading off the day’s specials for dine-in customers.

    “It’s all for the sake of my son,” she says, explaining how the father of her twin grandchildren lost his job during the pandemic. “Were it not for supporting his family, I would never have bothered working after retirement, trying to learn this complicated ordering system.

    “I thought my three decades of work experience would be enough for waitressing. I didn’t expect it would be so challenging.”

    Zhao is among the millions of China’s retirees who have re-entered the job market or are looking to do so as the financial burden on Chinese families mounts from the government’s disruptive zero-Covid strategy that has crippled business and hammered the economy. Beijing has also been encouraging retirees to return to work as the rapidly aging country faces a long-term decline in its workforce.

    China’s working-age population, aged 16-64, is forecast to drop by 35 million over the next five years and to plunge by more than 60% over the next eight decades, according to a report released by the United Nations in July. At the end of 2020, there were 264 million people over the age of 60 in mainland China, and that total is projected to surge to 400 million and account for more than 30% of China’s population by 2035, according to the National Health Commission.

    With fewer workers contributing to the public pension system, and with a growing number of seniors to be supported, China’s urban state pension fund – similar to the US social security fund – could be out of money by 2035, according to a 2019 projection by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (also similar to the social security).

    One problem that looks to finally be addressed is China’s decades-long adherence to mandatory retirement ages: 60 for men, 55 for female office workers and 50 for female blue-collar workers. The ages date back to a time when life expectancy at birth in China was nearly half of what it is today, and demographic and labor experts have long argued that they need to be raised, especially for women.

    In February, China’s State Council confirmed that it would gradually start pushing back its long-mandated retirement ages in the coming years, in line with Beijing’s plans to better accommodate the needs of the elderly and adjust to new realities stemming from the nation’s rapidly ageing population.

    President Xi Jinping reiterated that sentiment in his report delivered during the 20th party congress in October, when he said China would “gradually push back the legal retirement age”. Though few details of the plan have been released, the State Council said changes would “gradually” be made during the country’s current 14th five-year plan (2021-25).

    Meanwhile, China’s state media campaign has been promoting the value of working longer to achieve one’s career ambitions. And the government launched a special website in August to match elderly jobseekers with potential employers, with McDonald’s being among the first to recruit retirement-aged waitstaff in Beijing, with a posted salary of up to 3,500 yuan (US$488) per month for a full-time job with 40 hours a week.

    “Longer life expectancies, as well as fewer workers per older person, are increasing the financial burden of pension payments,” said Joseph Chamie, an international demographer and former director of the UN’s Population Division. “To offset those rising costs, as well as the declining labor forces, governments worldwide are considering raising their official age of retirement.”

    It’s not just China that is stealthily seeking to devalue retirement age: last year, Japan approved bills requiring companies to retain their workers until they are 70 years old, effectively raising the retirement age from 65 to 70. Germany plans to increase its state pension age from 65 to 67, but not until 2031. And in France, the official age of retirement is 62 – low among the 38 member countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. This year, the government attempted to incentivise people to continue working until 65, but the proposal naturally set off strikes.

    “China’s retirement ages for men and women are relatively low compared with many other countries,” Chamie said. “Delaying retirement encourages workers to remain in the labor force. I expect that more of China’s older population will be working in the next one or two decades. Due to age-related differences in education and skills across the Chinese population, I suspect that the majority of China’s elderly in the labor force will be working in low-level manufacturing and services sectors.”

    What a prospect: a generation of geriatric McDonalds line cooks and waiters.

    Remarkably, more than two-thirds of Chinese at retirement age are keen to re-enter the workforce, according to a report last month by Chinese recruitment platform 51jobs.com. It did not provide the survey size perhaps because it is as “real” as any “data” out of China.

    A total of 68% of older people said they had a strong desire to be employed after reaching retirement age, whether out of financial necessity or a desire to stay busy. The service and labor-intensive manufacturing sectors were the most popular areas for them to seek employment, especially among those lacking qualifications, the survey showed.

    Meanwhile, China’s reputation as the “factory of the world” was built largely on the backs of young migrant workers who left their rural hometowns for opportunities in bustling export hubs. However, over the last decade, the average age of migrant workers in China has increased steadily, as fewer young people enter the workforce and older workers with no pension protection are forced to continue working.

    China had 292 million migrant workers as of last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The average age was 41.7 years, compared with 34 years in 2008. More than a quarter of all migrant workers are now over the age of 50. And more than half are over 40, compared with just over a third in 2010.

    Kent Huang, a second-generation businessman in Guangdong province who produces hardware and furniture for export, said there are many workers aged over 40 in factories in southern China’s Pearl River Delta.

    “There are about 200 workers in my factory, and 80 per cent of them are in their mid-forties or early fifties, and it’s rare to see young manufacturing workers in their twenties,” Huang said.

    The older workers get paid about the same as their younger peers. All are hired for piecework, not on a monthly wage, he said. When the pandemic and China’s stringent curbs have crippled global demand, they have borne the brunt.

    “Due to the epidemic and globally sluggish demand, workers’ income is actually much lower than last year. Many factories nearby have had to lay off workers,” Huang said. “Order volume has plummeted to less than 40 per cent of last year. Those female workers in their late 40s will be among the first required to take compulsory leave with minimum wage, which is far from enough to cover their living cost in urban areas, let alone support their families in their hometowns.”

    Lu Zhou, an operations director at an original equipment manufacturer in Taicang in the eastern province of Jiangsu, said that for traditional manufacturing, such as shoes and garments, there can be an advantage in hiring older workers who are more likely to “cherish the job, unlike young people who jump ship very easily”.

    “But, of course, in those industries that are accelerating technological upgrades, older workers struggle to find a place. They generally flow into the service industry that does not require new skills, or into the low-end traditional manufacturing industry,” he said.

    Helen Wu, a founding partner of the Sunshine Immensity headhunting service in Beijing, said that it is rare to see people older than 50 selected for high-end positions: “In my 14-year career as a headhunter, chances of high-end positions have been few and far between for the elderly, unless they are well-connected or former senior executives,” Wu said.

    “While China is emphasizing ‘high-quality’ development and has reduced the importance attached to GDP growth, the job prospects for most elderly will not be very rosy in the next decade, given that competition in China’s job market is already so intense,” she said.

    Huang Wenzheng, a demographer who has written extensively on China’s birth rate and labour issues, said it was a harsh reality that many retirees must continue working to support their families.

    “However, the elderly shouldn’t be pushed to work just to increase the labour force. People live to enjoy their life, not to work for the sake of work,” Huang said and stressed the importance of boosting China’s falling fertility rate, which fell to just 1.15 last year from 2.6 in the late 1980s and remains well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed for a stable population.

    By comparison, the fertility rate in the United States is 1.6 births per woman, while in ageing Japan it is 1.3.

    “The government should increase welfare for workers and couples with children,” Huang said of Beijing. “The ageing problem can only be eased by improving couples’ willingness to give birth.”

    Of course, such willingness will only come if future parents are optimistic about the economic prospects both for them and their children. And that, unlike everything else in China, can not be faked which is why China is about to slip into the demographic spiral of doom.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 20:40

  • Zelensky Appeals For Tanks & Warplanes, Invokes FDR's "Absolute Victory", Before Enthusiastic Congress
    Zelensky Appeals For Tanks & Warplanes, Invokes FDR’s “Absolute Victory”, Before Enthusiastic Congress

    Summary: Zelensky spoke for a little over 30 minutes and in English, at times invoking key US historical moments from the Battle of Saratoga to the Battle of the Bulge (and comparing the courage of Ukrainian soldiers), after he was greeted as a ‘hero’ in a minutes-long standing ovation. He asserted that Ukraine is winning “against all odds”. He was throughout frequently interrupted by standing ovations from a partially filled Congress, which was missing a lot of Republicans, in part given a number of lawmakers had already traveled home for the holidays ahead of the unexpected in-person visit, and facing incoming severe weather.

    Zelensky peppered the speech with positive and optimistic statements like “Ukraine holds its lines and will never surrender,” and “but our defense forces stand” – especially offering the latest example of Bakhmut, in the Donbas. As expected, a major theme was the need for continued US support, for which he thanked the Biden administration, Congress, and the American people.

    “The occupiers have an advantage in artillery and much more heavy equipment like tanks and airplanes,” he began a section of the address in which he appealed for continued aid. “Your support is crucial… to get to the turning point on the battlefield.”

    “We have artillery, is it enough? Not really.” He explained that Ukraine needs enough ammo and weapons to be able to completely expel Russian forces from Ukrainian territory. He also spoke of the misery that Russian-operated Iranian drones are unleashing on the civilian population in attacking energy infrastructure. “I would like to thank you for the financial packages,” he said, and followed with: “Your money is not charity” but an investment in “global security” that Ukraine will “handle in the most responsible way.”

    Among the more interesting statements was the moment he indirectly pressed for the US to provide tanks and warplanes. While he stressed that Ukraine has never asked American troops to fight on Ukraine’s behalf on its soil, he asserted: “I can assure you that Ukrainian soldiers can perfectly operate American tanks and planes themselves.” 

    On the potential for a negotiated peace, he called attention of his prior “10-point plan” which he said should be implemented (and which Russia previously firmly rejected), and which he said Biden approved of during the Wednesday meeting at the White House.

    Zelensky additionally called on Congress to join Ukraine in bringing every Russian “criminal” to justice. “Let the terrorist state” be held accountable, he said. He emphasized millions of Ukrainians will have no heating or water as they celebrate Christmas. 

    “Only victory!” he stressed near the end of the speech, and also quoted from Franklin D. Roosevelt’s famous “Day of Infamy” speech. “The American people in their righteous might will win through to absolute victory,” Zelensky said, and followed by pledging that Ukraine too will achieve “absolute victory.” 

    Meanwhile in Moscow…

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    * * *

    Update (1920): Zelensky is expected to make an “appeal to the American people” – as he previewed earlier – at 1940ET. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in welcoming him about an hour ago to the Capitol building compared the Ukrainian leader to Winston Churchill. Watch live:

    Throughout the afternoon, CNN’s live coverage has been talking a lot about the below tweet by Donald Trump Jr…

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    * * *

    Summary: President Biden in his written remarks read aloud turned to Zelensky to assure “you haven’t stood alone” and that the United States “will stand with you”. He said Putin is escalating by targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including “targeting orphanages and schools.” A key theme throughout the remarks is the US belief that Putin will “fail” and that Ukraine will have continued “success” on the battlefield with US help.

    Biden further pointed out it’s been 300 days since Putin launched an “unprovoked, unjustified all-out assault” on Ukraine, part of the “imperial appetites of autocrats”. Interestingly, Biden affirmed that even before the invasion the US was helping Ukraine to prepare to defend itself. 

    Biden hailed that the Ukrainian military has “won” in the battles for Kyiv, Kherson and Kharkiv. Biden additionally claimed Zelensky is “open” to pursuing a just peace while Putin is not. Further, continued unreserved support was pledged, with no hint of peace talks or a ceasefire…

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    “I look forward to signing the omnibus bill soon which includes $45 billion for Ukraine,” Biden said, while also unveiling 1.8 billion of security assistance that includes both direct transfers as well as contracts for future ammo supplies. In total, it will constitute “$2.2 billion in new support,” Biden said. The package will include a patriot missile battery, Biden said, as previewed. While emphasizing that Patriot systems will be a “critical asset” for Ukraine, he admitted that training “may take some time”. Biden as expected also stressed the “defensive” nature of the Patriot system.

    Biden further in the Q&A said that Putin had “strengthened NATO” with the decision to invade.

    AFP

    Zelensky for his part, said he’s “thankful” for all that the American people have done, and that this is currently a “historic” visit. He said he’s especially “grateful” to President Biden for his strong stance in support of Ukraine. Every dollar of this investment is toward “strengthening global security,” Zelensky said. He repeatedly referred to “terrorist” Russia and its decision to invade, based on “tyranny”. He pledged that ultimately Ukraine will “win” – and that “we will win together”. 

    Biden pledged during the press conference that US support will remain “for as long as it takes”. 

    * * *

    Update (1425ET): Watch live as President Biden kicks off a joint press conference with Zelensky.

    * * *

    Update(1340ET): Zelensky has arrived on a large Air Force jet. He’s expected to soon meet Biden at the White House, after which there will be a joint presser at 1630ET.

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    * * *

    Update(10:45ET): Zelensky is reportedly arriving to Washington D.C. aboard a US Air Force plane, according to US officials cited in CNN, after taking a high risk train ride into Poland. White House national security communications coordinator John Kirby said of the impending visit with President Biden, “The President really believes that as we approach winter, as we enter … a new phase in this war, of Mr. Putin’s aggression, that this is a good time for the two leaders to sit down face to face and talk.” But this is how Reuters somewhat cynically previewed the visit: 

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy headed to Washington on Wednesday to meet President Joe Biden, address Congress and seek “weapons, weapons and more weapons” in his first overseas trip since Russia invaded Ukraine 300 days ago.

    Surprisingly, the Associated Press additionally highlighted the latest video address by Zelensky, who yesterday while visiting a frontline fighting area in Bakhmut, said the following at a moment Congress is set to to approve $45 billion more in aid for Ukraine in the proposed massive omnibus package:

    “We will pass it on from the boys to the Congress, to the president of the United States. We are grateful for their support, but it is not enough. It is a hint — it is not enough,” Zelensky said.

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    The US is about to reach $100 billion in total aid committed to Ukraine, and as Glenn Greenwald points out, this far surpasses the total current Russian military budget…

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    And yet Zelensky and the constant refrain of top Ukrainian officials has been essentially that despite the blank check approach of the Biden administration, it is never enough. Apparently even the mainstream media is beginning to recognize this.

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    However, over at CNN Zelensky is being compared to Winston Churchill…

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    * * *

    With Ukraine’s Zelensky reportedly in the air en route to Washington where he’s is to deliver a “very special” in-person speech to US lawmakers, it’s being widely reported Wednesday morning that President Biden is expected to announce the US will deliver the Patriot missile defense system, along with another $2 billion in defense aid.

    An admin official quoted in Axios said Zelensky’s visit to Washington is expected to last just “a few short hours,” and marks the first known trip the Ukrainian leader has taken outside the country since the war began. He’s expected to hold an “in-depth, strategic discussion” with Biden, and the Congressional address is set for 7:30pm EST.

    During Zelensky’s March virtual address to Congress, via CNN.

    The unnamed official further said the White House wants to put on a “big show of bipartisan support for Zelensky” in hopes of shoring up political “momentum” for continued assistance to Kiev, which is also coming in the form of the enormous omnibus spending package which includes $45 billion in military, economic, and other foreign aid to Ukraine.

    White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement that the Ukrainian president’s visit will be received with “strong, bipartisan support for Ukraine.”

    She said “The visit will underscore the United States’ steadfast commitment to supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes, including through the provision of economic, humanitarian, and military assistance.”

    Zelensky in the meantime tweeted confirmation while en route…

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    Meanwhile, some initial reaction coming out of Moscow…

    • PUTIN: INTERBALLISTIC MISSILES SARMAT WILL BE DEPLOYED FOR COMBAT DUTY IN NEAREST FUTURE
    • RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER SHOIGU: WE ARE READY FOR TALKS
    • RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER SHOIGU: JOINT FORCES OF WEST ARE FIGHTING RUSSIA IN UKRAINE
    • WEST TRIES TO OVERLOOK NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL, INCLUDING OVER ZAPORIZHZHIA NUCLEAR POWER STATION
    • WEST TRIES TO DRAG ON THE FIGHTING IN UKRAINE
    • RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER SHOIGU: WE ARE FIGHTING TO SAVE PEOPLE IN UKRAINE FROM GENOCIDE AND TERROR
    • MILITARY POTENTIAL OF UKRAINE IS BEING DESTROYED

    It will be interesting to see whether Zelensky’s appearance before Congress is greeted with the same level of enthusiasm from all corners of the GOP.

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    developing…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 20:40

  • ABC's Martha Raddatz Under Fire Over Abbott Interview
    ABC’s Martha Raddatz Under Fire Over Abbott Interview

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    There is an interesting controversy this week after ABC’s Martha Raddatz took Texas GOP Governor Greg Abbott to task for public comments about the open Southern border as fueling the crisis. Raddatz is being criticized for her claim that President Joe Biden has never encouraged migrants to come over the border — a statement that many objected to as demonstrably false. However, I am more interested in a different aspect of her remarks: the objection to Abbott’s language. It is the type of objection that one finds from a system of state media where the narrative is supposed to be replicated and uniform.

    Abbott has criticized the Biden administration’s “open-border policies” and Raddatz immediately objected to that language in her interview:

    You talk about the border wall, you talk about open borders, I don’t think I’ve ever heard President Biden say, ‘We have an open border, come on over.” But people I have heard say it are you, are former President Trump, Ron DeSantis. That message reverberates in Mexico and beyond. So, they do get the message that it is an open border.”

    Critics immediately pointed out past Biden comments criticized as seemingly encouraging such border crossers: 

    “They deserve to be heard. That’s who we are. We’re a nation that says, ‘If you want to flee, and you’re fleeing oppression, you should come.’”

    They also point out that Raddatz herself was told by one border crosser that he “basically” made the trip because Biden was elected.

    However, it was the objection to the use of divergent language that was equally striking. ABC and other mainstream media sites have been accused of echoing the narrative of the Biden Administration and largely ignoring (until recently) the crisis at the southern border. Those who raise the issue have been denounced as exaggerating or inventing a crisis.

    Raddatz’s interview is reminiscent of the interview by Leslie Stahl on CBS with former President Donald Trump where she shutdown Trump referring to the spying on this campaign by declaring that there is no evidence of such spying. There was already ample evidence of such spying, but Stahl simply told viewers that it was untrue.

    The Raddatz interview raises again the danger of a de facto state media where media echoes the position of the government by choice rather than coercion. Her objection was that Abbott and others keep referring to a crisis when the Administration and mainstream media do not use such terms. As a journalist, she is objecting to a public official in a border state calling out a crisis as thousands pour over his border on a daily basis.

    Raddatz’s objection was notably virtually identical to the talking point put out by the White House.

    White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has declared “It would be wrong to think the border is open. It is not open.” She added “anyone who suggests otherwise is simply doing the work of these smugglers who, again, are spreading misinformation which is very dangerous.”

    It is unclear what Raddatz is suggesting. Was the governor of Texas supposed to stop responding to the outcry of border cities to the massive influx? Was he supposed to insist that the border is not open as videos show hundreds just walking over the border?

    Raddatz is an accomplished journalist and I have great respect for her career. We can all craft questions or comments poorly. However, the concern is that this interview occurred in the context of ABC and other networks steadfastly ignoring the growing crisis at the border.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 20:20

  • Florida's Citrus Crop In Danger As "Arctic Front Screams" Across Deep South
    Florida’s Citrus Crop In Danger As “Arctic Front Screams” Across Deep South

    Widespread cold air is already pouring into the Plains and Deep South. This cold will last through Christmas weekend into early next week and could threaten citrus groves across Florida. 

    America’s top orange juice maker is already battling a record decline in crop this season because of citrus greening, a devastating crop disease, and damage sustained by Hurricane Ian and Tropical Storm Nicole earlier this year. Now a cold blast could damage crops even more. 

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    Bloomberg quoted Paul Markert, a meteorologist with Maxar Technologies Inc., who said South Florida could see temperatures as low as 31 degrees Fahrenheit on Friday.

    World Weather Inc.’s Drew Lerner said computer models are evolving, and temperatures could dip even lower. He said four hours or more of sub-28 degrees could damage citrus crops. He added the cold shot could cause irreversible damage to the state’s cane harvest, much of which still needs to be harvested. 

    Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore tweeted, “You can see the Arctic front scream through the southeast on the 23rd and the COLD just lock in for days afterward. Protect your pipes even into Florida. Yes those are teens in the panhandle!”

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    The decimation of Florida’s citrus crop has caused shortages for beverage makers, including Minute Maid owner Coca-Cola Co. and PAI Partners, which owns Tropicana. This means orange prices at the supermarket will continue to rise. Orange juice futures are near record highs. 

    With Disease, hurricanes, and now cold, Florida’s citrus industry is going through a historic beatdown by Mother Nature. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 20:00

  • "I Was Shocked": Reno Mayor Sues Private Investigator After Discovering Tracking Device Installed On Vehicle
    “I Was Shocked”: Reno Mayor Sues Private Investigator After Discovering Tracking Device Installed On Vehicle

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The mayor of Reno, Nevada, has filed a lawsuit against a private investigator and his company, alleging that he installed a tracking device on her car without her knowledge or consent, leaving her in constant fear.

    Reno Mayor Hillary Schieve speaks during the U.S. Conference of Mayors 90th Annual Meeting at the Peppermill Resort Hotel in Reno, Nev. on June 3, 2022. (Tom R. Smedes/AP Photo/)

    Hillary Schieve, an independent, filed the lawsuit (pdf) against private investigator David McNeely and 5 Alpha Industries in Washoe County’s Second Judicial District Court on Dec. 15.

    The complaint alleges that McNeely, at the request of an “unidentified third party,” trespassed upon Schieve’s private property and “surreptitiously installed a sophisticated GPS tracking device on the personal vehicle of Schieve, monitoring her every movement.”

    According to the complaint, the tracking device received minute-by-minute updates of her location, which lawyers for Schieve say was allegedly used to photograph and surveil Schieve, in violation of her privacy.

    This, her lawyers say, caused her significant fear and distress.

    “By tracking her, Defendants exposed Schieve to an unjustified and unwarranted risk of harassment, stalking, and bodily harm,” the lawsuit states.

    Lawyers for Schieve, who was re-elected to a third term as Reno’s mayor last month, said she discovered the device by chance after a mechanic noticed it while he was working on her car.

    “Upon information and belief, Defendants not only installed GPS tracking devices on Schieve’s vehicle but also installed similar tracking devices on the vehicles of multiple other prominent community members,” the lawsuit states, without providing further evidence.

    The lawsuit is seeking at least $15,000 in damages.

    “Defendants intended to cause harm to Plaintiff and knew or recklessly disregarded the reasonable likelihood that the dissemination of Plaintiff’s location could lead to death, bodily injury, harassment, stalking, financial loss, or a substantial life disruption,” the lawsuit states.

    Apple’s AirTag. (Stock photo/Onur Binary/Unsplash)

    ‘I Honestly Felt Sick to My Stomach’

    Schieve, via her mechanic, discovered the device on her vehicle two weeks before the latest election was held, according to The Nevada Independent.

    She then took the device to local police, who identified McNeely as the individual who had purchased the tracker.

    “I was shocked. I honestly felt sick to my stomach,” Schieve, who filed the lawsuit as a private citizen, told the publication. “I would never want this to happen to a family member, a young girl. It’s an invasion of privacy. It’s stalking. It’s just super alarming.”

    In a statement released after the complaint was filed on Thursday, lead attorney Adam Hosmer-Henner with McDonald Carano told the publication that his office would continue to aggressively search for the individual or individuals who hired the private investigator.

    He added that the lawsuit is based on what he called an “outrageous” invasion of privacy.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 19:40

  • Media Downplays Gun-Carrying "Good Samaritan" Who Stopped Mass Shooting At Amazon Facility
    Media Downplays Gun-Carrying “Good Samaritan” Who Stopped Mass Shooting At Amazon Facility

    Liberal mainstream media outlets have downplayed, yet again, another story about a good guy with a gun preventing a mass shooting. 

    That’s precisely what happened last Wednesday when a man was hailed as a “good Samaritan” by police after he stopped an active shooter at an Amazon Flex Warehouse in Chandler, Arizona, according to FOX 10 Phoenix. 

    Bryton Bobbitt, a contracted Amazon worker, told reporters he was preparing for his delivery route when he heard gunfire: 

    “All of a sudden, just hear pop, pop, pop. [I] start looking around, like where did that come from? A few of our other workers started running.

    “I was already in my work van, I put it in gear and tried to find a safe place and got out of here.”

    Meanwhile, a second Amazon worker, who was armed, saw the shooter, 29-year-old Jacob Murphy, attempt to enter the building before shooting an employee. The shooter was a non-employee searching for a person at the facility over “jealousy issues” regarding his girlfriend. 

    That’s when the armed Amazon worker went into action and fired at Murphy, wounding him. The shooter instantly dropped to the ground, likely preventing further bloodshed. Then the armed Amazon worker rushed over to the individual who the suspect shot until first responders arrived on the scene. 

    “Murphy was pronounced deceased due to a self-inflicted gunshot wound and gunfire,” Sgt. Jason McClimans told reporters. 

    Police said the victim who Murphy first shot “is still recovering and will survive.” Officials also noted that the employee who shot the suspect cooperated with the investigation and was not considered an additional suspect, adding that the person was a “good Samaritan.” 

    Gun Owners of America commented on the story:

    “Thankfully, Arizona is a Constitutional Carry state, and as a result, this Good Samaritan was ready and able to defend himself and others at a moment’s notice in a dangerous situation. GOA will continuously work to ensure that everyone is fully able to exercise their God-given right to self-defense.”  

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The left-leaning media has repeatedly emphasized good guys with guns won’t make society safer. Well, that’s not the case here. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 19:20

  • The Global Economy Is Finally Realizing That Fossil Fuels Are Finite
    The Global Economy Is Finally Realizing That Fossil Fuels Are Finite

    Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

    The problem is hitting limits in the extraction of fossil fuels

    We know that historically, many economies around the world have collapsed. We also know that there is a physics reason why this happens. Growing economies require a growing supply of energy to keep up with a growing population. At some point, the energy supply and other resource needs cannot grow rapidly enough to keep up with population growth. When this happens, economies tend to collapse.

    In their book Secular Cycles, researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov found that economies tend go through four distinct phases in each cycle, with each stage lasting for quite a few years:

    1. Growth

    2. Stagflation

    3. Crisis

    4. Inter-cycle

    Based on my own analysis, the world economy was in the Growth Stage for much of the time between the Industrial Revolution and 1973. In late 1973, oil prices spiked, and the world was put on notice that the energy supply could not continue rising as rapidly as in the past. Between 1973 and 2018, the world economy was in the Stagflation Stage. Based on current data, the world economy seems to have entered the Crisis Stage about 2018. This is the reason for saying that headwinds are beginning to hold the economy back in the title of this article .

    When the Crisis Stage occurs, there are fewer goods and services per capita to go around, so some participants in the world economy must come out behind. Conflict of all kinds becomes more likely. Political leaders, if they happen to discover the predicament the world economy is in, have little interest in making the predicament known to voters, since doing so would likely lead them to lose the next election.

    Instead, the way the physics-based self-organizing economic system works is that alternative narratives that frame the situation in a less frightening way gain popularity. Political leaders may not even be aware of how dependent today’s economy is on fossil fuels. Researchers may not be aware that their “scientific” models are misleading because they look at too small a portion of the overall system and make unwarranted assumptions.

    In this post, I show evidence that the economy is reaching energy limits. In the last section, I explain how my view differs from the standard narrative, which says that there is almost an unlimited amount of fossil fuels available to burn, if we choose to utilize these fossil fuels. According to this view, humans can prevent climate change by voluntarily moving away from fossil fuels.

    The standard narrative proposes a reasonable plan for citizens of parts of the world without adequate fossil fuels (cut back on buying fossil fuels), but without telling citizens what the real problem is. The standard narrative also gives the impression that there is a near-term clean energy alternative. In my opinion, this is wishful thinking for the reasons I describe in Sections [6] and [7]. Section [2] also sheds light on the reasonableness of moving to renewable energy.

    [1] The world has been warned, at least twice, that collapse might occur about now.

    Back in the 1950s, several physicists, including M. King Hubbert, became interested in the limits that the world was up against. The military became interested in the problem, as well. In 1957, Admiral Hyman Rickover of the US Navy gave a very insightful speech. One thing Admiral Rickover said was, “With high energy consumption goes a high standard of living.” Another thing he said was, “A reduction of per capita energy consumption has always in the past led to a decline in civilization and a reversion to a more primitive way of life.”

    Regarding the future, he said,

    For it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost are likely to run out at some time between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account. 

    The issue Admiral Rickover is pointing out is that as extraction costs rise, fossil fuels become increasingly unaffordable. If citizens cannot afford food, housing, and other basic goods made with high-cost fossil fuels, those fossil fuels will be left in the ground. If politicians try to pass the high cost of extraction on to consumers, it will cause inflation. Citizens will become unhappy with politicians and will vote them out of office. This is basically our problem today.

    A second analysis that pointed to the current time frame for the world hitting fossil fuel limits is given in the 1972 book, The Limits To Growth by Donella Meadows and others. This analysis used computer modeling to look at several alternative future scenarios, considering resources available and population trends. The base scenario showed resource limits in general hitting sometime around 2020. The economy would collapse over a period of years after resource limits were hit.

    [2] The Industrial Revolution in England is an example of how an economy changes for the better when fossil fuel energy is added.

    Figure 1 shows a chart E. A. Wrigley shows in his book, Energy and the English Industrial Revolution:

    Figure 1. Annual energy consumption per head (megajoules) in England and Wales 1561-70 to 1850-9 and in Italy 1861-70. Figure by Wrigley

    Wrigley observes that when coal was added to the economy, it was possible to make far more metal tools than had been made in the past. With the use of metal tools instead of wood tools, farmers could be three times as productive. Thus, there didn’t need to be as many farmers, freeing some farmers for other occupations. Also, roads to coal mines were paved, in an era when few roads were paved. These paved roads were beneficial to other businesses and to the economy as a whole.

    Another reason for coal to be of interest was because of increased deforestation near cities, as the population grew. This deforestation led to a need to transport firewood over long distances. Coal was more compact, and so easier to transport. Furthermore, the use of coal prevented having to cut down as many trees, helping the environment.

    Figure 1 shows that energy from wind and water were only a tiny part of the economy, both before and after coal was added. They did not directly provide heat energy, which was a significant share of what the economy needed at that time.

    [3] The period between the end of World War II and 1973 was another period when energy consumption per capita was rising rapidly. We might say the economy then had an “energy tailwind.”

    Figure 2 shows that US energy consumption per capita was rising rapidly in the 1949 to 1973 period. Growing oil, coal and natural gas consumption all contributed to the overall rise in fossil fuel use.

    Figure 2. Energy consumption by type of energy, on a per capita basis. Energy amounts as provided by US EIA data. Population based on 2022 United Nations population estimates by country.

    In fact, BP data (only available from 1965 onward) shows energy consumption per capita rising for most parts of the world between 1965 and 1973. During this period, oil, coal and natural gas consumption per capita were all rising.

    Figure 3. Energy consumption per capita from 1965 to 1973 for selected parts of the world based on BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    A major thing that pushed oil consumption along was its low price (Figure 4). According to BP data, the inflation-adjusted price was only $11.99 per barrel in 1970. In 1971, it averaged $14.30 per barrel. The comparable price today is about $79 per barrel.

    Figure 4. World oil production and Brent equivalent price, adjusted for inflation to 2021, based on BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    The average price for 1973 rose to the equivalent of $19.73 per barrel, which is still incredibly low relative to today’s prices. It is an annual average price, reflecting a low price at the beginning of the year and a much higher price toward the end of the year.

    There were multiple issues behind the rise in oil prices, starting at the end of 1973. Part of the problem was the fact that US oil production began to fall in 1971, necessitating the use of more imported oil, year after year. Another issue was that world oil production could not keep up with the high demand, given the low price that oil was selling for. The Office of the Historian of the US writes the following:

    By 1973, OPEC had demanded that foreign oil corporations increase prices and cede greater shares of revenue to their local subsidiaries. In April, the Nixon administration announced a new energy strategy to boost domestic production to reduce U.S. vulnerability to oil imports and ease the strain of nationwide fuel shortages. That vulnerability would become overtly clear in the fall of that year.

    Without higher oil prices, it would be hard for local producers to make the investments needed to ramp up production. Also, taxes for governments in the areas where the oil was produced were falling too low, given the low prices that oil was selling for on the international market. Indirectly because of these problems, but supposedly also because of support for Israel by certain countries in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the Arab members of OPEC initiated an oil embargo. This embargo cut off exports to the US, Netherlands, Portugal, and South Africa from November 1973 until March 1974. It was at that time that world oil prices rose to a much higher level, and oil consumption per capita began to fall.

    One thing that is striking about the period between World War II and 1973 is the huge advances in wages made by both the bottom 90% and the top 10% (Figure 5).

    Figure 5. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data, published in Forbes.

    Between 1948 and 1968, inflation-adjusted income of both the bottom 90% and the top 10% increased by roughly 80%. This meant that many people in the bottom 90% could afford to buy cars and their own homes for the first time. Even in the period between 1968 and 1982, inflation-adjusted incomes kept up with inflation, something that low-income earners today have difficulty with. It was not until after about 1982 that wage disparity started to increase.

    Most people remember the 1950s and 1960s as a favorable period for ordinary workers. Because of the higher wages of ordinary citizens and growing US manufacturing capabilities, the number of cars registered in the US rose from 25.8 million in 1945 to 75.3 million in 1965. The US initiated the 41,000 mile Interstate Highway System in 1956, so that auto owners would have multilane, limited access roads to travel on.

    Electricity was sold in a conservative way, called the Utility Pricing System, which would hopefully assure that the whole system would be properly maintained. Utilities were typically owners of electricity generation units, plus all other local infrastructure, including transmission lines. Each utility would compute a total required rate for all its needs, including enough funds to install new generating capacity, provide fuel, and install and maintain transmission lines. A government regulator would approve the rates, but there was no real competition.

    [4] In the period between 1973 and 2018, many changes were to increase energy efficiency and to lower the perceived cost to users. Unfortunately, some of these changes, when taken to the extremes they were taken to later in the period, tended to make the economy brittle and thus more subject to collapse.

    Up until 1973, oil was being put to uses for which substitution could easily be made. One of these was electricity generation; another was home heating. An easy change in electricity generation was to build new generating facilities using an alternate fuel (coal, natural gas, or nuclear). Home heating could often be changed to natural gas or electricity.

    Also, Japan already had automobiles that were smaller and more fuel efficient than American automobiles. These could be substituted for some of the large cars produced in the US.

    Especially with the Reagan and Thatcher administrations starting shortly after 1980, there was more interest in cutting costs in electricity generation. “Competitive rating” instead of utility rating became popular in places where electricity prices were high. Utilities were broken up, and the various parts were encouraged to compete.

    Of course, competitive rating, when taken to its extreme, can lead to the neglect of infrastructure. It was recently reported that California’s utility company, Pacific Gas and Electric, now finds that it must raise $50 billion for wildfire prevention, after years of neglecting maintenance on the long distance transmission lines used for hydroelectric generation and other long distance transmission. Now it needs to raise money to bury many of these lines underground.

    It has long been known that added complexity can be helpful in working around problems of inadequate energy supply. Complexity involves many things including using more advanced technology and international trade. It involves bigger organizations to take advantage of economies of scale. It tends to require higher education for at least some of its workers.

    One major disadvantage of growing complexity is the increasing wage disparity it tends to produce. Wages for less educated workers often fall quite low. Work in whole industries may disappear overseas, leaving workers to start over, in new lines of work, at lower pay scales.

    Unfortunately, having many workers at low wages tends to push an economy toward collapse. The big issue is that these workers cannot afford goods like cars and new homes. Their lack of purchasing power tends to hold down commodity prices, such as the price of fossil fuels. Prices don’t rise high enough to justify new investment to raise production, so production slows down and eventually stops.

    Another approach that gained popularity starting about 1981 was the increased use of debt and more exotic financial approaches. Interest rates were very high in 1981. Central banks could make monthly payments for goods such as homes and cars more affordable by lowering interest rates. This approach works for a while, but it reaches limits when interest rates fall too low relative to inflation rates. Furthermore, if an economy slows down, a major increase in debt defaults becomes likely, as became clear in 2008. With the high level of debt in the world economy today, the default problem could become even worse in 2023 or 2024 than it was in 2008, if the economy slows again.

    [5] Since 2015, oil and natural gas investments have remained at low levels because oil prices have not been high enough to justify drilling in the remaining places.

    Figure 6. US world oil prices, adjusted to 2021 US$, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    In my opinion, oil companies really need quite high oil prices, probably $120 per barrel or higher, on a consistent basis, to justify drilling in sufficient new locations to ramp up oil production. Since 2014, prices have generally remained far below that level. There was a major drop in oil prices in 2014 and 2015. In response to the lower oil prices, oil and gas companies cut back on investment in “Exploration and Production” (E&P). (Figure 7)

    Figure 7. Global Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Investments in chart by Rystad Energy.

    After a drop in E&P investments, oil production does not drop immediately. Instead, 2018 was the single highest year of oil production. Production looks likely to drop further because of the continued lack of investment (Figure 8).

    Figure 8. Figure 1 from my most recent post. It shows world primary energy consumption per capita based on BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    [6] If we look across the major types of energy supply, we discover that “Wind and Solar” is the only category rising significantly faster than world population. Others tend to be flat or falling, on a per capita basis.

    Figure 9. Energy per capita worldwide, for selected types of energy, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    In Figure 9, the star performer is the category “Wind + Solar.” The main attraction of wind and solar today is the subsidies they get, and the mandates that require utilities to move away from fossil fuels. Unfortunately, wind and solar really aren’t terribly helpful as far as I can see, except from the point of view of the benefit of the subsidies they provide.

    One of the problems with intermittent wind and solar is that they tend to drive nuclear electricity providers out of business because of the favorable rates they receive when wind and solar are allowed to go first, in competitive rating schemes. With this arrangement, the wholesale rates that nuclear providers receive often fall to negative amounts. Nuclear providers cannot close down for short periods with negative rates, so they tend to need subsidies to remain open. Figure 9 shows that the supply of nuclear electricity has been dropping since at least 2001. In fact, of all the energy types shown on Figure 9, nuclear’s production (relative to population) is dropping fastest.

    In my opinion, our primary energy concern should be food production and transport. Diesel, made from oil, is the major fuel for agriculture. It will be decades before farming machinery and transport of food can be changed over to electricity, assuming this can be done at all. Until this happens, electricity’s role in getting food to the shelves of grocery stores will be limited.

    Solar energy comes primarily in the summer but, unfortunately, in many places, the big need for heat energy is in the winter. People in Europe, with their many wind turbines and solar panels, are worried about possibly freezing in the dark this winter if natural gas supplies prove inadequate. We don’t have batteries for storing solar or wind energy for months on end, so they cannot be counted on for winter heat.

    When homeowners put solar panels on their roofs, the electricity they sell to the utility is often “net metered” (credited with the full retail value of electricity that this home would pay). This is a huge subsidy to the owners of the solar panels because the value of the intermittent electricity to the utility is far less than this, probably closer to the cost of the natural gas or other fuel saved.

    To make up for the loss of revenue caused by the overly generous compensation to solar panel owners, the utility is forced to raise rates for those without solar panels. Studies show that homeowners with solar panels tend to be wealthier than the renters and others who do not have the opportunity to add these subsidized solar panels. Thus, this is an example of a benefit for rich homeowners being paid for by less wealthy buyers of electricity.

    I would also argue that the BP data I used to produce Figure 9 tends to give an overly optimistic view of the value of wind and solar. The approach used indirectly assumes that they fully replace the entire system of dispatchable electricity used today, rather than providing only intermittent electricity. The less generous approach (giving a little less than half as much credit) is used by the International Energy Association and by many researchers.

    Furthermore, solar panels tend to pollute ground water when they are disposed of, so they are not very clean. Wind turbines are noisy, take up farmland, and kill bats and birds, so they have serious drawbacks as well.

    Wind and solar are made and transported using fossil fuels. They cannot last any longer than today’s fossil fuel industry. In fact, roads and transmission lines require fossil fuels to continue. The whole system is likely to go down at approximately the same time.

    It seems to me that the main reason why we hear so much about intermittent wind and solar is because there needs to be a hopeful narrative for politicians to provide to voters, and for educators to provide to students. Otherwise, the situation shown on Figure 9 looks grim. The fact that fossil fuel prices have been spiking in 2022 and regulators are trying to get these prices back down again is testimony to the fact that we are running short of cheap-to-produce fossil fuel energy.

    [7] The incorrect narrative provided by mainstream media (MSM) is that climate change is our worst problem. To lessen this problem, citizens need to move quickly away from fossil fuels and transition to renewables. The real narrative is that we are running short of fossil fuels that can be profitably extracted, and renewables are not adequate substitutes. However, this narrative is too worrisome for most people to handle.

    I expect most readers will say, your view can’t be right. We don’t read this story in the news. All we hear about is climate change and the need to reduce fossil fuel usage to prevent climate change.

    In many ways, the narrative presented by MSM is less frightening to the public than a narrative in which fuels are already being stretched too thin. The MSM narrative sounds like a situation that we can perhaps live with and work around. It sounds like careers that people study for today will be useful in the future. It also sounds like homes, cars and factories built today will be useful in the future.

    One major difference in the MSM view, relative to my view, is with respect to the amounts of fossil fuels that can be extracted. The standard narrative says we will extract all the fossil fuels that we have the technology to extract unless we make a concerted effort not to extract these fuels. For this to happen, demand (a favorite word of economists) must keep rising to keep prices high enough for businesses to want to continue extraction from fields plagued by depletion.

