• Former Federal 'Informant' Warned Of Antifa, BLM Infiltrators At Capitol On Jan. 6
  Former Federal ‘Informant’ Warned Of Antifa, BLM Infiltrators At Capitol On Jan. 6

  Authored by Joseph M. Hanneman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The man whose posting on social media warned authorities that agent provocateurs from Antifa and Black Lives Matter would be at the U.S. Capitol dressed as Trump supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, is a self-described government informant tied to former deputy attorney general Rod Rosenstein.

  

  Rosenstein warned about a “soft coup” against then-President Donald Trump in fall 2020.

  On Jan. 4, 2021, an account under the name @JohnHereToHelp posted on Twitter that Antifa and BLM agitators were being bussed from Baltimore to Washington to cause trouble at the Capitol on the day of Trump’s speech at the Ellipse.

  “Pantifa/BLM, Balt./DC branches, are already bussing people in to disturb Jan. 6,” the post read. “Orders [were] given to dress like ‘MAGA,’ blend in [and] cause trouble, especially around cameras. At night, arson has been ordered. All to be blamed on Trump supporters attending. Please be careful.”

  The post caught the attention of an assistant commander in the Intelligence and Counterterrorism Branch of the United States Park Police, who forwarded it to officials at the U.S. Capitol Police, the D.C. Metropolitan Police Department, the Department of Homeland Security, and other agencies.

  The now-suspended Twitter account belonged to Ryan Dark White, also known as Jon McGreevey.

  McGreevey has described himself in court papers and interviews as a former Department of Justice informant who supplied information on corruption in the federal government, law enforcement, and the Trump administration.

  He once used the name Ryan White as a cover but now identifies as McGreevey. He is running for federal office in Maryland.

  JohnHereToHelp’s original post was shared more than 6,000 times before it hit the radar of the Park Police.

  At the time, McGreevey had more than 120,000 followers on Twitter, according to an archived version of his page stored at the Wayback Machine.

  Twitter later suspended his account.

  “There are multiple replies to this comment that says BLM/Antifa will wear MAGA hats backwards, wear camo, and attempt to blend in with MAGA crowd,” the Park Police official wrote to his colleagues on January 5, 2021.

  The Wayback Machine archive of White’s post shows nearly 600 replies, but the replies are not visible from links on the website.

  Infiltrator Warning

  The emails, part of a trove of documents obtained in 2021 through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit by Judicial Watch, show that federal law enforcement knew that infiltrators could be among the crowds at the Capitol.

  They also back up anecdotal reports of BLM and Antifa activists from Oregon, Maryland, and other states causing disruption and committing vandalism on Jan. 6.

  Trump supporters tangled with alleged Antifa provocateurs in several spots on Jan. 6, including the Lower West Terrace of the Capitol.

  Victoria White of Rochester, Minnesota, scuffled with a man attempting to break an arched window adjacent to the Capitol’s tunnel entrance.

  As the tightly-packed crowd chanted “[expletive] Antifa,” White wrestled for control of the red wooden club wielded by the man, who wore a green helmet with Trump stickers.

  “I’m like, ‘We don’t do that. We don’t do that. Trump supporters, we don’t do that,’” White told The Epoch Times in an interview for an upcoming documentary, “The Real Story of January 6,” on Epoch TV.

  “And then there’s other people [who said] ‘No, we’re all on the same team.’ I’m like, ‘No. No, we’re not.’

  

  “Who brings something like that to a Trump rally, let alone to break out the Capitol windows?” White said. “That’s not us. That’s not what patriot Americans do. We don’t do that stuff.”

  After another man got control of the club and began smashing the window, White helped pull him down before she was pulled away by other bystanders.

  Members of the crowd vented anger at the vandals. “We are not Antifa!” one protester shouted. A man with a green stocking cap pulled over his MAGA hat pulled what appeared to be a stereo speaker from a backpack, spurring more howls of protest from the crowd.

  At the same window, the crowd shouted at a man dressed all in black. “No, no, Antifa!” a woman yelled from the crowd. “Antifa’s breaking the windows! Antifa’s breaking the windows!”

  While conducting a live stream on January 6, independent journalist Tayler Hansen recognized a protester in a gas mask from her appearance at riots in Portland, Oregon.

  “I recognize you from Portland,” Hansen told the woman as she quickly turned away from the camera.

  “So you’ve got Antifa here, too. You have Antifa and Trump supporters within the same vicinity here for the same thing. This is absolutely [expletive] crazy.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 23:30

• Which Countries Are Dominating Space?
  Which Countries Are Dominating Space?

  Believe it or not, there is a lot of stuff in space. In fact, our atmosphere is filled with more than 11,000 objects that have been launched since the foray into space began.

  The Space Race started during the Cold War, and early on the Soviet Union dominated when it came to the amount of devices and objects launched into our atmosphere. But, as Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop details below, a few years ago, the U.S. took back that title with Elon Musk’s SpaceX helping lead the charge.

  This visual, using data from Our World in Data, breaks down the amount of objects launched into space by country over time.

  

  What Gets Launched Into Space?

  What are the objects being sent into our atmosphere and why are they so important? Here’s a look at just a few:

  • Satellites

  • Crewed spacecraft

  • Probes

  • Space station flight equipment

  Probes and landers like the Mars Rover, for example, have helped scientists explore other planets. Satellites provide us with everyday necessities like cell phone service, far reaching television signals, satellite imagery, and GPS.

  As of late 2021, there were around 4,852 operational satellites in orbit—2,944 belonging to the United States. Here’s a quick look at what the U.S. uses its satellites for:

  • Commercial: 2,516

  • Military: 230

  • Government: 168

  • Civil: 30

  Many satellites in orbit, however, are no longer functional. In fact, there is a lot of junk in space—according to NASA, there are over 27,000 pieces of space debris in orbit.

  The Space Race, by Country

  The venture into outer space began during the Cold War when the USSR launched the first satellite, Sputnik 1 in 1957. After this, the U.S. and Soviet Union entered a definitive competition between technological advancements and scientific exploration into space—an extension of the battle between political ideologies.

  Few countries have come close in matching either the U.S. or Russia so far. Here’s a look at the cumulative number of objects different countries have launched into orbit and beyond.

  

   

  One important disclaimer here is that not all of these countries have orbital launch capabilities, meaning that although the satellite in space may belong to a certain country, that doesn’t mean that it was launched by said country. For example, the UK’s first launch in 1971 was out of Australia and France’s first launch took place in Algeria in 1965.

   

  In total, around 86 countries have attempted some kind of entry into space. However, as of 2022, only 11 countries have the ability to send objects into space using their own launch vehicles, and only three—the U.S., Russia, and China—have ever launched people into outer space.

  The Future of Space

  With corporations beginning to take the lead in this new frontier, the landscape of space launches is changing. In 2019 Starlink, a constellation of satellites which provides 36 countries with internet access, was launched. With over 2,200 Starlink satellites in the sky and counting, SpaceX’s ultimate goal is global internet coverage; China is planning a similar venture.

  Beyond useful satellites and scientific exploration, other potential space industries are emerging.

  As one example, the business of commercial space tourism is no longer a futuristic concept. In late 2021, famous billionaire and founder of Virgin Galactic, Richard Branson flew briefly into space on a private flight. Jeff Bezos, having founded Blue Origin, followed shortly after.

