• In The Matrix? Cosmologist Explains How Humans Could Be Living In A Simulated Universe Beyond Perception
  In The Matrix? Cosmologist Explains How Humans Could Be Living In A Simulated Universe Beyond Perception

  Authored by Geraint Lewis via The Conversation,

  As a cosmologist, I often carry around a universe or two in my pocket. Not entire, infinitely large universes, but maybe a few billion light years or so across. Enough to be interesting.

  Of course, these are not “real” universes; rather they are universes I have simulated on a computer.

  The basic idea of simulating a universe is quite simple.

  You need “initial conditions” which, for me, is the state of the universe just after the Big Bang.

  To this, you add the laws of physics, such as: how gravity pulls on mass, how gas flows into galaxies, and how stars are born, live, and die.

  You press “go,” and then sit back as the computer calculates all of the complex interactions, and evolves the universe over cosmic time.

  A wonderful description by Andrew Pontzen on how astronomers synthesize and study their very own galaxies and universes.

  What’s more fun is playing “Master of the Universe,” and messing about with the laws of physics, such as changing the properties of gravity, or how black holes swallow matter. Waiting to see the outcome of these mutated universes is always interesting.

  I know in my heart that these universes are nothing more than ones and zeros buried within my computer, but in the movies I make of my evolving galaxies and clusters, and the one embedded further down in this article, I can see the mass moving around. It looks real!

  Computer simulations of complex phenomena are everywhere in science, and cosmologists aren’t the only ones that marvel at synthetic chunks of the real universe.

  It is equally inspiring to watch the flow of air around a newly-designed wing, or how individual molecules make their way through a biological membrane, and such simulations have revolutionized science.

  Of course, these advances have only occurred with the growth of computer power over the last few decades, and the push is always towards the inclusion of more complex physics over an immense range of scales, from the cosmological to the quantum.

  We are always limited by the power of computing, but as computers get bigger and faster, so does the detail within our synthetic universes.

  Cosmologists aren’t the only ones that marvel at synthetic chunks of the real universe.

  But let’s imagine a time in the future, a time when computers are powerful enough to fully simulate a human brain, with its vast array of interconnected neurons.

  These neurons obey the laws of physics, and fire as their chemical balances change. Thoughts would echo around this synthetic brain, with electrical signals coursing backwards and forwards.

  Not being a philosopher, I will ignore the (seemingly endless) debates about free will and consciousness, but if you take a purely mechanical view of the human brain, the synthetic brain will be as “alive” as the organic brain that made it.

  Fed with the stimulus from a synthetic body interacting with a synthetic universe, it will experience pain and fear, happiness and love, even boredom and drowsiness.

  There are, in fact, some who believe we will all be reborn in a glorious future, where computers are powerful enough to recreate everyone who has ever lived, and then sustain them for eternity.

  While this vision of heaven is touted as the Final Anthropic Principle, some have more bluntly labelled it the “Completely Ridiculous Anthropic Principle,” or C.R.A.P.

  But we may not have to wait until the distant future!

  In simulations, I can see the mass moving around. It looks real!

  To quote the late, great Douglas Adams, “There is another theory which states that this has already happened.”

  Not that someone on Earth, or even within our universe, has created a truly synthetic universe, complete with beings that are clueless to the fact they are nothing but part of a computer experiment.

  No, the startling realization is that we—our very existence, every thing we have seen, have experienced, or will ever experience—might be nothing but the chugging of bits in an unimaginable supercomputer.

  As I type this on a laptop, and stare out the train window at the station rolling past, at the people, the trees, the dirt on the ground, surely I would know if I was part of a computer program?

  But then again, my brain is simply processing inputs, and if the simulated inputs fed into my simulated brain are good enough, how would I know?

  It is important to remember that this picture is different to the “Brain-in-a-vat” presented in the Matrix movies. There, an organic brain is fed information, recreating the synthetic world in which the characters find themselves.

  Instead, our picture is that there is no organic brain. We are part of the matrix itself.

  So, how can we know if we are part of a computer simulation?

  It is important to remember our earthly computers are limited in the way they can represent real numbers, holding only a finite number of digits for typical calculations.

  What this means is that my simulated universes are quantized, in some sense, with the limited resolution imprinted in the details of the structure that is produced.

  If we are living in a computer simulation, then maybe such resolution effects are apparent to us. Our world doesn’t look like the Minecraft universe, and so we expect the resolution scale to be smaller than the scale of individual atoms, rather than large, cubed blocks the size of footballs.

  Just last month, researchers from the University of Bonn, Germany, suggested we can detect such “chunkiness” of the small scale by looking how high-energy particles, known as cosmic rays, traverse huge distances in the universe. As these rays bounce through this space, their energy properties get modified, and by looking at what arrives on Earth, we can work out the size of the chunks.

  But there are problems with this idea.

  Firstly, we are working under the assumption that the computer we live in operates like an everyday computer. But these everyday computers are governed by the laws of physics of the synthetic universe in which we reside.

  The unimaginably powerful computer that hosts our universe may operate in ways we cannot even think about.

  The resolution scale of our universe is considerably smaller than in the “chunky” Minecraft universe.

  Another problem is that those trying to understand the nature of the very small have already proposed a quantized backdrop of space and time in which we live.

  Is the existence of such a space-time simply a property of a real universe, or the tell-tale sign of a synthetic one? How can we ever tell them apart? Do we even want to?

  One way of potentially detecting the real nature of the universe is to search for the extraordinary—or, in the words of my children, who play video games, “glitches”—where the program doesn’t do as expected.

  Perhaps some of the unexplained things we cannot yet explain are simply glitches in the program (although I am a fan of illusionist Derren Brown and think the human mind can be easily tricked).

  

  The other alternative is more drastic.

  When my synthetic universes are running, they can abruptly come to a halt for a variety of reasons, such as disk-space filling up, errors in the memory, or something as simple as the cleaner unplugging the computer to vacuum the floor.

  If my synthetic universe is running when the power goes out, it simply ceases to exist.

  I do hope the cleaners of our potential-hyperdimensional-universe-simulating overlords are more careful.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 23:45

• Where To Find Water On Mars
  Where To Find Water On Mars

  The hunt for water on Mars has always been a point of interest for researchers.

  Earth has life almost everywhere water exists. Water is an ideal target for finding lifeforms, like microbes, that may exist on other planets.

  And if Mars is to become a future home, knowing where water exists will be necessary for our survival.

  Both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have special instruments searching for water on the red planet. After 10 years of in-depth investigation, their latest findings suggest a new “water map” for Mars.

  Where Did the Water Go?

  Many people know Mars as a dry and dusty planet, but it hasn’t always been that way.

  Approximately 4.1 to 3.8 billion years ago, Mars had a massive ocean called Oceanus Borealis. It dominated the northern hemisphere of the planet. Specific planetary conditions at that time let water exist on its surface. Changes in temperature, climate, and geology over the years gradually pushed water out to the atmosphere or into the ground.

  Up to 99% of this ocean water is trapped within the planet’s crust, locked within special rocks called hydrous minerals.

  Hydrous Minerals

  Hydrous minerals are essentially rocks that have water (or its two main elements, hydrogen and oxygen), incorporated into their chemical structure.

  There are four main classes of hydrous minerals: silicates, sulfates, silicas, and carbonates. While these minerals look pretty similar to the naked eye, their chemical compositions and structural arrangements vary. They are detectable by sophisticated equipment and can tell scientists how water geologically changes over time.

  The new water map of Mars actually highlights the location of these hydrous minerals. It is a geological map of the rocks that are holding what remains of Mars’s ancient ocean.

  Other Sources of Water on Mars

  Despite being a “graveyard” for the bulk of the planet’s ocean, hydrous minerals are not the only source of water on Mars.

  Water ice is present at both of Mars’s poles. The northern polar ice cap contains the only visible water on the planet, while the southern pole covers its water with a frozen carbon-dioxide cap.

  In 2020, radar analyses suggested the presence of liquid water, potentially part of a network of underground saltwater lakes, close to the southern pole. In 2022, new evidence for this liquid water suggested that the planet may still be geothermally active.

  More frozen water may be locked away in the deep subsurface, far below what current surveying equipment is able to inspect.

  Mapping Out the Next Missions

  The new water map is highlighting areas of interest for future exploration on Mars.

  There is a small chance that hydrous minerals may be actively forming near water sources. Finding where they co-exist with known areas of buried frozen water provides possible opportunities for extracting water.

  ESA’s Rosalind Franklin Rover will land in Oxia Planum, a region rich in hydrous clays, to investigate how water shaped the region and whether life once began on Mars.

  Many more investigations and studies are developing, but for now, scientists are just getting their toes wet as they explore what hydrous minerals can tell us of Mars’s watery past.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 23:10

• Growing Number Of Americans Want Diplomacy With Adversaries; New Poll Finds
  Growing Number Of Americans Want Diplomacy With Adversaries; New Poll Finds

  Authored by Kyle Anzalone & Connor Freeman via The Libertarian Institute, 

  According to a new survey of Americans, a growing majority desire negotiations with Washington’s enemies. For example, nearly 80% of people polled said they want the White House to continue nuclear talks with Iran. 

  The Eurasia Group Foundation released a new survey asking Americans if our government should negotiate with adversaries. Nearly twice as many Americans said they want more talks compared to those calling for less diplomacy. 

  

  Since Joe Biden became president, Washington’s relationship with Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran has become more contentious. However, the increasingly hostile White House is not reflective of the American public. Year-over-year the poll shows an increase in Americans favoring diplomacy over isolation. 

  The pollsters also found overwhelming support for negotiations with Iran. When asked, “Do you think the US should continue to pursue negotiations to prevent Iran from obtaining or developing a nuclear weapon in the near future?” 78.8 of Americans said yes, including over 70% of Republicans. 

  Biden campaigned on engaging Tehran and returning to the nuclear agreement that President Barack Obama helped create. President Donald Trump illegally exited in 2018.

  The Biden White House has largely adopted the hardline position of the Trump administration, expanding the “maximum pressure” campaign, piling on additional sanctions, and preventing the US from reentering the nuclear deal. 

  On Russia-Ukraine, the poll found that “Avoiding a direct war between the US and Russia was the highest ranked goal across all party affiliations. This was followed by preventing the suffering of the Ukrainian people.”

  

  While Americans prefer engagement with adversaries, politicians in Washington largely advocate for an isolationist path Republican Senator from North Carolina Thom Tillis recently said talking with Iran was ill-advised. Democratic Senator Bob Menendez is a well-known Iran hawk and has repeatedly expressed his opposition to a diplomatic agreement with Tehran.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 22:35

• A Quarter Of San Francisco's Office Space Is Empty
  A Quarter Of San Francisco’s Office Space Is Empty

  San Francisco’s office vacancy rate has risen to a record 25.5% at the end of Sept., up from 20% a year earlier, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from real estate brokerage CBRE Group Inc. The amount of vacant office space surpassed levels after both the 2008 Great Recession and the dot-com bust. 

  CBRE said that the city’s office vacancy rate was about 4% at the virus pandemic’s start. By September 2021, the rate was 20% and has since increased to 25.5%. 

  Workers have been slow to return to the city’s downtown, with weekly office utilization less than 40% of the pre-pandemic average, according to security company Kastle Systems. Office values in the San Francisco area have tumbled almost 40% on a price-per-square-foot basis from a high in December 2020, according to MSCI Real Assets. — Bloomberg 

  

  The data suggests several forces driving this phenomenon, including remote work and the growing appeal of tech companies moving operations beyond San Francisco, even out of state. 

  Cities like Austin, Texas, and Miami, Florida, have been luring tech companies from the Bay Area with lower taxes, affordable housing, higher-quality public schools, and, of course, less crime. 

  But we wonder if the so-called ‘Great Tech Exodus’ from the Bay Area will be a temporary blip or a much long-term… 

  Perhaps the Bay Area’s social-economic implosion is enough evidence that the trend to exit the area for safer areas is long-term, well, at least as long as progressives continue ruining the city through social justice reforms that have backfired. 

  Some Bay Area neighborhoods and street corners are overrun with homeless people and Fentanyl addicts, it’s tough for a tech company to attract new talent to an area where living costs are astronomically higher than the rest of the US, and parts of town resemble a third-world country.

  Then there’s the Federal Reserve-induced market turmoil, leading large and small tech companies to quickly reduce costs by downsizing their workforce and slashing office space. 

  Facebook parent Meta, Google, and Amazon are some tech giants that have instituted hiring freezes. Salesforce, Airbnb, and Twilio had office space for lease in the Bay Area. 

  A corporate exodus, faltering commercial real estate market, turmoil in financial markets, and social economic implosion will derail the Bay Area’s economic recovery. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 22:00

• Markets Are Expecting The Fed To Save Them – It's Not Going To Happen
  Markets Are Expecting The Fed To Save Them – It’s Not Going To Happen

  Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

  I have said it many times in the past but I’ll say it here again: Stock markets are a trailing indicator of economic health, not a leading indicator. Rising stock prices are not a signal of future economic stability and when stocks fall it’s usually after years of declines in other sectors of the financial system. Collapsing stocks are not the “cause” of an economic crisis, they are just a delayed symptom of a crisis that was always there.

  

  Anyone who started investing after the crash of 2008 probably has zero concept of how markets are supposed to behave and what they represent to the rest of the economy. They have never seen stocks move freely without central bank interference and they have only witnessed brief glimpses of true price discovery.

  With each new leg down in markets one can now predict every couple of months or so with relative certainty that investor sentiment will turn to assumptions that the Federal Reserve is going to leap in with new stimulus measures. This is not supposed to be normal, but they can’t really help it, they were trained over the past 14 years to expect QE like clockwork whenever markets took a dip of 10% or more. The problem is that conditions have changed dramatically in terms of credit conditions and price environment and it was all those trillions of QE dollars that ultimately created this mess.

  Many alternative economists, myself included, saw this threat coming miles away and years ahead of time. In my article ‘The Economic End Game Continues’, published in 2017, I outlined the inevitable outcome of the global QE bonanza:

  “The changing of the Fed chair is absolutely meaningless as far as policy is concerned. Jerome Powell will continue the same exact initiatives as Yellen; stimulus will be removed, rates will be hiked and the balance sheet will be reduced, leaving the massive market bubble the Fed originally created vulnerable to implosion.

  An observant person…might have noticed that central banks around the world seem to be acting in a coordinated fashion to remove stimulus support from markets and raise interest rates, cutting off supply lines of easy money that have long been a crutch for our crippled economy.”

  The Fed supports markets through easy money that feeds stock buybacks, and it’s primarily buybacks that kept stocks alive for all these years. It should be noted that as indexes like the S&P 500 plunged 20% or more in in the first six months of 2022, buybacks also decreased by 21.8% in the same time period. That is to say, there seems to be a direct relationship between the level of stock buybacks and the number of companies participating vs the decline of stocks overall.

  And why did buybacks decline? Because the Fed is raising interest rates and the easy money is disappearing.

  If buybacks are the primary determinant of stock market prices, then the participation of individual investors is mostly meaningless. Stocks cannot sustain on the backs of regular investors because regular investors don’t have enough capital to keep markets afloat. Companies must continue to buy their own shares in order to artificially prop up prices, and they need cheap Fed money to do that. Stocks are therefore an illusion built only on the whims of the Fed.

  And the reason for the Fed’s dramatic shift away from stimulus and into tightening? One could argue that it’s merely the natural end result of inflationary manipulation; that central banks like the Fed were ignorant or arrogant and they weren’t thinking ahead about the consequences. Except, this is false. The Fed knew EXACTLY what it was doing the whole time, and here’s the proof…

  Way back in 2012 before Jerome Powell became Fed Chairman, he warned of a market crisis if the central bank was to hike rates into economic weakness after so many years of acclimating the system to easy money and QE. During the October 2012 Fed meeting Powell stated:

  “…I think we are actually at a point of encouraging risk-taking, and that should give us pause. Investors really do understand now that we will be there to prevent serious losses. It is not that it is easy for them to make money but that they have every incentive to take more risk, and they are doing so. Meanwhile, we look like we are blowing a fixed-income duration bubble right across the credit spectrum that will result in big losses when rates come up down the road. You can almost say that that is our strategy.”

  In other words, Powell and all other Fed officials knew ten years ago what was going to happen. They knew that they were creating a massive financial bubble and that when they raised rates that bubble would collapse causing serious economic damage. Yet, they kept expanding the bubble, and now with Powell as chairman, they are popping the bubble. No one honest can claim that the central bankers were “blind” or ignorant. This is an engineered crash, not an accidental crash.

  If the crash is deliberate then it is a means to an end, and there is no reason for the Fed to intervene to save markets at this time. Some people will argue that this puts a target on the Fed as a saboteur of the economy, and they wonder why the central bankers would put themselves at risk? Because they have a rationale, a way out, and it’s called “stagflation.”

  Price inflation coupled with negative GDP is the basis for a stagflationary environment. The only other factor that is missing in the US today is rising unemployment, but this problem will arrive soon as numerous companies are slated to start layoffs in the winter. Stagflation is the Fed’s perfect excuse for continuing to raise interest rates despite plunging stocks. If they don’t hike rates then price inflation runs rampant and GDP declines anyway. If they return to QE then an inflationary calamity ensues.

  In order to “save us,” they have to hurt us. That’s the excuse they will use.

  It’s a Catch-22 event that they created, and I believe they created it with a purpose. But let’s imagine for a moment that the Fed has the best interests of the economy at heart; would a pivot back to QE change anything?

  Not in the long run. Rising inflation is going to crush what’s left of the system anyway. Supply chain problems will only get worse as costs rise. To return to stimulus would indeed put a target on the central bankers. It’s better for them to pretend as if they are trying to fix the problem rather than continue with policies that everyone knows are draining pocket books.

  Stocks saw a brief rebound this past week for one reason and one reason only – Rumors of a Fed pivot were spread and investors were hoping for a stop to rate hikes or a glorious return to stimulus measures. We will see many short rebounds in stocks like this over the next year, each one initiated by rumors of a reversal in policy. It’s not going to happen.

  Will the Fed stop rate hikes? Sure, probably when the Fed funds rate is between 4% to 5%. Will that mean a reversal is on the horizon? No, it won’t. And it won’t mean that the Fed is done with rate hikes. They could start hiking again a few months down the road as price inflation persists.

  Will the Fed return to QE? I see no reason why they would. Again, they are fully aware of the damage they have done with the QE bubble and the popping of that bubble. They would not have hiked rates in the first place unless they wanted a crash.

  Consider this: What if the goal of the Fed is the destruction of the middle class? What if they are using the false hopes of small time investors in a return to QE? What if they are luring investors into markets with rumors of a pivot, tricking those investors into pumping money back into markets and then triggering losses yet again with more rate hikes and hawkish language? What if this is a wealth destruction steam valve? What if it’s a trap?

  I present this idea because we have seen this before in the US, from 1929 through the 1930s during the Great Depression. The Fed used very similar tactics to systematically destroy middle class wealth and consolidate power for the international banking elites. I leave you with this admission by former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on the Fed’s involvement in causing the Great depression through rate hikes into weakness…

  “In short, according to Friedman and Schwartz, because of institutional changes and misguided doctrines, the banking panics of the Great Contraction were much more severe and widespread than would have normally occurred during a downturn.

  Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.” – Ben Bernanke, 2002

  Is the Fed really sorry? Or are they just repeating the same strategy they used 90 years ago while acting as if they are unaware of the eventual outcome?

  *  *  *

  After 14 long years of ultra-loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, it’s no secret that inflation is primed to soar. If your IRA or 401(k) is exposed to this threat, it’s critical to act now! That’s why thousands of Americans are moving their retirement into a Gold IRA. Learn how you can too with a free info kit on gold from Birch Gold Group. It reveals the little-known IRS Tax Law to move your IRA or 401(k) into gold. Click here to get your free Info Kit on Gold.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 21:25

• These Are The World's Most-Surveilled Cities
  These Are The World’s Most-Surveilled Cities

  This may come as a surprise, but it wasn’t until 2007 that the global urban population overtook the rural population. At that time, the two groups were split nearly 50/50, with around 3.3 billion people apiece.

  Today, the percentage of people living in urban areas has grown to over 55%, and is expected to reach 68% by 2050. Due to this trend, many of the world’s largest cities have become home to tens of millions of people.

  In response to such incredible density, governments, businesses, and households have installed countless security cameras for various purposes including crime protection. To grasp the scale of this surveillance, Visual Capitalist’s Marcu Lu used data from a recent report by Comparitech to visualize the most surveilled cities in the world.

  

  The List (Excluding China)

  Excluding China for the time being, these are the world’s 10 most surveilled cities.

  

  The top four cities all belong to India, which is the world’s second largest country by population. Surveillance cameras are playing a major role in the country’s efforts to reduce crimes against women.

  Further down the list are cities from a variety of countries. One of these is Russia, which has expanded its use of surveillance cameras in recent years. Given the country’s track record of human rights violations, activists are worried that facial recognition technology could become a tool of oppression.

  The only U.S. city on the list is Los Angeles, which contains some of the country’s wealthiest neighborhoods and municipalities. That includes Beverly Hills, which according to the Los Angeles Times, has over 2,000 cameras for its population of 32,500. That translates to about 62 cameras per 1,000 people, meaning that Beverly Hills would finish at #2 in the global ranking if it were listed as a separate entity.

  Surveillance in China

  IHS Markit estimates that as of 2021, there are over 1 billion surveillance cameras installed worldwide. The firm also believes that 54% of these cameras are located in China.

  Because of limited transparency, it’s impossible to pinpoint how many cameras are actually in each Chinese city. However, if we assume that China has 540 million cameras and divide that amongst its population of 1.46 billion, we can reasonably say that there are 373 cameras per 1,000 people (figures rounded).

  

  A limitation of this approach is that it assumes everyone in China lives in a city, which is far from reality. The most recent World Bank figures suggest that 37% of China’s population is rural, which equates to over 500 million people.

  With this in mind, the number of cameras per 1,000 people in a Tier 1+ Chinese city (e.g. Shanghai) is likely far greater than 373.

  More About China

  China’s expansive use of cameras and facial recognition technology has been widely documented in the media. These networks enable the country’s social credit program, which gives local governments an unprecedented amount of oversight over its citizens.

  For example, China’s camera networks can be used to verify ATM withdrawals, permit access into homes, and even publicly shame people for minor offences like jaywalking.

  This might sound like a dystopian nightmare to Western audiences, but according to Chinese citizens, it’s mostly a good thing. In a 2018 survey of 2,209 citizens, 80% of respondents approved of social credit systems.

  If you’re interested in learning more about surveillance in Chinese cities, consider this video from The Economist, which explores the opportunities and dangers of comprehensive state control.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 20:50

• FBI Team Involved In Censorship Of Hunter Biden Laptop Story Identified
  FBI Team Involved In Censorship Of Hunter Biden Laptop Story Identified

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

  The FBI team that was in communication with Facebook before the social media company censored the original Hunter Biden laptop story has been identified, according to a new court filing.

  

  Meta, Facebook’s parent company, identified the team as the FBI’s Foreign Influence Task Force (FITF), according to an updated complaint entered late on Oct. 6.

  Meta named the team after receiving a subpoena in a case alleging the federal government pressured Big Tech firms to censor users.

  “Pursuant to the third-party subpoena, Meta has identified the FBI’s FITF, as supervised by Laura Dehmlow, and Elvis Chan as involved in the communications between the FBI and Meta that led to Facebook’s suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop story,” the updated complaint states.

  Mark Zuckberg, Meta’s CEO, said in August that Facebook reduced the reach of posts about Hunter Biden’s laptop in response to advice from the FBI.

  “The background here is the FBI I think basically came to some folks on our team [and] were like, ‘Hey, just so you know, you should be on high alert. We thought that there was a lot of Russian propaganda in the 2016 election, we have it on notice that basically there’s about to be some kind of dump similar to that, so just be vigilant,’” Zuckerberg said on Joe Rogan’s podcast. He made similar comments before the Senate in 2020.

  “One of the threats that the FBI has alerted our company and the public to was the possibility of a hack and leak operation in the days or weeks leading up to this election,” Zuckerberg said then. Those alerts “suggested we be on high alert and sensitivity if a trove of documents appeared that we should view that with suspicion that it might be part of a foreign manipulation attempt,” he added.

  The FBI did not respond to a request for comment on the updated lawsuit, which now names the FBI as a defendant. The bureau said previously that it is routinely in touch with U.S. companies but “cannot ask, or direct, companies to take action on information received.”

  2 Officials

  The FITF was established by FBI Director Christopher Wray in 2017 “to identify and counteract malign foreign influence operations targeting the United States,” according to the bureau’s website. Such operations include covert actions by outside governments aimed at influencing the American political scene or discourse, the bureau has said.

  Laura Dehmlow is a supervisor of FITF. She has been named as a defendant in the case along with Elvis Chan, a special agent who manages the cyber branch at the FBI’s San Francisco Field Office.

  According to new documents produced by the government as part of discovery in the case, Dehmlow briefed the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s (CISA) Cybersecurity Advisory Committee on March 1, 2022. Minutes of the meeting show Dehmlow telling members that the FITF actually started in 2016 and has since grown to 80 workers.

  Asked about goals for approaching mal-, mis-, and disinformation, Dehmlow said that “we need a media infrastructure that is held accountable; we need to early educate the populace; and that today, critical thinking seems to be a problem currently,” according to the minutes.

  Chan, meanwhile, bragged on a recent podcast that the San Francisco office “was very involved in helping to protect the US elections in 2020” by working with private companies and election officials. He also indicated he works closely with CISA Director Jen Easterly, who has been revealed to have taken part in pressuring Big Tech companies to crack down on alleged misinformation.

  “We talked with all of these entities I mentioned regularly, at least on a monthly basis. And right before the election, probably on a weekly basis. If they were seeing anything unusual, if we were seeing anything unusual, sharing intelligence with technology companies, with social media companies, so that they could protect their own platforms. That’s where the FBI and the US government can actually help companies,” Chan said.

  Plaintiffs in the case said that helping social media companies protect their platforms “includes censorship and suppression of speech at the FBI’s behest.”

  Chan also organized meetings with LinkedIn from 2020 through the present, with agendas provided indicating the meetings included going over censoring election-related posts on social media. Chan organized similar meetings with other Big Tech firms, plaintiffs said.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 20:15

• Ebola Is Back: US To Screen Passengers From Uganda
  Ebola Is Back: US To Screen Passengers From Uganda

  US-bound travelers who have been to Uganda within the previous 21 days will be redirected to five major American airports to screen for Ebola, after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday issued an alert to healthcare workers to raise awareness about the current outbreak.

  

  The agency said there were currently no suspected or confirmed cases of the disease on US soil, as the Sudan strain of Ebola fuels the latest infections in Uganda.

  According to Uganda’s Health Ministry, at least nine people had died of the disease in Uganda by Oct. 3, since authorities in the east African nation announced the outbreak of the deadly hemorrhagic fever on Sept. 20. It added there are 43 total cases, including the deaths.

  U.S. screening was beginning on Thursday at airports but the funnelling requirements are expected to take effect within the coming week or so, a source told Reuters. –GH Standard

  “Out of an abundance of caution (CDC) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will apply new layers of screening at these five U.S. airports in response to the Ebola outbreak in Uganda,” said the US Embassy in Uganda.

  The five airports are, JFK, Newark, Atlanta, Chicago O’Hare and Washington Dulles.

  According to two sources, around 140 people who regularly go to Uganda are arriving daily in the US, with 62% of those landing at one of those five airports.

  University of Minnesota infectious disease expert Dr. Michael Osterholm said the CDC’s health alert is a reminder that people should be prepared for outbreaks to spread.

  “We can handle Ebola safely in the hospital setting and provide the best care to the patient, but you have to be aware that it might even be a possibility,” he said, referring to a 2014 incident in which an Ebola-stricken passenger who had been to Liberia was initially turned away by a hospital in Dallas – and then admitted two days later when he arrived by ambulance.

  “The key message is if you see someone with a clinical illness and they had a history of being in Uganda, that’s where you want to concentrate your efforts,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 19:40

• The Fed's Real Mandate
  The Fed’s Real Mandate

  Authored by Mark Thronton via The Mises Institute,

  The Federal Reserve has a legal dual mandate to minimize unemployment and price inflation. The current “dual” between the two mandates is to reduce price inflation by increasing interest rates to increase unemployment and kill businesses to choke off aggregate demand. This has been the most important economic and investment issue this year and this dual minimization procedure has dominated Fed policy for at least three-quarters of a century.

  This is odd given that the Fed is in the business of creating money, the cause of price inflation, and it is responsible for all the largest surges in unemployment since its founding in 1913. Employing an army of monetary economists, macro theorists, and statisticians, the Fed appears to be pursuing its quixotic quest of the Phillips curve sweet spot of minimizing inflation and unemployment.

  The real mandate of the Fed is serving its masters, the political elites, by financing government spending and debt, bailing out cronies, and supporting the political process, including the Fed’s own interests. Everything else, including the inflation and unemployment rates are derivative of the primary mandate.

  

  The so-called dual mandate is just subterfuge to protect the Fed’s “confidence game.”

  The Quest of the False Mandate

  In The Fed Explained: What the Central Bank Does, we learn how control of the Fed is “decentralized.” This might sound good to some supporters of the free market. However, any hint of decentralization, such as the importance of District Banks, is long gone and the remnant is merely a diversion or historical curiosity. Of the twelve votes on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) there are only four of twelve rotating District Bank presidents voting, plus the President of the New York Fed. The central Board of Governors in Washington DC has seven voting members who are appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate and has nearly twice the voting power over interest rate decisions. Plus, the Chairman (Powell) has the power of the bully pulpit and is the consensus builder on the FOMC.

  We are also told of the balancing of public and private (banks’) interests controlling the Fed and some free-market supporters latch onto the influence of the private sector as an effective check on the Fed’s enormous economic power. Big banks do work directly with the Fed in “open market operations” and interact in the day-to-day business of banking regulation. Commercial banks have some voting power within the District Banks. However, this influence is contingent on political goals and even the big banks can be pawns in the Fed’s political chess game. Their shares are “nonnegotiable” and are nothing like shares in private corporations. Banking interests are clearly derivative, and the Fed has thrown such interests overboard when necessary, such as with the Savings and Loan Crisis or Lehman Bros. In any case, the union of public and private interests is the ultimate source of corruption and can be the greatest threat to human liberty. Such private interests are clearly not a bulwark of liberty.

  It is true that the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was established and intended to be a cartel device for the banks and some banks are better protected than others. Marx and Engels (1848) called for the establishment of central banks and thereafter Americans were increasingly duped by socialist ideology. This socialist influence was an important force during the so-called Progressive Era (1890–1920). History textbooks make the Federal Reserve Act appear to be the result of a coalition of popular interests. However, the big banks and their academic technocrats controlled by political elites, created and controlled the legislative campaign with their “independent” National Monetary Commission.

  A final and critical canard about the Fed is its “independence.” We are told that the Fed must be independent of political power to carry out its mandates and be effective. In this vein, if the Fed were to succumb to political pressures, then it would continually increase the money supply and suppress interest rates below market determined levels, especially before elections. This they tell us would destabilize the economy and might lead to hyperinflation the way it does under dictatorships where central banks do not have independence. I’m sure the Fed would love to be independent, but they are controlled by powerful office holders who are in turn controlled by the elites. As Ryan McMaken reminds us, “Fed independence is a fairy tale academic economists like to tell their students” and they are biased toward the inflationary mandate.

  The sturdiness of the False Mandate is also bolstered by the ever-expanding duties and powers of the Fed. The original mandate of the Fed spoke of macroeconomic stability and an elastic currency to promote maximum employment and low inflation. The mandate also spoke to stable prices and the purchasing power of the dollar. These roles have been updated to include such things as “moderate” long-term interest rates, but the Fed has other duties concerning the banking and financial industry, maximizing the long run productive capacity of the economy, and even growth in money supply aggregates. Some in Congress even want the Fed to act on issues such as economic inequality and global warming. Despite these added duties, it is the false dual mandate that provides cover for the Fed. In addition to covering its tracks in the short run, the Fed’s expanding power and duties also illustrates Ludwig von Mises’s theory of the mixed economy and progressive interventionism—the ever-increasing need for power to address past errors of policy.

  Revealing the Real Mandate

  In recent years the Fed has become increasingly interventionist along with its ever-expanding mission creep and the necessity of solving problems of its own making. As a result, the Fed’s veneer of science in the service of the public good has worn thin. For example, once upon a time, the Fed dealt with only short-term government securities. These US Treasury debts were only of the shortest duration, borrowings for ninety days or less under the “bills only” doctrine. The idea was to manage short term rates so that longer term rates could be minimized.

  Of course, the Fed has increased its domain to include longer term government debts of any duration, including thirty-year bonds. In recent years, it has also become the dominant holder of mortgages and other securitized instruments. Mortgages now make up a huge proportion of its balance sheet and it has become the big player on the supply side of the US mortgage market. Then there are the trillions of quantitative easing (QE). They are not even sure how QE works, but it bailed out the political elites who were able to exchange their risky assets with their friends at the Fed and earn risk free interest on their excess reserves. All of this did nothing good for the general public and set up the current collapse.

  With a massive inflationary wave behind them, the Fed now speaks of reducing its balance sheet and of reversing its QE policies, selling massive amounts of government debt and mortgages back into the market. Their plan increases interest rates on government debt, mortgages, and everything else with the goal of reducing price inflation. This quantitative tightening (QT) has thus far only reduced the overall Fed balance sheet from about $9 trillion in May to about $8.85 trillion today.

  With a potential powder keg of an election upon us and financial markets already in turmoil, the Fed’s timid tightening policies make sense. In addition to barely budging on QT, they have only raised the federal funds rate from 0 percent to 2.3 percent in 2022 when a “normal” federal funds rate is probably about 3 percent and an “inflation fighting” rate is much higher. They are causing real economic pain, but their greatest efforts have been in terms of “moral suasion” that is not moral or true persuasion, but simply a devious deception: disingenuous speeches and public comments threatening draconian interest rate hikes to gas light a higher dollar and help stave off ongoing price increases, at least until election day.

  

  The real mandate of the Fed is rigging the political system in favor of the political elites. It is not a scientifically driven policy, but rather an effort to misdirect its own impact as the fault of the free market. The Fed is a political institution that is the primary cause of price inflation, cyclical unemployment, and economic crises! Over time the world has been taken off the gold standard and put on an ever more dangerous course of boom-and-bust economic cycles.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 19:05

• Haiti Asks For International Forces To Break Gangs' Blockade Of Fuel Terminal
  Haiti Asks For International Forces To Break Gangs’ Blockade Of Fuel Terminal

  The Haitian government will ask the international community to send “a special police force” to break the blockade imposed on the country’s principal fuel terminal by a powerful federation of gangs. 

  “It was decided in the Council of Ministers last night … to ask the international community for a special police force to deal with such an unbelievable humanitarian crisis,” a spokesman for Prime Minister Ariel Henry said Friday.  

  A State Department spokesman said the Biden administration is evaluating a request to help create a humanitarian corridor so the flow of fuel throughout the country can resume. U.S. officials are also consulting with other governments. 

  The coalition of nine gangs blocked the entrance to the Varreux fuel terminal in the capital city of Port-au-Prince last month in response to the government’s announcement of a reduction in fuel subsidies. 

  While the fuel terminal blockade is the Haitian government’s most pressing challenge, it’s not clear just how broad an intervention against the gangs the government is seeking.

  Haiti has also been beset by widespread looting:

  “In the last two weeks alone, attacks on [World Food Program] have resulted in the loss of some 2,000 tons of food aid valued at close to $5 million, that would have collectively supported up to 200,000 of the most vulnerable Haitians over the next month,” Haitian envoy Helen La Lime told the UN Security Council last week.   

  WATCH: #BNNHaiti Reports:

  Haiti’s food shortage is worsening with recent reports of warehouse and food looting in neighboring Dominican Republic zones.

  A cholera outbreak has been discovered, adding to the country’s ongoing social, humanitarian, security, and political crisis. pic.twitter.com/LOGax456Y8

  — Gurbaksh Singh Chahal (@gchahal) October 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The weeks-long fuel blockade has taken a steep toll. In addition to paralyzing the economy and creating food shortages, it’s contributing to drinking water shortages by stalling water treatment operations, and thwarting the country’s battle with a cholera outbreak by forcing the closure of medical facilities. 

  The gang coalition — called G9 Families and Allies and led by former police officer Jimmy “Barbecue” Chérizier — is seeking to topple Prime Minister Ariel Henry. Standing at the entrance of the fuel terminal, Chérizier said: 

  “We are sending this message to Ariel Henry: ‘Resign. Resign to give the country a chance.’ For the moment, you are the one executing the plan to destroy the Haitian people. We are removing you because of that.” 

  

  Haitian gangs have grown more powerful — and violent — since the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Outbreaks of inter-gang warfare periodically take hundreds of lives. For example, a 10-day stretch of gun battles in the slums of Cité Soleil in July reportedly killed 300 people and wounded another 160. 

  Despite the dire situation, many Haitians are wary of international intervention. For starters, a Nepalese UN contingent is believed to have triggered a years-long cholera epidemic in Haiti that began in 2010 and killed upwards of 10,000 people.  

  Also, it’s important to stress that gangs aren’t the only Haitians pushing for Henry’s resignation. Protestors are demanding his removal too, with many calling him a U.S. puppet. Putting U.S. troops in Haiti could thus exacerbate the situation. 

  Another shot of massive protest in #Haiti‘s capital today demanding US-backed govt of Ariel Henry resign and a true Haitian govt of national unity take charge without foreign interference. pic.twitter.com/kcLLCQOV36

  — HaitiInfoProj (@HaitiInfoProj) September 27, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The same groups that stripped Haiti’s sovereignty away, will continue to work to make it a permanent condition.

  The US, Canada, France, Core Group, OAS, USAID, UNSC – THESE ARE THE TRUE GANGS OF HAITI

  — JPierre (@grosmorne29) October 7, 2022

  Former Haiti elections minister Mathias Pierre says he’s worried about how foreign military forces would address the situation.

  “I don’t think Haiti needs another intervention,” he told the Associated Press. “It’s not an army they’re facing. ​​They’re facing gangs located in poor areas…using the population as shields to protect themselves.”

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Haiti’s plea comes in the wake of a Thursday meeting of Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Haiti Foreign Affairs Minister Jean Victor Généus and other governments’ officials. The meeting was led by Luis Almagro, Secretary General of the Organization of American States. Almagro has routinely backed aggressive intervention by the United States throughout the region. 

  

  On Thursday, Almagro tweeted that he’d “called on Haiti to request urgent support from international community to help solve security crisis and determine characteristics of the international security force.”  

  While the United Nations hasn’t yet received an official request for intervention, spokesman Stephane Dujarric acknowledged the grim situation in the Caribbean country:

  “We remain extremely concerned about the security situation in Haiti, the impact it’s having on the Haitian people, on our ability to do our work, especially in the humanitarian sphere.” 

  Americans leery of another foreign commitment of U.S. troops should take note: The United Nations’ last peacekeeping presence in Haiti lasted 13 years. 

  

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 18:30

• PayPal Reverses Course, Says Company Will Not Seize Money From People For Promoting 'Misinformation'
  PayPal Reverses Course, Says Company Will Not Seize Money From People For Promoting ‘Misinformation’

  Authored by Zachary Steiber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  PayPal on Oct. 8 said it was not implementing a new policy that would have enabled the company to seize money from users who allegedly promote “misinformation” or “hate.”

  “An AUP notice recently went out in error that included incorrect information. PayPal is not fining people for misinformation and this language was never intended to be inserted in our policy,” a PayPal spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email.

  “Our teams are working to correct our policy pages. We’re sorry for the confusion this has caused,” the spokesperson added.

  The company in September announced that it was amending its acceptable use policy, or AUP.

  The policy, due to take effect in November, said that users may not use PayPal to for the “sending, posting, or publication of any messages, content, or materials that, in PayPal’s sole discretion, (a) are harmful, obscene, harassing, or objectionable, (b) depict or appear to depict nudity, sexual or other intimate activities, (c) depict or promote illegal drug use, (d) depict or promote violence, criminal activity, cruelty, or self-harm (e) depict, promote, or incite hatred or discrimination of protected groups or of individuals or groups based on protected characteristics (e.g. race, religion, gender or gender identity, sexual orientation, etc.) (f) present a risk to user safety or wellbeing, (g) are fraudulent, promote misinformation, or are unlawful, (h) infringe the privacy, intellectual property rights, or other proprietary rights of any party, or (i) are otherwise unfit for publication.”

  For each violation, PayPal says users are subject to repercussions. Those include “liquated damages” of $2,500 per violation. The money will be taken directly from a person’s PayPal account.

  Users were directed to PayPal’s user agreement, which states in part that PayPal can take a number of actions if users participate in restricted activities, such as holding their money in balance indefinitely. It also says that “you will be liable to PayPal for the amount of PayPal’s damages caused by your violation of the Acceptable Use Policy” at the amount of $2,500 per violation.

  That money will cover internal administrative costs for PayPal to monitor and track violations and damage to PayPal’s brand, among other costs, according to the agreement.

  Scores of people noticed the pending update in recent days and many announced on social media they would be closing their accounts.

  “Seriously, close your PayPal account immediately if they don’t reverse this today,” Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, said.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 17:55

• On The Path To Hyperinflation
  On The Path To Hyperinflation

  Authored by Tuomas Malinen via The Epoch Times,

  I have had a series of conversations lately on how did we, the world, get to this point? I think that it’s a valid question, considering how well things were in the 1990s after the Soviet Union had collapsed.

  The really interesting follow-up question is: Has this deterioration been a series of mere random events, or have we been somehow guided to this point?

  

  I think there have been two major “game changers”: the 9/11 terrorist strikes and the global financial crisis of 2008–09 (GFC). If you really consider the aftermath of these events, it’s rather clear that we never really returned to the status quo after either.

  The 9/11 terrorist attacks started an escalating series of conflicts around the world, which have now turned into a Russian–Ukrainian war. I have my own worries that the war in Ukraine is, in veritate, not proceeding as presented in the Western media, which is likely to rather strongly follow the Ukrainian propaganda. As the late California Republican Senator Hiram Johnson once said, in 1918: “The first casualty when war comes is truth.” I have detailed my doubts in my newsletter.

  The global financial crisis, on the other hand, changed our economic landscape, rather permanently, which is now converging with the war-related costs to create an extremely precarious economic situation.

  If someone had told me in the early 2000s that in in the 2010s, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, would be buying hundreds of billions’ worth of government bonds each month, I would have wished him/her a nice trip to an asylum. The mere idea would have sounded so preposterous at the time. But after the financial crisis—there we were.

  The Federal Reserve started the asset purchases on Nov. 25, 2008, and slowly but surely all major central banks followed. It became the biggest central bank money-conjuring operation in history!

  In 2020, the size of the combined balance sheet of the four largest central banks—the Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the People’s Bank of China—reached an insane 32 percent of the gross domestic product of the world.

  

  A figure presenting the balance sheet of the four largest central banks as a share of the gross domestic product of the world. (GnS Economics / Bank of Japan / European Central Bank / People’s Bank of China / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / International Monetary Fund)

  Like I have been detailing, this had some serious repercussions for the financial markets and the real economy (see, e.g., this, this and this).

  However, the main point to understand is that if you artificially and vastly increase the amount of money in circulation, it will increase prices. This may occur with a lag, meaning that money may increase considerably without causing any noticeable increase in the price level. Then a supply-side shock, like an oil shock, hits and prices start to rise.

  Combined with the greatly increased money in circulation, this shock, if it persists, will put in motion a process whereby prices increase but the demand will not come down, because it is supported by the vast amounts of money slushing around in the economy. When a sustained demand meets ailing supply, prices naturally continue rising. Then consumers will notice that the purchasing power of their wages is declining, and they start to demand higher salaries. At this point, fast inflation becomes self-sustaining. This process can be further supported by government subsidies and support.

  This is the self-sustaining process of inflation central banks helped to create.

  As I  explained previously, this is not “President Putin’s inflation” but central bankers’ and governments’ inflation. The thing is that almost every Western government helped to create the inflation crisis by artificially sustaining demand during a time when supply was artificially constrained because of lockdowns through stimulus checks and other such schemes.

  

  A figure presenting the development of the M2 (broad money) money aggregate consisting of currency and coins held by the non-bank public, savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits under $100,000, and shares in retail money market mutual funds in the United States in billions of dollars. (GnS Economics / National Bureau of Economic Research / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  We in Europe are about to fulfill two preconditions for one of the most destructive economic phenomenon known to man: hyperinflation.

  The ravaging inflations in the Weimar Republic during the early 1920s, in Russia in the early 1990s, and in Zimbabwe in 2007–15 taught us that the two preconditions for a rapid decline in the value of money—hyperinflation—were and are:

  1. The creation of vast amounts of central bank credit (money). (Check!)

  2. The diminution of production capabilities to a serious degree. (Almost there.)

  At the end, hyperinflation is always, always, a political decision. While the diminution (or “destruction”) of production capabilities can be caused by a nonpolitical force (like an earthquake), usually it is caused by an abrupt political-induced shock, like war and/or sanctions.

  There is also very little other than political reasons to keep printing—that is, creating vast amounts of central bank credit (money)—for an extended period of time.

  During the Weimar Republic and in Russia during the early 1990s, both governments decided that instead of painful reforms and a likely default, they would try to uphold national demand and production by monetizing their budget deficits. In Zimbabwe, the reasons were a bit more numerous, but all the problems were met by more deficit financing by the government.

  In the process of monetization, a central bank usually buys the debt issued by the finance ministry (or Treasury), and the central bank then nullifies the value of the bonds, which creates a loss, which is then covered by issuing new currency notes (physical or digital) to reconcile its balance sheet, which increases money in circulation. Government uses this newly created money to sustain its consumption, provide subsidies and different schemes, like job guarantees.

  Then, sustained or even growing demand combined with increasing money in circulation meet declining production, leading to a very rapid pace of inflation. As inflation accelerates, consumers, firms, and workers start to expect ever-higher inflation, which, combined with the quickly increasing supply of money from the central bank, destroys public faith in the currency. A hyperinflation emerges, which is technically defined as a 50 percent monthly increase in consumer prices.

  Central banks have already done their “job” on this path, by vastly increasing the money in circulation; but they could make it exponentially worse by ending monetary tightening. This especially is relevant as governments in Europe are pouring bailout money to households and governments, which will artificially sustain demand in a situation, where high prices would push down the demand. At the same time, industrial production in Europe is shutting down. Europe is effectively facing a process of deindustrialization.

  This combination—excess money, growing government spending, and falling production—is the exact recipe for a ravaging inflation.

  The real tragedy is that we have had all the knowledge necessary to avoid the creation of vast asset market bubbles and fast inflation, but our leaders have refused to listen to the (true) experts, economics and economic history. Now, if our policymakers in Europe, or elsewhere, push us into a hyperinflation, we don’t have to wonder anymore about the question I posed above.

  Because in that case, our political leaders are either utterly incompetent or they are deliberately trying to destroy our living standards.

  And if that point is reached, they all need to go.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 16:45

• Your Next Pain Will Be Soaring Electricity Costs As Energy Crisis Comes To America
  Your Next Pain Will Be Soaring Electricity Costs As Energy Crisis Comes To America

  One central theme that comes to mind is the impact of higher natural gas prices and, by extension, power prices. Americans will soon see higher gasoline prices at the pump because of OPEC+ production cuts slated for next month. Many folks will also see their electricity bills rise this winter because NatGas generators power a large percentage of the country’s grid. This is a double whammy for hundreds of millions of Americans ahead of the midterm elections in about a month — as Democrats scramble to find solutions to tame the energy crisis. 

  From the blowing up of the Nord Stream pipeline system in the Baltic Sea (in NATO’s backyard) to reduced Russian NatGas flows to Europe to soaring US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe, NatGas markets will be very tight everywhere this winter. 

  “With US gas storage finishing this summer well below average levels, and lower than what we expected previously owing to strong power burns, we believe there is a mispricing of this upside risk to gas prices in the near-term,” Goldman Sach commodity analyst Samantha Dart wrote in a note to clients last month. 

  Dart revised her Winter 2022-2023 forecast up to $7.75/mmBtu from the previous $6.93/mmBtu on renewed tightening fears, and her view of US LNG exports will be higher. The Freeport LNG outage is expected to be resolved next month, increasing LNG exports to the EU. 

  

  Prices of NatGas are trading about 94% higher than at the start of the year and 370% higher than the 2020 lows.

  

  This means that power generation units at utilities will be even more expensive to operate and pass along costs to end users. 

  “We’re looking at fairly high gas prices, so all things equal, electricity prices should be higher as well,” Sarah Emerson, managing principal at ESAI Energy, told Yahoo Finance. “We’re going to have a pretty strong winter [for prices].”

  A recent National Energy Assistance Directors Association forecast said the average US household heating bill is expected to increase by 17.2%. 

  “The rise in home energy costs this winter will put millions of lower-income families [at] risk of falling behind on their energy bills and having no choice but to make difficult decisions between paying for food, medicine and rent,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of NEADA.

  OilPrice.com’s Robert Rapier explains more about soaring electricity costs for Americans in the months ahead due in part to the global energy crisis that is finally washing ashore. 

  And even before the cold season begins, there are 20 million households behind on their power bills. Now power companies are renegotiating power contracts with households, increasing the price per kilowatt substantially. 

  A double whammy at the gas pump and utility bill should stoke discontent with many Americans who’ve been battered by high inflation under the Biden administration as the Federal Reserve attempts to quell high prices with aggressive interest rate hikes that could plunge households into even more financial chaos by stoking a 2023 recession. What a mess the elites in Washington have caused. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 16:10

• Watch What They Do Instead Of What They Say
  Watch What They Do Instead Of What They Say

  Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

  Actions speak louder than words.  Let me put it another way.  Most of the time, what people do is so much more important than what they say.  This is especially true when it comes to government officials, because many government officials lie as easily as they breathe.  Over and over again, we are being told that there is nothing to be concerned about and that our leaders have everything under control.  But then we keep getting more signs that more war is coming.  In fact, it appears that preparations are being made for scenarios that would have once been unthinkable.

  

  Let me give you an example of what I am talking about.  On Thursday, we learned that the U.S. government is spending almost 300 million dollars to buy radiation sickness drugs…

  The US has stocked up on radiation sickness drugs just weeks after Vladimir Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons against the West.

  Officials said the deal — worth $290 million — was ‘part of ongoing work’ and ‘has not been accelerated’ by the Kremlin leader’s escalating rhetoric.

  The drug that is being purchased is known as Nplate, and it is used “to reduce bleeding caused by acute radiation syndrome”.

  This is not a cheap medication at all.  It is being reported that a single dose can cost “between $1,000 and $2,500”…

  However, the timing will likely raise questions given that this is the first time the US Government has bought Nplate.

  It is unclear how many doses the order covers, but the drug normally fetches between $1,000 and $2,500 per dose.

  A nuclear war would be the only reason why we would ever need such a high number of doses.

  So why is such a large purchase being made if Biden administration officials are assuring us that there is almost zero chance of a nuclear conflict with Russia?

  Something doesn’t add up.

  Meanwhile, both sides continue to escalate the conflict in Ukraine.

  The mainstream media keeps telling us that the “Ukrainian Army” is whipping the Russians right now, but that is not exactly accurate.

  The Ukrainian Army that existed at the beginning of the war was largely decimated as the Russians steadily gained territory for months.

  But now a new “Ukrainian Army” is pushing the Russians back, and it turns out that this new “Ukrainian Army” has a very high percentage of foreign mercenaries…

  Mercenaries from Eastern Europe account for 60%-70% of the Ukrainian army’s manpower near Lugansk, an aide to the LPR’s interior minister, Vitaly Kiselyov, said on Wednesday.

  “In practice, 60%, in some cases, 70% of Ukraine’s military personnel are mercenaries from Eastern Europe,” he said on Russia’s TV Channel 1.

  A lot has been made of the fact that there are English-speaking mercenaries involved in the offensive against the Russians, but the truth is that most of the mercenaries are not from wealthy western nations.

  Our money is certainly paying for them, but most of the troops are actually coming from the poor countries of eastern Europe.

  If you can believe it, some are actually making as much as $3,000 a day…

  Kiselyov also added that Albanian mercenaries were paid $2,000-$3,000 a day and mercenaries from European countries, $35,000-$40,000 a month.

  If you can stay alive, it is a way to make a lot of money in a short period of time.

  And to a large extent, the American taxpayers are footing the bill.

  Another thing that we are being told that is not exactly true is that we are not likely to go to war with China.

  We are being told this over and over again, but meanwhile it is being reported that U.S. officials “are intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan”…

  American officials are intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan after studying recent naval and air force exercises by the Chinese military around the island, according to current and former officials.

  The exercises showed that China would probably blockade the island as a prelude to any attempted invasion, and Taiwan would have to hold out on its own until the United States or other nations intervened, if they decided to do that, the current and former officials say.

  Why would we build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan if there was no threat of invasion?

  Actually, by arming Taiwan so heavily we are making an invasion more likely.  The Chinese are getting angrier and angrier, but we just keep provoking them.

  Before I end this article, I want to talk about the rising tensions between North Korea and South Korea.

  The North Koreans really do not like the new South Korean leader, and on Thursday there was an incident that made international news…

  An unusually large number of South Korean fighter jets were scrambled today in response to reported air-to-surface firing exercises flown by North Korean warplanes, on the other side of the border. The incidents add to tensions around Korea, where a tit-for-tat campaign of surface-to-surface missile launches continues, as part of potentially provocative exercises on both sides of the Korean Demilitarized Zone as well as in the waters off the peninsula.

  The South Korean Yonhap news agency reported that a formation of at least 12 North Korean warplanes “presumably conducted a firing exercise” today, with aerial activity “north of the inter-Korean air boundary.” The location of the drills took the North Korean aircraft from Koksan County to Hwangju County in North Hwanghae Province, a process that took around an hour, according to the Korea Herald. North Hwanghae Province is situated on the western end of the border between the two Koreas.

  Of course this wasn’t the first time that the North Koreans have done something provocative this week.

  On Wednesday evening, they fired a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan…

  North Korea fired a ballistic missile that likely flew over Japan, the militaries of South Korea and Japan said Wednesday evening.

  The unidentified ballistic missile was fired into the Sea of Japan, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed to NBC News.

  Things with North Korea seemed to be getting better during the Trump era, but now there has been a complete reversal.

  The North Koreans have conducted dozens of missile launches in 2022, and there are rumors that they may soon resume their nuclear tests for the first time in quite a few years…

  As for the North Korean missile launches, these are only the most recent within a growing total, with the tally for this year so far having reached around 40, including a “super-large” intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), back in March. At the same, there are continued concerns among officials in both Washington and Seoul that North Korea could be poised to conduct a nuclear test — its first since 2017.

  I do not believe that a North Korean invasion of South Korea is imminent.

  But if China invades Taiwan, I think that the North Koreans will be extremely tempted to make a move.

  While the U.S. is preoccupied with Russia and China, it would be a golden opportunity for the North Koreans to pour across the border.

  The South Korean military would be completely outmatched, and only massive U.S. intervention could save the day.

  Hopefully such a scenario will not play out any time soon.

  But without a doubt, more war is coming.

  A war between Israel and Iran is far closer than most people would dare to imagine, the Russians will be moving a lot more troops into Ukraine to bolster their existing forces, and I am convinced that the Chinese will move against Taiwan at some point.

  There is no peace on the horizon.

  The third world war has begun, but for now it is still only in the very early stages.

  Unfortunately, politicians all over the globe are determined to show how tough they are, and that is really bad news for all of us.

  *  *  *

  It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 15:35

• "Declaration Of War Without Rules": Russian Officials Fume Over Crimea Bridge Blast As Ukraine Celebrates
  “Declaration Of War Without Rules”: Russian Officials Fume Over Crimea Bridge Blast As Ukraine Celebrates

  Update(1435ET): Russia’s state Investigative Committee has put out a statement saying at least three civilians died as a result of the attack on the Crimean Bridge, which was likely a fertilizer-laden truck bombing. “According to preliminary data, three people died as a result of the incident. They were presumably passengers of a car, which was near the exploded track. As of now, the bodies of a man and a women have been recovered from the water, their identities are being established,” the committee said. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova at the same time blasted what she called the “criminal logic” of some NATO officials who are positively cheering the attack.

  Ukrainian government sources have owned up to the attack, but this claim of responsibility stopped short of being made publicly or officially: “A Ukrainian government official told The Washington Post that the country’s special services were behind the attack, though Kyiv stopped short of saying it was responsible — even as top officials taunted Moscow.” As for the taunting and trolling, the official Twitter account for the government of Ukraine also tweeted out:

  sick burn

  — Ukraine / Україна (@Ukraine) October 8, 2022

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  A fire which had raged for hours at the scene, particularly freight which had been on the rail part of the bridge that had burned out of control, now appears to be out – allowing Russian investigators to view the full extent of the damage.

  A large section of bridge which has been vital to Russian military supply lines has been totally collapsed, with entire sections of roadway having fallen into the water below.

  Even closer images of the Crimean Bridge, fire seems to have burnt itself out. pic.twitter.com/AdO3yabZjh

  — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 8, 2022

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  One or two lanes of the bridge weren’t directly impacted, with reports that this section of bridge has already resumed traffic, with the Kremlin saying ferry traffic is to assist in transporting more.

  This is what the Crimean bridge looks like now.

  Russian journalists showed footage after the fire was extinguished.

  One lane out of four works – cars only. pic.twitter.com/zSuG1AoS0w

  — ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) October 8, 2022

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  Russia has almost finished restoring rail service over the bombed Crimean Bridge.

  This is video of the first train transiting the repaired bridge span.

  The combination of restored rail and car service makes the strategic consequences of the bombing negligible. pic.twitter.com/xmTMKceuLK

  — Clint Ehrlich (@ClintEhrlich) October 8, 2022

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  In the aftermath of the major attack on Russian infrastructure, there’s growing speculation that President Vladimir Putin could be poised to declare full war on Ukraine, escalating far past the currently dubbed “special operation”. Some prominent Russian politicians are loudly calling for an equal response to Ukraine’s own “declaration of war” in the attack, according to state media sources: 

  “The terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge is no longer just a challenge, but a declaration of war without rules,” said Russia’s State Duma on October 8 after an explosion rocked the Kerch Strait crossing earlier this morning.

  Speaking to RIA Novosti, Deputy Oleg Morozov said that the explosion was “a blatant terrorist war is being waged against us.”

  …if there is no “adequate” response, such acts of aggression would be more likely to occur. “If we keep silent in response and do not give an adequate response, such terrorist attacks will multiply,” he said.

  At the same time, many war observers are wondering, is this the start of Zelensky’s declared intent to take back Crimea? 

  The moment of the explosion on the Crimean Bridge was caught on surveillance cameras. pic.twitter.com/7PgyXC9cSq

  — Clash Report (@clashreport) October 8, 2022

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  By all appearances, Putin is preparing for greater escalation in the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and after weeks of reports and indicators that Russian lines are being rapidly pushed back in the east and south amid the major Ukraine counteroffensive. On Saturday a new overall commander for Russian forces in Ukraine has been announced. “Russia has appointed a notorious general who opened fire on pro-democracy protesters in the 1990s as its first overall commander for the war in Ukraine, as the Kremlin struggles to halt a Ukrainian counteroffensive that has left its forces in disarray,” The Guardian writes.

  “The appointment of Gen Sergei Surovikin came on the same day as Vladimir Putin was dealt a humiliating blow after an explosion on the Kerch bridge sank a section of the motorway into the Kerch Strait and caused a major fire on the railway,” the publication confirmed. “Surovikin is a veteran commander who led the Russian military expedition in Syria in 2017, where he was accused of using ‘controversial’ tactics including indiscriminate bombing against anti-government fighters.”

  An appropriate moment to recall the warning last month in NYT “that the most dangerous moments are yet to come,” given that Russia, by only making “limited attempts to destroy infrastructure” so far, “has avoided escalating the war” in ways that have “baffled Western officials.” pic.twitter.com/SOp2INmh9g

  — Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) October 8, 2022

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  * * *

  Russian authorities said that an explosion involving a truck on Saturday caused a fire and destroyed a section of a bridge linking Russia and Crimea. The bridge is regarded as a key supply route for Russian troops in southern Ukraine.

  

  The Crimean Bridge – also called Kerch Strait Bridge or Kerch Bridge – is a structure 19 kilometers (12 miles) in length that passes across the Kerch Strait and links southern Russia to the Crimean Peninsula. The Kerch Strait links the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

  The Epoch Times’ Mimi Nguyen reports that a truck exploded on the bridge around 6 a.m. local time. Russia’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee announced that the explosion caused a fire on the parallel rail section, where seven railway cars carrying fuel caught fire. The blast also caused a “partial collapse of two sections of the bridge.”

  (17)#CrimeanBridge#Ukraine #Crimea #Крым pic.twitter.com/IIsCbFZGIc

  — Pierre Davide Borrelli (@PierreDBorrelli) October 8, 2022

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  A spokesperson from the Russian Highways State Company (Avtodor) told the TASS news agency that the movement of vehicles across the Crimean Bridge has been temporarily suspended, adding at the time that “personnel of the Russian emergencies ministry and the road service are working on the site to contain the blaze.” The fire has since been extinguished.

  Russian President Vladimir Putin was informed about the explosion and he ordered the creation of a government panel to deal with the emergency.

  While the bridge undergoes repair, a ferry service will be provided later on Saturday. Crimea’s Head Sergey Aksyonov said on Telegram, per TASS: “A ferry service is ready to be launched, it will start operating later today. We will announce a timetable later.”

  (19)#CrimeanBridge#Ukraine #Crimea #Крым pic.twitter.com/PL7Io6wnET

  — Pierre Davide Borrelli (@PierreDBorrelli) October 8, 2022

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  The Crimean Peninsula is key to sustaining Russia’s military operations in the south. If the bridge is made inoperable, it would make it significantly more challenging to ferry supplies to the peninsula. While Russia seized the areas north of Crimea early during the invasion and built a land corridor to it along the Sea of Azov, Ukraine is pressing a counteroffensive to reclaim them.

  The explosion on the Crimean Bridge took place hours after multiple explosions early Saturday hit the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, which triggered a series of secondary explosions. The city’s mayor, Ihor Terekhov, said that the series of explosions were due to missile strikes aimed at the center of the city, which caused fires at one of Kharkiv’s medical institutions, as well as a nonresidential building. No reports of casualties were noted.

  

  Bridge Explosion Is the ‘Beginning’: Ukraine Official

  While no one has yet to explicitly claim public responsibility for the attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s aide, Mikhail Podoliak, posted on Twitter saying the explosion is “the beginning.”

  “Crimea, the bridge, the beginning. Everything illegal must be destroyed, everything stolen must be returned to Ukraine, everything occupied by Russia must be expelled,” he wrote in English.

  Podoliak previously in August threatened the bridge, telling The Guardian that the bridge is “an illegal construction and the main gateway to supply the Russian army in Crimea” and that “such objects should be destroyed.”

  Another big question

  Who leaked this surveillance videos so easily? pic.twitter.com/mryt3TzwiT

  — Russiаn Market (@runews) October 8, 2022

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  Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials have also previously stated that Ukraine will use force to retake Crimea.

  Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 after a vast majority of people in Crimea had voted in a referendum in March 2014 to reunite with Russia and secede from Ukraine. The vote took place after anti-Russia, pro-E.U. factions overthrew then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s government, which wasn’t against Russia, in an armed coup in February 2014.

  The referendum was condemned by the United States and the European Union, with the latter saying in a statement (pdf) that the poll was “illegal and illegitimate.” Both the United States and the E.U. issued sanctions in response to the vote.

  The Crimean Bridge, a $3.69 billion (230 billion rubles) project, was constructed following the annexation of Crimea. Russia opened the first part of the span to car traffic in May 2018. The parallel bridge for rail traffic opened the following year. Before the bridge’s existence, the Crimean Peninsula could only be reached from Russia by sea or air.

  

  It was Russia’s only land link to the peninsula until Russian forces later seized more Ukrainian territory on the northern end of the Sea of Azov in heavy fighting, particularly around the city of Mariupol, earlier in 2022.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 14:35

• In Latest Recession Signal, Money-Supply Growth Plummeted To Three-Year Low In August
  In Latest Recession Signal, Money-Supply Growth Plummeted To Three-Year Low In August

  Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

  Money supply growth fell again in August, dropping to a 36-month low. August’s drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years. During the thirteen months between April 2020 and April 2021, money supply growth in the United States often climbed above 35 percent year over year, well above even the “high” levels experienced from 2009 to 2013. 

  

  During August 2022, year-over-year (YOY) growth in the money supply was at 4.35 percent. That’s down from July’s rate of 4.84 percent, and down from August 2021’s rate of 8.28 percent. The growth rate peaked in February 2021 at 23.12 percent.

  The growth rates during most of 2020, and through April 2021, were much higher than anything we’d seen during previous cycles, with the 1970s being the only period that came close. Since then, however, we have seen a fast fall from previous highs and such rapid declines generally point to economic contraction in following months. 

  

  The money supply metric used here—the “true” or Rothbard-Salerno money supply measure (TMS)—is the metric developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno, and is designed to provide a better measure of money supply fluctuations than M2. The Mises Institute now offers regular updates on this metric and its growth. This measure of the money supply differs from M2 in that it includes Treasury deposits at the Fed (and excludes short-time deposits and retail money funds).

  In recent months, M2 growth rates have followed a similar course to TMS growth rates. In August 2022, the M2 growth rate was 4.077 percent. That’s down from July’s growth rate of 5.25 percent. August’s rate was also well down from August 2021’s rate of 13.42 percent. M2 growth peaked at a new record of 26.91 percent during February 2021.

  Money supply growth can often be a helpful measure of economic activity, and an indicator of coming recessions. During periods of economic boom, money supply tends to grow quickly as commercial banks make more loans. Recessions, on the other hand, tend to be preceded by slowing rates of money supply growth. However, money supply growth tends to begin growing again before the onset of recession. 

  Another indicator of recession appears in the form of the gap between M2 and TMS. The TMS growth rate typically climbs and becomes larger than the M2 growth rate in the early months of a recession. This occurred in the early months of the 2001 and the 2007–09 recession. A similar pattern appeared before the 2020 recession. 

  Notably, this has happened again beginning in May this year as the M2 growth rate in fell below the TMS growth rate for the first time since 2020. Put another way, when the difference between M2 and TMS moves from a positive number to a negative number, that’s a fairly reliable indicator the economy has entered into recession. We can see this in this graph: 

  

  In the two “false alarms” over the past 30 years, the M2-TMS gap reverted to positive territory fairly quickly. However, when this gap firmly enters negative territory, that is an indicator that the economy is already in recession. The gap has now been negative for 3 of the past 5 months. Interestingly, this indicator also appears to follow the pattern of yield curve inversion. For example, the 2s/10s yield inversion went negative in all the same periods where the M2-TMS gap pointed to a recession. Moreover, the 2s/10s inversion was very briefly negative in 1998, and then almost went negative in 2018. 

  

  This is not surprising because trends in money supply growth have long appeared to be connected to the shape of the yield curve. As Bob Murphy notes in his book Understanding Money Mechanics, a sustained decline in TMS growth often reflects spikes in short-term yields, which can fuel a flattening or inverting yield curve. Murphy writes:

  When the money supply grows at a high rate, we are in a “boom” period and the yield curve is “normal,” meaning the yield on long bonds is much higher than on short bonds. But when the banking system contracts and money supply growth decelerates, then the yield curve flattens or even inverts. It is not surprising that when the banks “slam on the brakes” with money creation, the economy soon goes into recession.

  In other words, a sizable drop in the TMS growth levels often precedes an inversion in the yield curve, which itself points to an impending recession. Strong recession signals can be found elsewhere, as well. GDP growth turned negative in both the first and second quarter of this year, and two consecutive quarters of negative growth virtually always indicate recession. Average national home price growth in the US has recently turned negative for the first time in a decade. Real weekly earnings have gone negative for the past 17 months in a row. Consumer debt is surging as consumers borrow more money to make ends meet in this inflationary environment. 

