• Sperry: Lies, Damned Lies, And The Jan. 6 Committee
  Sperry: Lies, Damned Lies, And The Jan. 6 Committee

  Authored by Paul Sperry via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The Select Committee to Investigate Jan. 6 has adjourned for a well-deserved summer break. Misleading the public is exhausting work.

  

  A careful review of the official transcripts of its eight long hearings shows the committee repeatedly made connections that weren’t there, took events and quotes out of context, exaggerated the violence of the Capitol rioters, and omitted key exculpatory evidence otherwise absolving former President Donald Trump of guilt. While in some cases, it lied by omission, in others, it lied outright. It also made a number of unsubstantiated charges based on the secondhand accounts—hearsay testimony—of a young witness with serious credibility problems.

  These weren’t off-the-cuff remarks. Panelists didn’t misspeak. Their statements were tightly scripted and loaded into teleprompters, which they read verbatim.

  In other words, the committee deliberately chummed out disinformation to millions of viewers of not just cable TV, but also the Big Three TV networks—ABC, CBS, and NBC—which agreed to preempt regular daytime and even primetime programming to air the Democratic-run hearings. And because Democrats refused to allow dissenting voices on the panel or any cross-examination of witnesses, viewers had no reference points to understand how they, along with the two Trump-hating Republicans they allowed on the committee, shaded the truth.

  This charade of an honest investigation appears to have had the desired effect. Polls show the Jan. 6 hearings hurt Trump, who plans to run again, with independents. Unaffiliated voters have grown more likely to blame Trump for the Capitol riot and to show support for Democrats in the midterms, according to a new Morning Consult/Politico survey.

  With the November elections fast approaching, Democrats plan to hold another round of hearings next month, hoping voters pay even closer attention. With that in mind, it’s important to examine the false claims and distortions they no doubt will repeat. They are legion. Here’s the fact-checking the viewing public—and the electorate—thus far has been denied.

  CLAIM: While committee Chair Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) excoriated Trump for not calling off the Capitol rioters earlier, he claimed they were “savagely beating and killing law enforcement officers,” according to the transcript of his remarks from the prime-time July 21 hearing, carried live by the networks.

  FACT: No police officer was killed during the riot.

  CLAIM: During the same hearing, committee member Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) faulted Trump for his “glaring silence” about the “tragic death of Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick, who succumbed to his injuries” suffered during the riot.

  FACT: The D.C. medical examiner ruled Sicknick died of “natural causes,” not injuries, well after the riot. Luria seemed to perpetuate false rumors started by The New York Times that Sicknick was struck with a fire extinguisher, a fable debunked by both the coroner and the Sicknick family.

  CLAIM: Thompson asserted Trump “summoned” a mob that was “heavily armed and angry.”

  FACT: Not a single gun was recovered in the riot. For that matter, the only gun used during the four-hour melee was fired by a Capitol police officer, who killed an unarmed rioter, Ashli Babbitt—whose name was never mentioned in any of the hearings. Despite airing endless footage of rioters breaching the Capitol and fighting police, the committee omitted footage of USCP Lt. Michael Byrd shooting Babbitt from behind a doorway without warning, which was the most violent incident that occurred that day.

  CLAIM: The committee put a former far-right extremist on as a witness to testify that rioters built “a gallows” to allegedly hang then-Vice President Mike Pence.

  FACT:  The witness, Jason Van Tatenhove, wasn’t at the Capitol that day. He had no insider knowledge about the purpose of the flimsy wooden structure erected across from the Capitol. In any case, it was a mock gallows, not a functional one. Even the New York Times recently acknowledged it “was too small to be used.”

  CLAIM: Committee Vice Chair Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) proclaimed in the hearing curtain-raiser—also held in primetime and broadcast live by all three networks—that the panel had evidence Trump said Pence “deserves” to be hanged, a chilling claim if true. “Aware of the rioters’ chants to hang Mike Pence,” she asserted, “the president responded with this sentiment: ‘Maybe our supporters have the right idea,’ Mike Pence quote ‘deserves it.’”

  FACT: Her “evidence” turned out to be a secondhand retelling by witness Cassidy Hutchinson, a White House assistant fresh out of college who overheard a paraphrasing of what Trump may have thought about the chants, not a direct Trump quote as Cheney implied. Hutchinson later testified Trump said, “something to the effect of,” Pence “deserves it.”

  CLAIM: Hutchinson also swore she wrote a note dictated by then-White House chief of staff Mark Meadows suggesting a more forceful White House response to the riot.

  FACT: Former White House lawyer Eric Herschmann insisted that he actually wrote the note, not Hutchinson, adding a serious chink in her credibility as the committee’s star witness. “The handwritten note that Cassidy Hutchinson testified was written by her was in fact written by Eric Herschmann on January 6, 2021,” said a spokesperson for Herschmann, who noted that Herschmann told the committee that in his deposition. The panel never informed the public that Hutchinson’s claim was disputed.

  CLAIM: Based on Hutchinson’s testimony, the committee also claimed that former White House counsel Pat Cipollone said Trump’s plan to march to the Capitol would cause Trump officials to be “charged with every crime imaginable.”

  FACT: Cipollone didn’t corroborate the claim in his sworn deposition before the committee.

  CLAIM: The committee relied on another second-hand account by Hutchinson to broadcast to the world the alleged bombshell that Trump tried to physically commandeer his Secret Service limo to the Capitol. “When the president got in ‘The Beast’ … he thought they were going up to the Capitol,” Hutchinson testified, relaying what she’d heard from a security official who had heard it from another source. But when Trump was told he had to go back to the White House, she continued, Trump got “irate” and said “something to the effect of ‘I’m the [expletive] president, take me to the Capitol now,’” and proceeded to “grab at the steering wheel.” She claimed he even “lunged” at a Secret Service agent inside the vehicle.

  FACT: Trump rode in a different motorcade vehicle than “The Beast” that day (an SUV, not the famous Cadillac limo), and several Secret Service agents have denied any physical altercation took place, casting further doubt on Hutchinson’s reliability as a key witness for the panel (records show she kept working for Trump in his post-presidential office for nine weeks after he left the White House, even though she claimed to be “disgusted” by what happened on Jan. 6, which she said was based on “a lie” peddled by Trump that the election was stolen). After pushback from the Secret Service, the committee leaked to CNN that a D.C. police officer “has corroborated” Hutchinson’s testimony. But when DCPD Sgt. Mark Robinson testified in the final hearing, he failed to corroborate her tale of Trump grabbing the steering wheel or lunging at a member of his security detail. “The only description I received was that the president was upset and was adamant about going to the Capitol and there was a heated discussion about that,” Robinson said.

  CLAIM: Throughout the hearings, the committee cited Trump’s speech at the Ellipse as the spark that ignited the riot. “There can be no doubt that [Trump] commanded a mob, a mob he knew was heavily armed, violent, and angry, to march on the Capitol to try to stop the peaceful transfer of power,” Thompson said in the last hearing. Emphasized Luria: “Donald Trump summoned a violent mob and promised to lead that mob to the Capitol.”

  FACT: While Trump did urge supporters to “walk” with him down to the Capitol after the rally, he specifically asked them to do so “peacefully.” The committee left that key exculpatory phrase out of the hearings. It never aired the footage or transcript of him saying, “I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.” If it had, it would have ruined the carefully crafted narrative that Trump incited violence. The omission was a critical deception.

  CLAIM: In the opening hearing, Cheney read out loud a tweet Trump sent during the riot in which he said, “These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long.” She claimed Trump was justifying more violence.

  FACT: But Cheney cut off the next line where Trump called for “peace” and told supporters to leave the Capitol. “Go home with love & in peace,” the rest of the tweet said. Cheney blinded millions of viewers watching to the full picture.

  CLAIM: Cheney, who faces a Trump-endorsed challenger in her Aug. 16 primary race, kicked off the hearing with a bold charge: “President Trump summoned a violent mob and directed them illegally to march on the United States Capitol.” She vowed to show “evidence” to back it up. Thompson said they would prove that Trump was “at the center” of a “seditious conspiracy.”

  FACT: Not only did they fail to deliver any hard evidence that Trump ordered rioters to attack the Capitol as part of a conspiracy, they also began to contradict themselves as the hearings progressed. Thompson later said Trump merely “spurred” the mob and “energized” extremists, which is quite different from directing them. In an unintended revelation, one of their witnesses presented a timeline that suggested the instigators of the breaches of the Capitol had already headed to the Capitol before Trump spoke at the Ellipse. Documentarian Nick Quested testified the Proud Boys marched to the Capitol at 10:30 a.m., which meant Trump couldn’t possibly have incited them. “I was confused to a certain extent why we were walking away from the President’s speech,” said Quested, who was embedded with the Proud Boys.

  Despite taking more than 1,000 depositions and subpoenaing more than 140,000 documents, the committee never found a smoking gun proving Trump was involved in a top-down organization of the riot. There was no coordination or conspiracy, which tracks with what the Biden Justice Department has found. Of the 874 criminal cases prosecutors have brought against Trump supporters at the Jan. 6 riot, none of them names Trump as an unindicted co-conspirator.

  But don’t take my word for it.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 23:25

• Defense Experts Game Out US-China War Over Taiwan; Dalio Warns Escalations 'Very Dangerous'
  Defense Experts Game Out US-China War Over Taiwan; Dalio Warns Escalations ‘Very Dangerous’

  A group of American defense experts operating out of a 5th floor suite in Washington DC have been mapping out a hypothetical war between the United States and China over Taiwan.

  

  “The results are showing that under most — though not all — scenarios, Taiwan can repel an invasion,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which has been simulating various war scenarios. “However, the cost will be very high to the Taiwanese infrastructure and economy and to US forces in the Pacific.“

  In sessions that will run through September, retired US generals and Navy officers and former Pentagon officials hunch like chess players over tabletops along with analysts from the CSIS think tank. They move forces depicted as blue and red boxes and small wooden squares over maps of the Western Pacific and Taiwan. The results will be released to the public in December. –Bloomberg

  The base assumption is that China invades Taiwan to force unification, which the US responds to with its military. Another assumption (that’s ‘far from certain’) is that Japan would grant ‘expanded rights’ to use US bases on its territory – but wouldn’t intervene directly unless Japanese land is attacked.

  

  Nuclear weapons are not part of the scenarios, and the weapons used in the simulation are the most likely to be deployed based on current capabilities of the nations involved.

  News of the war game simulations come as China began test-firing missiles in recent days following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) visit to Taiwan.So far, 18 of 22 rounds of the simulation to date have resulted in Chinese missiles sinking a large part of the US and Japanese surface fleet, and would destroy “hundreds of aircraft on the ground,” according to Cancian, a former White House defense budget analyst and retired US Marine.

  “However, allied air and naval counterattacks hammer the exposed Chinese amphibious and surface fleet, eventually sinking about 150 ships,” he added.

  “The reason for the high US losses is that the United States cannot conduct a systematic campaign to take down Chinese defenses before moving in close,” Cancian continued. “The United States must send forces to attack the Chinese fleet, especially the amphibious ships, before establishing air or maritime superiority.”

  “To get a sense of the scale of the losses, in our last game iteration, the United States lost over 900 fighter/attack aircraft in a four-week conflict. That’s about half the Navy and Air Force inventory.“

  

  According to the simulations, the Chinese missile force “is devastating while the inventory lasts,” which makes US subs and long-range-capable bombers “particularly important.” Also key, is Taiwan’s defense capabilities, because its forces would be primarily responsible for countering Chinese landings from the South.

  “The success or failure of the ground war depends entirely on the Taiwanese forces,” said Cancian. “In all game iterations so far, the Chinese could establish a beachhead but in most circumstances cannot expand it. The attrition of their amphibious fleet limits the forces they can deploy and sustain. In a few instances, the Chinese were able to hold part of the island but not conquer the entire island.”

  “For the Taiwanese, anti-ship missiles are important, surface ships and aircraft less so,” because surface ships “have a hard time surviving as long as the Chinese have long-range missiles available.”

  There have been no estimates so far on lives lost, or the sweeping economic impact of such a conflict between the US and China.

  As Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio notes, “The US-China Tit-For-Tat Escalations Are Very Dangerous.”

  Unfortunately, what is happening now between the US and China over Taiwan is following the classic path to war laid out in my book “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order.” If events continue to follow this path, this conflict will have a much larger global impact than the Russia-Ukraine war because it is between the world’s leading superpowers that are economically much larger and much more intertwined.  

  For reasons previously explained, the Russia-Ukraine war is minor by comparison, though the two conflicts are related and the Russia-Ukraine war, like all wars, is having terrible consequences. For example, consider that China’s share of world trade is over seven times larger than Russia’s [1] and constitutes about 19% of all American manufactured goods imports. [2] Imagine if importing goods from China and doing business with China became the same as they are with Russia now. Imagine what the supply chain and economic impacts on the world would be. Imagine what sanctions on China would be like for the world. Supply chains would collapse, economic activity would dive, and inflation would soar. And that’s just what would happen to economies due to economic warfare which would pale in comparison to the impact that military warfare, which we are obviously dangerously close to, would have.

  For reasons explained in my book, the situation that now exists between the United States and China is very similar to that which existed between powers immediately prior to World Wars I and II and many other immediate prewar periods. The chart below shows my US-China conflict gauge since 2000. As you can see, the readings for conflict between the US and China are the highest ever.

  

  This index is composed of many indicators such as changes in military spending, personnel, and deployment; sentiment of each country’s people about the other country; media attention given to the conflict, etc. The combination of military spending and attitudes toward each rival country has been particularly indicative. The chart below shows the shares of global military spending for the US and China which significantly understates China’s military spending because much government spending that supports the military is not included as direct military spending. Also, American military spending covers the world while Chinese military spending is more focused in the region. Knowledgeable parties tell me that China has significant military superiority around Taiwan.

  

  The chart below plots recent Gallop poll data and shows that 80% of Americans now have an unfavorable view of China—which is now on par with how Americans view Russia (and is up meaningfully over the past few years).  

  

  To put the existing level of conflict between China and the US in perspective, the table below compares the current US-China conflict gauge reading to past readings of other great conflicts. As shown, the current reading for the US and China is nearly 1.2 standard deviations above the average, which is a reading in the high end of the range of major conflicts. While this conveys a high level and risk of conflict, it should not be misinterpreted to mean that a worsening is to come. Sometimes, these moments of heightened conflict are followed by a stepping back from war. For example, the period leading into the Cuban Missile Crisis had a relatively high reading of 0.9, but wise heads prevailed, so a potential disaster was avoided.

  

  There are many more measures that convey the changing picture that are explained in my book which I don’t have the space to show you here, but will continue to plot along with the historical analogies I outlined in the book.   I will use them to paint as accurate a picture as I can about what’s happening and put it into an historical context. The dot plot will speak for itself as to which path we are on.

  As for what’s now happening, the Chinese are responding to Nancy Pelosi’s visit by cutting off most relations and demonstrating that they can militarily control the area around Taiwan, which implies that China could shut Taiwan off from the rest of the world. Imagine that and its implications, e.g., imagine if semiconductor chips couldn’t get out of Taiwan. China is also displaying its military power and it is crossing previously uncrossed lines of demarcation, thus closing in on Taiwan. [7]

  Pelosi’s visit was perceived by China as a move in favor of Taiwan’s independence rather than toward one China with Taiwan part of China, and it is essentially challenging the US to stop it from doing what it is doing. The question is whether the US will respond with another escalation that will prompt another Chinese response, in the classic tit-for-tat acceleration into war, or if the sides will step back.

  To gain a picture of the past and the forces that are driving the evolution of the US and China toward war (i.e. the Big Cycle) I suggest that you review Chapter 13 “US-China Relations and Wars.” I suggest that you pay particular attention to my explanation of previous Taiwan Straits crises and why I said I would worry if we had a “Fourth Taiwan Crisis” which is the crisis that we are now having. To understand what is happening you must understand these things.  

  As I summarized on page 455 of that Chapter in the section “The Risk of Unnecessary War:” Stupid wars often happen as a result of a tit-for-tat escalation process in which responding to even small actions of an adversary is more important than being perceived as weak, especially when those on both sides don’t really understand the motivations of those on the other side. History shows us that this is especially a problem for declining empires, which tend to fight more than is logical because any retreat is seen as a defeat. Take the issue of Taiwan. Even though the US fighting to defend Taiwan would seem to be illogical, not fighting a Chinese attack on Taiwan might be perceived as being a big loss of stature and power over other countries that won’t support the US if it doesn’t fight and win for its allies. Additionally, such defeats can make leaders look weak to their own people, which can cost them the political support they need to remain in power. And, of course, miscalculations due to misunderstandings when conflicts are transpiring quickly are dangerous. All these dynamics create strong pulls toward wars accelerating even though such mutually destructive wars are so much worse than cooperating and competing in more peaceful ways. There is also risk of untruthful, emotional rhetoric taking hold in both the US and China, creating an atmosphere for escalation.

  While the power of the forces behind the Big Cycle explained in “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order” can be overwhelming, people still have choices that will affect the outcomes. This conflict is still a low-grade military conflict (which I call a Category 2 military conflict) because 1) it has not yet produced an exchange of bloodshed of people from the two major sides i.e., Chinese and/or Americans and 2) it is not taking place on either country’s homeland (though the Chinese would say Taiwan is part of their homeland even though it’s not part of mainland China). If either of these were to change, that would be the next big step up toward unimaginable all-out war which I still consider improbable.

  A good thing is that sensible people on both sides are scared of war even though they don’t want to look like they are. A bad thing is that some people on both sides want to intensify the fight because to not do so in the face of the provocation wound be perceived as a sign of weakness. That dynamic of upping the ante to avoid looking like one is backing down has throughout history been shown to be a very dangerous dynamic. We have seen many historic cases which have led to terrible wars because neither side wanted to back down and only few in which sensible people stepped back from the brink when faced with the prospect of unacceptable destruction. 

  My hope is that China’s escalation will not lead to the next US escalation which will lead to the next Chinese escalation which, despite the strong desire of sensible people on both sides to avoid war, would lead to a war. But hope is not a strategy, so I will try to be as realistic as possible, navigate accordingly, and communicate well with you.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 23:05

• Couple Leave City, Transition To Homestead Life In The Mountains
  Couple Leave City, Transition To Homestead Life In The Mountains

  Authored by Louise Chambers via The Epoch Times,

  After receiving a cancer diagnosis, a couple from a city in Southern California gained a new perspective on life and began to question their lifestyle. They then made the huge decision to move to the mountains of North Carolina for a more intentional life. Six years on, they are growing their own food, homeschooling their daughter, and living their dream life.

  

  Jason and Lorraine Contreras, and their daughter, Penelope, currently have a 14-acre homestead in western North Carolina. They have learned to grow the majority of their own food, raise their own meat, improve the land and soil they live on, and thrive without electronic distractions.

  Transition to Homesteading Lifestyle

  “Twelve years ago I was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s lymphoma,” Jason told The Epoch Times. “After chemotherapy, losing my hair, and a whole year of feeling completely sick from all the treatments, my wife and I began to question everything, from the food we brought into our home and put into our bodies to the products we used on our skin.”

  During this time, Lorraine, who worked in the fashion industry, loved the idea of climbing the corporate ladder and was driven by ambition.

  “I loved clothes and they defined me,” she said.

  However, after Jason’s cancer diagnosis and visiting doctors for various appointments, she realized a few things. She found she wanted to be with Jason at every appointment as well as when he was home sleeping off nausea from chemotherapy. She also wanted to cook him the most nourishing meals, yet had no idea where to begin. She also thought of having children after all, but questioned whether it was too late.

  “I looked at our life and we were so far from that,” she said.

  

  She felt as helpless as Jason in the face of his cancer diagnosis, so the couple took back control where they could—in their choices of what to eat, how to work, where to live, and how to spend their leisure time.

  They first made a small garden, tuned out the noise of the city by getting rid of their TV, started cooking meals from scratch, and daydreamed of leaving the California city life behind to own a bigger piece of land. One day, Jason quit his office job of 16 years, and the couple started to make their dream a reality.

  “No more days spent sitting under artificial lights and hunched over a computer,” he reflected; “I was free to dig my hands in the soil and get dirty!

  “Slowly but surely, we made the transition into this homesteading lifestyle.”

  In 2016, the couple sold the majority of their belongings and left California when Penelope was just 4 years old. In North Carolina, they had no friends or family nearby. Unaware of whether it would all work out, their only plan was to “figure it out.”

  

  According to Jason, their only goal at that time was, “to grow food, build a homestead together as a family, and to never go back to an office job.”

  They initially started out on a 1.5-acre plot. Jason created a YouTube channel, SowTheLand, to chronicle the family’s journey as novice homesteaders.

  A 14-Acre Plot

  After almost six years at their first homestead, and many lessons learned, the family had the skills and confidence to graduate to a much larger plot. They now have a 14-acre plot and share the land with two steers, a pair of breeding kunekune pigs, meat chickens, egg-laying chickens, two geese, and eight turkeys.

  “We found an amazing fixer-upper horse property,” said Jason. “The pastures have been over-grazed and soil is beaten down over the years from too many horses; some run-down barns need a lot of attention.

  

  “We grow most of our own food. We would love to get to a point where we grow almost all of it. We have a small community of like-minded farmers around us where we can barter for things that we cannot produce on our own.

  “Our goal is to have a fruit orchard; we have started one, but we need to build a fence to keep the deer out and continue planting.”

  

  In the new homestead, the family have also gained access to a creek and a private well, and masses of space to expand their gardens and animal husbandry. They plan on turning the old stables into a barn for hosting educational workshops, to teach others how to plant and harvest farm-to-table food, and raise and butcher animals.

  “We are absolutely thrilled to have this old farm,” said Jason, “and we are already hard at work, rolling up our sleeves, turning it into a working homestead and, day by day, healing the soil.

  “I guess that’s why we chose the name ‘Sow The Land; we are restoring the land, making it better than we found it, and growing the healthiest food from it.”

  

  Jason, who has been in remission since completing six months of chemotherapy is tasked with continual building, gardening projects, animal husbandry, troubleshooting on the homestead, and creating social media content for SowTheLand, including filming and editing their videos for the channel.

  He said that he feels more active and is in better shape today than ever before.

  Another major change that came with homesteading was the decision to homeschool Penelope. Luckily, Jason and Lorraine have the support of their local community, which comprises other homesteading families and homeschooled children.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 22:45

• Something Just Doesn’t Add Up In Chinese Trade Data
  Something Just Doesn’t Add Up In Chinese Trade Data

  By Ye Xie, Bloomberg markets live commentator and reporter

  An unusual discrepancy has showed up in two sets of trade data in China. Depending on which official sources you use, China’s trade surplus, could either be overstated or under-reported by a staggering $166 billion over the past year.

  China watchers cannot fully explain the mystery. It’s as if Chinese residents bought a lot of stuff overseas, and instead of shipping the items home, they were kept abroad for some reason.  

  China’s exports have been surprisingly resilient, despite a slowing global economy and Covid disruptions. On Monday, General Administration of Customs data showed China’s exports increased 18% in July from a year earlier. In contrast, imports grew only 2.3%, reflecting weak domestic demand.

  The result is China’s trade surplus keeps swelling, which has underpinned the yuan by offsetting capital outflows. The surplus over the past year amounted to a record $864 billion, more than double the level at the end of 2019.

  But when comparing the Customs data with that from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), a different picture emerges. The SAFE data shows the surplus is growing at a much slower pace — about 20% less than the customs figure. 

  

  The two data sets used to track each other closely. SAFE typically reports fewer imports, thus a higher surplus, because it excludes costs, insurance and freight from the value of goods imported, in line with the international standard practice, Adam Wolfe, an economist at Absolute Strategy Research, noted.

  The other adjustments that SAFE does include:

  • It only records transactions that involve a change of ownership;
  • It adjusts for returned items;
  • It adds goods bought and resold abroad that don’t cross China’s border, but result in income for a Chinese entity — a practice known  as “merchanting.”

  The relationship between the two data sets has flipped since 2021, as SAFE reported higher imports, resulting in a smaller surplus than the Customs data.

  It’s particularly odd because it happened at a time when shipping costs skyrocketed. When SAFE removes freight and insurance costs, it would have resulted in even lower, not higher, imports.

  Taken at face value, the discrepancy suggests that somebody in China “bought” lots of goods from abroad, but they have never arrived in China. These transactions would be recorded by SAFE as imports, but not at the Customs office.

  Craig Botham at Pantheon Macroeconomics, suspects that Covid-19 may be playing a role here. Foreign firms unable to manufacture in factories elsewhere during the pandemic might have transferred materials to China for assembly, a transaction excluded by SAFE.

  Could Chinese buyers overstate their foreign purchases to SAFE, which regulates the capital account, so they can move money out of the country? The cross-border transactions show there was widespread overpaying for imports in 2014-2015, during a period of intense capital flight, but not at the moment, Wolfe pointed out.

  

  The bottom line is that there aren’t many good explanations. As Alex Etra, a senior strategist at Exante Data, said, there’s “no smoking gun” to suggest something fishy is going on.

  It’s another mysterious puzzle waiting to be solved.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 22:28

• Elon Musk Quietly Dumps A Massive $6.9 Billion In Tesla Shares
  Elon Musk Quietly Dumps A Massive $6.9 Billion In Tesla Shares

  Remember way back in April 2013 when Elon Musk vowed at the Tesla annual shareholders meeting that “just as my money was the first in, it will be the last out.” No? Good, because fast forwarding to Tuesday night, we learned that Musk just took 6.9 billion steps to be among the first to get the hell out of Dodge.

  Forgot to say one thing at Tesla annual shareholders meeting: just as my money was the first in, it will be the last out.

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 5, 2013

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  According to four Form 4 filings filed late on Tuesday night, Elon Musk sold a total of 7.92 billion (or $6.9 billion) of shares in Tesla, the first time he has sold stock in the carmaker since April, when he was allegedly selling TSLA shares to help him “fund” the Twitter acquisition… for which he dropped his bid shortly after, almost as if the TWTR deal was just a pretext.

   According to the new filings, Musk dumped the shares on Aug. 5, the day when TSLA stocks tumbled some 8%.

  

  The sale took place shortly after Musk’s latest taunt to shorts, who it appears were right – judging by Musk’s own sale – but were squeezed nonetheless.

  Heatwave in Shortville 🥵

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 30, 2022

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  With the latest sale, Musk has now sold around $32 billion worth of TSLA stock in the past 10 months.  

  Tesla’s stock slumped late last year as Musk offloaded more than $16 billion worth of shares, his first sales in more than five years. The disposals started in November after Musk polled Twitter users on whether he should trim his stake.

  The shares have risen about 35% from its recent lows in May. Some have noted how every time Musk dumps a boatload of stock, an unexplained gamma squeeze kicks in just before the sale, affording Musk a far higher sale price.

  Crazy how $TSLA gamma squeezes 30-50% everytime right before he dumps billions…

  Luckiest guy ever.

  — Stephen Geiger (@Stephen_Geiger) August 10, 2022

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  It is surely also a coincidence, that just as Musk was about to dump his shares, a massive burst of retail buying emerged in recent weeks, which it is safe to say, spilled over into meme stonks and forced the latest WallStreetBets short squeeze. As a reminder, last Wednesday we wrote that “Explosion In Retail Buying Revealed As Source Of Latest Tesla Stock Surge.” Perhaps some regulator will finally look into this.

  

  Of course, there is a less sinister explanation: Musk and Twitter have reached a settlement agreement, and Musk was quietly prefunding the balance of his purchase commitments, which means that Twitter employees are about to have a very unpleasant night. Then again, if not one can add this latest Tesla mega-dump to the long list of bizarre events Musk will have to explain in court in a few months…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 22:11

• Google Search Hit With Outage On Monday, Hours After Iowa Campus Electrical Incident
  Google Search Hit With Outage On Monday, Hours After Iowa Campus Electrical Incident

  Tens of thousands of users were affected by a Google search outage that struck on Monday this week. 

  At about 9PM Eastern Time, reports started hitting DownDetector that the site had stopped working for some users. In addition to the U.S., problems were also recorded in Taiwan and Japan, Bloomberg wrote in a follow up report.

  More than 40,000 reports of service interruption came through on DownDetector, the report says. 

  It is also worth noting is that there were scattered reports of an “electrical incident” at a Google facility in Iowa Monday. Three people reportedly went to the hospital as a result of the incident, the report says. It isn’t clear whether the two incidents are related.

  

  Three electricians were critically injured, according to SF Gate:

  Three electricians were critically injured and transported to a local hospital after an “electrical incident” at a Google data center in Council Bluffs, Iowa, according to the Council Bluffs Police Department and Google.

  The incident occurred at 11:59 a.m. local time on Monday, the Council Bluffs Police Department told SFGATE. Three electricians were working on a substation close to the data center buildings when an arc flash (an electric explosion) occurred, causing significant burns to all three electricians.

  The outage was almost 10 hours later, so it is difficult to draw a straight line between the two incidents. 

  Google said on Monday: “We are aware of an electrical incident that took place today at Google’s data center in Council Bluffs, Iowa, injuring three people onsite who are now being treated. The health and safety of all workers is our absolute top priority, and we are working closely with partners and local authorities to thoroughly investigate the situation and provide assistance as needed.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 22:05

• Previewing The "Historic" July CPI Report, And Why A Miss Will Make Powell's Life Extremely Hard
  Previewing The “Historic” July CPI Report, And Why A Miss Will Make Powell’s Life Extremely Hard

  As Bloomberg’s Sebastian Boyd writes, it’s hard to overstate the importance of Wednesday’s US inflation report to a market that’s split between two different views of the economy, and the Fed’s plans for dealing with it.

  The report is critical because – among other things – two weeks ago, at his July 27 press conference, Powell said the Fed would slow the pace of hikes at some point… but he also made clear that the central bank thinks the labor market remains strong and that is offsetting the slowdown in demand. Friday’s nonfarms payrolls data bore that out in a stunning way, with the US economy creating far more jobs than any of the 71 economists in Bloomberg’s survey expected (granted, the Household survey painted an entirely different picture but we’ll cross that bridge in time). For all intents and purposes, the market saw the number as super hawkish, and while Fed funds were pricing in a 36% chance of a 75-bp September hike before payrolls, they’re now looking at a 74% probability.

  There were more pre-CPI signals in the bond market on Tuesday, when the stellar three-year Treasury bond auction proved that if there are any jitters about another big upside surprise, the bond market doesn’t see it. As Bloomberg’s Alyce Andres pointed out, the short end is acutely sensitive to expectations for both rates and inflation, so were traders worried about a surprise on Wednesday, the sale could have struggled. In the event, the auction went fine, and some traders were seen setting themselves up for a downside inflation surprise. Finally, as we noted earlier, the curve bear flattened even more – as it has been doing since the nonfarm payrolls data on Friday – and the 2s10s curve is set a new multi-decade low. That suggests that investors are bracing for more hawkishness from the Fed, as inflation remains stubborn and the labor-market tight, “and that the the market thinks the space for then avoiding a recession is getting narrower and narrower.”

  

  So what does the market expect?

  Consensus expects that headline CPI will rise just 0.2% in July, far below the previous month’s 1.3% increase, largely on the back of a sharp drop in energy prices. Core CPI is expected to rise by a brisker 0.5%, still down from last month’s 0.7%.

  The YoY headline is expected to print 8.7%, also down from the 9.1% last month, while Core CPI will rise 6.1% compared to a year ago, an increase vs the 5.9% Y/Y rise in June. Goldman economists are looking for a slightly higher headline YoY CPI of +8.83% and an in-line Core print of +6.09% (vs +6.1% consensus and +5.9% prior). On a monthly basis, Goldman expects a 0.48% increase in July core CPI, a hair below consensus expectations for a 0.5%. The bank also forecasts a 0.24% increase in headline CPI in July, a bit above consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase (and as noted above, corresponding to a 0.3% decline in the year-over-year rate to 8.83%).

  

  In its CPI preview note (available to pro subs along with a bunch of other pre-CPI reports) Goldman highlights three component-level trends for the July report.

  • First, the bank expects shelter inflation to remain elevated as the official shelter index continues to catch up to the price levels implied by alternative web-based measures of rent inflation (something we were warning about over a year ago).
    • Specifically, Goldman expects OER to increase by 0.6%, as the recent price increases for natural gas and other utilities which the BLS imputes and removes from OER likely lead it to increase by less than rent in July. Going forward, shelter inflation is expected to slow to a 0.4-0.5% monthly pace by year-end and peak at around 7% year-over-year later this year.

  

  • Second, Goldman expects the energy component of the CPI to decline by 3.2%, reflecting a sharp drop in gasoline prices in July.
    • Futures prices point to further declines ahead, suggesting that headline inflation will likely continue to moderate in the near term.
  • Third, the decline in fuel prices has likely contributed to lower airfares, and the bank expects the airfares component to decline by 7% in this week’s report.

  

  Elsewhere in the report, Goldman expects continued increases in auto prices (new +1.0%, used +0.5%, parts +0.8%). Additionally, retailers have noted that they anticipate cutting prices in coming months in order to reduce inventory stocks from elevated levels, and apparel prices are expected to shrink by 0.8%.

  Looking ahead, Goldman expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.4-0.5% range for the next couple months before edging down to 0.3-0.4% by December 2022. The bank forecasts year-over-year core CPI inflation of 6.1% in December 2022, 2.7% in December 2023, and 2.8% in December 2024, with the bank’s forecast reflecting a negative swing in health insurance prices and a larger slowdown in goods than in services inflation next year.

  

  That said, even assuming sequential inflation growth slows to a trickle, the chart below from BofA shows how long it will take for inflation to normalize on an annual basis.

  

  In terms of the market reaction, Goldman’s John Flood writes today that “a softer than expected reading (anything better than prior of 9.1%) likely “stops in” more buyers. I think the print will have to be quite HOT (headline well above prior reading of 9.1%) to apply any real pressure to the tape, because sellers are hard to come by. I think this dynamic essentially rings true for remainder of August and then we can reevaluate post labor day. As painful as it is any headline reading that falls btwn soft and very hot (really anything lower than 9.5%?) keeps current trend of choppy and higher going (as corporates and quants continue to methodically buy).“

  In other words, while a CPI miss is likely – especially at the headline level – and it will push risk assets even higher, this is the worst possible outcome for the Fed which will be left with only red-hot jobs as the only “real time data” preventing it from pivoting, and why the next time we get a big NFP miss, stocks will hit escape velocity.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 21:49

• The Chickens Of 'Woke' Are Coming Home To Roost On Business Heads
  The Chickens Of ‘Woke’ Are Coming Home To Roost On Business Heads

  Authored by Scott Shepard via RealClearMarkets.com,

  The chickens of wokeness are coming home to roost on the heads of the business leaders who have done so much to unleash this plague upon us.

  

  There’s a better, and less cliché-ridden, way to frame that…

  Have you seen A Man For All Seasons? If you haven’t, you should. If you have, you’ll remember one of the single greatest scenes in all of film. Sir Thomas More – the one Henry VIII had beheaded because he wouldn’t agree that Henry could head an independent English church – is visited in his home by Richard Rich, who asks him for a job. More roundly refuses, after which Rich slinks away, having made it clear to all that he intends to get revenge on More for this rejection. More’s family can’t believe that he had allowed Rich to leave. They break into horrified cries, demanding that More, as Chancellor of the Exchequer, arrest Rich. More refuses, explaining that he can’t arrest even the devil until he’s broken the law.

  His son-in-law, William Roper, then bellows: “So, now you give the Devil the benefit of law!”

  More: “Yes! What would you do? Cut a great road through the law to get after the Devil?”

  Roper: “Yes, I’d cut down every law in England to do that!”

  More: “Oh? And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned ‘round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat? This country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man’s laws, not God’s! And if you cut them down, and you’re just the man to do it, do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then? Yes, I’d give the Devil benefit of law for my own safety’ sake!”

  The woke leaders of America’s businesses would have done well to screen that wonderful movie some years ago, and to have thought deeply. And maybe also to have read any of the many, many versions of Doctor Faustus, one of the upshots of which is “when you sign a contract with the devil, make sure to read the fine print, and to expect trickery.”

  This, of course, is exactly what these leaders did when they signed themselves and their businesses up in support of the leftwing suite of policy prescriptions that goes by the shorthand “woke.” They were convinced, or convinced themselves, or pretended to believe, that signing up with the hard left constituted a fight against the devil – a fight against inequality and racism and meanness and climate change, and in favor of harmony and happiness and puppy dogs and joy, and always summertime but never August.

  In fact, of course, they were signing up with the devil (metaphorically, of course, faux factcheckers. Put away your po-faces.). As Thomas More knew, and all of the Doctor Fausti learned (but Doctor Fauci still resolutely refuses to admit), the devil gets you to do all his dirty work for him, and then he turns ‘round on you. Then woe betide.

  Thus has it proceeded. The fight against inequality became the fight for equity-based discrimination in order to achieve an enervatingly socialist equality of outcome. Reasonable concern about climate change became economy-destroying climate-catastrophism. Worries about high levels of imprisonment became city-destroying legalization of crime and criminalization of police. And once all that had happened, with these business leaders’ enthusiastic support, the devil turned ‘round on them. Consider some recent examples.

  Perhaps most trenchantly, Bloomberg of all places recently reported that many ESG funds have been forced to close for poor performance and rapidly eroding investor interest. This is hardly surprising. Many ESG funds have been and are fee-generating frauds; they built their supposed alpha simply by stocking up on tech and underweighting energy when tech was soaring and energy was stuck. When those trends reversed, these funds sunk, and their higher fees became wholly unjustifiable.

  With regard to the real ESG funds – the ones that really do invest in companies that actually implement the chief E purpose of political-schedule decarbonization and the S goal of equity-based discrimination: companies that cut themselves off from reliable energy while embracing race and sex discrimination to achieve socialism are never going to be more profitable in the long run than sane companies. These ESG funds require for their survival investors who are sufficiently committed to those woke goals that they’re willing to take relative losses to support companies that embrace them. In flush times, there may be quite a few of those. In increasingly tight times, there are far fewer, as ESG-fund managers are discovering. The obviously absurd magic formulae that they intoned have brought forth monsters – and the tough times have come because of government policies that also follow the woke line. The devil’s turned ‘round on them.

  Then there are the anecdotal and illustrative developments, such as at Starbucks and the NCAA. Both of these businesses have eaten the whole woke sandwich. Starbucks famously thought that its blue haired baristas were the right people to teach America about race – meaning being avatar instructors of the Kendi-style notions that all white people, and only white people, are immutably racist, and that everything connected with whiteness is evil. The NCAA similarly has happily set about demolishing the very college women’s sports that it is bound to support and protect, allowing young men whose bodies were formed by years of testosterone to declare themselves women and then to romp through the women’s sports – destroying the competitiveness and the dreams of collegiate glory of the genuine women over whom they towered and against whom they so unfairly competed.

  Neither Starbucks not the NCAA appear to have read the fine print in their contracts with the devil: if you sign up for woke, you’ll disarm yourselves from fighting any of the woke program – just as Sir Thomas warned when Roper demanded he cut down all the laws in England. When Starbucks’ repeat and current CEO Howard Schultz adopted the leftwing line about racism, he thereby signed up too for the corollary position that racial inequality in outcome in arrests and jailing were per se racist, regardless of the behaviors of specific people, so that if non-whites were being arrested and jailed at higher rates than whites, policing would have to be abolished. Likewise he failed to realize that his grandstanding about equity included an endorsement of equity-based equality of outcome, and so empowered unionization efforts, including specifically at Starbucks.

  Now, when Starbucks finds itself shutting an initial 16 stores (with more surely to come) in cities like San Francisco and Portland that followed most closely the prescriptions indicated by Schultz’s evangelizing for the devil of woke, he responds with indignation, bemoaning that those cities have become unsafe and that unionization is bad in the long run for both Starbucks and its employees. He’s right, but he of all people will not be heard to mouth these complaints. He was himself a chief lumberjack cutting down the laws, basic economic knowledge and profound underlying moral premises that protected him and Starbucks from what’s befallen them. The devil’s turned ‘round on him. Whom can he ask for help, or to mourn? And note that even at this late remove, Schultz still can’t admit the obvious: that it was the very principles that he so preeningly embraced that have led to all of these problems. After all, once you sell your soul to the devil, he’s hardly going to let you denounce him.

  The case is the same with the NCAA. It too went all in on equity and on the other provisions of modern leftist confusion, including allowing people who were born and constructed as men to dominate women’s sports, rolling back 40 years of progress. How then could it effectively complain when the United States Supreme Court declared that student athletes should be able to earn some money for their efforts, instead of doing all their hard work for the benefit of wealthy schools and a massively profitable NCAA itself? That is hardly an equitable outcome – especially considering the relative racial makeup of the parties concerned. And just as with Starbucks, the NCAA now faces a unionization crisis, as Penn State’s football team leads what will likely be a broad, if perhaps uneven, movement toward student-athlete unionization. That’s just equity at work, right, NCAA? Devil’s turned right ‘round, folks. (Or, since it’s the NCAA, surely folx.)

  Then consider the raft of federal and state legislative proposals that seek to stop the mass resale of stolen goods. The same companies that were happy to sign onto equity proposals that make cities unsafe for their citizens want a special carveout – an additional deal with the devil – to stop their establishments from being burgled while leaving their customers to get robbed on the way home. It’s a special kind of evil – and stupid – that, when the devil turns ‘round on you, you gleefully link arms with him, continuing to do his bidding as long as he leaves you alone for just a little bit longer.

  Additionally, and to keep today’s theme alive, there are the ever-growing pile of stories about companies that are reaping what they have sown not in terms of their own stupid policies being visited against them, but rather in the sense of, as it were, “the wages of sin.” Consider how much, for instance, Warner Bros. Discovery is paying for its and DC Comics’ embrace of woke: the most recent movie in that franchise is so bad that, despite having spent at least $70 million ($90?) on it already, Warner’s new boss David Zaslav is sending it to a cave in the desert southwest somewhere to lie forever unseen. The official story is that it’s so unwatchably bad that it can’t be fixed, but that’s true of quite a lot of modern fare that gets released. The likelier story appears to be that the movie was unfixably the final move toward making the DC Comics movie realm wholly women-powered, with dirty evil toxic men like Batman and Superman killed off forever. Vast piles of recent and not-so-recent market data suggest that the teenaged boys who are the only plausible mass audience for superhero movies (well, them and all the guys who can’t quite figure out adulting) don’t much care to watch endless female-empowerment screeds that treat guys as evil or irrelevant. Go figure.

  Finally, just because it’s so funny: the women of The View invited Governor Ron DeSantis to join them on their program. That’s weird, because within the recent memory even of Joy Behar they have, amongst other things, called him “a negligent, homicidal sociopath,” a “fascist and a bigot,” and “anti-black” and “anti-gay.” He naturally declined this offer to be spat upon, but not because they lied about him viciously. Rather, he refused because no one cares about ABC (or CNN or MSNBC or the rest) anymore. They’ve destroyed their credibility, their respectability, and any conceivable reason to go on their programs. Good job, ladies.

  It’s been a bad month for the Ropers of this world, now they’ve voluntarily flattened all their defenses, coast to coast. Maybe its time for them to start planting some trees and reseeding the forests that used to protect them from the devil. They can’t do that, though, until they acknowledge who the devil is and how they have helped him so much in recent years. Otherwise, he’s just going to keep knocking them flat.

  *  *  *

  Scott Shepard is a fellow at the National Center for Public Policy Research and Director of its Free Enterprise Project.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 21:25

• 10 Foot Tall SpaceX "Space Junk" Crashes To Earth, Lands On Australian Sheep Farm
  10 Foot Tall SpaceX “Space Junk” Crashes To Earth, Lands On Australian Sheep Farm

  It was just another boring old day on an Australian Sheep Farm…

  That is, until three “large chunks of space debris” that are being attributed to SpaceX, crashed landed from the sky, according to the Australian Space Agency. 

  The “junk” was found embedded in farmlands in New South Wales, according to Live Science. It came from “part of a SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft that likely reentered the Earth’s atmosphere on July 9”, according to the report. 

  On the day of the re-entry, locals said they saw a “blazing light arc” and heard a sonic boom. 

  Among the debris was a 10 foot tall spike that had been charred black from re-entry. It was found by sheep farmer Mick Miners on his farm south of Jindabyne. His neighbor, Jock Wallace, also discovered pieces nearby on his farm. 

  

  Wallace was told by Australian authorities to contact NASA. “I’m a farmer from Dalgety, what am I going to say to NASA?” he said to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation News. 

  The Crew Dragon had been launched in November 2020 with the plan of taking four NASA astronauts on a round trip to the International Space Station. 

  The debris is “from the unpressurized trunk of the Crew Dragon,” according to experts. 

  The trunk was stocked with solar panels and “was intentionally jettisoned upon reentry to make the Crew Dragon’s return to Earth easier”. However, the report notes that “engineers planned for it to hit the ocean, not a farm.”

  “I think it’s a concern it’s just fallen out of the sky. If it landed on your house it would make a hell of a mess,” Wallace concluded. 

  It marks the largest recorded piece of space junk to land in Australia since 1979.  

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 21:05

• 4 Guatemalans Indicted For Human Smuggling, Dumping Body In Texas
  4 Guatemalans Indicted For Human Smuggling, Dumping Body In Texas

  Authored by Charlotte Cuthbertson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Four Guatemalan nationals have been charged with conspiring with others to smuggle “large numbers” of illegal aliens into the United States, including one woman who died during the journey and was dumped on the side of a road.

  

  Felipe Diego Alonzo, 38; Nesly Norberto Martinez Gomez, 37; Lopez Mateo Mateo, 42; and Juan Gutierrez Castro, 45, were apprehended in Guatemala on Aug. 2 and extradited to the United States at the request of U.S. officials, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ). Fifteen other individuals were also arrested during the multi-city sweep.

  “As a result of the search warrants, law enforcement recovered 10 high valued motor vehicles, firearms, and cash,” the DOJ stated.

  On top of the “prolific smuggling” of illegal aliens from Guatemala through Mexico and into the United States, the defendants are being charged in relation to a woman’s death.

  In early April, the defendants allegedly agreed to smuggle a Guatemalan woman from Quiche, Guatemala, to the United States for almost $10,000, according to the indictment.

  The woman died after spending several days trekking through the desert near Odessa, Texas, according to court documents. Odessa is about 200 miles from the U.S.–Mexico border.

  The defendants, along with their co-conspirators, “arranged for the body of [the woman] to be moved from an alien stash house and dumped on the side of a roadway” in Crane County, Texas, the indictment alleges.

  The defendants then tried to pay off the woman’s family, according to the DOJ.

  The charges against the four include conspiracy to bring an alien to the United States resulting in death, bringing an alien to the United States resulting in death, conspiracy to bring an alien to the United States for financial gain, and conspiracy to encourage and induce an alien to come to the United States for financial gain.

  “Transnational criminal organizations continue to recklessly endanger the lives of individuals they smuggle for their own financial gain with no regard for human life,” said Customs and Border Protection Deputy Commissioner Troy Miller in a statement.

  Recently, several men were charged after the deaths of 53 illegal aliens in the back of a sweltering semi-trailer near San Antonio.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 20:45

• Worried About Curve Inversion? There's More To Come
  Worried About Curve Inversion? There’s More To Come

  by Ven Ram, cross-aset strategist for Bloomberg’s Markets Live

  The inversion in a key segment of the US yield curve may deepen to levels not seen since the 1980s as competing concerns about higher policy rates and their economic impact play out in the markets.

  Ten-year Treasuries now offer a yield of around 2.78%, compared with about 3.28% on two-year maturities, leading to a differential of minus 50 basis points. That spread may invert further to minus 65 basis points, and beyond, in the coming months as front-end bonds sell off more than longer maturities.

  

  Employers stunned economists by adding more than half a million jobs in July. That print is likely to add to the Fed’s conviction about the economy’s resilience. Chair Jerome Powell remarked before the report that the “strong labor market makes us question the GDP data” that pointed to a recession.

  Should that momentum in the economy continue to hold and inflation not abate as much as the markets are factoring in, the Fed is likely to take its policy rate into restrictive territory. Given that we haven’t even reached the neutral rate yet, a restrictive rate would be somewhere north of 3.50%.

  The Fed’s dot plot in June showed the median year-end rate at 3.40% and at 3.80% for 2023. St. Louis President James Bullard, an influential voice on the Fed, has argued for front-loading the rate hikes to this year, meaning we could end 2022 at 3.75%-4% if inflation proves sticky.

  Should that be the case, two-year yields could go well beyond this year’s peak of around 3.45%.

  However, any increase in 10-year yields is likely to lag those at the front end, spurring a deeper inversion in the yield curve. While the economy has proved resilient so far, market skepticism will remain, acting to temper any increase in long-dated yields.

  Indeed, the 10-year maturity is now trading at a premium of almost 68 basis points over its implied value of 3.4792% based on realized inflation and the Fed’s benchmark rate. While the 10-year yield may climb in sympathy with a higher Fed funds rate, I expect the security to still trade at a premium.

  Those factors will mean that the spread between 10- and two-year yields may become the most inverted since the early 1980s, when then Chair Paul Volcker was wrestling with mammoth inflation by raising rates successively.

  While a search for duration would have proved to be a failure earlier in the current cycle, now may be the time to get set for a meaningful quest.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 20:25

• Judge Who Signed Mar-A-Lago Search Warrant Exposed As Associate of Jeffrey Epstein
  Judge Who Signed Mar-A-Lago Search Warrant Exposed As Associate of Jeffrey Epstein

  By BlueApples

  If there were any question as to whether or not the FBI raid on Donald Trump’s Mar-A-Lago residence was rife with corruption, details from the search warrant authorizing it should clear any doubt. Although information is sparse given that the warrant remains under seal, one piece of information that couldn’t be kept confidential sheds new light on the motives behind the raid.

  The judge who signed off on the search warrant was Bruce E. Reinhart, United States Magistrate Judge for the Southern District of Florida. Before assuming his office as a federal judge, Reinhart was an attorney who represented associates of Jeffrey Epstein implicated in his human trafficking conspiracy, namely; Sarah Kellen and Nadia Marcinkova. 

  Kellen worked for Epstein as his scheduler for years and was referenced in deposition testimony given during the defamation case between Virginia Guiffre and Ghislaine Maxwell. Marcinkova was a more prominent member of Epstein’s entourage as she served as one of the pilots of his infamous aircraft dubbed “The Lolita Express.”

  Reinhart assumed his role as Kellen and Marcinkova’s attorney once he set up a criminal defense firm after resigning from his post as a senior prosecutor in the Southern District of Florida as it was negotiating a non-prosecution agreement for Epstein. Reinhart would officially begin his legal representation of Epstein’s accomplices within days of leaving his position as a senior prosecutor within the district.

  

  While Reinhart’s association with Epstein hadn’t resurfaced until his was thrust back into the spotlight as the Federal Magistrate who authorized the search warrant for the Mar-A-Lago raid, it was a matter of considerable controversy in the wake of his resignation in 2007. In 2013, the US Attorneys states that “while Bruce E. Reinhart was an assistant U.S. attorney, he learned confidential, non-public information about the Epstein matter.’’ in response to his claims against any impropriety. Reinhart’s rejection of any wrongdoing on his part was made in a 2011 affidavit as part of a civil court case filed by two of Epstein’s victims in 2008 which named Former Secretary of Labor Alexander Acosta along with two other federal prosecutors, one of whom was Reinhart.

  Reinhart’s representation of Marcinkova best conveys his ties to the human trafficking enterprise that Epstein and his network assembled. Marcinkova is presently the Founder and CEO of Aviloop. The company’s website states that it harnesses Marcinkova’s experience as a pilot for the consulting firm’s focus on companies based in the aviation industry. Marketing, social media services, and event management are listed among the services which are offered. As is an explicit mission to “help employers diversify their crews.”

  While the Aviloop website is rather innocuous, other than the fact that it is operated by an associate of Jeffrey Epstein’s, its YouTube Channel portrays a different image. The YouTube channel is sparse, containing only 4 videos, each of which were posted 8 years ago from the date of this article and only has 34 subscribers. Yet, the content of the videos is suspicious even with the low volume made available. Each video is a brief, 40 second or so monologue from a young woman dressed in a suggestive, pilot-themed outfit. Their sultry voices attempt to entice potential customers into a membership with Aviloop whether they are looking for deals on pilot training courses, aviation services or simply want to “see more girls like me.” Oddly enough, memberships with Aviloop are completely free according to the promotional video.

  No direct contact information for Aviloop is disclosed on the company’s website. However, the website of Aviloop’s sister company, Aviatri, listed a phone number. However, upon this being brought to light in an investigative report of mine which Marcinkova and Mark Esptein became aware of, the phone number was removed from the site.

  Within days the Aviatri site was listed as “under construction,” though a simple redirect to the URL of its homepage showed it was still operational. When this was brought to Marcinkova’s attention by me, she removed the site all but entirely, only leaving its placeholder page in its place. The physical address mentioned on the Aviloop website belonged to a building managed by Ossa Properties, a property management company owned by Jeffrey’s brother Mark Epstein

  

  The automated voicemail for Aviatri states that callers have reached actually reached Aviloop. Delineating between the 2 businesses is difficult as Aviatri does not appear to be incorporated with the New York Department of State’s Division of Corporations like Aviloop is. Aviatri extends the mission of Aviloop to aspiring female pilots directly by acting as a recruiting agency for them. The agency’s website states that it offers online courses, flight training, and financing to aspiring female pilots.
   
  Marcinkova’s other business, Global Girl, LLC, had its incorporation with the New York Department of State’s Division of Corporations completed in 2005, years preceding Aviloop’s establishment at a time when Marcinkova was in the midst of her association with Epstein. Unlike Aviloop, Global Girl does not appear to currently maintain a website. Its social media channels have all been deactivated as well. A vague reference to Global Girl is mentioned on Marcinkova’s personal website before listing herself as a pilot, fashion model, and the CEO of Aviloop. As such, it is unclear if the company is still operating or even what the basis of its operations entail. The business entity’s filing with the New York Department of State  was sent to Adam B. Kaufman & Associates, PPLC at 585 Stewart Avenue in Garden City, NY. Kaufman & Associated  has not responded to a message regarding an inquiry into the businesses current operational status or a means by which to contact Ms. Marcinkova.

  What is known about Marcinkova is how deeply enmeshed she was with Jeffrey Epstein, Ghislaine Maxwell, and the crimes they committed. Consequently, Reinhart was likely well-aware of those crimes given his representation of Marcinkova and Kellen on top of his position as a federal prosecutor in the district which tendered Epstein with a non-prosecution agreement. While his decision to leave the office could have been construed as a rejection of its decision to sweep Epstein’s crimes under the rug, his position as Marcinkova’s attorney shows that he was likely more concerned with maximizing his benefit in committing the cover up.

  If Reinhart’s association with the likes of Marcinkova and Kellen reveals anything, it is that the inner machinations of Jeffrey Epstein’s human trafficking network live on, even if he does not. The permutations of insulating those involved with Epstein have resulted in the very people who enabled, if not outright participated in his crimes, be rewarded for their efforts by being placed in the highest echelons of federal government. The exposure of that fact should shake those institutions to their core. This is a daunting reality that those who would be brought down with the ship know all too well. The mere premise of that foreboding future is enough to explain why the Southern District of Florida has removed any contact information for Reinhart entirely from his website – an act which serves as a tacit admission of the blatant corruption behind the search warrant he signed off on.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 20:00

• EU Submits Final Text of Iran Deal: "Five Minutes From Finish Line"
  EU Submits Final Text of Iran Deal: “Five Minutes From Finish Line”

  European Union efforts to salvage a rebooted Iran nuclear deal appear to have produced a “final text” which is described as tackling all remaining issues. The Vienna talks are now being declared definitively over. 

  “After 16 months of torturous on-and-off indirect negotiations to restore the deal, the European Union’s foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell suggested there was no more room for negotiation on the draft now on the table,” the Associated Press writes of the fresh announcement.

  

  Yet a final decision for sign-off and implementation of a restored JCPOA remains in both Washington and Tehran’s hands, with the Islamic Republic long blaming the United States for stalling and seeking to sabotage a finalized deal. 

  “What can be negotiated has been negotiated, and it’s now in a final text,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced on Twitter. “However, behind every technical issue and every paragraph lies a political decision that needs to be taken in the capitals.”

  Borrell has in the last weeks been traveling between capitals, including Tehran, in hopes of salvaging negotiations and a finalized draft deal. For Iran, the chief priority remains getting an inquiry on uranium particles found at undisclosed sites resolved in its favor. 

  The Wall Street Journal detailed at the start of this week, “However, Iran came into last week’s talks insisting that the U.N. atomic agency’s three-year probe into undeclared nuclear material found in the country must be closed down if the nuclear deal is revived.”

  The report noted further that “Several Western diplomats said Sunday that Tehran has doubled down on this condition in the past few days of talks and there is no agreement on the issue.” Israel has been the most outspoken country, though not a signatory to the JCPOA or part of the Vienna process, charging that Tehran is pursing a nuclear bomb. Israeli leaders have long been lobbying the Biden administration to reject a restored JCPOA, seeing it as Iranian cover for a hidden nuclear weapons program, a charge which Iran’s leaders have denied.

  Meanwhile, Russian envoy Mikhail Ulyanov briefed reporters, saying optimistically that “we stand five minutes or five seconds from the finish line.” But it will be interesting to see where the White House officially stands during press briefings and follow-up statements in the coming days.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 19:45

• "The FBI Is Corrupt": Mark Levin Goes Nuclear Over Trump Raid, Slams 'Silent' GOP Leadership
  “The FBI Is Corrupt”: Mark Levin Goes Nuclear Over Trump Raid, Slams ‘Silent’ GOP Leadership

  Fox News host Mark Levin went nuclear on Monday night in response to the FBI raid on Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence on Monday, reportedly in connection with documents that the former president took home after leaving office in 2021.

  

  “This was well orchestrated, so this has been going on for weeks,” Levin told host Sean Hannity. “Now, you keep asking your guests, what’s the justification? There is no justification. What’s he going to say tomorrow, the attorney general? Here’s my guess: ‘We’ve been negotiating with Trump and his lawyers since February when we found out they had this information. We were getting nowhere, and then we know or we heard that some documents were being destroyed.”

  Levin also noted that photos shared by New York Times columnist Maggie Haberman purporting to show official documents with Trump’s handwriting on them in White House toilets.

