Today’s News 30th July 2022

  • The Genetic Panopticon: We're All Suspects In A DNA Lineup, Waiting To Be Matched With A Crime
    The Genetic Panopticon: We’re All Suspects In A DNA Lineup, Waiting To Be Matched With A Crime

    Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “Solving unsolved crimes is a noble objective, but it occupies a lower place in the American pantheon of noble objectives than the protection of our people from suspicionless law-enforcement searches… Make no mistake about it…your DNA can be taken and entered into a national DNA database if you are ever arrested, rightly or wrongly, and for whatever reason… Perhaps the construction of such a genetic panopticon is wise. But I doubt that the proud men who wrote the charter of our liberties would have been so eager to open their mouths for royal inspection.”

    – Justice Antonin Scalia dissenting in Maryland v. King

    Be warned: the DNA detectives are on the prowl.

    Whatever skeletons may be lurking on your family tree or in your closet, whatever crimes you may have committed, whatever associations you may have with those on the government’s most wanted lists: the police state is determined to ferret them out.

    In an age of overcriminalization, round-the-clock surveillance, and a police state eager to flex its muscles in a show of power, we are all guilty of some transgression or other.

    No longer can we consider ourselves innocent until proven guilty.

    Now we are all suspects in a DNA lineup waiting to be matched up with a crime.

    Suspect State, meet the Genetic Panopticon.

    DNA technology in the hands of government officials will complete our transition to a Surveillance State in which prison walls are disguised within the seemingly benevolent trappings of technological and scientific progress, national security and the need to guard against terrorists, pandemics, civil unrest, etc.

    By accessing your DNA, the government will soon know everything else about you that they don’t already know: your family chart, your ancestry, what you look like, your health history, your inclination to follow orders or chart your own course, etc.

    It’s getting harder to hide, even if you think you’ve got nothing to hide.

    Armed with unprecedented access to DNA databases amassed by the FBI and ancestry website, as well as hospital newborn screening programs, police are using forensic genealogy, which allows police to match up an unknown suspect’s crime scene DNA with that of any family members in a genealogy database, to solve cold cases that have remained unsolved for decades.

    By submitting your DNA to a genealogical database such as Ancestry and 23andMe, you’re giving the police access to the genetic makeup, relationships and health profiles of every relative—past, present and future—in your family, whether or not they ever agreed to be part of such a database.

    It no longer even matters if you’re among the tens of millions of people who have added their DNA to ancestry databases. As Brian Resnick reports, public DNA databases have grown so massive that they can be used to find you even if you’ve never shared your own DNA.

    That simple transaction—a spit sample or a cheek swab in exchange for getting to learn everything about one’s ancestral makeup, where one came from, and who is part of one’s extended family—is the price of entry into the Suspect State for all of us.

    After all, a DNA print reveals everything about “who we are, where we come from, and who we will be.” It can also be used to predict the physical appearance of potential suspects.

    It’s what police like to refer to a “modern fingerprint.”

    Whereas fingerprint technology created a watershed moment for police in their ability to “crack” a case, DNA technology is now being hailed by law enforcement agencies as the magic bullet in crime solving, especially when it helps them crack cold cases of serial murders and rapists.

    After all, who wouldn’t want to get psychopaths and serial rapists off the streets and safely behind bars, right?

    At least, that’s the argument being used by law enforcement to support their unrestricted access to these genealogy databases, and they’ve got the success stories to prove it.

    For instance, a 68-year-old Pennsylvania man was arrested and charged with the brutal rape and murder of a young woman almost 50 years earlier. Relying on genealogical research suggesting that the killer had ancestors who hailed from a small town in Italy, investigators narrowed their findings down to one man whose DNA, obtained from a discarded coffee cup, matched the killer’s.

    In another cold case investigation, a 76-year-old man was arrested for two decades-old murders after his DNA was collected from a breathalyzer during an unrelated traffic stop.

    Yet it’s not just psychopaths and serial rapists who are getting caught up in the investigative dragnet. In the police state’s pursuit of criminals, anyone who comes up as a possible DNA match—including distant family members—suddenly becomes part of a circle of suspects that must be tracked, investigated and ruled out.

    Victims of past crimes are also getting added to the government’s growing DNA database of potential suspects. For instance, San Francisco police used a rape victim’s DNA, which was on file from a 2016 sexual assault, to arrest the woman for allegedly being involved in a property crime that took place in 2021.

    In this way, “guilt by association” has taken on new connotations in a technological age in which one is just a DNA sample away from being considered a person of interest in a police investigation. As Jessica Cussins warns in Psychology Today, “The fundamental fight—that data from potentially innocent people should not be used to connect them to unrelated crimes—has been lost.”

    Until recently, the government was required to at least observe some basic restrictions on when, where and how it could access someone’s DNA. That was turned on its head by various U.S. Supreme Court rulings that heralded the loss of privacy on a cellular level.

    For instance, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Maryland v. King that taking DNA samples from a suspect doesn’t violate the Fourth Amendment. The Court’s subsequent decision to let stand the Maryland Court of Appeals’ ruling in Raynor v. Maryland, which essentially determined that individuals do not have a right to privacy when it comes to their DNA, made Americans even more vulnerable to the government accessing, analyzing and storing their DNA without their knowledge or permission.

    It’s all been downhill since then.

    Indeed, the government has been relentless in its efforts to get hold of our DNA, either through mandatory programs carried out in connection with law enforcement and corporate America, by warrantlessly accessing our familial DNA shared with genealogical services such as Ancestry and 23andMe, or through the collection of our “shed” or “touch” DNA.

    Get ready, folks, because the government has embarked on a diabolical campaign to create a nation of suspects predicated on a massive national DNA database.

    This has been helped along by Congress (which adopted legislation allowing police to collect and test DNA immediately following arrests), President Trump (who signed the Rapid DNA Act into law), the courts (which have ruled that police can routinely take DNA samples from people who are arrested but not yet convicted of a crime), and local police agencies (which are chomping at the bit to acquire this new crime-fighting gadget).

    For example, Rapid DNA machines—portable, about the size of a desktop printer, highly unregulated, far from fool-proof, and so fast that they can produce DNA profiles in less than two hours—allow police to go on fishing expeditions for any hint of possible misconduct using DNA samples.

    Journalist Heather Murphy explains: “As police agencies build out their local DNA databases, they are collecting DNA not only from people who have been charged with major crimes but also, increasingly, from people who are merely deemed suspicious, permanently linking their genetic identities to criminal databases.”

    All 50 states now maintain their own DNA government databases, although the protocols for collection differ from state to state. Increasingly, many of the data from local databanks are being uploaded to CODIS, the FBI’s massive DNA database, which has become a de facto way to identify and track the American people from birth to death.

    Even hospitals have gotten in on the game by taking and storing newborn babies’ DNA, often without their parents’ knowledge or consent. It’s part of the government’s mandatory genetic screening of newborns. In many states, the DNA is stored indefinitely. There’s already a move underway to carry out whole genome sequencing on newborns, ostensibly to help diagnose rare diseases earlier and improve health later in life, which constitutes an ethical minefield all by itself.

    What this means for those being born today is inclusion in a government database that contains intimate information about who they are, their ancestry, and what awaits them in the future, including their inclinations to be followers, leaders or troublemakers.

    Just recently, in fact, police in New Jersey accessed the DNA from a nine-year-old blood sample of a newborn baby in order to identify the child’s father as a suspect in a decades-old sexual assault.

    The ramifications of this kind of DNA profiling are far-reaching.

    At a minimum, these DNA databases do away with any semblance of privacy or anonymity.

    The lucrative possibilities for hackers and commercial entities looking to profit off one’s biological record are endless. It’s estimated that the global human identification market is projected to reach $6.5 billion by 2032.

    These genetic databases and genomic technology also make us that much more vulnerable to creeps and cyberstalkersgenetic profiling, and those who would weaponize the technology against us.

    Unfortunately, the debate over genetic privacy—and when one’s DNA becomes a public commodity outside the protection of the Fourth Amendment’s prohibition on warrantless searches and seizures—continues to lag far behind the government and Corporate America’s encroachments on our rights.

    Moreover, while much of the public debate, legislative efforts and legal challenges in recent years have focused on the protocols surrounding when police can legally collect a suspect’s DNA (with or without a search warrant and whether upon arrest or conviction), the question of how to handle “shed” or “touch” DNA has largely slipped through without much debate or opposition.

    As scientist Leslie A. Pray notes:

    We all shed DNA, leaving traces of our identity practically everywhere we go… In fact, the garbage you leave for curbside pickup is a potential gold mine of this sort of material. All of this shed or so-called abandoned DNA is free for the taking by local police investigators hoping to crack unsolvable cases… shed DNA is also free for inclusion in a secret universal DNA databank.

    What this means is that if you have the misfortune to leave your DNA traces anywhere a crime has been committed, you’ve already got a file somewhere in some state or federal database—albeit it may be a file without a name. As Heather Murphy warns in the New York Times: “The science-fiction future, in which police can swiftly identify robbers and murderers from discarded soda cans and cigarette butts, has arrived…  Genetic fingerprinting is set to become as routine as the old-fashioned kind.

    As the dissenting opinion to the Maryland Court of Appeals’ shed DNA ruling in Raynor rightly warned, A person can no longer vote, participate in a jury, or obtain a driver’s license, without opening up his genetic material for state collection and codification.” Indeed, by refusing to hear the Raynor case, the U.S. Supreme Court gave its tacit approval for government agents to collect shed DNA, likening it to a person’s fingerprints or the color of their hair, eyes or skin.

    It’s just a matter of time before government agents will know everywhere we’ve been and how long we were at each place by following our shed DNA. After all, scientists can already track salmon across hundreds of square miles of streams and rivers using DNA.

    Today, helped along by robotics and automation, DNA processing, analysis and reporting takes far less time and can bring forth all manner of information, right down to a person’s eye color and relatives. Incredibly, one company specializes in creating “mug shots” for police based on DNA samples from unknown “suspects” which are then compared to individuals with similar genetic profiles.

    Of course, none of these technologies are infallible.

    DNA evidence can be wrong, either through human error, tampering, or even outright fabrication, and it happens more often than we are told.

    What this amounts to is a scenario in which we have little to no defense against charges of wrongdoing, especially when “convicted” by technology, and even less protection against the government sweeping up our DNA in much the same way it sweeps up our phone calls, emails and text messages.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, it’s only a matter of time before the police state’s pursuit of criminals from the past expands into genetic profiling and a preemptive hunt for criminals of the future.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 23:40

  • F-35 Stealth Fleet Grounded By USAF Over Faulty Ejection-Seat Worries
    F-35 Stealth Fleet Grounded By USAF Over Faulty Ejection-Seat Worries

    The US Air Force grounded its fleet of fifth-generation F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jets due to new concerns over ejection seat safety just days after the Navy grounded planes for the same reason. 

    Air Combat Command (ACC) spokeswoman Alexi Worley confirmed to Breaking Defense that ACC-controlled F-35s are in temporary stand-down while explosive cartridges used inside ejection seats to help propel the pilot from the plane in emergencies are inspected. 

    “ACC’s F-35s do have Martin-Baker ejection seats, and on July 19, began a Time Compliance Technical Directive to inspect all of the cartridges on the ejection seat within 90 days.

    “Out of an abundance of caution, ACC units will execute a stand-down on July 29 to expedite the inspection process. Based on data gathered from those inspections, ACC will make a determination to resume operations,” Worley said. 

    ACC controls the majority of the USAF F-35s. These stealth jets are deployed in other major commands, including United States Air Forces in Europe, Pacific Air Forces, and Air Education and Training Command. The number of affected F-35s was not immediately known. 

    “Since CADs [cartridge accentuated devices] are used in the ejection process, a faulty CAD may not allow all the functions necessary to take place that would allow a complete and safe ejection.

    “While the aircraft are flyable, I don’t think too many pilots would be willing to fly knowing they may not be able [to] eject,” Michael Cisek, a senior associate at the aviation consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory, told Breaking Defense. 

    On Thursday, the Air Force revealed that 300 training aircraft were temporarily grounded because of ejection seat safety fears. Other services, including the Navy and Marines Corps, have also halted flights of some fixed-wing aircraft. 

    The defect discovered comes a week after the United Kingdom’s Eurofighter Typhoons halted ‘non-essential’ flights over malfunctioning ejection seats. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 23:20

  • To Take Back Our Culture We Need To Build Our Own Media Army
    To Take Back Our Culture We Need To Build Our Own Media Army

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

    I have been writing about the concept of decentralization since around 2006, well before the threat of the woke takeover and the culture war became obvious. The idea is a rather simple one (most ideas that work are simple):

    If the corrupt system does not or will not provide what the public needs or wants then the public should provide those necessities for themselves. If they are successful then the system has two choices – It can fade away quietly as the decentralized economy takes over, or, it can try and STOP the public from building their own production using force. If the system uses force, then it exposes its true nature as authoritarian and it encourages rebellion. One way or another, the corrupt system will be eliminated.

    We have already seen this with the alternative media over the past decade. When I started my first website (Neithercorp) 16 years ago, there were very few of us out there presenting the truth to the public and the mainstream media was still very much in control of the narrative. Today there is an endless array of alternative news websites and YouTube channels and the MSM is utterly dying (except maybe Fox News). Their audience numbers are crumbling while our audience numbers are rising. We are winning the news war because we offer something they don’t – The facts.

    The alternative media has proven that decentralization can and does work, but there are many other areas of our culture which have not been decentralized in the slightest. Most popular media is still well under the control of people that espouse extreme cultural Marxism and globalism. Woke ideology is a communist-like movement and such movements spend a lot of time and energy seeking to disrupt the foundational culture of a nation. They do this because once the old culture is in ruins they can then introduce their own aberrant and tyrannical culture in its place. They are culture killers, and they do this deliberately because it is a methodology for gaining power.

    Proponents of woke ideology will claim that they have nothing to do with Marxism or communism (while openly admitting they are trained Marxists). They will claim that Marxism and communism are purely economic movements. This is a lie. All communism is predicated on cultural destruction; this is a historic FACT. We can see parallel similarities between the social justice movements of today and movements like the Cultural Revolution in Mao’s China from 1966 to 1976. Any heritage, media or religion that competes with the communist model is targeted for erasure and this is what is happening right now in America.

    In terms of western entertainment the methods are rather predictable – Leftist try to avoid producing their own original content if they can. Why? Because most of them are pathetic storytellers. Why? Because narcissists don’t have imaginations. Instead, they take existing stories and hijack them as vehicles for their propaganda.

    They exploit an established franchise that people love and then reboot it. The reboot uses the name and nostalgia to lure in audiences. But the story and characters have no resemblance to the original mythos or lore, and audiences soon discover that their beloved characters are being murdered right in front of them. I suspect this is done with a particular element of joy, as leftists take pleasure in destruction far more than creation.

    They will inject as many aspects of “critical theory” into every product that they get their hands on. This means diversity quotas in stories where it makes no sense. They claim that every movie, TV show, comic and video game must “reflect our modern world.” Translated that means: They think they get to determine what represents the “modern world.” Their movement uses minorities as a shield from criticism. If you don’t like their propaganda, then you must be “racist.” They think they own all minorities and rage against any black or brown person that leaves the leftist plantation.

    They force concepts of “equity” into every production. We already have equality of opportunity in the west, so, they had to invent a new terminology that demands equality of outcome. Equity is about special treatment and protections for any group that serves leftist interests at the time. It’s about forcing people to give up what they have worked so hard for, what they have earned through merit, and making them hand it over to the system for redistribution to the loyal soldiers of the system. You are supposed to subsidize your own enslavement.

    They flood all entertainment media with LGBT and gender fluidity agit-prop. The concept of the nuclear family is erased in favor of over-representation of a tiny minority of people, and some of these people never asked to be “represented” by the political left anyway. Leftists don’t care. They have anointed themselves as the shepherds of all “marginalized” groups. If you are gay then they own you and they own your successes. You didn’t build it, they did. The vast majority of new media is overwhelmingly gay to the point that many Americans in polling actually believe that around 25% of the population is homosexual when the real number is closer to 4% including bisexuals and those that identify as trans .

    Finally, globalism is the overarching religion of the left, and this destructive concept is making its way into many media products. The notion is that all ideals and beliefs deserve to be respected equally – This is a lie. Not all ideals are equal, and some beliefs are psychotic.  Beyond that, leftists don’t respect all ideals equally; they despise concepts like freedom, meritocracy and decentralization.

    There are good reasons why we don’t live in a homogenized world and we are divided into separate nations and separate tribes: Because not all tribes are equal. Some are garbage, with garbage principles and garbage leadership. I don’t want to share a tribe with the communist Chinese who commit genocide and religious intolerance and who abuse the citizenry. I don’t want to share a tribe with a Muslim nation ruled by Sharia Law that murders gay people and treats women like property. I don’t want to share a tribe with leftists who seek to undermine society and rewrite history.

    Globalism is the worst idea imaginable. Many tribes is a good thing, because discrimination helps humanity to separate and survive against immoral and destructive groups that seek to covertly or overtly homogenize.  The last thing we need is grotesque globalist cultism invading our entertainment.

    So, how do we fight back?

    Conservatives, libertarians and liberty minded people have finally started to take the culture war more seriously, but now we need to take action to stop the saturation of leftist propaganda within our media. This means we need to produce our OWN media, including entertainment media.

    For decades, conservatives ignored the danger of leftists infecting pop culture, movies, television, comic books and video games. Many believed that these things were downstream from politics and that as long as we held our ground in the political arena everything would be fine. This was a huge mistake. Pop culture is not downstream from politics, both flow in tandem with each other. If you think that movies, video games and comic books are just meaningless “nerd stuff,” then you have been duped. Younger generations are highly influenced by such content.

    I covered this idea briefly in a recent article ‘Amazon’s Woke Lord Of The Rings Is The Death Rattle Of Social Justice Content.’  I noted that the massive negative fan reaction to Amazon’s woke plans indicated a sea change in the way Americans are viewing the entertainment they consume.  They are no longer passive, and this is a good thing.

    They are fighting back against the propaganda implanted into these shows and movies but they also need non-woke stories to fill the void. If you don’t offer them an alternative, then they might just watch whatever is put in front of them. The brainwashing will be perpetual.

    Some courageous individuals and companies are taking steps to build an alternative entertainment media, but we need far more. Ben Shapiro’s Daily Wire is fighting back with their own film production company, and from what I have seen so far the movies they have made are top notch.

    Libertarian and YouTuber Eric July has recently launched his own comic book company and comic world called the “Rippaverse.” The company’s first comic book release has already garnered around $3 million in purchases, which proves that yes, there is indeed a market for this type of content and people are hungry for any media which is not woke.

    Eric July has since been attacked relentlessly by the mainstream media (yes, over a comic book). As I have noted when it comes to decentralization, once the system attacks you, you know you are a threat to their power. They attack because they are afraid.

    Comedian Andrew Shulz decided to buy back his own comedy special from an unnamed streaming service because they sought to censor his anti-woke jokes. He is now offering the special (called “Infamous”) on his own website.

    We definitely need more of this. More creators taking a stand and building real alternatives to Hollywood and the woke corporate cabal. If you can’t stand leftist media and would rather watch nothing, then maybe it’s time for you to make the kind of content you would like to see?

    I am going to be putting my money where my mouth is very soon and releasing my own comic book campaign. I have been working on the project for around 3 months and have put together a great team. I hope to release the campaign in a couple of weeks. My feeling is that if I can tell an entertaining story, then I should. I want to continue with my economic and political analysis, but I also think it’s important to provide people with mental relief and a short escape from some of the harsher realities of our times.

    Leftists and woke corporations do not want you to be able to escape. They want their ideology in your face 24/7 until you give up and submit.

    The existing franchises that we used to take for granted when we were children are gone; they are all owned by people with dishonest intentions that hate American culture and want to see it debased into oblivion. We have to accept this fact, move on from the old stories and old content, and make our own. We have to become the new sages and storytellers of our age because no one is going to do it for us.

    Some people might argue that all of this is meaningless. Why worry about media and culture when we are in the middle of an economic crisis? What these folks don’t seem to grasp is that part of the reason we are in this mess is because we allowed our own cultural decline. We became apathetic in our vigilance and let mentally and ideologically unstable people take over platforms of influence. No longer. Their time is coming to an end. We are going to take it back; every piece of it, and we will do that by building a decentralized media army from the ground up.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 23:00

  • Iran Gains Access To Russian Mir Payment Cards
    Iran Gains Access To Russian Mir Payment Cards

    In the latest example of U.S. sanctions sparking new financial ties between out-of-favor countries, Iranians will soon be able to make payments with Russia’s Mir bank cards. The move will provide some relief to everyday Iranian people and businesses victimized by economic sanctions. 

    “I think this payment system will be activated in Iran soon,” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy Medhi Safari said Wednesday, according to Russia’s RIA news. Mir translates into both “the world” and “peace.”

    The Mir card system was introduced by Russia’s central bank in 2015 after MasterCard and Visa were forced by the U.S. sanctions regime into terminating business with several Russian banks. Up to that point, MasterCard and Visa accounted for 90% of payments in Russia. After Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, remaining Russian banks lost their Visa and MasterCard relationships.  

    Mir’s reach has spread to many other countries and territories, including South Korea, Turkey, Vietnam, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Work is underway to enable the cards’ use in Cuba and the United Arab Emirates. More than 100 million Mir cards have been issued to date. 

    Russia’s Mir arrangement with Iran is just the latest of many examples of tightened economic relations between the two targets of U.S. sanctions.

    • The two are also working to create a rival to the SWIFT payments messaging service that underpins cross-border payments across the global economy,” reports Reuters.​​

    • On Tuesday, Iranian economic minister Ehsan Khandouzi announced that the U.S. dollar had been officially replaced by the ruble in Iran’s trade with Russia, and that work is underway to replace the dollar in business with China, Turkey and India. 

    • Also this week, Iran and Russia entered a deal by which Iran will supply aircraft parts and maintenance services to Russia. 

    • On July 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Tehran and met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi, along with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.  

    • On the eve of Putin’s visit, Russian gas producer Gazprom and Iran’s national oil company signed a $40 billion deal in which Gazprom will help develop oil and gas fields, and complete liquefied natural gas facilities and gas export pipelines. 

    • In June, Iranian state media announced a test of a new trade route linking Russia and India via Iran.  

    Despite the West’s economic warfare, the ruble is actually stronger against the dollar today than it was before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. To the extent sanctions encourage a growing list of countries to engage in non-dollar-denominated transactions, a weaponized dollar may ultimately explode in America’s face. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 22:40

  • "Paving The Road To Hell": Digital ID Systems Could Lead To Severe, Irreversible Human Rights Violations
    “Paving The Road To Hell”: Digital ID Systems Could Lead To Severe, Irreversible Human Rights Violations

    Authored by Suzanne Burdick,

    The authors of a new report on digital identity systems warned “the actual and potential” human rights violations arising from the digital ID model can be “severe and potentially irreversible.”

    The 100-page report — “Paving the Road to Hell? A Primer on the Role of the World Bank and Global Networks in Promoting Digital ID” — published by New York University’s (NYU) Center for Human Rights and Global Justice urged human rights organizations to heed the threats posed by a global push for digital IDs.

    The NYU researchers said many proponents — including the World Bank — portray digital IDs as a means to achieving greater inclusivity and environmental sustainability when, in fact, the systems are likely to do just the opposite.

    According to the report, the digital ID has been dressed up as an “unstoppable juggernaut and inevitable hallmark of modernity and development in the 21st century,” causing dissenting voices to be “written off as Luddites and barriers to progress.”

    The authors argued for open debate “with full transparency and involving all relevant stakeholders,” including the most marginalized and most vulnerable.

    The authors, who include Christiaan van Veen, L.L.M., special advisor on new technologies and human rights to the United Nations, urged the human rights community and related civic society organizations to ensure that global decisions about the adoption of digital ID systems are not hastily made but are based on “serious evidence and analysis.”

    Where digital ID systems threaten human rights, the NYU researchers said, such endeavors should be “stopped altogether.”

    Who’s really profiting?

    “Governments around the world have been investing heavily in digital identification systems, often with biometric components,” the authors said in a statement.

    Digital ID systems that frequently collect biometric data — such as fingerprints, iris or other facial feature recognition — are being adopted to replace or complement non-digital government identification systems.

    According to an Access Now special report, in India in October 2021, digital ID systems — or “Big ID programs” as Access Now called them — are being pushed by a market of actors who sell and profit from digital ID systems and infrastructure, often while endangering the human rights of the people they’re supposed to benefit.

    The NYU researchers reached the same conclusion:

    “The rapid proliferation of such systems is driven by a new development consensus, packaged and promoted by key global actors like the World Bank, but also by governments, foundations, vendors and consulting firms.”

    Digital ID proponents argue the systems can contribute to inclusivity and sustainable development, with some going so far as to consider the adoption of digital ID systems a prerequisite for the realization of human rights.

    But the NYU researchers said they believe the “ultimate objective” of digital ID systems is to “facilitate economic transactions and private sector service delivery while also bringing new, poorer, individuals into formal economies and ‘unlocking’ their behavioral data.”

    “The promises of inclusion and flourishing digital economies might appear attractive on paper,” the researchers said, “but digital ID systems have consistently failed to deliver on these promises in real world situations, especially for the most marginalized.”

    The authors added:

    “In fact, evidence is emerging from many countries, most notably the mega digital ID project Aadhaar in India, of the severe and large-scale human rights violations linked to this model. These systems may in fact exacerbate pre-existing forms of exclusion and discrimination in public and private services. The use of new technologies may furthermore lead to novel forms of harm, including biometric exclusion, discrimination, and the many harms associated with ‘surveillance capitalism.’”

    The benefits of using digital ID are “ill-defined” and “poorly documented,” the NYU authors said.

    “From what evidence does exist, it seems that those who stand to benefit most may not be those ‘left behind,’ but instead a small group of companies and governments,” they wrote.

    They added:

    “After all, where digital ID systems have tended to excel is in generating lucrative contracts for biometrics companies and enhancing the surveillance and migration-control capabilities of governments.”

    More harm than good, especially for world’s most marginalized

    The authors did four things in their report.

    First, they examined the human rights impact of national digital ID systems and argued that a cost-benefit analysis of digital ID systems suggests they do more harm than good — especially for the world’s most marginalized individuals.

    “Through the embrace of digital technologies, the World Bank and a broader global network of actors has been promoting a new paradigm for ID systems that prioritizes what we refer to as ‘economic identity,’” the authors wrote.

    They added:

    These systems focus on fueling digital transactions and transforming individuals into traceable data. They often ignore the ability of identification systems to recognize not only that an individual is unique, but that they have a legal status with associated rights.

    “Still, proponents have cloaked this new paradigm in the language of human rights and inclusion, arguing that such systems will help to achieve multiple Sustainable Development Goals.”

    The authors added:

    “Like physical roads, national digital identification systems with biometric components (digital ID systems) are presented as the public infrastructure of the digital future.

    “Yet these particular infrastructures have proven to be dangerous, having been linked to severe and large-scale human rights violations in a range of countries around the world, affecting social, civil, and political rights.”

    Prioritizing ‘economic identity’

    Next, the researchers looked at how an “identification for development” agenda driven by multiple global actors came into being.

    They discussed the digital ID system called Aadhaar that is currently being tried out by the government of India and the digital ID system promoted by the World Bank —  Identification for Development, commonly called the ID4D Initiative.

    The ID4D Initiative draws inspiration from the highly criticized Aadhaar digital ID system in India.

    In the Aadhaar system, individuals are voluntarily assigned a 12-digit random number by the Unique Identification Authority of India — a statutory authority backed by the government of India — that establishes the “uniqueness” of individuals with the help of demographic and biometric technologies.

    This digital ID model, NYU report authors said, is dangerous because it prioritizes an “economic identity” for an individual.

    The model is not about an individual’s identity alone, confirmed Joseph Atick, Ph.D., executive chairman of the influential ID4Africa, a platform where African governments and major companies in the digital ID market meet.

    It’s about their economic interactions, Atick said.

    The ID4D model “enables and interacts with authentication platforms, payments systems, digital signatures, data sharing, KYC systems, consent management and sectoral delivery platforms,” Atick announced at the start of ID4Africa’s 2022 annual meeting in mid-June, at the Palais de Congrès in Marrakesh, Morocco.

    The authors of the NYU report criticized this model:

    “The goal then, is not so much identity as it is identification. The three interlinked processes of identification, registration, and authorization are an exercise of power.

    “Through this process, one actor acknowledges or denies another actor’s identity attributes. Individuals may be empowered through the process of identification, but such systems have long been used for the opposite purpose: to deny rights to certain groups and exclude them.”

    Third, the authors assessed the nitty-gritty details of how the World Bank and its network of proponents of digital ID systems worked to implement an “identification for development” agenda around the globe.

    They explained how the funding and governance of the ID4D Initiative operate, and claimed the World Bank and its corporate and governmental partners are “manufacturing consensus” by presuming that the shift to a digital ID model is inevitable, desirable and required for human progress.

    But this “manufactured consensus” lacks a basis, they said.

    “Concrete and robust evidence of the purported benefits associated with digital ID systems is rarely provided, it is merely asserted that digital ID will lead to inclusion and development,” the authors wrote.

    3 steps privacy advocates can take

    Finally, the authors outlined what human rights organizations and other civil society actors can do by highlighting three modes of action:

    • “Not so fast!” Organizations can demand that governmental adoption of digital ID systems not be rushed.

    The authors wrote:

    “Before any new or augmented digital ID systems are rolled out nationwide, it is vital to establish an evidence base and take all necessary steps to anticipate and mitigate possible harms in advance. Baseline studies, research into the specific context, cost-benefit analyses, value for money analyses, and impact assessments are necessary and should be demanded every step of the way.”

    • “Make it public.” The design and possible implementation of a digital ID system need to be thoroughly discussed in democratic forums, including public media and Congress or parliaments.

    “Civil society organizations should demand openness with regard to plans, tenders, and the involvement of foreign governments and international organizations,” they said.

    • “We are all stakeholders.” While the World Bank presents itself as a respected advisor to governments who should be allowed to shape and create governments’ digital ID policies, it is only one actor.

    “It is important to realize,” the authors wrote, “that, ultimately, everyone has a stake in systems of identification, digital or otherwise, which are essential to recognize individuals and effectuate their human rights.”

    They added:

    “More and more organizations and experts are beginning to grapple with the rapid spread of digital ID around the world, from digital rights organizations to groups representing people with disabilities, and from experts working on social and economic rights to development economists.

    “As this range of organizations grows, it will be crucial to share experiences, learn from one another, and coordinate advocacy.”

    Human rights alliances can ‘reimagine’ the ‘digital future’

    According to the report, multidisciplinary and geographically diverse alliances can not only help to ensure digital ID systems are not deployed “in the harmful ways described in this primer,” but can “also help reimagine what the digital future without the particular model of ID systems promoted by the World Bank and others could look like.”

    They said:

    “As digital ID systems are determining the shape of governments and societies as we hurtle into the digital era, questions as to their form and design — and their very existence in the first place — are critical.

    “What alternative visions can we offer that will better safeguard human rights and preserve the gains of countless years of struggle to improve the recognition and institutionalization of rights?

    “When we bring together actors who want a society where the human rights of every individual and group are protected, what kinds of digital ID systems might we imagine? How might digital ID systems be designed to truly promote human well-being?

    “How would this alternative, rights-fulfilling vision differ from the economic, transactional identity described here, as promoted by the World Bank and others? Indeed, would we have digitalized identification systems at all?”

    The authors did not provide answers to these questions.

    Rather, they aimed to “bring together the excellent work that our partners, colleagues, and others have tirelessly undertaken around the world” and facilitate collaboration “to ensure that the future of digital ID enhances, rather than jeopardizes, the enjoyment of human rights.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 22:20

  • "Pure Lies": China Contradicts White House On Key Aspect Of Biden-Xi Call
    “Pure Lies”: China Contradicts White House On Key Aspect Of Biden-Xi Call

    China blasted the White House in a Friday foreign ministry press conference, charging the US administration with lying after a Biden spokesperson said the president raised the issue of Uyghur Muslim genocide and forced labor camps with Xi in their over two-hour Thursday phone call.

    The controversy started when White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters soon after the call that Biden “raised genocide and forced labor practices by the [People’s Republic of China],” explaining that is something the president “always does” when he speaks with Xi.

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    “This is, as we’ve said, that anytime the president has an opportunity, he raises that when he meets with another leader, and called on [the] PRC to cease its ongoing human rights abuses across China,” she followed with.

    Except Beijing now says this was cut out of whole cloth, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian vehemently rejecting this account in a Friday statement, saying:

    “I can tell you that allegations of ‘genocide’ and ‘forced labor’ in Xinjiang are pure lies.”

    “You said the White House press secretary claimed that ‘genocide’ and ‘forced labor’ came up in last night’s call. That is false information.”

    Curiously, neither the Chinese government’s nor the White House’s call readouts mention anything regarding the Uyghurs in particular, but only an ultra-broad “discussed a range of issues” phrase was used by the Biden administration in its press release.

    In follow-up, The New York Post questioned the Biden administration about the matter, with a National Security Council spokesman saying, “I’m not going to get into a back and forth with a PRC government spokesperson.”

    The NSC official added, “The president raised concerns about human rights with President Xi, as he always does. He was crystal clear about his concerns. He also raised the need to resolve the cases of American citizens who are wrongfully detained or subject to exit bans in China.”

    …so somebody is indeed lying, given the clear discrepancy. 

    Meanwhile, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is en route to the region on her Asia tour, which might include an ultra-provocative stopover in Taiwan…

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 22:00

  • Capitol Police Use Of Force Reports Expose Unprovoked Brutality Against Jan. 6 Protesters
    Capitol Police Use Of Force Reports Expose Unprovoked Brutality Against Jan. 6 Protesters

    Authored by Patricia Tolson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A 104-page report issued three months after the events at the Capitol Building on Jan. 6, 2021, said the Capitol Police’s Civil Disturbance Unit (CDU) was ordered by supervisors not to use “heavier, less-lethal weapons,” like flash bangs. However, video evidence—along with Capitol Police Use of Force Reports obtained exclusively by The Epoch Times—exposes conflicts in timelines, the brutality of the unprovoked attacks against Jan. 6 protesters, and how leadership ordered the deployment of munitions on a peaceful crowd.

    A photographer and police officer give first aid to Ashli Babbitt on Jan. 6, 2021. The man at left was once wanted by the FBI. (Video Still/Sam Montoya for The Epoch Times)

    The Video Evidence

    Victoria White

    According to Police1, the “#1 resource for law enforcement online,” which promotes “the highest standards of business ethics,” police are trained to target large muscle groups like legs, chest, abdomen, and arms with batons. Intentionally striking areas like the head, sternum, and spine are considered to be the same act of deadly force as firing a gun.

    However, a video shows Jan. 6 defendant Victoria White being beaten over the head 35 times with a metal baton and punched in the face by an officer of the Metropolitan Police of the District of Columbia. White, seen wearing a Trump hat, is unarmed and posed no threat to the officer. She raises her hands in defense during the brutal attack, collapsing more than once, only to be stood up by other officers to be maced and beaten again.

    According to a Use of Force report filed 1/7/21 by Officer Dante Price, obtained exclusively by The Epoch Times, “approved strike areas” for use of a baton “include arms, legs and large muscle groups.” Injuries suffered by Dante’s victim required hospital transport. Another report of an injury caused by use of a baton, filed 1/8/21 by Officer Ryan Kendall, states “approved target areas” include the “upper abdomen.”

    “To add insult to injury,” her legal team said at a Jan. 6, 2022 press conference, “she was indicted for being pushed into the tunnel entrance and for daring to put her hands up in a defensive posture while getting beaten by the police.”

    White has filed a $1 million lawsuit against D.C. Police Chief Robert Contree and seven unnamed officers, including one known as “Officer Whiteshirt,” given the moniker as it is believed his clothing identified him as an officer in a position of authority.

    Roseanne Boyland

    Another video obtained by The Epoch Times shows D.C. Metro Police Officer Lila Morris beating an unconscious 34-year-old Roseanne Boyland of Kennesaw, Georgia with a steel baton and then with a large wooden walking stick. According to witnesses, Boyland lost consciousness and stopped breathing after being crushed beneath the weight of other fallen protesters. Being unconscious, Boyland was no threat to the officer.

    Video still from bodycam footage showing Officer Lila Morris picking up a wooden stick that she uses to beat Rosanne Boyland. (Metropolitan Police Department/Graphic by The Epoch Times)

    A DC medical examiner claims Boyland died of an accidental overdose of Adderall, a suspicious ruling that sparked outrage from Boyland’s friends and family. Her father, Bret Boyland, said his daughter had been taking Adderall for about 10 years to treat an attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

    The Epoch Times reported on Feb. 10, an investigation by the department’s Internal Affairs Bureau cleared Morris of any wrongdoing and deemed her beating of the unconscious Boyland as “objectively reasonable.”

    A separate report describes how Morris first used the wooden stick while beating Boyland to strike 41-year-old filmmaker Luke Coffee on the left elbow. A second swing missed before she sprayed him in the face with pepper gel. “Morris then inexplicably turned her fury on the motionless Boyland, striking her in the ribs once and twice in the head,” the report said.

    Ashli Babbitt

    Ashli Babbitt, a 35-year-old unarmed Air Force veteran and ardent supporter of former President Donald Trump was shot and killed by U.S. Capitol Police Lt. Michael Byrd. While news media has labeled Babbitt as a violent “insurrectionist” who was trying to breach the Speaker’s Lobby, a frame-by-frame analysis of the video from The Epoch Times shows Babbitt tried to stop the violence against the Speaker’s Lobby at least four times before she was fatally shot.

    Moments before being shot to death, Ashli Babbitt confronts three police offers for not stopping the vandalism outside the U.S. House. (Video Still/Tayler Hansen)

    Two reports, filed by two officers who were with Byrd at the moment he shot Babbitt, were also obtained exclusively by The Epoch Times.

    According to a report by Paul McKenna of the United States Capitol Police (USCP) Uniformed Service Bureau, as protesters “began pounding” on the “East door of the lobby” and breaking the glass, he drew his weapon along with Byrd and Officer Reggie Tyson. He “yelled ‘stay back’ ‘get back’ several times during the incident.”

    “A woman climbed through the far left window pane, which had been broken out by the group,” McKenna attested. “Lt. Byrd fired one shot hitting the woman. She fell back out of the window and I continued yelling at the group to get back and away from the doors.”

    McKenna claims the incident happened between 1430 and 1500 hours (2:30 p.m. and 3:00 p.m.). The report was signed by McKenna on June 9, 2021. It was signed by his supervisor five months earlier, on Jan. 7, 2021.

    Use of Force report regarding the shooting of Ashli Babbitt by Lieutenant Byrd at the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021, signed7/9/21 by Paul McKenna and 01/09/21 by his supervisor. (United States Capitol Police Use of Force Report/The Epoch Times)

    In the second report, filed Jan. 7, 2021, Tyson said he heard “shots fired” over his radio some time after 1440 (2:40 p.m.). In an attempt to protect himself, Tyson said he withdrew his weapon and made his way to the lobby east side of the capitol along with Byrd and McKenna. “A protester tried to climb through the broken window where she was shot one time as she fell back.” Tyson claims the time of the incident was around 1500 hours (3:00 p.m.).

    In another report, USCP Officer Tyler Stoyle claims he responded to “a shots fired” call over their his radio at “1400 hours” (2:00 p.m.), 40 minutes earlier than Tyson claimed to have heard the call of “shots fired.”

    A separate report filed by USCP Officer Jason McGinnis, said he “responded to the North side of Crypt” at “approximately 1400 hours” and drew his baton to “hold the line of unscreened individuals that were trespassing.”

    However, it wasn’t until “after the initial surge had ended” and McGinnis “was moving trespassers out of the South Door” that he claimed “there were reports of shots fired in the Speaker’s Lobby Stairs to the second floor.”

    During an interview with NBC, Byrd also claimed to hear “shots fired.”

    However, Byrd was the only one to fire a weapon on Jan. 6, 2021. This, and the conflicts in times reported by police regarding when they heard “shots fired,” raises questions.

    Use of Force Report filed by Reggie Tyson of the United States Capitol Police regarding the shooting of Ashli Babbitt by Lieutenant Byrd in the United States Capitol Building on Jan. 6, 2021. (United States Capitol Police Use of Force Report)

    According to a July 25 report by The Epoch Times, Stan Kephart—a 42-year law enforcement veteran and former director of security for the 1984 Los Angeles Summer Olympics who has testified in court more than 350 times as an expert witness on policing issues—said Babbitt was “murdered … under the color of authority.”

    However, a review of the reports filed by Tyson and McKenna, the Bureau Commander found “the circumstances support the Use of Force” and did not recommend any further investigation.

    Ashli Babbitt (upper right) begins to fall back after being shot by Capitol Police Lt. Michael Byrd on Jan. 6, 2021. (Sam Montoya/Screenshot via The Epoch Times)

    Byrd also told NBC he yelled verbal warnings so hard that his throat hurt for days after. Neither of the reports filed by Tyson or McKenna corroborate his claim. Byrd cannot be heard shouting anything on the video either.

    Byrd insisted he opened fire on an unarmed Babbitt only as a “last resort.”

    “I know that day I saved countless lives,” Byrd said.

    In August 2021, the U.S. Capitol Police investigation cleared Byrd of any wrongdoing.

    Use of Force Reports

    According to a report released March 7 by the United States Government Accountability Office (GAO), “the January 6th attack on the Capitol raised concerns” about the preparedness of USCP “to respond to violent demonstrations.”

    Key findings from the report:

    • Eighty officers “identified concerns related to use of force, including that they felt discouraged or hesitant to use force because of a fear of disciplinary actions.”
    • Approximately 150 Capitol Police officers reported 293 use of force incidents on Jan. 6. All were deemed justified by the department.
    • These incidents involved pushing (91), batons (83), withdrawing a firearm from its holster (37), chemical spray (34), other physical tactics (22), pointing a firearm at a person (17), less-lethal munitions (7), a diversionary device (1) and firing a firearm (1).

    Of the 293 Use of Force (UOF) reports filed, The Epoch Times has obtained 161 of them, including the ones filed by Tyson and McKenna regarding the shooting of Babbitt by Byrd.

    ‘Less Than Lethal Munitions’ UOF Reports

    According to one UOF report, dated 1/7/21, Officer Adam Descamp said he was ordered by Deputy Chief Eric Waldow “to deploy less than lethal munitions on an overwhelming number of rioters at the U.S. Capitol.

    “I deployed multiple FN303 projectiles from the FN303 launcher, administered strikes with the PR-24 baton and utilized the Sabre red pepper spray to gain compliance from the rioters that were aggressively attacking officers on the police line and throughout the Capitol complex,” Descamp wrote of his actions at “approximately 1215 hours” (12:15 p.m.).

    Waldow was incident commander of the Civil Disturbance Unit on Jan. 6, which was reported to be highly disorganized and woefully unprepared.

    At “approximately 1215 hours,” Officer Melissa Lee also reported on 1/7/21 that she “was ordered to the scene by Deputy Chief Waldow to deploy less than lethal munitions on an overwhelming number of rioters at the U.S. Capitol Building,” using nearly the same, identical verbiage as Descamp.

    “I deployed multiple FN303 projectiles from the FN303 launcher to gain compliance from the rioters that were aggressively attacking officers on the police line and throughout the Capitol complex,” she wrote.

    A report filed by Officer Matthew Flood, also “at approximately 1215 hours,” also states he was ordered by Deputy Chief Waldow “to deploy less than lethal munitions on an overwhelming number of rioters at the U.S. Capitol.”

    “I deployed multiple projectiles from the FN303 launcher, and chemical agent spray,” he wrote, using language remarkably similar to that of Descamp and Lee, “to gain compliance from the rioters that were aggressively attacking officers on the police line and throughout the Capitol complex,” he wrote on his report, also date 1/7/21.

    “At approximately 1215 hours,” Officer Tina Cobert also reported on 1/7/21 that she “was ordered to deploy less than lethal munitions on an overwhelming number of rioters at the U.S. Capitol by Deputy Chief Waldow.

    “I deployed multiple projectiles from the FN 303 Launcher to gain compliance from the rioters that were aggressively attacking officers on the police line and throughout the Capitol complex,” she also wrote.

    Also “at approximately 1215 hours,” Officer Christopher Sprifke reported he “was ordered to deploy less than lethal munitions on an overwhelming number of rioters at the U.S. Capitol by Deputy Chief Waldow.

    “I deployed multiple PepperBall projectiles to gain compliance from the rioters that were aggressively attacking officers on the police line and throughout the Capitol building,” he wrote in his 1/7/21 report.

    “At approximately 1215 hours,” Officer Shauni Kerkhoff said she was also “ordered by Deputy Chief Waldow, Eric to deploy less than lethal munitions on an overwhelming number of rioters at the U.S. Capitol.

    “I deployed multiple projectiles from the PepperBall launcher to gain compliance from the rioters that were aggressively attacking officers on the police line and throughout the Capitol complex,” she wrote in his report, also dated 1/7/21.

    In February 2021, the U.S. Capitol police union issued an overwhelming no-confidence vote for a half-dozen of the force’s top leaders, including Waldow.

    Instead of leading his team of officers, Waldow chose to physically engage rioters, a move many of his fellow officers saw as wrong. In October 2021, Waldow submitted paperwork for his resignation.

    At “approximately 1400hrs,” Officer Patrick Kahl reported that he “discharged multiple 40mm baton rounds after individuals began and continued fighting with USP Officers while trying to gain unlawful access to the United States Capitol Building through the Rotunda Door.”

    At 1500 hours, Officer Justin Green reported launching a flash bang “to disperse the crowd” in an effort to “rescue” one of the department’s sergeants who was “pinned in the center of the crowd.” He fired a second flash bang as demonstrators were “breaching the Rotunda door.”

    Conflicting Reports

    These UOF reports contradict the report issued by then-Capitol Police Inspector General Michael Bolton, who said the CDU was ordered by supervisors not to use less than lethal munitions and that “heavier, less-lethal weapons,” including flash bangs, “were not used that day because of orders from leadership.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 21:40

  • LA's New $588 Million Bridge Keeps Closing As People Treat It Like A GTA Amusement Park
    LA’s New $588 Million Bridge Keeps Closing As People Treat It Like A GTA Amusement Park

    A brand new, half-billion-dollar bridge in Los Angeles that opened July 9 has already been plagued by frequent police closures, as people treat it like some kind of Grand Theft Auto amusement park.

    As Associated Press reports: 

    The 6th Street Viaduct — which soars over the concrete-lined Los Angeles River to connect downtown to the historic Eastside — quickly became a hotspot for street racing, graffiti and illegal takeovers that draw hundreds of spectators to watch drivers perform dangerous stunts in their vehicles.

    Taking over six years to build at a cost of $588 million, it was the largest bridge project in the city’s history. However, many drivers trying to use the bridge at night are finding they’re out of luck thanks to Angelenos going wild on the festively-lit structure with outstanding downtown views. 

    Multiple crashes have already happened, including an accident on July 18 in which the driver of Dodge Challenger lost control as he was doing a burnout and smashed into two other vehicles. He grabbed his things and fled the scene, but later turned himself in and was charged with misdemeanor hit-and-run. 

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    Then there’s this wannabe Hollywood stunt man…

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    Meanwhile, many pedestrians can’t resist the urge to climb the bridge’s many arches. Skateboarders are also trying their luck on them. Nobody’s fallen to their deaths…yet. 

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    Spontaneous concerts are breaking out too, but perhaps the craziest stunt was this haircut given smack in the middle of the median-less bridge as heavy traffic passed in both directions: 

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    The wild action has prompted police to shut down the 3,500-foot-long bridge several times already — including four shutdowns in just the past five days.

    Now, in a desperate effort to throw a wet blanket on the Angeleno hijinks, the city’s preparing to throw more money at the structure. ​​​Speed bumps are being installed and fencing will be added to help prevent people from climbing up the arches. 

    John Yi, who leads Los Angeles Walks, a pedestrian advocacy group, tells The Associated Press the design was a recipe for trouble: “If you provide a concrete jungle gym, then that’s how people will use it.”

    Naturally, the Los Angeles Times is calling for the city to simply surrender to the mobs. In an editorial posted Wednesday, it called for the city to start closing the bridge “several nights or days each week” — but then to close it to vehicles forever.

    With a straight face, the paper of record in a city notorious for its traffic wos urged the government to turn the half-billion-dollar bridge into “a place for community concerts, a farmers market or whatever residents want.”

    Seems like there’s already too many people in Los Angeles doing whatever they want. 

    At least this guy’s got the right idea…

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    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 21:20

  • Senator Asks CDC To Clear Up Conflicting Statements On Vaccine Safety Research
    Senator Asks CDC To Clear Up Conflicting Statements On Vaccine Safety Research

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A U.S. senator is asking the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to clear up conflicting statements on whether a specific method of COVID-19 vaccine safety research is being conducted.

    Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) speaks during a hearing in Washington on Jan. 24, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

    Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) asked CDC Director Rochelle Walensky for details after The Epoch Times reported that Dr. John Su, a CDC doctor, claimed that the CDC has been performing Proportional Reporting Ratio analyses on data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System since February 2021.

    That conflicted with the CDC telling the nonprofit Children’s Health Defense that it not only did not conduct the analyses but that the method “is outside of th[e] agency’s purview.”

    CDC’s assertion and Dr. Su’s statement cannot both be true,” Johnson told Walensky in a new letter, released on July 26 and dated July 25.

    The American people deserve the truth and you have not been providing it. That is why I, together with millions of Americans, have completely lost faith in the CDC and other federal health agencies. It is time to start regaining their confidence and your agency’s integrity by coming clean, being transparent, and telling the truth,” Johnson wrote.

    He asked for Walensky to immediately respond to a letter he sent before requesting information on the CDC’s vaccine safety research. He also requested she confirm whether Dr. Su’s statement is true and if it is, why the CDC claimed it had not conducted the analyses.

    And if Dr. Su’s statement is accurate, Johnson wants all of the Proportional Reporting Ratio analyses that the CDC has performed since February 2021.

    Finally, Johnson asked for Dr. Su to be made available for an interview with his office concerning the data examinations.

    The CDC and Walensky did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, speaks in Washington on June 16, 2022. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    Background

    The CDC said in an operating procedures document dated Jan. 29, 2021, that it “will perform” Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR), a type of data mining analysis that compares the counts of adverse event reports following vaccination with one vaccine to those that have been reported after receipt of another vaccine or vaccines.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 21:00

  • "We Have The Technology": LA Plans To Recycle Wastewater Into Taps
    “We Have The Technology”: LA Plans To Recycle Wastewater Into Taps

    Instead of addressing California’s crippling drought with network of desalination plants (a plan which actually had the support of Gov. Gavin Newsom until the state’s HOA – aka the Coastal Commission – shot it down earlier this year), the city of Los Angeles and other agencies across Southern California are considering a plan to recycle wastewater into tap water.

    An influent pumping station at the Water Replenishment District’s advanced water treatment facility in Pico Rivera. (Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times)

    Just don’t call it “toilet to tap” say proponents (or do, because that’s what it is), who claim it’s different from similar proposals in the late 1990s to use recycled water thanks to new technologies in water recycling.

    The city of Los Angeles and agencies across Southern California are looking into what’s known as “direct potable reuse,” which means putting purified recycled water directly back into our drinking water systems. This differs from indirect potable reuse, where water spends time in a substantial environmental barrier such as an underground aquifer or in a reservoir. –LA Times

    “There’s been a public health legacy where sanitary engineering practices and regulators considered sewage a waste, it was something to be avoided, something to be feared,” said Brad Coffey of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. “Now that we have the technology … the public, the regulators, the scientific community has much greater confidence in our ability to safely reuse that water supply.”

    The plan hinges on the State Water Resources Control Bord, which legislators have tasked with developing a set of uniform regulations by Dec. 31 which would govern potable reuse.

    Los Angeles, according to the report, “is wasting no time in readying projects that can launch once the regulations are passed.”

    A direct potable reuse demonstration facility near the Headworks reservoir just north of Griffith Park probably will be the state’s first approved direct potable reuse project, said Jesus Gonzalez, manager of water recycling policy at the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. It will take advantage of recycled water produced by a facility in Glendale, but the water will not be added to the drinking water system just yet. However, it will serve as proof of concept, he said. -LA Times

    “This is going to be the future of L.A.’s water, the future of the state’s water supply,” said Gonzalez, who added that the Headworks project could come online within the next five years.

    LA’s plans are much bigger than that, however – as the city has set out to recycle 100% of its wastewater by 2035 per a pledge made by Mayor Eric Garcetti several years ago.

    In order to achieve this, LA’s Hyperion Water Reclamation Plant – which currently only treats wastewater so it’s clean enough to release into Santa Monica Bay – must be completely converted into an advanced water purification facility which produces water that’s clean enough to consume.

    The Hyperion sewage treatment plant in Playa del Rey, on left, across from Dockweiler State Beach. (Christina House / Los Angeles Times)

    The water – enough for 2 million people – would then be piped to vast aquifers under the southern part of LA County and the San Fernando Valley. Dubbed ‘Operation Next,’ the massive undertaking will cost upward of $16 billion and would be completed in 2058 – more than two decades after Garcetti’s goal.

    The Hyperion plant suffered a catastrophic flood just one year ago, which led to 17 million gallons of untreated sewage to be dumped into the ocean, causing millions of gallons of drinking water to be diverted for uses typically served by treated wastewater. The plan is now back to normal operation.

    “That spill did reinforce everybody, including us, that we do need to have monitors and alarms upstream of the wastewater plant to be able to identify any problems, whether they’re spills, whether they’re infrastructure issues,” said Gonzalez.

    Baby steps…

    For now, a proof-of-concept for the Hyperion operation, a small-scale advanced purification facility is nearly complete. Constructed in partnership with LA International Airport, the plant will be able to crank out 1.5 million gallons per day of water for nonpotable uses, such as toilet flushing and cooling, according to LA Sanitation and Environment CEO Traci Minamide. It will come online in spring 2023.

    “The technology is that good,” said Shane Trussell, president and chief executive of Trussell Tech, which is involved in advanced water purification projects across Los Angeles, San Diego and other cities. “I expect by 2040 … most of the effluent in Southern California will be recycled or well on its way to being recycled.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 20:40

  • Video Used To Charge Jan. 6 Defendant Exonerates Him On Charge Of Assaulting Police: Attorney
    Video Used To Charge Jan. 6 Defendant Exonerates Him On Charge Of Assaulting Police: Attorney

    Authored by Joseph M. Hanneman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Maybe it was the death threat delivered by a fellow law-enforcement officer while he stood shackled in belly chains.

    January 6 detainee Ronald McAbee with his wife Sarah. McAbee is seeking release from jail in a new court motion. (Courtesy of Sarah McAbee)

    Perhaps it was being described as a “terrorist” by a federal judge who will preside over his trial.

    It could have been being released on bail by a U.S. magistrate judge in Tennessee, only to be ordered held until trial by a U.S. district judge in Washington D.C.

    Former sheriff’s deputy Ronald Colton McAbee, 28, of Tennessee, has faced a difficult road since being indicted for alleged criminal actions at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

    Arguably the most trying situation for McAbee was being denied bail for nearly a year based on video evidence that his attorney now says exonerates him.

    “What makes the government’s case weak is the fact that the videos actually exonerate Mr. McAbee of the very allegations made against him, and Mr. McAbee is motivated to appear for trial, take the stand and narrate those videos for [the] jury,” wrote attorney William Shipley in a May 2022 motion to have his client released from jail.

    McAbee, a former sheriff’s deputy in Tennessee and Georgia with more than seven years of law-enforcement experience as a deputy and correctional officer, was charged by federal prosecutors with seven alleged crimes.

    Charges included assaulting, resisting, or impeding a federal officer, two counts of civil disorder, entering and remaining in a restricted building or grounds with a deadly or dangerous weapon, disorderly and disruptive conduct in a restricted building or grounds with a deadly or dangerous weapon, engaging in physical violence in a restricted building or grounds with a deadly or dangerous weapon, and committing an act of physical violence in the Capitol grounds or buildings.

    McAbee was outside the Lower West Terrace tunnel during some of the worst violence on January 6. Several times he tried to render lifesaving aid to a dying Rosanne Boyland, 34, of Kennesaw, Georgia. His interactions with Metropolitan Police Department officers resulted in most of the charges and served as justification for a D.C. judge to jail him until trial.

    Ronald McAbee renders aid to a pulseless Rosanne Boyland outside the Lower West Terrace tunnel at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. “He just was in life-saving mode,” Sarah McAbee said of her husband. (Graphic by The Epoch Times)

    McAbee was arrested on Aug. 17, 2021, in Tennessee. At a detention hearing on Aug. 26, prosecutors argued that McAbee assaulted Metropolitan Police Department Officer Andrew Wyatt. They said after Wyatt fell at the tunnel entrance, McAbee—who had a broken shoulder from a car accident nine days earlier—pulled him down the concrete stairs into a hostile crowd.

    The prosecutor played a video for the court, but there was no sound, according to Sarah McAbee, Ronald McAbee’s wife. The lack of audio would later prove to be a crucial element of the story.

    After the detention hearing was continued on Sept. 8, 2021, Magistrate Judge Jeffery Frensley ruled against the U.S. Department of Justice and ordered McAbee released pending trial.

    No Danger to Community

    “I do not believe that Mr. McAbee poses a future danger to the community if he were to be released between now and the time that he resolves this case,” Judge Frensley said. “And the government, despite my request that they provide me any evidence that he’s presented any sort of a danger to the community, have been able to point to absolutely nothing beyond the events around and during January the 6th.”

    Judge Frensley said what he saw on the video was open to interpretation. McAbee’s guilt or innocence could not be part of the consideration for bond, he said.

    “We have a system that presumes innocence, and for me to make a decision where I become judge, jury, and executioner all in the same role without affording him the rights he’s entitled to under the constitution is inappropriate,” Frensley said. “And that’s the important distinction between the bond decision and the decision on guilt that will follow at a trial.”

    That victory for McAbee was short-lived. Prosecutors filed an emergency appeal the same day in U.S. District Court in Washington D.C. Senior District Judge Emmet Sullivan stayed Frensley’s order and scheduled hearings on the government’s motion to keep McAbee behind bars until trial.

    During a hearing on Sept. 22, 2021, Sullivan seemed to telegraph his eventual decision to hold McAbee without bond.

    When being shown a video with McAbee wearing body armor with a patch that read “Sheriff,” Judge Sullivan said, “That’s pretty outrageous,” according to the official hearing transcript. A short time later, Sullivan said, “These videos are very disturbing.” He made several statements agreeing with the prosecutor’s assessment of the evidence.

    Sullivan then suggested McAbee is a terrorist.

    So it appears clearly to this court that the defendant is pulling the officer back into the crowd of other terrorists,” Sullivan said, according to the transcript.

    After another hearing on Oct. 13, 2021, Sullivan reversed Frensely’s order and ruled that McAbee should not be released pending trial. Sullivan said he would issue a written ruling, which was released more than two months later on Dec. 21, 2021.

    While Frensley told prosecutors they did not show evidence that McAbee had done anything to prove he was a danger during the eight months between January 6 and his August arrest, Sullivan ruled that the only way to protect the community is to keep McAbee in jail.

    The court concludes that clear and convincing evidence supports a finding that no condition or combination of conditions will reasonably assure the safety of the community,” Judge Sullivan wrote (pdf) in his 41-page ruling.

    Sarah McAbee was stunned.

    Ronald McAbee falls on top of Metropolitan Police Department Officer Andrew Wyatt after being pulled from behind on January 6, 2021. (Christopher Chern via Storyful/Graphic by The Epoch Times)

    “It’s just the craziest situation, them saying he’s a danger to the community when he’s been a law enforcement officer and never has had stripes on his record, let alone a speeding ticket,” Sarah McAbee told The Epoch Times.

    A break in McAbee’s case came when video investigator Gary McBride of Decatur, Texas, studied the bodycam footage shown in court, except with the audio track turned on. It painted a vastly different picture of what took place, McBride told The Epoch Times.

    “The prosecutors did not play the audio of AW [Andrew Wyatt] and McAbee talking during this point,” McBride said in a video he made about the evidence. “McAbee is trying to save AW. Prosecutors didn’t play that in court.”

    McBride said his analysis showed McAbee did not pull the officer down the stairs, but was swept backward and lost his balance, due to two protesters pulling on the officer’s legs. McAbee was standing over Wyatt at the time. As a result, McAbee fell on top of Wyatt and was over him for about 25 seconds.

    While McAbee was on top of Wyatt, bystanders called him a traitor, ostensibly for helping the officer. When someone in the crowd tried to grab at Wyatt, McAbee shouted, “No!” and “Quit!”

    “At that point, my husband just saw an officer down and an officer needing help, because the first thing he says, when he pops in around the tunnel before he gets around the rail is, ‘Hey, you guys have a man down,’” Sarah McAbee said. “They literally did nothing to help that guy. So he’s the one who jumped into action.”

    Sarah said she was relieved when she learned the audio track from the evidence videos backs up what her husband told her that day.

    Story is Consistent

    “My husband’s story has not changed from January 6. There’s actually a picture of him that they have on the FBI website of him on the phone,” she said. “I know that’s a phone call with me about everything that just went down.

    “His story has not changed from that day to today. He’s just not a liar. That’s just not who he is and even the little details have always remained the same.”

    McBride and Sarah McAbee said the audio track should have been disclosed to the defense as exculpatory evidence.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 20:20

  • One Abandoned NYC Block Is "Frozen" In Peak-Pandemic Time
    One Abandoned NYC Block Is “Frozen” In Peak-Pandemic Time

    Life in most places is making an attempt to move forward from the pandemic lockdowns. But for one city block in New York, that isn’t the case.

    Outside of the 59th Street subway stop, across Lexington Avenue, Bloomberg writes you can still find an entire block “frozen” in peak-pandemic time. 

    The area, which used to be prime New York real estate, was formerly the home of Banana Republic, the Gap and Victoria’s Secret. Now, all people see are signs trying to find tenants for the empty buildings. 

    Steve Soutendijk, an executive managing director at Cushman & Wakefield, told Bloomberg: “It’s probably the slowest market to return to pre-Covid levels out of any in New York City. It’s a little bit of a mystery.”

    This block is a microcosm of how slow the city has been to recover, post-lockdowns, the report says. It was also suffering heading into Covid, with ridership exiting at 59th Street “declining for years” and businesses starting to select other parts of the city in favor of occupying the block. 

    Now, ridership at the “Bloomingdale’s Area”, as brokers call it, and the 59th Street stop is down 50% since 2014. The department store used to be the big draw in the neighborhood, which would then act as a feeder for smaller retail shops in the area.

    But as online shopping has gained in prominence and since the pandemic severed off a large portion of the local businesses, the department store is “no longer the anchor it once was”, the report says. 

    Michael Hirschfeld, a vice chairman at real estate firm Jones Lang LaSalle, said: “It’s a model of shopping that’s not entirely in favor at the moment.”

    Help from tourists has also waned, with international visitors only expected to reach 60% of pre-Covid levels this year, the report says. 

    But walking traffic is on the rise, the report says. More people are walking down that block than they did when the retail space was occupies in 2019, the report says, citing cell phone tracking data. Foot traffic in the area is outpacing other surrounding areas.

    Maybe that’s why Soutendijk can’t help but shed a little optimism. He concluded: “I don’t think these spaces are staying vacant forever.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 20:00

  • China Claims First Offshore Shale Oil And Gas Discovery
    China Claims First Offshore Shale Oil And Gas Discovery

    By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

    In a first for Chinese offshore shale, state-run oil giant CNOOC has announced what it claims to be a commercial discovery in the Beibu Gulf in the South China Sea with the tapping of oil and gas flows at a wildcat well. 

    The discovery, at the Weiye 1 wildcat well, the first shale well China has ever drilled offshore, could be a game-changer for the country’s dependence on oil and gas imports, according to Chinese media

    CNOOC estimates that the Beibu gulf holds some 8.76 billion barrels of shale oil in place, and Thursday’s announcement claimed that the wildcat well flowed 20 cubic meters/day of shale oil and 1,589 cubic meters/day of natural gas, which the Chinese oil giant is referring to as a commercial discovery. 

    Speaking to the Global Times about the discovery, Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, questioned the next steps, including what he referred to as the “technical difficulty of shale oil extraction” and the high costs of production. 

    While China is thought to have more than 30 trillion cubic meters of recoverable shale gas, it has struggled with development–all of which has been onshore to date. 

    According to Wood Mackenzie, unconventional oil production accounts for less than 1% of China’s total crude oil output due to “high breakevens and non-commercial economics”, but the country’s NOCs are spending top dollar to develop new technologies to ensure feasibility. 

    That technological development so far is being heralded by CNOOC as the impetus behind the country’s first-ever offshore shale discovery. 

    In a note originally published by Thepaper.cn and translated by the Global Times, the head of CNOOC’s exploration department said the success of the first offshore shale oil drilling marked the realization of the independent exploration and development of China’s offshore shale oil and gas resources with self-developed technology.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 19:40

  • Judgment Day? Chess Robot Crushes Child Player's Finger During Tournament
    Judgment Day? Chess Robot Crushes Child Player’s Finger During Tournament

    The real question that needs to be asked is “who was winning?”  An AI driven chess playing robot went berserk last Thursday and crushed a 7-year-old boy’s finger during a match at the Moscow Chess Open in Russia.  The robot apparently grabbed hold of the boy’s finger in the middle of moving one of his own pieces and continued to squeeze until the finger broke.  It took four adults to pry the machine away from the child.

    Officials at the Moscow Open claim the boy “violated safety rules” when playing the machine, but they offered no further explanation as to why the robot interrupted the child moving his own piece, or why it was built with the strength to crush human fingers.  Does it really need that kind of compression force to pick up chess pieces? 

    The robot was brought in for an exhibition and the Moscow Chess Open says they have nothing to do with its programming or operation.  

    The conundrum here should be obvious – Either the robot was programmed to disrupt human players and grab their pieces or their fingers for crushing, or, it was NOT programmed to do that but did it anyway.  Both options are equally disconcerting.

    While this story by itself is not all that frightening, it does raise further questions about the growing prevalence of Artificial Intelligence algorithms and our reliance on robotics in everyday life.  AI is even being tested as a tool for predicting “pre-crime.”  One core concern of course is that machines have no conscience and never will.  Actions might be decided in terms of “logic,” but the most logical decision might also be the most immoral decision.  Furthermore, when an AI machine does something that harms a person, who is held accountable?  Do we blame the programmers, or a machine which is supposedly autonomous?

    Did the chess playing machine in Moscow simply malfunction?  Probably.  The officials at the event blame the child (of course they do), but the young boy who was injured is among some of the top players in Russia. What if the machine was losing and came to the “logical” conclusion that winning required other measures outside of the game?

    Some scary food for thought. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 19:20

  • Trump Warns Something Worse Than Recession Is Coming
    Trump Warns Something Worse Than Recession Is Coming

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Former President Donald Trump has warned that America’s economy is on track for a bigger disaster than a recession, with his remarks coming shortly before government statistics showed GDP printing negative for the second consecutive quarter, which is a rule-of-thumb definition for a recession.

    Where we’re going now could be a very bad place,” Trump said at a rally in Arizona last week.

    We got to get this act in order, we have to get this country going, or we’re going to have a serious problem.”

    Former President Donald Trump attends a rally in support of Arizona GOP candidates, in Prescott Valley, Ariz., on July 22, 2022. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

    The former president singled out the collapse in Americans’ real wages, a historically depressed labor force participation rate, and the Democrat push for the Green New Deal that he said would crush economic growth.

    Not recession. Recession’s a nice word. We’re going to have a much bigger problem than recession. We’ll have a depression,” the former president said.

    Trump’s remarks came several days before the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released data showing that real U.S. GDP fell by an annualized 0.9 percent in the second quarter after contracting 1.6 percent in the first quarter.

    Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are a common rule-of-thumb definition for a recession, although recessions in the United States are officially declared by a committee of economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) using a broader definition than the two-quarter rule.

    Vance Ginn, Chief Economist at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, told The Epoch Times’ sister media NTD in an interview that, while officially it’s NBER that calls recessions, the two-quarter rule is “usually how it’s done by a rule of thumb.”

    “I think this is definitely recession that we’re in now from these bad policies,” Ginn added, blaming a series of “progressive policies” coming out of the White House and the Democrat-controlled House.

    Former President Donald Trump gestures at a rally in Prescott Valley, Ariz., on July 22, 2022. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

    Stagflationary Winds Blowing

    In his remarks, Trump also took aim at President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy, blaming him for soaring inflation.

    Biden created the worst inflation in 47 years. We’re at 9.1 percent, but the actual number is much, much higher than that,” Trump said.

    While the former president didn’t provide his own estimate for the true rate of inflation, an alternative CPI inflation gauge developed by economist John Williams, calculated according to the same methodology used by the U.S. government in the 1980s, puts the figure at 17.3 percent, a 75-year high.

    Trump also said that persistently high inflation combined with an economic slowdown has put the country “on the verge of a devastating” spell of stagflation, which is a combination of accelerating prices and slowing economic growth.

    Inflation is “going higher and higher all the time,” Trump said, adding that it’s “costing families nearly $6,000 a year, bigger than any tax increase ever proposed other than the tax increase that they want to propose right now.”

    In Trump’s first full month in office in February 2017, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation gauge came in at 2.8 percent in annual terms. While the CPI measure fluctuated during his tenure, the highest it ever reached was 2.9 percent in July 2018, while in his final month in office, January 2021, inflation clocked in at 1.4 percent.

    Under Biden, inflation has climbed steadily, soaring 9.1 percent year-over-year in June 2022, a figure not seen in more than 40 years.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 19:00

  • Third Body Found At Lake Mead As Water Levels Drop
    Third Body Found At Lake Mead As Water Levels Drop

    As the water level of the nation’s largest artificial reservoir recedes due to a devastating drought, human bodies keep emerging. 

    Human remains have been discovered in Lake Mead for the third time in three months. The U.S. National Park Service reported the grim discovery. They said, “human remains were discovered at Swim Beach in Lake Mead National Recreation Area at approximately 4:30 p.m. PST on Monday.” 

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    The Clark County Office of the Coroner/Medical Examiner retrieved the body that night. The cause of death remains a mystery. 

    “The investigation is ongoing. No further information is available at this time,” National Park Service said. 

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    The first body, discovered on May 1, was stuffed in a barrel, likely a murder victim who died “sometime in the mid-’70s to early ’80s, based on clothing and footwear the victim was found with,” according to a press release from the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police. Paddleboards discovered the second body on May 7. 

    Besides bodies, receding waters revealed sunken boats and trash scattered across the lake’s dried-out parts. 

     

    As of Wednesday, Lake Mead’s water level was at 1,040 feet, approximately 174 feet below its level in 2000 when the great drought began. 

    “Continuing a 22-year downward trend, water levels in Lake Mead stand at their lowest since April 1937, when the reservoir was still being filled for the first time,” NASA wrote in a report last week. The U.S. space agency also released satellite images of the lake’s water level falling over time. 

    “We will likely find additional bodies that have been dumped in Lake Mead” as the water level continues to drop, Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Homicide Lt. Ray Spencer said in May. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 18:40

  • Twitter Censors All Content From The Epoch Times
    Twitter Censors All Content From The Epoch Times

    Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times,

    Twitter has imposed a blockade on all content from The Epoch Times without explanation, raising further concerns about freedom of speech on the platform.

    The Twitter logo is seen on a sign at the company’s headquarters in San Francisco, California on Nov. 4, 2016. (Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)

    Beginning on the evening of July 28, the platform put up a warning on all links from The Epoch Times. A click on a link would direct users to a page titled “Warning: this link may be unsafe” which prompts users to return to the previous page.

    “The link you are trying to access has been identified by Twitter or our partners as being potentially spammy or unsafe,” read the warning, which cited the platform’s URL policy.

    The notice said that the link could fall into any of four categories: “malicious links that could steal personal information or harm electronic devices”; “spammy links that mislead people or disrupt their experience”; “violent or misleading content that could lead to real-world harm,” or content that “if posted directly on Twitter, are a violation of the Twitter Rules.”

    The platform has not responded to multiple requests from The Epoch Times for clarification.

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    The Epoch Times was founded in 2000 by Chinese Americans who fled communist China and sought to create an independent media outlet to bring uncensored and truthful information to the world.

    At least 10 staff members for The Epoch Times were arrested that year in China, with one editor-in-chief spending a decade in prison.

    While operating outside of China, the media outlet has remained a consistent target of attacks from the Chinese regime over the past two decades. The printing press of the Hong Kong edition of The Epoch Times has suffered a series of violent break-ins, including arson, over the years, viewed as attempts by Beijing to intimidate the publication.

    Major Chinese state media, by contrast, remain accessible on the platform as of the press time.

    Among the first to be affected by Twitter’s blockade was Eliza Bleu, a trafficking survivor. Bleu shared about how abusers groomed her by preying on her vulnerabilities on EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders” program in an interview that premiered at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday.

    Bleu tried to repost the link after watching the interview, and to her surprise and dismay, found that she “couldn’t even click on the link.”

    I’m pretty disheartened that the interview link was labeled as unsafe, because it’s not unsafe,” she told The Epoch Times.

    “By watching the interview, anyone can tell it’s pretty educational,” she said.

    “I wasn’t talking about anything that wasn’t factual. I was just really just trying to educate, raise awareness, and bring attention to the issue.” She added that the link seemed to be accessible when the interview first aired but became blocked sometime afterward.

    Twitter’s warning page allows users to proceed to the actual Epoch Times link if they click on the word “continue” at the very bottom of the page.

    Republican lawmakers have decried the move as an act of censorship.

    Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) on Thursday called out Twitter for blocking all links to The Epoch Times’ website.

    “.@Twitter is blocking all links to @EpochTimes, including a story about a human trafficking survivor, and labeling them as ‘spammy’ and ‘unsafe,’ Twitter must explain itself for this outrageous act of censorship,” he wrote in a tweet.

    Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) described Twitter’s action as “alarming.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 18:20

  • Confiscation Next: China May Seize Undeveloped Land From Distressed Real Estate Companies
    Confiscation Next: China May Seize Undeveloped Land From Distressed Real Estate Companies

    With Chinese markets disappointed by the lack of a stimulus announcement during yesterday’s July Xi-chaired Politburo meeting, which sparked a broad selloff in tech and property shares and sent the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of stocks 2.8% lower on Friday, taking its July loss to over 10%…

    … Beijing, finding itself increasingly trapped by the continued deterioration in the country’s massive housing sector especially in the aftermath of the recent mortgage revolt, is reportedly considering confiscation (i.e., nationalization) next: according to Bloomberg, China is considering a plan to seize undeveloped land from distressed real estate companies, using it to help finance the completion of stalled housing projects that have sparked mortgage boycotts across the country.

    The proposal would take advantage of Chinese laws allowing local governments to wrest back control of land sold to real estate companies if it remains undeveloped after two years, without compensation. That would give authorities more leeway to direct funds toward uncompleted homes, potentially to the detriment of creditors who would lose claims on some of developers’ most valuable assets.

    According to Bloomberg sources, in a typical scenario the government would seize land from a distressed developer and give it to a healthier rival, which would in turn provide funding to complete the distressed developer’s stalled projects. The government could also rezone the seized land in some cases to increase its value, the people added, asking not to be named discussing private information.

    The proposal is one of several measures under consideration as Xi Jinping’s government tries to prevent turmoil in the housing market from fueling social unrest and derailing the broader economy. Last week, we learned of a dedicated bailout fund meant to stabilize the housing system. The focus on completing projects is the latest sign that policy makers are prioritizing homeowners over bondholders, who have been burned by a record number of defaults by real estate giants including China Evergrande Group.

    It is still unclear if the confiscation proposal will get a green light from Chinese leaders; it is currently under discussion by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development with other regulators.

    While in 2021 Beijing appeared to take the sharp deterioration across the property sector almost whimsically, perhaps Chinese leaders finally realized what’s at stake here: the numbers are truly staggering.

    According to Bloomberg, outstanding individual mortgage loans hit 38.86 trillion yuan as of the end of June, growing at a rate of 5.1% annually. Meanwhile, total outstanding property development loans at June were 12.49 trillion yuan while the total outstanding loans to the property sector were 53.1 trilion yuan. In other words, not even China’s state-owned banking system would be immune to contagion that spreads to broader mortgage sector.

    It’s not just traditional mortgages that are at risk: China’s top 100 developers owned land parcels valued at 42.5 trillion yuan ($6.3 trillion) at the end of last year, according to China Real Estate Information Corp. Many of them borrowed heavily to buy the land, in hopes that prices would continue rising. That bet is now souring after a multi-year government clampdown on real estate leverage that has weighed on home prices, land values and new residential property sales.

    The result is that many distressed builders are sitting on land they’ve been unable or unwilling to develop. Just 37% of land parcels auctioned in the first batch of centralized land-bidding last year have started work as of March-end, according to a recent Caixin report. About 16% of the second batch were being developed, the newspaper said.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 18:00

  • State Of Emergency In San Francisco Declared Over Monkeypox Spread
    State Of Emergency In San Francisco Declared Over Monkeypox Spread

    Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times,

    A state of emergency has been announced in San Francisco on July 28 over the spread of monkeypox, a viral disease that has spread to more than 70 countries since the start of 2022.

    “San Francisco is declaring a Local Public Health Emergency for monkeypox,” London Breed, the mayor of the city, announced.

    “This declaration will go into effect starting Aug. 1 and will allow us to prepare and dedicate resources to prevent the spread.”

    The declaration is a legal document that allows authorities to mobilize city resources, streamline staffing, and coordinate agencies across the city, as well as speed up emergency planning and allow for future reimbursement by the state and federal governments, she said in a statement.

    The move also raises awareness in San Francisco about how to stop the spread of monkeypox, Breed added.

    The city has at least 281 cases out of about 800 in California and about 4,907 across the United States as of late July 28—including probable cases—according to data from San Francisco’s health department and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

    San Francisco Mayor London Breed speaks during a news conference outside of Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital in San Francisco, Calif., on March 17, 2021. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

    Cases of monkeypox have increased in California since late June—the end of Pride Month.

    “San Francisco is an epicenter for the country. Thirty percent of all cases in California are in San Francisco,” said San Francisco Public Health Officer Dr. Susan Philip.

    San Francisco shut down its primary monkeypox vaccination clinic earlier this week after it ran out of doses, saying it had only received 7,800 doses of a requested 35,000.

    “That is not nearly enough, and the reality is we are going to need far more than 35,000 vaccines to protect our LGBTQ community and to slow the spread of this virus,” Breed said.

    A study published in the Journal of New England Medicine on July 21—the first major peer-reviewed study of monkeypox infections—indicated that a vast majority of people with monkeypox were gay or bisexual men, and a vast majority of the infections were suspected to have occurred through sexual activity in 95 percent of those infected. Researchers had observed monkeypox infection across 16 countries between April and June, when cases began to be reported in countries outside of Africa.

    “San Francisco was at the forefront of the public health responses to HIV and COVID-19, and we will be at the forefront when it comes to monkeypox,” said state Sen. Scott Wiener, a Democrat who represents San Francisco.

    “We can’t and won’t leave the LGTBQ community out to dry.”

    Mature, oval-shaped monkeypox virions (L), and spherical immature virions (R), obtained from a sample of human skin associated with the 2003 prairie dog outbreak. (Cynthia S. Goldsmith, Russell Regner/CDC via AP)

    The San Francisco mayor clarified that officials “are not implementing behavior restrictions or other measures like we did under COVID.”

    “This is all about having the resources and ability to move quickly to deploy these resources,” Breed said.

    She said the emergency declaration “must be adopted by the Board of Supervisors within a week,” adding on July 28 that the board “has agreed to convene an emergency meeting next week to consider this emergency.”

    WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on July 23 declared the monkeypox outbreak a global health emergency, citing the global growth in cases—even though a special advisory committee did not reach a consensus on whether to declare the global health emergency.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 17:40

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Today’s News 29th July 2022

  • Johnstone: The Phoniest, Most PR-Intensive War Of All Time
    Johnstone: The Phoniest, Most PR-Intensive War Of All Time

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    The president and first lady of Ukraine have posed for a romantic photoshoot with Vogue magazine, wherein President Volodymyr Zelensky waxes poetical about his love for his darling wife.

    Now, I know what you’re thinking: how is Zelensky making time for a Vogue photoshoot amidst his busy schedule of PR appearances for other major western institutions?

    I mean this is after all the same Volodymyr Zelensky who has been so busy making video appearances for the Grammy Awards, the Cannes Film Festival, the World Economic Forum and probably the Bilderberg group as well, and having meetings with celebrities like Ben StillerSean Penn, and Bono and the Edge from U2. It’s as busy a PR tour as he could possibly have without having a discussion about the strategic importance of long-range artillery with Elmo on Sesame Street.

    Oh yeah, and also isn’t there like a war or something happening in Ukraine? You’d think he’d probably be somewhat busy with that too.

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    Call me crazy, but I’m beginning to suspect that there might be a concerted effort to manipulate the way we think about the war in Ukraine. In fact, I’d even go so far as to say it’s the most aggressively perception-managed war we’ve ever experienced.

    Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February we have not only been smashed with mass media propaganda unlike anything we’ve ever seen while Russian media are purged from the airwaves, we’re also seeing the new media element of unprecedented amounts of online censorship, algorithm-boosted propaganda, and social media trolling.

    So we’ve literally never seen this much overall effort put into manipulating the way the public thinks about a war. Which makes sense, given that it’s a profoundly dangerous proxy war which stands to benefit ordinary people in no way, shape or form.

    I mean, can you imagine if people were allowed to just think their own thoughts about their government’s economic warfare against Russia which is hurting them financially and pushing millions toward starvation with the full awareness and approval of the US government? Or if Americans were allowed to wonder if the billions they are pouring into this proxy conflict could be better spent at home? Or if people started objecting to a needless conflict for geostrategic domination threatening their lives and the lives of everyone they know with the risk of nuclear annihilation?

    Can’t have that.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    There is a night-and-day difference between wanting to tell people the truth about something and wanting to manipulate their perception of something. There are times when true facts can be used to influence people’s perception one way or the other, but if your agenda is to manipulate perception rather than tell the truth you will necessarily be forced to rely on lies, half-truths, distortion, and lies by omission wherever the truth doesn’t serve that agenda.

    If they were telling us the truth about this war, they wouldn’t be censoring Russian media. They wouldn’t be censoring online voices who disagree with the official narratives about Ukraine. They wouldn’t be continually blasting us in the face with mass media perception management, and they sure as hell wouldn’t be putting Ukraine’s celebrity-in-chief on the cover of Vogue magazine.

    We are being manipulated, and we are being deceived. And we are being manipulated and deceived because our perceiving clearly on our own would go against the interests of the empire. They are lying to us because the interests of the people and the interests of the empire are, as usual, squarely at odds.

    *  *  *

    My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, following me on FacebookTwitterSoundcloud or YouTube, or throwing some money into my tip jar on Ko-fiPatreon or Paypal. If you want to read more you can buy my books. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. All works co-authored with my American husband Tim Foley.

    Bitcoin donations:1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/29/2022 – 02:00

  • Has The Lab Leak Theory Really Been Disproved?
    Has The Lab Leak Theory Really Been Disproved?

    Authored by Matt Ridley via The Spectator (emphasis ours),

    The BBC carried a story this week with the headline ‘Covid origin studies say evidence points to Wuhan market’. Bizarrely the paper in Science they are referring to, by Michael Worobey and colleagues, says no such thing. It says: ‘the observation that the preponderance of early cases were linked to the Huanan market does not establish that the pandemic originated there’.

    All three of the scientists quoted in the BBC story have been highly dismissive about even discussing the possibility that the pandemic began as an accident in a Wuhan laboratory. Their vested interest is clear: they worry that the reputation of their field of virology would be threatened by such a discussion. But the many scientists who say such a debate is needed are largely ignored by the BBC: none are quoted in this week’s article.

    The Beeb’s story says that ‘this evidence paints a picture that Sars-CoV-2 was present in live mammals that were sold at Huanan market in late 2019’. This too is wrong. Nobody has found any evidence of Sars-CoV-2 in live mammals at the market. They have found some evidence – they cite only a YouTube video – that mammals were on sale in the market, which we already knew, but not that the mammals were infected. That would be the very minimum requirement for asserting that the pandemic began in the market. In 2003 scientists refused to assert that Sars began in markets till they found infected animals.

    The new paper shows that lots of early cases had visited the Huanan seafood market or lived near it, which we already knew. But for the first two weeks of January 2020, the Chinese authorities were defining pneumonia cases as (what we now call) Covid only if they had visited or lived near the market: so it is a circular argument. The scientists dismiss this ‘ascertainment bias’ problem by citing one of their own papers, which simply asserted that this problem could be ignored. As Dr Alina Chan of MIT and Harvard puts it: ‘Worobey et al. are claiming that there is no ascertainment bias because their lead author said so.’

    The new Science paper has an ignominious history. It began life as a ‘preprint’ whose data and logic were torn apart within days by independent researchers. Even the Chinese Academy of Sciences panned it for ‘obfuscating the epidemic outbreak place…and the origin’ and for ‘overstating conclusions based on limited data and unrealistic simulations’. Senior Chinese scientists published a preprint the same week reiterating their conclusion that the market was a place where the early outbreak was amplified, not where it began. It’s quite something when western scientists go further than those supervised by the Chinese Communist party in trying to exonerate a possible lab leak. Yet its conclusions were reported by the Times as having ‘found patient zero’ and the New York Times as saying ‘the virus was present in animals’ at the market – both entirely false claims.

    As published, the paper is now a damp squib. Gone is all the certainty of the preprint. Where the preprint claimed ‘dispositive evidence for the emergence of Sars-CoV-2’, the paper now cites ‘insufficient evidence to define upstream events’. Where the preprint said the market was the ‘unambiguous epicentre’ of the pandemic, the published paper now admits that ‘exact circumstances remain obscure’.

    There is one very misleading sentence: ‘This region of Hubei contains extensive cave complexes housing Rhinolophus bats, which carry SARS-CoVs’. The bat colonies near Wuhan have been extensively sampled, very few SARS-like viruses were found, and none at all like SARS-CoV-2. Most serious scientists agree that this virus probably came from bats on the borders of Yunnan and Laos. The question is and always has been: how did the virus get to Wuhan from bats living more than a thousand miles to the south-west, a distance as great as London to Rome?

    One possibility is the wildlife trade, but far less wildlife is sold in Wuhan than in Guangdong in southern China, and yet the virus appeared only in Wuhan: where are the other outbreaks among wildlife traders. The other possibility is that it was scientists who brought it to Wuhan. Why do we think this still needs discussing? Here are six good reasons.

    1. Wuhan is the site of the most intensive programme of research on SARS-like viruses in the world

    2. That programme involved bringing hundreds of SARS-like viruses to Wuhan

    3. Most of them were brought by scientists from Yunnan and some from Laos

    4. Among those viruses was one that was 96.2 per cent the same as SARS-CoV-2

    5. They refuse to open up their database showing what other viruses they brought and they published the results of experiments in which they manipulated the genomes of these viruses in ways that sometimes made them much more infectious

    6. They published plans to insert into a SARS-like virus the very kind of genomic sequence that SARS-CoV-2 has and no other SARS-like virus has.

    None of this is a smoking gun, but it’s a heck of a coincidence.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 23:50

  • Earth Overshoot Day Is Coming Sooner And Sooner
    Earth Overshoot Day Is Coming Sooner And Sooner

    Today (July 28) marks this year’s Earth Overshoot Day, the day that humanity’s demand for ecological resources exceeds the resources Earth can regenerate within that year.

    As Statista’s Felix Richter details below, over the decades, the ecological and carbon footprint of humans has gradually increased, all while Earth’s biocapacity, i.e. its ability to regenerate resources has diminished significantly.

    That has led to Earth Overshoot Day arriving earlier and earlier, moving from December 30 in 1970 to July 28 this year.

    Infographic: Earth Overshoot Day Is Coming Sooner and Sooner | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Only in the pandemic year of 2020 did it move back to August 22, before moving forward to 2019’s date – July 29 – again in 2021.

    “There is no benefit in waiting to take action,” Global Footprint Network CEO Laurel Hanscom said in a statement in 2021.

    “The pandemic has demonstrated that societies can shift rapidly in the face of disaster. But being caught unprepared brought great economic and human cost. When it comes to our predictable future of climate change and resource constraints, individuals, institutions and governments who prepare themselves will fare better. Global consensus is not a prerequisite to recognizing one’s own risk exposure, so let’s take decisive action now, wherever we are,” she added.

    The concept of Earth Overshoot Day was first conceived by Andrew Simms of the UK think tank New Economics Foundation, which partnered with Global Footprint Network in 2006 to launch the first global Earth Overshoot Day campaign. WWF, the world’s largest conservation organization, has participated in Earth Overshoot Day since 2007. To find out more about the calculations behind Earth Overshoot Day, please click here.

    So whos’ worst of all?

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, if the citizens of the world lived like those of the United States, the resources of more than five full planets would be needed to satisfy the global need for resources every year.

    Infographic: The World is Not Enough | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Industrialized nations have the biggest share in pushing the date forward. Qatar, Luxembourg and Bahrain are actually even bigger offenders than the U.S. The lifestyle in these countries would use up between 5.2 and 9.0 Earths if the whole world lived it, but because of the small size of their populations, they actually have less of an influence on global resource depletion than bigger developed countries like the U.S.

    Other major industrialized nations in Europe and Asia would use between 2.6 and four Earths if their lifestyle was universal. Chinese living standards meant 2.4 Earths would be used up.

    Indonesians, with a local Earth Overshoot Day on Dec 3, 2022, were about on track of using up exactly the resources allotted to Earth citizens.

    People in several countries also used up less than their allotment of resources, for example in India, where the equivalent of 0.8 Earths were used annually.

    Emissions, but also the use of resources like wood, fish and land for crops are among the things counted in when calculating Earth Overshoot Day.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 23:30

  • Global Air Travel Logjam Stumps Airlines, Disrupts Countless Summer Travel Plans
    Global Air Travel Logjam Stumps Airlines, Disrupts Countless Summer Travel Plans

    By Janice Hisle, of Epoch Times

    Summertime is supposed to be joyful for travelers heading to vacation destinations—and airlines, too, because that’s when they typically rake in cash by the barrel.

    But 2022 has ushered in a summer of discontent for passengers and airlines worldwide, as airlines’ plans for rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic travel slump have hit one logjam after another.

    Across the globe, especially in Europe, there’s a new epidemic: canceled, overbooked, and delayed flights—and airport storage areas overflowing with lost and misdirected baggage. These once-rare annoyances of air travel are now more commonplace; travelers who took smooth operations for granted now expect snafus—a new mindset that has changed the way they plan trips.

    To prevent issues, savvy travelers are increasingly entrusting delivery services like FedEx or UPS to transport luggage to their destinations. Some are putting GPS-enabled devices into their luggage, such as Apple’s AirTag or the Tile tracker. And people traveling in groups are sprinkling a few pieces of clothing per person into each checked bag instead of risking having someone lose an entire vacation wardrobe.

    Airport information screens are showing “ON TIME” less frequently this summer. (Stock photo/Matthew Smith/Unsplash)

    For now, if an air traveler manages to have a leisurely getaway and hassle-free experience, they might feel like they’ve won the lottery. Chances for bad experiences have increased, a trend likely to continue as the summer progresses, says Jay Ratliff, an aviation expert with more than three decades of experience.

    “Travel used to be something we enjoyed. But it’s turned into something we endure,” he said. One day last week, Ratliff’s email was brimming with more than 800 new messages, many of them from fed-up airline customers turning to him for help—or to vent.

    “I’ve never seen it this bad, industry-wide,” said Ratliff.

    “There are a lot of things contributing to this mess that we’re in, but it comes down to the airlines trying to operate too many flights, and they simply didn’t have enough employees to pull it off,” Ratliff said, noting the situation is “10 times worse in Europe.”

    Ratliff said that the percentage of flight delays serves as a barometer for how bad the problems are. During average years, he would see single-digit percentages of delayed flights for many airlines across the globe. But one day last week, 54 percent of British Airways flights were behind schedule, for example. He rattles off other recent jaw-dropping statistics at major hubs: In Brussels, Belgium, up to 72 percent of flights were late, and in Frankfurt, Germany, 68 percent of flights were delayed.

    In many cases, flight delays cause missed connections. When those passengers seek rebooking, the airlines often cannot find seats for them because flights are filled. That can leave passengers stranded at unintended destinations for hours, or even days.

    Ratliff said that several airports have been “begging airlines to stop selling tickets because terminals are filling up” with travelers waiting for rebooked flights.

    Adding to the mess: rental cars are scarce, another COVID-created problem. When pandemic was raging, few people were renting cars. That prompted rental companies to sell portions of their fleets. They also halted plans to buy replacements. Now that travelers are back, rental agencies are having problems securing new vehicles, which are selling at inflated prices. So when people try to get a rental car at the last minute, either because they failed to plan or were stranded by flight disruptions, they often rely on Uber or Lyft, or they may roam the airport for a prolonged period.

    Lufthansa was forced to cancel flights affecting about 130,000 passengers because of a worker strike set for July 27, 2022. (Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo, 2020/Reuters)

    This week, Europe’s woes worsened. German-based Lufthansa airlines announced it was canceling “almost all flights to and from Frankfurt and Munich.” The cancellations took effect July 27 because a union representing ground workers was waging a single-day walkout to demand higher pay. In a statement, the airline said the impact was “massive;” cancellations affected more than 130,000 passengers.