  In other words, numerous other indicators point to just what we would expect: economic weakness and recession following a drop in money supply growth. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 14:25

• Musk Proposes Taiwan Become Chinese "Special Administrative Zone"
  Musk Proposes Taiwan Become Chinese “Special Administrative Zone”

  Not content kicking one hornet’s nest, Elon Musk just suggested to the Financial Times that tensions between China and Taiwan could be resolved by handing over some some control to Beijing – which would consider the island of 23 million people a “special administrative zone” similar to Hong Kong.

  

  “My recommendation… would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won’t make everyone happy,” Musk said while responding to a question about China, where his company Tesla operates a super factory in Shanghai.

  Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province of China that they will eventually reclaim, either through diplomacy or by force. China has offered Taiwan a “one  country, two systems” model of semi-autonomy similar to Hong Kong, which has been rejected by mainstream Taiwanese political parties.

  “And it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that [Taiwan] could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong,” Musk continued.

  Beijing imposed a tough National Security Law on Taiwan in 2020.

  In response, a senior lawmaker for Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, Wang Ting-Tu, hit out on Facebook- writing: “Individual independent companies cannot take their ownership as a joke. So why should they casually pass off the democratic freedoms, sovereignty and way of life of 23 million Taiwanese?”

  “Musk needs to find a clear-headed political adviser,” according to one senior Taiwanese official in a statement to Reuters. “The world has seen clearly what happened to Hong Kong… their economic and social vibrancy abruptly ended under Beijing’s totalitarian rule.”

  Beijing was mum on Musk’s statement – with the Chinese foreign ministry saying that Taiwan was a “domestic affair” (aka ‘mind your own business’).

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 13:50

• North Korea Fires Unspecified Ballistic Missile
  North Korea Fires Unspecified Ballistic Missile

  South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said North Korea fired an “unspecified ballistic missile” toward the East Sea early Sunday, according to Yonhap News. 

  *NORTH KOREA FIRES BALLISTIC MISSILE TOWARD EAST SEA: YONHAP
  *N. KOREA MISSILE HAS LIKELY ALREADY FALLEN: JAPAN COAST GUARD

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 8, 2022

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  This launch follows a joint naval exercise between Seoul and Washington. Ahead of the launch, North Korea warned the redeployment of the US aircraft carrier near the Korean Peninsula would spark regional security issues. 

  Japan, U.S. conduct joint drill involving aircraft carrier https://t.co/K8uhNcAmHq pic.twitter.com/L80EkKu8vG

  — Reuters (@Reuters) October 8, 2022

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  Little details are known about the ballistic missile firing, but this is at least the tenth ballistic missile launched (Bloomberg’s Sangmi Cha has the count around 10) in two weeks.

  

  Japan’s Coast Guard said the missile had already fallen into the water. 

  [Emergency alert]
  North Korea has launched a suspected ballistic missile. More updates to follow.

  — PM’s Office of Japan (@JPN_PMO) October 8, 2022

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  *Developing 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 13:24

• Florida Surgeon General Recommends Against mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines For Males Aged 18–39
  Florida Surgeon General Recommends Against mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines For Males Aged 18–39

  Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

  Florida’s Surgeon General, Dr. Joseph A. Ladapo, announced new guidance on messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines on Friday, specifically recommending against mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for males aged 18 to 39.

  

  Messenger RNA is the technology utilized by both the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines, the most administered vaccines in the United States and a number of other countries.

  The new guidance came after the Florida Department of Health carried out an analysis to evaluate vaccine safety, the department said in a bulletin on Friday.

  The statewide analysis of vaccinated Florida residents aged 18 years or older (pdf) found an 84 percent increase in the relative incidence of cardiac-related deaths among males aged 18–39, within 28 days of mRNA vaccination.

  “Non-mRNA vaccines were not found to have these increased risks,” the Florida Department of Health noted.

  Given the high level of global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination with mRNA vaccines “is likely outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac-related death among men in this age group,” the department said.

  “As such, the State Surgeon General recommends against males aged 18 to 39 from receiving mRNA COVID-19 vaccines,” it said. “Those with preexisting cardiac conditions, such as myocarditis and pericarditis, should take particular caution when making this decision.”

  “Far less attention has been paid to safety and the concerns of many individuals have been dismissed—these are important findings that should be communicated to Floridians,” Ladapo said in a statement, referring to the analysis.

  In the new guidance (pdf), Florida’s health department said it also “continues to stand by” its guidance for pediatric COVID-19 vaccines it issued in March. That guidance (pdf) recommends against COVID-19 vaccination for healthy children and adolescents aged 5–17. It now also recommends against COVID-19 vaccination among infants and children under five years old.

  Today, we released an analysis on COVID-19 mRNA vaccines the public needs to be aware of. This analysis showed an increased risk of cardiac-related death among men 18-39. FL will not be silent on the truth.

  Guidance: https://t.co/DcWZLoMU5E
  Press Release: https://t.co/Y0r9yepi7F

  — Joseph A. Ladapo, MD, PhD (@FLSurgeonGen) October 7, 2022

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  Statewide Analysis

  The analysis from the Florida Health Department that informed Ladapo’s latest recommendation had sought to “evaluate the risks of all-cause and cardiac-related mortality following COVID-19 vaccination.”

  Residents in Florida aged 18 years or older who died within 25 weeks of having received a COVID-19 vaccine, since the start of the vaccination roll-out in the state—Dec. 15, 2020—were included. The study end date was June 1, 2022.

  People were excluded from the study if they had a documented COVID-19 infection, had a COVID-19 associated death, had received a COVID-19 vaccine booster, or had received their last COVID-19 vaccine after Dec. 8 2021. The last criterion was put in place to make sure that each person was followed up after 25 weeks.

  The study found that COVID-19 vaccination “was not associated with an elevated risk for all-cause mortality,” but “was associated with a modestly increased risk for cardiac-related mortality 28 days following vaccination.”

  “Results from the stratified analysis for cardiac-related death following vaccination suggests mRNA vaccination may be driving the increased risk in males, especially among males aged 18–39,” according to the analysis.

  It also noted that the risk for both all-cause and cardiac-related deaths was “substantially higher 28 days following COVID-19 infection.”

  As such, the study concluded that people should weigh the risk associated with mRNA vaccination with the risk associated with COVID-19 infection.

  The analysis was a self-controlled case series (SCCS), which is a study design originally developed to evaluate vaccine safety, the department stated. The SCCS method uses individuals as their own control, such that comparisons are made within individuals.

  The U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines for emergency use in 2020 marked the first time it did so for vaccines that use mRNA technology.

  According to the FDA, the mRNA vaccine contains a small piece of the SARS-CoV-2 virus’s mRNA that instructs cells in the body to make the distinctive spike protein of the virus. When a person receives the vaccine, their body produces copies of the spike protein which “does not cause disease, but triggers the immune system to learn to react defensively, producing an immune response” against the virus, according to the agency.

  The mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and from Moderna have both been linked with heart inflammation, including myocarditis and pericarditis, data from around the world have suggested. Younger populations, especially young men, have been observed to experience these conditions at much higher than expected rates, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) previously suggested. A small number of deaths from heart inflammation after COVID-19 vaccine have also been reported.

  The primary regimens of the vaccines, which are two doses administrated several weeks apart, were insufficient to protect against infection and showed waning efficacy in protecting against hospitalization amid newly-emerging variants. This prompted the governments of many countries to recommend boosters and subsequent boosters throughout the COVID-19 pandemic.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/08/2022 – 13:15

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• US Intelligence Warning: China Escalating Influence Operations
  US Intelligence Warning: China Escalating Influence Operations

  Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

  China is doubling down on its efforts to influence state and local government leaders in the United States by exploiting the existing web of regional and local US-China relations, the U.S. National Counterintelligence and Security Center (NCSC) warned in July.

   

  “Some of the goals of PRC [People’s Republic of China] influence operations in the United States are to expand support for PRC interests among state and local leaders and to use these relationships to pressure Washington for policies friendlier to Beijing. The PRC understands U.S. state and local leaders enjoy a degree of independence from Washington and may seek to use them as proxies to advocate for national U.S. policies Beijing desires, including improved U.S. economic cooperation with China, and reduced U.S. criticism of China’s policies towards Taiwan, Tibetans, Uyghurs, pro-democracy activists, and others.

  “The PRC and CCP [Chinese Communist Party] continue to seek to influence Washington directly… Yet the PRC has also stepped up its efforts to cultivate U.S. state and local leaders in a strategy some have described as ‘using the local to surround the central.’ For the PRC and CCP, targeting state and local entities can be an effective way to pursue agendas that might be more challenging at the national level.”

  The US intelligence officials warned US state and local leaders that Chinese influence operations “can be deceptive and coercive, with seemingly benign business opportunities or people-to-people exchanges sometimes masking PRC political agendas.”

  The NCSC document also stated:

  “Financial incentives may be used to hook U.S. state and local leaders, given their focus on local economic issues. In some cases, the PRC or its proxies may press state and local leaders to take actions that align with their local needs, but also advance PRC agendas, sometimes over national U.S. interests.”

  There is nothing inherently new in the National Counterintelligence and Security Center’s July warning; PRC operatives have been working in this way for years, if not decades. One of the organizations that the US intelligence memo explicitly warns against is the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries (CPAFFC), which describes itself as a “national people’s organization engaged in people-to-people diplomacy of the People’s Republic of China.”

  

  In reality, the organization is actually a front for the foreign influence efforts of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). It has been operating successfully in the US for decades, especially by forging numerous sister-city relationships with US cities to influence local US political, business, media and educational leaders. There are more than 200 sister city pairs and 50 sister state/province partnerships between the US and China, and such partnerships, according to US intelligence, can also include business, technical, cultural and educational exchanges between US and Chinese communities.

  According to “China’s Influence & American Interests,” a 2018 report by the Working Group on Chinese Influence Activities in the United States, published by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and the Center on US-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York:

  “After forty years of engagement, the US-China focused foundations, educational and exchange programs, research institutes, and arts and entertainment initiatives throughout the country are too many and various to be cataloged…

  “While American local governments value such ‘exchanges’ for financial and cultural reasons, ‘exchange’ (交流) has always been viewed as a practical political tool by Beijing, and all of China’s ‘exchange’ organizations have been assigned political missions.”

  CPAFFC has been instrumental in sponsoring conferences connecting Chinese officials and others with US governors, mayors, and state and local legislators, according to US intelligence. Since 2011, for instance, CPAFFC was a sponsor of the China-U.S. Governors Forum. In 2019, this forum, which took place in Kentucky, was “billed as an ‘exclusive deal making opportunity’ for investors, industry, and government leaders of both nations.”

  It was also a place where China’s ambassador to the United States sought to influence the assembled governors, mayors and other local leaders to follow China’s policies. According to the NCSC document:

  “In 2019, the PRC’s U.S. Ambassador expressed concerns over Washington’s trade policies towards China at the CPAFFC-sponsored China-US. Governors Forum and urged U.S. Governors “to pay serious attention to this, and not let some ill-informed, ill-intentioned people incite a ‘new Cold War’ at the expense of the people’s interests.”

  In 2020, however, the Trump administration withdrew the US from the China-U.S. Governors Forum. The administration said that since the US had signed the agreement, the CPAFFC had “sought to directly and malignly influence” US state and local leaders to promote China’s global agenda and thereby “undermined the Governors Forum’s original well-intentioned purpose.”

  The NCSC document continues:

  “Individual U.S. localities may be unaware that their partnerships with cities and states in China are centrally coordinated and managed in China by CPAFFC [the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries] which… is closely tied to the CCP’s political influence bureaucracy. The PRC’s centralized control over such partnerships underscores the need for U.S. state and local officials to understand the roles and intentions of all those participating on the Chinese side.”

  US intelligence is also worried that China could create dependencies to gain influence:

  “The PRC or its proxies may use financial rewards and punishments, such as promising or withdrawing access to Chinese markets, to cultivate and leverage business and government leaders at the U.S. state and local level.

  “Rewards may take the form of investments in U.S. communities or business deals that promise ‘win-win’ or ‘mutually beneficial’ development. Paid trips to China for U.S. state and local leaders or PRC delegation visits to U.S. localities may also serve as enticements.”

  Furthermore, US intelligence warned, Chinese “rewards” always come at a price, for instance by requiring the support of policies that would benefit China. “In 2019, a U.S. Governor received a letter from a PRC Consulate threatening to cancel a Chinese investment in the Governor’s state if the Governor chose to travel to Taiwan,” the NCSC wrote.

  Additionally, China uses the same tactics when it comes to US business leaders:

  “In 2021, the PRC Embassy in Washington sent letters to select U.S. business leaders urging them to lobby the U.S. Congress to reject bills the PRC opposed, including bills designed to increase U.S. competitiveness vis-à-vis China: ‘[W]e sincerely hope you will play a positive role in urging members of the Congress to abandon the zero-sum mindset and ideological prejudice, stop touting negative China-related bills, delete negative provisions, as to create favorable conditions for bilateral economic and trade cooperation, before it’s too late…’

  “In 2021, a senior PRC official instructed U.S. business leaders with interests in China to ‘speak up and speak out, and push the US government to pursue a rational and pragmatic policy towards China, stop conducting wars in trade, industry, and technology…’ The PRC official added, ‘[T]he business community cannot make a fortune in silence.'”

  While it is commendable that a US intelligence agency sets out to warn US local and state leaders against the CCP’s malign influence, the warning, arriving as it does after so many decades of Chinese influence operations in the US, comes across, unfortunately, as too little, too late. The U.S. National Counterintelligence and Security Center appears a little too hopeful when it assumes that Americans involved in all those exchanges are suddenly going to change their minds and begin to divest from the different Chinese ventures that they are involved in, especially as so much might be gained from staying ignorant.

  According to Clive Hamilton and Mareike Ohlberg, in their recently book, Hidden Hand: Exposing How the Chinese Communist Party is Reshaping the World:

  “Local politicians typically know little about China and have no responsibility for national security, and because their Chinese interlocutors present themselves as offering people-to-people exchanges and ‘opportunities for local business’, these politicians have a strong incentive to remain uninformed…

  “The focus is typically on economic and cultural ties and it’s easy to pretend that there is no political element… however, these local ties are in fact highly political, and where necessary they can be leveraged to pressure national governments. This is the tactic of ‘use the countryside to surround the city'”.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 23:40

• Is Democracy In Decline?
  Is Democracy In Decline?

  While it’s true that globally, the citizens of the world enjoy more democratic freedoms than in the past, Statista’s Anna Fleck notes that several indicators seem to suggest that this progress is now under threat. So: is the world becoming less democratic?

  One way to approach this question is to look at the evolution of both democratic societies and autocratic regimes around the world.

  In Statista’s chart below, they have drawn from the classification and evaluation of political regimes shown by Our World in Data (Lührmann et al. (2018), V-Dem). Here, democracies have been subdivided into two categories, “electoral” and “liberal”. Liberal democracies hold not only free elections but also have equitable laws and processes.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Using this data, we can see that democracy has indeed been on the decline in recent years. After an all-time high in 2016, when there were 97 democracies worldwide (both in terms of liberal and electoral), this figure fell to 89 in 2021.

  The number of people living in democracies has plummeted from 3.9 billion in 2017 to 2.3 billion in 2021. Today, it is estimated that around 70 percent of the world’s population lives under autocratic rule.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 23:20

• Chris Hedges: 'The Greatest Evil Is War'
  Chris Hedges: ‘The Greatest Evil Is War’

  Authored by Chris Hedges via ConsortiumNews.com,

  Tomas was crippled for a war that should never have been fought. He was crippled for the lies of politicians. He was crippled for war profiteers. He was crippled for the careers of generals.

  Excerpts from the author’s new book, The Greatest Evil is War.

  

  I flew to Kansas City [in 2013] to see Tomas Young. Tomas was paralyzed in Iraq in 2004. He was receiving hospice care at his home. I knew him by reputation and the movie documentary Body of War. He was one of the first veterans to publicly oppose the war in Iraq. He fought as long and as hard as he could against the war that crippled him, until his physical deterioration caught up with him.

  “I had been toying with the idea of suicide for a long time because I had become helpless,” he told me in his small house on the Kansas City outskirts where he intended to die.

  “I couldn’t dress myself. People have to help me with the most rudimentary of things. I decided I did not want to go through life like that anymore. The pain, the frustration.…”

  He stopped abruptly and called his wife. “Claudia, can I get some water?” She opened a bottle of water, took a swig so it would not spill when he sipped, and handed it to him.

  “I felt at the end of my rope,” the 33-year-old Army veteran went on. “I made the decision to go on hospice care, to stop feeding and fade away. This way, instead of committing the conventional suicide and I am out of the picture, people have a way to stop by or call and say their goodbyes. I felt this was a fairer way to treat people than to just go out with a note. After the anoxic brain injury in 2008 I lost a lot of dexterity and strength in my upper body. So, I wouldn’t be able to shoot myself or even open the pill bottle to give myself an overdose. The only way I could think of doing it was to have Claudia open the pill bottle for me, but I didn’t want her implicated.”

  

  Tomas Young visits Ground Zero. (Ellen Spiro / Mobilus Media, Wikimedia Commons)

  “After you made that decision, how did you feel?” I asked.

  “I felt relieved,” he answered. “I finally saw an end to this four-and-a-half-year fight. If I were in the same condition I was in during the filming of Body of War, in a manual chair, able to feed and dress myself and transfer from my bed to the wheelchair, you and I would not be having this discussion. I can’t even watch the movie anymore because it makes me sad to see how I was, compared to how I am.…Viewing the deterioration, I decided it was best to go out now rather than regress more.”

  Tomas was crippled for a war that should never have been fought. He was crippled for the lies of politicians. He was crippled for war profiteers. He was crippled for the careers of generals. He bore all this upon his body. And there are hundreds of thousands of other broken bodies like his in Baghdad, Kandahar, Peshawar, the Walter Reed medical center, and hospitals in Russia and Ukraine. Mangled bodies and corpses, broken dreams, unending grief, betrayal, corporate profit, these are the true products of war. Tomas Young was the face of war they do not want you to see.

  

  Sgt. John Hoxie, watches 82nd Airborne Division’s All American Week celebration May 18, 2009. Hoxie returned to Fort Bragg for the first time since he was injured during a 2007 deployment to Iraq. (The U.S. Army/Flickr)

  On April 4, 2004, Tomas was crammed into the back of a two-and-a-half-ton Army truck with 20 other soldiers in Sadr City, Iraq. Insurgents opened fire on the truck from above. “It was like shooting ducks in a barrel,” he said. A bullet from an AK-47 severed his spinal column. A second bullet shattered his knee. At first, he did not know he had been shot. He felt woozy. He tried to pick up his M16. He couldn’t lift his rifle from the truck bed. That was when he knew something was terribly wrong.

  “I tried to say, ‘I’m going to be paralyzed, someone shoot me right now,’ but there was only a hoarse whisper that came out because my lungs had collapsed,” he said. “I knew the damage. I wanted to be taken out of my misery.”

  His squad leader, Staff Sgt. Robert Miltenberger, bent over and told him he would be all right. A few years later Young would see a clip of Miltenberger weeping as he recounted the story of how he had lied to Young.

  “I tried to contact him,” said Tomas, whose long red hair and flowing beard make him look like a biblical prophet. “I can’t find him. I want to tell him it is OK.”

  Tomas had been in Iraq five days. It was his first deployment. After being wounded, he was sent to an Army hospital in Kuwait, and although his legs, now useless, lay straight in front of him he felt as if he was still sitting cross-legged on the floor of the truck. That sensation lasted for about three weeks. It was an odd and painful initiation into his life as a paraplegic. His body, from then on, would play tricks on him. He was transferred from Kuwait to the U.S. military hospital at Landstuhl, Germany, and then to Walter Reed in Washington, D.C.

  He asked if he could meet Ralph Nader. Nader visited him in the hospital with Phil Donahue. Donahue, who had been fired by MSNBC a year earlier for speaking out against the war, would go on, with Ellen Spiro, to make the 2007 film Body of War, an account of Tomas’s daily struggle with his physical and emotional scars.

  

  Ellen Spiro, co-director and co-producer of Body of War, in 2016. (Jessica Jin, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)

  In the documentary, he suffers dizzy spells that force him to lower his head into his hands. He wears frozen gel inserts in a cooling jacket because he cannot control his body temperature. He struggles to find a solution to his erectile dysfunction. He downs fistfuls of medications — carbamazepine, for nerve pain; coumadin, a blood thinner; tizanidine, an anti-spasm medication; gabapentin, another nerve pain medication; bupropion, an antidepressant; omeprazole, for morning nausea; and morphine. His mother must insert a catheter into his penis. He joins Cindy Sheehan, whose son was killed in Iraq, at Camp Casey in Crawford, Texas, to protest with Iraq Veterans Against the War. His first wife leaves him.

  “You know, you see a guy who’s paralyzed, and in a wheelchair, and you think he’s just in a wheelchair,” he says in Body of War. “You don’t think about the, you know, the stuff inside that’s paralyzed. I can’t cough because my stomach muscles are paralyzed, so I can’t work up the full coughing energy. I’m more susceptible to urinary tract infections, and there’s a great big erection sidebar to this whole story.”

  

  Phil Donahue introducing the documentary Body of War at the Toronto International Film Festival, 2007. (jbach, Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0, Wikimedia Commons)

  In early March 2008 a blood clot in his right arm — the arm that bears a color tattoo of a character from Maurice Sendak’s Where the Wild Things Are — caused his arm to swell. He was taken to the Kansas City Veterans Affairs hospital, where he was given the blood thinner coumadin before being released. One month later, the VA took him off coumadin, and soon afterward the clot migrated to one of his lungs. He suffered a massive pulmonary embolism and fell into a coma. When he awoke from the coma in the hospital he could barely speak. He had lost most of his upper-body mobility and short-term memory, and his speech was slurred.

  It was then that he began to experience debilitating pain in his abdomen. The hospital would not give him narcotics because the drugs would slow digestion, making it harder for the bowels to function. Tomas could digest only soup and Jell-O. In November, in a desperate bid to halt the pain, he had his colon removed. He was fitted with a colostomy bag. The pain disappeared for a few days and then came roaring back. He could not hold down food, even pureed food, because his stomach opening had shrunk. The doctors dilated his stomach. He could eat only soup and oatmeal. Three weeks earlier his stomach stretched. That was enough.

  “I will go off the feeding tube,” he said, “after me and my wife’s anniversary,” April 20, the date on which he married Claudia in 2012. “I was married once before. It didn’t end well. It was a non-amicable divorce. At first, I thought I would wait for my brother and his wife, my niece, and my grandparents to visit me, but the one thing I will miss most in my life is my wife. I want to spend a little more time with her. I want to spend a full year with someone without the problems that plagued my previous marriage. I don’t know how long it will take when I stop eating. If it takes too long, I may take steps to quicken my departure. I have saved a bottle of liquid morphine. I can down that at one time with all my sleeping medication.”

  Tomas’s room was painted a midnight blue and had a large cutout of Batman on one wall. He loved the superhero as a child, because “he was a regular person who had a horrible thing happen to him and wanted to save society.”

  Tomas joined the Army immediately after 9/11 to go to Afghanistan and hunt down the people behind the attacks. He did not oppose the Afghanistan war. “In fact, if I had been injured in Afghanistan, there would be no Body of War movie to begin with,” he said. But he never understood the call to invade Iraq. “When the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, we didn’t invade China just because they looked the same,” he said.

  He became increasingly depressed about his impending deployment to Iraq when he was in basic training at Fort Benning, Georgia. He asked the battalion doctor for antidepressants. The doctor said he had to meet first with the unit’s chaplain, who told him, “I think you will be happier when you get over to Iraq and start killing Iraqis.”

  “I was dumbstruck by his response,” Tomas said.

  

  U.S. Army recruits undergoing basic training at Fort Benning, Georgia., May 4, 2012. (DoD Photo by Glenn Fawcett)

  He had not decided what would be done with his ashes. He flirted with the idea of having them plowed into ground where marijuana would be planted but then wondered if anyone would want to smoke the crop. He knows there will be no clergy at the memorial service held after his death. “It will just be people reminiscing over my life,” he said.

  “I spend a lot of time sitting here in my bedroom, watching TV or sleeping,” he said. “I have found — I don’t know if it is the result of my decision or not — it is equally hard to be alone or to be around people. This includes my wife. I am rarely happy. Maybe it is because when I am alone all I have with me are my thoughts, and my mind is a very hazardous place to go. When I am around people I feel as if I have to put on a façade of being the happy little soldier.”

  He listened, when he was well enough, to audiobooks with Claudia. Among them have been Al Franken’s satirical book Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them and Michael Moore’s The Official Fahrenheit 9/11 Reader. He was a voracious reader but can no longer turn the pages of a book. He found some solace in the French film The Untouchables, about a paraplegic and his caregiver, and The Sessions, a film based on an essay by the paralyzed poet Mark O’Brien.

  Tomas, when he was in a wheelchair, found that many people behaved as if he was mentally disabled, or not even there. When he was being fitted for a tuxedo for a friend’s wedding the salesman turned to his mother and asked her in front of him whether he could wear the company’s shoes.

  “I look at the TV through the lens of his eyes and can see he is invisible,” said Claudia, standing in the living room as her husband rested in the bedroom. An array of books on death, the afterlife, and dying is spread out around her. “No one is sick on television. No one is disabled. No one faces death. Dying in America is a very lonely business.”

  “If I had known then what I know now,” Tomas said, “I would not have gone into the military. But I was twenty-two, working various menial jobs, waiting tables, working in the copy department of an OfficeMax. My life was going nowhere. September 11 happened. I saw us being attacked. I wanted to respond. I signed up two days later. I wanted to be a combat journalist. I thought the military would help me out of my financial rut. I thought I could use the GI Bill to go to school.”

  Tomas was not the first young man to be lured into war and then callously discarded. His story has been told many times. It is the story of Hector in The Iliad. It is the story of Joe Bonham, the protagonist in Dalton Trumbo’s 1939 novel Johnny Got His Gun, whose arms, legs, and face are blown away by an artillery shell, leaving him trapped in the inert remains of his body.

  Bonham ruminates in the novel:

  “He was the future he was a perfect picture of the future and they were afraid to let anyone see what the future was like. Already they were looking ahead they were figuring the future and somewhere in the future they saw war. To fight that war they would need men and if men saw the future they wouldn’t fight. So they were masking the future they were keeping the future a soft quiet deadly secret. They knew that if all the little people all the little guys saw the future they would begin to ask questions. They would ask questions and they would find answers and they would say to the guys who wanted them to fight they would say you lying thieving sons-of-bitches we won’t fight we won’t be dead we will live we are the world we are the future and we will not let you butcher us no matter what you say no matter what speeches you make no matter what slogans you write.”

  

  For Tomas, the war, the wound, the paralysis, the wheelchair, the anti-war demonstrations, the wife who left him and the one who didn’t, the embolism, the loss of motor control, the slurred speech, the colostomy, the IV line for narcotics implanted in his chest, the open bedsores that expose his bones, the despair — the crushing despair — the decision to die, came down to a girl. Aleksus, his only niece. She would not remember her uncle. But he lay in his dimly lit room, painkillers flowing into his broken body, and thought of her. He did not know exactly when he would die. But it had to be before her second birthday, in June. He did not want to mar that day with his death.

  He asked me to help him write a last letter to George W. Bush and the politicians and generals who sent him to war. It was March 2013, on the 10th anniversary of the start of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. He could not hold a pen. I took dictation.  He planned to kill himself by cutting off his feeding tube. After issuing the letter, which was widely circulated and translated into several languages, Tomas changed his mind about committing suicide. He decided he wanted more time with his wife, Claudia. But he and Claudia knew he did not have long. The couple moved from Kansas City to Portland, Oregon, and then to Seattle, where Tomas died on November 10, 2014, at the age of thirty-four.

  

  Tomas Young and brother. (Ellen Spiro, Wikimedia Commons)

  Over the last eight months of Tomas’s life, Veterans Affairs reduced his pain medication, charging he had become an addict. It was a decision that thrust him into a wilderness of agony. Tomas’s existence became a constant battle with the VA. He suffered excruciating “breakthrough pain.” The VA was indifferent. It cut his thirty-day supply of pain medication to seven days. Tomas, when the pills did not arrive on time, might as well have been nailed to a cross. Claudia, in an exchange of several emails with me since Thomas’s death, remembered hearing her husband on the phone one day pleading with a VA doctor and finally saying: “So you mean to tell me it is better for me to live in pain than die on pain medicine in this disabled state?” At night, she said, he would moan and cry out.

  “It was a battle of wills,” Claudia told me in an email. “We were losing. Our whole time in Portland was spent dealing with trying to get what we needed to be at home and comfortable and pain free. THAT’S ALL WE WANTED, TO BE HOME AND PAIN FREE, to enjoy whatever time we had left.”

  They left Portland for Seattle to be closer to a good spinal cord injury unit. Also, Washington was one of the states that had legalized marijuana, which Tomas used extensively.

  “Last week I called because his breakthrough pain started happening throughout the day,” Claudia wrote in an email. “I was using more and more of the morphine and Lorazepam. I was running out of pills. He had a high tolerance for pain, but it was getting bad. I called to report to the doctor that it was getting bad fast. I would not have enough pills to bridge him to the appointment on the 24th. The doctor was unsympathetic. He gave me a condescending lecture about strict narcotics regulations. I said, ‘but my husband is in pain what do I do?’”

  Tomas tried to take enough sleeping pills to sleep away the pain. But he was able to rest for a prolonged period only every few days. The pain and exhaustion began to tear apart his frail body. He was dispirited. He was visibly weaker. He felt humiliated.

  “Maybe he got so exhausted by the enduring of it all that he took a last sleep and never came back,” Claudia wrote.

  “My conclusion is that he died in pain from the exhaustion of having to endure it. Early morning Monday, when I thought he was sleeping, I heard a silence I had never heard before. I couldn’t hear him breathing. I was scared, but I knew. The first thing I did was liberate him from all the tubes and bags on his body. I cut off the feeding tube. I took off the Ostomy Bags. I removed the Foley Catheter. I cleaned his body. I played music. We smoked a last joint together. I smoked for him. I started making calls.”

  “The funeral home instructed me to call the police,” she wrote. “They arrived and concluded that there were no issues, but because of his young age they had to refer this to the Medical Examiner. The Medical Examiner came. He made the determination that due to his age that they would have to perform an autopsy. I said, ‘Hey look at his body don’t you think he has been mutilated enough? Are you going to desecrate his body even further?’ So, he was cut open some more.”

  The VA called her to ask for the autopsy report.

  Tomas’s final days, Claudia said, were often “hopeless and humiliating.”

  

  President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, Dec. 27, 2001. (U.S. National Archives)

  This is his “Last Letter” to Bush and Cheney:

  “I write this letter on the 10th anniversary of the Iraq War on behalf of my fellow Iraq War veterans. I write this letter on behalf of the 4,488 soldiers and Marines who died in Iraq. I write this letter on behalf of the hundreds of thousands of veterans who have been wounded and on behalf of those whose wounds, physical and psychological, have destroyed their lives. I am one of those gravely wounded. I was paralyzed in an insurgent ambush in 2004 in Sadr City. My life is coming to an end. I am living under hospice care. I write this letter on behalf of husbands and wives who have lost spouses, on behalf  of children who have lost a parent, on behalf of the fathers and mothers who have lost sons and daughters and behalf of those who care for the many thousands of my fellow veterans who have brain injuries. I write this letter on behalf of those veterans whose trauma and self-revulsion for what they have witnessed, endured, and done in Iraq have led to suicide and on behalf of the active-duty soldiers and Marines who commit, on average, a suicide a day. I write this letter on behalf of the some 1 million Iraqi dead and on behalf of the countless Iraqi wounded. I write this letter on behalf of us all—the human detritus your war has left behind those who will spend their lives in unending pain and grief.

  You may evade justice but in our eyes you are each guilty of egregious war crimes, of plunder and, finally, of murder, including the murder of thousands of young Americans—-my fellow veterans—whose future you stole.

  I write this letter, my last letter, to you, Mr. Bush, and Mr. Cheney. I write not because I think you grasp the terrible human and moral consequences of your lies, manipulation and thirst for wealth and power. I write this letter because, before my own death, I want to make it clear that I, and hundreds of thousands of my fellow veterans, along with millions of my fellow citizens, along with hundreds of millions more in Iraq and the Middle East, know fully who you are and what you have done. You may evade justice but in our eyes you are each guilty of egregious war crimes, of plunder and, finally, of murder, including the murder of thousands of young Americans—my fellow veterans—whose future you stole.

  Your positions of authority, your millions of dollars of personal wealth, your public relations consultants, your privilege, and your power cannot mask the hollowness of your character. You sent us to fight and die in Iraq after you, Mr. Cheney, dodged the draft in Vietnam, and you, Mr. Bush, went AWOL from your National Guard unit. Your cowardice and selfishness were established decades ago. You were not willing to risk yourselves for our nation, but you sent hundreds of thousands of young men and women to be sacrificed in a senseless war with no more thought than it takes to put out the  garbage.

  I joined the Army two days after the 9/11 attacks. I joined the Army because our country had been attacked. I wanted to strike back at those who had killed some 3,000 of my fellow citizens. I did not join the Army to go to Iraq, a country that had no part in the September 2001 attacks and did not pose a threat to its neighbors, much less to the United States. I did not join the Army to “liberate” Iraqis or to shut down mythical weapons-of-   mass-destruction facilities or to implant what you cynically called “democracy” in Baghdad and the Middle East. I did not join the Army to rebuild Iraq, which at the time you told us could be paid for by Iraq’s oil revenues. Instead, this war has cost the United States over $3 trillion. I especially did not join the Army to carry out pre-emptive war. Pre-emptive war is illegal under international law. And as a soldier in Iraq, I was, I now know, abetting your idiocy and your crimes. The Iraq War is the largest strategic blunder in U.S. history. It obliterated the balance of power in the Middle East. It installed a corrupt and brutal pro-Iranian government in Baghdad, one cemented in power through the use of torture, death squads, and terror. And it has left Iran as the dominant force in the region. On every level—moral, strategic, military, and economic—Iraq was a failure. And it was you, Mr. Bush, and Mr. Cheney, who started this war. It is you who should pay the consequences.

  I would not be writing this letter if I had been wounded fighting in Afghanistan against those forces that carried out the attacks of 9/11. Had I been wounded there I would still be miserable because of my physical deterioration and imminent death, but I would at least have the comfort of knowing that my injuries were a consequence of my own decision to defend the country I love. I would not have to lie in my bed, my body filled with painkillers, my life ebbing away, and deal with the fact that hundreds of thousands of human beings, including children, including myself, were sacrificed by you for little more than the greed of oil companies, for your alliance with the oil sheiks in Saudi Arabia, and your insane visions of empire.

  I have, like many other disabled veterans, suffered from the inadequate and often inept care provided by the Veterans Administration. I have, like many other disabled veterans,  come to realize that our mental and physical wounds are of no interest to you, perhaps of no interest to any politician. We were used. We were betrayed. And we have been abandoned. You, Mr. Bush, make much pretense of being a Christian. But isn’t lying a sin? Isn’t murder a sin? Aren’t theft and selfish ambition sins? I am not a Christian. But I believe in the Christian ideal. I believe that what you do to the least of your brothers you finally do to yourself, to your own soul.

  My day of reckoning is upon me. Yours will come. I hope you will be put on trial. But mostly I hope, for your sakes, that you find the moral courage to face what you have done to me and to many, many others who deserved to live. I hope that before your time on earth ends, as mine is now ending, you will find the strength of character to stand before the American public and the world, and in particular the Iraqi people, and beg for forgiveness.”

  You can order The Greatest Evil is War here.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 23:00

• How Americans Rate Federal Agencies
  How Americans Rate Federal Agencies

  Gallup conducts a annual poll to find out which high-profile federal agencies and departments have the highest favorability scores with the U.S. public.

  As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, in the latest installment, only four out of the agencies included were rated positively by at least 50 percent of respondents.

  After being named the top-rated agency in 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021, the U.S. Postal Service once more came in at the top of the list as the most popular federal agency in 2022. Its rating rose to 60 percent from 57 percent in 2021, but came down from 74 percent in 2019. 13 percent rated the Postal Service as poor. No survey was carried out in 2020.

  The top four is rounded off by NASA, the CIA and the FBI. The latter two were among the few agencies whose ratings could improve significantly from 2021, up 11 percentage points and six percentage points, respectively. As with the Postal Service, the ratings are lower than they were in 2019, however.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  With 42 percent of people saying the agency was doing a good or excellent job, the Department of Homeland Security came fifth in 2022, ahead of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, whose rating dropped remarkably during the coronavirus pandemic – from 64 percent in 2019 to 41 percent in 2022. Yet, the CDC is not as loathed as some agencies Americans have long despised.

  Of the ones published by Gallup, tax collector the Internal Revenue Service comes last at 34 percent approval, below the Food and Drug Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency at 36 percent each.

  The Department of Justice comes in at 35 percent, but no comparable 2021 figure exists.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 22:40

• The Renewable Energy 'Paradox': A More Costly Way Forward
  The Renewable Energy ‘Paradox’: A More Costly Way Forward

  Authored by Nina Nguyen via The Epoch Times,

  A California-based leading eco-modernist has disputed the widespread claim that renewables are a cheap and clean energy source, arguing that it’s the opposite.

  

  Michael Shellenberger, founder of Environmental Progress, said one of the “most misleading ways that renewable salespeople sell their technology” is they claim the electricity produced by wind and solar is cheaper.  

  However, the paradox about renewable energy is when deployed at scale, they actually make electricity production more expensive, Shellenberger told CPAC Australia in Sydney on Oct. 1. 

  “There are basically two reasons,” he said, “It requires more machines, more backup power generators, more transmission systems, and more people to manage the chaos of an electrical grid with a large amount of unreliable weather-dependent energy.”  

  Shellenberger pointed to a prediction by German economist Leon Hirth that the economic value of wind and solar declines significantly as they take up a larger proportion of the electricity grid.  

  In a paper for Energy Policy in 2013, Hirth estimated that when wind turbine power generation comprises 30 percent of the grid, its value declines by 40 percent; while solar power’s value declines by 50 percent when it reaches 15 percent.  

  “The reason is easy to understand,” Shellenberger noted, “Solar and wind produce too much energy when you don’t need them and not enough energy when you do, and both of those impose costs on the electrical grid.”  

  

  Steam rises from cooling towers of the Neurath coal-fired power plant as wind turbines spin over a field of rapeseed on May 05, 2022 near Bedburg, Germany. (Photo by Andreas Rentz/Getty Images)

  He said the ideal situation was for the electricity supply to keep up with demand at “all times.”

  “Every time you take electricity off the grid and put it back on, you’re paying energy penalties, which increase the cost of that energy somewhere between 20 to 40 percent.”

  Shellenberger said this was the case whether it was using electricity to pump water uphill to operate hydroelectric dams or siphoning excess electricity supply into lithium batteries. He noted that it would cost the United States three-quarters of a trillion dollars to create enough storage to back up the entire country’s electricity grid for just four hours.  

  “We don’t need to backup the grid for four hours, we need to back it up if you’re relying on solar and wind for weeks or months because there are periods of time where there’s no sunlight, no wind, including often at night,” he said.  

  What About the Waste?  

  The comments from the environmentalist come as Western countries ramp up their efforts to decarbonise to move towards net zero by 2050, with renewables believed to be the solution as they produce neither greenhouse gases nor polluting emissions.

  But Shellenberger, author of “Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All” and “San Fransicko: Why Progressives Ruin Cities,” argued that renewables were more environmentally damaging than fossil fuels and nuclear energy. 

  

  A woman walks through the solar pannels of a photovoltaic power plant installed by Generale du Soleil (GDS) and operated by Energ’iV SEML in a former landfill of waste, on December 8, 2020 in Guignen, western France. (Photo by Loic Venance/AFP via Getty Images)

  Renewables produce 300 times more waste than nuclear plants do, while every solar panel removed from a rooftop was categorised as hazardous waste, the environmentalist noted.  

  “The problem is that renewables actually degrade the natural environment,” he said. 

  Shellenberger also said the push for more renewable power sources like wind and solar would result in Western countries moving “in the opposite direction towards a ‘higher material intensity’ society than we have under fossil fuels and nuclear.” 

  According to a report from the International Energy Agency, natural gas and coal only require a small fraction of mining to support their operations compared to what is needed for offshore wind and solar.  

  “We use about 10 percent of the materials in the world today for energy production, if we move towards 100 percent renewables that would rise to between 40 and 50 percent, and that’s going to be inflationary.” 

  He further said that “as a result of the war on natural gas, and this obsession with renewables, the world’s actually going to burn more coal in 2022 than it ever has before.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 22:20

• Boston Dynamics Pledges Not To Weaponize Robots While China Arms Robo-War Dogs With Machine Guns
  Boston Dynamics Pledges Not To Weaponize Robots While China Arms Robo-War Dogs With Machine Guns

  While several robotics companies, including Boston Dynamics, are pledging not to weaponize their robots and asked others in the industry to do the same, Chinese firms couldn’t care less and have created the most ridiculous drone that carries a robot war dog equipped with a machine gun. 

  Let’s start with an open letter obtained by Axios penned by Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, ANYbotics, Clearpath Robotics, Open Robotics, and Unitree Robotics. Here’s an important section of the letter: 

  “We believe that adding weapons to robots that are remotely or autonomously operated, widely available to the public, and capable of navigating to previously inaccessible locations where people live and work, raises new risks of harm and serious ethical issues.” 

  Boston Dynamics CEO Robert Playter told Axios in an email that he’s “concerned about recent increases in makeshift efforts by individuals attempting to weaponize commercially available robots.” 

  He added: “For this technology to be broadly accepted throughout society, the public needs to know they can trust it. And that means we need a policy that prohibits bad actors from misusing it.”

  But here’s the issue, America’s adversaries (read: “Dystopian Robot Dogs Now Sporting Guns And Russian Insignia”) don’t care about the open letter’s plea as they weaponize robots ahead of what could be a major conflict between world powers if a spillover in Ukraine materializes. 

  Footage of a Chinese drone carrying a ‘robo-dog’ equipped with a high-powered machine gun is something straight out of the Call of Duty: Modern Warfare video game. An online video shows the drone flying the war dog onto the top of a building. The robot then maneuvers through the building, searching for the mock enemy with a machine gun strapped to its back. 

  Blood-Wing, a Chinese defense contractor, demonstrates drone-deploying an armed robodog.

  The Future is Now. pic.twitter.com/tRKnKa8xvp

  — Lia Wong (@LiaWongOSINT) October 4, 2022

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  If America’s enemies are weaponizing drones for the modern battlefield, perhaps US robotics firms working with Pentagon/DARPA should be doing the same. The proliferation of drones on the modern battlefield in Ukraine provides a hint of the future of warfighting via automation. And these will be the tools of war in the next great conflict (whenever that is).  

  The one big issue we see is if these war dogs are transferred to law enforcement agencies and used against Americans. Let’s hope these war robots stay on the battlefield. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 22:00

• CIA, US Special Forces Presence Now "Far More Extensive" In Ukraine: Report
  CIA, US Special Forces Presence Now “Far More Extensive” In Ukraine: Report

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  US special operations forces are on the ground in Ukraine as part of a broad covert operation that includes CIA personnel, The Intercept reported on Wednesday, citing unnamed US intelligence and military officials.

  The report said that the US withdrew its CIA and special operations assets from Ukraine shortly before Russia’s invasion, although one US official said the CIA “never completely left.”

  

  The CIA initially predicted that Kyiv would fall quickly to Russia, but after it became clear that wouldn’t happen, the Biden administration sent its covert assets back into Ukraine.

  The report said that US clandestine operations inside Ukraine “are now far more extensive than they were early in the war, when US intelligence officials were fearful that Russia would steamroll over the Ukrainian army.”

  Several current and former intelligence officials said that there “is a much larger presence of both CIA and US special operations personnel and resources in Ukraine than there were at the time of the Russian invasion in February.”

  Back in June, The New York Times reported that there was a CIA presence in Ukraine, but it made no mention of US special operations forces. The Times report did say that several US allies have special operations troops in Ukraine, including Britain, France, Canada, and Lithuania.

  The Intercept report said the covert operations inside Ukraine are being conducted under a covert presidential finding that indicates President Biden has quietly notified Congress of a “broad program of clandestine operations inside the country.”

  The Intercept buried this story’s actual scoop: that “clandestine American operations inside Ukraine are now far more extensive than they were early in the war,” with “a much larger presence of both CIA and U.S. special operations personnel” now than in February. https://t.co/eQcsc7cu5o

  — Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) October 6, 2022

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  The report said that the finding President Biden is using is an altered version of a finding originally during the Obama administration:

  “One former special forces officer said that Biden amended a preexisting finding, originally approved during the Obama administration, that was designed to counter malign foreign influence activities. A former CIA officer told The Intercept that Biden’s use of the preexisting finding has frustrated some intelligence officials, who believe that U.S. involvement in the Ukraine conflict differs so much from the spirit of the finding that it should merit a new one.”

  It’s not clear what the US personnel are doing inside Ukraine or where exactly they are operating, but the presence risks provoking Russia. The covert operations contradict President Biden’s pledge not to send troops into Ukraine, which he said before Russia’s invasion could spark a “world war.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 21:40

• Kinzinger Points Finger At Elon Musk As Ukrainian Forces Claim "Catastrophic" Starlink Outages
  Kinzinger Points Finger At Elon Musk As Ukrainian Forces Claim “Catastrophic” Starlink Outages

  Elon Musk when sparring earlier this week with detractors on Twitter over his Russia-Ukraine peace poll said that he personally lost more than $80 million helping connect Ukrainians to the internet after donating Starlinks to the country amid the Russian invasion. The systems are also used by Ukraine’s military in front line positions. 

  Now there’s fresh scrutiny being placed on the billionaire entrepreneur after reports surfaced Friday that there have been “catastrophic” outages, based on the claims of Ukrainian officials. “Ukrainian troops have reported outages of their Starlink communication devices on the frontline, hindering efforts to liberate territory from Russian forces, according to Ukrainian officials and soldiers,” FT is reporting.

  

  “Thousands of Starlink terminals, made by Elon Musk-owned SpaceX, were purchased by the US government and crowdfunded by donors to help Ukrainian troops operate drones, receive vital intelligence updates and communicate with each other in areas where there are no other secure networks,” FT reviews. Importantly the outages reportedly occurred in regions crucial to the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in places like Karkhiv, Donets, Luhansk, as well as near Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

  But then there’s also the reality to consider of a cutting edge satellite web system being utilized in the middle of a war-torn country amid active invasion by a superpower, inevitably suffering bouts of short term glitches. It’s also as yet unclear the effectiveness of Russian signal-jamming tools, including the possibility of electromagnetic warfare. 

  Well-known Republican hawk Adam Kinzinger immediately upon the claims of faulty Starlinks emerging from Ukrainian sources demanded an investigation into Musk, calling it “a national security issue”.

  The accusatory tweet strongly suggests the Illinois Congressman thinks there’s some level of intentional malfeasance related to the Strarlink systems on the part of the SpaceX and Tesla CEO.

  Evidently the Starlink system is down over the front lines of Ukraine. @elonmusk should make a statement about this, or, this should be investigated. This is a national security issue

  — Adam Kinzinger🇺🇦🇺🇸✌️ (@AdamKinzinger) October 7, 2022

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  The timing couldn’t be more curious given the FT report underscores the Starlinks had suffered failures starting “weeks” ago – and yet insinuations against Musk are suddenly popping up alongside these new reports. “Another Kyiv official said the connection failures were widespread and prompted panicked calls from soldiers to helplines,” FT detailed. “Both Ukrainian officials said the problems occurred when soldiers liberated territory from Russia and moved past the frontline.”

  And as it so happens, as we detailed days ago, Musk has been getting slammed for expressing ‘wrongthink’ on the Ukraine war. Musk’s peace poll from Monday, for which he was told to “f**k off” by Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany Andrij Melnyk, even led to him being mocked and denounced by President Volodymyr Zelensky.

  Very quickly, a mainstream media narrative solidified of “hero” Zelensky vs. “pro-Putin” Elon Musk. This despite Musk emphasizing that he is interested in seeking peace at all costs because “a possible, albeit unlikely, outcome from this conflict is nuclear war.” 

  Starlink “crucial as a secure form of communication on the battlefield, a soldier says … Ignore [Musk’s] tweets, he argues: “Starlink is our oxygen … If we tell Musk [to] piss off and take his Starlinks with him, our army would collapse into chaos.” https://t.co/80NazM5FoT

  — Shashank Joshi (@shashj) October 7, 2022

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  And yet throughout this week blue-check mark gatekeepers, journalists, bots, pundits and even government officials have pounced, seeking to paint Musk as a pro-Kremlin stooge (and thus a “traitor” – as Rep. Kinzinger’s tweet also insinuates). Now to end the week, we suddenly have demands that Musk be investigated over a “national security issue”… very, very curious timing indeed.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 21:20

• How To Settle The Great Chess Cheating Scandal
  How To Settle The Great Chess Cheating Scandal

  Authored by Kenneth Rogoff via Project Syndicate,

  In early September, the 19-year-old American upstart Hans Niemann crushed world chess champion Magnus Carlsen, prompting the latter to level accusations of computer-assisted cheating. In the absence of any hard evidence to resolve the matter, the two should settle it on the chess board.

  

  The chess world is reeling from an accusation of cheating that has generated headlines around the world, even drawing a response from Elon Musk. With the situation remaining unsettled and unresolved, the World Chess Federation (FIDE) has launched an investigation that one hopes will lead to better rules. But that is unlikely to prove decisive in the controversy at hand, so I want to suggest another way forward.

  The basic facts of the case are as follows. In early September, the 19-year-old American upstart Hans Niemann, playing the black pieces, crushed world champion Magnus Carlsen of Norway. The match was shocking not only because Carlsen lost (which does happen, if only rarely), but because it is exceedingly rare for the world’s top player to be defeated in such a smooth, one-sided fashion.

  The story could have ended there, but Carlsen withdrew from the tournament, insinuating that Niemann had been aided by a computer, possibly with the help of an accomplice. He then leveled that accusation openly in writing. His statement, remarks by other players, and all the other details are now available everywhere. But no one, ultimately, has any definitive answers.

  To be more precise, it is pretty clear that Niemann has cheated in the past in online tournaments that are not considered official games for ranking purposes. He has admitted as much. What is shocking the chess world is Carlsen’s insinuation that Niemann might be cheating in major face-to-face matches, even where he is being recorded from all angles.

  Carlsen has a very long record as a consummate sportsman, having played tens of thousands of games against all kinds of players. His credibility is unquestioned, and it is hard not to take him seriously. If he felt that Niemann behaved strangely during the game (his open letter alleges that his opponent never seemed to be concentrating or taking the game seriously), one must respect that.

  Then again, weird behavior is not a crime. Concrete substantiation would have to be in the form of, say, proof that Niemann was carrying a device that allowed him to receive signals – possibly in Morse code – from an accomplice following the game and using a computer to come up with moves. How might tournament organizers prevent this? Airport scanners are fine if the concern is that players are carrying guns, but they most likely would not catch a tiny receiving chip planted somewhere on a player’s body.

  What makes the case so difficult is that it is relatively easy to check retroactively if someone has been relying heavily on help from a computer, which is why all the big tournaments routinely screen the games to see if the play looks too “computer-like.” But if a player throws in some random, mediocre (but not losing) moves to throw off the scent, that is much harder to detect. Moreover, a strong enough player would not need a hint on every move. Just an occasional “stay awake here” would confer a staggering advantage.

  Amateur sleuths think they have found many striking examples of Niemann playing games that are so blindingly brilliant, and so computer-like, that he must be cheating at least some of the time. Hikaru Nakamura, long one of the world’s very top players, has concluded that Niemann is either the greatest talent who has ever walked the earth, or he is cheating. Another top player, Fabiano Caruana (who tied Carlsen in their 2018 world championship match but lost in a rapid playoff) is more circumspect than Nakamura, but still finds some of Niemann’s moves to be brilliant beyond his own human understanding.

  That said, it is equally important to note that the respected anti-cheating expert Ken Regan, a computer scientist at the University at Buffalo, has conducted his own statistical analysis and concluded that Niemann’s gameplay shows nothing glaringly suspicious.

  The situation is vexing. On one hand, I am very uncomfortable with seeing Niemann’s budding career destroyed. What if he really is the second coming of Bobby Fischer? Is he to be canceled for his genius?

  On the other hand, I would like to see Niemann prove that he is for real. A simple approach would be for him to agree that during any major tournament, the organizers can ask him to give a long interview immediately after one or two of the games to discuss his thinking in concrete detail (avoiding a discussion of the early moves, which usually come from computer-aided preparation anyway). As compensation for his time, they could pay him a large bonus. And, of course, such interviews would draw worldwide attention.

  So far, some of Niemann’s explanations of critical move choices have indeed been quite superficial, adding to the suspicion. Normally, a truly great player who discusses a game’s moves in its immediate aftermath offers a mélange of brilliant variations that he considered. He does not just randomly land on amazing computer-like ideas that magically work.

  Moreover, instead of refusing to play Niemann, Carlsen should agree to an informal match where they first play 20 blitz games, the fast pace of which makes cheating extremely difficult, followed by eight regular games. The arbiters can use whatever high-tech equipment and procedures that they deem necessary to preclude cheating (including not livestreaming the broadcast).

  If Niemann does well (winning, say, 12 blitz games and 4.5-3.5 full-length games), Carlsen would agree to apologize in writing and retract previous remarks and insinuations, and Niemann would get a very big pot of money. But if Niemann is crushed, he will be outed. He would agree not to sue Carlsen for defamation, and he would voluntarily take a one-year hiatus from chess.

  Plenty of people would be willing to sponsor such a match (here’s looking at you, Elon). So let us settle it on the chess board.

  *  *  *

  Subscribe to Project Syndicate Digital

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 21:00

• CDC: Record Number Of Children Hospitalized With Weakened Immune Systems
  CDC: Record Number Of Children Hospitalized With Weakened Immune Systems

  Official data suggests that more children and young adults than ever have been hospitalized with colds and respiratory issues, according to the Daily Mail, which notes that “experts have repeatedly warned lockdowns and measures used to contain Covid like face masks also suppressed the spread of germs which are crucial for building a strong immune system in children.”

  

  According to a retrospective report by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), levels of common cold viruses hit their highest level among non-adults in August 2021 – when levels had been much lower in previous years during the same month.

  

  According to the data which sampled nearly 700 children, nearly 55% tested positive for RSV in August 2021. Of that, 450 were moved to emergency departments where nearly 35% had RSV – which is comparable to the winter months when over 30% of patients regularly have the virus, according to the report.

  The CDC samples random pediatric hospitals across the US and makes national estimates to gauge how prevalent viruses are. 

  There were nearly 700 children in hospital sick with a respiratory virus across the seven wards studied in August last year, of which just over half had tested positive for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) – which is normally benign.

  This was the highest levels ever recorded in summer, and came off the back of a year and a half of brutal pandemic restrictions forcing many to stay indoors.

  The record all-time high is in December, when 60 per cent of children on wards with respiratory illnesses were infected with RSV. –Daily Mail

  

  What’s more, separate data from the CDC indicates that hospital visits for those under four years old may be getting worse. For the week ending Sept. 18 of this year, 4.7% of ER visits in the US for toddlers were for breathing difficulties.

  

  Yale medical director Dr. Scott Roberts told the Mail that lockdowns robbed children of the ability to build up immunity to common illnesses.

  “There are two implications to this,” he said. “First, the gap gives time for the viruses to mutate even further to cause more severe disease. And second, whatever immunity was built up to those viruses’ it will have waned making the immune response now much less potent.”

  Roberts added that his son, who just turned two-years-old, was coming down with repeated infections after starting daycare.

  “We were pretty sheltered during the pandemic,” he said, adding “But now my son has just started daycare and he is getting constant infections.”

  The rise in hospitalizations among children was noted in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), after scientists monitored seven hospitals in seven states for the number of children admitted for respiratory issues. Each child was then tested to determine what disease they had – which doesn’t necessarily mean that was the reason for hospitalization.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 20:40

• World Careening Toward "Dangerous New Normal", IMF Chief Warns
  World Careening Toward “Dangerous New Normal”, IMF Chief Warns

  Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,

  The world is facing the risk of a recession, with the global economy experiencing a “fundamental shift,” warned Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

  

  In just three years, the world has lived through “shock, after shock, after shock,” Georgieva said during a speech at Georgetown University in Washington on Oct. 6. The world had to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and “climate disasters on all continents,” she claimed, saying such shocks have caused “immeasurable harm” to people’s lives.

  The combined effect has been a surge in the prices of goods, especially energy and foods, creating a cost-of-living crisis, she said.

  The world is seeing a “fundamental shift” in the global economy, moving away from a world of relative predictability— which had a rules-based framework for international economic cooperation, low inflation, and low interest rates—to a world of more fragility, greater uncertainty, geopolitical confrontations, higher economic volatility, and more frequent devastating natural disasters, she said.

  To prevent this period of heightened fragility from becoming a “dangerous new normal,” the world must focus on stabilizing the global economy, revitalizing cooperation, and transforming the economy to build resilience against any future shocks, Georgieva said.

  Uncertainty remains “extremely high” in the context of the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Georgieva raised the possibility of “even more” economic shocks, pointing out that financial stability risks are rising.

  The IMF head wants policymakers to focus on bringing down inflation and put in place a responsible fiscal policy that protects the financially vulnerable.

  “The deeper causes of the world’s fragility can only be addressed by countries working together,” she said.

  Growth Downgrade, Recession in US

  In her speech, Georgieva pointed out that the IMF had projected a strong recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, with the agency’s economists thinking that inflation would quickly subside.

  “But this is not what happened. Multiple shocks, among them a senseless war, changed the economic picture completely. Far from being transitory, inflation has become more persistent,” she said.

  “We have downgraded our growth projections already three times, to only 3.2 percent for 2022 and 2.9 percent for 2023. And as you will see in our updated World Economic Outlook next week, we will downgrade growth for next year.”

  All of the world’s major economies are “slowing down,” including the United States, China, and the eurozone, she said. This ends up affecting developing and emerging nations as well, since they will be faced with reduced export demand as well as high energy and food prices.

  The IMF believes the risks of recession are rising, with nations accounting for a third of the world economy projected to see “at least” two consecutive quarters of economic declines in 2022 or 2023. The United States has already had two consecutive negative quarters in 2022.

  Even if there is positive growth, it will “feel like a recession” due to rising prices and shrinking incomes, Georgieva said. The IMF projects roughly $4 trillion in global output loss between now and 2026.

  Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller had recently warned that the potential economic downturn in the United States could be worse than an “average garden variety” recession.

  At an investor summit in late September, Druckenmiller said it will be impossible for the U.S. economy to experience a “soft landing.” Instead, he is expecting the economy to do a “hard landing” by the end of 2023 due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes in response to rising inflation.

  “We are in deep trouble,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 20:20

• NYC Rent-Wage Gap Widest Since 2008
  NYC Rent-Wage Gap Widest Since 2008

  While President Biden’s social media team is busy tweeting photo ops in gas-guzzling Corvettes to brag about how great the economy is doing, Americans not living ivory towers are roasting in the flames of inflation, while stagnant wages fail to keep up.

  

  To wit, the gap between rent and wage growth in New York City is the widest since the 2008 recession.

  After adjusting for inflation, real wages were down by 9.1% year-over-year, while rents jumped 13.4% during the same period in August – a difference of 23%, according to StreetEasy, which notes that less than half – 48.2% – of NYC’s 4-million-person workforce earned enough to afford 10% of the apartments listed over the summer, unless they spent more than half their income on rent, the NY Post reports.

  If there’s any good news, StreetEasy adds that asking rents are still continuing their rise, but at a slower rate. Over the last year-plus, rents have plummeted to record lows and gradually rose to record — and bank-busting — highs. The impacts of those changes have included tenants getting sweet COVID deals who later faced massive rent hikes upon renewal — and house hunters finding themselves in bidding wars to lock in a deal.

  Among the city professionals hit hardest during this time: healthcare support workers, such as nurses’ aides and home health aides. Typical annual incomes in this field are just shy of $39,000, which StreetEasy says is hardly enough to afford a mere 2% of this summer’s inventory without having half of the earnings solely go toward the rent. -NY Post

  In the third quarter, the median asking rent for studios and one-bedroom apartments was $3,000 according to the report – while 2 and 3 bedroom units are going for $3,800. StreetEasy suggests finding roomates – which could save over $13,000 per year.

  That said, the tide may be turning. The report also notes that a greater share of rental listings (8.6% vs. 6.6% in July) are extending concessions – such as a free month of rent on a 12-month lease.

  In June we reported that a shocking 23% of New Yorkers can afford median rent amid an “incredibly tight market,” after Bloomberg cited a New York City Department of Housing Preservation and Development report that found only 23% of full-time workers in the city can afford median rent. 

  The city’s report used the median asking rent of $2.75k for vacant and available units in 2021, and 2020 salary data showed that only 23% of full-time workers in New York made over $100k.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 20:00

• Kanye Accuses Kushner Of Sabotaging Trump
  Kanye Accuses Kushner Of Sabotaging Trump

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  During his interview with Tucker Carlson last night, Kanye West savaged the Kushner family, accusing former White House advisor Jared Kushner of sabotaging Trump.

  

  “After talking to them, and really sitting with Jared and sitting with Josh and finding out other pieces of information, I was like wow, these guys might have really been holding Trump back,” said Kanye.

  Kanye also claimed that Jared Kushner and his brother Josh only arranged the Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab countries to “make money.”

  During the interview, West appeared to be somewhat nervous about the subject, at one point asking Carlson, “All these things with Israel … I just think it was to make money. Is that too heavy-handed to put in this platform?”

  “I just think that that’s what they’re about, making money, I don’t think they have the ability to make anything on their own, I think they were born into money,” West said.

  “For me as a maverick and a talent and a person that has been beaten, kicked, lost everything, said to have lost my mind… It’s a weird thing. A person who has built something from nothing when I sit across the table from Josh Kushner and he feels so entitled to that idea and this person has never brought anything of value other than being a good venture capitalist, I have a major issue with that. It makes me feel like they weren’t serving my boy Trump the way we could have.”

  Kanye West on the Kushner family: “They are all about making money, I don’t think they have the ability to make anything on their own, they were born into money” pic.twitter.com/Va3BgzJhkw

  — A Very Serious Place (@SeriousPIace) October 7, 2022

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  As Chris Menahan notes, “Though West didn’t know the minutia of Kushner’s dealings, his suspicions were entirely correct. Kushner sought $100 million in kickbacks from Israel after securing them $38 billion in foreign aid from the US.”

  “The Abraham Accords consisted of bribing Arab kings to normalize relations with Israel by offering them billions of US taxpayer dollars and high-tech weaponry to oppress their own populations.”

  The rapper also separately attacked Kushner’s brother, Josh Kushner, for investing in Kim Kardashian’s underwear line without his knowledge.

  “FUCK JOSH KUSHNER,” wrote Kanye in an Instagram post.

  “WHAT IF I HAD 10% OF KARLIE KLOSS UNDERWEAR LINE WITHOUT YOU KNOWING,” West wrote, adding, “AND YOU ONLY HAD 5%.”

  In the same post, Kanye also said, “JARED WAS HOLDING TRUMP BACK.”

  The latter message is a sentiment held by many Trump supporters, namely that Jared Kushner was a globalist plant within the administration.

  As we previously highlighted, Jared Kushner recently criticized Ron DeSantis over the Florida Governor’s migrant flights to to Martha’s Vineyard, claiming he was ‘troubled’ by the situation.

  “I personally watch what’s happening, and it’s very hard to see at the southern border, I also—we have to remember that these are human beings, they’re people, so seeing them being used as political pawns one way or the other is very troubling to me,” said Kushner.

  However, he didn’t have much criticism for Joe Biden for using migrants as political pawns to flood America, 4.9 million of whom have crossed the border since he came to power, paving the way for demographic changes that will permanently alter the country.

  Jared Kushner criticizes Desantis’s flight of migrants to MV: “We have to remember that these are human beings, they’re people, so seeing them being used as political pawns is very troubling to me.” pic.twitter.com/zVCWxMUeES

  — Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 (@RonFilipkowski) September 22, 2022

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  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behind the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 19:40

• Biden Pardons Thousands Of Pot Convicts, Orders Review Of Schedule I Status
  Biden Pardons Thousands Of Pot Convicts, Orders Review Of Schedule I Status

  President Biden on Thursday announced he’ll pardon thousands of people with federal marijuana possession convictions, and ordered a review of the plant’s classification as a “Schedule I” drug. 

  The moves stand in sharp contrast to Biden’s career in the Senate, where he helped create a regime for the mass incarceration of people convicted under drug laws. 

  “Sending people to prison for possessing marijuana has upended too many lives and incarcerated people for conduct that many states no longer prohibit,” said Biden in a statement. 

  His pardons will apply to nearly everyone convicted of simple possession of marijuana under federal law, but not to those convicted of selling or distributing it. It has no effect on the far greater population of people with state convictions.

  While no firm tally has been released, officials say some 6,500 people were convicted of simple possession under federal law between 1992 and 2021 alone. The pardons will also clear thousands more convicted under the laws of the District of Columbia.

  The move won’t free anyone from federal prison: Officials say there’s nobody behind federal bars today for possession alone. However, cleaner records will help eliminate barriers to finding jobs, leasing homes, receiving an education or receiving certain federal benefits. 

  “I am urging all governors to do the same with regard to state offenses,” said Biden. “Just as no one should be in a federal prison solely due to the possession of marijuana, no one should be in a local jail or state prison for that reason, either.”

  Despite his administration’s welcoming posture toward illegal immigrants, Biden is not pardoning non-citizens who were in the country illegally at the time they were arrested.

  In addition to the pardons, Biden did something else that has more far-reaching potential to bring a dose of rationality to federal regulation of intoxicants: He ordered Attorney General Merrick Garland and Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Bacerra to “expeditiously” review how marijuana is scheduled under the Controlled Substances Act.

  Under that law, drugs are classified into five “schedules.” In positively hallucinogenic fashion, marijuana is included in the most extreme Schedule I, reserved for drugs with “no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse.” Other Schedule I drugs include heroin, LSD, and ecstasy.

  Marijuana’s Schedule I status has made it far harder for researchers to study the plant’s medical promise — which has in turn helped the drug warriors’ justify keeping it in Schedule I. 

  On the other hand, fentanyl — which killed tens of thousands of people in 2021 — is in the less severe Schedule II. “It makes no sense,” said Biden in a welcome moment of lucidity. 

  Cannabis stocks surged on the news: Tilray Brands spiked 31% and then another 11% in after-hours trading. Canopy Growth — which, like Tilray primarily operates in Canada — rose 20% and then another 5% after the close.  

  “De-scheduling would allow a Nasdaq-listed company like High Tide to begin selling cannabis in legal states,” said High Tide Chief Executive Raj Grover, who called Biden’s move a “game-changer.” 

  While Biden’s moves are a step in the right direction, they leave most of the counterproductive, unconstitutional and authoritarian federal marijuana regime fully intact. They also introduce a new thread of irrationality into the scheme, writes Jacob Sullom at Reason:  

  “The moral logic of Biden’s distinction between simple possession and other marijuana offenses is hard to follow. He says using marijuana should not be treated as a crime. If so, how can helping people use marijuana justify sending anyone to prison?”

  Meanwhile, despite her own dismal record as an eager drug warrior, Vice President Kamala Harris couldn’t help chiming in on Twitter, declaring, “This is a step forward in correcting the historical injustices of failed drug policies.” 

  Dis you? https://t.co/d4B0W1wg8O pic.twitter.com/tMLwdxsaiK

  — 🐮 Dad (BASEBALL IS BACK!) (@yankees_28th) October 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In a 2019 Democratic presidential primary debate, then-Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard memorably eviscerated Harris over her past pursuit of marijuana convictions, putting a dagger in her presidential aspirations:

  Tulsi Gabbard bodying Kamala Harris, just tearing off mask:

  “I’m concerned about this record of Senator Harris. She put over 1,500 people in jail for marijuana violations and laughed about it when she was asked if she ever smoked marijuana.”

  1/2#DemocraticDebate2020 pic.twitter.com/bPRoREygeY

  — Django✯ (@SleepyDjango) August 1, 2019

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 19:20

• Victor Davis Hanson: An Epidemic Of Cognitive Impairment?
  Victor Davis Hanson: An Epidemic Of Cognitive Impairment?