  (Except… it isn’t Trump’s handwriting)

  Is there a Toiletgate stenographer out there who’d like to explain this?

  h/t @Titania977 pic.twitter.com/EjJwgz2Gho

  — Hans Mahncke (@HansMahncke) August 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js“There is no justification for sending 30 friggin’ FBI agents to the former president’s compound in Mar-a-Lago in early morning and conducting themselves this way or in any other cases in which they’ve done exactly the same thing,” Levin continued, adding “The FBI is corrupt.“

  Levin called it “the worst attack on this republic in modern history,” before slamming GOP leadership. (h/t Mediaite)

  “This is the worst attack on this republic in modern history. Period,” he said. “And it’s not just an attack on Donald Trump. It’s an attack on everybody who supports him. It’s an attack on anybody who dares to raise serious questions about Washington, D.C., and the establishment in both parties. I haven’t heard a damn thing from the Republican leadership in the Senate! Have you? Not one of those guys has put out a statement. Because they’re weak. That’s why.”

  The Great One Mark Levin goes SCORCHED EARTH over FBI Raid of Trump: “This is the worst attack on this Republic in Modern History” 🔥 pic.twitter.com/aR0bd2UfGg

  — Benny Johnson 🍊 (@bennyjohnson) August 9, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 19:33

• The Guardian Accuses Republicans Of 'Weaponising' Trump-Raid
  The Guardian Accuses Republicans Of ‘Weaponising’ Trump-Raid

  Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

  Following the news of the FBI raiding President Trump’s home, The Guardian suggested that REPUBLICANS are ‘weaponising’ the situation to make unfounded claims of a deep state and a politicised justice department.

  

  The leftist newspaper’s headline reads Republicans dust off familiar playbook to weaponise Mar-a-Lago FBI search, with a sub headline of GOP accusations of ‘deep state’ and politicization of justice department likely to foment an intense backlash.

  

  So the FBI, under Democrat guidance, break into a former President’s home and ransack through his belongings and it’s somehow the GOP that is responsible for the ‘weaponising’.

  Remarkable.

  The article quotes several Democrats waxing about how ‘justice is being served’, and then claims that Republicans are engaging in “florid rhetoric” that will “enflame America’s political divisions” and encourage Trump supporters to further point to a “deep state conspiracy”.

  Armed federal agents in the dead of night cracking open a former President’s safe in an attempt to steal documents. Nothing Deep Statey or conspiracy like about that is there.

  The piece concludes by quoting ‘never Trumper’ Joe Walsh who tweeted “The Republican Party has abandoned the rule of law. Just listen to them tonight. They’re at war with the rule of law.”

  Who is at war with the rule of law?

  As several Trump allies noted, the rule of law seems to be AWOL when it concerns Hillary Clinton or Hunter Biden:

  Executing a warrant against ex-POTUS is dangerous. The apparent political weaponization of DOJ/FBI is shameful. AG must explain why 250 yrs of practice was upended w/ this raid. I served on Benghazi Com where we proved Hilliary possessed classified info. We didn’t raid her home

  — Mike Pompeo (@mikepompeo) August 9, 2022

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  The FBI raid on former President Trump’s home is unprecedented and highly concerning. If the FBI is looking for classified info or incriminating evidence, they should start with Hunter Biden’s laptop. #Demdoublestandard

  — Rep. Barry Loudermilk (@RepLoudermilk) August 9, 2022

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  Absolute power corrupts absolutely. Countless times we have examples of Democrats flouting the law and abusing power with no recourse, including Hunter Biden. Democrats continually weaponize the bureaucracy against Republicans. This raid is outrageous.

  — Ronna McDaniel (@GOPChairwoman) August 9, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The shocking raid of Donald Trump’s home at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, stands in stark contrast to the many Trump opponents that the FBI has not raided despite public evidence of alleged misconduct. @joelpollak’s latest: https://t.co/jpgMipncyo

  — Wendell Husebø (@WendellHusebo) August 9, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 19:25

• Australia's Central Bank Working With BIS To Launch Digital Currency System
  Australia’s Central Bank Working With BIS To Launch Digital Currency System

  Australia’s Reserve Bank is launching a pilot program over the course of the next year in collaboration with the Bank for International Settlements (the central bank of central banks) to test the “benefits” of a blockchain ledger based digital currency system.  The central bank is added to a long list of participants in BIS efforts to introduce CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) with the target goal of launching them globally by 2025-2030.

  It’s important to note that substantial economic changes would have to occur within the next few years in order to make CBDC a viable option for the general public.  Though many people use electronic transactions as a matter of convenience, a large portion of the population still prefers cash.  In the US, surveys within the last few years show that at least 37% of Americans still choose cash over other methods of payment like credit and debit cards.  In Australia, the number stands at around 32%.  

  The usage of digital payment systems also does not necessarily denote a societal shift away from the idea of cash, it only shows a preference for convenience.  People still like to know that cash exists as an option if they need it or want it, but central banks are working diligently to remove physical cash as a choice within the next 8 years.  

  CBDCs, much like all blockchain based currency mechanisms, are inherently devoid of privacy.  By it’s very design, blockchain tech requires a ledger of transactions than can be tracked by governments if they so choose.  Physical cash, though fiat in nature, is at least anonymous.

   

  With the advent of widespread CBDCs the very notion of privacy in trade would utterly disappear from society within a generation.  Not only that, but if these currencies are tied into a social credit system like the one used in communist China, then there is a good chance governments will be able to freeze accounts or even erase your savings at the push of a button.  And, without physical cash there would be no recourse for trade.  A person deemed “problematic” could be locked out of the economy on a whim.    

  The fact that the BIS is so heavily involved in national digital currency programs suggests that the ultimate goal of CBDCs will be an eventual global digital currency – A one world currency mechanism that all other digital currencies are eventually absorbed into.   This collaboration extends to the IMF and World Bank as well. 

  With so many physical currencies in use around the world and at least 30% of each western nation preferring cash, there is little chance that central banks will be able to force the issue of CBDCs unless there is an economic downturn or crash that inspires a public outcry for alternatives to existing currencies.  Meaning, banking elites will need a crisis that damages the very buying power of multiple currency systems in order to get people accept an aggressive shift to a cashless society before 2030.

  The pitfalls of such a framework are many and the potential for abuse goes far beyond the idea of fiat printing.  CBDCs would give banks and governments ultimate power of influence over the populace, inspiring fear in individuals as they consider the threat that their access to the economy could be severed at any moment should they say or do anything in defiance of the authorities.

  Banks and politicians will try to sell CBDCs as the pinnacle of convenience and a necessary transition in order to stabilize the economy.  What they will not mention is the pervasive level of control they will gain in the process.    

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 19:05

• Republicans Say Americans Will 'Fire The Democratic Majority' In Midterms For Passing Reconciliation Bill
  Republicans Say Americans Will ‘Fire The Democratic Majority’ In Midterms For Passing Reconciliation Bill

  Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Senate Republicans lambasted their Democrat colleagues for passing a $740 billion health care and climate spending bill, warning the economic package will not help the sagging U.S. economy.

  “Democrats under Joe Biden have spent trillions, creating the worst inflation in over four decades, and now their answer to this disaster of their own making is to tax us into a recession,” Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a statement after voting against what he called a “radical proposal.”

  

  Inhofe said it is not right to tackle the spiraling inflation by raising “taxes on small business and middle-class Americans,” as well as spending money on the “Green New Deal” agenda.

  “This proposal could put more than 100,000 American jobs at risk and inflict a severely disproportionate economic impact on natural gas producing states, like Oklahoma,” Inhofe said.

  

  On Aug. 7, the Senate passed the economic package, officially known as the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022,” by a party-line vote of 51 to 50, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote. Senate Democrats were able to get the legislation passed without any Republican support by resorting to a reconciliation process, which allows budget-related bills to pass on a simple majority and avoids the 60-vote filibuster threshold.

  Before the final passage of the bill, Democrats rejected more than 30 Republican amendments, points of order, and motions during a “vote-a-rama,” a procedure that is part of the reconciliation process when senators can introduce an unlimited number of amendments to budget-related measures.

  Americans for Tax Reform (ATR), a U.S. advocacy group, said the Senate bill “will drive up the cost of household energy bills,” according to a commentary published on Aug. 7. It pointed to a provision to levy a 16.4 cents-per-barrel tax on crude oil and imported petroleum products, a cost the group said will be “passed on to consumers in the forms of higher gas prices.”

  The bill is now being sent to the House for a vote, likely on Aug. 12, when House lawmakers reconvene briefly from summer recess. President Joe Biden has issued a statement urging the House to pass it “as soon as possible” and he looked forward to signing the bill into law.

  American Rescue Plan

  Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee, and Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, both reminded Americans where the U.S. economy is now, after Biden signed into the law the “American Rescue Plan Act of 2021” in March last year.

  “My Democratic colleagues who are assuring you this bill [Inflation Reduction Act of 2022] will help you are the same people who said that in 2021,” Graham stated according to a statement from his office.

  “The American Rescue Plan–a $1.9 trillion tax and spend proposal passed in 2021–was disaster for the American people,” Graham continued. “At the time of its passage, inflation was 2.6 percent. It is now 9.1 percent. And it’s no accident that the American Rescue Plan caused this problem.”

  

  On July 13, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) soared 9.1 percent from a year ago, reaching the highest level since November 1981.

  On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 1.3 percent, higher than economists’ estimates of 1.1 percent. Food prices jumped by 10.4 percent, while energy prices surged 41.6 percent. Meanwhile, Americans’ real wages dropped 1 percent from May to June.

  “Republicans warned Democrats in 2021 that if you pass the massive tax and spend bill called the American Rescue Plan, you will not rescue America. You will create a recession,” Graham added. “Unfortunately, we were right then and we are right now.”

  “Where are we today?” Crapo asked in a statement, pointing to the state of the U.S. economy after the “American Rescue Plan” went into effect. “​​Gas prices have doubled. Economic stagnation.”

  Crapo added the “Inflation Reduction Act” was “mislabeled,” for it “does nothing to address the significant inflation we are facing, or to ease burdens born today by low- and middle-income Americans.”

  

  Graham and Ronna McDaniel, chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, both predicted a disaster for the Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections.

  “In November the American people will fire the Democratic majority who have created the chaos in their lives,” Graham said. “Every problem we had before the Inflation Reduction Act was introduced is only going to get worse because of the policies in this bill.”

  McDaniel said, “Democrats will pay the price in November for raising taxes on families during a recession.”

  ‘Wars’

  Some GOP senators suggested that their Democratic colleagues are waging “wars” with their massive spending bill.

  Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), ranking member of the Senate Energy Committee, pointed out how Democrats voted against “commonsense Republicans” amendments to the bill, such as banning strategic petroleum crude exports to China, and expediting consideration of permits for infrastructure and energy projects.

  “The Democrats’ war on American energy continued today,” Barrasso added. “These proposals would have unleashed American energy and lowered costs for families.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 18:45

• Taibbi: Welcome To The Third World
  Taibbi: Welcome To The Third World

  Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

  

  [The Justice Department] must immediately explain the reason for its raid and it must be more than a search for inconsequential archives, or it will be viewed as a political tactic and undermine any future credible investigation and legitimacy of January 6 investigations.

  — Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo

  Headline from Politics Insider this morning:

  Feds likely obtained ‘pulverizing’ amount of evidence ahead of searching Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home, legal experts say.

  Pulverizing! Hold that thought.

  We’ve reached the stage of American history where everything we see on the news must first be understood as political theater. In other words, the messaging layer of news now almost always dominates the factual narrative, with the latter often reported so unreliably as to be meaningless anyway. Yesterday’s sensational tale of the FBI raiding the Mar-a-Lago home of former president Donald Trump is no different.

  As of now, it’s impossible to say if Trump’s alleged offense was great, small, or in between. But this for sure is a huge story, and its hugeness extends in multiple directions, including the extraordinary political risk inherent in the decision to execute the raid. If it backfires, if underlying this action there isn’t a very substantial there there, the Biden administration just took the world’s most reputable police force and turned it into the American version of the Tonton Macoute on national television. We may be looking at simultaneously the dumbest and most inadvertently destructive political gambit in the recent history of this country.

  The top story today in the New York Times, bylined by its top White House reporter, speculates this is about “delayed returning” of “15 boxes of material requested by officials with the National Archives.” If that’s true, and it’s not tied to January 6th or some other far more serious offense, then the Justice Department just committed institutional suicide and moved the country many steps closer to once far-out eventualities like national revolt or martial law. This is true no matter what you think of Trump. Despite the early reports of “cheers” in the West Wing, the mood in center-left media has already drifted markedly from the overnight celebration. The Times story today added a line missing from most early reports: “The search, however, does not mean prosecutors have determined that Mr. Trump committed a crime.” There are whispers throughout the business that editors are striking down certain jubilant language, and we can even see this playing out on cable, where the most craven of the networks’ on-air ex-spooks are crab-crawling backward from last night’s buzz-words:

  MSNBC’S Frank Figliuzzi says ‘FBI agents do not like the term “raid”‘. Moments later, MSNBC updates their lower third to “executes search warrant” pic.twitter.com/KHCXTzJf6p

  — Kayvon Afshari (@KayvonAfshari) August 9, 2022

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  The hugeness of the story has become part of its explanation. An action so extreme, we’re told by expert after expert, could only be based upon “pulverizing” evidence.

  Throughout the Trump years we’ve seen a numbing pattern of rhetorical slippage in coverage of investigations. The aforementioned Politics Insider story is no different. “Likely” evidence in the headline becomes more profound in the text. An amazing five bylined writers explain:

  Regardless of the raid’s focus legal experts quickly reached a consensus about it: A pile of evidence must have backed up the warrant authorizing the search.

  They then quoted a “former top official in the Justice Department’s National Security Division” — you’ll quickly lose track if you try to count the named and unnamed intel spooks appearing in coverage today — who said, “There’s every reason to think that there’s a plus factor in the quantum and quantity of evidence that the government already had to support probable cause in this case.”

  Politico insisted such an action must have required a magistrate’s assent “based upon evidence of a potential crime.” CNN wrote how authorities necessarily “had probable grounds to believe a crime had been committed,” while the New York Times formulation was that “the F.B.I. would have needed to convince a judge that it had probable cause that a crime had been committed.” Social media was full of credentialed observers explaining what must be true. “The affidavit in support of the MAL search warrant must be something else,” said Harvard-trained former Assistant U.S. Attorney Richard Signorelli, one among a heap of hyperventilating names:

  

  It’s amazing how short our cultural memory has become. Apparently few remember all the other times this exact rhetoric was deployed in the interminable list of other Trump investigations, only to backfire later. Does anyone remember this doozy?

  TK News subscribers can read the rest here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 18:25

• Sen. Lindsey Graham: States Should Decide On Same-Sex Marriage
  Sen. Lindsey Graham: States Should Decide On Same-Sex Marriage

  Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said Aug. 7 that states, not the federal government, should decide whether same-sex marriage should be legally recognized.

  

  Graham’s comments came during a panel discussion on CNN’s “State of the Union” after HR 8404, the proposed Respect for Marriage Act, passed the House of Representatives 267-157 on July 19 with the support of 47 Republicans. The bill is pending in the 50/50 Senate where it is expected to enjoy the support of Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Susan Collins (R-Maine.)

  Among the Republicans voting for the bill were House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Scott Perry (R-Penn.), who chairs the conservative House Freedom Caucus. Voting no were Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.).

  Lindsey Graham on CNN says that “I think states should decide the issue of marriage,” but when Dana Bash asks him if states should also decide whether interracial marriage is legal, he dismisses the question as a distraction from inflation pic.twitter.com/L1rGv6ZGBi

  — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 7, 2022

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  The bill would repeal the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), a 1996 law that defined marriage as the union of one man and one woman and allowed states to refuse to accept same-sex marriages recognized under other states’ laws. After then-President Bill Clinton signed DOMA, about 40 states banned same-sex marriage. DOMA was found to be unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in Obergefell v. Hodges (2015), a ruling that held that the Fourteenth Amendment requires states to license and recognize same-sex marriage.

  The new bill would also codify the Obergefell ruling.

  Respect for Marriage Act supporters say the bill is needed because the Supreme Court’s June 24 decision overturning 49-year-old abortion precedent Roe v. Wade potentially opened the door to the future reversal of Obergefell by the court.

  Although Graham said he did not believe the Supreme Court would actually reverse Obergefell, neither the court nor the federal government should be deciding the issue of same-sex marriage for the entire nation.

  “I’ve been consistent. I think states should decide the issue of marriage and states should decide the issue of abortion,” Graham told CNN.

  “I have respect for South Carolina. South Carolina voters here I trust to define marriage and to deal with [the] issue of abortion and not nine people on the court. That’s my view.”

  The proposed Respect for Marriage Act is a distraction from the problems Americans are really facing, Graham suggested.

  “We’re talking about things that don’t happen because you don’t want to talk about inflation, you don’t want to talk about crime,” Graham said, with Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) at his side.

  Blumenthal said the Obergefell ruling must be codified because “there’s a real danger of it being overturned” by the high court.

  “This Supreme Court has indicated it has a hit list, beginning with marriage equality, contraception, possibly others as well, Loving v. Virginia,” the senator said.

  In Loving, the Supreme Court ruled in 1967 that laws forbidding interracial marriage violate the Fourteenth Amendment.

  In his concurring opinion (pdf) in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overruled Roe v. Wade, Justice Brett Kavanaugh specifically wrote that the Dobbs ruling “does not threaten or cast doubt” on Loving or Griswold v. Connecticut, a 1965 Supreme Court decision recognizing the right to use contraceptives.

  In a separate concurring opinion, Justice Clarence Thomas said the court, now that it has overturned Roe, should also reconsider its “demonstrably erroneous” rulings in cases such as Obergefell and Griswold. Thomas did not identify Loving as a precedent that should be overturned.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 18:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Russia Suspends US Inspections Of Its Nuclear Arsenal Under New START Treaty
  Russia Suspends US Inspections Of Its Nuclear Arsenal Under New START Treaty

  While the world is creeping closer toward a DefCon 1 exchange with every passing day, should Russia launch tomorrow there will be no way of knowing just how many warheads and ICBMs Putin is letting loose (not that he needs all that many). The reason is because on Monday, Russia informed the US that it is temporarily suspending American inspections of its nuclear weapons sites under the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START).

  “On August 8, 2022, the Russian Federation officially informed the United States via diplomatic channels that our country is temporarily exempting its facilities from inspection activities under the New START Treaty,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement, adding it also covers “facilities that can be used for demonstrations under the treaty.”

  According to Anadolu, the statement stressed that the measures had a “temporary character” but everyone knows there is nothing more permanent in this world than a “temporary” government mandate.

  It added that the exemptions would be immediately canceled in case of a “resolution of the existing problems and issues regarding the resumption of inspection activities under the treaty.”

  The first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, START I, was signed in 1991 between the US and the USSR at a time when there were many thousands of nuclear warheads and took effect in 1994.

  In 2010, former US President Barack Obama and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a successor agreement called New START which set a limit of no more than 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 missiles, including inspections to verify compliance with the deal.

  Days before it was set to expire on Feb. 5, 2021, the two countries agreed to extend it for another five years.

  Russia’s obfuscating move harkens to the depths of the cold war when every Russian nuclear move was shrouded in secrecy, and clearly what this means is that it’s time for a Spies like Us sequel.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 02:15

• France Looks To Keep Nuclear Power Plants Running Despite Heatwave
  France Looks To Keep Nuclear Power Plants Running Despite Heatwave

  By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

  

  French authorities have allowed five nuclear power plants in France to continue operations and discharge hot water in rivers even during another heatwave as the country looks to keep its electricity generation stable and conserve natural gas for the coming winter.

  Power giant EDF has warned that it might have to reduce nuclear power generation this summer because of environmental regulations as the water levels of rivers are low and water temperatures high. Water from rivers is typically used to cool reactors, while environmental regulations usually set limits on nuclear power output because hot water re-entering rivers could endanger the local flora and fauna.

  However, under exceptional circumstances this year, the French nuclear energy regulator, ASN, said on Monday that it is temporarily changing the rules on hot water discharge at the nuclear power plants Blayais, Bugey, Golfech, Saint-Alban, and Tricastin.

  The regulator thus prolonged the waivers for those plants, considering that the government has requested that nuclear power generation be maintained at as high levels as possible, in view of preserving gas and hydropower for the autumn and the winter, ASN said.

  France’s EDF has warned for weeks that nuclear power generation in France would be reduced as high temperatures of rivers Rhone and Garonne make them too hot to cool reactors.  

  France has had issues with its nuclear power generation this year, which has reduced the available electricity supply in France and Europe and sent French power prices for next year surging. Half of all reactors EDF is operating are currently offline for planned maintenance or repairs.

  France’s nuclear power generation accounts for around 70 percent of its electricity mix, and when its reactors are fully operational, it is a net exporter of electricity to other European countries. Prolonged maintenance at several nuclear reactors this year, however, means that France—and the rest of Europe—have less nuclear-generated power supply now.   

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 08/09/2022 – 01:30

• Marko Kolanovic Says It's Time To Shift Away From Stocks To Commodities
  Marko Kolanovic Says It’s Time To Shift Away From Stocks To Commodities

  Heading into August, we had over 7 full months where every. single. week, JPM’s equivalent of Goldman’s Abby Joseph Cohen, the resident in-house permabull  (and one time value-added quant) Marko Kolanovic, would tell the bank’s sellside clients to just keep buying stocks no matter how much the market crashed the day, week or month before… or was about to crash. We even charted it two months ago, showing his weekly invocations to what was left of JPM clients with actual disposable income, to buy stocks.

  

  And yet, try as hard as he might to influence market sentiment – an ability he lost long ago when he traded in the bloomberg for the corner office – Marko’s weekly sermons from the latest market dip failed to have any impact. In fact, some joked that for stocks to turn higher, Marko would have to finally turn bearish.

  Kolanovic says go underweight corporate bonds over equities.

  The crash will not end until he turns bearish

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 11, 2022

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  All joking aside though, stocks are finally screeching higher and – guess what – Marko, or mARKo as he is also known, has just turned ever so slightly bearish.

  In a note published on Monday, Kolanovic – while still a bull – has become less bullish writing that “given diminishing risks of a more negative shift in behaviour, low positioning in risky assets and widespread negativity in sentiment, as well as robust nominal GDP and revenue growth, risky assets have seen a recovery” and as a result “with commodities lagging other risky assets, we shift some of our risk allocation from equities to commodities.“

  As a result, the team’s overall overweight recommendation on risky assets stays the same. They also remain underweight fixed income and cash.

  

  As Bloomberg notes, “telling clients to cut back on stocks is a notable shift for Kolanovic, voted the No. 1 equity-linked strategist in last year’s Institutional Investor survey.” Well sure, just look at the top chart where every green arrow indicates a time when Marko said to buy, buy the dip, or buy the rip. Far from having any market timing skills, the Croatian’s strategy is to hope he is like the broken clock and be right at least twice in 2022… supposedly that will offset all those other times he was wrong.

  Then said, since Marko is if not genetically then certainly contractually incapable of being openly bearish, his gentle shift away from raging permabull, doesn’t mean that he expects stocks will actually fall. Far from it: the JPMorgan strategist – as always – sees equities rising through year-end, bolstered by robust corporate earnings. Yet with commodities weakening of late, the strategists view it as a chance to pounce. Oh and it’s really a CYA type of note, one where if stocks surge Marko can say “i told you so“, and if stocks plunge Marko can say “I told you to rotate out of stocks.” He’ll just never tell you when to sell ahead of the next bear market.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 23:00

• "We Can't Let Them Do This": Taibbi Talks With Russell Brand
  “We Can’t Let Them Do This”: Taibbi Talks With Russell Brand

  Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

  Had a long, enjoyable discussion with the inestimable Russell Brand last week, part of which is shown in his free preview above. It’s been amazing to watch his show expand since we last spoke, a testament to many things I think, two in particular. He obviously has unique wit and enviable communications skills, which can take anyone far in a YouTube-driven media landscape, but his secret sauce is the easy, accepting vibe of his politics. When talking about issues he focuses on whether he finds humility, honesty, or joyfulness in the picture and celebrates accordingly, but if he finds nothing but meanness and narrowness, he just makes a note of it and moves on.

  The old, dead measuring sticks of left and right are mostly left behind, and you don’t miss them. The sheer cheerfulness of his show has made it difficult for critics to pigeonhole him as any kind of reactionary, and the ballooning growth of his following is an amusing poke in the eye of traditional media that still tries to corral audiences with fear and division, a strategy that’s not just wrong but has a built-in ceiling.

  We talk a little about censorship here, but the full discussion ranged all over. If and when that’s posted, I’ll let you know. You can find his podcast, Under My Skin, here.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 22:30

• Dalio's US-China Conflict Gauge Is Off The Charts
  Dalio’s US-China Conflict Gauge Is Off The Charts

  By Ye Xie Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

  Ray Dalio’s take on US-China tensions over Taiwan contains some alarming warnings.

  While the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund wrote that an all-out war is still considered “improbable,” a gauge he uses to track the conflict between the two countries has surged to a record and is comparable to previous major wars. He warned that the tit-for-tat escalation could easily get out of control, as has often happened in history.

  As far as markets are concerned, the fallout from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan appears to be more noise than signal. But for Bridgewater Associates’s Dalio, the “fourth Taiwan Straits crisis” is not something to be taken lightly, and the situation is “very similar” to the environment immediately prior to the two world wars.

  That’s the message from his gauge of US-China conflict, which is composed of indicators such as changes in military spending and the views of people in each country toward the other, according to an essay published Monday. The current reading is nearly 1.2 standard deviations above average, in the high end of the range of major conflicts.

  

  Dalio isn’t predicting that a war is inevitable. In fact, he thinks an all-out confrontation is unlikely, at least for now. Yet, the risk is an eye-for-an-eye escalation of tensions as we witnessed during the trade war in the Trump era.

  

  From Dalio:

  Pelosi’s visit was perceived by China as a move in favor of Taiwan’s independence, rather than toward one China with Taiwan part of China, and it is essentially challenging the US to stop it from doing what it is doing. The question is whether the US will respond with another escalation that will prompt another Chinese response, in the classic tit-for-tat acceleration into war, or if the sides will step back.

  Even though the US fighting to defend Taiwan would seem to be illogical, not fighting a Chinese attack on Taiwan might be perceived as being a big loss of stature and power over other countries that won’t support the US, if it doesn’t fight and win for its allies. Additionally, such defeats can make leaders look weak to their own people, which can cost them the political support they need to remain in power.

  An all-out confrontation between the two superpowers would have a much larger global impact than the Russia-Ukraine war. All we can do is hope it doesn’t come to that. Yet, as Dalio said, hope is not a strategy.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 22:02

• Cruz To 'Wait And See' Whether Trump Runs In 2024 Before Deciding On White House Bid
  Cruz To ‘Wait And See’ Whether Trump Runs In 2024 Before Deciding On White House Bid

  Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said he, like everyone else, is going to “wait and see” whether former President Donald Trump is going to run in 2024, before making his own decision about a possible bid for the White House.

  “Everyone is going to wait and see what Donald Trump decides and make decisions from there,” Cruz told Fox News on Aug. 5 at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Dallas, Texas.

  “I am grateful for his leadership,” Cruz continued. “He’s going to decide what he wants to do. And frankly, he’s going to decide on his own timeframe.”

  “He’s going to decide when he damn well wants to, and the rest of the world will react accordingly,” Cruz added.

  In 2016, Trump garnered 1,441 delegates in state primaries and caucuses, before being officially nominated as the Republican presidential candidate. Cruz finished second with 551 delegates.

  

  Trump has not made public announcements about running for president in 2024. However, during a speech at CPAC on Saturday, he hinted at a possible 2024 run when he said, “We may have to do it again.” Last month, he told New York Magazine that he has made up his mind about whether to run in 2024, but the “big decision” is when to make the announcement.

  The former president is currently the favorite for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. According to the results of a CPAC straw poll announced on Saturday, Trump won 69 percent of the vote, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with 24 percent. Cruz finished a distant third with 2 percent.

  In a head-to-head matchup for the 2024 race, President Joe Biden and Trump are locked in a “statistical dead heat,” according to a July poll by San Francisco-based data insights company Premise. The poll found Trump with 53 percent support compared to Biden with 47 percent.

  Cruz has previously said he was thinking about the 2024 race for president. In an interview with Newsmax in July, Cruz said he was “certainly looking at it.”

  “2016 was the most fun I’ve ever had in my life,” he continued, reflecting on his last presidential campaign. “We came incredibly close, had an incredible grassroots army.”

  Speaking to Fox, Cruz said he is focusing on the 2022 elections at the moment.

  “I’m spending practically every waking moment on the campaign trail, focusing on retaking the house and retaking the Senate,” Cruz said. “I think we’re gonna win votes. I think we’re gonna see a Republican majority in the House. I think we’re gonna see a Republican majority in the Senate.”

  Late last month, Cruz took part in a campaign rally in Cottleville to support Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, who advanced to the November general election on Aug. 2 after winning the state’s Republican Senate primary. Schmitt is endorsed by both Cruz and Trump.

  Schmitt will face Democratic primary winner Trudy Busch Valentine in November, to fill a Senate seat to be vacated by Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), who decided not to seek a third term in office.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 21:30

• Watch: Italian Army Detonates WWII Bomb Found In Dried Up River
  Watch: Italian Army Detonates WWII Bomb Found In Dried Up River

  The Italian Army detonated a World War II bomb uncovered by fishermen on the drought-stricken Po River.

  “Fishermen found the bomb on the bank of the River Po due to a decrease in water levels caused by drought,” Colonel Marco Nasi told Reuters. 

  Army specialists defused the 240 kg (530 pounds) U.S.-manufactured bomb found on Po’s river bank near the northern village of Borgo Virgilio, close to the city of Mantua, last week. 

  

  About 3,000 people in the surrounding area were told to evacuate during the disposal operation.

  

  Borgo Virgilio’s Mayor Francesco Aporti said many residents were not pleased with the evacuation orders: 

  “At first, some of the inhabitants said they would not move, but in the last few days, we think we have persuaded everyone,” Aporti said. 

  On Sunday, army specialists carried out a controlled explosion of the bomb in a quarry in Medole, about 45 km (30 miles) from where it was discovered. 

  

  Watch the army remove the bomb from the river bank and then blow it up at the quarry. 

  We noted in early July that Italy declared a state of emergency in five northern regions surrounding the Po due to a dangerous heatwave and drought. The country’s longest river snakes around 405 miles in northern Italy and is used for drinking water, crop irrigation, and hydroelectric power. 

  According to the European news outlet Euronews, this is the sixth water emergency for the Po River basin in two decades. 

  Who knows what else will be found as water levels drop to dangerously low levels… 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 21:00

• Fourth "Discovery Of Human Skeletal Remains" At Lake Mead Since May
  Fourth “Discovery Of Human Skeletal Remains” At Lake Mead Since May

  Since May, the fourth set of human remains has been discovered at Lake Mead as water levels recede amid a severe drought. 

  The National Park Service tweeted rangers received an emergency call reporting the “discovery of human skeletal remains” at Swim Beach in Nevada on Saturday.

  🚨 ALERT: National Park Service rangers received an emergency call reporting the discovery of human skeletal remains at Swim Beach at Lake Mead on Saturday, August 6.

  Read the full news release here: https://t.co/XoGXPxeXgf

  📸: NPS/CJohnston pic.twitter.com/6MtvfrNg8d

  — Lake Mead (@lakemeadnps) August 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The cause of death and the identity are a mystery, and no other details have been released by the rangers. 

  

  The Clark County Medical Examiner is currently determining the cause of death as the investigation is ongoing. 

  This is the fourth discovery of human skeletal remains at Lake Mead since May and probably won’t be the last as water levels drop. 

  The first body, discovered on May 1, was stuffed in a barrel, likely a murder victim who died “sometime in the mid-’70s to early ’80s, based on clothing and footwear the victim was found with,” according to a press release from the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police. Paddleboards discovered the second body on May 7 and the third on July 26. 

  As of Monday, Lake Mead’s water level was at 1,041 feet, approximately 173 feet below its level in 2000 when the great drought began. 

  

  “Continuing a 22-year downward trend, water levels in Lake Mead stand at their lowest since April 1937, when the reservoir was still being filled for the first time,” NASA wrote in a report last week. The U.S. space agency also released satellite images of the lake’s water level falling over time. 

  

  “We will likely find additional bodies that have been dumped in Lake Mead” as the water level continues to drop, Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Homicide Lt. Ray Spencer said in May. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 20:35

• Biden And Pelosi Give Wrong 'Facts' About 'Assault Weapon' Ban
  Biden And Pelosi Give Wrong ‘Facts’ About ‘Assault Weapon’ Ban

  Authored by Emily Miller via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats are trying to reinstate the federal assault weapon ban that was in effect for 10 years because—they claim—it reduced gun crime. The bill, which just passed the House, will soon get a vote in the Senate.

  In the effort to get it passed, Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) made some grand claims, which they called “facts,” about the previous ban on rifles leading to decreasing crime. But those facts don’t appear to be backed up by evidence.

  “Supporters of the bans are calling their assertions ‘facts,’ in an effort to mislead the public,” Lawrence Keane, senior vice president and general counsel of the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) told The Epoch Times. “Many of the Democratic Members of Congress were purposefully misleading in their assertions that the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban reduced crime. This level of willful ignorance would be comical if the effects of what they are trying to do wasn’t so blatantly unconstitutional.”

  The ban was in effect from 1994 to 2004.

  Pelosi

  During that time, “we witnessed gun crime with assault weapons drop by up to 40 percent,” Pelosi said on the House floor during the recent debate.

  “The number of murders with rifles actually increased slightly when the ban went into effect,” John R Lott Jr., the president of Crime Research, told The Epoch Times, referring to data from the FBI’s annual release of reports from law enforcement agencies on homicides by weapon type. Lott also pointed out that no one collects data on all crimes committed with so-called assault weapons.

  The term “assault weapon” is a political phrase referring to semi-automatic rifles with various cosmetic features. The House bill calls an “assault weapon” a rifle that has one feature such as a pistol grip, folding stock, or grenade launcher.

  While Pelosi makes it sound like there’s a grave risk of being killed by a rifle, it’s actually a rare crime. Lott has reported that the percentage of firearm murders with any type of rifles was 4.8 percent prior to the ban starting in September 1994. During the 10-year ban, homicide by rifle was 4.9 percent of all murders. Then rifle homicides dropped to 3.6 percent after the ban expired in 2004.

  The speaker did not cite the source of her statistics. She could be referring to how all violent crime went down since the spike in the 1980s, which would include the small number of murders by rifles.

  You can see this in this graphic of the FBI data. The decrease was dramatic.

  There were 15,463 homicides by gun in 1994 when the ban went into effect and 724 were by rifles. When the ban expired in 2004, there were 9,385 homicides and 403 of them were by rifle.

  “The falling crime rates are more likely due to many other factors than firearm ownership, including a concerted effort and focus on prosecuting criminals,” explained Keane.

  Pelosi’s press office did not respond to a request for information on the source of her data.

  Studies

  Furthermore, there is no study that has proven that the gun control law had a direct effect on crime reduction. Quite the opposite, Rand’s “Study of Gun Policy” in 2018 (pdf) looked at various studies on the impact of the law on violent crime and concluded that “available evidence is inconclusive for the effect of assault weapon bans on total homicides and firearm homicides.”

  The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) also published a report in 2003 on evaluating the effectiveness of firearms laws and studied the assault weapon ban. It said that studies were “inconsistent” and thus concluded that, “evidence was insufficient to determine the effectiveness” of the law.

  Ownership of these so-called assault weapons increased during the ban. Keane, the powerful gun lobbyist, pointed out that during the ban, what his organization calls Modern Sporting Rifles continued to be legally manufactured and sold if they did not have two of the cosmetic features necessary for the rifle to be banned.

  Biden has been pushing incessantly for it to be reinstated since he took office on the basis that it decreased mass shootings. He said in July: “Assault weapons need to be banned. They were banned. I led the fight in 1994. And then, under pressure from the NRA and the gun manufacturers and others, that ban was lifted in 2004.”

  NRA stands for National Rifle Association.

  Biden also said on June 2, “In the 10 years it was law, mass shootings went down. But after Republicans let the law expire in 2004 and those weapons were allowed to be sold again, mass shootings tripled. Those are the facts.”

  But an Epoch Times investigation into mass shootings showed that they are extremely rare and went up and down during the time period in question. As you can see in this graphic, there was no pattern of mass shootings in that 10-year period.

  The White House press office did not respond to a request for the source of the president’s data.

  Pelosi echoed Biden with her own statistic, saying in a speech that “since the ban expired, the number of mass shooting deaths has grown by nearly 500 percent.”

  That’s not true.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 20:10

• US To Join Military Drills Near India's Disputed Border With China
  US To Join Military Drills Near India’s Disputed Border With China

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  The US will participate in war games with the Indian military in an area of India that is less than 62 miles away from the country’s disputed border with China, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAN).

  The drills will be held from October 18-31 and will be the eighteenth iteration of annual exercises between the two militaries known as Yudh Abhyas, which is Hindi for “war practice.” They will be held in the Auli area of the Indian state of Uttarakhand in the Himalayas mountain range.

  

  The Yudh Abhyas drills are meant to train for fighting in high altitudes. The last iteration of the exercises was held in the mountains of Alaska in October 2021.

  Tensions have been high between India and China in the Himalayas since June 2020, when clashes in the Galwan Valley killed 20 Indian troops and four Chinese soldiers. Since then, China and India have been engaged in talks to reduce tensions, but they have also reinforced their militaries along the LAN.

  The US has been increasing military ties with India in recent years with hopes of using New Delhi as a counter to Beijing. After the Galwan Valley clashes, the US and India signed a new military pact, known as the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA).

  Under BECA, the US can share more intelligence and satellite information with India. US military leaders have said that since signing the pact, the US has been able to help India with surveillance of the Chinese military along the LAN. The intelligence could also potentially be used for Indian missile strikes in the region.

  Location of the major June 2020 border clash which left 20 Indian troops dead, via BBC:

  

  News of the drills comes not long after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) made her provocative trip to Taiwan, which China responded to by launching its largest-ever military drills around the island.

  Beijing also responded by cutting off military talks with Washington, and tensions between the US and China continue to soar.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 19:45

• Norway To Limit Electricity Exports, 'Cannot Rule Out' Rationing
  Norway To Limit Electricity Exports, ‘Cannot Rule Out’ Rationing

  Norway on Monday announced that due to an ‘uncertain and demanding situation’ over sky-high electricity prices – caused by low water levels at hydroelectric stations (in what they refer to as a “weather-dependent power supply”), as well as the “dramatic situation in Europe” regarding Ukraine, the government will be limiting electricity exports “when the water level in the reservoirs drops to very low levels.”

  

  Norway has notably been referred to as the “battery of Europe” thanks to its ability to generate and export massive quantities of hydroelectric power.

  They also won’t rule out the ‘low probability’ of having to ration electricity in the spring.

  So far this year, far less electricity (11.6 TWh) has been produced in southern Norway than at the same time last year – 18 per cent less. In South-West Norway, the total production of adjustable hydropower last week was the lowest we have seen so far this year.

  Collectively, this results in historically high electricity prices and a situation where, for the first time in many years, we cannot completely rule out a period of electricity rationing in the spring. But our professional authorities emphasize that the probability of this is low. -Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Norway

  MUST READ: Statement from the Norwegian government on the electricity situation in the country (exports controls are coming, and for the first time, it flags risk of “rationing” in spring).

  Only available in Norwegian, so link here is Google Translate: https://t.co/EIWY6I0wMy

  — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) August 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “This is not something people can afford to pay,” said Morten Frisch, a Norwegian energy consultant based in the United Kingdom, in a statement to the Daily Telegraph, adding that the cost of energy in Norway has already risen between 10 and 20 times the price people were paying last year.

  “When they run dry, they run dry, and it’s likely to take a minimum of three months, possibly six months, before they can be refilled by rain,” Frisch continued.

  As Torkel Nyberg of OilPrice.com writes:

  A cut in Norwegian power exports would be felt in Northwest Europe, which itself is grappling with issues at coal and nuclear power generating plants due to the low water level in rivers limiting coal supply via barges and warm river water unsuitable for cooling nuclear reactors.

  As a result of these issues and the uncertainty over natural gas supply from Russia, power prices in Germany for the year ahead jumped to a record on Friday.

  This summer’s dry weather across Europe has affected Norwegian hydropower, which accounts for 90% of Norwegian power generation. The remaining around 10% of the electricity supply in Norway comes from wind power.

  While Europe scrambles to procure natural gas for winter power generation and heating, Western Europe’s biggest oil and gas producer, Norway, has a whole different power problem this summer—dry weather, which depletes water reservoirs for hydropower.

  Although Norway doesn’t use gas for power generation, Europe’s gas and energy crisis is felt there, too. In recent weeks, hydropower producers have been discouraged from tapping more water for hydropower generation to save water for the winter. Operators were also asked not to export too much electricity to the rest of Europe as reservoirs are not as full as in previous years, and not to rely on imports from Europe, which is struggling with energy supply. Some Norwegian utilities, including top electricity producer Statkraft, have followed the plea from transmission system operator Statnet not to produce too much electricity now.  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 19:20

• DeSantis Slams 'Weaponized Federal Agencies' For Raid On Trump's Mar-A-Lago
  DeSantis Slams ‘Weaponized Federal Agencies’ For Raid On Trump’s Mar-A-Lago

  Update (2053ET): Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) came out with a blistering response to the Monday FBI raid on former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, reportedly in connection with materials Trump brought with him after leaving office.

  

  “The raid of MAL is another escalation in the weaponization of federal agencies against the Regime’s political opponents, while people like Hunter Biden get treated with kid gloves,” said DeSantis. “Now the Regime is getting another 87k IRS agents to wield against its adversaries? Banana Republic.”

  The raid of MAL is another escalation in the weaponization of federal agencies against the Regime’s political opponents, while people like Hunter Biden get treated with kid gloves. Now the Regime is getting another 87k IRS agents to wield against its adversaries? Banana Republic.

  — Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantisFL) August 9, 2022

  Attorney General Garland: preserve your documents and clear your calendar. pic.twitter.com/dStAjnwbAT

  — Kevin McCarthy (@GOPLeader) August 9, 2022

  If they can do it to a former President, imagine what they can do to you.

  — House Judiciary GOP (@JudiciaryGOP) August 8, 2022

  

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  BREAKING: @dbongino goes off on the FBI Raid on Donald Trump:

  “This is some Third World BULLSH*T” pic.twitter.com/2e9jryfVOi

  — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) August 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  If DoJ has the goods on Trump, then charge him. But raiding his home for a violation of the presidential records act on the anniversary of Nixon’s resignation smells like partisan bullshit and an abuse of power.

  — Eli Lake (@EliLake) August 9, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  …That is why, again, we cannot assume that criminal charges are inevitable after such a raid . On MSNBC, a host said that the “orange jumpsuit may be coming.” That is rather premature given history of prosecutions in this area and the absence of confirmed evidence.

  — Jonathan Turley (@JonathanTurley) August 9, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Trump supporters have begun gathering outside Mar-a-Lago.

  🚨#BREAKING: Trump supporters gather outside Mar-A-Lago protesting the FBI raid

  📌#PalmBeach | #Florida

  Right now Multiple trump supporters have started to gather as large crowds grow near Mar-A-Lago Florida after the 45th president Donald trump was raided by FBI this evening pic.twitter.com/WHgWZFjsfr

  — R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) August 9, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Moments ago, Donald Trump – who is still banned by Twitter – published a statement on Truth Social in which he said that his Florida home, Mar A Lago is “currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents“, an assault which according to Trump “could only take place in broken, Third-World Countries.” He is probably right. He also claims the Fed’s presence was unannounced and the reason was politically motivated.

  

  His full statement posted on his Truth Social account is below:

  Statement by Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the

  United States of America

  These are dark times for our Nation, as my beautiful home, Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, is currently under siege, raided, and occupied by a large group of FBI agents. Nothing like this has ever happened to a President of the United States before. After working and cooperating with the relevant Government agencies, this unannounced raid on my home was not necessary or appropriate. It is prosecutorial misconduct, the weaponization of the Justice System, and an attack by Radical Left Democrats who desperately don’t want me to run for President in 2024, especially based on recent polls, and who will likewise do anything to stop Republicans and Conservatives in the upcoming Midterm Elections. Such an assault could only take place in broken, Third-World Countries. Sadly, America has now become one of those Countries, corrupt at a level not seen before. They even broke into my safe! What is the difference between this and Watergate, where operatives broke into the Democrat National Committee? Here, in reverse, Democrats broke into the home of the 45th President of the United States.

  The political persecution of President Donald J. Trump has been going on for years, with the now fully debunked Russia, Russia, Russia Scam, Impeachment Hoax #1, Impeachment Hoax #2, and so much more, it just never ends. It is political targeting at the highest level!

  Hillary Clinton was allowed to delete and acid wash 33,000 E-mails AFTER they were subpoenaed by Congress. Absolutely nothing has happened to hold her accountable. She even took antique furniture, and other items from the White House.

  I stood up to America’s bureaucratic corruption, I restored power to the people, and truly delivered for our Country, like we have never seen before. The establishment hated it. Now, as they watch my endorsed candidates win big victories, and see my dominance in all polls, they are trying to stop me, and the Republican Party, once more. The lawlessness, political persecution, and Witch Hunt must be exposed and stopped.
   
  I will continue to fight for the Great American People!

  

  Local reporters confirmed the raid, saying the FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago. “They just left,” although it isn’t clear what the search was about.

  Scoop — The Federal Bureau of Investigation @FBI today executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, two sources confirm to @Fla_Pol.

  “They just left,” one source said.

  Not sure what the search warrant was about.

  TBH, Im not a strong enough reporter to hunt this down, but its real. pic.twitter.com/hMsGhlVp3d

  — Peter Schorsch (@PeterSchorschFL) August 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Social media was predictably full of kneejerk reactions.

  BREAKING: The U.S. government is currently raiding an opposition party leader’s home, as seen in tin pot dictatorships.

  If this were happening in another country, the State Department would condemn it and fund the opposition. https://t.co/CKp7P9yRsz

  — Raheem J. Kassam (@RaheemKassam) August 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Trump said the FBI is *raiding* Mar-a-Lago, not *raising* it. 😬

  — Tim O’Brien (@TimOBrien) August 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  This is disgraceful and it happens because Republicans refuse to weaponize their prosecutors as Dems do.

  Chris Wray is a Democrat operative. https://t.co/RK2Ld2Ahel

  — John Cardillo (@johncardillo) August 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  We live under a morally repugnant Gestapo regime.

  Our Founders would puke.

  This is NOT America.

  — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) August 8, 2022

  So you’re saying we’re a Banana Republic…??? https://t.co/iJFdRavEjt

  — Kuppy (@hkuppy) August 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  According to the New York Times:

  The search, according to two people familiar with the investigation, appeared to be focused on material that Mr. Trump had brought with him to Mar-a-Lago, his private club and residence, after he left the White House. Those boxes contained many pages of classified documents, according to a person familiar with their contents.

  Mr. Trump delayed returning 15 boxes of material requested by officials with the National Archives for many months, only doing so when there became a threat of action being taken to retrieve them.

  As Techno Fog notes, the politics of the search can’t be ignored. If the New York Times is to be believed, Trump’s purported crime – the delay of returning materials – could have been resolved in another manner not involving raiding his home and breaking open a personal safe. No doubt the search is an escalation by a desperate Regime confronted by their own failures at home and abroad.

  This doesn’t necessarily mean there wasn’t another reason for the search. Could it have to do with the DOJ’s ongoing January 6 probe (although, given the politicization of Biden’s DOJ, that is no guarantee)? Maybe not, but it might be too soon to tell. Last week there was reporting that a federal grand jury investigating January 6 had issued subpoenas to the Trump White House Counsel, Pat Cipollone, and his top deputy, Patrick Philbin.

  According to the author, it is possible that the roadmap for the DOJ comes from the January 6 Committee, “which has poured out the thin gruel of purported criminal charges against Trump, alleging he and others, including attorney John Eastman, could be charged with”:

  1. Obstruction of an Official Proceeding (18 USC 1512(c)(2)); and
  2. Conspiracy to Defraud the United States (18 USC 371).

  Each of these counts, as well as the DOJ’s pursuit of Trump and his attorneys and advisors, amounts to the criminalization of politics, or as Technofog puts it, “arguments of law that might fail in the courts are now prosecutable offenses. Attempts to delay a vote count based on novel, and not corrupt, interpretations of the law can put you in prison. Issues surrounding the counting of state results or whether the Vice President can refuse to count electoral votes is a matter to be decided through the civil or political process, not through charges brought by vindictive opponents.”

  Meanwhile, we are still waiting for an official comment:

  No comment yet from either @TheJusticeDept or @FBIMiamiFL.

  — Steve Herman (@W7VOA) August 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

   

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 19:08

• China’s Economy Slumps Further, Raising Fears Of Layoffs
  China’s Economy Slumps Further, Raising Fears Of Layoffs

  Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  Both official and independent data show that China’s economy has slumped further in the second quarter of the year, with manufacturing slowing down unexpectedly and a downturn in the real estate sector intensifying. This has raised fears of a wave of layoffs in the second half of the year adding to already severe unemployment issues in China.

  China’s economy deteriorated further in July, said a China Beige Book International (CBBI) report in early August, which provides independent economic data. Factory outputs and new production orders in China reached their slowest since mid-2020, and retail employment was at its worst in more than two years, according to the latest CBBI survey. Deterioration in revenue growth for manufacturers and retailers curtailed profits, the report said.

  On Aug. 1, official data revealed even worse numbers in manufacturing and real estate. Data released by the Chinese regime’s statistics bureau showed that the purchasing managers index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry for July was 49.0 compared with 50.2 in the previous month, a decrease of 1.2 percentage, which is below the critical level of 50.

  In July, with more cases of COVID-19 emerging in parts of China, the communist regime continued its strict “zero-COVID” measures, putting many cities in lockdown, including industrial centers and economic hubs.

  Manufacturing activity had rebounded in June after the lockdowns were lifted in parts of mainland China but have now slumped again.

  The China Real Estate Index Research Institute publicized that in July, the average price of new residential buildings month-on-month in 100 cities in mainland China dropped instead of increasing, and the average price of homes further plummeted. Price drops for new houses were greater in cities, especially in the Yangtze River and Pearl River deltas, where housing prices had been increasing in previous years.

  

  Property sales in the 17 cities tracked by the Index Research Institute fell 33.4 percent month-on-month in July, compared with an 88.9 percent jump in June as lockdowns lifted.

  High Unemployment Rate

  According to a report by major Chinese finance website Caixin, employment in the domestic manufacturing sector has continued to shrink, with the employment index falling to its lowest point in 27 months. The report attributed the layoffs to cost-cutting measures of factories, weak sales, and a “cautious attitude toward hiring” across industries.

  In addition, nearly 11 million college students in mainland China graduated in the summer—a record high. According to official data released by the Chinese regime, the unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 climbed to 19.3 percent in June, also record high.

  

  Due to widespread uncertainty about employment, consumer confidence remains fragile. For those who still have jobs, many are more reluctant to spend money.

  Official data shows that economic growth in mainland China slowed to 0.4 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The outside world believes that China’s economy may even already be in recession, as the Chinese regime is known for its lack of transparency and often reports false numbers.

  Dim Prospects

  At China’s ruling Communist Party’s (CCP) Politburo meeting on July 28, the regime acknowledged that this year’s international environment is “complex and severe,” and that domestic tasks are “difficult and arduous.” The CCP leadership remained silent on the 5.5 percent economic growth target it set for this year. Analysts say this suggests that the CCP believes it will ultimately fail to achieve this goal.

  Independent current affairs commentator Tang Jingyuan told The Epoch Times that the downturn in Chinese real estate, a pillar industry and the largest sector of local government investment and revenue, has intensified. “Manufacturing employment continues to shrink, and unemployment hits a new high, and manufacturing corresponds to the export of China’s economy. It shows that the mainland China’s consumption stimulus policy has no effect,” he said.

  “These data reflect that the three pillars of China’s economy: investment, exports and consumption, are overall in deceleration or even stalling. On this basis, the CCP authorities still stick to ‘zero-COVID’ policy, which will only hurt the Chinese economy,” Tang said.

  “To make matters worse, China’s economic crisis is not a question of whether it can achieve the targeted growth rate, but whether it can stabilize the economy in the next five or even 10 years.”

  Xu Jian contributed to the report.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 18:55

• Are Bonds Really A Buy
  Are Bonds Really A Buy

  By Russell Clark of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets Substack

  

  Every time I open twitter these days, I see someone saying “Here comes deflation and its time to buy bonds!” and then providing some graph to back up the view. Typically it will involve the price of commodities, or perhaps some variation of PMI that leads core inflation. I think they a probably wrong – and I say that with about 90% confidence. At some point bonds will be a buy, but not today.

  So why is everyone a bond buyer? I think its mainly psychological. When the Federal Reserve first embarked on its QE program, everyone became very bearish long date bonds. Oddly, everyone seemed to ignore the experience of Japan, which had first invented QE, and had never seen a bond bear market. To see this in “asset flows” we can look at TLT US – the long dated treasury ETF. As late as 2014, the short interest in this was greater than the shares outstanding! TLT was actually net short (well not TLT, but it was creating units for people to be short treasuries). Run forward to today, and the long position has double in 6 months, and short position is near all time lows.

  

  Nothing like being short and wrong to convert people to ultra bulls (see bitcoin, Tesla etc…). So what are these converted bulls looking at to make them so bullish bonds? First of all, they have seen the treasury yield curve invert, which has tended to signal recession, so the basic assumption is that the Federal Reserve wont raise rates anymore. This assumption puts interest rates at the heart of inflation, that is high interest rates kills inflation. I think this assumption is wrong.

  

  An inverted yield curve and signs of a top in commodity prices is enough to push people into being bullish bonds.

  

  So why were the bond bears wrong in 2014, and why are the bond bulls wrong now?

  Often when people talk about structural inflation, they talk about budget deficits and low interest rates. Japan has proven that large deficits do not create inflation in of themselves. This has formed the organising idea behind which MMT – or deficits don’t matter – crowd.

  

  Focusing on deficits miss the point. The key issue is whether governments are enacting “austerity” or not. Austerity can come in many different flavours, from reducing government payroll, to cutting or freezing wages, but it is not hard to work out when government is enacting austerity or not. Japan has not seen a public servant pay rise in decades. When we look at the US, we can see that post GFC, we were in an age of austerity. You don’t need a microscope to see that post Covid, US government spending remain elevated compared to pre-Covid.

  

  You also don’t have to be much of a political analysis to make an educated guess that neither the Republicans or the Democrats will cut spending until the bond market tells them to do so. When I look at CPI over over 8% and US 30 Year Treasury sub 3%, I think bond bulls have lost their minds.

  

  The intellectual thread behind all of this, is that capitalism is deflationary, and socialism is inflationary. The problem is that capitalism creates income inequality, the eventually destroys the social contract, And that point “some” socialism is necessary. We are seeing the social contract fray in the UK, where strikes are now commonplace. Perhaps the US is different, but my guess big government is here to stay, and so is inflation. Bonds look like shorts to me.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 18:07

• New Patent May Reveal Russia's Next-Generation Bomber Design
  New Patent May Reveal Russia’s Next-Generation Bomber Design

  New patent details have emerged of what could be the first basic design concept behind Russia’s next-generation stealth bomber intended by Moscow to replace the aging fleet of Soviet-era aircraft, according to The War Zone. 

  

  The patent drawings show what appears to be technology related to an engine intake duct awarded to Russian aerospace and defense company Tupolev. It may provide the first glimpse at the company’s long-in-development PAK DA stealth bomber. 

  “The intake is shown from the front, top, and side. But most interesting is the aircraft in which the intake is incorporated. While it’s worth noting that the plane design depicted is not described as the PAK DA, it’s certainly in keeping with semi-official and unofficial reports of the bomber’s general design,” The War Zone said. 

  

  Based on the drawings, the shape of the aircraft appears similar to the U.S. Air Force’s B-2 Spirit. We noted last year that “the strategic bomber race is on…” Here’s a side-by-side comparison of both bombers. 

  

  A source familiar with PAK DA’s development recently told Russian news outlet TASS that the long-range bomber will be assembled in 2023. 

  “Currently, the experimental model is being built. The demonstration model will be ready by 2023,” the source said.

  They also said, “the subsonic PAK DA will be armed with hypersonic weapons. Besides, its flight will be aided by drones.” 

  Yesterday, a possible depiction of PAK DA got some attention. The figures stem from a patent. While it might not be interesting for most people I was getting curious about the patent itself. So a short summary of what the patent explains/what I understood (using Chrome Translate) https://t.co/NmRBboIwKp

  — F: нет войне (@F22124509) August 2, 2022

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  Meanwhile, the public unveiling of the USAF’s next stealth bomber could be later this year. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 17:40

• Ron Paul: Pelosi's Taiwan Trip Exposes US Policy As Dangerous, Deadly, & Dumb
  Ron Paul: Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Exposes US Policy As Dangerous, Deadly, & Dumb

  Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,

  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s “surprise” trip to Taiwan last week should be “Exhibit A” as to why interventionism is dangerous, deadly, and dumb. Though she claimed her visit won some sort of victory for democracy over autocracy, the stopover achieved nothing of the sort. It was a pointless gesture that brought us closer to military conflict with zero benefits.

  As Col. Doug Macgregor said of Pelosi’s trip on a recent episode of Tucker Carlson Tonight, “statesmanship involves advancing American interests at the least cost to the American people. None of that is in play here… Posturing is not statesmanship.”

  

  Pelosi’s trip was no outlier. Such counterproductive posturing is much celebrated by both parties in Washington. Neoconservative Senators Bob Menendez and Lindsey Graham were thrilled with Pelosi’s stop in Taipei and used it as a springboard to push for new legislation that would essentially declare war on China by declaring Taiwan a “major non-NATO ally.”

  The “one China” policy that, while perhaps not perfect, has kept the peace for more than 40 years is to be scrapped and replaced with one sure to provoke a war. Who benefits?

  Foolishly taking the US to the brink of war with Russia over Ukraine is evidently not enough for Washington’s bipartisan warmongering class. Risking a nuclear war on two fronts, with both Russia and China, is apparently the only way for Washington to show the rest of the world it’s serious.

  The Washington Post’s neoconservative columnist Josh Rogin accurately captures the mindset in Washington DC with a recent article titled, “The skeptics are wrong: The US can confront both China and Russia.”

  For Washington’s foreign policy “experts,” those of us who don’t believe a war with both Russia and China is a great idea are written off as “skeptics.” Count me as one of the skeptics!