  Today, both Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic are licensed by the Federal Aviation Administration for passenger space travel. However, if you want to be launched into space, it will cost you around $250,000-$500,000.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 23:00

• Uvalde Mayor Disputes Report That Says Officer Had Early Chance To Shoot Gunman
  Uvalde Mayor Disputes Report That Says Officer Had Early Chance To Shoot Gunman

  Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The mayor of Uvalde, Texas, is disputing a report that said a police officer had an opportunity to shoot the man who entered an elementary school in the town in May before he entered the school.

  “No Uvalde police department officer saw the shooter on May 24 prior to him entering the school. No Uvalde police officers had any opportunity to take a shot at the gunman,” Mayor Don McLaughlin said in a statement to news outlets.

  

  Experts with the Advanced Law Enforcement Rapid Response Training (ALERRT) Center at Texas State University said in a report published July 6 that an officer with the Uvalde Police Department “observed the suspect carrying a rifle outside the west hall entry” to the building he eventually entered at Robb Elementary School.

  “The officer, armed with a rifle, asked his supervisor for permission to shoot the suspect. However, the supervisor either did not hear or responded too late. The officer turned to get confirmation from his supervisor and when he turned back to address the suspect, he had entered the west hallway unabated,” the report said.

  The revelation was cited in an officer statement relayed to the experts by an unnamed officer who has been part of the investigation into the law enforcement response to the shooting, which left 19 students and two teachers dead.

  McLaughlin, though, said the officer did not spot the shooter.

  “A Uvalde Police Department officer saw someone outside, but was unsure of who he saw and observed children in the area as well. Ultimately, it was a coach with children on the playground, not the shooter,” he said.

  ALERRT did not respond to a request for comment, nor did the Uvalde Police Department (UPD).

  

  Other Details

  Ricardo Rios, chief deputy of the Zavala County Sheriff’s Office, previously said that multiple officers could have fired at the shooter but chose not to because there were kids playing nearby and they feared striking the kids.

  The experts at ALERRT, which trains officers around the nation in how to respond effectively to active shooter situations, said that the officer who observed the shooter outside “was justified in using deadly force to stop the attacker,” noting Texas penal code says an individual is justified in using such force when they reasonably believe it would stop murder and other serious crimes.

  “In this instance, the UPD officer would have heard gunshots and/or reports of gunshots and observed an individual approaching the school building armed with a rifle. A reasonable officer would conclude in this case, based upon the totality of the circumstances, that use of deadly force was warranted,” the report stated.

  The officer was approximately 148 yards from the door to the building that the shooter eventually used to enter. That distance “is well within the effective range” of an AR-15, the type of gun the officer was armed with, the experts said.

  “The officer did comment that he was concerned that if he missed his shot, the rounds could have penetrated the school and injured students. We also note that current State of Texas standards for patrol rifle qualifications do not require officers to fire their rifles from more than 100 yards away from the target. It is, therefore, possible that the officer had never fired his rifle at a target that was that far away,” they also said. “Ultimately, the decision to use deadly force always lies with the officer who will use the force. If the officer was not confident that he could both hit his target and of his backdrop if he missed, he should not have fired.”

  Zero Hedge
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 22:30

• Mapped: Average Wind Speead Across The US
  Mapped: Average Wind Speead Across The US

  Wind energy is a hot topic in North America and around the world as a decarbonization tool, but full utilization requires a lot of wind.

  This graphic from the team at the Woodwell Climate Research Center maps the average wind speed of the continental U.S. based on NOAA data from 2021.

  

  Zooming in, you can examine North America’s wind regions and patterns in great detail.

  Clearly visible is the concentration of high wind speeds in the Great Plains (known as the Prairies in Canada), which has the greatest potential for wind power. You can also follow westerly winds traveling through the North American Cordillera of mountains, including the Rocky Mountains and Cascades.

  Meanwhile, the Eastern U.S. and Canada have significantly lower average wind speeds, especially in the American South. That’s despite hurricanes with extremely high winds occasionally moving northward along the Eastern Seaboard towards the North Atlantic.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 22:00

• Shinzo Abe's Murder Suspect Claims Motive Of His Attack
  Shinzo Abe’s Murder Suspect Claims Motive Of His Attack

  Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The man who allegedly shot dead former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Friday had a military background but denied that his motive was related to Abe’s political beliefs.

  

  Tetsuya Yamagami, 41, was unemployed and had served in the Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) for three years until 2005, according to police.

  He was arrested in the Japanese city of Nara where he allegedly shot Abe, who was delivering a campaign speech ahead of the July 10 upper house election.

  Yamagami, when apprehended, admitted his intention to kill Abe whom he believed was connected to a religious organization that had bankrupted his family, The Asahi Shimbun reported, citing investigative sources.

  “My family joined that religion and our life became harder after donating money to the organization,” Yamagami was quoted as saying by the sources.

  The suspect told investigators that he initially targeted the organization’s leader, “but it was difficult,” so he decided to change target.

  “I took aim at Abe since I believed that he was tied [to the organization]. I wanted to kill him,” he said. Yamagami also admitted that he attempted to make explosives.

  An unnamed source, who was identified as Yamagami’s relative in the report, said the suspect’s family “fell apart” because of the religious group, and that he was “convinced that Yamagami suffered damage from the organization.”

  The suspect used a handmade gun measuring 40 centimeters in length and 20 centimeters in height. Police also found similar guns, explosives, and cylindrical objects during searches at Yamagami’s apartment in Nara.

  Yamagami had previously worked as a dispatched staff worker for multiple companies after resigning from MSDF. He started working at a manufacturing company in the Kansai region in 2020 but left in May for health reasons.

  Abe’s Murder

  Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, was delivering a speech for a Liberal Democratic Party of Japan candidate’s election campaign ahead of upcoming elections when, at around 11:30 a.m., two shots rang out.

  

  A reporter for public broadcaster NHK, who was at the scene, said she heard what sounded like two consecutive gunshots and then saw Abe bleeding.

  Footage aired by the station captured the moment he fell on the street, after which several security guards ran toward him. He was holding his chest.

  The 67-year-old former prime minister was airlifted to a hospital after the shooting and later pronounced dead.

  

  Police reported that Abe died as a result of blood loss. An autopsy revealed that Abe had been shot twice in the upper left arm and neck, as well as another neck wound, the cause of which was unknown, Kyodo News reported.

  Speaking before Abe’s death was announced, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned the shooting.

  “This attack is an act of brutality that happened during the elections—the very foundation of our democracy—and is absolutely unforgivable,” he said.

  Abe served as Japan’s Prime Minister and as the president of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party from 2006 to 2007 and again from 2012 to 2020.

  His latest term was due to end in September 2021 but he resigned in August 2020, citing concerns over his health. He later shared that he had a relapse of ulcerative colitis, an intestinal disease.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 21:30

• All Macau Casinos Will Shut Down Monday As COVID Outbreak Worsens
  All Macau Casinos Will Shut Down Monday As COVID Outbreak Worsens

  The world’s largest gambling hub, Macau, will shutter almost all casinos and non-essential businesses for a week from Monday as an outbreak of COVID-19 spreads across the autonomous region on the south coast of China. 

  AFP quotes Macau’s top city official Andre Cheong in a press conference Saturday who said the gambling hub would enter “static management” between July 11-18, during which casinos will be closed. Only essential businesses like supermarkets, gas stations, and pharmacies will remain open.

  The measure comes as Macau on Saturday reported 71 new COVID infections. A total of 1,374 infections have been recorded since June 18, a low number though high enough for the city to implement mainland China’s strict zero-COVID policy.  

  Last week, authorities closed Macau’s most popular casino, the Grand Lisboa, after 13 infections were reported at the casino/resort complex. 

