Today’s News 17th September 2022

  • Is The End Of COVID-19 In Sight?
    Is The End Of COVID-19 In Sight?

    Delivering his most upbeat message since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, said that the end of the pandemic was finally near.

    “We have never been in a better position to end the pandemic. We are not there yet, but the end is in sight,” he said at a media briefing on Wednesday.

    Using the image of a marathon runner approaching the finish line, Dr. Tedros warned against complacency, however, saying that “a marathon runner does not stop when the finish line comes into view. She runs harder, with all the energy she has left.”

    Statista’s Felix Richter notes that while the world is still seeing millions of new Covid-19 cases per week, with the real number probably even higher due to limited testing, those infections are no longer resulting in as many severe cases or deaths as we’ve seen in earlier stages of the pandemic.

    Infographic: End of Covid-19 'in Sight'? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The weekly number of deaths is now lower than it has been at the end of March 2020, and it’s been below that level for a couple of months now.

    Make no mistake, more than one million people still died from Covid this year, but the latest trend in hospitalizations and deaths is encouraging.

    “We can see the finish line,” Dr. Tedros said in conclusion.

    “We’re in a winning position. But now is the worst time to stop running.” To help the world cross the line and avoid the risk of “more variants, more deaths, more disruption, and more uncertainty, the WHO released six policy briefs outlining best practices to save lives, protect health systems, and avoid social and economic disruption.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 23:20

  • 'Toxic' Values Undermining US Ability To Tackle Beijing: Senator
    ‘Toxic’ Values Undermining US Ability To Tackle Beijing: Senator

    Authored by Daniel Y. Teng via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Visiting Australian Senator Andrew Hastie says basic struggles with identifying gender are undermining the ability of the United States to lead the developed world in opposing military aggression from Beijing.

    These tensions are tearing at the fabric of our democracies, many among us are no longer confident of truth, tradition, and our democratic values,” Hastie, a former Special Air Service operative, told the Hudson Institute on Sept. 15.

    U.S. Military Academy cadets attend the 2020 graduation ceremony at West Point, New York, on June 13, 2020. (Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images)

    The now-opposition defence minister pointed to research by Prof. James Kurth, of Swathmore College, who said the real culture clash was not between the “West and the rest” but within the West itself.

    “This is a clash between Western civilisation and a different grand alliance, one composed of the multicultural and the feminist movements. It is, in short, a clash between Western and post-Western civilisations,” Kurth wrote in The National Interest in 1994.

    The professor predicted in his article that there would be a lack of consensus on basic issues like humanity, justice, and within politics.

    Andrew Hastie during Question Time in the House of Representatives at Parliament House in Canberra on Nov. 27, 2019. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)

    In turn, Hastie said this conflict was no longer just playing out in universities but in the mainstream.

    “Toxins are in the mainstream now, seeping through the media, entertainment, in our schools, and our families. It has brought disruption and political consequences for the Western body politic. It makes it harder for our leaders and policymakers to deal with the strategic challenges,” the senator said.

    Hastie said smaller nations could not set into play grand strategies and could only follow bigger countries like the United States.

    “Put starkly, if we can’t agree on basic definitions of gender, how can we possibly agree on national strategy? If we can’t agree on Western values, how can we defend the West?” he added.

    If we look up from the cultural chaos at home, we see China encroaching on Taiwan and Russia on Eastern Europe.”

    An example of the ongoing debate regarding gender identity is recent orders within the U.S. Pacific Air Forces for leaders to stop using gender, age, or race pronouns in written format, claiming such a move would improve “lethality.”

    “We must embrace, promote and unleash the potential of diversity and inclusion,” according to an email sent out in May to commanders in Guam, a U.S. territory just hours away from the South China Sea.

    Speakers Take Aim at Media Mischaracterising AUKUS

    Hastie also joined a panel discussion moderated by senior fellow Peter Rough, along with Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair of the Hudson Institute, and Bryan Clark, former submariner and expert in naval operations.

    Cronin took aim at Australian media for focusing too much on issues like capability gaps, money wastage, “alienating options” for dealing with China, and mischaracterising the deal as one where Australia was becoming an “adjunct to the U.S. Navy.”

    While there is some validity to these points … it completely misses the fact that America is taking a big gamble on Australia. We’re not talking about just any technology transfer … we’re talking not just about nuclear propulsion, but about technology writ large,” he said.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 23:00

  • 'Sharing' Economy Continues To Spread: Americans With STDs Jump 26% To Seven-Decade Highs
    ‘Sharing’ Economy Continues To Spread: Americans With STDs Jump 26% To Seven-Decade Highs

    During President Biden’s first year in office, cases of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in the U.S. increased at an alarming rate not seen in nearly seven decades. 

    Politico, quoting preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Syphilis rates in 2021 jumped a shocking 26% — or 171,000 new infections — the most significant annual increase since former President Harry Truman was in the White House in 1953. 

    The CDC data found total infections in 2021 surpassed 2020 figures, increasing from 2.4 to 2.5 million.

    Chlamydia, which dropped in 2020, had increased 3% last year. Gonorrhea rose 2.8%, accounting for 700,000 infections in 2021. 

    Health officials are voicing serious concern over the latest explosion in STDs. We’ve pointed out that the infections trend has been upward sloping over the last four years: 

    Numerous factors are being blamed for the increase, notably the virus pandemic, funding cuts for local health departments, opioid and methamphetamine crisis (where people share needles), and even perhaps decreases in condom usage among young people in a post-Covid era. 

    Instead, Covid’s disruption exacerbated problems brought about by years of budget cuts to STD programs and the pervasive stigmatization of poor people of color and LGBTQ communities where infection rates tend to be higher, according to health experts and government officials. –Politico

    Politico pointed out that “preventing new HIV infections, which are tracked separately, slowed during the pandemic, and some parts of the country including San Francisco are even seeing HIV rates increase for the first time in nearly a decade.”

    “Officials warn that without significantly more funding, the U.S. may not reach its goal of ending the spread of the virus by 2030,” Politico continued. 

    CDC warned STD infection trend shows “no signs of slowing” — and comes amid a brave new world where the Great Reset Initiative pushed by the World Economic Forum aims to rebuild economies with twenty-first-century socialism. This means most people ‘will own nothing and will be happy’. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 22:40

  • Nearly 50 Members Of Congress Call On Pentagon To End Military Vaccine Mandate
    Nearly 50 Members Of Congress Call On Pentagon To End Military Vaccine Mandate

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

    Nearly 50 Republican lawmakers, led by Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), have called on the Department of Defense (DOD) to withdraw its COVID-19 vaccine mandate for military members, citing concerns over the mandate’s impact on the readiness of the U.S. Armed Forces.

    In a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin dated Sept. 15 (pdf), lawmakers, including Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), expressed their “grave concerns” over the impact of the mandate, particularly with regard to the U.S. Army.

    “As a result of your mandate, eight percent of the Army’s approximately 1 million soldiers face expulsion, Army recruiters cannot meet their FY22 target, and the Army has cut its projected FY23 end strength by 12,000 soldiers,” they wrote.

    Referring to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, lawmakers noted that the U.S. military currently faces “a self-imposed readiness crisis.”

    Citing “sparse” data from the Department of Army, they noted that “at least 40,000 National Guardsmen, 20,000 Army Reservists, and at least 15,000 Active Army Soldiers” have not yet received a COVID-19 shot and subsequently face being discharged from service.

    “The Department of Defense’s own Covid response page indicates that approximately 900,000 soldiers are fully vaccinated out of the 1 million soldiers in the Army, Army Reserve, and Army National Guard,” they wrote.

    Lawmakers pointed to testimony delivered in July by Vice Chief of Staff of the Army, Gen. Joseph Martin, before the House Armed Services Committee. During that testimony, Martin stated that “less than 20,000” people were facing discharge for refusing to take the COVID-19 vaccine, much less than the initial figures that officials had provided.

    ‘Inquiries Remain Unanswered’

    However, lawmakers in their letter to the DOD noted that the Army has not published official data pertaining to the number of unvaccinated service members in months.

    “The opaqueness of the Department continues to frustrate Members of Congress attempting to perform oversight of the Executive Branch,” they wrote, noting that their “repeated inquiries remain unanswered.”

    Republicans also pointed to the “thousands of servicemembers” that “have been left in limbo” while they await a formal judgment regarding their medical exemptions to the vaccine.

    “Some have waited for nearly a year to learn if they will be forcibly discharged for their sincerely held religious beliefs or medical concerns,” lawmakers wrote.

    “Furthermore, according to current Army policy, even those few soldiers who receive permanent exemptions will be treated as second-class soldiers for the rest of their careers—each of them requires approval from the Undersecretary of the Army to travel, change assignments, or even attend training courses away from their home station,” they wrote.

    According to U.S Army fragmentary orders published by Fox News, the Army has barred unvaccinated soldiers from official travel unless they receive the undersecretary’s approval.

    “The Department has abused the trust and good faith of loyal servicemembers by handling vaccine exemptions in a sluggish and disingenuous manner,” lawmakers said.

    They then questioned who would replace the roughly 75,000 soldiers if they were to be discharged from the Army. Martin said in July that if a shortfall in Army troop size were to persist, it could have an impact on readiness.

    A military member prepares a COVID-19 vaccine in Fort Knox, Ky., on Sept. 9, 2021. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images)

    Service Member Shortfall

    Citing Army Secretary Christine Wormuth’s interview with NBC News earlier this year in which she noted that the Army has only met 52 percent of its recruiting goal for the fiscal year 2022, they asked, “How will it recruit another 75,000 troops beyond its annual target to account for vaccine-related discharges?”

    In that same interview, Wormuth said she believes the Army would end up roughly 12,000 to 15,000 recruits short this year.

    “The data is now clear. The Department of Defense’s Covid vaccine mandate is deleterious to readiness and the military’s ability to fight and win wars,” lawmakers concluded.

    “The vaccine provides negligible benefit to the young, fit members of our Armed Forces, and the mandate’s imposition is clearly affecting the Department’s ability to sustain combat formations and recruit future talent.”

    “We urge you to immediately revoke your Covid-19 vaccine mandate for all servicemembers, civilian personnel, and contractors and re-instate those who have already been discharged.”

    As of July 1, 2022, under the Biden administration’s vaccine mandate, members of the Army National Guard and U.S. Army Reserve who are not vaccinated and do not have an approved exemption are unable to participate in federally funded drills and training and will not receive pay or retirement credit.

    Biden’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate has been in place across the entire military since last year and the White House has defended the move, stating that mass vaccination will help stem the spread of the virus.

    The Epoch Times has contacted the Department of Defense for comment.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 22:20

  • Mapping The Countries With The Highest Risk Of Flooding
    Mapping The Countries With The Highest Risk Of Flooding

    Devastating floods across Pakistan this summer have resulted in more than 1,400 lives lost and one-third of the country being under water.

    This raises the question: which nations and their populations are the most vulnerable to the risk of flooding around the world?

    Using data from a recent study published in Nature, Visual Capitalist’s Niccolo Conte and Christina Kostandi created this graphic that maps flood risk around the world, highlighting the 1.81 billion people directly exposed to 1-in-100 year floods. The methodology takes into account potential risks from both inland and coastal flooding.

    Asian Countries Most at Risk from Rising Water Levels

    Not surprisingly, countries with considerable coastlines, river systems, and flatlands find themselves with high percentages of their population at risk.

    The Netherlands and Bangladesh are the only two nations in the world to have more than half of their population at risk due to flooding, at 59% and 58%, respectively. Vietnam (46%), Egypt (41%), and Myanmar (40%) round out the rest of the top five nations.

    Besides the Netherlands, only two other European nations are in the top 20 nations by percentage of population at risk, Austria (18th at 29%) and Albania (20th at 28%).

    The Southeast Asia region alone makes up more than two-thirds of the global population exposed to flooding risk at 1.24 billion people.

    China and India account for 395 million and 390 million people, respectively, with both nations at the top in terms of the absolute number of people at risk of rising water levels. The rest of the top five countries by total population at risk are Bangladesh (94 million people at risk), Indonesia (76 million people at risk), and Pakistan (72 million people at risk).

    How Flooding is Already Affecting Countries Like Pakistan

    While forecasted climate and natural disasters can often take years to manifest, flooding affected more than 100 million people in 2021. Recent summer floods in Pakistan have continued the trend in 2022.

    With 31% of its population (72 million people) at risk of flooding, Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to floods.

    In 2010, floods in Pakistan were estimated to have affected more than 18 million people. The recent floods, which started in June, are estimated to have affected more than 33 million people as more than one-third of the country is submerged underwater.

    The Cost of Floods Today and in the Future

    Although the rising human toll is by far the biggest concern that floods present, they also bring with them massive economic costs. Last year, droughts, floods, and storms caused economic losses totaling $224.2 billion worldwide, nearly doubling the 2001-2020 annual average of $117.8 billion.

    A recent report forecasted that water risk (caused by droughts, floods, and storms) could eat up $5.6 trillion of global GDP by 2050, with floods projected to account for 36% of these direct losses.

    As both human and economic losses caused by floods continue to mount, nations around the world will need to focus on preventative infrastructure and restorative solutions for ecosystems and communities already affected and most at risk of flooding.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 22:00

  • Pressure On China To Devalue Yuan Becoming More Acute
    Pressure On China To Devalue Yuan Becoming More Acute

    By Simon White, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

    China’s vulnerability to a heavy private-debt load and the collapsing real-estate market increase the risk that the PBOC allows the yuan to weaken further, or that the fixed exchange-rate system with the dollar is dropped altogether.

    The dollar is rallying again today, putting pressure on currencies around the world. Of significance, the yuan has breached the widely-watched level of 7 for the first time since 2020.

    China has started to push back more heavily against the weakening, with the official yuan fix moving from about 400 pips lower than USD/CNY at last week to 845 pips today.

    The PBoC also withdrew yuan liquidity from the market Thursday, as well as last week announcing a reduction in the FX reserve ratio for banks due to take effect today.

    But it is getting harder for China to keep gravity at bay for the yuan.

    China’s growth model of subsidizing the export-facing state-owned enterprise sector by repressing the household one – a policy reinforced by the pandemic – means that China’s ballooning trade surplus is a sign of weakness, not strength.

    In a nominally closed capital-account country, a proxy for capital outflow is given by the difference between FX reserves and the trade surplus. If such a vast surplus was good for growth, we would expect to see FX reserves and deposits rise (even taking account of dollar-devaluation effects to existing reserves).

    Instead, both are falling, highlighting that the trade surpluses are triggering a growth slowdown and net capital flight.

    This puts pressure on the yuan.

    Some of the weakening has been sanctioned by the Chinese authorities, easing some of the negative growth impact from capital outflow. But it is clear they are now trying to push back against the yuan’s decline.

    The problem is compounded by the collapse in the real-estate sector. The debt of real-estate companies is down over 60% from last year’s peak. Overall, China has seen a rapid rise in debt over the last ten years, with the cost of servicing it increasing to over 20%, a level that has previously triggered debt crises in other countries.

    Also, while the yuan has weakened mostly against the dollar, it has actually strengthened against two of China’s largest trade competitors, Japan and Korea. We may therefore soon see the yuan’s weakness becoming more broad-based, and it also falling against the CFETS FX basket, which has held remarkable steady so far.

    To try to avoid a debt-triggered crisis, one lever China can pull is allowing the yuan to weaken further, or even dropping the fixed exchange-rate altogether.

    It is one way to stave off the greater evil of widespread unemployment and civil unrest, dangers China could well face if growth continues to fall.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 21:40

  • US Army's Recruiting Crisis Worsens As Test Scores Drop, Disqualifications Rates Surge
    US Army’s Recruiting Crisis Worsens As Test Scores Drop, Disqualifications Rates Surge

    The US Army has a major recruiting problem and can’t find enough young people who meet the basic requirements to enlist, according to Army Times

    Lt. Gen. Maria Gervais, second in command for Army Training and Doctrine Command, sounded off Thursday about the troubling developments. She highlighted disqualification rates for potential recruits jumped from 30-40% (pre-Covid) to a whopping 70% this year due to obesity, low test scores, and/or drug use.

    Gervais pointed out the service has experienced a “nosedive” in recruits since July 2021. She explained Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) scores were 10% lower during the virus pandemic in 2020-21. That figure has since increased to 13% for the most recent high school graduating class. 

    Perhaps America’s youth was dumbed down during Covid with at-home schooling via daily video conferences. The latest Education Department data confirm reading and math scores plummeted. Maybe those kids were playing too many video games or trading ‘meme stocks’ or posting useless videos on TikTok during the pandemic instead of opening a book and learning something valuable. 

    Besides failing to meet academic standards, obesity was another driver of higher disqualification rates. Also, increasing drug use among youngsters didn’t help. 

    The challenges of today’s youth put combat preparedness in question as liberal war hawks are determined to spark World War III in Ukraine and or in the Taiwan Strait. 

    Gen. Joseph Martin, vice chief of staff for the Army, warned in July that the recruitment goal for 2022 could be slashed by a quarter. He said the total size of the Army (including active and reserve components) will decrease by 10,000 troops this year and between 14,000 and 21,000 in 2023. 

    Perhaps lowering the standards to meet targets is a question the service should ponder. Even though the quality is more important than quantity, in tumultuous periods like today, where the world is shifting from a unipolar world to a multipolar world, conflicts tend to ignite — and the US — one who has overseen the unipolar world for decades — will fight ‘tooth and nail’ to maintain the status quo. 

    At least the youth have one thing going for them: obsession with violent video games has desensitized an entire generation to all sorts of violence where war might not be a big shock. 

    Remember, the service’s recruitment crisis has been an ongoing issue but has worsened in the last few years. We pointed out it’s “another signal of declining support for the federal government and its institutions.” 

    Maybe because the military has gotten too ‘woke‘? You know the saying: “go woke, go broke” — this can also happen to empires… 

    The shrinking pool of eligible youth due to obesity, low test scores, or drug use should be a national security threat to US health and security. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 21:20

  • Violence In California Reaches "Epidemic" Levels As Our Society Rapidly Deteriorates All Around Us
    Violence In California Reaches “Epidemic” Levels As Our Society Rapidly Deteriorates All Around Us

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

    I can’t understand why anyone would still want to live in California.  Yes, there are lots of high paying jobs and the weather is very nice, but crime is completely and utterly out of control.  As you will see below, a new report that has just been issued is warning that violence in the state has now reached “epidemic” levels.  The police are doing what they can to try to contain the violence, but at this point they are vastly outnumbered by the predators.  Sadly, this is the end result of literally decades of cultural rot, and what is happening in California is going to happen to the rest of the nation if we do not take urgent action to turn things around.

    Originally, I was going to write about something else today.  Tens of thousands of rail and port workers were threatening to go on strike, and this could definitely cause some substantial economic disruptions…

    America is bracing for chaos as tens of thousands of railway, port, and hospital workers look set to strike over the winter – plunging the country into further disruption.

    As many as 60,000 railway workers, 15,000 nurses, and 22,000 West Coast port workers are plotting mass walkouts as they seek better working conditions.

    Several US freight railroads said they were preparing for widespread strike and service interruptions Friday, a deadline set by two holdout labor groups in protracted talks with railroad carriers about better benefits.

    But even though these strikes could cause severe short-term problems, they will eventually be resolved.

    [ZH: And were resolved right before the strike was set to take place]

    So in the greater scheme of things, they really aren’t a major concern.

    On the other hand, our cultural decay is a massive ongoing crisis that isn’t going to go away.

    As I mentioned earlier, a brand new report that was just released is warning that violence in the state of California has risen to “epidemic” levels

    The Golden State is losing its luster. A troubling new report labels physical and sexual violence in pandemic-era California a statewide “epidemic.” To put it simply, violence is on an alarming rise.

    According to the new annual report from the California Study on Violence Experiences across the Lifespan (CalVEX), violence statistics have seen a significant increase since COVID-19 emerged. The report, conducted by scientists at the University of California San Diego School of Medicine, reports more than one in six Californians (18%) experienced either physical or sexual violence in just the past year.

    If you live in one of the biggest cities in California, this isn’t news to you.

    Once upon a time, the state was a place of great beauty and great tranquility, but now it has been transformed into a crime-infested hellhole.

    I was particularly alarmed by the numbers on sexual violence in this new report

    While more than 1.5 million adults in California admit to committing acts of sexual violence in the past year, men were more than two times as likely as women to report that they perpetrated sexual violence and intimate partner violence.

    Women also showed greater mental health impacts and life disruptions due to violent experiences, with 82 percent of women reporting anxiety or depression as a result of physically aggressive, coercive or forced sexual behavior.

    Of course much of this violence is being fueled by illegal mind-altering drugs.

    Some of these drugs are so immensely powerful that they literally put people into catatonic states for an extended period of time…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    I will never understand why people would willingly do that to themselves.

    Today, we are facing the biggest drug crisis that we have ever seen in American history, and addicts will often do whatever it takes to get another fix.

    Sadly, this is one of the factors that is contributing to skyrocketing rates of shoplifting all over the nation

    We are all painfully aware of the huge rise in shoplifting and even violent robberies of stores. We watch the videos of thugs brazenly raiding stores, and read about the organized crime rings that have sprung up to profit from the trend. Shoplifting has become a big, if criminal business. Chances are that if you use eBay to purchase a wide range of products at reduced prices you have unwittingly purchased stolen goods. No good way for eBay to stop the practice.

    One homeless man that originally came from Alabama recently admitted that he regularly shoplifts in order to fund his heroin use…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    There have been homeless addicts in the streets of San Francisco for years, but now we have reached a point where they are seemingly everywhere.

    The following is what one reporter witnessed during a recent journey through the city…

    I saw complete hopelessness in the eyes of haunted souls dragging themselves down the street looking for their next fix.

    I saw men and women of all ages hunched over on the sidewalks with open wounds all over their bodies.

    I saw the filthy tent cities stinking with human excrement and strewn with needles and pipes.

    I saw children staring in horror at people dying right in front of them.

    At one time, such activity was limited to the bad portions of the city.

    But now addicts that have been drugged out of their minds are pulling down their pants and crapping in the streets right in front of some of the most expensive real estate in San Francisco.

    This has made the wealthy people really angry, and Mayor Breed says that she is finally going to “get serious” about this crisis.

    Of course “getting serious” doesn’t mean arresting a bunch of people and throwing them into prison.

    That just wouldn’t be very “progressive”.

    Instead, authorities in San Francisco are getting ready to launch a “soft-touch” program that will seek to “interrupt” drug trafficking…

    City supervisors released a resolution for a vague ‘soft-touch’ initiative called ‘San Francisco Recovers.’

    And here’s the catch, and it’s a doozy: the plan is being touted as, ‘a way that nobody’s going to jail but we’re doing an effective job of interrupting the drug market and drug scenes.’

    Is this a sick joke?

    Yes, it certainly sounds like a sick joke to me.

    Good luck with all that.

    If major cities such as San Francisco actually want to have a chance of turning things around, they need to send the police out to round up all the drug dealers.

    Unfortunately, police forces in many of our biggest cities are rapidly getting smaller.

    In fact, a whopping 122 officers have left the Seattle Police Department in 2022 alone…

    The liberal city of Seattle is losing police officers amid a major spike in crime, 770 KTTH reported.

    “We’re screwed,” former King County Sheriff John Urqhart said, according to 770 KTTH.

    In total, 122 officers have left the Seattle Police Department in 2022, including six that left in August, 770 KTTH reported, citing a police source. Since the city council voted to defund the police department in 2020, nearly 500 police officers have left the force.

    I wouldn’t want to be a police officer in a major west coast city at this point either.

    They are underpaid, the politicians treat them with tremendous disdain, and they are often hindered by absolutely ridiculous regulations which keep them from doing their jobs effectively.

    We like to think that we are so “advanced”, but the truth is that if you compare video footage from major cities on the west coast from decades ago to video footage from today there is absolutely no comparison.

    Our society is melting down right in front of our eyes, and if we stay on the path that we are currently on there is no future for our country.

    But the politicians insist that people like me have it all wrong.

    They continue to tell us that things are better than ever and that a glorious future for our nation is dead ahead.

    You can believe that if you want, but the truth of what is really happening to our society is on display for the whole world to see.

    America is dying, and we are quickly running out of time to turn things around.

    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 21:00

  • India Overtakes UK To Become Fifth Biggest Economy
    India Overtakes UK To Become Fifth Biggest Economy

    Just a decade ago, Indian GDP was the eleventh largest in the world.

    Now, as Statista’s Martin Armstrong shows in the chart below, with 7 percent growth forecast for 2022, India’s economy has overtaken the United Kingdom’s in terms of size, making it the fifth biggest.

    That’s according to the latest figures from the International Monetary Fund.

    Infographic: India Overtakes UK to Become Fifth Biggest Economy | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    India’s growth is accompanied by a period of rapid inflation in the UK, creating a cost of living crisis and the risk of a recession which the Bank of England predicts could last into 2024.

    This situation, coupled with a turbulent political period and the continued hangover of Brexit, led to Indian output overtaking that of the UK in the final quarter of 2021, with the first of 2022 offering no change in the ranking.

    Looking ahead, the IMF forecasts this to become the new status quo, with India expected to leap further ahead of the UK up to 2027 – making India the fourth largest economy by that time, too, and leaving the UK behind in sixth.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 20:40

  • Mike Pompeo Tells Chicago Crowd He's Prepping For 2024 Run
    Mike Pompeo Tells Chicago Crowd He’s Prepping For 2024 Run

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told a crowd in Illinois this week that he is preparing to run for president during the 2024 elections.

    “We’ve got a team in Iowa, a team in New Hampshire and South Carolina. And that’s not random. We are doing the things one would do to get ready,” Pompeo told 1,100 people during a Chicago event on Tuesday, according to a Politico reporter.

    “Unlike others, if I go down an escalator, no one will notice,” Pompeo joked, referring to former President Donald Trump’s announcement in 2015 that he was running.

    Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference at The Rosen Shingle Creek in Orlando, Florida, on Feb. 25, 2022. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    The Epoch Times has contacted Pompeo’s Champion American Values PAC for comment.

    We are trying to figure out if that is the next place for us to serve,” he also said during the event. “If we conclude it is, we’ll go make the case to the American people of why that is. And in the end, the American people, I pray, will make a good decision about who’s going to be their next leader.”

    Pompeo, a former secretary of state and director of the CIA under Trump, made the comments while speaking at the Navy SEAL Foundation Midwest Evening of Tribute on Tuesday evening.

    It’s been no secret that Pompeo may be planning to run for president in 2024. In August, the former GOP congressman said he would run for the nation’s highest office “no matter who decides to get in,” including his former boss.

    “We’re going to make our decision based on if we think this is the right place for us to serve,” Pompeo said at a Faith and Freedom barbeque in late August. “If I come to believe I ought to become president, that I have something to offer the American people, I will run no matter who all decides to get in and who else decides not to get in the race.”

    Pompeo has not made an official announcement on whether he will run. Trump and other top Republican candidates similarly have not said whether they will run, although Trump has strongly hinted that he would in several public speaking engagements.

    In a July interview with The Hill, Trump indicated that it’s not a question of whether he will run but rather a question of when he’ll make the announcement. That came weeks before the FBI raided the former president’s Mar-a-Lago on Aug. 8, which Pompeo condemned last month.

    I would say my big decision will be whether I go before or after,” he said. “You understand what that means?”

    Trump also indicated that the announcement would come around the 2022 midterm elections. “Do I go before or after? That will be my big decision,” he said.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 20:20

  • One Year Of Global Waste Visualized
    One Year Of Global Waste Visualized

    Waste generation is expected to jump to 3.4 billion tonnes over the next 30 years, compared to 2.2 billion in 2019.

    This is due to a number of factors, such as population growth, urbanization, and economic growth.

    As Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti details below, and in this graphic by Northstar Clean Technologies, the impact of waste generation varies worldwide and explains how it can be reduced.

    The Growing Pile of Global Waste

    The United States is the world’s most wasteful country, with each American producing a whopping 809 kg (1780 lbs) of waste every year.

    Approximately half of the country’s yearly waste will meet its fate in one of the more than 2,000 active landfills across the nation. The country also has the largest landfill in the world, Apex, located in Clark County, Nevada.

    The United States is followed by other industrialized countries like Denmark, New Zealand, Canada, and Switzerland based on average annual per capita municipal waste generation.

    Compared to those in developed nations, residents in developing countries are more severely impacted by unsustainably managed waste. In low-income countries, over 90% of waste is often disposed of in unregulated dumps or openly burned, according to the World Bank.

    In this scenario, the need for authorities to provide adequate waste treatment has become ever more important. However, less than 20% of waste is recycled each year, with huge quantities still sent to landfill sites.

    Repurposing Waste

    One of the major sources of waste is the construction industry. Every year, around 12 million tons of used asphalt shingles are dumped into landfills across North America.

    Similar to roads, asphalt shingles have oil as the primary component, which is especially harmful to the environment.

    However, using technology, the primary components in shingles can be repurposed into liquid asphalt, aggregates, and fiber for use in road construction, embankments, and new shingles.

    Providing the construction industry with clean, sustainable processing solutions is also a big business opportunity. Canada alone is a $1.3 billion market for recovering and reprocessing shingles.

    Even though 100% zero waste may sound difficult to achieve in the near future, a zero waste approach is essential to reduce our impact on the environment.

    Northstar Clean Technologies’ mission is to be the leader in the recovery and reprocessing of asphalt shingles in North America.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 20:00

  • Fauci Says He's Handed Over Documents For Big Tech Censorship Lawsuit
    Fauci Says He’s Handed Over Documents For Big Tech Censorship Lawsuit

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sept. 14 that he and his staff members have handed over all responsive documents to a lawsuit alleging the U.S. government colluded with Big Tech to censor social media users.

    “I have handed and my staff have handed over every document that the Department of Justice has asked for, and it’s up to them to make it available, but I have held nothing back from anything that I was asked to provide,” Fauci said during a Senate hearing in Washington.

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies during a Senate hearing in Washington on Sept. 14, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

    The attorneys general of Missouri and Louisiana filed the suit in May, and the first tranche of discovery returned evidence of collusion, including emails between the federal officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the White House and officials at Facebook parent company Meta, Google, and Twitter.

    Absent from the release were any messages from Fauci and just a few involving officials at the agency he directs, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

    That’s because government lawyers asserted most of Fauci’s communications should be shielded. U.S. District Judge Terry Doughty, the Trump appointee overseeing the case, disagreed.

    “First, the requested information is obviously very relevant to Plaintiffs’ claims. Dr. Fauci’s communications would be relevant to Plaintiffs’ allegations in reference to alleged suppression of speech relating to the lab-leak theory of COVID-19’s origin, and to alleged suppression of speech about the efficiency of masks and COVID-19 lockdowns,” Doughty said.

    The judge ordered the government on Sept. 6 to produce the requested Fauci records to plaintiffs within 21 days.

    Any communications that are made in that regard as far as I’m concerned are an open book and available,” Fauci said during the Senate hearing.

    The Department of Justice and NIAID did not return requests for comment.

    Personal Cell Phone

    Fauci has acknowledged that he was in contact with Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO of Facebook.

    Several emails between them sent in 2020 were released in 2021 through a Freedom of Information Act response.

    Zuckerberg asked whether he could provide resources to “potentially accelerate” the COVID-19 vaccines, which were still in development at that time. Fauci thanked him and said that “I believe we will be OK.”

    There was one communication or two perhaps with Mark Zuckerberg in which he emailed me and wanted to know if there was anything he could do,” Fauci said under questioning by Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) in July 2021. “It was mostly propagating a public health message, it had nothing to do with the origins of the virus at all.”

    Braun asked if Fauci consults with social media companies frequently, and Fauci said no. Fauci also said he was “not sure” whether he had Zuckerberg’s cell phone number.

    The discovery produced so far in the lawsuit shows that Zuckerberg provided Fauci with the number, according to a joint statement by plaintiffs and defendants.

    “And on August 28, 2022, Meta disclosed Dr. Fauci in its list of 32 federal officials who may have communicated with Meta about content modulation on Facebook and Instagram,” they said. Meta is the parent company of Facebook and Instagram.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 19:40

  • China Taps 'Strategic Pork Reserves' In Largest Monthly Release Yet
    China Taps ‘Strategic Pork Reserves’ In Largest Monthly Release Yet

    China, the world’s top consumer and pork producer, tapped its ‘strategic pork reserves’ to dump the largest amount of supplies ever into the marketplace in one month to cool prices. 

    statement from the country’s economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), indicates that the first batch of pork reserves flooded regional markets on Sept. 9. The second batch is slated for Sept. 18.

    “According to the amount already put in and the plan for later release, it is expected that the country and localities will put a total of about 200,000 tons of pork reserves in September, and the amount put in a single month will reach the highest level in history,” NDRC said in a statement

    The move comes as consumer prices hit a two-year high in July with a 2.7% increase YoY, due mainly to a rebound in pork prices.

    Wholesale pork prices have more than doubled since March. The good news is prices are still well below prices during the pig ebola days of 2019-20. 

    NDRC said the pork reserves are well supplied and have more than enough to maintain an orderly market, adding it will monitor market changes if more releases are needed. 

    The agency also asked farmers to increase the number of live pigs sold at markets.  

    A new survey via research firm Oliver Wyman found that Chinese people are beginning to complain about inflation as pork prices rise. However, inflation is not nearly anywhere compared to the US and the rest of the world. 

    The only thing President Xi Jinping can’t afford is discontent among the population due to rising prices … thus Beijing will continue dumping pork supplies to tame prices. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 19:20

  • US Announces Fund To Benefit Afghan Economy – Using Stolen Afghan Bank Reserves
    US Announces Fund To Benefit Afghan Economy – Using Stolen Afghan Bank Reserves

    Authored by Julia Conley via Common Dreams,

    Rights organizations on Thursday responded to a new Biden administration plan to use $3.5 billion in U.S.-held Afghan funds to “help mitigate the economic challenges” facing the people of Afghanistan by saying the proposal was “better than keeping that money locked away in a U.S. vault” but must only be the first step in returning $7 billion in stolen money to Afghanistan.

    Following months of outcry from economists, peace groups, and Afghan rights campaigners, the U.S. Treasury Department said Wednesday that it is coordinating with international partners, including the Swiss government, to establish what it called the “Afghan Fund.”

    The fund will include “$3.5 billion of Afghan central bank reserves to be used for the benefit of the people of Afghanistan while keeping them out of the hands of the Taliban and other malign actors,” the Treasury Department said, and will make “targeted disbursements of that $3.5 billion to help provide greater stability to the Afghan economy.”

    Image via DW/picture alliance

    The Afghan economic justice group Unfreeze Afghanistan said that “the freezing of this money has devastated Afghanistan’s economy and contributed to one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world,”

    “Over the past year, the banks have been so starved for cash that Afghans have been unable to withdraw their own money for paying basic household expenses or running their businesses,” said the group. “We believe the Afghan people would ultimately be best assisted if these funds are quickly made available for Central Bank functions.”

    The money being placed in the Afghan Fund represents half of the Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB) reserves, stored in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which were seized by the U.S. earlier this year even as Afghanistan faced a worsening hunger crisis.

    The Biden administration said earlier this year that the other $3.5 billion would be retained to potentially be claimed by the families of victims of the September 11, 2001 attacks to settle legal judgments against the Taliban—a proposal that several families objected to, saying the money belonged to the people of Afghanistan.

    Last month, a U.S. federal judge concluded that the families should not be permitted to claim the funds. On Wednesday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said the U.S. is taking an “important, concrete step forward in ensuring that additional resources can be brought to bear to reduce suffering and improve economic stability for the people of Afghanistan while continuing to hold the Taliban accountable.”

    The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) denounced the Biden administration’s statement as “pure spin,” noting that the $3.5 billion in Afghan funds is not the United States’ money to disburse. “The Afghan Fund is funded by Afghanistan, and the U.S. is only delivering unprecedented suffering,” said the CEPR.

    Since the U.S. has withheld the $7 billion from the DAB, Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis has steadily grown more dire, with six million people facing famine and an estimated three million children suffering from acute malnourishment. September 11th Families for Peaceful Tomorrows expressed gratitude that the Afghan economy will receive a boost through the Afghan Fund, and called on the Biden administration to return the full $7 billion it confiscated.

    Unfreeze Afghanistan said that now that the U.S. has committed to place $3.5 billion in the fund, the reserves must be sent to the DAB as quickly as possible to benefit the Afghan people. The DAB has already agreed to independent monitoring of its funds, said Unfreeze Afghanistan, adding that the international community must now “assist DAB in getting the technical capacity needed to implement” anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism funding controls.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “We urge the U.S. government, the Afghan Fund, and DAB to work closely together to ensure that the money from the Afghan Fund is channeled to the Afghan central bank as soon as possible,” said the group, “with the goal of shoring up the nation’s economy and alleviating the suffering of the Afghan people.”

    U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, added the U.S. must “follow this action by reassuring banks and governments worldwide that engage with Afghanistan’s central bank to provide liquidity will not face sanctions.”

    Afghanistan’s current crisis “has been intensified by the Western freeze of Afghanistan’s reserve assets held abroad—a policy that has contributed to an economic depression, mass hunger, and displacement,” said Jayapal. “While this fund has the potential to unlock $3.5 billion of the $7 billion in U.S. possession—which should be pursued swiftly—we believe the full $7 billion that rightfully belongs to the Afghan people should be restored to the Central Bank.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 19:00

  • New York City Ride-Hailing Still Feeling Pandemic Crunch
    New York City Ride-Hailing Still Feeling Pandemic Crunch

    According to reports from Bloomberg and W42ST, Uber has been rolling out its collaboration with New York City taxis which the groups had agreed on back in March.

    Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports that under the agreement, cabs can be ordered using the Uber app as long as drivers opt in. Taxis will be offered at the same pre-calculated fares usual for Ubers and will be priced at the level of UberX.

    The unlikely alliance between the two actors long considered mortal enemies was first announced for New York City, but has since been expanded to Brussels and a nationwide Italian cab company as well as providers in Spain, Greece, Germany and Austria. Yet, the New York deal remains most remarkable as Uber has been relegated to licensed taxis business in European countries anyways. So how did it come about in such a highly competitive and lucrative market for taxis and ride-shares like New York City?

    According to March reports by The Wall Street Journal, Uber had been struggling with driver shortages amid the U.S. labor crunch, which led fare rises. A look at the development of average daily taxi and ride-hailing rides in New York City by the NYC Taxi and Limousine Commission aptly shows the struggles Uber as well as traditional taxi companies have been going through since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. The number of all rides in New York City plunged in early 2020 and neither taxis nor ride-hailing have fully recovered yet.

    Infographic: New York City Ride-Hailing Still Feeling Pandemic Crunch | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    While ride-share drivers more easily entered other industries when business was down in the worst times of the pandemic, taxi drivers and operators were more likely to stick around but are now acutely looking to make up for pandemic losses. This twist of events causes taxi drivers of all people to be exactly the personnel that Uber is looking for at the present moment. But Uber wouldn’t be Uber if it didn’t use the opportunity to go all out on a new strategy. As part of the course change, Uber’s global mobility chief Andrew Macdonald said in March that his company wanted to list every taxi in the world on its app by 2025.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 18:40

  • F-16 Pilot Died Because His Ejection Seat May Have Been Counterfeit
    F-16 Pilot Died Because His Ejection Seat May Have Been Counterfeit

    By Rachel Cohen of DefenseNews

    An Air Force investigation of a fatal fighter jet crash in 2020 quietly discovered that key components of the pilot’s ejection seat may have been counterfeit, Air Force Times has learned.

    First Lt. David Schmitz, an F-16 Fighting Falcon pilot at South Carolina’s Shaw Air Force Base, died June 30, 2020, when his ejection seat malfunctioned as he tried to escape from a failed nighttime landing. He was 32.

    The Air Force’s official inquiry in the months following the accident found that electronics inside the seat were scratched, unevenly sanded and showed otherwise shoddy craftsmanship.

    That raised red flags at the Air Force Research Laboratory, which called for a closer look to confirm whether the pieces were fraudulent, according to previously unreported slides provided to Air Force Times. It’s unclear whether that question was ever answered.

    While the Air Force suspected parts of the seat were counterfeit, it buried the information in a nonpublic section of its accident investigation report.

    Those details have come to light in a federal civil lawsuit filed by Schmitz’s widow, Valerie, who is suing three defense companies for negligence and misleading the Air Force about the safety of their products.

    “What the military does is inherently dangerous to begin with,” plaintiff attorney Jim Brauchle said Tuesday. “If you’re going to be engaging in that kind of activity, you want to be doing it with equipment that’s going to work.”

    The case in U.S. District Court in South Carolina targets F-16 manufacturer Lockheed Martin; Collins Aerospace, which builds the ACES II ejection seat installed on planes across the Air Force; and multiple business units of Teledyne Technologies, which makes the seat’s digital recovery sequencer.

    A sequencer is supposed to execute the steps of the ejection process when triggered in an emergency. Teledyne’s product is used in ejection seats on the F-15, F-16, F-22 and F-117 fighter jets, the A-10 attack plane, and B-1 and B-2 bombers around the world, according to its website.

    In Schmitz’s case, the ejection seat shot 130 feet into the air but failed to deploy its parachute. The airman hit the ground about seven seconds later while still strapped into his seat. He died on impact.

    The public version of the Air Force’s official accident report, released in November 2020, blamed the mishap on how Schmitz mishandled his descent into Shaw, as well as his supervisor’s suggestion to try a tail hook landing instead of telling Schmitz to eject earlier.

    Brauchle argues that glosses over the true cause of Schmitz’s death.

    “What ultimately killed him was the ejection seat failure,” he said. “It has only one job, and that’s to get the pilot out and to get out a [parachute].”

    The public accident report acknowledged that the sequencer malfunction contributed to Schmitz’s death, but did not offer further details.

    According to Air Force Research Laboratory slides dated Aug. 3, 2020, however, the service suspected that several transistors and microchips inside the sequencer were fake. Valerie’s legal team obtained the slides through a Freedom of Information Act request.

    Six transistors “had no conformal coating, were heavily gouged, had arcing scratch marks, were considered obsolete and were suspected of being counterfeit,” the complaint said. A capacitor that may have been damaged while it was handled was “partially dislodged.”

    Suppliers Atmel, Analog Devices and Siliconix provided the potentially counterfeit transistors, memory chips and accelerometer chip, according to the Air Force slides.

    The lab also found signs that Teledyne had destroyed evidence related to the case, the lawsuit said. Teledyne appeared to have replaced five microchips on the sequencer before sending it to the lab.

    “Teledyne had removed the printed wiring board from the DRS housing and had mounted the [board] to a ‘test fixture,’” the lawsuit said. “Teledyne had cut the leads on Channel #2′s parallel flash memory chip to facilitate chip removal.”

    Still, the lab said it wasn’t sure whether any of those parts caused the ejection seat to fail.

    “The parts … are strictly considered suspect at this time,” AFRL wrote in 2020. “Destructive analysis on these components, and analysis of components on other DRS boards, would be required to provide [a] higher level of confidence in whether or not they are counterfeit.”

    Plaintiffs hope to learn through the legal discovery process whether the components were proven fake. Counterfeiting has plagued the Pentagon’s supply chain for decades, and contractors are often unaware they are providing faulty materials.

    “The DoD is aware of this problem and is working to eliminate these components from supply chains,” the Air Force Research Laboratory said.

    Plaintiffs are also questioning whether the sequencers meet the Air Force’s standard of reliability. The Air Force Safety Center recommended in 2012 that the sequencer be replaced with more reliable hardware.

    Delays in that replacement effort led the Air Force to continue using sequencers longer than intended — including on Schmitz’s fighter jet.

    To keep an eye on potential degradation, contractors tested 60 sequencers in 2017 and 2018, the lawsuit said. Three were flagged for further evaluation. Teledyne found that two of the three units would have functioned properly in an ejection.

    Two years after that testing, the lawsuit claims, the companies hadn’t said whether the third unit passed muster. Still, the Air Force relied on the test data when it decided to continue using the sequencer that ended up in Schmitz’s F-16, the lawsuit said.

    Now, the plaintiffs are calling for a jury trial to recoup damages that could total several million dollars.

    The complaint accuses the contractors of wrongful death, accident liability, misrepresentation of the seat’s airworthiness, negligent supervision on Lockheed’s part, failure to warn the F-16 community and the public about the seat’s flaws, and violation of South Carolina law.

    Brauchle indicated a successful trial would offer Valerie some closure after losing her husband, her support network of military friends and the Air Force’s backing.

    “‘Here’s your [life insurance payment], here’s your outbrief, see you later,’” he said of the Air Force’s response. “Then she feels like they’re not giving her the whole truth, and that hurts even more.”

    Plaintiffs said the Air Force has stonewalled further requests for information due to a federal law enforcement probe. A recent response to the legal team cited a law that allows the government to withhold information that is “expected to interfere with enforcement proceedings.”

    “Any responsive documents to your request are not releasable to you at this time. … Your request has been closed,” wrote Roxanne Jensen, head of OSI’s FOIA branch, to Valerie’s legal team on June 22.

    Brauchle said the Air Force isn’t named as a defendant in the case because it is protected by the Feres Doctrine, which blocks active duty troops from suing the military for most damages incurred as a result of their service.

    Air Force spokesperson Rose Riley declined to comment on the claims made in the lawsuit.

    “We are not tracking this court case or any related investigations,” she said Tuesday.

    Multiple Air Force organizations did not respond to questions from Air Force Times, including the Air Force Research Laboratory; Air Force Office of Special Investigations; Air Combat Command, which oversees the F-16 fleet; or the Air Force Safety Center.

    Lockheed Martin spokesperson Leslie Farmer declined to answer questions on pending litigation. Other lawyers and representatives for Lockheed, Collins and Teledyne did not respond by press time Tuesday.

    The defendants are required to file a rebuttal in court by the end of September.

    Schmitz’s crash sparked renewed discussion in Washington about the measures needed to keep military pilots safe. Eighty-nine people have been killed in Air Force mishaps since 2012, according to the Air Force Safety Center. Six of those incidents occurred in the F-16.

    Reporting by Military.com last year illuminated concerns about whether the airman was pushed too hard to fly a training sortie with tasks he hadn’t yet tried at night because of an upcoming deployment, and about slow-moving ejection seat repairs.

    Schmitz’s seat hadn’t been fixed in three years because of a spare parts shortage. The Air Force put off addressing the problem despite knowing it could turn fatal, Military.com reported.

    After his death, Congress passed a law requiring the Air Force and Navy to provide updates on their ejection seats twice a year.

    Lawmakers want to know how many seats are installed at each active flying base, and how many have a waiver that clears them for use, despite needing repairs or replacement parts. They also ask for more transparency regarding who signed off on each waiver and when.

    The first report was due to Congress on Feb. 1.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 18:20

  • Tesla Is Now Requiring Powerwall Purchases For Every Solar Roof Install
    Tesla Is Now Requiring Powerwall Purchases For Every Solar Roof Install

    Well this is one way to move more product and keep the energy business narrative alive…

    Tesla is now reportedly requiring every solar roof install to be accompanied by a Powerwall, according to a new report from electrekThe required add-on is expected to significantly increase the cost of solar roof projects, the blog noted. 

    Electrek has learned from sources familiar with the matter that starting last week, Tesla is requiring every new solar roof project to include a Powerwall. The move will accelerate Powerwall deployment and add more prospective members to Tesla’s growing virtual power plants.

    The company’s solar roof business has already been slow to get off the ground – recall earlier this year we noted that the company had suspended installs of the roof due to “supply chain issues”. 

    The company is reportedly rescheduling now for the fourth quarter of this year, the report says. 

    As the blog notes, Tesla’s energy sales last quarter were just $866 million, compared to auto business of $14.6 billion. The forced add-on of Powerwalls will likely help bolster that number in future quarters. The blog noted that Tesla is ramping up production of Powerwalls to meet what will become newfound demand: 

    On top of ramping up deployment, Tesla has been working on new energy products and testing a new version of Solar Roof (v3.5), but the company is also looking to leverage its energy assets to provide grid services, like through its virtual power plants leveraging Powerwall installations. Last week, we reported that Tesla is finally getting more Powerwall availability with an impressive production ramp to 6,500 Powerwalls per week.

    After being part and parcel with the controversial Solar City bailout, Tesla’s solar roof tiles have long been at the center of controversy. Recall, back in December 2021 we reported about an ongoing SEC probe into the company’s solar panels. “The company was being probed by the Securities and Exchange commission over claims about defects on its solar panels made by a former-employee-turned whistleblower,” we wrote.

    In describing the allegations made by the whistleblower, Reuters wrote that “…the company failed to properly notify its shareholders and the public of fire risks associated with solar panel system defects over several years.”

    The SEC disclosed the probe after “a Freedom of Information Act request by Steven Henkes, a former Tesla field quality manager, who filed a whistleblower complaint on the solar systems in 2019 and asked the agency for information about the report,” Bloomberg wrote early Monday morning.

    “We have confirmed with Division of Enforcement staff that the investigation from which you seek records is still active and ongoing,” the SEC reportedly said in their response to Henkes.

    Henkes was “fired from Tesla in August 2020 and he sued Tesla claiming the dismissal was in retaliation for raising safety concerns,” the report says. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 18:00

  • Massachusetts Gov. Activates National Guard, Sends Martha's Vineyard Illegal Immigrants To Military Base
    Massachusetts Gov. Activates National Guard, Sends Martha’s Vineyard Illegal Immigrants To Military Base

    The Massachusetts governor’s office announced Friday that dozens of illegal immigrants who were transported to Martha’s Vineyard will be taken to a military base in Cape Cod, while some members of the National Guard will be activated.

    Venezuelan migrants stand outside St. Andrew’s Church in Edgartown, Massachusetts, U.S. September 14, 2022

    As Jack Phillips reports via The Epoch Times, the move comes as video footage and photos show the illegal aliens – of mostly Venezuelan descent – being transported on several buses from the St. Andrew’s Episcopal Church in Martha’s Vineyard, a Massachusetts island that is popular among the rich and powerful Democrats.

    Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker’s office announced Friday that it is going to mobilize 125 members of the National Guard and said that families and individuals will be housed at the Joint Base Cape Cod.

    “We are grateful to the providers, volunteers, and local officials that stepped up on Martha’s Vineyard over the past few days to provide immediate services to these individuals,” Baker said in a statement.

    “Our administration has been working across state government to develop a plan to ensure these individuals will have access to the services they need going forward, and Joint Base Cape Cod is well equipped to serve these needs.”

    The move by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, sparked outrage among left-wing commentators and pundits on social media.

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, claimed the Department of Justice should investigate DeSantis and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on human trafficking charges busing illegal immigrants.

    Hillary Clinton today agreed with MSNBC host Joe Scarborough that  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sending 50 undocumented migrants to Martha’s Vineyard is “literally human trafficking.”

    On the program, Scarborough repeated the common claim that this transportation qualifies as “human trafficking.” In fairness to Scarborough and Clinton, some law professors have echoed this view which is wholly at odds with not just the governing statutory provisions but controlling case law.

    Clinton, who is a lawyer, chimed in with the same dubious analysis:

    “I think, Joe, you have laid out the craziness of the time in which we’re living where some politicians would rather not only have an issue but exacerbate it to the extent of literally human trafficking, as you said.”

    So, as Jonathan Turley writes, MSNBC and these legal experts are telling the public that the consensual transport of migrants within the country constitutes human trafficking. While Turley notes there are good-faith reasons to oppose the transportation to migrants to the island, he points out in detail here that, as a legal matter, this is legally nonsense.

    But DeSantis argued Thursday that the Biden administration has failed in its duty to secure the border, while Abbott said that New York City, Chicago, and Washington D.C. are suitable locations for illegal immigrants due to their “sanctuary city” status. After the Martha’s Vineyard deployment, few Democrats made mention of the crisis that’s emerged along the U.S.–Mexico border or the White House’s immigration policies.

    ‘America Knows These Problems’

    Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) told Fox Business that he believes DeSantis’ decision to send two flights of illegal aliens to Martha’s Vineyard will help highlight problems with the southern border.

    “I will tell you, House Republicans have highlighted all the problems, and I think America knows these problems,” Gonzales, who represents Texas’s 23rd Congressional District, told the outlet Friday. “I say now it’s time for House Republicans to show action. We’re going to win back the majority here in November.”

    The White House, meanwhile, criticized DeSantis’s move to bus illegal aliens to Martha’s Vineyard and Abbott’s recent decision to send buses of illegal immigrants to Vice President Kamala Harris’s residence in Washington.

    “The children … deserve better than being left on the streets of D.C. or being left in Martha’s Vineyard,” press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.

    A report last month issued by the Federation for American Immigration Reform found that illegal immigration has skyrocketed under the Biden administration, with nearly 5 million people illegally entering the United States in the past year and a half. The group blamed the administration’s policies as well as its decision to reverse several Trump-era immigration rules.

    Roughly the equivalent of the entire population of Ireland has illegally entered the United States in the 18 months President Biden has been in office, with many being released into American communities,” the group wrote in August, attacking the White House for having no “willingness to enforce our laws.”

    Sheriffs from across the U.S. slammed the Democratic leaders of several sanctuary cities for complaining about receiving illegal migrants from the southern border, they told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

    “It’s an example of just the height of hypocrisy much like I’m seeing in my local community. We have people of that mind that think basically ‘anywhere but my backyard,’” Culpeper County, Virginia, Sheriff Scott H. Jenkins told the DCNF Friday.

    “It’s happening in every community,” Jenkins explained.

    “So, it’s time for America to wake up and realize it’s not a southwest border issue or a Texas, Arizona issue, it’s every county is a border county.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 17:40

  • Deloitte Sees Slowdown In Holiday Sales Growth As Inflation Grinch Hurts Households
    Deloitte Sees Slowdown In Holiday Sales Growth As Inflation Grinch Hurts Households

    Real wage growth has stayed deeply negative for more than a year, and consumer confidence is extremely low amid persistent high inflation that is wrecking household finances. The souring macro backdrop has also wiped out personal savings and racked up credit card debt as households struggle for survival amid soaring cost of living. 

    So what does this all mean for the upcoming holiday season in terms of retail sales? 

    To answer that question, Deloitte’s US economic forecaster Daniel Bachman explains retail sales are projected to slow from November through January. 

    Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending,” Bachman said in a report. 

    He “anticipated more spending on consumer services, such as restaurants, as the effects of the pandemic continue to wane.”

    Deloitte expects retail sales for November, December, and January to be 4% to 6% higher than the $1.39 trillion retail sales for the same period in 2021. 

    This compares to a 15.1% jump last year versus the same period in 2020, fueled by pent-up demand and stimmy checks, which caused consumers to spend like there was no tomorrow. There’s a noticeable slowdown in this year’s estimates as they’re more in line with pre-pandemic trends. 

    Bachman said the sharp pullback from last year “reflects the slowdown in the economy.” 

    Deloitte noted high inflation would push more consumers online in search of deals. The consulting firm forecasts e-commerce sales for the holiday season could be up 13% to 14% from 2021’s $231 billion — that’s a quicker growth rate than last year’s 8.4%.

    There’s no question that this year’s shopping season will be very challenging for retailers as consumers have changed spending behaviors from durable goods to experiences. 

    The latest evidence of this was a warning from Sweden’s Electrolux AB, the world’s second-largest home appliances manufacturer, which said demand for home appliances across the US has plunged.

    The good news for consumers is that retailers are stuck with a massive inventory glut of consumer goods. This suggests retailers will be bringing back holiday promotions more than ever to liquidate the excess — this will be bad news for company earnings.

    Inflation could be the Grinch that stole Christmas as households cut back on durable goods spending amid the ongoing inflationary environment. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/16/2022 – 17:20

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Today’s News 16th September 2022

  • Democrats Are Trying To Trump-Proof The Government In Case He Wins In 2024
    Democrats Are Trying To Trump-Proof The Government In Case He Wins In 2024

    Authored by Fred Lucas via 19fortyfive.com,

    Is this what a party does when it can’t keep voting on articles of impeachment?

    It’s been almost two years since former President Donald Trump’s defeat, yet House Democrats have managed to build an entire legislative agenda around Trump Derangements Syndrome.

    The House Oversight and Reform Committee alone has been firing away Trump-obsessed legislation, as Democratic sponsors for bills on the Census, civil service, and whistleblower protections all cite Trump as a key part of the justification for the proposals. The common line connecting all the bills is to curb executive power that should be in the hands of an elected president and enhance the power of unelected and largely unaccountable bureaucrats.

    Three of the bills that began in the oversight panel cleared the House Rules Committee this week to move to the House floor.

    Trump Derangement Syndrome is clearly real. To be clear, it’s not necessarily better or worse than Trump sycophancy. Americans–whether serving in public office or everyday working stiffs–should never base their life around idolatry of or seething hatred for one prominent leader. But, of course, that has happened with Trump. I suppose polarizing is a shorter way to put it, but that term seems so trite.

    Anyway, the anti-Trump side is presently being more ridiculous and pettier. If Trump sycophancy becomes a legislative agenda, I’ll reconsider that judgment.

    The silliness of it all is that Trump might be the only Republican–at least top tier Republican–who could lose to either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris in 2024. While that’s questionable, House Democrats are advancing bills through committee as if they think he’s a sure thing come January 2025 – or water down a second Trump term as much as possible by weakening presidential authority.

    Also, some of the bills are based on silly anti-Trump conspiracy theories. The bills would effectively politicize executive branch agencies that shouldn’t be.

    HR 8326, dubbed the Ensuring a Fair and Accurate Census Act would make it more difficult for a president to fire a Census Bureau director, while also granting the director broad new authorities to conduct statistical sampling. It would expand the number of Census Bureau employees with civil service protections. It also constrains future censuses from inquiring about citizenship–which could favor Democrats for enumeration and apportionment.

    When the oversight committee advanced the bill in July, committee Chairwoman Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., complained about the “Trump administration’s illegal efforts to weaponize the Census Bureau for political gain.”

    House Oversight Committee Democrats Reps. Gerald Connolly of Virginia and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania co-sponsored H.R. 302, dubbed the Preventing a Patronage System Act. The theory is that if Trump is elected, he would eliminate the civil service system and return to a spoils system.

    The press release for the bill references Trump’s final months in office, when he signed an executive order creating a “Schedule F” category of federal employees.

    The order determined that career employees with civil service protections involved with “policy-determining, policy-making, or policy-advocating” positions that are “not normally subject to change as part of a presidential transition” could be more easily removed for insubordination, which was a problem during the Trump administration.

    This would affect a maximum 50,000 federal employees out of the 2.2 million federal workforce. That’s far from a patronage system.

    The Whistleblower Protection Improvement Act, or H.R. 2988, certainly is a more innocuous sounding name, since many Republican lawmakers love whistleblowers that rat out Democrats. But this bill practically encourages bad actors in the federal workforce to simply engage in meritless accusations–thus abuse the legal whistleblower protections. Whistleblowers have significant legal protection now. But the bill would create a new legal veil around whistleblowers and enshrines whistleblower anonymity in all situations.

    Connolly, the Virginia Democrat, said the bill comes  “in the wake of the Trump administration’s assault on whistleblowers.”

    Maybe considering the record of the Biden administration, Democrats feel they should keep reminding voters of Trump. Perhaps it makes good fundraising letters for these politicians to tell Democrat donors they are still sticking it to the bad orange man.

    Still, one must wonder: if Trump had decided to fade from public life like most presidents, what in the world would hold Democrats together?

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 23:40

  • Tropical Storm Fiona Forms In Atlantic; Caribbean Islands In Path
    Tropical Storm Fiona Forms In Atlantic; Caribbean Islands In Path

    After a relatively quiet hurricane season, with no named storms in August, a new tropical system has formed in the Atlantic Basin that should be monitored into the weekend. 

    Tropical Storm Fiona, the sixth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, is moving westward with sustained winds above 50 mph. It’s about 625 miles east of the Leeward Islands and strengthened from a tropical depression Wednesday.  

    The islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla have all issued tropical storm watches. Additional watches and warnings could be issued today. 

    “On the forecast track, the center of the storm is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands late Friday and Friday night, and be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend,” the hurricane center said.

    Meteorologist Zach Covey pointed out that most models show Fiona could hook right into the Atlantic on Monday. At least one model shows the storm could traverse into the Northern Gulf of Mexico, while another shows it riding up the US East Coast. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    It’s still too early to determine what path Fiona takes next week, but it’s a storm to watch. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 23:20

  • Space Diamonds From Dwarf Planets May Be Future Of Mining & Manufacturing
    Space Diamonds From Dwarf Planets May Be Future Of Mining & Manufacturing

    Authored by Victoria Kelly-Clark via The Epoch Times,

    Tiny folded diamonds that fell to Earth from an ancient dwarf star may sound like something from an intergalactic feature film, but researchers from Australia and the United Kingdom have proven the existence of the rare gems after examining a stony meteorite.

    Scientists from Australia and the UK have established the existence of lonsdaleite, a rare hexagonal diamond, no bigger than a human hair, that researchers note is layered into a distinctive folded pattern, unlike the earth-formed diamonds that have a cubic structure.

    The existence of Lonsdaleite—named after the pioneering British crystallographer Dame Kathleen Lonsdale—has previously been the subject of debate because its very existence could not be proven.

    The lead scientist on the research team Prof. Andy Tomkins, from Monash University’s School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, said the mysteries of the rare diamond were what drove him continue researching ureilite meteorites in his lab.

    Tomkins said it was a case of curiosity-driven science.

    “This is exactly the sort of curiosity-piquing observation that sends scientists diving down rabbit holes for months on end,” he said.

    Scientists from Australia and the UK have established the existence of lonsdaleite, a rare hexagonal diamond no bigger than human hair. Image shows the ‘The Rock,’ a 228.31-karat pear-shaped white diamond, in Geneva on May 6, 2022. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images)

    Naturally formed ureilite meteorites contains a higher abundance of diamond than any known rock on Earth. They are also one of the few opportunities to study the mantle layer of dwarf planets.

    The samples are created when asteroids collide with a planet while still hot, creating the ideal conditions for lonsdaleite and diamond growth due to moderate pressure and rapid temperature drops in the fluid and gas-rich environment.

    “These findings help address a long-standing mystery regarding the formation of the carbon phases in ureilites that has been the subject of much speculation,” Tomkins said.

    Tomkins also collaborated with researchers from the CSIRO, RMIT University, the Australian Synchrotron, and Plymouth University to discover samples of lonsdaleite in nature, offering an insight into potential replication of the process for industrial purposes.

    “These diamonds are quite special,” said Alan Salek, physicist and RMIT PhD researcher.

    “Normal diamonds that you would find here on Earth, like on an engagement ring, have a specific atomic structure that’s cubic. These special diamonds are hexagonal in structure.”

    “It’s pretty exciting because it’s a new form of material.”

    The unique shape is believed to be why lonsdaleite is stronger than any other diamond.

    Significant Implications For Mining and Manufacturing

    CSIRO scientist Colin MacRae in a media release, said the discovery has enormous potential for industries like mining.

    “If something that’s harder than diamond can be manufactured readily, that’s something industry would want to know about,” MacRae said.

    Manufacturing at a Brisbane factory in Australia, on Jan 25, 2017. (AAP Image/Glenn Hunt)

    Macrae noted that the discovery meant they could find a way to reproduce the mineral.

    “Lonsdaleite could be used to make tiny, ultra-hard machine parts if we can develop an industrial process that promotes the replacement of pre-shaped graphite parts by lonsdaleite,” he said.

    At present, the current method for producing industrial diamonds involves chemical vapour deposition, in which diamonds are formed onto a substrate from a gas mix at low pressures.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 23:00

  • Yuan Fades Despite 'Suddenly' Strong China Macro Data Across The Board
    Yuan Fades Despite ‘Suddenly’ Strong China Macro Data Across The Board

    Just days after Morgan Stanley question whether China could stabilize global growth, tonight’s avalanche of macro data from Beijing suggests the unleashing of various liquidity measures – and the random lifting of some COVID-Zero lockdowns – was just enough to juice the data in August as almost everything beat expectations and improved sequentially…

    • China Industrial Production rose 3.6% YTD YoY in August – IN LINE with expectations of +3.6% and UP from July’s 3.6% MoM rise.

    • China Retail Sales rose 0.5% YTD YoY in August – BEATing expectations of +0.2% and UP from July’s 0.2% MoM drop.

    • China Fixed Asset Investment rose 5.8% YTD YoY in August – BEATing expectations of +5.5% and UP from July’s 5.7% MoM rise.

    • China Surveyed Jobless Rate fell to 5.3 in August – BEATing expectations of 5.4% and BETTER then July’s 5.4% – despite youth unemployment at 18.7%

    However, there was was black eye in the bunch:

    China Property Investment tumbled 7.4% YTD YoY in August – MISSing expectations of -7.0%% and WORSE than July’s 6.4% decline.

    Additionally residential property sales continued their weakness, down 30.3% YTD YoY, suggesting China’s property slump shows little sign of easing…

    Digging into the details, Helen Qiao of Bank of America told Bloomberg Television making the point that retail sales has been boosted by auto sales, but broader consumer sentiment remains hostage to the aggressive covid zero strategy.

    Looking through the retail sales break down, autos and petroleum saw double digit gains and there was strength also in food, eating out, tobacco/alcohol, medicine. The weakest sectors were cosmetics, furniture and communication appliances

    This all seems very well timed – the increase in industrial output is particularly interesting given leading indicators like PMIs and exports have been flagging weakening demand.

    China’s offshore yuan was fading fast after the data – and was rather notably weaker than the RMB Fix – breaking significantly weaker above 7/USD. That is the 17th straight day of Yuan fixing stronger than the offshore rate.

    Will China intervene to halt the imported inflation? Judging by the fix – and the flood of suddenly positive data – they are trying.

    As Bloomberg’s Enda Curran notes, these numbers will stoke views that the economy has bottomed – but – given the ongoing challenges from extreme weather, the housing data we saw this morning, weakening global demand for China’s exports and of course covid zero, feels like a big call to say things will turn from here.

    Ho Woei Chen, economist with United Overseas Bank Ltd. in Singapore, says:

    “The improvements in data provided some relief but economic challenges remain. The pace of recovery in production, consumption and investment is still in question for the coming months. The offshore yuan trend is also a function of the Fed’s monetary policy. For PBOC, it is expected to maintain an accommodative policy to help the economy recover.”

    Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, says: 

    “August’s data does not relieve our concern on China’s growth outlook. It does reflect the impact of Chengdu’s lockdown.”

    Furthermore, this is a timely turn for the data given the Party Congress will kick off in four weeks from now and it also runs against the recent narrative that government support isn’t gaining traction.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 22:40

  • Macleod: Inflation Is Turning Hyper…
    Macleod: Inflation Is Turning Hyper…

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    Money supply took off during covid lockdowns. It is now about to take off again to pay everyone’s energy bills. But that is not all.

    Demands for currency and credit to be conjured out of thin air to pay for everything will be coming thick and fast. Expectations that energy prices, including European electricity, have peaked are naïve. Putin has yet to put the winter and spring screws on Europe and the world fully. It will be surprising if global oil and natural gas prices in Europe are not significantly higher on a twelve-month view. And Europe has messed up its electricity supplies — that is where the energy costs will rise most.

    Bankers are trying to reduce their loan exposure to rising interest rates, undermining GDP. Besides paying for everyone’s energy bills, rescuing troubled banks, collapsing tax revenues, and difficulties in selling government debt on rising yields, governments are expected to apply economic stimulus to support both their economies and financial markets.

    Furthermore, this article points to evidence as to why the expansion of central bank credit has a far greater impact on prices than contracting bank credit. The replacement of commercial bank credit by central bank credit will have a far greater inflationary impact than the deflation from bank credit alone.

    Attempts to rescue the American, European, and Japanese economies by replacing commercial bank credit with central bank credit will probably be the coup de grace for fiat.

    We can begin to anticipate the path to the destruction of purchasing power for all fiat currencies, not just those of Zimbabwe, Turkey, and Venezuela et al. A global hyperinflation is proving impossible to avoid.

    First it was covid, now it is energy… 

    For the magic money tree, its exfoliation is just one thing after another…

    Having recognised the impracticality of putting price controls on Russian gas and oil, the EU is turning to protecting all households and businesses from the energy crisis. Even Switzerland, and now the UK are bowing to the inevitable consequences of combining inflationary monetary policies of recent years, environmental wokism, and frankly irresponsible energy policies with the decision to sanction the world’s largest energy exporter.

    There can be little doubt that a common approach to resolving energy problems has been decided upon following informal discussions at a supranational level. After all, forums such as the G7 and G20 are all about agreeing to act together, a united front to prevent markets taking control of events out of government hands. Lines of communication continue between formal meetings. That way, establishment statists believe there is less chance of a currency crisis created by one government pursuing a rogue course.

    The consequence, of course, is that even with successful management, misguided policies get implemented. A group-thinking form of myopia takes over. And while the immediate problem is addressed, the consequences are rarely foreseen.  These subsequent effects are almost certainly going to undermine statist attempts to alleviate the hardship their earlier policies have inflicted on their electors.

    In Britain’s case, it is proposed that electricity and presumably gas bills will be fully funded above £2,500 per household, with support arrangements to be put in place for businesses. But much of France’s nuclear power is shut down — 32 of Électricité de France’s 56 nuclear reactors are out of action, with four showing stress corrosion and small cracks in the cement works and a further 12 reactors suspected of being similarly affected. The other sixteen are shut for routine maintenance. It seems that France expects to import electricity through October to February from European neighbours, including the UK, while the UK expects to import French electricity. 

    How support for businesses will be implemented is unclear; it is an extremely complex issue. But there is little doubt that without this support, the economy will collapse this winter as businesses shut down, unemployment rockets, and the lowest rungs in society, emotively the elderly and struggling single mothers, find it impossible to keep body and soul together. From the government’s point of view, if nothing is done now revenue will collapse, welfare costs escalate, civil disobedience could worsen, and law and order break down. The same problems would arise in the European Union, with some nations facing a greater propensity to riot.

    There is no doubt that in the practical world of modern politics, where everyone’s business is the business of government, there is no alternative to ramping up support for the people and their employers in the times ahead. Either the problem has to be faced now, or the consequences for government finances will have to be faced later. 

    The problem of financing energy subsidies is not yet a public issue. As experience with covid showed, governments were able to ramp up their funding to cover emergencies without much difficulty. This leads to an assumption that governments can simply issue more debt — perhaps £150 billion in the UK’s case but likely to be more, taking the government debt to GDP ratio to over 110%. The impact on indebted EU member states with already far higher debt to GDP ratios is not good either, but what else is to be done?

    Undoubtedly, selling bonds to pay for everyone’s excess energy bills will be problematic. Government funding through covid and its aftermath was against a background of declining interest rates, when banks, insurance companies and pension funds were prepared to buy government bonds. We now face the prospect of rising interest rates, with price inflation suggesting that interest rates have much, much further to rise. Appetite for fixed interest bonds is bound to be substantially diminished. Furthermore, central banks are no longer quantitatively easing, but beginning to tighten. 

    Therefore, the market certainty that comes with central banks underwriting their government bond prices is no longer there. Investors, mostly in the form of pension funds and insurance companies, are bound to take a more cautious view and have little alternative to ducking auctions of government debt.

    Without genuine investment being diverted from the private sector into government bonds, any issue of government debt exceeding redemptions of existing stock becomes inflationary. Central banks are surely aware that to accommodate this new wave of government borrowing, quantitative tightening will have to be abandoned, funding through short-term commercial bank credit will be increasingly relied upon, and bond yields must rise to the point where debt can be got away. As to whether quantitative easing will be reintroduced, that would represent a policy U-turn of great difficulty at a time of rising interest rates and rising consumer prices. 

    Market participants have not yet taken this problem fully inboard, confirmed by complacency over valuations in financial markets. Despite the wake-up call this week when US consumer prices rose ever so slightly more than expected and the Dow fell 1,276 points, investors still hope that inflation is transitory, and that the threat of a deepening recession is a far greater problem, limiting the rise in bond yields. Current macroeconomic theories only allow for one or the other outcome. A contraction of credit, higher prices, and higher interest rates is deemed contradictory to the solution for a recessionary outlook. 

    But rising bond yields in any real magnitude simply destroys value and therefore credit. A shortage of credit ensues, and the scramble for more credit to replace it drives interest rates even higher. It always happens at the onset of a financial crisis, as clearly illustrated by the UK’s secondary banking crisis in 1973. The Bank of England’s rates reluctantly began to rise that April from 9.75% against a deteriorating economic background, reflecting a tightening of credit. Banks exposed to commercial property began to collapse after the BoE’s rate was raised to 12% in October.

    The root of the confusion is essentially ignorance of the relation between the quantity of credit in circulation and the consequences of its contraction. It is this relationship which rules prices, not the supply and demand curves favoured by the neo-Keynesian consensus.

    Economists and the investing establishment prefer to view the expansion of currency and credit in connection with the covid crisis as a one-off event, with economies and government finances reverting to more sustainable paths in due course. Examples of this thinking are shown in both the Congressional Budget Office’s ten-year forecasts, and in those of the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility. Every time their forecasts are proved incorrect, they simply extend the timeline back to the official inflation target.

    Putting aside the legacy of damages done to businesses and personal finances, it can be claimed that covid is behind us. But to believe that government finances are free to recover over time is ill-founded. 

    Yet more “one-off” inflation waves are to follow

    Though the particulars always differ, once the path of inflationary finance is embarked upon, requirements for more inflationary finance always arise. From covid, we segway to energy and food for the masses. The consequences for the western world’s fiat currencies and financial systems are dire, but that is not the end of demand for yet more inflationary finance. The following competing issues are increasingly certain to arise in the coming months, some of them running concurrently and some yet to materialise:

    • Energy supplies. Having shut down Nord-stream 1, Russia is already tightening energy supplies for Europe and the NATO alliance generally, which will strictly limit their ability to accumulate further fossil energy reserves for the winter. While Europe has made good headway storing gas from other sources recently, depleted reserves will still have to be addressed in the spring. Separately, with a large chunk of France’s nuclear generation currently offline electricity prices are set to soar, irrespective of gas and oil prices. The best that Europe can do is pray for a very mild winter. And while EU nations will be ready to impose windfall taxes on energy suppliers, there will still be enhanced budget deficits to be financed if businesses and consumers are to be compensated.

    • Future energy prices. The decline in oil prices since June will almost certainly be reversed. European governments have already or are about to promise to bail out all their consumers and businesses irrespective of cost. The cost can only be met by limitless currency dilution, difficult to achieve when the entire euro system of the ECB and national central banks itself is in negative equity due to falling bond values. The commitment to subsidise energy costs gives Putin an added weapon: yet higher oil and gas prices will undermine EU governments’ finances even further, bringing extra pressure to bear on politicians leading to a likely breakdown of the NATO alliance. This is Putin’s real objective, and he won’t let up until this is achieved. Until then, for Putin the higher European oil and gas prices go, the better. 

    • The war in Ukraine. Military setbacks for Russia in East Ukraine are likely to intensify retaliatory restrictions on European energy supplies. Grain and fertiliser shortages are not going to be resolved in the foreseeable future, and shipments from Odessa are likely to be stopped. While western press reports suggest that Ukraine is winning back territory, it seems to be making progress in thinly defended areas along a 1000-mile border. In any event, the campaign season on the ground cannot last long before late autumnal rains and snow turn battlefields into muddy quagmires. The war will then turn into a stalemate and armies become entrenched like those of the Somme. There is unlikely to be any economic relief for Russia’s “unfriendlies” from current military successes against Russian troops.

    • Geopolitics. Russia’s geopolitical focus is to create with China a new Asian powerhouse. Oil and gas are being heavily discounted for fellow travellers, giving them an economic advantage over Russia’s “unfriendlies”. Even the Saudis recognise that their future is not with fossil-fuel hating Europeans, but with fellow Asians, Africans, and South Americans such as Brazil. The western powers face a relative economic decline, which is bound to encourage governments in the Asian camp to liquidate their US, UK and EU government bond and currency holdings. With substantial Asian-owned debt and currency balances tending to be liquidated, the negative consequences for western financial markets and their currencies are yet to materialise.

    • Eurozone’s financial fragility. Unless NATO compromises sufficiently (i.e., the Americans withdraw from European affairs and remove their missiles), Europe can expect no help from Russia. Germany’s economy is already verging on collapse. It is the EU’s powerhouse: with Germany in steep decline, all sorts of issues are raised — the future of the banks, the future of the TARGET2 euro settlement system, the future of the euro itself. The ECB and the entire euro system can only respond by supplying unlimited quantities of inflationary finance to preserve the euro system: that is more important to the ECB than preserving value for the euro on the foreign exchanges.

    • Rising interest rates. Interest rates are now rising, driven not by central banks, which are determined to resist the trend, but by contracting credit. Falling purchasing powers for the dollar and the other major western currencies are just beginning to accelerate, ensuring a buyers’ strike in bond markets and significantly higher yields. Initially, bank lending margins may benefit, but non-performing loans will increase rapidly. The €9 trillion Eurozone repo market will begin to unwind, creating a liquidity crisis for banks which depend upon it to maintain their balance sheet integrity. Central banks will be called upon to ensure there are no bank failures in this challenging operational environment.

    • Bank credit downturn. We face a cyclical downturn in commercial bank credit. The evidence that it has started is mounting. When bank lending in an economy shrinks, it always leads to a financial and economic crisis, proportional to the expansion that preceded it. It will be a miracle if this downturn does not lead to a collapse of one or more of the major banks, with a domino effect almost certain to follow. The most leveraged banks are in the Eurozone, which faces the added problems of a belligerent Russia on its eastern front, and in Japan. These banks may have to be bailed leading to a further expansion of central bank currency and the introduction of bank lending guarantees to keep zombie corporations out of bankruptcy, this time under the combined direction of both central banks and their governments.

    • Falling financial asset values. Rising interest rates and bond yields will undermine all financial asset values. Not only will this damage economic confidence, but banks will be forced to liquidate financial assets held as collateral against loans. This will magnify pressure on banks to reduce their balance sheet totals while they can, and financial market values will fall more heavily in consequence, undermining economic confidence. Undoubtedly, vested interests will fight for renewed inflationary policies and interest rate suppression in a desire to maintain asset values, particularly in the US which has become over-dependent on investor confidence in financial markets.

    • The slump in GDP. Because the transactions that make up GDP are entirely financed by bank credit, bank credit contraction will lead to a slump in nominal GDP. Driven by interventionist economic policies, in their desperation governments are sure to try to stimulate recovery by increasing their spending at a time of declining tax revenues. The cost of the extra debt incurred will soar, not just due to the quantities involved, but because higher interest rates and auction failures will be the backdrop to what amounts to a global debt trap from which it is impossible to escape.

    To summarise so far; from covid being a one-off economic crisis requiring enhanced deficit spending by governments, we now see a second one-off crisis centred on subsidising energy and food. This will be followed by further and increasing demands for inflationary funding, as briefly enumerated in the bullet points above. Attempts to prevent western economies contracting, buyers strikes in bond markets, along with collapsing bank credit will probably be the coup de grace for fiat currencies.

    How currency debasement as opposed to contracting bank credit leads to a final collapse of fiat currency purchasing power must be our next topic.

    The relative consequences of currency and credit inflation

    There has been little or no theoretical analysis done of the different effects on prices from an increased quantity of bank credit, and that of currency. The former is essentially cyclical, while in fiat currency regimes, the increase in the quantity of currency is continual with a strong tendency to accelerate. 

    Observation of the current situation, informed by the consequences of a rising interest rate outlook, together with statistical evidence from the history of bank credit cycles, point to a periodic and severe contraction in bank credit which is only now becoming evident. Other things being equal, contracting bank credit is likely to apply downward pressure on prices. We can expect contracting bank credit to be replaced by central bank credit expansion. Because they will work in opposition, we need to assess how important the deflationary pressure is likely to be from the bank credit cycle relative to inflationary pressures from increasing quantities of central bank derived credit, issued to finance rising government deficits.

    First, we must isolate the effect on prices from variations of commercial bank credit. Under Britain’s gold coin standard which ran from 1817 to 1914, the cycle of bank credit expansion and contraction is evidenced in the effect on the inflation rate of wholesale prices, as shown in Figure 1.

    The cycle’s periodicity was remarkably constant, averaging a ten-year span, a constancy which remains evident to this day. The pecked line marks the date the Bank of England joined the commercial bank clearing system, the relevance of which is discussed below. Wholesale prices are a more direct reflection of cycles of bank credit than consumer prices which during those times of very little consumer credit were less affected by cycles of bank lending. Furthermore, statistics representing the general level of consumer prices were not widely available before the 1930s, and consumer price statistics before the First World War are just guesswork.

    The swings between credit expansion and contraction affected wholesale prices in accordance with David Ricardo’s quantity theory of money, upon which modern monetary theory is based. That is to say, an increase in bank credit leads to higher prices, and a contraction to lower prices. The validity of Ricardo’s quantity theory was due to an underlying stability provided to sterling by the gold coin exchange standard introduced in 1817. It allows us to link changes in the level of prices with changes in the level of bank credit. Furthermore, a little knowledge of the history of banking is required to understand why the inflationary/deflationary swings diminished after 1864.

    Before 1844, banking combined dealing with credit and the issue of bank notes before the note issue monopoly was given to the Bank of England by virtue of the 1844 Bank Charter Act. Banknotes in circulation reflected a higher counterparty risk before 1844, which undoubtedly contributed to less price stability than after the Act, when bank notes became a direct liability of the Bank of England.

    In 1864, the Bank of England was admitted to the clearing system set up by the commercial banks, and the use of bank notes and coin in the clearing system ceased entirely. Prior to that date, differences between the commercial banks and the Bank were settled in Bank of England notes, requiring every bank to keep substantial quantities of notes on hand. That the effect of swings in bank credit on the inflation rate of wholesale prices diminished was attributable to improvements in the overall banking system, notably the evolution of centralised clearing of credit imbalances. 

    We can therefore link the price effect of cycles of bank credit to the efficiency of bank credit clearing systems, particularly after 1864. With the stability provided by the gold coin exchange standard, interest rates measured by undated government debt declined from about 5% in 1815 (where it was restricted from going no higher by law until 1833) to under 3% in 1880. The improvement in the efficiency of credit creation and distribution contributed to the lowering of this measure of interest over time.

    It is also understood from Austrian business cycle theory that rises and falls in bank credit were directly linked to economic booms and slumps. These did not diminish after the Bank Charter Act, as might be inferred from the lower wholesale price volatility that followed it, particularly following 1864. Far from it: Overend Gurney collapsed in 1866, and the Barings crisis was in 1890. Rather than being economic in nature, credit crises became more financial.

    Following the Panic of 1873, the long depression led to a worldwide decline in commodity prices that lasted for fifteen years. Following the recovery from the Overend Gurney crisis, in Britain it was due to the unwinding of excessive speculation financed by bank credit expansion — the bust phase of the classic bank credit cycle. But Britain’s economy was less affected than those of other countries, and her economy merely stagnated, with heavy industries principally affected. While British wholesale prices declined by about 15% by 1895, the slump elsewhere was worse.

    But the lesson learned is that the inflationary consequences of bank credit are to some extent tied to the efficiency of the banking system. And with modern technology and money markets, the price effect of the credit cycle on its own is less significant relative to other factors. 

    The consequences of fiat replacing a gold standard

    It will also be noted from Figure 1, that the long-term average level of wholesale prices remained remarkably constant despite all the cyclical swings of inflation and deflation. This was due to the gold coin standard enacted in 1817, whereby the money standard was set by law to be the gold sovereign, to be freely available in exchange for bank notes and bank credit. All further issues of banknotes by the Bank of England were required to be backed by gold in the 1844 Bank Charter Act. And after the Bank of England joined the clearing system, wholesale prices showed a remarkable degree of stability, despite the economic consequences of the cycle of bank credit. 

    We have noted how changes in the level of bank credit affect wholesale prices; now we must note the stabilising effect of the gold coin exchange standard.

    The transacting population knew that they could access real money, that is gold, in exchange for credit at any time. So long as this was the case, the ratio of personal liquidity to goods purchased remained stable. To understand why the ratio matters, imagine a situation where the general population decides for one reason or another to withhold some of their spending and retain higher balances of credit to hand in the form of banknotes and bank deposits. The general level of prices must fall. Conversely, if the general public collectively decides to reduce the level of credit to hand in favour of purchases, the prices of goods will rise.

    The point about a gold standard is not that gold circulates as a medium of exchange: far from it, it is hoarded in greater or lesser quantities. It is almost never spent. Under an effective standard, gold being freely convertible on demand from forms of credit at a fixed rate is what mattered. The gold coin exchange standard imparted an underlying stability to the purchasing power of bank notes and bank deposit credit, which they would not otherwise enjoy.

    The relationship between gold and forms of credit as circulating media is thus clarified. We must now turn to the situation of fiat currencies, where gold is not available in exchange for credit on demand. Currency and credit loses its anchor, and we must anticipate human action in these circumstances. We are no longer simply addressing fluctuating levels of bank credit but changing perceptions of the purchasing power of banknotes issued by central banks as well. And it should be noted that all instances of collapses in the purchasing power of media of exchange have been the outcome of the public rejecting fiat currencies by minimising their exposure to them.

    Therefore, we can easily understand the consequences of the general public rejecting a currency entirely, preferring to hold goods instead of credit, needed or not. The currency’s purchasing power diminishes towards nothing, a situation demonstrated in multiple currencies today which lack their public’s credibility. Zimbabwe, Cuba, Lebanon, Turkey, Myanmar, Venezuela etc. The list is becoming extensive.

    It has nothing to do directly with changes in the quantities of currency and credit, which can vary independently from a fiat currency’s purchasing power. We have seen that expanding and contracting bank credit does have a price effect, but on its own it corrects back to a norm. But if that norm is not gold but a fiat currency, we can expect a different outcome.

    Understanding this is of fundamental importance, particularly in the situation we face today when we can expect commercial bank credit, contracting GDP, to be replaced with central bank credit. So, why is bank credit set to implode, taking GDP with it?

    Commercial banks around the world are as highly leveraged in their ratios of balance sheet assets to equity as they have ever been. While regulators concentrate on balance sheet liquidity, bank directors are responsible to their shareholders. In an environment of high consumer inflation, and therefore rising interest rates, they know that a large proportion of their loans will go sour. And where they have loaned credit for financial activities and speculation, the value of collateral against those loans is bound to fall as well. There can be no doubt that to protect their shareholders, bankers will reduce their loan books to private sector businesses as much as possible and restrict their lending to state actors to short maturities, such as treasury bills.

    Almost every transaction recorded in nominal GDP is paid for by deposit transfers between bank accounts. The level of bank deposits is the counterpart of bank lending. Bank lending is just beginning to contract, evidenced by the expansion of broad money supply turning down. So will GDP.

    Commentators almost always miss the importance of the currency side of transactions, talking instead of recession as if it were a matter of consumers or businesses driving the fall in economic activity. This is a grievous error. It is banks withdrawing credit from the economy which drives it all, and the level of nominal GDP is a direct reflection of bank credit being used for qualifying transactions. Today, commercial banks around the world are on the verge of withdrawing more credit from economic activity than since the early 1930s.

    We know from our analysis of post-1864 Britain to expect a negative price effect from bank credit contraction, but at that time the price effect of contracting bank credit was not a big deal for wholesale prices, having far greater consequences for speculative activity in financial markets. Today, banks seem to be slow to withdraw consumer credit, perhaps under the baleful influence of their central bank. Instead, they are withdrawing credit from businesses, particularly the small and medium size enterprises that make up a Pareto 80% of any economy. And state support for businesses facing higher energy costs will not change this at all. On its own, the contraction of bank credit seems unlikely to have a significant negative effect on prices (i.e., lead to their decline), since it is leading more to the restriction of the supply side of the economy than consumption.

    Under current economic and monetary policies, falling GDP, due to contracting bank credit will be replaced by central bank currency in one form or another. From their magic money trees, central banks must procure the currency and credit for their governments to inject into their economies. We will see less destabilising commercial bank credit with respect to prices being replaced by more destabilising central bank credit, particularly when the public sees no end to its expansion.

    It is central bank issued credit, not that emanating from commercial banks, which is evaluated by the public. And when the public adopts a general view that it should be reduced to as little as possible by purchasing goods simply to be rid of it, then price rises accelerate, and its purchasing power collapses, irrespective of changes in the quantity in circulation.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 22:20

  • The Last Development Parcel In The Country's Wealthiest Zip Code Just Sold For More Than $100 Million
    The Last Development Parcel In The Country’s Wealthiest Zip Code Just Sold For More Than $100 Million

    While the poors have been arguing about abortion and inflation back on the mainland, the richest people in the nation have been quietly snatching up all of the best real estate. 

    Such was the case this week when Related Group, a developer led by billionaire Jorge Perez, bought the last development parcel available on Miami Beach’s ritzy Fisher Island, according to Bloomberg

    The address, 6 Fisher Island Drive, was sold for more than $100 million to buyers that included Related, Israeli billionaire Teddy Sagi, BH Group and Wanxiang America RE Group, the report says. 

    The plan is to build about 50 condos on the site with penthouses priced at more than $60 million and “normal” units priced at about $30 million. The condos will be between 3,800 sq. feet and up to more than 12,000 sq. feet. 

    Perez told Bloomberg this week: “This is the last opportunity for someone to buy a new development, pre-construction in Fisher Island. To be able to develop on Fisher Island is really a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.”

    And he made it no secret about who he is eventually looking to sell to: “An executive for Citadel is one of our perfect buyers, where if he wanted to, he could get picked up by boat right from the property and take it across the bay to Brickell. That is an amenity and perk, where we’re the only project that will offer that.”

    Off the coast of Florida, Fisher Island is described as “an ultra-exclusive private island” and “the wealthiest zip code in the United States”. 

    The island is “accessible only by private yacht or 7-and-a-half-minute auto-ferry from Miami Beach” and “spans 216 private acres of tropical resort-style living, located within minutes from the cultural enticements of Miami.”

    The island’s Fisher Island Club provides access to the oceanfront Beach Club, Vanderbilt Mansion, Spa Internazionale, a par-35 championship nine-hole golf course, state-of-the-art Racquet Club, and two private deep-water marinas, among other amenities.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 22:00

  • Woke Twilio CEO Conducts "Anti-Racist" Mass Layoff
    Woke Twilio CEO Conducts “Anti-Racist” Mass Layoff

    Yesterday saw San Francisco-based tech firm Twilio join the growing ranks of companies that are laying off employees as post-pandemic growth reality falls short of pandemic-pumping hype.

    Source

    Twilio CEO Jeff Lawson announced plans to cut around 11% of the company’s workforce, after admitting that the company had grown too fast:

    “Twilio has grown at an astonishing rate over the past couple years. It was too fast, and without enough focus on our most important company priorities. I take responsibility for those decisions, as well as the difficult decision to do this layoff.”

    But this announcement was different.

    For the first time we can remember, the CEO appeared to make the case that race was involved in the decision-making process around who lost their jobs…

    “Layoffs like this can have a more pronounced impact on marginalized communities,” Lawson wrote in a memo to employees.

    “So we were particularly focused on ensuring our layoffs – while a business necessity today – were carried out through an Anti-Racist/Anti-Oppression lens.”

    Forgive us for our obvious bias, but doesn’t that statement infer that if they hadn’t considered race then the layoffs would have been ‘racist’?

    Of course, the liberal media rose up as one to defend Lawson’s comments. Fortune reports, that two sources at Twilio told them the anti-racist effort was not controversial inside the company.

    “No one at Twilio has made any mention of it,” one of the sources said.

    “Being an anti racist company is part of our core values.”

    The employees dismissed claims of “race-based” job cuts.

    “I’m sure right wingers think this means firing only white people,” one of the employees said, noting that it appeared anecdotally that the laid off employees were “an equal mix” of women, men, and underrepresented minorities.

    Well how do they explain his comments then… since Lawson did not provide any details about how the company would ensure that the layoffs did not cut deeper into certain groups of its 7,800 worldwide employees

    Are we really at that point?

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 21:44

  • Doug Casey On Class Warfare, 'Eat The Rich' Sentiment, & What Happens Next
    Doug Casey On Class Warfare, ‘Eat The Rich’ Sentiment, & What Happens Next

    Via InternationalMan.com,

    International Man: Politicians looking for ways to finance their extravagant spending increasingly complain that the wealthy aren’t paying their “fair share.”

    It’s a trend in motion that is accelerating. This rising anti-wealth sentiment seems to be taking the US into dangerous territory.

    Our friend Rick Rule once said, “Eat the rich? Prepare to starve.”

    What is your take?

    Doug Casey: Once upon a time, government apologists liked to say that the rich had to be taxed in order to help the poor. That’s no longer the case. Nobody in America is starving. Even poor people have flat-screen TVs, air conditioning, and refrigerators. The poor live better than medieval royalty.

    What’s going on is the institutionalization of envy, a terrible vice. It’s different from jealousy.

    Jealousy says, “You have something that I want. I want one too. Give it to me.”