    Ratliff, who worked in management for Northwest Airlines from 1981-2001, explained how the COVID-19 pandemic set the stage for the current crisis. Airlines were forced to cut their workforces through layoffs and early retirements. Those measures were necessary to stay afloat when demand for air travel slowed to a trickle during the pandemic’s worst surges in 2020-21. “What business can survive with 95 percent of their customers no longer knocking on the door?” he asked.

    Airline executives reasoned that travel demand would eventually come roaring back—and when it did, they’d hire replacements for the former employees. But it wasn’t that simple. “They found they weren’t able to hire as fast as they thought they could,” Ratliff said. Background screenings and training for new workers can be time-consuming, too.

    As a result, many airlines and airports remain understaffed in many job categories, ranging from pilots to baggage handlers to ticketing agents and customer service reps.

    Suitcases are seen uncollected at Heathrow’s Terminal Three baggage reclaim, west of London, on July 8, 2022. (Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)

    Anticipating a staffing shortfall, airlines cut back flights during summer, when they would typically add flights. Those cutbacks surely made airline executives wince, Ratliff said. “They want as many of those ‘silver revenue tubes’ flying as they can during the summer,” he said, “because that’s the time when they make their money.”

    However, Ratliff said that even the curtailed flight schedules “assumed a perfect scenario” from May-June this year. During the Memorial Day weekend travel rush, it became clear that those ideal projections were unrealistic; systems disintegrated if bad weather rolled in or if a handful of employees called in sick, sometimes suffering from COVID-19. Such unpredictable events are capable of touching off a domino effect of airport problems. That was true even in the pre-pandemic era. But this summer, the airport house-of-cards is so precarious, a major thunderstorm could cause “a coast-to-coast cascading problem” that might persist for weeks, Ratliff said.

    Still, U.S. airlines are faring better than European ones. Airlines in Europe are having more trouble adjusting because demand for travel in those nations continued to lag while U.S. travel demand gradually picked up. During that ramp-up period, especially in the past year or so, U.S.-based airlines “learned some things,” Ratliff said; executives could see that they would need to curtail flights because they lacked the personnel to keep pace.

    Meanwhile, Europe faced a 77-percent drop in international traffic—or more—“and then, all of a sudden, here they come,” travelers flocking to Europe to fulfill long-delayed travel itineraries, Ratliff said.

    Europe’s air-travel landscape is “a crazy, crazy mess,” Ratliff said, blaming it on flight schedules that were even more “aggressive” than many American air carriers’ schedules.

    “This is a self-inflicted airline problem,” Ratliff said. “They rolled out this summer schedule thinking they could operate more flights than they were able to do.

    They miscalculated. And who’s paying for it? The poor passengers.”

    Travelers who expected to follow a nice, curved arc from their point of origin to their destination instead ended up bouncing along a zigzag path. In the worst single travel nightmare that Ratliff had heard of, a family started its journey with seven boarding passes—and ended up with 96 of them.

    KLM, a Dutch airline, recently suffered a baggage system malfunction. This 2020 file photo was taken in Amsterdam. (Piroschka van de Wouw/Reuters)

    A synopsis of that family’s odyssey: After leaving Washington’s Dulles Airport, the group ended up missing flights, then being rebooked in multiple international hubs. “And, of course, their bags—did they keep up?” Ratliff asked. “Ha, not a chance!”

    Additional problems with flights and baggage seem to grab headlines every few days. Last week, a baggage-system malfunction at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol caused KLM (Royal Dutch Airlines) in the Netherlands to take an unusual step. On July 20, the airline could not process luggage for most of the day, the airline said in a statement. As a result, “thousands of suitcases” were left behind while their owners traveled to other places. The next day, July 21, KLM refused to accept checked bags for passengers traveling between European cities. The goal was to “free up as much space as possible” on that day’s flights so that left-behind baggage could be transported.

    In the U.S., there is a shortage of baggage handlers partly because of uncompetitive wages, Ratliff said. In some places, those jobs pay about $16 an hour, he said, “and you could go work at McDonald’s in that same airport for $20 an hour—so why would you want to go out and work in all kinds of weather when you can be inside and make more money?”

    Many travelers are putting tracking devices on their luggage—but that doesn’t always help. Even if the tracker reveals the bag’s location, some passengers are reporting that airlines are telling them to travel to distant cities to retrieve their bags.

    Existing methods for reuniting lost bags with their rightful owners are being stretched to their limits by the current crisis—which affected Joanne Prater and her family in ways they never anticipated. Prater, who is Scottish and lives in the United States, says her 50-day quest to recover a checked bag has made her painfully aware of the inconvenience, stress, and emotional impact that people can experience over checked items that go missing.

    Longing to visit her family in Scotland, Prater scored a deal for half-price airfare: $500 per person, including checked bags. She, her husband, and their three sons drove from their Cincinnati-area home to Chicago. On June 6, they boarded an Aer Lingus flight and were bound for Dublin, Ireland, and Glasgow, Scotland. But when the family arrived at their destination, one bag belonging to her two youngest sons, ages 12 and 8, was missing.

    As a result, the boys had only “the clothes on their backs,” Prater said. Worse yet, the bag contained a varsity jacket that holds special meaning for the family, along with team jerseys that the boys wanted to show off to their relatives. “How do you explain to your children that their favorite clothes are missing?” Prater said. After it became clear that the boys’ bag wouldn’t materialize anytime soon, the family purchased several outfits for them, paying the U.S. equivalent of about $500.

    Prater repeatedly called the airline, sometimes stuck on hold for 45 minutes, only to have the call disconnected or to be in touch with a representative with whom she had communication difficulties. She finally resorted to returning to the Glasgow airport during her vacation, hoping that in-person contact would prove more fruitful than phone calls or electronic messages.

    At the airport, an Aer Lingus employee did seem sympathetic to her concerns. To Prater’s surprise, the employee escorted her into a corridor that was outside public view. There, a sight took Prater’s breath away: the hallway was lined with hundreds of pieces of luggage and other lost articles, such as strollers, car seats, and golf clubs.

    “People save all their lives for a dream vacation to come to my country, Scotland, where golf was invented, only to have their golf clubs lost? I mean, men collect clubs, and they’re expensive; you’re not bringing Fisher-Price clubs to Scotland to play golf,” Prater said. “It was just gut-wrenching to me. I’m standing there thinking about all of these poor families without their strollers, without their car seats, without their clothing.”

    Despite repeated attempts to find the missing suitcase,  the Praters returned home to the United States without it.  Prater continued her attempts to file various complaints with the airline, to no avail.

    Prater said she feels a kinship with other people who have formed groups on social media to vent their frustrations and to try to help each other locate their lost belongings. As of July 26, there was still no sign of the Praters’ bag, which was last seen in Dublin in early June, Prater said she was told.

    When The Epoch Times asked Aer Lingus for comment on Prater’s situation, the airline responded via email: “We understand the concern and frustrations felt by our customers whose baggage has been delayed and the impact this has had on their travel plans. Regrettably, our airline is being impacted by widespread disruption and resource challenges.” The airline also said it is taking steps to resolve the issues, including enlisting help from third-party companies to return items to their owners.

    Prater said she isn’t holding out much hope that the lost bag can be found, yet she still isn’t giving up because, “at this point, it’s about accountability.” It angers her that airlines seem to have offered flights and baggage services that they were ill-equipped to provide. “I’m probably never going to check a bag again because of this experience,” she said.

    Ratliff, the aviation expert, said he doesn’t see the airline crisis abating quickly. He predicts issues could persist into mid-2023. In his view, “If the airlines have packed airplanes now, treating passengers the way they’re treating them, there’s not really an incentive for them to change how they’re doing things.”

    Troubleshooting Tips for Travelers

    Jay Ratliff, an aviation expert, provides these tips for avoiding airline-related hassles:

    • Make your reservations as far in advance as possible, which also protects you from fare increases.
    • Catch the first flight in the morning. “There is no more important flight of the day for an airline than that first flight of the day,” he said because airlines know that if that flight goes out on time, it’s more likely that the rest of that day’s flights will follow suit. “And,” Ratliff said, “it’s going to be the cleanest airplane because no one has been flying in it yet.”
    • Put a copy of your itinerary into your bag before you close it, increasing the chances that an airline employee will be able to return your bag to you if it is lost.
    • Consider purchasing a tracking device such as Apple’s AirTag or a Tile.
    • Take a photograph of your bag as you’re checking in to aid in locating it.
    • Make sure you never put essential items such as medication or car keys into a checked bag.
    • Allow extra time at the airport, reducing the chance you’ll miss your flight and face a nightmare rebooking it. “Let’s not play the game of ‘let’s see how close we can cut it,’” he said.
    • If you have an important event such as a cruise ship departure or a wedding to attend at your destination, build a “buffer” into your travel plans.
    • If your flight is delayed or canceled, use social media to contact airlines because they likely have more people working on social media than they do working the phones, Ratliff said. Be succinct in sharing what’s going on and what you need.
    • If all else fails and you have a horrible experience with your flight or luggage, fill out an airline complaint form with the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). “That completely changes the tone of the conversation,” Ratliff said. “The airlines can ignore us (individual passengers), but they can’t ignore the DOT.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 23:10

  • Biden Admin To Unveil Reformulated Booster Shots In September
    Biden Admin To Unveil Reformulated Booster Shots In September

    The Biden administration is aiming for a mid-September rollout for reformulated Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 booster shots, after both companies promised they would be able to deliver doses by then, according to the New York Times, citing people familiar with the deliberations.

    The new versions are expected to perform better against then now-dominant (yet far more mild than Delta) BA.5 Omicron subvariant, though the Times notes that data on the reformulated shots is still preliminary.

    As such, federal officials have decided not to expand eligibility for the next round of existing boosters this summer – which have only been approved for Americans over 50, or those over the age of 12 who have immune deficiencies.

    Dr Fauci, interestingly enough, apparently didn’t get his way, as the Times reports that he was pushing for more of the current vaccine to go into arms before the reformulated version is ready.

    In internal deliberations, some senior health officials argued that eligibility for a second booster should be broadened before the reformulated version is ready because coronavirus infections are on the rise again. Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the president’s chief medical adviser, and Dr. Ashish K. Jha, the White House pandemic response coordinator, both advocated that position. -NYT

    “I think there should be flexibility and permissiveness in at least allowing” a second booster for younger Americans, Fauci told the Times earlier this month.

    Another alternative under discussion was offering the shots only to a subset of younger, at-risk individuals – such as pregnant women (who don’t have periods to disrupt!).

    The FDA and the CDC, however, said the government should concentrate on a fall campaign for the reformulated doses, as long as they were ready for ‘prime time’ (disregarding the typical decade of so development and safety testing for most vaccinations, of course). Both Pfizer and Moderna said millions of doses would be ready by mid-September, so regulators made the call to wait for those shots.

    All adults are expected to be eligible for the updated boosters, while Children could be eligible as well according to insiders.

    According to the Biden administration, anyone who is eligible for shots now should just get them as opposed to waiting for the fall – despite its reduced efficacy against Omicron vs. the original strains it was developed for.

    The Times notes that “Deaths from Covid-19 are still heavily concentrated among older age groups, while hospitalizations remain well below the peak of the Omicron wave last winter.

    One concern was assuring that people did not get a booster now followed by another with the updated formulation too soon after. Officials worried that, especially for young men, two boosters in close succession might elevate the risk of a rare heart-related side effect, myocarditis, that has been linked to both Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines.

    For other reasons, immunologists warn against receiving booster shots in short intervals. -NYT

    “You can’t get a vaccine shot Aug. 1 and get another vaccine shot Sept. 15 and expect the second shot to do anything,” said La Jolla Institute of Immunology virologist, Shane Crotty. “You’ve got so much antibody around, if you get another dose, it won’t do anything.”

    “The antibodies stop that next dose from working” if the next dose is administered too early, he continued.

    It will be interesting to see how many people actually get booster shots, given that federal officials are already concerned over the ‘public’s patience with additional shots,’ according to the Times, which notes that the number of people getting the jab has been dropping more with each new one offered – to the point where fewer than 30% of eligible Americans have elected to receive a second booster, which would be their fourth total shot.

    To accomplish the rollout, the Department of Health and Human Services made an advance purchase of 105 million doses of Pfizer’s reformulated offering for $3.2 billion, with a possible fall deployment in mind. A similar agreement with Moderna is expected soon.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 22:50

  • FBI Likely Did 'Intentionally Undermine' A Congressional Probe On Hunter Biden: Senator
    FBI Likely Did ‘Intentionally Undermine’ A Congressional Probe On Hunter Biden: Senator

    Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) criticized the FBI on July 26, alleging that the bureau was “weaponized” against two U.S. senators when it arranged an intelligence briefing in August 2020.

    Hunter Biden walks to Marine One on the Ellipse outside the White House in Washington on May 22, 2021. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)

    Johnson’s criticism was based on new revelations that surfaced a day earlier, when Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) divulged that certain FBI officials had a “scheme” to wrongly label “derogatory information” on Hunter Biden as disinformation, based on what his office learned from “highly credible whistleblowers.”

    By inaccurately labeling verified evidence as disinformation, FBI officials halted investigative activities related to Hunter Biden in 2020.

    If these recent whistleblower revelations are true, it would strongly suggest that the FBI’s August 6, 2020 briefing was indeed a targeted effort to intentionally undermine a Congressional investigation,” Johnson wrote in a letter (pdf) obtained by Just the News. The letter was sent to Attorney General Merrick Garland, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, FBI Director Christopher Wray, and Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz.

    Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) departs from the Senate Chambers in the U.S. Capitol in Washington on July 21, 2022. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    “If these whistleblower allegations are accurate, how can your agency, Director Wray, be capable of investigating the president’s son?” Johnson continued. “Unfortunately, the FBI can no longer be trusted to investigate Hunter Biden with integrity and the equal application of law.

    2020 Briefing

    Johnson and Grassley were probing the Biden family’s financial transactions when they were asked to attend an FBI briefing on Aug. 6, 2020. According to Johnson, the briefing was “completely unnecessary” and “completely irrelevant” to their probe.

    However, the contents of the briefing were leaked to media outlets, prompting Johnson and Grassley to question the motivation behind the briefing.

    In his letter, Johnson concluded that the 2020 briefing was “a set up to intentionally discredit our ongoing work into Hunter Biden’s extensive foreign financial entanglements,” pointing to an article published by The Washington Post on May 1, 2021.

    Grassley also raised concerns about the same Washington Post article in his letter (pdf) to Garland in June 2021.

    “The Washington Post article inaccurately linked Russian attempts to spread disinformation to my and Senator Johnson’s investigation into the extensive financial connections between the Biden family and individuals connected to the communist Chinese government’s military and intelligence services,” Grassley wrote.

    Information relating to the [Aug. 6, 2020] briefing was also used by Democratic Senators last Congress to publicly malign us and our investigation for the purpose of slowing it down, painting it in a false public light, and undermining its integrity.”

    Senate Judiciary Ranking Member Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) speaks at a hearing with the Senate Judiciary Committee in the Dirksen Senate Office Building in Washington on July 12, 2022. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    As such, Johnson said the FBI was “weaponized” against himself and Grassley, according to his letter.

    The FBI being weaponized against two sitting chairmen of U.S. Senate committees with constitutional oversight responsibilities would be one of the greatest episodes of Executive Branch corruption in American history,” Johnson wrote.

    Johnson, former chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, is now the ranking member on the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. Grassley, who was once chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, is now the ranking member on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

    On Sept. 23, 2020, about a month after the 2020 briefing, Grassley and Johnson released a report revealing that there was “potential criminal activity relating to transactions among and between Hunter Biden, his family, and his associates with Ukrainian, Russian, Kazakh, and Chinese nationals,” while Joe Biden was vice president during the Obama administration.

    The two senators have continued their probe into Hunter Biden. In March, they presented bank records on the Senate floor showing CEFC China Energy, a now-defunct company, made payments to Hunter Biden.

    Request

    Johnson concluded his letter by saying that the FBI and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence haven’t responded to his request for information on “the purpose of, and who ordered” the 2020 briefing, despite his effort for nearly two years. He said the two agencies’ refusal to be transparent “is deeply concerning.”

    The senator from Wisconsin suggested that the Office of the Inspector General could conduct an “objective review” or appoint a special counsel to address his concerns.

    Johnson also reiterated his concerns over conflicts of interests, including how Nicholas McQuaid, the principal deputy assistant attorney general for the Justice Department’s criminal division, was a fellow partner in a law firm with an attorney who has represented Hunter Biden.

    Currently, the U.S. attorney’s office in Delaware is investigating Hunter Biden for possible tax violations.

    “Attorney General Garland, you have failed to provide Senator Grassley and me with assurances that any DOJ investigation into Hunter Biden’s potential criminal activity will be free of conflicts of interest,” Johnson wrote. “The American people should not have to tolerate your silence any longer.”

    Department of Justice officials didn’t respond by press time to a request for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 22:30

  • Extreme Weather Flips US Navy Helicopters In Freak 'Microburst'
    Extreme Weather Flips US Navy Helicopters In Freak ‘Microburst’

    US Navy helicopters were damaged when a line of severe thunderstorms swept through southern Virginia on Tuesday at Naval Station Norfolk. 

    USNI News reported ten helicopters experienced damage, including five MH-60S Knight Hawks, one MH-60R Sea Hawk, and four MH-53E Sea Dragons. 

    A Navy initial assessment of the incident showed each helicopter was marked as a “Class A ground mishap,” meaning the aircraft experienced over $2.5 million in damage. 

    “The Navy is continuing to assess the full extent of the damages to each airframe, but there are no impacts to operational forces as a result of this incident.

    “Known damages to the aircraft span from broken tail and rotor blades to structural dents and punctures in the airframes. No personnel were injured during the storm,” Cmdr. Rob Myers with Naval Air Forces Atlantic said in a statement. 

    Images posted on social media show what appears to be a warzone. 

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    NWS received minimal reports of damage in the area, which may suggest a microburst hit the naval base. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 22:10

  • 'Friends' Co-Creator Gives $4 Million To Brandeis To Atone For Her "Internalized Systemic Racism"
    ‘Friends’ Co-Creator Gives $4 Million To Brandeis To Atone For Her “Internalized Systemic Racism”

    Authored by Jonathan Draeger via The College Fix,

    The co-creator of the TV show “Friends” announced she would give $4 million to Brandeis University for a professorship in African and African American Studies in order to advance her own “anti-racist” views and atone for past racism.

    “It took me a long time to begin to understand how I internalized systemic racism,” Marta Kauffman stated in the news release put out by her alma mater.

    “I’ve been working really hard to become an ally, an anti-racist.”

    The donation “seemed to me to be a way that I could participate in the conversation from a white woman’s perspective,” she stated.

    “I hope it becomes the leading AAAS department in the country,” Kauffman stated in a video put out along with the announcement.

    Brandeis founded the department in 1969. Eleven undergraduate students graduated from the African and African-American Studies department in 2021, according to the diploma ceremony.

    “It is the first endowed professorship in the program, which means it will ensure the study of African and African American culture, history, and politics for generations of Brandeis students—something more critical than ever,” President Rob Liebowitz stated in the announcement.

    “The gift will also help the department to recruit more expert scholars and teachers,” the university announced. The donation will help “map long-term academic and research priorities and provide new opportunities for students to engage in interdisciplinary scholarship.”

    The College Fix reached out to twice via email in the past two weeks to Chad Williamson and Faith Smith, two professors in the AAAS Department to ask for more information on the goals for the donation.

    Neither responded, nor did department administrator Betsy Plumb.

    The Fix also emailed spokesman David Eisenberg for further information on the goals of the endowment and if it included boosting enrollment in the department. He did not respond.

    Kauffman also apologized for jokes about transgenderism, lack of racial diversity

    In addition to the $4 million donation to Brandeis, Kauffman’s self-reflection on her racism has also led to further apologies. She has also apologized for not using the correct pronouns for a character in “Friends.”

    “We kept referring to her [Chandler’s transgender parent] as ‘Chandler’s father’, even though Chandler’s father was trans,” Kauffman stated in a recent interview.

    “Pronouns were not yet something that I understood. So we didn’t refer to that character as ‘she’. That was a mistake.”

    Criticism over lack of racial diversity on her hit show also led to apologies.

    “Admitting and accepting guilt is not easy,” Kaufmann told the Los Angeles Times on June 29.

    “It’s painful looking at yourself in the mirror. I’m embarrassed that I didn’t know better 25 years ago,” the show creator told the newspaper.

    She has promised to crack down on offensive comments. Kaufmann told BBC that she fired a staffer for making a joke about a transgender person.

    “It’s very important to me that where we are is a safe place, a tolerant place, where there’s no yelling,” she stated, in reference to her show “Grace and Frankie.”

    “I fired a guy on the spot for making a joke about a trans cameraperson. That just can’t happen,” she told the interviewer.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 21:50

  • Massive Chinese Rocket In "Uncontrolled Descent" Expected To Crash Into Earth In Days
    Massive Chinese Rocket In “Uncontrolled Descent” Expected To Crash Into Earth In Days

    China’s largest rocket, the Long March 5B that delivered the Wentian laboratory module to the new space station, is expected to deorbit and fall back to Earth. 

    The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies (CORDS) said the Long March 5B is set for an uncontrolled descent into Earth’s atmosphere on Sunday (31 Jul 2022 00:24 UTC ± 16 hours). 

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    CORDS said the 10-story tall, 20-ton rocket is “now in an elliptical orbit around Earth where it is being dragged toward an uncontrolled reentry.” 

    “We estimate, based on previous experience, that somewhere between four, five to nine tons, depending on exactly how it’s configured, will survive reentry.

    “When it comes down, it will certainly exceed the 1-in-10,000 (risk of injury to people on Earth) threshold that is the generally accepted guideline,” Ted Muelhaupt of the Aerospace Corporation in a press conference Wednesday. 

    The map shows the prediction window of where the rocket could land along the blue or yellow paths. CORDS noted “the yellow satellite icon indicating the center of the reentry window.” 

    This isn’t the first time a Long March 5B deorbited and crashed back to Earth. In May 2020, parts of a Chinese rocket crashed into an African village.

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    Then again, in May 2021, another one splashed down in the Indian Ocean. 

    Why should people be looking up at the sky this weekend?

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    US Space Command warned the track of the Chinese rocket “cannot be pinpointed until within hours of its reentry.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 21:30

  • All The Trips To Davos Have Gone To Larry Fink's Head
    All The Trips To Davos Have Gone To Larry Fink’s Head

    Authored by Scott Shepard via RealClearMarkets.com,

    Larry Fink really has let all of those trips to Davos go to his head.

    In what is, so far as I know, the BlackRock CEO’s most recent act of public grandiloquence, he and BlackRock have urged the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) to modify its proposed greenhouse-gas emissions disclosure rule.

    That standard Fink megalomania comes not from the request itself, but from its grounds. He does not ask that it be withdrawn because it is illegally beyond the SEC’s statutory remit, though it surely is, especially in light of a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling. He doesn’t seek its withdrawal because it will create massive expense for no possible benefit, though that’s true too. He doesn’t even oppose the rule because it will harm small farmers, small businesses and small investors while aggregating wealth and opportunity to his own private-equity class. (Well, no: of course not that.)

    Rather, Fink’s objection to the rule is that it deviated from the disclosure demands that have issued from him – from him and from Mike Bloomberg and from the self-appointed New Ruling Class – embodied this time as the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). These new malefactors of great self-regard, you see, don’t care for it when representatives of elected government dare to contradict the commandments of the World Economic Forum (WEF) set.

    Mind you, the SEC’s proposed rule does violate its statutory authority; it does violate the Commission’s basic responsibility of assisting Main Street shareholders and smaller corporations in the capital markets; it is vastly costly, entirely pointless and wholly biased. The TCFD proposals are also immensely costly and entirely pointless and biased (in favor of politicized decarbonization, against basic technological and economic reality) though, and they come without any statutory or moral authority at all. The TCFD, like the Sustainable Accounting Standards Board and the WEF, is just an agglomeration of billionaires who have decided that they’d quite like the world to be run according to their personal policy preferences – thank you very much – and that they don’t intend to subject themselves to indignities like getting elected in order to achieve that end.

    You can understand why they’ve dropped any plans to earn democratic legitimacy. Recall the spectacular failure that was Mike Bloomberg’s campaign for the Democratic nomination in 2020. From revelations that he had demanded that women staffers abort pregnancies to disclosures that old Nanny Bloomberg was pretty much an authoritarian all around, the Little Dictator didn’t come out of the experience very well. But that hasn’t thwarted his desire to rule.

    Nor did it serve as a lesson to Fink. One might think Fink would be more careful, given that he carries a raft of fiduciary duties to investors and shareholders that Bloomberg, as the owner of a private company, doesn’t. But no. While he occasionally makes transparently false statements about the nonpartisan character of his interference with the governance and planning at the rest of U.S. publicly traded corporations, the truth invariably outs, as when he accidentally admitted that he is acting to “force” corporations, and through them all of us worldwide, to do his bidding, such as equity-based discrimination and politicized decarbonization, because he personally is “very passionate about” those policy goals.

    In other words, Larry and Mike very much wish the world to dance to their tunes, exactly as they play them, and they don’t want any interfering governments trying to play along, even if it’s pretty much the same stupid tune.

    Larry, though, may wish to take a care as he seeks to set a crown upon his head. For as he accumulates the real power of dictatorship, he also collects the responsibility, and the dangers. Surely he is aware by now that forcing the West into climate-catastrophist decarbonization guarantees is already creating a pointless, but world-historical, disaster. Consider developments just in the last couple of weeks:

    • Germany, and Europe generally, have delivered themselves, bound and on their knees, to Russia, having decarbonized according to their incoherent political schedules rather than according to technological and financial need – just as Larry wants to “force” the U.S. to do because he personally is “very passionate about” it. All of this “threatens social peace” in Germany and around the continent – which is fine, right? Nothing bad has ever followed from that.

    • All of this has forced Europe to revert to coal use, meaning that political decarbonization leads to eventual recarbonization of the least-efficient sorts.

    • China continues to ramp up its coal production and use, as do India and other non-western nations, with none indicating any serious willingness to stop such increases. This is fair enough; why should they be denied moving from developing to developed because western billionaires want to change the rules, pulling the ladders up behind themselves? The result: no amount of western decarbonization can have any real effect on the earth’s climate, the only conceivable legitimate justification for decarbonization. (The growing suspicion that the WEF set knows that political decarbonization can’t achieve the stated goals, but really wants it as a way of keeping the hoi polloi trapped in constrained penury so that they can have the world to themselves is, of course, wholly illegitimate.)

    • Japan’s long-struggling economy has been hit hard by the current energy crisis, leaving it less prepared to respond to any negative effects that might arise from the climate change that political decarbonization can’t stop.

    • The Netherlands has erupted in protests in response to government nitrogen-reduction regulations that threaten to destroy one of Europe’s strongest agricultural centers. These pointless regulations, based on doubtful science, do their work just as the world faces serious food shortages.

    • Those food and energy deficiencies, driven by a series of “green” initiatives such as taking the whole country organic, have brought Sri Lanka to its knees – sending one president and prime minister already into exile, and the Sri Lankan people into dire suffering.

    • Here at home, Texas’ inexplicable and undefendable embrace of wind power threatens its energy reliability and – again – forces it back on record fossil-fuel demand.

    There’s plenty more, but I think these items make the point. Or most of the point. Consider one last fact: that as Larry and Mike (and Brian Moynihan of Bank of America and David Solomon of Goldman Sachs and the rest of the Davos crowd) “force” American corporations to sign on to political-schedule decarbonization because they’re so personally passionate about it, they’ve also engineered an exemption from the European Union’s new “green” fuel tax for – do you even have to guess? – private jets.

    Larry & Co., you see, mean not only to rule like dictators, but to live like dictators.

    All of this put me in mind of Patrick Henry. In 1765, when a separate set of dictators (a crowd just as unelected by any Americans as the WEFers) sought to strip proto-Americans of their basic and fundamental rights through the Stamp Act, Henry offered a warning to George III, the chief unelected despot of that era. In the peroration of a speech against the act in the Virginia House of Burgesses he reminded his fellows that “Caesar had his Brutus, Charles the First his Cromwell and George the Third … may profit by their example.”

    As Larry, Mike, et al. grasp for themselves the power and trappings of tyranny in order to advance policies that will destroy both liberty and prosperity for the American people – just as George and his parliament did – let us hope that they, too, profit from those examples.

    *  *  *

    Scott Shepard is a fellow at the National Center for Public Policy Research and Director of its Free Enterprise Project.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 21:10

  • President Xi Chaired The July Politburo Meeting Today: Here's What Happened
    President Xi Chaired The July Politburo Meeting Today: Here’s What Happened

    President Xi chaired the July Politburo meeting today which set the tone for the broad policy stance in 2H of this year.

    The statement following the meeting reiterated the “Dynamic Zero Covid” policy stance and focused on implementing the already announced policy measures. On property, the statement restated “housing is for living in, not for speculation” (which was mentioned in the April Politburo meeting), and highlighted that local governments should take responsibilities in “guaranteeing the delivery of homes“, consistent with China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC)’s recent statement.

    Courtesy of Goldman China analyst Maggie Wei, here are the main points:

    1. President Xi chaired the July Politburo meeting today. The statement was mostly a reiteration of implementing the already announced measures, though on the fiscal front, today’s statement hinted at additional local government bond issuance quota. Specifically on fiscal policy, the statement stated it will make the full use of local government special bond (LGSB) proceeds and the limit on outstanding LGSB this year, which could imply at most another RMB 1.5 trillion LGSB issuance quota available for use this year (according to the MOF, the actual outstanding LGSB amount is RMB 20.4 trillion, assuming the annual quota will be fulfilled by year-end, and the limit on the overall LGSB outstanding this year is RMB 21.8 trillion). On monetary policy, Politburo reiterated that liquidity conditions should be reasonably ample, credit support should be stepped up, and policymakers would make the best use of the newly announced credit quota for policy banks and infrastructure investment fund. In recent State Council meetings, policymakers announced an additional RMB800bn policy bank loan quota, and another RMB300bn credit support by policy banks to facilitate infrastructure investment.

    2. The July Politburo meeting statement toned down the nationwide full-year economic growth target by requiring “large and capable” provinces (likely referring to coastal provinces which are less hit by Covid lockdowns,) to work hard on achieving full-year economic targets, which stood in contrast to the statement of “working hard to achieve full-year targets” in the April meeting.

    3. Today’s statement restated that policymakers would stick to the “Dynamic Zero Covid” policy stance, and highlighted “political considerations” behind this decision. However, policymakers also required to ensure smooth operations of key functions of the society, while working on tracking new variant of Covid and development of Covid treatment. This may imply potential adjustments to the Dynamic Zero Covid policy implementation similar to what we saw in late June as the Covid situation evolves.

    4. The discussion around property is not new. The July Politburo meeting emphasized “housing is for living in, not for speculation“, which was mentioned in the April Politburo meeting as well, and added that local governments should take responsibilities in “guaranteeing the delivery of homes“, consistent with CBIRC’s recent statements. Relatedly, an FT article on July 28 reported a potential RMB 200bn program by the PBOC to help facilitate property completions. Regulators and local governments are focusing on continuing construction of pre-sold projects while keeping the broad policy on housing unchanged.

    5. In response to the rural bank event in Henan, today’s statement required policymakers to ensure financial stability and properly handle risks from rural banks (Media report suggests policymakers would use 320bn LGSB quota to replenish capital for small and medium-sized banks). On platform company regulation, the statement echoed the positive tone from the April meeting and urged policymakers to complete regulation on platform companies and facilitate a batch of sample investment projects with “green light”. Politburo also discussed securing the supply of food and energy, stabilizing prices, supporting employment of college graduates and working hard on improving people’s livelihood, which are reiteration of recent policy communications.

    6. In general, the July Politburo meeting suggests that the “Dynamic Zero Covid” policy stance is here to stay, and while full-year economic targets appear challenging on a nationwide basis. Policymakers would maintain their supportive stance, in particular continue to push for infrastructure investment to support the overall economy. The lack of mentioning of a potential property fund, which was widely discussed over media in recent days might appear disappointing to investors, but there is still a chance that PBOC and relevant government institutions would follow up and announce concrete supportive measures to the property sector in the next few days/weeks.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 20:50

  • Here We Go Again: Wuhan Locks Down 1 Million People After Detecting Four COVID Cases
    Here We Go Again: Wuhan Locks Down 1 Million People After Detecting Four COVID Cases

    In yet another prime example of throwing the baby, the bottle, the bonnet, and literally everything else that’s within reach, out with the bathwater, Wuhan has decided to lock down a district of almost 1 million people after discovering just “four asymptomatic Covid cases”.

    And to think, Wuhan’s tourism industry was just starting to recover…

    But seriously, China’s stringent zero-Covid policy has once again caused the country to enforce draconian lockdowns in Wuhan’s Jiangxia district, where more than 970,000 people live. China called it three days of “temporary control measures,” according to CNN

    The province shut down bars, cinemas internet cafes, small clinics, agricultural product marketplaces, restaurant, dining and large gatherings, the report says. It also shuttered events “from performances to conferences,” including all places of worship. Tutoring institutions and tourist attractions also were forced to lock down. 

    Public transport in the province has also been suspended and residents have been told not to leave. There have been “four high risk neighborhoods” identified within the province, with four other neighborhoods posing a “medium” risk. 

    China is aiming to “further reduce the flow of people, lower the risk of cross-infection and achieve dynamic zero-Covid in the shortest time possible,” a government statement says. The four cases were found during regular testing drives and then through contact tracing of those individuals. 

    The lockdowns which China once again re-implemented toward the beginning of this year caused shockwaves for many companies doing business in the country, not the least of which was Tesla, and further exacerbated supply chain bottlenecks – many of which have been in place for almost 3 years now. 

    Recall, back in April, Zero Hedge contributor Quoth the Raven asked whether or nothing something was “rotten” in the state of Shanghai’s latest lockdowns. “The actions China has taken to implement this round of lockdowns have been dystopian and Orwellian, to say the least,” he wrote at the beginning of April. 

    “There are a innumerable amount of disturbing things about the dystopian way this alleged outbreak is being handled, but none more pressing is the question of why it is being handled the way it is,” he continued. “Why continue the country’s completely irrational and inane “Covid Zero” policy at this point?”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 20:10

  • Why Bitcoin Is A CDS On The Fed
    Why Bitcoin Is A CDS On The Fed

    Authored by Adam Taha via BitcoinMagazine.com,

    With rampant inflation and institutional unease in the air, bitcoin is prepared to gain exponentially.

    The latest consumer price index (CPI) print came out at a shocking 9.1% (9.8% in cities), and many speculators expected bitcoin’s price to “moon.” What happened was the opposite and bitcoin’s price action correlated with other risk assets. Many threw an expected tantrum and asked why? “I thought BTC was a hedge against inflation … when moon?”

    Keep in mind that bitcoin is a 13-year old resilient asset with just 13 years of network effect. How is it resilient? While the dollar, as we all know, has continued its meteoric climb, posting fresh yearly highs versus the British pound, euro, and Japanese yen year to date, making it a wrecking ball against most foreign currencies and risk-on assets.

    However, for the past few weeks something incredible started happening: The price of bitcoin (in USD) has been building on strong support even as the dollar gains. This signifies a massively important event in my opinion.

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin’s price action frustrates some retail investors. That’s because the market is not dominated by retail. It’s dominated by institutional investors and “big money.” Institutions dominate the market but are themselves bogged down by rules, regulations and policies. As such, they view bitcoin as a risk-on asset and when inflation runs hot (latest print of 9.1%) then they go risk-off – especially when interest rates are high (“quantitative tightening” (QT) environment). Generally, “cash is king” is a common statement in traditional finance and the current fiat system for many investors. Institutions sell their risk assets (risk-off) and they buy cash (USD) and cash-flow equities when the DXY rises.

    Note that gold and silver have also significantly dropped in the last few weeks. So, what happened to their safe store-of-value proposition? Nothing. The proposition itself likely still holds. It’s not about the assets themselves, it’s about accumulating dollars right now. Having liquid cash is better for institutions and investors than having a valuable yet illiquid asset. Remember, institutions view cash as king in times of high inflation and QT.

    To reiterate, Bitcoin is only 13 years old and it is taking time for retail and institutions to understand the true value of bitcoin. For now, institutional investors continue to view cash as king, and many people in retail still don’t understand what kind of money bitcoin is. So, for now we’re still stuck in the Federal Reserve Board’s monetary world.

    The Fed’s policy is unsustainable. They know that, we know that. They can’t and won’t stop printing by adding liability to their balance sheets (debt to be paid off by future generations). What is the solution? Bitcoin is the solution. Sure, in two months cash will still remain king, but in two years cash will return to its original form: trash. Meanwhile, bitcoin will keep doing its thing and investors (both retail and institutions) will realize its value.

    The following statement is relative: “Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation.”

    I say relative because for someone who bought bitcoin years ago (before 2017) that statement holds true. But for someone who bought recently, that statement is taken with some skepticism. Long term, it certainly is a hedge against inflation.

    A credit default swap or CDS is an insurance instrument that institutions use when they own a bond issued by an issuer like a corporate or government bond. They can buy insurance against that bond failing (issuer defaulting). For institutions and investors, Bitcoin can and should be their CDS on the Fed failing.

    Bitcoin protects your wealth from debasement and it protects you like a CDS on the government.

    Bitcoin is your insurance policy against the government’s entire monetary policy and its “scam token” (aka the dollar).

    [ZH: Notably, USA Sovereign CDS (more indicative of devaluation than default for the reserve currency) has been ramping in recent months – to its highest since the peak of the COVID lockdowns. If Bitcoin’s historical relationship with the sovereign CDS market re-engages, it would imply BTC around $90,000.]

    The future is almost entirely digitized. Money will be no different. Bitcoin is without a doubt the only solution for a sound, immutable, secure, digital money that gives people their sovereignty. Banks are counterparties. Goldman Sachs, NYSE, Vanguard, Fidelity, and others are counterparties. With bitcoin, you own the asset outright and not the underlying asset. In today’s system, the reliance or hope is on the counterparty to uphold their end of the obligation and give what is owed to you when you need to liquidate an asset. Bitcoin flips this on its head using an elegant system of incentives, encryption, supply cap, decentralization, and a network that anyone can participate in.

    Growing your purchasing power comes second. First, you have to protect that purchasing power. How do you protect your purchasing power? Bitcoin.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 19:50

  • Rand Paul Demands Answers After NIH Admits Redacting COVID-19 Origins Emails 'To Prevent Misinformation'
    Rand Paul Demands Answers After NIH Admits Redacting COVID-19 Origins Emails ‘To Prevent Misinformation’

    Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) is demanding answers from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), after he says the agency “has repeatedly disregarded its responsibilities under FOIA (Freedom of Information Act) and the American people’s right to agency records,” according to a Wednesday letter from Paul to NIH Acting Director Lawrence A. Tabak.

    “For almost two years, public interest groups and media organizations have been forced to engage in protracted litigation to obtain documents related to NIH’s involvement in COVID-19,” adding “The records NIH has produced have been heavily redacted.”

    This suggests NIH is censoring the information it releases to the public about the origins of the pandemic.

    Paul cites an article by journalist and former Chuck Grassley investigator Paul D. Thacker, which notes an egregious admission by the NIH in Court that the agency “is withholding portions of emails between employees because they “could be used out of context and serve to amplify the already prevalent misinformation regarding the origins of the coronavirus pandemic.””

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    In an 18-page declaration to the court, NIH FOIA Officer Gorka Garcia-Malene detailed how the NIH redacts documents in compliance with the law. In the case of Exempt 6 privacy concerns, Garcia-Malene declared:

    Exemption 6 mandates the withholding of information that if disclosed “would constitute a clearly unwarranted invasion of personal privacy.” 5 U.S.C. § 552(b)(6). Exemption 6 was applied here due to the heightened public scrutiny with anything remotely related to COVID-19.

    Mr. Garcia-Malene also claimed that information had be redacted “because of the amount of misinformation surrounding the pandemic and its origins.” Seriously, the NIH is now arguing in court that because there is so much misinformation about how the pandemic began, they can’t release facts that might clear up misinformation about how the pandemic began.

    The NIH was responding to a case brought by US nonprofit Right to Know, after the NIH deleted coronavirus sequences that Chinese researchers added to the NIH’s Sequence Read Archive. As Thacker notes, “These datasets involved key studies that virologists were using at the time to promote the now discredited theory that the COVID-19 virus may have passed from pangolins to humans.

    In the case at hand, the NIH attempted (and succeeded) at sealing the name of a Chinese researcher which had already been made public.

    More via Disinformation Chronicle:

    Last week, the NIH filed a motion in a Virginia court to seal portions of documents that reference the Chinese researcher and an NIH official in a lawsuit filed against the agency for redacting and covering up records that might explain how the pandemic began.

    “[T]he individuals have a substantial privacy interest in avoiding harassment or media scrutiny that would likely follow disclosure,” wrote a lawyer for the NIH to the judge. “Sealing is therefore necessary to protect this information from any further public dissemination.”

    But what is actually being protected? The American public’s right to access public information that may reveal what kicked off the pandemic, or the purported privacy rights of a scientist who lives thousands of miles away in China? This legal ploy further highlights the NIH’s aggressive, haphazard approach to redacting documents and hiding information that might explain how the pandemic started.

    Last summer Buzzfeed released an investigation of the NIH’s Anthony Fauci and reported that the documents the agency released were “just a portion of what was requested, and they are filled with redactions, making them an incomplete record of the time period and Fauci’s correspondence.” Meanwhile, the Intercept reported in February that the NIH continues to withhold critical documents that could shed light on how the epidemic began, noting that the agency sent them 292 pages of fully redacted records.

    Among these pages, the NIH fully redacted the 2020 COVID-19 research plan put together by Anthony Fauci.

    A week after The Intercept story, The Chief Records Officer for the U.S. Government sent the NIH a letter asking them to investigate allegations that agency personnel are shredding documents related to grant-making decisions and funding for research in China.

    Kangpeng Xiao’s name became public in December 2020, when the nonprofit U.S. Right to Know published a report on revisions to coronavirus sequences that Chinese researchers had added to the NIH’s Sequence Read Archive. These datasets involved key studies that virologists were using at the time to promote the now discredited theory that the COVID-19 virus may have passed from pangolins to humans.

    “These revisions are odd because they occurred after publication, and without any rationale, explanation or validation,” wrote Sainath Suryanarayanan, in the December 2020 report for U.S. Right to Know. The nonprofit based their report on NIH documents they received from a FOIA request.

    According to these documents, several Chinese scientists asked the NIH to alter coronavirus sequences stored on the NIH database, with many of these requests coming from Kangpeng Xiao with the South China Agricultural University. In one case, Xiao asked NIH official Rick Lapoint in March 2020 to delete some coronavirus sequences.

    A few months later, Xiao published a prominent paper on May 7, 2020, in the journal Nature that argued a coronavirus discovered in pangolins was closely related to COVID-19. But as U.S. Right to Know discovered, Xiao’s request to delete coronavirus sequences from the NIH’s Sequence Read Archive (SRA) was just one of many changes.

    Xiao et al. made numerous changes to their SRA data, including the deletion of two datasets on March 10, the addition of a new dataset on June 19, a November 8 replacement of data first released on October 30, and a further data change on November 13 — two days after Nature added an Editor’s “note of concern” about the study.

    Eventually, Nature’s “note of concern” attached to Xiao’s 2020 study changed to a very lengthy correction in late 2021 that explained that data “were mislabelled and attributed incorrectly.” That correction also thanked Alina Chan of Harvard and the Broad Institute “for bringing the errors to our attention.” Chan later tweeted that Nature refused to publish her analysis of the viruses and merely folded her study into their correction.

    NIH coronavirus database becomes national news

    This U.S. Right to Know report was largely ignored, but last summer, coronavirus sequences at the NIH SRA became national news when Jesse Bloom, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, published a preprint on NIH sequences that Chinese researchers had deleted. As Bloom explained in an email to NIH leadership at the time, “[T]his can be a good opportunity for the NIH to take the lead by using its remarkable data archives to make progress in resolving some of the important questions about the virus’s origins.”

    The NIH would not disclose to reporters the names of Chinese researchers who requested sequence deletions, but the New York Times later identified one of the scientists as Ben Hu at Wuhan University.

    Empower Oversight referenced Kangpeng Xiao’s identity in federal court recently on July 11, when the nonprofit charged that the NIH was improperly redacting documents when responding to their FOIA requests. In one case, the NIH had provided Empower Oversight with an October 12, 2021, email from Jesse Bloom to the NIH discussing a scientist’s request to delete NIH SRA sequences. Citing Exemption 6, which covers privacy concerns, the NIH redacted both the names of the requestor and the NIH official that Bloom cited in his email

    Read the rest from Thacker here

    Paul has demanded the NIH answer the following questions:

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 19:30

  • A Culture Of Crime Complacency In Pritzker's Illinois
    A Culture Of Crime Complacency In Pritzker’s Illinois

    Authored by Mike Koolidge via RealClearPolitics.com,

    In the 2013 movie “The Purge,” crime was legalized for a 12-hour window every year, ostensibly to “purge” society of its worst elements. Murdering, thievery, grand theft auto, rape, drug trafficking, you name it, all allowed with zero consequences – but only for an annual 12-hour period. Effective Jan. 1, 2023, a version of the scenario depicted in the fictional dystopian film could become a full-time reality in Illinois if legislation, passed after the summer of George Floyd, is not repealed.

    Some background: On Jan. 13, 2021, during the post-election lame duck legislative session, a 764 page opus known as Illinois HB 3653, ironically called the “SAFE-T Act” (Safety, Accountability, Fairness, Equity – Today Act), was rushed through by Democrats in the state capitol. There was no mandate from the electorate. It barely had enough votes to pass, even in the extremely lopsided Democrat-majority Springfield legislature.

    “The law passed in the wee hours of the morning,” recalled Republican State Rep. Tony McCombie.

    “[The Democrats] cut off debate. They didn’t appear to have the votes as it took several minutes to browbeat their members to their switches [voting button] to call the final vote.”

    But it passed in both houses and was signed into law with great fanfare by Democrat Gov. JB Pritzker.

    The legislation is a veritable wish list for progressives opposed to the very idea of incarceration – or even effective policing.

    To start, criminal suspects arrested on charges ranging from petty theft to murder (yes, murder) will no longer have to post bail, because cash bail will go away entirely. Will judges be able to keep obviously dangerous defendants in jail? Only when, to quote the language in the legislation, “the defendant poses a real and present threat to a specific, identifiable person or persons, or has a high likelihood of flight.”

    That suggests that if you kill your wife, for instance, you can be let out of jail while you await trial, posting no bail, because, well, she’s now dead, and you don’t “pose a threat” to any other “specific” individual. If you are unsuccessful in your murder attempt and only maimed your wife, as she is still alive, yes, a judge can keep you in jail, but only because your wife survived your assault.

    To reiterate, crimes that harm “society at large” will not cut it, according to the language in the SAFE-T Act. As Ogle County State’s Attorney Mike Rock explains:

    “A serial drunk driver who repeatedly drives on our streets while impaired must be released because we cannot specifically identify the individuals they are putting at risk. The same applies to drug dealers, gun traffickers, felons in possession of guns, serial arsonists, and many other violent criminals.”

    This is not hyperbole. Even some Democrats are sounding the alarm. “If that bill [the SAFE-T Act] goes into effect … police officers’ hands will be tied,” warns Will County State’s Attorney James Glasgow, a Democrat. “What you see in Chicago, we’ll have here . It’s going to be literally the end of days … I’ve got 640 people in the Will County jail. All their bonds will be extinguished on January 1. And 60 are charged with murder. And many others with violent felonies.”

    The good news is that it’s not too late to do something about it.

    “You as the electorate, need to demand anybody running for election in November needs to vote to repeal this bill,” Glasgow continued.

    “It will destroy the state of Illinois. I don’t even understand the people who supported it, why they can’t realize that.”

    This is what happens when a legislative body dominated by one political party is combined with a severe anti-cop, soft-on-crime default position that has become orthodoxy on the left. It’s a toxic stew of bad ideas and bad judgment that at best breeds a culture of crime complacency, and at worst a clarion call for societal anarchy.

    “This law will continue to destroy the once beautiful and thriving city of Chicago,” said McCombie.

    “The crime rate will grow in the suburbs and eventually seep into our more rural areas, ultimately bringing Illinois’ complete destruction.”

    State’s attorneys must act, and demand that Springfield repeal the SAFE-T Act immediately. Every Democrat state representative and senator must swallow their pride and admit they made a terrible mistake when they passed this bill during the 2021 lame duck session. And more than anyone else, Gov. Pritzker, up for reelection this November and testing the 2024 presidential waters, needs to step up, be a leader, and fix this. Now.

    More and more Illinoisans are demanding it: A Facebook page calling for the repeal of Illinois HB 3653 has already gained over 51,000 members and is growing. If the SAFE-T Act is not repealed, Pritzker and everyone who made it law will have blood on their hands. And come this January in Illinois, the movie “The Purge” won’t feel like fiction if you live in our state.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 19:10

  • Taiwan Fires Warning Flares On Chinese Drone That Buzzed Airspace
    Taiwan Fires Warning Flares On Chinese Drone That Buzzed Airspace

    At a moment of boiling tensions surrounding Taiwan, its military says it chased away a Chinese drone by firing warning shots as a UAV buzzed a heavily fortified island that has long been under Taiwanese control.

    The Taiwanese Defense Ministry believes what was at first deemed an “unidentified drone” was possibly probing its Taiwan’s defenses as it “glanced by” Dongyin island, which lies near the Chinese coast but has been in Taiwan’s hands since 1949.

    China is believed to operate fleets of drones from its Shandong Aircraft Carrier.

    “The Dongyin command fired flares at the drone to warn it away, the ministry said, without identifying it further,” writes Reuters. “A senior official familiar with the security planning in the region told Reuters that it was a Chinese drone, likely one of the country’s new CSC-005 drones.”

    Though a relatively minor encounter, said to be the second such incident involving a Chinese drone this year, the engagement suggests the ease with which a small unplanned incident could trigger bigger escalation, even leading to a shooting war.

    Considered the front line of Taiwan’s defenses, Dongyin island is described as follows in Reuters:

    It is the northernmost territory Taiwan holds, sitting at the top end of the Taiwan Strait, a choke point through which at least part of any Chinese invading force would have to traverse.

    Military experts believe Dongyin’s forces are equipped with Taiwan’s self-made Hsiung Feng II anti-ship missile as well as Sky Bow II surface-to-air missiles.

    In recent years Chinese PLA jets have flown into or near Taiwan’s ‘Air Defense Identification Zone’ on an almost weekly basis, which Taipei sees as a threat. Taiwan typically scrambles fighters to warn off and ‘mirror’ PLA jets, however without any kind of firing incident.

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    This fresh encounter between Taiwan and PLA weaponry comes as the entirety of the democratic-run island of Taiwan is engaged in ‘invasion preparedness’ drills – an annual exercise – which has a civilian response as well as military components, including emergency alerts and evacuation simulations conducted in cities and towns.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 18:50

  • Manchin's 'Inflation Reduction Act' One Giant, Misnamed Nothingburger, Goldman Finds: "It Will Change Fiscal Impulse By Less Than 0.1% Of GDP"
    Manchin’s ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ One Giant, Misnamed Nothingburger, Goldman Finds: “It Will Change Fiscal Impulse By Less Than 0.1% Of GDP”

    While few have had a chance to read the details of the Manchin-Schumer so-called “Inflation Reduction Act” (where the only inflation reduction is in the title and nowhere else) especially those who have been championing it all day across various media outlets, Goldman’s chief political economist Alec Phillips spent the night digging into the nuances of the proposed bill and found … well… nothing.

    As Phillips writes, the fiscal deal that already looked likely to pass now looks likely to be a bit broader than expected: the potential Senate deal now includes a version of the corporate minimum tax the House passed late last year, as well as a package of energy provisions similar in size to the House-passed bill. However, and this is the punchline, the Goldman strategist finds that “the fiscal impact remains limited” and warns that “over the next few years, it looks unlikely that this bill would change the fiscal impulse by more than 0.1% of GDP, as new spending and new taxes roughly offset and, in any case, both are fairly small in absolute terms.”

    Goldman concludes that while the details are still apt to change – the tax increase might shrink even more – this version of the bill looks fairly likely to become law, although “the omission of any changes to state and local tax deductibility raises some questions about House passage.”

    Below we excerpt from the Goldman note (the full pdf available to pro subscribers)

    The fiscal deal that looked increasingly likely now also looks a bit broader than expected. In a surprising turn of events, Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced an agreement (summary here, text here) with Senator Manchin (D-W. Va.) on a somewhat broader fiscal package than we and most others had expected. Instead of limiting the package to Medicare drug pricing changes ($288bn/10yrs in savings) and two year extension of health insurance subsidies ($22bn/yr), the deal also includes $369bn/10yrs in energy and climate incentives and one additional year of health insurance subsidies, funded by a 15% minimum tax on corporate book income for companies with more than $100 million in domestic income/$1 billion in global income (raises $313bn/10yrs in tax revenue), and extending the minimum holding period for taxation of carried income at the long-term capital gains rate to 5 years from the time a fund acquired substantially all of its investments ($14bn/10yrs). In both cases, the tax increases would take effect from 2023.

    The net fiscal impact of these policies looks likely to be very modest, likely less than 0.1% of GDP for the next several years. Exhibit 1 provides a rough estimate, based on the cost estimates of the Senate drug pricing language released a few weeks ago, and estimates of the relevant tax provisions and energy provisions from the House-passed bill. While the final outcome is likely to differ in details from those provisions, the fiscal impact is likely to be similar.

    The bill is called the “Inflation Reduction Act of 2022” but the individual provisions it includes appear to be substantially the same as prior bills. In theory, the drug pricing provisions could impact the prices that Medicare-eligible consumers pay for drugs, but those changes would not take effect until 2026. Likewise, the renewable energy provisions are unlikely to have a near-term impact on energy–and in particular, gasoline–prices and are instead focused on medium term investment and production. We note that while the summary from Sen. Manchin’s office mentions energy permitting changes, it is unclear whether this “reconciliation” bill could include such regulatory changes, as those are generally precluded by Senate rules prohibiting non-fiscal matters from inclusion in reconciliation legislation.

    The legislation will probably still change. It seems likely that there will be some additional changes on the tax side. It is unclear whether the carried interest tax changes will pass as written, and there is a fair chance they could still be removed from the bill before passage. Additional carve-outs to the minimum tax proposal look likely, as various constituencies try to preserve the ability of corporations to take advantage of specific tax deductions and credits when companies pay the minimum tax.

    Passage looks likely, but not guaranteed. It is not yet clear whether virtually every Democrat, whose support will be needed to pass the bill in the House and Senate, will be willing to vote for this agreement. Our expectation is that they will, but there are still obstacles. The most obvious is the omission of any expansion of the state and local tax deduction, which some House Democrats have insisted be included in return for their support.

    More in the full note available to pro subscribers in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 18:41

  • FDA Warns Puberty-Blockers May Cause Vision-Loss In Children
    FDA Warns Puberty-Blockers May Cause Vision-Loss In Children

    Authored by Mimi Ngyuen Ly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recently added a warning to the labeling of gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonists—also referred to by many as puberty blockers—saying the drugs may cause a series of symptoms in children that include headaches, pressure buildup around the brain, and vision loss.

    Signage is seen outside of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) headquarters in White Oak, Md., on Aug. 29, 2020. (Andrew Kelly/Reuters)

    The warning, announced by the agency on July 1, says there is a risk of pseudotumor cerebri in children who take GnRH agonists.

    Pseudotumor cerebri, or idiopathic intracranial hypertension, is when the fluid around the brain and spinal cord builds up in the skull for no obvious reason, causing high pressure that affects the brain the nerve in the back of the eye, the optic nerve.

    “The new warning includes recommendations to monitor patients taking GnRH agonists for signs and symptoms of pseudotumor cerebri, including headache, papilledema, blurred or loss of vision, diplopia, pain behind the eye or pain with eye movement, tinnitus, dizziness and nausea,” the FDA announced.

    GnRH agonists stop the production of the hormones estrogen and progesterone that are involved in the physical changes a person undergoes during puberty. They are FDA-approved for the treatment of central precocious puberty—a condition where children experience premature puberty: in girls, this is before age 8, and in boys, before age 9.

    GnRH agonists are also used to treat other conditions such as endometriosis, uterine fibroids, precocious puberty, and infertility.

    The class of drugs is also being used off-label by some medical practitioners who prescribe them to children who experience gender dysphoria. The drugs can only be prescribed to children under 18 if the parents or guardians consent to the approach. Off-label means that GnRH agonists have not been approved by the FDA for this purpose.

    GnRH agonists products include Lupron Depot-Ped (leuprolide acetate), Fensolvi (leuprolide acetate), Synarel (nafarelin), Supprelin LA (histrelin), and Triptodur (triptorelin).

    ‘Plausible Association’

    The FDA had identified six cases that “supported a plausible association between GnRH agonist use and pseudotumor cerebri,” it said. The cases were identified via a risk assessment that included reviewing safety data submitted by GnRH agonists manufacturers, searching the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System, and conducting a literature search.

    “Six cases were identified that supported a plausible association between GnRH agonist use and pseudotumor cerebri. All six cases were reported in birth-assigned females ages 5 to 12 years,” the FDA stated.

    Five were undergoing treatment for central precocious puberty and one for transgender care,” the agency said. “The onset of pseudotumor cerebri symptoms ranged from three to 240 days after GnRH agonist initiation.”

    Of the six cases, five experienced visual disturbances, five experienced headache or vomiting, three had papilledema (swelling of the optic nerve), one had blood pressure increase, and one had weakness in a nerve responsible for eye movement.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 18:30

  • "Tipping Point": DC Mayor Calls For National Guard To 'Indefinitely' Help With Bussed-In Migrants
    “Tipping Point”: DC Mayor Calls For National Guard To ‘Indefinitely’ Help With Bussed-In Migrants

    With busloads of migrants arriving from Texas to the nation’s capital, DC has reportedly reached a “tipping point” after just 4,000 of them, causing Mayor Muriel Bowser to request that the DC National Guard be activated “indefinitely” to help with the situation, NBC4‘s Mark Segraves reports.

    What’s more, she wants to use the DC Armory as a processing center.

    Bowser’s request comes a week after Fox5 reported that the migrants were “overwhelming aid group” that are trying to help process the influx. 

    Groups like the Migrant Solidarity Network are there to welcome the buses and assist the migrants in getting to their destinations but Barnard reports the groups are receiving little to no assistance from local and federal government.

    Barnard says some of the migrants he spoke with are hoping to get to other destinations. Some are hoping to stay in D.C. and find works. Others are trying to get back to Texas.

    In April, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) announced that the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) would provide charter buses or flights to transport illegal immigrants released into the US by the feds, to D.C.

    Abbott’s order came in response to the lifting of Title 42 by the Biden administration (which was subsequently blocked by a Louisiana judge, which the Biden admin has appealed) – a CDC order that was invoked in March 2020 under President Donald Trump to minimize the spread of COVID-19 by ensuring that only essential travel occurred at U.S. borders.

    It directed that illegal immigrants could be quickly expelled back into Mexico as a pandemic precaution, rather than be processed under Title 8 immigration law, which is a much more protracted process inside the United States.

    Meanwhile, two weeks ago House Democrats adopted an amendment giving Bowser authority over the city’s national guard.

    As Trump adviser Stephen Miller said in response to the report, “The “tipping point” for the country was Biden opening our borders to *millions* of illegal aliens from every corner, and almost every county, on planet earth.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 18:10

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 28th July 2022

  • Russia Threatens Western Media Crackdown After EU Court Upholds RT Ban
    Russia Threatens Western Media Crackdown After EU Court Upholds RT Ban

    Starting in March the European Union imposed a ban on Russia’s two major international state-funded broadcasters RT and Sputnik as part of what was then the 6th round of anti-Russia sanctions. Later in May, the EU added to its growing Russian media blacklist the broadcasters RTR Planeta, Russia 24 and TV Centre. 

    In rolling out the ban months ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described of the crackdown, “We are banning three big Russian state-owned broadcasters from our airwaves. They will not be allowed to distribute their content anymore in the EU, in whatever shape or form, be it on cable, via satellite, on the internet or via smartphone apps.” She said, “We have identified these TV channels as mouthpieces, that amplify [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s lies and propaganda aggressively. We should not give them a stage anymore to spread these lies.”

    In March, RT America shut down its broadcast studio in Washington D.C. as US Congress moved to de-platform Russian state media, which also resulted even in its YouTube channel being blocked around the world (with Sputnik suffering the same fate). A majority of Western countries have at this point permanently blocked RT and Sputnik.

    On Wednesday, the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg threw out an appeal which RT filed arguing that the ban should be lifted on free press and speech grounds. The appeal was made by RT France:

    The General Court dismisses as unfounded the complaint alleging a lack of competence on the part of the Council.

    The EU authorities were therefore not required to hear RT France prior to the decision temporarily to prohibit it from any form of content broadcasting. Consequently, the Court states that there has been no infringement of RT France’s right to be heard.

    As regards the complaint alleging that the statement of reasons for the contested acts is insufficient with regard to RT France, the General Court points out that that statement can be understood and is sufficiently precise,

    The condition that the limitations on the freedom of expression must be laid down by law is satisfied. The General Court adds that the nature and extent of the temporary prohibition at issue comply with the essential content of the freedom of expression and do not call that particular freedom into question.

    But the Kremlin has blasted the politicized nature of the court’s rejection of the appeal, and has vowed to apply similar restrictions on Western media outlets operating in Russia. Broadly, EU officials have argued that Russian state-linked sources haven’t been “impartial” in reporting the war in Ukraine and thus are “disinformation”.

    “Of course, we will take similar measures of pressure on Western media that operate in our country,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, as cited in AFP. Peskov further charged Europe with failing to uphold its own values in the case of RT:

    “We will also not let them work in our country,” he said, describing the Kremlin’s reaction to the ban as “extremely negative.”

    “Essentially, RT has been blocked and cannot operate in Europe,” Peskov said. “Europeans are trampling on their own ideals.”

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    The ongoing past months of tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions between Moscow and the West could now morph into something dangerously parallel when it comes to the press and foreign correspondents, whether in Russia or in Europe.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 02:45

  • EU Prepares Public For Winter Gas Siege
    EU Prepares Public For Winter Gas Siege

    By John Kemp, senior market analyst

    European Union policymakers have started to prepare the public for siege conditions this winter if gas supplies from Russia are completely cut, an effort to demonstrate diplomatic resolve as well as avoid panic later in the year.

    In recent weeks, officials from Germany and other EU member states have begun to talk openly and urgently about the need for immediate reductions in consumption in advance of the peak winter heating season.

    They have also started to plan publicly for compulsory allocation, including rationing and prioritization among industrial users, as well as sharing among member states in the event there is not enough gas to supply everyone.

    The stated reason is to accelerate the accumulation of inventories over the remainder of the summer to ensure European countries enter the winter with the highest possible inventories.

    In reality, inventories are rising relatively rapidly and are already above the long-term seasonal average in most member states and across the region as a whole.

    Inventories across the EU and the United Kingdom (EU28) stood at 751 terawatt-hours (TWh) on July 24 compared with a ten-year seasonal average of 698 TWh.

    EU28 stocks were rising at a rate of 5.11 TWh per day in the seven days to July 24 compared with a ten-year seasonal average of 4.61 TWh.

    In Germany, the largest stock holder, inventories of 161 TWh were above the long-term average of 145 TWh, and rising at 0.6 TWh per day, compared with a long-term average of 0.72 TWh per day.

    On current trends, the European Union as a whole, and Germany in particular, are already likely to enter the winter with above average levels of gas in storage.

    The problem is that it will not be enough if pipeline supplies from Russia are cut completely.

    EU storage is designed to cope with seasonal swings in consumption not to withstand a war-like strategic blockade.

    EU storage sites are currently filled to 67% of their maximum capacity, including 67% in Germany, 71% in Italy and 76% in France.

    But current storage is equivalent to just 18% of annual consumption for the European Union as a whole, including 16% in Germany, 18% in Italy and 21% in France.

    Even if storage sites can be filled to 90% or more of their maximum, inventories cannot withstand semi-blockade conditions for more than a few months without being depleted to critically low levels or exhausted completely.  And if storage lasts through the winter of 2022/23 it would still need to be rebuilt before the winter of 2023/24, which would be extremely difficult under siege conditions.

    Therefore, the unstated reason for the recent talk about consumption cuts and possible rationing is that large-scale and sustained demand reductions are the only way to withstand a possible gas siege. 

    Public planning for reduced consumption and compulsory allocation is intended to signal resolve and deter Russia from attempting a siege in the first place.

    In the event one occurs anyway, it is intended to harden public opinion for the privations ahead, including some physical discomfort, significantly higher utility bills, and a severe economic contraction.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/28/2022 – 02:00

  • Victor Davis Hanson: How To Erode The World's Greatest Military
    Victor Davis Hanson: How To Erode The World’s Greatest Military

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmGreatness.com,

    Alienating half the country is not a wise strategy of military recruitment…

    The U.S. Army has met only 40 percent of its 2022 recruiting goals.  

    In fact, all branches of the military are facing historic resistance to their current recruiting efforts. If some solution is not found quickly, the armed forces will radically shrink or be forced to lower standards—or both.  

    Such a crisis occurs importunely as an aggressive Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea believe the Biden Administration and the Pentagon have lost traditional U.S. deterrence.  

    That pessimistic view abroad unfortunately is now shared by many Americans at home. In 2021, the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute conducted its periodic poll of attitudes toward the U.S. military. The result was astonishing. Currently, only 45 percent of Americans polled expressed a great deal of trust in their armed forces. Confidence had dived 25 points since an early 2018 poll. 

    Military officials cite both the usual and a new array of challenges in finding suitable young soldiers—drug use, gang affiliation, physical and mental incapacities, and the dislocations arising from the COVID pandemic and vaccination mandates. But they are too quiet about why such supposedly longer-term obstacles suddenly coalesced in 2022—as if their own leadership and policies have had no effect in discouraging tens of thousands of young men and women to join them. 

    The Greatest Skedaddle in Modern American History 

    A year ago, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley were assuring the country not to worry over Joe Biden’s strange ideas of abruptly pulling out all U.S. troops from Afghanistan. The radical step was purportedly to coincide with Biden’s planned 20-year celebratory event marking his role in ensuring an iconic end of the war on terror that began on September 11, 2001.  

    What followed was the worst U.S. military humiliation since Pearl Harbor.  

    U.S. forces abandoned hundreds if not thousands of American contractors and loyal Afghan employees, a $1 billion embassy, a huge $300 million refitted air base, and reportedly somewhere between $60-80 billion in military equipment and infrastructure. That sum was nearly double all the current military assistance sent to Ukraine.  

    Thirteen Americans were murdered by terrorists during the chaotic flight. In response, the United States mistakenly blew up 10 innocent Afghans after misidentifying them as ISIS terrorists. The horrific scenes at the Kabul airport surpassed the 1975 catastrophic ending of the Vietnam War on the U.S. embassy roof.  

    The global aftermath was eerie. Russia in a few months thereafter invaded Ukraine. Iran proudly announced it would soon have enough fissionable material to make a nuclear weapon. North Korea resumed its provocative missile launches. China openly talked of storming Taiwan.  

    The common denominator was the global perception that any president and military responsible for such colossal, televised incompetence would or could neither deter enemy aggression nor protect allied interests.  

    In response, widely reported furor arose among the ranks of some American officers and the enlisted. Mid-level officers especially claimed they were ignored after warning that the abrupt withdrawal was suicidal, that Pentagon grandees were lying about the dire facts on the grounds in efforts to lubricate the Biden agenda, and that thousands of Americans and loyal Afghans would be cast adrift, along with our NATO allies.

    The shame of defeat and the cloud of incompetence from Afghanistan have continued to harm recruitment efforts of the military. 

    The White Rage Unicorn 

    About a year ago Austin and Chairman Milley took time out from assuring Americans that all would be well in Kabul, to testify before Congress about the Pentagon’s effort to address “white rage” in the six-month aftermath of the January 6 riot.  

    Both were also asked to explain why the armed services were recommending soldiers read inter alia the often-discredited “antiracist” theories of Ibram X. Kendi. His polarizing doctrine asserts that the entire U.S. system of government, all social and political life, and our very culture are racist to core. As a result, Kendi’s solution requires radical and overt racial preferencing and discrimination supposedly to fight such an insidious system.  

    Yet what was startling about the two officials’ testimonies was the utter lack of data showing any general trends that white soldiers were any more or less likely to practice racial discrimination or chauvinism than other ethnic and racial groups in the military. An array of officers defended various workshops and course work at the military academies purporting that white rage is an existential problem in the military.  

    The subtext of the entire testimony debacle was that the two titular heads of the military wished to reassure progressive majorities in the U.S. Congress that they were sympathetic to the woke movement and, along with other high-ranking officers, wanted publicly to virtue signal to that effect.  

    In their emphasis on diversity, equity, and inclusion—the latest euphemisms for using race and gender quotas to assure proportional or even reparatory representation—throughout the officer corps, Austin and Milley seemed entirely oblivious that the U.S. Army depends on generations of family loyalty to the armed forces. Such heritage and legacy considerations have ensured a steady stream of recruits for front-line combat units.  

    In other words, over generations the same families, drawn from mostly middle-class cohorts, have served disproportionately in combat units in Vietnam, the various Iraq conflicts, and Afghanistan. Indeed, if the military was consistent in its racial fixations, it might have noted that white males—the purported targets of the Austin and Milley efforts to ferret out supposed white rage cells— died in three wars at roughly twice their numbers in the general population.

    Current analysis of the recruiting crisis reveals what almost any observer would have predicted a year earlier from the haughty virtue signaling of Austin and Milley: traditional military families are not sending their sons and daughters into the ranks. It is not the danger of combat or the rigor of military life that families fear, but the suspicion their offspring will be targeted for ideological indoctrination and coercion that is either extraneous or antithetical to military efficacy. 

    Traditionally, 40 percent of new recruits cite the military service of their parents—not to mention their veteran grandparents. Currently only 13 percent of new recruits arrive from such military families. Yet Austin and Milley made no connection between the Pentagon fixations on current hot-button social issues and its apparent inability to secure an honorable and safe withdrawal from Afghanistan. 

    The Weaponization of the Pentagon 

    There is a general perception in and outside the military that the top ranks of the services are increasingly politicized. High profile officers have used the great authority, influence, and power of the Pentagon in polarizing progressive advocacy roles from transgenderism to abortion—to the detriment of military efficacy and lethality. Much of unhappiness with the military arises partly from the woke hysteria, the institutional disdain for Donald Trump and his response to it, and the perceived rewards for those retired military lobbyists and corporate board members who reflect a new woke creed.   

    The nadir in politicization came in 2021 when it was revealed that Milley secretly contacted his Chinese communist counterpart during the height of the 2020 presidential election. Milley claimed he believed that his own commander-in-chief, Trump, was unstable. And so, after his layman’s diagnosis, he wished to assure the People’s Liberation Army’s ranking officer that he would tip the Chinese off about any thought of a preemptive American strike on China. Milley also ordered his own subordinate theater officers to report to him first should Trump contemplate any nuclear action against China. 

    Upon public disclosure of those facts, Milley should have been summarily fired. By law, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs is an advisory official only. The position enjoys no operational command. 

    Milley violated the chain of command by usurping theater authority that was not his. Nor can a military long exist, if its iconic leader freelances in contacting enemy counterparts without the knowledge of the commander-in-chief.  

    Can we imagine the outrage that would now ensue, if Milley should once again warn his Chinese counterpart that another president, Joe Biden, in the chairman’s own opinion, suffers bouts of cognitive debility and early onset senility, forcing Milley to take matters in his own hands? Yet such freelancing insubordination is now Milley’s legacy.  

    In fact, some in the retired U.S. military for over four years systematically violated the Uniform Code of Military Justice, sometimes to the extent of engaging in a sort of coup porn. 

    In a Washington Post op-ed, retired generals Paul Eaton, Antonio Taguba, and Steven Anderson melodramatically and without evidence warned the nation of a supposedly impending coup should their commander-in-chief Donald Trump be elected again in 2024. 

    In August 2020, two retired officers John Nagl and Paul Yingling, wrote an op-ed urging Milley to simply remove Trump from office should Milley himself feel such a move was necessary after a disputed election. That was a de facto call for a possible coup d’état. But it was not unique.

    Earlier, civilian Rosa Brooks, a former Obama-era Pentagon legal official, published an inflammatory call to arms in Foreign Policy. She discussed three major possible avenues to remove newly inaugurated Donald Trump from the presidency. One of her alternatives was a military coup.  

    For the entire Trump presidency, retired four-star generals and admirals had routinely smeared their commander-in-chief as a veritable Nazi, a Mussolini-like figure, an abject liar, and comparable in his policies to the architects of the Nazi death camps. One retired admiral called for the removal of Trump “the sooner, the better” as if regularly scheduled elections were insufficient remedies. 

    Aside from clear violations of Article 88 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice, these officers were oblivious that nearly half the country supported the president and his policies. And so, millions of people would logically conclude that the highest-ranking retired officers, and by extension the culture of the current military, had nothing but contempt for their own views and voting decisions. Alienating nearly half the country is not a wise strategy of military recruitment.

    Nor is hypocrisy. The perceptions in the ranks have grown that applications of the law are asymmetrical and politically warped. Article 88, applicable to retired generals and admirals, prohibits military officers from using contemptuous words about top civilian elected and appointed officials. It says nothing about the spouses of said officials.

    None of the retired officers who in the media libeled their commander-in-chief from 2017-2021 faced any consequences—reprimands, court martials, or sanctions from doing business with the Pentagon from their corporate billets. Yet one recently did.  

    The U.S. Army just fired retired consultant Lt. Gen. Gary Volesky from a contractual position with the Pentagon because he poked fun at First Lady Jill Biden. Note that Volesky did not suggest Jill or Joe Biden was a Nazi, a fascist, or liar —much less that her husband should be removed from office “the sooner, the better.” Retired General Volesky’s crime was mocking Jill Biden’s purported hypocrisy on the recent overturn of Roe v. Wade

    Unfortunately, the crisis in the U.S. military transcends even the Afghanistan misadventure, unsupported accusations against an entire demographic, the erosion of military familial loyalty, freelancing politicized officers, and asymmetrical applications of laws and codes. 

    Fairly or not, the perception among the public and our enemies is that the U.S. military has become a political entity with an agenda that transcends defending the U.S. and its interests. 

    Its perceived main agenda by half the country is progressive social justice, administered top-down from a cadre of elites who can implement controversial policies through the chain of command without the messy work of the Congress—to the delight of the Pentagon’s newfound sunshine friends on the woke Left. 

    Such military social engineers unfortunately appear to share contempt for a large group of Americans who voted for a president they despised. And this is a fact warmly welcomed by our worst enemies abroad.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 23:35

  • "Look Almost Human-Made": NOAA Finds Mysterious Lines Of Holes On Mid-Atlantic Floor
    “Look Almost Human-Made”: NOAA Finds Mysterious Lines Of Holes On Mid-Atlantic Floor

    NOAA revealed the discovery of mysterious holes punched in the ocean floor while on a dive nearly two miles deep in the Mid-Atlantic. 

    On Saturday, NOAA’s Okeanos Explorer, a converted naval ship turned exploratory vessel, deployed a submersible vessel to observe the summit of an underwater volcano north of the Azores, an autonomous region of Portugal.

    During the survey, at the depths of 1.7 miles, the remotely controlled submersible vessel piloted by the NOAA Ocean Exploration crew found “sublinear sets of holes in the sediment,” an NOAA Facebook post read. 

    “These holes have been previously reported from the region, but their origin remains a mystery. While they look almost human-made, the little piles of sediment around the holes make them seem like they were excavated by…something,” NOAA continued. 

    NOAA posted two photos of the linear holes that appear out of place on the flat sandy surface. 

    The agency responsible for monitoring the climate and environment asked the public to offer theories about what could’ve possibly formed the linear lines. 

    One of the most exciting comments besides “impact craters,” “swordfish sharpening its bill,” “water from underground springs,” “gas methane vents,” and “spine of a whale or something else that was buried,” was one commenter who said: “this is the work of an ancient civilization, what some refer to as a breakaway-civilization.” 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 23:15

  • Fauci, Birx, & The Small-Print That Destroyed America
    Fauci, Birx, & The Small-Print That Destroyed America

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

    In a maddening interview yesterday, Anthony Fauci performed his usual song and dance when faced with even the most mild questioning. He stonewalled in his trademarked way.

    He spoke in long, drawn-out sentences, emphasizing the word consonants, punctuated by pauses and silences that convey the sense of precision without the reality. He strung together terms that seem vaguely scientific which intimidated his interviewers into an overly cautious pose.

    “Oh wow, I’m interviewing a very powerful person,” the interviewer thinks, “so I had better not say anything wrong!”

    He’s been pulling this trick for 40 years. He is very good at it.

    In this interview, several messages stands out: 1) in retrospect, we should have locked down even more, 2) he never pushed lockdowns; he was only passing on CDC guidance, and 3) he is utterly and completely blameless for all things, particularly in funding gain-of-function research which, in any case, is not responsible for the creation of the virus in Wuhan.

    The first part is startling because many of us have had the sense that lockdowns are in disrepute. Far from it: Fauci’s message is that next time, the lockdowns will be harder and longer. And there certainly will be more. The third part I feel sure will be revealed in time. The fear that the virus escaped from the lab is likely what drove the lockdowns agenda.

    What intrigues me the most is the second part, the claim that he never ordered lockdowns. This was the CDC and he only served as messenger. Everyone else is to blame for anything that went wrong.

    In a second interview the same day, Fauci says this explicitly: “All I have ever done, if you go back and look at everything I’ve ever done, was to recommend common-sense, good CDC-recommended public health policies that have saved millions of lives. If you want to investigate me for that, go ahead.”

    I’m going back to the March 16, 2020, press conference at which Fauci, Deborah Birx, and Donald Trump are announcing a fundamental change of life in the United States, one that would disregard all normal rights and liberties. It’s not entirely clear, to me in any case, that Trump knew what was happening even then. He had a sense that he was doing something to stop the spread but he didn’t know entirely what.

    This has always puzzled me. It’s one thing for him to be hornswoggled into greenlighting the destruction of the economy that was booming and roaring under his administration. That’s bad enough. But to be confused even about the details of what he was ordering that day is next-level stuff.

    The following exchange occurred that day. Trump is asked whether restaurants and other venues should close. Trump responds: “Right now we don’t have an order one way or the other. We don’t have an order, but I think it’s probably better that you don’t [go to restaurants].”

    From that, I gather that Trump believed that he was not forcing anything on anyone.

    A reporter asks for a clarification: “Telling people to avoid restaurants and bars is a different thing than saying that bars and restaurants should shut down over the next 15 days. So why was it seen as being imprudent or not necessarily to take that additional step offered at additional guidance?”

    At this point, Trump demurs and turns over the microphone to Deborah Birx, who must not have been paying attention and says something vague about the virus living on hard surfaces.

    At this point, Fauci interrupts and says: “I just want, there’s an answer to this.”

    Fauci says the following: “The small print here. It’s really small print. ‘In states with evidence of community transmission, bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms and other indoor and outdoor venues where groups of people congregate should be closed.’”

    This was obviously a very startling thing to say—it means the end of regular life—but it is not clear that Trump was paying attention. A reporter asked a follow-up question. “So Mr. President, are you telling governors in those states then to close all their restaurants and their bars?”

    Trump says: “Well we haven’t said that yet … we’re recommending things. No, we haven’t gone to that step yet. That could happen, but we haven’t gone there yet.”

    I take from this exchange that Trump did not believe that he was calling for lockdowns. However, he believed that he might. And yet Fauci himself had just read from the CDC guidelines that called for exactly that.

    Curious, I looked up the guidelines to which Fauci referred. It is a two-page PDF that was sent all over the country, the one labeled “15 Days to Flatten the Curve.”

    They are here reproduced in graphic form:

    The only part that truly matters is the section with a black background with white print, the part that looks like boilerplate fluff. It was not. It was the scraping of freedom itself.

    As he demonstrated at the press conference, Fauci knew this fine print was there. He might even have been the one to make sure it was there and that it was too small for Trump to read. No question that Trump had no idea that it was there. He makes clear in the press conference that he didn’t know it was there. Even after Fauci highlighted its existence, Trump remained oblivious.

    What does the fine print say? It’s the full loaf: lockdown.

    “School operations can accelerate the spread of the coronavirus. Governors of states with evidence of community transmission should close schools in affected and surrounding areas. Governors should close schools in communities that are near areas of community transmission, even if those areas are in neighboring states. In addition, state and local officials should close schools where coronavirus has been identified in the population associated with the school. States and localities that close schools need to address childcare needs of critical responders, as well as the nutritional needs of children.”

    “Older people are particularly at risk from the coronavirus. All states should follow Federal guidance and halt social visits to nursing homes and retirement and long-term care facilities.”

    “In states with evidence of community transmission, bars, restaurants, food courts, gyms, and other indoor and outdoor venues where groups of people congregate should be closed.”

    Consider the implications of this. Your mother is in the nursing home that you are paying for. But now you are even banned by the government from visiting. It’s an utterly shocking violation of human rights. You are deploying the state to separate families, as in a dystopian novel. It’s a death sentence.

    As for schools, astounding. There was never any evidence that schools spread death and, in any case, we already knew that the risk of COVID to kids is near zero. Sweden never closed schools and not a single death resulted. And yet in the United States, the kids were denied education and likely traumatized for life.

    As for the last sentence banning all gatherings—sports, weddings, funerals, gyms, malls—and completely wrecking all enterprise, this is an edict worthy of history’s most horrible despots in the annals of history.

    And it was all buried right there in tiny print, so small the president of the United States didn’t even read it. What’s more, no one in his inner circle at the time read it. Surely, Fauci and Birx knew it was there. Any reporter in the room could have read it. It was only a few sentences but they overrode the U.S. Constitution, all American law, plus 500 years of progress in rights and liberties. And it came to America in small print!

    What happened then? State health departments took the two-pager and rendered the small print into larger print. Here is a screen shot of the order from the state of Georgia.

    The small print quickly became the large print that transformed life for everyone. You think there was no plot here? That this was just some mistake that somehow caused the end of America to be buried in the fine print? Wise up. This is a level of malice that is truly boundless.

    As for Deborah Birx, she admits later in her book that the idea of 15 Days was always a trick. “No sooner had we convinced the Trump administration to implement our version of a two-week shutdown than I was trying to figure out how to extend it,” she admits.

    This was how the chaos in American life began: in small print. Very quickly, this small print was extended to the entire world. And then extended to two years. And now we face a devastating economic, cultural, and political crisis. The population is demoralized and hope is nearly lost.

    Who to blame? Anthony Fauci’s fingerprints are all over this sadistic caper, but he denies having anything to do with it.

    It’s our fault, he says: We didn’t read the fine print.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 22:55

  • Pentagon Approves Sending Wounded Ukrainian Troops To US Military Hospital In Germany
    Pentagon Approves Sending Wounded Ukrainian Troops To US Military Hospital In Germany

    The Pentagon has already been running programs to train Ukrainian soldiers on how to operate US-supplied long-range rocket systems, namely the HIMARS, in neighboring countries like Poland. Currently, the administration is mulling training pilots too, with the House having recently set aside the funds to do it, pending an internal White House debate over providing US jets (or possibly allied jets).

    At a moment the US military’s involvement in the Ukraine war continues sliding from ‘indirect’ to potentially more direct, the Pentagon announced Tuesday that the US will begin treating wounded Ukrainian troops at an American military hospital in Germany.

    Image: US Army

    Germany is one of the multiple locations in Europe that US soldiers are currently training Ukrainian forces. As for medical aid, there’s long been speculation that the US Army could already be providing assistance in this area in Poland.

    But now the biggest US military hospital outside the continental United States will host wounded Ukrainian troops:

    Ukrainian troops would be treated at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center if needed, the official said.

    Adjacent to the Ramstein Air Base southwest of Frankfurt, it is the largest U.S. military hospital outside the continental United States.

    It’s widely believed that Ukraine’s forces have suffered immense losses after six months of the Russian invasion, but no one knows precisely how many dead and wounded, given Ukraine’s defense ministry won’t publish the information on fears that it could be a boost to “Kremlin propaganda”.

    However, within the past two months Kiev officials have belatedly acknowledged losing “up to 200 troops a day” due to the “complete lack of parity” between the Russian and Ukrainian militaries. 

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Pentagon leadership has meanwhile denied reports that hospital care to wounded Ukrainian troops had already been underway in Germany:

    However, Landstuhl has not yet received Ukrainian service members for medical care yet. An official from US European Command told CNN, “We have not treated any Ukraine troops at Landstuhl”. As per the report, the official said that the purpose of the memo was to remove any red tape that would hinder the process of treating Ukrainian soldiers if and when the need arose. 

    US Army’s Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, file image

    Moscow will likely see this as yet another sign of growing Pentagon involvement in the Ukraine conflict, which US commanders have still refused to acknowledge as a “proxy war”. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 22:35

  • Does The Biden Administration Emulate The CCP's Methods?
    Does The Biden Administration Emulate The CCP’s Methods?

    Op-ed authored by Stu Cvrk via The Epoch Times,

    In its hybrid war against the United States, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been pursuing a number of intertwined goals aimed at world economic dominance in all spheres: trade, policy, legal, technology, etc. For it is economic dominance that undergirds geopolitical and military dominance, as well as its penultimate goal: world leadership in all human endeavors.

    A view of the U.S. Capitol Dome in Washington on June 21, 2022. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

    In one of the many successful campaigns of that ongoing multi-front hybrid war against its main adversary, the CCP has corrupted some members of the U.S. political class. The corruption began immediately after Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger “opened China” in 1972 (Kissinger continues to speak of appeasing China nearly 50 years later).

    The rampant corruption is intertwined with bought-and-paid-for Chinese sycophancy, outright admiration of the communist regime in Beijing, and the mirroring of some of its authoritarian policies by the Biden administration.

    Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Vice Premier Liu He (L) attend a group photo session with former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (R), and members of a delegation from the 2019 New Economy Forum before a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Nov. 22, 2019. (Jason Lee/Pool/Getty Images)

    Here are some policies pursued by Democrats that essentially implement “Chinese-style authoritarianism with American characteristics.”

    Great Firewall Versus Big Tech

    The Great Firewall (also known as the “Golden Shield”) is the Beijing regime’s internet censorship and surveillance system. Its goal is to maintain ideological control of Chinese citizens by restricting their access to “corrupting foreign influences.” Moreover, the system facilitates the monitoring of individual communications to crush political dissent.

    The Democratic Party has increasingly—through persuasion, corruption, and coercion—exploited Big Tech to convey Democrat narratives and suppress the messages of the Democrats’ political enemies. Twitter, Facebook, Google, YouTube, and many others are more than just Democrat-friendly; they are important elements of the Democratic Party’s ongoing campaign to suppress dissent and demonize their political opponents.

    Social Credit Systems

    The ostensible goal of China’s evolving social credit system is to enable reporting on the “trustworthiness” of individuals, corporations, and government entities across China—with trustworthiness, of course, being arbitrarily defined by the CCP.

    China’s State Council announced in 2014 that a social credit system “is an important method to perfect the Socialist market economy system, accelerating and innovating social governance, and it has an important significance for strengthening the sincerity consciousness of the members of society.”

    Left unsaid is the punishment for those deemed by the state to have exhibited “insincere consciousness.” Examples of infractions punished by Chinese authorities include “bad driving, smoking in non-smoking zones, buying too many video games, and posting fake news online, specifically about terrorist attacks or airport security,” according to Insider.

    Also left unsaid is that the social credit system can be extended in multiple dimensions, including monitoring and suppressing “prohibited” political speech or implementing travel controls through vaccine passports.

    People check on travel packages offered by travel agencies during the Guangzhou International Travel Fair in Guangzhou in south China’s Guangdong Province on March 3, 2018. Travelers in China were blocked from buying plane tickets 17.5 million times in 2018 as a penalty for failing to pay fines or other offenses. The Chinese regime reported on penalties imposed under a controversial “social credit” system. (Chinatopix via AP)

    It is no secret that Democrats are enamored of the CCP’s social credit system, as they envision it as a powerful political control mechanism that could be wielded in America to monitor and control behavior based on Democrat priorities and objectives.

    As reported here, congressional Democrats are considering an overhaul of the U.S. credit reporting system by implementing the Comprehensive CREDIT Act and the Protecting Your Credit Score Act of 2021, which would result in “a new system—similar to that of China.”

    And the CCP would doubtless be more than willing to sell the Democrats the social credit system information technology components that underpin the Chinese system.

    Masks, Social Distancing, and Lockdowns

    These COVID-19 response measures, which were previously foreign to most Americans, originated in China and are components of China’s draconian and unscientific “zero-COVID” policy. Democrat governors (and others) have been happy to force these on Americans while ignoring the lack of any proof whatsoever that masks are effective (150 comparative studies reported here) and also the economic and personal damage wrought by the lockdowns.

    However, constitutional freedoms are the bane of authoritarians—at least in the United States. It took nearly two years for the New York state supreme court to determine that the statewide mask mandate was unconstitutional. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden just extended the COVID emergency.

    Vaccination Certificates

    A key feature of Beijing’s “zero-COVID” policy is the use of “vaccination certificates,” which are used in the social credit system to control the access and travel of all Chinese citizens.

    Rasmussen polling in January showed that “a majority of Democrats embrace restrictive policies, including punitive measures against those who haven’t gotten the COVID-19 vaccine.” This has manifested in congressional Democrats and the Biden administration continuing to “discuss” the use of vaccine passports and the implementation of vaccine standards.

    Doses of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine and vaccination record cards for children under 5 at UW Medical Center – Roosevelt in Seattle, Wash., on June 21, 2022. (David Ryder/Getty Images)

    Media Narratives and Control

    Chinese state-run media parrot the prevailing CCP narratives pronounced by Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The messages are uniform and relentless, especially the repetition of Chinese communist euphemisms such as democracy with Chinese characteristics, market communism, closed-off management (in referring to COVID lockdowns, believe it or not), the indivisibility of security (what in the world does that mean?), and content moderation (censorship).

    However, while carefully watching China’s media operations, the Democrat-media complex does not take a backseat to the Chinese communists in terms of controlling media narratives in the United States. Here are some examples: calling claims of 2020 election fraud “baseless” despite numerous reports exposing new information, characterizing unarmed Jan. 6 protesters as “insurrectionists,” pushing Marxist critical race theory and diversity-equity-inclusion policies on Americans, and advocating LGBTQI lifestyles. The minions at China Daily and Xinhua must be smiling.

    Concluding Thoughts

    The above parallels did not happen by accident. The CCP got what they paid for, including through the actions of the “united front,” which is one of Mao Zedong’s “three magic weapons (the other two being party-building and armed struggle).

    Initially, the United Front Work Department (UFWD) was focused domestically on establishing and strengthening CCP control over all Chinese citizens. Its original responsibility, as noted here, was “to rally social groups and individuals to support the Chinese Communist Party and its objectives [f]rom the party’s Politburo Standing Committee down to its grassroots committees, united front work involves thousands of members, social organizations, and fronts.” This was the CCP’s de facto social credit enforcement system before the internet.

    The UFWD’s mission was expanded by Xi Jinping in 2015, as described here, to include foreign objectives such as “the co-optation of elites, information management, persuasion, and accessing strategic information and resources” with the express purpose of “influenc[ing] the decision-making of foreign governments and societies in China’s favor.”

    What could be more favorable to the CCP than to have its main adversary, the United States, adopt policies that are identical to those implemented by the Beijing regime itself? What better way to psychologically condition Americans to the CCP’s authoritarian methods than have their own government do it? CCP mission accomplished—and continuing—in its continuing hybrid warfare against the United States.

    Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or Zero Hedge.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 22:15

  • China's Power Demand To Surpass Record Amid Heatwave
    China’s Power Demand To Surpass Record Amid Heatwave

    persistent heatwave in China has pushed power consumption to record levels in some areas and even forced rolling blackouts, with new indications demand will continue to rise. 

    Bloomberg quoted He Yang, director of China’s National Energy Administration’s power division, who said power consumption would increase into August during the traditional peak period, adding power demand is already breaking records this month. 

    “After entering July, as the economy grows and temperatures rise amid the global wave of persistently hot weather, our electricity consumption and power load are also growing rapidly,” Yang said. He noted, “the supply and demand of electricity in the country is still stable and orderly.”

    In terms of grid stability, Yang said power generators would be able to ensure sufficient supplies. However, there are instances where forced consumption cuts are needed to rebalance the grid and thwart widespread blackouts. 

    “There have been occasions when power users have been asked to cut consumption in Zhejiang and other parts of China during periods of peak load,” he said. 

    Even though China leads the world in terms of installed green power sources, such as wind and solar, along with energy storage batteries, it still consumes nearly five times as much coal as India and almost six times as much as the US. The latest figures from China show that 65% of the electricity generated is derived from coal. 

    To meet soaring power demand, China’s coal fleet will have to expand. Yan Qin, a China analyst at Refinitiv, recently said China’s coal fleet could increase by 150 gigawatts in the next five years. 

    Chinese provinces are trying to prevent an electricity shortfall experienced last fall when factories and high-rise buildings had to shutter operations. 

    President Xi Jinping recently said coal would be burned for power generation until reliable replacements were readily available. 

    China’s ability to ensure energy security and a stable grid amid soaring demand appears to be through the use and expansion of coal-fired plants.