  Macau is the largest casino hub in the world and trumps Las Vegas. More than half the city’s GDP is derived from the gambling industry, and casinos employ 20% of the population. The curb will deal a hard blow to the town because of the economic impact of enforcing harsh lockdowns and mass testing. 

  The zero-COVID policies (especially locking down Shanghai for two months) have triggered an economic slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy after President Xi Jinping made clear weeks ago that “COVID zero” isn’t going anywhere. Probabilities are waning that Beijing’s 2022 growth target of 5.5% can be achieved because of the lingering threat of new lockdowns. 

  Last week, Bloomberg reported Beijing has opted to unleash a massive 1.5 trillion yuan ($220 billion) of “special” local bonds in the second half of the year for infrastructure spending to offset the downturn. 

  And how will Macau gaming stocks react to the news this weekend — well — we suspect very negatively following an index of casino stocks in the town has failed to find support around a 2015/16 low which points to more downside. 

  

  US casino companies operating in Macau are Wynn Macau Ltd, Sands China Ltd, and MGM China Holdings Ltd, which will likely see lower shares on the news come Monday. 

  “Beyond the virus, the casino industry’s facing other challenges, including a new law that significantly increases government control over operations and Beijing’s crackdown on high-rolling gamblers to curb capital outflow,” Bloomberg adds. 

  The lockdown policy of #CCP has devastated Macau’s economy, no tourist visit and all shops have to be closed.The channel for Chinese to launder money through casinos in Macau has also been completely closed. #Macau has no future under rule of CCP. #TakeDownTheCCP pic.twitter.com/YFjKs7mOuY

  — Meeno (澳喜特战旅) (@Meeno17043089) July 9, 2022

  Is the lockdown more about COVID or ratcheting down on capital outflows?   

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 21:00

• Biden’s Selling Of Oil From Reserve To Hunter Biden-Tied Chinese Firm 'Impeachable': Republicans
  Biden’s Selling Of Oil From Reserve To Hunter Biden-Tied Chinese Firm ‘Impeachable’: Republicans

  Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  

  The Biden administration’s move to sell nearly 1 million barrels of oil reserves to China “defies all common sense” and is benefiting U.S. adversaries at the cost of national interests, said Republican lawmakers, with some calling the action “impeachable.”

  The Department of Energy in April sold 950,000 barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserve to Unipec America, the U.S. arm of China’s largest trading company Unipec, which is wholly owned by China Petrochemical Corporation, also known as Sinopec.

  Sinopec is a state-run Chinese oil and gas enterprise based in Beijing that has been tied to President Joe Biden’s second son, Hunter Biden, whose foreign business transactions have fueled growing scrutiny.

  The sale, though little noticed at the time, is drawing heavy backlash from Republican lawmakers. As the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the world’s largest emergency supply of crude oil, tank to a historic low while Americans nationwide feel the pinch of soaring gas and diesel prices, such a move runs counter to American interests and is putting national security at risk, the officials said.

  “The Biden Administration should not be sending our reserves, which we need for our country, to China. It is foolish and defies all common sense,” Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who in June introduced a bill to ban oil export to China, told The Epoch Times.

  Reps. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) and Mike Loychik (R-Ohio) described the Biden administration’s sale of oil to China as “impeachable.”

  “While you are paying FIVE DOLLARS a gallon at the pump and struggling to pay your electricity bill, Biden just sold one million barrels of our reserved oil to China so his family can make a buck. This is impeachable,” Nehls said on Twitter.

  Hunter Biden Ties

  The Unipec contract was worth $98.135 million, an April 21 report by the Department of Energy shows. Unipec was one of 12 companies that won contracts of the Department of Energy’s second emergency sale, totaling 30 million barrels.

  The department described the action as a step to “address the pain Americans are feeling at the pump” and “lower costs for Americans into the future.”

  

  Sinopec is connected to Hunter through BHR Partners, a private equity firm that Hunter helped to set up. The firm invested a combined 10 billion yuan (roughly $1.5 billion) in 2014 in Sinopec.

  Hunter was an unpaid board member of BHR until April 2020 and held a 10 percent stake in the company as recently as last May, although it’s unclear if he has divested.

  “He has been working to unwind his investment,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters in February when asked about his business shares.

  Besides Unipec, contract awardees also include U.S. oil giants such as ExxonMobil and Chevron, along with three Swiss-based companies. Nine of the companies won bids in a third round of sale of 40 million crude oil barrels in late May.

  ‘Utterly Failed This Country’

  Over 5 million barrels of oil from the emergency reserve were exported to Europe and Asia in June, with at least one shipment to China, according to a Reuters report.

  The national average gas price is down to $4.721 per gallon for Friday, falling 5.8 percent from the $5.016 peak in mid-June, according to AAA. But the price point is still more than 50 percent higher from the same time a year ago.

  “The Biden Administration’s energy policies have utterly failed this country,” Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) told The Epoch Times. “From the Administration’s unwillingness to unleash American energy to shipping our limited reserves to adversaries with ties to Hunter Biden, their decisions have ended American energy independence.”

  “Gas prices sit at historic highs, inflation continues to climb to unprecedented levels, and this Administration continues to deflect their failures and blame everyone but themselves,” Biggs said. “The Biden Administration doesn’t have solutions because they don’t realize they’re the problem.”

  Amid oil price hikes, Biden has accused oil companies of profiteering and demanded gas stations to “[b]ring down the price you are charging at the pump.”

  When asked on July 8 about whether the Biden administration was aware that some of the oil from the SPR could end up going overseas, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that the Department of Energy “can’t dictate what oil companies do with the oil they purchase or where they ship it to sell.”

  “When it comes to the oil, it is something that oil companies decide. We cannot control what oil companies do with their oil,” she said. “You should ask the oil companies about where they are sending the oil they purchase and why. That is not something that we can answer from here.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 20:30

• Taibbi: The Financial Bubble Era Comes Full Circle
  Taibbi: The Financial Bubble Era Comes Full Circle

  Authored by Matt Taibbi via TK News (emphasis ours),

  Subscribers have noticed that it’s been quiet on this site for a while. This is because I spent much of the last month researching the #CryptoCrash, and the last week and a half engaged in an increasingly maddening search for a civilized and respectful way to write about one particular actor: Circle Internet Financial, makers of USDC, at $55 billion the second-biggest stablecoin in the world.

  I’m giving up the hunt for “civilized and respectful.” That dog lived a long life, but it now must be taken out and shot. I’ve dealt with many frustrating institutions, from Bank of America to the press office of the FSB, but none produced such headaches. They’re the mother of all black boxes, and God help anyone invested in them.

  

  Trouble started with one question. On April 12, Circle announced it had raised $400 million with investments from BlackRock, Fidelity, Marshall Wace and Fin Capital, noting BlackRock and Circle had entered into a “broader strategic partnership” that would include “exploring capital market applications for USDC” that would “drive the next evolution of Circle’s growth.” This would involve the establishment of a new, BlackRock-managed, government money market fund, the Circle Reserve Fund, through which BlackRock would become “a primary asset manager of USDC cash reserves.”

  Sources called with concerns. The fund’s registration statement says “shares are only available for purchase by Circle Internet Financial, LLC.” Not only is this unusual — one legal expert I spoke with said he’d “never seen such a fund… available for sale solely to a single entity” — but it raised a potentially troublesome issue for USDC holders. If Circle is to be the sole counterparty to a reserve fund, that would mean reserves would belong to the company, not its users. This could raise the same issue that recently dogged its partner, the digital exchange Coinbase, when it revealed in an SEC filing that “In the event of a bankruptcy, the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings and such customers could be treated as our general unsecured creditors.”

