Jan 24

Today’s News 24th January 2023

  • They Won't Leave Us Alone: The Invasion Of Politics
    They Won’t Leave Us Alone: The Invasion Of Politics

    Authored by Joakim Book via The Mises Institute,

    The temptation and crucial flaw of a totalitarian mind are that everyone must play a part in a superstructural battle between good and evil. Standing on the sidelines or taking a neutral position on present topics is not allowed; one may not merely observe or ignore the madness played out among the power hungry.

    As a not-so-proud carrier of a Swedish passport, I last year lost track of how many times I was asked about Sweden’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the overreaching military alliance among Western nations. Apparently, there was a war going on somewhere. NATO countries were scrambling, and Finland and Sweden (thoroughly Western social democratic countries) were decades-old NATO holdouts. I did not know; I took pride in not knowing.

    The chattering classes and the corporate press were full-on politicking. An insider-diplomacy battle raged between Stockholm, Helsinki, and Washington, DC. At some point even, Ankara, Turkey, was involved. I did not know; I had no opinion. My friends, my colleagues, my neighbor, my barber, my friends’ friends, and various other acquaintances all wanted in on the sordid business of political commentating.

    I did not know. That was exactly it. I had no position to offer, which I quickly realized was a social mistake in this brave new world of symbolic wars for all that is “good.” I did not know anything about military matters, defense capabilities, international relations, or threat assessments regarding the various countries involved. I did not live in any of the places previously mentioned. I had no interest in their nation-state status. I did not know what the implications of NATO membership were or why it concerned me. Politicians politick with or without my input.

    Everyone needs a take; everyone needs to “be informed” on the grand, irrelevant events of our broken times. Everyone needs a flag in their profile picture—a not-so-grand gesture indicating that they support the “latest thing.”

    Paraphrasing Murray Rothbard’s quote on economic ignorance, why should I politick “a loud and vociferous position” on the diplomatic/military questions that so many of my fellow humans keep asking me for?

    On most current affairs, I imagine I am a little bit like most people; we have our own lives and our own interests to pay attention to. Everything else takes a backseat. Rather than play the hot-take-on-everything game, I just want to be a good libertarian and be left alone. Unfortunately, that does not fly in a politicized society flirting with totalitarianism. Society has lost its shared values and its unifying religious frameworks and instead elevated politics (as Friedrich Nietzsche’s old quote goes, “God is dead. . . . And we have killed him”).

    F.A. Hayek taught us in his famous 1945 “The Use of Knowledge in Society” that market prices carry information. I do not need to know anything about faraway affairs. I am perfectly capable of reading gasoline prices, suffering electricity price shocks, or paying elevated prices at the grocery store. That is the beauty of a capitalist division of labor and a market system. We do not need top-down control. We do not need the chattering classes opining about what one owes, deserves, or ought to know. All we need is the reality of what we experience as market actors.

    Like a good libertarian, I instead try to purge politics from my life; no watching the news. I only read slow news in quality magazines by authors I trust, and I routinely skip every topic that does not belong to my core interests. Life is too short. And as I have said in the past, the sum of “humanity’s current (and future) literary, statistic and economic treasure” is more valuable than the unexciting, outdated information that is tumbled, diluted, and filled with omissions, via my propaganda machine (sorry, TV news).

    In what political scientists would consider apex “political ignorance,” I take pride in not being able to name the prime minister of my native Sweden or the rulers of the other lands in which I reside. I do not know, care, or want to elevate their theater into my cognitive space.

    At a recent party, my team lost a trivia competition, partly because we could not name the United Kingdom’s last three prime ministers (They change so often that it is not worth learning their names.). When my father called on an eventful Sunday last fall, and in passing, mentioned that he had met an acquaintance at the voting booths, I learned for the first time that it was Election Day. Epic!

    Twenty-five years ago, James Dale Davidson and William Rees wrote about the public’s relationship to politics and corrupt institutions in their long-lived treatise The Sovereign Individual:

    Moral outrage against corrupt leaders is not an isolated historical phenomenon but a common precursor of change. It happens again and again whenever one era gives way to another. . . . This widespread revulsion comes into evidence well before people develop a new coherent ideology of change. As we write, there is as yet little evidence of an articulate rejection of politics. That will come later. It has not yet occurred to most of your contemporaries that a life without politics is possible. (emphasis added)

    Foreshadowing the rise of internet dominance, remote work, financial revolutions, and Bitcoin, the authors precociously reasoned about big-picture societal shifts of power. When technology allows, new societal constellations become available. Whether or not we grab onto them is up to us.

    And all meaningful changes begin at home: fix that which you can fix, clean your room, etc. A flourishing future without politics requires us to purge from our lives the corrupting features of politics, which only enrage us and separate us from our fellow humans.

    Politics is cancer, and the best you can do is to exit from it in every way you can.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/24/2023 – 00:00

  • China's Northernmost City Sees Lowest Temperatures Ever Recorded
    China’s Northernmost City Sees Lowest Temperatures Ever Recorded

    China’s “North Pole” recorded its lowest temperature since records began.

    The Chinese city of Mohe dropped to minus 53 degrees Celsius Sunday, according to China Daily, citing data from the country’s local weather bureau.

    The frigid temperatures broke a previous record of minus 52.3 degrees Celsius. Temperatures have been below minus 50 degrees Celsius for three consequence days. 

    “As a new round of extreme cold hit Heilongjiang, a number of areas in the Greater Khingan Range have recorded their coldest ever temperatures,” China Daily said. 

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    Earlier this month, we pointed out a cold air mass swirling in the Arctic was shattering records. The rural northern Siberian town of Zhilinda recorded temperatures of minus 62.1 degrees Celsius. 

    Arcfield Weather’s Paul Dorian explained recently that winter isn’t over and called for a significant change in North American weather. 

    On Monday, the weather blog Severe Weather Europe outlined:

    The Polar Vortex is starting to weaken as a strong Stratospheric Warming event is about to unfold. As the forecast indicates, the Polar Vortex will be heavily deformed but will not fully collapse. These important events can have a significant impact on the rest of winter in the United States, Canada, and Europe.

    Some meteorologists continue to tweet long-term weather models that suggest a polar vortex could result in colder weather for the US and Europe at the end of the month or early February. 

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 23:40

  • Victor Davis Hanson: Mexico Is Not Really An American Friend
    Victor Davis Hanson: Mexico Is Not Really An American Friend

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson, op-ed via Townhall.com,

    Left-wing Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador recently praised a visiting President Joe Biden:

    “Just imagine: There are 40 million Mexicans in the United States – 40 million who were born here in Mexico, (or) who are the children of people who were born in Mexico!”

    Why wouldn’t Obrador be delighted? Since Biden took office in January 2021, America has allowed some 5-6 million illegal entries across its southern border.

    Obrador further congratulated the malleable Biden whom he sees as a kindred but complacent left-wing spirit:

    “You are the first president of the United States in a very long time that has not built even one meter of wall.”

    Translated that means Mexico is delighted the United States now cares little about the security of its border, the disappearance of which is wonderful news for Mexico.

    Note that Mexico itself facilitates illegal transits across its southern border – as long as such Central American and other global migrants keep heading northward into the United States.

    But when or if they pause, try to stay in Mexico, commit crimes, or expect Mexican social services, then almost immediately Mexico City sends thousands of troops to close its border with Guatemala, deports the illegal crossers, and revives talk of building a border wall of its own.

    Biden has demolished America’s southern border. His illegal nullification of U.S. immigration law is music to Obrador’s ears.

    But it is a nightmare to Americans who poll overwhelming disapproval of the subversion of their border security. They are exhausted by the influx of death-dealing drugs. And they are furious over the hundreds of billions of dollars diverted from their strapped social services to attend to the needs of foreign nationals who have broken their laws.

    Even overwhelmed blue sanctuary cities that once boasted of nullifying federal immigration law are now beginning to object to Biden’s complicity in Mexico’s manipulation of the border.

    Obrador is delighted that Biden is the first White House occupant who in matters of the shared southern border grants all of Mexico’s wishes, but almost none of his citizens.

    That reality raises the question that if Mexico were a declared enemy of the United States, how would it behave any differently than it is now?

    Take drugs, for example. American overdoses due to fentanyl and other opioids are nearing 100,000 deaths per year.

    Almost all such lethal opiates are manufactured in factories operated by drug cartels in Mexico that enjoy de facto immunity from prosecution. The Mexican opioid industry was designed solely for lucrative export to the United States – with zero concern over the death and destruction its products cause here.

    Well aside from human trafficking and smuggling, cartel drugs indirectly earn the Mexican economy somewhere between $35-45 billion each year.

    A hostile China profits by selling Mexicans the raw product. Beijing gains satisfaction that at the present death rate, more Americans will perish this decade alone from imported Mexican drugs than all the combat deaths in all the wars since America’s founding.

    In that sense, Mexico is doing more damage to America than all our prior enemies combined.

    Obrador is equally callous in bragging that he exports his own poor. Left unsaid is that a naturally rich Mexico either will not, or cannot, adequately employ, feed, shelter, and protect its impoverished citizens.

    So instead, it cynically sees its people as a lucrative export commodity while holding U.S. laws in veritable contempt.

    Currently, Mexican nationals are sending nearly $60 billion a year in remittances from the United States to Mexico to aid friends and families who do not find enough succor from their government in Mexico City. Untaxed remittances far and away constitute the largest source of Mexico’s foreign exchange income.

    Much of that gifting is made possible by generous American state and federal subsidies to illegal aliens. Frequent subsidized housing, healthcare, legal assistance, education, and food in the United States are often used to free up cash for illegals, who then send it to Mexico.

    Mexico sees this export of its people as a win-win-win-win proposition.

    Illegal immigration to America exempts Mexico from covering the social welfare costs of its poorest.

    In safety-valve fashion, it exports the volatility of social inequality rather than spending large sums to address it.

    Mexico sees its huge and growing expatriate community as a valuable lobbying lever inside America, given the longer Mexican nationals are absent from Mexico, the more they romanticize the country they fled.

    Finally, Mexico is a left-wing nation. The more it sends its poor to the United States, the more it feels Democratic politicians who grant concessions to Mexico will gain valuable new political constituents – ensuring still further concessions.

    One sure sign of historic national decline is the collective inability of a government and its people to defend their borders and national sovereignty.

    Mexico would happily agree.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 23:20

  • China Says Over 80% Of Population Infected With COVID, No Risk Of Virus Rebound
    China Says Over 80% Of Population Infected With COVID, No Risk Of Virus Rebound

    Remember when rational voices asked why, instead of locking down its economy every time there was even a small breakout of the Wu-flu, China (or the US for that matter) didn’t simply do the right thing and allow covid to sweep through the land, creating a buffer of natural immunity and burn out on its own? Well, after bizarrely resisting the inevitable (one day we hope to have an answer why Xi Jinping pushed so hard for the now defunct Covid-zero policy) for so long, that’s precisely what China has now down and on Saturday, a prominent government scientist said that the possibility of a big COVID-19 rebound in China over the next two or three months is remote as 80% of people have now been infected, reaching the herd immunity threshold.

    While the mass movement of people during the ongoing Lunar New Year holiday period may spread the pandemic, boosting infections in some areas, a second COVID wave is unlikely in the near term, Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said on the Weibo social media platform, according to Reuters.

    Hundreds of millions of Chinese are traveling across the country for holiday reunions that had been suspended under recently eased COVID curbs, raising fears of fresh outbreaks in rural areas less equipped to manage large outbreaks.

    To ease widespread if groundless fears which had been mercilessly stoked by Beijing for the past three years, a National Health Commission official also addressed the nation on Thursday saying that China has passed the peak of COVID patients in fever clinics, emergency rooms and with critical conditions.

    According to “government data”, which in China means propaganda, nearly 60,000 people with COVID had died in hospital as of Jan. 12, roughly a month after China abruptly dismantled its zero-COVID policy. But some experts said that figure probably vastly undercounts the full impact, as it excludes those who die at home, and because many doctors have said they are discouraged from citing COVID as a cause of death.

    While over a billion Chinese having survived covid is good news, it’s terrible news for those pharma companies that held the world hostage for the past three years: after all, just how will Pfizer and Moderna be able to afford more yachts if they can’t sell their constantly changing, taxpayer-funded mRNA cocktail to the world’s (now 2nd) largest population. As for the world’s most populous country, India, it knew what was up more than a year ago when in Sept 2021 its government said it would not buy any shots from Pfizer and Moderna, thus depriving its population of countless complications from myocarditis and pericarditis.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 23:00

  • Australians Were Once Prosecuted For Claiming Face Masks Worked Against Viruses
    Australians Were Once Prosecuted For Claiming Face Masks Worked Against Viruses

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Australians who tried to sell surgical face masks on the back of claims they worked against viruses were once threatened with prosecution and massive fines by the government.

    Yes, really.

    An article titled ‘Farce mask: it’s safe for only 20 minutes’ published by the Sydney Morning Herald in 2003 explained how, “Retailers who cash in on community fears about SARS by exaggerating the health benefits of surgical masks could face fines of up to $110,000.”

    The article quotes a public health experts who said that face masks are largely useless at stopping the spread of viruses and could even worsen the situation.

    “Those masks are only effective so long as they are dry,” said Professor Yvonne Cossart of the Department of Infectious Diseases at the University of Sydney.

    “As soon as they become saturated with the moisture in your breath they stop doing their job and pass on the droplets.”

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    Professor Cossart said that the masks would need to be changed every 15-20 minutes to be in any way effective.

    Her sentiments were echoed by John Bell from the Pharmaceutical Society of Australia, who said that masks only offered “marginal benefit” and were largely psychological in their level of protection.

    The story is noteworthy because during the COVID pandemic, the Australian government imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in the world and used face mask mandates as a brutal tool of population control.

    As we previously highlighted, authorities in Melbourne used high-tech surveillance drones to catch people outside not wearing masks.

    At the height of the hysteria, there were numerous instances of police in Australia physically attacking people for not adhering to mask wearing rules, including one incident when a woman was placed in a chokehold by a male police officer.

    Another video showed an elderly woman being arrested for not wearing a mask while sitting on a park bench.

    Yet another clip showed police pepper spraying pre-teen children for not wearing face masks.

    Another clip showed an elderly man suffering a suspected heart attack after he was arrested by police for not wearing a mask outside while exercising.

    During the early months of the COVID pandemic, health authorities advised against wearing masks, only to subsequently do a 180 once face coverings became a convenient psychological tool of population control.

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 22:40

  • Nikileaks Spooks Markets That Chinese Reopening May Be Inflationary, But Wall Street Disagrees
    Nikileaks Spooks Markets That Chinese Reopening May Be Inflationary, But Wall Street Disagrees

    Monday’s furious rally, which among other things was facilitated by the Sunday report from WSJ Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos that a 25bps Feb 1 rate hike by the Fed is a done deal, hit an airpocket just after 2pm when in the latest tweet from Timiraos – whose every utterance now moves markets, especially during the Fed blackout period – and in which the WSJ reporter noted that “Just when signs point to easing inflation worldwide, China’s economic reopening after years of strict pandemic controls is raising questions about whether it could spur costs higher again.”

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    Needless to say, China’s economic reopening is a very sensitive issue: on one hand, there are those who argue easier access to reopened Chinese markets will mean smoother supply chains and cheaper goods (and transit) contributing to the current disinflation; on the other hand, should China’s reopening turn out to be “hot” and should Beijing end up exporting too much inflation (as it has in the past), it could reverse any “pause” or “pivot” plans the Fed has, and instead force it to double down on tightening later in 2023.

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    While we will have much more to say on this topic in the coming days, the initial consensus on Wall Street is that a Chinese reopening will not, in fact, be inflationary. Take last week’s Cross-Asset Dispatches note from Morgan Stanley, in which strategist Andrew Sheets explains why expectations that China’s reopening will be inflationary will disappoint. We excerpt from his note below:

    We don’t think that China’s reopening will be inflationary

    Wage growth is one risk to the Morgan Stanley ‘inflation falls’ thesis. Another is China’s reopening from Covid-zero, which has been increasingly aggressive. Our forecasts imply that this reopening will be successful, with our economists optimistic on China growth, and our strategists optimistic on China equities and FX.

    But if the world’s second-largest economy successfully reopens from Covid, won’t that drive more inflationary pressure in 2023?

    Not necessarily. Our economists see a few considerations:

    • Private consumption sees the largest rebound: Private consumption in China saw the largest drop-off as a result of Covid-zero, and has the most to gain from this ending, especially with high private savings. This demand competes less at the international level than more commodity-heavy public investment.
    • Within this, services rebound most: Our China economists see services consumption rising by 8.5%Y in 2023 versus -1.5%Y in 2022. Demand for goods also increases, but the swing is milder (+7.7%Y in 2023 versus +2.4%Y in 2022). At the risk of simplifying, more people going back to the movies isn’t very inflationary; the theatres have capacity, and this consumption doesn’t compete with demand elsewhere.
    • Supply improves: Reopening should ultimately help to ease pressure on supply chains and improve labour supply in China.

    There will be some inflationary impacts. For example, we think that China’s reopening will boost oil demand, but even here the impact is back-loaded (see The Oil Manual: Heavy Now, Higher Later, January 11, 2023).  Indeed, our economists think that the broader theme across Asia is disinflation. For more, see 2023 Asia Economics Outlook: The Year of Disinflation, November 13, 2022.

    Economists at TS Lombard reached a similar conclusion last week, writing that they expect a “limited demand pull” from China’s reopening and “even oil prices are unlikely to receive the major demand boost that many expect” to wit:

    The composition of growth will determine global demand and inflation spillovers. For the first time, a cyclical recovery in China will be led by household consumption, mainly services. There is clearly a great deal of pent-up demand and savings (about 4% of GDP) following three years of intermittent mobility restrictions. And although we are concerned about the degree of property-related scarring to household (as well as local government and bank) balance sheets, at least in 2023 there is likely to be strong catch-up demand from a very low base. For instance, trips over the first three days of the Spring Festival travel season are up 30% yoy but still only 70% of the 2019 level. Similarly, catering spending last year was just 90% of the 2019 level and tourism spending only 50%. Catch-up growth should be fairly mechanical and lead to increased job hiring (pre-Covid, 25% of all jobs in China were in catering, retail, accommodation and tourism), higher wages and more confidence. Structural problems have not disappeared – far from it – but they will not derail growth in 2023

    Globally mild inflation and limited demand pull. A recovery led by household spending on services will support fuel and catering-related commodities, but global spillovers should not be overestimated. Furthermore, demand for industrial metals is likely to come in weaker than current bullish expectations. Chinese imports are driven by investment and industrial demand. The workshop of the world does not need to buy consumer goods overseas; moreover, increases in demand for intermediate goods to meet rising domestic goods consumption are likely to be offset by falling exports and high inventories. Tourism will certainly benefit – Thailand and other regional peers are well placed. However, time will be needed for flight volumes, ticket prices and international Covid restrictions to normalize to near pre-pandemic levels. Official estimates put outbound travel at 70% of pre-Covid levels this year.

    Even oil prices are unlikely to receive the major demand boost that many expect. Transportation accounts for just 54% of China’s oil consumption vs 72% in the US and 68% in the EU. Petrochemicals constitute a much larger share, at 42%, with related China imports generally led by construction and export-oriented manufacturing (lots of plastic). Last year, net oil and refined petroleum imports were 8% lower by volume than the pre-pandemic peak – infrastructure and export-oriented manufacturing partly offset lower mobility and less property construction. Demand drivers should switch this year, with travel rising and property less negative, while infrastructure and manufacturing slow. The certain outcome is an increase in oil demand: we estimate a 5-8% increase in net import volumes, which, however, is unlikely to cause oil prices to surge, especially as China is buying at a discount from Russia. An inflationary impulse is coming from the PRC but will be domestically focused and unlikely to trouble the PBoC, let alone the Fed.

    Ironically, one of the reasons why a major monetary stimulus in China will not lead to surge in inflation abroad is that since 2015, it has become much harder and more expensive to move money offshore.

    The impetus to move funds is now arguably greater than it was in the aftermath of the surprise FX devaluation. The currency move was a one-off shock, “Common Prosperity” is here to stay. Outbound tourism offers one avenue to mask capital flight. Data on capital outflows are sparse. We can observe surface-level changes – for example, increased “golden visa” issuance to Chinese nationals – but the scale is hard to gauge. Balance of payments data are a metric of potential outflows. We think tourism spending alone is likely to reach US$40bn in quarterly outflows by the end of H1/23 based on pre-Covid trends. Net errors and omissions, another proxy for capital flight, could rise to US$50bn if there is a return to the 2017-2019 quarterly average. Given a goods surplus of US$200bn in Q3/22, this will not send the Chinese current account into deficit; but, combined with a narrower trade surplus (domestic imports rising modestly, global demand slumping), it will bring downward pressure to bear on RMB from late Q2/23 onwards.

    Translation: after China plugged the Great Firewall in 2015/2016 and made it next to impossible to use bitcoin to shuffle cash offshore, inflation has been far more localized. Of course, the counterargument also stands: if China loses control of domestic inflation and hopes to export higher prices offshore, it will then quietly open all those locks it implemented in recent years to make money laundering abroad using crypto impossible.

    More in the full reports available to pro subs in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 22:05

  • Food Inflation Update: Lull Before China's Storm?
    Food Inflation Update: Lull Before China’s Storm?

    By Russell Clark of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets Substack,

    As I and many of my subscribers have noticed, many of the key commodity drivers of inflation have seeming rolled over.

    European gas prices, Chinese pork prices, oil prices, US corn prices among others have weakened to levels seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Strangely, weak commodity prices should be disastrous for my key trade, long GLD short TLT, and yet strangely it has breached new cycle highs. Why is this?

    The first thing that should be said is that commodity investing is hard. Surprises in short term demand and supply can drive huge moves in spot markets. A good example is pork prices. Pork is particularly big driver of Chinese inflation. Chinese and US pork prices have recently fallen significantly.

    I have no idea why pork prices have fallen. The reopening of China would have made me think short term demand for pork would be higher, and hence prices would be rising. That they are falling, suggests maybe supply is robust. Confusing the picture is that Chinese corn price have not weakened, meaning that profitability for pig farmers has collapsed. All a bit confusing to be honest.

    However, my core argument is that China has turned into a net food importer, and this should be putting upward pressure on food prices, as long as China does not devalue. The data on China being a net food importer remains compelling. European exports of meat to China remain strong.

    Chinese pork prices can be greatly effected by swings in supply. However during the African Swine Flu crisis, beef consumption in China grew significantly.

    China grows very little beef (very little pasture land).

    Robust pricing for beef would point to food inflation in China still having an upward bias in my mind.

    The key argument of China becoming a food importer seems intact.

    The other end of inflation argument you could make is that energy price inflation is done. European gas prices have collapsed in recent months. In part driven by a very warm winter.

    Even more so than Chinese pork prices, natural gas prices are very susceptible to short term fluctuations in demand and supply. To get around this I look at 5 year forward futures on US natural gas. The long dated futures have yet to show an inflection in pricing to indicate we are going back to a sustained bear market.

    What I think is happening is that in early 2022, the US seemed very determined to counter inflation through what ever measure were necessary. We saw the sharpest increase in short term rates in a generation. And we also saw the biggest sell down of the strategic petroleum reserve. This sell down added about 600k barrels a day of supply to oil markets.

    As argued previously, food inflation forces wage inflation. And China becoming a food importer is creating food inflation globally.

    This means that central banks have to run aggressive interest rate policy, or inflation will return.

    GLD/TLT reflects that. When TLT is weak, which happens when the market pricing in aggressive interest rate policy, GLD is also weak. But as soon as TLT reflects a slackening of central bank resolve, GLD shoots higher. My best guess we are a short term lull in inflation, making short TLT and other bond trades look attractive here.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 22:00

  • M&M's Ends Woke "Spokescandies" After Pushback, Replacing Them With Actress Maya Rudolph
    M&M’s Ends Woke “Spokescandies” After Pushback, Replacing Them With Actress Maya Rudolph

    Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

    M&M’s says it’s pulling its increasingly woke “spokescandies” mascots after a massive pushback over the politicization of the beloved candy brand.

    Mars, the candy maker which produces M&M’s, announced on Jan. 23 that it would replace its decades-old team of M&M’s “spokescandies” mascots with the actress Maya Rudolph, after backlash by longtime fans over its failed makeover to make the brand more inclusive.

    Rudolph said she will take the place of the iconic mascots before the company’s awaited Super Bowl ad that will be aired during the game on Feb. 12.

    “I am a lifelong lover of the candy, and I feel like it’s such an honor to be asked to be part of such a legendary brand’s campaign,” she told NBC’s TODAY.

    The “spokescandies” were a team of little cartoon M&M’s mascots, which have appeared in every commercial and other marketing materials representing the candy covered chocolates since 1960.

    Even Candy Favorites Are Unable to Escape Wokeism

    In January 2022, Mars updated the cartoon mascots and M&M’s marketing with a plan to rebrand each mascot with a new backstory, clothing, and personality to be more inclusive under the slogan: “M&M’S® Creating a World Where Everyone Feels They Belong.”

    M&M’s said that its branding would “reflect an updated tone of voice that is more inclusive, welcoming, and unifying, while remaining rooted in our signature jester wit and humor.”

    The “feminine” green” M&M, for example, was criticized by the left for being marketed as “too sexy,” so was transformed into a feminist character, with the company switching out her knee-high heeled boots for sneakers.

    “Being a hypewoman for my friends, I think we all win when we see more women in leading roles, so I’m happy to take on the part of supportive friend when they succeed,” the Mars advertising has the green M&M saying.

    The “male” orange mascot became a character ridden with anxiety, and the “female” brown mascot became a boss with an assured personality.

    “Male” red, who had been the bully in the past, became kind to his co-characters.

    Mars’s most controversial change was the new purple M&M, a “lesbian” mascot which was designed to represent inclusivity.

    The new purple candy mascot was created to “help more people feel they belong,” the brand announced in September, explaining that the “lesbian” mascot “celebrates all voices, encouraging people around the world to embrace their authentic selves.”

    The purple “lesbian” made her debut with a new song called, “I’m Just Gonna Be Me,” featuring an accompanying music video.

    Mars announced in December that it would make its return to the Super Bowl with a 30-second spot during, and that the commercial would include its seven revamped M&M’s characters.

    “The latest campaign extends our purposeful work over the last year, but is rooted in a new creative territory, and we can’t wait for our fans to see what’s about to unfold,” Gabrielle Wesley, chief marketing office for Mars, wrote in a press release.

    Mars Withdraws Woke M&Ms After Fan and Media Backlash

    The rebrand, however, brought ridicule from conservative commentators and many fans, such as Fox News host Tucker Carlson, with many claiming that the makeovers were another example of a left-wing woke agenda gone too far.

    M&M’s finally conceded to its critics, posting on Jan. 23, on Instagram: 

    “America, let’s talk. In the last year, we’ve made some changes to our beloved spokescandies. We weren’t sure if anyone would even notice. And we definitely didn’t think it would break the internet. But now we get it—even a candy’s shoes can be polarizing. Which was the last thing M&M’s wanted since we’re all about bringing people together.”

    “Therefore, we have decided to take an indefinite pause on the spokescandies,” the statement continued.

    We give the final word to Tucker Carlson who summed up the farce tonight perfectly…

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 21:21

  • Pentagon Planning GOP House Speaker McCarthy Visit To Taiwan This Spring
    Pentagon Planning GOP House Speaker McCarthy Visit To Taiwan This Spring

    New House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is planning his own Taiwan trip later this year, following former speaker Nancy Pelosi’s early August visit which had set off weeks of PLA military drills which encircled the self-ruled island, including repeat breaches of the Taiwan Strait median line. 

    Fox News reported that the Pentagon is aware and busy making preparations. “The US military is drafting plans to ensure  safety on a trip to Taiwan later this year,” Fox reported.

    Via Reuters

    Punchbowl News was the first to report the trip earlier in the day Monday, and said the US military is in the “early stages” of laying the logistical groundwork.

    “McCarthy expressed support for Pelosi’s trip at the time and said he’d also travel to Taiwan if elected speaker,” Punchbowl wrote. “And just recently, McCarthy touted the House’s vote to establish a select committee on China, which received significant Democratic support.”

    An official involved in the preparations indicated it’s expected to take place at some point in the spring. Pelosi’s visit had been teased for months as a possibility but was only made public when she was already en route and about to touch down in Taipei on August 2nd, accompanied by a delegation of five Democratic Party members. They flew out the next day after meeting with top officials including President Tsai Ing-wen.

    China is already signaling severe opposition to another such ultra-provocative visit by a sitting US house speaker, an office third in line from the presidency after the vice president.

    For example, state-run Global Times addressed earlier stirrings last week when rumors of McCarthy’s trip began to surface:

    “If McCarthy does visit Taiwan in 2023,” a GT article began, “China-U.S. relations will witness another shock comparable to or even worse than that in August 2022 when Pelosi visited Taiwan.”

    McCarthy, long an advocate of getting ‘tougher’ on China, hopes to lead the House-led GOP toward putting greater scrutiny on Beijing and making the US economic and military rival a top foreign policy priority.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 21:00

  • Supreme Court's Failure To Identify Dobbs Leaker Is "Chilling", Jonathan Turley Warns "Danger Will Only Grow"
    Supreme Court’s Failure To Identify Dobbs Leaker Is “Chilling”, Jonathan Turley Warns “Danger Will Only Grow”

    Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times,

    George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley criticized the Supreme Court on Jan. 19 over its failure to determine who leaked a draft of the court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization opinion.

    After a months-long investigation sparked by the May leak, the court released its much-anticipated investigative report (pdf) on the matter Thursday, finding that it was “not possible” to identify the person responsible for the breach or how the document had ended up in the hands of Politico.

    “The Supreme Court’s report indicates that they cannot isolate the culprit among the over 80 possible suspects for the Dobbs leak,” Turley noted in a series of Jan. 19 tweets.

    “It is an admission that is almost as chilling as the leak itself.”

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    Turley also posited that, despite the security recommendations of the court’s marshal, the inconclusive investigation would likely only serve to embolden future leakers.

    “The nature of the Court’s work requires a free flow of drafts and memoranda,” he noted. “That is why we hope to achieve through deterrence what was not achieved through ethics.

    “In this age of rage, this danger will only grow,” he added.

    “Someone felt that they had license to leak. Some others may now feel that they have the impunity to do so.”

    The Leak

    While, in general, Supreme Court leaks are rare, the Dobbs leak was made all the more significant by the implications of the ruling on nearly a half-century of abortion law in the United States.

    Politico, having exclusively obtained an early draft of the opinion, published it May 2 as part of a report titled, “Supreme Court has voted to overturn abortion rights, draft opinion shows.”

    Although the draft differed slightly from the final opinion the court would issue on June 24, the decision was the same: The court ruled 5–4 that there is no constitutional right to abortion, striking down the precedents set by the 1973 landmark abortion case of Roe v. Wade and the subsequent 1992 ruling in Planned Parenthood v. Casey.

    The leaked draft sparked national protests, including outside the homes of conservative justices, with Justice Brett Kavanaugh becoming the target of an assassination attempt.

    Calling the leak an “egregious breach” of the court’s trust, Chief Justice John Roberts ordered an investigation into its source.

    “To the extent this betrayal of the confidences of the Court was intended to undermine the integrity of our operations, it will not succeed,” Roberts assured in a May 3 statement.

    “The work of the Court will not be affected in any way.”

    The Investigation

    Prior to Thursday’s report, the court had been tight-lipped on the progress of its investigation, with the only updates coming from anonymous sources.

    Led by Supreme Court Marshal Gail Curley, the court’s investigative team comprised “seasoned attorneys and trained federal investigators with substantial experience conducting criminal, administrative and cyber investigations,” per Curley’s report.

    But after conducting 126 formal interviews of 97 employees, the team was unable to identify the individual responsible for the leak.

    “No one confessed to publicly disclosing the document and none of the available forensic and other evidence provided a basis for identifying any individual as the source of the document,” Curley noted.

    While the possibility of a hack could not be entirely ruled out, the team found that the evidence did not suggest improper outside access.

    Investigators were likewise unable to rule out inadvertent or negligent disclosure, “for example, by being left in a public space either inside or outside the building.”

    Additionally, despite reports that the justices were not interviewed as part of the investigation, Curley clarified in a statement Friday that she did speak with them in addition to their staff.

    “During the course of the investigation, I spoke with each of the Justices, several on multiple occasions,” she said. “The Justices actively cooperated in this iterative process, asking questions and answering mine. I followed up on all credible leads, none of which implicated the Justices or their spouses. On this basis, I did not believe that it was necessary to ask the Justices to sign sworn affidavits.”

    While also noting in her report that investigators were still reviewing and processing some electronic data and that a few inquiries were pending, Curley proposed several security improvements to prevent future breaches, including enhanced training, tracking mechanisms to monitor the printing and copying of documents, and policy updates on the handling of draft opinions and who can access sensitive information.

    In a statement attached to the report, the court offered Curley their “full support” as she and her team continue their investigation.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 20:40

  • Blank Check? Democrats Want To Totally Eliminate Debt Ceiling With New Bill
    Blank Check? Democrats Want To Totally Eliminate Debt Ceiling With New Bill

    A group of 43 Democrats want to completely eliminate the debt ceiling, which they say Republicans have ‘weaponized’ – which would give the government a blank check to borrow without any limit from Congress.

    The End the Threat of Default Act, introduced by Rep Bill Foster (D-IL) and co-sponsored by 42 House Democrats, comes after the federal government hit the $31,381 trillion debt ceiling last week. According to Democrats, instead of attempting to responsibly spend taxpayer dollars through negotiation, it’s time to just eliminate all limits on federal borrowing.

    “Weaponizing the debt ceiling and using it as a pawn in partisan budget negotiations is dangerous and repeatedly brings our nation to the brink of default, which would be disastrous to the U.S. economy – something we’ve witnessed as recently as 2011 when Republicans created a debt ceiling crisis that resulted in the first ever downgrade to the U.S. credit rating,” said Foster.

    “The government has an obligation to pay its bills,” he added. “Threatening to default on our debt is the same as ordering an expensive meal at a restaurant, eating it, and skipping out without paying. We can and should have a real conversation about overall spending, but the full faith and credit of the United States must never be compromised.”

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    Co-sponsors of the bill include Reps. Pramila Jayapal of Washington, Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas, Gerry Connolly of Virginia, Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Barbara Lee of California, Fox News reports.

    The Biden administration and its Democrat allies in Congress have argued that raising the debt ceiling does not allow “new” spending, and only allows the government to meet its current obligations. But Republicans say congressional approval of new spending programs is what has repeatedly forced the government to keep hitting its borrowing limit, which has then forced Congress to keep raising the debt ceiling.

    Before the housing crisis in 2008, the total national debt was $9 trillion, an amount that more than tripled to more than $31 trillion in less than 15 years thanks to programs related to the housing bailout, 20 years of military presence in Afghanistan, COVID emergency response measures, and routine funding increases for defense and social programs. -Fox News

    Just before the pandemic, the federal government spent $4.4 trillion in fiscal year 2019. In 2020, that ballooned to $6.8 trillion, and then $6.3 trillion in FY2022.

    Of course, Foster did not introduce the bill when Democrats had the majority in both chambers of Congress (and would have been shot down by their own Joe Manchin) – so let’s agree this yet another transparent attempt to signal virtue.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 20:20

  • Ron Paul Hammers Debt-Ceiling Hysteria & Hypocrisy
    Ron Paul Hammers Debt-Ceiling Hysteria & Hypocrisy

    Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    This week the US government reached its 31.4 trillion dollars borrowing limit, better known as the “debt ceiling.” This led to a showdown among House Republicans, President Biden, and congressional Democrats.

    Infographic: U.S. National Debt Surpasses $31 Trillion | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    House Republicans are demanding that President Biden and Senate Democrats agree to include spending cuts with the debt ceiling increase. However, President Biden and the congressional Democrats are refusing to negotiate with Republicans. Rather, they and their allies in the mainstream media are lambasting Republicans for their “irresponsibility” in seeking to include spending cuts with an increase in the debt ceiling.

    America’s national debt is approximately 122 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), meaning the government owes more than the population produces. Interest payments on the national debt follow in size behind other federal budget big spending areas of Social Security, Medicare, and “defense.” While interest payments are made, the national debt continues to grow each year.

    Government spending steals resources from the private sector. Thus, there is less capital available for private businesses to grow and create new jobs. Government spending also contributes to price inflation and the declining value of the dollar as the Federal Reserve monetizes the debt. One reason the Fed cannot allow interest rates to rise anywhere near where they would be in a free market is that it would cause the federal government’s interest payments to rise to unsustainable levels. Considering these facts, it should be clear that the irresponsible ones are those who think the government should increase its credit limit without cutting spending.

    This is not to say that establishment Republicans like House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are heroes of fiscal restraint. Rather, McCarthy, like most Republicans, objected neither to increased spending nor to debt ceiling suspensions when Donald Trump was president. Further, any Republican spending plan will likely continue increasing spending on the military-industrial complex while refusing to address the looming cost problems with Social Security and Medicare.

    While some Republicans are willing to discuss reforms to Social Security and Medicare, most are still too afraid of the “senior lobby” to support any changes in the programs – even if such changes will not harm current beneficiaries.

    Consequently, it is unlikely Congress will pass meaningful entitlement reform — at least until it is forced to do so because the Medicare and Social Security Trust Funds run out of money.

    Insolvency is projected for the Medicare Trust Fund in five years and for the Social Security Trust Fund in 12 years. Of course, Congress may be able to avoid making tough choices since the Federal Reserve will likely cut government benefits, along with workers’ wages and the value of savings, via the inflation tax.

    Following early reports that the House Republican leadership was open to supporting cuts in military spending, there arose a predictable cry from Republican hawks that any reduction in spending would leave the US and its allies vulnerable to our enemies. The limited cuts considered, though, would still keep America with a military budget exceeding the combined military budgets of the next nine biggest spending countries. After some pressure from the military-industrial complex’s loyalists and propagandists, most Republicans retreated from supporting defense cuts.

    A problem with many fiscal conservatives is they accept the premise of the welfare-warfare statists. Thus, they are unable to make consistent principled arguments supporting spending cuts and opposing spending increases. The key to restoring a free society is for a critical mass of individuals to reject statism.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 20:00

  • ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead – Germany's Leopard Tank Dilemma & Warnings Of "Global Catastrophe"
    ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead – Germany’s Leopard Tank Dilemma & Warnings Of “Global Catastrophe”

    A weekly round-up of geopolitical flashpoint and energy news we’re keeping our eyes on, and trends impacting global markets, which will later be accessible for Premium members and above…

    The start of this week saw no less than four top level Russian officials warn of impending “global catastrophe” if the West keeps ramping up heavier arms to Ukraine, now as the decision of Germany to sign off on sending its Leopard II tanks looms.

    State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the lower house of Russia’s parliament, asserted in fresh remarks that NATO providing more weapons to Ukraine risks “global tragedy that would destroy” Western countries. “Supplies of offensive weapons to the Kyiv regime would lead to a global catastrophe,” Volodin said. “If Washington and NATO supply weapons that would be used for striking peaceful cities and making attempts to seize our territory as they threaten to do, it would trigger a retaliation with more powerful weapons.”

    And one can read further ultra dire warnings from Moscow’s point of view… specifically from Lavrov, Peskov, and Medvedev… all statements issued on Monday. The red line is being laid out quite brightly. 

    As for whether these escalatory scenarios will come to pass, with Russia and the West continuing to slide toward direct military confrontation, the question of whether or not Germany resists the growing pressure from allies for it to lead the way on sending its Leopard 2 main battle tanks looms. Can Berlin resist? Will Kremlin warnings be heeded by Berlin? And for how long? Despite a growing political rift both within the Scholz government among NATO allies more broadly, it’s not looking good. Germany has already bowed to pressure early in the conflict, given it walked away from its historic neutrality. The outcome to the tank question is likely to be decided by month’s end.

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    To gain a sense of the gloomy, apocalyptic outlook from Moscow on a looming war with NATO and the future course of the Ukraine conflict, see the above weekend Russian state TV segment with a panel of officials moderated by editor-in-chief of RT, Margarita Simonyan. Very serious talk indeed.

    * * *

    Below are global developments we are closely following this week…

    Russia-Ukraine

    • Poland ramping up pressure on Berlin to send German tanks to Ukraine: DW

    • Warns Germany of “international isolation”… could send without approval?: DW

    • Broader NATO pressure (and division) mounts over tank issue: AW

    • State Duma official says “global catastrophe” coming due to ramped up Western arms: RTRS

    • German Intelligence: Ukraine losing hundreds of soldiers daily: AW

    • Russia touts gains around Bakhmut, smashes Ukrainian lines with artillery: TASS

    • US media cites anon officials to claim spate of mail bomb attacks at embassies in Europe the work of Russian intelligence: NYT

    • The long expected Russian offensive in Ukraine has begun: MofA

    • Former PM Boris Johnson makes yet another visit to Kiev: RTRS

    • NATO Baltic members Estonia & Lithuania boot Russian ambassadors, downgrade relations: RTRS

    • Very dark Russian state TV segment predicts worst-case spiral: Video

    • Norway holding Wagner deserter, will not deport to Russia: DW

    • Pentagon extends airborne troop deployment in southeast Romania: AW

    China-Asia

    • US National Guard training Taiwan troops in expanded program: Nikkei 

    • GOP House Speaker McCarthy planning Taiwan visit: PN

    • Will China view it differently than Pelosi’s visit, given he’s in ‘opposition’? SCMP

    • Germany eyes ‘China lite’ future that is less dependent: Nikkei

    • China will join Russia and South Africa for February naval drills: SCMP

    • Beijing issues another veiled warning over Taiwan: VOA

    • Yellen in Africa talks China threat: FT

    • China’s biggest oil trading firm goes on a buying spree: OP

    Middle East/World

    • Pressure on US occupation in Syria ramping up with drone attacks: Hill

    • Lebanese pound crashes to new low of 50,000 against the dollar: NA

    • Hardline Israeli govt risks triggering another Gaza flare-up: NA

    • Soaring inflation in Egypt… on the brink of another uprising? MEE

    • Israel-Saudi normalization efforts off to rocky start: JPost

    • 130,000 Israelis protest govt’s anti-democratic reforms: Haaretz

    • Pentagon can’t account for $220BN of gear given to contractors: Reason

    • Abraham Accords not so popular on ‘Arab street’: RS

    • Saudi goods allowed in Syria after 11 years of trade ban: MEE

    • Erdogan tells Sweden not to expect Nato bid support: BBC

    • South Africa likely to use China and Russia as “bargaining chips” in its dealings with US: SCMP

    Energy

    • Massive blackout in Pakistan impacts some 200 million people: BBC

    • UK’s National Grid to pay people to use less power as cold snap bites: RTRS

    • Musk agrees with JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon that it will take 50 years to transition to green energy: FOX

    • Italy to wean itself off Russian gas within two years: OP

    • US energy chief says Biden would veto House Republican bill on oil reserve: RTRS

    • Oil market braces for fresh turmoil as EU prepares to cut off Russian diesel: FT

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 19:40

  • Biden Administration Still Pushing For Forced Masking
    Biden Administration Still Pushing For Forced Masking

    Authored by Ian Miller via The Brownstone Institute,

    The Biden Administration recently reinforced their commitment to retaining authority to impose endless COVID mandates on the American people…

    In April 2022, a federal judge in Florida ruled that the CDC had overstepped its authority by requiring airlines to mandate masks on domestic flights.

    Essentially every company almost immediately moved to make masks optional. Many even allowed passengers, in flight, to remove their masks, to mass celebrations.

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    It was also a dramatic win for science, as years of data have proven that masks are entirely ineffective at preventing the spread of COVID.

    The unfortunate trend of in-flight arguments and fights also dropped dramatically after the court overturned the mandate.

    In February 2022, the rate of unruly passenger incidents on domestic flights was 6.4 per 10,000 travelers. Following the end of the mandate, that number dropped to 1.7 per 10,000. 

    So, not only do masks not work, they actually likely cause significant, potentially dangerous disagreements.

    Experts warned that it would lead to a surge in flight cancellations within a few weeks. Naturally, cancellation data showed that the exact opposite situation unfolded.

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    Additionally, in the nearly nine months since the policy ended, cases in the US have remained low. While the winter of 2021-2022 saw a massive surge of infections with the mandate in place, no such surge materialized through the end of 2022.

    But none of that’s stopped the Biden administration from appealing the ruling.

    While this might not necessarily mean the immediate return of mandates on planes, it would allow the CDC to retain that authority.

    Will Mask Mandates Return?

    Oral arguments in the case were scheduled for Tuesday, with no indication yet how the appeal will go. But previous statements by the Justice Department show how committed they are to masking.

    Despite the inarguable reality that masks do not work to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses, the attorney arguing the case said that they should have the authority to reimpose mandates for future pandemics.

    “You can imagine the next pandemic, there was an outbreak of measles or SARS and the CDC would want to and need to take swift action in order to control such a pandemic in the future,” the attorney for the Justice Department said.

    “I think the important thing here is that the potential collateral estoppel effect of the district court’s ruling could tie up future CDC actions.”

    It’s extremely concerning that the Justice Department apparently believes that masks on planes would be able to “control such a pandemic,” especially measles. 

    It’s equally concerning that they believe the CDC is competent enough to “control such a pandemic.”

    They utterly failed to “control” this one with masks on public transit. On top of their recommendations that politicians enact some of the most draconian restrictions on normal life ever enacted in the United States.

    But their lockdowns, masks, vaccine passports and other recommended policies were entirely unable to prevent the spread of a highly infectious respiratory virus.

    Yet Biden and his administration are arguing they be allowed to exercise similar, near unlimited control over the freedoms of American citizens regardless.

    Thankfully, a lawyer defending the end of the mandate pointed out the obvious; this has nothing to do with public health. He explained that the appeal’s timing shows how little connection it bears to Americans’ health.

    “This appeal is not about an urgent matter of public health. If the mask order had been such an urgent matter of public health, you would have expected CDC to have applied for a stay to the district court’s ruling,” said the attorney representing the Health Freedom Defense Fund.

    Of course, he’s entirely right. This appeal is about politics, not science.

    Biden and his team want the ability to enforce mandates at their choosing, even after everyone paying attention has seen how pointless and ineffective they are.

    So while it’s hard to say for certain if they would bring back mandates, it’s certainly fair to say that they might.

    Lawyer Jenin Younes explained in several Twitter threads how the circle of authority leads to endless masking.

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    The CDC creates terrible, poorly conducted research and studies claiming to show that masks work. Judges defer to their research to avoid deciding scientific questions, leading them to side with the CDC. Despite the CDC’s demonstrable ineffectiveness and incompetence. 

    They refuse to admit they were wrong, and so instead of learning from their overreach and repeated failures, they’re desperately clawing to retain powers they never had.

    Given that their utterly ridiculous recommendations on masking persist into 2023, it wouldn’t be hard to believe they’d bring them back at the first sign of a “surge.”

    To them, it doesn’t matter how often they’re wrong, it matters that they’re able to tell you what to do.

    *  *  *

    Republished from the author’s Substack

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 19:20

  • California City Gives Up On 100% Renewable Plan
    California City Gives Up On 100% Renewable Plan

    By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com,

    As California goes, so goes the nation, or so they say. If that rings true, the nation is set for a reversal of some of its strictest renewable energy plans, after the Huntington Beach City Council voted to dump its plan for 100% renewable energy…

    Huntington Beach, California, is changing the plan it had in place with the Orange County Power Authority (OCPA) – a nonprofit offering clean energy.

    But its recent history in a rather unfavorable media limelight has given the city council pause.

    And Huntington Beach wasn’t the first municipality to pull out – Orange County bailed on the green power authority, citing transparency concerns and a series of ugly audits, and allegations that the authority failed to inform the public that their electricity bills were increasing. Orange County was set to begin receiving green power from the authority by the end of this year. The cost of having the county pull out is estimated to be around $65 million.

    For Huntington Beach, there were three plans before it when considering a change in plan:

    1. to keep the 100% renewable energy plan as is,

    2. to go with a “Smart Choice” plan offering 69% renewable energy,

    3. or the “Basic Choice” plan that offered 38% renewable energy.

    They opted for the Basic Choice plan in a vote of 4-3.

    The city council’s change of plan drew criticism from some, while the council argued that the money saved from the pull-out could be better used on other projects, such as enforcing laws around homelessness.

    Huntington Beach’s change of plans follows the launch of the Department of Energy’s $50 million project to help communities transition to clean energy systems—the C2C program.

    “With C2C, we’re helping all kinds of communities — from small rural communities to sprawling urban areas — access the tools and scientific and technological expertise they need to bring their energy systems into the 21st Century” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm in a statement earlier this week. “This exciting program will help communities make informed decisions about their own energy needs and ensure reliable and affordable clean energy is available to Americans everywhere.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 19:00

  • FBI's Most Wanted Woman, Known As 'Cryptoqueen' Sends Signal After Five Years Of Hiding
    FBI’s Most Wanted Woman, Known As ‘Cryptoqueen’ Sends Signal After Five Years Of Hiding

    Ruja Ignatova, known as the “cryptoqueen” for her notorious multi-billion dollar OneCoin Ponzi scheme, has been declared missing since 2017 when US authorities issued a warrant for her arrest. Earlier this month, a legal filing could be the first signs of life after she fled Sofia, Bulgaria, to Athens, Greece, five years ago. 

    Last week, the British newspaper iNews reported that a lawyer representing Ignatova claimed a $13.6 million penthouse in central London. 

    The property is owned by Abbots House Penthouse Limited, an anonymous Guernsey shell company, meaning that Ignatova’s name does not have to appear on land registry deeds or in public records.

    A change in Companies House rules means that beneficial owners of UK-registered firms must now be named in full. But the fugitive appears to have emerged out of hiding to make a formal claim on the London property. -iNews

    Jamie Bartlett, the host of The Missing Cryptoqueen podcast, who has tried to locate Ignatova, said this news was “one of the most interesting developments in the story.”

    “The world’s most wanted woman is now officially listed as the ultimate beneficial owner of a London penthouse,” he added.

    “It suggests she is still alive, and there are documents out there somewhere which contain vital clues as to her recent whereabouts. If nothing else it should make it easier for the authorities to freeze that asset – and maybe even start getting money back to victims.”

    The FBI believes she might have traveled on a German passport from Athens, possibly to the UAE, Germany, Russia, Eastern Europe, or even back to Bulgaria. She is on the FBI’s top 10 ‘most wanted’ list concerning $4 billion cryptocurrency fraud. It wouldn’t be a surprise if she used some high-quality fake identity documents and altered her appearance to evade authorities. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 18:40

  • Iran Claims Panama Oil Tanker Cancellations Were Politically Motivated
    Iran Claims Panama Oil Tanker Cancellations Were Politically Motivated

    By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,

    Iran has dismissed the significance of Panama’s de-flagging of more than a hundred tankers allegedly used by Iran to ship oil abroad in violation of U.S. sanctions.

    “We reiterate that such efforts are not only viewed as insignificant and unsubstantiated, but they have been publicized due to political pressure by the imperialist government of the United States,” the Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization said in a statement cited by Press TV.

    The statement followed the release by the Panama Maritime Authority of another statement saying it had de-flagged several hundred vessels since 2019 in compliance with the UN’s Convention on the Law of the Sea and in line with Panama’s own efforts to counter illicit financing and illegal fishing, Forbes’ Dominic Dudley reported earlier this month.

    The AMP’s statement came in response to an op-ed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, in which he claimed Panama had been helping Iran’s regime to survive by helping the government smuggle oil in violation of sanctions. Jeb Bush sits on the advisory board of an organization dubbed United Against Nuclear Iran.

    The Panama Maritime Authority (AMP), the entity in charge of the Panamanian Ship Registry, rejected the assertions made by Jeb Bush, a member of the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) Advisory Board, in a Washington Post op-ed from January 16, 2023, titled “How the United States can stop Panama from helping Iran avoid oil sanctions,” the AMP said in its statement.

    “The Government of Panama maintains a close collaboration with the Government of the United States of America through the Embassy of the United States in Panama, and through direct communication with the Department of State, regarding the Registry of Ships and other safety issues of shared importance,” the authority also said.

    In its response, the Iranian maritime authority advised Panama to think about the legal and international implications of such statements, Press TV reported.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 18:20

  • "Labor Hoarding": New Theory Emerges To Explain The Lack Of Labor Market Collapse
    “Labor Hoarding”: New Theory Emerges To Explain The Lack Of Labor Market Collapse

    Setting aside how credible any data released by the BLS now is – considering that not just this website but even the Philly Fed has challenged the accuracy of the Payroll reports’ Establishment survey, while Goldman recent found that actual layoffs as indicated by state WARN notices are far higher than those seasonally adjusted by the Department of Labor, there was one data point that prompted quite a few commentators to scratch their heads. Recall that one of the reasons stocks were pleasantly surprised by the jobs report is that not only did payrolls dip again (if printing as usual above average), but average hourly earnings slumped. But there was more: alongside the decline in wages, average hours worked also declined (which had a material impact on the average wages, and had hours been flat, the decline in average wages would have been even more pronounced).

    Why does this matter? Well, as Goldman trader Rich Privorotsky wrote on Friday, the deceleration in wage gains as of late and “the shirking of hours worked is in no way consistent with a wage spiral, and in fact suggests something unusual might be happening as corporates reluctant to shed hard to find labor are shrinking the work-week/hours worked rather than cutting payrolls.” This would make intuitive sense if one assumes that employers are still smarting from the difficulty to find workers in the post-covid months when millions of low and medium-income workers simply exited the workforce. As such, if everyone is convinced that the coming recession will be light, employers are more tempted to shrink (in some cases aggressively) their employees’ hours rather then engage in layoffs, especially if they are concerned they will have difficulty finding workers in a few months (all of this, of course, assumes that the recession will be “shallow” whatever that means).

    As evidence, Privorotsky shows the decline in the average employee workweek as proxied by both the Philadelphia and Empire Fed’s surveys.

    Others at Goldman agree, and in a note published by the bank’s economist team looking at the ongoing rebalancing in the labor market (available to pro subs), they found that while Labor demand still remains high it is now falling: “The trend has admittedly become murkier recently as measures of job openings have diverged. But the average of these measures is still declining, and business surveys also suggest that total labor demand is still coming down.”

    Here is the interesting part in the Goldman report, :

    Labor supply has at most a bit more room to recover. The discussion about labor supply during the pandemic has mostly centered on “missing workers,” and for the first couple of years there was indeed room for the labor force participation rate to rebound as fiscal support and Covid fears faded.

    But we noted last summer that the participation rate had already largely recovered, and the small increase in December to 62.3% brought it to our year-end target that embedded some further cyclical recovery to offset an ongoing downward trend driven by demographics. While prime-age participation is still a bit below its pre-pandemic rate, the overall participation rate has now nearly returned to the CBO’s estimate of the trend implied by demographic changes, as shown on the left of Exhibit 4, and a new paper by economists Bart Hobijn and Ayşegül Şahin also suggests that the gap is largely closed.

    The remaining labor supply shortfall relative to pre-pandemic trends actually comes less from reduced participation than from a decline in average work hours. In another paper, Şahin, R. Jason Faberman, and Andreas I. Mueller use data from a supplement to the New York Fed’s consumer survey to show that workers’ desired work hours dropped sharply during the pandemic and remained depressed at least through the end of 2021, when their data end, with much of the decline coming from people classified as outside of the labor force who occasionally enter it, such as retirees. New research by Dain Lee, Jinhyeok Park, and Yongseok Shin shows that average hours have fallen since 2019, especially among college-educated prime-age men and among those who work the longest hours, as shown on the right of Exhibit 4. Because, as the authors note, these workers work far longer hours than is typical for US workers let alone those in other high-income countries, this change might persist to some extent.

    Maybe the best discussion on this topic comes from Amberwave co-founder Stephen Miran, who earlier today tweeted some of his observations on why the US is still not in a recession, and concludes that “the principal reason is the missing construction layoffs.  Mortgage rates shot up from 3% to 7%, making buying a home unaffordable for many folks.  Normally, one expects a slowdown in construction activity and layoffs.  But, construction employment is at all time highs!”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Arguing that in light of the dramatic slowdown in activity in the construction sector, “we’d expect huge layoffs”  with “expected layoffs in the neighborhood of 500k to 800k jobs, and with multipliers, this would be 1 to 3 million total losses. That’s a real recession.”

    But these layoffs still haven’t taken place, prompting Miran to proposed several explanations why not:

    1. They will.  (Maybe, but I don’t see -any- sign of them in the data…yet.). There are some reasons for expecting the layoffs to eventually come.  In particular, the huge divergence between the number of homes being sold and the number of homes currently under construction, which will presumably come down as homes are completed.

    2. The extraordinary backlog of homes demand due to pandemic changes in the economy like wfh.  This is a possible explanation, but presumably at some point runs out?

    3. Labor hoarding by builders, i.e. holding onto employees for fear of being able to replace them if necessary in a tight labor market.  Miran says that he is “generally dismissive of labor hoarding for the economy as a whole, but more sympathetic in the building sector.  Why?”

    The principal reason is the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, passed in 2021.  As I pointed out at the time in WSJopinion, the IIJA is going to further fuel inflation.

    Going into CY2023, there’s going to be ~$38 billion of Federal spending on construction and other projects kicking in. In CY24, it’ll be closer to $54 billion.  Assuming some multipliers, these go a long way to offsetting a big chunk of the decline in private structures spending. (Ignore the decline in direct spending here, that’s largely the offsets from reduced spending on phrama or subsidies to GSEs)

    In other words, I suspect builders are holding onto employees because the $$$ being spent by Uncle Sam on construction are going to start kicking in this year.  Given a historically tight labor market where employees seem to have all the power, they’d rather hold onto the workers

    Why lay off your workers now if you expect real difficulty in hiring them back if building starts to pick back up, particularly for nonresidential construction?

    While this may well be the most likely explanation, and one which will be tested most easily by the severity of the coming recession (if indeed there is labor hoarding within construction, an extended deterioration in the sector will only result in an even more acute collapse in construction jobs in the near-term), there is another possible explanation, namely that financial conditions have eased significantly since September: stocks, mortgage rates, the dollar.

    It’s not difficult to imagine a world in which home prices fall by 10% or so, but given strong wages, resilient stocks, and falling mortgage rates, final demand stays robust.  Given the historic run up in home prices, builders are still very profitable at those levels. In other words, maybe builders expect a surge of private demand in the near future and are therefore holding onto their employees.

    Miran’s conclusion is spot on, and boils down to the following: The missing construction layoffs ARE the missing recession.  If they come, we’ll have a recession.  There’s a reason for expecting them to come (homes under construction lagging sales), and reasons for expecting them not to (future demand picking up, private & public)

    Watching this sector will give us a clue as to whether we’ll see a recession or not.  In the meantime, real incomes are accelerating on lower inflation, and as I’ve stressed 100x, financial conditions easing ought to induce a pickup in GDP growth

    There is thus some chance the economy reaccelerates before those layoffs come, and the recession is avoided.  However, in that case, the Fed will be goaded into a new hiking cycle, as inflation will pick back up, and the recession will be delayed and not avoided.

    Afternote: there’s a race between the exhaustion of the backlog & the coming construction layoffs, vs. a reacceleration of the economy on easing financial conditions & IIJA boosting construction demand. Which of these forces wins the race determines whether we have:

    • Recession, or
    • Burst of growth, followed by new hiking cycle, followed by recession

    In other words, we will either get a recession, if construction employment suddenly tumbles, or we will get a transitory growth burst – largely on the back of the market pricing in the coming Fed pause – which will avoid a round of mass layoffs in construction, which will however lead to even more inflation, and an even more aggressive hiking cycle, leading also to recession.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 18:00

  • Social Security Will Be Bankrupt By 2033 On Current Trajectory: CBO Report
    Social Security Will Be Bankrupt By 2033 On Current Trajectory: CBO Report

    Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,

    A recent report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that two major Social Security funds in the United States will dry out in the coming decades, with one of them running out within the next 10 years as younger members in the programs are set to lose more than older members.

    “If the gap between the trust funds’ outlays and income occurs as CBO projects, then the balance in the trust funds will decline to zero in 2033 and the Social Security Administration will no longer be able to pay full benefits when they are due,” the CBO stated in its report, published in December (pdf).

    The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2033 and the Disability Insurance Trust Fund will be exhausted in 2048, the agency said. If the trust funds are combined, the money will be gone by 2033.

    The CBO expects spending on Social Security to increase to 7 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in 2096, up from 5 percent of the GDP in 2022.

    During this period, revenues are only expected to remain at 4.6 percent of GDP, resulting in an ongoing deficit.

    If Social Security outlays were limited to what is payable from annual tax revenues, the benefit payments would be roughly 23 percent smaller than originally scheduled by 2034. By 2096, the benefit payments would be 35 percent smaller, with the gap remaining stable from then on.

    In such a situation, the younger cohort born in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s would see their initial benefits reduced by 24, 27, and 28 percent respectively. Their lifetime benefits would be reduced by 26, 27, and 27 percent, respectively.

    For older beneficiaries born in the 1950s and 60s, initial benefits would not be affected too much. Their lifetime benefits would be reduced by 9 percent and 19 percent, respectively.

    Protecting Social Security of Senior Citizens

    In 2021, Social Security amounted to 17 percent of federal spending, according to the CBO. Lawmakers are currently debating how to address America’s debt ceiling issue, with some proposing cuts to Social Security. The United States officially hit its debt limit on Thursday.

    In a video message, former President Donald Trump called on GOP members to not compromise on Social Security.

    “Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security to help pay for Joe Biden’s reckless spending spree, which is more reckless than anybody’s ever done or had in the history of our country,” Trump said in the statement posted to Truth Social on Friday.

    “Do not cut the benefits our seniors worked for and paid for their entire lives,” he said. “Save Social Security. Don’t destroy it.”

    The CBO projections come as Social Security benefits are set to increase by 8.7 percent in 2023, which is the biggest boost in four decades. In 2022, benefit payments were increased by 5.9 percent.

    Despite the record increase in benefit payments this year, there are concerns about whether it will be enough to keep up with decades-high inflation.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/23/2023 – 17:40

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jan 23

Today’s News 23rd January 2023

  • Paul Craig Roberts: How Troublesome Presidents Are Disposed Of
    Paul Craig Roberts: How Troublesome Presidents Are Disposed Of

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Tucker Carlson provides an excellent 12 minute report about the CIA’s removal of President Kennedy and President Nixon. I recommend that you watch it 2 or 3 times until it sinks in and forward it to all of your friends and relatives. There is nowhere else  you can get so much solid and important information in 12 minutes.

    Carlson believes that Biden, no longer useful to the establishment, is currently undergoing removal.

    I have reported the truth about the removal of Presidents Kennedy and Nixon from office for decades.  It was thrilling to me to see after a half century Tucker Carlson give the same explanations to such a large audience.  If Americans could only wake up and become involved it might be possible to save our country and the liberty of Americans.

    President John F. Kennedy was murdered by the CIA and US Joint Chiefs of Staff once he realized that the government he headed was not the real government.  His predecessor President Eisenhower, a 5-star general, warned about the threat to democratic government posed by the military/industrial complex.  President Kennedy intended to do something about it while the president still had some power, but he was struck down before he could do more than fire CIA Director Allen Dulles and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Lyman Lemnitzer.  President Kennedy wasn’t able to get rid of General Lemnitzer, who transitioned to Supreme Allied Commander of NATO. Both Dulles and Lemnitzer are suspected of directing the plot against Kennedy’s life.

    President Nixon was the best informed and best respected abroad president of any in US history.  He kept in touch with foreign leaders and was well informed about historical and current events.  But he also, like Kennedy and Trump, over estimated the power of the president.

    Nixon incurred the wrath, as I once again reported on January 19 of the military/security complex with his arms control agreements with the Soviet Union and his opening to China.  The assassination of  President Kennedy was so obviously an in-house murder, covered up by the CIA’s media whores and the Warren Commission, that the CIA dared not murder a second president.  Instead, the CIA saw that one of its operatives was placed as a journalist at the Washington Post, a long-time CIA asset, never a newspaper, to head the “Watergate” investigation of President Nixon which was used to drive him from office despite Nixon being reelected by the largest margin in US history.

    Donald Trump, being a real estate mogul, knew nothing of Washington or who really rules it.

    By declaring his intention of normalizing relations with Russia, he blindly took on the CIA and the subterranean rulers of the US.  

    And again the media was used to get rid of him:  “Russiagate,” two impeachment attempts, “January 6 Insurrection,” and now “Documents gate.”

    The President isn’t even protected by the Secret Service.  As the tourist video clearly shows, the Secret Service men along the side of President Kennedy’s open limo in Dallas were called away by a Secret Service superior.  The video shows the resistance of one of the Secret Service agents to the order.  Once the Secret Service agents were removed, the video shows that Kennedy was killed from a bullet from in front that blew out the back of his head. The video shows his wife reaching out on the back of the limo to get the back of his blown away head.

    Despite this clear cut undeniable evidence  the Warren Commission ruled that Kennedy was shot from behind by Oswald, the patsy that the CIA had lined up to take the blame. Before Oswald could talk or be questioned he was killed in police custody by Jack Ruby  (Jacob Leon Rubensein), a person whose presence is inexplicable,  who was permitted by the police to be armed next to Oswald.

    The bulk of the insouciant American population fell for this most improbable of all accounts, but many intelligent people did not.  

    So the CIA did not dare murder Nixon physically. They used their Washington Post asset to murder him politically, as they used media to get rid of Donald Trump.

    Americans who think they live in a democracy are out to lunch. Americans, so easily fooled time and again, are the reason we have lost our country and the freedom and the hope that it once represented in the world.

    How many Americans understand that they no longer live in a free country,  that they are the ruled subjects of they know not who? Voting is a cloak, a deception.  No one the people prefer can be elected to the office of president.  If, like Trump, he gets there unexpected, he is removed.

    The founder of American civil liberty, Thomas Jefferson, warned us that freedom cannot exist more than 200 years before it has to be refreshed by bloody revolution. He overestimated the life of freedom.  

    Over the course of my life the meaning of freedom has changed.  It no longer means what the Founding Fathers, today denounced as racists, meant, which was self-rule and freedom from oppressive government. Today freedom is the freedom of blacks to rob stores without prosecution,  the freedom of the government and its media whores to censor and suppress truth, free expression, and free association, the freedom of government to arrest and imprison people who exercise their civil liberties as “insurrectionists,” the freedom of government and its media whores to brand truth-tellers as “threats to democracy” who are guilty of spreading “misinformation,” the freedom to take away the medical licenses of doctors who saved lives by using medicines banned by Big Pharma’s treatment protocols.

    People born in recent decades have no idea how off the wall this is to someone who lived in the real America in the past.  When my  generation passes, there will be no one alive who knows what America once was.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 23:30

  • Egg Crisis Sparks Soaring Interest In Backyard Farms
    Egg Crisis Sparks Soaring Interest In Backyard Farms

    Covid supply chain snarls turned millions of Americans into “preppers” overnight. The run on toilet paper, food, guns, ammunition, and other essential items for survival pushed millions to consider preparedness for a crisis.

    Remember all those old-school preppers? The media used to refer to them as “extreme” and even called them “tin-foil hat conspiracy” folks, but during the shutdowns, those folks were right, and the mainstream media got it wrong. 

    The next shortage underway is eggs. Readers have seen our notes on supermarkets nationwide running out of eggs. The egg shortage is so severe that last week the US Customs and Border Protection reported that egg smuggling from Mexico erupted. 

    And why is that? Well, a dozen Grade A eggs in the US have topped $4.25 at supermarkets. In Mexico, a 30 count of eggs is about $3.40. 

    US egg prices have topped the national average gasoline per gallon price at the pump. 

    As a result of the egg crisis, internet search trends on Google show Americans are panic searching where to find egg-laying hens for their backyard. 

    The search trend “where to buy chickens near me” erupted to a near multi-decade high. 

    “Buy chickens near me” searches explode across the US. 

    Besides the Covid spike, “how to raise chickens” has spiked to levels not seen in a decade. 

    Over the last several years, food insecurity has pushed many Americans to create ‘little backyard farms’- something their parents or grandparents did more than half a century ago. Living off the land was standard decades ago, but as metropolises sprung up, people relied more on a corporation (or even the government) to provide food. 

    Soaring distrust in government and corporations had transformed many into preppers following the pandemic shutdowns when some supplies were impossible to find. People don’t want to be left empty-handed when the next crisis arises. This has led to a new generation of preppers and the normalization of being prepared. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 23:00

  • China To Accelerate The Construction Of Coal-Fired Power Plants
    China To Accelerate The Construction Of Coal-Fired Power Plants

    Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

    China expects to add 70 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power generation this year, up from 40 GW of capacity from coal installed in 2022, a report from the power sector’s group, China Electricity Council, showed.

    The coal additions, however, will not be the biggest capacity increases in China in 2023, per the report quoted by Bloomberg.

    Solar and wind will see massive growth in capacity additions this year, too, with solar power expected to add a huge 100 GW of capacity and wind—another 65 GW, China Electricity Council said.   

    China’s electricity generation capacity from renewable sources is expected to jump above 50% for the first time this year. According to the power sector’s lobbying group, low-carbon electricity sources will account for over 52% of total power capacity in China by the end of 2023, up from 49.6% at the end of last year.  

    After the end of the ‘zero Covid’ policy, China’s power demand is expected to jump by 6% in 2023, up from the 3.6% growth seen last year, according to the China Electricity Council.

    Although renewable energy installations are set to jump, coal-fired capacity additions in China will also surge this year as Beijing has put more emphasis on energy security since the autumn of 2021 when power shortages crippled its industry.

    In 2022, China said it would continue to maximize the use of coal in the coming years as it caters to its energy security, despite pledges to contribute to global efforts to reduce emissions.

    In recent months, China has significantly boosted its coal production, following government orders. 

    [ZH: how dare you!?]

    China produced a record amount of coal last year, although output ended the year with a decline amid the latest surge in Covid infections. Total Chinese coal output for the year reached 4.496 billion tons, which was a 9-percent increase compared to 2021, according to official statistics data.    

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 22:30

  • California Drought Eases As Reservoir Levels Rise And Snowpack Booms
    California Drought Eases As Reservoir Levels Rise And Snowpack Booms

    California has experienced water shortages in recent years due to a combination of factors, including drought and increased demand. A parade of storms has eased a historic water crisis, replenishing reservoirs and increasing snowpack. 

    The latest data from the official website of the State of California shows 97% of major reservoir levels are at normal levels for this time of year. This is great news following last summer when reservoir levels were dangerously low. 

    Here’s a map of the major reservoirs. Most are at average levels, except for a few. 

    Nearly a month of storms has also boosted the state’s vital snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. State data shows statewide snowpack levels are 126% above average levels for this time of year. We recently pointed out snowpack levels were at their highest in four decades. 

    Only a small portion of California remained in extreme drought. The heavy rains and snow have eased drought conditions. 

    The storms were part of a moisture conveyor belt over the Pacific Ocean called atmospheric rivers. This resulted in one of the wettest California winters on record. 

    Much of California’s water comes from reservoirs and snowpacks. The deluge of storms has prevented the price of water trading on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index from topping new highs. The contract currently trades at $1,020 an acre-foot, about 20% lower from the top of $1,282 recorded in September of last year. 

    The rain and snow have been “very exciting,” Andrew Schwartz, lead scientist at the University of California, Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab, told CNN, though he remained “cautiously optimistic” for this summer. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 22:00

  • Inflation Assets Are Leading The Recovery. That's Not Normal
    Inflation Assets Are Leading The Recovery. That’s Not Normal

    By Marcel Kasumovich, Head of Research for One River Asset Management

    It’s normal, sort of. Digital asset markets are following a commodity boom, bust, recovery cycle. Investors are focused on the bust. The decline in inflation, bond yields, and the US dollar makes the downturn shallower. And inflation assets are leading the recovery. That’s not normal. 

    Inflation Assets Leading the Not-Normal

    “If you want two cups of coffee, save money and order both at the same time,” a student at the University of Freiburg famously quipped during Germany’s hyperinflation. That’s the inflation we worry about – pernicious, invisible tax. The recent surge in inflation is an inconvenience by historical standards. Periods of inflation lead people to shed currency for almost any real asset – even pianos were a hedge for Germans in the 1920s. That’s not now. But it’s also not never.

    The pandemic brought a warning shot, a reminder that the saying “too much money chasing too few goods” still applies. Global inflation surged to 9% last year as bottlenecks emerged in all supply chains. Assets believed to hedge inflation performed dismally. Real assets – bitcoin, gold, lumber, land – crashed as inflation rose. Those assets didn’t “fail” in their roles. Real interest rates shot higher. And that’s the real driving force behind inflation assets.  

    The evidence is obvious in investor behavior. There was a dash for cash as inflation rose, not real assets. Last quarter, Global Fund Managers reported the highest cash holding since 2001! The inflation tax was an afterthought. All other assets were rapidly deflating in response to the surge in rates. That is not an inflationary mindset. It’s conviction that policy will kill inflation, leaving real rates higher for a stretch of time. And it’s self-reinforcing.

    Market expectations call for a cratering of inflation this year, to 2.33%. It’s also expected to stay there for a very long time, 2.19% in 2024 and an average of 2.29% in the next ten years. The consensus is centered on the idea that a recession will bring everything back to “normal.” And it is exactly how investors are positioned – long bonds, short equities, and long US dollar (Figure 1). Our own Macro Pulse confirms the consensus – it’s in recessionary territory.

    But change is afoot. Downturns don’t last long, even brutal ones. They are usually fast, severe fractures. This one is slow and shallow. Our Macro Pulse has been in recessionary territory three of the past four months; the longest recessionary signal was nine months in the Great Financial Crisis. Market stabilizers are also emerging. Declines in inflation, bond yields and the US dollar are cushioning the downturn with mortgage and business surveys bottoming.  

    Commodity markets provide the simplest connection to the cyclicality of digital assets. Doug Wilson, One River Digital PM, likens the downturn in digital infrastructure to a boom, bust, recovery cycle of energy markets. It’s a terrific benchmark. Bitcoin is a unit of energy. The boom saw Bitcoin trade miles above its marginal cost of production. That boom led to excess investment. The bust that followed is like an over-supplied commodity cycle.  

    What does the recovery look like? Let’s benchmark the boom-bust-recovery cycle through the macro lens of recessions. Figure 2 shows median oil prices in the past 4 economic cycles. The most interesting observation – oil prices aren’t anywhere close to the downturns of the past. This is the “too few goods” side of the inflation equation. A long period of commodity underinvestment means that inflation assets don’t decline to the same degree in recession.  

    It also means inflationary assets can lead in the recovery, counter to the consensus of a return to “normal.” But inflation assets are supposed to lag, not lead. It takes an extended period of strong demand to absorb excess capacity built in this expansion. Those are the assets soonest to bump up against capacity constraints and be demonstrated as short in supply. Cyclical forces are pulling down inflation, structural pressures may be less benign.

    Digital asset markets are recoupling to macro forces. Inflation assets are leading this year and digital assets are rising with that tide. The differentiation within the digital ecosystem is telling. Base layers and scaling solutions are leading – Bitcoin and Ethereum are back to pre-FTX levels, Optimism scaling protocol has risen well above pre-FTX highs. DeFi protocols are lagging, most notably MakerDAO, as it wrestles with its strategic future pathway.

    Market leadership is in the boring basics. We should pay attention. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Lightning, Optimism – base layers with scaling solutions for usable applications. We know that digital asset valuations are all about network effects. But investing in railways is pointless with no demand to ride them. Tokenization has been wildly successful in bridging traditional and digital worlds. That’s one trajectory of turning the boring into beautiful.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 21:30

  • "This Is The First Domino": Amazon Letting An Office Lease In Seattle Expire For Only The Second Time Ever
    “This Is The First Domino”: Amazon Letting An Office Lease In Seattle Expire For Only The Second Time Ever

    The major exodus by U.S. corporations out of U.S. cities continues. 

    The latest example is now Amazon, who is – for only the second time in Seattle – allowing one of its major office leases to expire, according to the Seattle Times. The e-commerce giant is set to move workers out of its offices in Port 99 on Eight Avenue, the report says.

    The lease expires in April, according to a company spokesperson. Amazon will move “about 2,000” of its employees to office space across from its Puget Sound headquarters, the report noted.

    Amazon had just announced layoffs that would affect 18,000 employees companywide and, specifically, 2,300 employees near Puget Sound.

    But the company says that the lease expiration decision had little to do with the layoffs and more to do with “the ongoing shift to remote and hybrid work after the COVID-19 pandemic”. As the Seattle Times notes, the number of office workers in downtown Seattle is down 42% from prior to the pandemic. 

    This marks only the second time Amazon has taken such action. Back in 2020, the company dropped its lease at 2201 Westlake, where it made up about half of the building’s 318,000 square feet of office space, the report said. They had to relocate 1,000 employees as a result. 

    And it isn’t just Amazon that is rethinking its use of office space in Seattle. Facebook is also planning on subleasing two locations and Microsoft reportedly will not renew its lease at the 26-story City Center Plaza in Bellevue when it expires in Summer of 2024. 

    John Schoettler, vice president of Global Real Estate and Facilities at Amazon, said: “Our offices are long-term investments, and we want to make sure that we design them in a way that meets our employees’ needs in the future.”

    “This is the first domino,” a local Seattle area real estate insider told the Times.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 21:00

  • Hedge Fund CIO: "Median Oil Prices Are $40 At The End Of A Recession: It’s Double That Now With The Global Economy Bottoming"
    Hedge Fund CIO: “Median Oil Prices Are $40 At The End Of A Recession: It’s Double That Now With The Global Economy Bottoming”

    By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    New Abnormal

    “After recession, everything will return to normal – that’s how investors are positioned,” said Marcel Kasumovich, the two of us discussing this increasingly unique time in market history. “The fastest Fed tightening in four decades is supposed to bring a deep recession and a lot of broken glass in global markets. Things are playing out differently. Global housing markets cracked. But job markets are holding up. Asset deflation was rampant during the rapid Fed tightening. But emerging markets didn’t crack; UK pensions did and were saved. Regions like Turkey and India led USD equity gains. It isn’t normal.”

    “On QT, we’ve communicated really clearly to the markets about what we’re going to do there,” said Powell. “Markets seem to be okay with it. We’re phasing in.” That was the guidance on June 15, 2022. Only, liquidity conditions are beating to a different drum. Excess reserves in the banking system were $3.189trn at the time of the guidance, having tightened more than $1trn in six months. Liquidity metrics have been stable since then despite QT. Market-based factors are dominating liquidity, not QT. This wasn’t the case in the past.

    “It’s not just US policy,” continued Marcel. “December’s surprise tightening from the Bank of Japan led to an unprecedent expansion of its balance sheet to guard against unwanted increases in bond yields. “This is definitely not a step toward an exit,” Kuroda declared to a market that rushed to the exit signs. The yen surged and held its gains (despite record central bank bond buying). The BOJ now holds more than 50% of government coupon bonds. Maturing bonds more than double this year. No Governor can exit this QE labyrinth.”

    “Under tremendous international pressure, the US dollar depreciated 53% against the Japanese yen from 1985-1987, leading to low yen rates and an unparalleled property bubble,” said Marcel. “Japan was 11% of world GDP and rising in 1985. It is 4% now and falling. China resisted rapid currency strength having studied these pitfalls. Yet, they mirror Japan in one key area – demographics. China’s population fell by 850K last year, the first since 1960; the working-age population is projected to shrink 216 million through 2050 – unprecedented.”

    “Cyclical gyrations will confound structural megatrends,” said Marcel. “A pragmatist emerged after China’s Party Congress with President Xi ending COVID lockdowns. Global trade will be instantly impacted. Just bringing China oil demand to pre-COVID trends would take 2% of world production at a time when supplies are tight – commercial inventories are at historic lows.” In the past four cycles, the median oil price was $40 at the end of recession. It’s double that now when the global economy is bottoming. “The past isn’t the present.”

    “This comes at a time when markets are convinced US inflation is dead,” said Marcel. “Markets are pricing inflation of 2.3% this year, and close to 2% for the next decade – just like normal. The Fed won. But is it a battle or a war? Oil prices and inflation assets are never leading indicators in market recoveries – they are now. The US dollar has stayed strong-for-long in recession – it’s been trending lower for four months.” The pandemic exposed weak links in the global economy – strained supply chains. Inflation is retreating. “Inflation assets indicate it’s a war.”

    “Generational imbalances are pressing, the root of lasting geopolitical and social conflict,” said Marcel. “Rich countries are accustomed to external conflict, but the economic war is building from within. Since 1990, a period of extraordinary prosperity, US student debt for households under the age of 35 has increased nearly 10-times. The older generation promised an extrapolation of good times; they charged the younger ones a handsome peacetime premium for that privilege. It’s an invisible generational default.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 20:30

  • WSJ Shreds Vaccine Makers, Biden Admin Over "Deceptive" Booster Campaign
    WSJ Shreds Vaccine Makers, Biden Admin Over “Deceptive” Booster Campaign

    Wall Street Journal editorial board member Allysia Finley has taken a flamethrower to vaccine makers over their “deceptive” campaign for bivalent Covid boosters, and slams several federal agencies for taking “the unprecedented step of ordering vaccine makers to produce them and recommending them without data supporting their safety or efficacy.“

    You might have heard a radio advertisement warning that if you’ve had Covid, you could get it again and experience even worse symptoms. The message, sponsored by the Health and Human Services Department, claims that updated bivalent vaccines will improve your protection.

    This is deceptive advertising. But the public-health establishment’s praise for the bivalent shots shouldn’t come as a surprise. -WSJ

    The narrative behind the campaign was simple; mRNA Covid shots could simply be ‘tweaked’ to to target new variants – in this case, the jabs were claimed to confer protection against BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants, along with the original Wuhan strain.

    To call this wishful thinking would be extremely generous.

    As Finley writes, three scientific problems have arisen.

    1. The virus is mutating much faster than vaccines can be updated.
    2. Vaccines have ‘hard wired’ our immune systems to respond to the original Wuhan strain, “so we churn out fewer antibodies that neutralize variants targeted by updated vaccines.”
    3. Antibody protection wanes after just a few months.

    Finley has brought receipts too…

    Two studies in the New England Journal of Medicine this month showed that bivalent boosters increase neutralizing antibodies against the BA.4 and BA.5 variants, but not significantly more than the original boosters. In one study, antibody levels after the bivalent boosters were 11 times as high against the Wuhan variant as BA.5.

    The authors posit that immune imprinting “may pose a greater challenge than is currently appreciated for inducing robust immunity against SARS-CoV-2 variants.” This isn’t unique to Covid or mRNA vaccines, though boosters may amplify the effect. Our first exposure as children to the flu—whether by infection or vaccination—affects our future response to different strains. -WSJ

    Here’s what happened

    For those who took (or were forced to take) the original vaccine, our memory B-cells were trained to produce antibodies against the original Wuhan strain. And as a New England Journal of Medicine article notes, people who have taken said original vaccine were “primed” to respond to the Wuhan strain, and ‘mounted an inferior antibody response to other variants.’

    The studies directly contradict marketing information from Pfizer and Moderna, which asserted that the bivalent boosters produced a response to the new strains (BA.4 and BA.5) that’s 4-6x that of the original boosters – which the WSJ says is “misleading.”

    For starters, neither Pfizer or Moderna conducted a randomized trial.

    They tested the original boosters last winter, long before the BA.5 surge and 4½ to months after trial participants had received their third shots. The bivalents, by contrast, were tested after BA.5 began to surge, 9½ to 11 months after recipients had received their third shots. -WSJ

    Here’s the moneyshot: “The vaccine makers designed their studies to get the results they wanted. Public-health authorities didn’t raise an eyebrow, but why would they? They have a vested interest in promoting the bivalents.”

    In June, the FDA ordered vaccine makers to update the boosters against BA.4 and BA.5, and rushed the companies to push them out before clinical data was available. Meanwhile, Biden’s CDC recommended the bivalents for all adults without evidence that they were effective or necessary.

    Finley further notes that vaccine makers could have performed small, randomized trials last summer and early fall on the bivalents – with results available by the end of September. But the Biden administration didn’t want to wait (and now we know why).

    The CDC published a study in November that estimated the bivalents were only 22% to 43% effective against infection during the BA.5 wave—their peak efficacy. As antibodies waned and new variants took over later in the fall, their protection against infection probably dropped to zero.

    Another CDC study, in December, reported that seniors who received bivalents were 84% less likely to be hospitalized than the unvaccinated, and 73% less likely than those who had received two or more doses of the original vaccine. But neither study controlled for important confounding factors—for one, that the small minority who got bivalents were probably also more likely than those who hadn’t to follow other Covid precautions or seek out treatments such as Paxlovid. -WSJ

    We’re amazed the Journal even put this out there… Kudos to them.

    Fortunately for big pharma and the Biden administration, information overload is the new Soma, and Rachel Maddow et al. have everything under control.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 20:00

  • "Such Demographic Decline Has Never Happened Across Major Global Economies"
    “Such Demographic Decline Has Never Happened Across Major Global Economies”

    By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    “How long to dispose of a body before it smells,” Brian Walshe asked Google. “What is the rate of decomposition of a body found in a plastic bag compared to on a surface in the woods,” was another query that law enforcement retrieved from some faceless server, a virtual witness to his horrific crime.

    He did not ask, but should have, “Are Google queries retrievable by the FBI.” Instead, he typed 20 questions you definitely should not Google if you want to get away with murder [see here].

    On China’s Baidu, queries for baby strollers fell 17% last year and are -41% since 2018. Searches for baby bottles are down by one-third since 2018. But queries for elderly care homes surged 800% last year, faceless servers bearing witness to China’s profound demographic challenge.

    China’s population surged from 540mm in 1949 to 969mm in 1980 when the One Child policy was introduced. And still, the population climbed inexorably to over 1.41bln in 2021. But in 2022, deaths exceeded births by 850k. UN demographers see China’s population contracting by 100mm by 2050.

    You could imagine Xi secretly typing, “What is the rate of decline of a nation that shrinks and ages before becoming wealthy.”

    Japan hit “peak people” in 2011 at 127.4mm. Demographers see it shrinking to 97mm by 2050. Russia is in utter demographic collapse. And you could imagine Putin secretly typing, “How long can a nation remain intact without enough young men to fight.”

    Europe is on the ageing, shrinking path too, but unlike China, Russia and Japan, immigration still tempers its demographic decline. It’s easy to imagine countless European leaders typing, “How to assimilate the waves of refugees needed to sustain the economy while retaining your culture.”

    Such demographic decline has never happened across the major global economies. How this impacts geopolitics, economies, and markets remains uncertain.

    There is no back-test for this. The US continues to be the outlier, growing, albeit slowly. And let’s hope Biden is typing, “How to reverse the opioid/fentanyl/diabetes public health catastrophe that has lowered US life expectancy.”

    And in India, Google searches for baby bottles jumped 22% last year, while queries for cribs surged 500%.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 19:30

  • Turkey Outraged After Sweden Allowed Quran Burning In Front Of Stockholm Embassy
    Turkey Outraged After Sweden Allowed Quran Burning In Front Of Stockholm Embassy

    It increasingly looks like Sweden won’t be admitted to NATO anytime soon, now that relations with Turkey have hit a fresh low point after months of Turkish pressure on Stockholm to crack down on Kurdish groups and anti-Erdogan protests.

    On Saturday anti-Turkey demonstrations in the Swedish capital included an incident where a copy of the Quran was burned in front of the Turkish embassy. The Quran-burning has enraged Turkish officials, especially coming off of another protest less than two weeks ago wherein a Kurdish group hanged an effigy of President Erdogan and tweeted out images.

    Far right activist Rasmus Paludan just before he burned the Quran, via Reuters

    Turkey has denounced the newest protest as “vile” and went so far as to cancel a scheduled visit by Sweden’s defense minister to Ankara. The meeting was supposed to continue to the dialogue over what Sweden needs to do to overcome Turkey’s objections regarding NATO accession.

    “We condemn in the strongest possible terms the vile attack on our holy book,” a Turkish Foreign Ministry statement said.

    According to a description of the Quran burning incident in Al Jazeera:

    The Quran burning was carried out by Rasmus Paludan, leader of Danish far-right political party Hard Line. In April last year, Paludan’s announcement of a Quran burning “tour” during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan sparked riots across Sweden.

    Surrounded by police, Paludan set fire to the holy book with a lighter following a long diatribe of almost an hour, in which he attacked Islam and immigration in Sweden. About 100 people gathered nearby for a peaceful counterdemonstration.

    “If you don’t think there should be freedom of expression, you have to live somewhere else,” he said.

    Turkey has requested that Swedish authorities take legal action against such demonstrations, particularly involving Kurds, but Sweden has repeatedly cited its robust free speech laws. Further, Swedish officials have said it cannot give Turkey what it wants without changing laws regarding freedom of assembly and protest.

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    Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström, did however condemn the Quran-burning as “appalling” but stopped short of announcing any kind of legal action. “Islamophobic provocations are appalling. Sweden has a far-reaching freedom of expression, but it does not imply that the Swedish Government, or myself, support the opinions expressed,” he said.

    Earlier this month Erdogan’s office said, “We urge the Swedish authorities to take necessary steps against terrorist groups without further delay.” Turkey often labels dissenting Kurdish groups as “terrorists”. Over the past several months Turkey has sought to pressure Sweden into extraditing Kurdish activists which Ankara deems as part of outlawed groups.

    This new Quran burning protest incident has reportedly set off large-scale protests against Sweden inside Turkey, as well as denunciations by a handful other Muslim-majority countries.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 19:00

  • The Trillion-Dollar Coin Idea Is Just Another Way To Rip Us Off
    The Trillion-Dollar Coin Idea Is Just Another Way To Rip Us Off

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    Here we go again.

    Every few years in Congress there is a purely political battle over the debt ceiling. We’re supposed to be horrified and worried that the US might default on some of its debt. Some commentators will insist the US has never defaulted, and that default be a disaster.

    (That’s wrong, by the way. The US has defaulted before.) 

    But these debt ceiling debates always end the same way. Congress ends up increasing the debt ceiling and the US’s national debt continues to spiral upward. 

    During all the theatrics over the debt ceiling, however, many strange ideas are put forward as a supposed means to avoiding a shutdown.

    One of these is the “trillion-dollar coin” idea. The general premise is that the government can do an end run around the debt ceiling altogether if it can find a way to raise revenue without borrowing. Thus, the scheme goes more or less like this, as explained by Yale law professor Jack Balkin back in 2011: 

    Are there other ways for the president to raise money besides borrowing?

    Sovereign governments such as the United States can print new money. However, there’s a statutory limit to the amount of paper currency that can be in circulation at any one time.

    Ironically, there’s no similar limit on the amount of coinage. A little-known statute gives the secretary of the Treasury the authority to issue platinum coins in any denomination. So some commentators have suggested that the Treasury create two $1 trillion coins, deposit them in its account in the Federal Reserve and write checks on the proceeds….

    The “jumbo coin” [strategy works] because modern central banks don’t have to print bills or float debt to create new money; they just add money to their customers’ checking accounts.

    Put another way, by minting a trillion-dollar coin, Congress could simply deposit the coin at its bank account at the Federal Reserve and then start spending money from the account which now has a trillion-dollar (or even larger) credit. 

    [ZH: Here we take a slight side-bar to hear the thoughts of Curvature Securities’ Scott E.D. Skyrm, one of the world’s most-respected repo market participants and experts on the practical real-world folly of the Trillion Dollar Coin:

    Every time a debt ceiling debate runs through the market there’s always talk about the “Trillion Dollar Coin”. The idea is that to avoid hitting the debt ceiling, the Treasury could issue “currency” instead of “debt” and thus avoid the debt limit.

    How realistic is this? Can it be done?  Let’s take a look:

    Here are the mechanics:

    • The US Treasury mints a coin that says “$1 trillion” and sells it into the market.

    • The Treasury’ receives $1 trillion in cash in the TGA account so they have another $1 trillion to spend to fund the government.

    That leaves us with the first problem: Who is going to buy it?

    Maybe a giant global sovereign wealth fund. Maybe a large bank (JP Morgan?) can gather the funds to buy it.

    Let’s say they do.

    That brings us to the second problem. Who wants to own an illiquid coin that pays no interest when they could buy liquid US Treasury securities that pay interest?

    In fact, any sophisticated investor who could put the funds together would need a return on their cash. The coin would therefore be priced to trade like a discount security.

    Call it a perpetual principal STRIP.

    What’s the price of a 50 year principal STRIP? Probably about 15 cents on the dollar.

    Realistically, someone would only pay about $150 billion for the $1 trillion coin. At best!

    But let’s say the Treasury finds an “investor” to buy the coin.

    Let’s say a few phone calls are made from the Treasury to the Fed and voila, the Fed initiates a new QE program to buy the coin.

    Here’s the next problem.

    The Fed cannot legally buy direct form the Treasury.

    An intermediary like the sovereign wealth fund or a bank is needed to broker the transaction. After all of that let’s say the Fed eventually buys the $1 trillion coin and puts it in the SOMA portfolio. Hopefully they didn’t pay full price!

    Now the Fed needs to explain to Congress why they have a non-performing asset invested in the taxpayers investment portfolio.

    Maybe the idea of the trillion dollar coin is not meant to be serious. Maybe I’m overthinking because clearly, it’s not possible.]

    But here’s the rub: in no version of this scheme is the trillion-dollar coin actually made with a trillion-dollars-worth of platinum. Were that the case, the “coin” would be huge and weigh millions of pounds. Rather, the coin we’re talking about in this scheme would just have a face value of $1 trillion. It would be a commemorative or numismatic coin. The coin would be nothing more than a kind of legal fiction that’s used to credit the Treasury with a trillion dollars without going deeper into debt. 

    So, there’s really no reason for there to be any platinum in the coin at all, except for the legal (and perhaps political) advantages of calling it a platinum coin. From an economic standpoint, the coin might as well be a paperclip, as explained by Robert Murphy: 

    The Federal Reserve has the power to buy whatever assets it wants at whatever price it wants. In principle, [the Treasury Secretary] could sell a paperclip to the Fed for $2 trillion. The Fed would simply write a check made out to the Treasury, drawn on the Fed itself.

    When the Treasury deposited this check with its own bank — which just so happens to be the Fed — then its own “checking account” balance would go up by $2 trillion. This money wouldn’t come from anywhere in the sense that some other account would need to be debited $2 trillion. On the contrary, the system’s total reserves (and what is called the “monetary base”) would have swelled by $2 trillion. The Treasury would be free to start paying bills by writing checks on the $2 trillion in its account.

    The only kink in the plan would be the state of the Fed’s balance sheet. Initially it could value the paperclip at $2 trillion — what the Fed paid for it — and list the paperclip among its other assets such as Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

    It seems absurd, but the difference between the paperclip idea and the trillion-dollar coin scheme is one merely of degree. Both are ways of depositing something of relatively small value into a bank account and then withdrawing sums of money far exceeding the value of what was deposited.