  During the Cold War there were times of heightened tension, but even in the darkest days the idea that nuclear war with China and the Soviet Union could be a solution was held only by only a few madmen. Now, with the ideological struggles of the Cold War a decades-old memory, such an argument makes even less sense. Yet this is what Washington is selling.

  The US fighting a proxy war with Russia through Ukraine and Nancy Pelosi provoking China nearly to the point of war over Taiwan is meant to show the world how tough we are. In reality, it demonstrates the opposite. The drunken man in a bar challenging everyone to a fight is not tough. He’s foolish. He has nothing to gain and everything to lose from his display of bravado.

  This is the first time I’ve seen a CNN guest take one of the network’s jingoistic halfwits to the woodshed on Ukraine and Taiwan so comprehensively in such a short amount of time. And it was @rogerwaters. pic.twitter.com/maN4DTdMhO

  — Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) August 7, 2022

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  That is interventionism at its core: a foolish policy that provokes nothing but anger overseas, benefits no one in the US except the special interests, and leaves the rest of us much poorer and worse off.

  There may be plenty to criticize about China’s government and policies. They are far from perfect, particularly in protection of civil liberties. But have we already forgotten that our own government shut down the country for two years over a virus, and then forced a huge number of Americans to take an experimental shot that is proving to be as worthless as it is dangerous? Let’s look at the log in our own eye before we start lobbing missiles overseas.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 17:15

• Semiconductors Emerge As Battleground In US-China Race
  Semiconductors Emerge As Battleground In US-China Race

  Authored by Jessica Mao via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  As every aspect of modern life becomes more and more digitized, not just the economies of nations but their sovereign influence will rely more and more on the command of technology.

  Although the United States and China are not engaged in traditional warfare, they are engaged in a war of ideas, trade, and technology, especially in semiconductor hegemony, where both sides are battling for supply and advancement.

  In recent years, the United States has made a series of moves to hinder and outpace Chinese development in semiconductors, including persuading Asian semiconductor powerhouses to join its alliance, passing a massive spending bill to aid domestic chip production, and banning exports of high-end chipmaking equipment to China.

  In late July, the United States expanded its bans on exports to China of equipment that can make semiconductors up to 14 nanometers in size, according to major U.S. chipmaking equipment suppliers, such as Lam Research Corp. and KLA, who were notified by the government about the expanded restrictions.

  Previously, the United States had banned the sale of equipment that can produce chips of 10 nm or smaller to Chinese chip manufacturers.

  Generally in semiconductor fabrication, the smaller the process technology, the more advanced the chip. The smaller the technology node, the higher the transistor density and the lower the chip power consumption, resulting in higher performance. However, the smaller manufacturing process requires more advanced material and equipment, and will incur a greater cost in R&D and production.

  

  The development follows a historic $52 billion bill passed by U.S. congress on July 27 to aid domestic chip makers in research, development, and production volume. One of the conditions is that the companies receiving the funds will not increase advanced chip production in mainland China.

  The U.S. Department of Commerce said the tightening policies impair “PRC efforts to manufacture advanced semiconductors to address significant national security risks to the United States.”

  Meanwhile, the United States is also reportedly planning to ban the exports of U.S. chipmaking equipment that produces advanced NAND chips to major Chinese chipmakers, such as Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp (YMTC).

  YMTC is a state-owned company and China’s only storage NAND flash memory manufacturer competing with major U.S. manufacturers. Its global market share is about 5 percent. In a report released by the White House in June 2021, YMTC was identified as the “national champion” enterprise of the Chinese regime, having received $24 billion in subsidies from the Chinese government.

  NAND chips are used to store data in a wide range of electronic devices such as smartphones and personal computers, as well as in the data centers of companies such as Amazon, Facebook, and Google.

  If the NAND chip initiatives are officially issued, they will be the first time that the United States uses trade restrictions to contain China’s ability to produce non-military use memory chips, broadening the scope of protecting the U.S.’s national security and dealing a massive blow to Chins’s memory chip industry.

  On Aug. 1, U.S. senators, including Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), requested that the Department of Commerce add YMTC to the U.S. trade blacklist.

  The move could further hamper the growth of China’s semiconductor industry and protect American companies; the only two U.S. memory chip makers, Western Digital and Micron Technology. The two account for about a quarter of the NAND chip market share.

  According to a Bloomberg report, the United States is also pushing the Netherlands and Japan to stop the chipmaking equipment suppliers, ASML and Nikon, from selling lithography machines to China. The move could potentially deal a severe blow to major Chinese chipmakers such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) and Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd.

  US CHIPS Act

  On July 26, the U.S. Senate voted to advance its Chips and Science Bill aimed at boosting domestic semiconductor production and improving technological competitiveness with China.

  The bill was later passed in the U.S. House of Representatives on July 28 and signed into law by President Joe Biden on Aug. 2.

  

  The legislation will provide $280 billion in funding to prop up and kickstart domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research; the price tag is far above previous legislation that aimed to provide just $52 billion to manufacturers.

  Officially dubbed the CHIPS [Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors for America] Act of 2022, the measure would provide tens of billions of dollars in subsidies and tax breaks to technology corporations in an effort to spur new market growth, as well as funding for government-backed tech research.

  Proponents of the legislation have long said that it’s necessary in order to maintain a competitive edge with China, which is pouring money into its own domestic chip production.

  The legislation also clarifies that entities receiving U.S. government funding are prohibited from engaging in transactions involving substantial expansion of semiconductor manufacturing in China or any other foreign country of concern for at least ten years after the Act takes effect.

  These restrictions are designed to prevent chipmakers from significantly expanding the production of chips more advanced than 28nm in China within the next decade.

  Even though the 28-nanometer chips are a few generations behind today’s advanced semiconductors, they are still widely used in cars, lower-end smartphones, appliances, and more.

  Chip 4 Alliance

  The United States has also been working to persuade Asian semiconductor powerhouses to participate in its “Chip 4 alliance.”

  The U.S.-led alliance aims to strengthen cooperation in the semiconductors industry among the United States and the East Asian powerhouses of Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan to build a secure supply chain that excludes China.

  Taiwan and Japan have already agreed to participate in the Chip 4 alliance proposed by the United States this March, pending South Korea’s decision to join.

  The United States has reportedly given South Korea a deadline to decide whether it will join the “Chip 4 alliance” by Aug. 31, according to local South Korean reports citing unnamed sources in Washington.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 16:50

• CBS Censors Own Documentary After Ukraine Outraged
  CBS Censors Own Documentary After Ukraine Outraged

  CBS has censored its own documentary investigative reporting after an avalanche of pushback from supporters of Ukraine and its military. The segment highlighted that tons of weaponry shipped from the United States to the country’s military has gone missing, and sounded the alarm as billions in dollars more have been pledged by the Biden administration.

  “CBS partially retracted a documentary in which it said that shipments of weapons to Ukraine from the US had been going missing,” Insider reports Monday. “CBS tweeted on Monday that it had removed a a video promoting the documentary that included a months-old quote saying most aid was not making it to Ukraine’s front lines.” Below is the deleted tweet, with the offending line of “30% of it [US-supplied arms and munitions] reaches its final destination.”

  Terrifying how swiftly and obediently the corporate media walks back facts that are undesirable for the regime. https://t.co/SqafRmOnr0

  — Hans Mahncke (@HansMahncke) August 8, 2022

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  The segment, titled “Arming Ukraine” was published days ago, and follows on the heels of Pentagon and US intelligence officials issuing similar warnings that there are few mechanisms in place to legitimately track the arms flowing into the country. One admin official even described in April that, “we have fidelity for a short time, but when it enters the fog of war, we have almost zero. It drops into a big black hole, and you have almost no sense of it at all after a short period of time.”

  The fresh CBS reporting added to these concerns, quoting the the head of a Lithuania-based organization supplying the Ukrainian military, Jonas Ohman, who said bluntly:

  “All of this stuff goes across the border, and then something happens, kind of like 30% of it reaches its final destination.”

  Ohman stressed that actually getting the weapons to the designated Ukrainian army units involves having to navigate an array of “power lords, oligarchs [and] political players.” This also as there have been persistent reports that some weapons end up on the black market, or might possibly be moved outside Ukraine.

  Don’t worry, @CBSNews, I saved it. pic.twitter.com/jiJorgw18F

  — Viva Frei (@thevivafrei) August 8, 2022

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  A senior crisis adviser with Amnesty International also told CBS in the documentary, “What is really worrying is that some countries that are sending weapons do not seem to think that it is their responsibility to put in place a very robust oversight mechanism.”

  Officials with the Ukrainian government promptly accused the mainstream US network of playing into “Russian propaganda”.

  Along with a widespread social media backlash from Kiev’s supporters and pundits, this was apparently enough for CBS to announce it is “updating” the segment, with some of the offending lines now dropped…

  CBS claims this documentary is now “being updated” after it received a giant tsunami of trolling from those who were upset at the information being reported. The original link was taken down: pic.twitter.com/b04P5KlRC7

  — Michael Tracey (@mtracey) August 8, 2022

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  The Ukrainian government further put out a dubious claim that “all received equipment is accounted for” – this despite months of Pentagon officials warning that this isn’t the case.

  Unsurprisingly, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, has demanded that CBS News conduct an internal investigation to get to the bottom of things.

  The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, demands from CBS News to conduct an internal investigation due to the publication of disinformation that only 30% of the weapons supplied to Ukraine by allies reach the front.

  1/

  operativnoZSU pic.twitter.com/LvPUp98oAo

  — Lynn Thigpen (@Lynski_07) August 8, 2022

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  There’s of late been growing scrutiny placed on the Ukrainian side, after Russia and Putin have long been the main focus of Western mainstream media reporting. It appears that efforts to “police” western MSM reports to deflect any possible criticism of Kiev whatsoever during the war is now ramping up.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 16:25

• Markets In A World Of Pain As Most-Shorteds Squeeze Higher While TSY Curves Invert To Grotesque Levels
  Markets In A World Of Pain As Most-Shorteds Squeeze Higher While TSY Curves Invert To Grotesque Levels

  It was a wasted day in the market, one where stocks ground higher overnight and hit session highs just after the open, before a concerted wave of VWAP selling pushed stocks back to flat for the day…

  

  … with tech shares hit the hardest as buybacks appeared to be oddly missing today…

  

  … while Nvidia’s unexpected earnings preannouncement and guidance cut which sent the stock 6.30% lower, its biggest one day drop since early June did not help…

  

  … as staples, industrial and banks also dropped while energy, homebuilders and small caps traded solidly in the green…

  

  With another red hot (but far cooler than in recent months) CPI looming, bonds were anything but jittery as yields slumped all day led by the back end…

  

  … and with the 2Y roughly unchanged, the 2s10s curve inverted to a mindblowing, grotesque 46bps, the biggest inversion since the year 2000, and set to blow that out of the water in the next few days as longer yields continue to sink:

  

  No wonder hedge funds managers remain extremely bearish – the bond market is screaming not just recession but maybe even depression.

  

  According to Bloomberg, unable to find traction in stocks, hedge funds have shifted to bonds and are engaged in various bets on more flattening in futures, namely 10-year versus ultra bonds and 2-year contracts against ultra 10-years, while mortgage portfolios managed by mutual funds have done it with 2s and 10s in cash Treasuries. Real money too has engaged in assorted bets the inversion will grow.   Flatteners got the green light once again Friday after a huge beat on the July non-farm payroll report. The spread between 2s10s set lows of -44 bps Friday. That level has been surpassed today with an inversion to ~-45 bps.   The next level to target is -50 bps, which is the size of the inversion last set in August 2000 based on a weekly chart.

  The paradox of course, is that even as hedge funds turn increasingly more bearish in bond land, their stock shorts are getting blown out of the water on the back of the previously discussed buyback/CTA/retail bid, which today resulted in the 9th consecutive rise in Goldman’s most shorted tech name basket (BBG ticker SCBMSIT), matching the longest such stretch on record.

  

  The market-wide short squeezes also meant that retail investors have woken from their hibernation slumber and are once again raging and sparking short squeezes, such as those seen today in BBBY, AMC and Gamestop, all of which are sharply higher on the back of powerful squeeze-driven rallies.

  

  What is odd is that the squeeze-driven meltup comes at a time when the market is resetting its expectations of near-term rate cuts by the Fed (we doubt this will last long, especially after a miss in the next CPI report and a long-overdue collapse in the August payrolls) with STIR traders now pricing in just 5bps of rate cuts in Q1 2023 down sharply from a full rate cut as recently as two weeks ago…

  

  … however, far from winning the hawkish argument, the Fed’s day of capitulation is merely being extended, and as Charlie McElligott writes today, “the nuanced dynamic which remains clear is this: the market continues to believe that the longer the FOMC stays on this course to a higher terminal rate and runs “restrictive for longer,” that it will later then lead to higher odds of a harder slowdown thereafter” which is why the next important calendar phase, or EDH3-EDZ3 i.e., Mar23-Dec23, actually sits at its most inverted level yet, implying ~64bps of Fed cuts thereafter—aka “more hiking / more restrictive now, bigger cutting / easing later!

  

  These growing odds that the Fed will have to pivot eventually are likely behind today’s rally in oil prices…

  

  … as well as the jump in cryptos to multi-week highs (much more coming with the ETH merge looming).

  

  Meanwhile positioning – as we have covered all weekend long – continues to trade extremely, extremely short as hedge funds hope and pray that the inevitable flush that will trigger the Fed’s rate cuts comes before the relentless meltup forces them to cover their shorts!

  As Nomura notes, the bearish masses were so grossly underpositioned for a rally after anticipating an earnings wipeout and “cleanse lower” which did not materialize, perversely thanks to the magnitude of just how low those “negative revisions” expectations were—and accordingly, the pain-trade has been “higher”

  

  So with this idea that 1) prices are beginning to contract, that 2) inflation expectations are softening thereafter, and that 3) current labor strength and 4) consumer balance sheet allows for 5) “more rope” to digest this forward state of accumulated / lagged “tightening into restriction”, Nomura’s McElligott says that it all then puts us much close to the actual slowdown and “dovish Fed pivot” that will then merit the aforementioned “even larger easing” thereafter.

  And as all this happens, the relentless buying from systematics keeps lifting the overall tide: similar to Goldman, Nomura estimates that CTA Trend have bought +$60.1B of Global Equities futures in aggregate over the past 1m period on almost entirely “short covering” flows, and now showing an aggregate “Net Long” across the 13 Global equity futures futs positions since the peak of the last large “bear market rally” into start of June—including nascent “+19% Long” signals across all 3 US Equities positions

  

  Finally, adding to the bears’ pain, “Positive Delta” flows are also ripping stocks higher and further leaning into implied Volatility, which has added a ton of Gamma to Dealers who had been “Short,” but are now instead in “Long Gamma vs Spot” territory for all 3 US Equities indices, further insulating the market’s range from large price swings (“Long Gamma” = sell highs, buy lows = MM’s and Dealers as liquidity “MAKERS,” not TAKERS)

  

  

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 08/08/2022 – 16:24

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• Sperry: Lies, Damned Lies, & The January 6 Committee
  Sperry: Lies, Damned Lies, & The January 6 Committee

  Authored by Paul Sperry via The Epoch Times,

  The Select Committee to Investigate January 6 has adjourned for a well-deserved summer break. Misleading the public is exhausting work.

  

  A careful review of the official transcripts of its eight long hearings shows the committee repeatedly made connections that weren’t there, took events and quotes out of context, exaggerated the violence of the Capitol rioters, and omitted key exculpatory evidence otherwise absolving former President Donald Trump of guilt. While in some cases it lied by omission, in others it lied outright. It also made a number of unsubstantiated charges based on the secondhand accounts—hearsay testimony—of a young witness with serious credibility problems.

  These weren’t off-the-cuff remarks. Panelists didn’t misspeak. Their statements were tightly scripted and loaded into teleprompters, which they read from verbatim.

  In other words, the committee deliberately chummed out disinformation to millions of viewers of not just cable TV, but also the Big Three TV networks—ABC, CBS, and NBC—which agreed to pre-empt regular daytime and even primetime programming to air the Democrat-run hearings. And because Democrats refused to allow dissenting voices on the panel or any cross-examination of witnesses, viewers had no reference points to understand how they, along with the two Trump-hating Republicans they allowed on the committee, shaded the truth.

  This charade of an honest investigation appears to have had the desired effect. Polls show the Jan. 6 hearings hurt Trump, who plans to run again, with Independents. Unaffiliated voters have grown more likely to blame Trump for the Capitol riot and to show support for Democrats in the midterms, according to a new Morning Consult/Politico survey.

  With the November elections fast approaching, Democrats plan to hold another round of hearings next month, hoping voters pay even closer attention. With that in mind, it’s important to examine the false claims and distortions they no doubt will repeat. They are legion. Here’s the fact-checking the viewing public—and electorate—thus far has been denied.

  CLAIM: While committee chair Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) excoriated Trump for not calling off the Capitol rioters earlier, he claimed they were “savagely beating and killing law enforcement officers,” according to the transcript of his remarks from the prime-time July 21 hearing, carried live by the networks.

  FACT: No police officer was killed during the riot.

  CLAIM: During the same hearing, committee member Elaine Luria (D-Va.) faulted Trump for his “glaring silence” about the “tragic death of Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick, who succumbed to his injuries” suffered during the riot.

  FACT: The D.C. medical examiner ruled Sicknick died of “natural causes,” not injuries, well after the riot. Luria seemed to perpetuate false rumors started by the New York Times that Sicknick was struck with a fire extinguisher, a fable debunked by both the coroner and the Sicknick family.

  CLAIM: Thompson asserted Trump “summoned” a mob that was “heavily armed and angry.”

  FACT: Not a single gun was recovered in the riot. For that matter, the only gun used during the four-hour melee was fired by a Capitol police officer, who killed an unarmed rioter, Ashli Babbitt—whose name was never mentioned in any of the hearings. Despite airing endless footage of rioters breaching the Capitol and fighting police, the committee omitted footage of USCP Lt. Michael Byrd shooting Babbitt from behind a doorway without warning, which was the most violent incident that occurred that day.

  CLAIM: The committee put a former far-right extremist on as a witness to testify that rioters built “a gallows” to allegedly hang then-Vice President Mike Pence.

  FACT:  The witness, Jason Van Tatenhove, was not at the Capitol that day. He had no insider knowledge about the purpose of the flimsy wooden structure erected across from the Capitol. In any case, it was a mock gallows, not a functional one. Even the New York Times recently acknowledged it “was too small to be used.”

  CLAIM: Committee Vice Chair Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) proclaimed in the hearing curtain-raiser—also held in primetime and broadcast live by all three networks—that the panel had evidence Trump said Pence “deserves” to be hanged, a chilling claim if true. “Aware of the rioters’ chants to hang Mike Pence,” she asserted, “the president responded with this sentiment: ‘Maybe our supporters have the right idea,’ Mike Pence quote ‘deserves it.’”

  FACT: Her “evidence” turned out to be a secondhand retelling by witness Cassidy Hutchinson, a White House assistant fresh out of college who overheard a paraphrasing of what Trump may have thought about the chants, not a direct Trump quote as Cheney implied. Hutchinson later testified Trump said, “something to the effect of,” Pence “deserves it.”

  CLAIM: Hutchinson also swore she wrote a note dictated by then-White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows suggesting a more forceful White House response to the riot.

  FACT: Former White House lawyer Eric Herschmann insisted that he actually wrote the note, not Hutchinson, adding a serious chink in her credibility as the committee’s star witness. “The handwritten note that Cassidy Hutchinson testified was written by her was in fact written by Eric Herschmann on January 6, 2021,” said a spokesperson for Herschmann, who noted that Herschmann told the committee that in his deposition. The panel never informed the public that Hutchinson’s claim was disputed.

  CLAIM: Based on Hutchinson’s testimony, the committee also claimed that former White House Counsel Pat Cipollone said Trump’s plan to march to the Capitol would cause Trump officials to be “charged with every crime imaginable.”

  FACT: Cipollone did not corroborate the claim in his sworn deposition before the committee.

  CLAIM: The committee relied on another second-hand account by Hutchinson to broadcast to the world the alleged bombshell Trump tried to physically commandeer his Secret Service limo to the Capitol. “When the president got in ‘The Beast’ … he thought they were going up to the Capitol,” Hutchinson testified, relaying what she’d heard from a security official who had heard it from another source. But when Trump was told he had to go back to the White House, she continued, Trump got “irate” and said “something to the effect of ‘I’m the [expletive] president, take me to the Capitol now,’” and proceeded to “grab at the steering wheel.” She claimed he even “lunged” at a Secret Service agent inside the vehicle.

  FACT: Trump rode in a different motorcade vehicle than “The Beast” that day (an SUV, not the famous Cadillac limo), and several Secret Service agents have denied any physical altercation took place, casting further doubt on Hutchinson’s reliability as a key witness for the panel (records show she kept working for Trump in his post-presidential office for nine weeks after he left the White House, even though she claimed to be “disgusted” by what happened on Jan. 6, which she said was based on “a lie” peddled by Trump that the election was stolen). After pushback from the Secret Service, the committee leaked to CNN that a D.C. police officer “has corroborated” Hutchinson’s testimony. But when DCPD Sgt. Mark Robinson testified in the final hearing, he failed to corroborate her tale of Trump grabbing the steering wheel or lunging at a member of his security detail. “The only description I received was that the president was upset and was adamant about going to the Capitol and there was a heated discussion about that,” Robinson said.

  CLAIM: Throughout the hearings, the committee cited Trump’s speech at the Ellipse as the spark that ignited the riot. “There can be no doubt that [Trump] commanded a mob, a mob he knew was heavily armed, violent, and angry, to march on the Capitol to try to stop the peaceful transfer of power,” Thompson said in the last hearing. Emphasized Luria: “Donald Trump summoned a violent mob and promised to lead that mob to the Capitol.”

  FACT: While Trump did urge supporters to “walk” with him down to the Capitol after the rally, he specifically asked them to do so “peacefully.” The committee left that key exculpatory phrase out of the hearings. It never aired the footage or transcript of him saying, “I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.” If it had, it would have ruined the carefully crafted narrative that Trump incited violence. The omission was a critical deception.

  CLAIM: In the opening hearing, Cheney read out loud a tweet Trump sent during the riot where he said: “These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long.” She claimed Trump was justifying more violence.

  FACT: But Cheney cut off the next line where Trump called for “peace” and told supporters to leave the Capitol. “Go home with love & in peace,” the rest of the tweet said. Cheney blinded millions of viewers watching to the full picture.

  CLAIM: Cheney, who faces a Trump-endorsed challenger in her Aug. 16 primary race, kicked off the hearing with a bold charge: “President Trump summoned a violent mob and directed them illegally to march on the United States Capitol.” She vowed to show “evidence” to back it up. Thompson said they would prove that Trump was “at the center” of a “seditious conspiracy.”

  FACT: Not only did they fail to deliver any hard evidence that Trump ordered rioters to attack the Capitol as part of a conspiracy, they also began to contradict themselves as the hearings progressed. Thompson later said Trump merely “spurred” the mob and “energized” extremists, which is quite different from directing them. In an unintended revelation, one of their witnesses presented a timeline that suggested the instigators of the breaches of the Capitol had already headed to the Capitol before Trump spoke at the Ellipse. Documentarian Nick Quested testified the Proud Boys marched to the Capitol at 10:30 a.m., which meant Trump could not possibly have incited them. “I was confused to a certain extent why we were walking away from the President’s speech,” said Quested, who was embedded with the Proud Boys.

  Despite taking more than 1,000 depositions and subpoenaing more than 140,000 documents, the committee never found a smoking gun proving Trump was involved in a top-down organization of the riot. There was no coordination or conspiracy, which tracks with what the Biden Justice Department has found. Of the 874 criminal cases prosecutors have brought against Trump supporters at the Jan. 6 riot, none of them names Trump as an unindicted co-conspirator.

  But don’t take my word for it.

  Former Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a former state attorney general, told ABC News‘s “This Week” that the committee has come up short on proof of conspiracy: “They don’t have a nexus yet [between Trump and the Capitol rioters],” she asserted.

  Senior CNN legal analyst Laura Coates, moreover, said the committee “fell short in trying to establish very clearly that Donald Trump gave a coherent order that then was followed” to storm the Capitol, adding it presented “innuendo” but no proof of “a conspiracy.”

  No one excuses the real crimes committed that day. But the average American deserves to see a fuller picture of what happened, instead of the distorted one lensed by the Jan. 6 Committee, which was charged with presenting all the facts, not just ones that could hurt Republicans or pre-impeach Trump in 2024.

  If the committee really had the goods on Trump, it wouldn’t feel the need to deceive the public to the extent it has with all the embellishments, exaggerations, questionable testimony, omissions, and flat-out lies. Why not just play it straight?

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 23:30

• House Dems Say Gun Company Ads Emphasize Masculinity, Make Veiled References To 'White Supremacist' Groups
  House Dems Say Gun Company Ads Emphasize Masculinity, Make Veiled References To ‘White Supremacist’ Groups

  A new report from the House Oversight Committee says that leading gunmakers use “aggressive marketing tactics” which emphasize masculinity, and make ‘veiled references’ to white supremacist groups “like the Boogaloo Bois” (which isn’t a ‘far-right’ group at all) in order to sell guns. In short, a massive gaslighting campaign.

  “The business practices of these gun manufacturers are deeply disturbing, exploitative, and reckless,” said Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), who chairs the committee.

  

  “The [gun] industry is both creating these customers and marketing to them. And therefore, it’s propagating more of this radicalization,” said Ryan Busse, a former firearms executive who has flipped to anti-gun, and testified before the House committee last week about “the dangerous ways that AR-15s are intertwined with political radicalization.”

  According to Busse, the gunmakers are targeting “this angry, young male, politically active, conservative, aggrieved, dreams of using the AR-15 to ‘make things right in the world,” adding “In other words– people who also fall right into domestic terror groups and radicalization and everything else.”

  Yikes.

  About those “Boogaloo Bois…”

  As Insider reports:

  Some gunmakers have also appeared to make references to far-right groups.

  One example of this political targeting is an AK-47-style pistol, produced by Palmetto State Armory, which is adorned with a pattern resembling the signature Hawaiian shirts worn by the Boogaloo Bois far-right extremist group.

  Except, the “Boogaloo Bois” support BLM and don’t like Donald Trump. Swing-and-a-miss, Dems.

  

  “We are out here supporting the local BLM scene” says one of the Boogaloo Boys before marching towards the Ohio Statehouse building to protest pic.twitter.com/i7KQ3HohqD

  — Jorge Ventura Media (@VenturaReport) January 17, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “We are not a pro-Trump group” says one of the speakers for the Boogaloo Boys in front of the Ohio Statehouse pic.twitter.com/mHTMfSlLtk

  — Jorge Ventura Media (@VenturaReport) January 17, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “We hope the Proud Boys do not come here, we do not want you here,” armed boogaloo boys protesting outside Ohio Statehouse. Ohio State Highway Patrol and National Guard surround the area pic.twitter.com/99MEtOac3l

  — Lisa Bennatan (@LisaBennatan) January 17, 2021

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsMeanwhile, the Democratic committee report knocked gunmakers for ‘preying on masculinity’ by claiming that their firearms will put people “at the top of the testosterone food chain.”

  An example of this is the “Man Card” campaign that AR-15 maker Bushmaster launched in 2010, which marketed its guns to a “Man’s Man” in a “world of rapidly depleting testosterone.”

  Although the campaign ceased after the Sandy Hook massacre in 2012 where the 20-year-old gunmanwho killed 26, including 20 children aged six and seven, was aremd with a Bushmaster XM15-E2S rifle , its successes set an example for other gunmakers to follow, Busse wrote in The Atlantic. -Insider

  There are around 19.8 million AR-15 style rifles officially in circulation in the US.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 23:00

• The "Unthinkable" In US-China Crisis
  The “Unthinkable” In US-China Crisis

  Authored by Maria Ryan via Consortium News,

  One aspect of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan that has been largely overlooked is her meeting with Mark Lui, chairman of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC). Pelosi’s trip coincided with U.S. efforts to convince TSMC – the world’s largest chip manufacturer, on which the U.S. is heavily dependent – to establish a manufacturing base in the US and to stop making advanced chips for Chinese companies.

  U.S. support for Taiwan has historically been based on Washington’s opposition to communist rule in Beijing, and Taiwan’s resistance to absorption by China. But in recent years, Taiwan’s autonomy has become a vital geopolitical interest for the U.S, because of the island’s dominance of the semiconductor manufacturing market.

  

  Semiconductors – also known as computer chips or just chips – are integral to all the networked devices that have become embedded into our lives. They also have advanced military applications. Transformational, super-fast 5G internet is enabling a world of connected devices of every kind (the “Internet of Things”) and a new generation of networked weapons. With this in mind, U.S .officials began to realise during the Trump administration that U.S. semiconductor design companies, such as Intel, were heavily dependent on Asian-based supply chains to manufacture their products.

  In particular, Taiwan’s position in the world of semiconductor manufacturing is a bit like Saudi Arabia’s status in OPEC. TSMC has a 53 percent market share of the global foundry market (factories contracted to make chips designed in other countries). Other Taiwan-based manufacturers claim a further 10 percent of the market.

  As a result, the Biden administration’s 100-Day Supply Chain Review Report says, “The United States is heavily dependent on a single company – TSMC – for producing its leading-edge chips.” The fact that only TSMC and Samsung (South Korea) can make the most advanced semiconductors (five nanometres in size) “puts at risk the ability to supply current and future [US] national security and critical infrastructure needs.”

  This means that China’s long-term goal of reunifying with Taiwan is now more threatening to U.S. interests. In the 1971 Shanghai Communique and the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, the U.S. recognised that people in both mainland China and Taiwan believed that there was “One China” and that they both belonged to it. But for the U.S. it is unthinkable that TSMC could one day be in territory controlled by Beijing.

  ‘Tech War’

  For this reason, the U.S. has been trying to attract TSMC to the U.S. to increase domestic chip production capacity. In 2021, with the support of the Biden administration, the company bought a site in Arizona on which to build a U.S. foundry. This is scheduled to be completed in 2024.

  The U.S. Congress has just passed the Chips and Science Act, which provides $52 billion in subsidies to support semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. But companies will only receive Chips Act funding if they agree not to manufacture advanced semiconductors for Chinese companies.

  

  This means that TSMC and others may well have to choose between doing business in China and in the U.S. because the cost of manufacturing in the U.S. is deemed to be too high without government subsidies. This is all part of a broader “tech war” between the U.S. and China, in which the U.S. is aiming to constrain China’s technological development and prevent it from exercising a global tech leadership role.

  In 2020, the Trump administration imposed crushing sanctions on the Chinese tech giant Huawei that were designed to cut the company off from TSMC, on which it was reliant for the production of high-end semiconductors needed for its 5G infrastructure business. Huawei was the world’s leading supplier of 5G network equipment but the U.S. feared its Chinese origins posed a security risk (though this claim has been questioned). The sanctions are still in place because both Republicans and Democrats want to stop other countries from using Huawei’s 5G equipment.

  The British government had initially decided to use Huawei equipment in certain parts of the U.K.’s 5G network. The Trump administration’s sanctions forced London to reverse that decision. A key U.S. goal appears to be ending its dependency on supply chains in China or Taiwan for “emerging and foundational technologies,” which includes advanced semiconductors needed for 5G systems, but may include other advanced tech in future.

  Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan was about more than just Taiwan’s critical place in the “tech war.” But the dominance of its most important company has given the island a new and critical geopolitical importance that is likely to heighten existing tensions between the U.S. and China over the status of the island. It has also intensified U.S. efforts to “reshore” its semiconductor supply chain.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 22:30

• Here's Where Most Homeowners Are Considered Equity-Rich
  Here’s Where Most Homeowners Are Considered Equity-Rich

  Nearly half of U.S. mortgage payers own at least 50 percent equity, according to ATTOM’s Q2 2022 Home Equity & Underwater Report. This means that the balance of loans taken out against the home is less than half the estimated market value of the property.

  As Statista’s Anna Fleck notes, the share of equity-rich homeowners has been rising continuously for the past nine quarters. While it hit 34.4 percent in Q2 of 2021, it rose to 44.9 percent in Q1 of 2022, and finally to today’s figure of 48.1 percent for Q2 2022.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  According to ATTOM, of the 1,624 counties that had at least 2,500 homes with mortgages in Q2 of 2022, 49 of the top 50 equity-rich locations were in the Northeast, South and West.

  Counties with the highest share of equity-rich properties were Dukes County (Martha’s Vineyard), MA (83.2 percent equity-rich); Chittenden County (Burlington), VT (82.3 percent); Gillespie County, TX (west of Austin) (79.4 percent); Nantucket County, MA (78.6 percent) and Travis County (Austin), TX (78.6 percent).

  Meanwhile, counties with the smallest share of equity-rich homes in Q2 of 2022 included Geary County (Junction City), KS (7 percent equity rich); Vernon Parish, LA (northwest of Lafayette) (9.7 percent); Cumberland County (Fayetteville), NC (12 percent); Acadia Parish, LA (outside Lafayette) (13.2 percent) and Greenup County, KY (14 percent).

  At the same time, just 2.9 percent of mortgaged homes were considered “seriously underwater”, meaning that the balance of loans secured by the property exceeded its market value by at least 25 percent. This is down from 3.2 percent in Q1 of this year.

  Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at Attom, said in a statement:

  “After 124 consecutive months of home price increases, it’s no surprise that the percentage of equity rich homes is the highest we’ve ever seen, and that the percentage of seriously underwater loans is the lowest. While home price appreciation appears to be slowing down due to higher interest rates on mortgage loans, it seems likely that homeowners will continue to build on the record amount of equity they have for the rest of 2022.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 22:00

• 'Inflation Reduction Act' Would Make IRS Among The Largest Govt Agencies
  ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ Would Make IRS Among The Largest Govt Agencies

  Authored by Jazz Shaw via HotAir (emphasis ours),

  Tucked away in the hilariously-named “Inflation Reduction Act” that Joe Manchin has been working on with Chuck Schumer is one significant bit of spending that has been mostly flying under the radar. The measure would fund a massive expansion of the Internal Revenue Service to the tune of eighty billion dollars. And we’re not using the word “massive” in a hyperbolic fashion here. This money would go toward hiring an additional 87,000 employees for the detested agency, more than doubling the size of its workforce.

  

  As the Free Beacon points out this week, that would make the IRS larger (in terms of manpower) than the Pentagon, the State Department, the FBI and the Border Patrol combined. And what do they plan to do with that many people? Do you really need us to tell you?

  If Democrats have their way, one of the most detested federal agencies—the Internal Revenue Service—will employ more bureaucrats than the Pentagon, State Department, FBI, and Border Patrol combined.

  Under the Inflation Reduction Act negotiated by Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.), the agency would receive $80 billion in funding to hire as many as 87,000 additional employees. The increase would more than double the size of the IRS workforce, which currently has 78,661 full-time staffers, according to federal data.

  The additional IRS funding is integral to the Democrats’ reconciliation package. A Congressional Budget Office analysis found the hiring of new IRS agents would result in more than $200 billion in additional revenue for the federal government over the next decade. More than half of that funding is specifically earmarked for “enforcement,” meaning tax audits and other responsibilities such as “digital asset monitoring.”

  So this expansion would turn the IRS into an even larger beast than it already is. And we know that it’s also one of the most heavily armed agencies in the federal government. So what do they need all of those people for, not to mention all of the guns and ammo?

  Democrats always talk about the need to go after “the top one percent” and make them “pay their fair share.” It’s true that we have quite a few wealthy people in this country, but we don’t have so many that you need more than 150,000 agents to keep an eye on them. No, according to one recent study cited in the linked report, this move is being sought to generate more revenue for the federal government. And the vast majority of that new revenue will come from families earning less than $200K per year. In other words, the middle to upper-middle class. Trust us, the IRS already goes over Elon Musk’s taxes with one hundred fine-toothed combs.

  But that’s how they will be getting more revenue. By examining working class people’s tax returns under a microscope, looking for even the slightest error and then slapping them with fines and late-payment charges. And if you don’t pay up quickly enough, the IRS now has more law enforcement officers than the FBI and over five million rounds of ammunition on hand. They’ll get their money.

  So what does all of this have to do with “inflation reduction?” Don’t ask me. But the names of new laws in the country stopped meaning anything recognizable long ago, and most of them seem to actually mean the opposite of what the law is intended to do. The devil is always in the details.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 21:30

• Signs Of Ukraine Export Stability As 4 More Grain Ships Leave Ports
  Signs Of Ukraine Export Stability As 4 More Grain Ships Leave Ports

  This weekend saw four more ships carrying grain and sunflower oil depart Ukraine ports through the UN-brokered safe maritime corridor in the Black Sea, overseen by a joint coordination center in Istanbul staffed by Ukrainian, Russian, Turkish and UN officials.

  This as the Razoni cargo ship which was the first to depart Odesa carrying 27,000 tonnes of corn last week, is making its way to the Lebanese port of Tripoli, though not on time. The latest series of ships departed the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk on Sunday, and their sailing has given rise to greater hopes of export stability, BBC reports, as millions in Ukraine-grain dependent countries are facing famine conditions. 

  

  Two of the vessels are reportedly bound for Italy, while the other pair are going to China, after they are expected to dock in Turkey for international inspections under the terms of the UN safety corridor deal. In total they’ve been estimated to be laden with 160,000 tons of corn and other foodstuffs.

  The BBC writes, “Ukrainian authorities say there are good signs that the grain exports are safe, and have urged companies to return to the country’s ports.” And further: “The hope is that the exports will help ease the global food crisis while bringing in much needed foreign currency.”

  And according to further details in NBC, referring to the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul, “The JCC said late on Saturday it had authorized the departure of a total of five new vessels through the Black Sea corridor: four vessels outbound from Chornomorsk and Odesa carrying 161,084 metric tons of produce, and one inbound.”

  Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Odessa port to oversee the departure of the first grain ship under the UN deal, though he suggested Russia could be trying to sabotage the agreed upon export mechanisms. 

  Four more ships loaded with grain set off from Ukrainian ports, as Moscow and Kyiv blamed each other for a new strike at a Russian-occupied nuclear plant https://t.co/tspKONHI57

  — AFP News Agency (@AFP) August 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “It is important for us that Ukraine remains the guarantor of global food security,” he had said at the time, given a recent Russian missile strike on Odessa.

  The question of the safety of shipping crews also remains a concern, given the ships must navigate waters which have for months seen explosive mines placed off Ukraine’s coast. The Razoni’s safe passage through the Black Sea days ago was a big milestone showing the UN safety mechanisms can work.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 21:00

• 'Peak Berkeley': Protesters Halt Low-Income Housing Project
  ‘Peak Berkeley’: Protesters Halt Low-Income Housing Project

  Authored by Ed Morrissey via HotAir (emphasis ours),

  … come on, you can guess, right? Why would protesters in Berkeley halt construction for low-income and student housing?

  

  Reason’s Emma Camp reports that the demonstrators declaring that “Housing is a human right!” also demanded that new construction cease displacing the homeless that have occupied the construction area.

  No, really, and apparently they made that point violently:

  On Wednesday, protesters flooded People’s Park in Berkeley, California, chanting, “Housing is a human right, fight, fight, fight!” The reason the crowd was protesting? The University of California, Berkeley, was set to begin construction on a student housing project, which would not only house 1,100 Berkeley students at below-market rates, but also provide subsidized apartments for 125 homeless people. And the protesters want to stop this project.

  According to the Associated Press, protesters threw rocks, bottles, and glass at construction workers. They also removed several sections of the chain-link fence surrounding the park. On Wednesday, the university announced that it would pause construction of the park, citing protester violence.

  “All construction personnel were withdrawn out of concern for their safety,” Dan Mogulof, UC’s assistant vice chancellor, said in a statement to NBC News. “The campus will, in the days ahead, assess the situation in order to determine how best to proceed with construction of this urgently needed student housing project.”

  It wasn’t just slogan chanting and drum circles, either. The university shut down the construction after the crowd began assaulting the workers, the Associated Press reported — although readers have to get near the end of the report to find that out:

  After the fences were put up again early Wednesday morning, about 100 police officers, some in riot gear, were at the park as the crew began cutting down trees to the derision of onlookers who were mostly kept outside barricades.

  The police looked stoically at the onlookers amid period chants of “Power to the people!” before the majority of the protesters marched away in unison after the university stopped construction. UC Berkeley police said in a statement that protesters threw rocks, bottles, and glass at crews working at the park, which is considered aggravated assault. The department didn’t say if anyone was arrested.

  It’s not as if UC Berkeley hasn’t tried to put that “human right” ethos into action. Camp reports that the school has tried for five years to add enough student housing to alleviate a shortage so profound that some of their students have to sleep in their cars.

  After reviewing a dozen sites, UC Berkeley chose what’s been known for decades as “People’s Park,” the scene of a riot that left one dead and dozens injured from the police response. The park has become a haven for the homeless, which the school newspaper defended as a “cultural and historical landmark” the day after this protest. Rather than build 125 units for the homeless to live in safety and better comfort — let alone the 1100 fellow students that can’t afford housing in and around the very expensive area of Berkeley — the paper wants to continue to leave the grounds undisturbed as part of the argument for, um … more housing.

  And the best part of this? UC Berkeley offered to find shelter for the 50 or so homeless people in the construction zone — and nearly all of them accepted it. This protest was literally over three people who refused to leave this public space:

  Two or three homeless people who were still at the park Wednesday were offered shelter, transportation, and storage for their belongings. The university didn’t say whether they accepted the offer. Another 46 homeless people who used to live at the park previously accepted offers for shelter at a motel that is being paid for by the city of Berkeley, the university said.

  So UC Berkeley wants to provide housing to students and the homeless. The city of Berkeley is providing shelter for the homeless. And yet demonstrators violently blocked efforts to create permanent solutions to this housing crisis by declaring it a human right so precious that any construction workers helping to solve it should be terrorized. There’s only one way to explain that, as Berkeley Law professor Orin Kerr reminded me last night:

  Berkeley.

  — Orin Kerr (@OrinKerr) August 6, 2022

  Well put. 

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 20:30

• Which States Have The Death Penalty?
  Which States Have The Death Penalty?

  According to the Death Penalty Information Center, capital punishment is on the books in 27 states but several don’t actually carry it out.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, in seven states, governors or courts have officially halted executions. While governor-imposed moratoriums are in place in Oregon, California and Pennsylvania, judges have halted executions in Nevada, Montana, Tennessee and South Carolina, mostly in response to controversy around new drugs used in executions by injection. In the case of South Carolina, the state even reauthorized the use of the electric chair and the firing squad in response to growing scrutiny by pharmaceutical companies and the public around how execution drugs are sourced and used. The change has now being challenged in court while executions are on hold.

  Since 2011, the EU has severely restricted exports of the key component of U.S. drug cocktails for executions. In 2016, Pfizer was the last FDA-approved pharmaceutical company to stop selling its drugs for use in the death penalty. As a result, states started to use alternative drugs and sources. Botched executions – for example in Alabama, Ohio, Oklahoma and Arizona using the drug midazolam – received scrutiny and led to court cases.

  Execution halts were recently lifted in Kentucky, which passed a new law excluding the severely mentally ill from the death penalty, and Indiana, where a court case concluded that the state has to release data on its use of lethal drugs. While this technically allows Indiana executions to resume, it makes sourcing new drugs for executions almost impossible for the state. Many other states face the same problem in carrying out the death penalty by injection.

  Out of the remaining 20 states, another eight have not carried out an execution in at least ten years, either because of a lack of death row inmates, a lack of suitable drugs are a combination of the two. Alabama, Arizona, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas have all executed prisoners in 2022, while the last execution in Mississippi took place in 2021.

  Colorado in 2020 was the latest state that abolished capital punishment, following New Hampshire, which axed its law in 2019.

  States carry out most executions in the United States, even though their numbers have fallen recently from a high of 98 in 1999 to just 11 in 2021. Federal executions remain exceptionally rare despite several that were carried out in the twilight of the Trump presidency.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 20:00

• Pro-Tax-Hike Dem Continues To Fail To Pay His Own Taxes
  Pro-Tax-Hike Dem Continues To Fail To Pay His Own Taxes

  Authored by Jazz Shaw via HotAir (emphasis ours),

  

  The very wealthy Leona Helmsley was once famously quoted as allegedly saying, ‘We don’t pay taxes; only the little people pay taxes.’ Now we have a repeat offender in Congress who may have studied Helmsley’s philosophy at some point. The Free Beacon has discovered that Pennsylvania Democratic Congressman Matthew Cartwright is once again in trouble for being delinquent on his property taxes. Cartwright and his wife share a condo in Washington and tax records indicate that they owed penalties and interest from 2021 due to being late in paying their taxes. As a Democrat who has repeatedly voted in favor of tax increases, that probably sends a rather poor message to the working-class voters of his district who have to avoid the wrath of a constantly growing army of IRS agents. With the midterms only a few months away and the country in the middle of a recession and skyrocketing prices for just about everything, people may have taxes on their minds when they go to the polls.

  Rep. Matthew Cartwright (D., Pa.) was hit with tax penalties for late condo payments in 2021, just three years after facing media scrutiny for repeated tax delinquency.

  Cartwright last year owed $436.63 in penalties and interest, stemming from the late property tax payments on his Washington, D.C., condo he shares with his wife, according to D.C. Office of Tax and Revenue records reviewed by the Washington Free Beacon.

  The news could be a problem for the congressman, who is locked in a competitive race against Republican challenger Jim Bognet.

  Granted, we’re not talking about a huge sum of money here. Less than 500 dollars in penalties suggests that the Cartwright family probably paid most of their real estate taxes. But when you’re talking about the IRS, “most” isn’t good enough.

  Also, this isn’t the first time that Cartwright has been in trouble with the Tax Man over his Washington condo. Back in 2018, he was in somewhat deeper hot water with the city. At that point he had run up a tab of nearly $4,000 in penalties and fees over a five-year period. His opponent in that year’s election ran campaign ads highlighting the situation and nearly unseated him.

  Cartwright told reporters at that time that his tax delinquency was simply an “oversight.” He said that being in Congress is “a very busy job that I have and I’m working really hard at it.” That may be true, but do any of you think that the IRS would accept that excuse from you if you fell behind on your taxes? Color me dubious.

  Again, this isn’t a huge sum of money we’re talking about and it’s not hard to see how someone might miss a payment here or there. (Doesn’t the congressman make enough money to pay someone to handle his taxes and keep up with these details, though?) But that’s not really the point. If you are one of the people charged with creating and modifying the tax laws that everyone else in the country has to follow, you are obviously going to be under scrutiny to ensure that you follow those laws yourself. A failure to do so produces some of the worst political optics imaginable.

  And those optics may be on the congressman’s mind at the moment. He is currently in a tight race to keep his seat in November and it’s one that analysts are rating as a “tossup.” The GOP would dearly love to claw that seat back as they try to retake the majority in the house. And Cartwright’s tax headaches are the last thing his party needs to see right about now.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 19:30

• Visualizing The Top 25 US Newspapers By Daily Circulation
  Visualizing The Top 25 US Newspapers By Daily Circulation

  A few years ago, you would have unfolded your newspaper and read opinion and analysis like this.

  

  Those days are gone.

  As Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop details below, most people today – more than 8 in 10 Americans – get their news via digital devices, doing their reading on apps, listening to podcasts, or scrolling through social media feeds.

  It’s no surprise then that over the last year, only one U.S. newspaper of the top 25 most popular in the country saw positive growth in their daily print circulations.

  Based on data from Press Gazette, this visual stacks up the amount of daily newspapers different U.S. publications dole out and how that’s changed year-over-year.

  Extra, Extra – Read All About It

  The most widely circulated physical newspaper is the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) by a long shot – sending out almost 700,000 copies a day. But it is important to note that this number is an 11% decrease since 2021.

  

  These papers, although experiencing negative growth when it comes to print, are still extremely popular and widely-read publications digitally—not only in the U.S., but worldwide. For example, the New York Times reported having reached 9 million subscribers globally earlier this year.

  The one paper with increased print circulation was The Villages Daily Sun, which operates out of a retirement community in Florida. Elderly people tend to be the most avid readers of print papers. Another Florida newspaper, the Tampa Bay Times, was the worst performer at -26%.

  In total, 2,500 U.S. newspapers have shut down since 2005. One-third of American newspapers are expected to be shuttered by 2025. This particularly impacts small communities and leaves many across America in ‘news deserts.’

  The decline is relentless. Print papers are losing one out of eight subscribers every year. Their daily circulation, over 63 million at its peak in the 1980s, is now about one-third that size. Over 25% of all American newspapers have died in the past 15 years.

  As Charles Lipson observes at RealClearPolitics.com, some observers, especially conservative ones, have cast a skeptical eye on this contemporary media landscape and blamed the decline of print publications on “woke” newsrooms. They are mistaking the cart for the horse. It’s true that most newsrooms are woke, woke, woke. So are elite law firms, consulting firms, social media giants, entertainment companies, advertising firms, university faculty, and so on. Their employees, having completed their ideological training at places like Harvard, Brown, and Oberlin, tell us their pronouns in every email and wonder if Bernie Sanders might be too moderate. They dominate today’s journalism, and their dominance is reflected in their papers’ content.

  In a country that is evenly split between left and right, that tilt leaves a lot of readers unhappy, and some have undoubtedly dropped their subscriptions. Some papers also died during the pandemic, though most were already facing bleak futures. But the coronavirus and ideological bias are not the main reasons why print papers are on the road to oblivion. They are on that road because technological innovation devastated their old business model.

  This technological shift actually encourages newsroom bias. Why? Because, as online sites proliferate, readers can easily gravitate to those that reflect their views. This self-selection reinforces the sites’ incentives to tailor their content to keep those users and attract more like-minded ones.

  In this segmented market, with lots of different niches, news organizations pick their target audience. For MSNBC, that audience is progressive. The channel wants to attract more of them, not challenge their views or garner a few conservatives. By contrast, PJ Media is trying to reach more conservatives, not futilely chasing progressives. That’s Marketing 101. The problem for journalism is that this “niche” logic has distorted general-interest papers, like the Los Angeles Times. It gives free rein to ideological bias among reporters and editors, muddling their editorial perspective with “hard news” coverage.

  The logic behind this bias is powerful. All of us are attracted to sites that confirm our views and buttress them with friendly content. Social scientists call it “confirmation bias.” Now that we have so many alternative news sources, that bias drives our choices, from CNN to Fox News. And it drives those outlets to produce content their viewers find ideologically appealing, not challenging. There are some exceptions, of course, like RealClearPolitics, which aggregates and produces opinion pieces from left, right, and center and hires reporters to write the news of day straight. But this even-handedness is rare. Most outlets have slipped into comfortable ideological niches.

  The result is landscape littered with “news silos,” each appealing to its chosen market segment. The social and political effects are far-reaching. As news consumers, we have more options than ever (good), but we are increasingly insulated from opposing views (bad). The days of general-interest local papers like the Memphis Commercial-Appeal are gone. Those of big-city papers like the Chicago Tribune are fading fast. We are hunkering down in our silos, where never is heard a discouraging word, at least not about “our side.” This insularity is bound to deepen our country’s ideological divide. That’s very bad news indeed.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 19:00

• Former VP Dick Cheney Attacks Trump In Ad For Daughter’s Reelection Campaign
  Former VP Dick Cheney Attacks Trump In Ad For Daughter’s Reelection Campaign

  Authored by Matthrew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Former Vice President Dick Cheney has cut an ad for his daughter’s congressional campaign in Wyoming in which he lashed out at fellow Republicans and called former President Donald Trump a “coward” and a “threat” to the nation.

  

  The 60-second campaign ad for the embattled reelection campaign of U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) was posted on YouTube Aug 4. As of press time, it had just over 259,000 views.

  “In our nation’s 246-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump,” Dick Cheney, 81, says while wearing a white cowboy hat in a close-up camera shot. Cheney served as vice president alongside Republican President George W. Bush from 2001 to 2009.

  “He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him,” Dick Cheney said.

  “He is a coward. A real man wouldn’t lie to his supporters. He lost his election and he lost big. I know it, he knows it, and deep down, I think most Republicans know it.”

  Cheney said he was “so proud of Liz for standing up for the truth, doing what’s right, honoring her oath to the Constitution when so many in our party are too scared to do so.”

  “There is nothing more important she will ever do than lead the effort to make sure Donald Trump is never again near the Oval Office and she will succeed,” he said. His daughter appears at the end of the ad to say she approves of the message.

  Liz Cheney has become a lightning rod for criticism in Republican Party circles for her attacks on Trump while serving as vice-chair of the U.S. House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 security breach at the U.S. Capitol. The breach delayed the congressional certification of the 2020 presidential election by several hours and has been characterized by Trump critics as an insurrection and a coup attempt, a charge Trump and his supporters adamantly deny. Trump supporters have compared the committee’s actions to a witch hunt and a Soviet-era show trial.

  Although she traditionally has had a conservative voting record in Congress, Liz Cheney has antagonized Republicans in her home state, where Trump remains popular. She voted to impeach Trump after the security breach and is regularly in the national media spotlight denouncing the former president. The Wyoming Republican Party censured her after the impeachment vote and last fall declared she was no longer a member of the party.

  Read more here…

  Meanwhile, as the Babylon Bee puts it:

  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 18:30

• Entertainment Companies Start Dumping Woke Content As Viewership Tumbles
  Entertainment Companies Start Dumping Woke Content As Viewership Tumbles

  They’ll never admit to it openly, but getting woke makes companies broke.  Hollywood has been overtly progressive for decades, but this is nothing compared to the social justice invasion since 2016.  After around five years of an unprecedented leftist onslaught on the entertainment industry we are finally starting to see the rampage lose oxygen.  There’s a weakness within woke productions that the alternative media has been pointing out for a long time – They don’t make a profit because they are designed to appease a minority of leftist zennials that don’t have any money.  This is the wrong crowd to rely on for cash flow.     

  It is fair to say that the entertainment industry was partially conned.  First, there are those tantalizing ESG loans that can be easily had as long a company loudly declares their fealty to the social justice agenda.  Then, of course, there is the fact that many corporate CEOs and marketing people track Twitter trends with the ignorant assumption that Twitter is actually a reflection of the real world.  The woke mob on Twitter is amplified by the company itself, while most contrary voices are stifled and buried.  Anyone using the Twitter echo chamber as a marketing gauge would be led to believe that leftist ideology is the prevailing ideology of the nation.  It’s not even close.

  Some companies are finally realizing this fact and are taking action to reduce their exposure to woke content, or otherwise perish from loss of viewership.  Here’s the thing – Leftists could take over every platform for media distribution (they almost have), but they still can’t force the public to consume woke content.  Eventually, the loss of viewers and profits is going to hurt their bottom line.  

  Warner Media (now owned by Discovery) seems to be on the forefront of the purge of leftist content.  Under chief executive David Zaslav, Discovery is aggressively dissecting Warner to understand why a company with so many iconic brands and franchises is continually failing at the box office and on streaming.  Zaslav is now dumping far left content like the poison it is.  

  Most notably, Zaslav was behind the torching of news service CNN+ after less than a month of operation when it utterly failed to pull in subscribers.  Now, he has shelved the $100 million ‘Batgirl’ movie, a woke travesty with woke directors which test audiences hated.  He is also reportedly cutting the impending Supergirl movie, which rumors indicate was designed to replace the beloved Superman franchise with a female version played by a race swapped actress of Colombian descent (the original Supergirl is supposed to be white and blonde).      

  Another event that shocked leftists was Netflix taking an ax to “First Kill,” a lesbian vampire series that no one asked for and apparently no one watched. 

  This was after Netflix canceled a host of woke programming in the past couple of months, including a show called “Anti-Racist Baby” written by well known Critical Race Theory propagandist Ibram X. Kendi, and another animated show called “Q-Force” (Queer Force).

  

  HBO Max recently canceled their “Gordita Chronicles” after only one season; the show based on a Dominican immigrant family heavily pushed leftist narratives of victim group status and depicted America as a racist and oppressive nation.  No mention of the fact that millions of non-white people try to sneak into the US every year even though it is supposedly “bigoted.”

  The examples of purged woke programming go on and on.  This is a smart move by the entertainment media as audiences make it clear with their dollars and their viewership that they don’t want to watch leftist garbage.  However, is it too little too late?  

  Some companies like Disney have chosen to foolishly double down on woke content (after numerous box office failures) and others like Warner have lost a lot of good will from their customers.  Corporations and marketing people have long sought to entice customers by researching what audiences want.  But, the new model is to simply TELL customers what to buy, and shame audiences into compliance with a product if they don’t like it. Since 2016 the strategy of media has been to ATTACK customers in response to criticism rather than listening and learning.  This hasn’t gone over well.  Today these businesses are paying the price for their trespasses against the free market.  

  It is unlikely that they will be able to win back audiences anytime soon, if ever.  

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 18:00

• Dem Congressman's Aide Caught Impersonating FBI Agent, Violating Gun Law: Court Documents
  Dem Congressman’s Aide Caught Impersonating FBI Agent, Violating Gun Law: Court Documents

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  An aide to a congressman impersonated an FBI agent and openly carried a gun, violating the law in Washington, according to court documents.

  Sterling Carter, who worked for Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) at the time, was spotted on Nov. 14, 2020, wearing a black shirt with “Federal Agent” emblazoned across the front and back, and equipped with a full police duty belt that contained handcuffs, a pistol, two magazines, and a radio with an earpiece, according to an affidavit filed by U.S. authorities in District of Columbia court.

  When officers approached Carter to figure out his identity, he pointed to a badge on his belt and said that he was with the FBI. When asked for his credentials, Carter said he did not have them on him, and hopped in his vehicle and sped away despite being ordered to stop.

  The officers were unable to chase the man down.

  Officers and agents with the U.S. Secret Service, the U.S. Capitol Police, the FBI, and the Metropolitan Police Department launched a joint effort to figure out the identity of the man, and eventually confirmed him as Carter through contact with the seller of the t-shirt and the company from which he obtained a custom license plate.

  The owner of the property at which Carter resided and neighbors told agents that Carter was seen dressing as a member of law enforcement. However, officers found out that Carter was a staffer for a member of Congress. They also learned he did not have a concealed weapons permit or any other firearm registration certificates.

  A search of the residence turned up a Glock 19 semi-automatic firearm, magazines, a holster, cleaning gear, a receipt for siren installation, and an invoice for the shirt.

  Carter was given the option to resign or be fired, and he chose to resign, according to the affidavit. According to other documents, he started with the office in August 2019 and stepped down in January 2021.

  Carter was arrested on Jan. 29, 2021, and charged with false impersonation of a police officer and carrying a pistol without a license.

  In exchange for pleading guilty to the latter charge, the former was dropped.

  Carter was held in jail for 81 days during the case.