  The firm insisted “your funds are safe with Coinbase,” but as noted in another story coming out today, the damage was done, and the news triggered market mayhem. Coinbase isn’t the same kind of company as Circle, but the issue of bankruptcy remoteness is relevant to both. It’s at the core of the whole dilemma of the cryptocurrency markets. Certainly the question of who actually owns and controls reserve assets exists, or seems to exist. Here Circle is unlike some competitors, whose user agreements specifically spell out that reserves are, say, “fully backed by US dollars held by Paxos Trust Company, LLC,” or “custodied pursuant to the Custody Agreement entered into by and between you and Gemini Trust Company, LLC.” Those describe trust agreements, which are truly bankruptcy remote.

  Circle’s BlackRock fund suggested a different arrangement. Also, the new fund would be “permitted to invest up to one-third of its total assets in reverse repurchase agreements.” Would Circle be making use of that provision?

  After 2008, we learned some firms really hated being boring old depository banks, because regulators didn’t allow them to do anything really risky with giant sums of customer cash they held that could easily earn huge returns at scale. It’s like walking into a casino with a trillion dollars in chips and being barred from all the really fun tables. This is how the so-called “London Whale” episode took place. A wing of JP Morgan Chase called the Chief Investment Office, whose ostensible purpose was to reduce risk at the company, started to make enormous returns of $400 million or more on trades its officers didn’t feel were directional bets at all, but hedges. The company felt these trades were only sort of risky. “We believed that what we were doing at the time was consistent with [American accounting practices],” is how one executive later described their attitude.

  Then those “hedges” turned into giant suckholes of loss, and instead of unwinding them, the bank doubled down, and next thing you knew, they had a $12 billion bomb crater and Elizabeth Warren was screaming at an eye-rolling Jamie Dimon on television.

  After 2008, remember, Chase had the reputation of being Wall Street’s “good bank,” or at least the non-stupid one, with the New York Times even describing Dimon as Barack Obama’s “favorite banker.” But the London Whale episode revealed the company’s extreme impatience with the idea that they owed it to anybody, either regulators or depositors, to refrain from engaging in certain types of risky behavior. This impatience was written all over executives’ faces at subsequent Senate hearings.

  The big tell, always, is when finance executives start giving what one analyst described to me as “nuanced answers to yes and no questions.” In the Whale episode, Michigan Senator Carl Levin had to ask repeatedly if the bank had lied when it said in a public conference call that the chief banking regulator, the OCC, was getting data about those infamous trades on a “regular and recurring basis.” Chase Vice Chairman Douglas Braunstein kept talking around the question, first saying “I believed it to be a true statement at the time” that the bank was being “fully transparent” with regulators, then hedging again and again and again, before finally conceding, “They did not get the detailed positions regularly.”

  Getting back to Circle, I reached out with simple questions. Do USDC holders bear bankruptcy risk, or not? Will they be making money lending their reserves or not? The firm at first was solicitous and seemed anxious to educate about their company structure. Then the answers became contradictory. Then they became “nuanced.” Finally there was so much spin, the company’s name began to make unpleasantly ironic sense.

  For instance, Circle “is not a trust,” but believes it holds funds in trust; USDC both is and is not a virtual currency (it may be a “stored value product”); and in the unlikely event of a bankruptcy, USDC holders would be “shielded from Circle creditors,” although nothing is bullet-proof and of course there’s risk. How are USDC holders shielded from Circle creditors and “separated from a bankruptcy estate”? According to the firm, customers first of all are guarded “per the protections afforded under state money transmission laws.”

  Without being cheeky, this is a little like saying the DMV is making sure you’re driving safely. Moreover, Circle is only regulated in the states where Circle has licenses, and the firm has obtained licenses only in those states were licenses are required (what happens to USDC holders in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Wyoming, for instance?). Beyond that, by their own public admission, “not all states in which we are licensed regulate virtual currency activity as money transmission.”

  Regarding the BlackRock fund’s provision allowing them to borrow up to a third of the reserves, I learned that government money market funds typically do not borrow, but also that the company would enjoy access to the Fed and its repo borrowing program.

  The dealbreaker came after reading Circle’s User Agreement, which contains the following passage:

  Circle is not a fiduciary, and Circle does not provide any trust or fiduciary services to any User in the course of such User visiting, accessing, or using the Circle website or services. 

  I had reason to be surprised to learn that Circle is not a fiduciary and does not provide any trust or fiduciary services. When I expressed that surprise to a Circle spokesperson, recalling certain recent communications involving the exact word, “fiduciary,” their response was:

  The paragraph cited from the Circle Account User Agreement refers to Circle’s custody of supported digital assets in a Circle-hosted wallet, and does not relate to USDC reserves management.

  Answers don’t get much more “nuanced” than this. The company was now saying Circle is not a fiduciary, and does not provide any trust or fiduciary services to anyone visiting, accessing, or using the Circle website or services, unless those services involve the company’s management of USDC reserves. In that case, the firm does believe it has a fiduciary responsibility with respect to reserve funds, as required by state law, ostensibly in those states where Circle both has a license and virtual currency is regulated as money transmission.

  Asked where exactly its reserves are right now, the company replied:

  As we have shared publicly, the cash portion of the reserve is held with a number of banking partners, including Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank and New York Community Bank. The US Treasury bills are purchased by BlackRock, and are held in custody at BNYMellon. We have not published a detailed breakdown of how much cash is held with which bank partner. We are working with many leading banks to onboard them and add them to our group of partners.  

  This is a non-answer. Circle discloses where some of its reserves are, but not all, and not how much of what is where. Now, Circle separately features a Yield program, which offers guaranteed returns. These were never as high as Terra’s preposterous and obviously Ponzoid 20% guaranteed returns, which quickly attracted $60 billion that vanished even more quickly, but the program exists nonetheless, at one time offering 12-month yields as high as 10.75%.

  In the time it’s taken to write this piece the guaranteed return has dropped from 6% to 1% to 0.5%. In characteristic fashion, Circle’s web page on the subject contains both the incorrect statement, “Circle Yield’s interest rates offer superior returns compared to traditional fixed-income investments” like 1 month CDs and 8-week T-bills — this is no longer true — and the correct statement, “In comparison to traditional fixed-income investments, products like Circle Yield can offer superior returns.”

  The company maintains that the program is relatively small, that there “is currently less than $300M in loan volume outstanding for the Circle Yield program,” and “no ‘exposure,’ as we are over-collateralized at 125%.” (It is “over-collateralized” by plummeting Bitcoin). All the same, the company began this past Tuesday, July 5 to allow customers with active loans to withdraw funds from Circle Yield before the conclusion of those loans, with no penalty, until August 2, 2022 at 11:59PM ET. Asked why they did this, the firm said:

  There is currently much uncertainty in the digital asset lending and borrowing markets. Circle Yield is a regulated, 125% overcollareralized, fixed-term product, offered to businesses only, and has performed as designed during these turbulent times, with borrower margin calls being met in a timely fashion to sustain the 125% overcollaterlization. However, we recognize that our customers might wish to withdraw their assets entirely from these markets at this extraordinary time… We have made a one-time change to the legal product structure to enable all our customers to withdraw their funds if they so wish during this time of uncertainty.

  Make of that what you will. Meanwhile, the firm also believes federal bankruptcy laws should protect USDC holders, but this belief depends on the notion, which Circle states for the record, that “USDC reserves are held in segregated accounts for the benefit of USDC holders, not Circle,” and “USDC reserve funds are held for the benefit of USDC token holders,” because “Circle does not and will not use USDC holders’ money to run its business or pay its debts.”