    Envy says, “You have something that I want. If I can’t have it, I’ll destroy it, so you can’t have it either.” Envy is the moral flaw that underlies all socialist economic theories. Socialist feelings and morality underly the economic lies, race hatred, class hatred, sex antagonism, and political polarization tearing the US and the West apart. Envy and socialism have become secular religions. The country has been divided into two different and mutually antagonistic worldviews.

    It’s a question of what’s right and wrong, what’s good and evil. It’s not a question of economics, about what’s more productive. This is a much more serious division. It amounts to a religious war between the Left, who want to overthrow and transform society, and the Right, who want to more-or-less maintain traditional values, but lack any real ideology.

    The Left is proposing all manner of outrageous, destructive, and genuinely stupid ideas. Free stuff for everybody. Not just food, shelter, schooling, and medical care provided at the expense of producers—which they’ve basically achieved. But now a guaranteed annual income. Everybody is supposed to get a thousand dollars a month, according to the silly twit and wannabe US president Andrew Yang. They won’t have to do anything, just exist, presumably hanging out at Starbucks playing with their iPhones all day. They’ll genuinely be what Yuval Noah Harari, the World Economic Forum’s mincing court intellectual, has called a permanent class of useless eaters.

    At some point, however, people who work, create, produce, and believe in traditional values will react. Maybe they’ll explode in a violent counter-revolution. Maybe they’ll quietly go on strike, as did Ayn Rand’s heroes in “Atlas Shrugged.” Or maybe they’ll roll over and be transformed into serfs—which is what The Elite would prefer and expect. But something wicked this way comes.

    International Man: What do you make of the hiring of 87,000 new IRS agents in the context of this trend?

    Doug CaseyThose people aren’t being recruited just to collect taxes, although that’s absolutely one of the things that they will do. They will amount to a national police force, one that has a different mandate than the FBI, the ATF, the DEA, or other Praetorian agencies. The tax authorities have a right to look at any economic activity everywhere and anywhere.

    As a moral issue, they’ll try to turn nonpayment of tax on the part of producers into a crime against society. I shudder to think of the type of amoral creatures being recruited—at fat salaries and with immense powers—to investigate the lives of their countrymen. They’ll be exactly analogous to Germany’s Gestapo or Stasi.

    These new IRS agents will have little to do with the poor. The poor are increasingly irrelevant, except for their votes. As it’s been throughout history, the uneducated lower classes basically do hand-to-mouth labor. They’re mainly interested in bread and circuses, and that’s what they’ll get. Their numbers are growing in this country for the first time.

    The new IRS agents won’t have much to do with the elite either; they can afford tax lawyers and accountants to fend them off. They’ll take a few casualties for show and the sake of “fairness,” but the elite are the main beneficiaries of the hundreds of billions of dollars that the government is pouring on society. This is all going to be paid for by the middle class, the people who actually produce and save.

    These new IRS agents are a direct attack on the middle class. The elite hate the middle class and what they stand for—independence, stability, and traditional values. The fact that they’re doubling the size of the tax police is truly extraordinary. As the economy continues to decline, you can expect class warfare—along with race and sex warfare—to increase.

    As I explained last week, this is an important part of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Hundreds of billions of dollars that the government will spend through their Inflation Reduction Act will be financed—intentionally—by the creation of new dollars.

    The reason why they say it’s “inflation reduction” is because the same number of dollars will theoretically be taken out of society through taxes. The new dollars will be placed with the people and companies the government likes. They say it won’t be inflationary because the same number of dollars will be taken out of the economy from people and companies that they don’t approve of. So, theoretically, the net number of dollars in society will stay the same, and the general price level will stay the same because the money supply will stay the same.

    That’s their economic argument. But the moral argument is far more important. MMT allocates hundreds of billions to those the Left approves of and will take that much away from the middle class through taxes. It’s diabolically clever. As I said, this amounts to a religious war because the people behind MMT are actually evil.

    Unfortunately, “evil” is a word which has been discredited; people no longer take it seriously. It’s been overused by emotional and often corrupt Bible thumpers, hell, and brimstone preachers. But evil really does exist. Evil is the intentional act of destroying something good.

    International Man: With financial markets falling and the US dollar’s purchasing power plummeting, many people are feeling poorer and are looking for someone to blame.

    What is your view on this dynamic and how it could affect the political situation?

    Doug CaseyThe speech Biden gave on September 1 was intended to be shocking and disturbing. It mimicked a scene out of V for Vendetta or 1984. They went out of their way to have Biden deliver it in Philadelphia, where the US was founded, and use red lighting against a dark background to fan emotions. These people are serious. Biden’s words were full of hate and venom, calling out half the country as the enemy—the speech was unprecedented. It was a warning and an overt threat.

    Look at the scene. The red background was over the top. Placing a couple of Marines in the background said, “I have power, and I’ll use it against the enemy.” Theatrics such as these are unprecedented. It amounted to a declaration of civil war. It was followed up by the outrageous raid on Trump’s home and the FBI perp-walking about 50 of his prominent supporters, with dawn raids, in subsequent days.

    These people truly want to overturn society. They’re actually a reincarnation of the Jacobins and could turn out to be just as violent and dangerous.

    They’re working to create an active environment of class warfare in the US. They’ve succeeded in fomenting race hatred, where people identify not as human beings but as people of color and anti-white. And sex warfare, wherein people are no longer either men or women—albeit a few with aberrations of varying degree—but as one or more of 50 or 60 genders.

    These people hate the middle class, with their traditional cultural and religious values. This is why Trump is so popular and why they identify with him. It’s not because many of his ideas are particularly good; he’s essentially a populist with no philosophical center.

    The elite and wannabe elitists hate Trump because he’s a cultural traditionalist. These people want to overthrow traditional culture itself and eliminate the middle class. In the ideal world of the WEF types, the vast majority of people, the deplorables, would be serfs and the kulaks serving the nomenklatura ruling on the top, assisted by their apparatchiki.

    I know it sounds outrageous, but that’s what’s on their minds. We’ve seen this before in history when Leftist intellectuals get control of real power, the apparatus of the State. They truly want to overturn the very basis of civilization. The Jacobins in revolutionary France, the Bolsheviks in Russia, the Nazis in Germany, the Maoists during China’s Great Cultural Revolution, and the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia. It can happen anywhere when conditions are right. It seems to be happening now in the US and other Western countries.

    Let’s hope it blows over. But don’t plan your life around that…

    International Man: Historically, the size and power of the middle class made the US different from other countries.

    But now, the US middle class is shrinking and feeling squeezed.

    Where is this trend going, and what can the average middle-class person do about it?

    Doug Casey: What was the average man supposed to do when the Jacobins brought out the guillotines in France in 1793? What should the average middle-class person have done in Russia in 1917? What should the average middle-class person have done in Germany in 1933?

    There’s not much you can do when actual forces of evil are in control. There’s very little that you can do except get out of Dodge.

    Here in the US, we still have a large middle class. Many are fat, dumb, indoctrinated, or addicted to Prozac and Zoloft. But millions of others are, to coin a phrase, mad as hell and aren’t going to take it anymore. The things we’ve been talking about could turn into a genuine civil war.

    What to do? Diversify your political jurisdictions. Don’t roll over like a whipped dog; speak up, and resist. But the most important thing you can do personally is become as rich as possible while maintaining your ethics. Being rich can help you to insulate yourself from evil and stupidity.

    *  *  *

    If you want to navigate the complicated economic and political situation that is unfolding, then you need to see this newly released video from Doug Casey and his team. In it, Doug reveals what you need to know, and how these dangerous times could impact your wealth. Click here to watch it now.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 21:40

  • Adderall Shortage Worsens As People Without Drug "Not Able To Focus", May Impact Productivity
    Adderall Shortage Worsens As People Without Drug “Not Able To Focus”, May Impact Productivity

    Adderal supplies in the US are dwindling as pharmacies and patients report shortages. The crux of the problem appears to be a major supplier of the drug for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder has run into supply chain issues. Patients who find themselves without their medication might experience “withdraw” or even a “crash” that could impact productivity at work. 

    The supply crunch first hit our radar last month when the National Community Pharmacists Association found hundreds of pharmacies across the US had trouble purchasing Adderall and generic versions of the brand in late July. 

    Bloomberg spoke with a dozen patients in California, Indiana, and Michigan who were told by their local pharmacists at CVS Health Corp. or Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. about a worsening drug shortage. 

    “In some cases, patients were told they might have to wait more than a week to get their medication, which is supposed to be taken every day,” Bloomberg noted. 

    Walgreens spokesperson Rebekah Pajak acknowledged that “supply chain challenges” persist with the drug. She said instant-release and extended-release Adderall are the ones in the shortest supply. Meanwhile, CVS spokesperson Matthew Blanchette said Adderall prescriptions at the company’s pharmacies can be filled “in most cases.” 

    The shortage began at Teva Pharmaceuticals, the US’ largest branded and generic Adderall supplier. Blomberg noted the Israeli multinational pharmaceutical company experienced “labor shortages” that led to the limited supply of brand-name and generic instant-release Adderall. Then three other companies Amneal Pharmaceuticals Inc., Rhodes Pharmaceuticals LP, a subsidiary of Purdue Pharma LP, and Novartis AG’s Sandoz unit, all were hit with a surge in orders for generic extended-release Adderall that is now on “back order.” 

    What appears to have happened in the world of pharmaceuticals is that when one drug manufacturer has a problem, it quickly has a ripple effect across the industry. 

    The shortage comes as amphetamine sales are at record highs, driven by increased ADHD diagnoses. During the virus pandemic, the federal government eased rules requiring patients to see a doctor in-person before the controlled substance was prescribed which is one of the contributing factors to over-prescription. 

    For those who miss their daily dosage because of the shortage, it’s entirely possible to experience symptoms of Adderall withdrawal. Some describe it as a “crash” that can leave people drowsy for hours, if not days, and include symptoms of mental and physical exhaustion and feelings of depression. 

    Anthony Anderson, a 34-year-old special education teacher at a Michigan high school, said he has been without his Adderall since Sept. 6. He’s been taking the medicine for 15 years to treat his ADHD, and without it, he says it’s incredibly difficult to concentrate, which makes it challenging for him to do this job. Sometimes, he forgets what he is talking about mid-sentence.

    Anderson was recently talking with a student about a suicide at the school, and at a time when he was supposed to be helping the grieving student, he just couldn’t pay attention. 

    “I even spaced out when I’m trying to have a serious conversation with this girl to console her, but I spaced out because I’m not able to focus,” he said. “This is a huge issue for me.” -Bloomberg 

    We would love to see the productivity metrics of performance-based companies over the next several months to see how an Adderall shortage impacted productivity. Then again, Wall Street has the luxury of another stimulant if an Adderall shortage affects Manhattan pharmacies; that is cocaine. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 21:20

  • Intolerance – Remain Silent Or Be Branded An Extremist
    Intolerance – Remain Silent Or Be Branded An Extremist

    Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

    It appears we are rapidly approaching or have reached the place where we must remain silent or be branded an extremist. There is a growing trend of intolerance. In such an environment it is little wonder that many people have become less vocal and afraid to speak their mind. The source of this is rooted in a blatant disregard for the opinions of others by both those on the left and the right. Democracy as a form of government is far from perfect. Its greatest weakness is rooted in the ability of a small vocal group to force its opinions on others. Sadly, this is not something that is going to rapidly go away.

    In a recent speech akin to something you might have witnessed in Germany or Italy before World War II President Biden demonized what he called MAGA Republicans. Biden labeled this group of Americans as dangerous extremists. The message was clear, anyone that expressed the views bantered about by former President Trump could be marked as an extremist. Those that do speak out under such a political framework are now part of a group that law enforcement officials target and might be inclined to place under tighter scrutiny or surveillance. 

    This growing fear of speaking out is not limited to America, we are seeing it in countries that claim to be free across the world. The tech giants and governments have been throwing fuel on the fire by adding to the feeling retaliation is a fair response to those we disagree with speaking their mind. The tech giants’ effort to closely watch, silence, and censor those not marching in line with their desired narrative is a dagger in the heart of free speech. This effort is apparent when we hear about small fringe groups outside mainstream society threatening to block highways, shut down ports, and occupy state capitols if things fail to go their way. It even extends to harassing elected officials, we are hearing more threats from groups vowing to hound and badger members of Congress or the judicial system at their homes.

    Governments Are Adding To The Fear

    This started several years ago and ramped up when the term “politically correct” moved front and center. In the minds of some individuals if you say anything that they consider “incorrect” it justifies a harsh response. It has now extended to declaring saying something that could hurt the feeling of some individual or group could be considered “hate speech.” As a result of this growing intolerance, people feel compelled to deny their opinions and remain silent.

    The United Nations has weighed in on this subject since hate speech incites violence and undermines social cohesion and tolerance. It claims such speech is nothing new, however, its scale and impact are nowadays amplified by new technologies of communication. The impact of hate speech cuts across numerous existing United Nations areas of focus, from human rights protection, preventing atrocity crimes, sustaining peace, promoting gender equality, and supporting children and youth. The problem here is when hate speech is allowed to be defined by the ears of the beholder. 

    Forcing Agreement Can Be Ugly

    A sign of growing intolerance is seen in the mass arrest of nonviolent protesters by governments. It is important we remember the cornerstones of democracy are the  freedom of assembly and the right to speak freely. When these are trampled upon for any reason, the system is in danger of being cast aside.

    This article is about the ability of a vocal minority to make people so uncomfortable they become silent. It is about how we should be appalled by those that justify violence, aggression, and force towards those that simply disagree with them. It is about how the threat you may be demonized if you say what you feel tends to breed silence. Watching this unfold is leaving a sickening feeling in those valuing free speech.

    We should be alarmed by a survey taken by Cato Institute/YouGov that found most Americans say “the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive”. The survey indicated that 52% of Democrats, 59% of independents, and 77% of Republicans now say they have political opinions they are afraid to share. Most people do not enjoy confrontations or being harassed and as a result, are self-censoring themselves. With the free exchange of opinions and ideas being the foundation of a free and healthy democracy the sign public discourse is being destroyed does not bode well for our continued freedom.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 21:00

  • Inflation Has Couples Who Grocery Shop Together Arguing Over Coke Zero, Kit Kat Bars And Pine Nuts
    Inflation Has Couples Who Grocery Shop Together Arguing Over Coke Zero, Kit Kat Bars And Pine Nuts

    We’re sure that some in the Biden administration would like to have you believe that the effects of rising prices across the country have been minimal, and have had a small effect on middle and lower class families.

    However, in actuality, inflation and the budgetary issues it is causing in U.S. households, is resulting in “infighting” amongst families, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    35 year old Leibel Sternbach, a financial adviser, told the Journal: “If I buy more of my milk before the one in the fridge is empty, there’s going to be hell to pay.” He said his wife double checks the fridge after every shopping trip and tells him of all the things he didn’t need to buy.

    Ah, the joys of marriage…

    The couple spends about $350 per week in groceries – a bill that is up from $220 a year prior. They are cutting back on items like pre-cut vegetables and oven ready meals to try and cut additional costs from their bill. 

    The couple has given up on their favorite discretionary snacks, which for the patriarch is babka, and the matriarch is Kit Kat candy bars. 

    Arne Boudewyn, head of family wealth and culture services at Wells Fargo, told the Journal that similar discussions are happening in households across the country: “You don’t want to have these conversations in the grocery store aisle.”

    39 year old Ruth Abolofia has seen her grocery bill rise to $1,000 per month from less than $900 per month a year ago. Her and her husband recently clashed over six $3 pints of blueberries that she bought. 

    The couple has cut back on the number of times they dine out to try and save money. “We’re trying to take a more collaborative approach,” she said. 

    42 year old Dan Wyckoff spars with his wife 43 year old Kristin Wyckoff about “how sugary baked goods make their way into the family’s pantry under the guise of breakfast food” before his wife reminds him that the food is for their four children. They spend about $750 a month on groceries, up from $650 a month a year ago. 

    “They often seem more like hobbits than humans,” Dan said of his children. Meanwhile, he has given up on one of his favorite products, Coke Zero, switching to a 12 pack every other week instead of one per week. 

    Another couple, the Sturgeon family, said their grocery bill is up to $767 per month, up about 20% from a year ago. Their arguments have come over tree nuts, which cost $2.50 an ounce. 

    “Don’t get me wrong, a dash of pine nuts can really elevate a salad. But $2.50 for an ounce of tree nuts starts to get a little ridiculous,” Scott Sturgeon said. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 20:40

  • Rickards: Forecasting The Midterm Elections
    Rickards: Forecasting The Midterm Elections

    Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

    There are 435 seats in the House of Representatives (not counting nonvoting seats for D.C. and some U.S. possessions) and all of them are up for election in November. Right now, the Democrats control the House with 219 Democrats versus 211 Republicans (there are five vacancies).

    It takes 218 votes to control the House. This means if the Republicans hold the seats they have and pick up just seven seats from Democrats, they will control the House.

    Will this happen? The 2022 election cycle is more challenging to predict than usual because it’s the first election since the 2020 Census that the House map had redrawn to reflect population gain or loss on a state-by-state basis.

    Texas gained two House seats, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon gained one each. The losers were California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, which lost one seat each.

    The new district maps favor Republicans on the whole. Another factor favoring the Republicans is that voters often turn back to the party opposing the incumbent president, either out of dissatisfaction with their presidential choice or simply to balance the scales in ways that keep any one party from becoming too powerful.

    The average loss for the president’s party in a first-term midterm since 1982 was 30 seats. If that were the only information I had, my forecast would be that the Republicans would gain 30 seats this November. That would put the House at 241 Republicans and 189 Democrats, a solid 47-seat majority.

    Interestingly, a RealClearPolitics forecast based on the average of numerous polls has a forecast of 219 Republicans and 182 Democrats, with 34 seats in the too-close-to-call category.

    If those toss-ups were decided in the same ratio as the likely winners (55% Republican to 45% Democrat), that would sort the undecided into 19 Republicans and 15 Democrats. That would produce a final House of 238 Republicans and 197 Democrats, almost exactly the result that the historical track record predicts.

    But can we go beyond statistics and polls to discern idiosyncratic factors that could push the results away from the central tendency? There are two.

    The first is the trend of Hispanics and African-Americans toward Republicans and away from Democrats.

    The Hispanic vote has historically been around 70% for Democrats, but recent polls show the Republicans may capture more than 50% of the Hispanic vote this time because Hispanics are trending conservative and are culturally anti-abortion, anti-crime and in favor of controlling the border.

    Hispanics make up about 20% of the total population. If you shift 20% of voters by 20% in preference, that yields a 4% gain for Republicans in the overall vote. With many districts split close to 50/50, a four-point pickup is huge. We’ve already seen this dynamic with Republican gains in seats on the Texas/Mexican border that were solidly Democratic until this year.

    The same trend is clear in the African-American community. They are 12% of the electorate and vote about 90% Democrat. However, recent voting results and polls show that the African-American vote could go as much as 20% for Republicans this time.

    A 10% gain in a 12% community adds another 1.2% to the Republican column. Crime and the economy are the big issues for African-Americans. Combined with the Hispanic shift, this could put over five percentage points in the Republican column, enough to tip a lot of close races to Republicans.

    The second trend that could push the results away from statistical tendencies is Biden’s very low approval ratings. Right now, Biden’s approval rating is 41.8% based on the average of 11 major polls. However, the polls contained in the average include some conducted as long ago as Aug. 15 (Marist) or Aug. 12 (NBC News) when Biden was riding high based on some legislative accomplishments.

    The more recent polls show Biden at 38% approval (Reuters, Aug, 30). So it is likely that Biden is in a real-time downtrend back toward the 39% level he held most of the summer.

    Based on these idiosyncratic variables, it seems reasonable to push the expectation of 241 Republicans and 189 Democrats to an adjusted result of 245 Republicans to 185 Democrats, a 34-seat gain for Republicans, leading to a 60-seat Republican majority.

    In summary, my forecast for the 2022 midterm House result as of now is: Republicans – 245 seats, Democrats – 190 seats.

    Forecasting the outcome in the Senate is both easier and harder than forecasting the House. It’s easier because there are fewer races and even fewer contests that are genuinely competitive. It’s harder because the smaller sample size makes it more difficult to use statistical methods. We have to go state by state and candidate by candidate to produce an accurate forecast.

    The Senate has 100 members, two from each state. The current split is 50 Democrats/independents and 50 Republicans. Under the Constitution, the president of the Senate, Kamala Harris (the vice president), can break a tie vote.

    This puts the Democrats in control of the Senate even with the 50/50 split.

    There are 35 Senate seats in play this election. The Republicans are at a slight disadvantage going in because they currently hold 21 of the 35 seats being contested, whereas the Democrats only have to defend 14 seats. The good news for Republicans is that 16 of the 21 seats they are defending are rated “Solid” or “Likely” to stay Republican by The Cook Political Report.

    The Democrats have nine out of 14 seats they are defending rated “Solid” or “Likely.” This means that only 10 of the 35 Senate seats in this election are truly competitive. Control of the Senate will come down to those 10. The Republicans and Democrats currently hold five of the competitive seats each.

    To control the Senate, either party has to hold their five competitive seats and take one from the other party. If you lose a seat, you have to pick up another just to stay even. It’s that close.

    My current best estimate is that Republicans will retain Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. Likewise, the Democrats should retain their seats in Colorado and New Hampshire. This means control of the Senate comes down to Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

    If that list seems familiar it should. Those were the same five states that were hotly contested in the 2020 presidential race. All five went for Biden. Although those remaining races are all close, I rate Nevada and Georgia as wins for Republicans.

    Those two wins represent a pickup of two Senate seats for Republicans since both are currently held by Democrat incumbents. I rate Arizona a win for Mark Kelly, which is a hold for the Democrats.

    Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are both extremely close, but right now one would have to rate those as wins for the Democrats. That’s a pickup of two for the Democrats since both seats are currently held by Republicans.

    If that forecast holds, we’re back to a 50-50 Senate. A few states would change from Democrat to Republican (Nevada and Georgia) or from Republican to Democrat (Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) but the total 50-50 split would be unchanged.

    I have one other forecast: The current forecast will change. They always do when you’re still two months away.

    We could see Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin tip Republican over the next two months. Georgia could remain in the Democratic column. All I can say is I’ll be watching closely and keeping you updated every step of the way.

    A prudent investor would keep an above-average allocation to cash, both to withstand the volatility from potential wild cards and to profit from attractive entry points on certain assets while others are losing fortunes.

    Strap in, it’s going to be a bumpy but fascinating ride.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 20:20

  • DOJ Denied Access To Trump Raid Docs After Judge Appoints Special Master
    DOJ Denied Access To Trump Raid Docs After Judge Appoints Special Master

    A special master has been appointed to act as a firewall between the Justice Department and materials seized during an Aug. 8 raid on former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida.

    In a pair of Thursday orders from federal district Judge Aileen Cannon, the DOJ’s motion to access a subset of classified records stored on the Trump property was denied, and a recently retired judge that both the DOJ and Trump’s team agreed on – recently retired Judge Raymond Dearie – will serve as special master.

    Pdf source, Highlights via The Last Refuge

    Raymond has until Nov. 30, 2022 to complete his review.

    Cannon struck down the DOJ’s request for a partial stay of an earlier motion on accessing the seized materials, after lawyers for the government argued that they should be able to review over 100 classified documents taken during the raid – as they are not covered by any claims of personal property or executive privilege.

    That said, Cannon sided with a DOJ request for Trump to pay the full cost associated with a special master.

    If the court were willing to accept the government’s representations that select portions of the seized materials are—without exception—government property not subject to any privileges, and did not think a special master would serve a meaningful purpose, the court would have denied plaintiff’s special master request,” wrote Cannon. “The court does not find it appropriate to accept the government’s conclusions on these important and disputed issues without further review by a neutral third party in an expedited and orderly fashion.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 20:00

  • We Need A Common Understanding Of What 'Capitalism' Means
    We Need A Common Understanding Of What ‘Capitalism’ Means

    Authored by John Bitzan & Clay Routledge via RealClear Wire,

    Almost every day, there is a news story or opinion piece blaming a societal problem on capitalism. A recent one blames capitalism for destroying art, citing Warner Brothers cancelling the release of Batgirl. While sometimes it seems that people are just looking for some kind of scapegoat, there continues to be deep skepticism about capitalism, especially among young AmericansWhen skeptics and advocates talk about capitalism, are we really speaking the same language when we use the word? Though some critics have a deep understanding of different economic systems, new evidence shows how many are confusing free markets with cronyism. This confusion hinders coherent policy discussions, as well as the future of economic freedom and flourishing.

    In what has been referred to as “the hockey stick of human prosperity,” there have been huge advances in human prosperity in the last 200 to 300 years after centuries where the world was extremely poor. To better understand why young adults are so skeptical of capitalism — despite the important role that free markets have played in enabling this prosperity — we conducted a survey of 2,000 students at 130 four-year universities and colleges across the U.S., examining how their conceptions of capitalism relate to their attitudes about it. 

    We found much disagreement among students about what is meant by capitalism. When presented with a free market definition (“property is privately owned, exchange is voluntary, and production and pricing of goods/services are determined by market forces”), a cronyism definition (“corporations utilize grants, special tax breaks, political connections, and special rules that favor them…”), and the option of “I’m not sure,” 49% chose the free market definition, while the remaining 51% chose cronyism (36%) or indicated being unsure (15%).

    This conceptual confusion seems to influence how young people view capitalism. Overall, only 23% of students have a positive view of it, compared to 38% with a negative view. However, among those who define capitalism as cronyism, only 6% have a positive view and 70% have a negative view. For those who define capitalism as free markets, 40% have a positive view and 19% a negative view.

    Moreover, the pessimistic views toward capitalism may be fostered by professors’ views. Of students reporting that professors have expressed views on capitalism, 62% say such views have been negative.

    As pointed out in a recent study by Peter G. Klein and several colleagues, confusing capitalism with cronyism may result in decisions and policies that are harmful to society. They point to other studies which link a number of societal problems often attributed to capitalism — poor child health, weak environmental protection, higher income inequality, poor infrastructure quality — to cronyism instead.

    They also point to an unvirtuous spiral that occurs as a result of such confusion. Policy responses that wrongly target market capitalism result in more government intervention in the economy, which creates even more opportunities and incentives for firms to engage in cronyism. This leads to additional harm and distrust in capitalism.

    Two recent examples illustrate this unvirtuous spiral. Recent supply chain disruptions are at least partially rooted in cronyism, with dockworkers unions fighting port automation for decades and lobbying various governments to prevent it, and with the Jones Act preventing non-U.S. owned, built, and crewed ships from transporting goods between U.S. waterway ports.  This has led to calls for “reshoring” with trade tariffs and corporate giveaways to bring supply chains “back home.” Not only do such policies harm consumers and taxpayers, they incentivize firms to engage in lobbying to make sure the “wrong” products are charged tariffs and the “right” ones receive subsidies — a recipe for more of the type of government favoritism that sours the reputation of capitalism. One needs to look no further than the tariffs imposed on steel, aluminum, and Chinese products by the Trump administration to see how they can encourage lobbying and harm small businesses.

    As another example, the important role played by cronyism in hindering the technological progress and institutions needed to combat climate change in developing countries has been ignored by those blaming capitalism for the problem. Policies for combatting climate change have amounted to favoring one technology over others through subsidies, banning other tech, and micromanaging which solution is best through regulations such as building codes. Again, this type of intervention necessarily favors some businesses over other, potentially more environmentally friendly ones, and invites the political lobbying that characterizes cronyism. A great example of this type of cronyism and its implications is the failed Solyndra, a company that went bankrupt shortly after being given $535 million in loans in the Obama administration, where political lobbying played a huge role. Such lobbying incentives are eventually blamed on “capitalism” and further intervention will be sought.

    There are many more such examples. To the extent that we fail to distinguish capitalism from cronyism and treat the wrong disease, we’ll get more cronyism and distrust of honest capitalism will only grow. And however one feels about market capitalism, if America is to continue as the world’s largest economy and a hub of experimentation, innovation, and opportunity, plenty of it will be necessary. This requires, at the very least, a common understanding.

    We believe this effort needs to start in universities, the institutions responsible for forming many of our future leaders. The results of our survey suggest there is much work to be done.

    John Bitzan is Menard Family Director of the Sheila and Robert Challey Institute for Global Innovation and Growth, North Dakota State University.

    Clay Routledge is Vice President of Research and Director of the Human Flourishing Lab at the Archbridge Institute.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 19:40

  • Tesla Mulling Chinese Retail Model Reset, Including Moving Showrooms Out Of Large Cities Like Beijing
    Tesla Mulling Chinese Retail Model Reset, Including Moving Showrooms Out Of Large Cities Like Beijing

    In a move we’re absolutely sure has nothing to do with rising tensions between the West and China and/or perpetual Covid lockdowns, Tesla is reportedly mulling a “reset” for its retail strategy in the country. 

    Tesla is “reevaluating the way it sells electric cars in China” and even considering closing some of its showrooms in malls in major cities like Beijing, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing Reuters. 

    Tesla appears to be looking for ways to cut its costs while, at the same time, addressing its years-long issue of not being able to provide adequate customer service. The idea for moving its retail locations is reportedly to put more emphasis on stores in less costly areas where it is easier to provide support.

    For now it appears that Tesla isn’t removing any of their footprint from China, just relocating it. The report says that the company is looking to add staff, with its China recruitment website showing more than 300 openings for service jobs this week. 

    Recall, it looks like business is back to usual in China, as we reported last week that Tesla had delivered 76,965 vehicles in China for August after its Shanghai factory returned to normal operations. 

    The automaker delivered 76,965 China-made vehicles in August, which was up 172.8% from the month prior. Data from the China Passenger Car Association showed that the automaker sold 34,502 cars in China and exported 42,463 vehicles. 

    The numbers come even as battery maker CATL had to shut down part of its operations due to power restriction constraints during the month, Reuters reported. CATL’s Yibin plant supplies battery cells to Tesla Shanghai. 

    The stark difference in month-over-month numbers comes as China’s Shanghai plant was down for a planned upgrade for most of July. Recall, deliveries in China had crashed -64.2% heading into the month of August. 

    We noted then that if the trend continued into August, there would be cause for alarm, but August’s numbers look as though the planned shutdowns are finally in the past. Production was halted to upgrade the factory’s Model 3 and Model Y lines.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 19:20

  • Locals In North Dakota Oppose Massive Corn Mill Project By Chinese Company
    Locals In North Dakota Oppose Massive Corn Mill Project By Chinese Company

    Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    One by one, residents opposed to a corn mill investment by a Chinese company with reputed ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) through its chairman, got up to chastise the mayor and city council of Grand Forks, North Dakota.

    You guys are the scariest people I know. You are willing to endanger this city, the people, the country, and this nation,” said Dennis Kadlec, an outspoken critic of the project.

    A sign opposing a corn mill in Grand Forks, N.D., stands near 370 acres recently annexed by the city for the project. Many residents don’t want the project in the city because the owner, Fufeng Group, has reputed ties to the Chinese Communist Party through its company chairman. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

    He believes city officials have ignored residents’ concerns over the project and the flag they serve.

    This is a republic. Please treat it as such,” Kadlec said.

    Jodi Carlson is lead organizer of the Concerned Citizens for Fufeng Project, a non-partisan grass roots group that opposes the increases presence of Chinese-owned businesses in Grand Forks, N.D. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

    Kadlec’s accusations of inaction and secrecy on the part of city officials seemed to resonate with other concerned citizens at the city council meeting on Sept. 6.

    The group views the corn mill as a potential Chinese spying operation and a threat to the environment and municipal resources.

    Some residents see divisions over the project worsening in a close-knit agricultural community of 56,000, where sugar beets and wheat—not corn—are king.

    The city of Grand Forks is not a significant producer of corn, either, straddling the Minnesota border about 75 miles south of Canada, where winter temperatures can drop to well below zero.

    So the question arises: why would a Chinese company build a corn mill in Grand Forks when harvest volumes are so low?

    Critics who fear Chinese espionage say one needs to look no further than Grand Forks Air Force Base, about 12 miles away. The base stores and tests the military’s sensitive drone, satellite, and surveillance technology.

    However, city officials supporting the corn mill see the project as an economic opportunity too good to pass up. As the most significant single capital investment in the city’s history, it promises 230 permanent high-paying jobs, higher corn prices for regional growers, and other long-term benefits.

    Fufeng USA, the American subsidiary of Fufeng Group, wants to build on 370 acres it acquired that would add millions in sales and property tax revenues and improve city infrastructure.

    The “wet corn” mill would employ thousands of workers during construction and, in operation, extract ingredients used to produce animal feed products for sale in the domestic market.

    At least on paper, the project looks and sounds good.

    What doesn’t sit well with project opponents is the parent company, Fufeng Group, which is based in Shandong Province in China. The company has reputed links with the CCP through its chairman and controlling shareholder, Li Xuechun.

    Many residents opposed to the corn mill also feel the city has been translucent in moving the project along, voting to annex land without proper notice to business abutters to sell to Fufeng USA.

    Some residents have felt so neglected by the local powers that Jodi Carlson and several others recently formed the Concerned Citizens of Fufeng Project in Grand Forks.

    The public group has nearly 3,000 followers on Facebook and vehemently opposes the corn mill project.

    Group meetings have become “very contentious,” Carlson told The Epoch Times, “primarily because we’re just tired. The city council continues to say they’ve answered our questions and haven’t. We still have a lot of questions.”

    One question is what Fufeng USA plans to do with 250 acres not listed in the development plan, Carlson said.

    We don’t know what’s going to happen with that. We think we have a right [to know], especially since it’s a foreign interest. We don’t think [the city council] vetted it properly. We have a lot of concerns.”

    Two U.S. Senators representing North Dakota have raised alarm bells over potential national security issues surrounding the Fufeng USA project amid building tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan.

    City officials reportedly vowed to stop the project should China invade Taiwan.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 19:00

  • Philadelphia 'Soda Tax' Completely Backfired: Study
    Philadelphia ‘Soda Tax’ Completely Backfired: Study

    A new study shows that Philadelphia’s ‘soda tax’ on sugary drinks completely backfired

    According to researchers from the University of Georgia conducted five years after city lawmakers imposed a 1.5c per ounce tax on sugary drinks, demand for sugary drinks did drop by around 31% – however consumers simply turned to other sweets, or traveled to nearby towns to buy soda according to UGA Today.

    People shopping for sodas outside city limits canceled out almost 40% of the decrease in sugar-sweetened beverage purchases.

    Additionally, the soda pop tax actually led to about a 4% increase in purchases of other high-sugar goods in Philadelphia and in neighboring towns. But compared to the sugar decrease from sodas in Philadelphia, additional sweetened food purchases offset an additional 40%.

    “Can we influence behavior through taxation? Yes, but only if you enact a policy at broader levels of government, such as at the state or national level that prevents people from cross-border shopping,” said the study’s lead author, Felipe Lozano-Rojas, an assistant professor in the School of Public and International Affairs.

    Using nearly four years of data from Nielsen Retail Scanner Data aggregates checkout scanner statistics from participating stores across the country, researchers analyzed over 804 million weekly reports on purchases of sugary foods and sugar-sweetened beverages.

    What’s more, the soda tax disproportionately affected low-income individuals, as such taxes always do.

    “You probably don’t need to run a complicated statistical analysis to know that if somebody charges you more, then you buy less,” said Lozano-Rojas. “But it’s a double-edged sword from the standpoint of who is going to carry the burden of that tax. Low-income groups are going to be disproportionately affected.”

    Previous research has shown people with lower socioeconomic status tend to spend a higher amount of their pay on sugar-sweetened beverages. And the tax burden hits them harder than people who can afford the additional cost to continue purchasing their favorite drink.

    Some experts may argue the taxes are working if they curb consumption and improve health. But there isn’t much definitive research on how soda taxes affect health outcomes in communities, Lozano-Rojas said. -UGA Today

    “If we were to subsidize healthier options, especially for these groups, the tax might work better,” said Lozano-Rojas. “Subsidizing water, making it more accessible, particularly in places where tap water is not drinkable, these are things that might make going with the healthier choice easier. I think this issue requires more of a magnifying glass into these populations to determine the causes driving excessive sugar-sweetened beverage consumption.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 18:40

  • States To Ban Gas-Powered Cars Despite Human And Environmental Cost Of Electric Vehicles
    States To Ban Gas-Powered Cars Despite Human And Environmental Cost Of Electric Vehicles

    Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    In Chile’s Salar de Atacama, locals watch helplessly as their ancestral lands wither and die, their precious water resources evaporating in salar brines.

    In the Democratic Republic of Congo, hope for a better life dissolves as well-funded Ugandan-led extremist groups force children as young as six into cobalt mines.

    Closer to home, Nevada’s Fort McDermitt Tribe and local ranchers fight to protect a sacred burial site and agricultural lands set to be sacrificed by Lithium Nevada, a mining company, in the coming days.

    Meanwhile, in California and other states, politicians like Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) pat themselves on the back for their “aggressive” environmental stance and boast that their gas-powered vehicle bans are leading “the revolution towards our zero-emission transportation future.”

    Miners at a cobalt cleaning site in Lualaba Province, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. (Northwestern Now)

    The Hidden Costs

    According to politicians like Newsom and President Joe Biden, electric vehicles are “zero-emission” because they use lithium-ion batteries—consisting of lithium, cobalt, graphite, and other materials—instead of gas.

    Thus, starting in 2035, California will ban gas-powered vehicle sales, while several other states plan to follow suit, citing the embargo as a “critical milestone in our climate fight,” on Twitter.

    Additionally, according to a statement from Biden, banning gas-powered vehicles will “save consumers money, cut pollution, boost public health, advance environmental justice, and tackle the climate crisis.”

    Disagreeing with such claims, John Hadder, director of the Great Basin Resource Watch, pointed out to The Epoch Times that “industrial” nations might benefit from the electric vehicle transition but it’s at the expense of others.

    Vice President Kamala Harris charges an electric vehicle in Prince George’s County, Md., on Dec. 13, 2021. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo)

    This expansion of [lithium] mining will have immediate consequences for front-line communities that are taking the ‘hit.’

    For example, Copiapó, the capital of Chile’s Atacama region, is the location of one of the world’s largest known lithium reserves.

    We used to have a river before that now doesn’t exist. There isn’t a drop of water,” Elena Rivera Cardoso, president of the Indigenous Colla community of the Copiapó commune, told the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC).

    She added that all of Chile’s water is disappearing because of the local lithium mine. “In all of Chile, there are rivers and lakes that have disappeared—all because a company has a lot more right to water than we do as human beings or citizens of Chile.”

    Brine pools from a lithium mine, that belongs to U.S.-based Albemarle Corp, is seen on the Atacama salt flat in the Atacama desert, Chile, on Aug. 16, 2018. (Ivan Alvarado/Reuters)

    In collaboration with Cardosa’s statement, the Institute for Energy Research reports that 65 percent of the area’s limited water resources evaporate in salar brines.

    That’s displacing indigenous communities who have called Atacama home for over 6,000 years because farmers and ranchers have cracked, dry soil, and no choice but to abandon their ancestral settlements, according to the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

    Mine Proposed in Northern Nevada

    Saying goodbye to an ancestral homeland as a local lithium mine destroys it is something the communities in Northern Nevada are fighting to avoid.

    The agricultural communities on either side of the pass are likely to be changed forever,” Hadder told The Epoch Times. “The [Thacker Pass mine] could affect their ability to farm and ranch in the area. The air quality will decrease … and increased water scarcity is likely.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 18:20

  • Pelosi Going To Armenia As Death Toll Rises In Azerbaijan Border Fighting
    Pelosi Going To Armenia As Death Toll Rises In Azerbaijan Border Fighting

    A tenuous ceasefire along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border appears to have held since it was enacted at 8pm local time (16:00 GMT) on Wednesday, but the death toll has risen in this biggest flare-up in fighting since the Nagorno-Karabakh war of 2020.

    As of Thursday, after two days of fierce shelling the total death toll stands at 176 soldiers killed, with Armenia saying 105 of its troops were killed, and Azerbaijan counting 71 deaths among its forces. Each side blames the other for starting the fresh clashes. 

    Nancy Pelosi meeting with Armenian officials in 2019.

    The United Nations praised the two sides reaching a ceasefire, with a statement saying, “The international community must remain fully committed to a peaceful settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and spare no effort to de-escalate the current tensions, bring the parties back to the negotiation table and help them achieve peace and stability in the region.”

    Politico is reporting that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will travel Armenia this weekend in a show of support for the country and to work toward ensuring a peace holds. She’s expected to meet with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Yerevan, following the G-7 Speakers’ Summit in Berlin. 

    She’s expected to travel with Armenian-American Congress member Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.). Politico observes that “It will be the speaker’s latest dramatic foreign trip following her contentious arrival in Taiwan last month. With the midterms approaching — and the possibility that she will lose the gavel if Republicans return to the majority — the belief in Washington is that Pelosi wants to cement her legacy as a champion of human rights, not only in the United States but around the world.”

    While citing two anonymous officials who confirmed plans for the trip, there hasn’t been official verification from either Pelosi nor Speier’s offices “due to longstanding security protocols.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Complicating matters regarding boiling border tensions, there are still several hundred Russian peacekeeping troops in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, as part of the settlement from the last round of fighting centered there. This peacekeeping mission is now in doubt, and Russia’s major base in Armenia territory is said to be on “high alert”. 

    Azerbaijan previously “necessary response measures” by military units stationed at the border on Wednesday just before a ceasefire took hold. That’s when Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Paruyr Hovhannisyan told Reuters “the clashes could escalate into a war – a second major armed conflict in the former Soviet Union while Russia’s military is focused on the invasion of Ukraine.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/15/2022 – 18:00

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Today’s News 15th September 2022

  • Whitehead: All The Ways In Which Our Rights Have Been Usurped
    Whitehead: All The Ways In Which Our Rights Have Been Usurped

    Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.”

    – Abraham Lincoln

    It’s easy to become discouraged about the state of our nation.

    We’re drowning under the weight of too much debt, too many wars, too much power in the hands of a centralized government, too many militarized police, too many laws, too many lobbyists, and generally too much bad news.

    It’s harder to believe that change is possible, that the system can be reformed, that politicians can be principled, that courts can be just, that good can overcome evil, and that freedom will prevail.

    So where does that leave us?

    Benjamin Franklin provided the answer. As the delegates to the Constitutional Convention trudged out of Independence Hall on September 17, 1787, an anxious woman in the crowd waiting at the entrance inquired of Franklin, “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?” “A republic,” Franklin replied, “if you can keep it.”

    What Franklin meant, of course, is that when all is said and done, we get the government we deserve.

    Those who gave us the Constitution and the Bill of Rights believed that the government exists at the behest of its citizens. It is there to protect, defend and even enhance our freedoms, not violate them.

    Unfortunately, although the Bill of Rights was adopted as a means of protecting the people against government tyranny, in America today, the government does whatever it wants, freedom be damned.

    “We the people” have been terrorized, traumatized, and tricked into a semi-permanent state of compliance by a government that cares nothing for our lives or our liberties.

    The bogeyman’s names and faces have changed over time (terrorism, the war on drugs, illegal immigration, a viral pandemic, and more to come), but the end result remains the same: in the so-called name of national security, the Constitution has been steadily chipped away at, undermined, eroded, whittled down, and generally discarded with the support of Congress, the White House, and the courts.

    A recitation of the Bill of Rights—set against a backdrop of government surveillance, militarized police, SWAT team raids, asset forfeiture, eminent domain, overcriminalization, armed surveillance drones, whole body scanners, stop and frisk searches, vaccine mandates, lockdowns, and the like (all sanctioned by Congress, the White House, and the courts)—would understandably sound more like a eulogy to freedoms lost than an affirmation of rights we truly possess.

    What we are left with today is but a shadow of the robust document adopted more than two centuries ago. Sadly, most of the damage has been inflicted upon the Bill of Rights.

    Here is what it means to live under the Constitution, twenty-plus years after 9/11 and with the nation just emerging from two years of COVID-19 lockdowns and mandates.

    The First Amendment is supposed to protect the freedom to speak your mind, assemble and protest nonviolently without being bridled by the government. It also protects the freedom of the media, as well as the right to worship and pray without interference. In other words, Americans should not be silenced by the government. To the founders, all of America was a free speech zone.

    Despite the clear protections found in the First Amendment, the freedoms described therein are under constant assault. Increasingly, Americans are being persecuted for exercising their First Amendment rights and speaking out against government corruption. Activists are being arrested and charged for daring to film police officers engaged in harassment or abusive practices. Journalists are being prosecuted for reporting on whistleblowers. States are passing legislation to muzzle reporting on cruel and abusive corporate practices. Religious ministries are being fined for attempting to feed and house the homeless. Protesters are being tear-gassed, beaten, arrested and forced into “free speech zones.” And under the guise of “government speech,” the courts have reasoned that the government can discriminate freely against any First Amendment activity that takes place within a so-called government forum.

    The Second Amendment was intended to guarantee “the right of the people to keep and bear arms.” Essentially, this amendment was intended to give the citizenry the means to resist tyrannical government. Yet while gun ownership has been recognized by the U.S. Supreme Court as an individual citizen right, Americans remain powerless to defend themselves against red flag gun laws, militarized police, SWAT team raids, and government agencies armed to the teeth with military weapons better suited to the battlefield.

    The Third Amendment reinforces the principle that civilian-elected officials are superior to the military by prohibiting the military from entering any citizen’s home without “the consent of the owner.” With the police increasingly training like the military, acting like the military, and posing as military forces—complete with heavily armed SWAT teams, military weapons, assault vehicles, etc.—it is clear that we now have what the founders feared most—a standing army on American soil.

    The Fourth Amendment prohibits government agents from conducting surveillance on you or touching you or encroaching on your private property unless they have evidence that you’re up to something criminal. In other words, the Fourth Amendment ensures privacy and bodily integrity. Unfortunately, the Fourth Amendment has suffered the greatest damage in recent years and has been all but eviscerated by an unwarranted expansion of governmental police powers that include strip searches and even anal and vaginal searches of citizens, surveillance (corporate and otherwise), and intrusions justified in the name of fighting terrorism, as well as the outsourcing of otherwise illegal activities to private contractors.

    The Fifth Amendment and the Sixth Amendment work in tandem. These amendments supposedly ensure that you are innocent until proven guilty, and government authorities cannot deprive you of your life, your liberty or your property without the right to an attorney and a fair trial before a civilian judge. However, in the new suspect society in which we live, where surveillance is the norm, these fundamental principles have been upended. Certainly, if the government can arbitrarily freeze, seize or lay claim to your property (money, land or possessions) under government asset forfeiture schemes, you have no true rights.

    The Seventh Amendment guarantees citizens the right to a jury trial. Yet when the populace has no idea of what’s in the Constitution—civic education has virtually disappeared from most school curriculums—that inevitably translates to an ignorant jury incapable of distinguishing justice and the law from their own preconceived notions and fears. However, as a growing number of citizens are coming to realize, the power of the jury to nullify the government’s actions—and thereby help balance the scales of justice—is not to be underestimated. Jury nullification reminds the government that “we the people” retain the power to ultimately determine what laws are just.

    The Eighth Amendment is similar to the Sixth in that it is supposed to protect the rights of the accused and forbid the use of cruel and unusual punishment. However, the Supreme Court’s determination that what constitutes “cruel and unusual” should be dependent on the “evolving standards of decency that mark the progress of a maturing society” leaves us with little protection in the face of a society lacking in morals altogether.

    The Ninth Amendment provides that other rights not enumerated in the Constitution are nonetheless retained by the people. Popular sovereignty—the belief that the power to govern flows upward from the people rather than downward from the rulers—is clearly evident in this amendment. However, it has since been turned on its head by a centralized federal government that sees itself as supreme and which continues to pass more and more laws that restrict our freedoms under the pretext that it has an “important government interest” in doing so.

    As for the Tenth Amendment’s reminder that the people and the states retain every authority that is not otherwise mentioned in the Constitution, that assurance of a system of government in which power is divided among local, state and national entities has long since been rendered moot by the centralized Washington, DC, power elite—the president, Congress and the courts.

    Thus, if there is any sense to be made from this recitation of freedoms lost, it is simply this: our individual freedoms have been eviscerated so that the government’s powers could be expanded.

    It was no idle happenstance that the Constitution opens with these three powerful words: “We the people.” As the Preamble proclaims:

    We, the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect Union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this CONSTITUTION for the United States of America.

    In other words, it’s our job to make the government play by the rules of the Constitution.

    We are supposed to be the masters and they—the government and its agents—are the servants.

    We the American people—the citizenry—are supposed to be the arbiters and ultimate guardians of America’s welfare, defense, liberty, laws and prosperity.

    Still, it’s hard to be a good citizen if you don’t know anything about your rights or how the government is supposed to operate.

    As the National Review rightly asks, “How can Americans possibly make intelligent and informed political choices if they don’t understand the fundamental structure of their government? American citizens have the right to self-government, but it seems that we increasingly lack the capacity for it.”

    Americans are constitutionally illiterate.

    Most citizens have little, if any, knowledge about their basic rights. And our educational system does a poor job of teaching the basic freedoms guaranteed in the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. For instance, a survey by the Annenberg Public Policy Center found that a little more than one-third of respondents (36 percent) could name all three branches of the U.S. government, while another one-third (35 percent) could not name a single one.

    A survey by the McCormick Tribune Freedom Museum found that only one out of a thousand adults could identify the five rights protected by the First Amendment. On the other hand, more than half (52%) of the respondents could name at least two of the characters in the animated Simpsons television family, and 20% could name all five. And although half could name none of the freedoms in the First Amendment, a majority (54%) could name at least one of the three judges on the TV program American Idol, 41% could name two and one-fourth could name all three.

    It gets worse.

    Many who responded to the survey had a strange conception of what was in the First Amendment. For example, a startling number of respondents believed that the “right to own a pet” and the “right to drive a car” were part of the First Amendment. Another 38% believed that “taking the Fifth” was part of the First Amendment.

    Teachers and school administrators do not fare much better. A study conducted by the Center for Survey Research and Analysis found that one educator in five was unable to name any of the freedoms in the First Amendment.

    Government leaders and politicians are also ill-informed. Although they take an oath to uphold, support and defend the Constitution against “enemies foreign and domestic,” their lack of education about our fundamental rights often causes them to be enemies of the Bill of Rights.

    So what’s the solution?

    Thomas Jefferson recognized that a citizenry educated on “their rights, interests, and duties”  is the only real assurance that freedom will survive.

    As Jefferson wrote in 1820: “I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers of our society but the people themselves; and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education. This is the true corrective of abuses of constitutional power.”

    From the President on down, anyone taking public office should have a working knowledge of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights and should be held accountable for upholding their precepts. One way to ensure this would be to require government leaders to take a course on the Constitution and pass a thorough examination thereof before being allowed to take office.

    Some critics are advocating that students pass the United States citizenship exam in order to graduate from high school. Others recommend that it must be a prerequisite for attending college. I’d go so far as to argue that students should have to pass the citizenship exam before graduating from grade school.

    Here’s an idea to get educated and take a stand for freedom: anyone who signs up to become a member of The Rutherford Institute gets a wallet-sized Bill of Rights card and a Know Your Rights card. Use this card to teach your children the freedoms found in the Bill of Rights.

    A healthy, representative government is hard work. It takes a citizenry that is informed about the issues, educated about how the government operates, and willing to do more than grouse and complain.

    As I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, “we the people” have the power to make and break the government.

    The powers-that-be want us to remain divided over politics, hostile to those with whom we disagree politically, and intolerant of anyone or anything whose solutions to what ails this country differ from our own. They also want us to believe that our job as citizens begins and ends on Election Day.

    Yet there are 330 million of us in this country. Imagine what we could accomplish if we actually worked together, presented a united front, and spoke with one voice.

    Tyranny wouldn’t stand a chance.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 23:40

  • Watch: US Army Conducts 'Drone Swarm' Exercise With Armed Quadcopters
    Watch: US Army Conducts ‘Drone Swarm’ Exercise With Armed Quadcopters

    While unmanned aerial vehicles such as the multi-million dollar General Atomics MQ-1 Predator are armed with missiles, a new generation of inexpensive “kamikaze” drones is reshaping the battlefield. 

    The US military worries that these low-cost and deadly-effective drones could shift the global strategic balance away from the US on the modern battlefield.

    To counter such emerging threats, the Army decided to conduct a field training exercise involving “a swarm of 40 quadcopters all equipped with cameras, MILES, and lethal munition,” tweeted the Commanding General of the National Training Center and Fort Irwin.

    The startling video (tweeted on Sunday evening) shows the quadcopters zooming by what appears to be a makeshift desert town. There was no confirmation on location though it could’ve been at the Fort Irwin training facility in southern California. There was also no confirmation of when the training exercise was conducted. 

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    “Drones will be as important in the first battle of the next war as artillery is today,” the Army’s Twitter account concluded. 

    Perhaps the Army has discovered the same quadcopters bought on Amazon have been powerful tools in the war against Russia in Ukraine. The weaponization of such drones is even more powerful as some have been turned into suicide drones. 

    The Pentagon has supplied Ukraine with over 700 Switchblade “kamikaze” military drones. The future of warfare appears to be clear to the Army: small suicide drones for precision strikes will be necessary on any modern battlefield. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 23:20

  • National Security Threat: China's Eyes In America
    National Security Threat: China’s Eyes In America

    Authored by Peter Schweizer via The Epoch Times,

    Chinese intelligence gathering in the US takes many forms and has different purposes. Most Americans are familiar with some of their means and tactics, but not with how widespread and persistent they are.

    Americans may know about the malware contained in that infernal TikTok app that their children use. They may know the Chinese military’s cyber-intelligence service was likely behind many of the largest hacks of Americans’ personal data that have ever occurred. They may know from the news how US defense and intelligence policy have sanctioned Chinese telecom giant Huawei, and counseled America’s allies to reject Chinese-architected implementations of 5G networking, due to evidence that China has planted backdoors in commercial networking equipment designed to allow the Communist regime in Beijing to conduct surveillance and cyber-espionage anywhere in the world.

    Do they know it extends to consumer-level drones?

    Cybersecurity expert Klon Kitchen, writing for The Dispatchrecently detailed the problem with DJI, the Chinese company whose consumer and commercial grade drones control nearly 90% of the market.

    These popular products are cost-effective, easy to fly and operate, and send every byte of data they gather to servers in China.

    For this reason, they are banned by the US military and Department of Homeland Security, though still used by the FBI and increasingly by local police as “eyes in the sky” during crime events.

    FBI use of DJI drones is especially ironic considering bureau director Christopher Wray has warned often of the dangers to western commerce posed by the Chinese, most recently in London.

    The excellent reporting on DJI by Kitchen tracks efforts by the company to lobby against passage of a bill called the American Security Drone Act (ASDA), now before Congress, to outlaw federal government use of DJI products entirely. What is the risk? Not only the data gathered by the drones themselves, but everything collected by the mobile app with which users control their drones and manage their DJI accounts. Like many other mobile applications, this includes a user’s contacts, photos, GPS location, and online activities.

    To repeat: Every DJI drone in the skies above America is as good as a hovering Chinese spy.

    Like other Chinese government-controlled companies such as Huawei and Hikvision, makers of the artificial intelligence systems used in facial recognition and in the repression of China’s Uyghur minority, DJI is adept at playing the Washington game. The company is engaged in a fierce lobbying effort to prevent passage of the ASDA bill. So fierce that they have enlisted police officers from local jurisdictions to come to Washington and lobby congressional staffers about how great DJI drones are for their cash-strapped local forces. As Kitchen points out, the ASDA bill is directed only towards a federal ban on these drones, but DJI lobbyists from firms like Squire Patton Boggs, Cassidy & Associates, and CLS Strategies are taking no chances. The company spent $2.2 million in lobbying efforts in 2020 and $1.4 million last year on lobbying activities, according to OpenSecrets.org.

    These lobbyists are using the classic argument that it would be wrong to ban the federal government’s use of our product because so many other people are using it. This is doubtless the dilemma currently facing the app stores of Apple and Google regarding the TikTok app, another Chinese product. The TikTok app has been identified by cybersecurity professionals as containing a keystroke logger, and both Apple and Google have been pressured by the Federal Communications Commission to remove it from their app stores. “Can we really ban something that so many people are happily using?” they must be asking themselves.

    Therein lies the heart of the Chinese approach. TikTok was a mobile device application that no one was asking for, yet it became an overnight sensation in most western countries. We really must acknowledge, and grudgingly admire, the brilliant insight shown by the app’s creator company, Chinese-government-controlled ByteDance, into the psyche of large numbers of young, western people. The TikTok app, pitched initially as a way to share and watch silly dance video clips, has been adopted by younger “woke” schoolteachers to “out” themselves as scheming, haranguing social justice warriors intent on smuggling sexual ideology into their classrooms and bragging about it.

    This adds some context to Republican Sen. Rob Portman’s (R-OH) exasperation at a Senate hearing about the ASDA legislation, where he said:

    “Again, given what the FBI has told us, what the Commerce Department has told us, what we know from reports, I can’t believe we have to write legislation to force US agencies to ban the use of Chinese-made drones, particularly where the servers are in China, where the Chinese government is a part owner and a supporter of this particular company.”

    The Chinese approach is to “capture” elite institutions and individuals in the US: politicians, leading universities, large pension funds, social media, and Hollywood among them. My latest book, Red Handed, documents this capture in the areas of politics, diplomatic and business consulting, Big Tech, academia, and on Wall Street. There is insight in the Soviet-era statement, attributed to Lenin, about capitalists “selling us the rope with which to hang them.” Yet, it is the Chinese that understood how to sell the rope at a good price.

    Much as they are doing with products such as solar panels, the Chinese realize that cornering the market in an area where reach equals access is critical to their long-term plans to dominate. Their pattern includes stealing technology they cannot create themselves and using any means available to aid in that theft. Therefore, every bit of access to information they can scour is of more value to them than the product used to get it.

    Understanding these patterns is crucial to recognizing that the Chinese do this to their own people as well. As Gordon Chang’s recent piece for the Gatestone Institute discusses, the Chinese Communist Party maintains tight control of Chinese people overseas through many different forms of what we may baldly call blackmail. The many stories of intimidation of Chinese students and academics in the US who speak up about human rights abuses by China, or in support for democracy in Hong Kong and Taiwanese independence, all demonstrate this.

    Universities have put up with this in exchange for foreign funds for decades. They are only recently being confronted by the costs of this indulgence. For example, the former chairman of Harvard University’s Chemistry and Chemical Biology Department was convicted by a federal jury for lying to federal authorities about his affiliation with the People’s Republic of China’s Thousand Talents Program and the Wuhan University of Technology (WUT) in Wuhan, China, as well as failing to report income he received from WUT.

    The Wilson Center, a bipartisan think tank in Washington, reported in 2017 that a small community of PRC students and diplomats have engaged in intimidation tactics ranging from intelligence gathering to financial retaliation. “A Preliminary Study of PRC Political Influence and Interference Activities in American Higher Education” examines PRC influence in American universities.

    It was just those sorts of concerns that led the Trump administration to create the “China Initiative” within the Justice Department in 2018. This effort generated plenty of convictions of Chinese nationals in the US for technology theft and other forms of industrial espionage. The Biden administration ended the program this year, citing concerns that a broader approach was needed and in response to lobbying by Asian American groups that it unfairly targeted scientists with connections to China. Further, Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen also said he heard concerns from the academic community that prosecutions of researchers for grant fraud and other charges was having a “chilling effect.”

    Be that as it may, China’s strategy has for years hinged on infiltration by some Chinese scientists and researchers working abroad in the US and other western nations, with threats against their Chinese relatives as leverage for them to do so. This will remain a counter-intelligence problem regardless of what the effort to expose it is called.

    It is all part of the pattern.

    Call it sabotage by remote control.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 23:00

  • US, Ukraine Are In Talks To Transfer Fighter Jets & Longer-Range Missiles
    US, Ukraine Are In Talks To Transfer Fighter Jets & Longer-Range Missiles

    The US and its allies are in talks over whether to send Ukraine more advanced weapons in the future, including fighter jets, US defense sources have said, according to the Financial Times. The Kharkiv counteroffensive has apparently emboldened Ukrainian officials to press Washington harder for more advanced and longer-range weapons, now that some degree of success in rolling back Russian forces can be demonstrated. 

    The idea is that if Ukraine’s forces can prove they’ve taken back significant territory with what defense systems the US has provided so far, they can ultimately make the case that the whole of the east and south is within their reach – and even the potential to liberate Crimea while they’re at it – if longer range and more advanced arms are made available. 

    US Army File image

    The Financial Times reports this week that active discussions between the US and Ukraine are underway concerning Kiev’s weapons wish list

    A senior US defense official said Washington and its allies were discussing Ukraine’s longer term needs, such as air defenses, and whether it might be appropriate to give Kyiv fighter aircraft in the “medium to longer term”. To date, the US and its allies have declined to do so.

    But interestingly and quite tellingly, the report immediately follows with the acknowledgement that Ukrainian leaders are perhaps naturally incentivize to exaggerate battlefield gains at this moment. Here’s more from the FT as the Pentagon offers a “cautiously optimistic” assessment of Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensives in the east and south

    Ukrainian military officials have said in recent days they have taken more than 3,000 sq km of terrain in what has become Moscow’s biggest military setback since it was forced to scrap plans to conquer Kyiv. But late on Monday night President Volodymyr Zelenskyy practically doubled those claims as Ukraine’s forces continued to advance.

    Something Ukraine has additionally long been asking for is longer-range missile systems. A Monday Wall Street Journal report detailed that Kiev is now requesting from the Pentagon the Army’s Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, a surface-to-surface missile system with the capability of reaching about 190 miles. This would be far and beyond the range of missiles transferred to Ukraine thus far in the conflict. 

    The Biden administration in the early months resisted sending longer range missiles, admitting its fears that doing so could draw the US and Russia into direct conflict – given longer range munitions means Ukrainian forces would have the capability of hitting inside Russian territory. This has already happened with Crimea, and even recently with bases inside Russia proper near the border.

    But now US defense officials are looking over a new strategy proposal and weapons request submitted by Valeriy Zaluzhny, the commander in chief of Ukraine’s force. WSJ details of the document:

    They argued that Russia has long-range cruise missiles that greatly outdistance the systems in the Ukrainian inventory. A turning point could come if the Ukrainians also had longer-range systems, they argued, specifically mentioning the ATACMS.

    The only way to radically change the strategic situation is, without a doubt, for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to launch several consecutive, and ideally, simultaneous counterattacks during the 2023 campaign,” they wrote.

    Currently, the HIMARS systems which are already being provided have a reported max range of 50 miles, and the US administration previously asserted Ukraine had given “guarantees” they wouldn’t be used to target Russian territory. 

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    Meanwhile, on Tuesday the White House previewed that yet another fresh arms package for Ukraine is likely to be announced in the coming days. This as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has pledged that NATO allies are ready to support the war against Russia for the “long haul”.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 22:40

  • 'Significant Proof' Air Force Discriminated Against Troops Seeking Religious Exemptions To Vaccine Mandate: Court
    ‘Significant Proof’ Air Force Discriminated Against Troops Seeking Religious Exemptions To Vaccine Mandate: Court

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Air Force members seeking religious exemptions from the U.S. military’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate have provided “significant proof” that the military branch has discriminated against them, a federal appeals court ruled on Sept. 12.

    A U.S. Air Force staff sergeant handles a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine at a clinic in Massachusetts on Feb. 16, 2021. (Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

    A U.S. district court in July blocked the mandate for thousands of Air Force members who remain unvaccinated and have had their religious exemptions denied or not acted upon. In response, the government asked for an emergency stay. When that was denied, the government went to the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit, arguing that the ruling was wrong.

    An appeals court panel said in its decision released Monday that plaintiffs had to provide significant proof that the Air Force had a policy to deny all requests for religious exemptions, and all indications are that they have.

    “To establish a general policy … the plaintiffs need not show that the Department rejects 100% of requests for religious exemptions. And the Department’s own statistics show that, as of May 23, 2022, it had rejected more than 99% of them,” U.S. Circuit Judge Raymond Kethledge, a George W. Bush appointee, wrote in the 11-page order.

    That the Department has granted only a comparative handful of religious exemptions, while granting thousands of medical and administrative ones, is itself at this stage of the case significant proof of discrimination,” he added.

    Kethledge was joined by Circuit Judges Eric Murphy and John K. Bush, both Trump appointees.

    Plaintiffs

    The plaintiffs are all members who sought religious exemptions and were deemed by chaplains to hold sincere religious beliefs, but the military rejected many of their requests anyways. The others haven’t received final decisions but expect to be rejected, based on the treatment of like-minded airmen.

    The group has said that evidence shows the military systemically denied requests for religious exemptions, denying federal law and the U.S. Constitution.

    This order by the Court of Appeals affirms that the Department of Defense and the Air Force violated religious free exercise rights of service members which is protected under the Religious Freedom Restoration Act and the First Amendment,” Mat Staver, founder and chairman of Liberty Counsel, which is representing the plaintiffs, said in a statement.

    “This is a great victory for religious freedom, especially for these Air Force service members who love God and love America. These mandates will continue to crumble one by one in the courts,” he added.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 22:20

  • Can This Lawsuit Overturn California's 3D-Printed Gun Ban?
    Can This Lawsuit Overturn California’s 3D-Printed Gun Ban?

    In response to the recent signing of AB 1621 into law in California by Governor Gavin Newsom, Pioneers of the 3D Printed Gun, Defense Distributed has filed a pivotal lawsuit.

    This lawsuit, Defense Distributed v. Bonta, could set a precedent for regulating privately made firearms, also known as “Ghost Guns.” 

    AB 1621 criminalizes the purchase, possession, and use of CNC machines & 3D printers to make a firearm or firearm parts. Defense Distributed’s lawsuit challenges the law under the recent Supreme Court decision, NYSRPA v. Bruen.

    In Bruen, the Supreme Court ruled that Second Amendment challenges must be rooted in the amendment’s text, informed by history. In the same ruling, the court struck down the means-end scrutiny test often used by lower courts to uphold State level gun control laws. 

    Defense Distributed claims that there is no historical tradition of regulating the tools or parts used to make private arms. This means there is no historical precedent for California’s ban on CNC Machines & 3D Printers.

    The Vice President of the Second Amendment Foundation Alan M. Gottleib had this to say: 

    “What we’re talking about is a milling process, which is common in modern manufacturing of a wide range of products, including firearm frames and receivers. Despite the long-standing tradition of personal firearms manufacture by private citizens, California has now criminalized the process.”

    Additionally, as part of the lawsuit, Defense Distributed also addresses another California law: SB1327.

    SB1327 makes any person who challenges California’s gun laws in court liable to pay the state’s attorney’s fees at any stage of the litigation. It’s a law that the American Civil Liberties Union described as using “flawed logic.” 

    “California responds to the historic Bruen decision by 1) banning your right to make a gun, and 2) booby-trapping their state courts for anyone who’d dare to ask for it back,” explained Cody Wilson, Founder of Defense Distributed, “Yet another example of liberals shredding the 1st Amendment to deny the 2nd.”

    Defense Distributed has an established track record of winning similar cases. In 2018 the Justice Department settled a case with Defense Distributed (Defense Distributed v. United States Department of State), resulting in the publishing of 3D-printed firearms files online.

    Defense Distributed & The Second Amendment Foundation are seeking a Federal Court Injunction against the enforcement of the laws (AB 1621 & SB1327). 

    Here’s Defense Distributed’s lawsuit against California: 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 22:00

  • "It's A Horror Show": Bill Gross' "Short Of A Lifetime" Seven Years Later
    “It’s A Horror Show”: Bill Gross’ “Short Of A Lifetime” Seven Years Later

    By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets live reporter and analyst

    Bill Gross famously remarked in 2015 that bunds represented the short of a lifetime. He was seven years too early.

    To watch German bonds this year has been like witnessing a horror show. Yet, we are only nearing intermission — meaning there is far worse to emerge in the months ahead.

    The European Central Bank raised rates by an emphatic 75 basis points last week and flagged that there was more to come, spurring traders to factor in about 170 basis points of additional tightening. Markets expect the euro-area deposit rate to top out at around 2.35% in the current cycle.

    Even so, that may be underestimating the work required of the ECB to curb inflation.

    A crucial piece of calculus will be to work out where the elusive, unobservable neutral rate is for the ECB. Given a lack of inflation before the pandemic, the euro area’s r* was widely estimated to be between 1% and 2%.

    However, in the post-pandemic world that has completely upended the region’s inflation outlook, a nominal neutral rate would perforce be higher than its 2% target assuming that the ECB targets a neutral real rate of at least zero. In fact, given that HICP is currently running at almost 9%, it may be argued that the short-term neutral nominal rate is somewhere between 2.50% and 3%.

    In other words, it is possible that the ECB may raise rates all the way to around 3% should inflation prove to be stubbornly high in the coming quarters, with President Christine Lagarde having commented in May that “a progressive further normalization of interest rates toward the neutral rate will be appropriate.” According to the ECB’s own projections, inflation doesn’t converge to its 2% target even in 2024.

    The benchmark policy rate for the euro area implied by the well-known Taylor Rule is, in fact, around 3.40%. While it may seem unlikely that the ECB will raise rates that high in the current cycle, the rule highlights the scale of the challenge the monetary authority faces. More importantly perhaps, it shows that risks are skewed to the upside.

    All the above mean that two-year German bonds, whose yields have already surged almost 200 basis points this year, are not done with the phenomenal selloff. In fact, the yield may ascend to 2.50% and beyond by the middle of next year should the ECB continue with its tightening as priced by the markets.

    In turn, yields on German 10-year bunds — now around 1.70% after soaring more than 180 basis points this year, may approach around 2.30%, with the lower peak for the longer maturity predicated on an inversion of the yield curve in sympathy with expected weakness in the euro-area economy.

    Given the outlook for the ECB’s rate trajectory, there’s still plenty more downside on German bonds. Bill Gross’s portfolio may be up for it this time around.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 21:40

  • US Military Introduces Exoskeleton Suit For Soldiers
    US Military Introduces Exoskeleton Suit For Soldiers

    The US Army is about to receive a lightweight, unpowered exoskeleton suit called the Soldier Assistive Bionic Exosuit for Resupply (SABER), which can increase the strength and endurance of soldiers, DEVCOM Army Public Affairs Office said in a press release. 

    SABER weighs just three pounds and is a harness that soldiers strap around their shoulders and legs. All a soldier has to do to activate the suit is press a button on the left shoulder. When activated, the exoskeleton suit reduces stress on soldiers’ backs by more than 100 pounds while lifting all sorts of heavy items, such as ammo boxes, artillery rounds, and .50 caliber machine guns. Testing showed that most soldiers had a 60% increase in endurance while wearing the suit. 

    Researchers at Vanderbilt designed SABER and worked with soldiers in the 101st Airborne Division to test exoskeleton suits in heavy-lifting field scenarios. The exosuit addresses the need to reduce injury and fatigue, which are critical to combat readiness. 

    “We spent the first few months focused on interviewing, observing, and spending time with Soldiers.

    “We didn’t try to create Iron Man — a complex, full-body, rigid, unrealistic suit. Instead, we started by deeply understanding Soldier needs to develop a lightweight, low-profile, non-powered wearable tool that helps provide much-needed assistance without slowing Soldiers down or interfering with other operational tasks,” said Dr. Karl Zelik, associate professor of mechanical engineering, Vanderbilt University.

    In the last five years, we’ve kept readers abreast with the Army’s development of exoskeleton suits, including Army Tests New ‘AI-Controlled-Exoskeleton’ Super-Soldier and Army Starts Testing “Ironman-Like” Exoskeleton For Future Hybrid Wars

    SABER received high marks after 90% of soldiers who wore the suits after operational field testing in May said they would perform their duties much better. 

    Production of the suits will start in late 2022 by HeroWear, a Nashville-based industrial exosuit manufacturer. The goal is for hundreds of soldiers to be utilizing the suits in 2023. 

    We have noted the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) wants ‘Ironman-like’ suits on the modern battlefield

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    Maybe a real-life version of Marvel’s Tony Stark jet suit will be fielded within this decade…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 21:20

  • Zelensky Involved In Car Crash, No Serious Injuries
    Zelensky Involved In Car Crash, No Serious Injuries

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s car collided with another vehicle early Thursday after a battlefield visit, but he was not seriously injured, his spokesman said.

    Zelenskyy was returning to Kyiv from the Kharkiv region, where he visited troops in the recaptured city of Izium. A passenger vehicle collided with the president’s motorcade in the Ukrainian capital, his spokesman, Sergii Nikiforov, said in a Facebook post.

    The driver of the other vehicle received first aid from Zelenskyy’s medical team and was hospitalized. Medics examined the president, who suffered no serious injuries and was not taken to a hospital, Nikiforov wrote. He did not specify what injuries Zelenskyy might have suffered.

    The spokesman added that the circumstances of the accident are under investigation.

    The Ukrainian president was accompanied by French celebrity Bernard Henri-Levy.

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    Zelenskyy was late in posting the nightly video address that he has given during the war, possibly because of the car accident, the AP reported.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 21:05

  • Ted Cruz Calls To Defund "Biden's Army Of IRS Agents"
    Ted Cruz Calls To Defund “Biden’s Army Of IRS Agents”

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

    Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has called on his Republican colleagues in Congress to block funding for what he described as “Biden’s army of IRS agents” that the GOP has warned would be used to target Americans earning less than $400,000 a year.

    Cruz made the remark in a Sept. 13 statement on social media, which came as President Joe Biden celebrated the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes nearly $46 billion in new funding for IRS enforcement out of the $80 billion or so total funding boost to the tax agency.

    “Every single Republican should commit to not funding Biden’s army of IRS agents,” Cruz said in the statement.

    While Democrats have portrayed the Inflation Reduction Act as an anti-inflationary measure that would lower the cost of healthcare, prescription drugs, and energy, Republicans have argued it would lead to higher energy prices and aggressive IRS audits.

    The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) building is seen in Washington on Sept. 28, 2020. (Erin Scott/Reuters)

    In an interview on Fox News in which he elaborated on his position, Cruz argued that the extra funding for the tax agency should instead be used to stem the flow of illegal immigrants into the United States.

    “Every single Republican ought to say ‘we will not vote to fund these 87,000 new IRS agents, we’re not going to fund Biden’s army to harass Americans and we’re going to take that money and put it on our southern border to secure our border,‘” Cruz told the outlet.

    Republicans have argued that part of the IRS funding boost would be used to hire 87,000 new IRS agents and that small businesses and Americans making less than $400,000 would be targeted with tax audits.

    Higher Audit Rates?

    Seeking to counter that view, the Biden administration has insisted that people making less than $400,000 a year won’t see higher IRS audit rates.

    Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently insisted Republican claims that tax auditors will target lower- and middle-income Americans at higher rates are politically motivated falsehoods.

    “I direct that any additional resources—including any new personnel or auditors that are hired—shall not be used to increase the share of small business or households below the $400,000 threshold that are audited relative to historical levels,” Yellen said in an Aug. 10 letter to IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig.

    “This means that, contrary to the misinformation from opponents of this legislation, small business or households earning $400,000 per year or less will not see an increase in the chances that they are audited.”

    U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks on the state of the U.S. economy during a press conference at the Department of Treasury in Washington, on July 28, 2022. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

    Rettig, too, has insisted that the tax agency would “absolutely not” be increasing audit scrutiny on small businesses or middle-income Americans “relative to recent years,” according to the IRS chief’s letter to members of the Senate on Aug. 4 (pdf).

    Yellen’s and Rettig’s position that audit rates wouldn’t rise for those making less than $400,000 has been countered by Rachel Greszler, senior research fellow at the Grover M. Hermann Center.

    In a recent op-ed for The Heritage Foundation, Greszler wrote that “despite the Biden administration’s claims, it’s almost certain that households making less than $400,000 a year would face increased audits” under the Inflation Reduction Act.

    “And despite estimates from official congressional scorekeepers that the Schumer-Manchin-Biden tax increase indeed would raise taxes on those Americans, the administration has doubled down on the claim,” she added.

    Congressional Republicans on Sept. 12 introduced a bill seeking to prevent the IRS from using the $80 billion cash infusion to squeeze more revenue from Americans earning less than $400,000 a year.

    “Democrats needed billions to pay for their progressive Green New Deal climate-change policies in their bill, and their gimmicks and games are going to worsen our economic tailspin and higher costs for taxpayers in all income levels,” Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), co-sponsor of the bill, said in a statement.

    The bill (pdf) seeks to codify into law that none of the $80 billion in additional IRS funding may be used to increase audit rates on small businesses and taxpayers making under $400,000 a year.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 21:00

  • Anti-Green Blowback: T. Rowe Says "Increasing Difficult To Find Credible" ESG Bonds
    Anti-Green Blowback: T. Rowe Says “Increasing Difficult To Find Credible” ESG Bonds

    Some money managers are waking up to Wall Street’s ESG scam meant for green-minded investors who pretended to care about the environment but had found a quick and efficient way of fast-tracking gains. We’ve called this scam out during the ESG boom days early in the pandemic (see from Feb 2020 Behold The “Green” Scam” and from April 2020 “The Fraud That Is ESG Strikes Again: Six Of Top 10 ESG Funds Underperform The S&P500).

    Now Matt Lawton, T. Rowe Price Group Inc.’s sector portfolio manager in the Fixed Income Division, has come out in an interview, slamming sustainability-linked bonds, or SLBs. He said these green corporate bonds are examples of the most “egregious behavior” by Wall Street banks and companies who take advantage of skyrocketing demand for green investments. 

    “It’s becoming increasingly difficult to find credible SLBs,” Lawton said in an interview quoted by Bloomberg. “The banks are pitching these structures really hard so I definitely approach them with a healthy degree of skepticism.”

    Companies have been rushing to issue SLBs to exploit cheaper borrowing costs due to the high velocity of money flowing into ESG investment funds. Sales of the bonds soared to a record $110 billion in 2021, and Moody’s ESG Solutions predicts $150 billion by the end of the year. 

    The Baltimore-based investment management firm with $1.4 trillion of assets under management is the latest heavyweight in the financial community to speak out against SLBs. Last year Nuveen, a Chicago-based asset manager, said there were issues with the bonds and understanding of how the use of proceeds was deployed.

    “The banks are trying to structure them in such a way that is attractive for the issuer and right now investors are falling over themselves to buy these bonds. I don’t know how much discernment is actually happening on the investor side,” Lawson said. 

    Lawton noted the absurdity behind some SLBs. He pointed out UK-based grocery-store chain Tesco Plc’s green bonds that were priced in January 2021. The company raised 750 million euros in an 8.5-year bond to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 60% through 2025-26, though even before the deal, Tesco achieved a 50% reduction in emissions. 

    Lawton said the enforcement mechanisms behind SLB deals are lacking. Here are other examples of companies taking advantage of SLBs with call features that allow them to circumvent green goals via exercising call options:

    For example, Level 3 Communications Inc.’s $900 million SLB deal, which also priced in January 2021, can be repurchased from investors in January 2024, before any penalties for not meeting the sustainability targets even kick in. Level 3 was acquired in 2017 for $34 billion by communications service provider Lumen Technologies Inc. (formerly known as CenturyLink).

    Lumen’s global issues director Mark Molzen said in an emailed response that a call feature is common in these sort of instruments and a matter of financial prudence for any issuer to manage their interest rate exposure and balance sheet flexibility over time. 

    “The fact that we were able to successfully issue sustainability notes without having to forego these sort of basic features shows the natural demand for these sorts of instruments,” Molzen added.

    Chemicals firm Nobian Finance BV also sold an SLB that’s callable before the targeted goals, meaning the company could evade any potential penalty simply by exercising the option to repurchase the securities.

    In its emailed response, Nobian said that sustainability is one of its business priorities and the fact that it pays back debt at specific dates has “no impact on our commitment to reach our sustainability targets and our efforts to report transparently about our progress on an annual basis.” –Bloomberg 

    In June, the International Capital Market Association, which sets voluntary regulations in the ESG debt market, updated guidelines for issuing SLBs after it became evident transparency issues persist. 

    Lawton added the high demand for SLBs allows Wall Street banks to water down ESG targets for corporations:

    “The banker could theoretically say to their issuer, ‘Here are the bare minimum targets you need,’ and the market will accept it,” he added.

    ESG-related bond sales have been a boon for Wall Street, and many banks raked billions of dollars in advising and underwriting fees: It’s big business disguised as ‘saving the planet.’  

    Wall Street’s ESG craze is nothing more than a scam. Another investor, Vivek Ramaswamy, who authored the book “Woke, Inc.” has argued that business and politics should remain sequestered from one another and calls on corporations to slow spending on their energy transition and environmental plans. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 20:40

  • Anthony Fauci: From AIDS To COVID-19, A Pharma Love Story
    Anthony Fauci: From AIDS To COVID-19, A Pharma Love Story

    Opinion authored by Lorenzo Puertas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    After forty-eight years of leading the U.S. government’s responses to infectious diseases, Dr. Anthony Fauci recently announced his plans to retire at the end of the year. His story warrants a closer look for what it tells us about American politics, business, and health care.

    For decades before his recent fame, Fauci has been a medical researcher credited with important new understandings of the human immune response, particularly in HIV and AIDS. He also helped develop therapies for several previously fatal diseases, including a treatment of vasculitis which turned a 98 percent mortality rate into a 93 percent survival rate.

    For most of his career, he has been the world’s most-cited researcher on AIDS and infectious diseases. He has received many awards, including the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

    Ironically, Fauci has also presided over a decades-long decline in the overall health of American citizens. During his time in public health, a great number of chronic illnesses have become commonplace. Food allergies, autoimmune diseases, and cancer now affect more than half of American children. Autism, once rare, now affects 1 in 44 children.

    National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci testifies during a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor, Health, and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies hearing, on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 17, 2022. (Shawn Thew/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

    A Lifetime in Public Health

    Anthony Fauci was born in Brooklyn in 1940, the son of a pharmacist. Pharmacy was the family business, and both his mother and sister worked in his father’s shop beneath their apartment. As a young man, Fauci studied medicine at Cornell University, graduating first in his class. After his residency in 1966, he took a research job at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and he has worked for the U.S. government ever since.

    In his five decades in public health, Fauci has advised every President since Ronald Reagan. Since 1984 he has been the head of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Disease (NIAID), one of 27 institutes within the NIH, given the mission of researching and preventing infectious, immunologic, and allergic diseases.

    For many Americans, Fauci has been the trusted face of the U.S. government response to the pandemic. It was his confident explanations, both to the public and to policymakers, which led to the use of lockdowns, business closures, masking, and vaccines as the response to the virus.

    His many critics see a different Anthony Fauci—a bureaucrat who seems to have made a career of putting politics and corporate profits above public health.

    “Dr. Fauci has shaped the American medical world,” said Mary Holland, President of Children’s Health Defense, in an interview with The Epoch Times. “He’s moved American health institutions, NIH in particular, to a very intertwined relationship with the pharmaceutical industry.”

    Holland’s nonprofit organization, chaired by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., has been a prominent critic of Dr. Fauci’s policies—particularly the mass vaccination of American citizens.

    Censorship and Control

    Dr. Fauci and his NIAID have played a very dark role in COVID,” Holland said. “The level of propaganda we have lived through in the last two years is unprecedented in my lifetime. I lived in the Soviet Union after law school, fighting for human rights and working against government propaganda and censorship. And now we are living through that in the United States.”

    According to Holland, Fauci is the key player in the U.S. government’s efforts to control all information relating to the pandemic and the virus. “The documents are coming out that show that the government has been censoring us, suppressing factual information that relate to this virus and the pandemic.”

    Even criticism of Fauci has been censored, says Holland. “Robert Kennedy’s new book, ‘The Real Anthony Fauci’ has been suppressed at every turn,” she said. The 2021 book takes a hard look at Fauci’s career and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Kennedy has found it almost impossible to promote his book.

    “No major publication in the country would review the book,” said Holland. “The New York Times would not include it on their bestseller list, and he [Kennedy] was not invited on any major media platform, except for Tucker Carlson and The Epoch Times. The level of censorship has been astonishing.”

    Kennedy isn’t the only one censored. For two years, mainstream media outlets have ignored the scientists who have questioned Fauci’s views. These scientists have seen their ideas rejected (or later retracted) by medical journals, denounced by government officials, and censored by social media platforms.

    Fauci has been candid about his suppression of dissent. “Attacks on me, quite frankly, are attacks on science,” Fauci told CNBC in a June 2021 interview.

    In May, the attorneys general for Missouri and Louisiana filed a lawsuit against President Joe Biden and other White House officials, accusing them of violating the First Amendment by colluding with social media giants to suppress information about the pandemic. According to recently released court documents, the Biden administration worked so closely with social media that Facebook head Mark Zuckerberg gave Fauci his personal phone number when the crackdown on COVID-19 information began.

    But why this need for control? What information needed to be covered up? According to Holland, it’s the role that Fauci may have played in creating, and prolonging, this pandemic.

    The P4 laboratory (L) on the campus of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, on May 27, 2020. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)

    “By all appearances they have tried to cover up their role in funding lethal gain of function research in China,” said Holland. “They have also suppressed the use of lifesaving early treatments like ivermectin and hydroxycholoroquine, and they have suppressed valuable research into preventive measures that could have saved countless lives.”

    The result, says Holland and other critics, is a dark period in American history.

    Fauci’s Pandemic?

    Starting in early 2020, Americans faced unprecedented government intrusion in their lives. Business and school closures, lockdowns, mask mandates—and the man behind these government policies has been Anthony Fauci. In countless interviews and press conferences, Fauci positioned himself as the one true source of correct COVID-19 information and guidance.

    Emergency orders at the federal, state, and local levels were based on Fauci’s opinions. Fauci himself took credit for the policy of lockdowns, saying in October 2020, “I recommended to the president that we shut the country down. That was a very difficult decision because I knew it would have very serious economic consequences.”

    “Anthony Fauci is clearly at the very center of all things COVID,” Holland said. “And he has been in charge of controlling the information about the pandemic.”

    From the very beginning, when many scientists were pointing to a lab origin for this virus,” said Holland, “Anthony Fauci put a stop to that important debate.” Despite the discovery of NIAID’s funding of gain-of-function research on coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Fauci continues to say that the virus likely has a natural origin.

    A similar thing happened with scientific opposition to Fauci’s policies. The Great Barrington Declaration, written in October 2020 and signed by over 60,000 doctors and scientists, opposed lockdowns and advocated a new policy of protecting only the most vulnerable populations while allowing the rest to live freely and develop natural immunity.

    Fauci called the Declaration “ridiculous” and “very dangerous,” and led a campaign to attack the authors and signatories, instead of their ideas.

    It has been remarkable,” Holland said, “to see one of the most influential figures in American life purposely suppressing truthful information—about a lab leak, about scientists who said there should be no lockdowns, about the value of masks and the risks of vaccines.”

    “In the COVID response we saw extraordinary corruption,” said Holland. “The origin of the virus was covered up. Important treatments were suppressed. And vaccines were authorized, and mandated, on inadequate science.”

    Ivermectin tablets packaged for human use. (Natasha Holt/The Epoch Times)

    Suppression of Cures

    One of the most astonishing aspects of Fauci’s leadership during the pandemic has been his strong opposition to any potential treatment. In two years, neither Fauci nor any U.S. government agency has published a single treatment protocol for COVID-19 patients.

    In contrast, China had a treatment protocol online by mid-March of 2020. The result of an organized collection of data from hundreds of hospitals treating thousands of patients, the Chinese protocol included simple solutions like saline nasal lavage and antiseptic mouthwash to reduce viral loads, and cheap drugs like zinc, Pepcid, chloroquine, and antibiotics.

    As of this writing, the United States still has no official treatment protocol. And no protocols have been proposed by any major American university or research hospital. Yet every American doctor who has tried to publish one has been quickly censored and ridiculed.

    Dr. Peter McCullough knows this firsthand. The author of the protocol that became the most downloaded medical paper of 2020, McCullough was among the first American doctors to develop, test, and publish a successful treatment protocol, resulting in an 85 percent reduction in hospitalizations and death among his patients.

    A medical doctor and author of over 600 peer-reviewed research articles, McCullough at first had no thought of developing his own treatment plan. But he soon became alarmed at the government’s failure to provide treatment advice to America’s doctors.

    By May 2020, McCullough began taking action. He quickly set up a network of doctors to share information about effective treatments—something Fauci never did.

    For his efforts, he found himself sued by Baylor University, had his Wikipedia page re-written to label him a source of “COVID misinformation”, and had his reputation attacked in print and online. All while major medical institutions did nothing to find a treatment.

    “They didn’t even try,” McCullough is quoted as saying in “The Real Anthony Fauci.” “Harvard, John Hopkins, Duke, you name it. There wasn’t an ounce of original research coming out of America to fight COVID—other than vaccines.”

    Across the country, Dr. Pierre Kory was fighting the same battle. The co-founder of the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance (FLCCC), Kory and a team of doctors were quickly developing their own protocol and putting it online. Like McCullough, Kory had discovered the effectiveness of ivermectin, hydroxycholoroquine, and a number of other inexpensive and easily available drugs.

    Kory testified twice to the U.S. Senate explaining the success of his treatment protocol. He also submitted a formal paper to the NIH, which quickly dismissed the results as “insufficient data” lacking proper clinical trials. Another research paper explaining the protocol was retracted by the journal Frontiers in Pharmacology due to “unsupported claims”.

    The efficacy of some of these drugs… is almost miraculous. We could have stopped the pandemic in its tracks in the Spring of 2020,” said Kory. “Yet Dr. Fauci refused to promote any of these interventions. It’s not just that he made no effort to find effective off-the-shelf cures—he aggressively suppressed them.”

    “You had Birx, Fauci, and Redfield doing press conferences every day,” Kory said in an interview. “And not one of them ever treated a COVID patient or worked in an emergency room or ICU. They knew nothing.”

    “Dr. Fauci’s suppression of early treatments,” said Kory, “will go down in history as having caused the death of half a million Americans.”

    But why would Anthony Fauci suppress effective treatments? Why attack doctors trying to find a solution? According to Robert Kennedy, it might be because safe and effective treatments for COVID-19 would make the new vaccines unnecessary.

    Successful treatments aren’t just a marketing challenge for the vaccine manufacturers—they’re a legal obstacle, too. Once a successful treatment for COVID-19 is established, it becomes much less likely that the FDA will grant Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) to new vaccines and new drugs. Under federal law, there must be no approved alternative way of treating or preventing a disease before authorizing an EUA.

    The EUA under which the experimental vaccines were given to millions of Americans would never have been granted if COVID-19 was known to be an easily treatable disease.

    In “The Real Anthony Fauci”, Robert Kennedy writes, “His bizarre and inexplicable actions give credence to the suspicions held by many Americans that Dr. Fauci is working to prolong the epidemic in order to impose expensive patented drugs and vaccines on a captive population.”

    AIDS

    COVID-19 isn’t the first time that Anthony Fauci has been accused of using public policy to benefit big pharma corporations. Forty years ago, at the height of the AIDS crisis in America, many AIDS activists called Anthony Fauci a sellout to the drug companies.

    “You are responsible for all government funded AIDS treatment research,” said activist Larry Kramer in an open letter to Fauci in the San Francsico Examiner in 1988. “You are part of a government bureaucracy that values thriving pharmaceutical company entrepreneurism over the health of people with HIV.”

    Kramer’s criticism: instead of focusing on improving patients’ health, Fauci’s only answer to AIDS was the development of new drugs. “How long will it take you to start focusing on the immune system, how to boost it and how to prevent the opportunistic infections that are killing people with AIDS? Still, you give your blessing to clinical trials of highly profitable toxins…”

    “You are a pill-pushing pimp that cooperates with drug companies in forcing dangerous concoctions down the throats of a desperate community,” wrote Kramer. “AIDS drugs are not sold to help people, they are sold to make a profit.”

    White House Chief Medical Adviser on Covid-19 Dr. Anthony Fauci at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in Bethesda, Md., on Feb. 11, 2021. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

    Conflicts of Interest

    Despite the criticism Fauci endured, the AIDS crisis produced the most important opportunity of his career: using NIAID to develop, and profit from, new drugs. His collaboration with pharmaceutical companies quickly grew into a billion-dollar business.

    The 1980 Bayh-Dole Act allowed NIAID and government scientists like Fauci to directly profit from drug development. Under the law, NIAID was now allowed to file patents on the new drugs that their research was creating, and then license those drug patents back to pharmaceutical companies. Individual government scientists could also put their names on patents and collect royalties.

    This created a new income stream for Anthony Fauci: royalties on the sales of all drugs developed through NIAID-funded research. Drug development very quickly became the focus of Fauci’s NIAID, and millions of dollars in royalties started to pour in.

    According to a 2006 investigation by the Associated Press, NIH and NIAID were concealing millions of dollars in royalties paid not just to the agencies, but to individual officials including Fauci, with little regard for the ethical and legal conflicts of interest. This information was not made public until the Associated Press obtained the information under the Freedom of Information Act.

    In early 2022, OpenTheBooks.com, a government watchdog nonprofit, reported over 22,0000 royalty payments totaling nearly $134 million in royalty payments from pharma companies to the NIH and directly to over 1,600 NIH scientists. These payments occurred between 2009 and 2014. Data from 2015 onward is not yet available.