    Two Ways of Taxing the Public

    But what is the difference between the usual raise-the-debt-ceiling option and the paperclip/coin idea? Perhaps the most meaningful difference between them is the way in which the taxpayers are exploited to pay for more government spending. Were the government to simply go more deeply into debt, the government would sell bonds and get cash in return. The bonds would be added to the national debt, formally increasing both the future and present obligations of the taxpayers. Taxpayers would be on the hook for paying off the bonds at the maturity date at some point in the future, but would also be on the hook in the near term for paying interest on the new debt. 

    In the case of the trillion-dollar coin, however, the taxpayer is exploited via the inflation tax. The coin scheme essentially forces the Federal Reverse to credit the Treasury with money and resources that doesn’t exist. The scheme ends, as Murphy notes above, by expanding the money supply—i.e., “printing” money. 

    The result of this inflating the money supply is either rising asset prices or rising consumer prices, or both. For example, we’re already living with 40-year highs in price inflation which is the consequence of the massive amounts of monetary inflation that occurred since 2008—and especially since 2020. 

    Admittedly, the trillion-dollar coin idea is good for the government itself. It provides the regime with yet another option for quickly accessing and spending even more money. But for taxpayers, there’s nothing beneficial or special about the coin scheme. It’s just a different way of ripping us off. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 18:30

  • Two Democrats Call For Investigation Into Biden Classified Documents Case
    Two Democrats Call For Investigation Into Biden Classified Documents Case

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

    At least two Democratic senators have called for a full investigation into President Joe Biden’s handling of classified materials after several batches of documents were found at an office and his home in Delaware.

    “The reports about President Biden’s mishandling of classified documents are extremely irresponsible and disturbing,” Manchin (D-W. Va.) told Fox News on Jan. 20.

    “These allegations should be investigated fully.”

    The development “raises serious questions, and the appointment of an unbiased special prosecutor to investigate the matter is the right step,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told Fox.

    Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who recently confirmed she wouldn’t be running for re-election in 2024, told NBC News last week that the reports of handling classified documents is a bad look for the White House.

    “Well, it’s certainly embarrassing. Right?” Stabenow stated.

    “I mean, it’s embarrassing that you would find a small number of documents, certainly not on purpose. They don’t think it’s the right thing and they’ve been moving to correct it, working with the Department of Justice, working with everyone involved, with the [National] Archives, and so from my perspective, you know, it’s one of those moments that obviously they wish hadn’t happened.”

    Their comments came just hours before Biden’s lawyer confirmed the Department of Justice (DOJ) searched his home, while an FBI spokesperson confirmed the search to Fox News on Saturday. The search of his Delaware residence reportedly lasted hours, the FBI said.

    “DOJ took possession of materials it deemed within the scope of its inquiry, including six items consisting of documents with classification markings and surrounding materials, some of which were from the President’s service in the Senate and some of which were from his tenure as Vice President,” Bob Bauer, his attorney, said.

    “DOJ also took for further review personally handwritten notes from the vice-presidential years.”

    Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.) speaks to reporters in the Hart Senate Office building in Washington, on Aug. 1, 2022. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    Assistant U.S. Attorney Joseph Fitzpatrick confirmed Saturday that the FBI had executed “a planned, consensual search” of the president’s residence in Wilmington. The president and first lady Jill Biden were not at the home when it was searched. They were spending the weekend at their home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.

    Speaking to reporters during a trip to California on Thursday, Biden said he was “fully cooperating and looking forward to getting this resolved quickly.”

    “We found a handful of documents were filed in the wrong place,” Biden said.

    “We immediately turned them over to the Archives and the Justice Department.”

    The Biden investigation has also complicated the Justice Department’s probe into Trump’s retention of classified documents and official records after he left office. The Justice Department says former President Donald Trump took hundreds of records marked classified with him upon leaving the White House in early 2021, and that it had to obtain a search warrant to retrieve them.

    After the initial discovery of Biden’s documents, Trump has asserted that the DOJ is treating the president differently.

    “When is the FBI going to raid the many homes of Joe Biden, perhaps even the White House?” Trump asked in a social media post earlier in January.

    Attorney General Merrick Garland has appointed former Maryland U.S. Attorney Robert Hur as a special counsel to investigate any potential wrongdoing surrounding the Biden documents. Hur is set to take over from the Trump-appointed Illinois U.S. Attorney John Lausch in overseeing the probe.

    “Since the beginning, the President has been committed to handling this responsibly because he takes this seriously,” White House lawyer Richard Sauber said Saturday. “The President’s lawyers and White House Counsel’s Office will continue to cooperate with DOJ and the Special Counsel to help ensure this process is conducted swiftly and efficiently.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 17:30

  • FAA Won't Divulge Data Behind Pilot Heart Arrhythmia Decision
    FAA Won’t Divulge Data Behind Pilot Heart Arrhythmia Decision

    The Federal Aviation Administration recently widened the acceptable range for heart rhythms for commercial pilots based on “new scientific evidence” which they won’t disclose, according to Just the News, which reached out to the agency for comment.

    Specifically, the agency raised the maximum “PR” interval for first-degree atrioventricular block to 300 milliseconds for pilots of all ages. For intervals longer than 300 ms, the FAA will decide on pilot fitness on a case-by-case basis. Previously, the maximum PR interval was 210 milliseconds, though only for pilots under the age of 51.

    If you’re not up to speed watch below:

    Did we mention that airlines have been lobbying Congress to let just one pilot fly a commercial aircraft?

    As Just the News reports,

    FAA spokesperson Ian Gregor provided a modified version of the statement the agency released last spring after American Airlines pilot Robert Snow blamed his in-flight cardiac arrest on coerced vaccination.

    Federal Air Surgeon Susan Northrup has deemed all U.S.-authorized COVID vaccines safe for pilots, the FAA said, claiming it had “seen no evidence” of vaccine-related complications that caused “aircraft accidents or pilot incapacitations.” 

    The agency followed “standard processes based on data and science” to determine it could “safely raise the tolerance used to screen for a certain heart condition” and notified AMEs of the change.

    Except, “Gregor didn’t respond to queries for the specific evidence.“

    According to the Associated Press, “the FAA explained that this change was made in response to new scientific evidence about the condition from its cardiology consultants, not adverse reactions to COVID-19 vaccines,” yet AP can’t say what prompted the change.

    “When making changes to medical requirements and guidance, the FAA follows standard processes based on data and science,” the agency told AP in an emailed statement. “Our cardiology consultants provided information that anything under 300ms requires no additional testing and is not a risk for sudden or subtle incapacitation.”

    According to Joshua Yoder, who heads US Freedom Flyers – a group which collects and analyzes adverse event reports from pilots, said that he’s been contacted by wealthy businessmen to find unvaccinated pilots.

    “I’ve spoken to 30 plus individuals myself and have also heard from an aircraft broker recently who told me he’s receiving similar requests,” Yoder told Just the News.

    According to cardiologist Thomas Levy, the FAA’s rule change is “arguably a shocking one, as many pilots are in the age range when heart attacks occur without any early symptoms but with a normal ECG, the ECG being the only mandatory heart-related test,” adding “A fatal heart attack from very advanced coronary artery disease could occur 10 minutes after the normal ECG was recorded.”

    Read more here…

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 17:00

  • Climate Alarmists Panic That Twitter Under Musk Allows More Dissenting Views On Global Warming
    Climate Alarmists Panic That Twitter Under Musk Allows More Dissenting Views On Global Warming

    Authored by Bryan Jung via The Epoch Times,

    An organization that says it is a coalition of “climate and anti-disinformation organisations” says Twitter under CEO Elon Musk is allowing more dissenting views on climate change.

    Climate Action Against Disinformation (CAAD), released a Jan. 19 study (pdf), accusing Musk of allowing misinformation about the climate crisis to spread on the social media platform.

    The study accused Twitter of boosting the hashtag “#ClimateScam” to users when searching the word “climate,” as its top search result.

    The hashtag has suddenly spiked on Twitter search results since July 2022, with its appearance increasing ever since, according to CAAD.

    The report said that “in 2022, denialist content made a stark comeback on Twitter in particular.”

    Twitter Search

    CAAD alleged that at least 91,000 Twitter users reported the #ClimateScam hashtag more than 362,000 times by December.

    “The source of its virality is entirely unclear, and re-emphasises the need for transparency on how and why platforms surface content to users,” said the study’s authors.

    They said that term appeared to be trending despite “data that shows more activity and engagement on other hashtags such as #ClimateCrisis and #ClimateEmergency.”

    The research team claimed that the rise of the term in search results could not be explained by user personalization, the volume of content, or popularity.

    “A basic search for ‘climate’ on Facebook did not autofill with overtly sceptic or denialist terms; searching explicitly for #ClimateScam only showed 1.5k users mentioning the term, versus 72k for #ClimateEmergency and 160k for #ClimateCrisis.”

    CAAD complained that the source of the #ClimateScam hashtag was unclear and that there was a need for transparency on how the search result came up.

    “Equally, TikTok returned no search results for #ClimateScam, but instead suggested the phrase ‘may be associated with behaviour or content that violates our guidelines.’”

    Interest Groups

    The authors said that not enough of the content was labeled as misinformation by Twitter’s new management and claimed that it could not find a comparable trend or uptick in “#ClimateScam” on other platforms.

    CAAD is partially funded by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD), a think tank, which is heavily funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

    The ISD said it is working with social media platforms to explore radicalization online, to minimize the impact of extremist recruitment by groups in Europe and North America.

    Since buying Twitter in October, Elon Musk has reduced the social media team’s staff by 50 percent and cut down its content moderation team to protect freedom of expression.

    Musk has been a critic of Twitter’s past relationship with federal authorities and the intelligence services, and has released several batches of the so-called “Twitter Files” since late last year.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 16:30

  • Peru Closes Famed Machu Picchu Ruins, Tourists Trapped, As Anti-Govt Unrest Spreads
    Peru Closes Famed Machu Picchu Ruins, Tourists Trapped, As Anti-Govt Unrest Spreads

    Protests in Peru are growing more violent and engulfing much of the country beyond the region of the south, where they first started and were concentrated last month following the impeachment and imprisonment of then-President Pedro Castillo.

    Castillo, still detained on charges of seeking to lead a rebellion after trying to dissolve Congress, was replaced by now President Boluarte, who had served as vice president until being sworn in under emergency conditions on Dec.7.

    Via Reuters: A historic building on fire during the ‘Take over Lima’ march.

    Demonstrators are seeking Boluarte’s ouster and for new elections to be held immediately. Things have escalated over the weekend with the closure of tourist sites, most notably the famed ancient ruins of Machu Picchu.

    The Culture Ministry said the closure of the site was necessary in order “to protect the safety of tourists and the population in general” as more and more protesters flood the area from the countryside.

    Government officials said that 417 visitors were stuck at Machu Picchu amid riots, with 300 of them being foreigners. Fox News described that they had to be evacuated after the closest city which serves as a base for visitors touring the site was plunged into an emergency situation amid protester clashes with police:

    The city of Cusco, the former capital of the Incan empire and an about a 70-mile train ride from the town of Machu Picchu has been the site of some of the most intense clashes since the South American nation first became engulfed in unrest after then-President Pedro Castillo, Peru’s first leader with a rural Andean background was impeached and imprisoned for trying to dissolve Congress last month. 

    Train service to and from the town of Machu Picchu, at the base of the hill where the ancient Inca citadel with the same name sits, had been closed since Thursday due to damage to the tracks leading back to Cusco. Hundreds of tourists reportedly lined up to sign a petition to be evacuated in a “humanitarian train.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Six weeks of unrest and massive protest clashes with police have resulted in 60 dead, and some 600 injured.

    Below is the scene from days ago, which has been something seen daily for weeks:

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    Intervention by security forces continued Saturday with a police raid on San Marcos University in Lima. It ranks as the oldest university in the Americas.

    The Guardian described the chaotic scene as follows: 

    Scores of police raided a Lima university on Saturday, smashing down the gates with an armored vehicle, firing teargas and detaining more than 200 people who had come to the Peruvian capital to take part in anti-government protests.

    Images showed dozens of people lying face down on the ground at San Marcos University after the surprise police operation. Students said they were pushed, kicked and hit with truncheons as they were forced out of their dormitories.

    Police could be seen ramming the gate to the historic university with a tank…

    Workers across various sectors have initiated nationwide strikes, leading in many places public transport and other services to come to a standstill. 

    Protesters have also charged that United States is seeking to prop up a ‘right-wing coup regime’ as opposed to Peru’s first leader with a rural Andean background, Castillo.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 16:00

  • Election Integrity Watchdog Finds California Lost 10.9 Million Mail-In Ballots in 2022 Midterms
    Election Integrity Watchdog Finds California Lost 10.9 Million Mail-In Ballots in 2022 Midterms

    Authored by Rita Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    An election integrity group said 10.9 million out of a total 22.1 million ballots that had been mailed out to registered voters during the 2022 midterm elections went “unaccounted for,” according to a Jan. 18 report.

    “Mail voting practices have an insurmountable information gap,” the Public Interest Legal Foundation (PILF) said on Monday. “The public cannot know how many ballots were disregarded, delivered to wrong mailboxes, or even withheld from the proper recipient by someone at the same address.”

    People count California recall ballot votes at a Los Angeles Registrar site at the Los Angeles Fair Grounds in Pomona, Calif., on Aug. 31, 2021. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    The watchdog released the two-page report (pdf) detailing what it called “the failures” of California’s first mass-mail balloting election following the passage of Assembly Bill 37 (AB 37), which requires that ballots automatically be mailed to all active registered voters statewide. The bill, signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom in September 2021, makes vote-by-mail ballots, a practice implemented in the 2020 general election in conjunction with the COVID-19 pandemic, permanent for all elections.

    California has more registered voters than any other state. Yet its vote-by-mail policies—among the nation’s most expansive—have resulted in large numbers of ballots “disappearing at poll closing time,” PILF’s data show.

    “After accounting for polling place votes and rejected ballots in November 2022, there were more than 10 million ballots left outstanding, meaning election officials do not know what happened to them,” reads the Wednesday report.

    “It is fair to assume that the bulk of these were ignored or ultimately thrown out by the intended recipients. But, under mass-mail elections, we can only assume what happened,” it continued.

    Besides the almost half unaccounted-for mail ballots, data show that 9.8 million were accepted, over 120,000 were rejected, and 1.4 million were counted from in-person voting centers.

    The Golden State, which has been a Democratic stronghold for over two decades, mailed out more than 22.1 million ballots to its registered voters—nearly 47 percent Democrats and 24 percent Republicans—during the 2022 elections. A GOP victory in California on Nov. 16 granted the party slim control of the U.S. House.

    Mail-In Ballot Rejects

    PILF, after finding that election officials in California had rejected 226,250 mail-in ballots during the 2022 primary and general elections, argued that the switch to mail balloting has taken away voters’ rights.

    According to the report, the state would reject mail ballots primarily for nine reasons, including mismatched or missing signatures, and double voting when a registrant casts a vote both in-person and by-mail, which took place 813 times in the past midterms.

    The most common reason, which researchers said is “endemic to mail voting,” turned out to be late-arriving ballots—taking up 48 percent of all rejects during the 2022 elections, finding show.

    Every registered voter in California should receive a ballot in the mail a month prior to Election Day. All ballots returned by mail must be postmarked by Nov. 8 to be counted, and received within seven days by county election officials, who would then verify the signatures on the return envelopes and process ballots through their vote tallying system.

    “In the November contests, more than 57,000 ballots arrived after November 15, setting them up for rejection,” PILF stated.

    “The official datasets do not differentiate between ballots postmarked too late or delivered too late. The U.S. Postal Service also touts its 2022 performance by claiming that 99 percent of mail ballots were delivered nationally within 3 days to officials for counting once in their custody,” the repost reads, noting that the Post Office sets the success rate at 94 percent for timely delivery of political mail.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 15:30

  • Nancy Pelosi Had Literal Exorcism Performed On House After Husband's Attack
    Nancy Pelosi Had Literal Exorcism Performed On House After Husband’s Attack

    Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) called in a priest to perform an exorcism at the San Francisco home where her husband, Paul Pelosi, was attacked by 42-year-old David DePape on November 4th, according to Pelosi’s daughter, Alexandra.

    “I think that weighed really heavy on her soul. I think she felt really guilty. I think that really broke her. Over Thanksgiving, she had priests coming, trying to have an exorcism of the house and having prayer services,” she told the NY Times.

    While the official details surrounding the incident have changed several times, the last update came in a now-retracted November report by veteran NBC News correspondent Miguel Almaguer (who’s been benched since said report). According to Almaguer, Paul Pelosi opened the door to their San Francisco home last month when police arrived. However, he did not try to escape or alert police to an emergency, and he instead walked to the police and back toward the alleged attacker, David DePape.

    “After a ‘knock and announce,’ the front door was opened by Mr. Pelosi. The 82-year-old did not immediately declare an emergency or tried to leave his home but instead began walking several feet back into the foyer toward the assailant and away from police,” Almaguer said in the now-deleted Nov. 4 video report. Almaguer cited unnamed sources for the claims.

    Nancy Pelosi, meanwhile, told the Times that having her home turn into a “crime scene” was unimaginable, Just the News reports.

    “He’s a strong person, athletic. This has been tough. It’s going to be about three or four more months before he’s really back to normal,” she said of her husband, while telling CNN: “I feel very sad about it because of what happened, but also more sad because the person was searching for me. … My dear husband, who is not even that political actually, paid the price.”

    Was the exorcist for the house, or for Paul?

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 15:00

  • California Mass Shooter Fatally Shoots Himself
    California Mass Shooter Fatally Shoots Himself

    Update (2130ET): As speculated earlier, late on Sunday authorities confirmed that the gunman suspected of killing 10 people late Saturday in Monterey Park, Calif., fatally shot himself Sunday after police officers tried to pull over a vehicle he was driving in the city of Torrance about 30 miles away, authorities said.

    As the WSJ reports, LA County Sheriff Robert Luna identified the suspected gunman as 72-year-old Huu Can Tran. Sheriff Luna said investigators were still working to determine a possible motive for the shooting, which also sent 10 people to area hospitals with injuries.

    “The suspect responsible for this tragedy is no longer a threat,” the sheriff said in a news conference.

    After the mass shooting in Monterey Park, an armed man entered a dance hall in nearby Alhambra, authorities said. Several people wrestled the gun from the man, who then fled in what witnesses said was a white cargo van.

    Sheriff Luna said that Torrance officers pulled over a van matching a description of the vehicle Sunday morning, and the driver proceeded to fire a single gunshot as they approached, taking his own life. Police subsequently found evidence inside the vehicle tying him to both locations, as well as a firearm, Sheriff Luna said.

    Sheriff Luna said police also recovered what he described as a magazine-fed, semiautomatic assault pistol at the Alhambra scene. He said it had an extended, large-capacity magazine attached to it.

    “Although that closes a portion of a very long day for all of us, the investigation is still ongoing,” he said. “Sheriff’s homicide detectives are working around the clock, gathering additional information and working on determining the motive behind this extremely tragic event.”

    * * *

    Update (1454ET): FOX 11 Los Angeles’ Gigi Graciette reports “possible suspect” might have been located. It appears he might have “shot himself” in a van. 

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    *   *   * 

    Update (1432ET):

    Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna tweeted several images of the suspect.

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    *   *   * 

    Update (1240ET):

    Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna described the suspect as an Asian male between the ages of 30 and 50. 

    “Our very preliminary description has been described as a male Asian,” Luna said

    “We don’t know if this is specifically a hate crime defined by law, but who walks into a dance hall and guns down 20 people? The description we have now is of a male Asian. Does that matter? I don’t know. I can tell you everything is on the table,” he continued. 

    Luna added that police are “utilizing every resource to apprehend this suspect and what we believe to be one of the county’s most heinous cases.” 

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    The suspect remains at large. 

    *   *   * 

    Ten people were killed and at least ten others injured when a gunman opened fire at a dance club following a Lunar New Year celebration in Monterey Park, California. 

    “Officers from the Monterey Park Police Department responded to a local business in the 100 block of West Garvey Avenue in the city of Monterey Park regarding shots fired call,” Capt. Andrew Meyer of the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department told reporters. He said the mass shooting happened at 2222 local time. 

    The address of the incident area Meyer provided shows a small strip mall that includes “Star Dance Studio.” 

    “When officers arrived on scene, they observed numerous individuals, patrons of the location pouring out of the location, screaming,” he said. “The officers made entry to the location and located additional victims.”

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    Meyer confirmed ten people died in the shooting. Ten others, he said, “were transported to numerous local hospitals and are listed in various conditions from stable to critical.”

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    Unconfirmed footage from within the dance club surfaced on social media after the attack. 

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    The suspect’s motive remains unclear. Meyer did not describe the suspect at the news conference. “All I can tell you is that it was a firearm that was used,” he said. A manhunt is underway. 

    The New Yorker’s Michael Lou pointed out Monterey Park has a “majority Asian American population”: 

    “Monterey Park, a city of 61,000 in the San Gabriel Valley, has a majority Asian American population. Located east of Los Angeles, the suburb is 65% Asian American, 27% Latino, and 6% white, according to census data,” he tweeted.

    The shooting happened in the vicinity of Monterey Park’s Lunar New Year celebration and attracted thousands.   

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 14:32

  • The Past Is A Great Darkness, And Filled With Eccles
    The Past Is A Great Darkness, And Filled With Eccles

    By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

    The Past is a Great Darkness, and Filled with Eccles

    In this report, I will try to find a way to highlight the sense that the Fed is not only battling difficult tointerpret economic data, but they are also battling “demons and echoes” of the past.

    • The majority of the people in leadership positions at the Fed (including the Chair) were in those leadership roles when they seemed to miss the fact that inflation wasn’t “transitory”. Not only did they miss it, but they seemed to add fuel to the fire by continuing QE (albeit at a reduced scale) into early 2022. Disciplined traders use stop losses for a reason and the knowledge that getting something wrong tends to lead to poor decisions going forward is an integral part of even the simplest day trader’s strategy. However, it is odd that it would happen at the national central bank policy level.
    • The Fed also seems to be worrying about historical precedent. The mistakes their predecessors made in their battles against inflation are haunting their thought process. Long gone are the days of the “Greenspan Put”. The Fed is fixated on Volcker and Burns and what they did right or wrong in their respective fights against inflation (however, those were very different times compared to today).

    I wasn’t hopeful that I’d find a relevant quote that captured what I was looking to portray, but then I found this gem from Margaret Atwood’s “The Handmaid’s Tale”:

    “As all historians know, the past is a great darkness, and filled with echoes”.

    That statement captures the essence of what the Fed is dealing with and encapsulates the “darkness and echoes” of past mistakes.

    Today’s report is a natural progression of last weekend’s For the Record.

    Where Would we be Without the “Demons” or “Echoes”?

    At this point, that seems obvious – we’d be ending the hiking talk.

    Much of this week’s data was skewed to the negative. The “positive” news included rising inventories. However, this is not actually a positive because inventories are already too large and consumer spending seems to be waning!

    Without these demons or echoes, the Fed would be focused on whether or not they had done too much. They would also be highlighting the dramatic improvements in the fight against inflation and talking about how ridiculous the rent component is relative to reality. The bond market wouldn’t be fighting the Fed’s rhetoric or anticipating rate cuts later this year because the Fed would be much less hawkish.

    There would be a “wait and see” element to every single Fed statement. They would be admonishing those screaming that inflation hasn’t been fully beaten down because they know that monetary policy takes time.

    Governor Brainard recently said something that the T-Report wholeheartedly agrees with! She said that there was little evidence of a 1970s style wage-price spiral. We agree because the “Rise and Fall of Inflation Factors” piece explains inflation’s rise, fall, and the coming deflation much better than “traditional” models do.

    If it wasn’t for those past demons, the people meeting in the Eccles building “might” be able to steer us towards a “softish” or “squishy” landing.

    But the “Demons” are Real

    The Fed can look to the distant past as a guide and can maybe even glean some useful information about the mistakes that were made. However, the recent “mistakes” (I can’t really think of anything else to call it) are more difficult to ignore. Speech after speech, the overall message was that inflation was transitory/under control/easy to deal with and that we still needed accommodation because liquidity concerns remained. How do you ignore all of that when trying to move forward?

    On the bright side, in the grand scheme of things, missing inflation was a minor mistake compared to asserting that the sub-prime crisis was contained (though Bernanke did go on to win a Nobel prize for fixing a mistake that he was part of creating/missing, so maybe it wasn’t really a mistake).

    Traders use stop losses for a reason. It is human nature to compound mistakes. Once a mistake has been made (such as buying a stock at $100 and watching it drop to $90) it tends to cloud your judgement. Hence, even the most rudimentary risk management systems use some form of stop loss. Effectively, this means that “you got it wrong so we are going to close the position and give you time to think about it”. Maybe that is important for the average day trader (let alone hedge fund), but not for those setting monetary policy (arguably) for the free world. Any corporation that missed one of their two targets by miles would have shaken up their decision making process, but again, maybe this isn’t applicable on the monetary policy side. The recent “big changes” seemed more related to personal trading than anything having to do with prior monetary policy decisions, but I guess that it makes sense because there is virtually never any dissent on policy making decisions.

    In any case, given all the demons that this Fed is dealing with, they will likely be fighting the inflation demons long after they’ve been exorcised. While the bond market can (and should) fight it, it will be more difficult on the risk asset side because policy errors will hurt the economy and ultimately corporate earnings and stock prices.

    Have they Already Done Too Much?

    Even if the Fed behaves as they should without the demons, have they already set too much future pain in motion? Did their demons get the better of them in meetings late last year? Should they have dialed back their tough talk and started the “wait and see” process?

    I suspect that the answer to that will be yes, but only time will tell. Hopefully the data in the coming weeks will provide some clarity so we can determine if my pessimism has been justified because I believe that the path to a deeper and longer recession has already been paved.

    A Special Shout-out to Waller

    Governor Waller said something that makes some sense, but may also prove to be bearish for risk assets. He is onboard with a 25 bps rate increase in February and seemed to indicate that he was leaning towards the “wait and see” camp. He also said that not only would he keep QT, he would encourage QT even if we needed to do rate cuts.

    I think that makes sense. What made less sense (to me) is that he tried to equate some amount of QT to some amount of rate hikes.

    I don’t think shifting Fed funds up and down behaves anything like growing or shrinking the balance sheet (Rates vs Balance Sheet). I like salt and pepper, but they don’t serve the same purpose and so far, I haven’t had a doctor tell me to monitor my pepper intake! Both salt and pepper shift the taste of food, but they are not the same at all. I think QE and QT act more directly (and in a much timelier manner) on asset prices than rate changes do.

    One Caveat is that Political Winds are Changing

    One thing to keep in mind is the report that we did a week or so ago on The Shifting “Politics” of Inflation. In that report we identified a shift in political and media talking points and predicted that it could pave the way for a series of Fed speakers to come out and downplay the inflation risk.

    Bottom Line

    The Fed might capitulate to the “wait and see” argument, but they are likely to still err on the side of being too hawkish.

    The Fed should have gone to “wait and see” mode months ago, but they are likely being haunted and already went too far.

    Even after they realize that they’ve gone too far, rate cuts are a long way off and they will continue to run with QT (which will weigh on asset prices).

    Equities.

    • I am mildly bearish because the need to respect the “soft landing” is a narrative that is gaining momentum. Fortunately, as a mild bear, I don’t think that positioning is heavily bearish and I’m in the camp that believes the market is more or less balanced.

    Credit.

    • If you are an issuer, issue bonds now. Treasury yields, especially out on the curve, are reasonably low as are spreads. The all-in combination seems attractive as I see scenarios where all in credit yields struggle regardless of the direction that the economy heads. I believe that spreads will blow out fast as Treasury yields go lower in a “recession” trade and Treasury yields will go higher faster than spreads can tighten in a “soft landing” scenario. Also, investors had “dry powder” for what was expected to be a huge new issue calendar at the start of 2023. That hasn’t materialized, so take advantage of the overall yield environment AND the dry powder.
    • For asset managers, resist the urge to put the dry powder to work!

    Maybe it’s because I’m on a flight, or I’ve been focused on the Fed, or I just hate the subject so much, but I have avoided discussing the Debt Ceiling today (or I did until now).

    Debt Ceiling 2023 is starting to look, feel, and even smell different than prior debt ceiling deadlines. I think that because it is far enough off (as a market moving issue) I don’t need to address it today, but I will have to remedy that soon, as it is pinging all over my radar since the vote for Speaker turned out so “interesting”.

    Good luck preparing for the data, the Fed, and the narratives and my sympathies go out to all of us as the debt ceiling seems destined to become a household conversation!

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/22/2023 – 14:30

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Jan 22

Today’s News 22nd January 2023

  • Twitter Files Prove America Headed For "Totalitarian State Territory", Expert Warns
    Twitter Files Prove America Headed For “Totalitarian State Territory”, Expert Warns

    Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times,

    Thanks to the revelations in the Twitter Files, there’s evidence that the FBI and other agencies worked to suppress “lawful speech,” and if this type of action is allowed to continue, the United States is headed for “totalitarian state territory,” Matthew Peterson, the cofounder of New Founding, said in an interview with Epoch Times–NTD collaborative program “Newsmakers.”

    New Founding helps people and organizations position themselves to avoid threats from Big Tech and “woke capital,” and Peterson has two decades of experience in digital media and political consulting.

    When asked what will happen if the country’s current trajectory continues for three to five years, Peterson said, “We’ll be in totalitarian state territory, there’s no question about it.”

    FBI Director Christopher Wray (C) on Capitol Hill in Washington, on Nov. 15, 2022. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

    “I mean, remember, this went so far as the government saying, ‘You need to find evidence that there are Russians influencing the election on Twitter.’ And Twitter saying, ‘No, that’s not happening.’

    “And then [Twitter had] to be quiet about it and not even defend themselves when they knew that there wasn’t Russian interference that they could find,” he added.

    Peterson further explained that the U.S. government drove a narrative that it knew wasn’t true and was the “antithesis” of America’s founding principles.

    “[The government’s actions are] the antithesis of America. The American founding is basically contradicted by what’s happening here, over and over again. And if we don’t do something about that, we will not have free speech in this country,” Peterson warned.

    FBI and Fake News

    Peterson pointed out that one of the biggest revelations in the Twitter Files—a collection of internal emails and communications made public by the company’s CEO, Elon Musk—was that the intelligence community’s influence on Twitter was more significant than anyone imagined.

    “What you first have to realize is that a lot of people from the intelligence community were already embedded in Twitter. So much so that they had their own Slack channel chat for people who are from the FBI,” Peterson said.

    “And so, what you see with the censorship is not just a selective, ‘we don’t like this guy, we don’t like this guy.’ It’s promoting large-scale narratives, both pro and con repeatedly, again and again and again and again.”

    And, Peterson said, the U.S. government didn’t limit itself to shadow-banning and censorship.

    In reply to the question about the Twitter Files revelation, the Department of Defense used a back channel with Twitter to create fake accounts to push a specific narrative in the Arab world. Peterson stated such actions show a direct line between the government and social media.

    “So, what we see is, again, direct channels from the U.S. government—both really creating fake news and deleting anything they don’t like. And people have to realize … what you see is a direct line again,” Peterson said.

    Additionally, Peterson said before the Twitter Files, the U.S. government and Twitter were essentially gaslighting Americans.

    Billionaire Tesla chief Elon Musk arrives at the San Francisco headquarters of Twitter on Oct. 26, stating, “let that sink in” as he completes his $44 billion acquisition of the social media company. (Twitter account of Elon Musk/AFP via Getty Images)

    “We should make clear that everyone claimed that this wasn’t happening, right? So, the whole world was being gaslit by Twitter and friends saying, ‘Oh, no. We’re not shadow-banning anyone. You know this is all crazy, right-wing talk.’

    “And what the Twitter Files have done is give conclusive, definitive proof of what was actually going on. And what was going on was shocking.

    “I think it was worse than a lot of regular people—and even experts—thought it was. I mean, Big Pharma having a direct line to censor people when it came to their thoughts and opinions about what was going on with the vaccine and COVID? Of course, famously, [there’s] the Hunter Biden laptop controversy in which news organizations were just outright censored, in violation of Twitter’s own rules.

    “And what we see is a direct line between the government and other powerful organizations, and a media outfit, over and over again, censoring people, essentially, at the whim of the powerful.”

    Peterson said such government and complicit media actions aren’t on the decline. Instead, he said, it’s “increasing every day.”

    He said action is necessary to combat that and return America to its guiding principles of free speech and limited government. “What we need to see is increasing resistance with law, and other powerful forces, fighting against this. And that starts with exposing what Elon Musk has already exposed but is now being hidden from the American public in these Twitter files.”

    The Twitter Files

    Since taking over Twitter, Musk has consistently vocalized the need for transparency regarding what happened behind the scenes at the tech company. To that end, he, via a chosen few journalists, has released secret emails and discussions about shadow-banning or removing accounts that didn’t toe the party line.

    In response to the allegations of collusion between the FBI and Twitter, the FBI said in a statement to Fox News, “The correspondence between the FBI and Twitter show nothing more than examples of our traditional, longstanding and ongoing federal government and private sector engagements, which involve numerous companies over multiple sectors and industries.

    A seal reading “Department of Justice Federal Bureau of Investigation” is displayed on the J. Edgar Hoover FBI building in Washington, on Aug. 9, 2022. (Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

    “As evidenced in the correspondence, the FBI provides critical information to the private sector in an effort to allow them to protect themselves and their customers.”

    The FBI National Press Office responded similarly to The Epoch Times’ request for comment: “The FBI regularly engages with private sector entities to provide information specific to identified foreign malign influence actors’ subversive, undeclared, covert, or criminal activities.

    “It is not based on the content of any particular message or narrative. Private sector entities independently make decisions about what, if any, action they take on their platforms and for their customers after the FBI has notified them.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 23:30

  • Which Countries Are The Most Polarized?
    Which Countries Are The Most Polarized?

    How do you measure something that’s made headlines for half a decade but is still difficult to quantify? We’re talking about polarization.

    As Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley explains below, even within the social sciences, polarization covers everything from racial segregation, to labor skill levels, to class divide, to political ideology.

    How Do You Quantify Polarization?

    Edelman’s data on which countries are the most polarized comes from survey results asking respondents two very simple questions:

    • How divided is their country?

    • How entrenched is the divide?

    The questions help bring to light the social issues a particular country is facing and the lack of consensus on those issues.

    Plotted against each other, a chart emerges. A country in the top–right corner of the chart is “severely polarized.” Countries located closer to the lower–left are considered less polarized.

    In the report, Edelman identifies four metrics to watch for and measure which help quantify polarization.

     

    Following Edelman’s metrics, countries with economic uncertainty and inequality as well as institutional distrust are more likely to be polarized. Below, we look at key highlights from the chart.

    Severely Polarized Countries

    Despite being one of the largest economies in Latin America, Argentina is the most polarized country surveyed by a large margin. Foreign loan defaults, a high fiscal deficit, and now surging inflation have created a perfect storm in the country.

    43% of the Argentinian respondents said they will be better off in five years, down 17 percentage points from last year.

    Along with fiscal upheaval, Argentinians are also dealing with enduring corruption in the public sector and abrupt policy reversals between governments. Only 20% of those surveyed in Argentina said they trusted the government—the least of all surveyed countries.

    Here are all six of the countries considered to be severely polarized:

    •  Argentina

    •  Colombia

    •  United States

    •  South Africa

    •  Spain

    •  Sweden

    In the U.S., heightened political upheaval between Democrats and Republicans over the last few years has led to strengthening ideological stances and to an abundance of headlines about polarization. Only 42% of respondents in the country trust the government.

    And in South Africa, persistent inequality and falling trust in the African National Congress also check off Edelman’s metrics. It’s also second after Argentina with the least trust in government (22%) per the survey.

    Moderately Polarized Countries

    The biggest cluster of 15 countries are in moderately polarized section of the chart, with all continents represented.

    •  Brazil

    •  South Korea

    •  Mexico

    •  France

    •  United Kingdom

    •  Japan

    •  Netherlands

    •  Italy

    •  Germany

    •  Nigeria

    •  Thailand

    •  Kenya

    •  Canada

    •  Australia

    •  Ireland

    Some are on the cusp of being severely polarized, including economic heavyweights like Japan, the UK, France, and Germany. On the other hand, smaller economies like Thailand, Kenya, and Nigeria, are doing comparatively better on the polarization chart.

    Less Polarized Countries

    Countries with fair economic outlook and high trust in institutions including China, Singapore, and India are in the bottom left sector of the chart.

    •  Indonesia

    •  China

    •  United Arab Emirates

    •  Singapore

    •  Saudi Arabia

    •  Malaysia

    •  India

    It’s interesting to note that of the seven countries in that sector, three are not democracies. That said, there are also more developing countries on this list as well, which could also be a factor.

    Looking Ahead

    Edelman notes that polarization is both “cause and consequence of distrust,” creating a self-fulfilling cycle. Aside from the four metrics stated above, concerns about the erosion of civility and weakening social fabric also lead to polarization.

    As global events unfold in 2023—including looming worries of a recession—it will be fascinating to see how countries might switch positions in the year to come.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 23:00

  • Record-High 250,000 Migrant Encounters Across US-Mexico Border In December 2022: CBP
    Record-High 250,000 Migrant Encounters Across US-Mexico Border In December 2022: CBP

    Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

    The number of migrant encounters across the U.S. southern border for December 2022 reached a record high, with the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) reporting a figure of more than a quarter of a million.

    That’s a total of 251,487 border enforcement encounters. The figure via CBP data surpasses the previous monthly record of 241,136, which was set in May 2022.

    It marks a seven percent increase from the November 2022 number of encounters, which was 234,896. The latest figure also far surpasses the number of enforcement encounters of the month of December in the prior two years: 179,253 in December 2021, and 73,994 in December 2020.

    Of the 251,487 border enforcement encounters in December 2022, 14 percent of involved individuals who have been stopped by a U.S. border agent in the previous 12 months.

    There were a total of 216,162 unique encounters in December 2022, which is an 11 percent increase in the number of unique enforcement encounters from November 2022. The CBP says the increase is “driven largely by an increased number of individuals fleeing authoritarian regimes in Cuba and Nicaragua.”

    New Border Enforcement Measures

    Despite the record-breaking figure, CBP Acting Commissioner Troy Miller said that it shows the Biden administration’s efforts at the border have been effective.

    “The December update shows our new border enforcement measures are working. Even as overall encounters rose … we continued to see a sharp decline in the number of Venezuelans unlawfully crossing our southwest border, down 82 percent from September 2022,” Miller said in a statement.

    “Early data suggests the expanded measures for Cubans, Haitians, and Nicaraguans are having a similar impact, and we look forward to sharing the additional data in the next update.”

    Miller’s remarks refer to the Biden administration’s recent border changes, which include a parole program that was launched in October 2022 targeting Venezuelans. The program allows up to 24,000 Venezuelans to enter the United States under parole authority, which grants them entry and work authorization for a year, but is not a legal status. A Venezuelan national must meet certain criteria to be eligible, including having a sponsor in the United States to provide “financial and other support.”

    Under the parole program, Venezuelans who walk or swim across the border after Oct. 12, 2022, will be returned to Mexico under the Trump-era policy Title 42, which allows for blocking asylum claims and swift expulsion of most unauthorized border crossers under the grounds of keeping contagious diseases out of the United States.

    Until Oct. 12, 2022, Venezuelans weren’t subject to expulsion under Title 42 because neither their home country nor another country was willing to take them. Prior to the new measures, migrants from Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Mexico were subject to expulsion from the United States under Title 42.

    Biden Expands Parole Authority

    President Joe Biden in early January then expanded the parole program to nationals of Cuba, Nicaragua, and Haiti, which means they can apply for parole, and if they meet eligibility criteria, they can receive a two-year permit to work in the United States. Now, the nationals from these three countries and Venezuela who unlawfully cross the U.S. southern border are now also subject to expulsion under Title 42, with Mexico agreeing to receive up to 30,000 expelled people a month.

    Miller attributed the rising number of overall enforcement encounters in December 2022 to “smugglers spreading misinformation around the court-ordered lifting of the Title 42 public health order.” The Epoch Times cannot independently verify the assertion. Currently, Title 42 remains in effect for the time being due to a U.S. Supreme Court order in late December 2022.

    Republican lawmakers have accused Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas of breaking immigration law in the way the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has implemented the parole authority.

    Prior to it being used for Venezuelans, Cubans, Haitians, and Nicaraguans, the parole authority was implemented under Biden on a mass scale to alleviate swamped Border Patrol stations amid soaring illegal crossings, and to allow in tens of thousands of Ukrainians.

    ‘Catastrophic Crisis’

    Mark Morgan, former acting CBP commissioner and Heritage visiting fellow, called the situation at the border a “catastrophic crisis” and said the Biden administration has misrepresented the situation there.

    “What’s been happening at the border the last two years continues to be a catastrophic crisis, and the White House, Secretary Mayorkas, and the open-borders advocates on the left continue to lie about it,” he told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

    “Under the last Democratic president, 25,000 encounters was a borderline crisis—for the Biden administration, 10 times that number is simply business as usual.”

    Morgan said the Biden administration’s open-border policies have all “abjectly failed, yet [Mayorkas] continues to absurdly claim the opposite.”

    “No sane person could look at the border and claim we’re on the right course. Any other secretary would have long ago resigned in shame and disgrace, but it’s clear Secretary Mayorkas simply has no shame to begin with. So, Congress must immediately move to impeach him, begin meaningful oversight, and pass legislation to end the crisis and reduce illegal immigration.”

    The House Oversight Committee on Jan. 19 launched a probe into the border crisis by issuing a request for multiple documents from Mayorkas and calling on multiple border chiefs to testify at a hearing to be held in the week of Feb. 6.

    Since Biden took office in 2021 and scaled back or terminated key Trump-era policies, illegal immigration has soared to record levels.

    More than 2.3 million apprehensions were recorded at the U.S.–Mexico border in fiscal year 2022, which ended on Sept. 30, 2022—up about 37 percent from the previous year.

    “Joe Biden is the first president in my lifetime to intentionally un-secure the border. By way of more than 90 executive orders, he undid the successful Trump-era policies that brought illegal immigration to a 40-year low and gave us the most secure border of our lifetimes,” Tom Homan, former acting ICE director and Heritage visiting fellow, told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

    “This president and his team were warned what would happen if they got rid of those policies. They did it anyway, and you’re looking at the consequences.

    “More Americans than ever dying from fentanyl flooding across the southwest border. More women and children abused and sexually assaulted on the dangerous journey through Central America and Mexico. More migrants found dead on U.S. soil than ever. Record profits for the cartels as they traffic and smuggle historic numbers of drugs and people across the border.

    “It’s inhumane. It’s a slap in the face to the men and women of the Border Patrol, who are absolutely overwhelmed, as well as to ICE agents who’ve been told they can’t detain or deport most of those who break our laws.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 22:30

  • These Are The Oldest People In The World
    These Are The Oldest People In The World

    With the passing of France’s Lucile Randon at the age of 118 this week, Statista’s Martin Armstrong reports that the title of ‘oldest living human’ has been bequeathed to the U.S. born Maria Branyas Morera. At the ripe old age of 115, she sits atop the infographic below, showing the age and birthplace of the oldest living people on Earth.

    Infographic: The Oldest People in the World | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    All women, the countries of birth most represented here are Japan and the United States; accounting for four and three, respectively.

    All entries have been validated by the Gerontology Research Group.

    Do these ‘supercentenarians’ have any advice for living for so long?

    Emma Morano, born in 1899 and who died in 2017 at the age of 117 was thought to have been the last person alive to have lived in three different centuries.

    The Italian apparently put her long life down to leaving her husband in 1938 and the consumption of two raw eggs and some raw minced meat every day.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 22:00

  • School System Failing And Is No Longer There To Educate, Says Teacher
    School System Failing And Is No Longer There To Educate, Says Teacher

    Authored by Jackson Elliott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    America’s education system has failed, according to a teacher and charter school enthusiast. And now parents search for new schools, surveys show.

    “The goal of the education system today is no longer to educate. It’s to do everything but that,” Dan Fisher told the Epoch Times.

    A school bus waits to pick up children outside an elementary school in Chattanooga, Tenn. on Jan. 19, 2023. (Jackson Elliott/The Epoch Times)

    Fisher teaches 10th grade at a high school whose name he declined to publicize. Before that, he taught as a professor. The classrooms he is in today let him see a system in collapse.

    Tenth-graders can’t read, most students don’t want to participate, and teachers care more about woke indoctrination than addressing these issues, Fisher said.

    But kids have plenty of energy to invest in their tech, he added.

    “After school is fascinating,” he said. “They’re not playing. They’re not running. They’re just on their phones,” he said.

    Like several other educational activists, Fisher said COVID-19 pandemic changes revealed the rotting condition of America’s schools.

    “They assumed that schools were the way they were when they went through, and they had no idea how much things have changed, as far as curriculum and other things,” he said.

    High graduation rates are fake, said Fisher. Schools regularly pass students with little regard to whether they meet standards, he added.

    “We’re asked at the 10th-grade level, 11th-grade level, to help teach reading,” he said. “Isn’t that kind of what K-8 is for?”

    In this environment, it’s no wonder that most parents are looking for new schools Fisher said. He’s supported by a new survey by National School Choice Week, a charitable program of the nonprofit National School Choice Awareness Foundation.

    Peeved Parents

    Nearly 54 percent of parents of more than 3,800 surveyed have considered a new school for their children in the past year, the study found.

    The number of dissatisfied parents got higher the younger parents were, researchers found.

    Among parents ages 18–29, about six in 10 considered moving schools in the past year.

    Among parents aged 30 to 44, a little more than half considered moving schools. Among those aged 45 to 60, just under half considered a move. And about four out of 10 parents aged 60 and above considered moving schools.

    The survey noted that African American, Hispanic, and Millennial parents were most likely to consider changing schools. These groups were also most likely to say there weren’t enough choices between schools.

    Caucasian Americans were least likely to consider changing schools and most likely to say school systems provided enough choice, the survey noted.

    Not all parents who considered a new school chose one or remained in the tension of making a choice, the study said. About 16 percent of all parents surveyed chose new schools, 11.3 percent considered doing so but didn’t, and 25.8 percent are considering one.

    Many parents considered multiple options, the survey said. But the most often-cited options were nearby traditional public schools. The second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth-most popular options were public schools outside parents’ districts, public charter schools, faith-based schools, homeschooling, and full-time online schooling.

    The least-popular option was “microschooling” or “pod learning,” methods that teach a group of 10 or fewer kids.

    Nearly 65 percent of parents said they wished they had more information on schooling options, the survey said.

    Never Normal

    For the past few years, parents have churned between schools, Shelby Doyle, vice president of public awareness at the National School Choice Awareness Foundation, told The Epoch Times.

    With COVID-19 lockdowns over, this trend has continued.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 21:30

  • Where The World Celebrates Chinese New Year
    Where The World Celebrates Chinese New Year

    For around 1.4 billion Chinese, the new year begins on January 22 – unlike in the Gregorian calendar, China calculates its traditional new year’s date according to the lunar cycle. While various Asian nations also celebrate their own Lunar New Year festivals, the Chinese New Year is in fact a public holiday in several nations around the world, not just in the People’s Republic.

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz shows in the chart below, Southeast Asia is the region in which most countries give their citizens time off for the beginning of the Chinese New Year. These include Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia. In recent years, the Chinese New Year has also been introduced as a special holiday in the Philippines, but according to local media reports as of January 14, there will be no separate days off this year. South Korea and Vietnam also organize celebrations at the beginning of the lunar year, but these differ in part from the customs of the Chinese New Year and are more likely to be shaped by national culture.

    Infographic: Where the World Celebrates Chinese New Year | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    While the majority of the countries and territories that explicitly celebrate the Chinese New Year are in Asia, there are two exceptions.

    In Suriname in South America, the turn of the year in both the Gregorian and the lunar calendar are public holidays. According to the official census, around seven percent of the approximately 618,000 inhabitants are of Chinese descent.

    The island state of Mauritius in the Indian Ocean also celebrates the Chinese New Year, although only about three percent of the approximately 1.3 million inhabitants have Chinese roots. In the 19th and the first half of the 20th century, the island was a popular emigration destination for Chinese from the province of Guangdong, also referred to as Canton at the time.

    Chinese New Year celebrations are spread over the course two weeks and usually triggers an increased volume of travel, one of the largest waves of migration in the world. The festivities also mark the official start of spring, which is why the Lunar New Year is also known as Chūnjié or Spring Festival. According to the official lunar calendar, 2023 is the year of the rabbit, which last happened in 2011.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 21:00

  • IRS Reminds Wage Earners To Adjust 2023 Withholding Now Or Face A Surprise Later
    IRS Reminds Wage Earners To Adjust 2023 Withholding Now Or Face A Surprise Later

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has issued an alert to taxpayers, encouraging them to adjust their 2023 withholding so as to either avoid effectively giving the government an interest-free loan of their money or face the prospect of penalties and interest if too little tax is withheld.

    The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) building is seen in Washington on Sept. 28, 2020. (Erin Scott/Reuters)

    In a news release on Jan. 19, the IRS announced that it has made available an online tool that wage-earning taxpayers can use to determine if they have too much or too little tax withheld from their paychecks.

    Called the Tax Withholding Estimator, it lets taxpayers figure out if they will receive a refund or need to make a payment to the IRS in order to avoid owing taxes and potentially incurring penalties the following year.

    Having too much tax withheld and waiting for a refund at tax time is akin to giving the government an interest-free loan.

    But if a taxpayer does not have enough taxes withheld from their paychecks throughout the year, they may owe a balance when they file their taxes. This means they will have to pay the remaining balance of taxes owed to the IRS when they file their tax return.

    Owing a balance at tax time can be a significant financial burden, especially if the balance is large or if the taxpayer is struggling to make ends meet.

    There are also penalties and interest that may apply when the taxpayer owes a balance when filing their taxes. The IRS charges interest on any unpaid taxes starting from the original due date of the return. Penalties may also be assessed if the taxpayer fails to file their return on time or if they owe taxes and fail to pay them by the deadline.

    Owing a balance can also have negative effects on credit score as it is considered a debt that is unpaid. This can also lead to wage garnishments, liens on property, and even imprisonment if the taxpayer fails to pay their taxes.

    Avoid Quarterly Estimated Tax Payments

    The way taxes are paid in the United States is on a pay-as-you-go basis, which means that taxes are paid as income is earned throughout the year. This is typically done through withholding from paychecks, pension payments, Social Security benefits, and certain other government payments.

    However, for people who have multiple sources of income, such as a second job or income from self-employment, unemployment, annuities, the gig economy, or digital assets, they may be required to make quarterly estimated tax payments to the IRS. This is to ensure that they are paying enough taxes throughout the year and to avoid owing a balance when they file their taxes.

    By using the Tax Withholding Estimator tool, the IRS says that taxpayers can tailor the amount of income tax they should have withheld from their paychecks, which can also help avoid the need for quarterly estimated tax payments.

    After determining how much tax should be withheld, taxpayers can make the change by submitting a new Form W-4 to employers.

    Other Updates

    The IRS said on Jan. 19 that individuals and businesses affected by the storm in certain counties in Georgia and Alabama now have until May 15, 2023, to file and pay their federal tax returns.

    This relief applies to any area designated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and currently includes Butts, Henry, Jasper, Meriwether, Newton, Spalding, and Troup counties in Georgia and Autauga and Dallas counties in Alabama.

    Other areas that FEMA adds later to the disaster area will also qualify for the same relief, with the list of eligible localities available on the IRS’s website: Tax Relief in Disaster Situations.

    Reads more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 20:30

  • Six More Classified Documents Discovered At Biden House
    Six More Classified Documents Discovered At Biden House

    The Department of Justice found “six items consisting of documents with classification markings” during a Friday search of President Joe Biden’s home in Wilmington, Delaware, according to a Saturday statement by the president’s personal lawyers.

    Also found were notes from Biden’s time as a Senator, as well as his tenure as Vice President, according to a statement from Biden attorney Bob Bauer, which strategically leads with ‘we’ve fully cooperated!’

    The search lasted from 9:45 a.m. until 10:30 p.m. Friday, during which members of Biden’s personal legal tam were present along with members from the Office of the White House counsel, according to the statement.

    The DOJ also took materials “for further review.”

    The new documents mark the latest development in the scandal involving classified documents found at non-authorized locations used by Biden. The first batch of papers was discovered in early November, the day before midterm elections, at the Penn Biden Center.

    More documents marked classified were found at his Wilmington, Delaware home in December – and then earlier this month, an additional batch of papers was found at the home.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Justice Department didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. Department officials earlier considered having FBI agents monitor a search by Mr. Biden’s lawyers for classified documents at his homes but decided against it, both to avoid complicating later stages of the investigation and because Mr. Biden’s attorneys had quickly turned over a first batch and were cooperating, the Journal reported this week. 

    Some law enforcement officials had discussed the possibility of asking Mr. Biden’s team for consent to have the FBI search the property themselves. Officials didn’t immediately take that step in part to preserve their freedom to take a tougher line later, including by executing a search warrant, the Journal reported.

    Instead, the two sides agreed that Mr. Biden’s personal attorneys would inspect the homes, notify the Justice Department as soon as they identified any other potentially classified records, and arrange for law-enforcement authorities to take them.  –Wall Street Journal

    So, Biden’s personal attorneys searched the house themselves, said they turned everything over to the DOJ, and yet more were found? When Trump’s lawyers did that he was raided by the FBI.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 19:30

  • Judge Grants Restraining Order Against Illinois "Assault Weapon" Ban
    Judge Grants Restraining Order Against Illinois “Assault Weapon” Ban

    Just 10 days after Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker signed into law a ban on so-called “assault weapons” and “high-capacity” magazines, a state judge has issued a temporary restraining order against it — and said legislators and the governor “egregiously violated” procedural requirements under the Illinois Constitution in their rush to enact the measure. 

    Gov J.B. Pritzker at the Jan. 10 signing of the new Illinois gun control law (ABC7 Chicago)

    For now, the restraining order only provides relief to the 866 individual plaintiffs who joined a particular one of multiple lawsuits challenging the ban, but it signals that those plaintiffs are likely to prevail in their suit.

    It’s also yet another powerful shot across the bow of gun-grabbing politicians, who everywhere find themselves reeling in the face of last year’s pivotal Supreme Court decision in New York State Rifle Association, Inc. v Bruen.  

    “Plaintiffs are being immediately and irreparably harmed each day in which their fundamental right to bear arms is being denied,” wrote Judge Joshua Morrison in his 11-page ruling. He rejected the government’s assertion that the law did not impact a fundamental right.

    What’s more, Morrison said “the plaintiffs have shown a likelihood of success” in their suit against the law, known as the Protect Illinois Communities Act. That likelihood springs largely from the plaintiffs’ assertion that the rushed legislative process was unlawful:

    “This Court finds that the Defendants [Pritzker et al] unequivocally and egregiously violated the Three Readings Rule of the Illinois Constitution in order to circumvent the Constitutional requirements and avoid public discourse.”

    Morrison also said the law isn’t likely to survive scrutiny under principles established by last year’s Supreme Court Bruen decision.

    The law has already been severely undercut by Illinois’ county sheriffs — as nearly every one of them has promised not to enforce it, saying it’s a violation of the Second Amendment. Pritzker called it “political grandstanding at its worst.” 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Illinois law made it illegal to sell a list of some 170 specific semiautomatic rifles, shotguns and pistols, with the latter category largely comprising AR-style pistols. Targeted firearms that were owned prior to the ban are grandfathered, but must eventually be registered with the Illinois State Police.

    The new law also outlaws long gun magazines with a capacity greater than 10, and handgun magazines with a capacity greater than 15. Grandfathered magazines needn’t be registered, but if you dare to have possess one outside of private property in Illinois, you’ll face a $1,000 fine. 

    The judge also said the law’s exemption of certain classes of people wasn’t rational. For example…

    “The Court cannot find it logical that a warden of a prison (included in the exempted persons category) is necessarily better trained or more experienced in the handling of weapons than retired military personnel (no included in the exempted persons category).” 

    This was a state court decision. The law faces another challenge in federal court, where plaintiffs accuse Illinois of outlawing firearms and magazines that are “commonly possessed and used for lawful purposes,” and therefore protected by the Second Amendment. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 19:00

  • Democrats Propose Constitutional Amendment To Overturn First Amendment Decision
    Democrats Propose Constitutional Amendment To Overturn First Amendment Decision

    Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Democrats in the House of Representatives have introduced a constitutional amendment to overturn the Supreme Court’s controversial Citizens United v. FEC decision made in 2010.

    Committee member Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) speaks during the fourth of eight planned public hearings of the U.S. House Jan. 6 committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, on June 21, 2022. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

    The court ruled 5–4 that the free speech clause of the First Amendment prohibits the government from restricting independent expenditures for political campaigns by corporations and overruled an earlier decision that banned corporations from making “electioneering communications.”

    Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif). said in a press release he and Democrat colleagues introduced the “Democracy For All Amendment” to “overturn legal precedents that have allowed unrestrained campaign spending and dark money to corrupt American democracy.” He has introduced the constitutional amendment every year since 2013, according to the release.

    “The flow of unrestricted corporate and dark money into our elections has dangerously eroded the American people’s faith in our democracy, and in our government’s ability to deliver for them and their families,” Schiff said in a press release. “Citizens United was one of the most egregious enablers of special interest money, but it was only the latest in a long line of Supreme Court cases that opened the floodgates. To truly rein in dark money, we must amend our Constitution.”

    Schiff said the amendment would close “legal loopholes” that he said allows “wealthy megadonors, corporations, and special interest groups” to exploit the political system.

    Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission

    Schiff said the move comes before the 13th anniversary of the decision on Jan. 21, which the Associated Press said came from a “bitterly divided U.S. Supreme Court.”

    The AP said the decision “vastly increased the power of big business and labor unions to influence government decisions by freeing them to spend their millions directly to sway elections for president and Congress.”

    The Federal Election Campaign Act prohibited corporations and labor unions from using general funds to make election communications or speech that expressly advocated for a candidate in a federal election, including broadcasts, cable or satellite communication that is publicly distributed within 30 days of a primary or 60 days of a general election, according to the FEC.

    Demonstrators march in the snow through Lafayette Park, outside the White House, during a rally against the Supreme Court’s decision in 2010 favor of Citizens United, which allows private citizens and corporations to make unlimited donations for political campaigns, in Washington, DC on Jan. 21, 2015. (Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images)

    In January 2008, Citizens United, a non-profit organization, released a film about then-Senator Hillary Clinton, prior to the Democratic Party’s 2008 primary elections.

    The group wanted to pay cable companies to make the film available for free through video-on-demand services. It planned to make the film available within 30 days of the primaries, but feared it would be covered by the Act’s ban, according to the FEC, which could have subjected them to civil and criminal penalties.

    The group sought declaratory and injunctive relief against the FEC arguing the Act was unconstitutional. The District Court denied the preliminary injunction and granted the Commission’s motion for summary judgment.

    The Supreme Court noted jurisdiction and found that they were “required to consider the facial validity” of the Act’s ban in regard to freedom of speech.

    The Court held the Act was a ban on speech and “political speech must prevail against laws that would suppress it, whether by design or inadvertence.”

    It held disclaimer and disclosure requirements are “constitutional as applied to both the broadcast of the film and the ads promoting the film itself, since the ads qualify as electioneering communications.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 18:30

  • These Will Be The World's Next Megacities
    These Will Be The World’s Next Megacities

    By 2050, 70 percent of the world’s population will live in cities, up from 54 percent in 2020, according to a new report by the Institute for Economics & Peace. This increase is being driven by both population growth and a continued shift towards urbanization, particularly to so called ‘megacities’ – metropolises that have a population of 10 million or more.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck details below, urbanization takes place because of both push and pull factors. The IEA describes how in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s capital of Kinshasa, factors pushing people away from rural areas include issues of violence and a general lack of security, the presence of criminal groups, lack of policing, ecological degradation, and the fact there are too many people for the available agricultural land. Meanwhile, a pull factor could be the attraction of an increase in the standard of living.

    There are currently 33 megacities worldwide. Tokyo (37.3 million), Delhi (32.3 million), Shanghai (28.7 million), Dhaka (22.6 million), São Paulo (22.5 million) and Mexico City (22.1 million) take the lead as the most populous of these. By 2050, 14 more cities are set to join their ranks, with a total increased population of some 213 million people. The new order will then become Delhi (49.6 million), Dhaka (34.6 million), Tokyo (32.6 million), Cairo (32.6 million) and Mumbai (32.4 million).

    Infographic: The World’s Next Megacities | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    In addition to a rise in the number of people living in these cities, the countries themselves will also likely see economic growth.

    According to AXA, Manila in the Philippines and Bangalore in India are expected to see close to 150 percent GDP growth by the end of the decade.

    Africa is the only world region expected to still see strong population growth by the end of the century, according to the Pew Research Center, while all other regions’ growth rates will start to tail off. This is reflected in our chart, as it’s notably the African megacities that will see the biggest population rate increases. Meanwhile, only three megacities will see decreases in their population size: the Russian capital of Moscow (-3 percent), and Japan’s Osaka (-12 percent) and Tokyo (-12 percent). Despite Tokyo’s shrinkage, brought on by an aging population and declining birth rate, the capital will still rank as the world’s fourth most populated megacity in 2050.

    The 33 cities that have already hit megacity status are the following: Delhi, Dhaka, Cairo, Tokyo, Mumbai, Shanghai, Kinshasa, Lagos, Karachi, Mexico City, São Paulo, Beijing, Kolkata, New York City, Manila, Lahore, Bangalore, Chongqing, Buenos Aires, Osaka, Hyderabad, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Los Angeles, Rio de Janeiro, Bangkok, Jakarta, Shenzhen, Lima, Paris and Moscow.

    It’s important to note here that different sources cite different statistics, and that especially with forecasts, situations can change. For instance, where the United Nations initially predicted that India would overtake China as the biggest country in 2027, it is now expected to take place in April of this year. In terms of megacity status, according to UN data from 2018, several additional cities, including Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia and Wuhan in China, will make the roundup even by 2035. Read more on the nature of conflicting reports here.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 18:00

  • Newsom Twosome: Siebel Newsom's Films – Shown In Middle Schools – Feature Porn, Radical Gender Ideologies, And Her Husband Gavin
    Newsom Twosome: Siebel Newsom’s Films – Shown In Middle Schools – Feature Porn, Radical Gender Ideologies, And Her Husband Gavin

    By Adam Andrzejewski of Open the Books Substack

    FLOWCHART: How Jennifer Siebel Newsom used taxpayer dollars to trade with herself, her nonprofit organization, and her for-profit business. The organization refused to disclose how much of their screening revenues came from California public schools.

    California Governor Gavin Newsom and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, are the dream team. He runs the state and she’s a nonprofit founder, entrepreneur, and filmmaker.

    While her husband attends to state business, Siebel Newsom engages in her passion: advancing “gender justice” through her charitable nonprofit The Representation Project. According to tax documents the organization is “committed to building a thriving and inclusive society through films, education, and social activism.”  

    We previously reported that while the governor engaged in the highly unethical practice of soliciting 1,000 state vendors for $10.6 million in campaign cash, the first partner, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, solicited state vendors and the governor’s campaign donors for large gifts to her charity, The Representation Project.

    However, Newsom’s charity shouldn’t have been soliciting anyone for donations throughout most of 2022.

    Last week, our investigation broke the story that The Representation Project was not in compliance with the California Charitable Solicitation Act. Now, it’s clear that the charity spent last year engaged in big-money fundraising events with corporate executives and philanthropists – while its charitable filings were delinquent with the state.

    Then, the Newsom nonprofit scrambled to submit their proper registration. Working with the California Attorney General, a process that normally takes days or weeks was completed in hours.

    Screenshot from the state of California Department of Justice showing The Representation Project’s delinquent status. As of 1/12/2023, 10AM CT.

    So, just what does Jennifer Siebel Newsom’s charity do – with the full support of her husband, the governor, and underwritten by the wealthy California establishment?

    THE FILMS

    Siebel Newsom, through her non-profit The Representation Project, has released four films advocating gender justice. The films are leased for screenings to individuals, corporations, and schools, and come with their own lesson plans. Schools spend between $49-$599 to screen these movies to children.

    Jennifer Siebel Newsom is credited as a writer and director on each of these films. Two of the movies feature Gavin Newsom himself, and many of the lesson plan activities are oriented toward engaging children in social and political activism.

    Because of Gavin Newsom’s role in these films and because licenses are sold to schools which the governor is responsible for funding with tax dollars, auditors at OpenTheBooks.com felt the organization deserved further scrutiny.

    Who’s Watching? 2.6 million students in 5,000 schools

    According to The Representation Project’s Impact Report (2011-2021), the organization’s film curricula are being used in over 5,000 schools in all fifty states. The Representation Project claims over 11,200 copies of the curricula have been distributed, reaching more than 2.6 million students.

    Tax records show that since 2012 the nonprofit has generated $1,483,001 in film screening revenue, although it is unclear how much money came from schools versus other sources. We asked The Representation Project for the number of California schools that purchased a screening license and received no response.  

    Auditors at OpenTheBooks.com watched Newsom’s movies and read the lesson plans. What we found was, at times, shocking: sexually explicit images, political boosterism, and something called “The Genderbread Person.”

    SEXUALLY EXPLICIT IMAGES

    Screenshot from “age-appropriate” middle school curriculum video for Miss Representation; see full video here. 

    Miss Representation’s curriculum links to “age-appropriate” video clips in its K-12 lesson plans and says that the full film is rated PG-14. (Certainly, parents may still object to clips from the “age-appropriate” film like the animated, upside down stripper shown above). 

    The film features strong language and women dressed provocatively:

    • Caroline Heldman, who is now executive director of Newsom’s non-profit, described women’s role in action movies as “the fighting fuck toy.”

    • Actress Daphne Zuniga, famous for Melrose Place and film parody Spaceballs, suggested women should “tell those fuckers to get penis implants,” in response to being told to get plastic surgery. 

    • Middle school children are served images of upside-down strippers with little left to the imagination (see above).

    Then, it gets worse.

    Newsom’s film The Mask You Live In features the website addresses of porn sites including Porn Hub, MassiveCams, BDSM.XXX, and Brazzers.com. The pornographic images displayed in the film are tagged with descriptions such as “domination,” “face fuck,” “kinky couples,” and “…dirty brunettes.”

    Newsom included images of naked or mostly naked women being slapped, handcuffed, and brutalized in pornographic videos. The pictures are graphic even when blurred. Screenshots of those scenes can be found HERE (VIEWER DISCRETION IS ADVISED).

    These jarring pictures are displayed with their corresponding porn website addresses – providing a roadmap for future exploration. The film seems to justify their harmful content by saying that “34% of youth online receive UNWANTED PORNOGRAPHIC EXPOSURE.”

    However, 100% of the youth (or anyone else) receive unwanted or unwarranted pornographic exposure by watching Newsom’s movies.

    In 2019, one parent filed a complaint about a screening of The Mask You Live In for his 12-year-old daughter’s class at Creekside Middle School in California. In an interview with The Sacramento Bee the father said,

    “Some of the images when slowed down were not blurred, and even when they are blurred, it is obvious what is going on. It is absolutely profane and disgusting.” 

    An investigation found a substitute teacher accidentally screened the full version of the film rather than an “age-appropriate” version. However, The Representation Project recommends the full version for ages 15+. 

    Siebel Newsom’s idea is to protect children from highly exploitative and disturbing sexual media content seems to involve showing it to them personally.

    BOOSTING GAVIN NEWSOM – THE COMPASSIONATE POLITICIAN

    Screenshot of then-Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom in Siebel Newsom’s film, Miss Representation.

    Gavin Newsom himself provides interview commentary for Miss Representation and The Great American Lie. 

    Newsom speaks three times in Miss Representation and is portrayed as a champion of women’s rights—see this example from the middle school curriculum video (18:37):

    “One of the first things I did when I came to San Francisco (as mayor) is I appointed a female police chief and appointed a female fire chief.” 

    Getting paid by schools to portray your politician husband as a standup guy to captive children in the classroom was such a winning idea, Siebel Newsom deployed it again in The Great American Lie.

    Here, Newsom makes five appearances to deliver political talking points, including: 

    At the end of the day a budget is a set of values, budget reflects your values.” 

    “This notion of interdependence—that we’re all in this together, that we all rise and fall together—is absolutely true.” 

    “We’re not bystanders in this world, we have the ability to step up and solve big problems, we have done that in the past, it’s just a question of prioritization, of political will.” 

    Siebel Newsom’s provided companion curriculum require student discussion of Gavin Newsom’s points and are told to vote, and help others vote, for politicians “who show empathy through their support care [sic] policies.”

    Activity from The Great American Lie curriculum for high school and college students. Students are asked to watch and discuss a clip of Gavin Newsom.

    Call to action from The Great American Lie curriculum for high school and college students. Students are told to vote and help others vote for candidates “who show empathy through their support care [sic] policies” 

    Overview: Jennifer Siebel Newsom makes a movie portraying Gavin Newsom as a politician that supports certain policies, and then in the movie’s curriculum advises students to vote and campaign for politicians that support those policies.  

    Schools, which receive funding from the state, pay The Representation Project to show this movie, and use taxpayer-funded class time to facilitate these lessons.

    In July 2022 Gavin Newsom signed a budget of $128 billion for state schools and community colleges. 

    THE GENDERBREAD PERSON

    Source: Genderbread Person activities from The Mask You Live In curriculum for middle and high school students. 

    Multiple lesson plans from The Representation Project promote radical notions of gender and sexuality.

    One such lesson for middle and high schoolers includes the “genderbread person,” who aims to show children how biological sex, “gender expression,” “sexual attraction,” and “gender identity” exist on a spectrum, which can be mixed and matched. 

    While kindergarteners are spared the genderbread person in their curriculum, they are offered similar lessons on “gender identity,” introducing genders other than “boy” and “girl.”

    LEFT-WING POLITICAL ACTIVISM – THE “PRIVILEGE WALK”

    Kids forced to watch The Representation Project films in schools aren’t just subjected to gender ideology, sexually explicit images, and Gavin Newsom’s one-liners. They’re being given a left-wing framework through which to see the world, and then prompted to conduct social and political activism.  

    In The Great American Lie curriculum, students are asked to do a “privilege walk,” divulging personal information in order to compare themselves to peers inside and outside the classroom. “Privileges” include being “a cisgendered man,” “white,” “born in the United States,” “straight,” and speaking English as a first language.

    Activity from The Great American Lie curriculum for high school and college students. 

    Speakers in The Great American Lie are clear about what “privilege” means—something you hurt other people with, something you should feel bad about, and something you should work to change.  

    Journalist Charles Blow, who is now a New York Times opinion columnist, said during the film:

    “We need to stop being blind to history, stop being blind to systems, understand that there are privileges and there are oppressions in society, and in fact they act like a see-saw. Your privilege is actually built on my oppression.” 

    Lawyer Bryan Stevenson followed up, encouraging viewers to feel “shame and sorrow:”

    “We actually have to engage in truth telling, we’re going to have to express some shame and sorrow about who we are and what we’ve done, we’re going to have to find the will to reconcile ourselves to a different future.” 

    The way to relieve this shame, according to the film, is through social and political activism, as Professor Niobe Way said:

    “If you don’t address the racism, sexism, homophobia, hatred―the hatred―we have in our culture, then you can’t start having a conversation about love, peace and understanding.” 

    Newsome and her non-profit recommends The Great American Lie for ages 11+.

    STUDY: The Student-to-Activist Assembly Line

    Curricula from the three available films advise diverse ways for students to become activists within their families and communities. Suggested activities include promoting The Representation Project social media campaigns, voting for candidates that “support the care economy,” and asking students to “market and host a screening” of The Representation Project films (while paying a screening fee to the organization). 

    (A)

    (B) 

    (C) 

    Calls to action in the curricula from (A) Miss Representation for middle and high schoolers, (B) The Mask You Live In for middle and high schoolers, (C) The Great American Lie for high school and college students  

    Jennifer Siebel Newsom produced, wrote, and directed all these films, but if her enthusiasm for cultivating young activists was not obvious enough, we need only listen to her conclusions. 

    In 2021 high school participants in The Representation Project’s film course joined a moderated panel with Siebel Newsom to discuss The Great American Lie.  

    One student stated: “There’s no age limit for activism… the younger you are the easier it is for you to see these changes that need to be made.” 

    Siebel Newsom replied: “That’s great, thank you.” 

    SUMMARY – FOLLOW THE MONEY 

    The Representation Project not only solicits donors from big-money political supporters of Gavin Newsom, but also receives public tax dollars through schools to create a new generation of supporters and activists in the state’s—and country’s—schoolchildren.

    The Representation Project transforms public school expenditures into activist training expenses, and in the process exposes children to objectionable sexual content.  

    Various funding sources translate directly to financial gain for Jennifer Siebel Newsom. 

    Since The Representation Project’s founding she has collected $1,501,727 in salary. Her current title is Chief Creative Officer, and she also sits on the nonprofit’s board of directors. She is the top paid executive at her non-profit with a $150,000 annual salary between 2013 and 2021.  

    Siebel Newsom also founded a for-profit company, Girls Club Entertainment Inc., which contracts (with Newsom’s nonprofit) for the production costs associated with the movies and owns the license for Miss Representation.   

    According to tax records, the nonprofit (The Representation Project) has paid Girls Club Entertainment (Newsom’s for-profit company) $1,647,376 since 2012.  

    NOTE: We requested comments from Jennifer Siebel Newsom and her nonprofit, The Representation Project multiple times over the last couple of months. We also requested comment from Gov. Newsom. We never received any response.

    ADDITIONAL READING:

    The Representation Project, IRS Informational 990 Returns 2011-2021, hosted by Propublia

    Newsom Twosome: Jennifer Siebel Newsom’s Charity Is Out Of Compliance But Solicits Donations From State Vendors & Governor’s Campaign Donors | OpenTheBooks.Substack | January 12, 2023

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom Reaped $10.6 Million In Campaign Cash From 979 State Vendors Who Pocketed $6.2 Billion | OpenTheBooks.Substack.com | August 2022

    Historic Announcement– California’s Books Are Open – 201,000 Vendors Received $87 Billion In State Payments | OpenTheBooks.Substack.com | August 2022

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 17:30

  • Ron Klain White House Departure Reported One Day After Scapegoat Found For Slow-Walking Classified Documents
    Ron Klain White House Departure Reported One Day After Scapegoat Found For Slow-Walking Classified Documents

    After working for Joe Biden on and off for more than three decades, White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain is expected to step down in coming weeks because he’s ‘ready to move on,’ the NY Times reports.

    The news of Klain’s departure comes one day after the White House threw senior adviser Anita Dunn under the bus for the decision to ‘keep the public information flow to a trickle’ regarding President Biden’s classified document scandal.

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    Is Klain’s departure related to the decision to slow-walk news that classified documents from Biden’s VP days were found in unauthorized locations? We don’t know at this stage, but we assume Klain was apprised of Dunn’s strategy, and perhaps even signed off on it. Now that we’re in the ‘who said what, and when’ phase of a Special Counsel investigation into the matter, nothing is off the table. Maybe he was just tired of performing elder care?

    The departure would also come at a time when the White House faces a widening array of political and legal threats from a newly appointed special counsel investigating the improper handling of classified documents and a flurry of other inquiries by the newly installed Republican majority in the House. The next chief of staff will be charged with managing the defense of Mr. Biden’s White House and any counterattack as the 2024 election approaches. -NY Times

    The Times suggests Klain’s departure could be related to Biden’s anticipated 2024 reelection campaign, and says “advisers predict more moves as some aides shift from the White House to the campaign.”

    So – not rats bailing from a sinking ship.

    The Times notes that Klain has been so influential that Republicans ‘derisively call him a virtual prime minister,’ and Democrats ‘blame him when they are disappointed in a decision.’

    Klain has also presided over ‘a rash of troubles’ that have tanked public support for Biden – including the highest inflation in 40 years, and the creation of a border crisis after shredding much of former President Trump’s border policy.

    On that note, the Times also reports that Biden’s national economic adviser, Brian Dees, is expected to leave later this year.

    As for those classified documents

    The Times reported on Friday that White House senior adviser, Anita Dunn – along with her husband, Biden’s personal lawyer Bob Bauer, and White House counsel Stuart F. Delery and Richard Sauber, were part of at “tight circle” involved in discussions on how to deal with the matter.

    More via The Times,

    Details about the documents — where they were found, what they are about, where they came from — remain elusive more than 10 days after their existence was first made public by CBS News.

    The White House has refused to explain why it took nearly six weeks after the initial discovery of documents to search the president’s home in Wilmington, Del., where a second batch was found on Dec. 20. And it has not said why personal lawyers for the president who do not have security clearances were the ones conducting the searches, but people close to the case said that was done with the approval of the Justice Department.

    …

    Once the discovery of the original batch of documents was revealed, Ms. Dunn was adamant that the White House should keep the public information flow to a trickle and focus instead on how different Mr. Biden’s case was from the broader investigation into his predecessor, according to people familiar with the discussions.

    Ms. Dunn also stressed the need to underscore the differences between Mr. Biden’s cooperation with the archives and Justice Department and Mr. Trump’s defiance.

    Impeachment when?

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 17:00

  • Biden Vs Trump Document Controversies Indicate Transparency Gap
    Biden Vs Trump Document Controversies Indicate Transparency Gap

    Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The government has been less than transparent with Americans regarding the classified documents scandal of President Joe Biden, and particularly on the background of the classified documents scandal of former President Donald Trump.

    U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland is joined by U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois John Lausch during a news conference at the Justice Department to announce the appointment of a special counsel to investigate the discovery of classified documents held by President Joe Biden at an office and his home, in Washington on Jan. 12, 2023. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

    While in Trump’s case, the public was treated to frequent updates through leaks to media and official statements, the Biden case had been kept under wraps for more than two months and then disclosed in stages.

    When staff of the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) picked up 15 boxes of presidential records from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Florida residence in mid-January 2022, The Washington Post reported it three weeks later and the NARA confirmed the story that same day, Feb. 7, 2022, adding a 150-word quote from then-Archivist David Ferriero explaining that “the Presidential Records Act is critical to our democracy.”

    About a week later, NARA revealed in response to a congressional inquiry that classified material was found in the boxes and the matter had been communicated to the Department of Justice (DOJ). In April, The Washington Post reported the DOJ was investigating the matter and later that month C-SPAN released an interview with Ferriero during which he confirmed the existence of the investigation.

    In the Biden case, when NARA was alerted on Nov. 2 that classified documents were found in Biden’s office at the Penn Biden Center, where he sparsely lectured and gave speeches from 2017 to 2019, there were no leaks forthcoming. In fact, NARA has yet to issue a single press release on the Biden case.

    The story was first leaked to CBS News and reported on Jan. 9 with an on-record confirmation by Richard Sauber, special counsel to Biden.

    The CBS report came a day after Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) pledged in a Mark Levin interview that his oversight committee will question NARA on its handling of the Trump documents case and threatened to withhold the agency’s funding to force compliance with information requests.

    In a Jan. 10 letter to NARA, Comer said its “inconsistent treatment of recovering classified records held by former President Trump and President Biden raises questions about political bias at the agency.”

    NARA responded a week later, saying it “treats all of its communications with the White House, DOJ, and the representatives of the former Presidents (and Vice Presidents) as presumptively confidential” and “for this reason, NARA did not affirmatively discuss or disclose to our oversight committees or to the public our activities concerning the return to our custody of either the Biden Vice Presidential records or the Trump Presidential records, or our referral of both matters to DOJ because we found classified information.”

    The agency started to respond to congressional inquiries on the matters “only when those topics were subsequently reported publicly in the press.”

    “Our actions and responses with respect to both of these matters have been entirely consistent and without any political bias,” it said (pdf).

    The DOJ was alerted by NARA about the Biden documents on Nov. 4, but the FBI didn’t start to look into the matter until Nov. 9, the day after the midterm elections.

    The White House confirmed the initial story the day it was released, but didn’t disclose for another three days that another batch of classified documents were found in Biden’s garage, even though the DOJ was informed by Biden’s lawyers on Dec. 20.

    The government response indicates that Biden’s pre-election promises of a transparent administration have fallen short, according to investigative journalist John Solomon.

    “Was this an act of defiance on his promise of transparency?” he asked, noting that it appears that “the president says he wants to be transparent, but he doesn’t always deliver on the promise when things are unflattering to him or his presidency.”

    Solomon argued that the DOJ should have been more forthcoming about the Biden documents issue, especially since Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed a special counsel to oversee the Trump documents investigation on Nov. 18, when his department was already probing the Biden documents case.

    “They knew when they made that announcement that the current President has similar issues and they chose to keep it from us,” Solomon told The Epoch Times.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 16:30

  • India Overtakes China As World's Most Populous Nation
    India Overtakes China As World’s Most Populous Nation

    At this point, what we have been speculating about for months looks to be official: India has already passed China as the world’s most populous nation. 

    Citing estimates from the World Population Review, an independent organization focused on census and demographics, India’s population was marked at 1.417 billion as of end 2022. This marks 5 million more than the 1.412 billion people reported by China. according to reporting by Bloomberg and the SCMP. 

    Just hours ago, we noted that the overtaking of China seemed inevitable:

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    China’s figure marks the first population decline for the country since the 1960s. 

    Half the population is under the age of 30 in India, the report notes, meaning that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will need to keep a sharp focus on job creation in order to harness the country’s labor/production capacity. Modi is due to seek re-election by May 2024, the report notes. 

    Nearly 800 million people “still rely on free food rations from the government”, however. And estimates for where the country’s population is at now range from 1.423 billion to 1.428 billion – a sign that the growth in India is slated to continue. 

    Meanwhile, Bloomberg Economist Eric Zhu has called China’s reduction in population a “growth crushing headwind”. The population in China fell by 850,000 in 2022. 

    Recall, back in October 2022, we noted that India was in the running to overtake China. At the time, using the latest data available from the United Nations, Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley looked at which countries had the largest share of the planet’s eight billion people.

    We wrote then: “Once India becomes the world’s largest country, it will likely remain so for many decades in the future, peaking in the 2060s (unless there are substantial changes in projected growth rates). India’s peak population will stand at around 1.7 billion people.”

    “The world’s population is expected to peak later, around the 2080s. Humanity’s peak population is expected to be about 10.5 billon,” we concluded. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 16:00

  • How Can We Restore Freedom And Sound Money In The US & UK? Some Ideas…
    How Can We Restore Freedom And Sound Money In The US & UK? Some Ideas…

    Authored by Patrick Barron via The Mises Institute,

    The purpose of this essay is not to convince the reader of the necessity for change. It is to present some commonsense policy changes to attempt to mitigate the economic harm that has been done to Western economies, especially to the United States and the United Kingdom, since the end of World War II.

    Please watch Godfrey Bloom and Alasdair Macleod’s recent interview with Sonia Poulton.

    The video describes the current financial and reputational weaknesses of the West. For a more in-depth analysis of the financial threat to the West, please read any of Alasdair Macleod’s weekly essays from the past few months.

    In the Poulton interview, Macleod ably describes the financial implications of the West’s deindustrialization policies and currency debasement. Bloom describes the reputational damage stemming from the West’s “sanctions” against Russia plus the consequences of deindustrialization due to the foolish pursuit of a Green New Deal.

    This essay’s goal is not to convince the reader of the seriousness of the current situation, which Bloom and Macleod do so well, but rather to present policies that must be changed to stop the destruction of the West’s economies and reverse the harm to their reputations. Western nations need to build a reputation for honesty, fair dealing, and adherence to the rule of law in the international arena by embracing free trade and neutrality.

    There is no need to point out that in the US and the UK, none of the policy changes listed below will be enacted by either of the two main political parties in their current state. Either one of the leading parties in each country must change leadership or a third party must emerge. There is precedence in both America and Britain for the emergence of a new party. In the mid-1850s, America’s Whig Party was thrown on the scrap heap of history when it was supplanted by the antislavery Republican Party. In the first half of the twentieth century, the Labour Party supplanted Britain’s Liberal Party. It has happened before, and it can happen again.

    The following “policy imperatives” assume that such internal change has occurred and that the new ruling party must mitigate and eventually reverse the damage done by its predecessors over several years. The task will not be easy, nor will it be painless, but it must be done.

    Policy Imperatives

    1. Drastically cut government spending. The purchasing power of the dollar and the pound is being steadily weakened by the Treasury’s need to borrow more money than taxes and the bond markets will offset. Currently the central banks “buy” the excess debt with money created out of thin air. This leads inevitably to more money chasing fewer goods, which results in higher prices and the boom/bust credit cycle, among other economic damages.

    2. Abolish the so-called Green New Deal, which is based upon the schlock science surrounding “climate change.” The Western economies not only must end the destruction of their industrial economies, but they must revive the entrepreneurial spirit in individuals by eliminating regulations on business activity that does not directly cause real harm to people. For example, the West must stop mandating costly and time-consuming environmental impact studies, which elevate nonhuman life above human life. The US should abolish the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), and the UK should abolish the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). Both countries have well-established common-law precedents that protect and compensate workersfor on-the-job injuries.

    3. Reinstitute the gold standard. The dollar and the pound must be seen as proxies for real money; i.e., gold. This means that currency cannot be issued unless the central bank has gold with which to back it. There is a long list of economic benefits to be derived from a stable currency, but perhaps the most important benefit is spending discipline. The government’s myriad spending orgies will face real-time discipline from the taxpayers and the markets.

    4. House the nation’s gold, which is used to back its currency, in a neutral and internationally supervised place—for example, Switzerland—that will redeem the nation’s currency for gold upon demand. The government must not be allowed to suspend currency redemption. Remember, gold is money and all else is credit. If a nation’s credit is in question—i.e., the market fears that there is insufficient gold to redeem all the currency or that the government may suspend redemption—then demand to hold its currency for settlement purposes will drop or even evaporate completely.

    5. Return stolen property to its rightful owners. Theft is a violation of law at every level. The Western powers confiscated Russian property as part of the so-called sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This insult to justice must end. Neither country has declared war on Russia, yet the sanctions are well-known tools of war. Ending sanctions is both a moral and an economic issue. If the world believes that its property can be seized for some act for which a country’s government disapproves, international trade of all varieties will fall drastically for such a country and become difficult to recover. Who in the world can trust such a country again?

    6. Adopt a noninterventionist foreign policy. The world is full of controversies that often lead nations to war. Unless their interests are directly threatened, the US and the UK must not intervene in foreign disputes but remain neutral, even if these disputes lead friendly foreign nations to war. There is no way that the Western powers can honestly adjudicate these never-ending disputes. The West should encourage diplomacy rather than war making. Otherwise, keep out.

    Conclusion

    The Western world has violated international norms of fair dealing to the point that its reputation is nearing long-term destruction. The West’s currencies are poised to fall in value due to unprecedented money printing over several decades. Western governments foolishly believe that there is nothing that the rest of the world can do. They believe that the rest of the world must kowtow to whatever international norms the US and the UK dictate.

    But they are horribly wrong. The rest of the world is moving beyond dollar hegemony and beyond the reach of US and UK sanctions. It is building a new reserve currency for settlement of international trade. The non-Western world is much larger than the West in terms of population and commodities. More importantly, the non-Western world is willing to exploit its commodities for the benefit of its citizens, whereas the West has placed its commodities off limits due to its belief in and commitment to schlock environmental science that posits impending environmental doom.

    The process can be reversed, but such a reversal requires new leadership. Nothing can be done unless new leaders can change policy. The West does not need to “rule the world” in order to be peaceful and prosperous.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 15:30

  • Go Woke, Get Broke: Vox Fires 7% Of Staff; Vice's Valuation Plunges
    Go Woke, Get Broke: Vox Fires 7% Of Staff; Vice’s Valuation Plunges

    It’s a terrible time for America’s liberal media – with companies laying off, implementing hiring freezes, and other cost-cutting measures. Some media companies have even collapsed in valuation. Many are blaming increasing macroeconomic uncertainty that has crushed advertising revenues. 

    A wave of recent layoffs has hit media companies, including CNN, Buzzfeed, Paramount Global (the parent to CBS, MTV, VH1), The Walt Disney Company, Comcast, Roku, Morning Brew, Gannett (parent company to USA Today), and many more in the past year. 

    Add Vox Media, which owns brands like The Verge, SB Nation, and New York magazine, to the growing list of media layoffs. 

    Axios obtained an internal memo from CEO Jim Bankoff to staff about reducing headcount by 7%. About 1,900 people work for the company, which equates to about 133 layoffs. 

    Bankoff noted that the headcount reduction would impact teams across revenue, editorial, operations, and core services. 

    “While we are not expecting further layoffs at this time, we will continue to assess our outlook, keep a tight control on expenses and consider implementing other cost savings measures as needed,” he said, adding layoffs were a last resort.

    The move was to address the coming downturn in the economy.  

    Besides layoffs and other cost measures, media company valuations have plunged. 

    For instance, Vice Media is putting itself up for sale (again) at around a billion-dollar valuation, according to CNBC, citing people familiar with the talks.

    Today’s number is far from the $5.7 billion valuation in 2017. 

    CNBC previously reported Vice hired financial advisors to seek a sale.

    One of Vice’s lenders, Fortress Investment Group, is pushing for a sale. 

    Meanwhile, Buzzfeed’s SPAC is only getting worse — with a current market cap of $129 million — down from more than a billion dollars a year ago. 

    America’s largest digital media companies are in dire straits. Maybe some of them are in these precarious situations because they embraced liberal ideology and suffered massive viewership losses. We all know CNN is learning that the hard way. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 15:00

  • Davos 2023: Whistling Past The Great Reset's Graveyard
    Davos 2023: Whistling Past The Great Reset’s Graveyard

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

    In November 2021 I wrote a piece entitled “Have We Finally Reached Peak Davos?” This article was scarily spot on. When you’ve written as much as I have over the past five years, however, it’s easy to look back and point at how prescient you were.

    Even if you’ve gotten a whole lotta stuff wrong, which I have.

    That particular article, though, was nearly point-for-point correct in assessing the state of The Davos Crowd’s Great Reset project.

    I wrote a Twitter thread about this the other day to pound the next few nails in Davos’ coffin before the opening of this year’s convocation of clueless globalists.

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    In this business the goal isn’t to get everything right but to be right more often than you’re wrong while spurring debate and conversation. This is how we crowdsource something close to the truth and/or steelman our own arguments in an endless quest for process improvement.

    I wrote about that process recently and why it’s important to identify those who are still on that journey, those who are starting it, and those who are stuck in the morass of their own preconceptions.

    Embrace and encourage the first two groups and question the ethics of those in the last.

    Because in 2023 the mission is beginning to shift, from trying to forecast what these Cantillionaire midwits will do next to further assisting people in improving their data parsing abilities.

    The more people that parse the Davos bullshit in real time, the less time they spend abreacting to it and using that saved time more productively to thwart Davos‘ plans.

    So here we are as Davos 2023 winds down and it’s pretty obvious, watching the proceedings, that their entire edifice built on a crude admixture of psychopathy and hubris is tumbling down.

    And it’s not only because more of us can see them for what they are, cheap communists in expensive suits, but because there are stark divisions forming within their own ranks.

    The problem, however, for most of the committed Davosians is that they still live in the wine-and-cheese-filled amniotic sack of this Swiss Alps version of Oz. They don’t see the gathering storm barreling down the yellow brick road as anything more threatening than a single mosquito is to a cow.

    As anyone who has lived in central Florida or studied its cattle industry knows, a few million mosquitos can exsanguinate a cow in a matter of days.

    So, watching the proceedings at this year’s Davos was fascinating because, for the first time, the sheen was gone. Too many people were seeing the walls of the echo chamber for what they were; old, shabby, and drafty rather than having the veneer of wisdom that comes with age.

    Davos had come out from behind the curtain willingly to declare themselves the saviors of humanity through their Fuhrer’s nutty ideas about transhumanism, 15-minute cities, eating bugs, and renting your life from a central authority.

    And it was easy to build a counter-narrative to this insanity that permeated into the zeitgeist by just pointing your finger and laughing at them.

    If you want proof of just how far the Davos idea has traveled in the five years since I first called them “The Davos Crowd” the performance of this tweet of mine from January 3rd should do it.

    My average tweet gets around 5000-8000 impressions, maybe 30-40 retweets, and a couple hundred likes.

    I’m really pants at Twitter.

    This thing is literally the first tweet of mine in years to ‘go viral,’ and shows no signs of letting up. I’m not patting myself on the back here, but rather pointing out what something like this represents in my little corner of the internet.

    Hatred of Davos has broken containment.

    The anxiety and fear these men have promulgated is now deeply embedded in people because it feels closer to the truth than what they were previously presented. With a relatively free Twitter these days, the opportunity for more containment breaks like this are rising exponentially.

    And that is a very good thing.

    Davos likes to talk in terms of the inevitability of their forecasted future. But that’s just a front. Psychopaths always double down in the face of adversity.

    But I’ve noted a certain sense of panic and/or desperation from a lot of Davos’ lieutenants, like Blackrock’s Larry Fink complaining about how mean we all are opposing ESG or NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg exhorting everyone that more weapons to fund Ukraine’s war is the path to peace.

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    Note the use of “the” versus “a” in that sentence. When someone is telling you there is only one path forward, they are issuing an ultimatum… they are also lying through their teeth.

    One of “the” paths to peace in Ukraine is in negotiating honestly with Russia. Ukrainian President and Schwab disciple Zelenskyy is out there saying nuttier things by the day, like now that he thinks Putin is dead while the US floats the idea of Ukraine retaking Crimea.

    The fact that there has been not even a reasonable offer put on the table to the Russians to this point tells you that this war is policy and not an unfortunate happenstance of Russian belligerence.

    But watch the video carefully and note the desperation on display from Stoltenberg. He knows the war isn’t going well for NATO. He knows that if NATO fails here he and all of this corporatist cronies personally lose their seat at the gravy train.

    He also knows he will be sacrificed on the globalists’ altar if he fails to deliver in Ukraine. He’s Admiral Piett, swallowing nervously, to Soros’ Darth Vader.

    Last year at Davos 2022 it was Soros delivering the rebuttal to Henry Kissinger’s call for negotiations. This Octogenarian clash of ideology and realpolitik was a kind of Rubicon crossing for all things Davos.

    {And I definitely got a lot of things wrong in the article I wrote about that, if you’re keeping score.}

    By ignoring Kissinger’s pragmatism and embracing Soros’ belligerence Davos revealed itself as an out-of-touch echo chamber whose edicts are hurtling the world towards a terrible conflict, making their enemies’ job opposing them that much easier.