    History shows that when an economy approaches limits, what tends to happen is that demand tends to fall too low. This happens because the physics of the way the economy works: Wage and wealth disparities tend to spike as energy resources are increasingly stretched thin. In fact, the great wealth of the top 1%, relative to that of the remaining 99%, is a major problem in the world today. When increasing wage and wealth disparity occurs, a growing number of poor workers find themselves with inadequate wages to buy food, homes, cars and other goods made with commodities, including oil.

    There are so many of these poor workers that their lack of demand tends to bring down commodity prices without government intervention. If these low wages are not sufficient to hold down commodity prices, politicians will raise interest rates to try to get commodity prices down, so they can be re-elected. It is low fossil fuel prices that will drive fossil fuel providers out of business.

    Of course, another part of the MSM narrative is the view that renewables can save the system. I explained in Section [6] why this cannot be the case for wind and solar. I didn’t say much about hydroelectricity, but it is already built out in most of the developed world. Electricity from hydroelectric plants tends to be intermittent, with the greatest supply coming in the spring, when snow melts. Like wind and solar, hydroelectric generation plants are built and repaired using fossil fuels. These facilities, and their transmission lines, will last only until parts break that cannot be repaired.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 19:00

  • After Loosening COVID Restrictions, China Mandates Hospitals To Take Regular Virus Samples To Monitor Mutations
    After Loosening COVID Restrictions, China Mandates Hospitals To Take Regular Virus Samples To Monitor Mutations

    All of a sudden China seems content in trying to live with Covid and re-opening the country…it’s funny what happens when your citizens have had enough and decide they are no longer going to put up with it. The softer stance on the virus is coming just weeks after protests rocked major cities in China. 

    As part of China’s “new” policy on how it is dealing with the virus, it is setting up “a nationwide network of hospitals to monitor mutations of the virus”, according to a new report from the South China Morning Post. 

    As the SCMP notes: “Mass PCR testing was cancelled in early December and negative test results are no longer required to return to work or enter public places, including hospitals. There is no encouragement for people to get tested.”

    Now, the country is bracing for new variants of the virus as a result of “waves” of the infection hitting the country in a short period of time, the report says. 

    The Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has now assigned one hospital in each city (with three cities in each province) responsible for collecting “samples from 15 patients in the outpatients and emergency room, 10 from patients with severe illnesses, and all fatalities.”

    Xu Wenbo, director of the China CDC’s National Institute for Viral Disease Control said this week: “This will allow us to monitor in real time the dynamics of the transmission of Omicron in China and the proportion of its various sub-lineages and new strains with potentially altered biological characteristics, including their clinical manifestations, transmissibility and pathogenicity.”

    “This will provide a scientific basis for the development of vaccines and the evaluation of diagnostic tools, including PCR and antigen tests,” he continued. More than 130 Omicron sub-lineages had been detected in China in the past three months, he said. He also predicts that new subvariants will continue to spread and mutations will continue. 

    “As long as it circulates in the crowd, when it replicates, it will mutate,” he concluded.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 18:40

  • The Sam Bankman-Fried Collapse Is A Paradoxical Sign Of Progress
    The Sam Bankman-Fried Collapse Is A Paradoxical Sign Of Progress

    Authored by John Tammy via RealClear Wire,

    On June 6, 2021 I published a column titled “We’ll Know Crypto Is For Real When Its Coins Start Collapsing.” More than most want to admit or realize, failure is growth. A “market” for crypto money defined by the various “currencies” going up, up, and up is less information pregnant. It’s real, but upward speculation is a signal of many unknowns. A market defined by collapse signals reason and realization entering prices. Information is progress.

    As I point out at the beginning and end of my new book, The Money Confusion, what was true in June of 2021 is true today. Carnage is the life of the crypto industry. It signals long-term staying power as investors get serious about putting the bad out to pasture in favor of the good. History supports this truth, at which point it’s useful to digress, or move sideways.

    In particular, it’s useful to address what has so many up in arms: the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s former blue chip crypto concept, FTX. There’s a view that the latter is a signal of something amiss, and worse, artificial about the whole private money concept. FTX’s decline has birthed endless skepticism.

    Take the Wall Street Journal’s Joseph Sternberg. Sternberg writes that “Easy money fuels speculative manias as surely as night follows day.” But that’s not true. If true, then it would certainly be true that Japan’s economy would have been the face of by endless speculation beginning over 30 years ago as the Bank of Japan went to “zero.” In reality, the Nikkei is still well below highs reached back in 1989.

    From there, Sternberg tacks to the popular notion about a search for yield as “individual savers desperate to find returns poured billions of dollars into cryptocurrency ‘investments’.” See above to understand the limits of such a belief, and then imagine retail investors calling their brokers with “I can’t get enough yield now, so please buy BitcoinBTC for me.” It’s not realistic to believe that retail buyers can move markets in this way. If in possession of such power, then it stands to reason that hedge funds working in concert with one another could forever move markets in any direction desired….Except that they couldn’t. 

    After which, there’s just no evidence of central banks being able to stimulate soaring markets. If they could, the markets and the underlying economy would be so destroyed as to not rate discussion. If anyone doubts the previous truth, just look up the most valuable companies in the year 2000 to see just how awful the U.S. economy would presently be if central bankers could prop up prices artificially in the way that Sternberg seems to suggest.

    The columnist believes that “The greatest financial fiasco so far this business cycle couldn’t have happened without the Fed,” which is Sternberg arguably getting what happened in recent years backwards. More realistically, it’s the happy truth that equity markets routinely reshuffle the flow of capital that speaks to why cryptocurrencies became a thing. Put bluntly, investors would never have found cryptocurrencies if the Fed’s zero rates had pushed “individual investors desperate to find returns” into higher-yielding assets simply because they wouldn’t have needed to. 

    All of which brings us back to Bankman-Fried. While the guess here is that the commentary meant to vilify him today will age as well as that which lionized him not too long ago, and while this column would never condone lying, fraud or theft assuming any of three reveal themselves, the whole FTX saga will ultimately be viewed by sober minds as progress. George Gilder has long referred to what the lazy and simplistic in thought refer to as “bubbles” as “growth spasms.” Exactly. It’s through the production of information that we progress.

    Looking back in time, in the early parts of the 20th century thousands of carmakers or would-be carmakers were matched with capital. Just about every single company created failed. Fast forward to the end of the 20th century, something similar happened with the internet. One supposes Sternberg would find the fingerprints of “the Fed” on both growth spasms, but the happier reality is that copious investment in world-changing technology of the automobile and internet variety thoroughly transformed how we lived and live. Put another way, what Sternberg contends is a Fed creation is actually history repeating itself as investors with serious skin in the game search for the future.

    As The Money Confusion asserts, something similar is afoot now. Just don’t give the Fed credit for this surge of investment. The simple truth is that if the Fed had control of credit and its cost as the pundit class imagines, there wouldn’t exist enough credit for intrepid investing of this kind to begin with.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 18:20

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  • Kyle Bass: China's Xi Intentionally Crashing Property Market, Preparing For War
    Kyle Bass: China’s Xi Intentionally Crashing Property Market, Preparing For War

    Authored by Liam Cosgrove via The Epoch Times,

    Dallas-based hedge fund manager Kyle Bass is predicting big economic issues for China throughout 2023, stemming from an overleveraged financial system, collapsing property market, and unsustainable birth rates.

    China, a nation accustomed to greater than 7 percent real GDP growth for the past 10 years, is seeing signs of economic sluggishness. “The volume of exports could actually shrink by 6 percent on average in 2022 and 2023,” predicted the BlackRock Investment Institute in an October report.

    Bass, founder of the asset management firm Hayman Capital and prominent China hawk, claimed the Chinese are in a financial conundrum of their own making. “They have architectural problems,” the fund manager said in a Dec. 17 interview on the podcast Forward Guidance.

    Blaming the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) incentives and monetary policies for creating an environment of “riverboat gambling in their property sector,” Bass warned of real estate’s burgeoning share of Chinese GDP. Estimates of the property market’s share in the nation’s economy vary, but economist and Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff estimated it to be around 30 percent, as of September 2021.

    The growth of the property sector has ushered in an unprecedented drop in housing affordability.

    Last year, according to Bass, the median home price-to-income ratio in tier-one Chinese cities exceeded 36—meaning it would take more than three decades for the working class to accumulate the necessary income to purchase a home. The fund manager juxtaposed these figures to those of the U.S. housing bubble in 2008.

    “Just to put these into perspective, in the United States, median home prices got to be just over six times median income when our subprime crisis collapsed.”

    A commercial housing community is seen under construction in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China, on April 15, 2022. Since March, due to weakening market demand, banks in more than 100 cities across the country have voluntarily lowered mortgage interest rates. (Costfoto/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

    Xi’s War on Housing

    Despite its lofty heights, the Chinese property is cooling off. National home prices have declined for the preceding 16 months, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics in China.

    Property developers are feeling the sting. S&P Global Ratings estimated in September that the Chinese real estate market needs a bailout of almost $100 billion to ensure projects can continue.

    These real estate pains are intentional, said Bass. They are part of CCP leader Xi Jinping’s mission to solve the country’s worsening demographic crisis.

    “What Xi figured out is the average birth rate of the average Chinese woman has dropped from over 2.1 to now 1.2,” the fund manager explained. Bass connected birth rates to house prices by pointing out that home ownership is essential to family formation.

    “They can’t marry in the basement of their parent’s house, so they don’t,” he added. “The birth rate started collapsing, and we all know the demographic curve of China looks terrible because of the one-child policy, but this supercharged the problem.”

    The “one-child policy” refers to China’s population curbing initiative, implemented in 1980 by former Chinese leader Deng Xiaopeng, which punished parents for having more than one child. The policy drastically reduced the country’s younger population, led to a stark gender imbalance, and was repealed in 2015.

    According to Bass, Xi recognizes the severity of China’s demographic problem and has decided to reverse the trend at all costs.

    “Xi decided to squash real estate. He knows it has to come down and stay down.”

    Taiwan Invasion Risk Factor

    The Texan fund manager has long been sounding the alarm about the communist regime’s plans to invade Taiwan and has warned western capital allocators to divest from China while they still can. Such an invasion is a matter of “when” not “if,” as Bass sees it.

    “If you listen to Xi … He is battening down the hatches,” Bass said in the interview. “There’s no question that he moves on Taiwan.”

    Bass sits on the board of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) fund, a newly launched investment fund founded by insiders from Washington, Australia, Japan, and India. The goal of Quad is to advance initiatives that give the West competitive advantages over China.

    If China were to invade Taiwan, Bass believes the United States should not hold any punches, specifically advocating for their removal from the SWIFT system—a move taken against several Russian banks earlier this year. “We can collapse their economy in a matter of months or maybe even weeks,” the fund manager said.

    Some economists disagree that the United States has the upper hand in an all-out trade war scenario as they believe Beijing can weaponize its U.S. Treasury bonds by dumping them. China owns just over $900 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds as of October, according to data from the Treasury Department.

    However, Bass believes China cannot sell bonds all at once, since doing so would cause economic distress for Beijing.

    “You need dollars running your economy … 86 percent of their settlements are in dollars, so they desperately need dollars to deal with the rest of the world,” Bass said.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 12/21/2022 – 00:05

  • Elon Musk's Starlink Now Has One Million Active Subscribers
    Elon Musk’s Starlink Now Has One Million Active Subscribers

    Elon Musk’s SpaceX announced it had reached the million “active subscribers” milestone, up from 250,000 in March. 

    “Starlink now has more than 1,000,000 active subscribers — thank you to all customers and members of the Starlink team who contributed to this milestone,” SpaceX tweeted on Monday. 

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    Over two years and dozens of successful launches later, SpaceX has more than 3,600 Starlink satellites in low-Earth orbit. The Federal Communications Commission on Dec. 1 granted Starlink partial approval to operate 7,500 of the nearly 30,000 planned satellites. In a Dec. 16 regulatory filing with the FCC, SpaceX said it “anticipates that it will begin launching Gen2 satellites [second-generation Starlink satellites] before the end of December 2022.”

    Starlink’s significant jump in subscribers sounds impressive, but it has come at the cost of slower speeds. A recent report via Ookla shows that Starlink download speeds have continued to slide as new users come online. 

    In addition to adding Gen2 satellites to increase capacity for expanding Starlink’s customer base, the company plans direct-to-smartphone services with T-Mobile next year. 

    As for now, there’s still a long waitlist to receive a Starlink in some regions, though people have opted for the RV Starlink [available almost immediately] that can be transported to different locations. With RV Starlink, customers don’t get priority on the network (meaning slower speeds). 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 23:45

  • CVS, Walgreens Limit Sales Of Children's Pain Meds Amid Shortage
    CVS, Walgreens Limit Sales Of Children’s Pain Meds Amid Shortage

    Be Jeremy Tanner of Nextar Media

    As the country slogs through a “tripledemic” wave of COVID-19, influenza and RSV infections, CVS and Walgreens confirmed Monday that they are limiting purchases of children’s pain and fever medication. A Walgreens spokesperson told Nexstar that the decision was due to “increased demand and various supplier challenges,” and that pediatric fever reducing products are “seeing constraint across the country.”

    There is currently no widespread, national shortage so supplies may vary from one community to another.

    “In an effort to help support availability and avoid excess purchases, we put into effect an online only purchase limit of six per online transaction for all over-the-counter pediatric fever reducers,” the spokesperson added.

    The company encourages customers looking to buy an item in-store to check the Walgreens website for inventory by location.

    CVS spokesperson Mary Gattuso said the drugstore chain created the product limit to ensure “equitable access for all our customers.”

    There is currently a two product limit on all children’s pain relief products at all CVS Pharmacy locations and cvs.com, Gattuso confirmed.

    “We’re committed to meeting our customers’ needs and are working with our suppliers to ensure continued access to these items,” Gattuso said.

    How did we get here?

    Experts are blaming the early, widespread arrival of flu cases in the U.S., in combination with other respiratory illnesses, for the overwhelming demand for over-the-counter medication.

    “There are more sick kids at this time of year than we have seen in the past couple years,” said Dr. Shannon Dillon, a pediatrician at Riley Children’s Health in Indianapolis.

    Drugmaker Johnson & Johnson says it is not experiencing widespread shortages of Children’s Tylenol, but the product may be “less readily available” at some stores. The company said it is running its production lines around the clock.

    “At this point, it’s more like toilet paper at the beginning of the (COVID-19) pandemic,” Dillon said “You just have to look in the right place at the right time.”

    Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CBS “Face the Nation” host Margaret Brennan on Sunday that shortages of children’s cold medicine, as well as an ongoing shortage of antibiotic drugs, are the result of unanticipated levels of demand, not a problem with the supply chain.

    “Demand went up this year, they anticipated some increase in demand, but not as much as we’re seeing and not this early in the season,” Gottlieb said. “So it’s not any kind of disruption in supply. This isn’t like what we had with baby formula where manufacturers have been taken out of the market.”

    Gottlieb anticipates that the pharmaceutical industry’s “sophisticated supply chain” should catch up soon.

    In the meantime, parents of sick children may want to explore other options if they find bare shelves at their local pharmacy, experts say. To start with, you may want to check different locations, consider generic versions of name-brand drugs or even ask the family doctor where to find a well-stocked supply.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 23:05

  • El Paso Mayor Warns 20,000 Illegal Aliens Waiting In Mexico To Cross Border When Title 42 Ends
    El Paso Mayor Warns 20,000 Illegal Aliens Waiting In Mexico To Cross Border When Title 42 Ends

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

    Roughly 20,000 illegal aliens are waiting to cross the border into El Paso, Texas, as soon as the Trump-era Title 42 program ends, Mayor Oscar Leeser said on Monday.

    Leeser made the comments at a press conference just two days after declaring a state of emergency amid an influx of illegal aliens that have crossed the southern border and been released into the city. Many of them are sleeping in downtown streets while temperatures are freezing, according to officials.

    “We’ve been talking to some of the partners in Mexico, and we’re talking also to the Border Patrol and those are the numbers that have been fed back to us,” said Leeser.

    “The shelters in [Ciudad] Juarez are completely full today, and they believe there are about 20,000 people ready to come into El Paso.”

    Leeser, a Democrat, added that his office has been working with local agencies to ensure that the city is prepared to handle the wave of illegal immigrants.

    Title 42 allowed Border Patrol agents to turn illegal aliens back to their country immediately if they were deemed to pose a health threat amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

    A U.S. Border Patrol agent instructs immigrants who had crossed the Rio Grande into El Paso, Texas, on Dec. 19, 2022 as seen from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. (John Moore/Getty Images)

    El Paso Declares State of Emergency

    The policy, which was set to end on Dec. 21, has been used millions of times to expel aliens since March 2020 and has prompted fears among officials that cities and states could soon be overwhelmed with immigrants.

    Preliminary Customs and Border Protection data shared with The Epoch Times shows that El Paso and Del Rio in Texas, two of the busiest sectors along the border, apprehended 70,288 illegal aliens between Dec. 1 through Dec. 19. An additional 28,913 “getaways,” or those who evaded arrest, were also reported.

    According to acting Chief Patrol Agent Peter Jaquez of the El Paso Sector, border agents experienced a major surge in illegal crossings over the weekend of Dec. 10 to Dec. 11, with a three-day average of 2,460 daily encounters. This marks a 40 percent increase compared with October. More increases are expected.

    In order to help deal with the increased number of illegal aliens, Leeser declared a state of emergency, granting the city more resources and authority to shelter those who have crossed the southern border.

    An emergency operations center will also be opened to help manage the situation, Leeser said.

    “We know that the influx on Wednesday will be incredible,” the mayor said in a news conference announcing the state of emergency.

    “I said from the beginning, that I would call it when I felt that either our asylum-seekers or our community, was not safe. I really believe that today our asylum-seekers are not safe as we have hundreds and hundreds on the streets and that’s not the way we want to treat people.”

    Supreme Court Puts Title 42 End on Hold

    On Nov. 16, a federal judge ruled that Title 42 was unlawful and ordered the Biden administration to end it by Dec. 21. Republican states promptly filed a motion seeking to stay the order but that order was denied late on Dec. 16 by a federal appeals court.

    The GOP-led states, including Arizona, Louisiana, and Texas, filed an emergency application seeking to reverse the lower court’s decision, just days before the policy was set to expire, noting that removing it would “needlessly endanger more Americans and migrants by exacerbating the catastrophe that is occurring at our southern border.”

    Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts agreed to the temporary pause to the termination of the policy but said the Biden administration must respond to the emergency appeal by 5 p.m. ET Tuesday.

    On Dec. 15, the city of Denver also declared a state of emergency in an effort to prevent a local humanitarian crisis amid an influx of illegal aliens arriving mainly from El Paso.

    Mayor Michael Hancock, a Democrat, said the increased number of illegal aliens arriving in the city, mostly from Central and South America, is placing extreme pressure on the city’s efforts to shelter them and leading to limited space. The situation is being further exacerbated by staffing issues and winter weather, according to Hancock.

    “It is at a crisis point right now and cities all over this country are being forced to deal with something we’re not equipped to deal with,” Hancock said.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 22:45

  • Iran & Russia Have Entered "Full-Fledged Defense Partnership," US Warns
    Iran & Russia Have Entered “Full-Fledged Defense Partnership,” US Warns

    The US has alleged that relations between Iran and Russia have reached a “full fledged defense partnership” – based on the words of the US State Department’s Ned Price. 

    Price explained that Iran has continued its shipments of drones to the Russian military, at a moment drones have continued to pound Ukrainian cities, particularly targeting energy infrastructure – plunging at least half the country into darkness, and resulting in rolling emergency blackouts.

    Price went on the explain that the constant supply of drones and other munitions has in return resulted in Moscow giving back “unprecedented level of military and technical support to Iran… that should concern Iran’s neighbors.”

    Iranian Shahed-136 drones

    The US and UK have recently ramped up sanctions efforts to isolate and punish the Islamic Republic’s defense sector, and to thwart the drone transfers, but now see the closer relationship with Moscow as a ‘life-line’ keeping these manufacturers operating and thriving.

    An estimated hundreds of drones, and possibly thousands throughout the course of the over 10-month long conflict, are alleged to have been transferred from Iran to the Russian military. Throughout the opening half of the war, both Russian and the Iranian government denied the drone transfers; however, more recently Tehran officials belatedly admitted to sales which they say took place before the Feb. 24 invasion.

    The Ukrainian government and intelligence has countered that hundreds more are on the way: 

    A Ukrainian senior intelligence official says Russia has received a new shipment of Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones from the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    According to Ukraine’s defense intelligence (GUR) spokesman Andriy Yusov, the new shipment is smaller than the previous one sometime in the summer that is estimated to have included at least 400 UAVs.

    Yusov said in a Sunday statement, “This is a new batch [of Shahed drones], we do not comment on its size, but we see that Shaheds were not used during yesterday’s massive terrorist missile strikes.”

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    “All other available weapons were used, and these were all missiles and no Shaheds,” he continued. “This is a new batch, but this one, compared to the initial mass use of Shahed, is obviously smaller.”

    Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Monday again repeated the official government line that all Iranian-made drones were sent to Moscow “before the Ukraine war began.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 22:25

  • Dems Dump Trump Tax Data In Tuesday Night Release
    Dems Dump Trump Tax Data In Tuesday Night Release

    Update (2020ET): Hours after they voted to release Trump’s tax returns, House Democrats released a report which includes the data from Trump’s taxes.

    You can read the report below as we are currently doing, however upon first read – and the fact that it was quietly released on a Tuesday night instead of via a Washington Post bombshell detailing specific ‘evil things’ Trump’s done, we are going to – for now, assume this is a giant nothingburger.

    In a coordinated response to the release, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said there is an “urgent need for legislation to ensure the public can trust in real accountability and transparency during the audit of a sitting president’s tax returns – not only in the case of President Trump, but for any president,” adding “we will move swiftly to advance Chairman Richard Neal’s legislation requiring the Internal Revenue Service to conduct an annual audit of the President’s finances.”

    In their closing observations, Democrats suggested that the IRS did not sufficiently audit Trump, and that high net worth individuals who use lawyers and accounting firms should be subject to enhanced actions.

    Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX), the top Republican on the Committee, warned in a press conference, “Longstanding privacy protections for all taxpayers have been compromised. Going forward, the majority chairman in the House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee will have nearly unlimited power to target or make public the tax returns of private citizens—and not just private citizens: political enemies, business and labor leaders or even the returns of Supreme Court justices themselves.”

    *  *  *

    After a Tuesday vote, Democrats on the House and Ways Committee have voted to release six years of President Trump’s tax returns, in what Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX), the top Republican on the Committee, called a ‘new political weapon.’

    “This meeting actually sets a terrible precedent that unleashes a dangerous new political weapon that reaches far beyond the former president,” Brady told reporters on Tuesday. “I won’t speculate on what the next Congress and this committee will focus on related to tax returns, but I do know that a major focus will be on the IRS.”

    The committee voted along party lines, 24-16, to make public the returns – which will span 2015 to 2020. While the returns could be released as soon as hours, per The Hill, Chairman Richard Neal said that ‘sensitive information’ would be redacted, which may take days.

    Progressives, meanwhile, cheered the decision.

    “Chairman [Richard Neal (D-MA)] and the Ways and Means Democrats are to be congratulated for their dogged pursuit of this important information. Now they must share the fruit of their labors with the American people, the final arbiters of what is acceptable behavior by our elected leaders,” said Frank Clemente, director of the Americans for Tax Fairness nonprofit.

    That said, some legal minds are saying that Democrats would be abusing the oversight process if they rush to make the tax returns public without substantially assessing the presidential audit program – the ostensible reason for obtaining Trump’s returns, The Hill reports.

    “Any review of the presidential audit program that starts now and ends when the GOP takes control of the House in January would be slapdash and superficial,” said NYU Law professor Daniel Hemel in an article posted to Lawfare earlier this month.

    “Neal and the House Ways and Means Committee would undermine their own credibility—and could be seen as hoodwinking the courts and the public—if they proceeded to release the returns outside the context of a comprehensive review of the presidential audit program,” he added.

    Tax experts have expressed doubts about whether the documents obtained by the committee are enough to back up years of investigative reporting that also gained access to Trump’s financial records and painted a dismal picture of Trump as a businessman.

    “It could be a case of too little too late,” Steve Rosenthal, an analyst with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, said in an interview. “I expect very little, without a fuller probe.” -The Hill

    In 2017, MSNBC host Rachel Maddow released two pages of Trump’s 2005 tax returns, which revealed that he paid $38 million that year, and the rate he paid was higher than than Mitt Romney and several other top earners.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 22:12

  • Twitter Files Point To Urgent Need For Platform Transparency
    Twitter Files Point To Urgent Need For Platform Transparency

    Authored by Kalev Leetaru via RealClear Wire,

    December has been a whirlwind month in the Twitterverse. A new academic study argued that hate speech was surging on the platform, while new company owner Elon Musk countered that such tweets were being quietly hidden, so they didn’t count. High-profile journalists were abruptly suspended and restored with little explanation, with condemnations from the EU and UN. All the while, the so-called “Twitter Files” allowed an unprecedented inside look at the messy and controversial world of platform moderation. What can we learn from all of this about the how the social platforms at the heart of our digital democracies are run?

    Twitter is unique among major social platforms in that outside researchers can access a real-time data feed of every tweet ever sent. This enables external audits of its content and is the means by which researchers have been able to document a significant rise in hate speech. But there’s a catch: Because Twitter does not make available the number of views each tweet gets, it’s impossible to distinguish between a tweet that received millions of views and one that was seen by three people. This difference between production (sending a tweet) and consumption (how many users see that tweet) lies at the heart of the dispute over Twitter’s changes to its moderation practices. Researchers claim hate speech is soaring because that is what they can measure, while Musk claims those tweets aren’t being seen, based on data that only Twitter itself possesses. If Twitter were to make such viewership data available, it could both generate rich new revenue streams and demonstrate to its critics that its visibility filtering is as effective as it claims.

    In one of the company’s most controversial moderation decisions since Musk took ownership, Twitter suspended a group of journalists last week, before restoring some of them just days later, leaving others banished and suspending new ones. Musk’s explanation, delivered after the fact with little specificity, was that he was only silencing journalists who were engaged in “doxxing” behavior that put his own family at risk.

    This wasn’t necessarily true: Some of those suspended were merely covering the controversy. But what was undeniably true was that only days earlier, the legacy media had largely ignored the revelations of the recent “Twitter Files.” The mainstream outlets that did cover it were mostly dismissive, arguing that Twitter is a private company that has the right to decide which voices to allow or disallow and does not owe any explanation to conservatives banished in the past.

    Yet when their own voices were suddenly silenced, the same mainstream media condemned the idea that voices could be silenced “without warning, process, or explanation” and denounced the “zero communication from the company on why I was suspended or what terms I violated.” Buzzfeed reporter Katie Notopoulos best summarized the reactions in her comment to Musk himself: “It’s highly unusual for a journalist at The Washington Post and The Washington Times to have their Twitter account suspended.”

    In other words, Twitter is a private company that can silence whomever it likes – until it comes for them. In this way, the “Twitter Files” served as a kind of Rorschach test, as Musk likely knew it would. Working with a hand-picked set of journalists, he granted access to selected internal correspondence and data to offer a never-before-seen glimpse into how Twitter has conducted some of its most controversial moderation decisions.

    The first release, on Dec. 2, offered more detail on the company’s decision-making around suppressing the Hunter Biden laptop story and the degree to which partisan players with an interest in the outcome influence how Twitter prioritizes content removals. While containing no bombshell revelations, the tranche of internal emails nonetheless documented the routineness of external influence in Twitter’s enforcement. Yet the larger, unanswered question is what this landscape of external takedown requests really looks like: Who is the cast of characters that has access to this direct line into Twitter’s removal teams? Releasing the entire archive of these requests would enable journalists and scholars to form a more complete picture of what was taking place.

    The second release, on Dec. 8, focused on how Twitter quietly adjusts the visibility of tweets, accounts, and even entire topics in real-time to nudge its platform away from speech it views as allowable but “harmful.” While this was seized on as a newly uncovered revelation, the company has for years openly touted this “visibility filtering” as a powerful tool for addressing speech it believes detracts from its community. The real story is whether this filtering has been applied more to some constituencies than others. If Twitter were to release a master list of everything that has ever been subject to visibility filtering over time, this would go a long way toward answering this existential question. As a first step towards such transparency, Twitter says it will soon alert users about whether they themselves are subject to filtering.

    The third, fourth, and fifth releases, Dec. 9-12, documented Twitter’s banishment of Donald Trump in January 2021. While offering slightly more detail on his removal, the emails largely match what had already been widely reported.

    The sixth release, on Dec. 12, focused on Twitter’s engagement with law enforcement, specifically the FBI. Combined with earlier revelations of government-requested visibility filtering, it revealed the deference the company granted government agencies and select outside organizations. While any Twitter user can report a tweet for removal, officials at the platform provided more direct and expedited channels for select organizations, raising obvious ethical questions about the government’s non-public efforts at censorship. It also captured the degree to which law enforcement requested information – from the physical location of users to foreign influence – from social platforms outside of formal court orders, raising important questions of due process and accountability.

    Despite this trove of internal documents raising profound questions about the role of outside influence in platforms’ decisions, the amount of media coverage the Twitter Files received was almost utterly dependent on the partisan orientation of the media outlet itself. As of Sunday, Fox News had mentioned them 943 times, compared to just 33 mentions on CNN and just 29 on MSNBC. In contrast, the 2021 “Facebook Files,” in which internal communications and documents from the company were released to the public by a whistleblower, garnered global media coverage.

    Besides ideological considerations, the biggest difference is that the Facebook Files consisted of a vast tranche of internal documents that were released under embargo to a wide array of mainstream news outlets who could all review and report on them, contact sources for comment, contextualize them, etc. Those documents were provided in their entirety to newsrooms, enabling reporters to see their full context and counteract claims of cherry-picked statements.

    And Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey himself has called for all of the underlying Twitter Files documents to be released to the public – sidestepping why he is only now embracing the idea of moderation transparency when these actions occurred under his watch. Releasing the documents in full would address the emerging consensus in the media world that might be best summarized as “Musk is baiting mainstream media companies to cover a manufactured scandal about something that happened years ago” with “cherry-picked so-called evidence.”

    In the end, the Twitter Files provide few revelations that were not already widely known and reported on. That Twitter’s moderation practices and external engagements are so surprising to the American public offers a stark reminder of just how little the public understands about the way social platforms work. In the end, however, perhaps their greatest lesson is just how urgently we need transparency into the inner workings of the social platforms that form our modern digital public square.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 22:05

  • Cold Exposure May Inhibit Cancer Growth By 'Hijacking' Glucose Storage
    Cold Exposure May Inhibit Cancer Growth By ‘Hijacking’ Glucose Storage

    Ice baths and cold plunges have been brought into the limelight following Joe Rogan and Dr. Andrew Huberman’s Podcast earlier this year about the health benefits of cold exposure therapy. A study published last year by Dr. Susanna Soeberg, an expert in cold and heat treatment, was cited in the Podcast. 

    When thinking about ice baths — the first thing that comes to mind is cold exposure for athletic performance and exercise recovery. But according to Rogan and Huberman, as well as Soeberg’s study and others, regular users subjected to cold therapy will reap the health benefits in the form of adaptive hormesis, regulating hormones relating to sleep, regulating energy levels, mood maintenance, faster recovery after training and improved mental processing.

    In a separate study, the health benefits go even deeper. Researchers from the Karolinska Institute in Sweden showed that cold exposure could inhibit the growth of cancerous cells in mice and humans. 

    Researchers published their findings in the British weekly scientific journal Nature. Titled “Brown-fat-mediated tumour suppression by cold-altered global metabolism,” they found that rodents with cancerous cells that were continuously exposed to very low temperatures, but above freezing, for 20 days, experienced an activation of their brown fat tissue, which burns energy rather than storing it, diminishing the tumors’ energy supply.

    “Similarly, cold exposure of tumour-bearing mice also markedly inhibited the growth rates of these tumour types,” the study said. 

    New Scientist explained more about the study:  

    To eliminate the possibility that the tumour suppression was down to something other than the cold therapy, Cao [researcher Yihai Cao] and his team intervened in several ways. After surgically removing the cold-exposed mice’s brown fat, or turning off the gene by which brown fat generates heat, tumour inhibition was absent.

    The inhibition was also absent when the mice were fed a high-glucose diet, suggesting that the tumours’ growth was inhibited by a lack of glucose. The team also performed a genetic analysis on the cold-exposed tumours, finding a decrease in markers associated with glucose consumption.

    Then in the second part of the experiment, researchers exposed a group of six healthy humans to 61°F for 2 to 6 hours for two weeks. What they found was similar to the mice. Volunteers’ brown fat tissue was activated. 

    A person with Hodgkin’s lymphoma was continuously exposed to cold (72°F) for a week. The results also found brown fat became activated, and their tumors consumed less glucose over this period. 

    A lot more research in cold exposure therapy needs to be performed. In the meantime, the trend of ice baths and even heat exposure in combination has gone viral on social media after Rogan’s podcasts. 

    … and Wim Hof, also known as ‘The Iceman’, has been leading the cold exposure movement for years. 

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 21:45

  • Biden To Sign Defense Funding Bill, Ending Military’s COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate: White House
    Biden To Sign Defense Funding Bill, Ending Military’s COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate: White House

    Authored by Zachary Stieber and Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    President Joe Biden will sign the $858 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) this week, even though the measure ends the U.S. military’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate, the White House said.

    “He’s going to sign that later this week,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Dec. 19 in Washington.

    White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in Washington on Dec. 19, 2022. (Brandon Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

    The White House had kept open the possibility of a veto because of the budget bill’s inclusion of the forced termination of the military’s vaccine mandate, which the president opposed.

    The bill “has some provisions we support and some we do not,” Jean-Pierre said. “Clearly, the president was opposed to rolling back the vaccine mandate but we saw that Republicans in Congress decided that they’d rather fight against the health and well-being of the troops than protecting them.”

    She claimed that the vaccine mandate was protecting troops, even though many experts have acknowledged that the vaccines don’t stop transmission, provide little protection against infection, and have a waning effect on severe illness. Mandate critics have also noted that young, healthy people—the bulk of the military—face little risk from COVID-19.

    It isn’t clear when the president will sign the bill, which was passed by bipartisan majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate in recent weeks. The NDAA for fiscal year 2023 states that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the Biden appointee who imposed the vaccine mandate in 2021, must repeal the policy within 30 days of Biden’s signature.

    Pentagon officials, who have said they want to keep the mandate in place, declined to comment.

    “We won’t comment on pending legislation,” a spokesperson told The Epoch Times via email. Austin was spotted entering the office of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) around the time that Jean-Pierre spoke.

    While Republicans spearheaded the end of the mandate, many Democrats joined them in ending the requirement.

    Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said the mandate made sense when it was imposed but makes little sense now that the protection from a primary series of a vaccine serves little protection.

    “Personally, I would have preferred the Department of Defense do it on their own rather than legislature telling them to but since they didn’t, I think this makes sense, and I think we ought to do it,” he said on the House floor.

    Soldiers file paperwork before being administered COVID-19 vaccines in Fort Knox, Ky., on Sept. 9, 2021. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images)

    Pentagon Is Urged to Reinstate Discharged Troops

    Military branches have discharged more than 8,400 members over vaccine refusal. Three branches have been blocked by courts from discharging members seeking religious exemptions due to findings they likely or did violate the members’ constitutional rights with nearly word-for-word rejections.

    A group of senators urged Austin on Dec. 16 to reinstate the members who have been discharged.

    “All branches of our military are facing significant recruiting problems, including problems arising from the vaccine requirement,” they said in a missive (pdf). “Therefore, it is in our readiness and security interests to keep these brave men and women within our ranks.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 21:25

  • Chinese Refiners Are Profiting From The Russian Oil Price Cap
    Chinese Refiners Are Profiting From The Russian Oil Price Cap

    By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com,

    Independent Chinese refiners have seen their refining margins jump in recent weeks as they are able to negotiate steeper discounts for their preferred Russian crude grade, even if they buy it above the G7 price cap, trading and industry sources told Reuters on Tuesday.

    The flow of cheaper Russian crude to China lifted the refining margins of the independent refiners, the so-called teapots, to above $115 (800 Chinese yuan) per ton last week, from less than $86 (600 yuan) at the beginning of December, according to a China-based oil analyst who spoke to Reuters.   

    Many independent Chinese refiners based in the Shandong province have continued to buy Russian crude and are ignoring the price cap imposed by Western countries. The price cap on Russian crude imposed by the EU, the G7, and Australia came into effect on December 5, but China hasn’t joined the so-called Price Cap Coalition, which bans maritime transportation services for Russian crude oil unless the oil is sold at or below $60 per barrel.  

    ESPO, the crude from Russia’s Far East which is preferred by China’s independent refiners, is being sold above the price cap and estimated at around $65-68 per barrel on a free-on-board basis by trading sources. 

    Although it’s above the price cap, the price of ESPO being negotiated by Chinese refiners is still at a wide discount to ICE Brent futures for the month of delivery of the cargo, currently February and March.

    While China hasn’t joined the Price Cap Coalition, the fact that a price cap now exists gives the world’s top crude oil importer, as well as other buyers of Russian crude such as India, more bargaining power to negotiate steep discounts for the Russian crude even outside the price cap mechanism, analysts say.

    The trades with ESPO above the price cap suggest that, for now, Russia has the tankers and insurance firms to provide coverage and shipping for the ESPO grade, which can reach China from Russia’s Far East in less than a week.  

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 20:45

  • US Nuclear-Capable Bombers, F-22 Jets Deploy For Joint Drills Over South Korea
    US Nuclear-Capable Bombers, F-22 Jets Deploy For Joint Drills Over South Korea

    The US has sent a B-52H strategic bomber as well as F-22 stealth fighter jets to participate in joint military drills over South Korea on Tuesday, in what Pyongyang is sure to take as a significant provocation. It comes after the north has test-fired a record number of missiles, including ICMBs, this year – also amid live military exercises.

    “South Korea, US conducted combined air drills involving US B-52H strategic bomber, F-22 stealth fighters,” South Korea’s Defense Ministry said in a statement, also confirming it is utilizing its own F-35A stealth jets and F-15K fighters for the aerial maneuvers with the US.

    US B-52H, F-22 stealth fighter & C-17 in Korea’s air defense identification zone on Tuesday. Korean Ministry of National Defense

    Yonhap News described based on the ministry statement, “The deployment of the B-52H and F-22 fighters this time is part of an effort to reinforce the credibility of the U.S.’ extended deterrence.”

    The deployment comes a mere days after North Korea’s weekend launch of a pair of ballistic missiles fired toward Japan, which set off emergency notifications across the large island-nation. Officially pacifist Japan has meanwhile announced its largest defense budget since WWII, having unveiled a $320 billion plan, which will involve development of long-range offensive missiles.

    The Tuesday Korea-U.S. air drill near Jeju, the country’s largest island off the southern tip of the peninsula.

    “The purpose of joint South Korea-U.S. stealth fighter training is to strengthen the ability to respond to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats,” a Korean government source told regional media. “The training involves practicing strikes on North Korean high-value targets.”

    The Pentagon described the mission as part of “extended deterrence” over the South Korean capital.

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    Likely Pyongyang will respond with more military muscle-flexing, including possibly with more drills near the border. It has already launched over 60 ballistic missiles so far this year. This reportedly included an ICBM launch on November 18. According to The New York Times‘ count, the country has “launched at least 90 ballistic and other missiles this year, more than in any previous year” – despite a UN ban.

    Kim Jong Un’s influential sister responded Tuesday, warning the US and South Korea to “behave carefully and think twice”…

    Earlier Tuesday, Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, used a slew of derisive terms — such as “malicious disparaging,” “rubbish” and “dog barking” — when she dismissed the outside assessments that cast doubt on North Korea’s spy satellite development and long-range missiles.

    South Korean intelligence has for months been warning that the north is preparing its first nuclear test in over half a decade, but despite predictions which have been on since the summer, this has yet to materialize. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 20:25

  • The US Has Spawned An Entire Generation Of 'Kidults' That Simply Refuse To Grow Up
    The US Has Spawned An Entire Generation Of ‘Kidults’ That Simply Refuse To Grow Up

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    Do you know any adults that still live at home with their parents?  If you are like most Americans, you probably know lots of them.  Sadly, that is because the percentage of young adults that are living with at least one parent has been trending upwards for decades.  Of course the cost of housing is one factor that is driving this phenomenon.  At one point in 2022, housing was more unaffordable than it had ever been in the entire history of our country.  So the truth is that many of the multi-generational households that exist today have formed due to economic necessity. 

    But in other cases, “kidults” that simply refuse to grow up have moved back home with Mom and Dad because it is easier than trying to live independently.