  A Washington judge in July 2021 sentenced him to probation and a suspended jail sentence.

  The case was first reported by the Daily Beast.

  Schneider’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

  2nd Case

  A federal case was opened in February after the FBI found Carter had forged Schneider’s signature and given himself temporary raises that yielded him approximately $80,000.

  According to an FBI agent’s affidavit, Carter, as director of operations for the congressman, would fill out payroll forms when an employee was given a raise or bonus.

  Only Schneider and his chief of staff had the authority to authorize a bonus or a raise.

  Carter would fill out one form that reflected a temporary salary increase proportionate to the bonus that was being given, and a second form that returned the employee’s salary to the original level so the bonus wouldn’t turn into a permanent pay raise.

  But Carter gave himself an unauthorized bonus and an unauthorized pay increase.

  He concealed what he had done by presenting to the chief of staff a spreadsheet containing inaccurate data.

  Carter pleaded guilty to the charge, theft of public funds, and faced up to 10 years in prison.

  Jail Time

  Prosecutors recommended a sentence of 12 to 18 months, saying the offense “constituted a serious breach of the public trust” and such a sentence “can be a warning knell for all those public officials who consider using their position in the government to steal taxpayer dollars from the United States Congress.”

  Lawyers for Carter noted his only prior conviction was for carrying a pistol without a license and argued the lack of criminal history outside of that “weighs in favor of a more modest sentence than recommended by the advisory guideline range.”

  “It is a property offense. The offense does not involve any violent acts. There is no evidence that any firearms or weapons were employed to accomplish the offense. No physical injuries were sustained by anyone. While these undeniable factors do not absolve Mr. Carter from criminal liability the nature of the offense again favors a modest sentence,” they added.

  The defendant moved for a sentence of home confinement.

  U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols, a Trump appointee, sentenced Carter in July to nine months in prison followed by 36 months of supervised release. Carter was also ordered to pay $80,491 in restitution.

  “We believe the sentence was harsher than necessary,” Robert Jenkins Jr., an attorney representing Carter, told The Epoch Times in an email, adding that Carter’s “conduct warranted punishment his sentence was more severe than many similar defendants in white collar fraud cases.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 17:30

• North Korea Willing To Send Russia 100,000 Troops For Ukraine War: Report
  North Korea Willing To Send Russia 100,000 Troops For Ukraine War: Report

  During six months of war in Ukraine there have been some instances of Russian satellite states providing “volunteer” forces – with Chechens being a foremost reported group of foreign fighters said to be in Ukraine. But Russian state media recently presented the biggest offer of foreign troops yet, reportedly from an unlikely “pariah” nation also long at odds with the United States.

  North Korea has said it is willing to send 100,000 “volunteer” troops to help Vladimir Putin execute the ongoing war in Ukraine, Business Insider has reported, citing Channel One Russia. Russian military pundit Igor Korotchenko made the claim to the state broadcaster, saying further that the DPRK military could provide a “wealth of experience with counter-battery warfare.”

  

  “If North Korea expresses a desire to meet its international duty to fight against Ukrainian fascism, we should let them,” Korotchenko was also quoted in New York Post as saying.

  This comes amid unverified Western media claims that Russia has suffered huge and unexpected numbers of casualties, to the point of being “desperate” – and reportedly being forced to provide abbreviated and ineffective training to new recruits.

  For example, this is how The Daily Mail presented the supposed Moscow-Pyongyang deal making for additional troops: 

  A desperate Vladimir Putin is considering turning to North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un for help in his invasion of Ukraine, and is willing to offer energy and grain in return for 100,000 soldiers, according to reports in Russia.

  North Korea has made it clear through ‘diplomatic channels’ that as well as providing builders to repair war damage, it is ready to supply a vast fighting force in an attempt to tip the balance in Moscow’s favor, reported Regnum news agency.

  They would be deployed to the forces of the separatist pro-Putin Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR] and Luhansk People’s Republic [LPR], both of which Kim has recently recognised as independent countries.

  …In return, grain and energy would be supplied to Kim’s stricken economy.

  The far-fetched sounding reports don’t appear to be sourced at all to North Korean state media itself, however, and the logistical challenge of North Korea actually transporting that many troops to Donbas would make it very unlikely. The “offer” may have been based on mere speculation by the prominent Russian pundit.

  Some Russian media claim North Korea has offered Moscow to dispatch up to 100,000 of its troops to fight in Russia’s special operation in Ukraine. Almost certainly this one is fake. Still, it is not impossible. /1 https://t.co/v7QvqHlBxo

  — Artyom Lukin (@ArtyomLukin) August 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The additional challenge to such an immense logistical task – which would also without doubt result in greater ratcheting of sanctions on both countries by the West – would include integrating that many foreign troops within Russian strategy and alongside its units in the middle of an active war, with no prior planning and coordination. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 17:00

• The Big Green Lie Almost Everyone Claims To Believe
  The Big Green Lie Almost Everyone Claims To Believe

  Authored by Patricia Adams and Lawrence Solomon via The Epoch Times,

  Almost every member of Congress, Democrat or Republican, pays homage to the Big Green Lie. So do all the past and remaining Conservative candidates vying to be prime minister of the UK and every candidate currently vying for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada. So does virtually all of the mainstream press. The Big Green Lie—that carbon dioxide is a pollutant—is so pervasive that even those considered skeptics—including right-wing NGOs and pundits—generally adhere to the orthodoxy, differing not in their stated belief that CO2 is a pollutant but only in how calamitous a pollutant it is.

  

  Because everyone now participates in the CO2-emissions-are-bad lie, the debate over climate policy hasn’t been over whether a CO2 problem exists but over how urgently CO2 needs to be addressed, and how it should be addressed. Do we have eight years left before Armageddon becomes inevitable or decades? Do we get off fossil fuels by building nuclear plants or wind turbines? Should we change our lifestyles to need less of everything? Or should we mitigate this evil—the view of those deemed climate minimalists—by shielding our continents from a rising of the oceans by enclosing them behind sea walls?

  With almost everyone across the political spectrum publicly agreeing that curbing CO2 is a good thing, the debate has been between those who want to do good quickly by reaching Net Zero in 2040 and sticks in the mud who want to slow down the doing of a good thing. With discourse careening down rabbit holes, almost everyone gets lost pursuing solutions to Alice-in-Wonderland delusions—and wasting trillions of dollars in the process.

  Until the 2000s, when climate change was still called global warming and the mainstream media still noticed that none of the myriad predictions of a climate catastrophe were being borne out—the polar caps weren’t melting, Manhattan wasn’t about to be submerged, malaria wasn’t infecting the northern hemisphere—many exposed man-made climate change as a hoax. The leaked Climategate emails revealed how scientists had conspired to “hide the decline” in temperatures that didn’t conform to their models. The claim that 97 percent of scientists supported the global warming theory was exposed as a fraud, as was the claim that the 4,000 scientists associated with the IPCC endorsed its report—those 4,000 hadn’t endorsed it, and most hadn’t even read it but had merely reviewed parts of the report and often disagreed with what they read.

  The claim that the “science was settled” on climate change never withstood scrutiny. Scientists around the world signed a series of petitions to dispute that claim. The 2008 Oregon Petition, spearheaded by a former president of the National Academy of Science and championed by Freeman Dyson, Albert Einstein’s successor at Princeton and one of the world’s most preeminent scientists, was signed by more than 31,000 scientists and experts who agreed that “the proposed limits on greenhouse gases would harm the environment, hinder the advance of science and technology, and damage the health and welfare of mankind. … Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.”

  

  COP26 President Alok Sharma (C) speaks during the U.N. Climate Change Conference COP 26 in Glasgow, Scotland, on Nov. 13, 2021. (Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

  What is settled is the abject failure of the three-decade-long attempt by the bureaucracies of the 195 countries of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to convince anyone other than themselves, a credulous media, and a relatively few gullible people that climate change represents an existential threat. Poll after poll over the decades show the public gives climate change short shrift when asked to rank its importance.

  A Gallup Poll released this week, which asked Americans, “What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?” found that climate change didn’t meet its criteria of the many issues worth listing. As Gallup noted, “Many parts of the nation have suffered record heat in recent weeks, and other regions have received record flooding. But a low 3% of Americans mention the weather, the environment or climate change as the nation’s top problem.” So, too, last month, where “just 1 percent of voters in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll named climate change as the most important issue facing the country …. Even among voters under 30, the group thought to be most energized by the issue, that figure was 3 percent.”

  Although most elites continue to pay lip service to the urgency of curbing carbon dioxide, their actions belie their words, whether judged by their penchant for private jet travel or their disingenuous commitment to climate-related policies. According to an International Energy Agency (IEA) announcement last week, coal is once again king: Global coal demand this year will “match the annual record set in 2013, and coal demand is likely to increase further next year to a new all-time high.” The IEA’s assessment comports with a worldwide embrace of coal that includes the European Union, until recently the world’s most zealous climate scold. The EU is now walking back its Net Zero commitments.

  In some countries, governments are not so much walking back climate policies as unabashedly kicking them out. Calling wind turbines “fans” that harm the environment and cause “visual pollution” without providing much energy, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said the government will end the subsidies and stop issuing permits for new wind projects. Israel is also set to pull the plug on the country’s wind industry, its environmental protection minister arguing that wind provides a “negligible contribution” to the country’s power system “compared to the potential for harm to nature, which is high.”

  Recognizing renewables as economic and environmental boondoggles, as Mexico and Israel have done, is a step toward puncturing the lie that a fuel that emits carbon dioxide can be sensibly replaced. The other shoe to drop is the lie that carbon dioxide-emitting fuels should be replaced.

  The fantastical claim that CO2 is a pollutant was cut out of whole cloth. The 2008 statement by the 31,000 experts—that “there is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate” is as true today as it was then, and as it always has been. No scientist anywhere at any time has shown that manmade CO2 emissions—aka nature’s fertilizer—do any harm to anything.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 16:30

• Goldman Warns Oil Is 'Down But Not Out': The Good, Bad, & Ugly In The Energy Complex
  Goldman Warns Oil Is ‘Down But Not Out’: The Good, Bad, & Ugly In The Energy Complex

  Oil prices have tumbled 25% since early June, driven by low trading liquidity and a mounting wall of worries: recession, China’s zero-COVID policy and real estate sector collapse, the US SPR release, and Russian production recovering well above expectations.

  

  However, Goldman’s Damien Courvalin believes that the case for higher oil prices remains strong, even assuming all these negative shocks play out, with the market remaining in a larger deficit than we expected in recent months.

  The bullish thesis does though require addressing the huge divergence between Brent prices, which averaged $110/bbl in June-July, and the $160/bbl Brent-equivalent global retail fuel price.

  Conceptually, two prices matter for modeling the oil market:

  (1) the retail price of fuels paid by consumers as it drives demand elasticity and

  (2) the crude price received by producers as it drives supply elasticity.

  Up until 2021, retail prices followed a stable relationship to Brent prices but this is no longer the case due to significant distortions to each of the steps required to transform crude oil coming out of the ground into fuels consumed by producers.

  

  Goldman sees three main takeaways from this:

  • The good: retail prices – while not tradable – came in close to our forecasts despite all the current macro uncertainties.

  • The bad: the disconnect between retail and Brent financial prices was much wider than expected, keeping Brent futures well below our forecast.

  • The ugly: our retail price forecast – which proved broadly accurate – did not result in enough demand destruction to end the current, unsustainable deficit.

  The much wider than expected gap between Brent physical prices (i.e. Dated Brent, not ICE Brent futures) and global retail fuel prices in Brent-equivalent terms (c.$45/bbl on average in June-July vs. our c.$25/bbl assumption) can be linked to the Russian energy and EU gas crises.

  Goldman states that growing lack of financial participation in the commodity futures market helps explain this record wide premium as well as the recent new collapse in Brent prices as well as the current extreme level of crude backwardation.

  Market liquidity plumbing new depths…

  

  Courvalin and his team continue to expect that the oil market will remain in unsustainable deficits at current prices.

  Balancing the oil market therefore still requires oil demand destruction on top of the ongoing economic slowdown, where we are more cautious than consensus.

  This requires a sharp rebound in retail fuel prices – the binding constraint to balancing the oil market – back to $150/bbl Brent equivalent prices, equivalent to US retail gasoline and diesel prices reaching $4.35 and $5.45/gal by 4Q22.

  As Goldman concludes, the unprecedented discount of Brent prices, even wider than we expected, can be explained by the worsening Russian energy crisis, as it boosts the costs of transforming crude out of the ground (Brent) into retail pump prices around the world through surging EU gas prices, freight rates, USD and global refining utilization.

  While they assume that the exceptional wedge between retail fuel and Brent futures prices will remain wider than previously expected, Goldman still expects that Brent prices will need to rally well above market forwards, with their 3Q-4Q22 forecasts now $110-125/bbl vs. $140-130/bbl previously (with their $125/bbl 2023 forecast unchanged).

  Concerns about their bullish view are warranted though – as recession risks are rising – but as Courvalin notes, reported oil demand has held up surprisingly well

  Data for our monthly reported demand sample (covering c.81% of global demand for May and 55% for June) shows demand tracking above our expectations following downward revisions in April.

  

  The demand recovery has been led by jet fuel (+1mb/d YoY for the sub-sample), with the expected weakness in gasoline demand (-0.5 mb/d, given higher price elasticity) offset by strength in industrial products potentially being pulled into the power stack.

  The prevalence of retail government interventions such as price freezes/controls (such as those in China and India, versus tax holidays in the OECD) continues to shield oil demand more than expected.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 16:00

• Senate Passes $740 Billion Tax, Climate Package — Will Go To House Next
  Senate Passes $740 Billion Tax, Climate Package — Will Go To House Next

  Update (1532ET): After much wrangling, the Democrats finally passed their sweeping economic package through the Senate on Sunday.

  

  The estimated $740 billion “Inflation Reduction Act” – far less ambitious than their original $3.5 trillion vision – next heads to the House, where its passage is a foregone conclusion. According to Axios, a vote could come as early as Friday before it heads to President Biden’s desk.

  The package includes provisions to address climate change, pharmaceutical costs, and a supercharged IRS.

  “It’s been a long, tough and winding road, but at last, at last we have arrived,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). “The Senate is making history. I am confident the Inflation Reduction Act will endure as one of the defining legislative measures of the 21st century.“

  WATCH: Kamala Harris and Senate Democrats cheer as they pass a bill to raise taxes on the middle class. pic.twitter.com/NPpPMGV7Wj

  — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  As the Washington Post notes, “Senators engaged in a round-the-clock marathon of voting that began Saturday and stretched late into Sunday afternoon. Democrats swatted down some three dozen Republican amendments designed to torpedo the legislation. Confronting unanimous GOP opposition, Democratic unity in the 50-50 chamber held, keeping the party on track for a morale-boosting victory three months from elections when congressional control is at stake.”

  And as Axios reports,

  The Senate returned to the Capitol Saturday afternoon, and began voting late Saturday night and into Sunday on a series of amendments — part of the process known as “vote-a-rama.”

  • Senate Republicans offered dozens of amendments aimed at minimizing the bill, including stripping out funding for the Internal Revenue Service and eliminating COVID-19-related school mandates.
  • Democrats held firm in their unity, with the help of Harris, of preserving the core elements of the package and voting down each GOP amendment.

  .  .  .

  The bill includes:

  • $370 billion for climate change – the largest investment in clean energy and emissions cuts the Senate has ever passed.
  • Allows the federal health secretary to negotiate the prices of certain expensive drugs for Medicare.
  • Three-year extension on healthcare subsidies in the Affordable Care Act.
  • 15% minimum tax on corporations making $1 billion or more in income. The provision offers more than $300 billion in revenue.
  • IRS tax enforcement.
  • 1% excise tax on stock buybacks.

  Drilling down on the climate portion – Axios’ Andrew Freedman writes:

  • This includes tax incentives to manufacture and purchase electric vehicles, generate more wind and solar electricity and support fledgling technology such as direct air capture and hydrogen production. 
  • Independent analyses show the bill, combined with other ongoing emissions reductions, would cut as much as 40% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, short of the White House’s 50% reduction target. However, if enacted into law, it would reestablish U.S. credibility in international climate talks, which had been flagging due in part to congressional gridlock. 
  • As part of Democrats’ concessions to Sen. Manchin, the bill also contains provisions calling for offshore oil lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Alaska, and a commitment to take up a separate measure to ease the permitting of new energy projects. 

  *  *  *

  Senate Democrats late on Aug. 6 advanced a mammoth spending bill on climate and energy, health care, and taxes, after overcoming unanimous Republican opposition in the evenly divided chamber.

  

  The procedural vote to advance the Democratic bill – which authorizes over $400 billion in new spending – was 51–50 after Vice President Kamala Harris arrived at the Capitol to cast a vote, breaking the deadlock in the Senate over the measure that Democrats say would reform the tax code, lower the cost of prescription drugs, invest in energy and climate change programs, all while lowering the federal deficit.

  The vote means that senators will have 20 hours to debate on the measure, followed by a vote-a-rama, a marathon open-ended series of amendment votes that has no time limit. After that, the bill will head to a final vote. The measure is anticipated to pass the chamber as early as this weekend.

  The House, where Democrats have a majority, could give the legislation final approval on Aug. 12, when lawmakers are scheduled to return to Washington.

  The vote came after the Senate parliamentarian – the chamber’s nonpartisan rules arbiter – gave a thumbs-up to most of the Democrats’ revised 755-page bill.

  But Democrats had to drop a significant part of their plan for lowering prescription drug prices, Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough said.

  The provision would have essentially forced companies not to raise prices higher than inflation. MacDonough said Democrats violated Senate budget rules with language in the bill imposing hefty penalties on drugmakers who raise their prices beyond inflation in the private insurance market.

  As Mimi Nguyen Ly details at The Epoch Times, while the bill’s final costs are still being determined, it includes about $370 billion on energy and climate programs over the next 10 years, and about $64 billion to extend subsidies for Affordable Care Act program for federal subsidies of health insurance for three years through 2025.

  It also seeks generate about $700 billion in new revenue over the next 10 years, which would leave roughly $300 billion in deficit reduction over the coming decade, which would represent just a tiny proportion of the next 10 year’s projected $16 trillion in budget shortfalls.

  A large portion of the $700 billion—an estimated $313 billion—is expected to be generated by increasing the corporate minimum tax to 15 percent, while the remaining amounts include $288 billion in prescription drug pricing reform and $124 billion in Internal Revenue Service tax enforcement.

  According to the current version of the bill, the new 15 percent minimum tax would be imposed on some corporations that earn over $1 billion annually but pay far less than the current 21 percent corporate tax. Companies buying back their own stock would be taxed 1 percent for those transactions, swapped in after Sinema refused to support higher taxes on private equity firm executives and hedge fund managers. The IRS budget would be increased to strengthen its tax collections.

  The White House said in a statement of administrative policy on Aug. 6 that it “strongly supports passage” of the bill.

  “This legislation would lower health care, prescription drug, and energy costs, invest in energy security, and make our tax code fairer—all while fighting inflation and reducing the deficit,” the statement reads.

  “This historic legislation would help tackle today’s most pressing economic challenges, make our economy stronger for decades to come, and position the United States to be the world’s leader in clean energy.”

  Republicans say the legislation is simply an alternate, dwindled version to the Democrat’s earlier Build Back Better bill—a multitrillion-dollar social spending package that was a major agenda of President Joe Biden—that Democrats have now dubbed the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.”

  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Democrats “are misreading the American people’s outrage as a mandate for yet another reckless taxing and spending spree.” He said Democrats “have already robbed American families once through inflation and now their solution is to rob American families yet a second time.”

  “There is no working family in America whose top priorities are doubling the size of the IRS and giving rich people money to buy $80,000 electric cars,” McConnell said in a separate statement on Twitter.

  “Americans want Washington to address inflation, crime, and the border—not another reckless liberal taxing and spending spree.”

  Democrats have said the measure would “address record inflation by paying down our national debt, lowering energy costs, and lowering healthcare costs,” but Republicans have criticized the measure as having no potential other than to make matters worse, nicknaming the legislation “Build Back Broke,” in part because the bill would fulfill many parts of Biden’s Build Back Better agenda.

  “The time is now to move forward with a big, bold package for the American people,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

  “This historic bill will reduce inflation, lower costs, fight climate change. It’s time to move this nation forward.”

  But not every Democrat is buying what Chuck is selling…

  

  As John Solomon reports at JustTheNews.com, Sen. Bernie Sanders, the former presidential candidate and proud socialist, on Saturday attacked President Joe Biden‘s Inflation Reduction Act for failing to live up to its name, after the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office declared it would have a minimal impact on surging prices.

  “I want to take a moment to say a few words about the so-called Inflation Reduction Act that we are debating this evening,” Sanders said just after voting with Democrats to advance the bill to debate on the Senate floor.

  “I say so-called because according to the CBO and other economic organizations that have studied this bill, it will in fact have a minimal impact on inflation.“

  CBO declared this week that the $740 billion piece of legislation would only affect inflation by 0.1% in either direction.

  “I don’t find myself saying this very often. But on that point, I agree with Bernie,” Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., told Insider.

  Overall, economic analysts are divided on the measure, with some having predicted that the bill will worsen inflation and lead to stagnation in growth.

  As Will Cain explained in an excellent monologue reality check, “look at the name of the bill, whatever it is, you can be sure the legislation will do the opposite.”

  Finally, as Goldman details in a new notes, the net fiscal impact of these policies continues to look very modest, likely less than 0.1% of GDP for the next several years…

  

  While the final outcome may still yet differ in details, the fiscal impact is likely to be similar.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 15:32

• Economic Slowdown Now, Recession Coming In 2023
  Economic Slowdown Now, Recession Coming In 2023

  Authored by Lance Roberts via The Epoch Times,

  Economic slowdown but no recession! That message comes from the latest employment report, service sector data, and Federal Reserve.

  “We’re not in a recession right now. We do have these two-quarters of negative GDP growth. To some extent, a recession is in the eyes of the beholder. With all the job growth in the first half of the year, it’s hard to say there’s a recession. With a flat unemployment rate at 3.6 percent, it’s hard to say there’s a recession,” stated James Bullard, St. Louis Federal Reserve president.

  Such a statement certainly belies much of the economic consensus that two-quarters of negative economic growth constitutes a recession. As shown, the latest GDP report indeed met that measure.

  

  Source: St Louis Federal Reserve, Refinitiv Chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com

  However, as stated, some indicators suggest the economy is in a slowdown but not yet in a recession. For example, our composite Institute of Supply Management (ISM) survey is still in expansionary territory. Since services make up about 80 percent of the economy today, there is currently support for economic growth. However, the data trend is negative and suggests the view of an economic slowdown.

  

  Source: St Louis Federal Reserve, Refinitiv Chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com

  Employment also remains extremely strong. With the unemployment rate near historic lows, it suggests there is currently not a recession underway. However, historically low unemployment rates are pre-recessionary and reverse quickly as a recession takes hold.

  

  Source: St Louis Federal Reserve, Refinitiv Chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com

  While neither measure suggests the economy has entered a recession yet, it does not preclude one from occurring. Many indicators suggest individuals “feel” like the economy is in a recession, such as our composite consumer sentiment index. Historically, a recessionary environment was present when consumer confidence and expectations declined below 80.

  

  Source: St Louis Federal Reserve, Refinitiv Chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com

  Notably, given short-term economic dynamics, we could see a bump in economic growth owing to back-to-school spending in Q3 and holiday shopping in Q4.

  However, I suspect that as the Fed continues its aggressive mission to combat inflationary pressures, a recession in 2023 is likely.

  The Fed’s Dilemma

  While James Bullard and others currently direct the monetary policy regime, suggesting they can quell inflation with only an economic slowdown, history suggests otherwise. The Fed makes its policy decisions based on lagging economic data.

  For example, as noted previously, the Fed is currently basing its ability to continue hiking based on solid employment rates. However, history is clear that as the Federal Reserve hikes rates, there is a point where “something breaks” and low unemployment rates soar higher.

  

  Source: St Louis Federal Reserve, Refinitiv Chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com

  That breaking point occurs because as the Federal Reserve hikes rates, the real-time economy adjusts to monetary policy changes. However, data such as employment and, importantly, inflation is comprised of data that can take several months to catch up to the actual economy.

  Notably, more than 40 percent of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is Home Owners Equivalent Rent. It takes roughly three months for pricing changes to be accurately reflected in the data. As the Fed continues to hike rates to combat inflation, the actual impact on consumers and economic activity is not reflected in CPI on a timely basis. It creates the possibility of the Fed over-tightening monetary policy, turning an economic slowdown into a more severe economic contraction.

  Of course, this is precisely what history tells us will happen.

  

  Source: St Louis Federal Reserve, Refinitiv Chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com

  Monetary supply also tells us the Fed is likely making a mistake with its current aggressive stance on inflation. As discussed recently, inflation is the consequence of restricted supply owing to the economic shutdown and increased demand from “stimulus” checks. The massive surge in M2 money supply has reversed and has about a nine-month lead on inflation.

  

  Source: St Louis Federal Reserve, Refinitiv Chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com

  While the Fed is hiking rates to quell inflation, the contraction of the money supply is doing the job for them.

  Driving With the Rearview Mirror

  There is little doubt we are currently amidst an economic slowdown. With the Federal Reserve focused on combating inflationary pressures by tightening monetary policy, thereby slowing economic demand, logic suggests that current economic data trends will continue to decline. Of course, the only difference between an economic slowdown and a recession is whether the readings can remain above zero.

  As the Fed continues to hike rates, each hike takes roughly nine months to work its way through the economic system. Therefore, the rate hikes from March 2020 won’t show up in the economic data until December. Likewise, the Fed’s subsequent and more aggressive rate hikes won’t be fully reflected in the economic data until early- to mid-2023. As the Fed hikes at subsequent meetings, those hikes will continue to compound their effect on a highly leveraged consumer with little savings through higher living costs. We have shown previously that the consumer is exceptionally unprepared for such an outcome.

  

  Source: St Louis Federal Reserve, Refinitiv Chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com

  Given the Fed manages monetary policy in the “rear view” mirror, more real-time economic data suggest the economy is rapidly moving from economic slowdown toward recession. The signals are becoming clearer from inverted yield curves to the six-month rate of change of the Leading Economic Index.

  

  Source: St Louis Federal Reserve, Refinitiv Chart: RealInvestmentAdvice.com

  The media and the White House will likely proclaim victory by stating the first two quarters of 2022 were not a recession but only an economic slowdown. However, given the lag effect of changes to the money supply and higher interest rates, indicators are pretty clear recession risk is very probable in 2023.

  From an investment standpoint, it suggests the current market rally is not the beginning of a new bull market. Instead, investors are likely being lured into the clutches of a bear market rally that will probably have rather disappointing outcomes.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 15:30

• World Food Prices Crash The Most Since 2008
  World Food Prices Crash The Most Since 2008

  Central banks and mainstream economists were entirely wrong about the narrative that inflation is “transitory,” but after more than a year of raging inflation to four-decade highs, there are signs that current price spikes are waning. 

  One of those price declines is the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) index of world food declined by 8.6% to 140.9 points in July, marking the fourth consecutive month of declines since hitting an all-time high in March. However, the international price of a basket of commonly-traded food commodities is still 13.1% higher than in July 2021. 

  As shown below, the UN food index recorded the largest monthly decline since the summer of 2008. 

  

  “The decline in food commodity prices from very high levels is welcome, especially when seen from a food access viewpoint; however, many uncertainties remain, including high fertilizer prices that can impact future production prospects and farmers’ livelihoods, a bleak global economic outlook, and currency movements, all of which pose serious strains for global food security,” said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero.

  Besides slumping food prices, inflation expectations alongside commodity prices (fuel prices) have recently eased and come as recession risks across G10 markets are pulled forward (the US has fallen into a technical recession) as central banks raise interest rates aggressively to fight the inflation storm. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 08/07/2022 – 15:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• The Growing Threat From North Korea
  The Growing Threat From North Korea

  Authored by Judith Bergman via The Gatestone Institute,

  • China’s urging “flexibility” on North Korea appears to coincide with the Chinese Communist Party’s ambitions in the region.

  • “According to unclassified intelligence reports to Congress, there are five key Chinese banks and a specially created holding company that funds the North Korean missile and nuclear technology programs.” — Peter Huessy, Real Clear Defense, August 10, 2017.

  • China’s main strategic concern when it comes to the Korean peninsula is apparently to end the US presence there and keep it out of US hands so that China can finally establish itself as the hegemon in the region.

  • North Korean escalation in the form of increased missile tests and resumption of ICBM and nuclear tests to pressure the US to make concessions — in the shape of troop withdrawals from South Korea — would play directly into the hands of China, enabling it to replace the US and establish itself as the primary power in the region.

  • “They are looking to take actions, which we believe are fundamentally destabilizing, as a way to increase pressure.” — US official in Washington to journalists, France24.com, January 31, 2022.

  • China, however, seems to have no interest in cooperating with the US on North Korea. Attempts to secure “Beijing’s cooperation” to build necessary economic leverage over North Korea are therefore exercises in futility.

  • China clearly cannot be relied on voluntarily to use its leverage over North Korea to persuade Kim Jong-un to give up his missile and nuclear program. To resolve the impasse, it is necessary to employ means that will leave China no choice other than to cooperate on North Korea.

  • A highly efficient way of doing that, Gordon Chang has suggested, would be to cut off the large Chinese banks and businesses that support the North Korean missile and nuclear technology from the global financial system by designating them a “primary money laundering concern” under Section 311 of the Patriot Act.

  • “In short, American policymakers know how to get China to begin acting responsibly.” — Gordon G. Chang, Newsweek, May 10, 2021.

  • The question now is — will the Biden administration muster the political will to designate those large Chinese banks under Section 311 of the Patriot Act?

  North Korea, despite a UN Security Council ban on its ballistic missile tests, continued to develop its nuclear and missile programs in 2021, according to a new UN report. In January 2022 alone, North Korea launched a record 11 missiles, including two hypersonic missiles and the first firing since 2017 of a Hwasong-12 mobile intermediate-range ballistic missile which is within reach of US territory with its estimated range of 4,500 kilometers. In 2017, North Korea tested the Hwasong-15, which has an estimated range of 8,500-13,000 kilometers.

  

  Both US and South Korean officials expressed concern that the Hwasong-12 test indicated that North Korea would resume testing of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and nuclear weapons.

  In addition, North Korea reportedly has an underground military base, used for keeping ICBMs, just 25 kilometers from its border with China. According to analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the location was chosen to deter preemptive strikes by the US against the base, to avoid provoking Beijing. “The position near the Chinese border acts as a potential deterrent to a pre-emptive strike that might impinge on Chinese security equities,” noted Victor Cha, a North Korea expert at the CSIS.

  “In today’s world where many countries waste time dealing with the United States with submission and blind obedience, there’s only our country on this planet that can shake the world by firing a missile with the U.S. mainland in its range,” North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “There are more than 200 countries in the world, but only a few have hydrogen bombs, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and hypersonic missiles.” North Korea has said in the past that the Hwasong-12 can carry a “large-size heavy nuclear warhead.”

  Eight Security Council members — the United States, Albania, Brazil, France, Ireland, Norway, the United Arab Emirates and Britain — and Japan described North Korea’s Hwasong-12 launch as a “significant escalation” that “seeks to further destabilize the region.”

  China, on the other hand, urged “flexibility” on North Korea. “They should come up with more attractive and more practical, more flexible approaches, policies and actions in accommodating concerns” of North Korea, Chinese UN Ambassador Zhang Jun said. “The key in solving this issue is already in the hands of the United States.”

  China’s urging “flexibility” on North Korea appears to coincide with the Chinese Communist Party’s ambitions in the region. North Korea’s recent actions were possibly even encouraged by China.

  “China, after all, exercises great influence over the North’s ruling Kim family and can, as a practical matter, require the North Koreans to do what it wants,” wrote China expert Gordon G. Chang.

  According to some analysts, China has been instrumental in bringing about North Korea’s nuclear weapons’ program. According to Peter Huessy, director of strategic deterrent studies at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies:

  “The North Korean nuclear program started in 1965 with the Soviet construction of a 5-megawatt nuclear reactor. But it was Chinese and Pakistani assistance that enabled the North to begin construction on a 50-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon, and a secret reprocessing facility, in the mid-1980s. North Korean construction of a covert uranium enrichment facility around 2000 and North Korea’s first test explosion of a nuclear device in 2006 were likely enabled by assistance from the Pakistani A.Q. Khan, and based on uranium enrichment and nuclear design plans originally obtained from China.”

  Crucially, according to Huessy:

  “According to unclassified intelligence reports to Congress, there are five key Chinese banks and a specially created holding company that funds the North Korean missile and nuclear technology programs.”

  China’s main strategic concern when it comes to the Korean peninsula is seemingly to end the US presence there and keep it out of US hands so that China can finally establish itself as the hegemon in the region. There are currently approximately 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea. That is the third-largest military presence abroad for the US after Japan and Germany. North Korean escalation in the form of increased missile tests and resumption of ICBM and nuclear tests to pressure the US to make concessions — in the shape of troop withdrawals from South Korea — would play directly into the hands of China, enabling it to replace the US and establish itself as the primary power in the region.

  “North Korea will likely escalate pressure on the United States by taking a series of steps toward an ICBM test,” said Cheon Seong-whun, a former head of the Korea Institute for National Unification, a government-funded research institute in Seoul.

  “They are looking to take actions, which we believe are fundamentally destabilizing, as a way to increase pressure,” a US official in Washington told journalists.

  In response to North Korea’s test of the Hwasong-12, the US has called for direct talks with the country “without preconditions.”

  “We believe it is completely appropriate and completely correct to start having some serious discussions… It requires a response. You will see us taking some steps that are designed to show our commitment to our allies … and at the same time we reiterate our call for diplomacy. We stand ready and we are very serious about trying to have discussions that address concerns on both sides.”

  If the Biden administration wants to resolve the growing North Korean threat, it will have to start doing things differently. It will have to abandon “the same basic North Korea strategy that Washington has used for over two decades,” as pointed out by Markus Garlauskas, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, who served nearly 20 years in the U.S. government dealing with North Korea.

  “This strategy has focused on achieving a ‘strategic decision’ from Pyongyang to negotiate an end to its nuclear weapons program and on securing Beijing’s cooperation to build the necessary economic leverage.”

  China, however, seems to have no interest in cooperating with the US on North Korea. Attempts to secure “Beijing’s cooperation” to build necessary economic leverage over North Korea are therefore exercises in futility. A new strategy must finally acknowledge China’s role as backer of North Korea for the Chinese Communist Party’s strategic purposes in the region. China clearly cannot be relied on voluntarily to use its leverage over North Korea to persuade Jong-un to give up his missile and nuclear program. To resolve the impasse, it is necessary to employ means that will leave China no choice other than to cooperate on North Korea. A highly efficient way of doing that, Gordon Chang has suggested, would be to cut off the large Chinese banks and businesses that support the North Korean missile and nuclear technology from the global financial system by designating them a “primary money laundering concern” under Section 311 of the Patriot Act.

  “And as big as Bank of China is—it is the world’s fourth-largest bank, as measured by assets—it is surely not the largest Chinese bank cleaning up cash for Kim,” Gordon Chang wrote.

  “That honor may belong to China’s—and the world’s—largest bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Moreover, the remaining two of the Big Four, the world’s second- and third-largest banks, have also been implicated in handling dirty money for the Kims. In short, American policymakers know how to get China to begin acting responsibly.”

  The question now is – will the Biden administration muster the political will to designate those large Chinese banks under Section 311 of the Patriot Act?

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 23:30

• The Cost Of Mining Bitcoin In 198 Different Countries
  The Cost Of Mining Bitcoin In 198 Different Countries

  It takes an estimated 1,449 kilowatt hours (kWh) of energy to mine a single bitcoin. That’s the same amount of energy an average U.S. household consumes in approximately 13 years.

  Given the high amount of energy needed to mine bitcoin, it can be a costly venture to get into. But, as Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang details below, exact prices fluctuate, depending on the location and the cost of electricity in the area.

  Where are the cheapest and most expensive places to mine this popular cryptocurrency? This graphic by 911 Metallurgist provides a snapshot of the estimated cost of mining bitcoin around the world, using pricing and relative costs from March 23, 2022.

  

  How Does Bitcoin Mining Work?

  Before diving in, it’s worth briefly explaining the basics of bitcoin mining, and why it requires so much energy.

  When someone mines for bitcoin, what they’re really doing is adding and verifying a new transaction record to the blockchain—the decentralized bank ledger where bitcoin is traded and distributed.

  To create this new record, crypto miners need to crack a complex equation that’s been generated by the blockchain system.

  Potentially tens of thousands of miners are racing to crack the same code at any given time. Only the first person to solve the equation gets rewarded (unless you’re part of a mining pool, which is essentially a group of miners who agree to combine efforts to increase their chances of solving the equation).

  The faster your computing power is, the better your chances are of winning, so solving the equation first requires powerful equipment that takes up a lot of energy.

  The Costs and Profits of Mining Bitcoin in 198 Countries

  Across the 198 countries included in the dataset, the average cost to mine bitcoin sat at $35,404.03, more than bitcoin’s value of $20,863.69 on July 15, 2022. Though it’s important to note that fluctuating energy prices, and more or less miners on the bitcoin network, constantly change the necessary energy and final cost.

  Here’s a breakdown of what the cost to mine one bitcoin in each country was in March 23, 2022, along with the potential profit after accounting for mining costs:

  Venezuela ranks as the number one most expensive country to mine bitcoin. It costs a whooping $246,530.74 to mine a single bitcoin in the South American country, meaning the process is far from profitable. Energy costs are so expensive in the country that miners would be out $225,667.05 for just one bitcoin.

  

  On the opposite end of the spectrum, the cheapest place to mine bitcoin is in Kuwait. It costs $1,393.95 to mine a single bitcoin in Kuwait, meaning miners could gain $19,469.74 in profits.

  

  The Middle Eastern country has some of the cheapest electricity in the world, with one kWh costing an average of just 3 cents. For context, the average cost of one kWh in North America is 21 cents.

  The Race is On

  Despite the steep costs of bitcoin mining, many people believe it’s worth the upfront investment.

  One thing that makes bitcoin particularly appealing is its finite supply—there are only 21 million coins available for mining, and as of this article’s publication, more than 19 million bitcoin have already been mined.

  While the price of bitcoin (BTC) is notorious for its volatility, its value has still grown significantly over the last decade. And if cryptocurrencies become mainstream as many people believe they will, this could boost the price of bitcoin even further.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 23:00

• Despite Strict Gun Control, California Had The Most Active Shooter Incidents In 2021: FBI
  Despite Strict Gun Control, California Had The Most Active Shooter Incidents In 2021: FBI

  Authored by Jason Blair via The Epoch Times,

  In a report issued by the FBI, California ranked first for the most active shooter incidents in 2021. The state has been in the top spot in three of the past five years.

  

  According to the study, a total of 61 active shooter incidents occurred across 30 states last year with 103 people killed and 140 wounded. This is up from 40 incidents and 38 killed in 2020.

  California had 6 incidents that claimed the lives of 19 people with 9 wounded. Texas and Georgia each had 5.

  California, which has some of the strictest gun laws, saw 0.015 shootings per 100,000 people. Texas, which has very unrestrictive state gun laws, had nearly the same at 0.0167 per 100,000 people. Georgia had 0.045 per 100,000 people.

  Criminal attorney Arash Hashemi told NTD, a sister outlet of The Epoch Times, that in his opinion there’s no easy answer to how gun laws should be handled.

  “We need both sides to sit down and listen to what’s going on. I know one side says we need to ban guns, one side said there would be no regulation. But there needs to be a meeting of the minds in the middle,” Hashemi said.

  California is moving ahead to implement more gun restrictions. The new state Senate Bill 918, which is currently on its way through the legislature, would ban the carrying of guns in most public areas, regardless of whether someone has a carry license or not.

  However Hashemi suggested a slightly different approach. He said the Second Amendment can’t be violated, but he thinks certain people should be restricted from owning a firearm.

  “I think California needs to implement these background checks but at the same time make sure they don’t infringe on people’s rights to bear arms,” Hashemi said.

  He said vetting gun buyers for red flags like mental illness or psychiatric medication is important.

  He added that the importance of the Second Amendment is to give the civilians of the United States a check on the government.

  The greatest number of casualties and injuries at an active shooter incident in 2021 was 15, at both a FedEx center in Indiana and a Kroger grocery store in Tennessee.

  June had the most with 12, and December had the least with 1.

  The FBI defines an active shooter as one or more people engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area. The 2021 report is limited to these incidents and does not include other gun-related situations like self-defense, drug violence, or gang violence.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 22:30

• Christian High School In Manhattan Hosted Mandatory Drag Show In Place Of Church Service
  Christian High School In Manhattan Hosted Mandatory Drag Show In Place Of Church Service

  Would leftists actually target a Christian school church service with a sexualized drag show?  Of course they would.  

  Students at Manhattan’s Grace Church High School say they were supposed to attend Wednesday church services on April 27th, 2021 when they were greeted with a surprise substitution show featuring a dancing drag queen in orange go-go boots called “Brita Filter” (the symbolism of the stage name is unknown).  The event was sponsored by “Spectrum,” the school’s LGBT support club and members of the school faculty.

  The students allege they felt pressured to participate and had to pretend they enjoyed the event.  Some Spectrum club members tapped teens on the shoulders and ordered them to stand for the show, while others handed out pride stickers and stated “Take one or you’re homophobic.”  Other kids got involved in the show and began twerking in the chapel.

  After the dancing was over, Brita discussed being “pansexual.”

  

  Said one student, “It’s notable that this person consistently called themselves fabulous and talented and beautiful. Not just once or twice, but over and over this person reassured themselves that way…”

  The inherent narcissism of the pride movement is easily observed.  

  The school website details their pride related programs and Brita Filter’s performance. 

  Beyond the obvious affront to Christian doctrine, the trend of sexualized drag performances for kids sponsored by schools has become an epidemic.  Numerous schools over the past year have been caught secretly hosting drag queen shows without asking parents for permission.  The wider media exposure of these events has been met with attacks from leftists, claiming that there is no sexualization agenda in schools.       

  The gaslighting has been rampant and the goal behind trans indoctrination and school drag shows is openly admitted:  It’s about political activism and normalization.

  On TikTok, Brita bragged about the event:

  “I literally went to church to teach the children today…A Catholic High School here in NYC invited me to their Pride Chapel. Visibility matters and I’m so honored to have had the chance to talk to you about my work as a LGBTQ+ Drag Queen Activist.”

  Grace Church Schools plan to introduce pride events to younger middle schoolers as well, with lessons on the “history of the pride flag” and what it symbolizes. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 22:00

• Sowell: The Point Of No Return
  Sowell: The Point Of No Return

  Authored by Dr. Thomas Sowell,

  This is an election year. But the issues this year are not about Democrats and Republicans. The big issue is whether this nation has degenerated to a point of no return – a point where we risk destroying ourselves, before our enemies can destroy us.

  

  If there is one moment that symbolized our degeneration, it was when an enraged mob gathered in front of the Supreme Court and a leader of the United States Senate shouted threats against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, saying “You won’t know what hit you!”

  There have always been irresponsible demagogues. But there was once a time when anyone who shouted threats to a Supreme Court Justice would see the end of his own political career, and could not show his face in decent society again.

  You either believe in laws or you believe in mob rule. It doesn’t matter whether you agree with the law or agree with the mob on some particular issue. If threats of violence against judges — and publishing where a judge’s children go to school — is the way to settle issues, then there is not much point in having elections or laws.

  There is also not much point in expecting to have freedom. Threats and violence were the way the Nazis came to power in Germany. Freedom is not free. If you can’t be bothered to vote against storm-trooper tactics — regardless of who engages in them, or over what issue — then you can forfeit your freedom.

  Worse yet, you can forfeit the freedom of generations not yet born.

  Some people seem to think that the Supreme Court has banned abortions. It has done nothing of the sort.

  The Supreme Court has in fact done something very different, something long overdue and potentially historic. It has said that their own court had no business making policy decisions which nothing in the Constitution gave them the authority to make.

  Get out a copy of the Constitution — and see if you can find anything in there that says the federal government is authorized to make laws about abortion.

  Check out the 10th Amendment, which says that the federal government is limited to the specific powers it was granted, with all other powers going to the states or to the people.

  Why do we elect legislators to do what the voters want done, if unelected judges are going to make up laws on their own, instead of applying the laws that elected officials passed?

  This is part of a very long struggle that has been going on for more than 100 years.

  Back in the early 20th century, Progressives like President Woodrow Wilson decided that the Constitution put too many limits on the powers they wanted to use.

  Claiming that it was nearly impossible to amend the Constitution, Progressives advocated that judges “interpret” the Constitutional limits out of the way.

  This was just the first in a long series of sophistries.

  In reality, the Constitution was amended 4 times in 8 years — from 1913 through 1920 — during the heyday of the Progressive era.

  When the people wanted the Constitution amended, it was amended. When the elites wanted the Constitution amended, but the people did not, that is called democracy.

  Another great sophistry was using the federal government’s authority to regulate interstate commerce to call all sorts of other things interstate commerce. In 1995, elites were shocked when the Supreme Court ruled — 5 to 4— that carrying a gun near a school was not interstate commerce.

  States had a right to ban carrying a gun near a school, and most of them did. But the federal government had no such authority. Nor did the Constitution give the federal government the right to make laws about abortion, one way or the other.

  What both state and federal laws do have the right to stop is threats against judges and their families.

  This is not a partisan issue. The Republican governor of Virginia is providing protection to Supreme Court Justices who live in that state. But the Republican governor of Maryland seems to think that harassing judges and their families is no big deal.

  Voters need to find out who is for or against mob rule, whether they are Democrats or Republicans. We are not going to be a free or decent society otherwise.

  *  *  *

  Thomas Sowell is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305. His website is www.tsowell.com. To find out more about Thomas Sowell and read features by other Creators Syndicate columnists and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate webpage at www.creators.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 21:30

• What Is ESG? It's A Leveraging Tool For The Woke Communist Takeover
  What Is ESG? It’s A Leveraging Tool For The Woke Communist Takeover

  The corporate dynamic when it comes to politics has been rather bizarre the past five years.  The general rule for decades in the US was that companies would avoid public sparring over political agendas whenever possible and if they did contribute to election campaigns they would spend money discreetly on candidates in both parties to hedge their bets.  Something changed around 2015-2016, however.  

  Was it the surprise election of Donald Trump?  Trump was probably incidental.  It was more likely the dramatic shift among conservatives away from the controlled Neo-con paradigm and into a more liberty oriented standing.  Ron Paul’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns had a lot to do with this change among Republican voters.  Conservatives and liberty minded independents were returning to their foundations of small government, constitutionalism, independent thought, meritocracy and decentralization.  This is when the corporate world decided (or was perhaps guided) to go full bore leftist.

  That is to say, the leftist cult couldn’t stifle the rise of conservative liberty advocates without consolidating their control in the open, and corporations are a big part of that strategy.   

  Wall Street, Entertainment Media and Big Tech companies donated FAR more to Democrat candidates in recent years compared to Republican candidates.  In the 2020 presidential election, they spent 250% more on Joe Biden’s campaign than Donald Trump’s.  But beyond that, many companies have gone aggressively and openly woke.   Social Justice narratives of “equity, diversity and inclusion” are dominating corporate culture, and though leftist bias has always been a problem among Hollywood elitists and the entertainment media, things got a lot worse after 2016.

  Part of this aggressive leftism could be attributed to the ESG movement (Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance), a clear appendage or tool for globalist foundations like the Ford Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation and the World Economic Forum.  It is also referred to as “stakeholder capitalism” and “mission related investing.”  Stakeholder capitalism is just another term for socialism/communism, and ESG is a related control methodology for dictating how businesses behave politically.  

  The term “ESG” was originally coined by the United Nations Environment Program Initiative in 2005, but the methodology was not fully applied to the corporate world until the past six years when ESG investment skyrocketed. 

  There are some people that will argue that ESG is not a true “communist” mechanism because communism technically involves the state taking control of the means of production.  These people are either ignorant or they are acting deliberately obtuse.  Communism is about controlling culture just as much as it is about controlling the economy.    

  Corporations are at bottom creations of government; they are chartered by governments, receive special legal advantages including corporate personhood, and they often receive special protections from governments including central bank stimulus and a shield from civil litigation.  They call it “too big to fail” because the government and the corporate world work hand in hand to keep certain institutions alive.  

  One could call this an odd mix of communism and fascism; the point is, the lines have blurred beyond all recognition and the ideology of the people in power is specifically leftist/communist/globalist. Corporations already have government incentives to protect the corrupt status quo, but ESG is designed to lure them into supporting vocal political alignment even at the cost of normal profits.

  

  ESG is about money; loans given out by top banks and foundations to companies that meet the guidelines of “stakeholder capitalism.”  Companies must show that they are actively pursuing a business environment that prioritizes woke virtues and climate change restrictions.  These loans are not an all prevailing income source, but ESG loans are highly targeted, they are growing in size (for now) and they are very easy to get as long as a company is willing to preach the social justice gospel as loudly as possible.

  Deloitte’s Insights studies show that ESG assets compounded at 16% p.a. between 2014 and 2018, now account for 25% of total market assets, and they believe that ESG could account for 50% of market share globally by 2024. 

  These loans become a form of leverage over the business world – Once they get a taste of that easy money they keep coming back.  Many of the loan targets attached to ESG are rarely enforced and penalties are few and far between.  Primarily, an ESG funded company must propagandize, that is all.  They must propagandize their employees and they must propagandize their customers.  As long as they do this, that sweet loan capital keeps flowing.  

  It’s enough to keep corporations addicted, but not enough to keep them satiated.  Diversity hiring quotas based on skin color and sexual orientation rather than merit help make the overlords happy.  Pushing critical race theory smooths the way for more cash.  Carbon controls and climate change narratives really makes them happy.  And, promoting trans-trenders and gender fluidity makes them ecstatic.  Each participating company gets it’s own ESG rating and the more woke they go, the higher their rating climbs and the more money they can get.

  The list of companies heavily involved in ESG includes some of the largest in the world, with influence over thousands of smaller businesses.  The ESG rating system is much like the social credit scoring system used in communist China to oppress the citizenry.  The tactic is pretty straightforward – Banking elites are centralizing control of social narratives by incentivising businesses to embrace social justice and globalist ideals.  They control who gets the money and anyone who doesn’t play ball will be at a distinct disadvantage compared to companies that do.  

  They figure, if the corporate world can be pushed to go full woke, then this will trickle down to the general public and influence our behaviors and thinking.  Except, it hasn’t exactly worked out that way.  Resistance to woke propaganda is growing exponentially and many of these companies are losing a huge portion of their customer base.  They cannot survive on ESG alone.               

  The thing is, even ESG money has limits.

  With central banks around the world now raising interest rates these kind of loans will become more expensive and will likely start to phase out.  This is why the most woke corporations out there are also some of the most desperate for revenues this year, and why many of these companies are edging closer and closer to mass layoffs.  The venture capital is gone and the ESG money is going to dry up also unless rates go back to zero and the bailout firehose is turned back on.  Getting woke was once a backdoor tactic of gaining easy wealth.  Now, getting woke really does mean going broke.   

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 21:00

• US University Admits It May Have Broken Law In Contract With Wuhan Lab
  US University Admits It May Have Broken Law In Contract With Wuhan Lab

  Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A top U.S. biosecurity lab is assuming responsibility for signing “poorly drafted” agreements with three high-level biosecurity labs in China that they concede may have broken the law.

  

  The three contracts, including one with the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), gave the Chinese labs powers to destroy “secret files” from any stage of their collaboration.

  “The party is entitled to ask the other to destroy and/or return the secret files, materials, and equipment without any backups,” stated the 2017 memorandum of understanding (MOU) that the University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) signed with the Wuhan lab, which first came to light in April.

  The broad confidentiality obligation, renewable every five years, applied to “[a]ll cooperation and exchange documents, data, details and materials,” the document said.

  Located in the first city where COVID-19 began to spread, the WIV, which for years conducted coronavirus research with U.S. funding, has attracted global attention as a possible source of the virus. The confidentiality agreements, coupled with Beijing’s pattern of suppression of discussion on pandemic origin, raised questions over whether any crucial data may have been erased from the public eye.

  The Texas medical university conceded recently that these confidentiality terms may have violated state laws.

  ‘Oversight’

  The university recently disclosed that it had signed contracts with identical confidentiality provisions with two other top-level biosecurity labs in China: the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute (pdf) in China’s northernmost province Heilongjiang, and the Institute of Medical Biology in Kunming (pdf), capital of China’s southern Yunnan Province, documents first obtained by the investigative research group U.S. Right to Know show. The two facilities, together with the WIV, house China’s only three labs certified with the highest biosafety levels.

  Reached by The Epoch Times, the university attributed the inclusion of the “poorly draftly” provision to an “oversight” on its part.

  “The University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) takes responsibility for the oversight in allowing memorandums of understanding (MOUs) to include a poorly drafted confidentiality provision in potential conflict with applicable state laws,” a university spokesperson told The Epoch Times.

  The university added that they “immediately terminated any MOU that contained language that conflicts with law and policy” upon learning of the error. “A review of processes and practices at UTMB is underway and new levels of oversight for procedures are being implemented.”

  

  The UTMB wouldn’t specify when it discovered the “error” nor when it put an end to the MOUs. The documents, however, had said that the confidentiality terms would stay in force even “after it has been terminated.”

  The UTMB’s Galveston National Laboratory, one of two national biocontainment laboratories built with U.S. federal grants, had years of partnership with the three Chinese facilities, providing the Chinese scientists with biosecurity training and conducting joint research projects. It began collaborating with the WIV in 2013.

  The university maintained that the agreements have resulted in minimal material consequences.

  “UTMB confirms no documents or confidential information has been destroyed, nor was there ever any request that any documents be destroyed,” the spokesperson said. “There was no financial engagement with any of the Chinese institutions in question, or collaboration with Chinese scientists concerning coronavirus research.”

  Edward Hammond, a biosafety activist who has called for greater transparency at the Galveston lab, was unconvinced by the university’s stance.

  “It is mystifying to me that this could have happened at all,” he told The Epoch Times. “Is it sloppiness, as UTMB suggests, or is something else going on?”

  LeDuc

  James LeDuc, director at the time for the Galveston lab, signed his name on all three contracts.

  In the months after the COVID-19 broke out, LeDuc had reached out to prominent WIV scientists overseeing bat coronavirus projects, in a bid to help them tamp down scrutiny over the facility’s role in the pandemic, according to recently released emails analyzed by The Epoch Times.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 20:30

• Which Nations Face The Biggest Disruption From China's Taiwan-Trade-Blockade?
  Which Nations Face The Biggest Disruption From China’s Taiwan-Trade-Blockade?

  Following an official visit of U.S. Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, relations between the island state known as the Republic of China and its direct neighbor, the People’s Republic of China, have cooled considerably.

  Apart from an increasing number of military exercises off the coast of Taiwan stoking fears of an escalation of the long-running conflict, the People’s Republic also has, to a certain extent, halted trade with Taiwan.

  

  While an import ban on certain Taiwanese fruits and fish is unlikely to become a source of global tensions, China’s export stop on sand, a resource essential for the manufacturing of semiconductors, could prove devastating for countries like the United States.

  <a href=" You will find more infographics at Statista“>As Statista’s Florian Zandt shows in the chart below, based on UN Comtrade data, 62 percent of the United States’ total trade volume with Taiwan came from imports from the island state in 2021. A majority of these goods fall into the IT and electronics sector, with companies like Apple, Qualcomm and NVIDIA relying on chips manufactured in the large-scale semiconductor foundries of Taiwan. Next to the war in Ukraine and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, China’s sand ban could become another exacerbating factor to the ongoing chip shortage.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The United States are not the only one profiting from Taiwanese exports.

  Germany, South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Japan are Taiwan’s principal trade partners in Europe, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and Oceania, respectively. Germany and Japan are especially reliant on the island’s industry, with exports taking up 40 percent of the $21 billion in trade with the European country and 34 percent of the Japanese-Taiwanese trade volume of $86 billion.

  The basis of the tensions between China and Taiwan is the hitherto unresolved question of independence. After the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, the remaining supporters of the defeated Kuomintang retreated to the island. Once established there, they proclaimed the Republic of China, while the People’s Republic sees the island, which is now governed democratically, as its own province.

  Largely ignored in this equation is the role of Taiwan’s indigenous peoples, 16 of whom are officially recognized as ethnic minorities. After a long history of colonization by the Netherlands, Spain, China and Japan, they still made up about 2.4 percent of the population in 2019.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 20:00

• Despite Climate-Doomsaying, Great Barrier Reef's Coral Growth Soars To Record
  Despite Climate-Doomsaying, Great Barrier Reef’s Coral Growth Soars To Record

  Authored by Chris Morrison via DailySceptic.org,

  The near vertiginous rise in the annual growth of coral at the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is continuing, with further major increases recorded across large areas.

  

  According to the 2021-22 annual summary from the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS), levels of coral cover in the northern and central areas of the reef were at their highest levels over the past 36 years of monitoring.

  The growth is of course excellent news for environmentalists, but curiously, at the time of writing, the news is being downplayed in the mainstream media. The demise of the world’s coral reefs has long been a go-to poster scare story for Net Zero promoters. As late as October 2020, the BBC  was telling stories about the Reef losing half of its coral. The Guardian was one of the first to set the coral doomsday ball rolling when George Monbiot told its readers in 1999 that the “imminent total destruction of the world’s coral reefs is not a scare story”. Noting the recent record growth, the newspaper added that “global heating could jeopardise recovery”.

  This notion that global warming will cause corals to die is frankly a big whopping fib. Tropical coral, which is closely related to its cnidarian cousin the jellyfish, thrives in waters between 24°C and 32°C. It is highly adaptable but seems to dislike sudden changes in temperature, often caused by natural weather oscillations such as El Niño events. As the latest results from the AIMS show, coral quickly recovers when normal localised conditions return. In fact, coral often grows faster in warmer waters nearer the equator than the GBR. The big agitprop lie suggests minor long-term sea temperatures changes will wipe out the coral, but the scientific evidence suggests otherwise.

  

  The sensational growth is clearly seen in the above graph for the northern reef. Recovery is said to have continued following a “period of cumulative disturbances” from 2014 to 2020. Only three of the 24 reefs surveyed in the last two years had decreased hard coral cover. The biggest disturbance, of course, arose around 2016 and was caused by a powerful, and natural, El Niño Pacific oscillation that quickly raised surrounding ocean temperatures by up to 3°C. Sudden warming spooks the coral and they expel symbiotic algae in a process commonly known as bleaching. As we can see, this is quickly reversed when sea temperatures stabilise. Corals have been around, in one form or another, for 500 million years. It is likely this natural process extends back that far to the birth of life as we know it on Earth.