    You know Soros has won the argument within Davos because they trotted out ol’ Henry to reverse himself on negotiations and embrace war which has all the earmarks of a classic communist struggle session.

    I guess that’s why Soros announced to the world he didn’t need to go to Davos this year but would be at the Munich Security Conference next month to declare WWIII.

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    So, where are we now?

    We’re well past the point of Peak Davos that’s for sure. When the guest list for this year was leaked I found it fascinating that many who’ve skipped it in the past would be there – US bank CEOs like JP Morgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon. There were just as many who have gone previously to plead for sanity – Putin and Xi Jinping — didn’t even phone it in.

    It has been a fascinating week of announcements and headlines that paint a very ugly picture for Davos’ future. When you take them (and their timing) into full context it should be obvious where this is headed.

    Here’s a partial list of the headlines from this week:

    But the clincher is this headline from The Guardian.

    Most of these would be interesting at any time but that they all occurred while Davos 2023 was happening is mind-boggling. And to think that so many of the attendees there are still walking around as if the future was already written in their favor is equally mind-boggling.

    I’m not about to speculate further about what’s really going on there except to say that if feels like something has fundamentally changed, likely for the better. Is Schwab on his way out after ruling the WEF for 52 years?

    Is my theory that the NY Boys and others have finally had enough of the fart-sniffing eggheads correct and they showed up with a new set of rules to lay down?

    Is that why Bill Gates wasn’t there?

    Is that why the sycophantic Western press are running stories now that would never have seen the light of day if Schwab was still calling the shots?

    Look, I’m not naïve, I know that Davos is a front for a bigger, older and deeper group of power brokers. Real bankers don’t have Wikipedia pages.

    If Larry Fink is a lieutenant then Schwab is just a Colonel and it’s possible he’s being thrown under the bus now to protect the Generals.

    But why do the Generals feel the need to cut bait now? As difficult as it is to believe, they may just be losing.

    Sometimes things aren’t more complicated than they seem.

    They took their shot and missed.

    There will be no panopticon or cyber-pandemic. We’ll still drive normal cars, eat red meat, and live in homes with a modicum of privacy. Whether we avoid WWIII is a different story.

    Maybe the depression we all fear is on the horizon has already been here for fifteen years and this is as bad as it gets. No mushroom clouds, no Grand Army of the Republic. Just a bunch of tired old inbred losers finally running out of runway and crashing into the ditch rather than flying off into the sunset.

    They don’t believe their done yet. It is that gulf between their perception of potency and the reality of their impotence that will determine the rest of this horror show. Soros and his neocon crazies will go to Munich and push for more war.

    They just might get it. Then again they may get everything they wished for… good and hard.

    Davos may be ending in 2023, but the after-effects of their insanity will be with us for years.

    *  *  *

    Join My Patreon if you like whistling

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 14:30

  • US Designates Wagner Group "Transnational Criminal Organization" – Cites Ties With North Korea
    US Designates Wagner Group “Transnational Criminal Organization” – Cites Ties With North Korea

    After becoming clear that the private Russian military firm Wager Group – whose founder has direct ties to President Putin – is helping to lead the major offensive in the Soledar and Bakhmut areas in eastern Ukraine, the Biden administration on Friday unveiled new sanctions against the group.

    National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Friday announced Wagner is now designated a “significant Transnational Criminal Organization” which allows the US to block its access to any US-produced items or technology. It further leaves open the potential for US Commerce to go after its foreign assets as a legally dubbed criminal enterprise. “It will broaden the network of nations and institutions that will be able to stop doing business with Wagner,” Kirby said of the new action at a White House press briefing.

    And in an interesting twist, the White House says it has evidence that Wagner is being directly supplied by North Korea. While the Russia-Pyongyang connection has been raised by the US since the summer, this is the first time the US administration has sought to present anything in the way of evidence. 

    US government satellite photos

    Kirby presented to reporters what he said is photographic evidence of rail cars traveling from Russian to North Korea on November 18. He alleged that shipping containers were loaded with weaponry or ammo and were sent back to Russia the next day.

    “We do expect that it will continue to receive North Korean weapon systems,” Kirby asserted. “We obviously condemn North Korea’s actions and we urge North Korea to cease these deliveries to Wagner immediately and we are going further by taking action against Wagner itself.”

    The White House further said it will work with the UN Security Council to enforce violations against Wagner, and further took the information on Pyongyang’s ties to Wagner to the UN Security Council Sanctions Committee. Kirby previewed that more sanctions are coming next week.

    Russia and North Korea share a small sliver of border, a little over 10 miles long:

    “There are around 50,000 Wagner Group fighters currently deployed to Ukraine, according to Kirby, including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts,” CNN reported after the briefing.

    Kirby additionally pointed out that “Wagner is becoming a rival power center to the Russian military and other Russian ministries.” He highlighted Russian defense officials’ expressions of reservations about Wagner’s tactics like recruiting from Russian prisons, and in return promising freedom based on months in action in Ukraine.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/21/2023 – 14:00

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Jan 21

Today’s News 21st January 2023

  • The Need For COVID Reparations
    The Need For COVID Reparations

    Authored by Adam Coleman via The Epoch Times,

    I’m no different from many Americans who still possess anger at how people were mistreated for questioning narratives, forced into struggling economic positions, and repeatedly lied to about the efficacy of lockdowns and vaccines by the most powerful people and institutions in the world.

    I still possess animosity toward the formerly respectable so-called experts who’ve become compromised by their political biases and the fear of losing their high status in society if they were to divorce from the narrative and marry objectivity. How can I trust again a media apparatus that guilted an entire population of people into getting an experimental vaccine while simultaneously being sponsored by Big Pharma?

    We all want a way to move forward, because anger only breeds more anger, not forgiveness. But it’s also not advisable for us to gloss over the damage that was done to appease the conscience of the people who are now remorseful for their participation in perpetuating falsehoods and who cheered on the social demise of dissenters.

    Despite the call for a blanket amnesty discussed in the Atlantic’s op-ed titled “Let’s declare a pandemic amnesty,” I believe we should strive for something that’s more succinct in providing a form of justice that would relieve much of the bitterness that we’ve been carrying for years: COVID reparations.

    Often when we discuss reparations, it’s with the concept of throwing an arbitrary amount of cash at people in hopes that it satisfies enough of them in the process, but what I’m advocating for is a reparation that’s socially restorative, fair, and directly benefits the people who were impacted by the injustice.

    First, there needs to be a satisfactory acknowledgment of guilt and an apology directly aimed at the American public who were unjustly harmed. For example, there needs to be a recognition of the people who are vaccine injured, and while they’re the minority, their situations are disregarded by people, including medical professionals, who continue to cling to the fallacy that COVID-19 vaccines provide no side effects.

    There needs to be a national recognition of the mental damage inflicted upon our children due to seemingly indefinite isolation because of extended lockdowns and school closures, causing youth suicide attempts to soar.

    According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in 2020, the proportion of mental health-related emergency department visits among adolescents aged 12–17 years increased by 31 percent compared with 2019. From Feb. 21 to March 20, 2021, emergency department visits due to suspected suicide attempts were 50.6 percent higher among girls aged 12–17 years than during the same period in 2019.

    You can’t fix what you don’t acknowledge, and we can’t move forward without public acknowledgment of all the negative consequences that stemmed from an overreaching and politically blinded governmental apparatus and how they encouraged the private sector to mimic their approach.

    There should be restitution for the citizens who were forced out of their jobs and other opportunities for refusing to get vaccinated, because this action was motivated by the falsehood of the vaccination stopping the spread, which was overtly stated by many bureaucratic figures, including the CDC Director Rochelle Walensky.

    In cities such as New York City, people, like my wife, were forced into an unfair predicament of taking a vaccine that they weren’t fully comfortable being injected with or losing their income, all based on the falsehood of it being the extinguisher of the spread of this virus.

    As part of the restitution, every employee who was negatively affected by this should be allowed their positions back or given financial severance compensation directly from their employer, and there should be the immediate reenlistment of military members who were forced out due to this refusal.

    Any small business owners who were forced out of business while corporate conglomerates like Amazon, Target, and Walmart were permitted carte blanch operational status should be allowed to file lawsuits against their local government that used edict to choose the economic winners and losers.

    Lastly, there should be guarantees of non-repetition by removing all unelected bureaucratic figureheads who perpetuated vaccine falsehoods on behalf of Big Pharma, advocated for lockdowns without regard for our economic survival or impact on our children’s health, and fostered an environment where questioning medical decisions for yourself made you a dissident instead of normal.

    Laws should be created to prevent the federal government from providing blanket immunity from lawsuits to pharmaceutical companies, because those companies will undoubtedly put more emphasis on the speed of production and profits over ethics and safety for the American public.

    There are countless actions that could be made to show actual repentance for the irreverence shown toward the American public, but there needs to be conscious action alongside the rhetoric of progressing forward.

    We haven’t truly learned the lessons from our recent mistakes if we’re willing to continue to pretend that the wounds that were created by our overzealousness aren’t still infected with unresolved acrimony.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 23:40

  • Watch: Boston Dynamics' Creepy Humanoid Robot Learns More Tricks
    Watch: Boston Dynamics’ Creepy Humanoid Robot Learns More Tricks

    Boston Dynamics’ latest video of its six-foot-tall bipedal humanoid, Atlas, shows it has acquired new skills that enable it to operate in complex terrain.

    Boston Dynamics’ Atlas team, led by Scott Kuindersma, told The Verge that the video is “meant to communicate an expansion of the research we’re doing on Atlas.” 

    The video shows Atlas operating autonomously, working in a makeshift construction site. A worker asks the bipedal robot for his tool bag while high up on a scaffold. The robot retrieves the bag and successfully delivers the bag to the worker. 

    “We’re not just thinking about how to make the robot move dynamically through its environment, like we did in Parkour and Dance.

    “Now, we’re starting to put Atlas to work and think about how the robot should be able to perceive and manipulate objects in its environment,” said Kuindersma. 

    Since Hyundai Motor Group acquired a controlling interest in Boston Dynamics for $1.1 billion in 2021, there’s been a notable change in messaging from the robotics company that appears to push these bipedal robots closer to commercialization for real-world applications. 

    What bothers us is the military-industrial complex’s dream of humanoid warfighters could be realized via Atlas.  

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 23:20

  • Escobar: Gold-Backed Currencies To Replace US Dollar In Global South
    Escobar: Gold-Backed Currencies To Replace US Dollar In Global South

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

    The adoption of commodity-backed currencies by the Global South could upend the US dollar’s dominance and level the playing field in international trade…

    Let’s start with three interconnected multipolar-driven facts.

    First: One of the key take-aways from the World Economic Forum annual shindig in Davos, Switzerland is when Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan, on a panel on “Saudi Arabia’s Transformation,” made it clear that Riyadh “will consider trading in currencies other than the US dollar.”

    So is the petroyuan finally at hand? Possibly, but Al-Jadaan wisely opted for careful hedging:

    “We enjoy a very strategic relationship with China and we enjoy that same strategic relationship with other nations including the US and we want to develop that with Europe and other countries.”

    Second: The Central Banks of Iran and Russia are studying the adoption of a “stable coin” for foreign trade settlements, replacing the US dollar, the ruble and the rial.

    The crypto crowd is already up in arms, mulling the pros and cons of a gold-backed central bank digital currency (CBDC) for trade that will be in fact impervious to the weaponized US dollar.

    A gold-backed digital currency

    The really attractive issue here is that this gold-backed digital currency would be particularly effective in the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) of Astrakhan, in the Caspian Sea.

    Astrakhan is the key Russian port participating in the International North South Transportation Corridor (INTSC), with Russia processing cargo travelling across Iran in merchant ships all the way to West Asia, Africa, the Indian Ocean and South Asia.

    The success of the INSTC – progressively tied to a gold-backed CBDC – will largely hinge on whether scores of Asian, West Asian and African nations refuse to apply US-dictated sanctions on both Russia and Iran.

    As it stands, exports are mostly energy and agricultural products; Iranian companies are the third largest importer of Russian grain. Next will be turbines, polymers, medical equipment, and car parts. Only the Russia-Iran section of the INSTC represents a $25 billion business.

    And then there’s the crucial energy angle of INSTC – whose main players are the Russia-Iran-India triad.

    India’s purchases of Russian crude have increased year-by-year by a whopping factor of 33. India is the world’s third largest importer of oil; in December, it received 1.2 million barrels from Russia, which for several months now is positioned ahead of Iraq and Saudi Arabia as Delhi’s top supplier.

    ‘A fairer payment system’

    Third: South Africa holds this year’s rotating BRICS presidency. And this year will mark the start of BRICS+ expansion, with candidates ranging from Algeria, Iran and Argentina to Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

    South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor has just confirmed that the BRICS do want to find a way to bypass the US dollar and thus create “a fairer payment system not skewed toward wealthier countries.”

    For years now, Yaroslav Lissovolik, head of the analytical department of Russian Sberbank’s corporate and investment business has been a proponent of closer BRICS integration and the adoption of a BRICS reserve currency.

    Lissovolik reminds us that the first proposal “to create a new reserve currency based on a basket of currencies of BRICS countries was formulated by the Valdai Club back in 2018.”

    Are you ready for the R5?

    The original idea revolved around a currency basket similar to the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) model, composed of the national currencies of BRICS members – and then, further on down the road, other currencies of the expanded BRICS+ circle.

    Lissovolik explains that choosing BRICS national currencies made sense because “these were among the most liquid currencies across emerging markets. The name for the new reserve currency — R5 or R5+ — was based on the first letters of the BRICS currencies all of which begin with the letter R (real, ruble, rupee, renminbi, rand).”

    So BRICS already have a platform for their in-depth deliberations in 2023. As Lissovolik notes, “in the longer run, the R5 BRICS currency could start to perform the role of settlements/payments as well as the store of value/reserves for the central banks of emerging market economies.”

    It is virtually certain that the Chinese yuan will be prominent right from the start, taking advantage of its “already advanced reserve status.”

    Potential candidates that could become part of the R5+ currency basket include the Singapore dollar and the UAE’s dirham.

    Quite diplomatically, Lissovolik maintains that, “the R5 project can thus become one of the most important contributions of emerging markets to building a more secure international financial system.”

    The R5, or R5+ project does intersect with what is being designed at the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), led by the Macro-Economics Minister of the Eurasia Economic Commission, Sergey Glazyev.

    A new gold standard

    In Golden Ruble 3.0 , his most recent paper, Glazyev makes a direct reference to two by now notorious reports by Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar, formerly of the IMF, US Department of Treasury, and New York Federal Reserve: War and Commodity Encumbrance (December 27) and War and Currency Statecraft (December 29).

    Pozsar is a staunch supporter of a Bretton Woods III – an idea that has been getting enormous traction among the Fed-skeptical crowd.

    What’s quite intriguing is that the American Pozsar now directly quotes Russia’s Glazyev, and vice-versa, implying a fascinating convergence of their ideas.

    Let’s start with Glazyev’s emphasis on the importance of gold. He notes the current accumulation of multibillion-dollar cash balances on the accounts of Russian exporters in “soft” currencies in the banks of Russia’s main foreign economic partners: EAEU nations, China, India, Iran, Turkey, and the UAE.

    He then proceeds to explain how gold can be a unique tool to fight western sanctions if prices of oil and gas, food and fertilizers, metals and solid minerals are recalculated:

    “Fixing the price of oil in gold at the level of 2 barrels per 1g will give a second increase in the price of gold in dollars, calculated Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar. This would be an adequate response to the ‘price ceilings’ introduced by the west – a kind of ‘floor,’ a solid foundation. And India and China can take the place of global commodity traders instead of Glencore or Trafigura.”

    So here we see Glazyev and Pozsar converging. Quite a few major players in New York will be amazed.

    Glazyev then lays down the road toward Gold Ruble 3.0. The first gold standard was lobbied by the Rothschilds in the 19th century, which “gave them the opportunity to subordinate continental Europe to the British financial system through gold loans.” Golden Ruble 1.0, writes Glazyev, “provided the process of capitalist accumulation.”

    Golden Ruble 2.0, after Bretton Woods, “ensured a rapid economic recovery after the war.” But then the “reformer Khrushchev canceled the peg of the ruble to gold, carrying out monetary reform in 1961 with the actual devaluation of the ruble by 2.5 times, forming conditions for the subsequent transformation of the country [Russia] into a “raw material appendage of the Western financial system.”

    What Glazyev proposes now is for Russia to boost gold mining to as much as 3 percent of GDP: the basis for fast growth of the entire commodity sector (30 percent of Russian GDP). With the country becoming a world leader in gold production, it gets “a strong ruble, a strong budget and a strong economy.”

    All Global South eggs in one basket

    Meanwhile, at the heart of the EAEU discussions, Glazyev seems to be designing a new currency not only based on gold, but partly based on the oil and natural gas reserves of participating countries.

    Pozsar seems to consider this potentially inflationary: it could be if it results in some excesses, considering the new currency would be linked to such a large base.

    Off the record, New York banking sources admit the US dollar would be “wiped out, since it is a valueless fiat currency, should Sergey Glazyev link the new currency to gold. The reason is that the Bretton Woods system no longer has a gold base and has no intrinsic value, like the FTX crypto currency. Sergey’s plan also linking the currency to oil and natural gas seems to be a winner.”

    So in fact Glazyev may be creating the whole currency structure for what Pozsar called, half in jest, the “G7 of the East”: the current 5 BRICS plus the next 2 which will be the first new members of BRICS+.

    Both Glazyev and Pozsar know better than anyone that when Bretton Woods was created the US possessed most of Central Bank gold and controlled half the world’s GDP. This was the basis for the US to take over the whole global financial system.

    Now vast swathes of the non-western world are paying close attention to Glazyev and the drive towards a new non-US dollar currency, complete with a new gold standard which would in time totally replace the US dollar.

    Pozsar completely understood how Glazyev is pursuing a formula featuring a basket of currencies (as Lissovolik suggested). As much as he understood the groundbreaking drive towards the petroyuan. He describes the industrial ramifications thus:

    “Since as we have just said Russia, Iran, and Venezuela account for about 40 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, and each of them are currently selling oil to China for renminbi at a steep discount, we find BASF’s decision to permanently downsize its operations at its main plant in Ludwigshafen and instead shift its chemical operations to China was motivated by the fact that China is securing energy at discounts, not markups like Europe.”

    The race to replace the dollar

    One key takeaway is that energy-intensive major industries are going to be moving to China. Beijing has become a big exporter of Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe, while India has become a big exporter of Russian oil and refined products such as diesel – also to Europe. Both China and India – BRICS members – buy below market price from fellow BRICS member Russia and resell to Europe with a hefty profit. Sanctions? What sanctions?

    Meanwhile, the race to constitute the new currency basket for a new monetary unit is on. This long-distance dialogue between Glazyev and Pozsar will become even more fascinating, as Glazyev will be trying to find a solution to what Pozsar has stated: tapping of natural resources for the creation of the new currency could be inflationary if money supply is increased too quickly.

    All that is happening as Ukraine – a huge chasm at a critical junction of the New Silk Road blocking off Europe from Russia/China – slowly but surely disappears into a black void. The Empire may have gobbled up Europe for now, but what really matters geoeconomically, is how the absolute majority of the Global South is deciding to commit to the Russia/China-led block.

    Economic dominance of BRICS+ may be no more than 7 years away – whatever toxicities may be concocted by that large, dysfunctional nuclear rogue state on the other side of the Atlantic. But first, let’s get that new currency going.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 23:00

  • China Now Grows More Corn Than Rice
    China Now Grows More Corn Than Rice

    Chinese and other Asian cuisines are highly associated with the consumption of rice as a part of many meals. It may therefore come as a surprise that China today is actually producing more corn than rice.

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, in 2021, the country primary cereal production consisted of 43 percent corn and 34 percent rice, as data from the Food and Agriculture Organization shows. 

    Infographic: China Now Grows More Corn Than Rice | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    This doesn’t mean that Chinese people are necessarily eating a lot more corn but rather that their livestock is hungry for the grain as much as some of their vehicles and machines are to consume corn in the form of ethanol fuel.

    Corn does make its way into Chinese processed foodstuffs in the form of high-fructose corn syrup and starch, however, according to an article by University of North Carolina professor Peter A. Coclanis in Aeon.

    According to Coclanis, corn is among the most versatile grains in the world while being relatively easy to grow, supporting its success in China as the country’s ever-growing middle class is upping its meat consumption.

    Additionally, China is importing at times huge quantities of corn from the United States – the world’s biggest producer – in order to supply its massive livestock industry.

    In the U.S., corn is now making up 85 percent of primary cereal production, up from 62 percent in 1981. Another country with a prolific lifestock industry, Brazil, has seen an increase from 66 percent to 79 percent over the same time period.

    2012 was the first year when China grew more corn that rice. In other Asian countries, rice still dominates cereal production. In 2021, it made up more than 90 percent of cereal crops in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Malaysia, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam and upwards of 85 percent in Japan, Myanmar and Thailand. India and Nepal grow a more diverse bunch of grains (also reflected in their cuisines), with rice only making up half of cereal crops and wheat another 20-30 percent.

    In Asia as a whole, 48 percent of primary cereal production was made up of rice in 2021, down from 57 percent in 2018. Over the same time period, the prevalence of corn doubled from approximately 13 percent to around 26 percent.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 22:40

  • SHOT Show Exhibitors Promote Gun Safety, Suicide Prevention
    SHOT Show Exhibitors Promote Gun Safety, Suicide Prevention

    Authored by Michael Clements via The Epoch Times,

    The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) is as committed to promoting gun safety as it is to gun rights, Bill Brassard, senior director of communications and director of the Child Safe program for the NSSF, told The Epoch Times.

    “It’s about much more than firearms,” Brassard said.

    According to Brassard, the firearms industry is working to do its part to promote gun safety and mental health.

    There are at least seven organizations committed to gun safety, suicide prevention, and mental health services among the more than 2,400 exhibitors at the event.

    “Attitudes are definitely changing,” Brassard said.

    “Five years ago, they would not have had a presence here.”

    Brassard spoke from the Project ChildSafe booth at the NSSF’s 45th Annual SHOT Show in Las Vegas, Nevada. SHOT stands for the Shooting, Hunting, and Outdoor Trade show.

    (Right) Ken Stacy, (North American representative for Lokaway safes) and (Left) Corkey Whempner (Lokaway sales representative) display one of their company’s gun safes during the National Shooting Sports Foundation’s 45th annual SHOT Show in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 18, 2023. (Michael Clements)

    One of the exhibitors Brassard referenced is Hold My Guns (HMG), a non-profit that arranges temporary gun storage. Whether for a military deployment, a mental health crisis, or the need to prevent unauthorized firearms access, HMG connects clients with federal firearms license (FFL) holders who can legally store their guns so they are ready to be returned.

    Sarah Joy Albrecht is the founder and executive director of HMG. She said that in an era of red flag laws and increased attempts to restrict gun ownership, HMG was started to help gun owners temporarily create distance from their firearms without government involvement.

    “This is a non-legislative approach,” Albrecht told The Epoch Times.

    “This is our community helping our own.”

    According to Albrecht, HMG arranges a transfer of firearms to an FFL. Since it is a legal transfer, the owner must be able to pass a federal background check. The guns are logged into the FFL’s records and kept in their secure storage until they are returned to the owner. She said HMG partners with FFLs, who will store the firearms for a nominal fee. The FFL partners require that the storage is legal, but other than that, no questions are asked.

    Albrecht said one of HMG’s main objectives is suicide prevention. Her family has been directly affected by suicide, and she started HMG to prevent such tragedies. She pointed out that more than half of all gun-related deaths are suicides. But news reports list those with gun crime statistics. This compounds the stigma of suicide, she said.

    Dustin Culbreth (vice president for product development of Vaultek) demonstrates the modular features of one of his company’s long gun safes during the National Shooting Sports Foundations 45th annual SHOT Show in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 18, 2023. (Michael Clements)

    “How much more likely is that person to seek help?” Albrecht asked. “(HMG) empowers people to make good decisions during a crisis. This is an option that serves our community.”

    Brassard said HMG and other safe storage options are essential in suicide prevention by creating time and distance between the person and the guns.

    “It gives the person a chance to find help,” Brassard said.

    NSSF has also partnered with the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), and Walk the Talk America in addition to starting programs like Project ChildSafe and NSSF Have a Brace Conversation. These organizations are working to educate the public and firearms retailers on recognizing warning signs that a person may be dealing with mental health issues and how to help them find assistance.

    Brassard said the programs have been well received.

    Along that line, NSSF and the American Foundation for Suicide prevention develop materials for firearms retailers, ranges, and manufacturers to make it easier for their customers to find the support they need when they need it. All the materials are free.

    NSSF provides educational materials and services through its Have a Brave Conversation program. The program offers a free toolkit containing brochures, posters, counter cards, and window clings for firearms-related businesses and organizations that want to prevent suicide.

    NSSF Suicide Prevention Partners

    Walk the Talk America (WTA) has been operating for nearly five years. It hosts free and anonymous mental health screenings in addition to educating clinicians about gun culture, promoting responsible gun ownership, and protecting Second Amendment rights and psychological well-being. WTA works with manufacturers, retailers, wholesalers, ranges, veterans’ groups, community groups, and government agencies.

    In addition to suicide prevention, NSSF has made protecting children a priority. This is why NSSF began its Project ChildSafe program, Brassard said. NSSF has provided more than 40 million gun locks to gun owners through local police departments. Brassard said the locks are provided free of charge and come with information on safe gun handling and storage.

    NSSF has partnered with 15,000 law enforcement agencies around the United States through the Project ChildSafe program. He said that NSSF safety programs are almost always welcomed by gun owners and those in the firearms industry. He said that as gun ownership has increased in the past several years, so has the desire of gun owners to do what is right.

    “It’s really a matter of responsible gun ownership,” Brassard said.

    Brassard said proper storage is a big part of responsible gun ownership. The quandary is how to prevent unauthorized access while maintaining availability.

    High Tech Storage

    Dustin Culbreth told The Epoch Times that safe manufacturers are bridging the gap between secure storage and easy access. Culbreth is vice president for product development at Orlando, Florida-based Vaultek.

    “We manufacture smart safes with built-in, cutting-edge technology,” Culbreth said.

    In addition to biometric technology, Culbreth said Vaultek safes are programmable. Vaultek’s small pistol safes can be programmed for up to 20 sets of fingerprints, meaning family members, friends, and others who may need access to the firearm will have it. They also come with a smartphone app that will alert the gun owner if someone tries to move or break into the safe.

    The app keeps a log of when and how the safe is accessed so the owner can always know what is going on with his firearms. In addition, he said Vaultek safes have backup methods of opening the safes if the technology fails.

    Tamper Resistant Latch

    Ken Stacy is the North American representative for Lokaway, an Australian safe manufacturer. In addition to incorporating high tech into its safe designs, Stacy said Lokaway has developed a unique pry-resistant latch system.

    “This latch system is much more secure,” Stacy told The Epoch Times.

    Stacy said Lokaway works to keep its products affordable while focusing on security. He said that anyone shopping for a gun safe should remember they are investing in their family’s safety as well as secure gun storage.

    “If you’re going to spend any money on a security device, buy one that works and protects your kids,” Stacey said.

    SHOT show runs through Jan. 20 at The Venetian Expo and Caesar’s Forum in Las Vegas, Nev. It features over 2,400 exhibitors on 800,000 net square feet of floor space. This is the 24th SHOT Show to be held in Las Vegas.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 22:20

  • Davos Plans For The Next Pandemic – Suggests National Digital Infrastructures To Track Vaccination
    Davos Plans For The Next Pandemic – Suggests National Digital Infrastructures To Track Vaccination

    The World Economic Forum’s Davos discussions often require some “reading between the lines” to understand what is really being said by the globalist participants, but not much interpretation is needed these days.  Ever since the pandemic event along with the lockdowns and the attempts to introduce vaccine passports, establishment representatives have been far more open about their agenda and their intentions for the future. 

    After all, it was Klaus Schwab that called covid a “rare but narrow window of opportunity” to implement the “Great Reset” of the current economic and political order.  The past few years have shown that the Davos crowd still clings to the fading pandemic panic as the “good old days” when they could have had anything they wanted, including total centralization.

    The globalists continue to refuse to address their many failures, but panels like the following say it all – They realize that the truth has hit the mainstream and far too many people are now questioning the validity of the restrictions, mandates, masks and the mRNA vaccines.  All of these measures have proven to be mostly useless in preventing viral spread, and now the negative side effects of the vaccines are being admitted to, at least to a point.  All in all, the pandemic was not the golden opportunity that Klaus Schwab and the WEF expected.    

    Their hopes and dreams now turn to a future pandemic, perhaps one with a far higher death rate that creates more exploitable public fear.

    Of special note in this panel, which includes former British PM Tony Blair and current head of Pfizer Albert Bourla, are comments made about the lack of unified agreement on political response – They do not go into detail here, but they may be referring to the refusal of some governments to pursue ongoing mandates and vaccine passports.  Public resistance to such actions led directly to apprehension among government officials as to how far they could push their luck.  Clearly, they decided they were playing with fire because many of these leaders backed off.  It was as if someone flipped a switch and the covid doom mongering suddenly slowed to a mere flicker of its former intensity.

    The group concludes that global institutions in the future need to put constant pressure on governments and, ostensibly, constant pressure on national populations in order to get the results they desire.

    By extension, Africa is mentioned a few times during the panel as an example of the need for “equity” in pandemic response.  What they don’t talk about is Africa’s lack of covid deaths despite around 65% of the continent being unvaccinated according to the New York Times world vaccine tracker. The African example as a control group for the unvaccinated has been a thorn in the side of globalists for the past couple years and obviously they want to change that.

    Another very interesting comment is made by Tony Blair, who calls for national digital infrastructure for tracking vaccinations.  Blair suggests that to keep various national governments on board with the agenda, they would have to be convinced pandemic issues are “continuing issues.”

    Albert Bourla addresses the possibility and challenges of producing vaccines in an even faster time frame to respond to new viral events.  His conclusion?  That regulators need to continue to keep doors open for Big Pharma in terms of expediency even when there is not a pandemic in play.  The average vaccine takes at least 10 years of study for safety and long term side effects; the covid vaccines were developed and administered in less than a year under emergency authorization.  This new standard of minimized safety obstacles is what Big Pharma and the WEF want for all vaccines and drugs in the future.      

    Bourla then admits to something, in a offhanded way, that many people have suspected; that the biggest challenge in the enforcement of mandates and widespread vaccination was public skepticism.  Bourla and others refer to this as the “politicizing” of the mandates, but it was really just resistance to authoritarianism, and it is something that frustrated globalist planning at every step.  This can only be a good thing. 

    At no point do the panel participants acknowledge the numerous studies showing the ineffectiveness of masking, the ineffectiveness of the lockdowns, the ineffectiveness of the vaccines, and the risks they entail.  The reasons for public resistance are not important to them, only the ways in which they can gain greater compliance during the next viral event. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 22:00

  • The Schools We Need For The New "Cognitive Economy"
    The Schools We Need For The New “Cognitive Economy”

    Authored by Charles Lipson via RealClear Wire,

    We are in the midst of a post-industrial revolution as profound and disruptive as the tectonic changes that launched the West’s rise to prosperity, providing ordinary people with a cornucopia of goods and services. The latest economic revolution – built on tiny computer chips, enormous data, and ubiquitous connectivity – differs from its predecessors in at least one crucial way. Unlike the first revolution (cotton spinning) and the second (heavy industry, from oil and steel to autos), this one relies on a highly educated work force. The least skilled are being displaced by smart machines, which are built and programmed by a skilled and adaptive workforce.

    This rapidly changing environment might be called a “cognitive economy.” It requires workers who are not only literate but numerate. That means effective training in math and science and the skills to continue that learning over a lifetime. In the United States, we simply don’t have the schools to meet those needs.

    Our failing public education system doesn’t prepare enough students for this cognitive economy, whether the jobs involve writing code, analyzing data, developing artificial intelligence, or operating sophisticated machines. In city after city, our public schools are consigning most students – the ones who don’t get into selective, magnet schools – to the scrap heap of this job market. Soon, the only way to support them will be never-ending transfer payments. If students from the least-advantaged households are to grasp the American Dream, if our economy is to lead this global transformation, then these dismal results have to change.

    Bad schools are not solely responsible for students’ shortcomings. Their families and neighborhoods share the blame. Too many children are raised by single parents, who are poorly educated themselves. They live in neighborhoods where violence is pervasive, nutrition is spotty, and educational achievement is mocked. They enter school with serious deficits. All too often, they leave the same way.

    Instead of compensating for these deficits, our public schools often compound them with unruly classrooms, low standards, and lousy instruction. Standardized testing shows just how bad the results are. In Illinois, for instance, only 1 in 5 students performs at grade level in either math or English. In Chicago, the results are even worse, and those for black students are worst of all. Among Chicago’s African American students, only 1 in 10 performs at grade level. These results would have been damaging 50 years ago. In today’s economy, they are devastating.

    What can be done? The easy answer – more funding – is wrong. According to one study, Chicago spends $29,000 per student annually, which is not unusual for a big city. The problem is not how much we spend per student but how little we get for the money.

    The obvious solution would be for our schools to imitate the most successful parts of our economy. Our economy – the richest in human history – has historically been premised on the belief that competition is good, monopolies are bad, and failing organizations should either adapt or pay the price. Where there is genuine competition, consumers will choose the best options, and businesses will strive to provide them – or go under. Public schools don’t face those incentives and don’t pay a price for their failure. The rest of us do, especially the ill-served students, who will pay a terrible price for the rest of their lives.

    The best way to change this mess is to introduce competition and choice. Lots of it. That means letting school funding follow each student and letting families choose where to educate their children. For that to work well, state legislatures and local school districts must provide enough money to fully fund a student’s education. Otherwise, poor families are left out and richer ones will simply use the extra funds to top up their private tuition payments. It means students with special needs should be given extra funding.

    Equally important, full funding is necessary to create a vibrant marketplace, where new schools (both non-profit and for-profit) compete for those dollars. That funding should be flexible enough to permit parents to spend some money for tutoring and online courses, such as language training or advanced math. They should be allowed to roll over their unspent money into next year’s tuition and, eventually, into community college or four-year universities.

    The argument here is not that new schools or older parochial ones are inherently better. They may or may not be. The point is that competition forces all schools, public and private, old and new, to strive to improve so they can compete in the marketplace. It weeds out those that don’t provide what parents demand, just as competition killed off Yugo cars and Detroit’s old clunkers. Consumers turned to better-built Japanese cars and forced GM and Ford to improve – or go bankrupt.

    Competition will do the same for schools. To survive and prosper, they will be forced to provide what parents demand, whether that is advanced math or after-school activities (for parents with 9-to-5 jobs). Some will seek competitive advantage by hiring the best teachers, paying them accordingly, and firing the worst. In short, a competitive market will force schools to innovate, improve, and adapt to what parents want for their children.

    The biggest obstacle to these changes is obvious: the entrenched power of teachers unions and their leverage over politicians who control education policy. Political scientists have long known that concentrated, well-organized groups, like these public-sector unions, typically wield more power than diffuse groups, like parents. They know that highly motivated, single-issue constituencies, like these unions, typically wield more power than groups concerned with many issues, like all families.

    The good news is that the pendulum is finally swinging toward parents, as school failures become painfully obvious and political candidates seize the issue, as Glenn Youngkin did so effectively in Virginia. Some states, like Florida, Wisconsin, and Arizona, have moved aggressively to increase school choice, both to please current voters and to attract young families. If these “laboratories of democracies” succeed, other states will follow. Let’s hope so, both for the students’ sake and the country’s growth.

    Charles Lipson is the Peter B. Ritzma Professor of Political Science Emeritus at the University of Chicago, where he founded the Program on International Politics, Economics, and Security. He can be reached at charles.lipson@gmail.com.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 21:40

  • Pentagon Already Sees Ukraine War Going Well Past 2023
    Pentagon Already Sees Ukraine War Going Well Past 2023

    We’ve not so much as reached one full month into 2023, and the United States’ top ranking general is already predicting the war in Ukraine will surely not end this year.

    US Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Mark Milley issued a broad view assessment on the state of the battlefield while attending a US-hosted meeting in Germany at Ramstein airbase among allied defense ministers, which had as its focus sending more arms to Ukraine. Gen. Milley said: “From a military standpoint I still maintain that for this year it would be very, very difficult to militarily eject the Russian forces from all, every inch of… Russian-occupied Ukraine.”

    Image: AP

    Milley in his comments said that currently there’s a mostly “static” front line, which the exception of the (Russian) offensive in the area of Soledar and Bakhmut.

    Despite officials at the meeting pledging more weapons to Ukraine, no significant decisions were made on the controversial question of sending Western-made heavy tanks.

    Instead, the Biden administration says it’s sticking by the decision to not send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukrainian forces. At the same time this may translate into Ukrainian forces holding back on any major attempt to push Russian forces back from current frontlines, particularly the now raging Bakhmut fighting.

    “Senior US officials are urging Ukraine to hold off on launching a major offensive against Russian forces until the latest supply of weaponry is in place and training has been provided, a top Biden administration official says,” according to one international report.

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    This was followed by: “Speaking to the Reuters news agency on the condition of anonymity, the official said the US was sticking to its decision not to provide Abrams tanks to Ukraine.”

    Again, 2023 has barely started, and here we are… the Pentagon expects this war to be stalemated and keep grinding on well into 2024.

    Sadly, the casualties on either side will continue to mount. The Western allies will inevitably for the time being continue to embark on a massive expansion of their respective defense budgets…

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 21:20

  • Supreme Court Again Refuses To Halt New York Gun Restrictions
    Supreme Court Again Refuses To Halt New York Gun Restrictions

    Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Supreme Court on Jan. 18 turned away an emergency request from firearms dealers to halt a months-old New York law that imposed new restrictions on gun purchases and dealers that the dealers say adversely affected sales and violated their rights.

    New York Attorney General Letitia James presents the findings of an investigation on Aug. 3, 2021, in New York City. (Photo by David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

    The ruling comes as challenges to gun laws across the nation have escalated since the high court struck down previous New York rules on guns in June 2022. In the same opinion, the court also held that there’s a constitutional right to carry a gun outside the home for self-defense, leading states such as New York and Illinois to respond by doubling down on firearms restrictions.

    The new state law in question, New York’s sweeping Concealed Carry Improvement Act, has been hotly litigated in the federal courts since it was approved by lawmakers in Albany. Some state law enforcement officials previously condemned the law, which took effect on Sept. 1, 2022, saying it would be difficult to enforce and may be unconstitutional. The New York State Sheriffs’ Association said the law was a “thoughtless, reactionary action.”

    The Supreme Court rejected the application in Gazzola v. Hochul, court file 22A591, in an unsigned order (pdf) on Jan. 18. No justices dissented from the order.

    The dealers said in court papers (pdf) that the new law treats “state licensed dealers in firearms as if they are ‘a highly selective group inherently suspect of criminal activities.’” The dealers said they were “urgently [seeking] a preliminary injunction to keep their doors open, while fighting to restore their civil rights through this lawsuit.”

    “Petitioners are risking everything to try to stay in business in support of civil rights under the Second, Fifth, and Fourteenth Amendments, and to keep the doors open and the lights on while they pursue this case, but we can’t seem to find a judge in district or circuit court who will back them up,” they said in the brief.

    One of the dealers’ complaints was that New York was making what they characterized as an unprecedented demand that all federally licensed firearms dealers and New York state-licensed dealers “surrender their federal firearms compliance records” on pain of “incarceration and license revocation.”

    “Until now, no federal, state, or municipal government in this country has attempted to grab the federal firearms compliance records of [a federal firearms dealer],” they said.

    The decision came after the Supreme Court similarly declined to block the New York law in an order on Jan. 11 in Antonyuk v. Nigrelli, which was brought by New York residents. Despite turning down the request to stay a ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit reinstating the law, Justice Samuel Alito issued a statement, joined by Justice Clarence Thomas, suggesting this wasn’t the high court’s final word on the matter.

    “The New York law at issue in this application presents novel and serious questions under both the First and the Second Amendments,” Alito wrote (pdf).

    The justice encouraged the Second Amendment advocates involved in the lawsuit to continue fighting the law.

    “Applicants should not be deterred by today’s order from again seeking relief if the Second Circuit does not, within a reasonable time, provide an explanation for its stay order or expedite consideration of the appeal,” Alito wrote.

    Before the Supreme Court acted on Jan. 11, the 2nd Circuit stayed an order by Syracuse-based U.S. District Judge Glenn Suddaby, who blocked sections of the law on Nov. 7, 2022, in a case brought by Gun Owners of America. The law imposed “unprecedented constitutional violations,” Suddaby wrote.

    Suddaby enjoined the new requirement that a carry applicant demonstrate “good moral character” and produce the names and contact information of spouses and other adults in the applicant’s home. He blocked the rule forcing applicants to submit social media accounts for review by government officials.

    Suddaby also enjoined the restrictions on carrying in public parks, zoos, places of worship, locations where alcohol is served, theaters, banquet halls, conferences, airports and buses, and lawful protests and assemblies, as well as the blanket ban on carrying on private property without the consent of the owner.

    New York’s Concealed Carry Improvement Act was rushed through the state legislature in the summer of 2022 and signed by Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul after the Supreme Court’s decision in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen invalidated the state’s requirement that a carry permit applicant demonstrate a special need for self-defense.

    Hochul denounced the high court ruling at the time, calling it “a reckless decision … senselessly sending us backward and putting the safety of our residents in jeopardy.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 21:00

  • Multiple Suicide Drones Attack Remote US Base In Syria
    Multiple Suicide Drones Attack Remote US Base In Syria

    In the second such incident involving a US base in the region already in 2023, multiple suicide drones struck an American base in Syria on Friday morning, leaving two US-backed Syrian fighters injured.

    “This morning, three one-way attack drones attacked the At Tanf Garrison in Syria,” a CENTCOM statement began. “Two of the drones were shot down by Coalition Forces while one struck the compound, injuring two members of the Syrian Free Army partner force who received medical treatment.”

    Drone launch as part of Iranian exercise, file image via Reuters.

    The statement noted no American troops or personnel were injured. “Attacks of this kind are unacceptable – they place our troops and our partners at risk and jeopardize the fight against ISIS,” a CENTCOM spokesman added.

    The al-Tanf Garrison has since 2016 been the most southerly US-occupied spot in Syria, lying near the border with Iraq and Jordan.

    The Pentagon and prior Trump and now Biden administrations have justified the US presence there as key to the ‘counter-ISIS’ mission, despite the Islamic State terror group having long been driven underground. Some 800 to more than 1,000 US troops still occupy the oil-and-gas rich northeast of the country, denying Damascus and the Syrian population vital resources.

    Citing the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the regional outlet The Cradle described that it was the first attack on that particular Syria-Iraq border facility in five months: 

    SOHR sources stated that the drones carried out several strikes on the base, triggering a state of panic among US occupation forces and injuring members of the CIA-trained Maghawir al-Thawra (MaT) armed group, a US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) faction formed to ‘fight ISIS.’

    Over the past year there have been sporadic rocket attacks on the US-occupied Conoco gas field in Syria’s eastern city of Deir Ezzor, and other locations.

    Map via Google

    Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has meanwhile been engaged in intense talks mediated by Moscow, demanding that Turkish forces withdraw from all Syrian soil. Both the Turkish and Syrian sides ultimately want to see the US occupation squeezed out – something which Russia would like to see through as well. But it would require some level of rapprochement and coordinated strategy between Damascus and Ankara.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 20:40

  • The Global Energy Crisis Is Redrawing Geopolitical Maps
    The Global Energy Crisis Is Redrawing Geopolitical Maps

    Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

    • The global energy crisis is redrawing geopolitical maps.

    • Some experts are saying that the global south is increasingly gaining influence in geopolitics on the world stage as climate change is rewriting the rules of trade and consumption.

    • While the lesson to be learned from the European energy crisis should be to diversify, diversify, diversify both trade partners and forms of energy,n the global north is instead opting to narrow their trading options even further.

    We are currently living through a “global energy crisis of unprecedented depth and complexity,” according to this year’s annual energy outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which warns that “there is no going back to the way things were” before Covid-19 and Russia’s war in Ukraine rocked the globe. Together, these events have already reconfigured energy trade worldwide, but the shockwaves to the global economy and geopolitics in general are just getting started. 

    Everyone seems to agree that we’re living through a large-scale reconfiguration of global geopolitics, but there is less consensus as to what is in store for world trade once the dust has settled. Some experts are saying that the global south is increasingly gaining influence in geopolitics on the world stage as climate change is rewriting the rules of trade and consumption, while others argue that reactionary protectionist practices in the developed world will only further marginalize and alienate less developed nations.  

    A recent opinion piece by Ravi Agrawal, the editor in chief of Foreign Policy, claims that “the most meaningful trend in global politics for 2023” is that “the global south is becoming more visible—and influential—in every arena.” As evidence, Agrawal cites that the most developed countries made major concessions to historically silenced and sidelined poorer countries a few months ago at COP27, including the landmark “loss and damage” fund to help the developing world contend with climate-related crises – a major turnaround from COP26. 

    Agrawal also points to the fact that the balance of power has clearly shifted away from the United States, which was unable to convince many countries in the developing world to mirror U.S. sanctions against Russia. “Leaving aside the thorny issue of ethics in foreign policy,” Agrawal writes of the failed attempt to foster solidarity against the Kremlin, “leaders from New Delhi to Nairobi exhibited a growing confidence in asserting their own strategic interests instead of the West’s.”

    While Agrawal may be right that these “younger and faster-growing” parts of the planet are becoming more assertive on the global stage, it’s less clear if he is correct in his assertion that “policymakers and businesses in the West will need to adapt.” Certainly he is correct to some extent, but the shift may not be as seismic as his op-ed would lead readers to believe. In fact, at the same time that these oft forgotten nations are gaining recognition and influence in some key geopolitical debates, their invisibility and outsider status is also being shored up in other arenas. 

    The unprecedented energy crisis was kicked into overdrive by the West’s misguided reliance on a volatile and despotic regime, and now the United States, Europe, and its key allies are responding to that critical error by circling the wagons. Instead of following the ideals of free trade and the mandates of the World Trade Organization, protectionist policies are taking over which are sure to shut out poorer nations. 

    While the lesson to be learned from the European energy crisis should be to diversify, diversify, diversify both trade partners and forms of energy, nations in the global north are instead opting to narrow their trading options even further. “Staking out spheres of influence and assessing the reliability and trustworthiness of suppliers and countries is the order of the day,” read a recent analysis from Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, the German Institute of International and Security Affairs. 

    Indeed, Western leaders such as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are openly calling for a shift of strategy, away from free market trading to the concept of “friend-shoring”, in which countries shift supply chains to “trusted countries” with similar values and political allegiances. The Euro­pean Commission’s Strategic Foresight Report 2022, too, has called for a similar shift in trade networks. 

    This does not bode well for the global south. As the richest nations in the world increasingly trade only with each other, any viable pathway to economic development becomes much, much harder to navigate for the least developed countries. While it’s all well and good that wealthy nations have agreed to create a disaster fund for the nations that will be hit hardest by climate change, that measure is a drop in the bucket compared to what these nations actually need in terms of climate mitigation and adaptation. More to the point, these nations don’t need endless charity – they need their own robust economies and growth trajectories. That’s what really gives a nation any kind of voice or influence on the global stage, not a check cut by emissions guilt. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 20:20

  • Cardano Founder Considers Bailing Out CoinDesk, Says $200 Million Is "Overpriced"
    Cardano Founder Considers Bailing Out CoinDesk, Says $200 Million Is “Overpriced”

    CoinDesk Inc., a cryptocurrency news website whose parent company is financially troubled Digital Currency Group Inc., reached out to investment bankers at Lazard Ltd. for a potential sale. 

    “Over the last few months, we have received numerous inbound indications of interest in CoinDesk,” CoinDesk CEO Kevin Worth told WSJ. 

    One interested party in CoinDesk is Cardano blockchain founder Charles Hoskinson. 

    On Thursday, Hoskinson tweeted a video explaining the price of the crypto-focused media outlet is around $200 million, adding it might be overpriced if the valuation is based on “a 2021 number when everything was on the cocaine and hookers era, and everyone was making great money.” He then asked if the valuation had been readjusted for 2022 numbers during the crypto bear market. 

    “At $200 million, I believe it’s a bit overpriced,” he said. “I could afford it if I really wanted to.” 

    Hoskinson said his goal is to revive “journalistic integrity” in the crypto news race. He noted Cardano had a bunch of bad press from various media outlets with agendas — citing how FTX funded The Block. 

    He said it might be cheaper to build a “more decentralized organization” with $5 to $10 million. 

    He pointed out that CoinDesk doesn’t have a good video unit yet and lacks a metaverse component. 

    Here’s Hoskinson talking about CoinDesk:

    And the news of a potential sale comes as Genesis Global Capital filed for Chapter 11 on Thursday night. Genesis and CoinDesk are both parent companies of Digital Currency Group, which Barry Silbert operates. Perhaps Silbert’s crypto empire is in a liquidity crunch. 

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 20:00

  • US Expands Training Of Taiwanese Military By Sending National Guard Units
    US Expands Training Of Taiwanese Military By Sending National Guard Units

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    The US has expanded its training of the Taiwanese military to include a program involving the US National Guard, Nikkei Asia reported on Thursday.

    A source told Nikkei that the training began sometime before spring 2022. In May 2022, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen announced cooperation with the National Guard while hosting Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) in Taipei. “The US Department of Defense is now proactively planning cooperation between the US National Guard and Taiwan’s defense forces,” Tsai said. “We look forward to closer and deeper Taiwan-US cooperation on matters of regional security.”

    Image source: Stars & Stripes. A Taiwanese marine prepares to launch a drone over the Taiwan Strait.

    The report said that the training already began before Tsai made the announcement during Duckworth’s visit. Since the training started, the National Guard has trained Taiwanese troops in both Taiwan and inside the US.

    National Guard training overseas typically involves a unit from a single state, but the report said the training in Taiwan involves units from multiple US states, including Hawaii. The US and Taiwan rarely acknowledge their military cooperation, and a Pentagon spokesman declined to comment on the National Guard Training.

    “We don’t have a comment on specific operations, engagements or training, but I would highlight that our support for, and defense relationship with, Taiwan remains aligned against the current threat posed by the People’s Republic of China,” the Pentagon told Nikkei.

    In October 2021, The Wall Street Journal reported that a US special operations unit and a contingent of Marines were in Taiwan and had been training Taipei’s military for at least a year. Tsai later confirmed the report, marking the first time a Taiwanese leader acknowledged a US military presence in Taiwan since Washington severed diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979.

    The growing US-Taiwan military ties anger Beijing, which views the policies as an affront to the one-China policy. The 2023 National Defense Authorization Act President Biden recently signed into law includes measures to increase US and Taiwanese military cooperation even more.

    The US is also encouraging Japan’s military buildup and is planning to expand its military facilities in the Philippines as part of its effort to counter China in the region. The top US Marine Corps general in Japan described the effort as “setting the theater” and said the US did something similar in Ukraine starting in 2014, after the US-backed coup that deposed former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.

    The US launched a similar National Guard training program for Ukraine in 2014, known as Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine, that rotated through units from different states. US military officials said 23,000 Ukrainians were trained under the program. The US withdrew its National Guard troops from Ukraine shortly before Russia’s invasion.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 19:40

  • China's Biggest Oil Trading Firm Goes On A Buying Spree
    China’s Biggest Oil Trading Firm Goes On A Buying Spree

    One of the core pillars behind the bull case for oil in 2023 is that China, having permanently shelved its zero covid policies, will open the floodgates on oil buying as the Chinese economy recovery sharply and powerfully.

    Today, we got the first indication of precisely that: Unipec, the largest oil trader in China and the trading unit of state-held refiner Sinopec, purchased 9 million barrels of Abu Dhabi’s Upper Zakum crude grade for March loadings, traders told Bloomberg, in a clear sign that Chinese oil demand will pick up pace in the second quarter as many expect.

    18 cargoes of Upper Zakum crude is above the typical purchases of Unipec, OilPrice reported citing traders.

    Still, traders aren’t sure whether the buying spree for Abu Dhabi’s crude is directly linked with expectations of a surge in demand. It may be because of the price of the crude linked to the Dubai benchmark prices, or part of the cargoes could be resold, according to various traders who spoke to Bloomberg.  

    At any rate, analysts and the market expect Chinese oil demand to rebound after the reopening of the world’s largest crude oil importer after nearly three years of Covid-related lockdowns.

    Saudi oil giant Aramco expects the Chinese reopening and a pick-up in jet fuel demand to lead to a rebound in global oil demand this year, Amin Nasser, the CEO of the world’s biggest oil firm, told Bloomberg in an interview earlier this week.

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees China’s reopening driving global oil demand to a record high of 101.7 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up by 1.9 million bpd from 2022. That’s an upgrade of 200,000 bpd of the IEA’s demand growth estimate for 2023, from 1.7 million bpd growth expected in December. Almost half of the oil demand growth this year will come from China after Beijing lifted its Covid restrictions, the IEA said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report (OMR) for January earlier this week. 

    “China will drive nearly half this global demand growth even as the shape and speed of its reopening remains uncertain,” the IEA said.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 19:00

  • Pantsir Air Defense Systems Erected On Several Moscow Rooftops
    Pantsir Air Defense Systems Erected On Several Moscow Rooftops

    Viral videos and photographs show that Russia has stationed missile defense systems on several Moscow building rooftops.

    Taking note of some of the photos, The Drive writes that the “Russian military appears to have emplaced Pantsir air defense systems on top of at least two different government buildings in Moscow, including the Ministry of Defense’s headquarters.”

    Pantsir-S1 SAM on the roof of the building of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Frunzenskaya Embankment. January 19, 2023

    One video showed very large cranes lifting the entire surface-to-air battery from ground level to the top corner of a sprawling building. The Pantsir system can defend against everything from aircraft missiles to cruise missiles or drones.

    The Drive continues, “The official reason for the apparent deployments is unclear, but Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to conduct strikes at extended ranges using various types of drones. There could be other explanations, including this just being part of an ostensible exercise of some kind.”

    Recent months have seen Ukraine send deadly drones an impressive 600km deep into Russia to attack the Engels military airfield. This suggests that other cities far from the Ukraine border could be vulnerable to attack.

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    The Moscow Times observed that “On Friday, reports emerged that another likely Pantsir-S1 system had been spotted 10 kilometers from President Vladimir Putin’s official residence in Novo-Ogaryovo outside Moscow this month.”

    The report added, “They follow sightings of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems at a national park and a testing ground in north and northeastern Moscow.”

    The Kremlin has remained mum when asked about the anti-air systems being placed on buildings in Moscow on Friday.

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    Like with other countries and their most sensitive government facilities, it’s likely being done out of an abundance of caution, especially given the escalating war in Ukraine and growing showdown with NATO and the US.

    On Friday the Russian military reported more gains in eastern Ukraine, announcing via TASS the capture of Klischiivka town, which lies on the outskirts of Bakhumut, which is the main strategic prize in the region now being fiercely fought for. There are reportedly heavy casualties on both sides amid the grinding fight for Bakhmut and the surrounding area.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 18:40

  • "It's Shocking": California's Early Release Of Convicted Pedophiles Will Lead To More Victims: Former DA
    “It’s Shocking”: California’s Early Release Of Convicted Pedophiles Will Lead To More Victims: Former DA

    Authored by Siyamak Khorrami and Epoch Times Staff,

    A former Los Angeles County Deputy District Attorney who worked in its sex crimes unit is warning early releases of pedophiles from California prisons—due to a series of recent progressive laws—will lead to more children being victimized and harmed, in part because such criminals are rarely rehabilitated.

    Stock photo of a condemned inmate led out of his east block cell at San Quentin State Prison, in San Quentin, Calif. on March 13, 2019. (Eric Risberg/AP)

    Samuel Dordulian, who now heads the Dordulian Law Group out of Glendale, California, which specializes in such crimes, made the comments on a recent episode of EpochTV’s California Insider.

    “It’s terrifying for me as a parent and it should be terrifying for every parent out there of a child,” said Dordulian, who worked in the DA’s office from 1995 until 2008.

    During the 30-minute interview, Dordulian said he was surprised such criminals are released so quickly these days.

    He said he only discovered such when a reporter from the Daily Mail reached out to him last year showing statistics that such criminals in California are, on average, being released in about 1 ½ years and sometimes within only months.

    “It’s shocking,” he said.

    Published in November of 2022, the story indicated “thousands of child molesters are being let out after just a few months, despite sentencing guidelines.”

    The story reported that more than 7,000 inmates convicted of “lewd or lascivious acts with a child under 14 years of age” were released from prison the same year they were incarcerated.

    The Daily Mail’s analysis was conducted using a database—created in 1994 after the federal Megan’s Law was passed—requiring law enforcement to make public information regarding registered sex offenders. The news organization examined data in California through July of 2019.

    “Everyone should be really upset and frightened by this,” Dordulian said.

    According to Dordulian, child molesters are the least likely of criminals to be rehabilitated and are four times more likely to commit the same crime again.

    “Once they’re out,” he said, “they are going to re-offend and there’s going to be another child that is victimized by these people.”

    According to Dordulian, the early releases are the result of a recent series of California laws, most specifically 2016’s Prop. 57, which allows prisoners earlier paroles, reduced time for good behavior, and sentences only for a criminal’s “base” crime, meaning additional charges can be ignored.

    “And that is unthinkable,” he said.

    He additionally said the policies of current Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón are a complete 180 from when he served in the DA’s office.

    “That is not the way I used to prosecute crimes,” he said.

    Today, he said, the focus is on helping the offender, not protecting the victim.

    “[The] attitude has completely changed,” he said. Today, the ethos is “doing everything you can to see how you can help this poor criminal who committed this crime.”

    In his day, he said, prosecutors looked for ways to maximize sentences to keep convicts away for as long as possible, in part because of high recidivism rates for child molesters.

    That included charging them with every lewd touch they made on a child. Each, he said, allowed up to eight years of imprisonment.

    “You would then be able to have [a] significant maximum sentence,” he said. “All that work we would put in to make sure [a molester] was going to get a high sentence is thrown out the window,” now.

    Part of the reasons for the passage of Prop. 57 were overcrowding in prisons, the cost of over $100,000 a year to house an inmate, and a growing belief such funding could be better used for rehabilitation, he said.

    But according to Dordulian, a 2018 state audit revealed money spent on rehabilitation has little impact on recidivism.

    “It has little to absolutely no impact on criminals reoffending,” he said. “Rehabilitation is not working in California.”

    He also said the recent trend since the 2020 death of George Floyd of defunding police and a decline of morale within the ranks, is not helping either.

    “Why is anyone surprised that we’re having an incredible rise in crime?” he said. “No one feels safer today than they did several years ago.”

    Today, he said, the state and elected officials are no longer holding criminals accountable for their crimes. Officials have shifted, instead, he said, to blaming society, the economy and racism.

    “It’s everyone’s fault except for the person who is actually committing the offense,” he said.

    Dordulian said he was once honored to work in the DA’s office and felt proud to help victims.

    Today, he said, some are now choosing to hire him—at no cost—“to be their voice in criminal court,” instead of having their cases prosecuted by the DA.

    “The DA is no longer the voice of the victim,” he said.

    Things can change, he said, if people would tell elected officials “enough is enough.”

    “If we don’t get the pendulum to swing back,” he said, “it’s going to be complete lawlessness out there.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 18:20

  • Didi's App Is Officially Back On Chinese App Stores
    Didi’s App Is Officially Back On Chinese App Stores

    Ride sharing app Didi has officially returned to the main app stores in China, according to a Friday morning note by Bloomberg. It marks a definitive step forward for the company after it was throttled by Beijing years ago during a sweeping crackdown of Chinese technology names. 

    And this go-round, it looks like Didi has Beijing’s tradewinds at its back. Marking a potentially even closer relationship to the government, the report also notes that China will be launching a “government-backed app to integrate a variety of services”, including ride-hailing, that will incorporate Didi. 

    Recall days ago we noted when Beijing gave Didi the nod to start signing up new users again. Didi was made the poster child for a Beijing-led crackdown on China’s internet industry. The decision to allow Didi to continue operating is being hailed as a “clear sign” that Beijing is prioritizing re-starting the country’s economy after locking down for Covid. 

    Didi’s app had been removed from app stores in 2021. Didi has long been compared to Uber in China, but most recently became famous alongside of the halted Ant Group Co.’s IPO as a symbol of China’s crackdown on its internet industry. 

    The crackdown on Didi came after the company “pushed ahead with a $4 billion-plus US initial public offering against Beijing’s wishes”. It is being speculated that now, with the resumption of signing up users, the company may eventually list in Hong Kong.

    Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Catherine Lim said in a report last weekend: “The relaunch of Didi apps supports earlier indications from Beijing that required reforms within local technology sector are near-completion. Disruptions to the operations of tech giants such as Alibaba, Tencent should be minimal in 2023.”

    It may also see Didi stock – which had traded on the over the counter markets – once again attempt an uplisting in the United States. 

    Combined with recent concessions made regarding Ant Group, it sends a signal that the government may be easing up on the industry as a whole. Guo Shuqing, party secretary of the People’s Bank of China, has alluded to the regulatory clampdown drawing to a close, Bloomberg wrote. 

    Didi is the latest in a list of signs that show China is prepping to unleash its economy coming out of this round of Covid lockdowns. As Bloomberg noted, this week China also “released the first batch of 88 domestic game approvals in 2023” and said it will “‘moderately’ front-load infrastructure investment” this year.

    Is it time to once again get bullish on China?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 18:00

  • Trump To Host First 2024 Campaign Event With Graham, McMaster In South Carolina
    Trump To Host First 2024 Campaign Event With Graham, McMaster In South Carolina

    Authored by Lorenz Duchamps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The campaign of former President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Gov. Henry McMaster will join Trump on Jan. 28 as the Republican will make the first public appearance of his 2024 White House run.

    Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla., on Nov. 15, 2022. (Alon Skuy/AFP via Getty Images)

    Last week, campaign spokesman Steven Cheung confirmed with the Associated Press (AP) that Trump will host an event in South Carolina later this month, but no specific details were immediately announced at the time.

    Trump, 76, hinted at a 2024 run for more than a year and formally announced his presidential bid in a prime-time speech at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida in November 2022.

    The two well-known South Carolina Republicans will attend the Jan. 28 event at Columbia’s state capitol building, where the former president will unveil his campaign’s state leadership team, according to Tuesday’s announcement.

    A person familiar with the matter speaking to AP on the condition of anonymity said the event will also include members of South Carolina’s congressional delegation, as well as state lawmakers.

    Trump has not hit the campaign trail since he formally announced his presidential run on Nov. 15, 2022. Instead, he made occasional appearances before invited guests at his Mar-a-Lago estate.

    The event comes as two other South Carolina Republicans—former Gov. Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott—are both considered potential challengers for the Republican nomination.

    Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks to guests at the Republican Jewish Coalition Annual Leadership Meeting in Las Vegas, Nev., on Nov. 19, 2022. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

    Haley, who will turn 51 on Jan. 20, said about a week after Trump announced his presidential bid in mid-November that she’s considering launching a 2024 presidential bid, reneging on a promise she made in 2021 that she would not run if Trump ran.

    “A lot of people have asked if I’m going to run for president now that the midterms are over, I’ll look at it in a serious way and I’ll have more to say soon,” she said during an appearance at a Republican Jewish Coalition meeting. Haley was the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations while Trump was in office.

    Scott, recently reelected to what he has said will be his final Senate term, has been making visits in other early-voting states and launched a political action committee that could become a presidential campaign vehicle.

    In 2016, when South Carolina was the third state after Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump’s statewide victory helped solidify his status as the GOP front-runner.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 17:40

  • Facebook And Instagram Could Soon Allow Transgender And Non-Binary People To Show Their Breasts
    Facebook And Instagram Could Soon Allow Transgender And Non-Binary People To Show Their Breasts

    Just when we thought that there couldn’t possibly be more useless detritus floating around on Facebook and Instagram comes the news that both social media platforms could soon be “allowing transgender and non-binary users to flash their bare breasts”.

    And in a real slap to the face for equality, women who were born biologically female will have no such option, according to a new report by the NY Post.

    Regardless, Meta’s Oversight Board, which the company refers to as its “Supreme Court” for moderation and censorship policies, ordered both Facebook and Instagram to “lift a ban on images of topless women for anyone who identifies as transgender or non-binary,” the Post wrote. 

    The board’s decision stated: “The same image of female-presenting nipples would be prohibited if posted by a cisgender woman but permitted if posted by an individual self-identifying as non-binary.”

    “Time to fire up the ole’ Facebook…”

    And hey, we’re asking for a friend, but we wonder how much the position of “breast content moderator” is going to pay. After all, the company is reportedly going to be relying on “human reviewers” to moderate such content, the report says. 

    Those reviewers are going to be tasked with “quickly assess[ing] both a user’s sex, as this policy applies to ‘female nipples,’ and their gender identity,” the Post wrote. And this isn’t some hastily thrown together initiative – the board has added the complex nuance that there will be “additional nipple-related exceptions based on contexts of protest, birth giving, after birth, and breastfeeding which it did not examine here, but also must be assessed.”

    “We had reinstated this content prior to the decision, recognizing that it should not have been taken down,” the company told the Post. “We are constantly evaluating our policies to help make our platforms safer for everyone. We know more can be done to support the LGBTQ+ community, and that means working with experts and LGBTQ+ advocacy organizations on a range of issues and product improvements.”

    “We welcome the board’s decision in this case,” the concluded. Yeah, but what about the rest of us?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 17:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jan 20

Today’s News 20th January 2023

  • 360-Degree Surveillance: How Police Use Public-Private Partnerships To Spy On Americans
    360-Degree Surveillance: How Police Use Public-Private Partnerships To Spy On Americans

    Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “We live in a surveillance state founded on a partnership between government and the technology industry.”

    – Law Professor Avidan Y. Cover

    In this age of ubiquitous surveillance, there are no private lives: everything is public.

    Surveillance cameras mounted on utility poles, traffic lights, businesses, and homes. License plate readers. Ring doorbells. GPS devices. Dash cameras. Drones. Store security cameras. Geofencing and geotracking. FitBits. Alexa. Internet-connected devices.  

    There are roughly one billion surveillance cameras worldwide and that number continues to grow, thanks to their wholehearted adoption by governments (especially law enforcement and military agencies), businesses, and individual consumers.

    With every new surveillance device we welcome into our lives, the government gains yet another toehold into our private worlds.

    Indeed, empowered by advances in surveillance technology and emboldened by rapidly expanding public-private partnerships between law enforcement, the Intelligence Community, and the private sector, police have become particularly adept at sidestepping the Fourth Amendment.

    As law professor Avidan Y. Cover explains:

    A key feature of the surveillance state is the cooperative relationship between the private sector and the government. The private sector’s role is vital to the surveillance both practically and legally. The private sector, of course, provides the infrastructure and tools for the surveillance… The private sector is also critical to the surveillance state’s legality. Under the third-party doctrine, the Fourth Amendment is not implicated when the government acquires information that people provide to corporations, because they voluntarily provide their information to another entity and assume the risk that the entity will disclose the information to the government. Therefore, people do not have a reasonable expectation of privacy in their calling data, or potentially even their emails. As a result, the government does not normally need a warrant to obtain information transmitted electronically. But the Fourth Amendment is not only a source of protection for individual privacy; it also limits government excess and abuse through challenges by the people. The third-party doctrine removes this vital and populist check on government overreach.

    Critical to this end run around the Fourth Amendment’s prohibitions against unreasonable searches and seizures by government agents is a pass play that allows police to avoid public transparency requirements (open bids, public meetings, installation protocols) by having private companies and individuals do the upfront heavy lifting, leaving police to harvest the intel on the back end.

    Stingray devices, facial recognition technology, body cameras, automated license plate readers, gunshot detection, predictive policing software, AI-enhanced video analytics, real-time crime centers, fusion centers: all of these technologies and surveillance programs rely on public-private partnerships that together create a sticky spiderweb from which there is no escape.

    As the cost of these technologies becomes more affordable for the average consumer, an effort underwritten by the tech industry and encouraged by law enforcement agencies and local governing boards, which in turn benefit from access to surveillance they don’t need to include in their budgets, big cities, small towns, urban, suburban and rural communities alike are adding themselves to the surveillance state’s interconnected grid.

    What this adds up to for government agencies (that is, FBI, NSA, DHS agents, etc., as well as local police) is a surveillance map that allows them to track someone’s movements over time and space, hopscotching from doorbell camera feeds and business security cameras to public cameras on utility poles, license plate readers, traffic cameras, drones, etc.

    It has all but eliminated the notion of privacy and radically re-drawn the line of demarcation between our public and private selves.

    Over the past 50 years, surveillance has brought about a series of revolutions in how governments govern and populations are policed to the detriment of us all. Cybersecurity expert Adam Scott Wandt has identified three such revolutions.

    The first surveillance revolution came about as a result of government video cameras being installed in public areas. There were a reported 51 million surveillance cameras blanketing the United States in 2022. It’s estimated that Americans are caught on camera an average of 238 times every week (160 times per week while driving; 40 times per week at work; 24 times per week while out running errands and shopping; and 14 times per week through various other channels and activities). That doesn’t even touch on the coverage by surveillance drones, which remain a relatively covert part of police spying operations.

    The second revolution occurred when law enforcement agencies started forging public-private partnerships with commercial establishments like banks and drug stores and parking lots in order to gain access to their live surveillance feeds. The use of automatic license plate readers (manufactured and distributed by the likes of Flock Safety), once deployed exclusively by police and now spreading to home owners associations and gated communities, extends the reach of the surveillance state that much further afield. It’s a win-win for police budgets and local legislatures when they can persuade businesses and residential communities to shoulder the costs of the equipment and share the footage, and they can conscript the citizenry to spy on each other through crowdsourced surveillance.

    The third revolution was ushered in with the growing popularity of doorbell cameras such as Ring, Amazon’s video surveillance doorbell, and Google’s Nest Cam.

    Amazon has been particularly aggressive in its pursuit of a relationship with police, enlisting them in its marketing efforts, and going so far as to hosting parties for police, providing free Ring doorbells and deep discounts, sharing “active camera” maps of Ring owners, allowing access to the Law Enforcement Neighborhood Portal, which enables police to directly contact owners for access to their footage, and coaching police on how to obtain footage without a warrant.

    Ring currently partners with upwards of 2,161 law enforcement agencies and 455 fire departments, and that number grows exponentially every year. As Vice reports, “Ring has also heavily pursued city discount programs and private alliances with neighborhood watch groups. When cities provide free or discounted Ring cameras, they sometimes create camera registries, and police sometimes order people to aim Ring cameras at their neighbors, or only give cameras to people surveilled by neighborhood watches.”

    In November 2022, San Francisco police gained access to the live footage of privately owned internet cameras as opposed to merely being able to access recorded footage. No longer do police even have to request permission of homeowners for such access: increasingly, corporations have given police access to footage as part of their so-called criminal investigations with or without court orders.

    We would suggest a fourth revolutionary shift to be the use of facial recognition software and artificial intelligence-powered programs that can track people by their biometrics, clothing, behavior and car, thereby synthesizing the many strands of surveillance video footage into one cohesive narrative, which privacy advocates refer to as 360 degree surveillance.

    Finally, Wandt sees autonomous cars equipped with cameras that record everything around them as yet another revolutionary expansion of surveillance to be tapped by police.

    Yet in the present moment, it’s those public-private partnerships that signify a watershed moment in the transition from a police state to a surveillance state and sound a death knoll for our privacy rights. This fusion of government power and private power is also at the heart of the surveillance state’s growing stranglehold on the populace.

    As always, these intrusions into our personal lives are justified in the name of national security and fighting crime. Yet while the price to be paid for having the government’s so-called protection is nothing less than our right to privacy, the guarantee of safety remains dubious, at best.

    As a study on camera surveillance by researchers at City University of New York concluded, the presence of cameras were somewhat effective as a deterrent for crimes such as car burglaries and property theft, but they had no significant effect on violent crimes.

    On the other hand, when you combine overcriminalization with wall-to-wall surveillance monitored by police in pursuit of crimes, the resulting suspect society inevitably gives way to a nation of criminals. In such a society, we are all guilty of some crime or other.

    The predatory effect of these surveillance cameras has also yet to be fully addressed, but they are vulnerable to being hacked by third parties and abused by corporate and government employees.

    After all, power corrupts. We’ve seen this abuse of power recur time and time again throughout history. For instance, as an in-depth investigative report by the Associated Press concludes, the very same mass surveillance technologies that were supposedly so necessary to fight the spread of COVID-19 are now being used to stifle dissent, persecute activists, harass marginalized communities, and link people’s health information to other surveillance and law enforcement tools. As the AP reports, federal officials have also been looking into how to add “‘identifiable patient data,’ such as mental health, substance use and behavioral health information from group homes, shelters, jails, detox facilities and schools,” to its surveillance toolkit.

    These cameras—and the public-private eyes peering at us through them—are re-engineering a society structured around the aesthetic of fear and, in the process, empowering “people to not just watch their neighborhood, but to organize as watchers,” creating not just digital neighborhood watches but digital gated communities.

    Finally, there is a repressive, suppressive effect to surveillance that not only acts as a potentially small deterrent on crime but serves to monitor and chill lawful First Amendment activity. As Matthew Feeney warns in the New York Times, “In the past, Communists, civil rights leaders, feminists, Quakers, folk singers, war protesters and others have been on the receiving end of law enforcement surveillance. No one knows who the next target will be.”

    No one knows, but it’s a pretty good bet that the surveillance state will be keeping a close watch on anyone seen as a threat to the government’s chokehold on power.

    It’s George Orwell’s 1984 on a global scale.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, Orwell’s dystopian nightmare has become our looming reality.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 01/20/2023 – 00:00

  • Long Chinese Stocks Seen Among Most-Crowded Trades
    Long Chinese Stocks Seen Among Most-Crowded Trades

    By Ye Xie, Bloomberg markets live reporter and analyst

    What a difference two months can make. In November, selling short Chinese stocks was considered by fund managers in a Bank of America survey as one of the most crowded trades. Now, bullish bets on Chinese equities made the list. It underscores the tremendous volatility Chinese assets have endured in recent months.

    The BofA survey published this week showed that 12% of investors believed going long Chinese equities was one of the most-popular positions in global markets. It trailed only long-dollar and long-ESG positions, which garnered 32% and 17% of the votes, respectively. Two months ago, fund managers considered betting against Chinese stocks to be the second-most crowded trade after long-dollar positions.

    The 180-degree shift in sentiment is hardly a surprise. Until late October, investors had been dumping Chinese assets as Covid restrictions sank the economy and President Xi Jinping installed his loyalists to the top leadership at the Party Congress. Over the past two months, China abandoned the Covid Zero policy, propped up the ailing housing market and turned more supportive on tech companies. Since hitting the lowest since 2009 in late October, the Hang Seng Index has jumped 48% in dollar terms as the best performer among the world’s major stock benchmarks.

    A crowded position is generally viewed as a negative. When many investors are positioned the same way, there’s no marginal new buyers to push the market higher. And when the fundamental story changes and everyone heads for the exit, it exacerbates the selloff.

    So should we be worried about investors being too sanguine? Not necessarily.

    On the positioning front, the BofA survey does show fund managers are “unabashedly bullish” on China. A net 91% of fund managers expect a stronger Chinese economy, the highest percentage in 17 years.

    In a separate survey of Asian managers, 42% said they are overweight China, up from 14% in October. In addition, 90% of them think Chinese stocks can deliver positive returns this year, even if US equities fall.

    Still, it’s debatable whether the perception of China being crowded is accurate. While Asian investors are more bullish, US investors haven’t been fully on board with the “everything is great” narrative. A recent Morgan Stanley analysis showed that American fund managers have actually kept their underweight positions on China unchanged in recent months.

    Secondly, there’s no clear catalyst to threaten the China recovery narrative when people are just returning to their work and when the policy objective is to get the economy going again. Until the recovery is well underway, it’s hard to prove the markets’ expectations on growth are unreasonable.

    But leaving aside the question of whether the China trade is crowded or not, the volatility that the Chinese markets has shown over the past year clearly reduces the attractiveness for long-term investors.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 23:40

  • After Teacher Shot By 6-Year-Old, Staff And Parents Blame Tolerance Of Violent Kids
    After Teacher Shot By 6-Year-Old, Staff And Parents Blame Tolerance Of Violent Kids

    Shock over the shooting of a teacher by a 6-year-old in Newport News, Virginia has turned into anger, as both parents and staff say district officials tolerate violent students to bolster school ratings. 

    On Jan. 6, a first-grader fired a single pistol shot at his 24-year-old teacher, Abby Zwermer. A bullet passed through her hand and into her chest, sending her to a hospital with a life-threatening wound. Last week, school officials say a staff member searched the shooter’s backback earlier that morning — after someone tipped them to the possibility he was armed — but didn’t find the weapon. 

    Tuesday brought the first board meeting of Newport News Public Schools since the incident — and a stream of angry teachers and parents took to the podium to condemn a culture in which the pursuit of favorable district statistics means fostering an increasingly dangerous environment.  

    Teacher Djifa Lee speaks at Tuesday’s Newport News Public Schools board meeting as superintendent George Parker listens (Billy Schuerman/The Virginian-Pilot via AP)

    Former school psychologist Amber Thomas left the district after a 10-year career.  “A school counselor and I were often called to intervene with explosive behaviors, and the administrator would see what was going on and turn around and walk the other way,” Thomas told the board. 

    “We see students being assaulted (and) we see teachers being assaulted…daily,” said elementary teacher Djifa Lee. “[Disciplinary] referrals are so closely tied to accreditation, and this puts educators and office staff or administrators in a tough position.”

    A former employee told WAVY that, on multiple occasions, she initiated disciplinary referrals, but administrators failed to schedule follow-up meetings with parents and teachers. She says peers had similar experiences. 

    “Every day in every one of our schools, teachers, students and other staff members are being hurt,” said high school librarian Nicole Cooke. “Every day, they’re hit. They’re bitten. They’re beaten. And [violent children] are allowed to stay so that our numbers look good.”

    In a November board meeting, the district touted a 40% decline in disciplinary incidents and a 19% decrease in students being removed from instruction.  

    “Ask any teacher in this school division why discipline incidents decline, and I have a feeling the response will be the same: Infraction numbers are down because incidents are not always officially reported,” said Cindy Connell, a middle school teacher in the district. 

    Wary of officials’ focus on making the district’s statistics look better, Sarah Marchese, president of a high school Parent Teacher Student Association, asked for an external investigation of the disciplinary policies to be reviewed by an outside, impartial party. 

    “Our administrators are under an intense pressure to make everything appear better than it is in reality,” Connell told AP.

    The incident was the third shooting in the district since September 2021. “Enough is enough. What will it take? I pray it is not a fourth shooting, because that blood will be on your hands,” said parent John Krikorian. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 23:20

  • CDC Knowingly Left Serious Adverse Events Off Post-Vaccination Surveys, Documents Show
    CDC Knowingly Left Serious Adverse Events Off Post-Vaccination Surveys, Documents Show

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) didn’t include serious adverse events like heart inflammation on post-vaccination surveys even though the agency knew the issues could be linked to COVID-19 vaccines, documents show.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters in Atlanta, Ga., on April 23, 2020. (Tami Chappell/AFP via Getty Images)

    Even before the surveys were rolled out in December 2020 after the first vaccines were authorized, the CDC knew that myocarditis—a form of heart inflammation since confirmed as being caused by the Pfizer and Moderna shots—and other serious adverse events were of “special interest” when it came to the vaccines, according to a newly disclosed version of the protocol for the survey system.

    The Nov. 19, 2020, protocol (pdf) for V-safe, the survey system, lists myocarditis, stroke, death, and a dozen “prespecified medical conditions.” The protocol was obtained by the Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN), a nonprofit that seeks transparency around health information. All of the conditions can cause severe symptoms.

    V-safe is a system of surveys that was introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic to monitor vaccine safety. It was developed and is managed by the CDC.

    Updated versions of the protocol list the same 15 adverse events.

    None of the conditions were included in the actual surveys.

    Respondents could check boxes if they experienced certain symptoms, but only 10 lower-level problems such as fever and nausea were listed as options.

    “It’s deeply troubling that the CDC would construct V-safe in a manner that does not permit it to be able to easily assess the rate of harm from adverse events the CDC had already identified as potentially being caused by these products,” Aaron Siri, a lawyer representing ICAN, told The Epoch Times. “This calls into question what the CDC was really trying to accomplish with V-safe. Was it trying to assess the actual safety of these products? Or was it trying to design a system that would be more likely to affirm its previous public pronouncements regarding the safety of these products?”

    The CDC did not respond to a request for comment for this article.

    V-Safe Data Finally Made Public

    The CDC rolled V-safe out in December 2020. Americans were told to use the surveys, which are only available through smartphones, to report how they felt after vaccination.

    “Through V-safe, you can quickly tell CDC if you have any side effects after getting the COVID-19 vaccine,” one poster promoting the tool stated.

    Users were asked how they felt, whether they had a fever, their temperature, and common symptoms. They were also asked whether they were unable to work or go about their daily activities, and whether they needed medical care.

    About 10 million people signed up through July 31, 2022.

    The CDC has described the results of V-safe in multiple studies, but refused to release the raw data until ICAN brought litigation against it. Data released to ICAN in October 2022 showed that more than 3.2 million people sought medical attention or missed school, work, or other normal activities following vaccination.

    The CDC posted some of the v-safe data on Dec. 1, 2022, several months after a self-imposed deadline passed.

    Hiding Free-Text Entries

    V-safe users could report the serious adverse events, but only if they wrote them out in a free-text field.

    The prompt was, “Any other symptoms or health conditions you want to report.”

    The CDC has resisted releasing the results from the field, insisting that it would be too onerous to review the 6.8 million entries for personally identifiable information (PII), according to a joint status report made to the court in November 2022.

    The agency declined a request from ICAN to provide a random sample of a few hundred entries, which plaintiffs say would back their argument that the entries likely hold little or no PII such as names and addresses.

    The entries are important because they would show how many respondents reported experiencing the prespecified adverse events like heart inflammation.

    The CDC instead offered to review all the entries and convert them into medical codes, according to the filing.

    “It was apparently willing to do this because, even though it would have been more time consuming and complex then simply reviewing for PII, this approach would permit the CDC to hide from the public most of what is actually written in the free-text fields,” ICAN said in the document.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 23:00

  • US Finalizing Next Ukraine Military Aid Package At $2.6 Billion
    US Finalizing Next Ukraine Military Aid Package At $2.6 Billion

    The US is in the final stages of preparing a massive new military aid package to Ukraine which will total as much as $2.6 billion, the Associated Press previewed Wednesday night, and its to include nearly 100 Stryker combat vehicles – marking the first time the Stryker will be introduced to the Ukrainian battlefield – and at least 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles.

    File image, USAF

    It could be announced by the end of the week, and is expected to rank among the biggest single packages unveiled since the start of the war. When pressed for further details, State Department spokesman Ned Price simply said, “Two words: stay tuned.”

    Similar to Bradley vehicles, the Stryker moves infantry across the battlefield, but are lighter and faster than the Bradley. “What we’re trying to look at is the mix of armored and mechanized forces that make sense,” undersecretary of defense for policy Colin Kahl said separately on Wednesday.

    “The Russians are really digging in. They’re digging in. They’re digging trenches, they’re putting in these dragon’s teeth, laying mines. They’re really trying to fortify that that FLOT, that forward line of troops,” Kahl continued.

    “To enable the Ukrainians to break through given Russian defenses, the emphasis has been shifted to enabling them to combine fire and maneuver in a way that will prove to be more effective.”

    But the real question is whether Washington will sign off on going past the ‘light tanks’ or mere troop carriers that it has currently limited itself to providing. The Scholz government of Germany surprised allies this week in saying it’s ready to approve sending German-manufactured Leopard tanks to Ukraine only if Washington leads the way in approving its own heavy tanks.

    “Germany won’t allow allies to ship German-made tanks to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia nor send its own systems unless the U.S. agrees to send American-made battle tanks, senior German officials said on Wednesday,” according to The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday.

    But given Berlin knew that the Biden administration has shut the door on approving American M1 Abrams (at least for now), this could have been a ploy to effectively end the debate and take the pressure off the Scholz government.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 22:40

  • Another Power Substation Damaged By Alleged Gunfire: Officials
    Another Power Substation Damaged By Alleged Gunfire: Officials

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Another power substation in North Carolina was damaged due to alleged gunfire—the third such incident in recent weeks—officials have confirmed.

    An electrical substation after winter weather caused electricity blackouts in Houston, Texas, on Feb. 20, 2021. (Go Nakamura/Reuters)

    EnergyUnited said officials discovered an “equipment issue” at the Pleasant Hill Substation in Thomasville on Jan. 17. Thomasville is about an hour from Moore County, where two other substations were damaged.

    When crew members were sent to investigate the matter, they “discovered damage to the substation transformer from an apparent gunshot,” the firm said. “The damage was quickly assessed and contained to mitigate the impact to members in the Pleasant Hill area and law enforcement officials were notified.”

    Customers who are served by the Pleasant Hill Substation didn’t experience any power outages due to the damage, EnergyUnited added. The Randolph County Sheriff’s Office said that investigators canvassed the station and later said they believe the shooting occurred at around 3 a.m. local time on Jan. 17.

    The FBI and North Carolina State Bureau of Investigations were notified about the alleged gunfire, the sheriff’s office said. Investigations are ongoing.

    “The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force responded to conduct a parallel investigation,” the statement also said. No suspects have been named, and no arrests were made.

    “EnergyUnited continually strives to deliver safe, reliable energy to its members,” Steve McCachern, vice president of energy delivery for EnergyUnited, said in a statement. “While we are glad that our members did not experience any service interruptions, we take this matter very seriously and are currently investigating the incident.”

    On Dec. 3, 2022, gunshots were fired at two substations in Moore County that left some 45,000 customers without power for several days. In that case, no suspects have been apprehended and no motive has been disclosed.

    Officials said that a person or persons drove to the Duke Energy-operated substations and opened fire, causing significant damage. North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said at the time that the Moore County incident “raises a new level of threat” while adding that federal and state officials are working to “harden our infrastructure where that’s necessary and work to prevent future damage.”

    Duke Energy spokesperson Jeff Brooks said in a news conference last month that damage was done to major equipment.

    “Some of this equipment does take a significant amount of work [to be installed]” he said. New substation equipment must be handled carefully and tested before it’s ready to serve the grid.

    Workers work on equipment at the West End Substation, at 6910 NC Hwy 211 in West End, N.C., on Dec. 5, 2022, where a serious attack on critical infrastructure has caused a power outage to many around Southern Pines, N.C. (Karl B DeBlaker/AP Photo)

    Around the same time, the Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of a “heightened threat environment” ahead of the Christmas holiday season. Faith-based institutions, government buildings, U.S. infrastructure, schools, and public gatherings could be targeted by groups with “a range of ideological beliefs” and “personal grievances,” the agency said on Nov. 30, 2022.

    Nevada Incident

    Earlier in January, officials in Nevada said a man was facing terrorism-related charges after driving his car to a solar power plant, dousing it with gasoline, and setting it on fire. An employee told local media that the fire caused “major damage” and estimated it would take two years to receive replacement parts.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 22:20

  • Project Veritas Exposes Non-Profit That Hides Critical Race Theory In School Curriculum
    Project Veritas Exposes Non-Profit That Hides Critical Race Theory In School Curriculum

    The conflict over Critical Race Theory in schools boils down to two basic responses from the political left – They claim that there is no such thing as “CRT” in the way that conservatives see it, and that the accusation it is being used to indoctrinate young children is a “right wing conspiracy theory.”  Or, when they get caught they claim CRT is nothing more than an accurate portrayal of American history inclusive to minorities that has been suppressed because of “bigotry.” 

    For years the former argument, that CRT does not exist and is not taught in school curriculum, has been the primary argument. 

    Critical Race Theory is the mostly faulty theory that western society today is built on a foundation of systemic racism.  Its root assertion is that all American accomplishments over the past few centuries are owed to slavery and the exploitation of minorities.  In other words, we have to abandon our past because it is inherently racist and “evil” and start over – Using the political left’s ideals as a framework, of course.

    CRT is a product of the Marxist concept of deconstruction.  The purpose of such products is to dismantle the foundations and historical relationships of a target society, to make people hate their own heritage so that they are easier to manipulate towards a new leftist Utopian standard.

    States like Florida have begun to actively monitor school textbooks and curriculum to identify a possible invasion of CRT and other woke propaganda.  This has led to a flurry of angry attacks from leftists, who say it is paranoia akin to “book burning” and censorship.  The accusation is hypocritical considering the left’s rampant censorship over the past few years, but whenever they react so viciously to a simple thing like a state government checking the contents of textbooks before they buy them with public tax dollars, then you know that state is hovering very close to something leftists don’t want them to discover.

    Florida found CRT and leftist propaganda in at least 41% of the textbooks slated to be purchased by the state for the coming school year, and they gave numerous examples of CRT related content as the media attacked.  With red states starting to vet curriculum, leftists are attempting to hide their ideology more carefully using “non-profit” curriculum creators as middle men that can get around state laws.  

    Project Veritas recently exposed one of these non-profit groups in Georgia, called The Teaching Lab, and how they inject CRT into public schools by “not calling it CRT” and selling textbooks and other products directly to school districts without the state knowing the contents.  

    An important detail to note here is that Teaching Lab employee Quintin Bostic admits that their products are indeed CRT.  Also, he admits that the group is funded by very rich establishment leftists including MacKenzie Scott, now ex-wife of Amazon mogul Jeff Bezos.  

    The intrusion of political activism into the American school system is a fundamental violation of the public trust and of state law in many places.  It is unacceptable for children to be targeted for ideological indoctrination in school when they are supposed to be taught basic academics.  Imparting to young people the ability to function and succeed in adulthood is a key task of the public school system; instead leftists see schools as rich hunting grounds for conversion.  In this way, they destroy the future of the country by replacing useful knowledge and skills with brainwashing and cultism.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 22:00

  • Bovard: Will The Corrupt FBI Come To Biden's Rescue?
    Bovard: Will The Corrupt FBI Come To Biden’s Rescue?

    Authored by Jim Bovard,

    The White House is being whipsawed by the discovery of secret documents from President Joe Biden’s vice presidency recklessly stored around his garage, his Delaware house and his rented Washington office. The appointment of a special counsel to investigate Biden’s classified-document violations could imperil the president’s survival. But Biden may be saved by the charades the FBI concocted to rescue Hillary Clinton.

    But breaking news Tuesday night revealed the investigation may already be turning into a farce. Amazingly, the Justice Department is permitting Biden’s personal lawyers to control the evidence — without the FBI.

    Federal law penalizes the removal or mishandling of classified documents via “gross negligence” by up to 10 years in prison. The number of clearly marked confidential documents discovered on Biden’s turfs is up to 20 — all of which were supposedly “inadvertently misplaced” (for at least six years), per White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.

    It looks bad — but the FBI got Hillary out of a worse legal tar pit.

    Clinton’s presidential campaign was roiled by the disclosure she’d used an insecure private email server to handle top-secret documents while she was secretary of state from 2009 to 2013. In 2015, the FBI Counterintelligence Division opened a criminal investigation of the “potential unauthorized storage of classified information on an unauthorized system.”

    The FBI treated Clinton and her coterie like royalty worthy of endless deference, according to a 2018 report by the Justice Department inspector general. The FBI agreed to destroy the laptops of top Clinton aides after a limited examination of their contents (including a promise not to examine any post-Jan. 31, 2015, emails or content). When BleachBit software and hammers were used to destroy email evidence under congressional subpoena, the FBI treated it as a harmless error.

    The IG criticized federal investigators for relying on “rapport building” with Team Hillary instead of using subpoenas to compel the discovery of key evidence. The IG recommended possible disciplinary penalties for five FBI employees who sent blatant anti-Trump texts (some of those agents later staffed special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of President Donald Trump).

    FBI investigators shrugged off every brazen deceit they encountered. The IG report quoted an unnamed FBI agent responding to a fellow agent’s question on how an interview went with a witness who worked with the Clintons at their Chappaqua residence: “Awesome. Lied his ass off. Went from never inside the scif [sensitive compartmented information facility for classified documents] at res [residence], to looked in when it was being constructed, to removed the trash twice, to troubleshot the secure fax with HRC a couple times, to everytime there was a secure fax i did it with HRC. Ridic.”

    The agency waited until the end of the investigation in July 2016 to question Clinton and refused to videotape that crucial interview. Bizarrely, the FBI planned to absolve her “absent a confession” by Clinton during the interview, the IG report noted.

    There was no question of whether Clinton violated federal law, since she received numerous classified emails marked with “(C)” on her private server. The IG report notes, “According to the [FBI memo] from Clinton’s interview, Clinton told the FBI that she did not know what the ‘(C)’ meant and ‘speculated it was a reference to paragraphs ranked in alphabetical order.’”

    The report declared, “Witnesses told us, and contemporaneous emails show, that the FBI and Department officials who attended Clinton’s interview found that her claim that she did not understand the significance of the ‘(C)’ marking strained credulity. [FBI] Agent 1 stated, ‘I filed that in the bucket of hard-to-impossible to believe.’”

    Shortly after that interview, FBI chief James Comey publicly announced that “no charges are appropriate” because Hillary didn’t intend to violate a federal law that had no intent requirement.

    Comey told the inspector general, “By her demeanor, she was credible and open and all that kind of stuff” in her interview.

    A video recording of the showdown (especially that alphabet line) would have enabled Americans to judge both Clinton and the FBI. But minimizing disclosures maximized the arbitrary power of Comey and other FBI officials in a landmark political case.

    House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) Friday condemned Biden’s “three strikes against transparency” and declared it was “alarming” that “Biden aides were combing through documents knowing there would be a special counsel appointed.” Some Republicans, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, are clamoring for full FBI raids of Biden properties.

    Unfortunately, there may be no reliable way to conduct a full, honest search when the suspect is the most powerful individual in the land. Why expect the FBI to be more honest with Biden’s secret stashes than with Hunter Biden’s laptop?

    Perhaps the investigation will be “fixed” even before the FBI arrives on the scene. After illegally stored confidential documents in Biden’s DC office turned up, the Justice Department prevented FBI agents from being present for searches at his other locales. Instead, Biden’s personal attorneys were permitted to check out the properties and trusted to report if they found any more evidence incriminating their boss, The Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday.

    Democrats are boasting that Biden is “cooperating” with the investigation. But why wouldn’t he “cooperate” when the Justice Department is letting Biden’s tools control the evidence?

    The Journal said law-enforcement officials justified keeping the FBI out of the investigation to “preserve the [Justice Dept.] ability to take a tougher line, including executing a future search warrant, if negotiations ever turned hostile.” As with the Hillary Clinton investigation, “rapport building” is trumping finding smoking guns.