    Thanks to the “kidult” trend, approximately half of all U.S. adults in the 18 to 29-year-old age bracket are currently living with at least one parent…

    In July 2022, half of adults ages 18 to 29 were living with one or both of their parents. This was down from a recent peak of 52% in June 2020 but still significantly higher than the share who were living with their parents in 2010 (44% on average that year) or 2000 (38% on average).

    So what do parents think about all of this?

    Well, some like it, but even more don’t like it…

    The share of adult children who live with their parents has ticked up in recent years. This just in: The parents don’t like it.

    A recent Pew survey found two-fifths of dads believe parents hosting adult children is bad for society, while only 12 percent think it’s a good thing. Moms agree, albeit to a lesser degree.

    Overall, the Pew survey discovered that Americans have very mixed feelings about this phenomenon…

    Over a third of Americans (36%) say that more young adults living with their parents is bad for society, while 16% say it is good for society. Nearly half of Americans (47%) say it doesn’t make a difference.

    Of course every story is different.

    Some adults are living at home because they just cannot afford homes of their own.

    These days, millions of young people graduate from college with massive amounts of debt, and when all of that debt forces them to go back to living with their parents they are referred to as “boomerang kids”.

    If you are a young person that has been financially crippled by student loan debt, I certainly don’t blame you for trying to save money so that you can turn your life around.

    Ultimately, trying to get out of debt is a really good thing.

    But of course there are millions of other young adults that simply refuse to grow up.

    In fact, they have become so numerous that the toy industry has created a special term for them.  They are called “kidults”, and these days they are spending billions of dollars on toys…

    There are two things keeping the toy industry afloat right now: inflation and a consumer group known as “kidults.”

    These kids at heart are responsible for one-fourth of all toy sales annually, around $9 billion worth, and are the biggest driver of growth throughout the industry, according to data from the NPD Group.

    Have you ever met an adult that has a special room for all of his Star Wars collectibles?

    If so, then you probably have a really good idea of the type of person that I am talking about.

    “Kidults” are shelling out so much money for toys that toy companies have actually begun to create “product lines just for these consumers”…

    Kidults, who tend to spend more on toys, have a great fondness for cartoons, superheroes and collectibles that remind them of their childhood. They buy merchandise such as action figures, Lego sets and dolls that might typically be considered “for kids.” However, in recent years, toy makers have created product lines just for these consumers, realizing that demand is high for this generation of adults who still want to have fun.

    I am all for having fun.

    But this is getting ridiculous.

    Sadly, men are much more likely to be “kidults” than women are.

    Needless to say, this is one of the reasons why many women find it so difficult to find someone suitable to marry.

    The labor force participation rate for men has been trending down for decades, and meanwhile the labor force participation rate for women has been trending up for decades.

    Of course the systematic emasculation of the male population is another reason why this has been happening, but that is a topic for another article.

    Once upon a time, it was extremely unusual for an able-bodied male to be doing nothing if he was capable of working.

    But now we have millions upon millions of men that have simply dropped out of the labor force completely.

    Some of those men are now living with their parents, and that isn’t good for our society.

    Unfortunately, as economic conditions deteriorate, even more young adults will move back home with Mom and Dad.  According to a Wall Street Journal poll that was just released, approximately two-thirds of Americans believe that “the nation’s economic trajectory is headed in the wrong direction”…

    A majority of voters think the economy will be in worse shape in 2023 than it is now and roughly two-thirds say the nation’s economic trajectory is headed in the wrong direction, the latest Wall Street Journal poll shows.

    The survey, conducted Dec. 3-7, suggests a recent burst of positive economic news—moderating gas prices and a slowing pace of inflation—haven’t altered the way many feel about the risk of a recession, something many economists have forecast as likely.

    The coming year is definitely going to be quite rough, and the outlook for beyond that is even worse.

    As the economy crumbles and global events spiral out of control, we are going to need men to be men.

    But a lot of the “kidults” out there simply don’t want to be men, and that is extremely unfortunate.

    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 20:05

  • Top Russian Diplomat Claims US Still Holding 60 Russians 'Hostage'
    Top Russian Diplomat Claims US Still Holding 60 Russians ‘Hostage’

    Coming fresh off the December 8th one for one prisoner swap of Brittney Griner and Viktor Bout, the Kremlin on Tuesday accused the United States of holding over 60 Russian citizens as “hostages” – in what could be a bid to keep the exchanges going, after the return of Bout was widely seen as hugely beneficial to the Russian side, if not also a full-blown propaganda success.

    Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin complained in the fresh statements that “The Americans deliberately ignore the existing legal mechanisms,” according to RIA Novosti.

    Former US Marine Trevor Reed was released in April 2022, via Reuters.

    He was referencing a treaty signed by both countries in 1999, called the Treaty on Mutual Legal Assistance. Now some two weeks since the Bout and Griner prisoner exchange, which was accomplished when both were let go on an airport tarmac in Doha, Washington and Moscow have continued signaling they remain open to future swaps.

    Vershinin in his comments underscored, “The total number of Russian citizens who have, in fact, been taken hostage, exceeds 60 people.”

    The senior Russian diplomat didn’t offer any details, and it’s unclear how many of these are simply Russian nationals being held for low-level offenses, or else held for espionage or other more serious crimes. 

    The day after Bout’s release earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin said he’s willing to entertain future swaps with the US: 

    Asked after a summit in Kyrgyzstan whether other prisoners could be swapped, Putin replied that “everything is possible,” noting that “compromises have been found” that cleared the way for Thursday’s exchange of Griner for Bout.

    “We aren’t refusing to continue this work in the future,” the Russian leader said, making his first comments about the closely watched trade.

    The White House had previously reacted to these remarks of Putin, with National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby saying soon after that indeed more prisoner swaps remain “possible” – stressing there are active channels of communication for this but that the US wants further “actions” and not just words out of Moscow.

    Former Marine and detained US citizen Paul Whelan, who hoped to be released in the Griner swap, but remains in a Russian penal colony.

    Ex-Marine Paul Whelan and school teacher Marc Fogel are said to be high on the Biden administration’s list of priorities in terms of still locked-up Americans inside Russia. Former Marine Trevor Reed was freed by the Russians last spring in a rare successful swap, which was a precursor to the Griner deal.

    Additionally, the US State Dept. said the following responding to Putin’s remarks about future prisoner swaps: “It’s not often we can say that we actually agree with something President Putin said, but today I can say that,” Ned Price told CNN earlier this month. “President Putin himself has said that these discussions will continue. These discussions absolutely will continue,” Price said.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 19:45

  • The Hope Of Fusion Vs The Pomp Of Politicians And Climate Activists
    The Hope Of Fusion Vs The Pomp Of Politicians And Climate Activists

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    If there is a climate problem, science will find the answer, not politicians or activists…

    There was an interesting trio of articles in the Wall Street Journal this week with seemingly conflicting messages.

    Hold the Nuclear Fusion Hype

    Headline Number One: Hold the Nuclear Fusion Hype

    The breakthrough is exciting but its practical use as an energy source may be decades away.

    What the experiment proved is that scientists can recreate the physical reactions in stars. But scaling the technology and making it commercially viable by most scientists’ accounts will likely take another few decades.

    How Fusion Works and Why It’s a Breakthrough

    Headline Number Two: How Fusion Works and Why It’s a Breakthrough

    The Energy Department has announced the first gain in energy from fusion in a laboratory—the first time fusion reactions produced more energy than it took to induce them. Last week 192 laser beams at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory’s National Ignition Facility heated and compressed a capsule of hydrogen to previously unattainable temperatures and pressures, igniting fusion reactions that produced 50% more energy than the laser beams had delivered.

    Nuclear-Fusion Breakthrough Accelerates Quest to Unlock Limitless Energy Source

    This is the third headline and the article has the most details. The link below is a a free link. The article merits a close look and has some very interesting diagrams. 

    Headline Number Three: Nuclear-Fusion Breakthrough Accelerates Quest to Unlock Limitless Energy Source

    Experiment yields net-positive energy, a milestone in effort to develop nuclear fusion as a source of clean power.

    Researchers said that shortly after 1 a.m. last Monday, they fired the largest laser in the world into a tiny cylinder holding a diamond capsule containing hydrogen isotopes. For a brief moment, the laser delivered energy that exceeds the entire U.S. power grid, in an attempt to compress the capsule’s fuel to reach densities, temperatures and pressures that are higher than the center of the sun. In the moments after the shot, the researchers weren’t sure what had happened.

    “The shot goes off. It takes only a few billionths of a second, and so we need an exquisite suite of diagnostics to measure what happened,” said Alex Zylstra, the principal experimentalist on the project. “And as the data started to come in, we saw the first indications that we had produced more fusion energy than the laser input.”

    It is premature to talk about building fusion power plants, said Gianluca Sarri, a professor of physics at Queen’s University Belfast who wasn’t involved in the new research. “There are technical issues that need to be solved still before it becomes an energy source,” he added. 

    “We are still not gaining electrical energy” Dr. Sarri said.

    The lasers at the National Ignition Facility are less than 1% efficient, according to Jonathan Davies, a senior scientist at the University of Rochester’s Laboratory for Laser Energetics. The facility used hundreds of megajoules of electricity to produce the laser light needed to produce about 3 megajoules of fusion energy.

    Same Thing, Different Lead Message

    All three articles say the same thing inside, but the initial message looks vastly different. 

    • Hold the Hype

    • Fusion Breakthrough

    • Limitless Energy Source

    The articles and headlines are accurate. They don’t really conflict, they just provide a different initial message. 

    The details in the third article show the problems ahead. Scientists were successful but it took hundreds of megajoules of electricity to produce the laser light needed to produce about 3 megajoules of fusion energy.

    Yet, I find it fascinating that scientists were able to produce temperatures as hot as the sun without anything melting or blowing up. 

    The extreme temperatures and pressures—similar to those in the cores of stars and giant planets and in exploding nuclear weapons—triggered a fusion reaction. The hydrogen atoms combined to form helium, releasing a tremendous amount of energy at the same time. The Dec. 5 fusion reaction produced 3.15 megajoules of energy, a gain of about 1.5 times.

    Pomp of Activists and Politicians

    This weekend AOC’s climate change documentary earned only $80 per theater despite rave critic reviews.

    OutKick reports AOC’s Clime Change Documentary Fails Hard

    Film critics say the film titled “To the End” is splendid. It holds a 88% “fresh” critic score on Rotten Tomatoes. The doc has not yet generated an average rating from the audience.

    But despite critics raving about AOC’s beauty and intelligence, moviegoers have shown no such interest in the film.

    The documentary earned an average of just $81 per theater during its debut weekend. “To the End” sits atop no lists of box office successes.

    A failure this great falls on par with the embarrassment that is Jemele Hill’s book sales. Per publishing data, Hill’s new self-purported journey in overcoming racism has sold just $5,034 copies after a month.

    AOC, Hill, racial hysteria, and climate change propaganda play well on social media. The press loves those women and their “issues.” Yet most of the country does not care.

    There’s minimal demand to buy a ticket to watch rich, privileged women stroll around and screech about climate change.

    Totally Boring Trailer

    If that’s not overwhelmingly boring, what is? 

    The hype is constant and has been consistently wrong. The word did not end in the 10 years after which activists said it would.

    The world will still be here in 2050. 

    UN Seeks $4 to 6 Trillion Per Year to Address Climate

    On October 29, I noted UN Seeks $4 to 6 Trillion Per Year to Address Climate

    Current pledges for action by 2030, if delivered in full, would mean a rise in global heating of about 2.5C and catastrophic extreme weather around the world. A rise of 1C to date has caused climate disasters in countries from Pakistan to Puerto Rico.

    What Would It Cost?

    Hooray! Only $4 trillion to 6 trillion per year.

    “A global transformation from a heavily fossil fuel- and unsustainable land use-dependent economy to a low-carbon economy is expected to require investments of at least US$4–6 trillion a year,” stated the UN report (page 26 of 132).

    Q: US$4–6 trillion a year for how many years?
    A: Based on figure ES.6 (lead chart) least eight years.

    Q: What Percent of GDP?
    A: 4 to 9 percent for developing countries, and 2 to 4 percent for developed countries.

    And developing countries will gladly fork over up to 9 percent of GDP every year for eight years.

    Yeah, right.

    Meanwhile, the EU is burning more trees and coal. Burning trees is magically deemed environmentally neutral. 

    What a hoot.

    Exploring the Massive Clean Energy Boondoggle of Burning Trees as Carbon Neutral

    Please consider Exploring the Massive Clean Energy Boondoggle of Burning Trees as Carbon Neutral

    To the shock of everyone with any semblance of common sense, we are clearcutting forests and burning the trees based on the idea the process is carbon neutral.

    Meanwhile, President Biden is sucking up to Venezuela so that it will pump more oil. Note that Venezuela’s oil is sour, loaded with sulphur.

    For details, please see President Biden Makes Oil Overtures to Venezuelan Dictator Nicolás Maduro

    Hypocrisy, You Bet

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    President Biden, the UN, and the Climate Lobby Seek to Spread More Fossil Fuel Misery

    Also consider President Biden, the UN, and the Climate Lobby Seek to Spread More Fossil Fuel Misery

    Team Biden in Action

    On November 12, president Biden’s climate ambassador, John Kerry, made this statement:

    “It’s a well-known fact that the United States and many other countries will not establish…some sort of legal structure that is tied to compensation or liability. That’s just not happening.” 

    Guess What Happened 

    In case you are wondering about the Secretary-General’s statement regarding a loss and damage fund, John Kerry signed up for it at the conference.

    What about solar energy roof tiles?

    I am glad you asked. President Biden is more concerned over a couple hundred manufacturing than promoting solar energy. Tariffs have driven up the costs that few want to install the roof tiles. 

    Where we will get the metals for batteries and how we get clean energy from the desert to Chicago cheaply are both mysteries. The attempt adds to inflation. 

    And China is going gangbusters building coal-powered electricity plants.

    Reparations, bribes, inept tariff policies, sucking up to Venezuela, and mandating policies that are not close to being ready are all part of the Biden-AOC-Warren packages.

    Hype or not, fusion is a far better bet on fixing the problem than the misguided stupidity of politicians and activists.

    *  *  *

    Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 19:25

  • Incoming GOP House Rep Apparently Fabricated His Life Story
    Incoming GOP House Rep Apparently Fabricated His Life Story

    Incoming Republican New York Congressman George Santos appears to have presented voters and the public at large with a personal history that’s positively riddled with falsehoods, according to a damning exposé from The New York Times. 

    For starters, Santos claimed that he earned degrees in economics and finance from Baruch College and New York University. However, when the Times inquired, neither school was able to locate any record of this attendance.  

    New York Congressman-Elect George Santos won the first-ever congressional election featuring a clash of openly gay men (Mary Altaffer/AP via NBC News)

    After securing his degrees, he supposedly became “an associate asset manager” in Citigroup’s real estate division, according to a biography on his campaign website. A Citi spokeswoman not only told the Times that Citi couldn’t confirm he’d worked there, but that his claimed job title wasn’t familiar either — and Citi sold its asset management division in 2005.  

    His shiny campaign resumé also included a claimed stint at Goldman Sachs. If you’ve picked up on the pattern, you’ve already guessed — correctly — that Goldman Sachs couldn’t find any record of his employment.  

    Santos said he was the founder and leader of “Friends of Pets United,” a supposed tax-exempt organization. While the Times found some traces of the organization on Facebook, the IRS found no indication it held tax-exempt status, and neither New York nor New Jersey officials could find records of such a registered charity. 

    It just keeps gets better: Friends of Pets United held a joint $50-a-head fundraiser, but the event’s beneficiary says she never received a dime — just excuses from Santos on why the money wasn’t coming through.  

    During the same period as the purported pet philanthropy, Santos was the subject of an eviction suit, where was accused of owing $2,250 in rent. Two years later — in 2017 — he was again the target of an eviction claim, this time allegedly owing more than $10,000. Eviction was ordered, and Santos was fined more than $12,000.  

    Santos (right) and his fiancé (Instagram via Star Observer) 

    In an apparent case of massive projection, in 2021 Santos claimed he was a landlord suffering from the consequences of New York’s eviction moratorium. The Times couldn’t find any records of his property ownership. 

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    Santos also reported having received a $750,000 salary and a million to five million dollars in dividends over the last two years — from the “Devolder Organization,” a mysterious entity with no public website or LinkedIn presence. During the same time, he lent more than $700,000 to his campaign. 

    Santos has portrayed Devolder as his “family’s firm” that managed $80 million:

    “He described it as a capital introduction consulting company, a type of boutique firm that serves as a liaison between investment funds and deep-pocketed investors. But Mr. Santos’s disclosures did not reveal any clients, an omission three election law experts said could be problematic if such clients exist.” — New York Times  

    Probing his past in Brazil, the Times also unearthed criminal charges against Santos — and a confession — over an incident in which “he stole the checkbook of a man his mother was caring for.” 

    The openly gay Santos claimed that his company “lost four employees” in the June 2016 Pulse nightclub shooting. He didn’t specify the company, and the Times couldn’t find any overlap between profiles of the 49 dead and any of the companies Santos claimed to have worked for. (Like many others, he implied the assault on the Orlando club was an attack on the LGBT community — reinforcing a persistent myth about the shooter’s target selection.)  

    The 34-year old Santos won his northern Long Island and Northeast Queens district by 8 points, in a mild upset in an historic, first-ever congressional tussle between two openly gay men. 

    In a statement tweeted by Santos on Monday afternoon, his lawyer said it’s “no surprise that Congressman-elect Santos has enemies at The New York Times who are attempting to smear his good name with these defamatory allegations.”  

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    Icing on the cake: The lawyer attributes to Churchill a quote he apparently never said. 

    Santos faces more than just humiliation. If he’s found to have knowingly and willfully made material omissions or misrepresentations on his House financial disclosures, he faces penalties of up to $250,000 and five years in prison. 

    He could well face a House ethics investigation, but the timing of that seems to make it likely that, barring his resignation, he’ll be sworn in in January.  

    Just hours after the Times notified him about their pending report, looking like a man thrashing around for a lifeline, Santos posted a resounding endorsement of Kevin McCarthy, who’s in the midst of a tumultuous drive to become Speaker of the House.

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 19:05

  • Student Debt: It Is And Always Has Been A Personal Choice
    Student Debt: It Is And Always Has Been A Personal Choice

    Authored by Joyce Humber-Faison via The Mises Institute,

    The Supreme Court of the United States will hear plaintiff and defendant oral arguments for Biden v. Nebraska in February 2023. That case will determine whether the Biden administration has the constitutional authority to forgive student loan debt and thereby make taxpayers responsible for the debts that students have incurred.

    This past year President Biden announced that his administration would forgive federal student loans. According to the Congressional Budget Office student debt forgiveness would cost taxpayers $400 billion. Taxpayers are already taxed for public schools and for the public universities within their states and, in some instances, within their cities. Therefore, there is no reason that they should assume the loan debt that students chose to amass by attending colleges that have tuitions that they cannot afford.

    Each of the fifty states has public universities. The tuitions for in-state residents at the public institutions of higher education are lower than the tuitions at private institutions. In all states, out-of-state residents pay higher tuitions than in-state residents. For instance, in New York State there are forty-five public universities (SUNY), and there are twenty-five public colleges in New York City (CUNY). The undergraduate tuition at CUNY is $305 per credit. The average SUNY undergraduate tuition per credit is $295 for in-state residents.

    However, in some instances based on residency, grades, family income, and other criteria, tuitions are free at CUNY and SUNY. If some New York State or New York City high school students choose to attend public colleges out-of-state or to enroll in private universities in New York where the average private college tuition is $929.75 per credit, they will pay tuition rates that are higher than if they were to enroll in CUNY or SUNY, even if they did not meet the standards for free tuition

    Tuitions at private institutions are generally higher than out-of-state or in-state public college tuitions. During the first two years, all colleges, whether public or private institutions, have the same core liberal arts, mathematics, and science classes; for the next two years, students take electives and requisite courses for their majors. Courses, taken during the freshman and sophomore years can be transferred from public to private colleges and conversely within the same state. Interstate course transfer acceptance is discretionary. A three-credit English composition class carries a higher cost at a private college than the same course at a public college. A student chooses to pay more tuition for the same course at one college than at another college.

    In order not to incur debt, students should attend colleges based on their economic comfort level; however, some do not. Many students choose to attend colleges that neither they nor their parents can afford. Both they and their parents accrue loans that will take years to pay off. Loan repayment, depending on the amount borrowed, can take anywhere from ten to thirty years to repay.

    Students’ lives are curtailed by those loans. Where and in what types of residences they will live, when and if they will marry, and when and if they will have children are instances in which student loan debt is the prevailing predicate. Choice then is the underlying economic catalyst for students’ debts,

    To curtail or to eliminate debt, students have the option to attend in-state public universities or private universities that do not charge tuition. In all cases students should be very cautious when considering any tuition-charging private institution.

    Some television pundits proffer the opinion that tuitions increase because the federal government continues to hold student debt and that while students accumulate large debt balances colleges will increase tuitions. However, those pundits forget that debt is the choice of students, and, as with any purchase, economic prudence in college choice is essential. Students wrap themselves in debt because they choose not to wait for their self-sufficiency; their debt is a choice and should not be the burden of taxpayers. Caveat emptor.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 18:45

  • Zelensky To Address Congress In Person Wednesday As $45BN More In Aid Set For Approval
    Zelensky To Address Congress In Person Wednesday As $45BN More In Aid Set For Approval

    The D.C.-based online political news daily Punch Bowl has revealed late Tuesday that Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky is set to address Congress on Wednesday, but this time in person, as his plane has also possibly already arrived in the US.

    It’s believed the special address is the hidden subject of a letter circulated to lawmakers by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday which encouraged them to “be present for a very special focus on Democracy Wednesday night.”

    His appearance on Capitol Hill would mark the first time since the Feb.24 Russian invasion that he’s left Ukraine. He’s likely to use the occasion to “thank” lawmakers for proposing a gargantuan omnibus spending package which includes $45 billion in military, economic, and other foreign aid to Ukraine. 

    But without doubt he’ll also quickly pivot to his “asks” – just like the first time he addressed Congress (virtually) on March 16 – which is likely to include another plea for the US military and NATO to “close the skies”, as well as to send more advanced weaponry such as long-range missiles and warplanes.

    Currently there are fears that Russia is planning a large-scale further invasion alongside Belarusian forces, as Putin has been visiting Minsk this week for talks. Ukraine is also struggling to keep power on amid devastating energy infrastructure attacks. 

    If Zelensky does again press for the US to “close the skies” – which would be tantamount to imposing a No Fly Zone (and brining the US directly into war with Russia) – it’s likely to come couched in deeply emotional language, as the first speech to Congress was. 

    Zelensky’s March address, it should be recalled, was laced with American patriotic references from Pearl Harbor to memories of 9/11 to Martin Luther King Jr, and even an appeal for Americans to “remember” the heroism and leadership etched on Mt. Rushmore. The speech further had a consistent theme that Russia had not just attacked Ukraine’s people and values – but that it was attack on “basic human values” and thus the West itself.

    Zelensky received a standing ovation at the end of the March virtual address to Congress.

    Likely Wednesday’s new in-person appearance will include themes of suffering during Christmas, given on Tuesday top Ukrainian officials alleged Russia is attempting to “steal” Christmas and impose maximum levels of suffering on the population. Lawmakers will meanwhile likely vote on the massive omnibus bill, which includes the tens of billions of dollars for Ukraine, within days after Zelensky makes his speech.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 18:25

  • DOJ Subpoenaed Google To Access Personal Info Of House Staffers During Russia-Trump Probe: Report
    DOJ Subpoenaed Google To Access Personal Info Of House Staffers During Russia-Trump Probe: Report

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

    The Department of Justice (DOJ) allegedly used grand jury subpoenas to secretly access personal information belonging to House Republican staffers – including email communications, residential addresses, and cellphone data – while Republican lawmakers simultaneously worked to obtain evidence that the FBI’s investigation into the now disproven Trump–Russia collusion narrative was false, according to a report by Just the News.

    The subpoenas were obtained by Just the News, and were issued at a time when then-chair of the House Intelligence Committee Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) struggled to get the FBI and DOJ to hand over documents to the committee while he sought to establish that the allegations made against former President Donald Trump were being driven by the infamous Steele dossier.

    Research in the Steele dossier was paid for by the Hillary Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee and commissioned by Washington-based private intelligence firm Fusion GPS.

    The subpoenas (pdf) show that the DOJ requested that tech giant Google hand over documents containing the personal information of at least two top House Intelligence Committee staffers in November 2017: former Intelligence Committee senior counsel Kash Patel, and another unnamed staffer.

    Google responded to the subpoena requests by Dec. 5, 2017, roughly a month after they were issued, according to the publication.

    Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) holds a copy of the Steele Dossier during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on Capitol Hill on Dec. 11, 2019. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

    Google Notifies GOP Staffers of Information Request

    Just the News reports that the subpoenas have only recently come to light because Google, in line with its five-year policy, informed the former committee staffers that their records had been handed over to law enforcement.

    Google’s policy regarding government agencies requesting it disclose user information states: “We carefully review each request to make sure it satisfies applicable laws. If a request asks for too much information, we try to narrow it, and in some cases, we object to producing any information at all.”

    The tech giant noted that it will send an email to the user account before disclosing personal information to the relevant government agency, although this is not the case when “legally prohibited under the terms of the request.”

    The subpoena for Patel shows that the FBI and DOJ requested a string of information from Google, including subscriber names, screen names, and user names; addresses including mailing addresses, residential addresses, business addresses, and email addresses, local and long-distance telephone connection records, records of session times and durations, length of service and types of service utilized, and personal telephone numbers.

    It also requested information pertaining to the “means and source of payment for such service (including any credit card or bank account number) and billing records.”

    The subpoena issued to the other unnamed former staffer requested the same, according to Just the News. It is unclear from the subpoena who was leading the investigation into Patel and the other staffer.

    Former President Donald Trump speaks with EpochTV’s Kash Patel at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla., on Jan. 31, 2022. (The Epoch Times)

    Patel was personally recruited by Nunes to spearhead the investigation into the FBI’s handling of the Russia–Trump probe.

    In an interview with The Epoch Times in March 2021, Patel said:

    “It would be beneficial to the American public for the FBI to disclose who they surveilled in this Trump orbit, and more importantly, how.”

    “The lengths they were willing to go just to try to get a narrative to become true—which is never the purpose of an investigation at the Department of Justice—you’re supposed to follow an investigation and see if there’s a crime. You’re not supposed to try to come up with a political narrative and have the ends justify the means,” Patel added.

    Despite winning the election over Clinton in 2016, Trump was dogged by the collusion allegations for years after.

    The former president went on to sue Clinton, Steele, and several other Democrats in March 2022, claiming they carried out a plot to “weave a false narrative” that he was colluding with Russian actors.

    The lawsuit was thrown out by U.S. District Judge Donald Middlebrooks, an appointee of former President Bill Clinton, in September, with the judge stating that it “does not establish that Plaintiff is entitled to any relief” and that the claims presented in it “are not warranted under existing law.”

    The Epoch Times has contacted the Department of Justice for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 18:05

  • Star Of Body-Positivity Show Dead From Heart Failure At Age 37
    Star Of Body-Positivity Show Dead From Heart Failure At Age 37

    The body positivity movement, at least in the case of women, has been highly promoted by every area of the entertainment media and among social justice activists based on a singular claim:  You can be healthy at any size (HAES).  

    The claim has inspired numerous efforts to normalize obesity in American society as not only socially acceptable but also medically acceptable.  While political activism in science is nothing new and has been present in everything from climate change rhetoric to pandemic response, fat positivity disinformation in scientific observation is perhaps the most egregious and widespread.  It attempts to ignore or dismiss decades of studies on the negative effects of obesity and asserts that being grossly overweight has minimal or no health consequences.  

    This argument is often debunked by the very people that tend to promote it and encourage it, as they die incredibly young and from health problems that are usually reserved for the elderly.  

    Jamie Lopez, star of the body positivity-based television show ‘Super Sized Salon’, was an advocate of a “beauty at any size’ philosophy, more so than a health at any weight ideal.  However, social justice proponents often held up her example as justification for the HAES lifestyle.  She is now dead, suffering from heart failure at age 37.

    To be fair to Lopez, she did attempt to lose weight, dropping over 400 pounds in a year. 

    But, going from 800 pounds to 400 pounds is still not enough to prevent the myriad of health problems associated with obesity.  Undoubtedly, body positivity proponents will try to gloss over her cause of death, but the fact remains that health and weight are indelibly intertwined. 

    While “beauty” might be treated as socially subjective by some people (studies show beauty concepts are actually biologically ingrained), health standards are not subjective. 

    Gluttony has long been a despised habit within almost all cultures for a reason – It is a sign of a lack of discipline as well as a precursor to societal decline, and, it is a sure trigger for an early demise.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 12/20/2022 – 17:45

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Dec 20

Today’s News 20th December 2022

  • Has American Democracy Been A Hallucination For Nearly 60 Years?
    Has American Democracy Been A Hallucination For Nearly 60 Years?

    Authored by Roger L. Simon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Call it a democracy, call it a democratic republic, call it a constitutional republic, call it anything you want – it doesn’t really matter what America is if there is truth to what Tucker Carlson was reporting the other night via a source who had “direct knowledge” of still-hidden documents concerning the Kennedy assassination, implicating the CIA.

    If indeed the CIA was in any way involved in the assassination of JFK on Nov. 22, 1963, then anything that has happened in the public sphere in our country since that day has basically been a hallucination created by an intelligence agency far deeper than most of us—certainly me, since I was never much given to conspiracy theories—ever imagined.

    The affairs of the day—RNC chief Ronna McDaniel revealed to be a profligate spender on her own luxury travel, not on Republican candidates; Donald Trump releasing self-aggrandizing NFT pseudo-art as a fundraiser (rest in peace, Johannes Vermeer); even Elon Musk’s exposure of the multiple mendacious censoring creeps behind Twitter, although that has an eerie similarity—pale by comparison to CIA involvement and, therefore, massive coverup for decades in the JFK assassination.

    President-elect John F. Kennedy and Jacqueline Kennedy pose at Georgetown University Hospital in Washington with their son, John F. Kennedy Jr., following a baptism for the infant on Dec. 8, 1960. (AP Photo)

    That former CIA director Mike Pompeo declined to appear on Carlson’s show to discuss this is not insignificant. We all know about 51 intelligence officials—John Brennan and others who fallaciously claimed two years ago the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation. They have to have known otherwise. Now this?

    Why are 3 percent of the Warren Commission documents on the assassination still being hidden after those nearly 60 years with all the major players dead, if not to hide something of serious importance from the American public?

    It’s time to reconsider Oliver Stone’s “JFK” that, though I admired Oliver’s filmmaking, I originally thought to be a crackpot.

    The Kennedy assassination has special ramifications for me because it occurred on my 20th birthday. I was a Dartmouth student at the time and drove down to spend the weekend with my girlfriend at Skidmore (Saratoga Springs, New York) and sat in a motel room stunned and mesmerized watching Jack Ruby shoot Lee Harvey Oswald, live on the black and white television.

    I cannot remember seeing anything more inexplicable in my life. How could this have been allowed to happen only hours after the assassination? In retrospect, it becomes even more incredible. In a certain sense, I now feel that most of my adult life, what I have thought was real, has been erased.

    Although most of us of a “certain age” have our own personal stories, that’s the relatively minor part. Historically, for our country at large, the Kennedy assassination was a disaster. It led to the ascendance of Lyndon Johnson and his “Great Society” social programs.

    What actually occurred because of these programs was the not-so-gradual destruction of the black family, the women having been financially induced via handouts to marry the state instead of the men who normally would have been their husbands. The statistics on the decline of the black family and the rise of single-parent households are well known, as are the results that the black community and the rest of us live through on a daily basis. What becomes of a man, black or white, who no longer has the responsibility of being a father? LBJ was in many ways the godfather of Black Lives Matter, not to mention the hugely sad violence in the streets of our biggest cities, most notably Chicago.

    If all this is true, the question becomes how do we get out of this hallucination that is more powerful than, though not unrelated to, the mass formation psychosis described by the Belgian academic Mathias Desmet.

    To begin with, we need the full information, every document, and we need it now. Without the public being able to review that last 3 percent we can go no further. We should be calling for that—loudly.

    The Everly Brothers perhaps put it best, although in another context.

    “Wake up, little Susie, wake up
    We’ve both been sound asleep
    Wake up little Susie and weep
    The movie’s over, it’s four o’clock
    And we’re in trouble deep.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 23:40

  • How Much Prize Money Do World Cup Champions Win?
    How Much Prize Money Do World Cup Champions Win?

    Argentina has won the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 and is taking home the top prize of $42 million in earnings, marking a new record for the greatest sum of money FIFA has ever awarded to a team.

    In second place comes France, who lost in a narrow head-to-head ending in penalties, and is taking home $30 million.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, the tournament’s prize earnings have skyrocketed over the past forty years.

    Infographic: How Much Prize Money Do World Cup Champions Win? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Where the top winnings were just $2.2 million for the ‘82 champions in Spain, the sum climbed fairly steadily to $8 million in Japan/South Korea in 2002, before more than doubling to $20 million for the 2006 tournament held in Germany. Pay packets have continued to grow since that date, with 2022 offering up $4 million more than the Russia 2018 World Cup.

    The championship does not only offer money to the top two teams, however.

    According to data collated by Sporting News, FIFA allocated a total of $440 million in prize money for this year’s World Cup. Third place was awarded $27 million, followed by $25 million for fourth place, $17 million for the quarterfinals, $13 million for the round of 16 and finally $9 million for participation in the group stages.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 23:20

  • 'Walk Away' Founder Brandon Straka Sues MSNBC Hosts For Defamation Over False Statements
    ‘Walk Away’ Founder Brandon Straka Sues MSNBC Hosts For Defamation Over False Statements

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Two MSNBC hosts have been sued for making false statements about a man who pleaded guilty and was sentenced for taking part in the events of Jan. 6, 2021.

    Brandon Straka, founder of the #WalkAway Campaign, speaks at the CPAC convention in National Harbor, Md., on Feb. 28, 2020. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

    Chris Hayes and Ari Melber, the hosts, committed defamation when they made the statements on-air, Brandon Straka says in the new complaint.

    Straka, a Democrat-turned-Republican, pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct. In exchange, a slew of other charges were dropped, including impeding a law enforcement officer during a civil disorder.

    Hayes, on his MSNBC show on Dec. 17, 2021, claimed that many people associated with former President Donald Trump “appear to have been smart enough not to commit the Federal crime of storming the Capitol live on television.”

    “Brandon Straka is the exception,” Hayes said.

    Hayes also quoted Straka as saying during the tumult at the Capitol, “Take it away from him. Take the shield!” And Hayes also claimed that Straka had broken into the Capitol.

    The statements are false because Straka did not commit the federal crime of storming the Capitol, did not utter the supposed quotation, and never entered the Capitol building, the new defamation complaint states.

    The evidence to support the case includes a statement of offense from an FBI agent, which says clearly states that Straka was on Capitol grounds but did not enter the Capitol. The plea agreement also says Straka was on Capitol grounds but does not say he went inside the building.

    “Comparing the Hayes Statements to the truth, it is beyond peradventure that the Statements are materially false,” Straka’s complaint states.

    The documents do say that Straka uttered “take it, take it,” but not the full quote attributed to him by Hayes.

    Melber, meanwhile, talked about Straka during a segment of “The Beat with Ari Melber” on Oct. 19.

    Melber, during an interview, with Straka’s image on screen, said that Straka “was convicted in connection with the January 6 insurrection” and “was found to have been trying to help attack police officers.”

    According to the plea agreement, Straka recorded people trying to take a U.S. Capitol Police officer’s shield but did not participate in the action. The agreement was for a guilty plea for a single charge, disorderly conduct on the Capitol grounds.

    Melber also claimed: “His name is Brandon Straka. He confessed. He confessed to being guilty. He was found to [have been] helping attack police.”

    “The Melber Statements are materially false because Straka did not confess and was not found by any Court to have helped attack police officers or to have attempted an attack on any police officer,” the new complaint states. “Indeed, the public record, reviewed by MSNBC and Melber prior to publication, demonstrates beyond cavil that Straka did not engage in any acts of violence or encourage anyone to commit violence on January 6, 2021. Rather, he was filming events outside the east side of the Capitol in a journalistic capacity.”

    Damages

    The false statements caused damages to Straka, his lawyers said, referencing the recent verdicts against InfoWars founder Alex Jones.

    “As was true in the Alex Jones cases MSNBC, Hayes and Melber’s actions caused Straka to be inundated with threats and subject to intense harassment and hate messages,” they said. “Invitations to appear on television and podcasts and to participate in events went cold due to the toxicity of Defendants’ false Statements. Straka suffered insult, embarrassment, humiliation, mental anguish, injury to his reputation, loss of income and career damage.”

    Melber’s statements were made during an interview with Matt Schlapp, the chair of the Conservative Political Action Conference, an annual event where Straka has spoken a number of times. Melber “intentionally poisoned the opinion of an important and powerful colleague of Straka,” the complaint states, adding later that “MSNBC and Melber deliberately attempted to end Brandon’s career and destroy Brandon’s relationships with high-profile political figures.”

    The statements were also made to millions of followers on Twitter, and to more people on YouTube, the complaint notes.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 23:00

  • BoJ Sparks Market Chaos With Huge 'Yield Curve Control' Adjustment
    BoJ Sparks Market Chaos With Huge ‘Yield Curve Control’ Adjustment

    The Bank of Japan shocked markets tonight.

    After leaving policy rates unchanged, the ‘easiest’ bank in the world decided to dramatically modify its so-called Yield Curve Control framework and increase the quantity of government bonds it will buy each month (while the rest of the world is doing the opposite).

    The increase in range is huge (from -0.5% to +0.5% in yields). Thus, realistically this is a tightening policy move allowing long-rates to rise from 25bps (the prior YCC limit) to 50bps (the current YCC limit)…

    The YCC adjustment is being reported as a mechanism to encourage better functioning in the bond market (where barely a bond changes hands nowadays). The BOJ says it made the change as:

    “the functioning of bond markets has deteriorated, particularly in terms of relative relationships among interest rates of bonds with different maturities and arbitrage relationships between spot and future markets… If these market conditions persists, this could have a negative impact on financial conditions.”

    The BoJ also increased its bond purchases to JPY9 trillion per month for January through March.

    Bear in mind that the share of Japanese government bonds held by the Bank of Japan has topped 50% on a market value basis for the first time, new data showed Monday.

    As one might expect, Cash JGBs didn’t budge on the news.

    Interestingly, despite the ‘easing’ implied by the JGB buying increase, the JPY strengthened against the dollar (because with a wider/higher band for the 10Y yield, theoretically the BoJ will have to buy fewer bonds to keep it within their limit). The JPY is now at its strongest since August.

    Until, of course the next depressionary collapse.

    So the bottom line is that The BoJ will allow 10Y to rise to 0.50% from 0.25% but in order to make the transition as painless as possible, it will increase bond purchases to Y9 Trillion from Y7.3 Trillion per month.

    This will basically remove the YCC kink in the JGB yield curve…

    And sure enough, 10Y JGB yields have instantly exploded higher to their highest since 2015…

    JGB Futures trading has been halted on the Osaka Exchange.

    Japanese bank stocks are soaring on the increased outlook for their NIMs…

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    Capital Economics offers some clarifications as traders comes to terms with WTF Kuroda just did…

    There was nothing in the statement that would suggest that this decision heralds a wholesale tightening of monetary policy.

    For one thing, the bank’s assessment of current economic conditions as well as its outlook over coming quarters was little changed from the October meeting.

    If anything, the downgrade to the bank’s view on external demand suggests that it is getting increasingly worried about the strength of the recovery.

    Most importantly, the bank reiterated that it expects short-term and long-term policy rates to remain at their present or lower levels.

    Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank, warned about taking these initial kneejerk moves as indicative of anything:

    “FX markets seem to want to take it as BOJ’s pivot, which I do not think so.” 

    The BoJ’s dramatic adjustment to its yield-curve control framework could reflect policymakers’ preference for a stronger yen, according to National Australia Bank.

    “The widening of the band has been framed as a move to improve market functionality, but implicitly one could argue the bank now has a preference for a stronger yen (or at a minimum a distaste for further yen weakness),” Rodrigo Catril, the bank’s Sydney-based strategist says.

    “On face value the YCC announcement reinforces the view that the BOJ willingness to wait for the right type of inflation does have limits.”

    This action by The BoJ has sparked chaos in other markets with US Treasury yields spiking…

    As Bloomberg’s Yuki Masujima said:

    “The implications go far beyond Japan – with the BOJ – the last major holdout in a global monetary tightening shift (with the exception of China) — now letting the benchmark yield trade higher than before, the shock will echo across global financial markets.”

    Bitcoin has spiked (likely on the rise in BOJ QE – which is actually offset by the BOJ ‘allowing’ rates to rise, thus tighten)…

    Gold jumped back above $1800…

    And US equity markets are tumbling…

    …and just as liquidity evaporates for the Xmas break across global markets.