    Yang also expects another round of surging power demand in the winter. He said Chinese energy companies are already making preparations by purchasing coal and natural gas to expand stockpiles. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 21:55

  • US Carrier Group Heads Towards Taiwan Ahead Of Potential Pelosi Trip After China Warns Of 'Forceful Response'
    US Carrier Group Heads Towards Taiwan Ahead Of Potential Pelosi Trip After China Warns Of ‘Forceful Response’

    If House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) follows through on her planned trip to Taiwan, the US military will beef up security in case a ‘mishap, misstep or misunderstanding’ endangers her safety, AP reports.

    While the trip is still an uncertainty, officials say that the military would ‘increase its movement of forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region,’ though they declined to go into further detail – aside from noting that fighter jets, ships, surveillance assets and other military systems would be used ‘to provide overlapping rings of protection’ for her flight, and any time she spent on the ground.

    [O]fficials said this week that a visit to Taiwan by Pelosi — she would be the highest-ranking U.S. elected official to visit Taiwan since 1997 — would go beyond the usual safety precautions for trips to less risky destinations.

    Asked about planned military steps to protect Pelosi, D-Calif., in the event of a visit, U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Wednesday that discussion of any specific travel is premature. But, he added, “if there’s a decision made that Speaker Pelosi or anyone else is going to travel and they asked for military support, we will do what is necessary to ensure a safe conduct of their visit. And I’ll just leave it at that.” -AP

    (Just like Milley’s assurance to Trump that “We’ve got a plan and we’ve got it covered” in regards to January 6th?)

    To that end, the USS Ronald Reagan and its escorts left Singapore on Monday sailing northeast, according to ship tracking information reported by the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

    The American aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and its strike group, including a guided missile destroyer and a guided missile cruiser, set out from Singapore on Monday heading northeast towards the South China Sea, according to ship-tracking information provided by Beijing-based think tank the South China Sea Strategic Probing Initiative.

    Source: Stratfor

    Pelosi’s trip comes at a time when China and the West have been engaging in risky “one-on-one” confrontations, as China has been trying to assert sweeping territorial claims over the region. “The incidents have included dangerously close fly-bys that force other pilots to swerve to avoid collisions, or harassment or obstruction of air and ship crews, including with blinding lasers or water cannon,” according to the report, which adds that ‘dozens’ of such maneuvers have occurred in 2022 alone.

    China, meanwhile, has long considered self-ruling Taiwan part of its territory, and has repeatedly raised the prospect of taking it by force. The US has maintained informal relations and defense ties with Taiwan.

    The beefed up military cover comes after President Joe Biden said last week that Pelosi’s trip is “not a good idea right now,” and after China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian warned: “If the U.S. insists on going its own way and challenging China’s bottom line, it will surely be met with forceful responses,” adding “All ensuing consequences shall be borne by the U.S.

    According to Mark Cozad, acting associate director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the Rand Corp, the biggest risk for Pelosi’s trip is if some Chinese show of force has “gone awry, or some type of accident that comes out of a demonstration of provocative action.”

    “So it could be an air collision. It could be some sort of missile test, and, again, when you’re doing those types of things, you know, there is always the possibility that something could go wrong.

    Cizad also said the US military presence could backfire and further inflame tensions.

    It is very possible that … our attempts to deter actually send a much different signal than the one we intend to send,” he said, adding “And so you get into … some sort of an escalatory spiral, where our attempts to deter are actually seen as increasingly provocative and vice versa. And that can be a very dangerous dynamic.”

    Barry Pavel, director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, downplayed the plan.

    “Obviously, the White House does not want the speaker to go and I think that’s why you’re getting some of these suggestions,” he said, adding “She’s not going to go with an armada.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 21:44

  • Gingrich: The Coming Big Election American Tsunami
    Gingrich: The Coming Big Election American Tsunami

    Authored by Newt Gingrich via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    As I wrote in my last column, an American tidal wave is coming based on big, nationalized congressional campaigns.

    The American people will repudiate high inflation, fuel prices, and food costs. They will reject the unchecked border and skyrocketing murder rates (which are up 37 percent in New York City and 34 percent in Chicago). And they are sick of relentless values assaults over race, sexuality, and the nature of America.

    If this big election tsunami is going to materialize into what could be the worst Democrat Party repudiation since 1920, Republicans need to understand two things:

    • First, this is an American Majority—not a Republican Majority or a Conservative Majority. Americans of all ethnic and partisan backgrounds are coming together to reject unsustainable pain for their families, communities, and our free society.

    • Second, tsunamis grow out of a big election strategy—not from trying to add up a whole series of small elections.

    The American Majority Project logo. (AmericanMajorityProject.com)

     

    Republicans must learn to talk about a New American Majority—not a Republican majority. They must plan, think, and act for the American Majority. This requires listening to and learning from a lot of people who have not been historically part of the Republican Party.

    This emerging New American Majority requires base broadening—not base mobilization strategies. This is important, because virtually every Washington consultant will reject this idea. But data shows there is a vastly larger majority emerging than Republicans have been used to engaging for the last 90 years. Reaching all of that majority requires new thinking about policy development, language, scheduling, and coalition building. The polling and focus groups which led to this conclusion are all available at AmericanMajorityProject.com. The data is available to everyone for free.

    The big election campaign must be built around big solutions that can actually be implemented. The current crises of the American system, and the Big Government Socialist-Woke Left assault on American values, require big solutions with broad support.

    Only deep, committed support of the vast majority of Americans will force the changes on the hostile establishment. Importantly, only this deep commitment will sustain the changes through ferocious attacks from leftwing activists, who will see their radical vision of a America being rejected by the American people.

    The big election campaign must offer believable, achievable solutions. The American people are frustrated and hurting. They want a movement dedicated to practical, workable problem-solving that will improve their lives. They are tired of partisan politics. The New American Majority will grow by delivering better results than the Big Government Socialist-Woke Left coalition.

    Further, as will become apparent, the better results will be achieved because of the inherent difference in principles between the New American Majority and the Big Governments Socialist left—not just personal capabilities. My new national best seller “Defeating Big Government Socialism: Saving America’s Future” outlines the case for replacing failed ideas and policies with real solutions based on principles that work.

    The big election campaign must be built on the principle that politics is the prelude to governing. Great majority coalitions (Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan) exist because they use political momentum to create governing solutions that improve people’s lives and achieve goals people strongly support. As people see leaders keeping their words—and solutions working and improving their lives and communities—new majorities coalesce around practical success.

    Getting to an American tsunami requires staying positive and focusing on the cultural and political issues on which the New American Majority can agree. The establishment (including their propaganda media) will do everything it can to draw us into fights that distract us from the areas in which our American majority will dominate. They will seek to focus on gossip, internal tension, or other distractions to minimize our ability to communicate with the New American Majority about issues that bring us together and motivate us to win.

    Pay close attention to this: Irrelevant, trivial noise and niche issues are the enemies of growing a majority. Clarity, consistency, and firmness of purpose are the keys to attracting, educating, and holding together a New American Majority.

    Because this New American Majority grows out of the American people’s desire for a better future—and a more stable value system—it is essential for those who would lead the majority to be constantly listening to the American people. Leaders must continuously be learning how Americans are thinking through and responding to the extraordinary pressures of our time.

    Lincoln’s government “of the people, by the people, and for the people” naturally requires constantly listening to and trying to understand “the people.” This is the heart of a governing majority.

    We are not reinventing anything. New American Majorities have come together before to save society. Every activist and leader who wants to help develop this emerging majority should read about Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, and my latest book if we are going to achieve a better American future.

    A big election American tsunami is possible but not inevitable. Following these principles make it much more likely.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 21:35

  • Point72 Hires Two Former Central Bank Employees
    Point72 Hires Two Former Central Bank Employees

    Further proving that Wall Street just one giant cesspool where everyone swims around in everyone else’s tepid bathwater, Steve Cohen’s Point72 put out a press release this week announcing two “key hires” for its offices in New York and London. Both hires are formers from Central Banks (one from the Fed and the other from the ECB). 

    The company press release announced the hiring of Sophia Drossos as Economist and Strategist based in New York, and Soeren Radde as Head of European Economic Research, based in London.

    Point 72 Head Economist Dean Maki said: “With Sophia and Soeren’s arrivals, we have significantly boosted our economic forecasting and analysis capabilities, adding to the support we offer our global teams of investment professionals at a time when macro factors are affecting asset prices perhaps more than ever.”

    Drossos was formerly Head of Research at Light Sky Macro and held similar positions at Thiel Macro and Element Capital Management, the release says. She also happened formerly be “Chief Dealer at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where she oversaw and planned open market operations and provided financial market analysis for Federal Open Market Committee and U.S. Treasury officials.”

    Surprisingly (or not), Radde also has experiences in the world of central banking. He formerly “recently led coverage of the European Central Bank (ECB) and was the economist responsible for Germany forecasting and political commentary at Goldman Sachs”. But, prior to that, he spent five years at the ECB working as an economist in the Monetary Policy Strategy Division. 

    As part of his job, Radde also researched “the transmission of monetary policy measures” and had one of the most important roles at any central bank…contributing to the speeches of executive board members. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 21:15

  • What Psychedelics And Bitcoin Have In Common
    What Psychedelics And Bitcoin Have In Common

    Authored by Maxx Mannheimer via BitcoinMagazine.com,

    I’ll begin by stating that I do not suggest that anyone take psychedelics. Each individual knows what is best for them and it is not my intent to challenge your free will in any way. If what I have written connects with your life experience, great. If it does not, feel free to ignore every word. But if you wish to debate about what I am presenting, I would only request that you carefully read this article in its entirety. I do not recommend participating in any activity which is illegal where you live and I do not recommend taking psychedelic substances without professional guidance. Psychedelic experiences can be profoundly liberating and inspiring, but they can also be existentially earth-shattering if used without proper preparation. As always, do your own research and use your best judgment.

    I’m not the first to draw a link between psychedelics and Bitcoin. Articles about billionaire investor Christian Angermayer have highlighted at least one anecdote of psilocybe mushrooms assisting with the understanding of Bitcoin. However, I believe this won’t be the last time we see these two topics mentioned together. If my intuition is correct, we will be seeing many more articles along these lines as Bitcoin and psychedelics both enter the mainstream consciousness.

    A financial revolution without a spiritual one will fail to create a better world for the majority of life on this planet. A spiritual revolution without a financial one will fail to enact lasting change due to the corruption that is built into our current monetary system. Both are needed to fix the world. It is important that we acknowledge this dynamic period in human history holistically and ecologically rather than making blanket statements about quick-fix solutions to the issues that humanity is facing.

    The Bitcoin community often discusses the potential for a second renaissance. I hear much of the same talk in the psychedelics space. However, the two worlds often don’t consider the potential synergies between the two. My hope for this article is to support the ice-breaking process which has already begun. The 1960s were a time of ranging counterculture with no concrete direction. It represented a powerful lashing out against a system that doesn’t serve humanity. But after creating a cultural movement — and some excellent music — the flame was extinguished by draconian government intervention.

    Not only did all use of psychedelics get pushed to the black market, but all scientific research was completely halted for about 50 years. Many psychedelics were being used recklessly at that time, but psychedelics were made illegal for political reasons, not health reasons. The loss to human progress is impossible to calculate.

    In my assessment, the heavy handed prohibition is unraveling before our eyes. Various city and state governments have opted to decriminalize or legalize the use of psychedelics for therapy. Well known authors, comedians and other public figures are openly discussing psychedelics. Netflix is airing documentaries about psychedelics and many podcasters are covering the topic in a way which would have been shocking ten years ago. Publicly-traded companies are even working on psychedelic pharmaceutical development.

    More conservative-minded Bitcoiners may pause before seeing this in a positive light, but the data regarding psychedelics potential for therapeutic use can’t be ignored. Therapy using MDMA — the chemical abbreviation for the drug known more commonly as ecstasy or “Molly” — seems to be the most effective way to treat post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in a lasting manner. The Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies (MAPS) is moving through U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) trials to have the substance rescheduled. Their phase three trials have demonstrated 67% of PTSD patients no longer met the criteria for PTSD two months after their sessions. Even after the fiat fiasco collapses we’ll still need to support these people who were traumatized by it. Note: MAPS accepts donations in bitcoin.

    The psychedelics community may have some hesitancy about the Bitcoin community as well. From my interaction with plant medicine enthusiasts, I have gathered that they’re a sensitive bunch. I genuinely mean that as a compliment, but sensitivity doesn’t always lend itself well to the self-identified “toxic” Bitcoin community. As a generalization, they are wary of anything that could be used to exclude people and deepen inequality. These concerns are valid, but are often projected onto the bitcoin life raft rather than the fiat sinking ship. As a result, there isn’t a sturdy connection between these two communities, but I am predicting that there could be for a number of reasons.

    The first bridge is the one that leads towards personal and collective liberation. Psychedelics have the potential to liberate us from old systems of thought and all of their downstream effects. Bitcoin has the potential to liberate us from Modern Monetary Theory and all its downstream effects. Both are interested in reducing violence against humanity. Both are interested in reducing government control over what we decide to put in our bodies. Both carry an inherently egalitarian questioning of authority.

    The second bridge is the novelty of thought required to understand Bitcoin. As I mentioned in “The Bitcoin Customer Service Department,” Bitcoin is a complex paradigm-shifting topic. Despite the simplicity of the Bitcoin white paper, understanding all its implications requires a dramatically novel understanding of the world. In Michael Pollan’s book “How to Change Your Mind,” the following metaphor is used by Mendel Kaelen to explain the effects of psychedelics on the human psyche.

    “Think of the brain as a hill covered in snow, and thoughts as sleds gliding down that hill. As one sled after another goes down the hill, a small number of main trails will appear in the snow. And every time a new sled goes down, it will be drawn into the preexisting trails, almost like a magnet. In time, it becomes more and more difficult to glide down the hill on any other path or in a different direction. Think of psychedelics as temporarily flattening the snow. The deeply worn trails disappear, and suddenly the sled can go in other directions, exploring new landscapes and, literally, creating new pathways.”

    This metaphor is an excellent way to visualize what has been observed in psychedelic patient trials. Neural pathways become more flexible. New connections are created that allow for novel thought, understanding and behavior. Have you ever had a conversation with someone where they fully understood your viewpoint and agreed with everything you said just to see them revert back to their default assumptions a day or two later? That’s the snow metaphor in conversation form. The more concrete our neural connections become, the less likely we will be to understand new emergent technologies.

    The third bridge relates to the counterculture which gravitates around both Bitcoin and psychedelics. Radical rejection of conventional norms seems to be inherent in the Bitcoin ethos. Bitcoiners generally don’t accept mainstream media, political corruption or dishonesty. Psychedelics enthusiasts generally don’t accept moralistic arguments, violence or inauthenticity. Both groups seek fair treatment of humanity. Both groups avoid processed foods. Both groups are opposed to mindless materialistic consumption. Psychedelics enthusiasts are proponents of meditation and if Bitcoin holders haven’t been meditating through the 2020-22 market, I wouldn’t know what else to call it.

    Psychedelics pose a threat to authoritarian systems of control because they show users a deeper potential for spirituality and connection with their environment. They enable a novel view of circumstances which allows people to notice that what they are used to may not be the truth. What happened in the 1960s, exactly? A ton of young people realized that the game they were playing was making them and the rest of society miserable. They dropped out in the hopes of finding a new way to live. Most of the hippies in the 1960s were deeply distrustful of the government and of the fruitless wars politicians were creating. They knew the game was rigged and the best course of action was to opt out. What are Bitcoiners talking about today? Essentially the same thing.

    I know that both of these amorphous groups may balk at the fact that I have categorized them into groups at all. They are not really groups, but rather millions of individuals who share common interests and many of whom will never meet. That’s the beauty of it. Bitcoiners and psychedelic enthusiasts seem to be under a constant centrifugal force. As soon as I begin to categorize or wrangle them into any semblance of a group identity, they sprawl out even further. They span the full scope of human backgrounds and experience.

    The propaganda war against psychedelics has largely lumped them together, in the mind of the public, with dangerous addictive substances. I would recommend a more nuanced approach to understanding drugs and their uses. Every drug is a tool and each has its proper use. To simply ask for any random tool when what you really need is specifically a Phillips-head screwdriver, you’re unlikely to meet your needs. A closer inspection of each substance will clearly demonstrate that lumping all “drugs” together, simply due to legal status, is absurd.

    The federal government has clearly lost its grip on “The War On Drugs.” In direct opposition to federal drug scheduling laws, Oregon has decriminalized all drugs and made psilocybe mushroom therapy legal. As Ryan McMaken points out in his recent article, 43% of Americans are currently living in states which have legalized recreational cannabis. Again, in direct opposition to federal drug scheduling laws. If there was a “War On Drugs” it is fair to say that the drugs have won. Right or wrong, this trend is likely to continue.

    The continuous lack of understanding regarding drug use in America has had a devastating impact on the psyche and freedom of the country. We have the highest incarceration rate in the world and approximately half of our prisoners are locked up for non-violent offenses. Drugs and alcohol play a critical role in many of the violent offenses as well. Those incarcerations damage families for generations which ultimately increases future crime rates and use of addictive drugs. Rinse and repeat. The harder we press down on drugs, the more harmful the drugs on the street become. Opium, heroin, oxycontin, fentanyl. Overdoses have never been worse. The criminal justice system is totally broken and people are suffering. Is it possible that people are turning to these drugs because they are disenfranchised by a system which has done nothing but abuse them since the moment they were born?

    Don’t worry though! Big pharma has a solution for us. They’ll use their cantillon-bucks to lobby for their interests and pay doctors to prescribe psychotropic pharmaceuticals to numb the populace. It’s helpful to keep folks docile as we push them back into the massive machine which is crushing their souls. Western medicine really shines when it comes to saving people who are in dire need of intervention, but largely falls flat when it comes to improving quality of life in a sustainable way.

    In addition to treating PTSD, psychedelics have shown remarkable potential in assisting with anxiety, depression, addiction, birth trauma and fear of death. I personally have witnessed resolutions of serious physical ailments which were thought to be permanent medical conditions following ayahuasca ceremonies. Is this a result of the plant medicine or is it a result of the plant medicine’s ability to unlock human potential in self-healing? In either case, the effects could only be described as miraculous.

    Due to the lengthy prohibition, empirical research in this field is just beginning and the potential benefits are much broader than most realize. As John Sanro argues in “The Mindbody Prescription,” many of the ailments which we think of as physical in nature originate in the emotional body. If used responsibly, psychedelics can create lasting emotional relief which does not require repeated use. Most psychedelics are also non-addictive. Many have said that one profound experience is enough to create a permanent positive impact in one’s life. To my knowledge there are no pharmaceuticals which can make that claim.

    The understanding of self-interest in human action is a critical component for understanding society. The understanding of what constitutes the self is a critical component for understanding spirituality. At the core of every spiritual practice is the same lesson. The litigious dogma which separates religions simply distracts from that. This has been said at least since Baruch Spinoza, Sri Aurobindo and Alan Watts. Some have argued that the core spiritual message has been lost since the original teachings of Buddha, Christ and Muhammad were passed on to their followers.

    As eloquently discussed by Eckhart Tolle in “A New Earth,” humanity has simply missed the mark and that is the origin of suffering. The boundary between our self-interest and the interest of every other form of life is merely a condition of our perspective on the separation. You may discover that acting exclusively in self-interest without any consideration of others gradually becomes self-destructive. Most actions taken for the exclusive benefit of others, at great personal cost, typically prove themselves fruitless as well. There is a good reason for this. In his 2001 book, “No Boundary,” Ken Wilber presents a thorough case that all separation is simply an illusion. It is my belief that we all get the chance to see through this illusion upon departing this physical realm, but if we can look through the door, before permanently crossing the threshold, the broadened perspective can be beneficial to our experience until the departure.

    However, all of these words have very little consequence if they are not accompanied by first-hand experience. The metaphor I like to employ for this understanding is that of the mountain. Throughout human history the great prophets and mystics have arduously made their way up the mountain using various methods. Many have done their best to describe the sights, sounds and viewpoints from the paths that they chose. Those who reached the top have seldom had words to describe what was there and many never make the attempt to explain. That place is not describable to those who have not experienced it. This is true of every aspect of life. How can sight be described to a blind person? How can sound be described to a deaf person? Words ultimately only point to truth, they do not contain truth. Without a shared context of reality, words are empty.

    What psychedelics may be able to assist with, if the seeker is prepared, is to find a temporary view of various parts of the mountain. The glimpses into those heightened states of consciousness are simply that: glimpses. They do not contain the same value as thousands of hours of meditation, years of yoga practice or pilgrimages to holy sites, but the glimpses they provide can be profoundly liberating. To hop in a helicopter and visit the top of the mountain for fifteen minutes has the potential to alter your life permanently.

    The permanency is what many people fear when they hear about psychedelics, but what if the changes that remain with us are largely beneficial to our well-being rather than harmful? What if the expansion of human consciousness is exactly what is needed to slingshot us into the next phase of human evolution? The lowering of time preference alone seems to have a spiritual component, but is it enough to shift human nature away from the darkest parts of our past? The answer will come in the form of individual choice and expression. I want to believe that the separation of money and state will benefit humanity as a whole, but I won’t be entirely convinced until I see how it happens.

    What I would ask from the reader is a gentle approach to both psychedelics and to Bitcoin. You may benefit from listening for the true intent of those you are communicating with, not the intent you may have assumed they have. This speaks true not just for Bitcoin and psychedelics, but for all topics of discussion. The lack of understanding of a topic is not the same as malevolence. Assume the former even if you suspect the latter and your ability to support others in learning will improve significantly.

    Have a nice trip.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 20:55

  • Why China's Youth Unemployment Has Hit A Record 19.3%
    Why China’s Youth Unemployment Has Hit A Record 19.3%

    China has a new pandemic to worry about: Unemployment, underemployment and disillusionment is steadily spreading throughout China’s highly-educated youngest generation. 

    As with most dismal economic circumstances, this one is largely the fault of government. As Bloomberg explains: 

    A perfect storm of factors has propelled unemployment among 16- to 24-year-old urbanites to a record 19.3%, more than twice the comparable rate in the US. The government’s hardline coronavirus strategy has led to layoffs, while its regulatory crackdown on real estate and education companies has hit the private sector.

    At the same time, a record number of college and vocational school graduates — some 12 million — are entering the job market this summer. This highly educated cohort has intensified a mismatch between available roles and jobseekers’ expectations.  

    China’s maximalist approach to combatting Covid fell hardest on private companies, which were more likely to lay off workers than entities owned by the government. At the same time, the government hammered private internet companies with penalties for alleged monopolistic actions, and cut off financing for private real estate ventures. 

    That’s had a marked effect on the career preferences of young Chinese. Bloomberg reports a whopping 39% of college grads now say state-owned companies are at the top of their list of preferred employers. 

    Young people are also applying in droves to work directly for the government: The number of college grads applying for civil servant positions this year is 39% above last year’s total. Chasing a generation away from the country’s most innovative and entrepreneurial employers will have long-lasting, negative consequences for the Chinese economy.  

    Meanwhile, China’s youth comprise the country’s most educated generation ever, with a 60% attendance rate that’s comparable to developed economies. However, there aren’t enough jobs to match this enormous talent pool’s potential. 

    In a parallel to the United States, too few Chinese are attending vocational schools, which have been deeply stigmatized by society, along with the factory jobs they enable. Add it all up, and China has far too many applicants for IT positions and too few willing to fill open positions for those who build and repair things. 

    The government has trotted out subsidies and tax rebates to encourage hiring, but the rewards are so small they’re not going to move the needle much. 

    Cultivating dampened expectations, Chinese President Xi Jinping last month counseled new graduates to “prevent the situation in which one is unfit for a higher position but unwilling to take a lower one…to get rich and get fame overnight is not realistic.” 

    A sort of listlessness is taking hold, summarized by a Chinese phrase that became popular last year: “tang ping,” which translates into “lying flat.” It’s emblematic of a lifestyle that eschews the rat race and embraces low expectations for professional and financial success.

    As youth unemployment steadily rises, Bloomberg reports a more ominous phrase is now emerging: “bailan.” It means “let it rot.”  

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 20:35

  • Electric Vehicles: Trading One Form Of Hazardous Mining For Another
    Electric Vehicles: Trading One Form Of Hazardous Mining For Another

    Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times,

    Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) reached a record 3 million in 2020, according to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

    That’s an increase of 40 percent from 2019 and is in contrast to overall car sales, which saw a 16 percent decrease.

    The report further estimated that EV sales could reach 23 million by 2030, thanks partly to the Biden administration’s stated goal of half of all vehicles sold in 2030 being zero-emissions vehicles.

    Pointedly, lithium batteries are the preferred battery technology because it has the highest charge-to-weight ratio.

    The push to transition to electric vehicles is driven by key regulations by the United States, Canada, and the European Union, to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles, and transition to a more environmentally friendly future, according to the energy agency.

    However, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reports that this uptick in EV adoption and increased demand for lithium batteries presents a significant environmental challenge.

    “As demand for lithium increases and production is tapped from deeper rock mines and brines, the challenges of mitigating environmental risk will increase.”

    Rod Colwell, CEO of Controlled Thermal Resources (R), and Tracy Sizemore, the company’s Global Director of Battery Materials, walk along geothermal mud pots near the shore of the Salton Sea, where the company is mining for lithium, in Niland, Calif., on July 15, 2021. (Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP Photo)

    Lithium in its pure form doesn’t occur naturally on Earth.

    Currently, there are two viable ways to obtain lithium: hard rock extraction or evaporation ponds called salar brines.

    Seawater presents a possible future source of lithium, but because of extensive water, land use, and time requirements, extracting lithium from seawater is not feasible.

    Importantly, due to its cost-effective nature, salar brines are the most commonly used method for lithium extraction —66 percent of global lithium resources are from lithium brine deposits, according to UNCTAD’s report.

    Miners drill holes in salt flats to extract lithium and pump the salty, mineral-rich brine to the surface.

    Once at the surface, the water evaporates and leaves a mixture of lithium salts, borax, manganese, and potassium. The mixture is then filtered and placed into another evaporation pool, where it evaporates for an additional 12 to 18 months.

    After that period, lithium carbonate and hydroxide are extracted and can be used to make cathode material in batteries.

    Materials such as cobalt and nickel are processed with lithium chemicals to produce battery electrodes.

    According to a report from the Institute for Energy Research (IER), it takes approximately 500,000 gallons of water to extract one metric ton of lithium from salar brines.

    If water were in abundant supply, the above heavy demand might be overlooked. But, more than 50 percent of lithium resources are located in the “lithium triangle” of Chile, Bolivia, and Argentina. And, UNCTAD reports this area is one of the driest areas on Earth.

    Rafael, 7, walks on the Uyuni Salt Flats after bathing in a hole with salty water in Uyuni, Bolivia, in 2014.  (AP Photo/Victor Caivano)

    On the jagged plain of Chile’s Salar de Atacama, the U.S. Department of the Interior’s geological survey reports that it hasn’t rained “for as long as people have been keeping track.”

    The result is a diverse but fragile ecosystem with scarce water resources.

    However, the Salar de Atacama is the largest salt flat in Chile and is rich in lithium salts just under the surface. Consequently, it’s become a significant source of lithium mining.

    Indeed, 65 percent of the region’s water goes toward mining activities, according to IER.

    The effect is a lack of water that’s forced local farmers—who grow quinoa and herd llamas, and nearby communities—to abandon their ancestral settlements and find water elsewhere, according to UNCTAD.

    “We used to have a river before that now doesn’t exist. There isn’t a drop of water,” stated Elena Rivera, the president of the Indigenous Colla Community of the Copiapo commune, to the National Resource Defense Council (NRDC).

    “And not only here in Copiapo but in all of Chile, there are rivers and lakes that have disappeared—all because a company has a lot more right to water than we do as human beings or citizens of Chile.”

    Lithium mining isn’t the only concerning factor with lithium-ion batteries. There are additional chemical elements in batteries, like cobalt and graphite, which pose social and environmental challenges, according to UNCTAD.

    In its 2022 report, the USGS reports that in 2021, over 70 percent of the global cobalt production came from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and that Southern Congo sits atop an estimated 3.5 million metric tons, which is almost half of the world’s known supply.

    The problem, according to UNCTAD, is that dust from cobalt mines often contains toxic metals such as uranium, and DRC mines may contain sulfur minerals that can generate sulfuric acid, according to UNCTAD.

    When exposed to air or water, sulfuric acid can lead to acid mine drainage, polluting rivers and drinking water for hundreds of years.

    And, up to 40,000 children are estimated to be working in these mines under slave labor conditions.

    In 2021, China was the leading graphite producer, producing an estimated 79 percent of the world’s total output, according to the USGS report.

    According to USCTAD, graphite mining has similar environmental impacts to cobalt mining; it leads to contaminated soils, water, and toxic dust. ­­­

    A woman and a man separate cobalt from mud and rocks near a mine between Lubumbashi and Kolwezi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in 2015. (Federico Scoppa/AFP/Getty Images)

    Finally, in addition to the above-stated problems, mining battery components emit a fair amount of CO2, which varies based on specific mining and manufacturing processes.

    “There are carbon dioxide and other greenhouse emissions that come with the process of extraction. [It’s] not like CO2 comes out of the lithium, but it does take energy to mine things—today many of those systems involve emitting CO2,” said Zeke Hausfather, Climate Research Lead at nonprofit Berkeley Earth to Climate360.

    “There’s emissions associated with the processes of mining like CO2 emissions creating sulfuric acid and other things used in the mining process—the life cycle of all of these things involves some environmental impact,” Hausfather concluded.

    Research and consulting firm Circular Energy Storage reported that emission results can range from 39 kg CO2 equivalent per kilowatt hour to 196 kg CO2e/kWh, which significantly impacts the potential positive impact of electric vehicles.

    “If an electric vehicle is using a 40 kWh battery its embedded emissions from manufacturing would then be equivalent to the CO2 emissions caused by driving a diesel car with a fuel consumption of 5 litre per 100 km in between 11,800 km and 89,400 km before the electric car even has driven one meter,” Circular Energy reports.

    “While the lower range might not be significant, the latter would mean an electric car would have a positive climate impact first after seven years for the European average driver.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 20:15

  • Blinken Offers Russia "Substantial" Deal For Return Of Brittney Griner & Paul Whelan
    Blinken Offers Russia “Substantial” Deal For Return Of Brittney Griner & Paul Whelan

    Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a surprise announcement on the Britney Griner case, saying Wednesday afternoon the United States is ready to cut a rare deal for her release from Russian custody. He said the Biden administration has made a “substantial proposal” to Moscow. Talks appear to have already been underway for weeks.

    He also named imprisoned former Marine Paul Whelan, currently serving a 16-year prison sentence in Russia stemming from a “spying” conviction after what he and US officials have called a “sham trial”, as part of the deal on the table. “We put a substantial proposal on the table weeks ago to facilitate their release,” Blinken said in a press briefing.

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    The Associated Press underscores “The statement marked the first time the US government has publicly revealed any concrete action it has taken to secure the release of Griner, who was arrested on drug-related charges at a Moscow airport in February and testified Wednesday at her trial.”

    Blinken didn’t offer details of the arrangement Washington is offering, however. Likely the two American citizens’ release would come in the form of a prisoner swap – though Russia might possibly demand sanctions relief – which would likely collapse any pending deal.

    There’s been widespread speculation that the US could release notorious Russian arms trafficker Viktor Bout from custody, currently serving a 25-year federal prison sentence since 2012. Russian state media has frequently mentioned Bout’s name over the past months as high on the foreign ministry’s list of priorities. 

    CNN is reporting that indeed it’s Viktor Bout that the US is offering to exchange, though Blinken himself did not publicly confirm this…

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    Per a breaking CNN report:

    After months of internal debate, the Biden administration has offered to exchange Viktor Bout, a convicted Russian arms trafficker serving a 25-year US prison sentence, as part of a potential deal to secure the release of two Americans held by Russia, Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan, according to people briefed on the matter.

    These sources told CNN that the plan to trade Bout for Whelan and Griner received the backing of President Joe Biden after being under discussion since earlier this year. Biden’s support for the swap overrides opposition from the Department of Justice, which is generally against prisoner trades.

    Viktor Bout was successfully extradited to the Southern District of New York from Thailand in 2010.

    Despite Blinken not having spoken to his Russian counterpart since Feb.15 – just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine began – the AP cites the top US diplomat as indicating Wednesday “he had requested a call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.”

    Griner testified on her own behalf in a Moscow court on Wednesday…

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    “U.S. officials said the desire for an answer on the prisoner offer was the primary, but not only, reason that the US on Wednesday requested the call with Lavrov,” AP notes further. Blinken indicated he expects to speak with Lavrov on the matter in the “coming days”.

    The CNN report cited an administration official who said at the moment “the ball is in Russia’s court” concerning the offer to do a prisoner swap.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 19:55

  • Markets Take Pelosi's Taiwan Visit Talk In Stride
    Markets Take Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit Talk In Stride

    By George Lei, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and analyst

    A possible visit to Taiwan early next month by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — as part of her Asia tour — has stirred a fair bit of diplomatic tension between Beijing and Washington.

    Financial markets in Taiwan, however, have so far taken the political turmoil in stride. If history offers any guidance, any selloff on concerns about a military confrontation would provide golden opportunities for buy-and-hold investors.  

    The Financial Times first reported the trip on July 19 during Asian trading hours, eliciting an immediate warning from Beijing. Having had enough time to absorb the news and likely repercussions, Taiwan’s benchmark index managed to climb 1.4% on a closing basis between July 18 and 27, handily beating major stock gauges in Hong Kong and mainland China. Investors seem to have concluded the aggressive rhetoric from mid-level Chinese foreign ministry and defense officials poses little actual risk of war.

    Beijing might respond to the visit in a couple of ways, Bloomberg reported last week. Reactions range from relatively mild ones such as fighter jet incursions into Taiwan’s air-defense identification zone or crossing the Taiwan Strait’s median line, to something more aggressive like a missile test near the island or even unprecedented tensions such as warplanes shadowing Pelosi’s flight.

    Chinese forces even could intercept Pelosi’s aircraft and prevent her from landing. Such a scenario, however, is unlikely since it would mark a dramatic escalation, according to Gabriel Wildau, New York-based managing director at Teneo, a global CEO advisory firm. Beijing could be less confrontational yet still set a new precedent, such as flying into Taiwanese airspace. That would stop “short of a hostile act against US military aircraft,” Wildau wrote in a July 26 note.

    Teneo believes Beijing’s response cycle could be “months-long” if the missile crisis more than two decades ago serves as an accurate reference point. On May 22, 1995, Washington green-lit a “private visit” by Taiwanese leader Lee Teng-hui. That decision, on top of the island’s first direct presidential election the following year, prompted Beijing to order live-fire military exercises and test-fire ballistic missiles. In December 1995, President Clinton sent the US aircraft carrier Nimitz through the Taiwan Strait. In March 1996, two aircraft carrier battle groups — centered around the Nimitz and the USS Independence — plied the waters near Taiwan.

    The island’s equity gauge initially sold off back then, lagging the MSCI China and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprise indexes, before bottoming in August 1995. By May 20, 1996, when Lee was sworn in as Taiwan’s first popularly-elected president, the benchmark index has recovered all lost ground, outperforming peers by a wide margin.

    For long-term investors, other risks are far more relevant than the Pelosi saga, which will eventually come to an end. China’s resurgent Covid cases have once again threatened manufacturing and warehousing operations in Shenzhen and Shanghai. And the lockdowns will weigh on Taiwanese producers through supply chain channels at a time when the island’s industrial output grew at the slowest pace since January 2020, according to DBS Group.

    Concern over falling global semiconductor demand means capital outflows from the island are unlikely to turn around anytime soon, the selling pressure on Taiwanese stocks will likely persist and the currency will come under pressure, wrote Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank N.V. in Hong Kong.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 19:35

  • Apple Nabs Key Lamborghini Executive to Work on Its Electric Car
    Apple Nabs Key Lamborghini Executive to Work on Its Electric Car

    Apple has plucked one of Lamborghini’s top car-development managers from Volkswagen Group, in a sign that it’s accelerating work on its self-driving electric vehicle program that’s already seen hundreds of former Tesla, Rivian, Alphabet and other engineers join, according to Bloomberg.

    Mockup of potential Apple EV based on “genuine patents filed by Apple, Inc.”, created by Venarama

    Luigi Taraborrelli, a 20-year veteran of Lamborghini, was hired to help spearhead the design of Apple’s vehicle, according to anonymous sources. Taraborrelli most recently served as Lamborghini’s head of chassis and vehicle dynamics.

    To see some of Lamborghini’s latest work, check out this (Jeremy Clarkson-less, and therefore lame) Top Gear review of the Countach reboot.

    Taraborrelli, who worked on the Lamborghini Urus, Huracan and Aventador, will become one of the senior managers on Apple’s EV team. As noted, he also oversaw Lambo’s chassis development, including handling, suspensions, steering, brakes and rims, per his Linkedin profile.

    Earlier this year, Apple tapped a 31-year veteran of Ford Motor Co. to lead its vehicle-safety efforts. Last year, it hired Ulrich Kranz, the former chief of struggling electric-car maker Canoo Inc. and former leader of BMW’s electric-car business. Before that, Apple enlisted former Tesla Inc. Autopilot chief Stuart Bowers to work on self-driving technology.

    The Apple project includes hundreds of former engineers from Tesla and other car companies, including Rivian Automotive Inc., Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo, Volvo Car AB and Mercedes-Benz Group AG. It also has former senior design executives on staff from Tesla, McLaren, Porsche and Aston Martin. -Bloomberg

    Apple is shooting for a 2025 introduction, with a design that lets riders face each other in a ‘limousine-like’ interior. Ultimately, Apple has ambitions to create a fully-autonomous car without a steering wheel or pedals, that could spell trouble for Tesla.

    That said, Apple has also lost a few key people along the way – including former project head, Doug Field (former Tesla who joined Ford), and AI specialist Ian Goodfellow. The project is currently run by Kevin Lynch, who’s also in charge of the Apple Watch and health software teams – and John Giannandrea, the company’s head of machine learning.

    Only one question remains; will it be able to do this???

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 19:15

  • Ghislaine Maxwell Transferred To Low-Security Prison In Florida
    Ghislaine Maxwell Transferred To Low-Security Prison In Florida

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell has been moved to a low-security federal prison in Florida, which offers a number of amenities including yoga and movies, to serve out her 20-year prison sentence.

    Ghislaine Maxwell attends the 4th Annual WIE Symposium at Center 548 in New York on Sept. 20, 2013. (Laura Cavanaugh/Getty Images)

    The Federal Bureau of Prisons lists Maxwell, 60, at the Federal Correctional Institution in Tallahassee, which is described on its website as a “low security federal correctional institution with a detention center.” A judge had asked to have her serve out her sentence in the Federal Correctional Institution Danbury, in Connecticut.

    Accused of being a madam to convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, Maxwell was convicted in December of five federal charges including sex trafficking of a minor. Prosecutors accused the UK socialite and Epstein, a multimillionaire, of plotting to lure and groom young girls into relationships with Epstein between 1994 and 2004. She is slated to be released from prison in 2037.

    At FCI Tallahassee, inmates can participate in yoga, pilates, weights, softball, flag football, and frisbee, according to the Zoukis Consulting Group. Maxwell also will be able to watch movies at the prison, the prison consulting group’s website says.

    Epstein was convicted of sex crimes in 2008 and was sentenced to house arrest in Florida. In July 2019, he was arrested on federal sex trafficking charges before he was found dead in a prison cell in Manhattan a month later, which the New York City Medical Examiner’s office ruled his death a suicide by hanging.

    No Remorse

    Maxwell’s 20-year sentence was shorter than the one sought by prosecutors.

    It’s been an incredibly long road to justice for myself and for many other survivors,” said Sarah Ransome, one of Maxwell’s and Epstein’s accusers. “This is for the girls that didn’t have their say, the ones that weren’t here.”

    Judge Alison J. Nathan noted as she imposed the prison term and a $750,000 fine that Maxwell never expressed remorse for her crimes. The judge said she wanted the sentence to send an “unmistakable message” that nobody is above the law.

    Four survivors at the sentencing described their sexual abuse, including Annie Farmer, who was briefly overcome with emotion as she addressed the judge. She said she and her sister tried to go public with their stories about being abused by Epstein and Maxwell two decades ago, only to be shut down by the powerful couple through threats and influence with authorities.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 18:55

  • Trump Files 'Notice Of Intent' To Sue CNN Over 'False Statements'
    Trump Files ‘Notice Of Intent’ To Sue CNN Over ‘False Statements’

    Former President Donald Trump has filed a ‘Notice of Intent’ to sue CNN for “repeated defamatory statements.”

    In a recent filing through Washington-based law firm, Ifrah Law, under Florida statute § 770.02, Trump seeks to force the network to “publish a full and fair correction, apology, or retraction” based on published pieces or broadcasts that he says made “false statements” about him.

    “I hereby demand on behalf of President Donald Trump that CNN (1) immediately take down the false and defamatory publications, (2) immediately issue a full and fair retraction of the statements identified herein in as conspicuous a manner as they were originally published, and (3) immediately cease and desist from its continued use of ‘Big Lie’ and ‘lying’ when describing President Trump’s subjective belief regarding the integrity of the 2020 election,” reads the letter.

    Failure to issue an apology will result in a lawsuit.

    “Failure to publish such a correction, apology, or retraction will result in the filing of a lawsuit and damages being sought against you, CNN,” reads the document, which was reported by the Daily Caller.

    I have notified CNN of my intent to file a lawsuit over their repeated defamatory statements against me,” Trump said in a statement. “I will also be commencing actions against other media outlets who have defamed me and defrauded the public regarding the overwhelming evidence of fraud throughout the 2020 Election. I will never stop fighting for the truth and for the future of our Country!”

    The notice accuses CNN of repeatedly airing claims that Trump was “illegitimately elected” in 2016, which went unchallenged. It then accuses the network of ‘feeding a narrative’ that repeatedly defamed Trump’s character leading up to, and after, the 2020 election.

    The document then stated that CNN inaccurately branded Trump as a “liar” and likened him to Adolf Hitler and communist leaders by labeling his election fraud claims as the “Big Lie.” The network has coined the term “Big Lie” in relation to Trump more than 7,700 times since January 2021, the document said.

    “In this instance, President Trump’s comments are not lies: He subjectively believes that the results of the 2020 presidential election turned on fraudulent voting activity in several key states,” the document said.

    The document alleged that the network treats Trump unfairly in comparison to other public figures, including Democratic Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, Jussie Smollett and Andrew McCabe. It then argued that the former president’s questions about election integrity are legitimate, given that True the Vote reportedly found evidence of illegal, fraudulent votes in states such as Georgia and Arizona. -Daily Caller

    Could this be a 2024 election strategy?

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 18:35

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 27th July 2022

  • Italian Conservatives Call For Greater Border Security After Footage Of Migrant Violence Goes Viral
    Italian Conservatives Call For Greater Border Security After Footage Of Migrant Violence Goes Viral

    By Thomas Brooke of Remix News.

    Disturbing footage of a man being subjected to a vicious attack in a public square in the Italian city of Milan has prompted calls by conservative politicians for stricter border security in the country.

    The now viral footage shows a man being drop-kicked in the face in Piazza Duca D’Aosta by a man described by the Italian Il Giornale newspaper as a “homeless Tunisian” national, before the migrant smashes a bottle on his victim who lies on the floor in pain.

    The assailant proceeds to brutally kick his victim in the head, as screams can be heard from onlookers, before nonchalantly walking away from the scene.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The context of the attack is unknown but has now been highlighted by the leaders of two of Italy’s largest parties ahead of the snap election on Sept. 25, called after Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s resignation late last week.

    “Scenes of ordinary urban warfare between foreigners, violence and blood. Zero tolerance against criminals, security returns from September 25,” Lega leader Matteo Salvini said, commenting on the story.

    Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the right-wing Brothers of Italy asked: “How many other attacks and violence will we have to witness to admit that there is a huge security problem in Italy?

    “There is no more time to waste,” she added.

    Meloni is reportedly in the pole position to lead Italy following September’s election with her Brothers of Italy party the favorite, according to the polls.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    A latest Demopolis survey places Meloni’s party at 24 percent, while Salvini’s Lega sits in third at 14 percent.

    Unlike Salvini, Meloni’s party refused to enter into coalition talks with the current Italian government, instead choosing to stay in opposition and attack the administration from the sidelines, a move that come the final week in September may prove to have paid off.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/27/2022 – 02:00

  • A Deeper Dive Into Allegations Of Sabotage Within FBI's Hunter Biden Probe
    A Deeper Dive Into Allegations Of Sabotage Within FBI’s Hunter Biden Probe

    Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

    Yesterday, Senator Chuck Grassley sent this letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland and FBI Director Christopher Wray regarding allegations from “highly credible whistleblowers” about the FBI’s “false portrayal” of derogatory Hunter Biden materials as “disinformation.”

    If these allegations are true, it’s a damning depiction of FBI leadership and it proves their efforts to influence the 2020 election. This is the second (if not third) straight election the FBI has meddled in, given the influence the Trump/Russia investigation – and its unlawful origins with the FBI – had over the 2018 midterms.

    Grassley’s whistleblowers allege that in August 2020, FBI Headquarters “improperly discredit[ed] negative Hunter Biden information as disinformation and caused investigative activity to cease.” In fact, it was a scheme of top FBI officials. As Grassley explains:

    “the allegations provided to my office appear to indicate that there was a scheme in place among certain FBI officials to undermine derogatory information connected to Hunter Biden by falsely suggesting it was disinformation.”

    The context and timing is important, as this was leading up to the 2020 election. Who benefited from this scheme? Democrat candidate Joe Biden. And it appears the FBI’s scheme furthered the interests of Congressional Democrats. Here’s how that happened.

    On July 13, 2020, Democrat leaders – Chuck Schumer, Mark Warner, Nancy Pelosi, and Adam Schiff – sent this letter to the FBI alleging that “Congress was the subject of a foreign disinformation campaign.” The Democrats demanded that “the FBI provide a classified defensive briefing” on the issue of foreign disinformation, and that “the briefing draw on all-source intelligence information and analysis.” Parts of that letter were leaked to tie the Congressional Hunter Biden investigation to foreign disinformation.  

    Three days later, on July 16, 2020, Democrat Senators Gary Peters and Ron Wyden made their own demand of an FBI and intelligence community briefing related to purported foreign interference.

    According to Grassley, these Democrat efforts resulted in an unnecessary briefing from the FBI in August 2020 relating to “disinformation” – which was later leaked to the press to paint the Biden investigation “in a false light.” In other words, the FBI was more than willing to be used by the Democrats less than 3 months before the 2020 election.

    Then there’s also the issue of FBI Headquarters interfering in the Hunter Biden investigation. Grassley states:

    in September 2020, investigators from the same FBI HQ team were in communication with FBI agents responsible for the Hunter Biden information targeted by Auten’s assessment. The FBI HQ team’s investigators placed their findings with respect to whether reporting was disinformation in a restricted access sub-file reviewable only by the particular agents responsible for uncovering the specific information.

    The FBI Headquarters team “made findings” to whether certain reporting was disinformation – and then they limited access to those findings. This begs the question: what were those findings, and did they conflict with the popular narrative, falsely peddled by the Democrats and the media and former intelligence officials, that the Hunter Biden materials were disinformation?

    The FBI was reticent to share this information before the election. When then-Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe stated there was “no intelligence to support” allegations of Russian disinformation efforts tied to the Hunter Biden materials, the FBI responded they had “nothing to add at this time.” Of course, this is apparently now disproven. The FBI had something to add. They just didn’t want to share it with the American people.

    And there’s still more.

    In October 2020, the whistleblowers allege that “an avenue of additional derogatory Hunter Biden reporting was ordered closed at the direction of” FBI Agent Timothy Thibault.

    Who is Thibault? He is a partisan, anti-Trump FBI Agent from the Washington Field Office who shared derogatory social media posts about Attorney General Barr and retweeted Lincoln Project posts insulting President Trump. Thibault has since locked his Twitter account, which is highlighted with a Ukraine flag. You can make your own judgment on that.  

    Back to Thibault’s actions with respect to the Hunter Biden investigation. The whistleblowers further allege that Thibault suggested the Hunter Biden information was “at risk of disinformation,” although “all of the reporting was either verified or verifiable via criminal search warrants.” Thibault allegedly also violated FBI guidelines by ordering the matter closed without a valid reason. Thibault and other FBI officials then covered these tracks, attempting “to improperly mark the matter in FBI systems so that it could not be opened in the future.”

    Making matters worse – if that’s possible – we also learned from Grassley’s letter that FBI SIA ( Supervisory Intelligence Analyst) Brian Auten was handling aspects of the Hunter Biden investigation. Who is Brian Auten? He interviewed Igor Danchenko (Christopher Steele’s primary subsource), who now faces an upcoming trial with Special Counsel John Durham for lying to federal officials.

    We suspect that Auten covered-up or otherwise smothered Danchenko’s lies to protect the Trump/Russia investigation (and to thus also protect the FBI’s institutional interests). Our friend Stephen McIntyre – aka ClimateAudit – has focused on Auten in the past; here’s his Auten rabbit hole. The fact that Auten is in any way involved in the Hunter Biden investigation is not a good sign, and it indicates the FBI has failed to punish its most corrupt and incompetent employees.


    The letter from Grassley comes after CNN reporting on July 20 that:

    The federal investigation into Hunter Biden’s business activities is nearing a critical juncture as investigators weigh possible charges and prosecutors confront Justice Department guidelines to generally avoid bringing politically sensitive cases close to an election, according to people briefed on the matter.

    There are some clues in the CNN report that suggest members of Biden’s DOJ are trying to serve President Biden by protecting his son.

    First, current DOJ officials – including those at DOJ headquarters – have debated whether prosecution of Hunter Biden for tax and firearm charges should be put-off until after the 2022 midterms. But as CNN observes, federal prosecutors have brought politically-charged cases against Trump attorney Michael Cohen and Republican Congressman Chris Collins just before the 2018 election.

    Second, this suggests that there is at least some supervision of the Hunter Biden investigation by top-level DOJ officials appointed by Biden. CNN reports that the investigation has entered its final stages and that “prosecutors have narrowed their focus to tax and gun-related charges.”

    If Hunter Biden is indeed charged with those “narrow” crimes, it’s going to be essential to determine who made that call. After all, there is more than enough evidence to charge Hunter Biden with violating the Foreign Agent Registration Act. (Bijan Rafiekian, of the Flynn Intel Group, faced similar charges for far-less egregious conduct.) Recall previous New York Times reporting that:

    there has been debate within the Justice Department over whether the available evidence proves that Mr. Biden intended to violate FARA, which the government must prove in order to secure a criminal conviction.

    As we have observed, this misstates the law on FARA. One must ask whether the DOJ is making it intentionally difficult to prosecute Hunter Biden for his FARA violations and his schemes to enrich himself, and to manipulate his political connections, as he furthered the interests of his foreign clients.

    This gives us another question: who is making these prosecuting decisions – is it the career prosecutors, or is it Main Justice?

    If Hunter Biden escapes the FARA charges, or if he isn’t indicted before the upcoming elections, I think we can safely assume Main Justice is pulling some strings. And that’s a scandal in its own right.

    Subscribe here

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 23:30

  • These Are The Countries With The Most Active Volcanoes
    These Are The Countries With The Most Active Volcanoes

    Japan’s Sakurajima volcano, at the Southern tip of the country. erupted late Sunday, prompting evacuations and a Level 5 alert, the highest possible warning. 

    According to CNN, the volcano is one of the most active in the country and had previously erupted in January.

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, this makes the Sakurajima one of the 44 active volcanoes in the country that have erupted since 1950.

    Only Indonesia has more recently active volcanoes at 58.

    Infographic: The Countries With the Most Active Volcanoes | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The United States follow close behind Japan with a count of 42 active volcanoes due to the volcanic areas in and around Hawaii and Alaska. Two Latin American countries as well as two nations in the Pacific appear among the top 10. In Europe, Iceland has the most active volcanoes together with France, which has active volcanoes in its departments Guadalupe, Reunion and the Comoros as well as overseas country French Polynesia.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 23:10

  • FOMC Preview: Here's What The Fed Will Do Tomorrow
    FOMC Preview: Here’s What The Fed Will Do Tomorrow

    Submitted by Newsquawk

    SUMMARY: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike rates by 75bps on Wednesday, taking the target range for the Funds rate to 2.25-2.50%, a level considered neutral. There is no Summary of Economic Projections at this meeting thus attention will turn to any guidance the FOMC provides on future tightening increments. Current expectations, based on the current outlook, are for a 50bp move for September, before moving to 25bp moves in November and December to see a year-end rate of 3.25-3.50%, in line with market pricing. Nonetheless, the Fed will likely reiterate that any future rate decisions will depend upon their assessment of the economic outlook, particularly inflation. The latest June CPI report was hotter than expected which saw markets price in another 75bp move in July before accelerating to start pricing in over a 70% probability of a 100bp hike instead. However, pricing has now pared back in wake of several Fed speakers, including hawks Bullard and Waller, vocally supporting a 75bp hike in July while the latest UoM consumer inflation expectations also cooled for both the 1yr and 5yr horizons. Currently, markets only see a 10% chance of a 100bp move, as opposed to above 70% at the peak.

    EXPECTATIONS/GUIDANCE: The Fed is expected to hike rates by 75bps to 2.25-2.50%, according to 98/102 economists surveyed by Reuters between July 14-20th, although the remaining four still expect a 100bp move. However, markets are in favor of a 75bp hike with only a 10% chance of a 100bp move on Wednesday. Looking ahead, the majority of those surveyed expect the Fed to hike by 50bps in September, before slowing further to 25bp hikes in November and December leaving the Fed funds rate at 3.25-3.50% in December.

    The expectations on the Fed rate path through year-end are similar to market pricing, although looking ahead analysts expect rates to peak at 3.50-3.75% in February, before cutting to 3.00-3.25% in December 2023. This is at odds with market pricing which starts factoring in rate cuts earlier in 2023 as markets start to incorporate ongoing growth concerns and the impact of tighter policy with markets implying a rate of 2.75-3.00% in November 2023. Meanwhile, the median in the Fed’s June SEPs sees the terminal rate between 3.75-4.00% in 2023, before cutting to 3.25-3.50% in 2024.

    Therefore, there is a disconnect between markets and the Fed’s forecasts as the former prices in risk of a growth/employment slowdown later this year /early next year while Fed officials are conducting policy on the knowns: solid job growth and consumer spending that is fuelling consecutive increases in inflation. The Fed has said it will remain undeterred in its tightening path until inflation shows signs of returning to target, so to expect anything otherwise at the July FOMC appears unlikely.

    LANGUAGE/RECESSION: In the June meeting, the Fed changed its language to focus more on inflation, stating “The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective”, from the prior “with appropriate policy the Fed expects inflation to return to 2% target and the labour market to remain strong” therefore there will also be a focus on whether there are any further adjustments to this or whether it is maintained. With growth concerns mounting, the latest poll saw a 40% probability of a recession within the US over the coming year, and a 50% chance of a recession within two years, although the vast majority suggested it would be either mild or very mild. The latest meeting and minutes gave no mention of a potential recession, but the Fed has been dismissive of one in recent speeches saying it is not within their base case – something they will likely repeat, but it will be worth paying attention to given the mounting growth concerns to see if their view has changed, but given a continued strong labour market, the Fed will likely not be overly concerned.

    PRESS CONFERENCE: Given a lot of the focus will be on future guidance, Powell may leave it to the press conference to give clues on the increments of future rate hikes while he will also likely once again say it is too early to declare victory on inflation given the hot June CPI report. Powell will also likely repeat they want to see a series of declining monthly inflation prints and for inflation to be headed down, but the current data does not support this view. Therefore, Powell is expected to maintain the FOMC language that they will hike rates expeditiously to return inflation to target, although he will probably welcome the decline in UoM inflation expectations. Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics note by September the “Fed’s first pre-condition for slowing or stopping the pace of rate hikes will have been met, because the headline month-to-month CPI and PCE prints for July and August will be much lower than in the past couple months” and therefore expect the Fed to hike by no more than 50bps in September, in line with the consensus.

    Want more? Pro subscribers have access to FOMC previews from Goldman, Morgan Stanley, DB, UBS and more.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 22:50

  • Gavin Newsom Won't Save The Democrats
    Gavin Newsom Won’t Save The Democrats

    Authored by Joel Kotkin via UnHerd.com,

    Burdened with a decomposing President and a clearly overmatched Vice President, the Democrats are on the hunt for a saviour.

    For many in the party, Gavin Newsom, the 54-year-old perfectly coiffed Governor of California, seems like the perfect solution. No doubt, given his recent trolling of Florida’s Republican frontrunner Ron DeSantis, he feels the same.

    But Newsom’s ascendency faces some severe challenges.

    First, to get nominated, he must not only depose Biden, but also see off Vice President Kamala Harris. And she has three things Newsom lacks: she’s a woman, she’s black, and she has Asian Indian ancestry. Newsom, on the other hand, is white, was born into a well-connected San Francisco family, and is married to a film-maker and scion of a very wealthy Bay Area family.

    Perhaps more importantly, things have not been particularly good for the minority Californians he was voted in to look after. In the Golden State, African-Americans and Hispanics do far worse economically than their counterparts elsewhere in the country. Black residents, on a cost-of-living basis, make about as much as they do in Mississippi, and far less than in states such as Texas, Florida, or Arizona.

    Class may prove an even more glaring weakness. Newsom sees his state as a model, claiming California is “the envy of the world” and the great bastion of social justice. “Unlike the Washington plutocracy,” he boasts, “California isn’t satisfied serving a powerful few on one side of the velvet rope.” Yet he is the favourite son of what The Los Angeles Times described as “a coterie of San Francisco’s wealthiest families”, including the founders of the Gap clothing chain, the Pritzker’s and the Getty Family, who essentially adopted him, financed his business ventures, allegedly paid for his first lavish wedding, and helped launch his political career.

    Meanwhile, Newsom’s green and progressive pronouncements contrasted starkly with his passion for the good life. He has long lived in luxury, first in his native Marin, and now in Sacramento. This caused Newsom some embarrassment during the height of Covid when he was caught partying in ways that violated his own pandemic orders at the ultra-expensive, ultra-chic French Laundry in Napa and more recently on a lavish family vacation.

    When it comes to actual policymaking, Newsom is not much better. He backs an ineffective education system, controlled by his teacher union allies, that leaves almost three out of five California high schoolers unprepared for either college or a career. Meanwhile, his children attend one of the capital’s regions trendiest private schools. He is, in effect, an embodiment of the increasing feudal nature of modern California, which stands among the least egalitarian states in the nation and suffers the overall highest poverty rate in the country, according to the US Census Bureau. Inequality here now surpasses that of Mexico, and is closer to that of the Central American banana republics of Guatemala and Honduras than it is to developed countries such as Canada and Norway. California also suffers the widest gap between middle and upper-middle-income earners of any state, while driving up housing costs and narrowing opportunities for working-class people in blue-collar industries.

    So how has Newsom gotten to the point of Presidential viability? Much of the answer lies with California’s own bizarre politics, ruled by a one-party state dominated by public employees, tech oligarchs and green non-profits. These groups finance his campaigns and act as shock troops, along with the largely compliant media. There is no serious challenger to his re-election in November. State Senator Brian Dahle, a fellow GOP aspirant, is an obscure northeast California dairy farmer who failed to secure 20% of the primary vote.

    And yet Californians are not particularly enthusiastic about Newsom — his approval ratings stand at roughly 50%, while 60% are pessimistic about the state’s direction. He doesn’t even rank among the nation’s most popular Governors, but stands at about average. At least half of residents, particularly in the state’s interior, see California going in the wrong direction.

    Californians are not totally inert or stoned to care; they are discouraged. In Los Angeles, 10% plan to move out this year. Between 2014 and 2020, net domestic emigration from California grew from 46,000 to 242,000, according to US Census Bureau estimates. Yet Newsom’s answer to these concerns is not to create new opportunities for middle or working-class California but to expand what Marx called “the proletarian alms bag”. Rather than lower taxes or give incentives to business, Newsom simply expands the welfare state.

    Given the bumper revenues of last year, and the pathetic state of his opposition, Newsom’s gambit will likely pay off this year. But whether it can hold until the next election in 2024 remains less certain. The current tech bust and potential real estate decline could force the current surplus — which is in large part down to pandemic transfers from the federal government — over a “fiscal cliff” by next year, notes the state’s legislative analyst’s office. In other words, Newsom’s penchant to bribe voters may end up as successful as that of Juan Perón.

    Against a poorly financed unknown from a party associated with the widely detested Donald Trump, Newsom will likely cruise to victory in November. As the anointed Great White Hope, he may seem like the man to save the Democrats from their own follies and the legacy of the current disaster in the White House. He just has to pray that his own policy failures don’t catch up with him first.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 22:10

  • Tomorrow The Fed Hikes 75bps: What Happens Next Has Wall Street Hopelessly Split
    Tomorrow The Fed Hikes 75bps: What Happens Next Has Wall Street Hopelessly Split

    What the Fed says at Wednesday’s meeting is going to matter much more than what they do.

    That, according to Bloomberg’s Garfield Reynolds, will be the case even if Powell shocks us all by hiking less or more than the three-quarter point shift that’s been solidly priced in for most of the time since the June meet.

    But assuming policy makers meet those projections, then all of the focus is going to be on what guidance we get from the policy commitment statement and Chair Powell’s presser. Traders are betting the cash rate will be about 3.1% in a year’s time and 2.6% in two years, following rate cuts which are expected to start in Q1 2023. Making matters more complicated, the Fed’s WSJ mouthpiece, Nick Timiraos today published an article warning that the Fed could nuke the practice of forward guidance (similar to what the ECB did last week).

    That doesn’t leave the Fed a lot of room — the benchmark after today will be within a percentage point of the one-year forecast and a quarter point away from the two-year. As Reynolds concludes, “how Powell and his colleagues square that picture with their commitment to get inflation back down toward 2% will be fascinating.”

    Said otherwise, get the timing of the Fed pivot right and you will make a lot of money.

    Regular readers are aware of our thoughts on this topic: one month ago we wrote Fed Rate-Hikes To End This Year, Followed By 3% Of Rate-Cuts & QE, a view which has since been validated by Wall Street’s most accurate strategist, BofA’s Michael Hartnett, who forecast the Fed pivot to take place in November, while iconic former NY Fed analyst Marc Cabana also reinforced our view, predicting that his former coworkers at the Fed will end QT much sooner than expected.

    Still, confusion over what the Fed does next remains, and nowhere more so than among some of Wall Street’s top strategists who disagree over the impact of weaker economic data on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, what it’ll mean for stocks and, of course, when the Fed will pivot.

    Take Morgan Stanley’s uber-bear, Michael Wilson, who on Monday said it’s too early to expect the Fed to stop tightening its policy even as fears of a recession grow, suggesting that stocks have more room to fall before finding a bottom, somewhere around 3,000.

    Equity markets “may be trying to get ahead of the eventual pause by the Fed that is always a bullish signal,” Wilson said. “The problem this time is that the pause is likely to come too late” he added (his full comments can be found here).

    On the other hand, the always permabullish JPMorgan strategists – such as Marko Kolanovic – who have unabashedly been telling their clients to buy stocks every single week of 2022 – have now pivoted to the last recourse Hail Mary where bad news (the same bad news they never forecast) is now good news, and predict that inflation has peaked and will lead to an early Fed pivot thus improving the risk picture for equities in the second half.

    Contrary to Michael Wilson, who has been running laps around his far more insight-challenged JPMorgan peers, JPM strategist Mislav Matejka said in a note on Monday that challenging activity momentum and softer labor markets could open doors to a more balanced Fed policy, leading to a peak in the US dollar and inflation.

    For once, we agree with JPMorgan, which is actually correct this time if for all the wrong reasons: after all, unlike the largest and seemingly most clueless commercial bank, we have been saying since last December that the Fed will not only hike into a recession, but will be forced to cut rates – and resume QE – early. JPMorgan, on the other hand, never even contemplated a worst case outcome. And only now, that its year-end price target has become a laugh out loud joke, does the bank magically make the jump from a growing economy to a sharp slowdown, which forces the Fed to end hiking. Even first-year analysts will call that sloppy, embarrassing goalseeking.

    That said, JPMorgan is not alone: Generali senior economist Paolo Zanghieri said he expects the pace of rate hikes to slow after this week’s meeting. Still, concerns are growing that the Fed could already be too late in its attempt to tame inflation and avoid a US recession. More than 60% of the 1,343 respondents in the latest Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey said there’s a low or zero probability of the central bank reining in consumer-price pressures without causing an economic contraction.

    Jefferies LLC strategist Sean Darby said that while the economic slowdown is building, he expects the pressure on stocks from tighter monetary policy to ease in the second half of this year.

    “Unlike the words ‘recession’ and ‘hyperinflation’ which have garnered a lot of news headlines, ‘pivot’ has yet to capture the same interest,” he wrote in a note. “Nevertheless, if the shapes of the US yield curve and Fed futures curves are correct, then the headwind from rate hikes will decelerate somewhat as tightening enters the last part of the year.”

    Of course, the deeper the recession the Fed unleashes, the faster it will be forced to reverse and undo the damage… and Democrats will be riding Powell all the way there – that’s precisely what we discussed over the weekend in “Democrats Prepare To Unleash Hell On Fed Chair Powell For The Coming Recession.”

    The worst case, for bulls, is not if the US slides into a recession – after all that will prompt the Fed to panic and unleash the usual liquidity tsunami – it would be if Wilson is right: the Morgan Stanley strategist who has been among the most vocal bears on US stocks and correctly predicted this year’s selloff, said that even though inflation could indeed have peaked “from a rate of change standpoint,” the “demand destructive nature of high inflation that is presenting itself today will not easily disappear even if inflation declines sharply because prices are already out of reach in areas of the economy that are critical for the cycle to extend–i.e. housing, autos, food, gasoline and other necessities.”

    A rising number of analysts have also said that with inflation proving persistent at a four-decade high, it will take a recession and markedly higher joblessness, to ease price pressures significantly. It’s also why the Fed’s unspoken goal is precisely that: to tip the US into a moderate recession.

    JPMorgan’s Matejka said that another factor that improves the outlook for equities in the second half of the year is the changing reaction to earnings, where weaker results can start being seen as good news.

    Wilson again disagrees, saying that earnings estimates for S&P 500 firms are still too high and that the second quarter is likely to be the first of “several disappointing quarters before estimates finally trough.”  As such, stocks may have further to fall before hitting a bottom, he said. “Recent positive price action to some earnings cuts is unlikely to be the low for most stocks as it’s usually unwise to buy the first cuts when we are entering a major revision cycle,” Wilson wrote on Monday.

    Ultimately, Wilson sees the S&P dropping to 3,000 before the next bull market begins.

    Goldman, uncharacteristically for the permabullish bank, sides with Morgan Stanley. The bank’s strategist David Kostin sees pressure on S&P 500 revenues from a stronger dollar. The bank’s top-down model shows that a 10% appreciation in the trade-weighted greenback should reduce earnings-per-share by 2% to 3%, he wrote in a note on July 22. And earlier today, the bank’s Cecilia Mariotti wrote that it is still too early to bet on an early Fed pivot: at this stage, she wrote, it “would be wary in calling for a sustained pro-cyclical shift across assets as we think markets might be underestimating the risks of continued inflationary pressures, which might keep the central bank put far out of the money for longer.”

    Goldman – which has been catastrophically wrong in virtually all of its forecasts in the past two years – turning bearish? That may be just the tiebreaker we need to confirm that in just a few months the prevailing talk will be not how low the Fed can cut rates but whether it will follow the ECB into negative territory…

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 21:50

  • Pennsylvania Has A Youth-Crime Crisis
    Pennsylvania Has A Youth-Crime Crisis

    Authored by Michael Torres via RealClear Pennsylvania,

    A group of seven young Philadelphia teens were caught on surveillance camera beating a 73-year-old man named James Lambert Jr. to death with a traffic cone in June. The footage shows the teens giggling and recording the slow, brutal assault as if it were casual entertainment. “I just don’t know what’s going on in our city,” Lambert’s niece told Fox 29 Philadelphia. “Where were the parents?”

    (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

    Pennsylvania, like many states nationwide, is experiencing a youth-crime crisis. Data from the state’s Juvenile Court Judges’ Commission suggest that a major factor in crime among youth is family structure. More than 80 percent of every juvenile court disposition in 2021 involved a young person who lives in a broken home, without two married parents. Nearly 48 percent live with a single mother, while a mere 15.5 percent live with both parents. Similar trends hold up year after year after year.

    That’s consistent with what I’d expect, but it’s a striking number,” said Brad Wilcox, a senior fellow at the Institute for Family Studies and director of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia. “The strongest predictor for incarceration is the share of two-parent families in a neighborhood.” Wilcox pointed to research by Raj Chetty of Harvard University and the IFS that confirms that criminal behavior drops dramatically for youths who live with both parents and in neighborhoods with a high proportion of married adults.

    America’s young man problem is disproportionately concentrated among the millions of males who grew up without the benefit of a present biological father,” a recent IFS brief concluded. “The bottom line: both these men and the nation are paying a heavy price for the breakdown of the family.”

    Given these data, the research, and daily headlines of teenagers sacking convenience stores, pushing people onto train tracks, and committing armed robberiescarjackings, or worse, one would assume that lawmakers would be asking the same question as Lambert’s niece: Where are the parents? But state and local political leaders rarely do ask. Instead, they react in familiar ways. Republicans in Harrisburg consistently call for more policing and are trying to impeach Philadelphia’s progressive district attorney Larry Krasner. Democrats like state representative Darisha Parker of Northwest Philadelphia, meantime, repeatedly propose bans on so-called assault weapons and call for more mental-health administrators in schools, higher public school funding, and more funds for “boots-on-the-ground” organizations.

    Reverend Eileen Smith is the executive director of one of those organizations—the South Pittsburgh Coalition for Peace. She says that, while the city needs more police and desperately needs to get guns, especially illegally obtained ones, out of the hands of teenagers, a more fundamental problem is going unaddressed. “We are seeing fearless perpetrators in these young people,” she said in an interview. “We’re seeing young kids who have cold hearts and are not concerned with consequences of any kind.” When asked what could cause young people to be this way, Smith replied that “a lot of it is a spiritual problem, along with a lack of home life and a lack of love. They’re looking for love in all the wrong places, through gangs and online. This has caused a murderous trend among young people, and it’s got to be stopped.” But how?

    In a state in which approximately 33 percent of households with children are run by a single parent (in Philadelphia, the number surpasses 50 percent), stopping the spread of such maliciousness among young people is a daunting task. No amount of funding for school psychiatrists can make up for tens of thousands of absent parents.

    Christopher Winters, CEO of Olivet Boys and Girls Club in Berks County, Pennsylvania, believes there is a way. In March, a group of teenagers from various school districts in Berks County used social media to organize a massive fight in a rarely used playground in the city of Reading. According to police, the resulting brawl, which included dozens of teenagers, turned deadly when multiple individuals began firing guns, killing a high school student at the scene and injuring three others. “Not a single one of those kids . . . thought to pick up a phone and talk to somebody,” Winters said at a subsequent Reading City Council meeting. At that meeting, local leaders called for bolstering a community-wide response dubbed “hubs of hope” that now connects 75 community partners, including local businesses and nonprofits such as United Way and the Hispanic Center of Reading and Berks County. The hubs help organize events such as low-cost shoe sales and provide services like after-school activities and mentorship to young people. “There’s a lot of people throughout the community saying ‘we can’t stay in our silos anymore,’” Winters said in an interview. “We established hubs of hope so that our brick-and-mortar sites become cooperative places for kids to go and our family liaison officer can coordinate with other sites if we don’t have space.”

    Winters wants to see the state pass legislation providing more grants for after-school activities. Some government officials cite evidence that after-school programs and street-level intervention programs like South Pittsburgh Coalition for Peace reduce negative behaviors and bolster parents’ ability to work, among other benefits. But programs can only do much, as a report on the consequences of father absence by criminologist Jennifer Schwartz and published by the Department of Justice makes clear. “The direct effect of male capital on female and male violence suggests that a surplus of older males can mitigate, somewhat, the deleterious effects of father absence on violent offending,” Schwartz writes. But “father absence continues to exert significant, destructive effects on gender disaggregated violence rates.”

    Wilcox insists that public officials must first address the family crisis. “When you hear the phrase from folks like Hillary Clinton that it takes a village to raise a child, she’s certainly right,” Wilcox said. “But I’d amend that to: it takes a village of married people.”

    The importance of children having two married parents at home became a matter of national conversation after assistant secretary of labor Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s 1963 report on black family structure and poverty. In recent years, however, America’s political leaders have increasingly lost interest in bolstering family structure. “Our elites tend to minimize in their public pronouncements the need for dads, but when you look at their own lives, their dads are almost always very present,” Wilcox said. “The irony here is that our elites propose progressive public policies while at home living in traditional lifestyles, which includes having a married father at the house.”

    To be sure, bolstering community organizations that keep teenagers active after school, supporting street-level mentorship organizations, and providing adequate resources to police are worthy policy goals. But neither a well-funded after-school program nor a fully manned and effective police force could have kept those kids’ hearts from growing cold that June night in Philadelphia. Two-parent homes are the answer to this crisis. Politicians in both parties can no longer afford to ignore it.

    *  *  *

    Michael Torres is the deputy editor at RealClearPennsylvania. Follow him on Twitter @MindofTorresA version of this piece was originally published at City Journal.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 21:30

  • "We're Very Angry": Fire-Stricken Liberals Freak After CA 'Militia Group' Provides Disaster Aid
    “We’re Very Angry”: Fire-Stricken Liberals Freak After CA ‘Militia Group’ Provides Disaster Aid

    When the militia arrived in the small Sierra foothills town of Mariposa, California, to assist with evacuation efforts amid a fast-spreading wildfire, not all residents were pleased by the appearance of ordinary citizens dressed in military fatigues. 

    Over the weekend, about 150 California State Militia 2nd Regiment members, including 20 local ones and others from surrounding counties, assisted with evacuations efforts. The group also fed dozens of displaced households. 

    “We’re part of the community.

    “We’re watching our own community burn down, and even though a lot of the members that came to help, they’re spread out, we’re all part of the same unit, and this is what we do,” militia member Daniel Latner, who lives in Mariposa County, told The Mercury News.

    As of Tuesday, the wildfire, dubbed “Oak Fire,” burned 18,000 acres across Mariposa County and was only 26% contained. 

    Even as Oak Fire inched closer to the town of Mariposa, destroying 55 homes and other structures, some residents weren’t appreciative of militia support. 

    “The last thing I’m going to do is take a free tri-tip sandwich from a right-wing extremist group,” said one resident, who asked not to be named because she feared provoking “armed and dangerous” people.

    “We’re very angry that they would choose to come in at a time of real gravity to try to turn this into a political move,” said the woman, who works remotely and accused the group of “trying to recruit people in a disaster.”

    The Mariposa Sheriff’s Office on Sunday addressed public concerns about the militia supporting the community: 

    “We had received multiple notifications inquiring why we had ‘activated that militia,'” the office said in a Facebook post.

    “The militia has not been activated or requested to act for any purpose by the Sheriff’s Office or any agency working the Oak Fire.”

    “We are not unsupportive of community groups helping those affected by the Oak Fire … they are acting on their own courteous accord,” the post continued.

    “We appreciate their efforts and any … efforts of other private groups or entities helping our community.”

    In a county where about 40% of the people voted Democrat in the last presidential election and nearly 60% for the Republican Party, not all residents are reluctant to receive help from militia members.

    It appears that liberals would rather burn, starve, or freeze than take evacuation assistance from someone on the other side of the political aisle… Tolerance and acceptance indeed

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 21:10

  • Iran's Oil Revenues Soar By 580% As Crude Prices Rally
    Iran’s Oil Revenues Soar By 580% As Crude Prices Rally

    By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

    Iran’s revenues from exports of oil and condensate surged by 580% during the first four months of the current Iranian year that begins on March 21, Iranian Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance, Seyyed Ehsan Khandouzi, said on Tuesday.   

    Between March 21 and July 21, international crude oil prices have largely held above $100 per barrel after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions on Russian oil exports upended global trade flows.

    “Due to the increase in oil exports and our new budget’s currency conversion rate, we saw a 580% increase in the treasury’s income from the export of oil and condensate in the first four months of this year,” the Iranian finance minister was quoted as saying by local news agency IRNA.

    Overall, Iran’s budget income jumped by 48% in March-July compared to the same period of 2021, while government expenditures rose by 16%, the minister added.

    “The government was focused on this issue to be able to earn a more stable income. This means that compensating the budget deficit was on the agenda of the government and it was realized in the first 4 months of this year,” the minister said.

    Iran’s 12-month inflation rate hit 40% in July, Iranian statistics showed last week. Prices of goods have soared since the government removed some subsidies earlier this year.  

    Despite the diplomatic impasse over the nuclear deal, Iran has been preparing to rejoin the global oil market. The country has boosted production, as well as exports to its main market, China. If a new deal is reached between Iran and the world powers, the flow of Iranian oil abroad could increase by between 500,000 bpd and 1 million bpd, according to analysts.  

    China has been the main outlet for Iranian crude oil exports since the U.S. re-imposed sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s oil industry in 2018 when then-President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the so-called Iranian nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).  

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 20:50

  • China Hosts Its First Major Consumer Product Conference Since Covid Lockdowns
    China Hosts Its First Major Consumer Product Conference Since Covid Lockdowns

    It looks like there’s finally some signs of normalcy emerging in China after months of additional lockdowns. That is, at least gauged by the number of massive product expos the country is planning on holding this year. 

    The country kicked off the 2022 China International Consumer Products Expo this week, according to Nikkei. The conference was held in the capital of southern Hainan province, the report says, and featured over 2,800 brands.

    That’s more than double the number of brands that presented last year. 

    60 different countries were represented by brands like Ferrari and Coach and around 40,00 different buyers and industry professionals were expected to attend the event, which opens to the public next week. Fancl Group, Dolce & Gabbana and Dell were also in attendance. 

    Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha made opening comments for the event, saying they were looking forward to helping China re-open and boost their economy. The Prime Minister said: “(The fair) will help promote closer cooperation in terms of trade, services and supply chains.”

    As Nikkei notes, China posted its weakest quarterly growth in two years as a result of its recent Covid lockdowns. Retail sales were down 4.6% in Q2 for the country. 

    Mark Tanner, managing director at Shanghai-based marketing consultancy China Skinny, added: “We are seeing more saving, changes in buying behavior. In certain beverage categories there has been more bulk buying as people plan for potential lockdowns.”

    Shao Min, a representative for Sinopharm talked about the steps the company had taken as a result of shops being closed for several months: “We have made some adjustments to mitigate those challenges by beefing up our social media sales channel.”

    Industries like alcohol and cosmetics were heavily in focus at the event. Kenji Shimizu, director-general of the Japan External Trade Organization’s office in southern Guangzhou concluded: “As those markets expand and diversify, we would like to promote brands by small and medium Japanese enterprises that market body-friendly ingredients to Chinese consumers.”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 20:30

  • High Gas Prices At Pump Alter Driving Habits, AAA Finds
    High Gas Prices At Pump Alter Driving Habits, AAA Finds

    Soaring gasoline prices at the pump motivated consumers to go on a buyers’ strike, according to a new survey by auto club AAA. 

    In June, 64% of the 1,002 respondents altered their driving habits due to months of soaring gasoline and diesel prices at the pump. Of these, 88% said they reduced driving altogether, 74% combined errands, and more than half reduced restaurant and shopping visits. Many respondents postponed travel this summer. 

    The survey’s findings outline precisely what we said in late June when we first noticed gasoline demand destruction emerged as lower- and middle-income households felt the pinch of energy, food, and shelter inflation.

    The DoE’s official implied gasoline demand data shows the weakest demand since the COVID lockdowns (on a seasonal basis) and weakest overall since 2013…

    Slowing demand topped West Texas Intermediate oil futures prices at $122 a barrel on June 8. Gasoline prices at the pump have also slumped for 41 days, including the single most significant weekly drop in nearly 14 years. However, at $4.355 a gallon, prices are still 38% higher than a year ago and 2x from COVID lows. 

    Since wages haven’t kept up with inflation, creating worsening negative real wage growth, it might not be enough to get drivers back on the roads. Also, the latest data from Bank of America’s aggregated credit and debit card flows show consumers are tapped out after maxing out credit cards. 

    OANDA market analyst Jeffrey Halley pointed out that while Brent outperforms due to tight physical markets, “WTI, on the other hand, is a domestic benchmark, meaning that US recession nerves seem to be more heavily weighing on its price.”

    The spread between WTI to Brent continued to widen. The US benchmark was more than $9 a barrel cheaper than Brent on Friday, the most since early March. 

    In the meantime, the Federal Reserve will meet Wednesday and likely raise interest rates by three-fourths of a percentage point following June’s hot consumer print. Aggressive tightening by the Fed has sparked concern the economy could roll into recession. 

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 19:50

  • Ranchers Are Selling Off Their Cattle In Unprecedented Numbers Due To The Drought, And That Has Enormous Implications For 2023
    Ranchers Are Selling Off Their Cattle In Unprecedented Numbers Due To The Drought, And That Has Enormous Implications For 2023

    Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

    Thanks to the horrific drought which is absolutely devastating ranching in the Southwest, ranchers are now in “panic mode” and are selling off their cattle at an unprecedented rate.  In fact, some are choosing to sell off their entire herds because they feel like they don’t have any other options.  In recent days, seemingly endless lines of trailers waiting to drop off cattle for auction have gone viral all over social media.  Everybody is talking about how they have never seen anything like this before, and if the drought in the Southwest persists the lines could soon get even longer.  In the short-term, this is going to help to stabilize meat prices.  But in the long-term the size of the U.S. cattle herd will steadily become much smaller, and that has very serious implications for our ability to feed ourselves in 2023 and beyond.

    North Texas has become the epicenter for this rapidly growing crisis.  Thanks to the drought, there simply is not enough grass and not enough water, and so many ranchers have been forced to make some really tough decisions

    North Texas ranchers are selling off cattle by the thousands as grass and water disappear during an expanding summer drought.

    Videos spread on social media Saturday and Sunday, showing trucks and trailers lined up for miles outside of livestock markets.

    At the Decatur Livestock Market, owner Kimberly Irwin said trucks were stacked a mile in each direction, eventually unloading more than 2,600 animals.

    For many of these ranchers, it is imperative that they get something for their animals while they still can.

    According to the USDA, the vast majority of the pasture and range land in the region is now in either “poor” or “very poor” condition

    Grass has stopped growing with no rain and 100 degree temperatures. Grasshoppers have reportedly been destroying what’s available in some counties. Stock ponds are now starting to run low on water as well.

    The USDA released a report Monday showing 83% of pasture and range land is now considered to be in poor to very poor condition.

    Normally, many cattle ranchers would feed hay to their cattle under such circumstances, but the price of hay has absolutely skyrocketed over the past year…

    Prices for hay, which is widely used to feed cattle, were 56% higher in April than in 2021, according to a June report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Cattle producers are estimated to have lost money the past two months, according to a cost-and-return analysis from Iowa State University.

    So now even if you can find hay for sale it is usually so expensive that it is simply not economical.  Without any other options that make sense, some cattle ranchers in Texas have actually decided to go ahead and sell their entire herds

    Central Texas ranchers have little hay to feed their cows due to drought conditions. That means some ranchers are now selling their entire herds, including older ones who might not thrive in the drier and hot conditions.

    “Some of these ranchers are just totally out of grass, totally out of water,” Uptmore said. “Their backs are against the wall and they don’t have any other option.”

    The good news is that a flood of beef is coming into the supply chain right now.

    And that will certainly help keep short-term prices stable.

    But what will we do next year and beyond?

    According to Bloomberg, many ranchers that are showing up at these auctions are literally in “panic mode” because they are so eager to sell off their animals…

    Ranchers in top cattle state Texas can’t sell their herds fast enough with 100-degree Fahrenheit temperatures making it too expensive to sustain animals.

    Costs for feed, fertilizer and fuel have been soaring. There’s also a lack of water in the state, and little hay. That’s resulting in a firehouse of cattle getting auctioned at Texas sale barns. Emory Livestock Auction Inc., just over an hour’s drive east from Dallas, is seeing nearly quadruple normal rates with ranchers in “panic mode,” said Jack Robinson, an 83-year-old auctioneer.

    Normally ranchers would wait until their cattle have reached a desired weight before finally selling them off.

    Unfortunately, this relentless drought is forcing many ranchers to “sell smaller”

    Cattle rancher Anthony Vybiral, in the business since the 90s, says drought conditions are forcing ranchers like him to “sell smaller.”

    During a normal season, calves weigh up to 600 pounds, Vyviral said. Now, the rancher said, “some of them have been weighing 375 to 450 and they’ve been selling them.”

    At the end of the day, ranching is a business.

    These guys are trying to make whatever money that they can under the circumstances.

    Of course most Americans never even think about where the meat that they eat comes from, but we should.

    Because as Texas rancher Jarrod Montford has pointed out, we depend on a very small sliver of the population to feed all the rest of us…

    “1.6, 1.7% of the population feeds the rest. It’s not how bad are we at the end of the day,” Monfort said. “It’s the fact that if we don’t survive, our nation fails,” said Montford.

    He is right.

    We need our farmers and our ranchers, and we don’t appreciate them nearly enough.

    Looking ahead, there is reason to be extremely concerned.

    The national cattle herd has been getting smaller for quite a while, and now that trend threatens to greatly accelerate

    The nation’s cow herd has been shrinking for the past two years, but this summer’s drought is sending much of the breeding herd to the processing plant. That will cut into calf numbers for the next two to three years.

    What we desperately need is a break in the weather.

    So let us hope for cooler temperatures and lots of rain.

    Unfortunately, this next week is supposed to be a sizzler, and that will especially be true in the Southwest

    About 85% of the US population — or 273 million people — could see high temperatures above 90 degrees over the next week. And about 55 million people could see high temperatures at or above 100 degrees over the next seven days.

    On Saturday, “sizzling temperatures” will take hold of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains with temperatures forecast to surpass 100 degrees, the weather prediction center said.

    Daytime temperatures could top 100 degrees across much of the Southwest, with some areas exceeding 110 degrees, according to the center.

    Of course all of this is happening within the context of the worst global food crisis in decades.

    Famines are already erupting all over the world, and global food supplies are getting tighter with each passing day.

    We were warned that this was coming, but most people didn’t want to listen.

    Now a day of reckoning is nearly upon us.

    I would definitely encourage you to stock up on meat in the weeks ahead while it is still relatively cheap, because the outlook for 2023 and beyond is definitely not promising.

    *  *  *

    It is finally here! Michael’s new book entitled “7 Year Apocalypse” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 19:30

  • Recent Fauci Claims Dismantled By Former CDC Director – And Fauci's Own Words
    Recent Fauci Claims Dismantled By Former CDC Director – And Fauci’s Own Words

    Dr. Anthony Fauci has been doing quite the tap-dance of late.

    To review – as the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, he funded risky gain-of-function research at a Chinese lab aimed at making bat coronavirus transmissible to humans.

    Then, when a human-infecting bat coronavirus broke out down the street from the lab he funded, Fauci performed extensive damage control over the virus’s origins – before taking a direct role in setting disastrous public policy which included economy-killing lockdowns that led to trillions in inflationary stimulus (which he now denies).

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Related:

    Now that we’re caught up – Fauci recently claims to have had an “open mind” about the possibility of a lab-leak, though he still says it’s the least likely explanation for all of the above.

    It looks very much like this was a natural occurrence, but you keep an open mind,” he told Fox News in a Friday interview.

    Fauci repeated himself in an interview with The Hill on Monday.

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    Former CDC Director Robert Redfield is calling BS:

    As the Epoch Times‘ Jack Phillips notes:

    When asked about Fauci’s recent comments on Monday, Redfield told Fox News that he still suspects COVID-19 emerged “from the laboratory” and “had to be educated in the laboratory to gain the efficient human-to-human transmission capability that it has.”

    “There’s very little evidence, if you really want to be critical, to support” the natural emergence theory, he said. The former Trump administration official then compared COVID-19 to prior coronaviruses such as Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that emerged about 10 years ago, saying that neither virus had the same transmission capacity as COVID-19.

    “So it’s really exceptional that this virus is one of the most infectious viruses for man. And I still argue that’s because it was educated how to infect human tissue,” Redfield told Fox News.

    Laboratory

    The same Wuhan laboratory, he added, was the subject of a 2014 report amid claims that researchers performed research on bat-borne viruses that could impact humans.

    “I’m disappointed in the [National Institutes of Health] for not leading an objective evaluation from the beginning,” Redfield told the outlet. “I think it really is antithetical to the science where they took a very strong position that people like myself who are somehow conspiratorial just because we have a different scientific hypothesis.”

    *  *  *

    Natural immunity

    In a second bit of furious tap-dancing, Fauci completely deflected when he was asked why natural immunity from previous COVID-19 infections wasn’t recognized as a legitimate protection when he was involved in setting public policy that included lockdowns and vaccine passports.

    The topic was so woefully ignored that experts urged the Biden administration to formally recognize natural immunity – which Fauci now says they were ‘always aware‘ of.

    And yet, watch how he spins it now:

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    And what did Fauci have to say about natural immunity when Pfizer and others didn’t have an expensive vaccine with unproven long-term efficacy?

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 19:10

  • Layoffs Hit Labs As COVID-19 Testing Dwindles
    Layoffs Hit Labs As COVID-19 Testing Dwindles

    By Paige Twenter of Becker Hospital Review

    As at-home COVID-19 tests rise in popularity, U.S. laboratories are slimming their workforce and decreasing their capacity for processing PCR tests, The Wall Street Journal reported July 24. 

    U.S. labs can process about 62 million COVID-19 tests a month, which is half of their capacity levels reported in March, according to consulting firm Health Catalysts Group cited in the Journal report. 

    Because of diminishing government funding and less demand, COVID-19 test lab SummerBio laid off 100 workers, and CueHealth, which makes at-home molecular tests, laid off 170 people, about 10 percent of its workforce, according to the Journal

    SummerBio, a company that provides PCR testing for COVID-19, said it’s switching to “standby-mode” because of a “dramatic reduction” in demand for lab-based testing, according to a July 25 press release. 

    Though the rise in at-home tests makes federal case counts more difficult to manage, labs are simply working with what they can. 

    “It’s been a trade-off, but it’s a trade-off that we’ve been accepting,” Wilbur Lam, MD, PhD, a biomedical engineering professor at Emory University who helped federal officials review COVID-19 tests, told the Journal

    While rapid at-home tests have become more prevalent, manufacturers of those tests, such as IHealth Labs and QuidelOrtho, are also reducing their staff and decreasing production levels. 

    Health Catalysts Group estimates that production capability for rapid tests was 462 million in March, which has since fallen to 320 million.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 18:50

  • China Tried To Build Spy Network Inside The Fed, Threatened To Kidnap Fed Economist
    China Tried To Build Spy Network Inside The Fed, Threatened To Kidnap Fed Economist

    China tried to place “a network of informants inside the Federal Reserve system” over the course of a decade, according to a stunning new article out this morning from the Wall Street Journal

    Over 10 years, Fed employees were offered contracts with Chinese talent recruitment programs, often including cash payments, in exchange for providing information on the U.S. economy and interest rate changes, according to an investigation by Republican staff members of the Senate’s Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.

    The country even threatened to imprison a Fed economist on a trip to Shanghai as apart of their efforts. The economist was detained in 2019, the report says. WSJ notes that it is unclear whether any “sensitive information was compromised”, though we’re not sure exactly how “sensitive” Fed information is to begin with. 

    The investigation called it “a sustained effort by China, over more than a decade, to gain influence over the Federal Reserve and a failure by the Federal Reserve to combat this threat effectively.”

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke out against the report’s findings: “Because we understand that some actors aim to exploit any vulnerabilities, our processes, controls, and technology are robust and updated regularly. We respectfully reject any suggestions to the contrary.”

    “We take seriously any violations of these robust information security policies,” he continued, according to the report

    A former Fed investigation identified 13 people of interest beginning in 2015. The Congressional investigation relied “heavily” on the Fed’s findings for their report. One economist in the Fed system, who was fired for violating rules, was found to be close to a former employee who was alleged to have attempted to recruit members for the espionage network. 

    That former “expressed a desire to maintain an inside information sharing relationship” and had ties to Chinese government-backed talent recruitment programs. 

    Another individual once gave “economic modeling code to a Chinese university with ties to the People’s Bank of China,” the report says. Though, the Fed is wrong so often, maybe it was a disinformation campaign on our part?

    Yet another employee “attempted to transfer large volumes of data from the Fed to an external site on at least two occasions,” the Journal wrote. 

    In a letter to Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, the committee’s top Republican, Jerome Powell wrote that he would be concerned about “any supportable allegation of wrongdoing, whatever the source,” before adding: “In contrast, we are deeply troubled by what we believe to be the report’s unfair, unsubstantiated, and unverified insinuations about particular staff members.”

    Portman replied that he hoped the investigation “wakes the Fed up to the broad threat from China to our monetary policy.”

    “The risk is clear,” he wrote. 

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    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 18:44

  • Ukraine Wants Citi, JPMorgan And HSBC Prosecuted For 'War Crimes': Zelensky Aide
    Ukraine Wants Citi, JPMorgan And HSBC Prosecuted For ‘War Crimes’: Zelensky Aide

    Ukraine wants major US and European banks prosecuted for “committing war crimes” because they finance companies that trade oil with Russia, according to CNBC, citing President Volodomyr Zelensky’s top economic aide, Oleg Ustenko.

    Everybody who is financing these war criminals, who are doing these terrible things in Ukraine, are also committing war crimes in our logic,” Ustenko told the network on Tuesday, calling out banks such as JPMorgan, HSBC and Citi.