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

  President Joe Biden, the nominal head of the Democratic Party, is 79. But he increasingly acts and sounds 89.

  Recently, Biden has pivoted repeatedly on stage with his arm outstretched to shake the hand — of someone not there.

  On one recent occasion Biden called out for Representative Jackie Walorski, R-Ind., who passed away in a car crash in early August. He was insistent, shouting to the crowd, “Jackie, are you here? Where’s Jackie? I think she wasn’t going to be here — to help make this a reality.”

  Biden’s fantasy was the reality that Walorski is no longer with us.

  Biden slurs his words. He truncates sentences. He speaks in a muddled voice that often makes comprehension impossible. When questioned, he grows irate, growls, and stutters.

  Biden’s messaging is even more confusing than his medium. On any given day, Biden may impetuously announce that U.S. soldiers will defend the soil of Taiwan, or that the “killer” Russian President Vladimir Putin, unhinged head of nuclear Russia, must be removed from office promptly.

  If Biden doesn’t like a question, he may deride the reporter as a “stupid son of a bitch.” He habitually lies about everything from COVID-19 vaccinations being unavailable until his presidency to the nature of his son’s military service.

  Biden confuses Iran with Ukraine. He calls a senior African American assistant “my boy.”

  For much of the Trump presidency, leftist opponents sought to remove him by the 25th Amendment. A Yale psychiatrist diagnosed Trump in absentia and declared him deserving of a straitjacket forced intervention. Partisan charges grew so intense that Trump voluntarily took — and aced — the Montreal Cognitive Assessment.

  Strangely, the same Left arm-chair psychiatrists offer no such worries about Biden’s clear mental decline.

  

  One reason Biden enjoys immunity from removal is that his 57-year-old vice president, Kamala Harris, is seen to be even more incoherent and ill-informed.

  Harris cannot plead age as the cause of her mental confusion. Yet, the more the public sees and hears Harris’ mixed-up word salads, and bizarre cackling spells, the more it is convinced that she is either ignorant or intellectually lazy — or both.

  Recently while at the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas, she read from a prepared speech that the United States honors its “very important,” “strong,” and “enduring,” “alliance” — with the communist, genocidal “Republic of North Korea.”

  For those other than the vice president, North Korea is the sworn enemy of the United States, and officially known as the “Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.”

  Millions of Floridians remain currently displaced by Hurricane Ian. In response, Harris recently reassured them that impending federal assistance would be predicated not on need or individual disasters, but on the basis of skin color.

  Translated that would mean that millions of the homeless, white middle-class should wait in line for relief, given Harris’s promises to “fight for equity, understanding not everyone starts out at the same place.”

  Speaker of House Nancy Pelosi is 82. At times she too seems trapped in her own world disconnected from reality. Pelosi apparently recently mixed up Taiwan with mainland Communist China, and thus exclaimed “China is one of the freest societies in the world.”

  She stood up and weirdly rubbed her clenched fists together when Biden in his state of the union address and darkly mentioned the dangers of soldiers inhaling toxic fumes from burn pits.

  Of course, after one of Trump’s SOTU addresses, Pelosi proceeded indignantly to tear up her copy of the speech on national television.

  More recently, Pelosi defended open borders and the vast influxes of illegal aliens by crassly claiming “We need migrants to pick crops.”

  Pelosi’s startling revelation of progressive condescension was reminiscent of NBC retweeting the liberal commentator who said of the movement of immigrants, “It’s like me taking my trash out and just driving to different areas where I live and just throwing my trash there.”

  The Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman is running for senator in his home state. His handlers try to keep him from questioners. They duck debates. And they count on the media to edit videos of his increasingly rare and bizarre appearances.

  Why?

  Fetterman recently suffered a severe life-threatening stroke, the details and prognoses of which he has yet to fully disclose.

  Like Biden, Fetterman is now severely cognitively impaired. He cannot finish a coherent sentence while campaigning.

  Almost daily Fetterman suffers long bouts of incoherence. He even becomes confused over where exactly he and his crowd are: “Send us back to New Jersey and send me to DC.”

  The Democratic Party’s top hierarchy is run by octogenarians and septuagenarians. In the case of Biden and Pelosi, their powerful positions and age-related cognitive disabilities startle both Americans and allies abroad.

  Why is the supposed party of youth dominated by such frail and forgetful elderly?

  Maybe because the alternative of the next generation of would-be leaders waiting in the wings — like a Kamala Harris or John Fetterman — is more frightening still.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 19:00

• Used Car Prices Record First Annual Drop In Two Years; Luxury Car Prices Take Beating
  Used Car Prices Record First Annual Drop In Two Years; Luxury Car Prices Take Beating

  Used car prices appear to moderate as the latest report from auction giant Manheim found that wholesale used-vehicle prices recorded the first annual drop in more than two years. 

  Manheim’s wholesale used-vehicle prices fell 3% in September versus the prior month. The index declined to 204.5 and is down .1% from a year ago, the first annual drop since May 2020.

  

  Prices are still elevated but down about 13.5% from the all-time high of 236 in January. 

  

  In April, we asked the question: “Are Used Car Prices About To Peak For Real This Time?” Followed by a note one month later titled “Used Car Prices Are Crashing At A Near Record Pace.” And by August, we found that “Used-Car Market Cools As Prices Plunge To One Year Low.” 

  Unpacking today’s report, compact cars had the most significant yearly increase last month at 5.9%, followed by vans and pickups, both of which increased by 0.8%. Increasing demand for smaller, more fuel-efficient cars could be due to consumer shifts away from gas-guzzling SUVs. Meanwhile, midsize car prices were marginally lower, but what caught our eye was the significant decline in luxury vehicles, down 4.8%. 

  

  The data suggests that the used car market is cooling and could be headed for a very turbulent time as a confluence of factors, such as soaring interest rates and elevated gas prices, curbs demand. 

  “Certainly, they’re [interest rate hikes] going to have an impact on the new- and used-vehicle markets,” Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, recently said. 

  However, higher interest rates could push more buyers with lower incomes and below-average credit scores to the used car market:

  “New vehicles are becoming more of a … luxury product,” Chesbrough said. “Even having the ability to buy a new vehicle and afford one certainly puts you on the upper end of American household incomes.”

  The good news is that Manheim’s data shows some normalization in the used car market, indicating that prices should move lower in the months ahead. The insanity during the pandemic could be over. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 18:40

• "Shoot Him So He Looks Like Grated Cheese": Florida Sheriff Offers Anti-Looter Advice
  “Shoot Him So He Looks Like Grated Cheese”: Florida Sheriff Offers Anti-Looter Advice

  Outspoken Polk County, Florida Sheriff Grady Judd recommends that residents who encounter a looter in their home in the wake of Hurricane Ian should “shoot him so he looks like grated cheese.”

  Watch:

  Sheriff Grady Judd: if a looter breaks into your home, take your gun and shoot him. Shoot him so he looks like grated cheese pic.twitter.com/uXxmJFZUnV

  — Brendon Leslie (@BrendonLeslie) October 7, 2022

   Judd last made headlines in June, when he responded to the Uvalde shooting by saying that active shooters should be taken out between zero and five minutes.

  “Once an active shooter, always an active shooter. Push in, save lives, neutralize the threat. We train for that; we expect that. I want them to shoot them, shoot them so much that you can read the local newspaper through them. Neutralize the threat,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 18:25

• China Is Expanding Its Energy Footprint In The Middle East
  China Is Expanding Its Energy Footprint In The Middle East

  Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

  • The top of China’s agenda in energy terms remains the Middle East.

  • The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit saw China enhance its influence with several of the world’s leading players in the oil and gas sector.

  • China is looking to forge a “deeper strategic cooperation in a region where U.S. dominance is showing signs of retreat”.

  The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit saw China enhance its influence with several of the world’s leading players in the oil and gas sector. These included not just the stalwart full SCO members of Russia, Kazakhstan, and India (which was handed the presidency of the organisation for the coming year) but also new full member, Iran, whose new status in the group was announced at the end of the summit. Additionally, and crucial to China’s long-term plans for the SCO that run alongside its multi-generational ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) power-grab project, memoranda of understanding (MoUs) were signed granting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt, among others, the status of SCO dialogue partners. Agreement was also reached on admitting, among others, Bahrain, the UAE, and Kuwait as upcoming SCO dialogue partners. Lest there be any misunderstanding about the true intention of all these manoeuvres by China, January saw foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain, and the secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), arrive in Beijing for a five-day visit to push ahead on negotiations over the China-GCC Free Trade Agreement (FTA). At these meetings, the principal topics of conversation were to finally seal the China-GCC FTA and a “deeper strategic cooperation in a region where U.S. dominance is showing signs of retreat,” according to local news reports. 

   One element of the SCO that is particularly useful to China in its use of soft power, alongside its use of several hard power mechanisms, to co-opt countries into its sphere of influence is that the SCO is often overlooked by Western media. This lack of coverage, though, belies the SCO’s enormous scale and scope, which broadly is the China-led equivalent of the European Union (EU), the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) all rolled into one. Founded in 2001, although pre-dated by the Shanghai Five group established in 1996 (comprising China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan), the SCO is the world’s biggest regional organisation both in terms of geographic scope and of population. It covers 60 percent of the Eurasian continent (the biggest single landmass on Earth), 40 percent of the world’s population, and more than 20 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP). The operational scope of the SCO ranges from collective security and military cooperation (in the mould of NATO) to economic and trade union (in the manner of the EU and the USMCA).

  

  The top of China’s agenda in energy terms remains the Middle East, with its immediate goal being to secure for itself the largest possible pools of oil and gas with which it can continue to fuel its economic growth. China’s goal economically is to surpass the U.S. in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) within the next 10 years to become the world’s leading economic power and, as a corollary of that, the world’s leading superpower. Therefore, it is not just enough for China to secure the largest possible pools of oil and gas that it can in the Middle East, which remains the world’s largest collective reservoir of such products, but also to secure these at the expense of the U.S., making it a zero-sum game for both countries. This model of exponential economic growth fuelled by Middle Eastern oil is the one that the U.S. itself used for many decades and it makes sense for China to do the same, taking advantage as well of the previous dithering in the West over the climate change impact of carbon emissions. The reluctance of the West to press ahead with oil and gas investment, whilst at the same time not building the infrastructure bridge required to move seamlessly into green energy as a substitute for these high carbon emissions products – notably the failure to invest in nuclear power – has allowed China’s sphere of influence to exploit two huge advantages. First, China itself has continued to use whatever fuel it wants to power its growth, usually at a much cheaper cost than the West’s green alternatives, and secondly the lack of building the transitional infrastructure bridge to green energy in the West has made core strategic parts of it – notably, the European Union – beholden to China’s great partner in this scheme, Russia.

  At the very top of China’s power structure, Xi Jinping is a man who, aside from entirely understanding how the U.S. forged its growth over the last 100 years or so (buying in oil cheaply from the Middle East being a key component), also understands how the UK did it in the 100 years or so prior to that. “Xi is a great admirer of the [British] East India Company, and his knowledge of how it operated commercially, and effectively as a spearhead of British state interests, is extensive,” a senior energy security source from the European Union exclusively told OilPrice.com. Indeed, one lesson learned by Xi, it transpires, is the value of offering investment into countries initially and then leveraging this out into extensive political power, as the East India Company successfully did across India, southeast Asia, and east Asia as well, including in Hong Kong and China. 

  Top of China’s list in this regard is not Iran, although it is a useful country to have in its figurative back pocket, given both its huge and relatively under-developed oil and gas riches and its ability to cause chaos in the region and to U.S. interests there and elsewhere. The country that China is really after in the Middle East is Saudi Arabia and by signing an MoU with it, via the SCO, for it to become a full dialogue partner for the organisation, China is adding a layer of official organisational credence to what it has been busy doing with Saudi Arabia for years. Beijing’s efforts in this regard have been most effective since it stepped in to save Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) from domestic and international humiliation in his proposed initial public offering of Saudi Aramco, as analysed in depth in my latest book on the global oil markets. From this point onwards, MbS has been in China’s debt – as were the leaders of countries targeted and similarly helped by the East India Company – and Saudi Arabia’s positivity towards China increasing its influence there has followed. 

  Not only is Saudi Arabia now a prime mover in advancing the China-GCC Free Trade Agreement (FTA) – a key aim of which is to forge a “deeper strategic cooperation in a region where U.S. dominance is showing signs of retreat” – but also the Kingdom is now a prime advocate for switching away from the hegemony of U.S. dollars in the pricing of global oil and gas. Just after China made the offer to MbS to privately buy the entire 5 percent stake in Saudi Aramco that he originally wanted to float, the then-Saudi Vice Minister of Economy and Planning, Mohammed al-Tuwaijri, told a Saudi-China conference in Jeddah that: “We will be very willing to consider funding in renminbi and other Chinese products.” He added: “China is by far one of the top markets’ to diversify the funding…[and] we will also access other technical markets in terms of unique funding opportunities, private placements, panda bonds and others.” 

  These comments came at around the same time as the visit of high-ranking politicians and financiers from China to Saudi Arabia, which featured a meeting between King Salman and Chinese Vice Premier, Zhang Gaoli, in Jeddah. At these meetings, according to comments at the time from then-Saudi Energy Minister, Khalid al-Falih, it was also decided that Saudi Arabia and China would establish a US$20 billion investment fund on a 50:50 basis that would invest in sectors such as infrastructure, energy, mining, and materials, among other areas. The Jeddah meetings in August 2017 followed a landmark visit to China by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman in March of that year during which around US$65 billion of business deals were signed in sectors including oil refining, petrochemicals, light manufacturing, and electronics.

  Since then, there have been a slew of deals done between the two countries, the most recent being the signing in August of a multi-pronged memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Saudi Aramco and the China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec). As the president of Sinopec, Yu Baocai, himself put it: “The signing of the MoU introduces a new chapter of our partnership in the Kingdom…The two companies will join hands in renewing the vitality and scoring new progress of the Belt and Road Initiative [BRI] and [Saudi Arabia’s] Vision 2030.” China also played a key role in engineering the five rounds of secret talks between Saudi Arabia and its historical nemesis, Iran, as reported by OilPrice.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 18:20

• California Begins Fighting Inflation With Stimulus Checks This Week
  California Begins Fighting Inflation With Stimulus Checks This Week

  Fighting fire with fire…

  In true “government exercises every wrong solution before finally begrudgingly arriving at the correct one” fashion, this is the week that California residents can finally expect to get their “Middle Class Tax Refund” – the name the state has given to its stimulus checks it is distributing to residents in order to help fight inflation.

  23 million taxpaying California residents are eligible to receive the payments, ABC reported this week. The payments are slated to start going out Thursday and Friday and are technically “tax refunds”. 

  The checks, which can be as much as $1,050 and are the brain child of Governor Gavin Newsom – will be distributed in amounts determined by people’s annual income, mixed with the amount of dependents they have. The California Globe broke down the details this week:

  …those making up to $75,000 a year, or joint filers who make up to $150,000, will get $350 each. Those who make up to $125,000 a year, or joint filers making up to $250,000, will get $250 each. Those who make up to $250,000 a year, or $500,000 filing jointly, get $200 each. One dependent may also be added at each tier for the same amount as each filer, meaning Californians could see as much $1,050, $750, or $600 coming in per household depending on tier level.

  The checks were debated over the course of the spring and summer and first started under the guise of gas relief checks. But California legislators weren’t happy with that idea and instead pushed for the idea of a flat rebate program for all residents making under a certain income level.

  

  Sounds a lot like universal basic income, doesn’t it?

  People who filed their taxes online will receive a relief check direct deposit, the report says, while those who filed a paper tax return in 2020 will get their funds on a debit card. 90% of direct deposits are expected to hit accounts in October, the report says. Debit cards will be mailed between now and mid-December, the same report says. Some will receive their cards by mid-January 2023. 

  Some have speculated that the timing of the stimulus conveniently lines up with mid-term elections, approaching next month. Former lobbyist Harry Schultz commented: “It’s not nearly as drastic this year since he has such a commanding lead, but this does help Newsom right before the election. Free money going out before an election, right during the beginning of a recession with consumer prices still being high? Yeah, that buys goodwill.”

  He continued: “Honestly, it’s a good bet hedger. Just in case something catastrophic comes out that hurts Newsom, he still has some cards to play, and this is one of them. It has been odd timing both times to say the least, and if I were [Newsom Gubernatorial opponent Senator Brian] Dahle, I’d bring this up during the debate, even just a passing mention of it being ‘coincidental.’”

  Meanwhile, as Insider notes, 73% of respondents said government spending was a “major cause” of higher prices when polled by a right-leaning advocacy group earlier this year. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 10/07/2022 – 18:00

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• All Of Us Are In Danger: When Anti-Government Speech Becomes Sedition
  All Of Us Are In Danger: When Anti-Government Speech Becomes Sedition

  Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “If you can’t say ‘F@#k’ you can’t say, ‘F@#k’ the government.’”

  – Lenny Bruce, comedian

  Anti-government speech has become a four-letter word.

  

  In more and more cases, the government is declaring war on what should be protected political speech whenever it challenges the government’s power, reveals the government’s corruption, exposes the government’s lies, and encourages the citizenry to push back against the government’s many injustices.

  Indeed, there is a long and growing list of the kinds of speech that the government considers dangerous enough to red flag and subject to censorship, surveillance, investigation and prosecution: hate speech, conspiratorial speech, treasonous speech, threatening speech, inflammatory speech, radical speech, anti-government speech, extremist speech, etc.

  Things are about to get even dicier for those who believe in fully exercising their right to political expression.

  Indeed, the government’s seditious conspiracy charges against Stewart Rhodes, the founder of Oath Keepers, and several of his associates for their alleged involvement in the January 6 Capitol riots puts the entire concept of anti-government political expression on trial.

  Enacted during the Civil War to prosecute secessionists, seditious conspiracy makes it a crime for two or more individuals to conspire to “‘overthrow, put down, or to destroy by force’ the U.S. government, or to levy war against it, or to oppose by force and try to prevent the execution of any law.”

  It’s a hard charge to prove, and the government’s track record hasn’t been the greatest.

  It’s been almost a decade since the government tried to make a seditious conspiracy charge stick—against a small Christian militia accused of plotting to kill a police officer and attack attendees at his funeral in order to start a civil war—and it lost the case.

  Although the government was able to show that the Hutaree had strong anti-government views, the judge ruled in U.S. v. Stone that “[O]ffensive speech and a conspiracy to do something other than forcibly resist a positive show of authority by the Federal Government is not enough to sustain a charge of seditious conspiracy.”

  Whether or not prosecutors are able to prove their case that Rhodes and his followers intended to actually overthrow the government, the blowback will be felt far and wide by anyone whose political views can be labeled “anti-government.”

  All of us are in danger.

  In recent years, the government has used the phrase “domestic terrorist” interchangeably with “anti-government,” “extremist” and “terrorist” to describe anyone who might fall somewhere on a very broad spectrum of viewpoints that could be considered “dangerous.”

  The ramifications are so far-reaching as to render almost every American with an opinion about the government or who knows someone with an opinion about the government an extremist in word, deed, thought or by association.

  You see, the government doesn’t care if you or someone you know has a legitimate grievance. It doesn’t care if your criticisms are well-founded. And it certainly doesn’t care if you have a First Amendment right to speak truth to power.

  What the government cares about is whether what you’re thinking or speaking or sharing or consuming as information has the potential to challenge its stranglehold on power.

  Why else would the FBI, CIA, NSA and other government agencies be investing in corporate surveillance technologies that can mine constitutionally protected speech on social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and Instagram?

  Why else would the Biden Administration be likening those who share “false or misleading narratives and conspiracy theories, and other forms of mis- dis- and mal-information” to terrorists?

  According to the Department of Homeland Security’s terrorism bulletin, “[T]hreat actors seek to exacerbate societal friction to sow discord and undermine public trust in government institutions to encourage unrest, which could potentially inspire acts of violence.”

  By the government’s own definition, America’s founders would be considered domestic extremists for the heavily charged rhetoric they used to birth this nation.

  Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin would certainly be placed on a terrorist watch list for suggesting that Americans should not only take up arms but be prepared to shed blood in order to protect their liberties.

  “What country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance. Let them take arms,” declared Jefferson. He also concluded that “the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.”

  Observed Franklin:

  “Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!”

  Thomas Paine, Marquis De Lafayette, John Adams and Patrick Henry would certainly be labelled domestic extremists for exhorting Americans to defend themselves against the government if it violates their rights.

  “It is the duty of the patriot to protect his country from its government,” insisted Paine.

  “When the government violates the people’s rights,” Lafayette warned, “insurrection is, for the people and for each portion of the people, the most sacred of the rights and the most indispensable of duties.”

  Adams cautioned, “A settled plan to deprive the people of all the benefits, blessings and ends of the contract, to subvert the fundamentals of the constitution, to deprive them of all share in making and executing laws, will justify a revolution.”

  And who could forget Patrick Henry with his ultimatum: “Give me liberty or give me death!”

  Conduct your own experiment into the government’s tolerance of speech that challenges its authority, and see for yourself: stand on a street corner—or in a courtroom, at a city council meeting or on a university campus— and try denouncing the government with some of the founders’ rhetoric.

  My guess is that you won’t last long before you get thrown out, shut up, threatened with arrest or at the very least accused of being a radical, a troublemaker, a sovereign citizen, a conspiratorialist or an extremist.

  Or maybe you’ll just be fined.

  It’s happening all across the country.

  In Punta Gorda, Florida, for instance, two political activists were fined $3000 for displaying protest flags with political messages that violated the city’s ordinance banning signs, clothing and other graphic displays containing words that the city deems “indecent.”

  During the first month of the new ordinance being enacted, Andrew Sheets was cited four times by police for violating the ordinance by displaying phrases which said “F@#k Policing 4 Profit,” “F@#k Trump,” and “F@#k Biden.” Richard Massey was cited for violating the ordinance by displaying a sign which proclaimed, “F@#k Punta Gorda, trying to illegally kill free speech.”

  Coming to the defense of the two activists, The Rutherford Institute challenged the City of Punta Gorda’s ban on indecent speech as unconstitutionally vague and a violation of the First Amendment’s safeguards for political speech that may not be censored or punished by the government.

  We won the first round, with the Charlotte County Circuit Court ruling against the City, noting that the ordinance was “designed to cause the preemptive self-silencing of speakers whose messages are entitled to constitutional protection.”

  In other words, as the court recognized, the ordinance was clearly designed to chill political speech, which is protected under the First Amendment.

  You see, the right of political free speech is the basis of all liberty.

  No matter what one’s political persuasion might be, every American has a First Amendment right to protest government programs or policies with which they might disagree.

  The right to disagree with and speak out against the government is the quintessential freedom.

  Every individual has a right to speak truth to power using every nonviolent means available.

  This is why the First Amendment is so critical. It gives the citizenry the right to speak freely, protest peacefully, expose government wrongdoing, and criticize the government without fear of reprisal.

  Americans of all stripes would do well to remember that those who question the motives of government provide a necessary counterpoint to those who would blindly follow where politicians choose to lead.

  We don’t have to agree with every criticism of the government, but we must defend the rights of all individuals to speak freely without fear of punishment or threat of banishment.

  This is how freedom rises or falls.

  As comedian Lenny Bruce, a lifelong champion of free speech, remarked, “If you can’t say ‘F@#k’ you can’t say, ‘F@#k’ the government.’”

  Bruce, foul-mouthed, insightful, irreverent, and incredibly funny, was one of the First Amendment’s greatest champions who dared to “speak the unspeakable” about race, religion, sexuality and politics. As Village Voice writer Nat Hentoff attests, Bruce was “not only a paladin of free speech but also a still-penetrating, woundingly hilarious speaker of truth to the powerful and the complacent.”

  Bruce died in 1966, but not before being convicted of alleged obscenity for challenging his audience’s covert prejudices by brandishing unmentionable words that, if uttered today, would not only get you ostracized but could get you arrested and charged with a hate crime.

  Hentoff, who testified in Bruce’s defense at his trial, recounts that Lenny used to say, “What I wanted people to dig is the lie. Certain words were suppressed to keep the lie going. But if you do them, you should be able to say the words.”

  Not much has changed in the 50-plus years since Bruce died. In fact, it’s gotten worse.

  What we’re dealing with today is a government that wants to suppress dangerous words—words about its warring empire, words about its land grabs, words about its militarized police, words about its killing, its poisoning and its corruption—in order to keep its lies going.

  What we are witnessing is a nation undergoing a nervous breakdown over this growing tension between our increasingly untenable reality and the lies being perpetrated by a government that has grown too power-hungry, egotistical, militaristic and disconnected from its revolutionary birthright.

  The only therapy is the truth and nothing but the truth.

  If the government censors get their way, there will be no more First Amendment.

  There will be no more Bill of Rights.

  And, as I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, there will be no more freedom in America as we have known it.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 23:40

• These Are The Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers In 2022
  These Are The Top 10 EV Battery Manufacturers In 2022

  The global electric vehicle (EV) battery market is expected to grow from $17 billion to more than $95 billion between 2019 and 2028.

  With increasing demand to decarbonize the transportation sector, companies producing the batteries that power EVs have seen substantial momentum.

  Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti and Sabrina Lam have updated their previous infographic to show the world’s biggest battery manufacturers in 2022.

  

  Chinese Dominance

  Despite efforts from the United States and Europe to increase the domestic production of batteries, the market is still dominated by Asian suppliers.

  The top 10 producers are all Asian companies.

  Currently, Chinese companies make up 56% of the EV battery market, followed by Korean companies (26%) and Japanese manufacturers (10%).

  The leading battery supplier, CATL, expanded its market share from 32% in 2021 to 34% in 2022. One-third of the world’s EV batteries come from the Chinese company. CATL provides lithium-ion batteries to Tesla, Peugeot, Hyundai, Honda, BMW, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Volvo.

  

  Despite facing strict scrutiny after EV battery-fire recalls in the United States, LG Energy Solution remains the second-biggest battery manufacturer. In 2021, the South Korean supplier agreed to reimburse General Motors $1.9 billion to cover the 143,000 Chevy Bolt EVs recalled due to fire risks from faulty batteries.

  BYD took the third spot from Panasonic as it nearly doubled its market share over the last year. The Warren Buffett-backed company is the world’s third-largest automaker by market cap, but it also produces batteries sold in markets around the world. Recent sales figures point to BYD overtaking LG Energy Solution in market share the coming months or years.

  The Age of Battery Power

  Electric vehicles are here to stay, while internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles are set to fade away in the coming decades. Recently, General Motors announced that it aims to stop selling ICE vehicles by 2035, while Audi plans to stop producing such models by 2033.

  Besides EVs, battery technology is essential for the energy transition, providing storage capacity for intermittent solar and wind generation.

  As battery makers work to supply the EV transition’s increasing demand and improve energy density in their products, we can expect more interesting developments within this industry.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 23:20

• Vladimir Putin's Battle Cry Against The Deep State
  Vladimir Putin’s Battle Cry Against The Deep State

  Authored by Oscar Silva-Valladares via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

  The recent ceremony of accession of four Ukrainian regions to Russia brought a speech from President Putin that outlined the reasons behind Russia’s current struggles, the character and identify of its foes and, more importantly, laid the groundwork for Russia’s next level of confrontation with the West beyond the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine.  In his speech, Putin clearly defined the present fight as a worldwide battle in which Russia plays a leading role against the Deep State that ultimately runs the West and which uses all available tools – including military, economic, cultural, and social – in its attempt to preserve unipolar world domination.

  

  Putin’s words were directed to three distinctive audiences: the collective West, the Global South and Russia. He went back to Middle Ages history to remind the origins and impact of Western resource exploitation and colonialism in the Americas, Asia and Africa through imperialistic wars, racism, and slavery.  He touched upon the military exploits of the 20th century led primarily by the US and its allies and its impact in Germany and Japan at the end of the Second World War, Korea in the 1950s, Vietnam in the 1960-70s and its latest failed adventures in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan. He also highlighted the dire days of Russia during the 1990s and the Western powers’ attempts to turn it into a dismembered and passive cheap natural resources outlet. Putin’s message to Russians had nationalistic and religious tones, touching on the defence of traditional family values as a call to arms against the threat caused by dwindling population growth. He also named US monetary printing as one of the key tools used by the Western establishment to achieve its self-preservation and supremacy goals, reminding that paper doesn’t feed nor warms human beings.

  It would be tempting to see this speech narrowly as just another manifestation of Russia’s position in the big geopolitical battles, but what Putin has done is setting international rivalry in deep historical and cultural terms which have an undoubted appeal across the globe. Critics will see Putin’s benign characterization of Russia as a cynical ploy that hides the country’s role, through its commanding post in the Soviet Union, in the subjugation of Eastern European countries after World War II, but nevertheless the Global South will see things differently.

  Putin’s scathing attack against the West is a multi-headed weapon as it rallied to the conservative segments of a population dismayed by globalism imposing a deeply disturbing agenda that goes against traditional views on family, marriage and sex, but it also has leftist tones, as his criticism also goes against the same globalism that is worsening wealth disparity, and even a libertarian appeal as he referred to the imposition of states of emergency, media control and sanctions on other societies as examples of Western made totalitarianism. Putin’s primary target was the Anglo-Saxon establishment, mainly the US and Great Britain, and he attempted to build a wedge within the West as he focused on sovereignty, a cry with resonance in countries like Hungary and Italy, and on traditional anti-war sentiments in Germany and Japan by remembering the horrors of the World War II bombings in Dresden, Hamburg, Cologne, Hiroshima, and Nagasaki.

  An immediate consequence of Putin’s rhetorical escalation will be increased US pressure on the Global South to follow anti-Russian sanctions.  To successfully counter this menace, and as Russia needs its continuous support, it will have to combine ideology with pragmatic and tangible support in terms of access to critical energy and food resources to the poorer countries. The recent abstentions of China, India and Brazil on a UN Security Council resolution calling for condemnation of the Ukraine referenda no doubt were driven by these countries’ expectations on Russia’s future actions.

  Following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, and as it gradually abandoned socialism, Russia lost the powerful ideological appeal that it had during decades in the Global South and in the West’s anti-establishment segments.  The most remarkable aspect of Putin’s recent speech is bringing back ideological confrontation into the forefront. This new battle looks to present the West’s defence of democracy, freedom, and sovereignty as hollow and hypocritical. A combined message of anti-colonialism and conservatism is a powerful tool but Putin’s indirect and subtle appeal to people power as the only way to finally counter the Deep State is even stronger. Putin’s identification of the Deep State as humanity’s foe may be his ultimate ideological legacy, something avoidable if the US would have resigned itself to be just a normal country and to focus primarily on its people’s prosperity.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 23:00

• A Visual Guide To Stagflation, Inflation, & Deflation
  A Visual Guide To Stagflation, Inflation, & Deflation

  Today, high inflation and slowing economic growth have contributed to stagflation worries.

  As of August 2022, the U.S. inflation rate has risen to 8.3%, above the central bank target of 2%. Yet unlike the last period of stagflation in the 1970s, unemployment – a key ingredient for stagflation – remains low.

  Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld shows in this infographic from New York Life Investments, the key differences between stagflation, inflation, and deflation along with the broader economic implications of each.

  

  Main Features of Inflationary Environments

  What are the main characteristics of each inflationary scenario?

  

  The key markers of stagflation are weak growth, persistent inflation, and structural unemployment—meaning that high unemployment levels continue beyond a recession.

  In a stagflationary scenario, inflation expectations continue to rise each year. This can happen when inflation stays too high for too long, enough for expectations to shift across the economy. This was the case in the U.S. in the 1970s, until the Federal Reserve fought inflation with steep interest rate hikes.

  Here’s a closer look at some of the main causes of each scenario and how they’ve historically impacted households and businesses.

  1. Stagflation

  The term stagflation is the combination of ‘stagnation’ and ‘inflation’.

  The primary causes include the expansion of the money supply feeding into higher inflation, as well as supply shocks, which can drag on economic growth.

  During periods of stagflation, consumers spend more on items such as food and clothing, while earning less—reducing their purchasing power. Less purchasing power can eventually cause people to buy less, leading to falling corporate revenues, which can ripple across the economy.

  Case Study: 1970s Stagflation

  The stagflation of the 1970s saw inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, increase from 1% to 14% between 1964 and 1980.

  Price pressures, driven by skyrocketing energy prices in the 1970s, contributed to a sharp economic downturn. By 1980, unemployment reached 7.2%.

  

   

  In response, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as high as 20% in 1981. Soon after, inflation sank to 5% by 1982 and unemployment levels improved.

   

  2. Inflation

  Inflation is the rise in the price of goods and services across the economy. Broadly speaking, low and stable inflation is associated with periods of economic growth and low unemployment. It can be driven by rising consumer demand.

  The expectation of predictable inflation allows consumers and businesses to prepare for the future, in terms of both their purchases and investments.

  Case Study: 1990s-2000s

  Over the 1990s and 2000s, the U.S. saw relatively low and stable inflation.

  Rapid global population growth, the absence of oil shocks, and expanding global trade contributed to falling costs across industries. Between 1990 and 2007, inflation averaged 2.1% compared to 8.0% during the 1970s as price pressures became less volatile.

  

  Today, several central banks adhere to a 2% inflation target to ensure prices remain stable and predictable.

  3. Deflation

  Deflation is the fall in prices of goods and services in the economy.

  In many cases, its main causes are demand shortfalls, reduced output, or an excess of supply. For households, spending may stall as consumers wait for prices to fall. In turn, declining prices may lead to a lag in growth for businesses.

  Sometimes, deflationary periods raise concerns of slower economic growth. However, supply-driven deflationary periods may be associated with lower prices, raising real incomes and boosting output as exports become more competitive.

  Case Study: 1930s Great Depression

  Prior to WWII, deflationary episodes were more common than today. One prime example is the Great Depression of the 1930s, when real GDP fell 30% between 1929 and 1933 and unemployment spiked to 25%.

  

  Tightening monetary policy contributed to this environment. In fact, between 1930 and 1933, the U.S. money supply contracted roughly 30%, while average prices fell by a similar amount.

  Historical Asset Class Performance

  Which asset classes have historically tended to perform well across different types of inflationary environments?

  

  Defensive assets like gold and commodities have historically performed well during stagflationary periods, with average returns of 22.1% and 15.0%, respectively.

  Meanwhile, U.S. equities have typically performed well during moderate inflation, or ‘goldilocks’ environments, characterized by falling inflation and rising economic growth.

  Both U.S. equities and Treasuries have shown the strongest real returns in deflationary or ‘disinflationary’ periods of slowing growth and inflation, at over 8% returns on average each.

  Understanding Different Inflationary Environments

  Today’s inflationary period is jarring for investors after an extended period of low and stable inflation. With this in mind, the economy has historically cycled through different types of inflationary periods.

  While central banks aim to influence price stability and employment through monetary policy, investors can influence their portfolio by adjusting their asset allocation based on where the inflationary environment may be heading.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 22:40

• Biden's Secret Promise To OPEC Backfires: Shellenberger
  Biden’s Secret Promise To OPEC Backfires: Shellenberger

  Submitted by Michael Shellenberger,

  In early September, United States Secretary of Energy, Jennifer Granholm, told Reuters that President Joe Biden was considering extending the release of oil from America’s emergency stockpiles, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), through October, and thus beyond the date when the program had been set to end. But then, a few hours later, an official with the Department of Energy called Reuters and contradicted Granholm, saying that the White House was not, in fact, considering more SPR releases. Five days later, the White House said it was considering refilling the SPR, thereby proposing to do the exact opposite of what Granholm had proposed.

  

  The confusion around the Biden administration’s petroleum policy was cleared up yesterday after a senior official revealed that the White House had made a secret offer to buy up to 200 million barrels of OPEC+ oil to replenish the SPR in exchange for OPEC+ not cutting oil production. The official said the White House wanted to reassure OPEC+ that the US “won’t leave them hanging dry.” The fact that this offer was made through the White House, not the Department of Energy, may explain why a representative of the Department called Reuters to take back the remarks of Granholm, who has shown herself to be out-of-the-loop, and at a loss for words, relating to key administration decisions relating to oil and gas production.

  The revelation poses political risks for Democrats who, in the spring of 2020, killed a proposal by President Donald Trump to replenish the SPR with oil from American producers, not OPEC+ ones, and at a price of $24 a barrel, not the $80 a barrel that the Biden White House promised to OPEC+. At the time, Trump was seeking to stabilize the American oil industry after the Covid-19 pandemic massively reduced oil demand. Trump and Congressional Republicans proposed spending $3 billion to fill the SPR. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer successfully defeated the proposal, and later bragged that his party had blocked a “bailout for big oil.”

  Even normally strong boosters of the Biden White House viewed the Democrats’ opposition to refilling the SPR as a major blunder. “That decision,” noted Bloomberg, “effectively cost the US billions in potential profits and meant Biden had tens of millions of fewer barrels at his disposal with which to counter price surges.” Moreover, observed Bloomberg, it will take significantly more oil today to fill the SPR than it would have two years ago. In spring 2020, the SPR contained 634 million barrels out of a capacity of 727 million. Now, the reserve is below 442 million barrels, its lowest level in 38 years.

  The decision looks even worse in light of the decision by OPEC+ today to cut production, which will increase oil prices. The Biden administration in recent days has been pulling out the stops trying to persuade Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members, a group that includes Russia, to maintain today’s levels of oil production. Last Friday, the Biden administration sought a 45-day delay in a civil court proceeding over whether Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman should have sovereign immunity for the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, for which bin Salman has taken responsibility.

  The behavior by the Biden White House displays a willingness to sacrifice America’s commitment to human rights for the president’s short-term political needs. Instead of pleading with OPEC+ to maintain or increase high levels of oil production, the Biden administration could have simply allowed for expanded domestic oil production. Instead, Biden has issued fewer leases for on-shore and off-shore oil production than any president since World War II. As such, the pleadings by Biden and administration officials have backfired. The perception of the U.S. in the minds of OPEC+ members has weakened while the influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin has strengthened.

  Why is that? Why did the Biden administration decide to spend so much political capital trying, and failing, to get Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ members to expand production when it could have simply expanded oil production domestically? What, exactly, is going on?

  

  Substack subscribers can click here to read more…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 22:20

• September Payrolls Preview: "Bulls Need A 100k Print For The Market To Alter Its Fed Expectations"
  September Payrolls Preview: “Bulls Need A 100k Print For The Market To Alter Its Fed Expectations”

  Prior to Friday’s NFP (and CPI next Wednesday), the market has been oscillating between the “hawkish Fed” and “Fed pivot” narrative. While the JOLTS Job Openings and the ISM Manufacturing employment index showed more evidence of a slowing labor market…

  

  … yesterday’s stronger than expected ADP/ISM Services once again proved the economy still remains strong and therefore weakens the hope of a near-term pivot from the Fed. In a nutshell, according to JPM’s trading deks, with consensus expected tomorrow’s NFP to print +255k, Equity bulls would need a print ~100k to see the market alter its Fed expectations.

  That said, many have said that in the absence of a huge outlier (to the downside) what markets and the Fed will be focusing on will be the participation rate (look for a big bounce here to confirm the recent slump in job openings) and hourly earnings: anything below 5.0% Y/Y and a 0.1% or lower sequential number will be greeted by the market.

  Want more? Here is Newsquawk with a more detailed preview of what to expect tomorrow:

  • The headline rate of payrolls growth is expected to resume cooling in September, with the consensus looking for 255k payroll additions (vs 315k in August);
  • The jobless rate is seen unchanged at 3.7%, and there will also be focus on the participation rate after a welcome rise in August.
  • Wage growth is expected to continue, although the annual rate is expected to cool a touch.
  • Traders will be framing the data in the context of Fed policy; there are building hopes that the central bank might relent on some of its hawkishness if its policy tightening gives rise to financial stability concerns as it moves policy further into restrictive territory – these concerns could be exacerbated by soft economic data, as seen this week after the release of the Manufacturing ISM and JOLTs data, which fueled bets that the Fed would not be as aggressive with rate hikes ahead.

  PAYROLL GROWTH: Analysts expect 255k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in September (Goldman estimates nonfarm payrolls rose by 200k in September, 50k below consensus and a slowdown from the +315k pace in August.), with the pace of jobs growth seen easing from 315k in August;

  

  This would represent a resumption of recent trends where payroll growth has begun to cool (3-month average 378k, 6-month average 381k, 12-month average 487k). Jobless claims data that coincides with the reference period for the establishment survey in August and September augurs well for the headline: initial jobless claims eased to 209k vs the 245k level heading into the August jobs data, while continuing claims declined to 1.347mln vs 1.412mln into the previous jobs report. Meanwhile, while the ADP’s employment data bodes well for the official payrolls data (ADP printed 208k in September, a little above the expected 200k, and improving from the previous 185k), there is a great deal of scepticism about the payroll processor’s modelling, particularly given that its new methodology did not capture the trend of the August data in its inaugural release. Business surveys were mixed; the Manufacturing ISM report gave a sobering look at the labor market, where the Employment sub-index fell into contraction territory at 48.7, 5.5 points lower than the level recorded in August; the Services ISM however, saw the Employment sub-index rise to 53.0 from a previous 50.2, suggesting employment in the services sector continues to expand, while employment in the manufacturing sector is declining.

  UNEMPLOYMENT: The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged at 3.7%; analysts will also be watching the participation rate, which encouragingly rose by 0.3ppts in August to 62.4%. Additionally, there will also be focus on the U6 measure of underemployment after that picked-up to 7.0% in August from 6.7% in July. In terms of signposts about how these data will impact monetary policy, JPMorgan’s analysts point to the so-called non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), a level which puts neither upward nor downward pressure on inflation. JPM explains that when unemployment is above NAIRU, inflation tends to go down, and vice versa. The CBO estimates NAIRU is currently around 4.4%, but the median estimate of FOMC participants is at 4%. JPM itself argues that the actual level might have moved higher after the pandemic: “the relation between unemployment and job openings is also consistent with a higher natural rate,” it writes, “massive sectoral reallocation over the past three years is a likely culprit for this increase.” The Fed’s most recent economic projections envisage the jobless rate rising to 4.4%, where it is expected to stay into next year.

  WAGES: Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% M/M, matching the rate seen in August, but with the annual measure expected to ease a little to 5.1% Y/Y from 5.2%. The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence in September revealed that consumers were more optimistic about the short-term prospects for the labor market, although they were mixed about their short-term financial prospects. On this front, Fed officials have been closely monitoring the JOLTs data series, which offers a proxy on the tightness of labor market conditions (the tighter the labor market, the  more wage growth economists expect ahead). In that regard, the latest JOLTs data may be welcomed by Fed officials, given that it showed labor market tightness eased significantly in the month, which might suggest that wage growth is to cool further in the months ahead. (NOTE: the latest JOLTs report was for August, not September).

  POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Analysts will be framing the data in the context of the Fed’s mission to tackle surging consumer prices. BMO’s analysts argue that “as the market can now see the end of the rate hike cycle, market volatility around employment releases will increase,” adding that “the Fed has been very effective in communicating the fact that the strong underlying labor statistics have allowed it to be more aggressive in fighting inflation than they might have otherwise been; at some point this will turn, and as a result not only will the official BLS data be pivotal.” Accordingly, BMO argues that as the real economy enters the next stage of the cycle, the market will be on guard for any signs of undue stress in the labor market, given the ramifications it could have on the speed of Fed policy. Indeed, this week, soft ISM and JOLTs data both resulted in a re-pricing of Fed hike trajectory expectations (traders reason that soft data may compel the Fed to relent on some of its hawkishness, while any particularly strong economic data will embolden the Fed to continue to act aggressively with normalizing policy).

  ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT

  • Youth workers back to school. The loss of the youth summer workforce represents a headwind for September payrolls following strong summer employment gains for this segment. The household survey indicates that 1.3mn workers ages 16-24 were hired on net during the May-to-August payroll periods (nsa), the largest gain since 2016 outside of the 2020 reopening. As shown in Exhibit 1, September youth employment losses are strongly correlated with the summer pace of hiring in that segment, consistent with the vast majority of these workers returning to school in the fall. Additionally, this year’s particularly tight labor market suggests that many of these newly vacant positions remained unfilled during the September survey period. There is also find a negative correlation between youth summer hiring and the September nonfarm payroll surprise (relative to consensus, correlation of -0.47). These relationships would imply a roughly 35k nonfarm payroll miss and a roughly 110k drag on youth employment in tomorrow’s report (mom sa).

  

  • Big Data. High-frequency data on the labor market were mixed-to-weaker inn September, with each of the three measures available this month consistent with at-or-below consensus job growth (see Exhibit 2).

  

  • September first-print bias. As in August, payrolls have exhibited a tendency toward weak September first prints, which may reflect a recurring seasonal bias in the first vintages of the data. September job growth has missed consensus by at least 25k in 4 of the last 5 years and in 6 of the last 10 years. Relatedly, September payroll growth was subsequently revised higher by an average of 46k in the five years leading up to the pandemic, consistent with a negative bias in tomorrow’s report of roughly that magnitude.
  • Employer surveys. The employment components of business surveys generally decreased in September. Goldman’s Services employment survey tracker decreased by 1.0pt to 52.2 and its manufacturing survey employment tracker decreased by 1.7pt to 52.9.
  • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas increased 28.9% month-over-month in September, following a 9.3% increase in August (SA by GS).

  ARGUING FOR A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT

  • Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims decreased during the September payroll month, averaging 220k per week vs. 246k in September but up from 175k in August. Residual seasonality and other non-economic factors explain much of the variation in initial claims over the last few months, and the overarching message from the jobless claims data is that layoff rates remained very low in Q3. Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 66k from survey week to survey week, although they may also be affected by residual seasonality.
  • Job availability. JOLTS job openings surprised to the downside, declining by 1.1mn to 10.1 million workers in August. However, the level of job openings nonetheless remains elevated relative to history. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—edged up by 2.0pp to 38.0%.

  NEUTRAL/MIXED FACTORS

  • Seasonal factors. In contrast to those of the spring and summer months, the September seasonal factors have not evolved dramatically in recent years. The September month-over-month hurdle for private payrolls was -618k in 2021 compared to -665k in 2019 and -695k in 2017 (which unlike 2019 was also a 5-week September payroll). On this basis, September 2021 was sequentially more difficult by 50-75k. However, this could reverse for September 2022 based on the trend in recent months toward favorable year-on-year evolution in the factors. On net, Goldman is not assuming a significant tailwind or headwind from the seasonal factors (compared to a seasonality tailwind of as much as 100-200k in the previous report).
  • ADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report increased by 208k in September,n in line with expectations for 200k.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 22:11

• What Really Divides America
  What Really Divides America

  Authored by Joel Kotkin via UnHerd.com,

  The Midterms aren’t a battle between good and evil…

  

  Reading the mainstream media, one would be forgiven for believing that the upcoming midterms are part of a Manichaean struggle for the soul of democracy, pitting righteous progressives against the authoritarian “ultra-MAGA” hordes. The truth is nothing of the sort. Even today, the vast majority of Americans are moderate and pragmatic, with fewer than 20% combined for those identifying as either “very conservative” or “very liberal”. The apocalyptic ideological struggle envisioned by the country’s elites has little to do with how most Americans actually live and think. For most people, it is not ideology but the powerful forces of class, race, and geography that determine their political allegiances — and how they will vote come November.

  Of course, it is the business of both party elites — and their media allies — to make the country seem more divided than it is. To avoid talking about the lousy economy, Democrats have sought to make the election about abortion and the alleged “threat to democracy” posed by “extremist” Republicans. But recent polls suggest that voters are still more concerned with economic issues than abortion. The warnings about extremism, meanwhile, are tough to take seriously, given that Democrats spent some $53 million to boost far-Right candidates in Republican primaries.

  Republicans are contributing to the problem in their own way, too. Rather than offering any substantive governing vision of their own, they assume that voters will be repelled by unpopular progressive policies such as defunding the police, encouraging nearly unlimited illegal immigration, and promoting sexual and gender “fluidity” to schoolchildren. They ignore, of course, the fact that their own embrace of fundamentalist morality on abortion is also widely rejected by the populace. And even Right-leaning voters may doubt the sanity of some of the GOP’s eccentric candidates this November.

  In short, both major parties stoke polarisation, the primary beneficiaries of which are those parties’ own political machines. But most Americans broadly want the same things: safety, economic security, a post-pandemic return to normalcy, and an end to dependence on China. Their divisions are based not so much on ideology but on the real circumstances of their everyday life.

  The most critical, yet least appreciated, of these circumstances is class. America has long been celebrated as the “land of opportunity”, yet for working and middle-class people in particular, opportunity is increasingly to come by. With inflation elevated and a recession seemingly on the horizon, pocketbook issues are likely to become even more important in the coming months. According to a NBC News poll, for instance, nearly two-thirds of Americans say their pay check is falling behind the cost of living, and the Republicans hold a 19-point advantage over the Democrats on the economy.

  A downturn could also benefit the Left eventually. As the American Prospect points out, proletarianised members of the middle class are increasingly shopping at the dollar stores that formerly served working and welfare populations. Labour, a critical component of the Democratic coalition, could be on the verge of a generational surge, with unionisation spreading to fast food retailers, Amazon warehouses, and Starbucks.

  To take advantage of a resurgent labour movement, however, Democrats will have to move away from what Democratic strategist James Carville scathingly calls  “faculty lounge politics”: namely, their obsession with gender, race, and especially climate. For instance, by demanding “net zero” emissions on a tight deadline, without developing the natural gas and nuclear production needed to meet the country’s energy needs, progressives run the risk of inadvertently undermining the American economy. Ill-advised green policies will be particularly devastating for the once heavily Democratic workers involved in material production sectors like energy, agriculture, manufacturing, warehousing, and logistics.

  To win in the coming election and beyond, Democrats need to focus instead on basic economic concerns such as higher wages, affordable housing, and improved education. They also need to address the roughly half of all small businesses reporting that inflation could force them into bankruptcy. Some progressives believe that climate change will doom the Republicans, but this is wishful thinking. According to Gallup, barely 3% of voters name environmental issues as their top concern.

  Racial divides are also important — though not in the way that media hysterics about “white supremacy” would lead you to believe. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s decision to fly undocumented immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard was undoubtedly a political stunt, and one arguably in poor taste. But it succeeded in its main goal: highlighting the enormous divide between the border states affected by illegal immigration and the bastions of white progressivism who tend to favour it.

  Under Biden, the Democrats have essentially embraced “open borders” — illegal crossings are at record levels, and few of the migrants who make it across the border are ever required to leave. This policy reflects a deep-seated belief among elite Democrats that a more diverse, less white population works to their political favour. Whether they are right to think so, however, is far from clear. Black people still overwhelmingly back the Democrats, but Asians (the fastest-growing minority) and Latinos (the largest) are more evenly divided, and have been drifting toward the Republicans in recent years.

  Here, too, class is a key factor. Many middle and upper-class minorities are on board with the Democrats’ anti-racist agenda. But many working-class Hispanics and Asians have more basic concerns. After all,  notes former Democratic Strategist Ruy Teixiera, these are the people most affected by inflation, rising crime, poor schools, and threats to their livelihoods posed by draconian green policies.

  Culture too plays a role. Immigrants, according to one recent survey, are twice as conservative in their social views than the general public and much more so than second generation populations of their own ethnicity. Like most Americans, they largely reject the identity politics central to the current Democratic belief system. Immigrants and other minorities also tend to be both more religious than whites; new sex education standards have provoked opposition from the Latino, Asian, African American and Muslim communities.

  The final dividing line is geography, always a critical factor in American politics. For decades, the country seemed to become dominated by the great metropolitan areas of the coasts, with their tech and finance-led economies. But even before the pandemic, the coastal centres were losing their demographic and economic momentum and seeing their political influence fade. In 1960, for example, New York boasted more electoral votes than Texas and Florida combined. Today, both have more electoral votes than the Empire State. Last year, New York, California, and Illinois lost more people to outmigration than any other states. The greatest gains were in Florida, Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina. These states are high-growth, fertile, and lean toward the GOP.Likewise, regional trends suggest that elections will be decided in lower density areas; suburbs alone are  home to at least 40% of all House seats. Some of these voters may be refugees from blue areas who still favour the Democrats. But lower-density areas, which also tend to have the highest fertility rates, tend to be dominated by family concerns like inflation, public education and safety, issues that for now favour Republicans.

  Put the battle between Good and Evil to one side. It is these three factors — class, race, geography — that will shape the outcome of the midterms, whatever the media says. The endless kabuki theatre pitting Trump and his minions against Democrats may delight and enrage America’s elites — but for the American people, it is still material concerns that matter.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 21:40

• Biden Warns 'Nuclear Armageddon' Threat Back 'For First Time Since Cuban Missile Crisis'
  Biden Warns ‘Nuclear Armageddon’ Threat Back ‘For First Time Since Cuban Missile Crisis’

  President Joe Biden said on Thursday that the threat of nuclear “Armageddon” is at its highest level since the Cuban missile crisis, and that the US is trying to find an “off-ramp” for Russia before they begin the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

  

  “We’re trying to figure out what is Putin’s off-ramp? Where does he get off? Where does he find a way out?” Biden said at a fundraiser in New York City for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee at the New York home of James Murdoch, the son of News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch.

  “Where does he find himself in a position that he does not, not only lose face but lose significant power in Russia?”

  “He is not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological and chemical weapons, because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming,” Biden added, according to Bloomberg. “I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily use tactical nuclear weapons and not end up with Armageddon.”

  Are Biden’s comments related to why his admin is buying up to $290 million in anti-radiation drugs?

  Putin has renewed his nuclear threats as he announced the annexation of Ukrainian territory, some of which Russia doesn’t control, and with the call-up of 300,000 reservists to reinforce his flagging invasion. “When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people,” Putin said in a televised national address. “This is not a bluff.” -Bloomberg

  Biden’s dire language comes in stark contrast to his National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, who said last week that the US doesn’t Putin is serious. 

  “We do not presently see indications about the imminent use of nuclear weapons,” he said. “We are, of course, monitoring that carefully and staying in close consultation with allies and partners.”

  Sullivan added that the US has warned of severe consequences if Russia uses nukes.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 21:20

• A Preview Of The Igor Danchenko Trial
  A Preview Of The Igor Danchenko Trial

  Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

  The trial of Igor Danchenko is scheduled for October 11, 2022. While it is only a false statement case, we can’t help but ask whether the trial will reveal any Danchenko contacts with the Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign while he was acting as Christopher Steele’s primary subsource.

  

  The reason for that question? More on that below.

  First we start with the background. As you might recall, Danchenko was used by Steele as he conducted opposition research on Trump and his associates. Steele’s dossier (also called “Company Reports”) eventually made it into the hands of federal officials and the FBI and Special Counsel Robert Mueller, who used it to prepare and submit applications for warrants under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) to spy on Carter Page (and to collect the communications of the Trump campaign).  

  As Special Counsel John Durham alleged in the Danchenko indictment:

  “Each of the FISA applications set forth the FBI’s assessment that Page was a knowing agent of Russia and further alleged – based on the Company Reports – that Page was part of a “well-coordinated conspiracy of co-operation” between Trump’s campaign and the Russian government.”1

  The charges against Danchenko stem from false statements he gave the FBI during multiple interviews from January 2017 through November 2017. These are the counts from the Danchenko indictment:

  1. Count 1. June 15, 2017: Danchenko denied to FBI agents that he spoke with public relations executive Charles Dolan (a long-time participant in Democrat party politics) about materials in the Steele dossier. In fact, Dolan was the source of Danchenko’s and, as alleged by Special Counsel Durham, was “otherwise involved in the events and information described in the” dossier.

  2. Count 2. March 16, 2017: Danchenko told FBI agents he received a call in late July 2016 from a person he thought was Sergei Millian, when Danchenko knew he had never received a call from Millian.

  3. Count 3. May 18, 2017: Danchenko gave a false statement to FBI agents that he “was under the impression” that the late July 2016 call was from Millian.

  4. Count 4. October 24, 2017: Danchenko falsely stated to FBI agents that he believed he spoke to Millian on the phone on more than one occasion.

  5. Count 5. November 16, 2017: Danchenko lied that he “believed he has spoken to [Millian] on the telephone,” when Danchenko well knew he had never spoken to Millian.

  This isn’t the easiest false statements case, so credit to Durham for bringing it. The reason isn’t because Danchenko told the truth. He’s most certainly a serial fabricator. It’s that Danchenko’s statements were made around 5 years ago to sloppy agents, and to an FBI and Department of Justice that was uninterested in uncovering and pursuing the truth.

  Adding to the problems is that Sergei Millian, concerned about FBI abuses and generally untrustworthy of US assurances, remains somewhere overseas and will not testify at trial. At the same time, Durham must be conscious of the fact that the FBI was more than willing to allow Danchenko to lie.

  Materiality

  That brings us to “materiality.” Danchenko is charged under 18 USC § 1001, which criminalizes false statements to federal officials. Under this statute, Durham must prove that Danchenko’s statements were “materially false.”2

  Normally, proving materiality in this context wouldn’t be difficult. But Durham faces the challenge of proving that Danchenko’s false statements were material to an FBI that invited and ignored Danchenko’s lies. If there is any relief to those waiting on justice to be administered, it is that Danchenko’s lies didn’t need to influence the FBI. They only needed to be “capable of influencing” the FBI. Danchenko’s false statements definitely meet that standard.

  One way Durham will explain the materiality of Danchenko’s false statements will be to point to FBI obligations to notify the FISC about the misrepresentations from its witness under FISC Local Rule 13:

  “the FBI and DOJ would be required to inform the FISC about the misrepresentations made in each of the applications it provided to the FISC. Had the FISC known of these misrepresentations, it could have terminated the surveillance of Carter Page and/or ordered the FBI and DOJ to destroy the information it had already collected.”3

  Not that the FBI would have notified the FISC. As we have discussed, the FBI was generally aware of Danchenko’s contacts with Charles Dolan (and thus that one source of Danchenko’s information was a Clinton ally) and likely suspected back June 2017 that Danchenko had lied about his conversations with Dolan. Then there is the fact that the FBI refused to notify the FISC, contrary to the court’s rules, that Danchenko had contradicted some of Steele’s reporting.

  Moreover, the FBI misrepresented to the FISC in 2018 that it had “no control over” Danchenko, when in fact the FBI made Danchenko a paid confidential human source (CHS) from March 2017 through October 2020. This hid Danchenko from inquiry, and thus protected the FBI (and the DOJ and the Mueller Special Counsel) from their own lies being exposed. “Sources and methods.”

  To elaborate on that issue, I’m wondering if we’ll see any evidence as to who approved Danchenko as a paid CHS and why the FBI took that step. It might happen, if only because Danchenko lied while he was a confidential human source. If we had to guess a name, we’d venture it may have been former FBI Assistant Director for Counter Intelligence Bill Priestap who approved Danchenko as a CHS.

  And if the past provides any guidance, we may also see the steps the FBI took – or refused to take – to corroborate Danchenko’s statements, and who at the FBI was involved in that effort. At the Sussmann trial, for example, it was revealed that FBI leadership stopped inquiry into Sussmann’s role as the source for the bogus Alfa Bank information. As we wrote a couple weeks ago:

  “the dispute over the materiality of Danchenko’s lies almost requires the defense to prove government misconduct/ignorance. To which we say – good. Expose them.”

  What of Charles Dolan and the Clinton Campaign?

  Expect Charles Dolan to testify to his conversations with Danchenko and others relating to the dossier allegations at the trial. He’s already testified before a grand jury. For background, Dolan is described in the Danchenko indictment as having “maintained historical and ongoing involvement in Democratic politics.” His history includes serving as chairman of a national Democratic political organization, being a state chairman of Bill Clinton’s 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns, and an advisor to Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign.

  Based on his ties with the Clintons, one would think that the Clinton Campaign would have known about Dolan’s contacts with Danchenko. However, the Danchenko indictment states “individuals affiliated with the Clinton Campaign did not direct, and were not aware of, [Dolan’s] meetings with Danchenko and other Russian nationals.”

  That statement concerns Dolan’s lack of interactions with the Clinton Campaign. It still leaves unanswered the question of whether Danchenko had any contacts with the Clinton campaign, and whether the Clinton campaign was aware of Danchenko’s activities.

  Two theories on that. It’s possible that the Clinton campaign received updates on the opposition research but otherwise isolated itself from these matters, preferring its lawyers at Perkins Coie and its contractors at Fusion GPS (and their sources) get their hands dirty. That would be consistent with what we saw in the Michael Sussmann trial, a real-time demonstration of how the Clinton machine uses the the attorney-client and work-product privileges to manipulate the press, spread false accusations, and hide a number of sins.

  It is also possible that the Clinton campaign had more knowledge about Danchenko than has been made publicly available. I bring that up because back in December, we discussed a curious filing by Durham, which confirmed that the Clinton campaign and “multiple former employees of that campaign” were subject to “matters before the Special Counsel.” In that filing, Durham discussed the potential conflict of interest of Danchenko’s lawyers, whose firm also represented the Clinton campaign and those former campaign employees.

  Specifically, Durham raised these areas of inquiry that may become issues at the Danchenko trial:

  1. The Clinton Campaign’s knowledge or lack of knowledge concerning the veracity of information in the dossiers sourced by Danchenko;

  2. The Clinton Campaign’s awareness or lack of awareness of Danchenko’s collection methods and sub-sources;

  3. Meetings or communications between and among the Clinton Campaign, Fusion GPS, and Christopher Steele regarding or involving Danchenko;

  4. Danchenko’s knowledge or lack of knowledge regarding the Clinton Campaign’s role in the activities surrounding the Steele Dossier; and

  5. The extent to which the Clinton Campaign and/or its representatives directed, solicited, or controlled Danchenko’s activities.

  All of those points are important, but that last one is particularly compelling and is worth repeating: “The extent to which the Clinton Campaign and/or its representatives directed, solicited, or controlled Danchenko’s activities.”

  That implies the Clinton Campaign’s awareness of Danchenko and contacts with Danchenko. (After all, if the answer was “no,” then there would be no conflict.) Thus the potential conflict described by Durham:

  “the Clinton Campaign and [Danchenko] each might have an incentive to shift blame and/or responsibility to the other party for any allegedly false information that was contained within the Company Reports and/or provided to the FBI.”

  All this reminds us of a question we have previously asked. If the Clinton Campaign was being informed of the work by Fusion GPS, what of the likelihood that the Clinton Campaign was informing the work of Fusion GPS?

  And here’s a follow-up question: from whom did Danchenko get the name Sergei Millian?

  Furthermore, one has to ask whether those Clinton Campaign/Danchenko contacts, if they existed, stopped after the election – or whether they continued through Danchenko’s 2017 interviews with the FBI.

  Will these issues be raised, and will we get answers on the Clinton Campaign’s ties to Danchenko (or Danchenko’s “sources”)? As outside observers, we can’t – and won’t – make guarantees. There’s danger in false promises just like there’s danger in false hope. Durham, however, has suggested the possibility of former representatives of the Clinton Campaign testifying at trial, stating:

  “in the event that one or more former representatives of the Clinton Campaign are called to testify” at trial, Danchenko and the witness “would be represented by the same law firm, resulting in a potential conflict.”

  Whether they testify remains to be seen. We haven’t yet seen a witness list.

  Other Matters

  If you’re interested about Danchenko’s potential defenses, they’re outlined in his motion to dismiss, which was ultimately denied by the Court. I’ll summarize briefly: during trial, expect his attorney to argue that Danchenko’s answers were literally true and that the statements were immaterial.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 21:00

• Switzerland, Not USA, Is The 'Most Innovative' Country In The World
  Switzerland, Not USA, Is The ‘Most Innovative’ Country In The World

  The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) has released its 2022 Global Innovation Index. It evaluated innovation levels across 132 economies focusing on a long list of criteria such as human capital, institutions, technology and creative output as well as market and business sophistication, among others.

  The 2022 index has found that innovation is still blossoming in some sectors despite the global economic slowdown and coronavirus pandemic, especially in industries to do with public health and the environment.

  As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports, Switzerland topped the rankings with a score of 64.6 out of 100, the 12th time it has been named the world leader in innovation. The United States come second while the Sweden rounds off the top three.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  One of the biggest winners of the ranking was South Korea, which climbed up from rank 10 in 2020 to rank 6 in 2022.

  China is now the world’s 11th most innovative nation, up from rank 14 in 2020 and 2019 and rank 17 in 2018.

  China was also named the most innovative upper middle-income country ahead of Bulgaria (overall rank 35), while India (overall rank 40) came first for lower middle-income countries, followed by Vietnam (overall rank 48).

  Notably, China is now on a par with the United States in terms of the number of top 100 Science & Technology clusters

  

  Finally, WIPO notes that on the one hand, science and innovation investments continued to surge in 2021, performing strongly even at the height of a once in a century pandemic. On the other hand, even as the pandemic recedes, storm clouds remain overhead, with increasing supply-chain, energy, trade and geopolitical stresses.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 20:40

• US Buying $290M Worth Of Anti-Radiation Drugs for Use In "Nuclear Emergency"
  US Buying $290M Worth Of Anti-Radiation Drugs for Use In “Nuclear Emergency”

  Authored by Chris Menahan via InformationLiberation.com,

  The Biden regime is buying up $290 million in anti-radiation drugs for use in “nuclear emergencies” amid escalating tensions with Russia and heightened threats of a nuclear war.

  

  From Health and Human Services:

  FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
  October 4, 2022

  Contact HHS Press Office
  202-821-9446
  asprmedia@hhs.gov
  www.hhs.gov/news
  Twitter: @HHSgov

  HHS purchases drug for use in radiological and nuclear emergencies

  As part of long-standing, ongoing efforts to be better prepared to save lives following radiological and nuclear emergencies, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is purchasing a supply of the drug Nplate from Amgen USA Inc; Nplate is approved to treat blood cell injuries that accompany acute radiation syndrome in adult and pediatric patients (ARS).

  Amgen, based in Thousands Oaks, California, developed Nplate for ARS with support from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the HHS Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), as well as the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health.

  BARDA is using its authority provided under the 2004 Project Bioshield Act and $290 million in Project BioShield designated funding to purchase this supply of the drug. Amgen will maintain this supply in vendor-managed inventory. This approach decreases life-cycle management costs for taxpayers because doses that near expiration can be rotated into the commercial market for rapid use prior to expiry and new doses can be added to the government supply.

  ARS, also known as radiation sickness, occurs when a person’s entire body is exposed to a high dose of penetrating radiation, reaching internal organs in a matter of seconds. Symptoms of ARS injuries include impaired blood clotting as a result of low platelet counts, which can lead to uncontrolled and life-threatening bleeding.

  To reduce radiation-induced bleeding, Nplate stimulates the body’s production of platelets. The drug can be used to treat adults and children.

  Nplate is also approved for adult and pediatric patients with immune thrombocytopenia, a blood disorder resulting in low platelet counts. Repurposing drugs for acute radiation syndrome that also are approved for a commercial indication helps to sustain availability of the product and improves healthcare provider familiarity with the drug.

  “The US government said the procurement of Nplate was not in response to the war in Ukraine,” The Telegraph reported.

  “An HSS spokesman told The Telegraph: ‘This is part of our ongoing work for preparedness and radiological security. It has not been accelerated by the situation in Ukraine.'”

  The State Department last week urged all Americans to leave Russia “as soon as possible” in the wake of the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines.

  The official reasoning they gave was to avoid getting conscripted in their mobilization effort but that logic only applied to dual citizens and their advisory was for all Americans.

  As I noted at the time, the real reason they told everyone to leave is more likely the risk of a full-blown war breaking out due to the US, Ukraine or Poland being responsible for the belligerent bombing of the Nord Steam pipelines.

  While Russia has issued statement after statement warning the US they will use nuclear weapons to defend their territory and are “not bluffing,” the US has been shipping billions in high-tech weaponry to Ukraine to attack Russian forces and strike inside of Russia.

  Just last week, Congress voted to send another $12.3 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine.

  Biden said in February after the war broke out that Americans should not be worried about a nuclear war then spent the next eight months antagonizing Russia (and China) with endless provocations to make nuclear war more likely than ever.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 20:22

• Media Spin On Gun Control Doesn't Match Voters' Opinions
  Media Spin On Gun Control Doesn’t Match Voters’ Opinions

  Authored by John Lott Jr via RealClearPolitics.com,

  Red flag laws are the top priority of Democrats and gun control advocates.

  Polls show that Americans overwhelmingly support these measures – by margins ranging between 2-1 and 3-1. Congress recently passed legislation providing funding for states that adopted these laws.