    As a co-owner of drug and vaccine patents, Fauci himself receives royalty payments, including from the development of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. The amount of these payments has not been made public.

    It is perhaps no coincidence then, that the Biden administration’s COVID-19 plan, “The Path out of the Pandemic”, consists of only one strategy: more government vaccination mandates.

    “Think about it,” said Children’s Health Defense president Mary Holland. “NIAID is a joint venture partner with Moderna! How can the government be a joint venture partner with a for-profit corporation? And then set public policy to force the use of that product? The conflict of interest is astounding.”

    Experiments in New York

    Drug development for AIDS created a little-known episode in Fauci’s career. Starting in 1985, the NIAID provided funding for clinical drug trials on HIV-positive children, studies which included children in the New York foster care system.

    According to a 2009 report by the Vera Institute of Justice, 25 of the children involved in these experiments died, though there is no evidence that they died as a direct result of the experiments.

    “NIAID under Fauci exploited the most vulnerable in our society to develop new drugs,” said Holland. “These were poor children, without parents, many of whom were already very sick. Episodes like this, make one genuinely recall other medical atrocities in history, experiments conducted on vulnerable people without proper informed consent.”

    Experiments in Africa

    Experimentation on humans has been a key part of Fauci’s role in new drug and vaccine development, especially in Africa in the search for a solution to AIDS.

    Since the mid-1990s Fauci has been the chief promoter of the quest for an HIV vaccine. Under Fauci’s advice, every American president since Clinton has pledged billions of taxpayer dollars to this project—foreign aid diverted away from food and infrastructure to vaccine manufacturers and their research projects, in the name of eradicating AIDS in Africa.

    In early 2000, Fauci and Bill Gates formed a unique partnership to control this flow of money. By leveraging the research funding available through Fauci’s NIAID, Bill Gates’ celebrity philanthropy, the tragedy of AIDS, and the massive wealth of pharmaceutical companies, Fauci and Gates acquired tremendous influence over health policy around the world.

    This Fauci-Gates partnership is detailed in a 2008 report in the Journal of European Molecular Biology, provocatively titled “The Gates Foundation: How Sixty Billion Dollars and One Famous Person Can Affect Spending and Research Focus of Public Agencies”.

    As many human rights organizations have pointed out, Fauci and Gates have spent decades profiting from the use of Africans as test subjects for experimental drugs that often do great harm. And there still is no vaccine for HIV.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 20:20

  • Ethereum's 'Merge' Will Happen Tonight
    Ethereum’s ‘Merge’ Will Happen Tonight

    The much-anticipated ‘Merge’ is upon us…

    Based on the latest countdown, Ethereum users expect the massive network upgrade to begin around 10pm PST, with the second-largest crypto is set to shift to a more environmentally friendly model that may help attract investors who opine that bitcoin’s model uses too much electricity.

    The Ethereum blockchain will transition away from its energy-intensive consensus mechanism Proof-of-Work as its execution layer merges with the new Proof-od-Stake consensus layer known as the Beacon Chain.

    The so-called ‘Merge’ is like upgrading a rocket ship after its launch: “It is an epic engineering feat.”

    As Cointelegraph previously reported the Merge will see ETH, the native currency of the Ethereum ecosystem, remain once the mainnet joins the Beacon Chain.

    It is worth noting that some PoW miners that previously mined blocks and maintained the execution layer have indicated that they will continue to do so.

    The PoS-powered Ethereum blockchain will continue to use ETH after the Merge, while another hypothetical PoW Ethereum network, dubbed ETHPOW, could fork away with the creation of an ETHW token.

    The last 24 hours or so – thanks in large part to yesterday’s CPI-charged chaos – Ethereum has traded lower, but stabilized today around $1600…

    As WSJ reminds, Bitcoin pioneered the proof-of-work model where a global, decentralized network of computers processes transactions and adds them to the blockchain by generating random numbers in hopes of finding the right combination to unlock formulas.

    The miners receive newly minted bitcoins as rewards.

    In the proof-of-stake model Ethereum is moving to, validators put their crypto holdings on the line to verify transactions.

    The “staked” ether tokens act as collateral that can be destroyed or confiscated if the validators behave dishonestly.

    The validators accrue interest payments on their staked assets as a reward.

    For example, staking on the ethereum blockchain prior to the merge would fetch a 4.1% annual percentage rate, according to the Ethereum Foundation.

    Simply put, ethereum’s big makeover means it will take a lot less energy to verify transactions, slashing energy consumption by more than 99% will also go a long way toward lowering the barrier to entry for institutional investors, who have been battling the optics of contributing to the climate crisis.

    One River’s Sebastian Dae noted earlier in the week that, it’ll be boring if all goes according to plan, nothing like the excitement of watching the force of a rocket launch. Alas, the dream of every successful layer 1 is precisely that – to be a boring, secure platform that is eventually taken for granted, invisible to the users who demand more from their tools. The Merge is one step closer to that reality.

    The actual process is expected to take about 12 minutes, during which time about 150 developers will be on high alert to address any potential hitches.

    As Decrypt writes, the merge was originally called “Ethereum 2.0,” but that name was retired in favor of rhyming names for each step: merge, surge, verge, purge, and splurge.

    The Ethereum Foundation is holding its own livestream to watch the transition from the current ‘proof-of-work’ network to its new ‘proof-of-stake’ paradigm…

    Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake are arguably the best-known consensus mechanisms – but new ones are continually emerging.

    PoW blockchains have long dominated the cryptocurrency landscape, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum using this model. This means miners are responsible for securing the network and validating transactions — and they get rewarded with new coins as a result.

    However, a common criticism surrounding Proof-of-Work relates to how much energy it uses, and the impact such blockchains have on the environment. Miners need to use vast amounts of computing power to solve arbitrary mathematical equations. More advanced hardware has been required as the industry matured, with electricity usage surging too. 

    This has led Proof-of-Stake to be regarded as a more eco-friendly approach. Miners are replaced by validators — nodes that have a financial stake in the smooth running of the network. While proponents claim this can use 99% less energy than PoW, some fear PoS can lead to greater levels of centralization and censorship. Ethereum is currently in the process of moving to this consensus mechanism during The Merge — and it’ll be interesting to see how this high-stakes experiment pans out.

    A new approach is known as Published Proof-of-Contribution, otherwise known as PPoC for short. Here, every single participant has a role to play in ensuring the ecosystem is decentralized, democratic and well-governed.

    According to one estimate on the Ethereum Foundation’s blog, the merge will result in a reduction of at least 99.95% in total energy use, but not everyone is clear on the benefits.

    “There are some misconceptions among the wider public around what kind of benefits the Merge is going to bring,” Henry Elder, Head of DeFi at digital asset management firm Wave Financial, told Decrypt.

    “It’s not going to make Ethereum faster, more scalable and cheaper. It’s just Ethereum that goes from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake.”

    Additionally, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor shared a few high level thoughts on Bitcoin Mining & the Environment

    1.  Bitcoin Energy Utilization: Bitcoin runs on stranded, excess energy, generated at the edge of the grid, in places where there is no other demand, at times when no one else needs the electricity.  Retail & commercial consumers of electricity in major population areas pay 5-10x more per kwH (10-20 cents per kwH) than bitcoin miners, who should be thought of as wholesale consumers of energy (normally budgeting 2-3 cents per kwH). The world produces more energy than it needs, and approximately a third of this energy is wasted. The last 15 basis points of energy power the entire Bitcoin Network – this is the least valued, cheapest margin of energy left after 99.85% of the energy in the world is allocated to other uses.

    2. Bitcoin vs. Other Industries: Bitcoin mining is the most efficient, cleanest industrial use of electricity, and is improving its energy efficiency at the fastest rate across any major industry.  Our metrics show ~59.5% of energy for bitcoin mining comes from sustainable sources and energy efficiency improved 46% YoY.  No other industry comes close (consider planes, trains, automobiles, healthcare, banking, construction, precious metals, etc.).  The bitcoin network keeps getting more energy efficient because of the relentless improvement in the semiconductors (SHA-256 ASICs) that power the bitcoin mining centers, combined with the halving of bitcoin mining rewards every four years that is built into the protocol. This results in a consistent 18-36% improvement year after year in energy efficiency. More details on this are included in the BMC Presentation.

    3. Bitcoin Value Creation & Energy Intensity: Approximately $4-5 billion in electricity is used to power & secure a network that is worth $420 billion as of today, and settles $12 billion per day ($4 trillion per year).  The value of the output is 100x the cost of the energy input.  This makes Bitcoin far less energy intensive than Google, Netflix, or Facebook, and 1-2 orders of magnitude less energy intensive than traditional 20th century industries like airlines, logistics, retail, hospitality, & agriculture.

    4. Bitcoin vs. Other Cryptos: The only proven technique for creating a digital commodity is Proof of Work (bitcoin mining) deployed in a fair, equitable fashion (i.e. no pre-mine, no ICO, no controlling foundation, no primary software development team, no series of forced hard fork upgrades that materially change the monetary protocol). If we remove the dedicated hardware (SHA-256 ASICs) and the dedicated energy that powers those mining rigs, we are left with a network secured by proprietary software running on generic computers.  That places all security & control of the network in the hands of a small group of software developers, who must create virtual machines doing virtual work with virtual energy in a virtual world to create virtual security. All attempts to date have resulted in a digital asset that meets the definition of an investment contract (i.e. digital security, not digital commodity). They all pass the Howie test and therefore look more like equities than commodities. 

    Regulators & legal experts have noted on many occasions that Proof of Stake networks are likely securities, not commodities, and we can expect them to be treated as such over time.  PoS Crypto Securities may be appropriate for certain applications, but they are not suitable to serve as global, open, fair money or a global open settlement network.  Therefore, it makes no sense to compare Proof of Stake networks to Bitcoin. The creation of a digital commodity without an issuer that serves as “digital gold” is an innovation (we have accomplished this only once in the history of the world with Bitcoin). The creation of a digital security or digital coupon on a shared database is utterly ordinary (it has been done 20,000 times in the crypto world, and 100,000+ times in the traditional world). 

    5. Bitcoin & Carbon Emissions: 99.92% of carbon emissions in the world are due to industrial uses of energy other than bitcoin mining.  Bitcoin mining is neither the problem nor the solution to the challenge of reducing carbon emissions.  It is in fact a rounding error and would hardly be noticed if it were not for the competitive guerrilla marketing activities of other crypto promoters & lobbyists that seek to focus negative attention on Proof of Work mining in order to distract regulators, politicians, & the general public from the inconvenient truth that Proof of Stake crypto assets are generally unregistered securities trading on unregulated exchanges to the detriment of the retail investing public. 

    6. Bitcoin & Environmental Benefits: There is an increasing awareness that Bitcoin is quite beneficial to the environment because it can be deployed to monetize stranded natural gas or methane gas energy sources.  Methane gas emissions’ curtailment is particularly compelling and Dan Batten (https://batcoinz.com/) has written some impressive papers on this subject.  It has also become clear that energy grids that rely primarily on sustainable power sources like wind, hydro, & solar can be unreliable at times due to lack of water, sunlight, or wind.  In this case, they need to be paired with a large electricity consumer like a bitcoin miner in order to develop grid resilience & finance the buildout of additional capacity necessary to responsibly power major industrial/population centers.  The recent example of major Bitcoin energy curtailment on the ERCOT grid in Texas is an example of the benefits of bitcoin mining to sustainable power providers.  No other industrial energy consumer is so well suited to monetize excess power as well as curtail flexibly during periods of energy shortfall & production volatility. 

    7. Bitcoin & Global Energy: Bitcoin maximalists believe that Bitcoin is an instrument of economic empowerment for 8 billion people around the world. This is supported by the ability of a bitcoin miner to monetize any power source, anywhere, anytime, at any scale.  Bitcoin mining can bring a clean, profitable and modern industry that generates hard currency to a remote location in the developing world, connected only via satellite link. All that is needed is some excess electricity generated from a waterfall, geothermal source, or miscellaneous excess energy deposit. Google, Netflix, and Apple won’t be setting up data centers in Central Africa that export services to their wealthy western clients anytime soon due to constraints on bandwidth, privacy, & requirements for consistent power flow, but bitcoin miners are not hampered by these constraints.  They can utilize erratic power supplies with low bandwidth in remote locations and generate valuable bitcoin without prejudice, just as if they were in a suburb of NYC, LA, or SF.  Even now, Bitcoin miners are everywhere and will continue to spread (though Africa, Asia, South America, etc.) wherever there is excess energy and anyone with aspirations for a better life.  Bitcoin is an egalitarian financial asset offering financial inclusion to all, and bitcoin mining is an egalitarian technology industry offering commercial inclusion to anyone with the energy & engineering capability to operate a mining center. 

    Finally, we note that the average Ethereum user and ETH holder need not worry about losing their funds or making any changes to preferred wallets before the Merge. As the entire history of the Ethereum blockchain is carried across in the transition – all funds in wallets are still accessible and safe.

    Most importantly – be wary of scams. Cointelegraph has compiled a list of the three most prominent ways malicious actors are trying to prey on the Merge event. Fraudulent staking pools, upgrade scams, and fake airdrops are being touted. You do not need to upgrade your wallet or send your ETH to receive new tokens.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 20:00

  • 40% Of Americans Believe CCP Considers Itself At War With US: Poll
    40% Of Americans Believe CCP Considers Itself At War With US: Poll

    Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    An increasing number of Americans believe that China’s communist regime considers itself to be at war with the United States, according to the results of a new national survey.

    University freshmen practice fighting skills during military training on Sept. 25, 2008 in Gaochun County in Jiangsu Province, China. (China Photos/Getty Images)

    Some 40 percent of likely U.S. voters said they think the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which rules China as a single-party state, considers itself to be at war with the United States. Less than 26 percent said the CCP doesn’t consider itself at war with the United States, while more than 34 percent were unsure.

    The survey, conducted by nonprofit Convention of States Action and polling company Trafalgar Group from Sept. 2 to Sept. 5, polled more than 1,000 likely midterm voters across the political spectrum. The poll had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

    Notably, the polling also revealed a stark partisan divide in opinion about the seriousness of the CCP threat.

    Slightly less than 60 percent of Republicans believed that the CCP considers itself to be at war with the United States, while less than 24 percent of Democrats said the same.

    Regardless of affiliation, however, more Americans were unsure of the veracity of the claim than were confident that it’s untrue.

    Regarding the U.S. response to the perceived threat, 67 percent of all respondents said they don’t believe the U.S. government considers itself to be at war with China.

    In all, less than 9 percent believed that the United States considers itself to be at war with China, although Democrats were more than twice as likely to believe such a thing as Republicans.

    These are stunning results,” Mark Meckler, president of the Convention of States Action, said in a statement to The Epoch Times. “Americans clearly see that the Chinese Communist Party considers itself at war with the United States, and yet they acknowledge that the U.S. government doesn’t appear to have a clue this is the case.”

    Congressional Republicans have long lambasted the Biden administration for a perceived failure to adequately respond to CCP aggression. The results of the survey appear to suggest that many Americans are at least sympathetic to the view that U.S. leadership isn’t meeting the regime’s provocations in kind.

    Over the past decade, the CCP has led a widespread effort to undermine U.S. institutions. That campaign has included a plot to attack a U.S. Army veteran running for office, the arson of sculptures critical of the regime, and the stalking and intimidation of a U.S. Olympian whose father had spoken out against the regime.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 19:40

  • US Navy Quietly Cancels Vaccine Requirement Order For SEALs
    US Navy Quietly Cancels Vaccine Requirement Order For SEALs

    The US Navy quietly rolled back Trident Order #12, an order denying religious exemptions for covid vaccinations, a few months after an injunction was issued by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in early 2022 as part of an ongoing lawsuit brought by First Liberty Institute.  The suit was initiated on behalf of 35 active-duty SEALS and three reservists seeking exemptions to the mandate due to the possibility of covid vaccines being developed using cells and tissues from aborted fetuses. 

    This information has only become publicly available after a new filing in the case this week.  Trident Order #12 made any non-compliant SEALS and other troops impossible to deploy and designated them as medically disqualified.  This development runs in tandem with a growing trend among government institutions; they back away from their original draconian mandates but in a manner that reduces media exposure and avoids any admission that the mandates are unconstitutional.

    A communication order was circulated by the Navy on May 23 with the subject: “NSWC CLOSEOUT TO TRIDENT ORDER #12 – MANDATORY VACCINATION FOR COVID-19.” NSWC refers to the Naval Special Warfare Command:

    “This order rescinds reference A,” it states, referring to “Ref A” as “Trident Order #12 on COVID-19 Vaccinations.”

    The May 23 communication order also said Navy commands “will continue to follow guidance, as appropriate, regarding COVID-19 vaccination, accommodation requests, and mitigation measures.”

    The Navy along with every other branch of the US military is facing a severe recruitment crisis, with a record low number of Americans eligible to serve.  In particular, far too many potential recruits are unable to meet the physical requirements to complete basic training.  This has led to discussions on lowering standards, but even this would not solve low recruitment numbers for special operations and SEALS, which require highly capable candidates regardless.

    An implosion in recruitment may have partially contributed to the Navy’s abandonment of vax restrictions, along with the flood of scientific evidence showing that the vaccines make very little difference in immunity and mortality, especially for young and fit individuals, when compared to natural immunity.  Numerous studies show superior immunity among unvaxxed people that have already had covid.

    The US government continues to refuse to acknowledge natural immunity as an acceptable status for the military or federal employees, though their attempts to enforce proof of vaccination (vaccine passports) have all but failed anyway.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 19:20

  • China Back Among Top 10 Countries In Bitcoin-Usage Despite Ban
    China Back Among Top 10 Countries In Bitcoin-Usage Despite Ban

    Authored by Shawn Amick via BitcoinMagazine.com,

    • China is back among the countries with the highest level of bitcoin and cryptocurrency adoption in the world.

    • The findings come from a new Chainalysis report that details the adoption levels of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies per country.

    • Vietnam leads the world in overall adoption, while India has the highest number of centralized purchases.

    Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis has released its 2022 Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index detailing global usage of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies with a unique ranking formula.

    The report’s most staggering bits of information show that, despite last year’s ban, China has returned to rank among the top 10 countries in the world for adoption. Additionally, Vietnam is still ranked first and the U.S. has risen to fifth when it was previously ranked eighth in 2021.

    Top 10 countries in Chainalysis’ Global Crypto Adoption Index. (Table/Chainalysis)

    However, when one looks at this report it becomes far more interesting after realizing how Chainalysis ranks adoption.

    Five separate indexes cumulatively provide the overall index score of each country, and the indexes allow for a weighted calculation based on the percentage of income spent to acquire bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

    Thus, a country with the highest volume accumulated won’t rank as the highest ranking for adoption because it most likely represents a smaller portion of the population’s overall income.

    Additionally, a country can have massive amounts of accumulation but rarely participate in the peer-to-peer (P2P) transfer of value, which could lower a country’s rank. This happens to be the case for India who ranks number one in all metrics, except for P2P transfers which led to the country being ranked fourth globally.

    Therefore, accounting for a country’s use of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as not only a store-of-value, but as a medium of exchange, paints a more complete picture regarding adoption. This also accounts for emerging markets making up the bulk of the list as they participate in more P2P transactions.

    The report concluded by detailing how adoption is still well above 2020 bull market levels and even though markets have experienced bearish momentum, “Bear markets can’t wipe out bull market adoption.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 19:00

  • Here's Why Toyota Isn't Going All-In On Electric Vehicles
    Here’s Why Toyota Isn’t Going All-In On Electric Vehicles

    While many automakers have committed billions of dollars in recent years to develop all-electric vehicles, Toyota has approached the technology with far more caution – opting instead to continue investing in a portfolio of hybrid “electrified” vehicles, such as the Prius.

    2021 Prius hybrid

    And while the Japanese automaker was a darling of US environmentalists and ‘eco-conscious’ consumers when the Prius came out two decades ago, given that it was among the cleanest and most fuel-efficient vehicles ever produced – Toyota has fallen out of favor with the ‘green’ crowd thanks to its hesitancy to jump into the fray with fully electric vehicles.

    “The fact is: a hybrid today is not green technology. The Prius hybrid runs on a pollution-emitting combustion engine found in any gas-powered car,” said Katherine García, director of the Sierra Club’s Clean Transportation for All campaign, in a recent blog post.

    As CNBC notes, Greenpeace has now ranked Toyota at the bottom of a list of 10 automakers’ efforts to ‘decarbonize,’ citing slow progress in its supply chain and sales of zero-emission vehicles, which are less than 1% of Toyota’s sales.

    While automakers such as General Motors, Volkswagen and others vowed to invest billions of dollars in recent years to develop all-electric vehicles that don’t require gas-powered engines like the Prius, Toyota lagged, only more recently announcing similar investments. It also continues to invest in a portfolio of “electrified” vehicles – ranging from traditional hybrids like the Prius to its recently launched, yet underwhelming, bZ4X electric crossover. -CNBC

    Toyota execs say the strategy is appropriate given the lack of EV-supporting infrastructure around the world, as well as the high cost of the vehicles.

    “For as much as people want to talk about EVs, the marketplace isn’t mature enough and ready enough … at the level we would need to have mass movement,” said Jack Hollis, executive vice president of sales at Toyota Motor North America, during an August virtual meeting.

    Toyota Crossover EV Concept

    That said, Toyota announced in December a $28 billion investment (4 trillion yen) in a lineup of 30 battery-powered electric vehicles by 2030, and will continue to invest in hybrids such as the Prius and other potential models.

    “We want to provide each person with a way that they can contribute the most to solving climate change. And we know that that answer is not to treat everybody the same way,” said Gill Pratt, Toyota chief scientist and CEO of the Toyota Research Institute, during a media event last month in Michigan.

    Meanwhile, the company announced several weeks ago that it would allocate $5.6 billion for hybrid and all-electric battery production in Japan and the US as part of the aforementioned 2030 plan.

    And while this may seem like a significant amount of money, which it is, it’s dwarfed by commitments from competitors such as GM and VW – the former of which has announced it will exclusively offer “zero-emission” EVs by 2035. Other automakers have vowed to set targets for at least 50% of their vehicles sold in North America to be all electric.

    Toyota, meanwhile, has a goal to sell 3.5 million electric vehicles per year by 2030 – over 1/3 of current sales, which include around 1 million units from its Lexus brand, which will exclusively offer EVs in Europe, North America and Chiny by then.

    I think they’re hedging their bets,” said Paul Waatti, manager of industry analysis at AutoPacific. “From a global perspective, a lot of markets are moving at different paces. U.S. is slower than Europe and China in EV adoption but there are other markets where there’s no infrastructure at all. To take a varied approach in powertrains makes sense for a global automaker.”

    According to Toyota, electric vehicles are one solution, not the solution, for the company’s carbon-neutral goals.

    “In the distant future, I’m not investing assuming that battery electrics are 100% of the market. I just don’t see it,” said Jim Adler, founding managing director Toyota Ventures. “It really will be a mixed market.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 18:40

  • DOJ Official Who Exposed Themselves, 'Sexually Assaulted Civilian' Won't Be Prosecuted: IG
    DOJ Official Who Exposed Themselves, ‘Sexually Assaulted Civilian’ Won’t Be Prosecuted: IG

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Department of Justice (DOJ) Inspector General’s Office won’t prosecute an assistant U.S. attorney who engaged in sexual misconduct with a civilian on a date.

    Signage is seen at the U.S. Department of Justice headquarters in Washington on Aug. 29, 2020. (Andrew Kelly/Reuters)

    The office stated (pdf) on Sept. 12 that an investigation had determined the unnamed assistant U.S. attorney exposed themselves in a public place and then “sexually assaulted a civilian while on a date,” which it noted was “in violation of state law and federal regulations governing off-duty conduct.”

    After an investigation, the office also found that the assistant U.S. attorney “lacked candor in discussing” the incident with investigators.

    Criminal prosecution of the [assistant U.S. attorney] was declined,” the report reads.

    The name of the assistant U.S. attorney wasn’t disclosed, and it’s unclear if the person still works as an assistant U.S. attorney.

    The Inspector General’s Office noted that it sent the Executive Office for the U.S. Attorneys and DOJ Office of Professional Responsibility its report. Assistant U.S. attorneys work for the various U.S. attorneys’ offices, which prosecute federal crimes around the country.

    “Unless otherwise noted, the [Inspector General’s Office] applies the preponderance of the evidence standard in determining whether Department of Justice personnel have committed misconduct,” the Inspector General’s Office stated.

    Another Incident

    Also on Sept. 12, the DOJ Inspector General’s Office released a separate report stating that an unidentified assistant U.S. attorney (AUSA) abused their position after being stopped by police while intoxicated.

    “The OIG [Office of Inspector General] investigation found that the AUSA had engaged in misuse of position when referring to the AUSA’s title in an attempt to influence local police officers during a traffic stop,” the report (pdf) reads. “The OIG investigation also found that the AUSA engaged in conduct that was prejudicial to the government, including ignoring instructions, cursing at officers, and kicking the door of the patrol vehicle, in violation of federal ethics regulations.”

    The investigation also found that the assistant U.S. attorney “had been driving a personal vehicle while under the influence of alcohol,” according to the report.

    After completing the investigation, the office handed its report to the Office of Professional Responsibility “for appropriate action,” the report states.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 18:20

  • China Issues Highest Typhoon Warning As Storm Approaches World's Largest Container Ports
    China Issues Highest Typhoon Warning As Storm Approaches World’s Largest Container Ports

    China issued the highest tropical cyclone warning on Wednesday as Typhoon Muifa barreled toward Shanghai as Asia’s largest ports are at a standstill. 

    Chinese state media said Muifa is expected to make landfall between the cities of Wenling and Zhoushan on Wednesday, dumping torrential rains, unleashing high winds, and battering coastlines with massive waves. The areas of impact include critical commercial zones to global supply chains. 

    Source: Bloomberg 

    Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan Ports are in the direct path of the storm. The twin port cities are some of the largest in Asia and the world in cargo handling and are at a standstill as waves up to 5 meters (16 feet) are expected Wednesday. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    US Joint Typhoon Warning Center said wind gusts over 100 mph are expected for the next 12 hours as it approaches Shanghai. 

    China issued the highest-level typhoon warning on Wednesday for the first time this year, according to state media. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Besides shipping disruptions, all flights in the region have been canceled for Wednesday, flight data platform Variflight told Reuters. 

    Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Steven Lam said the storm could inflict almost a billion dollars in damage to coastal areas in eastern China. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/14/2022 – 18:00

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Today’s News 14th September 2022

  • Escobar: Asia's Future Takes Shape In Vladivostok, The Russian Pacific
    Escobar: Asia’s Future Takes Shape In Vladivostok, The Russian Pacific

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    Sixty-eight countries gathered on Russia’s far eastern coast to listen to Moscow’s economic and political vision for the Asia-Pacific…

    The Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok is one of the indispensable annual milestones for keeping up not only with the complex development process of the Russian Far East but major plays for Eurasia integration.

    Mirroring an immensely turbulent 2022, the current theme in Vladivostok is ‘On the Path to a Multipolar World.’ Russian President Vladimir Putin himself, in a short message to business and government participants from 68 nations, set the stage:

    “The obsolete unipolar model is being replaced by a new world order based on the fundamental principles of justice and equality, as well as the recognition of the right of each state and people to their own sovereign path of development. Powerful political and economic centers are taking shape right here in the Asia-Pacific region, acting as a driving force in this irreversible process.”

    In his speech to the EEF plenary session, Ukraine was barely mentioned. Putin’s response when asked about it: “Is this country part of Asia-Pacific?”

    The speech was largely structured as a serious message to the collective west, as well as to what top analyst Sergey Karaganov calls the “global majority.” Among several takeaways, these may be the most relevant:

    • Russia as a sovereign state will defend its interests.

    • Western sanctions ‘fever’ is threatening the world – and economic crises are not going away after the pandemic.

    • The entire system of international relations has changed. There is an attempt to maintain world order by changing the rules.

    • Sanctions on Russia are closing down businesses in Europe. Russia is coping with economic and tech aggression from the west.

    • Inflation is breaking records in developed countries. Russia is looking at around 12 percent.

    • Russia has played its part in grain exports leaving Ukraine, but most shipments went to EU nations and not developing countries.

    • The “welfare of the ‘Golden Billion’ is being ignored.”

    • The west is in no position to dictate energy prices to Russia.

    • Ruble and yuan will be used for gas payments.

    • The role of Asia-Pacific has significantly increased.

    In a nutshell: Asia is the new epicenter of technological progress and productivity.

    No more an ‘object of colonization’ 

    Taking place only two weeks before another essential annual gathering – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand – it is no wonder some of the top discussions at the EEF revolve around the increasing economic interpolation between the SCO and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

    This theme is as crucial as the development of the Russian Arctic: at 41 percent of total territory, that’s the largest resource base in the federation, spread out over nine regions, and encompassing the largest Special Economic Zone (SEZ) on the planet, linked to the free port of Vladivostok. The Arctic is being developed via several strategically important projects processing mineral, energy, water and biological natural resources.

    So it’s perfectly fitting that Austria’s former foreign minister Karin Kneissel, self-described as “a passionate historian,” quipped about her fascination at how Russia and its Asian partners are tackling the development of the Northern Sea Route: “One of my favorite expressions is that airlines and pipelines are moving east. And I keep saying this for twenty years.”

    Amidst a wealth of roundtables exploring everything from the power of territory, supply chains and global education to “the three whales” (science, nature, human), arguably the top discussion this Tuesday at the forum was centered on the role of the SCO.

    Apart from the current full members – Russia, China, India, Pakistan, four Central Asians (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan), plus the recent accession of Iran – no less than 11 further nations want to join, from observer Afghanistan to dialogue partner Turkey.

    Grigory Logvinov, the SCO’s deputy secretary general, stressed how the economic, political and scientific potential of players comprising “the center of gravity” for Asia – over a quarter of the world’s GDP, 50 percent of the world’s population – has not been fully harvested yet.

    Kirill Barsky, from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, explained how the SCO is actually the model of multipolarity, according to its charter, compared to the backdrop of “destructive processes” launched by the west.

    And that leads to the economic agenda in the Eurasian integration progress, with the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) configured as the SCO’s most important partner.

    Barsky identifies the SCO as “the core Eurasian structure, forming the agenda of Greater Eurasia within a network of partnership organizations.” That’s where the importance of the cooperation with ASEAN comes in.

    Barsky could not but evoke Mackinder, Spykman and Brzezinski – who regarded Eurasia “as an object to be acted upon the wishes of western states, confined within the continent, away from the ocean shores, so the western world could dominate in a global confrontation of land and sea. The SCO as it developed can triumph over these negative concepts.”

    And here we hit a notion widely shared from Tehran to Vladivostok:

    Eurasia no longer as “an object of colonization by ‘civilized Europe’ but again an agent of global policy.”

    ‘India wants a 21st Asian century’

    Sun Zuangnzhi from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) elaborated on China’s interest in the SCO. He focused on achievements: In the 21 years since its founding, a mechanism to establish security between China, Russia and Central Asian states evolved into “multi-tiered, multi-sector cooperation mechanisms.”

    Instead of “turning into a political instrument,” the SCO should capitalize on its role of dialogue forum for states with a difficult history of conflicts – “interactions are sometimes difficult” – and focus on economic cooperation “on health, energy, food security, reduction of poverty.”

    Rashid Alimov, a former SCO secretary general, now a professor at the Taihe Institute, stressed the “high expectations” from Central Asian nations, the core of the organization. The original idea remains – based on the indivisibility of security on a trans-regional level in Eurasia.

    Well, we all know how the US and NATO reacted when Russia late last year proposed a serious dialogue on “indivisibility of security.”

    As Central Asia does not have an outlet to the sea, it is inevitable, as Alimov stressed, that Uzbekistan’s foreign policy privileges involvement in accelerated intra-SCO trade. Russia and China may be the leading investors, and now “Iran also plays an important role. Over 1,200 Iranian companies are working in Central Asia.”

    Connectivity, once again, must increase: “The World Bank rates Central Asia as one of the least connected economies in the world.”

    Sergey Storchak of Russian bank VEB explained the workings of the “SCO interbank consortium.” Partners have used “a credit line from the Bank of China” and want to sign a deal with Uzbekistan. The SCO interbank consortium will be led by the Indians on a rotation basis – and they want to step up its game. At the upcoming summit in Samarkand, Storchak expects a road map for the transition towards the use of national currencies in regional trade.

    Kumar Rajan from the School of International Studies of the Jawaharlal Nehru University articulated the Indian position. He went straight to the point: “India wants a 21st Asian century. Close cooperation between India and China is necessary. They can make the Asian century happen.”

    Rajan remarked how India does not see the SCO as an alliance, but committed to the development and political stability of Eurasia.

    He made the crucial point about connectivity revolving around India “working with Russia and Central Asia with the INSTC” – the International North South Transportation Corridor, and one of its key hubs, the Chabahar port in Iran: “India does not have direct physical connectivity with Central Asia. The INSTC has the participation of an Iranian shipping line with 300 vessels, connecting to Mumbai. President Putin, in the [recent] Caspian meeting, referred directly to the INSTC.”

    Crucially, India not only supports the Russian concept of Greater Eurasia Partnership but is engaged in setting up a free trade agreement with the EAEU: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, incidentally, came to the Vladivostok forum last year.

    In all of the above nuanced interventions, some themes are constant. After the Afghanistan disaster and the end of the US occupation there, the stabilizing role of the SCO cannot be overstated enough. An ambitious road map for cooperation is a must – probably to be approved at the Samarkand summit. All players will be gradually changing to trade in bilateral currencies. And creation of transit corridors is leading to the progressive integration of national transit systems.

    Let there be light

    A key roundtable on the ‘Gateway to a Multipolar World’ expanded on the SCO role, outlining how most Asian nations are “friendly” or “benevolently neutral” when it comes to Russia after the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine.

    So the possibilities for expanding cooperation across Eurasia remain practically unlimited. Complementarity of economies is the main factor. That would lead, among other developments, to the Russian Far East, as a multipolar hub, turning into “Russia’s gateway to Asia” by the 2030s.

    Wang Wen from the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies stressed the need for Russia to rediscover China – finding “mutual trust in the middle level and elites level”. At the same time, there’s a sort of global rush to join BRICS, from Saudi Arabia and Iran to Afghanistan and Argentina:

    “That means a new civilization model for emerging economies like China and Argentina because they want to rise up peacefully (…) I think we are in the new civilization age.”

    B. K. Sharma from the United Service Institution of India got back to Spykman pigeonholing the nation as a rimland state. Not anymore: India now has multiple strategies, from connecting to Central Asia to the ‘Act East’ policy. Overall, it’s an outreach to Eurasia, as India “is not competitive and needs to diversify to get better access to Eurasia, with logistical help from Russia.“

    Sharma stresses how India takes SCO, BRICS and RICs very seriously while seeing Russia playing “an important role in the Indian Ocean.” He nuances the Indo-Pacific outlook: India does not want Quad as a military alliance, privileging instead “interdependence and complementarity between India, Russia and China.”

    All of these discussions interconnect with the two overarching themes in several Vladivostok roundtables: energy and the development of the Arctic’s natural resources.

    Pavel Sorokin, Russian First Deputy Minister of Energy, dismissed the notion of a storm or typhoon in the energy markets: “It’s a far cry from a natural process. It’s a man-made situation.” The Russian economy, in contrast, is seen by most analysts as slowly but surely designing its Arctic/Asian cooperation future – including, for instance, the creation of a sophisticated trans-shipment infrastructure for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG).

    Energy Minister Nikolay Shulginov made sure that Russia will actually increase its gas production, considering the rise of LNG deliveries and the construction of Power of Siberia-2 to China: “We will not merely scale up the pipeline capacity but we will also expand LNG production: it has mobility and excellent purchases on the global market.”

    On the Northern Sea Route, the emphasis is on building a powerful, modern icebreaker fleet – including nuclear. Gadzhimagomed Guseynov, First Deputy Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, is adamant: “What Russia has to do is to make the Northern Sea Route a sustainable and important transit route.”

    There is a long-term plan up to 2035 to create infrastructure for safe shipping navigation, following an ‘Arctic best practices’ of learning step by step. NOVATEK, according to its deputy chairman Evgeniy Ambrosov, has been conducting no less than a revolution in terms of Arctic navigation and shipbuilding in the last few years.

    Kniessel, the former Austrian minister, recalled that she always missed the larger geopolitical picture in her discussions when she was active in European politics (she now lives in Lebanon): “I wrote about the passing of the torch from Atlanticism to the Pacific. Airlines, pipelines and waterways are moving East. The Far East is actually Pacific Russia.”

    Whatever Atlanticists may think of it, the last word for the moment might belong to Vitaly Markelov, from the board of directors of Gazprom: Russia is ready for winter. There will be warmth and light everywhere.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 23:30

  • "No More Naivety": Germany Working On New Trade Policy Reducing Dependence On Chinese Raw Materials
    “No More Naivety”: Germany Working On New Trade Policy Reducing Dependence On Chinese Raw Materials

    It appears that beggars can be choosers.

    The beggar in this case is Germany – whose economic prosperity over the past two decades has been largely a function of its close mercantilist relationship with China (and, of course, the PIIGS-crippling euro which allowed Germany to benefit from a cheap, distributed and very much artificial currency instead of the always overvalued DEM) – which according to Reuters has chosen it no longer needs said prosperity, and on Tuesday Germany’s economy minister, Robert Habeck, said the government was working on a new trade policy with China to reduce dependence on Chinese raw materials, batteries and semiconductors, promising “no more naivety” in trade dealings with Beijing.

    Sources told Reuters last week the economy ministry was considering a raft of new measures to make business with China less attractive. And today was the first time the minister confirmed the tougher line was being translated into policy measures

    Habeck told Reuters that China was a welcome trading partner, but Germany could not allow Beijing’s protectionism to distort competition and would not hold back criticism of human rights violations under threat of losing business.

    “We cannot allow ourselves to be blackmailed,” he said in an interview, clearly forgetting that since Germany already lost Russian commodities, it clearly can be blackmailed by China, which together with its sphere of influence – i.e., LatAm and Africa – which remains its last chance at having access to any commodities.

    Habeck did not outline new measures in full – for the simple reason that they don’t exist nor will they ever be implemented unless Germany wants an overnight depression – but said they would include closer examination of Chinese investments in Europe, such as infrastructure.

    While there are many things about Germany’s tantrum that are delightfully idiotic, what is most laughable is that China has been Germany’s biggest trade partner for the past six years, with volumes reaching over 245 billion euros ($246 billion) in 2021. And guess what happens when you tell your biggest trade partner you will no longer tolerate anything they want you to tolerate?

    But the centre-left government – the same geniuses who laughed at Trump, took their energy policies from a Scandinavian teenager, left Germany with almost no nuclear power plants and hostage to Putin’s geopolitical ambitions – is taking a tougher line towards Beijing than its centre-right predecessor, clearly pressured by woke German twitterers and “worried about Germany’s dependence on Asia’s economic superpower” (odd they were not worried about Germany’s dependent on Russia’s energy superpower).

    Last Thursday, Reuters reported the economy ministry was considering measures including reducing or even scrapping investment and export guarantees for China and no longer promoting trade fairs. Habeck said Germany must open up to new trading partners and regions as many sectors were heavily dependent on selling to China.

    Of course, if Germany is dumb enough to do another huge mistake and extends its blockade of Russia to China, the results will be beyond catastrophic.

    “If it (the Chinese market) were to close, which is not likely at the moment … we would have extreme sales problems,” Habeck said, adding the economy ministry was contributing to the new German-China policy, much of which is already in place. “And from this you will see that there is no more naivety,” he added.

    Berlin also wants to examine Chinese investments in Europe more critically, he said, adding Europe should not support China’s Silk Road Initiative, which aims to buy up strategic infrastructure in Europe and influence trade policy.

    As an example, Habeck signalled he was opposed to plans by China’s Cosco to buy a stake in a container operator at Germany’s Hafen Hamburg port, signalling concerns about Chinese takeover deals are spreading out from the technology arena into other industry sectors, such as logistics.

    “I’m leaning towards the fact that we don’t allow that,” he said.

    China has not joined the West in imposing sweeping sanctions on Moscow following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but has also not endorsed Moscow’s actions as Beijing needs to maintain trade relations with Europe. Of course, the more Europe in general, and Germany in particular, pushes against its biggest trading partner, the faster it will ensure that the strategic union between Russia and China is unbreakable, and leave the west with soaring inflation in everything from commodities to raw materials and all those formerly cheap things people could buy at Walmart.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 23:10

  • Post-Fukushima Shift: Political And Public Support Rises In Japan For More Nuclear Plants
    Post-Fukushima Shift: Political And Public Support Rises In Japan For More Nuclear Plants

    In Japan, a major reversal last month, the government now wants to restart more nuclear power plants that were idled after the 2011 Fukushima disaster and is interested in expanding investments in next-generation plants. Weeks after the announcement, Japanese broadcaster NHK commissioned a new survey that revealed half of the population supports the government’s initiative to expand nuclear power. 

    NHK found that 48% of the respondents supported Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s plan of developing next-generation nuclear reactors as a reliable, clean energy power source in the country. About 32% opposed the plan, and another 20% were undecided. 

    The survey was conducted between Sept. 9-11 via random telephone conversations among 1,255 adults and came two weeks after Kishida announced plans to examine the construction of new plants that would break more than a decade of energy policy following the Fukushima disaster, which led to a decade-long effort to eliminate nuclear. 

    Japan’s energy policy is coming out of a decade of paralysis with increasing political and public support. The prime minister announced the restart of seven nuclear reactors across the country by the summer of 2023, bringing the total number of operating power units to 17.

    Kishida’s reasoning behind revisiting nuclear comes as Japan could face electricity supply problems due to soaring prices of natural gas and other energy products. 

    Uranium bulls should be jumping for joy at the prime minister’s statement last month: 

    “Nuclear power and renewables are essential to proceed with a green transformation,” Kishida said. “Russia’s invasion changed the global energy situation.”

    Besides Japan, California and Germany have recently announced plans to extend the life of nuclear power plants beyond the end of this year as the world faces a very dark winter amid a global energy crisis.

    “Germany and California have been two of the most negative jurisdictions in the world on nuclear and both of them are coming around. I would say hell would freeze over before that would happen,” Per Jander, director of nuclear and renewables at WMC Energy, a commodity merchant, told Financial Times. “It will have an immediate impact on the market.”

    The world appears to be more receptive to nuclear following the invasion of Ukraine. We should revisit our recommendation on Uranium from December 2020

    Nuclear will sooner or later be accepted as one of the most stable “clean energy” sources of power in the green energy transition. Unlike solar, wind, and hydro, the world has figured out those renewable energy sources aren’t as reliable as previously thought. Nuclear will be a big winner as the world races to decarbonize power grids. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 22:30

  • Virginia AG Forming 'Election Integrity Unit' To Make It "Easy To Vote And Hard To Cheat"
    Virginia AG Forming ‘Election Integrity Unit’ To Make It “Easy To Vote And Hard To Cheat”

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Virginia’s Republican attorney general, Jason Miyares, announced on Sept. 9 the formation of an “Election Integrity Unit” within his office that will ensure “legality and purity” in the election process by working with law enforcement, the Department of Elections, the State Board, and the broader community.

    “I pledged during the 2021 campaign to work to increase transparency and strengthen confidence in our state elections,” said Miyares in a press release on Friday. “It should be easy to vote, and hard to cheat. The Election Integrity Unit will work to help to restore confidence in our democratic process in the Commonwealth.”

    Jason Miyares, who later won the election for Virginia attorney general and was sworn into office, speaks to a rally in a file photograph. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    Headed by Miyares, the unit will have more than 20 attorneys, investigators, and paralegals from across the various divisions of the AG’s office. They are expected to monitor processes across Virginia’s 133 local electoral boards and general registrars and the bipartisan State Board of Elections starting with the upcoming midterms. Early voting begins in the state on Sept. 17, 2022.

    The Republican Party of Virginia voiced its support for the unit, and said that the AG’s “bold initiative will increase transparency in our elections, restore confidence in our democratic process, and better ensure that every vote is counted in accordance with the law.”

    “At the same time, Democrats in the state senate have blocked common-sense election integrity measures like voter ID,” it added.

    The Epoch Times has reached out to the office of Virginia Democrats.

    “With the creation of this unit, Attorney General Miyares has fully embraced Trump’s ‘Big Lie’ and the far-right fringes of the Republican party,” said Democratic Party of Virginia spokesman Gianni Snidle, according to Virginia Mercury.

    Voter Fraud in Virginia

    The statement from the Virginia GOP included the news of a former election official who has been prosecuted by Miyares for election fraud. “Just this week, we saw the need for stronger protections for our elections system when a former top Prince William County election official was indicted on fraud charges related to the 2020 election,” said the GOP.

    The official, Michele White, was indicted last week for three felonies, according to documents reviewed by The Epoch Times. Based on the grand jury charge, White engaged in corrupt conduct between Aug. 1 and Dec. 31, 2020, and is accused of making a false statement regarding the election and neglecting her duty as an election officer. She faces 21 years in prison if convicted of all charges.

    Media companies like Democracy Docket and the Washington Post discounted the formation of the unit, and wrote similar tweets voicing their opinions on the 2020 election.

    “Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) announces new Election Integrity Unit to investigate and prosecute election law violations. Election crimes are not a widespread problem in Virginia, or anywhere in the U.S.,” said Democracy Docket in a tweet on Friday.

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    Meanwhile, the Washington Post said, “Virginia’s Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares announced the creation of an ‘Election Integrity Unit’ that will provide legal advice and prosecute election law violations. The state, however, has not seen significant issues with voter fraud.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 22:10

  • NY Fed Guru Says Powell Will "Overdo It" And Cause A Recession
    NY Fed Guru Says Powell Will “Overdo It” And Cause A Recession

    When BofA’s top Rates strategist, and former NY Fed analyst, Marc Cabana speaks, investors, the Fed – and even his former Fed co-worker and repo guru, Zoltan Pozsar – listen. And what Cabana has to say is always extremely important.

    Two months after Cabana’s rates team published a must read note in which it predicted that the Fed will be forced to end QT much sooner than expected

    “Fed QT that is stopped in Sept ’23 will result in $1tn less balance sheet reduction vs our prior estimates through end ’24. Over a similar period, early QT end would result in $780b less UST financing need + $350b of additional Fed UST demand (from Fed MBS paydowns reinvested into USTs).”

    … today the former NY Fed guru warned of precisely the same thing that we have been saying for years, namely that the Fed won’t stop – and probably can’t stop – until it breaks something. Or some things.

    Speaking to Bloomberg TV just one hour before today’s CPI print came in far hotter than expected and convinced markets that a 100bps hike is likely on deck next week, Cabana said the Fed is so intent on stopping inflation it will likely raise rates until the US economy is in a recession.

    “The Fed is probably going to overdo it,” the global head of US rates strategy at BofA, told Bloomberg TV. “We have seen them turn very hawkish with the labor-market strength. We think that the Fed will try and stick to this higher-for-longer mantra. That’s probably going to result in a recession.”

    Shortly after Cabana’s interview, the CPI print sent stocks plunging to their worst daily loss since the summer of 2020, as Treasury yields soared across the curve, with the two-year rate soaring as much as 18 basis points to about 3.75% — the highest since 2007 — while the terminal rate, or the implied rate for where the tightening cycle will top out next year, leaped to about 4.3%.

    And since by then the Fed will have broken more than just the economy (last week we had our first major credit event as Mike Hartnett noted), expectations that the Fed will have to cut even faster than before in 2023 also jumped.

    Cabana also picked up on a point we made over the weekend, namely that “the Fed probably won’t trust that until they see the labor market soften more meaningfully. It certainly seems like the Fed is dead-set on ensuring that they get that labor market slowdown.”

    Translation: as Jason Furman wrote late last week, for the Fed to lower inflation to ~2% by the 2024 presidential election, unemployment will have to rise to 6.5% from 3.7% currently…

    resulting in a tidal wave of job less equal to at least an additional 4.8 million unemployed.

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have said the bank is committed to its goal of cutting inflation down to 2% over time. Cabana provided a warning to investors on that point.

    “I do worry that this is a Fed that wants to see even more tightening of financial conditions in order to have faith that they will be able to achieve their 2% inflation target,” he said. The risks are skewed in the Fed continuing to sound hawkish, with that being be “a headwind for risk assets,” Cabana added.

    And of course, he is right… to a point, the point being when enough Democrats scream bloody murder at the coming unemployment tsunami and force Powell to reverse. What happens then? Why the exact thing we have been saying for over a year: the Fed’s only option will be to raise its “inflation target” from 2% to 3%, something even Fuhrman agrees is coming…

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have said the bank is committed to its goal of cutting inflation down to 2% over time. Cabana provided a warning to investors on that point. “I do worry that this is a Fed that wants to see even more tightening of financial conditions in order to have faith that they will be able to achieve their 2% inflation target,” he said. The risks are skewed in the Fed continuing to sound hawkish, with that being be “a headwind for risk assets,” Cabana added.

    … and an event which will send all assets to fresh all time highs, which may explain why so many stubbornly refuse to sell stocks, well aware that when the Fed pivot comes, all markets will reprice exponentially higher within nanoseconds.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 21:50

  • Peter Thiel: 'Wokeness' Is Like Wahhabism
    Peter Thiel: ‘Wokeness’ Is Like Wahhabism

    Authored by Park MacDougald via UnHerd.com,

    The third annual National Conservatism conference kicked off Sunday in Miami, Florida, bringing together a who’s who of figures associated with the so-called “New Right.” Topics of discussion included how to combat the rise of China, how to fight back against gender ideology, and, courtesy of the Heritage Foundation’s David Azerrad, how to resist the “blackpill” of living in a country in which “the elite is corrupt and so are the people”.  

    But the headliners were names that will be familiar to anyone with even a passing familiarity with current events – billionaire investor Peter Thiel and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose 2024 presidential ambitions are the worst-kept secret in American politics.

    The billionaire warned that California is starting to seem like Saudi Arabia…

    Peter Thiel delivered a typically contrarian speech at the NatCon conference

    Thiel opened the conference with what, considering the circumstances, amounted to a contrarian speech.

    The topic of his address was California, which in recent years has become a standard conservative punching bag.

    But Thiel’s diagnosis of the problem was different.

    In his view, the main problem with California is that, like Saudi Arabia or Venezuela, it is the victim of a “resource curse”.

    That is, the wealth generated from California’s tech sector is so tremendous that it ends up distorting the state’s entire political economy.

    “Wokeness”, he posited, plays the same role as Wahabbism in the similarly afflicted Saudi Arabia.

    There is, of course, a minority — “maybe 20%” of true believers — but mostly it is a sort of lip service that Machiavellian elites pay to a system of values that allows them to keep the whole corrupt machine running. 

    The problem with the Democratic Party, Thiel argued, is that it is effectively trapped in the California model – a fabulously wealthy and productive oligarchy on top, public-sector bureacurats in the middle, and a feral underclass dependent on government transfers on the bottom.

    But that model can’t go national — there isn’t enough money in the tech sector to go around. 

    Thiel also issued a word of warning to Republicans.

    The current GOP, he said, is stuck in a pure “nihilistic negation” of the Democrats’ California model – railing against wokeness, urban crime, and feces on the streets of San Francisco, without even attempting to offer a positive model to counter it.

    “The temptation on our side is always going to be that all we have to do is say that we’re not California,” he said.

    “It is just such an ugly picture, the homeless poop, people pooping all over the place, it’s the ridiculous rat-infested apartments that don’t work anymore, it’s the woke insanities, there’s so much that it feels like shooting fish in a barrel. It’s so easy, so ridiculous to denounce.”

    The question Republicans should be asking, he said, was: “How can we concretely offer a vision for the 21st century that’s better than California?”

    Bashing California “might be enough to win in the midterms in ’22,” Thiel said, “It might be enough to win in ’24. But we want to have more of a program positive vision, something like that to be credible.”

    Even red state success stories like Texas and Florida, he noted, have seen speculative bonanzas in real estate and permanently rising housing prices in cities like Austin and Miami, suggesting that neither Greg Abbott nor Ron DeSantis have figured out a truly sustainable model for middle class prosperity. 

    “The fact that real estate in Florida or Texas has melted up over the last two or three years is not evidence that you’re succeeding and building a better model than California,” he said.

    “I’m worried that that’s evidence that you’re becoming like California.”

    Watch the full Thiel keynote below:

    The billionaire’s remarks were a bit cryptic, and hung over the remainder of Day 1, which in other respects felt like a full-on rally for DeSantis’s expected 2024 presidential campaign. Indeed, DeSantis’s speech, which closed proceedings on Sunday evening, brought the house down. 

    The governor, looking confident behind the lectern, spent nearly an hour running through his big themes of the last two years – fighting the public health bureaucrats over lockdowns and school shutdowns, passing laws against woke indoctrination in schools and workplaces, and going to war with Disney over what he described as the company’s plans to push gender ideology on Florida’s children. When he reached the climax of his speech – “Disney is no longer going to have its own government – the room erupted in a standing ovation.  

    DeSantis, if today is any indication, has won over the nationalist-populist intellectual sorts that have flocked to today’s conference. But if Thiel’s remarks are any indication, America’s most interesting billionaire is after bigger game.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 21:30

  • Another Russian Energy Exec Found Dead, 'Fell Overboard' Boat At Full Speed
    Another Russian Energy Exec Found Dead, ‘Fell Overboard’ Boat At Full Speed

    Another one bites the dust…

    Less than two weeks since Ravil Maganov, the vice president and chair of the board of directors of Russian oil giant Lukoil, died after falling out of a sixth floor hospital window in Moscow, another Russian energy executive has been found dead in mysterious circumstances.

    39-year-old Ivan Pechorin, managing director of Putin’s Far East and Arctic Development Corporation, fell off the side of a boat while sailing in the waters close to Russky Island near Cape Ignatiev, according to Russian daily Komsomolskaya Pravda.

    For two days, rescuers searched for a man at sea near the coastline – unfortunately, he was found dead.

    “On September 12, 2022, it became known about the tragic death of our colleague, Managing Director for the Aviation Industry of the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation Ivan Pechorin. Ivan’s death is an irreparable loss for friends and colleagues, a great loss for the corporation,” representatives of the Development Corporation said.

    According to The Mirror’s Russia correspondent, he was personally selected by Putin for his role, and was described by Newsweek as Putin’s “key man” in the region. 

    Interestingly, Pechorin’s death comes just months after the corporation’s former CEO Igor Nosov, 43, also died suddenly in February, reportedly from a stroke.

    Pechorin’s death is the latest in a string of unexplained or untimely deaths of Russian magnates connected to the energy industry in the last months.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 21:10

  • Biden Admin Reportedly Ready To Refill Strategic Petroleum Reserve At $80/BBL
    Biden Admin Reportedly Ready To Refill Strategic Petroleum Reserve At $80/BBL

    A day after we reported that the Biden administration withdrew a record amount from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve plunging it to its lowest since 1982, Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, the US may begin refilling its emergency oil reserve when crude prices fall to around $80 a barrel.

    The sources said that Biden administration officials are weighing the timing of such a move, with an eye toward protecting US oil-production growth and preventing crude prices from plummeting (in an effort to reassure oil producers that the administration won’t let prices collapse).

    The reaction in WTI was immediate with the front-month bid (well above $80)…

    “It may not be a catalyst for $100 crude but does offer a buffer to the downside risk that the market is worrying about,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management.

    And as we have noted previously, while gas prices have dropped for 90 straight days now, they are already decoupled to the downside (thanks to the SPR releases) relative to crude and wholesale prices.

    But, as we noted yesterday, this is likely to be problem for after the Midterms – so really, Biden doesn’t care if it raises gas prices, it will be Republican House’s problem?

    So – to sum up – President Biden is fighting inflation by pre-announcing there is now a hard floor on oil prices, ensuring they never drop below it and gasoline surges now that OPEC has all the leverage.

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    Trade accordingly.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 20:58

  • These US Cities Are Seeing Largest Increase In Rent Prices
    These US Cities Are Seeing Largest Increase In Rent Prices

    Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    While New York, California, and Boston continue to be the most expensive rental markets in the country, some unexpected locales have actually experienced the largest increases in one-bedroom apartment prices year-over-year.

    A “For Rent” sign posted in front of an apartment building in San Francisco, Calif., on June 2, 2021. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    Greensboro, North Carolina, sits atop the list with rent increases of 74.2 percent, followed by Newport News, Virginia, at 60.7 percent, and Tulsa, Oklahoma, at 59.8 percent, according to  Rent.com’s August report. Jon Leckie, a researcher with Rent.com, told The Epoch Times that such increases aren’t unusual, given the amount of people who have been flocking to these areas.

    “We’re seeing a pattern where the markets around the larger metro areas are attracting more people because they’re less expensive, but still within an hour’s commute to a city,” he said. “People want to get out of the crowded, expensive core metros, and the trend toward more remote working means they may not have to commute every day.”

    With one-bedroom apartment monthly rentals averaging $1,289, Greensboro’s rental market falls far below the national average of $1,770.

    Currently, Charlotte [North Carolina] has the most outbound migration than any other city in the county,” Leckie said. “People are leaving the bigger cities, and we’ve found that much of inbound traffic to Greensboro and the other smaller markets is from New York City, Philadelphia, Chicago, Raleigh, Atlanta, Nashville, and [Washington] D.C.”

    Little Rock, Arkansas; Oklahoma City; Lexington, Kentucky; Rochester, New York; and other communities with populations below 300,000 people are also experiencing rental booms.

    On the other hand, St. Louis; Fort Lauderdale, Florida; and Baltimore are the top three locations that have seen the biggest decrease in one-bedroom apartment rents. St. Louis leads with a 39.4 percent decline, followed by Fort Lauderdale at 34.9 percent and Baltimore at 26.9 percent. Miami, Cleveland, and Reno, Nevada, also made the list of rent reductions.

    “St. Louis saw a huge decline, especially when downtown prices are so high for small spaces,” Leckie said. “The general trends we see, as the big coastal cities continue blowing up with high prices, are that renters will seek out cheaper areas in the Midwest and South. The Northeast and the West are still losing people.”

    Not surprisingly, the report lists New York as the most expensive rental area, with the average one-bedroom rental at $5,760 per month. In the cities of Glendale and Oakland, California, monthly rents average $4,014 and $3,916, respectively. Boston apartment renters pay an average of $3,080, while San Francisco’s average is $3,701 per month.

    Some of the nation’s most affordable one-bedroom rentals can be found in Oklahoma City, at an average of $945; Wichita, Kansas, at $840; and Sioux Falls, South Dakota, with the lowest average of just $796.

    For two-bedroom rentals, the report lists Seattle, Little Rock, and Durham, North Carolina, as the top three cities experiencing the biggest rent increases. Seattle’s rent is up by almost 60 percent, followed by 54.7 percent for Little Rock and 54.2 percent for Durham.

    Conversely, the largest two-bedroom rental decreases were found in Fort Lauderdale, down by almost 43 percent, and St. Louis and Des Moines, Iowa, down by 28.2 percent and 20.6 percent, respectively.

    As with one-bedroom apartments, New York leads the way with the priciest options; the average two-bedroom apartment in the city rents for $8,346 per month. Boston, at $5,795  per month, is the second-most expensive two-bedroom rental market, followed by Oakland, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 20:50

  • FBI Tracks Down Mike Lindell On Hunting Trip, Surrounds His Car And Seizes Cell Phone
    FBI Tracks Down Mike Lindell On Hunting Trip, Surrounds His Car And Seizes Cell Phone

    Prominent Trump supporter and 2020 election integrity skeptic Mike Lindell says he was stopped by the FBI Tuesday and had his cell phone seized.

    While heading home from a hunting trip with a friend, Lindell said he was at a Hardees in Minnesota when “cars pulled up in front of us, to the side of us and behind us, and I said ‘they’re either bad guys or the FBI,'” he said. “Well, it turns out they were the FBI.

    More: 

    I can’t even imagine that you can take someone’s phone because they want me to be a witness in the Tina Peters case. But I’m not a witness, they just want my phone.”

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    Lindell is the latest Trump ally to receive a warrant or subpoena by the FBI. Last week, the Biden DOJ hit dozens of Trump aides and allies with subpoenas as part of their investigation into efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 US election over claims of fraud that handed Joe Biden the White House, as well as the run up to the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot.

    Interesting how the Biden DOJ waited more tha 18 months – right before midterms – to initiate legal action against Trumpworld. And Biden said he wouldn’t weaponize the Justice Department.

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 20:30

  • China Is Not Rebalancing, Its Flawed Dependence On Huge Exports Continues
    China Is Not Rebalancing, Its Flawed Dependence On Huge Exports Continues

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    China talks a game of trade reform but actions speak louder than words…

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    1. China’s export growth may have slowed compared to recent months, but it is nonetheless up 7.1% year on year in August. I don’t know what the global figures are, but I suspect that China continues to grow its share of total exports.

    2. This should seem pretty remarkable given the problems the Chinese economy faced, but it isn’t. The government continues to release measure after measure aimed – almost desperately – at keeping total production rising. And production has risen, even if only slowly.

    3. The real problem, which Beijing still seems unable to address, continues to be very weak domestic demand. Imports were barely up year on year, rising nominally by 0.3% and almost certainly falling in real terms. This is the third month of surging exports and flat imports.

    4. This shows just how terribly weak domestic demand continues to be. Between rising uncertainty, high unemployment and downward pressure on wages, Chinese households are completely unable to increase their consumption and, with it, their imports.

    5. The trade surplus for August was $79.4 billion, the sixth highest monthly trade surplus on record. This may no longer seem a big number, but it is 35% higher than the record-breaking August surpluses of 2020 and 2021, and it is 129% higher than in 2019.

    6. Year to date China’s trade surplus is $571 billion, or 54% higher than it was last year at this time. This is equal to roughly 4.8% of China’s GDP.

    Nixon Shock, the Reserve Currency Curse, and a Pending Currency Crisis

    It’s important to understand that the US dollar as a global reserve currency and the end of Bretton Woods II is what makes this possible.

    The US is the world’s consumer of last resort. Things have become increasingly unbalanced ever since Nixon closed the gold convertibility window. 

    Now, nations can inflate at will and they do. The result is soaring deficits and massive trade imbalances that were self-correcting under a gold standard. 

    For discussion, please see Nixon Shock, the Reserve Currency Curse, and a Pending Currency Crisis

    *  *  *

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 20:10

  • Kremlin Denies Plans For War Declaration & National Draft: "Not Under Discussion"
    Kremlin Denies Plans For War Declaration & National Draft: “Not Under Discussion”

    On Tuesday the Kremlin addressed widespread speculation and rumors that President Vladimir Putin is planning to issue a full declaration of war as Russian forces pull back from Kharkiv, in a Ukraine counteroffensive that Kiev leaders and their Western allies are hailing as a major success. A war declaration would trigger mass mobilization and a draft.

    “Russia is not planning to declare a mass national draft for the war in Ukraine,” the Kremlin stated, amid reports its forces are suffering fatigue, low moral and manpower shortages. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized this is not under discussion at this point: “Not at this point. No, we are not discussing that,” he said when asked about widespread reports, as quoted in TASS news.

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, via Reuters

    Peskov was then pressed about the degree to which Ukrainian forces had advanced into Russian lines in the northeast, amid ongoing heavy fighting, but he declined to address the ground situation. “This is for the Defense Ministry. I simply do not have accurate information,” he said.

    There does appear to be growing pressure from inside Russia to act, according to The Moscow Times

    Lawmaker Mikhail Sheremet, a member of the State Duma’s Security Committee and the ruling United Russia party, spoke out in favor of general mobilization on Monday, according to the URA.ru news agency. 

    “Without full mobilization, [without] switching to the war mode, including the economy, we will not achieve the desired results,” the agency quoted Sheremet as saying. 

    “I am talking about the fact that today society should be consolidated as much as possible and aim for victory,” said the deputy.

    There have meanwhile also been signs in Russian domestic media and among popular pundits of a narrative shift that is increasingly recognizing recent Russian losses and setbacks, and the need for a strategy overhaul, as well as growing criticism of how the “special operation” is being managed. Very likely there’s under-the-surface ratcheting tensions across the population due to mounting casualties among the country’s young men who’ve been thrust into battle these past seven months.

    For example Al Jazeera chronicles some recent reactions going back to last week as Ukraine forces began taking key towns in the northeast

    “There is no panic in Balakliya,” the Telegram channel Veteran’s Notes, which boasts 192,000 subscribers, wrote on September 6. A number of pro-Russian feeds, including that of famous talkshow host Vladimir Solovyov, reposted that message.

    By the following day, however, there was a more sullen tone. “Don’t expect good news today,” Veteran’s Notes warned.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Days later, a Russian defense ministry statement called the withdrawal of Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast a “regrouping”. Other examples from Russian media of a changing tone on the war include

    Speaking on the loss of Izyum, the host of a political talk show on Match TV, a sports channel, urged his viewers to “pray for our guys”.

    The government and its friendly voices in the media have acknowledged that Russian forces have withdrawn from previously held positions, but have avoided outwardly calling it a loss.

    Related to the question of a formal war declaration, looming large in the background is the continued unprecedented in size weapons pipeline coming from the US and NATO countries to Ukraine forces. There’s been widespread acknowledgement that US assistance, which has included intelligence-sharing, has greatly helped the recent Ukraine counteroffensive and territorial gains. This has led to the speculation that Putin could be getting ready to say “enough is enough” and expand the war.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 19:50

  • 'You Have To Get More Bearish' – Jeff Gundlach Says Buy Bonds, Sees S&P Hitting 3,000 On Over-Zealous Fed
    ‘You Have To Get More Bearish’ – Jeff Gundlach Says Buy Bonds, Sees S&P Hitting 3,000 On Over-Zealous Fed

    Billionaire investor Jeff Gundlach expects the S&P 500 Index to fall to 3,000 or about a 20%-25% drop from its current level, agreeing with comments made by Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd last week, citing a historical connection between price-to-earnings ratios for stocks and inflation.

    “The action of the credit market is consistent with economic weakness and stock market trouble,” Gundlach said in a CNBC interview.

    “I think you have to start becoming more bearish” in stocks.

    Despite the hotter-than-expected CPI print today – and the market’s surge in rate-hike expectations to a coin-flip between 75bps and 100bps, Gundlach said he believes the Fed should do a 25bps rate increase (though he expects the Fed will institute a 75 bps increase when it meets next week).

    “I would do 25 basis points,” Gundlach told the business network, because he is concerned the Fed might oversteer the economy and hasn’t paused long enough to see what affect the previous hikes have already had.

    Even as inflation continued to surprise to the upside, the so-called bond king believes deflation is now the bigger threat and suggested that long-term Treasuries will outperform next year as the overly aggressive Fed will slow down the economy.

    “Buy long-term Treasuries,” Gundlach told CNBC’s Scott Wapner at the Future Proof Festival.

    Notably, rate-cut expectations starting next year soared today (implying recessionary forces will push Powell back)…

    If inflation turns into deflation, the Fed will be forced to reverse its monetary policy, which could drive bond yields down.

    In spite of the fact that the narrative today is exactly the opposite, the deflation risk is much higher today than it’s been for the past two years. I’m not talking about next month. I’m talking about sometime later next year, certainly in 2023.”

    In terms of other asset classes, the DoubleLine CEO had some advice for crypto-enthusiasts.

    “I’d certainly not be a buyer [of bitcoin] today,” he said, following today’s carnage. But he added that “you buy crypto when they do free money again,” Gundlach said, referring to The Fed.

    Finally, Gundlach said he owns European stocks and sees the biggest opportunity coming in emerging markets.

    He added that he will not buy EM assets until the dollar breaks below its 200 moving avg

    …adding that “When it does, you want to be in big.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 19:10

  • Arizona Can't Enforce New Election Law In 2022 Election: Clinton-Appointed Judge
    Arizona Can’t Enforce New Election Law In 2022 Election: Clinton-Appointed Judge

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Arizona officials can’t enforce a new election measure in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a federal judge.

    Arizona Secretary of State and candidate for governor Katie Hobbs speaks to reporters in Tolleson, Ariz., on Aug. 2, 2022. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

    Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and other officials shall not “take any action to implement or enforce H.B. 2243 in a manner that would remove any voter’s eligibility to vote in the 2022 general election or disqualify any otherwise-valid ballot on the basis of H.B. 2243,” U.S. District Judge Susan Bolton, a Clinton appointee, said in the Sept. 8 order.

    Bolton accepted a joint agreement and proposed order outlined by the Arizona Asian American Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander for Equity Coalition and state officials, including Hobbs and Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich, presented to the court earlier on Sept. 8.

    The officials and the coalition, which sued over the legislation in August, agreed that “the provisions of H.B. 2243 should not operate in a manner that would prevent any voter from (1) voting in the upcoming November 2022 general election or (2) having their vote be counted.” Hobbs and Brnovich also decided that the changes to the state election code shouldn’t take effect until Jan. 1, 2023, because one of the laws that the legislation is amending isn’t effective itself until then.

    “While we are pleased with this early agreement that protects the right to vote in the next election, we remain steadfast in our commitment to continue to fight both of these voter suppression laws for the long term,” May Tiwamangkala, an official with the coalition, said in a statement. “We are in this fight to protect the rights of all voters in our state, including those from the AANHPI communities.”

    The offices of Hobbs, a Democrat who’s running for Arizona governor, and Brnovich, a Republican who lost in the state’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

    Democrats have stooped to a new level of shamefulness and depravity with their latest round of lies about Arizona’s common sense laws to ensure that our elections are accessible, secure, and trustworthy,” state Rep. Jake Hoffman, a Republican who sponsored the legislation, told The Epoch Times in an email.

    “Democrats’ cries of racism are laughable on their face and serve only to shine a spotlight on the Democrat Party’s long history of institutionalized racism and repeated attempts to disenfranchise millions of Americans throughout the last century and a half. Make no mistake about it, ensuring clean voter rolls and protecting the sanctity of Arizonans’ votes by prohibiting non-citizens and non-residents from casting illegal ballots benefits every single legal voter regardless of race, gender, income, and party.”

    Legislation

    The legislation amends a law concerning voter registration. It states that the registration will be canceled for a voter who moves to another state.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 18:50

  • Disney Employee, School Teacher Among 160 Arrested In Florida Human Trafficking Sting
    Disney Employee, School Teacher Among 160 Arrested In Florida Human Trafficking Sting

    A Disney employee, a corrections officer, and several school teachers were among 160 people arrested in a seven-day long undercover human trafficking sting in Polk County, Florida.

    According to WAFB9, the operation – “Fall Haul 2” – resulted in 52 felonies and 216 misdemeanor charges. One of the more notable arrests was that of 41-year-old computer technician for Oak Ridge High School, Cameron Burke, who was out on bond for having a sexual relationship with a 15-year-old student that began in 2020.

    Other notables include a deputy Georgia police chief, a high school math teacher, a bellhop employed by Disney, and a freelance photographer often contacted by Disney.

    The bellhop, Guillermo Perez, 57, was arrested after trying to have sex with an undercover detective for $80, while the freelance photographer, 26-year-old Samy Claude, reportedly offered an undercover cop a bag of sour Skittles.

    The correctional officer, Keith Nieves, 24, was arrested on two counts of soliciting a prostitute.

    The Georgia Deputy Police Chief, Jason DiPrima, 49, allegedly gave an undercover detective $180 and a multi-pack of White Claws.

    “He is no longer a police officer in Cartersville, Georgia, and he needs to work on reconstructing his life with his family. He did a very mean, nasty thing to his family and he certainly embarrassed all the people of Cartersville,” said Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd during a press conference. “The Cartersville Police Department is a very professional police department in Georgia and they didn’t deserve what Jason (DiPrima) did.”

    The oldest of the arrests is 64, while the youngest is 19 years old, according to officials.

    Out of the 160 arrests, 15 people were from states other than Florida, and one was from Puerto Rico.

    Of the people who were arrested, police say 26 of them said they were married.

    Detectives also said they seized cocaine, heroin, meth, MDMA and marijuana from those they arrested as well. –WAFB9

    “Where would we be with an undercover operation and no Disney employees? Oh yes, we always have Disney employees,” joked Judd.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 18:30

  • Airline Chaos Could Persist Until 2024, Despite Efforts To Cure Woes
    Airline Chaos Could Persist Until 2024, Despite Efforts To Cure Woes

    Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    After a record-breaking summer of angst, aggravation, and anger at America’s airports, little relief may be in sight.

    The problem came into sharper focus during the past few weeks with airline complaints in May and June soaring 270 percent above pre-pandemic levels.

    Passengers make their way through a security line Thursday, June 30, 2022, at the Pittsburgh International Airport in Moon Township, Pa. The airport saw an influx of travelers departing Pittsburgh before the Fourth of July holiday weekend. (Morgan Timms/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette via AP)

    While airlines and federal officials recently announced improved customer service and information-sharing practices with travelers, critics say those measures amount to baby steps. They advocate bigger, more meaningful strides to alleviate the chaos and restore order.

    When we look at the misery that we’ve seen this last summer, the thought is: How long could it last?” Jay Ratliff, an aviation expert, told The Epoch Times on Sept. 9.

    Ratliff said that the problems predate the COVID-19 pandemic, are more complex than many people realize, and may persist until 2024.

    A sign alerts travelers to the danger of COVID-19 at LaGuardia Airport, during the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in New York, on June 29, 2020. (Brendan McDermid/Reuters)

    Pandemic Exposed Flaws In System

    While the COVID-19 pandemic was in full swing and air travel slowed to a trickle, consumer complaints and demands for refunds and other compensation burgeoned.

    From January 2020 to June 2021, the the Department of Transportation received 124,823 airline complaints; 83 percent involved refunds. In contrast, the agency received just 15,324 airline complaints in 2019, a DOT analysis says; only about 10 percent of that year’s disputes focused on refunds.

    The number of DOT complaints is especially remarkable because, airline passengers would customarily lodge complaints directly with airlines and were unaware that they could escalate their concerns to the DOT, Ratliff said.

    However, the federal agency’s ability to intervene is somewhat limited because there currently is “no requirement for an airline or a ticket agent to compensate passengers holding non-refundable tickets if they cancel air travel,” the DOT says.

    When the pandemic hit, airlines’ systems were overwhelmed with an unprecedented influx of refund requests. The air carriers also didn’t have enough money to make good on those requests quickly.

    Passengers entitled to refunds who normally would have received them promptly were left waiting or, in other cases, denied refunds and offered vouchers or travel credits instead,” the DOT said. Some customers faced circumstances that prevented them from taking advantage of the vouchers or travel credits. They ended up with “no compensation at all,” the DOT said.

    Ripple effects of the refund requests spread as the federal government, ticket agents, and credit card companies mediated disputes with disgruntled airline customers.

    Pilots talk after exiting a Delta Airlines flight at the Ronald Reagan National Airport, in Arlington, Va., on July 22, 2020. (Michael A. McCoy/Getty Images)

    Staff Shortage Woes

    Meanwhile, even though the federal government provided emergency funding to keep airlines afloat, the companies were forced to cut costs. They furloughed and laid off tens of thousands of employees. As of last year, U.S. airlines employed 4.8 million full-time employees, compared to the pre-pandemic staffing level of almost 5.4 million employees.

    Many highly-compensated employees fell off the rosters because they were offered early retirement packages or quit due to stressful conditions.

    Airline professionals such as pilots and flight attendants require extensive training; replacing them is therefore time-consuming and challenging, Ratliff said.

    Some people theorize that airlines fired large numbers of pilots for refusing to take the government- and airline-mandated COVID-19 inoculations.

    But industry sources doubt that. They say solid statistics are hard to come by. But they told The Epoch Times that many pilots remained employed because they either got the jab or avoided it via a religious exemption.

    Medical conditions are probably responsible for grounding more pilots than vaccine-mandate firings ever did, the sources said. They blame long-term illnesses, some possibly caused by side effects of the shots or consequences of COVID-19.

    In addition, the commercial aviation industry was already facing a pilot shortage several years before the pandemic. That’s because recruiting of pilots from the military, a primary feeder system for commercial airlines, has declined.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 18:10

  • "An Ocean Of Red…"
    “An Ocean Of Red…”

    What a shitshow!

    Everyone was so sure, so confident, and then boom, CPI printed way hotter than expected…

    …and the soft-landing dream was over…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    While markets turmoiled dramatically, it was the STIRs that highlight the major shift.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The odds of a 100bps next week soared to 47%, the odds of a 75bps hike in November jumped to 60%, and the odds of a 100bps hike in December spike to 50%…

    Source: Bloomberg

    All of this sent rate-hike expectations for year-end massively higher (actually the biggest jump in history)… and at the same time saw the implied odds of that sparking a recession surge as expectations for subsequent rate-cuts jumped dramatically too…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The terminal rate for Fed rates is now just below 4.33% in April 2023…

    Source: Bloomberg

    All of which erased much of the last week’s squeeze-driven surge higher in stocks…The Dow has lost ALL of its gains from the last week’s squeeze…

    “Aaand it’s gone!”

    Nasdaq was the day’s biggest loser, down over 5% – its worst day since March 2020… The Dow’s 1200 point loss was the worst day since June 2020…

    For the first time since March 2020, every Nasdaq 100 stock closed red…

    One day after AAPL’s best day since May, it suffered its worst day since May…

    As the short squeeze of the last few days abruptly ended…

    Source: Bloomberg

    And all the US Majors crashed back below key technical levels (50DMAs)…

    Bonds were a bloodbath today with the short-end monkeyhammered most…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Which sent the yield curve dramatically flatter – with the infamous ‘last hope standing’ 3M10Y spread plunging towards inversion…

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar ripped higher, erasing much of the last few days’ ‘dovish’-hope weakness…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos were clubbed like a baby seal with Bitcoin puking from over $22500 to almost $20000 (down over 10% – its worst drop since the June collapse)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    Spot gold puked back below $1700 but found support there again…

    Source: Bloomberg

    But, after the Biden admin said it was mulling refilling the SPR, oil prices rallied and almost made it into positive territory on the day…

    Finally, it’s catch-down time for stocks once again as tightening expectations slam reality back into the hope-filled face of stocks…

    Source: Bloomberg

    And bear in mind that we have a $3.2 trillion options expiration on Friday just as the buyback blackout window is closing – brace!

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 18:00

  • Not Just Nancy: Lawmakers Have Been Trading Like Drunken Insider Sailors
    Not Just Nancy: Lawmakers Have Been Trading Like Drunken Insider Sailors

    Approximately 3,700 stock trades reported by 97 current lawmakers posed potential conflicts of interest, as their financial dealings intersected with the work of committees on which they serve, according to an extensive analysis by the New York Times of trades spanning a two year period (2019 – 2021).

    To examine the potential for conflicts, The Times used a comprehensive database called Capitol Trades, which was compiled from congressional trading disclosures by the German financial data firm 2iQ Research.

    The Times then matched the trades against committee assignments, hearings and investigations to construct a picture of how members’ congressional work and their personal financial transactions could potentially intersect. -NYT

    In just one example, Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D-CA) reported that his wife sold shares in Boeing on March 5, 2020, the day before a House committee on which he sits released a scathing report on the company’s handling of its 737 Max jet, which had been involved in two fatal crashes.

    Rep. Alan Lowenthal (D-Calif.), whose wife sold Boeing shares in March 2020 — just a day before a committee her husband sat on released a bombshell report.

    In another case, Ohio Republican Bob Gibbs, who sits on the House Oversight Committee, bought shares in pharmaceutical company AbbVie in 2020 and 2021 while the committee was investigating the company and five rivals over high drug prices.

    Outgoing GOP Rep. Bob Gibbs

    Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California’s filings show that his family members bought or sold shares in AbbVie during the committee’s review, as well as seven other companies under scrutiny by the oversight panel on which Khanna sat.

    According to the report, “many instances show how legislative work and investment decisions can overlap in ways that at a minimum can leave the appearance of a conflict and that sometimes form a troubling pattern — even if they technically fall within the rules.

    13 lawmakers were found to have traded in companies that were under investigation by committees they werved on.

    “The American people don’t want us day trading for profit, and engaging in active trading of the very equities that are connected to the policies that we are deciding on and voting on every day,” said Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), who is co-sponsoring a bill in the House that would require members to put investments in a blind trust – a portfolio managed by an outside adviser who takes no input from the owner.

    The 3,700 potentially conflicted trades constitute over 10% of transactions by members of Congress over the period in question.

    44 of the 50 members of Congress who were most active in the markets bought or sold securities in companies over which their committee assignments could give them some degree of knowledge or influence. –NYT

    Under the 2012 STOCK Act – the sole piece of legislation designed to rein in lawmakers’ trades, most members of Congress are still allowed to make trades that could conflict with their legislative duties – as long as a disclosure is made within 45 days.

    “You’re not getting members of Congress to self-regulate the money they can or can’t make,” one DC insider told the NY Post. “Why would they do something that doesn’t benefit them?”

    Hilariously, Nancy Pelosi isn’t mentioned in the report, because she does not sit on any legislative committees.

    It’s good to be queen…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 17:50

  • The Only Potential Benefit Of Central Bank Digital Currencies: Bitcoin Adoption
    The Only Potential Benefit Of Central Bank Digital Currencies: Bitcoin Adoption

    Authored by Pierre Gildenhuys via BitcoinMagazine.com,

    Central Bank Digital Currencies are a dystopian implementation of money and will only benefit society by encouraging people to adopt bitcoin…

    Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are being actively developed and discussed in many major nations in the world including 19 of the G20 countries, and around 105 others worldwide, as shown by Atlantic Council statistics in 2022. They are being advanced rapidly and it is expected that some nations such as Australia, South Korea and the U.S. will start implementing CBDCs in the near future, following the lead of China, who recently began launching theirs in early 2022.

    This is not recent news, but it is something which should be periodically mentioned, as it should scare all of us or at least be of some concern to anyone that utilizes any form of money in their daily lives. There is only one potential benefit to CBDCs: Essentially, governments causing the collapse of their own currencies by removing as many properties of money as they can before people realize that it is no longer salable to anyone else in their nation or around the world.

    CBDCs are said to be inspired by bitcoin — of course, these countries that are rolling these out are likely building them to be the perfect antithesis to the beautifully built bitcoin — with the only potential similarity being a distributed public ledger. However, I postulate that in many governments’ eyes, “a public ledger” denotes being owned, and therefore only accessible by the State because they are the voice of the people (in theory).

    The expected horrors of CBDCs are discussed at length by many Bitcoiners on Twitter and elsewhere, but very few that I have found have had anything good to say, which I would like to change.

    CBDCs will most likely implement primarily Keynesian principles, as it seems to be the prevailing school of economics in most of the western world. Whichever principles a United States CBDC adopts will likely serve as the blueprint for all others. Some of these principles could be money that can expire, be automatically taxed, only be spent in certain sectors and be a fully permission-based form of transaction, meaning that people will be forced to make specific transactions that they may not want, forcing a heightened time preference or being forced to forego investments in sectors of their choosing. Purchases of bitcoin using CBDCs will very likely become impossible or at least increasingly difficult, as no government wants a money competing with the one that they control.

    This is a terrifying prospect. How will Bitcoiners and new adopters acquire more bitcoin before the fiat system inflates itself into collapse? Well, this will possibly create a more circular economy, as fewer people will want to hold their transactional power in the form of a fully centralized and supervised system. They will very likely make the decision to start paying and accepting bitcoin for each and every transaction. This way, they are not forced to spend their money to attempt to “stimulate economic growth” by spending their expiring CBDCs that they would have otherwise saved for a rainy day, or to avoid additional unjust taxes. This is very similar to the exceedingly common practice of many businesses around the world providing their services at a discount for cash payments to avoid paying taxes on those services.

    This was particularly prevalent in places such as Greece, where the practice allegedly started because Greeks did not want to pay taxes to the “foreign” Ottomans who controlled the region at the time. The practice has evidently continued because people feel that an additional taxation on everyday transactions from any power, be it local or foreign, is unjust and excessive. In the eyes of some, this is a form of corruption; however, it should not be labeled as such because corruption implies that the people who are hiding these transactions are in positions of power that they are exploiting, as opposed to being the ones who are exploited by unnecessary taxation by their government.

    It is likely that CBDCs are likely going to phase out the small amount of paper currency that still forms part of world economies today. This means that these countries will rely on technological education and word of mouth explanations as to how it works. This will cause a rise in technological know-how in these nations, meaning it should be ever easier to onboard otherwise unwilling members of society to bitcoin once they realize the false value they are holding instead of a hard money.

    In other words, CBDCs will possibly be the perfect trigger to cause mass adoption and spark a bitcoin circular economy. At the end of the day, it does not matter how much one loves their government or opposes its very existence, the sheer inconvenience of having everyone’s transactions moderated and limited based on arbitrary metrics, such as carbon emission scores or nutritive value scores is enough to turn anyone away from that monetary medium.

    With peoples’ savings potentially being eaten away to promote faster and more spending overall — as has been done with the inflationary practices of the past several decades — people will realize how bad specific Keynesian principles are. These principles are promoted and considered true by many modern economists today. The average people in the modern world using those principles practically have to invest all of their wealth to ensure they are not bankrupted by inflation, while running the risk of potential malinvestments. Many people would be significantly more productive to society by developing their own businesses and would also be happier overall if they could just store their wealth in hard money that consistently appreciates in value with economic growth, instead of being forced to create the meme economy that we have experienced in the past few years. This would likely worsen with the implementation of CBDCs.

    CBDC implementation and adoption will likely not be an overnight change. The time that it would probably take for bitcoin adoption to occur would be heavily dependent on which terrifying features the specific CBDCs implement. These CBDCs will cause a great deal of pain and suffering over the time which they are actively used. The pain that they will bring and the practices they will implement aren’t anything new, but are simply a furthering of currently used practices. This will continue until people begin interacting pseudonymously using bitcoin for their store of wealth and move entirely away from any form of fiat currencies.

    Creating a vibrant, successful circular economy will hasten the adoption and incentive for usage of bitcoin. Harder money with higher salability needs to offer no better incentive for adoption than a rapidly failing currency due to a decline in salability and an increase in inflation. If no one wants your money, why do you keep it? Today, Zimbabwean dollars hold value only as collectors’ items, but have no use for goods and services. In turn, this allowed multiple competing currencies to take its place (primarily the South African rand and the U.S. dollar) until the dollar inevitably won and all of Zimbabwe became dollarized. The same will likely happen to the dollar, and bitcoin will take its place due to inflation and a likely CBDC which will detract all that is good from the dollar.

    There are many other steps that Bitcoin will need to take to allow simplistic adoption for the greater world population. More platforms and wallets will need to begin offering Lightning payments and the use of SMS (text message) transactions, such as the recent development in South Africa. The outlook is somewhat hopeful on the front of CBDCs and their ability to push more people out of fiat and into the world of Bitcoin.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 17:30

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Today’s News 13th September 2022

  • The Specter Of Germany Is Rising
    The Specter Of Germany Is Rising

    Authored by Diana Johnstone via ConsortiumNews.com,

    The European Union is girding for a long war against Russia that appears clearly contrary to European economic interests and social stability. A war that is apparently irrational – as many are – has deep emotional roots and claims ideological justification. Such wars are hard to end because they extend outside the range of rationality.

    Olaf Scholz, Federal Chancellor of Germany, meets Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, in Kiev, Feb. 14, 2022. (President of Ukraine)

    For decades after the Soviet Union entered Berlin and decisively defeated the Third Reich, Soviet leaders worried about the threat of “German revanchism.” Since World War II could be seen as German revenge for being deprived of victory in World War I, couldn’t aggressive German Drang nach Osten be revived, especially if it enjoyed Anglo-American support? There had always been a minority in U.S. and U.K. power circles that would have liked to complete Hitler’s war against the Soviet Union.

    It was not the desire to spread communism, but the need for a buffer zone to stand in the way of such dangers that was the primary motivation for the ongoing Soviet political and military clampdown on the tier of countries from Poland to Bulgaria that the Red Army had wrested from Nazi occupation.

    This concern waned considerably in the early 1980s as a young German generation took to the streets in peace demonstrations against the stationing of nuclear “Euromissiles” which could increase the risk of nuclear war on German soil. The movement created the image of a new peaceful Germany. I believe that Mikhail Gorbachev took this transformation seriously.

    On June 15, 1989, Gorbachev came to Bonn, which was then the modest capital of a deceptively modest West Germany. Apparently delighted with the warm and friendly welcome, Gorbachev stopped to shake hands with people along the way in that peaceful university town that had been the scene of large peace demonstrations.

    I was there and experienced his unusually warm, firm handshake and eager smile. I have no doubt that Gorbachev sincerely believed in a “common European home” where East and West Europe could live happily side by side united by some sort of democratic socialism.

    Gorbachov on June 13, 1989 in the market-square in Bonn. (Jüppsche/Wikimedia Commons)

    Gorbachev died at age 91 two weeks ago, on Aug. 30. His dream of Russia and Germany living happily in their “common European home” had soon been fatally undermined by the Clinton administration’s go-ahead to eastward expansion of NATO. But the day before Gorbachev’s death, leading German politicians in Prague wiped out any hope of such a happy end by proclaiming their leadership of a Europe dedicated to combating the Russian enemy.

    These were politicians from the very parties – the SPD (Social Democratic Party) and the Greens – that took the lead in the 1980s peace movement.

    German Europe Must Expand Eastward

    German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is a colorless SPD politician, but his Aug. 29 speech in Prague was inflammatory in its implications. Scholz called for an expanded, militarized European Union under German leadership. He claimed that the Russian operation in Ukraine raised the question of “where the dividing line will be in the future between this free Europe and a neo-imperial autocracy.” We cannot simply watch, he said, “as free countries are wiped off the map and disappear behind walls or iron curtains.”

    (Note: the conflict in Ukraine is clearly the unfinished business of the collapse of the Soviet Union, aggravated by malicious outside provocation. As in the Cold War, Moscow’s defensive reactions are interpreted as harbingers of Russian invasion of Europe, and thus a pretext for arms buildups.)

    To meet this imaginary threat, Germany will lead an expanded, militarized EU. First, Scholz told his European audience in the Czech capital, “I am committed to the enlargement of the European Union to include the states of the Western Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova and, in the long term, Georgia”. Worrying about Russia moving the dividing line West is a bit odd while planning to incorporate three former Soviet States, one of which (Georgia) is geographically and culturally very remote from Europe but on Russia’s doorstep.

    In the “Western Balkans”, Albania and four extremely weak statelets left from former Yugoslavia (North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia-Herzegovina and widely unrecognized Kosovo) mainly produce emigrants and are far from EU economic and social standards. Kosovo and Bosnia are militarily occupied de facto NATO protectorates. Serbia, more solid than the others, shows no signs of renouncing its beneficial relations with Russia and China, and popular enthusiasm for “Europe” among Serbs has faded.

    Adding these member states will achieve “a stronger, more sovereign, geopolitical European Union,” said Scholz. A “more geopolitical Germany” is more like it. As the EU grows eastward, Germany is “in the center” and will do everything to bring them all together. So, in addition to enlargement, Scholz calls for “a gradual shift to majority decisions in common foreign policy” to replace the unanimity required today.

    What this means should be obvious to the French. Historically, the French have defended the consensus rule so as not to be dragged into a foreign policy they don’t want. French leaders have exalted the mythical “Franco-German couple” as guarantor of European harmony, mainly to keep German ambitions under control.

    But Scholz says he doesn’t want “an EU of exclusive states or directorates,” which implies the final divorce of that “couple.” With an EU of 30 or 36 states, he notes, “fast and pragmatic action is needed.” And he can be sure that German influence on most of these poor, indebted and often corrupt new Member States will produce the needed majority.

    France has always hoped for an EU security force separate from NATO in which the French military would play a leading role. But Germany has other ideas. “NATO remains the guarantor of our security,” said Scholz, rejoicing that President Biden is “a convinced trans-atlanticist.”

    “Every improvement, every unification of European defense structures within the EU framework strengthens NATO,” Scholz said. “Together with other EU partners, Germany will therefore ensure that the EU’s planned rapid reaction force is operational in 2025 and will then also provide its core.

    This requires a clear command structure. Germany will face up to this responsibility “when we lead the rapid reaction force in 2025,” Scholz said. It has already been decided that Germany will support Lithuania with a rapidly deployable brigade and NATO with further forces in a high state of readiness.

    Serving to Lead … Where?

    Robert Habeck speaking at protest before Green Party headquarters, Berlin, Oct. 28, 2020. (Leonhard Lenz/Wikimedia Commons)

    In short, Germany’s military buildup will give substance to Robert Habeck’s notorious statement in Washington last March that: “The stronger Germany serves, the greater its role.” The Green’s Habeck is Germany’s economics minister and the second most powerful figure in Germany’s current government.

    The remark was well understood in Washington: by serving the U.S.-led Western empire, Germany is strengthening its role as European leader. Just as the U.S. arms, trains and occupies Germany, Germany will provide the same services for smaller EU states, notably to its east.