  If Circle does not and will not use USDC holders’ money to run its business, how is it projecting to earn $438 million in revenues from its USDC reserves this year, and over $2.188 billion next year? Again, is USDC a utility-like product content to earn little caring for giant piles of money, or more like a profiteering financial firm that earns money creatively leveraging up its assets? This raises another question that first came up last year. If Circle is holding its reserves in segregated accounts strictly for the benefit of customers, why was it, at least at one time, keeping a not-insignificant portion of its reserves in commercial paper and instruments like Yankee CDs?

  Last summer, after Allaire announced plans to go public via a $4.5 billion SPAC deal, Coinbase said that all of its USDC holdings were “backed by a dollar in a bank account.” As Bloomberg wrote, the promise “was important for the stablecoin, which unlike Bitcoin has a set price and can be redeemed by users for regular currency.”

  However, after being contacted in August by Bloomberg reporter Joe Light, Coinbase president Emilie Choi began issuing a series of amended statements on Twitter, for instance: “We know that a lot of customers get USDC on Coinbase, and we previously said that every USDC is ‘backed by a dollar in a bank account.’ Our language could have been clearer here.”

  Circle then said that it had been backed entirely by cash until March, 2021, when it began to buy U.S. Treasuries to “accommodate the coin’s rapid growth,” as Bloomberg wrote. In fact, the very first time that Circle made a major disclosure in describing its reserve assets, releasing in July of 2021 an attestation by what one former regulator chucklingly called a “grownup” auditor Grant Thornton, it turned out only 61% of its reserves were in cash, with a surprisingly high amount held in riskier or less liquid investments like corporate bonds and commercial paper:

  

  A spokesperson for the company also said that, as the news outlet put it, “the coin’s reserves moved to a broader portfolio of investments in May 2021.” In other words, by a seemingly extraordinary coincidence, Circle only branched out into riskier investments in the exact month before its first major audit-like disclosure, and just before Bloomberg ran a story saying that the “backed by a dollar in a bank account” representation was “not true.”

  The response was brutal. “You can’t market a product with falsities,” Columbia Law School lecturer Lev Menand told Light. Such companies “say trust us and that’s all well and good until there’s a problem,” was how Georgetown professor Adam Levitin put it.

  Circle from there began to make new gestures toward transparency, publishing regular attestations from Grant Thornton, each of which appeared to show moves away from riskier holdings and toward cash and short-term treasuries. For example, in July, 2021, Grant Thornton attested that 47% of the assets backing USDC were cash and cash equivalents, while 16% were in corporate bonds, and 8% were in commercial paper. Within a month the auditor was saying 100% of Circle’s reserves were “cash and cash equivalents,” although “Circle Internet Financial, LLC’s management is responsible for its assertions.” Then in early December, when Allaire testified before congress, he said (emphasis mine):

  The dollar-denominated reserves backing USDC are held conservatively in the care, custody and control of the U.S. regulated banking system. These are strictly held in cash and short-duration U.S. treasuries and we have consistently reported on the status of these reserves and their sufficiency to meet demands for USDC outstanding with third party attestations from a leading global accounting firm.

  Strictly speaking, this wasn’t true. Circle had indeed reported on its reserves, but hadn’t done so in detail until that spring of 2021, when it announced a sudden move into riskier investments. The Grant Thornton attestations soon after began dropping the detailed breakdowns from its reports, and moreover tweaked its language from saying reserve accounts were “correctly stated” to “fairly stated.” These reports include the curious lines, “Circle Internet Financial LLC’s management is responsible for its assertion,” and “Individuals who acquire and utilize USDC tokens and other crypto assets are responsible for informing themselves of the general risks and uncertainties.” The firm in its most recent “report” used the word “opinion” four times and “audit” zero times. Grant Thornton did not respond to requests for clarification as to whether or not they consider these reports audits, though the company, Circle, considers itself audited.

  Circle’s rep has always been as the good crypto, not a target of armies of short-sellers like Tether. As far back as 2018, it made news by ostensibly seeking to become the “first cryptocurrency company to obtain a banking license,” and the company over the years has emphasized that it is “focused on providing even greater transparency, quality and scale for USDC reserves,” because “trust and transparency are our ultimate goals.” Four years after it first declared its intention to be the first coin with a bank license we’re still reading headlines like, “Circle Will Apply for U.S. Crypto Bank Charter in ‘Near Future,’” in the hopes now of becoming the fourth stablecoin to get licensed. The company does not believe current law allows it to become a bank, but similar companies didn’t seem to have had a problem.

  None of this has dented Circle’s momentum or reputation. In fact, in mid-February, Circle and its partner, Bob Diamond’s Concord Acquisition Corporation, announced they were doubling the size of their SPAC (click here for a TK video refresher on what a SPAC is). The February agreement set the value of the new Concord-Circle deal at a whopping $9 billion, with a big chunk of that value, they said, coming from the booming success of USDC in the marketplace:

  The new agreement… reflects improvements in Circle’s financial outlook and competitive position – particularly the growth and market share of USDC, one of the fastest growing dollar digital currencies. USDC’s circulation has more than doubled… reaching $52.5 billion as of February 16, 2022.

  Diamond is perhaps best known for bringing American-style huge CEO compensation to Europe, and for stepping down as Barclays chief after Britain levied a then-record $92.7 million fine for manipulating the LIBOR interest rate benchmark. Less-well-remembered is his role in the largest bankruptcy in history, Lehman Brothers, an episode I wrote about in The Divide. After Barclays acquired the shipwrecked firm for pennies in September of 2008, the bank’s creditors sued, claiming Barclays absconded with between $4 and $7.6 billion in funds owed to them through a variety of schemes. The creditors mostly lost that case, which was eventually settled for $1.28 billion. This is relevant because the question of whether or not USDC reserves are truly bankruptcy remote is central to this story. Asked about this, Circle replied, “We are delighted by the support and involvement of all of our shareholders.”

  Meanwhile, the players from the Circle side have their own history. Jeremy Allaire and at least one other future Circle officer were accused in 2002 of making misleadingly positive statements about a failing product called Spectra while selling “over $53,000,000.00” of stock in their company, Allaire Corporation, in the first three quarters of 2000. In August of 2000, Allaire was asked about an annual goal of 100% growth, and reportedly said, “We definitely think that is achievable.” A month later, the company announced a substantial third quarter loss, and its share price dropped 40% in three days, prompting the action.

  Massachusetts District Judge William Young used remarkably strong language to reject a motion to dismiss the suit, saying, “It is difficult to conceive of a complaint pled with more particularity than the one presented,” and “in many respects, if this complaint is not specific enough, no complaint is.” He added:

  Essentially, the Plaintiffs invested in a company which promised to build the best mousetrap ever. When it was done, the mousetrap was ugly, did not catch mice, and, as word got out, people stopped buying.

  The case was eventually settled for $12 million, without an admission of wrongdoing. In conversations with former regulators, some raised a question as to whether or not the Allaire Corporation case might prevent Circle officers from ever obtaining a banking license, given that charters are only given to persons of “good character and responsibility.” Opinions on the matter were very mixed. However, it was certainly not a non-issue.

  “Any case involving alleged fraud will be a matter of great concern to the banking regulators,” said former FDIC General Counsel Mike Krimminger. “If there were a settlement with no admission of guilt, there might be explanation that could be acceptable to regulators, but it will still be a real concern that could be fatal to an application.”