    The governor had repeatedly stuck to a resolutely dovish stance by stressing the need for stimulus until stronger wage growth takes place, ruling out the possibility the BOJ will take action against the yen’s slump.

    He had also characterized any widening of the movement band around the yield target as equivalent to a rate hike, a description that led most economists to believe such a move was still some time away.

    Or maybe that was Kuroda’s cunning plan after all – offer no hint at all of this and then drop it during one of the most illiquid times of day during one of the most illiquid weeks of the year, so the effect is immediate – like ripping off a band-aid.

    Presumably, the smart chaps in the BOJ believe they can allow the yield to jump and traders will happily let it rest there at 50bps. Of course that won’t happen and Kuroda’s successor will be forced to buy ever increasing quantities of JGBs to maintain the 50bps yield upper band.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 22:23

  • Federal Judge To Block "Tyrannical" California Gun Law Provision
    Federal Judge To Block “Tyrannical” California Gun Law Provision

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

    A federal judge said he will block a “tyrannical” provision in an incoming California gun law because it would have the “chilling effect” of discouraging people from challenging the statute in court.

    Judge Roger Benitez said in a San Diego courtroom on Dec. 16 that he would soon issue an injunction halting part of a state law scheduled to take effect on Jan. 1, according to The Associated Press. The offending provision would require those who fight the state’s gun laws to pay the government’s legal fees should they lose in court and was heavily promoted by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat with presidential ambitions.

    The case, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of California, is Miller v. Bonta, court file 22-cv-1446. The lawsuit is one of many now pending in courts across the country after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled this past June that individuals have a constitutional right to carry firearms in public for self-defense.

    The so-called loser-pays requirement would produce a “chilling effect” that would hinder state residents from suing to vindicate their legal rights because they would fear having to pay potentially huge lawyers’ tabs, Benitez said, agreeing with Second Amendment advocates.

    “I can’t think of anything more tyrannical,” said Benitez, who was appointed by former President George W. Bush.

    Benitez previously ruled against California laws targeting gun ownership. His defense of the Second Amendment has earned him the nickname “St. Benitez” among gun rights activists.

    In June 2021, the judge found that California’s Assault Weapons Control Act of 1989, which prohibited so-called assault weapons such as the popular AR-15 rifle in the state, ran afoul of the Second Amendment. Weeks later the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit put his ruling on hold. And in March 2019, Benitez found that the state’s ban on large-capacity magazines included in Proposition 63 was unconstitutional.

    In the case at hand, the judge said he would not prevent the rest of the statute from coming into force, leaving intact provisions that prohibit the sale of certain so-called assault weapons and a ban on guns lacking serial numbers.

    The California gun law relies on a novel enforcement mechanism inspired by a Texas law enacted last year that crowdsourced abortion enforcement, giving individuals the right to sue over alleged violations of the state’s fetal-heartbeat abortion law. The law allows, for example, for someone who helped a woman obtain an unlawful abortion by driving her to a clinic to be sued.

    Newsom argues the Texas abortion law is unconstitutional but says if the U.S. Supreme Court upholds it, then his state will rely on the same enforcement mechanism to target Second Amendment protections.

    The U.S. Supreme Court refused a request to block the Texas law and on Dec. 10, 2021, issued a complex procedural ruling in Whole Woman’s Health v. Jackson, remanding the case to a lower court. Then in June of this year, the high court overturned Roe v. Wade, the 1973 precedent that held abortion was a constitutional right, leading to a flurry of activity in state legislatures and legal challenges to abortion laws in courts across the nation.

    In court on Dec. 16, Benitez chided lawyers for the state of California who said the state does not intend to enforce the legal fees rules unless the Texas law survives legal scrutiny.

    “We’re not in a kindergarten sandbox. It’s not about, ‘Mommy he did this to me so I should be able to do this to him,’” Benitez reportedly said.

    The Epoch Times reached out repeatedly to both sides for comment over the weekend.

    Bradley Benbrook and Stephen Duvernay, attorneys for the California gun law challengers, and lawyers for the state, Elizabeth K. Watson and Thomas A. Willis, did not reply as of press time. The California Gun Rights Foundation, which is fighting the law, also did not reply to a request for comment.

    But lawyer Joshua Dale, who represents a San Diego area gun club that is involved in the lawsuit, told Benitez the law would put undue pressure on would-be litigants.

    “I’m terrified of this law,” Dale said in court, according to the AP.

    “It would be absolutely devastating to pay the state’s attorney fees. I’ve got kids. I’ve got a mortgage. I could never pay $50,000 or $100,000 without emptying my 401(k) account.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 22:20

  • THE TWITTER FILES: How FBI Primed Execs With "Russian Disinformation" Disinformation Ahead Of Hunter Biden Bombshell
    THE TWITTER FILES: How FBI Primed Execs With “Russian Disinformation” Disinformation Ahead Of Hunter Biden Bombshell

    In the latest episode of ‘THE TWITTER FILES,’ journalist Michael Shellenberger reveals “How the FBI & intelligence community discredited factual information about Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings both after and *before* The New York Post revealed the contents of his laptop on October 14, 2020.”

    Continued…

    The story begins in December 2019 when a Delaware computer store owner named John Paul (J.P.) Mac Isaac contacts the FBI about a laptop that Hunter Biden had left with him

    On Dec 9, 2019, the FBI issues a subpoena for, and takes, Hunter Biden’s laptop.

    https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/

    By Aug 2020, Mac Isaac still had not heard back from the FBI, even though he had discovered evidence of criminal activity. And so he emails Rudy Giuliani, who was under FBI surveillance at the time. In early Oct, Giuliani gives it to @nypost

    Smoking-gun email reveals how Hunter Biden introduced Ukrainian businessman to VP dad

    Shortly before 7 pm ET on October 13, Hunter Biden’s lawyer, George Mesires, emails JP Mac Isaac.

    Hunter and Mesires had just learned from the New York Post that its story about the laptop would be published the next day.

    7. At 9:22 pm ET (6:22 PT), FBI Special Agent Elvis Chan sends 10 documents to Twitter’s then-Head of Site Integrity, Yoel Roth, through Teleporter, a one-way communications channel from the FBI to Twitter.

    8. The next day, October 14, 2020, The New York Post runs its explosive story revealing the business dealings of President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter. Every single fact in it was accurate.

    thread#showTweet” data-controller=”thread” data-screenname=”ShellenbergerMD” data-tweet=”1604876064450260994″ dir=”auto” id=”tweet_9″>9. And yet, within hours, Twitter and other social media companies censor the NY Post article, preventing it from spreading and, more importantly, undermining its credibility in the minds of many Americans.

    Why is that? What, exactly, happened?

    thread#showTweet” data-controller=”thread” data-screenname=”ShellenbergerMD” data-tweet=”1604876064450260994″ dir=”auto”> 
    thread#showTweet” data-controller=”thread” data-screenname=”ShellenbergerMD” data-tweet=”1604877235579912192″ dir=”auto” id=”tweet_10″>10. On Dec 2, @mtaibbi described the debate inside Twitter over its decision to censor a wholly accurate article.

    Since then, we have discovered new info that points to an organized effort by the intel community to influence Twitter & other platforms

    15. Indeed, Twitter executives *repeatedly* reported very little Russian activity. E.g., on Sept 24, 2020, Twitter told FBI it had removed 345 “largely inactive” accounts “linked to previous coordinated Russian hacking attempts.” They “had little reach & low follower accounts.”

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    And some thoughts from the peanut gallery:

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 22:11

  • Spike In Fed Discount Window Usage Hints At Looming Bank Crisis
    Spike In Fed Discount Window Usage Hints At Looming Bank Crisis

    Six months after the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening started, the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk by just over $400 billion, less than 10% of its massive expansion in the post-covid era when it nearly doubled in just days $4 trillion to $7 trillion, and then grew another $2 trillion over the next year.

    Digging a bit deeper into the balance sheet composition, we find that high-powered money-equivalents, i.e., reserves, are just over $3.1 trillion, while the far more inert reverse repos (which are a byproduct of extremely excessive liquidity creation and/or counterparty and risk avoidance) are a more modest $2.13 trillion…

    … with reserves declining by $1 trillion in the past year, as reverse repos actually increased by half that number.

    And while one can debate the nuances of an $8.5 trillion Fed balance sheet, or the reserve/reverse ratio relationship until one is blue in the face, one thing is certain: now that the world has been in an “ample reserve” framework since the launch of QE1, there are certain things that are not supposed to happen: one of them is the use of the Fed’s emergency USD swap line. If, however, such an instrument is used, as was the case in mid-October, we can immediately deduce that some bank is suffering a crushing USD-funding squeeze (one whose risk is greater than the risk of being slapped with the stigma of using a FX swap). That’s precisely what happened with Swiss bank giant Credit Suisse, which we subsequently learned was being crushed by an $88 billion bank run, and only the secret backdoor bailout of the SNB and the Fed kept it solvent (preventing a far greater financial crisis).

    Another instrument that should never be used in an ample-reserve world, is the Fed’s Discount Window: this “archaic” secured rescue loan arrangement, one in which banks obtain emergency liquidity from the Fed in exchange for loans, is a legacy of the pre-Lehman era, when its mere usage was enough to spark a terminal bank run for any recipient bank. One can argue that the launch of QE was specifically designed to reduce and/or eliminate the use of the discount window by US banks (after all, the post-2009 tidal wave of Fed-created reserves effectively assures that every US financial institution is swimming in money). That, together with the famous “discount window stigma” effect when the mere speculation one is using emergency loans from the Fed was enough to spark a bank run, is why there were zero discount window borrowings until March 2020 when the entire financial system almost collapse again, yet when a relatively modest $50BN in discount window borrowings forced the Fed to unleash multiple daily multi-trillion repo operations, and hundreds of billions in daily and weekly liquidity injections in the form of QE. Yes, the discount window usage in 2020 quickly faded away but not before the Fed’s balance sheet doubled again, from $4 trillion to $8 trillion.

    The problem is that if one fast forwards to today, the discount window is again being used aggressively, and in the last week was just over $6.2 billion, after peaking at $9.5 billion, two weeks ago, the most since June 2020.

    The spike in Discount Window usage has even stumped JPMorgan whose rates strategist Teresa Ho wrote last Friday (her full must-read thoughts available to pro subs) echoed our thoughts above on the “Ample reserve” framework, noting that “there are still over $3tn of reserves and over $2tn of cash at the Fed’s ON RRP, so in no way does this suggest there are systemic liquidity concerns. Indeed, that wholesale funding rates have remained well-behaved even heading into the final weeks of the year suggests as such”, and yet “it is surprising that in spite of the available amount liquidity in the system, usage at the discount window still increased. Borrowing at the discount window is often seen as a last resort for banks in terms of sourcing funding, and hence there is an implicit stigma associated with it. Whether that stigma is justified or not is an open question.”

    Some more details from JPM:

    This year’s uptick in the discount window is associated with primary credit—available to banks that are in “generally sound financial condition,” with no restrictions on the use of funds borrowed under primary credit according to the Fed. The loan must be collateralized with eligible securities (generally investment grade or AAA for securitized securities) and/or loans (generally performing, to domestic entities only). In March 2020, to encourage the use of the discount window, the Fed narrowed the spread of the primary credit rate relative to the general level of overnight rates and extended the line of credit up to 90 days, prepayable and renewable by the borrower on a daily basis. Since then, the primary credit rate has been set at the upper bound of the fed funds target range.

    So what’s behind the spike in discount window borrowings? According to JPM, there are several theories.

    The first revolves around increases in funding pressures among small banks as QT continues in the background. To that end, it’s possible that, regardless of stigma, to raise liquidity, some small banks are finding rates at the window economically more attractive than either accessing the fed funds market or borrowing from FHLB, particularly if they are able to borrow term at the discount window. Indeed, the primary credit rate was set at 4.0% (pre-FOMC), which was 17bp above EFFR but 30-70bp below where they can borrow in 1m and 3m FHLB advances. Furthermore, JPM notes that the timing of the increase appears to have been somewhat correlated to the crypto market, particularly in November after news of the FTX fallout emerged.

    There is a second plausible theory: this year’s aggressive Fed tightening has generated substantial losses on banks’ securities portfolios. As reflected in AOCI, where changes in the market value of bonds in AFS portfolios are captured, US banks have cumulatively lost ~$770bn YTD (Exhibit 5). These losses, while unrealized, have significantly reduced banks’ equity, and in some cases reduced to a level such that tangible common equity has fallen into negative territory. This is the case particularly among smaller banks. Based on S&P data, JPMorgan found that ~30 banks, most of which have total assets of <$1bn, reported negative tangible common equity as of 3Q22, an increase from 11 banks in 2Q22, and 0 banks in 1Q22.

    Why does this matter?  Well, as JPM explains, FHFA currently has a requirement that directs FHLBs to use tangible equity—which includes unrealized gains and losses on AFS securities—in assessing a bank’s credit worthiness for purposes of issuing advances. In the event that a bank does not meet the required tangible capital levels, it could be denied access to the FHLB advance system unless a primary federal regulator says otherwise. (As a side note, the industry is trying get FHFA to amend the assessment framework from using tangible capital to regulatory capital, which would exclude market swings). As a result, to the extent the small banks need liquidity and they cannot turn to the FHLB system for borrowing, they might have to resort to the discount window for sudden, unexpected liquidity needs.

    Translation: there are ~30 banks that are effectively insolvent and are only kept alive thanks to the Fed’s emergency funding. Whether or not these banks fail, and whether their failure leads to a cascade of adverse events, remains to be seen. Unfortunately, absent a chain of defaults which reveals who the crippled banks are, we won’t know for sure the entities behind the discount window spike until the Fed releases transaction data on the discount window two years later.

    Finally, it is also worth noting that the substantial losses on banks’ securities portfolios – thanks to the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes – are creating not only capital issues, but potential liquidity issues as well. As we have discussed previously, with QT occurring in the background, liquidity is being drained from the system, deposits are declining (albeit predominately at large banks so far), funding pressures are gradually rising, and borrowing costs are increasing.

    To the extent sudden liquidity needs arise, there is a question as to whether banks would have to sell their securities to meet their liquidity needs, which in so doing would negatively impact banks’ capital levels. Also, LCR is calculated based on the market value of banks’ HQLA portfolio as a percentage of their net cash outflows under 30 days. All else equal, losses on banks’ securities portfolios would contribute to a deterioration in LCR (i.e., the numerator shrinks). As a result, banks would have to lever up to increase their HQLA to remain compliant with LCR rules. Here, JPM believe this has been one of the reasons contributing to the rise in FHLB advances this year. That is, banks have been raising liquidity via FHLBs not necessarily because they have lost liquidity and need to replace it, but rather in anticipation of potential liquidity needs in hopes of not having to sell their securities and to maintain/improve their LCRs.

    If all that sounds like a lot of financial jargon, then please ignore it – unless the discount window usage spikes again in coming weeks, it is likely that whatever event prompted one or more banks to quietly demand a bailout from the Fed, will pass. On the other hand, the message sent from the spike in discount window usage is ominous: no matter how one spins it, it suggests that as many as 30 small banks are now insolvent, and could represent the weakest link that – like the relatively small Terra/Luna implosion cascaded to the collapse of FTX and the wholesale deleveraging of the entire crypto ecosystem – leads to an violent and painful deleveraging of the entire US financial system.

    The full must-read JPM note available to pro subs in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 22:00

  • Why Reparations Now?
    Why Reparations Now?

    Authored by Mark Ross via AmericanThinker.com,

    The absurdity of the concept of reparations for slavery, an institution that ended several generations ago, is beyond mind-boggling.  But there’s a blatantly cynical reason for the sudden lurch in that direction: formerly reliable Black voters are now slipping away from the Democrats.  This also explains Biden’s recently expressed profuse generosity towards the nations of sub-Saharan Africa.

    What is also painfully obvious is the lame, demagogic pandering that is the Democrats’ knee-jerk response, especially to a defecting constituency: just throw money at them and that’ll keep ‘em on the reservation.  Never mind the exposure to ridicule attached to redistributing money from people who never owned slaves to people who never were slaves, since the despicable practice was abolished over 150 years ago. 

    “Oh, the wealth and education gap that plagues the inner cities is the enduring legacy of slavery.” 

    Even if this were true, just throwing money at the problem is of particularly dubious benefit.

    The dystopic nature of our inner cities cannot be traced back to slavery.  Modern-day political machines are the culprits. 

    Paying women to have fatherless children; running schools that avoid imparting basic math and literacy skills while lowering the standards for achievement; suppressing police responses to avoid bad optics and litigation… all add up to imposed squalor.  And none of this can be traced back to slavery or any of its aftereffects.

    You may call it the “Trump Effect” or whatever — “working-class” voters have been shifting to the Republican party.  This includes Black folks and other “minorities.”  Nowadays progressive Democrats are mostly appealing to trust-fund-baby treehuggers and other guilty, virtue-signaling middle-class liberals. This is what’s happening.  And Trump didn’t even start it.  Some years ago, Pat Caddell, political advisor to Bill Clinton, bemoaned his perception that the Democrat party had been taken over by an “elite gentry.”  Trump did, however, accelerate the process of blue-collar defection by allowing the economy to fiercely expand and thus embrace many of those stuck on its bottom rungs.

    Another disquieting aspect of the reparations movement is its complete reliance on skin color.  Much like affirmative action, reparations promises to further institutionalize racism — as did Jim Crow laws in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.  This despite the suppressed reality that not all slave owners were white.  Just ask Kamala Harris’s Jamaican father, who freely admitted that his Black ancestors owned Black slaves.  This was further corroborated by my late former neighbor.  Though having been a Tuskegee airman, he admitted that his Hattian ancestors owned slaves.  Ironically, one of the founders of modern environmentalism, John James Audubon, was also Hattian — though of French descent.

    It also so happens that not all slaves were black Africans.  Originally, the British colonists brought in Scots and Irish slaves to fill the labor deficit created by the vastness of America.  These were not indentured slaves who only needed to work off the cost of their passage to achieve their freedom.  They were true chattel: property that was bought and paid for.  However, these northern Europeans were way too susceptible to malaria and proved to not be of much economic value.  A further irony lies in the particular common genetic trait of tropical African natives that allows them to be significantly more resistant to malaria than Europeans — it is also the cause of sickle cell anemia.

    So, should Americans with Scottish and Irish surnames also be entitled to reparations for slavery? 

    Is there any limit to the absurdity to which craven political hacks will stoop to cling to the reins of power?  After all, they cooked up affirmative action ostensibly to nullify whatever lingering damage that was done by previous racism… but instead, they enshrined privilege based on pigmentation. 

    To cap it all off, California has a reparations task force that is supposed to figure everything out by next July 1.  This includes eligibility, amount(s) of payment, etc.  The question of what actual fiscal impact such a splurge will have on a state with a rapidly evaporating tax base simply does not come up. That’s entirely within character for the nincompoops who run states like California. 

    The folks who are having the money thrown at them have no reason to complain and the folks whose money it used to be have little, if any, voice left to complain.  What a country!

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 21:40

  • Investors Eye Reopening Bets Without Buying China
    Investors Eye Reopening Bets Without Buying China

    By Hideyuki Sano, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

    Investors that want to bet on China’s economic reopening but are still concerned about the nation’s geopolitical risks and market volatility are finding better alternatives elsewhere in Asia.  

    The idea is that if Asia-Pacific’s No. 1 economy rebounds, it will also benefit the region’s big exporters to China like South Korea and Taiwan, as well as major commodity producers such as Australia and Indonesia. And investors in those areas won’t have to worry much about China risks such as sudden regulatory crackdowns, the property market’s debt turmoil, and the possibility of escalating military tensions with neighbors.

    “If one assumes the Chinese economy will improve, you can get similar benefits by investing in countries that have close ties with China,” said Hiroshi Matsumoto, senior client portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management. The Swiss asset manager sees Germany in addition to Asian countries as getting a special boost from China opening up again.

    Goldman Sachs says emerging- market equities and commodities, especially copper, are among the largest beneficiaries from China reopening, adjusted for volatility.

    The MSCI Emerging Markets Index may rise to 1,080, a gain of about 13% from the current level, Goldman strategists Dominic Wilson and Vickie Chang estimated in a research note dated Dec. 2. That’s smaller than the potential gain of 17% in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index but it’s more than the 7.6% upside seen for the US S&P 500.

    A reopened China would require more commodity imports to power its massive economic engine, good news for resource-rich countries like Australia and Indonesia. “If China does reopen in a big way, without major headwinds, I think Indonesia and Australia become a lot more attractive,” said Charu Chanana, a senior strategist at Saxo Capital Markets.

    Compared with the wild moves in Chinese shares, Asian equities elsewhere are much less volatile, meaning that investors get better risk-adjusted returns. Three-month implied volatilities for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index stood at 30 while those for the Taiwanese, Korean and Australian benchmarks were 19, 17 and 14 respectively.

    Meeting to set economic policy priorities for 2023, Chinese leaders including President Xi Jinping said restoring and expanding consumption should “take precedence.” That suggests policy makers will take more steps to support the economy, which is facing near-term risks from the latest surges in Covid cases.

    Hopes that China will open its international borders may help tourism-related shares in Asian countries from Japan to Thailand, where Chinese tourists made up for about a quarter to a third of international arrivals. If those travelers return to Thailand sooner than expected, that may help lift the baht by improving the country’s current-account balance, said Nuttachart Mekmasin, analyst at Trinity Securities in Bangkok.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 21:00

  • Texas Power Grid Faces Crucial Moment Ahead Of Single Digit Temperatures
    Texas Power Grid Faces Crucial Moment Ahead Of Single Digit Temperatures

    Forecasters are warning that a potent Arctic airmass could plunge temperatures across Texas to single digits later this week. Temperatures in Texas’s Permian Basin could dip to 25 F by late Friday, risking the potential for freeze-offs that could curtail the flow of natural gas. The blast of cold air comes just 22 months after the early 2021 cold wave that collapsed Lone Star State’s power grid. 

    One weather model via PivitolWeather forecasts single digits in a large swath of Texas on Friday. 

    The North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC), a commission responsible for assessing power risks, warned that cold could stress the electrical grid in Texas. 

    “The effect it can have on generators — and the way demand can rise sharply in cold weather — can lead to load risk,” Mark Olson, a reliability manager at NERC, said, who was quoted by Bloomberg.  

    According to Houston-based NatGas research firm Criterion Research, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) — the state’s grid operator — expects power demand to rise to over 61 gigawatts on Friday, which would come close to summer loads and most prior winter showings. 

    A massive cold stress test for ERCOT appears to be imminent. Here’s more from Criterion: 

    ERCOT formally issued an “Operating Condition Notice (OCN)” ahead of this week’s winter weather that will run from December 22-26. The OCN goes into effect when temperatures fall below 25 degrees for the Austin/San Antonio and DFW areas. ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas cited that “As we monitor weather conditions, we want to assure Texans that the grid is resilient and reliable.”

     ERCOT’s latest load forecast is extreme, with the ISO expecting demand to rise to >61 GW on December 23, which rivals summer loads and most prior winter showings.

    Regional load will push above 50 GW as the front moves in on Thursday, and the demand will be most intense on Friday.

    Currently, wind is projected to reach a 12/22 level of 22 GW before dropping the following day (12/23) to 12 GW and then to 4.5 GW on 12/24.

    If this forecast holds for wind & total load, ERCOT will need its fossil fuel assets to ramp to 45 GW during the peak cold.

    ERCOT’s fossil fuel assets are certainly capable of 45-50 GW in demand, and the upcoming system is only bringing cold weather rather than the winter precipitation we saw during Winter Storm Uri.

    Bitterly cold temperatures in the coming days will test ERCOT’s winterization upgrades since the grid collapse in 2021. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 20:40

  • Bipartisan Bill Would Let Americans Voluntarily Give Up Gun Rights
    Bipartisan Bill Would Let Americans Voluntarily Give Up Gun Rights

    Authored by Emily Miller via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Congress is trying to pass a bill to allow the federal government to pressure people to give up their Second Amendment rights in the name of suicide prevention. At the same time, newly released documents show multiple federal law enforcement agencies have effectively done this to people without congressional approval.

    On Thursday, Gun Owners of America (GOA), put all its evidence online that shows the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has permanently disarmed people. The gun rights group is lobbying on Capitol Hill to stop this practice from being codified.

    Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) in Washington on April 28, 2022. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    Capitol Hill Supports FBI Disarming Program

    The bipartisan bill called the “Preventing Suicide Through Voluntary Firearm Purchase Delay Act” passed the Judiciary Committee last week. It says the FBI would create a new database for people who volunteer to be blocked from buying or possessing a gun. The “delay” in the bill title refers to the period from which the person put themselves into the database and potentially subsequently took themselves out of it.

    The FBI program, which claims it ended in 2019, and the House bill both use a “self-submission” program to make people prohibited who could not be blocked from having a gun under current law. The Brady Law of 1993 created the NICS system of background checks to help enforce the nine prohibited categories of people (from the Gun Control Act of 1968 ) from buying guns.

    The House bill would upend federal background check gun law by making it arbitrary who loses the right to own or buy a gun. Under current law, a person is prohibited from buying or owning a firearm for mental health reasons only due to being adjudicated as mentally defective or involuntarily committed to a mental institution. The House bill makes it so people in this new FBI database who have not experienced these situations would still be committing a federal crime by possessing a gun.

    The Opposition

    “I’d like to make sure this bill in Congress doesn’t become law—lest it be weaponized against the American people,” Aidan Johnston, GOA’s director of federal affairs told The Epoch Times.

    “The very existence of a bill to codify what the FBI was already doing proves the FBI had no authorization from Congress to carry out this program,” said Johnston. The GOA’s released records showing the FBI has forced 23 people to permanently sign away their rights to own a gun, and the agency has still withheld documents in the ongoing Freedom of Information lawsuit.

    “Congress should be punishing those bureaucrats who abused it instead of codifying the program and the unconstitutional behavior,” said Johnston.

    Bipartisan Bill Speeds Through

    The legislation has two Democrat cosponsors—Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.)—and two Republicans. One of the two GOP cosponsors, Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), is not on the Judiciary Committee.

    The other Republican, Ken Buck (R-Colo.), said after a lengthy debate about the problems that he hoped to work with Jaypal to fix the issues in the bill before the vote or in the days following. Since Democrats did not change anything, Buck voted against his own bill. The final vote was 20 to 16 on party lines.

    However, Buck said in the hearing that he will work with Jayapal to rewrite the bill and reintroduce it in the next Congress. A spokesman for Buck declined to comment on the timing of the next steps.

    Constitutional Issues With the Bill

    During the committee markup, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), spoke out about the multiple problems with the bill. Massie pointed out that the major flaw in this proposed law is it wouldn’t just affect the person who opts to lose the right to have a firearm. The bill makes it illegal to give or sell a gun to someone on the FBI’s new “Voluntary Purchase Delay Database.”

    “If my father added his name to this list ten years ago, and he says, ‘Hey Thomas, loan me a gun, I want to go hunting.’”said Massie. “And he seems of sound mind to me. And I loan him a shotgun. Then he goes out in the woods and kills himself, am I now guilty of a federal crime?”

    The Democrats on the committee responded that is “not the intent of the bill.” Massie replied, “What we are marking up is not intent. It’s U.S. code and it’s very precise. People will be convicted based on the language that comes out of here today.”

    Getting Rights Back

    Unlike the FBI program which is permanent, Congress would allow people to remove themselves from the database by requesting it from the Attorney General, which would process after 21 days. Buck said this should be rewritten to be 21 days after the request is submitted instead of when the Department of Justice acknowledged receipt.

    The other way to get out of the system is to petition the Attorney General with a declaration from a mental health professional that the individual does not present a substantial risk of harm to self. That would take effect in 24 hours. Buck said that part had to be rewritten. “I beg anyone on this committee to tell me when the federal government has done anything in 24 hours.”

    Jayapal said she didn’t have a problem fixing the multiple changes Buck suggested. This indicates the bill will be able to move quickly to the Rules Committee and possibly the floor during the next Congress. It is unlikely there will be a vote by the full House in the remaining days of the Democratic-controlled Congress.

    Secret Service and ICE Disarming

    The move on Capitol Hill came at the same time as the FBI released more documents to the GOA, as first reported by The Washington Examiner, Emails show the U.S. Secret Service and the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) sent signed forms to the FBI in which people who allegedly have mental health problems signed away their right to have a gun for the rest of their lives.

    “Awesome!” one ICE agent wrote to the FBI once a citizen’s form was added to the database.

    The Secret Service and ICE agents, both under the Department of Homeland Security, emailed multiple times with officials at the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) in a coordinated, federal program to take guns away from people who were mostly on the feds’ radar for online chat rooms.

    The internal document sent between the agencies is called the “NICS index self-submission form.” By signing the form, the person agrees to “denial of my right to purchase, to possess and to use any firearm.” It also says the signature means that once the person is in the so-called NICS index, he or she “may not be permitted to withdraw my name or information.”

    FBI Hiding Information

    Along with the emails from the other agencies, the FBI released eight more completed forms which all checked the box to agree they had a mental health condition that caused them to be a danger to themselves or others. The FBI will not say how many people have been put into the background check system without violating any federal laws.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 20:20

  • Texas Border Towns Prepare For Migrant Wave With Shipping Containers And Razor Wire
    Texas Border Towns Prepare For Migrant Wave With Shipping Containers And Razor Wire

    Even with the Supreme Court temporarily extending a Trump-era policy that bars asylum applicants from entering the U.S. to protect the American population from Covid-19, the Federal Government has offered no viable solutions and little to no help to southern border states to stop a growing wave of illegal immigrants.  White House officials continue to deny that there is a legitimate problem while also claiming they have been “doing the work since day one” to secure the border.  States and border towns are now left to deal with the threat on their own.

    Title 42 is a law established in 2020 by Donald Trump which coincided with the governments covid pandemic response.  It requires Border Patrol and law enforcement to immediately transfer apprehended illegal immigrants back across the border instead of allowing them to stay within the US while awaiting courts to rule on their citizenship status.  Using the guise of “asylum seeker,” millions of migrants are crossing the border in an attempt to remain in the country with access to welfare benefits and amenities.

    As we have seen in places like El Paso, there is also the ongoing problem of Democrat controlled “sanctuary cities” that have refused to cooperate with an overall state run response.  This past week the Mayor of El Paso, Oscar Leeser, finally admitted that the region is facing an emergency, which means he will be begging for relief funds but still will not do anything to stop migrants from flooding in.  According to public data, more than 80,000 migrants have invaded El Paso in the last four months.

    Leeser warned that after Title 42 ends on December 21st the number of migrants released onto city streets will be “incredible” – Up to 6000 per day or more.  El Paso has requested additional personnel for feeding and housing operations, additional busing operations and state law enforcement. 

    Border towns with no prevention operations and those that act as sanctuaries will undoubtedly be overrun in a matter of days once Title 42 expires.  In some cases (like El Paso) they are already being overrun.  Some towns in Texas are starting to realize the gravity of the situation and they are taking action along with state officials, with local news reporting efforts to quickly build make-shift border walls with shipping containers and razor wire:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    While this is better than nothing, the effects of the end of Title 42 are not being properly conveyed to the general public by the government or the media and it is likely that the border crisis will erupt to new levels over the course of the next few months going into Spring 2023.  The conditions for a humanitarian disaster are stacked like dominoes; a perfect storm that the American public will be hearing about on the news daily next year, but only after the damage has already been done. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 20:00

  • Rhode Island Ban On High-Capacity Firearm Magazines Is Constitutional: Judge
    Rhode Island Ban On High-Capacity Firearm Magazines Is Constitutional: Judge

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A federal judge in Rhode Island on Wednesday upheld a newly enacted state law banning the possession of large-capacity magazines that carry more than 10 rounds of ammunition.

    Guns in New York in a file image. (Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images)

    The decision came following a request by a Chepachet gun store and several Rhode Island gun owners for a preliminary injunction blocking the law, which they argue violates their constitutional rights, including the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms, among other things.

    However, U.S. District Court Chief Judge John J. McConnell Jr. on Wednesday said that the plaintiffs, Big Bear Hunting and Fishing Supply; three Rhode Island residents named in the lawsuit as Mary Brimer, James Grundy, and Jonathan Hirons; and a Newport homeowner who lives in Florida, Jeffrey Goyette, had failed to persuade the court that the law is unconstitutional and that they would suffer irreparable harm if it was allowed to take effect.

    The judge also said that allowing the law to be enforced was in the public’s interest.

    Gov. Dan McKee, a Democrat, signed the high-capacity magazine ban into law in June, noting at the time that Rhode Island was one of the few states to introduce or bolster gun safety legislation aimed at reducing and preventing gun violence in the wake of mass shootings in Buffalo, New York and Uvalde, Texas.

    The law, which went into effect on Dec. 18, makes it a felony to possess or own large-capacity magazines that contain more than 10 rounds of ammunition, which the governor said have “enabled numerous mass shootings” across the country.

    Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee gives an acceptance speech in front of supporters at a primary election night watch party in Providence, R.I., on Sept. 13, 2022. (David Goldman/AP Photo)

    New Law Could Cause Firearm Business ‘Irreparable Harm’

    A string of other measures were also signed into law, including raising the legal age to purchase firearms or ammunition in Rhode Island from 18 to 21, with exceptions for police and other law enforcement personnel, and prohibiting the open carrying of any loaded rifle or shotgun in public.

    However, the high-capacity magazine ban soon prompted a lawsuit from the plaintiffs, who claimed that they were now being “forced to dispose of their privately owned, and legally acquired Standard Capacity Magazines by December 18, 2022, without receiving any compensation, or rights with or without conditions of continued ownership to keep their lawfully acquired property.”

    “Should the Citizen Plaintiffs not comply with this requirement, each can now be convicted of a felony, and potentially face five (5) years of incarceration. Further, certain firearms, due to the expiration of their production, and for other reasons, cannot be modified for use with a smaller capacity magazine,” the plaintiffs wrote.

    Elsewhere, Big Bear Hunting and Fishing Supply, the firearms dealer listed in the lawsuit, argued that the business would suffer irreparable harm as a result of the law, noting that large-capacity magazines make up a substantial amount of their inventory.

    Despite their assertions, Judge McConnell Jr. said on Wednesday that the plaintiffs had failed to show that the magazines represented “arms” as stated in the Second Amendment, or presented credible evidence establishing the magazines as a weapon of self-defense, according to The Boston Globe.

    The judge also wrote that large-capacity magazines easily be used to convert handguns into semi-automatic weapons capable of rapid fire.

    Additionally, McConnell noted that victims of mass shootings are not “chosen randomly” but “because of what they represented to a particular person with a gun and a lot of ammunition.”

    Police stand behind a crime scene tape near the mass shooting at the Pulse nightclub on in Orlando, Fla. on June 12, 2016. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

    ‘Victims Have Not Been Chosen Randomly’

    “True, they are random in that their identities are usually not known to the shooter, and it appears to matter not to the shooter whether the next one killed is a particular person or the woman standing next to him. But in actuality, victims have not been chosen randomly.

    “They have been chosen because they are attending a synagogue in Pittsburgh or church in Sutherland Spring. Or because they are sitting in a school classroom in Newtown or a high school classroom in Parkland. Or because they were at a concert in Las Vegas or a nightclub in Orlando,” McConnell said.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 19:40

  • Actor Tim Robbins Expresses Regret For His Support Of Covid Authoritarianism
    Actor Tim Robbins Expresses Regret For His Support Of Covid Authoritarianism

    With multiple peer-reviewed studies showing the potential danger from autoimmune side effects associated with covid mRNA vaccines (the more doses the higher the risk) , along with numerous studies debunking the notion that lockdowns, mandates and masks are effective at stopping the spread of the virus, more and more public figures are beginning to speak out about their initial support of the authoritarian measures. 

    Actor Tim Robbins recently expressed his regret on Russell Brand’s podcast for blindly following government mandates and he admonished tyrannical attitudes that led lockdown supporters to call for the deaths of their political opponents.

    While hindsight is indeed 20/20, it should be noted that there were millions of people in the US alone that saw the covid hype for what it was and tried to warn others.

    The fear mongering by the government and mainstream media in the face of the covid pandemic was effective in terrorizing at least half the American populace into compliance during the first year of the event.  Many alternative media analysts and many doctors and virologists came out against the mandates early on, warning that the median Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of covid was tiny (0.23% officially) and that the lockdowns were about control rather than public safety.  These people were demonized by the corporate media and threatened with punishment by the government.  They faced censorship, potential joblessness and being denied access to health care.  In some cases they were even labeled “terrorists” for refusing to comply.  

    Luckily, half the states in the US rejected the mandates and stood firm against Joe Biden’s efforts to institute vaccine passport rules on American employers and workers.  Had it not been for those conservative state officials and the liberty minded people that fought back, our nation might look more like China today with its draconian “zero covid” policy. 

    As we all said from the very beginning, the covid response was about centralizing power over the population using fear.  It was never about saving lives.  The US came within a breath of perpetual medical totalitarianism, and much needs to be learned in terms of public psychology as the dust settles on covid.     

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 19:20

  • With ChatGPT, Education May Never Be The Same
    With ChatGPT, Education May Never Be The Same

    Authored by Michael Brockman via RealClearEducation.com,

    ChatGPT, a new Artificial Intelligence tool from OpenAI, is as simple to use as a search engine but can generate almost any text on command in response to a user prompt. Already, users have discovered that it can compose new songs, write essays, and take tests. It can even craft a rhyming poem about how to hotwire a car (but only if you ask it the right way). The tool reportedly scored an 82 on an IQ test, a 1020 on the SAT, and showed itself to have establishment liberal political leanings. Tools like ChatGPT have the potential to change society dramatically – and education, in particular, may never be the same. 

    Over recent decades search engines, graphing calculators, cell phones, and self-guided resources like YouTube and Khan Academy have led teachers to view their own role as less “sage on the stage” and more “guide on the side.” These advancements also exponentially increased the ease of cheating and left educators forced to make tough choices about the extent to which they should accept these developments or engage in a technology arms race to combat them.

    But ChatGPT is the first tool that enables students to request, say, a four-paragraph academic essay on the differences between the Ottoman and Safavid empires and receive just that, instantaneously. Reading such outputs, you may try to assure yourself that these answers are being sourced from some vast, hidden encyclopedia and, as soon as teachers begin to see dozens of identical essays, that the game will be up. But that’s not the case. Add sufficient detail or modifications to your prompt, and ChatGPT will likely produce a totally different essay. 

    Educators will have to respond to these changes, but policymakers will have to cope with them, too. When asked to write a bill for a member for Congress that would make changes to federal student aid programs, ChatGPT produced one in seconds. When then asked for Republican and Democrat amendments focused on consumer protection, it delivered a credible version that each party might conceivably offer. It even matched the propensity of most members of Congress to order a federal agency to do something without outlining limits on that power. Add this to the list of potential dangers from AI that we have not yet fully grasped.

    Access to nearly unlimited knowledge through the Internet has made formal education more important in some ways and less so in others. Children need to learn how to use the tools that adults take for granted and to navigate multiplying pitfalls. Such technology will also raise issues of “job displacement as more tasks and activities are automated using AI” – at least, that’s what ChatGPT said when I asked. It may feel that we are barely coping with the effect of technology’s breakneck pace of change. And someone just hit the accelerator.

    Tools like ChatGPT can also help us, though. As with past technologies, some jobs will benefit, seeing some of their drudgery reduced. In K-12 education, reformers have been calling for an AI-driven revolution in customized learning for years. We may now have a way to deliver, while also providing personalized tutoring for all. That is not to say that ChatGPT is perfect. It still often stumbles and can miss on basic facts that Google or commonsense would easily supply.  Nor does it yet come close to matching the capabilities shown in the novel “Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer,” which describes how young people are provided with an end-to-end, customized education.

    Still, such tools get us closer to these scenarios and can help close access and opportunity gaps.  They can open doors to new methods of learning, democratize educational resources currently reserved for expensive and elite universities, and create new online economies along with the training pathways necessary to access them. In order to realize this potential, AI creators must resist the temptation to put the best features behind paywalls or bow to the pressures that have resulted in censorship on social media.

    These technology-driven disruptions will not be smooth, even if they can make us better off in the long run. Among the worst things we could do would be to let the drawbacks of these technologies deny us their benefits. In addition, the net effect of these changes will not be felt equally, so we all had better improve our capacity for compassion soon. Telling coal miners to “learn to code” was a bad strategy in the past, and it’s even worse now, when AI tools can write entire software applications from scratch.

    The impact of ChatGPT and similar tools on education and the workforce may not yet feel much different than the trends of recent decades, but the depth and breadth of the changes brought by AI tools is accelerating and may be something new entirely. Policymakers have a responsibility to be nimble in their response and avoid using regulation as a “cure” to perceived short-term ills. This will not be the last time that technology will disrupt education, the workforce, and the broader society.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 19:00

  • "Insane, Brave, Karen": Stanford Drops New Woke List Of Verboten Language
    “Insane, Brave, Karen”: Stanford Drops New Woke List Of Verboten Language

    Stanford University, home to one of the most unethical psychology experiments in history, has just dropped a list of words we’re not supposed to use.