    Since the start of the Russian operation in Ukraine, German politician Ursula von der Leyen has used her position as head of the EU Commission to impose ever more drastic sanctions on Russia, leading to the threat of a serious European energy crisis this winter. Her hostility to Russia seems boundless. In Kiev last April she called for rapid EU membership for Ukraine, notoriously the most corrupt country in Europe and far from meeting EU standards. She proclaimed that “Russia will descend into economic, financial and technological decay, while Ukraine is marching towards a European future.” For von der Leyen, Ukraine is “fighting our war.” All of this goes far beyond her authority to speak for the EU’s 27 Members, but nobody stops her.

    Germany’s Green Party foreign minister Annalena Baerbock is every bit as intent on “ruining Russia.” Proponent of a “feminist foreign policy”, Baerbock expresses policy in personal terms. “If I give the promise to people in Ukraine, we stand with you as long as you need us,” she told the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy (NED)-sponsored Forum 2000 in Prague on Aug. 31, speaking in English. “Then I want to deliver no matter what my German voters think, but I want to deliver to the people of Ukraine.”

    “People will go on the street and say, we cannot pay our energy prices, and I will say, ‘Yes I know so we will help you with social measures. […] We will stand with Ukraine and this means the sanctions will stay also til winter time even if it gets really tough for politicians.’”

    Certainly, support for Ukraine is strong in Germany, but perhaps because of the looming energy shortage, a recent Forsa poll indicates that some 77 percent of Germans would favor diplomatic efforts to end the war – which should be the business of the foreign minister. But Baerbock shows no interest in diplomacy, only in “strategic failure” for Russia – however long it takes.

    In the 1980s peace movement, a generation of Germans was distancing itself from that of their parents and vowed to overcome “enemy images” inherited from past wars. Curiously, Baerbock, born in 1980, has referred to her grandfather who fought in the Wehrmacht as somehow having contributed to European unity. Is this the generational pendulum?

    The Little Revanchists

    Stepan Bandera torchlight parade in Kiev, Jan. 1, 2020. (A1/Wikimedia Commons)

    There is reason to surmise that current German Russophobia draws much of its legitimization from the Russophobia of former Nazi allies in smaller European countries.

    While German anti-Russian revanchism may have taken a couple of generations to assert itself, there were a number of smaller, more obscure revanchisms that flourished at the end of the European war that were incorporated into United States Cold War operations. Those little revanchisms were not subjected to the denazification gestures or Holocaust guilt imposed on Germany. Rather, they were welcomed by the C.I.A., Radio Free Europe and Congressional committees for their fervent anticommunism. They were strengthened politically in the United States by anticommunist diasporas from Eastern Europe.

    Of these, the Ukrainian diaspora was surely the largest, the most intensely political and the most influential, in both Canada and the American Middle West. Ukrainian fascists who had previously collaborated with Nazi invaders were the most numerous and active, leading the Bloc of Anti-Bolshevik Nations with links to German, British and U.S. Intelligence.

    Eastern European Galicia, not to be confused with Spanish Galicia, has been back and forth part of Russia and Poland for centuries. After World War II it was divided between Poland and Ukraine. Ukrainian Galicia is the center of a virulent brand of Ukrainian nationalism, whose principal World War II hero was Stepan Bandera. This nationalism can properly be called “fascist” not simply because of superficial signs – its symbols, salutes or tatoos – but because it has always been fundamentally racist and violent.

    Incited by Western powers, Poland, Lithuania and the Habsburg Empire, the key to Ukrainian nationalism was that it was Western, and thus superior. Since Ukrainians and Russians stem from the same population, pro-Western Ukrainian ultra-nationalism was built on imaginary myths of racial differences: Ukrainians were the true Western whatever-it-was, whereas Russians were mixed with “Mongols” and thus an inferior race. Banderist Ukrainian nationalists have openly called for elimination of Russians as such, as inferior beings.

    So long as the Soviet Union existed, Ukrainian racial hatred of Russians had anticommunism as its cover, and Western intelligence agencies could support them on the “pure” ideological grounds of the fight against Bolshevism and Communism. But now that Russia is no longer ruled by communists, the mask has fallen, and the racist nature of Ukrainian ultra-nationalism is visible – for all who want to see it.

    However, Western leaders and media are determined not to notice.

    Ukraine is not just like any Western country. It is deeply and dramatically divided between Donbass in the East, Russian territories given to Ukraine by the Soviet Union, and the anti-Russian West, where Galacia is located. Russia’s defense of Donbass, wise or unwise, by no means indicates a Russian intention to invade other countries. This false alarm is the pretext for the remilitarization of Germany in alliance with the Anglo-Saxon powers against Russia.

    The Yugoslav Prelude

    Cutting firewood in Sarajevo during wars that broke up Yugoslavia, 1993. (Christian Maréchal/Wikimedia Commons)

    This process began in the 1990s, with the breakup of Yugoslavia.

    Yugoslavia was not a member of the Soviet bloc. Precisely for that reason, the country got loans from the West which in the 1970s led to a debt crisis in which the leaders of each of the six federated republics wanted to shove the debt onto others. This favored separatist tendencies in the relatively rich Slovenian and Croatian republics, tendencies enforced by ethnic chauvinism and encouragement from outside powers, especially Germany.

    During World War II, German occupation had split the country apart. Serbia, allied to France and Britain in World War I, was subject to a punishing occupation. Idyllic Slovenia was absorbed into the Third Reich, while Germany supported an independent Croatia, ruled by the fascist Ustasha party, which included most of Bosnia, scene of the bloodiest internal fighting. When the war ended, many Croatian Ustasha emigrated to Germany, the United States and Canada, never giving up the hope of reviving secessionist Croatian nationalism.

    In Washington in the 1990s, members of Congress got their impressions of Yugoslavia from a single expert: 35-year-old Croatian-American Mira Baratta, assistant to Sen. Bob Dole (Republican presidential candidate in 1996). Baratta’s grandfather had been an important Ustasha officer in Bosnia and her father was active in the Croatian diaspora in California. Baratta won over not only Dole but virtually the whole Congress to the Croatian version of Yugoslav conflicts blaming everything on the Serbs.

    In Europe, Germans and Austrians, most notably Otto von Habsburg, heir to the defunct Austro-Hungarian Empire and member of the European Parliament from Bavaria, succeeded in portraying Serbs as the villains, thus achieving an effective revenge against their historic World War I enemy, Serbia. In the West, it became usual to identify Serbia as “Russia’s historic ally”, forgetting that in recent history Serbia’s closest allies were Britain and especially France.

    In September 1991, a leading German Christian Democratic politician and constitutional lawyer explained why Germany should promote the breakup of Yugoslavia by recognizing the Slovenian and Croat secessionist Yugoslav republics. (Former CDU Minister of Defense Rupert Scholz at the 6th Fürstenfeldbrucker Symposium for the Leadership of the German Military and Business, held September 23 – 24, 1991.)

    By ending the division of Germany, Rupert Scholz said, “We have, so to speak, overcome and mastered the most important consequences of the Second World War … but in other areas we are still dealing with the consequences of the First World War” – which, he noted “started in Serbia.”

    “Yugoslavia, as a consequence of the First World War, is a very artificial construction, never compatible with the idea of self-determination,” Rupert Scholz said. He concluded: “In my opinion, Slovenia and Croatia must be immediately recognized internationally. (…) When this recognition has taken place, the Yugoslavian conflict will no longer be a domestic Yugoslav problem, where no international intervention can be permitted.”

    And indeed, recognition was followed by massive Western intervention which continues to this day. By taking sides, Germany, the United States and NATO ultimately produced a disastrous result, a half dozen statelets, with many unsettled issues and heavily dependent on Western powers. Bosnia-Herzegovina is under military occupation as well as the dictates of a “High Representative” who happens to be German. It has lost about half its population to emigration.

    Only Serbia shows signs of independence, refusing to join in Western sanctions on Russia, despite heavy pressure. For Washington strategists the breakup of Yugoslavia was an exercise in using ethnic divisions to break up larger entities, the USSR and then Russia.

    Humanitarian Bombing

    Western politicians and media persuaded the public that the 1999 NATO bombing of Serbia was a “humanitarian” war, generously waged to “protect the Kosovars” (after multiple assassinations by armed secessionists provoked Serbian authorities into the inevitable repression used as pretext for the bombing).

    But the real point of the Kosovo war was that it transformed NATO from a defensive into an aggressive alliance, ready to wage war anywhere, without U.N. mandate, on whatever pretext it chose.

    This lesson was clear to the Russians. After the Kosovo war, NATO could no longer credibly claim that it was a purely “defensive” alliance.

    As soon as Serbian President Milosevic, to save his country’s infrastructure from NATO destruction, agreed to allow NATO troops to enter Kosovo, the U.S. unceremoniously grabbed a huge swath territory to build the its first big U.S. military base in the Balkans. NATO troops are still there.

    Just as the United States rushed to build that base in Kosovo, it was clear what to expect of the U.S. after it succeeded in 2014 to install a government in Kiev eager to join NATO. This would be the opportunity for the U.S. to take over the Russian naval base in Crimea. Since it was known that the majority of the population in Crimea wanted to return to Russia (as it had from 1783 to 1954), Putin was able to forestall this threat by holding a popular referendum confirming its return.

    East European Revanchism Captures the EU

    The call by German Chancellor Scholz to enlarge the European Union by up to nine new members recalls the enlargements of 2004 and 2007 that brought in twelve new members, nine of them from the former Soviet bloc, including the three Baltic States once part of the Soviet Union.

    That enlargement already shifted the balance eastward and enhanced German influence. In particular, the political elites of Poland and especially the three Baltic States, were heavily under the influence of the United States and Britain, where many had lived in exile during Soviet rule. They brought into EU institutions a new wave of fanatic anticommunism, not always distinguishable from Russophobia.

    The European Parliament, obsessed with virtue signaling in regard to human rights, was particularly receptive to the zealous anti-totalitarianism of its new Eastern European members.

     European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. (UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe)

    Revanchism and the Memory Weapon

    As an aspect of anti-communist lustration, or purges, Eastern European States sponsored “Memory Institutes” devoted to denouncing the crimes of communism. Of course, such campaigns were used by far-right politicians to cast suspicion on the left in general. As explained by European scholar Zoltan Dujisin, “anticommunist memory entrepreneurs” at the head of these institutes succeeded in lifting their public information activities from the national, to the European Union level, using Western bans on Holocaust denial to complain, that while Nazi crimes had been condemned and punished at Nuremberg, communist crimes had not.

    The tactic of the anti-communist entrepreneurs was to demand that references to the Holocaust be accompanied by denunciations of the Gulag. This campaign had to deal with a delicate contradiction since it tended to challenge the uniqueness of the Holocaust, a dogma essential to gaining financial and political support from West European memory institutes.

    In 2008, the EP adopted a resolution establishing August 23 as “European Day of Remembrance for the victims of Stalinism and Nazism” – for the first time adopting what had been a fairly isolated far right equation of. A 2009 EP resolution on “European Conscience and Totalitarianism” called for support of national institutes specializing in totalitarian history.

    Dujisin explains, “Europe is now haunted by the specter of a new memory. The Holocaust’s singular standing as a negative founding formula of European integration, the culmination of long-standing efforts from prominent Western leaders … is increasingly challenged by a memory of communism, which disputes its uniqueness.”

    East European memory institutes together formed the “Platform of European Memory and Conscience,” which between 2012 and 2016 organized a series of exhibits on “Totalitarianism in Europe: Fascism—Nazism—Communism,” traveling to museums, memorials, foundations, city halls, parliaments, cultural centers, and universities in 15 European countries, supposedly to “improve public awareness and education about the gravest crimes committed by the totalitarian dictatorships.”

    Under this influence, the European Parliament on Sept. 19, 2019 adopted a resolution “on the importance of European Remembrance for the Future of Europe” that went far beyond equating political crimes by proclaiming a distinctly Polish interpretation of history as European Union policy. It goes so far as to proclaim that the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact is responsible for World War II – and thus Soviet Russia is as guilty of the war as Nazi Germany.

    The resolution,

    “Stresses that the Second World War, the most devastating war in Europe’s history, was started as an immediate result of the notorious Nazi-Soviet Treaty on Non-Aggression of 23 August 1939, also known as the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, and its secret protocols, whereby two totalitarian regimes that shared the goal of world conquest divided Europe into two zones of influence;”

    It further:

    “Recalls that the Nazi and communist regimes carried out mass murders, genocide and deportations and caused a loss of life and freedom in the 20th century on a scale unseen in human history, and recalls the horrific crime of the Holocaust perpetrated by the Nazi regime; condemns in the strongest terms the acts of aggression, crimes against humanity and mass human rights violations perpetrated by the Nazi, communist and other totalitarian regimes;”

    This of course not only directly contradicts the Russian celebration of the “Great Patriotic War” to defeat the Nazi invasion, it also took issue with the recent efforts of Russian President Vladimir Putin to put the Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement in the context of prior refusals of Eastern European states, notably Poland, to ally with Moscow against Hitler.

    But the EP resolution:

    “Is deeply concerned about the efforts of the current Russian leadership to distort historical facts and whitewash crimes committed by the Soviet totalitarian regime and considers them a dangerous component of the information war waged against democratic Europe that aims to divide Europe, and therefore calls on the Commission to decisively counteract these efforts;”

    Thus the importance of Memory for the future, turns out to be an ideological declaration of war against Russia based on interpretations of World War II, especially since the memory entrepreneurs implicitly suggest that the past crimes of communism deserve punishment – like the crimes of Nazism. It is not impossible that this line of thought arouses some tacit satisfaction among certain individuals in Germany.

    When Western leaders speak of “economic war against Russia,” or “ruining Russia” by arming and supporting Ukraine, one wonders whether they are consciously preparing World War III, or trying to provide a new ending to World War II. Or will the two merge?

    As it shapes up, with NATO openly trying to “overextend” and thus defeat Russia with a war of attrition in Ukraine, it is somewhat as if Britain and the United States, some 80 years later, switched sides and joined German-dominated Europe to wage war against Russia, alongside the heirs to Eastern European anticommunism, some of whom were allied to Nazi Germany.

    History may help understand events, but the cult of memory easily becomes the cult of revenge. Revenge is a circle with no end. It uses the past to kill the future. Europe needs clear heads looking to the future, able to understand the present.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 09/13/2022 – 02:00

  • Bear Traps' Highest Conviction Trade: A Perfect Storm Is About To Hammer The Dollar
    Bear Traps’ Highest Conviction Trade: A Perfect Storm Is About To Hammer The Dollar

    At a time when Wall Street is stuck in a furious debate with itself whether or not the Fed will pivot because inflation this or that, we recently proposed on Sept 1 an alternative theory: the coming Fed pivot will come not because an “inflation target has been hit” (it won’t be for quite a while, especially since US unemployment will need to rise by over 4 million to contain inflation, a political unpalatable outcome), but because the dollar is soaring, and recently hit almost daily all time highs. As such we suggested that the Fed pivot will come not because of inflation but due to “devastation across the ROW.”

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    Over a week later, we were surprised that someone even as patently clueless as Paul “fax machine” Krugman had figured out that the multi-trillion global dollar short squeeze is having catastrophic consequences on the rest of the world, when he wrote that “whatever the reasons, however, it’s clear that the strong dollar is inflicting a lot of pain on economies around the world. Once again, it’s our currency but their problem. Should this influence policy?

    Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist (inventor of the famous Sahm Rule recession indicator), has been a strong critic of the Fed’s hard line on inflation and more recently has been arguing passionately that the Fed has a responsibility to consider the damage its policies are inflicting on the rest of the world. She has a point. Unfortunately, I don’t think the Fed will listen — yet.

    But…

    Federal Reserve officials are still deeply worried about the possibility that high inflation will get entrenched in the U.S. economy, and that concern will dominate everything else until there are clear signs that underlying inflation is coming down. Once the Fed feels that it has some breathing room, however, it should start taking international repercussions into account. The dollar may be other countries’ problem, but even a purely self-interested America needs to live in the world our policies help shape.

    Of course, the growing USD-bearish consensus is hardly news to Zero Hedge readers who knew more than two weeks ago that according to Michael Hartnett, the most accurate Wall Street analyst of 2022 by far, the top trade of 2023 will be to short the dollar, while going long the inverse trade, EMs:

    The Trade of 2023: it’s “short US dollar, long Emerging Markets”… but only after the US recession starts (which will mark peak US$) and China troughs (likely after the coming China currency devaluation).

    All of which brings us to the latest Bear Traps note by Larry McDonald, who not only echoes everything we have previously said about the Fed’s coming funding squeeze (see “The Fed Is Quietly Paying $250 Million To A Handful Of Happy Banks Every Single Day” from July 1) but puts the coming dollars crisis in stark contrast.

    Here is how Larry explains it:

    After the Great Financial Crisis – regulators wanted to make sure the U.S. financial system would never again succumb to the double-edged sword of excess leverage. Regulators forced U.S. banks to “reserve up” and so – for the last 14 years – Wall Street’s financial epicenter stored an ever-enormous dollar number of reserves – mostly found in U.S. Treasuries.

    Today, as promised the Fed must pay these banks MORE and MORE interest on these reserves. As the central bank hikes rates – the unintended consequences are MOUNTING along with a political backlash – potentially louder than a Donald Trump appearance on “The View.”

    This time next year, the Federal Government is looking at a near $400B negative swing;

    • a) from profit to a loss on the Fed’s transfer of net interest income – triggered by a surge in interest payments to banks on reserves,
    • b) plus $200B additional interest on their $31T debt load.

    Dollar headwinds are mounting from; emerging market credit risk, China currency devaluation, the Eurozone energy crisis, a weaker U.S. consumer (see Capital One CDS), and one-year inflation expectations crashing at the fastest pace since the fall of Lehman Brothers.

    Sit back, think of taking the Fed Funds rate from 25bps in March to 325bps this month, that’s three years of accommodation withdrawal in just six months. The price has yet to be paid for this violent right hook. A freshman-year economist can tell you it will take 12-24 months for the full effects to play out.

    Now think of great films. Anyone that ́s ever seen the Hollywood classics in “Top Gun” knows how “Maverick” plays the game. Take extreme chances and push your next move as close to recklessness as possible – make the other-side believe there are no limits to your unpredictable path – when you know in your heart of hearts there are.

    Running, not walking while blind in the dark. This is Powell ́s dangerous dollar–rates game.

    Make NO mistake, the Fed knows what they don’t know. It’s time to get real. No academic on this planet can calculate the 12–24-month forward outcome of 300-450bps of rate hikes and $1T of QT – all delivered in less time than a “Hamilton” intermission on Broadway.

    The whole lot has been tossed on a massively levered global financial system. They have very publicly sold investors on a path littered with incalculable risks with their pawns delivering weekly golf claps along the way.

    After all the drama, genesis knocked on the door early Wednesday morning after breakfast. The truth is starting to come out. “Fed’s Brainard: There’s a risk of raising rates too much” – said Axios.

    Let’s be clear, the S&P 500 is up nearly 4% since Lael started to acknowledge two-sided economic risks of a “global nature…. risks with overtightening.” Gold miners are 8-10% higher since the speech.

    When stocks rally like this into a tape filled with really bad news, there is almost always a central banker behind the move. As much as “Maverick” shows off his dance with darkness, the political will to kill inflation just isn’t there.

    Here we agree 100%: in fact this was our (rare) criticism of Zoltan Pozsar’s August note “War and Interest Rates“, in which the Hungarian predicted that Powell will pull a Volcker and push rates into the stratosphere. We countered that there is no way this will happen, since the tradeoff would be a crushing recession and millions unemployed as even Obama’s chief economist Jason Furman admitted late last week. In fact, with inflation now trending back down, we expect the Fed to pivot very soon, a move which will reverberate across commodities and send prices truly exponentially higher… but not for a few months. Meanwhile, the dollar will be crushed as near record longs scramble to cover. And speaking of the cost of fighting runaway inflation, McDonald writes that…

    In reality, similar to the 1970s, it’s a social price just too high. As the breadth of bearishness rose, in recent weeks we covered half our shorts, and added to longs. JPM notes that after front-end rates have screamed 10x + higher, there are $15T of adjusted excess cash balances outstanding, or 16% of World GDP – highest level on record.

    Bottom line: re-read Hartnett’s “top trade of 2023” reco: it could, and most likely will be, the most profitable trade of the coming year. Not surprisingly, his top trade is identical to what McDonald sees as the best risk-reward looking out 12 months: “Our high conviction – U.S. dollar bear basket is locked and loaded – EWZ Brazil, EEM Emerging Markets, FXI – KWEB China, global value names in EWU and gold miners GDX.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 23:40

  • Fuel Efficiency Tops Safety As Most Important Factor When Buying A Car
    Fuel Efficiency Tops Safety As Most Important Factor When Buying A Car

    Buying a car is for many, one of the biggest purchases they will ever make.

    There are a lot of factors to consider in choosing the right one, but which are prioritized by potential buyers in the United States?

    As Martin Armstrong details below, using data from Statista’s Global Consumer Survey, at the top of the checklist are fuel efficiency and safety (switching places since 2018).

    Infographic: Most Important Factors When Buying a Car | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    With 56 and 55 percent, respectively, these two characteristics easily outpunch a low price, with 46 percent saying this was a top priority when shopping around.

    Even design isn’t as important as the classic TV advert might lead us to believe.

    Only 32 percent seem to be primarily concerned with the appearance of their new car. It’s substance over style for the average car buyer, with 43 percent of respondents saying they prioritize high quality, while driving comfort also ranks more highly than design.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 23:20

  • Armenia Requests Russian Military Assistance As Fighting Breaks Out With Azerbaijan
    Armenia Requests Russian Military Assistance As Fighting Breaks Out With Azerbaijan

    Update (2305ET): The overnight outbreak of fighting in multiple spots along the Armenian-Azerbaijan border is serious enough for Yerevan to have asked for its powerful ally Russia’s help. This has been revealed hours after Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held a late night telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin. The Armenian government has since confirmed it has requested Russian military assistance to repel Azerbaijan aggression and shelling, according to a statement (machine translation):

    “During the meeting, further steps were discussed to counter the aggressive actions of Azerbaijan against the sovereign territory of Armenia that began at midnight. In connection with the aggression against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, it was decided to officially appeal to the Russian Federation in order to implement the provisions of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, as well as to the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the UN Security Council. 

    Armenia is basing the request on the Collective Security Treaty Organization pact it has with Russia, and under which Russia previously sent peacekeeping forces to Nagorno-Karabakh after the Fall 2020 conflict. 

    Independent geopolitical analyst and Russia watcher Clint Ehrlich concludes of the hugely significant request at a time the Ukraine war is raging: “If Russia accepts, we could see a second NATO-Russia proxy war explode.”

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    Of the earlier in the night Putin phone call, the Kremlin said via TASS

    “The Prime Minister gave details about the provocative, aggressive actions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in the direction of the sovereign territory of Armenia, which began at midnight and were accompanied by shelling from artillery and large-caliber firearms. The Prime Minister considered the actions of the Azerbaijani side unacceptable and stressed the importance of an adequate response from the international community.”

    However, it should be noted that during the last major flare-up in fighting between the two longtime rival nations which share a restive border, Moscow was careful to not get too deeply drawn in – only agreeing to help broker a ceasefire and send several hundred Russian peacekeeping forces to oversee the terms of the agreement.

    If Moscow does get pulled in, it might be seen in the West as an opportunity to “weaken” Russian forces on a separate front.

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    Some US Congressional leaders have meanwhile spoken out and stood firmly on the side of Armenia, citing unprovoked Azerbaijan aggression.

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    * * *

    Heavy fighting has broken out between Armenia and Azerbaijan along the border shortly after midnight local time, with the ministry of defenses for both countries citing clashes at several locations. Armenia is saying its territory is coming under attack, and that intensive shelling is currently targeting Goris, Sotk and Jermuk in the east.

    Crucially there are reports of exchanges of fire beyond far beyond the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, but shelling on Armenia proper. “Azerbaijani Armed Forces have launched military offensive against Armenian positions in Armenia proper,” writes one regional correspondent.

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    It appears the fighting has already been sustained for two hours, suggesting this could be the beginning of a broader full-scale war as tensions have simmered going back to the last war for Nagorno-Karabakh in September through November 2020.

    Arman Torosyan, spokesman for Armenia’s Defense Ministry has confirmed that “intense skirmishes are continuing following Azerbaijan’s large-scale provocation along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border.” Both sides are now charging the other with aggression and provocations. 

    The Jerusalem Post is additionally reporting that “large clashes broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan forces along the border between the two countries on Monday night, according to Azerbaijani and Armenian Defense Ministries.”

    “Azerbaijani artillery and UAVs reportedly targeted sites in Vardenis, Goris, Sotk and Jermuk in eastern Armenia.”

    Below is the full Azerbaijan defense ministry statement:

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    Contesting these Azerbaijan accusations of a “sabotage” operation which were alleged to have kicked off the fresh hostilities, Armenia’s military countered with the following official statement:

    On September 13, at 00:05, units of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces began to fire intensively at the Armenian positions from artillery and large-caliber firearms in the direction of Goris, Sotk and Jermuk. The Azerbaijani Armed Forces also use UAVs.

    Complicating matters, there are still several hundred Russian peacekeeping troops in the restive Nagorno-Karabakh border region, as part of the settlement from the last round of fighting centered there.

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    This peacekeeping mission is now in doubt, and Russia’s major base in Armenia territory is said to be on “high alert”. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 23:05

  • Life For Border Ranchers: Assaulted, Dogs Beaten, Fences Destroyed, Dead Bodies
    Life For Border Ranchers: Assaulted, Dogs Beaten, Fences Destroyed, Dead Bodies

    Authored by Charlotte Cuthbertson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Ranchers along the south Texas border are having their livelihoods crushed by the volume of illegal aliens trampling through their properties, assaulting and threatening them, beating their dogs, cutting fences, destroying water lines, and breaking into their homes.

    Trail camera photos of illegal aliens provided by ranchers in Kinney County, Texas in 2021. (Courtesy of ranchers)

    Some have moved their families off the property for safety and ranch managers are quitting their jobs.

    One rancher has found 17 dead bodies on his property this year, and on three occasions he had his young children with him.

    How am I supposed to explain to a young child what a dead body is doing there, rotting, just laying there?” rancher and wildlife biologist Ben Binnion said in front of the Texas Senate Committee on Border Security in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Aug. 10.

    “My kids shouldn’t have to see that, especially on private property.”

    Binnion manages about 150,000 acres of ranchland, which is mainly used for recreation hunting, 10 miles off the U.S.–Mexico border.

    South Texas border region highlighting Maverick and Kinney counties, which share an international boundary with Mexico. (The Epoch Times)

    Nine years ago, when he first moved to the Maverick County ranch, he said Border Patrol apprehended 37 illegal aliens on his property during the year. Right now, he sees an average of 200 illegal aliens per night on the cameras he’s personally set up.

    They’re absolutely trashing our fences,” Binnion said. “​​I had to hire a full time employee who spends 40 hours a week fixing fences and picking up trash. And that’s literally all he does.

    He said he’s added security cameras and installed hurricane shutters on the ranch houses to prevent break-ins.

    “The houses that are not secure, we have to leave unlocked because they break the windows to get in. Those houses are broken into at least once a week,” he said.

    “I’ve actually moved my wife and kids off the ranch due to safety reasons. I don’t want to put them in that danger.”

    Binnion said the financial loss is tough to estimate, but he’s looking at about $300,000 so far this year from patching the damage being done.

    “And that is simply putting a bandaid on a bullet hole. That has nothing to do with replacing anything. If we were to replace everything it’d be $800,000 plus,” he said.

    “We’re actually looking at hiring additional security for hunting season so our guests feel safer.”

    Maverick County shares 88 miles of international border with Mexico, which is divided by the winding Rio Grande. It has one of the highest rates of “gotaways”—up to 10,000 per month—of all 31 counties that border Mexico. Gotaways are recorded by Border Patrol as having been detected, but not apprehended.

    The illegal alien gotaways traversing this region are trying to evade law enforcement because they are either criminals, previously deported, or they know they won’t gain legal entry.

    Such was the case with a Colombian man being smuggled in a vehicle headed to San Antonio after he entered through Maverick County. The man, along with five other illegal aliens were stopped in Kinney County and apprehended. Once Border Patrol took the six into custody, agents discovered the Colombian is wanted for child sex offenses in the United States.

    Ranchers from south Texas testify during a Texas Senate field hearing on border security in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Aug. 10, 2022. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

    ‘Completely Insane’

    The border ranchers rarely call Border Patrol for help anymore. Agents are usually too tied up processing large groups of illegal aliens to respond. The ranchers’ main lifeline now are Texas state troopers, who Gov. Greg Abbott has deployed to border areas to provide some relief from the unending streams of traffic surging across the border.

    Christopher Roswell’s family has owned property in Maverick County for several generations and he’s lived there for 26 years.

    “What I’ve witnessed over the last two years has been completely insane. Safety has become a major concern. My wife, my kids, our employees, and myself carry a pistol everywhere we go on the ranch,” he said during the hearing at Eagle Pass.

    We have been cussed at, threatened, had rocks and sticks thrown at us. Our dogs have been beaten on multiple occasions by illegals. In the past, we have not had these issues.”

    Roswell recently moved his family off the ranch due to safety fears.

    As with many ranchers in this area of south Texas, Roswell’s main income is recreational hunting. Exotic or native game is a prized catch for some hunters and they’ll pay tens of thousands of dollars to get a shot at a home-grown trophy.

    That means ranchers rely on their high game fences to keep stock on their ranch and particularly off any highways, where they’d be liable if an animal escaped and caused injury.

    Roswell said his fence by the main highway has been “completely ruined” from being cut and driven through countless times.

    “Every hunting camp I have has been vandalized. Our headquarters have been broken into. Over half of our highway gates have been run through. We’ve had three electric gates destroyed. Most of my hunting blinds have been vandalized, windows and doors broken, one set on fire, several used as bathrooms,” Roswell said. All of the illegal aliens carry knives and travel in groups.

    For the first time, I’ve received phone calls asking if it’s safe to come hunt. We’ve had countless hunts ruined by illegals. Our hunters have been threatened by illegals. My livelihood is being threatened.

    “It’s not just the damages that we have to deal with, it’s also the abuses of the human trafficking. In the last year, we have found six dead illegals that I’m aware of. I have helped women and men who have been beaten, raped, and abandoned by their groups.

    “This past winter, we found a little girl, she was 8 years old. She had been lost for three days all by herself because her group left her.”

    Roswell urges people to think about the same thing happening to their own property and their own backyards and gardens.

    “And then imagine your kids or your grandkids playing in those yards. Because that’s what we’re living through every single week,” he said.

    We’ve had our ranch truck stolen. The amount of trash on the property is completely disgusting. We have tons and tons of backpacks and bottles and trash bags. Probably about 200,000 gallons of fresh water has just been wasted and poured out onto the ground.

    “All of these damages in two years time have added up to a little over $200,000. And that’s without us building any new fence. Why should I incur this cost?”

    Law enforcement and EMS respond to a vehicle smuggling crash in Kinney County, Texas, on June 29, 2022. (Kinney County Sheriff’s Office)

    Organics on Hold

    Ruben Garibay bought some land and moved to Maverick County to start an organic farming operation. In 2019 he started clearing and preparing the land for his crops.

    But at the beginning of 2021, when he was ready to get things underway, the border crisis hit and he couldn’t plant anything.

    “We have yet to be able to start it because of all the trampling already in the fields. As some of you may know, in organic farming, any kind of contamination deems the crop completely useless and you’ve got to destroy it within a 10-foot radius of any footprint, animal, anything that comes in,” he said.

    “So although we have high fences—not to keep exotic game in, but to keep any kind of traffic or animals out—they’re still jumping them.”

    Garibay said he tried to place ladders for illegal aliens to climb his fences without ruining them, or to direct them to walk along the equipment pathways, but to no avail.

    He has no choice but to wait and hope things will change.

    “It’s pretty discouraging,” he said.

    ‘Fear Factor’

    Wayne King spends four and a half hours every day checking fences on the exotic game ranch he manages in Kinney County. Prior to January 2021, he said he checked the fences once a week or maybe once every two weeks.

    “Since then I have fixed 252 holes in my fence. I fixed water troughs, I fixed water lines. They come through our place like it’s a highway. I have been woke up at night at 11 p.m., 12 a.m., 1 o’clock in the morning with them banging all over my doors, my windows. I’ve had to use my pistol to run them off,” he said.

    It’s become a dangerous, dangerous thing to live every night of your life wondering. I sleep with pistols under my pillow, pistols in every room. Pistols on my nightstand. It’s just crazy.

    King is located 25 miles from the nearest town: “911 doesn’t help me a bit.”

    He said illegal aliens have cut his fences wide enough to drive vehicles through. His gates have been destroyed and left open. He estimates he’s lost in revenue between $150,000 and $200,000 worth of exotic game.

    “It’s just getting to the point where if it was not for … our highway patrol agency, we might as well give up. We’re done,” he said.

    “To live every day of your life in fear. Not accounting the work that’s lost or the work we have to do, it’s the fear factor of being in the pasture.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 23:00

  • Xi Poised To Build Support For "Taiwan Reunification" With 4 Top Military Picks
    Xi Poised To Build Support For “Taiwan Reunification” With 4 Top Military Picks

    If you thought the global economic chaos resulting from one hot war was more than enough, well… we have some bad news: a second one is on its way as the specter of a China-Taiwan war grows by the day.

    According to Japan’s Nikkei, Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to stack the country’s senior military leadership during next month’s Communist Party congress with loyalists aligned on his goal of unifying Taiwan and the mainland.

    Xi – who is expected to accept an unprecedented third term at next month’s twice-a-decade Party Congress – serves concurrently as general secretary of the Communist Party and chair of the Central Military Commission, the top decision-making body for the armed forces. Four of the commission’s seven members are due to retire at the twice-a-decade congress in mid-October.

    According to Nikkei, much attention is focused on how Xi, who is all but guaranteed to receive a precedent-breaking third term as China’s top leader at the event, will fill the vacancies on the military commission given his belligerent stance toward the U.S. and Taiwan.

    Miao Hua, one of the commission’s members, is seen as the top candidate to replace Xu Qiliang, one of the two vice chairman. Miao has known Xi for three decades, since the latter served in Fujian Province.

    Xi in 2015 began restructuring China’s ground-forces-centric military into a modern and mobile organization in which all branches fight as one. In an effort to break through the silos among the armed branches, Miao, an army man, had been appointed to a senior post within the navy.

    A contender for promotion onto the commission is Li Qiaoming, former head of the People’s Liberation Army’s Northern Theater Command. Li apparently caught Xi’s eye by writing an article that struck a chord with the leader, who sought to tighten the party’s grip on the armed forces. Though the PLA serves as China’s military, it is part of the Communist Party.

    “The Soviet Union collapsed because the party didn’t have its own army,” Li had argued in the article.

    Longtime Xi protege Liu Zhenli commands the PLA ground forces. Liu’s resume includes a lengthy stint overseeing a unit that safeguarded Beijing, a contingent formed by the best-trained fighters in the army. He ranks among the top 200 Communist Party officials, as does Li. That puts Liu in the running for a vice chairman post on the military commission.

    Among other things, Xi is expected to reiterate his vision for Taiwanese unification during the congress. But since many officials in the military are currently reluctant to achieve that goal through force, promoting Miao, Li and Liu could smooth the way for the president to make such decisions regarding Taiwan.

    Speculation also suggests that Xi will promote Zhang Shengmin, a Central Military Commission member who led anti-corruption dragnets in the PLA, to vice chairman. This would put other senior military officers on notice.

    Military leaders with experience in the region including Taiwan have drawn attention as potential commission members. He Weidong commands the PLA’s Eastern Theater, which oversees operations involving Taiwan and Japan’s Nansei archipelago. He is believed to have taken part in the large-scale military exercise near Taiwan in early August.

    Another likely candidate is Xu Qiling, who once commanded PLA ground forces in the Eastern Theater. Chang Dingqiu, commander of the air force and the youngest active full general, is seen to be in contention as well.

    Newly elected vice chairman of the Central Military Commission Xu Qiliang, bottom, and other commission members take an oath to the constitution at the sixth plenary session of the National People’s Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 18, 2018

    In the last party congress in 2017, Xi reduced the seats on the Central Military Commission to seven from 11. In 2022, many of these seats will now be filled with Xi’s preferred puppets, greenlighting any military overtures the Chinese ruler orders.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 22:40

  • Xi's Meeting With Putin Seen As Major Market Risk
    Xi’s Meeting With Putin Seen As Major Market Risk

    By Ye Xie, Bloomberg markets live reporter and commentator

    President Xi Jinping’s planned visit to Central Asia this week will mark his first trip aboard since the pandemic hit more than two years ago. In normal times, it wouldn’t register strongly on a trader’s radar.

    But these aren’t normal times, and it comes at a rather delicate moment for China, domestically and internationally. Some analysts are fearful that Xi’s trip, which reportedly includes a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, may pose a major risk for the Chinese market.

    Xi’s trip to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan was announced just as Beijing doubled down on its Covid restriction before the Party Congress next month. The policy is weighing on the economy and the rhythms of daily life, with the state media reporting that the number of China’s passenger trips expected during the holiday may fall 38% from a year earlier. Is it just a coincidence — or is the party leader’s traveling schedule a signal that normalcy is returning to China, albeit slowly?

    Source: Weibo

    More importantly, the trip comes barely a month ahead of the twice-a-decade Party Congress, where Xi is expected to accept an unprecedented third term. Analysts at Clocktower Group, an alternative asset management platform, noted that it’s “extremely rare” for the party leader to travel abroad ahead of the Party Congress. President Xi, for example, stopped making overseas trips three months ahead of the 19th Party Congress in 2017. “President Xi was not expected to leave the country unless it was extremely urgent for him to do so,” the analysts wrote.

    What’s the urgency? Uzbekistan is hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which will give Xi a chance to meet Putin in person for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. It comes at a time when Russia is suffering major setbacks as Ukraine mounts counter attacks to take back lost territory. Clocktower’s analysts wrote:

    If the Western high-tech sanctions are pushing Russian industries and military to the brink of collapse, China may be the only white knight that is capable of providing a rescue. As such, an “SOS” from the Kremlin is likely the reason behind the reported Xi-Putin meeting in the coming week.

    The meeting will pose a significant risk for Chinese markets. If China decides to help Russia beyond merely buying its commodities, there is considerable risk that the US and Europe will implement secondary sanctions on China. There may also be pressure on Chinese assets from a general investor aversion – likely strengthened by a social media “cancel” campaign against Beijing – to hold them once Beijing recalibrates policy to more concretely support Moscow.

    It might be too speculative to guess what might come out it. But keep in mind that at the onset of Russia’s invasion, foreign investors dumped Chinese stocks and bonds because they were worried that China may be embroiled in the second-round sanctions because of Beijing’s ties with Moscow.

    So don’t be surprised if what would look like a lackluster trip by Xi winds up moving the market.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 22:40

  • New Zealand Scraps Nearly All COVID-19 Restrictions, Including Mask And Vaccination Mandates
    New Zealand Scraps Nearly All COVID-19 Restrictions, Including Mask And Vaccination Mandates

    Authored by Rebecca Zhu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    New Zealand will be retiring its COVID-19 traffic light system and significantly scaling down COVID restrictions from Sept. 13 so Kiwis could “move forward with certainty,” Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced.

    It’s time to safely turn the page on our COVID-19 management and live without the extraordinary measures we have previously used,” Ardern said, calling it a “milestone.”

    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern speaks to media at a press conference ahead of a nationwide lockdown at Parliament in Wellington, New Zealand, on March 25, 2020. (Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

    With the abolition of the traffic light COVID protection framework, mask mandates will be lifted in all areas except in healthcare and aged care settings.

    Household contacts will no longer need to isolate, while people tested positive to COVID-19 will continue to be required to isolate for seven days.

    All government vaccine mandates will end on Sept. 26, and all vaccination requirements for incoming travellers and aircrew will also be removed.

    After restrictions are lifted, it will be up to the employer’s discretion whether they will require workers to wear masks or get vaccinated for COVID-19.

    In short, we now move on to a simple two requirements system of masks in healthcare settings and seven days isolation for positive cases only,” Ardern said.

    The COVID-19 protection framework, or traffic light system, set out the rules for different traffic light settings, where red was the highest alert setting, and green meant no restrictions. At the time of removal, New Zealand was at orange.

    The government also confirmed that COVID leave payments will continue.

    COVID-19 Minister Ayesha Verrall also announced the purchase of an additional 40,000 anti-viral medicine courses, expected to arrive in New Zealand within days.

    “So now, anyone over the age of 65, and Maori and Pacific people over the age of 50, or anyone who meets Pharmac requirements, can access the treatment in the early stages of contracting the virus.

    This means more than double the number of New Zealanders will be able to access these medicines if they need them than previously,” Verrall said.

    Decision Welcomed Across the Board

    Retail NZ welcomed the move to return New Zealand to a “sense of normality.”

    “After over two years of being at the forefront of COVID-19 rules, alert level changes, low foot traffic, and nonsensical mask rules, retailers across New Zealand will be pleased with today’s revised approach,” Retail NZ Chief Executive Greg Harford said.

    “The revision today largely brings New Zealand in line with most of the rest of the world.”

    But Harford encouraged the government to further revise the isolation period down to between three to five days.

    ACT party agreed with the idea, with ACT Leader David Seymour noting that New Zealand had among the strictest isolation rules in the world.

    Keeping people locked in their houses longer than is necessary imposes real costs to them and the economy without improving our COVID-19 response,” he said.

    “New Zealand is holding on to a long COVID hangover. It turns out an ‘abundance of caution’ is an abundance of cost for New Zealanders.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 22:20

  • Don't Blink, You'll Miss The Merge
    Don’t Blink, You’ll Miss The Merge

    As One River Asset Management’s Sebastian Bea writes, the Ethereum Merge set for this Wednesday, is like upgrading a rocket ship after its launch: “It is an epic engineering feat.” However, for those expecting the fully-priced in event to lead to even more price upside, you will likely be disappointed – as Bea writes, “the value of the Merge to Ethereum will be in attracting a deeper network over time. That will take patience – the Merge is not an immediate catalyst.”

    To explain the real significance of the Merge, below are the latest thoughts and market notes, from One River’s head of research Marcel Kasumovich, who writes the following note, which we have republished below:

    “5.8×10^22 – Don’t Blink, You’ll Miss the Merge.”

    1/ Escape velocity. A simple, tidy equation quantifying what is needed to escape gravity. It’s far less tidy in the behavioral sciences that govern digital ecosystems. “Functional” escape velocity is a moving target, achieved when everything else can be done on top of a base layer without changing it materially. Becoming the dominant base layer is the target in the digital space-race. The Merge gets Ethereum closer to that target, hence the excitement around it.

    2/ The Ethereum protocol aims to dominate the digital space-race with the long-awaited Merge of the Mainnet and the Beacon chains (Figure 1). There are excellent resources explaining the Merge from technical to philosophical. Can the Merge fail? What if there is a hard fork? How long will smart contracts be locked? These are all questions extremely well covered. The Merge was planned so its flaws would be visible over a lengthy trial phase – 20 “shadow forks” on private testing networks were deployed along the way. Our focus is on investment dynamics.

    Figure 1: Approaching the Merge (via image here)

    ​​​​Source: Mainnet Merge Announcement

    3/ Ethereum has already met the objectives of a successful layer 1, validating transactions without reliance on a third-party network. The migration to proof-of-stake is more of a philosophical shift than a required engineering one. In the past two years, the protocol has averaged 1.2 million blockchain transactions a day, securely and without downtime. The Merge doesn’t change Ethereum’s objectives, only the means. Transactions will now be validated by way of algorithmic selection of validators rather than computing competition. This is a material shift in narrative, steering clear of politically charged issues around energy consumption.

    4/ The question we are most asked is whether the Merge is in the price. Of course, it is. Even the most casual observer is familiar with the Merge and the spike in option open interest shows speculators are alert (Figure 2). It is an engineering upgrade, not a corporate merger evaluated on cash flows. The benefits of the Merge are only relevant with greater adoption and a deeper network. The Merge is an engineering feat that is sending out invitations, not directly initiating new participation in Ethereum.

    Figure 2: Ether Options Open Interest, USD Billions (view image here)

    Source: Screw.com

    5/ So how should we think about the Merge and its value to ether? It is all about attracting users to the Ethereum base layer. It will be most successful when changes to the base layer are rare. How the Ethereum Network is valued will also undergo a material change. To use Ethereum you need to hold ether; holding and staking ether turns it into a bond-like asset. Ethereum’s growing network will treat ether as the reserve asset to the ecosystem and staking that asset to support the validation of transactions will give it bond-like features of a reserve asset.

    6/ The network effect is in motion. The goal of any layer 1 is to be so foundational that anyone can build upon it with little reason to change it, like a Constitution. That building is happening, even in the crypto winter. Take Polygon, the most widely used Ethereum scaling solution (1.1% of our Core Index and 5.3% of Size Tilt). There are currently more than 37,000 applications running on the Polygon Network, an explosion from 200 in June 2021. These are leading to “real” products. Polygon is integrating Web 3.0 functionality into existing smartphones with the Nothing Phone (1) being the first. The coming wave of layer 2s will widen the set of opportunities.

    7/ The growing network will lead investors to see ether for its bond-like characteristics. There are two components of the ether-bond. The first is the coupon paid for staking ether. Payments are made to validators for their staking services, which takes little more than powering on your computer, connecting to internet, and running the latest software. The odds of being called upon to validate a transaction are inversely proportional to the number of validators. More validators means that a larger number of investors share in the rewards, lowering the coupon and vice versa (Figure 3).

    Figure 3: Ethereum Perpetual Bond Coupon (view image here)

    Source: Staking Rewards. Current ETH Staked 13.6mn or 10.6% of total supply, median of top five staking assets 99.2%

    8/ The second bond-like component is fees. You can think of this like a GDP warrant in traditional finance where the coupon is positively linked to activity in the economy. Fees on the Ethereum protocol – including tips paid to prioritize single or bundled transactions – will be earned by validators after the Merge. Stronger activity in the Ethereum economy leads to higher fees and more economics for staking. During last year’s boom, gross fees were more than 15% annualized share of the Ethereum market capitalization (Figure 4). With this year’s downturn, fees have collapsed by 96% and a ratio of less than 1% annualized.

    Figure 4: Fees Pro-Cyclical Yield Akin to GDP Warrant (view image here)

    Source: Coin metrics. One River Digital Calculations.

    9/ The two sources of yield work in opposite directions over the cycle – a very attractive feature for investors. In a boom scenario, a rise in staking demand leads to lower ether coupons, and more income is earned from fees. In a bust scenario, a decline in staking demand raises the ether coupons, and fee income declines. We anticipate this centering the yield around 6-8% over the next year – not bad for an invisible reserve asset in the future of finance. Ether’s role in the financial ecosystem will compete with bond assets that are held for their surety of collateral – a valuation that is many multiples its current state.

    10/ It’s the final countdown to the total terminal difficulty rate of 58750000000000000000000, expected around September 15. It’ll be boring if all goes according to plan, nothing like the excitement of watching the force of a rocket launch. Alas, the dream of every successful layer 1 is precisely that – to be a boring, secure platform that is eventually taken for granted, invisible to the users who demand more from their tools. The Merge is one step closer to that reality.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 22:00

  • Previewing The "Pivotal" August CPI Report: Expect A Miss… A 7-Handle Likely Sees A Very Strong Rally
    Previewing The “Pivotal” August CPI Report: Expect A Miss… A 7-Handle Likely Sees A Very Strong Rally

    Ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print, Wall Street is split between those who say tomorrow’s inflation data is fully priced in and won’t have an impact on either stocks or the Fed which won’t ease until the breadth of price increases comes closer to the Fed’s 2% goal, and those who – echoing recent comments from the Fed – believe that the CPI is all that matters for the Fed’s upcoming rate decision, even though odds of a 75bps rate hike in two weeks time are just over 90%.

    Among the former is Goldman trader Matt Fleury who quotes Bullard’s comments from last week, namely that a good CPI report shouldn’t affect the Sept Fed call, and notes that “he is exactly right… We are priced for 75bps already. CPI doesn’t matter. People who don’t have enough length will tell you it does, but it doesn’t. Its priced. The asymmetry is higher here” and is why this traditionally bearish Goldman trader predicted that “we might be starting the Q4 chase early.”

    But while there may be disagreement over how the market or Fed will react to the CPI, there appears to be agreement that the August inflation print will miss to the downside (by a little or a lot), if mostly at the headline level thanks to plunging commodity prices (core inflation may actually shit higher as Americans shift spending on items such as food and gas into “core” inflation). There is also agreement that whatever the BLS deems the proper CPI number, “it is unlikely that it will reflect what we see and feel every day” as Peter Tchir put it, adding that it also “doesn’t tell us anything about where September will be (actually, that is not true, as some of the data will be so off, that it will have to get fixed in next month’s report, and some is just stale by its nature (housing).”

    Some more hard truths from Tchir on CPI’s 15 minutes of fame:

    The reality is that CPI, away from quirks in how it is calculated (the all-important housing component might be the quirkiest off the quirky, but heuristic adjustments, how prices are measured, etc.) all impact the number that we will be given, but don’t really impact the inflation we have. And again, it doesn’t tell us much about the future of inflation.

    As we sent out on Friday, the market has concluded that both the ECB and even the Fed, despite their protestations otherwise, are both being viewed as data dependent.

    Most importantly, the Academy strategist “cannot see any scenario, where the market doesn’t decide that CPI is heading the right direction and that October will be lower than September and so on and so forth (so many commodity futures contracts that I checked out are all lower forward than spot).”

    Indeed, one look at not just today’s unexpectedly low NY Fed consumer survey inflation expectations for both the 1 and 3Y horizon…

    …. but also 3Y breakevens which have dropped to a nearly two year low….

    … as well as two-year inflation swaps…

    … now suggesting CPI will average less than 3% in the near term (excluding energy the market expects prices may still grow near 4%.)

    There is another reason why it is clear that the market is now convinced that peak inflation is behind us and tomorrow’s CPI print will likely miss: stocks and bonds have gained in tandem as economists expect the first negative monthly reading in more than two years, even though as noted above but core inflation is still expected to post an increase in August while the y/y index of underlying prices is set to tick up back above 6% from 5.9% previously. Core inflation is then expected to stay around that level through early 2023 as rents will keep the core rate high (remember what we wrote in August 2021, when conventional wisdom was still that inflation would be transitory: “What Rental Hyperinflation Looks Like: “Soaring Prices. Competition. Desperation“”).

    Another measure to watch, according to Bloomberg’s Tatiana Darie is the share of the CPI basket that is rising more than 4% on an annualized basis: July saw a drop to 71.8% from June’s high of 74.8% as three-quarters of prices are rising faster than their 5-year average. The direction and speed of these gauges will also tell us a lot about the inflation outlook.

    After that long preamble, here’s what Wall Street expects tomorrow for the August CPI:

    • CPI M/M Exp. -0.1%, last flat
    • Core CPI M/M Exp. +0.3%, last +0.3%
    • CPI Y/Y Exp. +8.1%, last +8.5%
    • Core CPI Y/Y Exp. +6.1%, last +5.9%

    there are 39 estimates on Bloomberg (compared to 72 estimates for this month’s NFP data). The range is incredibly narrow (7.9% to 8.3% for YOY).

    Here are some of the more indicative examples:

    • BMO 8.3%
    • HSBC 8.2%
    • BofA 8.2%
    • ING 8.2%
    • JPMorgan 8.1%
    • Soc Gen 8.1%
    • Citi 8%
    • Goldman 8%
    • TD 8%
    • BNP 8%
    • Jefferies 8%
    • Standard Chartered 8%
    • Stifel 8%
    • Nomura 8%
    • Wells Fargo 7.9%
    • Credit Suisse 7.9%
    • Morgan Stanley 7.9%

    Some details from the bigger banks, starting with Goldman (full note available to pro subs, along with a bunch of other pre-CPI reports):

    “We estimate a 0.32% increase in August core CPI (mom sa), which would boost the year-on-year rate by two tenths to 6.1%. Our forecast reflects a further drop in airfares on the back of lower oil prices (we assume -5% mom sa) as well as net softness in autos categories (new +0.75%, used -1.25%, parts flat) due to easing supply chain constraints and the arrival of 2023 model years on dealer lots. However, we expect continued strength in services inflation due to wage pressures, labor shortages, and elevated short-term inflation expectations. Specifically, we look for a strong set of shelter readings (rent +0.65% and OER 0.55%) and a 0.6% rise in education prices due to higher tuition and daycare costs for the new school year. We also expect another gain in car insurance, as carriers push through price increases to offset higher repair and replacement costs. We estimate a 0.13% monthly decline in headline CPI, reflecting lower gasoline prices but higher food prices.”

    “Food inflation increased to 7.6% yoy (Exhibit 2) in August (from 6.7% yoy in July), contributing almost 40bp to the overall increase in headline inflation. Further, sequentially food prices increased by 0.5% mom s.a. (vs. -0.5% mom s.a. in July) mainly driven by higher cereal prices”

    Away from GS research, here a good take from Goldman flow trader John Flood and market reactions (full note also available to pro subs):

    All eyes on CPI tomorrow @ 8:30am. Interesting dynamic in sense Fed essentially preannounced 75bps @ 9/21 meeting when THIS Nick Timiraos (fed’s mouthpiece) article dropped last week. Market clearly wants/expects a cooler headline print w/ recent sharp decline in gas prices. Street is braced for core print to remain stickier (and even tick slightly higher). Headline number most likely shows some disinflation and wont impact mkt meaningfully after tape’s recent run higher (unless shockingly cool…call it sub 7%…then keep your rally caps on). If we get a surprise hotter reading of >8.5% (prior) mkt likely gets hit by at 100+bps.

    Here’s JPMorgan forecasting that “in-line print that indicates a second consecutive MoM decline would be supportive for equities” while “a 7-handle CPI YoY (exp. is 8.1% so certainly not unthinkable) we would likely to see a strong rally tomorrow:

    Andrew Tyler: We have seen new shorts added with some sub-sectors back to YTD highs in terms of  short interest. If this market continues to move higher does a squeeze take us back to 4300 level into earnings season? If so, it will start with CPI on Tuesday (Headline YoY +8.1% exp.; +8.5% prior. Headline MoM -0.1% exp.; 0.0% prior) where an inline print supports a move higher. Should Headline CPI YoY print with a 7-handle, then think we see a very strong day for stocks. Given light positioning and low liquidity, we could see another sharp rally coming out of CPI.

    Mike Feroli:, “We estimate that the consumer price index (CPI) was basically unchanged in August. With this soft headline print, we think the year-ago inflation rate will moderate from 8.5% in July to 8.1% in August. We expect the monthly changes in the main details of the report to be pretty similar between July and August, with a drop in energy prices being offset by gains in food and core prices. We forecast that the energy CPI fell 5.6% in August while the food CPI rose 0.9% and the core index increased 0.33%. If our forecast is correct, the year-ago rate for the core CPI should pick up from 5.9% in July to 6.1%.”

    Ultimately, while a miss tomorrow will likely unleash market animal spirits, in the grand scheme of things it will not really change the big picture: even assuming sequential inflation growth slows to a trickle, the chart below from BofA shows how long it will take for inflation to normalize on an annual basis.

    Bottom line: an line print will be supportive; a big miss – especially if it is a 7-handle Y/Y stocks will fly, while a big beat will – predictably – hammer stocks. As for the Fed, barring a major surprise, tomorrow’s report isn’t expected to alter the Fed’s outlook until the breadth of price increases slows further and comes closer to the Fed’s 2% goal. And the St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard told us that 75 bps this month is still on the table despite a “good” CPI report.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 21:40

  • Israeli Prime Minister Announces In Berlin: Iran Nuclear Talks "Dead"
    Israeli Prime Minister Announces In Berlin: Iran Nuclear Talks “Dead”

    In yet more confirmation that the long-running attempt to reach a restored JCPOA Iran nuclear deal has failed, a senior Israeli official representing Prime Minister Yair Lapid on Monday declared that Iran talks are “dead”

    This comes as the Israeli government has been touting its “successful” lobbying of the US administration to not go through with a ‘bad deal’

    A senior Israeli official called on Europe and the US on Monday to begin talking about demands for a “longer, stronger” nuclear agreement with Iran, saying current talks aimed at reviving a 2015 pact were dead after Jerusalem provided proof that Tehran had not been forthright during negotiations.

    Prime Minister Yair Lapidand German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Getty Images.

    Lapid and his top aides were in Berlin Monday, where the Israeli Prime Minister says he passed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz “sensitive and relevant intelligence information” on Iran’s nuclear program

    The day prior, Germany, France, and the UK issued a joint statement calling out Iran’s sincerity and motives in seeking a restored nuclear agreement, citing “serious doubts” the Western signatories to the original JCPOA have. 

    A senior Israeli official traveling with Lapid told reporters: “We gave information to the Europeans that proved that the Iranians are lying while talks are still happening.” 

    “There’s not going to be a JCPOA, say the Americans and most Europeans. They say, ‘We have a lot of reservations about the possibility of a nuclear agreement,'” the official added, as quoted in The Times of Israel. “There are no talks right now with Iran. There is no one in Vienna.”

    Despite only weeks ago some officials were hailing that the Vienna process had reached the “finish line” – and that a final text was under scrutiny after the EU delivered it to Washington and Tehran, there’s been increasing acknowledgement that it’s permanently stalled, if not collapsed altogether.

    Israel has all along charged that the Islamic Republic simply wanted to use a restored deal as cover to continue to secretly pursue nuclear weapons – something Tehran has consistently denied. Lapid meanwhile, has claimed he has “up-to-date intelligence information on Iranian activity at the nuclear sites” which contradicts what Iranian officials say in public.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 21:20

  • Taiwan Anticipated Many Of The Lessons From The War In Ukraine
    Taiwan Anticipated Many Of The Lessons From The War In Ukraine

    Authored by Julian Spencer-Churchill & Liu Zongzo via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Recent Taiwanese military exercises indicate that Taipei has anticipated many of the most important lessons of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, and has also been addressing issues more specific to its precarious security situation. U.S. Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley advised the ROC to assimilate promptly the insights from the Ukraine War. These lessons include the importance of strategic political intelligence to avert a surprise attack, surveillance by Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV), and their principal counter-measures including electronic warfare and local air defense; the persisting importance of combined arms warfare, the use of precision artillery, and the exploitation of built-up terrain with light troops equipped with anti-tank systems; logistics; and the economic, social and political preparation for a long war.

    https://unsplash.com/photos/rQPbNJSNueg archive copy Image Dorigo Wu dorigo

    In recent months, Taiwan has become concerned about the threat value of the people’s Republic of China’s (PRC) People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF)’s top to bottom modernization that has given Beijing the ability to conduct limited anti-access and air denial (A2/AD) operations in the South China Sea, and with the potential to create a regional blockade around the island. Recent exercises around Taiwan show that the PLA is forging ahead with an emphasis on network-centric warfare and information operations to coordinate the PLA units of its different elements, in particular between its naval platforms and aircraft.

    Taiwan’s current defense framework, introduced by former Republic of China (ROC) Deputy Minister of National Defense, Admiral Lee Hsi-ming between 2016 to 2020, emphasizes force preservation, coastal victory, and beach landing denial. This entails a rapid movement and concentration of land units while under interdiction, and surviving air and sea units, to contain and then counter-attack against a specific beach landing. This is in contradistinction from a more stable and proven practice of relying on a defense-in-depth to wear down an attack as it builds-up and pushes inland. However, Taiwan is counting on a joint land-sea-air attack to deliver a shock to Chinese amphibious, airborne and heliborne forces, before they are able to consolidate. Taiwan validates its operational doctrines through its annual Han Kuang Exercises.

    During the 2018’s Han Kuang 34, commercial drones were used for the first time by Taiwan, in addition to public SMS notifications on aerial threat warnings. In 2019, the emphasis was placed on the use of highway strips as emergency runways as a counter to China’s concentrated targeting of Taiwanese airbases with land-based missiles. That year, Taiwan also explored concepts of asymmetric warfare, combined arms combat aimed at coastal denial, and civilian cooperation in communications, civil defense, and evacuation drills.

    In 2020, while retaining the core strategy of force preservation, in order to resist Chinese tactics intended to inflict attrition and pin down Taiwanese land forces, Han Kuang 36 examined the use of joint air defense battalions to protect high-value infrastructure. Taiwan has a missile defense density higher than that of South Korea or Japan, and second to only Israel, although the survivability of these systems are difficult to ascertain. The exercise also notably incorporated Taiwan’s cross-strait long-range precision strike capabilities, using the Hsiung Feng II and the supersonic Hsiung Feng III, anti-ship missiles, in joint operations between the navy and air force.

    The first post-pandemic exercise, Han Kuang 38, was held on July 25, 2022, with the location of the exercises chosen to simulate multiple a response scenario against a principal and diversionary amphibious landing, with a joint focus on adapting to C2 (command and control) disruption inflicted by Chinese jamming and strikes. The settings ranged from the northeastern area – Taipei’s Songshan Airport, Hsinchu, to the northern cities Taichung and Chiayi, to the southern area around Tainan, Pingtung, and the eastern coastal cities Hualien, and Taitung. These included a focus on artillery units’ readiness by training with live D-485 HE rounds to simulate landing beach denial against PLA’s amphibious operations.

    The 2022 Han Kuang 38 exercise responded to a need to prepare given the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) increased use of realistic combat-oriented exercises, modernization, heightened recruitment, and improved restructuration. Counter A2/AD air defense simulations were conducted around Taipei to maintain its defense capabilities against a first-wave missile strikes from the Chinese mainland and People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ships and submarines. Live fire, marines amphibious maneuvers, urban warfare preparations, special forces and airborne coordination, were also conducted to simulate a near-real invasion scenario. Taiwan has taken preparation for real war seriously, as evinced by its emphasis on cross-element (land, sea, air) training, inter-unit synergy and coordination, which is in effect combined arms warfare on the strategic level.

    Besides seeking to improve the readiness of its military defense posture through the step-level intensification of the Han Kuang exercises, Taiwan is also intending to send a strategic deterrent message to Xi Jinping’s cell of policy decision-makers. This is especially important given that Taiwan’s investment in its defense may not be enough to deter a decision by Chinese Communist Party Secretary General Xi Jinping to invade: China may not wait until it has a significant force advantage, and may make its move instead based on domestic political issues.

    There remain major three major areas of military investments where expected payoffs for Taiwan lend urgency to the effort. First, the ROC needs international ship-building assistance to accelerate its sub-surface deterrence and its indigenous defense submarine (IDS) program. The ROC’s current sub-surface combatants are limited to 2 Hai Lung class and 2 Hai Shih Guppy II class submarines. An unlocated Taiwanese sub-surface force would compel the PLAN’s vulnerable Amphibious LPDs to deploy father offshore, discharging their landing units father from their landing beaches.

    Second, Taiwan’s investment in Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) lags behind that of other similarly threatened middle-sized democracies under threat, like South Korea. One of the clear highlights of the War in Ukraine is the role of Electronic Counter Measure –resistant artillery reconnaissance and strike drones. Third, in order to survive the initial missile strikes and A2/AD capabilities, the ROC needs more underground megastructures for force preservation to prevent C3 denial. Taiwan already has an extensive civil defense shelter system, and now it needs a network along the Taiwanese littoral for ground force survivability.


    Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill is an associate professor of international relations at Concordia University (Montreal) along with Liu Zongzo.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 21:00

  • Failing Forward? Fired CNN Host Brian Stelter Gets Harvard Fellowship
    Failing Forward? Fired CNN Host Brian Stelter Gets Harvard Fellowship

    Disgraced ex-CNN personality Brian Stelter has landed a new gig since he was fired by the struggling network as part of their effort to regain credibility.

    This fall, the former “Reliable Sources” host – who breathlessly peddled Russiagate and other far-left conspiracy theories for half-a-decade – will be joining the Harvard Kennedy School’s Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Safety.

    “Personal news: I’m joining the @ShorensteinCtr at Harvard Kennedy School,” Stelter tweeted. “This fall I’ll be the Walter Shorenstein Media and Democracy Fellow, convening discussions, some of which will be live-streamed. Grateful to @nancygibbs and her team for the home!”

    Harvard confirmed the move, reporting that Stelter “will convene a series of discussions about threats to democracy and the range of potential responses from the news media.”

    Stelter was hired by CNN in 2013 from the New York Times, where he was essentially their Taylor Lorenz. In addition to hosting “Reliable Sources,” Stelter produced a daily email newsletter about the media for CNN.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 20:40

  • Alarm Bells Sound As World's Second Largest Appliance Company Reports Demand Plunge
    Alarm Bells Sound As World’s Second Largest Appliance Company Reports Demand Plunge

    Swedish appliance maker Electrolux AB announced a cost reduction program after reporting a plunge in demand for its home appliances across Europe and the US

    The world’s second-largest home appliances manufacturer after Whirlpool said, “market demand for core appliances in Europe and the US so far in the third quarter is estimated to have decreased at a significantly accelerated pace compared with the second quarter, driven by the impact of high inflation on consumer durables purchases and low consumer confidence.” 

    It noted: “High retailer inventory levels have amplified the impact of the slowdown in consumer demand.” 

    Remember, there’s a massive inventory glut of consumer goods at retailers.  

    Electrolux warned a combination of snarled supply chains had pressured the company, which is expected to report an even more significant operating loss in the third quarter

    “In combination with supply chain imbalances resulting in significant production inefficiencies and increased costs, the third quarter earnings for the Group are expected to decline significantly compared to the second quarter 2022 also excluding the one-time cost to exit the Russia market. This has been driven mainly by Europe and North America. Business Area North America is expected to report an operating loss in the third quarter exceeding the loss in the second quarter.” 

    Waning consumer demand, retailer inventory building, and mounting losses for the Swedish company forced its board to “initiate a Group-wide cost reduction program addressing both variable and structural costs.” Electrolux explained more about the cost reductions:  

    “The program, which starts immediately, will focus on reducing variable costs, with special attention to eliminating cost inefficiencies in our supply chain and production. The structural cost reductions will primarily take place in Europe and North America and include prioritization and efficiency measures leveraging recent organizational changes which took effect July 1. The measures include increasing productivity in operations as well as optimizing the R&D portfolio, administration, sales and marketing activities.”

    The souring outlook for Electrolux initially sent shares down 7% but have since recovered most losses late in the European session. 

    Electrolux’s CEO Jonas Samuelson said consumer confidence is expected to stay depressed in Europe, adding, “I think people will hold on to their wallets quite hard.” The same is likely true in the US — consumers have backed off buying durables goods and focused on purchasing staple products as the highest inflation in decades has sent wage growth deeply negative for more than a year. Households on both sides of the Atlantic are struggling. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 20:28

  • Shipping's 'China Syndrome': Demand Sinks Across Multiple Cargo Markets
    Shipping’s ‘China Syndrome’: Demand Sinks Across Multiple Cargo Markets

    By Greg Miller, of FreightWaves

    In the mid-2000s, when shipping stocks first became popular on Wall Street, the shares were commonly bought as a play on China’s economy. China is pivotal to ocean shipping, whether it’s container ships, oil tankers, bulkers or gas carriers.

    “There’s a saying that everything that moves out of China in containers has to come into China as raw materials,” noted Oeyvind Lindeman, chief commercial officer of Navigator Gas, on his company’s latest conference call. Ominously, signs of China’s weakening economy are showing up across all shipping sectors at once.

    The glass-half-empty view is that pullbacks in shipping demand are bellwethers of more severe economic problems to come. The glass-half-full view is that declines are temporary. A rebound of Chinese demand for iron ore, oil and gas will eventually boost commodity shipping rates.

    Container shipping

    Sales of containerized goods to the U.S. and Europe supported the Chinese economy throughout the pandemic era. Markets were rattled Wednesday when China’s official monthly export stats came in much lighter than expected.

    China’s exports rose 7.1% year on year (y/y) in August, well below the consensus forecast for 12.8% growth. Exports had grown 18% y/y in July. China’s exports to the U.S. declined 3.8% y/y in August, compared to an 11% increase in July.

    Outbound volumes are being squeezed from both sides. Demand for Chinese goods is falling at the same time COVID-19 lockdowns and weather issues are constraining Chinese manufacturing and logistics.

    Index: January 2019 = 100 (Chart: FreightWaves SONAR)

    The government has extended lockdowns in Chengdu and announced new nationwide precautions through the end of October. Analysts do not foresee any relaxation of China’s zero-COVID policy this year.  

    Meanwhile, China recorded its highest temperatures and lowest rainfall in over six decades last month. Resultant power outages forced factory closures in Sichuan.

    Dry bulk imports

    China is the world’s largest producer of steel. Its steel production in January-July was down 6.1% y/y. Production in July fell 10% versus June.

    “The decline in Chinese steel production has predominantly come from the ailing property sector and the stop-start industrial activity due to COVID-19 lockdowns,” wrote Mark Nugent, dry bulk analyst at shipbroker Braemar, in a research note on Thursday.

    Brokerage EastGate Shipping said that the heatwave and power shortages forced 20 steel mills to go offline for around a week in mid-August.

    Steel production drives Chinese demand for iron ore imports, largely from Australia and Brazil. These are the most important cargoes for Capesizes, larger bulkers with capacity of around 180,000 deadweight tons. Average Capesize spot rates collapsed from $38,200 in late May to just $5,600 per day on Friday, according to data from Clarksons Securities.

    Brokerage BRS blamed the plunge on diversions of Australian iron ore from China to Southeast Asia, and more damaging to rates, a sharp decline in Chinese imports of long-haul Brazilian iron ore in August.

    “Scorching temperatures and a relentless zero-COVID policy seriously crippled steel demand in China,” said BRS. It does not expect a full recovery of Chinese steel production until next spring, “casting doubts on a radical rebound in seaborne iron ore demand.”

    Oil imports

    China is by far the world’s largest importer of oil. Chinese imports are the most important driver for spot rates of larger 2-million-barrel-capacity tankers known as very large crude carriers.

    According to Poten & Partners, Chinese crude imports grew rapidly from 4.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2009 to 10.1 million b/d in 2019. Growth slowed in 2020 when the pandemic hit and declined by 550,000 b/d in 2021.

    Chinese imports sank to 8.7 million b/d in June, the lowest monthly average since July 2018. Imports were 8.8 million b/d in July and 9.5 million b/d in August. In the first eight months of this year, Chinese crude imports fell 5.2% versus the same period in 2021.

    The International Energy Agency said in its latest outlook that China’s lockdowns “set back our projected demand recovery by two months.”

    BRS noted that China has 920,000 b/d in new refinery capacity scheduled to come online by the end of the year. Normally, that would increase crude import demand. However, China’s refining capacity is already higher than domestic consumption and the government has not been pushing exports.

    “Considering our relatively pessimistic short-term outlook for China, [with] COVID and lockdowns to remain a going concern until at least the beginning of next year, we expect little upside in Chinese runs as Beijing appears unwilling to permit its refiners to focus on export markets,” said BRS.

    LPG shipping

    China also is one of the world’s largest importers of liquefied petroleum gas (LNG): propane and butane. 

    Beyond its use for energy, China imports propane as feedstock for propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants for the creation of propylene. The propylene is used to produce polypropylene, which is in turn used to manufacture plastic.

    Tim Hansen, chief commercial officer of Dorian LPG (NYSE: LPG), referred to Chinese demand headwinds during his company’s latest call. Hansen cited “renewed impact of COVID-19 lockdowns” and worries about Chinese demand that “were a factor for market players, which resulted in more risk-averse [behavior] and reduced opportunistic trades.”

    According to Lindeman of Navigator Gas, “All eyes are on China and when they are getting out of their malaise.”

    LNG shipping

    In the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, Europe is now buying a much higher share of U.S. exports than usual due to fallout from the Ukraine-Russia war.

    Oystein Kalleklev, CEO of Flex LNG (NYSE: FLNG), said on his company’s latest call: “In a sense, you could say that Europe has been very lucky, because the cooldown in the Chinese economy driven by COVID lockdowns has resulted in lower demand from China.

    “Chinese imports this year are down by more than 20% [or] 9 million tons. And European buyers have been able to get access to these cargoes, which would have been a lot more difficult if the Chinese economy was running at normal capacity.”

    Kalleklev believes China will come back to the LNG import market, in a big way, pointing to commitments for new volumes that have yet to come onstream.

    “Even though China has a reduction in LNG imports this year, they are signing for almost half of these new volumes, because the LNG story in China is in its early phases,” Kalleklev said. “This year, actually, Japan will probably import more LNG than China. And there are more than 10 times as many people in China. So, China will continue to grow once they get control of COVID and reflate their economy.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 20:20

  • Biden Immigration Boss Apologizes After CBP 'Retweets' Ex-Trump Adviser Stephen Miller
    Biden Immigration Boss Apologizes After CBP ‘Retweets’ Ex-Trump Adviser Stephen Miller

    While Vice President Kamala Harris has assured us that the southern US border is ‘secure’ (despite illegal immigration on track for a record-breaking 2 million arrests this fiscal year), some Customs and Border Protection social media kid is probably out of a job for ‘liking’ a tweet by former Trump senior adviser Stephen Miller which was critical of the Biden administration’s immigration policies.

    Former White House adviser Stephen Miller

    “Violent criminals lay waste to our communities undisturbed while the immense power of the state is arrayed against those whose only crime is dissent,” Miller tweeted. “The law has been turned from a shield to protect the innocent into a sword to conquer them.”

    In a separate tweet, Miller said that “The media’s greatest power is its ability to frame what is a dire national crisis (eg “cops are racist” summer ’20) and what is not. Biden’s eradication of our border means we are no longer a Republic-he’s ended nearly 250 years of constitutional government. The media is silent.”

    Both of which CBP West Texas retweeted.

    Where’s the lie?

    Liberals promptly melted down – resulting in CBP Commissioner Chris Magnus apologizing for the retweets.

    “This must not happen again,” he tweeted Saturday.

    We hope whoever tweeted that lands on their feet.

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    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 20:00

  • GOP Leader Says Homes Of Trump Supporters May Soon Be Raided By FBI
    GOP Leader Says Homes Of Trump Supporters May Soon Be Raided By FBI

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A top former Republican leader and prominent attorney has said that the homes of more supporters of former President Donald Trump may soon be raided by FBI agents—weeks after the unprecedented Aug. 8 raid of Mar-a-Lago.

    Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally Casper, Wyo., on May 28, 2022. (Chet Strange/Getty Images)

    Harmeet Dhillon, who was the vice chairwoman of the California Republican Party, told Fox News that within 24 hours of a Politico reporter’s Twitter post claiming that the FBI is ready to serve warrants, “three of our clients … did either get search warrants or subpoenas. And these subpoenas are extremely broad.

    In a Twitter post, Dhillon alleged that someone within the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Jan. 6 team “told a Politico reporter that 50 or so search warrants and grand jury subpoenas were being issued to Trump allies—before it happened. Clients, already being harassed by House J6 Committee investigators.

    “Our clients [Women for America First] are among those targeted for their peaceful, First-Amendment-protected, speech about 2020 election,” she wrote. “These bullying tactics are designed to target [and] intimidate Trump supporters.”

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    She did not elaborate on the other individuals who may be targeted by the FBI, including whether they were Trump administration staffers or associates of the former president. Last week, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon was arrested and charged by New York state officials for allegedly partaking in a scheme connected to a private border wall construction effort.

    Dhillon added that the subpoenas “ask for broad categories of documents” and ask “for all communications dating from a month before the election until a month, two months after the election.”

    The Epoch Times has contacted the Department of Justice (DOJ) and FBI for comment.

    The subpoenas “ask for all communications regarding dozens of people and the categories are alternate electors, fundraising around irregularities around the election,” Dhillon told host Tucker Carlson, “and also a rally that happened before the Jan. 6 situation at the Capitol.”

    Attorney Harmeet Dhillon, former vice chairwoman of the California Republican Party, speaks at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio on July 19, 2016. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

    Dhillon then speculated that based on the Politico reporter’s Twitter post, the FBI is leaking information to reporters before they’re executed. For years, Trump and members of his team have accused the agency of passing on confidential information or even disinformation to mainstream outlets in a bid to denigrate his presidency and reelection chances.

    “There’s no other explanation for this,” the lawyer said. “And I think the reason for this is to instill fear into Donald Trump’s supporters and into those who would challenge election irregularities right before an upcoming election.

    She did note, however, that it is “illegal for the DOJ to leak this information to the media.”

    Special Master

    In the battle over whether to appoint a special master in handling documents that were taken from Trump’s Florida residence last month by FBI agents, a Florida federal judge, Aileen Cannon, last week sided with the former president and argued that leaks to the media would cause him harm. She ordered the appointment of a special master, while the DOJ appealed the decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, which features six Trump-appointed judges.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 19:40

  • San Francisco Is On The Verge Of An Economic Reckoning
    San Francisco Is On The Verge Of An Economic Reckoning

    Known for decades as a bug hive of progressive ideology and ground zero for many socialist movements within the US, San Francisco is no stranger to instability.  However, the political schizophrenia of the region was long tempered by extensive business interests and California’s profit potential.  Entrepreneurs helped to balance out the cultism and CA was lucky enough to see unprecedented economic fortune.  Many leftist politicians to this day try to take credit for the prosperity of the state, but the days of wine and roses are long gone.  

    While LA lost its shining gloss in the early 1970s when crime rates began to skyrocket, San Francisco was able to hold on to its affluent image for much longer and was once considered one of the greatest cities in the US.  The silicon valley revolution extended the otherwise dwindling life span of the area as major tech companies set up shop well into the 2000s, but the past decade in particular has not been so kind to the Bay Area.  

    This may be because the traditional dynamic has changed.  The free market mentality of the business contingent used to keep the insanity of the Frisco leftist ideologues in check, but now, the corporate world has joined the cult and is engaging in activism right along side all the crazies.  There is no longer any balance – California and specifically San Francisco went “full retard.”  

    The city is now famous for its depravity and decline.  With multiple “poop tracking” apps to help residents avoid stepping in human fecal matter piled on the sidewalks as well as entire neighborhoods and street corners overrun with homeless people and Fentanyl addicts, it’s very hard for the city to play itself off as a destination of dreams (though they still try).  Much like LA and the city of Portland, wherever the political left takes full control these are the kinds of unfortunate scenes you are likely to witness on a regular basis in San Francisco:

    Recent estimates project at least 20,000 homeless will reside in the city in 2022, and poverty levels will remain around 11.3% of the population.  Previous homeless estimates date back to 2019, and surveys were skipped in 2020 due to the covid lockdowns.  The Bay Area’s crime rates are FAR above the national average according to FBI stats, with property crime more than double that of the rest of the US.    

    The social implosion along with the draconian CA covid mandates caused hundreds of thousands of people to flee the state.  Progressives moved out of the major cities as well, but only about one hour away on average.  The top destinations for people leaving San Francisco were Sacramento, Stockton and San Diego according to U-Haul statistics.  The rumors of conservative states like Texas being overtaken by CA leftists are greatly exaggerated, but the stats do show that CA residents are indeed moving away from the big cities in large numbers and expanding into 2nd tier cities and smaller towns close by.    

    San Francisco saw a 6.8% population decline from 2020 to 2021.  Sales tax revenues dropped by 50% from 2019 to 2020 and city officials do not expect a recovery until 2025. 

    The effects of the exodus along with political mismanagement by Democrats is leading to a complete implosion of California’s major cities.  The mainstream media and the state’s PR spin teams are fond of citing their global financial standings, but what they have been hiding is the steady decline in major population centers and the fact that places like San Francisco are built on foundations of economic sand.  

    The most visible signals of collapse are in the real estate market for now.  Residential home sales have cratered by around 30% and prices are beginning to drop.  Though, a loss in home sales is happening across the country and median home prices in California spiked by at least 36% in the past two years.  It’s unlikely that they will fall back to previous lows anytime soon, even with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. 

    The real damage is in commercial real estate.  Mass office vacancies in San Francisco have not been repaired and the city’s downtown recovery has ranked dead-last out of 60 US metropolitan areas.  Commercial property value losses are now estimated to average around 40%.  In some cases, bids for office space in downtown San Francisco are coming in at 60%-70% less than they would have in 2019.   

    The region’s core financial support comes from the wealth activity in the city’s center, and now it’s crumbling because no businesses want to operate there (nor can many of them afford to operate there due to taxation).  The amazing thing is, they did it to themselves.  

    Impractical and destructive green tech and carbon laws, totalitarian covid lockdowns and mandates, extremely high taxes and endless bureaucratic red tape have all incrementally sabotaged the cities of the Golden State.  And, the worst of it began the moment business interests decided to stop caring about profits and growth and instead felt the need to virtue signal their political loyalties and push leftist propaganda.  This emboldened far-left factions within the cities and gave them a free pass to implement whatever insane policies they wanted.  Thus, the golden goose has been destroyed.

    CA politicians and leftists will continue to deny reality, but the state is on life support and it’s fading fast.  San Francisco is a prime example of the obvious fall.  By this time next year they won’t even try to hide it, they’ll only be looking for a scapegoat to blame.    

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 19:20

  • "It's Very Big Size" – FOMO Sparks Big Bullish, Levered Bets Ahead Of CPI
    “It’s Very Big Size” – FOMO Sparks Big Bullish, Levered Bets Ahead Of CPI

    As we noted earlier, stocks squeezed higher for the 4th straight day, but VIX (unusually) rose today along with the equity indices (extending the decoupling we started to see on Friday)…

    Source: Bloomberg

    These are the tell-tale footprints of large levered-long bets being placed as options traders chase the market higher.

    And, as Bloomberg reports, a number of large, bullish bets were flagged following last week’s reports from Goldman’s trading desk that they’d seen the largest notional long-buying in a year ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print.

    There were “several examples of investors turning to upside calls for exposure to (or protection against) further momentum, both outright and versus downside put sales,” Christopher Jacobson, a strategist at Susquehanna Financial Group, wrote in a note.

    “They could certainly be driven by investors who are underweight looking to these upside calls for limited-risk exposure.”

    Susquehanna pointed out one trader that paid 53 cents each for 30,000 calls betting the iShares Russell 2000 ETF would rise to $199 by month-end. Another involved paying about $2.65 for roughly 15,000 calls linked to the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (ticker XBI) with a strike price at $100 expiring in November.

    Danny Kirsch, head of options at Piper Sandler, noticed a rather large derivatives trade coinciding with the initial rally.

    One trader paid $90 each for 9,000 S&P 500 calls (at a cost of around $80 million) wagering that the S&P 500 would rally to 4,300 by December.

    Putting this altogether, we see the Put-Call ratio collapse today…

    “It’s very big size,” said Kirsch. “Maybe someone is under-invested or just bullish looking to play for year-end rally.”

    We do note that the morning started off with S&P Delta having shifted into positive territory ahead of today’s squeeze and the event risk of tomorrow…

    But as we noted, CTA flo-flops from short-to-long are the ammo needed for the next leg to squeeze higher from significant negative delta lows.

    Just bear in mind one thing…

    The S&P 500 has lost 0.5% on average on a CPI day YTD.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 18:40

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Today’s News 12th September 2022

  • Koala Or Elephant – How Many Hours A Day Do You Sleep?
    Koala Or Elephant – How Many Hours A Day Do You Sleep?

    Every animal has to rest in some way, but some animals need a lot more sleep than others.

    This graphic by Giulia De Amicis uses data from startsleeping.com to show the typical sleeping patterns of 40 different animals, highlighting their average sleep times, and what percentage of each 24-hour day they spend resting.

    Compared to the rest of the animals featured in the graphic, humans need a relatively small amount of sleep.

    We sleep for an average of eight hours – or 33% of our day.

    In contrast, Koalas sleep up to 22 hours a day, or 87.5% of the day. This is mostly because of the Koala’s diet – Koalas eat Eucalyptus leaves, which are toxic and take a lot of energy to digest.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 02:45

  • EU Ministers Call For 10% Cut In Energy Consumption
    EU Ministers Call For 10% Cut In Energy Consumption

    By Julieanne Geiger of OilPrice.com

    A meeting of EU energy ministers on Friday has suggested that each EU country implement strategies to reduce overall electricity consumption by a minimum of 10 percent, the Wall Street Journal has reported. 

    The EU should also reduce electricity by at least 5% during peak price hours, according to a draft document seen by the WSJ. 

    The EU asked its members earlier this summer to reduce gas consumption by 15% starting this fall and running through the winter.

    While initially a request, it left the door open for it to become mandatory should the need arise.

    The 15% gas cut framework could also be applied to Friday’s plan to cut electricity usage by 10%, the ministers said on Friday.  

    According to the WSJ, the electricity rationing plan appears to have support from many member states. 

    The emergency EU energy minister meeting was held on Friday to discuss skyrocketing consumer energy bills and a price cap on Russian natural gas. The meeting concluded without a concrete plan, with the group stating that more work needed to be done. Proposals for potentially capping the price of Russian gas—a controversial measure that critics claim will be ineffective—are due mid-September. 

    Russia, for its part, has vowed to withhold gas exports to countries engaged in price capping, threatening to let Europe freeze if it runs contrary to Russia’s interests. Nevertheless, the EU seems determined to show its resolve on the matter to find a solution to restricting Russia’s oil and gas revenues. 

    Friday’s emergency meeting is just the latest of many efforts the EU has made to quash economic upheaval due to industry shutdowns, and to prevent protests due to skyrocketing energy prices. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 09/12/2022 – 02:00

  • Pilger: Silencing The Lambs – How Propaganda Works
    Pilger: Silencing The Lambs – How Propaganda Works

    Authored by John Pilger via ConsortiumNews.com,

    In the 1970s, I met one of Hitler’s leading propagandists, Leni Riefenstahl, whose epic films glorified the Nazis. We happened to be staying at the same lodge in Kenya, where she was on a photography assignment, having escaped the fate of other friends of the Fuhrer.

    She told me that the “patriotic messages” of her films were dependent not on “orders from above” but on what she called the “submissive void” of the German public.

    Did that include the liberal, educated bourgeoisie? I asked.  “Yes, especially them,” she said. 

    I think of this as I look around at the propaganda now consuming Western societies. 

    Of course, we are very different from Germany in the 1930s. We live in information societies. We are globalists. We have never been more aware, more in touch, better connected. 

    Leni Riefenstahl, center, filming with two assistants, 1936. (Bundesarchiv, CC-BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)

    Or do we in the West live in a Media Society where brainwashing is insidious and relentless, and perception is filtered according to the needs and lies of state and corporate power? 

    The United States dominates the Western world’s media. All but one of the top 10 media companies are based in North America. The internet and social media – Google, Twitter, Facebook – are mostly American owned and controlled.

    In my lifetime, the United States has overthrown or attempted to overthrow more than 50 governments, mostly democracies. It has interfered in democratic elections in 30 countries. It has dropped bombs on the people of 30 countries, most of them poor and defenceless. It has attempted to murder the leaders of 50 countries.  It has fought to suppress liberation movements in 20 countries. 

    The extent and scale of this carnage is largely unreported, unrecognised, and those responsible continue to dominate Anglo-American political life.

    Harold Pinter Broke the Silence

    In the years before he died in 2008, the playwright Harold Pinter made two extraordinary speeches, which broke a silence.

    “U.S. foreign policy,” he said, is

    “best defined as follows: kiss my arse or I’ll kick your head in. It is as simple and as crude as that. What is interesting about it is that it’s so incredibly successful. It possesses the structures of disinformation, use of rhetoric, distortion of language, which are very persuasive, but are actually a pack of lies. It is very successful propaganda. They have the money, they have the technology, they have all the means to get away with it, and they do.”

    In accepting the Nobel Prize for Literature, Pinter said this: 

    “The crimes of the United States have been systematic, constant, vicious, remorseless, but very few people have actually talked about them. You have to hand it to America. It has exercised a quite clinical manipulation of power worldwide while masquerading as a force for universal good. It’s a brilliant, even witty, highly successful act of hypnosis.”

    Pinter was a friend of mine and possibly the last great political sage – that is, before dissenting politics were gentrified. I asked him if the “hypnosis” he referred to was the “submissive void” described by Leni Riefenstahl. 

    “It’s the same,” he replied. “It means the brainwashing is so thorough we are programmed to swallow a pack of lies. If we don’t recognise propaganda, we may accept it as normal and believe it. That’s the submissive void.”

    Leni Riefenstahl and a camera crew stand in front of Hitler’s car during 1934 rally in Nuremberg. (Bundesarchiv, CC-BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)

    In our systems of corporate democracy, war is an economic necessity, the perfect marriage of public subsidy and private profit: socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor. The day after 9/11 the stock prices of the war industry soared. More bloodshed was coming, which is great for business.

    Today, the most profitable wars have their own brand. They are called “forever wars” — Afghanistan, Palestine, Iraq, Libya, Yemen and now Ukraine. All are based on a pack of lies.

    Iraq is the most infamous, with its weapons of mass destruction that didn’t exist. NATO’s destruction of Libya in 2011 was justified by a massacre in Benghazi that didn’t happen. Afghanistan was a convenient revenge war for 9/11, which had nothing to do with the people of Afghanistan. 

    Today, the news from Afghanistan is how evil the Taliban are —not that U.S. President Joe Biden’s theft of $7 billion of the country’s bank reserves is causing widespread suffering. Recently, National Public Radio in Washington devoted two hours to Afghanistan — and 30 seconds to its starving people.

    At its summit in Madrid in June, NATO, which is controlled by the United States, adopted a strategy document that militarises the European continent, and escalates the prospect of war with Russia and China. It proposes “multi domain warfighting against nuclear-armed peer-competitor.” In other words, nuclear war.

    NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, left, and Spain’s Prime Minster Pedro Sánchez on June 28 in Madrid. (NATO)

    It says: “NATO’s enlargement has been an historic success.” 

    I read that in disbelief. 

    The news from the war in Ukraine is mostly not news, but a one-sided litany of jingoism, distortion, omission.  I have reported a number of wars and have never known such blanket propaganda. 

    In February, Russia invaded Ukraine as a response to almost eight years of killing and criminal destruction in the Russian-speaking region of Donbass on their border. 

    In 2014, the United States had sponsored a coup in Kiev that got rid of Ukraine’s democratically elected, Russian-friendly president and installed a successor whom the Americans made clear was their man. 

    Dec. 7, 2015: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden meets with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Kiev. (U.S. Embassy Kyiv, Flickr)

    In recent years, American “defender” missiles have been installed in eastern Europe, Poland, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, almost certainly aimed at Russia, accompanied by false assurances all the way back to James Baker’s “promise” to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in February 1990 that NATO would never expand beyond Germany. 

    NATO on Hitler’s Borderline

    Ukraine is the frontline. NATO has effectively reached the very borderland through which Hitler’s army stormed in 1941, leaving more than 23 million dead in the Soviet Union. 

    Last December, Russia proposed a far-reaching security plan for Europe. This was dismissed, derided or suppressed in the Western media. Who read its step-by-step proposals? On Feb. 24, President Volodymyr Zelensky threatened to develop nuclear weapons unless America armed and protected Ukraine.  

    On the same day, Russia invaded — an unprovoked act of congenital infamy, according to the Western media. The history, the lies, the peace proposals, the solemn agreements on Donbass at Minsk counted for nothing.

    On April 25, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin flew into Kiev and confirmed that America’s aim was to destroy the Russian Federation — the word he used was “weaken.” America had got the war it wanted, waged by an American bankrolled and armed proxy and expendable pawn.

    Almost none of this was explained to Western audiences.

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is wanton and inexcusable. It is a crime to invade a sovereign country. There are no “buts” — except one.

    When did the present war in Ukraine begin and who started it? According to the United Nations, between 2014 and this year, some 14,000 people have been killed in the Kiev regime’s civil war on the Donbass. Many of the attacks were carried out by neo-Nazis. 

    Watch an ITV news report from May 2014, by the veteran reporter James Mates, who is shelled, along with civilians in the city of Mariupol, by Ukraine’s Azov (neo-Nazi) battalion.

    In the same month, dozens of Russian-speaking people were burned alive or suffocated in a trade union building in Odessa besieged by fascist thugs, the followers of the Nazi collaborator and anti-Semitic fanatic Stepan Bandera.  The New York Times called the thugs “nationalists.”

    “The historic mission of our nation in this critical moment,” said Andreiy Biletsky, founder of the Azov Battaltion, “is to lead the White Races of the world in a final crusade for their survival, a crusade against the Semite-led Untermenschen.”

    Since February, a campaign of self-appointed “news monitors” (mostly funded by the Americans and British with links to governments) have sought to maintain the absurdity that Ukraine’s neo-Nazis don’t exist. 

    Airbrushing, once associated with Stalin’s purges, has become a tool of mainstream journalism.

    In less than a decade, a “good” China has been airbrushed and a “bad” China has replaced it: from the world’s workshop to a budding new Satan.  

    Much of this propaganda originates in the U.S., and is transmitted through proxies and “think-tanks,” such as the notorious Australian Strategic Policy Institute, the voice of the arms industry, and by journalists such as Peter Hartcher of The Sydney Morning Herald, who has labeled those spreading Chinese influence as “rats, flies, mosquitoes and sparrows” and suggested these “pests” be “eradicated.” 