    The FBI’s treatment of Hillary Clinton vivifies how far federal law enforcement will twist the law to absolve the nation’s political elite. Will the latest Biden scandal be dead-ended by the old Roman question, “Who guards the guardians”?

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 21:40

  • Traders Book Huge Profits By Mixing, Reselling Cheap Russian Oil
    Traders Book Huge Profits By Mixing, Reselling Cheap Russian Oil

    A ban on Russian crude oil by the European Union and the US went into effect late last year, forcing Russia to find more buyers in the eastern part of the world. Besides China’s and India’s surging appetite for Russian crude imports, a flood of cheap oil is pouring into Singapore. It’s being blended and then re-exported globally as traders reap huge profits. Recall that Russian energy products were sold to China and repackaged for European markets last summer. 

    Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Europe was Moscow’s largest crude and refined petroleum products customer. But those days are over as Western sanctions forced Russia to rejigger its energy supply chains towards the East. 

    Moscow realized besides expanding pipelines to Asia and elsewhere, which could take years to develop infrastructure to increase flows, a fleet of shadow tankers would be its best bet to transport the oil. 

    Now demand is soaring in Singapore for storage tanks as inexpensive Russian crude finds a home, according to Bloomberg. 

    Tank space in the city-state is being snapped up due to a rise in interest and profits from mixing cheap fuel supplies from Russia with shipments from other sources, according to an executive from a tank operator and a consultant who advises traders on the matter. This process can help to obscure the cargoes’ origins, they said.

    Unlike many Western countries, Singapore has yet to ban Russian oil or petroleum products, although banks based in the country are prohibited from financing or dealing directly with Russian countries. 

    In the coming weeks, Europe prepares to enforce new sanctions on Russian petroleum products, which will only increase Russia-to-Asia flows that will be pushed to hubs like ones in Singapore, mixing cheap Russian fuels with other sources for re-distribution globally. 

    “We have observed an increase in the number of inquiries of short/spot-term storage in the period leading up to December,” a spokesman for oil storage company Advario Asia Pacific said via e-mail.

    Six-month leases for Singapore fuel oil or crude oil storage jumped by as much as 20% last year, according to local tank operator firms, including Advario, Jurong Port, Horizon, and Royal Vopak. 

    Ship tracking data by Vortexa Ltd. showed oil-receiving terminals more than doubled volumes of Russian naphtha and fuel oil in December versus a year ago. Terminals received 2.6 million barrels of naphtha, nearly 40 times higher than the volume one year ago. 

    Russian naphtha sitting in Singapore tank farms is being quickly re-exported to other Asia markets, according to Armaan Ashraf, global head of natural gas liquids at industry consultant FGE. 

    William Tan, senior vice president of fuel consultancy Miyabi Industries, said Singapore tank farm storage is becoming very popular with traders taking in cheap Russian crude, blending it, and exporting it elsewhere for “very good” profit margins. He said traders are reaping 20% profit margins. 

    Russia will need to expand its shadow fleet tankers as energy supply chains are rejiggered because of Western sanctions. Traders are capitalizing on these new trade flows. Still, the West has yet to cripple Russia but only bring forward a world where energy is traded in anything but dollars.  

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 21:20

  • US Considering Helping Ukraine Strike Crimea
    US Considering Helping Ukraine Strike Crimea

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    The New York Times reported Wednesday that the US is warming to the idea of helping Ukraine strike Crimea, something the Biden administration has previously avoided due to the risk of provoking a major response from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    Citing unnamed US officials, the report said that after months of discussions with Ukrainian officials, the administration is now “starting to concede that Kyiv may need the power to strike the Russian sanctuary, even if such a move increases the risk of escalation.”

    The October Crimea bridge attack, Getty Images via AFP

    President Biden is still holding off sending the longer-range missiles that could hit targets in Crimea that Ukraine is seeking. But the US is discussing with Ukrainian officials how to attack the land bridge to Crimea Russia has secured for itself using US-provided weapons, such as US-provided HIMARS rocket systems and Bradley Fighting Vehicles.

    The US, for the first time, pledged to send 50 Bradleys in a possibly $3 billion weapons package that was announced earlier this month. The Bradleys could potentially help Ukraine go on the offensive, and a US official said the HIMARS could be used to hit Russian supply lines coming out of Crimea from Ukraine’s line in Kherson.

    A senior US official told the Times that US and Ukrainian officials are set to meet in Germany this week to wargame out a potential offensive against Russia in southern Ukraine. But the report said that even with the additional military aid, the Biden administration doesn’t think Ukraine can actually take Crimea from Russia.

    The US thinking is that Crimea needs to be under threat to give Ukraine leverage for any future negotiations. Even though the risk of escalation is extremely high, US officials said there has been a “dampening of fears that targeting Crimea would drive Mr. Putin to use a tactical nuclear weapon.”

    The lessening concern about Putin resorting to nukes appears to be based only on the fact that he hasn’t used any up to this point. This reflects a December report from The Times of London that said the Pentagon was tacitly backing Ukrainian attacks inside Russia because Putin didn’t respond to earlier attacks with a tactical nuclear weapon or by attacking NATO territory.

    The New York Times report quoted Dara Massicot, a researcher from the RAND Corporation, who claimed that “Crimea has already been hit many times without a massive escalation from the Kremlin.” But Massicot’s claim is false as Russia began launching missile strikes on vital Ukrainian infrastructure in response to the October truck bombing of the Crimean Bridge.

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    Before the bridge bombing, Russia didn’t launch large-scale attacks on infrastructure in Ukraine, but now such bombardments have become routine, and millions of Ukrainians are struggling to power and heat their homes.

    US officials admit that they don’t know how Putin would respond to the US supporting Ukrainian attacks on Crimea. Putin has previously warned he could use nuclear weapons to protect Russia’s “territorial integrity,” and Russia’s military doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons if the country faces an “existential threat.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 21:00

  • Auto Crisis Worsens As Rate Of Severely Delinquent Loans Hits 2009 Levels
    Auto Crisis Worsens As Rate Of Severely Delinquent Loans Hits 2009 Levels

    An alarming number of Americans with auto loans are struggling to make monthly payments. Auto loan performance saw further deterioration in December, and loan delinquencies jumped. Of all loans, severely delinquent ones have reached the highest rate since the financial crisis about 15 years ago. 

    Recall last month. We pointed out the auto sector finds itself at a critical inflection point as a crushing auto loan crisis nears. The note was titled “Perfect Storm Arrives: “Massive Wave” Of Car Repossessions And Loan Defaults To Trigger Auto Market Disaster, Cripple US Economy.” It provides readers with a roadmap and how the dominos might fall in triggering what Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently warned: “Potentially, the biggest financial crisis ever.” 

    New bone-chilling data via Cox Automotive sheds light on the rapidly deteriorating auto loan market. The report said loans delinquent by more than two months increased by 5.3% and jumped 26.7% from a year ago.

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    And here’s where the alarm bells start sounding:

    Of all loans, 1.84% were severely delinquent, which was an increase from 1.74% in November and the highest rate since February 2009.

     In December, 7.11% of subprime loans were severely delinquent, increasing from 6.75% the prior month. The subprime severe delinquency rate was 163 basis points higher than a year ago, and the December rate was the highest in the data series back to 2006.

    Cox Automotive said even though an increasing amount of people are missing loan payments — this has yet to manifest into defaults:

     Loan defaults declined 13.5% from November but were up 16.9% from a year ago. The annualized auto loan default rate in December was 2.56%, which was lower than the 2.98% rate in December 2019. The default rate in 2022 was 2.28%, up from a low of 1.98% last year but still lower than the 2.90% rate in 2019.

    And perhaps the reason why defaults have yet to surge is that lenders don’t consider the borrower to be in default until 90 to 120 days late of insufficient payments. This might suggest that a default wave could be hitting over the next few quarters as consumers are tapped out by 20 months of negative real wave growth, depleted personal savings, and maxed-out credit cards. All those folks who bought cars they didn’t need nor could afford with +$1,000 monthly payments during Covid will be financially ruined when the next recession hits. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 20:40

  • The Great Dropout: Why 1.4 Million Children Left Public Schools In 2020 And Where They Went
    The Great Dropout: Why 1.4 Million Children Left Public Schools In 2020 And Where They Went

    Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Over a million children left public schools in 2020, a migration that came on the heels of school lockdowns and masking requirements, and was hastened by increased parental dissatisfaction with K-12 education.

    Principal William Shipp opens the door to direct unmasked students to the main office of Woodgrove High School in Purcellville, Va., on Feb. 2, 2022. (Courtesy of Erin Thomas)

    Enrollment in U.S. public schools declined by 1.4 million students between fall 2019 and fall 2020, dipping to 49.4 million, a loss of nearly 3 percent, according to data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES).

    The decline may be closer to 2 million, according to a report by Education Next showing that traditional public school enrollment as a percentage of all school enrollment declined sharply between 2020 and 2022.

    Enrollment in traditional public schools fell from 81 to 76.5 percent of total enrollment during that period, while enrollment in public charter schools, private schools, and homeschooling grew by a combined 4.5 percent.

    Those numbers indicate that nearly 2 million students left traditional public schools for other educational options over the previous three years.

    In many cases, the disruption in learning due to COVID-19 policies was the catalyst many parents needed to make the jump away from public schools to charter schools, private schools, and homeschooling.

    Based on recent enrollment figures and the comfort many parents express with their decision to opt out of public schools, it appears the missing millions will not return.

    Dissatisfaction With Learning

    Parent satisfaction with K-12 education plunged between 2019 and 2022, according to GALLUP. Prior to the onset of COVID-19, 51 percent of parents said they were either completely or somewhat satisfied with their child’s education. Three years later, that satisfaction level was 42 percent, the lowest in over 20 years.

    A student works on a computer at a Provo, Utah, school on Feb. 10, 2021. (George Frey/Getty Images)

    Nearly a quarter of Americans, 23 percent, said they were completely dissatisfied with their child’s education.

    Parent interviews conducted by The Epoch Times revealed that distance learning during school lockdowns provided a glimpse into the classroom that made parents question their school’s ability to educate their children.

    “For a while, [our kids] were getting homework assigned to them by their teachers … but there was no teaching going on,” Matt Mohler of Tallahassee, Florida, said. He moved his children from a highly public school to a classical charter school in the fall of 2020.

    “Once a week they’d all get together on a classroom call, and that was the extent of what the teachers were doing. We realized that we weren’t getting a lot of effort out of the teachers.”

    “The distance learning was eye-opening,” said Maria Nicholas of Whittier, California, who began homeschooling her son in the fall of 2021. She said she would not have considered homeschooling if not for the lockdown, but seeing how her middle-school son thrived while at home rather than in the classroom was a factor in her decision.

    Shireen Qudosi of Orange County, California, took her autistic son out of public school in October 2020. “There wasn’t even a functioning curriculum in place, which access into the classroom through remote learning confirmed.”

    Mask and Vaccine Requirements

    In January 2022, 65 percent of public schools tracked by data site Burbio had student masking requirements. Parent and student protests against mandatory masking erupted that month in New York, California, and Massachusetts.

    The combination of public school mask policies and state vaccine mandates drove some parents to seek alternatives.

    Longtime home-schooler Christine Hamman saw an influx of parents to her home-school group during the last two years. “COVID added people who are anti-vax and anti-masking,” she said. “Mostly, parents didn’t want their kids masked for six hours a day.”

    “When SB 276 was signed, we realized we’d be homeschooling all of our children,” said Sara Cruz, speaking of a California law expanding vaccine requirements for schoolchildren. Cruz began home-schooling during the current school year.

    “I’m on the other end of this spectrum,” Nicholas said.

    “I’m for it, and I would like more people to have it,” she said, but seeing the number of people unmasked and unvaccinated at her school caused concern for her son’s health. “I thought they weren’t doing enough to keep the kids safe,” she said, which was a factor in her choice to withdraw.

    Parents demonstrate at a Long Island Loud Majority protest against state-mandated masks for schoolchildren on Jan. 26, 2022, at the Suffolk County government offices. (Dave Paone/The Epoch Times)

    Other reasons for leaving public schools included concern over appropriate teaching on social issues like sex, gender, and drug abuse, as well as student safety.

    Parents don’t want their children exposed to the “radical indoctrination that the public schools are doing,” J. Allen Weston, Executive Director of the American Home School Association, told The Epoch Times.

    “The school had a ‘Say No to Drugs’ campaign, but they were going into detail on what drugs were out there,” Mohler said, speaking of his daughter’s second-grade class.

    “If they’re going to learn about that, they’re going to learn about that from me.”

    Other parents expressed concern over bullying, the stress created by active-shooter drills, and the availability of sexual content on smartphones carried by other students.

    Where They Went

    Most parents who opted out of public schools over the last few years chose other educational options for their kids. Homeschooling was the choice for many, though the number of children enrolled is difficult to estimate.

    “It is impossible to know the exact numbers because more than half of the states do not require parents to register as homeschoolers. Or if they are required, then the state does not keep count,” Weston said. He reported that his organization grew by a factor of 20 over the last three years.

    Heather Martinson, the founder of Celebration Education home-school co-op, told The Epoch Times the Facebook group for homeschoolers in her area tripled to 12,000 members since January 2020.

    Public charter schools, which had more than doubled to 3.4 million in the preceding decade, enrolled another 270,000 students between 2019 and 2021, according to the National Association of Public Charter Schools (NAPCS).

    Students in uniform at Voice Charter School of New York, Corona, Queens, Sept. 18, 2014. (Petr Svab/Epoch Times)

    Private school enrollment grew as well, adding over 500,000 in 2020 reach 11.1 million, according to data site Statista. A study by the CATO Institute shows that more private schools gained enrollment than lost it during 2020-21.

    Some students who left public schools in 2020 entered the workforce. About 2 million students dropped out of high school that year, according to NCES.

    In 2017, the NCES found that 47 percent of high school dropouts were employed. If the percentage remained similar in 2020, that would mean over 900,000 students left school for work that year.

    Other Shifts

    Though not reflected in national totals, public school enrollment in large cities has been in decline for up to 20 years in some cases. These losses appear to be driven more by demographic changes than by parents opting out of public schools.

    Enrollment in Denver public schools dropped 3 percent from 2019 to 2021, a change driven in part by low birth rates and a shrinking population, according to education news site Chalkbeat.

    New York City’s public school enrollment decreased by some 38,000 students in 2020, but 9,376 of them simply crossed the river to New Jersey according to the website Gothamist. More than 5,100 students moved from New York to Pennsylvania that year, and another 5,600 to Florida.

    Also, the population of New York state was in decline during that time. The state lost over 350,000 to domestic migration between July 2020 and July 2021.

    Enrollment in Los Angeles public schools has dropped 42 percent since the early 2000s, according to the online publication EdSource. LA Unified School District Superintendent Alberto Carvalho told journalists in July that recent losses are attributable partly to people moving to other states because of political ideology or the desire for lower taxes.

    Return Unlikely

    Relatively few students who withdrew from public school in 2020 have returned so far. Public school enrollment rebounded just 0.2 percent in 2021, including first-time enrollees, and remains at its lowest level since 2010.

    Parents who made the choice to withdraw from public school during the last two years are highly satisfied with their choice, according to a report from NAPCS.

    Nearly 90 percent of families who changed school types experienced a positive change as a result of the switch, with 57 percent saying their child was happier, according to NAPCS.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 20:20

  • Egg Seizures Skyrocket At US Border As Arbitrageurs Attempt To Capitalize On Poultry Crisis
    Egg Seizures Skyrocket At US Border As Arbitrageurs Attempt To Capitalize On Poultry Crisis

    America’s egg shortage worsens by the week. Supermarkets nationwide are running out of eggs as prices hyperinflate. Egg arbitrage is rising as people attempt to smuggle egg and poultry products across Mexico–US border for resale in the States where they can reap hefty profits. 

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    US Customs and Border Protection reported a 108% increase in egg and poultry seizures at land ports on the border from Oct. 1 to Dec. 31. The uptick in egg smuggling comes as retail prices erupt in the US as the avian flu forced producers to cull tens of millions of birds and egg-laying hens over the last year. 

    “My advice is, don’t bring them over. 

    “If you fail to declare them or try to smuggle them, you face civil penalties,” said CBP Supervisory Agriculture Specialist Charles Payne

    Egg seizures are so rampant that CBP tweeted that smugglers will be slapped with $10,000 fines. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    People have realized there are huge profits in buying a 30-count carton of eggs at $3.40 in Juarez, Mexico, and reselling them in the US. 

    It’s only a matter of time before cartels figure out about this lucrative trade. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 20:00

  • …And Now, The Facebook Files: Emails Reveal The CDC's Role In Silencing COVID-19 Dissent
    …And Now, The Facebook Files: Emails Reveal The CDC’s Role In Silencing COVID-19 Dissent

    Authored by Robby Soave via Reason.com,

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) played a direct role in policing permissible speech on social media throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Confidential emails obtained by Reason show that Facebook moderators were in constant contact with the CDC, and routinely asked government health officials to vet claims relating to the virus, mitigation efforts such as masks, and vaccines.

    For a broader analysis of the federal government’s pandemic-era efforts to suppress free speech—and whether they violated the First Amendment—see Reason‘s March 2023 cover story on the ramifications of these emails. This article provides screenshots of the emails themselves.

    After Elon Musk took control of Twitter, he permitted several independent journalists to peruse the company’s previous communications with the FBI, the CDC, the White House, and government officials elsewhere. These disclosures, which have become known as the Twitter Files, reveal that government bureaucrats put substantial pressure on Twitter to restrict alleged misinformation relating to elections, Hunter Biden, and COVID-19.

    The Facebook Files, which were obtained by Reason as a result of the state of Missouri’s lawsuit against the Biden administration, reveal that the CDC had substantial influence over what users were allowed to discuss on Meta’s platforms: Facebook and Instagram.

    The messages reveal an environment where the CDC kept tabs on Meta’s moderation practices and regularly told the company what the agency wanted it to do.

    For instance, in May 2021, CDC officials began routinely vetting claims about COVID-19 vaccines that had appeared on Facebook. The platform left it up to the federal government to determine which assertions were accurate.

    Facebook’s moderator notes that some of the above claims “would already be violating”—an implicit admission that the CDC’s opinion on the other claims would be a deciding factor in whether the platform would restrict such content. Facebook was clearly a willing participant in this process; moderators repeatedly thanked the CDC for its “help in debunking.”

    Claims vetted by the CDC included whether “COVID-19 is man-made.” The CDC told Facebook that it was “theoretically possible, but extremely unlikely.”

    For months, it was Meta policy to prohibit users from asserting that the pandemic may have originated from a lab leak. The platform revised this policy around the same time that the above email exchange took place.

    By July 2021, the CDC wasn’t just evaluating which claims it thought were false, but whether they could “cause harm.”

    Then, in November, the Food and Drug Administration granted emergency authorization for children to receive Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine. Meta proudly informed the CDC that it would remove false claims—”i.e. the COVID vaccine is not safe for kids”—from Facebook and Instagram. Meta also provided the CDC with a list of new claims about vaccines and asked whether the government thought they could “contribute to vaccine refusals.”

    The CDC determined that this label applied to all such claims.

    It’s important to consider the ramifications. Meta gave the CDC de facto power to police COVID-19 misinformation on the platforms; the CDC took the position that essentially any erroneous claim could contribute to vaccine hesitancy and cause social harm. This was a recipe for a vast silencing across Facebook and Instagram, at the federal government’s implicit behest.

    Meta frequently gave the CDC lists of pandemic-related topics that had gone viral, seeking guidance on how to handle them. And the CDC informed Meta “to be on the lookout” for misinformation stemming from specific alleged misconceptions.

    Meta also kept the CDC apprised of criticism of Anthony Fauci, the White House’s COVID-19 advisor and head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). One email warned the CDC that Facebook users were mocking Fauci for changing his mind about masking and double-masking. The CDC replied that this information was “very helpful.”

    If the tone of Meta’s communications seems overly friendly, it’s worth noting that staffers viewed government employees at the CDC as their “colleagues.” In one email, Meta discussed providing said colleagues with access to a “reporting channel” for COVID-19 misinformation. The list of individuals with access included CDC staff, as well as employees at Reingold, a communications firm advising government health agencies.

    This is just a snapshot of the messages exchanged between the CDC and Meta. They also had regular conference calls. The CDC was not the only arm of the federal government engaged in this work, of course: White House staffers also castigated Meta for not deplatforming alleged misinformation fast enough. President Joe Biden himself accused Facebook of “killing people” in July 2021.

    One wonders whether these condemnations, from Biden and others in his administration—which included the specific threat of punitive regulation if demands for greater censorship were not met—influenced Meta’s decision to delegate COVID-19 content moderation to the CDC.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 19:40

  • SHOT Show Roundup: Newest Firearms, Vehicles, Drones For Special Operations Forces
    SHOT Show Roundup: Newest Firearms, Vehicles, Drones For Special Operations Forces

    SHOT Show 2023 kicked off earlier this week. Recall that we combed through Venetian Expo and Caesars Forum in Las Vegas, revealing some of the most innovative products the defense industry has. 

    We came across AeroVironment’s Kamikaze Switchblade drone (infamous since the Biden administration is sending thousands to Ukraine), grounded-based robots with mounted guns, UTVs for special operations forces, anti-drone guns, handheld thermite breaching tools, armored vehicles, high-tech weapons, and much more. 

    As the SHOT Show winds down, we found the last remaining exhibitors with high-tech guns, firearms accessories, vehicles, and/or gear — many of these defense firms have extensive military contracts. 

    One light vehicle used currently by special operations forces was featured at the SWORD Defense Systems exhibit. 

    The vehicle was outfitted with drones, multiple side mounts for light machine guns, and a turret on top for a heavy machine gun. 

    Walking the Venetian floor, we found the US Army’s new submachine gun. 

    The Army awarded B&T USA the contract for a submachine — this is the first award the service has made for a submachine in half a century. It’s called the APC9K, beating out SIG Sauer, CZ, PTR, and many more to win the contract. 

    In another exhibit, we noticed two fixed-wing drones. 

    A South Korean company had a massive drone that could shoot projectiles. 

    More next-generation military gear. Most everything you’ve seen in Call of Duty: Modern Warfare has become a reality. 

    Here’s the original ArmaLite rifle, known by many as the AR platform.

    Tulsi Gabbard?

    All of those pistol-braced firearms will soon have to be registered as short-barrel rifles with the ATF. There was a lot of chatter about the new pistol brace rule at the event. ATF was also present at the event. 

    Here’s a special ops vehicle with a mini-gun on top. So it’s a Ford truck. What happened to all those Toyota Hilux?

    And last but not least, Ghost Gunner’s latest iteration of the CNC mill to finish 80% lowers to completion. 

    … and that’s a wrap from us at SHOT Show. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 19:20

  • Major Texas University Blocks Students From Using TikTok On Network
    Major Texas University Blocks Students From Using TikTok On Network

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The University of Texas at Austin has banned students from using Chinese-owned TikTok on its Wi-Fi network, in line with Gov. Greg Abbott’s December directive that all state agencies eliminate the cybersecurity risks posed by the video-sharing app.

    In a message to students on Jan. 17, Jeff Neyland, adviser to the university’s president for technology strategy, said the school is taking steps to comply with Abbott’s order.

    “The federal government recognizes the video-sharing mobile application as a national security threat,” the email read. “Several federal agencies and states have already prohibited its use on their government networks and government-issued devices.”

    “Recently, UT Austin began the process of removing TikTok from all government-issued devices, including university-issued cell phones, laptops, tablets, and desktop computers. Today, the university blocked TikTok access on our networks. You are no longer able to access TikTok on any device if you are connected to the university via its wired or WIFI networks.”

    Neyland added that the school is taking steps such as banning students from using the app—which is owned by the Chinese company ByteDance, based in Beijing—in an effort to “eliminate risks to information contained in the university’s network and to our critical infrastructure.”

    Officials Say TikTok Poses Growing Threat

    The message then pointed to Abbott’s Dec. 7 directive, which states that there is a growing threat of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) trying to infiltrate the United States across multiple fronts.

    “While the federal government holds the ultimate responsibility for foreign policy issues, the State also has the responsibility and opportunity to protect itself,” the order states.

    Abbott’s directive also ordered all state agencies to ban employees from downloading or using the app on government-issued devices, including cellphones, laptops, desktops, and other devices capable of internet connectivity, although exceptions are made for law enforcement agencies.

    Additionally, the Republican directed the Texas Department of Public Safety and the Texas Department of Information Resources to develop a plan that other state agencies can deploy to address “vulnerabilities presented by the use of TikTok on personal devices.”

    TikTok has more than 85 million users in the United States.

    According to Abbott and a string of other officials, the app harvests vast amounts of data from its users’ devices, including “when, where, and how they conduct internet activity” and could provide a trove of potentially sensitive information to the CCP.

    In December, FBI Director Chris Wray said that the agency has security concerns about TikTok, including that it could be used by the CCP to collect data on users which could potentially be used to conduct espionage operations.

    A woman walks past the headquarters of ByteDance, the parent company of video sharing app TikTok, in Beijing, on Sept. 16, 2020. (Greg Baker/AFP via Getty Images)

    TikTok Disappointed by Texas University Decision

    TikTok claims it stores U.S. user data on servers outside of China.

    In a statement to The Hill, a company spokesperson said TikTok was “disappointed that so many states are jumping on the political bandwagon to enact policies that will do nothing to advance cybersecurity in their states and are based on unfounded falsehoods about TikTok.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 19:05

  • Hunter Biden Lived In Classified Doc House While Raking In Millions Through Chinese Intelligence Ties
    Hunter Biden Lived In Classified Doc House While Raking In Millions Through Chinese Intelligence Ties

    National security concerns over Joe Biden’s classified document scandal just got worse, as two reports have emerged which place Hunter Biden at the Bidens’ Wilmington, Delaware residence while he was raking in millions of dollars from CCP-linked business dealings.

    First, Seamus Bruner  (researcher for legendary bombshell-dropper Peter Schweizer), reports via Breitbart News, that “While addicted to drugs, cavorting with prostitutes, and making deals with businessmen tied to the highest levels of Chinese intelligence, Hunter Biden lived in the house where Joe Biden stored classified documents.”

    While filling out a background check, Hunter made a crackhead error and listed his ‘rent’ as $49,910 – when in fact that’s the amount of the security deposit and 6 months of rent for prime office space at the prestigious House of Sweden in Washington DC. What’s most interesting, however, is that the dates Hunter listed as living at the Wilmington, DE residence – as claimed on other documents and financial statements – overlap with the period in which multiple Biden family members were taking money from foreign businessmen with connections at the highest levels of Chinese state intelligence services through energy company CEFC. As Bruner further notes, CNN described CEFC as a state-directed entity in 2018.

    CEFC, and at least four of its executives and associates – Ye Jianming, Patrick Ho, Gongwen Dong and Jiaqi Bao, have been linked to the CCP and its military intelligence apparatus. In one case, Hunter described Patrick Ho as “the fucking spy chief of China.”

    CEFC Chairman Ye Jianming (Photo: CEFC)

    More via Breitbart,

    By early 2017, Hunter was directly corresponding with CEFC personnel and flew to Miami in February of that year to meet with CEFC Chairman Ye Jianming. During this trip, Ye Jianming gave Hunter a 3.16 carat diamond valued at approximately $80,000..

    When Hunter’s ex-wife discovered that he had obtained something of such immense value, she had her divorce attorney send an “Urgent” email seeking to determine the whereabouts of the diamond and secure the asset before Hunter could “dissipate” it. Hunter’s attorney offered a shady denial:

    “There is no diamond in Hunter’s possession. I don’t know where Kathleen is getting access to this information, but on this score, what your email purports below is inaccurate.”

    Metadata gleaned from photos of the diamond on the abandoned laptop indicate that Hunter lied about not having the diamond and he in fact had the diamond with him in Wilmington. The current location of the 3.16 carat diamond remains unknown

    After the fateful February 2017 meeting with Ye, and around the time Hunter claimed to have moved into the Wilmington house where classified documents were found, the Bidens’ business with CEFC exploded.

    Nine days after Miami meeting, Hunter received two separate wire transfers of $3 million which the Department of Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network flagged as suspicious.

    We encourage you to read the rest of the Breitbart report here, as it goes into extensive detail.

    Second, the Washington Free Beacon reports that photos from Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop place him at the Wilmington House in July, 2017. Of note, the classified documents were reportedly brought to the house in January of that year.

    The photos ‘are the most concrete evidence to date’ that Hunter – who was actively negotiating a deal with a CCP-linked Chinese energy company – had access to areas of his father’s home where classified documents were stored.

    A Washington Free Beacon review of the laptop found four 2017 photographs of Hunter Biden, clad in a white collared shirt and a camouflage baseball cap, behind the wheel of his father’s 1967 Corvette Stingray. GPS metadata embedded in the photos indicate they were taken within a minute of each other at 6:49 p.m. on July 30 of that year, just outside the president’s Wilmington, Del., residence. The photos show Hunter Biden posing in the vehicle beside two young girls. One appears to be his then-12-year-old niece, Natalie Biden. The other could not be identified.

    Former Secret Service agent and certified cyber forensics expert, Konstantinos Gus Dimitrelos, analyzed the photos and confirmed their authenticity.

    “If requested, I will testify the photographs are genuine and were taken on July 30, 2017,” he told the Free Beacon.

    And as the Beacon further reports – corroborating Breitbart‘s reporting, “At the time the photos were taken, Hunter Biden was negotiating a lucrative business deal with the now-defunct Chinese energy conglomerate CEFC, which was closely tied to the Chinese government. Biden’s former business partner Tony Bobulinski claimed to have met with Joe Biden in person in early May 2017—less than three months before Hunter Biden was pictured taking the wheel of his father’s prized vehicle—to discuss the Biden family’s Chinese business dealings.”

    In total, CEFC paid Hunter Biden $6 million in legal and consulting fees in 2017 and 2018.

    And of course, the same media which suggested the Trumps were Russian operatives based on a hoax – are virtually silent at actual risks to national security posed by the Biden family.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 18:55

  • BlackRock Caves To DeSantis Over ESG
    BlackRock Caves To DeSantis Over ESG

    BlackRock has come to an agreement with the state of Florida after Governor Ron DeSantis (R) declared that asset managers overseeing some of the state’s $220 billion+ in pension funds cannot employ environmental, social and governance (ESG) investment strategies, according to Bloomberg.

    DeSantis and other trustees of the state authority running Florida’s pensions formally changed the plans’ policies on Tuesday to say that decisions surrounding investments “must be based only on pecuniary factors” which do not take into account “social, political, or ideological interests.”

    “To the extent that BlackRock has complied with the governor’s directives to abandon ESG metrics, we appreciate this and celebrate this win for Floridians,” said DeSantis press secretary Bryan Griffin.

    The effort by DeSantis began in August, when he banned state pensions from investing in ESG strategies. In response, Florida’s State Board of Administration began updating contracts with investment managers.

    “The SBA continuously evaluates all managers, and they are all held to the same exacting standards in delivering returns and performance,” reads a statement.

    Besides BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, dozens of other firms manage Florida’s pensions, including Morgan Stanley, Schroders Plc and Artisan Partners, according to filings.

    BlackRock, which managed about $13 billion in Florida pension funds as of December, said it’s “committed to the SBA’s mandate of prioritizing financial performance consistent with their investment objectives,” according to a statement. -Bloomberg

    The agreement between BlackRock and Florida also follows an announced move last year by state CFO Jimmy Patronis, who said he was pulling $2 billion in state funds out of the money manager – which he accused of using Florida’s pensions to fund a “social-engineering project.” He advised the SBA to remove the firm as one of its asset managers as well.

    On Tuesday, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said the ESG issue has turned “ugly.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 18:45

  • High Profile Sound Money Bills Introduced In Mississippi
    High Profile Sound Money Bills Introduced In Mississippi

    Via Money Metals News Service,

    Lawmakers in Jackson have just introduced legislation to exempt gold and silver coins, bars, and rounds from the Mississippi’s state sales tax. Rep. Jill Ford has reintroduced House Bill 508 at the beginning of the 2023 session.

    This year’s legislative effort seeks to build on last year’s momentum.  Last year, Rep. Ford’s sales tax exemption bill passed out of the Mississippi House of Representatives overwhelmingly but it missed a deadline in the Senate needed to receive a hearing.

    Two similar Mississippi bills have already been introduced this session (HB 23 & SB 2019).

    Imposing taxes on the exchange of Federal Reserve notes for monetary metals (i.e. gold and silver) has become an unusual and outmoded practice in the United States… only 8 states still engage in it. 

    Most recently, Alabama, Tennessee, and Virginia last year passed legislation to exempt or extend current sales tax exemptions on the precious metals. With 42 states now having eliminated sales taxes on purchases of gold and silver, Mississippi may be the next state to do so.

    Under the status quo in Mississippi, citizens are discouraged from protecting their savings against the devaluation of the dollar because they are penalized with sales taxation for doing so. No state bordering Mississippi has the same policy. 

    Passage of HB 508 would remove disincentives to holding gold and silver — a move that has become especially pertinent at a time when inflation is ripping through the economy and wrecking havoc on family budgets.

    Eliminating sales taxes on gold and silver is good public policy for several reasons:

    • Levying sales taxes on precious metals is inappropriate. Sales taxes are typically levied on final consumer goods. Computers, shirts, and shoes carry sales taxes because the consumer is “consuming” the good. Precious metals are inherently held for resale, not “consumption,” making the application of sales taxes on precious metals inappropriate.
    • Studies have shown that taxing precious metals is an inefficient form of revenue collection. The results of one study involving Michigan show that any sales tax proceeds a state collects on precious metals are likely surpassed by the state revenue lost from conventions, businesses, and economic activity that are driven out of the state.

    The harm is exacerbated when you consider that all of Mississippi’s neighbors (Alabama, Louisiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee) have already stopped taxing gold and silver.  Most recently, Tennessee ended this tax in 2022, and Arkansas eliminated this tax in 2021.

    • Taxing gold and silver harms in-state businesses. It’s a competitive marketplace, so buyers will take their business to neighboring states, such as Alabama or Louisiana (which have eliminated or reduced sales tax on precious metals), thereby undermining Mississippi jobs. Levying sales tax on precious metals harms in-state businesses who will lose business to out-of-state precious metals dealers. Investors can easily avoid paying $136.50 in sales taxes, for example, on a $1,950 purchase of a one-ounce gold bar.
    • Taxing precious metals is unfair to certain savers and investors. Gold and silver are held as forms of savings and investment. Mississippi does not tax the purchase of stocks, bonds, ETFs, currencies, and other financial instruments. 
    • Taxing precious metals is harmful to citizens attempting to protect their assets. Purchasers of precious metals aren’t fat-cat investors. Most who buy precious metals do so in small increments as a way of saving money. Precious metals investors are purchasing precious metals as a way to preserve their wealth against the damages of inflation. Inflation harms the poorest among us, including pensioners, Mississippians on fixed incomes, wage earners, savers, and more. 

    Meanwhile, no states have permanently reversed their existing exemptions. The state of Louisiana and Ohio both experimented briefly with reimposing sales taxes on precious metals purchases. They both quickly reversed course (within two years) and reinstated their sales tax exemptions on precious metals — because businesses, coin conventions, and state tax revenues were leaving the state.

    In 2023, bills to restore sound, constitutional money have already been introduced in Alaska, West Virginia, South Carolina, Missouri, Minnesota, Tennessee, and more.

    Currently Mississippi is tied for 45th out of 50 in the 2023 Sound Money Index.  Passage of HB 508 would allow the state to increase its ranking dramatically.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 18:25

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Jan 19

Today’s News 19th January 2023

  • Escobar: 'Fragmented World' Sleepwalks Into World War III
    Escobar: ‘Fragmented World’ Sleepwalks Into World War III

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    The self-appointed Davos “elites” are afraid. So afraid. At this week’s World Economic Forum meetings, mastermind Klaus Schwab – displaying his trademark Bond villain act – carped over and over again about a categorical imperative: we need “Cooperation in a Fragmented World”.

    While his diagnosis of “the most critical fragmentation” the world is now mired in is predictably somber, Herr Schwab maintains that “the spirit of Davos is positive” and in the end we may all live happily in a “green sustainable economy.”

    What Davos has been good at this week is showering public opinion with new mantras. There’s “The New System” which, considering the abject failure of the much ballyhooed Great Reset, now looks like a matter of hastily updating the current – rattled – operating system.

    Davos needs new hardware, new programming skills, even a new virus. Yet for the moment all that’s available is a “polycrisis”: or, in Davos speak, a “cluster of related global risks with compounding effects.”

    In plain English: a perfect storm.

    Insufferable bores from that Divide and Rule island in northern Europe have just found out that “geopolitics”, alas, never really entered the tawdry “end of history” tunnel: much to their amazement it’s now centered – again – across the Heartland, as it’s been for most of recorded history.

    They complain about “threatening” geopolitics, which is code for Russia-China, with Iran attached.

    But the icing on the Alpine cake is arrogance/stupidity actually giving away the game: the City of London and its vassals are  livid because the “world Davos made” is fast collapsing.

    Davos did not “make” any world apart from its own simulacrum.

    Davos never got anything right, because these “elites” were always busy eulogizing the Empire of Chaos and its lethal “adventures” across the Global South.

    Davos not only failed to foresee all recent, major economic crises but most of all the current “perfect storm”, linked to the neoliberalism-spawned deindustrialization of the Collective West.

    And, of course, Davos is clueless about the real Reset taking place towards multipolarity.

    Self-described opinion leaders are busy “re-discovering” that Thomas Mann’s The Magic Mountain was set in Davos – “against the backdrop of a deadly disease and an impeding world war” – nearly a century ago.

    Well, nowadays the “disease” – fully bioweaponized – is not exactly deadly per se. And the “impending World War” is in fact being actively encouraged by a cabal of US Straussian neo-cons and neoliberal-cons: an unelected, unaccountable, bipartisan Deep State not even subject to ideology. Centennary war criminal Henry Kissinger still does not get it.

    A Davos panel on de-globalization was rife on non-sequiturs, but at least a dose of reality was provided by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.

    As for China’s vice-premier Liu He, with his vast knowledge of finance, science and technology, at least he was very helpful to lay down Beijing’s five top guidelines for the foreseeable future – beyond the customary imperial Sinophobia.

    China will focus on expanding domestic demand; keeping industrial and supply chains “smooth”; go for the “healthy development of the private sector”; deepen state enterprise reform; and aim for “attractive foreign investment.”

    Russian resistance, American precipice

    Emmanuel Todd was not at Davos. But it was the French anthropologist, historian, demographer and geopolitical analyst who ended up ruffling all the appropriate feathers across the collective West these past few days with a fascinating anthropological object: a reality-based interview.

    Todd spoke to Le Figaro – the newspaper of choice of the French establishment and haute bourgeoisie. The interview was published last Friday on page 22, sandwiched between proverbial Russophobic screeds and with an extremely brief mention on the bottom of the front page. So people really had to work hard to find it.

    Todd joked that he has the – absurd – reputation of a “rebel destroy” in France, while in Japan he’s respected, featured in mainstream media, and his books are published with great success, including the latest (over 100,000 copies sold): “The Third World War Has Already Started”.

    Significantly, this Japanese best seller does not exist in French, considering the whole Paris-based publishing industry toes the EU/NATO line on Ukraine.

    The fact that Todd gets several things right is a minor miracle in the current, abysmally myopic European intellectual landscape (there are other analysts especially in Italy and Germany, but they carry much less weight than Todd).

    So here’s Todd’s concise Greatest Hits.

    • A new World War is on: By “switching from a limited territorial war to a global economic clash, between the collective West on one side and Russia linked to China on the other side, this became a World War”.

    • The Kremlin, says Todd, made a mistake, calculating that a decomposed Ukraine society would collapse right away. Of course he does not get into detail on how Ukraine had been weaponized to the hilt by the NATO military alliance.

    • Todd is spot on when he stresses how Germany and France had become minor partners at NATO and were not aware of what was being plotted in Ukraine militarily: “They did not know that the Americans, British and Poles could allow Ukraine to fight an extended  war. NATO’s fundamental axis now is Washington-London-Warsaw-Kiev.”

    • Todd’s major give away is a killer: “The resistance of Russia’s economy is leading the imperial American system to the precipice. Nobody had foreseen that the Russian economy would hold facing NATO’s ‘economic power’”.

    • Consequently, “monetary and financial American controls over the world may collapse, and with them the possibility for the US of financing for nothing their enormous trade deficit”.

    • And that’s why “we are in an endless war, in a clash where the conclusion is the collapse of one or the other.”

    • On China, Todd might sound like a more pugnacious version of Liu He at Davos: “That’s the fundamental dilemma of the American economy: it cannot face Chinese competition without importing qualified Chinese work force.”

    • As for the Russian economy, “it does accept market rules, but with an important role for the state, and it keeps the flexibility of forming engineers that allow adaptations, industrial and military.”

    • And that bring us, once again, to globalization, in a manner that Davos roundtables were incapable of understanding: “We have delocalized so much of our industrial activity that we don’t know whether our war production may be sustained”.

    • On a more erudite interpretation of that “clash of civilizations” fallacy, Todd goes for soft power and comes up with a startling conclusion: “On 75 percent of the planet, the organization of parenthood  was patrilineal, and that’s why we may identify a strong understanding of the Russian position. For the collective non-West, Russia affirms a reassuring moral conservatism.”

    • So what Moscow has been able to pull off is to “reposition itself as the archetype of a big power, not only “anti-colonialist” but also patrilineal and conservative in terms of traditional mores.”

    Based on all of the above, Todd smashes the myth sold by EU/NATO “elites” – Davos included – that Russia is “isolated”, stressing how votes in the UN and the overall sentiment across the Global South characterizes the war, “described by mainstream media as a conflict over political values, in fact, on a deeper level, as a conflict of anthropological values.”

    Between light and darkness

    Could it be that Russia – alongside the real Quad, as I defined them (with China, India and Iran) – are prevailing in the anthropological stakes?

    The real Quad has all it takes to blossom into a new cross-cultural focus of hope in a “fragmented world”.

    Mix Confucian China (non-dualistic, no transcendental deity, but with the Tao flowing through everything) with Russia (Orthodox Christian, reverencing the divine Sophia); polytheistic India (wheel of rebirth, law of karma); and Shi’ite Iran (Islam preceded by Zoroastrianism, the eternal cosmic battle between Light and Darkness).

    This unity in diversity is certainly more appealing, and uplifting, than the Forever War axis.

    Will the world learn from it? Or, to quote Hegel – “what we learn from history is that nobody learns from history” – are we hopelessly doomed?

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 01/19/2023 – 00:15

  • How Many Cups Of Coffee Do Americans Drink Each Day?
    How Many Cups Of Coffee Do Americans Drink Each Day?

    According to a survey by Statista Consumer Insights, coffee drinkers in the U.S. rarely stick to just one cup a day.

    Among those drinking coffee daily, almost 80 percent drank two or more cups while at home on a weekday. More than half consumed three or more cups on average on such a day.

    Infographic: How Many Cups of Coffee Do Americans Drink Each Day? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    While on the go, U.S. coffee drinkers hold back a little more, with just 20 percent consuming take-away coffee daily and another 24 percent doing so several times a week. More than half of respondents consume coffee to go only once a week or less often, with 13 percent between the ages of 18 and 74 even saying the never did so.

    However, in the latest installment of another Statista survey, only 57 percent of Americans listed coffee as a beverage they regularly consumed.

    America’s favorite type of coffee is good old drip coffee, with 36 percent saying it was their favorite, followed by 11 percent who prefer cappuccino and 10 percent who root for iced coffees.

    Instant coffee was not far behind at 9 percent, however.

    51 percent of American adults agreed with the statement “coffee is pure pleasure to me”.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 23:55

  • The Elite's Obsession With Achieving Total Financial Control
    The Elite’s Obsession With Achieving Total Financial Control

    Authored by Clint Siegner via Money Metals,

    Federal bureaucrats use proxies to stifle all kinds of activities they don’t like. The “Twitter Files” are revealing this tactic to a new wave of Americans, but it has been around a long time.

    The bureaucratic assault on the First Amendment is part of a larger movement to end personal liberty. The ultimate goal may be to assume financial control over the populace through implementation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

    If officials can replace the existing currencies with digital, programmable money, they will claim the power to dictate if, when, and where individuals can spend money as well as what they can spend it on.

    Those who question whether forces inside the federal government are actually pursuing such power may wish to review recent history around the Federal Reserve note “dollar.”

    The effort to control people by targeting their money escalated in 1970 with the Bank Secrecy Act. It targeted cash specifically by requiring banks to report transactions involving more than $10,000.

    Shortly afterward came the end of sound money. Nixon slammed shut the gold window in 1971, severing the last link between the Federal Reserve note and physical gold. That maneuver launched an era of perpetual government deficits, unlimited borrowing, and interventionist central banking.

    Officials seized the opportunity to demand even more reporting in the aftermath of 9/11. The misnamed “Patriot Act” required all merchants (not just banks) to file a Form 8300 on transactions of $10,000 or more. They also required merchants to file an Orwellian “Suspicious Activity Report” on any transaction the merchant judged to be “suspicious.”

    Then the Obama Department of Justice launched Operation Choke Point in 2013.

    Regulators threatened banks with increased scrutiny, controls, and penalties if they did business with certain companies deemed by the Department to be at higher risk for money laundering and fraud.

    Banks responded by closing accounts and/or reducing services to firearms dealers, payday lenders, coin dealers, and businesses in other targeted industries.

    Frank Keating, CEO of the American Bankers Association, didn’t think regulators should be hassling banks about clients “simply doing something government officials don’t like.”

    In 2017, the FDIC settled a series of lawsuits by promising to cease making informal and unwritten “suggestions” about who banks should be doing business with.

    However, banks and financial services providers continue to cancel clients with the audacity to operate disfavored businesses or voice unapproved views.

    JP Morgan Chase sent a letter to Trump supporter and election fraud activist general Michael Flynn in August 2021.

    Chase said, “We decided to close your credit cards on September 18, 2021 because continuing the relationship creates possible reputational risk to our company.“

    The bank later reversed the decision amidst a backlash from conservatives.

    PayPal recently went so far as to insert a provision in their terms of service which allowed the company to charge clients up to $2,500 if, at PayPal’s sole discretion, they were spreading “misinformation.” The company also reversed course after the story went viral and many clients decided to dump the woke company.

    Couple these sorts of stories with the release of the Twitter files, and one should expect to find that bureaucrats are using backchannel communications with banks to push their anti-liberty agenda.

    Stopping “misinformation” and controlling the narrative certainly isn’t all the administrative state hopes to achieve. It is one means to an even more ominous end.

    The Federal Reserve is openly developing a digital currency. It’s part of a long-running globalist agenda to curtail financial privacy and increase control over people.

    Those who accumulate, tangible non-government money like gold and silver are sidestepping the elite’s growing obsession with achieving total financial control.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 23:35

  • "Game-Changer:" High-Powered Laser Steers Lightning Bolts For First Time
    “Game-Changer:” High-Powered Laser Steers Lightning Bolts For First Time

    Scientists on top of a Swiss mountain shot laser pulses into a stormy sky to guide lightning for the first time. This might pave the way for laser-based lightning protection systems for rocket launchpads, military bases, airports, and supertall buildings. There hasn’t been an advance like this in lightning technology since Benjamin Franklin installed the first lightning rod in the 1750s, following an experiment flying a kite with a large metal key during a thunderstorm.

    A team led by Aurélien Houard, a physicist at École Polytechnique in Palaiseau, France, experimented on the Säntis mountain in north-eastern Switzerland in the summer of 2021 with a high-repetition-rate terawatt laser. 

    The results were published Monday in the journal Nature Photonics. They showed how a terawatt-level laser pulse could steer lighting toward a 26-foot rod. 

    “This work paves the way for new atmospheric applications of ultrashort lasers and represents an important step forward in the development of a laser-based lightning protection for airports, launchpads or large infrastructures,” the researchers wrote in the study. 

    Matteo Clerici, a University of Glasgow physicist who wasn’t involved in the research, told WSJ the successful experiment is something “we’ve been dreaming of for decades … and the fact that they managed to do it in an outdoor environment is a very big step.”

    Clerici called the experiment a “game-changer” but noted the technology is in early development and that commercialization could be years away. 

    WSJ showed how the technology works. A laser beam is blasted into the stormy sky and directs lightning toward the intended target, which happens to be a tall tower. 

    Source: WSJ

    Houard disclosed to WSJ that the prototype laser costs about $2.17 billion. The cost is very high versus a traditional lightning rod, but over time, the technology will improve and become cheaper. 

    Laser lightning protection could one day guard critical ground-based systems. Franklin’s 18th-century innovation has now met 21st-century technology. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 23:15

  • Biden Administration Urges Judges To Lift Stay On CDC’s Airplane Mask Mandate
    Biden Administration Urges Judges To Lift Stay On CDC’s Airplane Mask Mandate

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    President Joe Biden’s administration in a court hearing on Jan. 17 urged judges on a federal appeals court to overturn a ruling from a lower court that struck down the administration’s airplane mask mandate.

    Travelers walk through Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on April 19, 2022. (Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

    The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had “good cause” to impose the mandate and bypass the notice- and comment period required by the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), Brian Springer, an attorney for the government, told judges of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit.

    At the time the mandate was imposed, in early 2021, “there were variants that had just been detected that showed signs of increased transmissibility, and people were starting to travel again,” Springer said. “In those circumstances, the CDC had good cause to issue this order, particularly when the CDC detailed the reasons why in this particular environment, namely in the transportation sector and in transportation settings, COVID had a specific tendency to spread among people who are traveling together because they’re standing together in lines and sitting together on conveyances.”

    One of the judges expressed skepticism with the line of thinking, accusing the CDC of issuing “boilerplate” language to impose the mandate without a notice and comment period. Under a ruling in a separate case, boilerplate statements that COVID-19 exists and that there’s a public emergency aren’t sufficient to satisfy the “good cause” exception to the APA. Springer disagreed, saying the CDC’s statement provided rationale that met the standard.

    U.S. District Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle, a Trump appointee, said in her 2022 ruling that the CDC violated the APA by only issuing a single conclusory sentence to support ducking the notice requirements.

    She noted that at the time the order was issued, around a year had passed since the beginning of the pandemic, and COVID-19 cases in America were on the decline.

    Brent Hardaway, arguing for Health Freedom Defense Fund, which brought the case, said that the mandate was “very strange” given that airplanes and many airports already had mandates in place, in addition to the decline in cases.

    Does the CDC Have Authority to Mandate Masks?

    Other portions of the hearing went over arguments as to whether the CDC has the authority to mandate masks.

    U.S. code gives the federal government the power to enforce regulations judged as “necessary to prevent the introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases from foreign countries into the States or possessions, or from one State or possession into any other State or possession.”

    The government, to enforce such measures, “may provide for such inspection, fumigation, disinfection, sanitation, pest extermination, destruction of animals or articles found to be so infected or contaminated as to be sources of dangerous infection to human beings, and other measures, as in his judgment may be necessary,” the statute says.

    In striking down the CDC’s moratorium on evictions, the Supreme Court found that the agency overstepped the authority outlined in the law. But the court also said the law empowered the CDC to impose measures that “directly relate to preventing the interstate spread of disease by identifying, isolating, and destroying the disease itself.”

    The decision “recognized that conventional measures to identify, isolate and destroy communicable diseases fall within the statute,” Springer said. “The CDC’s mask order was a very modest way to, and a traditional way to, prevent this interstate spread of disease that falls directly within the heartland of what the Supreme Court told us that this statute covers.”

    Springer asked the court to narrow the district court’s decision from applying to all travelers to just the five individuals that brought the case. If the court agrees, it would enable the mask mandate to take effect again for virtually all Americans inside airports, airplanes, and some other transportation settings.

    Mizelle has ruled that mask mandates don’t fall under sanitation and that the “other measures” were limited, based on a reading of the history of the law and court rulings.

    “The mask mandate is best understood not as sanitation, but as an exercise of the CDC’s power to conditionally release individuals to travel despite concerns that they may spread a communicable disease (and to detain or partially quarantine those who refuse). But the power to conditionally release and detain is ordinarily limited to individuals entering the United States from a foreign country,” Mizelle wrote, noting that a part of the law only allows for the detention of a person traveling between the states if that person is “reasonably believed to be infected” and is actually found “upon examination” to be infected.

    That means the CDC exceeded its authority in issuing the mandate, the judge said.

    Hardaway, in court on Tuesday, said that the law does not give the CDC the ability to impose mask mandates, though one of the judges questioned whether that was true.

    “It just seems strange to me that an agency like the Center for Disease Control doesn’t have the authority to require travelers to wear a mask when they travel as a way to prevent the spread of communicable disease in the context of a global pandemic,” the judge said. “If they don’t have that authority, what authority do they have?”

    Hardaway said the eviction ruling showed why it was not odd and urged the judges to look at the law, which has been used by the government to impose various measures.

    “Their reading of sanitation is basically any measure that may promote sanitation,” he said. “It’s basically going to have the same kind of sweeping implications of the rule that the Supreme Court rejected.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 22:55

  • Hunter Biden Lived In Classified Doc House While Raking In Millions Through Chinese Intelligence Ties
    Hunter Biden Lived In Classified Doc House While Raking In Millions Through Chinese Intelligence Ties

    National security concerns over Joe Biden’s classified document scandal just got worse, as two reports have emerged which place Hunter Biden at the Bidens’ Wilmington, Delaware residence while he was raking in millions of dollars from CCP-linked business dealings.

    First, Seamus Bruner  (researcher for legendary bombshell-dropper Peter Schweizer), reports via Breitbart News, that “While addicted to drugs, cavorting with prostitutes, and making deals with businessmen tied to the highest levels of Chinese intelligence, Hunter Biden lived in the house where Joe Biden stored classified documents.”

    While filling out a background check, Hunter made a crackhead error and listed his ‘rent’ as $49,910 – when in fact that’s the amount of the security deposit and 6 months of rent for prime office space at the prestigious House of Sweden in Washington DC. What’s most interesting, however, is that the dates Hunter listed as living at the Wilmington, DE residence – as claimed on other documents and financial statements – overlap with the period in which multiple Biden family members were taking money from foreign businessmen with connections at the highest levels of Chinese state intelligence services through energy company CEFC. As Bruner further notes, CNN described CEFC as a state-directed entity in 2018.

    CEFC, and at least four of its executives and associates – Ye Jianming, Patrick Ho, Gongwen Dong and Jiaqi Bao, have been linked to the CCP and its military intelligence apparatus. In one case, Hunter described Patrick Ho as “the fucking spy chief of China.”

    CEFC Chairman Ye Jianming (Photo: CEFC)

    More via Breitbart,

    By early 2017, Hunter was directly corresponding with CEFC personnel and flew to Miami in February of that year to meet with CEFC Chairman Ye Jianming. During this trip, Ye Jianming gave Hunter a 3.16 carat diamond valued at approximately $80,000..

    When Hunter’s ex-wife discovered that he had obtained something of such immense value, she had her divorce attorney send an “Urgent” email seeking to determine the whereabouts of the diamond and secure the asset before Hunter could “dissipate” it. Hunter’s attorney offered a shady denial:

    “There is no diamond in Hunter’s possession. I don’t know where Kathleen is getting access to this information, but on this score, what your email purports below is inaccurate.”

    Metadata gleaned from photos of the diamond on the abandoned laptop indicate that Hunter lied about not having the diamond and he in fact had the diamond with him in Wilmington. The current location of the 3.16 carat diamond remains unknown

    After the fateful February 2017 meeting with Ye, and around the time Hunter claimed to have moved into the Wilmington house where classified documents were found, the Bidens’ business with CEFC exploded.

    Nine days after Miami meeting, Hunter received two separate wire transfers of $3 million which the Department of Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network flagged as suspicious.

    We encourage you to read the rest of the Breitbart report here, as it goes into extensive detail.

    Second, the Washington Free Beacon reports that photos from Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop place him at the Wilmington House in July, 2017. Of note, the classified documents were reportedly brought to the house in January of that year.

    The photos ‘are the most concrete evidence to date’ that Hunter – who was actively negotiating a deal with a CCP-linked Chinese energy company – had access to areas of his father’s home where classified documents were stored.

    A Washington Free Beacon review of the laptop found four 2017 photographs of Hunter Biden, clad in a white collared shirt and a camouflage baseball cap, behind the wheel of his father’s 1967 Corvette Stingray. GPS metadata embedded in the photos indicate they were taken within a minute of each other at 6:49 p.m. on July 30 of that year, just outside the president’s Wilmington, Del., residence. The photos show Hunter Biden posing in the vehicle beside two young girls. One appears to be his then-12-year-old niece, Natalie Biden. The other could not be identified.

    Former Secret Service agent and certified cyber forensics expert, Konstantinos Gus Dimitrelos, analyzed the photos and confirmed their authenticity.

    “If requested, I will testify the photographs are genuine and were taken on July 30, 2017,” he told the Free Beacon.

    And as the Beacon further reports – corroborating Breitbart‘s reporting, “At the time the photos were taken, Hunter Biden was negotiating a lucrative business deal with the now-defunct Chinese energy conglomerate CEFC, which was closely tied to the Chinese government. Biden’s former business partner Tony Bobulinski claimed to have met with Joe Biden in person in early May 2017—less than three months before Hunter Biden was pictured taking the wheel of his father’s prized vehicle—to discuss the Biden family’s Chinese business dealings.”

    In total, CEFC paid Hunter Biden $6 million in legal and consulting fees in 2017 and 2018.

    And of course, the same media which suggested the Trumps were Russian operatives based on a hoax – are virtually silent at actual risks to national security posed by the Biden family.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 22:35

  • The Fed's Jay Powell Is Trying To Have It Both Ways On Climate Change
    The Fed’s Jay Powell Is Trying To Have It Both Ways On Climate Change

    Authored by Rupert Darwall via RealClear Wire,

    Fed-speak, Alan Greenspan once explained, was about practicing the art of constructive ambiguity. Testifying to Congress as Fed chairman, Greenspan would resolve a sentence in a deliberately obscure way that made it incomprehensible, “but nobody was quite sure I wasn’t saying something profound when I wasn’t.” 

    Speaking on Tuesday at a symposium on central bank independence in Sweden, Greenspan’s latest successor avoided ambiguity as he spoke about the Fed’s need to stick to its assigned policy goals of maximizing employment and price stability and not getting diverted to pursuing other objectives. “In a well-functioning democracy, important public policy decisions should be made, in almost all cases, by the elected branches of government,” Chair Jerome Powell declared. “It is essential that we stick to our statutory goals and authorities, and that we resist the temptation to broaden our scope to address other important social issues of the day.”

    If that wasn’t clear enough, the current Fed chair noted that climate policies could have significant effects on companies, industries, regions, and nations: “Decisions about policies to directly address climate change should be made by the elected branches of government and thus reflect the public’s will as expressed through elections.” Without explicit congressional authorization, it would not be appropriate for the Fed to use monetary policy or its supervisory tools to promote a greener economy, Powell suggested. “We are not, and will not be a ‘climate policymaker.’”

    But before supporters of limited government, separation of powers, and rolling back the administrative state stand up to applaud, they should remember that Powell has an indirect climate-policy tool: as part of its supervisory responsibilities, the Fed will require banks to understand and manage the financial risks of climate change. Yet at the same time, Powell would have us believe that the Fed’s supervisory decisions are “not influenced by political considerations.”

    Climate “stress tests” are one of the principal tools used by the European Central Bank in furtherance of what its president Christine Lagarde openly proclaims as part of its mandate. “Our planet is burning and we central bankers could look on our mandate and pretend that it is for others to act and that we should simply be followers. I don’t think so,” Lagarde said at a June 2021 Green Swan conference of central bankers and regulators. 

    For its climate stress tests, the Bank of England uses the most extreme climate scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It then takes this projection about climate at the end of this century and telescopes eighty years of extreme climate change into three decades. The result is a physical impossibility. That a central bank believes it necessary to engage in such behavior demonstrates two things: that climate change does notrepresent a genuine threat to financial stability—if it did, the Bank would have used a plausible climate scenario—and that climate stress tests are indeed a tool of climate policy. Unlike the Fed, the Bank of England does have an explicit climate policy mandate. When he was Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak expanded the Bank’s remit to support the government’s goal of achieving “balanced growth that is also environmentally sustainable and consistent with the transition to a net zero economy.” 

    The Fed’s lack of a similar climate mandate proved no obstacle to Powell, however, when he spoke at the same Green Swan conference as Lagarde. The conference had been convened by the Network for the Greening of the Financial System (NGFS) to develop proposals for a more sustainable economy, financial sector, and society. “There’s a lot to like about climate stress tests,” Powell told the meeting. Not much constructive ambiguity there.

    The NGFS is a club of central banks and financial regulators formed by the Banque de France in December 2017 on the second anniversary of the Paris climate agreement. Its aim is to strengthen “the global response required to meet the goals of the Paris agreement and to enhance the role of the financial system.” It also seeks “to manage risks and to mobilize capital for green and low-carbon investments in the broader context of environmentally sustainable development.” These objectives have no place in the Fed’s formal mandate.

    Powell’s notion of an apolitical Fed tightly hewing to its congressional mandate is belied by the central bank’s decisionto join the NGFS. Even more devastating to Powell’s claim of the Fed eschewing political considerations is the timing of that move: December 15, 2020, six weeks after Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump. The Fed cannot have it both ways. It cannot truthfully claim that its supervisory decisions are untainted by political considerations and remain a member of the NGFS. It was a mistake for the Fed to have joined the NGFS in the first place. If Powell wants to be believed, the Fed should quit the club.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 22:15

  • Pro Hockey Player Takes Rare Stand Against Woke NHL
    Pro Hockey Player Takes Rare Stand Against Woke NHL

    Over the past year or more, hockey fans have been scratching their heads as the National Hockey League continues down its path of seeking to become the wokest of the woke in professional sports.

    After all, one wonders what any of this actually has do with hockey…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Ivan Provorov has stirred controversy and received severe backlash among LGBTQIA++ activists for apparently having enough, and taking a stance against the climate of fear and intimidation meant to impose conformity.

    He refused to participate in the team’s annual “Pride night” celebration on Tuesday before playing the Anaheim Ducks.

    “Provorov didn’t participate in pregame warmups when the team wore Pride-themed jerseys and used sticks wrapped in rainbow Pride tape,” Fox News reports. The longtime professional player cited “his Russian Orthodox religion as the reason why he didn’t participate.”

    Ivan Provorov, Getty composite

    “I respect everybody and I respect everybody’s choices,” he said when asked about his stance by reporters after the game. “My choice is to stay true to myself and my religion. That’s all I’m going to say.”

    Now under fire for allowing Provorov to play in the game that night, Flyers coach John Tortorella explained he thought it would be unfair to bench him merely for his beliefs. “I think the organization has sent out a release regarding the beliefs that we have,” Tortorella said.

    “It was really a great night. With Provy, he is being true to himself and to his religion. This has to do with his beliefs and his religion. That is one thing I respect about Provy, he is always true to himself, so that’s where we’re at with that.” As expected, the activists pounced…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Olympic gold medalist Erin Ambrose said Provorov shouldn’t be allowed to “OPENLY” dissent and still be able to play. This was followed by an avalanche of online and media criticism directed at Provorov and the Flyers decision-making generally. 

    The incident is yet more confirmation that in the land of the woke, nothing is ever enough, and total conformity and obedience is expected. A person cannot so much as “stay true to oneself” or have “choice” in the matter. Here’s the NHL lecturing the public on what they must believe in terms of language, biology, and “reality”:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    * * *

    And here’s Provorov addressing the controversy after the game, with this epic quote underscoring the sad state of woke professional sports:

    “If you have any hockey questions I would answer those…”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 21:55

  • Sulzberger: Disinformation Is The "Most Existential Problem" Facing The Planet Today
    Sulzberger: Disinformation Is The “Most Existential Problem” Facing The Planet Today

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    There has been much coverage over the resurfacing of former CNN host Brian Stelter as the host for a panel at the World Economic Forum on alleged disinformation and “hate speech.” Stelter previously called for censorship under a “harm reduction model” and led a panel at a conference where Democrats discussed how to shape the news.

    He was confronted over his own dissemination for false stories targeting Republicans on CNN.

    Yet, I was most struck by a statement from New York Times publisher A.G. Sulzberger who described “disinformation” as the “most existential” problem the world is facing today. Sulzberger insisted that disinformation is the reason why there is a loss of “trust” today. He ignores his own history in eroding that trust in the media through flagrantly biased decisions at the New York Times.

    Former  NYT editor Jill Abramson also slammed the participation of Sulzberger and the New York Times at Davos, denouncing it as a “corrupt circle-jerk” between media and business. She said that “the coverage was a sweetener to flatter the CEOs by seeing their names in the NYT.”

    The panel was titled, “Clear & Present Danger of Disinformation” included panelists: New York Times publisher A.G. Sulzberger, Vice-President of the European Commission Vera Jourová, CEO of Internews Jeanne Bourgault, and Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass.

    The entire conference was notable in its omission of free speech advocates while inviting long advocates for censorship like Stelter.

    Stelter asked his panel, “How does this discussion of disinformation relate to everything else happening today in Davos?”

    Sulzberger responded:

    “Well, first, thanks for having me is as part of this conversation. As you can imagine, this is something I really care deeply about. So, I think if you look at this question of disinformation, I think it maps basically to every other major challenge that we are grappling with as a society, and particularly the most existential among them. So, disinformation and in the broader set of misinformation, conspiracy, propaganda, clickbait, you know, the broader mix of bad information that’s corrupting information ecosystem, what it attacks is trust.

    And once you see, trust decline, what you then see is a society start to fracture, and so you see people fracture along tribal lines and, you know, that immediately undermines pluralism.

    And the undermining of pluralism is probably the most dangerous thing that can happen to a democracy. So I really — I think if if you’re spending this week thinking about the health of democracies and democratic erosion, I think it’s really import to work your way back up to where this starts.”

    It was a telling statement. Sulzberger suggested that allowing some opposing views undermines “trust.” Indeed, allowing opposing views on Covid or election or global warming does erode trust in the media and the government. Society would be so less “fractured” if information is controlled and consistent.

    There is a perfectly Orwellian element to Sulzberger’s words.

    Democracy is being threatened because there is too much “disinformation,” “misinformation,” “bad information,” and other harmful views being expressed. 

    After all, without such views, there was be less “fracture” and most “trust.”

    That was precisely the point of the earlier conference.

    What is striking about the comment, however, was the date. This is after many of those censored and blacklisted in the media and social media have been vindicated in the questions over masks or vaccines.

    Those who questioned the efficacy of masks were suspended or banned but now have been seemingly vindicated. Among the suspended were the doctors who co-authored of the Great Barrington Declaration, which advocated for a more focused Covid response that targeted the most vulnerable population rather than widespread lockdowns and mandates. Many are now questioning the efficacy and cost of the massive lockdown as well as the real value of masks or the rejection of natural immunities as an alternative to vaccination.  Yet, these experts and others were attacked for such views just a year ago. Some found themselves censored on social media for challenging claims of Dr. Fauci and others.

    Likewise, the New York Times was one of those newspapers suppressing stories like the Hunter Biden laptop. It only admitted that the laptop was authentic roughly two years after the election.

    Some of us have been raising concerns the emergence of a “shadow state” where corporations carry out censorship the Constitution bars the government from doing.

    What’s striking is leading Democrats have been open about precisely this type of corporate manipulation of political speech on social media. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) called upon these companies to use enlightened algorithms to protect users from their own bad reading choices.

    Even President Joe Biden called for such regulation of speech and discussions by wise editors. Without such censorship and manipulation, Biden asked, “How do people know the truth?”

    The last year has shown how media censorship resisted scientific debate and buried legitimate stories. Yet, Sulzberger is still unrepentant and views disinformation rather than censorship as the problem…Indeed the world’s most existential problem.

    Sulzberger’s position is nothing if not consistent. He was involved in one of the lowest moments in modern media when the newspaper turned not only on a U.S. senator but its own editor to yield to the mob.

    Former New York Times editorial page editor James Bennet recently said Sulzberger “set me on fire and threw me in the garbage” in the Cotton column controversy.

    The treatment of the Cotton column shocked many of us. It was one of the lowest points in the history of modern American journalism. During the week of June 6, 2020, the Times forced out Bennet and apologized for publishing Cotton’s column calling for the use of the troops to restore order in Washington after days of rioting around the White House.

    While Congress would “call in the troops” six months later to quell the rioting at the Capitol on January 6th, New York Times reporters and columnists denounced the column as historically inaccurate and politically inciteful. The column was in fact historically accurate, even if you disagreed with the underlying proposal (as I did).

    Reporters insisted that Cotton was endangering them by suggesting the use of troops and insisted that the newspaper should not feature people who advocate political violence. Writers Taylor Lorenz, Caity Weaver, Sheera Frankel, Jacey Fortin, and others also said that such columns put black reporters in danger and condemned publishing Cotton’s viewpoint.

    Critics never explained what was historically false (or outside the range of permissible interpretation) in the column.

    In a breathtaking surrender, the newspaper apologized and not only promised an investigation into how such an opposing view could find itself on its pages but promised to reduce the number of editorials in the future:

    “We’ve examined the piece and the process leading up to its publication. This review made clear that a rushed editorial process led to the publication of an Op-Ed that did not meet our standards. As a result, we’re planning to examine both short term and long term changes, to include expanding our fact-checking operation and reduction the number of op-eds we publish.”

    Bennet reportedly made an apology to the staff.  That however was not enough. He was later compelled to resign for publishing a column that advocates an option used previously in history with rioting.

    Bennet recently told the new media outlet Semafor that Sulzberger

    “blew the opportunity to make clear that the New York Times doesn’t exist just to tell progressives how progressives should view reality. That was a huge mistake and a missed opportunity for him to show real strength. He still could have fired me…I actually knew what it meant to have a target on your back when you’re reporting for the New York Times.

    None of that mattered, and none of it mattered to AG. When push came to shove at the end, he set me on fire and threw me in the garbage and used my reverence for the institution against me,. This is why I was so bewildered for so long after I had what felt like all my colleagues treating me like an incompetent fascist.”

    These controversies are the reason why trust in the media is at an all-time low. However, figures like Sulzberger still blame too much free speech as opposed to his own role in biased coverage that has undermined that trust.

    That is why, in 2023, it is so glaring to see Sulzberger is being interviewed by Stelter on how disinformation is the greatest existential threat to the planet. Not nuclear proliferation, over-population, war, famine. It is the danger of allowing too much free speech that undermines “trust.”

    The key however is that there was no “fracturing” at the World Economic Forum. It was the same figures voicing the same criticism of free speech as the scourge of our time. The problem is the vast global unwashed who fail to put their trust in the right people and sources. Fortunately, all the right people are gathered at Davos to show the way.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 21:35

  • Visualizing The World's Top 25 Fleets Of Combat Tanks
    Visualizing The World’s Top 25 Fleets Of Combat Tanks

    The tank, an armored all-terrain fighting vehicle, revolutionized the way we fight when introduced during the First World War. Since then, despite some commentators predicting the end of the tank era, they remain a cornerstone of 21st century armies.

    Global Firepower has released their ranking of combat tank fleet sizes for 2023, which Visual Capitalist’s Chris Dickert has visualized in this infographic.

    The ranking includes main battle tanks, like the U.S. M1A2 Abrams or the German Leopard 2, but also more lightly-armed medium and light tanks, like Thailand’s Stingray. The numbers do not include armored personnel carriers or infantry fighting vehicles.

    Russia

    Numbering 12,556 tanks, the Russian Federation has the largest fleet in their arsenal by far, from the workhorse T-72 series to the ultra-advanced T-14 Armata. This is more than the combined total of the number two and three spots, North Korea (6,645) and the U.S. (5,500).

    But the headline number misses nuances in the composition of the Russian tank fleet.

    Of Russia’s nearly 13,000 active combat tanks, only a fraction are main battle tanks. A 2021 Russian source estimated that their operational main battle fleet was closer to 2,600 tanks, made up of T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s, with another 400 T-72 variants used as range tanks.

    On top of that, only one-quarter of those are considered modern tanks—T-72B3/B3M, T-80-BVM, and T-90A/M—that is, fitted with up-to-date fire control systems and sighting. That’s why, on top of poor morale, inadequate logistics, and inflexible tactics, Russia has struggled to perform on the Ukrainian battlefield despite having more than six times the number of tanks (12,556 vs. 1,890).

    According to a Pentagon official speaking in early November 2022, Russia has lost half of their tanks since their “special military operation” began on February 24, 2022. The conflict has also injured or killed thousands of civilians, displaced millions, and upended the post-Cold War security architecture.

    North Korea

    The world’s second-largest tank fleet belongs to North Korea, with a combat fleet of 6,645 tanks.

    The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has maintained armored capabilities since the Korean War (1950-1953) when their first armored unit, the 105th Armored Brigade, participated in the invasion of South Korea armed with 120 Soviet-made T-34/85 tanks.

    After the war, the North Korean army rearmed with Soviet T-34/85s, and later with T-55s and Chinese-variant Type 59 tanks. Despite now being decades-old, these are likely still in service, alongside indigenous designs such as the Chonma-ho “Flying Horse” and the Pokpung-ho “Storm.”

    Ultimately, these tank forces are considered to be no match for modern main battle tanks despite their numbers. One military blogger called them “weak and pathetic”—especially when compared to South Korea’s fourth-generation K2 Black Panther, considered one of the most advanced tanks in the world.

    China

    China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently accelerated fleet modernization plans at the 20th Party Congress, in anticipation of the army’s centenary in 2027, but they still have a ways to go.

    Their fourth-place 4,950 combat tank fleet contains a mix of modern and obsolete tanks.

    China’s most modern main battle tank, the third-generation Type 99, is a domestic design. Armed with a 125mm diameter main gun—slightly larger than the NATO standard 120mm—and 1,500hp diesel engine, it is tough and maneuverable. An upgraded variant, the Type 99A, debuted in the mid-2000s.

    There is some speculation that the Type 99/99A could rival the U.S. M1 Abrams. However, it still falls short of fourth-generation designs, such as Russia’s T-14 Armata, South Korea’s K2 Black Panther, or Japan’s Type 10.

    But thanks to a whopping $293 billion military budget, and significant industrial espionage, China’s defense industry is capable of producing military equipment at or near world-class standards, including tanks. The country even began testing unmanned tanks, including the Type 59 in 2018 and lightweight Type 15 in 2019.

    Ukraine

    Despite coming in at #13 with 1,890 tanks and initial predictions of a quick victory for Russian invaders, Ukrainian forces have successfully halted and then turned back their numerically superior foes.

    Originally armed with upgraded Soviet-era T-64s, as well as donations of T-72s from Poland and Czechia, Ukraine’s tank forces have swelled thanks to captured military equipment left behind by fleeing Russian soldiers.

    Oryx, a Dutch defense analysis website that has been tracking battlefield progress in Ukraine using open-source intelligence, estimates that 533 tanks, including several top-of-the-line T-90s, have been captured as of early 2023. According to a U.S. defense official, Ukraine may now have “more tanks in the battlefield than the Russians do.”

    Arsenal of Democracy?

    Looking ahead, Ukraine is asking for advanced Western main battle tanks, as it seeks to liberate the rest of its territory from Russia, including the Donbas and Crimea. NATO nations had been reluctant to take that step, as they were wary of further antagonizing Russia, but resistance seems to be diminishing.

    On January 4, 2023, France agreed to deliver AMX-10 RC light tanks to Ukraine, the first Western country to do so. On January 6, the U.S. and Germany each agreed to deliver armored vehicles of their own, the Bradley and Marder, respectively.

    And as another possible sign that sentiment has shifted, the UK has also said that it plans to donate a small number of Challenger 2 main battle tanks, while Poland has signaled their intention to donate Leopard 2 tanks (though the latter will need Germany’s permission to export).

    As the spring campaign season approaches, we will see how these new weapons affect the balance of tank fleets both on and off the battlefield.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 21:15

  • The Rise Of The Single Woke (And Young, Democratic) Female
    The Rise Of The Single Woke (And Young, Democratic) Female

    Authored by Joel Kotkin and Samuel J. Abrams via RealClear Wire,

    Soccer Moms are giving way to Single Woke Females – the new “SWFs” – as one of the most potent voting blocs in American politics.  

    Unmarried women without children have been moving toward the Democratic Party for several years, but the 2022 midterms may have been their electoral coming-out party as they proved the chief break on the predicted Republican wave. While married men and women as well as unmarried men broke for the GOP, CNN exit polls found that 68% of unmarried women voted for Democrats. 

    The Supreme Court’s August decision overturning Roe v. Wade was certainly a special factor in the midterms, but longer-term trends show that single, childless women are joining African Americans as the Democrats’ most reliable supporters.   

    Their power is growing thanks to the demographic winds. The number of never married women has grown from about 20% in 1950 to over 30% in 2022, while the percentage of married women has declined from almost 70% in 1950 to under 50% today. Overall, the percentage of married households with children has declined from 37% in 1976 to 21% today.  

    The Single Wave 

    A new Institute for Family Studies analysis  of 2020 Census data found that one in six women do not have children by the time they reach the end of their childbearing years, up from one in ten in 1990. Single adult women now total some 42 million, comparable to the key African American voting bloc (46 million), while vastly larger than key groups like labor union members (14 million) or college students (20 million).  

    The Pew Research Center notes that since 1960, single-person households in the United States have grown from 13% to 27% (2019). Many, particularly women, are not all that keen on finding a partner. Pew recently found that “men are far more likely than women to be on the dating market: 61% of single men say they are currently looking for a relationship or dates, compared with 38% of single women.”  

    There’s clearly far less stigma attached to being single and unpartnered. Single women today have many impressive role models of unattached, childless women who have succeeded on their own – like Taylor Swift and much of the U.S. women’s soccer team. This phenomenon is not confined to the United States. Marriage and birthrates have fallen in much of the world, including Europe and Japan. Writing in Britain’s Guardian newspaper, columnist Emma John observed that, “Singleness is no longer to be sneered at. Never marrying or taking a long-term partner is increasingly seen as a valid choice.”  

    Rise of Identity Politics 

    The rise of SWFs – a twist on the personal ad abbreviation for single white female – is one of the great untold stories of American politics. Distinct from divorced women or widows, these largely Gen Z and Millennial voters share a sense of collective identity and progressive ideology that sets them apart from older women. More likely to live in urban centers and to support progressive policies, they are a driving force in the Democratic party’s and the nation’s shift to the left. One paradox, however: Democrats depend ever more on women defined in the strict biological sense while much of the party’s progressive wing embraces the blurred and flexible gender boundaries of its identity politics.  

    Attitudes are what most distinguish single women from other voters. An American Enterprise Institute survey shows that married men and women are far more likely than unmarried females to think women are well-treated or equally treated. As they grow in numbers, these discontented younger single women are developing something of a group consciousness. Nearly two-thirds of women under 30, for example, see what happens to other women as critical to their own lives; among women over 50, this mindset shrinks to less than half.  

    This perception of linked fate stands in contrast to survey results regarding single men, who report that they are increasingly disconnected from each other while women bond more closely. This is not a temporary phenomenon, and it is much bigger than the bohemian movements of the past. There is even a sense in which women are redefining families, and themselves, by choosing to neither get married nor have offspring. And social observers such as Bella DePaulo, a University of California, Santa Barbara professor and singles advocate, are all in favor. As she told Nautilus magazine:  

    “[It’s] a tremendously positive thing! Once upon a time, just about everyone in the United States thought that they needed to squeeze themselves into the heterosexual nuclear family box, even if they weren’t heterosexual or weren’t interested in getting married or had no interest in raising kids. Now, people can create the lives and the families that allow them to live their best, most authentic, and most meaningful lives. They can choose to put friends at the center of their lives. Or they can assemble their very own combination of friends and family to be the social convoys that sail beside them as they navigate their lives. They can have kids in their lives without having children of their own.” 

    The key driver of these attitudes may be universities, where feminist ideology often holds powerful sway. Women now predominate on college campuses. In the late 1960s they were about 39% of college graduates; now they are about 59%.  The percentage of full-time female professors has risen dramatically; at the full professor level the percentage has grown by roughly one-third.  

    Women now earn more than half of advanced degrees, not only in education but health and medical sciences, and are making great strides in engineering and law. With this growth, a feminist agenda has become increasingly de rigueur in colleges. According to theNational Center for Education Statistics, the number of women’s and gender studies degrees in the United States has increased by more than 300% since 1990, and in 2015, there were more than 2,000 degrees conferred. There are widespread movements to establish women’s centers almost everywhere, even as men are abandoning college and university life in record numbers, and those who remain are hit with messaging about behavior and status from diversity, equity, and inclusion offices along with various student life offices that regularly call them toxic, aggressive, and born misogynists.  

    More recently, anti-family attitudes have become more pronounced. “Queer studies” often advocate replacing the “nuclear family” with some form of collectivized childrearing. Progressive groups like Black Lives Matter made their opposition to the nuclear family a part of their basic original platform, even though evidence shows family breakdown has hurt African American boys most of all.  

    The Economics of Singleness 

    While both married and unmarried women have made impressive gains in the workplace, family status appears to be driving a big cleavage in politics among women. Research shows that having children tends to make one more conservative – critically, divorce does not change this calculus decisively, although it moderates leftism. The AEI 2022 data shows that divorced women – of all age cohorts – tend to be more conservative than liberal. In aggregate, 23% of divorced women are liberal while 31% are conservative – the plurality (38%) are somewhere in the moderate middle. The fault lines, however, run deeper and appear to be generational. The data show that 40% of Millennial women – those born between 1981-1996 – identify as liberal and 20% identify as conservative. For single women of the baby boom generation (born between 1946-1963) the number of liberals drops to 25% and the number of conservative women increases to almost 30%.  

    We are witnessing, as sociologist Daniel Bell noted a half century ago in “The Coming of the Post-Industrial Society,” a new type of individualism, unmoored from religion and family, something fundamentally transforming the foundations of middle-class culture. This echoes what the popular futurist Alvin Toffler in 1970 described as a growing immersion in work at the expense of family life. He envisioned a revolution in marriage that would result in a “streamlined family,” and, if children are in the picture, relying on professional child-raisers. The ideal of long-term marriage would give way, he expected, to more transient relationships and numerous partners at different stages of life.  

    There is a clear economic divergence between married and unmarried women, if for no other reason than that two incomes provide more resources and children present different demands. There are plenty of renting couples and home-owning singles, but married people account for 77% of all homeowners, according to the Center for Politics. Married women tend also to do far better professionally and economically, and their rate of marriage has remained constant while those without spouses have declined by 15% over the past four decades, notes the Brookings Institution. Single-parent households, they find, do far worse. 

    This economic reality impacts political choices. Not part of an economic familial unit, they tend to look to government for help, whether for rent subsidies or direct transfers. The pitch of Democratic presidents as reflected in Barack Obama’s “Life of Julia” and Joe Biden’s “Life of Linda” – narratives that advertised the government’s cradle-to-grave assistance for women – is geared toward women who never marry, with the occasional child-raising addressed not by family resources but government transfers.  

    Critically, unmarried women also tend to be employed heavily in “helping professions” like medical care and teaching, an expanding field even as many traditional male jobs, particularly in manufacturing, construction, and transportation, have disappeared. Whereas high taxes and regulation pose problems in the general economy, women predominate in fields that actually benefit from more government spending. This now includes the once GOP-leaning medical profession, nurses as well as doctors who now lean Democratic. In contrast, heavily male professions like engineers, masons, and police officers tend toward the GOP.  

    These differences are also showing up in backlashes against leftwing education policy, epitomized by such programs as Drag Queen Story Hour for K-12 students. Parents have been at the forefront of movements to replace progressive school board members from Virginia to California. 

    Geography Is Destiny 

    The divisions between married and unmarried women are reenforced and amplified by the geographic divisions in the country – what some call “the big sort”– as Americans increasingly settle into distinct communities of likeminded individuals. Urban centers, for example, are particularly friendly to singles. In virtually all high-income societies, high density today almost always translates into low fertility rates, led by San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Boston. In urban cores like Manhattan, single households constituted nearly 50% of households, according to American Community Survey 2019 data. And with many businesses and cultural opportunities moving away from cities and diffusing and becoming more diverse and family friendly with varied amenities, the polarization between cities and their narrowly left residents and the rest of the nation may increase.  

    According to the recent AEI data, even married women in the Northeast are conservative. This gap, unsurprisingly, widens in the South and Midwest. But the major divides are in terms of type of community. Married women who live in urban settings are evenly split between conservative and liberal, but among single women, just 18% are conservative with 44% liberal (the rest identify as moderate or refused to say). In the suburbs, the key political battleground, 35% of married women are conservative and 22% liberal. For unmarried women, 23% are conservative and 34% are liberal. In rural areas, 42% of married women are conservative compared to 14% liberal while single women divide evenly.  

    Unlike the wave of immigrants or rural migrants who flooded the American metropolises of the early 20th century, urbanites today generally avoid raising large families in cramped and exceedingly expensive spaces. According to analysis by demographer Wendell Cox, households in suburbs and exurbs are roughly four times more likely to have children in their household than residents of the urban core. 

    The lowest birthrates are found in ultra-blue cities and states, magnets largely for singles and the childless. Six years ago the New York Times ran a story headlined “San Francisco Asks: Where Have All the Children Gone?” and stories abound about the Golden Gate City having the fewest children of all major American cities. Many other major cities lost families with children during the pandemic. Between 2020 and 2021, Manhattan saw a whopping 9.5% decline in the number of children under 5 – and many families are not returning. 

    Some of this reflects policies associated with driving housing prices up more than elsewhere. Like other blue states, California has adopted policies that discourage single family housing favored by married couples with children in favor of dense, usually small urban apartments. Given the political orientation of single women, urban areas can be expected to go further left, while the suburbs, and particularly the exurbs, with their concentrations of married families, will likely shift towards the center and right.  

    The Great Demographic Race 

    In the near future, American politics, both national and local, may turn on the degree to which people remain single, and also whether they decide to have children. Right now, the short run demography favors the Democrats. People are getting married at the lowest rate in American history and the birth rate remains depressed. The longer people stay single, and perhaps never marry, the better things will be for the Democrats. 

    The wild card may be age – specifically whether historic patterns hold and women, like men, tend to become conservative as they get older. This is hard to gauge as the evolution has usually taken in place of the context of marriage and motherhood. Unmarried women, in particular, may hold onto their youthful ideology far longer than those whose lives are transformed by marriage and parenting. 

    In many places, particularly on the coasts, single women have become a politically rising force. Twelve women were elected governor in 2022, a record. Maura Healey’s election as the nation’s first openly lesbian chief executive shows that in states like Massachusetts, once a Catholic conservative bastion culturally, there is enough support for single women in politics to overcome traditional reluctance to elect childless and non-heterosexual candidates. “It’s thrilling to see Maura break down historical obstacles to both women and LGBTQ candidates to lead Massachusetts,” says Janson Wu, executive director of the Boston-based GLBTQ Legal Advocates & Defenders. “It really shows the progress we’ve made as a society, in understanding that what counts is really the quality of the leader and not who they are.” 

    Future Policy Conflicts 

    Public policy may have a strong influence on this dynamic. The single, the unattached, and the unmarried are already demanding state provisions to guarantee “affordable” urban housing, more money for transit, and steps toward a guaranteed income for individuals – all of which will, in turn, provide incentives to remain unattached. In contrast, the demands of family-oriented voters may be more focused on economic growth, safety, improving basic education, and ways to save money for their offspring.  

    If the policy preferences of singles become more significant, the United States may have to brace for the kind of long-term demographic decline already evident in Japan and parts of Europe. Some suggest that one possible solution, attractive to some on the left, would be to adopt the “Nordic way” which encourages reproduction (if not marriage) by transferring much of the burden of child-raising from families to the state. Other countries have also adopted pro-birth policies – like free or low-cost childcare, or even cash payments. These schemes have been applied in places as dissimilar as Poland and South Korea, as well as Quebec. But according to United Nations data, all of them, including the Scandinavian states, still suffer well below replacement rate fertility rates. 

    Some women in particular embrace singleness not just as a lifestyle, but a chance to redefine the role of women in society. Author Rebecca Traister, herself married with children, has followed this movement, calling it a “a radical upheaval, a national reckoning with massive social and political implications …  a wholesale revision of what female life might entail.” 

    “We are living through the invention of independent female adulthood as a norm, not an aberration,” she adds, “and the creation of an entirely new population: adult women who are no longer economically, socially, sexually, or reproductively dependent on or defined by the men they marry.” 

    The likely best way to overcome the demographic decline may lie instead in boosting the economic prospects of the next generation. This includes steps that could allow for easier purchase of homes or lower cost apartments suitable for families. As Richard Florida, among others, has suggested: Efforts should be made to lower housing prices, which correlates to higher rates of fertility.  

    Reforms that encourage home-based businesses could spark greater fertility rates, as historian Alan Carlson suggested almost two decades ago. The rise of home-based businesses and work, now taking off, offers a unique opportunity for increased family formation. Indeed a recent study by the Federal Reserve of Kansas City suggests that the current rise in remote work could spark a family friendly housing boom, as people can live further away, and spend more time being parents. For that to occur, however, it would require that such housing can be constructed, which would require loosening of regulations that seek to restrain construction both in cities and suburban areas.  

    Ultimately the question remains what kind of society Americans want to have. Historically, here in the U.S. and elsewhere, the family perspective has generally been prevalent and tied intimately to the sense of a common polity. But as the country changes and becomes ever more single and female-influenced, the historical pattern is likely to be challenged and significantly modified.  

    Joel Kotkin is Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and executive director of the Urban Reform Institute. 
    Samuel J. Abrams is a professor of politics at Sarah Lawrence College and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 20:55

  • Ardern Out: Tearful New Zealand Prime Minister Unexpectedly Announced Resignation
    Ardern Out: Tearful New Zealand Prime Minister Unexpectedly Announced Resignation

    New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, one of the best known and longest faces of the globalist menace that steamrolled all personal rights and liberties during the period of world history known as “covid fascism” while arresting countless non conformists just so she could impose universal lockdowns and to enable the CEOs of Pfizer and Moderna to become stinking rich, said she would step down by Feb. 7 after more than five years as leader because she “lacks the energy” to do the job ahead of an election later this year.

    “I believe that leading a country is the most privileged job anyone could ever have, but also one of the more challenging,” a tearful Ardern said. “You cannot and should not do it unless you have a full tank plus a bit in reserve for those unexpected challenges.”

    “I know what this job takes, and I know that I no longer have enough in the tank to do it justice,” the now former prime minister said. “But I absolutely believe and know there are others around me who do.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    She added: “This has been the most fulfilling five and a half years of my life. I am leaving because with such a privileged job comes a big responsibility.”

    Opinion polls have shown Ardern’s center-left Labour Party trailing the opposition National party, although her own standing with voters was higher than other political leaders. Results of one survey released last month by 1 News Kantar showed support for Labour had fallen to 33%, from 41% around a year earlier. National topped that poll with 38%.

    Translation: some huge scandal is about to emerge.

    She said she is proud of what she has accomplished during her time as leader, citing progress on responding to climate change, addressing child poverty, easing access to education, improving worker conditions and dealing with issues of national identity

    Labour lawmakers will elect a new leader of the party — and the country — in three days’ time, Ardern said.

    Ardern said she had informed party members of her decision earlier in the day. She said would remain a member of Parliament for her electorate in the city of Auckland until April, in order to avoid the need for a by-election.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 20:35

  • Classified Docs Were At Biden House While Hunter Took Millions For "Representing F**king Spy Chief Of China"
    Classified Docs Were At Biden House While Hunter Took Millions For “Representing F**king Spy Chief Of China”

    Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Public,

    For the last week and a half, defenders of President Joe Biden have said that the way he allegedly mishandled classified documents was not as dangerous, illegal, or inappropriate as the way former President Donald Trump allegedly mishandled classified documents.

    But we now know that Hunter Biden was taking millions of dollars from businessmen tied to Chinese military intelligence while living at the home of his father, President Joe Biden, where classified documents, including ones relating to foreign nations, were recently found.

    We additionally know that Hunter Biden was in the grip of a debilitating addiction to cocaine and alcohol and that he experienced frequent blackouts and loss of memory.

    There is no evidence that Hunter Biden, willingly or unwillingly, sober or intoxicated, took classified documents from his father’s residence in Delaware and gave them to his client, a Chinese businessman named Patrick Ho.

    “There’s no evidence that Hunter Biden accessed the documents, but — God-forbid — the opportunity existed for him to do so,” said investigative journalist Peter Schweitzer, who has tracked the Biden family’s business ties to the Chinese government, including military intelligence, over the last five years.

    During the time that Hunter lived in his father’s residence, between 2017 and 2018, Hunter and the entities he and his uncle, James Biden, President Biden’s brother, controlled received at least $4.8 million from a Chinese energy conglomerate called CEFC, which is tied to the Chinese military. Hunter Biden received an additional $1 million from Patrick Ho, a CEFC official.

    “After Ho is arrested in late 2017, the first phone call he makes is to James Biden, the president’s brother, because he’s looking for Hunter,” said Schweitzer.

    Why is that? What was going on between the Bidens and the Chinese government, exactly? And what does it all mean?

    …

    Hunter’s former client Patrick Ho is a criminal convicted and sentenced to three years in prison. Ho was sentenced for his role in a multimillion-dollar effort to bribe leaders from Chad and Uganda. That appears to be what Ho was attempting to do with Hunter: bribe him in order to buy protection from his powerful father. A CEFC intermediary reached out to Hunter Biden in December 2015 to set up a meeting between Hunter and Ye Jianming, the founder and chairman of CEFC, according to emails from Hunter Biden’s laptop hard drive. Hunter Biden at one point said he was working for Ye. Hunter, in a voicemail found on his laptop, tells a colleague,  “I’m representing the f**king spy chief of China.”

    …

    What does it all mean? The evidence strongly suggests that the Chinese government was seeking to bribe the Biden family to gain advantages both in terms of energy and also to protect its sources.

    …

    Subscribers to Public can read the rest here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 20:15

  • Why A Shocking Number Of Crazy-Sounding Right-Wing Conspiracy Theories Turned Out To Be True
    Why A Shocking Number Of Crazy-Sounding Right-Wing Conspiracy Theories Turned Out To Be True

    Authored by Michael Shellenberger via ‘Public’ Substack,

    “Theory” doesn’t mean what you think it means…

    The World Economic Forum, governments around the world, and the mainstream news media are sounding the alarm in Davos about crazy-sounding, right-wing conspiracy theories. And it’s easy to see why: conspiracy theories are prima facie silly. The boring truth is that people and institutions are terrible at keeping secrets. 