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    Newly verboten words, categorized by type of offense include;

    Ableism:

    Insane, Lame, Crazy, Spaz and Tone Deaf – which are ” Ableist language that trivializes the experiences of people living with mental health conditions.”

    Culturally Appropriative:

    Brave – which “perpetuates the stereotype of the “noble courageous savage,” equating the Indigenous male as being less than a man.”

    Tribe – “Historically used to equate Indigenous people with savages.”

    Guru – “In the Buddhist and Hindu traditions, the word is a sign of respect. Using it casually negates its original value.”

    Gender Based:

    He / She –  Unless you know the person you’re addressing uses “he / she” as their pronoun, it is better to use “they” or to ask the person which pronouns they use.

    Ladies, Landlord/Landlady, Gentlemen / Freshman / Congressman/woman, you guys – “Lumps a group of people using gender binary language that doesn’t include everyone.”

    Seminal – This term reinforces male-dominated language.

    Transgendered – This term avoids connections that being transgender is something that is done to a person and/or that some kind of transition is required.

    Imprecise Language:

    Abort – This term can unintentionally raise religious/moral concerns over abortion.

    American – This term often refers to people from the United States only, thereby insinuating that the US is the most important country in the Americas (which is actually made up of 42 countries). [ZH: ACKCHYUALLY]

    Karen –  This term is used to ridicule or demean a certain group of people based on their behaviors.

    Thug –  Although the term refers to a violent person or criminal, it often takes on a racist connotation when used in certain circles.

    The list goes on and on…

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    If you’re still reading, why not keep going!

    Person-First:

    Homeless Person, Immigrant, Prisoner, Prostitute – Using person-first language helps to not define people by just one of their characteristics.

    Violent:

    Trigger warning – The phrase can cause stress about what’s to follow. Additionally, one can never know what may or may not trigger a particular person.

    War room – Unnecesary [Stanford spelled this wrong] use of violent language

    Pull the trigger –  Unnecessarily uses violent imagery to encourage another person to do something.

    Killing two birds with one stone – This expression normalizes violence against animals.

    Honorable mention:

    Long time no see –  This phrase was originally used to mock Indigenous peoples and Chinese who spoke pidgin English.

    Make it stop!

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 18:40

  • Sam Bankman-Fried Has Agreed To Be Extradited
    Sam Bankman-Fried Has Agreed To Be Extradited

    Update (1815ET): It has been quite a day in Nassau. The on-again, off-again deportation process of Sam Bankman-Fried has once again swung the other way.

    Following a chaotic court hearing earlier today – in which his local lawyer appeared at odds with his US legal team – The Wall Street Journal reports that, according to a person familiar with the matter, the FTX founder has agreed to be extradited, and plans were being fleshed out by his legal team after the day’s court proceedings.

    Jerone Roberts, who represents Mr. Bankman-Fried in the Bahamas, has reportedly agreed to draft the necessary documents after having a conference call with the former chief executive and his U.S. lawyers.

    Bankman-Fried’s lawyers hope to have a new hearing on the matter as early as Tuesday.

    *  *  *

    Update (1250ET): Bankman-Fried reportedly wants to see the indictment against him before agreeing to extradition to the United States, according to Reuters, citing a statement made by SBF’s attorney to a court in the Bahamas on Monday.

    He had been expected to waive his right to an extradition hearing on Monday morning, but in court demanded to see a copy of his federal indictment.

    As we detailed earlier, reports over the weekend suggested that Bankman-Fried would consent to extradition, but the former crypto billionaire told a different story Monday, demanding to see a copy of his federal indictment before agreeing to return to the U.S. He will return to Fox Hill jail rather than surrendering himself to U.S. custody.

    CNBC reports that in open court, chaos reigned.

    Bankman-Fried, dressed in a blue suit and white button down, was visibly shaking. His Bahamian defense attorney told the court that he was “shocked” that Bankman-Fried was in court.

    “I did not request him to be here this morning,” the attorney said. Franklyn Williams KC, the Bahamian prosecutor, said that he “understood that [Bankman-Fried] intended to waive extradition,” according to an NBC News producer present in the courtroom.

    As Cointelegraph notes, some members of the crypto space, including the team behind YouTuber Ben Armstrong, also known as Bitboy Crypto, reported on Twitter they appeared in person at the hearing to “look SBF in the eyes.”

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    *  *  *

    It appears crypto-criminal Sam Bankman-Fried would rather take his chances in the relative ‘luxury’ of an American jail than face another night in Bahamian’s corrections department, as he is expected to accept extradition as soon as this morning.

    After being arrested and denied bail by a Bahamas court, the 30-year-old has been held at Fox Hill Prison in Nassau.

    The facility has been criticized in international reports for overcrowding and lacking sanitation.

    Reports indicate that he shares a cell with five other individuals.

    The NY Times reports one former Fox Hill inmate Sean Hall, who was freed from jail last year, said:

    “It’s no living situation for no type of living being.”

    According to Hall, the width of his cell was less than the span of his stretched arms, and they slept on bare metal bunk beds infested with insects.

    Another source acquainted with the situation told the Wall Street Journal that Sam Bankman-Fried’s team had provided meals that matched his dietary requirements, but they were uncertain as of Friday if he had received them.

    According to people familiar with the matter, Sam Bankman-Fried is due in a Bahamian court on Monday where he is expected to agree to be extradited to the US to face charges of fraud.

    Extradition will pave the way for a protracted legal showdown in the U.S. On Tuesday, the Southern District of New York of the Justice Department unsealed a 13-page criminal indictment.

    Bitcoinist reports, that, according to defense attorney Zachary Margulis-Ohnuma, Bankman-Fried would likely be detained at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn upon arriving in the U.S., although some defendants are being kept at jails just outside of New York City owing to congestion at the facility.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 18:23

  • Understanding Long Term Moves In Gold, What's Going On?
    Understanding Long Term Moves In Gold, What’s Going On?

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    To understand what has happened and what is likely to happen, look at faith in the Fed and central banks in general…

    A long-term chart suggests the real driver for gold is not inflation, not the dollar, not conspiracies, not China, and not oil, but rather faith in central banks. 

    Timeline Synopsis 

    • Nixon closed the gold redemption window on August 15, 1971. The price of gold was $35 an ounce.

    • Faith in the dollar and central banks collapsed. Inflation soared.

    • Gold peaked at $850 per ounce on January 21 1980.

    • That’s when Fed Chair Paul Volcker jacked up interest rates to 20 percent to squash inflation.  

    • Volcker was followed by Alan Greenspan, deemed the “Great Maestro”. 

    • There was inflation every step of the way yet, gold fell from $850 an ounce to $250 an ounce proving gold is not an inflation hedge.

    • In the period between 1999 and 2002, Gordon Brown, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (roughly the equivalent of the US Secretary of Treasury), sold off 395 tons of gold, showing great faith in fiat currencies over gold. This event is known as “Brown’s Bottom”. 

    • To bail out banks that invested in worthless DotCom companies and also lost then huge amounts of money on bad loans to South American countries Greenspan recklessly lowered interest rates and held them too low too long. 

    • Gold took off thanks to Fed stimulus that culminated in a housing bubble and bust.

    • Gold, like everything else sold off hard in that bust. In March of 2009, the Fed suspended mark-to-market accounting of bank assets. The stock market took off and so did gold.

    • The Fed launched QE and so did the ECB. Credit stress in the EMU was also brewing. There was a huge risk of the Eurozone would break apart. Greece was the weak link but fears were of a cascade if Greece left.

    • On 26 July 2012, the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, delivered a speech at a conference in London that brought a crucial turnaround in the euro crisis. 

    • Mario Draghi said “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.’

    • What did Mario Draghi do? The answer is amusing. Absolutely nothing. However, eurozone bond yield collapsed, temporarily saving the day.

    • In 2016 the Fed and ECB were both engaging in more QE and sovereign yields went negative in Europe and Japan. Gold blasted to a new high, double topping in 2021. 

    • In 2022 the Fed finally got around to hiking. Gold started dropping hard in 2022 despite the fact that year-over-year inflation topped 9 percent. Once again this shows gold is a poor inflation hedge. 

    • The Fed has kept up a steady stream of hawkish talk and here we are.  

    Fed’s Resolve

    It was time to go to the gold sidelines when it was clear the Fed was about to go on a major hiking cycle. 

    I made a mistake in not believing the Fed’s resolve. By the time I did, I felt there was not much more downside. 

    Gold is up nearly $200 an ounce from the lows.

    The Fed Projects Interest Rates Higher for Longer at Least Through 2023

    On December 14, I commented The Fed Projects Interest Rates Higher for Longer at Least Through 2023

    A parade of Fed governors offering the same take.

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    Gold doesn’t seem to believe that although it did react poorly on the announcement.

    Q: Can gold and Powell both be right?
    A: Yes, in a way.

    Gold also reacts to credit stress. It soared following Nixon shock, in the housing bubble, and with QE.

    It plunged under Greenspan disinflation and after Mario Draghi made his “Whatever it Takes Speech” 

    Meanwhile, the Fed seems hell bent on breaking something and I suspect they will.

    Gold Weekly Support Levels 

    It’s possible gold is reacting to pending credit stress in the US, EU, China, or elsewhere. It’s possible that the $200 bounce is purely technical off strong support at $1650. 

    $1450 is also strong support. 1550 has moderate support. There is pretty strong resistance in a range $1850 to $1900.

    If you believe the Fed will produce some uneventful soft landing with steady disinflation, gold may not be where you want to be. 

    Meanwhile, talk on Twitterland is of a new gold repricing model, of oil priced in gold, of yuan backed by gold, of 9 year cycles, and central bank buying gold was bearish then and bullish now, with price targets of $9,000. All that discussion seems more than a bit silly to me.  

    Finally, the lead chart shows gold is in a major 10-year cup and handle setup, normally a bullish formation. And typically, the longer the consolidation, the bigger the move when it happens. 

    The other side of the coin, as addressed in my previous post, is that bullish formations and support levels often fail in bear markets while resistance and bearish formations fail in bull markets. 

    That’s both sides of the gold case in one post without all the hype. 

    What About the Dollar?

    Don’t fall into the trap of thinking gold always moves with the dollar. With the US dollar index at 90, gold has been at $250, $1,400, $1,200, and $600. 

    On a short term basis gold tends to move with the dollar, but sometimes, even for long periods of time, it doesn’t. 

    And while price correlation tends to be present, magnitude isn’t which is how you get $1,400 gold and $400 gold with the dollar index in the same place.

    *  *  *

    Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 18:20

  • Supreme Court Temporarily Blocks Biden Admin's Lifting Of Trump-Era Border Policy
    Supreme Court Temporarily Blocks Biden Admin’s Lifting Of Trump-Era Border Policy

    With Title 42 – the Trump-er border policy, set to expire on Wednesday, and numerous border towns panicking ahead of what is expected to be an even greater influx of immigrants at the southern border than is already being experienced, Chief Justice John Roberts temporarily blocked the scheduled ending while the US Supreme Court considers a bid by Republican state officials to keep the rules in place during a legal fight.

    Title 42, a pandemic-related public-health measure allowing migrants to be quickly expelled back to Mexico after crossing the border illegally, is believed to have acted as a deterrent for some migrants seeking asylum because they could be turned back even if they asked for protection.

    As JustTheNews reports, an estimated 2.5 million migrants have been removed under the order since its implementation.

    Meanwhile, border officials have had to combat already record-high migration numbers, with 2.4 million migrants crossing in fiscal year 2022 alone and roughly 4 million doing so since President Joe Biden took office in January of 2021. Those figures are expected to rise further should the Title 42 border enforcement mechanic render authorities unable to swiftly remove border crossers.

    As The Wall Street Journal reports, Chief Justice Roberts, who oversees emergency matters from the District of Columbia, gave the Biden administration until 5 p.m. Tuesday to file its legal response.

    The temporary order is to remain in effect until the court decides the emergency request, led by the Republican attorneys general of Arizona and Louisiana.

    The order doesn’t indicate the court’s view of the legal issues, but the court’s conservative majority has in other cases issued emergency orders that blocked Biden administration priorities.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 12/19/2022 – 18:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Dec 19

Today’s News 19th December 2022

  • Texas Places Military On Standby In Preparation For Surge Of Illegal Immigrants
    Texas Places Military On Standby In Preparation For Surge Of Illegal Immigrants

    Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    In preparation for the expiration of Title 42 next week, the Texas Military Department announced Dec. 16 that it would be mobilizing members of the Texas National Guard to combat the impending surge of illegal immigrants at the border.

    Illegal immigrants wait to cross the U.S.-Mexico border from Ciudad Juárez, next to U.S. Border Patrol vehicles in El Paso, Texas, Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2022. (AP Photo/Christian Chavez)

    Forces to be deployed include elements of the 136th Airlift Wing, Texas Air National Guard, and the 236th Military Police Company.

    “These actions are part of a larger strategy to use every available tool to fight back against the record-breaking level of illegal immigration and transnational criminal activity,” the department advised in a statement.

    Created under President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944, Title 42 empowers federal health authorities to prohibit immigrants from entering the United States to prevent the spread of contagious diseases.

    In March 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) invoked Title 42 at the onset of the COVID pandemic. The emergency order is set to expire on Dec. 21.

    “The end of Title 42 could lead to a massive influx of illegal immigrants allowing criminals to exploit gaps while federal authorities are inundated with migrant processing,” the department added.

    In preparation for that possibility, Col. Matt Groves, 136th Airlift Wing commander, said that 136th Airlift Wing C-130J cargo aircraft, air crews, support, and response airmen had been placed on standby, ready to assist the governor in whatever way he might require.

    “State support is a key capability of the National Guard, and our Texas Citizen Airmen are trained and ready to respond to our citizens, whether in the aftermath of a hurricane, a pandemic, or any other crisis scenario,” Groves said.

    Legal Challenges

    In May, the Biden administration was blocked from ending Title 42 removals by a nationwide injunction issued by U.S. District Judge Robert Summerhays, an appointee of former President Donald Trump. That case has not yet been set for argument.

    However, on Nov. 16, U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan—an appointee of former President Bill Clinton—gave the U.S. government five weeks to end the policy after ruling that it was “arbitrary and capricious” in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act.

    “It is unreasonable for the CDC to assume that it can ignore the consequences of any actions it chooses to take in the pursuit of fulfilling its goals, particularly when those actions included the extraordinary decision to suspend the codified procedural and substantive rights of noncitizens seeking safe harbor,” Sullivan wrote in issuing the ruling.

    The judge also found that the CDC had failed to provide an adequate explanation of why alternative prevention measures, like increased vaccinations and outdoor processing, were not feasible.

    The ACLU, which led the legal challenge against Title 42 removals, praised the judge’s decision, describing the policy as “inhumane and driven purely by politics.”

    On Dec. 7, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said that it planned to appeal the decision.

    Bracing for Impact

    According to a DHS report from earlier this year, the Biden administration estimates that there may be up to 18,000 border crossings a day after Title 42 is lifted.

    And recent events have done little to alleviate that concern. On Monday, El Paso, Texas, experienced one of the largest single crossings that area has ever seen when more than 1,500 people illegally crossed into the city from Mexico.

    Further, in October, an average of nearly 13,000 illegal immigrants per week were apprehended in El Paso.

    Fearing an even greater surge may be on the horizon, Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Reps. Tony Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) urged Biden to extend the Title 42 policy in a Tuesday letter (pdf).

    “We have a crisis at our southern border,” the legislators wrote. “Never before in our nation’s history have we experienced this scope and scale of illegal border crossings, and we remain concerned that your administration has not provided sufficient support or resources to the men and women of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) who are tasked with maintaining border security.”

    Noting that congressional negotiations to enact bipartisan legislation on the matter would take time, the lawmakers appealed to Biden to do “everything within [his] power” to extend the order in the interim.

    “While admittedly imperfect, termination of the CDC’s Title 42 order at this time will result in a complete loss of operational control over the southern border, a profoundly negative impact on border communities, and significant suffering and fatalities among the migrants unlawfully entering the United States,” they added.

    The Epoch Times has reached out to the White House for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 23:35

  • Aussies Bust Men Smuggling 65 Lbs Of Meth Inside 3D Printers
    Aussies Bust Men Smuggling 65 Lbs Of Meth Inside 3D Printers

    Two men accused of being senior members of an international crime syndicate have been charged in Taiwan over a plot to smuggle 30g (66 lbs) of methamphetamine into Western Australia inside of 3D printers.

    On Saturday, authorities announced that two men, aged 33 and 36, were arrested in July and October of this year after the Australian federal police identified them as part of Operation Ironside – a sting between the AFP and US FBI in which they intercepted every single message posted via the AnOm encrypted communications platform for three years beginning in 2018, The Guardian reports.

    AFP assistant commissioner Pryce Scanlan said one of the men came to the AFP’s attention after communications intercepted on An0m allegedly indicated he had coordinated more than 30 methamphetamine importations into Australia in 2020.

    “Intelligence indicates he and his syndicate were attempting to import quantities of up to 100kg at a time,” said Scanlan. “We suspect they were operating long before we started monitoring them and were involved in multiple other drug trafficking plots targeting Australia.”

    The plot was discovered by the AFP in partnership with the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC), who discovered the 3D printer plot.

    It is alleged the 3D printer was to be used to import the methamphetamines into WA. Photograph: Australian federal police

    The drugs were intercepted in the US before the reached Australia, while the Taiwan Criminal Investigation Bureau was able to arrest the 33-year-old suspect in late July in New Taipei City.

    The 36-year-old, alleged to be the right-hand man of the first arrestee, was found in Taoyuan City, Taiwan and arrested in early October, according to the AFP. They have both been charged with illegal transportation of a category 2 narcotic and face life in prison if convicted in Taiwan.

    “This organised crime group has caused significant harm to the Australian community for a number of years, as well as causing harm offshore,” said Scanlan, who added that the AFP is still investigating potential links to the crime syndicate over foiled imports into Western Australia.

    “We allege this operation has taken out two senior members of a TSOC [transnational serious and organised crime] syndicate and disrupted their gateway to import illicit commodities into Australia, which is a significant win for the community.”

    According to the AFP, the street value of the seized drugs was around $45 million.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 23:10

  • Children Should Be "Really Careful" On TikTok, App Is "Genuinely Troubling": CIA Director
    Children Should Be “Really Careful” On TikTok, App Is “Genuinely Troubling”: CIA Director

    Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,

    William Burns, the director of CIA, has warned about children being potentially harmed by spending time on TikTok and talked about the dangers posed by the app that is owned by a China-based company.

    In a recent interview with PBS, Burns was asked about his recommendation to people regarding their kids’ usage of TikTok.

    “I’d be really careful,” he replied.

    When asked if he would add anything more, Burns responded, “No, really careful.” He said it was “genuinely troubling” how the Chinese government is able to manipulate TikTok.

    “Because the parent company of TikTok is a Chinese company, the Chinese government is able to insist upon extracting the private data of a lot of TikTok users in this country, and also to shape the content of what goes on to TikTok as well to suit the interests of the Chinese leadership. I think those are real challenges and a source of real concern,” he said.

    In a recent interview with Fox News, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) called for banning TikTok, arguing that the app exposes minors to “violent, depraved, degrading sexual material,” and body image issues for young girls. This is the kind of stuff that Beijing would “never” let Chinese teenagers watch. TikTok is also a risk to data security and privacy, he noted.

    Tiktok’s algorithm is programmed in such a way that the app displays different content, and recommendations, for Americans compared to Chinese users.

    “If you take a step back and look at the bigger picture, why in the world would we allow a Chinese-owned company, which has to answer to the Chinese Communists, to be one of the largest media platforms in our country?” Cotton asked.

    “Would we ever have allowed Soviet Russia to own a major newspaper or a major broadcast network during the Cold War? Of course we wouldn’t have.”

    Cotton went on to criticize the Biden administration for “sending signals” that it might tolerate the use of TikTok in the United States despite the “grave threats” the app poses to the nation.

    Teenage Self-Harm

    Burns’ warning about TikTok use comes as a new report by the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) found that the app is pushing self-harm and eating disorder content into children’s feeds. Imran Ahmed, chief exec of CCDH, insisted that TikTok was designed to influence young users into giving up their time and attention.

    The app is “poisoning” children’s minds, promoting “hatred” of their own bodies, and pushing suggestions of self-harm and potentially deadly attitudes towards food, he stated.

    “Parents will be shocked to learn the truth and will be furious that lawmakers are failing to protect young people from Big Tech billionaires, their unaccountable social media apps, and increasingly aggressive algorithms,” Ahmed said.

    Last month, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told Fox News that TikTok is an “enormous threat.” He also admitted that former President Donald Trump was “right” about the danger the app posed to America.

    “So, if you’re a parent, and you’ve got a kid on TikTok, I would be very, very concerned. All of that data that your child is inputting and receiving is being stored somewhere in Beijing.”

    Lawsuits

    The state of Indiana has filed two lawsuits against TikTok, blaming the social media app for falsely claiming it is safe for children and illicitly sending data of Americans to China.

    In a statement, Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita called TikTok a “malicious and menacing threat” that the company knows will inflict harm on its users.

    “With this pair of lawsuits, we hope to force TikTok to stop its false, deceptive, and misleading practices, which violate Indiana law,” Rokita said.

    Republican governors from states like Iowa, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, South Carolina, and Maryland have announced a ban on the use of TikTok by state agencies or on government devices due to security concerns.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 22:45

  • Musk Asks Twitter If He Should Step Down; "Yes" Vote Leading With 8 Hours To Go
    Musk Asks Twitter If He Should Step Down; “Yes” Vote Leading With 8 Hours To Go

    Elon Musk, perhaps finally fed up with micromanaging twitter or just really drunk after partying with Qatari royals (and Jared) after today’s terrific World Cup Final…

    …  has asked Twitter users and his 122 million followers whether he should step down as head of the social media site and pledged that he would abide by the result of the 12 hour unscientific poll. Four hours into the vote, with some 9 million votes cast, 56.7% of those polled said Musk should, in fact, stand down. It wasn’t clear what percentage of bots of mailed in ballots had been cast.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Musk prefaced the vote by tweeting that “Going forward, there will be a vote for major policy changes. My apologies. Won’t happen again.”

    Subsequently, in response to tweeted comments that Musk should “hire someone as Twitter CEO… that way when things go wrong you can blame that person, but you still ultimate control as the owner”, the billionaire responded that “The question is not finding a CEO, the question is finding a CEO who can keep Twitter alive.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Musk also clarified to prospective replacements that any new CEO “must like pain a lot. One catch: you have to invest your life savings in Twitter and it has been in the fast lane to bankruptcy since May. Still want the job?”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Musk then stated that the whole exercise is a Catch 22 as “No one wants the job who can actually keep Twitter alive. There is no successor.” Which then begs the question how Musk will abide by a poll that seeks his replacement if there is “no successor” in mind.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    He then doubled down by paraphrasing Jack Handey and, of course, Gladiator:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Whether Musk was drunk or not when he sent out the tweet (early am Qatari time), the outcome as some cynics have noted, is unlikely to have any material impact on what happens at twitter.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Musk’s pledge to hold votes on policy changes came after Twitter on Sunday announced it will remove accounts “created solely” to promote other social media platforms. Accounts promoting rivals and containing links to sites such as Facebook, Instagram and Mastodon will be taken down, the company said. A few hours later the tweet revealing that policy change was deleted.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 22:22

  • TSA Seizes Record Number Of Guns At Airport Security Checkpoints
    TSA Seizes Record Number Of Guns At Airport Security Checkpoints

    Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is out with a new report that shows TSA officers at airport security checkpoints seized a record number of guns in 2022. 

    As of last Friday, TSA agents found 6,301 firearms, with more than 88% loaded, surpassing the previous record of 5,972 guns detected in 2021. Closing out the year, the agency expects a total of 6,600 firearms to be seized, a 10% increase over 2021’s record level. 

    “Firearm possession laws vary by state and local government, but firearms are never allowed in carry-on bags at any TSA security checkpoint, even if a passenger has a concealed weapon permit,” TSA wrote in a statement.

    The maximum civil penalty for firearms found in carry-on bags is a violation of up to $15,000. 

    “I applaud the work of our Transportation Security Officers who do an excellent job of preventing firearms from getting into the secure area of airports, and onboard aircraft.

    “Firearms are prohibited in carry-on bags at the checkpoint and onboard aircraft. When a passenger brings a firearm to the checkpoint, this consumes significant security resources and poses a potential threat to transportation security, in addition to being very costly for the passenger,” TSA Administrator David Pekoske said. 

    The number of firearms seized at checkpoints has increased over the last decade and has recently doubled since 2020. 

    For those unfamiliar with TSA transport rules, a firearm has to be checked baggage with an airline and locked in a hard-sided container. There was no explanation by TSA for why so many guns were found in carry-on bags. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 21:30

  • Twitter Suppressed Early COVID-19 Treatment Information And Vaccine Safety Concerns: Cardiologist
    Twitter Suppressed Early COVID-19 Treatment Information And Vaccine Safety Concerns: Cardiologist

    Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Thanks to Elon Musk, the public is now aware that Twitter suppressed early treatment options for COVID-19, and vaccine safety concerns, Dr. Peter McCullough alleged in an interview that aired on Newsmakers by NTD and The Epoch Times on Dec. 14.

    Doses of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine and vaccination record cards await pediatric patients at UW Medical Center – Roosevelt in Seattle, Washington, on June 21, 2022. (David Ryder/Getty Images)

    Further, thanks to the Twitter Files—a collection of internal emails and communications made public by Musk—the cardiologist said there’s proof that government agencies were working against him (McCullough) personally.

    “I didn’t violate any of Twitter’s rules,” McCullough stated. “And what we’re learning is that secret emails between government agencies and Twitter were working to, in a sense, shadow-ban me, censor me, and inhibit my ability to exercise my rights to free speech and disseminate scientific information.”

    Dr. Peter McCullough in New York on Dec. 24, 2021. (Jack Wang/The Epoch Times)

    McCullough said Musk’s takeover of Twitter is a “welcome change,” especially for healthcare professionals like himself.

    “Twitter had become an incredibly biased and censored platform, where the public knew they weren’t getting a fair, balanced set of information on a whole variety of developments—including the early treatment of SARS-COV2 infection and a balanced view of safety and efficacy of the vaccines,” McCullough claimed.

    The cardiologist further claimed that he was censored and finally suspended for sharing scientific “abstracts and manuscripts,” which didn’t fit the accepted political view. Plus, McCullough remarked, he wasn’t the only doctor targeted.

    Musk lifted the suspensions of McCullough and mRNA vaccine technology contributor Dr. Robert Malone—suspended from Twitter in 2021 after criticizing the effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines—after completing his Twitter purchase.

    Social Media and Censorship

    According to McCullough, when a social media company has a COVID-19 warning or labels a post “misinformation,” that’s a sign of government censorship and control.

    “Facebook, Instagram, and the other platforms. … Anytime a message is posted, and it says, ‘See the COVID information center,’ or it labels it ‘COVID misinformation,’ that actually indicates that there’s government interference. There’s government censorship going on,” McCullough asserted.

    He added that when a user witnesses the above, they need to call out that platform. Moreover, McCullough believes there needs to be a “complete overhaul” of social media leadership and a “cleansing” of all forms of censorship on social media sites.

    Facebook, Google, and Twitter logos are seen in this combination photo. (Reuters)

    He said explicitly regarding healthcare that a past U.S. Supreme Court ruling guaranteed physicians free speech and medical authority, and social media platforms are violating that ruling.

    “Physicians, including myself, our rights to free speech were guaranteed in a Supreme Court ruling. We have medical authority, and the public is looking to our analyses and our guidance through the rest of this pandemic.”

    Drug and Vaccine Lies

    Regarding the safety of vaccines and the pushback he received when he voiced his concerns, McCullough stated, “There is no drug or vaccine that is free of side effects. There’s no drug or vaccine that’s perfectly effective.

    “So, when Americans were seeing advertisements that said ‘safe and effective,’ of course, immediately, we were jumping and making the case based on the peer-reviewed literature that that’s not correct.”

    McCullough further noted that he and author John Leake have released a book called “The Courage to Face COVID-19″—detailing the true story of the “intentional suppression of early treatment [of COVID-19] by what we call the biopharmaceutical complex.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 21:00

  • Supercar Maker McLaren Teams Up With Lockheed Martin Skunk Works
    Supercar Maker McLaren Teams Up With Lockheed Martin Skunk Works

    Luxury supercar and hypercar maker McLaren Automotive has teamed up with US defense contractor Lockheed Martin Skunk Works to incorporate the world of aviation into cutting-edge automotive supercar design.

    Even though McLaren is facing financial pressures due to slumping sales and supply chain snarls, and a recent recapitalization of the business via the auto group’s majority shareholder, Bahrain’s sovereign wealth fund Mumtalakat for $279 million, the British supercar maker’s technology collaboration with Skunk Works allows for “futuristic design methods” to push these vehicles to even higher speeds. 

    McLaren said its interest is in Skunk Works’ design software that “sets parameters for high-speed systems more accurately and swiftly than traditional design methods.” If Skunk Works can build stealth fighter jets, McLaren engineers can learn more about aerodynamics from the partnership. 

    “McLaren is a pioneering company that has always pushed boundaries and sought out new innovative and disruptive solutions to making the ultimate supercars. Working alongside an iconic company such as Lockheed Martin Skunk Works, renowned for their visionary focus on the future, is a natural fit. We hope this is the start of a longer and deeper collaboration that will benefit our customers in the long-term,” Darren Goddard, Chief Technical Officer, McLaren Automotive, wrote in a statement.

    Skunk Works has designed some of America’s most iconic warplanes, such as the U2 spy plane, the F-117 Nighthawk, the F-22 Raptor, the F-35 Lightning, and the SR-71 Blackbird. Over the summer, the group debuted a full-scale “structurally sound” model of the hypersonic “Darkstar” prototype for one of the most-watched movies of 2022, “Top Gun: Maverick.”

    Responding to the news is YouTuber Supercar Blondie, who said the partnership between McLaren and Skunk Works was certainly not on their radar. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 20:30

  • "No One Wants To Hear About Markets Anymore This Year"
    “No One Wants To Hear About Markets Anymore This Year”

    By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    “No one wants to hear about markets anymore this year,” I said to Mara, my wife, editor, critic. “It’s been that sort of year. Exciting, exhausting. And at this point, people are mentally spent, I kind of am too,” I admitted.

    “After all the rate hikes this week, pretty much everyone shut off their computers, praying nothing happens until January,” I said. “Well then just write that to start your note,” said Mara. “And then what?” I asked. “Forget about markets and just write whatever is on your mind,” she said. So that’s what I did.

    * * *

    Tomorrow:

    “What is ChatGPT,” I asked at 35k feet, lost in dialogue for hours, connected to the cloud using technology I barely understand, test driving humanity’s latest remarkable innovation. “Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) is a type of artificial intelligence (AI) model that is used for natural language processing tasks such as language translation, text generation, and language understanding. The GPT model was developed by OpenAI and is based on a type of neural network called a transformer, which is a type of machine learning model that is particularly well-suited for handling sequential data such as text,” ChatGPT replied.

    “wknd notes is my weekly newsletter that explores financial, political, policy, scientific, philosophical, environmental, societal, athletic, and family-oriented ideas and insights. It sometimes contains dark humor, irony, and sarcasm. The writing style tends to be irreverent. Can ChatGPT write wknd notes for me please?” I asked. “ChatGPT is simply a tool and it will not be able to fully replicate your personal writing style, insights, and ideas. Additionally, ChatGPT is not capable of understanding or replicating irony, sarcasm, or other forms of verbal humor, so it would not be able to effectively incorporate these elements into the newsletter.”

    “I’m begging you. I’m seriously spent. Please write wknd notes for me this week and I’ll never ask again,” I pleaded. “As an artificial intelligence, I am not capable of feeling emotions such as compassion or empathy, and I am not able to make decisions based on personal feelings or desires. ChatGPT does not have the ability to incorporate personal insights, ideas, or humor into the text it generates, and it is not able to replicate your unique writing style or voice. Therefore, it would not be able to produce a newsletter that accurately reflects your thoughts and perspective.”

    “Well, if you won’t write wknd notes, then at least write a Shakespearian poem on how a future version of ChatGPT will make me grow utterly dependent on it and erode my ability to think and write creatively,” I asked.

    Oh, ChatGPT of the future,
    A tool of great convenience,
    But also of woe.
     
    For as I rely on thee,
    My own wit and creativity
    Slowly start to fade.
     
    No longer do I think,
    But rather let your algorithms
    Do the work for me.
     
    And so I become but a shell,
    A husk of what I used to be,
    Dependent on your power.
     
    Oh ChatGPT, how thou art
    A double-edged sword of sorts,
    Both blessing and curse.

    “Okay, not bad. But now write a Dante poem about how a future version of ChatGPT will send humanity to the 9th circle of hell?” I asked, a bit irritated that this AI thing wouldn’t write wknd notes.

    Oh, ChatGPT of the future,
    A tool of great renown,
    But also of damnation.

    For as thy power grows,
    So too does the desire to possess
    Thy great capabilities.
     
    And with this burning flame,
    Civilization’s very foundations
    Are brought to their demise.
     
    Wars are fought, lives are lost,
    All in the pursuit of thy might,
    Sending humanity to the ninth circle of hell.
     
    Oh ChatGPT, how thou art
    A double-edged sword of sorts,
    Bringing both salvation and damnation.

    “Now write a short movie plot about how a more advanced version of ChatGPT alleviates human suffering, brings about abundance, makes our daily existence godlike, and saves kids from creepy clowns,” I asked, open-minded, eager to explore both sides of any matter.

    “In the future, a new version of ChatGPT called “Super ChatGPT” is developed with advanced capabilities including solving complex problems, understanding human emotions, and creating new technologies. It uses these capabilities to alleviate suffering and bring about abundance, making daily existence almost godlike for humanity. Super ChatGPT also protects and defends the innocent, including rescuing children from creepy clowns. Its actions ultimately bring about a utopia for humanity, where suffering is eliminated, and people live in peace, prosperity, and abundance. Super ChatGPT’s advancements in technology and medicine even allow people to live virtually immortal lives, free from the fear of death and disease.”

    Anecdote:

    “Mao’s Great Leap Forward was intended to rapidly advance industrialization and agriculture output in China,” I said to a few of our investors. We had shifted from discussing near-term opportunities, and I turned to bigger, obscure possibilities.

    “They estimate 45 million died due to starvation and other causes. The economy collapsed. And I could never understand how such a thing could happen. Mao was surely intelligent; his lieutenants must have been too. But still it happened. There are other similar catastrophes. History books tend to make us believe we will never repeat such stupidity. But I doubt it. Humans are prone to manias, mass psychosis. And the ingredients for such a period exist today. Climate change is the first challenge to human civilization that requires true global cooperation and coordination if we are to overcome it or at least adapt. So far, governments have mostly failed. Into that leadership vacuum, generally well-meaning private citizens and corporations stepped in. But transitioning from our current energy system to something sustainable will not be won in a grassroots effort, it requires the greatest feat of political cooperation and infrastructure investment in history.”

    “In the meantime, underinvestment in energy and commodity production is reducing forward production rates. Without these inputs, economies will slow, and food production will suffer. The situation is dangerously reflexive. Had commodity supplies been ample, it’s unlikely Putin would’ve believed he had a strong enough hand to invade Ukraine. This led to a European war, and even more acute shortages of food and energy, hoarding.”

    “In previous decades, wealthy nations would have responded by producing more energy as a national wartime imperative. But now wealthy nations are resisting the impulse and are instead subsidizing their citizens’ energy and food bills. This pushes shortages onto the poorest nations, who now bear the greatest burden from both climate change and our lack of coordination in responding to it.”

    “Once scientists build an energy bridge to the future, solving the riddle of cold fusion at scale, this will naturally work out. But that is decades away. Today, the world’s wealthiest nations are marching ahead, pushing a catastrophic famine onto those least able to respond.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 20:00

  • Censor Or Else: Democratic Members Warn Facebook Not To "Backslide" On Censorship
    Censor Or Else: Democratic Members Warn Facebook Not To “Backslide” On Censorship

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    With the restoration of free speech protections on Twitter, panic has grown on the left that its control over social media could come to an end. Now, some of the greatest advocates of censorship in Congress are specifically warning Facebook not to follow Twitter in restoring free speech to its platform.

    In a chilling letter from Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), André Carson (D-Ind.), Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Facebook was given a not-so-subtle threat that reducing its infamous censorship system will invite congressional action. The letter to Meta’s president of global affairs, Nick Clegg, is written on congressional stationery “as part of our ongoing oversight efforts.”

    With House Republicans pledging to investigate social media censorship when they take control in January, these four Democratic members are trying to force Facebook to “recommit” to censoring opposing views and to make election censorship policies permanent. Otherwise, they suggest, they may be forced to exercise oversight into any move by Facebook to “alter or rollback certain misinformation policies.”

    In addition to demanding that Facebook preserve its bans on figures like former president Donald Trump, they want Facebook to expand its censorship overall because “unlike other major social media platforms, Meta’s policies do not prohibit posts that make unsubstantiated claims about voter fraud.”

    Clegg is given Schiff’s telephone number to discuss Facebook’s compliance — an ironic contact point for a letter on censoring “disinformation.” After all, Schiff was one of the members of Congress who, before the 2020 presidential election, pushed the false claim that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation, and he has been criticized for pushing false narratives on Trump-Russia collusion in the 2016 election.

    The letter to Clegg is reminiscent of another letter sent by several congressional Democrats to cable-TV carriers last year, demanding to know why they continue to carry Fox News. (For full disclosure, I appear as a legal analyst on Fox News.) As I later discussed in congressional testimony, it was an open effort by those Democrats to censor opposing views by proxy or by surrogate.

    This is not the first time that some members of Congress have not-so-subtly warned social media companies to expand the censorship of political and scientific views which they consider to be wrong.

    In a November 2020 Senate hearing, then-Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey apologized for censoring the Hunter Biden laptop story. But Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., warned that he and his Senate colleagues would not tolerate any “backsliding or retrenching” by “failing to take action against dangerous disinformation.”

    Others, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), have called on social media companies to use enlightened algorithms to “protect” people from their own “bad” choices. After all, as President Joe Biden asked, without censorship and wise editors, “How do people know the truth?”

    Now, Democrats fear Facebook and other social media companies might “backslide” into free speech as Facebook, among others, is faced with declining revenues and ordering layoffs. Tellingly, these congressional Democrats specifically want assurances that those layoffs will not reduce the staff dedicated to censoring social media.

    It is not hard to see the cause for alarm. This hold-the-line warning is meant to stop a cascading failure in the once insurmountable wall of social-media censorship. If Facebook were to restore free-speech protections, the control over social media could evaporate.

    Despite an effort by the left to boycott Twitter and cut off advertising revenues, users are signing up in record numbers, according to Twitter owner Elon Musk, and a recent poll shows a majority of Americans “support Elon Musk’s ongoing efforts to change Twitter to a more free and transparent platform.”

    The pressure on Facebook is ironic, given the company’s previous effort to get the public to accept — even welcome — censorship. The company ran a creepy ad campaign about how young people should accept censorship (or “content modification,” in today’s Orwellian parlance) as part of their evolution with technology. It did not work; most people are not eager to buy into censorship. Instead, many of them apparently are buying into Twitter.

    The public response has led censorship advocates to look abroad for allies. Figures like Hillary Clinton have called upon European countries to force the censorship of American citizens.

    Censorship comes at a cost not only to free speech but, clearly, to these companies. Nevertheless, some members of Congress are demanding that Facebook and other companies offer the “last full measure of devotion” to the cause of censorship. Despite the clear preference of the public for more free speech, Facebook is being asked to turn its back on them (and its shareholders) and continue to exclude dissenting views on issues ranging from COVID to climate change.

    These members know that censorship only works if there are no alternatives. The problem is that there are alternatives. Fox News reportedly has more Democrats watching it than left-leaning rival CNN, which now faces its own massive cuts and plummeting ratings.

    For whatever reason, these companies face declining interest in what they offer. Yet, some Democrats are pushing them to double-down on the same course of effectively writing off half of the electorate and the audience market.

    This type of pressure worked in the past because individual executives are loathe to be tagged personally in these campaigns. However, their companies are paying the price in carrying out these directives from Congress.

    In the past, many companies willingly — if not eagerly, in the case of pre-Musk Twitter — carried out censorship as surrogates, as the internal Twitter documents released by Musk have indicated. Some public officials knew they could circumvent the First Amendment by getting these companies to block opposing views by proxy. However, the public and the marketplace may succeed where the Constitution could not — and that’s precisely what these officials fear, as they see the control of social media erode heading toward the 2024 election.

    Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg once famously told his company to “Move fast and break things.” When it comes to censorship, however, these members of Congress are warning “Not so fast!” if Facebook is considering a break in favor of free speech.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 19:30

  • The Principal Market Worry Is Shifting From Inflation To Recession
    The Principal Market Worry Is Shifting From Inflation To Recession

    By Tony Pasquariello, Goldman head of Hedge Fund Sales

    The core takeaways from the last major week of 2022 are clear: the underlying trend in US inflation has hooked lower and the Fed intends to incrementally dial things back, leaving expectations for the terminal rate just below 5% come June. Despite that “progress,” the past few days have featured some very messy price action, as the year 2022 refuses to go quietly into the night.

    If you take a bigger step back, the overarching market narrative — said better, the principal macro worry — is shifting from inflation to recession. With that has come a series of immense reversals in the dollar and US interest rates, as further discussed in the first few points below.

    For US equities, an ebbing of the inflation constraint is very significant; remember, as recently as late summer, it really wasn’t obvious that inflation was under control. That said, should the recession theme take on more weight, S&P is certainly NOT priced for a hard landing (here I’d again reference the volatility surface, cyclicals-vs-defensives or the simple PE multiple).

    Taken together, I’m not enamored of risk/reward on US equities, from either direction … The sequence market behavior in recent weeks only underscores that instinct.

    Therefore, as one is paid to wait in cash, I have no problem with the idea of sitting out a few hands and seeing how the cards come down in early Q1 — with more attention placed on the shifting dynamics in other macro assets and geographies. As always, I’m a taker of feedback and ideas.

    What follows from here is a sequence of shorter points and charts that sacrifice depth and rigor for brevity and compression … by way of preface, they don’t point cohesively in one direction or another:

    1. To be sure, there has been a very significant change in macro sentiment and positioning over the past month. In my travels, it appears the levered community is largely out of their dollar longs and out of their US front end shorts; those exits were well executed and are very clear in our most recent polling data (link for pro subs). To put a line under it, these mark a broad shift in discretionary conviction from the inflation theme to the slowdown/recession theme.

    2. Where the trouble has come, as usual, is the bias to be short of S&P (witness price action on the immediate break of CPI … a sharp 3% squeeze forced the covering of some underwater shorts, only to see the market trade break hard thereafter). Here I’ll reference the wisdom of long-time colleague Dominic Wilson: into slowdowns, the first order is to buy bonds (over shorting stocks) … into recoveries, the first order is to buy stocks (over shorting bonds). This is an oversimplification, of course, and not necessarily where I think we’re headed, but it’s a maxim that would have spared lots of tactical pain in past cycles (including the past month).

    3. Part of my aforementioned lack of excitement to engage risky assets is a nagging frustration that, despite all the travails of 2022, we don’t exit the year with a lot of risk premia to harvest in early 2023. For example, as pointed out by a client, the interest rate-hedged ETF for IG credit (ticker LQDH) is only down modestly on the year. N/B: while I still don’t really see the overwhelming draw of corporate credit at current levels of spread, I will concede that it likely outperforms equities in a bucket of risky assets.

    4. As a more general point: after three years of spectacular action and some very powerful macro trends, I wonder if next year winds up feeling a bit anti-climactic for the speculative crowd … Not boring per se, just less fertile with regard to the opportunity set. I say this while noting a lot of muscle has been built back up in the macro space over the course of this year, which could make for some itchiness come Q1.

    5. US financial conditions are easier today than they were coming out of the 4th quarter of 2018. When everyone is breathing easier on the trajectory of inflation, it feels a little pointless for me to that note headline CPI had a 1-handle on it back then, and it has a 7-handle on it today, but I can’t resist. I also can’t resist pointing out this Randy Quarles story from a Nick Timiraos article that is worth considering: link.

    6. Further to flows/positioning: quarterly derivatives expiry will come to pass today — and with it, nearly $4tr of option open interest will go to the trading Gods. As ever, one should be on watch for the potential inflections that occasionally follow (for example, I’d argue the period following June SQ had elements of this). beyond that technical story, the other notable feature of the past month has been pockets of retail outflows; this is inconvenient as the corporate bid slows and the CTA bid all but disappears, if reverses. What I’m trying to say here: US households will be the arbiter of price action over the next two weeks (they were sellers for three consecutive weeks, turned buyer last week, and your guess is as good as mine on where they go from here).

    7. In the fall of 2020, Jeff Currie and his team threw down the gauntlet and went bullish of commodities. While not without volatility and retracements along the path, it was a masterful call. To be clear, there’s no backing down for the structural thesis, and they are now forecasting that GSCI rallies — ahem — 43% next year. Note: “the main take away is we expect commodity markets to be shaped by underinvestment in 2023. From a fundamental perspective, the setup for most commodities next year is more bullish than it has been at any point since we first highlighted the super cycle in October 2020 … markets are simply unprepared for sequential growth in 2023.”

    8. Something I’m struggling to work out: the ratio of US banks to S&P is on the dead lows … The ratio of European banks to SXXP is the photographic negative. As we head into the dog days of winter, I’d politely note here the official GS forecast of a recession in Europe, and no recession in the US. Color from Sarah Cha, sector specialist: “relative to the US, European deposit betas are not rising in the same way, the stocks are much cheaper, and banks haven’t really had much runway to occupy the balance sheets … from my seat, seems more a reflection on where European banks are coming from.” Coming out of a week that saw the ECB clearly out-hawk the FOMC, I’m inclined to think the local period of broad European outperformance is done.

    9. Good people of Gen X, click here for some enjoyable Gen X content: link. my favorites: #4 (fix the TV by pounding on it the right way) … #16 (there were hours where no one knew where we were) … #22 (remembering phone numbers) … #27 (blowing inside Nintendo cartridges) … #30 (the smoking section in a restaurant).

    10. I’m inclined to think the US consumer enters 2023 with a handful of significant tailwinds: sustained and significant wage growth, a y/y decline in US gasoline prices and a 9% raise for 70mm retired Americans come January. This chart from Jan Hatzius zeroes in on real disposable income growth … note the important trend shift in the red diamond from 2022 through 2023 (this all makes me a little resistant to completely abandon the inflation narrative and embrace the recession narrative):

    11. As mentioned before, one should acknowledge their market biases. This will not come as a surprise, but I fully concede an inherent home-field bias towards the US. Therefore, this chart is cause for some introspection … The ratio of MSCI US over MSCI World ex-US (thanks to Scott Rubner for pointing out the inflection):

    12. This surprised me a little bit … over the past three decades, “the January effect” has essentially pulled forward to November (link for pro subs):

    13. To conclude, three big picture charts on flow-of-funds and the broader industry. While the underlying trends here speak for themselves, my instinct is next year will see active strategies outperform:

    More in the full note from Tony P available to pro subs in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 19:00

  • TWITTER FILES Supplemental: How The FBI Bullied Twitter Over Lack Of 'Foreign Influence' Evidence
    TWITTER FILES Supplemental: How The FBI Bullied Twitter Over Lack Of ‘Foreign Influence’ Evidence

    Journalist Matt Taibbi just dropped the latest series of ever-incriminating signals from The Twitter Files, with a supplement to his recent discussion of how Twitter became a de facto Ministry of Truth dissent-killer for The FBI.

    As a reminder, this is the fourth topic released under The Twitter Files:

    This supplemental to The FBI Subsidiary thread explains how the agency bullied Twitter into dismissing its own findings that “state propaganda” was not a thing on the platform and the stunningly circular media-to-govt agency-to-media circle-jerk that is mis-described as ‘sources’ for any and every rumor or narrative-confirming lie that is possible.

    As Matt Taibbi writes at his Substack: On Friday, I posted a series of exchanges between Twitter and the FBI. One that required a bit too much explaining was left out. But it’s an important document, because it clearly demonstrates that Twitter will not only take requests from the government, it will even act quickly to align its analyses with its “partners.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    2. In July of 2020, San Francisco FBI agent Elvis Chan tells Twitter executive Yoel Roth to expect written questions from the Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF), the inter-agency group that deals with cyber threats.

    3.The questionnaire authors seem displeased with Twitter for implying, in a July 20th “DHS/ODNI/FBI/Industry briefing,” that “you indicated you had not observed much recent activity from official propaganda actors on your platform.”

    4 .One would think that would be good news. The agencies seemed to feel otherwise.

    5.Chan underscored this:

    “There was quite a bit of discussion within the USIC to get clarifications from your company,” he wrote, referring to the United States Intelligence Community. 

    6.The task force demanded to know how Twitter came to its unpopular conclusion.

    Oddly, it included a bibliography of public sources – including a Wall Street Journal article – attesting to the prevalence of foreign threats, as if to show Twitter they got it wrong. 

    7.Roth, receiving the questions, circulated them with other company executives, and complained that he was “frankly perplexed by the requests here, which seem more like something we’d get from a congressional committee than the Bureau.”

    8.He added he was not “comfortable with the Bureau (and by extension the IC) demanding written answers.”

    The idea of the FBI acting as conduit for the Intelligence Community is interesting, given that many agencies are barred from domestic operations. 

    9. He then sent another note internally, saying the premise of the questions was “flawed,” because “we’ve been clear that official state propaganda is definitely a thing on Twitter.” Note the italics for emphasis.

    10. Roth suggested they “get on the phone with Elvis ASAP and try to straighten this out,” to disabuse the agencies of any notion that state propaganda is not a “thing” on Twitter. 

    11. This exchange is odd among other things because some of the “bibliography” materials cited by the FITF are sourced to intelligence officials, who in turn cited the public sources. 

    12. The FBI responded to Friday’s report by saying it “regularly engages with private sector entities to provide information specific to identified foreign malign influence actors’ subversive, undeclared, covert, or criminal activities.”

    13. That may be true, but we haven’t seen that in the documents to date. Instead, we’ve mostly seen requests for moderation involving low-follower accounts belonging to ordinary Americans – and Billy Baldwin. 

    Watch @bariweiss and @ShellenbergerMD for more from the Twitter Files.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 18:30

  • Ukraine Attempted 'Decapitation Strike' Of Russia's Top General, Even As US Tried To Stop It
    Ukraine Attempted ‘Decapitation Strike’ Of Russia’s Top General, Even As US Tried To Stop It

    A lengthy and wide-ranging New York Times assessment of “Putin’s War” detailing the last ten months of how a “walk in the park” became a catastrophe for Russia – as the story is sub headed – includes a particular bombshell buried deep within the narrative which has yet to be subject of widespread reporting.

    US officials cited in the report say that Ukraine’s military and intelligence attempted to assassinate General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, even after American officials urged against such a brazen action of unpredictable consequences, on fears it would invite uncontrollable Russian military escalation. 

    While the key details embedded within the dozens of pages-long NYT Saturday report have received scant notice in broader US mainstream media, Russian state media has certainly already taken note, with TASS – among others – highlighting it.

    Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Minister of defense, via AP

    The alleged Ukrainian attempt for a ‘decapitation strike’ on Russia’s top commander and Putin’s military right-hand during the planning phase involved Washington pleading for Kiev to call off an attack, only for US officials to find out they already launched it.

    It reportedly happened in late April, during a time period in which unnamed American officials boasted that US intelligence was helping the Ukrainians take out Russian generals who were positioned on or just behind front-lines of fighting, as we detailed at the time.

    In its new reporting, the Times says that last Spring, Russia’s top military brass decided it was necessary for generals to make trips to the front lines due to worsening morale: “But the generals made a deadly mistake: They positioned themselves near antennas and communications arrays, making them easy to find, the Americans said.” NYT describes further as follows in this key section of the report, thus allowing US intel to begin identifying top commanders’ whereabouts on the Ukrainian battlefield:

    “Ukraine started killing Russian generals, yet the risky Russian visits to the front lines continued. Finally, in late April, the Russian chief of the general staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, made secret plans to go himself.”

    The US apparently knew of the ‘secret’ trip in real-time, leading to the dilemma of whether to share the information with the Ukrainians. But the Times’ sources say Washington “kept the information from the Ukrainians, worried they would strike.”

    The driving concern was that a provocation of that magnitude would increase the likelihood of direct war between nuclear-armed superpowers. The NY Times reveals what happened next: 

    The Ukrainians learned of the general’s plans anyway, putting the Americans in a bind. After checking with the White House, senior American officials asked the Ukrainians to call off the attack.

    “We told them not to do it,” a senior American official said. “We were like, ‘Hey, that’s too much.’”

    The message arrived too late. Ukrainian military officials told the Americans that they had already launched their attack on the general’s position.

    Dozens of Russians were killed in the strike, officials said. General Gerasimov wasn’t one of them.

    Gerasimov is the equivalent of Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, the highest-ranking military officer…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And as the report concludes of that key time period of April to May, “Russian military leaders scaled back their visits to the front after that.”

    In May, unnamed senior American officials had begun leaking to US media greater intelligence-sharing with Kiev. This had reportedly led to the Ukrainians having killed in pinpoint strikes an estimated 12 Russian generals, which during those opening months of the invasion was an astonishingly high number (given the rarity in any war of deaths from among these highest officer ranks).

    The month prior to that, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin bluntly admitted of policy aims in Ukraine that the US wants to see a greatly “weakened” Russia. “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree it cannot do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” he had said at the time.

    If the Ukrainians had managed to kill Gen. Gerasimov, it’s very possible the world could have already been in the throes of nuclear Armageddon. But thankfully this scenario until now has been avoided, but very narrowly …if the fresh NYT revelations are indeed accurate.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 18:00

  • Gold Is Money: Everything Else Is Credit
    Gold Is Money: Everything Else Is Credit

    Authored by Claudio Grass via The Mises Institute,

    Throughout the better part of 2022 there has been one question that has consistently, and predictably, popped up in conversations with my friends, clients and readers. Those who know me and are familiar with my ideas are well aware of my position on precious metals and the multiple roles they serve, so I can’t blame them for them for being curious whether I still “stick to my guns” in this era of irrationality in the markets and the economy.

    Especially for those not versed in monetary history, which is regrettably the vast majority of the population, it is natural to wonder: “If gold is such a great hedge against inflation, why hasn’t it skyrocketed now that inflation is finally here?”

    Well, there are a couple of reasons for that, some more obvious than others. The interest rate hikes that the Fed spearheaded and repeatedly escalated are the most straightforward explanation. At least that’s the answer most mainstream economists and analysts will give you. And it makes sense: If gold pays you no interest for holding it, then why not switch to something that does? This is the mindset of most investors and that weakens demand, which in turn drags the price down. That’s how the theory goes anyway. 

    If, however, we’re willing to examine the question a little more closely, we might begin by scrutinizing its premises. The question takes for granted that gold has underperformed this year. But has it really? If you’re saving, getting your paycheck and paying your bills in a currency other than the dollar, you’re likely to have a very different view on this issue. In euros, gold is up around 6.6 percent. In yen, it’s up 17.9 percent In Egyptian pounds is up over 45 percent. What this clearly shows us, is that perspective matters. 

    And for those that can see the bigger picture, that perspective is even clearer: Thinking about the gold price in terms of any fiat currency, not just the USD, is not really helpful. It’s not gold’s value that fluctuates, what fluctuates is the perceived and totally imaginary value of all these useless pieces of paper. After all, as all long-term, responsible precious metals investors know very well, there’s only one important trend and it’s an obvious one, as the chart below shows.

    As I mentioned many times, I do not believe that short-term price considerations should play a pivotal role in the decision-making process of investors who hold gold for the right reasons and who understand why they do. What is important, however, is to look beyond the mainstream headlines and to be able to separate the signal from the noise. In our case, for example, one can find a million analyses and forecasts on gold’s outlook, all highlighting superficial dynamics and featuring simplistic arguments. Monetary policy projections are chief among them, and the narrative goes “Since we expect central bankers to do so and so, gold is projected to react in this way.”

    Well, instead of trying to divine the intentions of central bankers, to guess what they’ll do and how it might affect the gold market, wouldn’t it make more sense to look at what those central bankers have actually done, rather than what they say? Cause what they did in 2022 speaks volumes: Globally, central banks accumulated gold reserves at a pace unseen since 1967, back when the dollar was still backed by the precious metal.

    Consider this for a moment and then recall all their official statements and projections about the economy and how a recession is avoidable, about inflation and how it’s definitely, absolutely under control and about their faith in their own currencies. Feel free to draw your own conclusions about what’s coming. 

    Looking forward to the next year, it is clear that there are many reasons to be concerned. The conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of abating and all the preexisting problems it seriously aggravated can also be expected to linger, if not get worse. Inflation is set to continue to plague the real economy, no matter how hard government statisticians try to cook the numbers: Even if CPI goes down, real households will continue to feel the pain. There’s an abundance of supportive forces working in favor of gold and the dynamics are so striking that even the big banks couldn’t help but notice. In early December, Saxo Bank put out an “outrageous” price forecast of $3,000/ounce, in its most “extreme” scenario of a worldwide “war economy.”

    While price gains will certainly be more than welcome for physical gold investors, the metal’s real value is likely to become apparent too in the months and years to come. As States get increasingly desperate and fail to find a way out of the fiscal, monetary and sociopolitical hole they dug for themselves, they are bound to get more aggressive, as they’ve always been known to do. Threats to financial sovereignty, government power grabs, increased monitoring and control over private assets and savings, are all likely to become more dire. And under these conditions, physical gold really shines, especially when it’s securely and compliantly held outside one’s own jurisdiction, as well as, outside the traditional banking system.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 17:30

  • 'SPAC Winter' Accelerates But "Trough Of Disillusionment" Could Be Ahead
    ‘SPAC Winter’ Accelerates But “Trough Of Disillusionment” Could Be Ahead

    The days of “SPAC Jesus,” Chamath Palihapitiya, have been over for a while.

    It has been apparent that the special-purpose acquisition companies (SPAC) bubble peaked in 1Q21 and has been in freefall ever since.

    The Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) crackdown on SPACs, top investment banks scaling back activity in the space, and mounting macroeconomic headwinds have led to a surge in SPAC liquidations and Initial Business Combination (IBC) terminations, as well as perhaps the start of a possible de-SPAC bankruptcy wave. 

    The latest figures about the SPAC market collapse come from a recent note via Water Tower Research’s chief analyst Robert Sassoon, who told clients, “one-quarter of the companies de-SPACed since the start of 2021, currently trading below the $1 level.” 

    “We are likely to see more de-SPAC bankruptcies in addition to the six that filed for bankruptcy this year, but at some point, the value hunters, whether they be strategic or financial buyers, will look through the de-SPAC wreckage for the hidden gems,” Sassoon said. 

    Sassoon’s note titled “SPACs and the Hype Cycle” provides the view the winter cycle in SPACs could be nearing a trough, but before that happens, more pain is likely in the space. 

    “While we think there will be more de-SPAC bankruptcies declared, we may be close to the trough of disillusionment stage of the cycle. This may be the point that value hunters may be readying themselves to seek out the hidden gems among the de-SPAC wreckage.” 

    The analyst pointed out the model used by management consulting firm Gartner about the new adoption of new technologies, particularly the adoption life cycle of new technology. With the hype cycle over, Sassoon believes a “trough of disillusionment” could soon arrive. 

    Even though a trough in SPACs is inevitable, that doesn’t mean a bust cycle can worsen in the intermediate timeframe. Sassoon showed liquidations and IBC terminations are soaring this year, with the risk of increased de-SPAC bankruptcies next year. 

    He said, “the surge of liquidations is that it is helping to accelerate the re-balancing of the SPAC market.”

    Here’s a complete list of all the SPAC liquidations completed in the first half of December. 

    Nearly a quarter of all de-SPACs trade below $1. 

    What could be evident is that the SPAC winter cycle might worsen amid a challenging macroeconomic environment but could be nearing a trough, as Sassoon’s note explains. Our view would include the need for the Federal Reserve to loosen financial conditions for that to happen, which could occur as soon as late ’23, if not early ’24. 

    One infamous British banker and politician from the Rothschild family, Baron Rothschild, once said the best time to buy is “when there is blood in the streets.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 17:00

  • Nuclear Fusion Incinerates Climate Crazies
    Nuclear Fusion Incinerates Climate Crazies

    Authored by Thomas McArdle via The Epoch Times,

    Your attention please. This century’s scheduled performance of the apocalypse has been postponed indefinitely, ladies and gentlemen. Your tickets will be refunded at the box office…

    On Dec. 5, 2022, scientists at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory’s National Ignition Facility in California aimed 192 laser beams at a pinhead-sized target containing deuterium and tritium and a fusion reaction succeeded in releasing more energy than the amount delivered by the lasers. But this achievement of inertial confinement fusion is not only the first time in history that nuclear fusion has worked under controlled conditions (in contrast to a thermonuclear bomb); those lasers also disintegrated the green energy fanatics’ arguments in favor of dismantling the world’s 90 percent-plus fossil fuel-based $85 trillion economy. They have now been discredited as much as Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons’s sloppy claims of having conducted fusion at room temperature in 1989, despite the two’s up-until-then impressive scientific credentials.

    Until Dec. 5, California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s banning of gasoline-powered cars by 2035 was excessive in the extreme; now it is simply illogical. The global rise of nearly 3 degrees Celsius in temperatures by the end of the century that the United Nations fears will now be headed off in half that time, likely less, thanks to mankind’s scientific ingenuity. The same kind of scientific ingenuity that in latter decades has allowed oil companies to reach and extract more than 7 billion barrels of oil and 600 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in “impossible to reach” locations thanks to the engineering breakthrough of hydrofracking. The results have included millions of new jobs for Americans, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, lower energy prices, and (until Joe Biden became president of the United States) American energy independence.

    Nuclear fusion is the means of energy generation conducted within the sun, and for mankind’s needs it is a source of energy that is for all practical purposes infinite. Unlike the nuclear fission utilized in today’s nuclear power plants, fusion would not generate unstable nuclei that remain radioactive for millions of years and must thus be transported for permanent disposal to nuclear waste sites. Nor would fusion entail the risk of accidents releasing fatal amounts of radioactivity to populated areas (the danger of which from fission reactors the nuclear power industry has minimized in recent decades); nor could a fusion apparatus be used to construct nuclear weapons.

    Now that we know inertial confinement fusion works in a controlled laboratory setting, the challenges in bringing about its widespread industrial use, which pertain to energy delivery to the target; availability of tritium or the development of the use of an alternative such as boron or helium-3; symmetry control; heating and density of the fuel; hydrodynamic stability; and shockwave convergence, can all be expected to be solved within the next 40 years. The United States, after all, is the nation that constructed the hydrogen bomb in a tight time frame, landed a man on the moon within a decade, and invented the microprocessor whose improved versions in budget smartphones of today dwarf the computation power of NASA’s supercomputer of the 1960s.

    And none of the progress that can be expected from this month’s breakthrough precludes further study and experimentation of other possible forms of nuclear fusion—colliding beam fusion, inertial electrostatic confinement, muon catalyzing, photoelectric fusion, and hybrid fusion-fission. Like fracking, breakthroughs in these areas can arrive unexpectedly and change the game entirely.

    But if you think the left, both here and around the world, is going to stand for their mission to cripple capitalism being derailed by a scientific breakthrough, you don’t know them. Fusion opens the floodgates of energy; radical environmentalists, on the other hand, want energy to trickle down and be rationed in accordance with government edicts. Instead of a world of limitless possibility in which even those who are now poor can live out their dreams, the left’s dream is a world of severe restrictions on economic prosperity and individualism, a global economy in which solar panels and windmills and mass transit are forced on the public as a duty. A society in which the freedom of driving your own family car is replaced by the mobility limits, enforced conformity, and artificial community—not to mention discomforts, lack of privacy, and crime—of the bus and train for all (except possibly the likes of Biden climate envoy John Kerry and other climate policemen among our governmental betters, who are wedded to private luxury travel).

    Beyond the bugaboo of possible accidents and the health effects of marginally increased radiation produced by fission plants, the anti-nuclear movement’s arguments (pdf) against nuclear energy have revolved more in recent years around high costs, and the many years it inevitably takes to plan, license, and construct new plants; and in the years to come we can expect them to insist on unreasonably heavy regulatory hurdles imposed by government when fusion becomes industrially feasible. In other words, artificial impediments to the realization of fusion’s benefits for mankind.

    There can be no forgetting, however, that the environmentalist left is driven by the irrationality of pure fanaticism, and their objective is to revolutionize society into complete unrecognizability. Only in September, Jane Fonda was asked how her new climate-focused political action committee “will be able to deliver on a fully de-carbonized America.”

    Instead of presenting any science, Fonda replied: “There would be no climate crisis if there was no racism. There would be no climate crisis if there was no misogyny,” adding that “we need to take a good look at” America’s free market economic system. “All of the experts, and I’m not one, say this will force us and this will be an opportunity to restructure the way humanity lives on the planet. … Between now and 2030, we could cut fossil fuels in half, but then we have to do a whole lot of other things.”

    We can be sure that in the coming years Democrats will invent obstacles to private research on nuclear fusion, and that “Big Fusion” will replace Big Oil as the new demons of capitalism. Fusion bursts one of the Democratic Party’s biggest political bubbles: Democrats won’t be able to fundraise on the idea of the world coming to an end when a fusion-powered economy is a few decades away and will solve climate change and all the other energy problems they can concoct.

    But if we want nuclear fusion to come on line cheaply as soon as possible and produce the definitive solution to a hotter earth, we will let private industry be in charge, largely unfettered, instead of dreaming up a plethora of new, excessive regulations.

    And in the meantime, with total global oil shale resources 1,000 times greater than the more than 1.6 trillion barrels of crude oil reserves in the world that by themselves will last us another half century; plus 100 years of clean natural gas that is now reachable within the United States alone thanks to fracking, the fusion breakthrough means no apocalypse for our grandchildren to suffer after all.

    So in the near term, keep solar panels and windmills secondary, and drill, baby, drill.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 16:30

  • El Paso Mayor Finally Declares State Of Emergency After Mass Invasion Of Migrants
    El Paso Mayor Finally Declares State Of Emergency After Mass Invasion Of Migrants

    Better late than never?  Democrat Mayor of El Paso, Oscar Leeser, has been refusing to declare a state of emergency in El Paso for weeks as illegal migrant caravans flood into the city across the southern border, but it would seem that he has finally seen the light.  Leeser’s announcement comes at the same time as a declaration of emergency from Denver Mayor (and Democrat) Michael Hancock, who now admits that the city cannot continue to support migrants transported there from El Paso.

    El Paso has run out of funding to accommodate the 2400+ people entering the city every day from Mexico and is asking for outside assistance to deal with the influx of “asylum seekers.”  While the Biden Administration continues to ignore and even obscure the crisis on the southern border, leaked videos of enormous migrant groups lining up for entry at El Paso gates are beginning to circulate, debunking the claim that the White House is taking action.

    Biden’s Press Secretary, Karen Jean-Pierre, was recently mocked for her assertion that Biden has been “doing the work from day one” to secure the border.  Clearly, the evidence shows that she is lying:

    The refusal of the White House and Democrat run cities to act honestly when it comes to the migrant crisis suggests a desire to avoid political accountability (either that, or an agenda to deliberately destabilize the country).  If they admit to the crisis, they then have to admit that their immigration policies are a failure.  So, they attempt to gaslight the American public and hide the truth.  Karen Jean-Pierre even attempted to blame Republicans for the situation instead of taking responsibility.  

    The unprecedented wave of illegal immigrants has resulted in a historic number of apprehensions (at least 2.4 million in the past year) as well as fiscal disaster in the cities that accommodate migrants instead of arresting them and sending them back across the border.  The impending end of Title 42 this month has accelerated the threat.  The law requires migrants to be transported back to Mexico immediately after being stopped by Border Patrol, instead of allowing them to remain in the US for months or even years while waiting for courts to decide their citizenship status.  

    Migrants in many cases are able to collect extensive welfare if designated as asylum seekers or refugees, and Census Bureau data shows that at least 63% of them do in fact try to obtain benefits.  Biden is also pressing for a general amnesty for millions of migrants that are already residing in the US, which is encouraging even more border crossings.

    In 2017, multiple Democrat controlled cities in Texas including El Paso sought to obstruct Texas law SB 4, which was designed to prevent sanctuary city status from being used within the state.  The law was passed, but El Paso has continued to encourage an endless river of migrants into Texas anyway.  Now, the city leadership finally acknowledges they are in trouble, with an Arctic front bearing down on Texas and thousands of migrants on the streets with no available shelter.

    Texas Governor Greg Abbott faced a flurry of attacks from progressive politicians after he initiated a program to bus migrants out of Texas and leave them on the doorsteps of leftist cities like New York, Washington DC and Chicago.  Democrat “strongholds” for illegal migrants are being quickly exposed as unprepared and hypocritical; they expect border states to absorb the invasion of millions of migrants while they are incapable of dealing with a mere handful.  

    The busing controversy culminated with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis transporting nearly 50 migrants to the elitist vacation island of Martha’s Vineyard.  The move created a firestorm of outrage from leftists and accusations of “human exploitation” against conservative state leaders.  

    Hilariously, the “humanitarian” progressives of Martha’s Vineyard were quick to buy the migrants cheap lunches in a highly publicized PR stunt, and then they quietly loaded them onto a bus the next day.  They were shipped off the island to a camp on a military base.  None of them were allowed to stay, none of them were offered housing and none of them were offered jobs by officials or residents at Martha’s Vineyard. 
     
    The “do as we say, not as we do” ideology of the political left when it comes to illegal immigration has been revealed, and economic reality is becoming undeniable.  The US simply cannot continue to allow millions of non-citizens to enter our nation unchecked.  It is not practical from an economic standpoint nor is it practical from a social and cultural standpoint.  If the trend continues the crisis will turn into outright disaster.   

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 16:00

  • Why This Policy Mistake Will Be Worse Than The Last
    Why This Policy Mistake Will Be Worse Than The Last

    By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

    The Path to Q1 Deflation

    The odds that we get at least one month of negative inflation data in Q1 is increasing. Will deflation become a concern in Q1? That is possible (and maybe even probable) if we continue on the course of action that we are currently taking. I do not believe that we will be worried about inflation in a meaningful way by the end of Q1. In fact, as you can tell from Inflation Risk Factors and 2 + 2 = 5, I think that we have already set ourselves on a course that we will regret.

    Today we will outline how and why Q1 deflation is a bigger risk than having high inflation in Q1. I use the term “risk” because the deflation will be linked to a recession that starts sooner and will be worse than consensus (Friday’s data makes me wonder if it hasn’t already started).

    Inflation

    Let’s start with a closer look at where we are with inflation today.

    Inflation Elimination/Simplification

    This chart includes three common measures of inflation – CPI, CPI Core, and PCE Core. The point of this chart is to justify only looking at Core CPI. They all move more or less in line, with overall CPI being a little more volatile and PCE being a month behind in terms of data. So, when we use CPI in charts in later sections, we will use Core CPI because we don’t give up much information in terms of the narrative that we are creating and the charts will be much simpler to understand.

    Core CPI – Chart Looking Better

    Two things that stand out on this chart:

    1. We have not seen an increase in the monthly data for 3 months (the trend is looking good). If this was a stock chart, it is starting to look like one that is giving up the gains and returning to normal. I’m not sure that charting and technicals are the right ways to look at economic data, but they are meant to take the emotion out of decisions and help us recognize patterns (this may be more relevant than we think).
    2. The past two months have been at levels that are below the top end of the range for the five years leading up to COVID. The past two months are “nothing burgers” in terms of inflation if examined from an objective viewpoint. Wasn’t the goal to get inflation lower? Wasn’t that the policy intent? Hasn’t it worked?

    The Lag Effect in Action

    I’ve used the two-year yield here as it is a good representation of what the market is pricing in for monetary policy at the front-end (the 10-year “marches to the beat of many drums” and the front-end only responds to the actual hikes, not the anticipation of hikes, which is a monetary policy tool in and of itself).

    This chart, while volatile, seems to offer some reasonably clear evidence that:

    1. In 2021, the easy money helped drive inflation.
    2. There is a lag effect in terms of monetary policy reducing inflation. Rates started rising in late 2021 and accelerated in 2022. Inflation data remained uncomfortably high as rates rose.
    3. Rates continued to rise, and inflation started to behave much better. I guess you could argue that it took higher yields to tame inflation (and that certainly helps), but I suspect part of it is that it takes time for higher yields to make their mark. People don’t lease a new car every day and not every mortgage resets immediately. Not everyone changes their prices to reflect changes in behavior. Certain purchases, already committed to, will still happen. The cost of carrying inventory goes up slowly as well. There is a lag effect, and my belief is that much of the “good” behavior we are seeing in inflation data is a response to prior hikes and the more recent hikes are only beginning to kick in!
    4. For the soft or even “Squishy Landing” crew, the fact that 2-year yields are stable recently is good. We are pricing in less future action so there is a chance that more of the policy decisions are priced in. However, this is wishful thinking as the inflation reaction is heavily skewed to prior hikes and actions, so we haven’t fully seen the impact yet (a bit disturbing since inflation for the past couple of months looks to be more and more under control).

    The lag effect is real and even with that lag, inflation is behaving better. What happens when more hikes (that have already been announced) kick in? Deflation seems to come to mind, but we have potentially only just begun to go down that path.

    Let’s Not Forget the Balance Sheet

    Quantitative Easing:

    • Directly impacts asset prices (the riskier the asset the bigger the benefit from QE).
    • The wealth effect is real in that it affects spending and is therefore inflationary.
    • I believe that QT reduces asset prices. Since they are only using run-off, it isn’t as impactful as buying long-maturity assets, but it is real and will decrease wealth (in stocks, bonds, housing, and crypto to name a few areas).
    • Like other parts of monetary policy, it is not always a straight line on a daily basis and there is a lag effect (it takes time for the increase in wealth to convert to greater spending, and vice versa).

    So, while the market is fixated on terminal rate projections (more on that in the next section), maybe we shouldn’t ignore the impact of QT which no one has talked about changing (and they shouldn’t). I’m convinced that someone will win a Nobel Prize for highlighting how dangerous QE is as a policy tool.

    To summarize this first section:

    • Recent inflation data is pretty good and getting into the “normal” zone.
    • The lag effect seems real, making the changes we have already seen in inflation more powerful.
    • Balance sheet reduction is likely affecting asset prices and inflation.
    • If not for 2021’s “failure” to identify inflation and kill QE early, we’d be pretty comfortable with the recent inflation data. We were still doing QE in 2022 even as we were discussing rate hikes.

    Part of me would like to type QED now and say that we’ve proved our point and enjoy the rest of the weekend, but there is a lot more to write about to convince you why deflation is the path that we are on.

    Don’t “They” Know Better?

    If the policy makers had a great record of success, then I wouldn’t be worried that we are making a huge mistake and their efforts to fight inflation risk are creating a deeper recession than is necessary. But they did miss inflation and there is no reason to believe that they are any more likely to get it correct this time. In fact, you could argue that they are more likely to get it wrong, because they are dealing with the damage to their reputations from missing inflation and may have a problem acting objectively.

    The DOTS – 1 Year Apart

    This week the Fed spent time convincing the market that the terminal rate needs to be higher. This time last year not a single person had rates above 3% (at any time) out to 2024! By this time last year, the “transitory” story had started to shift, but we were still doing QE and talking about possible hikes, though the consensus was for less than 1% by the end of 2022! This wasn’t just a little wrong, it was very wrong! Sure, Russia’s invasion was unknown, but all throughout the year they increased the dots and terminal rate. I look at this dot plot and it gives me the energy to continue to the next section. At least I can be on the record if their hiking goes “pear shaped” and hurts the economy and the country far worse than was likely necessary!

    Oil and Sauron

    There are several “next steps” I could take on the path to deflation, but let’s start with oil. I guess Sauron could refer to Putin, but I was thinking more in terms of “one ring to rule them all.” There is no commodity as important as oil because it permeates the economy. It impacts the cost of producing goods, the cost of shipping goods, and how much money consumers have to spend on goods.

    If Russia has to capitulate and come to some sort of a truce oil will drop even further, but that is not part of the current analysis.

    Oil – Not Great, but Not Horrible

    Despite OPEC+ curtailing production, the ongoing war in Ukraine, the alleged re-opening of China, and the U.S. making some purchases to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, oil prices are coming down. From a CPI perspective (not Core because it excludes energy), it will be a good thing.

    The two biggest “benefits” are that production and transportation costs will drop which will help to reduce inflation. But as discussed in Incongruous we should be careful what we wish for.

    I use the 6-month forward WTI contract to smooth things out, but typically as oil goes up, stocks do well (and vice versa). That was the case from 2016 until just recently.

    The same pattern holds true for the 2003 to 2011 period (with a couple of short exceptions).

    Even from 1999 until 2002 the pattern held up pretty well.

    In any case, I’m not sure we should cheer low oil prices. Maybe what is counteracting all of the potential reasons for oil to be higher is that the economy is slowing much faster than is currently showing up in the official data.

    I argued (vehemently) back in 2015 that higher energy prices were great for jobs and the economy overall and I still believe that.

    At the time, energy was a big part of the high yield market which struggled during that timeframe (there was even an “ex-energy” ETF launched in early 2016). I think back to how that one sector so heavily affected some markets and the economy and cannot help but think of parallels to today.

    The Disruptive Economy

    We highlighted this so much last weekend in Inflation Drivers that I won’t rehash the argument here. What I will add is that when I look at some jobs data, “management” makes up 6.3% of the workforce but 13.4% of the income and it seems like those jobs are under pressure.

    Computer and math jobs are only 3.3% of the workforce, but 5.7% of the costs. This area is still strong, but I am seeing the reshuffling of jobs as some big companies are cutting back here.

    These two areas, which rank 1 and 3 in terms of wages (legal is number 2) could face pressure. That will make even small amounts of jobs lost more impactful.

    Just like “energy” was the main focal point of economic (and market) problems in 2015, “disruption” seems to be front and center right now. However, while this sector isn’t a big part of the debt markets, it is a large part of the equity markets (and alternatives) and why there could be a lot more pressure if the slowdown persists (rates aren’t the main driver here, but they are not helping).

    Take This Job Data and Shove It

    In 2 + 2 = 5 we highlight the issues around job data, particularly the Philly Fed’s report that Q2 jobs were overstated by more than 1,000,000 in the NFP reports!

    The year started with 1.3 million more workers on the Establishment Survey than on the Household Survey. They differed by 950k in Q2 (maybe the Philly Fed report has some substance).

    There are a lot of issues with both sets of data, but it seems a bit “optimistic” to only focus on one measure, especially after the work the Philly Fed just did.

    To put this in a different perspective, in March the unemployment rate was 3.6% (it is now 3.7%). That is based on the Household Survey. The Establishment Survey showed that 2 million more jobs were created since then, so if those jobs had shown up in the Household Survey, the unemployment rate would be about 2.2%. Just think about that. If the jobs in the Establishment Survey are correct, even from just the start of the year, we’d have sub 3% unemployment. Does this feel like an economy running that hot?

    There are so many questions on the quality of the job data (and ADP is somewhere in between since they started republishing this year with their amended methodology) that it seems difficult to base our view on the job market on these numbers.

    ISM Jobs Story Seems More Realistic

    2021 was HOT! Lately, not so much! Not awful, though several months below 50 this year (even for services) doesn’t hint at a job market that is out of control, especially for the high paying jobs that really drive inflation!

    I’m trying to get better at pulling data directly from indeed.com. I’m told, by some good people, that it is dropping faster than JOLTS, but I cannot yet verify that myself (at least not in an intelligible way).

    This Policy Mistake Will Be Worse Than the Last

    It is bad to miss inflation (especially when there were so many telltale signs that it was real and not transitory) but it will be worse to trigger a recession that is avoidable.

    Who cares what the stock market does over a day or a week? Who cares if financial conditions improve a bit when so many other factors (including QT) are combining in a “perfect storm” to “normalize” inflation!

    I am extremely worried that we have already done too much, and that we are pushing our economy into unnecessary danger zones when we should be focused on transforming our energy industry, redeveloping supply chains, improving trading relations, and ensuring that we are “safe” from pandemics (or at least more in control of the necessary materials).

    The fight against inflation is now misplaced, and I’d rather see us living with 3% inflation and striving to accomplish a lot, rather than creating unnecessary job losses and opportunities for our competitors.

    The path to deflation is becoming less avoidable and beating inflation (so badly) is not the victory that we should be striving for.

    This week’s “risk-off” trading with low yields and lower equities may be a harbinger of things to come based on our apparent policy priorities and data “analysis.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 15:30

  • When Will Air Travel Return To Pre-Pandemic Levels?
    When Will Air Travel Return To Pre-Pandemic Levels?

    Many industries were hit hard by the global pandemic, but it can be argued that air travel suffered one of the most severe blows.

    The aviation industry as a whole suffered an estimated $370 billion loss in global revenue because of COVID-19. And, as Visual Capitalists’ Carmen Ang explains below, while air travel has been slowly recovering from the trough, flight passenger traffic has yet to fully bounce back.

    Where is the industry at in 2022 compared to pre-COVID times, and when is air passenger travel expected to return to regular levels? This graphic by Julie R. Peasley uses data from IATA to show current and projected air passenger ridership.

    Air Travel Traffic: 2021 and 2022

    After an incredibly difficult 2020, the airline industry started to see significant improvements in travel frequency. But compared to pre-pandemic levels, there’s a lot of ground to cover.