    Andriy Beletsky, commanding officer of the special Ukrainian neo-Nazi police regiment Azov, with volunteers in 2014. (My News24, CC BY 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)

    News about China in the West is almost entirely about the threat from Beijing. Airbrushed are the 400 American military bases that surround most of China, an armed necklace that reaches from Australia to the Pacific and south east Asia, Japan and Korea. The Japanese island of Okinawa and the Korean island of Jeju are like loaded guns aimed point blank at the industrial heart of China. A Pentagon official described this as a “noose.”

    Palestine has been misreported for as long as I can remember. To the BBC, there is the “conflict” of “two narratives.” The longest, most brutal, lawless military occupation in modern times is unmentionable. 

    The stricken people of Yemen barely exist. They are media unpeople.  While the Saudis rain down their American cluster bombs with British advisers working alongside the Saudi targeting officers, more than half a million children face starvation.

    This brainwashing by omission is not new. The slaughter of the First World War was suppressed by reporters who were given knighthoods for their compliance.  In 1917, the editor of The Manchester Guardian, C.P. Scott, confided to Prime Minister Lloyd George: “If people really knew [the truth], the war would be stopped tomorrow, but they don’t know and can’t know.”

    The refusal to see people and events as those in other countries see them is a media virus in the West, as debilitating as Covid.  It is as if we see the world through a one-way mirror, in which “we” are moral and benign and “they” are not. It is a profoundly imperial view.

    The history that is a living presence in China and Russia is rarely explained and rarely understood. Vladimir Putin is Adolf Hitler. Xi Jinping is Fu Man Chu. Epic achievements, such as the eradication of abject poverty in China, are barely known. How perverse and squalid this is.

    When will we allow ourselves to understand? Training journalists factory style is not the answer. Neither is the wondrous digital tool, which is a means, not an end, like the one-finger typewriter and the linotype machine.

    In recent years, some of the best journalists have been eased out of the mainstream. “Defenestrated” is the word used. The spaces once open to mavericks, to journalists who went against the grain, truth-tellers, have closed.  

    Julian Assange in 2014. (David G Silvers, Wikimedia Commons)

    The case of Julian Assange is the most shocking.  When Julian and WikiLeaks could win readers and prizes for The GuardianThe New York Times and other self-important “papers of record,” he was celebrated. 

    When the dark state objected and demanded the destruction of hard drives and the assassination of Julian’s character, he was made a public enemy. Vice President Joe Biden compared him to a “hi-tech terrorist.” Hillary Clinton asked, “Can’t we just drone this guy?” 

    The ensuing campaign of abuse and vilification against Julian Assange — the U.N. rapporteur on torture called it “mobbing” — brought the liberal press to its lowest ebb. We know who they are. I think of them as collaborators: as Vichy journalists. 

    When will real journalists stand up? An inspirational samizdat  already exists on the internet: Consortium News, founded by the great reporter Robert Parry, Max Blumenthal’s  The GrayzoneMint Press News, Media Lens, DeclassifiedUK, Alborada, Electronic IntifadaWSWSZNetICH, CounterPunchIndependent Australia, the work of Chris Hedges, Patrick Lawrence, Jonathan Cook, Diana Johnstone, Caitlin Johnstone and others who will forgive me for not mentioning them here. 

    And when will writers stand up, as they did against the rise of fascism in the 1930s? When will film-makers stand up, as they did against the Cold War in the 1940s? When will satirists stand up, as they did a generation ago? 

    Having soaked for 82 years in a deep bath of righteousness that is the official version of the last world war, isn’t it time those who are meant to keep the record straight declared their independence and decoded the propaganda? The urgency is greater than ever.

    *  *  *

    John Pilger has twice won Britain’s highest award for journalism and has been International Reporter of the Year, News Reporter of the Year and Descriptive Writer of the Year. He has made 61 documentary films and has won an Emmy, a BAFTA and the Royal Television Society prize. His ‘Cambodia Year Zero’ is named as one of the ten most important films of the 20th century. He can be contacted at www.johnpilger.com

    The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of ZeroHedge or Consortium News.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 23:30

  • Comparing All The Upcoming Electric Semi-Truck Models
    Comparing All The Upcoming Electric Semi-Truck Models

    Electric semi trucks are coming, and they could help to decarbonize the shipping and logistics industry. However, range remains a major limitation.

    This presents challenges for long-hauling, where the average diesel-powered semi can travel up to 2,000 miles before refueling. Compare this to the longest range electric model, the Tesla Semi, which promises up to 500 miles. A key word here is “promises”—the Semi is still in development, and nothing has been proven yet.

    In this infographic, Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu and Zack Aboulazm have listed all of the upcoming electric semi trucks, complete with range and charge time estimates. Further in the article, we’ll explore the potential commercial use cases of this first generation of trucks.

    Model Overview

    The following table includes all of the models included in the above infographic.

    With the exception of Tesla’s Semi, all of these trucks are currently in operation or expected to begin delivering this year. You may want to take this with a grain of salt, as the electric vehicle industry has become notorious for delays.

     

    In terms of range, Tesla and Nikola are promising the highest figures (300+ miles), while the rest of the competition is targeting between 150 to 275 miles. It’s reasonable to assume that the Tesla and Nikola semis will be the most expensive.

    Charge times are difficult to compare because of the variables involved. This includes the amount of charge and the type of charger used. Nikola, for example, claims it will take 2 hours to charge its Tre BEV from 10% to 80% when using a 240kW charger.

    Charger technology is also improving quickly. Tesla is believed to be rolling out a 1 MW (1,000 kW) charger that could add 400 miles of range in just 30 minutes.

    Use Cases of Electric Semi Trucks

    Given their relatively lower ranges, electric semis are unlikely to be used for long hauls.

    Instead, they’re expected to be deployed on regional and urban routes, where the total distance traveled between destinations is much lower. There are many reasons why electric semis are suited for these routes, as listed below:

    • Smaller batteries can be installed, which keeps the cost of the truck lower

    • Urban routes provide greater opportunities to use regenerative braking

    • Quieter and cleaner operation in densely populated areas

    An example of a regional route would be delivering containers from the Port of Los Angeles to the Los Angeles Transportation Center Intermodal Facility (LATC). The LATC is where containers are loaded onto trains, and is located roughly 28 miles away.

    With a round trip totaling nearly 60 miles, an electric semi with a range of 200 miles could feasibly complete this route three times before needing a charge. The truck could be charged overnight, as well as during off hours in the middle of the day.

    Hydrogen for Long Hauls?

    We’ve covered the differences between battery and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the past, but this was from a passenger car perspective. The conclusion, in that case, was that battery electric has become the dominant technology. In terms of long-haul trucking, however, hydrogen may have an edge.

    If we look at what will become mainstream, probably for smaller mobility it will be EVs, and fuel cells for larger mobility. That is the conclusion so far.

    -TOSHIHIRO MIBE, CEO, HONDA

    There are several reasons for why hydrogen could be beneficial for delivering heavy cargo over long distances. These are listed below:

    • Refueling a hydrogen fuel cell takes less time than recharging a battery. Note, however, that charge times are still improving.

    • A fuel cell configuration is typically lighter than an equivalent battery pack. Less drivetrain weight translates to a higher cargo capacity.

    • Hydrogen-powered trucks could achieve a much higher range.

    This last point hasn’t been proven yet, but we can reference Nikola, which is developing hydrogen-powered semi trucks. The company has two models in the works, which are the Tre FCEV with a range of 500 miles, and the Two FCEV with a range of 900 miles.

    Keep in mind that these numbers are once again estimates and that Nikola has been accused of fraud in the past.

    Who’s Using Electric Semi Trucks Today?

    Although there are very few models available, electric semi trucks are indeed being used today.

    In January 2020, Anheuser-Busch announced that it had received its 100th 8TT. The 8TT is produced by China’s BYD Motors and was one of the first electric semis to see real-world application. The brewing company uses its 8TTs to deliver products to retail destinations across California (e.g. grocery stores).

    Another U.S. company using electric semis is Walmart. The retailer is trialing both the eCascadia from Freightliner and the Tre BEV from Nikola. The trucks are being used to pick up cargo from suppliers and then deliver it to regional consolidation centers.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 23:00

  • Could Russia's Sudden Ukraine Retreat Mean A Tactical Nuclear Weapons Strike Is Coming?
    Could Russia’s Sudden Ukraine Retreat Mean A Tactical Nuclear Weapons Strike Is Coming?

    Authored by Michael Rubin via 19fortyfive.com,

    How the Situation in Ukraine Could Get Far More Dangerous

    After days of a withering Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Russian defense ministry announced that it was withdrawing its forces from two areas in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. In a video statement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky quipped, “The Russian army in these days is demonstrating the best that it can do — showing its back.” Ukrainians celebrated, and rightly so. While Russian spokesmen said that Russian forces were “repositioning” ahead of a new offensive, reporters on the ground cast doubt on such pronouncements both because they mirror Russian statements as it abandoned its drive toward Kyiv and also because Russian forces left in such great haste that they left numerous arms and equipment behind.

    Western officials are understandably happy. “This [Ukrainian progress] shows the bravery, skills, and determination of Ukrainian forces, and it shows that our support is making a difference every day on the battlefield,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at a September 9 press conference. Reflecting on his recent trip to Ukraine, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken observed at the same press conference, “Even as President Putin threw as much as he could against Ukraine earlier this summer, Ukraine absorbed the blow and now is pushing back.”

    While it is right to celebrate the Russian rout, the war may be entering a far more dangerous phase.

    Consider: If Russian President Vladimir Putin tired of attrition and decided to use tactical nuclear weapons, how would Russian behavior—a rapid withdrawal and even leaving key equipment behind—be different? The answer: It would not be.

    The Biden administration allowed fear of Russian nuclear weapons to self-deter and to limit deliveries of the weaponry that Ukrainian forces needed in the first weeks of the war. Fortunately, against the backdrop of Ukrainian perseverance, they recognized how unbecoming a policy governed by fear and weakness could be. That does not mean, however, that the United States and NATO should not have a contingency plan both to head off Russian use of nuclear weapons and respond to their use should Putin now cross the line.

    The White House and U.S. intelligence community may feel confident that they will have forewarning should Putin give the order to deploy tactical nuclear weapons. They may believe that satellite photographs, signals intelligence, and human intelligence will provide a clear picture.  The nature of intelligence, however, is that there is always doubt and deception. Just as late Al Qaeda leader Usama Bin Laden used old-fashioned messengers rather than email or cell phones, so too might some core Russian commanders. During its 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah successfully demonstrated the ability to conceal long-range missiles, thanks both to diversions designed to be discovered as well as other underground facilities, all built by North Korean engineers. This is not to suggest a North Korean angle to Ukraine, but certainly, Russian strategists look at lessons learned from every conflict.

    Nor is it necessarily true that Putin would try to hide in advance tactical nuclear warhead use. In 2012, President Barack Obama drew a “redline” around the use of chemical and biological weapons in Syria. When Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces subsequently used chemical weapons against a Damascus suburb, Obama stood down. Partisans subsequently questioned the existence of a redline. This was disingenuous as senior Obama officials had supplemented press reporting at the time with background press calls to think tankers and opinion leaders to enunciate how serious Obama was about his redline. When that wordplay did not work, many opposed to enforcing the redline shifted tack and argued that from the perspective of the bombs’ victims, it mattered little whether their death came from gas or explosive maiming. After all, the result was the same. Lost was any appreciation for what the end to the stigma associated with chemical weapons might mean for future warfare.

    Putin might count on proponents fearful of any robust reaction to resurrect the post-chemical redline arguments in the aftermath of a tactical nuclear strike. He might calculate that Washington and Brussels will always look for a reason not to act or escalate and that both will be willing to engage in logical somersaults to do so. Simply put, Putin might calculate that Washington will paralyze itself until the danger of retaliation passes.

    It is for this reason that the White House and NATO should make clear upfront that this will not work. They should detail the pain Russia will suffer should withdrawal be a feint ahead of tactical nuclear use against Ukrainian forces and cities. Such pain should not only include truly crippling sanctions rather than cosmetic half-measures but also include enhancing the ability of Ukraine to expand the zone of hostility to the entirety of Russia, from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean. They should also detail the eventual financial and territorial reparations owed to Ukraine and all countries downwind from any radioactive exposure as well as those countries long victimized by the Russian informal empire.

    The free world owes Zelensky a debt of gratitude for refusing White House advice to evacuate ahead of the initial Russian invasion. Biden, to his credit, overcame that mistake and allowed Ukraine’s president to do more than any leader since Winston Churchill to defend freedom and democracy in the face of evil. Zelensky deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.

    The policy decisions now looming for Biden may be as great. Celebrations may be premature if Putin seeks to achieve through nuclear weapons what he could not with manpower. To remain silent now, downplay the threat that Russia might use its tactical nuclear weapons, or let fear govern policy will mean the end of the post-World War II liberal order.

    As the Ukraine war enters a crucial new phase, it is time both to step up deterrence and plan for what comes after Russian first use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 22:30

  • Chinese PLA Drones Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line For 1st Time, Now Regularly Buzz Island
    Chinese PLA Drones Cross Taiwan Strait Median Line For 1st Time, Now Regularly Buzz Island

    Taiwan’s military has announced in a fresh statement that in the last days China’s PLA military has for the first time sent drones across the Taiwan Strait’s median line, which has long served as the de facto line separating Chinese from Taiwanese territory – though after Nancy Pelosi’s Aug.2nd visit to Taipei Chinese officials said the line has effectively been obliterated. 

    The ministry said, recounting PLA actions of the past days through early Monday, that “45 PLA aircraft flew around Taiwan on Thursday, 25 of which crossed the median line, including a BT-100 unmanned aerial vehicle.” And according to The South China Morning Post, Beijing “also confirmed that more drones had crossed the line on Friday and Saturday.”

    Image of Chinese drone in action published by regional media in prior days.

    “On Monday, it said another PLA drone — identified as a BZK-007 — had entered Taiwan’s southwest air defense identification zone, a rare revelation of the model and its flight route,” the SCMP report continued.

    The report further cited an anonymous Chinese official with knowledge of PLA operations, who said Beijing has been stepping up its “encirclement patrols” using drones as well as manned aircraft, particularly after the earlier in the month incident wherein Taiwan shot down a civilian drone after it came near a Taiwan-controlled island just off China’s mainland.

    That prior September 1st live fire incident involved a potential ‘hobby drone’ believed to be from the Chinese mainland entering “the airspace over the restricted waters of Shiyu Island,” according to a Taiwan defense ministry statement at the time. It was a “first” which signaled further escalation between the two sides.

    The anonymous Chinese analyst or official cited by SCMP commented as follows:

    The PLA used to send UAVs to perform reconnaissance tasks in sensitive areas of the sky before sending fighter jets for special missions, but the Taiwanese military wasn’t aware of it until recently.”

    Saturday saw a huge number of Chinese jets and warships in the area just off the self-ruled island…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Taiwan has meanwhile been reiterating warnings that its military won’t hesitate to exercise right of self-defense and to counter-attack in the event of Chinese forces entering its territory.

    The military will determine “whether to engage the target and exercise the right of self-defense to counter-attack,” if the foreign drones fail to depart after warnings, Major General Lin Wen-huang said earlier this month.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 22:00

  • Volatility And Valuations
    Volatility And Valuations

    Authored by Nick Colas via DataTrek Research,

    We will start today’s discussion with two numbers: 5.6 percent and 3.4 percent. Those are the 20-year compounded annual growth rates (CAGR) for the S&P 500 from 1999 – 2018 on a nominal and real (after-inflation) basis. If those strike you as pathetically low, you are correct:

    • That 5.6 percent nominal return is barely half the S&P’s long run average 20-year CAGR of 10.8 percent.
    • It is also the worst nominal 20-year CAGR since the period spanning the Great Depression.
    • The 3.4 percent inflation-adjusted 20-year CAGR is the worst since the 1969 – 1988 timeframe, where the 1980s bull market only barely made up for the inflationary 1970s. Long run inflation-adjusted S&P returns are 7.1 percent, more than double that 3.4 percent result.

    Now, one might say that 1999 is an unfair starting point, but the 20-year CAGR data tells much the same story about sub-par or merely average returns across other timeframes:

    • 1997 – 2016: 7.6 percent nominal, 5.5 percent real returns
    • 2002 – 2021: 9.4 percent nominal, 7.1 percent real returns

    The reason for these disappointing results for long-term equity investors comes down to two 5-year periods: 1997 – 2002 and 2007 – 2012. In both cases, the S&P 500 went nowhere for half a decade. Returns from 2003 – 2006 were decent, averaging 15 percent with no drawdown years, but that still was not enough to make up for the stagnant bookends on either side of that time span.

    Interestingly, it was not corporate earnings power than caused these two “lost” half decades:

    • S&P 500 earnings were $44.01 in 1997, when the index closed the year at 970. When the S&P got back to that level in Q2 2003, trailing 4 quarter earnings were $48.95/share. That is a difference of 11 percent.
    • In 2007, the S&P earned $82.54/share and the index finished the year at 1,475. The next time the S&P was at similar levels after the Financial Crisis/Great Recession was in early 2013, when the S&P had earned $98.35/share in the prior 4 quarters. The difference here is 19 percent, but the index was flat from 2007 to 2013.

    We cannot blame Interest rates for this contraction in price-earnings multiples. Ten-year Treasury yields were lower in 2003 than 1997 (3 versus 6 percent) and 2013 relative to 2007 (1-2 percent versus 5 percent). If anything, multiples should have recovered more quickly and been higher in 2003 and 2013 and in 1997 and 2007. And yet, they clearly were not.

    The chart below, which shows the 100-day rolling average of the CBOE VIX Index, offers a reasonable explanation for why US equity valuations contracted over 1997 – 2002 and 2007 – 2012 even with the tailwind of lower interest rates. As highlighted, in both periods the VIX was consistently above its long-run average of 20 for years on end. Yes, the S&P bottomed before the end of each period of volatility (2002 and 2009). The trouble was that valuations remained compressed for far longer than just the 2000 – 2002 and 2008 bear markets. That is why the S&P flatlined for 5 years in each case rather than just 1 – 3 years.

    We have highlighted the current VIX running averages on the rightmost part of the graph, and those broadly resemble prior problematic periods for equity valuations. Happily, volatility has not yet overly damaged S&P price-earnings multiples relative to pre-pandemic levels. The S&P trades for 17.5x current earnings power of $228/share. In 2019, PE ratios ran between 18.5 – 19.5x. A bit of a haircut, true, but consistent with higher interest rates so let’s call it a wash.

    I do, however, worry about long-lasting equity market volatility far more than I worry about recession. Large public companies know how to make money, even during periods of economic stress, as the data presented above shows. The market-weighted nature of the S&P indexing process constantly resets in favor of businesses that accomplish that task better than others. Recession or no, these are fundamentally positive and permanent features and the cornerstone of our view that US large caps are the most productive asset class for long term investors.

    The problem is that volatility grinds away at investor confidence. The longer it lasts, the lower stock valuations go. That is entirely rational, if unwelcomed, but it takes years to regain investors’ trust after a long bout of volatility. That is how you end up with zero stock market returns for 5 years, and subpar returns for periods as long as 2 decades.

    I think Chair Powell and the Federal Reserve understand this problem, albeit from the wider perspective of creating an environment consistent with sustainable economic growth. The Fed needs to get inflation under control quickly and permanently, because until they accomplish that goal capital markets volatility will remain high. That will limit capital formation and investment over the longer term, making the next economic cycle weaker than it would otherwise be.

    Takeaway: while it may be painful in the near-term, long-term US equity investors should be hoping for very aggressive and effective monetary policy over the next 6-12 months and look to add stock exposure to portfolios as that unfolds. 

    That will be the pathway to holding equity valuations at current levels and offers the possibility of better multiples in the next cycle.

    The alternative – another 1-2 years of uncertainty – would threaten structural returns for 5 years or longer. History is clear on that point.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 21:00

  • Alaska Reminds Us Ranked Choice Voting Is A Bad Idea
    Alaska Reminds Us Ranked Choice Voting Is A Bad Idea

    Authored by Todd Carnery via RealClear Wire,

    A few weeks ago, Alaska held a special election using ranked choice voting. This was Alaska’s first general election using ranked choice voting, and it also made the state one of the first major jurisdictions in the United States to employ the new voting system. For years many, election experts have pushed ranked choice as a way to fix the problems in America’s elections. In their view, this new system would create more excitement and give more people a voice by offering marginalized candidates a fighting chance. Over the last few years, three major jurisdictions have held ranked choice voting elections, and they have consistently created issues that could lead to more problems in elections.

    Transferred from en.wikipedia to Commons by Innotata using CommonsHelper. Iqyax at English Wikipedia

    Maine first held an election using ranked choice voting in 2018. That cycle had a competitive congressional race where the Republican incumbent, Bruce Poliquin, initially finished ahead, but over a week later, the Democratic challenger ultimately won the election. The race led to costly litigation and heated rhetoric.

    Two years later, Maine had a competitive senate race and the media did call the election by the morning after. But this speed only came because Republican incumbent Susan Collins won in a landslide with over 50% of the vote, and by close to double digits. If Maine had had a closer race that cycle, it might have taken weeks to get the results and led to the same controversial rhetoric the rest of the nation saw. The only way to avoid a long convoluted count with ranked choice voting is for someone to win by a large margin. So in close elections, ranked choice voting will undermine confidence in the results.

    About seven months after Collins’ victory in Maine, New York City used ranked choice voting for their mayoral primary. This election faced a lot of scrutiny. In the month leading up to the election, experts noted that the race could face major delays in the count. Despite this notice, the election still experienced so many delays that it took over two weeks to declare results. The public and media faced confusion over the election results. Then-mayoral candidate Eric Adams accused two of his opponents of racist actions by trying to strategically ally using ranked choice voting.

    Vox claimed that the issues in counting the ballots did not occur due to ranked choice voting, but instead were the result of problematic policies and personnel in the New York City government. This theory may have some truth as it did take a lot of time in 2020 to count votes in New York City without ranked choice voting.

    But even if Vox’s claim is true, it still further demonstrates why ranked choice voting is a bad idea right now. Many jurisdictions currently have a lot of problems counting votes in a timely manner. The influx of mail-in voting has already complicated things, so adding ranked choice voting to these jurisdictions would put stress on an unsound structure.

    Alaska has faced similar problems. Like New York, Alaska has long had delays in counting votes, especially lately with the large amount of mail-in ballots. But ranked choice voting has still created further confusion and chaos. It took two weeks to count the initial ballots, and then after that, Alaska took another day to sort through ranked choice voting.

    A Democrat ultimately won the seat, but the Republican candidates combined had initially received roughly 59% of the vote. The results have created raucous debate over whether the outcome spells good news for Democrats, despite the fact that the Democrat only initially received about 40% of the vote.

    On top of these issues, ranked choice voting has failed to deliver on its signature promise: increased representation of third parties. Advocates for ranked choice voting have claimed that it would make voters more open to third-party candidates. But nothing has materialized. Before ranked choice voting, Maine came close to electing an independent governor in 2010, and they elected an independent senator in 2012. Yet in 2018 and 2020, the independent candidates for governor and senate had lackluster showings. In Alaska, an independent candidate who previously had a lot of support even dropped out, claiming an independent candidate could not win.

    Federalism allows for America’s states to conduct their votes in different ways. These differences allow the country to see what systems work best. It is clear from seeing ranked choice voting in action in different jurisdictions, that ranked choice voting will make elections worse in the U.S.

    Todd Carney is a lawyer and frequent contributor to RealClearPolitics. He earned his juris doctorate from Harvard Law School.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 20:30

  • The Credit Cycle Is Deteriorating Quickly
    The Credit Cycle Is Deteriorating Quickly

    Via The Variant Perception blog

    The downside growth risks from the bullwhip effect reversal and extreme lows in liquidity indicators favor risk-off positioning.

    We advised clients to sell equities and high yield credit into the rally that started in mid-June and put on hedges. The below is an excerpt from our Aug 9th report to clients.

    US HY spreads look too complacent relative to other market pricing and sharply deteriorating business and credit cycle indicators.

    US HY vs IG relative performance is very divergent with the S&P drawdown (left-hand chart) and spreads are still very low relative to equity and bond market implied volatility.

    US HY spreads are below EM IG corporate spreads again and inflows have surged back to US HY funds.

    The cyclical picture for HY credit is weak. Extreme lows in liquidity LEIs (left-hand chart) and falling corporate cashflows vs capex and buybacks point to sharply rising odds of a spread blowout.

    The latest Fed senior loan officer survey shows banks are tightening loan supply quickly, which generally happens in the run-up to recessions. Banks are also raising credit spreads, which is currently divergent with current HY credit spreads (right-hand chart).

    *  *  *

    Get the full picture at variantperception.com

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 20:00

  • Populism On The Rise In Canada As "Unelectable" Pierre Poilievre Sweeps Conservative Leadership
    Populism On The Rise In Canada As “Unelectable” Pierre Poilievre Sweeps Conservative Leadership

    Authored by Mark Jeftovic via BombThrower.com,

    Poilievre crushes Laurentian Elite Charest in first ballot

    Pierre Poilievre dispensed the naysayers in the Canadian Conservative leadership convention and swept the top job on the first ballot, something that hasn’t happened since Stephen Harper kicked off his political dynasty in 2004.

    The Poilievre movement brought 300,000 new members into the Conservative Party (myself and my wife included), which resulted in 68% of votes. The Laurentian elite anointed (and media approved) candidate was Jean Charest,  who was clubbed like a baby seal, stitching together a mere 16% of the vote. This morning Charest announced his departure from politics.

    The entirety of Charest support originated in the Ottawa and Quebec liberal strongholds. Even downtown Toronto, where the Conservatives are dominated by so-called “Red Tories”, voted overwhelmingly for Poilievre.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The few Charest supporters whose lives are confined almost entirely to a bubble-wrapped echo chamber surrounding downtown Ottawa are now ruminating that Poilievre is “unelectable” and can’t beat Justin Trudeau in an election contest.

    There have even been rumblings of the prospect that Trudeau may, if Poilievre were to win, call a snap election this fall in order to catch the , unelectable populist off-guard. In August, Jean Charest sent a desperate, hyperventilating email to party members begging for their support and fearmongering the prospect of Trudeau trouncing an unprepared Poilievre this fall:

    Firing the Governor of the Bank of Canada and embracing Bitcoin you say? lol. WHERE DO I SIGN UP?

    Any snap election this fall would be the political miscalculation of the century. The map above shows you everything you need to know about what is happening in Canada: a mad-as-hell public, betrayed, and increasingly demonized by  out-of-touch elites from an entitled political class that straddles all parties.

    When the trucker convoy started in February, I said its mishandling would cost all three party leaders their job and it had gutted any remaining credibility of Canadian mainstream media. This thesis is playing out in spades.

    The last time the Canadian public was this disenfranchised and alienated by the incumbent government was when Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservative party was literally destroyed in the 1993 federal election, going from 156 seats to 2. They lost their party status, and that was the end of the PCs (until the aforementioned Harper led a reconstituted Conservative Party – with elements of the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance – to power in 2004).

    The Liberals are headed for a similar fate. Earlier this year Trudeau and the millionaire Marxist Jagmeet Singh merged their parties into a Liberal/Socialist coalition in a deal that would keep them in power until 2025. If the alliance hangs together that long it will remain to be seen whether Trudeau actually sticks around for the election. It’s more likely that he bows out, leaving one of his underlings holding the bag for the inevitable carnage that will see the Liberals utterly eviscerated the next time Canadian voters get a crack at them.

    *  *  *

    Mark E. Jeftovic is the CEO of easyDNS, co-founder of Bombthrower Media, author and investor. Sign up for The Bombthrower mailing list to get updates straight into your inbox and get a free copy of The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto while you’re at it. Follow me on GettrTelegram or if you haven’t been kicked off Twitter yet, there

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 19:30

  • Viral TikTok 'Kia Challenge' Sparks Nationwide Rise In Car Thefts By USB-Wielding Kids
    Viral TikTok ‘Kia Challenge’ Sparks Nationwide Rise In Car Thefts By USB-Wielding Kids

    Thefts of Kia and Hyundai vehicles have surged across the country after a dangerous “challenge” went viral on the Chinese-owned video app TikTok. 

    Viral TikTok videos provide instructions on how to hotwire models of 2010-21 Kia and Hyundai vehicles that use a key, not a push button or key fob. The ability to hotwire these models is apparently so easy that youngsters have turned it into a challenge. 

    Teenage boys, some barely old enough to legally drive (or even see over the steering wheel), are breaking into these cars, removing the steering column and key slot, using a USB cable to turn the ignition, unlock the steering wheel, and start the vehicle in under a minute. 

    Those vehicles are vulnerable to theft because there are no factory-installed anti-theft devices known as immobilizers (RFID transponder embedded in a key that allows the vehicle to recognize the owner’s key). 

    This dangerous TikTok challenge has turned into a game for teenagers:

    “It’s becoming a game even though there is nothing funny about it,” George Glassman, president of the Glassman Automotive Group in Detroit, told FOX 2. 

    Detroit Police Department Lt. Clive Stewart said kids steal the Kia and Hyundai vehicles with their buddies and go on joyrides. 

    Investigators told CNBC the TikTok challenge started last year and has spread nationwide. 

    Police in St. Petersburg, Florida, reported that a third of all cars stolen since mid-July were connected to the viral social media challenge. Los Angeles officials said Hyundai and Kia thefts were up 85% compared with last year. 

    In Chicago, Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart said, “We see no end in sight” to the TikTok-fueled thefts.

    “In our jurisdiction alone, [thefts of certain models are] up over 800% in the last month. 

    “The viral nature of how this has taken off on social media — it’s accelerated this like we’ve never seen … [The perpetrators are] doing it in 20 to 30 seconds. It literally is as old-fashioned as you can imagine, Dart said. 

    He added: “We had an 11-year-old who was one of our most prolific stealers … the notion that they can drive is a fantasy.” 

    CNBC said thieves post videos of stealing the vehicles on the social media platform using the hashtag “Kia Boys”… 

    In Charlotte, North Carolina, there has been a 346% increase in Kia and Hyundai thefts since last year, according to Axios. Thefts in Omaha, Nebraska, for those cars jumped 600% compared to the previous year. 

    In St. Paul, Minnesota, Kia thefts were up 1,300% compared to last year, and Hyundai thefts were up about 600%, according to FOX 9 Minneapolis. 

    There are countless more metro areas and counties across the US reporting several hundred to more than 1000% increase in thefts for Kia and Hyundai vehicles over the last year. 

    A Kia spokesperson told CNBC: 

    “It is unfortunate that criminals are using social media to target vehicles without engine immobilizers in a coordinated effort.”

    News stories across about stolen Kias and Hyundais have erupted over the last year. 

    Also, many of these youngsters play violent video games (such as Grand Theft Auto) for hours per day, making them used to violence and eventually become physiologically numb to it. 

    Social media plus violent video games is a toxic combination for youth — don’t even get us started on psychiatric drugs… 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 19:00

  • Copper Prices Are Trading Sideways, But Not For Long
    Copper Prices Are Trading Sideways, But Not For Long

    By Ag Metal Miner, via OilPrice.com

    The Copper Monthly Metals Index (MMI) moved sideways from August to September as the index rose 1.13%. Copper prices remain steady.

    Copper prices began to slide at the beginning of September. After they caught a temporary bounce in late summer, prices began to break through short-term lows, which indicates potential for further price declines. Markets remain highly volatile amid competing macro economic pressures.

    Energy Crisis Threatens Europe’s Metal Sector

    Although energy-intensive metals like aluminum and zinc production remain most at risk from soaring energy prices in Europe, the gravity of the crisis appears capable of threatening the continent’s entire metal industry.

    According to Guy Thiran, Director General of the European non-ferrous metals trade association Eurometaux, “European metal producers are already preparing for a life-or-death winter.” Thiran went on to say, “any further reduction of European metals production risks being permanent, threatening job losses and knock-on impacts on a complex web of essential and strategic EU value chains – from medical equipment and critical infrastructure to automotive and aerospace.”

    Impact on Copper and Copper Prices

    For copper, the energy crisis presents three primary challenges. High energy prices will immediately translate to increased input costs for European producers. Roland Harings, CEO of Europe’s largest copper producer Aurubis AG, told investors those costs would be eventually passed down to consumers.

    For this year, Aurubis hedged roughly two-thirds of its electricity costs. However, Europe’s crisis will likely not be resolved in the near term, which would mean prices could see sharp increases by next year. While copper ingot prices have declined since late August, European-sourced products will likely begin to carry a premium over their global counterparts. Over time, this could lead to a deterioration of Europe’s role within the global supply chain.

    Secondly, consumer price pressures will continue to weigh on demand and copper prices. For the second consecutive month, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory in August with a score of 49.6. This represents the lowest reading since June 2020 and was dragged downward by a sharp contraction of new orders.

    Some European businesses have already noted a three-fold increase in energy bills just this year. According to Goldman Sachs, average monthly household energy bills in Europe could rise from 160 euros in 2021 to 600 euros in 2023. Increasingly less affordable energy prices ahead of and into the winter months will likely lead the continent into a recession. Continued demand declines will have a downward effect on prices. 

    Europe Feels the Energy Crisis Strain

    Lastly, as has already occurred with numerous aluminum, zinc and steel producers, shutdowns remain a possibility. Harings noted this as a worst-case scenario outcome in his comments to investors and suggested any such shutdowns would be “very controlled.” Aurubis continues to lobby politicians and regulators for capped energy prices, which could insulate the industrial sector from the current crisis. How the sector fares as a whole will largely depend on whether or not European countries adopt a protectionist approach to such industries as it manages limited energy supplies.

    Chile Rejects New Constitution

    In a historic Sept. 4 referendum, Chilean voters overwhelmingly rejected the new constitution. A resounding 62% of voters and all 16 regions of Chile voted to reject the document. How will this effect copper prices?

    A vote to approve the new constitution would have likely added support to prices amid the current market uncertainty. Most bull narratives for copper are underpinned by waning supply against growing demand. This is largely due to the green energy movement. While annual copper output within Chile remains within a downtrend since 2018, the new constitution would have increased mining restrictions and impeded foreign mine investment. Chile accounts for roughly 28% of global copper output, which makes it the largest copper producer in the world. 

    The rejection means the market dynamics will remain unchanged within Chile. In a broader sense, it could also indicate collapsing momentum of the leftward swing within Chilean politics. President Gabriel Boric vowed to work with Congress for a “new constitutional process.” With such a resounding defeat, however, this will likely mean any future drafts will be far less progressive.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 18:30

  • Ukraine's 2nd Largest City Plunged Into Total Darkness As Russia Strikes Key Infrastructure
    Ukraine’s 2nd Largest City Plunged Into Total Darkness As Russia Strikes Key Infrastructure

    Kharkiv, which is Ukraine’s second largest city and is the biggest population center closest to Russia’s border, has been plunged into total darkness Sunday night amid alleged Russian attacks on key infrastructure sites, including large power stations.

    “The center of Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv was plunged into darkness on Sunday evening by an electricity blackout,” Reuters has confirmed of the large-scale outage. It’s further being reported that some city districts are also without water, creating a severe crisis for residents.

    “The cause and extent of the blackout in the northeastern city were not immediately clear. There were also unconfirmed social media reports of blackouts in other places and regions,” the report said initially.

    However, Ukrainian officials are pointing to stepped up and deliberate Russian attacks on civilian electrical facilities crucial to the city’s operations. They are viewing it as punishment for the at this point largely successful Ukrainian military counteroffensive which has regained at least 40 towns and villages to the north and east of Kharkiv.

    President Volodymyr Zelensky posted a brief statement to social media along with footage of destroyed infrastructure, denouncing “Deliberate and cynical missile strikes on civilian, critical infrastructure.” He stressed they were not “military facilities” that were attacked. “Kharkiv and Donetsk regions were cut off. In Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy there are partial problems with power supply.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The governor of the eastern Kharkiv region said that both electricity and water supplies had been disrupted Sunday, citing ongoing Russian attacks on “critical infrastructure” had disrupted electricity and water.

    Additionally, a top Ukraine offical of the Dnipropetrovsk region blamed the Russian military for hitting  “energy infrastructure” – calling it retaliation for “defeat on the battlefield.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Global network monitoring site NetBlocks also confirmed a mass disruption in internet access across Kharkiv oblast, citing a “Russian strike on TEC-5 thermal power plant” amid pro-Moscow forces being pushed back.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 18:00

  • Sweden's Conservative Right Opposition Bloc Takes Lead In General Election
    Sweden’s Conservative Right Opposition Bloc Takes Lead In General Election

    Update (1800ET): With 80% of the vote counted in Sweden’s general election, the right-wing opposition bloc has taken the lead

    Moderate party leader Ulf Kristersson’s conservative bloc, which includes the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats, moved ahead of current Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats by a narrow margin on Sunday night. The far-right ‘Sweden Democrats’ took 20.7% of the vote (better than pre-election polls) – making it the second largest party in Sweden now…

    The results cement the ascent of Akesson’s party, which was previously shunned as extremists by all established parties.

    As we noted earlier, the bottom line is that for the first time in Swedish history, a far-right populist party appears to have secured serious clout over key policy areas including immigration and policing.

    *  *  *

    Sweden will hold general elections tomorrow, September 11, 2022.

    At the same time, the country is rocked by a wave of violent crime that is unprecedented in modern Scandinavian history.

    Sweden has in just two generations gone from being one of the safest countries in the world to being one of the most dangerous countries in Europe. During the same time, mass immigration has dramatically altered Sweden’s population. 1.2 million of those eligible to vote in the elections in September 2022 were born outside Sweden — about 200,000 more foreigners than in the previous election, in 2018. Nearly one in four first-time voters aged 18-21 was either born abroad or has two parents born abroad. In central Malmö, almost every second person eligible to vote for the first time has a foreign background.

    Muslim immigrants in Sweden, as in other European countries, tend overwhelmingly to vote for the Social Democrats or other socialist or left-wing parties. However, they have now become so numerous and self-confident that they also create their own political parties. Mikail Yüksel, a Turkish-born Muslim, heads Partiet Nyans, which has a following in cities such as Malmö.

    However, the last few weeks has seen the far-right, anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats (SD) party Continues to build on its lead over the main right-wing opposition party in the polls ahead of tomorrow’s parliamentary elections , becoming Sweden’s second largest party general elections in September, Politico reported.

    One recent opinion poll showed support for SD is surging, with around 22 percent saying they would vote for the party, giving it the second largest backing after the ruling Social Democrats on 28 percent. POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, which aggregates polling, has the SD on 20 percent and the Social Democrats on 29 percent.

    While similar parties have recently held sway in nearby Finland, Denmark and Estonia, in Sweden SD has been ostracized by mainstream rivals for decades because of its roots among neo-Nazi groups active in the country in the 1990s.

    As Politico notes, the emergence of SD as a key player in Swedish policymaking would still be a radical shock to the Nordic state’s political system, which for the past century has been based largely on consensus building.

    While Sweden’s immigration policies have long been liberal, SD’s platform would aim for zero asylum seekers. Sweden’s criminal justice system has traditionally focused on rehabilitation rather than punishment but SD is calling for longer prison sentences and wider use of deportation.

    “Deport foreign criminals … and no discussion,” says one of SD’s new election posters.

    “It is time for the Swedish people to give us a chance,” Sweden Democrats (SD) leader Jimmie Åkesson told a crowd of several hundred on a recent weekday evening.

    “It’s time to give us a chance to make Sweden great again.”

    Åkesson claimed the Social Democrat government had let the welfare state fall apart and said his party was growing because it dared to call out such failings and “call a spade a spade.”

    “Sweden has been a great country, a safe country, a successful country and it can be all these things again,” he said.

    The bottom line is that for the first time in Swedish history, a far-right populist party has a realistic shot at securing serious clout over key policy areas including immigration and policing.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 17:40

  • Former Virginia Election Official Hit With Felony Charges Linked to 2020 Election
    Former Virginia Election Official Hit With Felony Charges Linked to 2020 Election

    Authored by Zachary Steiber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A former Virginia election official faces three charges related to the 2020 election, including corrupt conduct, according to charging documents filed this week.

    Voters cast ballots in Manassas, Va., in a file image. (Karen Bleier/AFP via Getty Images)

    Michele White, who resigned as registrar for Prince William County in 2021, was indicted on Sept. 6 for three felonies, according to documents reviewed by The Epoch Times.

    White engaged in corrupt conduct between Aug. 1 and Dec. 31, 2020, a grand jury charged. That time period encompassed the 2020 presidential election.

    White is also accused of making a false statement regarding the election and neglecting her duty as an election officer.

    White faces up to 21 years in prison if convicted on all three charges.

    White abruptly resigned weeks ahead of the June 2021 primary election, the Prince William Times reported. At the time, the secretary for the Prince William County Electoral Board told the paper that the resignation didn’t relate to White’s handling of recent elections, while White declined to comment on why she resigned.

    White couldn’t be reached for comment. The secretary didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    Pamela Walker, vice chair of the board, declined to comment. “It’s before my appointment to the Board,” she told The Epoch Times in an email.

    London Steverson, chair of the board, also noted that the events occurred before he was sworn in.

    “I only pray that Justice will prevail,” he told The Epoch Times via email.

    Conduct Allegedly Did Not Impact Outcome

    White’s conduct didn’t influence the 2020 election results, according to the Prince William County Office of Elections.

    Her conduct did not impact the outcome of any election contest,” the office told The Epoch Times in an email.

    Eric Olson, who replaced White, gave information to authorities that led to the charges, according to the office.

    “In 2022, the Electoral Board and new Director of Elections have built an entirely new leadership team that is dedicated to fair and accurate elections. Many improvements and best practices have been adopted to ensure a safe and transparent voting experience for the voters of Prince William County. It was the new Director of Elections that reported these discrepancies to the Commissioner of Elections and State Board of Elections earlier this year that led to this investigation by the Attorney General of Virginia,” the office said.

    The Office of Elections has no further comment at this time as this is pending litigation and our office will preserve the office’s records for public review when the matter has concluded.”

    Approximately 62 percent of the votes cast in Prince William County for president went for Joe Biden, according to the results the county reported. Donald Trump received 35 percent of the vote, with the rest going for Jo Jorgensen or write-in candidates.

    Before White served as the Prince William County registrar, she worked in the same position for Culpeper County.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 17:30

  • Average US Credit Card Rate Hits Highest On Record
    Average US Credit Card Rate Hits Highest On Record

    While the Fed’s rate hiking cycle is about to push the overnight Fed Funds Rate to 2.50% in two weeks, banks have so far completely refused to translate these sharply higher wholesale rates into benefits for US savers. In fact, as the following breakdown of consumer deposit rates at the largest US bank, one would think that the US is still stuck at ZIRP.

    But while big money center banks refuse to even consider lifting the rate on their savings accounts, they have no such qualms when it comes to how much they charge on credit cards, and according to Bankrate.com’s latest survey, the average credit card rate is now 18.03%, the highest on record since January 1996.

    According to Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate, “the average credit card rate is now a record-high 18.03%, surpassing the previous record of 17.87% which was set in April 2019. And Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that the Fed is not done raising rates – not by a long shot. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there’s a strong likelihood the Fed will implement another 75-basis point hike later this month, with smaller increases projected for November and December. The best guess, according to investors, is that rates will rise another 150 basis points by the end of the year.”


     
    “Almost all credit cards have variable rates which track the Prime Rate, which is typically three percentage points higher than the federal funds rate which is set by the Federal Reserve. So there’s a direct pass-through from the Fed’s actions to credit cardholders. Card issuers tack a profit margin onto the Prime Rate, often something like 12% or 13%. Rate hikes generally affect new and existing balances, so most credit cardholders are currently facing rates that are 225 basis points higher than they were just six months ago. During the last rate hike cycle, it took the Fed three years to raise rates 225 basis points (from December 2015 to December 2018). This time, it only took them 4 ½ months from mid-March to late July. And there’s more to come.”

    “There’s a significant cumulative effect to these rate hikes. Let’s say you started the year with a $5,000 balance on a credit card charging 16%. Minimum payments would have kept you in debt for 184 months and racked up $5,406 in interest charges. That would have been bad enough, but at 18.25%, those minimum payments will now drag on for 189 months and accumulate $6,241 in interest. That’s an increase of $835. Of course, the best practice is to pay way more than the minimum – pay it all if you can. If that’s not possible, forget about chasing rewards and seek the lowest interest rate possible. There are 0% balance transfer offers (https://www.bankrate.com/finance/credit-cards/balance-transfer/) that last as long as 21 months.”

    We get more details on these record rates courtesy of creditcards.com, according to which the average APR is even higher, at 18.17%, and writes that more than a month after the Federal Reserve announced its latest three-quarter-point rate hike, several more lenders adjusted the APRs they advertise on brand-new cards, including Discover, USAA and Navy Federal Credit Union.

    Until this week, Discover was among the last major lenders to match the Fed’s most recent rate hike. Bank of America, Chase, Citi, American Express, Wells Fargo, Barclaycard and U.S. Bank have also recently hiked the APRs they advertise by 0.75 percent. So have most smaller lenders, such as Fifth Third Bank, PNC, Union Bank, HSBC and KeyBank, among others.

    As a result, the national average card APR has broken record after record this summer, ultimately soaring to its highest point ever in recent weeks. Until this summer, the highest APR average CreditCards.com had ever recorded was 17.8 percent — a difference of 0.37 percentage points.

    Now, APRs are set to soar again as the Federal Reserve gears up for another big rate announcement and other lenders continue to catch up to previous federal rate hikes. So far, the Federal Reserve has increased rates by a historic 2.25 percentage points since March and is expected to hike rates again later this month.

    And with more lenders still due for another rate hike, the average card APR is poised to soar

    Already at a record high, the national average card APR won’t hold still for long. The average APR for brand-new cards is already well-above previous record highs, with the average minimum card APR climbing well above 18 percent. A year ago, by contrast, the national average credit card APR registered at just 16.22 percent.

    Meanwhile, the average maximum APR on a brand-new card offer has also climbed sharply in recent months, increasing most recently to 25.59 percent, according to CreditCards.com data. As a result, many new cardholders are currently being assigned APRs well above 20 percent.

    CreditCards.com only considers a card’s lowest possible interest rate when calculating the national average. However, most credit card offers advertise a wide range of possible APRs — particularly on general market and rewards cards that appeal to a broad audience. Although some applicants with the very highest credit scores may be assigned a card’s lowest rate, many others are instead assigned either a card’s maximum possible interest rate or an APR that falls directly in the middle of the two extremes.

    Currently, the average median card APR is 21.88 percent, according to CreditCards.com data.

    But cardholders hoping for a reprieve from such high rates are unlikely to get one anytime soon. The Fed has made it clear that it plans to continue hiking rates for the foreseeable future until prices cool off more substantially.

    As a result, it is likely that the average real APR will hit a mindblowing 20% by the time the Fed finally pushes the economy into recession.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 17:00

  • The 'Never Let A Crisis Go To Waste' Crowd Strikes Again
    The ‘Never Let A Crisis Go To Waste’ Crowd Strikes Again

    Authored by By Matt Weidinger & Tim Sprunt via RealClear Wire (emphasis ours),

    Rahm Emanuel, then chief of staff to President-elect Barack Obama, famously issued what has come to be known as Rahm’s rule: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that [is] it’s an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.

    youtube.com/watch?v=52gVNZY-r1U&feature=youtu.be White House

    Emanuel argued that the 2008 financial crisis afforded the new Obama-Biden administration the opportunity to “do things” they couldn’t otherwise. Trillions of dollars in higher spending later, President Biden recently dusted off Rahm’s Rule for yet another purpose — justifying his administration’s college debt cancellation plan.

    The plan is controversial. Experts estimate it will cost taxpayers between $500 billion and $1 trillion over the coming decade, all added to the federal debt. The Wall Street Journal suggests “there has never been an executive action of this costly magnitude in peacetime….Nothing comes close to this half-trillion-dollar or more executive coup.” Vulnerable Democratic candidates are rejecting the proposal, and economists Larry Summers and Jason Furman warn of serious inflationary effects from cancelling loans for 43 million Americans. 

    For President Biden, the plan also marks an abrupt about face on presidential authority. In April 2020, just after Congress enacted the mammoth CARES Act, then-candidate Biden said “the next recovery package” should include “an immediate cancellation of a minimum of $10,000 of student debt per person.” At the height of the pandemic, Biden thought it was Congress’ job — and not the President’s — to legislate debt cancellation. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) was even more explicit in July 2021, stating that “People think that the President of the United States has the power for debt forgiveness. He does not. He can postpone. He can delay. But he does not have that power. That has to be an act of Congress.”

    The Biden administration repudiated that position, while pointing to the waning pandemic as the crisis that permits them to act without Congress. The Washington Post notes that the unemployment rate for college graduates is now just two percent so “it’s hard to make the case that college graduates are still facing an unprecedented crisis.” Nonetheless, the administration argues their action is consistent with a 2003 statute behind the current college loan payment pause. As Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona put it, “this is targeted relief based off of [the] pandemic.” The Trump Department of Education took the opposite view, and the courts may ultimately decide the fate of the Biden policy.

    The bigger picture suggests that the pandemic is an all-too-convenient excuse. How do we know?

    Because prominent Democratic lawmakers proposed college debt cancellation well before its onset in early 2020. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), while campaigning for president in June 2019, called for the cancellation of up to $50,000 of debt for 95 percent of borrowers. Fellow presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) went a step further, proposing that same month to cancel all Americans’ college debt. Then-candidate Joe Biden was late to the debt cancellation party, but his eventual running mate Kamala Harris in July 2019 proposed “to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt for borrowers who received Pell grants,” as the Biden-Harris administration has just done.

    This is only the latest example of the administration applying Rahm’s Rule during the pandemic. The expanded child tax credit paid to 65 million children under the March 2021 American Rescue Plan is another. That policy had nothing to do with the pandemic, as evidenced by the administration’s subsequent calls to make the expanded benefit permanent. Yet new monthly federal checks paid even to non-working parents during the second half of 2021 effectively revived work-free federal welfare, long a liberal goal. Those expanded monthly checks have since expired — perhaps until the next crisis strikes.

    If implemented, the administration’s college debt cancellation plan is similarly unlikely to be the end. In fact, it might even be an accelerant for more debt. Why would parents save for college and pay out of pocket when they could take out loans in anticipation of a future taxpayer bailout? And what liberal politician won’t promise to relieve those and other debts for key constituencies — especially in an election year? It would be foolish to expect otherwise if the costs can again be passed on to federal taxpayers. That will be especially likely when future crises strike, and another generation of politicians dusts off Rahm’s Rule.

    Matt Weidinger is a Rowe Fellow in poverty studies at the American Enterprise Institute. Tim Sprunt is a research assistant at the American Enterprise Institute.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 16:30

  • Ukraine Retakes Towns Within 50km Of Russian Border Amid Rumors Putin To Issue Full Declaration Of War
    Ukraine Retakes Towns Within 50km Of Russian Border Amid Rumors Putin To Issue Full Declaration Of War

    The Ukrainian government is touting a weekend advance in the county’s east at an “astonishing” rate as the major counteroffensive announced by Kiev over a week ago continues. Western news headlines are also widely echoing the new optimism after months of the steady Russian takeover of the east, which lately drifted into a stalemate along the front lines.

    “Ukrainian troops are advancing in eastern Ukraine, liberating more cities and villages. Their courage coupled with Western military support brings astonishing results,” Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleh Nikolenko announced. He urged the West to help keep the momentum against Russian front lines, adding in the statement: “It’s crucial to keep sending arms to Ukraine. Defeating Russia on the battlefield means winning peace in Ukraine.”

    AFP/Getty Images: Ukrainian flags on statues in a square in Balakliya, the Kharkiv region of Ukraine, on Sept. 10, 2022.

    On Saturday the Russian military issued a rare acknowledgement of a “regrouping” of its forces in Kharkiv Oblast. Kiev and its Western backers are taking the statement as an admission of retreat: “To achieve the goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbas, a decision was made to regroup Russian troops stationed in the Balakliya and Izyum regions, to bolster efforts along the Donetsk front,” the defense ministry explained.

    Ukraine’s deputy head of the Kharkiv region military administration, Roman Semenukha, has since announced on a public TV broadcast the liberation of at least 40 towns and villages: “We can officially announce the liberation of more than 40 settlements. The situation is changing incredibly quickly and there are many, many more such [de-occupied] settlements,” he said.

    “The situation is dynamically positive. And indeed the situation is changing,” he said, noting these 40 settlements were places where Ukrainian forces now have total control of the situation. In the comments he denied that it was simply a matter of Russian forces strategically withdrawing from these front lines to deploy elsewhere, but that—

    “There are fierce, fierce battles in many areas of the front and everything is very, very difficult. If we are talking about the military component, then you just have to be patient.”

    In some cases towns which have been held by the Russian army for multiple months running appear to have been penetrated by the Ukrainian counteroffensive, such as Kupiansk in east Ukraine, which served as a strategic supply hub for Russian forces.

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    Ukrainian forces have also entered the key city of Izium. A number of social media videos have emerged showing Ukrainian soldiers posing with captured Russian weapons and tanks.

    According to The Moscow Times, pro-Russian Donetsk officials have acknowledged the intensified fighting is putting pro-Kremlin forces under strain in the east:

    Ukraine’s push appears to have caught Russian troops largely off guard. Moscow made the surprise announcement Friday it was dispatching reinforcements to Kharkiv, with images on state media showing tanks and artillery and support vehicles moving in columns on dirt roads.

    Denis Pushilin, a pro-Russia separatist official, said Saturday that the situation in the town of Lyman in the Donetsk region was “very difficult” and that there was also fighting in “a number of other localities,” particularly in the northern part of the region.

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    Ukraine’s chief commander of the armed forces General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said on Sunday that his army has pushed Russian forces away from the north of Kharkiv to within 50km of the border with Russia for the first time since the invasion began more than six months ago.

    Ukrainian flags have been seen and widely reported as being raised in villages close to the Russian border, including the town of Kozacha Lopan.

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    Currently there are media rumors saying Moscow is preparing to issue a formal declaration of war, as opposed to a current limited “special operation” – which would mean greater mobilization across armed forces branches and society. The pressure within Moscow political circles on Putin to do so will continue to grow amid Ukrainian forces’ positive momentum, as as the US and NATO continue ratcheting up the already steadily flowing weapons systems.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 16:00

  • Hedge Fund CIO: "Illiquidity Is The New Leverage And Flows Are More Important Than Fundamentals"
    Hedge Fund CIO: “Illiquidity Is The New Leverage And Flows Are More Important Than Fundamentals”

    By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    La Haine

    “Illiquidity is the new leverage and flows are more important than fundamentals,” said the CIO, one of our industry’s great thinkers. “This has been our framework for considering vulnerabilities in the post-2008 world,” he said. “Following the GFC, an intended consequence of successive rounds of quantitative easing was a shift of systemic risk from banks to the asset management industry,” he explained, the Fed’s $9trln balance sheet now bloated beyond comprehension, quantitative tightening accelerating, rates rising at an unprecedented pace.

    “Asset managers do not have flexible balance sheets — they buy assets when they get inflows and sell assets when they have outflows,” continued the CIO, sitting high atop a prodigious pile, amassed through decades of navigating monetary mischief, financial crises, bull markets, bears. “For over a decade, QE expanded balance sheets and asset managers have only experienced inflows. In contrast, banks – if they have sufficient capital – can take on risk when others are selling assets. They can choose to flex their balance sheets.”

    “This shift of fragility from leverage in banks to liquidity in asset managers has occurred in tandem with a move to higher allocations to risky assets because of very low, or negative, interest rates,” continued the CIO. “Now, central banks are fighting an inflation problem they underestimated. They are forced to sharply tighten monetary policy and need to tighten financial conditions in the form of falling asset prices. The key is that the process be orderly, which it has been thus far. No dislocation yet. So far, so good.”

    “The first half of 2022 was a discount rate shock,” he said. “From here, as short rates march higher, investors will allocate away from risky and into risk-free assets.” Outflows expose the liquidity mismatch between the liquidity terms offered to the investor and the actual liquidity of the underlying investments. “The authorities and markets implicitly assume liquidity is plentiful and market behavior will remain orderly. We have been questioning that assumption and examining what might cause a disorderly liquidation?”

    “I think we see the answer,” said the CIO in response to his own question. “The liquidity available to financial markets is being pincered between the forces of:

    1. the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP) facility, its interaction with central bank reserves and the level of interest rates,
    2. the inflating nominal economy’s need for more of the commercial banks’ aggregate balance sheet, and
    3. the reticence of commercial banks to expand their balance sheets because of regulatory pressure on them to be crisis proof in the face of an oncoming hurricane.”

    “And these liquidity pressures are weaponized by poor trailing 6-month portfolio performance and rising real rates, creating a genuine threat that we may be on the brink of The Great Liquidation,” explained the CIO.

    “La Haine is a French film,” he said, translating a passage for his unsophisticated American friend. “In it, a man falls from a 50-story building. The chap, as he falls, repeats something to himself constantly for reassurance: ‘So far so good… So far so good… So far so good.’ But the important thing is not the fall. It’s the landing.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 09/11/2022 – 15:30

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Today’s News 11th September 2022

  • Jan. 6 Prisoners And Families Expose Brutal Truth About Jail Lockdown
    Jan. 6 Prisoners And Families Expose Brutal Truth About Jail Lockdown

    Authored by Patricia Tolson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    It began without warning. A Jan. 6 prisoner had emerged from his cell without a mask. When it was all over, the jail was in lockdown and several inmates had been pepper sprayed, handcuffed, and thrown into solitary confinement. Inmate tablets were quickly confiscated, but not before several prisoners had time to send text messages, exposing the brutal truth of what happened. Many of those messages were obtained by The Epoch Times. In exclusive interviews with The Epoch Times, the family members of several Jan. 6 prisoners share their stories.

    The Correctional Treatment Facility stands on 10.2 acres next to the Central Detention Facility off 19th and D Streets, SE, in Washington, DC. (Department of Corrections website)

    The identities of those in the inmate text exchanges obtained by The Epoch Times have been redacted for fear they will suffer further retaliation.

    ‘[Expletive] Just Went Down’

    According to the text message sent by one Jan. 6 prisoner to a family member, “[Expletive] just went down” at the Correctional Treatment Facility in Washington, D.C., around 9:46 a.m. on Sept. 5. One of the guards had just “assaulted McAbee because he wasn’t wearing a mask.”

    The prisoner’s name is Ronald Colton McAbee. His wife, Sarah, described to The Epoch Times what happened.

    McAbee had just been let out of his cell by a pod officer in order to receive his medications. Inmates, Sarah explained, have to take their meds in front of the nurse to prove they swallowed the pills. The med cart was about 25 feet from the door of McAbee’s cell. When he walked out of the cell to go get his meds, he was not wearing his mask. Lieutenant Crystal Lancaster began yelling at him and ordering him to put his mask on. He said he was going to get his medication and didn’t need his mask. It was after McAbee had taken his medication it is alleged that Lancaster doused his face with OC spray.

    While pepper spray and OC spray are essentially comprised of the same ingredients, the higher concentration of Oleoresin Capsicum (OC) is what sets them far apart. A March 1994 report (pdf) issued by the United States Department of Justice acknowledged the more potent and potentially lethal properties of OC Spray when used outside of recommended guidelines or on someone with pre-existing respiratory conditions, such as asthma.

    With McAbee on the ground in pain, Lancaster ordered the pod officer to handcuff him. As McAbee was being handcuffed, Lancaster sprayed him again, point blank, in the face.

    Sarah’s account is validated by the texts sent by other Jan. 6 prisoners to their family members.

    Screenshot of assembled text messages sent out by three January 6 prisoners as events unfolded at the jail in Washington D.C. during an alleged assault, initiated by Lieutenant Crystal Lancaster. (Obtained by The Epoch Times)

    By now, Sarah said other Jan. 6 prisoners had emerged from their cells. Three of them, Ron Sandlin, Bart Shively, and Ryan Nichols, began yelling at Lancaster, telling her to stop her assault on McAbee. Sandlin was then handcuffed. He and McAbee were taken away to solitary confinement. Shively and Nichols were also sprayed, cuffed, and placed in isolation pods. According to Sarah, there are no cameras in the isolation pod area.

    “It’s very concerning because the guards can come in and do whatever they like to these people with no accountability,” she said.

    Messages sent by two more Jan. 6 prisoner provides corroboration and more detail.

    Screenshot of assembled text messages sent out by three January 6 prisoners as events unfolded at the jail in Washington D.C. during an alleged assault, initiated by Lieutenant Crystal Lancaster. (Obtained by The Epoch Times)

    A History of Abuse and Sub-Human Conditions

    Sarah then recalled that the facility has a long history of sub-human conditions. She also noted that Lancaster, notorious among Jan. 6 prisoners and their family members for being particularly vulgar and brutal, had been banned from the Jan. 6 pod for verbal abuse and for stealing the inmates’ mail.

    I don’t know if that ban was lifted or why she was in that pod,” she said.

    Her account was again validated independently by the messages from other Jan. 6 prisoners.

    Screenshot of text message sent out by a January 6 prisoner at the jail in Washington D.C. during an alleged assault by Lieutenant Crystal Lancaster. (Obtained by The Epoch Times)

    Screenshot of text message sent out by a January 6 prisoner at the jail in Washington D.C. during an alleged assault by Lieutenant Crystal Lancaster. (Obtained by The Epoch Times)

    Screenshot of text message sent out by a January 6 prisoner at the jail in Washington D.C. during an alleged assault by Lieutenant Crystal Lancaster. (Obtained by The Epoch Times)

    According to Nicole Reffitt, the targeted abuse of Jan. 6 prisoners is nothing new at the “D.C. Gulag.” Her husband, Guy Reffitt, has suffered there for nearly 20 months. Guy, Nicole explained, was the first Jan. 6 defendant to go to trial and the first one they tried to charge with the domestic terrorism enhancement.

    “Luckily, the judge did not grant that,” Nicole told The Epoch Times, adding that her husband never entered the Capitol building, touched anyone, or damaged anything. “He was still sentenced to seven and a half years,” she lamented. “We’re still trying to wrap our brains around that.

    I have been unable to talk to my husband,” Nicole said further, adding that the tablets the prisoners use to communicate with their family members were suddenly confiscated. “He has not been able to send me a message. The last message he sent me was that they were being assaulted and officers had taken off their body cams.”

    A text message from a prisoner’s family member confirmed that the inmates’ tablets had been confiscated.

    Screenshot of text message sent out by the family member of a January 6 prisoner at the jail in Washington D.C. following an alleged assault on a prisoner by Lieutenant Lancaster confirming that the inmates’ tablets had been confiscated. (Obtained by The Epoch Times)

    She also revealed that the prisoners’ electronic grievance system has been turned off and they have not been able to file grievances with the jail for over a month. This means none of the incidents of abuse are being documented, and no one is being held accountable. Even the paper grievances filed by prisoners are “torn up in front of their faces.”

    The history of abuse was validated by the message of another Jan. 6 prisoner.

    Screenshot of text message sent out by a January 6 prisoner at the jail in Washington D.C. during an alleged assault by Lieutenant Lancaster. (Obtained by The Epoch Times)

    In the meantime, Sarah said her husband was in his cell drenched in OC spray for over 12 hours before he was taken to medical and “thrown into a hot shower.” Afterward, guards made him put the same OC spray-soaked clothing back on before putting him back in his cell. Four hours later it began to reactivate on his skin and in his eyes. He begged to be allowed to shower with soap and water. He was told to “suck it up.” It wasn’t until around midnight that he was allowed to shower with soap and water and put on clean clothes.

    Mistaken Identity or Intentional Retaliation?

    Despite repeated pleas to U.S. senators, representatives, the Bureau of Prisoners, and U.S. marshals, Bonnie Nichols says nothing has changed. As reported by The Epoch Times in July, her husband Ryan faces 11 charges, including multiple infractions with the words “Deadly or Dangerous Weapon” attached. The “Deadly or Dangerous Weapon” was pepper spray.

    In the early morning hours of Sept. 7, Bonnie received heartbreaking series of text messages from Ryan describing both his physical and mental state after he was assaulted by Lancaster and thrown into solitary confinement. He believes he was attacked by Lancaster in a case of mistaken identity.

    A series of text messages sent from Ryan Nichols to his wife Bonnie on Sept. 7, 2022, after he was assaulted by Lieutenant Crystal Lancaster and thrown into solitary confinement. (Courtesy of Bonnie Nichols)

    However, Bonnie is convinced the assault on her husband was a matter of intentional retaliation for the lawsuit that was filed Aug. 10 “that named her specifically.”

    According to the Petition for Writ of Habeas Corpus Under 28 U.S.C. 2241 and Complaint for Declaratory and Injunctive Relief (pdf), Lancaster—the guard in charge of the solitary confinement area known as “The Hole”—”verbally and mentally abuses inmates.”

    “She also oversees officers and guards who do the same, and is suspected of bringing drugs into the prison,” the complaint states further. “The presence of drugs in the prison was confirmed by both the U.S. Marshals’ report and the testimony of the DC City Council Chair on the Judiciary and Public Safety.”

    According to reports, one correctional officer was already arrested at the D.C. facility in February for allegedly accepting bribes to bring drugs, knives, and cell phones to inmates. There have also been multiple drug overdoses and two drug-related deaths “that further corroborate the presence of drugs in the DC Jail.”

    Bonnie also noted that Lancaster had been banned from the Jan. 6 pod “for weeks.” She would taunt the inmates, calling them names like “white cracker [expletive]” and telling them she’s going to “[expletive] your daddy and give you a little sister.”

    The last time Ryan was thrown in solitary was apparently in retaliation for a grievance he had filed. Because he suffers from PTSD, due to the traumas suffered during his military service, Ryan was placed on suicide watch However, he was not allowed to see a nurse or to receive mental health counseling. They simply put him in a straight jacket and “strapped him to a bench.”

    Now Ryan is again in solitary. The pod is still on lockdown. Because he was not allowed to shower for 48 hours after the assault, he has chemical burns all over his body from the OC spray. The Emergency Response Team told him to “stop being a [expletive].”

    Bonnie Nichols stands with her husband Ryan’s father Don outside of the White House in Washington, D.C. in August 2022. (Courtesy of Bonnie Nichols)

    I’m angry at this point, over what’s continuing to happen,” Bonnie told The Epoch Times. “It’s like this jail is untouchable. It’s aggravating that these men are still in the same situation after two years.”

    Aside from the abuse and abhorrent conditions, Bonnie said her husband’s “discovery was taken from him.”

    All of the work he’s been doing on his case, all of the motions, everything he has been working on for his case for the past 19 months was on a thumb drive that has now gone missing from his cell for the second time. The guards claim to know nothing–again.

    ‘There Will Be Hell to Pay’

    Don Nichols, Ryan’s father, was with Bonnie when she spoke with The Epoch Times.

    Don had been on the phone all morning. He contacted the Director of the Federal Bureau of Prisons, the United States Marshals Service. He has been advised that “the best bet is to get a hold of your Senators and Congressman.”

    “[Rep.] Loui Gohmert has already done everything he can do,” Don told The Epoch Times, praising the Texas Republican congressman for his dedication to the plight of Jan. 6 prisoners. Bonnie said Gohmert “has been doing more than anyone else has.”

    Don wants to know why so many Jan. 6 prisoners have been charged with using a “dangerous or deadly weapon” called pepper spray but guards can douse “pre-trial detainees who have not been convicted of any crime, multiple times, before they’re shackled and after they’re shackled” and suffer no consequences.

    I ask one simple question,” Don charged angrily. “Can I file criminal charges against Lieutenant Lancaster on behalf of my son? That’s the question I want someone who’s in charge of this system to answer. Because I’m willing to fly to Washington D.C. on whatever day saying I am ready to file charges against each and every person who perpetrated this crime against these men.”

    For Bonnie, her concern is, “How much can a human being take until it’s too much?” She recalled how several Jan. 6 defendants who weren’t even incarcerated had already committed suicide. Christopher Stanton Georgia, 53, of Fulton County, Georgia, died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound just days after the Capitol breach. At 5:30 in the evening on Friday, Feb. 25, just weeks before his sentencing, 37-year-old Matthew Perna went into his garage and hung himself. On July 20, 47-year-old Mark Roderick Aungst of South Williamsport, Pennsylvania, became the third Jan. 6 defendant to kill himself.

    “I am telling you,” Bonnie vowed, her voice breaking. “If my husband takes his life over this, there will be hell to pay.”

    The President Made Hate a ‘Patriotic Duty’

    According to Joseph McBride, the attorney representing Nichols and several other Jan. 6 prisoners and defendants, the prison guards are retaliating against Nichols because of the habeas petition filed against Lancaster.

    There is no other explanation,” McBride told The Epoch Times. “Our plan is to argue for his release today.

    According to a motion (pdf) filed on the morning of Sept. 8 in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, McBride petitioned “the Court to dismiss all charges against” Ryan Nichols “for the reason that the government, in the person of the President, has intentionally and irreparably poisoned the jury pool.”

    Citing 31 separate statements Biden made against MAGA Republicans during his 24-minute speech on Sept. 1, McBride charges that “The President has incited the entire nation to hate the January 6th defendants as a patriotic duty.”

    According to the Defendant’s Emergency Motion for Immediate Pre-Trial Release and Request for an Emergency Hearing (pdf) McBride also “moves the Court to order the immediate temporary release” of Ryan Nichols “from pretrial confinement” because:

    1. the DC Jail is presently retaliating against Defendant for filing a civil case against the Jail
    2. the length of Defendant’s pretrial confinement is a violation of his due process rights
    3. the Defendant is being held in conditions of confinement that violate his civil and human rights.

    McBride has also petitioned the court (pdf) for a change of venue.

    Nowhere Else to Go

    In the aftermath of the assault against their loved ones, each Jan. 6 family member is dealing with the situation in their own ways. Sarah has requested the CCTV video footage so she can see for herself what happened. Bonnie and Don want answers. Nicole Reffitt is heading to D.C. “to stand in vigil with some other 1-6ers outside the jail” to sing with the prisoners.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 23:30

  • Americans Love The NFL, But Change Is Looming
    Americans Love The NFL, But Change Is Looming

    While Baseball is often referred to as “America’s favorite pastime”, the NFL has long surpassed the MLB as the nation’s favorite professional sports league.

    As Statista’s Felix Richter notes, for several reasons, including first and foremost its better suitability for television, football flew by baseball as Americans’ favorite sport to watch in the 1960s and hasn’t looked back since. In recent years, baseball has even been surpassed by basketball, as younger audiences prefer the action-packed, star-studded NBA over what many young viewers consider the dragging affair of a three-hour baseball game.

    Infographic: Americans Love the NFL, But Change Is Looming | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    According to findings from Statista’s Global Consumer Survey, the NFL remains the number 1 among major professional sports leagues in the U.S., at least for now. While 52 percent of self-declared sports fans follow the National Football League, compared to 42 percent for the NBA and 31 percent who follow the MLB, looking at the youngest group of respondents reveals a worrying trend for NFL executives.

    Among 16- to 25-year-olds, the NFL only plays second fiddle to the NBA, with just 33 percent of young sports fans following the league. The NBA reaches 40 percent of Gen X fans, who are overall less likely to follow any professional sports leagues than their older compatriots.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 23:00

  • New Merchant Code Approved For Card Purchases Of Guns, Ammunition
    New Merchant Code Approved For Card Purchases Of Guns, Ammunition

    Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

    An international standards body has approved the creation of a merchant category code for gun retailers to identify credit card sales of guns and ammunition.

    The International Organization for Standardization (ISO)—a non-governmental body based in Geneva, Switzerland that creates standards across various industries, including the financial services industry—has approved the new merchant category code for gun and ammunition stores, according to a Sept. 9 announcement from Amalgamated Bank, a New York-based bank that had applied to ISO for the merchant category code.

    The approval took place at a meeting on Sept. 7, ISO confirmed to Payments Dive in an email. A subcommittee of the organization approved the code, an ISO spokeswoman told Reuters.

    Merchant category codes comprise four digits and are used to classify retailers across various industries.

    The approval from ISO enables banks that process payments from gun retailers to decide whether they should assign the new category code to gun merchants. The code could help monitors track where a person spends money via card, but wouldn’t show what specific items were purchased.

    Currently, credit card companies classify retailers with other merchants as either “5999: Miscellaneous retail stores” or “5941: Sporting Goods Stores,” according to CBS News. While a new merchant category for firearm stores has been approved, it doesn’t have a code value assigned just yet, as of late Sept. 9.

    Amalgamated Bank, which calls itself “America’s socially responsible bank,” said that its decision to push for creating the new code is “the result of nearly three years of research and partnership with issue experts at Guns Down America and Giffords Law Center and broad support from elected officials, pension funds, and others across the United States.”

    Amalgamated Bank was founded by union workers nearly 100 years ago. The bank first tried to apply to create the gun merchant code in July 2021, but the application had been denied twice by the ISO, after which it applied again for the new merchant category code in June this year, reported CBS News.

    Bank Urges Card Companies to Adopt New Category Code

    Following the ISO approval, Amalgamated Bank is calling for credit card companies that typically follow the ISO standards to implement the new merchant category, but it is unclear whether the companies will adopt it.

    Priscilla Sims Brown, the president and CEO of the bank, said on Sept. 9: “We all have to do our part to stop gun violence. And it sometimes starts with illegal purchases of guns and ammunition.”

    “The new code will allow us to fully comply with our duty to report suspicious activity and illegal gun sales to authorities without blocking or impeding legal gun sales,” she said in a statement.

    “This action answers the call of millions of Americans who want safety from gun violence and we are proud to have led the broad coalition of advocates, shareholders, and elected officials that achieved this historic outcome.”

    Some groups have criticized the ISO approval.

    Mark Oliva, the managing director for public affairs for the National Shooting Sports Foundation, a U.S. trade association for the firearms industry, told The Center Square that the code’s creation was “flawed on its premise.”

    “Those who believe it will help law enforcement do not provide details on what should be considered suspicious purchases,” Oliva told the outlet.

    He separately told Gothamist: “This decision chills the free exercise of constitutionally protected rights and does nothing to assist law enforcement with crime prevention or holding criminals accountable. Attaching codes specific to firearm and ammunition purchases casts a dark pall by gun control advocates who are only interested in disarming lawful gun owners.”

    Lars Dalseide, a spokesperson for the National Rifle Association Institute for Legislative Action (NRA-ILA), the lobbying arm of the gun rights advocacy group NRA, told The Center Square:

    “Implying that firearm purchases are suspicious demonstrates an obvious bias these attorneys general hold against anyone who chooses to exercise a fundamental constitutional right.

    “Creating specific credit card codes for firearms lays the groundwork for a de facto firearm registration. Suggesting otherwise is either shortsighted or deceptive,” Dalseide added.

    “The true travesty is that New Yorkers and Californians must continue facing the violent criminals pushed back on the streets thanks to these two attorneys general reckless soft-on-crime policies.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 22:30

  • Slava Raytheon: Zelensky To Headline Conference Of US Defense Companies
    Slava Raytheon: Zelensky To Headline Conference Of US Defense Companies

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has throughout much of the six-month long Ukraine war been busy rallying support to his side by addressing dozens of Western countries’ parliaments, for which Ukraine has since been rewarded with billions of dollars in foreign defense and humanitarian aid. His foremost theme has been a constant refrain of his military urgently needing more, more and more weapons. He’s even requested advanced fighter jets, months ago asking Congress to “close the skies” (or in essence a No Fly Zone).

    Now for the first time it seems he’ll go straight to the source, as he’s set to be the keynote speaker, via video link, to a major meeting of American defense contractors later this month. The Hill is confirming that “he headlines the annual Future Force Capabilities Conference and Exhibition hosted by the National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA)” in Austin, Texas on September 21.

    Getty Images

    Ukraine’s defense minister Oleksii Reznikov is also scheduled to address the conference. Naturally, both are expected to emphasize a message that more and heavier arms are needed if Ukrainian forces hope to sustain their eastern and southern counteroffensive, which in the last days has been widely reported as successful – at least so far.

    Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov has on Saturday admitted his army has had to “regroup” troops from Balakliya and Izyum in Kharkiv Oblast. This is being taken as a sign Ukraine’s military is being pushed back from Kharkiv and could be taking heavy losses, with the day prior Zelensky announcing Ukraine has taken back over 30 settlements in the region.

    “We are gradually taking control over more settlements, returning the Ukrainian flag and protection for our people.” Zelenskiy said. “Our army, intelligence, the Security Service of Ukraine continue active actions in several operational directions. They continue successfully.”

    This is the message he’s expected to stress in addressing the major arms expo in August. In the audience will be representatives from the leading military weapons manufacturers in the US

    News of the Ukrainian president’s speech to the NDIA — whose membership includes defense industry giants like Raytheon Technologies, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics — comes as Kyiv looks to fend off Russia’s invasion as it drags through its sixth month.

    Eight defense contractors — including Raytheon, Lockheed and General Dynamics — attended a meeting at the Pentagon in April to discuss how the U.S. could speed up production to help Ukraine fend off Moscow’s war.

    The U.S. has committed $15.2 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration, including $14.5 billion since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.

    A number of independent observers are noting just how obviously this brings to the fore one of the key motives of US hawks, especially officials tied closely to the military-industrial complex, who have shown no interest in pushing both warring sides to the negotiating table. In fact, evidence has recently emerged strongly pointing to Washington and London playing the role of behind-the-scenes saboteurs to prior ceasefire talks.

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    Instead the past months have seen these officials by and large argue for Congress to sign off on essentially a “blank check” bonanza of Ukraine arms procurement. Like other recent conflicts, for example in the Middle East, they see the Russia-Ukraine war as fundamentally an opportunity.

    Journalist Max Blumenthal sums up the unspoken reality nicely: “Fresh off his appearance at Wall Street, where he pitched corporations on the plunder of his country’s assets, Zelensky will appear at a conference of arms makers in Texas to present his country’s war as a fantastic business opportunity.”

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    And Zelensky will without doubt continue to get the red carpet rolled out for him by the world’s wealthiest defense firms, given he singularly remains the arms contractors’ #1 foreign client – and all at the expense of the common US taxpayer to boot.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 22:00

  • "Nothing To Do With Man" – Astrophysicist Says Climate-Cultists "Are On A Gravy Train" To Make Money
    “Nothing To Do With Man” – Astrophysicist Says Climate-Cultists “Are On A Gravy Train” To Make Money

    This year’s heat waves and subsequent droughts resulted in the hottest summer in recorded European history, according to a report by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) – an EU-funded Earth observation agency.

    “We’ve not only had record August temperatures for Europe, but also for the summer, with the previous summer record only being one year old,” said Freja Vamborg, a senior scientist at the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

    Of course, this ‘record’ heat in the summer has prompted activists to trot out the same old tropes that this ‘confirms climate change’ is having a catastrophic effect on the world already. With the energy crisis facing Europe, this is not a particularly comfortable topic as numerous nations abandon – albeit apparently temporarily – their green policies in favor of not letting their citizenry starve or freeze.

    Given that it’s all ‘settled science’, the following RT News anchor was probably expecting a rote response to his questions about climate change.

    He was in for a big surprise…

    Piers Corbyn – physicist, meteorologist, and elder brother of former UK Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn – explained to the shocked RT anchor that the climate “has always been changing, but this has nothing to do with man”

    The astrophysicist instead believes that changes in the Earth’s climate and its weather are dictated primarily by cyclical activity on the surface of the sun (and not, pointedly, by the effects of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere). 

    “For one thing science doesn’t do settled opinions,” Corbyn says.

    “And for another they are all wrong.”

    “Surely man has something to with this,” exclaims the struggling new anchor, to which Corbyn responds:

    “No, the only connection is that man is here at the same time as the sun and the moon are doing things.”

    The frustrated anchor falls back to consensus, asking “so how come then that so many climate change scientists disagree with you and they get so much support for that?”

    Corbyn’s laughing response was straightforward:

    “…those that say this are just trying to make money… They’re on a gravy train for heaven’s sake.”

    Watch the brief interview below:

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    Finally, we note that in former UK PM Boris Johnson once lauded Corbyn as “the world’s foremost meteorological soothsayer”.

    We suspect this is the last time Mr.Corbyn will be allowed on TV…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 21:30

  • DC Mayor Declares Public Emergency After Busloads Of Migrants Overwhelm Nation's Capital
    DC Mayor Declares Public Emergency After Busloads Of Migrants Overwhelm Nation’s Capital

    The Mayor of Washington DC has declared a public emergency after the sanctuary city received more than 9,400 illegal aliens from the states of Texas and Arizona.

    “Our response involves how can we live up to our values and make sure we have a humane, efficient process to deal with a crisis not of our making,” Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) told reporters during a briefing.

    The emergency was declared on Sept. 8, and enables Bowser to spend $10 million establish the Office of Migrant Services, in order to help migrants arriving from border states. The city also hopes to snag some federal funding, or to be reimbursed for the expenditures.

    According to Bowser’s office, the new system is necessary “so that our homeless services system can continue to function in support of DC residents and so that we can properly respond to the ongoing humanitarian crisis and provide a humane assistance to migrants.”

    According to Ranae Eze, press secretary for Texas Gov. Greg Abbot, Bowser is a hypocrite.

    “In a city with a population over 700,000, she’s claiming an emergency for just over 7,900 migrants being bused into her sanctuary city,” Eze told the Epoch Times. “That’s barely 1 percent of the population of Washington, D.C. The true emergency is on our nation’s southern border—not in our nation’s capital—where small Texas border towns are overrun and overwhelmed by hundreds of migrants every single day as the Biden Administration dumps them in their communities.

    Instead of fearmongering and complaining about a few thousand migrants in her sanctuary city, Mayor Bowser should call on President Biden to do his job and secure the border—something the President continues failing to do. Governor Abbott’s invitation is still open for Mayor Bowser to visit the border and see the actual crisis firsthand.”

    More via the Epoch Times‘ Zachary Stieber:

    Thousands of Immigrants

    Texas and Arizona have been busing thousands of illegal aliens who were released by U.S. authorities to Washington since the spring. Approximately 9,400 illegal immigrants have been bused to the nation’s capital since then.

    Most of them move on to other destinations, according to Washington officials. Many of the immigrants are being housed in shelters and hotel rooms.

    Texas has also sent illegal immigrants to New York City and Chicago.

    The Republican governors of Texas and Arizona, Abbott and Doug Ducey, respectively, say the busing will continue indefinitely. They have said they are trying to trigger a stronger response to border enforcement from President Joe Biden.

    Bowser said officials thus expect hundreds more buses to drop immigrants off in Washington during the fall.

    The mayor has repeatedly criticized the governors.

    Bowser has twice asked the Department of Defense for National Guard assistance but has been denied both times.

    “I’m very disappointed in that,” Bowser said on Sept. 8. “And I’m very disappointed in not having a federal site that we can use.”

    She said conversations with the Biden administration are ongoing.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 21:00

  • China Creates 'Digital Twin' Of Americans: Former DoD Cybersecurity Expert
    China Creates ‘Digital Twin’ Of Americans: Former DoD Cybersecurity Expert

    Authored by Hannah Ng and Tiffany Meier via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    As reports have emerged that Chinese military-linked firms gather American DNA, these firms are now capable of creating digital replicas of Americans, according to John Mills, former director of cybersecurity policy, strategy, and international affairs at the Department of Defense.

    They have the capacity to create these complex models of each of us. They’re making digital twins of us,” Mills told the “China in Focus” program on NTD News, sister media outlet of The Epoch Times.

    The logo of Chinese gene firm BGI Group is seen at its building in Beijing, China, on March 25, 2021. (Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters)

    Digital Twins

    He pointed to BGI Group, formerly Beijing Genomics Institute, which is the leader of the CCP’s genome project, as well as a leading producer of COVID-19 tests.

    In 2017, the company’s leader boasted that it had reached an industrial level of success in progressing through genetic reform and gene editing, to gene synthesizing, and mass-producing multiple viruses, bacteria, and large yeasts.

    They can do all kinds of nefarious things with no constraint or loss. They have our data.” That data could be used to tailor a follow-up virus to target certain non-Han ethnicities, Mills warned.

    Mills referred to Beijing’s military-civil fusion policy, calling Chinese companies “extensions of state security, state intelligence.”

    That includes every Chinese company and every company that is incorporated in China, even if it is American in origin, he stressed. “They are the eyes and the ears and the collectors.”

    That means when Americans give information to these companies, their data is essentially going to Chinese intelligence, Mills said.

    “So they know about every one of us … I would presume that I have a file in China,” he added.

    BGI Targets American Researchers

    Mills raised further concerns about BGI’s group’s record of targeting distinguished American researchers.

    “They have a long history of targeting some of our best researchers … there is a proven track record that almost immediately veers into national security concerns with China,” he noted.

    The cybersecurity expert pointed to Chinese recruitment programs such as the “thousand talents plan,” allegedly to lure foreign academics to work in China, a process that facilitates the transfer of technology and know-how to the regime.

    China was just using money to essentially buy off professors and academics. So they have a very active program to go after our intellectual property, and essentially, to co-opt some of our leading researchers,” he said.

    Mills referred to the Biden administration’s canceling of the “China Initiative” launched by the Trump administration in 2018 to combat the Chinese regime’s state-sponsored espionage and theft of trade secrets, calling the move “ridiculous and silly.”

    “It’s going to [take] many years for … the CCP to demonstrate they can be trusted in these circles because right now, all the evidence is leaning against them,” he said.

    Americans, Safeguard Your Medical Records

    In his opinion, Americans, especially those related to the government sector, should not do DNA tests. Furthermore, he suggested that Americans closely safeguard their medical records.

    “Be aware that anything you do digitally … is being vacuumed up,” he warned.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 20:30

  • China Reveals Discovery Of New Lunar Mineral As Space Mining Race Accelerates
    China Reveals Discovery Of New Lunar Mineral As Space Mining Race Accelerates

    One day after Chinese state media published a story about discovering a new phosphate lunar mineral, China National Space Administration (CNSA) (equivalent to NASA) released a mission timeline for future moon exploration trips.

    On Friday, state media outlet Global Times announced that lunar samples collected in 2020 during the Chiang’e-5 million contained a small amount of a new lunar mineral called “Changesite-(Y)” in rock and dust samples.

    The single crystalline particle measured around 10 microns in diameter – or around one-tenth of a human hair, according to SCMP, citing Chinese official Wang Xuejun of the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC)

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    Changesite-(Y) is a phosphate mineral found in lunar basalts. The discovery of the new mineral was confirmed by Commission on New Minerals, Nomenclature and Classification of the International Mineralogical Association.

    “[The discovery] provides more basic scientific data for the evaluation and development of lunar resources and has deepened mankind’s knowledge of the moon and the solar system,” Dong Baotong, vice-chairman of the China Atomic Energy Authority (CAEA), said. 

    Separately, the lunar sample also contained helium-3, a rare element on earth that it known to be abundant on the moon. The isotope has a wide variety of uses – including as a potential fuel source.

    Xuejun said the findings within the 2020 sample “provides fundamental scientific data for future assessment of Helium-3 in lunar samples and their exploration.

    Following the announcement, Liu Jizhong, an administrator with the China Lunar Exploration and Space Program Center, was quoted by state media outlet CCTV as saying three lunar orbiters would be sent to the moon in an accelerated exploration program over the next year years.

    So what’s so special about Helium-3? 

    The European Space Agency (ESA) explained the idea of mining a “clean and efficient form of energy from the Moon” is entirely possible because the lunar surface has “large quantities of Helium-3.” 

    “It is thought that this isotope could provide safer nuclear energy in a fusion reactor, since it is not radioactive and would not produce dangerous waste products,” ESA continued. 

    The race to mine the moon and extract all sorts of minerals is well underway, and China is proving that. We have pointed out mining could start as early as 2025

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 20:00

  • Florida Watchdog Groups Allege Mail-in Ballot And Voter Roll Violations In 2020, 2022
    Florida Watchdog Groups Allege Mail-in Ballot And Voter Roll Violations In 2020, 2022

    Authored by Steven Kovac via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A citizens’ group called the Florida First Freedom Alliance (F3A) last week presented evidence to election officials and law enforcement officers that more than a thousand mail-in ballots were voted from undeliverable addresses in Orange County in the Aug. 23 primary election.

    The group also released evidence alleging that across the state serious irregularities occurred involving thousands of unrequested changes of addresses being recorded on voter registration rolls without the knowledge or consent of the affected voters.

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis listens as Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody speaks during a press conference at the Broward County Courthouse in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., on Aug. 18, 2022. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    A separate citizens’ group called the Lake County Election Integrity and Voter Protection Coalition (LCEIVPC) collected the data from public source information.

    F3A spokesperson Christopher Gleason, of Clearwater, told The Epoch Times, “Based on an analysis of the 2020 election and the data that we have thus far for the 2022 primary, we are seeing Supervisor of Elections Offices sending out envelopes with vote-by-mail ballots enclosed to mailing addresses that cannot receive these vote-by-mail ballots.

    The resulting problem is that there are thousands of completely undeliverable vote-by-mail ballots that were later turned in to election officials as legitimately cast vote-by-mail ballots.”

    F3A has made available to election officials a spreadsheet containing the results of a computer crosscheck conducted by LCEIVPC of what Gleason calls “only a small sliver” of those who requested mail-in ballots in Orange County.

    Christopher Gleason, spokesperson for the Florida First Freedom Alliance. (Courtesy photo)

    The data allegedly reveals that almost 1,100 vote-by-mail ballots were sent to and cast from undeliverable addresses in that small sample alone.

    This is what happens when dirty voter registration rolls result in massive numbers of undeliverable ballots,” Gleason told The Epoch Times.

    The question is, who is voting them?

    The Orange County Supervisor of Elections Office did not respond to a request for comment by press time.

    LCEIVPC spokesperson Kris Jurski told The Epoch Times in a recent phone interview:

    “There are thousands of people across Florida listed on the voter rolls whose address is flawed with either incomplete or inaccurate information—missing a digit in the zip code, an apartment complex with inaccurate, incomplete, apartment numbers, or none at all, and misspelled words. Small errors. But just enough to render a mail-in ballot undeliverable.

    The whole game is to generate undeliverable ballots—a portion of which are somehow being obtained and voted by somebody else,” alleged Jurski.

    “And the volume of those undeliverable ballots also serves the purpose of muddying the waters, creating confusion, and overwhelming the system,” he said.

    After analyzing the July 2022 voter rolls, Jurski’s group informed Florida elections officials that in just one of the state’s 27 U.S. congressional districts (District 11) nearly 60,000 residential addresses were in need of updating and correction.

    The group found over 30,000 residential addresses that were designated by the United States Postal Service as undeliverable.

    Jurski stated there were thousands of address splits in which voters had their addresses temporarily altered in 2020 and that the practice continues today.

    “Performing the switch is how an unauthorized actor could get a person’s mail-in ballot without his or her knowledge.

    This may be why there are so many obviously faulty addresses kept on voter registration rolls.

    It may also explain the experience reported by many in-person voters who showed up at their polling places to vote on election day and were told by the election worker they had already voted, Jurski said.

    “Thousands of these ballots are being voted by someone—then just in time for the election, the addresses are electronically switched back, making the scheme all but undetectable by local election officials.

    “This is classic identity theft,” alleged Jurski.

    He explained that the voter’s name, ID number, house number (but not his street name), and all other information in his voting records remain the same on the registration rolls.

    He said the switches are done in low volume over a wide area of jurisdictions, and that there is less such activity during primaries because fewer votes are needed to impact the outcome of races than in general elections.

    Many elections in Florida are decided by less than one percent or even by just a handful of votes, so the situation is very concerning,” he said.

    Jurski told The Epoch Times that a citizens’ canvass of 12th Street in the city of Clermont in Lake County, conducted on Aug. 27, just days after Florida’s Aug. 23 primary election, found residents completely unaware of a switch that was made to their voter registration records.

    Without their knowledge, request, or assent, all of the 12th Street voters surveyed had their addresses electronically changed to say Red Belly Road and then changed back again weeks later.

    “We obtained 37 sworn affidavits from the 37 people registered to vote on 12th Street attesting that they never requested a change of address.

    A voter information card issued to a resident of 12th Steet in Clermont, Fla. with an inaccurate Red Belly Road address. (Courtesy photo)

    “A married couple residing on 12th Street showed us two voter information cards displaying their names and inaccurately listing them as living on Red Belly Road,” Jurski said.

    Alan Hays, Supervisor of Elections in Lake County, told The Epoch Times in a Sept. 5 phone interview that he was aware of the 12th Street incident.

    Hays, a Republican, said he wants to assure people that every change on the Lake County voter rolls was made by “authorized personnel, either directly employed by Lake County or contracted with it.

    We are not in violation of any law. We completely follow the letter of the law.

    “I don’t question the intent of the citizens’ groups. In fact, I share their desire for pure and clean elections.”

    Hays explained that the 12th Street changes (to Red Belly Road and back to 12th Street again) resulted from the United States Postal Service referring to the block as 12th Street, while the Lake County E-911 System calls the same thoroughfare Red Belly Road.