    And yet, a shocking number of crazy-sounding right-wing conspiracy theories have, recently, turned out to be true:

    • The World Economic Forum really does exercise a creepy influence over world leaders and it really does want “A Great Reset” whereby we’ll collectively move to living in low-energy, high-density, and low-privacy environments, having less physical wealth and, yes, eating insects for protein instead of meat. 

    • The FBI really did spy on Donald Trump’s campaign, run brief-and-leak operations, and spread misinformation about the extent of Russian election interference in ways that led nearly all of the media, media platforms, and Democrats to believe that Hunter Biden’s laptop was fake and anyone who talked about it is a conspiracy theorist, and in a way that may have constituted election interference.

    • Facebook and Twitter really did censor accurate covid information at the behest of the White House and Twitter, and operate secret blacklists to censor and deplatform disfavored voices and opinions, even when their own internal teams said the people being censored had not actually broken any of the platform’s rules.

    The people who allege that the above were, and remain, “conspiracy theories,” say that World Economic Forum is just a gabfest, the FBI was simply doing what bipartisan majorities in Congress and the President agreed was necessary after Russian election interference on the 2016 elections, and government officials and social media executives were doing the best they could with the information they had during a fast-moving pandemic where millions of lives were at stake.

    But if the World Economic Forum is a gabfest, it is also, including in its own opinion, enormously powerful, with its founder, Klaus Schwab, playing a mysteriously large role within the G-20 organization of world leaders.

    Russian influence over the 2016 election was massively overstated, and the FBI went far beyond what Congress and the President asked and appears to have carried out an orchestrated campaign to deliberately misinform the media and social media platforms about the Hunter Biden laptop, which it had in its possession. 

    And while Monday morning quarterbacking on covid often goes too far, it’s also the case that Twitter and Facebook censored qualified people who were expressing a reasonable point of view about the vaccines and suppressed factually-accurate vaccine information.

    What’s more, all of the above raise significant concerns about the current state of Western democracy.

    A rich, secretive, and unelected person, Klaus Schwab, is exercising a weirdly large influence over world leaders on the Left and Right, from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. 

    The FBI, the most important law enforcement organization in the world, is under the control of people who have shown great comfort in abusing the warrant process, leaking to the press, and influencing journalists and social media executives in what appears to be deliberate influence operations, known as IOs, and which used to be known as psyops. 

    And everybody from Davos to the White House to the mainstream corporate news media are using claims of “disinformation” and “misinformation” whether coming from Russians, 4chan, or Harvard professors, as excuses to censor social media platforms.

    Why is that, exactly? Why did so many crazy-sounding right-wing conspiracy theories turn out to be true? And why are the elites behaving so undemocratically?

    …

    The control of publicly-available information over the last 10 years by WEF, the White House, and intelligence agencies including the FBI has been remarkable. Cushy gabfests like the ones in Aspen and Davos are effective in making journalists subservient to elites. The ability of government agencies like the White House and FBI to abuse their power is particularly strong when they have the support of the majority of the public, as was the case with Covid and with Trump, whose support hovered between just 35 and 45 percent. And the centralization of power in a small number of social media sites — mostly Facebook and Twitter — created an opportunity to bully politicians and government officials to deprive hundreds of millions of people of true information and feed them false information.  

    But all of the above are retrograde attempts to put the Internet genie back in the bottle and thus doomed to fail. The takeover of Twitter by Elon Musk showed how fragile the control of social media platforms was. Musk not only made public just how much control the FBI exercised over Twitter, he also has destroyed the older blue checkmark verification system that biased the whole system toward woke-WEF ideology, or what Martin Gurri calls the “one-sided politics of identity and ecology.”

    …

    Change is coming. A growing number of people understand that they must pay for news and information from trustworthy and independent sources, ones without financials conflict of interest, and who make their values and beliefs explicit, rather than hide them…

    *  *  *

    Subscribe here to read more…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 20:15

  • China Outpacing US In AI Research Production
    China Outpacing US In AI Research Production

    In 2012, the United States dominated China in the field of AI research.

    Of the 25,000 or so papers published that year, the US led with 629 of the most-cited (top 10%) of citations by other papers. China was in second place at 425.

    In 2021, China produced approximately 43,000 of the 135,000 research papers on AI  – roughly twice as many as the United states. The same year, China accounted for 7,401 of the most-cited papers, beating the American tally by around 70%, according to a study by Japan’s Nikkei in conjunction with Dutch scientific publisher Elsevier.

    The study, which used AI-associated keywords to scan for academic and conference papers focusing on AI, found that Chinese companies Tencent, Alibaba and Huawei Technologies are among the top 10 companies producing AI research. Baidu, China’s leading search engine, came in 11th in both the quantity and quality of AI research.

    What’s more, China will likely keep up the momentum, as a 2017 government plan set a goal to become the world’s primary AI innovation center by 2030.

    The government-affiliated Chinese Academy of Sciences, the nation’s top scientific institution, possesses vast research capabilities. Tsinghua University, a public research university in Beijing, is also an AI hot spot.

    The need to accelerate research, development and application of cutting-edge technologies, including AI, was stressed in 2023 economic priorities outlined at this December’s closely watched Central Economic Work Conference, where President Xi Jinping spoke.

    The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said last Wednesday that growing AI and other emerging industries is a key priority for 2023. –Nikkei

    US tech giants have traditionally dominated the field of AI – with Google parent Alphabet, Microsoft and IBM constituting the largest three producers over the 10-year period the study noted. In 2021, six US companies were in the top-10 for most-cited research, while the remaining four were Chinese firms, Tencent, Alibaba, Huawei and State Grid Corp.

    Interestingly – government-owned operator State Grid is considered one of the best AI research institutions among Chinese corporations, because “the big data collected from hundreds of millions of smart meters.” The company is attempting to create the ability to predict power demand and identify problems throughout the electrical grid.

    Japan, meanwhile, has fallen behind in AI research – dropping from 6th place in 2019 to 18th in 2021.

    That said, META is building the world’s largest AI supercomputer in conjunction with NVIDIA, which could train models with more than a trillion parameters. For comparison, AI research tool ChatGPT has 175 billion parameters.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 19:55

  • McCarthy Rejects White House Demand For "Clean" Debt-Ceiling Hike
    McCarthy Rejects White House Demand For “Clean” Debt-Ceiling Hike

    Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) rejected President Joe Biden’s demand that Congress increase the nation’s debt ceiling without attaching any conditions such as the spending cuts that virtually all congressional Republicans are demanding.

    Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) speaks at a news conference in Statuary Hall of the U.S. Capitol Building on January 12, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    In an informal news conference with reporters just outside the Capitol, McCarthy said “we’re six months away, approximately, and what I would like to do is sit down with all the leaders, especially the President, and start having the discussion.”

    The Speaker said Biden’s refusal to discuss anything other than a “clean” increase in the debt ceiling, which limits federal borrowing, is “a sign of arrogance that he would say he wouldn’t even discuss it. I mean think about what the Democrats have done just in four years, they’ve increased discretionary spending by 30 percent. When Republicans were in control for eight years, discretionary spending didn’t go up one dollar.”

    Noting the national debt is nearly $32 trillion, McCarthy asked “why would you do this to any future generation in anything we do? Why wouldn’t you sit down and talk, especially with something as serious as a debt limit; why would you want to wait until the end? Who wants to put the nation through some type of threat at the last minute with the debt ceiling? Nobody wants to do that.”

    A Peterson Foundation billboard displaying the national debt is pictured on K Street in downtown Washington on Feb. 8, 2022. (Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Peter G. Peterson Foundation)

    McCarthy added that “any household that was mis-spending, the first thing they would do is sit down and set a budget. Why wouldn’t we request the House and Senate to do a budget … why wouldn’t we now set a budget, set a path that will get us to a balanced budget? And let’s start paying this debt off and make sure future generations have as many opportunities as we do.”

    Medicare, Social Security and the military would not be subject to spending cuts, according to McCarthy, who said Biden’s demand for a debt ceiling increase without strings is “off the table.”

    Biden Responds to Demand for Cuts

    McCarthy’s comment follows Biden’s Jan. 16 remark describing Republican demands that the debt ceiling increase be combined with significant cuts in federal spending as “fiscally demented.” The interest costs of servicing the national debt are in excess of $500 billion annually.

    Congress approved and Biden signed into law a $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill in late December that keeps the government funded through September. The immediate problem is that federal borrowing to pay for the omnibus bill technically will hit the debt ceiling Jan. 19, according to Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen.

    As a practical matter, the Treasury department has ways of avoiding a default on the debt interest payments that would give Biden and the Congress several months in which to work out a deal involving a boost in the ceiling combined with some level of specific spending cuts sought by House Republicans.

    President Joe Biden speaks to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, on Jan. 11, 2023, as he accompanies First Lady Jill Biden to Walter Reed hospital. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

    House Republicans are backing McCarthy’s demand for spending cuts. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) issued a Jan. 17 statement in which he says “every major piece of financial legislation ought to come with some incremental, responsible spending cuts to keep us moving along a trajectory towards a balanced budget.

    “That’ll take time and effort of course, but whether it’s a normal appropriations bill or something like a debt ceiling increase, every step along the way represents another opportunity to cut a little more spending to help balance the budget within 10 years.”

    Concerns Over National Debt

    Similarly, Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) issued a warning to her GOP colleagues and an unexpected vow, saying, “Our national debt is approaching a level not just harmful to economic growth and irresponsible to future generations, but dangerous to our national security today. We are entering treacherous waters and must couple any debt ceiling increases with real reforms.”

    The Indiana Republican continued, saying “huge amounts of politically directed spending and crony capitalism have created a significant oligopoly problem in nearly every market sector—not much different from oligarchs ruling in post-socialist countries. Health care monopolies lobbied by special interest groups, like hospitals, is one of the major examples.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 19:35

  • Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Paul Gosar Back On Committee Assignments
    Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Paul Gosar Back On Committee Assignments

    Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Two Republican House lawmakers landed committee assignments after having been stripped of them in the previous Democrat-controlled Congress on separate occasions in 2021.

    Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) smiles at Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, on Dec. 7, 2021. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) had both been stripped of their committee seats in 2021 over social media posts they had made.

    Their reinstatement to various committees fulfills a promise by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) who said back in November 2021 they would regain their committee posts for the 118th Congress if Republicans win the House.

    Both Greene and Gosar are now assigned to the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability, where Gosar had previously served.

    Greene is also assigned to the House Committee on Homeland Security, and Gosar will also hold a seat on the House Committee on Natural Resources, where he previously served.

    The Oversight committee is expected to be the forefront of investigating the Biden administration. Most recently, committee Republicans began a probe into President Joe Biden’s handling classified documents that were found at his office and Delaware home.

    The Homeland Security committee makes decisions on laws pertinent to U.S. national security, including on border security, counterterrorism, and cybersecurity, among others. It also conducts Congressional oversight of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

    The Natural Resources committee looks at legislation regarding energy, mineral and water resources, and national parks and public lands. It also conducts Congressional oversight of the Departments of the Interior, Commerce, and Agriculture.

    Greene Vows to Investigate Federal Government

    Greene issued statements late Tuesday upon her new assignments. She said the Oversight Committee is arguably “the most important committee [in] this Congress.”

    “We will return the role of the Oversight Committee to investigating waste, fraud, abuse, and mismanagement of the federal government, which is exactly what the American people are fed up with,” she wrote.

    “Joe Biden, be prepared. We are going to uncover every corrupt business dealing, every foreign entanglement, every abuse of power, and every check cut for The Big Guy.”

    She added that Republicans will also “investigate every bit of government being used to abuse the American people, which includes “every three and four letter agency.”

    On her appointment to the Homeland Security Committee, Green highlighted security issues including a surge in illegal immigration across the southern border, Chinese fentanyl entering the United States via Mexican cartels, and cyber attacks.

    “We will investigate the Biden administration’s violations of our laws and fund (and defund) programs to defend our border and American sovereignty,” Greene said.

    Gosar, in an interview with The Epoch Times back in January 2021, had said several Democrats should be stripped of their committee assignments if Republicans win the House. At the time, he singled out Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), and Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) should be ejected from their committees, citing potential conflicts of interest and other concerns he has with the lawmakers.

    McCarthy has previously pledged to oust Schiff, Swalwell, and Omar. Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) announced on Twitter Tuesday: “Speaker McCarthy confirms that Adam Schiff, Eric Swalwell, and Ilhan Omar are getting kicked off the Intel and Foreign Affairs Committees. Promises made. Promises kept!”

    How Greene, Gosar Were Removed from Committee Seats

    Greene had been stripped of her committee assignments in February 2021 on a vote of 230–199, largely on party lines—just a month after she was sworn into Congress for the first time. At the time, Greene had been assigned to the House Budget Committee and the House Education and Labor Committee.

    Democrats cited social media posts she made before she entered office as grounds to remove her. At the time, McCarthy had denounced Greene’s past comments but called on House Republicans to vote against the Democratic resolution to take away her committee assignments.

    Of concern were posts where Greene had speculated that the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks were a false flag and alleged that deadly U.S. school shootings were staged, among other theories. Reports also claimed that Greene had “liked” a Facebook comment suggesting that “a bullet to the head” of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) “would be quicker.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 18:55

  • Tesla Video Depicting Self-Driving Car Was Staged, Engineer Testifies
    Tesla Video Depicting Self-Driving Car Was Staged, Engineer Testifies

    An October 2016 video that purported to showcase Tesla’s self-driving technology in action was actually staged, according to July 2022 testimony from a senior engineer at the company reviewed by Reuters, which was first to report the development.   

    As a result, the video depicted capabilities that Tesla’s technology had not yet attained, such as accelerating at a green light or stopping at red one, the engineer said. 

    The promotional video, posted on a tesla.com page titled “Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Teslas,” began with an explanatory screen that read, “The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself.”

    This language from the October 2016 video seems to unambiguously make a claim that’s now been refuted by testimony

    Likewise, when he promoted the video on Twitter, Elon Musk implied the car was driving itself with “no human input at all.” 

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    However, in the deposition transcript reviewed by Reuters, Tesla director of autopilot software Ashok Elluswamy said human drivers intervened on the test runs — and when they tried showing the Tesla parking without a driver, the car crashed into a fence in the company’s parking lot.  

    The testimony from Elluswamy was submitted as evidence in a lawsuit against Tesla over a deadly 2018 crash that killed Apple engineer Walter Huang in Mountain View, California.  

    “[It was] obviously misleading to feature that video without any disclaimer or asterisk,” Andrew McDevitt, an attorney for Huang’s widow, told Reuters.  

    In addition to civil action, Tesla is also the focus of a U.S. Department of Justice criminal investigation over the company’s statements about its vehicle’s self-driving capabilities.    

    “The intent of the video was not to accurately portray what was available for customers in 2016,” said Elluswamy. “It was to portray what was possible to build into the system.” However, the language in the video and from CEO Musk seems at odds with that goal. 

    Some eyebrow-raising facets of the video’s production were reported in 2021 by The New York Times, including that the car’s route had been charted ahead of time by software that wasn’t available to customers, and that the car hit a barrier on Tesla’s property, necessitating repairs. 

    According to that same Times report, when Tesla debuted Autopilot 2.0 in October 2016, Musk described it in terms that seemed to overstate the vehicle’s capabilities, taking his engineers by surprise.  

    The video in controversy is still posted on Tesla’s website, and we’ve embedded a YouTube copy below:  

     

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 18:35

  • Texas Brewery Cancels Kyle Rittenhouse Fundraiser Against Censorship
    Texas Brewery Cancels Kyle Rittenhouse Fundraiser Against Censorship

    Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A Texas-based brewery recently decided to cancel a fundraising event featuring Kyle Rittenhouse, a man who rose to national media attention after he shot and killed two people during a riot in Kenosha, Wisconsin, in 2020, and who was found not guilty of murder after he argued he acted in self-defense.

    Kyle Rittenhouse waits for the jury to enter the room to continue testifying during his trial at the Kenosha County Courthouse in Kenosha, Wis., on Nov. 10, 2021. (Sean Krajacic-Pool/Getty Images)

    The Southern Star Brewing Company in Conroe, Texas, had previously planned to host a fundraising event on Jan. 26. Rittenhouse was set to be the featured speaker at the planned event, a “Rally Against Censorship.”

    Rittenhouse was present at a riot in Kenosha, Wisconsin, in August 2020 with an AR-15-style rifle. During the riot, the then-17-year-old Rittenhouse was with a group of other armed individuals protecting business properties in the area. At one point in the evening, Rittenhouse was separated from the rest of the group and was shot at and chased by people in the crowd. In the initial chase, Rittenhouse fled and then turned and fatally shot the man chasing him. As Rittenhouse then ran toward police, additional individuals continued to chase him. During the chase, Rittenhouse fell to the ground and fatally shot a second individual who swung a skateboard at his head and grabbed at his gun. Rittenhouse also shot a man who pointed a handgun at him, striking that individual in the same limb with which the individual held his gun.

    Prosecutors charged Rittenhouse with murder but a jury found him not guilty after he testified that he had acted in self-defense.

    Defiance Press & Publishing, the organizers of the “Rally Against Censorship,” promoted Rittenhouse’s headline appearance.

    “Kyle Rittenhouse was found not guilty on all charges in a trial where he received sharply negative coverage from mainstream media; he was called a white supremacist, and numerous outlets repeated the falsehood that he illegally transported the rifle he used in the fatal shootings across state lines,” the publishing company said. “With the support of countless patriotic and freedom-loving Americans, Kyle beat the odds, won his freedom, and proved to a nation that justice is possible, even in the face of overwhelming political and societal pressures.”

    Despite renting out the venue, Southern Star Brewing Company announced its decision to cancel the event in a post on Twitter on Friday.

    “No more,” the brewery’s statement began. “Southern Star Brewery is an apolitical organization, but we feel that this event doesn’t reflect our own values and we could not in good faith continue to rent our space for the event on 1/26. We don’t do rallies, we make beer for people who like beer.”

    While the brewery did not directly specify which event it canceled, Defiance Press & Publishing stated directly that the “Rally Against Censorship” was the event the brewery had canceled.

    Rittenhouse Responds

    Following the brewing company’s decision to pull out of the event, Rittenhouse wrote in a Twitter post: “It’s really disappointing to see that places continue to censor me and not allow my voice and many other voices to be heard because they bend to the woke crowd. I’ll keep you guys updated on the event on the 26th that I was supposed to speak at.”

     Defiance Press & Publishing said it is working to find a new venue to host its rally with Rittenhouse.

    Grocery Store Allegedly Pressured Brewery to Cancel

    Defiance Press & Publishing alleged the brewery pulled out of the event under pressure from a Texas grocery store chain, H-E-B.

    “This sudden decision is nothing other than an outrageous display of censorship. Up until now, Southern Star Brewery had agreed to host this event with full knowledge that Kyle Rittenhouse would be invited and had no problem whatsoever. It was not until H-E-B threatened to end their business with them that they decided to pull our event. Clearly, money talks and values walk for Southern Star,” Defiance Press founder David Roberts said.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 01/18/2023 – 18:15

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Jan 18

Today’s News 18th January 2023

  • Not A Coup, But A Cover-Up
    Not A Coup, But A Cover-Up

    Authored by Lee Smith via The Epoch Times,

    Speculation is growing in Republican media circles that the recent scandal over President Joe Biden’s improper possession of classified information from his time as vice president represents an internal coup. The theory holds that Democratic Party insiders, particularly Obama-era officials situated within the Biden administration, are using the revelations of Biden’s carelessness to push him aside or at least prevent him from running for reelection in 2024.

    Capitol Hill sources say it’s true that the Biden administration is a hornet’s nest with several factions vying for control, including one led by domestic policy adviser Susan Rice and Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, both Obama loyalists. However, a careful look at the evidence shows that senior Biden aides, Democratic officials, and the party’s media apparatus are circling the wagons to protect Biden. What we’re watching isn’t a coup but a coverup.

    Press reports show that at the beginning of November 2022, Biden’s lawyers found classified documents in his office at a Washington think tank affiliated with the University of Pennsylvania that bears his name: the Penn Biden Center. This account is improbable. If Biden’s legal team, rather than his administrative staff, typically sorted through his papers, it’s likely they would have previously identified the classified records in question.

    There were at least two other opportunities for Biden’s aides to find the papers among his belongings. The first came when his staff packed his boxes as he left the Office of the Vice President in January 2017. It isn’t yet known where the documents were kept between then and when they were moved to the Penn Biden Center when it opened in 2018. The move would have given his staff another chance to find the classified documents. Hence, it seems likely that it was an outside source that alerted either the Biden team, the National Archives, or the Department of Justice to the fact that the president was improperly holding classified documents.

    In a press conference on Jan. 12, Attorney General Merrick Garland said that on Nov. 9, 2022, he asked the FBI to assess whether those records had been mishandled. On Nov. 14, 2022, he asked the U.S. attorney in Chicago, John Lausch, to conduct an initial investigation.

    Administration officials and Biden loyalists in federal law enforcement knew they had a problem. Mishandling classified documents was the basis of a broad Democratic Party campaign against Biden’s possible 2024 rival, former President Donald Trump.

    The FBI raided Trump’s Florida home in August 2022 to seize classified documents, and rumors circulated that indictments were in the offing. Eventually, the Department of Justice appointed a special counsel to investigate Trump. Biden even chastised his predecessor for mishandling classified documents in a September 2022 media interview. And now, here was Biden as culpable as the man they hoped to destroy with the same instrument—classified documents.

    The Biden team moved to attenuate the potential fallout with a leak to the press. A Nov. 14, 2022, Washington Post article citing “people familiar with the matter” explained that “FBI interviews with witnesses so far, they said, also do not point to any nefarious effort by Trump to leverage, sell or use the government secrets. Instead, the former president seemed motivated by a more basic desire not to give up what he believed was his property.”

    That is, contrary to the public outcry that Trump had taken the documents for illicit purposes—he was selling U.S. nuclear secrets to Saudi Arabia, one journalist claimed without evidence or reason—there was nothing sinister at play. Rather, he was simply motivated by ego.

    The Nov. 14, 2022, article was evidence that the Biden circle was walking back its scorched-earth campaign against Trump on classified papers. Nearly three months later, it’s clear why—to reframe the context for when news of Biden’s own problems with classified documents went public.

    When the story broke last week in administration-friendly media outlets, Democratic lawmakers not only rallied around the president but also compared his response favorably to Trump’s. Unlike Trump’s team that argued with the institution tasked to keep U.S. records, Biden’s lawyers, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) intimated, “appear to have taken immediate and proper action to notify the National Archives.”

    Dozens of media publications, from The New York Times to Vox, have published explainers showing why what Trump did is much worse than what Biden did.

    Trump had more documents, the argument runs; Biden’s lawyers were more forthright; and so forth. The fact is that no one on the Democratic side has broken with the president or even so much as hinted that he did something wrong. This isn’t what an internal coup looks like.

    The special counsel appointed to investigate Biden’s handling of classified documents identifies as a Republican but he appears to be a Never Trump Republican. Robert Hur is a protégé of Rod Rosenstein, the deputy attorney general under Trump who reportedly offered to wear a wire to spy on the previous president.

    Rosenstein furthered the anti-Trump cause by withholding documents from the investigation led by former Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) into alleged FBI crimes and abuses committed during the bureau’s Trump–Russia probe. He also allegedly threatened to subpoena Nunes’s staffers, including Kash Patel. A winter 2018 chain of emails (pdf) between Department of Justice officials shows that Hur was part of the law enforcement team tasked to stonewall Nunes’s investigation.

    Former congressional investigators say that Hur’s appointment as special counsel is intended not to uncover potential crimes committed by the president but rather to give the appearance of a genuine investigation and thereby bury the issue once and for all. And thus, actions taken by the Biden administration and the responses of Democratic officials and the media show that what’s unfolding at present isn’t a coup, but a coverup.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 23:40

  • How Ozone-Depleting Gases (Almost) Disappeared
    How Ozone-Depleting Gases (Almost) Disappeared

    According to an expert assessment released last week, the hole in the ozone layer is expected to close completely over the upcoming decades.

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, the layer in the world’s stratosphere containing a high concentration of ozone had ruptured every year since the 1980s due to harmful chemicals being released into the air and depleting the atmosphere’s naturally occurring ozone. Striking a hopeful note for the successes possible in environmental and climate conservation, the phase-out of substances like CFCs are expected to reverse the damage done.

    Infographic: How Ozone-Depleting Gases (Almost) Disappeared | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The UN Ozone Secretariat supplies data on the annual global consumption of ozone-depleting substances and how their use decreased since the end of the 1980s.

    CFCs (Chlorofluorocarbons) and halons had been the single most consumed ozone-depleting gases some decades ago and were used in aerosols and fire extinguishers or as refrigerants and solvents. Their use has all but been phased out. The use of other ozone-harming gases has also been cut down to a minimum. The exception are Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), which have been employed as a bridge technology to phase out more harmful sustances faster. They are still used today but due to their shorter lifespan in the atmosphere do much less harm. The substances are scheduled for a complete phase-out by 2030. Another substitute for ozone-harming gases – Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) – do not have an effect on the ozone layer. However, their emissions from the use in air conditioning, insulation and refrigeration are many times as potent as CO₂ emissions in warming the global climate.

    Holes in the ozone layer have been forming over the Earth’s poles due to the globe’s wind pattern and the regions’ cold winter climate, which fosters conditions for ozone depletion that manifest themselves in the spring. Due to Antarctica featuring a cold-attracting landmass, the hole in the ozone layer in the Southern hemisphere has usually been larger. Once a hole in the ozone layer has formed, ultraviolet radiation from the sun hits the Earth more strongly, for example heightening the risk of skin cancer.

    The ozone hole over the Antarctic varies in size each year but has been growing smaller lately. Under current scenarios, the ozone layer is expected to be restored to its 1980 condition by 2066 at the latest.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 23:20

  • Mapping Out All The Key Revelations From The 'Twitter Files' So Far…
    Mapping Out All The Key Revelations From The ‘Twitter Files’ So Far…

    Authored by Petr Svab via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Documents revealed by Twitter’s new owner, tech billionaire Elon Musk, show the social media company intertwined with a government-private censorship apparatus.

    Twitter suppressed or removed content on various subjects, including irregularities in the 2020 elections, mail-in voting issues, and various aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The company was under government pressure to purge such content and its purveyors from the platform, though most of the time it was cooperating with the censorship requests willingly, the documents indicate.

    INFOGRAPHIC (Click on image to enlarge or Click Here to download)

    Click on infographic to enlarge.

    Musk took over Twitter in October, taking the company private. He then fired around half of the staff and much of the upper management, vowing to take Twitter in a new direction. The “#TwitterFiles” releases have been part of his promised focus on transparency for the company.

    He allowed several independent journalists to submit search queries that were then used by Twitter staff to search through the company’s internal documents, sometimes under the condition that the resulting stories would be first published on the platform itself.

    The two journalists primarily responsible for the releases have been journalists Matt Taibbi, a former contributing editor for Rolling Stone magazine, and Bari Weiss, a former editor at both The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. Both are liberals who have expressed disillusionment with the more extreme currents of progressivism and neoliberalism.

    Others involved in the releases have been independent journalists Lee Fang and David Zweig, former New York Times reporter Alex Berenson, as well as author and environmentalist Michael Shellenberger.

    The journalists have only released a fraction of the documents they reviewed. They’ve also redacted the names of employees involved, other than some high-level executives.

    The documents show that the FBI and other state, local, and federal agencies have been scrutinizing the political speech of Americans on a significant scale, and trying to get lawful speech suppressed or removed online. Many conservative and traditionally liberal commentators have deemed that a violation of the First Amendment.

    Twitter, a major hub of political speech, has been among the main targets of censorship. Many news stories have broken on Twitter in recent years and a significant portion of the nation’s political debate takes place on the platform, as it allows an efficient way for direct and public interaction between all on the platform, from the most prominent to the least.

    Twitter resisted some censorship requests, but there was little sign the company did so as a matter of principle. Rather, executives sometimes couldn’t find a policy they could use as a justification. Prior Twitter chief executive Jack Dorsey was under pressure from his lieutenants to expand the policies to allow more thorough censorship, the documents show.

    “The hypothesis underlying much of what we’ve implemented is that if exposure, e.g., misinformation directly causes harm, we should use remediations that reduce exposure, and limiting the spread/virality of content is a good way to do that (by just reducing prevalence overall),” said Yoel Roth, then Twitter’s head of Trust and Safety, which governs content policy, in a 2021 internal message published by Weiss.

    “We got Jack on board with implementing this for civic integrity in the near term, but we’re going to need to make a more robust case to get this into our repertoire of policy remediations—especially for other policy domains.”

    Jack Dorsey creator, co-founder, and Chairman of Twitter and co-founder & CEO of Square in Miami, Fla., on June 04, 2021. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    In many cases, Twitter leaders de facto allowed the government to silence its critics on the platform.

    Many censorship requests came in with an imperious attitude, particularly those from the Biden White House, but also some from the office of Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who at the time headed the powerful House Intelligence Committee.

    Around November 2020, Schiff’s office sent a list of dema to Twitter, including for the removal of “any and all content” about the committee’s staff and suspend “many” accounts including that of Paul Sperry, a journalist with RealClearInvestigations.

    Schiff’s office accused Sperry of harassment and promoting “false QAnon conspiracies.”

    Sperry rejected the allegation, asking Schiff to show evidence for his claims and announced he was considering legal action.

    Schiff’s demands were apparently a response to Sperry’s articles that speculated on the identity of the White House whistleblower that alleged a “quid pro quo” between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    Sperry reported, using anonymous sources, that the whistleblower was likely then-CIA analyst Eric Ciaramella, who was overheard talking in the White House with Sean Misko, a holdover staffer from the Obama administration. Misko later joined Schiff’s committee.

    Twitter rejected Schiff’s demands, save for reviewing “again” Sperry’s account activity. Sperry’s account was suspended months later. Taibbi said he wasn’t able to find out why.

    Under Pressure

    The many censorship requests Twitter received via the FBI were phrased as merely bringing information to its attention, leaving it up to the company to decide what to do with them. But Twitter executives clearly felt compelled to accommodate these requests, even in cases where they internally struggled to justify doing so, the documents show.

    The government pressure took several forms. The FBI would follow up on its requests and if they weren’t fulfilled, Twitter had to explain itself to the bureau. If Twitter’s position on an issue differed from the one expected by the government, company executives would be questioned and made aware that the bureau, and even the broader intelligence community, wasn’t happy. That would send the executives into triage mode, rushing to salvage the relationship, which it apparently considered essential.

    Corporate media served as another pressure point. If Twitter wouldn’t do what it was told fast enough, the media would be provided with information portraying Twitter as ignoring some problem of paramount importance, such as possible foreign influence operations on its platform.

    One censorship request, for instance, targeted an account allegedly run by Russian intelligence, though Twitter wasn’t given any evidence of it.

    “Due to a lack of technical evidence on our end, I’ve generally left it be, waiting for more evidence,” said one Twitter executive that previously worked for the CIA, according to Taibbi.

    “Our window on that is closing, given that government partners are becoming more aggressive on attribution and reporting on it.”

    The internal email suggests that Twitter, despite having no concrete evidence to back it, wouldn’t dare to disobey the request because of the media fallout of the government publicly labeling the account as run by Russian intelligence.

    Congress was perhaps the heaviest sword of Damocles hanging over Twitter’s head. Lawmakers could not only spur negative media coverage, but also tie up the company in hearings and investigations, or even introduce legislation that could hurt Twitter’s bottom line.

    For instance, just as Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) was pushing Twitter to produce more evidence of Russian influence operations on its platform in 2017, he also teamed up with Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) to propose a bill that would have required extensive disclosures of online political advertising.

    In the meantime, Twitter managers were convinced that lawmakers were leaking information Twitter provided them and seeding negative news stories, even as the company was trying to placate them with increasingly stringent actions toward actual and alleged Russia-linked accounts.

    Even though the FBI was officially only alerting Twitter to activities of malign foreign actors, many of the censorship requests were simply lists of accounts with little to no evidence of malign foreign links. At times, Twitter tried to ask for more information, noting that it couldn’t find any evidence on its end, but often it simply complied. It was impossible for Twitter to do its due diligence on each request—there were simply too many, according to Taibbi.

    One request revealed by Taibbi claimed that “the attached email accounts” were created “possibly for use in influence operations, social media collection, or social engineering.”

    “Without further explanation, Twitter would be forwarded an excel doc,” Taibbi said.

    Censorship requests were lopsided against the political right. Some researchers said that the right was much more involved in spreading misinformation, but the documents indicate that the censorship wasn’t so much a matter of a right-left dichotomy, but rather a pro- and anti-establishment one. Even some left-leaning accounts were targeted if they strayed too far from the official government narrative.

    Moreover, the right didn’t appear too keen on demanding censorship to begin with. Taibbi couldn’t find a single censorship request from the Trump campaign, Trump White House, or even any Republican, though he was told there were some.

    On the other hand, there seemed to be no appetite across the board for targeting misinformation coming from the establishment itself

    An exterior view of “The Mac Shop”, where Hunter Biden allegedly brought his laptop for repair but never picked it up, in Wilmington, Del., on Oct. 21, 2020. (ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images)

    Hunter Biden’s Laptop

    Twitter’s suppression of the 2020 New York Post exposé on Hunter Biden, son of then-candidate Joe Biden, was dissected in the Twitter release in particular detail. Apparently, some Twitter executives, particularly Roth, head of Trust and Safety, were regularly invited to meetings with the FBI and other intelligence agencies to receive briefings on the online activities of foreign regimes. In the several months prior to the 2020 election, Roth had been conditioned to expect a “hack-and-leak” Russian operation, possibly in October and involving Hunter Biden.

    The FBI alleged there was some evidence of Russian influence operation related to Hunter Biden’s dealings in Ukraine. But the bureau was also aware that Hunter Biden left his laptop with a trove of explosive information in a New York repair shop and that a copy of it was handed to Trump’s then-lawyer, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. The FBI picked up the laptop from the repair shop in December 2019 and had Giuliani under surveillance in August 2020, when the repairman gave him the copy. As the FBI knew, the laptop information was neither hacked, nor a figment of a Russian plot.

    When the Post broke the story, Twitter executives were left with no doubt it was exactly what the FBI had been warning about.

    “This feels a lot like a somewhat subtle leak operation,” Roth commented in an internal email, despite acknowledging he had no evidence for such a claim, save for “questionable origins” of the laptop, which was apparently abandoned by Hunter Biden at a computer repair shop.

    Roth noted that the story didn’t actually violate any Twitter rules. Nevertheless, it was marked “unsafe” and blocked on Twitter under its policy against hacked materials, despite there being no evidence the materials were hacked.

    Twitter’s then-Deputy General Counsel James Baker backed the censorship move, saying it was “reasonable” to “assume” the Hunter Biden information was hacked.

    Baker was FBI General Counsel until May 2018. He joined Twitter in June 2020. At the FBI, Baker was closely involved in the Russia investigation scandal where the FBI embroiled the Trump campaign and later the Trump administration in exhaustive investigations based on paper-thin and fabricated allegations that Trump colluded with Russia to sway the 2016 election. The allegations were produced by operatives funded by the campaign of Trump’s opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

    The FBI was in fact aware of no intelligence suggesting a “hack-and-leak” operation ahead of the 2020 election, as testified in November 2022 by Elvis Chan, head of the cyber branch at the FBI’s San Francisco Field Office, which was responsible for communications with Twitter and other tech companies with headquarters in its jurisdiction.

    Twitter itself found very little Russian activity ahead of the 2020 election, Shellenberger reported, citing internal communications.

    Shadowbanning

    Twitter has long denied the practice of shadowbanning—suppressing the reach of an account without informing the user. The denial, however, specifically defined shadowbanning as making the person’s content invisible to others. What people have been complaining about is that Twitter would suppress how many people see their content without making it invisible altogether—Twitter has been doing that a lot, the internal materials show.

    One Twitter engineer told Weiss: “We control visibility quite a bit. And we control the amplification of your content quite a bit. And normal people do not know how much we do.”

    Among those whose accounts were surreptitiously throttled was Jay Bhattacharya, Stanford University professor of medicine and one of the early critics of the COVID-19 lockdowns.

    Others included Dan Bongino, conservative podcaster and former Secret Service agent, and Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, the country’s largest conservative youth group.

    COVID-19

    Twitter has extensively suppressed information regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. Anything about the origin of the virus, its treatment, the vaccines developed for it, and public policies to mitigate its spread had to align with the official position of the federal government, as promulgated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

    Zweig said he “found countless instances of tweets labeled as ‘misleading’ or taken down entirely, sometimes triggering account suspensions, simply because they veered from CDC guidance or differed from establishment views.”

    Twitter user @KelleyKga, a self-described fact-checker, criticized a tweet that falsely claimed that COVID-19 was the leading cause of death by disease in children. @KelleyKga pointed out that such a claim would require cherry-picking data, backing his argument with data from the CDC. His criticism, however, was labeled as “misleading” and suppressed. On the other hand, the tweet that contained the false claim was not suppressed.

    All physician Euzebiusz Jamrozik did was write on Twitter an accurate summarization of study results on COVID-19 vaccine side effects. The tweet was labeled “misleading” and suppressed.

    Sometimes, it appears, Twitter suppressed the information on its own, but many of the COVID-19-related requests came from the government and even directly from the Biden White House, internal files show.

    In one email, White House Digital Director Rob Flaherty accused Twitter of “bending over backwards” to resist one of his censorship requests, calling it “total Calvinball”—a game where rules are made up along the way. The email wasn’t part of the Twitter files. It came out during an ongoing lawsuit against the Biden administration filed by the attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana.

    Another White House staffer wanted Twitter to censor a tweet by Robert Kennedy, Jr., a long-time critic of vaccination. The staffer mused whether Twitter could “get moving on the process for having it removed ASAP.”

    “And then if we can keep an eye out for tweets that fall in this same genre that would be great,” he said in the Jan. 23, 2021, email.

    The administration wasn’t always trying to get such content removed. People who merely expressed “hesitancy” about the vaccines were supposed to only have their content suppressed from reaching any significant audience, the documents indicate.

    The Biden administration had a lot at stake as the vaccine rollout was one of its first and most high-profile tasks. There were other stakeholders as well.

    Joe Biden delivers remarks on the Covid-19 response and the vaccination program at the White House in Washington, on Aug. 23, 2021. (JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

    Several censorship requests came from Scott Gottlieb, board member and head of the regulatory and compliance committee at Pfizer, the pharmaceutical giant that made the most popular COVID-19 vaccine and raked in tens of billions of dollars on sales of it over the past two years.

    Gottlieb sent Twitter at least three requests. One targeted a doctor who argued on the platform that naturally acquired immunity to COVID-19 is superior to vaccination. Twitter suppressed the tweet, even though the doctor was correct.

    Another request targeted author Justin Hart, who argued on Twitter against school closures, pointing out that COVID-19 fatalities among children are extremely rare. Gottlieb sent the request shortly before Pfizer received approval for the use of its vaccine on children. Twitter didn’t comply with the request.

    Yet another request targeted former NY Times reporter Berenson. Gottlieb claimed that Berenson’s criticism of Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of COVID-19 response in the Biden administration, was causing threats of physical violence toward Fauci. Twitter suspended Berenson’s account shortly after.

    Gottlieb sent his requests to the same Twitter official who served as a contact person for censorship requests coming from the White House.

    Trump Deplatforming

    Trump was particularly effective on Twitter. His soundbites, honed over decades of dealing with the New York press, played well on the brevity-oriented Twitter, earning the president some 90 million followers and lending him the power to bypass media filters and instantly grab national attention. Trump’s Twitter presidency, however, brewed scorn in the beltway, especially among the foreign policy crowd that was used to diplomatic subtlety.

    Twitter’s removal of Trump a few days after the Jan. 6, 2021, protest and riot at the U.S. Capitol appears to be one of those instances where Twitter executives acted on their own, breaking the platform’s content policies in suppressing the voice of a sitting American president, internal documents indicate.

    Twitter suspended Trump’s account on Jan. 8, 2021, after the president made two posts.

    “The 75,000,000 great American Patriots who voted for me, AMERICA FIRST, and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, will have a GIANT VOICE long into the future. They will not be disrespected or treated unfairly in any way, shape or form!!!” said one of Trump’s tweets.

    “To all of those who have asked, I will not be going to the Inauguration on January 20th,” read the other.

    Twitter moderators and supervisors agreed that the Tweets didn’t violate any rules.

    “I think we’d have a hard time saying this is incitement,” wrote one staffer. “It’s pretty clear he’s saying the ‘American Patriots’ are the ones who voted for him and not the terrorists (we can call them that, right?) from Wednesday.”

    Higher executives, under pressure from their many anti-Trump employees, wouldn’t accept that conclusion and continued to push for construing Trump’s comments as malicious.

    “The biggest question is whether a tweet line the one this morning from Trump, which isn’t a rule violation on its face, is being used as coded incitement to further violence,” Vijaya Gadde, Twitter’s Head of Legal, Policy, and Trust, argued in an internal message.

    Another Twitter moderation team quickly furnished Gadde’s argument with a narrative. Trump was a “leader of a violent extremist group who is glorifying the group and its recent actions,” the team concluded, according to internal messages.

    Undermining the Nunes Memo

    In January 2018, then-Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) submitted his memo detailing FBI surveillance abuses in pursuit of the Trump-Russia investigation. The memo was correct on virtually all points of substance, as later confirmed by DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz.

    The memo was dismissed by the corporate media as a “joke,” but gained significant traction on social media nonetheless. Legacy media and several lawmakers then came out claiming the memo was boosted online by accounts linked to Russian influence operations.

    However, Twitter found no evidence of Russian influence behind the #ReleaseTheMemo hashtag.

    The claims were all sourced to the Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD), a group set up in 2017 under the German Marshall Fund, a think tank funded by the American, German, and Swedish governments.

    The ASD is closely linked to the U.S. foreign policy and national security establishment. It was headed at the time by Laura Rosenberger, a former Clinton campaign adviser who held various roles at the State Department and the National Security Council. Its Advisory Council includes former Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta, former CIA head Michael Morell, and former Department of Homeland Security (DHS) head Mike Chertoff.

    Twitter officials were at a loss as to how the ASD came to its conclusions.

    “We investigated, found that engagement was overwhelmingly organic and driven by strong VIT [Very Important Tweeters] engagement (including Wikileaks, [Donald Trump, Jr., Rep. Steve King, and others),” Trust and Safety head Roth wrote in an internal message.

    In fact, the “dashboard” ASD used to make its claims had already been reverse-engineered by Twitter—a fact Roth didn’t want to disclose to the media.

    Twitter tried debunking the story behind the scenes without giving out such details, but to no avail. Initially, reporters ran with the story without even reaching out to Twitter, Roth wrote.

    The initial letter on the matter from Schiff and Sen. Diane Feinstein (D-Calif.), the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee at the time, also came out before giving Twitter a chance to respond, internal messages say.

    Twitter tried to stop Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) from piling on with his own letter, but again failed.

    “Blumenthal isn’t always looking for real and nuanced solutions. He wants to get credit for pushing us further. And he may move on only when the press moves on,” commented Carlos Monje, Twitter’s then-Public Policy director, in an internal message. Formerly a Department of Transportation official, Monje returned to the department under the Biden administration.

    In the end, Twitter never publicly challenged the Russia narrative.

    Aiding Pentagon Psyops

    In 2017, a Pentagon official asked Twitter to “whitelist” several accounts the Defense Department was using to spread its message in the Middle East. Twitter obliged, giving the accounts similar privileges it was reserving for verified accounts.

    Later, however, the Pentagon removed any apparent connections between the accounts and the U.S. government, making them de facto surreptitious. Even though the accounts should have been removed under Twitter’s inauthentic activity policy, the company left them up for several years, independent journalist Fang reported.

    Federal ‘Belly button’ of Investigation

    The FBI served as a conduit for other government agencies to pass information to Twitter and ask for favors, according to Taibbi.

    In one exchange, FBI cyber head Chan explained that the bureau would funnel to Twitter communications from the U.S. intelligence community (USIC), but other election-related communications would come from the DHS’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).

    “We can give you everything we’re seeing from the FBI and USIC agencies,” Chan said. “CISA will know what’s going on in each state.”

    He then asked if Twitter would like to communicate with CISA separately or if it would prefer to “rely on the FBI to be the belly button of the [U.S. government].”

    Twitter executives were surprised to learn that the FBI had agents specifically dedicated to searching Twitter and flagging content policy violations.

    Since 2017, Twitter has employed at least 15 former FBI agents, further entangling the agency with the platform. The practice is so common, there was an internal discussion group at Twitter for former agents.

    The FBI responded to the Twitter files disclosures in a statement that labeled the reporting “misinformation” spread by “conspiracy theorists and others … with the sole purpose of attempting to discredit the agency.”

    Department of Homeland Censorship

    The DHS has managed to shoehorn speech policing into its mandate to protect critical infrastructure. In January 2017, shortly before leaving the White House, President Barack Obama designated elections as critical infrastructure. The DHS’s CISA then made it its job not only to protect elections from hackers, but also from misinformation and disinformation.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 23:00

  • FBI Decided Not To Monitor Biden Document Search
    FBI Decided Not To Monitor Biden Document Search

    After President Biden’s lawyers found classified documents at an office he used at a DC think tank, His Justice Department considered, and then declined, a plan to have FBI agents monitor a search for classified documents at his residences, in order to ‘avoid complicating later stages of the investigation,’ and because Biden’s attorneys ‘had quickly turned over a first batch and were cooperating,’ the Wall Street Journal reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

    Instead, the DOJ decided that it would be just fine for Biden’s lawyers to conduct the additional searches by themselves, and would agree to immediately notify the Justice Department if they found any other potentially classified records – after which law-enforcement authorities would take them.

    The arrangement meant that FBI agents wouldn’t bear witness to things such as the volume, or contents, of whatever might turn up. This is, of course, the same FBI that participated in a plan (and fabricated evidence) in a plot to frame former President Trump as a Russian asset, and then ran cover for the Bidens during the 2020 US election – telling social media companies that Hunter Biden’s laptop, or anything like it, was likely Russian disinformation.

    In the week since news reports first surfaced about the documents, the incident has drawn parallels to the discovery of a much larger number of documents at former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in Florida, which federal agents obtained a warrant to search in August after more than a year of negotiations between Mr. Trump’s lawyers, the National Archives and the Justice Department and after Mr. Trump’s lawyers said all documents had been returned. -WSJ

    After the initial finding at the Penn-Biden Center in early November (and not disclosed until last week), classified materials were discovered on three separate occasions in Biden’s Wilmington house in December and January, in the garage and a room adjacent to it, White House lawyer Richard Sauber said last week.

    According to Sauber, the documents were “inadvertently placed” at the locations.

    Trump supporters have accused the DOJ of a double standard in the handling of the Biden situation vs. Trump’s. And of course, as President, Trump’s ability to declassify the documents obtained in the raid remains a constitutional grey area. 

    Biden’s supporters have pointed to the president’s cooperation, however the DOJ’s willingness to let Biden’s lawyers conduct unsupervised searches is obviously fraught with concern.

    According to the White House, it’s no big deal.

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 22:40

  • The Renewable Energy Problem That No One Talks About
    The Renewable Energy Problem That No One Talks About

    Authored by Peter Castle via The Epoch Times,

    An obvious barrier to adopting wind and solar power for electricity supply is their intermittency – when the wind isn’t blowing, and the sun isn’t shining, substitute sources are required. This issue is given much attention by conservative media, as it should.

    Yet one of the less well-known roadblocks for these renewable technologies is frequency control, even though it becomes a critical concern much sooner.

    Since the 1890s, electricity networks and devices all around the globe have used alternating current (AC) systems, which means that the flow of electricity in the system is repeatedly changing direction.

    In Australia, it alternates 50 times a second, that is, at a frequency of 50 Hertz (in the USA, it is 60 Hertz).

    Supplying electricity at a consistent frequency is very important because appliances and electronics on the network are designed for a specific frequency/voltage input. Therefore, they can be damaged by the wrong electricity supply.

    As a rule, networks would rather supply no electricity than bad electricity. Automated controls through the electricity system will disconnect the supply if the frequency or voltage is “off-spec.”

    A technician monitors electricity levels in front of a giant screen showing the eastern German electricity transmission grid in the control centre at Neuenhagen bei Berlin, Germany, on Dec. 17, 2015. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

    South Australians will not soon forget when this happened to the entire state network in 2016. The state-wide blackout started late in the afternoon during some poor weather conditions, and thousands of people had to drive out of the city without any streetlights or traffic signals.

    There were a range of contributing causes, including gusty winds taking down some transmission lines and a lightning strike on a power station.

    After those physical causes, automated protection systems took over. Wind turbines disconnected themselves from the network. The system naturally started drawing more load from all remaining supplies, which maxed out the capacity of the interconnector to the rest of the East Coast network, which consequently disconnected.

    From that point, the shutdowns cascaded throughout the whole network. This all happened in less than a second.

    The potential for a cascading shutdown can never be entirely eliminated; automated protection systems must make decisions at a speed that prevents any human involvement.

    Nevertheless, the vulnerability of the whole system can vary, and increasing intermittent renewables contribute to decreasing the system’s stability.

    Traditional vs Renewable Generators

    Traditional generators use turbines—steam turbines, open-cycle turbines, and water turbines (hydroelectricity). This equipment is called “synchronous” because the frequency of the electricity they produce is directly linked to the speed that the shafts of the turbines rotate.

    Because these machines are large and heavy, it takes time and energy to speed them up or slow them down, which means that the frequency of the electricity cannot change too quickly. This is called “inertia.”

    As you may imagine, solar panels, having no moving parts, do not provide inertia. They match whatever frequency is already in the system; they do not help stabilise it.

    Wind turbines, though they do have large spinning components, change speed all the time merely due to wind conditions. Hence they are not designed to synchronise with the AC network. So they do not provide inertia either.

    If a system does not have inertia, then instead of gently responding to a change in load, the frequency can flail about like a cyclist getting speed wobbles (any engine can have the same problem if it doesn’t have a sufficiently heavy flywheel).

    Sheep graze in front of wind turbines on Lake George on the outskirts of Canberra, Australia, on Sep. 1, 2020. (David Gray/Getty Images)

    After the 2016 blackout, energy security gained its rightful place as the highest priority for a few glorious and brief weeks.

    A package of actions was taken by the South Australian government over the next couple of years, including the installation of a large-scale battery (following a promise by Elon Musk to construct it within 100 days or provide it for free), the building of a new diesel power station, and providing incentives for new natural gas exploration and production.

    Additionally, two synchronous condensers were installed. Synchronous condensers are large, heavy rotating shafts, similar to what is contained in a turbine, but they don’t produce electricity—they just help to stabilise the frequency of the network.

    In the subsequent years, each of these responses was vindicated. The diesel generator has been used at several critical times. It was also found that the primary value of the large-scale battery was to stabilise the network.

    Though it stores comparatively little energy, the battery responds rapidly to faults originating anywhere in the east coast network, even in Queensland. It has since been programmed to provide “virtual inertia.”

    Technology for 100 Percent Renewable Network Is Not Here Yet

    Advances in technology and network management have meant that renewables can provide more significant and larger portions of supply without unacceptably destabilising the network frequency.

    Nevertheless, it remains true that almost no system can ever afford to operate on 100 percent renewables without keeping at least a few traditional rotating generators online.

    Wind and solar generators are often switched off or “curtailed,” even when there are still some gas or coal generators active. The network operator cannot afford to turn off the synchronous generators without losing frequency control.

    In the Northern Territory, which has a stand-alone electricity network, about 60 MW of solar farms have been constructed and yet have never once been switched on because the system cannot accommodate them.

    Though the 2016 blackout triggered a suite of improvements to South Australia’s network, energy security still falls dangerously far down the list of priorities for Australian governments.

    Important actions that support energy security, such as the construction of the Kurri Kurri peaking generator in New South Wales, often face opposition from the media and politicians.

    Visitors gather to see light installations at Sydney Harbour at the start of the Vivid Sydney festival in Sydney on May 24, 2019. Vivid Sydney is an outdoor cultural festival featuring light installations and projections. (Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images)

    Several times, Australia has come dangerously close to another cascading shutdown. Incidents have occurred in smaller networks but failed to gain national attention—such as the 2019 Alice Springs shutdown, in which the central-Australian network was shut down for several hours merely due to unanticipated cloud cover.

    A recent example of a near-miss occurred in late November 2022. During a significant weather event, the main transmission line connecting South Australia to the rest of the east coast was broken near Tailem Bend.

    South Australia’s electricity network became an island. For system stability, several rotating generators had to remain online. Yet the amount of solar energy the state can generate during the day can exceed demand. The network operator needed to curtail more solar generation than they have direct control over.

    In response, the market operator began phoning behind-the-meter solar power providers and using social media to ask commercial and residential solar panel owners to switch off their panels. Thanks to these phone calls, they managed to turn off about half of South Australia’s solar power and thus prevent another shutdown.

    The system was highly vulnerable, yet the whole event barely made the evening news.

    Despite the lack of traction from that news story, the media loudly celebrated a fairly meaningless milestone a month later when the state’s renewables generation was 100 percent of demand for 10 days, which would have been impossible without exporting most of the generation to neighbouring states.

    It seems that until the lights actually turn out, the decision maker will keep their gaze firmly fixed on the renewable mirage.

    There are multiple reasons why renewables are not a simple panacea for electricity supply around the world:

    • the weather-dependence problem,

    • the energy storage problem,

    • the end-of-life replacement and recycling problem,

    • the land-area problem,

    • the materials-of-construction and scarcity problem.

    Now you can add the frequency control problem to your list.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 22:20

  • "Nothing Short Of Unsustainable": Futures Soar, Yen Tumbles After BOJ Maintains Yield Curve Control
    “Nothing Short Of Unsustainable”: Futures Soar, Yen Tumbles After BOJ Maintains Yield Curve Control

    Ahead of today’s BOJ decision the market was on edge that one month after the December YCC “huge shock” when the central bank unexpectedly widened its Yield Curve Control band from +/-0.25% to +/-0.50%, in the process sparking a historic surge in the yen and explosion in bond market volatility, that outgoing BOJ governor Kuroda would double down and tweak the BOJ’s Yield Curve Control for the second time, especially after a report by Japan’s Yomiuri leaked last week that another adjustment was imminent.

    And while most economists expected a hold by the BOJ, an unusually high number said they can’t rule out an adjustment to yield curve controls like the one that roiled markets last month, which is also why traders were betting on dramatic swings of 2% or more in favor of either the dollar or yen.

    In the end, it all ended up being one giant nothinburger, because moments ago the BOJ reported that contrary to its own leaks a week ago, it maintained the YCC as before at 0.50%, while maintaining all other aspects of monetary policy as before (JGB yield target at 0% and policy rate at -0.1%, both targets which are completely incompatible with Japan’s soaring inflation). The BOJ also stated its intention to continue large-scale bond buying and to increase them on a flexible basis as it showed its intention to double down on defense of its yield curve control program for now.

    While the YCC was the main highlight – and here there were no changes to either the YCC band or targets –  here are details on some of the other aspects of today’s BOJ decision:

    • Extends by one year fund operation to support financial institutions’ lending
    • No change to forward guidance on interest rates
    • Expands fund supply operation against pooled collateral
    • Maintains guidance that it will continue large-scale JGB buying, make nimble responses for each maturity

    Forecasts:

    • Core-core cpi median forecast for fiscal 2023 at +1.8%vs +1.6% in October
    • Core-core cpi median forecast for fiscal 2024 at +1.6% vs +1.6% in October
    • Real GDP median forecast for fiscal 2023 at +1.7% vs +1.9 % in October
    • Real GDP median forecast for fiscal 2024 at +1.1% vs +1.5% in October

    BOJ Quarterly report”

    • Prices to deviate upward in fiscal 2024
    • Uncertainty over japanese economy extremely high
    • Need to pay close attention to effects of financial, currency market movements on japan’s economy and prices
    • Price outlook skewed to upside
    • inflation expection is on the rise
    • heightening of price growth is likely to sustainable price increase involving wage hikes
    • there’s a risk global economy could deviate downward due to capital outflow from emerging markets and tightening of global financial conditions
    • prices could deviate downwardly as wage hikes won’t strengthen as expected
    • need to pay close attention to impact of elevated global inflation, rapid currency fluctuations on Japan’s prices
    • it takes time but prices will gradually rise towards inflation target on the back of rises in inflation expectations and wage rises

    The full text of the BOJ decision can be found here.

    So what happened and why did the BOJ just burn through more than $200BN in bond stabilization liquidity over the past month for nothing? Perhaps Kuroda got cold feet after seeing the observing the historic volatility in the JGB market when YCC cracked on several occasions in just the past week, and forced the BOJ to inject record amounts of cash just to keep the JGB market from imploding. Indeed, as shown in the chart below, while Kuroda insisted that December’s YCC tweak was aimed to improve market functioning, it only fueled speculation over more changes.

    Whatever the reason, the BOJ chickened out, and in the process has only accelerated the inevitable collapse of its own unsustainable policy, and as Vanda Research’s Viraj Patel writes, “bond buying is nothing short of unsustainable” and its “only a matter of time before they lose control of JGB markets….Will be an opportunity for JGB bears to go again… ’23 forecast for core CPI at 1.8% looks low JPY”

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    And while the market welcomed today’s retreat by the BOJ, with equity futures spiking…

    .. alongside bonds…

    … while the yen tumbled by over 200pips as the dovish move means the BOJ will have to print and inject trillions more to support the artificially low yield on the 10Y.

    Finally, today’s lack of action simply ensures much more volatility in the coming days as bears will aggressively hammer the 10Y sending its yield surging ever higher, which in turn will force the BOJ to intervene even more aggressively, guaranteeing much more fireworks before Kuroda steps down in April.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 22:06

  • Is New Zealand A Beta Test For Western Governments Micromanaging The Populace?
    Is New Zealand A Beta Test For Western Governments Micromanaging The Populace?

    In the wake of the covid pandemic lockdowns and mandates, many western nations and states in the US witnessed a new eye opening level of government intrusion into the daily lives of citizens.  Some, however, dealt with worse scenarios than others. 

    New Zealand in particular has popped up time and time again over the past couple of years with some of the most draconian restrictions on the public, and sadly the trend has not stopped just because the pandemic lockdowns stopped.  The island nation seems to be intent on setting the standard for authoritarian policies and government micromanagement, and a series of recent laws are driving home the reality that they do not intend to relent.  

    Flashback: In 2018, New Zealand banned all offshore oil drilling exploration in the name of instituting a “carbon neutral future”, meaning tight energy restrictions are forthcoming in NZ as the decade progresses.  

    In 2019, NZ banned all semi-automatic weapons after the Christchurch mosque shootings, punishing millions of law abiding citizens for the crimes of one man.  Video evidence of the Christchurch shootings is suspiciously illegal in NZ, and anyone caught viewing or downloading the event can be prosecuted.  The gun bans were enforced just in time for the pandemic lockdowns.     

    In 2020, the government introduced internet censorship legislation which would give them the power to selectively filter “dangerous content.”  Most of the provisions were ultimately scrapped after a public backlash, but future censorship remains a priority for the government. 

    In 2021, New Zealand Prime Minister and associate of the World Economic Forum, Jacinda Ardern, openly admitted to constructing a two tier society in which the vaccinated enjoy normal access to the economy, travel and social interaction while the unvaccinated would be deliberately choked with restrictions until they “chose” to comply and accept the mRNA jab.

    It should be noted that the Ardern and the New Zealand government were made aware on multiple occasions in 2021 by medical professionals of the risks of Myocarditis for people 30 years old and under associated with the vaccines.  They ignored the warnings and pushed forward with mass vaccination campaigns anyway, including attempts to introduce vaccine passports. 

    This was not necessarily unique, though, as many western countries made similar dismissals of vaccine concerns and tried to promote passports.  That said, New Zealand was one of the few in the west that built actual covid camps designed to incarcerate people with the virus in forced quarantine.  The camps, referred to as “compulsory quarantine facilities”, were administrated by the NZ military, leaving no doubt that these were prisons rather than resorts. 

    The Primer Minister was finally forced to scrap a large number of covid mandates last year as evidence mounted that lockdowns and masks were mostly useless in preventing the spread of the virus, and that the vaccines do not necessarily stop covid contraction and transmission.  The fact that  the vaccinated now make up the majority of covid deaths is proof enough that the vaccines do not function as officials originally promised. The process of centralizing power has not stopped, though – The tactics have simply changed. 

    NZ has introduced a multitude of oppressive laws post-covid that add up to a freedom suffocating atmosphere for the public.

    In November, the government implemented a law which forces large financial institutions to disclose climate related risks associated with their investments.  The implications are far reaching, and ostensibly this puts pressure on banks and lenders to avoid financing businesses that are a “carbon emissions risk.”  Meaning, if you want a loan from a bank and the government determines you are a “carbon polluter,” then you likely will not get the loan.  This could include anything from large manufacturers to dairy farms. 

    Speaking of farms, NZ has banned the use of caged chicken farming across the country, creating a massive egg shortage which has led to high prices (This is taking place coincidentally right after the US government culled over 50 million chickens in 2022 due to “avian flu”, also causing high prices in America).  

    Feeling stressed about this mess and want to smoke a cigarette?  Those are getting banned in NZ, too.  In an unprecedented move, the government has passed a law which blocks any person under the age of 18 as of 2023 from buying cigarettes for their entire lives.  Meaning, cigarettes will be slowly phased out as the younger generation grows older.  Are cigarettes a health risk?  Yes.  But, governments claim that costs to socialized medicine give them a rationale to control people’s personal habits.  Today it’s cigarettes; tomorrow it could be anything bureaucrats deem unhealthy regardless of actual science.  

    And that brings us to NZ’s latest authoritarian measure, the Therapeutic Products Bill, which if passed will give the government far reaching authority to manage and restrict the manufacture or sale of natural health supplements.  Want to avoid big pharma and their untested products by taking care of your own body?  You’re not allowed.  Alternatives will be erased leaving only drugs and jabs.

    This is not only the end result of the western fall into socialism, New Zealand seems to represent a test case for increasing violations of individual liberties and individual choice.  New Zealand could yield a vision of the future for many other nations should western populations respond passively.       

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 22:00

  • "Santa Monica Is Not Safe" Billboard Returns, More On The Way
    “Santa Monica Is Not Safe” Billboard Returns, More On The Way

    Authored by Jamie Joseph via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A large “Santa Monica is Not Safe” sign that first appeared in December returned to the Third Street Promenade, a popular shopping and dining area in downtown Santa Monica on Jan. 15.

    A homeless encampment in Santa Monica, Calif., on Jan. 27, 2021. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    The group of about 400 property and business owners behind the billboard—the Santa Monica Coalition—financed the display after the group’s initial funding expired and the sign was removed a few weeks ago.

    The coalition is now looking to place similar signs on 24 apartment buildings around the city, which would read, “Santa Monica is not safe—Crime, Depravity, Outdoor Mental Asylum.”

    A large sign reading “Santa Monica is Not Safe” is displayed at the Third Street Promenade shopping area in Santa Monica, Calif. (Courtesy of The Santa Monica Coalition)

    Santa Monica, a beach city in Los Angeles County, is known for its tourism, shopping, restaurants, and world-renowned pier that features a roller coaster, games, and a Ferris wheel. But some residents and business owners are sounding the alarm on an increase in crime and homelessness.

    “Restaurants, which are the main anchor tenants of Santa Monica—they’re having to let their employees go because 90 percent of residents in Santa Monica will not come to the Promenade anymore,” Santa Monica resident John Alle, with the Santa Monica Coalition, told The Epoch Times. “They’re afraid, and they feel the promenade garages are full of feces, urine, people camped out doing drugs, syringes—so they’re going to other cities.”

    Alle said it is expensive for businesses to stay afloat in the city because employees are afraid to park in the parking garages. Some business owners are trying to help by paying for their workers’ Uber drive to work, which adds up to be a pricey bill, he said.

    Last week, Alle said his car was broken into in one of the parking garages.

    “It’s a big problem,” he said.

    The coalition points to homelessness as the primary problem deterring tourists and causing businesses to suffer.

    A homeless man lays on the sidewalk across from a sign saying “Welcome to Santa Monica” in Santa Monica, Calif. (Courtesy of The Santa Monica Coalition)

    According to the 2022 point-in-time count recorded by the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority last February, Santa Monica’s had 807 homeless people, an 11 percent decrease from 907 recorded in January 2020. The count was canceled in 2021 due to the pandemic.

    Santa Monica officials said in a statement last May the reason for the decrease is that local shelter capacity was “significantly reduced” to comply with COVID-19 public health guidance. There was, however, a 1 percent increase in unsheltered homelessness, officials said.

    Though the Santa Monica Police Department has beefed up its presence in the downtown area, the coalition wants to see even more patrols to address the criminal activity they say is becoming out of control.

    Last year, Santa Monica ranked No. 6 on home safety and security research site Safewise’s “California’s 50 Safest Cities of 2022” list, next to Compton, Oakland, and San Bernardino.

    Earlier this month, a smash-and-grab robbery took place as suspects crashed a vehicle inside the city’s Louis Vuitton at 110 Santa Monica Place. The suspects reportedly got away with luxury merchandise the morning of Jan. 9, according to police reports.

    In another instance, Tiffany Hall, 49, was stabbed to death in her Santa Monica apartment in August. The suspect was arrested at a nearby Jack in the Box about an hour later.

    In November, two victims were hospitalized after being stabbed and robbed by a homeless man on Ocean Front Walk.

    “These people are suffering,” Alle said of the homeless. “We’re seeing people die in the alleys and in downtown from drug overdose, stabbings, or hypothermia.”

    But not all agree with the message. Santa Monica Councilwoman Caroline Torosis said in a statement in December that she disavows the “the hateful, classist, and quite frankly, racist rhetoric from a single business owner on the Santa Monica Promenade.”

    “This is counterproductive, dehumanizing, and dangerous,” Torosis wrote on Facebook Dec. 22. “Post-pandemic Santa Monica is working to recover and I am fully committed to supporting our businesses thrive while supporting solutions for our houseless neighbors.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 21:40

  • San Fran City Panel Urges Reparations Of $5 Million Per Black Adult
    San Fran City Panel Urges Reparations Of $5 Million Per Black Adult

    In a spectacular display of what happens when woke politics intersects utter financial illiteracy, a San Francisco government advisory committee on reparations has recommended the city pay eligible black residents age 18 years and older $5 million apiece. 

    That’s just the headline recommendation of the San Francisco African American Reparations Advisory Committee (AARAC), which was created by the city’s board of supervisors amid 2020’s nationwide racial tumult. 

    Tinisch Hollins, vice chair of San Francisco’s African American Reparations Advisory Committee (via San Francisco Reparations)

    Next on the wish list: “a comprehensive debt forgiveness program that clears all educational, personal, credit card, payday loans, etc.” The group said this measure will get blacks out of “an inescapable cycle of debt” so they can “build wealth.” 

    Rivaling the $5 million payment as an eyebrow-raiser, the committee also wants a welfare program that targets a $97,000 annual income for low-income blacks for the next 250 years. 

    That’s right: a quarter-millennium of near-six-figure per capita handouts. “Centuries of harm and destruction of black lives, black bodies and black communities should be met with centuries of repair,” AARAC chair Eric McDonnell told the San Francisco Chronicle. 

    As with every leftist agenda item, this one demonstrates a profound obliviousness to the influence of incentives on individual human action: There’s no surer way of guaranteeing an individual will stay “low-income” than promising to round them up to $97,000. 

    But wait — there’s more: Those who qualify for reparations should also receive payroll tax, business tax and property tax credits, the panel says. 

    The city should also “create structures and pathways to mitigate tax consequences for recipients of reparations funds.” Sounds like the board of supervisors will get to take a fact-finding trip to the Cayman Islands.  

    Never mind that California wasn’t a slave state, says the committee: 

    “While neither San Francisco, nor California, formally adopted the institution of chattel slavery, the values of segregation, white supremacy and systematic repression and exclusion of Black people were legally codified and enforced.”

    The Chronicle approvingly called it a “bold” plan, and said “what happens next will show whether San Francisco politicians are serious about confronting the city’s checkered past.” 

    Stephen Williams at November’s “Rally 4 Reparations” in Washington DC (Dee Dwyer for NPR)

    To its credit, the committee seems wary of a new California gold rush comprised of opportunistic reparations prospectors. To guard against a wave of black migrants cashing in, AARAC took a stab at incorporating time-in-residency prerequisites.

    Their fiscal border wall, however, has big gaps. Their list of criteria applies a “must meet at least two” approach, making it easier for new San Franciscans to sidestep the length-of-residency rules. For example, if you’re a descendant of a slave, and you were personally or a direct descendant of someone incarcerated for breaking drug laws, you’re in. 

    In a blow to the woke pillar of creative and flexible identity, AARAC shamefully stipulates that all applicants should have “identified” as “black/African American” for at least 10 years. Let’s just hope there’s no need for photo ID. 

    Financial acumen appears to be in short supply among the AARAC members. San Francisco’s budget is around $14 billion and there were about 47,000 African Americans in the 2020 census. If just 10,000 residents qualify, the $5 million payment alone would cost $50 billion. 

    Diversity isn’t a strength of the reparations committee either: All 14 members are black. However, there’s a vacant seat right now — available only to “an individual who has lived or is currently living in public housing.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 21:30

  • SHOT Show Day One: We Came Across Kamikaze Drones, Robots With Shotguns, And The "Briefcase Gun"
    SHOT Show Day One: We Came Across Kamikaze Drones, Robots With Shotguns, And The “Briefcase Gun”

    Hello from the 45th SHOT Show at the Venetian Expo and Caesars Forum in Las Vegas. Today is day one of four, and more than 2,500 exhibitors from the firearm and outdoor industry are showing off new innovative products. 

    SHOT Show is the largest firearms trade show of its kind in the world. It’s closed to the public — but we’re going to show our readers some of the exhibits that stood out. 

    We first came across AeroVironment’s Kamikaze Switchblade drone (infamous since the Biden administration is sending thousands to Ukraine).

    AeroVironment showed off a grounded-based robot with a shotgun mounted on the top. 

    Here are the different attachments for the grounded-based robot. 

    Maxim Defense had a UTV for special operation forces on display.

    The UTV has side mounts for machine guns. 

    We then came across the IXI DRONEKILLER weapon for military forces. The device is compact and lightweight. It thwarts small drone attacks by jamming radio control and GPS signals. 

    Combined Systems, Inc. showed off their handheld Tech Torch that can cut through steel rods and metal plates used for breaching buildings. 

    We came across KommandoStore’s The ‘Heat’ Rig, which holds 8 pounds of magazines tightly and securely under a business suit. The vest is modeled after rigs used by Robert De Niro in the 1995 crime movie “Heat.” 

    Executives from Lenco Armored Vehicles told us this armored vehicle is being widely adopted by US law enforcement. 

    Lenco BearCat is also designed for military use. 

    There’s a turret on top of the armored vehicle. 

    US Ordnance featured a bunch of military-grade weapons. 

    They also displayed the next generation of 40 mm grenade launchers. 

    Looking at the sights of the grenade launcher. 

    Here are a few companies with high-tech uniforms for military and security forces. 

    For all those civil disobedient Soros-funded rioters — here are the companies making flash bangs and all sorts of crowd control munitions. 

    Magpul’s so-called “briefcase gun” is on display. 

    One company figured out how to mount armor plating on an ATV. 

    Military buyers from Asia, Europe, across the Americas, and the Middle East are present at the closed-door event.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 21:20

  • Russians Become Biggest Buyers Of Booming Dubai Real Estate
    Russians Become Biggest Buyers Of Booming Dubai Real Estate

    Via The Cradle, 

    Russian nationals have become the largest buying group of real estate in Dubai since the war in Ukraine, driving sales to a new record high according to Sputnik.

    In 2022, Dubai recorded more than 86,000 sales, surpassing the previous record in 2009 with 80,000 sales, according to Dubai-based Better Homes brokerage. The estimated worth of real estate bought in 2022 is a staggering $56.6 billion, an increase of nearly 80 percent since 2021.

    Dubai skyline, Getty Images

    However, the real estate market in Dubai not only saw a boost in sales due to geopolitical events unfolding in Europe, but it also became a haven for bankers fleeing strict lockdown rules in Asia, Israeli investors that have taken advantage of the Abraham Accords, crypto investors, and hedge fund managers.

    In addition, the city’s new lenient laws have also made it easier for foreigners to invest in real estate, as well as the easing of COVID-19 restrictions much earlier than the rest of the world. Real estate is one of the city’s most critical sectors, accounting for about a third of the economy.

    Dubai’s “real estate sector has demonstrated its ability to sustain its rapid growth and enhance its attractiveness as an investment magnet,” said Sultan Butti bin Mejren, director general of the government’s Dubai Land Department.

    “The sector is set to achieve even greater growth in the future,” he added.

    The UAE is a neutral ground for Russian investors and even participates actively in negotiations between the warring countries.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    In October, the Spokesman of the Russian Presidency, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed the UAE’s integral role in a prisoner exchange between Moscow and Kiev.

    UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MbZ) informed his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin of the Ukrainian consensus on several issues.  Putin, in return, thanked MbZ during a meeting in St. Petersburg for his mediation in the prisoner exchange and his dedication to resolving regional and humanitarian issues.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 21:00

  • Ex-Intel Official Who Signed Hunter Laptop 'Disinfo' Letter Makes Shocking Admission
    Ex-Intel Official Who Signed Hunter Laptop ‘Disinfo’ Letter Makes Shocking Admission

    A former deputy director for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) admitted that he knew a “significant portion” of Hunter Biden’s laptop “had to be real,” but signed an October 2020 letter attacking the NY Post‘s bombshell report anyway, the Post reports.

    The official, Douglas Wise, was one of 51 former intelligence officials who said the Post‘s report had the appearance of a Russian disinformation campaign.

    “All of us figured that a significant portion of that content had to be real to make any Russian disinformation credible,” in a comment to The Australian. “The letter said it had the earmarks of Russian deceit and we should consider that as a possibility,” he continued.

    “It did not say Hunter Biden was a good guy, it didn’t say what he did was right and it wasn’t exculpatory, it was just a cautionary letter.”

    Except, the letter concluded that “It is high time that Russia stops interfering in our democracy,” and referenced “[o]ur view that the Russians are involved in the Hunter Biden email issue.”

    The Oct. 19 letter — whose signatories included former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, former Director of National intelligence James Clapper, and former CIA Director John Brennan — went out of its way to cast doubt on the legitimacy of The Post’s scoop, devoting five paragraphs to explaining “factors that make us suspicious of Russian involvement” while slipping in the caveat that “we do not know if the emails … are genuine or not and … we do not have evidence of Russian involvement.” -NY Post

    And as Jonathan Turley notes,

    The infamous letter from the former intel officials (including such Democratic figures like John Brennan, James Clapper, Leon Panetta and Jeremy Bash) was used by the media to assure the public that there was nothing to see in the scandal. It was the perfect deflection in giving a cooperative media cover to bury the story of how the Biden family engaged in influence peddling worth millions with foreign figures, including some with foreign intelligence connections.

    It worked beautifully. It was not until two years later that NPR, the New York Times, and other media outlets got around to telling the public the truth.

    Now some of the signatories are trying to rehabilitate themselves. It is not hard. Figures like Bash have been rewarded for their loyalty. Others like Brennan and Clapper have become regulars on CNN to continue to give their takes on intelligence.

    Wise, however, has tried to find some redeemable role in the letter. He told The Australian that “All of us figured that a significant portion of that content had to be real to make any Russian disinformation credible.” So the emails and photos showing criminal acts with prostitutes and thousands of emails on influence peddling was likely true, but that truth only made them more dangerous forms of Russian disinformation.

    It is that easy. True or not, the story was dangerous in detailing the corruption of the Biden family before the election. Done and done.

    It also means that, under this dubious logic, you can spike any true story that is embarrassing to the President or the party as presumptive disinformation.

    Indeed, Wise says that it was “no surprise” to learn that the emails that he helped spike were actually genuine.

    He is not alone. Washington Post columnist Thomas Rid wrote that  “We must treat the Hunter Biden leaks as if they were a foreign intelligence operation — even if they probably aren’t.”

    Let that sink in for a second. It does not matter if these are real emails and not Russian disinformation. They probably are real but should be treated as disinformation even though American intelligence has repeatedly rebutted that claim.  It does not even matter that the computer was seized as evidence in a criminal fraud investigation or that a Biden confidant is now giving his allegations to the FBI under threat of criminal charges if he lies to investigators.

    Yet, they still wanted the media to treat the story before the election as part of “Russian overt and covert activities that undermine US national security” as a story with “all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.”

    Keep in mind that these “experts” literally had nothing beyond a potentially damaging story against the Bidens before an election. That was all that it took for these experts to rush out their letter.

    Wise does not address that American intelligence reached the exact opposite conclusion and found no evidence — none — of Russian involvement or some foreign disinformation conspiracy.

    Wise and the other signatories did not want to wait for any facts to support their claim. They rushed out the letter to an eagerly awaiting media to spike the story before the election. Now, they are seeking plausible deniability that they were political operatives sent on a political hit job. It is as implausible as calling a presumed true story “disinformation.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 20:40

  • The Freight Market Has Bottomed
    The Freight Market Has Bottomed

    Late last March, FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller was the first to correctly call the coming freight industry recession, a byproduct of the vicious “bullwhip effect” snapback. Overnight, and a little over 9 months later, Fuller is out with another notable call, arguing that while the freight market recession may still be a factor, it is now on the backfoot as the freight market has “likely bottomed.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Below we republish Fuller’s latest observations explaining how “High-frequency truckload data suggests the freight market is stabilizing.”

    The freight market appears to be stabilizing, suggesting clear skies ahead. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

    Did the first quarter lull come early, in November and December of 2022? 

    For carriers, the first quarter is always the most difficult period in the annual freight calendar, when retailers clear their excess holiday inventory, construction takes a pause for the frigid weather and everything is gloomy and cold. The soft first quarter often follows a robust fourth quarter, in which freight companies enjoy the annual peak season and make an outsized portion of their profits. Carriers look forward to spring for some market stability and potential market accelerations. 

    Is it possible that winter came early this year? Did the freight winter start in November and now we are experiencing an early thaw? 

    Early freight data and channel checks would suggest the freight market could be stabilizing and clearer skies are ahead. 

    Over the past week, we’ve spoken with numerous freight executives who have mentioned that the first two weeks of the first quarter are shaping up better than expected, granted, expectations were incredibly low after such a weak peak. 
    Going into the quarter, executives we spoke with predicted a significant collapse in freight for the first quarter, with a seasoned veteran executive of a large trucking technology firm predicting that the first quarter would be the worst in his four-decade career. It was a fair bet considering how challenging the second half of the 2022 was for most in the freight market.

    Truckload spot rates, according to the FreightWaves National Truckload Index, hit a low of $1.67 on Nov. 17, 2022, and have since bounced back to $1.98 per mile.

    Trucking tender volumes also suggest that the direst of predictions have not played out. Tender volumes on the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), an index that tracks the volumes of load requests from shippers to carriers, show that volumes briefly dipped below 2019 and 2020 levels, but they have since broken away from this baseline. 

    If the first few weeks of the new year are an early omen, then the freight market may have bottomed in the fourth quarter and carriers can look forward to a far less volatile market in 2023. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 20:20

  • EV Rebates In Canada Are 153% Over Budget So Far
    EV Rebates In Canada Are 153% Over Budget So Far

    Federal electric vehicle rebates in Canada went 153% over their originally intended budgets, a new report out last week unveiled.

    Ottawa had shelled out $759 million on EV rebates by March of last year, according to a report by True North. The “unprecedented” number of people claiming the rebates pushed Canada’s government well over its allocated spending. 

    Analysts in the Audit Of Incentives For Zero Emission Vehicles Program said: “The uptake of the program was higher than expected and funding was an ongoing concern.”

    “The program’s main risk is not having sufficient funding to meet the demand,” they continued.

    In Canada, beginning in 2019, anyone who bought an EV below the price of $45,000 is allowed to claim a rebate of up to $5,000. The government then moved that threshold up to $70,000. 

    Liberals first claimed the program would cost $300 million, True North reported.

    But an audit of the spending found far different results: “The program exhausted its original funding of $300 million and received two subsequent funding top-ups of $287 million and $172 million to continue the program until March 31, 2022 as planned.”

    136,940 buyers in total have claimed rebates and Canada has extended the budget for the program to $1.6 billion until March 2025. The country is trying to fulfill environment minister Steven Guilbeault’s plan to make all vehicles sold by 2035 electric or hybrid.

    The cost for such a program amounts to $100 billion a new analysis found. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 20:00

  • Rethinking Japan
    Rethinking Japan

    By Russell Clark of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets substack

    I first went to Japan in 1991 as a 17 year old high school exchange student. I went on to do a degree in Asian Studies (and Economics), and a university exchange to Japan in 1994. When I start working in finance in 2000, one of the things that struck me was how different the Japanese experience was to elsewhere. We were taught that equities always outperform bonds, that large fiscal deficits would imply a weak currency, and inflation was inevitable part of life. When I pointed out that this did not hold in Japan, I was usually told to either shut up, or that Japan was special, so could be ignored. This always struck me as a odd way to do treat the second largest economy in the world, and the largest holder of foreign exchange reserves. For long time readers, you should be aware of my “Japan as the Saudi Arabia of savings” theory, which explained Japanese experience from 1994 up to 2016 very well, but not so well since. I have been contemplating a different way of thinking about Japan.

    To follow this analysis, you are going to have to accept a few basic assumptions. First of all is that the US has a very high level of influence on Japanese policy making. This leads to unusually close relationship both economically and politically. One of the distinct features of this is that not only is Japan the largest owners of treasuries, almost uniquely, it ONLY holds US Treasuries as foreign reserves.

    This is very different to everywhere else in the world, even countries with very similar economic and political arrangements, like South Korea.

    The point of this is to show that Japanese policymakers hew very closely to US policy. With this observation, perhaps we can look at the Japanese economic experience of the last 40 year or so through an American political lens and see if it makes sense. One of the first economic problems that the US faced after World War II was that the US economy was increasingly uncompetitive against its European and Japanese peers. The most visible sign of this was the falling gold reserves of the US.

    It is very easy to see the Japanese agreeing a deal to allow the Yen to appreciate, and to go along with the idea of holding treasuries instead of gold as foreign reserves. This led to the first mega trade with Japan – long yen from 1970 to 1990. Since 1990, it has been a wash trade.

    In 1980, Ronald Reagan came to power, and we saw politics in the US shift to pro-capital away from pro-labour. One of the key tenets of pro-capital policies is the freedom to buy from wherever is cheapest, with no regard of any political cost. That is, if Japan was cheaper at making cars, then why not buy Japanese cars, for example, but broadly speaking the ideals were of freedom and efficiency were pursued.

    Allowing Japanese car makers to compete rigorously with US auto makers also had a secondary benefit. US union power was disproportionally strong in auto makers. By opening up this sector to foreign competition, it should help reduce the power and influence of the unions in the private sector. That is Japan was used as the hammer to break US union power. That is to reduce the political power of pro-labour proponents.

    The boom in Japanese manufacturing also led Japan to overtake the US semiconductor industry in the 1980s. As late as 2010, Japan was still a similar size to the US.

    As Japanese semiconductor market is dominated by Japanese semiconductor makers, this meant in the late 1980s, Japan producers also had the largest market share. And this is where Japanese problems began. If Japan maintained its technological lead over the US, it would likely face increasing political pressure from the US. It would need to either succumb, or return to the disastrous policies of the 1930s and begin to compete with the US.

    Asian sales ex-China has been larger than the US for many years, although US companies have much larger market share outside of Japan, which is probably why even though Asia ex China sales are larger than the US, US market share from above totals more than Japan, Korea and Taiwan combined. It should be remembered that not only are Korea and Taiwan strong military allies of the US, both are former colonies of Japan, and Japanese engineers were instrumental in the setting up of their semiconductor industries. It should be pointed out that neither Korea or Taiwan have an equivalent to Tokyo Electron (semiconductor equipment maker).

    In essence, in late 1980s Japan was beginning to look like a strategic competitor to the US, and choose stagnation, and a peaceful life, rather than rupture with the US. I think this makes sense to me. Turning Japan from a strategic competitor back into a natural ally of the US is good statecraft, and given the disaster that World War II was for Japan, an understandable decision. Using this line of thought, Abenomics did indeed mark a political change in Japan, away from managed decline to something else. Where exactly, will be subject of another post.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 19:40

  • Jes Staley 'Personally Observed' Sexual Abuse By Epstein, Victim Claims
    Jes Staley ‘Personally Observed’ Sexual Abuse By Epstein, Victim Claims

    A woman suing JPMorgan for facilitating Jeffery Epstein’s abuse says that former Barclays CEO Jes Staley “personally observed” the abuse while he was serving as JPM’s head of private wealth.

    The woman, Jane Doe 1, made the new allegations in an amended complaint filed late Friday in Manhattan federal court. In it, she claims that Staley was a frequent visitor to Epstein’s properties – including his New York townhouse ‘massage room,’ a ‘stash house’ apartment on Manhattan’s Upper East Side, and of course, pedo island in the US Virgin Islands.

    While hanging out at Epstein’s properties, the former JPMorgan exec “personally observed the sexual abuse of young women, including Jane Doe 1.”

    “As a result of Staley’s direct and actual knowledge of Epstein’s sex-trafficking venture, JP Morgan had direct and actual knowledge of Epstein’s sex-trafficking venture,” reads the amended complaint.

    As Bloomberg notes;

    The new allegations seek to bolster the argument that JPMorgan was aware of Epstein’s conduct but nonetheless turned a blind eye. The bank has moved to dismiss the suit in part by arguing that it fails to show the bank knew about Epstein’s abuse.

    Staley left JPMorgan in 2013 and joined Barclays Plc as chief executive officer a few years later. He stepped down from that role in 2021 following a UK regulatory probe into his relationship with Epstein.

    Separate lawsuits against JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank allege that the banks knowingly benefited and received things of value for facilitating and supporting Epstein’s sex-trafficking network. Both banks have sought dismissal of the claims, and have argued that in addition to having no knowledge of Epstein’s conduct, the events in question happened between 1998-2013, and are barred by the statute of limitations.

    That said, the plaintiffs in the case – a class action lawsuit, are suing under New York’s Adult Survivors Act, which temporarily lifts that statute of limitations. The banks claim it doesn’t apply to them.

    Staley is also mentioned in a lawsuit brought by the US Virgin Islands against the bank, and notes that Epstein had an ‘extensive relationship’ with Staley. In an amended complaint of its own, the USVI claims that “Epstein introduced Staley to Glenn Dubin,” the owner of Highbridge Capital Management.

    Epstein reportedly received a $15 million fee in 2004 after JPMorgan bought control of Highbridge.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 19:20

  • CNN Admits Ukraine War Is A 'Weapons Lab' For Western Arms
    CNN Admits Ukraine War Is A ‘Weapons Lab’ For Western Arms

    Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

    Ukraine has turned into a “lab” for Western arms as the war has given the US and its allies an opportunity to see how their weapons fare in a conflict with a major military power like Russia, CNN reported on Monday.

    A source familiar with Western intelligence on the war told CNN that Ukraine is “absolutely a weapons lab in every sense because none of this equipment has ever actually been used in a war between two industrially developed nations.” The source described it as “real-world battle testing.”

    File image: EPA/EFE

    Back in July, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov offered his country as a “testing ground” for Western arms makers. “We are interested in testing modern systems in the fight against the enemy and we are inviting arms manufacturers to test the new products here,” he said.

    Reznikov got his wish as the US, and its allies have significantly stepped up military aid since then, and the war has escalated as Russia began large-scale strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure in October. Russia’s success in its use of cheap kamikaze drones in the infrastructure attacks has influenced plans for Western arms makers.

    The British arms maker BAE Systems has announced that it’s developing a new armored vehicle with added protection to defend it from kamikaze drone attacks from above.

    Multiple intelligence and military officials told CNN that making cheap single-use drones has become a priority of many defense contractors.

    The CNN report said that for the US military, the war has become an “incredible source of data on the utility of its own systems.” For example, the US has seen that its HIMARS rocket launch system has been effective against Russian forces, while the M777 howitzer has become less effective and less accurate over time.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The war in Ukraine has also created a demand for weapons that were beginning to become obsolete, such as the Stinger shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles. Raytheon stopped producing Stingers for years but now has been asked by the Pentagon to ramp up production as thousands have been shipped to Ukraine.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 19:00

  • Swiss MP At Davos: Change Living Environments To Force The Public To Follow Climate Goals
    Swiss MP At Davos: Change Living Environments To Force The Public To Follow Climate Goals

    The World Economic Forum’s annual meetings in Davos have become a prominent window into the minds of globalists, with admissions every year of some of the most bizarre and disturbing political objectives imaginable.  Davos is where we first heard founder Klaus Schwab call for the “Great Reset,” a global event which WEF members say will change the very fabric of civilization and herald a new world order.

    Davos is also where we first heard of the globalist concept of “smart cities” and the “shared economy” in which you will “own nothing, have no privacy” and be happy about it by the year 2030. 

    Though the 2023 meeting has just started, it is not disappointing so far in terms of revelations of technocracy.  Case in point:  Swiss MP Bastien Girod painted a vision of the near future in which governments change the nature of how population is organized.  The grand idea?  To focus people into tightly controlled cities designed around carbon controls and where cars are illegal for individuals to own.  And, to establish penalties for businesses that do not conform to bureaucratic climate change policies.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The exploitation of global warming hysteria despite all scientific evidence to the contrary remains the primary topic and tool of globalism.  Climate organizations claim that carbon emissions substantially increased for the past eight years yet global temperatures have not increased in same period according to the latest NOAA data.  Not only that, but global temps have only risen less than 1 degree C in the past 100 years.  There is still no concrete evidence that carbon emissions have a causation relationship with changes in global temperatures.  Yet, this false threat is the rallying cry of the Davos elite and their continuing demands for freedom crushing centralization.       

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 18:40

  • Jim Grant Warns "Japan Is Perhaps The Most Important Risk In The World"
    Jim Grant Warns “Japan Is Perhaps The Most Important Risk In The World”

    Authored by Christoph Gisiger via TheMarket.ch,

    Speculation is mounting that the Bank of Japan is losing control of the bond market. Jim Grant, editor of «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», believes this could trigger a shock to the global financial system. He also explains why he expects further surges in inflation and why gold should be part of your portfolio.

    The news caught markets off guard: On December 20th, the Bank of Japan surprisingly extended the target range for the yield on ten-year government bonds to plus/minus 0.5%. A move that not a single economist had expected.

    This week, the Bank of Japan could announce a major policy shift amid rising government bond yields and a strengthening yen. Although barely a month has passed since the BoJ’s last meeting, the bond market is already testing the new upper limit of the yield curve control regime.

    «To us, Japanese interest rate policy resembles the Berlin Wall of the late Cold War era, a stale anachronism that must sooner or later fall,» says Jim Grant. For the editor of the iconic investment bulletin «Grants’ Interest Rate Observer,» recent developments in Japan pose an underestimated risk to global financial markets. Not least because virtually no one is talking about it.

    In an in-depth interview with The Market NZZ, which has been slightly edited for clarity, Mr. Grant explains what it means for financial markets if the Bank of Japan is forced to scrap its yield curve control policy. But first, he says why he doesn’t believe inflation will end soon, why bonds may be at the start of a long bear market, and why he believes gold is the best choice as a store of value.

    «If the past is prologue and if the great bond bull market is over, then on form, we are looking at what could be a very prolonged and perhaps gradual move higher in interest rates»: Jim Grant.

    What do you observe when you look at the financial world today?

    Well, it’s always the same, and – here’s the catch – it’s always a little different. The trick is to identify the unique or unusual feature of a familiar cycle. In this regard, it helps to know a little bit of financial history, and to just that extent it helps to be a little old. But what is not helpful is to mistake the past for a certain roadmap to the future.

    What are currently the most important developments from a historical perspective?

    The essential driver of so much of today’s news are the consequences of the monetary regime in place worldwide. That regime has given us artificially low, indeed suppressed rates of interest, and it has given us the consequences of those false rates which include rampant misallocation of capital and great gusts of speculation; some of which are a lot of fun, and some of which are quite lucrative to the clever people who can get in on them.

    However, in the wake of the surge in inflation last year, interest rates have risen rapidly. Now inflation seems to be subsiding. Was the rise in prices only temporary after all?

    Plainly, the rate of change has subsided, but what is often ignored is the level of inflation. The rate of change is everyone’s preoccupation, but the loss in purchasing power is never recovered. This is the nature of a fiat currency regime. Way back under the gold standard, prices would rise on average and they would fall on average, but at the end of very long cycles, they would be unchanged. In contrast, a fiat currency regime is characterized by the fact that prices ratchet ever higher and never are allowed to correct to the downside. So what we have is a very elevated level of average prices and a somewhat lower rate of rise in these prices.

    Then again, the tension in the markets has eased somewhat recently. Stocks have made a surprisingly good start to the new year.

    Certainly, the slowing rate of the rise in inflation is to be celebrated. It’s nice, but we are still left with a system that is inherently inflationary. Here in the United States, it’s a system given to very free and loose public spending, given to great entitlements for one and all, and it’s a system that has flourished in recent years with very low, suppressed rates of interest. To me, that’s the essence of an inflation generating system: Politically, inflation is kind of something for nothing, and that seems to be part of the political zeitgeist. That’s why I would be a little bit guarded in pronouncing the end of this inflationary episode.

    Why do you think the issue of inflation could keep us on the edge for some time?

    Inflation in such a system resembles one of these inextinguishable long-burning underground coal mine fires. I’m not sure if you have them in Switzerland, but in Pennsylvania for example there has been such a fire that’s been going on for around fifty years. You don’t always see it, but it flares to the surface from time to time. It’s always there, it’s always latent, leaking smoke, warming the soles of your shoes. To me, that is a good analogy for inflation in a free spending and paper currency issuing social democracy.

    So are we at a fundamental inflection point heading into a new cycle, characterized by higher inflation and rising interest rates?

    Yes, and I say that with well deserved humility because «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer» was calling the end of the secular bull bond market at least a decade before it ended. Looking back, the last great secular bond bear market began in the spring of 1946 in the US and most of the world. It ended in the fall 1981, 35 years later. What followed, of course, was the still greater and more prolonged bond bull market. It began in October 1981 and perhaps ended in 2020 when the ten-year treasury yield got down to 0.5%.

    What kind of scenario could now be in store?

    If the past is prologue and if the great bond bull market is over, then on form, we are looking at what could be a very prolonged and perhaps gradual move higher in interest rates. We ought to remember that the first ten years of the last bond bear market were characterized by a very gradual increase. It was hardly noticeable. Yields on long-term bonds rose by about ten basis points a year. The treasury yield started off at 2.25% in 1946, and then in 1956 it was at around 3.25%. So with all these qualifications: Yes, I think the bond bull market is over and a bond bear market has begun.