  In any case, when asked this week why that old story shouldn’t make investors in a different, newer mousetrap nervous, a Circle spokesperson replied:

  The case settled without any finding of wrongdoing… The defendants disputed the factual allegations, and as with the vast majority of securities class actions, the case settled. The factual allegations were never tested in court, and there is really nothing more to say about this 20 year old case.

  In 2008, when reporters and investigators began pulling at the threads of terms like “fully hedged” or “triple-A tranche,” they often found there was almost no way to stop pulling, even if they wanted to. In fact, by the time people stopped pulling, the entire global financial system was basically a pile of string. It may very well be that the same experience awaits anyone who pulls at threads like “100% backed” or “secure wallet” or other such catch-phrases from any one of dozens of crypto companies. In other words, these issues may not be unique to Circle. But make no mistake: this is the definition of an “opaque ledger.” If every crypto company will struggle this badly to answer basic questions like Where’s your money? or What’s your risk?, the storm hasn’t even started yet.

  * * *

  TK News by Matt Taibbi is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 19:30

• White House Says Tesla Supercharger Network To Allow Other EVs 
  White House Says Tesla Supercharger Network To Allow Other EVs 

  A memo from the White House states Tesla’s Supercharger network will open to non-Tesla electric vehicles.

  “Later this year, Tesla will begin production of new Supercharger equipment that will enable non-Tesla EV drivers in North America to use Tesla Superchargers,” according to the memo.

  In the U.S., there are over 1,400 Supercharger stations located in all 50 U.S. states and Puerto Rico. The memo did not mention how much Tesla will invest in adapting its fast-charging network to non-Tesla EVs, though it stated: 

  “Tesla is expanding production capacity of power electronics components that convert alternating current to direct current, charging cabinets, posts and cables.” 

  

  Tesla’s vehicles use a “proprietary connector,” meaning the charging cord isn’t compatible with non-Tesla EVs. It’s unclear how Tesla plans to open the Supercharger network to non-Tesla EVs, but Elon Musk previously spoke about offering adapters. 

  Besides charging adaptors, non-Tesla EVs will likely have to download Tesla’s smartphone app to access the Supercharger network and pay for a charge. 

  It was only until April when the Biden administration finally acted Tesla existed after Musk complained they were ignoring him. Senior White House officials spoke with Musk and other top automotive leaders about EVs and charging infrastructure.

  The $1 trillion infrastructure program signed into law by the Biden administration calls for $5 billion to be plowed into a new EV infrastructure over five years to build a national network of 500,000 electric vehicle chargers.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 19:00

• Chinese Communist Party Threat Is "Massive": FBI & MI5 Directors
  Chinese Communist Party Threat Is “Massive”: FBI & MI5 Directors

  Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Leaders from the British and American domestic intelligence agencies delivered a rare joint statement on July 6, warning that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is the greatest threat to the international order.

  “The most game-changing challenge we face comes from the Chinese Communist Party,” said MI5 Director General Ken McCallum.

  “It’s covertly applying pressure across the globe. This might feel abstract. But it’s real and it’s pressing. We need to talk about it. We need to act.”

  

  McCallum described the CCP’s aggression as a “massive shared challenge” between the UK and the United States. He said that the communist regime is organizing the whole of China’s state apparatus to systematically undermine the West and steal advanced technologies.

  

  “The CCP adopts a whole-of-state approach in which businesses and individuals are forced by law to cooperate with the Party,” McCallum said.

  “In our free societies, we can do better. By building trusted partnerships across our national systems and, as symbolized today, internationally.”

  CCP Is the ‘Biggest Long-Term Threat’

  FBI Director Christopher Wray said that the CCP is the greatest challenge to the international order, which seeks to undermine the United States, its allies, and partners.

  “We consistently see that it’s the Chinese government that poses the biggest long-term threat to our economic and national security, and by ‘our,’ I mean both of our nations, along with our allies in Europe and elsewhere,” he said.

  McCallum said the purpose of the statement was not to demonize the Chinese people nor cut off China’s businesses from the rest of the world, but designed to specifically address the many threats posed by the CCP. These included covert theft, forced technology transfers, research exploitation, and cyberattacks that targeted virtually every sector of society, he added.

  “The scale of ambition is huge,” McCallum said. “And it’s not really a secret. Any number of public strategic plans, such as Made in China 2025, show the intent plainly.”

  “[They are] Seeking to bend our economy, our society, our attitudes to suit the Chinese Communist Party’s interests. To set standards and norms that would enable it to dominate the international order. This should make us sit up and notice.”

  The UK government, like others throughout the world, has been the target of high-profile espionage campaigns by the CCP. Earlier this year, MI5 issued a warning that a Chinese spy had cultivated extensive ties throughout parliament, including through fundraising. Likewise, the UK also expelled several Chinese spies who posed as journalists.

  The incidents served to underscore what McCallum presented as a harsh truth: that the West’s economic liberalism had failed to result in greater freedom and transparency in China.

  “The widespread Western assumption that growing prosperity within China and increasing connectivity with the West would automatically lead to greater political freedom has, I’m afraid, been shown to be plain wrong,” McCallum said.

  “But the Chinese Communist Party is interested in our democratic, media, and legal systems. Not to emulate them, sadly, but to use them for its gain.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 18:30

• Twitter Just Lost Its Last Chance To Remain Relevant
  Twitter Just Lost Its Last Chance To Remain Relevant

  After months of drama, it would appear the fate of social media giant Twitter has been decided, and the result is an inevitable path to the internet graveyard.

  Many people will question the notion that Twitter could ever actually bite the dust, but they are probably unfamiliar with the company’s dismal performance as of late.  The reality is, Elon Musk’s potential buyout was their last chance to stay afloat; now that Musk has exited the deal, they face a continued and steady decline into irrelevance like many other Big Tech companies before them.  

  While it’s possible that Musk’s decision is merely a play for a reduced sale price, it’s probably safe to assume there is not going to be a purchase anytime soon.  This sets a chain of events in motion that bode very poor for Twitter given their track record the past couple of years, but first let’s consider the current situation.

  

  While the initial argument from Twitter execs will be that Musk “waived” his rights to change the original deal and thus he is required to buy regardless, his waiver does not extend to his rights to review Twitter’s claims about their user base.  The deal itself was predicated on Twitter giving honest assessments of the percentage of users that are actually bots (fake accounts).  Twitter initially claimed that bots only made up around 5% of users; it would appear that Musk has discovered this to be false, and this is the position his lawyers have asserted through the SEC.

  If it turns out that a large portion of Twitter is actually fake, then Musk surely has grounds to terminate the deal.  A waiver against changing the deal does not negate the original requirements of the deal according to his legal council, and this makes perfect sense.  

  But why is Twitter so desperate to force Musk to buy when they were so resistant before, to the point that they were willing to use a “poison pill” maneuver to dilute his shares and prevent him from gaining a majority of holdings?  Why are they so insistent when most of the company was up in arms only a month ago, frothing and raging over the chance that free speech might become policy on the platform?  We have to look at the company’s financial health before Musk’s purchase announcement as well as what is likely to happen now that he has dumped it.  

  In truth, Musk could have saved the company from a slow but accelerating implosion.  Twitter’s stock has been a relatively poor performer for a few years.  In 2020 at the onset of the covid pandemic, it saw a massive jump along with most other Big Tech companies on the assumption that user rates would increase along with the covid lockdowns.  This did not really happen.

  In Fall of 2021 their stock value began to falter, with the price plunging by more that 50% just before Elon Musk announced his majority share interest.  

  In April, Twitter admitted that the company “might” have been overcounting its users.  People with multiple accounts had those accounts linked together, but Twitter was still counting them as separate users.  They indicated that up to 2 million users were created through secondary accounts (which means there are probably many millions more that they have not found or admitted to).  On top of this and the bot issues, Twitter user base was in decline anyway.