    When asked if the banks should be prosecuted for war crimes, Ustenko replied “Exactly.”

    Ustenko said Zelenskyy believes these banks should be held accountable for prolonging the conflict and the war on Ukraine.

    His comments came in response to a FT report last week, which said that Ukraine’s government wrote to the chiefs of U.S. and European banks — such as Jamie Dimon from JPMorgan and Noel Quinn from HSBC — urging them to cut ties with the groups that are trading Russian oil. -CNBC

    According to letters seen by the FT, Ustenko asked the banks to cut off financing to any businesses that deal in Russian oil, and to divest from Gazprom and Rosneft, Russia’s primary state-owned oil and gas companies.

    The letters directly accuse Citigroup and Credit Agricole of “prolonging” the war by extending financing to companies that ship Russian oil, and warns that said banks won’t be allowed to take part in Ukraine’s reconstruction when the war is over.

    Ustenko told CNBC that the Zelensky administration is gathering evidence to send to the International Criminal Court.

    “We are collecting all these information” on companies that are financing Russia, he said. “Our Ministry of Justice and our security service of Ukraine are collecting. And then later, this is going to be passed to the ICC.”

    This isn’t the first time that Ukraine has gone after Western companies for having business dealings with Russia.

    In March, the government was highly critical of big oil companies for still doing business with Russia, and warned that some of those firms could find themselves on the wrong side of history.

    Ustenko said the war has taken a significant toll on Ukraine’s economy since Russia’s invasion began on Feb. 24. -CNBC

    “Currently, we are expecting that the Ukrainian economy is going to show a decline on the level of around 35-40%, which is a huge decline,” he said, saying the decrease is due to the fact that nearly 50% of businesses “are not operational now or not able to operate at full capacity.”

    “When the economy is declining, then the budget revenues are decreased. Again the reason for that is the Russian invasion”

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 18:30

  • Russia’s New Gas Deals With Iran Are A Threat To The West
    Russia’s New Gas Deals With Iran Are A Threat To The West

    By Simon Watkins of Oilprice.com

    Russian President, Vladimir Putin, arrived in Tehran last week for the second time since he ordered the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Just before his arrival, Russia’s state gas giant, Gazprom, signed a US$40 billion memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) that is part of a wide-ranging agenda of increased cooperation between Russia and Iran. It builds upon ideas discussed in January between Putin and Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, and the visit early in June of Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, both analysed in full by OilPrice.com, and is crucial to the current global gas crisis.

    Among other deals contained in the MoU, Gazprom has pledged its full assistance to the NIOC in the US$10 billion development of the Kish and North Pars gas fields with a view to their producing more than 10 million cubic metres of gas per day. The MoU also contains details of a US$15 billion project to increase pressure in the supergiant South Pars gas field on the maritime border between Iran and Qatar. Gazprom will additionally be involved in the completion of various liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and the construction of gas export pipelines, according to Iranian news sources. This is designed by the Kremlin to give it even more control over future gas supplies coming out of Iran that might have found a home in southern Europe initially, before being transported north, to help alleviate the current gas supply crunch in major European countries. By also becoming more deeply involved in the huge South Pars gas field Russia has also positioned itself to disrupt LNG supplies coming out of Qatar and destined for Europe. The South Pars field is a 3,700 square kilometre area of the world’s largest gas reservoir that holds at least 1,800 trillion cubic feet of gas and at least 50 billion barrels of natural gas condensates, with the remaining 6,000 square kilometre North Field site belonging to Qatar. This takes on even broader geopolitical importance, given the ongoing interest of Russian and Iranian sponsor, China, in the perennially-controversial Phase 11 of the South Pars gas site.

    Gazprom’s focus on expanding Iran’s LNG capabilities comes at exactly the time when dramatically increasing LNG supplies is vital for European states to compensate for shortfalls in gas supplies resulting from bans on Russian gas imports. It is plainly identifiable as a tried-and-tested core KGB strategy that relies on a combination of gradually increasing pressure on an enemy and then just waiting for as long as it takes for him to give up as often being an excellent way of achieving victory. The Kremlin knows that from the very start of talk about banning gas imports from Russia, Germany – the de facto leader of the European Union (EU) and its executive branch, the European Commission (EC) – did not want to cut itself off from Russian gas imports. Indeed, Germany’s response for some time after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February appeared much less concerned with halting oil and gas imports from Russia and much more concerned with working out how best to continue to pay for them so that Russia would not stop them due to lack of payment. This followed the 31 March decree signed by Putin that required EU buyers to pay in roubles for Russian gas via a new currency conversion mechanism or risk having supplies suspended. Then, in a directive circulated to all EU member states on 21 April, the EC said that: “It appears possible [to pay for Russian gas after the adoption of the new decree without being in conflict with EU law].” The EC added: “EU companies can ask their Russian counterparts to fulfil their contractual obligations in the same manner as before the adoption of the decree, i.e. by depositing the due amount in euros or dollars.” The EC also stated that existing EU sanctions against Russia do not prohibit engagement with Gazprom or Gazprombank, beyond the refinancing prohibitions relating to the bank. “Likewise, they do not prohibit opening an account with Gazprombank, [although] such engagement or account should not lead to the violation of other prohibitions.”

    It should be remembered that Germany’s extreme unwillingness to play any part in a European ban on imports of Russian energy, particularly gas, occurred even before the reality hit home of precisely how such a ban would cripple its economic growth and impact voters during the winter months, which are now fast approaching. Inflation across European Union states is rising sharply – averaging 8.6 percent across the Union – whilst economic growth was just 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in the first quarter of this year, with only one month of that period reflecting conditions after Russia invaded Ukraine. In Germany – for so long a global and EU economic powerhouse, driven for years by the effective devaluation of its mighty Deutschmark into the much less mighty euro – economic growth in Q1 was just 0.2 percent q-o-q, and in the previous quarter the country had seen a very rare contraction, of minus 0.3 percent q-o-q. Despite this anaemic growth rate, spiraling inflation prompted the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates across the Union for the first time in 11 years last week, thus choking off prospects for economic growth further. There have also been warnings in Germany, from local authorities, of the need for households and businesses to cut energy usage going into the winter, and the EU’s proposal that member countries cut gas use by 15 percent to prepare for possible supply cuts from Russia saw fierce opposition last week from at least 12 of the 27 member states. On the other side of the coin, Russia is earning more from energy exports now than it was before it invaded Ukraine, the rouble is at an eight-year high, and Moscow’s exports of gas account for only two percent per cent of Russia’s GDP. In short, Russia can afford to wait but the EU cannot. 

    By creating a counterpoint to Qatari LNG supplies, then, and by also creating the very real prospect of disrupting them at source or in transit, as Russia or one of its proxies could easily do, the Kremlin is looking to turn the screw a little further. A happy adjunct of Russia’s plan to finally unleash the massive LNG potential of Iran – after all, Iran has the second largest gas reserves in the world, after Russia, and plans have been in place for it to exploit this for years – is that it also energises the debate about the desirability of bringing Iran back into the fold of world diplomacy by resuscitating a version of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or, colloquially, ‘the nuclear deal’). Germany (the ‘+1’ in the ‘P5+1’ group of nations who agreed the original JCPOA, along with Russia and China, and France, the UK, and the U.S.) was never in favour of annulling the deal, and nor was France, with Russia and China also, of course, vehemently against the idea of cancelling it. As analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil markets, by seeking to drive another wedge between the de facto leader of the EU – Germany – and the U.S., Russia’s real goal is to add further pressure in its 70-year attempts to destroy the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which Putin personally holds responsible for collapse in 1991 of the USSR. Putin stated in 2005 that: “The collapse of the Soviet Union was the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the century. For the Russian people, it became a real drama. Tens of millions of our citizens and countrymen found themselves outside Russian territory. The epidemic of disintegration also spread to Russia itself.’ It is this idea, above all else, that prompted him to order Russia to invade Ukraine in February. 

    For Putin, then, as also analysed in depth in my new book on the global oil markets, Russia’s oil and gas resources have always been a key mechanism through which Russia can: firstly, keep the energy-needy Former Soviet Union (FSU) states now in the EU firmly in line; secondly, ensure that the principal EU states (especially Germany) do not seek to interfere too much in any of Russia’s dealings with the remaining non-EU countries; thirdly, leverage, whenever and wherever possible existing disagreements between the EU and the U.S. to critically undermine the core NATO doctrine of ‘collective defence’ against attack; and fourthly, use the prospect of given or withheld energy supplies to project its power into ‘chaotic states’ – Russia, will, where possible and when it is in its interests, create the chaos first and then project its own power into that destabilised and unfocused state.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 18:10

  • 'China Wins' If Pelosi Doesn't Go To Taiwan: McConnell
    ‘China Wins’ If Pelosi Doesn’t Go To Taiwan: McConnell

    Nancy Pelosi has painted herself into quite the corner regarding her upcoming trip to Taiwan.

    If she cancels the trip over Beijing’s objections, she’ll have “handed China sort of a victory of sorts,” according to a Tuesday statement by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

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    This comes as Biden administration officials bristle over growing tensions between Beijing and Taipei – telling the The New York Times they’re worried that China could move militarily against the island territory in as little as one-and-a-half years.

    This might come, the report notes, by China “trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait, through which U.S. naval ships regularly pass.” Admin officials are further described as fearful and anxious that if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi goes through with a proposed trip to Taiwan in August, it could spark miscalculation or conflict leading to a full-blown crisis.

    Source: White House image

    Chinese state media has been pushing a “military response” should Pelosi fly to Taipei next month, though official statements out of the foreign ministry have stopped short of being this specific, but have threatened the slightly more vague “forceful measures” if she follows through with it.

    The timing is also sensitive given Chinese domestic politics, as the Times underscores, “U.S. officials see a greater risk of conflict and miscalculation over Ms. Pelosi’s trip as President Xi Jinping of China and other Communist Party leaders prepare in the coming weeks for an important political meeting in which Mr. Xi is expected to extend his rule.”

    Senator Chris Coons of Delaware, who advises the US administration on Taiwan-related issues, said that “one school of thought is that the lesson is ‘go early and go strong’ before there is time to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses” – in reference to parallels of the Ukraine crisis.

    Coons added: “And we may be heading to an earlier confrontation — more a squeeze than an invasion — than we thought.”

    Offering a US military perspective chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley last week warned of “significantly more and noticeably more aggressive” behavior by the Chinese PLA military in the Asia-Pacific region. And on Tuesday, the US military said:

    ONLY MATTER OF TIME BEFORE MAJOR INCIDENT OR ACCIDENT IF CHINA CONTINUES IRRESPONSIBLE BEHAVIOR IN SEA, AIR- PENTAGON OFFICIAL

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    Though Biden days ago said that the Pentagon didn’t think a Pelosi trip to Taiwan was “a good idea” at this time, the White House kept mum when pressed on the issue in a Monday briefing:

    “The administration routinely provides members of Congress with information and context for potential travel, including geopolitical and security considerations,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said, without responding directly to Pelosi’s possible plans. “Members of Congress will make their own decisions.”

    Ironically, as we noted earlier, Pelosi appears to be receiving most vocal support from Republican China hawks, with the latest being Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse. “Speaker Pelosi should go to Taiwan and President Biden should make it abundantly clear to Chairman Xi that there’s not a damn thing the Chinese Communist Party can do about it,” he said, weighing in on the trip. “No more feebleness and self-deterrence,” he emphasized.

    As Patrick Buchannan notes

    If Pelosi postpones or cancels the visit, it will be seen as a U.S. climb-down in the face of Chinese indignation and protest, and an affront to our friends in Taiwan.

    Around the Asia-Pacific rim, the word will be, “The Americans, faced with China’s firmness, backed down.”

    But if the visit goes forward, China is publicly committed to respond. Either way, relations between our countries will likely suffer, and perhaps seriously, if the Chinese opt for a military response to a Pelosi visit.

    However this collision plays out, the U.S. is paying the price for having adopted, decades ago, a policy of building up China in the hope and expectation that Beijing would evolve into a benign and friendly rival and competitor of the United States.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 17:50

  • Ron Paul: Ugly COVID Lies
    Ron Paul: Ugly COVID Lies

    Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    After two years of unprecedented government tyranny in the name of fighting a virus, the prime instigators of this infamy are walking free, writing books, and openly pretending they never said the things they clearly said over and over.

    Take Trump’s White House Covid response coordinator Deborah Birx, for example. She was, as the Brownstone Institute’s Jeffrey Tucker points out in a recent article, the principal architect of the disastrous “lockdown” policy that destroyed more lives than Covid itself. Birx knew that locking a country down in response to a virus was a radical move that would never be endorsed.

    So, as she admits in her new book, she lied about it.

    She sold the White House on the out-of-thin-air “fifteen days to slow the spread” all the while knowing there was no evidence it would do any such thing. As she wrote in her new book, Silent Invasion, “I didn’t have the numbers in front of me yet to make the case for extending it longer, but I had two weeks to get them.”

    She was playing for time with no evidence. As it turns out, she was also destroying the lives of millions of Americans. The hysteria she created led to countless businesses destroyed, countless suicides, major depressions, drug and alcohol addictions. It led to countless deaths due to delays in treatment for other diseases. It may turn out to be the most deadly mistake in medical history.

    As she revealed in her book, she actually wanted to isolate every single person in the United States! Writing about how many people would be allowed to gather, she said: “If I pushed for zero (which was actually what I wanted and what was required), this would have been interpreted as a ‘lockdown’—the perception we were all working so hard to avoid.”

    She wanted to prevent even two people from meeting. How is it possible that someone like this came to gain so much power over our lives? One virus and we suddenly become Communist China?

    Last week in a Fox News interview she again revealed the extent of her treachery. After months of relentlessly demanding that all Americans get the Covid shots, she revealed that the “vaccines” were not vaccines at all!

    “I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection,” she told Fox.

    “And I think we overplayed the vaccines. And it made people then worry that it’s not going to protect against severe disease and hospitalization.”

    So when did she know this?

    Did she know it when she told ABC in late 2020 that “this is one of the most highly-effective vaccines we have in our infectious disease arsenal. And so that’s why I’m very enthusiastic about the vaccine”?

    If she knew all along that the “vaccines” were not vaccines, why didn’t she tell us? Because, as she admits in her book, she believes it’s just fine to lie to people in order to get them to do what she wants.

    She admits that she employed “subterfuge” against her boss – President Donald Trump – to implement Covid policies he opposed. So it should be no surprise that she lied to the American people about the efficacy of the Covid shots.

    The big question now, after what appears to be a tsunami of vaccine-related injuries, is will anyone be forced to pay for the lies and subterfuge? Will anyone be held to account for the lives lost for the arrogance of the Birxes and Faucis of the world?

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 17:30

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Today’s News 26th July 2022

  • How Mario Draghi Broke Italy
    How Mario Draghi Broke Italy

    Authored by Thomas Fazi via UnHerd.com,

    Mario Draghi’s defenestration has left the Italian — and indeed international — establishment reeling in horror. This is not surprising. When he was nominated as Italy’s prime minister at the beginning of last year, Europe’s political and economic elites welcomed his arrival as a miracle. Virtually every party in the Italian parliament — including the two formerly “populist” parties that won the elections in 2018, the Five Star Movement and the League — offered their support. The tone of the discussion was captured well by the powerful governor of the Campania region, Vincenzo De Luca (PD), who compared Draghi to “Christ” himself.

    Everyone agreed: a Draghi government would be a blessing for the country, a final opportunity to redeem its sins and “make Italy great again”. Draghi, they said, simply by virtue of his “charisma”, “competence”, “intelligence” and “international clout”, would keep bond markets at bay, enact much-needed reforms, and relaunch Italy’s stagnant economy.

    Alas, reality hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations: Draghi leaves behind a country in tatters. The latest European Commission macroeconomic forecast predicted that Italy will experience the slowest economic growth in the bloc next year, at just 0.9%, owing to a decline in consumer spending due to rising prices and lower business investment — a result of rising borrowing and energy costs, as well as disruptions in the supply of Russian gas.

    Italy is also experiencing one of the fastest-growing inflation rates in Europe — which is currently at 8.6%, the highest level in more than three decades. Interest rates on Italian government bonds have also been steadily climbing ever since Draghi came to power, rising four-fold under his watch; today they stand at the highest level in almost a decade.

    And this “polycrisis” has taken its toll on Italian society: 5.6 million Italians — almost 10% of the population, including 1.4 million minors — currently live in absolute poverty, the highest level on record. Many of these are in work, and that number is bound to increase as real wages in Italy continue to fall at the highest pace in the bloc. Meanwhile, almost 100,000 small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are at risk of insolvency — a 2% increase compared to last year.

    So much for “Super Mario”, then. Of course, one could argue that other countries are experiencing similar problems, but it would be a mistake to let Draghi off the hook. He has been one of the staunchest supporters of the measures that led to this situation, having been a driving force in pushing for tough EU sanctions against Moscow — sanctions that are crippling Europe’s economies, while leaving Russia largely unscathed.

    Draghi even boasted about the bold measures adopted by Italy to wean the country off Russian gas — the result being that Italy is now the country that pays the highest wholesale electricity prices in the entire EU. The absurdity of these policies becomes apparent when we consider his attempt to reduce Italy’s dependence on Russian gas by reviving several coal-fired power plants — coal that Italy largely imports from Russia.

    Worse still, Draghi did little or nothing to shield wage-earners, households and small businesses from the impact of these policies. Indeed, the few “structural” measures enacted by his government have all been aimed at promoting privatisation, liberalisation, deregulation and fiscal consolidation — such as opening up for privatisation those few public services that had remained outside of the scope of the market, further “flexibilising” labour, putting private beaches up for public tender for the first time in decades, or attempting to expand taxi services to include ride-sharing operators like Uber, sparking massive protests.

    For anyone who has an inkling of Draghi’s ideology, this is hardly surprising. As I’ve argued before, Mario Draghi is the bodily incarnation of “neoliberalism”. Neither is it surprising that those policies haven’t delivered, given that the EU’s neoliberal logic, based upon privatisation, fiscal austerity and wage compression — which Draghi has played a crucial role in implementing since the early Nineties — is the main reason Italy is in such a mess to begin with. Draghi also further strengthened the EU’s stranglehold over the Italian economy by relentlessly peddling the narrative that Italy desperately needed the European Covid recovery funds to kickstart its economy, and that in order to access those funds it needed to diligently implement the reforms demanded by Brussels.

    Yet in macroeconomic terms, the funds in question are a pittance, and nowhere close to what would be needed to have a meaningful impact on Italy’s economy. But they come with very strict conditionalities. This is ultimately what the EU’s Next Generation EU “recovery fund” is all about: increasing Brussels’s control over the budgetary policies of member states and strengthening the EU’s regime of technocratic and authoritarian control. And who better than Draghi could be trusted with locking such measures in place? As he himself noted, the “reform path” laid down by his government meant that “we have created the conditions for the [EU recovery] work to continue, regardless of who is [in government]” — thus ensuring that future governments wouldn’t stray from the path of righteousness.

    Draghi, however, doesn’t just leave behind him a scorched economy but also a deeply fractured and divided society. He is the man responsible for devising the most punitive, discriminatory and segregational mass vaccination policies in the West, which not only excluded millions of unvaccinated people — including children — from social life, by extending vaccine passports to practically all public spaces, but also restricted many people from working. He also helped make the unvaccinated the target of institutionally sanctioned hate speech, such as when he infamously claimed: “You don’t get vaccinated, you get sick, you die. Or you kill.”

    All this might offer an indication of why a recent poll showed that 50% of Italians weren’t happy with the government’s work. And yet, in spite of these rather unimpressive results, when Draghi initially announced his intention to resign, the Italian establishment went into an apoplectic fit. In what will go down in history as one of the most pathetic demonstrations of the sycophantic conformism of Italian society, almost every professional category you can think of rushed to launch their own appeal begging Draghi to stay on — not only wealthy businessmen, as was to be expected, but also doctors, pharmacists, nurses, mayorsuniversity deansNGOsprogressive intellectuals and even the CGIL, the country’s largest union.

    Even more pitiably, the Italian media gave massive coverage to several “pro-Draghi demonstrations” — numbering not more than a few dozen people. Perhaps most comically, one of the country’s largest news agencies, Adnkronoseven spoke of how several homeless people had come out to show their support for Draghi. One of these was quoted saying: “Draghi is making the difference. Italy has regained prestige and credibility thanks to him. As a homeless person I can testify to the fact that there’s a greater attention to us now and that’s thanks to Draghi.”

    The Western international establishment also threw all its weight behind Draghi. Everyone from the Financial Times to the Guardian to the EU Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni came out to explain what a tragedy losing Draghi would be for Italy — and indeed for Europe as a whole. Gentiloni went so far as saying that “a perfect storm” would sweep over the country if Draghi were to leave; while the Guardian limited itself to instructing Italy’s MPs that Draghi “should stay for now”. The New York Times unironically claimed that Draghi’s departure would put an end to the “brief golden period” he ushered in for Italy. Talk of foreign actors meddling in Italy’s affairs.

    So why, in spite of such massive pressures, did three parties effectively pull the plug on his government last week? Part of the explanation lies in the extent to which Draghi had managed to alienate parties such as the Five Star Movement and the League — refusing to engage with them on hardly any of his government’s policies, or to acknowledge even the most timid criticism. On more than one occasion, Draghi made very clear what he considered to be parliament’s role: that of rubber-stamping the decisions taken by government. This is evident also in Draghi’s abuse of the instrument of the confidence vote.

    In his Senate speech last week, Draghi was even more explicit: after saying that he had decided to reconsider his resignation because “that is what the people want”, he essentially told Parliament that he was willing to stay on as premier only so long as the parties would agree not to interfere with any of the government’s future decisions. For many of those present in Parliament, the arrogance and megalomania of Draghi’s speech went a step too far — and moreover some say that Berlusconi was waiting for the right moment to avenge the time he was unseated by Draghi, in 2011, when the latter was president of the ECB.

    However, one shouldn’t overstate the importance of Parliament’s anti-Draghi revolt. Ultimately, Draghi did little more than spell out an uncomfortable truth to the parties: “You have no real power, just accept it.” But that is a truth the political parties aren’t ready to accept. Ultimately, they are unwilling to face the fundamental contradiction between the country’s formal institutional architecture — that of a parliamentary democracy — and what we may call its “actually existing” institutional architecture, in which Parliament and by definition the political parties have almost no power whatsoever, because government itself, in the context of the eurozone, has little if any economic autonomy. The parties know this but are unwilling to admit it (to themselves but most importantly to voters).

    This leaves them in a state of permanent cognitive dissonance, leading to what we may call “the political cycle of the external constraint”. As in “normal” countries, parties vie for consensus on the basis of different electoral platforms — and as often happens, the parties promising “change” happen to win. However, unlike in “normal” countries, the parties that get into government soon find out that they lack the “normal” instruments of economic policy necessary to really change anything in socio-economic terms. In fact, they have little choice but to go along with what Brussels and Frankfurt say, and if they don’t play ball the ECB is always ready to turn up the heat. At that point, if the government doesn’t back down, the ECB will engineer a full-blown financial crisis (think Italy in 2011 or Greece in 2015) — which usually leads the political parties to turn to EU-backed technocrats to fix a problem the EU created in the first place.

    Yet even if the government yields, the growing tension between the requirements of the external constraint and the demands of citizens, which the parties lack the tools to remedy, leads them to turn to technocrats to resolve the impasse, by having them implement the measures the parties don’t want to take responsibility for. Then, at a certain point, usually as new elections approach, political parties feel the need to re-legitimise themselves in the eyes of voters and thus  put the technocratic genie back into the lamp — until the next crisis, which sets a new cycle in motion.

    This is largely the story of what happened between 2018 and Draghi’s ouster, as the Five Star Movement and League went from anti-EU populism to Draghi over the course of just a few years. And the next elections will set in motion a new cycle, possibly hailed by a centre-right Giorgia Meloni-led government. But as the social and economic situation continues to worsen, these cycles are also bound to grow shorter and shorter. A future centre-right government — “populist” or not — would have little or no ability to resolve the crises left behind by Draghi. As always, the shots will be called in Brussels and Frankfurt.

    With the launch of its recent Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), the ECB has provided itself with a tool that technically allows it to do “whatever it takes” to close euro spreads, thus potentially averting future financial crises. Such intervention, however, is conditional on compliance with the EU’s fiscal framework and with the “reforms” outlined in each country’s “recovery fund” plans — already locked in place by Draghi. But these will do nothing to end the unfolding social and economic crisis; in fact, they are certain to worsen it. In other words, the next Italian government, if it wants to stay financially afloat, will have little choice but to follow the economic diktats of the EU — or else. In such a context, how long before the last remnants of democratic legitimacy in countries such as Italy break down? And what then?

    Ultimately, the next euro crisis is much more likely to break out on the streets of Europe than on financial markets.

    Tyler Durden
    Tue, 07/26/2022 – 02:00

  • CIA Director "Very Proud" Of Afghanistan Analysis That Led To Disastrous Withdrawal
    CIA Director “Very Proud” Of Afghanistan Analysis That Led To Disastrous Withdrawal

    Authored by Thomas Lifson via AmericanThinker.com,

    Close enough for government work’ has taken on a whole new dimension in the Biden era with the remarks reportedly delivered by CIA Director William Burns Wednesday at an Aspen Security Forum discussion. Jerry Dunleavy of the Washington Examiner has the story.

    CIA Director William Burns said he is “very proud” of the agency’s analysis in Afghanistan in 2021 despite being blindsided by the swift collapse of the Afghan government and failing to predict how quickly the Taliban would take Kabul. (snip)

    Burns said Wednesday during an Aspen Security Forum discussion that he was “very proud … of the analysis, with all of its imperfections, that we tried to provide to policymakers over the six months leading up to the withdrawal.”

    The CIA director prefaced this by admitting the agency had not predicted the Taliban would take over the country as fast as they did and that “all of us have lessons to learn from experiences like that.” He suggested that the CIA had at least gotten it less wrong than other parts of the U.S. government.

    “As the president has said publicly, none of us anticipated that the Afghan government was going to flee as quickly as it did, that the Afghan military was going to collapse as fast as it did,” Burns said.

    “Having said that, I think CIA at least was always on the more pessimistic end of the spectrum in terms of highlighting, you know, over the course of the spring and the summer, the obvious ways in which the Taliban were advancing rapidly and how this was hollowing out in many ways, not just the political leadership but also the military.”

    Burns shared the CIA’s assessment in July 2021, when he did not say he believed the country would fall in half a year, let alone in less than a month.

    “Less wrong” than other parts of the government is not exactly a standard of excellence.

    How can one be very proud of being “less wrong”?

    Official Portrait of William Burns

    In order to learn from failuresand the withdrawal from Afghanistan was a gigantic failure, resulting in American and Afghani deaths and the abandonment of scores of billions of dollars of military equipment making the Taliban the best-armed terrorists in the worldone first must admit failure.

    Then, analyze what were the sources of error and take steps to change practices so as to avoid the same errors in the future.

    It doesn’t sound like any of that is in prospect.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 23:25

  • China June FX Outflows Are The 2nd Highest Since The Covid Crash
    China June FX Outflows Are The 2nd Highest Since The Covid Crash

    With China’s economy slowing to levels not seen this century…

    … and its financial system in danger of disintegration should the housing crash escalate further (which is why in a sharp reversal to months of non-action, overnight Beijing launched a multi-billion fund to support struggling developers), many have been wondering how long will local oligarchs wait before (quietly) pulling their money out of the country.

    Well, according to the most accurate gauge of FX flows, June saw another month of net outflows of around US$9BN, in comparison to inflows of US$2bn in May, the biggest outflow since February and the second biggest outflow in two years going back to the Covid crash.

    Cross-border RMB flows suggest net payments of RMB from onshore to offshore, which was consistent with the continued bond outflows.

    Here are the main highlights:

    1. In June, there were US $4BN in net inflows via onshore outright spot transactions, and US $2BN inflow via freshly entered and canceled forward transactions. Another SAFE dataset on “cross-border RMB flows” shows that domestic banks made net RMB payments of $15BN from onshore to offshore. A preferred FX flow measure therefore suggests in total $9BN outflows in June, in comparison with $2BN inflows in May.

    2. Current account saw small net inflows: Goods trade surplus translated into $25BN inflows in June, vs $8BN in May. Here Goldman notes that while goods trade surplus rose to a record-high level of $98BN in June, the conversion ratio of goods trade surplus remained low at 26%, vs an average of 39% in the prior six months. Previous analyses suggested the conversion rate tends to decline when CNY weakens and interest rate spreads narrow. According to SAFE, corporates’ FX hedging ratio increased to 26% in 1H 2022, 4% higher than the same period last year. Services trade deficit remained muted at $6BN. Income and transfers account showed an outflow of $16BN in June, partially on seasonality.

    3. Portfolio investment showed outflows in June. Stock Connect data suggests more northbound buying of equities (relative to southbound buying) in the month, and thus on a net basis, translates into around $4BN inflows through Stock Connect in June. China Central Depository & Clearing and Shanghai Clearing House data suggest foreigners continued to reduce their holding of RMB bonds by US$13.9bn in June, vs US$16.3bn outflows in May.

    4. Official FX reserves (released earlier in the month) fell to US$3,071bn in June from US$3,128bn in May. Estimating for FX valuation effects would have lowered FX reserves by $34BN in June, so after adjusting for FX valuation effects, FX reserves declined by US$23bn in June. Note that decline in bond and equity prices might have also contributed to the overall decline in reported FX reserves through asset price valuation effect, although SAFE does not release the exact decomposition of China’s FX reserves.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 23:05

  • Chinese Investors Shouldn't Be Allowed To Buy US Properties: DeSantis
    Chinese Investors Shouldn’t Be Allowed To Buy US Properties: DeSantis

    Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warned about China’s malign influence in the Sunshine State after reports showed that Chinese investors have spent billions of dollars buying U.S. farmland and other real estate.

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit held at the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on July 22, 2022. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

    Calling China the United States’s “No. 1 adversary,” DeSantis told Fox News on July 23 that companies linked to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) shouldn’t be allowed to buy U.S. properties.

    I don’t think they should be able to do it. I think the problem is these companies have ties to the CCP, and it’s not always apparent on the face of whatever a company is doing—but I think it’s a huge problem,” he said.

    Foreign buyers from China spent $6.1 billion, more than from any other foreign country, on U.S. homes from April 2021 to March,  according to a recent report from the National Association of Realtors (pdf).

    Chinese buyers spent an average of more than $1 million per transaction—the highest average among foreign purchases—and up from the $710,400 average from the year before. California was the top destination for their purchases with 31 percent, followed by New York (10 percent), Indiana (7 percent), Florida (7 percent), Oklahoma (5 percent), and Missouri (5 percent).

    The report also pointed out that 58 percent of Chinese buyers made all-cash purchases, the third highest behind Canadians (69 percent) and Colombians (65 percent).

    An increasing amount of U.S. farmland is controlled by Chinese buyers. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Chinese investors controlled 13,720 acres in the United States as of the end of 2010. That amount increased to 194,179 acres through Dec. 31, 2020.

    DeSantis also said he has taken steps to address some of China’s influence in Florida.

    I’ve signed legislation to crack down on undue influence from rogue states, including the CCP,” he said. “So for example, we ban Confucius Institutes in the state of Florida—they try to go in higher education, and they try to spread the propaganda.”

    The legislation banning China’s Beijing-funded Confucius Institutes was signed by DeSantis in June 2021, along with other legislation that made stealing trade secrets a third-degree felony punishable by up to five years in prison.

    Florida has “the most robust protections against CCP influence that any state’s done so far,” DeSantis told The Epoch Times at the time.

    The two pieces of legislation went into effect on July 1, 2021.

    Florida last closed a Confucius Institute in September 2019. According to the National Association of Scholars, an education advocacy group, there were a total of 18 Confucius Institutes in the United States as of June 21.

    China’s then-Vice President (now Chinese leader) Xi Jinping unveils a plaque at the opening of Australia’s first Chinese Medicine Confucius Institute at the RMIT University in Melbourne on June 20, 2010. (William West/AFP/Getty Images)

    In January, DeSantis took another step to counter the CCP when he announced the Florida Job Growth Grand Fund had awarded nearly $10 million to Osceola County and Valencia College to support semiconductor and other advanced technology manufacturing.

    “The strategic investments we are making today will help bring microchip and semiconductor manufacturing back to our state at a time when the supply chains are more fragile than ever,” he said in a statement announcing the investment. “Certainly, we cannot allow this important industry to become captive by the Chinese Communist Party.

    In March, DeSantis also unveiled proposed legislation to push back against China. One of the proposals would require state agencies, political subdivisions, and public institutions of higher education to report any gift of $50,000 or more from a foreign government.

    He told Fox News that he aimed to address the problem of his state’s pension funds next.

    “We’re also probably going to do legislation next legislative session about our pension investments, with things that may be linked to the CCP,” he said. “We don’t necessarily have a lot of it, but we want to make sure that we’re cutting ties so that we’re not funding our No. 1 adversary.”

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 22:45

  • US Navy Cancels Participation In "Essential" Annual Black Sea Drills, Citing Ukraine War
    US Navy Cancels Participation In “Essential” Annual Black Sea Drills, Citing Ukraine War

    The United States has canceled its participation in major annual naval drills which were set to take place on the Black Sea, citing the dangerous regional situation amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    The Sea Breeze 2022 exercise which takes place in July every year was “canceled due to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine,” according to a US Navy statement given to Newsweek Monday. However, in reality it is only the US military’s full participation in Sea Breeze that was suspended – not the entirety of the exercise itself.

    Prior Sea Breeze 2021 maneuvers, via AP

    The Navy had previously called the war games “essential” during last year’s drills involving 32 warships, including a large US missile destroyer. Ironically the US Navy cast last year’s drill as crucial for deterring potential Russian aggression against Ukraine. 

    But at the time Moscow had cited as part of its war justification NATO’s military infrastructure expansion into Ukraine. It offered as evidence the increase in military exercises involving Ukraine’s navy and its more powerful Western allies.

    While Washington clearly suspended its participation out of concern that it could create a scenario of inadvertent hostile military exchange with Russia, the Sea Breeze 2022 drills are actually still happening but in smaller, scaled-down form, and also geographically further away from Ukraine’s coast.

    Identifying the Bulgarian Black Sea port cities of Varna and Burgas as playing host to the games, Newsweek describes:

    The drills will include 24 vessels, five planes, and two helicopters, according to the Bulgarian News Agency. Breeze 2022 is the first large-scale NATO exercise since Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine began.

    No U.S. ships will be involved; though U.S. personnel and aircraft will. Navy P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance planes from Task Force 67 based in Sicily, Italy, and personnel from Task Force 68 in Spain, will take part, the 6th Fleet said last week.

    Breeze will involve 1,390 personnel from 10 NATO nations—including Albania, Belgium, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Turkey.

    So while having officially pulled out of the drills that it typically leads, the US is still giving reconnaissance support from a base in Italy during what Newsweek called “a slimmed-down alternative” of the drills.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Meanwhile, another source of tension between Russia and the aforementioned Western military allies remains transit into the Black Sea, after during the opening months of the war Turkey warned against the West or any country sending military vessels through the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits, citing that it would enforce the Montreux Convention of 1936.

    Last week, a shaky deal was finalized that will theoretically allow Ukraine to export its blocked grain exports; however, it’s unclear how soon or even if it will materialize. Some NATO countries have mulled putting in place an international naval coalition to open up a ‘humanitarian’ shipping corridor on the Black Sea – a plan which has thus far been shelved as it would likely ensure head-on conflict with Russia.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 22:25

  • What To Watch For As China's Politburo Meets
    What To Watch For As China’s Politburo Meets

    By Ye Xie Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

    China’s Politburo meeting for July, which usually takes place at the end of the month, sets the agenda for the rest of the year.

    While the meeting of the top 25 policy makers rarely delves into specifics, it could provide some guidance on a more-realistic growth target, a continuation of Covid policies and limited support for the struggling housing market. The bottom line is that no major policy overhaul is expected.

    Here are some key areas to look for.  

    • GDP target. The 5.5% GDP target, which was set in March before the latest Covid outbreaks, has long been viewed as unreachable. After the economy grew only 2.5% in the first half, China needs to deliver a growth rate of more than 8% for the second half to hit the target. Earlier this month, Premier Li Keqiang hinted that a lower growth rate is “acceptable” as long as employment and prices are stable. A number of economists, including Bloomberg Economics, have penciled in a growth rate of about 3%. An official nod from the Politburo of a more realistic target won’t be a total surprise.

    • Stimulus plans. A lower GDP target means any large-scale stimulus is not in the cards. Standard Chartered’s economists, including Ding Shuang, expect Beijing to bring forward 1.5 trillion yuan of next year’s local special-bond quota to support investment. Citigroup’s economist Xiangrong Xu and Xiaowen Jin said the Politburo could give hints about other options, including special bonds from the central government, more profit transfer from the PBOC to the Ministry of Finance, or a general budget revision.

    • Covid policies. Few expect Beijing to shift away from the Zero Covid policy before President Xi seeks a third term later this year. Still, Beijing may be laying some groundwork for the eventual exit. Over the weekend, China made a rare revelation that all of its leaders received locally-made Covid-19 shots. The move aims to demonstrate the safety and effectiveness of domestic vaccines. The disclosure and renewed campaigns to vaccinate the elderly in multiple cities suggest that “the government may have decided to put in place the conditions required for an eventual exit from COVID-zero,” wrote Standard Chartered’s Ding.

    • Housing market. Property investment fell by 5.4% in the first half of the year, on track for the first annual decline. While the Politburo meeting will most likely reiterate the mantra of “housing is for living, not for speculation,” it could soften that stance by mentioning plans to stabilize property prices and support reasonable home demand, according to Larry Hu from Macquarie.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 22:05

  • FBI Sabotaged Hunter Biden Evidence To Derail Investigation: Whistleblowers
    FBI Sabotaged Hunter Biden Evidence To Derail Investigation: Whistleblowers

    Several FBI whistleblowers say that the agency’s probe into Hunter Biden was internally sabotaged during the 2020 election in order to derail the investigation, after agents wrongfully deemed verified evidence as “disinformation” to ignore.

    According to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), agents investigating Hunter “opened an assessment which was used by an FBI headquarters team to improperly discredit negative Hunter Biden information as disinformation and caused investigative activity to cease,” adding that his office received “a significant number of protected communications from highly credible whistleblowers” regarding the investigation.

    Grassley added that “verified and verifiable derogatory information on Hunter Biden was falsely labeled as disinformation,” according to the Washington Examiner.

    FBI supervisory intelligence agent Brian Auten opened in August 2020 the assessment that was later used by the agency, according to the disclosures. One of the whistleblowers claimed the FBI assistant special agent in charge of the Washington field office, Timothy Thibault, shut down a line of inquiry into Hunter Biden in October 2020 despite some of the details being known to be true at the time.

    A whistleblower also said Thibault “ordered closed” an “avenue of additional derogatory Hunter Biden reporting,” according to Grassley, even though “all of the reporting was either verified or verifiable via criminal search warrants.” The senator said Thibault “ordered the matter closed without providing a valid reason as required” and that FBI officials “subsequently attempted to improperly mark the matter in FBI systems so that it could not be opened in the future,” according to the disclosures.

    The whistleblowers say investigators from FBI headquarters were “in communication with FBI agents responsible for the Hunter Biden information targeted by Mr. Auten’s assessment,” and that their findings on whether the claims were in fact disinformation were placed “in a restricted access sub-file” in September 2020, according to Grassley, who added that the disclosures “appear to indicate that there was a scheme in place among certain FBI officials to undermine derogatory information connected to Hunter Biden by falsely suggesting it was disinformation.

    Grassley summarized the new allegations in a Monday letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland and FBI Director Christopher Wray.

    The Examiner notes that FBI agent Auten was involved in the Trump-Russia investigation, including interviewing Christopher Steele’s primary source, Igor Danchenko.

    According to Grassley, the “volume and consistency” of the allegations regarding the handling of the Hunter Biden probe “substantiate their credibility.”

    The assessment by Auten in August 2020 was opened the same month Grassley and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) received a briefing from the FBI “that purportedly related to our Biden investigation and a briefing for which the contents were later leaked in order to paint the investigation in a false light,” Grassley said. The senator said Senate Democrats asked for a briefing in July 2020 “from the very same FBI HQ team that discredited the derogatory Hunter Biden information.”

    The FBI inquiry into Hunter Biden reportedly began as a tax investigation, then expanded into a scrutiny of potential money-laundering and foreign lobbying; the DOJ has declined to hand over investigative details. -Washington Examiner

    Thibault, the FBI agent who allegedly quashed the Hunter probe, may have violated the Hatch act in 2020 after making posts on social media which were critical of then-president Donald Trump and former AG William Barr.

    Also notable – Hunter had the numbers of several FBI agents in his iCloud contacts.

    Joe Biden, top Democrats, and virtually the entire mainstream media dismissed the Hunter Biden laptop story as Russian disinformation when bombshell allegations from the New York Post emerged weeks before the 2020 election. In March 2021, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a report claiming that figures tied to Russian intelligence promoted “misleading or unsubstantiated allegations” about Joe Biden.

    Grassley to Garland and Wra… by Washington Examiner

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 21:45

  • Cryptos Slide After Reports Coinbase Faces SEC Probe
    Cryptos Slide After Reports Coinbase Faces SEC Probe

    Bloomberg is reporting that, according to three people familiar with the matter, Coinbase is facing a US probe into whether it improperly let Americans trade digital assets that should have been registered as securities.

    This is the latest in a series of escalating rhetoric between the US’ largest crypto exchange and various regulators.

    Tl; dr…

    Coinbase to Regulators: Tell us what is a security.

    SEC to Coinbase: We’ll probe you for selling them.

    The latest escalation – that has not been confirmed by the SEC or Coinbase – follows the SEC charging three men, including one of the company’s former employees, of insider-trading (leaking information about which tokens to buy just before they were listed on the platform). Specifically, the SEC did not charge Coinbase with any wrongdoing.

    However, it appears that was not enough as various regulators vie for control of the crypto markets, and the SEC said it had determined that nine of the dozens of digital tokens the men traded were securities – including seven the exchange says it lists.

    In what seems like a pre-emptive strike by Coinbase’s Counsel, the company issued a blog post entitled “Coinbase does not list securities. End of story.” (emphasis ours)

    We cooperated with the SEC’s investigation into the wrongdoing charged by the DOJ today.

    But instead of having a dialogue with us about the seven assets on our platform, the SEC jumped directly to litigation. The SEC’s charges put a spotlight on an important problem: the US doesn’t have a clear or workable regulatory framework for digital asset securities.

    And instead of crafting tailored rules in an inclusive and transparent way, the SEC is relying on these types of one-off enforcement actions to try to bring all digital assets into its jurisdiction, even those assets that are not securities.

    Just this morning (and with no prior knowledge of the timing of the charges discussed), Coinbase filed a petition for rule making with the SEC calling for actual rule making so the crypto securities market has a chance to develop. We worry that today’s charges suggest the SEC has little interest in this most fundamental role of regulators.

    But in the absence of a concrete digital asset securities regulatory framework from the SEC, we remain confident that Coinbase’s rigorous review process keeps securities off Coinbase’s platform. We remain eager to share our perspective with the SEC, especially through a formal rule-making process desperately needed.

    As Bloomberg notes, Gensler has long argued that many cryptocurrencies fall under the regulator’s jurisdiction and that firms offering them should register with his agency.

    However, the SEC mostly hasn’t said specifically which coins are securities, and exchanges decide whether to list an asset.

    When the headlines hit Bloomberg – “Coinbase Faces SEC Investigation Over Cryptocurrency Listings” – tyhat was all the early Asia traders needed (especially given US equity fitures were lower driven by WMT’s ugly earnings cut) and cryptos tumbled with Bitcoin dropping back below $21k…

    On a side note – while on the topic of regulators doing their jobs – The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that a bipartisan bill to regulate stablecoins will now be delayed and will not be completed until after the Midterms. Outstanding issues include standards around so-called custodial wallets, one of the people said. Treasury officials pushed for wallet provisions that Republicans were uncomfortable with, the person said.

    No matter what – the war between Coinbase and its ‘regulators’ is only just beginning.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 21:18

  • 42 Injured In Japan As Menacing Monkeys Chimp Out
    42 Injured In Japan As Menacing Monkeys Chimp Out

    Authorities in Japan’s Yamaguchi city are stepping up measures to confront marauding monkeys that have injured at least 42 people in recent weeks, AFP reports.

    Screenshots via YouTube

    To combat the monkey menace (specifically Japanese Macaques), local authorities are turning to tranquilizer guns, after traps they set failed to snare any of the pesky primates. Both adults and children report suffering wounds including scratches and bites.

    “All of Yamaguchi city is surrounded by mountains and it’s not rare to see monkeys,” said one city official from the agricultural department, adding “But it’s rare to see this many attacks in a short period of time.”

    “Initially only children and women were attacked. Recently elderly people and adult men have been targeted too,” the official added.

    The city isn’t even sure if the attacks are the work of multiple monkeys or a single aggressive individual. The intruders have in some cases entered by sliding open screen doors, or entering through windows.

    City officials and police have been patrolling the area since the first attacks around July 8, but have yet to snare any monkeys.

    The story has made headlines in Japan in recent weeks, with local residents reporting regular invasions.

    “I heard crying coming from the ground floor, so I hurried down,” one local told the Mainichi Shimbun Daily. “Then I saw a monkey hunching over my child.

    They better get a handle on this, and fast… as we all know what happens when simians tilt the balance of power.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 21:05

  • Trump Blasts Biden Over Soaring Prices, Says True Inflation Rate Is "Much, Much Higher" Than 9.1%
    Trump Blasts Biden Over Soaring Prices, Says True Inflation Rate Is “Much, Much Higher” Than 9.1%

    Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Former President Donald Trump seared President Joe Biden over his handling of the inflationary wave hammering American households, telling rally-goers in Arizona, that the true rate of inflation is far higher than the official rate of 9.1 percent.

    Former President Donald Trump attends a rally in support of Arizona GOP candidates, in Prescott Valley, Ariz., on July 22, 2022. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

    Trump made the remarks at a Friday rally in Prescott Valley, where the former president was stumping on behalf of former TV anchor Kari Lake in her bid to become Arizona’s next governor in the upcoming GOP primary election.

    During his speech, Trump touted his own record on the economy, including high job creation and low inflation.

    Former President Donald Trump gestures at a rally in Prescott Valley, Ariz., on July 22, 2022. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

    ‘The Worst Inflation’

    Trump told rally-goers that under his tenure, “we had the greatest economy in the history of the world with no inflation,” while adding that “Biden created the worst inflation in 47 years.”

    February 2017, the first full month of Trump in office, saw the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation gauge at 2.8 percent in annual terms. While the CPI measure fluctuated during his tenure, the highest it ever reached was 2.9 percent in July 2018, while in his final month in office, January 2021, inflation clocked in at 1.4 percent.

    Inflation has climbed steadily under Biden, soaring 9.1 percent year-over-year in June 2022, a figure not seen in over 40 years.

    Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told CBS News’ “Face the Nation,” on July 24, that inflation in the United States has “probably” peaked, while acknowledging that factors “out of our control” like another war or pandemic could once again cause price growth to accelerate.

    President Joe Biden waves as he walks to Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on July 20, 2022. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

    ‘War on American Energy’

    While Trump did not go into detail as to the Biden policies that he thinks have sent inflation soaring, he did single out what he called “Biden’s war on American energy.”

    Soaring energy prices have been one of the key contributing factors to inflation, accounting for around half of the headline inflation figure, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    Since taking office, Biden has signed a number of executive orders targeting the oil industry, such as revoking the Keystone XL pipeline permit, freezing new oil and gas drilling leases on federal lands and waters, and ending fossil fuel subsidies by certain agencies.

    The price of gasoline is around double what it was when Biden took office, with the president variously blaming a lack of refining capacity, global supply shortfalls set against a sharp post-pandemic rebound in demand, the war in Ukraine, and corporate greed.

    In a bid to lower gasoline prices, Biden has ordered the release of crude reserves from the national strategic reserve, called on U.S. refiners to boost output, and pushed OPEC to pump more oil.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 20:45

  • The Japanese Passport Is Still The 'Most Powerful' In The World
    The Japanese Passport Is Still The ‘Most Powerful’ In The World

    Japan has the most powerful passport in the world, according to the Henley Passport Index, with its citizens able to visit 193 countries without a prior visa. South Korea and Singapore come in joint second place, with their citizens able to visit 192 countries.

    As Statista’s Anna Fleck points out, even though the United States is a little further down the list, coming in at 7th place, it still yields considerable power, enabling citizens to enter 186 countries without major restrictions.

    It’s a level of freedom also enjoyed by passport holders in Belgium, New Zealand, Norway, and Switzerland.

    At the other end of the scale, the situation is very different.

    Infographic: The World’s Most (and Least) Powerful Passports | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    For passport holders in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria for example, travel is more restrictive to most countries.

    The Afghan passport wields the least power of the ranking, with just 27 destinations permissible visa-free.

    The situation in Iraq and Syria isn’t much better, at 29 and 30 destinations, respectively.

    The Henley Passport Index draws from data from the International Air Transport Authority (IATA), including 199 different passports and 227 different travel destinations.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 20:25

  • Trudeau Plans To Slash Canadian Fertilizer Use In Similar Move To Netherlands
    Trudeau Plans To Slash Canadian Fertilizer Use In Similar Move To Netherlands

    Authored by Jarryd Jaeger via The Post Millennial,

    Over the past few weeks, farmers across the Netherlands have vehemently turned up in droves to protest the government’s plan to reduce nitrous oxide emissions, arguing it would have disastrous consequences for their business, and eventually, consumers.

    The source of their anger is a policy that is not unlike one which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is seeking to implement in Canada.

    In 2020, the Trudeau Liberals announced that their goal was to reduce emissions from fertilizer, a major producer of nitrous oxide, by 50 percent over the next eight years.

    Fertilizer Canada slammed the government’s “short-sighted approach,” arguing that reducing nitrogen fertilizer use “will have considerable impact on Canadian farmers’ incomes and reduce overall Canadian exports and GDP.”

    In a report compiled by Meyers Norris Penny (MNP), they suggest that regulated fertilizer reduction could cost Canadian farmers $48 billion by 2030 and reduce crop sizes

    By this time, “yield gaps for three major crops are estimated at 23.6 bushels per acre per year for canola, 67.9 bushels per acre per year for corn, and 36.1 bushels per acre per year for spring wheat.”

    As the Toronto Sun reports, fertilizer is typically the most expensive cost for farmers, and they tend to use only as much as is needed.

    Under the plan, farmers will likely be forced to move to using costlier “greener” fertilizer, which in turn translates to higher prices for consumers.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 20:05

  • Internet Abuzz After Mysterious Red Lights Spotted In Atlantic Ocean
    Internet Abuzz After Mysterious Red Lights Spotted In Atlantic Ocean

    Photos posted on Reddit claiming to be a swath of red lights seen over the Atlantic has sparked a debate over just what, exactly, is going on.

    Mysterious red glow seen over the Atlantic, pilot says he’s never seen anything like it,” wrote redditor /mohiemen in the “Damnthatsinteresting” forum.

    And of course, what good would pictures of mysterious red ocean lights be without apocalyptic replies?

    “If I’m not wrong, the first DOOM game was set in 2022, so this is it. There comes the demons. There is the end…” -/u/ChinuCODM

    The jokes continued for a while…

    As Interesting Engineering notes, A similar phenomenon was spotted in 2014 by pilot JPC Van Heijst. 

    In the night of 24-25 August 2014, I flew a 747-8 from Hong Kong to Anchorage. While flying over the vast Pacific Ocean, somewhere southeast of the Russian Kamchatka Peninsula, I had one of the strangest experiences of my life. Around five hours into our flight with Japan a long time behind us, we were cruising at a comfortable 34.000 ft with about four and half hours to go towards Alaska. Over the radio, we heard Air Traffic Control talking to other planes that were heading for the US West Coast about diversions due to major earthquakes in San Francisco,” wrote the pilot, who then described what he saw in the sky.

    I noticed a deep red/orange glow appearing ahead of us, and this was confirmed when I looked at preview of the photos on the back of my camera. There was supposed to be nothing but endless ocean below for hundreds of miles around us. They initially appeared as a distant city or group of typical Asian squid fishing boats, but this did not make sense in this area. The lights we saw were much larger in size than your average city or group of boats, but they also glowed red and orange, instead of the normal yellow and white that cities or ships would produce.”

    The closer we got, the more intense the glow became, illuminating the clouds and sky below us in a scary orange glow that you would expect with a massive fire on the ground. In a part of the world where there was supposed to be nothing but water.”

    That said, the least-fun answer goes to…

    Redditor Musicide, who points out that the red lights could be “boats equipped with large arrays of red LED panels for Saury fishing.”

    Which begs the question – why hasn’t this phenomenon been seen more frequently?

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 19:45

  • Pet Cloning Is Booming In China
    Pet Cloning Is Booming In China

    Authored by Jennifer Bateman via The Epoch Times,

    In recent years, cloning of deceased pets has become a booming business in China, a market that is rapidly growing despite its high price tag, immature technology, and controversial ethics.

    In July 2019, SinoGene, China’s pet cloning bellwether, produced China’s first cloned cat for 250,000 yuan ($37,000). Since then, commercial pet cloning in China is enjoying growing popularity.

    The company just opened a new branch in eastern China’s Jiangsu Province, with the plant occupying an area of 27,000 square meters (6.67 acres) and a total building area of 17,000 square meters (4.2 acres).

    The initial high price of cloning was unaffordable for most Chinese. But, cloning costs have gone down. The present price tag for cloning a cat is 118,000 yuan (about $17,500), less than half what it was three years ago, according to a SinoGene salesperson.

    The price of cloning a pet dog, which varies based on the size of the animal, is currently between 168,000 and 198,000 yuan (about $25,000 to $29,000), which is 50 percent less than the 380,000 yuan (about $56,000) it was in April 2019.

    But even the current cloning prices are equivalent to what it would take an average Chinese person 2 to 3 years to earn.

    In the past few years, SinoGene has successfully delivered more than 300 cloned pets, including approximately 100 cats and 200 dogs. In addition, more than 1,000 customers have preserved pet cells with SinoGene for future cloning needs.

    The pet cloning market in China is becoming highly competitive. In addition to Hino Valley, another pet cloning company is PanGene, which is well-known for cloning Purebred Tibetan Mastiff dogs. Some commercial catteries and kennels have also preserved cell lines from cats and dogs and provide cloning services in order to preserve the best breeds.

    According to the 2021 white paper on China’s pet industry, the total number of pet dogs and cats in China exceeded 112 million last year, and in urban areas across the country, the pet cat and dog consumption market increased from 206.5 billion yuan (about $30.56 billion) in 2020 to 249 billion yuan (about $36.85 billion) in 2021, an increase of 20.6 percent.

    The pet market in China has grown further during the COVID-19 pandemic, as pets provide important emotional support to people during difficult times.

    Taobao, China’s largest e-commerce platform, said in a report last year that in February, the number of live broadcasts of pets on Taobao increased by 375 percent year-on-year, with about 1 million people watching them every day.

    Mixed Feelings When Owners See Their Cloned Pets

    Stories from cloning companies and the media reveal that most people chose to clone their pets because they hoped to retrieve lost memories and companionship. However, cloned animals, no matter how sophisticated the technology, are not guaranteed to be 100 percent identical in appearance. Moreover, the cloned pet does not possess any past memory of its “parent.” It is essentially a different individual.

    In July 2019, China’s first cloned cat, whose name was Garlic, was born. But its owner, Huang Yu, admitted that he was a little disappointed when he saw a video of the the animal. This cloned cat and the original “Garlic” looked different in many ways, and the black garlic clove-shaped markings were missing from the cat’s jaw, even though a third-party agency confirmed that the DNAs of the two cats were identical.

    More importantly, the new Garlic did not respond to him like an old friend as he had expected it would when they first met.

    Zhang Yueyan, the owner of a cloned dog named Nini, is much more tolerant, even though little Nini’s fur is much darker than that of the original Nini. Zhang still hopes that little Nini can be like the original Nini, and accompany her in her life for another 19 years.

    Unavoidable Ethical Issues

    Currently, there are no laws in place to regulate pet cloning or pet surrogacy; still, there are moral and ethical pressures.

    Dr. Yang Guiyuan, a Japan-based researcher in the veterinary clinical and pathology field for many years, told The Epoch Times that the physical body of a human or animal has a higher and more microscopic aspect. Westerners call it “soul” and Chinese call it “Yuanshen” or primordial spirit. From this point of view, the cloned animal, no matter how similar its appearance, is an independent life.

    “In addition, scientific and technological means may introduce genetic defects.  If the cloned animal keep reproducing for a few generations, will it end up producing a genetic monster in the end? It’s hard to say,” Yang said.

    As of today, there are still many problems in cloning technology that need to be resolved. The low success rate also increases the number of animals needed in the cloning process, and some of these animals may be subjected to inhumane treatment.

    For example, when China’s first cloned cat was finally produced, at least 40 eggs from 5 cats were used and implanted into 4 surrogate cats. Retrieving eggs from the mother cats and implanting embryos into the surrogate cats all involved surgical procedures.

    Presently, internationally accepted applications of animal cloning are mainly in the fields of basic research and biomedicine, or to save endangered species.

    Pioneers in Animal Cloning Exit the Practice

    Unlike to China’s booming pet cloning business, Roslin Institute in the UK, which produced the world’s first cloned sheep, Dolly, no longer does animal cloning. In the United States, BioArts, a company in Northern California, offered dog cloning services in 2008, but closed the business one year later.

    “We do not clone animals any more. The technique has a very low success rate. Dolly was the result of many months of research involving a highly skilled team,” Roslin Institute explained on its website.“What are the risks associated with cloning? Cloned embryos are more likely to be lost during pregnancy than normal embryos, which accounts for the low success rate of cloning. Large Offspring Syndrome (LOS) can also affect some cloned animals. Animals with LOS have growth defects and are considerably larger at birth than animals resulting from natural matings.”

    In an exclusive interview with UK media Mirror in April 2014, Lou Hawthorne, founder and CEO of Bioarts, revealed that the reason he quit the cloning business was that he was sickened over the suffering it causes thousands of dogs each year.

    “I couldn’t care less if the cloning business world collapses, but I care about suffering.” Lou told the Mirror’s reporter.

    Dr. Yang believes that the commercialization of pet cloning in China is a practice that violates the laws of nature and ethics for financial benefits. These people think they can manipulate life casually, and have no respect for life, he said.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 19:25

  • 'Great Resignation'? Here's Why People Are Quitting Their Jobs
    ‘Great Resignation’? Here’s Why People Are Quitting Their Jobs

    With employees in the United States quitting their jobs voluntarily at a rate 25 percent higher from December 2019-May 2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels, employers and some entire industries are scrambling to fill the substantial gaps being left behind.

    Research in Australia, Canada, India, Singapore, the United Kingdom and the United States by McKinsey & Company reveals that of employees that chose to quit their jobs from April 2020 to April 2022, 65 percent did not so far return to the same industry.

    As Statista’s Martin Armstring details in the infographic below, the survey also revealed the most common reasons cited by those handing in their notice.

    Infographic: Why People Are Quitting Their Jobs | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    At the top of the list are the classics: “Lack of career development/advancement” and “inadequate compensation”.

    The importance of a good boss is also highlighted, however, with the third most common response being uncaring or uninspiring leaders.

    A quarter of respondents said that a lack of workplace flexibility was also a factor – an issue acknowledged with varying degrees of enthusiasm and success since swathes of the global workforce realized that working from home was also possible during lockdown.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 19:05

  • Adam Schiff: J6 Committee Could Subpoena Ginni Thomas About Justice Thomas
    Adam Schiff: J6 Committee Could Subpoena Ginni Thomas About Justice Thomas

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    There was a telling exchange today on CBS’ Face the Nation when host Margaret Brennan asked J6 Committee member Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) about issuing a subpoena of Ginni Thomas, the wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.  I have previously written how the calls for Justice Thomas to resign or be impeached are wildly out of line with ethical and constitutional standards.

    What was interesting, however, was how Schiff justified such an unprecedented subpoena: to question her about one of Thomas’ opinions dealing with the authority of Congress to investigate what occurred on that day.

    The House was given the messages by Ginni Thomas previously, including 29 messages from November 2020 to mid-January 2021. They were part of over 2300 text messages sent to the Committee by White House chief of staff Mark Meadows. That turning over of the messages were the subject of press coverage in December 2021 before the January 19, 2022 opinion with the sole dissent of Thomas.

    Here is the exchange:

    MARGARET BRENNAN: Your colleague Liz Cheney was on two other networks this morning, and she said that you all are discussing a potential subpoena for Ginni Thomas, who is married to Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Are there lines that shouldn’t be crossed here when it comes to the Supreme Court? Because one of the objections to the premise of a subpoena here is that it- it sets a dangerous precedent by putting the spouse of a justice in this political forum.

    REP. SCHIFF: There are lines that shouldn’t be crossed, but those lines involve sitting Supreme Court justices, not presiding or appearing or taking action in cases in which their spouse may be implicated. And in this case, for Clarence Thomas to issue a decision, in a case, a dissent in a case where Congress is trying to get documents, and those documents might involve his own wife, that’s the line that’s been crossed. And I think, for Congress to be looking into these issues, looking into conflict of interest issues. But here, looking into issues, whether it involves the wife of a Supreme Court justice or anyone else, if they have information or role in an effort to overturn an election. Yes, they’re not excluded from examination.

    MARGARET BRENNAN: It sounds like you’re saying you favor that subpoena?

    REP. SCHIFF: Well, if she has relevant information or investigation, we hope she comes in voluntarily. But if she doesn’t, then we should give that a serious consideration. And, yes, I think those that we decided have important enough information should be subpoenaed.

    Schiff clearly states that the interest of the Committee is to use Thomas’ spouse to explore a prior opinion in an election-related case. Rep. Liz Cheney (R., Wy) has also stated that the Committee might subpoena Ginni Thomas.

    Various politicians and pundits have suggested that Thomas could be impeached for violating the Judicial Code of Ethics because he voted on a challenge to the Commission obtaining White House messages and emails. (For the record, I publicly stated that the Commission should prevail on those demands). In January, the House won an 8-1 victory before the Supreme Court, which rejected Trump’s privilege objections to the release of White House materials. There was only one dissenting vote: Thomas.

    However, the justices have long insisted that they are not compelled to follow the Code of Judicial Conduct.  I have long disagreed with that view and have called for Congress to mandate the application of the code to the Court. Yet, the Court has maintained that such conflict rules are not mandatory and many have refused to recuse themselves in circumstances that were flagged as possible violations.

    Yet, Schiff stripped away the pretense of subpoenaing Ginni Thomas about her messages to the White House. This is about her husband, not her support for the election challenges or what occurred on January 6th.

    A well-known Republican activist and Trump supporter, Thomas encouraged then-White House chief of staff Mark Meadows to pursue legal and legislative challenges to what she viewed as a stolen election.

    The reason that Ginni Thomas’ messages were seized is not because she was a key figure in the investigation but that the Commission has demanded any messages that deal with such challenges or the rally — a scope that has been criticized as overbroad. Congress then leaked the messages and the media did the rest.

    There is no evidence that Ginni Thomas ever encouraged violence or was even present at the Capitol during the riot. Thomas said that she attended the Ellipse rally on Jan. 6 but left early, before Trump spoke, and never went to the Capitol.

    On a committee that was tasked with uncovering what occurred on January 6th, Schiff is now saying that the committee’s jurisdiction would extend to what the Supreme Court did a year later. That is more than a case of “mission creep.” It is radical departure from past practices and long-standing interbranch comity. It could create dangerous precedent as members use such committees to investigate jurists on the motivations or communications leading to their opinions.

    Once again, members like Schiff appear to be tossing caution to the wind to appeal to core constituencies. How exactly will Schiff and the Committee investigate Justice Thomas’ motivations and actions? It would have to demand disclosures of his spousal communications. It would also threaten perjury or contempt charges if Ginni Thomas is not accurate in her details.

    The use of the J6 Committee in this way would reaffirm the criticism of the committee as a partisan exercise. The fact that Cheney has joined in such calls only highlights the absence of even a modicum of balance on the committee. It would also constitute one of the most intrusive acts ever taken against the Court outside of a formal impeachment proceeding.

    It is a threat that should be universally condemned and immediately withdrawn.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 18:45

  • Uber-Bear Mike Wilson Is Almost Ready To Turn Bullish… Except For One Thing
    Uber-Bear Mike Wilson Is Almost Ready To Turn Bullish… Except For One Thing

    One week ago, before he hinted at turning bullish as a result of record bearish sentiment when he said that while he anticipates poor fundamentals for H2 2022, “sentiment says stocks/credit rally in coming weeks”, Bank of America’s Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett – who until now had proven himself as Wall Street’s most bearish and most accurate analyst – predicted that the Fed will pivot in November, effectively unleashing the next bull market in early 2023 (soaring commodity prices notwithstanding), and naturally the big trade on Wall Street remains frontrunning said pivot because by the time Powell capitulates much of the reversal will already be in the books.

    More importantly, with Hartnett – who recently said “At SPX 3600 Nibble, At 3300 Bite, At 3000 Gorge” – becoming tactically bullish, that meant that Morgan Stanley’s in-house Michael (that would be chief US equity strategist Wilson) had seemingly assumed the title of biggest Wall Street bear. Or did he? After all, the last time we heard from him he was warning stocks would plunge to 3,000 as the “slowdown was even worse than he expected.”

    Well, in his latest Weekly Warm-up Note (available in its entirety to professional subscribers) which was written somewhat cryptically for the clearly spoken Wilson, he echoes the latest observations from Goldman’s flow trading desk, namely that “with equity markets seemingly shrugging off bad news on the economy and earnings, we explore the idea that it may be trying to get ahead of the eventual pause by the Fed that is always a bullish signal.” So yes, seemingly even Wilson has decided that it is more prudent to chase momentum upward during this particular rally, while keeping his bearishness on the backburner. However, unlike some of his bearish colleagues, Wilson hedges that “the problem this time is that the pause is likely to come too late.”

    Let’s deconstruct Wilson’s argument which begins with a question: “Is the Market Trying to Price a Fed Pause?” (incidentally a question which we answered one month ago in “Fed Rate-Hikes To End This Year, Followed By 3% Of Rate-Cuts & QE“.)

    According to Wilson, since the June lows, the US equity market has been range trading between those lows and 3950. However, this past week the S&P 500 peeked its head above the 50 day moving average, touching 4000 for a few hours. And while Wilson naturally is unconvinced this is anything but a bear market rally, “it does beg the question is something going on here we are missing that could make this a more sustainable low and even the end to the bear market?” Of course, we posed that exact same question one month ago, when quoting a Goldman trading who observed the “First Real Buying In 3 Weeks” and we asked if this is “The Start Of The Next Big Move Higher” (so far we are certainly higher compared to the depths of June if nowhere near the January all time highs).

    Going back to Wilson, he writes that from a fundamental standpoint, he is “more convicted in our view that bottoms up NTM S&P 500 earnings estimates are too high and have meaningful (i.e. 10%+) downside from the recent peak of $240. So far, that forecast has only dropped by 0.5% making it difficult for us to agree with the view the market has already priced it.” Of course, Wilson concedes, he could also be wrong about the earnings risk and perhaps the current $238 is an accurate reflection of reality. However, given the extraordinary deterioration in earnings revision breadth, he still thinks the evidence is building for his view (the recessionary one even though Morgan Stanley still cowardly refuses to make a recession its base case) to play out over the next several months.

    As earnings get worse, financial conditions are only getting tighter with the ECB finally joining the hiking party last week with it’s own 50bps move, the largest in 22 years. Here Wilson, just like us, couldn’t help but be reminded of the infamous 25bps hike by the ECB in July 2008, when Europe was already in a recession and just 2 months before the Lehman bankruptcy and onset of the Great Financial Crisis, not to mention that other hike just months before the peak of the European sovereign debt crisis, which only culminated after Draghi vowed to do whatever it takes.

    Last week’s move was eerily similar in many ways. Obviously, the rationale for raising rates now is to join the fight against inflation while also defending the Euro against the US Dollar. However, as Wilson correctly notes, the battle on inflation should have begun a year ago, not now when demand destruction is already well developed and likely to take care of inflation on its own. If that wasn’t enough, the ECB’s rate hikes in 2011 also look unnecessary in hindsight with recession likely already baked before those two 25bps increases. Could this time be different? It seems unlikely with Eurozone GDP growth fast approaching zero and likely to move into negative territory soon.

    And so, with most of Morgan Stanley’s leading indicators on growth rolling over hard, Wilson thinks this is the more important variable to watch for stocks at this point rather than inflation or the Fed’s reaction to it.

    Having said that, he does agree with the narrative that inflation has likely peaked from a rate of change standpoint with commodities as the best real time evidence of that claim:

    We think the equity market is smart enough to understand this too and more importantly that growth is quickly becoming a problem. Therefore, part of the recent rally may be the Equity market looking forward to the Fed’s eventual attempt to save the cycle from recession and with time running short on that front, that opportunity is now or never.

    Of course, there are a few shades of gray between “now” and “never”, and when looking at past cycles, Wilson admits that there is always a period between the Fed’s last hike and the eventual recession–i.e. the Fed is typically long done raising rates before the recession arrives. This is in sharp contrast to the European Central Bank which was still tightening when the last two recessions began. More importantly, this period between the last Fed hike and the eventual recession has been a good time to be long the S&P 500 and many stocks/sectors.

    In short – and as we have been saying since last December – the Equity market always rallies when the Fed pauses it’s tightening campaign prior to the oncoming recession. In some cases, the rally is so powerful, the S&P 500 usually makes a new all time high before everything comes crashing down. The point that Wilson wants to make here is that “IF the market is starting to think the Fed is about to pause rate hikes after next week’s move, this would provide the best fundamental rationale for why equity markets have rallied so sharply over the past few weeks and why it might signal a more durable low.”

    Or, a simple way of saying all of the above is that someone read our article from last month “Fed Rate-Hikes To End This Year, Followed By 3% Of Rate-Cuts & QE” and traded on it

    So why would markets be thinking the Fed is about to pause or slow rate hikes, as Eurodollar futures clearly are, pricing in almost one full hike in Q1 2023…

    … or even end QT prematurely, as former NY Fed guru Marc Cabana said will happen?

    Part of the reason is the fact that the Fed is already having their desired effect on demand and so it seems quite plausible inflation could look considerably lower in 6 months time. Second, the bond market is sending similar signals with rate cuts now getting priced as early as the Fed’s early February 2023 meeting (see above) and the terminal rate and 2 year yields starting to fall as today’s auction showed. This is also in line with Wilson’s own thinking and why he has been bullish on long duration Treasuries over the past several months.

    Of course, lower back end rates (both nominal and real) can also be interpreted as good for longer duration growth stocks, particularly relative to value/cyclicals. This, Wilson notes, “helps explain not only the rally in the S&P 500 but also the relative outperformance of the Nasdaq and other growth indices relative to value stocks.”

    Putting it all together, Wilson agrees with the overarching case for a Fed-pivot driven rally… but there is one problem. As he explains, “the problem with this thinking beyond a near term rally is that it’s unlikely the Fed is going to pause early enough to kick save the cycle.” He explains why:

    While we appreciate that the market (and investors) may be trying to leap ahead here to get in front of what could be a bullish signal for equity valuations, we remain skeptical that the Fed can reverse the negative trends for demand that are now well established, some of which have nothing to do with monetary policy–i.e. payback in demand and out of sync cost structures with too little pricing power to offset at this point.

    Furthermore, the demand destructive nature of high inflation that is presenting itself today will not easily disappear even if inflation declines sharply because prices are already out of reach in areas of the economy that are critical for the cycle to extend–i.e. housing, autos, food, gasoline and other necessities.

    Here Wilson reminds us of a key thing which the high school intern in charge of White House economic policy may want to note, namely that “lower inflation does not mean negative price changes for many of these items and to the extent deflation does return via discounting to drive demand, rest assured that will not be good for profit margins and/or earnings revisions.”

    Adding insult to injury, the survey shows consumer intentions to spend over the next 6 months continues to deteriorate rapidly, even for things like travel and leisure, the area of spend that was supposed to offset the obvious payback on goods spending that is now well established.

    Moreover, in speaking with his industry analysts, Wilson has encountered increasing concern about deteriorating volume demand in many categories of discretionary spend and discounting returning.

    Finally, and most ominously, consumer delinquencies are picking up too in several categories of spend with AT&T mentioning this specifically for cell phone bills which tends to be one of the last things people stop paying. Car payments are the other one that is last to stop and here too Morgan Stanley is hearing hearing about rising delinquencies from recent buyers who borrowed more than they should have been allowed based on inflated incomes from the stimulus checks.

    And then there is the market: In addition to 2 year UST yields and the terminal rate falling, the 2s-10s curve remains inverted by approximately 20bps, the most in nearly two decades. And while the bond market has been preoccupied with the generationally high inflation readings and the Fed’s reaction to it, Wilson thinks it is now starting to contemplate the impact of both on growth.

    In that regard, the bond market is catching up to the equity market. Ironically, the equity market is taking the lower yields signal as a positive for stocks, particularly growth stocks as it starts to give credibility again to the soft landing scenario after having moved away from that view so aggressively in June.

    Morgan Stanley’s take is that this view could persist into August if the Fed throws the markets a bone next week and insinuates it has done enough for now. While that’s not the bank’s house call or view for next week’s meeting, anything can happen in what has been an extremely unpredictable Fed that virtually no one has gotten right this year as they deviated so much from their “guidance” due to inflation surprising so much on the upside.

    Even Wilson’s more hawkish view than consensus at the beginning of the year, which was the primary feature of Wilson’s Fire and Ice narrative, was far surpassed as the Fed was forced to play catch up in a way that was totally mispriced by markets just 6 months ago. We can’t say that today with the curve inverted and the terminal rate still 175 basis points above the current Fed Funds rate.

    As a final comment for equity investors to consider, Wilson asks if the Fed was so off on its guidance this year due to the surprising economic and inflation outcome, perhaps this is a precursor to how bad company guidance for the year will turn out to be.

    The bottom line for the Uber-bearish strategist is that “the Fed is looking more like the ECB this cycle in that they are likely to still be tightening when recession arrives this time making the window to trade the pause much shorter than usual with less upside as well.” Unless, of course, one successfully frontruns the crowd and buys when everyone else is selling just as the Fed capitulates and pivots, sending risk assets into orbit if only for a few seconds…

    Much more in the full note from Wilson available to pro subscribers in the usual place.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 18:44

  • Canadian Pastor Arrested For Holding Church Services During COVID Wins Legal Victory
    Canadian Pastor Arrested For Holding Church Services During COVID Wins Legal Victory

    Most of the narratives surrounding the covid pandemic and the lockdowns were illogical and faulty, based in propaganda rather than science and fear instead of reason.  One key issue that was never addressed by lockdown proponents was the question of “risk.”  Doesn’t every individual have a natural right to take whatever risks they see as acceptable when it comes to their own health?  If a group of people want to go to a church service and take the risk that they might get covid, don’t they have the right to do that?

    Of course, lockdown supporters will claim that those refusing to comply with mandates don’t have a right to put “other people at risk,” but how much risk from covid is there really?

    According to dozens of independent and peer reviewed studies from around the world, the actual “risk” of death from covid is limited.  Studies indicate that the median Infection Fatality Rate (or Ratio) of covid is between 0.23% and 0.27% of the population.  This is the contrary mainstream science that the media rarely talks about.

    So, 99.7% of all people (according to the science) on average face no mortal risk from the worst variants of covid.  IFR is in most cases the most accurate statistic on the death rate of a virus because it accounts for asymptomatic cases.  Case Fatality Rate (CFR), the stat often used more by the mainstream media, does not.  Even the World Health Organization notes on its website that:  “The true severity of a disease can be described by the Infection Fatality Ratio…”

    When comparing covid to a virus like the Spanish Flu, which killed over 50 million people worldwide according to the CDC, one would think that there would be a measure of apprehension when it comes to violating the freedoms of the public.  Nope.  The relatively low level of risk associated with covid made no difference to governments or global institutions.  They charged forward like bulls in a china shop breaking everything in their path and treating unilateral “mandates” as if they were laws. 

    Luckily, the tide has been slowly turning back and resistance to lockdowns and vaccine passports has been more pervasive than many officials seem to have expected.  In most conservative states within the US, the lockdowns ended quickly, within a few months in many cases, once it was realized that covid was not the population killer that the media, the CDC and the WHO had made it out to be.  Leftist blue states and countries like Canada were not so lucky.  

    Canadian Pastor Artur Pawlowski experienced the full brunt of medical authoritarianism first hand when, on May 9, 2021, he sought to hold a church service for his congregants only to be arrested along with his brother Dawid Pawlowski for “inciting an in-person gathering.”  

    In October of 2021, a Judge ruled that the Pastor was in violation of a covid health order.  The punishment was bizarre and Orwellian; he was heavily fined, and whenever he spoke publicly about covid he would be required to recite a government-approved statement saying that “most medical experts support social distancing, face masks, and vaccines.”  When the court says “most experts,” they are of course referring to government paid “experts.”  There are many medical experts that disagree with the efficacy of the lockdowns and other mandates.  

    Researchers, with over 18,000 studies and after four levels of screening, found 24 papers that would provide a stringent comparison of lockdown effects. They found that lockdowns reduced covid mortality in the United States and Europe by only 0.2 percent on average. They also looked at forced shelter-in-place, which reduced mortality by only 2.9 percent on average.

    The researchers had this final conclusion:

    “While this meta-analysis concludes that lockdowns have had little to no public health effects, they have imposed enormous economic and social costs where they have been adopted. In consequence, lockdown policies are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.”

    This week an appeals court ruled that the Alberta Health Agency’s order prohibiting “illegal public gatherings” was “not sufficiently clear and unambiguous” in connection to the Pawlowskis.

    “The Pawlowskis’ appeals are allowed. The finding of contempt and the sanction order are set aside. The fines that have been paid by them are to be reimbursed,” the three-member panel proclaimed in a 16-page ruling. 

    Pawlowski grew up under communist rule in Poland and this is likely the root of his refusal to comply.  He’s seen all of this before, including the typical religious persecution inherent in communist societies. 

    The legal victory is a clear reminder that the fear surrounding potential crisis events is often exploited and abused by governments to erase personal freedoms and legal protections.  It is these moments in history when individual rights are MORE important, not less, because whenever there is a crisis the worst types of tyrants tend to come out of the woodwork. 

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 18:25

  • Why Job Turnover Is So High For Gen Z And Millennials
    Why Job Turnover Is So High For Gen Z And Millennials

    Authored by Kimberlee Josephson via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    Jonathan Haidt’s latest essay, “Why the Past 10 Years of American Life have Been Uniquely Stupid,” calls attention to concerns related to how Gen Z has been raised.

    According to Haidt (and previously fleshed out in his insightful text The Coddling of the American Mind), Gen Z has received the most structure and attention throughout their upbringing, in comparison to previous generations, and the pre-organized playdates, ongoing extracurriculars, and soft-handed critiques have inhibited their ability to develop grit and gumption.

    Haidt is not alone in raising these concerns. Autonomous play and independent study are largely foreign concepts to Gen Z, which is why skillsets related to critical thinking and social interaction warrant attention.

    CGS notes that, in reference to a survey conducted by the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM), competencies lacking for Gen Z include: problem solving and creativity, the capacity to deal with complexity and ambiguity, and communication efficacy. And, according to another survey by SHRM, Gen Z is aware that they are ill-prepared.

    While Haidt’s essay places the blame on older generations for not equipping Gen Z and calls attention to the implications that this has for the future of democracy (an important point since Gen Z is proving to be a prominent voting bloc), it is also worth noting the economic impact it may have as Gen Z enters into the workforce and Baby Boomers retire out.

    The size of the Gen Z cohort will soon surpass that of Millennials who currently make up a bulk of the US working populace, and so businesses must be mindful of the expectations and accommodations necessary for their new recruits.

    Millennials and Gen Z were reared in a child-centered society and have been programmed for times of transition and miniature milestones, with hand-holding along the way. To put things in perspective, only five years ago, it was documented that parents were joining in on their child’s job interviews and companies even created “Bring your Parent to Work days.”

    Gen Z’s childhood has most certainly influenced their professional pursuits and workplace preferences, but now cognitive dissonance is setting in as forms of recognition and connection are lacking in post-pandemic work environments. Consequently, job satisfaction matters now more than ever and firms must be people-oriented since, no matter how important or inspiring the task or organizational purpose, it won’t matter if employees don’t feel vested in it or prepared for it.

    It must also be noted that young workers have not only been hampered by parents and pandemics regarding their workplace readiness, but also show signs of greater anxiety and stress due social media use—and this is also spilling over into the workplace.

    As digital natives, Gen Zers have not only been exposed to a greater degree of the world’s problems but also the achievements, accomplishments, and accolades of others, thereby creating new pressures to keep up. Nowhere is this more apparent than on LinkedIn, which is Gen Z’s preferred professional platform.

    LinkedIn has booming membership rates among younger cohorts of workers, and activity online has been surging with early entrant employees anxious to signal their success or share their job market news. And there is a lot of sharing going on given that 40 percent of LinkedIn users reportedly change their employment status every four years.

    Notifications highlighting employment shifts normalize this trend, but tales of turnover are troublesome for organizations due not only to costs of recruitment or difficulties dealing with vacancies, but also since employee upheaval can have a negative impact on company culture and inspire others to follow suit.

    As new research featured in Fast Company shows, “Millennials and Gen Z are currently proving to be the driving force behind the Great Resignation.” These generations are not shy about chasing new opportunities, and this is particularly true of Gen Z, notes US News.

    The study by software and data analytics company Adobe found that more than half of Gen Z respondents reported planning to seek a new job within the next year. The generation also reported being least satisfied with their jobs, 59%, and with their work-life balance, at 56%. Nearly two-thirds of them, 62%, said they felt the most pressure to work during “office hours,” even though they said they do their best work outside of normal office hours.

    While Haidt’s essay noted above depicts the dangers of too much online activity and calls for raising the internet access age requirement, it is too late for Gen Z who have been encouraged to create LinkedIn profiles as part of the job hunt and are expected to have a virtual presence with the brands and organizations they are affiliated with.

    So, with this in mind (and in being wary about inviting further government interference in the digital realm), companies must be on the lookout for those workers who are not only in need of skill development but also require a greater connection to the real world rather than virtual world.

    Managers must be forthright and inquire about employee needs as well as future ambitions to rein in temptations for exploring external prospects, and organizations must dedicate more time to nurturing the company culture and cultivating human connections to ensure both engagement and empowerment.

    As stated by Thomas Sowell, in Wealth, Poverty, and Politics, “Transferring the fruits of human capital is not as fundamental as spreading the human capital itself.”

    *  *  *

    Reprinted from the Foundation for Economic Education

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 18:05

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Today’s News 25th July 2022

  • Escobar: Welcome To NAM 2.0, The End Of The "Rules-Based International Order"
    Escobar: Welcome To NAM 2.0, The End Of The “Rules-Based International Order”

    Authored by Pepe Escobar,

    Those were the days, in 1955, at the legendary Bandung conference in Indonesia, when the newly emancipated Global South started dreaming of building a new world, via what became configured later in 1961 in Belgrade as the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM).

    The Empire of Chaos – and Lies – would never allow a starring role for NAM. So it played dirty: everything from hardcore subversion and bribing to military coups and proto-color revolutions.

    Yet now, the Spirit of Bandung lives again, via a sort of NAM 2.0 on steroids: a Newly Aligned Movement, with the leaders of Eurasian integration at the vanguard.

    We just had a taste of which way the geopolitical wind is blowing at the gathering of a new power troika in Tehran. Unlike Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill in 1943, Putin, Raisi and Erdogan did not meet to carve up the world. They met essentially to discuss how another world is possible – through bilaterals, trilaterals, multilaterals and an enhanced role for an array of relatively new geopolitical and geoeconomic institutions.

    Russia – and China – have been on the forefront of all recent key decisions. Their diplomacy has brought Iran to join the SCO as a full member. Their pull is attracting key Global South players to join BRICS+. Russia has all but convinced Turkey to join BRICS+, the SCO and the EAEU, and facilitated the re-approximation of Tehran and Ankara as well as Tehran and Riyadh. Russia has largely influenced the remake/remodel process across West Asia.

    This NAM 2.0 drive – of which China is a key player – stands in stark opposition to how the Empire of Chaos – and Lies – wove its toxic net, via the war on terror, since the start of the millennium. The Empire tried to subdue what it described as MENA (Middle East-Northern Africa) on the basis of two invasions/occupations (Afghanistan-Iraq); a total devastation (Libya); and a protracted proxy war (Syria). All eventually failed.

    And that brings us to the stunning contrast between these two foreign policy approaches, graphically illustrated by the spectacular failure of the teleprompter-reading “leader of the free world” in his visit to Jeddah – he was not even allowed to go to Riyadh – compared to Putin’s performance in Tehran.

    Not only we are witnessing the lineaments of a Russia/Iran/Turkey informal alliance; we are witnessing the alliance reading a soft riot act to the Empire: leave Syria, before you suffer yet another humiliation. And with a Kurd-directed corollary: keep away from the Americans and recognize the authority of Damascus before it’s too late.

    Ankara could never admit it in public, but the fact is Sultan Erdogan – as much against US troops in Syria as Putin and Raisi – even seems to have swiftly calibrated his previous designs on Syrian sovereign territory.

    The much-debated Turkish military operation in northern Syria in the end may be restricted to taming the YPG Kurds. The heart of the action will in fact revolve around how the Russia/Iran/Turkey/Syria alliance will make like impossible for Americans stealing Syrian oil.

    As Russia is now on “take no prisoners” mode when facing the collective West – the mantra in every intervention by Putin, Lavrov, Medvedev, Patrushev – and on top of it firmly aligned with China and Iran, it’s inevitable that every other player across West Asia and beyond is giving undivided attention to the new game in town.

    Go Caspian, Young Man

    Interconnecting West Asia and Central Asia, the Caspian Sea has finally reached the geopolitical and geoeconomic limelight – complete with the groundbreaking consensus reached by the five littoral states at the Caspian Summit in late June to officially ban NATO from these waters.

    Moreover, the leadership in Tehran in no time realized how the Caspian is the perfect, cost-conscious corridor from Iran to the heart of Russia along the Volga.

    So it’s no wonder that Putin himself, in Tehran, proposed the construction of a key stretch of highway on the St Petersburg-Persian Gulf route, much to the delight of the Iranians. Cue to the nostalgic Great Game crowd in that former “rule the waves” island getting serial heart attacks: they could never imagine the Russian “empire” finally having full access to the warm waters of the Persian Gulf.

    So we’re back to the absolutely crucial re-engineering of the International North South Transportation Corridor (INTSC) – which will play for Russia and Iran a parallel role the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) plays for China. In both cases, it’s all about multimodal Eurasia-wide trade and development corridors immune from interference by the imperial Navy.

    And here we see the renewed importance of the hyper-strategic liberation of Mariupol and Kherson by the Russian and DPR forces. The Sea of Azov is now configured as a de facto Russian lake – and the same will eventually happen to what is bound to remain of the (currently Ukrainian) Black Sea coast, Odessa included.

    So we have the ultra-strategic Caspian-Black Sea maritime corridor – via the Volga-Don canal – seamlessly connected to the Black Sea-Mediterranean, and up north, all the way to the Baltic and the fast developing Atlantic-Pacific connector, the Northern Sea Route. Call it the Russian Heartland Water Roads.

    The NATO/Five Eyes/Intermarium combo has absolutely nothing to counteract these (overland) facts on the (Heartland) ground except to throw a pile of HIMARS into the Ukrainian black hole. And of course, keep de-industrializing Europe. In contrast, those across the Global South with a keen sense of history – as in the grand debate of ideas in a Hegelian sense – and also versed in geography and trade relations are busy getting ready to hit (and profit from) the new groove.

    Have strategic ambiguity, will travel

    As much as it’s a blast to survey all the instances of Russia playing strategic ambiguity to levels capable of baffling the entire, bloated “Western intel” apparatus, what is coming to the forefront is how Putin – and Patrushev – are now willfully turning up the pain dial to tactically exhaust not only the Ukrainian black hole but the whole of NATOstan.

    Western governments are collapsing. Sanctions are being ditched – practically in secret. A Deep Freeze winter is a given. And then there’s the incoming economic/financial crisis, the Definitive Monster from Hell, as Martin Armstrong has made it quite clear: “There is no way they can get out of this other than default. If they default, they are worried about millions of people storming the parliaments of Europe…This is really a tremendous financial crisis that we are facing. They have been borrowing year after year since WWII with zero intention of paying anything back.”

    Meanwhile, Moscow may be revving up the turbines to launch – this coming Fall? In the middle of Winter? Next Spring? – a multi-spectrum Mother of All Offensives, capitalizing on a rolling series of interconnected strategies that have already rendered dazed and confused every NATOstan “analyst” in sight.

    That would explain Putin looking like he’s cheerfully whistling JJ Cale’s Call Me the Breeze in most of his public appearances. In his crucial intervention at the Strong Ideas for a New Time forum, he enthusiastically promoted the advent of “truly revolutionary” and “enormous” changes that would lead to the creation of a new, “harmonious, fairer and more community-focused and safe” world order.

    Yet that’s not for everyone: “only truly sovereign states can ensure high growth dynamics.” What that implies is that the unipolar world order, followed by states in the collective West which are hardly sovereign, is condemned to fail, as it’s “becoming a brake on the development of our civilization.

    Only a self-confident sovereign who does not expect anything constructive from the collective West can get away with describing it as “racist and neo-colonial”, bearing an ideology that “is becoming increasingly more like totalitarianism.” In the old NAM days these words would be met with an assassination.

    So will the “rules-based international order” be preserved? Not a chance, argues Putin: the changes are “irreversible.” For those about to rock, NAM 2.0 salutes you.

    Tyler Durden
    Mon, 07/25/2022 – 02:00

  • Gen. Mark Milley: China Becoming "More Aggressive" In Pacific
    Gen. Mark Milley: China Becoming “More Aggressive” In Pacific

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,.

    The top U.S. general asserted Sunday that the Chinese regime’s military has become more aggressive and dangerous over the past five years.

    Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters that the United States and its allies have conducted more and more intercepts of Chinese aircraft and ships in the Pacific. The number of unsafe encounters has also increased significantly, he said.

    “The message is the Chinese military, in the air and at sea, have become significantly more and noticeably more aggressive in this particular region,” Milley, who recently asked his staff to compile details about interactions between China and the United States and others in the region, said during a trip to Indonesia on Sunday.

    The top general, who has faced congressional blowback for holding two phone calls with a top Chinese general during the waning months of the Trump administration, did not provide specific figures about the incidents involving Chinese jets or ships.

    U.S. military officials have recently raised alarm about the possibility that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could invade Taiwan amid speculation the CCP could take inspiration from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. The CCP has stepped up its military provocations against Taiwan in 2022 as it looks to intimidate it into assimilating with the communist mainland.

    Two Chinese SU-30 fighter jets take off from an unspecified location to fly a patrol over the South China Sea, in an undated file photo. (Jin Danhua/Xinhua via AP)

    Milley also made note of an agreement between the CCP and the Solomon Islands that will allow Beijing to potentially construct a naval base in the South Pacific region.

    “This is an area in which China is trying to do outreach for their own purposes. And again, this is concerning because China is not doing it just for benign reasons,” Milley told reporters Sunday.

    “They’re trying to expand their influence throughout the region. And that has potential consequences that are not necessarily favorable to our allies and partners in the region.”

    Elaborating further, Milley said that the “vast majority” of countries in the Pacific want the U.S. military to be more involved amid the CCP threat.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 23:30

  • Entire North Carolina Police Department Resigns In Protest Over Progressive Town Manager
    Entire North Carolina Police Department Resigns In Protest Over Progressive Town Manager

    The entire North Carolina police department resigned Friday after a new town manager was hired.

    Police officers and other officials in the small town of Kenly submitted mass-resignation letters citing stress, a hostile work environment and an inability to continue the department’s long-term betterment projects, Fox News reports.

    In a letter to Town Manager Justine Jones, Police Chief Josh Gibson expressed regret toward the negative changes he felt were occurring in the department.

    “In my 21 years at the Kenly Police Department, we have seen ups and downs. But, especially in the last 3 years, we have made substantial progress that we had hoped to continue. However, due to the hostile work environment now present in the Town of Kenly, I do not believe progress is possible,” Gibson wrote.

    Kenly Police Chief Josh Gibson posted about how he “put in my 2 weeks notice along with the whole police dept.” over the “hostile work environment.”

    Gibson made the shocking announcement in a Facebook post on Thursday, saying the assistant town manager and a key clerk had joined him and his five officers in quitting in protest.

    “I have put in my 2 weeks notice along with the whole police dept.,” he wrote of the force he has served with for 21 years.

    “The new manager has created an environment I do not feel we can perform our duties and services to the community,” he wrote of Justine Jones, who took up the position early last month.

    New Kenly town manager Justine Jones.

    Local outlets report that neither the police department nor Jones has been willing to speak to the media on the nature of these complaints.

    Gibson’s letter was only one of several resignations that were made publicly available after the mass exodus.

    “It is with a heavy heart that I take this action. I have been with the town since 2004 and fully expected to finish my law enforcement career with the Town of Kenly. Unfortunately, there are decisions being made that jeopardize my safety and make me question what the future will hold for a Kenly Police Officer,” wrote officer G.W. Strong.

    While all others addressed their resignations to Gibson, the police chief himself submitted his to Jones.