  

  In the central reef, the declines seen in 2012 and 2016 were due to natural events, namely Cyclone Yasi in 2012 and El Niño in 2016. The latter led to bleaching to around 2019, and matters were not helped by outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish attacks. Since then, the growth has been spectacular. Last year saw hard coral cover increase to 33%, said to be the highest for this region. Over the last two years, hard coral cover declined on only four individual reefs, and increased on most of the rest surveyed.

  The southern part of the GBR has generally displayed the highest coral cover, but according to the AIMS it has been the most “dynamic” over the 36-year survey history. In recent years there has been good growth after the 2016 El Niño depredations, but there have been major attacks by starfish. AIMS notes that many southern reefs have high coral cover, but starfish continue to decimate some areas.

  Overall, the GBR seems to be in excellent shape.

  The AIMS notes that in the northern and central regions, hard coral cover reached 36% and 33% respectively. Reefs consist of much more than hard coral and contain a diversity of other species along with sponges and algae. The AIMS defines 30-50% as a “high value”, based on historical surveys.

  Nevertheless coral is still too valuable a weapon in the green agenda to be discarded lightly. Despite highlighting some stunning reverses of the recent natural coral declines, the AIMS seems to be sticking to the trendy apocalyptic story.

  “The predicted consequences of climate change, which include more frequent and intense mass coral bleaching events, are now a contemporary reality. Simultaneously, chronic stressors such as high turbidity, increasing ocean temperatures and changing ocean chemistry can all negatively affect recovery rates, while more frequent acute disturbances mean that the intervals for recovery are becoming shorter,” it concludes.

  For what it’s worth, my own hunch is that the little critters will still be around in another 500 million years, maybe longer.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 19:30

• North Carolina County 'Hardens' Schools With AR-15s For Resource Officers
  North Carolina County ‘Hardens’ Schools With AR-15s For Resource Officers

  In response to the disastrous failures and egregious poor decision-making of law enforcement to confront the Uvalde elementary school shooter that killed 21 people, including 19 children, a school system in North Carolina unveiled a new program to beef up security measures for the upcoming school year, including the placement of standard semi-automatic AR-15 rifles in every school, according to the Asheville Citizen-Times.

  Madison County Schools and Madison County Sheriff’s Office agreed to put AR-15s in all schools in the district so that school resource officers can neutralize a threat immediately, unlike the disastrous response time in Uvalde, where video footage shows it took officers 77 minutes to breach the classroom where the shooter was hiding. 

  “Those officers were in that building for so long, and that suspect was able to infiltrate that building and injure and kill so many kids,” Sheriff Buddy Harwood said, referring to the Uvalde shooting. “I just want to make sure my deputies are prepared in the event that happens.”

  “We were able to put an AR-15 rifle and safe in all of our schools in the county. We’ve also got breaching tools to go into those safes. We’ve got extra magazines with ammo in those safes,” Harwood said. 

  All Madison County Schools, including Brush Creek Elementary, Hot Springs Elementary, Mars Hill Elementary, Madison Middle, Madison High, and Madison Early College High, will receive enhanced security before school starts next month. 

  “The reason we put the breaching tools in the safes is that in the event we have someone barricaded in a door, we won’t have to wait on the fire department to get there,” the sheriff said. “We’ll have those tools to be able to breach that door if needed. I do not want to have to run back out to the car to grab an AR, because that’s time lost. Hopefully we’ll never need it, but I want my guys to be as prepared as prepared can be.” 

  “I hate that we’ve come to a place in our nation where I’ve got to put a safe in our schools, and lock that safe up for my deputies to be able to acquire an AR-15. But, we can shut it off and say it won’t happen in Madison County, but we never know. I want the parents of Madison County to know we’re going to take every measure necessary to ensure our kids are safe in this school system. If my parents, as a whole, want me to stand at that door with that AR strapped around that officer’s neck, then I’m going to do whatever my parents want as a whole to keep our kids safe,” Harwood continued.

  Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre recently said President Biden is not interested in beefing up school security protocols. 

  “I know there have been conversations about hardening schools. That is not something that he believes in,” said Jean-Pierre.

  Once the Madison County School story gains momentum in the national press, Democrats will have a meltdown on hardening schools and might even warrant a comment from Biden. But the fact is, a high percentage of all mass shootings occur in “gun-free zones” (areas where guns are prohibited), according to Crime Prevention Research Center. 

  

  A possible security solution to gun violence at schools (gun-free zones) is a resources officer who is properly trained and armed to tackle threats. Not hardening schools could be disastrous and the continuation of crazies slaughtering the innocent. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 19:00

• Biden Wants China Hawks To 'Put The Brakes' On Bill Gutting 40 Years Of Taiwan Policy
  Biden Wants China Hawks To ‘Put The Brakes’ On Bill Gutting 40 Years Of Taiwan Policy

  Authored by Connor Freeman via The Libertarian Institute,

  On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported, as tensions have risen to dangerous levels with China, President Joe Biden’s administration is lobbying Senate Democrats to “put the brakes” on the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022. The bill was recently introduced by the hawkish Senators Bob Menendez (D-NJ), Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

  Analysts have said the bill which, inter alia, would designate Taipei a “major non-NATO ally,” could see the One-China policy “in effect gutted.” In a New York Times op-ed this week, Menendez said “we are laying out a new vision that ensures our country is positioned to defend Taiwan for decades to come.”

  The bill was supposed to be called up by the Foreign Relations Committee this week, but Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) said work on the bill is being delayed until next month and could see revisions. “The White House has significant concerns,” said Murphy, adding “I have significant concerns.”

  

  According to a report in The Dispatch, “[Murphy] planned to introduce changes to make some of its language more ambiguous regarding whether the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China. A section of the proposal calls for the Defense Department to conduct a classified review of the U.S. strategy to defend Taiwan. One of Murphy’s amendments would have changed that language to instead mandate a review of the strategy to deter the use of force by the Chinese military.”

  The upshot is that the White House sees provoking China further right now as unwise in the wake of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit, which triggered an unprecedented crisis in the Taiwan Strait. A Chinese military official warned the situation could lead to “a real war at any point.” On the Republican side, Graham is accusing the administration of being soft on China. He has declared “it’s a miscalculation of how to keep the world in order.” Graham added “at every turn they take the weakest path.”

  The bill would vastly expand Taiwan’s role in international institutions and, over four years, provide $4.5 billion in military aid to Taipei including potentially long-range missiles capable of striking mainland China. This would make the island the fourth highest recipient of US security assistance behind only Kiev, Tel Aviv, and Cairo.

  In the event of “a significant escalation in hostile action” since December 2021, the legislation would require massive sanctions on a wide swath of China’s financial institutions, key industries, and much of the country’s political elite including President Xi Jinping.

  The Dispatch article says a part of the bill would “block any restrictions on bilateral relations between officials from the United States and their Taiwanese counterparts,” as well as change the name of the island’s de facto embassy in the US from the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO) to the “Taiwan Representative Office.”

  🇨🇳⚡🇹🇼 Visuals from the going PLA drills#Taiwan #china pic.twitter.com/57knD1JsFz

  — OsintTv📺 (@OsintTv) August 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  When Taiwan opened a diplomatic outpost with the latter name in Lithuania last year, signifying official rather than the “unofficial” status in line with the One-China policy, it caused a major row. The US supported Vilnius, as the Biden administration was “seriously considering” such a move itself. However, Beijing considered it a serious violation of the One-China principle and recalled its ambassador, which the Lithuanians subsequently reciprocated.

  The Dispatch report also suggests that it was not necessarily the Executive Branch’s ambivalence that halted the bill until September. “One Democratic Senate source familiar with the situation told The Dispatch the schedule change was not related to the White House’s concerns, but it came because… [Menendez] had to manage Senate floor debate on an unrelated measure Wednesday night to allow Finland and Sweden to join NATO.”

  The Bloomberg report, citing “people familiar with the matter,” said the White House fears the bill would interfere with the “strategic ambiguity” policy regarding whether Washington, in the event of an attack by mainland China, would intervene militarily to defend the island. Murphy said “I’m not sure this is the moment to throw out 40 years of policy,” while maintaining “it makes sense for us to draw closer to Taiwan.” In Menendez’s op-ed, he wrote “the United States needs less ambiguity to guide our approach to Taiwan.”

  Sen. Jim Risch, the committee’s top Republican, said “Many of us are ready to mark up the Taiwan Policy Act today,” adding the administration has “done enough damage on Taiwan policy, and continues to add to it this week. It should not interfere in the legislative process.”

  “If you put this on the floor of the Senate, it would pass overwhelmingly,” Graham told Bloomberg.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 18:30

• "Deteriorating Situation" Shows Rent Growth "Collapsing" In Sunbelt Markets
  “Deteriorating Situation” Shows Rent Growth “Collapsing” In Sunbelt Markets

  The housing and renting market continues to teeter on the brink, and the newest incoming data doesn’t offer up any clear signs of stabilization. In fact, new data continues to suggest the opposite: that volatility in housing could only be beginning…and that we’re going to have plenty of fodder on deflation, which we have talked about frequently, invoking the effects of a “reverse bullwhip” on the economy. 

  A new report from Apartments.com examining multifamily rent growth trends for July 2022 shows that the Sunbelt markets are set up for what is being called a “a significant collapse of demand” heading into the back half of 2022. 

  Sunbelt cities, which had previously “dominated the top 10 rent growth markets in July with eight out of 10 located within the region” are now setting up for the fastest pullback.

  Palm Beach is singled out as an example. The city has seen year over year asking rents falling from growth of 30.6% to now just 12.7% at the end of July 2022. Tampa and Las Vegas have also seen double digit pullbacks in rent. 

  

  Jay Lybik, National Director of Multifamily Analytics, CoStar Group, who owns Apartments.com, stated: “Throughout the month of July, while multifamily yearly rents continued to perform well above historical averages, the deceleration of rent growth quickened at a time when markets typically post their best results.”

  He continued: “The deteriorating rent situation highlights a significant collapse of demand in the sector when new unit deliveries are projected to hit 230,000 in the second half of 2022.”

  Over in the utopia brewing on the West Coast, places like San Francisco are bucking that trend. Rents in San Fran are just $18 below their all time peak of $3,116 that they set in Q2 2019, the report says. Rents were actually up by 40 bps over the last 30 days to grow 5%. 

  We’ll see how long that lasts…

  Overall, however, the rental picture is “deteriorating”, according to the release:

  Analysts have found that, looking sequentially, 12 markets saw absolute asking rents decline over the past month, the first occurrence since 2020. Miami led the charge with average asking rents down $11 during July, in addition to five markets that reported no change in rents over the last 30 days.

  The stark reversal for Sunbelt markets can be seen vividly in the month over month chart. Markets that saw negative or flat rent growth in July are dominated by Sunbelt locations, including Fort Lauderdale, Austin, Orlando, Charlotte and Tampa, amongst others.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 18:00

• Ethereum Neoclassic: Recap Of The Biggest Crypto News In The First Week Of August
  Ethereum Neoclassic: Recap Of The Biggest Crypto News In The First Week Of August

  By Donovan Choy of Bankless

  Ethereum Neoclassic (aka ETH PoW) chain

  As the Merge nears, one related point of discussion is emerging around a potential hard fork for an “ETH PoW” (Ethereum Proof-of-work) chain which some miners are voicing their support.

  I’m calling this the Ethereum Neoclassic (ETN) chain, because “ETH PoW” puts readers to sleep and there already exists a PoW-based Ethereum Classic from 2016.

  So why is the Ethereum Neoclassic hard fork potentially a thing? For the simple reason that the Merge is about to render an estimated $5B worth of mining rigs obsolete. That presents Ethereum miners with two choices:

  1. Redeploy their rigs toward mining Bitcoin, Dogecoin, Ethereum Classic, or some other PoW chain
  2. Protest the Merge by forking into the new ETH Neoclassic chain that retains PoW validation

  Should enough miners support the second option, it would likely be Ethereum’s second high-profile hard fork. The first one of course was in 2016 after the infamous DAO hack that saw a minority group of miners protest the Ethereum foundation’s decision to negate the theft of 3.6M ETH, thereby giving birth to Ethereum Classic (ETC). 

  There were die-hards then, and there are die-hards now. People like the status quo, especially if they have a stake in seeing it preserved.

  But today’s die-hards that threaten to hard fork face an even larger challenge for a few reasons.

  First, for the new Ethereum Neoclassic chain to thrive requires that the existing state of DeFi is successfully “ported” over to the new chain. That would require hundreds of asset providers and bridging protocols to honor claims on users’ assets — stablecoins, Lido’s staked ETH, all forms of wrapped tokens — that currently exist on the Neoclassic chain.

  Tether is likely going to enable redemptions for USDT on the new PoS Ethereum chain rather than a Neoclassic chain, given the strong social support for the Merge. If so, then decentralized exchanges and lending platforms on Neoclassic will collapse in the absence of liquidity.

  Of course, there is a chance that something maybe goes catastrophically wrong with the Merge, then a new Schelling point might gravitate around the Neoclassic chain. Then a minority of users maybe wants to redeem their USDT on the Neoclassic chain, and Tether maybe honors them. But that is a lot of maybes. It’s a classic collective action problem and no protocol wants to be stranded alone in a highly fractured DeFi landscape where trading infrastructure is broken and all other assets are dead.

  A short thread about EthPoW and what is quite likely to happen:

  Spoiler TL;DR: Galois et Guo delenda est

  🧵👇

  — Marc “Aavechan.lens” Zeller 👻 💜 (@lemiscate) August 1, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Second, a Neoclassic chain would come with the difficulty bomb, a built-in mechanism by Ethereum developers to disincentivize the original chain from functioning post-Merge by making mining increasingly difficult. Ethereum Neoclassic miners would have an insurmountable task of gathering consensus twice: Once to hard fork the Merge, then hard fork the previous hard fork again to remove the bomb. 

  Third, an Ethereum Neoclassic chain doesn’t only face competition for developer talent and users from the new PoS chain, but also the old Ethereum Classic (ETC) chain. Incidentally, ETC’s price has been rallying 32% in the past two weeks as speculators anticipate that the hash rate may be redirected to. 

  For all of these reasons and more, most analysts and researchers don’t foresee an Ethereum Neoclassic chain taking off.

  Will it happen? Likely.

  Will it succeed? That’s another question.

  Nomad bridge hack

  There are two major hacks rippling across DeFi this week. The first is the Nomad bridge racking up 5th place on the Rekt leaderboards with a ~$190M loss. 

  Nomad is a decentralized cross-chain bridge protocol supporting asset transfers across five chains: Avalanche, Ethereum, Cosmos’ Evmos, Cardano’s Milkomeda, and the Polkadot Moonbeam network. On the eve of its hack, Nomad was the 6th largest Ethereum bridge holding ~$169M of value.

  

  What happened? A flaw in a Nomad smart contract allowed users to spoof transactions and withdraw money from an open vault (it was open for 43 days 🤯) on the bridge.

  That opened the door to hundreds of hackers for a cash grab by copy-pasting the transaction call data used by the original hacker, and replacing the wallet address with one of their own to siphon funds.

  1/ Nomad just got drained for over $150M in one of the most chaotic hacks that Web3 has ever seen. How exactly did this happen, and what was the root cause? Allow me to take you behind the scenes 👇 pic.twitter.com/Y7Q3fZ7ezm

  — samczsun (@samczsun) August 1, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Unlike the centralized Axie Infinity Ronin bridge $650M hack in March where private validator keys were stolen, the Nomad hack stems not from a flaw in design architecture i.e., the degree of trust required, but from a smart contract flaw. In short, Nomad’s design focused on trust-minimization and was more in line with the decentralized nature of Web3, but still came up short.

  The silver lining here is that because the exploit was a free-for-all, some ethical hackers accumulated at least $9M of the spoils, which have been returned to Nomad.

  Nomad exploit onchain activity, visualized. pic.twitter.com/WqjcbQfWKW

  — Hsaka (@HsakaTrades) August 1, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It’s probably worth reiterating for the hundredth time on Bankless that cross-chain bridges come with their own risks (different from multi-chain bridges like Cosmos).

  If the crypto that you own sits only on its native network, then its security relies exclusively on that network’s validator security. But there’s a new exciting dapp on another chain running liquidity-mining-fuelled 100% APYs, so the smart investor thing to do is wrap and transfer your crypto around different chains to stake for greater returns, while at the same time watch number go up on your original collateral— win-win right? 

  Cross-chain bridges enable that kind of capital efficiency but it also introduces new attack vectors and smart contract risks as your crypto traverses different chains.

  Lesson: If you use a bridge, use it with your eyes wide open.

  With the recent hack of @nomadxyz_ I think it is time to reflect more broadly on bridges security as by now they became by far the most critical piece of blockchain infrastructure. Here are some things to consider: 👇🧵https://t.co/se3eU95olY

  — bartek.eth (@bkiepuszewski) August 2, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Solana wallet hack

  The second hack this week is taking place within the Solana ecosystem, affecting at least 8,000 Solana wallets with total losses of up to $6M, particularly popularly used wallets like Phantom, as well as Slope and Trust.

  In the early stages of the hack, it wasn’t clear what the security issue was. Both the Solana Foundation and Phantom alleged that the problem may be related to Slope Finance, a Solana Web3 aggregator platform that offers iOS and Android mobile wallets. The uncertainty led Solana users rushing to push funds to a hardware wallet or even centralized exchanges.

  Well, it turned out that the root cause of the problem simply stemmed from… Slope Wallet is a terrible service provider. Slope stored wallet seed phrases on a centralized event logging service and then that service was exposed. 

  Correction – the Slope wallet did not send seed phrases to external partners, but may have logged them on their own centralized servers. Apologies for getting a bit ahead of myself, postmortem still in progress. Wait for an announcement from the team for true confirmation.

  — foobar (@0xfoobar) August 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Slope’s official statement doesn’t tell us much, safe for “we dun goofed”, “we know it hurts, and “wait for pending investigation”.

  Three Arrows Capital fallout

  You thought the fallout was over but it isn’t. Celsius sees a data breach that leaks its customers emails.

  The Block reports that Babel Finance, a crypto bank that halted withdrawals last month lost at least $280M in trading during the June market downtown.

  Other news:

  Aave moves to freeze Fantom markets due to recent bridge exploits; Rainbow Wallet supports NFTs on Ethereum, Polygon, Arbitrum and Optimism; Starknet launches NFTs; Robinhood gets fined $30M by the New York State Department of Financial Services.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 17:30

• Indiana Enacts Near Total Abortion Ban
  Indiana Enacts Near Total Abortion Ban

  Following on the heels of a ban in Georgia, Indiana is the latest state to end abortion after the Supreme Court ruled that the practice is not a constitutional right and that laws regarding abortion must be decided by the states.

  Media pundits were quick to attack the decision while applauding Kansas for its blocking of similar restrictions. 

  There are numerous claims that abortion laws are a losing proposition for conservatives going into the November election and that Republican candidates face sure defeat.  However, pro-abortion protests have been far smaller than many expected after the Supreme Court confirmed what illegal leaks had hinted at – That Roe v. Wade was about to be undone.  Activist groups have left little impression that conservatives face some kind of “reckoning” in the fall.  

  

  Abortion as a convenient form of birth control is perhaps not as appealing a notion as the far-left imagines.  Indiana’s near total abortion ban will take effect on September 15th.

  At least 26 states are certain or likely to ban abortion in the coming months.  Though Kansas was seen as a “surprise” given its reputation as a conservative state,  the fact that they have a Democrat governor and they supported pandemic lockdowns well after most red states ended them should have been clear signs that Kansas is more blue than many people believe.  It was never even on the list of states that are seen as a threat to abortion activists. 

  Far from being a crushing policy for conservatives, abortion bans are more likely to act as a litmus test for state governments and their dedication to conservative causes (such as the right to life for all innocent individuals including the unborn).  Red state governments that don’t act to reverse abortion practices would be seen as suspect.  By the end of this year most Americans will know exactly what kind of state they are living in. 

  If the covid lockdowns and restrictions didn’t make this clear, the battles over Roe v. Wade will certainly clarify things.     

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 17:00

• The Greatest Value Investor You've Never Heard Of
  The Greatest Value Investor You’ve Never Heard Of

  By the MacroOps Substack

  “We can have no finer role model. First and foremost, he was a value investor — a member of that eccentric tribe that believes it’s better to underpay than to overpay.”

  Those words by James Grant were in reference to one of the greatest value investors the world has ever seen. It’s not who you think it is. And no, you couldn’t guess him given fifty chances. This investor remains off the beaten path, absent from many investors’ Mt. Rushmore of allocators.

  The investor is Floyd Odlum.

  

  Buried somewhere in the junk drawer of investing lore, Odlum’s story remains unknown. A quick Google search reveals his Wikipedia and IMDB pages. Yet in typical deep-value fashion, the last link on the page revealed Odlum’s investing story.

  The Holy Financier’s blog post was that last link. The blog proved an excellent springboard for a deeper investigation into Odlum’s early life, initial career and his path to market fortunes. Although Odlum (pictured on the right) and Ben Graham never met, their investment philosophies are one in the same.

  We’ll journey through his upbringing, his days as a struggling lawyer and his initial attempt at market speculation. Then we’ll see how Odlum turned $39,000 into $700,000 in two years.

  Life Before The Markets

  Floyd Bostwick Odlum was born on March 30, 1892 in Union City, Michigan. When Floyd was 16, his father — a Methodist minister — moved the family to Colorado. Floyd stayed close to home, studying law at the University of Colorado. He received his degree in 1914. Floyd bounced around in his first few years after college. After marrying his first wife, Hortense in 1915, Odlum accepted a job as an attorney for the Utah Power and Light company in Salt Lake City, UT.

  Three years later, he found himself off the ski slopes and in the throes of New York City. Between 1917 and 1918, Odlum worked for the Simpson, Thatcher and Bartlett law firm, as well as the Electric Bond and Share Company. He settled down with Electric Bond and Share Company long enough to gain the role of vice president.

  Dipping His Toes in Speculation

  With a decent income from his job as a law clerk, Odlum started trading in the stock market. He initially saw the market as a rich, fertile ground for speculative profits. Far from his cemented legacy as a deep value investor. Yet like most beginning speculators, Odlum too paid his fair share of market tuition.

  After losing all his $40,000 starting capital, Odlum retreated from the markets. One newspaper revealed it, “took [Odlum] a while to pay back that sum”. Yet It was this early $40K loss that turned Odlum from speculator to investor. From tape reader to business analysis. Lawyer to Wall Street Legend.

  Soon enough, Odlum would be back. The starting capital would be the same. The approach, anything but similar.

  The United States Company

  Odlum wasn’t just a great investor. He also had a knack for choosing the most generic partnership names, such as his first “The United States Company”. The partnership, formed in 1923, was a couple’s affair. Odlum, George Howard and their wives seeded the partnership with $39,000 ($573K adj. for inflation).

  What followed over the next two years was nothing short of incredible. According to Odlum’s biography, The United States Company grew 17x from 1923 – 1925. What started as a small partnership amongst friends turned into a $660,000 behemoth ($9.47M adjusted for inflation).

  Odlum’s two-year CAGR is mind-numbing. If that wasn’t impressive enough, he generated these returns while working full-time as a law clerk!

  How did he generate such outsized returns?

  Well, he was a deep value investor. He searched for fifty-cent dollars and  scoured every corner of the market. According to documents from the Eisenhower Library, Odlum preferred two kinds of investments:

  • Utility stocks
  • Special situations

  He defined a special situation as “an investment […] involving not only primary financial sponsorship, but usually also responsibility for [the] management of the enterprise.” The former lawyer wasn’t interested in flipping a business for a quick buck, either.

  Embedded in Odlum’s strategy was the determination to see a special situation through until success, “[We will] stay with the investment until the essentials of the job have been done, and then move on [to] another special situation”.

  Between 1925 – 1928, Odlum steadily grew the partnership. By investing in utilities and special situations, The United States Company AUM grew to $6M (over $88M adjusted for inflation). It was around this time that Odlum began sensing euphoria in the market. He smelled a top and he decided it was time for him to act.

  The Formation of Atlas Corporation

  In 1929, he rolled his original partnership into a new vehicle, The Atlas Corporation. Wary of a market top, Odlum sold half his assets. He stayed in cash and issued $9M worth of Atlas Corporation securities. With $14M in cash, Floyd sat on his hands. Waiting for the next market crash, which shortly followed.

  

  Odlum was prepared and took full advantage once fear had fully gripped the market and there was blood in the streets… His subsequent operations were chronicled in an old newspaper article (courtesy of NeckarCap on Twitter):

  “After the crash, Odlum, looking around quietly with more ready money than almost anybody in Wall Street except [a] few of the big banks, noticed that the trend in trusts had reversed.”

  Odlum’s 1929 Strategy: Sit. Wait. Attack.

  Along with his traditional investments, Odlum dabbled in a number of other industries, including:

  • Mining
  • Oil and gas
  • Motion picture production and distribution
  • Aircraft and airlines
  • Department stores
  • Manufacturing
  • Broadway stage productions
  • Hotels and buildings

  But his bread and butter during the Depression was buying investment trusts. His strategy was simple. He found investment trusts that had fallen so much their stock prices were trading less than the value of their marketable securities. A good example of this in today’s markets is Manning & Napier (note: I do not hold shares).

  He discovered he could buy these trusts, liquidate their assets, and reap large profits for his stakeholders. He was buying dollar bills for $0.60 and he milked this strategy for all it’s worth. He ended up buying and merging investment trust twenty-two times. The newspaper article profiled these dealings:

  “He figured out that by buying all the outstanding shares of a particular trust, he was really buying cash or its equivalent at sixty cents on the dollar.”

  When he didn’t have the cash to buy the trusts, he sold shares in his own company, Atlas, to fund the purchases. After exchanging his stock for the trust’s stock, Odlum would merge or dissolved the existing trust, keeping the cash and assets within Atlas Corp.

  This strategy helped grow his assets to $150M ($2.2B adjusted for inflation).

  Between 1929 and 1935, Odlum invested (and controlled) many diverse businesses. He owned Greyhound Bus, a little motion picture studio named Paramount, Hilton Hotels, three women’s apparel companies, uranium mines, a bank, an office building, and an oil company.

  Taking It All In

  Odlum started with $40,000 and lost it all speculating in the market. He then pooled together another $39,000 to form his first partnership. That original $39,000 grew to $150M in controlled assets. All that during a span of just twelve years.

  The math is incredible. Odlum grew assets 384,515% in a bit over a decade. That’s a 32,042% CAGR for asset growth.

  And his early partnership returns are just as impressive. Odlum grew assets from $39,000 to $6M between 1923 – 1929. That’s a cumulative 15,284% return. In other words, Odlum compounded capital at an annual rate of 2,547%.

  Life After Markets: A Love of Aviation

  Odlum’s life was unique. His extracurriculars sprinkled with high-profile relationships, a pioneer wife and bountiful philanthropy. After his divorce in 1935, Odlum married Jacqueline Cochran. Cochran (pictured below) was a pioneer in the field of women’s aviation. And while Amelia Earnhart garners most aviation lore, Cochran’s track record is nothing to scoff at. Some of her achievements include:

  • Flying solo on the ninth day of flying lessons
  • First woman to complete the Bendix race, a cross-country race from LA to Ohio
  • Set flight duration record in 1937 flying from NY to Miami, FL
  • First woman to make a blind landing (1939)
  • Broke 2,000km international speed record (1940)

  The list goes on. At the time of her death, Cochran held more speed, distance and altitude records than any living pilot.

  Odlum played a key role in women’s aviation and space flight. He financed a majority of his wife and Earnhart’s flights. He also pumped millions into the US missile development program because, “I think the money could have been spent better otherwise. But it’s too early to tote up the value of its products. My wife thinks the moon shots were terrific.”

  Health and Retirement

  Odlum battled rheumatoid arthritis most of his adult life. The pain got so bad he had to stop working. Yet even in retirement, Odlum conducted business. One section in Odlum’s obituary shines light on his relationship with business:

  “He often [took[ telephone calls on a rubberized receiver while floating in his Olympic-sized swimming pool.”

  Odlum entertained (and housed) some of America’s most prolific leaders and talents. He dined with General James Doolittle, Bob Hope, Gloria Swanson, Walt Disney, Nelson Rockefeller and Howard Hughs.

  But of all these guests, none were more famous than President Dwight D. Eisenhower. He and Eisenhower shared a close relationship. So close, in fact, that Odlum carved out a piece of land for Eisenhower to live during the winters. Eisenhower’s small piece of property on the Odlum Estate was known as Eisenhower Cottage.

  Bringing It Back To Investments: Three Takeaways

  I want to finish this essay with three takeaways from Floyd Odlum’s investing career:

  1. You don’t need to be 100% invested 24/7

  2. Boring is beautiful

  3. Be a dumpster diver (with standards)

  1. You Don’t Have To Be 100% Invested 24/7

  Odlum wasn’t a market timer. He was a deep value investor. When value ideas dried up, Odlum went to cash. He didn’t force investments or lower his underwriting standards. He simply sat in cash.

  Jesse Livermore, a man whose made (and lost) millions in the markets, praises sitting on cash. Seth Klarman is known for his 40% cash balances during periods of market froth.

  If you want to beat the markets you must do things differently. Passive investors are 100% invested, but they’re not worried about beating the market.

  2. Boring is Beautiful

  The United States Company invested in utility stocks and special situations. These are boring corners of the market. Yet it’s these areas that catapulted Odlum’s returns into the stratosphere. How can we apply this ‘boring is beautiful’ philosophy?

  In today’s tech-driven market, many investors forget about the boring, slow-growing cash producers. These companies are toll road operators, electrical component producers, road builders. Boring businesses with not-so-boring returns.

  3. Be a Dumpster Diver (with Standards)

  The stocks Odlum bought were the ones others hated. These companies traded around 52-week and all-time lows. You wouldn’t find anyone talking about these stocks at cocktail parties.

  Yet they offered outsized returns simply because nobody bothered to look at the (potential) hidden value. Be a dumpster diver with standards. You’ll find many companies trading around all-time lows that aren’t as bad as Mr. Market thinks.

  Sources Used:

  https://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/finding-aids/pdf/odlum-floyd-papers.pdf

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/newsletters09/pdfs/James_Grant-A_Positive_Lesson_from_the_Great_Depression.pdf

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floyd_Odlum

  https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e85e/5bb20ac461ed6ef05a5fa0590bab214fd3ef.pdf

  http://theholyfinancier.com/floyd-odlum-deep-value-investor-never-heard/

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 16:30

• "Situation Is Really Precarious": World's Largest Rice Exporter Faces Output Decline Amid Heatwave
  “Situation Is Really Precarious”: World’s Largest Rice Exporter Faces Output Decline Amid Heatwave

  The effects of elevated food prices have rippled worldwide and forced governments to impose price controls and trade restrictions. Price increases are due to supply constraints driven by several variables, including high energy prices, geopolitics, and weather. Ukraine restarted maritime transport of crops to the rest of the world, forcing grain prices to slip, though the food crisis is far from over. 

  We pointed out in April that the next challenge for the global food supply could be a plunge in rice production (read: here). Fast forward months later, and our suspicions appear to be right as India, the world’s largest rice exporter, has seen planting areas of the crop decline by 13% due to heatwaves and drought. 

  

  India accounts for 40% of the global rice trade, and a decline in production will complicate India’s domestic inflation fight. It could result in export restrictions, leading to few supplies for the rest of the world. 

  

  In the last two weeks, prices in India have soared more than 10% in top growing states such as West Bengal, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh due to lack of rainfall and crop output concerns, Mukesh Jain, a director at Sponge Enterprises Pvt., a rice trader, told Bloomberg. He expects export prices to reach $400 a ton by next month from $365 this week. 

  Rice feeds half of humanity and is vital for political and economic stability across Asia. Supply disruptions due to potential trade restrictions by India could create shortages and rising prices elsewhere. 

  There’s still hope crop output could recover as the monsoon season is expected to produce normal rainfall through September. However, some farmers sounded the alarm output is expected to drop significantly. 

  Farmer Rajesh Kumar Singh operates a small farm with seven acres in Uttar Pradesh planted on only half the land because of the lack of rain in June and July. “The situation is really precarious,” he said.

  Himanshu, a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, who goes by only one name, said rice prices would continue to rise because of adverse weather conditions that would help boost overall inflation. 

  The question remains if a further rise in food prices would derail India’s inflation fight. 

  “Lower area of rice sowing amidst increased demand of imports from Bangladesh and other Middle Eastern countries have pushed up rice prices of different varieties to as much as 30% since June,” said Deutsche Bank Economist Kaushik Das. “This poses challenges for the food inflation outlook.”

  The Reserve Bank of India is set to hike interest rates Friday to subdue the hottest inflation in a decade.

  The next food price shock could be from India, though it’s difficult to estimate the exact level of production loss. 

  Global food prices are still well above 2011 levels when Arab Spring resulted in revolutions across the Middle East. Signs of inflation riots have already materialized in several emerging market countries, including bankrupt Sir Lanka. 

  

  All eyes are on India’s rice production, which is set for harvest in mid-September through October. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 16:00

• Doctors Criticize Fauci For Saying COVID Vaccines Induce 'Only Temporary' Menstrual Irregularities
  Doctors Criticize Fauci For Saying COVID Vaccines Induce ‘Only Temporary’ Menstrual Irregularities

  Authored by Enrico Trigoso via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Dr. Anthony Fauci’s recent comments on menstrual irregularities met with serious rebuttal from gynecologists, who say COVID-19 vaccines should not have been injected into pregnant women without adequate safety testing.

  “Well, the menstrual thing is something that seems to be quite transient and temporary, that’s one of the points,” Fauci said in an appearance on Fox News on July 25, upon being asked about the effect of vaccines on menstrual cycles.

  “We need to study it more,” Fauci added.

  

  Fauci is the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and has been a frontman for COVID vaccine information in the United States.

  Dr. Christiane Northrup MD, a former fellow in the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, remarked to The Epoch Times on Fauci’s comments: “Unfortunately the menstrual problems we are seeing are far from transient and temporary. Many women have been bleeding daily or having heavy, irregular, painful periods for an entire year. And some of these are well past menopause. Something is way off here. ”

  Dr. James Thorp is an extensively published 69-year-old physician MD board-certified in obstetrics and gynecology, as well as maternal-fetal medicine, who has been practicing obstetrics for over 42 years.

  “The significant and dramatic changes in menstrual patterns occurring after COVID-19 vaccines should not be marginalized. It is indicative of major adverse effects on women of reproductive age. The stakeholders claimed that the vaccine would remain at the injection site in the deltoid muscle. This was misinformation. The lipid nanoparticles (LNP’s) are now known to be distributed throughout the entire body and to be concentrated in the ovaries, according to at least two studies. Schadlich and colleagues demonstrated concentration of the LNP’s in ovaries of different mouse species and Wistar rats, in vivo, in vitro and by sophisticated microscopic imaging in 2012,” he told The Epoch Times.

  A lipid nanoparticle is an extremely small particle, a fat-soluble membrane that is the cargo of the messenger RNA.

  Pfizer’s Internal Documents

  Pfizer’s internal documents, obtained via the Freedom of Information Act, show a 118-fold increase in the concentration of LNPs from the time of injection to 48 hours.

  “The LNP’s are known to include toxic substances including polyethylene glycol and pseudo-uridinated mRNA. The limited number of ovum in the ovaries (about 1 million) are exposed to potentially toxic substances and could potentially have catastrophic effects on human reproduction,” Thorp said.  

  “The stakeholders claimed that the pseudo-uridinated mRNA could not be reverse transcribed into the human DNA. This was misinformation,” he added, referring to a Swedish study published in February 2022 that concluded that Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine is able to enter human liver cells and is converted into DNA.

  Thorp and former Pfizer VP Michael Yeadon believe that the medical industrial complex had unequivocal evidence on the vaccine’s danger in pregnant women.

  “This is proven not only by VAERS but also by Pfizer’s own internal document ‘Pfizer 5.3.6 post-marketing experience’” Thorp said.

  Within the first 90 days of trials, there were 1,223 deaths, multiple severe adverse effects, and a 45 percent complication rate in pregnancy cases (274) that occurred in vaccinated mothers (124).

  The 2012 study, mentioned by Thorp earlier, says that after testing with different mouse species and Wistar rats, “a high local accumulation of nanoparticles, nanocapsules and nanoemulsions in specific locations of the ovaries was found in all animals.”

  Yeadon believes that the pharmaceutical industry “definitely knew,” since 2012, that the lipid nanoparticles would accumulate in the ovaries of women that took the vaccines.

  “No one in the industry or in leading media could claim ‘they didn’t know about these risks to successful pregnancy,’” Yeadon told The Epoch Times in April.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 15:30

• NHTSA Investigating Potential Tesla Autopilot Crashes That Left Two Motorcyclists Dead
  NHTSA Investigating Potential Tesla Autopilot Crashes That Left Two Motorcyclists Dead

  In the midst of an already ongoing investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot and Full-Self Driving claims, the NHTSA is now investigating two new accidents involving Teslas that took place over the last month.

  The Tesla’s were “apparently running on Autopilot”, according to APs coverage of the story. The accidents wound up killing 2 motorcyclists, the report says. The NHTSA is now looking at whether or not Tesla vehicle automation stops the vehicles for motorcycles. 

  Both accidents were similar in nature: the NHTSA said it “sent investigation teams to two crashes last month in which Teslas collided with motorcycles on freeways in the darkness”. In both instances, the motorcyclists were killed. 

  The agency now has suspicions “that Tesla’s partially automated driver-assist system was in use” during both accidents. 

  

  The first accident was at 4:47am, July 7 on State Route 91, on a freeway in Riverside, California, the report says. A Model Y collided with a green Yamaha V-Star motorcycle that was ahead of it and the driver of the bike was ejected from his motorcycle. 

  Another crash happened at 1:09am on July 24,  on Interstate 15 near Draper, Utah. A Model 3 was behind a Harley Davidson, the Utah Department of Public Safety said. 

  “The driver of the Tesla did not see the motorcyclist and collided with the back of the motorcycle, which threw the rider from the bike,” the statement says. The rider of the Harley was pronounced dead at the scene. The driver told authorities he had Autopilot on, the report says. 

  Michael Brooks, acting executive director of the nonprofit Center for Auto Safety, has been pushing for a recall of Tesla’s Autopilot. He concluded: “It’s pretty clear to me, and it should be to a lot of Tesla owners by now, this stuff isn’t working properly and it’s not going to live up to the expectations, and it is putting innocent people in danger on the roads.”

  The investigations add another layer of scrutiny on Tesla’s flagship vehicle selling point by regulators. While Elon Musk continues to deal with Chancery Court in Delaware over his Twitter deal, he is also being scrutinized by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any blow to the company’s Autopilot feature, including a potential recall, could wind up having profound financial consequences for the automaker. 

  So far, however, regulators have sat idly by on their hands – and so the game of “chicken” with Elon Musk continues…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 15:00

• CDC Suggests Gay, Bi Men Take "Temporary Break" From Sex To Curb Monkeypox Spread
  CDC Suggests Gay, Bi Men Take “Temporary Break” From Sex To Curb Monkeypox Spread

  Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times,

  The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday updated its monkeypox advice to suggest people most at risk, namely men who have sex with men, “take a temporary break” from those behaviors to help “contain … the outbreak.”

  

  Among the updates are suggestions that people “take a temporary break” from sexual activity until considered vaccinated; limit their number of sexual partners; avoid “spaces” for anonymous sex with multiple partners; use condoms; and wear gloves during particular sexual activities.

  These five suggestions to reduce the chance of spread were added to the seven that appeared on the webpage when it was updated on July 12. In that previous update, the CDC offered suggestions for sexual activities for people who have (or think they have) “monkeypox and … decide to have sex.”

  Friday’s update contains stronger messaging, with the CDC now saying “the best way to protect yourself and others is to avoid sex of any kind … while you are sick.” People should especially “avoid touching any rash.”

  Public Health Emergency

  The updates come a day after the Biden administration declared a public health emergency for monkeypox in a bid to unlock funding and more powers to deal with the virus. Some states, including New York, California, and Indiana, have declared their own public health emergencies for similar reasons.

  

  The stages of Monkeypox. (UK Health Security Agency)

  The updated advice appears on the CDC’s “Safer Sex, Social Gatherings, and Monkeypox” webpage which contains detailed and specific information tailored to lowering the risk of transmission during particular sexual activities.

  “While CDC works to contain the current monkeypox outbreak and learn more about the virus, this information can help you make informed choices when you are in situations or places where monkeypox could be spread,” reads a statement on the webpage which wasn’t there in July.

  “Monkeypox is not considered a sexually transmitted disease, but it is often transmitted through close, sustained physical contact, which can include sexual contact.”

  The CDC has also advised people to consider the chances of skin-to-skin contact when attending festivals or raves.

  “Festivals, events, and concerts where attendees are fully clothed and unlikely to share skin-to-skin contact are safer. However, attendees should be mindful of activities (like kissing) that might spread monkeypox,” the CDC webpage reads.

  “A rave, party, or club where there is minimal clothing and where there is direct, personal, often skin-to-skin contact has some risk. Avoid any rash you see on others and consider minimizing skin-to-skin contact.”

  The CDC especially noted the increased risk of spread at these events in “enclosed spaces” where people go for “intimate, often anonymous sexual contact with multiple partners.”

  LGBT Community Outreach

  The White House has identified a vital need for education about monkeypox and outreach to the LGBT community, which is most affected by the outbreak, in order to combat the virus.

  White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Monday that there is a need to make sure the LGBT community and public health officials “know exactly what to look for and what the treatment is.”

  The CDC’s updated suggestions come three days after President Joe Biden picked Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, who runs the CDC’s HIV prevention division, as one of two officials to lead the nation’s response to the monkeypox outbreak.

  Daskalakis, who will be deputy to FEMA’s Robert Fenton, has expertise with issues that impact the LGBT community, making him an appropriate pick, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the White House’s chief medical adviser.

  

  Dr. Demetre Daskalakis speaks at the press conference for New York City Pride on June 27, 2021. (John Lamparski/Getty Images)

  The 2022 monkeypox outbreak has so far primarily spread via the sexual activity of gay and bisexual men, a major study has found. The virus can also spread through contaminated bedding, clothing, towels, according to the CDC and World Health Organization.

  After the United States’ fifth pediatric monkeypox case was reported in Long Beach on Thursday, a Californian health department has also said transmission can occur via household items such as cups and utensils.

  The CDC’s updated webpage for safer sex amid the monkeypox outbreak noted that vaccines will be “an important tool in preventing the spread of monkeypox.”

  “But given the current limited supply of vaccine, consider temporarily changing some behaviors that may increase your risk of being exposed,” the webpage reads. “These temporary changes will help slow the spread of monkeypox until vaccine supply is adequate.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 08/06/2022 – 14:30

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• AR-15 Most Popular Hunting Rifle In America
  AR-15 Most Popular Hunting Rifle In America

  In a survey commissioned by Winchester, 75% of centerfire rifle shooters used an MSR or “Modern Sporting Rifle.” MSR is a term commonly used to refer to the AR-15 family of rifles.

  Winchester found that 60% of those who hunt use a centerfire rifle, specifically an MSR. 40% of all hunters surveyed used MSRs such as the AR-15 for hunting.

  

  This data would seem to contradict current legislative proposals on Capitol Hill, such as H.R. 1808, also known as the Assault Weapons Ban of 2022. Which just passed the House of Representatives in a 217-213 vote and currently sits awaiting a vote in the Senate.

  MSRs are commonly used for hunting even in more restrictive states like Maryland, which ban cartridges like the .223 & 5.56 for hunting purposes. Because of this, many hunters choose to use straight wall cartridges like 350 Legend in MSRs like the Ruger AR-556MPR.

  

  AR Platform rifles or “Modern Sporting Rifles” are a common choice for hunters who desire the platform’s modularity and wealth of aftermarket support. According to Jordan Sillars of TheMeatEater, an outdoor lifestyle company founded by Steven Rinella, hunters can tailor their rifles to their specific needs.

  In addition, statistics cited by Business Insider show that the number of AR-15s and other Modern Sporting Rifles has increased exponentially over the last two decades since the expiration of the 1994 Assault Weapon Ban.

  

  Talking points about the proposed 2022 Assault Weapons Ban, or H.R. 1808, point to the idea that modern sporting rifles are not commonly used for hunting purposes. This new data released by Winchester seems to suggest otherwise.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 23:20

• The Fentanyl Crisis: Brought To You By Drug Prohibition
  The Fentanyl Crisis: Brought To You By Drug Prohibition

  Authored by Brian McGlinchey via Stark Realities

  As drug overdoses continue rising in the United States, one drug has emerged as the most notorious killer of our day: fentanyl. Unfortunately, those clamoring loudest about fentanyl’s death toll support policies that actually bolster its position in the illicit drug trade.

  First approved for U.S. medical use in 1968, fentanyl is a synthetic opioid used to counter severe pain after surgery, and chronic severe pain. Though similar to morphine or heroin, it’s 50 to 100 times more potent.

  Most of the fentanyl circulating on the streets doesn’t come from pharmaceutical companies. According to the DEA, black market fentanyl is “primarily manufactured in foreign clandestine labs and smuggled into the United States through Mexico.” China is a major source of its chemical ingredients and some finished product too.

  As with other black-market knock-offs, the inconsistency of illicit fentanyl makes it more dangerous. Worse, it’s often laced into other drugs, including cocaine, heroin, marijuana and counterfeit pills disguised as pharmaceutical-grade Oxycontin, Xanax, and Adderall.

  Though its effect varies by a user’s size and tolerance, ingesting just 2 milligrams can be fatal. That fact lends itself to jolting descriptions of fentanyl’s lethality by public officials, pundits and click-chasing media. A recent Fox News headline is just one of countless examples of fentanyl sensationalism: “Colorado State Patrol seizes enough fentanyl to kill 25 million people.”

  When you consider that, in 2021, there were 108,000 overdose deaths from all drugs in the entire country, you can see where headlines and rhetoric centered on such calculations aren’t meant to enlighten an audience so much as to shock it.

  

  American discourse about fentanyl is further warped by politicians and sloppy journalists who promulgate urban legends about cops and bystanders dying from merely touching fentanyl powder.

  For example, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy recently asked Fox’s Sean Hannity if he’d heard about “a young woman who picked up a dollar bill sitting on the floor of a McDonald’s and fell down” because fentanyl was supposedly on it. “That’s how deadly it is.”

  Like many similar tales, this one proved false. Fentanyl can be plenty deadly, but not that way.

  Over-the-top fentanyl scaremongering isn’t just about attracting an audience. For some—like McCarthy—it’s an opportunistic means of advancing a goal of reducing illegal immigration via tightened border security.

  Setting immigration policy aside and keeping our focus here on fentanyl, we now come to an essential truth that’s little-known either inside or outside of government:

  The more you intensify drug interdiction along the border and elsewhere, the more you elevate fentanyl as the drug trade’s import of choice.

  Blame it on the “Iron Law of Prohibition.” First put forth by Richard Cowan in 1986, the Iron Law of Prohibition states: “As law enforcement becomes more intense, the potency of prohibited substances increases.”

  To appreciate the dynamic, let’s look back to America’s experiment with alcohol prohibition, with some help from the Cato Institute’s Trevor Burrus:

  “Smugglers and bootleggers preferred high‐​potency spirits because they are easier to transport illicitly. Consequently, distilled alcohol and fortified wines became almost 90% of alcohol consumption after Prohibition, compared to 40% before…During alcohol Prohibition, speakeasies were essentially bars that only served Everclear.”

  Now think about it from a drug trafficker’s perspective: Would you rather try smuggling 10 pounds of fentanyl, a thousand pounds of heroin or a truckload of pot?

  

  The stark reality is that enforcement of drug laws isn’t the answer to the fentanyl crisis—it’s the very reason we have a fentanyl crisis.

  That crisis is also driven by regulatory crackdowns on prescription opiates, which drive both addicts and those with legitimate needs away from pills of uniform quality and dosage and into the dicey, deadly realm of black market alternatives.

  Consider this: In 2011, oxycodone topped the overdose death charts, with 5,587 fatalities. That led the government to impose new policies to frighten doctors away from prescribing opioids. By 2016, fentanyl was the new top killer, and it was associated with 18,335 deaths — more than triple the 2011 oxycodone tally.

  You can build a coast-to-coast border wall that extends 200 feet above and below ground, and fentanyl will keep flowing into the country via other avenues — as it does already to lesser degrees.

  The more difficult you make it to move fentanyl, the higher its price goes, inviting new entrants into the black market, and incentivizing the adoption of innovative and more elaborate ways of meeting America’s perpetual demand for intoxicants. At some point, it could even incentivize cartels to move production inside U.S. borders.

  Those wouldn’t be the only outcomes. If drug warriors and border hawks somehow manage to make it far more difficult to move fentanyl, fentanyl will likely be dethroned by something worse.

  Indeed, earlier this year, an even more dangerous synthetic opioid started making its own grim headlines — it’s called isotonitazene, or ISO, and it’s reportedly 20 times stronger than fentanyl. The Iron Law of Prohibition strikes again.

  Prohibition hasn’t just made drugs more dangerous. Just as alcohol prohibition did, drug prohibition also fosters violence among black market operators. When’s the last time you heard of a gunfight breaking out between rival alcohol distributors?

  Prohibition also invites many hideous forms of authoritarian excess, to include frequently-fruitless dismantling of vehicles, body cavity searches, and even coerced colonoscopies that come up empty.

  In short, drug prohibition’s harmful results far exceed its beneficial ones. Meanwhile, drugs are as readily obtainable today as they were when Richard Nixon declared a federal war on drugs a half-century ago.

  So what are we to do? Though it’s contrary to intuition and a shock to many people’s sensibilities, the proper response to the fentanyl crisis and other collateral damage of the war on drugs is clear: across-the-board drug legalization.

  That isn’t an endorsement of drug abuse any more than legalized alcohol endorses alcohol abuse — which, it should be noted, has a death toll that rivals if not exceeds that of drug abuse.

  Rather, full legalization of both production and possession is the logical position for those who understand that policies must be judged not by their intentions, but by their results.

  Stark Realities undermines official narratives, demolishes conventional wisdom and exposes fundamental myths across the political spectrum. Read more and subscribe at starkrealities.substack.com

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 23:00

• Mapping Taiwan's Thinly Weaved Diplomatic Web
  Mapping Taiwan’s Thinly Weaved Diplomatic Web

  The past week has been one of suspense as U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi deliberated over whether or not to stop in Taiwan on her tour of Asia.

  After arriving, the US legislator said that the United States “will not abandon” the island, which is autonomous and democratically governed, but as a part of China is at risk of having that right revoked.

  With the Russian War in Ukraine and the Chinese government’s relatively restrained stance on the issue, many international analysts wonder whether Beijing plans to regain control of the province, only separated from mainland China by the Strait of Taiwan.

  However, as Statista’s Anna Fleck notes,  with the power that China holds on the international stage, the Taiwanese government can only count on the official support of a few small states around the world.

  Currently, only 14 independent countries recognize the Taipei government and dare to challenge mainland China’s position by establishing diplomatic relations with the island, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The majority (eight states) are located in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Paraguay, Guatemala, Honduras and Haiti.

  Taiwan’s other four allies are island nations in Southeast Asia, namely Nauru, Palau, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands.

  This list is rounded off with the Kingdom of Eswatini, located in Africa, and the Vatican City State, in Europe.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 22:40

• Revolutions And The Curse Of Democracy
  Revolutions And The Curse Of Democracy

  Authored by Techno Fog via The Rectionary (emphasis ours),

  If we measure the success of a government by how it reflects the will of the people, then our democracy is a failure. This has always been one of the long-discussed dangers of democracy: that it may cease to be a government “by the people.”1 Let us admit that the danger of democracy has been realized.

  

  The revolution you see today had to start at the top because the people – the voters – were unwilling to spark revolutionary change. Power then imposition, through the institutions and the bureaucracies onto the population. Enabled by the constraints on bureaucratic power being unenforced and the limitations on legislative authority being ignored. Elections thought to reflect the will of the people instead force on the people the will of the elected.

  The people don’t want to be murdered in the streets, but the policies of criminal-friendly prosecutors – those who predicted their acts would result in innocent deaths – demand their blood.

  The people prefer common-sense immigration policies, which include the deportation of criminal illegals. And yet federal and local officials refuse to act, leading to the rape of minors and last year’s decapitation of a Minnesota woman, her body dumped in broad daylight on a residential street. Both acts conducted by illegal immigrants with criminal records.

  The people would like to see their children educated. A minority of those in power would pervert the wishes of parents, following the guidance of their predecessors who advocated for American schools to become committed to the proselytization of liberalism and dedicated to achieving a more radical and progressive social order. As a result, we see the state pushing radical gender theory on children, transgender indoctrination of grade schoolers and sex-ed starting in kindergarten. (Andrew Sullivan can object to the grooming all he wants, but he should know the broader revolution that he helped lead won’t stop when he asks nicely.)

  The personal costs of the new order are dismissed. All revolutions require sacrifices. Lives are destroyed, children are scandalized, heads are severed, and bodies are buried as they remake the world.

  The revolution ceases to be a revolution upon victory. But it won’t end if it’s defeated. It will shift forms and attack other fronts. After all, if the revolution fails to secure its promises, through mistakes or political losses, can it be said that the revolution is really over?2 To paraphrase Richard Rorty, the left will always operate from the premise that our nation is unachieved. It seems its defeat will never be complete eradication, but instead containment and derision, with gender theory kept at the margins with the other nonsense.

  Despite the momentum in certain jurisdictions, their victory is thankfully not guaranteed. It is and will be the long revolution. The aspirations of utopia will always be tried, and always just a few steps ahead, but never be realized. Modern liberals, like the communists before them, will ultimately face the decay of their system. In response, they will reject introspection and reform, and instead demand more liberal democracy – that is, more control and more extremes – to set things right.3 What lies at the end of that democratic road is “a new despotism.”4

  Subscribers can read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 22:20

• Space Junk Crashing Back To Earth Becomes A Problem
  Space Junk Crashing Back To Earth Becomes A Problem

  As countries and private companies increase space exploration, orbital missions have unleashed thousands of pieces of debris into orbit. The junk consists of rocket boosters, defunct satellites, and spaceborne shrapnel that is at risk of crashing down to Earth, and over the last few weeks, two separate incidents highlighted the growing threat to people and infrastructure. 

  A few years back, the European Space Agency (ESA) warned about the worsening space junk situation jamming up Earth’s orbit. In 2020, there were an estimated 160 million objects in orbit, and growing as the number of space missions has exponentially increased. 

  The latest piece of space junk that uncontrollably tumbled back to Earth was on July 30 when China’s Long March 5B rocket (weighing a staggering 23 tons) crashed into the Sulu Sea, nearly missing Palawan Island in the Philippines. 

  Debris from #China‘s CZ-5B reentry spotted in Kuching, Malaysia. pic.twitter.com/loO5K3TQXm

  — Doge (@IntelDoge) July 30, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Another incident on July 9 involved space junk from an old SpaceX mission that landed in rural Australia. 

  SpaceX has not confirmed if the pieces were part of a Crew-1 Dragon spacecraft mission from early 2021, but space debris tracker Jonathan McDowell tweeted on July 29 that they were likely unpressurized “trunk” pieces of Dragon.

  Dalgety is indeed near to the trunk’s reentry path on Jul 8.
  The object is a good match to one of the Dragon trunk fins, pic.twitter.com/KQk4237dv8

  — Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) July 29, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Two incidents of space debris crashing back to Earth in July alone is a concern for people and infrastructure on the ground. 

  In a study recently published in Nature Astronomy, titled Unnecessary risks created by uncontrolled rocket entries, researchers say there’s a 10% probability that one or more casualties will occur from uncontrolled space junk re-entries over the next decade. 

  “Most space launches result in uncontrolled rocket body reentries, creating casualty risks for people on the ground, at sea and in aeroplanes,” according to the study. “These risks have long been treated as negligible, but the number of rocket bodies abandoned in orbit is growing, while rocket bodies from past launches continue to reenter the atmosphere due to gas drag.”

  “Those national governments whose populations are being put at risk should demand that major spacefaring states act, together, to mandate controlled rocket reentries, create meaningful consequences for non-compliance and thus eliminate the risks for everyone,” it concluded.

  The two uncontrolled space junk renteries last month aren’t a one-off phenomenon. ESA’s Space Debris Office recently published a map pointing out locations where rocket boosters, defunct satellites, and other debris have crashed back to Earth. 

  

  Earlier this year, we noted a powerful geomagnetic storm knocked dozens of Starlink satellites out of orbit. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 22:00

• The Rise Of "Constitutional Carry" Is A Sign Of Failing Trust In Government
  The Rise Of “Constitutional Carry” Is A Sign Of Failing Trust In Government

  Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

  Come next January, Alabama will be the 25th state to allow the carrying of concealed weapons without a permit. Alabama will soon join Indiana which in March of this year passed a new statute allowing permitless concealed carry in that state—sometimes called “constitutional carry.” In 2021 alone, at least six states passed their own provisions legalizing permitless concealed carry: Arkansas, Iowa, Montana, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah. Essentially, any law-abiding citizen over a certain age (usually 18 or 21 years of age) can now carry a concealed firearm in these states. 20 years ago, only Vermont allowed unrestricted concealed carry. Beginning ten years ago, however, more than twenty states adopted new laws deregulating the carrying of firearms. 

  Why is this happening now? On its most simple level, these laws are passed because lawmakers and constituents at the state level have advocated for their passage. Moreover, whatever opposition has existed among interest groups and the public has been insufficient to block their passage. 

  On a deeper ideological level, increased access to concealed carry is likely the result of a growing feeling among much of the public that they need increased access to firearms for self-protection. In other words, the spread of constitutional carry points to a growing sentiment that state and local authorities are insufficient to provide a reasonable expectation of safety from violent crime, and that private self-defense is therefore more necessary now than in the past. 

  Moreover, many of these laws expanding access to concealed carry have been passed over the objections of local law enforcement. Police organizations have been among the most vocal of opponents to new constitutional carry measures, yet Republican lawmakers—a group often happy to fall all over themselves announcing how much they “back the blue”—have passed these laws anyway. It is one thing to support law enforcement officers on a vague philosophical level, of course, but the continued spread of constitutional carry suggests there are limits to this support among even conservatives. Rather, the passage of these laws suggests a growing lack of faith that even well-meaning law enforcement can or will provide meaningful defense from violent criminals when the time arises. 