  In 2019, Twitter abandoned its original method of counting users and moved to a new metric which “discounted the loss of bot accounts.”  This spurs the question that is now at the core of Musk abandoning the sale:  How many users on Twitter are actually fake?

  In February, despite the change in its metrics, Twitter announced its user numbers had still fallen short.  On top of this, the company suffered a net income loss of $1.4 billion in 2020 and a loss of $221 million in 2021.  After stock declines, the only thing left for Twitter was user growth, and they didn’t have it.  

  Musk’s possible purchase of the company lifted share prices at a time when the platform was nearing the edge of the Big Tech abyss – The moment when a website goes the way of Myspace.  With their reputation in the gutter after consistent censorship of conservatives and alternative media sources, the alienation of their user base was becoming a real problem.  The platform was now known as nothing more than a “blue checkmark” cult hangout for the extreme political left; in other words, not an inviting place for anyone without pronouns in their bio.  Musk moving in revitalized public interest in the company, if only for a short time.  

  Despite their rabid distaste for free speech, Twitter needed Musk.  In order to meet Musk’s demands for user data, they dumped their entire server in his lap, maybe to bury him in so much information that sifting through it would take too long to discover anything out of order.  The mainstream media actually crowed about the tactic, applauding Twitter’s action as a way to stick it to Musk.

  However, they did not seem to consider the implications of ALL of Twitter’s data now in the hands of outside interests.  If there is fraud at Twitter against its shareholders, then it will eventually be known.  Maybe this is all that Musk wanted in the first place.  

  What happens next in terms of the deal is unclear.  No doubt court proceedings will go on for years, but Twitter likely doesn’t have that much time.  Musk dropping out of the sale will result in an immediate drop in stock price and perhaps even a violent devaluation.  The question among shareholders will be this:  “What did Musk discover in his analysis of Twitter user accounts?  Did he find an immense number of bots?”

  People will err on the side of caution and sell their shares while they can.  

  It’s a lose/lose situation for Twitter, because as they push the issue in court there will be discovery.  In discovery all the data will be laid bare, and if Twitter is actually a hollow company with huge fake user numbers then the public is going to hear about it.  Their share prices will collapse even further, there will be an SEC investigation and many lawsuits.  Even if large corporate interests like Blackrock or Vanguard stepped in to shore up stock prices, none of these companies have the social influence to encourage wider buying from individual investors.  They would have to take increasing losses to save a company that cannot be saved.     

  The result could be the expedited death of the platform.

  Whether or not you like Elon Musk is not important.  What’s important is the exposure of one of the biggest social media conglomerates in the world to incredible scrutiny.  Twitter’s web influence has been waning for some time, but they still hold a measure of power over the flow of information within our culture.  Perhaps a reckoning is at hand, and maybe the public will get a peek behind the curtain of the Big Tech empire to see how things REALLY operate.  

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 18:00

• There's Still Over $40BN In Cargo On Container Ships Waiting Offshore
  There’s Still Over $40BN In Cargo On Container Ships Waiting Offshore

  By Greg Miller of FreightWaves

  Anchorages continue to fill with waiting container ships off East and Gulf Coast ports, where vessel queues have now far outgrown those off the West Coast. Along all three coasts combined, the number of waiting container vessels remains exceptionally high.

  

  There were 125 container ships waiting off North American ports on Friday morning, according to an analysis of ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic and queue numbers from California.

  

  That’s down 16% from 150 waiting ships in January, when West Coast congestion peaked, but up 36% from 92 ships a month ago.

  The ship queue off Los Angeles/Long Beach garnered the most headlines over the past year, yet the congestion epicenter has shifted: As of Friday, only 36% of waiting ships were off West Coast ports, with 64% off the East and Gulf Coast ports. Savannah, Georgia, now has the largest ship queue in North America.

  Container ships waiting off U.S. and British Columbia ports on Friday had a combined capacity of 1,037,164 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).

  How much cargo value is in all those boxes? On a purely back-of-the-envelope basis, assuming 90% utilization (some estimates are higher) and an average cargo value per import TEU of $43,899 (the average value of cargo imported by Los Angeles in 2020, likely conservative given inflation), the estimated value of cargo waiting offshore on Friday exceeded $40 billion.

  Volumes shift to the east

  Project44 tracks monthly arriving TEU capacity to West Coast versus East Coast ports. It found that June capacity heading to the East Coast was up 83% year on year and up 177% compared to June 2020. East Coast-bound capacity is now on par with West Coast-bound capacity, which has dropped almost 40% since its January peak. Project44 attributed the shift to importer fears of West Coast port labor disruptions.

  

  East/Gulf Coast queues

  As of Friday morning, MarineTraffic data showed 36 container vessels offshore of Tybee Island, Georgia, awaiting berths in Savannah. The ships had a total capacity of 343,085 TEUs (average ship size: 9,350 TEUs).

  A proprietary FreightWaves SONAR index of bookings data shows that growth in inbound volumes to Savannah versus the index date (January 2019) is significantly higher than the national average.

  

  Waiting time for a berth in Savannah is now 10-12 days, according to an operational update this week by Hapag-Lloyd. The carrier put yard utilization in Savannah at 89%.

  The second-largest East Coast queue is off New York/New Jersey. On Friday morning, there were 20 vessels waiting with an aggregate capacity of 180,908 TEUs (average size: 9,045 TEUs).

  Hapag-Lloyd said waiting time for berths in New York/New Jersey was “running upwards of 20 days depending on the terminal.” Yard utilization was 92% at Maher, 75% at GCT Bayonne and 72% at APM Terminals, added Hapag-Lloyd.

  On the Gulf Coast, 20 ships were waiting off Houston with aggregate capacity of 121,196 TEUs (average size: 6,060 TEUs). According to Hapag-Lloyd, utilization at Houston’s Barbours Cut terminal was at 86%, and “terminals continue to experience equipment shortages for chassis due to longer street dwells.”

  

  Elsewhere on the East and Gulf coasts, two ships were waiting off Virginia, and another two off New Orleans.

  West Coast queues

  According to the Friday 7 a.m. queuing list from the Marine Exchange of Southern California, 24 container ships were waiting for berths in Los Angeles/Long Beach, with a total capacity of 208,903 TEUs (average size: 8,704 TEUs).

  This backlog is down sharply from a high of 109 ships on Jan. 9, but it’s still the second-largest ship queue in North America. The Los Angeles/Long Beach ship count has been hovering around its current level since late May, and is still up slightly year on year.

  

  Elsewhere on the West Coast, 10 ships were waiting for berths in Oakland, according to Friday 7 a.m. queueing list from the Marine Exchange of the San Francisco Bay Region. These ships had total capacity of 79,712 TEUs (average size: 7,971 TEUs).

  Finally, an additional eight vessels were awaiting berths in Vancouver, British Columbia, with a further three off Seattle/Tacoma.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 17:30

• "Facts Should Still Matter": Peter Schiff Defends His Puerto Rican Bank After Regulators Shut It Down
  “Facts Should Still Matter”: Peter Schiff Defends His Puerto Rican Bank After Regulators Shut It Down

  We noted on Friday that Peter Schiff was fighting desperately to try and sell his Puerto-Rico based bank, Euro Pacific Bank International, after it was shut down by regulators. 

  Later in the day, Schiff released a statement, vowing to work with regulators and also urging media outlets who may have covered the news by insinuating that his bank was found of wrongdoing to correct the record. 