  

  But the polling doesn’t really gauge whether Americans understand how these laws operate. The surveys generally just ask people if they support laws that “allow guns to be temporarily confiscated by a judge from people considered by a judge to be a danger to themselves or others.”

  Respondents might reasonably assume that a normal legal process is being followed, whereby complaints are made and witnesses are cross-examined. With a law that almost always involves fears of suicide, they might presuppose that mental health experts are involved in the process.

  To examine this premise, the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), which I head, hired McLaughlin & Associates to survey 1,000 general election voters from July 21-24, 2022. The survey began by asking people whether they supported red flag laws. It then informed respondents that there are no hearings before an individual’s guns are taken away, and that there are no mental health care experts involved in the process.

  People initially answered by a two-to-one margin that they support red flag laws (58% to 29%), with the strongest support coming from Democrats, the wealthy, blacks and Hispanics, and people aged 18-29.

  However, after being told that there are no court proceedings before an individual’s guns are taken away, and that there are no mental health care experts involved in the process, support changed to opposition (29% to 47%). Strong support plummeted from 34% to 14% and strong opposition rose from 18% to 29%.

  Finally, people were asked if they prefer “involuntary commitment” or red flag laws. They were told that involuntary commitment laws provide for evaluations by mental health care experts, that an emergency court hearing takes place before a judge’s decision, and that a lawyer is provided if the person can’t afford one. They are also told that, under such rules, judges have a range of less extreme options, such as mandatory outpatient mental health care and weapon confiscation.

  Survey respondents favored involuntary commitment by a 40%-to-33% margin. Only Democrats, the wealthy, blacks, and Asians supported red flag laws as their preferred option.

  The shift in position by the strongest supporters of red flag laws when told about the laws is consistent with them being the least well-informed. But that isn’t the only evidence of that problem. In April, the CPRC hired McLaughlin & Associates to survey what people thought the percentage of violent crime committed using guns was. They found that those most strongly supporting gun control dramatically overestimated the percentage of violent crime committed with guns. While the average Democrat estimates that 56.9% of violent crimes involve guns and the typical Republican gave an answer of 37%. (The actual rate is less than 8%.)

  We keep being told that there is 90+% support in polls for universal background checks on the private transfer of guns. But when these measures have been on the ballot, they haven’t been slam dunks. In 2016, despite Michael Bloomberg’s overwhelming financial backing, ballot initiatives failed in Maine by 4 percentage points and won in Nevada by less than 1%. 

  The Nevada initiative had $20 million in funding behind it, amounting to an incredible $35 per vote. That’s three times more than what was spent in opposition. In Maine, the opposition was outspent by a factor of 20. And in both states, the media coverage was overwhelmingly sympathetic to the gun control side.

  While the Nevada initiative technically eked out a win, it wasn’t able to go into effect because it had been inaccurately sold to voters as not costing taxpayers any money.

  Senate Republicans passed gun control earlier this year to take guns off the political agenda for this fall, but part of the compromise entailed providing federal funding to encourage states to adopt red flag laws. Democrats continue to cite surveys seeming to show that gun control will play a role in November’s election. Perhaps that’s right. Or is this perception more properly understood as an example of their consultants and pollsters not understanding the issues?

  Americans keep being told by the media that they overwhelmingly support gun control laws. So why don’t the laws get passed? Might it be that the polls are inaccurate and biased? My own survey suggests just that.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 20:20

• Global Trade Forecast 'Darkens' On Central Bank Tightening, Inflation, Ukraine War
  Global Trade Forecast ‘Darkens’ On Central Bank Tightening, Inflation, Ukraine War

  The World Trade Organization published a new report that outlines a sharp slowdown in world trade is expected for next year under the weight of skyrocketing energy prices, soaring interest rates, and war-related disruptions, with increasing risks of a global recession. 

  WTO economists expect world trade to “lose momentum in the second half of 2022 and remain subdued in 2023 as multiple shocks weigh on the global economy.” These economists expect global merchandise trade volumes will increase only by 3.5% in 2022, slightly better than forecasts in April of 3%. They warned that 2023 would be a doozy, forecasting only a 1% increase in trade volumes, down from the previous estimate of 3.4%. 

  

  Forecasts for world GDP will grow by 2.8% in 2022. The economists lowered their 2023 estimate to 2.3% from earlier expectations of 3.3% and warned, “major central banks are already raising interest rates in a bid to tame inflation but overshooting on tightening could trigger recessions in some countries, which would weigh on imports.” This means central banks could exacerbate the downturn by tightening too much next year. 

  The WTO’s downgrades to global trade align with new IMF and OECD projections. This is a drastic change and a considerable deceleration from last year’s 9.7% growth in international trade. Consumers, fueled by stimmy checks and ultra-low rates by central banks during Covid, are dialing back on spending as the hangover phase is underway. 

  “We’re looking at a situation in which a global slowdown is going to squeeze households even more, squeeze businesses and we may be edging into a recession.

   “It’s looking quite grim — a little more grim than we had thought,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. 

  The pandemic boom trade has ended as the global economy faces a multipronged crisis. We noted the reversal in the “shortage of everything” bullwhip effect has led to container lines on major shipping routes canceling sailings as US importers do not need to increase purchases of foreign goods because of rising domestic inventory as consumers are on strike due to negative real wage growth, low savings, and maxed out credit cards amid worst inflation in decades. 

  Last month, FedEx Corp.’s CEO Raj Subramaniam delivered a chilling message while speaking with CNBC’s Mad Money with Jim Crammer: The global economy is “going into a worldwide recession.”

  More evidence of the world stumbling into trouble is JP Morgan’s Global PMIs now sub 50, which means contraction. 

  

  WTO’s latest report is a reminder that 2023 economic outlooks for the world are quickly darkening as excess tightening by central banks could spark an even more significant downturn. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 20:00

• How Nation-States Will Use Bitcoin In The Power Projection Game
  How Nation-States Will Use Bitcoin In The Power Projection Game

  Authored by Jaime Gutierrez via BitcoinMagazine.com,

  Bitcoin miners are the next level of power projection as they reinforce an incorruptible network that cannot be usurped by a single entity…

  

  The military, today, is not considered an important element of society by the public. Why should it? It represents bloodshed and fights that seem pointless and have caused society a lot of pain. Similarly, studying Bitcoin as a property defense system is a misunderstood part of this asset and one that is biased by our own beliefs. How are they connected? Because both use brute force and physical power to defend property.

  As a Mexican-born citizen, I have always wondered why, given the abundance of natural resources like oil and lithium available in our country, Mexico hasn’t become a world economic leader. You might also have a similar point of view in your country of residence. Especially if you are in a developing nation in Latin America or Africa or if you live in a small country that has a lot of influence from superpowers like Russia, the U.S. or China.

  Throughout history, one of the reasons a country or empire has become a hegemonic power has been through what Jason Lowery calls the power projection game, which means the kinetic brute physical force of the military. This is important because if a nation doesn’t project power properly, how can it defend its natural resources and its sovereignty from another nation? And more importantly, as individuals, how can we defend our property from being stolen or confiscated by a corrupt agent? Here is where the role of The State arises.

  According to Robert Breedlove, the main purpose of a State is the defense and preservation of life, liberty, and property.

  “Property is the mutually acknowledged, exclusive relationship between an asset owner and any particular asset. As a relationship rather than any particular item, the essence of all property is informational.”

  “The right to life is the source of all rights — and the right to property is their own implementation. Without property rights, no other rights are possible. Since man has to sustain his life by his own effort, the man who has no right to the product of his effort has no means to sustain his life.” — Ayn Rand

  If property means a list of “Who owns what?” and life is the source of all rights, then how can we defend ourselves from a tyrant or a person that wants to steal our property? We want to be assured that the product of our daily life efforts gained through sweat, tears and sacrificed time will be safe for ourselves and our bloodline.

  “Reliably storing, updating and communicating information in this list is property’s native application. And the limitation of this has been the need to trust (and pay) an authority to maintain this list and prevent falsification or duplication of its records.” — Robert Breedlove

  For centuries, this authority has been the government. The government is the entity that determines the rule of law in a community. It works through the federal courts and its three main powers — legislative, judicial and executive — to defend the property rights of its citizens. It needs the third one — an army — to guarantee compliance with these rules if the other powers fail in doing so.

  “The purpose of projecting power via the Militia is to preserve zero-trust and egalitarian control over what are fundamentally trust-based and inegalitarian rules of law. Our rules-based order only works insofar as we can project power to preserve our access to our rules-based order. And, the only physical signature of ‘ownership’ is the power projected to preserve one’s access to property.” — Jason Lowery

  When we look at history, the government has often ended up being the actor imposing new rules and thereby violating these same property rights. In the U.S. this right is protected from corruption by the Second Amendment, which allows the people to form militias to combat the government if it becomes a bad actor in society.

  

  Source: Congress

  This concerns the protection of property rights within a self-organized state, but the same dynamics are true between states. And this is where international conflicts come from and where the importance of the military arises to defend their rule of law from outsiders.

  Military development infrastructure.

  

  Source: Jason Lowery

  “Whenever a consensus as to property rights between states could not be reached through political means, conflict erupts.” — Robert Breedlove, 2021

  “We forget how the state of ownership and chain of custody of virtually everything with mass, particularly the mass we monetize, is written in blood, not ink. This is the tragedy of good power projection and deterrence. The better we get at it, the less often we are reminded about why we need it.” — Jason Lowery

  Carl von Clausewitz, a Prussian general and military theorist of the 19th century stated: “War is merely the continuation of policy with other means.” So to understand the importance of the military having a hegemony we need to understand why wars happen.

  As one of the most important classical strategic thinkers of history, he examined the nature of war and defined it with this trinity:

  War is made of the same “blind natural forces” of “primordial violence” observed in nature.

  It contains “the play of chance and probability” that rewards “creative spirits.”

  It is a calculated instrument of national policy used to solve political disputes.

  This means that the survival of the fittest, the creative spirits that are in the search beyond something greater than them and with a clear purpose to achieve it, are the ones that translated into governments and have become the superpowers that are influencing everything around them because they have become the best at projecting power.

  “Moreover, winning this brute-force physical power game is not exclusively dependent on finding ways to amass larger quantities of power; it’s also about finding different strategies for projecting power in increasingly more creative ways.

  And when we can’t trust the judge because we don’t respect their judgment, war gives nations access to an independent courtroom with a perfectly impartial judge who cannot be manipulated by emotion or corrupted by false interpretations. War is the judge of last resort, delivering incorruptible judgment and a very decisive ruling based on brute-force physical power.” — Jason Lowery

  This is the judge in the rise and fall of civilizations and superpowers. And when new technology arises, the hegemony of the power that rejects it suffers the consequences and falls apart.

  Think of the Middle Ages, and one of the first things that probably leaps to mind for us is castles. Those immense, strongly fortified structures that were the power bases of their day. Gunpowder would change all of that, as the shattering of the walls of Constantinople demonstrated.

  

  Constantinople Harbor painting: Cobija/CC BY-SA 4.0/Public domain

  Picture yourself in Constantinople, which was seen at the time as the ultimate metropolis, the ultimate object of desire; and the Ottoman Turks were determined to capture it. It is the year 1452. Orban the engineer, an artillery expert, is working in Constantinople and goes to Emperor Constantine XI and his armies to offer them his newest invention; a dreaded weapon, a monster cannon using gunpowder to protect the city from outside invaders. But the Emperor ran out of money and couldn’t buy it from him. So Orban goes to the Turks, who couldn’t realistically reject it, and, at a better price, offers it to them.

  

  The monstrous cannon, constructed by Orban.

  Jumping ahead, it is now Easter Monday, April 2, 1453, a year later. The young Ottoman sultan, Mehmet II, and his armies are in Constantinople to begin the siege of the city. The monstrous cannon, constructed by Orban the engineer, had to be hauled more than a hundred miles to the besieged city. The largest cannon ever, 27 feet long with the ability to shoot a 1,500-pound stone ball at the defenses of the beleaguered city, is now in position. With deafening thunder, the cannon fired. This weapon pounded the walls of Constantinople and eventually broke them down, allowing the Ottoman army to breach the city.

  In addition to this monster, many other smaller cannons continued the bombardment. This was the sound of a military revolution, making stone walls, towers and battlements largely obsolete. It would devastate the certainties, traditions and way of life of the medieval age.

  The city of Constantinople fell on May 29, 1453, eight weeks after the first siege. And the key to the Ottoman Turks conquering Constantinople was the cannon constructed by Orban the engineer, a professional artillery master.

  “Keep your sword in front of you. Your swords and your shields are fully sufficient and will prove very effective in battle.” — What Emperor Constantine XI probably said during the final siege of Constantinople.

  Those last words would have been a lie because they couldn’t defend themselves from the cannons unless they would have bought them the year prior to the siege. This is an important history lesson because the last innovation in power projection was nuclear weapons. We saw what they are capable of in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. If used, the outcome is mutually assured destruction of humanity. And the countries that have them became the new world superpowers that no one wants to attack because the cost of it may be irreparable. These countries are China, Russia and the world superpower hegemon, the U.S.. We have some other exceptions with nuclear weapons like North Korea, but they don’t have the influence of these three countries throughout the world.

  Yet, another power projection technology arrived in 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto, inspired by Adam Back’s paper “Hashcash – A Denial Of Service Countermeasure”, built “Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system,” A network with a cost function that brings a challenge to its miners to be able to create tokens we call satoshis. By the proof-of-work mechanism, miners have to solve a challenge every 10 minutes to be able to validate Bitcoin transactions, and by doing so they receive bitcoin as a reward. Miners need to connect their specialized computers like Antminer’s S19 Pro in order to generate valid blocks.

  This cost function has also a mathematical succession to impose a cost if someone wants to attack the network:

  The Bitcoin halving formula.

  

  Fuente: Blog.lopp.net

  When the Bitcoin network was released, miners started receiving 50 bitcoin per block, which was mined every 10 minutes. Every 210,000 blocks bitcoin rewards will be cut in half, which happens approximately every four years until we reach 32 halvings (”halving” is the term referring to the Bitcoin rewards cut by half), which is expected to happen in the year 2140. We are now in the third halving, during which miners are receiving 6.25 bitcoin per block.

  If someone wants to attack the Bitcoin network, he or she would need to have a 51% majority of the hash rate. If, despite major roadblocks preventing such an event, a person does have this majority, the Bitcoin full nodes around the world would then have to validate and accept these new attacker blocks, which they are not incentivized to do so. Not to mention, this 51% attempt to attack the Bitcoin network would take approximately $6.7 billion per year.

  The proof-of-work mechanism imposes a physical cost to any belligerent agent that wants to corrupt the network. Using electrical power via their computers, they are using electrical brute force physical power instead of kinetic one like the military’s gunpowder. This is a continuation of the power projection game but in cyberspace, now done by protecting our purely digital property and energy, which we call Bitcoin. Miners are a continuation of our military power.

  What are the implications of this? Jason Lowery expresses it as follows and is making a great thesis called “Softwar: Bitcoin And The Future Of Our National Strategic Defense.”

  Lowery illustrates here:

  “We cannot forget how history plays out. We cannot forget that power is everything if we want to defend what we hold valuable. Hopefully, we can convince the people who are in charge of policy making. This is the goal of my research. They should at least take Bitcoin mining seriously because we don’t want to be like the end of Constantinople. We want to be the superpower of the future. If this is the power projection play, cyber. If this is how you achieve zero trust egalitarian control over cyber property, we want to posture this country to continue to be a superpower.”

  The U.S. has become the world superpower through its military force and the use of its currency, the U.S. dollar, as the world reserve money in the world. They managed to secure this after getting out of the gold standard in 1971 and following that with the petrodollar system.

  Why is this important?

  After the U.S. sanctions against Russia removing them from the SWIFT system, now every country is asking themselves these questions:

  “Can I trust my savings in the banking system?

  …

  If I go against the U.S., could I be thrown out of the SWIFT system as well?

  …

  How can we protect our property and sovereignty from the influence of this superpower?”

  They do so by building their military kinetically and electrically so that they can impose a cost on any attacker that wants to inflict their rules.

  The power projection game is a natural law that has existed for millions of years and is now evolving. Now, the U.S. has to make a smart move if it wants to maintain its role as the most powerful nation in the world.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 19:40

• Most Americans In Over 25 Years Suffer 'Real' Pay Cut Under Biden Admin; Fed Report Shows
  Most Americans In Over 25 Years Suffer ‘Real’ Pay Cut Under Biden Admin; Fed Report Shows

  As The Wall Street Journal recently reported “…vast numbers of Americans find their cost of living is rising faster than the income they’re bringing home,” under the Biden administration.

  

  How ‘vast’?

  Well The Dallas Fed just issued a report showing that, rather shockingly, a majority of employed workers’ real (inflation-adjusted) wages have failed to keep up with inflation in the past year.

  For these workers, The Dallas Fed finds that the median decline in real wages is a little more than 8.5 percent…

  

  All individuals to the left of the dashed line experienced wage growth that was less than the CPI inflation rate – that is 53.4% of all Americans.

  And, taken together, these outcomes appear to be the most severe faced by employed workers over the past 25 years…

  

  While this is all Putin’s fault – or price-gouging retail gas station owners – we do note The Dallas Fed researchers conclusion perhaps explains why the Democrats face an uphill battle into the Midterms… “While the past 25 years have witnessed episodes that show either a greater incidence or larger magnitude of real wage declines, the current time period is unparalleled in terms of the challenge employed workers face.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 19:20

• Democrats Attack Lake As 'Extremist' As 2024 Republicans Flock To Her
  Democrats Attack Lake As ‘Extremist’ As 2024 Republicans Flock To Her

  Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Wire,

  It is a busy week for Kari Lake and for Republicans who harbor White House ambitions. Several are more than eager to share the stump with the Arizona gubernatorial candidate, a fact that Democrats believe underscores their arguments about the “ultra MAGA” right and the rise of GOP extremism.

  

  Tuesday morning in Scottsdale, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem will have coffee with Lake and her supporters. The next afternoon in the Phoenix suburbs, Lake will share the stage with Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Former President Donald Trump arrives Sunday to host a rally in the town of Prescott Valley.

  Some have already stumped for Lake, such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in August. Others have promised they will, like Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, but haven’t yet put a date on the calendar.

  “Why is it a surprise that Republicans are helping Republicans?” a Noem spokesman asked RealClearPolitics before getting a plug in for the candidate: “South Dakota is proving that freedom gets results, and Kari Lake will bring the same principles to Arizona.”

  But Lake isn’t a generic Republican candidate. A longtime former Phoenix television anchorwoman who routinely excoriates her former profession, she has called for the 2020 presidential election to be decertified, condemned the vaccine mandates as government overreach, and aggressively mixed it up with regional and national reporters alike. In short, Lake is a Republican after Trump’s heart. Other politicians, despite the criticism, want in.

  The race between Lake and Democratic nominee Katie Hobbs remains a tossup. In a state Biden narrowly won, the RealClearPolitics Average has the Republican out front with a slim 2.2-point lead., so it would be on the national radar anyway. But Lake, who brings an undeniable energy to the stump, adds a heightened level of controversy to the mix.

  “Kari Lake is as extreme as they come – from touting Arizona’s 1901 abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest to endorsing Donald Trump’s Big Lie that incited an attack on our Capitol,” DNC spokesperson Ammar Moussa told RCP. “It’s no surprise that national Republicans are flocking to Arizona to embrace Lake and echo her ultra-MAGA agenda because this is exactly what the Republican Party stands for today.”

  Democrats and President Biden are eager to make the midterms a referendum on what they see as GOP extremism, rather than the economy or inflation where the White House remains underwater in polling. And while Biden and his aides haven’t singled out Lake, they have happily pointed to abortion restrictions, in particular a national ban proposed by Sen. Lindsey Graham and backed by former Vice President Mike Pence, as examples of the rightward shift of the Republican Party.

  “If you are not with where the majority of Americans are, that is extreme,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told RCP last month. “That is an extreme way of thinking.”

  Lake has repeatedly denied the 2020 election, calling for the outcome of that contest to be decertified more than a year later. Traditional conservatives point to those statements while urging 2024 contenders to stay away from Arizona. Henry Olson, a conservative columnist at the Washington Post, wrote this summer that “nothing defines Lake more than her embrace of election denial” and begged Arizona Republicans not to nominate her. After she won that nomination and Virginia’s governor announced plans travel to the state, a National Review op-ed warned Youngkin to “hew closely to the lane he has staked out for himself” because “Trump sycophants are clogging up the rest of the road.”

  Yet, the enthusiasm for Lake is undeniable in the GOP grassroots where her belligerence toward the media is not seen as a drawback. Lake has said that if elected she would enforce Arizona’s bygone abortion ban, a law on the books before Roe v. Wade was passed a half-century ago. It prohibited abortions and criminalized abortionists. When pressed on her position, Lake said she supports “saving as many lives as possible” and then turned the question back on the reporter.

  “What I really want to know, and I’ve been waiting, I tune into you guys all the time, I want to know where Katie Hobbs stands. I never hear you guys ask her that,” Lake said.

  “Let me tell you where she stands. She supports abortion right up until birth and after birth. She supports that if a baby survives a botched abortion that that baby die on a cold metal tray. And none of you ever try to get her to talk about her stance,” the candidate continued.

  A clip of the exchange went viral. Cruz shared the video on Twitter and said Monday “This is how it’s done.”

  It is an open question whether that kind of rhetoric does more to get Arizona voters to the polls or animate the online conservatives. For now, regardless of controversy, potential presidential contenders are eager to associate with Lake who is becoming a rising star on the right.

  “Kari Lake does as much to help Ted Cruz, Kristi Noem, or Glen Youngkin in Arizona as they do to help her,” said Barrett Marson, an Arizona GOP strategist. “It’s mutually beneficial for some of these candidates to come here and stand next to Lake. Whether they add to her vote total, it may not matter, they are still associating themselves with a very popular Republican candidate.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 19:00

• Air Force Scrambles Jets After North Korea Flies 12 Warplanes Near Inter-Korean Border
  Air Force Scrambles Jets After North Korea Flies 12 Warplanes Near Inter-Korean Border

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  At least 12 North Korean military planes flew in formation close to the South Korean border on Thursday, prompting U.S. allies to scramble dozens of fighter jets.

  

  A group of eight fighter jets and four bombers operated by North Korea flew in formation near the inter-Korean air boundary at around 2 p.m. local time, officials with the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff told Yonhap. They are believed to have carried out air-to-surface military drills, the officials said.

  In response, South Korea mobilized 30 fighter jets and scrambled them to near where North Korea carried out its drills, authorities told Yonhap.

  South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff told news outlets that the 12 North Korean warplanes “flew in squadron this afternoon in the South Korean side … to stage a protest.”

  “Reportedly, North Korea’s Air Force has not been able to train properly due to the scarcity of fuel, it is extremely unusual for North Korea to have flown 8 fighter jets and 4 bombers,” Cheong Seong-Chang, the head of the Center for North Korean Studies at the Sejong Institute, told ABC News.

  North Korea has previously sent military aircraft near the border, but Yonhap news agency said this is likely the first time it has mobilized so many warplanes for such a provocative flight and firing exercises.

  Tensions

  Tensions have risen sharply on the Korean Peninsula amid North Korea’s recent barrage of missile tests prompted South Korea, the United States, and Japan to conduct joint drills in response.

  Earlier Thursday, North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles toward its eastern waters. The launches came after the United States redeployed an aircraft carrier near the Korean Peninsula in response to North Korea’s launch of a nuclear-capable missile over Japan earlier this week.

  

  A TV screen shows a file image of a North Korean missile launch during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, on Sept. 28, 2022. (Ahn Young-joon/AP Photo)

  U.S., South Korean, and Japanese destroyers launched joint drills Thursday off the Korean Peninsula’s east coast to hone their abilities to search, track, and intercept North Korean ballistic missiles, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

  Also, the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier group returned to the sea east of the Korean Peninsula on Wednesday to stage a naval exercise with Japan and South Korea

  President Yoon Suk-Yeol noted tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high, but he pledged that Seoul would remain cautious.

  “Since the situation is not easy to deal with, the USS Ronald Reagan returned to our waters at around 8 p.m. yesterday,” Yoon said, reported the Korean Times.

  “The public would be worried about the current security circumstances, but the government will not miss a single step in protecting the people based on the strong South Korea-U.S. alliance and the security cooperation between Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo.”

  

  North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un (L) and sister Kim Yo Jong attend the Inter-Korean Summit at the Peace House in Panmunjom, South Korea on April 27, 2018. (Korea Summit Press Pool/Getty Images)

  North Korean Threat

  South Korea will face “extermination” if it “adopts military confrontation” against North Korea, top North Korean official Kim Yo Jong said in a threat earlier this week.

  “In case south Korea adopts military confrontation against us, our nuclear combat forces are inevitably obliged to carry out its mission,” Kim, the high-ranking sister of dictator Kim Jong Un, said. “If the situation develops to such an extent, terrible attack would be mounted and the south Korean army would have no other choice but to suffer tragic lot of extermination.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 18:40

• Hundreds Of Thousands Of Americans Sought Medical Care After COVID-19 Vaccination: CDC Data
  Hundreds Of Thousands Of Americans Sought Medical Care After COVID-19 Vaccination: CDC Data

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Hundreds of thousands of Americans sought medical care after getting a COVID-19 vaccine, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data released on Oct. 3.

  

  Some 782,900 people reported seeking medical attention, emergency room care, and/or hospitalization following COVID-19 vaccination. Another 2.5 million people reported needing to miss school, work, or other normal activities as a result of a health event after getting a COVID-19 vaccine.

  The reports were made to the CDC’s V-safe program, a new vaccine safety monitoring system to which users can report issues through smartphones.

  The CDC released the data to the Informed Consent Action Network (ICAN) after being sued over not producing the data when asked by the nonprofit. ICAN posted a dashboard summarizing the data.

  “It took numerous legal demands, appeals, and two lawsuits, and over a year, but the CDC finally capitulated and agreed to a court order requiring them to do what they should have done from day one, release the V-safe data to the public,” Aaron Siri, a lawyer representing ICAN in the case, told The Epoch Times in an email.

  About 10 million people utilized V-safe during the period of time the data covers: Dec. 14, 2020, to July 31, 2022. About 231 million Americans received at least one vaccine doses during that time.

  The V-safe users reported about 71 million symptoms.

  The most commonly reported symptoms were chills (3.5 million), swelling (3.6 million), joint pain (4 million), muscle or body aches (7.8 million), headache (9.7 million), fatigue (12.7 million), and general pain (19.5 million).

  About 4.2 million of the symptoms were of severe severity.

  Users of V-safe filled in data for about 13,000 infants younger than two, reporting over 33,000 symptoms, including pain, loss of appetite, and irritability.

  The data produced so far by the CDC does not include free-text responses, according to ICAN. The data covered fields where users checked boxes.

  ICAN, founded by film producer Del Bigtree, said that the newly revealed data “reveals shocking information that should have caused the CDC to immediately shut down its COVID-19 vaccine program,” citing the percentage of people who reported needing to get care or missing school, work, or other normal activities, as well as the reported adverse events.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 18:20

• DACA Ruled Illegal After Appeals Court Cites 'Severe Deficiencies'
  DACA Ruled Illegal After Appeals Court Cites ‘Severe Deficiencies’

  A federal appeals court on Wednesday ruled that the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program is unlawful.

  

  The program was designed to shield certain immigrants known colloquially as “anchor babies” from deportation.

  In its ruling, the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed a July 2021 decision by a Texas federal judge, US District Judge Andrew Hanen, who declared DACA illegal and blocked new applications, while allowing current beneficiaries to continue receiving protection.

  The 5th Circuit maintained the same policy, and sent the case back to Hanen so he can review a revised set of rules that the Biden administration announced in august, to determine whether those rules are legal.

  The Biden administration’s new final rule to “preserve and fortify” DACA codifies the existing policy, with limited changes, into federal regulation. It was subject to public comments as part of a formal rule-making process intended to improve its chances of surviving lawsuits challenging it. It’s set to be effective Oct. 31 to replace the 2012 Department of Homeland Security (DHS) memorandum that had created DACA. -Epoch Times

  As Jonathan Turley notes;

  Writing for a unanimous three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit (with U.S. Circuit Judges James Ho and Kurt Engelhardt), Chief Judge Priscilla Richman found that President Obama did indeed circumvent Congress and evaded the limits imposed in the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) when it enacted DACA in 2012. The court declared:

  “Under the first factor, DACA’s deficiencies are severe. The district court’s excellent opinion correctly identified fundamental substantive defects in the program. The DACA Memorandum contradicts significant portions of the INA. There is no possibility that DHS could obviate these conflicts on remand.”

  The court, however, did not change the status of the roughly 600,000 people from 150 countries enrolled under DACA. It sent the case back to the trial court for further proceedings.

  The Biden Administration fought to block any judicial review by challenging the standing of Texas to bring the action. However, it did little to refute the claims of injury raised by the state, including an expert who estimated that DACA recipients overall impose a cost of more than $250,000,000 on Texas per year and another $533,000,000 annually in costs to local Texas communities.

  In addition, the court noted that:

  “Texas contends that the rescission of DACA would cause some recipients to leave, thereby reducing the financial burdens on the State. It cites a survey of over three thousand DACA recipients in which twenty-two percent of respondents said they were likely or very likely to leave the country if DACA ended.130 The Government presents evidence that many recipients would remain without DACA, but that does not controvert Texas’s showing that some would leave.”

  The Fifth Circuit also rejected the common claim that this is nothing more than the exercise of prosecutorial discretion not to prosecute cases:

  “As our court held in DAPA, “‘[a]lthough prosecutorial discretion is broad, it is not “unfettered.”’ Declining to prosecute does not transform presence deemed unlawful by Congress into lawful presence and confer eligibility for otherwise unavailable benefits based on that change.”

  Even if the INA were ambiguous, DACA would fail at step two because it is an unreasonable interpretation of the INA. Like DAPA, DACA “undoubtedly implicates ‘question[s] of deep “economic and political significance” that [are] central to this statutory scheme; had Congress wished to assign that decision to an agency, it surely would have done so expressly.’”

  There is no “clear congressional authorization” for the power that DHS claims.”

  U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen will now get the case back. He previously decided that the Department of Homeland Security had implemented DACA in violation of the APA.

  In response, the Biden administration has developed a new DACA rule and published it on the Federal Register to satisfy the public notice-and-comment process. The new rule is scheduled to become active on Oct. 31.

  The case could ultimately find its way to the Supreme Court but such a move could only magnify the bad precedent already created in the case for the Administration.

  *  *  *

  And according to the Daily Caller, the Biden administration says it will take legal action after the 5th Circuit decision.

  As a result of the stay that remains in place, no one who currently has #DACA will lose their protection from removal or work authorization. (2/)

  — Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas (@SecMayorkas) October 6, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 10/06/2022 – 18:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• JPMorgan Sees Oil Rising Back Over $100 If These Five Conditions Are Met…
  JPMorgan Sees Oil Rising Back Over $100 If These Five Conditions Are Met…

  The OPEC+ meeting has come and gone, with “Fist-bump bro” Biden humiliated…

  TL/DR pic.twitter.com/UQIEmYNktY

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … and the White House scrambling to save at least a little face…

  *US HAS MADE ITS VIEWS CLEAR TO OPEC MEMBERS: BLINKEN

  OPEC made its views clear to the White House as well

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … and failing.

  And so, with oil surging – even as the dollar spikes sharply higher – traders are asking two questions: i) is the drop in oil over and ii) how much higher can it get.

  Here are the answers: i) with just a few more weeks left on Biden’s SPR drain mandate, which has soaked up a record 30% of all the “emergency” oil inventory this year…

  

  … and with even less supply coming to market now, Europe about to go turbo on gas to oil switching, and China set to rebound post this month’s congress when Covid Zero will be gradually phased out, we can decisively say that the drop in oil is over.

  As for ii), we go to the head of JPM commodity strategy, Natasha Kaneva, who repeats her long-standing 4Q22 price target of $100/bbl, and says that to realize it, five key forecasted conditions need to play out:

  1. demand needs to bounce 0.9 mbd yoy in 4Q, most of that from gas to oil substitution;
  2. sanctions on Russia need to constrain supply by 600 kbd;
  3. Saudi Arabia production needs to normalize from 11 mbd in September to a sustainable 10.6-10.7 mbd pace;
  4. US SPR releases need to end in October or sooner; and
  5. the US dollar needs to stabilize.

  Kaneva concludes that if four of the above supply-demand conditions materialize, the bank’s models suggest a return to deficits in 4Q22 as supply declines (lower Russian and Saudi production and the end of SPR releases) and demand is supported by incremental gas to oil switching. Adding a stable US dollar to the deficit should result in prices once again re-testing $100 later in the quarter, according to JPMorgan.

  More in the full note available to pro subs.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 11:40

• Biden Blasts "Short-Sighted" OPEC+ Cut, Blames US Energy Firms For Surging Pump Prices
  Biden Blasts “Short-Sighted” OPEC+ Cut, Blames US Energy Firms For Surging Pump Prices

  Update (1125ET):

  The Biden administration is absolutely furious with the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, including Russia, for agreeing to slash oil production by 2 million barrels per day. 

  CNN’s Chief Congressional Correspondent Manu Raju tweeted that Biden responded to the OPEC+ cut announcement by saying he’s “concerned” and called it “unnecessary.” 

  “I need to see what the detail is. I am concerned, it is unnecessary,” Biden says of OPEC+ scaling back oil output of 2 million barrels per day

  — Manu Raju (@mkraju) October 5, 2022

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  Biden’s top national security and economic advisors expressed their disappointment in the OPEC+ production cuts via a statement: 

  The President is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. At a time when maintaining a global supply of energy is of paramount importance, this decision will have the most negative impact on low’er- and middle-income countries that are already reeling from elevated energy prices.

  The President’s work here at home, and with allies around the world, has helped to bring dowm U.S. gas prices: since the beginning of the summer, gas prices are down $1.20 – and the most common price at gas stations today is $3.29/gallon. At the President’s direction, the Department of Energy will deliver another 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the market next month, continuing the historic releases the President ordered in March.

  The President will continue to direct SPR releases as appropriate to protect American consumers and promote energy security, and he is directing the Secretar)’ of Energy to explore any additional responsible actions to continue increasing domestic production in the immediate term. The President is also calling on U.S. energy companies to keep bringing pump prices down by closing the historically large gap between wholesale and retail gas prices — so that American consumers are paying less at the pump.

  In light of today’s action, the Biden Administration will also consult with Congress on additional tools and authorities to reduce OPEC’s control over energy prices.

  Finally, today’s announcement is a reminder of why it is so critical that the United States reduce its reliance on foreign sources of fossil fuels. With the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. is nowr poised to make the most significant investment ever in accelerating the clean energy transition while increasing energy security, by increasing our reliance on American-made and American-produced clean energy and energy technologies.

  … and what tools may those be? 

  BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CONSULT WITH CONGRESS ON ADDITIONAL TOOLS AND AUTHORITIES TO REDUCE OPEC’S CONTROL OVER ENERGY PRICES -WHITE HOUSE

  Was Burisma energy guru Hunter Biden unavailable?

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2022

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  We detailed below, ahead of the announcement, the White House said the prospect of a production cut would be a “total disaster” and “hostile act.” 

  It also appears OPEC+ has made its views entirely clear to the White House as well… 

  *US HAS MADE ITS VIEWS CLEAR TO OPEC MEMBERS: BLINKEN

  OPEC made its views clear to the White House as well

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2022

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  Brent crude finds weekly support above the 100-day moving average. 

  

  Goldman Sachs’ Damien Courvalin breaks down what a 2 million barrels per day OPEC+ cut means for oil markets. 

  *  *  * 

  OPEC+ could be on the verge of one of the largest production cuts in two years, a move White House officials would undoubtedly have a ‘panic attack’ as they attempt to dissuade the 23 crude-producing countries and its allies, such as Russia, from making the cuts. 

  OPEC+ is considering cutting 2 million barrels a day, and on the smaller side, a reduction of 1-1.5 million barrels a day, delegates said. Such a move would be a blow to Washington as the Biden administration has scrambled to unleash record amounts of crude from the strategic petroleum reserve to tame soaring crude prices this summer. 

  “Higher oil prices, if driven by sizeable production cuts, would likely irritate the Biden administration ahead of US midterm elections,” Citi strategists wrote in a note. 

  Citi strategists appear correct: CNN obtained some of the draft talking points circulated by the White House to the Treasury Department this week and called the prospect of a production cut a “total disaster” and “hostile act.” 

  “There could be further political reactions from the US, including additional releases of strategic stocks,” the strategists added. They said the Biden administration could also push forward with an anti-trust bill targeting OPEC.

  But that’s not all. According to Bloomberg, White House officials are discussing possible export bans on gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum with the Energy Department. 

  People familiar with discussions said administration officials are discussing export bans of refined products with top oil industry leaders as the risk of an OPEC+ reduction could catapult fuel pump prices higher ahead of the midterm elections in November. 

  And given the resurgence in crude and wholesale gasoline prices, regular pump prices are set to soar again…

  

  Another person said the Energy Department is analyzing the economics of an export ban. Bloomberg said both people familiar with talks asked not to be identified because discussions are still private. 

  Despite Biden’s SPR drain, hitting levels not seen since 1984, the export ban could be the most controversial move yet by the desperate administration to tame pump prices ahead of the midterm elections next month. 

  

  Biden’s political emptying of the SPR has left it with a record low of just 22 days of supply…

  

  Top oil execs and industry experts have blasted the proposed export ban, saying it could backfire and result in even higher gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices, while throwing energy markets into turmoil in Europe ahead of winter. 

  In a letter to the Energy Department, Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods wrote last week that “continuing current Gulf Coast exports is essential to efficiently rebalance markets—particularly with diverted Russian supplies.” 

  “Reducing global supply by limiting US exports to build region-specific inventory will only aggravate the global supply shortfall,” Woods said. 

  On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute warned any attempt to ban exports will disrupt not just global markets but harm US national security and geopolitical standing. API continued: 

  Banning or limiting the export of refined products would likely decrease inventory levels, reduce domestic refining capacity, put upward pressure on consumer fuel prices, and alienate US allies during a time of war. For these reasons, we urge the Biden administration to take this option off the table and focus instead on working with us on policies that will strengthen US energy security and protect consumers.

  API outlined the major points from a July study via the American Council for Capital Formation about the economic impacts of a potential export ban of refined products: 

  1. An export ban could result in the shuttering of an estimated 1.3 million barrels per day of US refining capacity (7% of US total) due to trapped refinery production in the Gulf Coast. The loss of this capacity would likely strand a surplus of crude oil in the Central United States, halting important upstream energy production. 

  2. An export ban could result in higher product prices for US fuel consumers, with more than two-thirds likely to experience price increases of more than 15 cents per gallon for gasoline and 45 cents per gallon for distillates. 

  3. An export ban could cause a net loss to US GDP of more than $44 billion in 2023. 

  4. An export ban could eliminate 85,000 jobs this year and 35,000 job losses during 2023.

  “There simply is not sufficient pipeline connectivity or the range of economic shipping alternatives that would be required to transport significantly more fuel to the East Coast from refineries in the Gulf, API continued, adding, “Banning exports of fuel from the United States will not eliminate this challenge or make it easier and more affordable to supply American-refined fuel to the East Coast. Instead, by cutting into global fuel supplies, it would likely raise the cost of fuel imported into the East Coast from the global market.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 11:25

• "The Whites Of Their Eyes"
  “The Whites Of Their Eyes”

  By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

  The Whites of Their Eyes

  “Don’t Fire Until You See the Whites of Their Eyes” was allegedly the command given to soldiers at the Battle of Bunker Hill. The original intent of the order was to ensure that ammunition wasn’t wasted when the shots were unlikely to be effective.

  That has changed over time to mean “don’t act too early.”

  

  But maybe we need to go back to the original order and think about the soldiers (nervous, even scared, facing an enemy likely already firing at them) and imagine how difficult it was to stand their ground and hold their fire until the right moment.

  At Academy, many of my colleagues have faced enemy fire. I think that universally they will tell you how difficult it is. Even with intense training, team building, leadership, and so many other things designed to prepare them for that moment, it is still a difficult test.

  Which brings me to the Fed.

  The Fed has had a consistent message since Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The Fed doesn’t care about recession and they might even welcome one. They don’t care about job losses, and in fact, they are targeting job losses. They say that they will do anything to fight inflation and that they need to do more, despite:

  • Evidence that rising rates are slowing major purchases and the economy.

  • COVID related supply chain issues and fiscal stimulus created much of the inflation (which had very little to do with monetary policy).

  • Saying that it was transitory for a year or more and now acting as though it is permanent.

  • Anchoring inflation expectations both in surveys and market-based measures.

  • Ignoring their own models that acknowledge prior actions take time to show up in the data.

  • A dangerous geopolitical landscape with North Korea reminding us to pay attention to them and Iran busily working on their nuclear options (in addition to issues with Russia and China).

  • Evidence that QE and QT distort prices more than other traditional tools and unwinding them may be more impactful than thought.

  Will the Fed wait until they see the proverbial whites of their eyes, or will they blink first?

  If your legacy was Mr. Inflation or Mr. Recession, which would you go for?

  We know that the Fed has presented a unified front with the inflation fighting mantra, but does everyone really want to go down with the ship if it is sinking?

  Bottom Line

  Expect weaker data, including jobs.

  The Fed might try to stick to the hawkish rhetoric, but I expect some cracks in the messaging. The bad news is good trade is not over yet, but it needs Fed corroboration, which I expect to happen in the coming days. There will be some “sticking to the inflation fight” mantra, but just enough words will be used to keep this rally alive.

  My view remains that this will morph into “bad news is bad” after that because we’ve already started rolling the rock down the hill and have been pushing when we already should have been pulling it back.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 11:20

• Meanwhile Over At Lehman-Suisse…
  Meanwhile Over At Lehman-Suisse…

  What do credit traders know that equity traders are ignoring?

  While equity prices had risen for the last two days, dragged higher by the market’s melt-up, Credit Suisse credit risk continued to wide dramatically…

  

  For context, with CDS trading at around 373bps, the equity market (price and volatility) is implying a spread around 157bps…

  

  So either CDS is drastically too high, and/or CS stock price is too high (or implied vol too low).

  SocGen analysts wrote this morning that Credit Suisse needs to aggressively deleverage its investment banking operations, suggesting that the stock’s recent decline reflects management leaning toward retaining IB trading operations and reports of it resurrecting the First Boston name.

  Analyst Andrew Lim says capital and liquidity ratios are robust, aggressive restructuring plan can be self-funded and wouldn’t need a capital increase.

  Additionally, HSBC said Credit Suisse has no immediate concerns around liquidity and funding.

  From a more systemic risk perspective, we note that, according to Neue Zürcher Zeitung, the Swiss government could provide liquidity to struggling lender Credit Suisse Group AG, tapping a state-backed safety net for big banks it plans to introduce.

  The government voted in favor of introducing a public liquidity backstop for systemically-relevant banks in March, the newspaper said.

  Officials commissioned the ministry of finance to work out details until mid-2023.

  Specifically, the state would be granted ‘bankruptcy privilege,’ putting it first in line among creditors, to avoid losses to the public coffers in case of default.

  Even though the law would not be passed until next year, officials could move to help Credit Suisse on that basis, NZZ reports, since the Swiss government in early September also gave a credit line of 4 billion francs ($4.1 billion) to struggling electricity company Axpo Holding without a specific legal basis.

  Which may explain why professional credit traders bidding protection still.

  Finally, Reuters reports that the Swiss National Bank is monitoring the situation at Credit Suisse Group AG “closely”.

  “We are monitoring the situation,” Governing Board member Andrea Maechlersaid according to Reuters citing an interview on the sidelines of an event Wednesday.

  “They are working on a strategy due to come out at the end of October.

  Additionally, Swiss regulator Finma has already said it is monitoring the bank’s stability.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 11:07

• Turn Off CNBC And Watch Real Yields
  Turn Off CNBC And Watch Real Yields

  Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

  Investors watch CNBC and CNBC’s competitors for guidance on where the markets are going. CNBC may provide insightful commentary from very qualified investors. Still, if one is watching CNBC to figure out where markets are headed, they may be better served to turn off the TV and look to the bond market for direction.

  Today, real yields, or the bond yield less inflation expectations, helps explain the movement of many assets. If we are to form reasonable expectations for stocks, commodities, the dollar index, and gold prices, we best have an opinion on where real yields are going.

  In this article, we share evidence supporting the recent strong relationship between real yields and risk assets. We then ponder where real yields are heading to help save you the confusion of trying to follow the conflicting bullish and bearish views presented on CNBC.

  What Are Real Yields

  The real yield is the yield an investor expects to receive after inflation. Think of it as the amount of purchasing power a bondholder expects to gain or lose. The inflation figure within the calculation is based on inflation expectations which are a byproduct of the difference between TIP yields and nominal yields.

  In a free market, lenders should be compensated for lending money. The compensation in the form of interest rate should encompass the risk of non-repayment, the opportunity cost of not having the money available, and expected inflation.

  The focus of this article is primarily inflation, but risk and opportunity costs are also high.

  What Do Real Yields Tell Us?

  The graph below charts real five-year Treasury yields since 2005. The current real yield is 1.62%, the highest level since 2009. Since January 1, 2022, the real yield has risen 3.2% (from -1.58% to +1.62%). The composition of the change is important. Since the start of the year, inflation expectations have fallen by .55%, while nominal bond yields are 2.65% higher.

  

  The level of real interest rates is a sturdy gauge of the weight of Federal Reserve policy. If the Fed is treading lightly and not distorting markets, real rates should be slightly positive. The more the Fed manipulates markets from their natural rates, the more negative real rates become. –The Fed’s Ever-Growing Golden Footprint

  Real yields provide a durable gauge helping quantify the degree of Fed dovishness or hawkishness. Today, the Fed is incredibly hawkish, judging by real yields.

  Risk Assets vs. Real Yields

  Before sharing our expectations for where real yields might be in the future, it is worth showing the recent strong relationship between real yields and risk assets.

  Stocks

  Fed actions to halt inflation, including hiking interest rates and QT, reduce liquidity in the financial markets and economy. Accordingly, they are not beneficial for stock prices. When considering allocations to stocks, what matters is the degree to which they apply monetary policy.  

  The graph below shows that the recent increase in real yields is like the sharp jump in October 2008. At that time, the financial system failed, and the Fed introduced QE. In a matter of months, inflation expectations whipsawed from +2.70% to -2.40% and back to zero percent. Nominal yields fell sharply over the period.

  Today’s increase in real yields is due primarily to increasing nominal yields and less so inflation expectations. Accordingly, the increase in real yields will be much more damaging to the economy than the last time real yields were at similar levels.

  

  The following graph shows the strong inverse correlation between real yields and stock prices this year. The Y-axis of the chart pertaining to real yields is in reverse order to highlight the relationship better. The Fed is aggressively removing liquidity, and not surprisingly, stocks are heading lower.

  

  Dollar

  The U.S. dollar has surged this year against all currencies. Recently the linkage between dollar strength and bond weakness has been pronounced.

  The graph below shows the strong correlation between the dollar and real yields this year. The Fed is employing the most aggressive hawkish monetary policy among developed nations. Such policy should keep the dollar well bid, barring central banks intervening in the FX markets.

  

  Commodities

  Commodity prices and the dollar tend to be negatively correlated as most global trade in commodities occurs in U.S. dollars. When the dollar is strong, commodity prices tend to weaken and vice versa.

  Given the strong relationship between the dollar and real yields, the inverse relationship of commodities to real yields is expected. As we did in the S&P 500 graph, the graph’s Y-axis pertaining to real yields is in reverse order.

  

  Gold

  Earlier, we shared a paragraph from The Fed’s Ever-Growing Golden Footprint, which discusses how real yields are a barometer of Fed monetary policy. In particular, the article talks about the strong inverse correlation between gold and real yields, especially when real yields are negative.

  The rationale is that gold prices are largely driven by monetary policy. Gold tends to trade well when the Fed is dovish and pushes real yields below zero. Real yields should never be below zero, as lenders are being punished for lending. As such, negative real yields point to too easy a monetary policy. Given that many consider gold a substitute for money, anything that decreases the value of money is good for gold. Conversely, gold trades poorly when the Fed is hawkish and a better steward of money.

  Gold started the year well, rising about 10% as inflation rose and the Fed was relatively complacent. Real yields increased as the Fed grew increasingly hawkish, and the inverse correlation between gold and real yields grew strong. 

  

  The Million Dollar Question

  Having seen the evidence, you must think that correctly forecasting real yields is the holy grail of investing. While it does appear that way today, relationships change. That said, let’s consider where real yields may be going.

  As we showed earlier, the change in real yields is due to lower inflation expectations and much higher nominal yields. Over more extended periods, nominal yields are a function of economic growth and inflation expectations. Given that high rates are and will be a drag on economic growth and will dampen inflation, we think nominal and real yields will be headed lower over the coming months.

  The current real yield on a five-year Treasury note is 1.62%. Over the last 20 years, the actual real yield attained on five-year notes has averaged 0.47%. Accordingly, five-year yields may be trading over 1% too high.

  The scatter plot below from Fidelity charts weekly levels of the ten-year UST yield and 5×5 inflation expectations. The 5×5 inflation expectation is the implied five-year inflation rate expected five years from now. The current 5×5 inflation rate is 2.28%, similar to the current five-year implied inflation rate is 2.18%. As the graph shows, the current ten-year yield of 3.68% is 1.33% above the 2.35% trend line rate.

  

  We took Fidelity’s analysis a step further and compare the ten-year rate to the five-year implied inflation rate average and the 5×5 inflation rate. This method captures the whole ten years of inflation expectations. Since 2010, the Treasury note was 0.21% above the expected inflation rate on average. Currently, it is 1.40% above it. Bond yields are over 1% too high based on inflation expectations.

  Summary

  CNBC analysts spew all kinds of predictions. But for our precious time and money, we would rather turn off CNBC and instead consider that the future direction of yields may be the best investment advice today.

  The U.S. economy will not function with 7% mortgage rates. The Fed may keep raising rates, but the economy will falter. With it, inflation will decline. Nominal yields should fall precipitously to catch up with inflation and growth fundamentals. Real yields should follow. If so, the outlook for stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities may be brighter than it has been. Conversely, the recent dollar strength may be close to peaking.

  We end with the closing paragraph from Yields are Defying Yesterday’s Logic.

  Tried and trustworthy relationships are failing bond investors. While powerful and concerning, we think the abnormal relationships are temporary. When the supply and demand for bonds normalize, bond investors will likely realize that economic, inflation, and other factors warrant much lower yields.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 10:44

• WTI Rallies After Big Crude, Product Draws
  WTI Rallies After Big Crude, Product Draws

  Oil prices are extremely noisy this morning with OPEC+ headlines dominating price action (after prices surged 9% in the past two days in anticipation of this move by the cartel).

  “Near term OPEC has put a floor in crude,” but the 2 million barrel cut was largely priced in already on Tuesday, said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management.

  We also note that Hurricane Ian’s impact may already be affecting some of this week’s inventory, production, and implied demand after API reported unexpectedly large crude and product draws.

  API

  • Crude -1.77mm

  • Cushing +925k

  • Gasoline -3.47mm

  • Distillates -4.05mm – biggest draw since Mar 2022

  DOE

  • Crude -1.356mm (-1.00mm exp)

  • Cushing +273k

  • Gasoline -4.728mm – lowest overall inventory since 2014

  • Distillates -3.443mm

  The official DOE data confirmed API with large crude and product draws seen last week…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Gasoline stocks fell to their lowest since 2014…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  6.194mm barrels were drained from the Strategic Midterm Reserve…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  As a reminder, the SPR is now at a record low 22 days of supply…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Something else to note on US crude exports, it’s the second time ever that we’ve registered above 4m b/d on a 4-week average. 

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  So US gas prices are about to soar so Europe can have some fuel?

  Gasoline demand destruction continues to show up…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  US Crude production was flat on the previous week

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  WTI was hovering around $86.50 ahead of the official data print and rallied above $87 after the big draws…

  

  “I see some some persistence upside certainly from a supply perspective. Two million barrels a day is a substantial cut,” said Harry Altham, energy analyst for StoneX Group.

  “But of course, that doesn’t detract from the longer-term implications of demand destruction” from slowing global economies, he added.

  Finally, we note that all of this likely implies pump prices will continue rising into the MidTerms and Biden’s “tools” are running out to ‘fix’ that…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Who will he blame now?

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 10:37

• What Does OPEC's 2 Million b/d Cut Really Mean: Goldman Crunches The Numbers
  What Does OPEC’s 2 Million b/d Cut Really Mean: Goldman Crunches The Numbers

  On the surface, the OPEC+ headline cut of 2mb/d sounds very large, but the cut is from baselines and there were no revisions to the baselines… which means that to figure out the real impact of the “gross” cut one needs to net out countries which are already producing well below their quotas.

  As Goldman’s Damien Courvalin writes, given Russia is under-producing by c.1.3 mb/d versus its current quotas, it would need to be exempted for a 2mb/d cut to add up. Additionally, Russia is unlikely to allow for a quota much below its capacity. Meanwhile, the other countries in the aforementioned list have not displayed the level of capacity erosion observed in much of the rest of OPEC+.

  From this alternative perspective, Goldman believes that such a baseline adjustment is worth approximately 1.5 mb/d alone (even excluding a Russia rebasement). As such, the bank believes that the 2mb/d headline OPEC+ cut would only be implemented as an incremental 0.5 mb/d quota cut on top of such a baseline change.

  Net, this only amounts to an effective cut of 400-600 mb/d versus Goldman’s expected November/Nov-22 – Dec-23 expectations from the bank’s 27-Sep-22 balances respectively. This is very similar to the 1mb/d announced quota cut scenario from the bank’s previous report, which we discussed here.

  

  More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

  Energy Intel’s Amena Bakr confirm’s Goldman’s math:

  • Here is the answer: Adjust downward the overall production by 2 mb/d, from the August 2022 required production levels, starting November 2022 for OPEC and Non-OPEC Participating Countries
  • This means an actual cut of a little under 1 million bpd

  This means an actual cut of a little under 1 million bpd #OOTT

  — Amena Bakr (@Amena__Bakr) October 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As a bonus, here is Bloomberg commodity guru Julian Lee with his initial calculation of what the new targets would look like for key OPEC+ members (in thousand barrels a day):

  • Saudi Arabia and Russia: 10,481 from 11,004
  • UAE: 3,028 from 3,179
  • Kuwait: 2,544 from 2,811
  • Iraq: 4,430 from 4,651
  • OPEC-10: 25,421 from 26,689
  • OPEC+: 41,856 from 43,856

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 10:14

• Services Surveys Signal Q3 Recession Imminent Amid "Tightening Financial Conditions"
  Services Surveys Signal Q3 Recession Imminent Amid “Tightening Financial Conditions”

  Despite bouncing from August’s plunge, S&P Global’s Services PMI printed below 50 (in contraction) for the 3rd month in a row (at 49.3). Of course, in keeping with the idiocy, ISM Services printed 56.7 (below 56.9 in August but well above the 56.0 expected)…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  The pictures from ISM and PMI data remain mixed (as ever) with ISM data slowed in September while S&P Global rose…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Under the hood of ISM, Services Prices and New Orders slowed while employment improved…

  

  Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

  “With service sector activity declining for a third straight month in September, businesses have faced a tough third quarter. Economic growth has come under pressure from falling output in both the manufacturing and service sectors, though in both cases September has seen some encouraging signals that business conditions may be starting to improve.

  “Driving this improvement is a cooling of inflationary pressures in manufacturing supply chains, which is in turn alleviating cost growth for goods and energy in both manufacturing and service sectors, helping stimulate demand and allaying some concerns about the economic outlook.

  “The worry is that tightening financial conditions, and notably higher borrowing costs, are exerting increased cost pressures on households and businesses, as well as hitting growth in the vast financial services sector, which has seen the steepest downturns in both demand and business activity in recent months and saw yet another marked worsening of business conditions in September.

  “Furthermore, despite easing, inflationary pressures in terms of firms’ costs and average selling prices for goods and services remain elevated. With companies also reporting staffing issues and rising wages due to very tight labor market conditions, persistent inflation remains a concern at the same time that the economy appears to be struggling to regain momentum.”

  The S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 49.5 in September, notably up from 44.6 in August, but still in contraction overall as a further decline in output at service providers outweighed a slight expansion at manufacturers.

  

  But, as S&P Global concludes, hopes of greater client demand, a peaking of inflation and investment in new products drove business expectations for the year-ahead to the highest for four months.

  So we are back to ‘hope’?

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 10:06

• Looting "Will Get Progressively Worse" Amid Hurricane Ian Chaos, Sheriff Warns
  Looting “Will Get Progressively Worse” Amid Hurricane Ian Chaos, Sheriff Warns

  Authored by Lorenz Duschamps via The Epoch Times,

  As parts of Florida face a long road to recovery following extraordinary damage caused by Hurricane Ian, some people have already been taking advantage of the situation and started looting amid the chaos.

  

  William Snyder, the sheriff of Martin County, told TCPalm that he doesn’t expect looters to calm down, fearing the worst. He said looters already went on a spree of stealing and ransacking structures “very early” after the Category 4 storm made landfall in western Florida last week.

  “It was very early and some of the looting was starting already, but it will get progressively worse, I think, as people become more desperate,” Snyder, who was dispatched as part of a 15-person rapid response team on Sept. 30 to assist in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian in Charlotte County, told the publication.

  Shortly after the team’s arrival in Charlotte, officials encountered “dazed” residents, as well as several “pretty sketchy people” looking for water, food, and fuel, but nobody was arrested at the time.

  However, sometime later, Snyder received reports of people stealing gas-powered generators that were supposed to be powering traffic control devices.

  “When they bolted those down, they chained them down, they started stealing the gas out of the generators,” the sheriff told TCPalm.

  A day after the team’s arrival, they received a report about a house that was burning after the homeowner put a generator in the garage because he was so fearful that looters would steal their backup generator. The house was a total loss, Snyder said.

  “The challenge that stuck out to me the most was just how fragile society is when electricity and water go,” the sheriff added.

  “No gas, no electric, no water, and everything starts to come to a stop.”

  ‘We Have Law and Order’

  In nearby Lee County, Sheriff Carmine Marceno issued a stark warning to would-be-looters after a group of four people—including three illegal immigrants—were arrested on Sept. 29 for taking advantage of the situation.

  A warning to looters is painted on the side of a car destroyed during Hurricane Ian in Pine Island, Fla., on Oct. 3, 2022. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

  “As far as looting—we have law and order in Lee County. We have law and order in our great state of Florida, and we always will,” said Marceno.

  “Right now, we have four cases of looting, and I’m proud to say they’re behind bars where they belong. Our residents are going to be safe.”

  Marceno added that three of the arrested individuals—Robert Mena, Brandon Araya, and Stephen Araya—were illegally inside the United States while they were caught looting in Lee County.

  Lee County jail records show that Brandon Mauricio Araya, 20; Stephen Eduardo Sanchez Araya, 20; Valerie Celeste Salcedo Mena, 26; and Omar Mejia Ortiz, 33, were arrested for burglary of an unoccupied structure during a state of emergency. Ortiz also faces petit larceny charges.

  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, among other officials, have issued similar messages to would-be looters after reports emerged that people allegedly started traveling to stricken islands and ransacking properties.

  “I can tell you, in the state of Florida, you never know what may be lurking behind somebody’s home, and I would not wanna chance that if I were you, given that we’re a Second Amendment state,” DeSantis said, who noted that some Floridians have firearms.

  Some residents also “boarded up all the businesses, and there are people that wrote on their plywood, ‘you loot, we shoot,’” DeSantis added. “At the end of the day, we are not going to allow lawlessness to take advantage of this situation.”

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 09:45

• It's Geopolitics And Geoeconomics Amateur Hour At The White House Again
  It’s Geopolitics And Geoeconomics Amateur Hour At The White House Again

  By Michael Every of Rabobank

  OPEC+/RBNZ divots in BOE/RBA pivots

  Markets were already starting a bear market rally helped by the shifting (quick)sands of UK politics, where more policy U-turns may be underway; the Chancellor tried to suggest the Queen’s death might have played a role in the messy mini-budget launch; and one journalist notes: “This Tory conference is so amazingly messy I still can’t believe it’s real. Ministers going completely rogue, MPs barely here but still throwing shade left, right & centre, Tory members downing champagne while half laughing/half crying “we’re all f****d”. It’s WILD.” That Keystone Cops dynamic had already led to the desperate “not QE or MMT!” actions of the BOE.

  Then the RBA only hiked 25bp, not the 50bp 80% priced in, front-running even its own dovish pivot. “The Board is committed to returning inflation to the 2–3% range over time. Today’s increase in interest rates will help achieve this goal and further increases are likely to be required over the period ahead,” said the Governor, knowing full well his actions would be taken dovishly and bring down expectations of the rates peak to around 3% – versus around 8% expected inflation this year; above 2% inflation until 2025; a red-hot labour market; and a government more pro-labour than capital for once.  

  While pivoting he noted, “inflation in Australia is too high. Global factors explain much of this high inflation, but strong domestic demand relative to the ability of the economy to meet that demand is also playing a role… national income is being boosted by a record level of the terms of trade. The labour market is very tight and many firms are having difficulty hiring workers… Wages growth is continuing to pick up from the low rates of recent years…. Given the tight labour market and the upstream price pressures, the Board will continue to pay close attention to both the evolution of labour costs and the price-setting behaviour of firms in the period ahead.”

  So why pivot? “The expected moderation in inflation next year reflects the ongoing resolution of global supply-side problems, recent declines in some commodity prices and the impact of rising interest rates.” In other words, the RBA still thinks inflation is transitory(!); and the focus is, out of character, on the rest of the world – ‘A big economy did it and ran away.’  

  However, this was really all about housing: “Higher inflation and higher interest rates are putting pressure on household budgets, with the full effects of higher interest rates yet to be felt in mortgage payments. Consumer confidence has also fallen and housing prices are declining after the earlier large increases. Working in the other direction, people are finding jobs, gaining more hours of work and receiving higher wages.” In short, everyone has a job; wages are going up; but after further crazy upwards movement, housing prices are finally coming down… so time to pivot. The Bank also rolled out its “Don’t Panic!” trick to explain why housing will be OK: “many households have large financial buffers.” Yes, the ones *without* large mortgages! Everyone in markets can see it’s the Reserve Bank of Austr-house-lia.

  However, despite an initial drop, AUD was not hit too hard, just as GBP has rallied in recent sessions. There is a key message in that.

  While the UK and Australia were pushed off their hawkish paths by asset prices, the real focus is the US. In both cases the initial market reaction was to push *US* yields and the *US dollar* lower, pricing for a Fed pivot. If it doesn’t, then we will see the UK and Australia punished for not being to keep up the pace, with higher yields and/or much lower currencies for both.

  On that front, we got an important US data point in the form of the JOLTS jobs number, which saw the largest fall since 2020. That will register with the Fed. However, it cannot be looked at in isolation as presented by some: it has to be set alongside the incredible surge in jobs on offer ahead of it, which was not the pattern in 2020. Even after this decline there are still 1.67 jobs on offer for every worker. Even presuming the labour market lags, does that say pivot now when the Fed has made clear it is expecting to see higher unemployment, not a lower ratio of excess jobs available, in order to bring inflation down? Hardly!

  That said, we got a speech from non-voter San Fran Fed Daly which, while excoriating inflation as a “corrosive disease” also notably added, “We have to acknowledge and understand the impact that raising the interest rate or dollar appreciation against other currencies has on global growth and on global financial conditions, because ultimately, those things feed back into onto the US.”

  However, as I keep underlining, the real world is not playing ball. Indeed, alongside the lower yields and US dollar in recent sessions we have seen higher commodity prices. Moreover, besides that simple dynamic we have a geopolitical one.  

  OPEC+ meets today, and reportedly Russia and Saudi Arabia are combining to cut output by as much as 2m barrels a day. In other words, supply destruction to match demand destruction; so energy inflation even into a recession. And higher energy is already seeing supply destruction in fertilizers; with a lag, that will mean supply destruction in food; and then workers will demand higher wages so they can still eat.

  CNN reports the White House is “having a spasm and panicking” as the most senior US energy, economic, and foreign policy officials lobby against production cuts, which some draft talking points frame as a “total disaster” that could be taken as a “hostile act.” Indeed, the US is reportedly “taking the gloves off,” and language used also includes the phrase that: “There is great political risk to your reputation and relations with the US and the west if you move forward.” What is the US going to do? Invade? Encourage the Saudis to deal more with Russia and China, reducing supply to the West even more? It is geopolitics and geoeconomics amateur hour (again)!

  On which note, the EU has agreed on its Russia oil price cap, the ‘details’ of which are to be released today. One part is clear: no more EU technology to help Russian energy production, which will reduce output over time – and so push prices higher. The rest is so unclear it looks like an inverse South Park Underpants Gnomes strategy: “Step one: Russian oil price cap – Step two: ? – Step three: No Russian profit.” Greece has already agreed a carve-out for its tankers, apparently.

  Relatedly, Russia is said to be moving towards either embracing all forms of crypto for payment, or a digital RUB. How do you think the US is going to respond? More light touch Wall Street crypto regulation and lower Fed Funds to allow everyone thinking of moving back into the labour market to stay at home and trade NFTs of monkeys wearing sunglasses again? Even Kim Kardashian just got slapped with a $1.2m fine by the SEC for plugging a crypto asset.

  Today also saw the RBNZ hike 50bp to 3.50% and note they had discussed a 75bp move, like major central banks, not a 25bp one, like the Reserve Bank of Austr-house-lia. The NZD gained 0.9% on this news and linked comments that the RBNZ is worried about the inflation pass through from a weaker currency – which Australia should note well. (And by the way, New Zealand has a housing market they very much love too.)

  Even back on the BOE, all the GBP2.22bn of Gilts it was offered at its Tuesday daily reverse auction aimed at stabilising markets were rejected. FinTwit gossip adds: “institutional Gilt broker I know, on why BoE not buying Gilts… “BOE insisting on QT commencement on the 31st Oct (which I think is ridiculous while tightening hard at the Front). BOE aren’t willing to buy these longs at Mid. All just a backstop to contain systemic risk.”

  Sorry for the structural divot in your BOE/RBA pivot, Mr. Market.

  Finally, Elon Musk Twitter bait-and-switched away from his ‘AI robot’, which looks like a geriatric Terminator in a nursing home that needs other robots to look after it, towards a peace-deal between Russia and Ukraine, before pivoting back to Twitter which –surprise-surprise, having signed a water-tight legally-binding agreement with him– he will be buying after all. Let’s see what now happens to Western political and market debate: it can’t get much worse to be honest.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 09:25

• TWTR Slides After Report Musk, Twitter Have Not Yet Reach Agreement To End Litigation
  TWTR Slides After Report Musk, Twitter Have Not Yet Reach Agreement To End Litigation

  Update: for all those who sold TWTR stock yesterday, congrats.

  Smart https://t.co/cFGl1816Vu

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  To everyone else, the rollercoaster is back, with Reuters reporting that – shockingly –  there is actually no deal actual deal to end the litigation:

  • ELON MUSK, TWITTER LEGAL TEAM HAVE NOT YET REACHED AGREEMENT TO END LITIGATION – SOURCES FAMILIAR WITH THE LITIGATION

  As a reminder, one of the conditions Musk required for the deal to go through at its original terms, was for trial to be adjourned. And now that appears to be a hang up.

  

  * * *

  Following Tuesday’s Musk shocker which sent Twitter stock soaring more than 20%, TWTR has slumped in premarket trading with shares nearly 106% below Elon Musk’s $54.20 offer price as analysts point out the “unknowns” surrounding the transaction. While they expect the deal to go through, further challenges lie ahead for Musk as he will now need to fix the social media firm’s issues.