  Declining Faith in Institutions

  The survey data continues to point to declining public faith in public institutions, and this includes law enforcement and the legal system. As faith in these institutions falls, the perceived need to provide one’s own self-defense naturally increases. As one sociologist puts it, “legal cynicism” leads to greater demand for “protective gun ownership” and “lower levels of police legitimacy are significantly related to a higher probability of acquiring a firearm for protection.”

  In the worst cases, this can even lead to extralegal “self-help” with a firearm, and this phenomenon has been explored by historian Randolph Roth who notes that declining perceptions of state legitimacy can lead to high rates of violent crime. That is, when the public believes that official coercion will be insufficient to restrain crime, private citizens may feel the need to take matters into their own hands. 

  Moreover, crime data in some cases suggests a correlation between gun ownership and high crime levels. Advocates of gun control naturally interpret this correlation as evidence that the presence of guns is the cause of more crime. Yet the causality more likely runs in the other direction: more crime leads to more people arming themselves. Statistical studies are insufficient to prove causality in any case, as a Rand study on gun violence notes: 

  Whether [the correlation between guns and crime] attributable to gun prevalence causing more violent crime is unclear. If people are more likely to acquire guns when crime rates are rising or high, then the same pattern of evidence would be expected. … existing research studies and data include a wealth of descriptive information on homicide, suicide, and firearms, but, because of the limitations of existing data and methods, do not credibly demonstrate a causal relationship between the ownership of firearms and the causes or prevention of criminal violence or suicide.

  And, as one New Jersey study concluded after surveying young residents of high-crime areas,

  most participants said they carried guns to increase their feelings of safety. “They held a widespread belief that they could be victimized at any time, and guns served to protect them from real or perceived threats from other gun carriers.”

  The perceived need for personal protection is likely more urgent and immediate in high crime areas, but the sentiment certainly is not unique to these areas. Suburban and rural advocates for broadening concealed carry frequently invoke the need for personal protection from violent crime as justification for new laws expanding the right to carry in nearly every situation. 

  Laws Passed Over Police Opposition 

  Although many individual police officers support nearly untrammeled gun ownership by law abiding citizens, many others do not. In the case of Alabama’s legislative battle over permitless carry, for instance, “the bills have been roundly criticized by police and gun control advocates, who argue that removing permits poses a safety risk to citizens and officers.” The head of Alabama’s Sheriff’s Association wants to change the Second Amendment to ban concealed carry altogether. And elsewhere “Some of the loudest opponents of permitless carry laws are the police. They spoke out in Indiana, Texas, and Kentucky but that didn’t stop lawmakers from passing “constitutional carry” laws.” In Georgia, many law enforcement officers voiced their opposition to conceal carry, much to the delight of the state’s Democratic party. In Ohio, constitutional carry has been opposed by the Fraternal Order of Police—the public labor union that provides free lawyers to abusive and incompetent police officers. Even in Republican-controlled legislatures—where professed support for police runs high—police efforts to quash expanded conceal carry have failed repeatedly. 

  The continued spread of constitutional carry is, of course, related to the surge we’ve seen toward more private gun ownership overall. For example, Americans in 2020 and 2021 went on what CNN calls a “gun buying spree” and this included a 58% surge in gun purchases in 2021 among Black men and women. Violent and destructive “mostly peaceful” protests exposed the limited ability of law enforcement to do much other than protect government property during periods of unrest. In the wake of lockdowns, which shut down vital social institutions such as churches and schools, crime surged in the US, and not just in the “usual” places like urban cores. Police legitimacy also suffered a serious blow with the abject failure of local, state, and federal law enforcement agencies at the Uvalde school shooting in May of this year. The officers who chose to do nothing while children were massacred will likely face no serious legal repercussions, and this will further highlight that police officers are under no legal obligation to actually protect the public from violent crime. 

  It’s no wonder that permitless concealed carry continues to make gains in American states. In the past, many Americans may have simply trusted to the regime to provide “law and order.” But that sentiment is apparently becoming more and more rare. 

  * * * 

  Statista’s Katharina Buchholz maps out the states that allow permitless carry of guns.  

  

  And in states like Maryland, where the recent Supreme Court decision changed the stance on licensing concealed firearms from “may issue” to a “shall issue,” demand for concealed carry classes has erupted as citizens feel the need that nobody but themselves will save them in times of emergencies as the country becomes more dangerous.  

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 21:40

• "Rich People Can Be Very Cheap": Yacht Owners Hem And Haw About The Rising Cost Of Diesel
  “Rich People Can Be Very Cheap”: Yacht Owners Hem And Haw About The Rising Cost Of Diesel

  Well it looks like it’s finally high time for someone to pay attention to soaring diesel prices…

  After all, affluent yacht owners are starting to complain about the high prices! That was the topic of a new New York Post piece out this week where the paper spoke to yacht owners who have grown frustrated with the price of fuel.

  One owner, who docks in the Hamptons, told the Post: “It used to be $2,500 to take my boat out for lunch but this year it’s going to be $5,000.” Large boats that are about 70 feet burn about 130 gallons per hour just to keep their engines running. 

  Another yacht owner, who recently took a trip from an “exclusive marina” in Miami back up to Montauk, complained: “It cost 72% more to have the boat brought up to New York this year from Florida.” 

  Diesel is up more than $1.77 per gallon over last year’s price, the report notes. Premiums for the fuel are even higher in the Central Atlantic, where costs have gone up more than $2 to $5.52 per gallon.

  

  Owners at places like the Hamptons have complained about the additional premium they have to pay at local docks. In the Hamptons, for instance, there is only a handful of places to refuel, putting boat owners “at the mercy of the marina”. 

  Another owner told The New York Post they believe that the docks were adding another “dollar or two” per gallon in premiums. But the reality is that the wealthy haven’t quite seen enough to call off their summer soirees. 

  “Everyone whines but all the docks are still at capacity,” an owner said. 

  A dock owner chimed in: “Rich people can be very cheap with certain things. Spending a thousand dollars on a lunch is no problem, but paying an extra couple hundred dollars on fuel will annoy them.”

  “There are guys worth hundreds of millions that cut out coupons and give them to the crew for buying groceries. It sucks, but if you’re complaining about filling up a car, that’s a necessity. Boats are a luxury so it’s a little tone-deaf,” they concluded. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 21:20

• Feed Shortage Leads To Pig Cannibalism, China's Economy Worsens
  Feed Shortage Leads To Pig Cannibalism, China’s Economy Worsens

  Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A video showing pigs eating a deceased pig on a farm in China went viral recently. Some of the pig farmers, working for a major Chinese financial group, said that the cannibalism occurred because of feed shortages. One expert believes that feed shortages are a reflection of bigger problems in China’s economy.

  

  Since July 24, the video has been one of the most searched topics on Chinese social media, putting a spotlight on the listed company and a major pig farming company, Jiangxi Zhengbang Tech (whose subsidiary is Jiangxi Zhengbang Breeding Co.), that contracted the farmers to raise the pigs. Posts about the company have been circulating online, such as “the farmers’ pig feed supply was cut off,” “the chairman of Zhengbang was restricted from buying high-end products,” “the company’s fundraising was delayed,” and “the company’s court ordered total amount of compensation reached 100 million yuan (about $14.8 million),” etc.

  It caused the stock of Zhengbang Tech to fall 6.66 percent to 5.89 yuan (about $0.87) per share on July 25. The company then issued several announcements in response to the issues.

  On July 25, Zhengbang Tech admitted that there were interruptions to the pig feed supply in July, citing the downturn in pig prices in June, COVID-19, the company’s funds being tight, logistics issues, and problems in coordination with the feed producers. There’s no mention of compensation for the pig farmers in the statement.

  The company’s statements did not affirm or deny that pig cannibalism occurred on the farms.

  Bigger Financial Issues

  In addition, a “necessary reminder” was included in the Zhengbang statement. It said: “The company’s net profit in the first half of 2022 is expected to lose 3.8 billion to 4.6 billion yuan (about $563 million to $682 million).” The statement has increased worries from the outside world about the company’s “shortage of funds.”

  Independent current affairs commentator Tang Jingyuan told The Epoch Times on July 27, that there are two main reasons for Zhengbang Tech’s shortage of pig feed. “One is a shortage of funds, and there may even be a break in the capital chain. The other is that the COVID-19 epidemic has caused the logistics system to be blocked, which is the problem with the coordination of logistics distribution and feed mills mentioned in the company’s official statement. Behind these two reasons, the root cause is actually that the economic environment in mainland China has deteriorated due to the regime’s zero-COVID policy and measures, resulting in a vicious cycle of mutual causation between the two reasons mentioned above.”

  “The deterioration in China’s economy is largely caused by policy mistakes rather than a natural disaster. Zhengbang Tech is only one of the countless companies that pay for it,” he said.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 21:00

• Rogan Slams Biden Admin For "Gaslighting" Americans About Recession
  Rogan Slams Biden Admin For “Gaslighting” Americans About Recession

  Having seen the mainstream media rush to defend a clearly weakening economy, closing the ‘Overton Window’ on any mention of the ‘r-word’ – to the extent that one senior economist was fact-checked by Facebook for daring to utter the ‘r-word’ – pocaster Joe Rogan blasted the Biden administration for “gaslighting” the American people about the meaning of a recession after two consecutive quarters of economic contraction were reported last week.

  

  During a podcast with Chris Williamson, the pair turned to the topic of the recent quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) report and the efforts of President Joe Biden’s entire administration (and every mainstream media useful idiot and tenured ivory tower economist) to deflect the recession label.

  Rogan criticized the administration for tampering with the definition of the word “recession,” and claimed that politicians were “gaslighting” the American public by denying the label.

  “People think that [the word recession] is trivial, ’cause they are talking about this economic downturn, but it’s not trivial, because we’ve always used that term ‘recession,’ and we’ve always used that term to define whether or not the economic policies that are currently in place and whether or not the management in the government has done a good job of making sure that the economy stays in a good place,” Rogan said.

  “They definitely haven’t done that, so in order to escape that sort of distinction, they’re literally changing the definition, which is terrible, and it should be pushed back against in a big way. It should be something that people get angry about.”

  Williamson appeared to agree with Rogan, arguing that changing the definition of recession served only to distract from the hard economic reality and to protect the political interests of the Democratic Party.

  “The bizarre thing about the recession situation is the fact that it doesn’t matter what you call it. You can call it … ‘paradise’ if you want, but it’s still [expletive], and all of the criteria of what’s happening indicates a recession,” Williamson said.

  “The reason, obviously, is that you’ve got midterms coming up, and you need to make sure that ‘is in a recession’ is something that can’t be thrown at the Democrats.”

  Watch the full discussion below:

  And finally, don;t let the administration and its prancing ponies ‘gaslight’ you again that strong jobs data ‘proves’ we are not in a recession. First things first, as we detailed here, jobs are the most lagged signal of a recession; and second, under the hood of today’s “great” jobs data, we find that the surge in jobs was driven by individuals taking on multiple jobs – which hit a record high.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 20:40

• CDC Claims Link Between Heart Inflammation And COVID-19 Vaccines Wasn't Known For Most Of 2021
  CDC Claims Link Between Heart Inflammation And COVID-19 Vaccines Wasn’t Known For Most Of 2021

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has claimed that there was no known association between heart inflammation and COVID-19 vaccines as late as October 2021.

  

  CDC officials made the claim, which is false, in response to a Freedom of Information Act request for reports from a CDC team that is focused on analyzing the risk of post-vaccination myocarditis and pericarditis, two forms of heart inflammation. Both began detected at higher-than-expected rates after COVID-19 vaccination in the spring of 2021.

  The team focuses on studying data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a passive surveillance system co-run by the CDC and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

  The date range for the search was April 2, 2021, to Oct. 2, 2021.

  “The National Center for Emerging Zoonotic Infectious Diseases performed a search of our records that failed to reveal any documents pertaining to your request,” Roger Andoh, a CDC records officer, told The Epoch Times. The center is part of the CDC.

  No abstractions or reports were available because “an association between myocarditis and mRNA COVID-19 vaccination was not known at that time,” Andoh added.

  Both the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines are built on messenger RNA (mRNA) technology.

  

  Earliest Myocarditis Reports

  Reports of heart inflammation after COVID-19 vaccination were first made public in April 2021 by the U.S. military, which detected the issue along with Israeli authorities well before the CDC.

  While Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the CDC’s director, said that month that the agency had looked for a safety signal in its data and found none, by the end of June CDC researchers were saying that the available data “suggest an association with immunization,” and in August described (pdf) the issue as a “harm” from vaccination.

  The claim that the link wasn’t known “is provably false,” Barbara Loe Fisher, co-founder and president of the National Vaccine Information Center, told The Epoch Times via email. “Either the right hand does not know what the left hand is doing at CDC, or federal health officials are disseminating misinformation about what they knew about myocarditis following mRNA COVID vaccines and when they knew it.”

  Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said that the FOIA response “raises even more questions about the agency’s honesty, transparency, and use, or lack thereof, of its safety surveillance systems, such as VAERS, to detect COVID-19 vaccine adverse events.”

  “I have sent two letters to the CDC about the agency’s inability to find records demonstrating its use of the vaccine surveillance systems. To date, the CDC has failed to respond to my letters,” he added.

  

  ‘Correction’

  “Apparently CDC needs to make a correction!” a spokeswoman for the agency told The Epoch Times in an email.

  The agency is acknowledging that by June 2021, data began to indicate a link between the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines and heart inflammation, outlined that month in two presentations made to government vaccine advisory panels.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 20:20

• Australia Blasts China's Taiwan Drills As "Disproportionate & Destabilizing" – Warns Of Miscalculation
  Australia Blasts China’s Taiwan Drills As “Disproportionate & Destabilizing” – Warns Of Miscalculation

  The United States’ closest regional partner and member of the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing relationship Australia on Friday condemned China’s “destabilizing” actions in holding live fire drills surrounding Taiwan, most importantly the launching of ballistic missiles over the island.

  “These exercises are disproportionate and destabilizing,” Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said in a statement on Friday. “This is a serious matter for the region, including for our close strategic partner, Japan,” she added in reference to the “Quad” group, which in addition to the US, Australia and Japan includes the large economy of India.

  

  While also condemning the largest PLA exercises in recent history, Canberra’s foreign minister highlighted that the launching of mid-range missiles into waters off Taiwan is “disproportionate,” and urged for “restraint and de-escalation” on the part of Beijing.

  “Australia is deeply concerned about the launch of ballistic missiles by China into waters around Taiwan’s coastline,” Wong said. She further echoed Thursday words of White House NSC spokesman John Kirby which warned of the possibility of “miscalculation”.

  “Australia shares the region’s concerns about this escalating military activity, especially the risks of miscalculation,” she said. The day prior, Kirby stressed in a White House briefing, “One of the things that’s troublesome about exercises like this or missile launches like this is the risk of calculation, the risk of a mistake that could actually lead to some sort of conflict.”

  This after announcing that the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group will stay in waters near Taiwan for longer than expected in response to the Chinese PLA drills.

  Video: The #PLA Eastern Theater Command Air Force on Fri continued drills around Taiwan island with fighters, bombers, early warning aircraft and electronic recon aircraft. Pilots could visually confirm Taiwan’s coastline and the Central Mountain Range. pic.twitter.com/QsFaqgRYyP

  — Global Times (@globaltimesnews) August 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Importantly, the Australian top diplomat further underscored that Canberra won’t back a “unilateral change of status quo” across the Taiwan Strait and that it remains committed to the Once China principle.

  However, China has been questioning the commitment of the US and its allies, particularly given US weapons transfers to Taiwan, which Washington has stressed are “defensive” and don’t constitute a threat to the mainland.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 20:00

• Illegal Immigration Leading To Major Drug Problems Inside America: Lt. Gen. Flynn
  Illegal Immigration Leading To Major Drug Problems Inside America: Lt. Gen. Flynn

  Authored by Zachary Steiber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The flood of illegal immigrants that have entered the United States in the past several decades has contributed to the rise in drugs and drug addiction inside the country, former national security adviser and retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn says.

  “We have a domestic problem that is fueled by large, large numbers of deadly drugs and large amounts of money,” Flynn said on EpochTV’s “Facts Matter” program.

  

  The illegal immigration crisis has reached unprecedented levels under President Joe Biden, with the United States setting new records for illegal alien arrests at the U.S.–Mexico border for both a calendar year and a fiscal year. But the problem goes back 25 years, and has spanned administrations of both parties, said Flynn, who was the national security adviser under President Donald Trump.

  If even just 10 percent of the illegal immigrants are criminals, that means a force that’s larger than the entire U.S. Marine Corps has illegally entered the country in recent years, Flynn said.

  Criminal Cartels

  The criminals, often part of cartels, often go to cities and ply drugs, which has deepened the addiction problems there.

  “They get organized, and they get brought into the cities, they get brought into the urban areas, and they get some money into their pockets, and they’re in there, and they get some orders to get out there and sort of flood the zone with drugs,” Flynn said. “They’re killing this country with the likes of fentanyl, and opioids and heroin. And they’re getting away with it.”

  While some convicted criminals are deported, others are being allowed to remain in the United States under orders from top Biden administration officials, who have asserted that there is not enough manpower to deport all illegal immigrants that are convicted of additional crimes in addition to entering or remaining illegally.

  Speaking in Florida, Flynn said he backed some of the moves Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has made, but decried the busing of illegal immigrants from Texas and Arizona to Washington as a “publicity stunt” that is being cheered by the cartels. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey have been footing the bill for the buses, which has been described as putting pressure on Biden by sending illegal aliens to the city in which he lives. Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser recently requested National Guard assistance due to the influx.

  In any case, the illegal immigration and drug issues require action at the federal, state, and local levels, according to Flynn.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 19:40

• Top Physicist Admits "Distant Star" Photo Was Actually Chorizo
  Top Physicist Admits “Distant Star” Photo Was Actually Chorizo

  A French physicist supposedly tweeted an image of a distant star taken by the $10 billion James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), but it turned out to be fake news and nothing more than a slice of chorizo. 

  Étienne Klein, a prominent physicist and director at France’s Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission, tweeted an image of a red ball of spicy Spanish sausage last week, asserting it was the closest star to the sun. 

  “Picture of Proxima Centauri, the nearest star to the Sun, located 4.2 light years away from us. It was taken by the James Webb Space Telescope. This level of detail… A new world is unveiled everyday,” Klein told his more than 92,000 followers on Sunday. 

  Photo de Proxima du Centaure, l’étoile la plus proche du Soleil, située à 4,2 année-lumière de nous.
  Elle a été prise par le JWST.
  Ce niveau de détails… Un nouveau monde se dévoile jour après jour. pic.twitter.com/88UBbHDQ7Z

  — Etienne KLEIN (@EtienneKlein) July 31, 2022

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  The tweet went viral as Twitter users marveled at what they thought was the latest deep space picture taken by JWST. 

  However, Klein later revealed that the image wasn’t a star over four light-years away but just a slice of Spanish sausage chorizo. 

  “Well, when it’s cocktail hour, cognitive bias seem to find plenty to enjoy… Beware of it. According to contemporary cosmology, no object related to Spanish charcuterie exists anywhere else other than on Earth,” he said. 

  On Wednesday, Klein apologized for the fake news:

  “I come to present my apologies to those who may have been shocked by my prank, which had nothing original about it,” he said, describing the tweet as a “scientist’s joke.”

  He also tweeted an image of the Cartwheel Galaxy taken by JWST, assuring the image was “real this time.” 

  Photo (VRAIE cette fois…) de la galaxie de la Roue du Chariot et de ses galaxies compagnes, prise par le JWST. Située à 500 millions d’années-lumière, elle fut sans doute spirale dans son passé, mais a pris cette étrange allure à la suite d’un furieux carambolage galactique. pic.twitter.com/vmiDjU1Gjt

  — Etienne KLEIN (@EtienneKlein) August 3, 2022

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  The timing of Klein’s tweet comes several weeks after NASA published the deepest views of the cosmos, a sight no one on Earth had ever seen. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 19:20

• The Tyranny Of Coronaphobia
  The Tyranny Of Coronaphobia

  Authored by Ramesh Thakur via The Browstone Institute,

  I’ve had two big worries during the pandemic, starting from the very beginning and still ongoing.

  Both relate to my sense that ‘coronaphobia’ has taken over as the basis of government policy in so many countries, with a complete loss of perspective that life is a balance of risks pretty much on a daily basis.

  

  First, the extent to which dominant majorities of peoples in countries with universal literacy can be successfully terrified into surrendering their civil liberties and individual freedoms has come as a frightening shock. There is this truly confronting video of the police in Melbourne assaulting a small young woman – for not wearing a mask!

  On the one hand, the evidence base for the scale and gravity of the Covid-19 pandemic is surprisingly thin in comparison to the myriad other threats to our health that we face every year. We don’t ban cars on the reasoning that every life counts and even one traffic death is one too many lives lost. Instead, we trade a level of convenience for a level of risk to life and limb.

  On the other hand, the restrictions imposed on everyday life as we know it have been far more draconian than anything previously done, even during World War II or the great 1918-19 flu. In present circumstances, the argument for the crucial importance of liberties has been made most eloquently by former UK Supreme Court Justice Lord Sumption in a BBC interview on March 31st, and repeated several times since. 

  But it’s also an argument that Benjamin Franklin, one of the founding fathers of America (and therefore suspect in the post-Black Lives Matter and statues-toppling environment), made back in the 18th century: ‘Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety’. 

  Yet, the evidence for the effectiveness of draconian lockdowns is less than convincing. As one Lancet study concluded, ‘Rapid border closures, full lockdowns, and wide-spread testing were not associated with COVID-19 mortality per million people’.

  Second, the coronavirus threatens to overwhelm the health and economies of many developing countries where a billion people subsist in a Hobbesian state of nature and life is ‘nasty, brutish and short’. In poor countries, the biggest numbers of deaths are caused by water-borne infectious diseases, nutritional deficiencies and neonatal and maternal complications. 

  The lockdown has produced its own version of Thucydides’ dictum that the strong do what they can, the weak suffer as they must. In developing countries, saving livelihoods is no less important than saving lives. The privileged jet-setters who imported the virus can utilise the private hospitals but the poor they infect have little access to decent healthcare and will be disproportionately devastated. The rich carry the virus, the poor bear the burden since staying at home means foregoing daily income. Millions ‘fear hunger may kill us before coronavirus’.

  I remain very puzzled at how so many people I considered to be liberals have been so utterly indifferent to the plight of the poor and the casual labourers who do not have the luxury of working from home, nor savings to fall back on to tide their family over until they can earn an income again. 

  Celebrities posting videos and selfies of working from home in opulent mansions is positively obscene and revolting. Not surprisingly, given my Indian background, I was powerfully influenced by the visual images of the millions of migrant workers literally on the march by foot over thousands of kilometres trying desperately to make their way back to home villages as all work dried up. 

  Many died en route and the heartbreaking case of Jamlo Madkam in particular, a 12-year old girl who trekked 100km but died of exhaustion just 11km from home, has never stopped haunting me.

  This is not to say that high-income Western countries are immune from the deadly effects of lockdown. But the acuteness of the harsh impacts on the poor is just unconscionable and hard to comprehend intellectually as well as emotionally.

  What about AFTER this pandemic? What worries you the most?

  Most of my answer to this question is anticipated in the answer to the first question: the long-term impact on the health, nutritional requirements, food security, mental wellbeing of people, etcetera. I’ve been worried from the start by the long-term impact of lockdowns over the coming decade on the lives and livelihoods of poor people in poor countries.

  I wonder, too, if we have set ourselves up to repeat the folly every year with annual outbreaks of flu, especially if it is a bad flu season. If not, why not? Perhaps someone will come up with the slogan ‘Flu Lives Matter’. Or governments could just pass laws making it illegal for anyone to fall sick and die.

  How and when are we going to return to the ‘new normal’ and what will it look like? Globalisation has underpinned unprecedented prosperity and the rise of educational and health outcomes for billions of people around the world, along with a dark underbelly of uncivil society. Will its discontents now throw away substantial benefits as the world retreats behind national moats once again?

  The pandemic proves conclusively the need to demilitarise foreign policy and promote greater multilateral cooperation against grave threats that are global in nature and require global solutions. What my former boss, the late Kofi Annan, called ‘problems without passports’ require solutions without passports. The risk is instead we will move in the opposite direction and recreate regionalised balance of power systems in various hotspots around the world.

  Pandemics have long been identified as one of many global challenges for which the world should have prepared in advance. Recently The Wall Street Journal had a major investigative article on the failure to do so, despite ample warnings from scientists. ‘A Deadly Coronavirus Was Inevitable. Why Was No One Ready?’ asked the authors, and quite rightly too. 

  Another catastrophe into which we seem to be sleepwalking is a nuclear war. And remember, the whole point of the sleepwalking analogy is that people walking in their sleep are not aware of it at the time. Other pressing global challenges include growing ecosystem imbalances and fragility, depletion of fish stocks, food and water insecurity, desertification, and of course a host of other diseases that remain the biggest killers on an annual basis.

  Conclusion

  By way of a concluding reflection, I think a common error has been to privilege the medical over all other considerations. In reality, and certainly with the benefit of hindsight but also from the very beginning in my case, this should have involved a considered assessment of what I call ‘A Balance of Interests’ (my chapter in The Oxford Handbook of Modern Diplomacy). Governments must take into account and reconcile medical, social, economic, liberal democratic, human rights and international policies in fashioning an integrated public policy response to a pandemic.

  *  *  *

  Epilogue

  The above is extracted from a long, 3,000 word full page interview featured in a Sunday edition of the Argentine daily La Nación on August 22, 2020 (in Spanish): Hugo Alconada Mon, ‘The Tyranny of Coronaphobia’, INTERVIEW WITH RAMESH THAKUR

  Since then Covid has mutated into multiple variants, mass vaccinations have been carried out in very many countries, and our understanding, data and knowledge have evolved and grown. Despite that, re-reading these two worries each about the policy responses to Covid two years ago and about the possible ramifications for what the post-Covid new normal will look like, I don’t think I would change a single word today. 

  I confess I still don’t understand the global outbreak of collective panic and hysteria, the shelving of all existing pandemic management plans, the failure of medical professions to speak out, and the astonishing public compliance with authoritarian policies.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 19:00

• US Prepares To Send $1 Billion In Latest Ukraine Weapons Package
  US Prepares To Send $1 Billion In Latest Ukraine Weapons Package

  The Biden administration is reportedly about to send $1 billion more in US taxpayer funded aid to Ukraine, in what will be one of the largest packages so far, Reuters reports.

  

  The aid will include munitions for long-range weapons and armored transport vehicles, according to three anonymous sources, who added that the package had not yet been signed by President Biden, and could change in value and content before it’s a done deal. As it currently stands, the assistance includes munitions for HIMARS, NASAMS surface-to-air-missile system ammunition, and up to 50 M113 armored medical transports.

  As Reuters notes, the latest assistance – which could come as early as Monday – would bring the total amount given by the Biden administration to $8.8 billion (or 9 fired Ukrainian prosecutors, if one rounds up), since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

  The new package comes on the heels of a recent Pentagon decision to offer medical treatment to Ukrainians at a US military hospital in Germany near Ramstein air base.

  It also comes on the heels of a separate security assistance package worth up to $550 million which was announced by the Pentagon last Monday, which includes additional ammo for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).

  The new package would be funded under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), in which the president can authorize the transfer of articles and services from U.S. stocks without congressional approval in response to an emergency.

  HIMARS play a key role in the artillery duel between Ukraine and Russia has been described as “grinding” with very little movement of the front line in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

  Since Russian troops poured over the border in February in what Putin termed a “special military operation”, the conflict has settled into a war of attrition fought primarily in the east and south of Ukraine. -Reuters

  The latest round of assistance (which comes two weeks after Ukraine’s first-lady and Vogue magazine ‘Portrait of Bravery‘ Olena Zeleska asked for more weapons) should come as no surprise… after all, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) recently said the quiet part out loud – revealing that as long as US taxpayer funded assistance flows into Ukraine in what he considers ‘the right path,’ they can ‘fight to the last person.’

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 18:40

• Biden Admin Evacuated Hundreds On US Watchlist From Afghanistan: Whistleblower
  Biden Admin Evacuated Hundreds On US Watchlist From Afghanistan: Whistleblower

  Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Two GOP senators have urged the Department of Defense (DoD) to immediately investigate whistleblower allegations that hundreds of Afghan evacuees who appeared on official watchlists were not properly vetted before they were released into the United States.

  

  According to the DoD whistleblower, the Biden administration failed to properly vet 324 Afghan evacuees who appeared on the DoD’s Biometrically Enabled Watchlist (BEWL), which includes known suspected terrorists, said U.S. Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) on Thursday.

  The BEWL identifies individuals whose biometrics have been collected and determined by analysts to be threats or potential threats to national security, including known suspected terrorists.

  

  Hawley and Johnson said the whistleblower also alleges that White House and DoD officials instructed agency personnel to “cut corners” and not conduct full fingerprint tests on the evacuees at staging bases in Europe, “in order to promote the rushed evacuation from Afghanistan.”

  Further, the whistleblower alleges that Department of Homeland Security (DHS) staff were authorized to delete old biometric data at their discretion, said the senators, who went on to say that this is a “troubling development that could threaten national security and public safety.”

  Whistleblower Allegations Raised in Letter

  Hawley and Johnson raised the DoD whistleblower’s allegations with DoD Acting Inspector General Sean O’Donnell in a letter on Thursday (pdf).

  “We write to you with concern over new allegations raised by a Department of Defense (DoD) whistleblower. This information may show the Biden Administration’s failure to vet those evacuated from Afghanistan was even worse than the public was led to believe. The following allegations demand an immediate investigation by your office,” the senators wrote.

  The DoD has previously admitted in a report that the National Counter-Terrorism Center (NCTC) did not vet all Afghan evacuees “using all DoD data prior to arriving in” the United States.

  NEW whistleblower allegations – hundreds of Afghan evacuees who appeared on DOD terror watch list allowed to enter the U.S. ⁦@SenRonJohnson⁩ and I lay out what we’ve learned pic.twitter.com/zBHlVB0ujE

  — Josh Hawley (@HawleyMO) August 4, 2022

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  The DoD earlier this year said that it identified 50 Afghan individuals in the United States whose records indicate they might pose a significant security concern.

  Hawley and Johnson said they “understand that number has risen to at least 65,” and declared that the individuals “need to be immediately located, fully vetted, and, if appropriate, deported.”

  The senators noted that the 324 Afghan individuals allegedly on the watchlist are in addition to the 50 or 65 already identified.

  Answers Sought From DOD

  Hawley and Johnson asked O’Donnell to confirm how many BEWL matches were generated by biometric submissions from Afghan evacuees.

  Of these matches, if any, the senators asked the DoD acting inspector general to clarify if any were denied entry, admitted entry, or currently in the United States.

  The senators also sought information about the allegations that NSC or DoD staff instructed personnel to cut corners in processing the evacuees’ fingerprints, and asked for clarification on the circumstances under which agency personnel may delete biometric data.

  Hawley and Johnson also asked O’Donnell to clarify the number of BEWL matches generated by Afghan evacuees after they arrived; what steps have been taken toward identification, vetting, or deportation; and how many were known suspected terrorists.

  Additionally, the senators asked if the FBI or other law enforcement were investigating the individuals.

  Hawley Grills FBI Director

  At a Senate Judiciary Committee Oversight Hearing on Thursday, Hawley confronted FBI Director Christopher Wray about the whistleblower’s allegations.

  Wray wasn’t able to give a clear answer about the FBI’s efforts to track down and interview the 324 Afghan evacuees, but noted that “there are a number of individuals, through our joint terrorism task forces, that we are actively trying to investigate.”

  The FBI director noted that the agency had disrupted a number of actions related to the evacuees, but did not specify what they were.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 18:20

• China At The Crossroads
  China At The Crossroads

  Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

  Watch where capital is flowing. That’s pretty much all you need to know to predict the future.

  

  The word “China” evokes strong emotions, so let’s set it aside in favor of a simple syllogism:

  1. Certain things matter in all economies.

  2. China is an economy.

  3. Therefore these certain things matter in China.

  Four things matter to all economies:

  1. The flow of capital and talent in or out of an economy.

  2. The productivity of that capital and talent.

  3. The availability and cost of energy.

  4. The stability of the primary foundation of the majority’s wealth.

  Capital and talent flowing into an economy and being productively invested generates prosperity. Capital and talent squandered on unproductive speculation generates bubbles of phantom wealth that eventually pop, destroying the illusion of wealth.

  Capital and talent fleeing an economy generates stagnation and collapse. Capital and talent are democratic in the most basic form: both vote with their feet. Dictators can strut around ordering everyone to wear their underwear on the outside of their clothing, but if people can vote with their feet, he soon finds he’s talking to himself and a handful of clueless cronies.

  The cliche is that capital goes where it’s well-treated. What does that actually mean? It turns out capital and talent both want what the average citizen / participant in the economy wants: stability and predictability. Every participant wants the rules to be visible and predictable, so they can make decisions about where to invest their capital and talent with some confidence that the rules won’t change tomorrow.

  If everything you’ve worked for can be taken from you or you’re no longer able to sell and deploy your capital and talent elsewhere, then why gamble your capital and talent in such an unstable, unpredictable economy at all?

  The more restrictions that are applied to keep capital and talent from fleeing, the greater the incentives for capital and talent to flee. Those that can’t flee just give up and lay down, doing the minimum to survive.

  Capital and talent invested in unproductive bridges to nowhere and speculative bubbles generate a brief explosion of illusory wealth. The workers and enterprises building the bridges to nowhere spend their earnings, boosting consumption, and the incoming tide of capital chasing speculative gains boosts the value of the assets being chased.

  But bridges to nowhere and speculative frenzies don’t actually boost the productivity of capital or labor; they are mal-investments that bleed the economy dry behind a flimsy facade of phantom wealth, a facade generated by the enormous tide of capital gushing into the economy.

  Once the tide recedes as capital votes with its feet, the facade of phantom wealth collapses.

  

  When energy is cheap and abundant, all sorts of things become possible. When energy becomes scarce and costly, all sorts of things are no longer financially viable.

  Economies that only function if energy is cheap and abundant unravel when energy becomes scarce and costly.

  People want to become wealthier, and they will follow whatever trails are open to them to do so. If the economy is structured to funnel most of the majority’s wealth into one asset class, that economy becomes highly dependent on the stability of that asset class for its financial, social and political stability.

  If, for example, the people’s wealth is channeled into real estate to the degree that owning empty flats is considered a form of secure savings as well as a stake in an investment bubble that will never pop, then that economy is extremely vulnerable to the resulting speculative excess collapsing under its own weight.

  When an asset class owned solely by the super-wealthy collapses under its own weight–for example, fine art–the damage to the economy is limited. But when an asset class that is the primary foundation of the majority’s wealth collapses, that is extremely consequential because too much of the economy’s capital has been sunk in an unproductive speculative bubble.

  As strategist Edward Luttwak observed, the funny thing about force is how limited it is in actual efficacy. Forcing capital and talent to stay put doesn’t make people productive. It simply forces a choice: find a way to flee or just give up and stop working hard. After all, what’s the point?

  Every economy in which capital and talent can no longer count on predictability is an economy at the crossroads. As Luttwak explained, force is not the same as power, though many confuse the two. Power attracts capital and talent because they’re being offered stability and predictability. Force tries to shove instability and unpredictability down everyone’s throat and compels then to declare their undying loyalty for instability and unpredictability.

  But capital and talent vote with their feet. If they can’t vote with their feet, they just give up. Any economy in which capital and talent either flee or give up has only one possible end-point: stagnation and collapse.

  In other words, watch where capital is flowing. That’s pretty much all you need to know to predict the future.

  *  *  *

  My new book is now available at a 10% discount this month: When You Can’t Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 17:40

• "Less Drag Queens, More Chuck Norris": Orban Rocks CPAC Texas
  “Less Drag Queens, More Chuck Norris”: Orban Rocks CPAC Texas

  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has fiercely defended his country’s borders, language and culture, gave a 30-minute speech to a crowd of thousands of American admirers in Dallas on Thursday at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

  He painted a picture of America and Hungary facing twin fronts in a struggle against liberalism, globalists, communists, and “fake news.”

  “The West is at war with itself,” he said, adding “The globalist can all go to hell. I have come to Texas.”

  Hungarian Leader Viktor Orban Addresses CPAC: “The globalists can all go to hell. I have come to Texas.” pic.twitter.com/v7iMykmf2I

  — Breaking911 (@Breaking911) August 4, 2022

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  “I can already see tomorrow’s headlines: Far-right European racist, anti-Semite strongman — the Trojan horse of Putin — holds speech at the conservative conference,” he said, to applause and laughter. “They did not want me to be here, and they made every effort to drive a wedge between us. They hate me and slander me and my country as they hate you and slander you,” Orban continued.

  Orban also railed against illegal migration, saying “To stop illegal immigration, we have actually built that wall,” adding that his government was able to “reduce illegal migration to zero.”

  Then, Orban discussed the importance of family and rejecting gender ideology, saying we need to “build a wall around our children” to protect against people who are targeting them.

  “To sum up, the mother is a woman, the father is a man – and leave our kids alone. Full stop, end of discussion!“

  He then said we need “less drag queens and more Chuck Norris,” to loud applause.

  “These two locations will define the two fronts in the battle being fought for Western civilization,” he said, adding “Today we hold neither of them yet. We need both. You have two years to get ready.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 17:20

• Sen. Menendez Pushes Bill To Designate Taiwan 'Major Non-NATO Ally'
  Sen. Menendez Pushes Bill To Designate Taiwan ‘Major Non-NATO Ally’

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  In an op-ed for The New York Times, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called for a major increase in US support for Taiwan that would overhaul US policy toward the island.

  Menendez said that the US can’t make the same “mistake” with Taiwan that it did with Ukraine. He argued that the US didn’t support Kyiv enough to prevent a Russian invasion, even though it’s clear that US meddling in Ukraine was one of President Vladimir Putin’s main motivations for launching the invasion.

  

  “A clear lesson from the war in Ukraine is that authoritarian leaders have been emboldened in recent years by dysfunctional democracies and hesitant international institutions. Accordingly, the United States needs less ambiguity to guide our approach to Taiwan,” Menendez wrote.

  The current US policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan means that Washington won’t say one way or another if it will intervene in the event of a Chinese invasion. But Menendez wants to change that and is also looking to start sending Taiwan billions of dollars in military aid.

  Menendez and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) recently introduced the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022, which would designate Taiwan as a “major non-NATO ally,” authorize $4.5 billion in military aid for the island over four years, and require economic sanctions in response to a Chinese attack.

  Menendez said the legislation “would be the most comprehensive restructuring of US policy toward Taiwan since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979.” The Senate Foreign Relations Committee was set to review the bill on Wednesday, but the review has been delayed.

  Pelosi: “They didn’t say anything when the men came.” A reference to the fact that in April, US senators Lindsey Graham, Bob Menendez, Richard Burr, Ben Sasse, Rob Portman, and Ronny Jackson visited Taiwan. pic.twitter.com/TwW8t36Bxy

  — Melissa Chan (@melissakchan) August 3, 2022

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  While Menendez said the legislation is necessary for deterrence, it would only make war in the region more likely. Chinese officials have warned that US support for Taiwan’s “independence forces” would lead to war, and they would view the bill as a major shift away from the one-China policy.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 08/05/2022 – 17:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Escobar: How A Missile In Kabul Connects To A Speaker In Taipei
  Escobar: How A Missile In Kabul Connects To A Speaker In Taipei

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

  Washington’s hard power display of taking out Al-Qaeda’s Al-Zawahiri will not be reciprocated by Beijing over Pelosi’s provocative visit to Taiwan. It does however, definitively bury the decades-long era of cooperative US-Chinese relations.

  

  This is the way the “Global War on Terror” (GWOT) ends, over and over again: not with a bang, but a whimper.

  Two Hellfire R9-X missiles launched from a MQ9 Reaper drone on the balcony of a house in Kabul. The target was Ayman Al-Zawahiri with a $25 million bounty on his head. The once invisible leader of ‘historic’ Al-Qaeda since 2011, is finally terminated.

  All of us who spent years of our lives, especially throughout the 2000s, writing about and tracking Al-Zawahiri know how US ‘intel’ played every trick in the book – and outside the book – to find him. Well, he never exposed himself on the balcony of a house, much less in Kabul.

  Another disposable asset

  Why now? Simple. Not useful anymore – and way past his expiration date. His fate was sealed as a tawdry foreign policy ‘victory’ – the remixed Obama ‘Osama bin Laden moment’ that won’t even register across most of the Global South. After all, a perception reigns that George W. Bush’s GWOT has long metastasized into the “rules-based,” actually “economic sanctions-based” international order.

  Cue to 48 hours later, when hundreds of thousands across the west were glued to the screen of flighradar24.com (until the website was hacked), tracking “SPAR19” – the US Air Force jet carrying House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – as it slowly crossed Kalimantan from east to west, the Celebes Sea, went northward parallel to the eastern Philippines, and then made a sharp swing westwards towards Taiwan, in a spectacular waste of jet fuel to evade the South China Sea.

  No “Pearl Harbor moment”

  Now compare it with hundreds of millions of Chinese who are not on Twitter but on Weibo, and a leadership in Beijing that is impervious to western-manufactured pre-war, post-modern hysteria.

  Anyone who understands Chinese culture knew there would never be a “missile on a Kabul balcony” moment over Taiwanese airspace. There would never be a replay of the perennial neocon wet dream: a “Pearl Harbor moment.” That’s simply not the Chinese way.

  The day after, as the narcissist Speaker, so proud of accomplishing her stunt, was awarded the Order of Auspicious Clouds for her promotion of bilateral US-Taiwan relations, the Chinese Foreign Minister issued a sobering comment: the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland is a historical inevitability.

  That’s how you focus, strategically, in the long game.

  What happens next had already been telegraphed, somewhat hidden in a Global Times report. Here are the two key points:

  Point 1: “China will see it as a provocative action permitted by the Biden administration rather than a personal decision made by Pelosi.”

  That’s exactly what President Xi Jinping had personally told the teleprompt-reading White House tenant during a tense phone call last week. And that concerns the ultimate red line.

  Xi is now reaching the exact same conclusion reached by Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this year: the United States is “non-agreement capable,” and there’s no point in expecting it to respect diplomacy and/or rule of law in international relations.

  Point 2 concerns the consequences, reflecting a consensus among top Chinese analysts that mirrors the consensus at the Politburo: “The Russia-Ukraine crisis has just let the world see the consequence of pushing a major power into a corner… China will steadily speed up its process of reunification and declare the end of US domination of the world order.”

  Chess, not checkers

  The Sinophobic matrix predictably dismissed Xi’s reaction to the fact on the ground – and in the skies – in Taiwan, complete with rhetoric exposing the “provocation by American reactionaries” and the “uncivilized campaign of the imperialists.”

  This may be seen as Xi playing Chairman Mao. He may have a point, but the rhetoric is pro forma. The crucial fact is that Xi was personally humiliated by Washington and so was the Communist Party of China (CPC), a major loss of face – something that in Chinese culture is unforgivable. And all that compounded with a US tactical victory.

  So the response will be inevitable, and it will be classic Sun Tzu: calculated, precise, tough, long-term and strategic – not tactical. That takes time because Beijing is not ready yet in an array of mostly technological domains. Putin had to wait years for Russia to act decisively. China’s time will come.

  For now, what’s clear is that as much as with Russia-US relations last February, the Rubicon has been crossed in the US-China sphere.

  The price of collateral damage

  The Central Bank of Afghanistan bagged a paltry $40 million in cash as ‘humanitarian aid’ soon after that missile on a balcony in Kabul.

  So that was the price of the Al-Zawahiri operation, intermediated by the currently US-aligned Pakistani intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). So cheap.

  The MQ-9 Reaper drone carrying the two Hellfire R9X that killed Al-Zawahiri had to fly over Pakistani airspace – taking off from a US base in the Persian Gulf, traversing the Arabian Sea, and flying over Balochistan to enter Afghanistan from the south. The Americans may have also got human intelligence as a bonus.

  A 2003 deal, according to which Islamabad facilitates air corridors for US military flights, may have expired with the American withdrawal debacle last August, but could always be revived.

  No one should expect a deep dive investigation on what exactly the ISI – historically very close to the Taliban – gave to Washington on a silver platter.

  Dodgy dealings

  Cue to an intriguing phone call last week between the all-powerful Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Army, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, and US deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman. Bajwa was lobbying for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to release a crucial loan at the soonest, otherwise Pakistan will default on its foreign debt.

  Were deposed former Prime Minister Imran Khan still in power, he would never have allowed that phone call.

  The plot thickens, as Al-Zawahiri’s Kabul digs in a posh neighborhood is owned by a close advisor to Sirajuddin Haqqani, head of the “terrorist” (US-defined) Haqqani network and currently Taliban Interior Minister. The Haqqani network, needless to add, was always very cozy with the ISI.

  And then, three months ago, we had the head of ISI, Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum, meeting with Biden’s National Security Advisor  Jake Sullivan in Washington – allegedly to get their former, joint, covert, counter-terrorism machinery back on track.

  Once again, the only question revolves around the terms of the “offer you can’t refuse” – and that may be connected to IMF relief. Under these circumstances, Al-Zawahiri was just paltry collateral damage.

  Sun Tzu deploys his six blades

  Following Speaker Pelosi’s caper in Taiwan, collateral damage is bound to multiply like the blades of a R9-X missile.

  The first stage is the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) already having engaged in live fire drills, with massive shelling in the direction of the Taiwan Strait out of Fujian province.

  The first sanctions are on too, against two Taiwanese funds. Export of sable to Taiwan is forbidden; sable is an essential commodity for the electronics industry – so that will ratchet up the pain dial in high-tech sectors of the global economy.

  Chinese CATL, the world’s largest fuel cell and lithium-ion battery maker, is indefinitely postponing the building of a massive $5 billion, 10,000-employee factory that would manufacture batteries for electric vehicles across North America, supplying Tesla and Ford among others.

  So the Sun Tzu maneuvering ahead will essentially concentrate on a progressive economic blockade of Taiwan, the imposition of a partial no-fly zone, severe restrictions of maritime traffic, cyber warfare, and the Big Prize: inflicting pain on the US economy.

  The War on Eurasia

  For Beijing, playing the long game means the acceleration of the process involving an array of nations across Eurasia and beyond, trading in commodities and manufactured products in their own currencies. They will be progressively testing a new system that will see the advent of a BRICS+/SCO/Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) basket of currencies, and in the near future, a new reserve currency.

  The Speaker’s escapade was concomitant to the definitive burial of the “war on terror” cycle and its metastasis into the “war on Eurasia” era.

  It may have unwittingly provided the last missing cog to turbo-charge the complex machinery of the Russia-China strategic partnership. That’s all there is to know about the ‘strategic’ capability of the US political ruling class. And this time no missile on a balcony will be able to erase the new era.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 23:40

• Watch: Gun Hobbyist Makes "100% Working 3D-Printed Gun" That Fires Plastic Ammo
  Watch: Gun Hobbyist Makes “100% Working 3D-Printed Gun” That Fires Plastic Ammo

  War journalist Jake Hanrahan, the founder of independent media platform “Popular Front,” tweeted a video that shows a gun hobbyist firing plastic ammunition from a “100% 3D-printed gun.” 

  Hanrahan said gun hobbyist @SuckBoyTony1, who designs and builds 3D-printed firearms that are electronically ignited, created a “working 100% 3D-printed gun.” He continued: “The barrel and even the ammunition is plastic.”

  3D-printed gun hobbyist @SuckBoyTony1 has made a working 100% 3D-printed gun. The barrel and even the ammunition is plastic. Whilst this obviously isn’t a practical weapon, the potential implications of the concept are fascinating. pic.twitter.com/EbR8njUVNx

  — Jake Hanrahan (@Jake_Hanrahan) August 4, 2022

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  Some of our questions about the homemade firearm’s plastic barrel and ammunition were answered by one Twitter commenter:

  “The barrel actually is rifled…and so is the round. He based it off the whitworth rifle. IIRC the bullet is a metal projectile but the whole cartridge leaves the barrel effectively making it caseless ammunition.” 

  SuckBoyTony1 responded to another commenter by saying the plastic caseless ammunition was packed with black powder and electronically ignited. 

  Plastic-cased ammunition is a technology the Army is working on to reduce firing and weight for next-generation squad weapons. 

  “Whilst this obviously isn’t a practical weapon, the potential implications of the concept are fascinating,” Hanrahan concluded. 

  As we’ve pointed out, printing guns at home costs as much as $350 but involves metal pieces for the barrel that must be bought. Plus, ammunition must be purchased. Now it appears a gun hobbyist has entirely printed a gun (barrel included) and ammunition, all at home, which renders gun control useless. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 23:20

• US Risks Provoking North Korea's Kim By Holding Drills Simulating His Assassination
  US Risks Provoking North Korea’s Kim By Holding Drills Simulating His Assassination

  Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

  The US and South Korea are planning new war games where they will simulate taking out North Korea’s military leadership, including the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, The Daily Beast reported on Wednesday.

  The drills will simulate targeting Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear sites plus bases needed to supply them. Sources familiar told The Daily Beast that the war games will end with a “decapitation” exercise where they attack North Korea’s command structure and take out Kim.

  

  According to the report, the US will not publicly acknowledge that they are practicing killing Kim in the war games. Washington and Seoul haven’t held such exercises since President Trump canceled them in 2018 after meeting with Kim.

  The last time the war games were held was in 2017, and Kim responded by ordering an underground nuclear weapons test. The North hasn’t launched a nuclear test since, but the US is risking provoking one by simulating Kim’s assassination.

  Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and his South Korean counterpart, Lee Jong-sup, agreed to restart the drills last weekend. When they were held last about 50,000 South Korean troops, and 20,000 US troops participated.

  The renewed war games come after South Korea’s new President Yoon Suk-yeol said he would strengthen military ties with the US. His predecessor, Moon Jae-in, was a proponent of peaceful reunification with the North, and Yoon has said he will take a tougher stance on Pyongyang.

  Yoon seeks the return of US nuclear bombers and submarines to South Korean territory. The US removed all of its nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula in 1991.

  Experts see a fiery speech this week by Kim Jong Un as a bid to cast an expected seventh nuclear test as a justifiable response to full-scale joint military drills by the U.S. and South Korea, which are set to resume within weeks.https://t.co/CBPywuMSs3

  — Wisconsin Project (@WisconsinProj) August 1, 2022

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  The Biden administration has maintained that it’s open to talks with Pyongyang but hasn’t offered any incentives to bring them to the table, such as sanctions relief. The North restarted launching missile tests last year, and the US has been warning that they may be preparing for a nuclear test.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 23:00

• July Payrolls Preview: What's Better For Markets 400K Or A Negative Print?
  July Payrolls Preview: What’s Better For Markets 400K Or A Negative Print?

  Heading into tomorrow’s main event – the nonfarm payrolls print (which is the appetizer for CPI next Wednesday), JPMorgan’s trading desk asked a rhetorical question: what’s better for markets: 50K or 400K jobs for NFP?

  It answered as follows: “50K NFP gets the Fed closer to “Mission Accomplished” as they are nearly there with housing markets (lower prices pending). I think a 400k print would have bond yields reprice higher, potentially taking the 10Y yield above 3% which has acted as a resistance point for Equities, recently.”

  In other words, good news is bad, and bad news is great news, precisely as we said would be the norm moments after last week’s Powell presser in which he said that forward guidance is now dead and instead the Fed is data dependent.

  Goldman agrees, and flow trader John Flood writes in his EOD wrap that “we are firmly in a BAD is GOOD and vice versa tape right now.” He adds that whereas Goldman estimates a +225k headline print (vs +372 prior and +250k consensus). In this context:

  • The market “will get hit hard (-200bps) on a print north of 372k (>prior reading) as sooner than expected “fed pivot” convos will quickly be shelved.”
  • On the other hand, “a relatively inline print (150k – 300k) mkt wont react to as traders will sit on hands and wait for CPI.”
  • Finally, “if jobs are lost and we get a negative print, tape will rally 100+bps as FOMO/COVER chase will (remain) on w/ early 2023 rate cut discussions gaining more momentum.”

  Taking a step back, let’s take a look at what Wall Street expects tomorrow courtesy of Newsquawk:

  • In July, the US economy is expected to add 250k nonfarm payrolls in July, with the pace of payroll additions cooling again amid tight labor market conditions. However, as we first observed one month ago, the slowdown in the Establishment survey has already been apparent in the Household Survey where there has been no jobs growth since March.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.6%.
  • Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% from June and 4.9% from a year ago, down from the 5.1% increase a month earlier.

  

  • The July jobs report will also give us a glimpse of how the key initial data prints from Q3 are shaping up, and whether there was anything more to the ‘technical’ weakness seen in Q2. If the headline were to significantly top the consensus estimate, it would add fuel to the argument that the labor market remains strong, and provide the Fed with scope to lift rates by a larger increment if it deemed necessary.
  • Conversely, a downside surprise would add to arguments highlighting slowing growth momentum in the US, and embolden those who have suggested that the central bank will need to lower rates next year to support an economy that is falling into a recession.

  Wage inflation:

  • Average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.3% M/M in July, matching the rate of the prior month, while the annual measure is seen easing by 0.2ppts to 4.9% Y/Y.
  • Analysts have recently noted that various measures of wage growth are sending conflicting signals: the component within the jobs report has been easing in the first half of the year, but the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker has been rising, for instance.
  • In terms of the Fed’s own focus, at his post-meeting press conference in July, Chair Powell flagged the Employment Cost Index series as a key metric that officials would consider when setting policy. And within the Q2 ECI report, the wages and salaries component, which analysts use as a gauge of labor market tightness, rose by 1.6% on a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, picking-up from the previous 1.3%; at an annualized rate, this equates to around 6.5% Y/Y, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics.
    • “Wage gains at this pace are far too high for the Fed, because they would require implausible rapid productivity growth in order to be consistent with the inflation target in the medium-term,” it said, “a lot more data will be released before the September Fed meeting, but this is not a great start for investors looking for the Fed to slow the pace of tightening.”
  • Going forward, Goldman Sachs (which projects nonfarm payrolls rose by 225k in July, 25k below consensus and a slowdown from the +372k pace in June) expects wage growth to begin slowing, and offers three reasons to support this argument:
    • the firmness in wage growth last year and early 2022 was likely a reflection of one-off factors related to the pandemic that are no longer relevant,
    • the breadth of wage gains has fallen in recent months,
    • forward-looking wage growth expectations have started to moderate.

  Policy Significance:

  • Fed officials have been looking through recent growth data that showed the US economy contract for two consecutive quarters, which some define as a ‘technical’ recession. Policymakers have argued that US economic performance is not consistent with recessionary conditions, with their case heavily premised on job gains being robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate remaining low.
  • July’s data will perhaps carry more weight than in recent months since it could be more influential in determining the outcome of the September FOMC meeting. The Fed has indicated that it is now setting policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis, where incoming data will be the basis of its policy decisions; that said, the central bank has also suggested that inflation remains its primary policy focus, and it is prepared to take monetary policy into restrictive territory to cap the upside surge in prices, and accordingly, the central bank is still expected to aggressively tighten rates, with many officials noting that there is much work to be done to bring inflation back down.
  • Currently, money market pricing for the September FOMC meeting is split between a rate hike of 50bps or 75bps from the current 2.25-2.50% neutral level; beyond September, markets are betting that rates will rise to 3.25-3.50% by year-end, before easing to 2.75-3.00% over the course of 2023.

  Market reaction:

  • Traders will use the data to shape expectations of how the Fed will set policy at its September meeting: the central bank is in a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting mode, as it focuses on bringing inflation back to target.
  • Accordingly, any upside surprise for the headline and wages will give the central bank scope to move rates higher by a larger increment in September, whereas any downside surprise to the headline may indicate that the slowing growth momentum has crept into Q3, and any downside surprise in the wages component may allow the central bank to revert to a smaller increment of rate hikes.

  Arguing for a weaker-than-expected report:

  • Seasonal factors. The July seasonal factors have evolved unfavorably in recent years, with a month-over-month hurdle for private payrolls of +240k in July 2021 and +209k in July 2020 compared to negative hurdles throughout the 2010s (including -54k in July 2015, which was also a 5-week July payroll months; see Exhibit 1). There is a possibility that the July seasonal factors are overfitting to the reopening-related job surges in the summer of 2020 and 2021. This higher seasonal hurdle represents a headwind of roughly 250k, in our view, other things equal. Goldman also believes a difficult seasonal factor weighed on the June report (by roughly 200k).

  

  • Big Data. High-frequency data on the labor market generally were mixed in July, with a solid rise in the Homebase data but outright declines in the Google and Census Pulse measures. However, Big Data measures generally understated BLS payroll growth in Q2 (which may suggest that BLS payroll data is overstated).

  

  • Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims increased from very low levels during the July payroll month, averaging 243k per week vs. 225k in June. Continuing claims in regular state programs increased 44k from survey week to survey week. Employer surveys. The employment components of business surveys generally decreased in July. Our services survey employment tracker decreased by 0.4pt to 54.0 and our manufacturing survey employment tracker decreased by 0.6pt to 55.2.

  Arguing for a stronger-than-expected report:

  • Education seasonality. We assume +75k for the education sector in tomorrow’s report (mom sa, public and private). Education payrolls remain 200k below pre-crisis (public and private), and we expect fewer-than-normal janitors and support staff leaving for the summer.
  • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas decreased 15.0% month-over-month in July, after increasing 79.0% in June (SA by GS). Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—declined by 2.1pt to +37.8 but remained high. JOLTS job openings decreased by 605k in June to 10.7mn but remain very elevated.

  Neutral/mixed factors:

  • Labor supply constraints. When the labor market is tight, job growth tends to slow but remain strong in July, as shown in Exhibit 3. This may reflect the arrival of the summer youth labor force and an associated easing in hiring difficulty.

  

  • ADP. The ADP report was not published this month as the company revamps their model. ADP is targeting August 31 for their next update.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 22:40

• Infuriated China Cancels Bilateral Meeting With Japan Over G-7 Statement On Taiwan
  Infuriated China Cancels Bilateral Meeting With Japan Over G-7 Statement On Taiwan

  In the latest significant sign of fast deteriorating Japan-China relations, China’s foreign ministry announced Thursday that its top diplomat will no longer meet with his Japanese counterpart, which was expected in a scheduled meeting today on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Cambodia.