    Why do bond market cycles last such a long time?

    I’m a little weary of saying that the bond market does these things as opposed to that it has done them in the past. But it has exhibited that tendency. At the risk of being pathetic, I would say that since at least the middle of the 19th century bonds have exhibited the tendency to move up and down in yield over the course of decades or generations. I’m not sure anyone can fully explain why. And, because we can’t explain it, we can’t be dogmatic about it continuing in just this way. But again, if past is prologue, we are in for a very long phase or cycle of rising interest rates.

    However, supply chain problems seem to be largely resolved; in the semiconductor industry, for example, there is already overcapacity and full inventories. What are the drivers of inflation in the next few years?

    One of the things I’ve learned in the fifty years in this business is to be a little bit less doctrinaire about such things as the cause of inflation. Milton Friedman famously said it’s «always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon». At some trivial level, that is undeniable because inflation involves money. Then again, you could also argue that it cannot be a monetary phenomenon because the purchasing power of money by definition is a casualty of inflation. As to the cause of inflation, there is a whole new school now arguing that it is a fiscal phenomenon. I think there is something to that, as there is something to the Friedmanite view. There is something to the idea that it is a political phenomenon, it’s a characteristic of politically weak societies.

    But the Federal Reserve assures us that it can bring inflation under control.

    I think that we have not seen the last of this inflationary outburst. But one needs to be quite humble in the face of something that very few central bankers anticipated or even could have imagined. It wasn’t just that the Fed didn’t predict it, but when the Fed saw it, when it saw the whites of inflation’s eyes, it still couldn’t believe it and continued with its QE program until the end of March 2022.

    It looks like markets are now gradually shifting their focus to the threat of recession. Does Fed Chair Jerome Powell have the stamina to «get the job done» in curbing inflation, as he says?

    Hardly a day passes without one regional Fed president or another declaring that the FOMC will most definitely push the funds rate to 5% or higher and hold it there for six months or a year or maybe two. What I object to these pronouncements is the unseemly certitude that they convey. The Fed seems so sure of itself. It was so sure of itself when it was predicting just as confident in 2021 that a 10 basis-point funds rate was a lock through 2023. Their cocksureness does not become them. The future is a closed book, not an open book. Especially, it is a closed book to people who mobilize pseudo-scientific mathematical models of the workings of the financial economy because they really don’t understand it.

    Usually, the Fed raises interest rates until there is an «accident» somewhere in the financial system or the economy. Is that going to be the case this time as well?

    The Fed is not a believer in the likelihood of accidents. I’m not sure that it understands the risks its previous QE regime has introduced into the financial system, specifically the heavy leverage in Corporate America, and still more particularly the leverage in private equity for example. Of course, a lot of speculation has been wrung out of the system already, certainly in cryptocurrencies, in SPACs and such things.

    Where could such an accident occur?

    I think Japan is perhaps the most important risk in the world, not least because it is among the least discussed risks, certainly in the Western press. Mostly, it’s very much an afterthought. The risk is this: Every business day, the Bank of Japan is spending tens of billions of dollars worth of yen to enforce governor Kuroda’s yield curve interest rates suppression program. To put this into perspective: In the UK, when the little crisis over liability driven pension investing in late September happened, the Bank of England spent around $5 billion. The BoJ does that before breakfast.

    The Bank of Japan already introduced its policy of yield curve control in the fall of 2016 by keeping the yield on ten-year government bonds within a target range through direct interventions in the bond market. Why should it change its monetary policy now?

    Governor Kuroda, who’s term is up on April 8, insists that yield curve control is here to stay. But to us, Japanese interest rate policy resembles the Berlin Wall of the late Cold War era, a stale anachronism that must sooner or later fall.

    And why specifically now?

    What’s different is that the market is on to something. I say that because the Bank of Japan has already lifted the allowable ceiling on ten-year JGB yields to 0.5% from 0.25% at the end of last year. Kuroda said it was nothing more than a means to the end of ensuring the success and stability of a permanent regime of yield suppression. But the market is like a very ill-behaved dog at the end of a leash. It’s wheezing and frothing, and the Bank of Japan is yanking ever harder and tighter to control this beast.

    Why do you think this beast will finally break free?

    Kuroda stated that the Bank of Japan is not going to stop until there is inflation. Well, Tokyo’s consumer prices which precede the national CPI rose to 4% in December versus expectations of 3.8%. What’s more, Uniqlo and other corporate leaders are out announcing that they are raising wages significantly. You will find other stories to this effect, signs and precursors of a change. Some former governors of the Bank of Japan are now venting their views that this has gone far enough and the consequences will be devastating. So I think this is a huge risk just offstage and the world has to pay closer attention to it.

    What’s the risk if the Bank of Japan gives up control of the yield curve?

    What makes it a risk for everybody, whether you are Swiss, American, German or Japanese, are two things. First of all, suppressed rates prompt leveraged individual and corporate balance sheets which at the shock of a rise in interest rates will get into trouble. There are troubles buried in the financial statements of Japanese companies that have borrowed too much. Sure, Japanese businesses are not as inclined as, say, American ones to borrow excessively, but there are also risks regarding a lot of bank saving schemes or structured products in Japan. For instance, you get a yield of 0.75% for five years, but in the fine print there is some caveat that if rates go above a certain level then the duration of this product extends to ten years. I’m making these numbers up, but it’s essentially what the risk is.

    And what is the second risk?

    The Japanese are a frisky nation. They have an immense amount of net savings, and some $3 trillion of Japanese assets are invested in non-Japanese markets, of which half are domiciled in the United States. In other words, the Japanese, the proverbial Mrs. Watanabe, search the world for yield opportunities. According to Bloomberg, expressed as a percentage of the GDP of the country in which they are invested, Japanese stock and bond holdings break down to 7.3% of America, 7.5% of France, 8.3% of Australia and 9.5% of the Netherlands. What is going to happen if suddenly Japanese yen denominated rates become rather attractive? Well, a lot of this money may be repatriated and the result of that repatriation will be a rise in volatility in markets we can’t really identify now. So the risk of a volatility upsurge is considerable. I think the time is getting ripe for a big change in Japanese rates structure and therefore in interest rates and in the risk presented to bond holders worldwide.

    What is your advice to investors in this environment?

    Having just mocked the central banks for their pretending to know what they can’t know, I’m in a very compromised position if I were to say what is going to happen. But allow me to suggest that I’m somewhat of a broken record on gold. I’m going to continue with this broken record and observe that people have not yet come to terms with the essential inherent weaknesses of the monetary system that has been in place since 1971. We have all gotten used to it. I mean, you have to be a person of a certain age, indeed you have to be as old as I am, to really recall the debates surrounding the abandonment of Bretton Woods. People have grown up with the idea that money is what they print, and if the Japanese can print $50 billion a day with which to suppress interest rates, that doesn’t shock many people. But I think such shocks do lay ahead.

    And gold can help protect a portfolio against such shocks?

    I think that the strains that are already obvious will become more so. People will be looking around not for a better brand of paper or digital money, but rather for the real McCoy. In every issue of «Grant’s» we have something to say about a stock, so I don’t want to sound too much of a nutcase. We do live in the real world. But when I look at the very big picture, the money the central banks produce in such profusion is unsound. It may not be now, but in time, people will look around for an alternative and that alternative may just be gold – the thing that has been more or less a shadow cast by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all the other crypto currencies.

    Against this background, how do you assess the general outlook for the stock market?

    The market has come down from extremely overvalued to nearly expensive, and my observation is that an extremely overvalued market does not normally bottom out at nearly expensive. So I’m not sure that’s the end of things. I don’t find a whole lot of compelling values in the stock market. Sometimes, one has great conviction, but not now with regard to stocks for me.

    Are there any exceptions that appear attractive from a value perspective?

    In one of our recent issues, we had a story on Transocean. The stock had a little move, it’s gone up from $2.50 to $5 or something in that order, but we’re still bullish. It’s a high-tech story. The technology happens to pertain to fossil fuels, therefore it’s beyond the pale for «properly sensitive fiduciaries» to put it this way. But it is a very impressive business which happens to have the flaw of a highly leveraged balance sheet. So there is considerable risk, but I think the risk is less compelling now than the reward. So if you ask about something to be bullish on, I would suggest Transocean.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 01/17/2023 – 18:20

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Jan 17

Today’s News 17th January 2023

  • Escobar: All Quiet (Panic) On The Western Front
    Escobar: All Quiet (Panic) On The Western Front

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    Shadows are falling / And I’ve been here all day / It’s too hot to sleep / And time is running away / Feel like my soul / has turned into steel /I’ve still got the scars / That the sun didn’t heal / There’s not even room enough / To be anywhere / Lord it’s not dark yet, / but it’s getting there

    Bob Dylan, Not Dark Yet

    Lights! Action! Reset!

    The World Economic Forum (WEF)’s Davos Freak Show is back in business on Monday.

    The mainstream media of the collective West, in unison, will be spinning non-stop, for a week, all the “news” that are fit to print to extol new declinations of The Great Reset, re-baptized The Great Narrative, but actually framed as a benign offer by “stakeholder capitalism”. These are the main planks of the shady platform of a shady NGO registered in Cologny, a tony Geneva suburb.

    The list of Davos attendees was duly leaked. Proverbially, it’s an Anglo-American Exceptionalist fun fest, complete with intel honchos such as the US Director of National Intelligence, Avril “Madam Torture” Haines; the head of MI6 Richard Moore; and FBI director Christopher Wray.

    Remixed Diderot and D’Alembert Encyclopedias could be written about the Davos pathology – where a hefty list of multibillionaires, heads of state and corporate darlings (owned by BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street and co.) “engage” in selling Demented Dystopia packages to the unsuspecting masses.

    But let’s cut to the chase and focus on a few panels next week – which could easily be mistaken for Straight to Hell sessions.

    The Tuesday, January 17 list is particularly engaging. It features a “De-Globalization or Re-Globalization?” panel with speakers Ian Bremmer, Adam Tooze, Niall Ferguson, Péter Szijjártó and Ngaire Woods. Three Atlanticists/Exceptionalists stand out, especially the ultra-toxic Ferguson.

    After “In Defense of Europe”, featuring a bunch of nullities including Poland’s Andrjez Duda, attendees will be greeted with a Special Season in Hell (sorry, Rimbaud) featuring none other than EC dominatrix Ursula von der Leyen, known by a vast majority of Germans as Ursula von der Leichen (“Ursula of Cadavers”) in a tag team with WEF mastermind, Third Reich emulator Klaus “Nosferatu” Schwab.

    Rumors are that Lucifer, in his privileged underground abode, is green with envy.

    There’s also “Ukraine: What Next?” with another bunch of nullities, and “War in Europe: Year 2” featuring Moldova woke chick Maia Sandu and Finnish party girl Sanna Marin.

    In the War Criminal section, pride of place goes to “A Conversation with Henry Kissinger: Historical Perspectives on War”, where Dr. K. will sell all his trademark Divide and Rule permutations. Added sulphur will be provided by Thucydides strangler Graham Allison.

    In his Special Address, “Liver Sausage” Chancellor Olaf Scholz will be side by side with Nosferatu, hoping he won’t be – literally – grilled.

    Then, on Wednesday, January 18, comes the apotheosis: “Restoring Security and Peace” with speakers Fareed Zakaria – the US establishment’s pet brown man; NATO’s Jens “War is Peace” Stoltenberg; Andrzej Duda – again; and Canadian warmonger Chrystia Freeland – widely rumored to become the next NATO Secretary-General.

    And it gets juicier: the coke comedian posing as warlord may join via zoom from Kiev.

    The notion that this panel is entitled to emit judgments about “peace” deserves nothing less than its own Nobel Peace Prize.

    How to monetize the whole world

    Cynics of all persuasions may be excused for lamenting Mr. Zircon – currently on oceanic patrol encompassing the Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and of course “Mare Nostrum” Mediterranean – won’t be presenting his business card at Davos.

    Analyst Peter Koenig has developed a convincing thesis that the WEF, the WHO and NATO may be running some sort of sophisticated death cult. The Great Reset does mingle merrily with NATO’s agenda as agent provocateur, financer and weaponizer of the proxy Empire vs. Russia war in black hole Ukraine. NAKO – an acronym for North Atlantic Killing Organization – would be more appropriate in this case.

    As Koenig summarizes it, “NATO enters any territory where the ‘conventional’ media lie-machine, and social engineering are failing or not completing their people-ordaining goals fast enough.”

    In parallel, very few people are aware that on June 13, 2019 in New York, a secret deal was clinched between the UN, the WEF, an array of oligarch-weaponized NGOs – with the WHO in the front line – and last but not least, the world’s top corporations, which are all owned by an interlinked maze with Vanguard and BlackRock at the center.

    The practical result of the deal is the UN Agenda 2030.

    Virtually every government in the NATOstan area and the “Western Hemisphere” (US establishment definition) has been hijacked by Agenda 2030 – which translates, essentially, as hoarding, privatizing and financializing all the earth’s assets, under the pretext of “protecting” them.

    Translation: the marketization and monetization of the entire natural world (see, for instance, here, here and here.)

    Davos superstar shills such as insufferable bore Niall Ferguson are just well rewarded vassals: western intellectuals of the Harvard, Yale and Princeton mould that would never dare bite the hand that feeds them.

    Ferguson just wrote a column on Bloomberg titled “All is Not Quiet on the Eastern Front” – basically to peddle the risk of WWIII, on behalf of his masters, blaming of course “China as the arsenal of autocracy”.

    Among serial high-handed inanities, this one stands out. Ferguson writes, “There are two obvious problems with US strategy (…) The first is that if algorithmic weapons systems are the equivalent of tactical nuclear weapons, Putin may eventually be driven to using the latter, as he clearly lacks the former.”

    Cluelessness here is a euphemism. Ferguson clearly has no idea “algorithmic weapons” mean; if he’s referring to electronic warfare, the US may have been able to maintain superiority for a while in Ukraine, but that’s over.

    Well, that’s typical Ferguson – who wrote a whole Rothschild hagiography just like his column, drinking from the Rothschild archives that appeared to have been sanitized as he knows next to nothing meaningful about their history.

    Ferguson has “deduced” that Russia is weak and China is strong. Nonsense. Both are strong – and Russia is more advanced technologically than China in their advanced offensive and defensive missile development, and can beat the US in a nuclear war as Russian air space is sealed by layered defenses such as the S-400 all the way to the already tested S-500s and designed S-600s.

    As far as semiconductor chips, the advantage that Taiwan has in chip manufacture is in mass production of the most advanced chips; but China and Russia can fabricate the chips necessary for military use, though not engage in mass commercial production. The US has an important advantage here commercially with Taiwan, but that’s not a military advantage.

    Ferguson gives away his game when he carps about the need to “deter a nascent Axis-like combination of Russia, Iran and China from risking simultaneous conflict in three theaters: Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Far East.”

    Here we have trademark Atlanticist demonization of the top three vectors of Eurasia integration mixed with a toxic cocktail of ignorance and arrogance: it’s NATO that is stoking “conflict” in Eastern Europe; and it’s the Empire that is being expelled from the “Far East” (oh, that’s so colonial) and soon from the Middle East (actually West Asia).

    An AMGOT tale

    Nobody with an IQ over room temperature will expect Davos next week to discuss any aspect of the NATO vs. Eurasia existential war seriously – not to mention propose diplomacy. So I’ll leave you with yet another typical tawdry story about how the Empire – who rules over Davos – deals in practice with its vassals.

    While in Sicily earlier this year I learned that an ultra high-value Pentagon asset had landed in Rome, in haste, as part of an unscheduled visit. A few days later the reason for the visit was printed in La Repubblica, one of the papers of the toxic Agnelli clan.

    That was a Mafia scam: a face-to-face “suggestion” for the Meloni government to imperatively provide Kiev, as soon as possible, with the costly anti-Samp-T missile system, developed by an European consortium, Eurosam, uniting MBDA Italy, MBDA France and Thales.

    Italy possesses only 5 batteries of this system, not exactly brilliant against ballistic missiles but efficient against cruise missiles.

    National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan had already called Palazzo Chigi to announce the “offer you can’t refuse”. Apparently that was not enough, thus the hasty envoy trip. Rome will have to toe the line. Or else. After all, never forget the terminology employed by US generals to designate Sicily, and Italy as a whole: AMGOT.

    American government occupied territory.

    Have fun with the Davos freak show.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 23:50

  • Visualizing The Most Valuable Brands From 2000–2022
    Visualizing The Most Valuable Brands From 2000–2022

    How much money is a brand truly worth?

    As Visual Capitalist’s Omri Wallach details below, for some companies, a brand is something that helps slightly boost customer engagement and sales. But for others, including some of the largest companies in the world, a strong brand is one of their most valuable assets.

    this animated graphic by James Eagle uses the annual brand rankings from Interbrand to track the world’s most valuable brands from 2000 to 2022.

    Measuring Brand Value

    One of the difficulties of brand valuation is its subjectivity.

    In accounting, the value of a brand is sometimes represented as an intangible asset called goodwill on the balance sheet. That’s because the brand power associated with a company (i.e. brand recognition, brand loyalty, customer base, reputation, etc.) often makes a company more valuable than just the sum of its tangible assets like land, buildings, or product inventory.

    This works for accounting purposes but is still a rough estimation, and doesn’t precisely quantify a brand’s true value.

    For Interbrand’s studies, a consistent formula for brand strength was utilized which is based on a company’s financial forecast, brand role, and brand strength. It uses estimates of the present value of earnings a brand is forecasted to generate in the future.

    The Top 10 Most Valuable Brands Since 2000

    When the 2000s started, the internet was top-of-mind in terms of both markets and customer perception. The Dotcom bubble was driving the world’s largest companies, and brand value at the time reflected tech’s popularity:

    Half of the top 10 most valuable brands at the time were in tech or telecom, including Microsoft, IBM, and Nokia.

    Others were classic American brands and companies at the top of their fields, including Coca-Cola, General Electric, Ford, and McDonald’s.

    But over the next 20 years, much of the old guard was replaced by new and rising brands. By 2022, only three of the top 10 most valuable brands from 2000 remained at the top:

    Apple’s brand is now worth an estimated $482 billion, even though the company didn’t even crack the top 10 list back in the year 2000.

    In fact, four of the top five brands on the 2022 list are directly in tech, and even Amazon (#3) is often considered a tech giant. Not surprisingly, brand value in the top 10 has grown almost across the board, though Coca-Cola is a notable exception, dropping $15 billion in estimated brand value over 22 years.

    How will the most valuable brands continue to evolve over the coming decades?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 23:15

  • Why TikTok Must Be Banned In US And Free World
    Why TikTok Must Be Banned In US And Free World

    Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

    The United States recently banned TikTok from all federal government devices over growing security concerns. That is a good start.

    TikTok, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned at the beginning of December, is controlled by the Chinese government, which is a national security concern.

    TikTok, a video-sharing app owned by Chinese company ByteDance, has, according to TikTok’s own estimates, 1 billion users worldwide. In 2021, TikTok had approximately 87 million users in the US, according to Statista. Disturbingly, a recent study found that 10% of US adults get their news from the Chinese app, up from 3% in 2020.

    Wray said that China’s government can control the app’s recommendation algorithm, “which allows them to manipulate content, and if they want to, to use it for influence operations.”

    “All of these things are in the hands of a government that doesn’t share our values, and that has a mission that’s very much at odds with what’s in the best interests of the United States. That should concern us,” Wray said in a speech at the University of Michigan.

    Wray’s comments echoed those he made at the “Worldwide Threats to the Homeland” hearing held at the House of Representatives Homeland Security Committee on November 15.

    “We do have national security concerns at least from the FBI’s end about TikTok,” Wray stated.

    “They include the possibility that the Chinese government could use it to control data collection on millions of users. Or control the recommendation algorithm, which could be used for influence operations if they so chose. Or to control software on millions of devices, which gives it opportunity to potentially technically compromise personal devices.”

    Wray’s concerns are not new — actually, they come a bit late. In 2020, President Donald J. Trump, citing similar security concerns, tried to ban the app in the US, in addition to sanctioning the company, but several federal judges ruled against both sanctions and a ban, blocking his attempts. One judge ruled that the ban failed “to adequately consider an obvious and reasonable alternative before banning TikTok” and that the ban was “arbitrary and capricious.”

    “ByteDance’s submission and compliance with Chinese law has rendered it a reliable, useful, and far reaching ear and mouthpiece for the Party and State,” the Trump administration wrote at the time in a document motivating the proposed ban. The document cited ByteDance’s commitment to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as resulting in “systemic censorship of content across its platforms” and “the harvesting of user data.”

    In the document, the Trump administration stressed noted:

    “ByteDance, as a company, and its subsidiaries are subject to PRC national security laws that require or compel the assistance of any Chinese citizen or entity in surveillance and intelligence operations. As ByteDance is subject to PRC jurisdiction, PRC laws can compel cooperation from ByteDance…”

    Chinese law requires all Chinese companies to turn over information to the Communist Party upon request — and ByteDance reportedly employs more than 130 Party members to ensure compliance, among other matters.

    The Trump administration stated :

    “One of the foremost national security risks presented by the TikTok mobile application in the United States is the possibility that the PRC government could, through lawful authority, extralegal influence (Communist Party) influence, or PRCISS, compel TikTok to provide systemic access to U.S. user’s sensitive personal information. A number of press reports clearly indicate the PRC Government has already compelled TikTok to assist them for domestic surveillance, censorship, and propaganda action within China, and their compliance is indicative of how they are likely to respond to intelligence requests on U.S. users. Given the bounty of information TikTok could offer on foreign users, as well as the aforementioned cyber tactics employed by the PRC, the Department of Commerce assesses the PRC and PRCISS would not limit their use of TikTok to domestic concerns and would instead use it for foreign intelligence and surveillance.”

    Furthermore, similar to the concerns expressed by Wray, the Trump administration argued,

    “The PRC government and the CCP can exert influence on ByteDance and, through the TikTok app, censor and shape content available to U.S. users in ways that can influence their opinions and views of China.”

    In April 2021, U.S. Senator Josh Hawley wrote:

    “TikTok is a Trojan Horse for the Chinese Communist Party that has no place on government devices—or any American devices, for that matter…. TikTok has repeatedly proven itself to be a malicious actor.”

    According to Adonis Hoffman, a former chief of staff and senior legal advisor at the FCC who has served in legal and policy positions in the U.S. House of Representatives:

    “Its algorithm is at once simple and sinister. Download the app on your smartphone and you have given China access to all your data… This opens a treasure trove of data on millions of Americans for the Chinese government to use whenever and however they choose. And history shows they use that data for nefarious purposes.”

    President Joe Biden reversed Trump’s attempt at banning TikTok, signing an executive order in June 2021 that revoked Trump’s proposed ban. Instead, the Biden administration has sought to work out the security concerns with ByteDance through a negotiated deal with the Chinese company that would reportedly allow TikTok to continue operating in the US without any change of ownership.

    “Well, I think Donald Trump was right,” Senator Mark Warner, D-Va., chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, recently said.

    “I mean, TikTok is an enormous threat. So, if you’re a parent, and you’ve got a kid on TikTok, I would be very, very concerned. All of that data that your child is inputting and receiving is being stored somewhere in Beijing.”

    Brendan Carr, a Republican commissioner at the Federal Communications Commission, said in November that the only way to resolve the national security concerns regarding TikTok would be to ban the app.

    “I don’t believe there is a path forward for anything other than a ban,” Carr said. According to Axios:

    There simply isn’t “a world in which you could come up with sufficient protection on the data that you could have sufficient confidence that it’s not finding its way back into the hands of the [Chinese Communist Party],” Carr said.

    In October, Forbes revealed that a China-based team at ByteDance had planned to use TikTok to track the locations of an unspecified number of Americans.

    In December, it was revealed that ByteDance had used the app to surveil several journalists to track down the journalists’ sources.

    According to Texas Governor Greg Abbott:

    “TikTok harvests vast amounts of data from its users’ devices — including when, where and how they conduct internet activity — and offers this trove of potentially sensitive information to the Chinese government,”

    Also in December, Indiana became the first U.S. state to sue TikTok, for misleading users about the Chinese government’s capacity to access their data and showing mature content to minors.

    “The company’s ownership of TikTok is problematic for two reasons,” wrote Republican Senator Marco Rubio and Republican US Representative Mike Gallagher.

    “First, the app can track cellphone users’ locations and collect internet-browsing data — even when users are visiting unrelated website.

    “That TikTok, and by extension the CCP, has the ability to survey every keystroke teenagers enter on their phones is disturbing. With this app, Beijing could also collect sensitive national security information from U.S. government employees and develop profiles on millions of Americans to use for blackmail or espionage…

    Even more alarming than that possibility, however, are the potential abuses of TikTok’s algorithm…

    Its algorithm is a black box, in that its designers can alter its operation at any time without informing users… in the hands of ByteDance, it could also be used to subtly indoctrinate American citizens.

    TikTok has already censored references to politically sensitive topics, including the treatment of workers in Xinjiang, China, and the 1989 protests in Tiananmen Square. It has temporarily blocked an American teenager who criticized the treatment of Uyghurs in China. In German videos about Chinese conduct toward Uyghurs, TikTok has modified subtitles for terms such as ‘reeducation camp’ and ‘labor camp,’ replacing words with asterisks.”

    In China, the content available on TikTok could not be more different. China serves up the “spinach version“: science, physics, engineering and patriotism. In the US, TikTok serves up the “opium version.” Tristan Harris, a former Google employee, said of China’s approach to TikTok on CBS’ 60 Minutes:

    “It’s almost like [the Chinese] recognize that technology is influencing kids’ development, and they make their domestic version a spinach version of TikTok, while they ship the opium version to the rest of the world.”

    “If you’re under 14 years old, they show you science experiments you can do at home, museum exhibits, patriotism videos and educational videos,” said Harris of the content served by TikTok within China, adding that Chinese children were limited to only 40 minutes a day on the app.

    “There’s a survey of pre-teens in the U.S. and China asking, ‘what is the most aspirational career that you want to have?’ and in the U.S., the No. 1 was a social media influencer, and in China, the No. 1 was astronaut. You allow those two societies to play out for a few generations and I can tell you what your world is going to look like.”

    TikTok urgently needs to be banned from the US and the rest of the free world.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 22:40

  • "A Historic Turning Point": China Reports Blowout Q4 Economic Data As Population Falls For First Time In Decades
    “A Historic Turning Point”: China Reports Blowout Q4 Economic Data As Population Falls For First Time In Decades

    If there was any doubt that China is back – or was back even when it was still largely mostly locked down with various now defunct Covid zero restrictions – all those doubts were magically whisked away moments ago when Beijing’s not-so-random number goalseekatron published the data dump for Q4 which – drumroll – not only beat across the board, but absolutely smashed expectations.

    Here is what China’s National BS (which stands for Bureau of Statistics of course), reported moments ago for a quarter when Covid Zero was still all the rage (before China mysteriously called time on the worst economic policy of the past three years):

    • Q4 GDP +2.9% y/y; down predictably from the Q3 +3.9% as zero Covid policies hammered growth for most of Q4 (China was mostly locked down during the quarter), but smashing the estimate of +1.6% and not far from the highest forecast (range -1.1% to +3.5% from 28 economists).
    • 2022 cumulative GDP +3% y/y; also beating expectations of +2.7%; curiously this was unchanged from the estimate of the first 9 months which was also at +3%
    • Dec. industrial production +1.3% y/y; beating expectations of  +0.1%, and down from Nov’s +2.2%
    • Dec. retail sales -1.8% y/y; smashing expectations of a -9% plunge, and a big improvement from Nov’s -5.9% plunge.
    • Jan.-Dec. fixed-asset investment excluding rural households +5.1% y/y; also beating expectations of +5%, and a modest slowdown from the Jan.-Nov. print of +5.3%
    • Dec jobless rate 5.5%, down from 5.7% in Nov.

    Solid data dump aside, there was continued weakness across property and housing, although as we already know this sector is poised for a huge surge now that China is phasing out its “three red lines” and its bad debt firms are planning up to $24 billion in support for developers.

    • Jan.-Dec. property investment -10% y/y vs -9.8% in Jan.- Nov.
    • Jan.-Dec. residential property sales -28.3% y/y vs -28.4% in Jan.-Nov.

    A snapshot of the data:

    On paper, all of the above looks great. On paper, however, it’s of course all fake as Australia’s Bill Birties points out:

    It is extraordinary that an economic quarter that saw restrictions across multiple cities for Covid followed by mass nationwide outbreak in December… would see not only as much economic activity as the same period a year earlier, but almost 3% more…

    But while the “surprise” beat in China’s GDP (and everything else) was tonight’s big headline, there was another big headline in the big (non-surprise) decline in China’s population. As the NBS reported, China’s total population fell by 850,000 in 2022, to about 1.41 billion at end-2022, a drop for the first time since 1961, the final year of the Great Famine under former leader Mao Zedong.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    According to the data, a total of 10.41 million people died, a slight increase from around 10 million recorded in recent years (good thing there were no pandemic at the time). At the same time, some 9.56 million babies were born in 2022, down from 10.62 million a year earlier, the lowest level since at least 1950, despite efforts by the government to encourage families to have more children.

    “This is a truly historic turning point, an onset of a long-term and irreversible population decline,” said Wang Feng, an expert on Chinese demographic change at the University of California, Irvine.

    While the decline officially began last year, with deaths outstripping births, the FT notes that some demographers argue that the trend likely started before then. Fuxian Yi, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, estimated that China’s population started to fall in 2018, but the drop was obscured by “faulty demographic data”.

    “China is facing a demographic crisis that far exceeds the imagination of Chinese authorities and the international community,” said Yi, noting that the trend will act as a long-term drag on the country’s property market, a crucial engine of growth.

    “Abundant labor has been the fuel that has driven China’s rapid growth for more than four decades,” said Yi, “and now China is flying at high speed without enough fuel.”

    Some economists argue that the rise of automation will offset rising labour costs as the number of workers shrinks.

    China’s demographic disaster aside, the stellar economic data – at least in the context of consensus expectations – was still quite poor: China’s economy grew at the second slowest pace since the 1970s in 2022 as Covid restrictions hammered activity, though better-than-forecast fourth quarter and December data add to optimism it may be primed for a recovery; it was also well below the governments target last year of around 5.5%, although that’s where 2023 comes in. According to Ho Woei Chen, an economist at United Overseas Bank in Singapore, China’s latest economic data suggest the momentum for recovery will be stronger in 1Q this year with the reopening of the borders and relaxation of the regulatory oversight in some sectors including property. And it’s all uphill from there.

    “We are maintaining our forecast for 2023 at 5.2%. Economic recovery is likely to accelerate in 2Q as the population achieves herd immunity, which will pave the way for further normalization in activities and a v-shaped recovery in private consumption”

    “On the key risks, we remain cautious on the external outlook and the sluggish real estate market could also take the tailwind out of this recovery.”

    Still, even 5.2% might not be enough. According to the head of the National Bureau of Statistics, Kang Yi, China has to more than double the current per capita GDP of about $12,700 in order to achieve its 2035 goal, although now that the population is declining, this target may be easier to achieve even if it means eventually surrendering the superpower status to India which as of this moment is officially the world’s most populous country.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 22:18

  • Did The Deep State Turn On Biden?
    Did The Deep State Turn On Biden?

    Authored by Christopher Roach via AmGreatness.com,

    Lately political analysis in the United States seems closer to Cold War-era Kremlinology. Small hints of what is really happening must be divined from the unintentional slips and innocuous gestures of officials. The reality of governance is concealed by a cloak of normality, procedural regularity, and legality. 

    This is to be expected within party politics, where things are resolved with deals among party insiders, i.e., the proverbial “smoke filled rooms.” This is why Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar rather suddenly dropped out to make way for Joe Biden in 2020, after it appeared the divided field could end up with Bernie Sanders as the nominee. 

    But this approach – secret groups secretly deciding how to control events – is not supposed to dominate ordinary governance. 

    The Deep State Revealed Itself Under Trump

    Donald Trump faced harassment from the Intelligence Community and other unelected parts of government throughout his term as president. Delaying the provision of funds Congress appropriated for Ukraine—something well within his authority as president—formed the basis of the first impeachment. A crew of insiders and bureaucrats waxed eloquent about their sacred “interagency consensus,” but the Congress and the American people were not buying it. Americans still think elections are supposed to matter. 

    In spite of his manifest unpopularity and refusal even to campaign, Biden was installed as president in 2020. Having rarely met an actual Biden supporter, Trump voters were skeptical and angry. The extended recounts, unceremonious dismissal of legal challenges, and videos of disappearing ballots, along with strident denunciations of “election deniers,” did not reassure anyone. Later revelations showed the coordinated way government officials, the media, NGOs, billionaires, and others conspired to “fortify” the 2020 election. 

    Biden governed as he ran: mostly hidden from the public, beholden to donors and party elders, doing as little as possible. This seemed acceptable for a while, since it allowed the various constituent parts of the government to do what they wanted with little interference. Everyone knows Biden’s never been that sharp and seems more decrepit than ever, that his vice president is even dumber than he is, and that he’s not really running anything. 

    But this is all a feature, not a bug, for the cabal that brought him to office. For them, the more independence they have from oversight, the better. 

    Biden Has Enemies

    Lately, it seems there’s a disturbance in the force. Biden and his allies have continued their vendetta against Trump, exposing his tax returns and raiding his home for possessing documents he supposedly owed the National Archives. This did not go over as well as Attorney General (and all-around hack) Merrick Garland anticipated, and it seems Garland and the January 6 Committee have each decided to scale back their demands. 

    This is why the recent exposure of top secret documents in Biden’s old office, his garage, and a mysterious third location suggests something is afoot. We went from a Monday disclosure to a special counsel being appointed on Thursday. Nothing like this happens this quickly unless it is by design. 

    There are, of course, ways to deal with this situation that do not involve public exposure. Couldn’t Biden or his staff order some FBI agents or White House people to pick them up and take them to wherever they’re supposed to be stored? 

    It’s in the news because somehow his lawyers found the documents and reported them before the story could go through White House channels. And, lawyers being lawyers, they followed the street-lawyer rule that if someone has to go to jail, make sure it’s your client and not you. Concerned about individual culpability for obstruction or mishandling documents, they made this hot potato someone else’s problem as fast as possible. 

    Someone is responsible for the way this information came out, and that someone is an enemy of Biden. There are plenty of possibilities: some secret Republicans at the Justice Department, Kamala Harris and her people, a committee of Democratic Party insiders concerned about Dementia Joe being president for another four years. The whole thing has a whiff of a conspiracy, and, like the various allegations and pretexts employed to investigate Trump, it may very well originate in the intelligence community. 

    As Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) once said, “You take on the intelligence community, they have six ways from Sunday at getting back at you.” In this instance, the hypothesis is not completely satisfying. Biden has not really taken on the intelligence community, so far as I can tell, unless they’re still smarting about how he ended the Afghanistan boondoggle. 

    Republicans Should Put Country Over Party

    Republicans seem gleeful over the news. This is unsurprising. It’s the millionth example of rank hypocrisy from Democrats. But, judging by past results, pointing out such hypocrisy does not seem to get us anywhere. It may put a damper on Merrick Garland’s pursuit of Trump for his alleged violations of the Presidential Records Act, but this already seemed to have lost steam on its own.

    Republican glee should be more restrained, as their excitement is akin to aristocrats in Revolutionary France cheering on Robespierre’s Terror when it turned on the revolutionaries themselves. Such a development makes things more dangerous for everyone, even if it sweeps up some of one’s enemies. 

    If the exposure of Biden’s apparent mishandling of classified documents arose from an intelligence community operation, it shows that the unelected deep state is beholden to neither Democrats nor Republicans. In other words, it will have revealed itself as a completely unaccountable branch of government, subject neither to Congress, the president, the judiciary, or any ideological faction. 

    This would be a profoundly un-American development, but it would not be a huge surprise. Instead of accepting the small fry of defeating an already unpopular, not-quite-elected president, Republicans should instead join forces with everyone of good will and focus on exposing and defanging the unelected portions of government, which mean to place themselves above every branch of government, as well as the American people themselves.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 21:30

  • MSM Outlets Demand To Know Who Guaranteed Bankman-Fried's $250 Million Bond
    MSM Outlets Demand To Know Who Guaranteed Bankman-Fried’s $250 Million Bond

    Eight MSM outlets have asked the US judge overseeing the case of Sam Bankman-Fried to make public the names of two people who helped front the FTX founder’s $250 million bond.

    Sam Bankman-Fried being escorted by PI Jimmy Harkins from court after he was released on $250 million bond.

    The outlets – AP, Bloomberg, CNBC, WSJ publisher Dow Jones, the Financial Times, Insider and WaPo – along with a separate request by the NY Times – argue that the public interest “cannot be overstated,” saying that the public’s right to know outweighs the guarantors’ rights to privacy.

    In a letter to U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan, the lawyers distinguished the case from another judge’s December 2020 decision not to reveal who guaranteed a bond for British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell, then accused and later convicted of aiding in financier Jeffrey Epstein’s sex crimes. –Reuters

    “While Mr. Bankman-Fried is accused of serious financial crimes, a public association with him does not carry nearly the same stigma as with the Jeffrey Epstein child sex trafficking scandal,” wrote lawyers for the outlets.

    Notably, the judge in the SBF case is the same one who presided over Ghislaine Maxwell’s case, while SBF’s lawyers, Mark Cohen and Christian Everdell, also represented Maxwell in her criminal case. SBF also hired James P. Harkins, a private investigator known as the “real hound dog,” who also worked for Ghislaine.

    SBF’s lawyers have argued that his parents – who co-signed the $250 million bond using their house as (very fractional) collateral, have been harassed and received physical threats since the early November collapse of FTX. One of the conditions of his bail would be house arrest at his parents’ home in Palo Alto, California.

    Source: Daily Mail

    According to the NY Post, the family had contracted a private security firm in the Bay Area to patrol the grounds for $10,000 per week to protect SBF from mounting death threats. 

    One source told the Post, “They’re [family] nervous … there have been numerous death threats. They’re not taking any chances.

    Bankman-Fried’s parents hired workers to construct a network of security cameras around the home on the edge of Stanford University’s campus. 

    SBF’s lawyers say there is a “serious cause for concern” over the two other guarantors if their names went public.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 20:55

  • China Reopening Boosts Copper Outlook
    China Reopening Boosts Copper Outlook

    By Ewa Manthery of ING Economics

    Copper jumped above $9,000/t for the first time since June at the beginning of 2023 on optimism about China’s economy, after Beijing abandoned its zero-Covid policy.

    We believe there is more upside for copper prices as demand in China picks up after the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of this month.

    Copper benefits from zero-Covid exit

    Copper has been rallying since late November amid a series of supportive policies in China and Beijing’s abrupt abandonment of Covid controls. The red metal has also received support from the weaker US dollar, which slid to a near seven-month low recently on growing expectations for a less hawkish Federal Reserve after cooler inflation and employment data.

    In our November outlook, we said China remained the big question mark for the copper market going forward. There have been important developments since then, with China making a full U-turn on its zero-Covid strategy.

    The virus was officially downgraded on 8 January when international arrivals were no longer required to quarantine.

    China’s lifting of Covid measures will, in time, help the economy to normalise, our China economist believes. But we can expect the short-term to be dominated by the very high level of Covid cases, which have come at a time when the economy is already very weak.

    Looking at other economies in the region which have suffered similar severe waves of Covid (India’s Delta wave) we would expect this wave to last no more than three months at which time the economy could start to revert to a more normal footing. Zeng Guang, the former chief scientist at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, has recently said that China’s Covid outbreak could continue for another two to three months.

    However, this could also coincide with the US and Europe entering recession, which will weigh on any manufacturing recovery and export growth even as China’s domestic issues abate.

    We believe, for copper, China’s Covid policy change should prove supportive for demand in the medium to long run, although rising Covid infections could weigh on demand in the immediate term.

    Copper is rising on China reopening, slower Fed rate hikes

    Property stimulus improves confidence

    Beijing has released a raft of policy measures in recent weeks which have increased confidence that the economy is stabilising, improving the outlook for industrial metals, including copper. For almost two decades, China’s property sector growth and the country’s rapid urbanisation have been the key driver of growth for copper demand. 

    China will return to “normal” growth soon as Beijing steps up support for households and businesses, Guo Shuqing, party secretary of the People’s Bank of China, told state media recently.

    The world’s biggest consumer of copper is expected to quickly rebound because of the country’s optimised Covid response and after its economic policies continue to take effect, Guo said.

    In its most recent move, China is planning to allow some property firms to add leverage by easing borrowing caps and pushing back the grace period for meeting debt targets. The move would relax the strict “three red lines” policy which had contributed to a historic property downturn, hitting demand for industrial metals. The easing would add to a raft of policy moves issued since November to bolster the ailing property sector, which accounts for around a quarter of the country’s economy.

    China’s economy ended 2022 in a major slump. Factory activity in the country contracted in December at the fastest pace in nearly three years. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slumped to 47 last month from 48 in November, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

    It was the biggest drop since February 2020 and also marked the third straight month of contraction for the index.

    The non-manufacturing PMI, which measures activity in the services sector, plunged to 41.6 last month from 46.7 in November. It also marked the lowest level in nearly three years.

    And although the government has stepped up its support for the property market, the effects are still slow to take effect – home sales fell again in December. The 100 biggest real estate developers saw new home sales drop 30.8% from a year earlier to 677.5 billion yuan ($98.2 billion) in December, according to data from China Real Estate Information Corp. That compared with a 25.5% decline in November.

    Housing prices fell 0.25% in December from the previous month, the 16th consecutive month of declines.

    We believe more stimulus and infrastructure spending could be unveiled at the National People’s Congress in March, which is likely to boost demand for commodities further.

    Global stocks at multi-year lows

    The demand boost for copper comes at a time when global stockpiles held by exchanges remain low. Last year, shrinking inventories were overshadowed by weakening global demand, but a revival in demand this year could set up the market for further squeezes and spikes in prices.

    Copper stocks in LME warehouses remain low, representing just two days’ worth of global usage. Inventories on the SHFE and COMEX are also extremely low. Between the three exchanges, global copper inventories are now down to just a few days of consumption.

    More price upside ahead

    We have increased our 2023 copper price forecast amid China’s reopening optimism, but we maintain a cautious view for the first quarter as Covid cases across China continue to rise. We now see copper prices averaging $8,700/t in the first quarter. We believe any further gains are likely to be capped as the Lunar New Year approaches.

    Following a surge in cases, economic activity will start to revert to a more normal footing with demand recovering by the second quarter.

    But we expect this to be temporary and China’s Covid policy change should prove supportive for copper demand in the medium and long term.

    We believe that once China gets over the current wave of Covid-19 infections and the country learns to live with Covid, a recovery in Chinese demand will boost copper prices further.

    We expect prices to continue to recover from the second quarter onwards on the back of improving reopening sentiment and tight inventories with prices hovering around $9,100/t in the fourth quarter.

    However, global macroeconomic headwinds are likely to persist in 2023 and the risk of global recession will remain a threat to the demand recovery in China, capping further gains.

    Any further spikes in copper prices will also depend on the US Federal Reserve’s stance towards its monetary policy. Less aggressive tightening would limit any upside in the US dollar and could further boost copper prices.

    Longer-term, we still believe copper demand will improve amid the accelerated move into renewables and electric vehicles (EVs). In EVs, copper is a key component used in the electric motor, batteries, and wiring, as well as in charging stations. Copper cannot be substituted in EVs or wind and solar energy, and its appeal to investors as a key green metal will support higher prices over the next few years.

    ING forecasts

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 20:20

  • Beijing Gives Didi Green Light To Sign Up New Users, Signaling End Of Regulatory Crackdown
    Beijing Gives Didi Green Light To Sign Up New Users, Signaling End Of Regulatory Crackdown

    ADRs of Didi will be on watch heading into the shortened trading week as the company has reportedly “secured the green light to resume signing up new users”, according to new reports from Bloomberg and Yahoo. 

    The resumption of business as somewhat normal came as Didi was made the poster child for a Beijing-led crackdown on China’s internet industry. The decision to allow Didi to continue operating is being hailed as a “clear sign” that Beijing is prioritizing re-starting the country’s economy after locking down for Covid. 

    Didi’s app had been removed from app stores in 2021, but services could “soon return to Apple and Android stores” as a result of the resumption. Didi has long been compared to Uber in China, but most recently became famous alongside of the halted Ant Group Co.’s IPO as a symbol of China’s crackdown on its internet industry. 

    The crackdown on Didi came after the company “pushed ahead with a $4 billion-plus US initial public offering against Beijing’s wishes”. It is being speculated that now, with the resumption of signing up users, the company may eventually list in Hong Kong.

    Combined with recent concessions made regarding Ant Group, it sends a signal that the government may be easing up on the industry as a whole. Guo Shuqing, party secretary of the People’s Bank of China, has alluded to the regulatory clampdown drawing to a close, Bloomberg wrote. 

    Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Catherine Lim said in a report this weekend: “The relaunch of Didi apps supports earlier indications from Beijing that required reforms within local technology sector are near-completion. Disruptions to the operations of tech giants such as Alibaba, Tencent should be minimal in 2023.”

    It may also see Didi stock – which had traded on the over the counter markets – once again attempt an uplisting in the United States. 

    “In the future, the company will take effective measures to guarantee the security of our platform infrastructure and big data, and maintain national cybersecurity,” Didi said in a company-issued statement this weekend.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 19:45

  • Will You Beat Uncle Sam's Relentless Pursuit Of Your Wealth?
    Will You Beat Uncle Sam’s Relentless Pursuit Of Your Wealth?

    Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

    The United States is lurching towards an epic financial catastrophe.  This isn’t a novel insight.  The great tragedy has been in the works for decades.  Anyone with a mild inkling of curiosity knows what’s going on.

    According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s population clock, the U.S. population is over 334 million.  This, no doubt, is a lot of mouths to feed and people to clothe and shelter.  But that’s not all.

    Many of these people also need some sort of medical care throughout the year.  Some may break their arm.  Others may have their appendix burst or suffer cardiac arrest.  There are also serious medical emergencies from car accidents or other hazards.

    In an economy characterized by limited government and individual liberty people are self-supporting.  They provide the means to pay for these needs through the fruits of their own labors.  Minors are supported by their families until they can provide for themselves.  The elderly may fall back on their kids if they didn’t squirrel away enough nuts during their working years.

    In an economy characterized by central planning this is not the case.  Large segments of the population are dependent on government programs for their daily bread.  They also look to the benevolent hand of government to pay for their drugs and other medical needs.

    The U.S., over the last 100 years, has transformed from a nation of self-supporting individuals to a nation of collective dependents.  In fact, the U.S., at this very moment, is closing in on a significant milestone.

    Several days before the Ides of March, 100 million people – or approximately 30 percent of the total population – will be on Medicaid.  Can you believe it?

    Forced Philanthropy

    An outfit out of Naples, Florida, called the Foundation for Government Accountability (FGA), even has a special website with a countdown clock so you can monitor precisely when this magical moment arrives.  The FGA is forecasting that Medicaid enrollment will hit the 100 million mark sometime between the late evening of March 12 and early morning of March 13.

    Will you pop a bottle of bubbly and toast this momentous accomplishment?

    The actual significance of 100 million is found primarily in the number itself.  It’s big.  And round.  It offers a unique opportunity to pause and contemplate the madness of what’s been erected.

    How is it that 100 million Americans ended up on Medicaid?  Could it be that the entire Country will one day be ensnared by this program’s wide casted nets?  What happens to the quality of medical care when payments for services rendered are diverted through an ultra-mega government program?

    Politicians, by and large, are enamored by transfer payment programs.  The more idealistic of the lot may believe that through their programs of forced philanthropy they’re making the world a better place.  Others just get a thrill out of employing central planning to control the masses.

    “The way to Hell is paved with good intentions,” remarked Karl Marx in Das Kapital.  The devious fellow was bemoaning evil capitalists for having the audacity to use their own money for the purpose of making more money.

    Marx, a wordy busybody, was consistently wrong.  The road to hell is paved with plenty more than good intentions.  Grift, graft, larceny, corruption, and fake money all compose the pavement.  Good intentions are simply sprinkled on top to improve the aesthetic.

    Government Scam

    Perhaps Medicaid, when it was first created under the Social Security Amendments of 1965, was established with good intentions.  Who, but a complete Scrooge, could possibly be against providing medical aid to low-income residents?

    But what you may not know is that Medicaid, in its current form, is an absolute government scam.  Strings from the coronavirus fiasco have been attached to the program, which places state governments at the mercy of the federal government.  The FGA offers the following details:

    “The sharp rise in enrollment is largely due to the federal government’s continued extension of the COVID-19 public health emergency which locks states in ‘Medicaid Handcuffs.’  While the emergency is in effect, states receive extra Medicaid funding on the condition that everyone enrolled remains locked into the program.  This has led to an additional 24 million enrollees, more than 21 million of whom would previously not have qualified because they earn too much money or are otherwise ineligible.” 

    The price tag for these 21 million otherwise ineligible Medicaid enrollees comes to $16 billion per month – or $192 billion per year.  The taxpayer – that’s you – foots the bill.

    As perspective, to better understand how many ineligible people 21 million represents let’s look to Florida.  The population of Florida, the third largest state in the Country, is 22 million.  So, the equivalent of nearly the entire population of Florida, is illegitimately on Medicaid.

    Think about that on Monday morning when you rise at the crack of dawn to start up your daily grind once again.  Think about that the next time you peruse your paycheck and see the massive federal income tax deduction being confiscated.

    How many other government scams are you working to pay for?

    The actual costs of the scam portion of Medicaid are much, much more than $16 billion per month.  As the FGA notes, as welfare enrollment – including Medicaid enrollment – increases, workforce participation decreases.  So, the ability of the U.S. economy to pay for Medicaid and other government scams is diminished.

    Yet the madness continues.  Washington policies are handcuffing people to dependency who are entirely ineligible for the programs they’re dependent on.  What’s more, they’re doing this at the worst possible time.

    Will You Beat Uncle Sam’s Relentless Pursuit of Your Wealth?

    Presently, the U.S. national debt is over $31.4 trillion.  Factor in unfunded liabilities – such as social security, Medicare parts A, B, and D, federal debt held by the public, and federal employee and veteran benefits – and the number jumps to $173.5 trillion.  That comes to over $519,000 per citizen.

    These debts won’t magically disappear.  However, they won’t be directly paid either.  Simple arithmetic doesn’t allow it.  But they will be paid, nonetheless.

    You’ll pay with your time and your talents.  You’ll pay with a declining standard of living.  In fact, you already are.

    This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest inflation data.  According to the government’s aggregate data manufacturers, consumer prices, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), increased at an annual rate in December of 6.5 percent.  After peaking in June 2022 at 9.1 percent, the rate of inflation has steadily slowed.

    Should you be happy that you’re only being robbed of 6.5 percent of your savings per year instead of 9.1 percent?

    Remember, at an ‘official’ inflation rate of 6.5 percent it only takes 11 years for the purchasing power of your savings to be cut in half.  And 11 years is only about one-fourth of a person’s working years.  In other words, over the duration of a person’s working life their earnings will be cut in half at least four times.

    Wage and salary increases may soften the blow.  But they won’t keep pace with government sponsored inflation.  In truth, real wages have declined for 21-months in a row.

    And what about after retirement when employment income disappears?  In this regard, a retiree should expect the purchasing power of their savings to be cut in half at least once – possibly twice.

    This, in essence, is how you’ll pay for Washington’s massive debts and unfunded liabilities.  The Medicaid scam is but one example of the servitude you’re indentured to.

    By this, saving and investing your income and wealth has never been more important.  With hard work, diligence, unending perseverance, and some luck, you can maintain your independence and standard of living in the face of Uncle Sam’s relentless pursuit of your wealth.

    The challenge is great.  The stakes are grave.

    *  *  *

    This is a very challenging time for investors.  Inflation.  Deflation.  Recession.  The dangers are prominent.  However, it’s also the genesis of the next great wave of wealth over the next decade.  And we intend to ride it all the way.  If this interests you, take a gander at my Financial First Aid Kit.  Inside, you’ll find everything you need to know to prosper and protect your privacy as the global economy slips into a worldwide depression.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 19:10

  • Ron Paul: Isn't It Time For Adam Schiff To Be Expelled From Congress?
    Ron Paul: Isn’t It Time For Adam Schiff To Be Expelled From Congress?

    Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    With each new release of the “Twitter Files” we learn more and more about the deep corruption in Washington. We sensed during Covid that something was really wrong – for example the bizarre denial of natural immunity. But thanks to Elon Musk’s decision to open the books, our worst fears have been proven true. Each new release seems to show something even more criminal inside America’s rotten ruling class.

    In the latest release, thanks to the excellent reporting of independent journalist Matt Taibbi, we see outgoing Chair of the House Intelligence Community, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), continuously pressuring Twitter to validate his fantasies of “Russian bots” manipulating US politics.

    The short version of what Taibbi reported comes from around the time then-Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) was about to release his Committee’s findings about the FBI misuse of the FISA Court to spy on the Trump presidential campaign. The FBI, it turns out, relied exclusively on the widely-discredited “Steele Dossier” – paid by the Hillary Clinton campaign – as justification to spy on the Trump campaign.

    When pressure grew to release the Nunes findings, Twitter exploded with users demanding that Congress “release the memo.”

    That’s where then-ranking Member Schiff and his staff began relentlessly pressuring Twitter to show that the accounts demanding the release of the memo were actually Russian agents, out to help their supposed favorite, Donald Trump. Schiff was not alone. Fellow “Russiagate” hoaxers like Sen. Feinstein (D-CA) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) also pressured Twitter to find Russians behind the demand to release Nunes’ findings.

    Over and over, Twitter – which was hardly sympathetic to Trump – told Schiff and his colleagues there was simply no evidence of Russian involvement. As much as some Twitter employees may have liked to report the opposite, to their credit they refused to participate in the scam.

    Even after Twitter had informed Schiff and his fellow hoaxers that there was no Russian involvement, Sen. Blumenthal released a statement he knew was not true:

    “We find it reprehensible that Russian agents have so eagerly manipulated innocent Americans.”

    Again, this was right after he had been informed by Twitter employees – who were by-and-large strongly opposed to Trump – that there was just no evidence to back up such a statement.

    We are moving closer and closer to a nuclear showdown with Russia over Ukraine. For political gain the Democrats – and plenty of Republicans – have been pushing the “Russiagate” hoax and in so doing have fertilized the ground for the obsessive Russia hatred prevalent in the US today.

    I do not believe it is an exaggeration to say that if US/Russia relations had not been poisoned by the lie of “Russiagate” for pure political gain, we would not be anywhere near our current state of near-direct conflict with the largest nuclear power on earth, Russia.

    It is shocking that Schiff and his “Russiagate” allies would potentially sacrifice millions of dead Americans to defeat Trump and other political enemies.

    Let’s not forget: Rep. Jim Trafficant was expelled from Congress for asking his staffers to wash his boat.

    Shouldn’t there be at least equal punishment for Senators and Members who are lying us into World War III?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 18:35

  • Economists Warn Americans Recession Is Coming: "Don't Be Fooled"
    Economists Warn Americans Recession Is Coming: “Don’t Be Fooled”

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

    Two top economists said that despite contrary predictions, a recession will likely hit the United States in the near future.

    “Some economists argue that the strength of the labor market – as well as household balance sheets – will keep the economy strong enough to avoid a recession,” wrote Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the co-founders of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, in a Friday opinion article.

    “We disagree,” they wrote, saying that “it remains our expectation that the U.S. economy will enter a recession this year.”

    That’s because, in part, because of the Federal Reserve’s recent decisions to raise interest rates to their highest levels in decades in a bid to slow inflation levels not seen since the early 1980s, they wrote. The rate hike appears to have worked to an extent as the Labor Department last week confirmed that the consumer price index that measures inflation fell 0.1 percent in December to 6.5 percent.

    Last month, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rates by half a percentage point, while the last four hikes were all three-quarters of a percentage point.

    “Recessions always entail noticeable declines in both GDP and jobs, but such pullbacks are not necessarily obvious at the recession’s outset,” the two wrote for CNN, telling Americans “don’t be fooled” by rosy forecasts saying otherwise.

    “While GDP and jobs do move in step with the economy, by the time they are released, they only tell us where the economy had been in the recent past.”

    There have been similarities made to the current U.S. economy and the 2008 Great Recession, they wrote.

    Cartons of eggs are seen for sale in a Sprouts Farmers Market in Houston, Texas, on Aug. 15, 2022. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

    “Then, many—including then-President George W. Bush—were not concerned about a recession because GDP hadn’t declined yet, even though job losses had begun,” their article said.

    “We pushed back against the prevailing complacency, writing for CNN at the time, ‘While GDP has yet to decline, we have already seen four straight months of payroll job losses. That suggests that the economy is on a recession track. And it implies that either one or both of the recent, slightly positive GDP estimates will be revised down to negative readings by next year.’”

    A recession would include job losses. There have already been layoffs carried out this winter in the tech sector, led by Amazon, Meta and Facebook, Twitter, and others.

    “That is why—having predicted that the economy would enter a recession—last spring we urged job seekers ‘to update the resume and make any career moves while the job market is still hot,” Banerji and Achuthan wrote.

    And while a dropping GDP, or gross domestic product, and higher unemployment rates are telltale signs that a recession is underway, the two economists said that those two factors “do move in step with the economy, by the time they are released, they only tell us where the economy had been in the recent past.”

    “Employment, in particular, can hold up longer than expected in a recessionary scenario,” they added.

    “That was true in the inflationary era around the 1970s. Most notably, unemployment didn’t peak until eight months after the start of the severe 1973-1975 recession.”

    The Biden administration hasn’t released its December jobs report. In November, the country added 263,000 jobs, and unemployment held at 3.7 percent.

    More Forecasts

    Another economist, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, said in a recent interview that the U.S. economy still faces a recession sometime in 2023. That’s despite the encouraging reports in recent weeks about lower inflation and steady jobs numbers.

    “One has to be careful of false dawns,” Summers told Bloomberg last week. “I would stick with my view that a recession this year is more likely than not.”

    And about 61 percent of Wall Street Journal-surveyed economists predicted there would be a downturn within the next 12 months.

    “While recent inflation prints have shown some progress, a few persistent categories like core services are associated with the historically tight labor market, suggesting that there is still ‘a long way to go’ for the Fed,” Deutsche Bank economists Brett Ryan and Matthew Luzzetti said in the WSJ survey, released Sunday. “The Fed would stay on its tightening trajectory to restore the rebalance of labor market and price stability, which in our view would engineer a sharp rise in unemployment and recession,” they added.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 18:00

  • World Economic Forum Invents New Word To Describe The Extreme Chaos Gripping Our Planet
    World Economic Forum Invents New Word To Describe The Extreme Chaos Gripping Our Planet

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    This week, 2,658 of the “world’s decision-makers” will gather in Davos, Switzerland for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. 

    Protected by thousands of police officers and soldiers, the elite of the world will feast and party throughout the week as they shape the global agenda for the coming year.  Needless to say, our input is not desired or welcomed.  In order to get into this conference, you have got to be a part of their club, and in order to be a part of their club you must be a very important person.  It is being reported that the official list of 2,658 attendees this year includes “heads of state, business royalty, actual royalty, media honchos, and academics”…

    The world’s decision-makers are gathering in Switzerland this week for the World Economic Forum meeting. The annual event of business and government leaders is expecting a solid turnout as it returns to its traditional winter time slot following two years of covid disruptions.

    According to the official list, which is accurate as of Jan. 10, 2,658 attendees are registered for the event. Among them are heads of state, business royalty, actual royalty, media honchos, and academics. There are hundreds more participating on the sidelines, whether organizing, catering, or attending corporate events along the promenade that cuts through the center of Davos.

    I suppose that someone could try to show up at the conference unannounced, but it is not likely that anyone that is not authorized will get very close.

    All of the roads leading to the conference have checkpoints, and apparently fingerprint scanners are being used in some cases to verify identities.

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    I can’t recall ever seeing anything quite like this.

    In addition to hordes of regular police, the Swiss military will be providing “up to 5,000 soldiers” to bolster security…

    With one week to go until the who’s who of the most radical globalists descend upon the picturesque ski resort town of Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting, up to 5,000 soldiers from the Swiss army will be deployed to offer military support to the civil authorities of the canton of Graubünden, who are responsible for securing the summit’s premises and its participants.

    In a statement released Friday, January 6th, the Swiss Defense Department (VBS) said that the Federal Assembly, the country’s parliament, had approved the deployment of the Swiss army contingent to ensure the security of thousands of participants, the Swiss German-language newspaper Blick reports. This year’s deployment is part of a three-year commitment, from 2022 to 2024, by Parliament to support these high profile civic activities.

    Somehow, Klaus Schwab and his minions have turned this annual gathering in Davos into a “must attend” event for the global elite.

    And if there is anything that the global elite do not like, it is mixing with the general population.

    As Paul Joseph Watson has aptly observed, it is a big club and you and I are not part of it.

    Leading up to the conference, the WEF issued a “global risks report”, and in that report they actually created a brand new term to describe the extreme chaos that is gripping our world right now…

    The collective vocabularies stored in the world’s great dictionaries didn’t appear to hold a single world to sum up all this strife. So here’s a new one: Polycrisis.

    The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2023 uses the term, to explain how, “present and future risks can also interact with each other to form a ‘polycrisis’ – a cluster of related global risks with compounding effects, such that the overall impact exceeds the sum of each part”.

    Normally, I disagree with everything that the World Economic Forum does, but I actually kind of like this new term that they have come up with.

    We are definitely facing “a cluster of related global risks with compounding effects, such that the overall impact exceeds the sum of each part”, and 2023 will almost certainly be another year when we are hit by one crisis after another.

    I have often referred to what we are facing as “a perfect storm”, but I think that “polycrisis” is a pretty good descriptor as well.

    Unfortunately, virtually every “solution” that will be on the agenda at Davos will be bad for humanity.

    The globalists don’t seem to realize that the system that they have worked so hard to carefully construct is rapidly failing, and many in the general population are sick and tired of the self-destructive policies that they have been trying to push on all the rest of us.

    Interestingly, as the global elite gather in Davos an extremely rare “green comet” will be making a run toward Earth…

    A rare green comet, last seen in Earth’s skies 50,000 years ago, is revisiting our solar system and may become visible to the naked eye within the next few weeks.

    The comet – formally identified as C/2022 E3 (ZTF) but commonly called the “green comet” – won’t be as bright as other famous comets such as Halley’s or Hale-Bopp.

    “The brightness of comets is notoriously unpredictable, but by (Feb. 1) C/2022 E3 (ZTF) could become only just visible to the eye in dark night skies,” NASA said in its blog.

    This comet will be the closest to our planet on February 1st and 2nd, and that will be the best opportunity to potentially see it with the naked eye.

    Before I end this article, I wanted to acknowledge the passing of Lisa Marie Presley.

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    It is such a tragedy to lose her at such a young age.

    If Elvis was alive today, how do you think he would have responded to the sudden death of his little girl?

    2023 is just a little over two weeks old, and already there has been so much sadness.

    Unfortunately, I believe that much more sadness is coming, because the “polycrisis” that we are facing will only intensify even more as global events continue to accelerate.

    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 16:50

  • US NatGas Prices Rise As Models Suggest 'Polar Vortex To Unload On US'
    US NatGas Prices Rise As Models Suggest ‘Polar Vortex To Unload On US’

    Natural gas futures bounced off 18-month lows during the holiday session period as the latest runs of long-term weather models suggest winter might not be over for the Lower 48. 

    US NatGas futures for February delivery moved up 21 cents to $3.63 per million British thermal units. The price is now trading above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the main drop from the high of $10 in August 2022 and the low of $1.43 in June 2020. 

    The price of NatGas tumbled to an 18-month low last week as mild weather boosted injections into storage facilities by slashing demand. Last week, the Energy Information Administration announced a rare rise in inventories of 11 billion cubic feet in stocks.

    However, as we’ve pointed out in recent weeks and even days, first in “US NatGas Prices Slide To 18-Month Low On Warm Spell; Some Models Forecast Cold Blast In Weeks” and “California Pounding Continues, But Upcoming Large-Scale Weather Pattern Change On The Way,” as well as “Siberia Records Minus-80 Degrees As Talk Of Polar Vortex Grows,” long term weather models are showing the increasing possibility for colder weather. 

    The latest run of the Global Forecast System (GFS) shows the possibility of the return of winter by the end of the month. 

    Both GFS and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models for the Lower 48 show the possibility of a cold spell — when both long-term models suggest colder weather, the likelihood increases. 

    More mainstream meteorologists, such as Ryan Maue, are now pointing out that a wicked cold spell might be headed for the Lower 48. 

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    “Winter coming back,” tweeted Weather forecaster Joe Bastardi. 

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    NatGasWeather said cold returns around Jan. 26-30 and might last through the first week of Feb. 

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    Winter isn’t over yet. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 16:15

  • Chevron Sold Venezuelan Oil To Phillips 66
    Chevron Sold Venezuelan Oil To Phillips 66

    By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice

    Chevron Corp has sold a cargo of Venezuelan crude oil to another U.S. refinery, Phillips 66, anonymous sources have said.

    Chevron Corp recently sold 500,000 barrels of heavy Hamaca to U.S. refiner Phillips 66 to be used in its Sweeny, Texas refinery, the sources told Bloomberg.

    It would be the first such sale since the United States sanctioned Venezuela’s crude oil.

    In separate news, ConocoPhillips, which spun off its downstream business now known as Phillips 66 back in 2012, has expressed its willingness to sell Venezuela’s crude oil in the United States as a way to claw back some of the $10 billion owed by Venezuela. ConocoPhillips’ Venezuelan assets were nationalized in 2007—along with many other oil companies’ assets. ConocoPhillips has been authorized by the United States to negotiate debt recovery with PDVSA.

    Earlier this week, PDVSA assigned a third crude oil cargo to Chevron under the latter’s new license to import sanctioned Venezuelan crude oil after a more than three-year ban.

    Venezuela’s heavy crude oil is prized by U.S. refiners, who, until recently, looked to Russia’s heavy crude to replace it. In December, it was reported that several refiners were hitting up Chevron to get their hands on the rare Venezuelan crude oil.

    It was originally thought that Chevron could prioritize its own refineries, which have a history of using Venezuela’s heavy crude—and the first delivery of 500,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude oil—also Hamaca crude—did go to its Pascagoula, Mississippi refinery.

    Hamaca crude is an extra-heavy, sour blend, and the recent cargoes came from the Petropiar oil JV operated by Chevron and PDVSA. 

    While Chevron is the only oil company with approval from the U.S. to import crude oil from Venezuela, other oil and gas companies are looking for a similar authorization—including foreign oil and gas companies who are demanding fair treatment.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 15:40

  • The Best Video On Climate Change That You Will Ever See
    The Best Video On Climate Change That You Will Ever See

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    If you only play one video this year, the video below is the one you should play…

    Annual CO2 emissions chart from Data in Our World.

    This is an absolutely brilliant speech by British satirist, Konstantine Kisin.

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    Is Kisin’s Video For You?

    • If you think that you, president Biden, Gretta, Al Gore, or anyone in government will do anything that matters about climate change, the video is for you.

    • If you think that you, president Biden, Gretta, Al Gore, or anyone in government will not do anything that matters about climate change, the video is also for you.

    It’s less than seven minutes long. Play it.

    Play the video then think about the lead chart and the path of China and India while noting the whole continent of Africa is not even on the scale. 

    By the way, the population of India will soon to surpass China. 

    Importantly, and on a personal level, the single best thing you can do for the environment is to not have kids. 

    Climate Deniers

    I have been accused of being a climate denier. Mercy. Actually, I am a climate realist.

    Climate change is real and constant and has been ever since the earth formed. 

    The debate is over how much is manmade and even more importantly, what to do about it, whether it’s manmade or not.

    Regarding what percentage is manmade, I don’t know, nor does anyone else. But let’s say you disagree. 

    Then OK, I agree with you. Let’s assume recent climate change is 100% manmade. So what do we do about it?

    That has been my line of questioning for a long time. I just have never been able to express my line of thinking as clearly as Kisin in the above video.

    A Big Green Mess in Germany With Coal a Stunning 31 Percent of Electricity

    Assume there is a problem, then if there is a solution, it will not be the like of Gretta, AOC, Al Gore, president Biden, or the Green Party hypocrites who will fix it.

    Look no further than the Big Green Mess in Germany for what happens when politicians are faced with the decision to heat homes cheaply or cut back on CO2. 

    The EU plans to tax other nations for not addressing climate change, while Germany bulldozes a town to increase the size of a coal mine. It’s also lignite coal, the dirtiest kind.

    Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, a Green who is Germany’s economy and climate minister, defended the agreement as “a good decision for climate protection” that fulfills many of the environmentalists’ demands and saves five other villages from demolition.

    World’s Largest Tax Scheme

    For discussion of the EU’s hypocritical carbon tax scheme, please see EU Imposes the World’s Largest Carbon Tax Scheme.

    Meanwhile, the US is marching down an idiotic path towards electric vehicle mandates with no plan on where to get the minerals for the batteries. Nor does president Biden have an reasonable plan for the infrastructure needed. 

    Fed Chair Warns President Biden “We will not be a climate policymaker”

    Preposterous ideas have gotten so out of hand that Fed Chair Warns President Biden “We will not be a climate policymaker”

    “Without explicit congressional legislation, it would be inappropriate for us to use our monetary policy or supervisory tools to promote a greener economy or to achieve other climate-based goals. We are not, and will not be, a climate policymaker,” said Jerome Powell.

    I am not one who often praises the Fed, but that paragraph deserves a standing ovation. 

    Constant Hype

    The hype is constant and has been consistently wrong. In 2019 I noted Ocasio-Cortez Says World Will End in 12 Years: Here’s What to Do About It

    The world will still be here in 2050.

    On October 29, 2022, I noted UN Seeks $4 to 6 Trillion Per Year to Address Climate

    Yeah right. Politicians are going to give Africa, India, and third world countries trillions of dollars and tax the hell out of them if they don’t comply.

    The Hope of Fusion vs the Pomp of Politicians and Climate Activists

    If there is a climate problem, science will find the answer, not politicians or activists.

    For discussion, please see The Hope of Fusion vs the Pomp of Politicians and Climate Activists

    Nonetheless, there’s A Mad Rush to Build More EV Factories despite the fact we have no idea or plan to secure the minerals needed for the batteries. 

    And Germany has turned to bulldozing towns to produce more coal. 

    What a hoot.

    *  *  *

    Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 14:54

  • All The President's Men: Biden's Use Of Lawyers Raises Additional Concerns Over Handling Classified Material
    All The President’s Men: Biden’s Use Of Lawyers Raises Additional Concerns Over Handling Classified Material

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Below is my column in the New York Post on the curious use of lawyers by President Joe Biden in the classified document controversy. There was a clear decision made to rely on his own counsel rather than the FBI or security officers after the discovery of highly classified documents in a closet in a private office. The decision clearly brings greater control and protection for the President, but it can itself be viewed as additional evidence of gross mishandling of classified material. In the movie “All The President’s Men,” Woodward chastises his colleague Bernstein that “I don’t mind what you did; I mind how you did it.” President Biden may face the same objection in his decision to use counsel to search for classified material.

    Here is the column:

    The discovery of a fourth set of classified documents, at the Biden residence in Delaware, has further undermined the White House’s virtual mantra that the president “takes classified documents very seriously.”

    Putting aside the repeated movement of highly classified documents over six years, one curious element has emerged in this scandal: the use of private counsel.

    Not only did President Joe Biden enlist lawyers to clear out his private Washington office; he then used them — rather than security officers or the FBI — to search for additional classified documents.

    The initial use of lawyers is notable. While it seems a fairly pricey moving crew, Biden could argue a trove of documents might require a judgment on where they should be sent and whether they belong to Biden, the Penn Biden Center or the government.

    But why was a legal team sent in six years after Biden took the documents on leaving as vice president? Were the lawyers specifically selected because they had clearances, an acknowledgment there might be classified material unlawfully housed in the office?

    After the fourth batch of documents was discovered this week (the third found in Delaware), Richard Sauber, referred to as the “special counsel to the president,” stressed that he has a clearance. Sauber admits the lawyers who found the first batch at the residence didn’t have clearances but says he found the later documents.

    It remains unclear which lawyers were involved in which discoveries, whether they had clearances and (if so) at what level.

    In fact, it seems to suggest Biden continued to use uncleared lawyers after his team found highly classified documents Nov. 2 in the Penn Biden office closet in Washington.

    That itself could be viewed as gross mishandling of classified information.

    It’s strange Biden did not use security officers or the FBI to conduct further searches. The president has a host of people who regularly handle classified material. So why use the lawyers?

    The answer appears the same as in the case of Hillary Clinton’s emails: control. Using private counsel allows Biden to raise attorney-client privilege. Trump also used counsel, but eventually the FBI raided his home to search and remove not just classified material but documents found in boxes with that material.

    While that attorney-client privilege can be overcome under a “crime/fraud exception,” it adds a level of initial protection. It also allowed Biden to control the discovery and initial record of the discovery of classified information.

    The key to any investigation will be the chain of custody extending back to the documents’ removal in 2017 when Biden left office. How these documents appeared in their discovered locations is known only to his lawyers. It’s a link in the chain of custody that Biden effectively controls.

    With Mar-a-Lago, the FBI was criticized for staging documents to be shown in the storage room. The photos were then leaked to an eager media. There will be no staged photos of documents alongside Time magazine covers for Biden.

    Nor were documents he housed with classified documents removed. Indeed, it’s not clear if the FBI will know what documents were stored in the same boxes.

    What was potentially lost is significant. Classified documents are generally supposed to be in folders with a thick, colored border and large printed classification warnings. Were some of those folders observable before they were moved? If so, anyone could tell a pile contained classified material, including the president and passersby.

    Likewise, the initial discovery could show the context of surrounding material. The FBI at Mar-a-Lago carefully photographed that context and its search. Here, we’re relying on counsel to have kept such a record when most lawyers would be reluctant to do so given the risk to their client.

    The key is that unlike FBI agents, these lawyers are not acting on behalf of the public interest but for the president’s personal interests.

    If there are criminal charges, the key witnesses will be lawyers representing the president as an individual. They are more likely to minimize incriminating or embarrassing elements.

    And they are themselves under scrutiny. Since they may not have had sufficient clearances to do this work, it is in their interest to downplay any expectations or warnings of additional classified material scattered around Biden’s home or office.

    Concern over the use of lawyers has only grown with time. Biden not only continued to have his lawyers search after the first discovery, but did so for months through subsequent discoveries.

    After finding highly classified material in Biden’s garage Dec. 20, private counsel — not the FBI — found another document in an adjacent room Jan 11. Sauber found more classified documents the next day.

    Those last two findings followed White House assurances that the “thorough” search was “completed.” It obviously wasn’t thorough enough.

    They raised another question. It would seem unlikely a document with a proper classified cover could be missed. The folder has thick red or yellow borders running around the edges and large black classifications like “TOP SECRET” emblazoned across the top. If that was missed, the earlier searches were clearly negligent.

    Alternatively, and more concerning, the internal documents might have been removed from the folders and stored without cover. That would indicate someone removed and reviewed them — an act showing knowledge of the classified status. If they were removed at Biden’s residence, he would be the chief suspect in such use.

    It would utterly destroy the “inadvertence” defense.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 14:30

  • Musk Says ZeroHedge Did "Nothing Warranting Suspension" After 'Twitter Files' Expose Big Pharma Bullying
    Musk Says ZeroHedge Did “Nothing Warranting Suspension” After ‘Twitter Files’ Expose Big Pharma Bullying

    Today’s Twitter Files drop contains several notable pieces of evidence.

    First, that lobbyists for the pharmaceutical industry launched a ‘massive lobbying blitz to crush any effort to share patents/IP for new covid-related medicine,” according to The Intercept‘s Lee Fang. As part of this effort, lobbying group BIO “wrote to the newly elected Biden admin, demanding the U.S. gov sanction any country attempting to violate patent rights and create generic low cost covid medicine or vaccines.“

    Of note, Pfizer and BioNTech raked in $37 billion in revenue in 2021 alone from the COVID-19 vaccine, while Moderna made $17.7 billion the same year (and has recently announced a plan to hike the price of the Covid-19 vaccine by approximately 400%).

    BioNTech, which developed the Pfizer vaccine, “reached out to Twitter to request that Twitter directly censor users tweeting at them to ask for generic low cost vaccines.“

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    According to Fang, “Twitter’s reps responded quickly to the pharma request,” while “A lobbyist in Europe asked the content moderation team to monitor the accounts of Pfizer, AstraZeneca & of activist hashtags like #peoplesvaccine.”

    Meanwhile, the “fake accounts” flagged by the pharmaceutical companies for action were real people – one of whom Fang spoke with on the phone.

    “For more than two years, a global movement has been speaking out against pharmaceutical greed and demanding that everyone, everywhere has the tools to combat pandemics,” said Maaza Seyoum, a campaigner for the People’s Vaccine Alliance. “Whatever nasty tricks companies and governments pull,” she continued, “we cannot and will not be silenced.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsSecond, ‘Pfizer & Moderna’s lobbying group, BIO, fully funded a special content moderation campaign designed by a contractor called Public Good Projects (PGP), which worked w/Twitter to set content moderation rules around covid “misinformation.”‘ according to Fang.

    BIO funded the PGP campaign, “Stronger,”  to the tune of $1.275 million. Its focus? Helping Twitter ‘create content moderation bots,’ selecting which public health accounts would be verified, and helping to crowdsource content takedowns.

    Of note, the Moderna/Pfizer-funded campaign included regular emails to Twitter officals with takedown and verification requests.

    “Here’s an example of those types of emails that went straight to Twitter’s lobbyists and content moderators. Many focused on @zerohedge, which was suspended.“

    Fang includes a screencap of an email with two excel spreadsheets containing said requests.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsFrom Fang’s Intercept piece, below is one of the flagged tweets in question – which links to a ZeroHedge article aggregated from NakedCapitalism, and which logically posits; “if a vaccinated person and an unvaccinated person have roughly the same capacity to carry, shed and transmit the virus, particularly in its Delta form, what difference does implementing a vaccination passport actually make to the spread of the virus?”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “To try and stifle digital dissent during a pandemic, when tweets and emails are some of the only forms of protest available to those locked in their homes, is deeply sinister,” said Nick Dearden, director of Global Justice Now.

    More on one of the people behind this effort, courtesy of Twitter user @TexasLindsay_

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “To translate the above into layman’s terms she is a narrative enforcer. She’s funded by Big Pharma and aided by Big Brother to be the ministry of truth. She aims to create social norms by means of censorship and propaganda. She wants to tell you & I—how/what to say and think.“

    Meanwhile, as this bullying progressed this was happening…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Finally, as this latest ‘Twitter Files’ thread spreads across a holiday market, Elon Musk himself has opined on the efforts to bully the former Twitter executives into censoring ZeroHedge:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    We’ll take the ‘being jerks’ jab… isn’t that what the media is supposed to be?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 13:55

  • Peter Schiff: The Recession Everybody Denies Exists Is Going To Get Worse
    Peter Schiff: The Recession Everybody Denies Exists Is Going To Get Worse

    Via SchiffGold.com,

    Peter Schiff recently appeared on Dan Bongino’s Unfiltered on Fox News to talk about the economy, inflation, the stock market, the Federal Reserve and investing in 2023. Peter said the recession that everybody denies exists is going to get worse, and so is inflation.

    Some people in the mainstream seem to think a big stock market rally is in the cards. Peter said the optimism is unfounded.

    I don’t think it’s going to be a good year for the stock market. I think there are going to be some stocks that do well. Unfortunately, most Americans don’t own those stocks.”

    Peter said the ones that most investors do own are going to go down.

    The very popular stocks that a lot of people have crowded into during the bubble – these stocks, even though they’ve come down a lot in 2022, they still have a long way to fall. And I think there’s a lot of risk in 2023, not just in the market, but in the economy.”

    Bongino referenced an op-ed in the New York Post by Ken Fisher arguing that the bad news, especially in the job market, is already written into the script and priced into the market. That means we may well have a “summer of love” in the stock market with a healthy rebound. Peter said people are underestimating just how bad the news is going to get.

    First of all, a lot of people think inflation is going to come down. It’s not. I think the decline is what’s transitory. I think we’re going to be making new year-over-year highs in inflation before the end of the year.”

    Peter has been arguing that a declining dollar and an ultimate Fed pivot away from monetary tightening will mean more inflation down the road, even if we get some relief in the CPI over the next few months. He drove this point home in a recent podcast.

    That is the really important point that seems to be lost on everybody. What investors are trying to figure out is ‘has inflation peaked?’ Have we seen peak inflation? Now, I think the answer to that question is no. I don’t think inflation has peaked. Now, it may have peaked for a short period of time. It may take until the second half of 2023 before we get a year-over-year rate of inflation that was higher than the high water mark for 2022. Who knows? Maybe it will take into 2024. But the one thing that I’m certain of is that we’re not going anywhere near 2%. And that is what investors still don’t understand — that the days of low inflation are over, and we’re living in an era of high inflation. That is a complete game-changer for the Fed and the Fed has yet to come to terms with this new reality, nor has the market.”

    And during his discussion with Bongino, Peter said the notion the economy is about to rebound is nothing but a fantasy.

    The recession that everybody denies exists is actually going to get worse. So, we’re going to have a weaker economy and stronger inflation. The markets are not expecting that, and neither is the Fed.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 13:20

  • Republicans Call Out 'Double Standard' Over Biden Classified Docs Hypocrisy
    Republicans Call Out ‘Double Standard’ Over Biden Classified Docs Hypocrisy

    Congressional Republicans are crying foul over the double standard applied to President Biden’s mishandling of classified materials vs. the treatment former President Trump received.

    To review, President Biden’s lawyers – who didn’t have clearance to view classified documents, allegedly stumbled upon a cache of them at his old office at the Penn Biden Center on Nov. 2, 2022, the day before midterm elections. After waiting nearly two months, more documents were found on December 20, January 9 and January 12 – the date on which AG Merrick Garland finally appointed a special counsel to investigate.

    Trump, on the other hand, who has a potential constitutional argument that he could have declassified the documents recovered from his locked safe at his highly surveilled Mar-a-Lago residence, was treated to a raid by Biden’s DOJ

    “Where’s the raid of Biden’s garage?” asked House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA).

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “Now, we learn that Biden kept additional classified materials at his home in Delaware in his GARAGE. Yet there was no raid. No ransacking of Biden’s home. Nothing,” Rep. Dan Crenshaw tweeted, trying to get back in MAGA’s good graces.

    House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) called the situation “another faux pas by the Biden administration,” by “treating law differently based upon your political beliefs.”

    “That’s why we had to provide a new entity from our Church-style [committee] to look after the weaponization of what’s gone on that you want an equal playing of the law to all Americans.”

    McCarthy also pointed out the fact that officials have not released any photos of the documents recovered from Biden’s office and home. The Justice Department included a photo of materials retrieved from Trump’s residence in a court filing that was made public. –The Hill

    “More classified documents Biden took from the Obama White House have been found at Biden’s Delaware house next to his Corvette. Biden assures the public it’s OK because his garage is locked… So, when’s the FBI raid?” said Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) in a Thursday tweet.

    Trump was also ‘raided’ by the media, so to speak.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And crickets over Biden aside from scant cardboard reporting on the matter.

    In fact, CNN‘s Jake Tapper is earning his paycheck carrying water for the regime:

    Meanwhile, House Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-KY) has sent letters to the National Archives and the White House Counsel’s office requesting documents and communications pertaining to the classified materials, along with a request for information about the documents themselves and who may have been able to access them.

    And Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), the top GOP member of the House Intelligence Committee, sent AG Garland and DNI Avril Haines a request for a classified briefing about the documents.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 01/16/2023 – 12:45

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Jan 16

Today’s News 16th January 2023

  • Destroying American Democracy – An Inside Job
    Destroying American Democracy – An Inside Job

    Authored by Pete Hoekstra via The Gatestone Institute,

    Over the last few years, there has been much written about the destruction of American democracy. Frequently the threat has been of alleged interference in U.S. elections by Russia, China or other state actors. Government agencies, the name of election integrity, were assigned to identify and disrupt these foreign intrusions. As more and more information is revealed about these agencies, it seems that America’s Intelligence Community participated in these activities domestically, and in a way that poses a grave threat to both election integrity and American democracy.

    Just last week it was revealed that the FBI again withheld pertinent information from the American public, for past two months, until after the November 8, 2022 federal election. As with the Bureau’s reported cover-up of evidence influence-peddling reportedly found on Hunter Biden’s laptop, agents knew, since November 2, 2022, about at least some of the three sets of classified material that illegally found their way into the garage and library of President Joe Biden and into the Penn Biden Center think tank at the University of Pennsylvania — to which anonymous members of the Chinese Communist Party have donated $54.6 million.

    Their existence only became known this week, after the newly elected Republican-majority House of Representatives announced that it would hold hearings on “how the [Justice] department handled investigations into classified materials found at former President Donald Trump’s Florida home and those found at President Joe Biden’s office in a Washington think tank bearing his name and his Delaware home…”

    In addition, the recent release of the “Twitter Files” has raised at least two major concerns regarding actions by the Intelligence Community. The first is that the wall of separation between the Intelligence Community and the U.S. media has not only sprung a leak, it has totally collapsed. The report that officials from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) met weekly with Twitter executives to coordinate information is totally inappropriate. Would officials from the ODNI review, affirm or label certain sets of information as false? When ODNI was created, no one intended its officials to have a role in these types of discussions.

    It also appears that intelligence officials in recent years have politically weaponized intelligence. The combination of a politically weaponized Intelligence Community, operating hand-in-hand with organizations that are the main gateways for information to millions of Americans, poses a serious threat to American democracy and the integrity of our elections.

    Let us just briefly look at the steep slope of lying, deceit and corruption that has seeped into the leadership of the U.S. Intelligence Community.

    First, there are not enough words to praise our Intelligence Community and the men and women who risk their lives to keep America safe. These are the rank-and-file professionals that form the core of the Intelligence Community. Most are dedicated to the mission of gathering the necessary information to protect our nation. Their leaders have a responsibility to serve these individuals. Too often, however, as the current array of whistleblowers indicates, those leaders have let these individuals down.

    Imagine their reaction in 2013 when, in response to a question from Senator Ron Wyden to then-Director of National Intelligence (DNI) James Clapper about whether the National Security Agency (NSA) collects “any type of data on millions, or hundreds of millions of Americans,” Clapper answered, “No sir, not wittingly.” Clapper, who had been given the question the previous day, was asked after the hearing if he wanted to amend the answer, and declined. It was shortly thereafter that a massive NSA program containing millions of pieces of Americans’ data was revealed. Clapper was caught in a huge lie — to U.S. Senator Wyden and the American people.

    On January 12, 2017, CNN reported that President-elect Donald Trump had been briefed by DNI Clapper, FBI Director James Comey, CIA Director John Brennan, and NSA Director Michael Rogers. The topic: “Russian operatives claim to have compromising personal and financial information about Donald Trump.” It was intended to inform the President-elect that these allegations “are circulating among intelligence agencies, senior members of Congress, and other government officials in Washington.” The briefing also touched on other major allegations they claimed were “circulating.”

    Having this false information — some of which the FBI actually altered — in the public domain was evidently intended to damage Trump. The Russian “hoax” allegations would haunt and damage the Trump presidency for almost two years. Clapper himself stated:

    “I express my profound dismay at the leaks that have been appearing in the press … they are extremely corrosive and damaging to our national security.”

    Clapper also released a statement that neither he nor anyone else in the Intelligence Community were responsible for the leaks. How did this highly classified information, then, get into the public domain?

    A House Republican investigation provides the answer. Clapper denied leaking the dossier but admitted to discussing the dossier with CNN correspondent Jake Tapper and perhaps other journalists in early January 2017. Later in 2017, Clapper would go on to join CNN as a “national security” contributor and CNN would receive an award for its reporting at the White House Correspondents’ dinner.

    Today we know that the “Russia hoax” was a lie. After a 22-month investigation, no evidence of collusion between any element of the Trump campaign and Russia was uncovered. The supposedly compromising evidence had never existed; the information in the “Steele dossier” was false — and the FBI had known it was from the start. The entire fabrication had been an attempt to attack and politically weaken Trump.

    In October 2020, shortly before the elections 51 former intelligence professionals had even signed a joint letter stating that the Hunter Biden laptop had “has all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.” They stated that their national security experience made them “deeply suspicious that the Russian government played a significant role in this case.” They went on:

    “If we are right, this is Russia trying to influence how Americans vote in this election, and we strongly believe that Americans need to be aware of this.”

    The New York Times raised questions about the authenticity of the materials found on the laptop. Bill Evanina, the National Counterintelligence and Security Center Director, had indicated in August that Russia was trying to denigrate the Biden campaign. All these manufactured “facts” were apparently intended to create circumstances where reasonable people would have to conclude that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation.

    Signatories of the 2020 letter included Clapper, Brennan, Michael Hayden, Jeremy Bash and David Buckley. Clapper and Brennan are familiar names. They were involved in the January 2017 briefing to President Donald Trump on the fake Steele dossier. Jeremy Bash and David Buckley are worth mentioning because they continue to play significant roles in domestic and national security areas in the U.S. government. Buckley was the majority staff director on the House Select Committee investigating January 6th. Bash has been named to co-chair a government commission to review the war in Afghanistan.

    The fraudulent efforts by the U.S. government, Clapper, Brennan and the 49 others — along with Hillary Clinton, her campaign committee, the Democratic National Committee and the suppression of the media and social media (here and here) — to influence the public unfortunately met with some success. For almost two years, the authenticity of the material found on Hunter Biden’s laptop was questioned. Today, its authenticity has been verified; the information is real and damning. As summarized by the New York Post:

    “Yes that letter from the Dirty 51 had all the classic earmarks of a disinformation operation, all right – one designed to ensure Joe Biden won the presidency. And it was essentially a CIA operation, considering 43 of the 51 signatories were former CIA.”

    One final example of the Intelligence Community involving itself in domestic politics comes from the recent release of the “Twitter Files.” According to tweet #20 of the third tranche released:

    “This post about the Hunter Biden laptop situation shows that Roth not only met weekly with the FBI and DHS, but with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.”

    Tweet #17 states: “executives were also clearly liaising with federal enforcement and intelligence agencies about moderation of election-related content.”

    Finally, the FBI paid Twitter $3.5 million reportedly to “handle requests from the bureau.”

    We now know what happened. Twitter suppressed discussion of the Hunter Biden laptop story and suppressed conservative messaging, while at the same time it appears the FBI, DHS and the ODNI had literally had set up shop at Twitter.

    The American people should be outraged. This level of collaboration between federal law enforcement and a private sector company on controlling speech is terrifying. Having our Intelligence Community, which is supposed to be focused on foreign intelligence collection, involved is even more terrifying.

    DNI James Clapper lying to the American people in 2013 about government surveillance of them, the promoting of the Russian hoax theory in 2017 by CIA Director Brennan, DNI Clapper, FBI Director Comey and others, the suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop story by 51 former intelligence professionals, and the close working arrangement between the FBI, DHS and the ODNI in 2020-2022 raises a staggering series of questions:

    • Can our government, law enforcement, and the Intelligence Community still be trusted?

    • Have those federal government agencies literally weaponized law enforcement and intelligence against political opponents in the U.S.?

    • Has more than one solitary person — former FBI attorney Kevin Clinemith, for altering an email — been held accountable for these egregious abuses of power?

    • Why wasn’t there a more powerful response from the Intelligence Community and the law enforcement community about the disinformation from the 51 former intelligence professionals?

    • Who authorized the cozy relationship between law enforcement, the intelligence community with Twitter?

    • Who in these government agencies reviewed and approved of the output and decisions coming from these joint efforts?

    • Were political appointees in the review loop?

    • Who has the records, notes and decisions that emanated from these groups?

    It is clear that our law enforcement community needs to be investigated, but most importantly we need to investigate how our Intelligence Community has evolved from having literally a non-existent relationship with speech in America to being inside the room determining what speech is allowed.

    There also needs to be a significant investigation by an outside, non-government group to understand how far this massive government overreach into free speech and election manipulation went.

    Clearly the government has been influencing what we get to see and hear. It needs to stop — now — before our democracy is destroyed.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 23:30

  • Visualizing The Changing World Population, By Country
    Visualizing The Changing World Population, By Country

    On average, there are 250 babies born every minute around the world. As Visual Capitalist’s Freny Fernandes details below, this adds up to over 130 million new human beings entering the world every year.

    Then it’s no surprise that the world’s population, which now stands at a whopping 8 billion, has more than tripled since the mid-20th century.

    This graphic by Truman Du uses December 2022 population data from the UN and summaries from the French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) to show the unequal rise and fall of the world’s population by 2050.

    Let’s take a closer look at some of these population trends.

    Most Populous Countries: 2022 vs. 2050

    The Asian countries of India and China have topped the rankings of the world’s most populous countries for hundreds of years.

    China currently holds the number one spot on this list. But the population of India is expected to surpass that of China’s by later this year, eventually reaching a total of 1.67 billion in 2050.

    The United States, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Indonesia are the next most populous countries in 2022, and they are expected to hold onto these spots until 2050. However, they have a long way to go before catching up with the top two, as their combined population doesn’t add up to half that of India and China’s total.

    Interestingly, it is estimated that Nigeria’s population will shoot up to 375 million by 2050, almost matching the population of the United States. In 2022, the African country’s population was just around 219 million. This expected spike is largely due to a high birth rate and booming economy, and the resultant rural-to-urban migration.

    Countries with Declining Populations

    While many countries will be seeing their populations boom over the next three decades, other nations such as China are expected to experience the opposite.

     

    Several countries in the world are expected to see their populations decline over the next 30 years. And the main reason for this: extremely low birth rates.

    South Korea, which has the world’s lowest fertility rate, is expected to see a sharp decline of almost 12% in its population as it falls to 46 million by 2050.

    Changing world population trends like this can pose challenges for economies around the world, such as labor shortages, aging populations, and an increasing financial burden on younger generations.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 23:00

  • The Importance Of Being Biden: How Hunter Reached New Low Seeking To Bar Daughter From Using His Name
    The Importance Of Being Biden: How Hunter Reached New Low Seeking To Bar Daughter From Using His Name

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    In Oscar Wilde’s “The Importance of Being Ernest,” the main character’s search for his true name comes to a head when he finally demands “would you kindly inform me who I am?” In an astonishing filing this week, Hunter Biden answered that question for his four-year-old daughter Navy Joan and effectively declared “you are no Biden.”

    Hunter Biden’s disgraceful treatment of his daughter has long been on display in Arkansas where he long denied being her father, fought paternity, and was threatened with contempt of court over his failure to supply needed documents. After DNA testing was forced by a court, Hunter was found to be the father but he continued to resist efforts to force him to pay child support and supply financial records.