    Jones was just hired as town manager last month after serving in various local government positions in other states. Her new position was celebrated by the Town of Kenly in a June press release.

    She had started on June 2 after “a nationwide search,” according to a statement which said that “Jones has dedicated her career to public service over the last 16 years during which she worked in progressively responsible positions with local governments in Minnesota, Virginia, South Carolina and North Carolina,” the town wrote in the statement. “She began her municipal career as the Executive Assistant to the City Manager and National Urban Fellow in the City of Norfolk, Virginia.”

    The release did not mention, however, how she had sued a previous employer in neighboring South Carolina for racial discrimination after she was fired in March 2015, according to WRAL.

    She accused Richland County leaders of “hostile” treatment and for not paying her fairly because she was black and had a disability, court docs show. She also accused the county of discriminating against her because she was a “whistleblower” who “reported serious fraud, wrongdoing, and violations of the law.”

    The lawsuit was voluntarily dismissed in April 2017, court records show, without elaborating on why. Before getting hired by Kenly, she listed herself as “Principal CEO” of her own consulting company, Word of Mouth Realtime, her LinkedIn shows.

    Police leadership and active duty officers were joined in their resignation by other officials.

    “I have truly enjoyed working for The Town the last four years. Due to the current situations and the stress in the work area lately, my main concern is my health, and right now I need to focus on my wellbeing. The work area is very hostile and I will not let myself be around that kind of atmosphere,” wrote Christy Thomas, utility clerk for the town of Kenly.

    Some outgoing government employees kept their messages curt and to the point — including Town Clerk Sharon Evans.

    “I will be retiring sooner than I had planned. This is my two weeks notice as of today. I can no longer work under the stress,” wrote Evans.

    Meanwhile, Johnston County Sheriff Steve Bizzell assured WRAL that his deputies would be “stepping up” to cover for the missing Kenly cops.

    “I will be there for the people of Kenly, and they can rest assured they will have deputies patrolling the streets,” he insisted. If not, they can just get the progressive new town manager to contain what is soon sure to be rampant, uncontrolled crime.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 23:00

  • "This Is Total BS": Musk Denies Banging Sergey Brin's Wife, Calls WSJ "Sub-Tabloid"
    “This Is Total BS”: Musk Denies Banging Sergey Brin’s Wife, Calls WSJ “Sub-Tabloid”

    Update: Musk has denied the entire Wall Street Journal report – tweeting Sunday night “This is total bs. Sergey and I are friends and were at a party together last night!

    I’ve only seen Nicole twice in three years, both times with many other people around. Nothing romantic,” he added.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    When asked if there was anything fans could do, Musk replied: “Call them out on it, I guess. WSJ is supposed to have a high standard for journalism and, right now, they are way sub tabloid.”

    I work crazy hours, so there just isn’t much time for shenanigans,” Musk continued in another reply. “None of the key people involved in these alleged wrongdoings were even interviewed!”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    So, Kirsten Grind and Emily Glazer of the Wall Street Journal, what say you?

    *  *  *

    Elon Musk allegedly ‘begged forgiveness’ after having a brief affair last fall with Sergey Brin’s wife, Nicole Shanahan, which prompted the Google co-founder to file for divorce earlier this year, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter.

    Mr. Brin filed for divorce from Nicole Shanahan in January of this year, citing “irreconcilable differences,” according to records filed in Santa Clara County Superior Court. The divorce filing was made several weeks after Mr. Brin learned of the brief affair, those people said.

    At the time of the alleged liaison in early December, Mr. Brin and his wife were separated but still living together, according to a person close to Ms. Shanahan. In the divorce filing, Mr. Brin cited Dec. 15, 2021, as the date of the couple’s separation. -WSJ

    At a party earlier this year, Musk reportedly dropped to one knee in front of Brin and begged forgiveness, apologizing profusely for the transgression. Brin acknowledged the apology, but still isn’t speaking ‘regularly’ to Musk, the people said.

    The tryst happened shortly after Musk broke up with his girlfriend, Grimes, in September.

    Musk and Brin had been longtime friends, with Musk saying for years that he regularly crashed at Brin’s Silicon Valley house. Brin, meanwhile, gave Musk around $500,000 for Tesla during the 2008 financial crisis, when the EV maker was struggling to increase production. In return, Musk gave Brin one of Tesla’s first all-electric SUVs in 2015.

    But in recent months, there’s been a ‘growing tension’ between the two – with Brin reportedly ordering his financial advisers to sell personal investments in Musk’s companies.

    Brin and Shanahan met seven years ago at the Wanderlust yoga retreat, and had been married for nearly four years after previous marriages; Brin to Anne Wojcicki – founder of 23andMe and the sister of YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki, and Shanahan to a finance executive.

    Brin is officially the 10th richest person on earth according to Forbes, with a net worth of 89.9 billion. Musk is #1 at 253.4 billion.

    The two had reportedly been facing issues in their marriage “primarily because of Covid pandemic shutdowns and the care of their 3-year-old daughter,” according to people familiar with their relationship.

    Mr. Brin and Ms. Shanahan are now involved in divorce mediation, with Ms. Shanahan seeking more than $1 billion, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

    The two sides have yet to come to an agreement, with Mr. Brin’s side claiming that Ms. Shanahan is asking for much more than her prenuptial agreement entitles her to, the people said. Ms. Shanahan’s side is arguing that her request is only a fraction of Mr. Brin’s $95 billion fortune, and that she signed the prenuptial agreement under duress, while pregnant, the people said. -WSJ

    Over the past two months, Musk has been accused of whipping his dick out in front of a SpaceX flight attendant, which he has denied. He also reportedly had two children with a female executive at Neuralink – bringing the total number of Musk children to 10, one of whom has publicly disavowed him.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 22:45

  • Three Months That Wrecked The World
    Three Months That Wrecked The World

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

    The most salient question of our time is: Who destroyed the world?

    We know the “what” of that question already…

    It was the lockdowns, the spending, the monetary insanity, the mandates and the overwhelming and ghastly explosion in the forces of command and control imposed all over the world.

    This broke everything.

    It is nowhere near being put back together again. In fact, it is getting worse.

    The main issue concerns the who.

    This matters if we are ever to gain a clear picture of how the happy life of 2019 turned into the hellscape of 2022.

    Conspirators Like to Brag

    To assist the discovery project, I’ve become a voracious and very close reader of every opportunistic autobiographical account on which I can get my hands. At issue, above all else, is that amazing period between Feb. 1 and April 1 of 2020.

    Three months that wrecked the world.

    Who were the players and why did they do it and why did they persist in their egregious errors? What were their motivations?

    I have by now a complete bibliography that perhaps I will share at some point. At issue right now is the autobio of one Dr. Deborah Birx, aka the “scarf lady” who pushed so hard from those early days, all throughout the rest of the year, crucially through the November election that ended up pushing Trump out of office.

    She was never a fan as she makes clear, but she claims that her politics never affected her devotion to “the science.”

    Yeah, we’ve heard that one before. In any case, it was she who was tasked with doing the really crucial thing of talking Donald Trump into green-lighting the lockdowns that began on March 15 and continued to their final hard-core deployment on March 16. This was the “15 Days to Flatten the Curve.”

    Her book admits that it was a lie from the beginning.

    “We had to make these palatable to the administration by avoiding the obvious appearance of a full Italian lockdown,” she writes.

    “At the same time, we needed the measures to be effective at slowing the spread, which meant matching as closely as possible what Italy had done — a tall order. We were playing a game of chess in which the success of each move was predicated on the one before it.”

    In other words, she wanted to go full CCP but didn’t want to say that. Crucially, she knew for sure that two weeks was not the real plan. “I left the rest unstated: that this was just a starting point.”

    It Was a Lie

    “No sooner had we convinced the Trump administration to implement our version of a two-week shutdown than I was trying to figure out how to extend it,” she admits:

    Fifteen Days to Slow the Spread was a start, but I knew it would be just that. I didn’t have the numbers in front of me yet to make the case for extending it longer, but I had two weeks to get them.

    However hard it had been to get the 15-day shutdown approved, getting another one would be more difficult by many orders of magnitude. In the meantime, I waited for the blowback, for someone from the economic team to call me to the principal’s office or confront me at a task force meeting. None of this happened.

    Bingo.

    It was a solution in search of evidence she did not have. She told Trump that the evidence was there anyway. She actually tricked him into believing that locking down hundreds of millions of people was somehow magically going to make a virus that everyone would eventually get go away.

    Meanwhile, the economy was wrecked all over the world, as most governments in the world followed what the U.S. did.

    Trump was not and is not an idiot. She reports that by April 1, he had lost confidence in her. He might have intuited that he had been tricked. He stopped speaking to her. On the other hand, Trump had a major problem. He had made a dramatic decision. It was a disastrous one but he learned from long experience that admitting error only fed the media that wanted him dead. So he refused. He refused to admit the problem.

    His solution was to pretend like it was the right thing and that it saved millions (no evidence!) but that now was the time to open the economy. It took another several weeks but finally, he went full-on with an opening agenda. He came to realize that he had destroyed the Trump economy, the ticket to his reelection, by his own hand!

    Tragedy in Our Times

    This is a story of Biblical proportions, at once desperately sad and tragic, a story of fallibility matched by ego, a story of enormous betrayal that played off character flaws that ended up wrecking hope and prosperity for billions of people.

    Once Trump turned against her and eventually found other people to provide good advice like the tremendous Scott Atlas, Birx turned to rallying around her an inner circle (Anthony Fauci, Robert Redfield and a few others) plus assembling a realm of protection outside of her.

    For example, Scott Atlas tried to stop the testing madness (you remember it well) and changed the CDC guidance. “Less than a week later,” she writes, “Bob and I had finished our rewrite of the guidance and surreptitiously posted it. We had restored the emphasis on testing to detect areas where silent spread was occurring. It was a risky move, and we hoped everyone in the White House would be too busy campaigning to realize what Bob and I had done. We weren’t being transparent with the powers that be in the White House…”

    Yikes!

    Et Tu, Brute?

    And guess who provided her protection within the White House. I will let her tell you:

    Ever since Vice President Pence told me to do what I needed to do, I’d engaged in very blunt conversations with the governors. I spoke the truth that some White House senior advisors weren’t willing to acknowledge. Censoring my reports and putting up guidance that negated the known solutions was only going to perpetuate COVID-19’s vicious circle. What I couldn’t sneak past the gatekeepers in my reports, I said in person.

    Did you catch that? The name is Pence. She names him out directly as her protector. Mr. Earnest, Mr. Honest, Mr. Moral and Good. He clearly teamed up with her and her gang to keep the hysteria roiling from March all the way through November.

    Didn’t Shakespeare teach us something about this? If you are looking for the betrayer, the slayer, the plotter, the person who fells the leader, always and everywhere look to the No. 2 in charge. There you will find the real source of the problem. Et Tu, Brute?

    What followed seems inevitable in retrospect. The inflation, the broken lives, the desperation and now the growing hunger and demoralization and educational losses and cultural destruction, all of it came in the wake of these fateful days.

    The plotters usually admit it in the end, taking credit, like criminals who cannot resist returning to the scene of the crime.

    And what a crime it was.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 22:30

  • Hunter Biden 'Almost Certainly' Broke FARA Laws: Report
    Hunter Biden ‘Almost Certainly’ Broke FARA Laws: Report

    Hunter Biden’s failure to register as a foreign agent while conducting business overseas, much like former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort, almost certainly violated foreign lobbying laws under the federal Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).

    According to the New York Post, while Hunter registered as a lobbyist for domestic interests (“a gig which so annoyed President Obama that Biden was forced to drop it in 2008“), he never registered as a “foreign principal” under the 1938 law – a crime which carries a punishment of up to five years in federal prison and a $250,000 fine.

    We aren’t holding our breath. That said…

    The Post’s examination of Biden’s infamous abandoned laptop in the last year has exposed myriad foreign business schemes the then-Vice President’s son tried to shepherd. Last week The Post revealed dozens of sit-downs between Hunter and Joe Biden that were frequently scheduled just days after Hunter visited with foreign officials. -NY Post

    “The recent disclosures of additional foreign contacts has only strengthened what was already a strong case. Indeed, in the last few weeks, the compelling basis for a FARA charge has becomes unassailable and undeniable,” according to law professor Jonathan Turley. “The influence peddling schemes directly reference the President and [Joe Biden] is repeatedly cited as a possible recipient of funds.”

    And while a CNN report from last week indicated that the DOJ is focusing on Hunter’s tax issues and alleged violations of federal firearm regulations, the first son’s foreign dealings have undoubtedly been part of the investigation – particularly since the Post exposed evidence of extensive foreign dealings from Hunter’s “laptop from hell,” which they published in October 2020 shortly before the US election.

    The inquiry began as a tax probe in 2018 but has expanded considerably since a series of New York Post exposes showed how Hunter Biden’s private business interests became commingled with his father’s public career. The revelations were contained on a laptop abandoned by Hunter Biden at a Delaware computer repair shop in April 2019.  -NY Post

    Yet, despite potential violations of foreign lobbying laws and money laundering – insiders say Hunter could receive a “generous” plea agreement.

    House Republicans, meanwhile, say that should they take back control of the chamber in the upcoming midterm elections, they’ll launch their own investigation into Hunter’s overseas exploits.

    Let’s review some of Hunter’s dealings…

    For starters, he worked for CCP-linked Chinese energy company CEFC, which sought to gain a foothold into the United States. After the New York Times questioned Hunter’s involvement in 2018, Joe Biden left him a voicemail in which he told his son “I think you’re clear.”

    Republicans have accused CEFC of being an arm of the Chinese government. In 2017, the year Joe Biden left the Vice Presidency, Hunter received a $1 million retainer for his services as a lawyer. CEFC official Patrick Ho was later convicted on international bribery and money laundering charges on unrelated work in Africa.

    When the Hunter Biden laptop story broke in October 2020 (and was immediately suppressed by the media), the Bidens allegedly accepted a $5 million interest-free loan from CEFC that enraged their business partner, Tony Bobulinski – who flipped on the Bidens following a Senate report which revealed the $5 million ‘loan.’

    Text messages from Bobulinski also reveal an effort to conceal Joe Biden’s involvement in Hunter’s business dealings, while Tony has also confirmed that the “Big guy” described in a leaked email is none other than Joe Biden himself.

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    More on Hunter’s dealings from the Post:

    After additional revelations from The Post in 2020, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) sent a letter to the Justice Department demanding a review of possible FARA violations. Former Hunter Biden business partner Tony Bobulinski said in public comments at the time that the Chinese saw Hunter Biden “as a political or influence investment.”

    Since then, I’ve only seen and gathered more records and information that confirm that [Hunter Biden and his uncle James Biden] are closely linked to foreign interests,” Grassley told The Post.

    While Ukrainian energy company Burisma paid Hunter Biden $83,333 a month to sit on its board, Hunter Biden introduced Vadym Pozharskyi — one of the company’s top executives — to his father, emails show. Less than a year later, Vice President Biden pressured government officials in Ukraine into firing a prosecutor who was investigating the company.

    Meanwhile, Hunter arranged for the former president of Columbia, Andrés Pastrana Arango, to have a sit-down with his father during a March 2, 2012 meeting.

    In Nov. 2015, Hunter met with Crown Prince Alexander Karađorđević of Yugoslavia and his wife, Crown Princess Katherine of Serbia, who told the Post that they asked Hunter to ‘put in a word’ with his father to help rehab the royal palace in Belgrade.

    If Hunter relayed the request for US government assistance then that would be a FARA registrable event,” said FARA expert Craig Engle, who leads the political law practice at Arent Fox Schiff. “Given the nature of the client, given the nature of the work, and given his relationship with Joe Biden as demonstrated on his calendar, it makes it likely that FARA is part of an investigation,” he added.

    Emails on Hunter’s laptop also reveal concerns over FARA violations – with Eric Schwerin, president of Hunter’s investment firm Rosemont Seneca Partners – discussing the issue.

    “Was reading an article saying how [former White House Chief of Staff William] Daley was never a ‘registered’ lobbyist although he directed [Telecoms company] SBC and JP Morgan’s lobbying efforts. Also the article noted that he was registered as Foreign Lobbyist under FARA at one point … sometimes I wonder why we stress about this so much,” Schwerin wrote to Hunter in January, 2011.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 22:00

  • Most Chinese Property Junk Bonds Are Trading Below 35 Cents
    Most Chinese Property Junk Bonds Are Trading Below 35 Cents

    By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

    1. China’s mortgage-boycott problem is still growing. More homebuyers halted payments on unfinished apartments, affecting at least 319 projects, up from 235 a week ago, according to Capital Economics. By all accounts, the situation is still manageable. Most economists estimate that the affected loans make up about 1%-2% of China’s $5.8 trillion in mortgages.

    But the problem is that Beijing has yet to break the vicious circle in the housing market. The boycotts undermine confidence of new homebuyers, which reduces the cash flow of troubled developers and causes more of the type of construction delays that motivated the boycotts in the first place.

    Already, the top 100 private developers, which account for more than a third of the projects under construction, are experiencing liquidity risks, according to Goldman Sachs. Reflecting this risk, about 73% of China’s high-yield property bonds are trading below 35 cents on the dollar, a level deemed as distressed by Goldman’s analysts. Left unsolved, it could quickly create problems in the banking system.

    Source: Goldman Sachs

    What’s the solution? Policy makers are considering remedies, including allowing a grace period for mortgage payments of affected homeowners. Bank of America’s economists led by Helen Qiao expect local governments and state-owned enterprises to step in to complete the unfinished projects. But they also warn that it may take time to resolve the issue, and governments of lower-tier cities may not have sufficient funds to come to the rescue.

    Source: Bank of America

    2. The housing troubles and sporadic Covid outbreaks took momentum out of the economic rebound. The consensus 2022 GDP forecast in a Bloomberg survey has declined to 4%, and a number of economists, including at Bloomberg Economics, only see a growth rate of 3%. The outperformance of Chinese stocks since last month also has faded.

    In response to the latest housing drama, the PBOC kept liquidity abundant, with interbank borrowing costs dropping below 1.5% for the first time since December 2020. Meanwhile, traders took advantage of the cheap funding to build leverage in the bond market, sending the overnight repo trading volume to records almost on a daily basis.

    3. Recession risks keep rising as central banks tighten monetary policy. A survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global on Friday showed activities in both the euro zone and US contracted. The ECB ended eight years of negative interest rates with a 50bp hike last week. The Fed is expected to raise rates by 75 bps this week for a second consecutive meeting. But traders are betting that the Fed will slow down the rate increases afterward and wrap the tightening campaign by December.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 21:45

  • ESG Is A Globalist 'Scam' Meant To Usher In 'One World Government': James Lindsay
    ESG Is A Globalist ‘Scam’ Meant To Usher In ‘One World Government’: James Lindsay

    Authored by Cindy Drukier and Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

    James Lindsay, author of “Race Marxism” and other books challenging woke narratives, has taken environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scores into his crosshairs, calling ESG a weapon in the hands of “social justice warriors” to shake down corporations and a tool in the hands of those seeking to impose “one world government.”

    Lindsay told NTD’s “The Nation Speaks” program in a recent interview that the ESG scoring system was initially conceived as a way for investors to track the likelihood that a corporation would be a good bet for investment over the long term.

    “In the early 2000s, a few very socially minded socially activist investors got together and thought up this idea that, well, it’s probably the case that companies that are bad at environmental policy, bad with social responsibility, and bad corporate governance are going to be bad bets in long term investment,” he said.

    James Lindsay, co-author of “Cynical Theories,” in New York on Feb. 28, 2020. (Brendon Fallon/The Epoch Times)

    Lindsay believes the ESG concept was suspect from the very beginning and it’s unclear whether higher scores translated into good long-term profitability for participating corporations.

    Worse still, he argued that, over time, ESG scores have been hijacked and “weaponized” by “social justice warriors.”

    “They have the leverage to be able to use this like a … financial gun to the head of any corporation that doesn’t do what it wants them to do,” he said, calling it a “blatant weaponization.”

    “In fact, it’s racketeering is what it is, is just criminal racketeering, using what looks like a responsible measurement tool as the mechanism. So nobody’s directly responsible for engaging in what is really a mob shakedown of corporations,” he argued.

    Lack of transparency in how ESG scores are determined is an open door for abuse, Lindsay further contended.

    Even more troubling is Lindsay’s argument that ESG fits into a “broader global agenda” that he said wants to make the West energy poor—to the benefit of countries like China—and as a way of social control.

    “They want to implement the exact same control system because they see that it works to control people in China,” adding that, in his view, the “power elite” in the West “often do want to control people.”

    “And so they would be using that as a tool to try to get toward one world government,” Lindsay said.

    Insider Intelligence estimates that, in 2022, there was $41 trillion in ESG assets under management worldwide.

    By 2025, this figure is expected to climb to $50 trillion.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 21:30

  • 3 Trucking Veterans Reveal Why They Closed Their Businesses Amid The "Great Purge"
    3 Trucking Veterans Reveal Why They Closed Their Businesses Amid The “Great Purge”

    By Rachel Premack of FreightWaves

    Back in 2018, when trucking was red-hot, Texas native Mike Dow got famous — if just for a moment. An article in The Washington Post featured his insights on why companies were struggling to retain truckers

    Dow was as confident as ever. That year, he and his brother founded their own trucking company. He told the Post reporter he was planning bringing in a serious salary: up to $120,000.

    That turned out to be a modest estimate. In 2021 alone, Dow grossed up to $375,000, thanks in part to retail’s wild uptick. Retail sales grew by 14% in 2021, while it increased on average 3.7% annually from 2010 to 2019. “When you run your own business, it’s a 24-hour-a-day job,” Dow told FreightWaves. “It consumes your life.” 

    Business slowed down as the months went on — and not for the better. Spot rates for dry van, which is what Dow Brothers Transportation specialized in, declined by 24% from the beginning of the year to the week of July 17, according to data from load board Truckstop.com. Expenses, meanwhile, have soared. The break-even cost to run a truck in 2022 is $3.27 per mile, significantly up from $2.16 per mile last year. 

    That spelled the end for Dow Brothers Transportation. Dow and his brother ultimately shuttered their company, sold off their trucks, and got regular jobs earlier this year. Now Dow hauls construction equipment around the bustling Dallas area. He’s home every night for dinner. 

    Big, public trucking companies are reporting their second-quarter earnings. So far, it’s been gangbusters. But small trucking companies are suffering amid the collapse in spot rates, increase in diesel prices and ongoing challenges in finding equipment. Despite rates still being historically high, truckers say that they’re not high enough to deal with the inflated cost of everything else.

    “Nobody has the same cost structure on anything,” Thom Albrecht, chief financial officer of transportation insurance agency Reliance Partners, told FreightWaves in June. 

    It’s sparking what one freight broker called trucking’s “Great Purge,” with small trucking companies going out of business at a historically high rate. Dry van companies like Dow’s are particularly at risk as the pandemic’s unhinged retail spend cools. Truckers that haul more specialized freight, like grain feed, are still chugging along. 

    FreightWaves spoke to Dow and two other longtime truckers to learn why 2022 has been the year that killed their businesses — and what they think it means for the industry.

    Why the ‘Great Purge’ is hurting small truckers more than big ones

    The three truck drivers all operated in different parts of North America and in different industries. But they shared one common fear: Big trucking companies are getting bigger, and it’s at the expense of the owner-operator. 

    “Those small mom and pops have to compete with the big boys,” Dow said. “They’re not always successful. There will always be a need for small companies, but those conglomerates are trying to push us out.”

    Data enthusiasts might disagree with Dow’s assessment. Trucking has become increasingly dominated by smaller carriers since the pandemic. One particularly stunning number shows that. Avery Vise of FTR Transportation Intelligence previously told FreightWaves that almost 195,000 new trucking companies entered the industry from July 2020 to June 2022. Just 86,000 new carriers entered the industry during the second-highest 23-month period. 

    What’s more, about 70% of those new carriers consisted of just one truck, Vise said. Big carriers haven’t grown by the same rate. In fact, Vise estimated that 6-7% of capacity shifted from fleets with more than 100 drivers to fleets with fewer than 100 drivers in the past two years.

    Many of the small, new carriers signed on to operate on the spot market. (A quick note for trucking newbies: The spot market consists of loads that are available on demand, while the contract market is, yes, contracted freight. Small trucking companies are bigger on the spot market, and large ones are bigger on the contract market.) 

    Rates on the spot market seemed to break a new record each month of 2021, diverting more and more cash to small trucking companies. Contract rates didn’t climb at the same rate, and mega-fleets didn’t either

    Now the big carriers seem to be regaining their share. Large fleets are better able to navigate market downturns as they’re more likely to have hefty cash reserves, long-standing contracts with deep-pocketed customers and, perhaps most importantly for this downturn, bulk discounts when buying fuel and equipment. 

    Unable to weather this downturn, we saw a record number of trucking companies shutter this spring, with more likely to come. Many are expected to join larger trucking companies.  

    In May, net motor carrier revocations hit a record high, according to an analysis of federal data by FTR. January and March of this year were the previous records. 

    As the above graph shows, revocations of trucking authorities reached a record high in May, hitting nearly 9,300. The yellow bar represents some 4,000 revocations due to a processing company that unexpectedly shuttered. Even counting that out, though, the net revocations peaked. 

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    Meanwhile, big truckers are enjoying record quarters. According to the FMIC-Cowen Index, which tracks tens of billions of freight spend dollars annually, rates on the spot van market are 15.3% down from this time last year. Meanwhile, contract van rates are up 34.8%. 

    Second-quarter results are just rolling in, and they’ve already been strong, with mega-carriers like Knight-Swift, J.B. Hunt and Marten all crushing expectations. Each company saw the biggest gains from the parts of their companies that aren’t traditional trucking; Knight-Swift earned big on its less-than-truckload division, J.B. Hunt on intermodal and Marten on brokerage. 

    Even amid what Susquehanna Financial Group’s Bascome Majors called the “coming freight recession” in a Tuesday note, trucking and logistics stocks are outperforming the larger stock market. 

    “What’s going to happen is going to be tough,” said truck brokerage owner Chris Tucker, who was first to keenly dub the current market conditions the “Great Purge.” “It’s going to be painful for a lot of people. Very few people will be left standing.”

    Longtime truckers have already shut down. We talked to three of them:

    Dan Chidester, owner-operator since 1981: ‘Fuel has to come down to $3 a gallon to survive’

    For a young Dan Chidester back in the 1970s, it was time for a “real job.” He tuned up race cars and was a salesman for a high-performance Chevrolet dealership. But when he got married, Chidester took a job fixing trucks in a field that is about as different from drag racing as you can get: a local bread factory. 

    “I hated to go punch in that clock every day,” Chidester, now 71, said. “That was the reason I got into trucking. I wanted to work for myself. I’ve been that type.”

    A friend told him about the opportunities hauling freight. He quit the bread company and got a CDL. Suddenly, the western Michigan native was traveling the country — loading up on potatoes from North Carolina and grapefruit from South Carolina, talking to people from all over. 

    Being an independent truck driver was challenging. His marriage ended in 1987, the same year his truck literally burst into flames. Chidester found himself once so down on his luck that all he could afford was a loaf of bread, a bottle of mustard and a pack of bologna. He’s outlived recession after recession; the trucking industry goes into downturns twice as often as the rest of the economy.

    His luck has changed. In 2021, Chidester only worked three or four days of the week and frequently ran empty when driving back up to his home. But he said his rate averaged around $4 per mile, even with the empty miles. 

    Chidester mostly hauled refrigerated goods from Michigan to major retail warehouses around the Upper Midwest, like a Walmart near Fort Wayne, Indiana, or a Costco near Detroit. 

    “For me, every trip is an adventure,” Chidester said. “I’ve been doing it since 1981, but I’m just like a 10-year-old kid on Christmas Eve when I know I’m going trucking tomorrow.”

    But Chidester curtailed his trips in 2022. Rates began to decline in March. By May, they didn’t make up for the cost of running his truck. “Fuel has to come down to $3 a gallon again to survive, to make any money,” he said. 

    On June 10, Chidester quietly let his decades-old trucking authority go and canceled his insurance.

    There’s a creed among some owner-operators: Don’t haul cheap freight. The idea is that if no one takes poor-paying jobs, brokers will be forced to raise their rates. But with an intensely fragmented trucking industry, it’s hard for small truckers to organize. 

    It wasn’t always like this. When Chidester started in trucking, the industry was still regulated, which meant that the federal government had limits on the companies that could haul most types of freight. Only 17,000 trucking companies existed. Now there are more than 350,000 owner-operators alone, according to the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association. 

    “They can’t agree on anything, it’s all broken up. Everybody started fighting for freight and the whole business went down a rathole,” Chidester said. 

    As a result of deregulation in 1980, freight rates tumbled and trucker pay has decreased by up to 50%, according to estimates by Wayne State University’s Michael Belzer. Experts say deregulation and cheap trucking have made it possible for big-box retail to build robust supply chains and quickly scale, edging out local businesses.

    Chidester has counted some of those retail behemoths as his biggest clients. This spring, they slashed pay. The pay for one 150-mile trip dropped from $1,400 to $900 in just two weeks. Uber Freight economist Mazan Danaf previously told FreightWaves that this spring saw the fastest declines in spot market pay in recent history.

    Chidester can stay home and refuse cheap freight, but he knows he’s in a unique position. After all, his equipment is paid off. 

    “Most of these guys are running, running, running,” Chidester said. “The more they run, the longer this [fall in rates] will continue to go.

    “They’ve got families, payments, bills,” he added. “I was in their shoes back in the early ’80s. I didn’t make any money. I just barely hung on.”

    He could make a killing selling his truck, as prices for used trucks are still unusually high, though they’re quickly declining. But Chidester is still scheming to get back out on the road.  

    “I miss it, oh man,” Chidester said. “I’d like to get out for just a couple days. It’s not about the money so much. I just like to drive and I like playing the game. And I’m good at it.” 

    Jason and Kerry Kraft, owner-operators since 2007: ‘She doesn’t even want to say the word truck anymore’

    Jason and Kerry Kraft decided to become truck drivers for a simple reason: They wanted to be together all the time. So 15 years ago, they opened their own trucking business. 

    They weren’t ordinary truckers. The Krafts, who live in Edmonton, Alberta, hauled tanks and other equipment for the Canadian military. They moved refrigerated loads and 6-foot-wide tires for mining vehicles on the infamous ice roads. As team drivers, they could score high-priority loads that need to be moved quickly. 

    “We ran hard 24 hours a day,” said Jason, 45. “We don’t take vacations. We haven’t even gone on a honeymoon.”

    And they had the cash to prove it. In 2021, they grossed nearly $500,000 — one of their best years. 

    It wasn’t bad rates that took down the Krafts. Instead, it was the challenge of getting repairs. Once in Toronto, they needed a truck starter, but the only one they could find was back in Edmonton. Another part took three weeks to source and install, when it would normally be readily available.  

    Instead of driving, the Krafts found themselves increasingly staying in hotels and waiting for repairs. “It’s not the price of the part that’s killing you anymore,” Jason said. “It’s the downtime.”

    The final straw was a bad — and very expensive — repair. A “shoddy mechanic,” as Jason said, replaced the truck frame with a component that had already been damaged. When they got the truck back, it looked worse than when they left it at the shop — and it cost them $50,000. (By the way, if you want to learn more about the Krafts’ story, listen to their appearance on my colleagues’ podcast, Back the Truck Up.)

    The Krafts searched for parts but couldn’t find any. Jason said if he were part of a larger company, it would have been easier to place an order, as he would be buying in bulk.

    “All these mega-carriers have all the slots for building a truck for the next three to four years,” Kraft said. “That’s another way I’m feeling the mega-carriers are squeezing out the small guy.” 

    The Krafts finally shut down in June. They sold their trailer for more than what they paid for it in 2018, which was a bright spot. 

    For Kerry, 39, in particular, Jason said it was demoralizing. “She doesn’t even want to say the word truck anymore.” 

    Working regular jobs has been a shock for the couple and their dachshunds, Diesel and Turbo. 

    “We worked for 15 years and now we’re at entry-level jobs because we don’t have the verified experience to do anything,” Jason said. “We don’t have the education. Now it’s like you have to sell yourself on paper. We don’t have the credentials to get a job anymore.”

    Mike Dow, owner-operator since 2018: ‘Operating at a loss was the biggest deciding factor’

    These past few years, it seemed like Dow was the only one working anymore. Federal stimulus checks were a lifesaver for many out-of-work Americans, but it also helped drive unprecedented container volumes into American ports, which were filled with televisions, furniture and clothing that people were spending excess cash on. 

    Dow and his brother happily hauled all of those goods. 

    “You never saw so many people out in the park bike riding and kayaking,” Dow said. “The money has run out, so now everyone has to go back to work.”

    The rapid downturn in consumer spending hurt Dow and his brother, who shuttered their trucking company and got company driving jobs this year. 

    Retail spend saw a 1% uptick in June, according to federal data. But there’s still a key mismatch between just how many truckers have flooded the industry versus the amount of freight that’s available for them to haul. Since the beginning of the pandemic, federal data reflects that there’s been a 10% increase in drivers available for hire

    For those truckers who are seeing decreased rates and increased costs for everything else they need to buy to operate, it’s challenging to keep going. As the spot market softened and expenses piled up, Dow realized his company was hemorrhaging money. 

    He still owed money on his truck, and he couldn’t make the monthly payments. The only way to keep the company, it seemed, was to take out a second mortgage on his home. He didn’t want to do that. The price for a typical used truck doubled and even tripled over 2021. Unusually high truck payments were fine when matched with ultra-high spot rates, but the crash in those rates along with the increase in the price of everything else have left some truckers scrambling. 

    Record-high diesel prices also crushed Dow, along with an average insurance cost uptick of 20% from 2019 to 2022. Maintenance costs have increased by 30% over the same time period. 

    “Operating at a loss was the biggest deciding factor,” Dow said. “You can try to ride it out for a bit to see if the trend swings back around or you can be ahead of the curve and get out before everyone else starts getting out.”

    He chose the latter and was able to recoup some cash by selling equipment. Dow now has more free time than ever. He’s using some of that time to ponder about his life as a trucker, which has left him with two divorces and the inability to spend more time at home as his kids were growing up. He shared the following, somewhat chilling analogy: 

    “It’s like going to an amusement park. You’re looking forward to ride it, waiting in line for three or four hours. The ride is 45 seconds, then it’s over. You’re thinking, ‘That was fun. It was cool.’ But in the same breath, you’re like, ‘I waited three hours for that?’ 

    “That’s how trucking is. The ride is pretty much over, I’m through the loop-the-loops and they’re pumping the air brakes.  

    “I’m 52. I have 10 to 15 years before I retire, if I’m lucky enough to make it to retirement. The thrill of it is gone. It’s just the last little leg before I get off.” 

    He’s thinking about opening up a deep-sea fishing business, combining business with pleasure. “The business I’m in now is not so pleasurable,” Dow said, laughing. 

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 20:30

  • Democrats Prepare To Unleash Hell On Fed Chair Powell For The Coming Recession
    Democrats Prepare To Unleash Hell On Fed Chair Powell For The Coming Recession

    Something curious took place a month ago during Powell’s semi-annual testimony before a (still-Democrat controlled) Congress: whereas it was quite clear that Biden was calling Powell and demanding an end to inflation (which the White House had unleashed with its trillions in stimmies), most other vocal Democrats, and especially the progressives, were warning the Fed Chair that there is hell to pay if the Fed’s hikes push the economy into recession.

    “What’s worse than high inflation and low unemployment?” asked Senator Elizabeth Warren as the Fed chief gave congressional testimony last month. “It’s high inflation and a recession with millions of people out of work…. I hope you’ll reconsider that,” she added, “before you drive this economy off a cliff.”

    Which is funny, because in recent days Biden – who was adamant in “explaining” that the soaring inflation of 2022 was out of his control and was solely “Putin’s price hikes” – has been taking credit for the modest dip in gasoline prices thanks to the most grotesque abuse of a Y-axis in history…

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    … even though as we have repeatedly made it clear the only reason any commodity prices are low, and that includes oil and gas, is because most now see a recession as inevitable…

    … and yes, while gasoline prices will certainly drop during the coming recession (however briefly), it is absolutely certain that millions of people will also lose their jobs thanks to the Powell-induced recession.

    Which takes us to the main event this week, when still scorching price pressures will push the Fed to raise interest rates 75 basis points on Wednesday for the second straight month at which point the economy is expected to finally crack, and as even as Bloomberg now admits catching up to what we said months ago, “the tougher it acts, the harder it gets to avoid a sharp increase in unemployment and the subsequent political fallout.”

    “There has been more than enough blame for inflation to go around,” said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer for MBB Capital Partners LLC. If unemployment rises, “constituents will scream and senators and House members will have to deflect blame, and that will find its way to Jay Powell.”

    Powell, of course, has a dual mandate from Congress for maximum employment and price stability, and has already repeatedly admitted he got the inflation call wrong last year and were slow to react, making him a willing scapegoat for what comes next.

    And what comes next is simple: with Democrats facing catastrophic losses in the November midterm elections from voters furious over Biden’s (not Putin’s) inflation, some are starting to warn Powell to expect consequences if rising joblessness is the cost of a Fed error. Which it already is as we recently reported and as even Goldman has admitted.

    To be sure, the economy still looks in reasonable shape with unemployment near a 50-year low of 3.6%, although those are deeply lagging indicators, especially when lipsticked over with the BLS’ increasingly more grotesque seasonal adjustments- leading and concurrent indicators confirm the labor market has already snapped; indeed, critics told Bloomberg a recession will be hard to avoid over the coming year, and the path to a soft landing is getting narrower as the Fed steps up the pace of rate increases.

    Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat on the Banking Committee, didn’t favor a formal review of the Fed’s performance on inflation but did say that it was clear in hindsight that mistakes had been made.

    “I think history will look back and say we had way too easy a money policy for way too long,” he told Bloomberg although he certainly didn’t complain when policy was too easy yet inflation remained low and when all the clueless hacks – such as fax and internet expert Paul Krugman – were saying it was transitory. It much “easier” to complain now that inflation is on the verge of prefixes such as “hyper.”

    A key question is how entrenched inflation has become. The latest read on consumer prices, which rose 9.1% in the year through June, is not encouraging. Fed officials forecast moderating growth with inflation declining over the next two years with little cost to jobs.

    But as with every Fed forecast, that one too is garbage and at best wishful thinking, say some economists, because it hinges on the public being convinced that price pressures will ease in the future, and that supply tangles will unravel.

    Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, says the Fed is going to have to brake the economy much harder to get inflation down to its 2% goal. (The Fed targets a different price gauge whose latest reading was 6.3%.)

    “Simply getting relief on the supply side, isn’t enough” to return inflation back to 2%, said Luzzetti. “You need to impact demand materially.”

    He sees the Fed raising rates to a range of 4% to 4.25% by the first quarter of next year, compared with 1.5% to 1.75% today, which will drive the unemployment rate to 5.5%.

    Bloomberg Economics also estimates the unemployment rate will peak around 5% in this Fed tightening cycle; meanwhile the odds of a recession according to the median forecast- which exclude such outliers as Deutsche and Bank of America, both of which have made a recession their base case – are approaching 50%.

    “Even a shallow recession can lead to the unemployment rate jumping by 2 percentage points,” said Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist for Bloomberg Econ.

    “They need to see clear and convincing evidence that inflation is coming down,” she added. By the time that happens, “we will be in a recession.”

    Which means that in the next few weeks, Powell will transform from every Democrat’s best friend (for launching of that socialist wet dream, MMT or the Magic Money Tree), to their most loathed enemy – after all, someone else has to be responsible for the catastrophic governance under Democratic leadership.

    It’s already starting: while Senate Baking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown, an Ohio Democrat, defended Powell during an interview on Bloomberg Television Thursday, some other prominent Democrats on the committee, which oversees the central bank, voted against Powell’s second term, including Warren and Robert Menendez of New Jersey.

    “It is important for the Fed not to overreach and trigger a recession unnecessarily, as part of its effort to bring inflation down,” said Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the No. 5-ranked House Democratic leader. “Inflation is a global problem, and is actually not as bad in America as it is in almost every other developed economy in the world,” he told Bloomberg.

    Meanwhile, even as most Republicans still mostly blame Biden for stoking inflation by going too big with pandemic aid last year, some are also taking aim at the Fed and are vexed by its lack of transparency. North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis discussed the committee’s frustration last month, pointing out that both sides of the aisle have struggled to get information out of the Fed. His colleague Patrick Toomey, a Pennsylvania Republican, is preparing legislation aimed at making the Fed’s 12 regional branches more accountable.

    Powell has worked hard to restore relations with Congress after the rocky tenures of former Chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen. He also launched his own effort at community outreach called “Fed Listens.” There have been three sessions this year.

    But none of this will assuage lawmakers if unemployment goes up because – as Bloomberg correctly writes – in Washington “somebody needs to bear the cost of policy failure.”

    “Lawmakers — especially Democrats — are more prone to threaten the Fed with legislation as unemployment rises,” said Sarah Binder, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “Both rising inflation and unemployment drive down public approval of the Fed, but job losses have a larger effect.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 20:00

  • Johnstone: Our Entire Civilization Is Structured Around Keeping Us From Realizing We Can Do This
    Johnstone: Our Entire Civilization Is Structured Around Keeping Us From Realizing We Can Do This

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    Rise, like lions after slumber
    In unvanquishable number!
    Shake your chains to earth like dew
    Which in sleep had fallen on you:
    Ye are many — they are few!

    ~ Percy Bysshe Shelley

    The video footage that came out of Sri Lanka earlier this month has been the recurring nightmare of every ruler throughout history.

    Thousands of protesters outraged by the deteriorating material conditions of the nation’s economic meltdown have stormed the presidential palace of Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and I guarantee you the aerial footage as they poured into the building en masse has made every government leader and plutocrat a little uncomfortable today.

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    Just look at that. Look at all those people flooding in there. That is some truly awe-inspiring power. Imagine how terrifying it would be to find yourself on the receiving end of it.

    I don’t know enough about what’s going on in Sri Lanka yet to comment with any authority on what powers might be at play in this uprising, but I do know that every ruler throughout history has spent time envisioning what would happen if a crowd that size decided to storm their base of operation. If their numbers became too great to suppress, or if your forces who would be doing the suppressing joined the ranks of the people instead, the best-case scenario for you is that you’d have already fled the building by that point, as Rajapaksa had the good sense to do shortly before the building was stormed. If enough angry people get their hands on you, it won’t matter if they’re armed with rockets or pistols or their own bare hands; you are in for a violent end.

    If you’ve ever wondered why so much energy goes into keeping everyone propagandized in our society, this is why. If you’ve ever wondered why our rulers work so hard to keep us divided against each other, this is why. If you’ve ever wondered why we’re always being instructed to take our grievances to the voting booth even though we learn in election after election that it never changes the things that most desperately need to change, this is why.

    Our entire civilization is structured around preventing scenes like the one we’re seeing in Sri Lanka today. Our education systems, our political systems, our media, our online information. Religions that have been around for thousands of years because the powerful endorsed and promulgated them are full of passages extolling the virtues of obedience, poverty, meekness, and rendering unto Caesar what is Caesar’s. From the moment we are born our heads are filled with stories about why it’s good and right to consent to the status quo and why it would be wrong to take back what has been stolen from us by a predatory ruling class.

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    This is why we’re always inundated with messaging about the importance of civility and politeness any time people realize that they can simply confront corrupt officials in restaurants or at their homes to push for what they want. The managers of the oligarchic empire which rules over us are terrified that we will one day notice that there are a whole lot more of us than there are of them, and that there’s really nothing they could do to stop us if we decided to replace them with a system which benefits ordinary people instead of an elite few.

    Things are getting worse and worse because the systems that are in place are designed to exploit and oppress rather than to uplift and help thrive. Those systems will protect their own ability to continue to exploit and oppress until the people use their numbers to replace them with something healthy. The people will never use their numbers to replace abusive systems with something healthy as long as they are successfully propagandized away from doing so.

    This is why our political and media institutions act the way they act and why our systems are set up in the way that they are: to keep us from realizing how easy it would be to shrug off the old mechanisms of oppression like a heavy coat on a warm day and build something new that works for all of us.

    Things will keep getting worse until we find a way to cut through the propaganda brain fog and rise like lions.

    * * *

    My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, following me on FacebookTwitterSoundcloud or YouTube, or throwing some money into my tip jar on Ko-fiPatreon or Paypal. If you want to read more you can buy my books. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. All works co-authored with my American husband Tim Foley.

    Bitcoin donations:1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 19:30

  • AOC And Ilhan Omar's 'Fake Handcuffs' Stunt Was Coordinated With Soros-Funded Dark Money Group
    AOC And Ilhan Omar’s ‘Fake Handcuffs’ Stunt Was Coordinated With Soros-Funded Dark Money Group

    Last week’s arrest of 17 members of Congress during an abortion rights demonstration outside the Supreme Court – which notably included Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Ilhan Omar (D-MN) pretending they were in handcuffs – was coordinated with a progressive dark-money group funded by billionaire George Soros.

    As the Washington Examiner‘s Andrew Kerr reports, “Getting arrested was the whole point of the stunt, Ocasio-Cortez said in an Instagram post on Tuesday. She said organizers of the Center for Popular Democracy (CPD) Action Fund asked her and her colleagues to “submit themselves for arrest in front of the Supreme Court.””

    According to AOC, what they did was “very different than a ‘publicity stunt'” without elaborating.

    Approximately 30 minutes before lawmakers arrived at the USSC, Omar spokesman Jeremy Slevin said the quiet part out loud – tweeting “Members of Congress, including [Omar] will be participating in a civil disobedience at the Supreme Court, potentially including arrests, shortly.”

    Meanwhile, CPD Action co-executive director, Andrew Friedman, told the Washington Post in 2018 that they, and their sister organization, Center for Popular Democracy – which coordinated with the lawmakers, had received over $1 million per year from Soros Open Society Foundations.

    CPD Action posted on Facebook Tuesday, saying that its leaders were among the 18 non-lawmakers who were arrested.

    “Moments ago, leaders from CPD Action network organizations, members of Congress & more participated in a powerful civil disobedience demonstration & got arrested to protect our RIGHT to SAFE & LEGAL abortions,” reads the post. “This is a clear message to SCOTUS and lawmakers that #WeWontBackDown until ALL pregnancy-abled people are treated as full human beings with the autonomy to make decisions about OUR OWN bodies.”

    More via The Examiner:

    CPD Action linked to a fundraising page in its Facebook post that urged activists to “continue acts of civil disobedience,” such as the one it coordinated with the 17 arrested members of Congress on Tuesday, to secure access to abortion across the country.

    Ocasio-Cortez was widely mocked by conservative commentators for creating the impression that she was handcuffed by police during her arrest. The New York lawmaker was filmed crossing her hands behind her back while she was being escorted off the scene by police. She then pumped her fist toward a crowd of supporters while still detained by police.

    Ocasio-Cortez insisted she wasn’t pretending to be in handcuffs during her arrest.

    “No faking here,” Ocasio-Cortez said in a tweet on Wednesday. “Putting your hands behind your back is a best practice while detained, handcuffed or not, to avoid escalating charges like resisting arrest. But given how you lied about a fellow rape survivor for ‘points,’ as you put it to me, I don’t expect much else from you.”

    A Capitol Police spokesperson told the Washington Examiner that nobody arrested outside the Supreme Court on Tuesday was handcuffed.

    How exactly was this not a ‘publicity stunt’?

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 19:00

  • Race Towards Net Zero Will Break Energy Market, Drive Up Energy Price: Analyst
    Race Towards Net Zero Will Break Energy Market, Drive Up Energy Price: Analyst

    Authored by Nina Nguyen via The Epoch Times,

    An analyst has warned that the push for net zero with existing renewables technologies by 2050 will break the energy market and lead to a stark increase in Australia’s energy price within a decade.

    It comes as Australia, and the world, continues to struggle with an energy crisis amid supply issues plaguing much of the country’s east coast in June, causing the national operator to suspend the electricity market for more than a week.

    Institute of Public Affairs research fellow Kevin You on July 17 said the recent incidents of market failures “are not accidents” but are “all designed features of net zero by 2050,” which he said is “casting a dark cloud” over the fossil fuel industry.

    He noted that investors are “intimidated” by “the iron fist of the government,” which is likely to place regulatory burdens on coal fired power generators, gas, and oil projects, and on downstream electricity businesses that deal with traditional energy generators.

    “You know what happens when the government sticks its nose where it doesn’t belong—whether it be in the transport industry, the aviation industry, in energy generation, in energy distribution—it breaks the market,” he told the audience at Australia’s largest annual liberty conference, the Friedman conference.

    “Investors have been scared witless by the spectre of net zero hanging over the energy market, the same way the spectre of communism hung over Europe in 1848.”

    You described the net zero target as an attempt by “big government, controlled by an elite circle of faceless men, the renewables lobby, and rent seekers” to “take over and take down the energy market.”

    Billions in Subsidies

    In the pursuit of net zero, the government is directing investment into so-called renewables, offering the sector annual subsidies of up to $8 billion (US$5.5 billion) a year until 2030.

    Meanwhile, the Labor government, elected in May, has committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030, and investing in renewables while promising “cheaper electricity prices for homes and businesses.”

    “There is a race for renewable energy jobs and investment around the world, and Australia should be leading that race,” Energy Minister Chris Bowen said.

    However, a similar pledge was made in the 2007 election, when the then-Rudd government promised that renewables would generate at least 20 percent of Australia’s electricity supply by 2020.

    The promise remained unfulfilled, with renewables making up 7 percent of Australian energy consumption in 2019-20, according to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

    Cost of ‘Unreliable’ Renewables

    But despite its popular appeal, renewable energy is “unreliable,” You said, arguing that “if it can sustain itself in the free market, then it wouldn’t need taxpayer money to line up the pockets of big renewable industries.”

    “If renewables can compete in the energy market, then let them compete in a free and fair market against called against gas against nuclear power.”

    The analyst, whose research focuses on the political economy and industrial relations, predicted that for every gigawatt removed from the grid, wholesale energy prices will jump by $22 (US$15.25) per megawatt hour. This means that the average quarterly market price per megawatt hour will jump from A$89 to A$111.

    You also estimated that in the next eight years, 11 gigawatts of capacity offered by coal fired power generators will be taken offline. This, he said, will translate to a quadrupling in wholesale electricity prices, with the flow on effect being a doubling in retail electricity prices.

    “So far, the literal doubling of electricity prices is only felt by several thousand households who are customers of small electricity retailers.

    “But it will only get worse from here,” You warned.

    Frank Calabria, managing director of Origin Energy, which operates Australia’s largest coal-fired power station, estimated that reaching net zero by 2050 would require $120 trillion (US$86.25 trillion) to be invested in the energy sector between now and 2050.

    If this cost is split among the population of the developed world (1.3 billion people), the cost would be equivalent to A$369,000 for a household of four—that’s an annual cost of $13,200 per household for the next 28 years.

    “Balancing tighter supply and demand in the market is an increasingly complex challenge, with the back-up, or firming, of variable renewable supply met by a combination of technology,” he told the Australian Energy conference on June 7.

    IPA research fellow You also noted that Australia’s emissions are nowhere near that of China.

    “Australia emits just over 1 percent of the world’s greenhouse gases,” he said.

    China emits more carbon in 16 days than Australia does in a year. That’s two weeks of emissions from China amounts to as much as a year’s worth of emissions from Australia. Right now, China’s got 57 coal fired power stations for every single one in Australia.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 18:30

  • Hedge Fund CIO: The World Is Racing To A New Monetary Regime With An Unknown Finish Line
    Hedge Fund CIO: The World Is Racing To A New Monetary Regime With An Unknown Finish Line

    Excepted from the latest weekend note by Marcel Kasumovich, Head or Research at One River Asset Management. Full note available to pro subscribers.

    There is no ex-ante limit to that Transmission Protection Instrument programme,” said ECB President Lagarde, following her predecessor’s playbook, “[the] ECB determines in its own discretion not being hostage to anyone.”  The market disagreed, widening peripheral spreads.

    The tools that came from “whatever it takes” have been made redundant by politics.  Markets are skeptical version-two can be effective. “There’s ample room to hike in 0.25 and 0.50 [percentage point] levels to whatever rate we think, we consider reasonable,” Austria’s central bank Governor Holzmann emphasized in speaking of future meetings, a reminder of the ECBs North-South balancing act. “We do have the risk of a slowdown in the economy,” said the ECB Chief economist ahead of the July rate hike.

    Political tools are needed to resolve the energy crisis. Nord Stream announced the company was “in process of resuming gas transportation” last week, though at 40% capacity. “The response cannot rely on imposing unfair sacrifices without properly identifying the most effective and solidary contributions each member state can deliver,” the Spanish government wrote in rebuke to an across-the-board cut to gas demand. “It is not efficient, fair, or equitable,” the government continued, another North-South tension.

    The IMF predicted Russian action to stop supplying Europe would trigger economic contractions of more than 5% over the next year in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, and Italy. Liz Truss, vying for Conservative leadership, shed her 2016 Remain campaign to end every EU-derived regulation: “European Union rules hinder British businesses.”

    Daylight in Brussels is shortening by 2 minutes and 38 seconds July 24, a slow reminder that winter is coming. Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action has been on alert level for gas since June 22, providing daily updates. “If Russian gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline persist at this low level, it will hardly be possible to achieve a storage level of 90% by November without additional measures.” It is a daily reminder of what is to come. “Companies and private consumers must expect a considerable increase in gas prices.”

    * * *

    Privilege to Curse: “I have directed Secretary Connally to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the American dollar [to gold]. …what does it mean for you? Let me lay to rest the bugaboo of what is called devaluation. The effect of this action, in other words, will be to stabilize the dollar. But our primary concern is with the American workers.” August 15, 1971, President Nixon ended the gold standard that defined world monetary order since the end of WWII. Gold reserves had plunged and the budget austerity for its survival was untenable.

    Privilege to Curse II: US surpluses was the challenge at the start of the new global monetary regime after WWII. The world needed dollars and the US needed to run deficits to supply them. US policy recycled dollars through aid to support Germany and Japan. US deficits is what ended the monetary regime, with rapidly draining US gold reserves. Floating exchanges rates were formalized in 1973. International balance sheets were no longer anchored. A new era with long memories evidenced in US Treasury holdings of gold set to the 1973 price of $42.2222.

    Privilege to Curse III: Balance sheets have long memories. Mistakes accumulate, waiting to be reconciled. International balance sheets are too often overlooked in that context. The post-war Bretton Woods era did its job – it imposed austerity. International balance sheets ended that era clean. Unhinging to gold opened the door for more participants with emerging countries eager to accelerate growth through debt financing. Pegging to the USD was a way of importing US policy credibility – virtuous cycles of lower capital costs, foreign inflows, and strong growth followed.

    Privilege to Curse IV: Until it stopped. Latin America suffered from rapid Fed tightening and dollar appreciation in the 1980s. Asian economies were similarly destabilized in the 1990s. A new monetary era emerged. EM countries built unprecedented US dollar reserves to ward-off boom-bust cycles. Undervalued currencies. Large external surplus. Delayed gratification in the interest of shorter-term stability and long-term growth. EM foreign exchange reserves rose to $8trln in 2014 from $617bln in 1998. Financiers rejoiced. Industrialists moved to China.

    Privilege to Curse V: “A particularly interesting aspect of the global saving glut has been a remarkable reversal in the flows of credit to developing and emerging-market economies.” Bernanke’s 2005 address on the issue coined the term “saving glut.” US policy appreciated the challenge. But times were good. “I see no reason why the whole process should not proceed smoothly.” It was the height of privilege. The US economy shifted toward consumption, away from production. Foreign savings fueled the luxury – US external borrowing rose to 7% of GDP.

    Privilege to Curse VI: It was an implicit monetary accord, not formalized. Domestic production was hollowed in the name of globalization and principles of the Washington Consensus – dutifully ignored by EM countries. Under the constraints of a hard-money system, deficits needed to either be financed or creditors would take back their gold. Net international liabilities never had a chance to build. Today, they haven’t had a chance to correct. The US international liability of $17.75trln is the cumulation of the past, like looking back at stars in a telescope.

    Privilege to Curse VII: The privilege of cheap financing is now a curse – and it’s global. The world is racing to a new monetary regime with an unknown finish line. Inflation was the starting gun. Monetary regimes change under stress. Countries cooperate when they all have a lot to lose. The virtuous cycle of globalization is now working in reverse with a focus on security – in food, energy, and technology. Foreign exchange is the asset class that drives the transition to new monetary regimes, during macro quantum change. “It’s our currency, but it’s your problem,” a legendary declaration from Secretary Connally in 1971 that is truer today. We’re all FX traders now.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 17:30

  • Al Gore Compares Climate Skeptics To Uvalde Cops Who 'Stood By While Children Were Being Massacred'
    Al Gore Compares Climate Skeptics To Uvalde Cops Who ‘Stood By While Children Were Being Massacred’

    Former Vice President Al Gore (D), who wrongly predicted the Arctic would be ice-free by 2013 because of man-made global warming, and has pushed mass surveillance as a solution to curb carbon emissions, has compared ‘climate deniers’ to Uvalde police officers who waited over an hour to stop a mass shooting which left 19 children and 2 adults dead in late May.

    “You know, the climate deniers are really in some ways similar to all of those almost 400 law enforcement officers in Uvalde, Texas, who were waiting outside an unlocked door while the children were being massacred,” Gore told “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd.

    “They heard the screams, they heard the gunshots, and nobody stepped forward,” said Gore.

    Of course, as Outkick‘s Ian Miller notes, “Gore’s obsessive focus on the U.S. as the main culprit [of man-made climate change] is wildly inaccurate when China far exceeds US emissions:”

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    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 17:00

  • The Day Fauci Reversed Course: February 27, 2020
    The Day Fauci Reversed Course: February 27, 2020

    Via The Brownstone Institute, originally authored by Will Jones at DailySceptic.org,

    I’ve been looking again at Covid’s origins and the start of the pandemic. Last time I wrote on it I argued that Italy brought in China-style lockdowns on March 8th and 10th 2020 mainly as a result of panic owing to the leap in the death rate, with it being clear from the hospital situation there were many more deaths to come. I still believe that that was the immediate trigger for imposing lockdowns at the time. However, I now recognise that that is far from the full story. What it leaves out is the backdrop of who was pushing for lockdowns throughout the preceding two months, and why.

    Two key pieces of data have emerged in the last few months that help to bring the picture into clearer focus.

    The first is that with the arrival of Omicron the Chinese have continued fanatically to pursue lockdowns, crippling their economy as they do it. To my mind, this is convincing evidence that the Chinese are sincere about their belief in the radical new disease management strategy they inaugurated on January 23rd 2020 in Wuhan. I initially (in 2020) thought it may be an elaborate ruse to convince the world to do something monumentally and pointlessly self-destructive. But it appears they really do think lockdowns are highly effective and the right way to fight a disease like COVID-19. I’m aware some suggest it could just be a cunning strategy to strengthen the grip of the ruling party on the population, but all the evidence indicates to me that they actually are trying to fight the disease in this way.

    If this is accepted then one of the key pieces of the puzzle snaps into place: the global Covid narrative has, both behind closed doors and in front of them, been driven in part by the Chinese Government’s commitment to its extreme suppression strategy and its desire for other countries to adopt it as well. It’s been suggested this derives from a sense of national pride and seeking vindication of their efforts and ideas, and is part of a wider aim of achieving global Chinese cultural supremacy, which sounds plausible to me.

    The second key piece of data are emails sent by White House Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, which reveal that behind closed doors as late as February 26th 2020, Dr. Fauci was still, as he had been consistently up to that point, advising people not to panic. But as of February 27th his approach suddenly changed and, from that moment on, he began consistently pushing restrictions.

    On February 26th he wrote to CBS News that Americans should not yield to fear:

    You cannot avoid having infections since you cannot shut off the country from the rest of the world… Do not let the fear of the unknown… distort your evaluation of the risk of the pandemic to you relative to the risks that you face every day… do not yield to unreasonable fear.

    But by the next day he was writing to actress Morgan Fairchild that the American public should prepare for pandemic restrictions:

    It would be great if you could tweet to your many Twitter followers that although the current risk of coronavirus to the American public is low, the fact that there is community spread of virus in a number of countries besides China… poses a risk that we may progress to a global pandemic of COVID-19… And so for that reason, the American public should not be frightened, but should be prepared to mitigate an outbreak in this country by measures that include social distancing, teleworking, temporary closure of schools, etc. There is nothing to be done right now since there are so few cases in this country and these cases are being properly isolated, and so go about your daily business. However, be aware that behavioural adjustments may need to be made if a pandemic occurs.

    Interestingly, February 27th was also the day the media narrative in the U.S. shifted, with the New York Times leading the way with its first alarmist piece, by Peter Daszak of the EcoHealth Alliance, and also an alarmist podcast with science and health reporter Donald G. McNeil Jr., which quoted directly from China a 2% mortality rate for the virus.

    The context for this shift was a WHO press briefing on February 24th by Bruce Aylward, who had just concluded a WHO-China Joint Mission on COVID-19 and told the world that lockdown worked and “you have to do this. If you do it, you can save lives and prevent thousands of cases of what is a very difficult disease.”

    The timing obviously suggests the events are connected, but crucially it also implies that Fauci and those around him were not part of the behind-the-scenes decision of Aylward to throw the WHO’s weight behind the Chinese approach. This leaves, then, the question of why Fauci & Co flipped from their previous position of playing down the threat from the virus and not supporting extreme Chinese-style interventions to going all in with the panic.

    The picture being painted here is of at least two ‘conspiracies’ going on – the Chinese one, seeking to push lockdowns as part of Chinese vindication and cultural supremacy, and the Fauci & Co one, the potential motives for which are discussed below. I am pretty confident these are not the same ‘conspiracy’, as I assume that Fauci & Co are not motivated by vindicating China and advancing its cultural supremacy (I’ve seen no evidence this should be the case).

    A further element to throw into the mix is that the first Western lockdown occurred three days before the Aylward WHO briefing, on February 21st 2020, in a region of 50,000 people in Lombardy. Oddly, it seems to have been an isolated local initiative in response to the first identified ‘cases’ led by the regional health chief Giulio Gallera, with no clear links to the WHO or any other known lockdown protagonists. It would be interesting to ask Mr. Gallera why he decided to follow such a radical course of action that day.

    Italy locked down on March 8th and 10th, a response it seems to the climbing death rate, and most of the rest of the world followed in the ensuing two weeks. The U.S. Government was persuaded by Deborah Birx and others to back lockdowns on March 16th. On March 12th-14th, U.K. Government ministers and officials did a media round promoting the idea of aiming for herd immunity and keeping calm and carrying on. However, that strategy soon collapsed in the face of shifting public opinion and alarmist models from scientists like Imperial’s Neil Ferguson. After March 23rd, Sweden was the only holdout among Western Governments.

    Such a mess of uncoordinated action confirms to my mind a picture of different groups driven by different motives and agendas which sometimes overlap, catalysed by groupthink and hysteria, rather than any grand behind-the-scenes conspiracy involving all in a coordinated fashion.

    The Chinese Communist Party is a crucial actor, of course. It invented lockdowns and since then has persistently pushed them to the rest of the world, including through an all too willing WHO. However, that doesn’t mean that all who promote panic and lockdowns do so because they are in thrall to China or doing its bidding.

    So what was the deal with Fauci & Co – why did they oppose panic and lockdowns until February 27th, then flip to become among their most eager and high-powered proponents?

    Fauci’s emails show that, starting at the end of January and into February 2020, he organised a series of secretive video conferences and phone calls because he and his associates suspected the virus may have been genetically modified and leaked from a lab. Yet despite these suspicions, on February 19th the group wrote a letter to the Lancet denouncing the lab leak as a “conspiracy theory”. The organiser of the letter was Peter Daszak of the EcoHealth Alliance, one of Fauci’s associates who it later turned out had been funding gain of function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology of exactly the kind that was suspected as being responsible for creating COVID-19. Biologist Nick Patterson notes a grant application from EcoHealth Alliance to DARPA (the research agency of the U.S. Department of Defence), of which he says, “as far as I can make out, the plan here was for WIV to collect live virus, ship it to the USA, have U.S. scientists genetically modify the virus, and then ship modified virus… back to China”.

    In light of information like this and Fauci & Co’s preoccupation during February 2020 with the origin of the virus, culminating in their cynical effort to suppress the claims of lab leak and genetic modification, I surmise that their major motivation was to cover themselves for the possibility that they and their research fields would be held responsible for the virus. Initially this took the form of suppressing the lab leak theory while also playing down the threat from the virus, which they would have been keen to be as uneventful as possible. But why then the flip to panic mode after February 27th? Did the WHO backing lockdowns on February 24th change the equation, so it was no longer deemed viable or good cover to oppose the new approach? The path of least resistance in other words. A related question is whether they were genuinely persuaded that the measures would be effective or if they retained an unspoken scepticism. If they did retain any scepticism there’s been precious little sign of it since March 2020.

    Overall, I see no indication of a grand plan from the earliest days in which all are working from a common script to a common goal. Instead, I see various groups with their own agendas, interests and fears. It’s clear that, following Aylward’s team’s visit, China managed to capture the WHO and bring it on board with championing lockdowns. However, the motives of everyone besides China are largely opaque. Why did Aylward become China’s biggest fan – was he threatened or bribed or just duped and naïve? Why exactly did Lombardy regional health chief Giulio Gallera respond to the first cases in his region by imposing a Chinese-style lockdown even before the WHO had backed them? Why did Fauci flip on February 27th? What about curious figures like Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger, highlighted by Michael Senger, who despite being a known China critic, was a major alarmist influence within the White House from the get-go, drawing on mysterious ‘contacts in China’ to call for panic and restrictions as early as January?

    What drove each of these people to get behind the closing down of society as the ‘solution’ to a respiratory virus? We can largely see now who did what and when. What’s mainly missing is the why.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 16:30

  • House Intel Committee Member Warns DNA Testing Kits Could Lead To Targeted Bioweapons
    House Intel Committee Member Warns DNA Testing Kits Could Lead To Targeted Bioweapons

    Two members of Congressional intelligence committees have warned Americans that information gathered from DNA testing kits such as 23andMe, as well as those used in agriculture, could be used to develop bioweapons targeting specific groups of Americans or even individuals.

    Speaking on Friday at the Aspen Security Forum, Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO), who sits on the House Intelligence Committee, warned that Americans are too trusting with their DNA in the hands of private companies.

    “There are now weapons under development, and developed, that are designed to target specific people,” said Crow, a former Army Ranger.

    “You can’t have a discussion about this without talking about privacy and the protection of commercial data because expectations of privacy have degraded over the last 20 years,” he added. “Young folks actually have very little expectation of privacy, that’s what the polling and the data show.”

    “That’s what this is, where you can actually take someone’s DNA, you know, their medical profile, and you can target a biological weapon that will kill that person or take them off the battlefield or make them inoperable.”

    People will very rapidly spit into a cup and send it to 23andMe and get really interesting data about their background,” he continued, Fox News reports.

    Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, expanded on that, adding that US adversaries could use the same technology to attack US food security – targeting livestock and crops to induce famine.

    “If we look at food security and what can our adversaries do with biological weapons that are directed at our animal agriculture, at our agricultural sector … highly pathogenic avian influenza, African swine fever,” she said, adding: “All of these things have circulated around the globe, but if targeted by an adversary, we know that it brings about food insecurity. Food insecurity drives a lot of other insecurities around the globe.”

    “What can our adversaries do with biological weapons that are directed at our agricultural sector?” she asked.

    In November, the LA County Sheriff’s department notified the LA County Board of Supervisors that LASD will not work with a China-linked genetics firm hired by the county to conduct Covid-19 testing and registration, after the FBI shared “very concerning information” about Fulgent Genetics Corporation – which was awarded a no-bid contract for the work.

    “This letter is to inform you the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department (Department) will not participate in COVID-19 registering or testing with Fulgent Genetics Corporation (Fulgent), due to the fact the DNA data obtained is not guaranteed to be safe and secure from foreign governments and “will likely be shared with the Republic of China,“” wrote Sheriff Alex Villanueva in a Monday letter. 

    Of note, China’s ambitions to build the world’s largest DNA database are no secret to anyone listening to Kyle Bass or the Wall Street Journal.

    One month later, the Biden administration blacklisted 12 Chinese biotech institutions involved in mass DNA collection technology and surveiolance.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 16:00

  • Over 25% Of Home-Sellers Dropped Their Price In June In Most Metro Areas
    Over 25% Of Home-Sellers Dropped Their Price In June In Most Metro Areas

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

    Redfin reports price reductions by at least 25 percent of sellers in three-fourths of the metro areas it tracks.

    Redfin reports More than 60% of Boise Home Sellers Dropped Their Asking Price in June Amid Cooling Market

    Price Drops by City 

    • Boise, ID (61.5%)

    • Denver, CO (55.1%)

    • Salt Lake City, UT (51.6%)

    • Tacoma, WA (49.5%)

    • Grand Rapids, MI (49.3%)

    • Sacramento, CA(48.7%)

    • Seattle, WA (46.3%)

    • Portland, OR (45.7%)

    • Tampa, FL (44.5%)

    • Indianapolis, IN (44.1%)

    • Phoenix, AZ (43.6%)

    • San Diego, CA (43.3%)

    • Stockton, CA (42.9%)

    • Austin, TX (41.6%)

    “Home sellers are contending with a rapidly changing market, especially in places where they’re used to their neighbor’s homes getting multiple offers and selling for more than asking price,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. 

    In 18 metro areas, over 40 percent of sellers reduced prices.  In 73 metro areas, at least 30% of sellers reduced their asking price.

    Redfin tracks 97 metro areas.

    Just a Start 

    Home prices have gotten so insane, this is barely a start to what’s coming.

    Housing and Commercial Real Estate Both Weakening

    Both residential and office space are under severe pressure.

     

    *  *  *

    Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 15:30

  • How Mattis Betrayed His Fellow Marines At The Behest Of The Deep State
    How Mattis Betrayed His Fellow Marines At The Behest Of The Deep State

    Authored by Major Fred Galvin (USMC-Ret) via The Publius National Post,

    How the Pentagon’s top-brass generals burned the careers of subordinates but then pivoted to lucrative careers all while losing the wars they were supposed to be winning

    My new book, A Few Bad Men, details the mendacity and mad dishonesty of retired Marine General James “Mad Dog” Mattis. The fact that it was written by a Marine once under his command, whom he betrayed for the sake of politics and getting to slap on another star, says volumes about this once-lionized figure.

    It all goes back to an incident in Afghanistan in 2007, and the Court of Inquiry trial of innocent Marines that followed, which Mattis himself instigated.

    Lt. Colonel Steve Morgan, USMC (retired) and jury member of the 2008 Marine Special Operations Command’s Court of Inquiry says in the foreword to A Few Bad Men, “This is a case of a perfect storm of toxic leadership.” 

    The most legendary Marine of all time, Lieutenant General John A. Lejeune, the 13th commandant of the Marine Corps, laid out clearly how to effectively nurture and lead Marines:

    “Make every effort by means of historical, educational, and patriotic addresses to cultivate in their hearts a deep abiding love of the Corps and Country” and “the key to combat effectiveness is unity and esprit that characterizes itself in complete irrevocable mutual trust.” 

    If only General Mattis had taken this to heart.

    On February 3, 2005, when Lieutenant General Mattis was attending the Armed Forces Communications and Electronic Associations forum in San Diego, he said: “You go into Afghanistan, you got guys who slap women around for five years because they didn’t wear a veil. You know, guys like that ain’t got no manhood left anyway. So it’s a hell of a lot of fun to shoot them. It’s fun to shoot some people. I’ll be right up there with you. I like brawling.” 

    He also likes hearing the sound of his own voice.

    During this same time, Mattis partnered with General David Petraeus to develop the joint counterinsurgency doctrine of winning hearts and minds. Mattis hijacked the phrase from the Hippocratic oath for his Marines to follow, “First do no harm.” This sounded good to the media and politicians in Washington, but Marines are not physicians and Afghanistan was no sterile operating room. It was a hellscape in which Marines constantly faced threats and the possibility of betrayal from 360 degrees. Mattis’ Marine Hippocratic oath sent mixed signals for his Marines, who had it on his good authority that “It’s a hell of a lot of fun to shoot . . . some people.”  

    Just over two years later, I led the First Marine Special Operations Task Force. We landed in Afghanistan on February 12, 2007. Before long the First was involved in a complex ambush near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, on March 4, 2007. We were attacked by a suicide car-bomb, waves of Taliban fighters on both sides of the road, a sniper, and a mob that placed an obstacle to trap us in an ambush kill box. We  successfully counterattacked, killed the Taliban terrorists, avoided civilian casualties, and returned to base within 20 minutes, where we learned of the Taliban’s swift information operations campaign that was already underway, accusing us of mass-murdering Afghan civilians. The Taliban’s version of events went out within 20 minutes through the BBC followed by countless others. Ultimately, the president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, condemned our actions and the Army generals kicked us out of Afghanistan within five days. Crushing the Taliban in battle morphed into a PR victory for the extremists in the media and a weakening of the allied forces in country. Due process went right out the window.

    Ironically, Mattis was assigned as the convening authority by the commandant of the Marine Corps in August 2007, to be responsible for the investigation and a Court of Inquiry into our March 4 battle. Mattis received the results of my polygraph test and the sworn testimony of all the Marines involved in the firefight, confirming that on that morning no Marines said they killed any civilians or saw any civilians killed. 

    Unlike Lejeune’s comments of “cultivating a deep abiding love of Country and Corps in the hearts of your Marines and that the key to combat effectiveness is unity and esprit that characterizes itself in complete irrevocable mutual trust,” Mattis unleashed an unprecedented 45 criminal investigators and four prosecuting attorneys against the seven Marines falsely accused by the Taliban of mass murder. It would become the longest war crimes trial in Marine Corps history. 

    Mattis placed a “protective order” (a.k.a. gag order) prohibiting the two Marine officers who he named as codefendants from making any statements to the press or face punishment. Our attorneys would face disbarment. The already unlevel playing field was tilted hard against the Marines who had won a battlefield victory under fire.

    Additionally, Mattis’ prosecution team found perceived vulnerabilities in the Marine commandos and commenced “ethnic targeting” of two Hispanic Marines. Mad Dog’s prosecutors continuously interrogated one of them, and the government manufactured a statement from him that our fire was out of control during the March 4 ambush. 

    The prosecution then threatened to deport the Marine’s mother back to Mexico unless he signed the statement. That Marine testified he was coerced into signing the prosecution’s false statement. Another Hispanic Marine also testified he was repeatedly threatened by the prosecution to take a polygraph, which was not a legal order, but the prosecution ordered him to anyway. None of the other Marines were subjected to these strongarm Gestapo tactics.

    Mattis turned the prosecution over to his successor in the fall of 2007 as he received his promotion with a fourth star. The following year, the trial acquitted all of us. No thanks to Mad Dog Mattis. He got his star. A few bad prosecutors under his watch cost the Marines a few good men, and diminished America’s position in Afghanistan at a time when that war might still have been won.

    Mattis went on to serve as the commander of all U.S. Forces in the Middle East at U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Florida. As I detail in A Few Bad Men, there he came under the influence of Elizabeth Holmes, founder and CEO of Theranos. Holmes had a device she claimed could detect all kinds of disease in a few drops of blood. It would change the world, if it worked. Holmes contacted Mattis in August 2012 and wrote Pentagon officials requesting, “How do we overcome this new obstacle? I have tried to get this device tested in theater asap, legally and ethically. This appears to be relatively straight-forward yet we’re a year into this and not yet deployed.” 

    The main problem Mattis was willing to overlook was that the FDA had not approved Theranos’ blood testing technology to be used on our troops in Afghanistan, but Mattis was hoping he could push it through, right or wrong. 

    Mattis retired and went on to make a fortune serving on four corporate boards, including Theranos and military contractor General Dynamics. Theranos’ technology would not only be denied FDA approval, but it was proven to be a fraud. During the Elizabeth Holmes trial, Mattis, who had served as a Theranos board member for several years, testified that he was unaware of any of Theranos’ scandalous actions. This seems unlikely, given Mad Dog’s legendary tenacity, and the fact that he had a fiduciary duty to know what was going on.

    Holmes’ device never worked. She is now a convicted fraudster. Was Mattis her gullible mark or a greedy participant?

    Mattis’ disgraceful actions are laid bare in A Few Bad Men. He used his position as secretary of defense to bottle up the Freedom of Information Act requests to get our testimony in that March 4, 2007 ambush exposed. Our shocking testimonies have now been released and tell a terrible story of betrayal by a Marine against other Marines. They reveal why the Pentagon’s top-brass generals who burned the careers of subordinates but then pivoted to lucrative careers with every defense contracting company lost their forever war in Afghanistan, and really, haven’t won a war in decades.

    *  *  *

    Major Fred Galvin (USMC-Ret), author of A Few Bad Men: The True Story of U.S. Marines Ambushed in Afghanistan and Betrayed in America.

    Tyler Durden
    Sun, 07/24/2022 – 15:11

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Today’s News 24th July 2022

  • The Normalization Of The New Normal Reich
    The Normalization Of The New Normal Reich

    Authored by CJ Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

    I know, you’re probably sick and tired of hearing about the Rise of the New Normal Reich. You want it to be over. So do I. It isn’t over … not by a long shot. It might seem like it’s over where you are. I imagine it does if you live in Florida, or in Texas, or the UK, or Sweden, or Croatia, or in some other country or state in which the majority of the “Covid restrictions” have been lifted, or perhaps were never introduced in the first place. If that’s the case, I’m happy for you.

    I happen to live in New Normal Germany, the current tip of the New Normal spear, or one of the tips of one of its spears (or mRNA-laced hypodermic needles), the others being countries and states like Canada, China, Australia, New York, California, and assorted other hotbeds of New Normalism. If you live in one of these New Normal strongholds, as I do, you are acutely aware of how it is not over.

    Yes, the Covidian Cult is kaput. The spell has been broken. Only the most insanely fanatical New Normal cultists continue to walk around in public in their plague masks and homemade hazmat suits. But the New Normal Reich is not kaput. The New Normal Reich is being … well, normalized. The masses are being systematically conditioned to accept the biosecurity police state that the global-capitalist ruling classes have been implementing for the last three years. Despite the now irrefutable evidence that the “vaccines” do not prevent transmission of the virus, “the Unvaccinated” are still being segregated, banned from working, attending school, competing in major sporting events, and so on. People are still being forced to wear masks — the symbol of the New Normal Reich — on planes, trains, public transport, in doctors offices, hospitals, et cetera. Here, there, and everywhere, New Normal symbols and social rituals are being permanently integrated into everyday life.

    These symbols and rituals are more than just the window dressing of the New Normal Reich. They are how our new “reality” is being created and maintained. The masses are like actors being forced to emotionally invest in the “reality” of an absurdist stage play. The more they repeat the performance, the more convincing the fictional “reality” becomes, regardless of how patently absurd it is … and it is becoming more and more absurd.

    For example, at the airports in New Normal Canada, citizens attempting to enter their own country without the so-called “ArriveCAN” app on their smartphones to provide proof of their “vaccination status” (including octogenarians who do not own smartphones) are subjected to extended absurdist harassment by imbecilic New Normal clowns in red vests. Here in New Normal Germany, the government is preparing to force everyone to wear medical-looking masks in public every Autumn and Winter, not just on account of the “Apocalyptic Plague” but also on account of the normal Winter flu. The pretext doesn’t really matter anymore. The point is the display of ideological uniformity.

    Meanwhile, Germany’s Federal Ministry of Health was forced to publish a limited hangout regarding “vaccination” injuries and deaths. They did it classic Goebbelsian fashion.

    Apparently, they didn’t like the actual data on the number of serious adverse effects, so they decided to just lie about them on Twitter.

    (Serious adverse effects were reported in roughly 1 in 5,000 doses, not 1 in 5,000 “vaccinated” people. Approximately 184,000,000 doses have been administered to people in Germany and … well, you can do the math.) 

    Naturally, the Twitter Corporation has been slapping its fake “misleading” warning on retweets pointing out the Ministry of Health’s lie, because the truth is whatever the Corporatocracy says it is, and everything else is “disinformation.”

    If you think I’m being harsh or hyperbolic in characterizing the Ministry’s lie as a lie, keep in mind that the German Minister of Health, Karl Lauterbach, has been lying, repeatedly, to the German public for over two years now. Here he is lying about the “side-effects-free vaccines” in August 2021, right around the time he ordered the segregation of “the Unvaccinated” and fomented hatred of anyone who refused to conform to New Normal ideology …

    And now, tens of thousands of people in Germany — at minimum, as vaccine adverse-effects have always been significantly under-reported — have been seriously injured or … you know, killed, because Karl and his fascistic New Normal cronies lied to everyone, over and over, and the German media repeated those lies, and the New Normal masses repeated those lies, and the government and global corporations censored, deplatformed, and demonized those of us who challenged those lies as “far-right extremists,” “science deniers,” “anti-vaxxers,” and so on.

    And these are just a few recent examples. I don’t think I need to provide an exhaustive list. At this point, you are either well aware and capable of facing what’s happening, or you’re not, in which case you are telling yourself whatever you need to tell yourself in order to pretend that what is happening isn’t happening.

    If that is what you’re doing, I cannot help you. Nothing I write or say will get through to you. Facts will not make any difference to you. Government and health officials and media talking heads will lie to your face, over and over, and get caught lying, and you will go on adamantly repeating their lies, not because you do not understand that they are lies, but because you do not care that they are lies. You do not care that you are killing and injuring countless people with your officially-approved lies, with your cowardice, with your mindless obedience. Your goal is to remain within the bounds of “normality,” and not get called a lot of names and get ostracized from your social circle, and if a lot of people have to die and you have to abandon any semblance of integrity and intellectual honesty to achieve that, so be it.

    As for the rest of us, those who are aware of what’s happening and are doing our best to face what’s happening, even if we don’t understand what’s happening, or disagree about why it’s happening, I wish I had something clever to offer in terms of how to make it stop happening.

    I don’t, other than what I’ve been advocating, i.e., organized, non-violent civil disobedience, like what the Canadian truckers did in Ottawa, like what the Dutch farmers are doing in The Netherlands. Columns like this, social media memes, sporadic Sunday mass demonstrations, and individual acts of non-compliance are not going to stop the New Normal juggernaut. The normalization of the New Normal will continue, the pathologization of society will continue, the destabilization and restructuring of the global economy will continue, unless something truly historic happens and the workers of the world unite (or if the sovereign individuals of the world unite if “workers” sounds too Commie to you) and jam a monkey wrench into the New Normal machinery.

    The chances of that happening are slim. In my 60 years of corporeal existence, I have never experienced a time when people were this alienated, hopeless, and at each other’s throats. I can’t recall a time when people were this humorless, sanctimonious, and vicious … and I am talking about the people who could make a difference, not the order-following New Normal masses. If there was ever a time when the working classes needed to set aside their political differences and flex their collective muscles, this is it, but most of us are too busy pissing on each other to score cheap points on Twitter, or Gettr, or Telegram, or, you know, wherever.

    I’m sorry to end on such a pessimistic note … I’m recovering from the Apocalyptic Plague, so perhaps I’m just feeling overly gloomy.

    Probably everything will be just fine, and people will eventually come to their senses, and the global-capitalist ruling classes will cancel the whole New Normal thing, and no one needs to organize any kind of international non-violent civil-disobedience campaign, and, one day, we’ll wake up and check our phones and discover that there was no New Normal Reich, and that no one ever died because of a vaccine, and we will check our social credit status, and tell our smart-kitchens to start cooking our crickets, and pull up the War-of-the-Day on our ViewScreens so we can root for whoever we were told to root for … and everything will finally be “normal” again.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 23:30

  • Mapped: The Top US Exports & Imports By State
    Mapped: The Top US Exports & Imports By State

    The Top U.S. Exports by State

    The U.S. exported over $1.3 trillion in goods in 2020, the second-highest amount worldwide.

    While refined petroleum was the top export overall at $58.4 billion, Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld details below that aircraft exports were actually the highest across 14 states – more than any other form of export.

    This infographic from OnDeck shows America’s top exports by state, using January 2022 data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

    America’s Top Exports, by Category

    As shown below, Florida, Kansas, and numerous other states all have aircraft (and related parts) as their top export.

    Here is the top export category for each state, using 2020 figures.

    While the vast majority of the aerospace and defense industry consists of civil aerospace exports, America has also played a significant role in exports of military aircraft. Between 2000-2020, these were worth $99.6 billion, the highest in the world ahead of Russia’s $61.5 billion in military exports. This becomes less surprising when you consider that a new fighter jet can often come with a $100 million price tag.

    But there were many different, and more interesting, exports. South Dakota’s top export is none other than brewing dregs, which is the sediment found in brewing beer. The largest importers of these dregs are Mexico, Vietnam, and South Korea. Often, dregs are sold to farmers for use in animal feed.

    Meanwhile, the top export for Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Illinois is medicine, while North Carolina has vaccines and antibodies as a top export. In 2020, the U.S. exported over $46 billion in goods critical to combating COVID-19, the second-highest after China ($105 billion).

    As the largest exporter of oil in America, Texas produces over 5 million barrels of oil each day, or 1.7 billion annually. Mississippi’s top export was also petroleum, while light oil was the top export in Minnesota and North Dakota. Overall, oil makes up roughly 10% of U.S. exports annually.

    The Most Unique Exports, by State

    While oil, medicine, and aircraft are the usual suspects for America’s top exports, here are the most idiosyncratic exports for each state. These are defined as those which are exported by the smallest number of other states.

    Arkansas is the top exporter of rice in America, with the industry valued at $722 million. The rice industry in Arkansas began to grow substantially in the early 1900s, and expanded even more rapidly during World War I & II.

    New York, on the other hand, exports more sculptures than any other state thanks to being the epicenter of the art world. The U.S. exported over $12 billion in art and antiques in 2019.

    Lobster is the most unique export in Maine, known for its characteristically large claws. The north coast of Maine offers cool waters which lend themselves to more tender and sweeter lobster fare.

    Finally, Massachusetts exports quahog pearls, known for their uneven texture and mosaic pattern, found across Cape Cod.

    The Top U.S. Imports by State

    In 2021, the U.S. brought in approximately $2.83 trillion worth of goods from its various international trading partners.

    But as Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang asks (and answers below), what types of goods are most commonly imported throughout different parts of America? This graphic by OnDeck shows the top import in every U.S. state, using January 2022 data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

    The Most Popular Categories of U.S. Imports

    Petroleum is the most popular import in 12 states, making it the most common import across America. In 2021, about 72% of imported petroleum was crude oil, which was then domestically refined into products like gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel.

    A majority of that imported petroleum came from Canada, while roughly 11% was imported from OPEC countries, and 8% came from Russia. Of course, the latter figure will likely dip in 2022 because of the ban on Russian imports implemented by the Biden administration in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

    After petroleum, vehicles and medicine were tied for the second most-imported goods, with both categories being the most popular import in six states each.

    Somewhat related to medicine are nucleic acids, which were the top imports in Florida and Nebraska. Nucleic acids are natural polymers that are used in biological processes like protein synthesis or messenger RNA (mRNA) translation. It’s worth noting that several COVID-19 vaccines, including those produced by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, are mRNA vaccines.

    The Most Unique U.S. Imports

    In addition to outlining the most popular imports in each U.S. state, OnDeck highlights each state’s most unique import, visualized in the graphic below.

    OnDeck defines each state’s “most unique” import as the category of goods that was imported by the fewest other states.

    Salmon was Florida’s most unique import. This makes sense considering the Sunshine State is home to some of the country’s biggest seafood wholesalers, including North Star Seafood (owned by Sysco) and Tampa Bay Fisheries.

    Another example is Delaware’s high imports of pineapples, totaling around $60.2 million in pineapples per year. This time, the culprit is Dole plc (formerly the Dole Food Company), the largest producer of fruit and vegetables in the world. Until 2021, the company’s headquarters were based in Delaware, and it still receives pineapple imports to the Port of Wilmington in the state’s largest city.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 23:00

  • Birx Admits She Knew COVID-19 Vaccines Were Never "Going To Protect Against Infection"
    Birx Admits She Knew COVID-19 Vaccines Were Never “Going To Protect Against Infection”

    A year ago, President Biden told the world during a now infamous CNN townhall that “you’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations.”

    “This is a simple, basic proposition: If you’re vaccinated, you’re not going to be hospitalized, you’re not going to be in an ICU unit, and you’re not going to die,” Biden added

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    Did he knowingly lie to the American people?

    As The Epoch Times’ Zachary Stieber reports, one of the former U.S. officials who led the COVID-19 response during the Trump administration said July 22 that COVID-19 vaccines were not expected to protect against infection.

    I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection. And I think we overplayed the vaccines. And it made people then worry that it’s not going to protect against severe disease and hospitalization,” Birx, the White House COVID-19 response coordinator under former President Donald Trump, said during an appearance on Fox News.

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    The Moderna and Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines were granted emergency use authorization in late 2020 to prevent symptomatic COVID-19, and were promoted by many health officials, including Birx.

    “This is one of the most highly-effective vaccines we have in our infectious disease arsenal. And so that’s why I’m very enthusiastic about the vaccine,” Birx said on an ABC podcast at the time.

    She made no mention of concerns the vaccines might not protect against infection.

    Data shows the vaccines did prevent infection from early strains of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus, which causes COVID-19, but that the protection waned over time. The vaccines have proven increasingly unable to shield even shortly after administration, and provide little protection against the Omicron virus variant and its subvariants.

    The vaccines continue to protect against severe disease and hospitalization, Birx said on Friday.

    “But let’s be very clear—50 percent of the people who died from the Omicron surge were older, vaccinated,” she said.

    “So, that’s why I’m saying, even if you’re vaccinated and boosted if you’re unvaccinated, right now, the key is testing and Paxlovid,” she added.

    Paxlovid is a COVID-19 pill produced by Pfizer that has had uneven results in clinical trials and studies, but is recommended by U.S. health authorities for both unvaccinated and vaccinated COVID-19 patients to prevent progression to severe disease.

    President Joe Biden, who tested positive this week, was prescribed Paxlovid by his doctor.

    There are signs the protection from vaccines against severe illness is also dropping quickly as new strains emerge.

    That protection was just 51 percent against emergency department or urgent care visits, and dropped to just 12 percent after five months, according to a recent study. Against hospitalization, protection went from 57 percent to 24 percent. A booster increased protection but the shielding quickly dropped to substandard levels.

    Fauci

    Dr. Anthony Fauci also helped lead the U.S. pandemic response along with Birx and once said that vaccinated people would not get infected.

    “What was true two years ago, a year and a half ago, changes because the original ancestral strain did not at all have the transmission capability that we’re dealing with with the omicron sublineages, particularly BA. 5. So the vaccine does protect some people, not 95 percent, from getting infected, from getting symptoms, and getting severe disease. It does a much better job at protecting a high percentage of people from progressing from severe disease,” Fauci said on Fox.

    He said that vaccines with updated compilations, which are expected to debut in the fall, are necessary.

    We need vaccines that are better. That are better because of the breadth and the durability, because we know that immunity wanes over several months. And that’s the reason why we have boosters,” he said. “But also, we need vaccines that protect against infection.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 22:30

  • "Vouchers Are For Vultures": TX Lt Gov Hopeful Vilifies Parents Seeking School Choice
    “Vouchers Are For Vultures”: TX Lt Gov Hopeful Vilifies Parents Seeking School Choice

    If there was one lesson Democrats should have taken from being swept by the GOP in Virginia’s 2021 elections, it’s to be very careful what they say about parents, children and schools. After all, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe never recovered from declaring, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.”  

    Texas Democratic lieutenant governor candidate Mike Collier clearly didn’t get the message. Just 10 months after McAuliffe’s blunder, Collier has given incumbent Republican Dan Patrick a similar gift as he addressed the Texas Democratic convention.

    Lashing out at school voucher programs, which enable parents to use state education funds to attend private schools, Collier said: 

    “If Dan Patrick gets another term, he’s already told us he’s coming after your school and he’s coming after your teacher. He wants to privatize and profitize our public schools. As lieutenant governor, I will lead the legislature to amend our constitution to ban forever private school vouchers. You know why? Because vouchers are for vultures!

    If you need more proof that Collier’s campaign is utterly tone-deaf, note that we became aware of his gaffe because his campaign eagerly publicized it on Twitter: 

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    Collier may have intended to sling that insult at voucher-promoting politicians — and maybe at people engaged in the apparently evil practice of running private schools — but the universal nature of his declaration ended up vilifying the poor and middle class families who stand to gain the most from school choice programs. 

    Consider that just a quarter of Texas eighth-graders are proficient in reading, with the percentages dropping to just 11% for blacks and 19% for Latinos.  

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    Voucher proponents across the country have been energized by a recent major success in Arizona, where eligibility for the state’s Empowerment Scholarship Account program was extended to every kindergartener through twelfth-grader.

    Parents will be free to use about $7,000 a year for home schooling, private schools, online learning and tutoring instead of attending a public school. Alternatively, Arizona families can take their pick of public schools, subject only to available classroom space.

    Arizona’s school choice program is now the broadest one in the country, and it was achieved despite Republicans only holding single-vote majorities in both chambers. Arizona’s example is increasing pressure on politicians in other states — and especially red states like Texas — to follow Arizona’s lead. Many are racing to get out in front of the wave, including Texas Lieutenant Governor Patrick and Governor Greg Abbott.  

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    The wave is drawing pressure from parents who, prompted by school pandemic policy controversies, were driven to scrutinize their schools like never before. Meanwhile, remote teaching gave many parents a whole new window on day to day instruction. Many didn’t like what they saw.