  Courtesy of Bloomberg, here is a snapshot of sellside reactions:

  MKM Partners (neutral, PT $48)

  • “If both parties agree (again) on the proposal, a trial would be averted, and Twitter could potentially cease to be a public company by the end of next week”
  • However, this isn’t a done deal “as there are no guarantees that Musk would still follow through with his proposal and close the transaction”

  Stifel (hold, PT $30)

  • This is yet another surprising twist in the ongoing back and forth between Twitter and Musk, “but it’s likely the last change of course”

  If Twitter’s next phase does not include some form of advertising, that might be a marginal positive for some social platforms like SNAP and PINS

  Citi (neutral, PT raised to deal price of $54.20 from $40)

  • While there are still some unknowns around the transaction, the deal “is now likely to close which is also likely to improve overall operations going forward”

  Wells Fargo (equal weight, PT $54.20)

  • Musk embarking on significant changes to TWTR supporting more expansive speech rights, could likely have a negative impact on brand advertising spend
  • Marketers could then reduce brand spend on the platform and redeploy experimental ad budgets on emerging short-form and long-form video advertising platforms like TikTok, META’s Reels, GOOGL’s YouTube Shorts, SNAP’s Spotlight, PINS’ Idea Pins

  Morningstar

  • Under Musk, Twitter could “experience mixed reactions from large advertisers who likely will assume the content on the platform will become even more heavily weighted toward politics”
  • On the other hand, Musk’s strong following could benefit TWTR’s subscription revenue model

  Wedbush (neutral, PT raised to deal price of $54.20 from $50)

  • The deal will mostly likely close in the next few weeks “with minimal speed bumps to overcome once the Twitter Board officially accepts and removes the lawsuit in Delaware Court”
  • Buying Twitter was “the easy part of this deal,” the hard part will be fixing it with monetization and subscriber engagement

  Truist Securities (hold, PT $43)

  • While the take-out price is a material premium to peers, “relative to expectations and to peers, TWTR’s results in 2Q22 trailed materially”
  • “With the deal effectively concluded, the heavy lifting is next”
  • Musk will now have to fix the “business, which has been challenged across products, ad formats and user engagement”

  Baird Equity Research (neutral, PT $54)

  • Raising our price target to reflect the intention to consummate the deal

  CFRA (hold, PT raised to $54 from $42)

  • The deal could close “very soon”
  • “Musk’s first order of business will need to be focused on repairing a damaged employee base and finding the right leadership team”

  Of course, the situation remains fluid and as we said yesterday…

  How long until Musk changes his mind this time

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … Musk may change his mind at any moment.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 09:22

• Oil Rallies As OPEC+ Agrees Historic 2 Million B/D Production Cut, Shuns Biden
  Oil Rallies As OPEC+ Agrees Historic 2 Million B/D Production Cut, Shuns Biden

  As was well-telegraphed – and despite The White House’s sabre-rattling – OPEC+ JMMC has recommended the cartel to go ahead with a historic 2 million b/d production cut.

  One delegate has confirmed this cut is from baseline levels. This means the production cut is less than 2 million b/d directly since current actual production levels are already below quota. However, it is still a sizable cut.

  As ArgusMedia reports, the extent to which any cut to November quotas will reduce actual supply will depend on how OPEC+ members fare in meeting their targets this month and how the cut is distributed.

  The group as a whole fell 3.58mn b/d below its collective ceiling in August, according to an average of secondary source estimates.

  If agreed by ministers at their meeting in Vienna today, it will mark the biggest cut since the group reduced its collective quota by 9.7mn b/d during the early stages of the Covid crisis in 2020.

  WTI is extending gains on the news, rallying back above $87 at 7-week highs…

  

  This is not good news for the American consumer as gas prices are about to start accelerating again…

  

  And that is not good news for President Biden’s approval rating…

  

  We await The White House statement ‘mulling’ a reaction to this clear dissent of the unipolar order.

  

  As we have detailed recently, this is a direct message to The Fed and The White House…

  Food for thought…OPEC can cut more/longer than Biden administration can release from SPR. This OPEC meeting a wakeup call for US politicians that energy inflation is going to be STICKY.

  — Dan Pickering (@pickeringenergy) October 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 09:11

• Show-Of-Force Fail: South Korean Missile Malfunctions And Crashes, Causing Panic
  Show-Of-Force Fail: South Korean Missile Malfunctions And Crashes, Causing Panic

  What was supposed to be a South Korean show of force ended in humiliation on Wednesday as a ballistic missile malfunctioned and crashed near a South Korean city, triggering panic. There were no injuries — beyond those to the military’s own reputation.

  According to the Associated Press, citing South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, a short-range missile blew up on an air force base near the coastal city of Gangneung. South Korean authorities said the warhead did not explode. 

  Video purporting to show the fiery aftermath circulated on social media: 

  South Korea bombed its own military base when its missile launch failed. pic.twitter.com/TsIIH5SD1N

  — Sentletse 🇷🇺🇿🇦 (@Sentletse) October 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The failed missile launch was part of a broader saber-rattling response to North Korea’s successful launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japanese airspace on Tuesday.

  That missile demonstrated a record distance capability for a North Korean missile. It was said to have traveled some 2,800 miles, with analysts saying it has the range to hit the bases on the U.S. territory of Guam.  

  In their ensuing show-of-force drills, U.S. F-16 and South Korean F-15 fighter jets on Tuesday hit an island target off South Korea’s west coast, using Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) bombs. Wednesday brought surface-to-surface missile launches. 

  The embarrassment over the misfire was compounded by the South Korean military’s inept handling of the incident, reports AP:  

  The explosion and subsequent fire panicked and confused residents of the coastal city of Gangneung, who were already uneasy over the increasingly provocative weapons tests by rival North Korea.

  Their concern that it could be a North Korean attack only grew as the military and government officials provided no explanation about the explosion for hours.

  Posting on Facebook, legislator Kwon Seong-dong, who represents Gangneung, said a “weapons system operated by our blood-like taxpayer money ended up threatening our own people.” He also assailed the military’s prolonged silence: “It was an irresponsible response. They don’t even have an official press release yet.”

  

  The errant missile was a Hyunmoo-2, which the Center for Strategic and International Studies describes as a short-range, solid-fueled ballistic missile. Fired from road-mobile launchers, recent variants are about 42 feet long, carry high explosive payloads and have a range of 500 miles. 

  

  The U.S.-South Korean show of force will soon be buttressed by the presence an aircraft carrier: The USS Ronald Reagan is being deployed to the waters east of the peninsula. 

  The UN Security Council is set to meet on Wednesday to discuss North Korea’s missile launch. With China and Russia resisting a public discussion of the issue, it’s unclear if they will instead meet privately. Either way, there’s little expectation of a substantial response. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 08:55

• OPEC's Counterattack…
  OPEC’s Counterattack…

  Via Adventures In Capitalism,

  The Federal Reserve has been attacking inflation. The problem is that after printing trillions of dollars, they’re ill-equipped to succeed at their task. Partly, this is because all that cash has to go somewhere and partly this is because their mandate does not extend into ensuring that global energy production expands. While Owners’ Equivalent Rent and wages have remained elevated, those are often seen as the “good” sort of inflation—or at least the benign sort. Meanwhile, all other forms of inflation tend to be characterized as “bad” and frequently the “bad” inflation is caused by elevated energy prices, which then increase the costs of producing and transporting everything else. Therefore, despite the Fed ignoring the inflation they caused for well over a year, when oil cleared $100 a barrel, the Fed finally felt that they had no choice but to do something.

  The problem is that the only ways to reduce the price of oil are to produce more of it or consume less of it. It’s hard to produce more when the President and many of his powerful oligarch buddies are aggressively intervening to ensure that it’s difficult to expand or finance production. Meanwhile, no one wants to invest when there are constant threats of excess profits taxes, carbon taxes, expropriation and price caps. Since the obvious solution has been made so impossible, the Fed has been forced to embark on a plan to reduce global energy consumption.

  

  How do you reduce oil consumption?? Well, it seems that their plan is to create a global depression. So, after a decade of paying lip-service to “inclusive economics” and “closing the wealth gap,” the Fed has been forced to pivot and destroy the finances of the world’s poor, in the hopes that they’ll consume less oil. For the past half-year, this plan has unfolded with the usual crescendo of mini-temblors as global growth screeches to a halt and over-leveraged institutions find themselves on the wrong side of asset depreciation. The Fed is now well on its way towards creating an economic crisis that will reduce global energy consumption—consequences be damned.

  

  Naturally, most global citizens do not want a lower standard of living so that US consumers can continue their orgy of excess. In fact, many global citizens owe their current standard of living due to elevated energy prices. Hence, after watching Biden liquidate the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to improve his polling numbers, while watching the Fed directly target their standard of living and that of their customers, OPEC has had enough. They’re going to do something about the Fed and its war on oil. OPEC has finally launched a counterattack. Last month, they agreed to cut output by 100,000 bbl/d. It was meant as a warning that went unheeded. Tomorrow, they’re going to Blitzkrieg the Fed.

  No one knows how big the cuts will be and frankly, it doesn’t matter how large they are. Instead, the message is clear—the Fed can crash global GDP in their fight against oil, but OPEC wields a much larger stick and will cut production even faster. In fact, OPEC will DO WHATEVER IT TAKES if the Fed continues on this path. OPEC has drawn a line under the price of oil and told the Fed that it’s wasting its time. OPEC controls the price of oil and oil is the world’s Central Banker, not the Fed.

  

  On Monday morning, the market heard that message loud and clear. The Fed is trapped, oil is going higher, and the Fed is powerless to contain it. Why would the Fed continue trying to blow up the world’s financial markets if oil will not bend to their will??

  Let’s look at a country like India that imports almost all of its energy. The Federal Reserve has effectively been saying, “they’re a poor country, we’ll break them and then global oil consumption will decline and US citizens will have cheaper oil.” Meanwhile, OPEC is saying, “India is a large and growing customer of ours. We’ll defend them against the Fed. Sure, they’ll pay more for their oil, but that’s much better than having the Fed detonate their currency, banking system and economy.” The battle lines are now drawn and OPEC is taking the mantle from the Fed. The market is loving it.

  The Fed tends to be the last ones to realize anything when it comes to economics and the markets, so they likely haven’t internalized what OPEC just told them. However, the stock market understood it instantly, having one of the largest 2-day rallies in years. We’re getting much closer to The Pause. The Fed still needs to break something before they can declare victory and reduce rates, but The Pause is near—maybe not near in terms of price, but certainly in terms of when they pause. OPEC’s counterattack has changed the calculus and the Fed is now on the backfoot. If you can’t win at something, why try?? Especially if you’re going to leave casualties all over the financial markets.

  On the topic of OPEC, here’s some quick math. Global supply and demand are roughly in balance today. Add in 1.5 million bbl/d of global SPR releases that will end soon, add in 2 million bbl/d of reduced demand from Chinese covid lock-downs that appear to be ending, add in 1 million bbl/d that Russian oil will decline by in 2023 (at a minimum), add in the 1 million bbl/d that global demand seems to expand by each year and assume that global supply somehow grows by 1 million bbl/d (though it isn’t clear where that growth would be coming from) and you have a 4.5 million bbl/d swing in 2023. Now add in whatever OPEC chooses and you realize that there’s an imminent and exponential crisis for the consumers of oil.

  Of course, the Fed could destroy enough global GDP to erase 4.5 million bbl/d of global oil demand and stop the price from exploding, but OPEC just told them that they’ll DO WHATEVER IT TAKES. Do you think the Fed continues its war on GDP when they now know they’ll fail to contain the price of oil??

  

  In 2023, energy will be the only thing that matters to investors. Everything else, including the Fed will be a side-show. Who’s ready for the insanity wave?? Ever since Monday, I’ve been maxing it all out in energy. I’ve been ripping right-tails all over the screen. Oil is going to wreck all the other CUSIPS. The S&P is partying this week because the Fed is cornered by OPEC, but that’s only because speculators don’t realize what this means for the price of oil.

  We just had a half-year pause in my oil thesis, now it’s about to resume with the sort of vigor that comes from a good long nap. Hope you’re ready…

  *  *  *

  Disclosure: Funds that I control have an obscene amount of energy exposure. Equities, options, futures, futures options, ETFs, you name it, we probably have it…

  If you enjoyed this post, subscribe at http://www.adventuresincapitalism.com

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 08:35

• ADP Reports Better Than Expected Jump In Jobs In September, Wage Growth Accelerates
  ADP Reports Better Than Expected Jump In Jobs In September, Wage Growth Accelerates

  Ahead of Friday’s big number, and following last month’s dismal print (under its new model regime) which dramatically under-predicted the payrolls print in August, ADP was expected to show a modest uptick in September of 200k jobs. The actual print came in at +208k jobs but most notably, the +132k print from August was revised drastically higher to +185k…

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  ADP’s Nela Richardson notes that “there are signs that people are returning to the labor market. We’re in an interim period where we’re going to continue to see steady job gains. Employer demand remains robust and the supply of workers is improving–for now.”

  The goods-producing sector lost 29,000 jobs in September while Services gained 237k…

  

  Job changers, who have been notching double-digit, year-over-year gains since the summer of 2021, lost momentum in September. Their annual pay rose 15.7 percent, down from a revised 16.2 percent gain in August. It’s the biggest deceleration in the three-year history of our data…

  

  For job stayers, annual pay rose 7.8 percent in September from a year ago, up from a revised 7.7 percent in August.

  

  According to ADP, US private employment is back above pre-COVID levels…

  

  Finally, as a reminder, even under its new model, ADP has been a serial underpredictor relative to the BLS payrolls print…

  

  Which means this Friday’s print will likely not be bad enough to prompt any Fed pause.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 08:24

• Futures Fall As Rally Fizzles, Dollar Spikes Amid Fresh Doubts Of Fed Pivot
  Futures Fall As Rally Fizzles, Dollar Spikes Amid Fresh Doubts Of Fed Pivot

  After the best 2-day rally since April 2020, the best start to a new quarter since 2009 and the best start of a Q4 since 2002, the powerful rally fizzled and US equity-index futures fell as investors pushed back on bets for less hawkish central banks amid the latest surge in oil, and sought more evidence that inflation is moderating. In other words, unlike yesterday, stock algos finally noticed what oil was doing.

  Stock algos still haven’t noticed what oil is doing. impressive

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Futures tracking S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.9% each after the underlying indexes scaled two-week highs on Tuesday. And as the dollar rebounded for the first time in three days, Treasuries slid across the curve as oil swung ahead of the OPEC+ meeting today where the cartel is expected to cut output by as much as 2mmb/d.

  

  In premarket trading, Twitter dropped 0.4% after Tuesday’s jump. Shares remain nearly 5% below Elon Musk’s $54.20 offer price as analysts say there are still “unknowns” around the transaction, although they expect the deal to go through. Further challenges lie ahead for Musk as he will now need to fix the social-media firm’s issues, analysts say. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

  • Church & Dwight shares rise 0.6% in US premarket trading, after the consumer-products maker was upgraded to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, with the broker saying that, while the stock has taken a break, it is not “broken.”
  • Emerson Electric (EMR US) shares rise as much as 2.9% in US premarket trading after the industrial-tech company was said to be in talks with buyout firm Blackstone to sell some of its commercial and residential solutions assets. Citi said a potential divestiture could give Emerson the opportunity to further simplify its portfolio.
  • US- listed Macau casino stocks could be in focus after Hong Kong- listed peers surged amid optimism over a travel rebound during the seven-day Golden Week holiday period. Watch Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands, Melco Resorts and MGM Resorts

  Today’s reversal, which followed the biggest drop in job openings on record (outside of the covid lockdowns), comes as a growing number of money managers is cautioning (again) that expectations for a so-called Fed pivot are (again) overdone and risk ignoring the economic pain that would underpin such a dovish tilt should policymakers opt for it. With several Fed officials reiterating their focus on reducing inflation, US jobs numbers due Friday and a new earnings-reporting season may provide the next catalysts for markets.

  “A dovish pivot requires more evidence of weaker growth and a decisive fall in inflation,” Emmanuel Cau, the head of European equity strategy at Barclays Plc, wrote in a note. “We doubt equities are out of the woods yet.”

  Elsewhere, as noted above, OPEC+ is considering its biggest production cut since 2020, a move Washington is trying to head off with furious diplomatic efforts. The group is set to discuss a cut to its output limits of as much as 2 million barrels a day, using current targets as a starting point. While a significant move, the actual impact on global supply would be smaller as several countries pump below their quotas/

  Meanwhile, investors’ attention remained focused on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data, which is expected to show 263,000 jobs were added in September: “For the market to continue higher, the jobs data will have to be in line with, or short of expectations,” said Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally.

  Europe’s Stoxx 600 halted its best three-day advance since November 2020. The gauge fell 0.7%, trimming some of its 5.3% rally since Thursday. Real estate, auto-parts and retail shares slid the most. Here are some of the biggest European movers:

  • Shop Apotheke shares gain as much as 11%, the most since early July, after preliminary third-quarter results beat expectations. Analysts say it was a strong quarter, with adjusted Ebitda remaining in positive territory.
  • Infineon rises as much as 4.8%, leading semiconductor peers higher, with analysts from Citi and Jefferies bullish on the chipmaker’s near-term demand and longer-term growth following a conference call with the company.
  • Anima Holding rises as much as 7.3%, the most intraday since April 8, and is among the day’s top performers on the FTSE Italia All-Share Index; Reuters reported on Tuesday that Italy favors keeping the company in domestic hands and could raise the stake it holds through Poste Italiane.
  • Tesco drops as much as 3.9% after the UK grocer provided guidance that Jefferies analysts say is “more cautiously nuanced,” while Bernstein analysts flagged possible margin pressure.
  • Credit Suisse declines as much as 3.9% as Societe Generale analysts say the firm needs to aggressively deleverage its investment banking operations.
  • The Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index declines, the worst- performing subgroup on Wednesday, led by parts suppliers and tiremakers. Continental AG drops as much as 7.2%, Valeo -6.4%
  • Shares in Avanza and Nordnet slide as much as 9.8% and 8.5%, respectively, after the Swedish retail trading and savings platforms presented their latest monthly statistics, which both showed negative net savings in September.
  • Vallourec drops as much as 8.9%, falling below the price at which stockholders sold 14.4m shares after the close Tuesday.

  Earlier in the session, equity markets gained ground across Asia, catching up with overnight moves in the US. Hong Kong stocks posted their best rally since March after a one-day break amid optimism that the global monetary policy tightening cycle will ease. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 2.1% on Wednesday, led by a surge in consumer discretionary and tech stocks such as TSMC and Alibaba. That brings the measure’s two-day rally to about 4.6%, the best since March. Stocks in Hong Kong were the region’s top performers, with the benchmark Hang Seng Index jumping almost 6% as trading resumed following a holiday. A gauge of Chinese technology stocks listed in the city rallied more than 7%. Thin trading with the onshore market closed for the Golden Week holiday likely amplified price gains. Anticipation has grown that the Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in hiking interest rates following a decline in US job openings. Such expectations had sent global equities surging, with some strategists forecasting a near-term trough in the battered Asia market. 

  “There’s a high probability that a bottom can form in emerging market and Asian equities from current levels as “signs of capitulation are abundant,” Morgan Stanley strategists including Jonathan Garner said in a note. “Valuations are now at or approaching prior cycle trough” after a major bear market in both regions, they added. Traders have plenty to digest this week from US payrolls to China’s Golden Week spending to reassess their wagers. While any weakness in US jobs data may further fuel bets for a slower pace of Fed tightening, Asian markets may continue to face headwinds should China spending disappoint. India markets are closed Wednesday for a national holiday.

  Japanese equities climbed for a third day, as a decline in US job openings further boosted investor hopes for slower Fed rate hikes.  The Topix Index rose 0.3% to 1,912.92 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 0.5% to 27,120.53. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 2.7%. Out of 2,168 stocks in the index, 1,047 rose and 1,009 fell, while 112 were unchanged. “The rise in the Japanese stocks is largely due to the decline in the US interest rates,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. “The economy and exchange rate is at the right temperature for stocks at the moment with a lack of strength in the US economy which has pushed the interest rate down.” 

  Australian stocks rose to near a three-week high: the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 1.7% to close at 6,815.70, extending gains into a second day, spurred by the central bank’s smaller-than-expected hike. The rally, which puts the benchmark at the highest since Sept. 15, tracks the best two-day run for US equities in over two years, as investors start to anticipate that the Fed will also slow its aggressive tightening path. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.8% to 11,180.01. The nation’s central bank hiked rates by a half-percentage point for a fifth consecutive meeting, signaling more to come. 

  In rates, Treasuries remained near lows of the day after selling off during European morning, following bigger losses across gilt curve as BOE hike premium is added. S&P 500 futures are down, paring a portion of Tuesday’s 3% advance. Treasury yields are cheaper by 2.5bp to 6bp across the curve, the 10Y yield is up to 3.67%, with losses led by intermediates, knocking 5s30s spread slightly flatter after a strong two-day steepening move; UK yields, higher by as much as 10bp, lead selloff in core European rates.

  In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index bounced from nearly a two-week low in early European trading and the greenback was steady or higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers.

  • The euro retreated by as much as 0.6% to 0.9923 after trading just below parity against the dollar on Tuesday. The German bond curve bear steepened. Italian bonds underperformed euro-area peers, ahead of the ECB’s non-monetary policy meeting, where officials are expected to discuss reducing the central bank’s balance sheet, according to people quoted by Bloomberg. Money markets were also raising ECB tightening wagers
  • The pound fell as much as 0.8% to $1.1380, snapping six days of gains. Gilts fell
  • The New Zealand dollar was steady versus the US dollar; it earlier jumped after the RBNZ increased its official cash rate to 3.5%, by delivering a fifth straight half percentage point hike
  • The yen and the Swiss franc also held up reasonably well amid a demand for havens

  In commodities, WTI trades within Tuesday’s range, falling 0.4% to near $86.20; OPEC+ expected to cut oil output. Spot gold drops roughly $12 to trade near $1,715/oz. Oil demand in top importer China may pick up after Beijing released trade allowances enabling its vast refining industry to ship in more crude and export more fuel. Local refiners and traders have been handed two separate batches of crude-import quotas for the remainder of this year and early 2023, as well as a 15 million ton fuel-export quota, according to JLC. Consensus heading into OPEC is that there will be a sizeable production cut announced, the magnitude of which is unknown but source updates are becoming increasingly skewed towards the top-end of a 0.5-2.0mln range.

  Bitcoin is under modest pressure in very slim ranges just above the USD 20k mark, parameters which are well within yesterday’s/recent sessions levels.

  To the day ahead now, and data releases include the final services and composite PMIs for September, as well as the ISM services index from the US. Otherwise, there’s French industrial production for August, the ADP’s report of private payrolls from the US for September, and the US trade balance for August. Finally from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic.

  Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to 3,768.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 399.21
  • MXAP up 1.8% to 144.75
  • MXAPJ up 2.5% to 470.65
  • Nikkei up 0.5% to 27,120.53
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,912.92
  • Hang Seng Index up 5.9% to 18,087.97
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,024.39
  • Sensex up 2.2% to 58,065.47
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.7% to 6,815.68
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,215.22
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.95%
  • Euro down 0.5% to $0.9936
  • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $91.63/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.8% to $1,711.81
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.60% to 110.72

  Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called for boosting common funding for the European Union’s strategy to shift away from Russian fossil fuels and signaled she’s open to discussing a temporary broad price cap on gas
  • The European Union backed a new package of Russia sanctions that includes support for a price cap on oil sales to third countries, according to people familiar with the issue
  • Russian gas supplies to Italy via Austria resumed, bringing some temporary relief to gas prices in Europe
  • France plans to recoup part of windfall profits made by electricity producers to bolster aid to companies and local governments struggling to pay rising bills
  • Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund started taking orders for its inaugural dollar green bond as the oil-rich state looks to burnish its environmental credentials
  • OPEC+ is considering its biggest production cut since 2020, a move Washington is trying to head off with furious diplomatic efforts. The group is set to discuss a cut to its output limits of as much as 2 million barrels a day, using current targets as a starting point
  • The world is careening toward recession and buying old haven reliables Treasuries and the yen still offers the best protection, according to Fidelity International

  A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

  Asia-Pacific stocks traded higher across the board as the region sustained the momentum from Wall St where the major indices extended their rally after soft data releases stoked hopes of a Fed pivot. ASX 200 continued to benefit following RBA’s recent rate hike slowdown with tech, consumer discretionary and financials leading the advances, while M&A prospects added to the optimism with Link Administration Holdings boosted after it received further proposals from Dye & Durham to acquire some of its businesses. Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 27k level although gains were capped by the lack of fresh catalysts and amid lingering geopolitical tensions after the US, Japan and South Korea responded to North Korea’s recent missile launch with military drills and even the test firing of four surface-to-surface missiles by the US and South Korea. Hang Seng outperformed as it played catch up to yesterday’s advances on return from its holiday closure and with HSBC among the biggest gainers as it explores a multibillion-dollar sale of its Canadian business.

  Top Asian News

  • RBNZ hiked the OCR by 50bps to 3.50%, as expected. RBNZ stated that the Committee agreed it is appropriate to continue to tighten policy and members agreed that monetary conditions needed to continue to tighten until inflation was back in target range. RBNZ also stated that core consumer inflation is too high and labour resources are scarce, while they considered whether to increase the OCR by 50bps or 75bps and some members highlighted that a larger increase in the OCR now would reduce the likelihood of a higher peak in the OCR being required.
  • Mizuho to Acquire About 20% of Rakuten Securities: Nikkei
  • Malaysia Palm Oil Stockpiles May Surge to Largest in Three Years
  • Morgan Stanley Says Bottom Near for Emerging-Market Equities
  • Gold Falls After Two-Day Surge With Fed Rate Stance in Focus
  • SK E&S Removes LNG Claim Amid Greenwashing Crackdown

  European bourses are under pressure following the strong gains seen in Tuesday’s session with fresh newsflow fairly limited heading into key US data, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%. In Europe, sectors are lower across the board with underperformance in Autos, Telecoms and Banking names. Stateside, ahead of those metrics which will be eyed for further clues around a ‘pivot’, futures are under similar pressure though magnitudes are a touch more contained, ES -0.9%. TSMC (2330 TW) has reportedly begun negotiating prices with its suppliers of equipment and materials for 2023, considering price reductions of at least 10%, according to sources via DigiTimes.

  Top European News

  • Votes to implement the UK government’s “mini-budget” will not take place until next spring in an attempt to put off potential rebellions until 2023, according to the understanding of the Telegraph.
  • EU ambassadors have now approved all details of the Russian sanctions package and a so-called written procedure launched that will finish at 09:00BST; publication will be in the EU official journal some time tomorrow, according to Radio Free Europe.
  • Russia says it does not intend to use additional budget revenues to purchase FX or gold, via Reuters.
  • U.K. Sept. Composite PMI 49.1 vs Flash Reading 48.4
  • European Gas Slides as Russia Resumes Flow to Italy Via Austria
  • EU Chief Urges Funds for Energy Pivot, Floats Gas Price Cap
  • Even Deutsche Bank Sees Paris as a Rising Hub for Traders
  • Gold Falls After Two-Day Surge With Fed Rate Stance in Focus

  FX

  • USD has benefited from a rebound in yields and perhaps on phycological/technical grounds, DXY at a 110.84 high.
  • Action which has come to the modest detriment of peers across the board, with GBP lagging into a speech from PM Truss after brief PMI-induced upside.
  • EUR/USD got within touch of parity, but failed to convincingly test the mark and has since faded back to 0.99.
  • NZD the relative outperformer after the RBNZ stuck with consensus for a 75bp hike in contrast to the RBA’s slower approach earlier in the week.

  Fixed Income

  • Core debt is pressured across the board with Gilts lagging despite upside from a well-received DMO outing as the benchmark struggles to get a foothold above 98.00.
  • Action which has lifted yields across the board, brining the UK 10yr back in reach of 4.0% while the US curve is a touch more mixed.
  • On this, USTs are slightly more contained than peers with downside of around 20 ticks as participants await key data readings.

  Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are currently dictated by broader risk and are modestly softer as such, though attention will turn to the OPEC gathering shortly.
  • As it stands, consensus heading into it is that there will be a sizeable production cut announced, the magnitude of which is unknown but source updates are becoming increasingly skewed towards the top-end of a 0.5-2.0mln range.
  • US Private Inventory (bbls): Crude -1.8mln (exp. +2.1mln), Cushing +0.9mln, Distillates -4.0mln (exp. -1.4mln), Gasoline -3.5mln (exp. -1.3mln)
  • US is reportedly pushing OPEC+ nations not to proceed with an output cut and is arguing to OPEC+ that economic fundamentals do not support an output cut, according to a source familiar with the matter cited by Reuters.
  • UN official may visit Moscow, Russia next week to discuss a grain deal, via Ria citing the Russian foreign ministry.
  • Spot gold is once again moving at the whim of the USD which has continued to firm throughout the morning and thus the yellow metal has been pushed back to the USD 1710/oz mark and away from the 50-DMA

  US Event Calendar

  • 7am: U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications -14.2%, prior -3.7%
  • 8:15am: U.S. ADP Employment Change, Sept., est. 200k, prior 132k
  • 8:30am: U.S. Trade Balance, Aug., est. -$67.7b, prior -$70.7b
  • 9:45am: U.S. S&P Global US Services PMI, Sept. F, est. 49.2, prior 49.2
  • 9:45am: U.S. S&P Global US Composite PMI, Sept. F, est. 49.3, prior 49.3
  • 10am: U.S. ISM Services Index, Sept., est. 56.0, prior 56.9

  Central Banks

  • 9:15am: Fed’s Kashkari Takes Part in Moderated Q&A
  • 4pm: Fed’s Bostic Discusses Inflation

  DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

  Another reminder that we’ve recently published our long-term asset study. Yesterday, we updated some of the bond and risk parity charts in the presentation version to account for month-end prices. You can find the link to that in the executive summary of the main report, which you can find here.

  One more plug, we’re hosting a call on the US mid-terms next Tuesday with perspectives from our public affairs group, US economics, and markets. This event will quickly come at us over the coming weeks. Register here.

  The rip-roaring start to Q4 has continued over the last 24 hours, with a significant cross-asset rally occurring thanks to speculation that central banks could soon ease up on their campaign of rate hikes. This positive mood music was evident from the start of the session, having had a significant boost from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision, which we covered yesterday, to only hike by 25bps rather than the 50bps expected. We’ll have to see if that proves to be the first in a trend, but investor risk appetite showed no sign of abating as the day went on. Australia probably shouldn’t be a template for the US or Europe but the move perfectly fitted and encouraged the current narrative. Indeed, the rally gained further steam after US data showed an unexpectedly large decline in job openings, thus raising additional hopes that inflationary pressures could be easing.

  Against that backdrop, there were substantial gains for equities, credit, bonds and commodities, with the S&P 500’s gains now at +5.73% over the last two trading sessions, which is the first time that’s happened since April 2020.

  Although the Fed and other central banks have done little to validate this idea we’ll get a dovish pivot, it’s clear that markets are pre-empting the possibility again, in a similar manner to what happened in July. This is mostly manifesting itself in markets moving to take out the rate hikes they’d previously been expecting for next year. For instance, the rate priced in by Fed funds futures for December 2023 came down another -3.8bps yesterday to 4.10%, moving even further away from its 4.50% peak just over a week ago. That drove real 10yr Treasury yields -5.2bps lower as additional tightening got priced out, but that decline was more or less offset by the subsequent increase in breakevens that left nominal 10yr yields just -0.6bps lower. They are flat in Asia.

  We’ll have to see if this narrative shift survives Friday’s payroll data and next week’s CPI print, but in the meantime the JOLTS report for August helped fuel the idea that the labour market is cooling off. In particular, the number of job openings fell to 10.053m (vs. 11.088m expected), which is their lowest level since July 2021, and the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers fell back to 1.67, which is the lowest since November 2021. For reference though the pre-covid levels for these two were around 7.2m and 1.2 respectively so the labour market is still tight but getting less so. The hope is that if these trends continue, that would mean that it might be possible to cool off the labour market with a fall in job openings, but without a simultaneous rise in unemployment.

  Over in Europe nominal sovereign bond yields had a more sustained decline, with those on 10yr bunds (-4.6bps), OATs (-5.1bps) and BTPs (-6.3bps) all moving lower on the day. Those moves were supported by a fresh decline in European natural gas prices, with futures down by -4.69% yesterday to hit their lowest level since late July. That followed weather forecasts suggesting that temperatures are set to be higher than normal over the next couple of weeks in Europe, which would help reduce demand for gas and lower the risk of shortages occurring. In addition, one official who did openly float the idea of a new phase of rate hikes was Bank of France Governor Villeroy. He said that the ECB should get to neutral “without hesitation”, but beyond that he said “We could start then a second part of the journey, a more flexible and possibly slower one”. On the other hand, President Lagarde didn’t explicitly mention any easing yesterday, saying that inflation was “undesirably high” and that it was difficult to tell if it was at its peak.

  With all said and done, equities soared on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 (+3.06%) surging even more than it did on Monday. The advance was incredibly broad-based, and the 497 companies that moved higher in the index was actually the highest number so far in 2022. The more cyclical sectors did particularly well, including tech as the NASDAQ (+3.34%) saw even larger advances. Elsewhere in the tech space, news that Elon Musk was planning to finally move ahead with his much discussed purchase of Twitter saw the stock advance +22.24%, after having traded halted intraday. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+3.12%), the DAX (+3.78%) and the CAC 40 (+4.24%) all saw their strongest daily performances since March.

  Here in the UK, there were further developments on the policy side, as Chancellor Kwarteng reiterated that the government would still be releasing their medium-term fiscal plan on November 23, contrary to reports from multiple outlets that it was set to be brought forward. That came as sterling strengthened for a 6th day running, gaining another +1.35% against the dollar to move back above $1.14 again, which also marked its longest run of consecutive gains in nearly 18 months. There were some interesting movements in gilts too. The 10yr yield came down by -8.6bps, but those on longer maturities saw sharp rises after the BoE said that they didn’t buy any of the gilts tendered on Tuesday as part of its emergency intervention, and yields on 30yr gilts (+14.9bps) closed back above 4% for the first time since the intervention began. Keep an eye out for any further developments today, as Prime Minister Truss will be delivering her speech to the Conservative Party conference.

  Overnight in Asia, major indices are higher. The Nikkei (+0.41%), KOSPI (+0.20%) and Hang Seng (+5.38%) are notching gains as Chinese markets remain closed for holidays. Hong Kong markets are catching up after Tuesday’s holiday. Futures are showing some pullback in the US (S&P 500 -0.5%) and Europe (Stoxx 50 -0.4%) though.

  There wasn’t much other data of note yesterday, with the US factory orders for August remaining unchanged, in line with expectations. Otherwise, Euro Area PPI hit a record high of +43.3% in August on a year-on-year basis, just above the +43.2% reading expected.

  To the day ahead now, and data releases include the final services and composite PMIs for September, as well as the ISM services index from the US. Otherwise, there’s French industrial production for August, the ADP’s report of private payrolls from the US for September, and the US trade balance for August. Finally from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 08:07

• OPEC+ Meeting Preview: Output Cut Between 0.5 And 2.0 Million bpd
  OPEC+ Meeting Preview: Output Cut Between 0.5 And 2.0 Million bpd

  Submitted by Newsquawk

  OPEC+ Preview

  • OPEC+ is likely to agree to cut oil, output, with expectations ranging from 0.5-2.0mln BPD; more recent expectations tilt towards the top end of the range.
  • The JMMC is set to meet at 13:00BST/08:00EDT, with the OPEC+ ministerial meeting slated for around 13: 30BST/08:30EDT. A press conference is then expected to take place (time TBC).
  • Expectations thus far point to a smooth meeting.

  EXPECTATIONS:

  OPEC+ is likely to agree on output cuts, with expectations ranging from 0.5-2.0mln BPD, as per several source reports, with the more recent reports tilting towards the top end of the range. The most recent reporting points towards a 2mln figure.

  • Bloomberg and Reuters reported that OPEC+ is considering a cut to targets ofReuters as much as 2mln BPD.
  • Saudi Arabia, Russia and other producers are set to announce deep cuts at the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday, according to the FT citing sources, who are reportedly pushing for cuts of 1-2mln BPD or more – these could be phased in over several months
  • Reuters and Bloomberg sources over the weekend suggested cuts could exceed 1mln BPD, and Saudi Arabia may also opt for an additional voluntary cut.
  • Reuters then cited sources saying that OPEC+ was discussing a potential oil output cut in excess of 1mln BPD, excluding any voluntary cuts.
  • Energy Intelligence said talks among delegates thus far indicated a cut of 1.5mln or more was under consideration, though it is unclear if this would be phased in.
  • It’s also worth being aware of an OPEC source cited by Reuters who suggested that the likely figure would be closer to 500k BPD. Sources via Reuters last week suggested Russia was likely to propose a reduction of around 1mln BPD. Talks are expected to continue ahead of the meeting.

  SCHEDULE:

  OPEC+ will be meeting in person in Vienna for the first time since March 2020. The Joint Technical Committee (JTC) meeting was scrapped for this month.

  • The JMMC is set to meet at 13:00BST/08:00EDT.
  • The OPEC+ ministerial meeting slated for around 13:30BST/08:30EDT.
  • A press conference is then expected to take place afterwards (time TBD).
  • Expectations thus far point to a smooth meeting, according to Energy Intelligence

  FACTORS :

  PRICES: Crude prices have been volatile and on a downward trajectory throughout the second half of the year due to demand woes emanating from deeper recession fears – with Brent prices down almost USD 15/bbl from the high seen at the prior meeting.

  • According to FT an report in early September, the Saudi Energy Minister was under pressure from the Saudi Crown Prince to keep prices near to USD 100/bbl, whilst Reuters suggested Saudi and Russia both saw USD 100/bbl as a fair price.
  • “Saudi Arabia is keen to lower output both to prop up prices and so it can keep some production capacity in reserve. The kingdom fears that Russian output could fall sharply later this year when western sanctions against its oil exports tighten”, according to the FT citing people brief on Saudi’s thinking.
  • Although, when questioned by Energy Intelligence, the Saudi Energy Minister said “OPEC+, as is well known,Energy Intelligence does not target prices or prices ranges. Its aim is to support market stability and supply and demand balance”.
  • From a geopolitical standpoint, significant cuts to output targets are not likely to sit well with Washington, which has been attempting to pressure Saudi Arabia to raise oil production levels in a bid to push down prices and tame energy inflation. On this front, the NOPEC bill (No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels) may resurface in wake of the meeting.
  • The US is reportedly pushing OPEC+ nations not to proceed with an output cut and is arguing that economic fundamentals do not support an output cut, according to a Reuters source.

  DEMAND: The fear of recession against the backdrop of rising interest rates from major economies has provided a double whammy to the demand side of the equation.

  • The September Oil Market Report (OMR) maintained its 2022 and 2023 forecasts, with a “recently observed trend for additional oil demand growth due to fuel switching in power generation.”
  • That being said, since then the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) metrics out of Europe painted a bleaker growth picture for the continent – “A eurozone recession is on the cards as companies report worsening business conditions and intensifying price pressures linked to soaring energy costs”, the release said.
  • In China, the “zero COVID” policy remains a headwind to demand, with holidaymakers this week bracing for more disruptions during the Golden Week holiday as the Chinese government attempts to contain COVID cases ahead of the Communist Party National Congress mid-October.

  SUPPLY: Limited spare capacity has been an ongoing burden for the group of oil producers.

  • According to an internal document cited by Reuters, OPEC+ fell short of its target by 3.58mln BPD in August having missed the target by 2.89mln BPD in July. As a reminder, the IEA estimates Saudi has a short-order capacity (reachable in less than 90 days) of around 1.2mln BPD, with the longer-term capacity predicted to be nearer to 2.1mln BPD. The argument OPEC watchers have been flagging is the state of confidence within the group (to stabilise the oil market) if they have no spare capacity, with oil traders warning of a potential upward spiral in oil prices if this “worst case” scenario were to occur. Cutting output targets would water down the issue of over-compliance. It’s also worth distinguishing between target cuts and actual barrels coming off the market (likely to be lower than proposed cuts given the over-compliance).
  • Elsewhere, FT sources suggested that Saudi Arabia was concerned that “Russian output could fall sharply late this year when western sanctions against its oil exports tighten”.
  • Furthermore, Iranian barrels do not look set to return to international markets just yet as nuclear deal talks remain at a standstill; neither Tehran or Washington are willing to provide enough concessions to move forward.
  • On the other side, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) sales could be utilised to offset some effects of OPEC+ production cuts, although the SPR has seen continuous drains with levels reported to be down to those seen in 1984.

  HOUSE VIEWS:

  • JP Morgan suggested in recent days a cut of around 1mln BPD was on the cards and could help arrest the price decline.
  • UBS said that only a production cut by OPEC+ can break the negative momentum within the oil market in the short-term, and to provide a stronger floor in oil prices, Saudi would need to make extra voluntary cuts.
  • RBC sees a ‘significant chance’ of substantial OPEC+ supply cut and said OPEC+ may cut by 500k-1mln BPD at the October 5th meeting.
  • Goldman Sachs said an OPEC+ supply cut would reinforce its bullish oil price view, and would help to limit downside to prices in the scenario of disappointing economic growth.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 07:29

• European Gas Demand Set For Record-Breaking Decline In 2022
  European Gas Demand Set For Record-Breaking Decline In 2022

  By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

  Soaring natural gas prices, demand destruction in the industrial sector, and energy-saving measures are set to reduce gas consumption in Europe’s developed economies by 10% this year, the biggest drop in European demand in history, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its quarterly Gas Market Report on Monday.

  

  The forecast of a 10% decline in natural gas demand in OECD Europe reflects the expectation of higher gas prices and the EU’s ambition to reduce gas consumption by 15% between August 2022 and March 2023 compared to its five-year average.

  “Assuming average weather conditions, gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors is expected to remain below 2021 levels,” the IEA said in its report.

  Due to sky-high high prices and a very tight gas market, natural gas usage in the power generating sector in Europe is forecast to drop by nearly 3% this year. Industrial gas demand is expected to plunge by as much as 20%, the IEA said.

  Energy-intensive industries in Europe, including aluminum, copper, and zinc smelters and steel makers, have already warned EU officials that they face an existential threat from surging power and gas prices. 

  After a record slump in gas demand this year, Europe faces another year of gas consumption contraction in 2023, when OECD Europe’s demand is forecast to decline by 4% amid high prices, according to estimates from the IEA.

  The agency also noted that “Further potential disruption to the supply of Russian gas provides additional downside risk to this outlook.”

  Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security, commented on the report:

  “The outlook for gas markets remains clouded, not least because of Russia’s reckless and unpredictable conduct, which has shattered its reputation as a reliable supplier. But all the signs point to markets remaining very tight well into 2023.”

  The IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said last week that the gas market could be even tighter next year compared to already tight LNG markets in 2022.   

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 07:20

• New Hedge Fund Formation Falls To Lowest Since 2008
  New Hedge Fund Formation Falls To Lowest Since 2008

  Persistent and mounting volatility in stocks, currencies, government bonds, credit, cryptos, and just about everything has intensified fears among a generation of money managers entirely dependent on a “Fed put.” Though no such pivot has yet come into play (yet) this year as the Federal Reserve is hellbent on tightening financial conditions to combat the highest inflation in forty years.

  When the Fed injects liquidity into capital markets, everyone is considered a genius, but when conditions tighten, you’ll “find out who’s been swimming naked,” as Warren Buffet once said two decades ago. And for many unseasoned money managers, which there is a lot, who haven’t traded in the mid-70s, late 80s, Dot Com bust, and GFC, it’s been a oneway ticket up for them as they only know one trading strategy: ‘buy the dip.’ 

  Perhaps the Fed-induced market turmoil this year, which has left every dip buyer deeply underwater, could be one of the reasons why new hedge fund launches in the second quarter were at the lowest levels since the 2008 GFC. 

  Data from Hedge Fund Research showed new hedge fund formation slid to only 80 between April and June, down significantly from 185 in the first quarter of the year. The last time hedge fund formations were this low was 56 in the fourth quarter of 2008. 

  During the quarter, there were 156 hedge fund liquidations, a 24% increase over the prior quarter. The total number of hedge funds declined to 9,237 in the second quarter from 9,313 in the first. 

  It was May when we told readers that 2022 Has Been The Worst Year Ever For Hedge Funds. Melvin Capital was one of the most closely followed hedge fund closures during the quarter. 

  HFR data shows market turmoil in the year’s first half resulted in $7.7 billion in net outflows across the hedge fund industry. Even with firms going bust and firm formations at decade lows, hedge funds managed to outperform the broad equity indexes. 

  Through August, the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index – a global index of the world’s largest hedge funds – fell about 3%, compared with a 17% plunge in the S&P500 over the same period. 

  

  Underperformance, hedge fund closures, and lack of new firm formation have occurred in a Fed-induced down cycle for markets. Former Fed Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said earlier this year that money managers must remove their “beer goggles” after years of ZIRP and QE because ‘Powell isn’t coming to a rescue.’ 

  “The Fed has created this dependency and there’s an entire generation of money-managers who weren’t around in ’74, ’87, the end of the ’90s, and even 2007-2009.. and have only seen a one-way street… of course they’re nervous.” 

  “The question is – do you want to feed that hunger? Keep applying that opioid of cheap and abundant money?” Fisher told CNBC in January. 

  Money managers can only hope for one thing: A Fed pivot to revive markets. 

  This is exactly what the Powell Fed has been looking for. Here is Powell on Sept. 22:

  “Job openings could come down significantly—and they need to—without as much of a an increase in unemployment as has happened in earlier historical episodes.”

  — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … that could be coming soon. If not, the hedge fund industry will shrink some more. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 06:55

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• US-China Space Wars & Moon-Mining
  US-China Space Wars & Moon-Mining

  Authored by Antonio Graceffo via The Epoch Times,

  The space race between the United States and China is not like the movies but is extremely important.

  “You could have a Chinese company on the moon in the 2030s claiming territory with a resource on it in the same way the Chinese have claimed the entire South China Sea,” warned Malcolm Davis, a space policy researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, in a report released on May 17.

  In “Star Wars,” “Star Trek,” “Buck Rogers,” “Flash Gordon,” and other science-fiction movies, space weapons are laser cannons, ion guns, blasters, and phasers that shoot impressive rays of light energy and blow up whatever they hit.

  However, the reality of space wars is “low-moving rendezvous robot satellites, ground-based electronic jammers, and cyber weapons and lasers designed to disable satellites without producing space debris,” according to a January 2022 report by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

  Unlike the movies, much of the threat in space will come from the ground through terrestrial control centers issuing orders to space-based assets. It will probably not entail battles between government spacecraft, but utility hardware, owned and operated by private companies with peaceful missions. A debris-clearing satellite, the property of a company in Palo Alto or Shenzhen, might be commanded from Earth to damage, defuel, or disrupt the trajectory or operation of a satellite from another country. Rather than firing an ion cannon, a Chinese space asset could disable a U.S. or Japanese satellite, making it difficult for allied militaries on Earth to navigate or fire effectively. And the defense against these attacks would be to use “bodyguard” satellites to push the offenders away gently.

  

  The International Space Station in an undated handout. (Nasa/PA)

  On May 30, two NASA astronauts were launched into space under the agency’s Commercial Crew Program, marking the return to a time when the United States transported its people into space without depending on foreign countries like Russia. U.S. private firms can now carry out launches to low-Earth orbits at competitive prices. Consequently, in addition to no longer being dependent on foreign countries for space assistance, NASA can now focus on its longer-term goal of launching Americans into deeper space.

  In 2020, China’s Chang’e-5 moon mission discovered a new variant mineral now called Changesite-(Y). The crystal containing helium-3 could prove incredibly valuable as it may offer a new energy source. Scientists believe that the tiny crystals may be able to power nuclear reactors and are abundant on the moon. To put the power of helium-3 in perspective, about three tablespoons of helium-3 could replace 5,000 tons of coal.

  Consequently, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced plans for three more moon missions over the next 10 years and the construction of a permanent lunar base.

  The Chinese space agency frequently captures headlines heralding China’s achievements in space. Apart from Chang’e-5 landing on the moon, China managed to land a rover called Zhurong on Mars in 2021. However, China is slow in the space race. The United States sent its first uncrewed mission to the moon in 1962, followed by a human-crewed mission in 1969. Chinese unmanned craft reached Mars in 2020, a feat NASA had achieved with Mariner 4 in 1964, while the first U.S. craft to land on Mars was Viking 1 in 1975. Currently, with 2,944 satellites, the United States has nearly six times as many satellites orbiting the Earth as China with 499.

  

  The Yutu-2 moon rover, taken by the Chang’e-4 lunar probe on the far side of the moon, on Jan. 11, 2019. China will seek to establish an international lunar base one day, possibly using 3D printing technology to build facilities, the Chinese space agency said on Jan. 14, 2019, weeks after landing the rover on the moon’s far side. (China National Space Administration/AFP via Getty Images)

  Many of the media stories released by the CCP tout grand plans for Chinese landers, space launchers, a moon base, and manned missions to the moon and Mars. So far, these are just aspirations for the CCP. Aside from the fact that the United States will be returning to the moon with a manned mission in 2024 or 2025 through the Artemis program, the United States intends to have a continual presence on the moon by 2028.

  Additionally, the United States has blocked China’s participation in the International Space Station. A 2011 U.S. law also prohibits NASA from partnering with China. The United States wants to establish a NATO-like organization to regulate the use of space and space assets. At the same time, U.S. officials have outlined the Artemis Accord, an expansion of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. So far, neither Russia nor China have been willing to sign the accord, although Japan, South Korea, Australia, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and several other nations have.

  Even though the United States is far ahead on some scorecards, China already possesses the capacity to wage a space war. Satellites in space could be used to surveil military hardware on the ground, at sea, or even detect submarines in the ocean. Space assets could also help Beijing coordinate missile attacks on Earth.

  

  Chinese militarization of space is consistent with the CCP’s 2019 white paper on the expanding space role of the People’s Liberation Army. Apart from the revenue that the CCP could earn from mining the moon, one of the primary uses of Chinese space weapons could be to aid China’s navy in taking control of the South China Sea or invading Taiwan.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 10/05/2022 – 00:05

• Lawyer For Saudi Crown Prince Claims Sovereign Immunity In Khashoggi Suit
  Lawyer For Saudi Crown Prince Claims Sovereign Immunity In Khashoggi Suit

  Last week, Saudi King Salman designated his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as the kingdom’s prime minister. Now, his lawyer is using that move to ask a federal U.S. judge to dismiss a civil suit accusing “MBS” of ordering the murder of Washington post columnist and gadfly Jamal Khashoggi. 

  The naming of MBS as prime minister “leaves no doubt that the Crown Prince is entitled to status-based immunity,” asserted attorney Michael Kellogg in a filing in the District of Columbia. Therefore, the judge “should dismiss Plaintiffs’ claims against the Crown Prince for lack of subject-matter jurisdiction.”

  Though MBS is the de facto ruler of the kingdom, his previous claims of sovereign immunity were considered weak at best, given he was “only” the crown prince. “Head of state immunity is an absolute, status-based immunity that typically extends to sitting heads of state, heads of government, and foreign ministers,” University of California, Davis law professor William S. Dodge explained at Just Security.  

  The plaintiffs’ attorneys are expected to argue that the prime minister “promotion” was purely meant to facilitate MBS’s evasion of justice. “In announcing the change – an exception to Saudi law that calls for the king to also serve as prime minister – it is stated that King Salman will still act as prime minister in meetings in which he is present,” reports The Guardian. 

  On Friday, the White House asked the judge for a 45-day postponement of the court’s deadline for President Biden to offer his opinion over whether MBS merits sovereign immunity. The request cited the crown prince’s new title as a reason for needing more time.

  This would be the second delay granted by the court. The original deadline was Aug. 1 — just two weeks after Biden visited Saudi Arabia and infamously fist-bumped MBS, obliterating his campaign promise to treat the kingdom as a “pariah” state. 

  When asked in a 2019 debate if he would “punish” senior Saudi leaders for Khashoggi’s murder, Biden replied: 

  “Yes….Khashoggi was in fact murdered and dismembered, and I believe on the order of the crown prince. And I would make it very clear we were not going to in fact sell more weapons to them. We were going to in fact make them pay the price, and make them in fact the pariah that they are. There’s very little social redeeming value…in the present government in Saudi Arabia.”

  

  Even if the Biden administration is content to see MBS face civil suit scrutiny, the U.S. government may have its own interest in killing the lawsuit: If the case proceeds to discovery, plaintiff attorneys will be pressing the U.S. government to release its own sensitive files on the murder.

  MBS stands accused of ordering Khashoggi’s October 2018 murder at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. A Washington, DC resident and writer for the Washington Post, Khashoggi was an outspoken critic of the crown prince and was launching an organization called Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN). DAWN is a plaintiff in the civil suit, along with Hatice Cengiz, Khashoggi’s fiancée at the time of his killing. 

  MBS has acknowledged the Saudi government’s responsibility for the murder, but denies any personal involvement in it. A CIA assessment concluded with “medium to high confidence” that MBS “personally targeted Khashoggi.”

  Noting the killers were from MBS’ top security units, the CIA said, “We assess it is highly unlikely this team of operators…carried out the operation without Muhammed bin Salman’s authorization.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 23:45

• Shellenberger: Media Is Lying About Climate & Hurricanes
  Shellenberger: Media Is Lying About Climate & Hurricanes

  Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Substack,

  Over the last several weeks, many mainstream news media outlets have claimed that hurricanes are becoming more expensive, more frequent, and more intense because of climate change.

  • The Financial Times reported that “hurricane frequency is on the rise.”

  • The New York Times claimed, “strong storms are becoming more common in the Atlantic Ocean.”

  • The Washington Post said, “climate change is rapidly fueling super hurricanes.”

  • ABC News declared, “Here’s how climate change intensifies hurricanes.”

  • Both the FT and N.Y. Times showed graphs purporting to show rising hurricane frequency using data from the U.S. government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

  All of those claims are false.

  

  The increasing cost of hurricane damage can be explained entirely by more people and more property in harm’s way. Consider how much more developed Miami Beach is today compared to a century ago. Once you adjust for rising wealth, there is no trend of increasing damage.

  

  Claims that hurricanes are becoming more frequent are similarly wrong. “After adjusting for a likely under-count of hurricanes in the pre-satellite era,” writes NOAA, “there is essentially no long-term trend in hurricane counts. The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s.” What’s more, NOAA expects a 25% decline in hurricane frequency in the future.

  What about intensity? Same story. Explains NOAA, “after adjusting for changes in observing capabilities (limited ship observations) in the pre-satellite era, there is no significant long-term trend (since the 1880s) in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes.“ Bottom line? “We conclude that the data do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in:  frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major.

  

  NOAA indeed predicts a 5% increase in hurricane intensity by 2100, but no increase in intensity is today detectable. And the best-available science forecasts that the slight increase in overall hurricane intensity in the future won’t be because there are more intense hurricanes but rather because hurricanes overall will decline more than intense hurricanes (category 4 and 5). As a result, there will be a greater proportion of category 4 and 5 hurricanes than categories 1, 2, and 3.

  In other words, the relative intensity of hurricanes will rise, even as the total number of hurricanes — and the total number of intense hurricanes — decline.

  Why are the media spreading obviously inaccurate information, and not reporting the basic facts? Are journalists simply ignorant? Or is something else going on?

  Evidence Of Deliberate Deception

  Is it possible journalists are just ignorant of current climate science? Perhaps some are. But mainstream news media outlets have been covering climate change and hurricanes for the last 20 years. And the information on hurricane costs, frequency, or intensity is hardly hidden away. It’s been summarized in the IPCC reports, most recently in 2021. And NOAA even boldfaces its key conclusions.

  

  The New York Times graph (left) inappropriately cherry-picks data from the post-1980 period while the Financial Times graph (right) misrepresents improved hurricane detection as rising hurricane frequency.

  Consider four of the main ways the media mislead the public about climate change and hurricanes. They:

  1. Misrepresent data showing improved observations of hurricanes (thanks in large measure to satellites and other hurricane detection technologies) as evidence of more frequent hurricanes;

  2. Misrepresent hypotheses (e.g., that some hurricanes may become more intense by 2100) as facts in the present without mentioning that median projections suggest a decrease in all categories of storms;

  3. Cherry-pick data to present trends in a relatively recent period since the 1980s and ignore the fact that there is much longer-term data available;

  4. Confuse increasing damage with increasing incidence or intensity, even as there is a strong understanding that what and where we build explains all escalating disaster damage.

  Is it possible that the Financial Times reporter Aime Williams and her editors pulled the data from the NOAA website to make their graph, and mistakenly claimed that it shows more frequent hurricanes, but didn’t happen to read the website and its explicit warning that “After adjusting for a likely under-count of hurricanes in the pre-satellite era, there is essentially no long-term trend in hurricane counts”?

  If that is indeed what occurred, then Williams and FT are guilty of journalistic malpractice of the highest order. But there is little reason to think that’s what happened. NOAA makes its warning relatively early on its web page and repeats it several times. And FT, like everyone else, has been covering this issue for decades not years.

  I asked Williams in an email why she reported that hurricanes were increasing in frequency and intensity, against the best available science, and she did not respond. Whatever the case, FT should issue a retraction or a correction.

  Washington Post reporters Scott Dance and Kasha Patel claim that “storms rated Category 4 or stronger… have increased in number in recent decades” and their headline reads, “climate change is rapidly fueling super hurricanes.”

  Those claims are, respectively, misleading and wrong. According to NOAA, 15 Category 4 or stronger hurricanes made landfall in Florida since 1919, with 10 of them occurring before 1960 (over 42 years) and 5 of them since (over 62 years).

  There is evidence that Dance and Patel knew they were being misleading. Consider the following sentence from their article: “One comparable period of hurricane activity came from 1945 to 1950, when five Category 4 hurricanes hit Florida in six years, making [hurricane researcher Philip] Klotzbach reluctant to call the series of intense storms since 2017 unprecedented.”

  The word “reluctant” softens the meaning. “Refuses” would be a more accurate word. And he refuses to call the storms unprecedented because, as Dance and Patel acknowledge, they aren’t.

  It’s worth pausing on this point for a moment. Klotzbach clearly explained the data to Dance and Patel. They clearly understood it. And yet they softened and buried Kotzbach’s debunking of their headline claim as though it were a quibble.

  I emailed Dance and Patel and asked about their reporting decisions, and a Washington Post spokesperson responded with an email that said, “We stand by our reporting on the unusually high number of major hurricanes to make landfall along the U.S. in recent years and which experience rapid intensification, sometimes shortly before landfall. Studies referenced in the article, including analysis by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as work by NOAA have stated the increase in rapid intensification events over the past three to four decades likely cannot be explained by natural variability alone.”

  But what she said doesn’t make sense, and contradicts the best-available science. Four decades ago, the 1980s, was a period of historic lows. And the scientific consensus is that natural variability does, in fact, explain the post-1980 increase. “After homogenization,” wrote a team of scientists last year, “increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s. We suggest internal (e.g., Atlantic multidecadal) climate variability and aerosol-induced mid-to-late-20th century major hurricane frequency reductions have probably masked century-scale greenhouse-gas warming contributions to North Atlantic major hurricane frequency.” [emphasis added]

  Whether it is a case of poor journalism or deliberate deception, The Washington Post should issue a retraction or correction.

  What about the article in The New York Times, by-lined by David Leonhardt, which claims that “strong storms are becoming more common in the Atlantic Ocean”? What about its graph, which shows a trend of rising category 4 and 5 storms starting in 1980?

  The 1970s and 1980s are well-understood to be the low point in hurricane activity in the 20th Century. In a paper titled “Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century,” which Nature Communications published last year, scientists wrote, “the inactive period in the late 20th century may have been the most inactive period in recent centuries.” So, of course, a time series starting in 1980 will show increased activity.

  It is an obviously deliberate and egregiously unprofessional choice.

  I have known David for over a decade and know that he can be a careful reporter when he chooses to be. He did some of the most honest reporting for The New York Times on Covid. He won Pulitzers in 2010 and 2011. I emailed David to ask what made him decide to cherry-pick those dates; I have not heard back. Whatever the case, The New York Times should retract or correct the article.

  It is notable that journalists twist themselves into pretzels to create the impression that hurricanes are increasing in frequency and intensity without ever acknowledging the data showing that they are not. A simple graph of U.S. landfalls shows that. And yet no major media outlet has ever, to my knowledge, published it.

  Consider my on-line interaction with Ginger Zee, chief meteorologist and managing editor of the climate unit of ABC News. In a tweet I wrote, “I have not seen a single mainstream news media outlet mention any of this,” in reference to the NOAA forecast of declining frequency and increasing intensity of hurricanes.

  Responded Zee, “We have! Global cyclone frequency down, studies show you need the difference in cold and warm as you go up, & all warming, so less cyclone starts(cyclone is general term for hurricane/typhoon), HOWEVER, once they do start, better chance of rapidly intensifying w/ warmer ocean water.”

  I responded, “Ginger, how do you justify the ABC headline given NOAA’s explicit statement that “data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in… the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes”?”

  She responded, “That article is Referencing this Noaa study: https://gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/… , @KentonGewecke & @RobMarciano covered this weekend on GMA…We are also all aware of confidence in relationship to CC.”

  I replied, “Thanks, Ginger, but that doesn’t answer my question. Do you think the ABC headline, which implies hurricanes *are* intensifying, is accurate, given NOAA’s insistence that such claims can’t be made?”

  She didn’t respond. However, Zee made clear that she and her colleagues Kenton Gewecke and Rob Marciano were aware of the NOAA web page that warns that there is no evidence of increasing hurricane frequency or intensity.

  How she responded after that seemed indicative of much of the media coverage, which is to pivot away from the cold hard facts and towards presenting speculation and hypothesis as certain. And indeed, when you read through media coverage of climate change, you often find reporters emphasizing that they can’t entirely attribute any given hurricane to climate change, only that “climate change makes such events more likely.”

  But such statements are a dodge. The reason we can’t attribute trends in hurricanes to climate change is that since reliable records started being kept the data indicates that hurricanes aren’t increasing in either frequency or intensity — full stop. To suggest that “climate change makes stronger hurricanes more likely or frequent” inappropriately misleads listeners and readers to believe that hurricanes are growing more likely or frequent.  

  As such, it’s clear that reporters are deliberately seeking to convince their readers and listeners of the false impression that hurricanes are becoming more frequent and intense. Many reporters do so in a subtle way, like ABC’s Zee, while others are more direct about it, like the FT’s Williams

  Moreover, these “mistakes” are occurring within a larger context of excluding relevant information, including what I view as the three biggest findings about the relationship between climate change and disasters:

  1. deaths from natural disasters have declined dramatically over many decades;

  2. costs from natural disasters have also declined as a proportion of our exposure;

  3. the frequency of natural disasters is declining this century.

  The Climate Alarmists’ War on Scientists

  The final piece of evidence that journalists are aware of the fact that hurricanes are becoming neither more frequent nor more intense comes from the vicious war waged against the most important and most outspoken scientist in the field, Roger Pielke, Jr.

  

  In 2018, John Podesta (left) and his Center for American Progress launched a campaign of character assassination against leading climate and hurricane researcher Roger Pielke, Jr. (right)

  University of Colorado scientist Pielke, Jr. in the late 1990s literally invented the method of “normalizing” the cost of hurricanes to account for a rising population, buildings, and wealth as the factors capable of explaining all of the rising cost of hurricanes, which meant that he and his colleagues discovered that there was no evidence that climate change was so far detectable in the escalating costs of hurricane disasters.

  Pielke, Jr. has for a quarter-century a strong advocate for strong action on climate change. But because his scientific work on hurricanes undermines climate alarmism, progressive activists and Democrats in Congress and the White House have vilified him. In 2008, the Center for American Progress, led by John Podesta, the former chief of staff to Bill Clinton and campaign chairman for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign, joined in on a shockingly vicious and personal series of attacks on Pielke, including falsely claiming he was funded by fossil fuel interests.

  All of these efforts were plainly aimed at discrediting Pielke, Jr., to journalists. They triggered an enormous quantity of media coverage which culminated in a 2014 effort by CAP to get Pielke, Jr. fired as a columnist for Nate Silver’s website, fivethirtyeight.com, after it published an article by Pielke, Jr. summarizing the science showing no increase in hurricane frequency or intensity.

  Pielke, Jr. then wrote about the experience of being canceled by fivethirtyeight.com in The Wall Street Journal in 2016. I wrote about the attacks in Apocalypse Never, in a viral article I wrote introducing the book, and again last week. Every senior editor, producer, or reporter working in a mainstream news media outlet knows about the debate over Pielke, Jr.’s work, and the fact base behind it.

  Roger has responded to these attacks, which have undermined his professional career, and intimidated his colleagues, many of whom behaved with the cowardice typical of academics today, with grace and dignity. He is a model of courage in public life. You can support him by taking a moment now to subscribe to his excellent, must-read Substack.

  I asked Roger whether he thought most reporters knew that hurricanes are not increasing in frequency and intensity, and were choosing to present information aimed at giving readers the opposite impression. He pointed to the graphs showing no change, and even a slight decline, in landfalling hurricanes and in major hurricanes.

  “We should ask why the data in these graphs have never appeared in the mainstream media,” he said. “Journalists should understand that by playing things straight with their readers and the public, more trust is gained in their work and in climate science more generally. People are not fools and won’t be tricked for long. Good science always wins in the end, even if it takes a little while.”

  It’s one thing for a journalist to accuse his fellow journalists of getting something wrong; it’s quite another to accuse them of deliberately misleading the public. The former is understandable and forgivable. We all make mistakes. But to deliberately mislead the public is a violation of the duty of the journalist to report basic facts accurately. To accuse a journalist of deliberately misleading the public is to accuse him or her of lying. I recognize that it’s a very serious charge.

  But it is time to state the obvious. The media are consciously and deliberately misleading the public about the relationship between climate change and hurricanes. That means they are lying. Mainstream news reporters, and their editors, at The Financial Times, New York Times, Washington Post, ABC News, and other outlets know perfectly well that hurricanes are not increasing in either frequency or intensity and have decided to mislead readers and viewers into believing the opposite.

  It’s time for that to change.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 23:25

• US Army Recruitment Falters – Misses Goal By 25% As Woke Ideology Takes Over
  US Army Recruitment Falters – Misses Goal By 25% As Woke Ideology Takes Over

  The US Army along with all other branches of the armed forced (except the Air Force) have continued to fall short of recruitment goals this year.  The Army reports a loss of over 15,000 new troops so far in 2022, while the US Marine Corp, Navy and Air Force are entering the next fiscal year with far less locked in recruits than normal. 

  Questions are rising about the reasons behind the steep decline in recruitment, with many suggesting that the “end” of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have reduced interest in service. 

  The real reasons are rather plain to see, however, as the Pentagon and the US government shifts their political rhetoric to the extreme left.

  For decades, the military has been comprised of 70% conservative/independent troops with views ranging from middle-of-the-road and libertarian to religious Republican.  The vast majority of soldiers are not progressive and do not vote Democrat.  That said, from 2021 onward there has been a change in the way recruits relate politically to the armed forces, perhaps because there has been a change in the way the military advertises.

  The US Army in particular is famous now for one of the worst recruitment campaigns in military history; going full woke last year with a series of cartoon ads that promoted woke politics and targeted the tiny LGBT segment of the population. 

  This led to widespread distrust among conservatives of the military overall and of the Army in particular.  Another issue which caused conservatives to walk away was open admissions by US generals about their goal of implementing Critical Race Theory and woke ideology in the armed forces.  The Navy is training its leadership to use identity “pronouns.”  West Point Military Academy is also now implementing woke concepts into its training curriculum.

  It’s interesting to note that the very first openly trans active duty Army officer was just caught betraying the US and sharing medical secrets of personnel with Russia. 

  Perhaps allowing mentally unstable people into the armed forces is not such a good idea?

  Add to that the fact that Joe Biden made a man (Rachel Levine) that identifies as a woman and that supports gender affirmation surgery for minors into a four star admiral, and you begin to see why the military can’t reach recruitment goals – They just lost the only segment of the population that has patriotic motivations for service; the most valuable segment of the population when it comes to war. And, there are nowhere near enough woke people to fill the void, thus, shortages rise.

  Beyond the attempts at woke indoctrination, there has also been the issue of forced covid vaccines.  This did not necessarily cause a large number of current serving to leave the military; many soldiers caved and accepted the vaccines in order to keep their jobs.  But, the military is now starting to abandon vaccine requirements anyway.  Why?  Because they can’t meet recruitment goals as millions of conservatives refuse to comply and refuse to enter into service under mandate conditions.