    “As we were in the process of making our precincts coincide with newly redrawn district lines, the consultant we employed used the E-911 designation of Red Belly Road instead of the name 12th Street.

    “Our office chose to use the E-911 Geo Point Data System for our redistricting work,” explained Hays.

    Greg Holcomb, the director of public safety support and 911 coordinator for Lake County, told The Epoch Times, “We have never referred to 12th Street in Clermont as Red Belly Road. It has never been named Red Belly Road.

    “There was a 12th Street in the Wekiva Falls RV Resort that was renamed Red Belly Road, but that was in Sorrento and has nothing to do with the 12th Street in Clermont. They are on opposite ends of Lake County.”

    United States Postal Service records show the communities have different zip codes.

    In all but the above-mentioned case of the married couple’s voter information cards, the Postal Service considered the block residents’ mail undeliverable if it bore the Red Belly Road address.

    According to Jurski, the long-time personal acquaintance between the couple and their mail carrier may have been a factor in their receiving the misaddressed envelopes containing the inaccurate voter information cards.

    In his letter to election officials, Gleason alleged that the existing safeguards provided by Florida law to prevent the misuse of mail-in ballots are being ignored by many county election supervisors.

    He pointed to Florida statute 101.6103, a law governing mail-in ballot procedure, which says in part, “Ballots shall be addressed to each elector at the address appearing in the registration records and placed in an envelope which is prominently marked Do Not Forward.”

    The F3A provided election authorities with screenshots of mail-in ballot envelopes that were sent out to voters that do not bear what they allege to be the statutorily required instruction “Do Not Forward.”

    Instead, the envelopes only say, “Return Service Requested.”

    That is a clear violation of the plain language of the law,” alleged Gleason.

    Specific words have specific meanings in the law and in postal regulations.”

    Gleason contends that the deficient labeling does not clearly and definitively inform apartment managers, RV park managers, or mailroom clerks handling other people’s mail that it should not be forwarded.

    As evidence of the problem, Gleason’s group provided authorities with a screenshot of a vote-by-mail ballot envelope that had been forwarded in Pinellas County.

    Similar evidence of such occurrences in other counties, such as Pasco, has also been sent along to election officials.

    Dustin Chase, the deputy supervisor of elections in Pinellas County, disagrees that the envelopes used by his office violate the statute.

    Chase told The Epoch Times in a phone interview, “From our perspective and that of our attorneys, we are conducting elections legally pursuant to all laws.”

    Chase described F3A as “a very sincere group of patriots that is dedicated to ensuring the integrity of our elections. We respect them.”

    However, Chase went on to state that the group is not understanding that the section of the Florida election law it cites applies only to “all-mail-in elections,” such as referendums, where no candidates or offices appear on the ballot and there is no in-person voting.

    Gleason contends that the plain statutory language governs the handling of mail-in ballots in all elections.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 19:30

  • From AOL To Google: Visualizing The Most Popular Websites From 1993-2022
    From AOL To Google: Visualizing The Most Popular Websites From 1993-2022

    Over the last three decades, the internet has grown at a mind-bending pace.

    In 1993, there were fewer than 200 websites available on the World Wide Web. Fast forward to 2022, and that figure has grown to 2 billion.

    As Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang shows in this animated graphic by James Eagle provides a historical look at the evolution of the internet, showing the most popular websites over the years from 1993 to 2022.

    The 90s to Early 2000s: Dial-Up Internet

    It was possible to go on the proto-internet as early as the 1970s, but the more user-centric and widely accessible version we think of today didn’t really materialize until the early 1990s using dial-up modems.

    Dial-up gave users access to the web through a modem that was connected to an active telephone line. There were several different portals in the 1990s for internet use, such as Prodigy and CompuServe, but AOL quickly became the most popular.

    AOL held its top spot as the most visited website for nearly a decade. By June 2000, the online portal was getting over 400 million monthly visits. For context, there were about 413 million internet users around the world at that time.

     

    But when broadband internet hit the market and made dial-up obsolete, AOL lost its footing, and a new website took the top spot—Yahoo.

    The Mid 2000s: Yahoo vs. Google

    Founded in 1994, Yahoo started off as a web directory that was originally called “Jerry and David’s Guide to the World Wide Web.”

    When the company started to pick up steam, its name changed to Yahoo, which became a backronym that stands for “Yet Another Hierarchical Officious Oracle.”

    Yahoo grew fast and by the early 2000s, it became the most popular website on the internet. It held its top spot for several years—by April 2004, Yahoo was receiving 5.6 billion monthly visits.

     

    But Google was close on its heels. Founded in 1998, Google started out as a simpler and more efficient search engine, and the website quickly gained traction.

    Funny enough, Google was actually Yahoo’s default search engine in the early 2000s until Yahoo dropped Google so it could use its own search engine technology in 2004.

    For the next few years, Google and Yahoo competed fiercely, and both names took turns at the top of the most popular websites list. Then, in the 2010s, Yahoo’s trajectory started to head south after a series of missed opportunities and unsuccessful moves.

    This cemented Google’s place at the top, and the website is still the most popular website as of January 2022.

    The Late 2000s, Early 2010s: Social Media Enters the Chat

    While Google has held its spot at the top for nearly two decades, it’s worth highlighting the emergence of social media platforms like YouTube and Facebook.

    YouTube and Facebook certainly weren’t the first social media platforms to gain traction. MySpace had a successful run back in 2007—at one point, it was the third most popular website on the World Wide Web.

     

    But YouTube and Facebook marked a new era for social media platforms, partly because of their ​​impeccable timing. Both platforms entered the scene around the same time that smartphone innovations were turning the mobile phone industry on its head. The iPhone’s design, and the introduction of the App store in 2008, made it easier than ever to access the internet via your mobile device.

    As of January 2022, YouTube and Facebook are still the second and third most visited websites on the internet.

    The 2020s: Google is Now Synonymous With the Internet

    Google is the leading search engine by far, making up about 90% of all web, mobile, and in-app searches.

    What will the most popular websites be in a few years? Will Google continue to hold the top spot? There are no signs of the internet giant slowing down anytime soon, but if history has taught us anything, it’s that things change. And no one should get too comfortable at the top.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 19:00

  • "An Ugly Thing To Watch" – China Is Facing An Employment Crisis
    “An Ugly Thing To Watch” – China Is Facing An Employment Crisis

    Authored by Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research, via TheMarket.ch,

    The implosion of the real estate sector has stalled the Chinese growth machine. As a consequence, unemployment is rising. Western consumer goods companies with a significant presence in the country will feel the knock-on effects.

    The projectile that was the Chinese economy has slowed and turned back toward earth. The Zero Covid policies and the real estate crisis brought China’s economy to an unnatural equipoise, seeming to hover in a no-growth zone for a few quarters.

    Now, having failed to reach escape velocity, the rocket ship has turned around. The growth inversion will be an ugly thing to watch: millions of Chinese unemployed, crashing demand.

    Back in the late 1990s, foreign visitors to China were bowled over by the GDP growth rates: 15%, 17%, and with low inflation. Rural people moved to the coast to live in factory dorms and work 80 hours a week making widgets for the world. Farmers planted cash crops and sold the produce in «free markets» that had opened across the country then took the money home and built themselves new houses.

    For decades, the country had been held back, in poverty, with high levels of savings but no investment in industry or infrastructure. Suddenly, all that changed. Commerce became possible. Everyone’s lot in life was improving.

    It was a great run: thirty years of optimism, thirty years of investment-fueled growth. The machine sputtered in 1998 and then in 2008, but leaders doubled, tripled, and quadrupled down, flooding the economy with investment capital.

    When government leaders feared crashing international demand in the global financial crisis, they responded by pouring resources into real estate. Where the investment of the previous decades had largely gone into road, rail, telecom, and computerization that improved productivity, after 2008, the government force-fed the economy on capital to keep the economic machine going, and productivity sputtered.

    Domestic Labor Market Slumps

    It was going to take just a gentle push to make it all end, and that came with the property crash in summer 2021. Now, the news is all about unemployment. The government reports that about one-fifth of young people under 25 who are seeking work cannot find any. Although statistics on employment among older people are opaque, occasional independent surveys in the countryside indicate high levels of unemployment. Civil servants in the wealthiest regions are taking massive pay cuts.

    Foreign investors have long taken a view that only 350 million reasonably prosperous people in the coastal cities matter to the economy. But even these wealthier people are seeing employment erode: banks, private education, brokerages, and other white-collar industries are laying off major portions of their workforce. The press is full of reports of layoffs in tech companies. The pharmaceutical sector is bleeding staff. Individual income tax receipts are falling.

    The shuffling of feet is turning to a stampede. Formerly mighty companies like Tencent are selling off parts. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is selling down its stake in EV maker BYD. The founder of Huawei told employees that the company must focus on «survival.» Chinese real estate companies listed in Hong Kong reported that their earnings have declined by 87% so far in 2022.

    Consumption Slows Down

    To combat this, Chinese banks are furiously lowering rates and pushing out loans. The central bank is fighting the decline of the Renminbi, apparently spending down its stock of foreign exchange reserves but predicting that Renminbi will soon crest the long-feared 7:1 exchange rate against the U.S. dollar.

    An «unemployment rate» is all but meaningless in a country that has not adapted to the workforce changes post 1995. China does not count rural people (about 60% of the population) or most gig workers. It accounts very poorly for people who do not have labor contracts—which is most of the migrants working in cities. We also know China will do its utmost to hide distress from the outside world.

    But that is becoming more difficult, as public company numbers continue to disappoint. High unemployment means lower income, which means less spending, which means higher unemployment. We will see tumbling sales for consumer staples companies like Coca-Cola, Unilever, Tingyi, and Unipresident.

    Smartphone sales are falling sharply. Nike is gloomy. Starbucks saw a 40% drop in sales in the most recent quarter. No more will China be the capital of luxury spending. And demand for commodities like coal and copper and iron ore is already tumbling.

    Executives based in China will be the last to admit the problem. People like the CFO of Adidas continue to profess «commitment» to the Chinese market. One wonders whom they are trying to convince.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 18:30

  • Twitter Ramps Up Wrongthink Apparatus Ahead Of Midterms
    Twitter Ramps Up Wrongthink Apparatus Ahead Of Midterms

    As Democrats seek to hobble the competition ahead of the 2022 midterms – between Trump’s ongoing Mar-a-Lago raid drama, a Steve Bannon indictment over fundraising for a private wall, and Biden’s DOJ slapping 35 Trump associates with warrants or subpoenas – ‘Big Tech’ is doing their part to protect establishment narratives from dangerous wrongthink.

    Four weeks ago, Twitter announced they would be ‘pre-bunking’ election claims during the 2022 midterms “to get ahead of misleading narratives” and “to proactively address topics that may be the subject of misinformation.”

    Then, on Wednesday the social media giant announced the expansion of ‘Birdwatch‘ – the company’s fact-checking program which has contributors flag “misleading” tweets with “notes that provide informative context.”

    According to the company, users who see a Birdwatch disclaimer are “20-40% less likely to agree with the substance of a potentially misleading Tweet than someone who sees the Tweet alone.”

    As Just the News notes, however, big tech censorship during the 2020 presidential election – ranging from evidence of voting irregularities, to Hunter Biden’s laptop – was essentially election interference.

    Twitter banned MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell for claiming the 2020 election was stolen, suspended several accounts linked to state audits of the election, and claimed in fact checks that ‘mail-in voting was secure‘ despite evidence to the contrary.

    Twitter fact checks claimed that mail-in voting was secure despite the warnings about the vulnerability of mail-in voting to election fraud sounded in the 2005 report of the bipartisan Commission on Federal Election Reform cochaired by former President Jimmy Carter, as well as numerous issues with mail-in ballots reported during the 2020 presidential election.

    Following Election Day, Twitter slapped numerous tweets about the 2020 election with the warning “This claim about election fraud is disputed.” The ubiquitous warning eventually became an internet meme, with social media users — including celebrities and corporations — posting random facts or jokes accompanied by their own “disputed” label. –Just the News

    In fact, there’s ample evidence of voting irregularities – so much that Just the News has compiled 26 such examples (excerpted in part below):

    • Corrupt conduct  Ex-Prince William County voter registrar Michele White has been charged by Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares with two felony counts alleging corrupt conduct as an election official and making a false statement, and one misdemeanor charge of willful neglect of duty by an elected official. The county’s Office of Elections said White’s conduct “did not impact the outcome of any election contest” and was discovered by her successor.
    • Felons voting  Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced in August that 20 convicted felons were charged with felonies for allegedly voting illegally in the 2020 election in the state.

    • Voter fraud in Wisconsin  As many as 22 voter fraud referrals for the 2020 election have been made over the past year by local clerks, according to a Wisconsin Elections Commission report.

    • Missed mail-in ballots — On Aug. 5, 26 mail-in ballots for the 2020 election that had never been delivered to their intended voters were discovered in a U.S. Postal Service in Baltimore. 

    • Illegal voting in Ohio — Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose has referred four people for prosecution after they allegedly voted twice, once in Ohio and once in another state. In addition, 11 illegal immigrants were referred to Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost for prosecution in August, with 10 allegedly registering to vote and one who may have illegally voted. LaRose also referred 62 people suspected of election fraud for prosecution in February.

    • Illegal ballot drop boxes — The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled earlier this month that the 570 drop boxes used during the 2020 election were unlawfully approved by the Wisconsin Election Commission. “Only the legislature may permit absentee voting via ballot drop boxes,” the court declared. “WEC cannot. Ballot drop boxes appear nowhere in the detailed statutory system for absentee voting. WEC’s authorization of ballot drop boxes was unlawful.” State Rep. Janel Brandtjen told Just the News that hundreds of thousands of votes were cast in the illegal drop boxes in the 2020 race, in which Joe Biden was certified the winner over Donald Trump by fewer than 21,000 votes.

    • A foreign intrusion — Federal authorities have confirmed that two Iranian nationals successfully hacked into a state computer election system, stole 100,000 voter registrations and used the data to carry out a cyber-intimidation campaign that targeted GOP members of Congress, Trump campaign officials and Democratic voters in the November 2020 election in one of the largest foreign intrusions in U.S. election history. The defendants “were part of a coordinated conspiracy in which Iranian hackers sought to undermine faith and confidence in the U.S. presidential election,” U.S. Attorney Damian Williams declared in an indictment.
    • The laptop lie — More than 50 national security experts, countless news organizations and large social media firms falsely told American voters in fall 2020 that the Hunter Biden laptop with damning revelations about Biden family corruption was Russian disinformation. In fact, the laptop was authentic and already in the FBI’s possession, and Hunter Biden was already under criminal investigation before voters cast their 2020 ballots. The false narrative had significant impact. According to a Polling Company survey for the Media Research Center, 45.1% of Biden voters were unaware of the censored laptop story. “According to our poll,” MRC’s Newsbusters reported, “full awareness of the Hunter Biden scandal would have led 9.4% of Biden voters to abandon the Democratic candidate, flipping all six of the swing states he won to Trump, giving the President 311 electoral votes.”
    • Alleged bribery — The former state Supreme Court justice appointed by the Wisconsin Legislature to investigate the 2020 election concluded that millions of dollars in donations to election administrators in five Democrat-heavy municipalities from the Mark Zuckerberg-funded Center for Tech and Civic Life violated state anti-bribery laws and corrupted election practices by turning public election authorities into liberal get-out-the-vote activists. “The Zuckerberg-funded CTCL/ Zuckerberg 5 scheme would prove to be an effective way to accomplish the partisan effort to ‘turnout’ their desired voters and it was done with the active support of the very people and the governmental institution (WEC) that were supposed to be guarding the Wisconsin elections administrative process from the partisan activities they facilitated,” Justice Michael Gableman wrote.
    • Illegal ballot harvesting in Wisconsin — Gableman also exposed an extensive ballot harvesting operation in nursing homes involving third-party activists illegally collecting the ballots of vulnerable residents. State election regulators “unlawfully directed the municipal clerks not to send out the legally required special voting deputies to nursing homes, resulting in many nursing homes’ registered residents voting at 100% rates and many ineligible residents voting, despite a guardianship order or incapacity,” Gableman wrote in his explosive report.
    • Georgia ballot harvesting probe — Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger opened a criminal investigation into allegations that liberal activists engaged in ballot harvesting prohibited under state law. Raffensperger said he was planning to issue subpoenas to identify a whistleblower who allegedly admitted he engaged in the operation, and there could be prosecutions. The True the Vote election integrity group alleged in a formal state complaint that the man admitted his role and identified nonprofits who funded it at $10 per ballot delivered. The watchdog group also claimed it had assembled cell phone location records pinpointing the alleged harvesting by as many as 240 activists.  
    • Bad voter signatures? — A review of Maricopa County’s mail-in ballots in Arizona’s 2020 presidential election estimated that more than 200,000 ballots with signatures that did not match voter files were counted without being reviewed, more than eight times the number the county acknowledged.
    • 50,000 Arizona ballots called into question  An extensive audit ordered by Arizona’s Senate officially called into question more than 50,000 ballots cast in the 2020 election — a total nearly five times Joe Biden’s official margin of victory in the state.
    • Foreign voters found on Texas rolls — An audit of Texas voter rolls identified nearly 12,000 noncitizens suspected of illegally registering to vote and nearly 600 cases in which ballots may have been cast in the name of a dead resident or by a voter who may have also voted in another state. Officials are now in the process of removing the foreign voters and deciding whether prosecutions are warranted.

    Read the rest of the claims here

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 18:00

  • Man Claiming To Be Prince Of Ghana Standing Trial Over $800,000 Fraud Scheme
    Man Claiming To Be Prince Of Ghana Standing Trial Over $800,000 Fraud Scheme

    Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The man known as “Daryl Attipoe” displayed all the apparent hallmarks of success, power, and wealth. He wore nice clothes, exuded charisma, and drove two high-end cars: a sporty red Dodge Viper and a sleek black Mercedes-Benz.

    The Federal Building in Dayton, Ohio, includes the U.S. District Court where Daryl Robert Harrison, 44, is standing trial on 16 federal charges, beginning on Sept. 6, 2022. (Janice HIsle/The Epoch Times)

    He boasted of exotic business ventures, such as mining for chrome and diamonds. He asserted that he was a member of the royal family in the West African nation of Ghana.

    In addition, authorities said he became a “cult-like” spiritual leader—one who inspired women to bow at his feet and to follow his ministry cross-country, from Ohio to Colorado.

    But he was nothing but a fraudster, prosecutors say.

    Paper and money trails led investigators to the true identity of “Prince Daryl Attipoe,” also known as “Prophet Daryl Attipoe:” Daryl Robert Harrison. He is a convicted felon who, according to authorities, had “no identifiable legitimate income” and acted as a classic “conman” in a bizarre investment scheme.

    The 44-year-old is standing trial in U.S. District Court, Dayton, Ohio, for allegedly bilking a dozen people out of more than $800,000. The investors were young and old and came from varied professions, including dentistry, accounting, and personal training.

    Harrison “fraudulently diverted” the investors’ money for his personal use, court records say.

    He and his stepfather used the funds to buy luxury vehicles, airplane tickets, hotel accommodations, trips to Africa, rental cars, and monthly rent payments exceeding $3,000 for Daryl Harrison’s 5,100-square-foot home in Parker, Colo., officials said. He, his wife, and six children lived there.

    But the younger Harrison’s lawyer, Christopher Deal, told jurors: “These investments are legit.”

    A series of “unforeseen setbacks,” including the coronavirus pandemic, prevented Harrison from making good on his business promises, Deal said, adding that his client can rightfully call himself “prince” because a royal Ghanian family befriended and then “adopted” him.

    ‘Borderline Buffoonish’ Contracts

    Harrison, who was indicted almost two years ago, is standing trial on 16 charges: conspiracy to engage in mail fraud and wire fraud, three counts of mail fraud, nine counts of wire fraud, and three counts of witness tampering. Harrison’s stepfather, Robert S. Harrison Jr., faces just one conspiracy count; his trial is set for Dec. 5 before Judge Michael J. Newman, the same judge who is presiding over the younger Harrison’s trial.

    As Harrison’s trial launched Sept. 6, assistant U.S. Attorney Dwight Keller told jurors that he intended to present testimony from 17 witnesses, including 12 people who say he financially victimized them.

    Harrison swooped in on them at supermarkets, fitness centers, religious gatherings, and “even a car wash,” Keller said.

    He targeted people who were “vulnerable” in some way—inexperienced, greedy, or “flat-out gullible,” Keller said. “Through fast talking and slick salesmanship, they were hoodwinked into investing with him.”

    Numerous documents and 23 so-called “contracts,” mostly written in Harrison’s own handwriting, support the allegations, Keller said. The contracts were written in a manner that was unsophisticated, “sophomoric” and “borderline buffoonish,” Keller said.

    Harrison promised investors that they could expect outrageously high rates of return, ranging from 28 percent to 33 percent a year, Keller said. Harrison also assured that the investors’ money would remain safe, secure, and accessible to them.

    But when investors asked questions, demanded account statements, or sought refunds, Harrison typically made himself scarce, Keller said.

    The alleged illegal activities date to 2014, after Harrison’s stepfather registered two businesses in Ohio: the nonprofit Power House of Prayer Ministries and a for-profit corporation called New Max Groups. From 2015-2020, Daryl Harrison solicited investors for New Max, sometimes instructing them to make checks payable to the ministry, court records say.

    An old-fashioned sign sits in the hallway of the ninth floor of the Federal Building in Dayton, Ohio, on Sept. 6, 2022. (Courtesy of Victoria Ellen)

    One such investor was Peggy Braun, 58. Braun, who wears eyeglasses and has short salt-and-pepper hair, walked slowly to the witness stand, where she spent hours testifying on Sept. 6–7. Braun described her dealings with Harrison, whom she knew as “Daryl Attipoe.”

    Braun met Harrison in late 2015 or early 2016 because he repeatedly came through her cashier’s checkout lane at the Kroger grocery store in Maineville, Ohio. “He would follow me around,” she said. The two would occasionally chat; they learned a few things about each other’s lives.

    Braun said she is driven to help children. She never became a mother, but she raised a relative’s two children as her own and started college funds for them. She also has made monetary contributions to the March of Dimes and St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.

    Life Savings Mostly Gone

    The man she now knows as Harrison urged her: “Invest with me. I’ll make you lots of money.” She dreamed of increasing her contributions to the children’s college funds and charities even more.

    Braun said she believed that Harrison indeed was a prince because of the way he behaved, the fancy cars he drove, and the things he told her about lucrative investment opportunities.

    “At first, I was leery about it,” Braun said. But Harrison seemed to have a way to counter all of her concerns. “I said, ‘This better not be fraud.’” His response, she says: “Don’t be silly. This is not fraud.”

    According to Braun’s testimony, she initially offered to invest $50,000—an amount that made Harrison scoff. He needed $400,000 from her, she said.

    After persuading Braun to sign an agreement committing to that amount, Harrison issued a “certificate of ownership,” with a fancy border and handwritten entries listing Braun’s name, dated Nov. 7, 2017, and “K4 Roland Shaft,” purportedly referring to a chrome mine location.

    Another document sets the value of the mine at $650 million. That investment was supposed to start generating $25,000 a month for Braun; Harrison promised she would be repaid her $400,000 within two years, she said.

    I thought he was a prince. Otherwise, I would not have done this,” she said. Braun said it felt “surreal” that “a prince came to me, trying to help me out.”

    Besides working at Kroger, Braun also worked in an office job for a local factory that went out of business last year; she held both jobs for 21 years. Braun worked hard for all the money and assets she accrued during that time.

    After she and Harrison became acquainted, they would meet at a Chinese restaurant near the Kroger store; Braun would come there after finishing her first job for the day, as she prepared to report for duty at Kroger.

    At the restaurant, Harrison would have Braun sign various agreements. They would discuss business deals, including the chrome mine, a diamond mine, and real estate investments. Harrison also repeatedly called and texted Braun to persuade her to contribute more money.

    Royally Cheated

    At one point in 2019, Harrison got Braun to sign a contract for $100,000 for a diamond mine, which was supposed to generate $10,000 a month for her. On that paper, Braun said she crossed out wording that would have given Harrison the power to manage her remaining stocks and assets.

    “He wanted everything that I had,” she said, including the college funds she had set aside for her young relatives. “He wanted the deed on my house; he wanted everything.”

    Even though her suspicions were growing as time passed and cash wasn’t flowing her way, Braun ended up giving Harrison a total of $553,500.

    I gave him most of my life savings because I thought I was going to make beaucoup money … and I wanted to help kids,” Braun testified, her voice cracking. “Kids are my life.”

    Braun had liquidated her Kroger stock, cashed in accounts she held with a nationally recognized investment firm, and took funds out of her 401-K retirement account. Harrison promised to pay extra taxes she incurred; that didn’t happen as agreed, Braun said.

    “He got the benefit. I got nothin,’” she said. She got $27,000 back from Harrison.

    Braun said she felt misled, cheated and defrauded. During 2020, she needed help paying taxes, and tried to get back some of her funds for that purpose. Harrison sent her two money orders, one for $1,000; the other for $2,000.

    But he complained to her about the cost of overnight delivery. “You’re a billionaire, millionaire, whatever you want to say, and you’re complaining about a UPS charge?” she said.

    During Braun’s testimony, prosecutors played recorded telephone conversations from May 2020. Harrison can be heard discouraging Braun from contacting a U.S. Secret Service agent who had left a business card at her home.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 17:30

  • Navy Denies FOIA Request To Publish Secret UFO Videos, Due To "National Security'" Risk
    Navy Denies FOIA Request To Publish Secret UFO Videos, Due To “National Security'” Risk

    The US Navy published three videos revealing unidentified flying objects (UFOs) — or unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) — in 2020. Those stunning videos shot by Navy pilots showed high-tech aircraft maneuvering at incredible speeds that would make supersonic fifth-generation fighters look slow. The service squashed any hope for additional releases of UAP videos because it would “harm national security.” 

    In response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request filed by the government transparency site The Black Vault, the Navy denied the further release of UAP videos. 

    “The release of this information will harm national security as it may provide adversaries valuable information regarding Department of Defense/Navy operations, vulnerabilities, and/or capabilities.

    “While three UAP videos were released in the past, the facts specific to those three videos are unique in that those videos were initially released via unofficial channels before official release … those events were discussed extensively in the public domain; in fact, major news outlets conducted specials on these events. Given the amount of information in the public domain regarding these encounters, it was possible to release the files without further damage to national security,” Gregory Cason, deputy director of the Navy’s FOIA office, wrote in a response letter.

    It appears the Navy made no attempts to conceal the existence of other UAP videos. Hence the FOIA request denial. 

    In May, the Department of Defense (DoD) held the first hearing on UAPs since the 1960s. The hearing discussed the government’s database of at least 144 UAP sightings since 2004. 

    So it appears the US government doesn’t want potential adversaries to know precisely what their Navy pilots have seen or understand, and for science fiction fans and simple human curiosity about UAPs, well, the official release of additional UAP videos appears over for now. What a total buzzkill. 

    Here’s a copy of The Black Vault’s FOIA denial from the Navy. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 17:00

  • Why Did US Torpedo The April Ukraine War Negotiated Settlement?
    Why Did US Torpedo The April Ukraine War Negotiated Settlement?

    Authored by Walt Zlotow via AntiWar.com,

    Most Americans are unaware how close Russia and Ukraine came to ending the current war in April.

    Last March 27, Ukraine president Zelensky told his people “Our goal is obvious – peace and the restoration of normal life in our native state as soon as possible.”

    He was hinting at what went unsaid: Ukraine and Russia, brokered by NATO member Turkey, reached a tentative fifteen-point peace plan to end the month old war.

    Key points were Russia withdraw from all Ukraine except for breakaway Donbas and Crimea. Ukraine would pass on future NATO membership, pledging neutrality between Russia and NATO. Donbas and Crimea would undergo political transition based on self-determination to be recognized by both combatants. Ukraine security would be guaranteed by neighboring countries but no foreign troops would enter Ukraine.

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    What’s not to like?

    For the US weapons makers, the end to a weapons manufacturing boondoggle. That $60 billion in free weaponry to Ukraine fighters has depleted our ammo dumps.

    For the US military, the end to a new perpetual war, albeit a proxy one, to relieve the boredom of peace.

    For the political class, the end to the new Cold War with Russia to weaken, marginalize, and keep them from economic integration with Europe.

    Meanwhile…

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    So on April 9, Uncle Sam sent Boris Johnson, the latest version of America’s British Prime Minister poodle, to Kiev, to school Zelensky on who’s running the war. The UK, Johnson advised “was in it for the long run,” would not be party to any Ukraine, Russian agreement since the “collective West” saw a chance to “press” Russia and make the most of it. Johnson cannot be accused of subtlety.

    Two weeks later, the US sent Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to Kyiv to reinforce Johnson’s warning and make clear the US and NATO were determined to use the war to “weaken” Russia. NATO ally Turkey has blamed the US and UK for sabotaging a promising chance to end the war early on.

    Via Associated Press

    When it comes to provoking, preventing and prolonging senseless war, America always fails the test of peace. Getting back to the question posed: Why did the US torpedo the April Ukraine war negotiated settlement?

    Because we can.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 16:30

  • Rates To 4% "Come Hell Or High Water" – Fed Has Credibility Crisis & Powell Knows It
    Rates To 4% “Come Hell Or High Water” – Fed Has Credibility Crisis & Powell Knows It

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    …some interesting statements by former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida and his ducking of questions on the Fed’s role in this mess.

    Image of Richard Clarida from video below

    Credibility Problem and Disconnect

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    Richard Clarida on Squawk Box

    Q: Is the fed data dependent or are they going to 4% come hell or high water. 

    Clarida Response

    • I think they are going to 4% hell or high water if I had to out it into two boxes.

    • Inflation is way too high. Inflation was way too high last year. 

    • Until, inflation comes down, the Fed is really a single mandate central bank.

    • They are data dependent but the inflation data is too high. So I think they are going to at least 4%. 

    • I agree it’s not a great place to be in. If it was just Putin, you are right. But unfortunately the economy is out of balance now. 

    Clarida ducked hard questions on the Fed’s role in this mess while admitting he got the inflation picture wrong.

    Clarida also supported fiscal stimulus, the last round of which was the big problem. 

    No one at the Fed saw this coming and they ridiculously kept QE going all the way to March of 2022.

    So yes, the Fed has an enormous credibility problem and Powell understands that. 

    As a direct consequence, the Fed is highly likely to make a mistake in the opposite direction. 

    Meanwhile, the big spotlight appears to be on jobs and the unemployment rate. 

    Strong Job Gains? Don’t Count On It!

     It’s Increasingly Likely That Alleged Job Strength is a Mirage of Part Time Second Jobs

    If Unemployment Levels Remain Low, How Far Can the Stock Market Decline?

    Here’s the question of the day: If Unemployment Levels Remain Low, How Far Can the Stock Market Decline?

    The answer isn’t pretty given The Fed is Openly Cheering the Stock Market Plunge Following Jackson Hole

    *  *  *

    Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 15:30

  • The "Scariest Paper Of 2022" Reveals The Terrifying Fate Of Biden's Economy: Millions Are About To Lose Their Job
    The “Scariest Paper Of 2022” Reveals The Terrifying Fate Of Biden’s Economy: Millions Are About To Lose Their Job

    For much of the past year (and certainly at the time, more than a year ago, when the so-called experts, central bankers and macrotourists were still yapping about “transitory inflation” and other things they were wrong about and do not understand), we were warning that at some point the Fed will realize that it is simply impossible to contain supply-driven inflation through stubborn rate hikes which instead would lead to a dire alternative – millions in mass layoffs and newly unemployed workers …

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    … and will revise its 2% inflation target higher, a move which will send every risk asset – from high-beta trash and meme stonks, to blue-chip icons, to bitcoin and cryptos limit up.

    To remind readers of this coming phase shift, we most recently warned in June that “at some point Fed will concede it has no control over supply. That’s when we will start getting leaks of raising the inflation target“…

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    Well, it turns out that we were right, and not just about the coming mass layoffs, but also about the inflation target leaks. But first, lets back up a bit.

    A little over one year after nobody expected the Fed would be hiking rates like a drunken sailor until some time in late 2023 or 2024, it has now become fashionable to not only predict that the Fed will keep hiking rates at every FOMC meeting and at the fastest pace since the near-hyperinflation of the 1980s, but that the central bank will somehow manage to avoid a hard landing (i.e., the hiking cycle won’t end in a recession or depression), even though every single Fed tightening cycle since 1913 has ended in disaster.

    An example of this was the statement by former Fed vice chair (and PIMCO’s “twice-revolving door”) Rich Clarida, who told CNBC that “failure is not an option for Jay Powell,” adding that “I think they’re going to 4% hell or high water. Until inflation comes down a lot, the Fed is really a single mandate central bank.”

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    Of course, if one could hike rates in a vacuum that could work – after all, Clarida himself, who admits he got this year’s soaring inflation dead wrong when he was still a daytrading god and part oft he Fed in 2021, said that the Fed may as well have just one mandate, namely to tame inflation. But what so few seem to recall is that the Fed is “hiking to spark a recession“, or as CNBC’s Steve Liesman put it, there is no such thing as “immaculate rate hikes” meaning that rate hikes have dire tradeoffs in other sectors of the economy. In other words, if the Fed’s intention is to spark a recession, it will spark a recession… leading to millions of Americans losing their jobs, something which even Elizabeth Warren appears to have grasped.

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    Yet due to the recency bias of Biden’s trillions in stimmies, and a world where workers – whether working form home or the office – have virtually all the leverage, few today can conceive of a world where inflation is zero or negative and is instead replaced with millions in unemployed workers, an outcome which one could (or rather should) say is even worse for the ruling democrats than roaring inflation. At least, with runaway prices, most people have a job and their wages are rising (at least nominally, if not in real terms).

    However, the higher rates rise, the closer we get to that inevitable moment when the BLS – unable to kick the can any longer – admits what has been obvious to so many for months: the US is facing a labor crisis of epic proportions with millions and millions of mass layoffs. And for those to whom it is not yet obvious, we urge to read a WSJ op-ed published by none other than Jason Furman, who is not some crackpot republican but Obama’s own top Economic Adviser from 2013-2017 and currently economic policy professor at Harvard.

    In Inflation and the Scariest Economics Paper of 2022, Furman summarizes a paper written by Johns Hopkins macroeconomist Larry Ball with co-authors Daniel Leigh and Prachi Mishra of the International Monetary Fund released by the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, whose conclusion is as follows: “To bring price increases down to 2%, we may need to tolerate unemployment of 6.5% for two years.

    In other words, just as we said, inflation – much of which is supply-driven, which the Fed can do nothing about – will force the Fed to crush the economy by keeping rates for much longer, the result of which will be many millions in unemployed workers, or as Furman puts it, the paper “shows why the Federal Reserve will likely need to maintain its war on inflation, even if unemployment continues to rise.”

    What is more remarkable about Furman’s read of the economist paper is that in addition to its primary theme (the lack of labor slack, or labor tightness, is responsible for some 3.4% of underlying inflation in July 2022), the paper admits precisely what we have been saying all along – that the Fed can’t control supply-side variables:

    The paper also argues, convincingly in my view, for a different measure of underlying inflation. Fluctuations in energy and food prices are generally due to factors outside the control of macroeconomic policy makers. Geopolitics and weather have elevated the inflation rate in recent years. Plunging gasoline prices are temporarily lowering the inflation rate now. That’s why economists since the 1970s have focused on “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy.

    But food and energy aren’t the only things people buy that are subject to supply-side volatility. Prices of new and used cars, for example, have gyrated over the past two years for reasons that are mostly unrelated to the strength of the overall economy. Both regular and core inflation are based on taking averages of price increases and can be distorted by large changes in outlier categories. The median inflation rate calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland drops outliers to remove these distortions.

    According to Furman, median inflation – which is a statistically better measure of the underlying inflation that policy makers can actually control – is well above the Fed’s preferred headline inflation print (which fell to zero in July on a sequential basis and has stabilize) and shows no sign of moderating and has run at a 6.6% annual rate in the last three months.

    But the “scariest” part of the new paper, Furman reveals, is when the authors use their model to forecast the unemployment rate that would be needed to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target. He explains why this is so scary:

    The authors present a range of scenarios, so I ran their model using my own assumptions…  Under these assumptions, which are more optimistic than the authors’ midpoint scenario, if the unemployment rate follows the Federal Open Market Committee’s median economic projection from June that the unemployment will rise to only 4.1%, then the inflation rate will still be about 4% at the end of 2025. To get the inflation rate to the Fed’s target of 2% by then would require an average unemployment rate of about 6.5% in 2023 and 2024.

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    Where is unemployment now: it’s 3.7% (6.014 million unemployed workers vs 164.746 million civilian labor force). This matters, because according to one of the most erudite economist Democrats, by the end of the Biden admin in 2024, the unemployment will have to soar to 6.5% for inflation to plunge to the Fed’s historical target of 2.0%

    What does this mean in absolute numbers? Assuming a modest increase in the US labor force, a 6.5% unemployment rate in 2024 would translate into no less than 10.8 million unemployed workers, an 80% increase from the 6 million today!

    Still think that politicians – and especially Democrats – will sit quietly and blindly ignore how high the Fed is hiking rates if it means that to normalize inflation back to 2% it means nearly doubling the number of unemployed Americans (and a crushing recession to boot). Spoiler alert: no, they won’t, and this may be one of the very rare occasions when Elizabeth Warren is actually right to worry about what the coming mass layoff wave means for Democrats… and the 2024 presidential election.

    So what should the Fed do? Well, according to Furman, the Fed has four options:

    1. First, place more emphasis on the ratio of job openings to unemployment and median inflation as it assesses the tightness of labor markets and the underlying rate of inflation.
    2. Second, the new paper shows how much easier it will be to tackle inflation if expectations remain under control. The Fed should follow up on Chairman Jerome Powell’s tough talk at Jackson Hole with meaningful action such as a 75-basis-point increase at the next meeting.
    3. Third, be prepared to accept the unemployment rate rising above 5% if inflation is still out of control.

    While we doubt #3 is actionable, what is more remarkable is Furman’s final proposal: it’s the one that, like the Dude’s proverbial rug, ties the room together and sets the stage for what is coming:

    Finally, stabilizing at a 3% inflation rate is probably healthier for the economy than stabilizing at 2%—so while fighting inflation should be the central bank’s only focus today, at some point the Fed should reassess the meaning of victory in that struggle.

    And just in case his WSJ proves too complicated for some mainstream experts and economists, here it is in truncated, twitter format:

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    And there you have it: remember what we said on June 21: “At some point Fed will concede it has no control over supply. That’s when we will start getting leaks of raising the inflation target.” Well… there it is.

    And while mainstream economists and the market may require quite a few months to grasp what is coming, it is the only way out of a crisis of commodities – as Zoltan has repeatedly and correctly put it – and which central banks have no control over, and thus will have to move not only the goalposts but the entire football field to avoid a social revolt or something even scarier.

    While we wait, we can’t help but snicker at what the 79-year-old figurehead in the White House tweeted today…

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    … because what Biden calls “the strongest economic recovery in recent history” is – even according to Democrats – about to be the biggest economic disaster in modern history.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 15:11

  • EV Market Revenue Set To Hit $384 Billion In 2022
    EV Market Revenue Set To Hit $384 Billion In 2022

    The global sales of electric vehicles are expected to hit $384 billion in 2022, according to data from Statista’s Mobility Market Outlook.

    Infographic: EV Market Revenue Set To Hit $384 Billion in 2022 | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck details below, battery EVs and plug-in hybrid EVs have both seen growing popularity in recent years, with projections estimating that they will reach a shared market volume of $869 billion by 2027.

    According to analysts from the Mobility Market Outlook:

    “It is safe to say that battery-powered vehicles are taking over the automobile market. The growth of the Electric Vehicles (EV) market has been significant despite the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting supply chain bottlenecks. Despite these recent challenges and rising production costs as a result of increasing raw material prices, EV sales are still going up at a fast rate. If this continues, they are set to surpass the sales of conventionally propelled vehicles (i.e., vehicles with internal combustion engines).”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 15:00

  • Idaho LGBT Pride Event Drops Children's Drag Show On 9/11 Anniversary After Sponsors Pull Funding
    Idaho LGBT Pride Event Drops Children’s Drag Show On 9/11 Anniversary After Sponsors Pull Funding

    Via Remix News,

    After multiple sponsors dropped financial support for an LGBT Pride festival in Boise, Idaho – which would have featured children performing in drag on the anniversary of 9/11 –  the organizers have now said that the child drag show has been cancelled.

    The Pride festival still features a 9/11 remembrance ceremony, which was originally supposed to be followed by a child drag queen dance event. The Drag Story Hour is still planned to go ahead. According to the schedule published on the website, attendees will be given 15 minutes to remember the thousands of lives lost on 9/11 after terrorists committed attacks on the World Trade Center buildings and the Pentagon. Immediately afterwards, drag story time will begin, which usually features a man dressed in women’s clothing reading to children. Shortly after, the children drag queen event, known as Drag Kids, was originally scheduled to begin.

    However, apparently the inclusion of children was too much for Zions Bank, which dropped funding for the event.

    After Zions Bank dropped its support, Idaho Power and the Department of Health and Welfare (DHW) also dropped out on Thursday.

    Both Zions Bank and DHW committed $18,000 to the event. The two-day festival has a total of 88 sponsors listed on its website.

    Festival organizers said the move to drop Drag Kids was a difficult decision.

    “While the vast majority of our sponsors and supporters have voiced their support for the Boise Pride Festival and the Drag Kids program, we have made the very difficult decision to postpone this performance due to increased safety concerns. The health and well-being of the kids, their parents, and the attendees of the Festival are our priority,” read a Pride press release.

    Zions Bank released a statement explaining its decision.

    “Over the years, Zions Bank has supported a variety of Pride events because they are an important part of our support for our LGBTQ employees and allies and are representative of our efforts to foster an inclusive, diverse and equitable workplace and community,” the statement reads.

    “This support for all of our employees and communities remains unchanged.”

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    The Boise Pride festival responded to Zions Bank, writing the organization is “saddened to learn this is how they have chosen to respond to clearly anti-LGBTQ+ rhetoric and actions.”

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    The pro-LGBT event will last two days and take place in the State Capitol building and a nearby park. The controversial Drag Kids event was described as “a drag show like none other, the Drag Kids range from ages 11-18 and are ready to bring it all to the Boise Pride Festival Stage! Come and cheer them on as they bring drag to the younger generation!”

    The festival is also sponsored by some of the country’s top corporations, including Amazon, Well’s Fargo, Target, Jack Daniel’s, HP, AT&T, Macy’s, Proctor and Gamble, and Chase.

    The Idaho Republican Party responded to the drag show, with the party asking for residents to boycott the event. Republicans also released a statement with phone numbers of many of the major corporations and organizations involved with sponsoring the event. The statement urges concerned citizens to call and ask them to drop their support.

    The newly elected Idaho GOP Chairwoman Dorothy Moon issued a statement on Wednesday morning calling on “concerned Idahoans” to “disavow this attack on Idaho’s children and invest their sponsorship dollars” elsewhere.

    “To be clear, this is no sleight-of-hand or political wordsmithing: Idaho’s Democrat party believes it is not only okay but laudable to encourage children to engage in public displays of sexuality,” Moon wrote in the email statement. “For those who have been following the radicalization of the Democrat party, this should come as no surprise.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 09/10/2022 – 14:30

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Today’s News 10th September 2022

  • An Asian Bretton Woods?
    An Asian Bretton Woods?

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    The financial war between Russia with China’s tacit backing on one side, and America and her NATO allies on the other has escalated rapidly. It appears that President Putin was thinking several steps ahead when he launched Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

    We have seen sanctions fail.

    We have seen Russia achieve record export surpluses. We have seen the rouble become the strongest currency on the foreign exchanges. 

    We are seeing the west enter a new round of European monetary inflation to pay everyone’s energy bills. The euro, yen, and sterling are already collapsing — the dollar will be next. From Putin’s point of view, so far, so good.

    Russia has progressed her power over Asian nations, including populous India and Iran. She has persuaded Middle Eastern oil and gas producers that their future lies with Asian markets, and not Europe. She is subsidising Asia’s industrial revolution with discounted energy. Thanks to the west’s sanctions, Russia is on its way to confirming Halford Mackinder’s predictions made over a century ago, that Russia is the true geopolitical centre of the world.

    There is one piece in Putin’s jigsaw yet to be put in place: a new currency system to protect Russia and her allies from an approaching western monetary crisis.

    This article argues that under cover of the west’s geopolitical ineptitude, Putin is now assembling a new gold-backed multi-currency system by combining plans for a new Asian trade currency with his new Moscow World Standard for gold.

    Currency developments under the radar

    Unreported by western media, there are some interesting developments taking place in Asia over the future of currencies. Earlier this summer, it emerged that Sergei Glazyev, a senior Russian economist and Minister in charge of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EAEU), was leading a committee planning a new trade currency for the Eurasian Economic Union.

    As put forward in Russian and EAEU media, the new currency is to be comprised of a mixture of national currencies and commodities. A weighting of some sort was suggested to reflect the relative importance of the currencies and commodities traded between them. At the same time, the new trade settlement currency was to be available to any other nation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the expanding BRICS membership. The ambition is for it to become an Asia-wide replacement for the dollar. 

    More specifically, the purpose is to do away with the dollar for trade settlements on cross-border transactions between participants. It is worth noting that any dollar transaction is reflected in US banks through the correspondent banking system, potentially giving the US authorities undesirable economic intelligence, and information on sanction-busting and other activities deemed illegal or undesirable by the US authorities. Furthermore, any transaction involving US dollars becomes a matter for the US legal system, giving US politicians the authority to intervene wherever the dollar is used.

    As well as removing these disadvantages, through the inclusion of a basket of commodities there appears to be an acceptance that the new trade currency must be more stable in terms of its commodity purchasing power than exists with that of the dollar. But we can immediately detect flaws in the outline proposal. The mooted inclusion of national currencies in the basket is not only an unnecessary complication, but any nation joining it would presumably trigger a wholesale rebalancing of the currency’s composition.

    Including national currencies is a preposterous suggestion, as is any suggestion that the commodity element should be weighted by trade volumes transacted between participating states. Instead, an unweighted average of energy, precious metals, and base metals makes more sense, but even that does not go far enough. The reasons are illustrated by the two charts in Figure 1. 

    The upper chart shows baskets of different categories of commodities indexed and priced in dollars. Between them, they represent a wide range of commodities and raw materials. These baskets are considerably less volatile than their individual components. For example, since April 2020 oil has risen from a distorted minus figure to a high of $130, whereas the energy basket has risen only 6.3 times, because other components have not risen nearly as much as crude oil and some components might be rising while others might be falling. Agriculture raw materials are comprised of cotton, timber, wool, rubber, and hides, not raw materials liable to undesirable seasonality. But the average of the four categories is considerably more stable than its components (the black line).

    We are moving towards price stability. However, all commodities are priced in US dollars, which being undesirable, cannot be avoided. Pricing in gold, which is legal money, eventually resolves this problem because it can be fixed against participating currencies. The result of pricing the commodity categories in gold and the average of them is shown in the lower chart.

    Since 1992, the average (the black line) has varied between 0.37 and 1.66, and is currently at 0.82, or 18% less than in January 1992. This is as stable as it gets, and even this low volatility would probably be less if the dollar wasn’t itself so volatile and the gold price manipulated by nay-saying western authorities. To further illustrate these points, Figure 2 shows the dollar’s volatility in terms of crude oil.

    Before the abandonment of Bretton Woods in 1971, the price of oil hardly changed. Since then, measured by gold the dollar has lost 98% of its purchasing power. Furthermore, the chart shows that it is the dollar which is extremely volatile and not oil, because the price of oil in gold is relatively constant (down only 20% from 1950), while in dollars it is up 33.6 times with some wild price swings along the way. Critics of measuring prices in gold ignore the fact that legal money is gold and not paper currencies or bank credit: attempts by governments and their epigones to persuade us otherwise are propaganda only. 

    Therefore, Glazyev should drop currencies from the proposed basket entirely and strive to either price a basket of non-seasonal commodities in gold, or alternatively simply reference the new currency to gold in a daily fix. And as the charts above confirm, there is little point in using a basket of commodities priced in dollars or gold when it is far simpler for the EAEU nations and for anyone else wishing to participate in the new trade currency to use a trade currency directly tied to the gold price. It would amount to a new Asian version of a Bretton Woods arrangement and would need no further adjustment.

    Attributing them to excessive credit, from recent statements by President Putin it is clear he has a better understanding of currencies and the west’s inflationary problems than western economists. Intellectually, he has long demonstrated an appreciation of the relationship between money, that is only gold, and currency and credit. His knowledge was further demonstrated by his insistence that the “unfriendlies” pay for energy in roubles, taking control of the media of energy exchange into Russia’s own hands and away from those of his enemies.

    In short, Putin appears to understand that gold is money and that the rest is unreliable, weaponizable, credit. So, why does he not just command a new trade currency to be created, backed by gold?

    Enter the new Moscow gold standard

    Logic suggests that a gold-backed currency will be the outcome of Glazyev’s EAEU committee’s trade currency deliberations after all, because of a subsequent announcement from Moscow concerning a new Russian bullion market. 

    In accordance with western sanctions, the London Bullion Market refused to accept Russian mined and processed gold. It was then natural for Russia to propose a new gold market based in Moscow with its own standards. It is equally sensible for Moscow to set up a price fixing committee, replicating that of the LBMA. But instead of it being the basis for a far larger unallocated gold deposit account offering by Russian and other banks, it will be a predominantly physical market. 

    Based in Moscow, with a new market called the Moscow International Precious Metals Exchange, the Moscow Gold Standard will incorporate some of the LBMA’s features, such as good delivery lists with daily, or twice daily fixings. The new exchange is therefore being promoted as a logical replacement for the LBMA.

    But could that be a cover, with the real objective being to provide a gold link to the new trade currency planned by Glazyev’s EAEU committee? Timing suggests that this may indeed be the case, but we will only know for sure as events unfold.

    If it is to be backed by gold, the considerations behind setting up a new trade currency are fairly straightforward. There is the Chinese one kilo bar four-nines standard, which is widely owned, has already been adopted throughout Asia, and is traded even on Comex. Given that China is Russia’s long-term partner, that is likely to be the standard unit. The adoption of the Chinese standard in the new Moscow exchange is logical, simplifying the relationship with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, and streamlining fungibility between contracts, arbitrage, and delivery.

    Geopolitics suggest that the simple proposition behind the establishment of a new Moscow exchange will fit in with a larger trans-Asia plan and is unlikely to move at the glacial pace of developments between Russia and China to which we have become accustomed. The gold question has become bound up in more rapid developments triggered by Russia’s belligerence over Ukraine, and the sanctions which quickly followed.

    There can be little doubt that this must be leading to a seismic shift in gold policy for the Russian Chinese partnership. The Chinese in particular have demonstrated an unhurried patience that befits a nation with a sense of its long history and destiny. Putin is more of a one-man act. Approaching seventy years old, he cannot afford to be so patient and is showing a determination to secure a legacy in his lifetime as a great Russian leader. While China has made the initial running with respect to gold policy, Putin is now pushing the agenda more forcefully.

    Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the strategy was to let the west make all the geopolitical and financial mistakes. For Putin perhaps, the lesson of history was informed by Napoleon’s march to the gates of Moscow, his pyrrhic victory at Borodino, and his defeat by the Russian winter. Hitler made the same mistake with Operation Barbarossa. From Putin’s viewpoint, the lesson was clear — Russia’s enemies defeat themselves. It was repeated in Afghanistan, where the American-led NATO enemy was conquered by its own hubris without Putin having to lift so much as a finger. That is why Russia is Mackinder’s Pivot Area of the World Island. It cannot be attacked by navies, and supply line requirements for armies make Russia’s defeat well-nigh impossible

    Following the Ukraine invasion, Putin’s financial strategy has become more aggressive, and is potentially at odds with China’s economic policy. Being cut off from western markets, Putin is now proactive, while China which exports goods to them probably remains more cautious. But China knows that western capitalism bears the seeds of its own destruction, which would mean the end of the dollar and the other major fiat currencies. An economic policy based on exports to capitalistic nations would be a passing phase. 

    China’s gold policy was aways an insurance policy against a dollar collapse, realising that she must not be blamed for the west’s financial destruction by announcing a gold standard for the yen in advance of it. It would be a nuclear equivalent in a financial war, only an action to be taken as a last resort.

    Developments in Russia have changed that. It is clear to the Russians, and most likely the Chinese, that credit inflation is now pushing the dollar into a currency crisis in the next year or two. Preparations to protect the rouble and the yuan from the final collapse of the dollar, long taught in Marxist universities as inevitable, must assume a new urgency. It would be logical to start with a new trade settlement currency as a testbed for national currencies in Asia, and for it to be set up in such a way that it would permit member states to adopt gold standards for their own currencies as well.

    Possession of bullion is key

    The move away from western fiat currencies to gold backed Asian currencies requires significant gold bullion ownership at the least. The only members, associates, and dialog partners of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the EAEU whose central banks have not increased their gold reserves since the Lehman failure when the credit expansion of dollars began in earnest, are minor states. Since then, between them they have added 4,645 tonnes to their reserves, while all the other central banks account for only 781 tonnes of additional gold reserves.

    But central bank reserves are only part of the story, with nations running other, often secret national bullion accounts not included in reserves. The appendix to this article shows why and how China almost certainly accumulated an undeclared quantity of bullion, likely to be in the region of 25,000 tonnes by 2002 and probably more since. 

    Since 2002, when the Shanghai Gold Exchange opened and China’s citizens were permitted for the first time to own gold, gold delivered into public hands has totalled a further amount of over 20,000 tonnes. While the bulk of this is jewellery and some has been returned to the SGE as scrap for re-refining, it is clear that the authorities have encouraged Chinese citizens to retain gold for themselves, which traditionally has been real money in China.

    According to Simon Hunt of Simon Hunt Strategic Services, as well as declared reserves of 2,301 tonnes Russia also holds gold bullion in its Gosfund (the State Fund of Russia) bringing its holdings up to 12,000 tonnes. This is significantly greater than the 8,133 tonnes declared by the US Treasury, over which there are widespread doubts concerning the veracity of its true quantity.

    Obviously, the Asian partnership has a very different view of gold from the American hegemon. Furthermore, in recent months evidence has confirmed what gold bugs have claimed all along, that the Bank for International Settlements and major bullion operators such as JPMorgan Chase have indulged in a price suppression scheme to discourage gold ownership and to divert bullion demand into synthetic unallocated accounts. 

    The secrecy that surrounds reporting of gold reserves to the IMF raises further suspicions over the true position. Furthermore, there are leases and swaps between central banks, the BIS, and bullion dealers that lead to double counting and bullion recorded as being in possession of governments and their central banks but being held by other parties.

    As long ago as 2002 when the gold price was about $300 per ounce, Frank Veneroso, who as a noted analyst spent considerable time and effort identifying central bank swaps and leases, concluded that anything between 10,000 and 15,000 tonnes of government and central bank gold reserves were out on lease or swapped — that is up to almost half the total official global gold reserves at that time. His entire speech is available on the Gold Antitrust Action Committee website, but this is the introduction to his reasoning:

    “Let’s begin with an explanation of gold banking and gold derivatives.

    “It is a simple, simple idea. Central banks have bars of gold in a vault. It’s their own vault, it’s the Bank of England’s vault, it’s the New York Fed’s vault. It costs them money for insurance – it costs them money for storage— and gold doesn’t pay any interest. They earn interest on their bills of sovereigns, like US Treasury Bills. They would like to have a return as well on their barren gold, so they take the bars out of the vault and they lend them to a bullion bank. Now the bullion bank owes the central bank gold—physical gold—and pays interest on this loan of perhaps 1%. What do these bullion bankers do with this gold? Does it sit in their vault and cost them storage and insurance? No, they are not going to pay 1% for a gold loan from a central bank and then have a negative spread of 2% because of additional insurance and storage costs on their physical gold. They are intermediaries—they are in the business of making money on financial intermediation. So they take the physical gold and they sell it spot and get cash for it. They put that cash on deposit or purchase a Treasury Bill. Now they have a financial asset—not a real asset—on the asset side of their balance sheet that pays them interest—6% against that 1% interest cost on the gold loan to the central bank. What happened to that physical gold? Well, that physical gold was Central Bank bars, and it went to a refinery and that refinery refined it, upgraded it, and poured it into different kinds of bars like kilo bars that go to jewellery factories who then make jewellery out of it. That jewellery gets sold to individuals. That’s where those physical bars have wound up—adorning the women of the world…

    “We have gotten, albeit crude, estimates of gold borrowings from the official sector from probably more than 1/3 of all the bullion banks. We went to bullion dealers, and we asked, “Are these guys major bullion bankers, medium bullion bankers, or small-scale bullion bankers?” We classified them accordingly and from that we have extrapolated a total amount of gold lending from our sample. That exercise has pointed to exactly the same conclusion as all of our other evidence and inference—i.e., something like 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes of borrowed gold.”

    Veneroso’s findings were stunning. But two decades later, we have no idea of the current position. The market has changed substantially since 2002, and today it is thought that swaps and leases are often by book entry, rather than physical delivery of bullion into markets. But the implications are clear: if Russia or China cared to declare their true position and made a move towards backing their currencies with gold or linking them to gold credibly, it would be catastrophic for the dollar and western fiat currencies generally. It would amount to a massive bear squeeze on the west’s longstanding gold versus fiat policy. And remember, gold is money, and the rest is credit, as John Pierpont Morgan said in 1912 in evidence to Congress. He was not stating his opinion, but a legal fact.

    In a financial crisis, the accumulated manipulation of bullion markets since the 1970s is at significant risk of becoming unwound. The imbalance in bullion holdings between the Russian Chinese camp and the west would generate the equivalent of a financial nuclear event. This is why it is so important to understand that instead of being a longstop insurance policy against the Marxist prediction of capitalism’s ultimate failure, it appears that the combination of planning for a new trade currency for Asian nations centred on members of the EAEU, coinciding with the introduction of a new Moscow-based bullion standard, is now pre-empting financial developments in the west. That being the case, a financial nuclear bomb is close to being triggered.

    *  *  *

    Appendix

    China’s gold policy.

    China actually took its first deliberate step towards eventual domination of the gold market as long ago as June 1983, when regulations on the control of gold and silver were passed by the State Council. The following Articles extracted from the English translation set out the objectives very clearly:

    Article 1. These Regulations are formulated to strengthen control over gold and silver, to guarantee the State’s gold and silver requirements for its economic development and to outlaw gold and silver smuggling and speculation and profiteering activities.

     Article 3. The State shall pursue a policy of unified control, monopoly purchase and distribution of gold and silver. The total income and expenditure of gold and silver of State organs, the armed forces, organizations, schools, State enterprises, institutions, and collective urban and rural economic organizations (hereinafter referred to as domestic units) shall be incorporated into the State plan for the receipt and expenditure of gold and silver.

    Article 4. The People’s Bank of China shall be the State organ responsible for the control of gold and silver in the People’s Republic of China.

    Article 5. All gold and silver held by domestic units, with the exception of raw materials, equipment, household utensils and mementos which the People’s Bank of China has permitted to be kept, must be sold to the People’s Bank of China. No gold and silver may be personally disposed of or kept without authorization.

    Article 6. All gold and silver legally gained by individuals shall come under the protection of the State.

    Article 8. All gold and silver purchases shall be transacted through the People’s Bank of China. No unit or individual shall purchase gold and silver unless authorised or entrusted to do so by the People’s Bank of China.

    Article 12. All gold and silver sold by individuals must be sold to the People’s Bank of China.

    Article 25. No restriction shall be imposed on the amount of gold and silver brought into the People’s Republic of China, but declaration and registration must be made to the Customs authorities of the People’s Republic of China upon entry.

    Article 26. Inspection and clearance by the People’s Republic of China Customs of gold and silver taken or retaken abroad shall be made in accordance with the amount shown on the certificate issued by the People’s Bank of China or the original declaration and registration form made on entry. All gold and silver without a covering certificate or in excess of the amount declared and registered upon entry shall not be allowed to be taken out of the country.

    These articles make it clear that only the People’s Bank was authorised to acquire or sell gold on behalf of the state, without limitation, and that citizens owning or buying gold were not permitted to do so and must sell any gold in their possession to the People’s Bank.

    Additionally, China has deliberately developed her gold mine production regardless of cost, becoming the largest producer by far in the world.[ii] State-owned refineries process this gold along with doré imported from elsewhere. Virtually none of this gold leaves China, so that the gold owned today between the state and individuals continues to accumulate.

    The regulations quoted above formalised the State’s monopoly over all gold and silver which is exercised through the Peoples Bank, and they allow the free importation of gold and silver but keep exports under very tight control. The intent behind the regulations is not to establish or permit the free trade of gold and silver, but to control these commodities in the interest of the state.

    This being the case, the growth of Chinese gold imports recorded as deliveries to the public since 2002, when the Shanghai Gold Exchange was established and the public then permitted to buy gold, is only the more recent evidence of a deliberate act of policy embarked upon thirty-nine years ago.  China had been accumulating gold for nineteen years before she allowed her own nationals to buy when private ownership was finally permitted. Furthermore, the bullion was freely available, because in seventeen of those years, gold was in a severe bear market fuelled by a combination of supply from central bank disposals, leasing, and increasing mine production, all of which I estimate totalled about 59,000 tonnes. The two largest buyers for all this gold for much of the time were private buyers in the Middle East and China’s government, with additional demand identified from India and Turkey. The breakdown from these sources and the likely demand are identified in the table below:

    In another context, the cost of China’s 25,000 tonnes of gold equates to roughly 10% of her exports over the period, and the eighties and early nineties in particular also saw huge capital inflows when multinational corporations were building factories in China. However, the figure for China’s gold accumulation is at best informed speculation. But given the determination of the state to acquire gold expressed in the 1983 regulations and by its subsequent actions, it is clear China had deliberately accumulated a significant undeclared stockpile by 2002. 

    So far, China’s long-term plans for the acquisition of gold appear to have achieved some important objectives. To date, additional deliveries to the public through the SGE now total over 20,000 tonnes.

    China’s motives

    China’s motives for taking control of the gold bullion market have almost certainly evolved. The regulations of 1983 make sense as part of a forward-looking plan to ensure that some of the benefits of industrialisation would be accumulated as a risk-free national asset. This reasoning is similar to that of the Arab nations capitalising on the oil-price bonanza only ten years earlier, which led them to accumulate their hoard, mainly held in private as opposed to government hands, for the benefit of future generations. However, as time passed the world has changed substantially both economically and politically.

    2002 was a significant year for China, when geopolitical considerations entered the picture. Not only did the People’s Bank establish the Shanghai Gold Exchange to facilitate deliveries to private investors, but this was the year the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation formally adopted its charter. This merger of security and economic interests with Russia has bound Russia and China together with a number of resource-rich Asian states into an economic bloc. When India, Iran, Mongolia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan join (as they now have or are already committed to do), the SCO will cover more than half the world’s population. And inevitably the SCO’s members are looking for an alternative trade settlement system to using the US dollar. 

    At some stage China with her SCO partner, Russia, might force the price of gold higher as part of their currency strategy. You can argue this from an economic point of view on the basis that possession of properly priced gold will give her a financial dominance over global trade at a time when we are trashing our fiat currencies, or more simply that there’s no point in owning an asset and suppressing its value for ever. From 2002 there evolved a geopolitical argument: both China and Russia having initially wanted to embrace American and Western European capitalism no longer sought to do so, seeing us as soft enemies instead. The Chinese public were then encouraged, even by public service advertising, to buy gold, helping to denude the west of her remaining bullion stocks and to provide market liquidity in China.

    What is truly amazing is that the western economic and political establishment have dismissed the importance of gold and ignored all the warning signals. They do not seem to realise the power they have given China and Russia to create financial chaos as a consequence of gold price suppression. If they do so, which seems to be only a matter of time, then London’s fractional reserve system of unallocated gold accounts would simply collapse, leaving Shanghai as the only major physical market. 

    This is probably the final link in China’s long-standing gold strategy, and through it a planned domination of the global economy in partnership with Russia and the other SCO nations. But as noted above, recent events have brought this outcome forward.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 23:40

  • DoD To Boost Ammunition Production After Ukraine War Depletes US Stockpiles
    DoD To Boost Ammunition Production After Ukraine War Depletes US Stockpiles

    The Pentagon needs to rapidly increase munitions purchases if they want to be prepared for a shooting war with Russia and/or China after depleting stockpiles due to large transfers to Ukraine. 

    Since the start of the war, the US has transferred 806,000 shells of 155mm howitzers and 108,000 shells for 105mm guns, according to the Defense Department figures. That’s nearly one million shells in six months, and the figure does not factor in missiles and other precision-guided rockets.

    As of June, Ukrainian forces fired about 6,000 shells per day at Russian forces. Artillery in warfare is very important, but there’s no way Ukraine can manufacture such shells at scale, so the US is quickly burning through its ammunition stockpile. 

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    US defense officials told WSJ that stockpiles of 155mm shells are “uncomfortably low” after months and months of arming Ukraine

    The Pentagon has been slow to replenish its arsenal and may jeopardize readiness for a broader conflict with top superpowers, such as Russia and China. 

    That’s why Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante revealed Friday that the US plans to increase the production capacity of 155mm ammunition from 14,000 to 36,000 shells per month over the next three years. 

    “Right now, the 155 [mm] munitions are [produced] at about 14,400 a month, and we have plans working with the contractor to get that in increments ultimately up to 36,000 a month by about three years. It’s going to be in steps,” LaPlante said during a press conference.

    The Army has requested lawmakers on Capitol Hill for an extra $500 million a year in upgrade efforts for ammunition plants, WSJ said, quoting defense officials. 

    Earlier this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced another $2 billion in military weapons for Ukraine, putting the total dollar amount American taxpayers have shelled out for the war at approximately $15 billion under the Biden administration. 

    A looming ammunition shortage emerges as the Biden administration has become the military-industrial complex’s best ‘salesperson’ (to be politically correct). Biden’s weapon deals with Ukraine are so hot that the US is also “running low” on anti-tank missiles. 

    Congrats to Biden and the Democrats for empowering the military-industrial complex and arming one of the world’s most corrupt countries as billions of US taxpayers’ dollars slide into a black hole in Eastern Europe. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 23:20

  • Expert Warns US Descending Into 'Anarchy' Amid Heightened Distrust Of DOJ, Law Enforcement
    Expert Warns US Descending Into ‘Anarchy’ Amid Heightened Distrust Of DOJ, Law Enforcement

    Authored by John Ransom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A legal expert has warned that the country risks descending into “anarchy” amid escalating criticism of federal law enforcement bodies in the wake of the FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago.

    Attorney General nominee Merrick Garland is sworn-in during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee in the Hart Senate Office Building on Feb. 22, 2021. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

    Facing heated allegations of bias, the Department of Justice (DOJ) on Aug. 30 banned political activity of all non-career, political appointees at agency.

    We must do all we can to maintain public trust and ensure that politics—both in fact and appearance—does not compromise or affect the integrity of our work,” Garland wrote in a memo to DOJ employees announcing the ban against going to political events before the mid-term elections.

    The ban came as public distrust of federal law enforcement agencies have trended to low levels, with 53 percent of voters agreeing with a statement that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is “Joe Biden’s Gestapo,” according to a survey by pollster Rasmussen conducted on Aug. 15 and 16.

    The survey of 1,000 U.S. likely voters also showed that 44 percent of those polled now view the FBI less favorably after the agency conducted a raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home and club last month over documents the government alleges Trump doesn’t have permission to hold.

    Overall, only 36 percent of likely voters disagree with the description of the FBI as a “Gestapo” that benefits President Joe Biden.

    The DOJ ban also came a few days before Biden took to the TV airwaves with rhetoric attacking Trump-supporting Republicans.

    In a Sept. 1 speech given in the shadow of Philadelphia’s Liberty Hall, Biden warned against “MAGA Republicans” who “live not in the light of truth but in the shadow of lies.”

    ‘Spiraling to Anarchy’

    “We are spiraling to anarchy, and we have to take the politics out of the positions by people of power within our legislative and executive branch,” attorney Sandra Spurgeon, who has litigated hundreds of cases to a verdict, told The Epoch Times.

    Spurgeon, who supports the DOJ ban, said that Garland had no choice but to do something to try to restore the public’s respect for law enforcement. She warned that the leadership of the DOJ and the FBI “live a very different life than you and I do.”

    “They don’t think about the same things on the level that we would think of things because they have been elevated into a state where they have lost the appreciation of impartiality,” Surgeon added about top government officials targeted in the ban.

    And quite frankly, they just don’t care,” she added.

    And it’s that out-of-touch behavior by our political class that has caused the crisis that necessitated the DOJ ban, one former U.S. special agent told The Epoch Times.

    “The issue is that a Biden appointee, the U.S. Attorney for the state of Massachusetts, showed up at a Joe Biden fundraising event where First Lady Jill Biden was appearing,” Eric Caron, who previously worked as an agent for the U.S. Treasury and for the Department of Homeland Security said about the impetus for the political ban by the Attorney General.

    She even used a government vehicle,” to get to the event, Caron added, all of which could be a violation of the Hatch Act ban on electioneering.

    The electioneering claim is under investigation by the U.S. Office of Special Counsel after the case was referred to the DOJ by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) after Rollins, who had a fractious confirmation process, showed up to the Biden fundraiser.

    Politicization Claims

    Others have wondered if the ban, as well as another DOJ memo issued on the same day reiterating a policy restricting communications with Congress could be an attempt to intimidate so-called whistleblowers within the FBI and DOJ.

    “Ever since we told you that FBI whistleblowers had begun contacting Members of Congress to report on political pressure from high-ranking FBI officials to falsely label some investigations and run interference on others to serve a political agenda, Attorney General Merrick Garland has been very busy trying to shut them down, and anyone else who might expose what’s going on,” noted the American Center for Law and Justice, run by former Trump attorney Jay Sekulow.

    But even after discounting the possible partisan motives behind the moves, the gesture will be inadequate in regaining the trust and confidence of the American people, said one skeptic.

    Under Garland, there have been a number of highly publicized cases that seem to indicate extreme politicization in the DOJ, Mike Davis of the Article III Project (A3P), which promotes constitutionalist judges and the rule of law, told The Epoch Times.

    One such episode, according to Davis, included an October 2021 memo by Garland foreshadowing “a series of measures designed to address the rise in criminal conduct directed toward school personnel.”

    The DOJ memo came after the National School Boards Association, a key ally of the Democrats, wrote a letter to Biden, complaining that parents who showed up at school board meetings put school personnel “under an immediate threat” of violence. The association later apologized for the letter. Garland, later testifying at a House Judiciary Committee hearing, said that the DOJ hadn’t been told by the White House to issue the memo.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 23:00

  • Is A US Civil War On The Horizon?
    Is A US Civil War On The Horizon?

    In a recent response to the FBI’s recovering of classified documents from Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence, South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham predicted “riots in the streets” if the former president is indicted over his retention of the materials after leaving the White House.

    As Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, there have been rumblings of warning signs from some observers for some time that the U.S. could get dragged into a civil war if it continues on its route of growing political and social division – concerns only amplified in the wake of the January 6 storming of the Capitol.

    By now, the impression that a civil war could be brewing has spread to the general public, and as a new Gallup poll indicates, to a large extent.

    Infographic: Is a U.S. Civil War on the Horizon? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    When looking at all adult U.S. citizens responding to the survey, 43 percent said they think that a civil war is at least somewhat likely in their country in the coming decade.

    As the chart above shows, those identifying as ‘strong Democrats’ were slightly more optimistic overall, but 40 percent still held this position. A majority of ‘strong Republicans’ on the other hand said they think civil war is coming – 54 percent.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 22:40

  • Law-Abiding Gun Owners Ignored By Media, Maligned By Politicians
    Law-Abiding Gun Owners Ignored By Media, Maligned By Politicians

    Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClear Wire (emphasis ours),

    In celebration of New York’s new gun control law taking effect on September 1, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul claimed: “This whole concept that a good guy with a gun will stop the bad guys with a gun, it doesn’t hold up. And the data bears this out, so that theory is over.”

    At the same press conference, New York City Mayor Eric Adams warned that more concealed carry permits might lead to an increase in violence at Times Square, even though Times Square remains a gun-free zone for permit holders.

    This is a typical response from Democrats. After each mass public shooting, Democratic elected officials push for more gun control. They ignore examples, even those that generated significant public attention, in which armed bystanders saved many lives. They also disregard a grim aspect of such crimes: Most mass shooters want to commit suicide in a way that will gain the most media coverage. The more people they kill, the more coverage they will get.

    The shooters may be callous and crazy, but they are rational enough to realize that they can kill more people if their victims are defenseless.

    Like so many other mass public shooters, the Buffalo shooter wrote in his manifesto: “Areas where CCW permits are low may also be good areas of attack.” The national media refuses to report other explicit statements by attackers. Nor do they report the fact that 94% of mass public shootings occur in places where civilians are banned from having guns.

    Surveys show that criminologists and economists had the same top four preferred policies for stopping mass public shootings. On a 1-to-10 scale, American criminologists rated the following policies most highly: Allow K-12 teachers to carry concealed handguns (6.0), allow military personnel to carry on military bases (5.6), encourage the elimination of gun-free zones (5.3), and relax federal regulations that pressure companies to create gun-free zones (5.0).

    The top four policies for economists were the same, but in a different order: Encourage the elimination of gun-free zones (7.9), relax federal regulations that pressure companies to create gun-free zones (7.8), allow K-12 teachers to carry concealed handguns (7.7), and allow military personnel to carry on military bases (7.7).

    As important as police are to fighting crime, increased policing didn’t make the top of the list. That’s because stopping mass public shootings is a uniquely difficult challenge. For police, wearing a uniform is often akin to wearing a neon sign saying, “Shoot me first.” That makes officers easy targets for attackers. The benefit of concealed carry is that the attackers won’t know who is a threat to them.

    A deputy in uniform has an extremely difficult job in stopping these attacks,” said Sarasota County, Florida, Sheriff Kurt Hoffman. “These terrorists have huge strategic advantages in determining the time and place of attacks. They can wait for a deputy to leave the area, or pick an undefended location. Even when police or deputies are in the right place at the right time, those in uniform who can be readily identified as guards may as well be holding up neon signs saying, ‘Shoot me first.’ My deputies know that we cannot be everywhere.”

    Given how infrequently the news media covers defensive gun uses, it isn’t surprising that Gov. Hochul believes that defensive gun uses are rare. But survey estimates show on average that Americans use guns defensively about 2 million times a year. According to academic estimates, defensive gun uses – including instances when guns are simply shown to deter a crime – are four to five times more common than gun crimes.

    Hochul also worries about permit holders themselves committing crime, but her fears are misplaced. New York doesn’t provide data on the rate at which permit holders have their permits revoked, but we do have that data for other states. In the 19 states with comprehensive data, the average revocation rate for any reason is one-tenth of 1%. Typically, permit revocations occur because someone moved, died, or forgot to bring a permit while carrying. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of firearms-related violations at one-twelfth the rate of police officers.

    The governor might also be surprised to learn that the general public disagrees with her. An early July survey by the Trafalgar Group showed a plurality of American general election voters believe that armed citizens are the most effective element in protecting you and your family in the case of a mass shooting. First on the list was “armed citizens” at 42%, followed by “local police” (25%) and “federal agents” (10%).

    Police are essential to keeping the peace and bringing criminals to justice, but in most cases they can’t directly protect people. That’s why Gov. Hochul owes the residents of her state the chance to protect themselves.

    John R. Lott Jr. is a contributor to RealClearInvestigations, focusing on voting and gun rights. His articles have appeared in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, USA Today, and Chicago Tribune. Lott is an economist who has held research and/or teaching positions at the University of Chicago, Yale University, Stanford, UCLA, Wharton, and Rice.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 22:20

  • Wells Fargo Screws Sex Workers, Cancels Accounts Over 'Risks'
    Wells Fargo Screws Sex Workers, Cancels Accounts Over ‘Risks’

    Wells Fargo may have had no problem scamming clients into accounts without consent (until they got caught and were fined $185 million), but when it comes to sex workers, the bank is suddenly pious.

    As Rolling Stone reports, sex workers across the country are reporting that their Wells Fargo accounts have been terminated with no explanation – aside from referencing “ongoing reviews of its account relationships in connection with the Bank’s responsibilities to manage risks,” effective immediately.

    In the letters, which are dated August 25 and copies of which were provided to Rolling Stone, Wells Fargo offers zero explanation for the decision to terminate the relationship with these customers. The letter says that the bank “performs ongoing reviews of its account relationships in connection with the Bank’s responsibilities to manage risks in its banking operations,” and that the recipient’s accounts will be closed “as a result of this review.” Wells Fargo did not immediately respond to a request for comment. -Rolling Stone

    30-year customer Alana Evans, president of the Adult Performance Artists’ Guild (APAG) says that she’s had no prior issues with the bank. In a Sept. 2 video posted to Twitter, she said: “I don’t bounce checks, I’ve never done anything bad with my bank account, I don’t have fraud alerts or do chargebacks,” adding “A bank that I’ve done business with for 30 years decided that I’m not worthy of a relationship with them.”

    “How am I supposed to pay my bills? How am I supposed to get paid?” she  continued.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe owners of Las Vegas-based porn production company, YummyGirl Studios, were also terminated as clients by the bank. Spike Irons and Sofie Marie received a letter dated Aug. 25, which said they had until Oct. 13 to move their money – shortly after cashing a check from Hustler for Marie’s modeling. The couple primarily used the account to pay out independent contractors, including actors and production staffers.

    Sofie Marie (YouTube screenshot)

    They have applied to two other banks and been rejected, and have no idea how they’ll pay their staff according to the report.

    “We’re a tax-paying business that has been operating consistently since 2016,” said Irons. “Tell me how we are high-risk. Wouldn’t they have dumped us years ago?”

    Another adult content creator, Leia Way, was also canceled by Wells Fargo – despite telling Rolling Stone that she’s been a member in good standing for six years, and had been using the account to process wire transfer payments from an affiliate marketing program linked to a cam site.

    “In this line of work, the feeling of being discriminated never really goes away,” she said. “With that feeling, I am always expecting the other shoe to drop.”

    She’s been forced to find another bank as well.

    “To have a business terminate your relationship when you’ve done nothing wrong or illegal, it sucks,” she added.

    Even a former adult performer, ‘Raylene,’ had her Wells Fargo account terminated despite being out of the industry for a decade. The only activity related to the adult industry are residual payments from cam site Streammate.

    “It’s kind of messed up,” she said. “If I feel unsafe in a financial institution, what’s next? Did they check my background? Why would one or two deposits a year flag my account? I would feel better if someone would give me a straight answer.”

    The fact that she has been out of the industry for so long, she says, makes her even more disquieted about Wells Fargo’s decision. “You feel powerless over the external forces, over corporate and religious America, trying to exclude certain groups from living their lives in a free way,” she says. -Rolling Stone

    According to the report, this isn’t the first time banks have punished people in the adult industry for seemingly no reason. In 2014, JPMorgan Chase shuttered a slew of adult performers’ accounts without explanation – including  Teagan Presley and Keiran Lee.

    What gives?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 22:00

  • History Repeats: Abandoning Sound Money Leads To Tyranny And Ruin
    History Repeats: Abandoning Sound Money Leads To Tyranny And Ruin

    Submitted by Jp Cortez, Sound Money Defense League,

    Money is one of the most misunderstood topics of our time, and we’re seeing the implications of this play out every day.

    To understand money, one first must first understand that human beings have always been incentivized to participate in exchange. If humans could not, or did not, trade, the majority of people would die young: whether by starvation, disease, or exposure to the elements.

    The survivors would be left with an extremely low standard of living; not a world any of us would want to live in. This means that exchange is a necessary condition, not only of our economy, but of human flourishing.

    Origins of Money

    Before there was money, there was barter (also known as direct exchange) – a system in which every good is traded directly against every other good.

    A small island economy could function this way: a couple of coconuts traded for fishing line, or a bushel of bananas in exchange for bamboo with which to build a shelter.

    As Tho Bishop from the Mises Institute illustrates, imagine that a farmer wants to buy a pair of boots, so he visits the town cobbler and tries to trade a dozen eggs in exchange. However, the cobbler in town doesn’t want eggs. The cobbler might want beef, but the farmer isn’t willing to slaughter his cow for boots.

    A trade where both parties are happy is now difficult. It’s easy to see how unmanageable this system is as populations grow, and as needs and wants expand.

    Let’s revisit our farmer: Instead of offering eggs, he realizes that what the cobbler really wants is butter. So he goes out and trades for butter, and then uses that butter to trade for boots. If enough people also want butter, our farmer may buy more—not to use it, but to exchange it for other goods and services. This is called indirect exchange.

    Many goods throughout history, with varying degrees of effectiveness, have filled the role of “butter.” Salt, wampum, and tobacco have all been used as money, just to name a few. However, gold and silver emerged as universally accepted monies by the free market because of their durability, transportability, fungibility, and scarcity.

    Emerged is the key. The process through which money is “created” is not one of central planning or of creation at all, but rather one in which money is “discovered” by markets.

    Gold and silver have other qualities that make them a sound form of money.

    These precious metals are relatively scarce, used across a variety of industries, and are aesthetically beautiful.

    They are fungible – an ounce of silver is, for all intents and purposes, uniform.

    They are divisible. If you split one ounce of gold into two, the two halves are of equal value that add up to the value of the whole.

    Compare this to diamonds. They may have some qualities of a store of wealth over time, but each diamond is unique and cutting one in half will reduce its value by far more than half.

    This process—the cumulative development of a medium of exchange on the free market—is how societies throughout history chose reliable forms of money and moved away from barter, explains Bishop.

    However, not all forms of money have stood the test of time.

    What Is Sound Money?

    Sound money carries no counterparty risk (unlike a banknote, it is not simultaneously someone else’s obligation). And it retains relatively stable purchasing power over time.

    Sound money has two pretty simple value propositions. The first is that sound money protects capital and creates stability. People can accumulate savings and transmit value over time, allowing them to better plan, save, and invest for the future.

    The second is that sound money acts as a defense against excess debt accumulation and an ever-growing government.

    The current system of fiat money issued by central banks enables unlimited deficit spending by government. Inflation allows the costs to be socialized across all holders of the currency by slowly and steadily stealing everyone’s purchasing power.

    From decade-long wars, to wasteful domestic programs, the ability to create currency endlessly has empowered the government to spend in ways that it would not be able to if not for a printing press.

    The Decline of Sound Money in the United States

    The Framers of the United States Constitution understood the importance of sound money, and that’s why they codified it. Article 1, section 10 states: “No State shall emit bills of credit…[or] make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts.”

    However, less than a hundred years into the American experiment, the Civil War began. Wars are expensive, and the federal government, which had a policy to only print notes that were backed by an equal amount of gold and silver, was running low on specie.

    Lincoln and his money managers knew citizens would be wary of unbacked paper notes. After all, the Constitutional Convention that took place less than 75 years prior had overwhelmingly rejected paper money based, in part, on recent experiences with it.

    George Washington wrote that paper money was “wicked.” James Madison wrote it was “unjust” and “unconstitutional.”

    Even though it was unconstitutional, Lincoln’s government issued unbacked paper money, called Greenbacks.

    But how could he get people to accept them in exchange for their goods and services? The answer is the use of government force through what are known as legal tender laws.

    It’s worth noting that the government expected the plebeians to use and accept this fake money, but any customs duties or other taxes still had to be paid with real gold or silver coin.

    Legal tender is a stamp of approval by the federal government that magically turns strips of unbacked paper into money people must accept, if begrudgingly at first. By the end of the war, nearly half a billion unbacked notes had been issued.

    As always happens with paper money, Greenbacks lost the overwhelming majority of their purchasing power before the country went back on a gold standard.

    Over the next 150 years, though, the steady destruction of sound money continued.

    The 20th Century Brought the Outright Destruction of Sound Money

    In 1913, Congress created the Federal Reserve System (which has since served to devalue the Federal Reserve Note more than 97%, despite its mandate to maintain price stability).

    Then came an income tax, gold confiscation by executive order, the abrogation of gold clause contracts, and ultimately the complete severance of any tie between gold and the Federal Reserve Note in 1971.

    What came next surprises no one: An explosion of government spending brings us to today.

    Biden administration bureaucrats face no constraints on their borrowing and bailout schemes. America is now well down the road to financial insolvency, shouldering more than $30 trillion in debt.

    History teaches us no government can ultimately escape the consequences of removing sound money from its monetary system. Absent the constraints on ever-expanding fiat money supply imposed by gold and silver, the current inflation problem can only worsen.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 21:40

  • Zoo In China Says Endangered Species Are Starving Amidst Lockdowns, Pleads Local Authorities For Food
    Zoo In China Says Endangered Species Are Starving Amidst Lockdowns, Pleads Local Authorities For Food

    No supply chain is being spared from the effects of China’s continued Covid lockdowns – and that includes food for endangered species. 

    While the rest of the world worries about whether or not it’ll be able to get its Starbucks coffee the way they still like it in the morning or whether supplies of oatmilk are once again running thin, China has been experiencing shortages of its own. 

    Among the more obscure examples is the case unfolding at the Guizhou Wildlife Park, where FT says there has been an “urgent plea for live chickens and fish, as well as steamed buns and frozen crabs” for use in feeding “endangered Siberian, white Bengal and South China tigers, as well as pandas, crocodiles and zebras.”

    The owner of the park sent a letter to local authorities stating: “Almost 70 per cent of the animals kept in the park are protected species, but at present, the park’s feed stockpiles are far from enough.” 

    The letter also asked for “stocks of sweet potato, peppers and frozen shrimp tails,” according to FT, who noted that there are still about 50 cities, with a combined total of about 290 million people, on lockdown. 

    The park said it needed to keep at least 10 days of live food for some of its animals. The park’s shortages of a microcosm of similar fears about food supply and security returning throughout the country. 

    Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist, told FT: “Over the past week, the overall Covid situation deteriorated considerably in China. What is becoming increasingly concerning is that Covid hotspots are continuing to shift away from several remote regions and cities — with seemingly less economic significance to the country — to provinces that matter much more to China’s national economy.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 21:20

  • Snyder: What In The World Is Wrong With This Country?
    Snyder: What In The World Is Wrong With This Country?

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    Just when it seems like we can’t possibly go any lower, we always manage to top ourselves.  In the old days, every once in a while I would come across a story that would make me shake my head in disbelief because it was just so absurd.  Now it is happening on a daily basis.  In this article I am going to share some examples with you.  I realize that some of these things are difficult to believe, but all of them are true.  Our country really is coming apart at the seams right in front of our eyes, and the pace of our national decline only seems to be accelerating.  If we are not able to turn our cultural decay around, eventually we will not have a country at all.

    Let me start with a new law which will go into effect in Illinois on January 1st.

    From that point forward, those guilty of second-degree murder, kidnapping, burglary and arson will always be released without having to post any bail at all

    When a new Illinois law takes effect next year, it will do away with the cash bail system in the state, meaning suspects charged with felonies, including second-degree murder, aggravated battery, and arson, will be released without bail.

    The Counter Signal reports the Safety, Accountability, Fairness and Equity-Today Act, also called the SAFE-T Act, would end cash bail and includes 12 non-detainable offenses, second-degree murder, aggravated battery, and arson without bail, as well as drug-induced homicide, kidnapping, burglary, robbery, intimidation, aggravated DUI, aggravated fleeing and eluding, drug offenses and threatening a public official.

    When the law takes effect on Jan. 1, 2023, criminals charged with the crimes mentioned above will be released without bail.

    How many hardened criminals do you think will actually show up for their trials?

    I am sure that there will be a few.

    Of course many of our “woke judges” are doing their very best to make sure that many violent criminals never pay the price for their crimes even if they do stand trial.

    In California, a judge recently granted a mistrial to one defendant just because he didn’t get a good night of sleep the night before

    A California judge, who hails from a powerful Democrat family who endorsed LA DA George Gascon, granted a mistrial for a man facing life in prison because he was sleepy.

    The alleged criminal apparently did not get a good night’s rest before the trial after spending the night in a cell without a bed or blanket.

    Seriously?

    So now this violent criminal is back on the streets even though he pointed a gun in the face of a female fast food worker and threatened to blow her brains out

    Vamazae Elgin Banks, 24, appeared in court after threatening a McDonald’s worker with a gun before stealing less than $100.

    Court records accused Banks of telling the cashier at the fast food joint that he would kill her if she didn’t produce the cash quickly enough, allegedly telling her ‘hurry up or I’ll blow your brains out!’

    Our system of justice is systematically being destroyed.

    But many Americans simply don’t care because they are drugged out of their minds.

    The United States has the biggest problem with legal drugs on the entire planet, and it also has the biggest problem with illegal drugs on the entire planet.

    When I saw the following story, I thought that it perfectly summed up where we are as a nation today…

    A speeding woman is accused of driving under the influence of cocaine and alcohol when she crashed into another car, killing its driver who was under the influence of methamphetamine, police said.

    Summer Butler, 37, faces charges of DUI resulting in death, reckless driving and being in possession of a controlled substance in connection with the fatal crash in January, court documents obtained by the 8 News Now I-Team said.

    At this point, it seems like almost everyone is an addict, and that includes many of our government officials.  Here is just one example

    A Louisiana state official was arrested for allegedly buying drugs from a drug dealer outside of a fast food chain on Tuesday.

    Bridgette Hull, 37, serves as the executive secretary for the Louisiana State Board of Private Security Examiners. She was purchasing drugs from dealer Steven McCarthy, who was under surveillance, when a Louisiana Attorney General Office employee recognized him at a Livingston Parish restaurant.

    Hull was arrested onsite, but McCarthy fled the scene after back up was called – resulting in a pursuit. He later crashed into another car and was arrested.

    If we would secure our borders, we could at least reduce the flow of illegal drugs into this country.

    But the Biden administration refuses to do that.

    And so the worst drug crisis in all of U.S. history will continue to escalate, and substances that are laced with fentanyl will continue to kill countless numbers of our young people

    San Diego and Imperial County comprise the epicenter of fentanyl drug trafficking in the United States, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ), which reported that seizures of fentanyl in San Diego were up 323% in FY2019-FY2021 and that fentanyl overdose deaths increased 2,375% in San Diego County between 2016 and 2021.

    “A decade ago, we didn’t even know about fentanyl, and now it’s a national crisis,” said U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of California Randy Grossman. “The amount of fentanyl we are seizing at the border is staggering. The number of fentanyl seizures and fentanyl-related deaths in our district are unprecedented.”

    If you are waiting for our national leaders to fix our growing problems, you are going to be waiting for a really, really long time.

    Every major decision they make seems to make things even worse, and the Biden administration keeps appointing extremely alarming individuals to top positions of power.

    In fact, Biden just appointed a “doctor” that is absolutely obsessed with pentagrams to be the National Monkeypox Response Deputy Coordinator.

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    So far, only a very small handful of conservatives are objecting to his appointment to such an important position.

    What in the world is wrong with this country?

    Have we gone completely and totally nuts?

    Perhaps we have.  At this point, close to one-fourth of all Democratic voters actually believe that men can get pregnant

    A poll conducted by WPA Intelligence has found that almost one quarter of Democratic voters believe that “some men can become pregnant.”

    Twenty-two percent of Democrats overall agreed with the statement.

    The poll also found that more women agreed with the statement, and an incredible 36 percent of white, college-educated female Democrats agreed.

    We aren’t just in a state of decline.

    The truth is that we are in a very advanced state of decline and the clock is ticking.

    If you love this nation, what has happened to us should deeply sadden you.

    We were once the greatest country on the entire planet, but now we are rapidly being destroyed from within.

    Please wake up America, because time to do anything about all of this is quickly running out.

    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 21:00

  • Sub-Million-Dollar Manhattan Condo Sales Slump Below Pre-COVID Trend As Affordability Crisis Rages
    Sub-Million-Dollar Manhattan Condo Sales Slump Below Pre-COVID Trend As Affordability Crisis Rages

    New Yorkers searching for a sign of relief from Manhattan’s red hot real estate market may finally be getting some good news. 

    The borough’s lower-end real estate market is beginning to cool after a year of bidding wars. Rising mortgage rates have made borrowing costs more expensive, curbing demand for prospective homebuyers with budgets under $1 million, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from brokerage Serhant. 

    Serhant found the number of listings under $500,000 that entered contracts in the three months beginning in June was 29% below the decade average leading up to the virus pandemic. The number of properties that went under contract between $500,000 to $1 million was 15% below the pre-Covid average. 

    Garrett Derderian, Serhant’s director of market intelligence, said buyers under a million dollars are more susceptible to rising mortgage rates. 

    “Even a one or two percentage point increase does make a difference to the borrowing power of those buyers,” Derderian said. 

    He described a housing affordability crisis: the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped from 3.2% starting the year to 6% in June. As of this week, Bankrate data shows the 30-year fixed mortgage is back above 6%. 