    Between the devastating learning losses inflicted by Covid shutdowns and disturbing woke educational trends, families of various political persuasions are racing for the exits. According to a national survey reported in The New York Times, public schools have lost nearly 1.3 million students since the start of the pandemic

    Public school systems are sinking, but Democratic politicians are determined to keep children trapped inside them…except for those whose parents can afford private alternatives and elect to use them. Among the well-off parents who choose private schools, you’ll find plenty of Democratic school-choice opponents, like Barack Obama and Elizabeth Warren. 

     

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 22:00

  • Did Russia And China Just Announce A "New Global Reserve Currency"?
    Did Russia And China Just Announce A “New Global Reserve Currency”?

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    If you’ve blinked over the last month, you may have missed it…

    China and Russia are taking their shot at the U.S. dollar. And as often happens with consequential news in the United States and the West, no one seems to notice or even care.

    Since the beginning of the year, I have been writing about the possibility of Russia and China challenging the US dollar’s global reserve status. Now, it’s happening.

    It shouldn’t be any surprise to those paying attention that Russia and China are strengthening their economic ties amidst continued Western sanctions on Russia as a result of the country’s war in Ukraine.

    What may surprise some people, however, is that Russia and the BRICS countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, are officially working on their own “new global reserve currency,” RT reported in late June. Nobody even seemed to notice.


    “The issue of creating an international reserve currency based on a basket of currencies of our countries is being worked out,” Vladimir Putin said at the BRICS business forum last month.

    And of course, as Russia has been cut off from the SWIFT system, it is also pairing with China and the BRIC nations to develop “reliable alternative mechanisms for international payments” in order to “cut reliance on the Western financial system.”

    In the meantime, Russia is also taking other steps to strengthen the alliance between BRIC nations, including re-routing trade to China and India, according to CNN:

    President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Russia is rerouting trade to “reliable international partners” such as Brazil, India, China and South Africa as the West attempts to sever economic ties.

    “We are actively engaged in reorienting our trade flows and foreign economic contacts towards reliable international partners, primarily the BRICS countries,” Putin said in his opening video address to the participants of the virtual BRICS Summit.

    In fact, “trade between Russia and the BRICS countries increased by 38% and reached $45 billion in the first three months of the year” this year, the report says. Meanwhile, Russian crude sales to China have hit record numbers during Spring of this year, edging out Saudi Arabia as China’s primary oil supplier.

    “Together with BRICS partners, we are developing reliable alternative mechanisms for international settlements,” Putin said.

    China is buying more Russian oil than ever, but that doesn't mean that  Putin has total loyalty | Fortune

    Putin continued, stating last month: “Contacts between Russian business circles and the business community of the BRICS countries have intensified. For example, negotiations are underway to open Indian chain stores in Russia [and to] increase the share of Chinese cars, equipment and hardware on our market.”

    In June, Putin also accused the West of ignoring “the basic principles of [the] market economy” such as free trade. “It undermines business interests on a global scale, negatively affecting the wellbeing of people, in effect, of all countries,” he said.

    President Xi echoed Putin’s sentiments, according to a June writeup by Bloomberg:

    “Politicizing, instrumentalizing and weaponizing the world economy using a dominant position in the global financial system to wantonly impose sanctions would only hurt others as well as hurting oneself, leaving people around the world suffering. Those who obsess with a position of strength, expand their military alliance, and seek their own security at the expense of others will only fall into a security conundrum.”


    Today’s article is not behind a paywall, because I believe its content to be too important – but if you have the means and wish to support my work, I’d love to have you as a subscriber: Subscribe now


    The developments obviously further my long held belief that a gold backed global reserve currency is on its way – something I have been writing about for months.

    I’m also stunned that nobody seems to care that arguably the largest shift on the global macroeconomic playing field over the last half century may be taking place.

    Sure, under the context of the conflict in Ukraine, the news may seem “par for the course” of sorts, which may result in the media and the financial world downplaying it. But put this piece of information out there on its own, without context – that there is a coordinated global challenge taking place to the U.S. dollar – and it would be the biggest news story in decades. Imagine if China and Russia just dropped this out of nowhere? Now, remember that both countries have been working on, and preparing for, this situation for years.

    I mean, holy hell, look at Russia’s Treasury holdings as far back as 2018:

    Russia's dollar reserves likely shifted to swaps after it dumped Treasuries

    As I’ve noted before, Russia was also increasing its holdings of gold over the same period:

     

    And this headline came out in 2020, just months before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

    Does anyone think it’s a coincidence?

    Nikkei wrote at the time:

    Dedollarization has been a priority for Russia and China since 2014, when they began expanding economic cooperation following Moscow’s estrangement from the West over its annexation of Crimea. Replacing the dollar in trade settlements became a necessity to sidestep U.S. sanctions against Russia.

    Ergo, it seems to me that the BRIC nations understand exactly how precarious of a financial situation the U.S. – and our dollar – is in. Despite the dollar’s recent strengthening, these nations have been in the midst of a multi-decade-long plan to de-dollarize. Even before the Ukraine conflict started, both China and Russia were stockpiling gold and working on denominating transactions outside of the U.S. dollar. It was another “secret” that was out there in the open.

    Remember how “insane” this headline was just 6 months ago when I predicted it for the first time?

    Everybody told me that it was a stretch. Today, it isn’t so much anymore.


    Meanwhile, since the BRIC conference, ties between Russia and China continue to tighten, with Japan even warning this week about the pair’s “strengthening of military ties” – at the same time China has closely scrutinized a planned trip by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan.

    Japan said this past week:

    “As a result of the current aggression, it is possible that Russia’s national power in the medium- to longterm may decline, and the military balance within the region and military cooperation with China may change.

    In the vicinity of Japan, Russia has made moves to strengthen cooperation with China, such as through joint bomber flights and joint warship sails involving the Russian and Chinese militaries, as well as moves to portray such military cooperation as strategic coordination.”

    Japan said this alignment between the two countries “must continue to be closely watched in the future.”

    While the economic gears turn behind the scenes, China is also becoming incresingly cagey about Taiwan. The country “has sent warplanes into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense zone identification zone many times in recent months,” according to CNN, and recently alluded to the idea of a no-fly zone over Taiwan ahead of a planned visit by Nancy Pelosi.

    President Biden commented on Pelosi’s travel plans this week, stating: “The military thinks it’s not a good idea right now. But I don’t know what the status of it is.”

    We’re sure Pelosi will wind up going anyway. Remember, this is the same woman who danced her way through Chinatown while Covid was spreading to the U.S., from China, to prove she wasn’t racist.

    I can hear her en route to Taiwan now:

    “I negotiate million dollar stock trades for breakfast, I’m sure I can handle this Euro trash.”

    Hart Bochner interview: Ellis in Die Hard, directing, and more | Den of Geek


    Today’s article is not behind a paywall, because I believe its content to be too important – but if you have the means and wish to support my work, I’d love to have you as a subscriber: Subscribe now

    This post is public so feel free to share it: Share

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 21:30

  • Fauci Now Claims To Have 'Open Mind' About COVID Lab-Leak Theory
    Fauci Now Claims To Have ‘Open Mind’ About COVID Lab-Leak Theory

    In January, a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request revealed that Dr. Anthony Fauci not only initiated efforts to cover up evidence pointing to a Chinese lab as the origin of COVID-19, but that he actively shaped a highly influential academic paper that excluded the possibility of a lab leak.

    Fauci’s involvement with the paper wasn’t acknowledged by the authors, as it should have been under prevailing academic standards. Neither was it acknowledged by Fauci himself, who denied having communicated with the authors when asked directly while testifying before Congress – which we now know is a bald-faced lie.

    The article, Proximal Origin, was co-authored by five virologists, four of whom participated in a Feb. 1, 2020, teleconference that was hastily convened by Fauci, who serves as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), and Jeremy Farrar, who heads the UK-based Wellcome Trust, after public reporting of a potential link between the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China and the COVID-19 outbreak, according to the Epoch Times.

    The initial draft of Proximal Origin was completed on the same day the teleconference, which wasn’t made public, took place. Notably, at least three authors of the paper were privately telling Fauci’s teleconference group both during the call and in subsequent emails that they were 60 to 80 percent sure that COVID-19 had come out of a lab.

    (Oh, and at least three virologists involved in the drafting of Proximal Origin have seen substantial increases in funding from the agency since the paper was first published)

    Fast forward six months, and the World Health Organization (WHO) finally admitted that the lab leak theory – while maintaining that it’s not the most likely scenario – is a possibility that “needs study.”

    Now, Fauci is suddenly ‘open minded’ about the theory.

    As the Daily Mail reports, Fauci told Fox News’ Bret Baier on Friday: “We have an open mind but it looks very much like this was a natural occurrence, but you keep an open mind.”

    Baier grilled Fauci about a claim he made in April 2020, after being sent a link to a report made by Baier himself, that saw Fauci dismiss the lab leak theory as ‘a shiny object that will go away.’ 

    The Fox News anchor said: ‘When you read the email from Kristian Andersen who says…”one has to look really closely to see some features (potentially) look engineered.”

    ‘And you say this is a shiny object and it will go away. It does not look like you’re open minded to it.’

    Fauci appeared to try to deflect by flattering Baier, saying: ‘Bret, I know youre a good person, I know you a long time. 

    ‘If you take a group of emails when people are considering and thinking out loud, and stop there, and don’t look at the weeks of consideration by the same people who wrote the same emails… in published peer review literature, they explain why they thought it was a natural occurrence.’ -Daily Mail

     Watch:

    In February 2020, California-based virologist Kristen Anderson (who has since deleted more than 5,000 tweets) speculated that COVID looked to be genetically engineered.

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    And two months later, emails reveal that  then-National Institutes of Health Director Dr Francis Collins emailed Fauci a link to a Fox Report claiming ‘multiple sources’ believed COVID had leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology – writing “Wondering if there is something NIH can do to help put down this very destructive conspiracy, with what seems to be growing momentum.”

    Last October, a top NIH official admitted that the US-funded so-called “gain-of-function” research in Wuhan, China – and that the US nonprofit which conducted it, EcoHealth Alliance – led by the controversial Peter Daszak, “failed to report” that they had created a chimeric bat coronavirus which could infect humans.

    As we noted last September, proof that the US funded of GoF research was blown wide open thanks to materials (here and here) released through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit by The Intercept against the National Institutes of Health, revealing that EcoHealth was paid to make chimeric SARS-based Covid that they confirmed could infect human cells.

    While evidence of this research has been pointed to in published studies, the FOIA release provides a key piece to the puzzle which sheds new light on what was going on.

    This is a roadmap to the high-risk research that could have led to the current pandemic,” said Gary Ruskin, executive director of U.S. Right To Know, a group that has been investigating the origins of Covid-19 (via The Intercept).

    We also learned in September that 18 months before the Pandemic, Daszak applied for a grant to release enhanced airborne coronaviruses into the wild in an effort to inoculate them against diseases that could have otherwise jumped to humans, according to The Telegraph, citing leaked grant proposals from 2018.

    New documents show that just 18 months before the first Covid-19 cases appeared, researchers had submitted plans to release skin-penetrating nanoparticles containing “novel chimeric spike proteins” of bat coronaviruses into cave bats in Yunnan, China.

    They also planned to create chimeric viruses, genetically enhanced to infect humans more easily, and requested $14million from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) to fund the work.

    Daszak hoped to use genetic engineering to cobble “human-specific cleavage sites” onto bat Covid ‘which would make it easier for the virus to enter human cells’ – and included plans to commingle high-risk natural coronaviruses strains with more infectious, yet less deadly versions. His ‘bat team’ of researchers included Dr. Shi Zhengli from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, as well as US researchers from the University of North Carolina and the US Geological Survey National Wildlife Health Center.

    And now Fauci is ‘open minded’ to the possibility of a lab leak.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 21:00

  • The Talented Mr. Pottinger: The US Intelligence Agent Who Pushed Lockdowns
    The Talented Mr. Pottinger: The US Intelligence Agent Who Pushed Lockdowns

    Authored by Michael Senger via ‘The New Normal’ Substack,

    In 1948, the US House of Representatives received a tip from a man named Whittaker Chambers that several federal officials had been working for the communists. One of these officials was more than happy to appear before Congress to clear his name—a leading State Department and United Nations representative named Alger Hiss.

    The rakish Hiss was the exemplary American statesman: Polite, pedigreed, well-spoken, and a Harvard man to boot. During the 1945 United Nations conference, the Chinese delegation had proposed the creation of a new international health organization. After the Chinese failed to get a resolution passed, Hiss recommended establishing the organization by declaration, and the World Health Organization was born.

    In Congress, Hiss coolly denied the allegations and denounced his deadbeat accuser for the libelous claims. The House came away newly reassured that the State Department was in excellent hands.

    (Spoiler alert: He was then and always had been a communist.)

    The next year, intelligence leaks from the federal service led to the Soviet Union’s first successful nuclear test, ending the security afforded by America’s nuclear monopoly 15 years earlier than experts expected. Shortly thereafter, Kim Il-Sung and Chairman Mao used the cover of Soviet nuclear weapons to invade South Korea. The ensuing war claimed over 3 million lives and resulted in the permanent recognition of the nation of North Korea.

    Around this time, a little-known Congressman from California’s 12th district named Richard M. Nixon pressed Chambers for more information. Chambers reluctantly led Tricky Dick to a package of State Department materials he had hidden in a pumpkin patch—including notes in Hiss’s own writing. Alger Hiss became the most high-level American official ever convicted in connection with working for the communists.

    2022

    To be honest, I barely knew who Matt Pottinger was until I read that he’d appointed Deborah Birx as White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator in her bizarrely self-incriminating memoir Silent Invasion, which reads like it was written by the Chinese Communist Party itself. There’s little information about Pottinger’s role in Covid online.

    Yet Pottinger is portrayed as a leading protagonist in three different pro-lockdown books on America’s response to Covid-19: The Plague Year by the New Yorker’s Lawrence Wright, Nightmare Scenario by the Washington Post’s Yasmeen Abutaleb, and Chaos Under Heaven by the Washington Post’s Josh Rogin. Pottinger’s singularly outsized role in pushing for alarm, shutdowns, mandates, and science from China in the early months of Covid is extremely well-documented.

    Pottinger’s enormous influence during Covid is especially surprising not only because of his absence from online discussion about these events, but because of who he is.

    The son of leading Department of Justice official Stanley Pottinger, Matt Pottinger graduated with a degree in Chinese studies in 1998 before going to work as a journalist in China for seven years, where he reported on topics including the original SARS. In 2005, Pottinger unexpectedly left journalism and obtained an age waiver to join the US Marine Corps.

    Over several tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, Pottinger became a decorated intelligence officer and met General Michael Flynn, who later appointed him to the National Security Council (NSC). Pottinger was originally in line to be China Director, but Flynn gave him the more senior job of Asia Director.

    Despite being new to civilian government, Pottinger outlasted many others in Trump’s White House. In September 2019, Pottinger was named Deputy National Security Advisor, second only to National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien.

    Pottinger is best known as a China hawk, but a smart and sophisticated one. He’s been ahead of the curve in calling out China’s increasingly aggressive geopolitical stance, articulating this challenge with near-perfect eloquence.

    As Politico writes, “While hawks like Bannon love his tough views toward China, even Democrats call his views basically mainstream. Still, some foreign policy experts…wonder what a nice guy like him is doing in a place like this.” “He’s a very effective bureaucratic player, which is saying something because he’s never had a policy job before,” the New York Times agreed. “Matt has an extraordinary sense of caution that, ‘Let’s not push something unless the president clearly has approved it.’ This is different from other members of White House staff,” the Washington Post admired.

    While many Trump administration officials have floundered since Trump left the White House, “things are going well for Pottinger,” Vox gushed. “[T]hat subject matter expertise—plus the patina afforded by resigning on January 6—has helped Pottinger, a former journalist, expertly navigate the post-Trump landscape. He even emerged as the White House hero of the initial Covid-19 chaos in New Yorker writer Lawrence Wright’s chronicle of The Plague Year… One reason that Matt Pottinger was welcomed back into the establishment is that, unlike some of Trump’s unconventional appointees, he had already been a part of the elite.”

    From the center-right to the center-left and the far right to the far left, it’s tough to find anyone on the Beltway short on praise for Matt Pottinger. Everything about Pottinger is silky smooth. Between the lines of glowing coverage are not-so-subtle winks and nudges that he’d make an excellent candidate for higher office.

    2020

    1. Ratcheting Up Alarm via “Asymptomatic Spread”

    In January 2020, Pottinger unilaterally called meetings and ratcheted up alarm about the new coronavirus in the White House based on information from his own sources in China, despite having no official intelligence to back up his alarmism, breaching protocol on several occasions.

    In Washington, Matt Pottinger was first made aware of the new coronavirus after China’s CDC Director called US CDC Director Robert Redfield to report it on January 3, 2020. According to Pottinger, he grew increasingly alarmed due to the rumors he saw on Chinese social media. As Wright reports:

    He was struck by the disparity between official accounts of the novel coronavirus in China, which scarcely mentioned the disease, and Chinese social media, which was aflame with rumors and anecdotes.

    Pottinger therefore authorized the first interagency meeting on the coronavirus based on these social media reports. There was no official intelligence to prompt the meeting.

    On January 14, Pottinger authorized a briefing for the NSC staff by the State Department and the Department of Health and Human Services, along with CDC director Redfield. That first interagency meeting to discuss the situation in Wuhan wasn’t prompted by official intelligence; in fact, there was practically none of that.

    On January 27, 2020, Trump’s staff attended the first full meeting on the coronavirus in the White House Situation Room. Unbeknownst to those in attendance, Pottinger had unilaterally called the meeting. Others urged calm, but Pottinger immediately began pushing for travel bans. As Abutaleb writes:

    Few people in the room knew it, but Pottinger had actually called the meeting. The Chinese weren’t providing the US government much information about the virus, and Pottinger didn’t trust what they were disclosing anyway. He had spent two weeks scouring Chinese social media feeds and had uncovered dramatic reports of the new infectious disease suggesting that it was much worse than the Chinese government had revealed. He had also seen reports that the virus might have escaped from a lab in Wuhan, China. There were too many unanswered questions. He told everyone in the Sit Room that they needed to consider enacting a travel ban immediately: ban all travel from China; shut it down

    [Pottinger] spent several days calling some of his old contacts in China, doctors who would tell him the truth. And they had told him that things were bad—and only going to get worse. Pottinger’s discourse was measured but he conveyed the gravity of the threat. He said that the virus was spreading fast. He said that dramatic actions would need to be taken, which was why the government should consider banning travel from China to the United States until it had a better understanding of what was going on. As he continued, people sat up in their chairs. This was not the “we’ve got everything handled” message that Azar had conveyed just minutes earlier.

    As Wright documents, the health officials thought travel restrictions would be futile.

    Predictably, the public health representatives were resistant, too: viruses found ways to travel no matter what. Moreover, at least 14,000 passengers from China were arriving in the U.S. every day; there was no feasible way to quarantine them all. These arguments would join a parade of other public health verities that would be jettisoned during the pandemic.

    Among those present, Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney appears to have been the only one to express skepticism of Pottinger’s information. As Abutaleb writes:

    Mulvaney intervened to wrap things up. He could tell that Pottinger and a few others were calling for a dramatic change, one that was an anathema to his libertarian instincts. He was pretty skeptical of Pottinger’s “sources” in China, too. They weren’t going to be setting US policy based on what someone had heard from their “friend” thousands of miles away. Mulvaney reiterated that they would reconvene the next day to discuss matters again before anything was settled. He warned attendees not to leak any details of the meeting to the media.

    The next morning, January 28, 2020, Pottinger says he spoke to a doctor in China who told him the new coronavirus would be as bad as the 1918 Spanish flu, and that half the cases were asymptomatic. As Rogin writes:

    The next morning, Pottinger had a conversation with a very high-level doctor in China, one who had spoken with health officials in several provinces, including Wuhan. This was a trusted source who was in a position to know the ground truth. “Is this going to be as bad as SARS in 2003?” he asked the doctor, whose name must remain secret for his own protection. “Forget SARS in 2003,” the doctor replied, “this is 1918.”

    The doctor told Pottinger half the cases were asymptomatic and the government must have known all about it.

    Later that same day, National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien brought Pottinger into the Oval Office, where he seized the first opportunity to repeat to the President what the doctor in China had told him that morning.

    “This is the single greatest national security crisis of your presidency and it’s now unfolding,” O’Brien told the president. “It’s going to be 1918,” Pottinger told Trump. “Holy fuck,” the president replied.

    Wright goes into more detail on this meeting, in which Pottinger interjected to alarm the President:

    Later that day, the national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, brought Pottinger into the Oval Office, where the president was getting his daily intelligence briefing. Far down the list of threats was the mysterious new virus in China. The briefer didn’t seem to take it seriously. O’Brien did. “This will be the biggest national security threat you will face in your presidency,” he warned. “Is this going to be as bad or worse than SARS in 2003?” Trump asked. The briefer responded that it wasn’t clear yet. Pottinger, who was sitting on a couch, jumped to his feet. He had seen enough high-level arguments in the Oval Office to know that Trump relished clashes between agencies. “Mr. President, I actually covered that,” he said, recounting his experience with SARS and what he was learning now from his sources—most shockingly, that more than half of the spread of the disease was by asymptomatic carriers. China had already curbed travel within the country, but every day thousands of people were traveling from China to the U.S.—half a million in January alone. “Should we shut down travel?” the president asked. “Yes,” Pottinger said unequivocally.

    That same day, Pottinger and the White House staff reconvened in the Situation Room. Pottinger recalls that he’d been especially inspired into action by Xi Jinping’s lockdown of Wuhan and by the hospital that the CCP claims to have built in 10 days, but did not actually build. As Abutaleb reports:

    A few hours later, Pottinger and other government officials filed back into the Situation Room. Pottinger knew he was going to be outnumbered. Mulvaney and his allies didn’t want to allow the NSC to do anything that might be too disruptive. Blocking travel from China would be an unprecedented intervention. And over what? Five cases of the sniffles in the United States?…

    On January 23, China announced that it was locking down Wuhan, a city of 11 million people. The shutdown was extended to several more cities in the coming days, with travel prohibited inside much of the country. Tens of millions of people were effectively locked in their homes. The Chinese were rapidly building an entire hospital in Wuhan that was completed within days. Everyone in the country was wearing a mask. People in hazmat suits took passengers’ temperatures before anyone was allowed into the subway. China had gone from reluctantly admitting that there had been a few cases of person-to-person spread to shutting down the world’s second largest economy. If the virus had brought the world’s most populous country to a standstill, some top US officials, especially Pottinger, knew they should be doing more.

    As Deputy National Security Advisor, Pottinger was supposed to “avoid arguing forcefully for any particular outcome,” so he brought Peter Navarro to make his arguments for him. Abutaleb continues:

    But as deputy national security advisor, Pottinger was in an awkward position. He was supposed to be chairing the meeting, which meant that his job was to solicit input from others in the room and avoid arguing forcefully for any particular outcome. That fact tied his hands. He needed someone else to make the more pointed parts of his argument for him. Someone who would stand up to everyone else in the room unflinchingly. He knew just the person: a reviled troublemaker named Peter Navarro, the director of the White House National Trade Council…

    Pottinger’s plan to use Navarro as his mouthpiece seemed to work initially, but then Navarro kept going. And going… They needed to ban travel, and they needed to do it now.

    Pottinger had been waiting for an opening. He told his colleagues that he had come across some alarming information: Chinese officials were no longer able to contact trace the virus. In other words, it was so widespread that they couldn’t determine where people had contracted it. And he relayed the Chinese suspicions about asymptomatic spread: people who seemed perfectly healthy were transmitting the virus, not just in China but potentially everywhere, including in the United States.

    Once again, Mulvaney was skeptical of Pottinger. Three months prior, Navarro had been caught citing himself as an expert source using the pseudonym “Ron Vara”:

    Mulvaney couldn’t believe what he was witnessing. Pottinger and Navarro had nearly pulled off a policy ambush. “Look,” Mulvaney told someone at the meeting, “I’ve got Pottinger with a friend of his in Hong Kong as a source. I’ve got Navarro, who makes up his sources, and then on the other side of the equation I’ve got Kadlec and Fauci and Redfield, three experts, who say not to shut down flights just yet.”

    A health expert pointed out that the statistic Pottinger had reported from the doctor in China about asymptomatic spread couldn’t be true.

    One of the government health experts pulled Pottinger aside. The stat Pottinger had cited, the one about half of all people with the virus being asymptomatic, there’s just no way that can be true, the person said. No one has ever heard of a coronavirus similar to SARS or MERS whose spread can be driven in part by asymptomatic carriers. That would be a game changer.

    On February 1, Mulvaney tried to rein Pottinger in. As Rogin reports:

    Concerned about the political implications, Mulvaney tried to rein in Pottinger. He took O’Brien aside and told him, “You’ve got to get Pottinger under control.” Pottinger was too young, Mulvaney said, and too immature to be deputy national security adviser. Mulvaney was among the most skeptical of all the White House officials that the virus threat was real. In late February, as the markets tanked, Mulvaney said the media was exaggerating the threat in an effort to bring down President Trump, calling it the “hoax of the day.” As he prepared the White House’s first budget to respond to the emerging crisis, Mulvaney pegged the total cost at $800 million. (Mulvaney was pushed out in early March.)

    2. Pottinger’s Crusade for Universal Masking

    In February 2020, Pottinger, who has no background in science or public health, began a months-long campaign to popularize universal masking and travel quarantines in response to the coronavirus based on information from his own sources in China.

    Beginning in February 2020, Pottinger began a crusade for Americans to adopt universal masking in response to the new coronavirus based on recommendations from his own sources in China. As Abutaleb writes:

    Back in February, Matt Pottinger had relayed what he had hoped would be received as good news by the Coronavirus Task Force. His contacts in China had found a way to significantly slow the virus’s spread: face coverings.

    Pottinger began wearing a mask to work in early March to convince his White House colleagues to take up the practice.

    A mask, however, could significantly stem transmission, Pottinger argued. If people’s noses and mouths were covered, they would emit far fewer respiratory droplets, lowering the risk of infecting others. Pottinger began wearing a mask to work in early March. But he didn’t wear a simple cloth face covering; he wore what other White House aides thought was a gas mask. He looked like a lunatic, some snickered, and it reinforced his reputation as an alarmist. One staffer described him as “being at a hundred” as early as January (on a scale of 1 to 10 in terms of concern).

    Pottinger, who has no background in science or public health, pushed for mask mandates in the White House and for staff to be quarantined if they traveled outside Washington.

    Having lived in China during the SARS outbreak, he saw the importance of the speed with which Asian countries had mobilized. In early February, he recommended that NSC staffers who traveled outside Washington—even to other parts of the United States—quarantine before returning to work. He also wanted NSC staff to telework when possible, limit in-person meetings, restrict the number of people who could be in a room at one time, and be required to wear masks. That struck many White House aides as absurd. There were just a handful of known cases at the time; the virus was barely a blip on most people’s radars. No one else was changing their workplace standards…

    Pottinger urged the adoption of universal masking as had been ordered by “governments in China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.”

    Pottinger pointed to a handful of Asian countries where the use of face coverings was universal. The governments in China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong had ordered their citizens to wear masks with seemingly indisputable results.

    Pottinger saw no “downside” in universal masking, though there was no data and research to show it was effective.

    Pottinger’s heart sank as he saw the tweet and the ensuing messages. What was the downside in having people cover their faces while they waited for more data and research about how effective masks might be?

    Pottinger proposed delivering a mask to every mailbox in America. As Wright reports:

    Pottinger and Robert Kadlec, an assistant secretary at Health and Human Services, came up with an idea to put masks in every mailbox in America. Hanes, the underwear company, offered to make antimicrobial masks that were machine washable. “We couldn’t get it through the task force,” Pottinger told his brother. “We got machine-gunned down before we could even move on it.” Masks were still seen as useless or even harmful by the administration and even public health officials.

    Matt Pottinger’s crusade for the adoption of universal masking based on information from his own sources in China is especially peculiar because, as of the time of this writing, though there are hundreds of pictures of Pottinger online, there does not appear to be a single one in which he is wearing a mask anywhere on the Internet.

    3. Popularizing Shutdowns

    In January 2020, Pottinger popularized shutdowns within the White House using a dubious study on the 1918 flu pandemic comparing outcomes between Philadelphia and St. Louis, a month before this study received any significant media attention.

    If you live in the United States, you probably remember the ludicrous study that made the rounds among major media outlets in March 2020 comparing outcomes in Philadelphia and St. Louis during the 1918 Spanish flu. According to the study, St. Louis canceled its annual parade, closed schools, and discouraged gatherings in 1918, while Philadelphia did not, so Philadelphia was punished when thousands of residents died of flu over the coming weeks. Therefore, these media outlets argued, it somehow logically followed that we should shut down the entire United States economy in 2020.

    One man who was several weeks ahead of media outlets in citing this claptrap was Matt Pottinger. As Wright reports, Pottinger began popularizing the idea of shutdowns within the White House by circulating this study among his White House colleagues on January 31, 2020.

    Matt Pottinger handed out a study of the 1918 flu pandemic to his colleagues in the White House, indicating the differing outcomes between the experiences of Philadelphia and St. Louis—a clear example of the importance of leadership, transparency, and following the best scientific counsel.

    4. Appointing Deborah Birx as White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator

    Beginning in January 2020, Pottinger began petitioning for Deborah Birx to be appointed as White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator. Birx then embarked on a months-long scorched earth campaign for lockdowns that were as long and strict as possible across the United States.

    On January 28, 2020, Pottinger began to reach out to Deborah Birx to have her come to the White House to lead the response to the Coronavirus. As Birx recalls in her book:

    On January 28, after meeting with Erin Walsh to solidify the planning and schedule for the upcoming African Diplomatic Corps State Department meeting, I received a text from Yen Pottinger. Aside from being the wife of my friend Matt, the deputy national security advisor, Yen was also a former colleague at the CDC and a trusted friend and neighbor…

    Matt had apologized for the short notice and said he hoped we could meet face-to-face. Yen arranged so that I could meet him in the West Wing, and once we were both there, Matt got to the point quickly. He offered me the position of White House spokesperson on the virus.

    Abutaleb goes into more detail on Birx’s relationship with Pottinger. Pottinger was married to one of Birx’s subordinates who’d developed a widely-used HIV test at the CDC.

    [Birx] made a number of powerful connections along the way. When she became head of the CDC’s Division of Global HIV/AIDS, one of her subordinates was a bright virologist named Yen Duong, who developed a widely used HIV test while working at the agency. Duong would eventually marry a Wall Street Journal reporter turned marine named Matt Pottinger, a connection that would eventually bring Birx into Trump’s orbit.

    According to Pottinger and Birx, he pleaded with her over several weeks to head the Coronavirus Task Force, and she reluctantly agreed. The hero we didn’t need. As Birx recalls in her book:

    It is March 2, 2020. I’ve just flown in overnight from South Africa to take on the role of response coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, a job I didn’t seek but felt compelled to accept. I’m physically tired but mentally alert. After weeks of urging from Matthew Pottinger— President Trump’s deputy national security advisor, a task force member himself, and the husband of a former colleague and friend of mine—I finally gave in to Matt’s request that I come on board to help with the response to the coronavirus outbreak…

    Matt Pottinger, was one of the good ones in the Trump White House. A former journalist turned highly-decorated U.S. Marine who served as an intelligence officer for part of his time, Matt had deep experience in China (including during the 2002–2003 SARS outbreak there) and was fluent in Mandarin. Matt took a position in the National Security Council in the earliest stage of the Trump administration, while still serving in the Marine Reserves.

    As documented in her bizarre tell-all book, which received uniquely excellent reviews from Chinese state media, Birx then embarked on a months-long, largely clandestine, scorched-earth crusade to orchestrate lockdowns that were as long and strict as possible across the United States. These lockdowns ultimately killed tens of thousands of young Americans while failing to meaningfully slow the spread of the coronavirus everywhere they were tried. By her own admission, she lied, hid data, and manipulated the president’s administration to drive consent for lockdowns that were stricter than the administration realized until finally stepping down soon after breaking her own travel guidance to visit her family for Thanksgiving in November 2020.

    No sooner had we convinced the Trump administration to implement our version of a two-week shutdown than I was trying to figure out how to extend it. Fifteen Days to Slow the Spread was a start, but I knew it would be just that. I didn’t have the numbers in front of me yet to make the case for extending it longer, but I had two weeks to get them. However hard it had been to get the fifteen-day shutdown approved, getting another one would be more difficult by many orders of magnitude.

    In October 2020, while visiting Utah, Pottinger admired his handiwork in appointing Birx. Wright reports:

    Utah had just hit a record high number of new cases. On the ride, an alarm sounded on Pottinger’s cell phone in the saddlebag. It was an alert: “Almost every single county is a high transmission area. Hospitals are nearly overwhelmed. By public health order masks are required in high transmission areas.” Pottinger thought, “Debi must have met with the governor.”

    5. Promoting Mass Testing

    Sometime in February 2020, Pottinger, who has no background in science or public health, appears to have promoted within the White House the idea of mass testing for the coronavirus. Wright recounts:

    At a Coronavirus Task Force meeting, Redfield announced that the CDC would send a limited number of test kits to five “sentinel cities.” Pottinger was stunned: five cities? Why not send them everywhere? He learned that the CDC makes tests, but not at scale. For that, you have to go to a company like Roche or Abbott—molecular testing powerhouses which have the experience and capacity to manufacture millions of tests a month.

    Using the standard PCR cycle thresholds of 37 to 40 later provided in the testing guidance published by the WHO, approximately 85% to 90% of these cases were false positives, as later confirmed by The New York Times.

    6. Endorsing Remdesivir

    In March 2020, Pottinger appears to have endorsed use of the drug remdesivir as a possible Covid therapy based on information from a doctor in China. Wright reports:

    In the early morning of March 4, as Matt Pottinger was driving to the White House, he was on the phone with a source in China, a doctor. Taking notes on the back of an envelope while holding the phone to his ear and navigating the city traffic, Pottinger was excited by all the valuable new information about how the virus was being contained in China. The doctor specifically mentioned the antiviral drug remdesivir.

    The health outcomes of remdesivir remain unknown, but no benefit to the mortality of its recipients has been proven.

    7. Pushing Intelligence to Believe Covid Came From a Lab

    Pottinger has continually promoted the idea that the coronavirus came from a lab, and specifically prodded the US intelligence community to do the same, regardless of evidence, while urging the global adoption of China’s virus containment measures.

    In January 2020, Pottinger began directly prodding the CIA to look for evidence that the coronavirus came from a lab in Wuhan, China. As the New York Times disclosed:

    With his skeptical—some might even say conspiratorial—view of China’s ruling Communist Party, Mr. Pottinger initially suspected that President Xi Jinping’s government was keeping a dark secret: that the virus may have originated in one of the laboratories in Wuhan studying deadly pathogens. In his view, it might have even been a deadly accident unleashed on an unsuspecting Chinese population.

    During meetings and telephone calls, Mr. Pottinger asked intelligence agencies—including officers at the C.I.A. working on Asia and on weapons of mass destruction—to search for evidence that might bolster his theory.

    They didn’t have any evidence. Intelligence agencies did not detect any alarm inside the Chinese government that analysts presumed would accompany the accidental leak of a deadly virus from a government laboratory. But Mr. Pottinger continued to believe the coronavirus problem was far worse than the Chinese were acknowledging.

    Though the CIA did not return any evidence to support his theory, Pottinger has continued to promote the conclusion that the coronavirus leaked from the Wuhan lab, despite quietly admitting that the virus was not man-made or genetically modified. As CBS reported in its interview on February 21, 2021:

    MARGARET BRENNAN: U.S. intelligence has said COVID, according to wide scientific consensus, was not man-made or genetically modified. You are not in any way alleging that it was, are you?
     
    MATT POTTINGER: No.

    Much of the initial alarm that Covid might be a supervirus from the Wuhan lab arose because of the frightening videos of Wuhan residents spontaneously dying in January 2020, and because Xi Jinping decided to shut down Wuhan, where the lab was. However, all of those videos were soon proven fake, and US intelligence has confirmed that the virus was spreading in Wuhan by November 2019 at the latest. A growing body of research suggests that the virus did not start either in the Wuhan lab or the Wuhan wet market, and a number of studies from various continents have shown that the virus was also spreading undetected all over the world by November 2019 at the latest, many months before lockdowns began.

    Covid’s origins remain a mystery, and leading scientists and policymakers were nowhere near transparent enough about their panic that the virus might have come from a lab in early 2020. However, given that the national security community has quietly admitted Covid is not genetically modified, it began spreading undetected globally many months before lockdowns, and it did not cause Wuhan residents to spontaneously die, the question of whether Covid came from the lab would appear to be a moot point from a national security perspective.

    Furthermore, in my book and elsewhere, there is a growing body of evidence that the CCP used a variety of clandestine means to promote the idea that Covid came from a lab, both to stoke fear and to mislead the western intelligence community from the CCP’s well-documented campaign for global adoption of China’s virus containment measures. Likewise, Pottinger has continually promoted the idea that Covid came from a lab, and prodded the intelligence community to do the same, while urging the adoption of China’s virus containment measures. Pottinger’s credulousness in sharing and promoting scientific concepts and policies from China including asymptomatic spread, universal masking, quarantines, shutdowns, and remdesivir further belies the notion that the fixation on the Wuhan lab serves any legitimate national security interest.

    In summary, as Deputy National Security Advisor, Matt Pottinger played a singularly outsized role in shaping America’s disastrous response to Covid by taking the following actions:

    1. Throughout January 2020, Pottinger unilaterally called White House meetings unbeknownst to those in attendance and breached protocol to ratchet up alarm about the new coronavirus based on information from his own sources in China, despite having no official intelligence to back up his alarmism.

    2. Despite having no background in science or public health, beginning in February 2020, Pottinger embarked on a months-long campaign to urge the adoption of universal masking and travel quarantines in response to the coronavirus based on information from his own sources in China. However, there does not appear to be a single picture of Pottinger wearing a mask anywhere on the Internet.

    3. Pottinger popularized the idea of shutdowns within the White House using a questionable study on the 1918 flu pandemic comparing outcomes between Philadelphia and St. Louis, a month before this study received any significant attention from media outlets in 2020.

    4. Pottinger specifically courted Deborah Birx to serve as White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, who then embarked on a months-long campaign for lockdowns that were as long and strict as possible across the United States.

    5. Despite having no background in science or public health, Pottinger appears to have promoted the idea of mass testing for the coronavirus.

    6. Pottinger appears to have endorsed use of the drug remdesivir as a possible Covid therapy based on information from a doctor in China.

    7. Pottinger has continually promoted the conclusion that the coronavirus came from a lab, and specifically prodded the US intelligence community to do the same, regardless of evidence to support that conclusion, while simultaneously urging the global adoption of China’s virus containment measures.

    In Pottinger’s speeches, he often discusses the need for more grassroots populism in China.

    Pottinger may have simply been overly-trusting of his sources, thinking they were the little people in China trying to help their American friends. But why did Pottinger push so hard for sweeping Chinese policies like mask mandates that were far outside his field of expertise? Why did he so often breach protocol? Why seek out and appoint Deborah Birx?

    Pottinger’s zealousness in endorsing these sweeping policies is even more bewildering because it’s widely known in the intelligence community that the CCP’s primary focus is on information warfare—“superseding their cultural and political values” to those of the west and undermining the western values that Xi Jinping sees as threatening, outlined in his leaked Document No. 9: “independent judiciaries,” “human rights,” “western freedom,” “civil society,” “freedom of the press,” and the “free flow of information on the internet.”

    Though political conditions in China have deteriorated rapidly, Pottinger is supposed to know that—that’s why he had the Top Secret security clearance and the big job in the National Security Council. In fact, we know how rapidly conditions in China have deteriorated in part because Matt Pottinger is the one who told us. The only reason anyone accepted all this information and guidance from these Chinese sources is that it came through Pottinger.

    I certainly can’t pass judgment. But from where I’m sitting, it looks like we’ve been struck by a smooth criminal.

    *  *  *

    Michael P Senger is an attorney and author of Snake Oil: How Xi Jinping Shut Down the World. Want to support my work? Get the book. Already got the book? Leave a quick review.

    The New Normal is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 20:30

  • Tesla Is Refunding Cybertruck Reservations In Australia
    Tesla Is Refunding Cybertruck Reservations In Australia

    Well, the Cybertruck was a nice idea while it lasted…at least in Australia, where Muscle Cars and Trucks reported late this week that Tesla is starting to refund reservations for the vehicle. 

    The article notes that Tesla stopped taking reservations for the truck in Europe and China due to a three year wait on deliveries – and that’s after the company finally gets production started, which could still be a while away.

    Now, in Australia, the company could be doing away with the Cybertruck for good, according to the report. “Tesla will start refunding those with a reservation in Australia as the Cybertruck won’t be making its way to The Outback anytime soon, if at all,” writes Muscle Cars and Trucks. 

    Tesla is also said to have an astounding 1.2 million pre-orders for the Cybertruck, amounting to $120 million in revenue, all from individual $100 reservations. Australia makes up about 38,000 of these reservations, the report says. 

    The Cybertruck was taken down from Tesla’s website in early 2022 and reservation holders have been notified by the company that they are eligible for refunds. But, as the report notes, those who want a full refund will have to apply for it. 

    We’re sure that process won’t be unduly burdensome or tenuous at all…

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 20:00

  • ETH Strikes Back
    ETH Strikes Back

    By Donovan Choy of Bankless

    Is the bear market over already?

    ETH is up 31% this week at ~1.5K, leading the market in the first substantial rally in many months after a 69% drawdown from its peak of ~4.8K this March. 

    Macro indicators are still bleak and bleaker. The ECB announced it’s getting in on rate hikes for the first time in over a decade. Over in the US, there are rumblings of a 100 basis point raise for July’s Fed meeting. 

    What explains the recent price rally? Is the impending Merge being priced in? Or just another bull trap?

    * * *

    Incoming zkEVM

    It’s ETH CC week, and the biggest piece of news sweeping crypto is the launch of zkEVMs. 

    …So what are these bad boys?

    1. EVM-compatibility (Ethereum Virtual Machine) allows any Web3 project to plug into Ethereum’s established infrastructure and user base.

    2. Then zk-rollups (zero knowledge) are a major Layer 2 scaling boon. Vitalik himself said they were the end game.

    zkEVMs combines them both. 

    Devs like it because they can deploy smart contracts and integrate Ethereum tools in the same way they would on Ethereum, yet with faster speeds and lower cost.

    Ok so, zkEVMs are great. That means there’s big competition for optimistic rollups. A total of three zkEVM projects are coming out the bull gate this week by the Scroll team, zkSync and Polygon. They’re all in pre-alpha phases at the moment. It’s a sign of big things coming for Ethereum.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    For more complete details, check out Bankless articles published this week: William Peaster’s coverage of zkEVMs and Ben Giove on under-the-radar L2s that are poised for growth.

    Three Arrows Capital troubles, continued

    I wrote last week in “DeFi Will Never Diethat the ongoing problems with centralized crypto banks isn’t one of risky trades per se, but rather how the rules of the system poorly deal with that risk. 

    DeFi mitigates that risk inherently through built-in transparency on the blockchain because protocols are forced to air their dirty laundry in public, and quickly start paying those loans if that laundry begins to pile up. David Hoffman calls this “The New Supreme Court”:

    “The legal courts overseeing the Celsius and 3AC cases are subordinate to the court of the EVM; the code that enforces the smart contracts that power the DeFi lending applications. The EVM is the most superior court in the world. The legal contract system of nation-state courts is junior to Ethereum and the EVM. 

    When markets break down, they revert back to a system of lawyers and courts, and we are currently witnessing that in the cases of 3AC and Celcius. Long-drawn-out court proceedings are beginning; meanwhile, DeFi is still chugging away and onto the next thing. And no DeFi lenders lost a dime.”

    Crypto banks, though, are opaque and prone to risky leveraging calls. In this case, that risk bubbled into a public health epidemic of sorts.

    A thousand page legal document revealed this week that Three Arrows Capital owed 27 crypto companies a total of $3.5B, of which the largest chunk belongs to crypto lender Genesis that made an undercollaterized loan of $2.36B. In second place is Voyager with a loan of ~$685M, who filed bankruptcy two weeks ago.

    Genesis’ loans were collateralized by 17.4M shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, 447K of Grayscale Ethereum Trust; 2,7M AVAX, and 13,5M of NEAR — all of which are down bad in the past quarter. 

    While Genesis made the mistake of making a loan to the overleveraged 3AC, it had the good risk management sense to liquidate losses relatively early, thanks to a margin requirement of at least 80%.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Celsius, on the other hand, is suffering a shortfall of at least $1.2B based on a new filing, with  $5.5B in liabilities and $4.3B in assets.

    * * *

    Web3 News Roundup

    Aave and Balancer strategic partnership

    A huge governance proposal proposed back in March was unanimously passed this week that saw both DAOs swapping 16,908 AAVE ($1.63M) for 200,000 BAL ($1.13M) to create more synergy within their ecosystems and diversify each other’s treasuries. 

    The strategy: This enables BAL tokens to be paired in Aave’s BAL:ETH pool on Balancer, which is then locked for a year to receive veBAL tokens that in turn can be used to vote for more BAL rewards on Aave-supported pools. More liquidity and better yields for Aave.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Minecraft bans NFTs

    In Minecraft’s official release:

    Each of these uses of NFTs and other blockchain technologies creates digital ownership based on scarcity and exclusion, which does not align with Minecraft values of creative inclusion and playing together. NFTs are not inclusive of all our community and create a scenario of the haves and the have-nots. The speculative pricing and investment mentality around NFTs takes the focus away from playing the game and encourages profiteering, which we think is inconsistent with the long-term joy and success of our players.

    I think this is all wrong. An old piece I wrote for Bankless argued that gamers shouldn’t reject, but embrace NFTs. The introduction of a profit motive into NFTs is what will make video gaming better, not worse:

    The non-fungible-tokenization of third-party skins, maps, and patches opens a lucrative door for the thousands of Skyrim, Half-Life, and Minecraft gaming modders and creators of user-generated content to distribute their creations for free while getting paid for it by their “100 true fans”.

    It’s also particularly rich for Microsoft to lambast NFTs for chasing a “profit motive,” when the company itself takes a cut from user-generated content:

    For many years, Microsoft enforced intellectual property laws that allowed Minecraft users to modify and create user-generated content, but prohibited them from selling officially licensed code for profit, effectively maintaining a gray economy of passionate fans that lived to serve them.

    In other words, Microsoft is saying: Profit for me and not for thee.

    Other news: 

    The Merge has an unofficial date…?; Opensea lays off 20% of their staff due to an “unprecedented combination of crypto winter and broad macroeconomic instability”; Circle is increasing transparency around USDC in a monthly report; Curve Finance rumors of a stablecoin; Across Protocol launches; Three Arrows Founders break silence over collapse of crypto hedge fund.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 19:30

  • Land Of Waste: American Landfills By State
    Land Of Waste: American Landfills By State

    Each American produces a whopping 1,700 pounds of waste every year, making the United States the world’s most wasteful country.

    As Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti details below, approximately half of the country’s yearly waste will meet its fate in one of the more than 2,000 active landfills across the nation.

    In this graphic by Northstar Clean Technologies, we map and compare different states’ landfill waste per capita, using data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

    States With Highest Tons of Waste Per Person

    Upper Midwestern and eastern industrial states rank highly on the trash-per-capita list, with Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Ohio taking the top five spots.

    The availability of cheap landfill space in Michigan attracts trucked-in garbage from out of state and even from Canada. That’s because, under the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution, waste is considered a commodity, and states and counties cannot restrict its import or export from other states or even other countries.

    The state also faces challenges with recycling. Michigan’s statewide recycling rate is around 18%, while the national recycling rate is 32%.

     

    Some states are accumulating new landfill waste faster than others. Indiana leads the nation with an annual “landfill waste acceptance rate” of 2.35 tons per year per resident.

     

    States with Fewest Tons of Waste Per Person

    More sparsely populated states such as Wyoming, Idaho, Maine, Vermont, and North and South Dakota, all rank among the states with the least landfill trash per resident.

    Largely because it accepts considerably less trash by volume than most other states, Connecticut hosts the least buried trash per person, with only 8.7 tons per resident.

     

    Food waste, plastics, and paper products make up more than half the garbage in U.S. landfills but other products like glass and metals, for example, can have a significant impact on the environment.

     

    A Multi-Billion Dollar Opportunity

    One of the major sources of waste is the construction industry. Every year, around 12 million tons of used asphalt shingles are dumped into landfills across North America.

    However, this material can be repurposed to create new materials like fiber, liquid asphalt, and construction aggregate, generating revenue while fighting climate change. In neighbor Canada, for example, recovering and reprocessing shingles is already a $1.3 billion market.

    In this context, repurposing waste has not only become essential to minimizing waste, but also to creating new business opportunities going forward.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 19:00

  • Victor Davis Hanson: The Left Should Be Happy With Biden
    Victor Davis Hanson: The Left Should Be Happy With Biden

    Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmGreatness.com,

    The Left should be ecstatic that Joe Biden has given them everything they wanted. 

    The Left likes inflation. It reduces the value of old money by printing lots of new money. Those richer who have it, lose the value of their money; those poorer who don’t have any money, suddenly do. 

    When combined with low interest rates, inflation roars even louder. Not since Jimmy Carter has a Democrat been so insistent on inflating the money supply. 

    For decades, the Left has amplified former Energy Secretary Steven Chu’s 2008 dream that the government must spike fuel costs up to European levels. That was seen as the best way to force unsophisticated Americans to quit burning gas and transition to renewable energy. Biden took that sermon seriously. 

    He canceled federal energy leases. He shut down ANWR. He canceled pipelines and warned the oil industry its days were numbered. Biden has done more than any other Democrat to ensure fossil fuels were unaffordable, forcing America’s supposedly unthinking consumers to drive less or consider ditching their gas-engine cars altogether. 

    The hard American Left always wanted unlimited illegal immigration. Biden agreed and destroyed the southern border as we knew it. 

    The result is that in less than two years, nearly 3 million illegal aliens have surged into the United States. Nearly all of them arrived unvaccinated, untested, and unaudited at a time of a COVID pandemic. 

    Biden worries little that record numbers of Americans are dying from drugs that now pour across the border. Cartels became richer and more powerful than ever under his watch, while child traffickers were freed from worries. 

    Biden did more than any prior Democrat to ensure massive illegal immigration as part of the leftist dream of flipping red states blue by changing the demography. 

    The Left rails about imperialism, neo-colonialism, and military expenditure. Joe Biden without warning simply yanked all troops from Afghanistan. He abandoned a $1 billion new embassy, a $300 million refitted U.S. air base, and $80 billion worth of sophisticated arms and equipment. 

    In other words, Biden did more than any other prior Democrat to ensure the United States was humbled abroad, and its expeditionary forces taught a lesson about the evils of foreign interventions. 

    The Left fetishizes race. It enshrined the idea of “good” racial discrimination: to stop racial bias, one must be racially biased. 

    Biden was the first president to promise in advance that his vice-presidential running mate had to be both black and female. For his cabinet picks, Biden ignored most criteria of prior experience or specific expertise, but instead ensured that his administration was “diverse.” 

    No prior Democratic president has been so beholden to identity politics or so consistently used de facto racial, gender, and sexual identity quotas in his presidential appointees. 

    The Left for years has railed about the criminal justice system. It believes punishment does not really deter crime, which is instead a result of racism and a toxic capitalist system. 

    Biden agrees. Federal attorneys mimic the so-called George Soros city and county prosecutors who enforce the law largely according to ideological directives. 

    No prior president has managed to weaponize the Pentagon, the FBI, or the CIA in ways that have transitioned them from traditional institutions to woke avatars of social revolution. 

    No prior Democratic president has so attacked conservatives, a strict-constructionist Supreme Court, and the Republican Party. 

    So why is the Left so eager to oust Biden or at least ensure that he does not dare seek reelection in 2024? 

    Strangely, leftists do not grasp that Biden’s current record and unpopularity are due not just to his unmistakable cognitive decline. The problem is not just his often-toxic personality, or his creepy habits of trying to shake the hands of invisible people or violating the private space of younger women. 

    Instead, the Biden Administration has become an utter failure because voters detest its agendas. They recoil at $5-a-gallon gas. They feel their lives are being destroyed by 9.1 percent annual inflation and supply chain shortages. 

    The public is tired of near record annual increases in murders and other violent crime. 

    They are sickened by the tsunami of dangerous drugs pouring across the border and unvetted millions of foreign nationals entering their country without their permission. 

    They are irate that the Biden cabinet never responds to these disasters. Instead, the administration denies the crises even exist. 

    Or it blames its own self-created messes on the Russians, or Trump, or their own Democratic senators who balked at printing more trillions of dollars. 

    Now the Left is looking for a younger, more charismatic, and more glib replacement president to advance their stale unpopular agendas. 

    But since when has changing an inept messenger ever changed a disastrous message? 

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 18:30

  • 'Intense Heat And Dry Conditions' Threatening US Crops, Herds
    ‘Intense Heat And Dry Conditions’ Threatening US Crops, Herds

    At perhaps the worst possible time, scorching heat and dry conditions are jeopardizing US agriculture – threatening soybeans, corn and other crops.

    According to the Wall Street Journal, intense heat over the past week has put large portions of the United States – particularly the South and West – at risk during an important period during the Midwest crop-growing season.

    In parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and other states, the heat is exacerbating longer-running drought conditions – putting immense stress on livestock and parching pastures, and forcing ranchers to spend more on supplemental feed for cattle.

    In Iowa, which produces more corn than any other U.S. state, temperatures are forecast to hit 100 degrees in the western part of the state, according to the National Weather Service. Major livestock-producing states, including Texas and Oklahoma, are expected to see temperatures hit 104 degrees over the weekend. Some places in the region have had extremely hot and dry weather for prolonged periods. -WSJ

    Oklahoma cattle rancher Charlie Swanson says temps have exceeded 100 degrees every day this month, including a 114-degree scorcher on Tuesday. When combined with virtually no rain, the heat is ‘roasting his pastures’ – and killing the grass and forage he grows for his cattle to graze on.

    The high temps come as Oklahoma ranchers were already paying more for feed, fertilizer, fuel and other costs. Swanson’s feed costs have climbed by roughly $100 per ton vs. last year, while fertilizer is also more expensive. He recently sold 80 cows to a beef packer in Texas because he couldn’t afford to keep feeding them.

    “Everybody is cutting back on expenses if they can,” said Swanson.

    The prices that ranchers receive for their cattle have climbed roughly 15% from a year ago, according to the USDA, but producers are still struggling to break even. Prices for hay, which is widely used to feed cattle, were 56% higher in April than in 2021, according to a June report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Cattle producers are estimated to have lost money the past two months, according to a cost-and-return analysis from Iowa State University. -WSJ

    Where there’s trouble, opportunity arises. 

    Helping cattle ranchers cope with the situation is Panorama Organic Grass-Fed Meats, a division of poultry company Perdue Farms Inc., which helps ranchers in drought-stricken states connect with buyers in states that are doing ok. “For example, the company might connect a rancher in Bakersfield, Calif., who is struggling with dry weather with a producer in Nebraska looking to buy cattle.”

    “We’re the matchmaker,” said Kay Cornelius, Panorama’s general manager.

    According to industry analysts, if the heat persists across the country and this year’s corn crop can’t handle it, feed costs will march even higher, driving up input costs for livestock producers.

    Eddie Sanders, a fourth-generation corn grower in Franklin, Tenn., said he expects to harvest only roughly one-third to one-half of his corn crop this year, because of the hot and dry weather. He said he is hoping to be able to salvage his soybean crop, but if the hot weather persists into August, that too might be at risk.

    We’re burned up here,” he said. “We’re at the mercy of a rain every 10 days.” -WSJ

    And thanks to a wet spring, many Midwestern farmers got a late start planting corn and other crops. Now, it’s too dry to sustain their growth in many regions. According to the US Drought Monitor, almost 30% of US corn production and 26% of soybean production are in areas experiencing drought. As the Journal notes: “Corn is now pollinating in many parts of the grain belt, a time when the plants require the most water. Serious drought and heat stress during corn pollination can translate to yield losses of about 9% a day, said Dan Quinn, an agronomist at Purdue University and corn specialist who works with regional farmers.”

    What’s doing well right now?

    Parts of Illinois, Indiana and Iowa which have received rain recently, while the USDA’s July 18 report showed steady corn conditions – and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade have fallen around 7% over the past week. What’s more, rain has been forecast for parts of the Midwest, which should ease some crop concerns.

    According to Rick Dusek, head of country operations at Minnesota-based farmer cooperative CHS Inc., “Right now there are a lot of eyes watching North American production.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 18:00

  • "Bitcoin Will Bottom As We Get Closer To The Fed Pivot": Lawrence Lepard
    “Bitcoin Will Bottom As We Get Closer To The Fed Pivot”: Lawrence Lepard

    Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

    Friend of Fringe Finance Lawrence Lepard released his most recent investor letter a few days ago with his updated take the Fed, crypto, gold and macro.

    Larry has joined me for several interviews over the last year and I believe him to truly be one of the muted voices that the investing community would be better off for considering. He’s the type of voice that gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.

     

    Larry was kind enough to allow me to share his most recent thoughts. You can read Part 1 of this letter, released days ago, here.


    Crypto And Bitcoin

    There was probably no greater poster child for the speculative expansion of this bubble than the enormous growth in the crypto currencies and Bitcoin. From a starting point of only 50 crypto currencies back in 2013, when Bitcoin began to emerge, there are now over 20,000 crypto currencies.

    Reliable estimates suggest that the entire crypto market was $3 Trillion at its peak in November of 2021; today it is  approximately $866 Billion, or a decrease of 71%. The paper value attributed to these trading vehicles  in such a short period of time is stunning; demonstrating that when crowd psychology chases perceived  easy wealth it can go much further than expected, yet it always ends badly.

    A perfect example is Dogecoin named after a dog and started as a joke, but it caught favor with celebrities and Elon Musk and went on to achieve a peak market valuation of $87.5 Billion before collapsing 90%. Notably it still trades at a $9 Billion market cap which is $9 Billion too much, in our opinion. 

    Given the unregulated nature of crypto and the rise of many offshore exchanges, there was a lot of  leverage being used in this space, and there was also a lot of fraud. Many crypto currencies were built  on faulty premises and were nothing more than sophisticated pump and dump schemes. A notable  example is Luna/Terra which hawked an algorithmic stable coin that was designed to give investors a  20% annual yield. How they were able to generate these kinds of returns was never specifically  explained.

    Like Gold, Bitcoin and cryptos do not provide yield. Thus, for any arranged scheme to provide yield, it clearly would imply that lots of leverage was employed. In our low-rate world where money is  priced too cheaply, hucksters were bound to show up to sell to the masses.  

    The fraud that was Luna Terra coin traded at a peak market cap of $18B before a run on the bank caused the entire scam to collapse to worthlessness. This is not the only crypto related entity which has collapsed  to worthlessness – Celsius, the hedge fund 3 Arrows Capital, Voyager Digital, and Compass Mining have also collapsed. We believe there is a lot more pain to come.  

    At the heart of all of this crypto meltdown is “phantom collateral” (i.e., lenders think they have real collateral backing their loan; but alas they don’t, and often the borrower has borrowed from others using  the same phantom collateral. Yet, like in musical chairs, when the music stops and loans are called in – collateral either doesn’t exist or multiple parties have claims on the same collateral, or it was worthless  to begin with. We saw this in the 2008 housing bubble with Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO) and  CDO squared type scams. 

    As we saw in this draw down many crypto currency holders also held Bitcoin, and in a leveraged unwind  they were forced to dump their Bitcoin on the market. 


    Today’s article is not behind a paywall, because I believe its content to be too important – but if you have the means and wish to support my work, I’d love to have you as a subscriber: Subscribe now


    Bitcoin Is Not Crypto

    It is important to distinguish between Bitcoin and all other crypto currencies. We strongly oppose all  other crypto currencies, which when boiled down to it are just a bunch of middlemen trying to take their  “toll” on the highway of the blockchain/Bitcoin by playing levered, fiat games.

    We strongly believe in Bitcoin, and are what the world calls, Bitcoin maximalists.  

    Bitcoin is a unique technical invention. It is a software protocol and a network of 10s of 1000s of nodes  globally that provides a secure, immutable open ledger (i.e., records can’t be modified). On this network  flows a digital currency that is scarce and will continue to get more scarce overtime as the supply of new  coins decreases. There will only be 21 million Bitcoin in total issued (19.1 million coins have been  issued, thus far).

    This scarcity and security are obtained by using a blockchain with a proof of work  algorithm which prevents the “double spend” problem. The rules of the network are ironclad,  mathematical and could only be changed with consent of 51% of the decentralized network nodes which  are spread across the world. No human can mess with the pre-coded software formula, and economic  incentives make such a change unlikely. It is just math. Thus, Bitcoin represents, in our view, a digital  form of gold or a sound monetary medium that will be the leading form of payment and store of value in  the future. 

    Crypto currencies do not have the characteristics of Bitcoin. Most are based upon a Proof of Stake (POS) model which allows the largest holders to set and change the rules. This is a huge deal because it means  that the issuance policies of all other crypto currencies are subject to change by the people at the top of  the chain (the leading stakeholders) – meaning they are centralized, not decentralized like Bitcoin.

    Take Ethereum for example, it is controlled by a small group and the token supply issuance policy has changed 6 times during its life and counting. We do not trust or believe in any other crypto currencies as a store  of value. It is possible that useful good cryptos will emerge, but with 20,000 to choose from we have no idea which ones are likely to succeed. Furthermore, these are likely to emerge with different use cases  than secure store of value, which is where Bitcoin excels. 

    Conversely, we are witnessing consistent growth of the Bitcoin network as many are drawn to the  favorable features that we outlined above. As long as adoption and usage continue to grow, when  compared to a fixed supply, it is not hard to see what will happen to price. We think it is sad that the frauds and promotion surrounding many crypto currencies have damaged Bitcoin and scared people away  from the one true technical development which we strongly believe will succeed over the long run.  

    The schedule below shows an Elliott Wave technical analysis of Bitcoin since 2016. As we can see, there  was an impulse move which launched the coin in late 2020 and now we are in a full- fledged correction. Bitcoin has gone through this cycle several times before at smaller scale. 

    To review how we have invested in this area, we presently hold roughly 3% of the Fund in the coins and  roughly 14% of the Fund in private companies which provide services related to Bitcoin. Even after this  draw down in the price of Bitcoin, our cost basis in Bitcoin related investments is $3.9 million and they  are currently valued at $7.0 million (roughly 18% of the Fund). So we are well ahead on our Bitcoin  investments. We have been adding to our coin holdings at this level because Bitcoin has only been this  cheap compared to its 200-day moving average for 3% of the days it has existed.

    We expect the price of Bitcoin to find a bottom as we get closer to the Fed pivot. We still maintain that  it has the most asymmetric upside of any financial asset in the world. We believe that on the other side  of the crypto meltdown, Bitcoin’s strength will grow as it is seen to be the one true crypto currency which  represents an innovation and does what it claims to do. Bitcoin will no longer compete with other cryptos,  it will have won. Some regulation will be required and indeed will likely be a key catalyst to wider adoptions by institutions.  

    Monetary Chaos: Inflation or Deflation

    Ever since we pivoted the Fund in 2008 to focus on gold and silver mining stocks, and subsequently  added Bitcoin to the mix, we have been using the term “monetary chaos” to describe the world we are  living in. The Fed’s low interest rate policies and QE have destroyed true price discovery in open markets. 

     

    As the chart above shows, the Fed decision to hold interest rates at the zero bound for 7 years, when  coupled with massive QE which fueled credit growth, has created an economy that is so distorted that  nobody knows what the true value of anything is anymore. The Taylor Rule is a model developed by  economist John Taylor which adjusts the FF rate to account for inflation and the GDP output gap. In the  past, the Fed has used it to guide policy. The important take away from this chart is that in today’s  conditions, the Taylor rule suggests that the FF Rate should be almost 8%, a number which would be  devastating to the US economy given the 125% Debt to GDP level. 

    Of course, the “Everything Bubble” which occurred in all financial assets was not just driven by the Fed,  the US Government helped with its programs to spend freely to counter the COVID driven economic  downturn. The growth in US Treasury debt over the same time frame has been truly extraordinary and it  has accelerated recently.

    Looking at the chart above, it is hard for an economist or an investor to answer the question: how does  this not end badly? Our society is so leveraged and so addicted to mispriced cheap money that, if the  Fed ever decides to seriously increase the cost of capital in order to defend the integrity of the dollar, the  resulting deflationary collapse is going to rival or exceed the Great Depression (1929-1940).  

    A higher cost of capital will collapse all risk asset markets and the negative wealth effect creates a  negative feedback doom loop. There will be a mad scramble for dollars and liquidity and prices for  everything will plunge. We are seeing the early signs of that rush to dollars in the DXY, the collapse in  stock markets, housing demand softening, and used car prices correcting. This is exactly what happened  in the 1920’s and 1930’s – the last time the world witnessed the collapse of several sovereign debt  bubbles.  

    There are only two alternatives for the US: Default on the massive debt load or inflate our way out of  the mess. Historically, inflation has been the more politically palatable choice.

    The Fed’s Actions Will Work…Until Stuff Breaks

    Currently, because the inflation problem appears to be the most pressing political issue, the Fed is focused  on taming inflation via demand destruction with interest rate hikes and withdrawals of QE (QT). Let’s  face it, things were very frothy, and the Fed should’ve started this process well over a year ago. Year  over year house prices were up 20% per year. Rent prices year over year were up similarly: 17%.  Unemployment is very low and labor is pushing hard for wage increases to counter higher living costs.  The crypto market was a cornucopia of speculation and price bubbles. 

    The problem the Fed will face is that this may not work. Some of the inflation is structural and long term  in nature and will only be solved by bringing more supply capacity online. However, adding capacity  requires capital investment and they just raised the price of capital. Not what would be necessary to  encourage new investments. 

    The Fed knows that part of the inflation problem is “inflationary expectations”. That is, if people expect  inflation, they will spend more quickly thereby creating more demand and driving more inflation. We  think this is why the Fed has been so aggressive with its anti-inflation rhetoric and in slowing the y/y  money supply growth (see chart below).  

    So a deflationary impulse has been created as seen in the softening of almost all asset classes. Yet, given  the fragility of the levered global system and some of the cracks beginning to emerge (e.g., Japan,  Emerging Markets and some Credit Default Swaps), we also think that the Fed is going to be forced to  reverse course, and probably fairly quickly. As a very wise investor recently described the Fed’s  predicament: 

    “We are in a period, a temporary period, that will probably last 6 to 12 months of a tightening  in monetary policy. But that will be the correction in the trend. That tightness will produce  weakness in markets and the economy, to be followed by another round of easing.” 

    – Ray Dalio, June 2022

    Recall that the Fed has two formal mandates (full employment and price stability) and one informal  mandate (functioning financial markets). Powell has referred to this third shadow mandate multiple times  including during the March 2020 COVID crisis when the US Treasury bond market went no bid.  Whereupon he instituted extensive monetary stimulus with a “whatever it takes” policy to keep the  Treasury and other markets functioning. 

    We believe that this short-term deflationary impulse / market correction will be short-lived. It is only a  matter of time until something major breaks in the financial markets. As aggressively as the Fed has  tightened, it will likely have to stimulate just as aggressively when something breaks. This will lead to  even greater monetary debasement.  

    As one of the wags on Twitter likes to say, you cannot taper a ponzi. In our view, the current deflation  is moving quickly, and this reversal will have to happen faster than the market currently anticipates.  There are multiple signs that the new “tough guy” Fed policy is creating problems which will force them  to pivot. We have seen this movie before from the Fed when QT failed, and a Fed U-Turn was required  as the chart below shows. 

    As the brilliant macro analyst, Luke Gromen, describes it, the Fed thinks they are operating with a dial,  but in reality, they have more of a nuclear reactor on/off switch. As Luke stated recently: 

    “Given that severe bond (and equity) market dysfunction has now begun, before the Fed even  officially begins QT, the Fed is left with only a choice of how they want to lose their credibility: 

    1. Via the stock and bond market crashing before the Fed even starts QT, or; 

    2. By the Fed stopping tightening and then loosening policy into an inflation spike.”


    About Larry Lepard

    Larry manages the EMA GARP Fund, a Boston based investment management firm. Their strategy is focused on providing “Monetary Debasement Insurance”. He has 38 years experience and an MBA from Harvard Business School. On Twitter he is @LawrenceLepard Managing Partner and, via email, he is llepard@ema2.com


    Disclaimer: QTR is long various gold and silver miners and have both long and short exposure to the market through equities and derivatives. I have no position in Larry’s funds. Larry is a subscriber to Fringe Finance and has been on my podcast. The excerpts from Larry’s letter, above, shall not be construed as an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to sell, any securities or services. Any such offering may only be made at the time a qualified investor receives from EMA formal materials describing an offering plus related subscription documentation. There is no guarantee the Fund’s investment strategy will be successful. Investing involves risk, and an investment in the Fund could lose money. The strategy is also subject to the following risks: Currency Risk, Non-US Investment Risks, Issuer Specific Risk.

    QTR’s Fringe Finance is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber: Subscribe now

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 17:30

  • WHO's Tedros Overrules Own Committee To Declare Monkeypox "Global Emergency"
    WHO’s Tedros Overrules Own Committee To Declare Monkeypox “Global Emergency”

    One day after the global case count top 16,000 and the US records its first cases involving children, WHO Director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared the global spread of monkeypox a ‘Public Health Emergency of International Concern’, one level below the pandemic status assigned to COVID-19.

    There are now more than 16,000 cases of monkeypox outside Africa, roughly five times the number when the advisers met in June and declined to formally declare it a public health emergency, the New York Times reports.

    Source

    Tedros said after a discussion with the WHO’s emergency committee:

    “We have an outbreak that has spread around the world rapidly, through new modes of transmission, about which we understand too little,” pointing out that cases are increasingly occurring countries where it is traditionally not found, as well as the growing risk to human health, Tedros added that “for all of these reasons, I have decided that the global monkeypox outbreak represents a public health emergency of international concern.”

    The first European cases occurred almost exclusively in gay and bisexual men, with health officials noting that lesions were appearing on patients’ genitals. While it is unclear whether the current outbreak is spreading solely through sexual contact, Tedros stated that “this is an outbreak that is concentrated among men who have sex with men, especially those with multiple sexual partners.”

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    Both cases involving children in the US “are traced back to individuals who come from the…gay men’s community,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky told the Washington Post, although she did not clarify whether these children caught the disease sexually or non-sexually.

    At least five children in Europe have also been infected.

    Tedros’ decision also comes shortly after the first major peer-reviewed study of monkeypox infections was released, confirming, as Caden Pearson reports, that the virus is primarily being transmitted through the sexual activity of gay and bisexual men in the United States and around the world.

    The Journal of New England Medicine on Thursday published a study that looked at monkeypox infection across 16 countries between April and June, when cases began to emerge in countries outside of Africa.

    The study reported on 528 infections diagnosed between April 27 and June 24, of which 98 percent were in gay or bisexual men with a median age of 38. Of these cases, 95 percent of the infections were suspected to have been transmitted through sexual activity—41 percent also had HIV.

    Tedros called on groups representing gay men to “adopt measures that protect both the health, human rights and dignity of affected communities,” although the WHO chief stopped short of calling on these men to abstain from sexual activity.

    An uptick in recent US cases suggests transmission occurred at the tail end of Pride Month in late June and early July, based on the study finding that incubation is between three and 20 days (usually seven days).

    CDC officials were hesitant to recommend canceling marquee US LGBT events, similar to the super-spreading events in Europe that occurred the month prior.

    LGBT event organizers were also treading carefully in the spring, wanting to avoid stigmatizing the LGBT community. US health officials opted instead to boost targeted messaging to warn gay and bisexual men, who were deemed most at risk.

    The director-general noted that the WHO’s Emergency Committee under the International Health Regulation was “unable to reach a consensus” on whether to make the declaration itself (he actually over-ruled the committee which voted 9 to 6 against the declaration), compelling Tedros to make the declaration on his own. 

    “[W]ith the tools we have right now, we can stop transmission and bring this outbreak under control,” he said. 

    It appears the next ‘thing to fear’ is here.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 17:00

  • Biden Approves 16th Weapons Transfer To Ukraine – Total Security Aid Now Over $8BN
    Biden Approves 16th Weapons Transfer To Ukraine – Total Security Aid Now Over $8BN

    Authored by Kyle Anzalone via AntiWar.com,

    The White House announced a $270 million weapons package Kiev on Friday. The latest transfer will send four additional High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS and drones to Ukraine.

    The additional four HIMARS brings the total number the US has committed to sending to Ukraine to 16. Commander of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley said the other 12 HIMARS have reached Ukraine and have not been destroyed by Russia. The US has provided Ukraine with rockets that can be fired 50 miles by the rocket systems.

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    John Kirby, communications director for the National Security Council, announced the package on Friday. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters on Wednesday the US would be sending the additional HIMARS.

    The package also includes 36,000 rounds of artillery ammunition for howitzers and 560 Phoenix Ghost tactical drones. The latest transfer is the 17th approved by the White House since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. The Biden administration has now committed over $8 billion in weapons to Kiev’s fight.

    Russia has been critical of arms assistance to Ukraine from the US and its allies. The HIMARS have drawn particular ire from the Kremlin because of the platform’s long range. Ukrainian officials have recently suggested the HIMARS could be used in an offensive to retake the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014.

    Last week, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the Kremlin had decided to take more Ukrainian territory because of the advanced weapons the West sent to Kiev.

    Image: US Marine Corps

    “That means the geographical tasks will extend still further from the current line. We cannot allow the part of Ukraine that Zelensky will control or whoever replaces him to have weapons that will pose a direct threat to our territory and the territory of those republics that have declared their independence,” he said.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 16:30

  • Goldman Desk: We Now Have An Answer Whether "Long-Only" Demand Would Return After Barrage Of Soft Earnings
    Goldman Desk: We Now Have An Answer Whether “Long-Only” Demand Would Return After Barrage Of Soft Earnings

    Back on Thursday, we wrote that according to the Goldman flow desk, “most clients were hating this rally“, sentiment which Nomura’s Charlie McElligott picked up on that same day when he wrote that the risk over the near term is a “further pile-on to the crowd who has expected another surge lower in stocks, instead squeezing their shorts and accelerating the enormous Systematic buying already going through as CTAs cover and flip long.”

    We also wrote that – for at least a few hours – it appeared that the most steadfast bears who are recently capitulated bulls, and who according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey, are now the most pessimistic on record – are starting to capitulate yet again, this time calling a bottom to stocks, and are starting to buy. Indeed, as Goldman flow trader John Flood wrote in in his Thursday end of day wrap, “some noteworthy long-only clients have now started to passively buy on our desk throughout the day (velocity picked up this afternoon as mkt moved higher)” adding that “executed flow across US equities franchise had +338bp buy skew vs 30d avg of -30bp sell skew. L/Os buy skew +9.8% was highest here since since 6/30.”

    That said, before concluding that this is more than just another bear market rally, Flood wrote that “it will be interesting to see if this “long-only” momentum will sustain into Friday post “a slew of relatively disappointing earnings” post close, from companies such as SNAP, COF, CRSR, SAM, SIVB, STX.

    Well, fast forward to Friday when despite strong earnings from American Express, the post-SNAP disappointment was just too great and risk sentiment collapsed. And so, picking up on his rhetorical question from Thursday, Goldman’s Flood – who had said that “it will be interesting to see if this “long-only” momentum will sustain post the barrage of poor earnings from SNAP, COF, CRSR, SAM, SIVB, STX – wrote in his Friday end of day wrap that he had an answer: “As of close today answer ending up being a hard no RE if the L/O demand would come back post a sleeve of soft earnings.”

    But while this week ended inconclusively, it is “next week that when will certainly find out where the bodies lie as 50% of S&P’s mkt cap reporting paired with FOMC likely forces active managers to show their hands.”

    Here are a few other points, courtesy of Goldman’s Prime Brokerage, which show that most hedge funds continue to dump risk into this “most unloved” rally:

    • Avg U.S. Fundamental HF +371bps on the week bringing ytd performance to -15.71%. Fundamental L/S Gross leverage +2.0 pts to 172% (26th percentile 1-year) and Net leverage +3.2 pts to 49% (15th percentile 1-year).
    • The Prime book was net bought for the 1st time in 4 weeks (+0.6 SDs 1-year), though flows were definitively risk-off with short covers outpacing long sales 2.3 to 1 – this week’s $ short covers were the largest since Dec ’21. Macro Products (Index and ETF combined) were net bought led by short covers, while Single Stocks were net sold for a 3rd straight week driven by long sales.
    • Unloved rally in to today as hedge funds covered ETF shorts and unwound Single Stock risk at the fastest pace since March. US-listed ETF shorts were net covered for 8 straight days, while US Single Stocks were net sold for 7 straight days driven by long sales and to a lesser extent short covers.
    • Managers remain highly cautious on the TMT mega caps and further reduced exposures heading into earnings next week. The current FAAMG Net exposure (as % of the overall Prime book) ranks in the 7th percentile vs. the past year and in the 3rd percentile vs. the past five years.

    Finally, there are two key factors that can change the risk dynamic next week: the return of buybacks, and acceleration of buying from CTAs. Here is Flood again:

    • Corporates have been the most consistent buyer of the US stock market this year. $1.3T in authorizations for this year ($1.1T of which we think will be executed…the most ever). That being said our buyback desk has been relatively quiet the last 2 weeks as corps firmly in blackout period. Our model shows blackout period ending post close today. AKA expect corp bid to return to the mkt next week.
    • CTAs: have $5b of S&P to buy per week at these levels. North of 4070 (long term momentum) this demand essentially doubles.

    More in the full note available to pro subscribers.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 16:00

  • Nearly 30% Of Gen Z Living Permanently With Parents Amid Inflation Squeeze
    Nearly 30% Of Gen Z Living Permanently With Parents Amid Inflation Squeeze

    Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

    Amid surging rental prices, nearly 30 percent of Americans born in the late 1990s and early 2000s still live at home with their parents or relatives, according to a new survey.

    The survey was conducted by Qualtrics on behalf of Credit Karma, from June 10 to June 15, among 1,022 U.S. adults between the ages of 18 and 25.

    It found that 29 percent of those surveyed who are in the Gen Z age range—between 18 and 25—are living at home with parents or other relatives, and described this as a long-term housing solution as the cost of living across the country soars.

    Another 27 percent said they live with a romantic partner, and just 13 percent live in a household with one or more roommates.

    The survey comes as rental prices across the country have surged amid increased inflation, particularly in big cities like New York and Los Angeles, leaving many of those in the younger generation forced to reassess their living circumstances and tighten their belts.

    June’s inflation figures showed that the rent index rose 0.8 percent over the month, the largest monthly increase since April 1986.

    Of those surveyed who have successfully moved out of their family home, 32 percent said half of their monthly income goes toward rent or a mortgage, while 27 percent said they spend a quarter of their monthly income on housing and another 21 percent said they spend a third of their income on paying for their home.

    Overall, 61 percent of those surveyed said they have a household income of $50,000 or less.

    Soaring Inflation Impacting Saving

    However, the average monthly housing cost for those surveyed was around $1,060, lower than the national average of $1,295.

    A separate report by Zumper National, in June, found that U.S. rental prices are beginning to decline across several American cities this summer following an upward trend this past year.

    Still, with the 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) hitting 9.1 percent in June (pdf), “zoomers” (as the Gen Z cohort is called) are still left unable to put aside much in terms of savings, according to the study, which found that 28 percent of respondents are not able to save right now.

    More than half of those who are unable to save money said that this is due to inflation, while 47 percent said this is because they are not earning enough and 40 percent said that inflation is outpacing their earned income.

    “Right now, many zoomers, especially recent graduates, are attempting to make their first real transition into adulthood. For some that includes starting their first job or moving to a new city and for others that means simply moving out of their family home,” said Colleen McCreary, consumer financial advocate at Credit Karma.

    McCreary added that these milestones are being hampered by increased costs and the current volatile economy, which she said is “making it harder than ever for young people to become financially independent.”

    While the White House has admitted that inflation is “unacceptably high,” Biden administration officials are still optimistic that an impending recession is not on the horizon.

    White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein, on Sunday, pointed to strong consumer spending, which he said is bolstering the economy.

    However, the latest survey published by Credit Karma showed that 40 percent of Gen Z respondents are relying on credit cards and other forms of credit to pay for their purchases due to increased inflation.

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 15:30

  • Russia Informs Turkey It Had "Nothing To Do" With Odessa Port Attack
    Russia Informs Turkey It Had “Nothing To Do” With Odessa Port Attack

    Update(1524ET)While the White House and European allies, along with the Ukrainian government, were lock-step in condemning as outrageous a series of reported Russian airstrikes on the port of Odesa the morning after the grain export deal was signed in Istanbul, the Kremlin is apparently denying it was behind the attack:

    Turkey’s defense minister said on Saturday that Russian officials had told Ankara that Moscow had “nothing to do” with strikes on Ukraine’s Odesa port.

    “In our contact with Russia, the Russians told us that they had absolutely nothing to do with this attack and that they were examining the issue very closely and in detail,” Defence Minister Hulusai Akar said in a statement.

    “The fact that such an incident took place right after the agreement we made yesterday really worried us,” he added.

    Ukraine for its part, has said it is still preparing agricultural exports despite the threat of more strikes. Key infrastructure at Odesa port was not damaged, according to local officials.

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    The EU joined the US in blaming Russia and condemning the attack, with Ukraine’s President Zelensky accusing Moscow of deliberately trying to thwart the deal it just signed.

    * * *

    UN Secretary-General António Guterres has condemned a fresh missile attack on the key Ukrainian port of Odessa on Saturday, which came a mere hours after a major UN-brokered Russia-Ukraine deal was reached to unblock Ukrainian grain export transit. Western media and officials are widely calling it a continued deliberate attack on Ukraine’s vital grain export infrastructure by Russia, despite the signed breakthrough agreement in Istanbul the evening prior.

    “The secretary-general unequivocally condemns reported strikes today in the Ukrainian port of Odesa,” Farhan Haq, deputy spokesman for U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said following the strikes, some of which were captured on video…

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    The UN statement, however, stopped short of assigning blame or that the attack violated the grain export deal agreed to by Russia. 

    The enemy attacked the Odesa sea trade port with Kalibr cruise missiles; 2 missiles were shot down by air defense forces; 2 hit the infrastructure of the port,” the Operational Command South wrote on Telegram on Saturday.

    America’s ambassador to Kiev slammed the attacks as “outrageous” and demanded that Russia be held to account…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The UN’s Haq continued, “Yesterday, all parties made clear commitments on the global stage to ensure the safe movement of Ukrainian grain and related products to global markets,adding that “These products are desperately needed to address the global food crisis and ease the suffering of millions of people in need around the globe. Full implementation by the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and Türkiye is imperative.”

    And The New York Times weighed in on whether this will collapse the deal even before it gets off the ground: “Russia may not have technically violated the deal, since it did not pledge to avoid attacking the parts of the Ukrainian ports that are not directly used for the grain exports, according to a senior U.N. official.”

    The two sides inked what Kiev was eager to stress were separate but “mirror” agreements with the UN. The Ukrainian government has said will not negotiate directly with the Russian side until all its national territory is returned. There were not even photo ops involving Russian and Ukrainian officials in the same vicinity in the same room.

    Friday’s grain deal signing ceremony, via EPA-EFE

    UN Secretary General António Guterres and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were present for the finalized deal at Istanbul’s lavish Dolmabahce Palace, with Erdogan saying the landmark deal would “hopefully revive the path to peace.”

    Guterres said, “Today, there is a beacon on the Black Sea — a beacon of hope, a beacon of possibility, a beacon of relief” – as over 20 million tons of grain which especially a number of Mideast and African nations are heavily reliant upon are expected to be released.

    Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov later in the day said there was not significant damage from the Russian strikes, and announced, “We continue technical preparations for the launch of exports of agricultural products from our ports.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 15:24

  • Fish Tank: Mark Cuban Has Posted A Combined Net Loss On His 80+ Shark Tank Investments
    Fish Tank: Mark Cuban Has Posted A Combined Net Loss On His 80+ Shark Tank Investments

    World famous “shark” Mark Cuban has admitted this month that across his more than 80 investments on the hit show “Shark Tank”, he has posted a net loss. 

    Cuban has been on the show for more than a decade, but admitted last week that his return from the $20 million he’s invested in 85 startups has “taken a net loss”, according to a CNBC writeup

    “I’ve gotten beat,” Cuban admitted. He called his worst investment deal the Breathometer, which was supposed to be “the world’s first smartphone breathalyzer.”

    The inventor, Charles Michael Yim, was able to secure investments from all five sharks, who valued the company at $3.3 million. Yim claimed to have created a smartphone attachment that could act as a breathalyzer. 

    But instead of working, Yim would be jetsetting and doing Fyre Festival-style “networking” across the globe, Cuban said. The company also ran into trouble when the FTC alleged in 2017 that it misled customers about its ability to accurately measure BAC. 

    “It was a great product. But, the guy – Charles – I’d look at his Instagram and he’d be in Bora Bora … Two weeks later, he’d been in [Las] Vegas partying, and then he’d be on Necker Island with Richard Branson. I’d text him, like ‘What the f— are you doing? You’re supposed to be working,’” Cuban said on the podcast. 

    “Next thing you know, all of the money’s gone.”

    Cuban lamented: “That was my biggest beating.”

    Tyler Durden
    Sat, 07/23/2022 – 15:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 23rd July 2022

  • Escobar: The Power Troika Trumps Biden In West Asia
    Escobar: The Power Troika Trumps Biden In West Asia

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

    The presidents of Russia, Iran, and Turkey convened to discuss critical issues pertaining to West Asia, with the illegal US occupation of Syria a key talking point.

    Oil and gas, wheat and grains, missiles and drones – the hottest topics in global geopolitics today – were all on the agenda in Tehran this week.

    The Tehran summit uniting Iran-Russia-Turkey was a fascinating affair in more ways than one. Ostensibly about the Astana peace process in Syria, launched in 2017, the summit joint statement duly noted that Iran, Russia and (recently rebranded) Turkiye will continue, “cooperating to eliminate terrorists” in Syria and “won’t accept new facts in Syria in the name of defeating terrorism.”

    That’s a wholesale rejection of the “war on terror” exceptionalist unipolarity that once ruled West Asia.

    Standing up to the global sheriff

    Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his own speech, was even more explicit. He stressed “specific steps to promote the intra-Syrian inclusive political dialogue” and most of called a spade a spade: “The western states led by the US are strongly encouraging separatist sentiment in some areas of the country and plundering its natural resources with a view to ultimately pulling the Syrian state apart.”

    So there will be “extra steps in our trilateral format” aimed at “stabilizing the situation in those areas” and crucially, “returning control to the legitimate government of Syria.” For better or for worse, the days of imperial plunder will be over.

    The bilateral meetings on the summit’s sidelines – Putin/Raisi and Putin/Erdogan – were even more intriguing. Context is key here: the Tehran gathering took place after Putin’s visit to Turkmenistan in late June for the 6th Caspian summit, where all the littoral nations, Iran included, were present, and after Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s travels in Algeria, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, where he met all his Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) counterparts.

    Moscow’s moment

    So we see Russian diplomacy carefully weaving its geopolitical tapestry from West Asia to Central Asia – with everybody and his neighbor eager to talk and to listen to Moscow. As it stands, the Russia-Turkey entente cordiale tends to lean towards conflict management, and is strong on trade relations. Iran-Russia is a completely different ball game: much more of a strategic partnership.

    So it’s hardly a coincidence that the National Oil Company of Iran (NIOC), timed to the Tehran summit, announced the signing of a $40 billion strategic cooperation agreement with Russia’s Gazprom. That’s the largest foreign investment in the history of Iran’s energy industry – badly needed since the early 2000s. Seven deals worth $4 billion apply to the development of oil fields; others focus on the construction of new export gas pipelines and LNG projects.

    Kremlin advisor Yury Ushakov deliciously leaked that Putin and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in their private meeting, “discussed conceptual issues.” Translation: he means grand strategy, as in the evolving, complex process of Eurasia integration, in which the three key nodes are Russia, Iran and China, now intensifying their interconnection. The Russia-Iran strategic partnership largely mirrors the key points of the China-Iran strategic partnership.

    Iran says ‘no’ to NATO

    Khamenei, on NATO, did tell it like it is: “If the road is open for NATO, then the organization sees no borders. If it had not been stopped in Ukraine, then after a while the alliance would have started a war under the pretext of Crimea.”

    There were no leaks on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) impasse between the US and Iran – but it’s clear, based on the recent negotiations in Vienna, that Moscow will not interfere with Tehran’s nuclear decisions. Not only are Tehran-Moscow-Beijing fully aware of who’s preventing the JCPOA from getting back on track, they also see how this counter-productive stalling process prevents the collective west from badly needed access to Iranian oil.

    Then there’s the weapons front. Iran is one of the world’s leaders in drone production: Pelican, Arash, Homa, Chamrosh, Jubin, Ababil, Bavar, recon drones, attack drones, even kamikaze drones, cheap and effective, mostly deployed from naval platforms in West Asia.

    Tehran’s official position is not to supply weapons to nations at war – which would in principle invalidate dodgy US “intel” on their supply to Russia in Ukraine. Yet that could always happen under the radar, considering that Tehran is very much interested in buying Russian aerial defense systems and state of the art fighter jets. After the end of the UN Security Council-enforced embargo, Russia can sell whatever conventional weapons to Iran it sees fit.

    Russian military analysts are fascinated by the conclusions Iranians reached when it was established they would stand no chance against a NATO armada; essentially they bet on pro-level guerrilla war (a lesson learned from Afghanistan). In Syria, Iraq and Yemen they deployed trainers to guide villagers in their fight against Salafi-jihadis; produced tens of thousands of large-caliber sniper rifles, ATGMs, and thermals; and of course perfected their drone assembly lines (with excellent cameras to surveil US positions).

    Not to mention that simultaneously the Iranians were building quite capable long-range missiles. No wonder Russian military analysts estimate there’s much to learn tactically from the Iranians – and not only on the drone front.

    The Putin-Sultan ballet

    Now to the Putin-Erdogan get together – always an attention-grabbing geopolitical ballet, especially considering the Sultan has not yet decided to hop on the Eurasia integration high-speed train.

    Putin diplomatically “expressed gratitude” for the discussions on food and grain issues, while reiterating that “not all issues on the export of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports are resolved, but progress is made.”

    Putin was referring to Turkiye’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, who earlier this week assured that setting up an operations center in Istanbul, establishing joint controls at the port exit and arrival points, and carefully monitoring the navigational safety on the transfer routes are issues that may be solved in the next few days.

    Apparently Putin-Erdogan also discussed Nagorno-Karabakh (no details).

    What a few leaks certainly did not reveal is that on Syria, for all practical purposes, the situation is blocked. That favors Russia – whose main priority as it stands is Donbass. Wily Erdogan knows it – and that’s why he may have tried to extract some “concessions” on “the Kurdish question” and Nagorno-Karabakh. Whatever Putin, Russia’s Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev may really think about Erdogan, they certainly evaluate how priceless is to cultivate such an erratic partner capable of driving the collective west totally bonkers.

    Istanbul this summer has been turned into a sort of Third Rome, at least for expelled-from-Europe Russian tourists: they are everywhere. Yet the most crucial geoeconomic development these past few months is that the western-provoked collapse of trade/supply lines along the borders between Russia and the EU – from the Baltic to the Black Sea – finally highlighted the wisdom and economic sense of the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INTSC): a major Russia-Iran-India geopolitical and geoeconomic integration success.

    When Moscow talks to Kiev, it talks via Istanbul. NATO, as the Global South well knows, does not do diplomacy. So any possibility of dialogue between Russians and a few educated westerners takes place in Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and the UAE. West Asia as well as the Caucasus, incidentally, did not subscribe to the western sanctions hysteria against Russia.

    Say farewell to the ‘teleprompter guy’

    Now compare all of the above with the recent visit to the region by the so-called “leader of the free world,” who merrily alternates between shaking hands with invisible people to reading – literally – whatever is scrolling on a teleprompter. We’re talking of US President Joe Biden, of course.

    Fact: Biden threatened Iran with military strikes and as a mere supplicant, begged the Saudis to pump more oil to offset the “turbulence” in the global energy markets caused by the collective west’s sanction hysteria. Context: the glaring absence of any vision or anything even resembling a draft of foreign policy plan for West Asia.

    So oil prices duly jumped upward after Biden’s trip: Brent crude rose more than four percent to $105 a barrel, bringing prices back to above $100 after a lull of several months.

    The heart of the matter is that if OPEC or OPEC+ (which includes Russia) ever decide to increase their oil supplies, they will do it based on their internal deliberations, and not under exceptionalist pressure.

    As for the imperial threat of military strikes on Iran, it qualifies as pure dementia. The whole Persian Gulf – not to mention the whole of West Asia – knows that were US/Israel to attack Iran, fierce retaliation would simply evaporate with the region’s energy production, with apocalyptic consequences including the collapse of trillions of dollars in derivatives.

    Biden then had the gall to say, “We have made progress in strengthening our relations with the Gulf states. We will not leave a vacuum for Russia and China to fill in the Middle East”.

    Well, in real life it is the “indispensable nation” that has self-morphed into a vacuum. Only bought-and-paid for Arab vassals – most of them monarchs – believe in the building of an “Arab NATO” (copyright Jordan’s King Abdullah) to take on Iran. Russia and China are already all over the place in West Asia and beyond.