  Beijing’s last-minute cancelation and diplomatic rebuke is in retaliation for Japan participating in a G-7 joint statement released the day prior condemning China’s response to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan Tuesday into Wednesday. Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s expected meeting with Japan FM Yoshimasa Hayashi was called off during a foreign ministry press conference. Crucially, Wang is also now refusing to meet with Antony Blinken.

  

  “We are concerned by recent and announced threatening actions by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), particularly live-fire exercises and economic coercion, which risk unnecessary escalation,” the G-7 communique stated.

  Beijing reacted angrily, underscoring that it was Pelosi’s trip that violated China’s “sovereignty” and the status quote One China principle.

  Making matters worse on Thursday, missiles launched over and toward Taiwan as part of the PLA’s show of force and muscle flexing landed inside Japanese exclusive economic zone (EEZ) for the first time, according to Japan’s defense ministry.

  According to details of the incident, “all five of the missiles that landed within Japan’s EEZ — which extends 200 nautical miles (370 kilometers) from Japan’s coast — had fallen into waters southwest of Hateruma Island in Okinawa Prefecture,” Japan Times writes.

  And further, “In Okinawa Prefecture, Yonaguni Island — located just 110 kilometers from Taiwan — as well and Miyako Island, are home to Ground Self-Defense Force bases, while construction is currently underway on another base for surface-to-air and surface-to-ship missile units on Ishigaki Island.

  Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi told a news briefing, “This is a grave issue that concerns our country’s national security and people’s safety.”

  On Aug. 4, Japan’s Ministry of Defense announced that China had launched nine ballistic missiles into the waters surrounding Japan and Taiwan. Five of them landed in Japan’s EEZ. pic.twitter.com/cCyCGAPFbo

  — Japan Embassy Defense Section DC (@JapanEmbDCDef) August 4, 2022

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  Tokyo’s leadership, like much of the West, has long been worried that any mainland China move on self-ruled Taiwan would set off an emergency across Japanese industries, given Taiwan is a prime semi-conductor maker and supplier, also as crucial shipping lanes off Japan would be blocked in such a scenario.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 22:40

• Scaling Ethereum: The Role Of Rollups
  Scaling Ethereum: The Role Of Rollups

  Authored by Conor Ryder via Kaiko.com,

  The growth of Decentralized Finance and more recently NFTs exposed Ethereum’s lack of scaling solutions for all to see. During the Bored Ape Yacht Club land sale only a few months ago, buyers paid over $10,000 in transaction fees per NFT, which surpassed the $6,000 or so price tag of the NFT itself. These transaction costs rear their ugly head every time the Ethereum network becomes congested – think times of extreme volatility like the Terra collapse or the Celsius crisis recently. Whatever your thoughts on Ether as an investment, the fact that the cost of using the network can exceed the price of the item being bought is a clear sign that the Ethereum blockchain isn’t fit for purpose in its current state.

  This Deep Dive will take a look at the data behind Layer 2 rollups, Ethereum’s quickest solution for scaling the network in the short term.

  There are two main ways to scale Ethereum:

  1. Improve the transaction capacity of the blockchain itself. The most effective way to upgrade the blockchain but also the most complicated. Sharding and other upgrades may not be seen for another year or more.

  2. Move to Layer 2. Instead of doing all the computational work on Layer 1 (Ethereum blockchain), a solution is to move the bulk of the work to Layer 2 – an off-chain network that reduces the computational strain on the Ethereum mainchain. The Layer 2 protocols responsible for achieving this scalability solution are called rollups. Layer 2 rollups are the fastest way to help Ethereum scale in the short term.

  Blockchain Improvements

  Improvements are being planned to the Ethereum network, most notably the Merge in September, which should see the energy consumption of the Ethereum blockchain reduced by about 99%. However, contrary to what some may think, the Merge itself won’t be a big factor in helping Ethereum solve its scalability issues. These fixes are due to come later in 2023 when the network begins the process of sharding. Sharding is beyond the scope of this deep dive but it essentially entails splitting the network into shards or seperate pieces in order to reduce congestion and improve transaction throughput. Transaction throughput is where Ethereum struggles compared to its ambitions to be the backbone of a new financial system. Currently, Ethereum can only handle about 15 transactions per second, compared to Visa’s 24,000 and Solana’s 50,000.

  

  Only when Ethereum completes its roadmap of sharding and other updates to the blockchain will it reach the elusive 100,000 transactions per second. We can see that optimistic and zK rollups offer respectable throughput improvements and when we factor in that there are, and will be, multiple protocols offering capacity for transactions, that throughput number starts to approach Visa’s level. In the absence of widespread upgrades to the blockchain, rollups definitely serve a purpose for the Ethereum network in the near term – with lower fees comes more adoption.

  Ethereum Fees

  Transaction fees on the Ethereum network are currently at their lowest levels since December 2020.

  

  A falling transaction fee is exactly what Ethereum needs, however in this instance it’s related to a lack of demand. TVL of DeFi projects has plummeted while NFTs are in their first ever bear market, all combining to bring blockspace demand to recent lows. However, the low fees do offer us a glimpse into how Ethereum users might interact with protocols in the future if the fees weren’t so prohibitive. As decentralized exchange volume decreases year to date, one would assume that this paints a sufficient picture of the activity on these platforms. However, an interesting trend to examine is trade count, which arguably shows the actual usage on an exchange. Trade size is also a useful barometer for whale vs. retail activity and for the purposes of this article, a smaller trade size is indicative of more retail usage.

  Take Uniswap and Curve for example, Ethereum’s two largest decentralized exchanges by volume. Have users adjusted their behaviors in light of the lower fees?

  

  The answer is yes. The lowest transaction fees in nearly two years have seen trade sizes on the decentralized exchanges, such as Uniswap above, plummet while trade count actually rises. More trades are being placed by Uniswap users as transaction costs are low. Lower fees make DeFi more accessible to the average user and less geared towards whales, a nuance that is most definitely pivotal for the adoption of DeFi. 

  One decentralized exchange that is geared towards whales is Curve, an exchange specializing in stablecoin trading. We’ve observed a similar trend there where average trade size has fallen by over 80% while trade count rises.

  

  In contrast, Coinbase volumes are hovering around yearly lows as average trade size and trade count are both moving lower.

  In bear markets, volumes plummet on centralized exchanges as general interest among the public wanes. DeFi, however, still has plenty of use cases during a bear market (look at Curve’s role in the Terra collapse) and we can see that one factor of on-chain activity is Ethereum transaction fees, rather than general interest. 

  Reducing fees is priority number one for the Ethereum community in order to drive underlying adoption of the network. The quickest way to do that is via rollups.

  State of Rollups

  There are two main types of rollups, Optimistic and zK rollups, and their cost saving benefits have been clear to see already. Below are the fee comparisons between various Layer 2’s and Ethereum, according to l2fees.info.

  

  Optimistic and zK rollups mainly differ on their treatment of transaction veracity – how do we know the block being sent back to the Ethereum network does not contain fake transactions?

  Optimistic Rollups

  Optimistic rollups (ORs) presume transactions are valid when sending rolled up transactions back to the Ethereum blockchain, hence the name Optimistic. This assumption can be tested with a process called fraud proofs, where an onlooker can claim a transaction is fraudulent. The period for this usually spans 7 days, which is widely accepted as the biggest drawback of optimistic rollups. An exchange might logistically struggle to support immediate withdrawals if it was subject to a 7 day waiting period on transactions. 

  The two largest ORs are Arbitrum, which has yet to release a token, and Optimism, which launched a token on June 1st this year. There are other Layer 2 protocols with tokens that investors can get exposure to, such as Boba, a governance token for the Boba network, another optimistic rollup. Dydx is also a governance token, this time for the operation of the Layer 2 version of the decentralized exchange, which depends on zK rollups. IMX is a Layer 2 scaling solution for NFTs on Ethereum and differs slightly from the other governance tokens as it also can be used to pay transaction fees on the platform.

  The market seemed to start arriving at the conclusion that optimistic rollups were just a band aid over a bigger issue as since the Optimism (OP) token launch, it underperformed not only ETH but also other Layer 2 protocols. 

  

  However, with the announcement of a final date for the Merge, the market became more bullish on the Ethereum blockchain as a whole and Optimism started to outperform. This bullish sentiment is also evident in the futures market for OP which has seen a large buildup of open interest while the funding rate has moved positive in the last week.

  

  zK Rollups

  While Optimistic rollups presume all transactions are valid and allow onlookers to submit fraud proofs, “Zero knowledge” (zK) rollups do the work of validating each transaction themselves by submitting a validity proof along with each bundle of transactions. This is why they are more computationally intensive and up until recently, not EVM compatible, but it is also why they are far faster at settlements and withdrawals – there is no need for a window for fraud proof. This near-instant settlement is extremely appealing to exchanges who need to be able to satisfy user withdrawals in a timely manner; exactly why dydx has already adopted a zK rollup on Layer 2.

  Due to the computational intensity of zK rollups, OR’s were initially rolled out quickest while developers worked on what was deemed the ‘holy grail’ of rollups, a zK rollup that was EVM compatible. In the last couple of weeks we may have witnessed the beginning of the zK rollup era, as three teams, Polygon, Matter Labs and Scroll, all announced breakthroughs with EVM compatible zK rollups. 

  Layer 2s and DEXs

  Looking specifically at Uniswap and Curve’s breakdown of TVL, we can see that only a small portion of their value sit on Layer 2 optimistic rollups (Optimism and Arbitrum): 1.9% on Uniswap and 1.8% on Curve. Uniswap currently has 97% of TVL sitting on the Ethereum mainchain, while Curve has 92%. It’s reasonable to expect that once a zK EVM compatible rollup is rolled out that this number will decrease and move towards Layer 2, allowing more DEX users to avail of the cheaper fees on offer.

  

  Conclusion

  Layer 2 rollups are an essential part of Ethereum’s short/mid-term scaling strategy and possibly even in the long term as the rollups will sit on top of the improved Ethereum network. 

  It looks as if zK rollups are beginning to arbitrage away the competitive advantages of optimistic rollups, and if the teams working on an EVM compatible zK rollup can successfully launch their products, I expect them to gain a large amount of market share, potentially with traffic directed from decentralized exchanges.  

  Vitalik Buterin: “my advice to teams like Optimism and Arbitrum is that I think they should start zK-ifying themselves fairly soon.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 22:20

• White House Orders US Carrier Strike Group To Stay Near Taiwan Longer Than Planned, Says China 'Overreacting'
  White House Orders US Carrier Strike Group To Stay Near Taiwan Longer Than Planned, Says China ‘Overreacting’

  Update(1718ET): The United States says it’s watching ongoing Chinese military drills around Taiwan very closely, while condemning the latest series of ballistic missiles fired over the island as a severe provocation and escalation. The White House has ordered the Ronald Reagan carrier strike group to stay in the area.

  US National Security Council (NSC) spokesman John Kirby said in statements to MSNBC Thursday: “We’ve been watching this very, very closely. It’s concerning. It’s not just concerning to us, but it’s concerning, of course, to the people of Taiwan. It’s concerning to to our allies in the region, especially Japan.”

  “The provocateur here is Beijing. They didn’t have to react this way to what is completely normal travel by congressional members to Taiwan…The Chinese are the ones who are escalating this,” Kirby added. He warned further, “One of the things that’s troublesome about exercises like this or missile launches like this is the risk of calculation, the risk of a mistake that could actually lead to some sort of conflict,” he said.

  Location (as of yesterday) of 3 US Navy carrier/expeditionary strike groups—USS Ronald Reagan, USS Tripoli & USS America —currently operating in Asian waters around 🇹🇼.
  Map also shows the locations of the 2 Chinese PLA Navy carriers: Liaoning & Shandong. (via @IndoPac_Info) pic.twitter.com/2YoHZS4R41

  — Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) August 4, 2022

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  Kirby in a press briefing at the White House also said it’s Beijing that “chose to overreact” to Nancy Pelosi’s visit:

  “We condemn these actions, which are irresponsible and at odds with our long-standing goal of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the region,” Kirby told reporters at the White House. “China has chosen to overreact and use the speaker’s visit as a pretext to increase provocative military activity in and around the Taiwan Strait.”

  Both Taiwan officials, but more importantly Chinese officials and state media have acknowledged that effectively a blockade of the self-ruled island is in progress.

  And somewhat alarming for the prospect of ‘inadvertent’ aggression between the PLA and US navies, Kirmy affirmed that the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group plans to continue ‘freedom of navigation’ maneuvers through the Taiwan Strait.

  According to more details on the US strike group,

  On Thursday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier and its strike group “to remain in the general area to monitor the situation,” Kirby said.

  “They’ll be there for a little bit longer than they were originally planned,” said Kirby. “I won’t get ahead of the ship’s schedule but the president believed it was a prudent thing to do, to leave her and her escort ships there just a little bit longer.”

  The U.S. will also conduct “standard air and maritime transits through the Taiwan Strait in the next few weeks, consistent with our long-standing approach to defending the freedom of the seas and international law,” he added.

  

  So the strike group will linger longer as the PLA conducts unprecedented in size live fire drills, which will only increase the chances of an ‘incident’ between the two rival superpowers as Taiwan’s population continues to be on edge. 

  * * *

  Update(11:17ET): In another ominous sign signaling China intends to escalate its threatening and retaliatory military drills now encircling Taiwan, state-run Global Times has cited a source saying that a PLA aircraft carrier group with a nuclear-powered submarine has now joined the ongoing exercises off Taiwan.

  Additionally, the English-language government mouthpiece GT is now calling the five-day drill that have commenced a rehearsal for a “reunification operation” – and says that after Pelosi’s provocative and damaging visit, “exercises blockading” Taiwan are to “become routine”. 

  This as Japan’s Foreign Ministry has said Thursday evening (local time) that five missiles fired by China have landed within Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Taiwan’s defense ministry, has meanwhile said 22 more Chinese air force jets have buzzed its airspace.

  China firing long range rockets from Fujian across Taiwan Strait pic.twitter.com/N2trr4gjft

  — Carl Zha (@CarlZha) August 4, 2022

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  Another angle of Chinese long range rockets firing across Taiwan Strait today pic.twitter.com/RpZutl9SKe

  — Carl Zha (@CarlZha) August 4, 2022

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  Further, videos of the PLA firing missiles over Taiwan are now circulating on social media, appearing to show local citizens in some locales filming and watching as if it’s a patriotic spectacle… 

  The PRC government has also released official footage of some of its latest ballistic missile launches which landed in waters off the self-ruled island…

  FLASH: 5 ballistic missiles launched by China fell into Japan’s exclusive economic zone during military drills near Taiwan. Japan lodged a diplomatic protest in response. Take a look:pic.twitter.com/LXBxEB3Q5j

  — Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) August 4, 2022

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  Beijing is also threatening tougher sanctions to come against Taipei, in order to squeeze the pro-independence movement in Taipei. GT frames the latest economic punishment measures as follows:

  Following the Chinese mainland’s suspension of imports of several agricultural products from the island of Taiwan, which is viewed as a sort of punishing fallout from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit, residents from the island’s agricultural and business sectors, as well as some local netizens, have expressed dissatisfaction with the secessionist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), given the close connection between the island and the huge mainland market. 

  Starting on Wednesday, Chinese mainland customs authorities suspended the entry of citrus fruits including grapefruits, lemons and oranges, as well as two types of fish (chilled large head hairtail and frozen horse mackerel) from the island, in accordance with regulations and food safety requirements.

  Taiwan TV EBC shows video filmed by fishermen off Keelung, northern Taiwan, of China’s live fire drills. Boat captain said he turned around back to Port when he saw this. pic.twitter.com/DbPrCutfuK

  — Bill Birtles (@billbirtles) August 4, 2022

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  China is saying this is only the beginning of the 5-day military exercises, identifying major military assets that have joined, including the following:

  • J-20 stealth fighter jets
  • H-6K bombers, J-11 fighter jets
  • Type 052D destroyer
  • Type 056A corvette
  • DF-11 short-range ballistic missiles
  • Early warning aircraft
  • DF-17 hypersonic missiles.

  Meanwhile, the US also has serious military assets near Taiwan, including the USS Ronald Reagan carrier group…

  US Airforce spy plane Boeing RC-135 on the way to observe Chinese military exercise around Taiwan island pic.twitter.com/qnAljtE4MW

  — Carl Zha (@CarlZha) August 4, 2022

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  * * *

  China has kicked off its latest round of war drills Thursday aimed at encircling and pressuring Taiwan in the wake of this week’s House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visit to the self-ruled island, the day after she departed and continued on her Asia tour to South Korea.

  According to China’s People’s Daily, this has included PLA command dispatching “hundreds” of fighter jets to enter airspace off the northern, southwestern and southeastern airspaces of the island, at a moment Taiwan’s defense forces are on a heightened state of alert. On Wednesday some half a dozen jets were reported as having breached the ‘median line’ separating the Taiwan Strait. Beijing is promising in essence this is only the beginning. 

  WATCH: More than a hundred PLA warplanes including fighter jets and bombers conducted joint reconnaissance, air assault and support missions, and more than 10 destroyers and frigates conducted a joint blockade, alert patrol and reconnaissance, around Taiwan island on Thu. pic.twitter.com/xa0YU4K5U5

  — Global Times (@globaltimesnews) August 4, 2022

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  And more alarming, China launched a series of ballistic missiles into waters off Taiwan, with some having flown over the island. “Taiwan has confirmed that mainland China launched 11 Dongfeng series missiles into waters north, south and east of the island on Thursday afternoon, a day after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi left Taipei,” South China Morning Post reports.

  “The island’s defence ministry said the 11 DF series missiles were fired between 1.56pm and 4pm. It is the first time mainland missiles have flown over the island.” 

  Taipei’s defense ministry immediately condemned the severe provocation: “The defence ministry condemned the irrational actions to undermine regional peace,” a statement said. Taiwan further called on Beijing to be “self-restrained”.

  

  Taiwanese media outlets are reporting of the unprecedented missile flyover of the island:

  People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command Spokesman Shi Yi that afternoon announced that the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command Rocket Force launched a “multi-regional and multi-model exercise” in the waters off the coast of eastern Taiwan, according to China’s state-run TV broadcaster CCTV. Shi claimed that the guided missiles all “hit their targets accurately.”

  

  Already there has been a ‘close call’ incident between the two militaries:

  Earlier, it [Taiwan’s military] revealed suspected Chinese drones had flown above the Kinmen Islands, Taiwanese territory off China’s southeastern coast, and it had fired flares to drive them away.

  Major General Chang Zone-sung of the military’s Kinmen Defense Command told the Reuters news agency that the Chinese drones came in a pair and flew into the Kinmen area twice on Wednesday night, at about 9pm (13:00 GMT) and 10pm (14:00 GMT).

  Warning flared were then fired: “We immediately fired flares to issue warnings and to drive them away. After that, they turned around. They came into our restricted area and that’s why we dispersed them,” the Taiwanese general said.

  While China had quickly started snap drills as Pelosi’s Air Force plane – reportedly with US fighter jet escort – landed in Taipei earlier this week, Thursday marks the start of more expansive live-fire drills around the whole island, slated to last five days.

  The next five days will include live-fire drills and missile tests surrounding the island in these reported locations, as detailed in Chinese state media publications…

  

  Meanwhile, China is furious over a prior day Group of Seven (G7) statement condemning its military drills. The G7 warned Beijing not to use Pelosi’s visit as “pretext for aggressive military activity in the Taiwan Strait”.

  In protest, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has within the last hours canceled what was to be a face-to-face summit with his Japanese counterpart. At the same time increased cyberattacks are being reported against Taiwan government websites in local media.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 21:55

• Sinema Signs Off On Reconciliation Bill After Dems Agree To Protect Private Equity Billionaires
  Sinema Signs Off On Reconciliation Bill After Dems Agree To Protect Private Equity Billionaires

  Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema – the lone Democrat holdout on the Biden administration’s revamped reconciliation bill – has finally signed off on it, after Democrats agreed to preserve the so-called carried interest loophole that allows investment managers (like her former bosses) to shield the majority of their income from higher taxes.

  

  Last summer Sinema interned a winery owned by the co-founders of one of the biggest private equity firms in the world.

  The tax increases she’s blocking (tightening the carried interest loophole) would directly benefit her private equity friends. https://t.co/yTHQFv9W4p

  — FxMacro (@fxmacro) August 3, 2022

  In fact, Sinema told donors at a Wednesday night fundraiser that it makes ‘no sense’ to squeeze the private-equity industry that will finance various projects for the roughly $1 trillion infrastructure and $280 billion semiconductor bills that were signed into law earlier, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing a lobbyist who attended.

  “We have agreed to remove the carried interest tax provision, protect advanced manufacturing, and boost our clean energy economy in the Senate’s budget reconciliation legislation,” Sinema said in a statement, adding that she would move forward with the legislation following a review by the Senate’s parliamentarian – who will rule on whether elements such as domestic content requirements for cars eligible for EV tax credits, caps on insulin, and other provisions, meet strict budget rules.

  Current mood now that Carried Interest rules ain’t changing: pic.twitter.com/PslqJi1bNP

  — High Yield Harry (@HighyieldHarry) August 5, 2022

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  That said, she promises to someday crack down on the carried interest loophole she so vehemently fought for.

  “Following this effort, I look forward to working with Senator Warner to enact carried interest tax reforms, protecting investments in America’s economy and encouraging continued growth while closing the most egregious loopholes that some abuse to avoid paying taxes,” she said, the Journal reports.

  Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) announced a deal last week to raise $739 billion in new revenue and spend $433 billion on climate, energy and healthcare programs over 10 years, reviving a package they thought was dead. Now, Democrats are trying to keep the bill on its narrow track to passage this month through the 50-50 Senate.

  Ms. Sinema had previously opposed raising taxes on the carried-interest income of private-equity managers, though she also helped craft many other elements of the bill during talks last year. A spokeswoman for Ms. Sinema had previously said the senator was studying the bill. -WSJ

  And while the Biden administration has promised that the “Inflation Protection Act” won’t increase taxes on those making under $400,000, BofA (and many, many others) say fat chance.

  

  The deal with Sinema also includes a new excise tax on stock buybacks that’s expected to raise more than the $14 billion that would have been raised if the carried-interest loophole had been eliminated.

  The deal struck by Sinema, a pivotal Democratic vote in the Senate, would pare back a proposed 15% corporate minimum tax by creating an exemption for depreciation tax deductions. This change was urged by manufacturers.

  The estimated $100 billion revenue hole created by this new exemption would be made up for with a new 1% excise tax on stock buybacks according to people familiar with the talks. 

  The excise tax on companies when they buy back their own stock would raise roughly enough to cover the tax revenue that is forgone by nixing the carried interest provision and narrowing the corporate minimum tax. –Bloomberg

  The deal with Sinema includes a new excise tax on stock buybacks that will bring in more than the $14 billion raised by the carried interest provision, according to a Democrat familiar with the agreement. The deficit reduction figure remains about $300 billion.

  — Burgess Everett (@burgessev) August 5, 2022

  The excise tax on buyback roughly makes up for the exemption on the corporate minimum tax and elimination of the carried interest tax provision.

  — Vincent Lee (@Rover829) August 5, 2022

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  Sinema’s change of heart came after a lengthy discussion with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who along with Sinema had been holding up previous iterations of the Democrats’ massive reconciliation packages.

  Here’s Sen. Manchin talking with Sen. Sinema in the Senate.

  They started talking at 2:58pm. pic.twitter.com/MHBz6ZNmNa

  — Jeremy Art (@cspanJeremy) August 4, 2022

  Below: Sinema’s statement, and one from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

  SCHUMER: “I am pleased to report that we have reached an agreement on the Inflation Reduction Act that I believe will receive the support of the entire Senate Democratic conference.” pic.twitter.com/HoRafLWiPm

  — Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) August 5, 2022

  The parliamentarian’s review has reportedly been underway and could drag into the weekend – after which Democrats will face an amendment process called a vote-a-rama, in which lawmakers can “offer and force votes on as many amendments as they can physically sustain in one sitting,” reads the Journal, which adds that these can last all night.

  And since corporations don’t pay taxes, that excise tax bill will be passed along to consumers in the form of even HIGHER prices.

  Thanks, Democrats. You own this impending disaster. #GoForThrottleUp pic.twitter.com/xYopqVaphl

  — Adam Wolf ★ (@AdamWolfTX) August 5, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 21:54

• Tulsi Gabbard Says Biden Admin "Promoting Child Abuse" By Pushing "Gender-Affirming Care"
  Tulsi Gabbard Says Biden Admin “Promoting Child Abuse” By Pushing “Gender-Affirming Care”

  Authored by Lorenz Duchamps via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic presidential candidate who also served as a Hawaiian congresswoman, criticized the Biden/Harris administration for “promoting child abuse,” accusing the White House of harm by releasing statements that endorse the use of puberty blockers and irreversible surgeries for children.

  

  In a video posted on social media, Gabbard said despite the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) warning that gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonists—also referred to by many as puberty blockers—can cause serious health risks for children, the Biden/Harris administration continues the advocacy of what it describes as “gender-affirming health care,” which gives children easy access to sex change treatments.

  “The FDA made a disturbing, but not at all surprising announcement just a few days ago about children’s health,” Gabbard declared. “Now, if you haven’t heard about it, or if you’ve missed it, it is because the mainstream media and the Biden/Harris administration have been completely silent on it.”

  Gabbard further explained that the FDA’s warning announced that the blockers potentially cause a series of symptoms in children—which include headaches, pressure buildup around the brain, and vision loss.

  “Unfortunately, at almost the exact same time the FDA issued this warning, Biden/Harris administration officials were making public statements actively promoting the use of puberty blockers and irreversible surgeries for kids,” Gabbard said.

  “Now let’s be clear: this administration is dangerously promoting child abuse,” she concluded.

  In early July, the FDA announced that puberty blockers have a risk of pseudotumor cerebri developing in children who take GnRH agonists.

  Pseudotumor cerebri, or idiopathic intracranial hypertension, is when the fluid around the brain and spinal cord builds up in the skull for no obvious reason, causing high pressure that affects the brain and the nerve in the back of the eye, the optic nerve.

  Gabbard’s remark came several weeks after Rachel Levine, the Biden administration’s assistant secretary for health and the first transgender federal official to be confirmed by the Senate, called for laws to “support and empower” youths “to get gender affirmation treatment.”

  

  Levine, who appeared on MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” said transgender youth suffer “significant harassment and bullying” and have “more mental health issues” than regular children, claiming puberty blockers are “life-saving, medically necessary, age-appropriate and a critical tool for health care providers.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 21:40

• Argentina Vows Not To Go Full Weimar, Will Stop Printing Money Amid 60% Inflation
  Argentina Vows Not To Go Full Weimar, Will Stop Printing Money Amid 60% Inflation

  Hours after Argentina’s new Minister of Economy Sergio Massa was sworn into office, he pledged to stop printing money in an attempt to halt a spiraling currency crisis which has seen inflation hit 60% – and has been projected to reach 90% by the end of this year.

  

  According to the Buenos Aires Times, Massa’s economic roadmap also focuses on boosting exports, reducing the country’s fiscal deficit, and refilling the central bank’s severely depleted reserves.

  Protests have erupted across the country over the last several months, as citizens are demanding that their center-left government reinstate various subsidies, and reconsider cutting more – such as the country’s notorious welfare program, which has grown to 22 million Argentinians receiving assistance amid a 43% unemployment rate.

  The country’s deteriorating economic picture has left it cut off from international capital markets as the Fernández administration has relied on printing money to cover its chronic fiscal debt.

  As the Epoch Times noted earlier in the week, the country’s state funded programs extend to nearly every aspect of the economy, from wages to utilities, education, and health care.

  Argentina already spends an estimated 800 million pesos per day—a sum of more than US$6 million—on state benefit programs.

  Concurrently, inflation in the South American nation hit 58 percent in May and soared above 60 percent in July. By comparison, national inflation was just over 14 percent in 2015.

  Harry Lorenzo, chief finance officer of Income Based Research, told The Epoch Times the spending habits of Argentina’s government are at the root of the escalating problem.

  “The Argentine government has been grappling with a collapsing economy for some time now. The main reason for this is the government’s unsustainable spending, which has been funded in part by generous welfare programs,” Lorenzo explained.

  While the Peso’s official spot price has weakened to over 130/USD…

  

  The grey market ‘blue dollar’ for US dollars is trading dramatically weaker at around 300/USD…

  

  “Magic doesn’t exist,” Massa exclaimed to reporters in Buenos Aires. “We have to confront inflation with determination.”

  The government will finance its budget by reducing its deficit or via private lending. The country is considering four loan offers by three international banks and a sovereign wealth fund, he said, without providing a figure of the potential deal.

  Although light on specifics, Massa committed to meeting the government’s primary deficit target this year, a key pillar of its US$44 billion program with the International Monetary Fund. Massa said he spoke to IMF staff Wednesday to discuss the program’s future. An IMF spokesperson said in a statement that its staff spoke to Massa about implementing the program. -Buenos Aires Times

  Meanwhile, and perhaps related to Massa’s swearing-in, crypto exchange Binance has partnered with Mastercard to launch a ‘cryptocurrency power card’ for customers in Argentina. It will be used to spend digital currency on everyday items, according to a press release.

  The Latin American country will be the first to see this product available on its territory. At the time of writing, Binance claims the product is currently in beta; it will become “widely available” for all users in Argentina over the coming weeks.

  The Binance Card is issued by Credencial Payment, the press release revealed. Every user in the country will be available for the product as long as they have completed the exchange Know Your Customer (KYC) process and presented a valid national ID. –Bitcoinist

  According to Mastercard Latin America EVP Walter Pimenta, “Our work with digital currencies builds on our strong foundation to enable choice and peace of mind when people shop and pay. Together with our partners, Mastercard has been leading the payments industry in enabling entry to this exciting new world, helping bring millions of additional users into crypto and other digital assets in a safe and trusted manner.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 21:20

• DOJ Sues Ex-Trump Adviser Peter Navarro Over White House Emails
  DOJ Sues Ex-Trump Adviser Peter Navarro Over White House Emails

  Authored by Rita Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The Justice Department has sued former White House trade adviser Peter Navarro for allegedly violating a record-keeping law, asking the latter to turn over private emails for while he was working for former President Donald Trump.

  

  “Mr. Navarro has refused to return any Presidential records that he retained absent a grant of immunity for the act of returning such documents,” the lawsuit (pdf) says, adding that the ex-Trump aide “is wrongfully retaining Presidential records that are the property of the United States, and which constitute part of the permanent historical record of the prior administration.”

  Filed on Aug. 3 in a federal court in Washington, the document alleged that Navarro used “at least one non-official email account” while working in the White House but failed to copy those emails or messages constituting Presidential records to his government email account within 20 days as required by the Presidential Records Act.

  The National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) was also supposed to receive them before or shortly after Trump left office but is yet to, according to prosecutors, who said between 200 and 250 of the emails on Navarro’s private account should have been collected.

  The department further accused Navarro of declining to turn in the retained records without a grant of immunity. Navarro’s lawyers refuted such claims, arguing that their client “has never refused to provide records to the government.”

  “As detailed in our recent letter to the Archives, Mr. Navarro instructed his lawyers to preserve all such records, and he expects the government to follow standard processes in good faith to allow him to produce records. Instead, the government chose to file its lawsuit today,” his attorneys told The Hill in a statement.

  Reaching for Trump

  The latest case comes two months after a grand jury indicted Navarro on June 3 for refusing to give documents and testimony early this year to the House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol breach in 2021.

  The former White House trade adviser had pleaded not guilty on June 17 to two misdemeanor counts of contempt of Congress, citing executive privilege due to his former position at the White House under the Trump administration, before rejecting a plea offer to a single count in July.

  Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), chairman of the Jan. 6 committee, rejected Navarro’s claims, claiming that privilege belongs to the president but not a White House official, despite the emails involving the former president.

  Navarro’s trial is set for Nov. 17.

  Trump’s attorneys have previously argued that former White House officials shouldn’t comply with congressional subpoenas because the requested information is protected by Trump’s executive privilege.

  However since January, NARA has handed documents and records from the Trump administration’s time in office to the Jan. 6 House Committee, despite Trump’s attempts to ask the Supreme Court to block the release.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 21:00

• "Friendshoring" Trend Sees Companies Moving Ops To Dodge Tensions And Trade Wars
  “Friendshoring” Trend Sees Companies Moving Ops To Dodge Tensions And Trade Wars

  Wary of mounting tensions surrounding out-of-favor countries like China and Russia, multinational corporations are shifting operations to places that present less geopolitical risk.  

  The trend has been labelled “friendshoring.” While that’s a play on “offshoring,” this isn’t about companies moving operations back to the United States or Europe, but rather seeking foreign alternatives that retain the benefit of low labor costs but with less international controversy.  

  For now, the conversation is principally about China. “Every company that I speak to at the moment is engaged in rethinking their [China-focused] supply chains,” Tony Danker, head of the Confederation of British Industry, told the Financial Times, “because they anticipate that our politicians will inevitably accelerate towards a decoupled world from China.”

  

  Congress is actively working to accelerate the friendshoring trend: The $433 billion climate and tax bill that’s grinding toward Senate approval includes a tax credit for electric vehicles assembled in North America — not just the United States. That’s sparked some grumbling from the omitted EU.

  China and the United States already had an increasingly adversarial relationship before this week’s saber-rattling over House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. A long-simmering trade war heated up on on June 21, when the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) started imposing a guilty-til-proven-innocent regime that bars all imports from China’s Xinjiang province unless businesses prove their products are not made with forced labor.

  Geopolitical and trade-war tensions aren’t the only factor pushing multinationals away from China. The country’s over-the-top zero-Covid policies have disrupted supply chains, and China has been known to target foreign companies in a variety of ways, to include encouraging Chinese consumer boycotts of businesses that have somehow managed to earn the Chinese government’s ire. 

  Demographics are a factor too. The youngest generation is the country’s most-educated ever, and there’s a growing stigma attached to vocational schooling and factory work — a dynamic that puts upward pressure on labor costs. Gen Z Chinese are also increasingly gravitating toward working for the government or state-run companies.  

  None of this is to suggest multinationals will abandon China altogether. For many, this is an exercise in diversifying risks. Those calculations are made more difficult by uncertainty over who may fall out of favor with reckless, sanction-happy Western governments in the future. 

  There could be a downside for consumers: To the extent friendshoring moves some operations to places more expensive than China, the trend could nudge prices higher.   

  A Rabobank analysis of friendsharing projects that chief beneficiaries will include countries like Vietnam, India, Brazil, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Egypt and South Africa. However, expect both Eastern and Western European countries will be in on the action too — with the latter most likely to see new high-tech presences.

  Foreign Policy provides examples of some recent corporate moves:  

  Apple has begun moving manufacturing from China to Vietnam, where its AirPods Pro 2 are now likely to be produced. Two years ago, Samsung moved its Chinese manufacturing to Vietnam. Hasbro has moved its Chinese production to India and Vietnam. In July, Volvo announced that it would open its first European factory in 60 years, in Slovakia. (The Swedish carmaker is owned by Geely of China.) Apparel and footwear companies such as Adidas, meanwhile, have shifted production to Vietnam, though this was primarily motivated by cost.

  Friendshoring beneficiaries have to perform their own careful calculations. As Alan Beattie notes at the Financial Times, “Few countries will want to be an immutable part of a U.S. friendshoring gang if it opens them up to strategic and commercial retribution from Beijing.” 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 20:40

• California Announces Fifth Case Of Pediatric Monkeypox In US
  California Announces Fifth Case Of Pediatric Monkeypox In US

  Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A fifth child is presumed to have monkeypox in the United States since the country’s first two pediatric cases were reported in July.

  

  California health officials announced the latest presumptive pediatric monkeypox case in a Long Beach child on Tuesday, four days after Indiana health officials confirmed that two children in that state also tested positive.

  Last month, another California toddler tested positive for monkeypox as well as an infant resident of a foreign country who was passing through Washington D.C., bringing the total U.S. pediatric cases to five.

  The Long Beach Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) is carrying out a contact tracing investigation and told The Epoch Times it had no further information about those efforts since Tuesday.

  “Preliminary test results indicate that the child has tested positive for orthopoxvirus,” the Long Beach DHHS said in a statement. “Additional testing will be performed at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) to confirm monkeypox.”

  The child was symptomatic and is now recovered, according to the Californian department, which said, in light of the pediatric diagnosis, that monkeypox can also be spread by “holding and feeding.”

  “This is a reminder that everyone, regardless of age or sexual orientation, can get monkeypox if they come into contact with the virus,” Long Beach DHHS said.

  [ZH: CDC Director Rochelle Walensky was a little more specific last week – the children were reportedly “gay community adjacent.”]:

  CDC Director Rochelle Walensky: GAY Homosexuals gave Children Monkeypox pic.twitter.com/4dwdNqzthc

  — catranchdream🇨🇦🩸😤 (@catranchdream) July 25, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Pediatric Cases in Indiana

  The new pediatric case in California comes days after the Indiana Department of Health (IDOH) reported two pediatric cases among its total of 45 new cases confirmed between June 18 and July 28.

  IDOH said it won’t release additional information about the cases due to patient privacy.

  “Like many other states, Indiana has seen an increase in monkeypox cases over the past month,” State Health Commissioner Dr. Kris Box said in a statement.

  “Monkeypox does not easily spread through brief casual contact, but it’s important to remember that anyone can be affected if they are a close contact of a positive case.”

  She encouraged residents who think they’ve been exposed or who develop symptoms to contact a healthcare provider.

  

  In guidance, the CDC has said that children with exposure to people with monkeypox may be eligible for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) with vaccination, immune globulin, or antiviral medication.

  PEP is commonly known for its use as an emergency antiviral medication to prevent HIV infection and is taken largely by gay and bisexual men. However, the first-line treatment for children is the antiviral Tecovirimat, commonly used for smallpox.

  Household Spread

  In the 2022 outbreak, monkeypox has primarily been spreading through the sexual activity of gay and bisexual men but it is not typically considered by health officials to be a sexually transmitted disease.

  The CDC and World Health Organization (WHO) have said the virus can also spread through contaminated bedding and clothing.

  With the fifth child now contracting monkeypox, presumably within a household, Long Beach DHHS has named other household items that could spread the virus, such as cups, towels, and utensils.

  For this reason, the department has said that people with monkeypox should avoid contact with household members and follow the CDC’s guidance for limiting transmission in the home.

  “With children, people are advised to minimize the number of caregivers and limit interaction between siblings, including sharing toys, clothing, linens and bedding. It is also important for the infected person to limit interactions with pets in the home,” Long Beach DHHS said.

  The CDC has provided extensive guidance on household infection control to inform people with monkeypox around how to isolate, including not engaging in “sexual activity that involves direct physical contact.”

  Much like with COVID-19, people with monkeypox should isolate away from other household members, and clean shared spaces appropriately until such as time when any “rash has fully resolved, the scabs have fallen off, and a fresh layer of intact skin has formed.”

  Spread Beyond LGBT Community

  The rise to five pediatric cases comes after a senior WHO official warned that monkeypox would likely spread beyond the LGBT population.

  Dr. Catherine Smallwood, a senior emergency officer at the WHO, told CNBC in July that “we should not expect” monkeypox to remain only within the demographic of “men who have sex with men.”

  Experts and health officials are still coming to grips with monkeypox’s evolution from an endemic disease limited mostly to Africa, where it is spread by animals, to the current vector of the 2022 outbreak, which is spread primarily via the sexual activity of gay and bisexual men, according to a major peer-reviewed study.

  Dr. Anthony Fauci, the White House’s medical adviser and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said health officials needed to come to a better scientific understanding of the current monkeypox outbreak.

  He also said swift interventions and outreach to the LGBT community, which is most at risk from the virus, was “absolutely” needed to combat the virus.

  Monkeypox case numbers in the United States are currently over 5,800 since the first case emerged in May. Last month, the WHO declared the monkeypox outbreak a public health “emergency.”

  DeSantis Criticizes ‘Emergency’ Declarations

  California, Illinois, and New York have declared states of emergency in response to the outbreak.

  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose state has the fifth highest number of monkeypox cases as of Aug. 4, has said he will not follow suit.

  The Republican governor accused other elected officials of driving a scare campaign.

  “Do not listen to their nonsense … I’m so sick of politicians, and we saw this with COVID, trying to sew fear into the population,” he told reporters on Wednesday.

  Florida will not be dictating our health policies out of fear – we are focused on the facts. pic.twitter.com/GATB0Op3Y5

  — Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) August 3, 2022

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  He added: “We’re not going to go back to like Fauci in the 80s where he was trying to tell families they were all going to catch AIDs watching TV together.”

  DeSantis said that Florida’s response to monkeypox won’t include a “fear” campaign to “rile people up and try to act like people can’t live their lives as they’ve been normally doing.”

  “You see some of these states declaring states of emergency. They’re gong to abuse those emergency powers to try to restrict your freedom. I guarantee you that’s what will happen. We saw it with COVID,” he added.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 20:20

• US NatGas Rebounds As Major Texas LNG Terminal Set For Fast Reopening
  US NatGas Rebounds As Major Texas LNG Terminal Set For Fast Reopening

  US natural gas prices surged Wednesday and continued increasing Thursday morning after the Freeport LNG Terminal in Quintana, Texas, received regulatory approval to reopen in October.

  The Freeport plant, which closed in June due to an explosion, received regulatory approval from the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration to ensure the plant can “safely and confidently” resume operations of its liquefaction plant, reported Bloomberg. 

  “Those initial operations are expected to consist of three liquefaction trains, two LNG storage tanks and one LNG loading dock, which the company believes will enable delivery of approximately 2 BCF per day of LNG, enough to support its existing long-term customer agreements,” the company said.

  The shuttering of the facility in late June reduced total liquefied natural gas export capacity by 2B cf/day, or 17% of total US LNG capacity, much of which was sent to Europe. 

  “Freeport LNG is one of seven LNG export facilities operating in the United States,” the EIA said.

  “The facility shipped its first LNG cargo in September 2019, and it was the fifth US LNG export terminal to come online in the Lower 48 states.”

  The news surprised traders as the front-month NatGas contract for September delivery has risen nearly 11% to $8.37/mmBtu since 1100 ET Wednesday (but wqas dragged a little lower today as recession fears appeared to drag down the entire energy complex)…

  

  “This is likely a little faster, and a little stronger [in terms of exports] than the natural-gas markets were expecting,” NatGasWeather wrote in a note to clients. 

  Brayton Tom, a senior risk manager for energy at StoneX Group, said the “partial restart is bigger than previously expected.”  

  The prospects of reopening the terminal should keep a bid underneath NatGas prices as LNG shipments to Europe will restart in the next few months. This will pressure US inventories and generate concerns about tight domestic supplies ahead of winter. 

  Inversely, EU NatGas should move lower, though that doesn’t appear to be the case, probably because the Russians slashed Nord Stream 1 pipeline capacity to 20%. 

   

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 20:00

• Inversion, Inventory, & Incongruity
  Inversion, Inventory, & Incongruity

  Authored by Peter Tchir via AcademySecurities.com,

  Today we will focus on yield curve “inversion” (which doesn’t seem to be getting that much attention), “inventories” (which I think pose a threat to any ongoing growth for the economy), and finally we explore that it might be “incongruous” to wish for lower oil prices in the near-term. Incongruous might not be the right word, but it was difficult coming up with three “I” words.

  Inversion

  Curves have been flattening/inverting to levels (that are historically important) with less fanfare than I would have expected. Sure, the doomers have latched on to it, but it doesn’t seem to be at the forefront of conversations and has garnered minimal media attention relative to where we are.

  

  The 2-year versus 10-year spread is inverted and while the 3-month versus 10-year spread isn’t inverted, it has moved dramatically in the past few weeks and has the potential to get there.

  The inversion in early 2000 coincided with the bursting of the internet “bubble”. There was a prolonged decline in markets, which to be honest, were also hurt by the attacks on 9/11 and frauds at Enron and WorldCom.

  Curves were inverted ahead of the peak in financial markets, but that peak occurred right as some large institutions had to cut dividends and guidance due to their mortgage portfolios. Lots of other factors contributed to the GFC and it didn’t really play out for almost another year (stocks rallied back into the fall, then again when Bear Stearns was “saved” in early 2008, only to finally succumb later that year and in the first part of 2009).

  The 2019 to 2020 period is tricky. The inversion in the summer of 2019 did precede a sell-off, but there is no way the market was anticipating a COVID shutdown. April 2020 saw inversion, but I think the Fed, the Treasury, and even D.C. realized that they had to act quickly and aggressively. We saw strong initial “emergency” measures followed up by more and more stimulus. Maybe the fact that we avoided prolonged equity market issues in 2020 is why this recent inversion isn’t getting much attention (the boy who cried wolf, etc.), but I am not sure that D.C. is prepared to act like they did during COVID or that the Fed can be as accommodative (as they are dealing with inflation, at least some of which can be tied to the aggressive responses to the threat of COVID).

  I’m not alarmed, but it seems strange that equities have been able to ignore the recent inversion and a 20 bps rise in 10-year yields in less than 48 hours (albeit the 30-year “only” moved 11 bps in that time).

  Certainly, inversion occurred before problems really hit markets back in the early 2000’s/pre-GFC and 2020 amounted to a great buying opportunity, but things don’t “feel” quite right to me here.

  Inventories

  I continue to fixate on inventories.

  

  Inventories, in an ideal world, follow a nice pattern. Companies see demand, they build/acquire products, and they then sell those products. Since last summer, inventories have been building month after month. Some of that inventory build can be attributed to getting ahead of supply chain issues (including Just in Case inventories from Just in Time inventories), but some certainly can be blamed on less consumption.

  

  Even with companies wanting more robust inventories, we seem to have moved to a very high cushion.

  

  On the ISM side of things, we’ve had inventory builds contribute to the data for extended periods in the past (like 2018 until early 2019). The peak then was 55 (as opposed to 57.3 recently) and many months were barely above 50 (as opposed to a recent low of almost 52).

  Additional concerns about inventory:

  • Are we done with back orders getting filled? Or, will we see inventories continue to build as orders that were made when lack of inventory due to supply chains seemed like a bigger risk than consumer demand slowing?

  • How many products are “99%” completed, just waiting for a missing component? That missing piece could be a ball bearing, or a semiconductor, or some piece of customized plastic, it doesn’t really matter. What matters is if there are a lot of “almost finished” goods that will get converted into finished goods as those missing components arrive, will we have another surge in inventories? Or has that already happened?

  I am not only concerned about current levels of inventories, but that we are still on a path (due to prior orders and missing components) that will increase inventories further before they can correct.

  The Incongruity of Wishing for Low Oil Prices

  For the past few months markets, politicians, and the media have been desperate for lower oil prices. All that I can think is, be careful what you wish for.

  

  I use the 6-month forward WTI contract to smooth things out, but typically, as oil goes up, stocks do well (and vice versa). That was the case from 2016 until just recently.

  

  The same pattern holds true for the 2003 to 2011 period, with a couple of short exceptions.

  

  Even from 1999 until 2002 the pattern held up pretty well. This period included 9/11, which many of us lived through and lost friends, and when the U.S. military conducted operations across the globe. Many of my teammates at Academy served in those conflicts and embracing post 9/11 veterans is a huge part of Academy’s Mission (as we pass 100 employees in total, ~49% of them are veterans, many of whom have been wounded in service). In any case, I’m not sure we should cheer low oil prices.

  Bottom Line

  As discussed in this weekend’s I Don’t Care, I Love It! T-report, there is a bull case out there. It is also difficult to fight TINA and FOMO in an illiquid and volatile market, but as Fed speaker after Fed speaker seems intent on hammering home the inflation fight, there is increasingly more to worry about.

  Jobs are also a concern, but we will know more after Friday’s NFP.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 19:40

• Riot Blockchain Made $9.5 Million In Credits By Shutting Down Bitcoin Mining Amidst Texas Heat Wave
  Riot Blockchain Made $9.5 Million In Credits By Shutting Down Bitcoin Mining Amidst Texas Heat Wave

  Riot Blockchain earned a stunning $9.5 million in credits in the month of July – all for just shutting down its mining rigs at its Texas facility while the region faced a historic heat wave and energy was at a premium.

  The value of the credit they are going to receive is about that of 439 bitcoin, Bloomberg reported this week. Riot also mined 318 coins during the month, the report says. The credits can be used against the company’s power usage in the future.

  Riot sports a 750 megawatt facility in Texas and is currently in the midst of building another 1 gigawatt site in the same state. In Texas, almost all bitcoin miners were forced to shut down their rigs as crushing heat hit the state in early July. 

  The heat wave caused electricity prices to spike and made most bitcoin mining operations unprofitable. 

  

  Recall, we wrote in early summer about how some public oil companies were joining forces with bitcoin miners to help re-shape the industry. 

  One of the world’s largest industries – oil and gas – is converging with magic internet money infrastructure, we noted – but bitcoin’s prolonged market selloff has taken some of the shine off of these monumental partnerships. Some cryptocurrency traders are even facetiously asking if energy will be a new bullish narrative for Bitcoin, bringing wind to fill its metaphorical sails as the leading cryptocurrency sits over 50% below its record price highs from late 2021.

  Jokes aside, the “energy narrative” for bitcoin mining is real and gaining momentum as a growing list of mining companies and energy producers join forces. Assessing the short-term price implications of these partnerships are well outside the scope of this article, but the long-term benefits for bitcoin mining as an industry and the broader bitcoin economy are enormous.

  Our article from May overviews the partnerships that are leading the merge between bitcoin mining and oil companies, and it offers some summary analysis into the specifics of why these corporate unions matter.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 19:20

• Facebook To Shut Down Live Shopping Feature For Retailers
  Facebook To Shut Down Live Shopping Feature For Retailers

  By ChainStoreAge

  Live shopping events on Facebook are going to do a disappearing act.

  

  The social media network said it is shutting down its live shopping feature and shifting its focus to Reels. The company announced the news in a blog post in which it said that, starting on October 1, “you will no longer be able to host any new or scheduled Live Shopping events on Facebook.” 

  The company noted that Facebook Live will still be available to broadcast live events, but “you won’t be able to create product playlists or tag products in your Facebook Live videos.”

  Facebook launched livestream video shopping some two years ago. The feature was designed to give creators and brands an interactive way to sell items, connect with viewers and reach new customers.

  The company has since expanded the feature with new options. Last summer, for example, it launched a new promotion called Live Shopping Fridays,” which featured beauty and fashion brands such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Clinique and Sephora.

  In announcing its decision to scale back live shopping, Facebook cited consumers changing habits.

  “As consumers’ viewing behaviors are shifting to short-form video, we are shifting our focus to Reels on Facebook and Instagram, Meta’s short-form video product,” the company stated.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 19:00

• Watch: Radical Shia Group Storms, Briefly Takes Over, Azerbaijan Embassy In London
  Watch: Radical Shia Group Storms, Briefly Takes Over, Azerbaijan Embassy In London

  A London-based Shia Muslim organization has stormed and briefly taken over the embassy of Azerbaijan in the UK capital, the government of Azerbaijan has confirmed, with local police announcing that eight men have been arrested. 

  The group, called the Mahdi Servants Union, was seen on the embassy balcony waiving their distinctive flag at the embassy located in Kensington neighborhood. The men have reportedly been charged with trespassing and “criminal damage”. Social media videos showed the group scrawling protest messages written in Arabic on the external embassy walls in the rare incident, with a crowd of onlookers beholding the mayhem from the street…

  Religious radicals seize #Azerbaijan Embassy in London. Muslim Azerbaijan’s staunch secularism is a thorn in the eye of Islamist radicals. pic.twitter.com/LXwXOg7WpG

  — Raoul Lowery Contreras (@sdrlc) August 4, 2022

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  The Daily Mail describes of the scene, “Some were using head dresses, or a keffiyeh, to cover their faces as they chanted messages to the crowds who had gathered below, before replacing the Azerbaijani flag with their own.”

  Apparently the standoff and brief embassy siege ended when UK police stormed the compound. “One video showed the building on Kensington Court cordoned off as several police officers with helmets and shields prepared to storm inside,” the report continues. A Met Police statement said:

  “Police were called at approximately 16:30hrs on Thursday, 4 August to the Azerbaijan Embassy in Kensington to reports of protestors who had entered the premises.”

  “Officers attended and engaged with those present. Eight men were arrested on suspicion of trespass and criminal damage.”

  There appeared to be clashes with police before the embassy was taken back, and the official Azerbaijan flag subsequently raised…

  Shocking behaviour by a group of protesters at 🇦🇿 #Azerbaijan ‘s London embassy. Violent and criminal actions against diplomatic missions anywhere must be condemned. Hope those working inside were safe. pic.twitter.com/s7ESnToclj

  — Ed Crymble (@crymble_ed) August 4, 2022

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  The Mahdi Servants Union as a hardline religious group focused on Shia affairs has long condemned Azerbaijan government authorities for “oppression” against Muslims. Though the country remains majority Shia, it is largely secular in its polices and orientation when compared to places like Iran or Saudi Arabia. The group is led by Shia cleric Yasser Al Habib.

  Some commentators have dubbed the group a “cult” and say that they don’t have Iranian backing:

  FAKE NEWS ALERT: The group of radicals who attacked Azerbaijan’s London Embassy are NOT “Iran backed”.

  They are a UK-based cult group who hate I.R. Iran. Tehran in return has accused them of being MI6-backed. #London #Azerbaijan #Embassy https://t.co/s3t4032YNx

  — Robert Carter (@Bob_cart124) August 4, 2022

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  While it’s unclear whether the protest and embassy takeover was connected to broader geopolitical events, there’s been longtime border tensions and military build-up between Iran and Azerbaijan along their shared border.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 18:40

• Suicide Rates Among US Army Soldiers Highest In More Than 80 Years
  Suicide Rates Among US Army Soldiers Highest In More Than 80 Years

  Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The U.S. Army lost 176 active duty soldiers to suicide in 2021, figures show.

  

  According to combined data from the Defense Suicide Prevention Office and a study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, that’s the highest number of active duty Army member suicides on record since 1938.

  Suicide rates within all military branches have continued to rise since 2015.

  Compounding this trend is the number of U.S. soldiers and veterans who have taken their own life in post-9/11 wars.

  

  Brown University published a study indicating that 30,177 active duty members and veterans have committed suicide. By comparison, the number of soldiers actually killed in post-9/11 war operations is 7,052.

  Some experts say physically and mentally demanding industries like the military put people at an elevated risk for developing Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). It’s one of the few mental health disorders that can be linked to a specific event.

  “PTSD can also occur when you experience constant high-stress situations,” Dr Danielle McGraw told The Epoch Times.

  McGraw is a licensed clinical psychologist and the owner of Flourish Mental Wellness in Scottsdale, Arizona. She has also worked with both active and veteran military members struggling with PTSD.

  She says when people are feeling stressed, it can lead to feelings of hopelessness about their situation, which can spiral into thoughts of self-harm.

  Another contributing factor is feelings of shame, which often factor into someone’s decision to take their own life.

  Feeling Like A Pawn

  U.S. Army veteran Jonah Nelson told The Epoch Times that discussion of military suicides is often a shunned topic.

  A former Army engineer, Nelson was deployed to Iraq and Saudi Arabia during the U.S. Gulf War operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm in the early 1990s.

  He wasn’t surprised to learn that his service branch’s active duty member suicide rates are at a historic high.

  “As of now, they don’t have any reliable method of fixing us,” he said.

  Further, Nelson noted that soldiers are often put in situations that can take a harsh toll on mental health.

  He remembers how members of his platoon had to extract human remains from bombed-out vehicles. Nelson says the soldiers involved returned to the base at the end of the day looking “different.”

  “I guess you just don’t talk about that kind of stuff,” he said.

  Mental health experts have heard concerning commentary from other military veterans in recent years.

  Dr Tracy Latz is an integrative psychiatrist and author with 35 years of experience dealing with suicide risk and PTSD suffering patients. She told The Epoch Times feelings of a lack of purpose also contribute to the problem.

  “Veterans I have seen over the past few years report feeling like they and their comrades were used primarily as pawns for governmental political power rather than feeling [a] sense of real purpose in their duties.”

  Red Flags

  Compounding this, service members’ isolation and loneliness while stationed overseas or deployed to combat zones can be crushing.

  A Blue Star Families Military Lifestyles survey from 2021 shows eight out of 10 active duty respondents have been separated from their families in the past 18 months. Moreover, 31 percent have been away for six months or longer.

  The Department of Defence (DOD) began releasing an Annual Suicide Report in January 2019 as a means to track the escalating problem.

  “The department is fully committed to preventing suicides in our military community. Every death by suicide is a tragedy,” the DOD posted on its website for the office of suicide prevention.

  Combined with the United States Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and United Service Organizations (USO), free tools like crisis hotlines for military members struggling with mental health are available 24 hours a day.

  The USO also offers services to deployed military members like Super Bowl parties, shared meals, and movie nights to help increase social connectivity and reduce feelings of isolation while overseas.

  Latz noted that people suffering from PTSD could be dealing with an array of symptoms like poor sleep, flashbacks, and intrusive memories of the trauma they experienced.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 18:20

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• France To "Reduce Or Halt Nuclear Output" As Heatwave Restricts Ability To Cool Plants
  France To “Reduce Or Halt Nuclear Output” As Heatwave Restricts Ability To Cool Plants

  Forecast models indicate that high temperatures will persist across France in early August. Europe’s second-largest economy has endured record-breaking heat this summer that has curbed nuclear power production. We detailed last month, “France Cuts Nuclear Power Generation Amid Record-Breaking Heatwave,” and now, more reductions are planned amid an energy crisis. 

  Bloomberg reported French utility Electricite de France SA (EDF) said nuclear power stations on the Rhone and Garonne rivers will reduce power generation because a persistent heatwave is increasing water temperatures too hot to circulate through condensers and discharge back into waterways. 

  Under French rules, EDF must reduce or halt nuclear output when river temperatures reach certain thresholds to ensure the water used to cool the plants won’t harm the environment when put back into waterways.

  Restrictions have been in place at various times during the summer already. The latest warnings include curbs at the St. Alban plant from Saturday, according to a filing. The facility will operate at a minimum of 700 megawatts, compared with a total capacity of about 2,600 megawatts. Reductions are also likely at the Tricastin plant, where two units will maintain at least 400 megawatts. -Bloomberg

  France is the continent’s largest producer of atomic energy, usually a net exporter of power across EU member states but is now importing electricity since the output this summer will be the lowest in more than three decades. The cause of declining nuclear power output is plants shut for maintenance and or inspection checks. 

  

  France’s nuclear reactor capacity was around 44% on Monday. Bloomberg data showed that two reactors restarted earlier this week, which boosted nuclear capacity to 49% on Wednesday. 