    Recently, Lunden Roberts sought to have a surname change for her daughter to Biden. Even after his long and abusive treatment of his daughter in court, Hunter Biden’s opposition is breathtaking.  He opposes his daughter using his name and says that, if she does, she will never have a “peaceful existence.”

    Of course, Biden did not feel that way with his other four children. They are all true Bidens and living peaceful existences. It is only Navy Joan who he does not want to bear the family name.

    Hunter’s concern for Navy Joan’s peaceful existence is a bit odd since he has reportedly never even seen his daughter after fighting for years to deny his paternal status and child support.

    While living in a luxurious mansion in Malibu, Hunter continued to fight his obligations under child support and requested in September 2022 to have the payments lowered, bemoaning how his “financial circumstances” were difficult for him.  The public pays more for his security in his mansion than he does in monthly support for his daughter.

    Hunter is asking Circuit Court Judge Holly Meyer to deny Navy Joan the ability to use her father’s surname and claiming that it is in her best interest. The filing is so self-serving and transparently dishonest that it does what was once thought impossible: reach a new low for Hunter. All of his reported selfies having sex and doing drugs with prostitutes were shocking. His attacks on his former sister-in-law, Hallie Biden, widow of the deceased brother (with whom Hunter later had a romantic relationship), were appalling. However, the craven effort to deny this child his name reaches a level of cad that stands unrivaled.

    The position of Hunter in court has been disgraceful, but the media has largely ignored the matter. It has also ignored the utter lack of support from President Joe Biden and the First Lady, who tellingly omitted a stocking for Navy Joan as one of their grandchildren. (The dog and cat did receive stockings). There is no record that Joe or Jill Biden have ever sought to meet, let alone embrace, their grandchild. The President has, however, sought to deny the child security protection (despite his son’s concern for her “peaceful existence”).

    Joe Biden has long campaigned against “deadbeat Dads” but when a Fox reporter asked about Hunter’s refusal to pay child support, President Biden snapped at him and refused to answer the question on the “personal matter.” (The media also ignored Hunter’s deadbeat dad record in fawning interviews about this “bravery” in writing a book on his life).

    The obvious effort of the Biden family in this filing is to preserve distance from this child. The legal standard for a name change in Arkansas has been based on the “best interests of the child,” not the political interest of the father and his family. Indeed, historically, Arkansas courts followed a presumption in favor of a child have the surname of its father.

    More recently, the Arkansas Supreme Court in Huffman v. Fisher laid out various factors to balance including (1) the child’s preference; (2) the effect on the child’s relationship with each parent; (3) the length of time that the child has borne the prior surname; (4) the community respect for the rivaling surnames; (5) the social difficulties that could arise from the adoption of the new surname; and (6) the presence of any parental misconduct or neglect.

    The petition is based on the best interest of the child.  Roberts’ lawyer claims that the Biden name is “now synonymous with being well educated, successful, financially acute, and politically powerful.” The “financially acute” part did jump out for many of us who have followed Hunter Biden’s scandals for years.  The Bidens have certainly made themselves wealthy during Joe Biden’s time in office. However, they are synonymous not with financial acuity but influence peddling. While influence peddling has long been the leading industry in Washington, the Bidens have long taken it to levels unimagined by other powerful families with millions in windfall payments from foreign sources, including some connected to foreign intelligence operations.

    Nevertheless, the child is clearly better off with the Biden surname, particularly in establishing the very connection that Hunter, Joe, and Jill Biden seem committed to conceal or ignore.  Navy Joan is the grandchild of the 47th President of the United States. That alone makes the change beneficial. Navy Joan will be able to benefit from the cache of that connection in applying to college, seeking employment, and other pursuits. It also establishes (despite the efforts of the Bidens) that she is part of the family’s legacy.

    Joe Biden often talks about his Irish roots and his family tree. The familial legacy also includes Navy Joan. Those are her relatives even if they refuse to recognize or embrace her.

    There is no real doubt about the best interests of his child in his filing.  For their part, the Bidens have made it clear what is in their best interest. It is not this child. The court should make fast work of this petition and change Navy Joan’s surname to Biden. That will not make the family more loving or supportive or accepting. She will have to eventually deal emotionally with this latest effort to conceal her true identity.

    Yet, she is a Biden and could easily prove the best of the lot.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 22:30

  • How Long Is Compulsory Military Service?
    How Long Is Compulsory Military Service?

    Taiwan is extending its mandatory military service in 2024 from four months to one year, as tensions continue to rise with China. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen announced early last week that conscription will include more intense training so that the country is better equipped should China invade. Conscripts will also receive a higher monthly stipend, increasing from NT$6,500 (US$211) to NT$26,307 (US$856), which is roughly akin to minimum wage. In a poll conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation in December, 73 percent of respondents supported the move.

    Fewer than 30 countries worldwide still require whole age cohorts to complete military service. But, as Statista’s Anna Fleck details below, among those that do, four months is a relatively short period of time. Taiwan had originally stipulated two years of service, however this was gradually cut down to four months as of 2013, with the intention of relying more heavily on volunteer forces instead.

    As Statista’s chart shows, North Korea stands at the other end of the spectrum in terms of duration, although media reports vary. The Guardian reported 10 years for men and 7 for women as of 2015, while the Indian Express puts the figures closer to 8 years for men and 5 for women. According to media reports, those in the elite class are usually able to avoid conscription.

    Infographic: How Long Is Compulsory Military Service? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Israel too has a fairly long and rigorous conscription, albeit far shorter than North Korea. Most Israeli men over the age of 18 who are Jewish, Druze or Circassian must serve in the Israel Defense Forces for 32 months and women for 24 months, according to the IDF. Meanwhile, in Egypt, conscription is compulsory for men aged between 18 and 30 for up to 36 months. As with several countries on the chart, service can be pushed back until students finish their studies and there are a number of clauses that exempt men from joining the forces, for example, if they are the only son/sole breadwinner of the family.

    South Korea, which is technically still at war with North Korea, also has mandatory conscription for all able-bodied men for a period of 18 months to 21 months, depending on the posting. Some athletes and classical artists are allowed to postpone or forgo the draft entirely. The K-Pop group BTS brought the issue to light recently, with debate over whether they could be excused from service. The decision was made that men can delay their military draft until the age of 28 and those working in the entertainment industry are now allowed to postpone their service until they turn 30. The oldest member of BTS, Jin, has now started his mandatory draft.

    There’s huge variation in the rules for how long citizens must join the military in the countries that still have mandatory conscription as well as possible reasons for exemptions. For instance, in Turkey, new laws introduced in 2019 decreed that instead of the mandatory six months of military training, conscripts could do one month and buy-out the remaining five months for a fee of 31,000 Turkish Lira ($1,651), according to the Australian Government’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Conscripts’ levels of higher education can also impact the type and length of their post.

    Punishments for not enlisting vary too. In Eritrea, anyone evading or attempting to evade compulsory military service could face imprisonment of one to three years. According to DFAT, this could increase to 7-10 years imprisonment in a time of emergency or war.

    While most countries with conscription only draft men, a handful of countries including North Korea, Israel, Norway, Sweden, Eritrea and Mozambique conscript women too.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 22:00

  • Japan's Experts Baffled By High 'COVID Deaths' Despite High Vaccination Rate
    Japan’s Experts Baffled By High ‘COVID Deaths’ Despite High Vaccination Rate

    Authored by Guy Gin via ‘Making (COVID) Waves In Japan’ Substack,

    After three booster campaigns in 2022, the Japanese are now in a league of their own among mRNA consuming countries, administering far more boosters than countries that had far more coercive vax campaigns.

    Japanese over 65 have done their best to reduce Japan’s 612-million-dose stockpile of mRNA jabs, with 3rd, 4th, and 5th jab rates of 91%, 82.5%, and 56%, respectively. But unfortunately, Japan has started 2023 by reporting its highest ever daily Covid death tolls. During the booster era starting in early 2022, each wave has been noticeably higher than the last.

    What could possibly explain this? Let’s ask Takaji Wakita, chairman of Japan’s Covid Response Advisory Board.

    The cause of the rise in Covid deaths is *hard to explain.*

    What about Dr Satoshi Kamayachi, director of the Japan Medical Association?

    JMA director on increased Covid deaths: “There’s a lot we don’t know, and we don’t have evidence.”

    Nice to see an expert admit the limit of his knowledge. But there must be something Dr Kamayachi can tell us, right?

    Dr Kamayachi, citing the rapid spread of Covid infections as one reason, explained that the majority of those who died were over 60 and many had underlying medical conditions. The direct cause of death is often heart failure or kidney disease, and he said that “thorough analysis is needed.”

    Heart failure, you say? Well, it’s not like most Japanese over 60 have been injected multiple times with anything that causes cardiovascular problems, is it? And kidney disease is coincidentally a side-effect of Remdesivir, an approved Covid treatment in Japan.

    Of course, Japan has been counting anyone who dies with a positive test result as a Covid death regardless of actual cause of death since 2020, but Dr Kamayachi and the rest of Japan’s experts haven’t bothered bringing up the issue of attribution until now. In fact, they were more than happy to cite inflated mortality data to help promote the jabs. But now that people may question why daily reported Covid deaths are higher than ever after the majority of over 65s have taken the experts’ advice to get multiple boosters, underlying medical conditions can apparently be discussed.

    But although he’s three years late, Dr Kamayachi has a point. Although reported Covid deaths have been much higher in the booster era, far fewer Covid cases have been receiving mechanical ventilation (the gray line shows the number of ventilators/ECMO secured for Covid patients).

    But even if hardly any of them have been struggling for breath on mechanical ventilation, Japan’s elderly have been dying in higher than expected numbers in the booster era. The national figures for December won’t be out until late Feb, but Yokohama (Japan’s second largest city) has already releases its all-cause death numbers for 2022. Somehow I doubt Dr Kamayachi will call for a “thorough analysis” to find out the cause of the increase since August.

    All-cause deaths in Yokohama 2016-2022

    Although there’s no good news here for Japan’s vaxed-to-the-max elderly, there is for Japan’s medical establishment: high numbers of Covid deaths mean the publicly funded Covid gravy train will keep going. From The Nikkei.

    On 11th Jan, experts offered their views on reclassifying Covid-19 under the Infectious Diseases Act. In light of the current situation where the number of reported Covid deaths per day is the highest ever, the experts called for the government to continue to provide a certain amount of financial support to cover treatment and hospitalization costs and for securing hospital beds.

    Basically, the government’s selected experts, including Dr. Wakita above, recommend that Covid should be downgraded “gradually”, i.e., medical costs should continue to be covered by public funds rather than health insurance/out-of-pocket payments like every other medical condition. This might seem reasonable. But under the current scheme of Covid support payments, hospitals can be paid ¥436,000 (US$3,370) per day to “secure” a single ICU bed regardless of whether anyone is in it. And overpriced Covid treatments include glorified cold medications like Shinogi’s Xocova.

    So let’s recap what the experts have told us.

    The cause of increased Covid deaths? “Dunno.”

    Should the government keep showering medical institutions and pharma companies with money? “Absolutely!”

    Well, what were you expecting them to say?

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 21:30

  • House GOP Bill Would Order Federal Workers Back To Office
    House GOP Bill Would Order Federal Workers Back To Office

    House Republicans have introduced a bill that would command legions of federal employees to stop teleworking and return to the office. 

    The Stopping Home Office Work’s Unproductive Problems Act — or “SHOW UP Act” — was introduced by Kentucky Rep. James Comer, who chairs the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability. 

    “Americans have suffered from the federal government’s detrimental pandemic-era telework policies for federal bureaucrats,” said Comer. “President Biden’s unnecessary expansion of telework crippled the ability of departments and agencies to fulfill their responsibilities and created cumbersome backlogs.”

    The bill gives federal employees who worked in person prior to the pandemic 30 days to get back to the office. A November Federal News Network survey found that 60% of feds were working in a “hybrid” environment, with a third working entirely remotely.  

    Kentucky Rep. James Comer says it’s time for federal employees to return to their offices (Tom Williams/Pool via AP and WBKO)

    Comer says Oversight Committee members have received whistleblower reports indicating that General Service Administration’s (GSA) chief Robin Carnahan has spent the majority of her time away from Washington, DC.   

    The SHOW UP Act would also direct federal agencies to study the impact of tele-work on their missions and report their findings to Congress. “The federal government’s expansion of telework during the pandemic has delayed critical assistance to veterans, tax refunds, passport applications, and other basic services,” said Comer’s office.

    Agencies would also have to provide data on locality pay received by federal employees — who may not actually be spending much time in that locality at all. 

    Locality pay is a substantial layer of compensation that’s added to federal employees’ base pay. As the name implies, it varies depending on where the job is located. The 2022 default locality pay for areas of the country without a customized percentage was 16.5% of base pay.

    However, in Washington DC, it’s a whopping 32.49% of base pay. For 2003, employees in the DC locality received one of the largest locality-pay hikes: 4.86%.  

    The SHOW UP Act alludes to an important question: How many purported Washington DC federal employees are receiving enormous locality pay while living somewhere else and phoning it in? That question isn’t only relevant for DC: The same dynamic would apply federal employees in other localities who’ve left the big city to go live cheap somewhere else and only visit the office when required.  

    In 2021, the federal Office of Personnel Management said employees in “remote work” arrangements — a permanent arrangement with no expectation of coming to the office — should receive locality pay based on their remote location.

    Things get murkier, though, where flexible “telework” is concerned. Telework usually requires reporting in-person twice every two weeks…unless that requirement is waived. Teleworking feds’ locality pay is determined by the office location, not their home. 

    To that point, the SHOW UP Act says agencies must analyze costs attributable to “paying higher rates of locality pay to teleworking employees as a result of incorrectly classifying such employees as teleworkers rather than remote workers.” 

    DC Mayor Muriel Bowser says empty federal office buildings are hurting the city (Mayor’s office photo)

    It isn’t just Republicans who are itching to get federal employees out of their pajamas and back to work. Earlier this month, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser urged President Biden to kill the liberal telework policies that have left many office buildings nearly vacant, with corresponding impacts on the city economy. Otherwise, she wants government offices repurposed. 

    The SHOW UP Act, which has no future in a Democrat-controlled Senate, would bolster her case: It commands agencies to assess the cost of “owning, leasing or maintaining under-utilized real property.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 21:00

  • The Benefits Of A Savings Culture & The Future Role Of China's Yuan
    The Benefits Of A Savings Culture & The Future Role Of China’s Yuan

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    Savings are a vital component of any successful economy, and the foolishness behind the paradox of thrift is exposed in this article. It has been a huge error for Keynesian policy makers to discourage savings in the interests of temporary boosts to consumerism.

    It is probably too late now but encouraging people to save by removing all taxation from savings makes an enormous contribution to reducing price inflation and trade deficits, while enhancing national wealth. This is evidenced empirically and demonstrated by reasoned theory. 

    Furthermore, there is an error in assuming that there is no alternative to Triffin’s dilemma, which posited that for a nation to produce a meaningful level of reserve currency for external circulation it must run trade deficits. Triffin was describing the problems the United States gave itself under the Bretton Woods agreement, leading to the failure of the London gold pool in the late sixties. It still informs US policy makers today, and wrongly leads American commentators to believe that the dollar cannot be toppled from its pre-eminent position.

    But Triffin’s dilemma assumes that central banks must accumulate currency reserves. Unless a government has foolishly indebted itself in a foreign currency, there is no need for them to do so. Currency reserves add nothing to a domestic currency’s stability. Gold fulfilled this role successfully, and likely to do so again in future.

    It is a savings ratio of 45% which is at the root of China’s power. The lack of savings in America and its western alliance is their Achilles heel.

    Empirical evidence

    If there was one taxation policy which would reduce consumer price inflation, stabilise a fiat currency, encourage capital allocation for productive purposes, and improve government finances for the longer-term, what would it be?

    Remove all taxes from savings.

    This is the lesson from past-war West Germany and Japan, both of which suffered absolute defeat and economic destruction in the Second World War. Their currencies were worthless. But they recovered to become economic powerhouses in Europe and Asia respectively in little more than two decades. Both implemented savings-friendly taxation policies, which made capital available at stable interest rates for new industries to invest in production. Germany developed its Mittelstand, and Japan built on her vertically integrated Zaibatsu.

    Germany was fortunate in its Economy Minister, Ludwig Erhard. A free marketeer who on 20 June 1948 took the bull by the horns, Erhard unilaterally ended rationing on the same day as the new mark was introduced, presenting it as a fait accompli to the military governors in the British and American zones. In a week, shops had begun to reopen, and goods became widely available.

    In negotiations with the military governors, Erhard managed to obtain income tax concessions for savings, which through the banking system were invested making capital available for private sector reconstruction. While he struggled against both military governments in the two zones to retain lower taxes and for favourable treatment for savings into the 1950s, Erhard had laid the foundations for a savings driven, free market economy. By the 1980s, the only tax on savings was a 10% withholding tax on bank interest and bond coupons, which was not generally pursued by the German tax authorities in the knowledge that attempts to do so would simply drive savings beyond their reach into Luxembourg and Zurich.

    For this reason, Germany remained a savings driven economy with a strong currency right up to the mark’s incorporation in the new euro. Much to the confusion of British and American neo-Keynesians subscribing to their cherished savings paradox, Germany became the wealthiest of the European nations, other than perhaps Switzerland. In both cases, hard currencies accompanied wealth creation.

    Erhard’s post-war opposition was principally from General Sir Brian Robertson, the head of the British occupation government, and from the French. The commander of the American occupation zone, General Lucius Clay was more sympathetic with free market solutions. The Americans had promoted A Plan for the Liquidation of War Finance and Financial Rehabilitation of Germany (1946), written at Clay’s behest, one of the co-authors being Joseph Dodge. In 1949, Dodge was then appointed to advise the Japanese government on its post-war reconstruction as an aide to General MacArthur. And Dodge was instrumental in ensuring that up to a certain level, post office savings accounts were entirely tax free. It was probably a deliberate oversight on his part, but the tax law didn’t stop an account holder merely opening another savings account when the tax-free limit on an existing account was reached.

    Dodge implemented what became known as “The Dodge Line”. By insisting on a balanced national budget and shutting down the printing presses, he ended hyperinflation. The exchange rate between the yen and the dollar stabilised. Government economic intervention and interference was slashed across the board. Echoing John Cowperthwaite’s free market policies in Hong Kong, Dodge realised that the best economic progress was obtained by eliminating state interference, leaving it to Japan’s businessmen and entrepreneurs who, despite the war, retained the skills and connections to run their businesses. With MacArthur’s support, he ruthlessly eliminated subsidies and price controls. Dodge was eventually recalled to America, becoming Truman’s Director of the Budget where in the space of only a year he had cut the US federal deficit in half.

    Dodge’s free market approach was supplemented by the assistance of another American adviser, W Edwards Denning. Denning introduced quality control techniques to Japanese manufacturing which revolutionised production. As a consequence of Denning’s contribution, Japan rapidly evolved from a source of shoddy goods into a producer of the best consumer technology and the manufacture of world-beating high quality consumer goods.

    Behind this revolution was the tax incentive to save – a simple approach of assuming that taxed earnings put aside should not be taxed again. In both Germany and Japan, these were not the only factors that led to a successful emergence from total desolation, but they are the elements that ensured that both nations continued to flourish. And in Japan, despite the government fully embracing Keynesian philosophy in the wake of the late-eighties speculative bubble, the savings culture of “Mrs Watanabe, the Japanese housewife” persists to this day.

    After his stint in Japan and while Joe Dodge worked his budget magic for Truman, the British were going in the opposite direction, eschewing free markets, embracing Keynesianism, persisting with rationing until 1954, and imposing punitive taxes on savings. The decline of post-war Britain and much of Europe need not enter our narrative, but it was a feature of all nations which implemented economic policies of taxing savings.

    The theory behind savings

    The empirical evidence is clear. Since the Second World War, economies that embraced free markets and the role of personal savings outperformed those which saw savings as an easy source of tax revenue. Furthermore, we can easily explain why free markets succeed in creating wealth for all, while a state directed economy is anti-progress. It was demonstrated by the Austrian economist, Ludwig von Mises, who in an essay written in 1920 explained the futility of central planning due to a lack of the ability to perform economic calculation. Admittedly, he compared the full-blown socialism which Russia had embraced with free markets. But his conclusions, that the state is unable to allocate economic resources including capital as efficiently as profit-seeking capitalists applies equally to less aggressive forms of socialism.

    In a free market economy, individuals are compelled to make provision for the unknown vagaries of the future. Often through the medium of insurance policies and pension plans, they put aside a portion of their income to protect themselves from the financial consequences of ill-health and incapacity, provide for their old age, and to ensure there is something to pass on to their heirs. If the circulating medium is sound, no financial skill is required to preserve the value of savings in these arrangements and in the form of bank deposits. Within the limits of their acumen, those with some financial knowledge can venture into other forms of savings, such as bonds issued by their government agencies and corporations and even to acquire equity interests in ventures.

    As always, investors with skill and knowledge will improve their position relative to those less financially literate, which is anathema to redistributors of wealth. But the corruption of the value of credit that goes with monetary intervention by the state impoverishes those who lack investing skills most, always the poorest in society. It stands to reason therefore, that an economy that benefits most from the savings of the masses must protect the value of credit.

    The Keynesian revolution rode roughshod over this issue. Keynes dismissed capitalist savers as rentiers, a term with emotive connotations suggesting that they are workshy and greedy only for interest on their capital. His academic environment at Cambridge and afterwards the Bloomsbury set in London was certainly populated with these flaneurs. But this was not representative of the wider population which was to be deprived by his desire for the euthanasia of the rentier expressed openly in his General Theory.

    So it was that Keynes came up with the paradox of thrift, while he was working his way towards discarding Say’s law to justify his General Theory. In Chapter 23, he takes preceding crackpot theories on the subject as evidence of the destruction wrought by saving. Earlier in Chapter 3, on Observations of the Nature of Capital, he claimed that excess savings could lead to “the fate of Midas…  assuming that the propensity to consume and the rate of interest are not deliberately controlled in the social interest but are left mainly to the influences of laissez-faire”. In working his way towards a role for the state, which appears to be his objective here, Keynes makes a number of errors, the principal ones being glossing over the role of bank credit (there is only one indexed reference to credit, commercial bank or otherwise in the whole book!), and whether it is the borrower or lender who sets the rate of interest. To be absolutely certain of the role of savings in an economy, and as to whether there can be an excess leading to the fate of Midas, we must explore Keynes’s errors further.

    Variations in the rate of interest are not due to the ephemeral dispositions of rentiers but in large part to fluctuations in the supply of bank credit. It is the expansion of bank credit which leads to an economic boom, which when it leads to excessive demand and speculation by driving up prices engenders caution in the banker’s mind. Naturally, he then restricts the supply of credit, which raises the interest cost. This is why the cycle of bank credit would never permit “the fate of Midas” to occur. Clearly, Keynes’s conclusion that there can be a savings glut is based on his wilful ignorance of the nature of money and credit.[iii]

    Furthermore, Keynes’s basic assumption, that it is the greed of the rentier which forces an unnecessary and arguably immoral cost onto production is also incorrect. It is the same error that leads monetary policy makers today to assume that by manipulating the interest rate the general level of prices can be controlled. It was Keynes himself who earlier noted this error, which he named Gibson’s paradox after Arthur Gibson, who pointed out the lack of correlation between the two. Because Keynes was unable to explain the paradox, he simply proceeded as if it did not exist, and so has every monetary policy committee ever since.

    The paradox is real, and the explanation is simple, falling into two elements. The first is that savers are generally reluctant to save, because it means a deferment of consumption, an immediate satisfaction being exchanged for one in the future of less certain value. Therefore, a business requiring capital for production must bid up the rate of interest it is prepared to pay to a level where the consumer is willing to defer his enjoyment. It is this marginal rate that balances the demands for capital with the availability of savings in an economy. And it is not just a question of setting the rate of interest for recycling credit through the banks’ balance sheets. It sets the rates of return for all financial assets as well and the cost of funding for their issuers.

    The second element is the time-preference for which savers will naturally expect compensation. Time preference describes the value of possession of money or money substitutes. A saver loses the value of possession until his money or credit for money is returned. For simplicity’s sake, we must ignore counterparty risk but include expectations of changes in the purchasing power in the circulating media for the time that possession is lost.

    It becomes clear that if a potential saver is to part with possession of money or credit when the evidence points to its debasement, he will reasonably seek compensation. Therefore, for the saver interest rates are not the cost of money which he demands, except in a strictly minimally additional and marginal sense. For a central bank to assume that by varying the underlying rate of interest it can control the economy is therefore incorrect. Central banks have it the wrong way round, which explains why there is no correlation between their interest rate setting and the rate of price inflation. 

    Furthermore, Gibson pointed out that the correlation was between interest rates and the general level of wholesale prices, and not their rate of change. This correlation is consistent with a businessman’s economic calculation: in order to calculate the profitability of an investment, he must consider the price he will expect for his production, by necessity always referring to current levels. He can then calculate the interest cost he is prepared to pay to secure the capital necessary for his project, and therefore assess its profitability.

    The hope harboured by Keynes, that the state can stimulate the economy at the expense of savings beyond the very short term is incorrect. His paradox of thrift, which Keynes used to try to dissuade a propensity to save, was a conclusion drawn from these errors. They are in large part responsible for the plight in which the US, the UK, and various member states of the EU now find themselves. 

    Savings in the context of national finances

    More than any other factor, the propensity to save is a major influence on national finances, being a “swing factor” between a government’s budget and the national trade position.

    There is an important question most analysts ignore. It is the twin deficit hypothesis, whereby if the savings rate doesn’t change, a budget deficit leads to a matching trade deficit.  The reason the two deficits are linked in this way is because of the following national accounting identity:

    (Imports – Exports) ≡ (Investment – Savings) + (Government spending – Taxes)

    In other words, a trade deficit is the result of a budget deficit not funded by savings but by additional credit. This can be confirmed by following the money. For a budget deficit, there are only two sources of funding. Consumers put aside some of their spending to increase their savings in order to subscribe for government bonds. Otherwise, the banking system comes up with funding in the form of credit issued by the central bank or by commercial banks, putting additional credit into circulation which didn’t exist before.

    The financing of a budget deficit by credit expansion leads to excess credit in an economy without matching production. This is the point behind Say’s law, which defines the division of labour. We produce to consume, and the function of money and credit is one of intermediation between the two. Injecting extra credit into an economy does nothing to raise production, but it does increase overall demand, at least until it is absorbed into the economy in accordance with the Cantillon effect.

    Directly or indirectly, this excess demand can only be satisfied by imported consumer goods, because an increase in domestic production is unavailable. 

    The role of savings in the context of national finances is very important. An increase in savings is at the expense of consumption, which is why economists often refer to savings as consumption deferred. For consumption to remain deferred requires it to be invested, either into production or government debt usually through the banks, pension funds, insurance companies or other financial channels acting on the savers’ behalf.

    If the destination of additional savings is investment in government debt, they are turned into consumption by the government. By not being spent on additional consumer goods, the trade deficit falls relative to the budget deficit. 

    As noted above, despite the destructive Keynesian policies of its government, Japanese savers habitually respond to an increase in credit by retaining it in their savings accounts. Consequently, consumer price inflation is subdued, relative to that in other countries. While the Eurozone has employed similar interest rate policies and is suffering CPI-recorded debasement of over 10%, in Japan it is about 4%. As we note below, in China whose savings ratio is 45%, CPI measured inflation is currently less than 2%.

    The deployment of capital by Japan’s corporations, which is the counterpart of increased savings, is invested in improvements in technology and production methods, keeping consumer prices lower than they would otherwise be. Because Japanese savers are so consistent in their savings culture, Japanese corporations have benefitted from a relatively low and stable cost of capital, making business calculation more reliable. For Japan, savings are the positive swing factor in the twin deficit hypothesis.

    The same is true of any economy where there is a government deficit while at the same time there is a propensity in the population to save rather than spend. It is the driving force behind China’s export surpluses, because with the sole exception of Singapore, the Chinese are the biggest savers on the planet. The position of nations whose economic policies have been to tax savings and to encourage immediate consumption is diametrically different. It is consumption funded by the expansion of money and credit without increases in savings which has led to persistent US trade deficits, twinned with budget deficits. 

    The evidence confirms that a savings driven economy is more successful than a consumption driven economy. Not only does the former protect the currency’s purchasing power by reducing the need for reliance on foreign capital inflows to finance internal deficits, but empirical evidence clearly shows savings-driven economies are more successful at creating wealth for their citizens. Importantly, a currency backed by a savings culture can weather a greater level of credit expansion by its central bank without adverse consequences for prices.

    The condition which must apply is that fiat currencies continue to operate as media of exchange. The moment a major currency such as the US dollar fails, then all fiat currencies are likely to be destabilised. The cure for that risk is to tie currencies to legal money, which is gold. In the absence of that link, even the strongest fiat currency loses purchasing power over time. The Japanese yen has lost 95% of its purchasing power relative to gold since 1970, an average of 1.83% every year. But including tax-free bank interest, the Japanese housewife has probably just about retained the value of her post office savings account, unlike her taxed equivalents in the other major currencies.

    Supplying a reserve currency 

    As Robert Triffin, the Belgian-American economist put it, for a currency to be available internationally to act as the reserve currency requires irresponsible short-term domestic economic and monetary policies. Triffin originally described why this is the case in evidence before the US Congress in 1959. It was a dilemma, which would eventually lead to an erosion of confidence in the currency. He was proved right eight years later when the London gold pool failed, leading to the abandonment of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971.

    In a twist of Triffin’s earlier warning whereby his predicted outcome is ignored, in recent years the dilemma has been taken to justify continual trade deficits, the counterpart of which is the accumulation of dollars in foreign hands. The eventual consequences are ignored. Currently, these dollars and the US financial assets in which they are invested total over $30 trillion, significantly more than US GDP. This total has fallen by over $3 trillion in the year to September, mainly due to a fall in market valuations. But there has been net foreign selling of existing US dollar assets as well, while the US trade deficit has added to the outflow by an additional trillion dollars.

    The US now appears to be in a similar position to that described by Triffin as the inevitable outcome of providing the world with its reserve currency. Furthermore, the scale of dollar and dollar denominated financial asset accumulation has been encouraged by a bond bull market on the back of a declining interest rate trend which has lasted forty years. Crucially, domestic funding of budget deficits as recorded by the savings rate has failed to match this foreign interest.

    However, domestic investors have made substantial portfolio gains along with foreign holders of dollars. Driving these gains has been the inflation of credit directed into financial activities thereby sustaining the bubble, while the Fed goosed valuations by suppressing interest rates to the zero bound.

    When the rate of consumer price inflation unexpectedly broke the bounds of statistical management — independent analysts had it far higher than official figures for many years citing changes in methodology — it became clear that the bull market in US asset values was over. Being in the early stages of a bear market, this fundamental change is yet to be widely recognised, but with official interest rates well below the CPI rate of increase, foreign investors are certain of yet more portfolio and currency losses. Domestic investors and bulls of their own currency assume foreigners will still demand dollars, when the evidence from the continuing trade deficit and the US Treasury’s TIC figures confirm they are already turning sellers.

    This dichotomy between foreigner and domestic users of a currency is not unusual. An examination of previous episodes of currencies in trouble confirms that the foreign exchanges are usually first to recognise they should be sold, while domestic users usually continue to believe that they will retain their value. 

    If it is not too late, the solution to stabilising today’s fiat currencies is to remove all obstacles to savers, in an attempt to increase the savings ratio. But when a currency is already on its way to eventual extinction, removing tax disincentives may not be enough, and other measures to reduce the budget deficit must be taken in order to reduce the trade deficit. But then we run into Keynes’s savings paradox: discouraging consumption in favour of savings is viewed by neo-Keynesians as recessionary when economic growth is already stalling.

    The Saudi’s decision to ditch dollars in favour of yuan — turning from petrodollars to petroyuan — couldn’t have come at a worse time for the dollar. In addition to facing a bear market for their dollar assets, foreign holders now find its mainstay justification is distinctly frayed. Almost certainly, the dollar is on the verge of a Triffin crisis.

    The future role of China’s yuan 

    This time, it appears that the dollar has nowhere to turn. Asia is now the most important geopolitical region, with some 3.8bn people rapidly industrialising. Member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Eurasian Economic Union, and BRICS are increasingly determined to move away from dollars, its hegemony, and influence. As the Saudis and the whole Gulf Cooperation Council of oil exporters are demonstrating, China’s yuan is being seen as the dollar’s replacement for inter-Asian payments. The roles of the euro, yen, and sterling in foreign reserves are also likely to diminish with the dollar as well. 

    At this stage the new global currency reserve position is still unclear, with the Eurasian Economic Union planning a trade settlement currency, and the Russians sending vague signals but yet to prognosticate. But in the context of Triffin and savings rates, China could hardly be more different from the US. 

    China has a savings rate of about 45% of its GDP. With this propensity to save, it is unsurprising that consumer price inflation is under two per cent. Moreover, government finances have taken a hit from China’s covid lockdown policies and a property development crisis, leaving a deficit of over $1 trillion equivalent for 2022. But even so, with such a high savings rate the surplus on the balance of trade for 2022 was still positive at $890bn.

    The Triffin dilemma suggests that for the yuan to become a replacement reserve currency the Chinese government will have to start spending like drunken sailors while taxing domestic savings to the hilt. Only then can a trade deficit be expected to arise. But such a volte face in economic policy would surely destroy the yuan’s credibility. After all, it took ten years from the suspension of the Bretton Woods agreement and interest rates rising to 20% for the dollar to then assume the role of a reserve currency in gold’s stead.

    We must question the need for central banks to maintain currency reserves in the future. Not only did the western alliance send a signal that they could be made worthless by its cartel at the stroke of a pen, but the shift from the petrodollar to the petroyuan is symbolic of a currency regime that has had its time. The possession of reserves originated with the requirement for central banks to back their currencies with legal money — gold. It is the abandonment of this link with money that led to possession of currency reserves, with dollar holdings at their core. But other than for limited international intervention purposes there seems to be little reason to hold them, particularly for those central banks who have become aware of the western alliance’s declining influence.

    China with its trade surplus while maintaining a balance in its payments by exporting capital has no need for other currency reserves beyond some minor liquidity. The capital being exported is in yuan in the form of bank credit, and it suits China with her plans for the industrialisation of Greater Asia and its suppliers in Africa and South America to make substantial investments for her greater good. The Chinese government controls its major banks and can direct the application of this surplus credit. There is no need therefore for China to destroy its finances to provide yuan as a reserve currency, as Triffin originally suggested.

    Clearly, there must be a revolution in central bank thinking underway in the broader Asian camp. Central banks are beginning to replace the major currencies in their reserves with yuan and even roubles. But these currencies are not available in sufficient quantities to replace their dollars, euros, yen, and sterling. This is why they are turning the clock back and beginning to accumulate physical gold.

    In a few words, it is China’s high savings rate which gives its government the resources, the power, and the opportunity to displace the American dollar and its hegemony from Greater Asia and much of the developing world. Our mistake leading to our relative decline was to listen to Keynes and his paradox of thrift.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 20:30

  • Prediction Consensus: What The Experts See Coming In 2023
    Prediction Consensus: What The Experts See Coming In 2023

    In this fourth year of Visual Capitalist’s Prediction Consensus (now part of their more comprehensive 2023 Global Forecast Series), they’ve learned a few things about the universe of predictions, experts, outlooks, and forecasts.

    1. Experts are reasonably good at predicting the future one year out, though they are also in a strong position to help shape the future through their influential thought leadership and actions.

    2. Situations can and will flare up in unexpected ways, which can have knock-on effects on the whole system (e.g. COVID-19, Ukraine invasion).

    3. Experts are just as susceptible to hype as the rest of us, as evidenced by the glut of Web3 predictions in 2022 and AI predictions this year.

    Of course, as Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley admits, we’re susceptible to hype as well, which is why we asked ChatGPT to write the intro to this article:

    Not bad. But, simple curiosity aside, it’s the practical considerations we’ll focus on today. This article serves as an overview of how experts think the markets will move, how trends will develop, and which risks and opportunities to watch over the coming 12 months.

    Let’s gaze into the crystal ball.

    The Economic Vibe Check

    First, we’ll look at some big picture themes, and how experts see them playing out over 2023.

    Inflation: This was the top economic story of last year, so it’s a natural starting place. Many of the expert opinions in this year’s database (now at 500+ predictions) are pointing to inflation easing off as the year progresses*. On the downside, few predict that inflation will drop back down to the 2% range that Fed policymakers favor.

    GDP: Forecasters have been revising their economic projections downward in recent weeks. The latest was World Bank, which now sees global growth declining to 1.7% in 2023, down from 3% just six months ago. Most of the predictions in our database see global economic growth in the range of 1.5% to 2%.

    Recession: As 2022 came to a close, the broad sentiment among experts in the financial industry is that recession is all but inevitable in developed markets this year. As dawn breaks in 2023, a few analysts now feel that the U.S.—and possibly Europe—could narrowly avoid recession.

    Markets: Experts on Wall Street and beyond are cautiously optimistic about equities, and after the worst year on record for bonds in 2022, most analysts are declaring that “Bonds are back”.

    *Interestingly, this was also last year’s prediction, but the scale of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a curve ball that caught many experts off guard.

    AI is Eating the World

    Jobs being displaced by automation is far from a new theme, but given the exponential improvements in AI in recent years, the risk to entire industries feels more existential today.

    As an example, let’s consider art and design. One of the ways many illustrators and artists earn a living is through commissions⁠—essentially being hired and paid to create a specific piece of art in their style.

    Today though, free, powerful AI tools, such as Midjourney, allow users to generate high-quality art in an infinite number of styles with just a few clicks. Real art will never truly go out of style, and accomplished artists will always attract an audience, but this one example shows how quickly technology can disrupt an industry. (Artists can take solace in the fact that AI is still comically bad at rendering hands.)

    Of course, there are obvious positive aspects to this technological advancement as well. Generative AI tools are useful for generating ideas and mock-ups, and even functional snippets of code. AI systems like AlphaFold unlock a world of possibilities in scientific domains.

    From the hundreds of predictions we evaluated, it’s clear that experts view AI as a major catalyst this year. AI start-ups are forcing Big Tech to innovate faster, and employees are finding new ways to use AI-powered tools to increase productivity.

    Experts predict that AI will impact peoples’ lives in a much more visible and tangible way in 2023 than in past years.

    The China Factor

    As world’s second largest economy and linchpin of global trade, events in China have a major impact on the world economy.

    Xi Jinping’s reversal of Zero-COVID restrictions should drastically change the trajectory of the country’s economy. For one, reopening will unleash a flood of household spending and consumption.

    China’s reopening will also impact other economies as well. For example, the resumption of travel will be a boon to destinations favored by Chinese vacationers. Economically, Hong Kong stands to benefit immensely—its GDP could jump upwards of 8% after reopening is complete. Emerging market commodity exporters could see a lift as well, though inflation could be reinvigorated as a result.

    In the U.S., a storm is brewing over the extremely popular video app, TikTok. Many experts predict that regulators will either ban the app altogether in 2023, or force the sale of the company to an American entity. Regardless how that situation plays out, it underscores the souring relationship between the U.S. and China. The rivalry will continue to have ripple effects on the global markets throughout the year.

    Energy

    Energy was the S&P 500’s top performing sector two years in a row, and many experts feel that more growth is on the horizon.

    The global system that supplies us with energy is breathtakingly complex, with a lot of unpredictable factors at play. Of all factors, conflict can create the most volatility, and 2023 has a number of geopolitical risks that could impact energy supplies. First, Europe will continue to diversify its energy imports away from Russia. Recently, liquefied natural gas from the U.S. has helped fill gaps.

    Next, Iran could be a flashpoint in the Middle East this year. A brewing conflict in the region could cause instability, which will have knock-on effects on the energy industry—particularly in the event of attacks on oil and gas infrastructure.

    Here are a few other factors to consider this coming year:

    • The U.S. Energy Department will aim to replenish its Strategic Petroleum Reserve

    • Easing of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela could lay the ground work for increased oil production

    • In post-Zero-COVID China, economic activity will increase, pushing up demand

    • In the UK, the energy price guarantee will rise in April, meaning higher energy bills for households

    The Elon Playbook

    After a lull in December (nobody wants to be the company that fires people during the holiday season) tech and tech-adjacent companies have resumed their zealous slashing of headcounts.

    There had been a slew of layoffs already in 2023, topped by Salesforce, which is trimming 7,000 jobs, and Amazon, which is cutting 18,000 roles—primarily impacting the corporate side of the business.

    Given the influence of Elon Musk in the tech industry, many experts are suggesting that his strategy of ruthlessly slashing headcount at Twitter might serve as inspiration for other technology leaders.

    Employees in the tech industry are very well compensated, and many were hired during periods of intense competition between companies to attract talent and capture market share.

    During a downturn, it’s tempting—and often necessary—for companies to course-correct. There were also predictions that the whole start-up and investment ecosystem could be switching from a hypergrowth to a value-focused mindset, which is a theme that is worth consideration in 2023.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 20:00

  • LAPD Chief Blasted For "Political Pandering" After Banning 'Blue Lives Matter' Flag From Los Angeles Police Stations
    LAPD Chief Blasted For “Political Pandering” After Banning ‘Blue Lives Matter’ Flag From Los Angeles Police Stations

    Authored by Monica Showalter via AmericanThinker.com,

    So Los Angeles has a new mayor — the far-left Karen Bass, and it hasn’t taken long for changes to kick in, letting the police know she doesn’t have their back.

    Latest news is this diktat from above, as reported by Fox News:

    The Los Angeles Police Department banned the Thin Blue Line flag from public areas within police departments this week over a complaint that the flag represented “violent, extremist views.”

    LAPD Chief Michel Moore defended the controversial move in an email sent to Fox News Digital, saying, “Yesterday, we received a community complaint of the presence of a Blue Line Flag” with “the view that it symbolized support for violent extremist views, such as those represented by the Proud Boys and others.” 

    “I directed to have the item taken down from the public lobby. The U.S. flag should be proudly displayed in our lobbies whenever possible. Memorials for our fallen are also authorized in all public spaces,” he said. 

    The banned flag looks like this:

    Where’d I take that photo? At a party full of LAPD cops, celebrating the birthday at the home of one of their own. The photo doesn’t include the cops, but there were a lot of them. 

    It was at this party that I learned how much that flag means to these officers, all of whom were black or Hispanic, none of whom were white. This flag is a big deal to them, an emblem of their hard job, an expression of the dangers and death they face, and a rallying point for their reasonable interests.

    They want to ban this? Because of one wokester complaint, a complaint from someone who undoubtedly doesn’t want any cops whatsoever, a cop-hater, and they are out there, as that’s been the party line in the anti-cop wokester-activist community for several years now.

    The excuses from headquarters were really pathetic:

    Moore explained that a flag displayed in one station’s lobby spurred a complaint and he added, “It’s unfortunate that extremist groups have hijacked the use of the ‘Thin Blue Line flag’ to symbolize their undemocratic, racist, and bigoted views.” 

    The LAPD chief ordered all flags with the symbol to be removed from public areas. Moore said officers still can display the flag “their workspace, locker door, or personal vehicle.” 

    While Moore said he viewed the flag as symbolizing “the honor, valor, dedication, and sacrifice of law enforcement to protect our communities,” he said others had undermined the flag with their “racist, bigoted and oppressive values.”

    Really? Let’s hear some names, which naturally, Moore and his ilk didn’t give.

    This has about as much credibility as the Pentagon’s hunt for extremists (read: Trump supporters) in the military’s ranks, or the FBI’s hunt for domestic terrorists among the parents attending school board meetings.

    And while we are at it, let’s look at the diversity composition of the LAPD these days since policing is so synonymous with white supremacy and that flag the LAPD brass hates so much.

    According to Wikipedia:

    As of 2019, the Los Angeles Police Department had 10,008 officers sworn in. Of these, 81% (8,158) were male and 19% (1,850) female. The racial/ethnic breakdown:[50]

    The claim that flag was white supremacist, accompanied by the dog biscuit thrown to the cops, that they can still display the flags on their personal cars and lockers, pretty well pegs any cop who has such stickers as a white supremacist. After all, if they’re going to peg a symbol as white supremacist, why are they allowing it on lockers and cars? Do they allow Klan or White Aryan Brotherhood symbols on cars and lockers of cops, too?

    Don’t think so.

    The concession given is because they know how alienated the cops are by this decision. According to Fox News, a union representing 9,900 Los Angeles police officers fire back with this statement:

    “It is difficult to express the level of utter disgust and disappointment with Chief Moore’s politically pandering directive to remove Thin Blue Line flags and memorials for fallen officers from all public areas within our police stations. This direction came as a result of complaints from anti-police, criminal apologists, and activists who hold too much sway over our city leaders and, unfortunately, our Chief,” the Board of directors for the Los Angeles Police Protective League wrote in a statement.

    The union said they “vehemently” opposed “this disrespectful and defeatist kowtowing by our department leadership to groups that praise the killing of police officers and outright call for violence against those of us in uniform. We have directly expressed our outrage to the Chief.”

    Note that word “vehemently.” 

    We pretty well can tell what the sentiment in the not-so-white ranks is regarding this ban on the only public emblem the cops even have — and which without, they are all alone out there, no rallying symbol for their lives and welfare.

    With the police brass playing politics, as they say, it’s pretty obvious that the “politics” here is the politics of the new mayor, Karen Bass, who’s a wokester fanatic so leftwing she was rejected by the Biden team for the vice presidency, which handed the slot of the giggly and less competent Kamala Harris instead. Obviously, they’ve been read the Riot Act by Bass, and are looking to save their skins. The bad part here is that the line officers have been sent a message — that politicians and the police brass don’t have their backs now. Already thousands of officers, including many at that very party, have retired, or retired at their desks.

    This flag message sends the message in the already crime-plagued city, one of the country’s worst, that it’s time to quit and move someplace where they want the blue in place and are willing to support the blue.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 19:30

  • Fully Priced-In: Even Goldman Expects Sharp Contraction In Profit Margins In 2023
    Fully Priced-In: Even Goldman Expects Sharp Contraction In Profit Margins In 2023

    There has been a bizarre episode of cognitive dissonance developing within Goldman’s trading desk and research departments over the past three months: as readers may recall, some time in late September, just as stocks slumped near their 2022 lows for the second time, Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin – who had heretofore been one of the staunchest equity bulls – slashed his market outlook and his S&P price target, which he now sees closing unchanged from its Friday level, or right at 4,000. That’s right, Goldman clients can now take a 11 and a half month vacation, spare themselves the emotional rollercoaster that is to follow, and come back for the last day of trading in 2023 when Goldman expects stocks to be… unchanged.

    Of course, when Goldman started turning bearish some three months ago (which just happened to coincide with that other permabull Marko Kolanovic also turning bearish), we said that that was the bottom and so far, some 400 S&P points higher, our cynicism has been proven correct.

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    But as so often happens, with Goldman so bearishly positioned at a time when the Fed is hinting that a rate hike pause is imminent and the market is expecting at least 50bps of rate cuts in the second half, last week saw the first tentative signs that Goldman’s strategists and economists are starting to turn bullish again, which means that the countdown to a material upgrade in Goldman’s year-end price target (to, say, 4,500) has begun.

    Indeed, in the past week, two top Goldman strategists, Jan Hatzius and Dominic Wilson highlighted the “improving investing landscape” in two notes this week: “Mostly Better News” (available to pro subs here) and “A Bit More Room to Grow” (also available to pro subs), pointing out that after the latest payrolls and CPI data, “markets are now pricing in the soft landing for the US economy that we forecast; Europe no longer appears to headed towards a recession either (Goldman also raised its GDP growth forecast into positive territory earlier this week in “10 Questions for 2023” and no longer expects a European recession)” and Goldman even saw upside to its China growth forecast which now anticipates a 4Q23/4Q22 GDP growth pace of over 7%.

    But, as Goldman strategist Chris Hussey notes in his Friday weekly recap, “just like in Legoland, this ‘Everything is awesome!’ environment may still be riddled with risks that our strategists and analysts also highlight this week from macro to micro.”

    One such risk was brought up by none other than David Kostin, who remains one of the bearish holdouts withing Goldman (not for long) and continues to sound a cautious tone in a fresh note this week, urging the bank’s clients to “buy protection” in his note “strategies for soft and hard landings.” According to Kostin, the biggest red flag: downward earnings revisions have been extreme and have only looked like this in past recessions (2000 and 2008).

    As such, Kostin is hesitant to look through this dependable market indicator and believe prudent portfolio managers should at least consider the implications if a hard landing transpires.

    Over the weekend, Kostin continued this game of good cop (Hatzius, Wilson) vs bad cop (Kostin), writing in his latest weekly Kickstart note (available to pro subs here) that “negative consensus earnings revisions and analyst expectations for a lackluster 4Q 2022 earnings season continue the trend of weakening corporate profitability in recent quarters.” Additionally, the S&P’s trailing 4-quarter return on equity declined by 29 bp to 20.6% in 3Q 2022 driven by a contraction in margins: as Kostin calculates, “at a sector level 7 of 11 S&P 500 sectors experienced declining ROE, with Info Tech suffering the largest drop and Energy expanding the most.” Looking ahead, Kostin warns that an upwards inflection in S&P 500 ROE will be difficult to achieve in 2023, “as headwinds from a higher cost of capital and higher taxes will place further strain on profitability.”

    Of course, this is all taking place as Q4 earnings season kicked off in earnest on Friday with large banks reporting mixed results, and with consensus expecting the aggregate S&P 500 index to post -1% EPS growth in 4Q 2022 vs. 4Q 2021 and decline by 5% excluding the Energy sector. As shown in the charts above, earnings revisions have recently been very negative, adding to many investors’ concerns about a potential recession on the horizon.

    What does all of this mean for corporate profitability? Clearly, nothing good: according to Kostin, the increasingly negative consensus earnings revisions and current analyst expectations for a lackluster 4Q 2022 earnings season continue the trend of weakening corporate profitability in recent quarters. To wit, S&P 500 trailing 4-quarter return on equity declined by 29 bp to 20.6% in 3Q 2022. The decline in ROE represented the third consecutive quarterly decline following the metric’s all time high of 22% in 4Q 2021 (despite the recent declines the latest figure still ranks in the 99th percentile of S&P 500 ROE going back to 1975, meaning there is a lot more downside from here).

    The Goldman strategist finds that contraction in profit margins was the main reason for the ROE decline last quarter: “We use a five-factor DuPont decomposition to analyze the drivers of ROE.Falling EBIT margins drove 69 bp of ROE contraction (Exhibit 2). Margins had already begun to decline in both 1Q and 2Q 2022 after a full year of expansion in 2021, and the trend continued in 3Q 2022. Index-level LTM EBIT margins contracted q/q by 48 bp in 3Q (vs. -90 bp in 2Q and -47 bp in 1Q). Slightly higher interest and tax expenses also weighed on ROE during 3Q (contributing -20 bp total). These headwinds were offset by higher asset turnover, which contributed +62 bp to ROE.”

    Financial jargon aside, while most sectors saw ROEs fall last quarter, they also enjoy profitability well above historical averages. 7 of 11 S&P 500 sectors experienced declining ROE, with Info Tech suffering the largest drop (-237 bp) and Energy expanding the most (+518 bp). The increase in Energy ROE was driven by margin expansion, contrasting with contracting margins in every other sector except for Real Estate. In addition to Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Utilities saw slight ROE gains. Despite lackluster ROE growth over the past three quarters, 9 of 11 sectors’ levels of ROE still stand above their historical sector averages, and 6 have ROEs currently in the top decile vs. their sector’s history.

    Ironically, while to some this may mean that Energy – which was the blowout outperforming segment in 2022 – is overvalued, the reality is just the opposite, and with most sector P/B valuations currently well-ordered based on ROE, Energy and Utilities remain outliers. Energy remains below the P/B implied by its expected ROE while Utilities’ valuation appears stretched. In the case of Energy, the lackluster valuation is likely due to consensus expectations for -15% EPS growth in 2023 (after +161% growth in 2022) and lower long-term growth expectations relative to other sectors. Meanwhile, utilities valuations have benefitted in part due to the attractiveness of the sector’s defensive attributes amid heightened recession concerns.

    Looking ahead, the bearish Goldman strategist concedes that “an upwards inflection in S&P 500 ROE will be difficult to achieve in 2023” and he expects margins for most sectors to contract while also expecting further cut in current consensus EPS estimates to bring them closer to Goldman’s baseline and recession scenarios (which is odd since Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius is adamant that a recession will not happen, but that’s all part of Goldman’s “good cop, bad cop” CYA routine). As other ROE headwinds, Kostin lists taxes, leverage, and borrow costs.

    Taking a closer look at margin hurdles, Goldman notes that historically, higher leverage and lower taxes have been the largest contributors to ROE. Indeed, since 1975, declining interest rates and corporate tax rates have been the strongest tailwinds to corporate profitability. Declining interest rates have allowed firms to utilize higher leverage to bolster equity holder returns, resulting in a cumulative contribution of +1463 bp to ROE while lower borrow costs have contributed +476 bp to ROE over the period. Similarly, declining corporate tax rates have contributed +900 bp. On the other hand, lower asset turnover has been the largest detractor from ROE, shaving off -2522 bp over time.

    Here, Kostin warns that “near-term improvements to ROE from higher leverage will be unlikely given higher cost of capital”, i.e. the Fed’s tightening. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for US firms has spiked by 200 bp to 6%, the highest level in a decade and the largest 12-month rise in 40 years, or since the Volcker Fed.

    Goldman expects the WACC in 2023 will remain near the current level (which of course, is as good as tell as any that Powell will very soon be slashing rates). The direct consequence of a higher WACC is costlier leverage, which will ultimately disincentivize firms from boosting ROE through this channel in 2023. As an aside, despite higher WACC, borrow costs will be less of a dramatic headwind, as most S&P 500 debt is fixed rate with long maturities. 75% of S&P 500 debt is fixed, and only 24% of total debt is expected to mature between 2023 and 2025.

    Finally, Goldman warns that higher taxes in 2023 will also be a headwind for ROE expansion. While new corporate taxes from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) should reduce S&P 500 EPS by less than 2% in 2023, the direction of the change in tax expense will now weigh on ROE instead of supporting it.

    According to the Goldman strategist, This impact should be pronounced for sectors with low effective tax rates such as Info Tech and Health Care which will face a larger impact from minimum tax provisions. Sunsetting provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the new 1% excise tax on buybacks introduced in the IRA will place additional tax-related strain on ROE.

    Of course, none of what Kostin claims above is incorrect (he goes on to note that in a challenging environment for ROE growth, stocks that were expected to grow ROE outperformed the S&P 500 by 10 pp in 2022 and then pitches Goldman’s ROE growth basket which contains 50 stocks with the highest consensus-expected ROE growth during the next 12 months, the full list available to pro subs) but what we find most notable is that now that even Goldman fully embraces the core pillar of the 2023 bear case (as laid out by Michael Wilson some 6 months ago), the reality is that while sellside analysts may be slow to trim their optimistic outlooks, most on Wall Street have applied their own personal discounts to consensus, and more importantly, the margin contraction and EPS shrinkage narratives are both fully priced in by now, and only a full-blown recession can lead to further downward repricings. In other words, now that a sharp slide in inflation is the base case, the longer the Biden Dept of Labor ignores reality and pretends that job growth is there, the higher stocks will rise.

    More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 19:00

  • The Rise And Fall (And Rise Again) Of Music Sales, By Format (1973-2021)
    The Rise And Fall (And Rise Again) Of Music Sales, By Format (1973-2021)

    We live in a world of music. Whether when driving to work or jamming out at home, people around the world like to have their favorite tunes playing in the background.

    But while our love for music has been constant, the way we consume media has evolved drastically. The past 50 years have seen many different music formats used to access these tunes, mirroring society’s shift from analog to digital.

    This video, created by James Eagle vis Visual Capitalist using data from the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), highlights sales of different music formats in the U.S. over the last 50 years.

    Vinyl

    Up until the late 1980s, vinyl dominated the music format industry, earning billions of dollars in sales annually. Records of Bruce Springsteen’s Born to Run or Pink Floyd’s Dark Side of the Moon were some of the top selling albums available.

    Vinyl is said to provide its listeners with analog sounds that reverberate and the warm notes of almost-live music. For vinyl users and enthusiasts to this day, the music produced by these sleek yet massive records is unparalleled.

    8-Track

    If you’re a millennial (or younger), you may have never heard of the 8-track. But this music format played an integral part in the history of music.

    When the booming automotive vehicle industry found it challenging to translate the music experience to cars using vinyl, it looked to the “Stereo 8” eight-track cartridge, better known as the 8-track. This cartridge used an analog magnetic tape and provided 90 minutes of continuous music play time.

    8-track carved a niche for itself much before the advent of cassettes and CDs. And through the proliferation of vehicles, 8-track sales climbed to reach a peak revenue of $900 million in 1978.

    Cassettes

    The era of cassettes pushed 8-tracks into the history of music in the early 1980s. These pocket-sized tapes were more convenient to use than 8Tracks and quickly spread worldwide.

    By 1989, the cassette format reached its peak revenues of $3.7 billion.

    CDs

    First released in 1982, the Compact Disc or CD came into the music market as the successor to the vinyl record.

    Developed by Philips and Sony, sales of the sleek and portable CD grew quickly as home and car stereos alike added CD functionality. The format brought in $13.3 billion in revenue in both 1999 and 2000. To date, no other music format has reached the same milestone since.

    Digital Music Formats

    When it comes to preferred music formats over time, convenience (and cost) seem to have been the biggest catalysts of change.

    From the start of the early 2000s, CDs had started to be replaced by other forms of digital storage and distribution. The massive shift to internet consumption and the introduction of digital music, available through downloads, pushed audio CD sales down rapidly.

    The launch of streaming platforms like Spotify in 2006 exacerbated this decline, with CD sales dropping by around $4 billion in five years.

    Digital sales continued to evolve. Ringtone sales alone brought in $1.1 billion in 2007, and in 2012, the revenues from downloads shot up to a peak of $2.9 billion. But music streaming platforms kept climbing through 2021, and will likely continue to be the future face of music consumption.

    RankMusic formatsRevenue in 2021

    1Streaming$11.5 billion

    2Vinyl$1.0 billion

    3CD$0.6 billion

    4Downloads$0.5 billion

     Other$1.4 billion

     Total$15.1 billion

    Music streaming and subscription services pushed the accessibility of music to new highs, especially with free ad-supported platforms.

    In 2021, streaming secured the music industry a whopping $11.5 billion in sales, good for 76% of the total. If it keeps growing in popularity and accessibility, the format could potentially challenge the peak popularity of CDs in the late 90s.

    The Vintage Comeback?

    There’s no doubt that digital music formats are getting increasingly popular with every passing year. However, one of our vintage and beloved music formats—the vinyl record—seems to be making a comeback.

    According to the RIAA database, the revenue earned by LP/EP sales has shot up to $1.0 billion in 2021, its highest total since the mid-1980s.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 18:00

  • Morgan Stanley: "We Are Focusing On These Three Key Global Transitions"
    Morgan Stanley: “We Are Focusing On These Three Key Global Transitions”

    By Michael Zezas, Head of Global Thematic Research at Morgan Stanley

    What do you get when 45 global research analysts gather in a room for two days to debate secular market trends? A plan. Amid rapid change, Morgan Stanley Research views concentrating on multiyear secular trends as an opportunity. In markets where short-term focus has become the norm (i.e., the average equity holding period has declined from eight years in the 1960s to six months today), it stands to reason that there’s less competition and more potential alpha to be found from analyzing the market impacts of longer-term trends. A collaborative, cross-asset culture has long been core to our mission, and in the spirit of debate and collaboration, we gathered analysts from around the globe to identify the key secular themes that Morgan Stanley Research should focus on this year.

    Our dialogue made it clear that collaboration can eliminate blind spots for investors who are grappling with complex global themes. The agenda for our meeting included over 30 topics, none of them unfamiliar to market participants. But the discussion raised questions of broader concern, suggesting their answers could impact markets beyond what analysts could plausibly perceive or analyze individually. Many of these questions centered on knock-on impacts to inflation, interest rates, and the structure of markets themselves as the world undergoes major geopolitical and technological transformations.

    This year, we’re taking our collaborative, in-depth work a step further, focusing on three key global transitions. We think these shifts will have a profound impact on markets for many years, but that a collaborative, cross-asset approach is required to master their complexity and produce meaningful insights for investors. The three transitions are: 1) Rewiring global commerce for a multipolar world; 2) Decarbonization; and 3) Accelerated technology diffusion. We plan to address them this year in collaborative in-depth reports, briefs, and podcasts.

    • Rewiring global commerce for a multipolar world: With the shift from unbridled globalization to a world with more than one meaningful power base and commercial standard, companies and countries can no longer seek efficiencies through global supply chains and market access without factoring in geopolitical risks. While we first flagged this secular trend in 2018, we believe it became the consensus following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s policy response, which created fresh trade barriers and incentives to realign supply chains.

      What our analysts believe is less well understood are the practical implications of this rewiring. It makes sense in theory but is exceedingly complicated to execute in practice. Questions that surfaced in our discussions included: How long will it take? Will it lead to higher inflation and, if so, for how long? How will bond markets cope with financing the transition? Which companies and countries will benefit or suffer because of it? Having come early to this theme, we believe we are well placed to address these questions through a collaborative, multidisciplinary approach across economists, market strategists, and equity analysts.

    • Decarbonization: Between 1) Europe’s problematic reliance on imported natural gas being laid bare by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; 2) Growing EU policy support for energy transition infrastructure via the REPowerEU plan; and 3) The US appropriation of $400 billion+ to speed the adoption of clean energy technology, we think it’s fair to say that the developed world is accelerating its efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Still, this is a tall order. To reach ‘Net Zero by 2050’, carbon emissions would need to start falling by ~8% per year. Even during 2020, when the lockdowns heavily impacted mobility and global GDP shrank, emissions fell only 5%. In addition, the cost would be significant. The IEA estimates that the energy transition will cost an extra ~$70 trillion over the next 30 years, taking energy spending to 4.5% of global GDP from its current run rate of 2.5%.

      Investors will need to grapple with both the positive and negative impacts of this transition. Our assessment of which companies, sectors, and macro markets will benefit or be challenged will be shaped by answers to the following questions: What are plausible scenarios for timelines? Which technological and policy developments and failures could speed or slow the transition? Which markets will finance it and how must they change and expand? Which companies will benefit and which are exposed to downside risks? What are the macroeconomic and geopolitical impacts of different paths to Net Zero?

    • Tech diffusion: While this is hardly a new theme, what’s different and noteworthy are the speed and breadth with which tech diffusion can impact sectors that were previously untouched. Fragmented industries or those with high regulatory barriers – which have typically not reaped as much tech-driven productivity benefit – suddenly look poised for a multi-year transition via tech diffusion. Opportunities range from embedded finance in consumer user experience and payments, to tokenized assets allowing for greater global financial inclusion, to modernizing healthcare data ownership and biopharma R&D breakthroughs. We expect the next five years of tech diffusion to move meaningfully faster than the last five.

    And what if we’ve identified the wrong themes? We’ll regroup and tell you about it. Our analyst group stressed the importance of remaining flexible. While not fans of the source, we see wisdom in the truism that “there are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen”. The past three years certainly underscored how unforeseen events, e.g., a global pandemic and a war in Europe, can give rise to new, dominant secular themes. Hence, if similar events occur in 2023, we’ll be quick to reorganize our thematic efforts, let you know, and deliver the collaborative insights you need to navigate new transitions.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 17:30

  • Putin Hails "Positive" Momentum In Ukraine, "Stable" Economy In Surprisingly Upbeat Remarks
    Putin Hails “Positive” Momentum In Ukraine, “Stable” Economy In Surprisingly Upbeat Remarks

    Fresh off the Russian armed forces declaring victory in the strategic Donetsk town of Soledar days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin surprised officials in the West by touting the ‘positive dynamic’ of the Ukraine operation overall, despite the prior months of setbacks and a slower-going operation than Moscow expected. 

    He said in fresh weekend comments to Rossiya 1 state television when asked about the successful Soledar operation that “The dynamic is positive.” He described that “Everything is developing within the framework of the plan of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff.” Putin followed with, “And I hope that our fighters will please us even more with the results of their combat.”

    Sputnik via Reuters

    He also made comments on the state of the economy while confirming that Russia will turn for trade to Asian powers, China and India in particular. 

    “The situation in the economy is stable,” Putin said. “Much better than not only what our opponents predicted but also what we forecast.” For this he cited low unemployment, saying: “Unemployment is at a historic low. Inflation is lower than expected and has, importantly, a downward trend.”

    Despite his county finding itself more isolated than ever before in its modern history, and despite unprecedented Western-led sanctions, Putin showed no signs of backing down from objectives previously set in Ukraine, as Reuters summarizes of the new remarks…

    “Putin now casts the war in Ukraine as an existential battle with an aggressive and arrogant West, and has said that Russia will use all available means to protect itself and its people against any aggressor.”

    Further the report characterized the Western stance in the following: “The United States and its allies have condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an imperial land grab, while Ukraine has vowed to fight until the last Russian soldier is ejected from its territory.”

    Meanwhile, as we previewed recently, there are reasons to believe Russia is readying an escalation in response to the West sending tanks and deepening its military involvement in support of Ukraine forces. 

    Aftermath of missile strike on residential complex in the central city of Dnipro, via BBC.

    But for now, the defense ministry is continuing its strategy of pummeling Ukraine’s energy grid and civilian and military infrastructure through major air strikes. Attacks on Sunday and Saturday marked about the 12th large wave to come in recent months. Air alert sirens have been sounding across the country on Sunday. 

    Russia’s army described that it targeted “the military command and related energy facilities,” and said that “all targets were reached.”

    Ukraine’s national energy operator Ukrenergo said it’s again working to quickly restore power in impacted places but acknowledged this latest attack has “increased the energy deficit.”

    “The period of outages may increase,” it acknowledged, already after the national grid having been severely degraded for months, and as emergency blackouts continue for most of the country, with more severely impacted areas with permanent blackouts.

    The weekend airstrikes may have included high civilian casualties, compared to prior waves, given the Ukrainian government says a large residential tower was directly hit in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The New York Times details of the Saturday afternoon strike at a moment a rescue operation is still underway, “Rescuers on Sunday continued to comb the rubble of a nine-story apartment building that was cut in half by a Russian strike, as the death toll from the attack in the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro a day earlier climbed to 30,” and noted: “It was one of the largest losses of civilian lives far from the front line since the beginning of the war.”

    “By Sunday evening, 30 people had been confirmed dead, according to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service,” the Times continued. “At least 75 people were injured, and more than 30 people were still believed to be missing, local officials said.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 17:00

  • 7 Factors Bitcoin Investors Should Watch In 2023
    7 Factors Bitcoin Investors Should Watch In 2023

    Authored by Craig Deutsch, Dylan LeClair, and Same Rule via BitcoinMagazine.com,

    The below is an excerpt from a recent year-ahead report written by the Bitcoin Magazine PRO analysts. Download the entire report here.

    Bitcoin Magazine PRO sees incredibly strong fundamentals in the Bitcoin network and we are laser-focused on its market dynamic in the context of macroeconomic trends. Bitcoin aims to become the world reserve currency, an investment opportunity that cannot be understated.

    In our year-ahead report, we analyzed seven notable factors that we recommend investors pay attention to in the coming months.

    1. CONVICTED BITCOIN INVESTORS

    We can put investor conviction into perspective by looking at the number of unique Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.01, 0.1 and 1 bitcoin. This data shows that bitcoin adoption continues to grow with a growing number of unique addresses holding at least these amounts of bitcoin. While it is entirely possible for individual users to hold their bitcoin in multiple addresses, the growth of unique Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.01, 0.1 and 1 bitcoin indicate that more users than ever before are buying bitcoin and holding it in self-custody.

    Unique bitcoin addresses continues to grow across the board.

    Another promising metric is the amount held by long-term holders, which has increased to almost 14 million bitcoin. Long-term holder supply is calculated using a threshold of a 155-day holding period, after which dormant coins become increasingly unlikely to be spent. As of now, 72.49% of the bitcoin in circulation is not likely to be sold at these prices.

    Long-term holder supply reached 72.52% of the circulating bitcoin supply.

    There is a large subset of bitcoin investors who are accumulating the digital asset no matter the price. In a December 2022 interview on “Going Digital,” Head of Market Research Dylan LeClair said, “You have people all over the world that are acquiring this asset and you have a huge and growing cohort of people that are price-agnostic accumulators.”

    With a growing number of unique addresses holding bitcoin and such a significant amount of bitcoin being held by long-term investors, we are optimistic for bitcoin’s advancement and rate of adoption. There are many variables that demonstrate the potential for asymmetric returns as demand for bitcoin increases and adoption increases worldwide.

    2. TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET

    During monetization, a currency goes through three phases in order: store of value, medium of exchange and unit of account. Bitcoin is currently in its store-of-value phase as demonstrated by the long-term holder metrics above. Other assets that are frequently used as stores of value are real estate, gold and equities. Bitcoin is a better store of value for many reasons: it is more liquid, easier to access, transport and secure, easier to audit and more finitely scarce than any other asset with its hard-cap limit of 21 million coins. For bitcoin to acquire a larger share of other global stores of value, these properties need to remain intact and prove themselves in the eyes of investors.

    Estimations of global stores of wealth.

    As readers can see, bitcoin is a tiny fraction of global wealth. Should bitcoin take even a 1% share from these other stores of value, the market cap would be $5.9 trillion, putting bitcoin at over $300,000 per coin. These are conservative numbers from our viewpoint because we estimate that bitcoin adoption will happen gradually, and then suddenly.

    3. TRANSFER VOLUME

    When looking at the amount of value that was cleared on the Bitcoin network throughout its history, there is a clear upward trend in USD terms with a heightened demand for transferring bitcoin this year. In 2022, there was a change-adjusted transfer volume of over 556 million bitcoin settled on the Bitcoin network, up 102% from 2021. In USD terms, the Bitcoin network settled just shy of $15 trillion in value in 2022. 

    Bitcoin transfer volume was higher than ever in USD terms.

    Bitcoin’s censorship resistance is an extremely valuable feature as the world enters into a period of deglobalization. With a market capitalization of only $324 billion, we believe bitcoin is severely undervalued. Despite the drop in price, the Bitcoin network transferred more value in USD terms than ever before.

    4. RARE OPPORTUNITY IN BITCOIN’S PRICE

    By looking at certain metrics, we can analyze the unique opportunity investors have to purchase bitcoin at these prices. The bitcoin realized market cap is down 18.8% from all-time highs, which is the second-largest drawdown in its history. While the macroeconomic factors are something to keep in mind, we believe that this is a rare buying opportunity.

    The realized cap drawdown in 2022 was the second largest in bitcoin’s history.

    Relative to its history, bitcoin is at the phase of the cycle where it’s about as cheap as it gets. Its current market exchange rate is approximately 20% lower than its average cost basis on-chain, which has only happened at or near the local bottom of bitcoin market cycles.

    Current prices of bitcoin are in rare territory for investors looking to get in at a low exchange rate. Historically, purchasing bitcoin during these times has brought tremendous returns in the long term. With that said, readers should consider the reality that 2023 likely brings about bitcoin’s first experience with a prolonged economic recession.

    5. MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

    As we move into 2023, it’s necessary to recognize the state of the geopolitical landscape because macro is the driving force behind economic growth. People around the world are experiencing a monetary policy lag effect from last year’s central bank decisions. The U.S. and EU are in recessionary territory, China is proceeding to de-dollarize and the Bank of Japan raised its target rate for yield curve control. All of these have a large influence on capital markets.

    Nothing in financial markets occurs in a vacuum. Bitcoin’s ascent through 2020 and 2021 — while similar to previous crypto-native market cycles — was very much tied to the explosion of liquidity sloshing around the financial system after COVID. While 2020 and 2021 was characterized by the insertion of additional liquidity, 2022 has been characterized by the removal of liquidity.

    Interestingly enough, when denominating bitcoin against U.S. Treasury bonds (which we believe to be bitcoin’s largest theoretical competitor for monetary value over the long term), comparing the drawdown during 2022 was rather benign compared to drawdowns in bitcoin’s history. 

    As we wrote in “The Everything Bubble: Markets At A Crossroads,” “Despite the recent bounce in stocks and bonds, we aren’t convinced that we have seen the worst of the deflationary pressures from the global liquidity cycle.”

    In “The Bank of Japan Blinks And Markets Tremble,” we noted, “As we continue to refer to the sovereign debt bubble, readers should understand what this dramatic upward repricing in global yields means for asset prices. As bond yields remain at elevated levels far above recent years, asset valuations based on discounted cash flows fall.” Bitcoin does not rely on cash flows, but it will certainly be impacted by this repricing of global yields. We believe we are currently at the third bullet point of the following playing out:

    Source: Dylan LeClair

    6. BITCOIN MINING AND INFRASTRUCTURE

    While the multitude of negative industry and worrying macroeconomic factors have had a major dampening on bitcoin’s price, looking at the metrics of the Bitcoin network itself tell another story. The hash rate and mining difficulty gives a glimpse into how many ASICs are dedicating hashing power to the network and how competitive it is to mine bitcoin. These numbers move in tandem and both have almost exclusively gone up in 2022, despite the significant drop in price.

    Bitcoin mining difficulty continues to rise.

    Bitcoin hash rate continues to rise.

    By deploying more machines and investing in expanded infrastructure, bitcoin miners demonstrate that they are more bullish than ever. The last time the bitcoin price was in a similar range in 2017, the network hash rate was one-fifth of current levels. This means that there has been a fivefold increase in bitcoin mining machines being plugged in and efficiency upgrades to the machines themselves, not to mention the major investments in facilities and data centers to house the equipment.

    Because the hash rate increased while the bitcoin price decreased, miner revenue took a beating this year after a euphoric rise in 2021. Public miner stock valuations followed the same path with valuations falling even more than the bitcoin price, all while the Bitcoin network’s hash rate continued to rise. In the “State Of The Mining Industry: Survival Of The Fittest,” we looked at the total market capitalization of public miners which fell by over 90% since January 2021.

    The market cap of all public mining equities has dropped by 9

    We expect more of these companies to face challenging conditions because of the skyrocketing global energy prices and interest rates mentioned above.

    7. INCREASING SCARCITY

    One way to analyze bitcoin’s scarcity is by looking at the illiquid supply of coins. Liquidity is quantified as the extent to which an entity spends their bitcoin. Someone that never sells has a liquidity value of 0 whereas someone who buys and sells bitcoin all the time has a value of 1. With this quantification, circulating supply can be broken down into three categories: highly liquid, liquid and illiquid supply.

    Illiquid supply is defined as entities that hold over 75% of the bitcoin they deposit to an address. Highly liquid supply is defined as entities that hold less than 25%. Liquid supply is between the two. This illiquid supply quantification and analysis was developed by Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder and CTO of Glassnode.

    Bitcoin’s illiquid supply continues to grow.

    2022 was the year of getting bitcoin off exchanges. Every recent major panic became a catalyst for more individuals and institutions to move coins into their own custody, find custody solutions outside of exchanges or sell off their bitcoin entirely. When centralized institutions and counterparty risks are flashing red, people rush for the exit. We can see some of this behavior through bitcoin outflows from exchanges.

    In 2022, 572,118 bitcoin worth $9.6 billion left exchanges, marking it the largest annual outflow of bitcoin in BTC terms in history. In USD terms, it was second only to 2020, which was driven by the March 2020 COVID crash. 11.68% of bitcoin supply is now estimated to be on exchanges, down from 16.88% back in 2019. 

    Exchanges saw a massive decrease in the bitcoin balances on their platforms.

    Bitcoin balance on exchanges decreased in 2022.

    These metrics of an increasingly illiquid supply paired with historic amounts of bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges — ostensibly being removed from the market — paint a different picture than what we’re seeing with the factors outside of the Bitcoin network’s purview. While there are unanswered questions from a macroeconomic perspective, bitcoin miners continue to invest in equipment and on-chain data shows that bitcoin holders aren’t planning to relinquish their bitcoin anytime soon.

    CONCLUSION

    The varying factors detailed above give a picture for why we are long-term bullish on the bitcoin price going into 2023. The Bitcoin network continues to add another block approximately every 10 minutes, more miners keep investing in infrastructure by plugging in machines and long-term holders are unwavering in their conviction, as shown by on-chain data.

    With bitcoin’s ever-increasing scarcity, the supply side of this equation is fixed, while demand is likely to increase. Bitcoin investors can get ahead of the demand curve by averaging in while the price is low. It’s important for investors to take the time to learn how Bitcoin works to fully understand what it is they are investing in. Bitcoin is the first digitally native and finitely scarce bearer asset. We recommend readers learn about self-custody and withdraw their bitcoin from exchanges. Despite the negative news cycle and drop in bitcoin price, our bullish conviction for bitcoin’s long-term value proposition remains unfazed.

    *  *  *

    For the full report, follow this link to subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine PRO. Our team of experts covers macroeconomics, on-chain data, derivatives markets, the bitcoin mining industry & more to unpack the most important market trends.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 16:30

  • House Republicans Prepare To Execute Emergency Strategy For Breaching Debt Limit
    House Republicans Prepare To Execute Emergency Strategy For Breaching Debt Limit

    House Republicans are preparing to give the Treasury Department guidance if the White House and Congress can’t agree to lift the nation’s debt ceiling.

    The plan was part of the private deal struck between House conservatives and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in order for McCarthy to win speakership, according to Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), who helped broker the deal. Roy told the Washington Post that McCarthy agreed to adopt a payment prioritization plan by the end of the first quarter of the year.

    According to the Post, the emergency contingency plan will need to include major spending cuts from the Biden administration, in exchange for which Republicans will sign off on raising the current limit of $31.4 trillion before the Treasury Department can’t borrow any more.

    On Friday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the Treasury department will enact “extraordinary measures” next week so the government can keep its payment obligations – however she couldn’t guarantee that the US will make it beyond early June without default.

    Also on Friday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre made clear that the administration will not negotiate.

    In the preliminary stages of being drafted, the GOP proposal would call on the Biden administration to make only the most critical federal payments if the Treasury Department comes up against the statutory limit on what it can legally borrow. For instance, the plan is almost certain to call on the department to keep making interest payments on the debt, according to four people familiar with the internal deliberations who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations. House Republicans’ payment prioritization plan may also stipulate that the Treasury Department should continue making payments on Social Security, Medicare and veterans benefits, as well as funding the military, two of the people said. –WaPo

    That said, Democrats are preparing to push back on the plan, and will likely note that any hypothetical proposal to triage Social Security, Medicare and benefits for veterans and the military would still leave out ‘huge swaths of critical federal expenditures on things such as Medicaid, food safety inspections, border control and air traffic control,’ etc. Democrats will also likely accuse Republicans of pandering to bondholders, which include Chinese banks, vs. Americans.

    “Any plan to pay bondholders but not fund school lunches or the FAA or food safety or XYZ is just target practice for us,” said one senior Democratic aide.

    In other Kevin McCarthy news, the newly minted speaker may be trying to win back the MAGA crowd, announcing on Thursday that he’s open to the idea of “expunging” one or both of former President Trump’s impeachments.

    As the Epoch Times notes,

    When asked about the possibility of erasing the impeachments during a Jan. 12 press conference at the Capitol, McCarthy replied that he would “have to look” at the situation, saying, “I understand why members would want to bring that forward.”

    “Our first priority is to get our economy back on track, secure our borders, make our streets safe again, give parents the opportunity to have a say in their kids’ education, and actually hold government accountable,” he added. “But I understand why individuals want to do it, and we’d look at it.”

    Trump was first impeached by the House in December 2019 over a phone call he had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He was charged with abuse of power for allegedly pressuring Zelenskyy to investigate a political opponent, and with obstruction of Congress, but was ultimately acquitted of those charges by the Senate.

    In 2021, Trump was impeached again for alleged “incitement of insurrection” following the Jan. 6 Capitol breach. Again, he was acquitted.

    Previous Expungement Attempts

    Last year, then-Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) led House Republicans’ attempts to expunge Trump’s impeachment record, introducing a resolution to erase the former president’s 2019 impeachment in March.

    “So, what we’re doing with the resolution is just simply saying, ‘Hey, listen, Congress made a mistake,’” Mullin, now a senator, said at the time. “‘We impeached a president under Article One, Section Two, that shouldn’t have ever taken place.’”

    In May, Mullin followed up the first bill with a second resolution to expunge Trump’s 2021 impeachment. That bill (pdf), citing 2020 election irregularities and the impeachment’s rushed nature, held that the impeachment process had failed to prove that the former president had committed “high crimes and misdemeanors” or engaged in an insurrection.

    Although both of Mullin’s resolutions garnered some Republican support, neither was ever considered by the Democrat-controlled House.

    A ‘Political Hoax’

    Trump, for his part, has maintained that both the impeachments and the Jan. 6 Select Committee’s subsequent criminal referrals were simply partisan attempts to “sideline” him and prevent him from holding elected office again.

    “The Fake charges made by the highly partisan Unselect Committee of January 6th have already been submitted, prosecuted, and tried in the form of Impeachment Hoax # 2,” the former president noted on Dec. 19 after the committee referred him to the Justice Department for prosecution.

    In February 2020, after his first acquittal by the Senate, Trump was asked by reporters about the potential of a future expungement.

    “That’s a very good question,” he said. “Should they expunge the impeachment in the House? They should because it was a hoax. It was a total political hoax.”

    At the time, it was McCarthy who floated the idea, vowing to erase the impeachment if the Republican Party regained control of the House and he became speaker.

    “I don’t think it should stay on the books,” McCarthy said.

    Despite opposition from several Trump-aligned Republicans, McCarthy achieved his goal of becoming speaker of the House—with Trump’s backing—last week.

    After a contentious week of intraparty negotiations, McCarthy secured the speakership in the 15th vote, attributing the victory to the former president’s support.

    “I do want to especially thank President Trump,” he told reporters on Jan. 7. “I don’t think anybody should doubt his influence. He was with me from the beginning.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 16:00

  • The Gas Stove Scare Is A Fraud Created By Climate Change Authoritarians
    The Gas Stove Scare Is A Fraud Created By Climate Change Authoritarians

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

    In the past I have often tried to take a big picture approach to the issues facing the American public and how there is almost always a deeper connection between a variety of political and economic events. And, what has become increasingly clear to me is that in order to understand government actions and geopolitics, you must always ask yourself “Who benefits?”

    The bottom line is this – At the heart of nearly every conflict and every crisis the same group of power mongers usually benefits, and they have taken a keen interest in the climate change narrative in particular. But like I said, this is the big picture. Right now I’d like to take a look at a relatively small issue and how the little dominoes lead up to a bigger con game and a bigger disaster. Let’s talk about gas stoves…

    Frankly, I don’t care about what my stove uses to cook with as long as it works. That said, around 38% of US households use natural gas for cooking and heating. That’s a significant percentage of people that rely on gas based energy for their daily needs. Here’s the problem, though – Natural gas is not politically correct these days. Nearly all carbon emitting energy sources have been marked by climate activists and western governments as a threat that needs to be erased between 2030 to 2050.

    Globalist institutions and climate change grifters have put natural gas on the naughty list, but there are a couple of realities that must be addressed. First, as noted, a vast portion of the western world including the US and Europe rely on natural gas for numerous energy applications. Ban natural gas and civilization faces an immediate plunge in economic activity, as well as much higher prices on all remaining energy sources due to increasing demand. There is NO green energy solution that can fill the same roll as gas.

    All you have to do is look at Europe and the UK today and see how they are struggling with vastly higher costs due to sanctions on Russian gas exports. It’s a mess, and they are lucky that the winter has so far been rather mild, because the moment things freeze, they are in trouble. There are not enough alternative energy resources available to fulfill Europe’s shortages if the temperatures plummet.

    But what does this have to do with banning gas stoves in the US? Isn’t that a health issue rather than an environmental issue? No, it’s not a health issue, it’s a climate agenda issue being rebranded as a health issue.

    There has been a coordinated government and media blitz on the gas stove narrative this week, with an avalanche of claims that natural gas causes everything from asthma in children to a slowdown in cognitive development. What is the evidence for these claims? The Biden Administration and the agency weighing a potential ban, the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), have not given specific sources yet.

    The assertions are most likely rooted in a single study published in December by the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health in December. The group is privately funded and this particular study on gas stoves was led by RMI, a non-profit research entity that advocates for aggressive green policies and works to “transform global energy systems across the real economy.” The two lead authors, Talor Gruenwald and Brady Seals, are RMI researchers who have contributed to the group’s “carbon-free buildings” initiative.

    In other words, the study is written by people with a built in bias, and since science these days is now being linked to activism, no single study funded by a private ideological group can be trusted. RMI is not only part of the climate cult, they also promote “equity” theory and general woke politics. These concepts and real science cannot coexist.

    The American Gas Association made this exact point in a responding statement, noting that the study’s testing did not include real life appliance usage, and:

    “Ignored [previous] literature, including one study of data collected from more than 500,000 children in 47 countries that ‘detected no evidence’ of an association between the use of gas as a cooking fuel and either asthma symptoms or asthma diagnosis.”

    The push for a gas stove ban is not about health, it’s about control. It is an attempt to falsely link carbon emissions and energy products to negative health concerns as a way to trick the public into supporting decarbonization out of fear. But why revert to such a strategy? Is the climate cult really that desperate?

    Yes, yes they are.

    You see, the truth about climate change is beginning to spread to the masses, and the debunking of anti-carbon propaganda is picking up momentum. Here are the facts:

    The average global temperature is not climbing to dangerous levels. The Earth’s temps have increased according to the NOAA by less than 1°C in the past century.

    There is no evidence that this kind of temperature increase represents a threat to the environment or human health. In fact, the Earth’s temps have been much higher than they are today multiple times in the Earth’s history long before man-made carbon emissions were a thing. The official temperature record used by climate scientists only goes back to the 1880s – That is a TINY sliver of time in comparison to the epic lifespan of the Earth’s atmosphere.

    And what about all those arguments that there are more dangerous weather patterns emerging due to global warming? That’s a lie. There is no significant difference between storm patterns today compared to 100 years ago.

    And let’s not forget that global warming propaganda has been going on a long time now. Back when I was a kid in the 1980s, they used to tell us in school that large parts of continents would be under water by the year 2000. This obviously never happened and likely never will. Many of us who grew up in that era are still waiting around for the icecaps to melt.

    The climate change agenda is about giving governments and globalist institutions the power to bottleneck energy usage, tax carbon emissions and thus control almost every aspect of our daily lives. Without the free flow of carbon based energy almost all industry will collapse. Green energy is inefficient and cannot fill the void left behind by gas, petroleum and coal. All that would be left is a minimal manufacturing base, minimal food production and a shrinking human population. Those that survive would be slaves to carbon restrictions; it would be a living nightmare.

    There are very rich and powerful people out there that greatly benefit from such a scenario.

    The globalists have been scheming to use environmentalism as an excuse for centralization since at least 1972, when the Club Of Rome, a think-tank attached to the UN, published a treatise titled ‘The Limits To Growth’. Twenty years later they would publish a book titled ‘The First Global Revolution.’ In that document they specifically recommend using global warming as a vehicle:

    “In searching for a common enemy against whom we can unite, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like, would fit the bill. In their totality and their interactions these phenomena do constitute a common threat which must be confronted by everyone together. But in designating these dangers as the enemy, we fall into the trap, which we have already warned readers about, namely mistaking symptoms for causes. All these dangers are caused by human intervention in natural processes, and it is only through changed attitudes and behaviour that they can be overcome. The real enemy then is humanity itself.”

    The statement comes from Chapter 5 – The Vacuum, which covers their desire for global government. The quote is relatively clear; a common enemy must be conjured in order to trick humanity into uniting under a single banner – The globalist banner. And the elites see environmental catastrophe, caused by mankind itself, as the best possible motivator.

    How does this agenda start? It starts with gas stoves. It starts with something we might see as small, and then it grows from there. Pretty soon, they will be banning natural gas for heating. They will ban wood stoves. They will artificially induce gas price inflation. Then they will implement carbon taxation on manufacturers which will in turn cause prices to rise for consumers. Then there will be carbon taxes for the average individual. They will use whatever means at their disposal to make it impossible to use “fossil fuels.”

    Again, it’s not about health, it’s about control. It’s always about control. The gas stove issue is a fraud; one domino in a long chain that leads to carbon totalitarianism.

    *  *  *

    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 15:30

  • Why Was Hunter Paying Joe Biden $50k Per Month To Rent House Where Classified Documents Found?
    Why Was Hunter Paying Joe Biden $50k Per Month To Rent House Where Classified Documents Found?

    A Thursday tweet from the NY Post‘s Miranda Devine containing a background check for Hunter Biden has people asking questions.

    “The now-52-year-old began listing the Wilmington home as his address following his 2017 divorce from ex-wife Kathleen Buhle — even falsely claiming he owned the property on a July 2018 background check form as part of a rental application,” the Post reported.

    Of note, this is the same house where classified documents were found.

    Yet, upon closer inspection, Hunter lists the “Monthly Rent” as $49,910 – or roughly $550,000 for the 11 months he indicated he lived there?

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    A Zillow search reveals that the most expensive home currently for rent in Wilmington, Delaware is going for $6,000 per month.

    According to Town & Country magazine, Biden’s home is worth around $2 million.

    Could Hunter, a crackhead, have accidentally listed the annual rent payment to his father for the house which contained classified documents? Sure. But why was his wealthy ex-VP dad charging him rent in the first place, when Hunter was allegedly broke?

    Trending Politics asks the quiet part out loud; was this Hunter’s way of funneling money to his father?

    After Hunter’s divorce was finalized in May of 2017, he was included in an email from his business partner James Gilliar about a venture with Chinese state-funded energy company CEFC China Energy. The email stated that Hunter and his partners would receive 20% of the shares in the new business, with 10% going to Hunter’s uncle James Biden and the other 10% being “held by H for the big guy.”

    Tony Bobulinski, another one of Hunter’s former business partners, claims that he had a meeting with Joe Biden regarding the CEFC venture on May 2, 2017, and that the president was the individual referred to as the “big guy” in Gilliar’s email. Additionally, Gilliar himself confirmed that Joe Biden was the “big guy” mentioned in a message found on the laptop.

    And as the NY Post reports, “The following year, federal investigators began looking into whether Hunter and his business associates violated tax and money laundering laws during their dealings in China and other countries. Emails and other records related to the deals were found on the laptop, which Hunter dropped off at a Delaware repair shop in 2019 and never reclaimed.“

    “I hope you all can do what I did and pay for everything for this entire family for 30 years,” Hunter told his daughter Naomi in January, 2019. “It’s really hard. But don’t worry, unlike pop, I won’t make you give me half your salary.”

    As the Post continues:

    The laptop doesn’t contain any direct evidence of such money transfers but shows Hunter was routinely on the hook for household expenses — including repairs to the Wilmington home.

    In December 2020, weeks after his father was elected president, Hunter Biden announced that his “tax affairs” were being investigated by federal authorities in Delaware, and said he was “confident that a professional and objective review of these matters will demonstrate that I handled my affairs legally and appropriately.”

    Recent reports have indicated investigators believe they have enough evidence to charge the first son with tax crimes — as well as with lying about his drug abuse on a federal form so he could buy a gun in 2018.

    So, was the $49,910 ‘monthly’ rent a simple crackhead mistake when that was in fact the annual payment amount, or did Hunter create “Exhibit A” for any honest prosecutors to pursue? We aren’t holding our breath on the latter.

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 15:00

  • "For The Record"
    “For The Record”

    By Peter Tchir, chief strategist at Academy Securities

    Since it is the start of the year, it seems like as good of a time as any to put a few things on record before diving into the meat of this T-Report. There are things that I want to refer back to over the course of the year because they relate to the business of strategy.

    For the Record #1

    Everyone hates strategists who claim to have called every move correctly. I can guarantee you that if someone called every move right in the markets, they wouldn’t be sitting in front of a computer typing missives because they’d be bazillionaires!

    A close second for the most annoying behavior by strategists is touting their good calls and completely ignoring their bad calls (Bitcoin is back to $21,000 this weekend).

    Some of this is human nature. We all “want” to be right and all tend to emphasize the “good” rather than the “bad”.

    For the Record #2

    Many of our readers have P&Ls. That is a discipline like no other and while I try to think of our strategies in terms of P&L generation, risk management, etc., it isn’t the same as having an actual P&L.

    Having said that, we have people who live and die by daily/weekly/monthly P&Ls (which is ideal for Bloomberg IB as a form of communication). We also have people with weekly/monthly/quarterly timeframes (the T-Report is geared for these people). Finally, we have some who even think in years (which seems important for corporate strategy, but it is difficult to manage a portfolio around).

    For the Record #3

    One thing that strategists dislike is when people discuss their “idea” with them but don’t realize that it was the strategist’s “idea”! That is largely a failing on the strategist’s part. Either the work isn’t getting distributed well enough (a good time to check mailing lists, ensure things aren’t going to junk, etc.), the work/titles are too confusing (though I’m not sure I could live without writing I Like Big Banks and I Can Not Lie), or I just need to write more clearly.

    Last weekend’s A Simple View is part of the process of addressing this issue going forward. 8 Seconds served the function of letting people know that our positioning had changed, but maybe the title was confusing (though the image of trying to ride a wild bull felt “informative” to me).

    Finally, while the Fed is apolitical, I couldn’t help but send out the Shifting Politics of Inflation on Friday, because that has the potential to shift the national narrative and could either influence the Fed or (at least in the case of the WSJ) might be the conduit the Fed is using to signal a change.

    On the Record

    We will “subtly” shift from “for the record” to “on the record”.

    Rachel Washburn hosted a fun and interesting webinar on Friday that started with World War III possibilities but ended in a better place. Generals (ret.) Walsh and Marks were spot on, and I was able to add a few points on how their geopolitical input is impacting our macro market and economic outlooks (replay will be available shortly).

    Academy was one of three firms that participated in Friday’s half-hour Real Yield show on Bloomberg TV. You know a show covers a lot of fixed income ground when CLO ETFs get mentioned and it seemed to be a fluid part of the conversation (rather than forced). Some really interesting views and ideas from the other guests made this a great show to watch if you have about 20 minutes or so this long weekend.

    On the Road

    My favorite part of my job has kicked off in earnest! From D.C. and Princeton last week, to San Francisco, Palo Alto, Newport Beach, and San Diego this week, seeing clients is back in vogue. There is nothing more fun than sitting with people in a variety of jobs/industries and sharing ideas. I’m even excited for Minneapolis in early Feb (it will be cold, but should be fun) and look forward to another opportunity to speak to a group of municipal issuers in Alabama!

    Travel and seeing such a diverse group of people allows me to learn about so many aspects of the economy and it makes my job so much easier!