    De-Dollarization, not just Eurasian integration

    It’s not only the new logistical corridor from Moscow and St. Petersburg to Astrakhan and then, via the Caspian, to Enzeli in Iran and on to Mumbai that is shaking things up. It’s about increasing bilateral trade that bypasses the US dollar. It’s about BRICS+, which Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are dying to be part of. It’s about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which formally accepts Iran as a full member this coming September (and soon Belarus as well). It’s about BRICS+, the SCO, China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) interconnected in their path towards a Greater Eurasia Partnership.

    West Asia may still harbor a small collection of imperial vassals with zero sovereignty who depend on the west’s financial and military ‘assistance,’ but that’s the past. The future is now – with Top Three BRICS (Russia, India, China) slowly but surely coordinating their overlapping strategies across West Asia, with Iran involved in all of them.

    And then there’s the Big Global Picture: whatever the circumvolutions and silly schemes of the US-concocted “oil price cap” variety, the fact is that Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela – the top powerful energy-producing nations – are absolutely in sync: on Russia, on the collective west, and on the needs of a real multipolar world.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 23:40

  • US Army Embraces "EV Future" With New Electric Hummer
    US Army Embraces “EV Future” With New Electric Hummer

    On Earth Day (Apr. 22), President Biden stated, “every vehicle in the United States military is going to be climate-friendly.” He said, “we’re spending billions of dollars to do it.” 

    Months later, the U.S. Army bought a 2022 Hummer EV pickup from General Motors’ subsidiary GM Defense, Detroit Free Press reported.

    “The U.S. Army has bought one Hummer through GM Defense,” said Sonia Taylor, GM Defense spokeswoman. She wouldn’t reveal how much the Army paid but said the Hummer retails for approximately $108,700. 

    Taylor said that selling the Hummer is a ‘stepping stone’ to getting the service electrified. She added:

    “We are trying to help defense and government partners transition to an E.V. future, so this is one of the steps.

    “Our industry moves real slow. Slower than the commercial market. But this is a positive step in that direction.”

    The Army will receive the Hummer “no later than Aug. 31,” Taylor said, adding she doesn’t know what vehicle testing the service will conduct and where. 

    Detroit Free Press points out the Army’s purchase description summarized in its bid: 

    “The purpose of this requirement is to procure a new light to heavy duty Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) or series-hybrid electric wheeled vehicle, for Government analysis and demonstration.”

    Even though GM Defense recently rolled out a prototype eLRV, or electric Light Reconnaissance Vehicle, the Army appears to be receiving the civilian model (for now). 

    Biden’s future “climate-friendly” military could be fraught with sacrifices, including diminishing warfighting capabilities, considering battlefields don’t have convenient charging stations. It’s possible EVs could be used in nontactical fleets. 

    The Army’s going to have fun testing the new Hummer EV. It has more than 1,000 horsepower, and 11,500 pound-feet of wheel torque, allowing it to achieve 0-60 mph in 3 seconds. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 23:20

  • Digital Authoritarianism: AI Surveillance Signals The Death Of Privacy
    Digital Authoritarianism: AI Surveillance Signals The Death Of Privacy

    Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “There are no private lives. This a most important aspect of modern life. One of the biggest transformations we have seen in our society is the diminution of the sphere of the private. We must reasonably now all regard the fact that there are no secrets and nothing is private. Everything is public.” 

    – Philip K. Dick

    Nothing is private.

    We teeter on the cusp of a cultural, technological and societal revolution the likes of which have never been seen before.

    While the political Left and Right continue to make abortion the face of the debate over the right to privacy in America, the government and its corporate partners, aided by rapidly advancing technology, are reshaping the world into one in which there is no privacy at all.

    Nothing that was once private is protected.

    We have not even begun to register the fallout from the tsunami bearing down upon us in the form of AI (artificial intelligence) surveillance, and yet it is already re-orienting our world into one in which freedom is almost unrecognizable.

    AI surveillance harnesses the power of artificial intelligence and widespread surveillance technology to do what the police state lacks the manpower and resources to do efficiently or effectively: be everywhere, watch everyone and everything, monitor, identify, catalogue, cross-check, cross-reference, and collude.

    Everything that was once private is now up for grabs to the right buyer.

    Governments and corporations alike have heedlessly adopted AI surveillance technologies without any care or concern for their long-term impact on the rights of the citizenry.

    As a special report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace warns, “A growing number of states are deploying advanced AI surveillance tools to monitor, track, and surveil citizens to accomplish a range of policy objectives—some lawful, others that violate human rights, and many of which fall into a murky middle ground.”

    Indeed, with every new AI surveillance technology that is adopted and deployed without any regard for privacy, Fourth Amendment rights and due process, the rights of the citizenry are being marginalized, undermined and eviscerated.

    Cue the rise of digital authoritarianism.

    Digital authoritarianism, as the Center for Strategic and International Studies cautions, involves the use of information technology to surveil, repress, and manipulate the populace, endangering human rights and civil liberties, and co-opting and corrupting the foundational principles of democratic and open societies, “including freedom of movement, the right to speak freely and express political dissent, and the right to personal privacy, online and off.”

    The seeds of digital authoritarianism were planted in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, with the passage of the USA Patriot Act. A massive 342-page wish list of expanded powers for the FBI and CIA, the Patriot Act justified broader domestic surveillance, the logic being that if government agents knew more about each American, they could distinguish the terrorists from law-abiding citizens.

    It sounded the death knell for the freedoms enshrined in the Bill of Rights, especially the Fourth Amendment, and normalized the government’s mass surveillance powers.

    Writing for the New York Times, Jeffrey Rosen observed that “before Sept. 11, the idea that Americans would voluntarily agree to live their lives under the gaze of a network of biometric surveillance cameras, peering at them in government buildings, shopping malls, subways and stadiums, would have seemed unthinkable, a dystopian fantasy of a society that had surrendered privacy and anonymity.”

    Who could have predicted that 50 years after George Orwell typed the final words to his dystopian novel 1984, “He loved Big Brother,” we would come to love Big Brother.

    Yet that is exactly what has come to pass.

    After 9/11, Rosen found that “people were happy to give up privacy without experiencing a corresponding increase in security. More concerned about feeling safe than actually being safe, they demanded the construction of vast technological architectures of surveillance even though the most empirical studies suggested that the proliferation of surveillance cameras had ‘no effect on violent crime’ or terrorism.”

    In the decades following 9/11, a massive security-industrial complex arose that was fixated on militarization, surveillance, and repression.

    Surveillance is the key.

    We’re being watched everywhere we go. Speed cameras. Red light cameras. Police body cameras. Cameras on public transportation. Cameras in stores. Cameras on public utility poles. Cameras in cars. Cameras in hospitals and schools. Cameras in airports.

    We’re being recorded at least 50 times a day.

    It’s estimated that there are upwards of 85 million surveillance cameras in the U.S. alone, second only to China.

    On any given day, the average American going about his daily business is monitored, surveilled, spied on and tracked in more than 20 different ways by both government and corporate eyes and ears.

    Beware of what you say, what you read, what you write, where you go, and with whom you communicate, because it will all be recorded, stored and used against you eventually, at a time and place of the government’s choosing.

    Yet it’s not just what we say, where we go and what we buy that is being tracked.

    We’re being surveilled right down to our genes, thanks to a potent combination of hardware, software and data collection that scans our biometrics—our faces, irises, voices, genetics, microbiomes, scent, gait, heartbeat, breathing, behaviors—runs them through computer programs that can break the data down into unique “identifiers,” and then offers them up to the government and its corporate allies for their respective uses.

    As one AI surveillance advocate proclaimed, “Surveillance is no longer only a watchful eye, but a predictive one as well.” For instance, Emotion AI, an emerging technology that is gaining in popularity, uses facial recognition technology “to analyze expressions based on a person’s faceprint to detect their internal emotions or feelings, motivations and attitudes.” China claims its AI surveillance can already read facial expressions and brain waves in order to determine the extent to which members of the public are grateful, obedient and willing to comply with the Communist Party.

    This is the slippery slope that leads to the thought police.

    The technology is already being used “by border guards to detect threats at border checkpoints, as an aid for detection and diagnosis of patients for mood disorders, to monitor classrooms for boredom or disruption, and to monitor human behavior during video calls.”

    For all intents and purposes, we now have a fourth branch of government: the surveillance state.

    This fourth branch came into being without any electoral mandate or constitutional referendum, and yet it possesses superpowers, above and beyond those of any other government agency save the military. It is all-knowing, all-seeing and all-powerful. It operates beyond the reach of the president, Congress and the courts, and it marches in lockstep with the corporate elite who really call the shots in Washington, DC.

    The government’s “technotyranny” surveillance apparatus has become so entrenched and entangled with its police state apparatus that it’s hard to know anymore where law enforcement ends and surveillance begins.

    The short answer: they have become one and the same entity. The police state has passed the baton to the surveillance state, which has shifted into high gear with the help of artificial intelligence technologies. The COVID-19 pandemic helped to further centralize digital power in the hands of the government at the expense of the citizenry’s privacy rights.

    “From cameras that identify the faces of passersby to algorithms that keep tabs on public sentiment online, artificial intelligence (AI)-powered tools are opening new frontiers in state surveillance around the world.” So begins the Carnegie Endowment’s report on AI surveillance note.

    “Law enforcement, national security, criminal justice, and border management organizations in every region are relying on these technologies—which use statistical pattern recognition, machine learning, and big data analytics—to monitor citizens.”

    In the hands of tyrants and benevolent dictators alike, AI surveillance is the ultimate means of repression and control, especially through the use of smart city/safe city platforms, facial recognition systems, and predictive policing. These technologies are also being used by violent extremist groups, as well as sex, child, drug, and arms traffickers for their own nefarious purposes.

    China, the role model for our dystopian future, has been a major force in deploying AI surveillance on its own citizens, especially by way of its social credit systems, which it employs to identify, track and segregate its “good” citizens from the “bad.”

    Social media credit scores assigned to Chinese individuals and businesses categorize them on whether or not they are worthy of being part of society. A real-name system—which requires people to use government-issued ID cards to buy mobile sims, obtain social media accounts, take a train, board a plane, or even buy groceries—coupled with social media credit scores ensures that those blacklisted as “unworthy” are banned from accessing financial markets, buying real estate or travelling by air or train. Among the activities that can get you labeled unworthy are taking reserved seats on trains or causing trouble in hospitals.

    In much the same way that Chinese products have infiltrated almost every market worldwide and altered consumer dynamics, China is now exporting its “authoritarian tech” to governments worldwide ostensibly in an effort to spread its brand of totalitarianism worldwide. In fact, both China and the United States have led the way in supplying the rest of the world with AI surveillance, sometimes at a subsidized rate.

    This is how totalitarianism conquers the world.

    While countries with authoritarian regimes have been eager to adopt AI surveillance, as the Carnegie Endowment’s research makes clear, liberal democracies are also “aggressively using AI tools to police borders, apprehend potential criminals, monitor citizens for bad behavior, and pull out suspected terrorists from crowds.”

    Moreover, it’s easy to see how the China model for internet control has been integrated into the American police state’s efforts to flush out so-called anti-government, domestic extremists.

    According to journalist Adrian Shahbaz’s in-depth report, there are nine elements to the Chinese model of digital authoritarianism when it comes to censoring speech and targeting activists: 1) dissidents suffer from persistent cyber attacks and phishing; 2) social media, websites, and messaging apps are blocked; 3) posts that criticize government officials are removed; 4) mobile and internet access are revoked as punishment for activism; 5) paid commentators drown out government criticism; 6) new laws tighten regulations on online media; 7) citizens’ behavior monitored via AI and surveillance tools; 9) individuals regularly arrested for posts critical of the government; and 9) online activists are made to disappear.

    You don’t even have to be a critic of the government to get snared in the web of digital censorship and AI surveillance.

    The danger posed by the surveillance state applies equally to all of us: lawbreaker and law-abider alike.

    When the government sees all and knows all and has an abundance of laws to render even the most seemingly upstanding citizen a criminal and lawbreaker, then the old adage that you’ve got nothing to worry about if you’ve got nothing to hide no longer applies.

    As Orwell wrote in 1984, “You had to live—did live, from habit that became instinct—in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard, and, except in darkness, every movement scrutinized.”

    In an age of too many laws, too many prisons, too many government spies, and too many corporations eager to make a fast buck at the expense of the American taxpayer, we are all guilty of some transgression or other.

    No one is spared.

    As Elise Thomas writes for Wired: “New surveillance tech means you’ll never be anonymous again.”

    It won’t be long before we find ourselves looking back on the past with longing, back to an age where we could speak to whomever we wanted, buy whatever we wanted, think whatever we wanted, go wherever we wanted, feel whatever we wanted without those thoughts, words and activities being tracked, processed and stored by corporate giants, sold to government agencies, and used against us by militarized police with their army of futuristic technologies.

    Tread cautiously: as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries1984 has become an operation manual for the omnipresent, modern-day AI surveillance state.

    Without constitutional protections in place to guard against encroachments on our rights when power, AI technology and militaristic governance converge, it won’t be long before Philip K. Dick’s rules for survival become our governing reality: “If, as it seems, we are in the process of becoming a totalitarian society in which the state apparatus is all-powerful, the ethics most important for the survival of the true, free, human individual would be: cheat, lie, evade, fake it, be elsewhere, forge documents, build improved electronic gadgets in your garage that’ll outwit the gadgets used by the authorities.”

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 23:00

  • Georgia Ends Abortion With 'Heartbeat' Law After Federal Court Finds It Is Constitutional
    Georgia Ends Abortion With ‘Heartbeat’ Law After Federal Court Finds It Is Constitutional

    After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, finding that abortion is not a constitutionally protected right and left abortion laws up to individual states, there was considerable clamor by pro-abortion activists about potentially stalling state decisions through legal wrangling.  So far, their ability to stop states from representing their constituents has been limited.  

    Georgia’s Heartbeat bill was actually passed by the Georgia General Assembly into law 2019, but it was blocked in 2020 when the US District Court ruled that the bill was unconstitutional.  Everything changed after the Supreme Court decision in June.  The law makes abortions illegal after a baby forms a heartbeat, usually at six weeks (babies also form brains and synapse activity at 6-8 weeks), and it matches with similar laws in Texas, Ohio, Oklahoma and many other states. 

    The law was vindicated by a federal appeals court this week when a three-judge panel ruled that the Supreme Court decision on the Dobbs case negated pro-abortion arguments of constitutionality.  The appeals court added that “no clear right to abortion exists within the constitution” and that the state of Georgia is free to prohibit the practice.  

    Three exceptions are written into the law: 

    • First, if a pregnancy occurs due to rape or incest it can be terminated as long as a police report is filed documenting the crime. 

    • Second, if it is determined that the pregnancy presents a serious risk to the life of the mother. 

    • Third, if there is a medical condition which naturally renders the fetus unviable.

    The law also defines a “natural person” to include unborn children, granting personhood to babies still in the womb.  

    After 50 years of Roe v. Wade the practice has been well ingrained into our culture in medical terms, yet, the conflict over the Supreme Court decision in 1973 has never lost any momentum and it has never been fully accepted as legitimate.  Around half of Americans say that abortion should be legal, but only under limited circumstances according to polls.  

    This was the root argument that abortion advocates made in 1973 after the decision on Roe v. Wade – That abortion would be legal, but with numerous limitations.  Planned Parenthood worked extensively to reduce such limitations from state to state through a hailstorm of lawsuits until abortion was widely held to be a primary solution to any and all pregnancy concerns

    With a large number of contraception options in play today, the “stigma” of motherhood out of wedlock non-existent, as well as adoption foundations and charities in place, the notion of using abortion as a form of contraception has lost legitimacy.  Now, as the Georgia case shows, the decision is once again back in state hands and voter hands. 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 22:40

  • How Mattis Betrayed His Fellow Marines At The Behest Of The Deep State
    How Mattis Betrayed His Fellow Marines At The Behest Of The Deep State

    Authored by Major Fred Galvin (USMC-Ret) via The Publius National Post,

    How the Pentagon’s top-brass generals burned the careers of subordinates but then pivoted to lucrative careers all while losing the wars they were supposed to be winning

    My new book, A Few Bad Men, details the mendacity and mad dishonesty of retired Marine General James “Mad Dog” Mattis. The fact that it was written by a Marine once under his command, whom he betrayed for the sake of politics and getting to slap on another star, says volumes about this once-lionized figure.

    It all goes back to an incident in Afghanistan in 2007, and the Court of Inquiry trial of innocent Marines that followed, which Mattis himself instigated.

    Lt. Colonel Steve Morgan, USMC (retired) and jury member of the 2008 Marine Special Operations Command’s Court of Inquiry says in the foreword to A Few Bad Men, “This is a case of a perfect storm of toxic leadership.” 

    The most legendary Marine of all time, Lieutenant General John A. Lejeune, the 13th commandant of the Marine Corps, laid out clearly how to effectively nurture and lead Marines:

    “Make every effort by means of historical, educational, and patriotic addresses to cultivate in their hearts a deep abiding love of the Corps and Country” and “the key to combat effectiveness is unity and esprit that characterizes itself in complete irrevocable mutual trust.” 

    If only General Mattis had taken this to heart.

    On February 3, 2005, when Lieutenant General Mattis was attending the Armed Forces Communications and Electronic Associations forum in San Diego, he said: “You go into Afghanistan, you got guys who slap women around for five years because they didn’t wear a veil. You know, guys like that ain’t got no manhood left anyway. So it’s a hell of a lot of fun to shoot them. It’s fun to shoot some people. I’ll be right up there with you. I like brawling.” 

    He also likes hearing the sound of his own voice.

    During this same time, Mattis partnered with General David Petraeus to develop the joint counterinsurgency doctrine of winning hearts and minds. Mattis hijacked the phrase from the Hippocratic oath for his Marines to follow, “First do no harm.” This sounded good to the media and politicians in Washington, but Marines are not physicians and Afghanistan was no sterile operating room. It was a hellscape in which Marines constantly faced threats and the possibility of betrayal from 360 degrees. Mattis’ Marine Hippocratic oath sent mixed signals for his Marines, who had it on his good authority that “It’s a hell of a lot of fun to shoot . . . some people.”  

    Just over two years later, I led the First Marine Special Operations Task Force. We landed in Afghanistan on February 12, 2007. Before long the First was involved in a complex ambush near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, on March 4, 2007. We were attacked by a suicide car-bomb, waves of Taliban fighters on both sides of the road, a sniper, and a mob that placed an obstacle to trap us in an ambush kill box. We  successfully counterattacked, killed the Taliban terrorists, avoided civilian casualties, and returned to base within 20 minutes, where we learned of the Taliban’s swift information operations campaign that was already underway, accusing us of mass-murdering Afghan civilians. The Taliban’s version of events went out within 20 minutes through the BBC followed by countless others. Ultimately, the president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, condemned our actions and the Army generals kicked us out of Afghanistan within five days. Crushing the Taliban in battle morphed into a PR victory for the extremists in the media and a weakening of the allied forces in country. Due process went right out the window.

    Ironically, Mattis was assigned as the convening authority by the commandant of the Marine Corps in August 2007, to be responsible for the investigation and a Court of Inquiry into our March 4 battle. Mattis received the results of my polygraph test and the sworn testimony of all the Marines involved in the firefight, confirming that on that morning no Marines said they killed any civilians or saw any civilians killed. 

    Unlike Lejeune’s comments of “cultivating a deep abiding love of Country and Corps in the hearts of your Marines and that the key to combat effectiveness is unity and esprit that characterizes itself in complete irrevocable mutual trust,” Mattis unleashed an unprecedented 45 criminal investigators and four prosecuting attorneys against the seven Marines falsely accused by the Taliban of mass murder. It would become the longest war crimes trial in Marine Corps history. 

    Mattis placed a “protective order” (a.k.a. gag order) prohibiting the two Marine officers who he named as codefendants from making any statements to the press or face punishment. Our attorneys would face disbarment. The already unlevel playing field was tilted hard against the Marines who had won a battlefield victory under fire.

    Additionally, Mattis’ prosecution team found perceived vulnerabilities in the Marine commandos and commenced “ethnic targeting” of two Hispanic Marines. Mad Dog’s prosecutors continuously interrogated one of them, and the government manufactured a statement from him that our fire was out of control during the March 4 ambush. 

    The prosecution then threatened to deport the Marine’s mother back to Mexico unless he signed the statement. That Marine testified he was coerced into signing the prosecution’s false statement. Another Hispanic Marine also testified he was repeatedly threatened by the prosecution to take a polygraph, which was not a legal order, but the prosecution ordered him to anyway. None of the other Marines were subjected to these strongarm Gestapo tactics.

    Mattis turned the prosecution over to his successor in the fall of 2007 as he received his promotion with a fourth star. The following year, the trial acquitted all of us. No thanks to Mad Dog Mattis. He got his star. A few bad prosecutors under his watch cost the Marines a few good men, and diminished America’s position in Afghanistan at a time when that war might still have been won.

    Mattis went on to serve as the commander of all U.S. Forces in the Middle East at U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Florida. As I detail in A Few Bad Men, there he came under the influence of Elizabeth Holmes, founder and CEO of Theranos. Holmes had a device she claimed could detect all kinds of disease in a few drops of blood. It would change the world, if it worked. Holmes contacted Mattis in August 2012 and wrote Pentagon officials requesting, “How do we overcome this new obstacle? I have tried to get this device tested in theater asap, legally and ethically. This appears to be relatively straight-forward yet we’re a year into this and not yet deployed.” 

    The main problem Mattis was willing to overlook was that the FDA had not approved Theranos’ blood testing technology to be used on our troops in Afghanistan, but Mattis was hoping he could push it through, right or wrong. 

    Mattis retired and went on to make a fortune serving on four corporate boards, including Theranos and military contractor General Dynamics. Theranos’ technology would not only be denied FDA approval, but it was proven to be a fraud. During the Elizabeth Holmes trial, Mattis, who had served as a Theranos board member for several years, testified that he was unaware of any of Theranos’ scandalous actions. This seems unlikely, given Mad Dog’s legendary tenacity, and the fact that he had a fiduciary duty to know what was going on.

    Holmes’ device never worked. She is now a convicted fraudster. Was Mattis her gullible mark or a greedy participant?

    Mattis’ disgraceful actions are laid bare in A Few Bad Men. He used his position as secretary of defense to bottle up the Freedom of Information Act requests to get our testimony in that March 4, 2007 ambush exposed. Our shocking testimonies have now been released and tell a terrible story of betrayal by a Marine against other Marines. They reveal why the Pentagon’s top-brass generals who burned the careers of subordinates but then pivoted to lucrative careers with every defense contracting company lost their forever war in Afghanistan, and really, haven’t won a war in decades.

    *  *  *

    Major Fred Galvin (USMC-Ret), author of A Few Bad Men: The True Story of U.S. Marines Ambushed in Afghanistan and Betrayed in America.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 22:20

  • President's Party Up Against Poor Odds In The Midterms
    President’s Party Up Against Poor Odds In The Midterms

    The Democrats are controlling the House, the Senate and the presidency at the moment, but the midterm election coming up at the end of the year has the power to change this Status Quo. With the Republicans’ conservative roll-back in full swing, you would expect Democratic voters on the left to be energized, but the party is up against a historical precedent at the same time: The president’s party rarely does well in the midterms.

    As Statista’s Katharina Buchholz shows, based on data by The American Presidency Project, there is only two presidents of the modern age who could expand their party’s showing in both chambers in the midterms or at least not lose ground: Bill Clinton, during his second term, and George W. Bush, during his first, when he managed to flip the Senate in his favor while holding on to the House just one year after 9/11.

    Against these few success stories stands a long line of defeats.

    Infographic: President’s Party up Against Poor Odds in the Midterms | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Barack Obama lost control of the House forever two years into his eight-year term and suffered another major setback in his second midterms when he lost the Senate as well. Bill Clinton in 1994 lost control of both chambers of Congress by the middle of his first term and never won them back in the six years that followed despite the gains he made in his second midterm election. After George W. Bush’s successful first midterms, debacle followed four years later as he lost both chambers in 2006 amid fall-out from Hurricane Katrina and the war in Iraq.

    While the proof of midterm losses for sitting presidents is resounding, the reasons behind them are more muddled. Nobody really knows why the midterms are so hard for incumbents irrespective of the political climate. Depending on how a president is perceived by his voters, he could be hit by either apathy or disappointment. Other than 9/11, which helped George W. Bush succeed, other national crises have not proven a good predictor for midterms success, which leave two more possible culprits: presidential approval and the state of the economy.

    Neither will work in Biden’s favor in November.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 22:00

  • Biden Ripped For $1BN Arms Deal With UAE After Khashoggi Lawyer Given 3 Years In Prison
    Biden Ripped For $1BN Arms Deal With UAE After Khashoggi Lawyer Given 3 Years In Prison

    Authored by Brett Wilkins via Common Dreams,

    Progressive Dems this week decried the Biden administration’s approval of a nearly $1 billion weapons support deal with the United Arab Emirates—a move that came days after an Abu Dhabi court controversially sentenced a Virginia civil rights lawyer to three years in prison.

    The US State Department’s approval of the $980.4 million agreement for “upgrades and sustainment” of the UAE’s fleet of Boeing C-17 Globemaster III military transport planes was announced Tuesday, two days after the Abu Dhabi Criminal Court sentenced Asim Ghafoor to three years behind bars, a fine of over $816,000, and deportation upon completion of his sentence for alleged money laundering and tax evasion.

    Ghafoor, a U.S. citizen who previously represented murdered Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and his fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, was arrested Thursday at Dubai International Airport while en route to Turkey to attend a family wedding, the group Democracy in the Arab World Now (DAWN)—on whose board Ghafoor serves—said Friday.

    Getty Images

    The US-UAE deal was announced days after Biden met with and praised leaders of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, countries accused of perpetrating human rights violations ranging from war crimes and apartheid to the killing, and persecution of U.S. citizens.

    “It’s clear that Biden isn’t breaking with Trump on the Mideast,” MSNBC journalist Mehdi Hasan tweeted Tuesday, a reference to then-President Donald Trump’s embrace of Arab dictators and unconditional support for Israel’s right-wing government. “Israel, Saudi, the UAE… Biden [is] doubling down on support for them, even when they kill or detain U.S. citizens and residents.”

    US lawmakers, activists, and journalists are leading condemnation of Ghafoor’s imprisonment. Middle East Eye reports nearly a dozen members of Congress, including Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), and Don Beyer (D-Va.) have demanded Ghafoor’s release.

    “I am appalled that Asim Ghafoor, American lawyer who represented Khashoggi, was detained and imprisoned in UAE based on an in absentia conviction with no notice or opportunity to defend himself,” Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) tweeted Tuesday, adding that Ghafoor “must be freed and allowed to return to the U.S.”

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    Meanwhile, Cengiz said in a statement Tuesday that she believes Ghafoor’s prosecution was politically motivated. “I have an ongoing civil lawsuit against the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, and his co-conspirators in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. The trial begins soon,” she explained. “Asim Ghafoor is part of DAWN’s legal team in this lawsuit. I am concerned that the UAE has jailed Asim to intimidate the legal team and myself, and anyone who calls for democracy in the Middle East.”

    Matt Duss, who advises Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on foreign policy, sardonically questioned the UAE’s commitment to fighting the type of corruption of which Ghafoor is accused.

    “If you believe that UAE, a global destination for kleptocrats’ stolen wealth, has suddenly joined the anti-corruption fight and just coincidentally started with Jamaal Khashoggi’s lawyer, I would very much like to invite you to my poker game,” he tweeted.

    In explaining why Ghafoor was arrested, the Emirati state news outlet WAM claimed the apprehension was the result of “mutual coordination to combat transnational crimes with the United States.”

    However, State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said during a Monday press briefing that the U.S. did not want Ghafoor arrested, and that administration officials “conveyed our expectations to our Emirati partners that Mr. Ghafoor receive continued consular access, that he be afforded a fair and transparent legal process, and that he be treated humanely.”

    Price stated that “we see no indication at this point that [Ghafoor’s] detention has anything to do with his association with Jamal Khashoggi, but we’re still gathering information.”

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    According to The Washington Post, the U.S. Department of Justice, when asked if it requested an Emirati investigation of Ghafoor, said that the agency “does not publicly comment on communications with foreign governments on investigative matters, including confirming or denying the very existence of such communications.”

    Although the Biden administration was initially applauded for pausing arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, human rights defenders have condemned renewed deals including the 2021 sale of tens of billions of dollars worth of Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets, armed drones, and munitions to the Emirati government.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 21:40

  • Cadillac Reveals New $300,000 Electric Sedan
    Cadillac Reveals New $300,000 Electric Sedan

    “Celestiq has arrived, bringing to life Cadillac’s purest expression of design and innovation. A defining statement of a true Cadillac flagship,” Cadillac tweeted Friday morning while unveiling new images of its $300,000 ultra-luxury electric sedan. 

    The Celestiq is Cadillac’s first major attempt to reclaim its decades-old slogan “Standard of the World” with a handcrafted luxury sedan equipped with an all-wheel-drive electric powertrain capable of a +300-mile driving range and packed with groundbreaking technologies (including a hands-free assisted-driving system). 

    “Those vehicles represented the pinnacle of luxury in their respective eras, and helped make Cadillac the standard of the world,” Tony Roma, chief engineer of the Celestiq. 

    “The Celestiq show car — also a sedan, because the configuration offers the very best luxury experience — builds on that pedigree and captures the spirt of arrival they expressed,” Tony Roma, chief engineer of the Celestiq, said in a statement. 

    Cadillac plans to produce only 500 Celestiqs per year in an $81 million facility at GM’s Global Technology Center in Warren, Michigan. 

    We noted ahead of today’s preview that the luxury sedan is scheduled to go into production by late 2023.

    Cadillac did not release details about Celestiq’s range, performance, or other metrics.

    Cadillac appears to be reimagining the future of American luxury, though it’s still a Cadillac… 

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 21:20

  • Tverberg: Why Raising Rates To Reduce Inflation May Work Out Very Badly
    Tverberg: Why Raising Rates To Reduce Inflation May Work Out Very Badly

    Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,

    Are we headed for very high energy prices? Or, are we headed for a financial system that starts falling apart? The whole economic system may change remarkably. For example, what many people thought was money, or a promised pension plan, may not really be there when the time comes to get value from it. Shelves in stores may be empty when it comes time to make a purchase.

    Most people do not understand that the world economy is a physics-based system, powered by energy. If the energy is suddenly much less available, there will be a huge problem. The world economy has been powered by a rapidly growing supply of energy for over 200 years.

    Figure 1. World energy consumption by fuel based on Vaclav Smil’s estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with data from BP’s 2011 Statistical Review of World Energy for 1965 and subsequent. Wind and solar are included in Biofuels.

    My concern is that the current attempt to bring inflation down will lead to falling energy supply and a world economy that is rapidly changing for the worse.

    Figure 2. Energy amounts for 2010 and prior equal to those in Figure 1, with a corresponding amount for 2020. Future energy for 2030, 2040 and 2050 are rough estimates based on the observation that the world is now reaching extraction limits for both coal and oil.

    Everything I can see says that world leaders are not able to face the possibility that the world is already running seriously short of oil and coal. Future supplies are likely to be much lower, and much more expensive, if they are available at all. Other energy types (including natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind and solar) are simply add-ons to a system built using coal and oil.

    Current world leaders do not realize that the energy situation is very much like the water level in Lake Mead. Looking at it from the top, there still seems to be water there but, in fact, the required depth is lacking. Water for watering crops will soon be exhausted. The world’s energy supply is not a whole lot different. The supposedly proven reserves do not tell us anything at all. It is the amount of fossil fuels that can be affordably extracted that is important. We have already exceeded the amount that can be affordably extracted. If central banks cut back future energy supplies using higher interest rates, we can expect to encounter major problems going forward.

    In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues involved.

    [1] The amount of energy the economy requires depends very much on population. The greater the world population, the more oil is needed for food production and transportation. Non-oil energy is a bit more flexible in quantity than oil, but the total quantity of energy per capita needs to keep rising to prevent very adverse outcomes.

    Figure 3. World per capita energy consumption by source, with the 1950-1980 period of rapid growth highlighted. Amounts are equal to those used in Figure 1, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison.

    Figure 3 highlights the fact that the period of Rapid Energy Growth between 1950 and 1980 was a period of unprecedented growth in per capita energy consumption. This was a period when many families could afford their own car for the first time. There were enough employment opportunities that, quite often, both spouses could hold down paying jobs outside the home. It was the growing supply of inexpensive fossil fuels that made these jobs available.

    If a person looks closely, it is possible to see that the 1920 to 1940 period was a period of very low growth in energy consumption, relative to population. This was also the period of the Great Depression and the period leading up to World War II. Sluggish energy consumption growth at that time was linked to very undesirable socioeconomic outcomes.

    Energy is like food for the economy. If energy of the right kinds is cheaply available, it is possible to build new roads, pipelines and electricity transmission lines. World trade grows. If available energy is inadequate, major wars tend to break out and standards of living are likely to fall. We now seem to be approaching a time of too little energy, relative to population.

    [2] Recently published data through 2021 indicates that energy consumption growth is not keeping up with population growth, similar to the situation of the 1930s. This says that the economy is doing poorly. Supply lines are broken; most jobs don’t pay well; many goods that normally would be available aren’t available.

    Figure 4. World energy consumption per capita, based on information published in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    Figure 4 shows that the year with the highest per capita energy consumption was 2018. This agrees with other information such as automobile sales.

    Figure 5. Auto sales by country, based on data of vda.de

    For example, the number of automobiles sold seems to have peaked back in the 2018 period. China and India are both reporting fewer automobile sales recently. The economy was already sliding into recession in 2019. The 2020 shutdowns hid the very poor condition the world economy was already in. If people were forced to remain in their homes, they could not take to the streets to protest their poor wages and pension plans. The shutdowns helped give the impression the world economy was doing better than it really was.

    Figure 4 shows that even with the bounce back in 2021, total energy consumption per capita is still below the 2018 and 2019 values. This contrasts with the situation that occurred after the 2008-2009 Great Recession. By 2010, per capita energy consumption was back above the 2007 and 2008 values.

    [3] We can look back and see how rising interest rates were used to slow the world economy in the 2004 to 2006 period, and how different the economic situation was then compared to now. Even with the rapid growth the economy was making at the time of the interest rates increases, the result was still a deep recession in 2008-2009.

    Figure 6. Figure similar to Figure 4 showing world energy consumption per capita, except that notation has been added with respect to the timing of increases in US Federal Reserve Target Interest Rates.

    It is clear from Figure 4 and Figure 6 that between 2001 and 2007, the quantity of energy consumed per capita was rising rapidly. This was the period shortly after China was added to the World Trade Organization. Manufacturing was rapidly being moved to China. China’s demand for energy products of all kinds was rising rapidly. As a result of this greater demand, oil prices were increasing between 2001 and 2007. To try to reduce inflation, the Federal Reserve raised target interest rates in the 2004 to 2006 period and gradually brought them down, starting in late 2007.

    There are two things that are striking about this earlier situation:

    1. The world economy (as shown by rising energy supply) was growing much more rapidly during the 2001 to 2007 period than it is in 2022. All the world economy is trying to do now is get back to where it was before the 2020 shutdowns, in terms of energy consumption per capita.

    2. Eventually, there was a bad reaction to the higher interest rates of 2004 to 2006, but this did not come until 2008-2009. This was a much longer lag than most people would expect.

    Now, in 2022, we cannot get energy consumption per capita up to the 2018 and 2019 levels. There are many unfinished automobiles, waiting for missing parts. Appliances of many kinds are not available without a long wait. Fertilizer is often not available. Broken supply lines leave many store shelves empty. It is not that demand is unusually high; it is the supply of the energy products we need to grow food and to transport many finished goods that is not available.

    Raising interest rates is a way to reduce the demand for finished goods and services, such as automobiles and appliances, if the world economy is growing very rapidly, as it was back in the 2001 to 2007 period. If the problem is an inadequate supply of finished goods and services (due to broken supply lines and low wages for workers), then raising interest rates is entirely the wrong medicine. It will cause even fewer automobiles and appliances to be made. It will cause many current workers to be laid off. Such an approach, when the world is trying to deal with too few workers, will tend to make the situation worse, rather than better.

    [4] The trend in fossil fuel supplies is concerning. Both oil and coal are past peak, on a per capita basis. World coal supply has been lagging population growth since at least 2011. While natural gas production is rising, the price tends to be high and the cost of transport is very high.

    Most energy charts are similar to Figure 7, showing energy consumption on a total product supplied basis, without reference to the size of the population using those resources.

    Figure 7. Total quantity of oil, coal and natural gas supplied based on information published in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    Figure 7 indicates that coal supplies are, in some sense, the most troubled of the three types of fossil fuels. In the 2001 to 2007 period, China was able to ramp up its manufacturing using coal, but eventually those supplies ran short. In fact, coal supplies around the world started running short. Instead of telling us about the shortfall in production, we started hearing a story that sounds a lot like The Fox and the Grapes of Aesop’s Fables: Coal is a horribly polluting fuel which we don’t really want anyhow.

    To understand how these quantities correspond to the world’s rising population, it is helpful to look at consumption divided by population, shown in Figure 8.

    Figure 8. Oil, coal and natural gas energy consumption per capita, based on data in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

    Figure 8 shows that oil consumption per capita was relatively stable up until 2019. Then, it suddenly dropped in 2020, and it has not been able to fully recover from that drop in 2021. In fact, we know that as oil production has tried to increase in 2022, its price has risen further. Of the years shown, 2004 was the year with the highest oil consumption per capita. That was back at the time that “conventional” oil production peaked.

    Figure 8 shows that the peak production of coal, relative to world population, was in the year 2011. Now, in 2022, the least expensive coal to extract has been depleted. World coal consumption has fallen far behind population growth. The big drop-off in coal availability means that countries are increasingly looking to natural gas as a flexible source of electricity generation. But natural gas has many other uses, including its use in making fertilizer and as a feedstock for many herbicides, pesticides, and insecticides. The result is that there is more demand for natural gas than can easily be supplied.

    [5] Governments and academic institutions have gone out of their way to avoid telling the world how important energy of the right types and in the right quantities is to the economy.

    Politicians cannot admit that the world economy cannot get along without the right quantities of energy that match the needs of today’s infrastructure. At most, a small amount of substitution is possible, if all the necessary transition steps are taken. Each transition step requires energy of various kinds. For example, a small amount of intermittent wind can be added to the fossil-fuel generated electricity supply, if care is taken to ramp up fossil-fuel generated electricity to offset the lack of wind when there is a shortfall in supply. Otherwise, battery or other storage is needed for the wind energy until the wind energy is truly needed by the system.

    Thus, most people today are convinced that the economy doesn’t need energy. They believe that the world’s biggest problem is climate change. They tend to cheer when they hear that fossil fuel supplies are being shut down. Of course, without energy of the right kinds, jobs disappear. The total quantity of goods and services produced tends to fall very steeply. In this situation, there is likely not enough food for all the people in the world. War is likely to break out over limited resources.

    [6] Once the economy starts heading downward, it is not clear that the economy can ever “catch itself” and start back on an upward path again, even for a short while.

    Back in 2001, the World Economy was able to get a “bail out” from China’s rapid growth in coal production, but as we have seen, world coal production is no longer growing as fast as population.

    Back in about 2010 and 2011, growth in US crude oil from shale formations was able to temporarily bail out world oil supply, but now this is also failing. Also, even the recent “growth” shown is to a significant extent from the completion of “drilled but uncompleted” wells started earlier. Eventually, there are no more “DUCs” to complete.

    Figure 9. EIA chart showing US Field Production of Crude Oil through June 24, 2022.

    In fact, despite all of the supposed high reserves of many kinds around the world, there is little evidence that the Middle East, or anywhere else, can actually raise production much higher.

    Once the economy starts shrinking, debt defaults are likely to become a big problem. Banks will find their balance sheets impaired. They may be forced to close. Citizens with deposits may find that only part of their balance is available to spend.

    Government programs will necessarily be forced to cut back to match the energy supplies that are available. For example, if road paving material is not available, roads cannot be repaved. If fuel cannot be found for school buses, students may need to learn at home.

    Governments at all levels have promised pension plans. In fact, many employers have promised pension plans. Without a growing supply to cheap-to-produce energy, these promises are meaningless. Somehow, governments will find it necessary to cut back on their promises. Perhaps, Social Security and Medicare programs will be handed back to US States to fund, to the extent that the states have funds for these programs. Governments around the world can expect to face similar problems.

    With less energy supply available, the whole world economy that we know today seems likely to start falling apart. Fewer goods will be available through international trade. It is cheap energy that has allowed today’s economy to function. Once this cheap energy is depleted, the world economy will need to shrink back in many ways, at once.

    We don’t really know precisely what lies ahead, and perhaps, this lack of knowledge is for the best. We cannot even imagine a world economy changing rapidly for the worse.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 21:00

  • These Are The 20 Nations With The Fastest Declining Populations
    These Are The 20 Nations With The Fastest Declining Populations

    Since the mid-1900s, the global population has followed a steep upwards trajectory.

    While much of this growth has been concentrated in China and India, researchers expect the next wave of growth to occur in Africa. As of 2019, for example, the average woman in Niger is having over six children in her lifetime.

    However, as Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu details below, at the opposite end of this spectrum are a number of countries that appear to be shrinking from a population perspective. To shed some light on this somewhat surprising trend, we’ve visualized the top 20 countries by population decline.

    The Top 20

    The following table ranks countries by their rate of population decline, based on projected rate of change between 2020 and 2050 and using data from the United Nations.

     

    Many of these countries are located in or near Eastern Europe, for reasons we’ll discuss below.

     

    The first issue is birth rates, which according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), have fallen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Across the region, the average number of children per woman fell from 2.1 in 1988 to 1.2 by 1998.

    Birth rates have recovered slightly since then, but are not enough to offset deaths and emigration, which refers to citizens leaving their country to live elsewhere.

    Eastern Europe saw several waves of emigration following the European Union’s (EU) border expansions in 2004 and 2007. The PIIE reports that by 2016, 6.3 million Eastern Europeans resided in other EU states.

    The Outliers

    There are two geographical outliers in this dataset which sit on either side of Europe.

    Japan

    The first is Japan, where birth rates have fallen continuously since 1970. It wasn’t until 2010, however, that the country’s overall population began to shrink.

    By the numbers, the situation appears dire. In 2021, 811,604 babies were born in Japan, while 1.44 million people died. As a result of its low birth rates, the island nation also has the world’s highest average age at 49 years old.

    The Japanese government has introduced various social programs to make having kids more appealing, but these don’t appear to be getting to the root of the problem. For deeper insight into Japan’s low birthrates, it’s worth reading this article by The Atlantic.

    Cuba

    The second country is Cuba, and it’s the only one not located within the Eastern Hemisphere. Cuba’s fertility rate of 1.7 children per woman is the lowest in the Latin American region. It can be compared to countries like Mexico (2.2), Paraguay (2.5), and Guatemala (3.0).

    Cuba’s immigration is also incredibly low compared to its neighboring countries. According to the International Organization for Migration, immigrants account for just 0.1% of its total population.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 20:40

  • Texas GOP Training 5,000 Election Workers, Poll Watchers To Improve Election Integrity: Spokesman
    Texas GOP Training 5,000 Election Workers, Poll Watchers To Improve Election Integrity: Spokesman

    Authored by Gary Bai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The Texas GOP says it is stepping up election integrity efforts in the state by training and recruiting election personnel watching the polls, according to a party spokesperson.

    Texas should be the standard bearer for all things Republican, with a Republican-dominated legislature and state office for going on 20 years now,” Wesolek said, noting that the issue of election integrity is “absolutely” a part of this axiom. 

    Texas GOP chairman Matt Rinaldi (left) presides over procedures at the Republican Party of Texas Convention in Houston, Texas, on June 18, 2022. (Darlene McCormick Sanchez/The Epoch Times)

    Since former U.S. President Donald Trump left office in 2021, the Lone Star State’s Republican Party has trained over 5,000 election workers and poll watchers in the state, as part of an effort to “set the goalpost” for improving election integrity statewide and beyond, party spokesperson James Wesolek told The Epoch Times in an interview in July.

    “When it comes to good Republican policy, Texas should be leading the way and showing what that means … what good Republican policy looks like,” the spokesperson added.

    The Texas GOP’s in-house staff and contractors, in partnership with the Republican National Committee, county-level Republican parties, and other grassroots groups, conduct training and recruitment of election personnel in the state.

    The poll watchers would observe the conduct of the election and report irregularities and violations of the Election Code, if any, to election officials. All political parties are allowed to hire election workers to observe all parts of election administration.

    “It’s a team effort, and in the end, it’s all a responsibility we feel to be accountable to the voters of Texas,” Wesolek said.

    Texas’s Republicans, in conjunction with former U.S. President Donald Trump and other conservative figures, have been voicing their concerns about how the 2020 election was administered.

    More than 5,000 delegates at the biennial Texas GOP Convention last month voted and passed a resolution that stated President Joe Biden “was not legitimately elected” and that “substantial” election fraud in key metropolitan areas influenced the results of the 2020 presidential election in favor of Biden. This resolution makes the Lone Star state the first to reject the 2020 election results. Democrats and legacy media have vociferously denied such allegations, claiming them to be unfounded.

    At the convention, the delegates voted for eight out of 15 topics they deemed important, which then became the official legislative priorities for the Texas GOP during the 88th session (2023-2024) of the Texas legislature. 

    Out of these eight selected priorities, the “Protect our Elections” legislative priority would guide the Texas legislature in passing measures that Republican delegates believe would improve election security in the state. 

    These measures include restoring felony penalties and enacting civil penalties for Election Code violations, requiring voter citizenship verification, restricting mail-in ballots to only the disabled, military personnel, and citizens that are out of state, reducing the time allowed for early voting, eliminating the three-day gap between early voting and election day, and establishing closed primaries in Texas.

    “Despite the legislative priorities that we have, we’re still out in the field training poll watchers and election workers every day so that we can trust and verify, make sure that our election integrity laws that are already on the book are followed, that the law is followed, that there are repercussions for [election fraud] when it happens,” Wesolek said.

    “And some of what we had seen in our legislative priorities stems from those efforts where [the poll watchers] noticed that there was lack of enforcement for some of [the election integrity laws] and wanted to get that addressed,” the spokesperson added.

    Bill filing for Texas’s 88th legislative session begins on Nov. 14.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 20:20

  • Families Brawl At Disney World As The Company Brand Decays
    Families Brawl At Disney World As The Company Brand Decays

    It seems like Disney has been deliberately chasing controversy the past couple of years.  Leaks of management video conferences have shown the company to be widely engaged in distributing woke propaganda through its entertainment media.  They openly opposed Florida’s anti-grooming bill which prevented teachers from engaging in sexualized discussions with young children.  And, a majority of their box office movies and streaming content has fallen flat in terms of audience numbers and revenues

    Disney’s stock has plunged by around 30% in the past six months, and the company is now heavily relying on cash from the theme parks to keep itself afloat.  Public sentiment towards Disney is in steep decline according to polls, and this is likely due to far-left ideology being injected into every facet of the conglomerate.  That said, there is also an increasing number of incidents of violence at the parks as well as negative encounters with employees.  

    The latest event involved a big brawl between two families at Disney World, apparently over a woman leaving an attraction line and then returning to her family.  This set off the chaos in the video below:

    Some of the guests have now been arrested and banned from the park, but only after the fight went unimpeded and security was nowhere to be seen.  This is just one among a host of incidents that have ruined the image of a company which once relied entirely on family friendly, non-confrontational and non-political fun.  This doesn’t look like much fun, but many might find it funny to watch Disney implode.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 20:00

  • What We Know About The 22-Year-Old Who Stopped A Mass Shooting In Indiana
    What We Know About The 22-Year-Old Who Stopped A Mass Shooting In Indiana

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Authorities revealed that the 22-year-old Indiana man who stopped a mass shooting at an Indiana mall over the weekend is Elisjsha Dicken.

    The suspect was identified as Jonathan Sapirman, 20, who was killed by Dicken. Sapirman killed three people, identified by local officals as Pedro Pineda, 56; Rosa Mirian Rivera de Pineda, 37; and Victor Gomez, 30.

    A customer shops for a pistol in Tinley Park, Illinois, on Dec. 17, 2012. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

    What Happened in the Incident

    Dicken was accompanying his girlfriend at the Greenwood Park Mall, located 15 miles south of Indianapolis, when a shooter opened fire after emerging from the mall bathroom, Greenwood Police Chief Jim Ison said.

    I will say his actions were nothing short of heroic,” Ison said of Dicken.

    Dicken then “engaged the [shooter] from quite a distance with a handgun, was very proficient in that, very tactically sound, and as he moved to close in on the suspect he was also motioning for people to exit behind him,” Ison explained during a news conference.

    Authorities in the news conference said Sapirman’s motive is unknown. Before he opened fire, Sapirman spent more than one hour in the mall bathroom, Ison said.

    In this aerial view, a water tower is seen outside of the Greenwood Park Mall in Indiana on July 18, 2022. (Jon Cherry/Getty Images)

    He had purchased three weapons and brought them to the mall, Ison said, but he only used a Sig Sauer M400 rifle.

    Legal Implications

    Indiana attorney Guy Relford, who is representing Dicken, said that his client followed the law.

    Relford issued a statement saying he’s “a true American hero who saved countless lives during a horrific event that could have been so much worse if not for Eli’s courage, preparedness and willingness to protect others.”

    “Because we want to respect the on-going criminal investigation by the Greenwood Police Department and take time to honor the three innocent lives lost, we won’t be making any substantive comments on Sunday’s events until after the authorities’ investigation is closed,” Dicken’s lawyer added.

    As of July 1 in Indiana, state law no longer required individuals to have a permit to carry a firearm. Officials said Dicken was armed with a 9mm handgun.

    Dicken was not technically allowed to carry a gun inside the mall as the Greenwood Park Mall’s website says it has a no-gun policy.

    However, the rule “certainly has no effect whatsoever on his ability to use force to defend himself or to defend the other people in the mall,” Relford told the Indianapolis Star. He said that if Dicken carried the firearm into the mall and was told to leave and he doesn’t, he could be charged with trespassing.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 19:40

  • DOJ Sabotaged Trump Release Of Russiagate Docs
    DOJ Sabotaged Trump Release Of Russiagate Docs

    The Department of Justice blocked the release of hundreds of pages of ‘Russiagate’ documents that were declassified by then-president Donald Trump, who wanted to expose FBI abuses against he and his inner circle surrounding the 2016 US election and beyond.

    After the agency refused, citing last minute ‘privacy concerns,’ they defied a subsequent order to release the materials after redactions were made, according to Just the News, which has obtained a memo from the National Archives written by former White House Chief-of-Staff, Mark Meadows, hours before Trump left office on January 20, 2021.

    Meadows’ memo confirmed prior reporting by Just the News that Trump on Jan. 19, 2021 declassified a binder of hundreds of pages of sensitive FBI documents that show how the bureau used informants and FISA warrants to spy on the Trump campaign and misled both a federal court and Congress about flaws in the evidence they offered to get approval for the investigation.

    The declassified documents included transcripts of intercepts made by the FBI of Trump aides, a declassified copy of the final FISA warrant approved by an intelligence court, and the tasking orders and debriefings of the two main confidential human sources, Christopher Steele and Stefan Halper, the bureau used to investigate whether Trump had colluded with Russia to steal the 2016 election. -Just the News

    Investigations into Trump and his campaign, as we know, found that there was no collusion with the Kremlin. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton authorized the dissemination of a fabricated claim that the Trump team was communicating with a Russian bank.

    The declassified documents have never seen the light of day – as the DOJ disobeyed a direct order from the sitting US president, through Meadows, to declassify and expeditiously release them after private information was redacted.

    “I am returning the bulk of the binder of declassified documents to the Department of Justice (including all that appear to have a potential to raise privacy concerns) with the instruction that the Department must expeditiously conduct a Privacy Act review under the standards that the Department of Justice would normally apply, redact material appropriately, and release the remaining material with redactions applied,” wrote Meadows – who told JTN that he was dismayed at the DOJ’s refusal to follow lawful instructions from the president.

    Well, you know, the swamp is pretty deep,” he said. “But when we look at this, this particular president was all about draining the swamp, you know, and when he was running, that was more of a campaign slogan. When he got there, he realized that not only was the swamp very deep, but they they would fight back. And oftentimes he said, ‘You know, I want to do this and get this out to the American people, not just the classification in terms of issues that affected him or his campaign personally, but issues that affect the American people.”

    “What would happen is he would have a directive, and then we would see, as people were leaving the Oval Office, you know, they were nodding compliance in the Oval Office, and the minute they go out, they said, ‘Well, we’re not going to do that’ or ‘We’re going to find all the reasons not to do it.’ So I found that very often while I served as chief of staff, but also found that as a member of Congress, that many times we would go in and the president was all in on a transparency issue, only to find that many, whether they be at a particular agency or the Pentagon, they started pushing back.”

    According to Meadows, if the documents are ever released they’ll show that congressional Democrats and FBI leadership knew they were lying.

    “We found that not only were some of the allegations made by some of the Democrats false, but they were kind of guilty of what they were accusing Donald Trump of,” he said.

    Read more here and see Meadows’ memo below.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 19:40

  • These Are The World's Highest-Grossing Companies
    These Are The World’s Highest-Grossing Companies

    Walmart is the top-selling company in the world, turning over around $573 billion in annual revenue. 

    This is according to the Statista company database Company DB. The company in second place, e-commerce giant Amazon, is a whopping $100 billion behind that with a revenue of around $470 billion.

    Infographic: The World's Highest-grossing Companies | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Two Chinese companies are also included in the list.

    The State Grid Cooperation of China, which is in the business of electricity generation, transmission and distribution, and China Petroleum, a state-owned oil and gas enterprise.

    Two more fossil fuel companies, state-owned Saudi Aramco from Saudi Arabia and British-owned Shell, also make the Top 10.

    Apple and Volkswagen are the only two consumer goods companies that appear on the list. A third retailer – and a second one from the traditional brick-and-mortar field – appears in rank six: U.S. drug store chain CVS.

    This means that Amazon remains the only seller dedicated exclusively to e-commerce on the list for now.

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 19:20

  • Republican Mayra Flores Accuses Democrat Opponent Of Paying Blogger For Racist Posts
    Republican Mayra Flores Accuses Democrat Opponent Of Paying Blogger For Racist Posts

    Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Republican Congresswoman Mayra Flores responded to racial stereotypes and crude language used to describe her by a South Texas blogger paid with campaign money from Congressman Vicente Gonzales, her Democratic opponent in the Texas District 34 midterm election.

    Republican Mayra Flores, a legal immigrant from Mexico, won her bid for Texas Congressional District 34. (Courtesy of Mayra Flores)

    In a Twitter post on Monday, Flores accused the Gonzales campaign of paying for a blogger to “run hateful and racist ads” against her. The posts that appeared in the McHale Report blog referred to her as “Miss Frijoles,” “Miss Menudo,” “Miss Enchiladas,” and a “cotton-pickin’ liar.”

    “I am disgusted that Vicente Gonzalez has hired a creepy blogger to attack my Mexican heritage and sexually degrade me, but I won’t let this distract me from my work,” she told The Epoch Times via text. “Vicente Gonzalez is an example of everything that’s wrong with Washington. It’s truly sick,” she said.

    Jerry McHale, a longtime South Texas blogger, also used sexually crude language in a May 13 headline about the Congresswoman: “Does Flores Want Trump to Come & Take Her [expletive]???”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Federal Elections Commission data shows Gonzalez made campaign advertising expenditures to Jerry McHale of $1,200 on June 24 and $1,000 on October 27, 2021.

    McHale told The Epoch Times that Gonzalez never told him what to write, and he has never spoken to the Congressman. He was unapologetic for the language used in the blog. The self-described ultra-left Democratic blogger said he had no regrets using “satire” to describe Flores or “punching hard” at Republicans. He said Gonzalez and other politicians pay him to run photos with wording akin to a headline.

    Colin Steel, campaign manager for Gonzalez, did not return a call seeking comment. However, he told NBC News, which first reported the story, that Gonzalez disapproves of calling Flores names and denied any wrongdoing.

    Flores became the first Republican elected in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande District in more than 100 years. The devout Christian won a special election for the district on a conservative platform of God, family, and country.

    Rep.-elect Mayra Flores (R-TX) stands with her family and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) for a portrait after being sworn-in on June 21, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

    The controversial blog is just the latest incident in the rough-and-tumble political race for Texas District 34, which Flores aims to keep red. During her swearing-in ceremony, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi appeared to nudge Flores’ daughter to the side, which prompted Flores to condemn Pelosi on social media.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 19:00

  • It's "Embarrassing" – Aussie Govt Probes Central Bank's Terrible Track-Record
    It’s “Embarrassing” – Aussie Govt Probes Central Bank’s Terrible Track-Record

    In a stunning admission in this age of delusion, the Australian government has launched a probe into the central bank’s dismal forecasting and policy track record.

    As The FT reports, the review comes after the institution was heavily criticized for delaying interest-rate hikes despite soaring, and persistent, inflation.

    The RBA came under fierce criticism after it was forced into a U-turn three months ago when soaring inflation shredded its dovish policy stance.

    Australia’s treasurer Jim Chalmers said the review would consider the performance of the central bank, its board composition and its inflation targeting strategy.

    “We face a complex and changing economic environment, and now is the right time to ensure we’ve got the world’s best, the most effective central bank,” Chalmers told Australia’s public broadcaster ABC on Wednesday.

    In fact, Philip Lowe, RBA governor, admitted in May that the central bank’s forecasting had been “embarrassing” given it had indicated that it would keep rates as low as possible until 2024.

    “We should forecast this better. We didn’t,” he said.

    Additionally, Lowe acknowledged the reputational damage from the “disorderly” exit from yield control.

    The review will consider how the RBA reacts during times of crisis when monetary policy moves are limited.

    “The outlines of the review encompassing its governance, culture and recruitment processes are quite broad, and certainly broader than the recent reviews undertaken at the Fed and the ECB,” said Alvin Tan, the head of Asia currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Singapore.

    “The outcome of the exercise could be more important on the governance and culture aspects rather than the inflation goal.”

    The final report and recommendations, due by March 2023, will also come just six months before Lowe’s seven-year term expires.

    How long before a similar probe is unleashed on The Fed’s “embarrassing” track record… or worse still The ECB or BoJ’s?

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 18:40

  • Pennsylvania Prohibits 'Zuck Bucks' Ahead Of 2022 Midterms
    Pennsylvania Prohibits ‘Zuck Bucks’ Ahead Of 2022 Midterms

    Authored by Rita Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Pennsylvania has banned public officials from receiving and using private election grants, including those from nonprofits, in a bid to boost election integrity by reducing outside influence.

    Facebook founder, Chairman, and CEO Mark Zuckerberg testifies before the House Energy and Commerce Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington on April 11, 2018. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

    As of July 2022, over 20 states have passed laws banning or restricting public officials’ use of unregulated third-party monies when conducting elections. It comes after conservative analysts ​​contend that such funds—dubbed “Zuck Bucks”—were allegedly strategic in their placement in swing states, beefing up vote totals in 2020 for then-presidential candidate Joe Biden to eventually win the election.

    Election offices across Pennsylvania received more than $25 million in “Zuck Bucks” grants during the 2020 election cycle, according to data released by Capital Research Center.

    Democrat Gov. Tom Wolf signed into law Senate Bill 982 (pdf) on July 11 mandating that public officials of state and local governments “may not solicit, apply for, enter into a contract for or receive or expend gifts, donations, grants or funding from any individual, business, organization, trust, foundation, or any nongovernmental entity for the registration of voters or the preparation, administration or conduction of an election in this commonwealth,” as per the new election integrity legislation.

    “For us, reform begins with prohibiting private groups from funding election administration,” the bill’s primary sponsor state Sen. Lisa Baker said in a statement issued upon the law’s passage. She called the amendments “substantial structural improvements.”

    “No matter who on the outside is contributing, no matter their expressed motivations,” Baker said, “millions of dollars coming in from national figures or organizations naturally raises suspicions of hidden agendas.”

    Instead, the bill introduces a brand new “election integrity grant program,” wherein the state’s Department of Community and Economic Development is permitted to provide $45 million each year—or $5.15 per registered voter—to reimburse counties.

    Yet it limits the circumstances for use of the grants, such as “payment of staff needed to pre-canvass and canvass mail-in ballots and absentee ballots” and “physical security and transparency costs for centralized pre-canvassing and canvassing.”

    The total amount of the grants will be determined based on the population of registered voters in the previous primary election. To qualify for the state deal, counties are required to open and count ballots from 7 a.m. on Election Day, which doesn’t allow counties to process mail-in ballots ahead of Election Day.

    Counties can submit applications between Aug. 1 and Aug. 15.

    Third-Party Grants

    A Mark Zuckerberg-funded activist group, the Chicago nonprofit Center for Tech and Civic Life (CTCL), flooded election offices largely in Democratic Party strongholds with hundreds of millions of dollars in 2020, which experts have seen as an apparent effort to drive up voter turnout for that party.

    The billionaire Facebook founder, along with his wife, Priscilla Chan, donated $350 million to CTCL to fund local election offices nationally, calling them “COVID-19 response grants.” The money was advertised as a resource to buy personal protective equipment and reduce the spread of the coronavirus—yet COVID-19 response turned out to be a fraction of the total expenditures.

    Researchers at the Capital Research Center, a Washington-based conservative non-profit organization, found that CTCL had given grants to 10 of the 13 counties Biden won in Pennsylvania, one of which—Erie County—flipped from Trump’s 2016 column.

    Together, these 10 counties received $20.8 million, or over 83 percent of all CTCL grants to Pennsylvania,” the report reads. “In contrast, CTCL gave grants to 12 of the 54 counties Trump won statewide. These 12 counties received just $1.73 million, a mere 7 percent of all CTCL funds in the Keystone state.”

    The five biggest grants per capita in CTCL-funded counties statewide all went to those that Biden won, the study shows.

    A spokesman for Facebook did not respond to a request for an interview.

    Zuckerberg commissioned a report in December, which emphasized that “more Republican jurisdictions, defined as municipalities that voted for Trump in 2020, applied for and received grants.” The conclusion was deemed misleading among some election data experts because Republican jurisdictions were far more likely to receive grants of less than $50,000, which would likely not be enough to materially change election practices in the recipient jurisdiction.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 18:20

  • US Fighter Jets Now Under Consideration For Ukraine: Air Force Chief
    US Fighter Jets Now Under Consideration For Ukraine: Air Force Chief

    For weeks there have been rumors and widespread reports that the United States is close to starting a formal training program for Ukrainian pilots in order to better combat superior Russian aerial forces. But amid the weapons bonanza being offered and shipped from Washington to Kiev, it was also reported that fighter jets were never on the table – not even from allies.

    This is particularly so after in March a proposal for Poland to send its own MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine, which Ukrainian pilots are already trained on, fell through in a bizarre and somewhat diplomatically embarrassing way, given Warsaw prematurely claimed the White House had agreed to replace its donated MiGs with F-16 jets. The Biden administration then rejected that any agreement was made, and the whole fighter jets for Ukraine initiative appeared shelved. But now fresh words from Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall have revived speculation the Biden administration is intensely mulling jet transfers

    Frank Kendall III, via Air Force Magazine

    “Despite previous reports to the contrary, the United States is indeed considering sending fighter jets to Ukraine and training their pilots how to fly them, Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall says,” reports Newsmax based on his revealing words before the Aspen Security Forum this week.

    He stressed that while the “right now problem” remains ground-based fighting particularly in the East, creating an urgent need for more artillery and heavy gun systems, Ukraine’s military will soon need better aerial assets to stave off Russia’s assault.

    “We’ll be open to discussions with them about what their requirements are and how we might be able to satisfy them,” Kendall said, before saying it remains “largely up to Ukraine” to decide what type of aircraft would meet its needs.

    “There are a number of international opportunities that are possible there,” he said. “Older US systems are a possibility” – he added while raising the possibility of A-10s, which have been in process of an off-and-on retirement under the Pentagon

    Currently, the draft National Defense Authorization Act just passed in the House authorizes up to $100 million to establish a Ukrainian pilot program to train on American aircraft (F-16s in particular), which is the biggest indicator yet the Biden administration could be poised to pull the trigger.

    Top US Air Force command seems to be on the same page on the issue, as Politico reports of separate statements this week:

    Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. C.Q. Brown hinted that the U.S. or one one of its allies may soon send fighter jets to Ukraine.

    “There’s U.S. [fighter jets], there’s Gripen out of Sweden, there’s the Eurofighter or the Rafale. So there’s a number of different platforms that could go to Ukraine,” he said…The Ukrainians are unlikely to get MiGs, he continued, because it’ll be hard to get parts from Russia. “It’ll be something non-Russian, I could probably tell you that. What I can’t do is tell you what it’s going to be,” he concluded.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Without doubt, Moscow would view this as a huge escalation, and a significant step toward fulfilling Zelensky’s ultra-provocative and risky request to “close the skies”. Already there are rumors that in some cases NATO operators themselves could be manning some of the more sophisticated longer range rocket systems recently sent to the Ukrainian battlefield. Might this one day be the case with allied aircraft issued to Kiev?

    It remains, however, that US-made jets would require a steep learning curve for Ukrainian pilots, possibly taking years to train on them – depending on the system. On this question, Air Force Secretary Kendall alluded to the possibility of accelerated training in the Wednesday remarks.

    Meanwhile, in fresh comments reported by The Wall Street Journal, President Zelensky has stressed the need for anti-air defense systems is more “more urgent” than ever amid increasing Russian reliance on long-range missiles. He also again asserted that Ukraine’s position is that it won’t negotiate with Moscow until the army has reclaimed all lost national territory. Anything less “will only prolong the war,” he stated.

    And speaking of the ongoing weapons bonanza, some of the latest headlines Friday:

    • BIDEN AUTHORIZES SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN TO DIRECT THE DRAWDOWN OF UP TO $175 MLN IN DEFENSE AID FOR UKRAINE -WHITE HOUSE
    • WHITE HOUSE SPOKESPERSON KIRBY: U.S. DEFENSE DEPT TO ANNOUNCE UKRAINE WILL GET UP TO 580 PHOENIX GHOST UAVS
    • WHITE HOUSE SPOKESPERSON KIRBY: TOTAL U.S. SECURITY ASSISTANCE FOR UKRAINE COMES TO $8.2 BLN

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 18:00

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Today’s News 22nd July 2022

  • ECB Raising Rates Is Europe's Last Chance To Avoid Ground Zero
    ECB Raising Rates Is Europe’s Last Chance To Avoid Ground Zero

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, n’ Guns blog,

    No matter what happens, as long as Davos feels they have control over US foreign policy they will continue to act as if everything is coming up roses for them as they trash the global economy.

    This is why I find the myriad attacks against a mostly clueless Joe Biden so interesting right now. Is there a Davos pivot in the offing or is this another signal that sovereigntist forces within the US power structure are gaining the upper hand?

    With that question in mind let’s put some context on recent European events and what they say about the global story unfolding in front of us.

    The ECB finally raised rates for the first time since 2011, bringing the deposit facility rate to 0.0%, because I guess it would be beneath ‘European values’ for banks to have to pay to borrow money stolen from savers.

    Some would be shocked (SHOCKED, I SAY!) that the ECB went up by 50 basis points (0.5%) today, but given the dramatic events in Italy just yesterday, how could they have really done otherwise without looking like the out of touch midwits they, in fact, are.

    They just lost their top man in Italy and it looks like the populist right is set to take power in a core EU country in a couple of months without any of the Davos poison pill legislation getting passed.

    Sound familiar? The same thing happened in the US last year and we’re now staring down the barrel of an historic wipeout of the Democrats in November’s mid-terms.

    This is a real, serious loss for Davos, as I outlined in last week’s article on Draghi’s first resignation attempt.

    But at the same time that the ECB raised interest rates, it also announced a new ‘without limit’ QE program called the Transmission Protection Instrument, because, as Zerohedge rightly points out, calling it “Italy specific QE sounds a little gauche.” I’d add it’s also against core European values like telling the truth.

    ECB President Christine Lagarde was in full control in trying to outline this new experiment in monetary policy, clearly now more “art than science,” to quote Lagarde from the Before Time, you know, last week.

    “We have everything under control,” has been the theme of all the headlines coming out of Europe this week. No matter the subject, even little things like the collapse of Mario Draghi’s Davos-backed government in Italy, can derail the European project.

    It’s all good, we just have to stay the course, be ‘data-driven,’ and not yield on Europe’s core values, which, at this point amount to, trusting the arsonists to run the fire department.

    To give you an idea of how deeply embedded this controlling idea is, earlier this week it was the statement from EU “Foreign Minister” Josep Borrell.  Europe, he said, must keep the pressure on Russia. It cannot “afford sanctions fatigue.”  It needs to keep pressuring Russia’s economy for the long haul. We must keep up the saturation bombing of Russia’s financial system no matter how many of those bombs land in Rome, Athens or Berlin rather than Moscow.

    The unstated goal of these sanctions is to keep advanced technology out of Russia’s hands to domestically produce the weapons it will need to fight off NATO, not next month, but next year or in 2024.

    This is a long term plan.  In an episode of RT’s Crosstalk I taped earlier in the week, host Peter Lavelle brought up the Biden Administration quotes about this being a 20-year war against Russia and/or China.

    Pompeo’s “Three Lighthouses” speech was the same conclusion; a generation of Americans are going to have to fight a holy war against the East for control over global energy. Too bad no one wants to sign up to join, Mike.

    They only have the existing plan and they were put in place to execute it, even if others counter it effectively. Biden is also on the same script, but he’ll be gone soon because he’s no longer a credible messenger. Then we’ll bring in Kamala “We Gathered here, because here is where we are gathered” Harris to be the Moron-in-Chief at the White House.

    Because, they remind us constantly, those uncouth Yanks can’t be allowed to run anything.

    With that in mind, look at what else the EU put out this week:

    When’s the last time you saw any set of economic indicators come in perfectly in line with expectations like this? Seriously? This would be the first forecast by a European agency that they ever got right?

    Moreover, if this is true, why did this CPI print push the ECB to raise rates by 50 bps versus 25 bps? I mean, they expected this CPI print, right? So shouldn’t they have been communicating 50 bps the entire time?

    There is logic and then there is the E.C.B.

    It’s just a desperate narrative to keep up appearances they have everything under control, that they are on top of the economic situation and there is no reason for anyone to panic.

    Because panic, or ‘unwanted and unwarranted’ (Lagarde’s words) changes in credit spreads will prompt the use of the TPI to keep the Central Bank That Davos Built from going bankrupt.

    For the EU however, the clock is ticking down fast. It’s the Fed’s turn next week and with this 50 bps raise, you almost have to expect 100 bps from Powell.

    Remember that Eurocrats like Borrell and Lagarde have no Plan B (but maybe a Plan R, sadly).  

    Reversals of Fortunes

    I invoked Dr. Strangelove here for a reason.  Watch the movie again structurally, note the myriad of ‘reversals’ in it. It’s a marvel of screenwriting.  It shows you how clever humans are when they are single-minded in overcome obstacles to completing a task, operating as if the false is true.

    There is no better metaphor for the current state of capital markets and political warfare than that.

    I talk about reversals all the time in technical analysis of markets, but it’s an idea that is embedded deeply in storytelling.  The first key to writing a great screenplay is knowing every scene has to have a ‘reversal of value.’   

    A reversal of value can be as simple as a cold person finding a hat, to a poor person finding a suitcase full of money.

    The scene, no matter how small, has a controlling idea.  That controlling idea has to change a value in some way or the scene has no purpose.

    Good editors leave them out. Studios put them back in to sell ‘Director’s Cuts’ on Blu-Ray.

    The EU is all about Director’s Cuts of unwatchable French ‘Cinema.’

    Reversals are important, they create and release tension.  Good writing constantly builds up small reversals to set the stage for larger ones (Scene Arcs) which impact bigger ones (Acts) and so on.  

    The Eurocrats and Davos don’t believe in reversals.  They believe in inevitability and if they can just ‘stay on script’ no matter the complication which has negated their plan, they can still get to the finish line and win.  

    This is what happened at the ECB’s pivotal meeting this week. They are staying the course. 2% inflation is the goal. Lagarde dropped all forecasts and talk of inflation being ‘transitory.’ Even though circumstances have reversed against them and they finally admitted it publicly, they won’t give up the overall narrative that everything is fine.

    Europe’s values can only be expressed through the EU and therefore anything to save the EU saves European values. Maybe Kamala can crib from that one.

    Thank the gods we uncouth Yanks left those European values behind, only to have them constantly try and impose them on us at every turn.

    To many investors the Fed had their pivotal meeting last month when they raised 75 bps, but that reversal of Fed policy was only in their minds. In fact, as I’ve been saying for more than a year now, the Fed’s pivotal meeting wasn’t this past June but the one from June 2021, when ‘stealth tightening’ through reverse repo payouts began.

    That set in motion as series of complications for the ECB and Davos which have been piling up like those thrown in front of the people trying to stop Armageddon in Dr. Strangelove. The ECB finally realizes that there is nothing to do now but to accept the smoking ruin and face reality.

    Stay on Target. Stay on TARGET

    What we are seeing in the markets this week after the euro briefly broke parity with the US dollar is the predictable bounce which comes after a major scene arc was completed. The euro hit $1.03 and no further.

    But it’s just that, a bounce, a brief comic interlude to release the tension.  

    Lagarde’s performance was her admission of a ‘credit-spread gap’ that is now unbridgeable. Italy’s debt is headed towards oblivion and the ECB just said they will spend every euro of German savings to avoid that for as long as possible.

    So, we have this idea that the ECB is on top of everything. But, what about the war in Ukraine? What about the EU’s future?

    The next headline is just as much of a stunner, in the face of a fracturing EU and Mario Draghi’s tenuous hold on power in Italy: EU Starts membership talks with Albania, North Macedonia

    Translation: Don’t worry, the EU is healthy and everyone wants to be a member.  We will only grow stronger, not weaker.  We will absorb all of Europe, claim NATO from the Americans, force them to fight China while we starve Russia. 

    This is fine. 

    This is all part of the script.  But, it’s clearly not.  

    This is what they want us in the West to see, what we’re only allowed to find in internet searches. Meanwhile, the Russians tell you what Europe is really doing, namely lifting sanctions and desperately trying to get the energy and food it needs to stay one step ahead of the hangmen outside of parliaments all across the ‘civilized world.’

    The truth is, for the first time in a very long time, Davos is not calling the shots for the entire West.   Italy’s government is gone because the populists were told they have US backing to end Draghi’s reign of terror.

    Certified Ph.D. in Geography Liz Truss has even odds of becoming the next UK Prime Minister to keep US control over City of London strong and the UK in the game.

    Canada raised rates by 1% the other day, prompting comments about it having to follow, if not one-up, the Fed.  Clearly, the Canadian banks have had enough of Justin TrueDOH! and his Ukrainian Fifth Columnist, Davos chick Chrystia Freeland.

    And next week, the Fed will raise the stakes again on Lagarde regardless of what she said today.  TPI is unusable garbage which traders will front-run her into oblivion over. If she wants to know what that feels like maybe she should talk with Kuroda over at the Bank of Japan rather than her data-driven experts in Brussels.

    My last point is the one so many people do NOT want to hear, but better consider very carefully. Anti-American commentators do not understand what is happening.  

    They cannot wrap their brains around the idea that there are forces within the US hierarchy who see the Imperial Trap for what it is and that if it continues it will be the end of the US. That the Fed is facing an existential threat to its survival and that they have far more wiggle room than they think.

    Maybe, just maybe, the giants are fighting and we ants have a hard time distinguishing between not only who’s winning but whose footsteps we should avoid.

    At some point the whole illusion will come crashing down.  Europe is the old whore who still thinks she’s a hot twentysomething.  The Fed is the guy at the bar who’d rather drink alone.

    One only has to really look at the image Lagarde and EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen project to the world to see exactly what I’m talking about. Thank the gods Merkel left the scene.

    These ladies will stay on script while riding the bomb to ground zero thinking they have dance partners the entire time.

    *  *  *

    Join my Patreon if you hate bombshells

    Tyler Durden
    Fri, 07/22/2022 – 02:00

  • Fauci, Other US Officials Served In Lawsuit Over Alleged Collusion To Suppress Free Speech
    Fauci, Other US Officials Served In Lawsuit Over Alleged Collusion To Suppress Free Speech

    Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, and other top Biden administration officials have been served with discovery requests after a federal judge ordered the administration to comply with discovery requests stemming from a lawsuit alleging government collusion with Big Tech.

    Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, speaks in Washington on May 11, 2022. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

    The lawsuit accuses government officials of working with Twitter and other major social media networks to suppress truthful information on multiple topics, including COVID-19.

    One example outlined is how Fauci, the longtime head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, held a secret meeting with scientists who soon after tried to discredit the theory that the virus that causes COVID-19 came from a Chinese laboratory. At the same time, Fauci, who has repeatedly cast doubt on the so-called lab leak theory and whose agency funded research at the lab in Wuhan, was exchanging messages with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg on how COVID-19 information on social media was handled.

    Fauci was told in the request to identify every worker in his agency who has or is communicating with a social media platform regarding content modulation and/or misinformation, to identify all such communications he had, and to identify all meetings he had on the matter with social media platforms.

    He was also asked to provide all communications with Zuckerberg from Jan. 1, 2020, to the present, and all communications with platforms related to the Great Barrington Declaration, the COVID-19 strategy authored by Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorff, and Dr. Sunetra Gupta that Fauci and his former boss, Dr. Francis Collins, criticized publicly and in private.

    Discovery requests were also sent to White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre; former Disinformation Governance Board chief Nina Jankowicz; Jen Easterly, director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; and agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Homeland Security.

    Subpoenas

    Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, the plaintiffs in the suit, also served subpoenas to Meta, Facebook’s parent company; YouTube; Twitter; Instagram; and LinkedIn.

    The subpoena compels the platforms to provide documents before Aug. 17, including all communications with Jankowicz and other federal officials.

    The documents reference how Jen Psaki, Jean-Pierre’s predecessor, told a briefing in July 2021 that officials are “in regular touch with these social media platforms” and that “we’re flagging problematic posts for Facebook that spread disinformation.”

    “We will fight to get to the bottom of this alleged collusion and expose the suppression of freedom of speech by social media giants at the behest of top-ranking government officials,” Schmitt, a Republican, said in a statement.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 23:55

  • "Putin Entirely Too Healthy," Says CIA Director After Rumors He Was Dying
    “Putin Entirely Too Healthy,” Says CIA Director After Rumors He Was Dying

    Breathless reports speculating on Vladimir Putin’s “poor health” seem to have become a a bi-monthly exercise since the Russian invasion of Ukraine kicked off. Among the more recent and widely reported supposed health scares was an alleged Cancer diagnosis and treatment in April, based on anonymous sources who say they are in the know, but also based in part on the Russian leader’s “dramatically changed appearance” – according to some Western reports.

    But time and again what ends up being pure sensationalized “rumor” and educated guesses or speculation at best doesn’t pan out. There’s nothing ever presented in the way of evidence, or any official confirmation from the Kremlin or anyone actually close to Putin.

    In the opening month of the war, there were even rumors that Putin was “dying” – and that this figured into his rationale of risking so much politically in ordering the Ukraine invasion. The idea was that a Putin getting close to the end was a more dangerous and unpredictable leader.

    But some significant level of confirmation did come this week from someone who might be in the know based on the high-level intelligence he’s privy to. CIA Director William Burns discussed the matter at the Aspen Security Forum on Wednesday, saying there’s as yet no intelligence indicating Putin is in bad health

    Burns told the audience at the annual event that it turns out the Russian president is “entirely too healthy.” Per the BBC, Burns explained, “There are lots of rumors about President Putin’s health, and as far as we can tell, he’s entirely too healthy,” Burns said.

    But the CIA director, who was previously US ambassador to Moscow, added the important caveat that his comment was “not a formal intelligence judgment.”

    And yet it’s also consistent with the official UK assessment on the matter. UK Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said at the start of this week that all the talk of Putin’s failing health remains merely “wishful thinking.” He noted too that he’s not at risk of “assassination” either.

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    The Kremlin has taken the opportunity to clarify amid the Western commentary on Putin’s health, with Russian Presidency spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying in a press briefing Thursday that “In recent months, Ukrainian, American, and British so-called information ‘specialists’ have thrown around various fakes about the health of the president. But it is nothing but fakes.”

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 23:35

  • The Hypocrisy Of Elites
    The Hypocrisy Of Elites

    Authored by Erik Torenberg via Ideas & Musings,

    Recently we discussed why the masses adopt redistribution/egalitarianism — because it means more status and money for them.

    This week we’re going to discuss why the elites adopt redistribution/egalitarianism, since, after all, aren’t they the ones losing something by redistributing? Why then, do they unequivocally endorse giving away money and status? What’s in it for them? 

    Well. There’s one school of thought that says it’s a cynical ploy to prevent blowback from the masses. If the elites weren’t advocating for egalitarianism, they’d be unpopular with the masses and would be at risk of rebellions. In that way, redistribution can be seen as a tax they pay to keep their power.

    An even more cynical take is that the elites’ virtue signaling allows them to be seen as morally good without having to sacrifice much in terms of business interests. Corporations embraced the social causes of the last few years, but they didn’t embrace Occupy Wall Street. It’s easy for JP Morgan to promote diversity since diversity should only make JP Morgan richer. Occupy Wall Street, though, was asking for significant taxes on JP Morgan. JP Morgan didn’t like that kind of social progress — not one bit. 

    There’s likely truth to the idea that promoting this certain kind of egalitarianism is a way for elites to have air cover against a populist uprising — but this doesn’t do justice to the fact that many elites are, in fact, true believers. 

    As we’ve discussed, ever since Christianity we’ve conceived moral good to be valorization of the victim. We’ve since shed the theological roots of Christianity, but kept the same superstructure that redistributes status to the less well-off. When you see ambitious philanthropic projects started and funded by our ruling class, you can’t help but think much of it has good intentions. (What’s the Road to Hell paved with again?)

    Another theory holds that promoting egalitarianism is just another way elites compete amongst each other. That it’s just another status game.

    We recently discussed Rob Henderson’s Luxury Beliefs, the idea being that if people buy expensive luxury goods to showcase how well-off they are, people also hold “expensive” beliefs for the same reason. 

    This idea is not new: Jared Diamond has suggested one reason people engage in displays such as drinking, smoking, drug use, and other costly behaviors is because they serve as fitness indicators. The message is: “I’m so healthy I can afford to poison my body and continue to function.”

    Saying, “I’m willing to redistribute my money and status” is a costly but effective way of signaling, “I’m so secure in my status and money that I can afford giving it away, seeing as I have a surplus of both.”

    Consider the phrase “Defund the police” as an example — a call back to a previous post. This phrase was popularized by highly-educated elites who will almost certainly not move to areas that suffer from high crime and a defunded police force. Regardless, the phrase has been adopted by a broader set of people — including those in high-crime areas who don’t have the means to hire security or move somewhere safer.

    Why are high status people more likely to propagate luxury beliefs? Because they can afford it. And ironically, the highest status people are the most insecure about maintaining their status.

    Another irony is that redistribution is always an aristocratic thing. Aristocrats want it even more than the peasants. People assume that conditions are economic, but nearly all social movements are led by the rich. (Fidel Castro went to college and wore two Rolexes).

    This is what being an elite is about, after all. It’s not about money, although money plays a crucial role. It’s not even about education, though education plays a large role as well. It’s more about the set of behaviors and dispositions that indicate a person to be a member of the elite — which center around wanting to change the world. Recall we discussed the leveling and importance game: Wanting to change the world hits the sweet spot because it shows how important one is (you can afford worrying about the planet and not your rent), while also highlighting one’s empathy (wanting to take care of the less fortunate).

    Which is the whole point of being an elite. It’s what separates a person from simply being a bourgeois. Aristocrats want to *matter*. Bourgeoisie just want comfort and safety. Meanwhile proletariats just want to put food on the table.

    It’s worth noting, however, that the elites have evolved in one key respect: our elites are in denial that they’re elite. 100% of our present aristocratic oligarchs think aristocracy is evil and that they personally are fighting for the little people.

    Pareto called this the aristocracy of lions vs the aristocracy of foxes. Lions are proud, forceful aristocrats who explicitly own their position as leaders. Foxes, however, are humble servants who will forever deny that they’re in charge. While lions want to run the world, foxes want to save the world. 

    Ultimately, though, the egalitarianism of the elite is hollow.

    People want egalitarianism when they’re being selected, but they’re elitist when they’re doing the selecting.

    When people seek a job, partner, or doctor, they do not seek the average job, partner, or doctor — they seek the best.

    This is the ultimate luxury belief: wanting average for everyone else while wanting the best for ourselves. We see this everywhere: Elites advocate for public schools that disavow gifted programs for the poor while simultaneously sending their own kids to fancy private schools with gifted programs galore. Elites advocate for defunding the police while living in gated communities with private security. Elites throw a fit about getting homeless people off the streets, while moving to neighborhoods where they will never see any homeless people. 

    Not only do they advocate for egalitarianism for others while pursuing elitism for themselves, elites also recommend practices for others that they themselves don’t follow. This isn’t just hypocrisy; it’s pulling up the ladder.

    Rob Henderson quotes a study that showed that individuals with higher income and/or social status were the most likely to say that success comes as a result of luck and connections as opposed to hard work. Meanwhile, low-income individuals were much more likely to say success comes as a result of hard work and individual effort. 

    “This is where the hypocrisy comes in: affluent people often broadcast how they owe their success to luck. But then they tell their own children about the importance of hard work and individual effort.”

    Again, we see this everywhere: elites promote body positivity — the idea that being overweight is healthy — while being most obsessed with maintaining perfect health. Elites promote sexual independence and polyamory, yet themselves are most likely to be monogamous in stable long-term relationships. Elites complain about overpopulation and carbon footprint, but they’re the ones having the most kids and inflicting the largest carbon footprint. The Last Contrarian twitter account summarizes this well.

    Harvard is a great example of this hypocrisy. Harvard considers itself at the forefront of promoting social progress and egalitarianism. They invented schools of thought such as Critical Race Theory.

    And yet, Harvard is the ultimate engine of inequality — by design. Harvard has the best brand in the world, with a 40 billion endowment to boot. If it wanted to, Harvard could expand its class size by several orders of magnitude in order to give a more egalitarian education for all. But Harvard doesn’t want to do that. It just wants to talk about equality. After all, the school literally advertises its low acceptance rates.

    And yet, Harvard is willing to critique an entity like Amazon, which by comparison employs millions more people (compared to Harvard’s 1,000 people), and serves billions of people. 

    So we see a pattern: elite egalitarianism doesn’t practice what it preaches. It’s also actually counter-productive, since elites are insulated from the area they’re trying to help and thus have neither knowledge of the problem nor skin in the game.

    One example of this can be seen in public housing in the 1960s in places like Chicago and New York. Public housing at the time was designed by elites who didn’t have any skin in the game — they were never going to live there. Because of this, they destroyed the natural ecologies of low income housing and replaced them with housing projects that may have caused more harm than good.

    Yet again, we see this everywhere. Elites recommend dysfunctional behaviors and counterproductive policies for poor people while being precisely the ones most insulated from any and all consequences of such behaviors and policies.

    The tragedy of luxury beliefs is that, since they’re free, and since the non-elites aspire to eliteness, the beliefs themselves trickle down to the masses who can’t “afford” them. It’d be as if the masses bought a ton of expensive luxury products they didn’t need and became saddled with credit card debt. And since being high status means avoiding what the masses are doing, as soon as the masses adopt the luxury beliefs, the elites drop them. So elites accrue the short-term status benefit while the masses get hit with the long-term debt.

    And luxury beliefs are far more costly and dangerous than credit card debt — beliefs like polyamory is better. Marriage is sexist. Family is oppressive. Religion is bad. Fitness is fascist. Having kids is bad for the planet. Hard work isn’t needed to be successful. Success itself is an illness. Rationality, punctuality, and urgency are white supremacist values.

    And yet, what do elites do? Work hard, work out, get married to one partner, have kids, and teach them the opposite of what they recommend to the masses.

    This is the hypocrisy of the elites.

    Subscribe here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 23:15

  • Goldman: Some Noteworthy Clients Are Starting To Buy Throughout The Day
    Goldman: Some Noteworthy Clients Are Starting To Buy Throughout The Day

    Earlier today, we wrote that according to the Goldman flow desk, “most clients were hating this rally“, sentiment which Nomura’s Charlie McElligott picked up on later in the day when he wrote that the risk over the near term is a “further pile-on to the crowd who has expected another surge lower in stocks, instead squeezing their shorts and accelerating the enormous Systematic buying already going through as CTAs cover and flip long.”

    Well, it appears that the most steadfast bears – who are recently capitulated bulls, and who according to the latest BofA Fund Manager Survey, are now the most pessimistic on record – are starting to capitulate yet again, this time calling a bottom to stocks, and are starting to buy. Indeed, as Goldman flow trader John Flood writes in his end of day wrap, “some noteworthy long-only clients have now started to passively buy on our desk throughout the day (velocity picked up this afternoon as mkt moved higher)” adding that “executed flow across US equities franchise had +338bp buy skew vs 30d avg of -30bp sell skew. L/Os buy skew +9.8% was highest here since since 6/30.”

    Translation: it is possible that this bear market rally is about to transform into something more sustainable, and as more whales join the buying parade, the train may soon leave the station. That said, as Flood writes it will be interesting to see if this “long-only” momentum will sustain into Friday post “a slew of relatively disappointing earnings” post close, from companies such as SNAP, COF, CRSR, SAM, SIVB, STX.

    We excerpt from his note below; the full pdf available to pro subscribers in the usual place.

    Our desk was a 6 on 1 – 10 scale today. 3 More intraday blocks + CCL primary raise as institutions take advantage of surprise move higher in tape this week. Client demand for these blocks remains strong on our desk. Leading thematics today were China Exposure (GSCBCHSE) +196bps, Secular Growth (GSXUSGRO) +194bps, High Retail Sentiment (GSCBHRSB) +186bps.

    Some noteworthy L/O clients have now started to passively buy on our desk throughout the day (velocity picked up this afternoon as mkt moved higher). Executed flow across US equities franchise had +338bp buy skew vs 30d avg of -30bp sell skew. L/Os buy skew +9.8% was highest here since since 6/30. Demand concentrated in cons disc and materials. Will be interesting to see if this L/O demand back tomorrow post a slew of relatively disappointing earnings post close: SNAP, COF, CRSR, SAM, SIVB, STX, etc.

    SNAP (first take) -20% … Guiding Q3 revenue growth “thus far” this quarter to Flat YoY (Cons for full qtr Q3 growth was +18% y/y). Not giving full Q3 financial guidance.

    Gas prices in the US have moved down to $4.44/gallon (national average), 58 cents below their all-time high in mid-June.
    SLG (NYC’s largest commercial real estate landlord): “Tenant demand is shifting as some of the big technology tenants which expanded rapidly have pulled back as they adapt to new workforce patterns.”

    The ECB went big for its first rate hike in over a decade. It defied consensus with a 50 bp increase that ended the era of negative rates to tackle inflation Christine Lagarde said will remain “undesirably high for some time.” It also unveiled a crisis tool called the Transmission Protection Instrument. All countries are eligible and the plan received unanimous backing, though Lagarde said nations need sound macro policies and to comply with EU debt rules. Traders are now betting on 60 bps of increases in September. The euro erased earlier gains as she spoke, and yields came off some earlier highs, with some traders criticizing Lagarde for a lack of details during the presser.

    Finally, some humor from the Goldman trading desk:

    Joe Biden contracted Covid-19, has mild symptoms, and will isolate in the White House while continuing to work. The 79-year-old president has a runny nose, fatigue and an occasional dry cough, and has begun taking Paxlovid to treat the disease, according to a letter from his physician. Biden’s illness comes after a five-day trip to the Middle East during which he made few efforts to avoid infection.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 22:55

  • Putin Calls Saudi Crown Prince To Discuss Oil Market, OPEC+
    Putin Calls Saudi Crown Prince To Discuss Oil Market, OPEC+

    By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

    Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone conversation with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to discuss the oil market and OPEC+.

    The two parties also made a note of the importance of collaboration within OPEC+, adding that OPEC+ members have consistently fulfilled their obligations to maintain market balance and stability in the energy markets.

    OPEC+ has consistently failed to meet its production targets over the duration of the deal. In June, OPEC+–a group that includes both Russia and Saudi Arabia—increased its oil production by 390,000 bpd, but most members failed to meet their production targets. OPEC’s share of the increase for June was 210,000 bpd, while non-OPEC members part of the OPEC+ group increased production by 180,000 bpd, according to a recent Platts survey.

    Overall, this was still more than 2.5 million bpd under the quota for the full OPEC+ group.

    Russia and Saudi Arabia—the two largest producers within OPEC+–saw the biggest production gains in June.

    While the group has fallen short of production targets, OPEC continues to insist that the market is in balance. Saudi Arabia has long maintained that it can do nothing beyond what it is already doing to help the oil market, and that the market is far more complex than merely pumping additional barrels of oil.

    That hasn’t stopped President Joe Biden from repeatedly asking the group to increase its oil production to alleviate the high pump prices in the United States. While U.S. gasoline prices have eased over the last month to $4.44, they remain $1.278 above last year’s levels, according to AAA data.

    The phone call is just the latest in a series of calls between Saudi Arabia and Russia, even after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 22:35

  • Rep. Lee Zeldin Attacked On Stage By Knife-Wielding Assailant
    Rep. Lee Zeldin Attacked On Stage By Knife-Wielding Assailant

    Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY) was attacked by a man with a blade on Thursday evening during a campaign stop in Fairport, NY, near Rochester, WROC reports.