    We warned that skyrocketing mortgage rates would spark a housing affordability crisis as early as March. Fast forward to today, the affordability index crashed to three-decade lows. 

    The affordability crisis has pressured the lower-tier homebuyers first, as soaring borrowing costs may have ended the 2021 housing frenzy. 

    Transactions entering contract have been slowing compared to last year as buyers are deterred by higher rates, with Manhattan home deals dropping 39% in June, July and August from a year ago. Contracts signed were also 10% below the average levels for the same months during the decade before the pandemic hit. –Bloomberg 

    In June, July, and August, the median price of a Manhattan property was approximately $1,159,000 and only increased by 1% over the same period last year. At some point, the growth in home prices will stall and then reverse. Inventory is rising much quicker than last year. 

    Suppose mortgage rates remain elevated while inventory increases, along with high inflation eating away wages. In that case, there’s the possibility downward pressure could finally reverse prices. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 20:40

  • The FBI Is Hiding Epstein Records
    The FBI Is Hiding Epstein Records

    Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

    Your humble author, as promised, is involved in litigation to extract records from the federal government. It’s easy to talk about current events. The more difficult part is suing federal agencies for documentation of their wrongdoing.

    This involves initiating FOIA requests, which are rarely answered quickly or completely. Out of our 75+ FOIA requests from this past year, only one was answered quickly and fully. A small miracle.

    That was where we obtained CDC e-mails disclosing how they changed the definition of “vaccine” because of the efficacy problems with the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines. It’s a must-read if you haven’t seen it already (even if it got us wrongly flagged on the Carnegie Mellon University COVID-19 “misinformation” watchlist):

    Related: CDC Emails: Our Definition Of Vaccine is “Problematic”

    Then there are the records we must fight for.

    One development we can divulge is our effort to obtain the FBI’s records on Jeffrey Epstein. We made a simple request: hand over all FBI interviews with Epstein. We know those records are out there, as we were the first to report that Epstein had been a source for the FBI. (It was later confirmed that Epstein cooperated on a Bear Stearns investigation.)

    But we’re not convinced that was the only time Epstein spoke with the FBI. There were other hints and rumors that he worked with the US government to recover stolen funds. Thus the FOIA request.

    How did the FBI respond? Not by denying the existence of any records.

    Instead, the FBI is hiding behind FOIA’s law enforcement exemption, stating that the production of the Epstein records would interfere with ongoing law enforcement investigations:

    “The records responsive to your request are law enforcement records; there is a pending or prospective law enforcement proceeding relevant to these responsive records, and release of the information could reasonably be expected to interfere with enforcement proceedings.”

    We’re exceedingly doubtful that the release of the Epstein records would “interfere with enforcement proceedings.” Ghislaine Maxwell has been convicted and Epstein is dead. The only potential tie might be from a grand jury investigation into “other possible co-conspirators of Jeffrey Epstein.” But that was from the summer of 2020 and we rightly assume no charges were brought against whoever was being investigated.

    It’s more likely that the Epstein records might embarrass the FBI. The DOJ and FBI have been known to abuse the FOIA law enforcement exemption to hide investigative materials from public release. We’ve seen them do it. And they’re doing it again.

    But here’s the good news: the FBI’s response is a tacit admission that these records exist. We’ll fight for them. And we’ll get them.

    Stay tuned, and thanks for your support.

    Techno

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 20:20

  • Most Central Banks Have Raised Interest Rates In 2022
    Most Central Banks Have Raised Interest Rates In 2022

    In many countries, consumer prices are rising significantly. Central banks have the ability to counteract this via monetary policy means – by raising interest rates, thereby restricting access to credit and slowing down value creation.

    As of early September 2022, the majority of central banks worldwide had carried out rate hikes – some small and other rather large. As seen in data available on Trading Economics, a few countries also kept rates the same or even cut then, but these were often nations experiencing severe economic turmoil or those that are cut off from world markets to some extent.

    In the face of inflation, the European Central Bank raised rates for the first time in eleven years in July, but central bank interest rates still remain low in Europe.

    The United States’ Fed, which like the ECB stuck to zero interest for a long time, hiked rates more aggressively as the U.S. was affected by inflation more severely than many other countries. The upper end of the interest rate range stood at 2.5 percent in the U.S. most recently.

    Infographic: Most Central Banks Raised Interest Rates in 2022 | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Turkey and China are among the countries that cut in interest rates in 2022 and have a lower rate now than they had on Jan 1, 2022.

    China’s economy is not struggling with high inflation, but it is forecast to face a number of downside risks, including power shortages, virus outbreaks and weak consumption. According to Bloomberg, the People’s Bank of China will therefore presumably relax its monetary policy and support economic growth by enabling more liquidity.

    The monetary policy of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is criticized by Bloomberg experts and is described as “unorthodox”. In Turkey, consumer prices have risen by up to 19 percent. Turkey’s central bank recently lowered its key interest rate nevertheless. Erdogan is evidently of the opinion that high interest rates would conversely fuel inflation, while low ones would stimulate loans and investments.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 20:00

  • Australia's Left-Wing Greens Party Calls For Republic Hours After Queen's Passing
    Australia’s Left-Wing Greens Party Calls For Republic Hours After Queen’s Passing

    Authored by Daniel Teng via The Epoch Times,

    Members of the left-wing Australian Greens party have called for the country to “move forward” and embrace becoming a Republic—to sever Australia’s links with the Crown—just hours after news of the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

    Greens leader Adam Bandt wrote on Twitter, “Rest In Peace Queen Elizabeth II. Our thoughts are with her family and all who loved her.”

    “Now Australia must move forward. We need Treaty with First Nations people, and we need to become a Republic.”

    It is unclear what a “Treaty with First Nations” would entail.

    Fellow Greens MP David Shoebridge wrote a lengthier statement on Facebook saying the death of the monarch was a tragedy that “echoes well beyond the grief of one family.”

    But he also said her passing marked the “last echoes of an exploitative imperialism, which has caused and still causes grief for millions around the world.”

    “The transition of power we are watching unfold, through someone’s genetic inheritance, is beyond strange and seriously out of place in a democracy in 2022,” he said.

    “This is a moment we need to move towards Treaty and Republic. Two calls for Sovereignty that are deeply connected.”

    Indigenous leader Warren Mundine has criticised left-leaning political figures and commentators for propagating the colonialism narrative.

    “We’ve been able to produce [Indigenous] surgeons, doctors, lawyers, accountants, academics, and engineers. And getting Aboriginals through school and all that, and also very focused on improving the life expectancy and economic prosperity for Aboriginal people,” he previously told The Epoch Times.

    “When you have negative things all the time, you get this victimhood. And that’s what a lot of this stuff does, and we need to move away from that.”

    Monarchists Hail the Late Queen’s Influence

    Meanwhile, the Australians for Constitutional Monarchy said it was a moment of “great sadness” for the people of the Commonwealth.

    “She set the theme of her long reign in her address to the Commonwealth broadcast from South Africa on her 21st year when she declared that she would dedicate her whole life, whether it be long or short, to the service of the great imperial family to which we all belong,” the ACM wrote on Facebook.

    Fellow supporters of maintaining the Crown as Australia’s head of state, the Australian Monarchist League, said the Queen’s passing marked the close of the second Elizabethan era and “heralds a new chapter in world history.”

    “Australians can take comfort in the knowledge that their new King will unequivocally continue the longstanding traditions, dutiful service, and vital constitutional role which epitomised our late Queen.”

    The campaign for a Republic has been an ongoing attempt to change Australia’s political system from a constitutional monarchy, where the head of state is a member of the British Royal Family, to a Republic where the head of state is a president.

    The last referendum on the issue in 1999 failed to win enough support, with 45.13 percent of voters in favour and 54.87 percent against. One criticism was the Republic model presented saw the president selected by sitting members of Parliament and not the general public.

    Current Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has promised to revisit the issue.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 19:40

  • Top Rice-Exporter India Curbs Shipments, Adds To Fresh Food Inflation Fears
    Top Rice-Exporter India Curbs Shipments, Adds To Fresh Food Inflation Fears

    We told readers in April that the next challenge for the global food supply could be a plunge in rice production (read: here). Then in early August, severe heatwaves in India, the world’s biggest rice shipper, wreaked havoc across farmland in the country, depressing crop output. Today, India restricted some rice exports and placed levies on others, exacerbating a world already squeezed by a food crisis. 

    Bloomberg reported India imposed a 20% duty on white and brown rice exports and banned shipments of broke rice — parboiled and basmati rice were excluded from the export duty and/or trade restrictions. The new curbs apply to about 60% of India’s rice exports and go into effect Friday. 

    India’s clamp down on grain exports is to calm domestic prices after low rainfall during the monsoon season curtailed planting. The country accounts for 40% of global rice shipments and could spark yet another wave of food inflation for the poorest nations importing the grain. 

    “Such severe disruptions in global supplies, combined with a record level of consumption worldwide, should supercharge” prices and further fuel food inflation, said Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities at Fitch Solutions.

    According to Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, “imposing a 20% levy is a big deal … this move will cause global rice prices to rally.” 

    Ophaswongse said traders would be forced to purchase from rivals Thailand and Vietnam, struggling to increase shipments and will send prices even higher. India’s export restrictions will be a massive blow to importing nations in Asia and Africa that consume the grain. 

    Persistent inflation (especially food and energy) could spark further civil unrest worldwide over the next coming months. The forecast for impending global turmoil to deepen was published in a new note by Verisk Maplecroft, a UK-based risk consulting and intelligence firm (read: here). 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 19:20

  • How Will China's New $44 Billion Stimulus Impact Steel Prices?
    How Will China’s New $44 Billion Stimulus Impact Steel Prices?

    By Ag Metal Miner, published in OilPrice.com

    A few days ago, China’s State Council announced more stimulus policies. The new measures included an additional 300 billion yuan ($44 billion) in quotas for infrastructure spending and investments by banks. This was in addition to the 300 billion yuan announced at June-end. However, the only real question regarding the stimuli is looking at everything happening with steel and iron ore prices: will it help? Most initial reports suggest that the move may give impetus to steel and iron ore off-take, both of which are in a months-long slump. However, other reports believe these new stimulus actions might not achieve their goals. More specifically, they won’t generate a renewed interest in construction activity in China. As a result, there won’t be much (if any) of a positive impact on the steel sector.

    In 2021, China produced 1.033 billion tons of crude steel. It was the first decline since 2016. Thus far, in 2022, national steel production is down 6.4% year-on-year. The China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicted this at the beginning of the year, stating that China’s 2022 output would slow to 1.017 billion tons. This represents a 1.5% decrease from the year before.

    Steel and Iron Ore Prices Bouncing Back

    Following the recent stimuli announcement, a Bloomberg report stated that China’s raw materials prices, including iron ore prices, had officially steadied. This came after factory activity shrank less than expected in August. Meanwhile, the purchasing managers’ index for steel stayed in contraction, and the pace of its decline narrowed sharply.

    Steel industry experts are hopeful that steel output will increase in September as the country starts to respond to the government stimulus efforts, which will hopefully aid iron ore prices. Some Chinese steel mills have already signaled that production is rising and profit margins are back in positive territory.

    Indeed, thanks to the June and September stimuli packages, iron ore prices and some steel products are rebounding. For instance, Shanghai steel rebar initiated a recovery recovering its lowest close this year, moving from  3,704 yuan ($539) a ton on July 15 to 4,078 yuan on Aug. 26. Profit margins at steel mills, which were negative in July, returned to positive territory as well. S&P Global Commodity Insights reported a profit of about $50 a ton on rebar in August.

    Rebar Also Struggling

    Rebar inventories have also dropped. This is also a sign of activity picking up. After all, inventories had gone down in the last nine weeks. They are now about two million tons below the 7.13 million recorded during the same week in 2021.

    Earlier this week, iron ore futures, too, rebounded. The most-traded January iron ore on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange ended daytime trade 4% higher at 692 yuan ($99.85) a ton for iron ore prices. On the Singapore Exchange, the iron ore October contract went up 4.5% to $98.75 a ton. These are promising numbers, but it will take time to see the true and full effect of the ongoing stimulus.  

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 19:00

  • Are Rolex Prices About To Bottom?
    Are Rolex Prices About To Bottom?

    Since the secondhand luxury watch market peaked in April, we pointed out the slump in prices this summer via two notes titled Investors’ Clock Out’ Of Rolex Bull Market As Demand Cools and “Boom Time Over”: Rolex Prices Crash In China

    After a turbulent spring and summer, there’s emerging evidence of a “bottoming out of prices in the world’s most popular luxury watch references,” according to to watch tracking website Sundial. 

    This week the Subdial50 Index, which tracks references for watches such as the Rolex Submariner, Daytona, and Datejust, as well as Patek Philippe Nautilus and an Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, increased 1.2% over the last 30 days. The index is still up 21% over the 12 months but down 22% in the previous six: a wild rollercoaster ride for passionate watch enthusiasts and/or those trying to flip timepieces. 

    “The first quarter of 2022 saw preowned luxury watch prices boom, bringing with it scores of new buyers that were introduced to the market for the first time. Many of these left as quickly as they entered: flippers and day traders who’d been told you couldn’t lose money in watches came with little underlying passion and found themselves burnt when prices began to fall,” Subdial wrote in a market update post this week. 

    For the secondhand Rolex market specifically, WatchCharts’ index of 30 popular models with high trade activity also shows the pandemic boom and peak euphoria in April — only to give way to a tumultuous summer — comes at a time when stocks, cryptos, and bonds have had a rough year. 

    WatchCharts Rolex index dropped 5.9% in June, followed by a 3.5% fall in July and -5.1% in August. 

    A bottom in the secondhand luxury watch market could come when financial conditions ease for real. The latest round of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve members (voting/non-voting) and especially after Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, has ignited a hawkish shift that suggests tightening financial conditions isn’t over. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 18:40

  • Millions Of Electric Car Batteries Retiring By 2030, Are We Ready To Deal With What Could Be Ticking Time Bombs?
    Millions Of Electric Car Batteries Retiring By 2030, Are We Ready To Deal With What Could Be Ticking Time Bombs?

    Authored by Autumn Spreademann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The evolving landscape of lithium batteries is creating both contradictions and infrastructure hurdles that, according to some, need to be addressed sooner rather than later. A critical component of this is waste management.

    Charging sign for electric vehicles (EVs). (paulbr75/pixabay)

    More than 6 million electric vehicle (EV) battery packs will end up as scrap between now and 2030, and the recycling and reuse industries are racing to keep up. Some researchers project that recycling alone will be an over $12 billion industry by 2025.

    U.S. President Joe Biden wants to make America a key player in the EV battery industry with a $3.1 billion spending package for automobile production to transition away from fossil fuels.

    Much of this dream is pinned on a dusty stretch of soil in the Nevada high desert called Thacker Pass. It serves as the lynchpin in Biden’s push for increased domestic lithium production and more EV batteries. That’s because Thacker Pass is the largest hard rock lithium reserve in the United States.

    Currently, China dominates the world’s EV battery production, with more than 80 percent of all units developed there.

    Yet while Biden’s administration has its sights on the top spot for EV battery production, insiders are pointing out industry trapdoors.

    Thacker Pass, Nev., has the largest hard rock lithium reserve in the United States. (Lithium Americas)

    Due to the potentially dangerous chemistry of lithium-ion EV units, concrete solutions are needed before an avalanche of dead battery packs ends up sitting around and waiting for recycling like ticking time bombs.

    Those working on the sales end of the EV revolution tend to squirm or offer vague generalities when queried about what will happen to all of the old batteries.

    The notion is quickly lumped into the very broad category of recycling or second life applications without offering any planning details.

    Second life applications are an option for EV batteries no longer fit to power cars, but are suitable for alternative uses like energy storage.

    And while that’s a start, the ultimate question lingers: How can America effectively deal with millions of completely spent, defective, or recalled EV units?

    For people who specialize in hazardous waste, handling lithium batteries is a serious subject.

    “For me, the biggest challenge I see, especially with second life, is on the safety side,” Scott Thibodeau at Veolia North America told The Epoch Times.

    Thibodeau is the general manager of environmental services and solutions at Veolia North America, the second largest hazmat removal service in the United States.

    He explained the chemistry of lithium-ion batteries is problematic since they can’t be dumped or recycled as easily as some other materials. This requires particular adaptations within the evolving EV industry to responsibly strip, package, and dispose of old units.

    A ‘Thermal Runaway’

    “The packing and logistics isn’t easy or cheap,” Thibodeau said.

    Moreover, the batteries pose a significant fire hazard.

    Tucked within the sprawling Chicago suburbs is the town of Morris, Illinois. Around midday on Jun. 29, 2021, the fire department received a call that a warehouse fire had broken out in a structure that many residents assumed was just an abandoned building. The call came from someone who claimed to be an employee for a company that was storing 200,000 pounds of batteries in the building, most of which were lithium.

    Fire Chief Tracey Steffes told reporters that it was the first time his department had ever fought a lithium fire.

    Mitigating traditional fires is done by using water or chemicals to cut off the supply of oxygen. However, lithium is unique in that it doesn’t require oxygen to burn. Once ignited, it creates what Thibodeau called a “thermal runaway,” which is incredibly challenging to control.

    Once the battery goes into that state, stopping it is next to impossible,” Steffes said to reporters after the June 2021 fire.

    Confused Morris residents were quickly evacuated from neighborhoods close to the blaze and spent hours in hotel rooms, watching smoke fill the sky, and fearing for the safety of their homes.

    At that moment, residential Americans got an up close and personal look at lithium’s dark side.

    It wasn’t the first incident where lithium battery storage turned catastrophic, and it likely won’t be the last.

    Thibodeau says that while there’s no easy way to put out a lithium battery fire, having people properly trained on how to reduce the fire risks, combined with proper handling and storage, is a huge step in the right direction.

    Recycling EV batteries poses another significant hurdle. That’s due to a trifecta of complications including expense, existing capacity to handle demand, and the simple fact these batteries aren’t easy to recycle.

    “Currently, less than five percent of lithium batteries that reach the end of their lifespan are recycled,” a spokesperson for the carbon accounting group Greenly told The Epoch Times.

    The representative for Greenly went on to explain that though the potential for ramped up recycling exists, it’s not possible with lithium-ion batteries until they reach the end of their lifespan.

    “The industry hasn’t obtained the knowledge or experience necessary to learn how to recycle these batteries or maximize their usage beforehand,” they added.

    This is where second life applications come in, which can buy a non-defective EV battery an extra 10 years of life. It also essentially buys the burgeoning recycling companies time to catch up.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 18:20

  • How Will The European Energy Crisis Affect US Freight Markets
    How Will The European Energy Crisis Affect US Freight Markets

    By John Paul Hampstead of FreightWaves

    Volatility in European power markets stemming from EU and U.K. sanctions against Russian energy — imposed in retaliation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February — may soon cool off, but only after carving a slice out of the continent’s economy. 

    On Monday, U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss announced plans to cap household energy bills at the equivalent of $2,300 annually. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz unveiled a 65 billion euro relief package to ease the pain of energy prices that have quadrupled in his country.

    These crisis measures are meant to reduce the economic damage caused by a continentwide natural gas supply crunch following the cancellation of Nord Stream 2 and Russia’s shutdown of Nord Stream 1. Historically high energy prices could sap consumers’ ability to spend money on other goods and services, dragging down economic growth.

    But last week, Goldman Sachs analyst Alberto Gandolfi wrote that his team did not think that the scope of the price caps being contemplated would be nearly enough to avert a 1970s-style energy crisis.

    “We see scope for the introduction of price caps in power generation, which we estimate could save Europe c.€650 bn pa,” Gandolfi wrote in a client note on Saturday. “Yet, price caps would not fully solve the affordability issue: the increase in energy bills would still be of +€1.3 tn, or c.10% of GDP, we estimate.”

    Europe’s economy was relatively healthy until the energy crisis, growing GDP by 3.9% year over year (y/y) or 0.6% quarter on quarter in the second quarter of 2022. But now the eurozone manufacturing PMI has slipped to 49.6, and the S&P Global Germany Composite PMI for August was revised lower to 46.9.

    Slowing economic growth in the EU has been exacerbated by high inflation, which hit 9.7% y/y in August. That has put a jumbo interest rate hike of 75 bps on the table as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde meets with her colleagues in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this week.

    Ocean container rates from Asia to Europe have already fallen dramatically this year — and have dropped especially sharply since the beginning of August.

    The Freightos Baltic Daily spot rate from China to North Europe, displayed in white in the chart above, has fallen 24% since July 3, from $10,397.55 per forty-foot equivalent unit to $7,869.10. Drewry’s spot rate from Shanghai to Rotterdam, Netherlands, displayed in green, dropped 18% over the same period, from $9,280 per FEU to $7,583.

    Those recent ocean container rate cuts came after the market had already been softening for months; container rates on the Asia-Europe trade peaked last October. The sudden, violent step-down in spot rates may indicate that the incremental goods spending is way off in Europe, and ocean carriers are starting to optimize for asset utilization rather than EBIT per shipment. 

    If the steamship lines follow their well-established playbook, their response to soft demand could be to trim capacity, switching out vessels on the main services with smaller ships and deploying those assets elsewhere. The problem is that they might not have anywhere to go: Trans-Pacific ocean container spot rates are also way down on softening demand.

    Upstream ocean container bookings data from FreightWaves Container Atlas reveals that European exports are set to slow markedly as well. Ocean container bookings outbound from Rotterdam to all global ports have experienced downward pressure since July:

    The Ocean Booking Volume Index from Rotterdam to all global ports is down by 25.4% since July 5, a sharp downward trend, albeit the index is still at an elevated level compared to pre-pandemic freight flows. Lead times out of Rotterdam run a little over 10 days, so the trend lines above reflect booking activity approximately 1.5 weeks ahead of the freight physically moving on a vessel. 

    The widely cited European Road Freight Rates Benchmark is at all-time highs but appears to be inclusive of fuel costs (diesel in the EU is up 69% since January). The Russian invasion of Ukraine has restricted the supply of truck drivers in Germany, where migrants make up 24% of the driver workforce, as Ukrainian men returned home to fight. European road freight analysts are betting that weakening economic growth will keep rates from rising higher.

    “The effect of rising costs in 2022 is now very evident with road freight rates across the European continent reaching new all-time highs,” wrote Transportation Insight economic analyst Nathaniel Donaldson. “Initial fuel price rises following the invasion of Ukraine have held and produced a much more costly environment for European road carriers whilst industrial action and a worsening driver shortage keep capacity tight. A range of indicators are pointing towards a drastic slowdown in consumption and production, which will ease further increases while high costs keep rates elevated.”

    The EU energy crisis has already taken a bite out of Europe’s consumption and production, weakening demand for transportation capacity in, through and out of the region. Recently announced fiscal relief measures will likely not be large enough to avert an acute economic slowdown, with knock-on effects for global transportation markets like ocean container freight.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 17:40

  • "End Of Days" Near As Illinois Set To Eliminate Cash Bail For Violent Offenders
    “End Of Days” Near As Illinois Set To Eliminate Cash Bail For Violent Offenders

    Progressive prosecutors and politicians have been enforcing radical criminal-justice policies across the country, often with little concern for real-world effects on the community. The latest is a “no cash bail” policy that will take effect in the new year for those charged with second-degree murder, aggravated battery, and arson in the State of Illinois. 

    The Counter Signal reported SAFE-T Act ends cash bail and includes 12 non-detainable offenses, second-degree murder, aggravated battery, and arson without bail, as well as drug-induced homicide, kidnapping, burglary, robbery, intimidation, aggravated DUI, aggravated fleeing and eluding, drug offenses and threatening a public official.

    After Jan. 1, individuals charged with the above crimes will be free to roam the streets without bail. 

    Will County State’s Attorney James Glasgow warned the “end of days” is coming in the new year when the bill takes effect. Will County is located in the northeastern part of the state and is the second largest county in the six-country Chicago metro area.

    Glasgow continued: SAFE-T Act “will destroy the city and the state of Illinois … and I don’t even understand (how) the people who support it can’t realize that.” 

    The new law also states who can be arrested: For example, someone trespassing on private property can be fined by police but not removed. Glasgow said police and judges would have their “hands tied” behind their backs. This will undoubtedly transform the county into a criminal paradise. 

    He said the violent crime and chaos seen in the metro area would swallow the county alive (and even the state): 

    “What you see in Chicago, we’ll have here.” 

    Even though the SAFE-T Act aims to overhaul the state’s criminal justice system and is designed to end ‘mass incarceration’ … critics of the new legislation are overwhelmingly alarmed that a plague of violent crime will spread across the state. 

    Last month, the Manhattan Institute reported that criminal justice reform in New York failed. The report clarifies that bail reform increased crime, and those subjected to violence were minorities. 

    A no-cash bail for the 12 offenses is another reason residents should leave the state. What could happen after the law goes into effect reminds us of scenes from the dystopian action horror film “The Purge.” 

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    Progressive criminal-justice policies have failed law-abiding citizens. No wonder people are arming up as violent crime spikes in America’s urban centers. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 09/09/2022 – 17:20

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 9th September 2022

  • Adults Aged 35–44 Died At Twice The Expected Rate Last Summer, Life Insurance Data Suggests
    Adults Aged 35–44 Died At Twice The Expected Rate Last Summer, Life Insurance Data Suggests

    Authored by Margaret Menge via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Death claims for working-age adults under group life insurance policies spiked well beyond expected levels last summer and fall, according to data from 20 of the top 21 life insurance companies in the United States.

    Louisiana National Cemetery on August 20, 2021 in Zachary, Louisiana. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

    Death claims for adults aged 35 to 44 were 100 percent higher than expected in July, August, and September 2021, according to a report by the Society of Actuaries, which analyzed 2.3 million death claims submitted to life insurance firms.

    The report looked at death claims filed under group life insurance policies during the 24 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, from April 2020 to March 2022. The researchers used data from the three years before the pandemic to set a baseline for the expected deaths.

    While COVID-19 played some role in the majority of the excess deaths for adults over the age of 34 during the two pandemic years, the opposite was true for younger people. For people 34 and younger, the number of excess non-COVID deaths was higher than those related to COVID, the data show.

    During the third quarter of last year, deaths in the 25-to-34 age bracket were 78 percent above the expected level and, for people aged 45 to 54, 80 percent higher than expected. Excess mortality was 53 percent above the baseline for adults aged 55 to 64.

    The Society of Actuaries (SOA) asked all 20 of the participating life insurance companies how they determine the cause of death for the purpose of recording claims. Of the 18 that responded, 17 said they list COVID-19 as the cause of death if it’s listed anywhere on the death certificate, while eight of the 18 said they go further and communicate with relatives and the medical examiner and look at other sources to try to determine the true cause of death.

    One life insurance company stated that it recorded COVID-19 as the cause of death only when it could be determined to be the primary cause of death on a death certificate.

    The report also notes that white-collar workers had the highest number of excess deaths during the two years studied. The group, which includes accountants, lawyers, computer programmers, and most other jobs done in an office setting, had 23 percent more deaths than expected.

    The sharp increase of deaths among working-age people was first brought to light by Scott Davison, CEO of the Indianapolis-based life insurance company OneAmerica, who said in a virtual press conference on Dec. 30, 2021, that his company and the life insurance industry as a whole was seeing a 40 percent increase in deaths among people ages 18 to 64.

    Davison said at the time that this represented the highest death rates in the history of the life insurance business, and that an increase in mortality of just 10 percent would constitute a “three-sigma” event, a once-in-200-year catastrophe.

    OneAmerica is one of the 20 companies that contributed data for the SOA report. The others include Aflac, Anthem, The Hartford, Lincoln Financial Group, MetLife, New York Life, and Principal Financial.

    Edward Dowd, a hedge fund manager who has been studying excess mortality for the past several months and has an upcoming book on the topic, Cause Unknown, says the rate of deaths among young people is alarming. He pointed out that excess deaths peaked around the time the Biden administration mandated COVID-19 vaccines and companies rushed to comply.

    Temporally, in that three-month period, the change was such that, there was something that occurred,” he said. “Well, we all know what occurred in August, September, and October. It was Biden’s mandates on Sept. 9, and a lot of corporations anticipating those mandates.

    President Joe Biden on Sept. 9, 2021, mandated COVID-19 vaccines for federal employees and health care workers in facilities certified by Medicare and Medicaid. The same day, the president tasked the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) with implementing a nationwide vaccine mandate on private businesses with 100 or more employees.

    U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about combatting the coronavirus pandemic in the State Dining Room of the White House on Sept. 9, 2021, in Washington, DC. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

    The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the OSHA mandate in January but allowed the mandate for health care workers to remain in place.

    The campaign to vaccinate the majority of the population against COVID-19 is the largest vaccination campaign in the history of the world.

    As of Aug. 31, about 90 percent of Americans 18 or older had gotten at least the first dose of one of the COVID-19 vaccines, and 77 percent had gotten both a first and a second dose.

    Dr. Robert Malone, a physician and research scientist credited with the invention of the mRNA technology for use in vaccines, says excess mortality must always be studied to determine whether a vaccine or medicine really is safe.

    “Excess mortality should be a signal, a trigger,” he told The Epoch Times. “When we see excess mortality like that—basically if you’re running a clinical trial and you see this kind of excess mortality, you stop the trial. And you investigate the cause before you proceed. And if you’re marketing a drug, generally, with this kind of data, you stop the distribution of the drug until you have sorted it out.”

    Dr. Robert Malone, inventor of mRNA vaccines, speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas at the Hilton Anatole on Aug. 5, 2022. (Bobby Sanchez for The Epoch Times)

    Malone mentioned what he calls the “classic example” of thalidomide, a morning sickness medication prescribed to a small number of pregnant women in the United States in the late 1950s and early ’60s that was effective in treating morning sickness, but caused severe deformities in their unborn children.

    The drug maker had pressured the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to approve the drug, but the FDA refused, based on the deformities that had been reported.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 23:40

  • Taiwan Has The Fastest Internet In The World, USA Is 4th…
    Taiwan Has The Fastest Internet In The World, USA Is 4th…

    According to the cable.co.uk broadband speed league 2022, Taiwan is on top of the world when it comes to fast internet, with an average download speed of 135.88 Mbps – 13.55 more than second-placed Japan.

    As Statista’s Martin Armstrong details below, Asia features prominently at the top end of the rankings, with Singapore and Hong Kong also recording mean speeds of 100 Mbps+.

    Infographic: The Places with the Fastest Internet | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    For this infographic, we excluded places with populations of less than one million.

    When including all of the measured locations, Macao on the south coast of China has the fasted broadband on average, with a whopping 262.74 Mbps. In second place would be the small island of Jersey, located in the English Channel, with 256.59 Mbps.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 23:20

  • Homeland Security May Have Allowed Dangerous, Unvetted Afghans Into US: Inspector General
    Homeland Security May Have Allowed Dangerous, Unvetted Afghans Into US: Inspector General

    Authored by Naveen Anthrapully via The Epoch Times,

    During the evacuation of Afghanistan from July 2021 to January 2022, the United States brought nearly 80,000 Afghan citizens into the United States, but the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) failed to fully vet some of the evacuees, potentially allowing individuals who pose a national security risk into the country, according to a recent report.

    The DHS Office of Inspector General (OIG) conducted an audit to determine the extent to which the DHS screened, vetted, and inspected the evacuees.

    “We determined some information used to vet evacuees through U.S. Government databases, such as name, date of birth, identification number, and travel document data were inaccurate, incomplete, or missing,” the OIG said in its Sept. 6 report (pdf).

    “We also determined [Customs and Border Patrol] admitted or paroled evacuees who were not fully vetted into the United States.” As a consequence, the DHS may have admitted individuals into the country who pose a risk to national security and threaten the safety of local communities, the OIG warned.

    The audit found that of the 88,977 evacuee records inspected, 417 did not have first names, 242 did not have last names, and 11,110 had their date of birth recorded as Jan. 1.

    In addition, 7,800 records had missing or invalid travel document numbers while 36,400 records had a “facilitation document” as the travel document type. During the audit, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) could not define what the “facilitation document” was.

    One evacuee paroled into the United States by CBP was earlier liberated from an Afghan prison by the Taliban. Another evacuee paroled into the country posed national security concerns. CBP allowed 35 evacuees to board a flight to the United States even though they lacked a green status card required for travel.

    Admitting Potential Threats

    During a recent daily briefing, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre insisted that the DHS OIG report did not take into account the “rigorous, multilayered screening, and vetting process” the Biden administration took. However, an earlier Department of Defense (DOD) report and whistleblower claims support the OIG report.

    A Pentagon audit of the civilian evacuation effort in Afghanistan released in February warned about potentially dangerous individuals being brought into the United States.

    The DOD National Ground Intelligence Center (NGIC) identified “50 Afghan personnel in the United States with information in DoD records that would indicate potentially significant security concerns” in its February 2022 audit report (pdf).

    One whistleblower claimed that the DOD failed to properly vet 324 Afghan evacuees who appeared on the department’s Biometrically Enabled Watchlist that includes suspected terrorists.

    In August 2022, U.S. Sens. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) urged the DOD to investigate the whistleblower allegations.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 23:00

  • Iran Unveils New Stealth Combat Vessel With Vertical-Launch Missiles
    Iran Unveils New Stealth Combat Vessel With Vertical-Launch Missiles

    A new Iranian-built advanced tech combat patrol vessel has just been put into service by the IRGC Navy. Iran’s military is claiming that the vessel, named the “Shahid Soleimani” – has a stealth capable body and design, giving it “radar-evading stealth technology, meaning that it has a very low level of radar cross-section,” state sources say.

    According to Bloomberg, citing state media, the vessel is the country’s first to be equipped with a “vertical launch, short- and medium-range air defense system” – and was unveiled at a Monday ceremony at the port city of Bandar Abbas, overseen by Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces, and IRGC chief Hossein Salami.

    “Shahid Soleimani” vessel is the newest addition to Iran’s navy, via state media.

    The Shahid Soleimani is further being touted as capable of possessing higher maneuverability and smaller radius of rotation given the unique designed, compared to ships of similar size. Bagheri described of the new naval vessel, “The design and construction of this vessel was done by the elite youth and university graduates of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and it has a stealth-equipped body with a very low radar cross section, which can be considered as a national achievement for the country.”

    Earlier this summer, as construction was being completed, the naval analysis site USNI News previewed the following capabilities based on available radar images of the vessel seen from overhead

    These missile boats offer more conventional capabilities than the myriad of small boats operated by the IRGC-N. They could operate as command vessels for swarms of smaller boats armed with rockets, torpedoes, mines, lightweight anti-ship missiles and drones. They could also operate independently, offering a longer-range arm of the IRGC. Either way, the two new types of catamaran are likely to spearhead the IRGC-N’s modernization.

    While Iran struggles to build larger warships and incorporate modern weapon systems, it continues to innovate and modernize in other fields. Its ballistic missiles are treated with respect, as are its drones and cruise missiles. Iran can build submarines and, now, modern missile corvettes.

    Additionally this week Bagheri issued fresh warnings to the United States and Israel, citing the Iranian navy’s ability to secure the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The top general said in addressing naval officers:

    “Also, the Zionist regime’s joining the terrorist U.S. Army’s Central Command can create threats for us. We do not tolerate Zionism, and in addition to protesting through the country’s foreign policy apparatus, we declare that we will not tolerate such development of espionage and creating threats, and we will not make any compromises regarding the rights of the Iranian nation and the security of our seas and land.”

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    The remarks came a day after the United States flew two nuclear-capable B-52H Stratofortresses over the Middle East on Sunday in a message aimed at Tehran. Three Israeli F-16 fighter jets had briefly joined the US mission as the bombers made their way “through Israel’s skies on their way to the (Persian) Gulf,” the Associated Press reported. 

    Last week the US and Iran had multiple encounters and intercept incidents in the Gulf region, with the Iranians claiming to have seized and then let go of several US sea drones. The second Friday incident took place in the Red Sea, involving the intervention of a US warship and helicopter which forced an Iranian patrol to release a pair of seized small surface vessels seized earlier the same day.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 22:40

  • Xi Doubles Down On COVID-Zero Before Party Congress
    Xi Doubles Down On COVID-Zero Before Party Congress

    By Jacob Gu, Bloomberg Markets Live analyst and reporter

    China’s tightening of Covid-fighting measures has diminished hope that the ruling Communist Party may start relaxing the rigorous restrictions after it concludes its 20th Party Congress in October. Doubling down on the Covid Zero policy may not only cause more pain in the already struggling economy, but also undermine confidence among investors and the general public, something former Premier Wen Jiabao has said is “more important than gold and money.”

    The nation’s National Health Commission (NHC) on Thursday announced a raft of new measures in its fight against the Covid-19 virus, including asking people to minimize travel during the Mid-Autumn Festival next week and National Day holidays in October. People traveling via airplanes and railways will need to present negative PCR test results within 48 hours prior to boarding. They must show proof of a negative test within 72 hours when checking into hotels and visiting tourist attractions.

    In a reversal of its guidance in June, the NHC now requires all regions to conduct regular PCR testing, regardless of whether they have outbreaks or not. Previously, the authorities refuted such tests as unnecessary.

    The new measures, which start on Sept. 10 and end on Oct 31, seem to be designed for minimizing outbreak risks before the Party Congress scheduled for mid-October.

    To some China watchers, such as Nomura’s economist Ting Lu, the Covid Zero policy is unlikely to change until at least 2023 because Beijing may either extend or reintroduce these measures after October. It’s partly due to the calendar: the virus is more infectious during the winter; millions of people will travel during the Chinese New Year holidays in January; and the once-in-a-decade central government reshuffling is due at the National People’s Congress’s annual session in March.

    Market sentiment is already poor. The CSI 300 Index tracking companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen ended a two-day advance. Chinese shares traded in the US tumbled.

    Even before the new rules were announced, economists were already busy lowering forecasts for China’s economy. Nomura this week cut its forecast for 2022 growth to 2.7% from 2.8%. On Thursday, Barclays lowered its growth estimate to 2.6% from 3.1%, citing challenges including Covid lockdowns. Of 78 market participants polled by Bloomberg, 25 now see China’s growth below 3% this year.

    The Covid policy is increasingly unpopular among some Chinese and it’s politically sensitive. On Wednesday, Huatai Financial Holdings (HK) published a report saying an analysis of pandemic data in Asia suggests that the death rate from Covid variant BA.5 is lower than that of influenza. The report, co-authored by chief economist Eva Yi and analyst Xun Zhu, went viral on social media before Huatai shelved the analysis, even though it didn’t comment on Beijing’s policy.

    Nobody is expecting the strict rules to be removed before the Party Congress. But political and policy finesse will be in urgent need afterward to save the economy and restore confidence following the prolonged quixotic fight against Covid, before it’s too late.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 22:20

  • It Appears Money Can Buy Happiness After All…
    It Appears Money Can Buy Happiness After All…

    Throughout history, the pursuit of happiness has been a preoccupation of humankind.

    Of course, we humans are not just content with measuring our own happiness, but also our happiness in relation to the people around us – and even other people around the world. The annual World Happiness Report, which uses global survey data to report how people evaluate their own lives in more than 150 countries, helps us do just that.

    The factors that contribute to happiness are as subjective and specific as the billions of humans they influence, but there are a few that have continued to resonate over time.

    Family.

    Love.

    Purpose.

    Wealth.

    As Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley details below, the first three examples are tough to measure, but the latter can be analyzed in a data-driven way.

    Does money really buy happiness? Let’s find out…

    Wealth and Happiness

    To crunch the numbers, we looked at data from Credit Suisse, which breaks down the average wealth per adult in various countries around the world.

    The chart below looks at 146 countries by their happiness score and wealth per adult:

    While the results don’t definitively point to wealth contributing to happiness, there is a strong correlation across the board. Broadly speaking, the world’s poorest countries have the lowest happiness scores, and the richest report being the most happy.

    Regional and Country-Level Observations

    While many of the countries follow an obvious trend (more wealth = more happiness), there are nuances and outliers worth exploring.

    • In Latin America, people self-report more happiness than the trend between wealth and happiness would predict.

    • On the flip side, many nations in the Middle East report slightly less happiness than levels of wealth would predict.

    • Political turmoil, an economic crisis, and the devastating explosion in Beirut have resulted in Lebanon scoring far worse than would be expected. Over the past decade, the country’s score has fallen by nearly two full points.

    • Hong Kong has seen its happiness score sink for years now. Inequality, protests, instability, and now COVID-19 outbreaks have placed the region in an unusual zone on the chart: rich and unhappy.

    Examining Inequality and Happiness

    We’ve looked at the relationship between wealth and happiness between countries, but what about within countries?

    The Gini Coefficient is a tool that allows us to do just that. This measure looks at income distribution across a population, and applies a score to that population. Simply put, a score of 0 would be “perfect equality”, and 1 would be “perfect inequality” (i.e. an individual or group of recipients is receiving the entire income distribution).

    Combined with the same happiness scale as before, this is how countries shape up.

    While there is no ironclad conclusion that can be derived from this dataset, there are big picture observations worth highlighting.

    The 5 Countries With Highest Income Inequality

    First, countries with lower income inequality tend to also report more happiness. The 5 countries in this dataset with the highest inequality (shown above) have an average happiness score 1.3 lower than the 5 countries with the lowest inequality (shown below).

    The 5 Countries With Lowest Income Inequality

     

    Next, interesting regional differences emerge.

     

    Despite high income inequality, many Latin American countries report levels of happiness similar to many much-wealthier European nations.

    The Bottom Line

    People have been seeking understanding on happiness for millennia now, and it’s unlikely that slicing and dicing datasets will crack the code. Still though, much like the pursuit of happiness, the pursuit of understanding is human nature.

    And, in more concrete terms, the more policymakers and the public understand the link between wealth and happiness, the more likely we can shape societies that give us a better chance at living a happy life.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 22:00

  • Texas Sees Record 25.6% Tax-Revenue Surge Amid High Inflation
    Texas Sees Record 25.6% Tax-Revenue Surge Amid High Inflation

    Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Tax revenue in Texas grew by a record 25.6 percent for the 2022 fiscal year through August, according to the latest tax collection data released by the state Comptroller of Public Accounts, Glenn Hegar.

    U.S. and Texas flags fly in front of high voltage transmission towers in Houston, Texas, on Feb. 21, 2021. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    All-funds tax collection for fiscal year 2022 until August came in at $77.2 billion, beating projections made in the Certification Revenue Estimate by nearly $841 million, the data show.

    Since 1988, the growth in the all-funds tax collections has exceeded the prior fiscal year by double digits just five times. And even then, the increases were only in the range of 10 to 13 percent. The 26 percent increase in fiscal 2022 until August is almost double the largest increase seen since 1988.

    In a Sept. 1 press release, Hegar credited the higher sales tax collections to economic growth and inflation. As demand remains strong, both individuals and businesses continue to pay elevated prices for goods, he pointed out.

    State sales tax receipts tend to spike during periods of high inflation. The 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of annual inflation, has remained above 7 percent for every single month in 2022, hitting a peak of 9.1 percent in June.

    The CPI was only at 1.4 percent in January 2021 when President Joe Biden took office. In a recently published survey conducted by The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, 48 percent of respondents blamed Biden and Congress for inflation and the rising cost of living.

    Texas does not have a corporate income tax or state income tax meaning the state is highly reliant on sales taxes for its revenue. Sales tax accounts for 56 percent of all tax collections in Texas and is the largest source of government funding.

    Sector-Wise Tax, Future Collections

    The strong growth in August came from receipts remitted by the oil and gas mining sector, which were up by nearly 80 percent compared with a year ago,” Hegar said in the release.

    “Receipts from the construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade sectors showed double-digit growth for the ninth consecutive month, demonstrating continued strong spending by businesses in the state.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 21:40

  • These Are The World's Most-Searched Consumer Brands In 2022
    These Are The World’s Most-Searched Consumer Brands In 2022

    In today’s fast-paced world, a strong brand is a powerful asset that helps a business stand out in a sea of competition.

    What are some of the most popular brands around the world? One way to gauge this is by looking at Google searches to see what consumers are searching for online (and therefore, what brands they’re paying the most attention to).

    As Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang details below, this graphic by BusinessFinancing.co.uk uses data from Google Keyword Planner to show the world’s most searched consumer brands in the twelve months leading up to March 2022.

    Methodology

    To source this wide of a dataset, the team at BusinessFinancing.co.uk first compiled a list of well-known brands, using a number of reputable sources including Forbes, the Financial Times, BrandDirectory, and more.

    From there, the team created a shortlist of popular consumer brands. This year, they focused on businesses that sell products and services, so some of the big tech companies like Google and Meta were excluded from the 2022 ranking.

    Next, the team used Google Ads API to extract search volume data for the shortlisted brands. They looked at a couple of things:

    • The monthly average of searches over the last 12 months for the brand name alone (e.g. “Nike”)
    • Brand name with the corresponding sector added to the keyword (“Nike clothing”), which helped offset the skew in search volume for generic terms like “Apple” or “Amazon”

    They did this for every country in the world with data available. Here’s what they found.

    The Top 5 Most Searched Brands

    While Netflix is the most frequently searched brand in the highest number of countries (92), Amazon takes the top spot when it comes to total search volume.

    Here’s a look at the top five most search brands by average global monthly searches:

     

    But a brand’s search popularity doesn’t necessarily reflect that the business is thriving. For instance, in April 2022, Netflix announced it had lost around 200,000 subscribers throughout Q1.

     

    The week of the announcement, Netflix’s stock price dipped below $200—the lowest it had been since 2017.

    Smartphones

    Apple and its iPhone take the top spot when it comes to smartphone searches, which may be unsurprisingly considering the top five best-selling smartphones in 2021 were all iPhones.

    View the high resolution of this infographic by clicking here.

    It’s worth noting that the top five best-selling smartphones only capture a fraction of the overall smartphone market, and while iPhones are undeniably popular, they only make up 16.7% of worldwide smartphone sales.

    Gaming

    Epic Games, the creator and platform of Fortnite, maintains its status as the most searched-for gaming brand worldwide, with an average of 14.9 million global monthly searches.

    View the high resolution of this infographic by clicking here.

    No other gaming company came close to Epic Game’s search volume. For instance, Nintendo, which came in second place, only averaged 3.2 million searches a month.

    However, Nintendo still managed to generate more than $16 billion in revenue throughout 2021, triple the gross revenue that Epic Games made the same year.

    Fast Food

    KFC was the most searched fast-food company in more than 83 countries, making it the most popular worldwide.

    View the high resolution of this infographic by clicking here.

    However, it’s worth noting that, while McDonald’s ranked first in fewer countries, it had a higher global monthly search average than its fried chicken competitor.

    In 2021, KFC generated approximately $2.79 billion in global revenue, while McDonald’s brought in $23.2 billion.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 21:20

  • The "Correct" Attitude About The War In Ukraine
    The “Correct” Attitude About The War In Ukraine

    Authored by Finn Andreen via The Mises Institute,

    There are themes in the West that are difficult to question without running the risk of receiving sharp criticism. For the following themes, for example, there is a position considered “correct” by Western collective opinion: “Welfare State,” “climate policy,” “multicultural society,” or “covid-19 vaccination.”

    It is implied that the “acceptable” position to each one of these themes can and should be adopted without any prior critical analysis at the individual level.

    The list of these themes is not static; new ones rise to prominence in society, while others become less important over time. In recent years two new themes have emerged: “authoritarian Russia” and “communist China,” which is not surprising considering that Washington, and thus, by extension. the West, has decided to treat these two nations as strategic enemies.

    recent study shows, for example, that in a very short time the percentage of Americans with a negative view of China increased dramatically, from 46 percent to 67 percent. This is not a coincidence, but the result of a media communication strategy.

    The Critique of the Antiwar Position

    As far as Russia is concerned, the “correct” attitude to have in the West, especially since the start of the Ukraine conflict on February 24, 2022, is no less than an absolute condemnation of that country. Support for Ukraine must be comprehensive and can receive social confirmation by a small blue and yellow flag on Facebook. Unconditional support for the economic war waged by Western leaders against Russia is also socially required for Europeans, even though they will be the first to suffer from it.

    It is for this reason that the Amnesty International report of August 4, 2022, which confirmed that “Ukrainian forces putting civilians at risk and violating the laws of war when they operate in populated areas” became a media bomb, not only in Ukraine but also in the West. This report disturbs a lot of people because it is not in line with the black and white view of Russia as a criminal aggressor and Ukraine as an innocent victim.

    The people who do not take the “correct” stance on the conflict in Ukraine are often accused of being “pro-Russian,” even when this stance simply consists in being objective; by considering the recent history and behavior of the various protagonists. They are considered “pro-Russian” because they do not express unconditional support for Ukraine, but more often, propose conditions for peace. Indeed, the position of most of these critics is not at all “pro-Russian,” but “pro-peace” by supporting active Western efforts to reach a ceasefire, thus sparing as many Ukrainian lives as possible.

    Western media did not react when, on July 14, 2022, the Ukrainian government published a black list of Western politicians, academics, and activists who, according to Kiev, “promote Russian propaganda.” This list includes leading Western intellectuals and politicians, such as Republican Senator Rand Paul, former Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, military and geopolitical analyst Edward N. Luttwak, the political realist John Mearsheimer, and award-winning freelance journalist Glenn Greenwald.

    Though this Ukrainian blacklist should obviously have been condemned in the West, it has hardly elicited any reactions at all, because the Western media already agree with its conclusion: the people on the list are already criticized in their own countries for not adopting the pro-Ukrainian position. Moreover, would the Ukrainian government have dared to publish such a list if it had not had the prior agreement of Washington?

    The Formation of the Collective Opinion

    What is happening in the case of the attitude toward Russia, as well as in the other themes mentioned above, is not surprising or new. In his famous work, On Liberty (1859), John Stuart Mill is perhaps today best known for his prescient early warning of the dangers of the “collective opinion”; the “tyranny of the majority” in the form of “the dominant opinions and feelings that society is trying to impose” on a minority.

    Society’s majority is naturally intolerant of nonconformism, because thinking like everyone else gives psychological comfort and strengthens social ties. Yet, though society depends on collective opinion for its social cohesion, paradoxically it also depends for its well-being on views that run counter to this majority opinion. Just as natural science progresses only through the sometimes tortuous but generally respectful process of peer review, society also needs minority opinions and dissident voices to curb the permanent search for consensus on the part of the majority.

    But minority opinions will suffocate if there is no deeper understanding of Mill’s idea. Fortunately, this understanding exists today. To Mill’s “collective opinion” were added fundamental sociological concepts, such as “crowd psychology” (Gustave Le Bon, 1895), the “political formula” (Gaetano Mosca, 1923), “propaganda” (Edward Bernays, 1928), the “role of the intellectuals” (F.A. Hayek, 1949), the “banality of evil” (H. Arendt, 1963), the “manufacturing of consent” (Chomsky and Herman, 1988), and recently the concept of mass formation psychosis” (Matthias Desmet).

    This accumulated knowledge in the reference above leaves no doubt about the will and the ability of Western political and financial elites to form and direct collective opinion through the control that they exert explicitly and implicitly on the editorial boards of traditional media and on social media platforms. The development of the opinions of Western majorities to the themes mentioned at the beginning of this article is largely the result of these elites” influence on Western public opinion. The collective opinion with respect to climate change is probably the most glaring example of this influence today, considering the significant economic consequences that it will have for Western society.

    Libertarianism Is the Only Solution

    Political globalization, an antiliberal process which has been underway for several decades, has the effect of aligning national political centers and thus reducing plurality. Gradually, Western political power is flowing toward supranational institutions (like the UN, the EU, the World Economic Forum). This centralization of political power, and the resulting economic concentration of business, including concentration of media groups that this has entailed enables and facilitates the formation of public opinion by the Western elites.

    The political philosophy that theoretically is best placed to solve this dilemma of modern society is libertarianism, because it clearly argues for a significant and definitive reduction of political power, both nationally and internationally.

    One of the strengths of libertarianism is precisely the importance it places on the cultural and intellectual plurality of a free society. This is the famous “marketplace of ideas” which, like the free market in goods and services, can only exist partially with the pervasive crony capitalism and massive State intervention that most Western societies are subject to today. In a free society, that is, a highly decentralized society with a weak State having at most a night watchman role, the formation of public opinion by political elites then becomes impossible.

    The present moment in history represents a particular threat to freedom, because the ruling globalist elites now have an unprecedented opportunity to shape the attitudes and opinions of their societies, in their own, often twisted, interests. At the same time, the new and easy access by the general public to alternative analyses and independent information, can counteract this nefarious trend. In these social conditions, Western voices of freedom must continue to present libertarianism, not only for its economic benefits but also as a means of liberating Western peoples from the chains of directed collective opinion.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 21:00

  • "Really A Desperate Time": Summer Drought Wreaks Havoc Across Northeast Farmland
    “Really A Desperate Time”: Summer Drought Wreaks Havoc Across Northeast Farmland

    Drought conditions expanded and intensified over the Northeast this summer, according to the latest report from the US Drought Monitor

    Extreme drought plagues eastern Massachusetts, including Boston, and southern and eastern Rhode Island. A severe drought is more widespread, encompassing much of South Jersey up to the coastal area of Maine. Much of the Northeast is in abnormally dry conditions as of Thursday. 

    The emergence of the Northeast drought comes as the US West experiences a historic megadrought threatening supplies of fresh water, food, and hydropower. 

    As of Tuesday, not a single county in Connecticut, Massachusetts, or Rhode Island is free of drought (and or dry conditions). This will impact the summer’s growing season and may shrink crop yields.

    In Rhode Island, farmers who can typically harvest hay three times in a season are expected to do so only once this year. Because each harvest varies in quality and size, that means losing about half the value of the entire crop, estimated Henry Wright, who grows about 300 acres (121 hectares) of hay and corn. 

    The fields are in such poor condition that as the season winds down, Wright is unlikely to be able reseed in the fall. He’ll have to wait until next year, shortening the growing season. He expects the 2023 hay crop to be only 10% to 20% of normal. 

    “It’s just not going to happen,” said Wright, who’s also president of the Rhode Island Farm Bureau. “This is really a desperate time.”

    In parts of Massachusetts in late August, the Charles River, which runs along Harvard University’s campus and is the site of a world-renowned annual rowing competition, shrank to a trickle. Near the Cochrane Dam on the border of the towns of Needham and Dover, the river mainly became a series of disconnected puddles and pools. 

    In Rhode Island, “we had fairly normal rainfall through June, then it just dropped off the edge of a table,” said Ken Ayars, chief of the agriculture and forest environment division at the state Department of Environmental Management.

    The drought is also affecting the quality of the feed that’s available, which will impact how much milk the cows produce. And because cows don’t sweat, they don’t do well in the heat, which can further affect their milk supply. Osofsky expects the herd’s output to be down about a fifth this year, shaving 20% off his annual profit of $300,000 to $400,000. And that’s excluding the additional expense of buying feed. 

    “The whole dairy game is milk,” Osofsky said. “It’s making as much milk as we can as cheaply as we can. So this has made it terribly expensive to do.” — Bloomberg 

    The drought has also impacted some drinking water reservoirs across New Jersey. In July, the Murphy administration asked New Jersey residents and businesses to conserve water due to moderate to severe drought impacting parts of the state. The water crisis appears worse further north. 

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    Brad Rippey, a meteorologist with the US Department of Agriculture, said a high-pressure system above the Northeast had been the source of the dryness. He said the system blocked storms from coming into the region, contributing to less rainfall. 

    Rippey said 40% of the US is consumed in a drought. A protracted La Niña weather pattern has meant hotter and drier weather conditions in the West. 

    The odds of La Nina sticking around through January are now 80%, up from 72% a month ago, according to a new forecast by the US Climate Prediction Center. This could be the third time since 1950 when the weather phenomenon occurred in three consecutive years. 

    So is La Nina to blame for chaotic weather patterns across the US, or is it “climate change” as the mainstream media is hellbent on convincing the masses the world is headed for climate doom? 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 20:40

  • Greenpeace Co-Founder Patrick Moore Says Climate Change Based On False Narratives
    Greenpeace Co-Founder Patrick Moore Says Climate Change Based On False Narratives

    Authored by Lee Yun-Jeong via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Patrick Moore, one of the founders of Greenpeace, said in an email obtained by The Epoch Times that his reasons for leaving Greenpeace were very clear: “Greenpeace was ‘hijacked’ by the political left when they realized there was money and power in the environmental movement. [Left-leaning] political activists in North America and Europe changed Greenpeace from a science-based organization to a political fundraising organization,” Moore said.

    Moore left Greenpeace in 1986, 15 years after he co-founded the organization.

    The ‘environmental’ movement has become more of a political movement than an environmental movement,” he said. “They are primarily focused on creating narratives, stories, that are designed to instill fear and guilt into the public so the public will send them money.”

    He said they mainly operate behind closed doors with other political operatives at the U.N., World Economic Forum, and so on, all of which are primarily political in nature.

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] is “not a science organization,” he said. “It is a political organization composed of the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program.

    The IPCC hires scientists to provide them with ‘information’ that supports the ‘climate emergency’ narrative.

    Their campaigns against fossil fuels, nuclear energy, CO2, plastic, etc., are misguided and designed to make people think the world will come to an end unless we cripple our civilization and destroy our economy. They are now a negative influence on the future of both the environment and human civilization.”

    Today, the left has adopted many policies that would be very destructive to civilization as they are not technically achievable. Only look at the looming energy crisis in Europe and the UK, which Putin is taking advantage of. But it is of their own making in refusing to develop their own natural gas resources, opposing nuclear energy, and adopting an impossible position on fossil fuels in general,” Moore wrote.

    The Left ‘Hijacked’ Greenpeace

    A “Greenpeace” protester is seen flying into the stadium prior to the UEFA Euro 2020 Championship Group F match between France and Germany at Football Arena Munich in Munich, Germany, on June 15, 2021. (Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)

    He said “green” for the environment and “peace” for the people were the organization’s founding principles, but peace was largely forgotten, and green had become the sole agenda.

    Many [so-called] ‘environmental’ leaders were now saying that ‘humans are the enemies of the Earth, the enemies of Nature.’ I could not accept that humans are the only evil species. This is too much like ‘original sin,’ that humans are born with evil, but all the other species are good, even cockroaches, mosquitos, and diseases,” Moore argued.

    He said the new dominant philosophy is that the world would be better if fewer people existed.

    “But the people who said this were not volunteering to be the first to go away. They behave as if they are superior to others. This kind of ‘pride’ and ‘conceit’ is the worst of the Cardinal Sins,” Moore said.

    Environmental Activist

    As a prominent scholar, ecologist, and long-time leader in the international environmental field, Patrick Moore is widely regarded as one of the world’s most qualified experts on the environment. He is also a founder of Greenpeace, the world’s largest environmental activist organization.

    Moore received his Ph.D. in Ecology from the University of British Columbia in 1974 and an Honorary Doctorate of Science from North Carolina State University in 2005.

    Patrick Moore, Canadian Ecologist, Chair of CO2 Coalition, and Co-Founder of Greenpeace. (Courtesy of Patrick Moore)

    He co-founded Greenpeace in 1971 and served as president of Greenpeace Canada for nine years. From 1979 to 1986, Moore served as the Director of Greenpeace International, a driving force shaping the group’s policies and directions. During his 15-year tenure, Greenpeace became the world’s largest environmental activist organization.

    In 1991, Moore founded Greenspirit, a consultancy focusing on environmental policies, energy, climate change, biodiversity, genetically modified food, forests, fisheries, food, and resources.

    Between 2006 and 2012, Moore served as co-chairman of the Clean and Safe Energy Coalition, a U.S.-based environmental advocacy group.

    In 2014, he was appointed Chairman of Ecology, Energy, and Prosperity of Frontier Centre for Public Policy, a non-partisan Canadian public policy think tank.

    In 2019 and 2020, Moore served as the Chair of CO2 Coalition, a U.S.-based nonprofit environmental advocacy group dedicated to disputing false claims on CO2 as relates to climate change.

    False Narrative on Chlorine

    At the time I decided to leave Greenpeace, I was one of 6 Directors of Greenpeace International. I was the only one with formal science education, BSc Honors in Science and Forestry, and Ph.D. in Ecology. My fellow directors decided that Greenpeace should begin a campaign to ‘Ban Chlorine Worldwide.’”

    Moore said it is true that elemental chlorine gas is highly toxic and was used as a weapon in World War I. However, chlorine is one of the 94 [naturally-ocurring] elements on the Periodic Table and has many roles in biology and human health. For example, table salt (NaCl or Sodium Chloride) is an essential nutrient for all animals and many plants. It is impossible to “ban” NaCl.

    Salt pans cover 10,000 hectares at Aigues-Mortes, where workers collect salt crystals on Aug. 22, 2018.  After harvesting the ‘fleur de sel,’ a hand-harvested sea salt, they must wait until September to harvest the salt which is used as table salt. (Pascal Guyot/AFP via Getty Images)

    He pointed out that adding chlorine to drinking water, swimming pools, and spas was one of the most significant advances in public health history in preventing the spread of water-borne communicable diseases such as cholera. And about 85 percent of pharmaceutical drugs are made with chlorine-related chemistry, and about 25 percent of all our medicines contain chlorine. All halogens, including chlorine, bromine, and iodine, are powerful antibiotics; without them, medicine would not be the same.

    Greenpeace named chlorine ‘The Devil’s Element’ and calls PVC, polyvinyl chloride, or simply vinyl, ‘the Poison Plastic.’ All of this is fake [and] to scare the public. In addition, this misguided policy reinforces the attitude that humans are not a worthy species and that the world would be better off without them. I could not convince my fellow Greenpeace directors to abandon this misguided policy. This was the turning point for me,” Moore said.

    False Narrative on Polar Bears

    When asked how Greenpeace utilizes its massive donations, Moore said it was used to pay for “a very large staff” (likely over 2,000), extensive advertisements, and fundraising programs. And virtually all of the organization’s ads for fundraising are based on false narratives, which he had thoroughly disproven in his books, one example being the polar bears.

    Pristine white polar bear on an island off the sub-Arctic coast of Hudson Bay, Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, after swimming to shore from a winter on the sea ice.

    “The International Treaty on Polar Bears, signed by all polar countries in 1973, to ban unrestricted hunting of polar bears, is never mentioned in the media, Greenpeace, or politicians who say the polar bear is going extinct due to melting ice in the Arctic. In fact, the polar bear population has increased from 6,000 to 8,000 in 1973 to 30,000 to 50,000 today. This is not disputed,” Moore said.

    “But now they say the polar bear will go extinct in 2100 as if they have a magic crystal ball that can predict the future. In fact, this past winter in the Arctic saw an expansion of ice from previous years, and Antarctica was colder during the last winter than in the past 50 years.”

    Moore said that he does not pretend to know everything and predict the future with confidence like many in the “climate emergency” business claim they can do.

    The Goal of the ‘Environmental Apocalypse’ Theory

    “I believe the human population has always been vulnerable to people who predict doom with false stories,” Moore said.

    “The Aztecs threw virgins into volcanos, and the Europeans and Americans burned women as witches for 200 years claiming this would ‘save the world’ from evil people. This has been [referred to as] ‘herd mentality,’ ‘groupthink,’ and ‘cult behavior.’ Humans are social animals with a hierarchy, and it is easiest to gain a high position by using fear and control.”

    Moore said the environmental apocalypse theory is mostly about “political power and control,” adding that he is dedicated to showing people that the situation is not as negative as they are told.

    “Today, in the richest countries, our descendants are making decisions that our grandchildren will have to pay for,” he said. “Predictions that the world is coming to an end have been made for thousands of years. Not once has this come true. Why should we believe it now?”

    “People are naturally afraid of the future because it is unknown and full of risks and difficult decisions. I believe there is also an element of ‘self-loathing’ in this apocalypse movement.”

    Moore said the young generation today is taught that humans are not worthy and are destroying the earth. This indoctrination has made them feel guilty and ashamed of themselves, which is the wrong way to go about life.

    The Demonization of Carbon Dioxide

    Very few people believe the world is not warming. The record is clear that the world has been warming since about the year 1700, 150 years before we were using fossil fuels. 1700 was the peak of the Little Ice Age, which was very cold and caused crop failures and starvation. Before that, around 1000 A.D. was the Medieval Warm period when Vikings farmed Greenland. [And] before that, around 500 A.D. were the Dark Ages, and before that, the Roman Warm Period when it was warmer than today, and the sea level was 1–2 meters higher than today,” Moore said.

    Representatives of car companies arrive at the Vienna Autoshow as Greenpeace activists protest against carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from sports utility vehicle cars (SUV) on Jan. 16, 2008. (Dieter Nagl/AFP via Getty Images)

    “Even until about 1950, the amount of fossil fuel used and CO2 emitted were very small compared to today. We do not know the cause of these periodic fluctuations in temperature, but it was certainly not CO2.”

    Moore clarified that the “minority opinion” is not about the history of the Earth’s temperature, but it is the relationship between the temperature and CO2 that is at the center of the dispute.

    In this regard, I agree that many believe CO2 is the main cause of warming. CO2 is invisible, so no one can actually see what it is doing. And this ‘majority’ are mainly scientists paid by politicians and bureaucrats, media making headlines, or activists making money. [The rest are] the public who believe this story even though they can’t actually see what CO2 is doing,” Moore said.

    Moore provided a graph of temperature continuously measured over 350 years (from 1659 to 2009) in central England. “If carbon dioxide was the main cause of warming, then there should be a rise in temperature along the carbon dioxide curve, but it doesn’t,” he explained.

    1659–2009 Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Central England. (Courtesy of Patrick Moore)

    Moore described the demonization of CO2 as “completely ridiculous.” He added that CO2 is the basis of all life on Earth and its concentration in the atmosphere today, even with the increase, is lower than it has been for a large majority of life’s existence.

    Rising CO2 Correlates With Increased Plantation: Study

    A study in 2013 found that increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) have helped boost green foliage across the world’s arid regions over the past 30 years.

    The Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), in collaboration with the Australian National University (ANU), found the distribution area of ​​vegetation increased by 11 percent due to the effect of carbon dioxide fertilization in arid areas of the world between 1982 and 2015 through satellite observations. (Courtesy of Patrick Moore)

    The Australian government agency CSIRO conducted the research in collaboration with Australian National University (ANU). The data was based on satellite observations from the year 1982 to 2010 across parts of the arid areas in Australia, North America, the Middle East, and Africa.

    It found an 11 percent increase in foliage cover in the studied area due to what’s called “CO2 fertilization.”

    The study said a fertilization effect occurs when elevated CO2 levels enable a leaf during photosynthesis—the process by which green plants convert sunlight into sugar—to extract more carbon from the air or lose less water to the air or both.

    “If elevated CO2 causes the water use of individual leaves to drop, plants in arid environments will respond by increasing their total numbers of leaves. These changes in leaf cover can be detected by satellite, particularly in deserts and savannas where the cover is less complete than in wet locations,” according to Randall Donohue, the CSIRO research scientist.

    Breaking the Global Warming Narrative

    Climate alarmists prefer to discuss climate knowledge only since 1850. The time before this they referred to as the pre-industrial age. This ‘pre-industrial age’ was more than 3 billion years when life was on the Earth. Many climate changes [occurred during that period], including Ice Ages, Hothouse Ages, major extinctions due to asteroid impacts, and other unknown causes,” Moore said.

    “Today, the Earth is in the Pleistocene Ice Age, which began 2.6 million years ago. … So, the most recent major glaciation, which peaked 20,000 years ago, was not the end of the Ice Age. We are still in the Pleistocene Ice Age no matter how the climate alarmists wish to deny this.”

    He said the great irony of the present panic about the climate is that the Earth is colder today than it was for 250 million years before the Pleistocene Ice Age set in. And CO2 is lower now than in more than 95 percent of Earth’s history.

    “But you would never know this if you listen to all the people who benefit from the lie that the Earth will soon be too hot for life and that CO2 will become higher than in Earth’s history,” Moore said.

    ‘More CO2 Is Beneficial to the Environment and Humans’

    According to Moore, nearly all commercial greenhouse farmers worldwide buy CO2 to inject into their greenhouses to realize up to 60 percent higher crop yields.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 20:20

  • Apple's Big Product Launch: It Was All About The iPhone Price
    Apple’s Big Product Launch: It Was All About The iPhone Price

    For those who missed it, and to be honest there was not much if anything new…

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    … as even Steve Job’s daughter joked, here is a snapshot of everything that was announced at yesterday’s iPhone 14 reveal, courtesy of Goldman:

    • Pro pricing unchanged, Satellite connectivity, new premium Watch, all as expected Apple’s big Fall event revealed mostly incremental improvements (in GIR’s opinion) as the company launched a new iPhone, Watch, and AirPods.

    • Apple kept its USD pricing for all models of iPhone unchanged and inserted the new 14+ at the price we had expected. Rod believes this is likely the best pricing outcome for Apple as it avoids increasing the risk of Pro downgrades to non-Pro models and preserves some ASP with the 14+ at a higher pricepoint.

    • With regards to international prices, the company did partially adjust pricing for USD strength in international markets though the partial adjustment suggests a possible tradeoff of margin for unit demand.

    • As for other features, Apple launched a new Emergency SOS service via satellite connectivity in all new iPhones and is surprisingly offering the service free for 2 years.

    • The company also launched a new premium Watch Ultra priced at $799 which features a larger 49mm titanium case and a redesigned digital crown among other things. This had been heavily speculated in the press and the product is more or less in line with those reports.

    • Since the Apple Watch Ultra is a completely new product we expect most press to focus on this as the product release nears on September 23. We are particularly interested in how consumers react to the significantly larger size though the feature set looks attractive for outdoor enthusiasts.

    • Finally, the company also rolled out an upgrade to its popular AirPods Pro product with longer battery life and better sound quality. Apple’s stock was up slightly on the day but Rod sees little reason for incremental positivity on a product launch that was largely as expected

    Apple now has an iPhone for (almost) every wallet, starting with the budget-friendly iPhone SE from $429 and ending with the top-of-the-line 1TB 14 Pro Max for a whopping $1,599 in the United States (and significantly more in other parts of the world).

    Infographic: An iPhone for (Almost) Every Wallet | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Looking at the reactions from the broader analyst community, Apple analysts said the biggest takeaway from the company’s product event was its pricing strategy, after the iPhone maker unveiled new versions of its smartphone and watch:

    Piper Sandler (overweight, PT $195)

    • Most importantly, average selling prices for these new phones were kept consistent with last year’s models
    • “Given the constrained economic environment we think this is an incremental positive”

    Canaccord Genuity (buy, PT $200)

    • Apple met investor expectations with its product launch and “has a strong lineup to deliver healthy holiday sales”
    • The company’s ecosystem approach, which includes an installed base that exceeds 1.8B devices globally, “should continue to generate strong services revenue”
    • “Longer term, we expect the higher margin services revenue growth to outpace total company growth and drive gross margin expansion”

    KeyBanc Capital Markets

    • The addition of incremental 4G/5G bands in the new iPhones is a “moderately positive for the RF group” that includes AVGO, QRVO, SWKS
    • Meanwhile, Apple’s decision to standardize eSIM might be a negative for wireless carriers, particularly AT&T and Verizon, as it makes switching carriers easier

    Wells Fargo Securities (overweight, PT $185)

    • The announcements “again prove to be more evolutionary than revolutionary,” and therefore the lack of change in the pricing strategy for Pro and Pro Max models is important; “we think investors were expecting up to a $100 price increase on the new high-end devices”
    • Apple’s expanded Apple Watch line-up is “an incremental positive”

    Evercore ISI (outperform, PT $185)

    • The announcements were “largely as expected,” though “some may be slightly surprised by the lack of pricing action”

    Wedbush (outperform, PT $220)

    • The lack of a price increase was a surprise to the Street
    • “We believe Apple is expecting another heavy iPhone Pro and Pro Max mix shift which is a clear positive for [average selling prices] heading into FY23”

    Bloomberg Intelligence

    • “Overall, we don’t anticipate that these new products are likely to spur noticeable sales growth in the company’s next fiscal year”

     

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 20:00

  • County Official In Nevada Arrested In Connection With Murder Of Las Vegas Reporter: Report
    County Official In Nevada Arrested In Connection With Murder Of Las Vegas Reporter: Report

    Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Police have arrested a county official in Nevada in connection to the recent murder of a Las Vegas Review-Journal investigative reporter who had written articles about the official, the newspaper reported.

    Clark County Public Administrator Rob Telles. (Courtesy of Clark County)

    The murdered reporter, Jeff German, was found dead outside his home on Sept. 3. He died of “multiple sharp force injuries” in a homicide, the Clark County Office of the Coroner/Medical Examiner said on Sept. 4. Police said at the time that German appeared to have been in an altercation with another person prior to the stabbing.

    Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo told the Las Vegas Review-Journal around 6:30 p.m. local time on Sept. 7 that Clark County Public Administrator Robert Telles had been arrested.

    The newspaper reported that shortly before Lombardo’s confirmation, police in tactical gear had surrounded Telles’ home, and about 30 minutes later, Telles was wheeled out of his home on a stretcher and was loaded into an ambulance.

    The arrest comes after officers executed search warrants on Telles’ residence earlier in the day. Local outlets reported that a home at which officers were seen belongs to Telles. The Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department confirmed to The Epoch Times the execution of warrants were related to German’s murder.

    Vehicle at Crime Scene Matches Description of One in Official’s Garage

    Police had interviewed Telles and searched his home, including his vehicle, which matched the description of a vehicle witnesses saw at the scene of the crime.

    Police on Sept. 6 had released an image of the vehicle, which was described as a 2007 to 2014 red or maroon GMC Yukon Denali with chrome handles, a sunroof, and a luggage rack.

    Reporters with the Las Vegas Review-Journal said that they saw Telles in the driveway of his home with a vehicle matching the description. The GMC vehicle, as well as a second vehicle, were towed from Telles’ property at about 12:50 p.m local time on Sept. 7, reported the outlet.

    Telles did not speak to reporters outside his home around 2:20 p.m., after he was interviewed and searched by police. He was wearing what appeared to be a hazmat suit and sandals, as if he had discarded his clothes, or surrendered them as evidence.

    German, 69, was well known in Las Vegas for his decades of reporting on political malfeasance and organized crime.

    Investigative reporter Jeff German poses for a portrait at the Las Vegas Review-Journal photos studio in Las Vegas on Jan. 19, 2017. (Elizabeth Brumley/Las Vegas Review-Journal via AP)

    Telles, who is due to leave office in January, had lost the Democratic primary election in June. The 45-year-old official’s failed reelection bid came shortly after German reported that Telles had an inappropriate relationship with a subordinate and treated workers poorly.

    On Twitter in June, Telles called German “obsessed” with him and said that his wife had caught German going through his trash. “Looking forward to lying smear piece #4 by @JGermanRJ,” Telles wrote on June 18 on Twitter. “I think he’s mad that I haven’t crawled into a hole and died.”

    German had also previously written other articles that involved Telles and had recently filed public records requests for emails and text messages between Telles and three other county officials.

    In a letter on his website, Telles said that the articles German authored had contained false allegations. “I know that Clark County will find that I have done nothing wrong,” he wrote of German’s allegations.

    Arrest of Official an ‘Enormous Relief’: Newspaper Editor

    Glenn Cook, the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s executive editor, said on Sept. 7 that Telles’s arrest is “at once an enormous relief and an outrage for the Review-Journal newsroom.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 19:40

  • China's "ESG" Funds Include Coal Companies And Firms Tied To Alleged Human Rights Violations In Xinjiang
    China’s “ESG” Funds Include Coal Companies And Firms Tied To Alleged Human Rights Violations In Xinjiang

    Further proving that ESG investments can include…anything anybody wants…and proving that the entire notion of ESG investing is one giant racket, it was reported this week that ESG investment initiatives in China have investors funneling their cash into liquor and coal companies. 

    Fund manager Hou Chunyan, who recently pitched ESG investing as a way to stay compatible with China’s goals of “common prosperity”, said in a presentation in June that her fund, the Da Cheng ESG Responsibility Investment Mixed Fund, doesn’t exclude coal companies or liquor stocks, according to Yahoo/Bloomberg

    Additionally, the piece notes that ESG funds also invest in chemical manufacturers and solar and technology firms tied to forced labor in Xinjiang. 

    President Xi Jinping’s net-zero commitment and anti-poverty campaigns have prompted 112 new ESG funds to pop up in China over the last 20 months, according to Bloomberg data. This is about three times as many that debuted over the four years prior. 

    Retail investors in China are providing plenty of demand for the funds, Fidelity said. There are now $50 billion in ESG assets in China – about double what there was in the beginning of 2021. 

    And because “ESG” in China also means tethering your fund to China’s political goals, about 15% of the country’s ESG funds are invested in coal. More than 60% own steel companies, who are massive consumers of the country’s coal. 

    Bradford Cornell, emeritus professor of financial economics at UCLA, told Bloomberg: “People say ESG like we’ve agreed upon what it is — we’ve not. In China, the rules on environmental and social issues are made by the Chinese Communist Party.”

    Liu Xiangfeng, whose Beijing-based firm, QuantData, specializes in ESG analysis, added: “A local analyst would consider being a state-owned enterprise a good thing, while their counterpart in Europe might consider it a deal-breaker. There is culture and ideology involved.”

    The country’s CSI 300 ESG Leaders index includes China Shenhua Energy Co., which gets 78% of its revenue from coal mining, and alcohol company Kweichow Moutai Co.

    About 10% of the country’s ESG funds also hold Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., which is a company that has already been placed under U.S. trade sanctions due to alleged human rights violations in Xinjiang. 

    Shirley Xu, head of ESG research at China Asset Management Co., said: “As an asset manager in China, aside from using international ratings as a reference, we must follow China’s current stage of industry development and invest accordingly.” 

    Boya Wang, an ESG analyst at Morningstar Inc. concluded: “The government is bound to generate its own interpretation of ESG, because they want to make sure it will not conflict with the country’s national economic strategies…social inequality and local unemployment top the agenda.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 19:20

  • Judge Bars Official Who Took Part In Jan. 6 From 'Seeking Or Holding' Office
    Judge Bars Official Who Took Part In Jan. 6 From ‘Seeking Or Holding’ Office

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A judge in New Mexico has barred an official who was convicted for being on the grounds of the U.S. Capitol while it was breached on Jan. 6, 2021, from seeking or holding state or federal office, and removed the official from his position.

    Otero County Commissioner Couy Griffin speaks to journalists as he leaves the federal court in Washington on March 21, 2022. (Gemunu Amarasinghe/AP Photo)

    State District Court Judge Francis Mathew found that Couy Griffin, an Otero County commissioner, took an oath to support the U.S. Constitution when assuming the position.

    Mathew also concluded that the Capitol breach was “an insurrection against the U.S. Constitution” and that Griffin “engaged in” the insurrection when he entered restricted Capitol grounds.

    Three New Mexico residents, represented by the Washington-based nonprofit Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics, had asked the court to bar Griffin from holding office.

    They pointed to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which says that no person shall hold a federal or state office if they “having previously taken an oath … to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.”

    Due to the breach constituting an insurrection and Griffin participating after taking an oath in support of the Constitution, Griffin was disqualified from holding a state or federal office as of the day of the breach, according to the new ruling.

    Mr. Griffin aided the insurrection even though he did not personally engage in violence,” Mathew said. “By joining the mob and trespassing on restricted Capitol grounds, Mr. Griffin contributed to delaying Congress’s election-certification proceedings.”

    Griffin, who also founded a group called Cowboys for Trump, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A phone call to the number listed for him on the Otero County website was not answered.

    The two other Otero County commissioners did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 19:00

  • Lender Seizes Evergrande's Hong Kong Headquarters
    Lender Seizes Evergrande’s Hong Kong Headquarters

    It may not have been China’s Lehman, but just like Lehman, Evergrande’s sprawling headquarters now belongs to someone else: according to the FT, Evergrande’s Hong Kong headquarters building has been seized by a lender after the struggling Chinese property developer defaulted on a loan and twice failed to sell the building.

    The lender, whose identity has not yet been confirmed, informed Evergrande earlier this week that it had appointed a receiver to take charge of the property, which is valued at $1.2 billion. Citing four sources, the FT notes that the lender had security over the China Evergrande Centre – a 26-story tower near the city center of Hong Kong island – which allowed it to take charge of the asset.

    Evergrande HK headquarters.

    Evergrande had reportedly pledged the building in exchange for loans from a consortium of lenders led by China CITIC Bank International, the HK-based subsidiary of the Chinese state-owned bank. The unnamed lender had appointed receivers from restructuring firm Alvarez & Marsal.

    Last September, as an Evergrande default loomed, CITIC Bank told its investors that its loans to the developer were pledged against valuable security, although it did not provide further details. We now have a hint what said security may have been.

    Evergrande was infamously the most prominent developer to default in 2021 as a liquidity crisis gripped the Chinese property sector. It told creditors in January that it would unveil a preliminary plan by the end of July to restructure its $300 billion of liabilities, which include $20 billion of offshore bonds, but it missed that deadline and instead said it had only made “positive progress” toward a proposal.

    The property developer had twice attempted to sell the tower. Last October, Chinese state-owned Yuexiu Property pulled out of a reported $1.7 billion deal to buy the building over concerns about the developer’s financial situation. It put the headquarters back on the market in July, attracting a number of bids including from Li Ka-shing’s Hong Kong property developer CK Asset Holdings. However the sale again fell through because the bids were too low, reflecting Evergrande’s desperate need to raise cash.

    Evergrande has been divesting assets including property and its stakes in companies in a bid to repay some of its creditors. Its chair has also put his personal assets up for sale, including private jets. This week, Evergrande said it would sell its remaining stakes in China’s Shengjing Bank for $1.1 billion.

    The developer, which is listed in Hong Kong but whose shares have been suspended from trading since March, has not yet informed the market that a receiver has been appointed over one of its large Hong Kong assets. Earlier this year, Oaktree Capital, a $158 billion American asset manager, seized two of Evergrande’s prized assets after it defaulted on loans that totaled around $1 billion. The assets were a large development site in Hong Kong, where Evergrande’s chair Hui Ka Yan had intended to build a Versailles-like mansion and a sprawling residential and tourism resort near Shanghai called “Venice.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 18:40

  • Rand Paul: "America Should Be Appalled" At Fauci Covering His Tracks
    Rand Paul: “America Should Be Appalled” At Fauci Covering His Tracks

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    Appearing on Fox News Wednesday, Senator Rand Paul slammed Anthony Fauci for taking the default position of trying to “cover up” his activities, including potentially encouraging social media companies to censor medical information.

    After a federal judge ordered the release of emails Fauci sent to social media platforms concerning what he defined as ‘misinformation’, many want to know exactly what Fauci asked of them.

    “His response was not that I’ll look into it or I’ll reveal that. His response was, by law, we don’t have to tell you which companies gave us how many royalties and to which scientists,” Paul said of Fauci, noting that the emails sent to social media bosses could reveal censorship efforts.

    “I think that all of America should be appalled that America’s doctor, the leading expert on COVID in public health, doesn’t want to divulge information, doesn’t want to divulge his communications with Big Tech,” Paul urged, adding that Fauci’s “modus operandi” is to “cover up”.

    Watch:

    As part of a lawsuit brought by Louisiana Republican Jeffrey Landry, the federal judge ruled that Fauci and White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre need to make public all relevant communications with Big Tech within the next three weeks.

    Landry and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt argued in an initial filing that “having threatened and cajoled social-media platforms for years to censor viewpoints and speakers disfavored by the Left, senior government officials in the Executive Branch have moved into a phase of open collusion with social-media platforms under the Orwellian guise of halting so-called ‘disinformation,’ ‘misinformation’ and ‘malinformation.’”

    Elsewhere during the interview, Senator Paul commented on revelations by Gun Owners of America that the FBI pressured Americans into signing forms that relinquished their right to purchase, possess and use firearms. 

    “There is a certain irony to saying to someone you have to be mentally competent to sign this statement that says you’re not mentally competent to have a gun,” Paul noted, adding “So there is that that might be a quandary if you get into a court of law. How someone that’s mentally incompetent to own a gun could be competent to sign away their gun rights.”

    “I think the whole problem we have right now is that there’s a burden upon the FBI to prove to the American public that they are not partisan,” Paul said, adding “This goes back to 2016 when they used a foreign intelligence warrant to go after Donald Trump and his campaign.”

    “A foreign intelligence warrant which should be used on foreigners in a secret court was used to go after a major presidential, you know, candidate,” the Senator reiterated.

    *  *  *

    Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

    In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support our sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 18:20

  • California's Power Grid Turmoil Spurs Diesel Demand For Generators
    California’s Power Grid Turmoil Spurs Diesel Demand For Generators

    A record-setting heat wave pushed California’s power grid to the limit this week as California Independent System Operator (CAISO) called for customers to limit their electricity usage or risk widespread power blackouts. 

    Fear of power rationing led top power consumers, such as hospitals, data centers, and manufacturing plants, to fill up their diesel storage tanks to ensure generators had enough fuel to prepare for future brownouts and blackouts, according to Bloomberg, citing fuel distributors in the state. 

    The move to top off the tanks of diesel generators helped push supplies at storage facilities across the state to the lowest levels since 2019 — making the fuel primarily used in industrial applications even more scarce, resulting in higher prices. 

    Source: Bloomberg 

    “The buying spree comes as the state endures a record-breaking heat wave that’s pushed the electricity system to the brink. California on Wednesday declared another power-grid emergency after managing to avoid rolling blackouts on Monday and Tuesday,” Bloomberg noted.

    And it wasn’t just commercial customers preparing generators for a grid-down situation. Residential customers, especially ones with Teslas, were filling up their gas-powered generators this week to ensure they had on-demand power to charge their EVs. 

    Californians are learning the hard way after politicians and unelected officials spent years decarbonizing the grid by decommissioning fossil fuel power generators for unreliable solar and wind while ignoring nuclear has made the state’s grid susceptible to failure during peak demand hours. 

    And somehow, the state wants to ban new sales of gas-powered vehicles by 2035. Instead of unreliable green energy sources, perhaps nuclear is the answer for California’s grid troubles

     

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 18:00

  • "Weak Links" Are Being Exposed – Jeff Gundlach Warns "The Period Of Abundance Is Over"
    “Weak Links” Are Being Exposed – Jeff Gundlach Warns “The Period Of Abundance Is Over”

    Authored by Christoph Gisiger via TheMarket.ch,

    Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, worries that the Federal Reserve is overreacting in the fight against inflation. He expects a severe slowdown of the economy and says how investors can navigate today’s challenging market environment. A conversation with the Bond King.

    When Jeffrey Gundlach speaks, financial markets around the globe listen carefully. The founder and CEO of DoubleLine, a Los Angeles based investment boutique mainly specializing in bonds, ranks among America’s highest-profile investors. On Wall Street, he is known for speaking his mind.

    According to his view, one of the biggest risks right now is that the Federal Reserve is doing considerable damage to the economy with its aggressive rate hikes:

    «The next shock is that we’re having to put in a big overreaction to the inflation problem which we created from our initial reaction of excess stimulus,» Mr. Gundlach says.

    «My guess is that we will end up creating momentum that’s more deflationary than a lot of people believe is even possible.»

    In this in-depth interview with The Market NZZ, the market maven explains why he expects a severe economic downturn in the coming months, where he sees the weak links in the system, and where he spots opportunities for prudent investments in today’s volatile market environment.

    Mr. Gundlach, financial markets are in a fragile state. Inflation is the highest in more than four decades, and stocks as well as bonds suffered significant losses this year. What’s on your mind in light of this environment?

    The Federal Reserve is very keen on preserving what is left of its credibility and reputation because they have not been able to execute on their interest rate plans for many years. Every time they try to tighten monetary policy, it doesn’t take long for the economy to get weak, and they get embarrassed. In the past, the Fed was able to pivot like it did at the end of 2018 when it completely reversed its course in just six weeks because the stock market collapsed. It was able to do that because the inflation rate was still below 2%, so it didn’t seem to have much of a near-term consequence.

    And how about today?

    This time, the inflation rate is 500+ basis points higher than the yield on any Treasury bond, and the Fed has said forcefully and repeatedly that they are going to bring it down. Therefore, they are not in a position to do a quick pivot.

    What do you think happens next?

    Weirdly, the market consensus thinks that the Fed is going to raise rates somewhat more, maybe even 125 or 150 basis points, and then, around six or seven months from now, the market expects that they mysteriously are going to start easing. Basically, the idea is that they are going to hike interest rates significantly more, and then they are going to drop them back down. To me, that’s a strange thing to predict because why bother with anything then? If you’re taking rates up and then back down, why bother taking them up? Why not just do nothing? It’s like a six-foot-tall man who’s in shape and weighs 185 pounds saying: «I’m going to put on 100 pounds this holiday season, and then I’ll take it off with a crash diet by Easter.» What’s the point of that? That’s not healthy, it’s very bad.

    But isn’t the idea here to give the economy a quick hit so that inflationary pressures subside and the system can recalibrate on a more balanced basis?

    Sure, but what you’re implying here is that the inflation rate goes down from 9% to 2% which is the Fed’s goal within a year or by the end of next year. That’s sort of the hope. But if this would be really possible, if the inflation rate were to fall so quickly and so sharply, why do you think it would stop at 2%? Why wouldn’t you think it goes negative? Why wouldn’t you think so much momentum towards a slowing economy might overshoot on the deflation side?

    How serious is the risk of deflation, in your view?

    Due to the pandemic, we did this huge amount of radical economic policy. The idea was that it was going to be free money and free growth with no bad consequences. But of course, we’ve had bad consequences. Now, people are thinking we can just do this reactionary shock to the economy by taking the federal funds rate up to 3.5% or 4%. But if that’s enough to weaken the economy to take 7 percentage points off the inflation rate, why wouldn’t it be 15 points? So maybe, we are going to get a delayed reaction that’s deflationary, just like we had a delayed reaction that was highly inflationary.

    What would that mean for financial markets?

    These shock-and-awe tactics work with a delay, and if you overdo them, you end up getting tremendous incremental volatility. We’ve had so much economic volatility in the past two and a half years compared with the preceding decade where the economy grew more or less steadily at 2% and the inflation rate never truly budged. Then, we introduced all these extraordinary policies that work with a lag. We just keep doing them until they kick in after the lag, and by then we’ve greatly overdone it. I think that’s the message of the bond market. Why else would we have interest rates so far below the inflation rate and such a flat yield curve?

    Into this highly volatile situation, we have a Fed that is expected to do $1 trillion of quantitative tightening over the next twelve months. Will this become an additional burden for the economy?

    Yes, that will add to economic weakness. The consumer is very weak as you can see with some of the upper middle-class oriented retail chains like Nordstrom. Nordstrom’s stock lost 25% just last month. All these things that are aspirational purchases rather than necessities have fallen off the cliff because people have to spend too much money on gasoline and food. In contrast, low-end retailers like Walmart had an explosion in new customers. Many of them used to shop at Whole Foods, now they shop at Walmart because the food there is about 30% cheaper. Walmart is also reporting a significant shift in their customers paying with credit cards, not debit cards. In other words, shoppers are borrowing to buy food.

    However, the labor market is still performing quite robustly.

    It’s highly suspicious. The labor market is screwed up because of all the dislocation. People still don’t know what the future is for office work, or for hybrid work. Looking ahead, it’s hard to figure out where the economic strength is supposed to come from. It’s pretty obvious that the consumer is not in good shape. Therefore, it’s not surprising that we’re seeing weakness in some of the former stock market darlings like Peloton. Peloton’s stock is down like 97% from its high, and it looks like it’s going to zero. Zoom and all the other darlings of the lockdown are collapsing as well. My guess is that a lot of them are going to go bankrupt.

     

    In this context, where are the weak links investors should pay close attention to?

     

    The large banks in Europe continue to perform very poorly. I see Credit Suisse is backing away from trying to be a Wall Street and United States titan. Their stock just seems to never go up. Deutsche Bank fared a little bit better, but interest rate suppression policies had made it impossible for European banks to make money. In the American economy, the weak links are producers and retailers of discretionary goods because the people don’t have the money to buy them. It’s like French President Macron recently said: The period of abundance is over. The weak links are those that benefit from abundance. We’re in an economy that doesn’t have the liquidity. There is no more funding for questionable ventures, for non-profitable businesses. Those are the weak links: The people that were living off of free money and cheap money and not making any money.

    What is the probability of a more severe economic downturn in this regard?

    Again, the overarching theme people are not fully appreciating is that we have become unhinged in terms of our economic parameters versus trying to manage the economy gradualisticly, as we did for quite a while. All of sudden, we’ve decided we had to respond in a way that is not all gradualistic. We had to damn the torpedoes and just go for it. That took us off balance, and we’re having a hard time finding our footing. It’s going to take a long time to find footing, but the next shock is that we’re having to put in a big overreaction to the inflation problem which we created from our initial reaction of excess stimulus. My guess is that we will end up creating momentum that’s more deflationary than a lot of people believe is even possible.

    Do you think Fed Chair Powell has the stamina to resolutely continue his fight against inflation if the signs of an economic slowdown continue to pile up?