  The reductions in nuclear power output have helped push power prices to near record levels in France and neighboring countries, such as the UK and Germany. France’s power generation problem comes as Europe faces the worst energy supply crunch in decades. Russia reduced natural gas flows via Nord Stream 1 pipeline to just 20% capacity the other week, causing fear of a prolonged energy crisis through 2023. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 02:45

• Russia Has Exported $1 Billion In Fossil Fuels Per Day Since The Ukraine War Despite Sanctions And Boycotts
  Russia Has Exported $1 Billion In Fossil Fuels Per Day Since The Ukraine War Despite Sanctions And Boycotts

  By Alex Kimani of OilPrice.com

  Despite wide-ranging sanctions and import bans, Russia’s vast energy sector continues to thrive, with the country managing to export nearly a billion dollars worth of fossil fuels per day in the first 100 days since its invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, higher crude oil and fuel prices have allowed Russian oil and gas revenues to climb even after the sanctions forced export volumes to dip.

  

  Ultimately, there is no shortage of willing buyers lining up for cheap Russian Urals, nor is there a dearth of middlemen connecting them with Russian energy companies.

  Lurking behind the scenes are Switzerland’s giant trading houses Vitol, Glencore, and Gunvor as well as Singapore’s Trafigura, all of which have continued lifting large volumes of Russian crude and products, including diesel, amid wide-ranging Western Sanctions on Russia.

  Vitol has pledged to stop buying Russian crude by the end of this year, but that’s still a long way from today. Trafigura promised it would stop buying crude from Russia’s state-run Rosneft by May 15th but is free to buy cargoes of Russian crude from other suppliers. Glencore has promised it wouldn’t enter any “new” trading business with Russia, but appears willing to maintain previous deals.

  Meanwhile, India and China have been making up for much of the lost markets for Russian fuels.

  

  Surging Imports From Russia

  India has never been a big buyer of Russian crude despite having to import 80% of its needs. In a typical year, India imports just 2-5% of its crude from Russia, roughly the same proportion as the United States did before it announced a 100% ban on Russian energy commodities.  Indeed, India imported only 12 million barrels of Russian crude in 2021, with the majority of its oil sourced from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Nigeria.

  But back in May, reports emerged of a “significant uptick” in Russian oil deliveries bound for India.

  According to a Bloomberg report, India spent a good $5.1 billion on Russian oil, gas, and coal in the first three months after the invasion, more than five times the value of a year ago. However, China remains the biggest buyer of Russian energy commodities, spending $18.9 billion in the three months to the end of May, almost double the amount a year earlier.

  And, it’s all about the money.

  According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Urals crude from Russia has been offered at record discounts. Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, has told CNBC that a couple of commodity trading firms–such as Glencore and Vitol–were offering discounts of $30 and $25 per barrel, respectively, for the Urals blend. Urals is the main blend exported by Russia.

  The experts say simple economics is the biggest reason why White House pressure to curb purchases of crude oil from Russia have fallen on deaf ears in Delhi.

  “Today, the Government of India’s motivations are economic, not political. India will always look for a deal in their oil import strategy. It’s hard not to take a 20% discount on crude when you import 80-85% of your oil, particularly on the heels of the pandemic and global growth slowdown,” Samir N. Kapadia, head of trade at government relations consulting firm Vogel Group, has told CNBC via email.

  Still, it will not be lost on many readers that India has maintained a cozy relationship with Russia over the years, with Russia supplying the Asian nation with as much as 60% of its military and defense-related equipment. Russia has also been a key ally on crucial issues such as India’s dispute with China and Pakistan surrounding the territory of Kashmir.

  

  Source: Bloomberg

  Smaller trading firms

  India’s energy business with Russia has been booming, so much so that dozens of middlemen are muscling in, hoping to profit from the rapidly growing sector.

  However, it’s not the Trafiguras, Glencores, and Gunvors of this world doing the work; this time around, it’s smaller, less well-known trading houses cutting supply deals with Indian refineries.

  Bloomberg has reported that numerous mid-level commodity trading and energy firms, including Dubai’s Wellbred and Coral Energy, as well as Singapore’s Montfort and U.S.’ Everest Energy, have entered the race to market Russian oil to Indian buyers.

  And Indian oil buyers are loving it.

  Bloomberg says that state-run refiners such as Indian Oil Corp. are warming to the idea of buying from lesser-known traders, while refinery officials say they are easier to work with due to less bureaucracy that slows negotiations with energy firms such as Rosneft PJSC. Trading houses usually serve the function of middlemen by bridging differences between sellers and buyers, and even offer different payment terms to assist in the movement of funds.

  Switzerland’s Golden Calf

  That said, a lot of the companies helping finance Putin’s war are based in Switzerland, with the lion’s share of Russian raw materials traded via Switzerland and its nearly 1,000 commodity firms.

  Switzerland is an important global financial hub with a thriving commodities sector, despite the fact that it is far from all the global trade routes and has no access to the sea, no former colonial territories, and no significant raw materials of its own. 

  Oliver Classen, media officer at the Swiss NGO Public Eye, says that “this sector accounts for a much larger part of the GDP in Switzerland than tourism or the machinery industry”. According to a 2018 Swiss government report, commodity trading volume reaches almost $1 trillion ($903.8 billion). 

  Deutsche Welle has reported that 80% of Russian raw materials are traded via Switzerland, according to a report by the Swiss embassy in Moscow. About a third of those materials are oil and gas, while two-thirds are base metals such as zinc, copper, and aluminum. In other words, deals signed on Swiss desks are directly facilitating Russian oil and gas to continue flowing freely.

  With gas and oil exports coming in as the main source of income for Russia, accounting for 30 to 40% of the Russian budget, Switzerland’s role cannot be overlooked in this war-time equation.  In 2021, Russian state corporations earned around $180 billion (€163 billion) from oil exports alone.

  Again, unfortunately, Switzerland has been handling its commodities trade with kid gloves.

  According to DW, raw materials are often traded directly between governments and via commodities exchanges. However, they can also be traded freely, and Swiss companies have specialized in direct sales thanks to an abundance of capital.

  In raw materials transactions, Swiss commodity traders have adopted letters of credits or L/Cs as their preferred instruments. A bank will give a loan to a trader and as collateral, receive a document making it the owner of the commodity. As soon as the buyer pays the bank, the document (and ownership of the commodity) is transferred to the trader. The system gives traders more credit lines without their creditworthiness having to be checked, and the bank has the value of the commodity as security.

  This is a prime example of transit trade, where only the money flows through Switzerland, but actual raw materials usually do not touch Swiss soil. Thus, no details about the magnitude of the transaction land on the desk of the Swiss customs authorities leading to highly imprecise information about the flow volumes of raw materials. 

  “The whole commodities trade is under-recorded and underregulated. You have to dig around to collect data and not all information is available,” Elisabeth Bürgi Bonanomi, a senior lecturer in law and sustainability at Bern University, has told DW.

  Obviously, the lack of regulation is very appealing to commodity traders – especially those that deal with raw materials mined in non-democratic countries such as the DRC.

   “Unlike the financial market, where there are rules for tackling money laundering and illegal or illegitimate financial flows, and a financial market supervisory authority, there is currently no such thing for commodity trading,” financial and legal expert at Public Eye David Mühlemann told the German broadcaster ARD.

  But don’t expect things to change any time soon.

  Calls for a supervisory body for the commodities sector based on the model of the one for the financial market by the likes of Swiss NGO Public Eye and Swiss Green Party proposal have so far failed to bear fruit. Thomas Mattern from the Swiss People’s Party (SVP) has spoken out against such a move, insisting that Switzerland should retain its neutrality, “We do not need even more regulation, and not in the commodities sector either.”

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 08/04/2022 – 02:00

• The Three I's Of A Police-State Education: Indoctrination, Intimidation, & Intolerance
  The Three I’s Of A Police-State Education: Indoctrination, Intimidation, & Intolerance

  Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

  “Every day in communities across the United States, children and adolescents spend the majority of their waking hours in schools that have increasingly come to resemble places of detention more than places of learning.”

   – Investigative journalist Annette Fuentes

  This is what it means to go back-to-school in America today.

  Instead of making the schools safer, government officials are making them more authoritarian.

  

  Instead of raising up a generation of civic-minded citizens with critical thinking skills, government officials are churning out compliant drones who know little to nothing about their history or their freedoms.

  And instead of being taught the three R’s of education (reading, writing and arithmetic), young people are being drilled in the three I’s of life in the American police state: indoctrination, intimidation and intolerance.

  From the moment a child enters one of the nation’s 98,000 public schools to the moment he or she graduates, they will be exposed to a steady diet of:

  • draconian zero tolerance policies that criminalize childish behavior,

  • overreaching anti-bullying statutes that criminalize speech,

  • school resource officers (police) tasked with disciplining and/or arresting so-called “disorderly” students,

  • standardized testing that emphasizes rote answers over critical thinking,

  • politically correct mindsets that teach young people to censor themselves and those around them,

  • and extensive biometric and surveillance systems that, coupled with the rest, acclimate young people to a world in which they have no freedom of thought, speech or movement.

  Roped into the government’s profit-driven campaign to keep the nation “safe” from drugs, disease, and weapons, the schools have transformed themselves into quasi-prisons, complete with surveillance cameras, metal detectors, police patrols, zero tolerance policies, lock downs, drug sniffing dogs, strip searches and active shooter drills.

  Young people in America are now first in line to be searched, surveilled, spied on, threatened, tied up, locked down, treated like criminals for non-criminal behavior, tasered and in some cases shot.

  Students are not only punished for minor transgressions such as playing cops and robbers on the playground, bringing LEGOs to school, or having a food fight, but the punishments have become far more severe, shifting from detention and visits to the principal’s office into misdemeanor tickets, juvenile court, handcuffs, tasers and even prison terms.

  Students have been suspended under school zero tolerance policies for bringing to school “look alike substances” such as oregano, breath mints, birth control pills and powdered sugar.

  Look-alike weapons (toy guns—even Lego-sized ones, hand-drawn pictures of guns, pencils twirled in a “threatening” manner, imaginary bows and arrows, fingers positioned like guns) can also land a student in hot water, in some cases getting them expelled from school or charged with a crime.

  Not even good deeds go unpunished.

  One 13-year-old was given detention for exposing the school to “liability” by sharing his lunch with a hungry friend. A third grader was suspended for shaving her head in sympathy for a friend who had lost her hair to chemotherapy. And then there was the high school senior who was suspended for saying “bless you” after a fellow classmate sneezed.

  Having police in the schools only adds to the danger.

  Thanks to a combination of media hype, political pandering and financial incentives, the use of armed police officers (a.k.a. school resource officers) to patrol school hallways has risen dramatically in the years since the Columbine school shooting.

  Indeed, the growing presence of police in the nation’s schools is resulting in greater police “involvement in routine discipline matters that principals and parents used to address without involvement from law enforcement officers.”

  Funded by the U.S. Department of Justice, these school resource officers have become de facto wardens in elementary, middle and high schools, doling out their own brand of justice to the so-called “criminals” in their midst with the help of tasers, pepper spray, batons and brute force.

  In the absence of school-appropriate guidelines, police are more and more “stepping in to deal with minor rulebreaking: sagging pants, disrespectful comments, brief physical skirmishes. What previously might have resulted in a detention or a visit to the principal’s office was replaced with excruciating pain and temporary blindness, often followed by a trip to the courthouse.”

  Not even the younger, elementary school-aged kids are being spared these “hardening” tactics.

  On any given day when school is in session, kids who “act up” in class are pinned facedown on the floor, locked in dark closets, tied up with straps, bungee cords and duct tape, handcuffed, leg shackled, tasered or otherwise restrained, immobilized or placed in solitary confinement in order to bring them under “control.”

  In almost every case, these undeniably harsh methods are used to punish kids—some as young as 4 and 5 years old—for simply failing to follow directions or throwing tantrums.

  Very rarely do the kids pose any credible danger to themselves or others.

  Unbelievably, these tactics are all legal, at least when employed by school officials or school resource officers in the nation’s public schools.

  This is what happens when you introduce police and police tactics into the schools.

  Paradoxically, by the time you add in the lockdowns and active shooter drills, instead of making the schools safer, school officials have succeeded in creating an environment in which children are so traumatized that they suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder, nightmares, anxiety, mistrust of adults in authority, as well as feelings of anger, depression, humiliation, despair and delusion.

  For example, a middle school in Washington State went on lockdown after a student brought a toy gun to class. A Boston high school went into lockdown for four hours after a bullet was discovered in a classroom. A North Carolina elementary school locked down and called in police after a fifth grader reported seeing an unfamiliar man in the school (it turned out to be a parent).

  Police officers at a Florida middle school carried out an active shooter drill in an effort to educate students about how to respond in the event of an actual shooting crisis. Two armed officers, guns loaded and drawn, burst into classrooms, terrorizing the students and placing the school into lockdown mode.

  These police state tactics have not made the schools any safer.

  The fallout has been what you’d expect, with the nation’s young people treated like hardened criminals: handcuffed, arrested, tasered, tackled and taught the painful lesson that the Constitution (especially the Fourth Amendment) doesn’t mean much in the American police state.

  So what’s the answer, not only for the here-and-now—the children growing up in these quasi-prisons—but for the future of this country?

  How do you convince a child who has been routinely handcuffed, shackled, tied down, locked up, and immobilized by government officials—all before he reaches the age of adulthood—that he has any rights at all, let alone the right to challenge wrongdoing, resist oppression and defend himself against injustice?

  Most of all, how do you persuade a fellow American that the government works for him when, for most of his young life, he has been incarcerated in an institution that teaches young people to be obedient and compliant citizens who don’t talk back, don’t question and don’t challenge authority?

  As we’ve seen with other issues, any significant reforms will have to start locally and trickle upwards.

  For starters, parents need to be vocal, visible and organized and demand that school officials 1) adopt a policy of positive reinforcement in dealing with behavior issues; 2) minimize the presence in the schools of police officers and cease involving them in student discipline; and 3) insist that all behavioral issues be addressed first and foremost with a child’s parents, before any other disciplinary tactics are attempted.

  As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, if we want to raise up a generation of freedom fighters who will actually operate with justice, fairness, accountability and equality towards each other and their government, we must start by running the schools like freedom forums.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 23:40

• FBI Whistleblower Leaks "Internal Use Only" Document Of 'How To Spot A Domestic Terrorist'
  FBI Whistleblower Leaks “Internal Use Only” Document Of ‘How To Spot A Domestic Terrorist’

  The FBI’s alliance with the Democratic Party has reached absurd new heights with a newly leaked document revealed by Project Veritas classifying what the agency believes are “Militia Violent Extremists” (MVEs). 

  The “Unclassified/Law Enforcement Sensitive” document for “FBI Internal Use Only” outlines symbols, images, phrases, events, and individuals that special agents should look for when identifying alleged domestic terrorists. 

  Under the “Symbols” section, the document claims MVEs “justify their existence with the Second Amendment, due to the mention of a ‘well-regulated militia,’ as well as the right to bear arms.”

  Below that, under the “Commonly Referenced Historical Imagery and Quotes” section, Revolutionary War images such as the Gadsden Flag and the Betsy Ross Flag are listed as signs of violent extremism. 

  

  In the “Common Phrases and References” section, veteran Ashli Babbitt, who was killed inside the Capitol Building on January 6, 2021, was mentioned as a person that MVEs consider a “martyr.” 

  The document lists Ruby Ridge, Waco, and the Oklahoma City bombing as radical and/or violent events in the past. 

  

  Project Veritas noted an FBI whistleblower leaked the document to them. The bureau’s elitist left-wing officials made no attempt to list symbols, images, phrases, events, and individuals of radical left groups, such as Antifa, who flies a red and black flag, the anarchy flag, the anarcho-socialism flag, and or a Black Lives Matter flag during demonstrations, some of which have been extremely violent and burnt down entire city blocks.  

  

  

  

  

  What’s curious is why the FBI did not bother to summarize symbols and such of radical left groups. It’s another agency the Biden administration has weaponized to target their political opposition. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 23:20

• The Art Of Scandal Implosion: The Political & Media Elite Prepare To Drop Hunter Biden In A "Controlled Demolition"
  The Art Of Scandal Implosion: The Political & Media Elite Prepare To Drop Hunter Biden In A “Controlled Demolition”

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  Below is my column in Fox News on the status of the Hunter Biden investigation and how it presents a challenge for many in Washington. Due to the continued work of a small number of media outlets like the New York Post, it is no longer possible to bury the story or continue the false claim that it is “Russian disinformation.”

  The hope now appears to be a “controlled demolition” where Hunter is indicted on limited grounds without causing collateral damage to the political and media establishment.

  Scandal implosion is as much an art as it is a science and could be the most brilliant achievement in this ongoing scandal.

  

  Here is the column:

  For news junkies, there has been a remarkable and sudden shift in the media in the coverage of the Hunter Biden scandal. The shift is the very fact that there is suddenly coverage of the Hunter Biden scandal. From CNN to NPR, reporters are now acknowledging that the infamous laptop is not “Russian disinformation” as was widely claimed before the 2020 election. After years of burying the story, the media is now attempting an even more precarious exercise.

  It is called controlled demolition: the implosion of a scandal to limit any blast effect on nearby structures or individuals. Like those buildings dropped between other structures, it takes precision and, most importantly, cooperation to pull off.  Specifically, this controlled demolition will require the perfect timing of the media, Democratic politicians, and most importantly, the Justice Department.

  That was the same alliance that successfully killed the story before the election despite evidence of a multimillion dollar influence peddling scheme by the Biden family. The media eagerly spread the false claim of 51 intelligence experts who declared that the laptop was likely “Russian disinformation.” Twitter and social media companies imposed a news blackout before the election. Recently, GOP senators also accused the Justice Department of effectively spiking the investigation — displaying the same bias documented in the Russian collusion investigation.

  For his part, Attorney General Merrick Garland has refused to appoint a special counsel despite the overwhelming need for such an appointment. Even former Attorney General Bill Barr recently said that new evidence makes such an appointment essential ( a reversal of his initial position in giving the case to United States Attorney David Weiss in Delaware).

  I previously wrote a column on the one year anniversary of the Hunter Biden laptop story that marveled at the success of the Biden family in making the scandal vanish before that 2020 election. It was analogized to Houdini making his 10,000-pound elephant Jennie disappear in his act. With the help of the media, the Biden trick occurred live before an audience of millions.

  The problem is the public can now see the elephant.

  That is why the media is now recalibrating. That was most evident in the recent statement of New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman that “I know The New York Times felt it didn’t pursue it originally as much as it wanted to; then it followed up, as I recall.” Friedman does not explain what overrode that journalistic interest in the story or why the “follow up” came a year after the election of Joe Biden.

  It appears that President Biden is no longer seen as a political asset with most Democrats refusing to publicly support him in his promised reelection bid. Biden now  could endanger Democratic control of Congress. The question is how to drop Hunter (and even his father) without causing damage to the media, the Democrats, or others in Washington. It requires a controlled demolition.

  The most important thing is to control the blast. By refusing to appoint a special counsel, Merrick Garland has effectively blocked the risk of a report on the extensive influence peddling, including the repeated references to President Biden. the “Big Guy” is discussed in emails as the potential recipient of a 10 percent cut on a deal with a Chinese energy firm as well as other benefits. Emails also refer to Hunter Biden paying portions of his father’s expenses and taxes. Recently, there was additional support showing that “the Big Guy” was indeed Joe Biden.

  The problem is that embarrassing evidence is mounting by the day. That includes the recent disclosure new open influence peddling by Hunter, referencing access to his father.  Some emails show Hunter using trips with his Dad to arrange meetings with business associates like Magnani. Indeed, in one exchange with Magnani, Hunter complains that he is not getting responses on his business dealings, objecting

  “I have brought every single person you have ever asked me to bring to the F’ing White House and the Vice President’s house and the inauguration and then you go completely silent,. I don’t know what it is that I did but I’d like to know why I’ve delivered on every single thing you’ve ever asked – and you make me feel like I’ve done something to offend you.”

  The cringeworthy email only adds to the embarrassment not of Hunter Biden but the media struggling to control the damage from the scandal.

  Yet, none of that would be the focus of coverage if the case can be ended on narrow criminal charges.

  In other words, the case can then be collapsed by triggering a smaller explosion. Rather than pursue wider conspiracies connected to the influence peddling, Hunter could be indicted on a few tax or lobbying counts. That would allow for a plea bargain that would allow the media to focus narrowly on those counts and not the broader influence peddling by the Biden family.

  Of course, controlled demolition can at times take an unexpected turn. The greatest danger is that either house of Congress could flip to GOP control. That would open up the entire matter to congressional investigation. Yet, if a plea has already closed the case, the legal blowback could be confined.

  The key to political controlled demolitions “to ‘implode’ the building, that is, make it collapse down into its footprint.” The footprint is now Hunter Biden, confining the implosion to him while leaving the media and establishment untouched.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 23:00

• Did Tiger Dump Its Tech Stocks: Fund Up Just 0.4% In July Despite Nasdaq Surge, Still Down 50% YTD
  Did Tiger Dump Its Tech Stocks: Fund Up Just 0.4% In July Despite Nasdaq Surge, Still Down 50% YTD

  The last time we discussed Tiger Global’s catastrophic performance was exactly two months ago when we found the formerly iconic hedge fund reeling in the post-tech crash wasteland of 2022, down a whopping 52% through June having lost money every single month in 2022…

  

  … putting it on track for what Bloomberg called a “Terrible year” and with good reason: 2022 has been its worst annual performance. It also means that the fund, which not too long ago had an AUM of $100 billion and was now a fraction of that, has to make more than 100% just to get back to its high water mark!

  Paradoxically, that’s precisely what investors in Chase Coleman’s fund were expecting it to do, because as of June we found that there was no shortage of idiots out there and Tiger had seen five times more inflows than the amount of redemptions requests, according to Bloolmberg sources. Inflows have come from both firm employees and external clients, all of whom clearly hoping that having come down to the ground so blazingly fast, the fund would also recover its historical performance just as fast.

  And why not: after all, all Coleman needed was for the Fed to pivot dovishly which would unleash a buying frenzy among the GAMMA/tech universe and lead to quick recoveries for the hedge fund.

  Well, perhaps in theory, because in practice things ended up a little different, and according to a Bloomberg report Tiger Global’s hedge fund made just 0.4% in July, bringing its loss this year to 49.8%, despite the frenzied meltup in both the S&P which was up nearly 10% as well as the Nasdaq, which soared 12.3% in July.

  Last month’s disastrous return follows a modest 3.4% rise in June, and can only be explained if one assumes the fund sold most its former tech losers, which would have been blowout winners in July… only they were no longer there.

  A spokesperson for New York-based Tiger declined comment to Bloomberg, because after all what can they say: “yeah, we suck now.”

  And speaking of Tiger’s 50 biggest equity longs, here they are again as of March 31: with the Q2 updated due mid-month, we wouldn’t be surprised to find many of the top tech names slashed to almost zero.

  

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 23:00

• Hurricane Drones Head To Gulf Of Mexico For First Time
  Hurricane Drones Head To Gulf Of Mexico For First Time

  Saildrone Inc. and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are set to launch a fleet of hurricane monitoring drones into the Atlantic Ocean, and for the first time, in the Gulf of Mexico. 

  (1/2) Saildrone 1032 being added to the autonomous armada of ocean drones to help better 4cast hurricanes. This one has the eastern Gulf of Mexico as it’s mission responsibility for the next 90 days. SD1032 is one of 7 responsible for the Atlantic development basin. pic.twitter.com/ZitWY7AFfg

  — Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) August 2, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  A total of seven Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) are heading out for deployment, stationed in areas with a high probability of intercepting a hurricane. Five USVs will sail around the Atlantic and two in the Gulf of Mexico. 

  

  The 23-foot-long USVs captured a stunning video of “where no research vessel has ever ventured” before, the eye of a major storm during the last hurricane season. The vessel sailed through the eye of Category 4 Hurricane Sam in September, battling massive 100-foot waves and roaring 140 mph winds. 

  Saildrone USVs will collect real-time observations from hurricanes that will help forecasters improve storm prediction modeling. 

  “Storms that intensify rapidly can cause extensive damage and loss of life and real-time observing systems are crucial to better understanding the atmospheric and oceanic processes that lead to the formation and intensification of these hurricanes,” said John Cortinas, Director of NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. 

  NOAA predicts an above-average 2022 hurricane season, with up to 21 named storms and three to six major hurricanes. Even though the season’s first two months have been uneventful, peak season has just begun, as illustrated in the graph below. 

  

  The seven saildrones will join a fleet of underwater gliders, surface drifters, profiling floats, and aerial assets to monitor storms. 

  “Uncrewed marine and aircraft systems have the potential to transform how NOAA meets its mission to better understand the environment.

  “These exciting emerging technologies provide NOAA with another valuable tool that can collect data in places we can’t get to with other observing systems,” said Capt. Philip Hall, director of NOAA’s Uncrewed Systems Operations Center.

  New data from saildrones and other uncrewed systems will help guide NOAA in better forecasting hurricanes.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 22:40

• MSNBC Remains Silent After Elie Mystal Unleashes Racist Attack On Herschel Walker
  MSNBC Remains Silent After Elie Mystal Unleashes Racist Attack On Herschel Walker

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  One of the long-standing complaints of media critics has been the double standard applied to liberal and conservative figures voicing controversial viewpoints.

  For example, columnists celebrated the firing of former Sen. Rick Santorum at CNN for making insensitive or false comments about the influence of Native American culture on the United States. When racist statements, however, are made by those on the left, there is no such hue and cry.

  The latest example is MSNBC regular Elie Mystal, who launched into a racist diatribe against Republican Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker who is African American.

  

  During a segment on “The Cross Connection,” Mystal suggested Walker was supported because he does what Republicans “want from their Negroes.”

  “You ask why are Republicans backing this man who’s so clearly unintelligent, who so clearly doesn’t have independent thoughts, but that’s actually the reason. Walker is going to do what he’s told, and that is what Republicans like. That’s what Republicans want from their Negroes: to do what they were told. And Walker presents exactly as a person who lacks independent thoughts, lacks an independent agenda, lacks an independent ability to grasp policies, and he’s just going to go in there and vote like Mitch McConnell tells them to vote.”

  Mystal has previously caused uproars for controversial claims from accusing a senator of wanting to murder Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson to his continued attacks on a high school student even after he was cleared of a false race-based story. He has called the Constitution “trash” and previously stated that white, non-college-educated voters supported Republicans because they care about “using their guns on Black people and getting away with it.” He has also lashed out at “white society” and explained how he strived to maintain a “whiteness free” life in the pandemic.

  Many clearly relish Mystal’s race-baiting takes on issues on MSNBC. The issue, in my view, is not why Mystal is allowed to continue to make such comments on a network but the clear double standard applied to such commentators.

  We have seen the same double standard at universities. For example, Women’s Studies Professor Donna Hughes was publicly condemned by the University of Rhode Island for writing an op-ed that criticized what she called the LGBTQ ideology.  Yet, the university has largely remain silent on the writings of Director of Graduate Studies of History Erik Loomis, who has defended the murder of a conservative protester and said that he saw “nothing wrong” with such acts of violence. Loomis also declared that “Science, statistics, and technology are all inherently racist because they are developed by racists who live in a racist society, whether they identify as racists or not.”

  I have defended faculty who have made an array of disturbing comments about “detonating white people,” denouncing police, calling for Republicans to suffer,  strangling police officers, celebrating the death of conservatives, calling for the killing of Trump supporters, supporting the murder of conservative protesters and other outrageous statements.

  Yet, liberal professors continue to enjoy the full protection of academic freedom and free speech. Indeed, at the University of California campus, professors actually rallied around a professor who physically assaulted pro-life advocates and tore down their display.

  The fact is that most faculty hold liberal views and do not feel threatened by such biased, content-based approaches to free speech and academic freedom. Others remain silent to avoid being the next tagged in the next campaign.

  The support enjoyed by faculty on the far left is in sharp contrast to the treatment given faculty with moderate, conservative or libertarian views. Anyone who raises such dissenting views is immediately set upon by a mob demanding their investigation or termination. This includes blocking academics from speaking on campuses like a recent Classics professor due to their political views. Conservatives and libertarians understand that they have no cushion or protection in any controversy, even if it involves a single, later deleted tweet. At the University of North Carolina (Wilmington) one such campaign led to a professor killing himself a few days before his final day as a professor.

  Mystal knows that he has a license to speak that is denied to those on the right on platforms like MSNBC. He wrote an April column calling Walker’s campaign a “political minstrel show.” He later attacked New York mayor Eric Adams bizarrely as a “conservative”  and then added “these tokens who are out here right now shucking and jiving for their White handlers.”

  Obviously, such attacks on liberal black figures would not be tolerated by the media and a commentator would be barred by many platforms as persona non grata. Again, I believe that we all benefit from having an array of different views, including controversial views like those of Mystal and Santorum. The worst approach is to maintain a double standard where racist or controversial commentary is celebrated from the left while condemned on the right.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 22:20

• Visualizing America's Brewery Boom
  Visualizing America’s Brewery Boom

  Like many other businesses, America’s breweries were desperately trying to stay afloat in the sea of economic devastation brought along by the Covid-19 pandemic.

  Shuttered restaurants and pubs hit sales hard, taproom transactions evaporated and the distribution of kegs ceased. A Daily Beast article from May 2020 warned that 3,600 of America’s breweries could go out of business and that coronavirus could kill craft beer.

  However, as Statista’s Martin Armstrong reports, fast-forward to 2021 though, and it seems reports of craft beer’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  While the Brewers Association’s midyear report for 2020 did indeed show that the U.S. beer scene was facing an unprecedented challenge, it certainly wasn’t the doomsday scenario some were expecting. Volumes declined 10 percent during the first six months of the year compared to 2019 while the brewery count grew by 737. That is slower than the 1,000 new breweries added by mid-year 2019 but still an impressive performance given the situation. The latest figures, for 2021, reveal a more subdued but still healthy rate of growth: “Overall U.S. beer volume sales were up 1 percent in 2021, while craft brewer volume sales grew 8 percent, raising small and independent brewers’ share of the U.S. beer market by volume to 13.1 percent”.

  This International Beer Day, brewers can surely take heart from the incredibly successful decade they have behind them. Historically, the U.S boasted 4,144 breweries in 1873, a number that fell drastically by the middle of the 20th century. After Prohibition, the brewery count grew extremely slowly and as recently as the 1970s, the country had fewer than 100 functional breweries. 1978 was particularly poor with the count falling to just 89. Amid the craft beer explosion, such a low number is now unthinkable.

  Up until the pandemic, the biggest problem thirsty revelers was the near infinite number of beers to choose from. According to the Brewers Association, the brewery count has grown spectacularly over the past 10+ years. In 2006, the U.S. had 1,460 of them and by 2019, the count had skyrocketed to 8,530. In 2021, that figure rose to 9,247.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 22:00

• Subpoenas To Return 'Treasure Trove' Of Documents From Biden Administration: Louisiana AG
  Subpoenas To Return ‘Treasure Trove’ Of Documents From Biden Administration: Louisiana AG

  Authored by Zachary Stieber and Jan Jekielek via The Epoch Times,

  The subpoenas and discovery requests sent out as part of a lawsuit against the federal government are going to bring back reams of information, Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry says.

  

  Landry and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt, both Republicans, sued the Biden administration in May, arguing the government colluded with Big tech companies to violate the constitutional rights of Americans.

  U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty, a Trump appointee, recently ruled in favor of the plaintiffs. Government officials like Dr. Anthony Fauci and companies including Facebook were served soon after.

  “We’ve got a treasure trove of information that we think are going to come to us here shortly,” Landry said on EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders.”

  “The subpoenas have gone out. They’re being served. I think Dr. Fauci got served, and he and other members of the president’s Cabinet, and they’re gonna have to send us communications between them and the platforms. And what we believe we’ll find is communications between them telling them what they should and shouldn’t put out or what they should suppress, and what they should amplify,” he added.

  Government officials have said they have not acted improperly.

  Officials have for years commented on how social media platforms operate, and the federal government is not responsible for how platforms moderate content, U.S. lawyers said in a filing in the case, Missouri and Louisiana v. President Biden et al.

  “Those companies independently chose to combat misinformation years ago, before this administration took office, and before the federal officials sued here made the comments at issue. Indeed, although the Complaint cites numerous statements by government officials, it does not identify how those statements are connected to the moderation decisions that purportedly harmed their resident,” they said.

  The government is seeking to dismiss the case.

  Violating Rights

  Landry said that the government is violating citizens’ rights by pressuring companies to ban or take other punitive action against users. In a separate case, documents released this month showed U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials highlighting specific posts in messages to Twitter executives while complaining about alleged misinformation from those users. Whistleblower documents released by two U.S. senators in June, meanwhile, showed that U.S. officials had been in touch with Twitter over purported disinformation.

  “I think what we found, and what the whistleblowers put out, was that the government was actually engaged, and the White House, in directly communicating with Big Tech on stories and information that they either wanted suppressed or put out,” Landry said.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 21:40

• Which States Allow The Permitless Carry Of Guns?
  Which States Allow The Permitless Carry Of Guns?

  In January of 2023, Alabama will become the 25th state in the U.S. that isn’t requiring any permits to carry a gun in public.

  As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, in recent years, more and more states have enacted similar legislation. Indiana, together with Georgia and Ohio, did so this year.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  The change made headlines as it occurred just two weeks before a deadly mass shooting at a mall in an Indianapolis suburb, where a gunman killed three and wounded two more before being shot dead by a bystander who also carried a gun.

  In 2021, as many as six states enacted so-called constitutional carry laws – Utah, Montana, Iowa, Tennessee, Arkansas and Texas. For many decades, Vermont was the only state with these types of laws, which is why the practice is sometimes also referred to as “Vermont carry”. In 2011, Wyoming was the first state to enact or re-introduce similar laws.

  Throughout the U.S., there are eight states requiring permits for open and concealed carry. Another four (plus Washington D.C.) require permits for concealed carry and prohibit the open carry of most guns. 13 states allow the open carry of guns without a permit while requiring one for concealed carry (no states do it the other way around).

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 21:20

• 10 Promising Signs That The Insidious Mind-Control-Matrix The Elite Have Created Is Starting To Crumble
  10 Promising Signs That The Insidious Mind-Control-Matrix The Elite Have Created Is Starting To Crumble

  Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

  Are we witnessing the start of some sort of a mass awakening in the western world?  For years, I have been writing about the extremely complex systems that are designed to shape and control what we think.  Today, the vast majority of the “news” and “entertainment” that most of us consume is controlled by just a very small handful of immensely powerful corporations.  And of course those corporations are ultimately owned and controlled by the elite of the world.  To a very large degree, the elite have been able to determine what we focus on, what we think about current events, and how we feel about the world around us.  For such a long time, most of the population would take whatever narratives that were pushed upon them by their corporate overlords as the gospel truth, and that always greatly frustrated me.  Fortunately, there are indications that times are changing.

  

  In order for any society to function effectively, there must be a high level of trust.

  Unfortunately for the elite, we simply do not trust them anymore.

  Trust in our politicians has fallen to an all-time low.

  Trust in the media has fallen to an all-time low.

  Trust in our corporations has fallen to an all-time low.

  Trust in our health care system has fallen to an all-time low.

  Trust in our education system has fallen to an all-time low.

  Trust in the tech industry has fallen to an all-time low.

  We no longer are buying into the crap that they keep shoveling our way.

  And that is a really, really good thing.

  It is morally wrong for them to try to control what we think.  It is absolutely imperative that we all learn to think for ourselves, because that is the only way that we will ever be truly free.

  I have been writing about this stuff for years and years, and a number of recent trends have given me hope that people are starting to wake up on a widespread basis.  The following are 10 promising signs that the insidious mind control matrix the elite have created is starting to crumble…

  #1 According to a recent Gallup survey, only 16 percent of U.S. adults have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in newspapers and only 11 percent of U.S. adults have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in television news.

  #2 All over the Internet I am seeing article after article speaking out against the World Economic Forum.  That is an incredibly hopeful sign.

  #3 In the Netherlands, a new government plan would “cut fertilizer use and reduce livestock numbers so drastically that it will force many farms out of business”.  This plan is deeply evil, but the massive farmer protests that have been sparked as a result are a really beautiful thing.

  #4 After being arrested, a British man was told this: “Someone has been caused anxiety based on your social media post. And that is why you’re being arrested”.  But the good news is that there has been a tremendous backlash on social media and so far the video of his arrest has already been viewed more than 2 million times.

  #5 As more people on the west coast wake up, the exodus out of the state of California is rapidly becoming a stampede.

  #6 Despite all of the spin from the Biden administration, 66 percent of Americans say that they believe that we are either in a recession or a depression right now.

  #7 Joe Biden’s overall approval rating has fallen to an all-time low of 36 percent.

  #8 Joe Biden’s economic approval rating has fallen to an all-time low of 30 percent.

  #9 A recent CNN poll discovered that a whopping 75 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters actually want their party to nominate someone other than Biden in 2024.

  #10 According to a recent Pew Research survey, only 24 percent of U.S. adults are satisfied with the current state of the country.

  Almost all of us can see that our society is on the wrong track, and that is the first step in getting back on the right track.

  As time rolls along, I believe that more and more of us will wake up.

  And in the end I believe that the current “world order” that the western elite have tried so hard to establish will fall.

  That process will be incredibly chaotic, but the end result will be worth it.

  Before I end this article, there is one more thing that I wanted to mention.

  According to scientists, we just experienced the shortest day ever recorded…

  The shortest day on record has been broken by the planet Earth. On June 29, 2022, the planet completed its entire rotation in just 1.59 milliseconds, or slightly more than one thousandth of a second, less time than it typically takes for a 24-hour rotation.

  Recently, the Earth has been moving quicker. Since the 1960s, 2020 marked the shortest month on record for the planet. On July 19 of that year, 1.47 milliseconds shorter than a typical 24-hour day, scientists recorded the shortest day so far.

  Are the days being shortened?

  I often tell people that it feels like the days are going by faster than ever, but I thought that it was just my imagination.

  I have been told that as we get older it can seem like time is passing more quickly, and without a doubt 2022 seems like it is the fastest year yet.

  It is hard to believe that the beginning of August is already here.

  2023 will arrive before we know it, and I believe that 2023 will be a year that changes everything.

  I know that there are a lot of bad things that are happening right now, and a lot of my articles tend to focus on those bad things.

  But the truth is that there are a lot of good things happening too.

  In fact, there is no other time in all of human history that I would have rather lived than right now.

  It is when times are the darkest that the greatest heroes are needed, and the years ahead will provide plenty of opportunities for you to be the kind of hero that you were always meant to be.

  *  *  *

  It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 21:00

• These Are The World Airports To Avoid This Summer
  These Are The World Airports To Avoid This Summer

  Although international air travel has bounced back faster than expected from the pandemic, Statista’s Anna Fleck notes that the industry is still yet to fully recover following all of the staffing shortages and surge in demand this vacation season.

  Airports have had exceptionally long queues this summer, with London’s Heathrow seeing luggage pile ups and even telling its airlines to stop selling summer flights. If you’re thinking of planning a trip away, it may be worth picking your departure and arrivals locations wisely, as some airports have been worse than others, as our infographic based on FlightAware data shows.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Canada’s Toronto Pearson International Airport topped the list as the worst airport to fly out of between May 26 – July 19 this year, with more than half of its flights being delayed.

  

  Frankfurt Airport in Germany fared little better, with 45.4 percent of its flights seeing setbacks.

  The UK is the only country to have two airports make it onto the list in this time period, both of which – Gatwick and Heathrow – are based in London.

  Meanwhile, Australia’s Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport placed ninth (34.2 percent) and the U.S. Orlando International Airport tenth (33.4 percent).

  The list of airports with the highest rate of cancellations paints a slightly different picture, with two Chinese airports (Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport with 7.9 percent; Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport with 5.2 percent) and three U.S. airports (Newark Liberty International Airport 7.4 percent; LaGuardia Airport 7 percent; Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport at 5 percent) making the top 10 roundup. Amsterdam’s Schiphol is Europe’s worst offender for cancellations, with 3.9 percent of all flights having been called off.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 20:40

• Walmart Lays Off Hundreds Of Corporate Workers
  Walmart Lays Off Hundreds Of Corporate Workers

  Amid the silly debate whether 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP are enough to trigger a recession, or we have to wait for a 3rd, 4th, 5th and so, on if the president is a Democrat before the NBER will starts paying attention, today Walmart – which recently reported horrific earnings when it warned that low-income America is careening into the abyss, decided to take a shortcut to the promised recession land after the WSJ reported that the giant US retailer was cutting hundreds of corporate roles in a restructuring effort one week after it warned of falling profits.

  The retailer began notifying employees in its Bentonville, Ark., headquarters and other corporate offices of the restructuring, which affects various departments including merchandising, global technology and real-estate teams, the people said. Around 200 jobs in total are being cut, said one of these people.

  To mitigate the media fallout, a Walmart spokeswoman confirmed to the WSJ that there were roles being eliminated as the company updated its structure, but said that the company was also investing in other areas and creating some new roles.

  Last week, Walmart stunned investors when it slashed guidance again and warned that its profit would decline in the current quarter and fiscal year because it was having to mark down apparel and other merchandise that has piled up in its stores. The retailer said higher prices for food and fuel were causing U.S. shoppers to pull back on other categories that are more profitable for it. In response its stock price suffered its biggest one day drop in decades.

  As we had warned two months ago, Walmart ended up being one of several retailers caught off guard by the “reverse bull whip” effect this spring as shoppers shifted their spending away from products that have been in high demand throughout much of the pandemic. In addition, some products arrived late due to supply-chain snarls, causing oversupply as shopper interest waned. Similar to Walmart, Target issued a profit warning in June after it reported quarterly results that showed a surge in inventory levels. And last week, Best Buy crashed after it cut its sales and profit goals, saying consumers had pulled back on electronics.

  Walmart is the largest private employer in the U.S. and while much of its workers are hourly staff, it has thousands of people in corporate roles. Walmart employed 2.3 million worldwide, including 1.7 million in the U.S., as of Jan. 31. If corporate – i.e., muscle – is being cut, expect stealthy mass layoffs among the fat in the coming weeks.

  While the overall U.S. job market has been seen as strong – even if erroneously because as we first explained last month the Household survey has been a disaster…

  

  …. a handful of major US employers have pulled back on hiring or are outright cutting jobs. Ford is preparing to cut thousands of white-collar workers, while technology giants such as Microsoft and Facebook parent Meta Platforms, and many others have pulled back.

  

  And while the ADP is busy fudging its numbers and did not publish a monthly private payrolls report this month, investors get another update on the health of the U.S. job market on Friday when the government releases data for July. Economists expect only 250,000 to be added in July, compared with 372,000 in June. We expect a huge miss.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 20:20

• Here's How Much You Need To Earn To Afford A Home In 50 US Cities
  Here’s How Much You Need To Earn To Afford A Home In 50 US Cities

  Depending on where you live, owning a home may seem like a far off dream or it could be fairly realistic. As Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop details below, in New York City, for example, a person needs to be making at least six figures to buy a home, but in Cleveland you could do it with just over $45,000 a year.

  This visual, using data from Home Sweet Home, maps out the annual salary you’d need for home ownership in 50 different U.S. cities.

  

  Note: The map above refers to entire metro areas and uses Q1 2022 data on median home prices. The necessary salary was calculated by the source, looking at the base cost of principal, interest, property tax, and homeowner’s insurance.

  Home Ownership Across the U.S.

  San Jose is by far the most expensive city when it comes to purchasing a home. A person would need to earn over $330,000 annually to pay off the mortgage at a monthly rate of $7,718.

  Here’s a closer look at the numbers. These are the Top 10 most expensive cities…

  

  And the Bottom 10 least expensive cities…

  

   

  Perhaps surprisingly, Boston residents need slightly higher earnings than New Yorkers to buy a home. The same is also true in Seattle and Los Angeles. Meanwhile, some of the cheapest cities to start buying up real estate in are Oklahoma City and Cleveland.

   

  As of April, the rate of home ownership in the U.S. is 65%. This number represents the share of homes that are occupied by the owner, rather than rented out or vacant.

  The American Dream Home

  As of the time of this data (Q1 2022), the national yearly fixed mortgage rate sat at 4% and median home price at $368,200. This put the salary needed to buy a home at almost $76,000⁠—the median national household income falls almost $9,000 below that.

  But what kind of homes are people looking to purchase? Depending on where you live the type of home and square footage you can get will be very different.

  In New York City, for example, there are fairly few stand-alone, single-family houses in the traditional sense⁠—only around 4,000 are ever on the market. People in the Big Apple tend to buy condominiums or multi-family units.

  Additionally, if you’re looking for luxury, not even seven figures will get you much in the big cities. In Miami, a million dollars will only buy you 833 square feet of prime real estate.

  One thing is for sure: the typical American dream home of the big house with a yard and white picket fence is more attainable in smaller metro areas with ample suburbs.

  Buying vs. Renting

  The U.S. median household income is $67,500, meaning that today the typical family could only afford a home in about 15 of the 50 metro areas highlighted above, including New Orleans, Buffalo, and Indianapolis.

  With the income gap widening in the U.S., the rental market remains a more attractive option for many, especially as prices are finally tapering off. The national median rent price was down nearly 3% from June to July for two-bedroom apartments.

  At the end of the day, buying a home can be an important investment and may provide a sense of security, but it will be much easier to do in certain types of cities.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 20:00

• Leaked Email Shows NYC Struggling To Cope With 'Drastic Influx' Of Illegal Aliens Amid Border Crisis
  Leaked Email Shows NYC Struggling To Cope With ‘Drastic Influx’ Of Illegal Aliens Amid Border Crisis

  Authored by Michael Washburn via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  An email recently sent from New York City’s Human Resources Administration (HRA) to all names on its distribution list, and obtained by The Epoch Times, urged all staff who can work overtime to do so, to deal with a “drastic influx of asylum seekers” in Manhattan and the outer boroughs.

  

  The internal request came about a week after the city’s Mayor Eric Adams described the growing stream of illegal aliens coming into the Big Apple as a “real burden on New Yorkers,” adding that the city already had “an overburdened shelter system.”

  Dated July 28, the email stated: “Dear DSS/HRA Leadership and Staff, In recent weeks, we have seen a drastic influx of asylum seekers coming to our shelter intake sites. As a result, DHS is standing up several emergency shelters to ensure we have the capacity for these individuals.”

  The Department of Social Services (DSS) is charged with administering public assistance programs in the city, and is composed of the HRA and the Department of Homeless Services (DHS).

  The email showed urgent internal efforts by social services agencies to grapple with the surge in illegal aliens arriving in New York City amid an ongoing border crisis that is vexing the Biden administration.

  It continues with a plea for staff of the agency to commit to working overtime in order to help deal with the massive influx. “While we implement a longer term solution, there is a critical immediate need for Agency staff members to volunteer to work overtime to help manage these sites. Eligible employees who volunteer for this opportunity may earn cash overtime in accordance with contractual guidelines,” it stated.

  “If you have availability to assist outside of your regularly scheduled hours, please speak with your supervisor to confirm and then enter your information via the link below. Participation is subject to final approval by Agency senior staff,” the email continued.

  On July 29, the day after the email, the HSA and DSS declared an emergency, noting in a letter (pdf) to Comptroller Brad Lander and the city’s top lawyer Sylvia Hinds-Radix that as of July 28, some 4,000 asylum seekers had entered New York’s shelter system in the past three months, driving up the DHS census by roughly 10 percent.

  

  Influx

  For some experts and advocates, the developments suggest that not even recent public statements by Adams, in which the mayor acknowledged the problems resulting from the huge influx of asylum seekers south of the border, have provided a full and accurate measure of the strain that local authorities are experiencing.

  On July 19, the mayor’s office issued a plea for federal help, issuing a statement that read: “New York has experienced a sharp increase in asylum seekers from Latin America and other regions, with more than 2,800 individuals entering New York City’s shelter system.”

  “In some instances, families are arriving on buses sent by the Texas and Arizona governments, while in other cases, it appears that individuals are being sent by the federal government,” Adams said in the statement.

  The mayor then issued an urgent plea: “In order to meet both the legal mandate as a right-to-shelter city and provide high-quality shelter and services for those who enter our system, New York City needs additional federal resources immediately. If we do not get these urgently needed resources, we may struggle to provide the proper level of support our clients deserve.”

  

  Criticism

  Adam’s response has not satisfied some local advocacy and social services organizations, who have sharply criticized the mayor for what they characterize as his lack of preparedness and for trying to deflect blame for the situation to the federal level.

  The Legal Aid Society and the Coalition for the Homeless released a joint statement on July 21 addressing what they called Adams’s “misleading and problematic comments” on the surge.

  “The Mayor isn’t speaking the whole truth. We spoke to eight families with children this morning who slept on the floor last night at the City’s shelter intake center in the Bronx, in addition to the four families the Mayor acknowledged who had slept there Sunday night. This humanitarian crisis shows no sign of abating anytime soon regardless of how many press conferences the Mayor holds to conceal this reality.”

  The mayor and his officials knew what was brewing on the southern border and could have taken action months ago to avert the crisis, the advocates alleged.

  “As City officials just acknowledged, they have known about this influx of families, a portion attributable to those seeking asylum, for months. But, despite this knowledge, the Administration still lacks a plan to ensure safe shelter placement, and officials failed to detail any specifics for a viable path forward at today’s press conference, opting instead to heap praise on each other,” the statement continued.

  “The City is also failing to use its resources to move people into permanent housing,” it added.

  Conflicting Priorities

  Stephen Eide, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute think tank who studies the homelessness issue, told the Epoch Times that the Adams administration has struggled to fulfill the terms of the right-to-shelter mandate in the midst of the unexpected arrivals.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 19:40

• US Approves Massive Patriot Missile Deal With Saudis After Biden 'Rehabilitates' MbS
  US Approves Massive Patriot Missile Deal With Saudis After Biden ‘Rehabilitates’ MbS

  On Tuesday while media headlines and the world’s attention was largely focused on Nancy Pelosi’s provocative Taiwan visit, the Biden administration quietly unveiled a massive new arms deal for Saudi Arabia and the UAE – described as the United States’ close “Middle East partners”. 

  “The US State Department today approved more than $5 billion in arms deals for key Middle East partners, including $3.05 billion in Patriot missiles for Saudi Arabia and $2.25 billion in THAAD systems for the United Arab Emirates,” Breaking Defense wrote of the approval.

  

  Likely the deal was under preparation for a long time, given its size, with President Biden’s July 15 visit to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia – where he had his infamous fist-bump greeting and meeting with a grinning crown prince Mohammed bin Salman – having sealed it. Essentially this was the Biden administration bestowing ‘forgiveness’ for the Saudi state murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

  MbS even went on what was widely dubbed a “rehabilitation tour” of Europe, with official state visits to Greece and France, at a moment the West is badly in need of more oil supplies as it attempts to punish Vladimir Putin’s Russia for the ongoing Ukraine war.

  So now it can be the return of “business as usual” – with the US also as usual placing emphasis on ‘countering Iran’ by supplying Gulf partners with anti-air defenses, which Riyadh has asked for amid increased long-range rocket fire from Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

  “These missiles are used to defend the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s borders against persistent Houthi cross-border unmanned aerial system and ballistic missile attacks on civilian sites and critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia,” a statement by the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) reads. “These attacks threaten the well-being of Saudi, International, and U.S. citizens (approximately 70,000) residing in the Kingdom. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will have no difficulty absorbing these missiles into its armed forces.”

  Despite the ‘countering Iran’ rhetoric… well, there’s also other reasons.

  The US approves two massive arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to help them defend against Iran. The deal comes just weeks after Biden’s Middle East visit. The new sales includes $3 billion for Patriot missiles for Saudi Arabia and $2.2 billion for the UAE pic.twitter.com/BS1DUnHdko

  — breaking news 🇷🇺🇷🇺🇮🇱 (@1ghostofKiev) August 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The DSCA further indicated the deal will cover 300 PATRIOT MIM-104E Guidance Enhanced Missile-Tactical Ballistic missiles (GEM-T) and support equipment primarily from Raytheon, with an aim toward replenishing the kingdom’s “dwindling” stockpile of Patriot missiles.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 19:20

• DOD "Wiped" Phones Of Senior Trump Officials – Jan. 6 Communications No Longer Accessible
  DOD “Wiped” Phones Of Senior Trump Officials – Jan. 6 Communications No Longer Accessible

  Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Some senior Trump administration officials had their phones “wiped” by the Department of Defense (DOD) and the U.S. Army after the former president left office, meaning messages that were sent around the time of the Jan. 6 Capitol breach are no longer accessible, court filings show.

  

  The DOD acknowledged that the phones belonging to former Pentagon officials had been wiped as part of a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit filed by American Oversight, a non-profit watchdog organization.

  American Oversight had sought the communications that those officials had with Trump, former Vice President Pence, Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, or anyone communicating on their behalf on Jan. 6.

  The watchdog group submitted the FOIA requests pertaining to the records on Jan. 12, 2021, six days after the breach of the Capitol building.

  Specifically, FOIA requests sought communications from former acting Secretary of Defense Chris Miller, former chief of staff Kash Patel, and former Secretary of the Army Ryan McCarthy, Paul Ney, the Defense Department’s general counsel; and James E. McPherson, the Army’s general counsel.

  However, in a court filing roughly a year after the request, the Army stated that “when an employee separates from DOD or Army he or she turns in the government issued phone, and the phone is wiped” and that “for those custodians no longer with the agency, the text messages were not preserved and therefore could not be searched.”

  The court filing noted, however, that “it is possible that particular text messages could have been saved into other records systems such as email.”

  Secret Service Swipe

  The DOD’s admission in the filings creates further transparency issues regarding the Jan. 6 select committee’s investigation into the events of that day in 2021 and how the government responded.

  It also comes shortly after it was revealed that U.S. Secret Service text messages sent on the day the breach had also been deleted.

  A number of texts from secret service members from Jan. 5 and Jan. 6, “were erased as part of a device-replacement program,” Joseph Cuffari, the Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general, told lawmakers in a July letter.

  Last week, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) wrote to Attorney General Merrick Garland and asked him to take control of the investigation into the missing DHS and Secret Service messages.

  “It’s just astounding to believe that the agency did not understand the importance of preserving its records—particularly [with regards] to the top officials that might have captured: what they were doing when they were doing it, why they were doing, it on that day,” Heather Sawyer, executive director of American Oversight, told CNN.

  The U.S. Army Public Affairs media relations chief, Col. Cathy Wilkinson, said in a statement to the news outlet: “It is our policy not to comment on ongoing litigation.”

  In a statement to The Epoch Times, the Defense Department also declined to comment “on pending litigation.”

  American Oversight is now calling for an investigation into the DOD’s failure to preserve text messages and other communications from Jan. 6.

  ‘Cross-Agency Investigation’ Needed

  In a letter (pdf) sent to Attorney General Garland on Tuesday, Sawyer said the alleged deletion of the records of communication by multiple agencies “bolsters the need for a cross-agency investigation into the possible destruction of federal records” adding that the communications “could have shed light on the actions of top Trump administration officials on the day of the failed insurrection.”

  The letter also stated that Patel, Ney, and Miller had all departed from their roles “after American Oversight had submitted FOIA requests specifically seeking text messages and requesting that the agencies take steps to prevent the deletion of potentially responsive records.”

  “American Oversight accordingly urges you to investigate DOD’s actions in allowing the destruction of records potentially relevant to this significant matter of national attention and historical importance,” the letter said.

  Additionally, American Oversight has also requested the communications of Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville and Director of Army Staff Lt. Gen. Walter E. Piatt.

  The Army told the watchdog group that it has initiated a search for records held by McConville and Piatt, and estimates that the search will be completed by the end of September.

  The Epoch Times has contacted the DOD and the Justice Department for comment.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 19:00

• Warehouse Space Is All Of A Sudden In High Demand As A Looming "Reverse Bullwhip" Inventory Glut Looms
  Warehouse Space Is All Of A Sudden In High Demand As A Looming “Reverse Bullwhip” Inventory Glut Looms

  Tell us there’s an inventory glut swelling without telling us that there’s an inventory glut swelling…

  We have been writing over the last couple months about the coming reverse bullwhip effect – most recently noting inventory of semiconductor chips that is piling up in South Korea – and this week it is being reported that companies are seeking new warehouse space just to keep up with growth in inventories.

  Retailers are “struggling to find space,” the Wall Street Journal reported this week, stating that Prologis expects an additional 800 million square feet of warehouse space to be needed beyond earlier projections to handle the excess inventories”. 

  

  Chris Caton, managing director of global strategy and analytics at Prologis, told the Journal: “We have specifically heard from customers who are looking at carrying more inventories and are leasing space.”

  Names like Walmart and Best Buy have reported they are dealing with inventory gluts, including in clothes, kitchen appliances and electronics. The gluts are a result of consumers spending less as inflation continues to put pressure on the middle and lower class in the country. 

  Supply chain bottlenecks have also prompted retailers to make sure they have more goods on hand to prevent empty store shelves. Some retailers are bulking up orders just to be safe, and the excess inventory isn’t just jamming up warehouses, it’s also clogging seaports and distribution networks, the report says.

  

  Prologis predicts that “across the company’s some 5,800 customers, the increased demand amounts to an average of about 138,000 square feet per client,” WSJ wrote. 

  Chris Caplice, executive director of Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Transportation and Logistics, is cautious, however. He said: “I don’t think it’s going to be like, we need to double the amount of warehouse space” and predicts that forecasts for more capacity may be overblown. 

  But Karl Siebrecht, chief executive of Seattle-based Flexe Inc., which connects businesses to warehouses with shared space, confirmed the trend to the WSJ: “We do see this dynamic happening across many of our customers. When you increase inventory, you must increase the capacity of warehouses to hold that inventory.”

  Recall, in the last two months we have talked about the reverse bullwhip effect many times:

  • Semiconductor Inventories In South Korea Surge To Most In 6 Years 

  • Bullwhip Effect Will Force Powell To Pivot

  • Bullwhip Effect Ends With A Bang: Why Prices Are About To Fall Off A Cliff

  • Deflationary Tsunami On Deck: A “Tidal Wave” Of Discounts And Crashing Prices

  In these pieces we talked about the coming “bullwhip” effect and when formerly a scarcity of inventory becomes a glut, with inventory to sales ratios exploding higher (and in some cases reaching two-decade highs)…

  

  … assuring inventory liquidations across the retail sector, resulting in a “deflationary tsunami” and “prices falling off a cliff“, forcing the Fed to eventually pivot on its hiking plans and even restart easing.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 08/03/2022 – 18:40