  Some may argue that this is a deliberate attempt by Biden and his handlers to purge conservatives from the armed forces, as leftists continue their witch hunt for “extremists” in the military.  Even if this is the case, it only helps the cause of liberty, with trained military personnel and all the capable fighters turning away from the woke movement rather than being used by it.  

  As the trend continues, the Pentagon will either implode, or it will be forced to capitulate and end woke indoctrination in order to keep a functioning military in place.  Leftists are natural weaklings and their ideology demands using victim status as a currency.  This means a woke military would be impossible to maintain – It would be an army of flailing, crying narcissists that only care about themselves.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 23:05

• "When Will They Learn?"
  “When Will They Learn?”

  Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

  Dependency upon government is a disease. Once it has been caught, it becomes chronic and does not reverse itself in a population until the system collapses under its own weight.

  

  For many years, frustrated colleagues of mine who are either conservative or libertarian have posed the rhetorical question, “When will those liberals learn?” Surely, at some point (they reason), liberals will recognise that bailouts, entitlements, and a “planned” society simply do not work. It’s not even a question of whether liberalism is a laudable concept. The problem is that it just… doesn’t… work.

  Of course, my colleagues are correct in their appraisal of the liberal concept. Unfortunately, they are gravely mistaken in their belief that there comes a point at which the liberal “bubble” pops and suddenly all liberals wake up and smell the coffee.

  Truth be told, as long as governments can benefit from maintaining a strong liberal consciousness in their citizenry, and as long as they can count on the media to maintain that consciousness, it will always be possible to convince liberal thinkers that, whatever negative events have taken place in a given country, they are the fault of the “enemy”—the non-liberal contingent.

  But, surely, when there is clear-cut evidence that liberal policies have failed, liberals must accept that liberalism is an economic and social dead end. No, I’m afraid not. Let’s look at how just three examples are likely to play out—not as we’d like to see them play out, but how they will play out in reality.

  When the bailouts end, the economy will collapse. Liberals will then grasp that bailouts do not work. Not so, I’m afraid. Although endless QE is as implausible as perpetual motion, when it is finally halted, the economy will inevitably crash, and crash badly—made worse by QE. Will liberals then realise the failure of QE? No, they will only argue that the only problem was that it was halted—that, had it continued, it would eventually have saved the day.

  No liberal will hazard a guess as to what amount of QE or length of time would have created salvation; however, the blame for the crash will be placed squarely at the feet of the greedy One Percent, whom the liberals will say “engineered the end of QE in order to impoverish and enslave the middle class.” Liberals will be more committed than ever to government spending as a solution.

  When cities such as Bradford in the UK or Detroit in the US reach fiscal collapse, liberals will realise that ever-increasing entitlements are simply not sustainable, that such tax-based benefit programmes drive out thriving industries, leaving the poor behind, in a dying metropolis. Again, this will not happen. Instead of learning the obvious lesson, liberals will redouble their belief in collectivism. They will reason that the government had successfully protected inner city workers through benefit programmes. However, big business, wanting to create slaves of workers, sent jobs overseas, to countries where enslavement by the rich is still possible.

  By doing so, they removed tax dollars from the system, causing the impoverishment of inner-city dwellers, destroying their lives. Rather than abandon social programmes as ineffective, liberals will set about creating massive relocation programmes, such as moving the disenfranchised inner-city people to areas where there is sufficient local business for taxation to continue supporting those on public assistance. In so doing, those areas that were previously economically viable will also be bled to the point of fiscal failure, spreading the disease. However, the liberal conclusion will remain the same: “The problem is the greedy rich.”

  When the government has fully morphed into a dictatorial police state, liberals will realise that governmental overreach has destroyed their liberty. Again, this will not be the liberal view when the time comes. Instead, they will conclude, as they do now, that freedom is a small price to pay for safety. They will, therefore, not only accept, but encourage the government to redouble its Gestapo approach every time a lone gunman fires into a classroom. And any single such incident will be cause for a nationwide ramping-up of policing. (If no lone gunman appears on the scene just prior to a planned ramping-up, a suitable incident can always be created by the government.)

  In each of the above cases, nothing is learned by liberals, except that they were right all along: “Don’t trust the conservatives. They are evil and will destroy all good in society.”

  These three examples should be sufficient to demonstrate that there will be no magic day when liberals figure out the failings of collectivism. In fact, quite the opposite will be true. Just as any government benefits from its own expansion of power, so governments and the media propaganda systems will ensure good that the EU and US will only become more liberal over time.

  Throughout history, a basic truism has been evident: Dependency upon government is a disease. Once it has been caught, it becomes chronic and does not reverse itself in a population until the system collapses under its own weight.

  A good example of this is East Germany in the early 1990’s. In 1987, US President Reagan famously delivered the words in Berlin, “Mister Gorbachev, tear down this wall.” His words were heard so loudly that Mister Gorbachev did, indeed, tear down the wall. Almost immediately, West Berliners, thrilled to be reunited with their brothers to the East, created thousands of job opportunities for East Germans. East Germans were equally thrilled, anticipating that they might now have larger apartments, higher pay, and possibly own televisions and cars. However, East Germans did not respond well to the standards of the West, feeling that employers were too harsh in their requirements and the benefits were not what they had been used to.

  East and west re-unified, but the transition was not a smooth one.

  But, before we place all the criticism on liberals, it is well to note that, in both the EU and US, conservatives often tend to be just as dogmatic in their assessments. Whilst conservatives arguably may have a better grasp than liberals as to fiscal realities, they, too, are continuously programmed to adhere to a fixed group of perceptions.

  Conservatives and liberals are both programmed to maintain ongoing opposition to each other. Conservatives are perceived as greedy and evil by liberals; liberals are perceived as naïve and stupid by conservatives. The more they can be polarised from each other, the more governments may make use of the polarity as a distraction from their own actions. The more conservatives and liberals place the blame on each other, the more governments may present themselves as the referee, whist, in fact, they do all they can to expand the mutual animosity.

  When people are angry, they do not think straight. The angrier they become, the more reason goes out the window. Consequently, the more a government can stir up its minions to attack each other, the more power the government has to impose ever-greater controls on the population. In a conservative administration, a government will institute greater social controls. In the following liberal administration, the government will institute greater economic controls. And the police state will be increased under both administrations.

  The net effect is overall increased dominance by government. Under the two-party system, this dominance is not only tolerated by the populace, but encouraged.

  The day never comes when a people convince their government to “lighten up.” Relief only comes when an overly-powerful governmental system collapses under its own weight.

  *  *  *

  Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can practically do to change the course of these trends in motion. The best you can and should do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible, and even profit from the situation. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey and his colleagues just released an urgent new PDF report that explains what could come next and what you can do about it. Click here to download it now.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 22:45

• China Has Set Up Dozens Of Unofficial Police Stations Around The World: Report
  China Has Set Up Dozens Of Unofficial Police Stations Around The World: Report

  The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has opened dozens of unofficial police stations around the world, including at least three in Toronto, Canada, according to a September report from human rights NGO, Safeguard Defenders.

  

  The report claims that China has been engaging in “long-arm policing” around the world in what has been dubbed the “110 overseas police stations,” named after the police emergency number in China; 110.

  The report has identified 54 Chinese overseas police stations spanning 30 countries – which are under the jurisdiction of two local-level police services in China; the Fuzhou Public Security Bureau in Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, and the Qingtian County police in Zhejiang Province.

  Local media is now step-by-step investigating many of these stations, with SD’s help, and we have collected lots of data on many of them, to push understanding about these stations further.

  Much more to come on this topic. https://t.co/NEguhacBOf pic.twitter.com/fIKg06IGo0

  — Safeguard Defenders (保护卫士) (@SafeguardDefend) September 23, 2022

  More via the Epoch Times;

  Peter Dahlin, founder and director of Safeguard Defender and co-author of the report, says that following the release of his organization’s findings, security police or related government agencies from North America and Europe have approached his organization asking “to sit down and have a briefing discussion” on the Chinese operations overseas.

  “So they are certainly aware of it, at least in some countries,” Dahlin told The Epoch Times.

  More Locations

  While the Chinese authorities say these police stations are created to better serve its overseas nationals, the report noted that those stations have been used to “persuade” up to 230,000 Chinese nationals to “voluntarily” return to China to face criminal proceedings between April 2021 and July 2022.

  “Persuasion to return” is a key method of the Chinese regime’s “involuntary returns” operations, which include its “Operation Fox Hunt” and the broader “Sky Net” campaign, according to Safeguard Defenders. Many of the targets for persuasion to return were overseas Chinese allegedly involved in telecommunication fraud, though the report said a number of non-suspects and their family members in China have also been targeted for police harassment and intimation.

  Dahlin said that in addition to the three stations in Toronto—two in Markham and one in Scarborough, whose locations were published in a Chinese state media outlet—there are likely other unofficial Chinese police stations either existing or being established in Canada, though they have yet to be discovered.

  “We’ve also seen a [Chinese] government notice that said that 10 different provinces should launch these types of operations on a pilot basis,” he told The Epoch Times, pointing to the report’s citation of a July 5, 2018, news release issued by the Chinese regime.

  “So, we have two of these operations uncovered [in Fujian Province and Zhejiang Province]. There might be eight more provinces doing this that could have their own stations, and we have not been able to track down that information yet. That’s why we keep saying that … we believe and we have good reason to think that there are more [overseas Chinese police stations].”

  The news release is in relation to the Chinese State Council’s 2018 “Work Plan for the Supervision of the National Special Struggle Against Gang Crimes.” A Chinese state media reported in January 2019 that Beijing had conducted a first-round one-month supervision training from July to September 2018 in the 10 provinces of Hebei, Shanxi, Liaoning, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Sichuan.

  Another report that year, in April 2019, said the regime had completed a second-round training for another 11 provinces, including Zhejiang Province where the Qingtian police service is located.

  Given the large Chinese diaspora population in Vancouver, Dahlin noted that he would find it “very strange” if the city didn’t have at least one 110 police station.

  ‘Transnational Repression’

  Safeguard Defenders says its September report is part of its ongoing monitoring of China’s growing global transnational repression. Dahlin said the report came on the heels of another report by his organization, titled “Involuntary Returns—report exposes long-arm policing overseas.”

  That earlier report, published in January 2022, looked at the Chinese regime’s claim in December 2021 that its Sky Net operations, along with partner Operation Fox Hunt, have successfully brought some 10,000 “fugitives” back to China from around the globe since 2014, when Fox Hunt was launched as part of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign.

  Those operations target what Dahlin described as “high-value targets.” Officially, Sky Net says it only targets economic criminals and officials accused of crimes like corruption or bribery, according to the Safeguard Defenders report, but Dahlin said Sky Net has been found to also target human rights defenders. Operations against high-value targets are run by the Chinese central police, whereas those involved in lower-level crimes like fraud—who are considered low-value targets—are tracked by the local Chinese police, Dahlin said.

  “The most common method to do this is to persuade them to return ‘voluntarily.’ We’ve also had a number of cases where [Beijing] sent agents—Chinese police officers, undercover—to the target countries; we have a number of people in the U.S. being indicted for this,” he said.

  A third way, Dahlin said, is to use kidnappings. He noted that his organization has identified 22 cases of kidnapping.

  Although his organization hasn’t found any cases of direct kidnapping in Canada, Dahlin said that in Canada and the United States, the Chinese regime does “a lot more [of] sending secret agents to intimidate people and that type of operations.”

  When asked about the severity of the Chinese overseas operations, Dahlin said the impacts on Canada is “certainly worse than Europe.”

  “Canada has such a significant Chinese diaspora community—much bigger than pretty much all of Europe together—so certainly, there’s a lot more people at risk in Canada,” he said, adding that Canada, the United States, and Australia are “the big three” destinations when it comes to Chinese asylum-seekers and relocation.

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 22:25

• Hunter Biden Laptop Whistleblower Speaks Out 2 Years Later
  Hunter Biden Laptop Whistleblower Speaks Out 2 Years Later

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Tony Bobulinski, the former Hunter Biden associate who came forward in 2020 about messages on the younger Biden’s laptop, said the FBI never followed up with him despite promising to.

  

  During an interview with Fox News’s Tucker Carlson on Monday, Bobulinski asserted that former FBI agent Timothy Thibault—who was accused by GOP senators of having an animus against Trump and slow-walking the Hunter Biden investigation—never got back to him when Bobulinski came forward with the information ahead of the 2020 election.

  “Tim Thibault, in his last discussion with my legal counsel, said, ‘Listen, we know Tony’s cooperating. We appreciate all the information he’s provided. We will follow up with you. We are definitely going to have him come in for a follow-up interview, or spend some more time on this,’” Bobulinski told Carlson. “And I haven’t heard from him since. Nor have my lawyers.”

  Bobulinski in the interview again asserted that President Joe Biden was highly involved in his son’s overseas business operations. The president has denied that he had knowledge of Hunter Biden’s finances or deals.

  How is the Biden crime family structured? Our Exclusive interview with Tony Bobulinski. 8 PM ET. Only on @FoxNews. pic.twitter.com/sPR0KT5Fd0

  — Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) October 4, 2022

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  “There are hundreds of data points that Joe Biden was acting in—in a capitalistic term, I would say the chairman,” Bobulinski told Carlson.

  In October 2020, Bobulinski came forward to the media and revealed Joe Biden’s involvement in his son’s business, including with a Chinese energy company CEFC.

  In one email sourced from the infamous laptop, the elder Biden was named as the “big guy” by Hunter Biden because of the 10 percent cut he allegedly received from CEFC. Bobulinski corroborated the authenticity of those emails and messages.

  Bobulinski accused the Biden family of being “compromised” by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials due to their business deals with individuals and companies connected to the CCP, adding that it’s impossible Joe Biden “can’t be influenced in some manner based on the history that they have with CEFC.”

  

  ‘Chairman’

  “The chairman of JPMorgan doesn’t take eight meetings down with the people, you know, analyzing companies. The chairman serves a purpose, right? He’s a figurehead,” Bobulinski told Carlson. “He shows up in meetings, shakes hands, advises, you know, has faith in his team. Effectively, that was Joe Biden’s role in the Biden family business ventures and around the world. And not just my venture.”

  Bobulinski noted that President Biden “was adamant to the American people that he had no knowledge of his family’s business deals” but asked: “How, if he had zero knowledge of that, could he be telling his son that he’s in the clear” regarding an article from the New York Times on Hunter Biden’s work with a Chinese company.

  He was referring to a voicemail that Biden left his son regarding the NY Times report in 2018, telling him: “I think you’re clear.” That story delved into Hunter Biden’s deals with a Chinese oil tycoon, Ye Jianming.

  Retirement

  In August, Thibault left the FBI following several letters sent to FBI leaders by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). The lawmakers have publicly accused Thibault of meddling in the Hunter Biden investigation and said that whistleblowers came forward with those claims.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 22:05

• 'Burn Down The System': Another Leftist Teacher Caught By Project Veritas Indoctrinating Students
  ‘Burn Down The System’: Another Leftist Teacher Caught By Project Veritas Indoctrinating Students

  Leftists and the mainstream media continue to gaslight the public and claim that ideological grooming of children by teachers is not happening in schools; that this is a “conspiracy theory.” 

  And yet, multiple times a month new leftist teachers are exposed bragging about their brainwashing of other people’s children into the woke fold. 

  This is why US educational scores and testing scores are sinking, and this is why “trans trenders” are becoming prominent in the past 5 years among zennials. 

  There is a widespread active effort in public schools by teachers and sometimes district officials to push extreme social justice propaganda. 

  It’s not conspiracy theory, it’s a concrete reality.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 21:45

• Supreme Court Declines To Hear Case On DOJ 'Filter Teams' Used After FBI Trump Raid
  Supreme Court Declines To Hear Case On DOJ ‘Filter Teams’ Used After FBI Trump Raid

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear whether the Department of Justice (DOJ) can use its so-called “filter teams,” including the one that is being used to review documents seized at former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago.

  

  In the Korf v. United States case, the nine justices declined to hear a writ of certiorari (pdf) that questioned the legality of the filter team protocols. The rules allow agents and prosecutors who aren’t assigned to a case to examine seized materials that are claimed to be privileged before a judge issues a ruling.

  Like the vast majority of cases the Supreme Court declines to hear, the justices on Monday did not provide an explanation why it rejected the Korf petition.

  The case pertained to a DOJ money laundering probe that claimed that the use of a filter team was a violation of the Constitution’s 6th Amendment right to counsel.

  “Only after the filter team has reviewed the documents would a court rule on whether privilege applies. That procedure needlessly and harmfully exposes assertedly privileged communications to the government’s eyes,” lawyers for Mordechai Korf, who the DOJ targeted with a civil forfeiture complaint in January, said in their filing.

  “It undermines essential protections for the adversary system,” the lawyers continued. “And it jeopardizes the confidentiality needed for the applicable privileges to serve their vital purposes.”

  Trump Case

  If the Supreme Court ruled on the case, it may have provided clarity for the DOJ and Trump’s legal team following the raid.

  In September, a district judge sided with Trump’s team in appointing a special master to review documents that were taken during the raid on Aug. 8 that the former president said was unprecedented and politically motivated.

  Lawyers for the DOJ confirmed the agency used a filter team to start its review of the documents that were collected during the FBI search, according to court filings. DOJ attorneys further argued that because a preliminary review of the documents was completed, it would not be necessary to appoint a special master.

  A Sept. 1 court filing from Trump, meanwhile, asserted that the DOJ filter team never communicated with his team following the FBI raid.

  “Never has an argument against ‘interference’ better underscored the need for judicial involvement,” the filing read. “All of this in the context of a unilateral filter team operation that to-date has never made any contact with counsel for the Movant, another historic first for DOJ.”

  His lawyers suggested that the DOJ team would possibly “impugn, leak, and publicize selective aspects” of their probe to damage Trump.

  The former president, who said the FBI-seized materials were declassified by him, has long argued the FBI and DOJ have unfairly targeted him since when he was a candidate during the 2016 election.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 21:25

• Biden Announces $625M More Ukraine Defense Aid In Zelensky Phone Call
  Biden Announces $625M More Ukraine Defense Aid In Zelensky Phone Call

  The White House has continued its strong stance and denunciations against Russia’s “sham referendums” in Ukraine’s east – now being formalized in Russian parliament – while unveiling a new $625 million security assistance package for Ukraine.

  The new aid package, which brings the total defense assistance pledged by the United States since the start of the war to a whopping $16.8 billion, was announced in relation with Tuesday’s phone call between President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Vince President Kamala Harris was also in on the call. 

  Biden and Harris vowed the US “will never recognize Russia’s purported annexation of Ukrainian territory,” according to a readout. “President Biden pledged to continue supporting Ukraine as it defends itself from Russian aggression for as long as it takes, including the provision today of a new $625 million security assistance package that includes additional weapons and equipment, including [High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems], artillery systems and ammunition, and armored vehicles,” the readout said.

  

  A separate statement by Secretary Blinken indicated the new weapons package will be the “second under presidential drawdown authority, and includes four High Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems, 16 155 mm howitzers, 16 105 mm howitzers, 75,000 155mm artillery rounds, 500 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds and 1,000 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine Systems, among other equipment.”

  Artillery munitions resupplies are said be among the most urgent requirements as Ukraine continues its so far successful counteroffensives in the east and south. Russia’s Putin has called up some 300,000 reservists in response.

  Echoing the contents of the Biden-Zelensky call, Blinken stressed that the Russian annexation move will only strengthen Washington’s resolve in supporting Ukraine: 

  “Recent developments from Russia’s sham referenda and attempted annexation to new revelations of brutality against civilians in Ukrainian territory formerly controlled by Russia only strengthens our resolve. United with our Allies and partners from 50 nations, we are delivering the arms and equipment that Ukraine’s forces are utilizing so effectively today in a successful counter-offensive to take back their lands seized illegally by Russia.”

  As for the ongoing counteroffensive, there are now signs that Russian frontlines in the south are being rapidly penetrated by the Ukrainian advance to recapture occupied territory.

  According to a Tuesday report in The Moscow Times, “Russia’s forces occupying Ukraine’s southern Black Sea region of Kherson have suffered serious territorial losses to Kyiv’s troops over recent days, maps published by Moscow’s Defense Ministry showed Tuesday.”

  #Ukraine 🇺🇦: Ukrainian forces have entered the village of Dudchany in northern #Kherson as they continue their advance south. pic.twitter.com/GV8gNkrz29

  — Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) October 4, 2022

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  “The maps included in Tuesday’s daily military briefing showed that Russian forces are no longer in control of the village of Dudchany on the west bank of the river Dnipro, where Ukraine’s forces have been pushing to reclaim territory captured at the start of Moscow’s offensive,” the report said.

  The HIMARS in particular have been touted as a gamechanger on the battlefield, as it gives Ukraine’s army the ability to reach deep into Russian supply lines and key forward operating bases as well.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 21:05

• Judge Grants Permanent Injunction Against Philadelphia Mayor's Ban On Guns In City Recreation Facilities
  Judge Grants Permanent Injunction Against Philadelphia Mayor’s Ban On Guns In City Recreation Facilities

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

  A Philadelphia judge on Monday blocked the city from banning guns at parks and recreation facilities after a gun rights lobbying group argued that the city does not have authority to do so.

  Judge Joshua H. Roberts of the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas issued a permanent injunction (pdf) against the ban and permanently enjoined the city against enforcing the directive.

  Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney, a Democrat, signed an executive order (pdf) in September banning firearms in all city-owned recreational facilities, stating that it was “crucial to take steps” to ensure that the city’s recreational facilities are “a safe place for children and all of the Philadelphia community to gather.”

  

  The executive order stated that since 2019, nearly 300 reported shooting incidents have occurred at city recreation facilities, in addition to dozens of other incidents of violence with a deadly weapon.

  It also cited the Sept. 9 death of Tiffany Fletcher, an employee of the Mill Creek Recreation Center in West Philadelphia. Fletcher was shot and killed while working, the order said.

  The order went into effect immediately and prohibited anyone carrying a firearm from entering any indoor or outdoor facility operated by the city’s Department of Parks and Recreation.

  Such places include recreational centers, ballfields, courts, pools, and playgrounds but excluded park trails and “passive park space,” according to the order.

  

  An AR-15 upper receiver nicknamed “The Balloter” is seen for sale at Firearms Unknown, a gun store in Oceanside, Calif., on April 12, 2021. (Bing Guan/Reuters)

  Ban ‘Directly Violates Pennsylvania Law’

  It allowed for individuals carrying guns in such places to be treated as trespassers if they refused to leave.

  Less than 24 hours after signing the order, Gun Owners of America (GOA), a nonprofit organization aimed at protecting the right to keep and bear arms, filed suit against the order in state court.

  GOA argued in a complaint (pdf) that the mayor’s order “directly violates Pennsylvania law, and may not be enforced” because the Preemption Statute expressly prohibits any county, municipality, or township from passing gun-control measures.

  “Pennsylvania law expressly preempts the Mayor from banning firearms in public recreational facilities. Nonetheless, Mayor Jim Kenney has attempted to do so. He may not. Pennsylvania law is ‘crystal clear’: regulation of firearms is a matter of statewide concern, and must be undertaken by the General Assembly,” they wrote.

  Pennsylvania Law states that “no county, municipality or township may in any manner regulate the lawful ownership, possession, transfer or transportation of firearms, ammunition or ammunition components when carried or transported for purposes not prohibited by the laws of this Commonwealth.”

  “The law in Pennsylvania couldn’t be clearer,” Andrew Austin, GOA’s attorney in the case, said in a statement following Monday’s ruling.

  …

  A spokesperson for Mayor Kenney said the city is “disappointed” by the latest ruling while citing recent shooting incidents at recreation facilities across the city.

  “We are reviewing today’s decision and are disappointed by the outcome, which as it stands prevents City employees from making the reasonable request that anyone with a firearm or deadly weapon leave a recreation facility,” Sarah Peterson, Deputy Communications Director for Mayor Kenney, told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement.

  “The Mayor’s Executive Order was intended to prevent the senseless violence that is interfering with the safety of children, families, and staff in what must be safe places,” Peterson added.

  The City of Philadelphia is expected to appeal the Judge’s order, which GOA said would result in the city continuing to “frivolously waste taxpayer money on their unlawful anti-gun agenda.”

  …

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 20:45

• Nearly Half Of Americans Making Six-Figures Living Paycheck To Paycheck
  Nearly Half Of Americans Making Six-Figures Living Paycheck To Paycheck

  Roughly 60% of Americans say they’re living paycheck to paycheck – a figure which hasn’t budged much overall from last year’s 55% despite inflation hitting 40-year highs, according to a recent LendingClub report.

  

  Even people earning six figures are feeling the strain, with 45% reporting living paycheck to paycheck vs. 38% last year, CNBC reports.

  “More consumers living paycheck to paycheck indicates that many are continuing to lose their financial stability,” said LendingClub financial health officer, Anuj Nayar.

  The consumer price index, which measures the average change in prices for consumer goods and services, rose a higher-than-expected 8.3% in August, driven by increases in food, shelter and medical care costs.

  Although real average hourly earnings also rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, they remained down 2.8% from a year ago, which means those paychecks don’t stretch as far as they used to. -CNBC

  Meanwhile, Bank of America found that 71% of workers say their income isn’t keeping pace with inflation – resulting in a five-year low in terms of financial security.

  

  “It is no secret that prices have been increasing for everyday Americans — not only in the goods and services they purchase but also in the interest rates they’re paying to fund their lives,” said Nayar, who noted that people are relying more on credit cards and carry a higher monthly balance, making them financially vulnerable. “This can have detrimental consequences for someone who pays the minimum amount on their credit cards every month.”

  According to an Aug. 30 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, credit card balances increased by $46 billion from last year, becoming the second-biggest source of overall debt last quarter.

  

  And as Bloomberg noted last month, more US consumers are saddled with credit card debt for longer periods of time. According to a recent survey by CreditCards.com, 60% of credit card debtors have been holding this type of debt for at least a year, up 50% from a year ago, while those holding debt for over two years is up 40%, from 32%, according to the online credit card marketplace.

  

  And while total credit-card balances remain slightly lower than pre-pandemic levels, inflation and rising interest rates are taking a toll on the already-stretched finances of US households.

  About a quarter of respondents said day-to-day expenses are the primary reason why they carry a balance. Almost half cite an emergency or unexpected expense, including medical bills and home or car repair.

  The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates for the fifth time this year next week. Credit-card rates are typically directly tied to the Fed Funds rate, and their increase along with a softening economy may lead to higher delinquencies. 

  Total consumer debt rose $23.8 billion in July to a record $4.64 trillion, according to data from the Federal Reserve. -Bloomberg

  The Fed’s figures include credit card and auto debt, as well as student loans, but does not factor in mortgage debt.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 20:25

• Former Clinton Advisor Says Hillary May Run In 2024
  Former Clinton Advisor Says Hillary May Run In 2024

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  Following comments criticising the handling of mass immigration on the southern border, a long time Clinton advisor says that it appears Hillary may be positioning herself for another presidential run in 2024.

  

  The New York Post reports that strategist Dick Morris believes Hillary is moving toward presenting herself as a “moderate” centrist candidate in 2024.

  “I see more and more signs that Hillary’s going to run,” Morris, a former aide to Bill Clinton, said during a radio interview.

  Morris said the fact that Hillary is acknowledging that most Americans “do not believe in open borders,” is a tell tale sign.

  “These are all signals that she is going to be the moderate candidate for president. She’s going to say after the election, ‘See, the left cost us the House and the Senate. If we stay with a left-wing candidate in 2024, we’re going to lose the White House. I’m the only one who will tack to the center and give us a chance at victory​,​’​” Morris said.

  The political consultant added that “it’s the strategy I designed for Bill Clinton in 1992” and that “​Hillary is just dusting off Bill‘s playbook that I wrote for him and applying it herself this year.”

  Listen (relevant part starts at 46 mins):

  Morris previously recently predicted that Democrats are going to reject Biden for a second run in favour of Clinton in order to avoid the potential of “some crazy radical like Gavin Newson, Bernie Sanders. Maybe even AOC herself” becoming a front runner.

  “That’s going to drive the Democratic Party leaders to go to Hillary and say, ‘Hey look. Please run again. We need you to save us from the crazy left,’” ​Morris said, adding “Otherwise we’ll have Sanders as our candidate. We’ll lose Congress by a ton. And we’ll get wiped out in the presidential race.’”

  During an MSNBC interview a fortnight ago, Hillary noted “nobody wants open borders who has any idea of how government and countries work.”​

  Hillary recently declared that she would never run for President again, but that hasn’t stopped the rumours from circulating.

  Meanwhile, despite continued questions over his mental degradation, Joe Biden has reportedly told Al Sharpton that he plans to run again for president in 2024.

  In related news, an underreported piece by Breitbart last week detailed how Hillary aides reportedly seriously believed that Donald Trump, acting as a Russian agent, planned to poison Hillary with some sort of deadly handshake during the presidential debates in 2016.

  The revelation is made in a forthcoming book by New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman, who details how “During preparations for the third debate, Clinton’s team was disrupted by a warning from the husband of Senator Dianne Feinstein, who said he had been told that Russians might try to poison Clinton through a handshake with Trump, to inflict a dramatic health episode during the debate.”

  While the book claims Hillary personally didn’t take the threat seriously, “Her communications director, Jennifer Palmieri, took the prospect seriously enough to check it out,” Haberman writes.

  Interestingly, there was no handshake at the beginning of the third debate:

  *  *  *

  Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

  In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 20:05

• Amazon Reportedly Halts Corporate Hiring For Retail Business
  Amazon Reportedly Halts Corporate Hiring For Retail Business

  America’s second-largest employer announced a hiring freeze following an earlier announcement that US job openings plunged in August. This could be even more evidence the labor market is cooling. 

  According to an internal memo obtained by The New York Times, Amazon recruiters have been instructed to halt all hiring for “corporate roles, including technology positions, globally in its Amazon stores business, which covers the company’s retail and operations, and accounts for the bulk of Amazon’s sales” by mid-month. As of Monday, 20,000 openings were posted in that division. The memo stated that the company’s cloud computing division wouldn’t be impacted.

  The memo stated recruiters are instructed to tell all job candidates that the Seattle tech giant wasn’t in a hiring freeze. It went on to say all job requisitions should close immediately. It said new job openings would be available until 1Q23. 

  And why would Amazon recruiters lie to job candidates that the company isn’t in a hiring freeze, but according to an internal memo obtained by NYT, they are? It could cause worried people to stop applying to unfrozen departments like AWS.  

  Professional community website Blind had one anonymous account post four days ago: “Amazon hiring freeze is real.” Here’s a snapshot of what the alleged Amazon employee said about the freeze:

  

  “The corporate hiring freeze is the latest sign that cost-controlling measures are hitting Amazon’s core retail and technology teams as well,” NYT said. Perhaps this reflects a faltering consumer, battered by negative real wage growth, the highest inflation in decades, maxed out credit cards, and personal savings on empty. 

  Amazon’s hiring freeze comes amid the threats of a recession because of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening to combat inflation. Meta and Google have been other big tech companies to pause hiring as the economic outlook remains cloudy. And today’s drop in job openings in August confirms labor market cooling is likely underway. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 19:45

• Is Canada On The Verge Of A Political Revolution?
  Is Canada On The Verge Of A Political Revolution?

  Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

  Canada like many other countries may be on the cusp of a political revolution. To the chagrin of the mainstream media in Canada, Pierre Poilievre has been elected the leader of Canada’s Conservative opposition party. As a result of his win, attacks on Poilievre have dramatically increased. He has been declared as “dangerous” and even reckless. In short, Canadian media is busy painting him as a mini Donald Trump. 

  In what is seen as a move to appease many of his critics Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently declared an end to Canada’s vaccine mandate. This includes the policy of requiring travelers entering Canada to provide their vaccine passports and a slew of other restrictions and requirements. This took effect on September 30th and was considered partly in response to the growing threat of the populist sentiment popping up in Canada. Many Canadians had come to view Trudeau’s vaccine dictate as overtly authoritarian, it reeked of government overreach and Gestapo-style tactics.

  

  The Poilievre surge has resulted in Canada’s mainstream media ramping up the fear factor by declaring Poilievre’s recent win as dangerous. Some of the recent headlines, such as the one to the left put out by the Toronto Star, leave little question as to the color of paint they wish to use. The headline in the Tyee was also unkind, it read, “Pierre Poilievre Is a Symptom of the Conservative’s Sickness”

  The surge in Canada is occurring at the same time the populist movement is strengthening in several other countries. For instance, in Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing bloc is celebrating a historic victory and its clear majority. Meloni’s victory came despite European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen threatening to bring the EU mechanism to bear against Italy if Italian voters placed Giorgia Meloni in power.

  Even after the threat, the latest election in Italy resulted in a landslide win for the conservative coalition and Italy’s first woman prime minister. Following her win, Georgia Meloni, gave a rousing victory speech that directly exposed the far-left invasion of western nations, globalism, and the poisonous collusion with woke corporations to silence dissent. Meloni called for a return to freedom, and the response from the media was to call her a “fascist.” 

  Meloni Called For A Return To Freedom

  A two-minute video of a Meloni speech went viral as the votes in Italy were being counted. In it, the new Italian Prime Minister eloquently describes that Italians and human beings, in general, are not mere identity-less consumers and economic playthings of the ivory tower technocrat class. Apparently, her attitude resonated with voters that have simply had enough.

  

  Meloni’s win is just a small part of an ongoing trend. It should also be noted that in this year’s municipal elections in the Czech Republic the populist ANO party, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, came in first in eight of 13 regional capitals. Babiš, considered a close ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, narrowly lost the Czech national elections in 2021. These latest numbers indicate that his party is clawing back voters due to a souring economy and growing cost-of-living crisis.

  Opinion polls, controlled by the mainstream media, often understate the strength of right-wing candidates. Another place where the same populist dynamic has flared up is Brazil. On Sunday, President Jair Bolsonaro’s numbers far exceeded pollsters’ consensus. Heading into the election a major poll pointed to former left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva winning by a 14% margin. In the end, Lula only received 48.4% of the votes forcing the two men into a run-off election on Oct 30. At this point, it seems that momentum is on Bolsanaro’s side. 

  While political leaders like Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden strut around on the media stage accusing ideological opponents of being “enemies of democracy and dangerous,” their mostly conservative rivals talk about restoring power to the people. What could be more democratic than that? We can only hope enough of those people that feel their country is headed down the wrong path wake up and question what they are being told.

  The one thing Poilievre, Meloni, and most of the politicians spouting populist or conservative messages have in common is that they are hated and branded as dangerous by the mainstream media. It could be argued that much of this is rooted in the fact these politicians denounce all notions the globalist elites should be allowed to expand their power and rule. In short, they are willing to swim against the tide.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 19:25

• Now That Twitter Belongs To Elon, Here Is What He Will Do To The Platform In His Own Words
  Now That Twitter Belongs To Elon, Here Is What He Will Do To The Platform In His Own Words

  Now that the dramatic, if pointless and expensive, interlude of Musk trying to sabotage his own (extremely overpriced) purchase of Twitter is finally over with Musk conceding to buy the social network at the original proposed price of $54.20.

  So what’s next? Will Musk keep Twitter as is, or will he burn it down, fire all its employees,and rebuild it from the ground up? Conveniently, Musk’s Twitter-linked text messages, publicly released as part of the Twitter lawsuit legal disclosure, provide enough information for what Musk really wants in terms of a final product.

  Buying Twitter is an accelerant to creating X, the everything app

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 4, 2022

  First, as stated in the following exchange with Valor CEO Antonio Gracias, Musk believes in free speech. So much so that he finds Russia Today “quite entertaining” with “lots of bullshit but some good points too.”

  

  Musk expressed similar sentiment in the following exchange with ex-wife Talulah Jane (TJ) Riley, who was dismayed at the Babylon Bee’s suspension and who proposed to “buy Twitter and make it radically free speech”… or “delete it.”

  

  Musk then speaks to VC entrepreneur Jon Lonsdale, where they discuss Musk’s desire to make Twitter an open source algo because it’s important to “reign in big tech” and “our public square needs to not have arbitrary sketch censorship.” Musk’s response: “what we have right now is hidden corruption!“

  

  As an aside, a few weeks later, after it emerged that Musk had purchased a sizable stake in Twitter, Jon Lonsdale made an interesting observation: “I bet you the board doesn’t even get full reporting or see any report of the censorship decisions and little cabals going on there but they should – the lefties on the board likely want plausible deniability!”

  

  Things get more interesting in this exchange with Twitter founder Jack Dorsey, in which Jack echoed not only that Twitter must be an “open source protocol” but that it “can’t have an advertising model. Otherwise you have surface area that governments and advertisers will try to influence and control. If it has a centralized entity behind it, it will be attacked.” Jack’s conclusion: “this isn’t complicated work, it just has to be done right so it’s resilient to what has happened to twitter.” After a lengthy back and forth, Musk tells Jack that “it’s worth both trying to move Twitter in a better direction and doing something new that’s decentralized.”

  

  A quick tangent, in which we learn that it wasn’t just Elon seeking to buy Twitter, so was the J.P. Morgan of crypto, Sam-Bankman Fried: look for SBF to have a prominent role in the company going forward.

  

  And a second tangent: what is SBF’s net worth and how much money could he put into twitter: short answer to both: a lot.

  

  Another interesting exchange, this time with Mathias Dopfner, CEO of German media conglomerate Axel Springer, which owns a bunch of tabloids such as Bild, in which he says that if Musk buys it, Alex Springer would be willing to run twitter.

  

  An especially interesting exchange took place minutes after Musk revealed his Twitter stake with a person who, unlike everyone else in the disclosure, demanded to be unnamed. Due to the “sensitive” nature of his proposal “navigating how to let right-wingers back on Twitter… especially the boss himself”)we can only assume it is due to fear of being canceled by the radical left mob.

  

  Another exchange after Musk announced he was seeking a board seat is with the abovementioned Matthias Dopfner, head of Germany’s Axel Springer, who does everything in his power to make his personal media outlets painstakingly, boringly, crushingly woke and politically correct, who we learn is really just another hypocrite and closet “anti-woke”, suggesting to Musk that he create a marketplace for algos, “e.g., if you’re a snowflake and don’t want content that offends you pick another algorithm.” If only Dofpner would do the same with his empire of snowflake-catering tabloids. Amusingly, Dopfner has some other “actionable” recos, such as “solve free speech.” Oh ok. Here is the rest of what the CEO of one of the world’s biggest tabloid empires (and recent acquiror of Politico) wants to do:

  Status Quo: it is the de facto public town square, but It is a problem that it does not adhere to free speech principles. => so the core product is pretty good, but (i) it does not serve democracy, and (ii) the current business model is a dead end as reflected by flat share price.

  Goal: Make Twitter the global backbone of free speech, an open market place of ideas that truly complies with the spirit of the first amendment and shift the business model to a combination of ad-supported and paid to support quality

  Game Plan:

  1.) “Solve Free Speech”

  • 1-a) Step 1″ Make it censorship-FREE by radically reducing Terms of Services (now hundreds of pages) to the following: Twitter users agree to:
    • (1) Use our service to send spam or scam users,
    • (2) Promote violence,
    • (3) Post illegal pornography.
  • 1-b) Step 2: Make Twitter censorship-RESISTANT
    • Ensure censorship resistance by implementing measures that warrant that Twitter can’t be censored long term, regardless of which government and management
    • How? Keep pushing projects at Twitter that have been working on developing a decentralized social network protocol (e.g., BlueSky). It’s not easy, but the back-end must run on decentralized infrastructure, APIs should become open (back to the roots! Twitter started and became big with open APIs).
    • Twitter would be one of many clients to post and consume content.
    • Then create a marketplace for algorithms, e.g., if you’re a snowflake and don’t want content that offends you pick another algorithm.

  2.) “Solve Share Price” – Current state of the business:

  • Twitter’s ad revenues grow steadily and for the time being, are sufficient to fund operations.
  • MAUs are flat, no structural growth
  • Share price is flat, no confidence in the existing business model

  

  But while a lot of these ideas were inbounds to Musk, where things get really “insightful” is when Elon chats with his brother Kimbal, about his vision. We will publish these without commentary because, well, it’s well beyond our pay grade to comment on Musk’s “vision” – some peculiar cross between a social media, blockchain, a direct messaging app which stores messages forever, and all of it using some token (why not dogecoin).

  

  Here Jason Calacanis also chimes in with some ideas. His comments on De Sasntis are amusing.

  

  It continues a few days later, where Calacanis reveals he may be the next Twitter CEO, and Musk is receptive:

  

  And some more ideas from Calacanis:

  

  Finally, some good news for the liberals out there:

  

  While those were some of the key exchanges, there is much more in the full Musk text message discovery below:

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 19:05

• Former NSA Staffer Charged With Espionage After Trying To Sell Information To Undercover FBI Agent
  Former NSA Staffer Charged With Espionage After Trying To Sell Information To Undercover FBI Agent

  Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A former employee of the National Security Agency (NSA) was charged with espionage for allegedly trying to sell classified national defense information to an undercover agent he believed to be working for a foreign government, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) said.

  

  Jareh Sebastian Dalke, a 30-year-old Army veteran of Colorado Springs, Colorado, worked at the NSA as an information systems security designer from June 6 to July 1, 2022. According to the DOJ, Dalke used an encrypted email account to transmit excerpts of three classified documents he had obtained during his employment to an undercover FBI agent disguised as a representative of a foreign government.

  Dalke was arrested on Sept. 28, after he arrived at a public location in Denver, expecting to meet the undercover agent and transfer one additional classified document. He allegedly told the agent that he has a debt of $237,000, and asked for a “specific type of cryptocurrency” in exchange for the “highly sensitive information” he possessed. The FBI ended up sending him about $4,600 worth of cryptocurrency as a “good faith payment” to help with his financial problems.

  The information, according to an affidavit (pdf) supporting the criminal complaint, involves topics such as the threat assessment of the foreign country’s military offensive capabilities, a cryptographic program used by the U.S. government, and the threat assessment of U.S. defense capabilities, a portion of which relates to that foreign country.

  While the foreign government is not identified, the affidavit states that Dalke claimed to have reached out to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, or SVR, to make that he was actually communicating with a foreign government entity “rather than Americans trying to stifle a patriot.”

  According to the affidavit, Dalke had expressed dissatisfaction with what the United States has become. “This country is not as great as it thinks it once was,” he allegedly said. “It is all about the businesses and their money, not anything about the people or those that serve it to include the military.”

  Dalke is charged with three violations of the Espionage Act, which makes it a crime to transmit or attempt to transmit national defense information to a foreign nation knowing the information could be used against the United States or to the advantage of a foreign nation. If convicted, he could face the death penalty or any number of years up to life in prison.

  The announcement comes as Edward Snowden, a former U.S. intelligence contractor who famously exposed the NSA’s massive domestic surveillance program in 2013 and has remained in exile in Russia ever since, was granted Russian citizenship.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 18:45

• South Korea & US Fire 4 Surface-To-Surface Missiles In Rare Response To North's Launch
  South Korea & US Fire 4 Surface-To-Surface Missiles In Rare Response To North’s Launch

  Update(1838ET): The United States and South Korea have “answered” Tuesday’s ultra-provocative North Korean launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile which flew directly over Japan, triggering nationwide emergency alerts warning Japanese citizens to take shelter. 

  Yonhap news is reporting that allied militaries of S.Korea and the US have now launched 4 surface-to-surface missiles into the East Sea, in a clear and rare “response to the provocation” from Pyongyang, during the overnight hours (local time). There are simultaneous though unconfirmed reports that one of the South Korean missiles may have failed or crashed soon after launch:

  BREAKING: South Korea military says one of its surface-to-surface missiles crashed soon after launch – News1

  — Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Rumors had already been circulating for hours prior to Seoul revealing the new missile launches in response, amid ongoing joint military drills with the US, of a large explosion or fire at the south’s Gangneug Airbase.

  Could the two be directly related, or coincidence? There’s still very little confirmed at this point.

  Reports of explosion(s) at Gangneug Airbase in South Korea. Seems to be a accident according to a military official https://t.co/9cwnqWzmlcpic.twitter.com/OtAlOT5mJQ

  — Faytuks News Δ (@Faytuks) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  An explosions has occurred within Gangneung Airbase, South Korea. The scope and scale of the damage here is unknown, but numerous fixed wing aircraft are stationed here. pic.twitter.com/4fbCteOrE2

  — The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * *

  Hours after North Korea launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile that soared over Japan for the first time since 2017, Japanese and US military warplanes carried out a joint exercise in response to Pyongyang’s recklessness, according to South China Morning Post, citing Japanese officials. 

  “As the security environment surrounding Japan grows increasingly severe, including North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile that flew over Japan, the Self-Defence Forces and the US military conducted a joint exercise,” the Joint Staff said in a statement.

  Eight Japanese and four US fighter jets conducted war drills in airspace west of Kyushu, the southwesternmost of Japan’s main islands. There were no further details in the statement about what defensive maneuvers the fighter jets were exercising. 

  Joint Staff continued: Forces “confirmed their readiness and demonstrated domestically and abroad the strong determination of Japan and the United States to deal with any situation.” 

  Earlier in the day, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held immediate discussions with the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral John Aquilino, about the missile launch. 

  Ahead of the joint exercise, Kishida told reporters Tokyo and Washington would “conduct a joint drill” to show they’re “taking swift action.”

  South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the North’s missile flew 2,800 miles, hitting an altitude of approximately 603 miles. The missile was launched around 0723 local time on Tuesday from the North’s Chagang province, which borders China. 

  As the missile flew over Japan, reaching speeds of March 17, the government issued warnings for citizens, urging everyone in the country to seek shelter as a ballistic missile was headed their way. The missile flew for 22 minutes and past northern Japan before plunging into the Pacific Ocean. 

  

  “This is an outrageous act following the recent repeated launches of ballistic missiles and we strongly denounce it,” Kishida said. 

  North Korea has conducted more than 20 missile tests this year, more than any other year. The Kim Jong Un regime seems angry as they recently rejected denuclearization talks with the US and South Korea. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 18:38

• Putin Spox Weighs In On Elon Musk's Attempt At Ukraine Peace Deal
  Putin Spox Weighs In On Elon Musk’s Attempt At Ukraine Peace Deal

  The Russian Presidency’s office has responded to billionaire Elon Musk’s “Russia-Ukraine Peace” Twitter poll which he put out Monday, and resulted in swift backlash among pundits who accused the Tesla and SpaceX founder of mimicking “pro-Russian” talking points. Musk pushed back against the avalanche of detractors, explaining that he’s interested in exploring ways to arrive at a peaceful settlement, and not continued escalation toward nuclear war.

  Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday told reporters, “We consider it very positive that a man like Musk is looking for a peaceful way out of the situation around Ukraine,” according to Interfax.

  

  Musk had floated the idea of “redoing” last week’s referendums on the four Ukrainian territories in the east joining the Russian Federation under UN supervision. He also controversially said that as basis of a peace deal Ukraine would have to permanently cede Crimea. 

  It was particularly the Crimea aspect which sparked an immediate backlash and pile-on of pundits, journalists, and even diplomats – on up to Ukrainian President Zelensky himself – who suggested this means Musk “supports Russia”.

  According to more of Peskov’s words via Interfax (machine translation): 

  At the same time, he recalled that from the very beginning, Russia advocated that the conditions put forward by Moscow be fulfilled through negotiations. Unlike many professional diplomats, Peskov noted, Musk is still trying to find ways to achieve peace.

  “Achieving peace without fulfilling Russia’s conditions is absolutely impossible. Many ideas there deserve attention,” he said

  But Peskov underscored there can be no “redo” of the referendums, given Moscow has already moved to bestow legal recognition of the four regions’ integration into Russia.

  Vast majority of the woke mob attacking him haven’t contributed anything to the Ukrainian war effort except a blue & yellow emoji.

  — David Sacks (@DavidSacks) October 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “And there can be nothing else here. Today the president will sign decrees, and this will become the territory of the Russian Federation. But I repeat once again, the fact itself is very positive, when such people think, try to think logically, what could be done, to switch to a peaceful course,” Peskov said.

  To review, Musk’s poll had laid out four proposals: 

  • Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.
  • Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
  • Water supply to Crimea assured. 
  • Ukraine remains neutral.

  After more than 2.7 million votes, of which Musk said many were bots attempting to skew the results, it’s clear that public opinion remains fiercely divided on the war, given sizeable groups on either side.

  Meanwhile Chinese state media pundit Hu Xijin pointed out the following…

  Elon Musk has released his personality too much, and he believes too much in the US and West’s “freedom of speech.” He will be taught a lesson. pic.twitter.com/nv4VU7rFIv

  — Hu Xijin 胡锡进 (@HuXijin_GT) October 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The final results were 40.9% “yes” on the Ukraine-Russia peace poll, and 59.1% rejecting it. And yet, tragically in terms of the current battlefield, a potential future peace deal or even ceasefire seems nowhere on the horizon at this moment.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 18:25

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Germans Panic-Buy Electric Heaters As Authorities Warn Of Winter Gas Shortage
  Germans Panic-Buy Electric Heaters As Authorities Warn Of Winter Gas Shortage

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

  German authorities have issued another dire warning about a possible shortage of natural gas over the winter, with fears that German households might be left in the cold, driving sales of electric heaters to soar in a spree of panic shopping.

  German Economy Minister Robert Habeck told Deutschlandfunk radio on Sept. 30 that the country is in an “extremely tense situation” when it comes to energy supply.

  “If we don’t save, if households don’t reduce consumption, we still risk not having enough gas in the winter,” he said.

  Europe’s biggest economy is struggling to cope with surging gas and electricity costs caused mostly by a collapse in Russian gas supplies to Europe, which Moscow has blamed on Western sanctions.

  

  German Economy and Climate Action Minister Robert Habeck speaks during a news conference on the future use of liquefied natural gas, in Berlin, Germany, on Aug. 16, 2022. (Lisi Niesner/File Photo/Reuters)

  Germany’s network regulator Bundesnetzagentur, which would be responsible for gas rationing in case of a supply emergency, said in a statement on Sept. 29 that household consumption was too high to be sustainable.

  Bundesnetzagentur chief Klaus Mueller called for “sustained austerity efforts,” saying that gas consumption by households and businesses in the prior week were “well above” consumption levels in prior years, calling the figures “sobering.”

  “Without significant cutbacks in the private sector, too, it will be difficult to avoid a gas shortage in winter,” he said in a statement, adding that cutbacks are needed even if temperatures continue to fall and even then there’s no guarantee of a “sure-fire success.”

  Mueller said Germany will be able get through the winter under three conditions: the country has to import more gas; the gas supplies of neighboring countries must remain stable; and each individual must cut back on gas consumption, “even if it gets even colder toward winter.”

  

  Pipes at the landfall facilities of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in Lubmin, Germany, on July 21, 2022. (Annegret Hilse/Reuters)

  Electric Heater Sales Soar

  Meanwhile, sales of electric heaters in Germany have soared amid gas-shortage fears as winter looms.

  Sales of electric heaters in Germany, between January and August 2022, have jumped 76 percent compared to the year-ago period, according to market research company Growth from Knowledge (GfK) data provided to German news outlet Deutsche Welle.

  It comes as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set out a $194 billion “defensive shield” that includes a gas price brake and a cut in sales tax for the fuel in a bid to protect businesses and households from the pain of soaring energy costs.

  Under the plans, which are expected to run until spring 2024, the government will introduce an emergency price brake on gas, the details of which will be announced next month. The government also is scrapping a planned gas levy meant to help firms struggling with high spot market prices.

  A temporary electricity price brake will subsidize basic consumption for consumers and small and medium-sized companies. Sales tax on gas will fall to 7 percent from 19 percent.

  In his remarks to Deutschlandfunk radio on Friday, Habeck said Germany’s gas price brake will be limited to covering 80 percent of normal household usage in an effort to encourage consumers to save energy and avoid a shortage.

  In a bid to help Germany make it through the winter, the European Commission, on Friday, approved a measure to compensate operators of five lignite-fired power plants to be on standby and ready to be activated in case of natural gas shortages.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 10/04/2022 – 02:00

• The Biggest Problem China Faces Isn't Real Estate
  The Biggest Problem China Faces Isn’t Real Estate

  Authored by Christopher Balding via The Epoch Times,

  After it joined the World Trade Organization in 2000 and anchored the Chinese yuan (a.k.a. renminbi) to the U.S. dollar, China linked its economy to the United States. Enforcing a fixed exchange rate regime with strict capital controls, China benefited from large inflows and relatively low-interest rates due largely to the low-interest rate environment in the United States. What happens to the Chinese economy when interest rates increase in the United States?

  

  Sovereign currency policy faces the intractable dilemma of what economists call the “impossible trinity.” Countries can have a fixed exchange rate, free capital flow, or sovereign monetary policy but must choose only two of three. Economics textbooks give clean and clear definitions of each. Still, in reality, China tried to manipulate each and come out worse due to its attempts to manipulate the laws of economics.

  Chinese Communist Party (CCP) technocrats attempted to create a system where they could enjoy the best of the three options and leave behind the worst parts. China implemented a quasi-fixed exchange rate, which is effectively a U.S. dollar index, with tightly controlled capital flows, and a semi-sovereign monetary policy.

  What almost no one noticed with the convoluted creation of Chinese currency policy attempting to adhere to the ‘impossible trinity’ was that for the last 20 years, China benefited from business cycle synchronization with the United States. Because the yuan was tied directly to the U.S. dollar and the United States kept interest rates low, China could keep its interest rates low.

  Now that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is raising interest rates, what impact will this have on China?

  • First, the days of easy money flows to China are over. For large parts of the last 20 years, Chinese interest rates were 3-5 percent higher than the United States. With either a fixed or sem-fixed exchange rate, this gave investors in China access to easy higher returns. With portfolio returns and foreign direct investment based upon interest rate differentials between the United States and China, this drew investor capital with fixed or heavily managed exchange rates creating easy returns. Investors have soured on China as an investment destination for a range of reasons. But when baseline returns are higher in U.S. government debt without any of the China issues, the financial motivation will dry up the biggest reason to send money.

  • Second, this will place enormous upward pressure on Chinese interest rates right as China’s economy is teetering. For most of the period since 2000, the Chinese and U.S. economies have been highly correlated. This allowed Chinese interest rates to follow the United States and enjoy a sustained period of low-cost money. However, now as the Fed is seeking to tamp down inflation and overheated demand, China is suffering through its weakest economy in probably post-opening up history. Rising interest rates with a teetering banking sector, high consumer debt, and a corporate sector suffering through a wave of defaults risk hyper charging a problem into a crisis. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) faces a trade-off of whether to keep the yuan tied to the U.S. dollar and raise interest rates or reduce the link and let the yuan sink.

  • Third, rising U.S. interest rates will exacerbate capital outflow pressures from China. When Chinese government interest rates were 3-5 percent higher than in the United States, money flowed to China, seeking higher returns. Now short duration, U.S. government debt yields more than similar Chinese government debt. Add in the weak corporate sector and real estate pressures, and Chinese investors see many reasons to move their money out of China.

  For countries like Japan or the United Kingdom, capital outflows mean declines in the currency. While China boasts $3 trillion in reserves, given the size of its economy and local financial market, that $3 trillion is actually a lot smaller than it appears. The United States now earns a higher rate of safe asset return with significantly less risk, and it becomes obvious why regulators warn banks and investors about moving capital out of China.

  China tries to square the circle of financial policy by ignoring the realities of economic policy. Even as Chinese regulators recognize that the PBOC’s daily fixing price of the yuan deviated significantly from the weighted formula based upon the price of the U.S. dollar, they attempt little more than to plead with banks not to move from the official price. If U.S. interest rates remain above Chinese rates for a sustained period, this will force a change in Beijing policy in front of a set of circumstances not witnessed in modern history. Currently, Beijing is telling markets how to behave and price assets. That can only happen before markets find ways to move money or black markets that pay better prices.

  Given the expected multi-year interest rate cycle and probable resulting U.S. dollar strength, Beijing must face some hard decisions. Does it raise interest rates to stem the fall of the yuan in the face of a teetering economy? Does it defend the yuan and clamp down on international financial flows even harder, given all the outward leaks?

  Realistically, we should expect Beijing to delay any type of real decision as long as possible, given the very negative trade-offs it faces. Clamping down further on capital flows will only drive international investment away from an already unattractive destination. Raising interest rates risks taking the Chinese economy over the edge. However, doing nothing also presents risks if markets get spooked by teetering banks, falling asset prices, and a do-nothing approach from Beijing.

  The reality is there are no good options, and Beijing will avoid that reality for as long as possible.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 23:40

• Man 3D-Prints Guns For New York Buyback Event, Makes A Whopping $21,000
  Man 3D-Prints Guns For New York Buyback Event, Makes A Whopping $21,000

  Another person outsmarted a state government trying to confiscate firearms via a gun buyback program with merely a 3D printer and PLA filament. 

  A man named “Kem” printed 110 firearms on a $200 printer he got for Christmas and turned them into a gun buyback program held at the Utica Police Department in Oneida County, New York. 

  “I 3D-printed a bunch of lower receivers and frames for different kinds of firearms,” Kem told local media WKTV. 

  He drove six hours across the state to turn in the firearms he printed in August, collecting a whopping $21,000 from the New York State Attorney General’s Office. 

  “And it ended with the guy and a lady from the budget office finally coming around with the 42 gift cards and counting them in front of me … $21,000 in $500 gift cards,” Kim added. 

  WKTV contacted the state Attorney General’s Office about 3D-printed firearms, though there was no response to that question besides it being a ‘big success and that the program, in general, keeps New York families safe.’ 

  “I’m sure handing over $21,000 in gift cards to some punk kid after getting a bunch of plastic junk was a rousing success,” laughed Kem. 

  

  Asked where he got the idea, he told the local media outlet he saw people on Twitter talking about using 3D printers to make big bucks by printing guns for buyback programs. 

  Perhaps he was referring to the story of a man who recently turned in 62 3D-printed guns to Houston’s buyback program and collected $3,100. 

  Some police departments have changed policies on accepting 3D-printed firearms as more and more people take advantage of flawed buybacks. 

  Keith Taylor, an adjunct professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, which is part of the City University of New York system, recently told Pew Research that buybacks are mostly ineffective at reducing homicides:

  “It’s a waste of resources if the entities that are sponsoring believe that it’s going to have a positive effect on reducing crime.“

  Kem concluded to the media outlet: “Gun buybacks are a fantastic way of showing, number one, that your policies don’t work, and, number 2, you’re creating perverse demand. You’re causing people to show up to these events, and, they don’t actually reduce crime whatsoever.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 23:20

• Conservatives Targets Of Political Violence Since Biden's "MAGA Republicans" Speech
  Conservatives Targets Of Political Violence Since Biden’s “MAGA Republicans” Speech

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  There have been reports of high-profile acts of political violence against Republicans and conservatives since President Joe Biden’s controversial “MAGA Republicans” speech last month.

  “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic,” Biden said during a politically charged speech on Sept. 1 in Philadelphia.

  

  While speaking in front of a dimly lit red backdrop and flanked by two U.S. Marines, Biden alleged that “MAGA Republicans” also promote “authoritarian leaders” and “fan the flames of political violence” to target rights and the “very soul of this country.”

  While it isn’t clear if Biden’s speech motivated acts of vandalism or politically motivated attacks, several Republican offices across the country have been vandalized since then, including the Larimer County Republican Party in Fort Collins, Colorado; the Ottawa County Republican Party in Hudsonville, Michigan; and the Nebraska Republican Party headquarters in Lincoln, Nebraska.

  The Republican Party office in Seminole County, Florida, was vandalized after Biden claimed days before his Philadelphia speech that Republicans engaged in “semi-fascism.”

  “[Officials] came out and found that all of the signs had been hacked to pieces, our building had been vandalized, our permanent sign on the outside of the building had been torn up,” Keith den Hollander, chairman and vice chairman for Ottawa County Republican Party, told local media outlets last week. “Really disappointed to see this.”

  A pregnancy center in Oakland County, Michigan, also was targeted by vandals, who scrawled pro-abortion threats on its front door. It’s the second time that the facility was targeted in the past year, according to local media outlets.

  Other Incidents

  Also in Michigan, a pro-life canvasser was shot in Odessa Township, officials said. A 74-year-old man, Richard Harvey, was charged with felony assault and reckless discharge of a firearm, the Michigan State Police announced this past weekend.

  Joan Jacobson, 84, told MLive that she was canvassing with Right to Life, going door-to-door to ask residents to vote “no” next month on Proposal 3, a pro-abortion measure, when she was shot in the shoulder.

  Harvey came forward last week, telling WOOD-TV that he shot Jacobson accidentally as she was arguing with his wife, who he said supports abortion. Harvey said he told Jacobson to leave their property on multiple occasions.

  Also last month, 18-year-old Cayler Ellingson was killed when a 41-year-old man allegedly hit him with his vehicle and later told a 911 dispatcher that he thought Ellingson was part of an extremist Republican group, according to reports. The suspect, Shannon Brandt, was charged with murder in the teen’s death.

  

  An affidavit states that Brandt told the state first responders’ radio that he struck the pedestrian with his vehicle because the “pedestrian was threatening him,” referring to Ellingson, claiming that he was part of a “Republican extremist group.”

  However, from the moment he called 911 after allegedly hitting Ellingson, “Brandt made comments regarding the incident being intentional and not an accident,” according to the affidavit.

  An autopsy of Ellingson’s injuries indicated that he was already on the ground when he received them, and that his injuries didn’t come from being struck by Brandt’s car but from being run over. Corroborating the autopsy results, there was also little to no damage to the front of Brandt’s car, according to North Dakota Bureau of Criminal Investigation Special Agent Jeramie Quam.

  Witnesses at the scene told investigators that there was no evidence that suggested Ellingson had extremist viewpoints or that a political argument had even taken place, North Dakota Highway Patrol Capt. Bryan Niewind said.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 23:00

• Newsom Makes California 'Sanctuary State' For Transgender Children And Their Families
  Newsom Makes California ‘Sanctuary State’ For Transgender Children And Their Families

  California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) last week signed into law a bill which makes the state a refuge for transgender youth and their families.

  

  Effective Jan. 1 of next year, the measure is designed to shield trans youth under the age of 18 and their families from criminal prosecution if they travel to the Golden State to obtain ‘gender-affirming health care’ – which can include puberty blockers, hormones and surgery which many critics consider to be a form of child abuse.

  “States across the country are passing laws to demonize the transgender community, especially transgender youth and their parents,” Newsom wrote in a Thursday signing statement.

  “In California we believe in equality and acceptance. We believe that no one should be prosecuted or persecuted for getting the care they need – including gender-affirming care,” the governor wrote. “Parents know what’s best for their kids, and they should be able to make decisions around the health of their children without fear.”

  The move comes after over a dozen states have introduced legislation this year to either heavily restrict or outlaw transgender medical support for children.

  In May, Alabama enacted a felony ban on gender-affirming care to a minor, while Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) has introduced federal legislation which would make it a felony that carries up to 25 years in prison to providing said care to those under the age of 18, The Hill reports.

  Texas Gov. Greg Abbott directed state agencies through executive action in February to open child abuse investigations into the parents of transgender children. A state judge earlier this month expanded an existing order that had blocked the state from probing specific families, but a handful of investigations remain open.

  The Texas legislature, which meets during odd-numbered years, failed last year to pass a ban on gender-affirming medical care for transgender youth. -The Hill

  In his Thursday statement, Newsom decried “the hate demonstrated by these laws” which he says “has contributed to soaring suicide rates.”

  The law was introduced by Sen. Scott Wiener (D), who in June suggested offering “Drag Queen 101 as part of the K-12 curriculum.”

  This guy just gave me a bill idea:

  Offering Drag Queen 101 as part of the K-12 curriculum. Attending Drag Queen Story Time will satisfy the requirement. https://t.co/Sogz2Ag8jV

  — Senator Scott Wiener (@Scott_Wiener) June 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe bill is co-sponsored by nonprofit groups Equality California, Planned Parenthood and TransFamily Support Services, as well as California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), and limits the ability of out-of-state law enforcement to make an arrest or participate in the extradition of parents who travel to California so their minor child can receive gender-affirming health care.

  At least 16 states are planning to introduce similar legislation.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 22:40

• Obama's Brother Endorses Republican Doug Mastriano In Pennsylvania Governor Race
  Obama’s Brother Endorses Republican Doug Mastriano In Pennsylvania Governor Race

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Malik Obama, the half-brother of former President Barack Obama, has endorsed the Republican candidate for governor in Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano.

  

  Taking to Twitter on Sunday, Malik Obama responded to a post from American conservative author and podcast host Jack Posobiec in which he suggested that the older Obama may like Mastriano and should “check him out.”

  “​​If he’s with President Trump then I’m with @dougmastriano Pennsylvania Senator PA District 33,” Obama responded to the post.

  

  Former President Donald Trump endorsed Mastriano in the primary race for governor earlier this year, saying in a statement that there is “no one in Pennsylvania who has done more, or fought harder, for election integrity than state Senator Doug Mastriano.”

  The 45th president added that Mastriano is a pro-Trump, America First candidate who will fight crime, address election problems, promote pro-life policies, protect the Second Amendment, and support the U.S. military and veterans.

  Mastriano, an Afghanistan and Iraq veteran, is facing Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race.

  Shapiro’s campaign has promised to be pro-abortion and expand access to reproductive care, and “veto any efforts to restrict mail-in voting, expand early voting, and set up automatic voter registration.”

  Recent polls suggest Shapiro is leading.

  In a separate post on Sunday, Malik Obama also weighed in on Brazil’s presidential election race between left-wing candidate and former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Conservative incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro.

  Sunday saw neither candidate receive more than 50 percent of the ballot in the race, meaning the two now head to a second-round run-off later this month.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 22:20

• Pentagon Announces Targeted Killing Of Top Somali Al-Qaeda Leader
  Pentagon Announces Targeted Killing Of Top Somali Al-Qaeda Leader

  On Monday the Pentagon announced that a successful airstrike over the weekend in Somalia has killed a top leader of the al-Shabaab terror group. The airstrike happened on Saturday outside the city of Jilib, roughly 370 kilometers southwest of Mogadishu.

  “Al-Shabaab is the largest and most kinetically active al-Qaeda network in the world and has proved both its will and capability to attack U.S. forces and threaten U.S. security interests,” an Africom statement revealing the operation said.

  

  “US Africa Command, alongside its partners, continues to take action to prevent this malicious terrorist group from planning and conducting attacks on civilians,” the statement continued.

  The Pentagon claimed that there were no civilian casualties as a result of the airstrike. Interestingly, US officials did not name the particular terror commander who had been taken out.

  However, as The Hill reports, local sources did: “the Somali Ministry of Information, Culture, and Tourism on Sunday identified the militant killed as Abdullahi Nadir.” Further, the report notes: 

  Nadir, who the Somali government said had been wanted for a “long time,” had a $3 million U.S. bounty on his head.

  Abdullahi Nadir is a co-founder of al-Shabaab, which makes this strike the biggest anti-jihadist US operation since Biden’s ordered troop redeployment in the region. 

  It remains that the group, which has been active in south and central parts of Somalia – and is a notorious and feared Islamist organization due especially to a spate of major kidnappings in recent years, is Somalia’s prime target, having declared “total war” against it, which Washington has pledged to help with.

  Biden has apparently ramped up drone strikes in Somalia over the last months. As we highlighted in August, “Since 2007, the U.S. military has carried out 260 actions in Somalia. While the Pentagon only admits to killing five civilians and wounding 11 others in a campaign it claims killed as many as 3,010 militants, Airwars estimates that 78-153 civilians, including 20-23 children, have died in U.S. attacks.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 22:00

• South Korea Vow "Stern Response" After North Korea Ballistic Missile Flies 4,500km At A Speed Of Mach 17
  South Korea Vow “Stern Response” After North Korea Ballistic Missile Flies 4,500km At A Speed Of Mach 17

  Update (9:40pm): According to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, North Korea’s intermediate-range ballistic missile flew ~4,500km with an apogee of ~970km, reaching a speed of Mach 17 before splashing in the Pacific ocean, some 2800 nautical miles east of Korea, having traveled above Japan. The JSC added that South Korea and US intelligence authorities are still analyzing more details.

  

  South Korea also said that North Korea’s consecutive missile launch provocation strengthens South Korea-US alliance’s reaction capability and intensifies North Korea’s isolation from the international community.

  South Korea slammed the North Korean ballistic missile launch, saying it deters peace and security of the Korean Peninsula and the international community, and it strongly condemns it as the launch is a clear breach of UN Security Council resolutions.