    He has to. He’s not going to stop. He waffled too much in the past. He made policy pivots on small changes of data, and that put him in an unfortunate light. Now, he has made a pledge to bring inflation down, and he can’t break it without strong evidence that the reason for the pledge has passed. He can’t say «we have won the inflation battle» if the consumer price index stays above 6%. If Powell changes his rhetoric, he will go down in history as a joke. He has said unequivocally and repeatedly that he’s not going to stop just because we get one or two good inflation numbers or we get a little bit of economic weakness. I’m paraphrasing here because he doesn’t want to say it so directly, but essentially, he stated that the Fed doesn’t care if we have a mild recession.

     

    But what happens if this turns out to be a severe downturn?

     

    Powell is in an unstable place right now because it probably can’t last. He has a supposedly good employment market. While that’s suspicious, the unemployment rate is at 3.7%, and there are a lot of job openings, which gives the Fed cover to fight inflation. By a mild recession Powell means the unemployment rate goes up to 4%. If it rises to that level, I think he can continue with inflation fighting. But what if the unemployment rate goes up to 8%? Then what? We know exactly what’s going to happen: In the next recession, the US is going to go on a much more aggressive round of free money.

    You’re referring to another money printing binge?

    Much bigger. That’s their methodology: zero interest rates and money printing. It started back in the 2000s, and we’ve been at it ever since. And it always takes a bigger dose. Once you’re on a debt-financed scheme, you always have to borrow more.

    What then, would you advise monetary policy makers to do right now?

    I think Powell should slow down. The Fed should actually not raise the target rate by 75 basis points at the next meeting. They should do 25 basis points, and let a little time pass. Powell can keep playing the inflation fighter as long as he’s raising rates gradually. I wouldn’t even care if he skipped a meeting: A 25 basis point hike in September, and then pause at the next FOMC meeting in November. Let’s wait and see what happens because the bond market should be listened to: Every time the bond market is at odds with consensus economists, the bond market is right. And the bond market is saying that yields are peaking.

    But wouldn’t waiting raise the risk of persistently high inflation?

    We had this incredible shock of liquidity injected into the system in the second quarter of 2020, and the negative consequences really didn’t show up for over a year. The inflation rate didn’t start to go up significantly until the second half of last year. That’s why we should wait. We started raising rates meaningfully in May, so let these hikes percolate through and see what happens. But Powell can’t do that. He has stated so forcefully and repeatedly that he’s not going to let up until he sees inflation coming down in a «convincing» way. Satisfying these conditions is going to take some time. But I think he should slow down.

    How can prudent investors navigate this challenging environment?

    This has been a capital preservation situation for the past year. Beginning of this year or a year ago, stocks, by historical measures, were extremely overvalued in terms of P/E ratios, price-to-book, and all kinds of measures. Except for one thing: As overvalued stocks were versus historical measures, they were actually cheap to bonds. Bonds were even more overvalued, and it’s surprising to people that bonds are down as much as stocks this year. The only thing that’s up at all is commodities, and that ended too back in June. Nothing is really up since the Fed started raising interest rates in earnest in June. So it’s just a capital preservation market.

    That doesn’t sound encouraging. Is there nothing investors can do?

    The problem is that financial markets are entirely balanced upon zero interest rates and quantitative easing. The Fed pledged that was going away, and they are still speaking like they have the intention of further honoring that pledge. As a consequence, your financial assets are devaluing. If people really wanted to invest in something fundamentally, you probably want to invest in something like an energy company. You actually want to have the most old-school types of assets, things producing something that’s needed: farm land, food, energy, oil. Those are the places where you can protect yourself from inflation. These are also assets that are somewhat recession proof. People have to buy food and other necessities, but there is nothing left for all of this abundance spending.

    What about bonds, DoubleLine’s core competence?

    As I said, bond yields are probably in the process of peaking out. Parts of the yield curve have been inverted for a while, so it’s very reasonable to expect an economic downturn of significance within a year. We’re heading into the lean years, and that’s probably a situation where ultimately income becomes harder to come by. That’s why bond yields have been stuck at around 3% to 3.25% for about three or four months now. It sends the message that high-quality bonds might actually perform reasonably well as unattractive as they are versus inflation. In fact, they already have. The long bond got to 3.50%; it’s up in price the past few months. That’s why I think investors should own bonds instead of stocks; bonds are cheap to stocks.

     

    Where do you see the most attractive opportunities for fixed-income investments?

     

    Because of the illiquidity and the redemptions from the bond industry, spreads on non-government bonds were widening in a pretty powerful way until the middle of the summer. For instance, junk bonds started out this year with a yield of about 5%, and they got up to about 10%. Some emerging market bonds are yielding 15%, 18%. These are risky, but they are so much more attractive than stocks. Some bonds have yields of 10% to 12% and have prices of 75 cents on the dollar. Think about what the return potential is here: If you have a yield of 10-12%, and you have a 10% price gain, you could easily make 20-25%. It’s very unlikely that you make that from stocks. The bond market has gone from no value anywhere two years ago to abundant value relative to stocks.

    A key question is also what the dollar is going to do after the recent strong rally. How do you view the outlook for the greenback?

    The dollar is in the very late stages of its strength. The dollar will go up until the next recession, and then it will drop precipitously. I have been bullish on the dollar for over a year, but I’m extremely bearish on the dollar for the next ten years.

    A weaker dollar should be good for emerging markets, shouldn’t it?

    Yes, when the dollar tops out, you should own nothing but emerging markets if you’re an extremely aggressive investor. I wouldn’t do it personally because I’m a low-risk personality type, but emerging markets will do very, very well. They’re so cheap compared to developed markets, and their currencies will appreciate, I think, in the next recession. That means you could have a double win when you’re a US dollar-based investor. But I don’t think it’s going to happen this year. That might be a story for 2023.

    China looms particularly large for many investors in emerging markets since it represents an outsize stake in many EM funds. How should one deal with that in times of rising geopolitical tensions?

    I wouldn’t invest in China. I think there is just too much uncertainty. Tensions between China and the United States are high, and likely to get much worse. If you’re an American, you might not even be able to redeem your investment. So I would stay out of there, but Asia ex-China I would invest in.

    Should investors rather buy bonds or shares when it comes to emerging markets?

    I think you would buy both when we get to the next recession, after we have perhaps a Treasury rally. I think bonds broadly will do reasonably well, and in emerging markets they’re so much cheaper than in the United States. Right now, emerging market portfolios yield about 9.5%. So if the currency goes your way, and the yield goes your way, you make a lot of money off emerging markets.

     

    How about Europe? Do you spot opportunities for investments in Europe?

     

    We own European stocks. I think in the next recession they will do better, and they’re cheaper than US stocks. Europe doesn’t have the same sort of crazy zombie companies to the extent we do in the United States. It’s the zombie companies that are really going to have problems, and the US is loaded with zombie companies. And again, ultimately the dollar will depreciate, which is another reason we like European stocks. So far, this position hasn’t been a tremendous benefit to us, but it hasn’t hurt either. That’s actually a good sign. Europe was underperforming the United States almost all the time for a decade, and that stopped two years ago. When the trend stops, it takes a while for it to reverse, but once it stops, it tends to reverse.

    You started your career in the investment industry in the early Eighties when the general environment was somewhat similar to today. Looking back on your experience in all kinds of markets, what is the most important thing in investing?

    You have to buy when prices are low. I’m not making a joke, I mean it. Every time when there is a problem in the bond market, money pours out. There is greed and fear: Greed is powerful, but fear is more powerful. Yet, there is one thing that is even more powerful: need. When you need something, you have to have it. If people need to make a certain investment return, what they will do when opportunities go down is increase their risk because they need a higher return. They can’t live on a 3% return, they need 6%. So when there is no 6%, they try to manufacture a 6%. As a result, their risk goes up, up, up, up, up, and then they’re maximum exposed to risk. Next, prices collapse, and then they sell because their fear is so great. Instead, they should be buying. Right now, the bond market is very attractive, but no one is listening because everybody is selling. You’re supposed to be buying when people are selling, and that opportunity is still very strong today.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 17:40

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Today’s News 8th September 2022

  • First Came 9/11, Then COVID-19, What's The Next Crisis To Lockdown The Nation?
    First Came 9/11, Then COVID-19, What’s The Next Crisis To Lockdown The Nation?

    Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.”

    – H.L. Mencken

    First came 9/11, which the government used to transform itself into a police state.

    Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit, which the police state used to test out its lockdown powers.

    In light of the government’s tendency to exploit crises (legitimate or manufactured) and capitalize on the nation’s heightened emotions, confusion and fear as a means of extending the reach of the police state, one has to wonder what so-called crisis it will declare next.

    It’s a simple enough formula: first, you create fear, then you capitalize on it by seizing power.

    Frankly, it doesn’t even matter what the nature of the next national emergency might be (terrorism, civil unrest, economic collapse, a health scare, or the environment) as long as it allows the government to lockdown the nation and justify all manner of tyranny in the so-called name of national security.

    Cue the Emergency State.

    Terrorist attacks, mass shootings, “unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters”: the government has been anticipating and preparing for such crises for years now.

    As David C. Unger writes for the New York Times: “Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness have given way to permanent crisis management: to policing the planet and fighting preventative wars of ideological containment, usually on terrain chosen by, and favorable to, our enemies. Limited government and constitutional accountability have been shouldered aside by the kind of imperial presidency our constitutional system was explicitly designed to prevent.”

    Here’s what we know: given the rate at which the government keeps devising new ways to establish itself as the “solution” to all of our worldly problems at taxpayer expense, each subsequent crisis ushers in ever larger expansions of government power and less individual liberty.

    This is the slippery slope to outright tyranny.

    You see, once the government acquires (and uses) authoritarian powers—to spy on its citizens, to carry out surveillance, to transform its police forces into extensions of the military, to seize taxpayer funds, to wage endless wars, to censor and silence dissidents, to identify potential troublemakers, to detain citizens without due process—it does not voluntarily relinquish them.

    The lesson for the ages is this: once any government is allowed to overreach and expand its powers, it’s almost impossible to put the genie back in the bottle. As Harvard constitutional law professor Laurence Tribe recognizes, “The dictatorial hunger for power is insatiable.

    Indeed, the history of the United States is a testament to the old adage that liberty decreases as government (and government bureaucracy) grows. To put it another way, as government expands, liberty contracts.

    In this way, every crisis since the nation’s early beginnings has become a make-work opportunity for the government.

    Each crisis has also been a test to see how far “we the people” would allow the government to sidestep the Constitution in the so-called name of national security; a test to see how well we have assimilated the government’s lessons in compliance, fear and police state tactics; a test to see how quickly we’ll march in lockstep with the government’s dictates, no questions asked; and a test to see how little resistance we offer up to the government’s power grabs when made in the name of national security.

    Most critically of all, it has been a test to see whether the Constitution—and our commitment to the principles enshrined in the Bill of Rights—could survive a national crisis and true state of emergency.

    Unfortunately, we’ve been failing this particular test for a long time now.

    Indeed, the powers-that-be have been pushing our buttons and herding us along like so much cattle since World War II, at least, starting with the Japanese attacks on Pearl Harbor, which not only propelled the U.S. into World War II but also unified the American people in their opposition to a common enemy.

    That fear of attack by foreign threats, conveniently torqued by the growing military industrial complex, in turn gave rise to the Cold War era’s “Red Scare.” Promulgated through government propaganda, paranoia and manipulation, anti-Communist sentiments boiled over into a mass hysteria that viewed anyone and everyone as suspect: your friends, the next-door neighbor, even your family members could be a Communist subversive.

    This hysteria, which culminated in hearings before the House Un-American Activities Committee, where hundreds of Americans were called before Congress to testify about their so-called Communist affiliations and intimidated into making false confessions, also paved the way for the rise of an all-knowing, all-seeing governmental surveillance state.

    By the time 9/11 rolled around, all George W. Bush had to do was claim the country was being invaded by terrorists, and the government used the USA Patriot Act to claim greater powers to spy, search, detain and arrest American citizens in order to keep America safe.

    By way of the National Defense Authorization Act, Barack Obama continued Bush’s trend of undermining the Constitution, going so far as to give the military the power to strip Americans of their constitutional rights, label them extremists, and detain them indefinitely without trialall in the name of keeping America safe.

    Despite the fact that the breadth of the military’s power to detain American citizens violates not only U.S. law and the Constitution but also international laws, the government has refused to relinquish its detention powers made possible by the NDAA.

    Then Donald Trump took office, claiming the country was being invaded by dangerous immigrants and insisting that the only way to keep America safe was to expand the reach of the border police, empower the military to “assist” with border control, and essentially turn the country into a Constitution-free zone.

    That so-called immigration crisis then morphed into multiple crises (domestic extremism, the COVID-19 pandemic, race wars, civil unrest, etc.) that the government has been eager to use in order to expand its powers.

    Joe Biden, in turn, has made every effort to expand the reach of the militarized police state, pledging to hire 87,000 more IRS agents and 100,000 police officers. Read between the lines and you’ll find that Biden has all but declared war on the American people.

    What the next crisis will be is anyone’s guess, but you can be sure that there will be a next crisis.

    So, what should you expect if the government decides to declare another state of emergency and institutes a nationwide lockdown?

    You should expect more of the same, only worse.

    More compliance, less resistance.

    More fear-mongering, mind-control tactics and less tolerance for those who question the government’s propaganda-driven narratives.

    Most of all, as I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, you should expect more tyranny and less freedom.

    There’s every reason to worry about what comes next.

    Certainly, the government’s past track record and its long-anticipated plans for instituting martial law (using armed forces to solve domestic political and social problems) in response to a future crisis are cause enough to worry about the government’s handling of the next “crisis.”

    Mark my words: if and when another nationwide lockdown finally hits—if and when we are forced to shelter in place— if and when militarized police are patrolling the streets— if and when security checkpoints have been established— if and when the media’s ability to broadcast the news has been curtailed by government censors—if and when public systems of communication (phone lines, internet, text messaging, etc.) have been restricted—if and when those FEMA camps the government has been surreptitiously building finally get used as detention centers for American citizens—if and when military “snatch and grab” teams are deployed on local, state, and federal levels as part of the activated Continuity of Government plans to isolate anyone suspected of being a threat to national security—and if and when martial law is enacted with little real outcry or resistance from the public—then we will truly understand the extent to which the government has fully succeeded in acclimating us to a state of affairs in which the government has all the power and “we the people” have none. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 09/08/2022 – 00:05

  • Virtual 'Teslasuit' Could Make 'Sex In Metaverse' Possible
    Virtual ‘Teslasuit’ Could Make ‘Sex In Metaverse’ Possible

    Virtual reality suit maker “Teslasuit” has a human-to-digital interface full-body suit with 90 electrodes designed to trick the body into feeling anything from a hug to raindrops to even the impact of a gunshot. The suit user can strap on VR goggles to ‘touch’ objects in the metaverse. 

    National Enquirer spoke with Teslasuit VP Paul Nickeas earlier this year about the suit’s “wide range of realistic sensations from the feeling of a raindrop to the impact of a gunshot.” 

    Nickeas told Daily Star this week more about the suit’s capabilities and real-world applications: 

    “The Teslasuit works via biometry, haptics and motion capture, with the wearer being calibrated via a gaming PC, so can be propelled into extended or virtual reality.

    “Obviously the use cases are truly far-reaching – from medical rehabilitation, to training for dangerous work scenarios in a safe to fail environment.

    “We are extremely excited about how our technology can be utilised for all aspects of the metaverse from gaming, training to now fashion.”

    BBC’s Sarah Cox experienced the world’s first “digital hug” while wearing the suit even though the man on the other end was across the room — she felt the hug via the suit’s electrodes.  

    “I could feel it all down my back, and on my shoulders, and on my stomach … and it’s just really exciting,” Cox said. 

    Teslasuit (unaffiliated with Elon Musk’s Tesla Motors) was never designed for hugs nor something more intimate such as sex. However, the sex industry has been quickly moving into VR as lovemaking could take a futuristic sci-fi turn with these suits. 

    “Users might go online, chat with a sex worker via webcam, agree on terms, and then synchronize their Teslasuits for a completely tactile sexual experience – all the while being thousands of miles away,” The Future of Sex’s Ben Barnes wrote. 

    One adult industry source told the National Enquirer that the porn industry is closely watching the development of these suits:

    “Once they get hold of suits like these, they will hack them for sex or build sensors for erogenous zones.” 

    With how things are going and the billions of dollars being poured into the metaverse by mega-corporations, there’s no doubt within this decade that some of the human population will be using VR for work, education, and/or sex. It seems wearing full-body haptic suits might also be part of the VR experience. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 23:45

  • 'They' Are Definitely Getting Prepared. Are You?
    ‘They’ Are Definitely Getting Prepared. Are You?

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    The ultra-wealthy are some of the best preppers in the entire world.  I realize that statement may sound strange to many of you, but it is actually true.  The elite are very well aware that we are on the precipice of a full-blown societal meltdown, and many of them are spending enormous amounts of time, money and energy to prepare themselves for the extremely difficult times that are rapidly approaching.  In some cases, ultra-wealthy individuals are forking out giant mountains of cash for luxurious underground bunkers in the middle of nowhere.  In other cases, elitists are actually buying citizenship in far away foreign lands that they think will be safe. 

    We are talking about some of the smartest and wealthiest people in our entire society, and they are so freaked out about what is coming that they have become absolutely obsessed with trying to save themselves.

    Many of these individuals got to where they are today by staying one step ahead of everyone else.  That is why it is so alarming that 2,150 corporate executives sold off shares in their own companies in the month August alone.  Do they know something that the rest of us don’t?

    Of course when things start getting really bad, many among the elite do not plan to stick around to see what happens.  The following comes from a Guardian article entitled “The super-rich ‘preppers’ planning to save themselves from the apocalypse”

    Many of those seriously seeking a safe haven simply hire one of several prepper construction companies to bury a prefab steel-lined bunker somewhere on one of their existing properties. Rising S Company in Texas builds and installs bunkers and tornado shelters for as little as $40,000 for an 8ft by 12ft emergency hideout all the way up to the $8.3m luxury series “Aristocrat”, complete with pool and bowling lane. The enterprise originally catered to families seeking temporary storm shelters, before it went into the long-term apocalypse business. The company logo, complete with three crucifixes, suggests their services are geared more toward Christian evangelist preppers in red-state America than billionaire tech bros playing out sci-fi scenarios.

    There’s something much more whimsical about the facilities in which most of the billionaires – or, more accurately, aspiring billionaires – actually invest. A company called Vivos is selling luxury underground apartments in converted cold war munitions storage facilities, missile silos, and other fortified locations around the world. Like miniature Club Med resorts, they offer private suites for individuals or families, and larger common areas with pools, games, movies and dining. Ultra-elite shelters such as the Oppidum in the Czech Republic claim to cater to the billionaire class, and pay more attention to the long-term psychological health of residents. They provide imitation of natural light, such as a pool with a simulated sunlit garden area, a wine vault, and other amenities to make the wealthy feel at home.

    Of course the vast majority of us don’t have lots of extra money to spend on a giant underground bunker.

    But for those that can afford it, I certainly can’t blame them for wanting one.

    Things are going to get really bad in the years ahead.

    Other ultra-wealthy individuals are shelling out cash for “golden passports” that grant them citizenship in a second country…

    Loaded liberals are forking out millions of dollars for ‘golden passports’ because they are scared of a Trump-led civil war in 2024, immigration lawyers have revealed.

    The wealthy wokes are spending huge sums to bag visas that allow them escape to countries like Austria, Turkey, Jordan and the Caribbean, according to attorneys running the processes.

    Consultants say they’ve seen a massive spike in interest for citizenships for second countries over the last few years.

    In theory, such a plan sounds good.

    If things get crazy in the United States, just hop on a private plane and head to a nice peaceful nation on the other side of the planet.

    But what if we are facing emergencies that are truly global in nature?

    In that case, such a plan may not work as well.

    If you would like a “golden passport” in the future, you might want to start saving up your money, because they aren’t cheap

    The cost of acquired citizenship ranges from the low six-figures to many millions of dollars.

    Some Atlantic islands are ultimately affordable, while chic-European countries will cost you a pretty-penny.

    Sadly, the vast majority of the population simply cannot afford to do much at all to prepare for the hard times that are approaching because most people are just barely scraping by these days.

    In fact, many Americans that are working as hard as they can “do not earn enough to cover a basic family budget”

    More than one-third of U.S. families that work full time year-round do not earn enough to cover a basic family budget, according to a recent report from researchers at Brandeis University’s diversitydatakids.org program at the Institute for Child, Youth and Family Policy.

    The situation is even more dire for Black and Hispanic families, according to the report. More than half cannot afford basic needs, compared to 25% of white families and 23% of Asian and Pacific Islander families. Inequities remain even when controlling for education and occupation.

    I was stunned when I first came across those numbers.

    And things are particularly bad for families that are considered to be “low income”

    For low-income families – those whose income falls below 200% of the supplemental poverty measure, or $52,492 for two adults and two related children in 2020 it’s – 77% who can’t pay the bills despite working full time.

    In 2020, more than a quarter of the population, 89.7 million people, were considered low income per the Population Reference Bureau, a nonprofit that collects statistics for research on the health and structure of populations.

    So many people out there are just trying to survive from month to month.

    In an article that I posted a couple of days ago, I mentioned the fact that about 20 million households in the United States are currently behind on their utility bills.

    If you can’t even pay your power bill, of course you don’t have any money for prepping.

    Survey after survey has shown that well over half of the country is living paycheck to paycheck, and that means that the majority of the population simply does not have the resources necessary to adequately prepare for what is ahead of us.

    But the elite have more cash than they know what to do with, and they are spending big to try to ensure that they will survive whatever happens.

    If you have the resources to do so, I would encourage you to also work feverishly to get prepared before the window of opportunity that we currently have closes completely.

    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 23:25

  • Putin Threatens "Scam" Ukraine Grain Export Deal, Says Most Ships Diverted To EU
    Putin Threatens “Scam” Ukraine Grain Export Deal, Says Most Ships Diverted To EU

    President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday threatened to abandon the UN-brokered Ukraine grain export deal which has lately been declared by Turkey to be a ‘success’ – given at this point dozens of cargo ships have now traversed the Black Sea from Ukrainian ports since the agreement signed in Istanbul went into effect. 

    The Russian leader alleged while giving an opening speech before the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on Wednesday that Western powers are acting “like colonial powers” and using the deal deceptively. He described that while Western officials decried Russia’s blocking food from getting to global south countries, such as in Africa or in Asia, the reality is that most of the ships to depart through the ‘safety corridor’ so far have ended up in Europe, according to his assertions. 

    The grain deal, finalized in late July, was preceded by months of EU and US officials decrying Moscow policies in blockading Ukraine’s coast, which they said would cause famine in the developing world – heavily reliant on grain from the region. The Kremlin response was to blame Ukraine’s military for mining its own ports. 

    “What we see is a brazen deception … a deception by the international community of our partners in Africa, and other countries that are in dire need of food. It’s just a scam,” Putin said.

    Putin is accusing Ukraine’s Western backers of “cheating” by adopting the cause of poorer countries when it comes to public rhetoric, but in reality diverting food shipments:

    “Only 3% of the grain being exported from Ukraine is going to developing countries, the majority is going to Europe… over the past decades European countries have acted like colonial powers, they are continuing to act like that today,” Putin claimed.

    “Once again, they have deceived developing countries,” he continued, saying “it may be worth considering how to limit the export of grain and other food along this route.”

    According to the figures offered by Putin during the speech

    Putin said, without citing a source, that only two of 87 ships, carrying 60,000 tonnes of products, went to poor countries, as he accused the West of acting as colonial states.

    “That’s how it is – they were once colonisers and have remained so on the inside,” he said of European countries.

    “Almost all the grain exported from Ukraine is sent not to the poorest developing countries, but to European Union countries,” Putin told an economic forum in the eastern city of Vladivostok on Wednesday.

    I will certainly consult on this subject with the President of Turkey, Mr. Erdogan, because it was him and me who worked out a mechanism for the export of Ukrainian grain,” Putin said. Putin and Erdogan are expected to meet on the sidelines of a regional summit hosted by Uzbekistan next week. China’s Xi Jinping is also expected to meet with the Russian leader. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    CNN and Reuters have attempted to fact-check Putin’s words, and are rejecting his assessment

    In a statement to CNN, the United Nations said that under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, roughly 30% of “grains and other foodstuffs” have made it to low- and lower-middle-income countries, or approximately 700,000 metric tons.

    Among countries classified by the World Bank as low- or lower-middle-income, the UN says that 10% of the initiative’s exports have been sent to Egypt, 5% to Iran, 4% to India, 3% to Sudan, 2% to Yemen, 2% to Kenya, 1% to Somalia, 1% to Djibouti, and less than 1% to Lebanon.

    If Russia indeed does either back out or attempt to renegotiate the UN grain deal, which required the assent of both the Ukrainian and Russian sides, as well as Turkey, this would mark the collapse of the only ‘bright spot’ to come out of negotiations thus far throughout six months of conflict. It would also no doubt add to growing global economic woes amid rising energy and food prices. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 23:05

  • Taibbi: The People Versus The Unelected
    Taibbi: The People Versus The Unelected

    Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News,

    Review of The Lords of Easy Money, by Christopher Leonard, Simon and Schuster, 384 pages

    Click here for Q&A with the author.

    The “Lords of Easy Money,” clockwise from top left: Ben Bernanke prepares his cryogenic journey, Jay Powell accidentally signals five more rate hikes, Alan Greenspan cheered by an ancient memory of refusing a child beggar, Janet Yellen attends Halloween Party as George Washington

    In Chicago on July 8, 1896, a former Nebraska congressman named William Jennings Bryan strode onstage at the Democratic National Convention and delivered one of the most famous speeches in American history. A populist and free silver advocate, Jennings stood in opposition to the Wall Street-backed Republican Party, which sought more power for creditors by supporting a gold standard. “You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns,” Bryan thundered, to close his address. “You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.”

    Bryan’s speech can feel inaccessible today because it belonged to an era when “managing the money supply was still in the public realm of democratic action,” as author Christopher Leonard puts it in his remarkable book The Lords of Easy Money. The fights that now take place in the secrecy of the Federal Reserve were then a near-constant concern of congress and a source of bitter conflict between east and west, rich and poor, city-dwellers and farmers. Silver dollars had the de facto impact of increasing the money supply and making farm or prospecting debt easier to repay, while the “organized wealth” Bryan opposed sought a gold standard to keep returns on those loans high. The “Cross of Gold” speech came just after a Great Financial Panic in 1893, and though he would lose to William McKinley, Bryan set the terms for generations of controversies about who got to control the levers of finance.

    On May 15, 2010, at a similar juncture a few years removed from a financial crash, a little-known Federal Reserve Bank president from Kansas City named Thomas Hoenig gave a controversial interview to the Wall Street Journal, called “The Fed’s Monetary Dissident.” Hoenig spoke as the economy was pulling out of the 2008 emergency, and as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC, which helps set interest rates, he took the rare step of publicly disagreeing with peers. “We’ve gotten through the crisis,” he said. “We ought to be thinking about the long run.” Hoenig violated an unspoken taboo, reminding readers that the Fed’s work isn’t just a technocratic process, but “also an allocative policy,” i.e. one that helped pick society’s economic winners and losers — the stuff of politics.

    Under the leadership of its soft-spoken, bearded, nebbishy new chairman Ben Bernanke, the central bank had just undertaken the financial equivalent of a Normandy invasion in response to the 2008 crash, adding $1.2 trillion to the money supply in two years, or more than it had in total in every year between 1913 and 2008. Hoenig was concerned because instead of taking early signs of recovery as a chance to pull back, Bernanke was pouring more troops into theater, flooding the economy with money with plans to keep borrowing rates at or near zero for “an extended period” (it would turn out to be ten years). Hoenig worried the Fed was addicting Wall Street to cheap cash, upsetting the delicate balance of financial power he’d spent a life trying to maintain. “I can’t guarantee the carpenter down the street a margin,” he said. “I really don’t think we should be guaranteeing Wall Street… by guaranteeing them a zero or near zero interest rate environment.”

    Hoenig’s clipped remarks didn’t land with the fanfare of Bryan’s grandiloquent oratory. In fact, it’s hard to imagine two men with less in common, stylistically. Hoenig was and is a reserved former soldier and number-cruncher who disdained limelight and believed in economy in all things, including words, while Bryan was a man born for the soapbox. Moreover, in a misdiagnosis that that persists to this day, Hoenig’s remarks were criticized as the tightwad meanderings of a hard-money reactionary, an impression that grew stronger when “The Fed’s dissident” was lionized in congressional hearings by the likes of “End the Fed” campaigner and gold-standard advocate Ron Paul. If Bryan wanted to loosen the money supply, and Hoenig wanted to rein it in, what linked them? What could American history’s prototype populist possibly share with a fusty economic traditionalist like Hoenig?

    In fact there were similarities. Hoenig’s critics tended to see things backwards, pegging beliefs of his we’d now recognize as economic populism as conservatism, and more importantly mis-labeling the bank-friendly, trickle-down policies of Bernanke as liberal progressivism. This radical switcheroo, turning traditional perceptions of liberalism and conservatism on their head, soon spread to non-financial arenas, as elite officials pitched themselves as progressives, deriding opponents as conspiracist reactionaries. Hoenig is essentially patient zero of this phenomenon, and his story is explained brilliantly in The Lords of Easy Money, in my mind the first book that makes the inner workings of the Fed truly accessible to ordinary readers.

    Leonard gets particularly high marks because the Fed — whose officials always used dullness and inscrutability to deflect public scrutiny — is nearly impossible to make interesting and understandable. Leonard pulls it off. A neophyte will come away from The Lords of Easy Money understanding the mechanics of money creation, and the bank’s awesome influence in widening the wealth gap and driving political divisions.

    Subscribers can read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 22:45

  • "Winter Is Coming": Taiwan Export Slowdown Implies Darkening Clouds For Global Economy
    “Winter Is Coming”: Taiwan Export Slowdown Implies Darkening Clouds For Global Economy

    The slowdown in Taiwan’s exports is further evidence that the risks to the global economic outlook are tilted to the downside and could imply more turmoil is ahead. 

    A statement from the Finance Ministry in Taipei said exports grew a paltry 2% in August compared with the same month last year — the slowest pace of growth since July 2020, when exports only grew by .3%. Bloomberg noted economists were expecting an increase of 11.6%. 

    Source: Bloomberg 

    Imports also decelerated, rising by 3.5% in August, compared to a 19.4% expansion in July. Economists were anticipating an 8.7% rise. 

    Beatrice Tsai, the Ministry of Finance’s chief statistician, said the trade slowdown suggests “winter is coming.” She outlined how double-digit export growth in the third quarter is unlikely, adding September exports could contract by 3% versus a year ago. 

    Taiwan’s dominance in semiconductor fabrication is a good barometer of global chip demand. 

    “While demand for integrated circuits and mineral products continued to be hot, export sales of traditional products such as plastics and base metals were sluggish due to weak end-user demand,” according to a statement from the finance ministry.

    The slowdown in exports is a troubling sign that the global tech sector could be entering an alarming downturn due to lackluster consumer demand worldwide: 

    “There are clearer signs showing that the tech sector has entered a downturn, driven by weakening global demand for mobile phones, PCs and other consumer electronics products, which also weighs on demand for the upstream semiconductors,” said Ma Tieying, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd.

    Some macro-tourists closely watch Taiwan’s export data as an early indicator of turning points for the global economy. 

    Global growth from Asia to Europe to the US has shown signs of deceleration this summer (IMF warned about this in July), with fears major economies could slide into recession amid a flurry of central banks increasing interest rates to combat the highest inflation in decades. 

    A notable index followed by many is JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The latest print last month showed global manufacturing is nearing contraction. It fell from 51.1 in July to 50.3 in August. 

    To sum up, consumer demand is weakening in an environment of high inflation. Central banks aggressively raise interest rates that could tilt developed and emerging economies into recession. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 22:25

  • Hedges: Stop Pretending US Is A Functioning Democracy
    Hedges: Stop Pretending US Is A Functioning Democracy

    Authored by Chris Hedges via Scherpost.com,

    There are no institutions, including the press, an electoral system, the imperial presidency, the courts or the penal system, that can be defined as democratic. Only the fiction of democracy remains.

    End Game. (Mr. Fish)

    There is a fatal disconnect between a political system that promises democratic equality and freedom while carrying out socioeconomic injustices that result in grotesque income inequality and political stagnation.

    Decades in the making, this disconnect has extinguished American democracy. The steady stripping away of economic and political power was ignored by a hyperventilating press that thundered against the barbarians at the gate — Osama bin Laden, Saddam Hussein, the Taliban, ISIS, Vladimir Putin — while ignoring the barbarians in our midst.

    The slow-motion coup is over. Corporations and the billionaire class have won. There are no institutions, including the press, an electoral system that is little more than legalized bribery, the imperial presidency, the courts or the penal system, that can be defined as democratic. Only the fiction of democracy remains.

    The political philosopher Sheldon Wolin in Democracy Incorporated: Managed Democracy and the Specter of Inverted Totalitarianism calls the U.S. system “inverted totalitarianism.” The façade of democratic institutions and the rhetoric, symbols and iconography of state power have not changed. The Constitution remains a sacred document.

    Collective Self-Delusion

    July 4, 2019, Washington, D.C. (Joe Lauria)

    The U.S. continues to posit itself as a champion of opportunity, freedom, human rights and civil liberties, even as half the country struggles at subsistence level, militarized police gun down and imprison the poor with impunity, and the primary business of the state is war. 

    This collective self-delusion masks what America has become — a nation where the citizenry has been stripped of economic and political power and where the brutal militarism practiced overseas is practiced at home.

    In classical totalitarian regimes, such as Nazi Germany or Stalin’s Soviet Union, economics was subordinate to politics. But under inverted totalitarianism, the reverse is true. There is no attempt, unlike fascism and state socialism, to address the needs of the poor. Rather, the poorer and more vulnerable you are, the more you are exploited, thrust into a hellish debt peonage from which there is no escape.

    Social services, from education to health care, are anemic, nonexistent or privatized to gouge the impoverished. Further ravaged by 8.5 percent inflation, wages have decelerated sharply since 1979. Jobs often do not offer benefits or security.

    [You can watch an interview I conducted in 2014 with Sheldon Wolin here.]

    In my book America: The Farewell Tour, I examined the social indicators of a nation in serious trouble. Life expectancy in the U.S. fell in 2021, for the second year in a row. There have been over 300 mass shootings this year. Close to a million people have died from drug overdoses since 1999. There are an average of 132 suicides every day. Nearly 42 percent of  the country is classified as obese, with one in 11 adults considered severely obese.

    These diseases of despair are rooted in the disconnect between a society’s expectations of a better future and the reality of a system that does not provide a meaningful place for its citizens. Loss of a sustainable income and social stagnation causes more than financial distress.

    Diseased Society

    Evicted from their homes, Seattle. (Joe Lauria)

    As Émile Durkheim points out in The Division of Labor in Society, it severs the social bonds that give us meaning. A decline in status and power, an inability to advance, a lack of education and adequate health care, and a loss of hope result in crippling forms of humiliation. This humiliation fuels loneliness, frustration, anger and feelings of worthlessness. 

    In Hitler and the Germans, the political philosopher Eric Voegelin dismisses the idea that Hitler — gifted in oratory and political opportunism but poorly educated and vulgar — mesmerized and seduced the German people. The Germans, he writes, supported Hitler and the “grotesque, marginal figures” surrounding him because he embodied the pathologies of a diseased society, one beset by economic collapse and hopelessness.

    Voegelin defines stupidity as a “loss of reality.” The loss of reality means a “stupid” person cannot “rightly orient his action in the world, in which he lives.” The demagogue, who is always an idiote, is not a freak or social mutation. The demagogue expresses the society’s zeitgeist.

    The acceleration of deindustrialization by the 1970s, as I write in America, The Farewell Tour, created a crisis that forced the ruling elites to devise a new political paradigm, as Stuart Hall explains in Policing the Crisis. Trumpeted by a compliant media, this paradigm shifted its focus from the common good to race, crime and law and order.  It told those undergoing profound economic and political change that their suffering stemmed not from rampant militarism and corporate greed but from a threat to national integrity.

    The old consensus that buttressed New Deal programs and the welfare state was attacked as enabling criminal Black youth, “welfare queens” and other alleged social parasites. This opened the door to a faux populism, begun by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, which supposedly championed family values, traditional morality, individual autonomy, law and order, the Christian faith and the return to a mythical past, at least for white Americans.

    The Democratic Party, especially under Bill Clinton, moved steadily to the right until it became largely indistinguishable from the establishment Republican Party to which it is now allied. Donald Trump, and the 74 million people who voted for him in 2020, were the result.

    Political Theater

    Biden speaks in Philadelphia. (White House Photo)

    It will do no good, as Biden did on Thursday in Philadelphia, to demonize Trump and his supporters in the way they demonize Biden and the Democrats. Biden, raising clenched fists, backlit by Stygian red lights and flanked by two U.S. Marines in dress uniforms, announced from his Dantesque stage set that “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our Republic.” 

    Trump called the speech the most “vicious, hateful and divisive speech ever delivered by an American president” and attacked Biden as “an enemy of the state.” 

    Biden’s frontal assault widens the divide. It solidifies a system where voters do not vote for what they want, since neither side delivers anything of substance, but against what they despise. Biden did not address our socioeconomic crisis or offer solutions. It was political theater.

    Anti-politics masquerades as politics. No sooner does one money-drenched election cycle end, the next one begins, perpetuating what Wolin calls “politics without politics.” These elections do not permit citizens to participate in power.

    The public is allowed to voice opinions to scripted questions, which are repackaged by publicists, pollsters, political consultants and advertisers and fed back to them. Few races, including only 14 percent of congres­sional districts, are considered competitive. Politicians do not campaign on substantial issues but on skillfully manufactured political personalities and emotionally charged culture wars. 

    Omnipotence 

    The Pentagon. (Joe Lauria)

    The militarists, who have created a state within a state and who plunge us into one military debacle after another, consuming half of all discretionary spending, are omnipotent. The corporations and billionaires, which orchestrated a virtual tax boycott and gutted regulation and oversight, are omnipotent.

    The industrialists who wrote trade deals to profit from unemployment and underemployment of U.S. workers and sweatshop labor overseas are omnipotent. The insurance and pharmaceutical industries that run the healthcare system, whose primary concern is profit not health and who are responsible for 16 percent of the worldwide reported deaths from COVID-19 although we are less than 5 percent of the global population, are omnipotent.

    The intelligence agencies that carry out wholesale surveillance of the public are omnipotent.

    The courts that reinterpret laws to strip them of their original meaning to ensure corporate control and excuse corporate crimes, are omnipotent. The courts gave us Citizens United, for example, which permits unlimited corporate financing of elections by claiming it upholds the right to petition the government and is a form of free speech.

    Spectacle

    July 4, 2019, parade in Washington, D.C. (Joe Lauria)

    Politics is spectacle, a tawdry carnival act where the constant jockeying for power by the ruling class dominates the news cycles, as if politics were a race to the Super Bowl. The real business of ruling is hidden, carried out by corporate lobbyists who write the legislation, banks that loot the Treasury, the war industry and an oligarchy that determines who gets elected and who does not. It is impossible to vote against the interests of Goldman Sachs, the fossil fuel industry or Raytheon, no matter which party is in office.

    The moment any segment of the population, left or right, refuses to participate in this illusion, the face of inverted totalitarianism resembles the face of classical totalitarianism, as Julian Assange is experiencing.

    Our corporate overlords and militarists prefer the decorum of George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden. But they worked closely with Trump and are willing to do so again.

    What they will not allow are reformers such as Bernie Sanders, who might challenge, however tepidly, their obscene accumulation of wealth and power. This inability to reform, to restore democratic participation and address social inequality, means the inevitable death of the republic.

    Biden and the Democrats rail against the cultish Republican Party and their threat to democracy, but they too are the problem.

    *  *  *

    Author’s Note to Readers: There is now no way left for me to continue to write a weekly column for ScheerPost and produce my weekly television show without your help. The walls are closing in, with startling rapidity, on independent journalism, with the elites, including the Democratic Party elites, clamoring for more and more censorship. Bob Scheer, who runs ScheerPost on a shoestring budget, and I will not waiver in our commitment to independent and honest journalism, and we will never put ScheerPost behind a paywall, charge a subscription for it, sell your data or accept advertising. Please, if you can, sign up at chrishedges.substack.com so I can continue to post my Monday column on ScheerPost and produce my weekly television show, “The Chris Hedges Report.”

    This column is from Scheerpostfor which Chris Hedges writes a regular columnClick here to sign up for email alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 22:05

  • Xi's First Overseas Meeting In Years Will Be With Putin In Uzbekistan Next Week
    Xi’s First Overseas Meeting In Years Will Be With Putin In Uzbekistan Next Week

    Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed Wednesday while addressing the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok that he will soon meet in person with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which will mark a significant first bilateral summit since Russia launched the Ukraine invasion on Feb.24. 

    Putin told the forum held in Russia’s far east that “I hope to see Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan soon.” As we described earlier, the Chinese delegation was the largest in attendance for the annual economic meeting.

    Kremlin officials also confirmed to the Associated Press that “Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to meet next week at summit in Uzbekistan.” The two large nuclear-armed nations also just wrapped up a week of joint war games, among multiple other nations represented, at Vostok 2022 in the same far eastern region of Russia.

    CNN notes that “On Wednesday, China’s number three leader Li Zhanshu, a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo Standing Committee, became the highest ranking official to leave China since 2020, when he arrived in Vladivostok to attend the Eastern Economic Forum. Li was expected to meet Putin on Wednesday, according to Tass.”

    As for President Xi, he rarely leaves the country, and the Uzbekistan summit will be his first overseas trip since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

    Russia’s ambassador to Beijing Andrey Denisov described the significance in state media:

    “This summit promises to be interesting, because it will be the first full-fledged summit since the pandemic,” Denisov said, according to Tass.

    “I do not want to say that online summits are not full-fledged, but still, direct communication between leaders is a different quality of discussion … We are planning a serious, full-fledged meeting of our leaders with a detailed agenda, which we are now, in fact, working on with our Chinese partners,” the diplomat said.

    On Tuesday the Kremlin had issued a statement underscoring the importance growing Chinese cooperation: “Russia-China relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation are developing progressively,” it said just ahead of Putin’s address to the EEF.

    The statement further hailed “China’s balanced approach to the Ukraine crisis” and its “understanding” of what’s driving Moscow’s ‘special operation’ in Ukraine. 

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    Just days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow and Beijing had declared a “no limits” partnership amid a growing standoff with the West, which has since included unprecedented sanctions and economic war against Russia as punishment for its military offensive.

    In October, Russia and China held joint naval drills in the Sea of Japan. Days later, Russian and Chinese warships held their first joint patrols in the western Pacific. The next month, South Korea’s military said it had scrambled fighter jets after two Chinese and seven Russian warplanes intruded into its air defense identification zone during what Beijing called regular training. Thus it’s clear that the past years have seen these two nuclear-armed superpowers grow in not only economic cooperation but military coordination as well.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 21:45

  • ECB Preview: 50 or 75?
    ECB Preview: 50 or 75?

    Submitted by Newsquawk

    Summary:

    • Up until a few weeks ago, expectations for the September meeting had been coalescing around the prospect of an additional 50bps hike by the ECB, taking the deposit rate to 0.5%. However, a source report on 26th August revealed that some policymakers wish to discuss a 75bps rate rise due to the deterioration in the inflation outlook, with the prospect of a looming recession not a justification for slowing or halting policy normalisation.
    • Thereafter, a speech by Germany’s Schnabel reinforced the Governing Council’s tightening ambitions by noting that both the likelihood and the cost of current high inflation becoming entrenched in expectations are uncomfortably high, and she added that central banks need to act forcefully in this environment.
    • August HICP data saw the headline rate climb to 9.1% Y/Y from 8.9%, and the super-core metric advance to 4.3% Y/Y from 4.0%, prompting concerns that second-round effects from energy inflation are making their way through the economy.
    • Accordingly, the likes of Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, BofA, JPM and several others adjusted their calls in favour of a 75bps move, an outcome that markets are currently assigning with an approximate 95% probability. Looking further ahead, markets are pricing just under 175bps of tightening by year-end (including September).
    • Elsewhere, aspects of the Q&A will likely focus on the ECB’s plans for its APP reinvestments after reports suggested that it could begin discussing ending reinvestments, albeit a decision is not expected to be forthcoming with rates viewed as the preferred tool for tightening.
    • The accompanying staff economic forecasts will likely see upward revisions to the 2022 and 2023 inflation projections of 6.8% and 3.5% respectively, with Morgan Stanley pencilling in an upgrade to the 2024 forecast of 2.1% to 2.2%. From a growth perspective, 2022 GDP is expected to forecast trivially higher at 2.9% vs. 2.8% in June, with 2023 growth expected to be cut to 0.4% from 2.1%.

    PRIOR MEETING: Despite expectations for a 25bps hike across the ECB’s three key rates, policymakers opted to “go big” and deliver 50bps worth of tightening, taking the deposit rate to 0% and therefore drawing a line under the Bank’s NIRP. Alongside this, the Bank refrained from providing explicit guidance for the September meeting and instead adopted a meeting-by-meeting approach. The Governing Council was also able to agree on an anti-fragmentation tool named the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), aimed at ensuring that the monetary policy stance is transmitted smoothly across all euro area countries. That said, PEPP will remain the first line of defence to counter risks to the transmission mechanism related to the pandemic. President Lagarde said that the Governing Council rallied around the consensus of a 50bps hike and that the ECB is accelerating the normalisation process, but not changing the ultimate point of arrival. In terms of the details of TPI, Lagarde noted that all nations are eligible, the ECB is capable of “going big” on the instrument, whilst the activation of TPI is at the discretion of the Governing Council. Furthermore, the followup press release noted that purchases under TPI could be suspended if it is judged that persistent tensions are due to country fundamentals.

    RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: August inflation metrics continued to advance further with Y/Y HICP climbing to 9.1% from 8.9% and the super-core metric advancing to 4.3% from 4.0%, prompting concerns that second-round effects from energy inflation are making their way through the economy. The Eurozone’s 5y5y inflation expectations metric sits around 2.16% compared to 2.05% at the time of the July meeting. From a growth perspective, Q2 Q/Q GDP was revised lower to 0.6% from 0.7%. The more timely PMI data showed the August composite-wide metric falling to 48.9 from 49.9 amid a decline in services to 49.8 from 51.2 and a drop in manufacturing to 46.9 from 49.8. The report made for grim reading with S&P Global noting “the latest PMI data for the eurozone point to an economy in contraction during the third quarter of the year”, adding that “cost of living pressures mean that the recovery in the services sector following the lifting of pandemic restrictions has ebbed away”. On the employment front, S&P Global stated that “the rebuilding of workforces following the pandemic is also losing steam, with firms increasingly reluctant to hire  additional staff”. The Eurozone unemployment rate as of July, remains at its historical low of 6.6%.

    RECENT COMMUNICATIONS: At Jackson Hole, Germany’s Schnabel (27th Aug) stated that both the likelihood and the cost of current high inflation becoming entrenched in expectations are uncomfortably high, adding that central banks need to act forcefully in this environment. Her German counterpart Nagel (30th Aug) echoed this sentiment noting that rate hikes should not be delayed by fears of a possible recession. Other known hawks on the Board such as Latvia’s Kazaks, Austria’s Holzmann and Estonia’s Mueller suggested that 50bps and 75bps should be on the table for the upcoming meeting, whilst Netherland’s Knot noted that he is leaning towards a 75bps move. Elsewhere, the typically more centrist Villeroy of France (27th Aug) suggested that the Bank could be at the neutral rate before year-end with another significant step in September (his estimate of neutral is somewhere between 1-2%). Belgium’s Wunsch (30th Aug) suggested that the Bank could need to raise rates to a level that starts to restrict economic activity or above what is considered the “neutral” rate. Chief Economist Lane (29th Aug) called for a more measured approach by suggesting that it makes sense to allow the financial system to absorb rate changes in a step-by-step manner, adding that “the same cumulative rate hike over a fixed interval is less likely to generate adverse feedback loops if it takes the form of a multistep calibrated series rather than a smaller number of larger rate increases”. Known-dove Stournaras of Greece (30th Aug) stated that further and gradual normalisation will be appropriate, adding that the ECB does not need to take very large steps. Stournaras estimates the neutral rate to be between 0.5-1.5%.

    RATES: Consensus expects the ECB to raise the deposit rate by 75bps to 0.75%. However, there is a notable split in analyst views as per Reuters polling with 34/67 expecting 75bps, 29 expecting 50bps and four expecting just a 25bps move. Market pricing is more convinced over a larger-than-usual increment with 75bps priced at a circa 95% probability. Expectations for a 75bps move were stoked after a source report on 26th August revealed that some policymakers wish to discuss a 75bps rate rise due to the deterioration in the inflation outlook, with the prospect of a looming recession not a justification for slowing or halting policy normalisation. Thereafter, a speech by Germany’s Schnabel and rhetoric from other officials (see above) reinforced the Governing Council’s tightening ambitions. Accordingly, and in the wake of another firmer-than-expected Eurozone inflation report, the likes of Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, BofA, JPM and several others adjusted their calls in favour of a 75bps move with desks of the view that such a move would provide policymakers an opportunity to front-load hikes and signal their tightening ambitions. That said, the likes of ING, who expect just a 50bps move, think that such a magnitude would be a compromise, with a 75bps rise looking like “one bridge too far” for the doves. Beyond Thursday’s decision, markets price in around 100bps of tightening (excluding this week) by year-end which would imply 50bps moves at the October and November meetings. One nuance for the press conference and highlighted by SGH Macro is that markets will be looking to see whether a 75bps move would see 25bps “borrowed or brought forward from a future hike” given that at the July meeting, President Lagarde suggested that the larger-than-expected move did not change the ultimate destination of the policy path. Elsewhere, market participants will be looking for any indications as to where the ECB sees the neutral rate (generally considered to be somewhere between 1-2%) and how far the ECB is willing to go above the neutral rate into restrictive territory.

    BALANCE SHEET: At the July meeting, the Governing Council was also able to agree on an anti-fragmentation tool named the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), aimed at ensuring that the monetary policy stance is transmitted smoothly across all euro area countries. That said, it was noted that PEPP remains the first line of defence to counter risks to the transmission mechanism related to the pandemic. In terms of the details of TPI, Lagarde noted that all nations are eligible, the ECB is capable of “going big” on the instrument, whilst the activation of TPI is at the discretion of the Governing Council. Lagarde later clarified that the four conditions for TPI are as follows: 1. Compliance of EU fiscal framework, 2. Absence of severe macro imbalances, 3. Fiscal sustainability, 4. Sound and sustainable macro policies. The follow-up press release noted that purchases under TPI could be suspended if it is judged that persistent tensions are due to country fundamentals. Traders will be cognisant of the upcoming Italian election on September 25th. Elsewhere, aspects of the Q&A will likely focus on the ECB’s plans for its APP reinvestments. Recent reports suggested that the Bank could begin discussing ending reinvestments at an upcoming meeting, albeit September is judged to be too soon for such a discussion with rate hikes viewed as the preferred tool for tightening. As such, Lagarde is unlikely to give too much away on this front. Furthermore, when such a move comes, it will potentially need to be squared up against ongoing reinvestments under PEPP and any potential purchases under TPI.

    ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS: The accompanying staff economic forecasts will likely see upward revisions to the 2022 and 2023 inflation projections of 6.8% and 3.5% respectively to somewhere in the region of 8.1% and 4.5%. As ever, the 2024 projection will be a key focus to see how the Governing Council judges the impact of current policy on the medium-term inflation outlook, with the current 2.1% forecast expected to be nudged higher to 2.2%. It is worth noting that the projections will likely need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt given the uncertainty of the outlook and the fluidity of the European gas situation. On that very point, the cut-off date for submitting forecasts will have pre-dated the recent shutting off of NS1 which subsequently sent European gas prices surging. From a growth perspective, 2022 GDP is expected to forecast trivially higher at 2.9% vs. 2.8% in June with 2023 growth expected to be cut to 0.4% from 2.1% and 2024 to be lowered to 1.6% from 2.1%.

    MARKET REACTIONS: Finally, ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, the team from ING Economics analyze four potential scenarios on a scale from dovish to ultra-hawkish and what this can mean for EUR/USD and EUR rates (full report link here):

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 21:25

  • Maryland County To Enforce Youth Curfew After "Armed And Dangerous Children" Spark Murderous Month
    Maryland County To Enforce Youth Curfew After “Armed And Dangerous Children” Spark Murderous Month

    A county in Maryland near Washington, D.C., just recorded the deadliest month in decades. Local government officials are fed up with the surge in violent crime and announced a curfew for young people, which will last for a month, according to The Washington Times

    Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks held a press conference Monday about the new curfew would begin next weekend and last for 30 days. Anyone under 17 will be forbidden from public areas between 10 pm and 5 am on weeknights unless escorted by a parent. On weekends the curfew begins at midnight and will be enforced by police.  

    Alsobrooks’ announcement comes as county police investigated 24 killings in August alone, a record high. 

    She said an “eye-popping” 430 arrests of juveniles this year is a doubling of last year’s figures — adding a lot of violent crime is being committed by young people. 

    “At this point, these kids don’t just need a hug, they need to be held accountable,” Alsobrooks said. “I know it’s not a popular thing to say, but it’s a fair question: Where are their parents? Where are the aunties, where are the uncles and other family members who are responsible for them?”

    She warned there’d been a dangerous spike in carjackings by “armed and dangerous children,” calling it a severe problem. 

    The last time a youth curfew was implemented in the county was in 1995. Punishments for parents are fines up to $250.

    Prince George’s County Police Chief Malik Aziz said the number of juveniles being repeatedly arrested is “deeply troubling.” 

    Gun blog Bearing Arms pointed out: 

    “So I have to give Prince George’s County credit for looking for ways to reduce homicides that don’t involve gun control, but I’m not sure interfering with the rights of an entire segment of people of whom a small percentage are bad actors, but still account for less than a quarter of all violent crimes is the way to go.”

    … and what happens if the curfew doesn’t work?

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 21:05

  • Despite Unprecedented Tightening This Year, The Fed's Still Nowhere Near 'Destination Restrictive Territory'
    Despite Unprecedented Tightening This Year, The Fed’s Still Nowhere Near ‘Destination Restrictive Territory’

    By Ven Ram, Bloomberg markets analyst and reporter

    US nominal yields are quite the rage these days.

    And the dollar is having a heyday like no other, with the yen, the euro and the pound desperately in need of some smelling salts – except that there is just no one to nurse the non-dollars back to health in quick order.

    Underpinning the inexorable increase in dollar-denominated nominal yields and the chutzpah in the greenback is, of course, the surge in inflation-adjusted yields in the state-side.

    Five-year real rates have shot up some 100 basis points in the space of just over a month, and so have 10-year rates – more or less.

    And yet it doesn’t look like we are almost there when it comes to the end of possible strength in the dollar and the surge in nominal rates.

    Witness Fed Richmond President Thomas Barkin remarking that the “destination is real rates in positive territory and my intent would be to maintain them there until such time as we are really convinced that we put inflation to bed.”

    That, of course, means that after spades of tightening so far this year, the Fed is still nowhere in sight of Destination Restrictive Territory.

    If the Fed was naive (or artful enough to make everyone buy the story) in projecting just 75 basis points of increase for all of 2022 at the end of last year, now the boot is fully on the other foot.

    Having already raised rates by 225 basis points, the prospect of taking it higher by another 150 basis points in short order is now more or less the base case.

    On the other side of the pond, the European Central Bank is prepared to be more hawkish than even real hawks that spread their wings and soar over the sky… and that means euro-area rates are going to end up a lot higher this year than anyone imagined.

    Still, that’s not to say that President Christine Lagarde and her governing council will be able to match Chair Jerome Powell and Co. in their fire power. And that will still mean vulnerability for the euro.

    And we haven’t even mentioned the Bank of Japan’s nonchalance amid all this tumult, which of course leaves the yen exposed toward 150 per dollar.

    And there is no need to shed a tear for the pound.

    If you are going to fiddle as London burns and inflation comes scorching down, you could hardly persuade currency traders to accept deeply negative real yields as compensation and put up with it with a happy face.

    It just ain’t happening, Mr. Andrew Bailey, unless the Bank of England decides to amuse everyone with fairy tales. Not that anyone is in the mood for it…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 20:45

  • When The Tide Turns, Brace For A Face-Ripping Yen Rally
    When The Tide Turns, Brace For A Face-Ripping Yen Rally

    As discussed earlier, the yen (and the yuan, and the euro, and pretty much every non-USD currency) is in the midst of a steep sell-off, but – as Bloomberg’s Simon White warns – when the trend turns, underlying processes are primed to see it rise significantly.

    As we pointed out this afternoon, the Japanese currency is on course for its weakest annual performance versus the dollar since at least the 1960s…

    … and as White notes, on the surface the reason is simple: the Federal Reserve is raising rates aggressively while the Bank of Japan is keeping them ultra-low. But the underlying processes are less obvious

    Understanding the yen means understanding capital flows. Japan is a net capital exporter, which means the capital flows of domestic investors, rather than foreign investors, are the dominant long-term driver of the currency.

    Momentum is driving the yen now, but its fall this year likely has two principal underlying drivers:

    • Japanese investors have been buying more foreign equities
    • Rising energy prices are leading to more capital outflow

    Yield differentials are having little direct impact. The rise in US short-term yields relative to long-term ones has made FX-hedged USTs unattractive to Japanese investors.

    Instead, the Japanese have ramped up net purchases of foreign equities. Unlike debt, equity purchases tend to be unhedged or underhedged, meaning the flow is yen-negative.

    Rising energy prices are also leaning on the yen. In normal times, when energy prices are more contained, a weaker yen boosts exports and therefore Japanese growth. But growth is not picking up. Exports have risen, but imports have climbed even more, meaning the trade balance is now in deficit.

    With not enough dollars from exports to pay for more expensive energy, in aggregate Japan is selling foreign assets — mainly debt securities — to get dollars. As debt is more likely to be FX hedged, unwinding the hedge is yen-negative as there is no offsetting capital flow back into Japan.

    Normally a large yen-stabilizing flow would come from Japanese investors FX hedging their international portfolios, but it doesn’t look like this is happening. The chart below shows Japan listed-companies’ FX-hedging sensitivity is low right now. Simply put, if the trend in the yen is bolstering your returns, why stand in the way of it?

    Moreover, foreigners have been largely absent from Japanese asset markets. Also, tourism has slumped. Japan has been all but closed to foreigners since the pandemic, taking the net annual travel surplus of over $50 billion in 2019 to almost zero now.

    But here’s the thing about the yen — it’s like a catapult. The more it’s stretched, the greater its propensity to rebound.

    Japan is the world’s largest net creditor. Rather than triggering a capital outflow, any domestic shock in Japan tends to trigger net inflows as capital is repatriated. With a net international investment position (NIIP) of almost $3.5 trillion, the amount of capital returning is potentially vast, with a powerful strengthening effect on the yen.

    The yen’s slide is slowing growth, making a real-growth shock more likely, especially as there are signs inflation is moving to a higher and unstable regime. Furthermore, the risk is increasing the government or central bank intervenes to stabilize the currency, or the BoJ abandons or loosens its cap for 10-year JGB yields.

    Any of those would trigger a reversal in the yen that could very quickly become self-reinforcing. Firms would be more inclined to reset FX hedges if they thought the yen’s trend had reversed. Foreign assets would be sold for yen as capital would be returned home.

    Demand for dollars to pay for energy would decline. Foreigners would be more inclined to buy Japanese assets if they thought the currency was on an upward trend. And as the border is gradually opened up, there will be plenty of pent-up demand for cheap Japanese holidays and business travel.

    The yen after such a catalyst could very quickly change direction and rally hard. Suddenly, USDJPY at 120 looks more likely than USDJPY at 160. Options currently imply the second is seven times more probable than the first by the end of the year. As contrarian trades go, they don’t get much more compelling than a stronger yen.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 20:25

  • The 'Inflation Reduction Act' Will Increase Inflation & Impoverish Middle-Class Americans
    The ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ Will Increase Inflation & Impoverish Middle-Class Americans

    Authored by Pete Hoekstra via The Gatestone Institute,

    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wondered aloud how Republicans could vote against Mother Earth. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin possibly wondered how Republicans could vote against his so-called “Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).” In reality, Pelosi was closer to describing the contents of the IRA than was Manchin.

    The IRA is revolutionary in what it purports to do for the climate. The only impact it will have on inflation is to increase it.

    The IRA deliberately sets about impoverishing many Americans by increasing taxes “on everyone” and increasing tax audits at the same time as prices are skyrocketing. Imposing steeper taxes at a time of steeper prices may not mean that much to the rich, but has the effect of a stealth double-tax that crushes especially middle- and working-class families, who now find themselves forced to choose between necessities such as food, gasoline or rent. Reports state that 42% of Americans are struggling financially.

    The political theory governing this economic sledgehammer seems to be seems to be that a bigger, centralized government that controls people is “better” — at least for the politicians — than a government that prizes the individual, individual freedoms and the ability to spend hard-earned money the way he or she wishes, rather than how government chooses to spend it for him. This Marxist view looks at people not as individuals, but as a collective for the government to organize as it wishes or “thinks best” (for whom? The government or the people it is organizing?) — not quite what the framers of our Constitution had in mind. It is apparently easier for a government to control citizens without freedoms – economic or otherwise, as in China or North Korea — than citizens with free choice, unpredictability and the opportunity to achieve the American Dream — who will not as dependent on the government to be a nanny-state for them. The government can then promise everyone goodies to keep them dependent, while it decides what to dole out, when and to whom: what cars you must buy, what doctors and healthcare you are allowed to have; what “social justice” (here and here) and gender issues your children are to be taught in school; which companies — possibly of campaign donors — should be rewarded with subsidies and handouts, and which, such as donors to other political parties, should be targeted for audits and confiscations.

    As the cost of energy — gasoline, heating, air-conditioning — continues to rise, in addition to financing America’s adversaries that produce oil and gas such as Iran, Russia and Venezuela, all purchases for Americans, in an increasing downward spiral, become increasingly unaffordable. All goods that are manufactured or transported continue to cost more, forcing Americans to pay even higher prices for virtually everything. Already squeezed, many Americans will be forced to start buying less. Restaurants, even fast-food places, for instance, will become luxury items and attract fewer customers; many small businesses will be forced to close and their employees will be laid off, creating still less purchasing power. Even if the government hands out a few hundred dollars, that is hardly enough to keep up with an 8.5% inflation rate. If the Biden administration believes that the top earners in the US are not paying their fair share of taxes, then Congress should change the tax laws. Between incentivizing the golden goose and killing it are many shades of gray.

    If all that were not punishing enough for the average American, the Internal Revenue Service will now get $80 billion to hire 87,000 new IRS agents to conduct more audits and tax-collection. The Biden administration’s promise not to increase the taxes of households making less than $400,000 a year is about as solid as the Obama administration’s promise that “You can keep your doctor [and] healthcare”. The White House has been claiming that the government is going after only “the ultra-wealthy and corporations.” Really?

    First, as the adage goes, “Corporations don’t pay corporate taxes, people do.” Corporations simply pass on the increased expense by raising the price of their products or cutting jobs. The result, of course, is that even more people will be thrown out of work and unable to buy these now “luxury” items.

    Second, of course, whoever imagined that doubling the size of the IRS is just what the American people have been pining for — spending $80 billion of the American taxpayers’ hard-earned money to target not Russia, China or Iran — but Americans? Or political opponents? On the charm scale, it is right up there with the government labeling parents “domestic terrorists.”

    Moreover, these 87,000 new IRS agents will likely have zero interest in taking on either well-lawyered corporations or “ultra-wealthy” individuals. Incidentally, at what dollar amount does a wealthy person become “ultra”? Any self-respecting IRS agent would presumably prefer to come away from an IRS chat with something to show for it. The easiest target, of course, would be small business owners and middle-class individuals, for whom hiring a lawyer or accountant to refute a claim would cost more than just paying the IRS to go away. Just think of the IRS auditing, say, a lawyered-up Amazon corporation, which, until 2020, paid no taxes: “So, Walter, how’d it go today?” “Uh, zip.” What sort of return on investment for hiring 87,000 new IRS agents is that?

    The best news of all, however, is that they are armed! The IRS recently took down a recruiting ad — at the same time as many Americans are advocating for gun control — saying that agents must be “willing to carry a firearm” and “use deadly force, if necessary.” Now, that is what you might call persuasive. It also uncomfortably resembles the start of an armed federal militia to federalize the police, replace those precincts that were defunded, and begin targeting Americans — call it the Papa Doc or Venezuela model — definitely not what the founding fathers had in mind. That is where they came in, and the reason for the Second Amendment.

    The government, the Wall Street Journal determined, was embarking on a plan, to “raise a total of $739 billion in revenue, and spend a total of $433 billion…. to reduce the deficit by about $102 billion over a decade” – in government terms, a rounding error, with your tax dollars. But not a dollar for more Homeland Security agents to address the nearly 5 million illegal aliens — including 900,000 “gotaways” — rampant human trafficking, escalating child sex slavery, and massive drug smuggling that resulted, last year alone, in more than 107,000 deaths.

    Just as ruinous for Americans but a windfall again for Russia, are the new taxes the IRA slaps on oil and natural gas — precisely when much of the world, and Europe in particular, are counting on the US to help them out this winter after Russian President Vladimir Putin turned off the taps.

    If the Inflation Reduction Act has nothing to do with bringing down inflation, what it does have something to do with is purportedly funding climate change and green energy. “The package,” again according to the Wall Street Journal, “will spend roughly $369 billion on climate and energy programs, including tax credits for buying electric and hydrogen vehicles and making energy-efficient home improvements,” most of which are made in — China. Reality, as author and climate change expert Bjørn Lomborg keeps insisting, is that when alternatives to fossil fuels become “much less expensive and more effective,” everyone will choose them without being forced:

    “By forcing up the price of fossil fuels, policy-makers have put the cart before the horse. Instead, we need to make green energy much cheaper and more effective.

    “Humanity has relied on innovation to fix other big challenges. We didn’t solve air pollution by forcing everyone to stop driving, but by inventing the catalytic converter that drastically lowers pollution. We didn’t slash hunger by telling everyone to eat less, but through the Green Revolution that enabled farmers to produce much more food.”

    How comforting, however, to see that families having trouble buying gasoline at $4.50 a gallon (down from $5!) will now be able to rush out and buy a $60,000 electric vehicle! Not surprisingly, the minute tax credits to buy electric vehicles was announced, some car companies, while insisting the two events were not connected — perish the thought! – raised their prices by $6,000-$8,500, “roughly matching the $7,500 tax credit introduced under the inflation bill.”

    If there are cuts in drug prices, ordinarily that would be wonderful – if they did not also mean government interference in the private business of pharmaceuticals and the resultant impediment to research and development in tackling diseases, among others, such as cancer, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s.

    As for Nancy Pelosi’s climate change part: as long as China “is building more than half of the world’s new coal power plants,” and all of us on the planet are breathing the same air, we are essentially depriving Americans of low-cost energy independence while enriching, again, overt adversaries such as Russia and Iran that export oil for as high a price as they can. Other countries are likely to be less passionate about having clean energy and more passionate about the bottom line. Russia, for instance, has been trying for years to limit America’s oil production to prod the US to transfer its dependence on oil to, you guessed it again!, Russia. If the US had the widespread, inexpensive oil production it enjoyed two years ago, Putin would never have had the resources even to think of invading Ukraine. The US is, quixotically, funding both sides of this war.

    Last week, the US Congress approved a $10,000-$20,000 Student Loan Relief plan – with the actual cost to taxpayers estimated at $1 trillion — with a T — over ten years. The cost of that will be unfairly dumped on the shoulders of the 62% majority of Americans — often lower-income, blue-collar Uber-drivers, welders, small shopkeepers — who never went to college. It is a grotesque reverse transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich. As Florida Governor Ron DeSantis put it:

    “It’s unfair to force a truck driver to pay a loan for someone who got a PhD in gender studies. Taxpayers shouldn’t be footing the bill for student loan relief and Biden’s order isn’t constitutional. If anything, universities handing out worthless degrees should be on the hook.”

    “Constitutional” in his statement means that the president does not have the power to allocate money; that is the Congress’s job.

    Moreover, no one will ever repay a student-loan again – why should they? The giveaway incentivizes people just to hang around and wait for loans to be forgiven. Anyone who ever struggled or held down two jobs to repay a student loan must now feel like a chump. Worse, universities — who are not being called on to use part of their gargantuan endowments to help cover this lavishness — will simply be encouraged to raise their fees even further.

    The biggest surprise of all in the IRA may have been, unbelievably, a new “Green Bank”, filled with $27 billion of your money for the Environmental Protection Agency — which, of course, knows so much about banking. It is supposed to be a “fund for clean energy projects,” but, as the government, cagily warns, “false claims risks exist.” What could possibly go wrong?

    The Inflation Reduction Act and Student Loan Relief Act and all these giveaways by the government, are yet more examples of government largess with the money of its citizens. Once again, politicians are taking taxpayer money and distributing it to favored causes and businesses, and then limiting the choices we can make as to how we want to live. It is bad policy in a country where freedom is supposed to reign.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 20:05

  • Florida 'Mother Theresa' Was Actually Running $196 Million Ponzi Scheme According To SEC
    Florida ‘Mother Theresa’ Was Actually Running $196 Million Ponzi Scheme According To SEC

    A Florida woman whose website claimed she was “often referred to as ‘Mother Teresa’ in her community” was actually running a multi-million dollar Ponzi scheme which promised investors 120% – 180% annual returns, federal prosecutors allege.

    Broward County resident Johanna Garcia, connected investors with companies which needed short-term financing – promising the investors huge returns. Between June 2020 and August 2021, her company, MJ Capital Funding LLC took in more than $196 million from over 15,400 investors. She created a tool known as a “merchant cash advance” or MCA to provide loans to small businesses via a now-defunct website.

    Garcia told prospective investors that they were “purchasing future receivables,” which guaranteed them a share of the recipient businesses’ income for months. According to the SEC, however, she was using new investors’ funds to satisfy payments to existing investors – fueling a Ponzi scheme, NPR reports. Company insiders, meanwhile, are accused of spending millions of dollars on travel, luxury goods, clothing and other items.

    “From June 1, 2020 through August 31, 2021, the MJ Companies misused investor funds by making payments totaling at least $61.8 million to sales agents for promoting investments in the MJ Companies,” reads a new complaint against unlicensed broker, Pavel Ruiz.

    The SEC also alleges that MJ Capital used unlicensed brokers and sales agents to sell unregistered securities. Supporting the scheme, the authorities allege, was Pavel Ruiz, 29, an MJ Capital board member whose sales team of some 70 agents allegedly reeled in at least $46 million from more than 5,100 investors.

    Ruiz reaped large rewards from his work, allegedly taking in $292,000 in commissions. But he also diverted some $7.7 million directly into his personal accounts or ones he controlled, according to the SEC. It says he used some of the money to “purchase crypto assets and a luxury vehicle.” -NPR

    After initially filing a complaint against Garcia last year, a federal judge has since frozen her companies’ assets and ordered them into receivership.

    Last week, the SEC filed the second complaint – this one against Ruiz, which came on the same day as the US Attorney’s Office in the Southern District of Florida accused the unlicensed broker of conspiracy to commit wire fraud – which could land him in prison for 20 years.

    Garcia’s name does not appear in the criminal filing against Ruiz; she is referred to only as “Co-conspirator 1,” identified as the company’s leader. When NPR asked the U.S. Attorney’s Office if Garcia might also face criminal charges, a representative said on Monday, “Pursuant to DOJ policy, we can neither confirm nor deny the existence of an investigation.”

    Last week, the SEC and Garcia agreed to a partial settlement that would essentially put the agency’s complaint against her on the back burner. They jointly asked Judge Raag Singhal to approve the deal, citing potential complications from what Garcia has called a “parallel federal criminal investigation.”

    The proposed wording of the order accepting the partial settlement states, “the SEC can address its request for monetary relief once criminal sentencing is concluded (in the event that the Defendant does not prevail at trial).” -NPR

    The investigation began in 2021, when someone created a website with a URL similar to MJ Capital’s, but which accused them of running a Ponzi scheme. Garcia sued the site’s creator in federal court, demanding a jury trial on grounds of defamation. Two months later the FBI became involved – with an undercover agent visiting MJ Capital’s office posing as a prospective investor. The agent gave them $10,000, which they were told would generate a guaranteed 10% annual return.

    A change.org petition in support “to come together in support of Johanna in this time of need” has reached more than 3,200 signatures as of this writing.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 19:45

  • Buchanan: How Liberal Elites Detest Middle America
    Buchanan: How Liberal Elites Detest Middle America

    Authored by Pat Buchanan,

    Speaking at a San Francisco fundraiser in 2008, Barack Obama sought to explain the reluctance of working-class Pennsylvanians to rally to his cause.

    “You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and … the jobs have been gone now for 25 years, and nothing’s replaced them.”

    “And it’s not surprising, then, they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment … as a way to explain their frustrations.”

    Translation: The world has left Middle America behind, and Middle America has reacted by clinging to its bibles, bigotries and guns.

    Eight years later, Hillary Clinton was the Democratic nominee and, at a fundraiser in New York, addressed the same issue:

    “You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? … The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic — you name it.”

    “Now, some of those folks — they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America.”

    Last week, President Joe Biden addressed the same issue. But it was not with an off-the-cuff remark that our president revealed his thoughts.

    At Independence Hall in Philadelphia, whence came the Declaration of Independence and Constitution, and flanked by two U.S. Marines, Biden described the Middle Americans of 2022. Only now they’re known as “MAGA Republicans,” and no more anti-American assemblage is to be imagined.

    In a speech he labored on for days, the president described that half of the Republican Party he sees as wedded to “semi-fascism.”

    “The Republican Party today is dominated, driven and intimidated by Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans. And that is a threat to this country.”

    “MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our Republic.”

    “MAGA forces … promote authoritarian leaders, and they fan the flames of political violence that are a threat to our personal rights, to the pursuit of justice, to the rule of law, to the very soul of this country.”

    “MAGA forces are determined to take this country backwards — backwards to an America where there is no right to choose, no right to privacy, no right to contraception, no right to marry who you love.”

    Biden is here hypocritically denouncing as “backward” moral stands championed by his own Catholic faith — opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage — that he himself held not so long ago.

    Biden went on:

    “MAGA Republicans do not respect the Constitution. They do not believe in the rule of law. They do not recognize the will of the people. They refuse to accept the results of a free election.”

    “MAGA Republicans … embrace anger. They thrive on chaos. They live, not in the light of truth but in the shadow of lies.”

    “MAGA Republicans look at America and see carnage and darkness and despair. They spread fear and lies. Lies told for profit and power.”

    “MAGA Republicans … are destroying American democracy.”

    On Labor Day, Biden returned to the theme:

    “Extreme MAGA Republicans … embrace political violence … (and) defend the mob that stormed the Capitol. And people died.”

    This is the place at which Biden has arrived, 19 months into a presidency that began with his commitment to bring America together:

    “Today, on this January day, my whole soul is in this: Bringing America together. Uniting our people. And uniting our nation. I ask every American to join me in this cause.”

    After 19 months in office, Biden has given up on that cause, for a new cause. The name of the game now is an old one: divide et impera, divide and conquer. Biden hopes to split “mainstream Republicans” off from “MAGA Republicans” and demonize the latter as intolerable allies or partners in our democracy.

    Indeed, the catalogue of sins and crimes Biden attributes to MAGA Republicans — extremism, violence, mendacity, authoritarianism — not only raises a question as to the state of the soul of the nation; it raises a question of its continuance as a democratic republic.

    At his first rally following the Biden diatribe, Trump called the president “an enemy of the state” and Biden’s speech, “the most vicious, hateful and divisive … ever delivered by an American president.”

    In an earlier time, this exchange between the two presidents might have been settled with pistols at dawn.

    A house divided against itself cannot stand, said Abraham Lincoln, invoking a biblical truth. While the attributes and conduct Biden attributes to MAGA Republicans may not be such as to make a civil war inevitable, they surely do raise the question of whether our republic ought to endure or to be dissolved.

    Indeed, Biden should be asked what differentiates MAGA Republicans who back Trump, given the crimes Biden listed, from the Black Shirts who accompanied Benito Mussolini on the March on Rome?

    Does Biden believe MAGA Republicans are as sincere in their beliefs and the methods they espouse to advance those beliefs, as Biden himself, Nancy Pelosi and Kamala Harris are in theirs?

    And if so, what do we have left in common?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 19:25

  • Pentagon Halts F-35 Stealth Jet Deliveries Over Use Of Chinese Alloy
    Pentagon Halts F-35 Stealth Jet Deliveries Over Use Of Chinese Alloy

    The Pentagon suspended the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II deliveries over Chinese rare-earth metals used in magnets for pumps on the stealth fighter jet. 

    Defense Department spokesman Russell Goemaere told Bloomberg in an email that the F-35 program office “temporarily paused the acceptance of new F-35 aircraft to ensure the F-35 program’s compliance” with DoD rules sourcing “specialty metals.” 

    Goemaere said the Chinese alloy won’t disrupt operations with F-35s in deployment with US military and global partners because “the magnet does not transmit information or harm the integrity of the aircraft and there are no performance, quality, safety or security risks associated with this issue.”

    The defense official said the F-35 program office “found an alternative source for the alloy that will be used in future turbomachines.” 

    “We are working with our partners and DoD to ensure contractual compliance within the supply chain … and are working with the DoD to resolve the issue as quickly as possible to resume deliveries,” Lockheed told Bloomberg. 

    Chinese alloy found in F-35s is no surprise, considering the country controls the global rare-earth metals market. 

    A Congressional Research Service report found that F-35s use about 920 pounds of rare earths per plane, mainly for electronic warfare sensors, electrical power systems, and magnets.  

    The US relies heavily on Asian countries for 80% of its rare-earths needs. There have been moves by the Biden administration to increase domestic supply chains as a priority to mitigate if China were to impose an export ban on US defense companies. 

    Rare earths are also central in manufacturing night vision goggles, precision-guided missiles, and drones. On the civilian side, metals are critical for electric vehicles and smartphones. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 19:05

  • IRS Official in Charge Of 87,000 New Agents Played Key Role In Obama-Era Targeting Scandal
    IRS Official in Charge Of 87,000 New Agents Played Key Role In Obama-Era Targeting Scandal

    Authored by Fred Lucas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    House Republicans say they will keep a “watchful eye” on the Internal Revenue Service official tapped to run the centralized office housing 87,000 incoming new agents because she has ties to the IRS’ targeting of tea party groups during the Obama administration.

    The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) building is seen in Washington on Sept. 28, 2020. (Erin Scott/Reuters)

    The Daily Signal first reported that IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig had appointed Nikole Flax, commissioner in charge of the IRS’ Large Business & International Division, to lead the establishment of the agency’s centralized office.

    In 2014, Flax was among seven IRS employees who said their computers had crashed, making it impossible for them to provide information sought by the House Ways and Means Committee in investigating the agency’s targeting of tea party and other conservative groups.

    Flax made 31 visits to the Obama White House from July 2010 through May 2013.

    “Every American should be concerned that a key player in the IRS’ targeting of conservative groups and ensuing cover-up has been tapped to oversee the implementation of Democrats’ tax and spending bill,” Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), ranking member of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, told The Daily Signal.

    Nikole Flax, the IRS official in charge of a centralized office for 87,000 new agents, was part of the 2013 scandal exposing IRS targeting of conservative organizations. Pictured: Lois Lerner, then director of IRS’ exempt organizations unit, is sworn in May 22, 2013, before a House committee investigating the scandal. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

     Lois Lerner Connection

    In an email sent May 8, 2013, Lois Lerner, head of the IRS’ tax-exempt organizations unit when the scandal erupted, told Flax that she received a call about working with the Justice Department to pursue certain political organizations that “lied” on IRS forms.

    Lerner was the central figure of the Obama administration’s IRS targeting scandal. She said her computer also crashed.

    Lerner invoked her Fifth Amendment right not to incriminate herself in testimony before the House Oversight and Reform Committee. After being placed on paid administrative leave, she retired later in 2013.

    The IRS didn’t respond directly to the concerns raised by Flax’s background. Instead, the agency referred The Daily Signal to Rettig’s memo to staff announcing that Flax would run a new “centralized office” to implement elements of the tax and spending legislation that Democrats dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act. The package, signed into law by President Joe Biden, provides $80 billion for the IRS to add almost 87,000 new agents.

    Despite the computer crash during the congressional investigation of IRS targeting, Rettig said that Flax would work with Congress and others in her new role leading the effort.

    Nikole has an extensive background in a variety of roles across the IRS since 2008,” Rettig’s memo says, adding: “Her wide range of experience will serve her well as she works with internal and external stakeholders, including Treasury, Congress, IRS employees and taxpayers.”

    Rettig’s memo to IRS staffers about the new office also quotes Flax.

    “This is a historic time for the IRS, and we are working to move quickly to begin work on the Inflation Reduction Act signed into law earlier this week,” Flax is quoted as saying. “This is an exciting opportunity, and we will be moving quickly with our work.”

    Flax became director of the IRS Large Business & International Division in 2021. Previously, she had been deputy commissioner for the division since 2017.

    Flax also is a former chief of staff to IRS Commissioner Steve Miller and was assistant deputy IRS commissioner for services and enforcement.

    Republicans on the House Oversight and Reform Committee will monitor the IRS’ actions, Comer said.

    “This entrenched bureaucrat will oversee the establishment of a new, centralized IRS office and the hiring of up to 87,000 IRS agents, which raises concerns that the Swamp could weaponize new resources to target and harass Americans,” Comer said in a statement provided to The Daily Signal.

    “Oversight Committee Republicans will keep a watchful eye on this office. If there is a whiff of government abuse, we will work to hold bad actors accountable,” he said.

    ‘Frequent Visitor to White House’

    In 2014, then-House Ways and Means Chairman Dave Camp (R-Mich.) accused the IRS of “lying” by attempting to hide two years of emails from Lerner and other officials.

    “Despite their attempt to bury the missing Lerner emails on page 15 of a 27-page letter that arrived late Friday, we now know documents from other central figures, like Nikole Flax, are missing,” Camp said in a joint statement with Rep. Charles Boustany (R-La.), then-chairman of the Ways and Means oversight subcommittee.

    The two Republican lawmakers added:

    The fact that Ms. Flax was a frequent visitor to the White House and the Eisenhower Executive Office Building only raises more questions. Who was she visiting at the White House and what were they talking about? Was she updating the White House on the targeting or was she getting orders?

    “These are answers we don’t yet have, because—surprise, surprise—a few computers crashed. Plot lines in Hollywood are more believable than what we are getting from this White House and the IRS.”

    When testifying before the House Ways and Means Committee in 2014, IRS Commissioner John Koskinen defended Flax, saying she had two IRS computers and that her IRS emails should be intact.

    “Those press releases with regard to Nicole Flax were inaccurate and misleading and it demonstrates why we’ll provide this committee a full report … when it is completed,” Koskinen told the committee. “We are not going to dribble out the information and have it played out in the press.”

    A string of audits and congressional investigations found that the IRS improperly targeted tea party and other conservative groups during the 2010 and 2012 election cycles by holding up their applications for tax-exempt status.

    Chronology of IRS Scandal

    In May 2013, the Treasury Department’s inspector general for tax administration released a report asserting that in the 2010 and 2012 election cycles, the IRS “used inappropriate criteria that identified tea party and other organizations applying for tax-exempt status based upon their policy positions.”

    That finding prompted investigations by the House Ways and Means Committee and the House Oversight and Reform Committee, which concluded in 2014 that top IRS officials knew of the targeting of conservative groups and decided against informing Congress.

    In 2015, the Senate Finance Committee released its findings that Lerner’s personal and political views played a role. The report said:

    “Lerner orchestrated a process that subjected these applicants to multiple levels of review by numerous components within the IRS, thereby ensuring that they would suffer long delays and be required to answer burdensome and unnecessary questions.”

    Another report, from the Government Accountability Office in 2016, stated that the IRS still might be targeting some nonprofits unfairly “based on an organization’s religious, educational, political, or other views.”

    Nevertheless, Justice Department prosecutor Barbara Bosserman—who had donated a total of $6,750 to Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns and the Democratic National Committee from 2004 to 2012—declined to press charges after investigating the matter.

    The IRS ultimately settled lawsuits with several tea party and other conservative groups in 2017 and 2018.

    In 2016, Congress approved a provision to prevent the IRS from doing anything to target organizations or groups applying for tax-exempt status.

    Reprinted by permission from The Daily Signal, a publication of The Heritage Foundation.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 18:45

  • Retail Traders Throw In The Towel
    Retail Traders Throw In The Towel

    Two months ago, when stocks were still sliding ahead of the mid-summer bear market meltup, we looked at investor sentiment and found that retail (as well as institutional) investors were in the process of capitulating.

    This capitulatory sentiment quickly reversed however, once stocks first rose above 4,000, then the 500% retracement and eventually were on the verge of breaking above the 200DMA… but failed and have since stumbled again dragging everyone’s mood along with them.

    So fast forwarding two months, and taking another look at sentiment again, it would be safe to assume that with stocks sliding, that the mood has once again turned dire. And sure enough, as Vanda Research observes in its latest weekly note (available to pro subscribers), speculative retail traders are throwing in the towel.

    As Goldman’s Michael Nocerino wrote in his market wrap, saying that the bank is “seeing the absence of the retail investors (just look at bitcoin/meme stocks) as it’s back to school/work”, Vanda Research confirms that retail investors’ inflows into US securities continue to drop as the sell-off deepens, and suspects that “the lack of buying is originated from the increasing risk aversion of retail traders – who are waiting for a more favorable environment before trying to time the market or pick new stocks.” Translation: it makes no sense to buy the dip if tomorrow a bigger dip will emerge. 

    The lack of retail engagement can be observed by the low turnover (in line with 2019 levels). At the same time, individuals with a long term investment horizon are still net bullish – and indeed, net purchases remain relatively strong, close to the 2020-2022 average.

    That said, Vanda expects the retail inflows to slow further if equities continue to fall – especially if the sell-off is driven by the  underperformance of mega-caps.

    A better indicator of retail capitulation comes from Vanda’s tracker of total retail investors’ traded value in US securities, which has dropped to pre-Covid levels, or around $11BN per day…

    … and while net inflows have also been dropping, they remain in line with the post-Covid average. Vanda believes that this discrepancy is due to a change in investors’ behavior, as most of the active retail speculative investors gave up on day trading and now prefer to wait for a change in the macro-economic conditions. On the other side, a large portion of retail traders buy the dip with ETFs or favorite stocks in auto-pilot as they have a long term investment horizon.

    Of course, when one cuts to the chase, sentiment is always just a function of price, which is a problem since the average retail investor’s portfolio drawdown is again approaching -30%. As a result, risk-aversion is likely to only pick-up as the YTD PnL dramatically declines.

    In this context, Vanda thinks that the main risk on the downside is an underperformance of mega-caps – as retail investors are heavily exposed to stocks like: AAPL, TSLA, AMZN and NVDA; the retail tracking company expects portfolios to experience large losses if these companies underperform over the next few weeks which could eventually lead to a full-scale capitulation.

    Another pattern that reinforces this bearish view is the recent drop in levered long ETFs net inflows. After an initial rebound in TQQQ purchases during the first stage of the sell-off, which started with the Jackson Hole symposium, Vanda noticed a sharp decline in net inflows. Probably, retail traders do not dare to bet on a quick rebound  – or they even added bearish positions by buying SQQQ (most bought security yesterday).

    A more granular look at retail flows finds that investors’ flows into semis stocks show resilience as the US unveils the details of its Chips plan. One possible catalyst is the signing of the $52BN Chips for America plan into law on 9th August. The package is expected to funnel more than $70bn into the US semiconductor industry and set aside approximately $200bn for scientific and technological research. However, shares of semiconductor stocks (SOXX) have shed more than 16% since mid-August, lagging broader US equity indices as Fed tightening and global slowdown fears dominated headlines. Nevertheless, as the charts below show, the recent slump hasn’t deterred retail investors who have continued to step up buying in both cash equity and options markets ($730MM and $310MM in the last five trading days, respectively).

    Interestingly, despite its recent woes, NVDA remains a retail favorite within the semiconductor universe, with over $600MM net retail flows over the past two weeks. The stock has now slid 29% since the disappointing earnings pre-announcement on August 8th. The move was likely also driven by worries about the knock-on impacts of the CHIPS bills on its sales to China. According to Bloomberg data, the stock derives around 57% of its revenue from China and Taiwan, but that doesn’t seem to worry retail investors much as they continue offering exit liquidity to the pros.

    One place where the retail mania has certainly burst is Bed Bath stock – here, retail investors appear to have abandoned this summer phenomenon stock entirely as the company announced plans to lay off 20% of staff and close 150 stores, and following the sudden death of its CFO. That said, sporadic bursts in the trading of meme stocks will remain a feature of equity markets in the future. However, repeated attempts have displayed a decreasing impact on overall markets over time as investors of all stripes have learned how to navigate these highly speculative events. In particular, meme stock trading phases are shorter and unsustainable during bear markets.

    So could a rush for the safe havens foreshadow better times ahead? Vanda thinks so, noting that the recent rout in financial markets has pushed retail investors towards bonds and gold, driving a change in their short-term purchasing pattern. As frequently noted, retail investors’ bias is predominantly contrarian when it comes to risky assets. Conversely, this investor cohort tends to momentum-trade safe havens such as bonds and gold. So, the jump in purchases for these havens – off the back of price declines – indicates an increasingly bearish shift in sentiment. When considering retail’s ‘late-to-the-party’ track record in timing bottoms, this could actually foreshadow an improving outlook for equities in the days ahead.

    More in the full note available to pro subscribers.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 18:26

  • Inflation Now Causing Hardship For Majority In US: Gallup
    Inflation Now Causing Hardship For Majority In US: Gallup

    By Jeffrey Jones of Gallup

    A majority of Americans, 56%, now say price increases are causing financial hardship for their household, up from 49% in January and 45% in November.

    The latest reading includes 12% who describe the hardship as severe and 44% as moderate.

    The results are based on an Aug. 1-22 web survey that interviewed over 1,500 members of Gallup’s probability-based panel.

    Although more Americans now than last fall say they are experiencing hardship, the percentage who are suffering severe hardship has held relatively steady at around 10%. Lower-income Americans are more likely than others to be experiencing severe hardship — 26% of those whose annual household income is less than $48,000 say prices are causing severe hardship for their families. That compares with 12% of middle-income Americans and 4% of upper-income Americans.

    Lower-income Americans are about as likely now as last fall to say they are experiencing either severe or moderate hardship — 74%, compared with 70% in November.

    Middle-income (63%) and upper-income (40%) Americans remain significantly less likely than lower-income Americans to say they are experiencing hardship. However, sharply more middle- and upper-income Americans are struggling now than were last November. The increase has been greater among middle-income Americans — up 17 percentage points — than among upper-income Americans — up 12 points.

    Reports of financial hardship also differ by partisanship. Republicans (67%) are far more likely than Democrats (44%) to say rising prices are hurting their families. Independents fall between the party groups, at 56%.

    These party differences are consistent with Republicans’ being more likely to mention inflation as the most important problem and to rate the economy more negatively than Democrats and independents do, likely because of the presence of a Democratic president in the White House.

    Spending, Travel, Driving Cutbacks Most Common Response to Inflation

    A new question in the survey asked those experiencing hardship to list some of the specific things they are doing to respond to the effects of inflation.

    The most common action, mentioned by 24% of those experiencing hardship, is to reduce spending, including buying less in general or buying only essential items. Another 17% say they are traveling less or canceling vacations, while the same percentage indicate they are driving less or trying to use less gas.

    Other common strategies for dealing with higher prices are buying cheaper goods or generic brands of products (12%), eating out less (10%), buying fewer groceries or growing their own food (10%), staying home (8%), and cutting down on entertainment expenses (8%).

    Seven percent say they have tried to increase their income by working more hours, finding a second job or looking for a new job. Three percent say they are delaying medical procedures or appointments, and another 3% are delaying home improvement or maintenance projects.

    Two percent each say they are downsizing or selling things they own, using savings, or using credit cards or loans. One percent are using food banks or applying for assistance.

    Adults of different income levels are about equally likely to report taking the most commonly mentioned actions. However, upper-income people are more likely than lower-income people to say they have cut back on travel and eating out, perhaps because they are more likely to do those activities under normal circumstances.

    Bottom Line

    With high inflation persisting for over a year, a majority of Americans now say they are experiencing financial hardship from higher prices. Lower-income Americans were mainly affected early on, but most middle-income Americans and a substantial minority of upper-income Americans are now feeling the strain of higher prices.

    To address the hardship inflation is causing them, Americans are largely making sacrifices by buying less, cutting back on discretionary spending and cutting back on recreational activities. Some have resorted to more significant measures such as finding another job, incurring debt, postponing medical care or applying for assistance.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 09/07/2022 – 18:05

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