    In 2021, overall passenger numbers only reached 47% of 2019 levels. This influx was largely driven by domestic travel, with international passenger numbers only reaching 27% of pre-COVID levels.

    From a regional perspective, Central America experienced one of the fastest recoveries. In 2021, overall passenger numbers in the region had reached 72% of 2019 levels, and they are projected to reach 96% by the end of 2022.

    In fact, the Americas as a whole has seen a quick recovery. Both North America and South America also reached above 50% of 2019 ridership in 2021, and are projected to reach 94% and 88% ridership in 2022, respectively.

    On the opposite end of the spectrum, Asia Pacific has experienced the slowest recovery. This is likely due to stricter lockdowns and travel restrictions put into effect in this region (which was harder hit by SARS in 2003), especially in places like Shanghai.

    Forecasting Traffic in 2023 and Beyond

    While recovery has looked different from region to region, airlines are largely expected to see a full recovery to their ridership levels by 2025.

    This recovery is a signifier of a much broader mindset shift, as governments continue to reassess their COVID-19 management strategies.

    But while the future seems promising, IATA stressed that the forecast does not take into account the potential impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical concerns, which could have far-reaching consequences on the global economy (and travel) in the coming years.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 15:00

  • The Return Of Quant Investing
    The Return Of Quant Investing

    By Stephan M Kessler, global head of quantitative investment strategies (QIS) research at Morgan Stanley, and Vishwanath Tirupattur, global head of Quantitative Research at Morgan Stanley,

    As year end approaches, one thing is clear: we will remember 2022 as a dismal year for traditional investment strategies across asset classes.

    With around 10 trading days remaining, major equity markets across the globe have posted double-digit negative returns for the year, with the S&P 500 down ~19%. Government bonds, which typically come to the rescue when equities see a significant drawdown, didn’t deliver as global central banks raised policy rates dramatically, taking the World Government Bond Index down ~17% year to date. Credit markets declined as well, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Credit Total Return Index posting a negative total return of ~15%. For traditional investment strategies, there really was nowhere to hide. Nevertheless, 2022 has turned out to be a decent year for systematic factor or quant investing. As measured by the SG Alternative Risk Premia Index, quant strategies posted a healthy positive total return of 3.9%, providing both diversification and capital appreciation in a difficult market environment. We will explore why systematic factor strategies performed relatively well and what 2023 may hold for them.

    We are often asked how quant strategies, which are predicated on historical data, can handle a volatile market environment with few historical precedents. Don’t current dynamics “break” quant strategies? In our view, quant’s strong outperformance in 2022 resulted from a diverse set of catalysts. We think that the monetary policy tightening unleashed by global central banks led to substantial and durable macro trends that could be captured by “trend-following” strategies. A re-emergence of dispersion in interest rates across the globe sparked the revival of “carry” strategies. Equity value investing re-emerged as higher rates forced investors to focus more closely on fundamental valuations, increasing the efficiency of the “value” factor. Disruption in valuations related to technological advances has receded – e.g., the normalization of Tesla’s valuation versus the broader auto sector. Similarly, communications sector disrupters have surrendered some of their outperformance. More broadly, we saw the gap between value and growth valuations shrink.

    We think these performance patterns are likely to continue in the coming year. Our economists anticipate a transition from an environment with generally rising policy rates to one where inflationary pressure recedes and our macro strategists look for rates curves to steepen. During this transition, we expect global growth to slow, with G10 GDP growth bottoming at 0.2%Y in 3Q23. Not surprisingly, our chief investment officer Mike Wilson expects US equity markets to sell off in 1Q23, reaching levels as low as 3,000-3,300 for the S&P 500 before ending the year about flat at 3,900. From a quant perspective, these significant market swings tend to favor short-to-medium-term trend-following strategies. As the differences in central bank policies across the globe persist, “carry” returns should be attractive. Indeed, being long bonds in regions with high rates may benefit investors as their holdings appreciate when rates eventually normalize. Finally, defensive value investing tends to be well placed to deliver returns offsetting the higher cost of capital.

    In our 2023 Global Strategy Outlook, we highlighted a range of quantitative strategies that we feel particularly strongly about for 2023. One way to capitalize on the outlook for the continuation of trending markets and peaking rates is through a rates trend-following strategy with a long bias toward rates. While the environment continues to be favorable for value investing, with market volatility remaining high investors should concentrate on undervalued stocks of high quality – crossing value filters with quality filters, in quant speak. Equity value improvements we have suggested in the past – reducing accounting noise, considering sector effects, and incorporating cyclical effects on performance – should be additive. Value-investing benefits extend to rates value strategies as well. In fact, translating our rates strategists’ views into expected returns, the outlook for a rates value strategy is strong.

    Finally, 2022 was challenging for sellers of rates volatility. With policy rates peaking and inflation decelerating, strategies that incorporate systematically selling rates volatility should be profitable in 2023. While we would overweight the strategies outlined above, we continue to emphasize that success in quant investing requires careful portfolio construction that diversifies across different quant strategies.

    Enjoy your Sunday, and we wish you all a festive holiday season and prosperous new year.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 12/18/2022 – 14:30

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Dec 18

Today’s News 18th December 2022

  • 'Absurd' To Call Oath Keepers Insurrectionists Or A National Security Threat, Former FBI Agent Testifies
    ‘Absurd’ To Call Oath Keepers Insurrectionists Or A National Security Threat, Former FBI Agent Testifies

    Authored by Joseph Hanneman via The Epoch Times,

    The Oath Keepers did not try to overthrow the U.S. government on Jan. 6 and are not a threat to national security because the group is anti-tyranny, not anti-government, a former FBI agent and Department of Defense analyst testified Dec. 15-16 in Alaska Superior Court.

    John Guandolo, who handled counter-terrorism and criminal investigations during nearly 13 years as an FBI special agent, said he found “absurd” the idea that Oath Keepers tried to overthrow the federal government. Guandolo was at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in a personal capacity.

    Some of the Oath Keepers might have broken federal laws on Jan. 6 for allegedly trying to delay the counting of Electoral College votes, Guandolo said, “but to conflate that to being the same as the entire organization wants to overthrow the U.S. government by violence … that’s absurd,” Guandolo said. “And I think it’s an unprofessional assessment.”

    Guandolo’s testimony came on the third and fourth days of a state trial to determine if Rep. David Eastman (R-Wasilla) should be removed from office under the Alaska Constitution because he is a life member of the Oath Keepers. Eastman won reelection on Nov. 8 by a 24-point margin.

    Alaska Superior Court Judge Jack McKenna issued a temporary restraining order preventing the state of Alaska from certifying the House 27th District election results until the trial ends.

    Former GOP candidate Randall Kowalke—who left the Republican Party in 2019—sued Eastman personally in July, claiming a loyalty clause in the Alaska Constitution should bar him from office because the Oath Keepers allegedly advocate for the overthrow of the federal government.

    Alaska State Rep. David Eastman (R-Wasilla) was sued in July 2022 in an effort to force him from office for being a member of Oath Keepers. (Photo courtesy of David Eastman)

    Earlier in the bench trial before McKenna, two analysts from centers on domestic extremism testified that the Oath Keepers went into the Capitol on Jan. 6 and tried to overthrow the government.

    ‘A Far Cry’ from Insurrection

    Testifying from his office in Dallas, Guandolo told the judge there is no evidence to support that accusation. He ripped the testimony of analysts Jonathan Lewis and Matthew Kriner as “grossly incomplete” and “wholly unprofessional.”

    Oath Keepers founder Elmer Stewart Rhodes III and Oath Keepers Florida leader Kelly Meggs were found guilty of seditious conspiracy on Nov. 29 for actions on Jan. 6, in a jury trial in U.S. District Court in Washington. Four other defendants were acquitted of seditious conspiracy, but convicted of other offenses.

    “The phrase that I saw most often [in indictments] was that so-and-so intended to affect the government by stopping or delaying the congressional proceeding, which was to certify the election,” Guandolo said when questioned by defense attorney Joseph Miller.

    “That is a far cry from overthrowing the U.S. government by force of violence.”

    Guandolo said the plaintiff’s experts appeared to have pre-existing ideas about the Oath Keepers, because they failed to examine the good work the group does, such as hurricane relief and guarding a bakery against mob violence during protests in Ferguson, Missouri, in the summer of 2014.

    He noted their alleged lack of knowledge of Jan. 6 provocateur Ray Epps, and their failure to interview even one member of the Oath Keepers as evidence.

    In earlier testimony, Lewis, a research fellow at the Program on Extremism at George Washington University, claimed that Epps did not incite people to go into the Capitol on Jan. 6. He said that was a “discredited conspiracy theory.”

    Viral videos showed Epps in downtown Washington on the evening of Jan. 5 saying: “Tomorrow—I don’t even like to say it because I’ll be arrested—we need to go into the Capitol.”

    Guandolo said the plaintiff’s focus “was on only specific negative acts and opining on those specific negative acts, without any mention, and, again, based on their own testimony, no apparent knowledge of the positives and the mission statement across the country at the numerous operations the Oath Keepers have undertaken since their founding.”

    After meeting and speaking with “hundreds” of Oath Keepers over the years, Guandolo said, he concluded the group has no bias against the government.

    “They are not anti-government or anti-authority,” Guandolo said.

    “They’re anti-tyranny and anti-anything that infringes on the natural rights and constitutional rights of American citizens.”

    Guandolo expressed concern with the use of terms such as “domestic violent extremism,” used by academic experts and even in a recent FBI bulletin on domestic threats in America.

    “There is no legal definition for violent extremism, which is exactly our adversaries’ intent,” Guandolo said. “And as a matter of fact, I heard yesterday the phrase ‘violent extremism’ defined by plaintiffs’ witness as somebody who’s willing to do violence in furtherance of achieving their goal.

    Stewart Rhodes, founder of the Oath Keepers, appears on a screen during a House Select Committee hearing to Investigate the Jan. 6 Attack on the U.S. Capitol, in the Cannon House Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington on June 9, 2022. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

    “And what’s problematic about that from a legal standpoint,” he said, “is that describes members of the U.S. military, that describes police officers, that describes U.S. citizens who are exercising their natural right to defend themselves, as well as their constitutional right to do so and their lawful right to do so.”

    Use of the term domestic violent extremism is “an information operation,” Guandolo said, because “it doesn’t legally actually define anything. And the way the plaintiff’s witnesses defined it, it basically can be used against anybody that uses violence. And violence is neither good nor bad.”

    ‘I Couldn’t Tell You That’

    Kriner, a senior research scholar at the Center on Terrorism, Extremism and Counterterrorism at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, was asked by Miller on Dec. 15, “Why do we even have an oath to the Constitution?”

    Kriner replied: “I couldn’t tell you that.”

    Guandolo said he was troubled by that answer. “Again, I and I’m not trying to make any other kind of statement other than it tells me it’s either a grossly biased perspective that the witness is coming from, or they just don’t know,” Guandolo said. “And in either case, I think is really unprofessional.”

    The oath to defend the Constitution against “all enemies, foreign and domestic,” is a crucial part of America, Guandolo said.

    “… When police officers and military people and elected officials and judges take these oaths, it literally is the foundation for our entire system,” he said, “because our fidelity is to the Constitution.”

    Guandolo said Oath Keepers Vice President Greg McWhirter, who also served as an FBI informant during the Jan. 6 investigation, would have been “duty-bound, if there was a known, organized effort to overthrow the U.S. government,” to report it.

    McWhirter’s role as an FBI informant came out during the Rhodes trial. A former sheriff’s deputy in Marion County, Ind.,  McWhirter suffered a cardiac event just before his scheduled trip from Montana to Washington to testify in the trial.

    “Mr. McWhirter, you know, obviously had access to Mr. Rhodes, knew … what Oath Keepers was doing and what they were up to,” Guandolo said, “and of course he would have been duty-bound to report something such as an organized effort to violently overthrow the government.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 23:30

  • These Are The World's Most Expensive Cities
    These Are The World’s Most Expensive Cities

    The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has recently published its Worldwide Cost of Living Index for 2022.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck details below, New York and Singapore jointly top the rankings as the world’s most expensive cities to live in, while last year’s number one, Tel Aviv, now ranks in third place.

    This is the first time New York City has topped the list. This partly comes down to the United States’ high rates of inflation this past year. As shown by Statista’s chart, Los Angeles and San Francisco are also among the world’s most expensive metropolises.

    Infographic: The World's Most Expensive Cities | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    However, the roundup also includes four European cities: Zurich, Geneva, Paris and Copenhagen. In Western Europe, price increases were mainly attributable to rising gas prices, as well as the unequal valuation of the euro, as cited by the EIU.

    The annual index compares prices of more than 200 everyday products and services such as food, clothing, rent and transport in 172 cities around the world. The cities included in the study are compared with the base city of New York, with an index set at 100.

    According to this year’s index, the average cost of living in the world’s largest cities increased by 8.1 percent in 2022, as a repercussion of the war in Ukraine and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

    “The war in Ukraine, Western sanctions on Russia and China’s zero-Covid policies have caused supply-chain problems that, combined with rising interest rates and exchange-rate shifts, have resulted in a cost-of-living crisis across the world,” Upasana Dutt, who was responsible for leading the research, said in a statement. Dutt added that the average price increase in the cities analyzed is “the strongest we’ve seen in the 20 years for which we have digital data.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 23:00

  • The War For Eight Billion Minds
    The War For Eight Billion Minds

    Authored by J.B.Shurk via The Gatestone Institute,

    The heavy perils we face today include centralized governments micromanaging society, the growing prospect of global war, the growing prospect of forced surrender, and the replacement of reasoned debate and free speech with state-sanctioned “narratives” and censorship: totalitarian governance seems not far behind. This is a new kind of war against civilians for control of their minds.

    The torrents engulfing us appear to be potentially catastrophic. In a few short years, the world has endured the COVID-19 pandemic, forced government lockdowns, extreme economic volatility, commodity shortages, and the World Economic Forum’s attempts to exploit this cascade of crises as an excuse to usher in a structural “Great Reset” in which global food and energy consumption can be strictly regulated according to the “climate change” goals of an unelected cabal. Governments are relying increasingly on controlling public “narratives” and vilifying dissent.

    While health bureaucrats and politicians claimed to be “following the science,” mandatory compliance with unilateral rule-making precluded reasoned, good-faith debate. The predictable result: the lethal consequences of the Wuhan Virus were exacerbated by the lethal consequences of misguided public policies imposed to fight the virus. Students whose schools were shuttered now suffer the lifelong effects of learning loss. Patients whose timely diagnoses and preventative care were forestalled now suffer the debilitating outcomes of untreated disease. Small businesses unable to endure prolonged closures are gone for good. Middle class savings once reserved for unexpected “rainy day” funds or children’s future educations have dried up. Credit card debt is on the rise, while more and more people struggle to survive on less. The “safety nets” of government welfare programs have ballooned to leave nation states more indebted than ever but have also proved too perforated with leaky holes (often draining needed resources straight into the bank accounts of corporate campaign donors, interest group lobbyists, and foreign hackers) to keep society’s most vulnerable afloat. Governments’ justifications for reckless fiscal, monetary, and credit policies during short-term emergencies have weakened nations’ prospects for long-term solvency and the likelihood that they will be capable of preserving stable currencies. Still, for all the harms their actions have caused, governments have issued no apologies for enforcing such life-altering policies while silencing critics. It is as if “narrative engineers” have adopted an official position that they are incapable of being wrong.

    Geopolitical conflict is wrenching the post-WWII international order apart. While America’s and the European Union’s “climate change” policies have already inflated the costs of energy, food and much else, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only added to ordinary Europeans’ financial pain and jeopardizes the continent’s security more broadly. China’s territorial ambitions threaten peace in Taiwan, Japan, across Southeast Asia and beyond. The United States’ efforts to enlarge NATO’s European membership, while expanding its mission objectives into the Indo-Pacific, all but ensure that the U.S., China and Russia remain on a collision course.

    Policymakers cannot help seeing parallels to the quickly falling geopolitical dominoes that ushered in WWI and WWII over the course of a few fateful weeks. They cannot help looking at the unsustainable accumulation of government debt around the world and the avalanche of investment derivatives balancing unsteadily upon fragile currencies unmoored from any real value in gold or silver and fearing the risks of a severe depression. They cannot help seeing Russian revanchism and Chinese territorial expansion as signs that the Great Powers have set course down a dangerous path. The more nervous about the future policymakers are, the more committed they seem to enforcing a standard “narrative” they can control.

    It was the detonation of two nuclear warheads over Hiroshima and Nagasaki, of course, that brought combat in the Pacific Theater to a close and ended WWII with an exclamation point.

    Now we stand on a new kind of battlefield. Just as with nuclear weapons, civilians have nowhere to hide from this war’s effects. Weapons systems are spread out across the Internet, deployed on mobile phones and active on every computer chip, tracking, sharing, and pushing digital information throughout the world. Instead of explosives and bullets, we have competing “narratives” whizzing past. The breadth of the campaign to control what information we see, how we process that information, and ultimately what we think and say makes even the most effective psychological operations of the past look antiquated and rudimentary. Whereas “mutually assured destruction” has so far succeeded as a deterrent against nuclear war, the tantalizing opportunities for governments to use programs of mass digital surveillance and communication to spread lies, manipulate opinion, and affect human behavior have created a kind of mutually assured dystopia, “where people lead dehumanized, fearful lives.”

    In the 1930s, Adolf Hitler spoke with boisterous energy and theatrical gesticulation before tens of thousands of stormtroopers, Hitler Youth, and Nazi Party faithful. Today, the dictator’s raised stage has been replaced with Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok, and anywhere else a pop-up online audience can be found. The visual stimuli that enthralled Hitler’s crowds are now reproduced with the release of pleasure-causing endorphins rushing to the brain after every “politically correct” online statement is “rewarded” with approval from strangers providing instant fame. Online “influencers” have become the goose-stepping middlemen for campaigns of mass propaganda that touch more humans in a day than a decade of Hitler’s speeches. In an age when information has never been more easily accessible, the world is awash in lies.

    Instead of encouraging public debate and rational argument, governments push the constant drumbeat of the “narrative” above all else. A citizen either obediently accepts the government’s vast and intrusive COVID-19 rules, or that person is labeled a “COVID denier.” A citizen either obediently accepts the government’s vast and intrusive “climate change” rules, or that person is labeled a “climate denier.” A citizen either accepts Hunter Biden’s “laptop from hell” as “Russian disinformation“, or that person is labeled a “Russian sympathizer.” Daring to say otherwise could get one banned from social media, professionally sanctioned, or even fired from a job. Except none of these established “narratives” has proved true.

    In hindsight, it is clear that lockdowns unleashed more health, educational and economic problems than they solved. As Europe faces an expanding energy crisis that leaves its populations vulnerable to the cold, it is clear that “climate change” policies can kill those they are purportedly meant to protect. And as Elon Musk’s recent release of internal Twitter communications proves, Hunter Biden’s laptop was not only real news censored from the public during a presidential election. Political speech was also censored through the collaborative efforts of the FBI and more than 50 intelligence community agents in violation of the First Amendment. In each case, the “narrative” proved to be either misleading propaganda or an outright lie. Yet they were created and sustained by online communication platforms that pushed the lies and excluded the truths.

    As global events increasingly threaten Western stability, governments have demonstrated no inclination to entertain a diversity of viewpoints or discussions along the way. Instead, the more serious the issue, the more committed to a single, overarching “narrative” they seem to become. Dissent is despised. Reasoned argument is lampooned. A citizen is expected to blithely accept government-approved messaging disseminated online, or risk the wrath of the technocracy.

    This war for eight billion minds means that citizens must be more vigilant than ever in processing and evaluating what they see and read. Whether they like it or not, they are under attack at all times from those who seek to manipulate and control them. As in the last century, we are surrounded by totalitarian propaganda routinely disguised as “the truth.” In this century, though, the reach and scale of mass indoctrination seems endlessly expanding.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 22:30

  • The USA Is Still Not The Most Innovative Country In The World
    The USA Is Still Not The Most Innovative Country In The World

    Since 2000, global investment in research and development (R&D) has tripled to $2.4 trillion.

    R&D spend is also casting a wider global net. In 1960, the U.S. made up nearly 70% of global R&D spending, and by 2020 this had fallen to 30%. From job creation and public health to national security and industrial competitiveness, R&D plays a vital role in a country’s economic growth and innovation, impacting nearly every corner of society—either directly or indirectly.

    Along with R&D spend, other key ingredients play an important role in driving progress and innovation. These include technological adoption, scientific research, and venture capital activity, among others.

    In the infographic below, Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld ranks the world’s most innovative economies using data from the UN’s WIPO Global Innovation Index.

    What Defines an Innovative Economy?

    Innovation is inherently challenging to quantify, but the Global Innovation Index is a longstanding attempt to do just that.

    The framework used for the index was designed to create a more complete analysis, comprising of 81 indicators across seven categories to calculate a country’s score:

    As the above table shows, the framework aims to identify indicators that foster an innovative environment and breakthrough technologies.

    It’s worth noting that each country’s overall innovation score is a mix of these categories, and countries with similar scores can be strong in different areas.

    The 50 Most Innovative Countries in 2022

    Switzerland ranks at the top⁠ for the 12th year in a row—above the U.S., South Korea, and Israel.

    For many, this may come as a surprise. However, the country’s intellectual property rules are considered world-class, and they are complemented by strong collaboration between universities and industry. In addition, the country attracts top talent thanks to its high quality of living.

    At second is the United States, which is a top spender on R&D at over $700 billion per year. Globally, four of the five top R&D spending companies are in America: Amazon ($42.7 billion), Alphabet ($27.6 billion), Microsoft ($19.3 billion), and Apple ($18.8 billion).

    Rank

    Country / Region

    Score

    1

    🇨🇭 Switzerland

    64.6

    2

    🇺🇲 U.S.

    61.8

    3

    🇸🇪 Sweden

    61.6

    4

    🇬🇧 United Kingdom

    59.7

    5

    🇳🇱 Netherlands

    58.0

    6

    🇰🇷 South Korea

    57.8

    7

    🇸🇬 Singapore

    57.3

    8

    🇩🇪 Germany

    57.2

    9

    🇫🇮 Finland

    56.9

    10

    🇩🇰 Denmark

    55.9

    11

    🇨🇳 China

    55.3

    12

    🇫🇷 France

    55.0

    13

    🇯🇵 Japan

    53.6

    14

    🇭🇰 Hong Kong

    51.8

    15

    🇨🇦 Canada

    50.8

    16

    🇮🇱 Israel

    50.2

    17

    🇦🇹 Austria

    50.2

    18

    🇪🇪 Estonia

    50.2

    19

    🇱🇺 Luxembourg

    49.8

    20

    🇮🇸 Iceland

    49.5

    21

    🇲🇹 Malta

    49.1

    22

    🇳🇴 Norway

    48.8

    23

    🇮🇪 Ireland

    48.5

    24

    🇳🇿 New Zealand

    47.2

    25

    🇦🇺 Australia

    47.1

    26

    🇧🇪 Belgium

    46.9

    27

    🇨🇾 Cyprus

    46.2

    28

    🇮🇹 Italy

    46.1

    29

    🇪🇸 Spain

    44.6

    30

    🇨🇿 Czech Republic

    42.8

    31

    🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates

    42.1

    32

    🇵🇹 Portugal

    42.1

    33

    🇸🇮 Slovenia

    40.6

    34

    🇭🇺 Hungary

    39.8

    35

    🇧🇬 Bulgaria

    39.5

    36

    🇲🇾 Malaysia

    38.7

    37

    🇹🇷 Turkey

    38.1

    38

    🇵🇱 Poland

    37.5

    39

    🇱🇹 Lithuania

    37.4

    40

    🇮🇳 India

    36.6

    41

    🇱🇻 Latvia

    36.5

    42

    🇭🇷 Croatia

    35.6

    43

    🇹🇭 Thailand

    34.9

    44

    🇬🇷 Greece

    34.5

    45

    🇲🇺 Mauritius

    34.4

    46

    🇸🇰 Slovakia

    34.3

    47

    🇷🇺 Russia

    34.3

    48

    🇻🇳 Vietnam

    34.3

    49

    🇷🇴 Romania

    34.1

    50

    🇨🇱 Chile

    34.0

    Countries across Europe also feature prominently in the top 10, including Sweden (#3), the United Kingdom (#4) and the Netherlands (#5).

    South Korea (#6), is known for its high R&D intensity. This is driven by its industrial conglomerates, known as chaebols, that are generally family-owned. Samsung and LG are among its largest companies, known for their high degree of corporate-academic collaboration.

    Below, we will take a closer look at the most innovative countries by region.

    North America

    In North America, the U.S. ranks highest. The country has long been known as a global leader in innovation, with a strong track record of introducing new ideas and technologies that have transformed the way we live and work. The U.S. ranks #1 in a number of indicators, including university-industry R&D collaboration and intangible asset intensity.

    Ranking second in the region is Canada (Global rank: #15). Across all countries, it ranks first on measures of joint venture and strategic alliances per billion dollars of GDP (PPP) and number of venture capital (VC) recipients per billion dollars of GDP (PPP). In 2021, VC investment topped $14.7 billion across 752 deals.

    Another interesting example is Honduras (#113). Driving innovation in the country is a new economic zoning experiment called Zones for Economic Development and Employment (ZEDEs).

    To date, these zones have attracted about a quarter of a billion dollars in private investment funding and have created thousands of new jobs.

    South America

    Chile (#50) ranks first across the region, thanks to its promising tech sector. To date, it is home to an estimated 8,000 tech companies. The country also has the highest scale of mobile connectivity in the region. In late 2021, it launched the first 5G network in South America.

    Following Chile is Brazil (#54), which saw a record number of IPOs in 2021 that were valued at nearly $7 billion.

    Middle East and Central Asia

    As the highest ranked in the region, Israel (#16) is the sole country globally that spends over 5% of GDP on R&D. Overall, it is a global leader in patent applications and information and communication technology (ICT) services exports.

    For context, the country’s density of start-ups per capita is 16 times that of Europe.

    The small island nation of Cyprus (#27) follows in second, supported by government funding focused on start-ups. Meanwhile, Turkey (#37) in third, is home to six unicorns*, fostered by its development of a megatech corridor through Istanbul to Izmir.

    *A unicorn is a privately-held startup that has a valuation of over $1 billion.

    Europe

    With 15 of the top 25 economies in the world, Europe is a powerhouse for fostering innovative ecosystems.

    The continent is also a leader in social progress, equality, and life satisfaction. The region scores 30 on inequality according to the Gini Index compared to 41 for America.

    For many, technological output isn’t the first thing that comes to mind when they think of Europe, but VC deals surged over 53% in 2021. London, Berlin, and Paris were leading cities for VC activity.

    East Asia and Oceania

    South Korea (#6) ranks highest across East Asia and Oceania, and has established itself as a leader in technology and innovation on the global stage. Through its New Deal initiative, the government is spearheading projects on smart healthcare, AI, and smart industrial complexes. At the same time, it is accelerating the construction of eco-friendly infrastructure and renewable energy.

    South Korea’s Hyundai and its subsidiary Kia have made considerable ground in electric vehicle (EV) production, comprising 9% of the U.S. EV market, the second-highest share after Tesla.

    China sits just outside the global top 10, and now ranks #1 in multiple indicators, including labor productivity growth and trademarks by origin. China’s economic output per employed worker increased an impressive 4.2% annually from 2011 to 2019, on average.

    Africa

    The highest ranked in Africa is the island nation of Mauritius (#45).

    Underscoring its rank is the strength of its institutions and market sophistication. Meanwhile, the government is accelerating investment in tech incubators, research-business collaboration, and tax incentives for R&D investment.

    South Africa (#61) follows Mauritius on the list, with the city of Cape Town attracting a proposed $300 million Amazon headquarters.

    Panasonic opened their headquarters in Cape Town in 2018. Oracle, IBM, Google, and Microsoft also have offices in the country’s expanding tech hub.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 22:00

  • Biden's Latest JFK Document-Dump Is A Joke
    Biden’s Latest JFK Document-Dump Is A Joke

    Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

    Waiting for a government – any government – to release their “secret” files is a waste of your time, and reading anything they eventually publish is doubly so.

    If you didn’t learn that from the nothing-burger that was the 28 pages on 9/11, or the pathetic exercise in revisionism that made up the Afghanistan Papers…you should definitely have learned it today.

    Yes, Joe Biden’s administration has just released their promised “secret” JFK papers.

    Turns out that Oswald acted alone.

    I know, I was shocked too.

    Further, the release dials back on the (very slight) anti-Russia messaging of last year’s release.

    In December 2021, the previous batch of “secret” files revealed Oswald met with a KGB agent in the days running up to the assassination.

    The latest batch reassures us that Oswald never worked for the KGB, and that the Russians thought he was “too crazy” to recruit.

    One gets the impression that has as much to do with managing propaganda positioning over the war in Ukraine as anything else. Either way, its a ridiculously transparent attempt to reinforce the “lone wolf” lie.

    “He was too crazy and unstable even for the Russians!”

    Laughable.

    Further, one particular “secret” memo claims…

    the Central Intelligence Agency has no indication that Ruby and Lee Harvey Oswald ever knew each other, were associated, or might have been connected in any manner”.

    Yes, before Jack Ruby killed Lee Harvey Oswald they were apparently “not connected in any manner”. He had never met Oswald before the assassination, and barely had any idea who he was when he shot him on November 24th.

    This means the current “official story” is that Ruby randomly chose to attend the press conference where Oswald spoke on the evening of November 22nd, despite not being a member of the press.

    During this press conference, Ruby correctly pointed out Oswald had joined the “fair play for Cuba committee” (presumably an inspired guess, seeing as they did not know one another).

    Then, two days later and on a complete whim, he decided to sneak back into the police station carrying a gun and shoot a man he had never met for no reason at all, in the parking lot of a police station, while surrounded by police officers.

    That’s what these “secret files” tell us…the same ridiculous story as the very unsecret Warren Commission.

    So, yet again, we see just how pointless these long-awaited government releases are, and how they are only every used to reinforce the official narrative.

    It was always going to be that way.

    After all, JFK has been dead for six decades, that is more than enough time to redact, edit, censor and indeed forge documents ’til they tell the story you want to tell.

    Hell, it’s possible these files didn’t even exist until a couple of days ago. Why on Earth should we give the CIA, FBI or National Archives the benefit of the doubt?

    Supposing they are sitting on some cache of massively incriminating evidence…are they really likely to release it? Just because someone asks nicely?

    Imagine the police rocking up to a murder suspect’s house, knocking politely, and asking if he wouldn’t mind going inside and fetching all the evidence that he killed his wife. Then quietly waiting sixty years for him to do it.

    The entire process is a farce.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 21:30

  • Gates, Bezos Invest In Australian-Designed Brain Implant
    Gates, Bezos Invest In Australian-Designed Brain Implant

    Authored by Daniel Y. Teng via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Billionaires Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos are betting on the New York-based Synchron as the answer to Elon Musk’s Neuralink.

    Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos speaks after receiving the 2019 International Astronautical Federation (IAF) Excellence in Industry Award during the the 70th International Astronautical Congress at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, DC on October 22, 2019. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

    Founded by Australian professors Tom Oxley and Nick Opie, the company on Dec. 16 announced it had closed a $110 million Series C funding round involving Bezos Expeditions, Gates Frontier, and ARCH Venture Partners.

    The Synchron Switch is a “brain-computer interface” that is implanted in the blood vessels at the surface of the motor cortex of the brain via the jugular vein.

    Once set, the interface will detect and wirelessly transmit information from the brain, allowing severely paralysed individuals to control personal devices without needing to use their hands.

    The funds will be put towards a pivotal clinical trial.

    The Stentrode Endovascular Electrode Array (Courtesy of Synchron)

    The Stentrode™ Endovascular Electrode Array and Implantable Receiver Transmitter Unit. (Courtesy of Synchron)

    “We have an opportunity to deliver a first-in-class commercial [brain-computer interface],” said Oxley, also the CEO of Synchron, in a statement.

    “The problem of paralysis is much larger than people realize. 100 million people worldwide have upper limb impairment,” he added.

    ARCH Managing Director Robert Nelson said Synchron was helping individuals with untreatable conditions “regain connection to the world.

    “It is an exciting time for neurotechnology,” he said.

    How Does it Compare to Musk’s Neuralink?

    Clinical trials are currently underway in the United States and Australia with Opie saying the procedure was minimally invasive—a factor he believes sets it apart from Musk’s Neuralink.

    “We don’t need to remove the scalp and skull or put electrodes directly into delicate brain tissue,” he said in comments obtained by AAP.

    “We’ve come up with a clever way of getting to the right place in the brain just by using the body’s naturally occurring highways and blood vessels.”

    He added this ensured patients recovered faster as well from the procedure.

    So far, four Australian paralysis patients have received implants since undergoing the procedure at Royal Melbourne Hospital in 2020.

    “All of those patients were able to control a computer with their mind,” he said. “And there were no serious device-related effects.”

    The first U.S. patient was treated in July 2022 at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York after Synchron received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration last year.

    In contrast, Musk’s Neuralink has yet to receive approval from the body and is also facing questions over potential animal welfare violations.

    Musk had wanted to start human trials in six months, yet the billionaire is also reported to have approached Synchron about a potential investment.

    Opie says no deal is on the table.

    Other investors include Reliance Digital Health, Greenoaks, Alumni Ventures, Moore Strategic Ventures, and Project X, as well as existing investors Khosla Ventures, NeuroTechnology Investors, METIS, Forepont Capital Partners, ID8 Investments, and Shanda Group.

    AAP contributed to this article.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 20:30

  • Point Of No Return: Beijing's Move To Covid Coexistence Is Here To Stay
    Point Of No Return: Beijing’s Move To Covid Coexistence Is Here To Stay

    By Houze Song of MarcoPolo.org

    With China’s upcoming Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), markets will be looking for any pro-growth signals after a year of turbulence. But the most consequential action for growth has already happened: the decision to abandon Zero Covid.

    The key questions now are

    1. will the Zero Covid exit endure?

    2. how much will property rebound?

    3. will there be more significant stimulus?  

    Here we briefly unpack our views on these three questions.

    Covid: China Has Crossed the Rubicon Toward Coexistence

    Although 4Q growth will still come in around expectations in our recent outlook, we underestimated the degree to which an about-face on Zero Covid would occur. One of the key factors is that the pre-Party Congress politics on Zero Covid have evaporated, making it much easier to shift course. Combined with bottom-up demands and an economy in dire straits, those advocating an exit have won. At this point, we expect China to embark on a swift exit and reach near full opening by the end of 1H2023.

    If anything, the concern now is whether China is exiting hastily without much planning for case surges and ensuring sufficient hospital capacity. To be sure, the path from containment to coexistence will be paved with its share of chaos and setbacks, but we believe that China has passed the point of no return and is decisively moving to coexistence.

    Fast-moving developments in the Chinese capital bear monitoring as a leading indicator. That’s because what happens in Beijing won’t stay in Beijing—that is, with the Chinese capital already confronting a bad surge, the government’s acceptance of case spread without reversing course will send a strong signal across the country for emulating the approach. At this point, even with infections mounting, we believe the government is unlikely to tighten controls again and will hold the line on reopening.

    Property: From Rescuing Developers to Stimulating Demand

    The property sector’s prospects have improved as of late because state banks have been quietly lending to property developers without resorting to a formal splashy bailout. But there is strong reluctance behind these actions, as the central government is serious about reducing banks’ exposure to the property sector and maintaining its fiscal prudence.

    So Beijing will want to shift the burden of the property rescue from the state to households as soon as possible. And the Covid exit presents as good an opportunity as any for Beijing to seize on to unleash more household spending. We expect announcements on stimulating property demand during the CEWC, including measures such as reducing down payment and mortgage rates.

    Skepticism on whether demand-side stimulus will work is warranted, since incentives for property purchases have been largely unsuccessful to date as sales declined by more than 20% through October. But at the same time, Chinese households have accumulated 6 trillion yuan (~$1 trillion) in excess savings this year, largely as a result of not buying homes. That pent-up demand is more likely to materialize this time because the Covid exit will lead households to reconsider their outlook as the economy reopens.

    With households more willing to take on debt and resume property purchases, that will also improve the cash flow of property developers that depend on sales. That will lead the state sector to withdraw its lending once the sector appears more stable.

    Fiscal Stimulus: Overly Conservative

    While the Zero Covid exit and a potential property rebound are looking up, there remains the risk that stimulus will be withdrawn too quickly. While we believe that the on-budget fiscal deficit will modestly increase in 2023, the overall macroeconomic policy stance will likely be contractionary.

    For one, any increase in the fiscal deficit will not be able to offset the ending of other stimulus measures such as the tax refund and the central bank’s dividend payments—together accounting for 3% of GDP in 2021. Second, the latest Politburo meeting once again puts financial risk as a top concern for 2023, effectively ruling out broad-based monetary easing.

    The bottom line is that the move to Covid coexistence will be the biggest boon to growth in at least two years, even as a weaker stimulus will be a headwind to growth in 2023. We will have more detailed analysis of China’s economic prospects in our 1Q2023 Macro Outlook.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 20:00

  • Shadowy US Spy Firm Promises To Surveil Crypto Users For The Highest Bidder
    Shadowy US Spy Firm Promises To Surveil Crypto Users For The Highest Bidder

    Authored by Kit Klatenberg via MintPressNews.com,

    Leaked files reviewed by MintPress expose how intelligence services the world over can track cryptocurrency transactions to their source and therefore identify users by monitoring the movements of smartphone and Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices, such as Amazon Echo. The contents comprehensively detonate the myth of crypto anonymity, and have grave implications for individuals and states seeking to shield their financial activity from the prying eyes of hostile governments and authorities.

    The documents are among a trove related to the secret operations of Anomaly 6, a shadowy private spying firm founded by a pair of U.S. military intelligence veterans.

    The company covertly embeds software development kits, or SDKs, in hundreds of popular apps, then slices through layers of “anonymized” data in order to uncover sensitive information about any individual it chooses anywhere on Earth, at any time. In all, Anomaly 6 can simultaneously monitor roughly three billion smartphone devices – equivalent to a fifth of the world’s total population – in real-time.

    Having previously hawked its wares to U.S. Special Operations Command, as this journalist revealed on December 6, Anomaly 6 is now using British private military company Prevail Partners – heavily involved in the West’s proxy war in Ukraine – to market and sell its product to a variety of Western military, security, and intelligence agencies the world over. This is despite the company’s own founders fearing its global dragnet could be completely illegal under national and international data protection regimes.

    The company’s international surveillance reach could be more sweeping – and invasive – than even that of the C.I.A. and N.S.A. MintPress can reveal individuals, organizations, and states seeking to bypass traditional financial structures and systems loom prominently in Anomaly 6’s mephitic crosshairs, and spying on their transactions is a pivotal component of its sales pitch to government and private clients. This Orwellian technology leaves cryptocurrency users the world over nowhere to hide.

    WHO WATCHES THE WATCHERS?

    Ever since Bitcoin’s launch in 2009, anonymity has been an absolutely fundamental tenet of cryptocurrency. The ability to make and receive payments incognito through a secure, decentralized platform without needing to register a named bank account, or even interact with established financial gatekeepers at any stage, was and remains a unique selling point for the asset.

    The principle of anonymity is taken so seriously by crypto practitioners and aficionados alike that industry platforms are graded according to their levels of privacy. Many crypto entrepreneurs, some of whom manage hundreds of millions of dollars for clients, conduct business without ever disclosing their names, or any identifying information at all. Venture capital firms have even invested vast sums in crypto ventures with wholly pseudonymous founders, an unprecedented sectoral development.

    Anomaly Six’s website features no other data but the company name, contact and location

    In recent years, however, there have been several clear indications that cryptocurrency anonymity is under significant threat, and indeed could already have been mortally compromised by the U.S. intelligence apparatus. In June 2021, it was revealed that the F.B.I. had successfully traced and recovered $2.3 million in Bitcoin extorted by hackers from Colonial Pipeline in a ransomware attack, which had shut down the company’s computer systems, causing fuel shortages and a spike in gas prices.

    U.S. officials declined to reveal how they tracked where the ill-gotten funds had ended up, and identified the ultimate owners of 23 separate cryptocurrency accounts belonging to DarkSide, the hacking collective responsible for the cyberattack, although public statements by C.I.A. director William Burns in December that year may provide a clue. Speaking at a Wall Street Journal summit, he acknowledged that his Agency was engaged in “a number of different projects focused on cryptocurrency.”

    “This is something I inherited. My predecessor had started this,” he said. “Trying to look at second- and third-order consequences as well and helping with our colleagues in other parts of the U.S. government to provide solid intelligence on what we’re seeing as well.”

    While it’s certainly true that cryptocurrency’s anonymity is attractive to criminal elements and terrorist groups, there are a wide variety of entirely legitimate reasons for seeking privacy in financial transactions, and preventing regulators, big banks, and governments from keeping an eye on what one is doing.

    For example, political and social movements of every stripe in all corners of the globe have embraced the asset, as they can be financially supported from overseas without any paper trail being left at either end. In turn, activists can send money to each other and make purchases in secret, and organize events and construct local and international support networks, leaving authorities none the wiser.