  South Korea’s president also chimed in, vowing a “stern response” to North Korea’s missile launch.

  * * *

  The Japanese government warned residents in some remote islands that are part of Tokyo as well as Hokkaido and Aomori prefectures to take shelter from a missile fired from North Korea.

  〔Live streaming〕The Japanese government is warning that North Korea appears to have launched at least one ballistic missile. There’s a possibility it’s heading toward Japan. The government is urging everyone in the country to take shelter immediately.https://t.co/QbGNxw7brV

  — NHK WORLD News (@NHKWORLD_News) October 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “…Hokkaido Oshima Town Toshima Village Niijima Village Kozushima Village Miyake Village Mikurashima Village Hachijo Town Aogashima Village Ogasawara Village”

  — Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) October 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  North Korea fired an unidentified ballistic missile toward the east side, according to text message from South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.

  According to a subsequent update from NHK, the missile appears to have flown over and past Japanese territory, and landed in the Pacific ocean.

  JUST IN – North Korea fired a ballistic missile that flew over Japan. Missile alerts have been activated.pic.twitter.com/OvnoE1TWXL

  — Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) October 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It is unclear what response, if any, Japan will pursue.

  The USDJPY dipped briefly on the news of the missile launch but has since rebounded.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 21:49

• Hunter Biden Probe To Look Into 'What Happened In 2020': Jim Jordan
  Hunter Biden Probe To Look Into ‘What Happened In 2020’: Jim Jordan

  Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  If the GOP takes a majority in the House, one of the “key elements” of its investigatory plans into Hunter Biden, the son of President Joe Biden, next year will involve looking into “what happened in 2020,” said Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).

  

  Just weeks before the 2020 presidential election, the New York Post ran a story about Hunter Biden’s overseas business dealings in Ukraine and China, which was promptly dismissed as dubious by mainstream media outlets and suppressed on social media platforms.

  At the time, 51 former intelligence officials signed a letter claiming that the New York Post’s story had “all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.” In an interview with Breitbart, Jordan said that he wants to know on what intelligence the 51 former officials based their letter.

  “We had 51 former intelligence officials tell us that this was Russian disinformation. We had the FBI sit down with Facebook and say, ‘Hey, be careful, wink wink. We think there’s Russian disinformation.’ … All that was done to suppress that story, which had an impact on how people voted in the most important election we have, the election for president of the United States,” Jordan told Breitbart.

  “Did someone from The New York Times tell them something? Did someone from the FBI leak some false—was it this Timothy Thibault, who [has] since left the FBI, who suppressed that information at the FBI? I want to know. That’s pretty important stuff, so I really want to look into that angle.”

  Most of the investigative activities related to Hunter Biden would be headquartered at the Oversight Committee, with Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) expected to lead it. Jordan will continue to remain a member and chair of the Judiciary. Comer plans to look into Hunter Biden’s suspicious banking and business transactions, he added.

  Protecting Documents

  Jordan had recently signed a letter together with other Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee asking former FBI official Timothy Thibault not to destroy or alter documents related to the Hunter Biden investigation that are in his possession.

  “Whistleblowers have come to Congress alleging that you were part of a scheme to undermine and discredit allegations of criminal wrongdoing by members of the Biden family. Accordingly, we believe that you possess information relating to our investigation and we request your assistance with our inquiry,” the letter said.

  Prior to leaving the FBI last month, Thibault worked at the agency’s Washington Field Office. In July, he came under scrutiny after a whistleblower revealed that the former FBI agent had suppressed information the agency had about Hunter Biden’s financial activities.

  In July, whistleblowers revealed to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) that FBI bureau officials labeled evidence against Hunter Biden as disinformation and that there are “systemic and existential problems” within the agency as well as the Justice Department.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 21:40

• OPEC Is Taking On The Fed… And Goldman Is Buying Every Barrel It Can Find
  OPEC Is Taking On The Fed… And Goldman Is Buying Every Barrel It Can Find

  Earlier today, Rabobank’s Michael Every was the latest to try his hand in defining the conflict that – according to Zoltan Pozsar- has defined not only 2022 but will define the collapse of the dollar and the birth of the Bretton Woods 3 regime, when the geopolitical strategist discussed Putin’s “vitriolic speech” on Friday in which, according to Every, “as Russia rails against “paper dollars and euros” and extolls the strength of commodities, can the West slash rates or do endless QE to bail out the tiny elite who own most financial assets, and in doing so prove Moscow right in the eyes of the rest of the world?”

  While Every disagrees with Zoltan on whether the dollar will fall and whether a new Bretton Woods regime will emerge, the two are in agreement that the only response the west has to the commodity shortage created by the Russia-China-Africa-LatAm axis would be either to cause a global dollar funding squeeze (by hiking rates) which however has an unpleasant habit of crushing “friendly” allies such as the BOJ and BOE, or by flooding the world with fiat in order to – as Every put it – “bail out the tiny elite who own most financial assets, and in doing so prove Moscow right in the eyes of the rest of the world.“

  But it’s not just the anti-western axis that is taking on the Fed: according to Goldman Sachs, so is the world’s most important cartel (where Russia is also a critical voice): OPEC+.

  In a note published by Goldman’s Damien Courvalin, Jeffrey Currie and the commodities team (available to pro subs in the usual place) titled “OPEC Takes on the Fed”, the Goldman strategists recap the latest developments that helped propel oil sharply higher today, namely the reports that in its first in-person meeting in Vienna this Wednesday, the cartel may cut oil output by as much as 1.5 mmb/d…

  Reports suggest that OPEC+ is considering a production cut at its meeting on Wednesday, October 5, potentially larger than 1 mb/d. While such a cut would occur amid one of the tightest markets in recorded history, and ahead of a potential decline in Russian exports later this year, such a decision could be justified by the recent large decline in prices, down 40% since their June peak, with mounting global growth concerns.

  And while the recent collapse in investor participation, which has driven liquidity and prices lower, is also a likely strong catalyst for such a cut – as it would increase the carry in oil and start to claw back investors who have instead turned to USD cash allocation following the aggressive Fed hikes – what Goldman is effectively saying is that by OPEC is taking the fight back to the Fed, which by hiking and pushing the dollar to record highs sent the price of oil to new 2022 lows. Well, just as the Fed can limit the supply of dollar bills, whether physical or electronic, so OPEC can throttle and cut the all too physical supply of oil in retaliation.

  But how exactly does OPEC plan on challenging the attractive yield on the US dollar? Simple: as Goldman writes, “an OPEC cut, by reinforcing this level of backwardation, would further increase the carry offered by a long passive front-month rolling position in Brent futures, which already offers an annualized carry of 24%.“

  As such, an OPEC vut – which Goldman has not assumed in its latest published bullish forecasts – would reinforce the bank’s bullish price view while significantly limiting the downside to prices should economic growth disappoint even relative to the bank’s modest global (ex China) 1% real GDP growth assumption for next year. As a result, Goldman – which has laid out the clash between OPEC and the Fed – reiterates both its bullish oil view as well as its preference for long crude timespread positions into year-end. In other words, at least in Goldman’s view, OPEC will fight the Fed, and win.

  While there is much more in the full note, below we excerpt the key highlights from the Goldman note:

  Historically, OPEC has often cut production in the face of weakening demand, yet it has never implemented a cut in such a tight market, with inventories at historically low levels, record strong seasonal crude timespreads and with demand remaining resilient despite the macro headwinds.

  

  While inventory dynamics have loosened in recent months (Exhibit 1), a portion of these builds (100mb+ by our estimates) are required due to the redirection of trade flows under embargo constraints. Adjusted for oil on water, we estimate that the global oil market has instead remained in a seasonally adjusted (2017-19 av.) deficit, which is expected to seasonally and cyclically tighten in the coming months. Very large and unsustainable draws in China have also exacerbated the ex-China surplus. Looking forward, we expect Russian production to decline into year-end with in turn demand expected to be supported by natural gas to oil switching in Europe and Asia.

  

  Beyond the decline in prices, we believe this cut can help remedy the large exodus of oil investors that has left prices under-performing both fundamentals and other cyclical asset classes, as we discussed in our latest oil update. Such an argument can be traced back to our past work our Commodities as an Asset Class. Equity and debt holders of energy companies get compensated for providing capital from which companies profitably produce via dividends and share price appreciation. A commodity investor has no such function, investing in a futures market which is a zero-sum game, simply acting as the counterpart to an offsetting future position. Key however is the liquidity that is provided by this investor position, typically helping offset that of a producer, willing to sell his future production at a discount given the corporate benefits of reducing earnings volatility. While such hedging flows have slowed materially this year, the investor exodus has been even larger owing to the surge in price volatility, exacerbating backwardation – and hence the compensation for long investors – in energy futures.

  An OPEC cut, by reinforcing this level of backwardation, would further increase the carry offered by a long passive front-month rolling position in Brent futures, which already offers an annualized carry of 24%. This would make such an allocation increasingly compelling relative to other forms of carry, with, unlike most FX crosses today, supportive fundamentals rooted in exceptionally low inventories. It would further increase the opportunity cost of being short oil futures: given the positive carry, the 12-mo breakeven price on front-month rolling short positioning is already $67/bbl. Similarly, high volatility and the outsized impact of producer hedging on deferred prices have combined to increase the cost of puts, with a Dec-23 ATM put position requiring a fall in that contract’s value to $61/bbl to become profitable at expiration.

  Ultimately, the ability for OPEC to conduct such a large cut is rooted in the lack of any supply elasticity, with shale activity showing signs of slowing, no spare capacity outside of GCC producers and with Russia’s production about to decline (leading it to support this time around a large cut by other producers). This is ultimately a return to the Old Oil Order, where core-OPEC acts under the rational behavior of a dominant producer with pricing power. In that sense, while exceptional, this cut is also logical as it maximizes the group’s revenues today with minimal sacrifice of future profits.

  While we take no explicit assumption on the meeting outcome for now, given our already bullish forecasts, we highlight three headline scenarios with cuts of 0.5, 1, and 1.5 mb/d respectively – and assess what they imply for prices and timespreads. Due to widespread capacity limits within OPEC+, a headline (“paper”) cut is likely to overstate significantly the effective (“physical”) curtailment of production. We show in Exhibit 4, across these three scenarios, that the effective cut is likely to be only c.50% of the headline quota figures compared to our Nov-22 supply expectations, and closer to c.2/3 of the headline when translated into balances through Dec-23 as we had assumed gradually higher production next year.

  

  As we discussed in our latest oil note, we believe the market is oscillating between its historical pricing framework (based on inventories and convenience yields) and a scarcity pricing regime (predicated on demand destruction as the only balancing mechanism). In the case of a 1 mb/d headline cut, the former regime would lead us to expect a c.$13/bbl positive impact on Brent prices over 12 months, albeit mostly front-loaded, while the latter regime suggests a distinct possibility of a c.$20/bbl spike higher when inventories deplete again and demand destruction remains the balancing mechanism of last resort.

  In Exhibit 5, we consider the effect of these potential cuts assuming prices remain near current levels (consistent with our ‘Pre-price’ balance published here). In this scenario, these OPEC+ cuts would tighten inventories to historically unparalleled lows; an unsustainable outcome in our view but one that would initially offer historically elevated roll returns of 25-40% for rolling the prompt Brent contract (Exhibit 6 and Exhibit 7) even at $85/bbl price levels. As a result, we reiterate both our bullish oil view as well as our preference into year-end front long crude timespread positions.

  

  More in the full note available to pro subs.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 21:23

• Buchanan: Is 'Our Democracy' Failing Our Country?
  Buchanan: Is ‘Our Democracy’ Failing Our Country?

  Authored by Pat Buchanan,

  Asked, “What is an American?” many would answer, “An American is a citizen of the United States.”

  Yet, at the First Continental Congress in 1774, 15 years before the U.S. became a nation of 13 states, Patrick Henry rose to proclaim that, “British oppression has effaced the boundaries of the several colonies; the distinctions between Virginians, Pennsylvanians, New Yorkers, and New Englanders are no more. I am not a Virginian, but an American.”

  Henry was saying — more than a dozen years before our constitutional republic was established — that America already existed as a nation, and he was her loyal son.

  In an 1815 letter to Thomas Jefferson, long after both men had served as president, John Adams wrote:

  “As to the history of the Revolution, my Ideas may be peculiar, perhaps Singular. What do We mean by the Revolution? The War? That was no part of the Revolution. It was only an Effect and Consequence of it. The Revolution was in the Minds of the People, and this was effected, from 1760 to 1775, in the course of fifteen Years before a drop of blood was drawn at Lexington.”

  Adams was saying that America was conceived and, as an embryonic nation, grew within the hearts of the peoples of the 13 colonies, two to three decades before the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia.

  In short, our country came to be before our republic came to be, and long before what we today call “our democracy” came to be. A country is different from, and more than, the political system that it adopts.

  France was France all through the Bourbon dynasty, the Revolution of 1789, the creation of the First Republic, the Reign of Terror, Napoleon’s First Empire and the restoration of the Bourbon monarchy — all the way to the creation of the Fifth Republic by President Charles de Gaulle.

  And beneath the carapace of the USSR, the heart of Mother Russia continued to beat. Rightly, during the Cold War, we regarded Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria as “captive nations” and captive peoples.

  The point: Neither the regime nor the political system imposed, nor some abstract idea, is the country that predates them and has first claim upon the loyalty of its sons and daughters.

  In his famous toast, American naval hero Stephen Decatur declared: “Our country! … May she always be in the right; but our country, right or wrong!”

  The crisis today for those who incessantly proclaim, “Our democracy is in danger,” is that millions of patriots are coming to see our incumbent regime, “our democracy,” as faithless and failing in its foremost duty — to protect and defend our country and countrymen from enemies foreign and domestic.

  Forced constantly by the establishment to choose between them, patriotic Americans may one day come to choose, as did their fathers, the country they love over the crown that rules them.

  

  Consider.

  The Biden regime that currently rules us has allowed 3 million migrants to invade our country in two years. These illegals continue to break our laws and cross our border at a rate of 250,000 a month.

  Among them are terrorists, robbers, rapists, murderers, cartelists and child molesters. The Biden regime has abdicated its duty to halt the invasion that is changing the ethnic, racial, religious, social and political character and composition of our American family without the consent of the American people, into whose national home these intruders are breaking with impunity.

  President Joe Biden is assuring that the future of the nation will be determined by millions of people who have in common only that they broke our laws to get into our country. Vice President Kamala Harris smugly dismisses demands to address the crisis by saying America’s southern border is “secure.”

  With this invasion has come a flood of the narcotic fentanyl, which last year took the lives of 100,000 Americans, a number equal to all the U.S. war dead in years of fighting in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.

  Under the Biden party’s policy of softness on crime and indulgence of the criminal class, assaults, robberies, carjackings and “mass shootings,” where four victims are killed or wounded in each episode, have surged in U.S. cities.

  With America’s currency and economy in his custody, Biden has, in 18 months, run up inflation, that cancer of America’s currency, to 8%, run up the national debt to where it far exceeds the gross national product, and crashed the stock market, wiping out trillions in wealth.

  “The pandemic is over,” Biden told “60 Minutes” in September, a month when more than 400 Americans were dying of COVID-19 every day, a death rate higher than World War II and equal to the bloodiest war in U.S. history, the Civil War of 1861-1865.

  The custodians of “our democracy” are failing in the most fundamental of duties of any political system — to protect and defend the people. No failed regime can justify its permanence by claiming some inherent superiority.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 21:00

• US Coal Prices Soar Above $200 Amid Energy Crunch
  US Coal Prices Soar Above $200 Amid Energy Crunch

  US natural gas production will need to increase to maintain soaring liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports while ensuring adequate domestic supplies for households and businesses this winter. If not, then electricity generators at power plants will find NatGas uneconomical to run turbines and switch to coal-fired generators. That’s precisely what could be happening as US coal prices soar over the $200 per ton mark for the first time.  

  *US COAL PRICES RISE PAST $200 FOR FIRST TIME AMID SUPPLY CRUNCH

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Bloomberg said spot coal prices for the week ending Sept. 30 increased to $204.95 per ton. Data was sourced from US Energy Information Administration, which said this was the highest price in records dating back to 2005. 

  

  The energy-market shockwaves from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rejiggering of Europe’s energy supply chain have dramatically increased US LNG exports to the EU this summer and fall. Domestic supplies have significantly tightened the availability for large users, which has pressured prices higher.  

  As a result, the once-mighty coal industry is returning as the global (in China and Europe) NatGas-to-coal switching could be set to intensify. The rise in coal prices may suggest stockpiling by utilities ahead of a cold winter. 

  Rising spot coal prices have been favorable for big coal companies: Peabody Energy Corp shares rose 6% to $26.25, and Arch Resources Inc. jumped 7.5% to $127.49. Both coal stocks have been in a lateral formation for much of this year and could break out to the upside if coal prices continue to rise. 

  

  The rally in spot coal and coal mining stocks comes under the most progressive White House ever that attempts to kill the fossil fuel industry to decarbonize the power grid with unreliable renewable power sources that have backfired. Worse, US-led sanctions against Russia have further sparked global energy market chaos. 

  Coal’s comeback is a remarkable turnaround for an industry that was on the brink of disaster as banks halted financing and investment firms divested from mines and coal-fired power plants, though some of this has been reversed ahead of what’s expected to be a cold and expensive winter.

  Increasing coal generation could be a move to help offset some of the power bill pains millions of Americans are facing as NatGas prices send electricity prices higher. 

  There’s one shocking figure by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association that shows about 20 million households across the country have already fallen behind on their utility bills. 

  Perhaps it’s time to suspend Biden’s decarbonization efforts to protect American families that could be financially slaughtered by energy hyperinflation if NatGas prices were to soar even more. 

  We don’t believe coal will be a long-term solution for grid stability. Instead, we’ve reminded readers that nuclear could be a big winner in the years ahead.  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 20:40

• Investigation Into FBI 'Corruption' Impeded By Durham Investigation: Senator
  Investigation Into FBI ‘Corruption’ Impeded By Durham Investigation: Senator

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Special counsel John Durham’s investigation into the origins of the Trump–Russia collusion claims has prevented lawmakers from obtaining more information about possible misconduct at the FBI and the Department of Justice (DOJ), according to Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.).

  “Our efforts in terms of investigating Hunter Biden and corruption within the FBI was certainly hampered because we had an active criminal investigation under John Durham,” he told Newsmax on Sept. 30, noting that Durham so far has successfully prosecuted few individuals in connection to his investigation.

  

  Overall, Johnson said he’s “not particularly satisfied” with Durham’s probe and the lack of convictions, including what he described as a failure to secure a conviction for lawyer Michael Sussmann. Sussmann was accused by Durham of lying to the FBI while he was working for a law firm representing the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016 but was acquitted in May.

  Durham was appointed in 2019 by then-Attorney General William Barr to investigate government misconduct in the FBI Crossfire Hurricane investigation. So far, the investigation has netted the conviction and sentencing of former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith, who received probation last year.

  “And at a minimum, I certainly hope that whatever report [Durham] turns in to Attorney General Merrick Garland that that report be made public,” Johnson said. “The American public deserves to know the truth of the corruption that was occurring within the Department of Justice in the FBI.”

  Igor Danchenko, a Russian-born national who was the alleged primary source for the controversial dossier concocted by former UK spy Christopher Steele, is slated to go to trial later this month. Danchenko, who has pleaded not guilty, could face up to 25 years in prison if he’s convicted.

  Last week, U.S. District Judge Anthony Trenga declined to throw out any of the five charges filed against Danchenko after hearing arguments from Durham’s team and lawyers representing Danchenko.

  Danchenko’s lawyers argued on Sept. 29 that all the charges should be dismissed because Danchenko’s answers to the FBI were technically true, if not necessarily illuminating. But Durham said Danchenko’s statements, if examined in context rather than in isolation, will show that he knowingly lied.

  “He knows exactly what the FBI is looking for, the context of those questions,” Durham said in a hearing last week.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 20:20

• Trump Seeks $475 Million In Defamation Suit Against CNN
  Trump Seeks $475 Million In Defamation Suit Against CNN

  Former President Donald Trump filed a lawsuit against CNN tonight, claiming the so-called news outlet defamed him in an effort to reduce his chances of running for president again in 2024.

  The suit, which was filed Monday in U.S. District Court in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, alleges Trump has been a “long-time critic” of CNN, “not because CNN does a bad job of reporting the news, but because CNN seeks to create the news.”

  “CNN’s campaign of dissuasion in the form of libel and slander against the Plaintiff has only escalated in recent months as CNN fears the Plaintiff will run for president in 2024,” the suit reads.

  “As a part of its concerted effort to tilt the political balance to the Left, CNN has tried to taint the Plaintiff with a series of ever-more scandalous, false, and defamatory labels of ‘racist,’ ‘Russian lackey,’ ‘insurrectionist,’ and ultimately ‘Hitler.’”

  

  Trump seeks $475 million in punitive damages, alleging that CNN “has sought to use its massive influence – purportedly as a ‘trusted’ news source – to defame the Plaintiff in the minds of its viewers and readers for the purpose of defeating him politically, culminating in CNN claiming credit for ‘[getting] Trump out’ in the 2020 presidential election.”

  The former president notified the outlet in July of his intention to sue for “repeated defamatory statements.”

  Trump also warned he would sue other outlets he alleges have “defamed and defrauded the public” about the 2020 presidential election results.

  As a reminder, Trump had a lawsuit against 2016 Democratic rival Hillary Clinton and former top FBI officials tossed in early September by U.S. District Judge Donald Middlebrooks, who said Trump was “seeking to flaunt a two-hundred-page political manifesto outlining his grievances against those that have opposed him, and this Court is not the appropriate forum.”

  That is “a high legal bar to clear given First Amendment protections granted to the free press under the Constitution,” according to The Hill.

  “The New York Times, for example, has not lost a defamation case in more than 50 years.”

  However, as JustTheNews reports, winning such a case is not impossible, however.

  Covington Catholic High School student Nick Sandmann successfully secured considerable financial settlements from both CNN and the Washington Post for their coverage of a controversy that suggested the high schooler instigated a confrontation with an Indian activist.

  Read the full suit below:

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 20:00

• Devil's Advocates Are Investors' Best Friends
  Devil’s Advocates Are Investors’ Best Friends

  Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

  If those on the opposite side of the trade are viewed as threats rather than friends, it’s time to revise the analysis.

  

  Of the many self-generated dangers investors face, few are more dangerous than confirmation bias, the comfort we experience seeking out views that confirm our own positions and our resistance to studying opposing views.

  Confirmation bias is both self-evident and complex. We all understand the psychologically soothing feeling when others heartily agree with us, and the frustration, anxiety and sense of being threatened we experience when our core positions are challenged.

  But there’s more to it than just that. Taking a position with conviction empowers us, for by publicly espousing a forecast, prediction or position, we’re implicitly saying, “When events show I’m right, that will show I’m smarter than the average bear.”

  If we push our position and conviction to an extreme and shout it out loudly enough, we’ll attract those seeking to confirm their own biases. Confirmation bias thus generates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, as those shouting the loudest attract those who agree with them, rewarding their conviction with “likes.”

  We all know the danger of marrying your position, that is, taking not just a financial stake but also an emotional stake that eventually becomes entwined with our identity. What may have started out as a calculated risk morphs into an all-or-nothing reflection of our identity. Any challenge becomes a threat to our selfhood.

  Conviction is good, but a hedge and a Plan B are even better. Hedges and Plan Bs arise from a simple question: what if I’m wrong?

  If we want to avoid the dangers of confirmation bias and marrying our positions, Devil’s Advocates become our best friends. Devil’s Advocates delight in probing the consensus or popular view for weaknesses, and exploring how and why the consensus or popular view might be riskier than advertised, or even completely, catastrophically wrong.

  The grizzled investor who’s ridden conviction trades all the way to zero suppresses the desire to confirm biases in favor of seeking out informed Devil’s Advocates, skeptics and proponents of the opposite side of the trade.

  This is especially important in unstable, volatile eras like the present. Since every forecast and prediction (and thus every investment position) is based on previous analogs playing out, what happens when none of those analogs map to the present? Very simply, nobody knows what’s going to happen, and the appropriate level of confidence in any prediction or forecast is near-zero.

  If we cannot justify a conviction trade, then it becomes appropriate to pair every position with a hedge (to protect the position if we’re wrong) or a Plan B (escape with most of our capital intact, limit our risk in any one position or sector, stay in cash until the weather clears, etc.).

  If we listen with some detachment to informed Devil’s Advocates, we might even change our minds (gasp). No crystal ball is unclouded, but being flexible enough to change our minds when presented with evidence is a positive trait.

  In other words, the most fervent Bulls would be well-served by seeking out the most fervent Bears–and vice versa. There’s a spectrum of Devil’s Advocates, of course; some delight in puncturing everyone’s balloons, others are probing their own conviction trade for potentially fatal weaknesses, and so on.

  If those on the opposite side of the trade are viewed as threats rather than friends, it’s time to revise the analysis. It’s never comfortable to be told “you’re wrong,” but the possibility of being wrong should be uppermost in every investor’s mind, as that possibility informs calculated risk: yes, we understand this position is risky, but we’re taking it anyway because we judge the potential upside to be worth the risk.

  Anyone who helps me re-think a position and hedge risk is a friend, not a threat.

  What are some current Devil’s Advocates’ provocations? Here are a few guaranteed to make blood boil in many veins: (Remember, the key question is: what if I’m wrong?)

  1. The US dollar will only continue strengthening, crushing the euro to .80, the yen to 250, the yuan to the depths of Heck, etc. It will not crash or die, not now and not in five years or ten years.

  2. The 10-year yield is heading toward 5% and TLT toward 85. Rates are not going back to zero.

  3. Not all fiat currencies will die.

  4. Not all markets will crash.

  5. Liquidity isn’t all that matters.

  6. Burning all the deadwood (non-performing debt, phantom wealth, etc.) is necessary to re-seed the forest.

  7. Every prediction and forecast will be wrong because the past doesn’t map the present. Correct forecasts will be so rare that they will be statistically insignificant.

  8. Take control of your life, take ownership of everything you generate. Everything else–opinions, forecasts, predictions– is signal noise.

  *  *  *

  My new book is now available at a 10% discount ($8.95 ebook, $18 print): Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.

  Read the first chapter for free (PDF)

  Read excerpts of all three chapters

  Become a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 19:40

• Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Hits Highest Level In Over A Year
  Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Hits Highest Level In Over A Year

  Bitcoin’s correlation with gold hit its highest level in more than a year last week according to Kaiko Research. After benefiting heavily from the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the first quarter of the year, gold has lost all its gains and is currently down 10% YTD.

  

  Bitcoin has also declined double-digits this year dragged down by global monetary policy tightening. Despite core inflation remaining persistently high, gold has failed to act as a safe-haven asset i.e. an asset that is expected to retain or gain in value during periods of economic downturn.

  Over the past year bitcoin has been mostly uncorrelated with gold, with its correlation oscillating between negative 0.2 and positive 0.2. However, as the U.S. Dollar continues strengthening, negatively impacting both crypto and gold, the correlation between the two assets has shifted.

  Despite heavy volatility, and persistent risk weakness, most crypto sectors outperformed other traditional assets in Q3, recovering from double-digits losses in Q2. We constructed several equally-weighted baskets of assets to compute sector returns, and throughout the quarter our DeFi token basket gained 60%, bolstered by the LIDO token. Despite a sharp post-Merge pullback, ETH managed to close the quarter up more than 20%, outperforming our Layer 1 and Layer 2 baskets.

  

  One potential reason why the two alternative assets moved in the same direction is that last week, is because the Bank of England (BoE) announced a new round of bond buying, effectively re-starting quantitative easing. The BoE is the second central bank after the Bank of Japan to intervene in currency markets in September. While the move appears to have calmed markets, fears of a global contagion and further de-risking are mounting. Both U.S. and German Treasury yields increased, though at a slower pace.

  And despite the Fed’s persistence to the contrary, traders are growing increasingly confident that it is only a matter of time before the Fed joins the rest of the developed world and is forced to unleash the liquidity firehose again, in the process sending the USD crashing and its non-fiat alternatives, including gold and bitcoin, soaring to new all time highs.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 19:20

• Supreme Court Won't Hear Challenge To Gun Bump Stock Ban
  Supreme Court Won’t Hear Challenge To Gun Bump Stock Ban

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

  The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday rejected two challenges to the federal government’s ban on gun bump stocks that was handed down in the wake of the Las Vegas mass shooting in 2017.

  

  Bump stocks are devices that allow semi-automatic weapons to increase their rate of fire. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) reversed a previous conclusion and classified bump stocks as forbidden under a 1934 U.S. law called the National Firearms Act.

  Gun rights groups, including Gun Owners of America, and a Utah-based gun rights advocate brought several cases to the nine Supreme Court justices to reverse the ban. They made no comments in declining to hear them (pdf), which were among several that the court declined to hear on Monday—the first day of the high court’s term.

  Clark Aposhian, the Utah gun-rights advocate, sued to halt the ban in 2019, challenging the ATF’s authority in reclassifying bump stocks as forbidden machine guns. After a federal judge refused to grant him an injunction early in the case, Aposhian surrendered his bump stock, pending the outcome of the litigation.

  Separately, gun owner advocacy groups including Gun Owners of America and three of its individual members, sued in federal court in Michigan to block the bump stock ban from taking effect. The Cincinnati-based 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in 2021 upheld the ban.

  After the Supreme Court’s ruling on Monday, Gun Owners of America issued a statement saying it will set a “dangerous precedent” that will give the federal government broader powers to regulate firearms.

  “This decision sets a horrible and dangerous precedent, one that will allow the ATF to further arbitrarily regulate various firearms,” the group wrote on Twitter.

  “This very same precedent is already being abused by Joe Biden to ban millions of lawfully purchased pistols even without an ACT of Congress!”

  Earlier this year, lawyers for the Biden administration urged the Supreme Court to stay out of the dispute over the ATF’s rule.

  The ATF had “determined that bump stocks are machine guns under the statue, not that the agency had discretionary authority under the statute to classify them as machine guns,” Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar argued in a court filing. “ATF’s interpretation reflects the best understanding of the statutory language,” she also wrote.

  Ban

  Bump stocks use a gun’s recoil to bump its trigger, enabling a semiautomatic weapon to fire more quickly.

  In 2017, the ATF rule banning bump stocks stipulated “that [bump stocks] are ‘machineguns’ as defined by the National Firearms Act of 1934 and the Gun Control Act of 1968” as these devices “allow a shooter of a semiautomatic firearm to initiate a continuous firing cycle with a single pull of the trigger.”

  When the rule was proposed about five years ago, the agency estimated that Americans possessed about 520,000 bump stocks. The ban required them to either be relinquished or destroyed.

  

  This undated photo provided by Eric Paddock shows his brother, Las Vegas gunman Stephen Paddock. (Courtesy of Eric Paddock via AP)

  The ban on bump stocks came into effect in 2019 as a result of the October 2017 mass shooting that left 58 dead in Las Vegas. Stephen Paddock, a high-stakes gambler, allegedly used rifles—some of which law enforcement officials say had bump stocks—to fire at a crowd of country music concertgoers.

  No motive for the mass shooting has ever been established. Investigators with the FBI later said that Paddock, who had virtually no online presence and is believed to have killed himself after the rampage, may have been inspired by his criminal father’s reputation.

  Other Cases

  In June, the Supreme Court court declared for the first time that the U.S. Constitution protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun in public for self-defense. The decision handed a victory to gun rights advocates in a nation deeply divided over how to address firearms violence.

  Previously, the Supreme Court declined to take up a separate legal effort by other gun rights groups in 2020 to overturn the ATF ban on bump stocks.

  In a court brief (pdf) filed on Aug. 1 with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit, the Firearms Policy Coalition wrote that the ATF’s redefinition of a bump stock “defies any recognizable public meaning of the language of the statute and leads to absurd results.” The group further argued that the ATF’s classification of a bump-fired rifle as a machine gun suggests that “nearly every semiautomatic firearm in existence” could fall into the new category.

  The cases that the Supreme Court rejected Monday are W. Clark Aposhian v. Merrick B. Garland, 21-159, and Gun Owners of America v. Merrick B. Garland, 21-1215.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 19:00

• US Would Lead NATO To 'Take Out Every Russian Conventional Force' If Putin Uses Nukes In Ukraine: Petraeus
  US Would Lead NATO To ‘Take Out Every Russian Conventional Force’ If Putin Uses Nukes In Ukraine: Petraeus

  Retired General and former Director of the CIA David Petraeus says it’s his belief that if Russian President Vladimir Putin used nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the United States would quickly intervene to “take out” Russian forces. He emphasized too that Washington would lead the way among a collective NATO response.

  The well-known retired Army general issued the prediction of such a major US intervention in that scenario during a Sunday interview on ABC’s “This Week,” explaining that the West must take the Kremlin’s latest nuclear rhetoric seriously, and that this is what the White House’s latest warnings of “catastrophic consequences” for Moscow is all about.

  

  “And what would happen?” show co-anchor Jonathan Karl questioned for former CIA chief. “Well, again, I have deliberately not talked to Jake about this. I mean, just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a NATO, a collective effort, that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea,” Petraeus responded.

  But that’s when Karl brought up the likely scenario of radiation fallout from such a Russian nuclear engagement directly impacting much of Eastern Europe, reaching nearby NATO countries. 

  “Yes. And perhaps you can make that case. The other case is that this is so horrific that there has to be a response, it cannot go unanswered. But it doesn’t expand, it doesn’t — it’s not nuclear for nuclear,” Petraeus explained. That’s when he expressly laid out that Washington has to be ready nuclear escalation if the situation demands: 

  “You don’t want to, again, get into a nuclear escalation here. But you have to show that this cannot be accepted in any way,” Petraeus said.

  While the former top Army general is of course not speaking from within the administration or in the capacity of an active government official at this point, his perspective certainly generally reflects that of the foreign policy and military establishment. 

  Petraeus went on to explain his view that Putin has no qualms about surrounding European countries and Western backers of Ukraine suffering too. “Well, he’s trying to cast this in any way that he can in a way to appear threatening, to be threatening, to try to get Europe to crack. He thinks he can out suffer Europe, if you will,” he continued.

  Watch the full interview below:

  “And, you know, the Russians have out suffered Napoleon and the Nazis and so forth. But I don’t think he’s going to out suffer Europe. Europe’s going to have a tough winter, there’s going to be very reduced flow of natural gas, but they’ll get through it and I don’t think they’ll crack on the issue of support for Ukraine.” He explained of the battlefield situation in the east that if Russian forces continue to be backed into a corner this makes Putin more unpredictable and dangerous…

  “He is losing, and the battlefield reality he faces is, I think, irreversible,” Petraeus said, adding that there is “no amount of shambolic mobilization, which is the only way to describe it, no amount of annexation, no amount of even veiled nuclear threats, can actually get him out of this particular situation.”

  Recent weeks have witnessed a flurry of ‘doom and gloom’ apocalyptic sounding headlines based on increased threatening rhetoric from Kremlin officials, including Putin himself, suggesting or implying the future possibility of resorting to tactical nukes in Ukraine if red lines are crossed. However, there’s also been no observed change in posture or movement among Russia’s nuclear forces. US intelligence says it is stepped up its surveillance and monitoring, but this has not led to any changes in the United States’ nuclear posture either.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 18:40

• Ross 'Silk Road' Ulbricht: Facing Life In Prison, Bitcoin's Resilience Inspires Me
  Ross ‘Silk Road’ Ulbricht: Facing Life In Prison, Bitcoin’s Resilience Inspires Me

  Authored by Ross Ulbricht via BitcoinMagazine.com,

  This is an opinion editorial by Ross Ulbricht, the founder of pioneering Bitcoin marketplace Silk Road, who is currently serving a double life sentence plus 40 years in federal prison.

  

  Much more is being said about Bitcoin these days than when I was put in prison. On October 1, 2022, I started my tenth year locked in this cage. Right now, as I put pen to page, the afternoon sun beams through the bars of my window and the murmur of the other prisoners snakes under my cell door.

  Over the years I have heard people say all kinds of things about Bitcoin. I have heard that “Bitcoin is dead” and that “Bitcoin is the future.” I have heard that “Bitcoin is bad for the environment” and that “Bitcoin will set us free.” But I’ve noticed that Bitcoin doesn’t seem to care what we say about it. Not the exchange, of course — that’s driven by the whims of people like all financial markets. I’m talking about Bitcoin itself.

  Bitcoin doesn’t have ears. What we say doesn’t change it. Barring a society-level catastrophe, Bitcoin will keep adding a block every ten minutes, forever. That’s the whole point. Through all the ups and downs since Bitcoin’s birth more than 13 years ago, despite the hype, despite the naysayers, despite everything, Bitcoin has never faltered.

  I can’t say the same for myself, but then again, I am merely human. A couple of years after Bitcoin got started, I made the biggest mistake of my life: I made Silk Road (an anonymous online market). Of course, at the time, I didn’t know it was a mistake. I thought it was a great idea. I thought I was putting Bitcoin to good use and giving people privacy and freedom. When illegal drugs were listed, I thought that was OK too, because I believed drugs should be legalized. Nevermind that they were outlawed and I was risking everything I held dear.

  A couple of years later, I was thrown in prison for drug trafficking and given two life sentences without parole, plus 40 years.

  I was falsely portrayed in the media as a violent drug kingpin. The story of Silk Road was reduced to a cops and robbers cliché. I more than faltered, I hit rock bottom. I’ve been here ever since.

  Bitcoin never faltered. Through the rise and fall of Silk Road, through the relentless years of my incarceration, through competition and catastrophe, Bitcoin keeps going, one block at a time, like clockwork.

  As Bitcoin has marched on, I have struggled to rejoin the world outside of my cage. Year after year, my family, friends, supporters and I have been working toward my freedom, so I can have a second chance at life. But I am tired. I am burned out, I want this nightmare to end, and I don’t know if it ever will, no matter how hard we work at it.

  Before I came to prison, I knew nothing of hard drugs. Since then, I have been locked in 8-by-10-foot cells with lifelong addicts for months on end. I’ve heard their stories and seen what’s become of them. I have faced the fact that, by making Silk Road, I played a role in damaging many lives. I don’t even think about drug war politics anymore. I just know I could never promote drug use again, whether legal or illegal. How could I, if I would never touch them myself? How could I, if I’d be horrified to learn that someone I loved became addicted? All I would think of is the men I’ve come to know whose lives have been ruined.

  I’ve been through many phases during my imprisonment: hopelessness, fear, guilt, acceptance, boredom, feverish desperation, and all the while Bitcoin keeps going. Today, I take inspiration from Bitcoin. I will keep going, day by day, just taking the next step over and over. I will keep adding the next block. Either I’ll regain my freedom or, at the end of my life, I can look back and say, “At least I tried.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 10/03/2022 – 18:20

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• "2023 Will Be Year From Hell" – Martin Armstrong Warns Europe 'Could Suck The Rest Of The World Down The Tubes'
  “2023 Will Be Year From Hell” – Martin Armstrong Warns Europe ‘Could Suck The Rest Of The World Down The Tubes’

  Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

  Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says nothing is going to get better by the end of 2022, and he is still forecasting “chaos” coming in 2023.

  

  Armstrong says the plunge in the stock market last week is all because of “extreme uncertainty.” Armstrong predicted a stock market crash two months ago and contends, “It’s not over.”

  Europe is in big financial trouble with Russian natural gas turned off as a retaliation from the sanctions. Armstrong explains:

  “In Europe, I believe they are actually deliberately doing this, and this is Klaus Schwab’s ‘Great Reset.’

  They know they have a serious problem.

  They lowered rates to below 0% in 2014. They just started raising interest rates. Meanwhile, you ordered all the pension funds throughout Europe to have more than 70% in government bonds. Then they took it negative.

  All the pension funds are insolvent. Europe is fiscal mismanagement on a grand scale. There is no way it can sustain itself, and we are looking at Europe breaking apart.”

  So, could Europe suck the rest of the world down the tubes? Armstrong says, “Oh, absolutely. Europe is the problem…”

  “The crisis in banking will start in Europe…The debt is collapsing. They have no way to sustain themselves.

  The debt market over there is undermining the stability of all the banks.

  You have to understand that reserves are tied to government debt, and this is the perfect storm.

  Yes, the (U.S.) stock market will go down short term. We are not facing a 1929 event or a 90% fall here… Europeans, probably by January of 2023, as this crisis in Ukraine escalates, anybody with half a brain is going to take whatever money they have and get it over here.”

  So, where is smart money going to go? Armstrong says, “Stocks are like gold, it is on the same side of the table and is opposite government debt…”

  “People are not going to be buying government debt. They are going to be looking at anything in the private sector. . . . People are buying whatever they can to get off the grid.”

  Armstrong says governments are borrowing and spend huge amounts of money. The Fed will keep raising interest rates to fight inflation, but Armstrong says,

  “Raising interest rates will only make things worse. We have supply shortages, and raising rates will not fill the gaps.”

  Armstrong has never been more positive on buying gold. Why? Armstrong explains,

  “We are looking at a sovereign debt default. This is what’s going on. This is why Biden will spend whatever he wants because he knows he doesn’t have to pay it back. Eventually, this is what’s going to happen. This is Schwab’s agenda.”

  Armstrong has predicted “2023 will be the year from Hell.”

  Armstrong says, “Civil unrest will only get worse” this year, and he is predicting we will have full blown war next year.

  Armstrong contends Democrats are desperate and will do things like granting illegal aliens citizenship so they can vote in the mid-term elections.

  In closing, Armstrong says, “Something is going to spark a collapse in government again. It’s going to be something, I think, in Europe where they do something drastic because they have no other choice. . . . They need war as the excuse for the defaults of all the government debt.”

  There is much more in the nearly 59-minute interview.

  Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong, cycle expert and author of the upcoming new book “The Plot to Seize Russia, Manufacturing World War III” for 9.24.22.

  *  *  *

  To Donate to USAWatchdog.com, Click Here

  There is some free information, analysis and articles on ArmstrongEconomics.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/02/2022 – 09:20

• VPN Usage Surges Amid Protests, Conflict, & War In 2022
  VPN Usage Surges Amid Protests, Conflict, & War In 2022

  Iran has shut down WhatsApp and Instagram in an attempt to stifle the discontent growing across the nation, following the death of 22 year-old Mahsa Amini, who died in custody after being arrested by morality police.

  Internet shutdowns are fairly commonplace in authoritarian societies on the eve of change, where governments may seek to gain control of the narrative by trying to stop communication and the sharing of information which can fuel protests and uprisings. After all, the internet can be a powerful tool for social mobilization, as shown by the Arab Spring movement of uprisings which began in the early 2010s.

  As Statista’s Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, citizens tend to circumnavigate such crackdowns by downloading virtual private networks, or VPNs, which allows them to get around restrictions to certain blocked sites.

  These do not work, however, when countries shut off basic internet completely.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  In Iran, demand for VPN downloads increased by more than 3000 percent in September, according to TopVPN100.com.

  Yet, other countries too have seen surges this year.

  For instance, Sri Lanka saw a 17,000 percent increase in VPN downloads on April 3 2022, when social media platforms Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Instagram and WhatsApp were banned.

  The internet blackout came as the government enforced a curfew, attempting to keep protesters from hitting the streets over a disastrous economic downturn, mainly attributed to governmental mishandling, which led to major food and fuel shortages.

  Azerbaijan and Armenia, which saw clashes erupt on the border earlier this month, have also seen people on both sides of the border seek out VPNs this year, with an increase of 751 percent and 84 percent, respectively.

  Meanwhile, Russia saw an uptick of more than 2,600 percent of VPN demand and Ukraine saw a 600 percent increase since the war started in February.

  In Russia, the BBC, Deutsche Welle, and Voice of America were among a number of foreign news organizations’ websites to be blocked for disseminating what it alleged was fake news. And so this chart visualizes just how crucial cyberspace is as a forefront for warfare today.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/02/2022 – 08:45

• Gold & Geopolitics
  Gold & Geopolitics

  Gold and silver dumped and pumped this week – after a week of consolidation – against a background of a rising dollar on the foreign exchanges.

  

  As the chart below shows, silver is up around 6% since 1 September, while gold is down around 3%…

  

  But as GoldMoney.com’s Alasdair Macleod details below, Silver is extremely oversold in illiquid conditions, illustrated by our next chart.

  The level of open interest is probably the best indicator of market sentiment.

  

  At under 132,000 contracts it is as oversold as it was in early May 2020, just before the price rocketed higher from under $15, doubling in only three months. 

  Being a far larger and more liquid market, the position in gold is less obviously oversold, as our next chart suggests.

  

  Nevertheless, we can see that open interest refuses to fall below the 450,000-contract level, which suggests that a rally from here is a high probability, potentially taking out all-time highs.

  This price resilience is in the face of severe weakness in the yen, euro, pound, and yuan. It is reflected in the dollar’s trade weighted index, which continues to power ahead.

  

  Undoubtedly, there are very good reasons to get out of the other currencies and into dollars. But the dollar’s overbought condition must be extreme, exposing it to sudden and sharp bear squeezes.

  Together with the deeply oversold position for gold and silver, undoubtedly mirrored in a raft of commodities and energy contracts, we can see how traders might become very badly wrong-footed.

  There are other developments worthy of attention – this time in Russia. Following the referenda in Ukraine, Russia’s border marches westwards, and in the absence of a ceasefire, the Ukrainians supported by NATO will be attacking Russia directly. It would be an escalation into a direct conflict between Russia and NATO.

  Putin probably expects an uneasy ceasefire to follow.

  

  Meanwhile, his attention appears to be already turning to monetary and financial matters, centred on gold.

  Together with the Russian Central Bank’s reserves, Russia’s state fund and its National Wealth Fund are believed to hold about 12,000 tonnes of gold.

  Steps have been taken to “mobilise” the non-reserve gold.

  This is not for emergency war funding as some commentators think, but more likely to be so that they can be included in central bank reserves.

  Russia could then declare the largest monetary gold reserves in the world.

  Together with the recently announced Moscow gold standard and plans for a new trade settlement currency to replace the dollar, enhanced gold reserves will provide support a new gold standard for cross-border trade.

  It would replace payments to Russia for energy in weak Asian currencies, and probably force China to declare its true gold reserves as well.

  If this is Putin’s plan, the consequences for Western fiat currencies are likely to be devastating – suffering the financial equivalent of a nuclear attack.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/02/2022 – 08:10

• Labour Opens Up Massive Lead In UK Polls
  Labour Opens Up Massive Lead In UK Polls

  After prime minister Truss and chancellor Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-budget announcement last Friday, followed by intervention from the Bank of England and a rebuke from the IMF, days of radio silence from the Conservative leader were broken with a string of car crash local radio interviews and a dogged defiance to row back on any of her government‘s latest decisions.

  

  Already behind Labour in the polls since the turn of the year, Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes that the Conservatives now suddenly find themselves second to a Labour party enjoying the largest lead recorded in any published poll since the late 90s.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  One projection estimates a general election victory on this scale would equate to a loss of 304 seats for the Conservatives, and a Labour gain of 296.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/02/2022 – 07:35

• The War Has Just Begun
  The War Has Just Begun

  Via ‘Big Serge’ Thoughts Substack,

  The Winter of Yuri

  I have been attempting for several days to collect my thoughts on the Russo-Ukrainian War and condense them into another analysis piece, but my efforts were consistently frustrated by the war’s stubborn refusal to sit still. After a slow, attrititional grind for much of the summer, events have begun to accelerate, calling to mind a famous quip from Vladimir Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

  

  “You should know, by and large, we haven’t even started anything yet in earnest.”

  This has been one of those weeks. It began with the commencement of referenda in four former Ukrainian oblasts to determine whether or not to join the Russian Federation, accompanied by Putin’s announcement that reservists would be called up to augment the force deployment in Ukraine. Further excitement bubbled up from the Baltic seabed with the mysterious destruction of the Nordstream pipelines. Nuclear rumors circulate, and all the while the war on the ground continues.

  In all, it is clear that we are currently in the transitional period towards a new phase of the war, with higher Russian force deployment, expanded rules of engagement, and greater intensity looming. Season 2 of the Special Military Operation looms, and with it the Winter of Yuri:

  

  Let’s try to process all the developments of the past few weeks and get a handle on the trajectory in Ukraine.

  Annexation

  The keystone event at the heart of recent escalation was the announcement of referenda in four regions (Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson) to determine the question of entry into the Russian Federation. The implication of course was that if the referenda succeeded (a question that was never in doubt), these regions would be annexed to Russia. While there were some rumors circulating that Russia would delay the annexation, this was never really plausible. To allow these regions to vote in favor of joining Russia only to leave them out in the cold would be monumentally unpopular and raise serious doubts about Russia’s commitment to its people in Ukraine.

  Formal annexation is a certainty, if not on September 30th as rumored, then within the next week.

  All of this is rather predictable, and completes the first layer of annexations which I noted in previous analysis. The reasoning is not particularly complex: clearing the Donbas and securing Crimea were the absolute minimum Russian objectives for the war, and securing Crimea requires both a land bridge with road and rail connections (Zaporizhia oblast) and controlling Crimea’s water sources (Kherson). These minimum objectives have now been formally designated, though of course Ukraine maintains some military activity on these territories and will have to be dislodged.

  

  The Big Serge Annexation Map: Phase 1 Complete

  I think, however, that people lost focus as to what the referenda and the ensuing annexation means. Western talking points focused on the illegitimacy of the votes and the illegality of any annexation, but this is really not very interesting or important. The legitimacy of annexation is derived from whether or not Russian administration can succeed in these regions. Legitimacy, as such, is merely a question of efficacy of state power. Can the state protect, extract, and adjudicate?

  In any case, what is far more interesting than the technicalities of the referenda is what the decision to annex these regions says about Russian intentions. Once these regions become formally annexed, they will be viewed by the Russian state as sovereign Russian territory, subject to protection with the full range of Russian capabilities, including (in the most dire and unlikely scenario) nuclear weapons. When Medvedev pointed this out, it was bizarrely spun as a “nuclear threat”, but what he was actually trying to communicate is that these four oblasts will become part of Russia’s minimum definition of state integrity – non-negotiables, in other words.

  I think the best way to formulate it is as such:

  Annexation confers a formal designation that a territory has been deemed existentially important to the Russian state, and will be contested as if the integrity of the nation and state is at risk.

  Those fixating on the “legality” of the referenda (as if such a thing exists) and Medvedev’s supposed nuclear blackmail are missing this point. Russia is telling us where it currently draws the line for its absolute minimum peace conditions. It’s not walking away without at least these four oblasts, and it considers the full range of state capabilities to be in play to achieve that goal.

  Force Generation

  The move to hold referenda and eventually annex the southeastern rim was accompanied with Putin’s long-awaited announcement of a “partial mobilization”. Ostensibly, the initial order calls up just 300,000 men with previous military experience, but the door is left upon for further surges at the discretion of the president’s office. Implicitly, Putin can now ramp up the mobilization as he sees fit without needing to make further announcements or sign more paperwork. This is similar to American Lend-Lease or the “Authorization for Use of Military Force” in America, where the door is opened once and the President is then free to move at will without even informing the public.

  It was increasingly clear that Russia needed to raise its force deployment. Ukraine’s successful drive to the Oskil River was made possible by Russian economy of force. The Russian army had completely hollowed out Kharkiv Oblast, leaving only a thin screening force of national guardsmen and LNR militia. In places where the Russian Army has chosen to deploy sizeable regular formations, the results have been disastrous for Ukraine – the infamous Kherson Counteroffensive turned into a shooting gallery for Russian artillery, with the Ukrainian Army haplessly funneling men into a hopeless bridgehead at Andriivka.

  

  A Shooting Gallery

  So far in this war, Ukraine has achieved two big successes retaking territory: first in the spring, around Kiev, and now the late summer recapture of Kharkov Oblast. In both cases, the Russians had preemptively hollowed out the sector. We have yet to see a successful Ukrainian offensive against the Russian Army in a defensive posture. The obvious solution, therefore, is to raise the force deployment so that it is no longer necessary to hollow out sections of the front.

  The initial surge of 300,000 men is being a bit muddled. Not all of the men being called up will be sent to Ukraine. Many will remain in Russia on garrison duty so that existing ready formations can be rotated to Ukraine. Therefore, it is likely that we will see more Russian units arriving in theater much sooner than expected. Additionally, many of the units originally committed to Ukraine have been off the front for refitting and resting. The scale and pace of Russia’s new force generation is likely to shock people. On the whole, the timing of Russia’s manpower surge coincides with the depletion of Ukrainian capabilities.

  Ukraine spent the summer sending its 2nd tier conscripts to the front in the Donbas as it lovingly collected NATO-donated weapons and trained units in the rear. With generous NATO help, Ukraine was able to accumulate forces for two full scale offensives – one in Kherson (which failed spectacularly) and one in Kharkov (which succeeded in pushing past the Russian screening force and reaching the Oskil). Much of that carefully accumulated fighting power is now gone or degraded. Rumors circulated of a third offensive towards Melitipol, but Ukraine does not seem to have the combat power to achieve this, and strong Russian forces are in the region behind prepared defensive lines.

  On the whole, therefore, Ukraine’s window for offensive operations has closed, and what remains is closing quickly. The last zone of intense Ukrainian operations is around Lyman, where aggressive Ukrainian attacks have so far failed to either storm or encircle the town. It is still possible that they take Lyman and consolidate control of Kupyansk, but this would likely represent the culmination of Ukrainian offensive capability. For now, the area around Lyman is a killing zone that exposes attacking Ukrainian troops to Russian air and ground fires.

  The large scale view of force ratios is as follows:

  Ukraine has spent much of the combat power that they accumulated with NATO help during the summer, and will have an urgent need to reduce combat intensity for refitting and rearming at precisely the same time that Russian combat power in the theater begins to surge.

  Simultaneously, NATO’s ability to arm Ukraine is on the verge of exhaustion. Let’s look at this more closely.

  Depleting NATO

  One of the more fascinating aspects of the war in Ukraine is the extent to which Russia has contrived to attrit NATO military hardware without fighting a direct war with NATO forces. In a previous analysis I referred to Ukraine as a vampiric force which has reversed the logic of the proxy war; it’s a black hole sucking in NATO gear for destruction.

  There are now very limited stockpiles to draw from to continue to arm Ukraine. Military Watch Magazine noted that NATO has drained the old Warsaw Pact tank park, leaving them bereft of Soviet tanks to donate to Ukraine. Once these reservoirs are fully tapped, the only option will be giving Ukraine western tank models. This, however, is much harder than it sounds, because it would require not only extensive training of tank crews, but also an entirely different selection of ammunition, spare parts, and repair facilities.

  Tanks are not the only problem, however. Ukraine is now staring down the barrel (heh heh) of a serious shortage of conventional tube artillery. Earlier in the summer, the United States donated 155mm howitzers, but with stockpiles of both guns and shells dwindling, they’ve recently been forced to turn to lower caliber towed trash. After the announcement of yet another aid tranche on September 28th, the USA has now put together five consecutive packages which do not contain any conventional 155mm shells. Shells for Ukraine’s Soviet vintage artillery were running low as early as June.

  In effect, the effort to keep Ukraine’s artillery arm functioning has gone through a few phases. In the first phase, Warsaw Pact stockpiles of Soviet shells were drained to supply Ukraine’s existing guns. In the second phase, Ukraine was given mid-level western capabilities, especially the 155mm howitzer. Now that 155mm shells are running low, Ukraine has to make do with 105mm guns which are badly outranged by Russian howitzers and will be, in a word, doomed in any kind of counterbattery action.

  As a substitute for adequate tube artillery, the latest aid package does include 18 more of the internet’s favorite meme weapon – the HIMARS Multiple Launch Rocket System. What is not explicitly mentioned in the press release is that the HIMARS systems don’t exist in current US inventories and will have to be built, and are thus unlikely to arrive in Ukraine for several years.

  The increasing difficulties in arming Ukraine coincide with the rapid closing of Ukraine’s window of operational opportunity. The forces accumulated over the summer are degraded and fought out, and every subsequent rebuild of the Ukrainian first tier forces will become harder as manpower is destroyed and NATO arsenals are depleted. This depletion comes precisely as Russian force generation is surging, foretelling the Winter of Yuri.

  The Winter War

  Anyone who expects the war to slow down during the winter is in for a surprise. Russia is going to launch a late autumn/winter offensive and achieve significant gains. The arc of force generation (both Russia’s increasing force accumulation and Ukraine’s degradation) coincide with the approach of cold weather.

  Let’s make a brief note about combat in the cold. Russia is perfectly capable of waging effective operations in the snow. Going back to World War Two, the Red Army was more than capable of offensive success during the winter, starting in 1941 with the general counteroffensive at Moscow, again in 1942 with the destruction of the German 6th Army at Stalingrad, and in 1943-44 with two successful large scale offensives beginning in the winter. Now, of course World War Two is not directly applicable in all ways, but we can establish that from a technical standpoint there is a clearly established capability to wage operations in cold weather.

  We also have more recent examples. In 2015, during the first Donbas War, LNR and DNR forces launched a pincer operation which successfully encircled a Ukrainian battalion at the Battle of Debaltseve. And, of course, the Russo-Ukrainian War begin in February, when much of northern Ukraine was below freezing temperatures.

  

  Nice Move

  Winter weather actually favors a Russian offensive for multiple reasons. One of the paradoxes of military operations is that freezing weather actually enhances mobility – vehicles can get stuck in mud, but not on frozen ground. From 1941-43, German troops celebrated the arrival of spring, because the thaw promised to bog the Red Army down in mud and slow their momentum. The winter death of foliage also reduces the cover available to troops in a defensive posture. And, of course, cold weather favors the side with more reliable access to energy.

  As for where Russia will choose to commit its newly generated forces, there are four realistic possibilities, which I will enumerate in no particular order:

  1. Reopening the Northern Front with an operation around Kharkov. The attractiveness of this option is clear. A Russian move in force towards Kharkov would immediately collapse all of Ukraine’s gains towards the Oskil by compromising their rear areas.

  2. An offensive on Nikolayev out of the Kherson region. This would move further towards the goal of a landlocked Ukraine, and would take advantage of the fact that Ukrainian forces in this region are badly chewed up after their own failed offensive.

  3. Massive commitment to the Donbas to finish the liberation of DNR territory by capturing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. This is less likely, as Russia has demonstrated comfort with the slow tempo of operations on this front.

  4. A push north from the Melitopol area towards Zaparozhia. This would safeguard the nuclear powerplant and end any credible threats to the land bridge to Crimea.

  Other possibilities I regard as unlikely. A second advance on Kiev would make little operational sense, as it would not support any of the existing fronts. I would expect action around Kiev only if the new force generation is significantly larger than the headline number of 300,000. Otherwise, Russia’s winter offensives are likely to be concentrated on mutually supporting fronts. I think some movement to reopen the northern is likely, as it would completely compromise Ukraine’s gains in the Izyum-Kupyansk direction. There are rumors that forces are being moved into Belarus, but I actually think the Chernigov-Sumy axis would be more likely than a new Kiev operation, as it could be supportive of an offensive on Kharkov.

  

  Potential Axes of Winter Advance (Base Map Credit: @War_Mapper)

  On the broadest level, it is clear that Ukraine’s window to conduct offensive operations is nearing its close, and the force generation ratios on the ground are going to swing decisively in Russia’s favor through the winter.

  Nordstream and Escalation

  As we were pondering these developments on the ground, yet another plotline emerged underwater. The first hint that something was amiss was the news that pressure in the Nordstream 1 pipeline was dropping mysteriously. It was then revealed that the pipeline – along with the non-operational Nordstream 2 – had suffered serious damage. Swedish seismologists recorded explosions on the floor of the Baltic Sea, and it was revealed that the pipelines are heavily damaged.

  Let’s be frank about this. Russia did not blow up its own pipelines, and it is ludicrous to suggest that they did. The importance of the pipeline to Russia lay in the fact that it could be switched on and off, providing a mechanism for leverage and negotiation vis a vis Germany. In the classic carrot and stick formulation, one cannot move the donkey if the carrot is blown up. The *only* feasible scenario in which Russia might be responsible for the sabotage would be if some hardliner faction within the Russian government felt that Putin was moving too slowly, and wanted to force an escalation. This would imply, however, that Putin is losing internal control, and there is no evidence whatsoever for such a theory.

  And so, we return to elementary analysis, and ask: Cui bono? Who benefits? Well, considering Poland celebrated the opening of a new pipeline to Norway only a few days ago, and a certain former Polish MP cryptically thanked the United States on Twitter, it is fair to make a few guesses.

  

  The first lesson of doing crimes is not to brag about it on twitter

  Let us briefly meditate on the actual implications of Nordstream’s demise.

  1. Germany loses what little autonomy and flexibility it had, making it even more dependent on the United States.

  2. Russia loses a point of leverage over Europe, reducing the inducements to negotiation.

  3. Poland and Ukraine become even more critical transit hubs for gas.

  Russia clearly perceives this as a bridge burning move of sabotage by NATO, designed to back them into a corner. The Russian government has decried it as an act of “international terrorism” and argued that the explosions occurred in areas “controlled by NATO” – the concatenation of these statements is that they blame NATO for an act of terrorism, without explicitly saying that. This precipitated another meeting of the Russian National Security Council.

  Many western nations have advised their citizens to leave Russia immediately, suggesting they are worried about escalation (this coincides with Ukraine’s unhinged claim that Russia may be about to use nuclear weapons). For the time being, I expect Russian escalation to remain confined to Ukraine itself, likely coinciding with the deployment of additional Russian ground forces. If Russia feels compelled to undertake an out of theater escalation, targeting American satellites, digital infrastructure, or forces in Syria remain the most likely option.

  On the Precipice

  I am fully cognizant that my views will be spun as “coping” after Ukraine’s gains in Kharkov oblast, but time will tell out. Ukraine is on its last legs – they drained everything usable out of NATO stockpiles to build up a first tier force over the summer, and that force has been mauled and degraded beyond repair just as Russia’s force generation is set to massively increase. Winter will bring not only the eclipse of the Ukrainian army, the destruction of vital infrastructure, and the loss of new territory and population centers, but also a severe economic crisis in Europe. In the end, the United States will be left to rule over a deindustrialized and degraded Europe, and a rump Ukrainian trashcanistan sequestered west of the Dnieper.

  For now, though, we are in the interregnum as the last flames of Ukraine’s fighting power flickers out. Then there will be an operational pause, and then a Russian winter offensive. There will be several weeks where nothing happens, and then everything will happen.

  During that operational pause, you may be tempted to ask – “is it done, Yuri?”

  No, Comrade Premiere. It has only begun.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 10/02/2022 – 07:00

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• Snowden Didn't "Flee to Russia": Obama Trapped Him There
  Snowden Didn’t “Flee to Russia”: Obama Trapped Him There

  Authored by Brian McGlinchey via Stark Realities

  When Russian President Vladimir Putin granted citizenship to NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden on Monday, the news revived a long-simmering debate about the propriety of his revelations of U.S. government secrets. At the same time, it prompted reiterations of a widely-embraced falsehood: that Snowden “fled to Russia.”

  The disinformation-trafficking wasn’t limited to random people on social media. Among others, The New York Times, The Guardian, ABC, Christian Science Monitor and Canada’s CBC all asserted in the past week that Snowden “fled to Russia” in 2013 after revealing that the United States government had created a mass surveillance regime targeting its own citizens, in violation of the U.S. Constitution’s Fourth Amendment.

  What many people don’t realize — and what some people both inside the government and out of it purposefully ignore — is that Snowden wasn’t traveling to Russia, but merely through it.

  When he left Hong Kong after meeting with journalists Glenn Greenwald and Laura Poitras and turning over hundreds of thousands of stolen files, Snowden’s ultimate destination was Quito, Ecuador.

  It’s important to note that Snowden says that, before leaving, he destroyed his cryptographic keys that provided him access to the files, and didn’t bring any copies of the files with him.

  At the time, the Ecuadoran government was providing political asylum to Wikileaks publisher Julian Assange at the country’s London consulate, and Snowden hoped Ecuador would provide him asylum as well.

  Snowden’s itinerary was arranged such that he wouldn’t land in countries that would extradite him to the United States. Nor would he cross U.S. airspace along the way. He was to make four flights in all, taking him from Hong Kong to Moscow, then Havana, Cuba; Caracas, Venezuela and finally Quito.

  However, upon arriving in Moscow, Snowden was escorted by Russian security officials to an airport conference room, where they informed him that, while he was flying to Moscow, the Obama administration had invalidated his passport.

  He’d spend the next 40 days at the Sheremetyevo airport, during which he applied to 27 countries for political asylum. “Not a single one of them was willing to stand up to American pressure,” Snowden wrote in his memoir, Permanent Record, “with some countries refusing outright, and others declaring they were unable to even consider my request until I arrived in their territory — a feat that was impossible.”

  Seemingly tired of the spectacle, Putin granted Snowden asylum, and he’s been in Russia ever since. The essential point, however, is that Snowden is in Russia because the Obama administration deliberately trapped him there.

  In 2013 and ever since, rabid Snowden detractors have failed to acknowledge how that move by the Obama White House belied its own assertions that Snowden was a traitor who traveled to Moscow with highly valuable intelligence information and was at high risk of turning it over to the Russian government.

  Think about it: if Obama officials believed Snowden had possession of an extremely sensitive archive of top secret documents – as they insist but Snowden denies – why would they *want to trap him in Russia*?

  Because they knew it’d be easy to convince idiots he was a Kremlin spy.

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) September 26, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Aside from revealing the unconstitutional surveillance regime, Snowden’s disclosures also proved that Director of National Intelligence James Clapper had committed perjury in testifying before Congress:

  Clapper didn’t merely escape perjury charges, termination or a shameful resignation — CNN actually put him on the payroll as a “national security analyst,” giving him a pulpit from which to continue spewing all manner of falsehoods on behalf of the national security establishment, on everything from Russiagate to Hunter Biden’s laptop.

  Meanwhile, though Snowden has been vindicated many times over — including a 2020 federal court ruling that the NSA’s surveillance program violated the Constitution — he’s compelled to live in Russia to escape prosecution under the Espionage Act of 1917.

  Which brings us to another myth that goes hand-in-hand with “fled to Russia” falsehood: Detractors routinely say Snowden was a “coward” to flee the United States at all.

  The noble course of action, they say, would be to go to trial in America and let a jury of his peers decide whether he was justified in exposing his government’s crimes by leaking secret documents to journalists.

  However, as government-whistleblower attorney Jesselyn Radack explained in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, that’s not how Espionage Act prosecutions work:

  “The Espionage Act has morphed into a strict liability law, which means the government does not have to show the defendant had a felonious intent. A defendant cannot argue that the information was improperly classified…The motive and intent of the whistleblower are irrelevant. And there is no whistleblower defense, meaning the public value of the material disclosed does not matter at all.”

  In short, the only way for Snowden to be treated justly is for him to be pardoned or given a plea deal with a very short sentence.

  As the intelligence community continues to wield excessive influence on our government, neither outcome is likely anytime soon.

  Stark Realities undermines official narratives, demolishes conventional wisdom and exposes fundamental myths across the political spectrum. Read more and subscribe at starkrealities.substack.com

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 23:30

• A Global Overview of Human Migration
  A Global Overview of Human Migration

  According to the latest data published by the United Nations, the number of international migrants amounted to 281 million in 2020, which is equivalent to 3.6 percent of the world’s population.

  By “migrant”, it is meant: Any person who, leaving his or her usual place of residence, crosses an international border, regardless of the nature and cause of the movement or the duration of the stay.

  The census therefore covers a wide range of circumstances and includes both war and economic refugees – estimated at more than 82 million – and voluntary migrants: workers, students, retirees, etc.

  This map by Statista’s Martin Armstrong provides an overview of the migration trends in the world…

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  It shows the annual net migration (arrivals minus departures) of all countries and territories, relative to their population size.

  Between 2017 and 2021, the regions of the world that lost the largest share of people via emigration were the Marshall Islands and American Samoa in the Pacific Ocean, followed by Lebanon and Venezuela.

  During this period, these four territories, some of which are experiencing severe economic hardship, experienced an average net loss of 28 to 42 inhabitants per 1,000 people per year.

  In contrast, the regions that attracted the most migrants relative to their population size were the New Zealand-administered Tokelau Archipelago, the Caribbean tax haven of the Turks and Caicos Islands and, in Europe, Malta.