    Zeldin, the NY Republican gubernatorial candidate, was giving a speech about bail reform when a man walked on stage, began yelling, “wrestled with him a bit, and pulled a blade out,” before AMVETS national Director Joe Chenelly stopped him.

    According to a statement from Zeldin’s campaign, “a man climbed on stage and attempted to stab Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-NY) … Congressman Zeldin grabbed the attacker’s wrist to stop him until several others assisted in taking the attacker down to the ground.”

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    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 22:15

  • Border Crisis Contributed To Botched Response To Uvalde School Massacre: Report
    Border Crisis Contributed To Botched Response To Uvalde School Massacre: Report

    Authored by Charlotte Cuthbertson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    The school in which 19 children and two teachers were massacred on May 24, had been in lockdown four times in the month prior to the shooting, said Uvalde Mayor Don McLaughlin.

    A tower in the city of Uvalde, Texas, on June 21, 2022. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

    Schools in the whole district had been in lockdown mode 47 times since February due to the border crisis spilling into the city, which is a smuggling corridor from the U.S.–Mexico border to San Antonio, a recent Texas House of Representatives report stated.

    Ninety percent of the lockdowns were due to law enforcement chases of suspected smuggling vehicles through Uvalde and subsequent bailouts—where the driver crashes or stops the vehicle and occupants jump out and scatter from law enforcement, the report said.

    The sheer increase in bailouts over the past 18 months and the subsequent lockdowns “contributed to a diminished sense of vigilance about responding to security alerts,” the Texas House report states.

    “The series of bailout-related alerts led teachers and administrators to respond to all alerts with less urgency—when they heard the sound of an alert, many assumed that it was another bailout.”

    Kenneth Mueller, director of student services for the Uvalde Consolidated Independent School District (CISD) testified to the committee that parents became so concerned about the number of bailouts occurring near the elementary-school campuses that they offered to hire off-duty police to supplement the Uvalde CISD police presence.

    A banner hangs on a fence outside Robb Elementary School, the site of a mass shooting on May 24, in Uvalde, Texas, on June 21, 2022. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

    Two months after the deadly massacre at Robb Elementary School, the school district is preparing for the beginning of a new year. But the Texas House review of law enforcement’s response to the May 24 shooting revealed a series of alarming failures by first responders. As a result, parents aren’t ready to send their kids back to a district they say is unsafe and where security problems remain unremedied.

    “We’re 30 days from school starting and we’re having pursuits come through. We’re having bailouts—we had one this morning in Uvalde,” McLaughlin told The Epoch Times on July 12.

    “And what’s going to happen when we have a bailout right by school and it has to go into lockdown? How much panic is there going to be? How much trauma is that going to cause these kids? A ton.”

    Parents of children who were slain in the shooting have told the mayor they’re considering homeschooling their other children.

    “I said I understand, but I can promise you from the city’s standpoint, we will do everything that we can to make sure your kids are safe,” McLaughlin said he told concerned parents.

    The mayor has requested additional state troopers to be deployed to Uvalde for the first two weeks of the school year.

    When asked if he thought some sort of “lockdown fatigue” existed at schools prior to the massacre, McLaughlin said, “I would think there would be, but I can’t speak for the school district.”

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 22:00

  • Rockaway Beach Shut Down Due To Shark Sightings Amidst Week Long Heat Wave
    Rockaway Beach Shut Down Due To Shark Sightings Amidst Week Long Heat Wave

    Sharks were spotted at Rockaway Beach this week, causing the New York Police Department to shut down all of the beaches.

    “ALL of the Rockaway beaches are currently closed for swimming due to shark sitings [sic] until further notice. The boardwalk is still OPEN!,” the New York Police Department’s 100th Precinct tweeted mid-week. 

    The New York City Department of Parks and Recreation confirmed the shutdown to Bloomberg, who reported that the New York Police Department was doing flyovers during the week looking for shark threats.

    The NYPD said beaches will reopen when it is “safe to do so”. 

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    The beaches have been on edge since a number of shark attacks, including ones against “a tourist, a surfer and a lifeguard,” according to the report

    New York Governor Kathy Hochul has ordered an increased lifeguard presence, patrols and aerial surveillance, and the state also plans on increasing drone capacity and deploying patrol boats to search the water. 

    Hocul said: “As New Yorkers and visitors alike head to our beautiful Long Island beaches to enjoy the summer, our top priority is their safety. We are taking action to expand patrols for sharks and protect beachgoers from potentially dangerous situations.”

    Meanwhile, like with every other profession, there has been a shortage of lifeguards in New York City. The lifeguard union struck a new deal with the city to raise starting wages to $19.46 an hour.

    Meanwhile, the week long heat wave on the east coast continues…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 21:40

  • Antifa Summer Camp In Portland Teaches Anarchy To Children
    Antifa Summer Camp In Portland Teaches Anarchy To Children

    Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    A summer camp in Portland, Oregon, is offering children the opportunity to become budding social justice warriors (SJW) while “reflecting on white supremacy” and learning Black Lives Matter (BLM) chants about putting “killer cops in jail.”

    Unidentified Rose City Antifa members beat up Andy Ngo, a Portland-based journalist, in Portland, Oregon on June 29, 2019. (Moriah Ratner/Getty Images)

    The Budding Roses camp in August for fourth through eighth graders is a project of the Black Rose Anarchist Federation, a political organization promoting the tenets of anarchy that some would argue led to the Portland riots of 2020.

    In June 2021, the Portland Police Association issued a press release announcing that the Portland Police Bureau Rapid Response Team resigned from their voluntary positions due to the “political venom” of local politicians who not only failed to support but demonized the team during the Portland riots that began in 2020 and continued through 2021.

    The resignation is a step toward what Budding Roses teaches children in the chant, “Cops and borders, We don’t need them.”

    As with many SJW goals, the camp’s curriculum appears to be inflicting children with race obsession and graphic sexual concepts, as can be seen in a BLM coloring book espousing transgender affirmation and in a chant that compares the government to a rapist.

    It’s the state that’s our oppressor, It’s the rapist government,” the chant reads.

    The camp also has a class on “Why Writing People in Prisons and Jails Matters” to instruct children on writing to incarcerated felons.

    “Letter writing with incarcerated people encompasses our commitment to change, and the intersection of our priorities,” it says. “In order to fight for prison abolition, we must connect with and advocate for those most impacted by the prison industrial complex.”

    In its “Tear Gas for Portlanders” class, a drawing of a person in Antifa garb who introduces himself as “your friendly neighborhood anti-fascist” gives a lecture on tear gas, how it’s made, where it has been used, how much the city of Portland has spent on it, and why it shouldn’t be used.

    According to the class, tear gas is another tool in the box of what it describes as a racist police force.

    As first reported in PJ Media, in 2018, the city of Portland awarded Budding Roses the Spirit of Portland Award for nonprofit initiative of the year; however, the recipients of the award who were there to accept it expressed ingratitude.

    “As Budding Roses, our goal is to empower the voices of youth, especially those most affected by white supremacy and patriarchy, and we strive to embody in all our work that power comes not from authority, but from below,” the recipient said. “Unfortunately, we find it ironic to be presented this award from a city that doesn’t seem to share these values, given its history of using police violence against anti-racist activists while shielding racist demonstrators, and most recently a proposal by Mayor Ted Wheeler to enforce a restrictive protest policy.”

    The city of Portland, Budding Roses, and the Black Rose Anarchist Federation didn’t respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 21:20

  • Polio Detected In New York, First US Case Since 2013
    Polio Detected In New York, First US Case Since 2013

    New York state health officials alerted Rockland County residents about a confirmed polio case on Thursday. The last naturally occurring case of polio in the U.S. was in 1979. Health officials believe this case might have originated from outside the U.S., which would be the first since 2013. 

    The New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) and the Rockland County Department of Health advised hospitals in the state to be extra vigilant for additional cases. Polio is a viral disease and once the nation’s most feared sickness in the 1950s, which caused neurological symptoms, paralysis, or death and has been eradicated since 1979. 

    The iconic photo of an infected child with polio in an iron lung mechanical respirator. 

    NYSDOH believes the infected person (still no details about the individual’s age or if they traveled outside of the country) has a vaccine-derived strain of the virus and got it from someone outside the country. The person is also unvaccinated against polio, NYTimes confirmed. 

    In this case, sequencing performed by the Wadsworth Center – NYSDOH’s public health laboratory – and confirmed by CDC showed revertant polio Sabin type 2 virus. This is indicative of a transmission chain from an individual who received the oral polio vaccine (OPV), which is no longer authorized or administered in the U.S., where only the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) has been given since 2000. This suggests that the virus may have originated in a location outside of the U.S. where OPV is administered, since revertant strains cannot emerge from inactivated vaccines. – NYSDOH

    Transmission of the virus appears to be through vaccine shedding. The vaccine in question is the oral polio vaccine (OPV), an attenuated (or “live virus”) vaccine given to people outside of the US. People who are given active vaccines have the tendency to shed the virus and infect others.  

    Parts of the world where OPV is administered are mainly developing countries, such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, and ones in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. 

    Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been a big driver of polio vaccine funding. But a 2019 article from Science indicates the decades-long eradication campaign “suffered major setbacks.”

    Since 2000, only inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) has been given to U.S. children, and since it’s inactive or dead, there’s no risk of shedding. 

    NYSDOH is now requesting those who are “vaccinated but at risk of exposure” to get a “booster.” 

    Add polio boosters to the expanding listing of vaccines the government is trying to force into the bodies of Americans, including COVID boosters and ones for Monkeypox. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 21:00

  • Growing Number Of K-12 Teachers Charged With Child Sex Crimes In Recent Months: Analysis
    Growing Number Of K-12 Teachers Charged With Child Sex Crimes In Recent Months: Analysis

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    At least 181 K-12 teachers, principals, and staff have been arrested for child sex crimes in the United States so far this year, according to an analysis of reports.

    A classroom in Tustin, Calif., on March 10, 2021. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

    At least 181 educators been arrested between Jan. 1 and June 30, according to a Fox News analysis. Arrests that did not make it in media reports were not counted.

    Four principals, 153 teachers, 12 substitute teachers, and 12 teachers were arrested on a litany of charges, including sexually assaulting students and possessing child pornography. About 140 of those who were arrested carried out alleged crimes against students.

    For example, an educator in Delaware, identified as High Road School teacher James Garfield, was arrested last week for allegedly assaulting a 15-year-old student. He was charged with two counts of felony rape and related charges, according to local media.

    Days before that, a teacher in Warren, Pennsylvania, was arrested and charged after he allegedly sexually assaulted a 15-year-old student. He was charged with aggravated indecent assault, institutional sexual assault, and other charges, it was reported.

    Weeks before that, a Hoboken, New Jersey man admitted to raping two 17-year-old girls while he worked as a gym teacher in two different public school districts in Hudson County, New Jersey. In late June, 45-year-old Francisco Realpe pleaded guilty to two counts of sexual assault, prosecutors said.

    Christopher Rufo, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute an activist who has battled the spread of critical race theory in classrooms, called for a new study on child sex abuse in schools.

    This is a scandal that the political Left is doing everything in its power to suppress,” he said in a statement to Fox News. “The basic fact is incontrovertible: every day, a public school teacher is arrested, indicted, or convicted for child sex abuse. And yet, the teachers unions, the public school bureaucracies, and the left-wing media pretend that the abuse isn’t happening and viciously attack families who raise concerns.”

    In an article published in April, Rufo noted that the Department of Education last released a report in 2004 (pdf), which said nearly 9.6 percent of students have been targeted by teachers for sexual misconduct in K-12 classrooms.

    “The most comprehensive report about sexual abuse in public schools, published by the Department of Education in 2004, estimates—on the basis of a 2000 survey, conducted by the American Association of University Women, of 2,065 students in grades eight through 11—that nearly 10 percent of K-12 students have been victims of sexual misconduct by a public school employee,” he wrote.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 20:40

  • "Let's Tap The Brakes" – America's Largest Landlords Pull Back From Home-Buying-Spree
    “Let’s Tap The Brakes” – America’s Largest Landlords Pull Back From Home-Buying-Spree

    America’s largest landlords have changed course as the highest interest rate increases in decades to squash rising inflation has slowed down acquisitions of single-family homes

    KKR & Co.’s My Community Homes, American Homes 4 Rent, and Amherst Holdings have reduced home buying in recent weeks, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the efforts.

    The people, who asked not to be named, said some institutional buyers slashed buying activity by more than 50%. 

    Mynd Management, a real estate platform that helps investors find, buy, lease, manage, and sell residential investment properties, has advised institutional clients to dial back acquisitions and wait for housing prices to readjust to the interest rate shock

    In an interview, Mynd’s CEO Doug Brien told Bloomberg that market conditions could improve in the fall as “buying opportunities” emerge. He said, for the time being, “let’s tap the brakes and watch the markets.” 

    Brien’s ‘wait and see approach’ comes as the Biden admin’s intention to crush the housing market (with the help of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes) and spark a powerful recession to combat the highest inflation in forty years. 

    Home sales have been rapidly slowing as 30Y mortgage rates jumped in the year’s first half, spiking at the fastest pace on record and unleashing a housing affordability crisis, curbing demand. 

    … setting the stage for a sharp repricing lower in home prices, hence why Brien has told institutional clients to pause buying due to the risk of overpaying. 

    Industry executives say the recent slowdown has not dampened their enthusiasm for single-family rentals, and many expect the housing market to offer better opportunities in the months ahead. Those could come in the form of lower home prices, rising rents, or an increased willingness by homebuilders to sell properties in bulk. -Bloomberg

    Institutional homebuyers are already preparing for the price slide (we point out this slide already started). NexPoint Advisors raised $2.5 billion for a new single-family rental fund in June. 

    “When there’s no certainty in the market, everybody pauses,” said Mike McMullen. He runs Prominence Homes, a Birmingham, Alabama, home builder specializing in rental houses and a real estate brokerage that helps investors acquire properties.

    So if institutional buyers have paused buying and millions of Americans can no longer afford homes, how far do prices fall until a buyer remerges? 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 20:20

  • Democrat House Majority Leader Refuses To Commit To Supporting Biden 2024
    Democrat House Majority Leader Refuses To Commit To Supporting Biden 2024

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Democrat House majority leader Steny Hoyer (D-NY) refused to commit to supporting Biden 2024 in another sign that the president is being jettisoned as his cognitive abilities decline.

    Hoyer made the comments during an appearance on Neil Cavuto’s Fox News show.

    “Let me ask you this, do you think, as some in your party are saying, [Biden] should run again, he’s open to running again, he’s not too old to run again?” Cavuto asked Hoyer.

    “Neil, I-I-I’m not gonna go there,” Hoyer replied. “You’re asking about problems today, this is about today. There’s an inflation problem.”

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “Well, six out of 10 Democrats don’t think the President’s up to dealing with this today,” Cavuto interjected, but Hoyer refused to be drawn on the matter.

    With the New York Times having published six hit pieces against Biden’s candidacy in the last two months, the rats appear to be fleeing the sinking ship.

    Front and center as the reason is Biden’s declining cognitive abilities, with him stumbling into yet another verbal gaffe yesterday by saying he had cancer.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) also refused to say she’d support Biden running again during an appearance on CNN last month.

    Yesterday, we highlighted the comments of Dick Morris, former top advisor to Bill Clinton, who sensationally claimed that Hillary is being lined up to replace Biden.

    According to Morris, the Democratic establishment knows “that Biden can’t run again in 2024” due to his “quickly declining mental abilities” and the economic disaster he had presided over.

    As we document in the video below, given how he has behaved over the last two years, the notion that Biden would come out on top of debates with Trump two years from now is absurd.

    *  *  *

    Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

    In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 20:00

  • Amazon To Deploy Rivian Electric Vans For Prime Deliveries In These Cities
    Amazon To Deploy Rivian Electric Vans For Prime Deliveries In These Cities

    Amazon is the world’s largest online retailer and has a large carbon footprint regarding its nationwide network of fulfillment centers and delivery vehicles that transport packages from warehouse to warehouse and the last mile: to the customer’s doorstep.

    By 2030, the company has promised to have at least half of its shipments considered carbon-neutral and increase the use of renewable energy.

    When examining the environmental impact of Amazon, the company is a massive emitter of carbon emissions. Its transportation network involves vans, trucks, and airplanes to transport packages. 

    In September 2019, Amazon founder and then-CEO Jeff Bezos declared war on climate change by announcing his company “just placed an order for 100,000 electric delivery vans” produced by Rivian. He said Amazon has ambitions to be entirely carbon neutral by 2040. 

    The first Rivian vans are “hitting the road in Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, Nashville, Phoenix, San Diego, Seattle, and St. Louis, among other cities,” according to Amazon on Thursday. 

    Amazon said customers across the US would begin to see “thousands” of Rivian vans by the year’s end and expect 100,000 in metro areas by 2030. 

    “Fighting the effects of climate change requires constant innovation and action, and Amazon is partnering with companies who share our passion for inventing new ways to minimize our impact on the environment. Rivian has been an excellent partner in that mission, and we’re excited to see our first custom electric delivery vehicles on the road,” said Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon.

    Amazon has been testing Rivian preproduction vans since 2021 and has delivered over 430,000 packages. “This significant testing has allowed Rivian to continuously improve the vehicle’s performance, safety, and durability in various climates and geographies as well as its state-of-the-art features to ensure driver satisfaction and overall functionality,” Amazon said in a press release. 

    During the testing, we noted Amazon raised questions about the EV vans: Rivian Shares Plunge After Amazon Agrees To “Significant” EV Van Deal With Stellantis and Rivian Tumbles After Report Amazon Testing “Reveals Questions About Battery Power, Cameras.”

    However, there’s a significant problem we’ve spotted. The massive EV rollout over the coming years will require considerable investments in the power grid to boost spare power capacity through new generation sources (such as solar and wind nuclear) to meet soaring power demand. 

    For instance, last week, power demand in Texas hit a record, and spare grid capacity was limited, forcing state grid operator ERCOT to call for conservation to prevent blackouts. Meanwhile, Tesla asked customers in the state not to charge EVs during peak demand times. 

    If power grids aren’t modernized during corporate fleets transitioning from fossil fuels to EVs — then power grids across the country could become unstable, just like in Texas. 

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 19:40

  • "Republicans Are Just Going After Him": Media Starts The Spin On Possible Hunter Biden Charges
    “Republicans Are Just Going After Him”: Media Starts The Spin On Possible Hunter Biden Charges

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    The media is reporting that the criminal investigation of Hunter Biden is at a “critical stage” with the grand jury considering an array of charges including various tax violations and possible foreign lobbying violations. I previously testified in Congress on possible criminal exposure for Hunter under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). There seems ample evidence for such charges but there remain some glaring questions in how the Biden Administration has handled the investigation of the Biden family.

    What is also striking is the initial response of pundits on cable channels like MSNBC that has long ignored or downplayed the allegations.

    The most glaring question raised the report is, again, the refusal of Attorney General Merrick Garland to appoint a Special Counsel despite overwhelming justification for such an appointment. For over a year, I have been writing on the obvious need for a special counsel in an investigation that not only is embarrassing for the Biden family but implicates not just Hunter but his uncle and his father.

    Given this mounting evidence, the position of Attorney General Garland has gone from dubious to ridiculous in evading the issue of a special counsel appointment.  He continues to refuse to acknowledge these conflicts with the President.

    Federal regulations allow the appointment of a special counsel when it is in the public interest and an “investigation or prosecution of that person or matter by a United States Attorney’s Office or litigating Division of the Department of Justice would present a conflict of interest for the Department or other extraordinary circumstances.”

    It is hard to imagine a stronger case for the appointment of a special counsel. Attorney General Garland has failed in his duty to protect the Justice Department from such conflicts or the appearance of such conflicts.

    There will be lingering questions over the independence of the investigation. For example, if you are investigating lobbying violations tied to Hunter’s open influence peddling, why would you not ask to question the man referred to as the “big guy” who was purportedly cut in for a ten percent share of one of the most dubious deals? He is also the same man who reportedly received money from shared accounts and was referenced by Hunter to foreign clients as part of the inducement for giving him money. He is the object of the influence peddling. He is also now the President of the United States.

    Without speaking with such figures, the Justice Department could be accused of engaging in willful blindness to possible conspiracy violations involving not just Hunter but his family. If Hunter is then given a plea deal on limited charges, it will magnify those questions. That would particularly be the case if the case is closed before Republicans take the House and start their own investigation into the matter. That danger of an appearance of a conflict could have been avoided with simply appointing a special counsel over a year ago.

    What is also striking is the response in the media, which long called the Hunter Biden laptop “Russian disinformation” or fake newsOn MSNBC, Paul Begala dismissed the importance of any criminal charges of the President’s son in a multimillion dollar influence peddling scheme:

    “No. No. I wish the guy well. He struggled with addiction, and, you know, nobody has charged him with anything. But this has been a Republican fixation to no avail. They have got no political gain out of this. I looked up Ron Johnson, the senator from Wisconsin, a couple of months ago, was asked about mass shootings … He said, ‘Before we pass anything new on guns, let’s enforce the law we already have. Let’s start with Hunter Biden.’ What the heck? So it’s a challenge for Hunter Biden. I wish him well, but it’s not going to be a political issue.”

    The response of Kasie Hunt was even more interesting:

    “It seems like, if anything, it probably energizes Democrats because it makes them think it’s political and that Republicans are just going after him for that reason.”

    This would be an indictment under the Biden Administration but Hunt is already portraying the expected criticism as “Republicans are just going after him.” There remains no expression of concern over emails detailing millions of dollars going to Hunter as he raises access and meetings with his father. The same pundits who dismissed or downplayed the basis for the investigation are now dismissing the possible finding of probable cause of federal crimes.

    As discussed earlier, it remains astonishing how successful the Biden family was making the scandal vanish before that 2020 election with the help of most of the media. It was analogized to Houdini making his 10,000-pound elephant Jennie disappear in his act. The Biden trick however occurred live before an audience of millions. The media has made the story disappear except for a couple of the usual outlets.

    The start of the spin shows that even criminal charges might not force the media to see the whole elephant. The key to the trick was involving the media in the original trick is that it invests reporters in the illusion. It is like calling audience members to the stage to assist in the performance. Reporters have to insist that there was nothing to see or they have to admit to being part of the original deception. The media cannot see the elephant without the public seeing something about the media in its past efforts to conceal it.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 19:20

  • Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash
    Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash

    The past two months have seen a barrage of negative news coverage focusing on the US housing market…

    … which is predictable: after all, with mortgage rates soaring at the fastest pace on record to decade highs, and sending US housing affordability to the lowest in history…

    … only a handful of the “1%” can afford the American Dream.

    Alas, it also means that just like in 2007, a housing crash is now just a matter of time.

    That much is known. What is also know, is that once housing craters, the largest US residential and commercial landlord – private equity giant Blackstone – is about to get even bigger. That’s when it will deploy some (or all) of the record $50 billion in dry powder it has raised to prepare for just the coming housing crash.

    According to the WSJ, Blackstone is the final stages of raising a new real-estate fund that would set a record as the biggest vehicle of its kind, defying market volatility and a crowded landscape for fundraising.

    The private-equity giant said in a regulatory filing Wednesday it has closed on commitments totaling $24.1 billion for Blackstone Real Estate Partners X, the latest iteration of its main real-estate fund.

    According to the WSJ, Blackstone is committing about $300 million of its own capital and has allocated an additional $5.9 billion to investors, which will bring the fund to $30.3 billion when it is finalized. The firm raised the fund, expected to be the largest traditional private-equity vehicle in history, in just three month. It was also Blackstone that set the prior record, with the $26 billion buyout fund it raised in 2019. The new real-estate fund will be 50% larger than its predecessor, a $20.5 billion pool raised in 2019.

    Together with funds dedicated to real estate in Asia and Europe, Blackstone will have a war chest of more than $50 billion to do so-called opportunistic investments, which tend to be higher-risk deals with the potential for higher returns.

    That, according to the WSJ, “could allow the firm to take advantage of a downturn in the public markets.” Translation: at a time when Americans are liquidating their housing en masse to shore up liquidity when the bottom falls out from the economy, Blackstone will step in and buy all the distressed properties at pennies on the dollar, becoming an even bigger presence in US, and global, real estate.

    Not surprisingly, many of Blackstone’s best-performing deals—like its 2014 purchase of the Cosmopolitan casino and hotel in Las Vegas and its 2016 deal for life-sciences buildings owner BioMed Realty Trust —were struck during periods of market turmoil.

    It won’t be just Blackstone that goes bottom fishing in a few months: a slew of private-equity funds are in the market this year, with many trying to raise huge sums even after stocks fell and deal-making dried up. The surge in requests for new cash has overwhelmed investment teams at institutions such as pension funds and endowments and has meant many have delayed making commitments to all but the top managers.

    The size of Blackstone’s new fund and the speed at which it was able to raise the money demonstrate that institutional investors are still eager to participate in vehicles being offered by established managers with good records. And while the ranks of $20 billion-plus buyout funds have been growing, there are still relatively few real-estate megafunds comparable with Blackstone’s.

    As the WSJ adds, just like the firm as a whole, Blackstone’s $298 billion real-estate business has embraced a thematic investment strategy with the goal of targeting areas of the economy where growth is outpacing inflation. That has led it to focus on four key areas: warehouses used for e-commerce; life-sciences office buildings; rental housing; and hospitality tied to travel and leisure. It has also excelled in all four areas, long ago becoming the largest US residential landlord much to the chagrin of tens of millions of Americans who dutifully pay Steve Schwarzman for the privilege of having a roof over their head.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 19:00

  • Pennsylvania Lawmaker Issues Report Detailing 'Myriad Of Election Issues'
    Pennsylvania Lawmaker Issues Report Detailing ‘Myriad Of Election Issues’

    Authored by Beth Brelje via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    More than two months after Pennsylvania’s May 17 primary election, the Department of State still has not certified the election results. It’s an administrative failure that undermines confidence in the state’s election system, according to Republican state Rep. Seth Grove, chairman of the State Government Committee.

    Pennsylvania state Rep. Seth Grove, a Republican, talks about his report on problems with Pennsylvania election systems in the capital building in Harrisburg on July 19, 2022. (Courtesy of Rep. Seth Grove)

    That is one of numerous examples Grove described at the state capital building in Harrisburg during a July 19 press conference in which he released a 186-page report (pdf) with the long title, “Election Reform in Pennsylvania: Missed Opportunities and Continued Chaos-an Interim Report on The Status of Elections in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania After the Veto of House Bill 1300.”

    Grove is still advocating for something like HB 1300, which Gov. Tom Wolf vetoed in June 2021. It was a package of election reforms that called for voter identification and provided for early in-person voting; moved the voter registration deadline back from 15 days to 30 days before the election; established a state bureau of election audits; allowed for pre-canvassing of mailed ballots; and would have made it easier for older and disabled voters by moving them to the front of the line or providing curbside voting so they could remain in their car.

    The bill also introduced stiffer fines and longer possible prison terms for election tampering.

    But Wolf didn’t go for it.

    This bill is ultimately not about improving access to voting or election security, but about restricting the freedom to vote,” Wolf said in a statement about the veto. “If adopted it would threaten to disrupt election administration, undermine faith in government, and invite costly, time-consuming, and destabilizing litigation.”

    It didn’t seem like Wolf read the bill, Grove said in his report.

    Unfortunately, Gov. Wolf vetoed the bill despite seeming largely unfamiliar with the contents. By vetoing the legislation, he made himself the sole obstacle to historic reform that would have improved nearly every aspect of election administration in Pennsylvania. Most importantly, it would have allowed the General Assembly to live up to our constitutional requirement for uniformity and fairness in elections and prevent any reoccurrence of the national attention our current, broken process received during and after the November 2020 Election.

    Incidents from the Report

    The report details troubles in the state’s elections that have happened since 2020. The following incidents are a sampling of those described in more detail in the report:

    In 2021, a Luzerne County man admitted to using his deceased mother’s information to apply for an absentee ballot.

    During the May 2021 primary, some counties faced a shortage of paper ballots at polling places on election day, in part due to higher than expected in-person voting. Shortages happened in Clearfield, Delaware, Lebanon, and York counties, and possibly others.

    In Fayette County during the same election, an issue with barcodes meant ballots were not scanning or being recorded. Affected ballots were set aside and counted by hand when polls closed.

    Also in the May 2021 primary, nine Snyder County voters received the wrong ballots, and Erie County voters left two polling sites with their marked ballots.

    During the November 2021 general election, during the preelection process, Berks County’s Spanish-language ballot instructions included the incorrect date for the election, affecting 17,000 mail-in ballots.

    In the same election, the Lehigh County Board of Elections decided to count undated ballots. In response, members of the House Republican Caucus issued a letter threatening impeachment unless the law was followed. The matter resulted in litigation in federal courts, with the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals ordering the undated ballots be counted.

    That was not the last of ballot issues.

    Another case in federal district court challenged the practice of disqualifying ballots lacking a secrecy envelope. The case is not yet resolved.

    And recently, the Department of State filed suit against the Berks, Lancaster, and Fayette county boards of elections over certification disputes arising from the 2022 primary election. At issue is the treatment of ballots lacking a date. These counties certified results excluding such ballots, as required by Pennsylvania law.

    Read more here…

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 18:40

  • Biden Tests Positive: Is It Still A Pandemic Of The Unvaccinated?
    Biden Tests Positive: Is It Still A Pandemic Of The Unvaccinated?

    Update (1400ET): President Biden has tweeted a short clip to remind everyone he is “double vaccinated and double boosted” and to tell Americans to “keep the faith”?

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    As Techno Fog notes via The Reactionary, the whole thing has reached the point of absurdity. As we noted below, Biden said in July 2021 that if you’re vaccinated, “You’re not going to get Covid.”

    That guarantee from Biden was significant. After that statement, there was a multi-pronged effort to scapegoat the continuation of the “pandemic” on the unvaccinated. Dr. Fauci blamed the unvaccinated for “propagating” the latest outbreak, saying we need to “do something to get them to be vaccinated.”

    That term do something suggested action. State governments and cities began issuing their own vaccination requirements. New York City led the way, requiring “proof of at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine for a variety of activities for workers and customers — indoor dining, gyms and performances — to put pressure on people to get vaccinated.”

    The media called for more extreme measures, demanding Biden institute a “no-fly list for unvaccinated adults.” They called for mandates. They begged for the federal government to raise “the costs of remaining unvaccinated.” Thankfully, they didn’t get much of what they asked for. COVID-19 cases are rising in many of the most vaccinated states, including California. The mandates and the vaccines haven’t stopped the spread.

    As to Biden’s current COVID-19 diagnosis?

    At least it isn’t cancer. The remarkable thing about Biden’s purported cancer “gaffe” – apart from (incorrectly?) saying he has cancer – is that he didn’t notice he said he has cancer. A normal mind might correct itself after making such a seismic error. Biden didn’t comprehend the significance of his statement. He just continued mumbling along, reading words off a screen as fast as he could before getting out of that riverfront hellscape.

    *  *  *

    Despite being double-vaccinated and double-boosted (and despite having promised Americans exactly a year ago that if you take the vaccines you won’t get COVID), The White House is reporting that 79-year-old President Biden has tested positive for COVID-19 this morning.

    Statement from Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre (emphasis and images ours)

    This morning, President Biden tested positive for COVID-19. He is fully vaccinated and twice boosted and experiencing very mild symptoms.

    He has begun taking Paxlovid.

    Consistent with CDC guidelines, he will isolate at the White House and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time. He has been in contact with members of the White House staff by phone this morning, and will participate in his planned meetings at the White House this morning via phone and Zoom from the residence.

    Consistent with White House protocol for positive COVID cases, which goes above and beyond CDC guidance, he will continue to work in isolation until he tests negative. Once he tests negative, he will return to in-person work.

    Out of an abundance of transparency, the White House will provide a daily update on the Presidents status as he continues to carry out the full duties of the office while in isolation.

    Per standard protocol for any positive case at the White House, the White House Medical Unit will inform all close contacts of the President during the day today, including any Members of Congress and any members of the press who interacted with the President during yesterday’s travel.

    The President’s last previous test for COVID was Tuesday, when he had a negative test result.

    The President’s Doctor sent a clarifying note to The White House Press Secretary.

    We are sure he will ‘say the line’…

    We wonder what she’s thinking…

    It’s been quite a month for the president: falls off bike, fist-bumps MbS, lies about cancer, gets COVID, and hits new record low approval rating.

    Tyler Durden
    Thu, 07/21/2022 – 18:33

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 21st July 2022

  • The Wuhan 'Disinformation'
    The Wuhan ‘Disinformation’

    Authored by Pete Hoekstra via The Gatestone Institute,

    • These are startling reversals by both organizations: the WHO and the Lancet Commission. They have consistently ridiculed and downplayed the possibility that the virus originated and escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. Now, nearly three years after COVID-19 began devastating the world as we knew it, there is just this collective “Oops!”?

    • For two years the WHO, the Lancet and others have been stooges for the Chinese Communists. It is time to identify them all and hold them accountable for their grave errors. Their actions probably cost the lives of millions and have so far allowed China to escape accountability.

    • It seems that while covering for the Chinese Communists since the beginning of the pandemic, Sachs also decided to absolve them of accountability, and instead point the finger of responsibility at the U.S.

    • Sachs may have a point, but he is not the one in any position to deliver more messages. The U.S. Congress must thoroughly investigate the U.S. government’s role and cooperation with China in biotechnology research, including the coordination between U.S. labs and labs around the world engaged in further, reportedly even more dangerous types of research.

    • The Chinese government must be held to account for the Wuhan lab leak, the coverup, hoarding vital medical supplies, damage to the global economy, and most importantly, the deaths of more than 6.3 million people worldwide.

    “My sources,” read the incoming email on January 24, 2020, “received reliable information according to which the situation related to corona virus infection is very serious and it’s hundreds the people who drop in the streets like flies both in Wuhan and in other 12 provinces.”

    The message continued:

    “The information given by Chinese government don’t represent the huge risk linked to new corona virus.

    “My sources confirm the new corona virus escaped from National Bio-safety Laboratory, in Wuhan, which is BSL-4 lab, through a laboratory technician who went in touch with this new corona virus.

    “My sources say Chinese Authorities are covering this ‘incident’ happened inside the laboratory. So, it’s extremely urgent to understand and to face the situation like a lethal threat for US National Security and the rest of the world.”

    The message came from a reliable European intelligence source with whom I had worked after leaving Congress and who had shared information on multiple issues. Like all intelligence sources, his material always needed to be vetted and confirmed, and, as happens in the intelligence world, results sometimes vary.

    Over the next two years, he sent hundreds of additional emails about the COVID pandemic. Some of the information was clearly out of the mainstream. The World Health Organization (WHO) and mainstream medical professionals made it very clear that the only accepted explanation for the source of the pandemic was via natural transmission from some wet market or lost bat.

    There was little-to-no consideration given — in fact there was only outright dismissal and derision given — to the possibility that the virus might have been scientifically manipulated and released — or had escaped from — a laboratory.

    That all officially changed in a stunning set of events within the last few days. First it was reported that WHO Director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus believes COVID most likely leaked from the Wuhan laboratory. The WHO revised its earlier position, that a natural explanation was the most likely, to now saying that all options for the origins of COVID should be on the table.

    In addition, Jeffrey Sachs, the lead of the Lancet COVID 19 Commission, has stated that he now is convinced that the pandemic started in the lab. These are startling reversals by both organizations: The WHO and the Lancet Commission. They have consistently ridiculed and downplayed the possibility that the virus originated and escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. Now, nearly three years after COVID began devastating the world as we knew it, there is just this collective “Oops!”?

    These two organizations had from the start been at the forefront of promoting — insisting on — the natural origin of the virus. As my source indicated in his correspondence, there were those who suspected in late 2019 and early 2020 that the virus had escaped from the Wuhan laboratory, that it was far more dangerous than the Chinese were telling the rest of the world, and that the Chinese were firmly trying to cover it up.

    The key points made by my source on January 24, 2020, have proven to be totally accurate. With the recent admissions by Tedros and Sachs and the organizations they represent, the prevailing origin theory now rests on the Wuhan laboratory. The virus has proven to be more deadly than the Chinese have ever let on, and to this day, the Chinese Communist Party government has not cooperated with international organizations to contain the virus or determine its exact origins.

    China has instead done the exact opposite. In the initial stages, it cleansed the Wuhan wet market, refused to allow outside investigators in, refused to share information with the international community, and as the virus developed, allowed people to flee Wuhan on flights to the outside world as the city itself was being locked down.

    For two years the WHO, the Lancet and others have been stooges for the Chinese Communists. It is time to identify them all and hold them accountable for their grave errors. Their actions probably cost the lives of millions and have so far allowed China to escape accountability.

    One would think that the WHO and the Lancet would be reserved in making any more statements and observations about COVID, but that is not what is happening. Sachs, his credibility now in tatters, has been making a new pronouncement: that the COVID virus was created with the aid of U.S. biotechnology.

    It seems that while covering for the Chinese Communists since the beginning of the pandemic, Sachs also decided to absolve them of accountability, and instead point the finger of responsibility at the U.S.

    Sachs may have a point, but he is not in any position to deliver more messages. The U.S. Congress must thoroughly investigate the U.S. government’s role and cooperation with China in biotechnology research, including the coordination between U.S. labs and labs around the world engaged in further, reportedly even more dangerous types of research.

    If, as seems possible, U.S. research dollars and information might have found its way into places it never should have been, it is time for the American people to demand action. More than one million Americans have died, yet Congress has done somewhere between little and nothing to determine the origins of or accountability for the virus.

    While Congress needs to examine what role, if any, the U.S. government had in the research leading to the deadly virus, America’s role is surely minor when compared to that of the government of the Chinese Communist Party. The Chinese government must be held to account for the Wuhan lab leak, the coverup, hoarding vital medical supplies, damage to the global economy, and most importantly, the deaths of more than 6.3 million people worldwide.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 23:40

  • Portland Parents Encouraged To Send Their Kids To “Social Justice Summer Camp”
    Portland Parents Encouraged To Send Their Kids To “Social Justice Summer Camp”

    Watch out for those groomers.  Hard left ideologues have long sought to target other people’s children as a means to indoctrinate the next generation while they are young, naive and easily manipulated.  Frankly, it’s the only way to effectively spread what amounts to cultural Marxism – Most adults with normal upbringings are going to ask too many questions and have too many criticisms.  Leftists see the stalking and grooming of young people as fair game, because in their minds the ends justify the means and their agenda is viewed as sacrosanct.

    In other words, mentally enslave the children of today and you own the adult voters of tomorrow.  The latest attempt is a relatively new camp program in Portland, Oregon operated by a group called ‘Budding Roses’ (a rather unsettling name considering the topic).  The group was founded as a part of the Black Rose Anarchist Foundation and the camp is open to students from 4th to 8th grade. 

    The curriculum of Budding Roses has a mix of online and camp lessons, but they appear to all have the same basic bent:  

    Black As Resistance: 4 Kids – Your children can learn all about white colonialism, anti-blackness, “self defense,” and more!

    Police Abolition – Imagining a world without police.

    Transformative Justice – Individuals “affected by injustice” address their grievances and demand reparations.  

    White Supremacy Reflection – Terms like “white supremacy.” “intersectionality,” and “privilege” are explained.  Learn about the original sin of being white!

    Writing People In Prison – Want your children to start a correspondence with convicted criminals?  Budding Roses will teach them how!

    The list continues, but you get the general idea.  

    We have seen many such indoctrination attempts over the past few years, including a woke sex education camp for children based out of Hazard, Kentucky which covered such fun topics as the different methods for masturbation.  Numerous other camps across the US have adopted the gender identity insanity, allowing biological males to be housed with biological females as long as they identify as “trans.”  This same philosophy has led to some horrible incidents of manipulation and victimization in public schools.

    For example, in Loudoun County, VA, a boy claiming to be a transgender girl was allowed to frequent the girls bathrooms at Loudoun High School in the name of inclusion, only to have him rape a 15-year-old girl at the school.  The Loudoun School Board attempted to ignore and then hide the event while having the father of the victim arrested at a school board meeting when he argued the issue.  The mainstream media has since tried to claim that conservatives “lied” about the Loudoun incident because the girl had allegedly had two encounters with the assailant in the past, yet the boy in question was CONVICTED of sexual assault in juvenile court.  This is not in question.  

    The point is, social justice proponents often overlook the highly negative effects associated with exposing children to their ideology.  They don’t care about the children, they only care about how those children can be used as tools for the furtherance of their cause.  

    Set aside the fact that the majority of lessons that are taught as a part of woke curriculum are based in faulty logic, misrepresentations of history and outright lies.  The risks go well beyond the mental grooming and delve into the potential for sexual grooming as well.  With no attempt to separate children according to biological sex, these camps are just asking for trouble.  Perhaps they even welcome such trouble.  

    Woke lessons within camp settings are much more pervasive than many people realize.  It’s not just the dedicated Anarchist/socialist brainwashing camps, it’s bigger venues as well.  Boy Scouts and Girls Scouts of America have seen a dramatic plunge in their membership numbers since they began adopting leftist talking points and lessons.  The Girl Scouts in particular have gone full bore SJW with their “anti-racism” programs which teach about diversity, equity, inclusion and racial justice.

    It’s the same old made-up buzzwords used as a cover for collectivism, conformity and socialism/communism.  When they said they’re coming for your children, they were quite serious.      

     

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 23:20

  • 'A New World Order Is Coming' – Putin Blasts "Globalist" Ideology As "Totalitarian"
    ‘A New World Order Is Coming’ – Putin Blasts “Globalist” Ideology As “Totalitarian”

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted earlier today that the “globalist” world order is “totalitarian” and is “holding back creative pursuit.”

    Putin made the comments during a forum in Moscow.

    The notorious leader claimed that the west had only achieved its global preeminence due to the historic plunder of other nations and had no moral right to enforce a unipolar model on the planet.

    “The model of the total dominance of the so-called ‘golden billion’ is unjust. Why should this ‘golden billion’ among the planet’s population dominate others, impose its own rules of conduct?” Putin asked.

    “Based on the illusion of ‘exclusivity,’ this model divides people into first and second class status, and is therefore racist and neo-colonial in its essence,” he added.

    “And the globalist, supposedly liberal ideology which underlies it is increasingly acquiring the features of totalitarianism, holding back creative pursuit, free historical creation,” Putin claimed.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The Russian President went on to stress his view that the globalist world order was built off the exploitation of other countries.

    “Of course, this ‘golden billion’ did not become ‘golden’ by accident. It has achieved a lot. But it did not only take up its positions thanks to the realization of some ideas, but to a large extent due to the robbery of other peoples – both in Asia and Africa. That’s what happened.”

    He then proclaimed that western elites are terrified that their global order is being dismantled.

    No matter how much Western and so-called supranational elites strive to preserve the existing order of things, a new era is coming, a new stage in world history. And only truly sovereign states can ensure high dynamics for growth and become an example for others,” said Putin.

    As we have previously highlighted, Putin has consistently blamed the west for its own downfall.

    Back in March, he gave a speech in which he blamed the ‘western ruling elite’ for creating the economic hardships impacting people in Europe and the United States.

    Last year, the controversial strongman blasted the west as “completely insane” for allowing children to be taught there is no biological sex, saying the woke crusade against traditional gender roles was “subverting human nature.”

    *  *  *

    Brand new merch now available! Get it at https://www.pjwshop.com/

    In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. I need you to sign up for my free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown. Get early access, exclusive content and behinds the scenes stuff by following me on Locals.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 23:00

  • Macau To Ease Lockdown Saturday If Virus Conditions Allow
    Macau To Ease Lockdown Saturday If Virus Conditions Allow

    The world’s largest gambling hub, Macau, will reopen businesses as soon as this weekend “if the current pandemic situation remains stable or improves,” reported Macau Business

    Macau authorities revealed lockdowns would ease on July 23 and end on July 30, with essential and non-essential businesses allowed to resume limited operations. All casinos and non-essential businesses were shuttered on July 11 after the autonomous region on the south coast of China reported a flare-up in COVID-19 infections. 

    “The reduction in daily reported cases allowed for the advancement of a new consolidation period and the relaxation of some restrictions. We hope we can quickly regain normal life,” Secretary for Social Affairs and Culture Elsie Ao Ieong U said in a press conference on Wednesday.

    There was no mention of when casinos would reopen via the Macau Business report. However, sources with direct knowledge of reopening plans told Reuters that casinos “will reopen on Saturday.” 

    Macau adopted China’s disastrous COVID Zero strategy of lockdowns and mass testing — one way to crush the economy. The quick, partial reopening appears to be a move by the local government to protect the casino industry since many jobs in the city are directly or indirectly dependent on gaming resorts. 

    The government still recommends that residents stay home and avoid crowded areas for “necessary reasons,” such as work or grocery shopping when restrictions ease Saturday. 

    News the gambling hub will reopen sent shares of Macau casino stocks listed in the US higher premarket. Wynn Resorts climbed 2.5%, and Las Vegas Sands rose nearly 2%. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 22:40

  • ECB Preview: First Rate Hike In 11 Years, And Another Major Policy Mistake
    ECB Preview: First Rate Hike In 11 Years, And Another Major Policy Mistake

    Submitted by Newsquawk

    Summary:

    • ECB policy announcement due Thursday 21st July; rate decision at 13:15BST/08:15EDT, press conference from 13:45BST/08:45EDT
    • The ECB is set to finally pull the trigger on rates; discussion will be over 25bps or 50bps
    • Policymakers are expected to unveil details of the anti-fragmentation tool

    OVERVIEW: After standing pat on rates in June, the ECB is finally set to pull the trigger and commence its rate-hiking cycle for the first time since June 2011 (when it sparked a sovereign debt crisis and cut rates three months later). This particular rate hike will be an even bigger policy error as it comes just as Europe’s economy slams the breaks into a big recession and ahead of what will be a freezing winter.

    Up until this week, analysts had been near unanimous in their view that the hike would be by 25bps given the explicit nature of the June statement. However, recent reporting has suggested that policymakers will now discuss the possibility of a 50bps move. Accordingly, markets now assign a 60% chance to such a move vs. around 33% at the start of the week. If policymakers opt for a 25bps move this time around, the statement will likely reaffirm the pledge to raise rates by a larger increment in September, depending on the medium-term inflation outlook.

    The July meeting will also likely see the Governing Council present details of its new anti-fragmentation tool – Transmission Protection Mechanism (TPM). It remains to be seen how much in the way of details the ECB will provide on its new tool as policymakers might prefer to use a “whatever it takes” approach rather than tempt bond-sellers with a specific number. Furthermore, the issue of conditionality will also be key when assessing the efficacy of such a tool, particularly in lieu of recent events in Italy whereby domestic politics has seen the IT/GE spread widen; something which Northern nations will likely impress is not as a result of ECB monetary policy.

    PRIOR MEETING: As expected, the ECB opted to stand pat on rates whilst announcing its intention to tighten by 25bps at the July meeting. Beyond July, policymakers stated they will consider larger increments if the medium-term inflation outlook persists or deteriorates. On the balance sheet, as expected, the Governing Council announced its decision to end net asset purchases under the APP as of July 1st. Note, the policy statement offered no fresh guidance on how it could deal with the issue of market fragmentation as it commences its rate hiking cycle. The 2022 inflation outlook was upgraded to 6.8% from 5.1%, with 2024 inflation seen above target at 2.1% vs. prev. view of 1.9%. At the accompanying press conference, President Lagarde was pressed further on how the Bank intends to deal with fragmentation, to which she noted that it can utilise existing tools, such as reinvestments from PEPP and, if necessary, deploy new instruments. Later in the press conference, Lagarde noted that there is no specific level of yield spreads that would be a trigger for an anti-fragmentation policy. From a more medium-term perspective, the President was questioned about where the Governing Council judges the neutral rate to be, however, she remarked that this issue was deliberately not discussed.

    RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: June’s Eurozone inflation metrics saw headline Y/Y CPI rise to 8.6% from 8.1%, whilst the core (ex-food and energy) reading ticked higher to 4.6% from 4.4%. In terms of market-based expectations, the Eurozone 5y5y inflation rate has fallen to around 2.09% vs. 2.26% seen at the prior meeting. On the growth front, Q2 GDP metrics will not be released until 29th July. However, in terms of timelier survey data from S&P Global, June’s PMI figures saw the EZ-wide composite metric slip to 52 from 54.8 with the report noting that the data suggests “that risks have increasingly tilted towards the economy slipping into a downturn at the same time that inflationary pressures moderate, but remain elevated”. On the employment front, the unemployment rate continues to decline with the May print easing to 6.6% from 6.7%. Also of note for the Eurozone economy has been the performance of the EUR with EUR/USD falling from a 1.13 handle at the start of the year to just below parity (briefly) last week; a decline of roughly 12.5% peak-to-trough. From a broader perspective, the ECB’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) has fallen around 3.9%.

    RECENT COMMUNICATIONS: Since the prior meeting, President Lagarde said she expects the ECB to raise the key ECB interest rates again in September after a 25bp hike in July, adding that the calibration of the September hike will depend on the updated medium-term inflation outlook. On fragmentation, Reuters sources suggested that the President told EZ Finance Ministers that the goal of anti-fragmentation is not to close spreads. but to normalise spreads. In terms of the hawk-dove divide at the Bank, Germany’s Nagel warned the ECB against lowering borrowing costs for the Eurozone’s southern members, stating that the focus should be on fighting off inflation, which may require more rate hikes than now projected. Nagel is of the view that the anti-fragmentation tool should only be activated in exceptional circumstances with narrowly defined conditions and duration. Latvia’s Kazaks has suggested that a 25bps hike in July and 50bps in September is the base case, but it is worth looking at 50bps in July. At the other end of the spectrum, Italy’s Panetta has continued to stress that normalisation should be gradual, adding that the surge in inflation does not reflect excess demand in the Eurozone. Furthermore, Panetta notes that the anti-fragmentation tool is needed for  the ECB to hit its mandate. Elsewhere, Greece’s Stournaras has stated that he sees no signs of second-round effects in the Eurozone. On the FX rate, France’s Villeroy has stated that the ECB watches the EUR closely as it is important for prices, adding that it is not the EUR that is weak, but the USD that is strong. These comments (13th July) were later followed up by a statement from an ECB spokesperson noting that “we are always attentive to the impact of the FX rate on inflation, with our mandate for price stability. ECB does not target a particular exchange rate”.

    RATES: Analysts surveyed by Reuters (8th-15th July) look for the ECB to hike the deposit, main refi and marginal lending rates by 25bps to -0.25%, 0.25% and 0.5% respectively. In terms of the breakdown of analyst views for the deposit rate, all 63 analysts expect the Bank to move on rates with 62/63 looking for a 25bps hike and just one looking for a larger hike of 50bps. This view appeared to be relatively well cemented given how explicit ECB comms had been over the possibility of a 25bps move for the upcoming meeting. However, source reporting by Reuters and Bloomberg has revealed that policymakers are now set to debate the possibility of a 25bps or 50bps hike at the upcoming meeting. In terms of market pricing, at the start of the week 33bps of tightening was factored in, which implied that a 25bps hike was fully priced with a 32% chance of a 50bps hike. Following the aforementioned reporting, this has now risen to a 60% chance. Reporting has suggested that the Governing Council could be granted cover to shift away from its prior guidance given comments by President Lagarde on June 28th that there are “clearly conditions in which  gradualism would not be appropriate”. That said, it remains to be seen whether or not there is sufficient support for a 50bps move on the Governing Council. Some desks suggest that a 50bps move would make sense given that the Bank is already clearly behind other major central banks in their effort to tame inflation and a 25bps hike seems relatively minor compared to the magnitude of some of the ECB’s peers. ING believes there is a small chance of a 50bps move this week given that some members already wanted to commence the hiking cycle in June. Furthermore, by the time of the September meeting, policymakers could be “looking a recession into the eyes”, which would be an unconventional time to increase the pace of hikes. Also, the recent weakening of the EUR could bolster the case for a 50bps move, albeit Rabobank is of the view that it is doubtful whether such a move would provide much in the way of support for the EUR at this current juncture. Rabobank also makes the point that if the ECB does unveil its ‘Transmission Protection Mechanism’ this month, it could move by 50bps to get the hawks on board. However, Rabo believes that the ECB would prefer to wait and see how its new instrument is received by markets before moving by larger increments. Looking beyond the upcoming meeting, a 50bps hike is fully priced in for September with the year-end deposit rate seen rising to 1% which would imply 75bps of tightening beyond September.

    BALANCE SHEET: After offering no fresh guidance at the June meeting on how it could deal with the issue of market fragmentation as it commences its rate hiking cycle, the ECB was forced to carry out an ad-hoc meeting to address the matter. At which, policymakers decided to flexibly reinvest redemptions from PEPP whilst mandating staff to accelerate the completion of an anti-fragmentation tool. In the aftermath of the meeting, reporting via Reuters suggested that the bond scheme would come with loose conditions and aimed at bringing yield spreads back into line with fundamentals. It was also later reported that officials were unsure whether or not the size or duration of such a bond-buying scheme would be announced. One argument for announcing the size would be that it could help show the ECB’s commitment to avoiding fragmentation, whilst not being seen as giving governments a blank cheque. That said, if the number underwhelmed, it could place pressure on bond markets. Note, any purchases under such a tool would likely be sterilised whereby the scheme could be paired with auctions aimed at draining cash from the banking system. On July 7th it was reported that the new tool would be named the Transmission Protection Mechanism (TPM), however, a lot of
    work was still yet to be done and it was uncertain if it would arrive in time for July. More recently (19th July) reporting from Reuters has suggested that conditionality for the tool could “include the targets set by the Commission for securing money from the European Union Recovery and Resilience Facility as well as the Stability and Growth Pact”, whilst some wanted involvement from the ESM, but this option was now likely discarded. Note, it remains to be seen whether or not the tool will be announced at the upcoming meeting with President Lagarde reportedly “redoubling efforts to get a deal done”. Should the tool be unveiled at the upcoming meeting, analysts at ING highlight that the main issues would be “how to define a ‘neutral’ or ‘economically justified’ spread, the size of such a tool and the degree of conditionality”.  However, a mere “whatever it takes” pledge could present optics that “such a commitment when starting a rate hiking cycle is like hitting the brakes and the accelerator simultaneously“. From a rates perspective, it is likely that hawks would try and negotiate a more aggressive hiking cycle if the conditionality of the TPM is seen to be generous to southern nations. On which, investors will be mindful of the recent political turmoil in Italy, which, at the time of writing could see current PM Draghi leave government and possibly trigger early elections. The prospect of such an outcome has seen the IT/GE 10yr spread widen to in excess of 230bps from sub-200bps levels at the beginning of the month. Given the clear impact of domestic politics on the spread in this instance, there is likely to be increasing tensions between southern and northern nations on the conditionality and implementation of the tool than there otherwise would have been. If the conditionality is perceived to be too strict as a result, it may fail to act as a deterrent for spread-widening.

    Finally, in terms of the market reaction, ING writes markets – by a small majority – exect policymakers in Frankfurt to deliver the previously announced 25bp rate hike on Thursday and leave the door open for a 50bp increase in September (although it wouldn’t be a shock if the ECB goes all the way with 50). The overnight index swaps market is pricing in 30bp for this week and nearly 200bp of tightening by June 2023. The Bank’s message may fall slightly below market expectations, and trigger some dovish re-pricing across the EUR curve.

    The deployment of the anti-fragmentation tool will be all the more interesting as the recent Italian political crisis has increased the chances of a sharp re-widening of Italian sovereign spreads. Here, the details about the conditionality to access the anti-spread tool will be key and may drive part of the market’s reaction.

    ING identifies four different scenarios (with the second being its base case) and include its estimated impact on EUR/USD and German 10Y yields.

    The bank notes that while there is no doubt that the ECB is unhappy with the recent weakness of the euro – not only against the dollar, but on a trade-weighted basis – recent hawkish surprises by the ECB have, however, failed to offer sustained support to the euro, and a larger-than-expected move (a 50bp rate hike) or more hawkish-than-expected forward-looking language may fail to generate enough lift to the euro, a view shared by JPMorgan (which writes that gas supply concerns will undercut the euro, even if the ECB hikes interest rates by 50 basis points Thursday, as developments on Nord Stream 1 are likely to be “the single most important issue for FX markets this week” and A 50bp ECB hike wouldn’t support the common currency if it’s followed by curtailed gas supplies).

    This is especially due to the mounting downside risks in the eurozone, mostly related to the threat of a gas supply crunch in the coming months (or during winter) and more recently about Italy falling back into political uncertainty.

     

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 22:20

  • "Its Critical": Police Departments Across US Struggling With Staffing Shortages
    “Its Critical”: Police Departments Across US Struggling With Staffing Shortages

    After years of supporting BLM activists who succeeded in defunding police departments in major American cities, CNN is now reporting that there are ‘critical staffing shortages’ in precincts across the country.

    Police departments from Atlanta to Kansas City to Portland are coping with critical staffing shortages and struggling to fill their ranks from patrol officers to 911 operators, as the warm weather historically portends bursts of violence in many parts of the United States. -CNN

    The people (who) work here are working long hours, extra overtime to cover other shifts,” said Kansas City Police Interim Chief Joseph Maybin. “But we have to have someone answering the call. We have to have someone dispatching otherwise we can’t get officers to people. It’s critical.”

    “We’re stretched thin,” Maybin added – while dealing with a shortage of around 100 crucial non-law enforcement positions such as 911 dispatchers, mechanics and analysts, as well as more than 200 officers. “But the one thing that we can’t take away from is … emergency response.”

    Meanwhile, Dallas is down around 550 officers, Portland needs 100 more, and Seattle’s shortage of officers has led to the reassignment of detectives from sexual assaults to fill gaps in other areas.

    On Monday, Chicago Police Superintendent David Brown asked for the city’s “continued support and prayers” after the department’s third suicide of an officer in the last month.
     
    Brown also addressed concerns over the department’s canceling of days off during the summer, noting that “historically the most violent weekends of the year” in the city have been Memorial Day, Father’s Day, July Fourth and Labor Day weekends. -CNN

    As Michael Shellenberger wrote last Novermber; In response to anti-police protests, many officers quit, resulting in shortages and a spike in avoidable deaths, from homicides to heart attacks, of innocents…

    Before a vaccine mandate took 100 police officers off the street in mid-October, the Seattle police department was short at least 400 police officers to be at the minimum considered necessary to protect public safety. Why is that?

    The overwhelming and unavoidable reason is anti-police protests by Black Lives Matter activists. This happened nationwide, but was worse in Seattle, where Seattle Mayor Jenny Durkan and progressive members of the Seattle City Council allowed anarchists to briefly take over the downtown Capitol Hill neighborhood in the summer of 2020. Durkan did so to show solidarity with anti-police protests in the wake of the killing of George Floyd by a police officer in Minneapolis.

    The anti-police protests in Seattle were surprising because in 2018 the City Council had hired a black woman, Carmen Best, for the first time to serve as the city’s police chief. Best opened up for the first time about what happened last summer in an interview with me for my book, “San Fransicko,” earlier this year. Best is also one of the candidates NYC’s Mayor-Elect Eric Adams is considering for NYPD Commissioner.

    “I refuse to work for this socialist City Council and their political agenda,” said one officer. “It ultimately will destroy the fabric of this once fine city.” Another said the city’s progressive City Council “will be the downfall of the city of Seattle.” 

    *  *  *

    To entice more people to join the force, police departments have started offering bonuses to new officers, as well as ‘educational stipends’ and other incentives to current members.

    “I’m looking for 250 officers and we’re finding them. People are answering the call,” said Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens. “They’re saying they want to serve their city.”

    A June 2021 national survey found a 45% increase in retirements and an 18% jump in resignations over the previous year. And with the average new officer requiring an 8-month training program before they can patrol the streets alone, it will take years to fill the officer shortfall across the country.

    The reasons for the recruitment and retention crisis are attributable to “multiple social, political, and economic forces,” including generational differences, negative perceptions of policing and the long hiring process of many agencies, according to a September 2019 survey by the International Association of Chiefs of Police.
     
    additionally, low pay and the so-called great resignation — in which workers voluntarily left their jobs in unprecedented numbers after the pandemic — hit policing as it did other professions. -CNN
    “Things will not be perfect tomorrow,” said Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas. “We will not have enough officers tomorrow. What we can let people know … (is that) we’re responding to 911 calls for service. We’re continuing to try to prioritize the best ways that we can help prevent crime throughout our city. But more than anything, that we need to all try to make sure we’re helping other folks know that policing is a good path.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 22:00

  • NBA Champion Says He Regrets Getting COVID-19 Vaccine
    NBA Champion Says He Regrets Getting COVID-19 Vaccine

    Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

    Golden State Warriors forward and NBA Champion Andrew Wiggins suggested he regrets getting the COVID-19 vaccine during the 2021–2022 season, even though he won a championship.

    I still wish I didn’t get it (the vaccinate), to be honest with you,” Wiggins, 27, told FanSided this week.

    Andrew Wiggins #22 of the Golden State Warriors poses for a portrait during the Golden State Warriors Media Day at Chase Center in San Francisco, Calif. on Sept. 27, 2021. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

    Wiggins said that the only way he would be able to play last season is if he got the shot due to San Francisco’s COVID-19 rules around vaccines. Throughout the season, he refused to get the shot and claimed a religious exemption before he was ultimately denied and had to receive the vaccine in October in order to play.

    “I did it,” he said, referring to getting the shot. “And I was an All-Star this year and champion, so that was the good part, just not missing out on the year, the best year of my career,” Wiggins added, but he stated that he was forced to get the shot against his will.

    “But for my body, I just don’t like putting all that stuff in my body, so I didn’t like that. … It wasn’t my choice. I didn’t like that it was either get this or don’t play,” Wiggins said.

    Wiggins previously said he is the only member of his family that received the COVID-19 vaccine, saying that “it’s not really something we believe in.”

    Other Players

    Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving, because he wouldn’t take the vaccine, was denied the ability to play for his team during home games throughout much of the season. Several months ago, New York City Mayor Eric Adams rolled back the city’s vaccination requirement for athletes, allowing him to play.

    Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving (11) walks onto the court after a time-out during the second half against the Charlotte Hornets at Barclays Center. (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)

    I can really say that I stood firm on what I believed in, what I wanted to do with my body,” Irving told ESPN earlier this year. “I think that should be not just an American right, I think that should be a human right.”

    Irving added that “I was called so many different names. … It was part of a struggle of mine to look at the season, a game that I love—my job.”

    I can’t even keep calling it a game, it’s my job—[for] that to be stripped away based on a mandate or something that was in place,” he said.

    Jonathan Isaac #1 of the Orlando Magic stands as others kneel before the start of a game between the Brooklyn Nets and the Orlando Magic on July 31, 2020. (Ashley Landis/Getty Images)

    The Orlando Magic’s Jonathan Isaac, meanwhile, similarly declined the vaccine, remarking that “it felt forced.”

    “Viewing it, it seemed forced,” Isaac said during an interview. “It seemed that there was so much pressure in doing it. I don’t see the wisdom in putting something into my body that’s not going to stop me from getting the virus or transmitting it. That is why I decided to be the only player on my team to not get vaccinated.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 21:40

  • Halliburton Warns Frack Growth "Almost Impossible" This Year
    Halliburton Warns Frack Growth “Almost Impossible” This Year

    Fracking, or hydraulic fracturing, is an oil extraction technique that involves high-pressure water blended with sand and chemicals, forced into underground rocks known as shale to capture oil and gas. The process was revolutionized by horizontal drilling in the 1980s and 2000s, transforming America into the world’s largest oil producer overnight. 

    American shale drillers have shown how quickly they can boost oil production over the years. But after several years of divestment and decarbonization, the days of fracking roaring back to life are over. 

    Halliburton Co.’s CEO Jeff Miller confirmed this to analysts during a conference call Tuesday. He said the oilfield equipment market is so tight that oil explorers are already discussing 2023 projects. 

    Miller said oil companies don’t have enough fracking equipment for newly leased wells this year. He said diesel-powered and electric equipment are in short supply, “making it almost impossible to add incremental capacity this year.” 

    This development is another setback for the Biden administration’s efforts to increase US oil production to ease the worst inflation in forty years ahead of the midterm elections in November. 

    similar message was conveyed by Exxon Mobil, whose CEO said that global oil markets might remain tight for another three to five years primarily because of a lack of investment since the pandemic began.

    Chief executive Darren Woods said it’ll take time for oil firms to “catch up” on the investments needed to ensure enough supply.

    Back to the shale patch, where even if exploration companies were to obtain fracking equipment for drilling new or existing wells, the frack sand used to blast through shale rocks is in short supply across Texas.

    Russell Hardy, the CEO of the world’s largest independent oil merchant, Vitol, also believes oil prices will remain high because the market can’t see where additional supply is coming from to balance demand. 

    Meanwhile, Brent oil prices rose to $106 on Tuesday after President Biden returned from Saudi Arabia without an agreement on increasing output from OPEC+. 

    “The message is that it is OPEC+ that makes the oil supply decision, and the cartel isn’t remotely interested in what Biden is trying to achieve,” said Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst at Avatrade.

    Neither US shale nor OPEC+ appears to be increasing output in the immediate future for their own respective reasons, indicating tight crude supplies will keep energy prices elevated and inflation high. 

    All the Biden administration can hope for now is a recession to curb consumer demand to rebalance markets. 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 21:20

  • George Soros Gave $1 Million To Help Beto O'Rourke Unseat Texas Gov. Greg Abbott
    George Soros Gave $1 Million To Help Beto O’Rourke Unseat Texas Gov. Greg Abbott

    Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times,

    Left-wing Democrat mega donor George Soros has donated $1 million to help Beto O’Rourke’s efforts to unseat Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, filings show.

    Records filed with Texas Ethics Commission published Tuesday show the billionaire donated the sum to the Beto for Texas political action committee in June, according to The Hill. O’Rourke’s campaign confirmed the donation to the outlet.

    O’Rourke has benefited from laws in Texas that allow uncapped campaign donations. According to filings, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee has received a number of donations over six or seven figures.

    Soros, 91, frequently supports progressive causes. He has spent at least $40 million in support of liberal prosecutor candidates between 2014 and 2021, according to a report published by Virginia-based Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund.

    Additionally, the progressive investor gave more than $125 million to a Democrat-aligned super PAC to boost Democrat groups and candidates ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

    Gov. Greg Abbott (R-Texas) displays the “Beto Truth Response Unit” in Houston, June 16, 2022. The ambulance will follow his Democratic opponent on the campaign trail. (Darlene McCormick Sanchez/The Epoch Times)

    Soros handed over his donation to Democracy PAC, which he set up in 2019. Democracy PAC is his main political action committee to support Democrats in what was a “long-term investment” beyond the 2022 elections.

    He has also spent tens of millions of dollars funding media properties, including journalism schools and industry organizations, according to a report by the Media Research Center.

    Matt Palumbo, author of “The Man Behind the Curtain: Inside the Secret Network of George Soros,” said the billionaire funds many left-wing groups, media companies, and political candidates through his Open Society Foundation.

    Palumbo, during an interview for EpochTV’s “Facts Matter” program, also said Soros uses his influence to control what is written about him.

    Soros’s foundation claims to promote democracy and individualism, but in reality it supports a more radical agenda, said Palumbo.

    Abbott Leads O’Rourke

    According to a report by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, Abbott leads O’Rourke by 5 percent among likely voters (pdf).

    The report states that Abbott leads at 49 percent to O’Rourke’s 44 percent, with 5 percent undecided and 2 percent intending to vote for Libertarian Mark Tippetts.

    “More than nine out of 10 Abbott (95 percent) and O’Rourke (92 percent) voters are certain about their vote choice, while 5 percent and 8 percent indicate they might change their mind between now and November,” the report states.

    Gov. Greg Abbott speaks during a press conference about the mass shooting at Uvalde High School in Uvalde, Texas, on May 27, 2022.(Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

    “Abbott holds a 27 percent (60 percent to 33 percent) lead over O’Rourke among white voters while O’Rourke holds a 72 percent (80 percent to 8 percent) lead over Abbott among Black voters, and a 9 percent (51 percent to 42 percent) lead among Latino voters.”

    Women prefer O’Rourke (6 percent) while Abbott outpaces O’Rourke with support of men (18 percent), according to the report.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 21:00

  • US Destroyer Enters China-Claimed Waters For 3rd Time In A Week Ahead Of Pelosi Taiwan Trip
    US Destroyer Enters China-Claimed Waters For 3rd Time In A Week Ahead Of Pelosi Taiwan Trip

    The USS Benfold has traversed China-claimed waters for the third time in a week, passing through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday after China complained about US Navy “illegal” maneuvers near islands under its control in the South China Sea.

    Beijing again blasted it as a serious “provocation” demonstrating that the US is a “destroyer of peace and stability” – in repetition of prior condemnations. It follows a more rare July 13 incident wherein the US destroyer entered waters off the Chinese military occupied Paracel Islands, and then last Saturday a sail-by of the Spratly Islands.

    US Navy image: Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold (DDG-65) on June 24, 2022

    The US Navy’s 7th Fleet again affirmed “commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” and that the US destroyer has challenged China’s “excessive maritime claims”

    A Navy spokesman, Lt. Nicholas Lingo Benfold, said the transit occurred “through a corridor in the strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal state.”

    China in turn, said its Eastern Theater Command closely monitored the ship’s movement, citing “risks” to Chinese national security:

    “The frequent provocations and showing-off by the US fully demonstrate that the US is the destroyer of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the creator of security risks in the Taiwan Strait,” said Col. Shi Yi, spokesman for the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command.

    “The theater troops maintain high alert at all times and will resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

    The Navy’s interpretation is that it never violated the 12 nautical miles extending from China’s coastline; however, Beijing has over the last month begun openly questioning to US officials that the “international waters” designation doesn’t apply to the strait (given Chinese claims over the island of Taiwan).

    “Chinese officials have made such remarks repeatedly in meetings with US counterparts in recent months,” Bloomberg reported in June. The international legal status of the passageway wasn’t previously center of debate as it is now:

    While China regularly protests US military moves in the Taiwan Strait, the legal status of the waters previously wasn’t a regular talking point in meetings with American officials.

    Looming large in the background of all this is House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s reported upcoming trip to Taiwan. Though not “official” yet, Politico and others are citing sources who say the trip will happen in August, after in April she canceled last minute, reportedly over a Covid diagnosis.

    Chinese state pundits are saying this alone could be the spark that ignites war…

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    Beijing is further demanding that the Biden administration cancel a proposed 5th arms package for Taiwan, announced worth an estimated $108 million, saying it violates the One China principle and risks dangerous escalation.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 20:40

  • Oath Keepers Seek Trial Delay Due To "Slurs" And "Outrageous Claims" From House Jan 6 Committee
    Oath Keepers Seek Trial Delay Due To “Slurs” And “Outrageous Claims” From House Jan 6 Committee

    Authored by Joseph Hanneman via The Epoch Times,

    A group of Oath Keepers defendants has renewed a call for a change of venue or a trial delay due to “undeniable prejudice” from the negative publicity generated by the House January 6 Select Committee.

    A motion (pdf) filed in U.S. District Court ripped the work of the Jan. 6 Select Committee as “highly inflammatory and prejudicial” for peddling “outrageous claims” about the Oath Keepers and defendants in the Jan. 6 prosecution.

    “The Rhodes defendants renew their request for a change of venue in this matter or, in the alternative, to continue the current trial date until 2023 based upon the undeniable prejudice that exists in this District’s jury pool following recent congressional hearings,” the motion reads, referring to Oath Keepers founder Elmer Stewart Rhodes III.

    District Judge Amit Mehta previously denied an Oath Keepers motion to change the trial venue from Washington D.C. to Virginia.

    “These hearings—particularly the most recent one—have caused irreparable harm to the ability of the Rhodes defendants to obtain a fair trial in the District,” the motion said.

    A televised Select Committee hearing on July 12 focused heavily on the Oath Keepers and made a range of accusations against the group. This included assertions not made in any charging documents from the criminal case.

    Deny ‘Outrageous Claims’

    The motion was particularly critical of Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Maryland), who said the Oath Keepers are “extremists who promote a wide range of conspiracy theories and sought to act as a private paramilitary force for Donald Trump.”

    Oath Keepers founder Elmer Stewart Rhodes III previously said the Jan. 6 Select Committee is not looking for truth. (Epoch TV)

    In his opening statement at the hearing, Raskin contended that the events of Jan. 6, 2021, were perpetrated by “the dangerous extremists in the Oath Keepers, the Proud Boys and other far-right racist and white nationalist groups spoiling for a fight.”

    “To be clear, the Rhodes defendants dispute Raskin’s outrageous claims,” the motion said.

    “They dispute that they are ‘racists,’ ‘white supremacists,’ or ‘domestic extremists.’ They dispute that they had an alliance with the Proud Boys to attack the Capitol. They dispute that there was a plan to attack the Capitol. They dispute that there was an ‘insurrection’ on J6.”

    A superseding indictment filed on June 22 in Washington D.C. federal court accuses Rhodes and eight others of a variety of January 6-related crimes, including seditious conspiracy, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, civil disorder, and destruction of government property. The first group of Oath Keepers is scheduled for trial on Sept. 26.

    Defendants include Rhodes, Kelly Meggs, Kenneth Harrelson, Jessica Watkins, Roberto Minuta, Joseph Hackett, David Moerschel, Thomas Caldwell, and Edward Vallejo. They have all pleaded not guilty to the charges.

    ‘False and Incendiary’ Testimony

    The motion disputed “false and incendiary” testimony given at the July 12 hearing by Jason Van Tatenhove, a one-time spokesman for the Oath Keepers.

    Van Tatenhove claimed the Oath Keepers are a “violent militia” and a “very dangerous organization,” the motion said. Van Tatenhove claimed former President Donald Trump was “communicating, whether directly or indirectly” with Rhodes. The motion said Van Tatenhove has had no contact with Rhodes for five years.

    “Van Tatenhove’s claim that the Oath Keepers intended to start a ‘bloody revolution’ on J6 is now seared into the minds of the District’s jury pool as fact,” said the motion, written by attorney David Fischer. “Additionally, a two-minute search of his Twitter account reveals that Van Tatenhove is a staunch left-wing activist tied to causes such as gun control, feminism, and climate change, and who regularly does a ‘counter-culture’ podcast.”

    Former Oath Keepers member Jason Van Tatenhoven testifies before the Jan. 6 Select Committee on July 12, 2022. (Select Committee/YouTube)

    Van Tatenhove has admitted he joined the Oath Keepers so he could write a book about the organization, the motion said. He is selling an audiobook on the Oath Keepers, the document said.

    “Yet the D.C. jury pool knows none of this discrediting information, or even that Van Tatenhove has publicly claimed to have had multiple encounters with UFOs,” the motion read.

    The House committee’s meetings are not truly hearings, the motion said, because witnesses are not subjected to cross-examination and evidence includes “carefully edited excerpts” from videos and depositions.

    “The Committee’s witnesses are asked leading questions or questions to which the answer is clearly already known,” the motion said, “however, the Committee does not subject the witnesses to cross-examination nor does it even attempt to provide mitigation, context, or other information that might produce a neutralized or mitigated version.”

    ‘Likely Inadmissable’

    Oath Keepers defense attorneys also took aim at federal prosecutors for publicly filing a motion containing “incendiary, dubious spin” on “likely inadmissible evidence.”

    In a motion filed July 8, prosecutors said they will offer evidence that Oath Keepers member Jeremy Brown brought explosives to the area on January 6. Brown is not part of the Rhodes criminal case. Brown has said he was charged with January 6 crimes because he refused an FBI attempt to recruit him as an informant.

    Prosecutors also alleged that defendant Caldwell kept a “death list” of Georgia election officials. The motion said that the document “is not a ‘list’ but, rather, a doodle pad where the words ‘death list’ are written separate and apart from, and in different ink than, the names of Georgia election workers.”

    The January 6 Select Committee said it plans to release more than 1,000 transcripts of interviews and depositions from its investigation. “While a portion of the transcripts to be released by the committee will have no relevance to the Rhodes defendants, defense counsel predict that many transcripts will be highly relevant and potentially exculpatory in nature,” the motion said.

    The motion cited a delay granted to a group of Proud Boys defendants in June because of potential adverse effects from the Select Committee’s hearings. That trial was moved to December.

    “…Tuesday’s hearing generated a mountain of prejudicial press coverage that has served to prejudice further an already heavily biased jury pool,” the filing said. “Moreover, the committee will be holding an additional hearing and intends to issue a detailed report in September which, again, will thrust J6 and the prejudicial assertions about the Oath Keepers back into the spotlight, just before a jury is to be picked.”

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 20:20

  • 200 Million Americans Facing Brutal Heat Raises Alarm Over Power Grid Stability
    200 Million Americans Facing Brutal Heat Raises Alarm Over Power Grid Stability

    According to The Weather Channel, more than 200 million Americans will experience temperatures over 90 degrees Fahrenheit through the end of the week. 

    At least 105 million people in 28 states across the Central and Northeast US are under heat advisories or warnings.

    “Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect this morning throughout 28 states, stretching from California to New Hampshire. High temperatures into the 90s and 100s will increase the risk of heat related illnesses,” the National Weather Service said. 

    Metro areas like Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa could be much hotter than the rest of the country. The three could record temperatures above 110 degrees Fahrenheit. 

    “Another day of exceptional heat lies ahead with triple-digit highs forecast for all of North and Central Texas,” NWS in Fort Worth wrote in a weather note. 

    So what’s behind the scorching hot temperatures? We told readers two weeks ago that a strong heat dome was stuck over Central US, baking tens of millions of people in above-normal to new record high temperatures. Now the heat dome is broadening, headed to the Mid-Atlantic and North East. 

    The Washington–Baltimore metropolitan area to New York could see the hottest weather all summer this week. 

    With two-thirds of the country facing extreme heat, cooling demand is surging, which could strain power grids across the country. Texas has asked customers to restrict power usage several times, and factories have dialed back production to conserve power. 

    Natural gas futures jumped as high as 10% to $8/mmbtu on Nymex as millions of households and businesses turned down their thermostats, fueling demand for power-plant fuel.

    Before summer, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a regulatory body that manages grid stability, released an alarming report about increasing heatwaves and risks of rolling blackouts across the country. 

    Will America’s power grids survive this brutal summer? 

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 20:00

  • ESG Funds Are Quietly Buying Oil Stocks
    ESG Funds Are Quietly Buying Oil Stocks

    By Tim Quinson, Bloomberg ESG reporter and analyst

    Managers of environmental, social and governance funds are starting to shift a larger portion of their assets to oil and gas producers, especially in Europe.

    European-based ESG equity funds have been increasing their investments in energy companies, including Shell Plc, Repsol SA, Aker BP ASA and Neste Oyj, according to analysts at Bank of America Corp. About 6% of the funds invested in Shell this year, compared with none in 2021.

    The allocations are driven by the outperformance of fossil-fuel stocks — the S&P 500 Energy Index is up 30% this year — along with optimism that the world’s biggest oil and gas companies will spend more to make the transition to cleaner energy.

    Shell, TotalEnergies SE and Equinor ASA are among the companies that have evaluated the suitability of European utilities for takeovers, according to people familiar with the matter. Potential targets include some of the region’s largest wind and solar producers, such as Iberdrola SA, Orsted A/S and SSE Renewables Ltd.

    The Robeco QI Emerging Conservative Equities fund, which adheres to Article 8 of the EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation, holds shares of carbon-intensive companies China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (Sinopec) and PetroChina Co.

    Managers of the $2.2 billion fund justify those holdings based on their three-year plan to actively encourage Sinopec and PetroChina to boost their sustainability performance. If that engagement works, Robeco says it will raise its equity position in each of the companies. If not, it probably will divest.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 19:40

  • First Responders At Fatal PA Tesla Wreck Disassemble Vehicle Before Moving It "To Avoid Electrocution"
    First Responders At Fatal PA Tesla Wreck Disassemble Vehicle Before Moving It “To Avoid Electrocution”

    Yet another day, yet another Tesla wreck – the latest comes from Pine Township, PA, north of the Pittsburgh suburbs. 

    A local doctor was killed on the 300 block of Wexford Bayne Road in the township last weekend after the Tesla they were driving “hit a mailbox, went airborne and then landed, overturning into a creek in nearby woods,” according to 11 News

    The doctor who was killed was a passenger at the time of the accident. 

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    Perhaps just as alarming as the crash were first responders’ reactions in dealing with the electric vehicle, which had been badly mangled due to the wreck.

    The report says it took two hours for a towing company to get the car out of the ditch and that crews had to disassemble the car before removing it, in order to avoid electrocution. 

    As of right now, speed is listed as a “contributing factor” in the crash, but no further details have become available. Local reporting from 11 News on the wreck can be viewed at the embedded video at this link

    We will update this story as developments occur…

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 19:20

  • Current Flu Season More Severe Than COVID: Australian State Premier
    Current Flu Season More Severe Than COVID: Australian State Premier

    Authored by Rebecca Zhu via The Epoch Times,

    New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet has called for a reduction in the seven-day isolation period adding that the winter influenza virus currently posed a bigger issue than COVID-19.

    “In many cases at the moment, the current strand of influenza is more severe than the current strands of COVID,” the premier told 2GB radio.

    He later added that the state was currently experiencing “one of the worst flu seasons we’ve ever had” and urged people to get a flu shot.

    Perrottet also advocated for reducing the mandatory isolation period after a person tests positive for COVID-19, noting that health advice states COVID will remain for at least a “couple of years.”

    “So in those circumstances, we need to look at isolation requirements in a way that puts downward still maintains downward pressure on our health system,” he said.

    The premier said considerations for other competing health issues, educational outcomes, and opportunities to go to work also need to be balanced as the country moves to the next phase of the pandemic.

    In response, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said it was “not the time” to for the changing of the COVID-19 isolation period.

    “Well, we had that discussion. And the advice that is there from the chief medical officer, Professor [Paul] Kelly, was that now is certainly not the time for that to be reconsidered,” Albanese told FiveAA radio.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (L) and NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet meet with emergency response leaders at the NSW Rural Fire Service headquarters in Homebush Bay in Sydney, Australia, on July 6, 2022. (James Brickwood-Pool/Getty Images)

    Returned Pandemic Leave Payments

    The comments come after the prime minister capitulated to reinstate pandemic leave payments that originally ended on June 30.

    “I want to make sure that people aren’t left behind, that vulnerable people are looked after, and that no one is faced with the unenviable choice of not being able to isolate properly without losing an income and without being put in a situation that is very difficult,” Albanese told reporters on July 16.

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers defended the extension of the program after the federal government previously ruled it out due to budget pressures.

    He said the decision was made due to a change in health advice following a new wave of COVID-19 cases.

    The payment scheme will be funded in a 50-50 split between state and federal governments.

    There are also renewed calls for the return of mask mandates, however, the prime minister previously indicated that it would be up to the discretion of the states.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 19:00

  • Feds Eye Criminal Charges For Hunter Biden As Probe Reaches 'Critical Stage'
    Feds Eye Criminal Charges For Hunter Biden As Probe Reaches ‘Critical Stage’

    The Department of Justice is weighing possible charges against Hunter Biden, after investigations into his business dealings and false statements involving his purchase of a gun have reached a ‘critical juncture,’ CNN (!?) reports.

    Sources say that the probe has intensified in recent months ‘with discussions among Delaware-based prosecutors, investigators running the probe and officials at Justice Department headquarters.’

    While no final decision has been made, the possibility of dropping charges on Hunter would put a longstanding guideline to avoid bringing politically sensitive cases close to an election.

    Discussions recently have centered around possibly bringing charges that could include alleged tax violations and making a false statement in connection with Biden’s purchase of a firearm at a time he would have been prohibited from doing so because of his acknowledged struggles with drug addiction.

    Adding to the pressure, Republicans in Congress have already announced that if they take over the House of Representatives after the midterm elections, they plan to launch new investigations and hold hearings to examine the conduct of Hunter Biden and others in the Biden family. -CNN

    The debate over whether to bring the case this close to midterms has revolved around the fact that Joe Biden isn’t on the ballot

    While the DOJ probe initially focused on Hunter Biden’s financial and business activities in foreign countries while his father was vice president, investigators had expanded the scope to include whether Hunter and associates violated money laundering, campaign finance, tax and foreign lobbying laws – and whether he broke federal firearm and other regulations, according to multiple sources.

    These matters have been narrowed down to tax and gun-related charges – which means the Biden family will likely be shielded from scrutiny over improper business dealings which leveraged Joe Biden’s position of power – and which Joe Biden provably lied about discussing with Hunter.

    So Hunter gets a pass on all this?

    In March, CBS News‘ Catherine Herridge reported that two associates of the younger Biden testified before a grand jury last fall about a shady, now-bankrupt Chinese energy company linked to the infamous “10 for the big guy” from Hunter’s emails.

    “Federal officials are looking at his foreign business dealings, including his ties to a Chinese energy company,” said “CBS Mornings” host Tony Dokoupil.

    “The investigation began as a tax inquiry years ago and has expanded into a federal probe involving the FBI and IRS,” Herridge added. “A source familiar with the investigation now tells CBS News, two men who worked with Hunter Biden when his father was Vice President were called to the grand jury last fall.”

    According to records reviewed by CBS along with congressional documents, the feds are looking at “multiple financial transactions involving an energy company called CEFC. Republicans accuse the business of being an arm of the Chinese government. In 2017, the year Joe Biden left the Vice Presidency, a $1 million retainer was signed with a Chinese energy company for Hunter Biden’s services as a lawyer.

    His client, a CEFC official, Patrick Ho, was later convicted on international bribery and money laundering charges on unrelated work in Africa.”

    For those who’ve been keeping up with our reporting since October 2020 when the Hunter Biden laptop story broke (and was immediately suppressed by the media), CEFC was the company that the Bidens allegedly accepted a $5 million interest-free loan that enraged their business partner, Tony Bobulinski – who flipped on the Bidens following a Senate report which revealed the $5 million ‘loan.’

    According to the former Biden insider, he was introduced to Joe Biden by Hunter, and they had an hour-long meeting where they discussed the Biden’s business plans with the Chinese, with which he says Joe was “plainly familiar at least at a high level.”

    Text messages from Bobulinski also reveal an effort to conceal Joe Biden’s involvement in Hunter’s business dealings, while Tony has also confirmed that the “Big guy” described in a leaked email is none other than Joe Biden himself.

     “You can imagine my shock when reading the report yesterday put out by the Senate committee.  The fact that you and HB were lying to Rob, James and I while accepting $5 MM from Cefc is infuriating,” wrote Bobulinski to Jim Biden. (Via the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross):

    CEFC was paying Hunter $850,00 per year according to an email from Biden business associate James Gilliar to Bobulinksi – which is also the source of the “10 held by H for the big guy” email.

    Emails obtained by the New York Post show that Hunter “pursued lucrative deals involving China’s largest private energy company — including one that he said would be “interesting for me and my family.”” according to the report.

    You can read more on Hunter and the CEFC here. As an aside, but of course not coincidental we’re sure, the Clinton Foundation accepted a donation between $50,001 and $100,000 from CEFC.

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    But yes, let’s focus on Hunter’s tax evasion and gun issues.

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 18:51

  • Biden Approval Rating Hits New All-Time Low Of 31%, Now 'Underwater' With Own Party
    Biden Approval Rating Hits New All-Time Low Of 31%, Now ‘Underwater’ With Own Party

    Just when you thought President Joe Biden’s approval rating couldn’t get any worse, a new Quinnipac University poll released Wednesday reveals it’s dropped to all-time lows, 71% of voters don’t want him to run again in 2024 – including a majority of Democrats (54%). 

    Comparatively speaking, 60% of voters don’t want to see former President Donald Trump run again, though this figure includes just 27% of Republicans.

    Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy stated alongside the polling results, “There’s scant enthusiasm for a replay of either a Trump or Biden presidency. But while Trump still holds sway on his base, President Biden is underwater when it comes to support from his own party.

    When asked if the election were held today which party the voters would like to see control the U.S. House of Representatives, they were torn between parties with a roughly 50-50 split. –Fox News

    Just 28% of those polled said they approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, with 66% disapproving. 

    The top concern among Americans, as with most recent polls, has been inflation – which is currently at a 40-year high of 9.1%.

    And when one looks at an aggregate of polls from RealClear Politics, it’s abundantly clear that Biden is absolutely cratering here.

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    Perhaps Biden’s gaffes (or accidental truth-telling) should be of greater concern as well – as the 79-year-old president said on Wednesday that he has cancer because his mother used windshield wipers to remove oil from their car’s windshield.

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    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 18:40

  • Battery Replacement Of Family's EV Ford Focus Would Cost More Than Car Itself
    Battery Replacement Of Family’s EV Ford Focus Would Cost More Than Car Itself

    Authored by Lorenz Duschamps via The Epoch Times,

    A Florida family who just a few months ago purchased a battery-powered vehicle learned an unforgettable lesson after their car suddenly stopped working.

    The parents of Avery Siwinski, a 17-year-old of St. Petersburg, spent $11,000 on a used 2014 Ford Focus Electric that had 60,000 miles at the time it was bought, WTSP-TV reported.

    “In March, it started giving an alert,” Siwinski told the network.

    “And then we took it to the shop and it stopped running.”

    After taking the car to a local Ford dealership, the family learned that the mechanical issues were linked to the vehicle’s battery, which apparently needed to be replaced.

    The repair bill for the battery was a whopping $14,000, said Siwinski’s grandfather, who stepped in to help her with the car problems because her father passed away in June due to cancer.

    He also noted that the figure presented by mechanics wasn’t even the total, as it didn’t include labor costs.

    However, the family found out that all the hustle they went through was in vain, as there weren’t any batteries of that type available anymore because the Ford model is discontinued.

    “Then we found out the batteries aren’t even available,” Siwinski said.

    “So it didn’t matter. They could cost twice as much and we still couldn’t get it.”

    The family shared the story to issue a warning to people who were thinking about buying an electric vehicle.

    “If you’re buying a new one, you have to realize there is no second-hand market right now because the manufacturers are not supporting the cars,” Siwinski’s grandfather told WTSP-TV.

    According to a recent Consumer Reports survey, the vast majority of the driving public in the United States prefers to use traditional gas-powered vehicles, citing charging logistics, driving distance, and maintenance costs as the biggest reasons why they wouldn’t want to own an electric car.

    Meanwhile, a recent report from data analysis and advisory firm J.D. Power found that electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids may have more problems than internal combustion engines.

    While internal combustion engine vehicles averaged 175 problems per 100 vehicles, this jumped to 239 among plug-in hybrids and 240 among electric vehicles, a June 28 press release of the J.D. Power 2022 U.S. Initial Quality Study stated. Lower scores represent higher-quality vehicles.

    Tesla models, which were included in the industry calculation for the first time, averaged 226 problems per 100 vehicles, according to the report.

    “Automakers continue to launch vehicles that are more and more technologically complex in an era in which there have been many shortages of critical components to support them,” said David Amodeo, director of global automotive at J.D. Power, according to the press release.

    Amid elevated gas prices, White House officials have continued to suggest that Americans buy an electric car as Republicans have criticized the Biden administration’s policies for the spike in gas prices.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 18:20

  • Russia Declares War Goals Have Expanded After West Pumped More Arms Into Ukraine
    Russia Declares War Goals Have Expanded After West Pumped More Arms Into Ukraine

    With the Donbas region now largely under control of Russian forces five months into the invasion… is Moscow setting its sights on the rest of Ukraine? It appears this could be the case, based on provocative Wednesday remarks by Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, captured in a fresh FT report.

    “Russia’s foreign minister said Moscow had expanded its war aims for its invasion of Ukraine, the strongest sign yet that it seeks to annex parts of the country currently under its control,” FT introduces, citing that:

    Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Russia’s goals were more ambitious than Moscow had declared at the start of the war in February, when it claimed its goal was to “liberate” the eastern Donbas border region. Moscow’s war aims now extend to the provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine, which are mostly occupied by Russian forces, Lavrov said.

    Source: EPA/Shutterstock

    Lavrov also said a “number of other territories” are additionally included in the new war aims, though without naming them.

    President Vladimir Putin and his top generals within the opening two months of the war made it clear that a central goal was to “liberate” the Donbas region, but speculation has since abounded over whether the Kremlin would keep going beyond this territory.

    Some political analysts in the West – the University of Chicago’s John Mearsheimer foremost among them – have stated their belief that Moscow initially sought to limit operations to the East, in defense of the pro-Russian breakaway republics; however, Mearsheimer has argued that many variables have likely caused Putin to expand beyond these initial goals. Chief among the battlefield variables remains Washington and the West’s continually escalating involvement, especially in weapons shipments – including longer range missile systems.

    Lavrov alluded to this in his Wednesday comments, “If the west continues to pump Ukraine full of weaponry out of impotent rage or a desire to exacerbate the situation [ . . .] then that means our geographical tasks will move even further from the current line,” he said.

    The conditional, ‘warning message’ nature of his wording suggests that the Kremlin may not have extended the goal posts just yet. Lavrov referenced that the conflict is “an ongoing process” during the statements.

    On Tuesday a White House statement condemned what it called Russia’s “annexation playbook” amid reports the Kremlin is installing pro-Russian officials and administrations in towns and cities now under its control. Russian media has also previewed potential “referendums” in these territories akin to Crimea in 2014.

    And on Wednesday the Pentagon confirmed it is sending Ukraine four more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) as part the next round of security assistance, according to the words of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

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    Thus the ongoing proxy war looks to grow hotter in at least the near term before any possibility of compromise is taken seriously by either side. The Ukrainian government responded to Lavrov’s latest words by reasserting that it will not sit down with the Russians at the negotiating table. “Russians want blood, not talks,” FM Dmytro Kuleba said, and urged yet more sanctions, more pressure to ramp up on Moscow from the West.

    Tyler Durden
    Wed, 07/20/2022 – 18:00

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