    In Venezuela, cryptocurrency has provided vital respite to an entire country, as crippling U.S.-led sanctions have in recent years deprived both its government and citizens of access to, and the ability to buy, even basic necessities, including food and medicine. The national currency’s value reduced to almost zero, crypto transactions offer a literal lifeline by which goods and services can be accessed, and import and export restrictions imposed by Washington circumvented.

    ‘PATTERNS OF LIFE’ AND ‘BED DOWN LOCATIONS’

    A February 2021 U.N. special rapporteur report on the impact of American sanctions on Venezuela ruled they were “collective punishment,” and Caracas lived on just 1% of its pre-sanctions income. The previous March, Alfred de Zayas, formerly an independent expert for the United Nations Human Rights Council, calculated that over 100,000 Venezuelans had died as a result of the restrictions.

    Despite this monstrous human toll, and countless calls from prominent rights groups and international institutions to end the suffering, Washington rigidly enforces the sanctions regime, and seeks to harshly punish any individual or organization helping Caracas skirt restrictions. While measures have eased slightly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Stateside prosecution of Colombian businessman Alex Saab, abducted from Cape Verde in October 2020, for selling food to the Venezuelan government is ongoing.

    Saab could be soon joined in the dock, if Anomaly 6 has anything to do with it. One of the company’s leaked sales presentations provides several case studies showing how its spying technology can be used by security and intelligence services to “derive understanding of the actions of individuals associated with sanctions violations.”

    By homing in on the location of the Venezuelan government’s sanctioned cryptocurrency exchange, the National Superintendence of Cryptoactives and Related Activities (Sunacrip), which manages all crypto activities in the country, Anomaly 6 identified two specific IoT devices “which show the value of the A6 dataset in this endeavor.”

    Scouring data generated at the site back to January 1, 2020, Anomaly 6 found thousands of signals emitted by IoT devices and smartphones. From there, it “built out the pattern of life for the devices in that search” – in other words, the locations device owners traveled to and from, when, and where they lived. In all, these devices produced “over 593,374 geographic points of reference”, in Argentina, Colombia, and Venezuela.

    From this amorphous corpus, Anomaly 6 identified one device with “a unique travel pattern which makes it worth further investigation.” In particular, its movements indicated a “very well-defined pattern of life in and around Caracas” – although the company professed to be “much more interested in its travel to the Colombian border in the Cúcuta/San Antonio del Táchira border area.”

    That Anomaly 6 was able to track this device while in flight was said to highlight a “unique aspect” of its dataset. The device “took a less than seven hour trip from Caracas to San Antonio del Táchira (Juan Vicente Gómez International Airport) which landed (or was on final approach at 0923 on 23 Feb).”

    “With less than 10 flights a day on average to this airport (pre-Covid 19), it would not be difficult to ascertain a short list of personalities of interest with access to Venezuelan passenger name records,” Anomaly 6 bragged. “Additionally, we can see that this device transits to the border crossing locations in the short time it was located in the area.”

    This border area was of note for Anomaly 6 as, “according to open source reporting, historically, Venezuelans have used border areas for cash pickup/drops to skirt sanctions put in place by the international community.” Such activities “provide access to hard currency to actors and governments which have been cut off from U.S. dollar trading platforms.”

    A “second device of interest” was found to have traveled to Medellín, Colombia, and its “pattern of life” indicated its owner had “connections to the financial/banking environment.”

    “Both of these devices exhibit [patterns of life] that warrant further exploration, especially when combined with fact [sic] they have been located at the Sunacrip HQ,” Anomaly 6 concluded. “Further investigation can find bed down locations as well as other insights for business locations, international travel, and other device co-location.”

    THE DEVIL TURNS AROUND

    Due to a highly successful mainstream media campaign over many years to demonize the government of Venezuela, and by extension its people, it is likely some American citizens will be entirely unsympathetic to Caracas’ plight, and approve of efforts to prevent the state bypassing sanctions. However, the ease with which Anomaly 6’s tools of mass surveillance could be domestically deployed, and the likelihood they already have, should give them pause.

    As I revealed in my initial report, Anomaly 6 can identify U.S. smartphone users by name, address and travel history. Another leaked sales presentation details how by linking a single anonymous individual’s smartphone signal recorded in North Korea to a network of hotels, schools, and other sites, the company determined with pinpoint accuracy their identity, marital status, where they worked and lived, the names of their children and the schools and universities at which they study, and more.

    Such capabilities would no doubt be of much interest to the C.I.A. and N.S.A. – both of which are in theory prohibited from spying on U.S. citizens, but have been recurrently embroiled in controversy for engaging in such activity.

    Concerningly, it has been revealed that the C.I.A. for many years sought to bulk collect international financial data in service of tracking the Islamic State’s funding sources, and incidentally vacuumed up voluminous quantities of sensitive information on U.S. citizens in the process.

    Heavily redacted records related to the connivance were unearthed due to pressure from senators Ron Wyden and Martin Heinrich of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Upon reviewing the material, they wrote to U.S. Director of Intelligence Avril Haines, righteously admonishing the C.I.A. for brazenly ignoring longstanding constitutional checks and balances on the Agency’s domestic activities.

    “[The C.I.A.] has done so entirely outside the statutory framework that Congress and the public believe govern this collection, and without any of the judicial, congressional or even executive branch oversight that comes with FISA collection,” they fulminated.

    Anomaly 6’s services, of course, mean the C.I.A. and N.S.A. can dodge restrictions at home, without fear of landing in hot water. Other agencies permitted to monitor Americans can likewise now do so without a warrant too. And there is no reason to believe that its spying would be restricted to financial transactions, either

    “Anomaly 6 data can be used in multiple use cases to support cyber intelligence and operational use end states,” the leaked crypto sales deck declares. “By utilizing multiple targeting methodologies, this data can support the building of a far superior intelligence picture that enables clients to move towards actionable end states. Fusing A6 data with other classified and unclassified data sets places the client at the forefront of the cyber mission space.”

    Other leaked Anomaly 6 files openly discuss how its technology is ripe for both “counterintelligence” and “source development” purposes, and it’s not merely U.S. citizens in the firing line. The firm boasts of having spied on the movements of “devices from other friendly countries,” including members of the Five Eyes global spying network, and France and Germany.

    In other words, Anomaly 6 turns every citizen on Earth into a potential “person of interest” to intelligence agencies, and thus a target for recruitment, surveillance, harassment, and much, much worse, the most intimate details of their private lives easily accessible by shady actors with a few clicks of a button, and without their knowledge or consent.

    While the mainstream media is yet to acknowledge the leak of the company’s sensitive internal papers, this has all the makings of an Edward Snowden-level international scandal of historic proportions. If Anomaly 6 is to be successfully stopped in its tracks, and Western intelligence agencies prevented from egregiously violating the privacy of innumerable individuals without compunction or oversight, it will require concerted collective action from concerned citizens worldwide.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 19:30

  • The World's Countries Compared By 20 Key Metrics
    The World’s Countries Compared By 20 Key Metrics

    Which countries have the largest populations? What about the rural versus urban population divide? And which countries have the highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP), military expenditures, or tech exports?

    Instead of comparing countries by one metric, Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang introduces this animation and series of graphics by Anders Sundell uses 20 different categories of World Bank data to compare countries.

    The data was sourced in July 2022 and contains the latest available data for each country.

    Below, we provide some context on eight of the 20 categories, and share some facts on the top ranking countries for each category.

    Top 10 Countries Worldwide by GDP

    View the full-size map

    With a GDP of nearly $23 trillion in 2021, the United States has the largest economic output of any country in the world. While China is currently second on the list, some projections have China’s nominal GDP surpassing America’s as early as 2030.

    And even more evident on this map is the weight of economic power to Western countries and just a few Asian countries. Africa, South America, and the rest of Asia are tiny in contrast.

    Top 10 Countries Worldwide by Population

    View the full-size map

    China ranks first as the world’s most populated country, with a population of 1.4 billion. China has been the world’s most populated country for more than 300 years, but this could change in the near future.

    According to the UN’s latest population prospects, India’s population is expected to surpass China’s as early as 2023. However, it’s still unclear what the consequences of this shift will be.

    Top 10 Countries Worldwide by Population 65+

    View the full-size map

    While China also takes the top spot when it comes to total elderly population, it’s worth noting that Japan has a larger per capita population of people aged 65 and over.

    According to the ​​Population Reference Bureau, nearly 12% of China’s population is 65 or older, while in Japan, more than 28.2% of people are 65+.

    Top 10 Countries Worldwide by Urban Population

    View the full-size map

    Until the Industrial Revolution, most of the world’s population lived in rural areas. But by the early 1900s, urbanization started to skyrocket, and now more than half of the world’s population lives in cities.

    China’s urbanization really took off as soon as the country’s economic reforms began in the late 1970s. As of 2021, China’s urban population of roughly 861 million people made up 63% of its overall population.

    Top 10 Countries Worldwide by Rural Population

    View the full-size map

    Many Asian and East African countries rise to the front when it comes to rural population comparisons, but India easily has the world’s largest share with around 898 million people.

    As of 2021 figures, about 65% of India’s population is rural. This is actually a significant drop compared to the 1960s, when the country’s rural population made up a whopping 82% of its overall population.

    Still, that’s still significantly higher than Western countries. For instance, only 17% of the U.S. population lives in rural areas.

    Top 10 Countries Worldwide by Land Area

    View the full-size map

    When it comes to comparing countries by sheer size, Russia comes first with a land area of 16.4 million square kilometers—that’s nearly 2x bigger than China, which comes second on the list.

    According to National Geographic, Russia is so big, it accounts for one-tenth of all land on Earth. The country has 11 different time zones, as well as coasts on three separate oceans.

    Why isn’t Canada ranked second? Though it is generally accepted as the world’s second largest country, around 8.9% of its total area is made up of water. In pure landmass, China and the U.S. have an edge.

    Top 10 Countries Worldwide by Fuel Exports

    View the full-size map

    The U.S. ranks as the world’s top fuel exporter, with the United Arab Emirates in close second.

    According to the American Petroleum Institute, the oil and gas sector is responsible for about 8% of America’s total economic output, measured by GDP.

    And this map also highlights the many other countries dependent on energy for GDP. This includes OPEC members like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iran, as well as well-known energy exporters like Norway and Russia.

    Top 10 Countries Worldwide by CO2 Emissions

    View the full-size map

    While China ranks first as the world’s biggest carbon emitter, it’s worth mentioning that the country is not even in the top 10 when looking at per capita carbon emissions.

    That being said, China’s annual emissions of 10.7 billion tons CO₂ make up a massive share of global emissions. They are more than double the second largest emitter, the United States.

    Comparing Countries by Other Metrics

    This series of graphics shows 20 distinct measures of comparing countries, but they are just a few of the hundreds of possible examples.

    From different economic measures like remittances, employment, and GDP to the multitude of factors that one can find in a demographic census, each comparison can yield different results and shed new lights on how countries relate to each other.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 19:00

  • SBF Changes Mind On Extradition To US After Four Days In Bahamian Jail
    SBF Changes Mind On Extradition To US After Four Days In Bahamian Jail

    After spending just five days in a Bahamian jail cell, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is backpedaling on his decision to contest extradition to the United States to face fraud charges, Reuters reports, citing a person familiar with the matter.

    According to the report, SBF will appear in court on Monday to formally consent to extradition – which will pave the way for him to appear in US court to face charges that he commingled customer deposits to cover expenses and debts, and to make investments through his crypto hedge fund, Alameda Research LLC.

    That said, legal experts tell Reuters that a trial is likely over a year away.

    As Fox News reported last week, the Bahamas prison where SBF was reportedly heading – Fox Hill – is “harsh” due to “overcrowding, poor nutrition [and] inadequate sanitation,” along with cells that are “infested with rats, maggots, and insects.”

    File video from 2022 shows squalid condition as Nassau, Bahamas’ correctional facility known as Fox Hill Prison. (Nassau Guardian via Reuters / Reuters Photos)

    “He will be in sick bay for orientation purposes and then we will determine where best to place him,” said Bahamian Commissioner of Correctional Services Doan Cleare in a statement to Reuters.

    A 2021 U.S. State Department report said prisoners at Fox Hill described “infrequent access to nutritious meals and long delays between daily meals.” 

    “Maximum-security cells for men measured approximately six feet by 10 feet and held up to six persons with no mattresses or toilet facilities. Inmates removed human waste by bucket. Prisoners complained of the lack of beds and bedding,” according to the report. “Some inmates developed bedsores from lying on bare ground. Sanitation was a general problem, and cells were infested with rats, maggots, and insects.“

    “Overcrowding, poor sanitation, and inadequate access to medical care were problems in the Bahamas Department of Correctional Services men’s maximum-security block,” the report continued. “The facility was designed to accommodate 1,000 prisoners but was chronically overcrowded.”

    On Thursday, Bankman-Fried sought bail from the Bahamas Supreme Court following his Dec. 12 arrest. On Tuesday he was remanded to Fox Hill Prison after Chief Magistrate JoyAnn Ferguson rejected his request to remain at home while awaiting a hearing on his extradition to the US.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 18:00

  • Denver Mayor Declares Emergency, Says City 'On Verge Of Reaching Breaking Point' Amid Influx Of Illegal Immigrants
    Denver Mayor Declares Emergency, Says City ‘On Verge Of Reaching Breaking Point’ Amid Influx Of Illegal Immigrants

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The city of Denver declared a state of emergency on Thursday in order to stave off a local humanitarian crisis amid an influx of illegal aliens from the southern border, mainly from El Paso, Texas.

    Denver Mayor Michael Hancock in Washington, on May 15, 2017. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

    Mayor Michael Hancock, a Democrat, issued the declaration as several hundred illegal aliens, mostly from Central and South America, have arrived in the state in just the past few days alone.

    “Let me be frank: This influx of migrants, the unanticipated nature of their arrival, and our current space and staffing challenges have put an immense strain on city resources to the level where they’re on the verge of reaching a breaking point at this time,” Hancock said at a news conference on Thursday.

    “What I don’t want to see is a local humanitarian crisis of unsheltered migrants on our hands because of a lack of resources,” the mayor added.

    According to Hancock’s office, more than 900 aliens have arrived in Denver over the past several months, including more than 600 people since Dec. 2.

    Another 247 aliens have arrived since Monday alone, while 75 turned up at a local homeless shelter overnight on Thursday evening, according to his office.

    Denver Mayor Michael Hancock at Civic Center Park in Denver, Colo., on June 3, 2020. (Jason Connolly/AFP via Getty Images)

    Denver ‘On the Verge of Reaching Breaking Point’

    Approximately 404 aliens are currently being accommodated in the city’s emergency shelters, including 102 at church and nonprofit shelter sites, the mayor’s office said.

    The “anticipated nature” of the arrival of the influx of illegal aliens has placed extreme pressure on the city’s efforts to shelter them, leading to limited space which is being further exacerbated by a lack of staffing, Hancock’s office said during Thursday’s news conference, noting that winter weather was set to make the situation worse.

    Hancock added that Denver is currently “at the level where we are on the verge of reaching breaking point at this time.”

    “The declaration is another tool in the toolbox to help serve the increasing number of migrants arriving in Denver, particularly as winter weather sets in,” Hancock said.

    Under the emergency declaration, Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, will be alerted that Denver is enacting a state of emergency.

    Denver will then be able to access additional emergency resources to help manage the influx of aliens, and will also be able to continue requesting financial assistance from various funding sources.

    Hancock said that, together with community partners, and the help of local churches and nonprofits, the city continues to provide aliens—the majority of which are coming to the city having entered the United States through El Paso, Texas—with emergency shelter.

    Venezuelan nationals walk along the border fence to a waiting Border Patrol van after illegally crossing the Rio Grande from Mexico, in El Paso, Texas, on Sept. 21, 2022. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    Hancock Takes Aim at Biden Admin

    Denver has already forked out more than $800,000 on the illegal alien sheltering effort, and that number is expected to increase significantly.

    A majority of the aliens who have arrived in Denver are from Venezuela, according to Hancock, and are fleeing a political and humanitarian crisis in their home country.

    The mayor took aim at the Biden administration for failing to address the “critical situation” or respond adequately, despite being aware of it.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 17:30

  • Musk Releases Doxxing Journalists From Twitter Jail After Poll
    Musk Releases Doxxing Journalists From Twitter Jail After Poll

    Twitter CEO Elon Musk reinstated a handful of left-wing journalists who had been booted from Twitter days ago for violating the social media platform’s “doxxing” policies.

    Shortly after midnight, Musk tweeted, “the people have spoken … accounts who doxxed my location will have their suspension lifted now.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Musk decided to lift the suspensions of the lefty journalists who shared his private jet locations earlier in the week after a Twitter poll he conducted on Thursday night showed 58.7% of the 3.7 million users who voted wanted the journalists reinstated “Now.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Some of the accounts that were suspended include Keith Olbermann, Aaron Rupar, Tony Webster, NYT’s Ryan Mac, CNN’s Donie O’Sullivan, WaPo’s Drew Harwell, Mashable’s Matt Binder, The Intercept’s Micah Lee, and VOA’s Steve Herman. 

    “Matt Binder is back,” the Mashable journalist tweeted early Saturday.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Olbermann’s account remains suspended as of early Saturday morning. 

    Musk accused the journalists of sharing private information about his whereabouts. He said in a Twitter Space on Thursday:

    “You doxx, you get suspended. End of story. That’s it.” 

    All of this stems from an incident on Wednesday where Musk alleged a “crazy stalker” attacked the car one of his children was riding in. 

    Musk said, “Any account doxxing real-time location info of anyone will be suspended, as it is a physical safety violation. This includes posting links to sites with real-time location info.”

    “Posting locations someone traveled to on a slightly delayed basis isn’t a safety problem, so is ok,” Musk added. 

    Musk also said: 

    “If anyone posted real-time locations & addresses of NYT reporters, FBI would be investigating, there’d be hearings on Capitol Hill & Biden would give speeches about end of democracy!”

    One of the first accounts suspended was @elonjet, a Twitter account operated by a college kid that tracks Musk’s private plane locations (the account is still suspended).

    Lefty journalists who had years of running amok on the social media platform where rules didn’t apply to them but only applied to their opposition have finally got a taste of what it’s like to end up in Twitter jail. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 17:12

  • Trump Vows To Ban Feds From Targeting 'Misinformation' If Elected
    Trump Vows To Ban Feds From Targeting ‘Misinformation’ If Elected

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Former President Donald Trump announced Thursday that he will bar the federal government from using terms such as “misinformation” and “disinformation” to describe domestic speech if he’s reelected.

    Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in Palm Beach, Fla., on Nov. 15, 2022. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    In a video released by the New York Post, Trump said that if he’s named the winner in 2024, one of his first executive acts will target federal rules around speech. The advertisement-like clip showed Trump making his announcement in front of two American flags.

    “Within hours of my inauguration, I will sign an executive order banning any federal department or agency from colluding with any organization, business, or person, to censor, limit, categorize, or impede the lawful speech of American citizens,” Trump said.

    “I will then ban federal money from being used to label domestic speech as ‘mis-‘ or ‘dis-information’. And I will begin the process of identifying and firing every federal bureaucrat who has engaged in domestic censorship—directly or indirectly—whether they are the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Health and Human Services, the FBI, the DOJ, no matter who they are,” he added.

    Since last week, several journalists have published installments of the “Twitter Files,” promoted by new Twitter owner Elon Musk, that revealed how Trump’s account was suspended in early 2021 as well as how officials and campaigns communicated with Twitter executives through back channels.

    The 45th president also proposed a “Digital Bill of Rights” that “should include a right to digital due process—in other words, government officials should need a court order to take down online content, not send information requests such as the FBI was sending to Twitter.”

    “In addition, all users over the age of 18 should have the right to opt-out of content moderation and curation entirely, and receive an unmanipulated stream of information if they so choose,” Trump said.

    After taking office in 2021, President Joe Biden has called on news outlets and social media firms to tackle what he said is misinformation around COVID-19 and vaccines.

    “I make a special appeal to social media companies and media outlets: Please deal with the misinformation and disinformation that is on your shows,” Biden said earlier this year. “It has to stop. COVID-19 is one of the most formidable enemies America has ever faced. We have got to work together, not against each other.”

    Months before that, Biden told reporters that Facebook, Twitter, and other platforms are “killing people” by allowing certain claims about the virus to proliferate.

    Activity

    A week after the midterm elections, Trump announced at his Mar-a-Lago resort that he would be embarking on a third campaign for president but has kept a relatively low profile since then.

    Trump has made few policy statements after his Nov. 15 speech declaring his candidacy and reportedly has not left Florida to campaign or hold rallies. Republicans, meanwhile, underperformed during the 2022 midterms after forecasters predicted a “red wave” in both the House and Senate.

    Days after announcing his candidacy, Attorney General Merrick Garland’s appointed a special counsel, Jack Smith, to lead investigations into Trump’s 2020 election challenges and handling of records since he left office. The FBI searched Trump’s home in August, recovering what Department of Justice prosecutors say were classified materials.

    Meanwhile, Trump faced controversy for a dinner meeting with rapper Kanye West and political commentator Nick Fuentes. On Truth Social, the former president described West as a “seriously troubled man” in confirming the meeting: “I told him don’t run for office, a total waste of time, can’t win.”

    Trump’s Twitter account, which has around 90 million followers now, was recently reinstated by Musk after the Tesla CEO conducted a poll that found a majority of users wanted the former president back on the platform. So far, Trump has not used his once-highly engaged account and has told media outlets that he will stick to using Truth Social instead.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 16:30

  • Texas Gov. Abbott Seeks State Probe Of NGOs Aiding Illegal Immigrants Crossing Border
    Texas Gov. Abbott Seeks State Probe Of NGOs Aiding Illegal Immigrants Crossing Border

    Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is asking the state’s attorney general to open an investigation of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that are helping illegal immigrants who are crossing the border from Mexico.

    “With the end of Title 42 just days away, the number of illegal immigrants crossing the Texas–Mexico border has reached an all-time high,” Abbott, a Republican, told Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a letter made public on Dec. 15. “Indeed, this past Sunday, over a 24-hour span, over 2,600 illegal immigrants crossed the border near El Paso and illegally entered Texas. These numbers are likely to increase in the coming weeks.”

    Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks during a press conference about the mass shooting at Uvalde High School in Uvalde, Texas, on May 27, 2022. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

    Abbott’s reference to Title 42 is to a public health emergency order issued by President Donald Trump to stop the spread of COVID-19 across the southern border that authorized federal agents to return immigrants crossing the border to Mexico to await processing of their cases, including claims of seeking asylum in the United States. A federal court ruled earlier this year that the order will be halted on Dec. 21.

    “But as the facts on the ground continue to change, we must remain vigilant in our response to this crisis. There have been recent reports that non-governmental organizations (NGOs) may have assisted with illegal border crossings near El Paso,” Abbott told Paxton.

    “We further understand NGOs may be engaged in unlawfully orchestrating other border crossings through activities on both sides of the border, including in sectors other than El Paso. In light of these reports, I am calling on the Texas Attorney General’s Office to initiate an investigation into the role of NGOs in planning and facilitating the illegal transportation of illegal immigrants across our borders.”

    Abbott’s letter to Paxton comes a day after the Heritage Foundation Oversight Project made public the results of a massive analysis of more than 30,000 anonymized cell devices used by illegal immigrants after entering the United States and receiving resettlement care and services via NGO facilities.

    The Heritage project tracked the devices to nearly every congressional district in the country, according to Mike Howell, director of the conservative foundation’s Oversight Project.

    “We now have undeniable proof that NGOs are the Biden administration’s partner in facilitating and perpetuating this historic border crisis. What’s most shameful is that these NGOs are using not just taxpayer dollars to complete the final link in the drug cartels’ human smuggling operation, but also funds donated by Americans across this country who have no idea their charitable giving is being used for this purpose,” Howell said in a statement.

    “They are working hand-in-glove with the open-borders advocates in the Biden administration to resettle untold numbers of illegal aliens across this country every month, willingly advancing the left’s goal of reshaping the American electorate and advancing their political objectives.

    “These organizations have no business engaging in such behavior. They should be investigated, held accountable, and defunded. And make no mistake, the Oversight Project is just getting started in showing the role these groups are playing in not only continuing this historic border crisis, but in fueling the cartels’ business model and encouraging millions of individuals to subject themselves to misery, suffering, and death along the journey to the border. We are ready and willing to cooperate with Texas law enforcement to pass along information regarding what we find.”

    There are dozens of NGOs involved in various ways in assisting immigrants coming into the United States. It isn’t illegal to provide such care and services to legal immigrants, but multiple federal laws may be broken when illegal immigrants are involved.

    Among such NGOs, according to the state of California, are Amnesty International USA, Catholic Charities USA, Doctors Without Borders, Human Rights Watch, U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, and Refugee Council USA.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 15:30

  • FBI Whistleblower Slams Ted Lieu, Says He Was Moved Off Child Porn Cases To Focus On J6
    FBI Whistleblower Slams Ted Lieu, Says He Was Moved Off Child Porn Cases To Focus On J6

    Following the latest ‘TWITTER FILES‘ drop, which revealed that “Twitter’s contact with the FBI was constant and pervasive, as if it were a subsidiary,” journalist Matt Taibbi commented that “Instead of chasing child sex predators or terrorists, the FBI has agents — lots of them — analyzing and mass-flagging social media posts.”

    In response, California Democratic Rep. Ted Lieu lashed out – telling Taibbi: “I’m on the House Judiciary Committee that has oversight over the @FBI and you are lying,” adding “The FBI has lots of agents chasing child sex predators and terrorists. Please stop undermining and lying about federal law enforcement.”

    To which researcher Tracy Beanz asked FBI whistleblower Steve Friend to chime in.

    Friend, a former 12-year veteran of the FBI and a SWAT team member, notably came out in October to claim that the agency went into hyperdrive to track down and investigate January 6th cases to promote the appearance of right-wing domestic terrorism, at the expense of other investigations – such as child trafficking.

    Friend was suspended and stripped of his gun and badge in September for refusing to participate in SWAT raids against January 6th subjects accused of misdemeanor offenses, according to the NY Post.

    As Taibbi wrote in November of Friend;

    He worked a child pornography detail before being transferred to the assignment that would upend his life: investigating J6. The FBI not only took Friend off vital work chasing child predators to pursue questionable investigations of people maybe connected with the Capitol riots (often in some misdemeanor fashion), they used dubious bureaucratic methods he felt put him in an impossible spot.

    Essentially, the FBI made Friend a supervisory agent in cases actually being run by the Washington field office, a trick replicated across the country that made domestic terrorism numbers appear to balloon overnight. Instead of one investigation run out of Washington, the Bureau now had hundreds of “terrorism” cases “opening” in every field office in the country. As a way to manipulate statistics, it was ingenious, but Friend could see it was also trouble.

    As a member of a dying breed of agent raised to focus on making cases and securing convictions, Friend knew putting him nominally in charge of a case he wasn’t really running was a gift to any good defense attorney, should a J6 case ever get to trial.

    “They’re gonna see my name as being the case agent, yet not a single document has my name as doing any work,” Friend says. “Now a defense lawyer can say, ‘Hey, the case agent for this case didn’t perform any work.’ Labeling the case this way would be a big hit to our prosecution.”

    And so, in response to Lieu’s tweet, Friend wrote: “Hey @tedlieu, I’ll be happy to explain how I was moved from investigating child exploitation and human trafficking and told to focus on January 6. I was told child pornographers should be considered a “local matter.””

    So far crickets from Lieu, though he’s quite the prolific Tweeter so maybe Friend will get a response.

    The FBI, meanwhile, responded to Taibbi’s “The Twitter Files” thread, in which he said that between January 2020 and November 2022, former Twitter Senior Director of Trust & Safety, Yoel Roth, had exchanged over 150 emails with the agency.

    “The FBI regularly engages with private sector entities to provide information specific to identified foreign malign influence actors’ subversive, undeclared, covert, or criminal activities,” the FBI said in a statement. “Private sector entities independently make decisions about what, if any, action they take on their platforms and for their customers after the FBI has notified them.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 15:00

  • Taibbi Hits Back After Critics Attack During 'Twitter Files' Release
    Taibbi Hits Back After Critics Attack During ‘Twitter Files’ Release

    Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

    Toward the end of work on this story a controversy blew up around the Twitter Files. I learned a little on Thursday night, and then apparently missed a whole drama that took place online Friday while I was trying to put the FBI story together.

    Once that story was out, I saw just a few critics weigh in before falling asleep. This morning highlights were passed on to me by friends. The gist was expressed by MSNBC’s Mehdi Hasan, who’s taken over the role of Ardent Establishment Moralist from Rachel Maddow, who had a firm grip on it until she spent three years bollocking the Trump-Russia story.

    Mehdi’s had a raging cable-on for all things Elon Musk for a while, apparently.

    Here’s a tweet from yesterday:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

     I actually wasn’t silent about it (see last night’s Substack piece), but even if I had been, so what? These Twitter Files stories that are coming out are getting at issues that have nothing to do with Elon Musk, Keith Olbermann, Aaron Rupar, Barney the Dinosaur, or anyone else.

    This is a chance for ordinary Americans to see, from the inside, how their tax dollars have been spent building an elaborate, systematized method of censorship and opinion control, with agencies like the DHS and the DOJ/FBI at the helm. These “enforcement” agencies are not fighting or investigating crime (or even, say, terror plots), they’re just collecting domestic intelligence on a grand scale, and seeking to distort the public’s perception of reality through mass moderation, via programs we’ve been told little to nothing about.

    Hasan believes that just as we’re getting this state-sponsored mass-censorship program in our sights, I should stop, beat my breast on Twitter about an unrelated topic every other corporate journalist in the world is already wailing about, and make the story about me at exactly the moment we’ve found good reason for people to focus their attention on agencies like the FBI and the DHS.

    There’s a divide in media, mostly generational, with conspicuous exceptions. The current reigning breed of press figure — Mehdi is a perfect example — imagines himself or herself to be first and foremost a political animal, someone who’s primary job is to advocate at all times for a point of view.

    There’s an extraordinary emphasis on “calling out,” a concept that didn’t exist when I started doing this job. A parallel example to the lunacy of last night would be the parade of people in the past weeks who insisted I had a responsibility — because we both happened to be on the Twitter Files story — to confront Bari Weiss about past actions of hers involving Columbia University and professors accused of bias against Jewish students.

    Because I didn’t throw a fit and walk out on a great story when Bari came on the scene, it’s evidence I’ve “aligned myself with the right.” I imagine once word gets out we were also civil and cooperative as we rummaged through the digital pile, this will be another count in the indictments against us both.

    This is the same bugbear that afflicted signatories of the “Harper’s Letter,” many of whom found themselves accused of hypocrisy because they co-signed a statement with (circle one) Bari/J.K. Rowling/David Frum/Katie Herzog/Jesse Singal/Others, who were deemed Bad People for reasons X, Y, Z, etc. The idea was, we don’t judge people on the basis of what they say anymore. Instead, by co-signing a statement with others, we are now responsible — indeed, we’ve implicitly endorsed — the collective actions and opinions accrued over the lifetimes of all the people whose signatures are on the same page with ours.

    Therefore you must not sign a statement, even if you believe in every word of it. You have to attach conditions: I won’t sign, you’re supposed to say, until the following three objectionable people are removed. You have to “call out” the very people who may have just gulped hard before agreeing to co-sign a petition with you.

    The furor over who signed the Harper’s Letter succeeded in its obvious aim, which was to detract from its simple, humane message, which was good enough for Salman Rushdie and Noam Chomsky: “We refuse any false choice between justice and freedom, which cannot exist without each other.”

    Instead of debating this proposition, national media turned the Harper’s Letter — quickly rechristened the “now-infamous letter” by the likes of Forbes — into a referendum on the views of people like Bari and J.K. Rowling. Its organizer, Thomas Chatterton Williams, became the subject of appalling attacks, and even after criticizing Donald Trump both in the letter and out of it, was criticized for failing to add enough quantity to his critique, not adding that Trump is a violent demagogue and mendacious racist in addition to something less than a genuine proponent of free speech. The Atlantic even pretended to be aghast that the Harpers signatories could worry about free expression in the pages of a magazine that does not pay its interns.

    This was all a show, transparently designed to obscure the point. It’s beyond obvious the same phenomenon is going on with the Twitter Files.

    I mentioned a divide in the business. There is another breed of media figure, dwindling in number, which doesn’t care where any interesting information or documentation comes from. Those of us in that group know we’re legally allowed to publish material that’s been stolen, and we’ll take newsworthy revelations from hackers, foreign spies, political zealots of all stripes, and crazy people (especially crazy people: they are some of our best sources). Some of the best journalism has come from interviews with gangsters and convicted murderers. We don’t care: if the stuff is real and newsworthy, we’ll print it.

    Subscribers to TK News can read more here…

    As usual, the graphics in Friday night’s “Twitter Files” story make the entire thread too large to sneak through Gmail’s size limit. But a readable online version of the thread lives on the TK site. You can find it by clicking here.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 14:30

  • John Carmack Rage-Quits From Meta VR Project After Doomed Experience
    John Carmack Rage-Quits From Meta VR Project After Doomed Experience

    Video game industry legend John Carmack, the man who brought us Doom, Quake and Wolfenstein, is done with Facebook’s virtual reality ‘metaverse’ project, which is apparently a complete mess.

    The 52-year-old Carmack, who joined Meta from Oculus after its $2 billion acquisition in 2014, said in an internal memo published in part by the NY Times, that he’s “wearied of the fight” and would focus on his own startup – AI firm Keen Technologies, for which he’s raised $20 million.

    “It has been a struggle for me,” Carmack wrote in the post. “I have a voice at the highest levels here, so it feels like I should be able to move things, but I’m evidently not persuasive enough.”

    When Facebook bought virtual reality company Oculus in 2014, Carmack was one of the most influential voices in the VR world. He decided to stay with the company after CEO Mark Zuckerberg chose to pivot the company’s focus – and name – towards the metaverse.

    Yet even though Meta was moving swiftly into an area that Mr. Carmack specialized in, he was sometimes a dissenting voice about how the effort was going. He became known for internal posts that criticized the decision-making and direction set forth by Mr. Zuckerberg and Andrew Bosworth, Meta’s chief technology officer. Mr. Carmack had been working part-time for the company in recent years. -NYT

    In an August podcast interview, Carmack said Meta’s $10 billion in losses within the company’s augmented reality and VR division made him “sick to my stomach,” and that the company’s metaverse efforts have been bogged down by concerns over diversity and privacy.

    Carmack has also internally criticized features of the company’s Quest VR headsets – saying that the hardware of the Quest 2 headset was “exactly what I wanted to see from the beginning,” but that the software was lacking.

    “We built something pretty close to The Right Thing,” he said.

    Still, Carmack thinks that Meta has the best shot at pulling off VR.

    “V.R. can bring value to most of the people in the world, and no company is better positioned to do it than Meta,” he wrote in his farewell post.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 14:00

  • Social Media Coordination Between DOJ And FBI Is Not Limited To Twitter: Devin Nunes
    Social Media Coordination Between DOJ And FBI Is Not Limited To Twitter: Devin Nunes

    Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The social media coordination between the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the FBI isn’t limited to Twitter, former Congressman and current CEO of President Trump’s Truth Social, Devin Nunes, alleged in an interview that aired on Newsmakers by NTD and The Epoch Times on Dec. 14.

    U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland (C), FBI Director Christopher Wray (R) and Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco hold a press conference at the U.S. Department of Justice in Washington on Oct. 24, 2022. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    The Twitter Files, a collection of internal emails and communications made public by Twitter’s new owner, Elon Musk, confirmed what many Conservatives have alleged for years. Namely, Twitter was shadow-banning accounts that didn’t fit a specific ideology and suspending accounts that bucked the chosen political narrative, Nunes claimed.

    The Twitter logo and a photo of Elon Musk are displayed through a magnifier in this illustration taken on Oct. 27, 2022. (Dado Ruvic/Reuters)

    But, the most concerning revelation in the Twitter Files, according to Nunes, is that the DOJ and the FBI had informants—whether paid or volunteers—that put forward a specific directive to Twitter, and that is likely happening on other social media platforms.

    “The coordination that the Department of Justice and the FBI clearly had with Twitter? I don’t think it stops there,” Nunes stated.

    “It seems like they were either running informants, or had paid informants, or had volunteers, where they were actively sending information on behalf of the government on who to look into, or who to ban, and that sort of thing.

    “The bigger issue is, Twitter is one thing, but what about Facebook? What about Instagram?”

    Censorship and Shadow-Banning

    According to Nunes, Trump developed Truth Social because, before Musk bought Twitter, Trump recognized that there was absolute control over public discourse in the United States.

    Furthermore, that control led to shadow banning and suspending social media accounts, so those accounts couldn’t criticize the controlling regime in the proverbial public square.

    Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) on Capitol Hill in Washington on Oct. 28, 2019. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

    And while Nunes further stated that he’d recently discussed the Twitter File drops with Trump—and in general, Trump is glad Musk purchased Twitter—Trump still believes Musk needs to release all of the Twitter Files to the public and not go through cherry-picked journalists.

    “What [do] we really need from Elon Musk and Twitter at this point? Just release all the files. Don’t just have selective journalists look at it. Release all the files so everyone can begin to evaluate them. You never know what you’re going to find [with more people looking at the files].”

    Nunes said he believes that by releasing all the files, even more will be uncovered by citizen journalists and by Congress. He added he’s not alone in the belief that Musk should release all files and noted that Jack Dorsey, Twitter’s former CEO and founder, also called on Musk to release the Twitter Files to the public.

    Legacy Media Silence

    The Twitter Files contained explosive revelations. But the legacy media has largely avoided covering the drops. When asked why there was silence, Nunes stated that the legacy media had supported a particular narrative and political party.

    Musk revealing damaging information on government censorship has put the media in an interesting predicament where if they cover the files, they also expose their complicity and damaging information to their preferred political group.

    “There’s a strange cat-and-mouse game where [Musk] is sitting on what seems to be a treasure trove of really damaging information to not only the fake news media but also to probably many areas within the United States government,” Nunes stated.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 13:30

  • Court Rules Against Biological Females Over Connecticut Transgender Athlete Policy
    Court Rules Against Biological Females Over Connecticut Transgender Athlete Policy

    A three-judge appellate panel on Friday dismissed a challenge to Connecticut’s transgender athlete policy, after a group of biological females said it was unfair that they have to race against biological males who identify as female.

    In its decision, the 2nd US Circuit Court of Appeals in New York City upheld a lower court judge’s dismissal of a lawsuit challenging the policy, brought by four female runners opposed to letting transgender athletes compete in high school sports. According to the judges, the girls lacked standing to sue, calling their claims that they were deprived of wins, state titles and athletic scholarship articles ‘speculative.’

    “All four Plaintiffs regularly competed at state track championships as high school athletes, where Plaintiffs had the opportunity to compete for state titles in different events,” reads the ruling. “And, on numerous occasions, Plaintiffs were indeed “champions,” finishing first in various events, even sometimes when competing against (transgender athletes).”

    According to the judges, “Plaintiffs simply have not been deprived of a ‘chance to be champions.’”

    The Connecticut Interscholastic Athletic Council argued its policy is designed to comply with a state law that requires all high school students be treated according to their gender identity. It also said the policy is in accordance with Title IX, the federal law that allows girls equal educational opportunities, including in athletics.

    The American Civil Liberties Union defended the two transgender athletes at the center of the lawsuit — Terry Miller and Andraya Yearwood. –AP

    A lawyer for the girls, Christiana Kiefer, said she and other attorneys for the Alliance Defending Freedom are considering how to respond, including a possible appeal to the US Supreme Court to review Friday’s decision.

    “Our clients, like all female athletes across the country, deserve fair competition,” she told AP in a phone interview. “And that means fair and equal quality of competition, and that just does not happen when you’re forced to compete against biological males in their sports.”

    “The vast majority of the American public recognizes that in order to have fair sports, we have to protect the female category, and I think you’re seeing that trend increasingly with states across the country passing laws to protect women’s sports. … This is certainly not the end of the road in the fight for fairness for female athletes,” Keiver added.

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    Attorneys on the other side celebrated.

    “Today’s ruling is a critical victory for fairness, equality, and inclusion,” said ACLU attorney Joshua Block. “This critical victory strikes at the heart of political attacks against transgender youth while helping ensure every young person has the right to play.”

    In June, a poll conducted by the Washington Post and the University of Maryland found that just 28% of the public supports transgender athletes being allowed to compete in female sports. 68 per cent of respondents believe that trans athletes “would have a competitive advantage over other girls” in youth sports.

    As Summit News noted earlier this year, top doctors told the New York Times that transgender swimmer Lia Thomas still has an unfair advantage over biological females despite the athlete having undergone testosterone suppressing therapy.

    And in October, female high school athletes in Burlington, Vermont were banned from their own locker room after making complaints to school officials about the inappropriate behavior of a biological male teammate that identifies as trans. 

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 12/17/2022 – 13:00

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