  For these three places, the average annual net migration was between 22 and 45 additional persons per 1,000 inhabitants.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 23:00

• Firearm Background-Checks Now Report Home Addresses Of Gun Owners
  Firearm Background-Checks Now Report Home Addresses Of Gun Owners

  Submitted by Gun Owners of America,

  Gun Owners of America has obtained an email from the FBI regarding changes to the NICS background check system to implement gun control. 

  On Monday, September 26, 2022, federal firearms licensees (FFL) will experience… new features of the FBI’s NICS transaction process. One… change is tied to the passage of the NICS Denial Notification Act of 2022. 

  Collection of Buyer’s Address— The NICS Denial Notification Act of 2022 requires the FBI’s NICS Section to notify state, local, or tribal law enforcement of all FBI NICS denied transactions within 24 hours. The FBI must provide notification to law enforcement based upon the location of the FFL and if different, the purchaser’s address. To support the determination of what local agency should receive the notification, FFLs will be required to provide the buyer’s complete address to NICS as recorded on the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives Form 4473 when transactions are denied or delayed. The address information will be required before the status can be provided or retrieved either by the NICS contracted call center or via the NICS E-Check.  

  

  That matches up closely with the NICS Denial notification act, which read: 

  “If the national instant criminal background check system…provides notice… that” a transferee is prohibited person then the DOJ shall “report to the local law enforcement [and] the State or Tribe of residence of the person—… within 24 hours”  

  This change would require that an investigation be launched into every background check denial, even though nine times out of 10, the NICS system has falsely denied law-abiding citizens from exercising their rights.  

  This is a significant change to the system, as, before the passage of the NICS denial notification act, dealers were only required to provide the state of residence of a customer. Now they will have to provide the transferee’s full address after the NICS system processes the background check in the event of a delay or denial.

  Delays in background checks are extremely common. Sometimes it’s as simple as having a common name or having a security clearance with the federal government.

  Check out GOA’s Coverage of this new gun control in the video above.

  GOA fought against the NICS Denial Notification Act in March, but since 2019, we’ve been fighting against all gun control in the Violence Against Women Act, also known as VAWA.  

  The NICS Denial Notification Act was among the gun control to pass this last congress. That’s because certain Republicans backstabbed gun owners, and for all the horrible gun control removed from the bill, some gun control remained: 

  • Sections 1101-1102: the NICS Denial Notification Act to launch criminal investigations into firearm background check denials—even though 9 out of 10 times the system falsely denies a law-abiding citizen. 
  • Section 1103: funding for ATF to deputize local police to enforce federal gun laws, especially to undermine Second Amendment Protection Act (SAPA) states. 

  Eighteen Republican senators voted with anti-gun Democrats in favor of the final passage of gun control. 

  These Senators believe they were given political “cover” as other ostensibly “pro-gun” groups backed the compromise by refusing to oppose the language publicly. 

  *  *  *

  We intend to fight gun control in that as well, but we need your help.  

  Congress may be immoral, but they’re also lazy.  

  You need to tell them they won’t get an easy vote or break if they stuff gun control in a government funding bill. 

  Our team in Washington, DC, couldn’t do the work we do or have the success without your grassroots activism.  

  We’ll hold the line for you in Washington.

  We are No Compromise. Join the Fight Now.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 22:30

• Visualizing The Global Wealth Pyramid
  Visualizing The Global Wealth Pyramid

  The level of financial inequality around the world is staggering…

  As Statista’s Martin Armstrong reports, according to a new Credit Suisse report, 47.8 percent of global household wealth is in the hands of just 1.2 percent of the world’s population.

  Those 62.5 million individuals control a staggering $221.7 trillion, as can be seen on this infographic…

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Below that, 627 million people own $176.5 trillion, 38.1 percent of global wealth, despite accounting for just 11.8 percent of the adult population.

  The base of the pyramid is the most poignant, and it shows how 2.8 billion people (53.2 percent of the world’s population) share a combined wealth of $5 trillion – which is just 1.1 percent of total global wealth.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 22:00

• Navy Attempting To Remove Sailor Who Refused Vaccine Under 'Pretext' Of Attempted Desertion: Attorney
  Navy Attempting To Remove Sailor Who Refused Vaccine Under ‘Pretext’ Of Attempted Desertion: Attorney

  Authored by J.M. Phelps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Navy Petty Officer Second Class Kristin Fregeau is being discharged from the Navy for attempted desertion, but her attorney contends that this is a cover for separating the officer because she had a religious objection to the vaccine mandate.

  “The Navy couldn’t separate [Fregeau] for vaccine refusal, so they drummed up a story about attempted desertion,” Sean Timmons, Freugeau’s attorney, told The Epoch Times.

  

  The attempted desertion charge arose from Fregeau leaving her base for 20 days in December 2021 without prior approval.

  But Timmons said the petty officer moved to Tennessee during that period to remove her child from moldy living conditions at the base that was harmful to their health.

  “She moved her family under duress, and out of necessity, away from mold-infested government quarters to move her children to reasonable living accommodations,” the attorney said.

  Fregeau’s Story

  In March 2020, Fregeau was temporarily assigned to shore duty at Navy Air Logistics Office (NALO) in New Orleans where she could receive help for dealing with postpartum depression. By November 2020, she had checked herself into a hospital program for mental health issues and began to address her struggles with some success.

  After returning to her previous work assignment at NALO, she began to experience mold issues at her residence. After many encounters and arguments with the housing administration, Fregeau said the ducts were cleaned and the leaking air conditioning unit was replaced.

  In the months prior to the mold issue being addressed, Fregeau’s first child began having asthma-like symptoms. They subsided following the work on the home’s duct and air conditioner. But four months later, the mold—although not visible at this time—returned in the wake of Hurricane Ida in September 2021, Fregeau said.

  “Our daughter became physically ill again and was not getting better,” the petty officer said. “She was coughing uncontrollably, was in a constant state of congestion and unable to sleep.”

  Out of concern for her daughter’s health, Fregeau took the child to a pediatrician who advised “it was an environmental mold issue and recommended we get out of the house,” she said. Rather than going through the ordeal again dealing with housing and waiting for the mold issue to be addressed, she and her husband decided to move out.

  The Fregeau family struggled to find immediate housing in the area due to Hurricane Ida. And that’s when another issue cropped up to add to Fregeau’s difficulties. In November 2021, she was denied religious accommodation for the COVID-19 vaccine mandate and the process to separate her from the Navy would begin.

  ‘Absent Under Duress’: Lawyer

  According to Timmons, a “confluence of tough events” led Fregeau to act “out of necessity and under duress” in moving her family off the base.

  “She moved her children to Tennessee to be with family while she sorted things out,” he said. This is what ultimately led to an alleged 20-day unauthorized absence, beginning Dec. 2, 2021.

  Timmons acknowledged Fregeau should have gotten “express approval” ahead of time. Because she didn’t, he admitted, “she is culpable and at fault.” However, the attorney went on to say that service members are rarely discharged for being absent without leave (AWOL) for a couple of weeks.

  “She was absent under duress, only concerned about the care, safety, and welfare of her children,” he said.

  “She didn’t miss any movement, mobilization, or deployment; she missed some office work,” he added. “But now that the Navy cannot separate her for vaccine refusal, they’re putting forth this bogus pretext that she’s being separated for attempted desertion.”

  Timmons argues that the elements for an unauthorized absence have not been met. Article 86 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice allows a service member to withdraw if it’s under necessity and under duress, he said, adding that “desertion requires being gone more than 30 days.”

  Fregeau said, “Once I pulled myself together, I didn’t feel comfortable going back to work without any legal representation, but I wanted to make things right and return to work.” With the help of a previous attorney, she checked back into command on Dec. 20, and “it was business as usual.”

  At this time, Fregeau said, “I was never sat down, and an investigation never took place to talk about any type of non-judicial punishment or anything of that sort.” However, she said, the Navy would continue the process of separating her for refusing to take the vaccine.

  But since then, the Navy did go ahead with pressing for non-judicial punishment (NJP).

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 21:30

• 'Range Anxiety' – How Far Can An EV Go On One Charge?
  ‘Range Anxiety’ – How Far Can An EV Go On One Charge?

  EV adoption has grown rapidly in recent years, but many prospective buyers still have doubts about electric car ranges.

  In fact, as Visual Capitalist’s Govind Bhutada details below, 33% of new car buyers chose range anxiety – the concern about how far an EV can drive on a full charge – as their top inhibitor to purchasing electric cars in a survey conducted by EY.

  So, how far can the average electric car go on one charge, and how does that compare with the typical range of gas-powered cars?

  

  The Rise in EV Ranges

  Thanks to improvements in battery technology, the average range of electric cars has more than doubled over the last decade, according to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

  

   

  *Max range for EVs offered in the United States.
  Source: IEA, U.S. DOE

  As of 2021, the average battery-powered EV could travel 217 miles (349 km) on a single charge. It represents a 44% increase from 151 miles (243 km) in 2017 and a 152% increase relative to a decade ago.

  Despite the steady growth, EVs still fall short when compared to gas-powered cars. For example, in 2021, the median gas car range (on one full tank) in the U.S. was around 413 miles (664 km)—nearly double what the average EV would cover.

  As automakers roll out new models, electric car ranges are likely to continue increasing and could soon match those of their gas-powered counterparts. It’s important to note that EV ranges can change depending on external conditions.

  What Affects EV Ranges?

  In theory, EV ranges depend on battery capacity and motor efficiency, but real-world results can vary based on several factors:

  • Weather: At temperatures below 20℉ (-6.7℃), EVs can lose around 12% of their range, rising to 41% if heating is turned on inside the vehicle.

  • Operating Conditions: Thanks to regenerative braking, EVs may extend their maximum range during city driving.

  • Speed: When driving at high speeds, EV motors spin faster at a less efficient rate. This may result in range loss.

  On the contrary, when driven at optimal temperatures of about 70℉ (21.5℃), EVs can exceed their rated range, according to an analysis by Geotab.

  The 10 Longest-Range Electric Cars in America

  Here are the 10 longest-range electric cars available in the U.S. as of 2022, based on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) range estimates:

  

   

  Source: Car and Driver

  The top-spec Lucid Air offers the highest range of any EV with a price tag of $170,500, followed by the Tesla Model S. But the Tesla Model 3 offers the most bang for your buck if range and price are the only two factors in consideration.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 21:00

• FBI Singles Out Conservative Agents In 'Purge,' Retaliates Against Whistleblowers: GOP Lawmakers
  FBI Singles Out Conservative Agents In ‘Purge,’ Retaliates Against Whistleblowers: GOP Lawmakers

  Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  House Judiciary Republicans are asking a senior FBI official to testify in a transcribed interview, alleging the official has signed off on many “adverse personnel actions” against conservative agents, saying they were being targeted in a “purge.”

  Their allegations concern Jennifer Leigh Moore, the executive assistant director of the FBI’s human resources branch, according to a Sept. 29 letter from Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), and Mike Johnson (R-La.). Jordan is the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee.

  “This is beyond outrageous,” the House Judiciary GOP wrote on Twitter.

  The lawmakers said they found out how conservative agents were being targeted while investigating “serious allegations of abuse and misconduct within the senior leadership of the Department of Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.”

  “During the course of this investigation, we have received protected whistleblower disclosures that the FBI is engaging in a ‘purge’ of employees with conservative views by revoking their security clearances and indefinitely suspending these employees,” the lawmakers wrote.

  They added, “Many of the formal notices for these adverse personnel actions have been signed by you,” referring to Moore.

  What’s more, the three lawmakers allege that Moore has “retaliated against at least one whistleblower who has made protected disclosures to Congress.”

  

  That whistleblower shared information with the House Judiciary Committee about the Justice Department’s decision last year to create a threat tag label, to track cases of parents who protested at school board meetings, Jordan said in an interview with Fox News.

  “Once a whistleblower makes a protected disclosure, an agency is prohibited from retaliating against the employee for that disclosure by taking or failing to take a personnel action,” the lawmakers wrote. “Your efforts to interfere with FBI employees who seek to expose the Bureau’s misconduct by communicating directly with Congress cannot be condoned.”

  They added, “As we informed [FBI] Director Christopher Wray, we take whistleblower retaliation seriously and we therefore require that you appear for a transcribed interview as soon as possible.”

  Moore is asked to schedule her transcribed interview by Oct. 4, according to the letter.

  The FBI has denied wrongdoing in a statement to media outlets.

  “The FBI does not target or take adverse action against employees for exercising their First Amendment rights or for their political views; to allege otherwise is false and misleading,” an FBI spokesperson said. “The FBI is required to follow established policies and procedures, to include a thorough investigation, when suspending or revoking a security clearance.”

  “The FBI takes very seriously its responsibility to FBI employees who may make protected disclosures under the whistleblower regulations,” the spokesperson added. “FBI employees who report evidence of wrongdoing through a protected disclosure are protected from retaliation.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 20:30

• The Growing Global Reliance On Antidepressants
  The Growing Global Reliance On Antidepressants

  According to the latest OECD data, Iceland continues to have one of the highest levels of antidepressant use in the world – with an average consumption of 16 daily doses per 100 inhabitants in 2021.

  In general, the northern countries are among the biggest consumers, with Canada and Sweden also showing a ratio of over 10 doses per 100 inhabitants per day.

  

  Worth noting however is the absence of the United States from the data.

  As Statista’s Martin Armstrong shows in the infographic below, antidepressant use has become more widespread all around the world, with major increases from 2015 to 2020 or 2021 observed in Iceland, Portugal and Sweden, as well as Belgium and Greece.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The places with the lowest consumption levels of those analyzed are South Korea and Lithuania (not displayed), with a ratio of 2 to 3 daily doses per 100 people.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 20:00

• Malone: Human Cyborgs Are Just The Beginning
  Malone: Human Cyborgs Are Just The Beginning

  Authored by Robert W. Malone via Who is Robert Malone,

  Ever since I wrote the substack article on human augmentation and the UK Ministry of Defence and the German Military Complex , discussing that these two organizations advocate for human augmentation in a report entitled “Human Augmentation – The Dawn of a New Paradigm“, I have been wondering if the US government, that is to say the US Department of Defense (DoD) and the Administrative State which controls it, has developed similar plans.

  This week I did a little research starting with the key words – “human augmentation” and “DoD” and there “it” is. The “it” being the strategy playbook and battlefield field plan for creating human cyborgs…

  For those who lust for more stimulation and shaping after reading the following, this substack also relates to our June 16 substack entitled “ARPA-H, Intelligence Community within NIH”.

  

  To begin – there are various “hints” from various governmental agencies that human augmentation research is underway and has been ongoing for a number of years. For instance, this article:

  Inside the Military’s New Office for Cyborgs 2014

  DARPA’s Arati Prabhakar Tells Defense One That Cutting-Edge Biology Research Is the Future of National Security

  Defense One, April 1, 2014

  The ability to link human brains to machines, create new life forms and build Star Trek-style disease detectors will be the focus of a new Defense Department office soon.

  The new office, named the Biological Technology Office, or BTO, will serve as a clearinghouse for Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, programs into brain research, synthetic biology and epidemiology. The office will cover everything from brewing up tomorrow’s bioweapon detectors and connecting humans to computers to designing entirely new types of super-strong living materials that could form the basis of future devices. Here are the key areas in more detail.

  This author does let “the cat out of the bag”, so to speak, by his use of the word “cyborg” in the article’s title. That is the “military’s new office for cyborgs.” But the actual content of the article does little to enlighten us as to what the DoD actually has planned.

  It is getting hard to tell who is driving the bus here, the Pentagon or Paramount pictures’ script writers. Do DARPA locker rooms have pinups of Jeri Ryan? Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? Is Bruce Sterling actually a deep state operative and CIA consultant?

  

  Moving on to more recent news.

  ---

  Another fascinating title and article – this search was a little like following the bread crumbs to grannies house…

  Researchers Help DoD Consider Challenges of Human Enhancement

  DEVCOM CBC Public Affairs
  November 18th, 2019

  Peter Emanuel, Ph.D., the Army’s Senior Research Scientist for Bioengineering, sees a future 30 years from now where a U.S. Soldier can direct a swarm of drones in battle through a direct brain-to-machine connection using a neural implant. The implant also allows him to see exactly what each of those drones is seeing, then digitally integrate this information in his brain and send it as data to other machines, fellow Soldiers or his command and control element.

  This is a little more helpful.

  Note that the person being interviewed for this article is Dr. Peter Emanuel. This is important later on in this Substack. Trust me, it is a “Where’s Waldo” kind of thing.

  Also, interesting that now the DoD is using the language “human enhancement” – so much softer and gentler than “human cyborg,” don’t you think?

  ---

  This article is even a little more current. Of note – The COVIDcrisis most definitely took the spotlight off the whole “human cyborg” research agenda. Something tells me that the DoD didn’t mind that too much.

  US Space Force Chief Scientist Says Human Augmentation ‘Imperative’

  The Defense Post, May 05, 2021

  Today we’re on the brink of a new age: the age of human augmentation

   

  Human augmentation should be embraced by the West to keep up with the competition, US Space Force chief scientist Dr. Joel Mozer said during an event last week at the Airforce Research Laboratory.

  “In our business of national defense, it’s imperative that we embrace this new age, lest we fall behind our strategic competitors,” Mozer said.

  Mozer added that unprecedented developments are forthcoming in areas such as artificial intelligence, which will allow the military to craft tactics and strategies that “no human could.” Autonomous programs will eventually provide real-time advice to commanders, and multiple autonomous agents will be able to assist commanders and decision-makers in reconnaissance and fire control.

  The chief scientist further explained that human augmentation will eventually develop into technologies such as augmented reality and virtual reality — including “nerve stimulation” to enhance the simulation of physical sensations.

  “You could put [an] individual into a state of flow, where learning is optimized and retention is maximized,” Mozer said. “This individual could be shaped into somebody with very high-performing potential.”

  (I mean, who isn’t up for a little “nerve stimulation” among friends?)

  The language used is really helpful in tracking the origins of the ideas. Bruce Sterling’s classic cyberpunk novel Schismatrix is all about the conflict between Shapers and Mechanists, Shapers being the group that alters the body through genetic modification and specialized mental training. Mechanists are the group that modifies bodies through computer software and external alterations.

  Yeah, we’ve seen that movie too.

  ---

  Then we have the Big Kahuna, the report that begins to lay out the true intent of the military in all of this.

  This large, year-long assessment – commissioned by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering and conducted by the DoD Biotechnologies for Health and Human Performance Council was published at the end of 2019. It is entitled:

  

  “Cyborg Soldier 2050: Human/Machine Fusion and the Implications for the Future of the DoD”

  Subject terms: “Cyborg” and “Human/Machine Enhancement”

  That abstract of that assessment reads:

  Abstract: The Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (Alexandria, VA) established the DOD Biotechnologies for Health and Human Performance Council (BHPC) study group to continually assess research and development in biotechnology. The BHPC group assesses scientific advances for improved health and performance with potential military application; identifies corresponding risks and opportunities and ethical, legal, and social implications; and provides senior leadership with recommendations for mitigating adversarial threats and maximizing opportunities for future U.S. forces. At the direction of the BHPC Executive Committee, the BHPC study group conducted a year-long assessment entitled “Cyborg Soldier 2050: Human/Machine Fusion and the Impact for the Future of the DOD”. The primary objective of this effort was to forecast and evaluate the military implications of machines that are physically integrated with the human body to augment and enhance human performance over the next 30 years. This report summarizes this assessment and findings; identifies four potential military-use cases for new technologies in this area; and assesses their impact upon the DOD organizational structure, warfighter doctrine and tactics, and interoperability with U.S. allies and civil society.

  This analysis was made public when published, but then COVIDcrisis soon overwhelmed us all and it quickly faded from public memory.

  If you didn’t read this report back in the beginning of 2020 or if you have forgotten about it, below is the executive summary of this 50 page report (or click on the linked title above to read the whole report):

  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  A DoD Biotechnologies for Health and Human Performance Council (BHPC; Alexandria, VA) study group surveyed a wide range of current and emerging technologies relevant to assisting and augmenting human performance in many domains. The team used this information to develop a series of vignettes as case studies for discussion and analysis including feasibility; military application; and ethical, legal, and social implication (ELSI) considerations. Ultimately, the team selected four vignettes as being technically feasible by 2050 or earlier. The following vignettes are relevant to military needs and offer capabilities beyond current military systems:

  • ocular enhancements to imaging, sight, and situational awareness;
  • restoration and programmed muscular control through an optogenetic bodysuit
  • sensor web;
  • auditory enhancement for communication and protection; and
  • direct neural enhancement of the human brain for two-way data transfer.

  Although each of these technologies will offer the potential to incrementally enhance performance beyond the normal human baseline, the BHPC study group analysis suggested that the development of direct neural enhancements of the human brain for two-way data transfer would create a revolutionary advancement in future military capabilities. This technology is predicted to facilitate read/write capability between humans and machines and between humans through brain-to-brain interactions. These interactions would allow warfighters direct communication with unmanned and autonomous systems, as well as with other humans, to optimize command and control systems and operations. The potential for direct data exchange between human neural networks and microelectronic systems could revolutionize tactical warfighter communications, speed the transfer of knowledge throughout the chain of command, and ultimately dispel the “fog” of war. Direct neural enhancement of the human brain through neuro-silica interfaces could improve target acquisition and engagement and accelerate defensive and offensive systems.

  Although the control of military hardware, enhanced situational awareness, and faster data assimilation afforded by direct neural control would fundamentally alter the battlefield by the year 2050, the other three cyborg technologies are also likely to be adopted in some form by warfighters and civil society. The BHPC study group predicted that human/machine enhancement technologies will become widely available before the year 2050 and will steadily mature, largely driven by civilian demand and a robust bio-economy that is at its earliest stages of development in today’s global market. The global healthcare market will fuel human/machine enhancement technologies primarily to augment the loss of functionality from injury or disease, and defense applications will likely not drive the market in its later stages. The BHPC study group anticipated that the gradual introduction of beneficial restorative cyborg technologies will, to an extent, acclimatize the population to their use.

  The BHPC study group projected that introduction of augmented human beings into the general population, DOD active duty personnel, and near-peer competitors will accelerate in the years following 2050 and will lead to imbalances, inequalities, and inequities in established legal, security, and ethical frameworks. Each of these technologies will afford some level of performance improvement to end users, which will widen the performance gap between enhanced and unenhanced individuals and teams. The BHPC study group analyzed case studies and posed a series of questions to drive its assessment of the impact to DOD programs, policies, and operations. The following are the resulting recommendations (not listed in order of priority): (RM- I have only posted the top summaries for these recommendations, please go to the report for more detail).

  1. DOD personnel must conduct global assessments of societal awareness and perceptions of human/machine enhancement technologies.

  2. U.S. leadership should use existing and newly developed forums (e.g., NATO) to discuss impacts to interoperability with allied partners as we approach the year 2050. This will help develop policies and practices that will maximize interoperability of forces.

  3. DOD should invest in the development of dynamic legal, security, and ethical frameworks under its control that anticipate emerging technologies.

  4. Efforts should be undertaken to reverse negative cultural narratives of enhancement technologies.

  5. DOD personnel should conduct tabletop wargames and targeted threat assessments to determine the doctrine and tactics of allied and adversarial forces.

  6. The U.S. Government should support efforts to establish a whole-of-nation approach to human/machine enhancement technologies versus a whole-of-government approach.

  7. The DOD should support foundational research to validate human/machine fusion technologies before fielding them and to track the long-term safety and impact on individuals and groups.

  ---

  This rabbit hole then led me to the DARPA website – and wow! This research -to create human cyborgs, it is actually happening.

  A quick glance at the Biological Technology Office and DARPA reveals that programatic goals of building cyborg capabilities are being conducted at an astounding rate. The webpage search engine allows a search of the non-classified programs already being developed. So, one can go to this site and envision many, if not most of these technologies listed as being used for warfare. The military is developing human augmentation for military uses, not civilian. This is important to keep in mind.

  So, I spent a little time searching and webmining the more “interesting” DARPA projects. Below are just a few of the abstracts of research projects being funded by DARPA and the DoD:

  ---

  The Measuring Biological Aptitude (MBA) program aims to address the need for a more capable fighting force by helping individual warfighters identify, measure, and track personalized biomarkers related to training and peak performance for specialized roles. If the program succeeds, MBA technologies will give warfighters the ability to understand the underlying biological processes that govern their performance. Specifically, these technologies would elucidate the internal expression circuits (e.g., genetic, epigenetic, metabolomic) that shape militarily relevant cognitive, behavioral, and physical traits. New devices for continuously tracking these expression circuits could be integrated into the body to provide instantaneous user feedback, helping the warfighter to improve performance throughout training, assessment, selection, and mission execution for a given military specialty.

  ---

  DARPA’s multi-year AI Next portfolio of programs and investments seeks to develop contextual reasoning in artificial intelligence systems to improve human/machine teaming.

  The Agile Teams (A-Teams) program aims to discover, test, and demonstrate generalizable mathematical abstractions for the design of agile human-machine teams and to provide predictive insight into team performance. While human-machine teams have been the subject of considerable past work in artificial intelligence and autonomy, designing agile team architectures remains largely a trial-and-error enterprise. The A-Teams program seeks to create a systematic methodology to design teams that best use the capabilities of both humans and machines and that can achieve enhanced performance in uncertain, dynamic, and co-evolving environments. These new abstractions will be validated using experimental testbeds aimed to support reproducible evaluation of human-machine team architectures in a diverse range of problem contexts.

  ---

  The Hand Proprioception and Touch Interfaces (HAPTIX) program is pursuing key technologies to enable precision control of and sensory feedback from sensor-equipped upper-limb prosthetic devices. If successful, the resulting system would provide users near-natural control of prosthetic hands and arms via bi-directional peripheral nerve implants.

  

  The Safe Genes program supports force protection and military health and readiness by protecting Service members from accidental or intentional misuse of genome editing technologies. Additional work will leverage advances in gene editing technology to expedite development of advanced prophylactic and therapeutic treatments against gene editors. Advances within the program will ensure the United States remains at the vanguard of the broadly accessible and rapidly progressing field of genome editing.

  Safe Genes performer teams work across three primary technical focus areas to develop tools and methodologies to control, counter, and even reverse the effects of genome editing—including gene drives—in biological systems across scales. First, researchers are developing the genetic circuitry and genome editing machinery for robust, spatial, temporal, and reversible control of genome editing activity in living systems. Second, researchers are developing small molecules and molecular strategies to provide prophylactic and treatment solutions that prevent or limit genome editing activity and protect the genome integrity of organisms and populations. Third, researchers are developing “genetic remediation” strategies that eliminate unwanted engineered genes from a broad range of complex population and environmental contexts to restore systems to functional and genetic baseline states.

  Overall, the Safe Genes program is creating a layered, modular, and adaptable solution set to: protect warfighters and the homeland against intentional or accidental misuse of genome editing technologies; prevent and/or reverse unwanted genetic changes in a given biological system; and facilitate the development of safe, precise, and effective medical treatments that use gene editors.

  ---

  The Next-Generation Nonsurgical Neurotechnology (N3) program aims to develop high-performance, bi-directional brain-machine interfaces for able-bodied service members. Such interfaces would be enabling technology for diverse national security applications such as control of unmanned aerial vehicles and active cyber defense systems or teaming with computer systems to successfully multitask during complex military missions.

  Whereas the most effective, state-of-the-art neural interfaces require surgery to implant electrodes into the brain, N3 technology would not require surgery and would be man-portable, thus making the technology accessible to a far wider population of potential users. Noninvasive neurotechnologies such as the electroencephalogram and transcranial direct current stimulation already exist, but do not offer the precision, signal resolution, and portability required for advanced applications by people working in real-world settings.

  The envisioned N3 technology breaks through the limitations of existing technology by delivering an integrated device that does not require surgical implantation, but has the precision to read from and write to 16 independent channels within a 16mm3 volume of neural tissue within 50ms. Each channel is capable of specifically interacting with sub-millimeter regions of the brain with a spatial and temporal specificity that rivals existing invasive approaches. Individual devices can be combined to provide the ability to interface to multiple points in the brain at once.

  To enable future non-invasive brain-machine interfaces, N3 researchers are working to develop solutions that address challenges such as the physics of scattering and weakening of signals as they pass through skin, skull, and brain tissue, as well as designing algorithms for decoding and encoding neural signals that are represented by other modalities such as light, acoustic, or electro-magnetic energy.

  ---

  The Neural Evidence Aggregation Tool (NEAT) program aims to overcome current limitations by developing a new cognitive science tool that identifies people at risk of suicide by using preconscious brain signals rather than asking questions and waiting for consciously filtered responses. By aggregating preconscious brain signals to stimuli, NEAT would determine what a person believes to be true, false, or indeterminate about specific types of knowledge that could be used to detect signs of depression, anxiety, or suicidal ideation earlier and more reliably than ever before. If successful, NEAT will not only significantly augment behavioral health screening, but it could also serve as a new way to assess ultimate treatment efficacy, since patients will often tell their clinicians what they think the clinician wants to hear rather than how they are truly feeling. Ultimately, NEAT intends to augment current behavioral health screening programs by providing clinicians with previously unavailable information to enable earlier interventions and more reliable measures of successful treatment.

  ---

  The research activities that are being conducted by DARPA and the DoD are considerable. Even the small sampling of abstracts published above only begins to document just how large this endeavor is.

  These technologies are further along than we might think, and we deserve to know more about them. This is the future that our government is planning for us, whether we like it or not, and it is a future that is opaque. From genetic engineering to new synthetics development for neural implants, to replacing and enhancing limbs for warfare – our military is “going there.” But the truth is, some places “we” shouldn’t go. Just because they “can,” doesn’t mean they “should”.

  If you have learned anything since January 2020, I hope that you have learned to question the wisdom and insight of the insider cliques within the US Government and “Administrative State” who believe that it is acceptable to march ahead with genetic and mechanical engineering of human beings without meaningful oversight, let alone self awareness and any sense of bioethical boundaries.

  If we truly wish to have a say in these new technologies, society (which is to say “we”) must be informed. “We” have a right to be informed. That means you and me. As these technologies develop, transhumanism will become all the rage. Think about that. These new technologies will be what future generations will have to look forward to. Human cyborgs are their futures. They, that is human cyborgs, will be our children and our grandchildren.

  We are Borg. Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated. Your life as it has been is over. From this time forward, you will service us.

  Thanks, Paramount. We need more “normalizing their vision of the future” in our lives please.

  

  The military is already working on propaganda to “reverse negative cultural narratives of enhancement technologies.” So, once again – we are being played before we even know what the playing field looks like.

  Like I said before, we have all seen that movie too.

  The full scope of this program needs to be revealed to the American people. Although the executive report barely mentions gene editing technologies, the military is investing heavily in them and clearly with the intention of using them for the war fighter. The executive report barely skims the surface of the research that is currently being carried out by DARPA, and that is only one office within the Department of Defense. The public’s right to know about this research and what the final goals are is crucial. Congress must demand answers and must demand open and transparent responses. As the report rightly points out, what happens in the military will make its way into the public sphere. We have a right to know what is being planned for our future “evolution.” I don’t use that word lightly. But that is how the UK Ministry of Defence has labeled human augmentation research.

  Turns out that Silicon Valley darling and Klaus Schwab’s evil mini me Yuval Noah Harari (author of Homo Deus, which literally means “Man God”) is not so far out there in his thinking as we had thought.

  The bioethics of human augmentation are complex. The regulatory processes must be developed before the technologies come into being, not the other way around. People must envision how these technologies will be used in civilian life, in military life and as life-saving treatments. People need to decide if and which of these technologies really are for the good of society. People need to become involved now.

  That starts with education. Which begins with transparency by our government. In future Substacks, I hope that you and I will begin exploring the bioethics, the impact of these technologies, privacy issues, the targets, future visions of society and just what this all means.

  After all, what could possibly go wrong?

  Reposted from the author’s Substack

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 19:30

• Visualizing The World's Population At 8 Billion
  Visualizing The World’s Population At 8 Billion

  At some point in late 2022, the eight billionth human being will enter the world, ushering in a new milestone for humanity.

  In just 48 years, the world population has doubled in size, jumping from four to eight billion.

  Of course, as Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley and Avery Koop detail below, humans are not equally spread throughout the planet, and countries take all shapes and sizes. The visualizations in this article aim to build context on how the eight billion people are distributed around the world.

  For extended coverage of this moment and what it means to the world, you can get access to our full report and webinar by signing up to VC+, our premium newsletter.

  Now, here’s a look at each country’s population as of September 2022:

  

  Below are regional breakdowns of population.

  Africa’s Population by Country

  As of 2022, Africa’s total population stands at 1.4 billion people. Many of the countries with the fastest growth rates are located in Africa and by 2050, the population of the continent is expected to jump to 2.5 billion.

  

  Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and its largest economy. Based on current growth rates, Nigeria’s largest city, Lagos, could even emerge as the world’s top megacity by the end of the century.

  Africa has by far the lowest median age of any of the other continents.

  Asia’s Population by Country

  With 4.7 billion people in 2022, Asia is by far the world’s most populous region.

  The continent is dominated by the two massive population centers of China and India. In 2023, a big shift will occur, with India surpassing China to become the world’s most populous country. China has held top spot for centuries, but the mismatch between the two countries’ growth rates made it only a matter of time before this milestone arrived.

  

  Asia is a region of contrast when it comes to population growth. On the one end are countries like Singapore and Japan, which are actually shrinking. On the other, are Middle Eastern nations like Oman and Qatar, which have robust population growth rates of 4-5%.

  Vietnam is on the cusp of becoming the 15th country to surpass the 100 million population mark.

  Europe’s Population by Country

  Europe’s population in 2022 is 750 million people—more than twice the size of the United States.

  A century ago, Europe’s population was close to 30% of the world total. Today, that figure stands at less than 10%. This is, in part, due to population growth throughout other regions of the world.

  More importantly though, Europe’s population is contracting in a number of places—Eastern Europe in particular. Many of the countries with the slowest growth rates are located in the Balkans and former Soviet Bloc countries.

  

  Russia remains Europe’s largest country by population. Although the country’s landmass extends all the way across Asia, three-quarters of Russia’s people live on the European side of the country.

  Germany is the second largest country in Europe, followed by the UK, France, and Italy.

  Ukraine is the seventh largest population center in Europe, but it remains to be seen how the current conflict with Russia impacts the country’s long-term population prospects.

  North America’s Population by Country

  North America’s population is 602 million people as of 2022.

  The continent is dominated by the United States, which makes up more than half of the total population. America’s population is still growing modestly (by global standards), but perhaps more interesting are the internal migration patterns that are occurring. States like Texas and Florida are seeing an influx from other states.

  

  Canada has one of the highest population growth rates of major developed economies thanks to international migration.

  Mexico is currently the 10th most populous country, but will eventually be bumped from the top 10 list by fast-growing African nations.

  South America’s Population by Country

  The population of South America in 2022 is 439 million. Brazil makes up nearly half of that total.

  

  Sometime this decade, Colombia’s capital, Bogotá, will become the region’s fifth megacity (which is defined as having a population of 10 million or more). São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Buenos Aires, and Lima are South America’s current megacities.

  Oceania’s Population by Country

  The population of the Oceania region is 44 million people—just slightly higher than the population of California.

  Australia, New Zealand, and Papua New Guinea make up the lion’s share of the population of this region.

  

  Interestingly, many of the smallest countries by population can also be found in this region.

  When Will Earth’s Population Hit 9 Billion?

  The next global population milestone—nine billion—will likely be hit sometime in the 2030s.

  In fact, Earth’s population is expected to continue growing until it hits a peak at some point in the 2080s—possibly over the 10 billion mark.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 19:00

• Senate GOP Judiciary Committee To Investigate 'Excessive' FBI Raid Of Pennsylvania Pro-Life Activist’s Home
  Senate GOP Judiciary Committee To Investigate ‘Excessive’ FBI Raid Of Pennsylvania Pro-Life Activist’s Home

  Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Attorney General Merrick Garland has received a flurry of stern letters, including notice of an investigation, from Republican members of Congress in the days since the FBI’s Sept. 23 raid on the Pennsylvania home of pro-life activist Mark Houck.

  “Not only did your office turn a local dispute into a national case, but the FBI reportedly executed the search warrant in as extreme a manner as one can imagine,” a Sept. 26 letter, sent individually by Sen. Josh Hawley said.

  “The FBI admitted in a statement that as many as 20 agents were present with their guns drawn.”

  

  Houck was handcuffed in front of his wife and seven children during the 7 a.m. arrest and search of his home.

  A Sept. 27 letter from 22 Republican House and Senate members asked why the FBI was deployed for state-level assault charges were dismissed by local authorities in Philadelphia.

  “At the moment, it appears to be an extraordinary overreach for political ends,” the joint letter said. “We request an explanation for the excessive level of force used by the FBI in this case, and why the power of federal law enforcement was once again used against an American citizen in what should be a state and local matter.”

  Next, a Sept. 28, a letter to Garland and FBI Director Christopher Wray from 12 Republican senators, offers more insight into the incident and askes Garland to provide answers to five specific questions by Oct. 12, so Congress can perform an independent review of the matter.

  This letter was led by Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and signed by Senators Toomey (R-Pa.) , Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), John Kennedy (R-La.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), and Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.).

  More Details About Raid

  The FBI arrest warrant is based on an event that happened on Oct. 13, 2021.

  According to the letter, the incident involved an abortion clinic worker who allegedly shouted obscenities at Houck’s then-11-year-old son and invaded his personal space, refusing to leave him alone. Houck allegedly pushed the individual away from his son.

  Houck’s attorney for that incident, John Williamson, told the committee the Philadelphia Police declined to arrest or prosecute Houck. Despite that, the clinic worker filed a criminal complaint against Houck which was dismissed after the clinic worker failed to appear in court at least twice.

  During that case, the district attorney suggested settling the matter as a civil case instead of a criminal one, but the abortion clinic worker disagreed, the Senate letter said.

  After the complaint against Houck was dismissed on April 22, 2022, he received an April 27, 2022 letter from the Justice Department, advising that he was under investigation for potential violations of the FACE Act. The Freedom of Access to Clinic Entrances Act prohibits threatening or obstructing people entering or exiting an abortion clinic.

  Houck was likely familiar with the act as he regularly volunteered as a sidewalk counselor.

  After receiving a letter from the DOJ, Houck hired attorney Matt Heffron, a former federal prosecutor. Heffron told the committee that he left two voicemails and sent an email to Assistant U.S. Attorney Anita Eve but did not hear back.

  

  In the communications, Heffron told the DOJ that if it intended to indict Houck, he would receive the summons on Houck’s behalf and that he would appear voluntarily.

  “Given their cooperation with federal law enforcement, the family did not expect to be awakened at 7 a.m. with reportedly over 20 FBI agents surrounding their home wearing armor plated tactical vests, ballistic helmets and holding ballistic shields and long guns,” the Senate letter said.

  Once he was handcuffed, the letter says Houck asked his wife for his Catholic rosary and a sweatshirt. Then he was taken to jail.

  The committee notes that on May 20, 2022, Garland sent a memo to Justice Department employees about its use of force policy. The memo, titled “De-escalation,” said officers must be trained in de-escalation tactics designed to gain voluntary compliance from a subject before using force, and such tactics should be used if feasible and if they would not increase the danger to the officer or others.

  The actions taken by the FBI call into question whether they complied with DOJ’s use of force policy, the committee letter said.

  “The FBI must explain their justification for their actions on September 23, 2022,” the letter said.

  Five Questions

  The letter signers ask the following questions about why Houck was not allowed to self-report for his arrest and arraignment after his attorney said he was willing to do so, and whether political considerations were made to approve and execute the warrant.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 18:30

• Deepfake Bruce Willis To Return To Movie Screens
  Deepfake Bruce Willis To Return To Movie Screens

  Bruce Willis retired from acting following a diagnosis of aphasia, which causes a person to have difficulty communicating with others, but a “digital twin” of the American actor using deepfake technology will live on in future films and commercials. 

  The Telegraph reported Willis is the “first Hollywood star” to sell the rights of his digital twin in perpetuity. The actor will license his digital rights through a company called Deekcake, which specializes in artificial intelligence. 

  In a statement on Deepcake’s website, Willis said:

  “I liked the precision with which my character turned out. It’s a mini-movie in my usual action-comedy genre. For me, it is a great opportunity to go back in time.

  “With the advent of modern technology, even when I was on another continent, I was able to communicate, work and participate in the filming. It’s a very new and interesting experience, and I thank our entire team.”

  Deepcake’s website said, “We make digital twins of people you won’t tell from real.” They added this technology is very disrupting to the film industry: 

  We create digital-twins of celebrities, and the actual production process doesn’t require the physical presence of a celebrity on stage. Deepcake is only team able to make digital twin in 4K quality, On top, we can hyper-personalize your brand’s message, and jump on arena of performance marketing with A-List celebrities

  Engadget said Deepcake’s engineers created the digital double by training its AI platform to study the actor’s face in several past films, including Die Hard and Fifth Element. Then the AI grafted Willis’ face on another actor.

  Willis’ digital twin has already appeared in a commercial for a Russian telecoms company.

  There are concerns deepfake technology could be used to spread misinformation via digitally manipulated footage of people saying and doing things that never happened. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 18:00

• Our Emperor Has No Brain
  Our Emperor Has No Brain

  Authored by Bill Rice Jr via Substack,

  Biden must know he’s losing his mind

  Staying in office is clearly more important than doing the right thing and resigning…

  

  I normally feel great sympathy for any person battling the terrible disease of dementia. However, in the case of President Biden, who the whole world knows is battling this affliction, the sentiment I feel is closer to disgust.

  The reason my normal empathy is lacking is that President Biden himself must know he has this condition … and he won’t acknowledge this and do what’s best for the country and resign.

  Not only does Present Biden know this so too does his wife and children. So too does every person who works in the White House. Indeed, it now must be a 24-hour operation for White House aides to write the teleprompter scripts and stage directions they must produce for President Biden.

  The best (dark) comedy bit proving my conjecture occurred when White House aides dressed up a volunteer as the Easter Bunny and said Easter Bunny performed his assigned task of keeping our president away from reporters and Easter egg hunters.

  What motivated me to write this column is the cringe-inducing moment that happened yesterday when President Biden (going off script) asked if a deceased Congress person was in the room.

  We’ve all known people who are obviously losing their mental sharpness. I know several friends who are struggling with this condition right now. (In fact, I wonder if this “brain fog,” at least in some people, might be an adverse reaction to the Covid “vaccines.”)

  Regardless of the cause, most people going through this struggle actually admit this, either to themselves or others. When people start to suffer from this condition, they have plenty of moments where their brain functions as well as always. I’ve had people (all retired by the way) confide in me, “Bill, I’m losing my mind.”

  So I have no doubt President Biden knows what’s happening to him.

  My main point is that any person with an iota of genuine character would acknowledge what is occurring to him, and for the good of the country he’s supposed to be leading, step aside. Absent this happening, one would hope the people who love and care about this person would persuade him to do this.

  But these aren’t the type people who are “leading” our country. Instead, they are the type people who care only about their position, status and power and have no qualms whatsoever about participating in a conspiracy to cover up the truth. (An even more sinister possibility is the Powers that Be behind the curtain actually like the fact they have a puppet this easy to control.)

  The Real Scandal (the Same-Old Same-Old) …

  The conspiracy to ignore Biden’s obvious dementia is almost as large as the conspiracy to conceal the fact the “vaccines” are dangerous and ineffective. Certainly every reporter who covers the president and the White House knows his condition. But just like all the “off-limits” Covid truths, it’s taboo to mention the emperor has no brain.

  We’ve all probably known a loved one who had dementia. Knowing this, we all know this condition never improves. It gets worse, often in rapid fashion. So at some point, one assumes, one “adult in the room” will take President Biden aside and convince him he has to resign.

  When this day happens, the press is going to HAVE to report the real reason our president decided to belatedly exit political stage left  …. probably after first wandering off toward stage right, which – bad joke or not – has actually happened several times.

  I can’t wait for this day if only to see how the press spins the fact it covered up this story for  years.  (“Our President is suffering from dementia” is, in fact, a story). When this day arrives, I hope more than a few Americans ask our truth-seeking journalists one question: Why didn’t you cover this story? And then an even more important question: What other important stories have you refused to investigate and report?

  Truth be told, the Biden-has-dementia unreported story ties into all the other unreported stories. The real scandal is that America is “served” by a watchdog press corp that seemingly exists to cover-up real scandals, especially when they involve politicians and leaders on “their team.”

  The Biden dementia story also probably gives us one reason the press corps will never expose all the Covid scandals and lies. If the mainstream press did belatedly report this, they’d be admitting they covered up or ignored a massively-important story for years. Not going to happen.

  Above, I predict that President Biden will resign before the end of his term. But this is probably a naive assumption. (I also once thought that if and when the “vaccines” were proven to be ineffective at preventing infection or spread our government couldn’t possibly mandate such an experimental shot).

  My new maxim is that what shouldn’t happen … will happen (and vice versa).  So it’s very possible President Biden will still be president in January 2025. At that point, I can’t imagine the post-traumatic stress of White House handlers who got “Bernie” through not one weekend, but 208 weekends.

  Every day will include more presidential “gaffes,” gaffes which once might have provided the nation much-needed comic relief but are now no longer funny.

  It actually strikes me as cruel that so many people who ostensibly care about President Biden won’t do anything to help him. It’s also malfeasance or an abdication of some moral or ethical duty that these people allow a man who could start a nuclear war to remain in office.

  One day someone will write the White House tell-all of all tell-alls and the public will belatedly learn how severe President Biden’s cognitive condition really was. Until that day, we’ll continue to live in the surreal world depicted in the Peter Sellers’ cult classic “Being There.”

  

  In that movie, the simple-minded gardener hadn’t been elected president yet. So America did get there.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 17:30

• Election-Denier Stacey Abrams Loses Again After Judge Tosses 'Voter Suppression' Lawsuit
  Election-Denier Stacey Abrams Loses Again After Judge Tosses ‘Voter Suppression’ Lawsuit

  Stacey Abrams, the current and former Democratic candidate for Georgia governor, has tossed out a lawsuit challenging Georgia’s election system following her 2018 loss to Republican Gov. Brian Kemp.

  

  The lawsuit – filed nearly four years ago by Abrams’ PAC, Fair Fight Georgia, sought to change how the state conducts elections. Earlier this year, the judge narrowed the scope of the lawsuit by dismissing many of its original claims.

  Abrams claimed there was “misconduct, fraud or irregularities” in the voting process – a cardinal sin if you’re a conservative who similarly questions election integrity. She took legal action to stop counties from throwing out rejected provisional and absentee ballots when updated vote totals made clear that Kemp was the likely winner.

  “Although Georgia’s election system is not perfect, the challenged practices violate neither the constitution nor the [Voting Rights Amendment],” said U.S. District Judge Steven Jones in his ruling.

  The failed candidate and MSM pundit has repeatedly said that her refusal to concede to Kemp is different from election fraud claims by former President Trump, because she “never denied that I lost.”

  Yet, even the Washington Post didn’t let Abrams get away with revisionism – noting:

  Abrams at various times has said the election was “stolen” and even, in a New York Times interview, that “I won.” She suggested that election laws were “rigged” and that it was “not a free or fair election.” She also claimed that voter suppression was to blame for her loss, even though she admitted she could not “empirically” prove that. While she did acknowledged Kemp was the governor, she refused to say he was the “legitimate” governor. -WaPo

  Abrams’ clear refusal to accept her loss sparked a barrage of criticism – including insensitive memes:

  

  Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, the lead defendant in the case, hailed the ruling.

  “This ruling allows local officials to focus on the task at hand this year—running a safe, secure, and accessible election,” he tweeted. “Stolen election and voter suppression claims by Stacey Abrams were nothing but poll-tested rhetoric not supported by facts and evidence.”

  As the Epoch Times notes;

  In a statement on Friday, Abrams said despite the loss, the case “had measurable results,” including “the reinstatement of over 22,000 ballots, substantive changes to voting laws, and a platform for voters of color to demand greater equity in our state.”

  “During this suit, more than 3,000 voters shared their stories, creating an unprecedented and lasting record of voter testimony, which highlighted the suppressive effects of the Secretary of State’s actions on vulnerable voters,” she said on Twitter.

  Abrams vowed to “expand the right to vote” for minorities if she wins the gubernatorial election.

  After losing in 2018, lawyers for Abrams’s campaign and the Democrat Party of Georgia asked the court to order that provisional ballots that were rejected due to missing or incorrect information be restored. Her lawsuit also demanded that counties that had already certified vote returns correct their totals and re-certify the results.

  The complaint specifically demanded to restore the votes of 1,095 Gwinnett County voters whose absentee ballots were rejected.

  Abrams’s campaign contacted voters in Georgia asking if they experienced issues casting a vote.

  Kemp’s campaign accused Abrams of trying to steal the election by filing legal challenges and “desperately trying to create more votes for Stacey Abrams.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 17:00

• FDA Withholding Autopsy Results On People Who Died After Getting COVID-19 Vaccines
  FDA Withholding Autopsy Results On People Who Died After Getting COVID-19 Vaccines

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is refusing to release the results of autopsies conducted on people who died after getting COVID-19 vaccines.

  

  The FDA says it is barred from releasing medical files, but a drug safety advocate says that it could release the autopsies with personal information redacted.

  The refusal was issued to The Epoch Times, which submitted a Freedom of Information Act for all autopsy reported obtained by the FDA concerning any deaths reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System following COVID-19 vaccination.

  Reports are lodged with the system when a person experiences an adverse event, or a health issue, after receiving a vaccine. The FDA and other agencies are tasked with investigating the reports. Authorities request and review medical records to vet the reports, including autopsies.

  The FDA declined to release any reports, even redacted copies.

  The FDA cited federal law, which enables agencies to withhold information if the agency “reasonably foresees that disclosure would harm an interest protected by an exemption,” with the exemption being “personnel and medical files and similar files the disclosure of which would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.”

  Federal regulations also bar the release of “personnel, medical and similar files the disclosure of which constitutes a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.”

  The Epoch Times has appealed the denial, in addition to the recent denial of results of data analysis of VAERS reports.

  ‘Easily Be Redacted’

  Kim Witczak, a drug safety advocate who advises the FDA as part of the Psychopharmacologic Drugs Advisory Committee, said that the reports could be released with personal information blacked out.

  “The personal information could easily be redacted without losing the potential learnings from [the] autopsy,” Witczak told The Epoch Times via email.

  People make the choice to submit autopsy results to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, Witczak noted.

  “If someone submits their experience to VAERS they want and expect to have it investigated by the FDA. This includes autopsy reports,” she said.

  Autopsies are examinations of deceased persons performed to determine the cause of death.

  “Autopsies can be an important part of postmortem analysis and should be done especially with increased deaths following COVID-19 vaccination,” Witczak said.

  FDA Responds

  An FDA spokesperson noted that deaths following COVID-19 vaccination are rare, citing the number of reports made to VAERS.

  As of Sept. 14, 16,516 reports of death following COVID-19 vaccination have been reported. Approximately 616 million doses have been administered in the United States through September.

  The spokesperson declined to say whether the FDA would ever release the autopsy results, but pointed to a paper authored by researchers with the FDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 16:30

• Fed "Begins To Split" On Rate Hikes As "Chaotic Market Breakdown" Looms
  Fed “Begins To Split” On Rate Hikes As “Chaotic Market Breakdown” Looms

  Back in early 2018, around the time the Fed was confident it could hike its way to around 4% without an accident, and with balance sheet QT on “autopilot”, we first warned that every fed tightening cycle leads to a crisis.

  Deutsche: “Every Fed Tightening Cycle Creates A Crisis” https://t.co/Lv2CM5gmEo

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 24, 2018

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  A few months later, in late December, this was confirmed when the Fed panicked and ended its tightening cycle very prematurely. Shortly after it started restarted (NOT) QE, which was then followed by the liquidity supernova that was the covid global lockdowns, and everyone knows the rest.

  So fast forward to the start of 2022, when just as the Fed was setting off on its latest tightening campaign, we again reminded readers that “every Fed tightening cycle ends in disaster and then, much more Fed easing.”

  Remember, every Fed tightening cycle ends in disaster and then, much more Fed easing pic.twitter.com/zX7Dur8nLG

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 5, 2022

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  While this warning was (again) ignored for far too long, with global central banks hiking rates no less than 294 times since Aug 2021 (vs 1302 rate cuts since Lehman), last week the Bank of England confirmed that this time won’t be different when it quickly ended its QT and restarted QE (“temporarily” of course) to avoid a brutal collapse of the UK pension system (which for some bizarre reason, had been allowed to use margin to hedge duration exposure). And while so far the Fed has shown it is confident it is immune to the crushing consequences of the biggest ever tightening cycle and reversal in global liquidity…

  

  … recent events are starting to make some high-profile financial luminaries nervous, starting with Mohamed El-Erian, who openly agreed with us on Friday saying that an “economic accident” would precede any central bank pivot…

  Mohamed El-Erian has a cautionary word for anyone anticipating an end to interest-rate increases https://t.co/WRysTFcfg3

  — Bloomberg (@business) September 30, 2022

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  … an “accident” which Bank of America’s credit strategists warned could be imminent when they said that “credit stress approaching critical levels, now is the time to put emphasis on risk management“, and unless the Fed slows down its hiking pace, it is about to break the all-important corporate bond market, to wit:

  With credit stress approaching critical levels, now is the time to put emphasis on risk management. This means slower pace of rate hikes at immediate upcoming meetings and a potential pause subsequently, to allow the economy to fully adjust to all the extreme tightening already implemented, but still working its way through the financial system’s plumbing. Failure to do so raises the risk of credit market dysfunction, which, if occurred, would be difficult to contain and fix.

  Or maybe we are wrong and the Fed is finally becoming aware that it its actions are about to break the economy and market again. That’s what Charlie Gasparino reported yesterady when he tweeted that, according to several big investors, “federal reserve officials getting increasingly worried about “financial stability” as opposed to inflation as higher rates begin to crush bonds.” Gasparino continued that the Fed was growing “worried about possible “Lehman Moment” with a 4% FF rate as Bonds and derivatives tied to them crash, given the enormous debt issued in just the past 3 years at super low rates. A Fed watcher told me the UK intervention was not “a one off” and the same systemic risk could happen here, which might cause the Fed to pause.“

  (2/2) tied to them crash, given the enormous debt issued in just the past 3 years at super low rates. A Fed watcher told me the UK intervention was not “a one off” and the same systemic risk could happen here, which might cause the Fed to pause. More later on @FoxBusiness

  — Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) September 30, 2022

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  While that may sound like a lot of wishful thinking by the “big investors” it is becoming increasingly clear that Bank of America’s warning is certainly starting to resonate with Fed officials. As a reminder, the BofA team warned that to avoid “credit market dysfunction”, the Fed should slower “the pace of rate hikes at immediate upcoming meetings and a potential pause subsequently, to allow the economy to fully adjust to all the extreme tightening already implemented.”

  It now appears that they are doing just that, because according to Bloomberg, Federal Reserve officials “are starting to stake out different views on how fast to raise interest rates as they balance hot inflation against rising stress in financial markets.” Translation: here come the cold feet.

  As Bloomberg elaborates, “with Fed target range now at 3% to 3.25% and only a few moves from reaching their forecast peak, officials are starting to speak differently about the urgency with which they need to get there. Hawks like Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester say they must keep raising rates aggressively to win the battle against inflation even if that causes a recession.” However, Vice Chair Lael Brainard has offered a slightly softer assessment while continuing to stress the need to tighten policy. Brainard’s speech Friday — the first from Fed board leadership since officials met last week — said policy will need be restrictive for some time and avoid the risk of prematurely pulling back.

  But unlike her hawkish colleagues, “she injected a note of caution about how fast they need to go, while discussing a number of ways in which the global rate-hiking cycle could spill over on the US economy.” San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly also highlighted the cost of doing too much — as well as too little — to cool prices.

  As Bloomberg notes, their comments injected a slight variation into what has been a uniformed stream of insistence from regional Fed presidents declaring unflinching resolve to crush inflation.

  To be sure, the costs to the economy have already been telegraphed in the form of falling asset prices with the S&P 500 plunging 9.3% in September – the worst September since 2008 – as markets have now lost over $10 trillion from the all time high.

  

  But it’s the elusive economic collapse that is seen as the greenlight for any Fed pivot – just two days ago Loretta Mester went so far to say that not even a recession would stop the Fed from hiking further…

  • *MESTER SAYS RECESSION WON’T STOP FED FROM RAISING RATES

  … a view which seems dangerously naive and ignores the political fallout (for the Democratic party) that millions of lost jobs will lead to. Furthermore, while bond and stock values have cratered, for now the financial system – at least in the US – seems to be working just fine.

  But if the BofA strategy team is correct, that’s about to end with a bang. Indeed, even Bloomberg brings attention to what we reported last night, saying that “Bank of America Corp. says credit stress is at a “borderline critical level” beyond which dysfunction begins. That’s something the Fed wants to avoid because market breakdowns are difficult to control and can accelerate downturns.”

  In any case, the growing divisions among officials showed up in their forecasts released Sept. 21 that showed 8 officials estimating they would finish the year with rates in a 4% to 4.25% range while nine were a quarter point higher. Their 2024 forecast was even more bizarre and clueless.

  

  Another novel narrative to emerge in Brainard’s speech, was her warning that it will take time for the full extent of tightening to bite down broadly across the economy, another way of arguing for some patience starting now.

  “Uncertainty is currently high, and there are a range of estimates around the appropriate destination of the target range for the cycle,” she told a conference hosted at the New York Fed on financial stability. “Proceeding deliberately and in a data-dependent manner will enable us to learn how economic activity and inflation are adjusting to the cumulative tightening.”

  That contrasts sharply with Fed hawks. In fact, Mester has argued aggressively against down-shifting into more deliberative policy, as officials have done in past tightening cycles when high uncertainty lead the central bank to inch rates up a quarter-point at a time. At a time when inflation is too high, and the direction of inflation expectations is hard forecast, overshooting is better than undershooting, Mester said:

  “Some results in the literature suggest that when policymakers confront more uncertainty either in their data or in their models, they should be more cautious in acting, that is, be more inertial in their responses,” she said in a Sept. 26 speech. “Subsequent research has shown that this is not generally true.”

  “It can be better for policymakers to act more aggressively because aggressive and pre-emptive action can prevent the worst-case outcomes from actually coming about,” she added.

  Ironically, just as she read those words, the Bank of England capitulated and pivoted back to QE.

  Yet while a fissure is finally emerging within the FOMC over how fast to hike to peak rates, so far not a single official is talking about easing rapidly once they get there. Labor markets are strong with forecasters estimating another 250,000 jobs added in September, while the latest inflation report was discouraging. But expect all that to change and soon, because as Bloomberg summarizes, “What ultimately determines the pace might be just whether markets remain orderly or not.“

  This matters because while the Fed’s favorite economic indicators are backward looking and lag anywhere between 6 and 9 months, the market still anticipated key turning points and traders accordingly.

  “They have made the decision they are going to tighten more rather than less, which guarantees they will over-tighten. How are we going to see it? You are going to see it in financial conditions,” said former Fed staffer, Julia Coronado, founding partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives.

  “I don’t think they really understand” the risk of chaotic market breakdowns, she added. “When you say we are hellbent on being the fastest car on the road, that encourages a lot of positioning that is one way.”

  And speaking of chaotic market breakdowns, it is not just the credit market that is on the edge: according to another former NY Fed staffer, and current rates strategist at Bank of America, Mark Cabana who on Friday wrote a must read note (available to pro subscribers), in which he warned that Treasury “market functioning breakdown is a growing risk & may see long-end duration sell-off + curve bear steepen. The Fed is unlikely to tolerate a UST market functioning breakdown for long; if the UST market doesn’t work, broader markets likely don’t work.“

  Here, one look at the record low liquidity…

  

  … and exploding volatility in the Treasury market which was already blown above the 2020 covid crash and is on the verge of surpassing Lehman levels…

  

  … suggests that the Fed has already lost control of the Treasury market which is no longer functioning properly. How long until the Fed admits this, and how much additional pain it will tolerate before it capitulates, is a different question.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 16:00

• California Gasoline Is Now More Than Double The Price In Texas
  California Gasoline Is Now More Than Double The Price In Texas

  Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

  California leads the nation in top gasoline prices, over double Texas, Mississippi, and Louisiana…

  

  Gas prices courtesy of AAA

  According to the AAA, the National Average Gas Price on October 1, 2022 is $3.80.

  California lead the nation in price at $6.358 per gallon. That’s more than double the price paid in Texas, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Its nearly double the price paid in eight other states.

  Oregon has the second highest average price at $5.41 per gallon. That’s about 95 cents less than California pays.

  Mono County California has the dubious distinction of the highest county in the highest state at $6.937 per gallon. 

  

  Gavin Newsom’s Gas Price Premium

  Please consider Gavin Newsom’s Gas Price Premium

  Cash-strapped Americans have received relief from falling gas prices in recent weeks, but not Californians.

  The average gas price in the Golden State this week surged to $6.29 a gallon—$2.50 more than the national average—and the reasons are worth distilling since Gov. Gavin Newsom wants to export the state’s energy policies nationwide.

  Taxes add about 66 cents to the price of a gallon, about twice as much on average as other states. California’s cap-and-trade program and low-carbon fuel standard add roughly another 46 cents a gallon.

  These climate regulations are causing refineries to shut down or convert to producing biofuels that are more profitable because of rich government subsidies. California lost 12% of refining capacity between 2017 and 2021 and is set to lose another 8% by the end of next year. Yet refineries outside of the state can’t produce its supposedly greener fuel blend.

  So when California refineries experience problems, gasoline supply becomes tight and prices shoot up.

  “If you’re a (refiner) on the Gulf Coast, your gross profit on gasoline is about $6.60 (per barrel of oil). If you’re in Los Angeles it’s about $101,” Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service told the Mercury News.

  Expect California Governor Gavin Newsom to run for President in 2024. 

  If you want to pay higher prices for everything, he’s the man to root for.

  *  *  *

  Like these reports? I hope so, and if you do, please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 15:30

• Pfizer CEO Bails On EU Testimony After Report Highlights 'Secretive' Vaccine Deal
  Pfizer CEO Bails On EU Testimony After Report Highlights ‘Secretive’ Vaccine Deal

  Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has bailed on an appointment to testify before the European Parliament’s special committee, where he was expected to face tough questions over secretive vaccine deals, Politico reports.

  

  Bourla was scheduled to appear before the panel on Oct. 10, alongside key officials involved in the EUs vaccine procurement process, in order to discuss how to respond to future pandemics. According to the report, “Other pharmaceutical executives have addressed the committee, including the CEO of Moderna and senior officials from AstraZeneca and Sanofi.”

  Bourla? Not so much.

  The committee’s chair, Belgian MEP Kathleen Van Brempt, told POLITICO she “deeply regrets” the decision taken by Pfizer.

  After a visit to BioNTech’s headquarters last week, Van Brempt had said in a written statement that she looked forward to discussions “with other CEOs” including “Mr. Albert Bourla, the CEO of Pfizer” on October 10. -Politico

  In early September, an audit repirt into the EU’s vaccine procurement strategy raised questions over Bourla’s relationship with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen before they struck a multibillion-euro vaccine deal.

  The report, by the European Court of Auditors, found that von der Leyen had been directly involved in preliminary negotiations for the EU’s biggest vaccine contract, for up to 1.8 billion doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine, which was concluded in May 2021. This was a departure from the negotiating procedure followed with other contracts, where a joint negotiating team made up of officials from the Commission and member countries conducted exploratory talks. -Politico

  In April, von der Leyen admitted that she had been texting with Bourla for a month straight while they were negotiating the massive contract. Two months later, the texts disappeared, triggering accusations of maladministration by the EU’s ombudsman, Emily O’Reilly,” Reuters reported at the time.

  

  Bourla and von der Leyen’s cozy relationship was noted last year by the NYT, which Bourla told they had “developed a deep trust, because we got into deep discussions.”

  “She knew details about the variants, she knew details about everything. So that made the discussion, way more engaged.”

  And now Bourla won’t have to answer questions about it.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 15:00

• U.S. Pension Funds Could Face Their Own "Lehman Moment"
  U.S. Pension Funds Could Face Their Own “Lehman Moment”

  Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

  Last night I had the pleasure of speaking with Jason Burack from Wall Street for Main Street to offer up my updated thoughts on the Federal Reserve, the economy and the state of the world in general.

  The first thing we talked about was current Fed policy, which I told Jason I thought was a case of too much, too late. I made the argument that the Fed is, as it always does, overshooting its mark, and doing so at the wrong time.

  This, as I have written several times, is why I believe the market is going to be in for a serious crash at some point within the next several months. I reiterated my stance to him that the economy and stock market have not yet truly digested 3% interest rates and, when they do, there will be hell to pay.

  “They’re so nervous about the inflation issue, they have said ‘come hell or high water, we’re going to 4%’. I believe the consequences of 300bps of hikes in nine months have not even begun to be felt yet,” I said.

  “I think we’re going to have a serious moment of real panic, probably an order of magnitude bigger than the one they just had in England,” I said. “They’re going to try and ram this thing through and get us to 4% by the end of the year. The consequences will be devastating. It’s going to be a wild ride.”

  I also talked to Jason about why I think equity markets wind up 30% to 40% lower from here easily, assuming the Fed holds its course. If the Fed does decide to pivot, it would be a different story – but for now, with the Fed holding course, I think it is inevitable that our markets run into a brick wall, relatively soon.

  I laid out my most recent game theory on the Fed’s current options – including whether it will pivot or not, and how it will react to the Bank of England restarting quantitative easing – in my article I wrote on Wednesday of this week: Did The Global Pivot Back To QE Just Begin?

  One of the things that we talked about that I haven’t written about is the trouble that U.S. pension funds could be in.

  The Bank of England intervention this week was a result of pension funds potentially having a “Lehman Moment”. Reports noted that pension plans overseas were hastily selling bonds to try and meet margin calls, a scenario that I am certain we are not far off from here in the U.S.:

  Pension schemes had been selling gilts to meet emergency collateral calls or reduce exposure, pensions advisers said.

  “There are schemes running out of cash at the moment,” one pensions consultant said before the BoE intervention.

  From FT, here’s what scared the BoE straight:

  “At some point this morning I was worried this was the beginning of the end,” said a senior London-based banker, adding that at one point on Wednesday morning there were no buyers of long-dated UK gilts. “It was not quite a Lehman moment. But it got close.”

  I told Jason yesterday that I don’t think the United States is far off. All I have been reading over the last five years is how pension funds here (1) can’t meet their targets despite the market ripping and (2) were taking on leverage, managed by their obviously unqualified CIOs, to try and deploy the world’s worst carry trade and play catch-up/generate more yield.

  “I think what they did in Chicago was once they failed to meet their targets – first off, several funds have turned over their CIOs – they then issued a bond or something ridiculous to try and put on this carry trade where they’re going to pay 50bps on the bond and try and generate an extra 100bps of return. Some asinine, basically borrowing money to try and invest it,” I told Jason. “You have nonsense like that all throughout the [pension fund] system.”

  “If we can’t meet our obligations with pension funds when the market is screaming higher, what are we going to do now? I guarantee you there are pension funds right now already in big, big, big trouble and we just haven’t seen the news yet,” I continued. “We don’t know the extent of it yet.” 

  The fact that these funds were unable to post the returns that they needed during arguably the most euphoric bull market in history is extremely concerning. When conditions get worse for poor managers like these, like they are now, the capital destruction could be devastating.

  

  From there, we went on to talk about how government policy has enabled terrible monetary policy and how it could play a role in upcoming elections.

  We also talked about the state of Covid lockdowns, the Canadian government finally surrendering its long-coveted travel restrictions and the state of politics globally.

  “I think we’re going to see similar conservative populist movements throughout the world [like the one we just saw in Italy],” I told Jason. 

  I made the argument to Jason that the political poles (not polls) had reversed – in essence, the party that was once liberal has now become fascist, and the party that was once conservative has now become liberal.

  I talked to him about how the disintegration of US cities, combined with the economic destruction and the authoritarian lockdowns put forth by the current administration are all going to be tough to ignore for voters during the upcoming midterm elections. I further explained to him that I wasn’t surprised about the results of Italy’s latest election and predicted that many other countries globally would start to soon follow suit.

  My full interview with Jason lasted a little bit over an hour and you can listen to it here:

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 10/01/2022 – 14:30