    Consensus is Neutral

    Back to the meat of the report. If I’ve done a good job explaining myself this year, you should know that I’m basically neutral on stocks, bonds, and credit here. That view seems to be rather consensus.

    The CNN Fear & Greed Index has bumped up to 63 (which is technically in greed territory, but just above neutral).

    The AAII Sentiment Survey is in neutral territory (though very close to being too pessimistic). What was most interesting is that the number of bears has dropped from 52.3% to 39.9% since December 21st, but almost all of those people piled into the “neutral” camp as the number of bulls remained quite low.

    I’m not big on technical charts, but this chart sticks out so much that I couldn’t help but use it to illustrate my “neutral” point (I’m not opposed to charts, but they just aren’t my first choice of things to highlight).

    The S&P has snuggled right up against the 200 day moving average. From my limited understanding of charts, this is a crucial level. The S&P has failed to breach the 200 DMA since the sell-off took hold in late March. It could easily be rejected again. On the other hand, if it breaks through, we could see buyers emerge. Not only from all of those positioned as “neutral”, but from bears and particularly CTAs which have a reputation for being formulaic/algorithmic and tied to big levels (like the 200 DMA).

    So maybe I should refine my view from simply “neutral” to “neutral, waiting to pounce on the next move – if only I knew what that next move would be”.

    Even though at the start of today’s report we wrote about providing more “clarity” on views, I’d lean towards owning some tail risk in either direction! If we fail around here, many could press shorts and get out of recently acquired risk. If we break above, the opposite happens.

    Yes, at some level this happens all the time, but the “neutral” positioning coupled with a major, very visible level (which happens to coincide with the big round number of 4,000) makes the next few days particularly interesting for me!

    What’s Next for Inflation?

    I think that inflation will continue to fall and we will see more monthly CPI prints that are negative and even Core CPI will have a negative print this quarter.

    Many disagree, but I think that with Q4 coming in at 0.8% (3.2% simply annualized) we’ve “beaten” inflation.

    What Will the Fed Do?

    I’d be shocked if they did more than 25 bps at their next meeting.

    Yes, they will talk about “financial conditions” (aka the S&P 500), but they are starting to get the political and media aircover to back down from 50 bps and some of their higher terminal rate calls.

    There are still over 2 weeks until their meeting and we will get more data. I’m betting that if anything, that data steers them to “25 bps and done” messaging (probably too late for them to do zero, which is what I think that they should do).

    The Fed will NOT be quick to cut. They should stop hiking, but even I’m not advocating for cuts (it would have been easier if they started on the glide path to stopping rate hikes a few meetings ago).

    They will continue to do QT. This, to me, acts as an anchor on markets as every month we need to absorb more bonds from the system than if QE had not started in the first place. Why QT gets so little attention still baffles me.

    The Bank of Japan is expected to let the 10-year yield rise to as much as 1%. I view this as “on par” with QT. It is another drag on asset prices in the U.S. as Japanese investors can allow some of their FX hedged/dollar denominated bonds to roll-off when the hedges come due and just buy domestic bonds. It isn’t alarming and won’t be all at once, but it adds to the pressures of finding dollar denominated asset buyers. With the 10-year bund at 2.16% this is already happening in Europe, but it also tells me that 1% is probably getting to the low end of the range that the JGB 10-year would naturally trade at given their domestic savings rate and still low levels of inflation.

    What Will the Economy Do?

    Yes, jobs still seem good, but that isn’t as important as it should be. What I’m seeing is a couple industries acting as the epicenter of the problems for the economy!

    Big tech, fueled by everyone (from private equity, to vehicle manufacturers) took 5 steps forward in the past few years! Will we see one or two steps back as companies become more cost conscious and not every tech investment will be cheered by equity holders. Have manufacturers changed what chips they rely on as they’ve battled supply chains? Without a doubt, in 5 years technology will play an even bigger role in society and the economy, but it doesn’t mean that we haven’t already priced too much in.

    I see a potential problem in this market that it is radiating out. The local economies are incredibly interconnected.

    The homebuilder ETF (XHB) is up almost 20% in the past 3 months! This is a contrarian play that I probably should have gotten on board with, but this is an industry still in the early stages of digesting the spike in mortgage rates and overall loss of wealth in this country. I’m keeping an eye on this.

    We will get some clarity and resolution on the inventory side of the equation in the coming weeks as we get the regular data and we also have companies discussing it in detail. I’m not optimistic, but maybe this will be a pleasant surprise.

    Services could be the key. Was the print that we highlighted last weekend an anomaly or a harbinger of more bad news? Even as a bear on the economy, that data seemed surprisingly weak, so I expect something not quite so bad, but “less good” than most bulls are building into their forecast.

    What About Earnings?

    I will start by quoting my friend Peter Boockvar. He “guarantees” every quarter that about 70-75% of companies will beat earnings. His point, as I take it, is that expectations get pushed down to the point that most companies beat them, so there is little to be gleaned from the parade of “beats” that we will get.

    We will all be listening to how CEOs portray their vision for the rest of the year. Their views will mean a lot, but they usually do.

    My gut is that they will be more cautious than expectations, in part because some of the “wiggle” room that they had late last year has already been used. Also, they are in jobs where they want to outperform expectations, and even if your company is doing well, you might be cautious because you see companies around you going through tougher times.

    The one thing I “know” for certain is that we will get a lot of chatter about stock repurchases post earnings announcements and unless something changes, that will help support equities.

    It’s a Moving Picture, not a Snapshot

    The biggest mistake people may be making is looking at the data as though it is static.

    If we take a snapshot of recent data, it is easy to craft a “soft” landing narrative.

    But we don’t live in a static world. Decisions made months ago (on the policy side, on the household side, on the corporate side, etc.) take time to play out. It would be fun if economists could drive the economy like a jet ski, but it is a huge tanker, and once underway it is difficult to turn or even change speed.

    So, I 100% agree that the current data has a “soft” landing feel, but I don’t believe there is a chance that the weakening of economic data (alongside lower inflation) will stop here!

    We had to be setting up to “catch” the fall here, and if anything, we are still pushing on this well past the point we should be.

    Maybe I’m wrong here, but simple Newtonian physics tells us that an object, once set in motion, will stay in motion and that is what the Fed has done and we are going to blow right through the “soft” landing station and enter into some unsafe territory.

    Bottom Line

    Stocks

    • Neutral.
    • Own options that cost very little, but generate profits if the S&P 500 breaks 4,100 or 3,900 by the end of next week (yes, resolution will be rapid and I hope that I don’t miss it between now and when futures open, let alone in the actual market).
    • “Gun to head” I’d bet that the rally continues and we test 4,200 on the S&P 500 which means I’ve got to get back on that bucking bronco (or I got off too early).
    • We will break 2022’s lows, but that isn’t my gut for the next move.

    Rates

    • The 10-year at 3.5% isn’t particularly appealing. We should see corporate issuance spike after earnings announcements. 3.5% is quite inverted versus the front end with a Fed that will hike at least 25 bps more. The BOJ won’t help things. Positioning has become a bit bullish on bonds (at least from the chatter I hear). So, even in my deflationary view, I would not be long 10s here.
    • I like 5-years better than other points. It is “only” 3.6%, so not much of a pick-up, but I like the risk/reward better in 5s. Maybe, the 2-year is more obvious, but it has so little duration and if I’m right and the Fed won’t hike (but also won’t cut), then there isn’t a lot of room.
    • For now, I’d be short Treasuries/sovereign debt. Yes, I think that deflation will be the discussion point of this quarter, but for now, I just don’t see much value in sovereign debt.

    Credit

    • A “weird” barbell. I’m most concerned about leveraged loans (more so than high yield, because of the type of issuer that tapped that market, versus the bond market), but I like “senior” tranches of CLOs (anything IG rated and even BB). It is difficult to go lower in the cap structure of CLOs given the fact that the building blocks are my least favorite part of the credit market. Prices of various CLO tranches have bounced nicely in the past couple of months and new deals could accumulate some good collateral at really interesting levels.
    • I’m “meh” on high yield and even investment grade.
      • High yield is so hated but while it is interesting, the combination of rate risk and credit risk isn’t a screaming buy to me (though certainly more of a buy than leveraged loans).
      • Investment grade is ok, but I think if Treasury yields rise, spreads will contract by 25% or so of the move in Treasuries, so I expect higher overall yields and lower dollar prices. If sovereign yields drop, spreads will widen on at least a 50% basis (if not closer to 100%). So, in a falling yield environment, IG yields won’t change much and dollar prices won’t do a lot (kind of a difficult risk/reward to pitch).
    • So, I am equal weight IG and underweight sovereign debt. I am underweight leveraged loans and would use those funds to buy CLO tranches or some high yield bonds instead.

    That’s what I’ve got for now. Will be an interesting week or two and it is difficult being so bearish on the economy, but neutral (and maybe “gun to the head” bullish) on risk in the very short-term.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 14:30

  • Adam Schiff Admits Possible National Security Jeopardized With Biden Documents
    Adam Schiff Admits Possible National Security Jeopardized With Biden Documents

    You know it’s bad when…

    No lessor liar than Rep. Adam Schiff (R-Calif.), the now former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, admitted this morning that it’s possible national security was jeopardized after President Joe Biden’s lawyers confirmed classified documents were found in various locations.

    “I don’t think we can exclude the possibility without knowing more of the facts,” the California Democrat said of the Biden documents when pressed by “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl about any national security risks.

    “We have asked for an assessment in the intelligence community of the Mar-a-Lago documents,” Schiff said.

    “I think we ought to get that same assessment of the documents found in the think tank as well as the home of President Biden. I’d like to know what these documents were. I’d like to know what the [intelligence community’s] assessment is, whether there was any risk of exposure and what the harm would be and whether any mitigation needs to be done.”

    Of course, Schiff was quick to get back on track with the narrative, as echoing the media and most other Democrats, the Russia collusion hoaxer asserted that Biden’s and Trump’s cases are different because Biden, he said, is cooperating.

    “The Biden approach was very different in the sense that it looks that it was inadvertent that these documents were at these locations,” Schiff said.

    “There was no effort to hold onto them, no effort to conceal them, no effort to obstruct the Justice Department’s investigation.”

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    It’s worth noting, however, that the National Archives had confirmed last year that Trump’s lawyers were cooperating with the agency before the FBI raided his Florida residence in August.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 01/15/2023 – 14:00

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Jan 15

Today’s News 15th January 2023

  • How Can We Trust Institutions That Lied?
    How Can We Trust Institutions That Lied?

    Authored by Abir Ballan via The Brownstone Institute,

    Trust the Authorities, trust the Experts, and trust the Science, we were told.

    Public health messaging during the Covid-19 pandemic was only credible if it originated from government health authorities, the World Health Organization, and pharmaceutical companies, as well as scientists who parroted their lines with little critical thinking. 

    In the name of ‘protecting’ the public, the authorities have gone to great lengths, as described in the recently released Twitter Files (1,2,3,4,5,6,7) that document collusion between the FBI and social media platforms, to create an illusion of consensus about the appropriate response to Covid-19. 

    They suppressed ‘the truth,’ even when emanating from highly credible scientists, undermining scientific debate and preventing the correction of scientific errors. In fact, an entire bureaucracy of censorship has been created, ostensibly to deal with so-called MDM— misinformation (false information resulting from human error with no intention of harm); disinformation (information intended to mislead and manipulate); malinformation (accurate information intended to harm). 

    From fact-checkers like NewsGuard, to the European Commission’s Digital Services Act, the UK Online Safety Bill and the BBC Trusted News Initiative, as well as Big Tech and social media, all eyes are on the public to curtail their ‘mis-/dis-information.’ 

    “Whether it’s a threat to our health or a threat to our democracy, there is a human cost to disinformation.” — Tim Davie, Director-General of the BBC

    But is it possible that ‘trusted’ institutions could pose a far bigger threat to society by disseminating false information?

    Although the problem of spreading false information is usually conceived of as emanating from the public, during the Covid-19 pandemic, governments, corporations, supranational organisations and even scientific journals and  academic institutions have contributed to a false narrative. 

    Falsehoods such as ‘Lockdowns save lives’ and ‘No one is safe until everyone is safe’ have far-reaching costs in livelihoods and lives. Institutional false information during the pandemic was rampant. Below is just a sample by way of illustration.

    The health authorities falsely convinced the public that the Covid-19 vaccines stop infection and transmission when the manufacturers never even tested these outcomes. The CDC changed its definition of vaccination to be more ‘inclusive’ of the novel mRNA technology vaccines. Instead of the vaccines being expected to produce immunity, now it was good enough to produce protection. 

    The authorities also repeated the mantra (at 16:55) of ‘safe and effective’ throughout the pandemic despite emerging evidence of vaccine harm. The FDA refused the full release of documents they had reviewed in 108 days when granting the vaccines emergency use authorisation. Then in response to a Freedom of Information Act request, it attempted to delay their release for up to 75 years. These documents presented evidence of vaccine adverse events. It’s important to note that between 50 and 96 percent of the funding of drug regulatory agencies around the world comes from Big Pharma in the form of grants or user fees. Can we disregard that it’s difficult to bite the hand that feeds you?

    The vaccine manufacturers claimed high levels of vaccine efficacy in terms of relative risk reduction (between 67 and 95 percent). They failed, however, to share with the public the more reliable measure of absolute risk reduction that was only around 1 percent, thereby exaggerating the expected benefit of these vaccines. 

    They also claimed “no serious safety concerns observed” despite their own post-authorisation safety report revealing multiple serious adverse events, some lethal. The manufacturers also failed to publicly address the immune suppression during the two weeks post-vaccination and the rapidly waning vaccine effectiveness that turns negative at 6 months or the increased risk of infection with each additional booster. Lack of transparency about this vital information denied people their right to informed consent. 

    They also claimed that natural immunity is not protective enough and that hybrid immunity (a combination of natural immunity and vaccination) is required. This false information was necessary to sell remaining stocks of their products in the face of mounting breakthrough cases (infection despite vaccination). 

    In reality, although natural immunity may not completely prevent future infection with SARS-CoV-2, it is however effective in preventing severe symptoms and deaths. Thus vaccination post-natural infection is not needed. 

    The WHO also participated in falsely informing the public. It disregarded its own pre-pandemic plans, and denied that lockdowns and masks are ineffective at saving lives and have a net harm on public health. It also promoted mass vaccination in contradiction to the public health principle of ‘interventions based on individual needs.’ 

    It also went as far as excluding natural immunity from its definition of herd immunity and claimed that only vaccines can help reach this end point. This was later reversed under pressure from the scientific community. Again, at least 20 percent of the WHO’s funding comes from Big Pharma and philanthropists invested in pharmaceuticals. Is this a case of he who pays the piper calls the tune? 

    The Lancet, a respectable medical journal, published a paper claiming that Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) — a repurposed drug used for the treatment of Covid-19 —  was associated with a slight increased risk of death. This led the FDA to ban the use of HCQ to treat Covid-19 patients and the NIH to halt the clinical trials on HCQ as a potential Covid-19 treatment. These were drastic measures taken on the basis of a study that was later retracted due to the emergence of evidence showing that the data used was false. 

    In another instance, the medical journal Current Problems in Cardiology retracted —without any justification— a paper showing an increased risk of myocarditis in young people following the Covid-19 vaccines, after it was peer-reviewed and published. The authors advocated for the precautionary principle in the vaccination of young people and called for more pharmacovigilance studies to assess the safety of the vaccines. Erasing such findings from the medical literature not only prevents science from taking its natural course, but it also gatekeeps important information from the public.

    A similar story took place with Ivermectin, another drug used for the treatment of Covdi-19, this time potentially implicating academia. Andrew Hill stated (at 5:15) that the conclusion of his paper on Ivermectin was influenced by Unitaid which is, coincidentally, the main funder of a new research centre at Hill’s workplace —the University of Liverpool. His meta-analysis showed that Ivermectin reduced mortality with Covid-19 by 75 percent. Instead of supporting Ivermectin use as a Covid-19 treatment, he concluded that further studies were needed.

    The suppression of potentially life-saving treatments was instrumental for the emergency use authorization of the Covid-19 vaccines as the absence of a treatment for the disease is a condition for EUA (p.3).

    Many media outlets are also guilty of sharing false information. This was in the form of biased reporting, or by accepting to be a platform for public relations (PR) campaigns. PR is an innocuous word for propaganda or the art of sharing information to influence public opinion in the service of special interest groups. 

    The danger of PR is that it passes for independent journalistic opinion to the untrained eye. PR campaigns aim to sensationalise scientific findings, possibly to increase consumer uptake of a given therapeutic, increase funding for similar research, or to increase stock prices. The pharmaceutical companies spent $6.88 billion on TV advertisements in 2021 in the US alone. Is it possible that this funding influenced media reporting during the Covid-19 pandemic? 

    Lack of integrity and conflicts of interest have led to an unprecedented institutional false information pandemic. It is up to the public to determine whether the above are instances of mis- or dis-information. 

    Public trust in the Media has seen its biggest drop over the last five years. Many are also waking up to the widespread institutional false information. The public can no longer trust ‘authoritative’ institutions that were expected to look after their interests. This lesson was learned at great cost. Many lives were lost due to the suppression of early treatment and an unsound vaccination policy; businesses ruined; jobs destroyed; educational achievement regressed; poverty aggravated; and both physical and mental health outcomes worsened. A preventable mass disaster. 

    We have a choice: either we continue to passively accept institutional false information or we resist. What are the checks and balances that we must put in place to reduce conflicts of interest in public health and research institutions? How can we decentralise the media and academic journals in order to reduce the influence of pharmaceutical advertising on their editorial policy?

    As individuals, how can we improve our media literacy to become more critical consumers of information? There is nothing that dispels false narratives better than personal inquiry and critical thinking. So the next time conflicted institutions cry woeful wolf or vicious variant or catastrophic climate, we need to think twice.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 23:30

  • Visualizing The Biggest Global Risks Of 2023
    Visualizing The Biggest Global Risks Of 2023

    The profile of risks facing the world is evolving constantly. Events like last year’s invasion of Ukraine can send shockwaves through the system, radically shifting perceptions of what the biggest risks facing humanity are.

    Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley created the graphic below to summarize findings from the Global Risks Report, an annual publication produced by the World Economic Forum (WEF).

    It provides an overview of the most pressing global risks that the world is facing, as identified by experts and decision-makers.

    These risks are grouped into five general categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal, and technological.

    Let’s dive into this year’s findings.

    2023’s Risk Profile

    In the lower–middle portion of the chart are the risks that could have serious impacts—such as attacks involving nuclear or biological weapons—but that were highlighted by fewer experts.

    Over in the top-right quadrant of the chart are the risks that a number of experts mentioned, and that are causing a strain on society. Not surprisingly, the top risks are related to issues that impact a wide variety of people, such as the rising cost of living and inflation. When staples like food and energy become more expensive, this can fuel unrest and political instability—particularly in countries that already had simmering discontent. WEF points out that increases in fuel prices alone led to protests in an estimated 92 countries.

    One risk worth watching is geoeconomic confrontation, which includes sanctions, trade wars, investment screening, and other actions that have the intent of weakening the countries on the receiving end. Efforts to mitigate this risk result in some of the key themes we see for the coming year. One example is the onshoring of industries, and “friend-shoring”, which is essentially moving operations to a foreign country that has more stable relations with one’s home country.

    How Prepared Are We?

    It’s one thing to be aware of risks, but it’s quite another to have the ability to head off negative events when they come to fruition.

    The chart below is a look at how prepared we are globally to deal with specific types of risks that could arise in the next few years.

    At the top of the chart are risks that experts feel society is better equipped to handle with current plans and resources. Moving towards the bottom of the chart are risks that experts feel are more of a threat since mechanisms for handling them are weak or non-existent.

    Experts are generally more confident in solutions in the military or healthcare domains. Environmental and societal challenges leave policy and decision-makers less confident.

    One telling observation from the data above is that none of the risks left a majority of experts feeling neither confident in our ability to prevent the risk from occurring, or prepared to mitigate its impact. As the 2020s are shaping up to be a turbulent decade, that could be a cause for concern.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 23:00

  • ATF Declares Braced Pistols Illegal, Demands Registration Or Face Jail Time
    ATF Declares Braced Pistols Illegal, Demands Registration Or Face Jail Time

    Submitted by Gun Owners Of America.,

    The ATF has finally unveiled its “final rule” regarding pistol braces.

    This rule, also called “Factoring Criteria for Firearms with Attached Stabilizing Braces,” could result in serious criminal charges for owners of up to 40 million guns if they do not register their braced firearms with ATF.  

    GOA’s Legal & Federal Affairs team are currently going over the final rule with a fine-toothed comb, but here’s what we know so far.  

    According to the final rule, gun owners who possess braced firearms will have 120 days to destroy, reconfigure, register, turn in their firearms to ATF, or face NFA violations which include $250,000 in fines and a hefty prison sentence. 

    In addition, ATF has released a list titled “Commercially available firearms equipped with a stabilizing brace that are short-barreled rifles.”

    ATF claims that the list is representative of how the agency will apply the definition of “rifle” to firearms equipped with a stabilizing brace.

    The immediate logistics of this final rule have been called into question by even the anti-gun corporate media. It is a well-known fact that ATF’s NFA division consistently misses its own performance benchmarks and routinely sees wait times for ATF form approvals and tax stamps in the 300-400 day range. If 40 million firearms are added to that waitlist, it is logical to assume that gun owners forced to comply with this unconstitutional registration scheme may wait years in limbo.

    But don’t despair! Gun Owners of America is currently pursuing multiple actions to defeat this unconstitutional ATF overreach on America’s 2nd Amendment Rights. 

    The first is to work with members of Congress to overturn the rule via the Congressional Review Act.

    The Congressional Review Act allows members of Congress to introduce a Joint Resolution of Disapproval to reverse any agency rule or action they deem unconstitutional.

    Of course, if Congress doesn’t cooperate, GOA will not give up. We are prepared to file a lawsuit immediately and fight this subversion of the lawmaking process in the court system. 

    Erich Pratt, Gun Owners of America’s Senior Vice President, had this to say: 

    “This administration continues to find new ways to attack gun owners, and this time their target is brace-equipped firearms that allow persons with disabilities to safely and effectively use pistols. We will continue to work with our industry partners to amplify the disapproving voices in the firearms industry, and the Gun Owners Foundation, our sister legal arm, will be filing suit in the near future.”  

    Aidan Johnston, GOA’s Director of Federal Affairs, added:  

    “President Biden just initiated the largest federal gun registration scheme in our nation’s history without even the passage of a new law. GOA is actively working with Congress to pass a resolution blocking this rule under the Congressional Review Act, and we continue to lobby lawmakers to support Rep. Clyde and Sen. Marshall’s Stop Harassing Owners of Rifles Today (SHORT) Act. If President Biden will not sign such legislation, then Congress must defund this rogue agency.”  

    GOA has a history of overturning these unconstitutional rule changes. In 2020, when the ATF under the Trump administration attempted to regulate pistol braces, GOA rallied our members to take action. GOA members flooded the proposed rule with comments. Because of this, ATF abandoned its attempt and withdrew the rulemaking. 

    While GOA is prepared to take the ATF to court over this issue, we’re interested in cutting the ATF’s ability to regulate Short Barreled Rifles, Short Barreled Shotguns, and similar types of firearms.   

    To strip the ATF of its ability to regulate these types of firearms, we’re targeting the core of the issue, the National Firearms Act. The outdated and unconstitutional NFA allows ATF the leeway to make these unconstitutional rule changes. We’re working with Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas and Congressman Andrew Clyde of Georgia to pass the SHORT Act, which would remove Short Barreled Rifles and Shotguns from the NFA. 

    But we can’t do it alone. We need your help fighting back against the rogue ATF and the anti-gun Biden administration. Help us fight by calling your Senators and Congress members and asking them to support the SHORT Act and the Joint Resolution of Disapproval. 

    *   *   * 

    We’ll hold the line for you in Washington. We are No Compromise. Join the Fight Now.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 22:30

  • USDA Reveals US Corn-Harvested Acres At 2008 Levels Amid Megadrought
    USDA Reveals US Corn-Harvested Acres At 2008 Levels Amid Megadrought

    Last year was a bad year for corn — the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report shows drought conditions and extreme weather wreaked havoc on croplands. 

    USDA unexpectedly slashed its outlook for domestic corn production amid a severe drought across the western farm belt. Farmers in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas were forced to abandon drought-plagued fields. 

    The agency estimated farmers harvested 79.2 million acres, a decline of 1.6 million acres versus the previous estimate — the smallest acres harvest since 2008. 

    The unexpected cut to US harvested corn acres means grain supplies are a lot tighter than realized. A report Thursday showed the corn area in the world’s largest producer is at the smallest since 2008 with crops failing in states such as Texas and Nebraska. That’s due to persistent drought conditions in the western part of the country that could also hit harvests for wheat plants that are currently dormant for the winter. — Bloomberg

    The crop-failed lands reduced total harvest corn acreage to levels not seen since 2008. 

    Less acreage tightens supply and might continue to put a bid under corn prices. 

    Global food prices remain at crisis levels.

    Here’s the current drought situation across the farm belt. 

    Corn production woes from the US don’t bode well in the fight to crush food inflation. It seems as if the prices for our food will remain high well through 2023. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 22:00

  • Doctor Calls For Withdrawal Of Pfizer, Moderna COVID-19 Vaccines Following New Research
    Doctor Calls For Withdrawal Of Pfizer, Moderna COVID-19 Vaccines Following New Research

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    An American doctor is joining the calls for the withdrawal of the messenger RNA COVID-19 vaccines, pointing to new research that highlights a connection between the shots and adverse events.

    Doses of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine and vaccination record cards await pediatric patients at UW Medical Center – Roosevelt in Seattle, Wash., on June 21, 2022. (David Ryder/Getty Images)

    Dr. Joseph Fraiman, a doctor based in Louisiana who also conducts research on COVID-19 and other health issues, says it’s time to halt the administration of the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines until new clinical trials prove the benefits from the vaccines outweigh the harms.

    The new research, including a reanalysis of the trials for the vaccines, raise concerns about whether the benefits from the vaccines outweigh the harms, according to the doctor.

    “I don’t see how anyone couldn’t be certain that the benefits are outweighing the harms on a population level, or even in the high-risk groups. I don’t see the evidence to support that claim,” Fraiman told The Epoch Times. “But I also can’t say that there’s evidence to support that it’s potentially more harmful, but there’s also uncertainty here. … Given that scenario, I believe that people should not be given the [vaccines] outside of a clinical trial, because we need to figure out … if their benefits outweigh harm or if harm outweighs benefits.”

    “The only thing that can answer that question is going to be a randomized trial,” he added.

    Pfizer and Moderna did not respond to requests for comment.

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which cleared the shots and has never stopped promoting them, did not return an inquiry.

    The Data

    Fraiman led a study that reanalyzed the original Pfizer and Moderna trials. He and his colleagues concluded in a study published following peer review that the vaccinated were at higher risk of serious adverse events.

    That’s one data point. Another is the identification of safety signals, or adverse events, that are potentially caused by the vaccines but require further study. The FDA revealed in December 2022 that the Pfizer vaccine was linked to blood clotting in elderly individuals. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which recommends the vaccines for virtually all Americans, found hundreds of other signals in its research, according to records obtained by The Epoch Times.

    Several serious problems that can lead to death have been causally linked, or proven to be caused by the vaccines. They include myocarditis, or heart inflammation.

    While U.S. health officials have repeatedly downplayed the severity of myocarditis and a related condition, pericarditis, German researchers who dug into the deaths of 25 people who died suddenly at home after vaccination ruled out every potential cause except for vaccination for five of the people. They reported their results in a study that was published after peer review in late 2022.

    “Given alternative causes are unlikely to cause myocarditis within one week of vaccination, this is essentially conclusive evidence that we’re seeing sudden cardiac deaths from the vaccines,” Fraiman said.

    Fraiman also noted that excess mortality, or deaths from all causes, have risen during the pandemic—with spikes correlating with the introduction of the vaccines. Vaccines may not have caused the additional deaths, he says, but some researchers, including British professors Norman Fenton and Martin Neil, have examined the data and found a signal that the vaccines were linked to at least some of the excess deaths. U.S. officials say some of the deaths may be from COVID-19.

    Initial Thoughts

    When the vaccines were first introduced, Fraiman backed giving them to the elderly and others at high risk from COVID-19, or people of all ages with serious underlying health conditions. He says he also did not recommend against vaccination for any ages, though he told younger family members he was not sure if it was a good idea to get a jab.

    Fraiman also says the vaccines likely reduced hospitalizations in the first two quarters of 2021, recalling how he did not see a single vaccinated person in his hospital until June of that year.

    When he and the other scientists discovered the vaccinated were at higher risk of serious problems, he shifted to a stance of the harms likely outweighing the benefits among healthy people.

    With the new evidence of harm, along with Omicron being less dangerous and more likely to evade vaccine immunity, Fraiman questions whether the benefits outweigh the serious harms even among the elderly and otherwise infirm.

    “I see the likelihood that the harm could outweigh the benefit in the group who stood to benefit the most from the vaccine,” he said.

    Standards Fall

    Clinical trial data on the vaccines have been hard to come by, especially trials not run by the vaccine makers themselves, and the standards for the trials have been lowered over time.

    The FDA authorized shots for children based on immunobridging, or trial data that found the vaccines triggered a similar antibody response in kids than that in adults. For the new bivalent boosters, created because the original vaccines have been providing much lower levels of protection against Omicron and its subvariants, no clinical data, not even antibody measurements, was provided at all. Months later, that data is still not available to the public.

    Some observational studies have estimated the boosters provide subpar protection against infection and solid protection, at least initially, against hospitalization. Randomized, controlled trials are typically considered superior.

    Fraiman recommends withdrawing the vaccines and U.S. officials going to the vaccine makers and asking them to demonstrate the benefits outweigh the harms in light of the changed dynamics of the pandemic. The trials should feature investigators looking closely at each COVID-19 hospitalization to distinguish whether they were caused by COVID-19, or the COVID-19 diagnosis was incidental. That distinction is known widely as being hospitalized, or dying, with COVID-19 versus from COVID-19.

    The trial would take five or six months, similar to the original ones, Fraiman says.

    Other Calls

    Some countries, such as Denmark, meanwhile, have stopped offering booster shots to certain segments of the population. A growing number of experts, meanwhile, are calling for the administration of the Moderna and Pfizer shots, which are by far the most administered in the United States, to be halted.

    The group includes Dr. Aseem Malhotra, a British doctor who turned against the vaccines in 2022 due to the growing evidence of side effects. Malhotra’s citations included the Moderna and Pfizer trials, which showed no reduction in mortality or severe disease, and the research led by Fraiman.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 21:30

  • FEMA Distributed Nonsense Emergency Brochures To Native Alaskans
    FEMA Distributed Nonsense Emergency Brochures To Native Alaskans

    FEMA hired a California government contractor to translate disaster-assistance information into two native Alaska languages, but all it and the natives got was a big heap of nonsense. 

    After a typhoon hammered the west coast of Alaska in September, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) hired a Berkeley-based company, Accent on Languages, to translate instructions for applying for disaster aid. 

    Damage from September’s Typhoon Merbok, which had water surging 17 miles inland (Emily Schwing/KYUK) 

    FEMA quickly turned the company’s work into tri-fold, glossy brochures that left native Alaskans utterly perplexed, as they encountered phrases like: 

    • “Your husband is a polar bear, skinny.”
    • “Tomorrow he will go hunting Alaska very early, and will (bring) nothing”  
    • “When she said so, the dog ran farther off from the curtain.”

    University of Alaska Fairbanks linguist Gary Holton says one of the translations is a random assortment of phrases copied from a compilation of far-eastern Russian folklore: “Yupik Eskimo Texts from the 1940s.” 

    “They clearly just grabbed the words from the document and then just put them in some random order and gave something that looked like Yup’ik but made no sense,” Holton told AP. He summed up the work as a “word salad.” 

    In a publicly-posted letter, Accent on Languages CEO Caroline Lee said her firm will reimburse FEMA $5,116. “We make no excuses for erroneous translations, and we deeply regret any inconvenience this has caused to the local community.” 

    Lee said when the “horrifying,” botched translations came to her attention, that her company hired a new team of translators to do the project over again. FEMA has fired the company. 

    Former Assistant Secretary of Indian Affairs Tara Sweeney wants more than a reimbursement, saying the company is guilty of fraud — “and you can’t put a price on the impact of denying services to vulnerable communities because of misinformation.” The grandstanding Sweeney even called for congressional hearings. 

    We wonder if Accent on Languages was itself a victim of fraud on the part of whomever it assigned to do the original translation. 

    Associated Press presented the fiasco as new evidence of systemic racism. Reporter Mark Thiessen called it “an ugly reminder for Alaska Natives of the suppression of their culture and languages from decades past,” and quoted Sweeney as she linked the bogus translations to her mother being beaten in school for speaking her native tongue.  

    Like so many government contractors with ownership and leadership optimized for affirmative-action-driven contract awards, Accent on Languages touts itself as a “female, minority-owned business.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 21:00

  • COVID-Narrative Dissenters File Lawsuit Against Legacy Media Over Coordinated Censorship
    COVID-Narrative Dissenters File Lawsuit Against Legacy Media Over Coordinated Censorship

    Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A coalition of outspoken critics and skeptics of the mainstream narratives on COVID-19 has brought an antitrust lawsuit against some of the world’s largest news organizations, accusing them of working in collaboration to suppress dissenting voices surrounding the pandemic.

    Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. attends the 2018 Robert F. Kennedy Human Rights’ Ripple Of Hope Awards at New York Hilton Midtown in New York City on Dec. 12, 2018. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images)

    The lawsuit (pdf), filed on Tuesday in a federal court in Texas, targets The Washington Post, the British Broadcasting Corp (BBC), The Associated Press (AP), and Reuters—all of which are members of the “Trusted News Initiative (TNI),” a self-described “industry partnership” formed in 2020 among legacy media giants and big tech companies.

    “By their own admission, members of the TNI have agreed to work together, and have in fact worked together, to exclude from the world’s dominant internet platforms rival news publishers who engage in reporting that challenges and competes with TNI members’ reporting on certain issues relating to COVID-19 and U.S. politics,” the complaint reads.

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a critic of the Biden administration’s COVID-19 vaccination policies, led the lawsuit. He is joined by Creative Destruction Media, Trial Site News, Truth About Vaccines founders Ty and Charlene Bollinger, independent journalist Ben Swann, Health Nut News publisher Erin Elizabeth Finn, Gateway Pundit founder Jim Hoft, Dr. Joseph Mercola, and Ben Tapper, a chiropractor.

    The plaintiffs, the lawsuit alleges, are among the many victims of the TNI’s “group boycott” tactic, defined as a coordinated effort to facilitate monopoly by cutting off the competitors’ access to supplies and necessities.

    In this case, the TNI members are accused of engaging in group boycott—in concert with their big tech partners—against small, independent news publishers by denying them access to internet platforms they need to compete and even survive in the online news market.

    “As a result of the TNI’s group boycott, [the plaintiffs] have been censored, de-monetized, demoted, throttled, shadow-banned, and/or excluded entirely from platforms like Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Instagram, and Linked-In,” the lawsuit states.

    For example, the lawsuit claims, TNI members have been working with Big Tech to censor what they condemned as “misinformation,” such as reports that COVID may have originated in a laboratory in the Chinese city of Wuhan, that the COVID vaccines do not prevent infection, and that vaccinated people may still transmit COVID to others.

    This alleged effort to establish a dominant media narrative by shutting off nonestablishment outlets, according to the lawsuit, has violated both federal antitrust and freedom of speech laws.

    “Federal antitrust law has its own name for this kind of ‘industry partnership,’” the lawsuit states. “It’s called a group boycott and is a per se violation of the Sherman Act.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 20:30

  • At NCAA Convention, Athletes Oppose Trans Intrusion In Women's Sports
    At NCAA Convention, Athletes Oppose Trans Intrusion In Women’s Sports

    The NCAA convention in San Antonio had some unwelcome publicity on Thursday, in the form of dozens of protesters speaking out against the collegiate athletics organization’s insertion of transgender athletes into women’s competition. 

    Among the demonstrators against NCAA’s policies was former Kentucky Wildcat swimmer Riley Gaines, who had to compete against transgender athlete Lia Thomas, the University of Pennsylvania Quaker who was crowned the NCAA women’s champion in the 500-yard freestyle. 

    Former Kentucky swimmer Riley Gaines (second from right) outside the NCAA convention in San Antonio (AP Photo/Darren Abate) 

    “Today, we intend to personally tell the NCAA to stop discriminating against female athletes by handing them a petition that we have garnered nearly 10,000 signatures on in just a couple of days,” said Gaines. 

    The NCAA has allowed transgender athletes to cross gender lines since 2010. Full implementation of a 2022 update of that policy was set to happen by August 2023, but, amid growing pushback from women and those with empathize with them, the NCAA Board of Governors his week opted to delay it to the 2023-24 academic year “to address operational considerations.” 

    “I want to show the NCAA their discrimination against female athletes like me does not go unnoticed,” protestor and former Lee University volleyball player Macy Petty told Daily Caller. “I will not stand by as they allow biological men to take over female athletics.” Petter had to compete against a trans athlete in USA Volleyball qualifiers.

    Screenshot from a page at Our Bodies Our Sports site organizing the NCAA convention protest

    While Thursday’s action against the NCAA’s transgender policies consisted of speeches and signs, opponents of the status quo are likely to take the NCAA to court with the aim of proving its policies violate Title IX, the legislation that, among other things, requires that female collegiate athletes be afforded the same athletic opportunities as men at the same school. 

    This week, attorneys for the Independent Council on Women’s Sports (ICONS), a network of current and former collegiate and professional women athletes and their families, published a letter to the NCAA, declaring ICONS was putting the NCAA “on official notice that your practice of allowing male athletes on women’s teams constitutes illegal discrimination against women on the basis of sex…it is impossible to provide equal opportunities for both sexes (as required by Title IX) without female-only teams.” 

    At the protest, alluding to potential legal avenues, Alliance Defending Freedom attorney Christiana Kiefer said:

    “I think that could look like a Title IX complaint. And I think it could look like even universities starting to actually push back against the NCAA and saying, ’Hey, we have a legal obligation to protect fair athletic opportunities for female athletes and if we fail to do that, you’re kind of binding our hands and not allowing us to fulfill our legal obligations to the female athletes at our schools.’”

    The resistance to NCAA’s transgender-athlete campaign now includes state governments that have barred transgender athletes from women’s sports. Earlier this month, a federal judge upheld West Virginia’s ban, saying that “one’s sex…dictates physical characteristics that are relevant to athletics.” 

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    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 20:00

  • Detailed Report Exposes CIA-Backed 'Zero Units' In Afghanistan
    Detailed Report Exposes CIA-Backed ‘Zero Units’ In Afghanistan

    Via Consortium News/ProPublica,

    In 2019, reporter Lynzy Billing returned to Afghanistan to research the murders of her mother and sister nearly 30 years earlier. Instead, in the country’s remote reaches, she stumbled upon the C.I.A.-backed Zero Units, who conducted night raids — quick, brutal operations designed to have resounding psychological impacts while ostensibly removing high-priority enemy targets.

    So, Billing attempted to catalog the scale of civilian deaths left behind by just one of four Zero Units, known as the 02, over a four year period. 

    Road to Jalalabad, Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan, 2008. Flickr

    The resulting report represents an effort no one else has done or will ever be able to do again. Here is what she found:

    • At least 452 civilians were killed in 107 raids. This number is almost certainly an undercount. While some raids did result in the capture or death of known militants, others killed bystanders or appeared to target people for no clear reason.
    • A troubling number of raids appear to have relied on faulty intelligence by the C.I.A. and other U.S. intelligence-gathering services. Two Afghan Zero Unit soldiers described raids they were sent on in which they said their targets were chosen by the United States.
    • The former head of Afghanistan’s intelligence agency acknowledged that the units were getting it wrong at times and killing civilians. He oversaw the Zero Units during a crucial period and agreed that no one paid a consequence for those botched raids. He went on to describe an operation that went wrong: “I went to the family myself and said: ‘We are sorry. … We want to be different from the Taliban.’ And I mean we did, we wanted to be different from the Taliban.”
    • The Afghan soldiers weren’t alone on the raids; U.S. special operations forces soldiers working with the C.I.A. often joined them. The Afghan soldiers Billing spoke to said they were typically accompanied on raids by at least 10 U.S. special operations forces soldiers. “These deaths happened at our hands. I have participated in many raids,” one of the Afghans said, “and there have been hundreds of raids where someone is killed and they are not Taliban or ISIS, and where no militants are present at all.”
    • Military planners baked potential “collateral damage” into the pre-raid calculus — how many women/children/noncombatants were at risk if the raid went awry, according to one U.S. Army Ranger Billing spoke to. Those forecasts were often wildly off, he said, yet no one seemed to really care. He told Billing that night raids were a better option than airstrikes but acknowledged that the raids risked creating new insurgent recruits. “You go on night raids, make more enemies, then you gotta go on more night raids for the more enemies you now have to kill.”

    Afghan commandos during a night raid, December 2007. Wiki Commons

    • Because the Zero Units operated under a CIA program, their actions were part of a “classified” war, with the lines of accountability so obscured that no one had to answer for operations that went wrong. And U.S. responsibility for the raids was quietly muddied by a legal loophole that allows the C.I.A. — and any U.S. soldiers lent to the agency for their operations — to act without the same level of oversight as the American military.
    • Congressional aides and former intelligence committee staffers said they don’t believe Congress was getting a complete picture of the C.I.A.’s overseas operations. Lawyers representing whistleblowers said there is ample motivation to downplay to Congress the number of civilians killed or injured in such operations. By the time reports get to congressional oversight committees, one lawyer said, they’re “undercounting deaths and overstating accuracy.”
    • U.S. military and intelligence agencies have long relied on night raids by forces like the 02 unit to fight insurgencies around the globe. The strategy has, again and again, drawn outrage for its reliance on sometimes flawed intelligence and civilian death count. In 1967, the C.I.A.’s Phoenix Program famously used kill-capture raids against the Viet Cong insurgency in south Vietnam, creating an intense public blowback. Despite the program’s ignominious reputation — a 1971 Pentagon study found only 3 percent of those killed or captured were full or probationary Viet Cong members above the district level — it appears to have served as a blueprint for future night raid operations.
    • Eyewitnesses, survivors and family members described how Zero Unit soldiers had stormed into their homes at night, killing loved ones at more than 30 raid sites Billing visited. No Afghan or U.S officials returned to investigate. In one instance, a 22-year-old named Batour witnessed a raid that killed his two brothers. One was a teacher and the other a university student. He told Billing the Zero Unit strategy had actually made enemies of families like his. He and his brothers, he said, had supported the government and vowed never to join the Taliban. Now, he said, he’s not so sure.
    • Little in the way of explanation was ever provided to the relatives of the dead — or to their neighbors and friends — as to why these particular individuals were targeted and what crimes they were accused of. Families who sought answers from provincial officials about the raids were told nothing could be done because they were Zero Unit operations. “They have their own intelligence and they do their own operation,” one grieving family member remembered being told after his three grandchildren were killed in an airstrike and night raid. “The provincial governor gave us a parcel of rice, a can of oil and some sugar” as compensation for the killings. At medical facilities, doctors told Billing they’d never been contacted by Afghan or U.S. investigators or human rights groups about the fate of those injured in the raids. Some of the injured later died, quietly boosting the casualty count.

    In a statement, C.I.A. spokesperson Tammy Thorp said, “As a rule, the U.S. takes extraordinary measures — beyond those mandated by law — to reduce civilian casualties in armed conflict, and treats any claim of human rights abuses with the utmost seriousness.” She said any allegations of human rights abuses by a “foreign partner” are reviewed and, if valid, the C.I.A. and “other elements of the U.S. government take concrete steps, including providing training on applicable law and best practices, or if necessary terminating assistance or the relationship.” Thorp said the Zero Units had been the target of a systematic propaganda campaign designed to discredit them because “of the threat they posed to Taliban rule.”

    The Department of Defense did not respond to questions about Zero Unit operations.

    Burying civilians in Afghanistan, via Ariana News

    With a forensic pathologist, Billing drove hundreds of miles across some of the country’s most volatile areas — visiting the sites of more than 30 raids, interviewing witnesses, survivors, family members, doctors and village elders.

    To understand the program, she met secretly with two Zero Unit soldiers over the course of years, wrangled with Afghanistan’s former spy master in his heavily fortified home and traveled to a diner in the middle of America to meet with an Army Ranger who’d joined the units on operations.

    She also conducted more than 350 interviews with current and former Afghan and American government officials, Afghan commanders, U.S military officials, American defense and security officials and former C.I.A. intelligence officers, as well as U.S. lawmakers and former oversight committee members, counterterrorism and policy officers, civilian-casualty assessment experts, military lawyers, intelligence analysts, representatives of human rights organizations, doctors, hospital directors, coroners, forensic examiners, eyewitnesses and family members — some of whom are not named in the story for their safety.

    Jan. 1, 2011: U.S. soldier watching as a helicopter provides cover to an explosive ordnance disposal team in Laghman Province, Afghanistan. US Army image

    While America’s war in Afghanistan may be over, there are lessons to be learned from what it left behind. Billing writes:

    “The American government has scant basis for believing it has a full picture of the Zero Units’ performance. Again and again, I spoke with Afghans who had never shared their stories with anyone. Congressional officials concerned about the CIA’s operations in Afghanistan said they were startled by the civilian death toll I documented.

    As my notebooks filled, I came to realize that I was compiling an eyewitness account of a particularly ignominious chapter in the United States’ fraught record of overseas interventions.

    Without a true reckoning of what happened in Afghanistan, it became clear the U.S. could easily deploy the same failed tactics in some new country against some new threat.”

    Read her full report here.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 19:30

  • CDC Says Stroke Concerns Over Pfizer Jab Warrant Investigation
    CDC Says Stroke Concerns Over Pfizer Jab Warrant Investigation

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that data collected on the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine merits an investigation into potential stroke risks for people aged 65 and older.

    “Following the availability and use of the updated (bivalent) COVID-19 vaccines, CDC’s Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), a near real-time surveillance system, met the statistical criteria to prompt additional investigation into whether there was a safety concern for ischemic stroke in people ages 65 and older who received the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent,” reads a Friday statement.

    “Rapid-response investigation of the signal in the VSD raised a question of whether people 65 and older who have received the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, Bivalent were more likely to have an ischemic stroke in the 21 days following vaccination compared with days 22-44 following vaccination,” the release continues.

    The bivalent vaccine includes “a component of the original virus strain to provide broad protection against COVID-19 and a component of the omicron variant to provide better protection against COVID-19 caused by the omicron variant,” according to the FDA.

    The agency notably did not see the same “preliminary signal” that prompted the investigation in the Moderna vaccine.

    The agency added that it’s “very unlikely that the signal in VSD represents a true clinical risk,” and doesn’t recommend any changes to vaccine protocols at this time.

    According to Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), who chairs the House Commmerce Committee, has called on the CDC to “rapidly investigate” the matter.

    “The lack of transparency over the past three years has broken Americans’ trust in our public health agencies,” said McMorris in a Friday statement. “CDC and FDA have systems in place to monitor vaccine safety that have identified this preliminary signal.”

    “Now these agencies must rapidly investigate, in an open and transparent manner, whether or not the vaccine may have contributed to the reported strokes.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 19:00

  • Lawmakers Warn Gas Stove Ban Would Eliminate Affordable Cooking Method
    Lawmakers Warn Gas Stove Ban Would Eliminate Affordable Cooking Method

    Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Lawmakers, particularly on the Republican side of the aisle, are continuing to voice their opposition to the idea of a ban on gas stoves.

    Blue and red gas flames on a kitchen gas stove are pictured on May 16, 2022. (Ida Marie Odgaard/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images)

    Concerns about a gas stove ban have risen after a recent study linked their use to childhood asthma and after U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) Commissioner Richard Trumka Jr. discussed regulating gas stoves in a recent interview with Bloomberg News.

    “This is a hidden hazard,” Trumka told Bloomberg. “Any option is on the table. Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.”

    In a Wednesday press statement, the new chairwoman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), said this proposed ban is the latest example of President Joe Biden’s “war on American energy.”

    “It is not about public safety. It is about telling the American people the federal government knows best and will decide what kind of car they can drive, how they can heat their house, and now how they’re allowed to cook food for their families,” Rodgers said.

    U.S. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) speaks at a House Republican news conference on energy policy at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on March 8, 2022. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    In a similar comment to Fox News, Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.) said, “Consumers should be able to choose how they cook their food, heat their homes and power their cars, and they should be able to do it affordably.”

    Gas Stoves Linked to Childhood Asthma

    A peer-reviewed research paper that was published last month in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, said about 35 percent of homes in the United States use indoor gas-powered stoves.

    The paper said such gas stove use is “associated with an increased risk of current asthma among children” and said about 12.7 percent of current childhood asthma cases in the United States are “attributable to gas stove use.”

    Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) organized a Dec. 22 letter to the CPSC, requesting the agency consider a series of new regulations on gas stoves, such as requiring stoves to be sold with range hoods that meet mandatory performance standards, assessing their efficiency of removing the pollutants.

    “As you know, the CPSC has broad authority under the Consumer Product Safety Act to regulate consumer products that pose an unreasonable risk of injury,” the letter reads. “We urge the Commission to protect consumers from these harmful emissions. The Commission itself expressed concerns over gas stove emissions in 1985. Since then, evidence for the danger of these emissions has only increased.”

    Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) speaks during a hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, Oct. 13, 2020. (Hilary Swift/The New York Times via AP, Pool)

    ‘Unrealistic’

    Several lawmakers opposed to a ban on gas stoves raised concerns that such measures would eliminate an affordable means of cooking and strain the U.S. energy grid with more demands on electricity with consumers having to switch to electric stoves as an alternative.

    “This decision could lead to Americans paying higher electric bills and strain our electric grid even further,” Rep. Daniel Meuser (R-Pa.) told Fox News.

    “As the representative of one of the highest natural gas producing regions in the country, I am once again dismayed by these proposals. Natural gas is among the cleanest, safest, most affordable and abundant form of energy in the United States. Discouraging its use by banning gas stoves is a perplexing and misguided policy.”

    Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Texas) called the idea of banning gas stoves, which are used in millions of American homes, “unrealistic.”

    “Gas stoves are affordable, practical and popular. Democrats are simply grasping at straws to push their Green New Deal agenda,” he said.

    “Americans who are already suffering under record-high inflation can already barely afford to heat their homes this winter, and now the Biden administration wants them to go out and buy a new stove. It’s out of touch and unrealistic.”

    While the negative response to Trumka’s comments about banning gas stoves largely came from Republican lawmakers, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has also voiced his opposition to the idea.

    “This is a recipe for disaster. The federal government has no business telling American families how to cook their dinner,” Manchin said in a Tuesday press statement.

    Republican Bill

    Concerns about a potential ban on gas stoves have inspired a pair of lawmakers to introduce a bill that would preempt any attempted ban.
     
    On Wednesday, Reps. Bill Huizinga (R-Mich.) and Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.) introduced a bill called the “Stop Trying to Obsessively Vilify Energy” (STOVE) Act.

    “The last thing Americans need or want is another big government bureaucratic decision telling us which appliance we can have in our home,” Huizenga said.

    “The STOVE Act is a common-sense measure that will stop bureaucrats from banning gas stoves or ranges. Americans should have the ability to choose the most affordable and most available way to cook food in their own home. It is absolutely ridiculous how out of control and out of touch the nanny state in Washington has become.”

    Regulator Says He’s Not Seeking a Ban

    Members of the CPSC have offered some mixed messaging on their plans to regulate gas-powered stoves.

    After Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.) voiced his opposition to a gas stove ban, Trumka said via Twitter that CPSC “isn’t coming for anyone’s gas stoves” and that regulations would “apply to new products.”

    “For Americans who CHOOSE to switch from gas to electric, there is support available – Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act which includes a $840 rebate,” he said.

    On Wednesday, CPSC Chair Alexander Hoehn-Saric said via Twitter that the regulator has “no proceeding” to impose a ban on gas stoves.

    “Research indicates that emissions from gas stoves can be hazardous, and the CPSC is looking for ways to reduce related indoor air quality hazards,” Hoehn-Saric said via Twitter. “But to be clear, I am not looking to ban gas stoves and the CPSC has no proceeding to do so.”

    “CPSC is researching gas emissions in stoves and exploring new ways to address health risks,” Hoehn-Saric added.

    “CPSC also is actively engaged in strengthening voluntary safety standards for gas stoves. And later this spring, we will be asking the public to provide us with information about gas stove emissions and potential solutions for reducing any associated risks. This is part of our product safety mission – learning about hazards and working to make products safer.”

    Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Texas) speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas at the Hilton Anatole on Aug. 5, 2022. (Bobby Sanchez for The Epoch Times)

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 18:30

  • School Searched 6-Year-Old's Backpack Before He Shot Teacher
    School Searched 6-Year-Old’s Backpack Before He Shot Teacher

    The same day that a 6-year-old boy shot his teacher in a Newport News, Virginia classroom, a school staff member searched his backpack on a tip that the child might be packing heat, school officials disclosed.  

    The revelation occurred during a virtual town hall with parents of Richneck Elementary School. It was first reported by WAVY, which was given access to the video feed by a parent. 

    “The book bag for the student was searched after it was reported that he potentially had a weapon,” said Newport News Superintendent George Parker. “At least one administrator was notified of a possible weapon.”

    Police, however, were not. The search — which failed to find the pistol — took place when the shooter arrived at school around 11:30 am.

    Two and a half hours later, the boy shot 25-year-old first-grade teacher Abby Zwerner in the chest, causing injuries that were initially life-threatening. Her condition has been upgraded to stable. The bullet first passed through her hand, which she’d raised defensively. 

    First-grade teacher Abby Zwerner, seen in the left photo on the campus of her alma mater, James Madison University (Facebook via Metro UK)

    Contrary to initial reports, authorities now say there was no confrontation before the shooting. Zwerner was in the midst of a lesson when the boy suddenly pulled out a handgun at his desk and fired a single shot at her, reports The New York Times. 

    “The firearm was displayed from his person, not from his backpack,” said Newport News Police chief Steve Drew. 

    Zwerner urged her class to flee into the hallway, and another school employee rushed in and restrained the shooter. 

    Police say the 6-year-old used his mother’s 9mm Taurus handgun, which was legally purchased. “The child had obtained that firearm, placed it in his backpack and brought it to school,” said Drew. In Virginia, it’s a misdemeanor crime to leave a loaded gun where a child under 14 can access it. 

    Calling the shooting 100% preventable, the superintendent Parker alluded to pending but unspecified administrative changes at the school, but didn’t specify beyond suggesting the changes are driven by a district review of the incident’s timeline. 

    Newport News Superintendent of Schools George Parker at a Monday press conference on safety measures (AP Photo/John C. Clark)

    The district announced it will install metal detectors at all schools, and is considering the imposition of a clear-backpack requirement at Richneck Elementary and reconstruction of its front entrance. The shooting occurred Jan 6 yet the school still hasn’t reopened for in-person instruction. 

    The New York Times notes that metal detectors are more likely to be found in schools with a high proportion of non-white students. More than half the students in the Newport News Public Schools system are black and nearly a quarter are white. 

    Parent Tom Aman told WAVY that “Empowering our teachers to take back their classrooms and get rid of disruptive students is a start. But once again, it comes back to the culture. If the teachers don’t feel like they’re being heard and if the teachers and the students don’t feel safe, they can’t teach and they can’t learn.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 18:00

  • Macleod: The Evolution Of Credit & Debt In 2023
    Macleod: The Evolution Of Credit & Debt In 2023

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    The evidence strongly suggests that a combined interest rate, economic and currency crisis for the US and its western alliance will continue in 2023.

    This article focuses on credit, its constraints, and why quantitative easing has already crowded out private sector activity. Adjusting M2 money supply for accumulating QE indicates the degree to which this has driven the US tax base into deep recession. And the wider effects on credit in the economy should not be ignored. 

    After a brief partial recovery from the covid crisis in US government finances, they are likely to start deteriorating again due to a deepening recession of private sector activity. Funding these deficits depends on foreign inward investment flows, which are faltering. Rising interest rates and an ongoing bear market make funding from this source hard to envisage.

    Meanwhile, from his public statements President Putin is fully aware of these difficulties, and a consequence of the western alliance increasing their support and involvement in Ukraine makes it almost certain that Putin will take the opportunity to push the dollar over the edge.

    Credit is much more than bank deposits

    Economics is about credit, and its balance sheet twin, debt. Debt is either productive, in which case it can extinguish credit in due course, or it is not, and credit must be extended or written off. Money almost never comes into it. Money is distinguished from credit by having no counterparty risk, which credit always has. The role of money is to stabilise the purchasing power of credit. And the only legal form of money is metallic; gold, silver, or copper usually rendered into coin for enhanced fungibility.

    Credit is created between consenting parties. It facilitates commerce, created to circulate existing commodities, and to transform them into consumer goods. The chain of production requires credit, from miner, grower, or importer, to manufacturer, wholesaler, retailer and customer or consumer. Credit in the production chain is only extinguished when the customer or consumer pays for the end product. Until then, the entire production chain must either have money or arrange for credit to pay for their inputs. 

    Providers of this credit include the widest range of economic actors in an economy as well as the banks. When we talk of the misnamed money supply as the measure of credit in an economy, we are looking at the tip of an iceberg, leading us to think that debt in the form of bank notes and deposit accounts owed to individuals and businesses is the extent of it. Changes in the banking sector’s risk appetite drive a larger change in unrecorded credit conditions. We must accept that changes in the level of officially recognised debt are merely symptomatic of larger changes in payment obligations in the economy. 

    The role of credit is not adequately understood by economists. Keynes’s General Theory has only one indexed reference to credit in the entire book, the vade mecum for all macroeconomists. Even the title includes “money” when it is actually all about credit. Von Mises expounds on credit to a considerable degree in his Human Action, but this is an exception. And even his followers today are often unclear about the distinction between money and credit.

    Economists and commentators have begun to understand that credit is not limited to banks, by admitting to the existence of shadow banking, a loose definition for financial institutions which do not have a banking licence but circulate credit. The Bank for International Settlements which monitors shadow banking appears to suspect shadow banks of creating credit without the requirement of a banking licence. There appears to be a confusion here: the BIS’s starting point is that credit is the preserve of a licenced bank. The mistake is to not understand the wider role of non-bank credit in economic activity.

    But these institutions, ranging from insurance companies and pension funds to various forms of financial intermediaries and agents, unconsciously create credit by allowing time to elapse between a commitment giving rise to an obligation, and its settlement. Even next day settlement is a debt obligation for a buyer, or credit extended by a seller. Delivery against settlement is a credit obligation for both parties in a transaction. Futures, forwards, and options are credit obligations in favour of a buyer, which can be traded. And when a broker insists a client must have a credit in his account before investing, or to deliver securities before selling, credits and obligations are also created.

    Therefore, credit has the same effect as money (which is very rarely used) in every transaction, financial or non-financial. All the debts in the accounts of businesses are part of the circulating medium in an economy, including bills of exchange and other tradable obligations. And at each transfer a new credit, debt, or right of action is created, while others are extinguished.

    A banking system provides a base for further credit expansion because all credit transactions are ultimately settled in bank notes, which are an obligation of the note issuer (in practice today, a central bank) or through the novation of a bank deposit, being an obligation of a commercial bank. Banks are simply dealers in credit. As such, they facilitate not just their own dealings, but all credit creation and expunction. 

    The reason for making the point about the true extent of credit is that it is a mistake to think that the statistical expansion, or contraction of it, conventionally measured by the misnamed money supply, is the true extent of a change in outstanding credit. Central banks in particular act as if they believe that by influencing the height of the visible tip of the credit iceberg, they can simply ignore the consequences for the rest. 

    It is also worth making this point so that we can assess how the economies of the western alliance will fare in the year ahead — the American-led NATO and other nations adhering to its sphere of influence. With signs of bank credit no longer expanding and, in some cases, contracting, and with price inflation continuing at destructive levels and a recession threatened, it is rarely so important to understand credit and its role in an economy. 

    We also need to have a true understanding of credit to assess the prospects for China’s economy, which appears to be set on a different course. Emerging from lockdown and in the light of favourable geopolitical developments while the western alliance is tipping into recession, the prospects for China’s economy are rapidly improving.

    Interest rates in 2023

    That the long-term trend of declining interest rates for the major fiat currencies over the last four decades came to an end in 2021 is now beyond question. That this trend fostered a continuing appreciation of asset values is fundamental to an understanding of the consequences. And that the expansion of bank credit supporting a widening plethora of financial credit has stopped, is now only beginning to be register. If we look at the quarterly rate of change in US M2 money supply, this is now evident.

    Since the Bretton Woods agreement was abandoned in 1971, there has not been as severe a contraction of US dollar bank credit as witnessed today. It follows a massive covid-related spike when the US Government’s budget deficit soared. And its rise and fall is contemporaneous with a collapse in government revenues and soaring welfare costs.

    In fiscal 2020 (to end-September), the Federal Government’s deficit was $3.312 trillion, compared with revenue of $3.42 trillion. It meant that spending was nearly twice tax income. Some of that excess expenditure was helicoptered directly into citizens’ bank accounts. The rest was reflected in bank balances as it was spent into public circulation by the government. Furthermore, from March 2020 the Fed commenced QE at the rate of $120bn per month, adding a total of $2.6 trillion in bank deposits by the end of fiscal 2021. 

    Deflating M2 by QE to get a feel for changes in the aggregate level of bank deposits strictly related to private sector origination tells us that private sector related credit was already contracting substantially in fiscal 2020—2021. This finding is consistent with an economy which suffered a suspension of much activity. This is illustrated in our next chart, taken from January 2020.

    In this chart, accumulating QE is subtracted from official M2 to derive the red line. In practice, one cannot make such a clear distinction, because QE credit goes directly into the financial sector, which is broadly excluded from the GDP calculation. Nevertheless, QE inflates not just commercial bank reserves at the Fed, but their deposit liabilities to the insurance companies, pension funds, and other members of the shadow banking group. A minor portion of QE might relate to the commercial banks themselves, which for practical purposes can be ignored.

    Through QE, state-origination of credit effectively crowds out private sector-origination of credit. A Keynesian critic might dismiss this on the basis that he believes QE stimulates the wider economy. That may be true when a monetary stimulus is first applied, since it takes time for market prices to adjust to the extra quantity of credit. Furthermore, QE stimulates financial market values and not the GDP economy, only affecting it later in a roundabout way.

    But when QE eventually leaks out into the wider economy, it leads to higher prices for consumer goods, confirmed by the dramatic re-emergence of consumer price inflation. Furthermore, regulated banks are limited in their ability to create credit by balance sheet constraints, so to accommodate QE they are necessarily restricted in their credit creation for private sector borrowers.

    Given the far larger quantities of non-bank credit which depend for its facilitation on bank credit, the negative impact on the economy of banks becoming risk averse is poorly understood. It is ignored on the assumption that state-origination of credit through budget deficits stimulates economic activity. What is less appreciated is that QE has already driven the non-government portion of the US economy into a deepening recession, yet to be reflected in government statistics. Furthermore, that the extra credit burden on the commercial banking system has exceeded their collective balance sheet capacity is confirmed by the Fed’s reverse repo facility, which offers deposit facilities additional to the commercial banking system. Currently standing at $2.2 trillion, it represents the bulk of excess credit created by QE since March 2020.

    Adjusted for QE, the falling level of private sector deposits in the M2 statistic is consistent with an economic slump, only concealed statistically by the expansion of state spending and the loss of the dollar’s purchasing power. The economic distortions arising from QE are not restricted to America but are repeated in the other advanced economies as well. The only offset to the problem is an increase in private sector savings at the expense of immediate consumption and the extent to which they absorb increasing government borrowing. That way, the consequences for price inflation would have been lessened. But in America, much of the EU, and the UK, savings have not increased as a proportion of GDP, so there has been little or no savings offset to soaring budget deficits.

    A funding crisis is in the making

    Returning to the US as our primary example, we can see that national monetary statistics are concealing a slump in economic activity in the “real economy”. This real economy represents the state’s revenue base. On its own, this is going to lead to higher government borrowing than expected by forecasters as tax revenues fall and welfare commitments rise. And interest expense, already estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to cost $442bn in the current fiscal year and $525bn in fiscal 2024, are bound to be significantly higher due to unbudgeted extra borrowing.

    Officialdom still assumes that a recession will be mild and brief. Consequently, the CBO’s calculations are unrealistic in what is clearly an unfolding economic slump given the evidence from bank credit. Even without considering additional negative factors, such as bankruptcies and bank failures which always attend a deep recession, borrowing cost estimates are almost certainly going to be far higher than currently expected.

    In addition to domestic spending, the western alliance appears to be stepping up its war in Ukraine against Russia. US Defence spending is already running at nearly $800bn, and that can be expected to escalate significantly as the conflict in Ukraine worsens. The CBO’s estimate for 2024 is an increase to $814bn; but in the face of a more realistic assessment of an escalation of the Ukraine conflict since the CBO forecast was made last May, the outturn could easily be over $1,000bn. 

    To the volume of debt issuance must also be added variations in interest cost. Bond investors currently tolerate negative yields in the apparent belief that falling consumer demand in a recession will reduce the tendency for consumer prices to rise. This is certainly the official line in all western central banks. But as we have seen, this “transient inflation” argument has had its timescale pushed further into the future as reality intervenes. 

    This line of thinking, which is based on interpretations of supply and demand curves, ignores the plain fact that a general fall in consumption is tied irrevocably to a general fall in production. It also ignores the most important variable, which is the purchasing power of a fiat currency. It is the loss of purchasing power, which is primarily reflected in the consumer price index following the dilution of the currency by its debasement. In the absence of a sheet anchor tying credit values to legal money there is the thorny question of its users’ confidence being maintained in it as the exchange medium. Should that deteriorate, not only have we yet to see the consequences of earlier QE work their way through to undermining the dollar’s purchasing power, but the cost of government borrowing is likely to remain higher and for longer than official forecasts assume. 

    Funding difficulties are ahead

    We can now identify sources of ongoing credit inflation, which at the least will serve to continue to undermine the dollar’s purchasing power and ensure that a rising trend for interest rates will continue. This conclusion is markedly different from expectations that the current catalogue of problems facing the US authorities amounts to a series of one-off factors that will diminish and disappear in time.

    We can see that in common with the Eurozone, Japan, and the UK, the US financial system will be required to come up with rising levels of credit to fund government debt, the consequence of continuing high levels of budget deficits. Furthermore, after a brief respite from the exceptional levels of deficits over covid, there is every likelihood that these deficits will increase again, particularly in the US, UK, and the PIGS grouping in the Eurozone. Not only do these nations have a problem with budget deficits, but they have trade deficits as well. This is bad news particularly for the dollar and sterling, because both currencies are overly dependent on inward capital flows to balance their governments’ books.

    It is becoming apparent that with respect to credit policies, the authorities in America (and the UK) are faced with mounting funding difficulties to resolve. We can briefly summarise them as follows:

    • Though they have yet to admit it, despite all the QE to date the evidence of a gathering recession is mounting. It has only served to conceal a deteriorating economic condition. The Fed is prioritising tackling rising consumer prices for now, claiming that that is the immediate problem.

    • Along with the US Treasury, the Fed still claims that inflation is transient. This claim must continue to have credibility if negative real yields in bond markets are to endure, a situation which cannot last for very long.

    • Monetary stimulus is confined by a lack of commercial banking balance sheet space. Further stimulation through QE will come up against this lack of headroom. 

    • With early evidence of a declining foreign appetite for US Treasuries, it could become increasingly difficult to fund the government’s deficits, as was the case in the UK in the 1970s.

    This author has vivid recollections of a similar situation faced by the UK’s monetary authorities between 1972—1975. In those days, the Bank of England was instructed in its monetary policy by the Treasury, and often its market related advice was overridden by Treasury mandarins lacking knowledge of financial markets. During the Barbour boom of 1971—1972, the Bank suppressed interest rates and encouraged the inflation of credit. Subsequently, price inflation started to rise and interest rates belatedly followed, always reluctantly conceded by the authorities.

    This rapidly became a funding crisis for the government. The Treasury always tried to issue gilt-edged stock at less than the market was prepared to pay. Consequently, sterling’s exchange rate would come under pressure, and with a trend of rising consumer prices continuing, interest rates would have to be raised to get the gilt issue of the day subscribed. Having reflected a deteriorating situation, bond yields then fell when it was momentarily resolved. The crunch came in Autumn 1973, when the Bank of England’s minimum lending rate was increased from 9% on 26 July in steps to 13% on 13 November. A banking crisis suddenly ensued among lenders exposed to commercial property, and a number of banks failed. This episode became known as the secondary banking crisis.

    As bond yields rose, stock markets crashed, with the FT30 Share Index falling from 530 in May 1972, to 140 in January 1975. The listed commercial property sector was virtually wiped out. In an air of crisis, inept Treasury policies continued to contribute to a growing fear of runaway inflation. Long maturity gilt issues bore coupons such as 15 ¼% and 15 ½%. And finally, in November 1976, the IMF bailed Britain out with a $3.9bn loan. 

    Today, these lessons for the Fed and holders of dollar denominated financial assets are instructive. Future increases in interest rates were always underestimated, and as the error became apparent bond yields rose and equities fell. While the Fed is notionally independent from the US Treasury, the Federal Open Market Committee’s approach to markets is one of control, which was not so much shared by the Bank of England in the 1970s but reflected the anti-market Keynesian view of the controlling UK Treasury. 

    In common with all other western central banks today, official policy at the Fed is to deny that price inflation is related to the quantity of credit. It is rare that money or credit in the context of a circulating medium is even mentioned in FOMC policy statements. Instead, interest rate setting is the dominant theme. And there is no acknowledgement that interest rates are primarily compensation to depositors for loss of purchasing power — a dangerous error when national finances are dependent on foreigners buying your treasury bonds. 

    Foreign ownership of dollars and dollar assets

    In the 1970s, sterling’s troubles were compounded by a combination of trade deficits and Britain’s dependence on inward (foreign) investment. In short, the nation was, and still is savings deficient. Consequently, at the first sign of rising interest rates foreign holders recognised that the UK government would drag its heels at accepting reality. They would turn sellers leading to perennial sterling crises.

    Today, the dollar has been protected from this fate because of its status as the world’s reserve currency. Otherwise, it shares the same characteristics as sterling in the 1970s — twin deficits, reliance upon foreign investment, and rising yields on government bonds. 

    According to the US Treasury’s TIC statistics, in the 12 months to September last, foreign holders purchased $846bn long-term securities. Breaking these figures down, private sector foreigners were net buyers, while foreign governments were net sellers. This reflects the difference between the trade deficit and the balance of payments: in other words, importers were retaining and investing most of their dollar payments on a net basis.

    Table 1 shows the most recent position. Over the last year, the total value of foreign long-term and short-term investments in dollars (including bank deposits) fell by $3.531 trillion to $30.270 trillion. $2.532 trillion of this decline was in equity valuations, and with the recent rally in equity and bond markets, there will be some recovery in these numbers. But they are an indication of market and currency risks assumed by foreign holders of these assets if US bond yields start to rise again. And here we must also consider relative currency attractions.

    The decline of the petrodollar and rise of the petroyuan

    It is in this context that we must view Saudi Arabia’s move to replace petrodollars with petroyuan. Through its climate change policies, the western alliance against the Asian hegemons has effectively told its oil and natural gas supliers in the Gulf Cooperation Council that their carbon fuel products will no longer be welcome in a decade’s time. It is therefore hardly surprising that the Middle East sees its future trade being with China, along with her associates in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Eurasian economic Union, and the BRICS. Saudi Arabia has indicated her desire to join BRICS. Along with Egypt, Qatar, Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain, Saudi Arabia are also on the list to become dialog partners of the SCO.

     Binding the membership of the SCO together is China’s plans to accelerate a communications and industrial revolution throughout Asia, and with a savings rate of 45% she has the capital available to invest in the necessary projects without undermining her currency. While America stagnates, China’s economy will be powering ahead.

    There are further advantages to China’s plans with respect to the security and availability of cheap energy. While the Asians pay lip service to the western alliance’s insistence that fossil fuels must be reduced and then eliminated, in practice SCO members are still building coal-fired power stations and increasing their demand for all forms of fossil fuel. Members, associates, and dialog partners of the SCO, representing over 40% of the world’s population now include all the major oil and gas exporters in Asia.

    The economic consequences are certain to impart significant advantages to China and her industrialisation plans, compared with the western alliance’s determination to starve itself of energy. While it will take some time for the Saudis to fully declare the petrodollar dead, the signal that she is prepared to accept petroyuan is an important one with more immediate consequences. We can be sure that besides geopolitical imperatives, the Saudis will have analysed the relative prospects between the two petro-currencies. They appear to have concluded that the risk of loss of the yuan’s purchasing power is at least no greater than that of the dollar. And if the Saudis are arriving at this conclusion, we can assume that other Asian governments holding dollars in their reserves will as well.

    Russia is likely to stir the currency pot

    With the western alliance increasing its support and involvement in the Ukraine proxy war, the military pressure on Russia is mounting. If President Putin has learned anything, it should be that military attempts to secure Eastern Ukraine carry a high risk of failure. Furthermore, with the alliance bringing more lethal weaponry to bear on his army, his prospects of military success are declining.

    Compounding his military problems is the recent decline in oil and gas prices, particularly of the latter which has taken the energy squeeze off the EU. There can be little doubt that the greater these negative factors become, the greater the pressure on Putin to resort to a financial solution.

    Putin’s strategy is likely to be simple and has already been telegraphed in his speech to the delegates at the St Petersburg Economic Forum last June. In short, he understands the weakness for the dollar’s position and by extension those of the other alliance currencies. Ideally, a cold snap in Middle and Eastern Europe will help lift oil and gas prices, increasing the prospects for price inflation, thereby bringing renewed pressure for interest rates in the alliance currencies to rise. This will lead to renewed losses on US and EU bonds, further falls in equities, and therefore dollar liquidation by foreigners. The eventual outcome of Triffin’s dilemma, a final crisis for the reserve currency, is certainly in the wings.

    With the situation in Ukraine likely to escalate, Putin can ill afford to delay. On another front, he has authorised Russia’s National Wealth Fund to invest up to 60% in Chinese yuan and 40% in physical gold. This is probably a move to protect the fund from Putin’s view of future currency trends and from their declining value in gold. It is consistent with what the Saudis are doing with respect to getting out of dollars into yuan, and probably some gold bullion through the Shanghai International Gold Exchange. If this demand for gold extends beyond both Russia and Saudi Arabia, then the mechanism for dollar destruction could be accelerating demand for gold from multiple governments and entities in the Russian Chinese axis.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 17:30

  • Watch: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Set To Launch US Military Payloads
    Watch: SpaceX Falcon Heavy Set To Launch US Military Payloads

    SpaceX’s powerful Falcon Heavy rocket will attempt to put two US military satellites into geosynchronous orbit on Saturday evening. 

    Weather for NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida is predicted to be favorable for this evening. Launch time is expected at 5:55 pm EST.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The partially classified mission for the Space Force is called USSF-67. The rocket’s payload is two military satellites that support communications and technology demonstration experiments. 

    The most recent Heavy launch was in early November. Its classified payload was for the Space Force. Today’s launch will be the fifth Heavy launch, and three more are planned for the first half of 2023. 

    In addition to the Heavy launches, SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket launched 60 times in 2022. A lot of attention has turned to SpaceX to help propel the American space race. 

    Weeks ago, CNBC reported SpaceX raised $750 million in a new round of funding that values the company at $137 billion. 

    SpaceX was just considered a possible option for astronauts leaving the International Space Station as their return to Earth could be jeopardized by the Russian Soyuz spacecraft that sprang a coolant leak. 

    *  *  *

    Watch the launch live here:

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 17:00

  • Heavy Storms Help California To Almost Eliminate Extreme Drought From State
    Heavy Storms Help California To Almost Eliminate Extreme Drought From State

    Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,

    California, which has been reeling under the grip of drought, has received respite due to the multiple storms that hit the state and elsewhere in the past weeks, helping it deal with drought conditions in several regions and filling up many of the smaller reservoirs.

    “A long-term drought, dating back to the 2019–2020 winter, continues across California, the Great Basin, and parts of the Pacific Northwest,” according to the National Drought Summary on Jan. 10.

    “However, the intense precipitation in California the past few weeks—particularly late December and early January—has significantly reduced drought intensity in California. Most of the state saw a 1-category improvement this week.”

    According to the Jan. 12th drought map for California, regions classified as facing extreme drought conditions, dubbed “D3,” have almost disappeared from the interior areas of the state.

    In just a single week, the portion of the state facing D3 conditions declined from 27.1 percent to 0.32 percent. Regions classified as facing severe drought, D2, fell from 71.14 percent to 46 percent during this period.

    During the past couple of weeks, 24.5 trillion gallons of water fell in California owing to a series of atmospheric river storms. Since Dec. 26, 2022, seven atmospheric rivers have dumped up to 30 inches of rain in some regions of the state.

    Filling Up Reservoirs

    The heavy rains have resulted in small reservoirs getting filled in several communities across California. In, for example, the Marin Municipal Water District, in the north of the state, all seven reservoirs recently hit 100 percent capacity.

    Four of the 10 reservoirs owned by the Santa Clara Valley Water District are also full. Seven reservoirs run by the East Bay Municipal Utility District are 84 percent full. However, the largest reservoirs are not yet full, officials warn, because drought conditions in the state are not yet over.

    The Oroville reservoir up north in Butte County, the second-largest reservoir in California, is only 49 percent full, which is 90 percent of its historical average. Shasta Lake is only 44 percent full, which is 77 percent of its historical average.

    “The sum of the state’s six largest reservoir stores increased from 5 million as of Nov. 30, 2022, to 7.3 million as of Jan. 10, 2023 (from 54 percent of long-term average to 74 percent of long-term average),” the National Drought Summary said.

    “Only one of the six largest reservoirs is near its long-term average, and three of them hold only 43–61 percent of their long-term averages as of Jan. 10.”

    Drought Conditions Elsewhere

    A study published in the journal Nature last year found that the past 22 years have been the driest period in the American Southwest’s last 1,200 years. To completely get rid of drought conditions in the region, multiple seasons of precipitation at 120–200 percent of the normal levels are estimated to be needed.

    The current storm conditions are not, however, a guarantee that California’s drought conditions would end soon. In December 2021, the conditions were very wet, which raised hopes that the drought was ending. However, the months of January, February, and March ended up being the driest in California’s recorded history.

    The same happened in 2013, when a wet December was followed by a very dry January and February. Though big snow totals are welcome, there is still a “long way to go before the critical April 1 total,” said Sean de Guzman, manager of the snow surveys and water supply forecasting unit at the California Department of Water Resources, according to a news release on Jan. 31.

    “It’s always great to be above average this early in the season, but we must be resilient and remember what happened last year. If January through March of 2023 turns out to be similar to last year, we would still end the water year in severe drought with only half of an average year’s snowpack,” he said.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 16:30

  • We Must Have The Truth
    We Must Have The Truth

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    I have been trying to tackle the “fringe” issues (read: the issues the mainstream won’t give way on) regarding Covid since the pandemic first began in 2020. So far, I think I’ve done a decent job in helping flesh out many “conspiracy theories” about Covid that instead, have turned out to be “conspiracy facts”.

    Among them, I’ve written about managing our Orwellian response to Covid, the notoriously sensitive nature of PCR testing, the CDC moving its data goalposts, the likely nature of Covid coming from a lab leak (here and here and here) and the U.S.’s role in said leak and the media’s hysterical coverage of ivermectin.

    Additionally, for those that haven’t heard it yet, in an attempt to continue the “other side” of Covid discourse, I published a new podcast with Dr. Peter A. McCullough, who has dozens of peer-reviewed publications on Covid-19 and has commented extensively on the medical response to the COVID-19 crisis in The Hill, America Out Loud, and cable networks like ABC and Fox News. 

    I am always happy to welcome new content from The Brownstone Institute, one of the last few beacons of common sense left in the world of actual journalism.

    This week they published a new piece on Covid and our response to it, called We Must Have The Truth. I reached out to the publication last year and requested permission to share their content when I enjoy it, in full, with my readers, which they kindly granted. If you’re interested in the topic – or simply just having a grasp on the objective truth – I believe it is a “must read”.

    The article is written by Pat Fidopiastis, who is a Professor of Microbiology at California Polytechnic State University.

    On April 2, 2020, a paddle boarder was chased by authorities and taken into custody. This event should have caused unanimous outrage over the absurdity of what happened – law enforcement arrested a lone paddle boarder on Santa Monica Bay for the crime of “flouting coronavirus closures.” 

    Traditional voices that could have questioned unscientific authoritarian policy instead provided cover. The Los Angeles Times justified law enforcement’s ridiculous response by quoting a scientist who made the claim (presumably with a straight face): “..[SARS-CoV-2] could enter coastal waters and transfer back into the air.” Setting aside the absurdity of this and every other justification for closing beaches, hiking trails, and parks, think of the narrative it perpetuated — the virus is so insidious that even those who dared to paddle board alone on the ocean might somehow spread it to the rest of us. 

    The paddler’s arrest was an early indication that something had changed in our country. A “new normal” was spawning from the chaotic, unscientific, politicized pandemic messaging mainly coming from biased news media and the once venerable Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Dr. Anthony Fauci. The result was bitter contempt between two sides of the COVID-19 debate that metastasized into a deep distrust for science. 

    In an understatement of the century, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky recently summed up her agency’s role in promoting distrust in science by stating that they did not “reliably meet expectations.” Thus, it’s pretty clear that for their part, nothing much will change. Dr. Fauci proclaimed that because he “represents science” any criticism of him is a direct attack on science. Translation, we shouldn’t expect any productive capitulation from him either. 

    Although the CDC acknowledged playing a role in the growing distrust in science, none of their professed forms of atonement, such as promising to share data faster and doing a better job of translating science into policy will restore trust without a process that includes honest debate. 

    Over the past two years, the CDC cherry-picked data from articles rushed to print in their own journal (Morbidity Mortality Weekly Report) to justify a lot of bad policy, including masking schoolchildren, which is still happening today, or pushed the completely unscientific assertion that vaccine immunity is superior to natural immunity. 

    On the other hand, they buried data showing that upon reinfection, vaccinated people without prior COVID-19 diagnosis were at greater risk of hospitalization than the unvaccinated with prior COVID-19. 

    Dr. Walensky also boldly stated that, “Our data from the CDC today suggests that vaccinated people do not carry the virus, don’t get sick.” The untruthful messaging that vaccination stopped infection and transmission was justification for an appalling trend of people mocking the COVID-19-related deaths of the unvaccinated. 

    It’s unlikely the families targeted by such attacks will hear any apologies, even though Dr. Fauci’s four shots did not protect him from reoccurring COVID-19, or that Dr. Birx admitted that inflated vaccine efficacy claims were based on hope, not science. 

    Get 60% Off: If you enjoy pieces like this and you are still not a subscriber of QTR’s Fringe Finance, here’s 60% off: Get 60% off forever

    At the start of the pandemic, Dr. Fauci told us not to buy masks because they do not work. When the politics changed, Fauci reversed himself and became the proponent of wearing not just one mask – but several. Dr. Fauci’s excuse for the flip-flop was his only truth on the matter – he admitted that he lied, albeit “nobly.”

    For his encore, Dr. Fauci confidently opined on the level of vaccine uptake required for herd immunity. Eventually he admitted to guessing at numbers to frighten people into compliance. To be clear, Dr. Fauci used deception, not science, to support his version of public health policy. 

    Anybody who was “on the fence” about trusting Fauci, the self-proclaimed embodiment of “the science,” should have been forcefully pushed off after his attempts to obfuscate when testifying to Congress on whether the US government funded “gain of function” research that very likely created SARS-CoV-2. 

    The loss of trust was greatly amplified by activist scientists and most of the news media. Dr. Fauci refused to say anything critical of the nationwide social justice protests that might have discouraged people from participating in behaviors known to spread respiratory viruses. 

    However, scientists and news sources eagerly reported alleged death tolls purportedly caused by Trump rallies, while claiming “no evidence of protest spread.” 

    How could scientists determine whether the protests caused any disease transmission or death if contact tracers were not allowed to ask if someone attended a protest?

    The weaponization of science to censor, persecute, delegitimize, and threaten those who had differing opinions has never happened on this scale in this country. 

    Fig. 1. Comparison of daily per capita cases between Texas (orange), which lifted its mask mandate in March 2021, California (red), and New York (Green), which continued their masking policies. 

    Even President Biden capitalized on the politicization of mask-wearing by accusing the elected leader (and by extension the citizens) of Texas of “Neanderthal thinking” for removing the mask mandate in 2021. Meanwhile, states such as California and New York were praised for “following the science.” 

    A simple comparison of the epidemic curves between these states did not justify the divisive rhetoric (Fig. 1). But rather than have these conversations, it was easier to just slander dissenters and censor intelligent discussion. 

    As the old saying goes, “a lie is halfway around the world before the truth gets its boots on.” Thankfully, the truth finally has its boots on and is catching up on many fronts, such as the questionable effectiveness of mask mandates. 

    The “Neanderthal thinking” jab was uttered around the time the news media, outraged by Governor Ron DeSantis’ steady leadership in Florida, hoped to get “Ron DeathSantis” trending on social media. 

    Not surprisingly, the data told a different story about Florida (Fig. 2). It’s clear that “follow the science” was just a slogan. Politics, lies, and vindictive moral superiority are baked into our nation’s COVID-19 policy.

    Fig. 2. Age-adjusted COVID-19 deaths in Florida and California. The circles are proportional to state population. Although these states adopted dramatically different policies, they had comparable outcomes.

    Trust in science might never be restored in people who lost their livelihood to unscientific lockdowns or vaccine mandates. But, here’s some advice for people like Dr. Walensky and Dr. Fauci to get back some of the trust.

    1) Go back to the basics of Public Health: “Voluntary measures are more likely to induce cooperation and protect public trust than coercive measures, and are more likely to prevent attempts to avoid contact with the healthcare system.” 

    2) Invite dissenting experts to the table for open policy debate. Excess malaria and opioid deaths in young people, while millions of children were thrusted into acute starvation, are examples of significant COVID-19 policy failures. Great Barrington Declaration scientists warned about such collateral damage, but were maligned and censored. At the very least, the public would have benefitted from a different perspective on the risk of catching COVID-19 from ocean spray. 

    3) Vindictive moral superiority is terrible public health messaging. Heed the advice from an article in The Atlantic: “Viruses are not moral agents, and infection is not a personal failure.”  

    4) Sincerely apologize to people who were fired, maligned, censored, or physically harmed, then tell us your justification for ignoring counter data and continuing policy that encouraged these unnecessary outcomes.

    5) none of the above will matter if public health officials do not tell the truth, including the nuance, and trust that the American people can handle it. George Santayana famously said, “Those that cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Let’s hope we’ve learned from our mistakes, because given the state of the world right now, we cannot afford to repeat them. 

    About The Brownstone Institute

    The Brownstone Institute is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization founded May 2021. Its vision is of a society that places the highest value on the voluntary interaction of individuals and groups while minimizing the use of violence and force including that which is exercised by public or private authorities. This vision is that of the Enlightenment which elevated learning, science, progress, and universal rights to the forefront of public life. It is constantly threatened by ideologies and systems that would take the world back to before the triumph of the ideal of freedom.

    The motive force of Brownstone Institute was the global crisis created by policy responses to the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020. That trauma revealed a fundamental misunderstanding alive in all countries around the world today, a willingness on the part of the public and officials to relinquish freedom and fundamental human rights in the name of managing a public health crisis, which was not managed well in most countries. The consequences were devastating and will live in infamy.

    About the Author

    Pat Fidopiastis is a Professor of Microbiology at California Polytechnic State University.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 15:30

  • Wind Farms Eyed In Surge Of Dead Whales On NJ, NY Beaches
    Wind Farms Eyed In Surge Of Dead Whales On NJ, NY Beaches

    In a case of odd bedfellows, environmental groups and Republican politicians are calling for a pause in offshore wind farm development following a string of whales washing up dead on New Jersey and New York beaches.  

    Seven whales have turned up dead in little over a month. The latest victim, a 20- to 25-foot juvenile Humpback whale, turned up in Brigantine, New Jersey on Thursday afternoon, close to a Coast Guard station. 

    “The wave of dead whales is the ocean sounding the alarm, and we must heed the warning,” said Cindy Zipf, executive director of Jersey-based Clean Ocean Action, after the sixth whale washed up in Atlantic City on Jan. 7 with signs of head trauma. “[The wind farm development] is too much, too fast. It’s outrageous and our ocean deserves better.” 

    A dead humpback whale washed up at Atlantic City on Jan 7, and was observed to have head trauma (via @AtlanticCity911 on Twitter) 

    On Friday, Congressman Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ) announced he would seek a federal investigation. “Ocean life is being put at risk as our governor and president force through their Green New Deal policies, without giving full consideration to their real-world impacts.

    Drew sits on the House Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee. New Jersey Republican state Senator Vince Polistina called for a pause in the offshore construction:

    “The work related to offshore wind projects is the primary difference in our waters, and it’s hard to believe that the death of (seven) whales on our beaches is just a coincidence.”

    For others officials, though, it’s damn the whales, full speed ahead. Democratic New Jersey governor Phil Murphy, on Friday said that, while “this is tragic, obviously,” suspicions that tie the dead whales to the wind farm development were “unfounded and premature.” 

    New Jersey has been on a quest to distinguish itself as the top offshore-wind state on the east coast. The Garden State has already approved three offshore wind farms and is soliciting more requests. 

    Clean Ocean Action says the installation of offshore windmills usually involves exploration of the sea floor using low-frequency sounds in the same frequency that whales use, with the risk that they could become disoriented or otherwise harmed.  

    Earlier this week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said it was unaware of any humpback whale having previously been confirmed as a victim of offshore wind projects. Among other human perils, whales can fall victim to ship strikes…but could sonar disorientation increase that risk? 

    The Marine Mammal Stranding Center said it can take months to figure out a beached whale’s cause of death. In the meantime, expect Governor Murphy to continue racing to bolster New Jersey’s green energy credentials.  

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 15:00

  • FDA Adviser Says Young And Healthy People Shouldn’t Get Latest COVID Boosters
    FDA Adviser Says Young And Healthy People Shouldn’t Get Latest COVID Boosters

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A vaccine adviser to the Food and Drug Administration is questioning whether young, healthy people should get new COVID-19 boosters, arguing those shots should be used for older individuals.

    “I believe we should stop trying to prevent all symptomatic infections in healthy, young people by boosting them with vaccines containing mRNA from strains that might disappear a few months later,” wrote Dr. Paul A. Offit, an FDA vaccine panel adviser and professor of pediatrics at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, in New England Journal of Medicine on Jan. 11.

    A young woman receives a COVID-19 vaccine at the Bahrain International Exhibition and Convention Center in Manama, Bahrain on Dec. 24, 2020. (Mazen Mahdi/AFP via Getty Images)

    In his article, Offit cited two studies suggesting that bivalent boosters, which target the original COVID-19 strain and two Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA. 5, do not “elicit superior immune responses.”

    “Why did the strategy for significantly increasing BA.4 and BA.5 neutralizing antibodies using a bivalent vaccine fail?” he asked. “The most likely explanation is imprinting. The immune systems of people immunized with the bivalent vaccine, all of whom had previously been vaccinated, were primed to respond to the ancestral strain of SARS-CoV-2. They therefore probably responded to epitopes shared by BA.4 and BA.5 and the ancestral strain, rather than to new epitopes on BA.4 and BA.5.”

    Offit noted that based on those studies, “boosting with a bivalent vaccine is likely to have a similar effect as boosting with a monovalent vaccine” but stressed that “booster dosing is probably best reserved for the people most likely to need protection against severe disease.”

    Another doctor appeared to agree with Offit’s conclusions regarding “imprinting.” Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told U.S. News that “it may be that people’s immune systems are so primed to respond to the ancestral strain spike protein that a reformulated booster is unable to fully stimulate the immune system because it has been ‘imprinted’ by the original version of the virus.”

    More Details

    Data and studies have shown that older adults and people who have compromised immune systems are most at risk of developing severe COVID-19 symptoms, hospitalization, and death. Children, meanwhile, have long been shown to have the lowest chance of death, hospitalization, or developing severe symptoms since the pandemic started.

    Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and FDA said that everyone over the age of 6 months get updated boosters at least two months after their last doses of the vaccine. The bivalent boosters were authorized under emergency use for children aged 6 months to 4 years on Dec. 9.

    Meanwhile, a small number of Americans have received the updated boosters, according to the CDC. As of Jan. 4, some 15 percent of individuals aged 5 and older received the bivalent shots, while about 38 percent of adults aged 65 and older have gotten them.

    That same CDC data also shows that about 80.9 percent of all Americans received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine since they were rolled out two years ago, while 69 percent have completed their initial, “primary series.”

    An FDA spokesperson Abigail Capobianco responded to Offit’s article this week, telling NBC News that Offit allegedly used “selective” data to reach his conclusions and that “we strongly believe that the totality of the available evidence continues to support the use of these vaccines in all age groups.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 14:30

  • Roomba Robot Vacuum Testers Find "Intimate" Photos Of Themselves On The Web
    Roomba Robot Vacuum Testers Find “Intimate” Photos Of Themselves On The Web

    Well, it looks like you can score one for all of the “conspiracy theorists” who have said they don’t like “smart” appliances in their home because they feel like they were being spied on.

    And you can tell those writing off these concerns that intimate photos of some Roomba tester vacuums have magically turned up on Facebook after being ascertained by Venezuelan gig workers.

    One woman even found photographs of herself on the toilet, taken by her robot vacuum. What a time to be alive!

    Breitbart reported last week that gig workers had posted pictures online where they were discussing “work-related matters”. One photo was a woman sitting on a toilet seat with her shorts pulled down to her mid thighs – it was taken by her Roomba J7 series robot vacuum, the report says.

    The photos were sent to iRobot by Scale AI, a startup that contracts workers to label AI data used to train artificial intelligence, the report says. Users had agreed to “participate in the data collection” as part of a testing. They signed consent forms but now say they feel “misled” about the true nature of the consent. 

    Albert Fox Cahn, executive director of the Surveillance Technology Oversight Project, told Brietbart: “There is a real concern about whether the company is being deceptive if people are signing up for this sort of highly invasive type of surveillance and never fully understand… what they’re agreeing to.”

    The MIT Technology Review conducted an investigation and determined it to be gig workers in Venezuela. There were also photos of a child and a woman using the restroom, the report says. iRobot has terminated its agreement with ScaleAI in response to the investigation.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 01/14/2023 – 14:05

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