  “In its order made public last week, OCIF, alleged that the Bank had violated capital requirements and had failed to satisfy other regulatory obligations. In the best interest of depositors and bank employees, I intend to cooperate expeditiously and transparently with the OCIF Commissioner to bring the bank fully into compliance and to meet all the financial and regulatory obligations that we may have overlooked,” Schiff wrote on Friday.

  “We commit to working with OCIF to institute controls and rigorous due diligence going forward to avoid these errors in the future.”

  

  He also took aim at media outlets, many of whom he blamed for the bank’s troubles to begin with:

  However, in recent days many press outlets have falsely reported that the Euro Pacific Bank International (EUBI), of which I am sole shareholder and Director, has been found by OCIF to have intentionally, or negligently, accepted deposits from money launderers or tax evaders, and that their cease and desist order was related to those crimes. Prior press reports have similarly relied on innuendo to suggest such criminal wrongdoing. These news reports are in direct contradiction to the OCIF Commissioner’s public statements that her actions had nothing to do with tax evasion or money laundering.

  Schiff wrote: “We ask all reporters and media organizations who have misreported that such wrongdoing has been charged to retract and correct such misreporting immediately — and to do so conspicuously, informing readers of the errors and the corrections.”

  “Facts should still matter, innuendo is no substitute,” he said. 

  Recall Schiff has said several times over that he has a buyer for Euro Pacific International Bank Inc., but that a provisional cease-and-desist order from regulators stands in his way to selling the bank

  Back in November, the bank had submitted a plan for Emergent Technology & Payments to acquire all of the bank’s shares. The Puerto Rico Office of the Commissioner of Financial Institutions, or OCIF weighed the financials of Austrian payment processor Qenta Payment CEE, which Emergent also purchased earlier in the year. 

  Emergent agreed to buy the bank despite a widely publicized global tax-evasion investigation that has been taking place since 2020. Emergent would have put in $7 million to help recapitalize the bank. Schiff maintains that the investigation turned up nothing. 

  Schiff had initially thought the sale would consummate, telling Bloomberg: “All of a sudden they decide, ‘Nope, this deal is gone. We’re going to take this bank and put it into a receivership and expose it to millions of dollars of losses unnecessarily.’ And, at the end of the day, the depositors may end up, you know, losing some money right now.”

  OCIF says it has been warning the bank since 2021 that it was in  “crass noncompliance with the minimum capital requirements.”

  “The investigation found nothing. The bank didn’t help people launder money or evade taxes. So why is it getting shut down?” Schiff concluded. 

  Schiff says he has put $10 million of his personal funds into Euro Pacific since its inception in 2017. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 17:00

• China Rebuts Weaponization Of Space Program Claim By NASA Administrator
  China Rebuts Weaponization Of Space Program Claim By NASA Administrator

  Authored by Mary Hong via The Epoch Times,

  NASA Administrator Bill Nelson has warned that China is using its space program to attempt to take over the moon, a claim the Chinese regime denies.

  

  Nelson told German outlet Bild on July 2, “We must be very concerned that China is landing on the moon and saying: It’s ours now and you stay out.”

  The purpose of China’s space program, Nelson said, “is a military space program,” and its accomplishments are built on technology theft.

  The Chinese regime has denied Nelson’s allegations.

  “This is not the first time that the NASA administrator has lashed out at China in disregard of facts,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian.

  “China always advocates the peaceful use of outer space, opposes the weaponization of and arms race in outer space,” he added.

  However, experts told the Chinese language edition of The Epoch Times that the theft of space technology is common by the Chinese Communist Party, and that the space program itself is part of the Strategic Support Force of the military.

  Technology Plagiarism

  Nelson warned about the space race with China in a Congress hearing on May 17. In particular, he warned about China’s aggression in outer space and the cyber security risks posed by technology theft. He said, “They are pretty good at stealing.”

  Yue Changzhi is an electronics engineer retired from the No. 2 Institute of the Ministry of Aerospace Industry of China.

  She told The Epoch Times that she has no doubt that Beijing advanced its aerospace technology by relying on stealing.

  She said that the thefts started in the 1960s when she was hired at the ministry. Her task was in the development of missiles and anti-missile systems in the electronic department.

  “It was the early time when the Ministry of Aerospace Industry was just established. Plagiarism has been its approach, that is, to make a copy of things invented by others with a slight change in appearance,” Yue said.

  

  The Yutu-2 moon rover, taken by the Chang’e-4 lunar probe on the far side of the moon. Picture released on Jan. 11, 2019. (China National Space Administration [CNSA] via CNS/AFP/China OUT)

  Military Ambition

  Nelson issued a statement on May 19, 2021 after China released the first photos from the Zhurong Mars rover.

  “Congratulations to the China National Space Administration on receiving the first images from the Zhurong Mars rover!” Nelson said.

  However, in this year’s Congress hearing Nelson warned that it is “incumbent upon us to take cyber security very very seriously … with regard to the government but the private sector as well.”

  When asked what military purposes China could pursue in space, Nelson bluntly answered: “Well, what do you think is happening on the Chinese space station? They learn there how to destroy other people’s satellites,” reported Bild.

  Commentator Wang He pointed out that the Chinese aerospace program was built in affiliation with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

  He explained that satellite launch centers such as Jiuquan and Taiyuan are both under the control of the military. Both centers are located at the testing and training base of the PLA’s Strategic Support Force.

  He further emphasized that in recent years, the regime manipulated its claim “to utilize outer space for peaceful purposes, promote mankind’s civilization and social progress,” as a cover for seeking international collaboration for the purpose of stealing technologies.

  He said, “The so-called Chinese private companies involved in the international collaboration are still under the control of the Communist Party.”

  In other words, they are “the front companies,” He stated.

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 16:30

• Are We There Yet? What Do Payrolls Tell Us About The Timing Of The Next Recession
  Are We There Yet? What Do Payrolls Tell Us About The Timing Of The Next Recession

  Yesterday we explained why contrary to the widespread praise for the Friday payrolls report, a closer look at the data below the surface revealed a far weaker labor market than the one trumpeted by the Biden administration, not least of all because while the Establishment Survey hinted a continued strong jobs growth (with +372K payrolls in June, over a 100K more than the 268K median estimate), the Household Survey contrasted with a far weaker picture, indicating 315K jobs lost, and zero actual growth in employment since March…

  

  … a bizarre differential of nearly 1.5 million jobs between the two surveys since March…

  

  … and one which is increasingly manifesting itself in loss of full and part-time jobs at the expense of multiple jobholders (see “Something Snaps In The US Labor Market: Full, Part-Time Workers Plunge As Multiple Jobholders Soar” for details.)

  Still, while one can debate the nuances in the data, pro-admin economists and permabulls will argue that whether the 372K print is up or down by a few hundred thousand, is irrelevant: after all, there is no way the US economy can slide into a recession with such (still) solid labor market gains, right? And the latest jobs report certainly does not change anything for the Fed: after all, there is neither enough job weakness nor wage deceleration for Powell to shift course.

  In other words, we can’t have a recession with unemployment so low and payrolls so strong.

  But is that true? Well, as Piper Sandler’s Nancy Lazar counters, neither is a leading indicator – they’re at best coincident – and unemployment always bottoms out just before recessions (especially since the continued slowdown in wage growth indicates the return of lower-paid jobs, and raises the odds we do not have a wage-price spiral but instead see price-slowdown).

  Overnight, DB’s Jim Reid also chimed in, echoing our caution and writing that “we have to be careful of today’s big +372k payroll print as the figure can seem a bit of a random number generator” yet even so, he notes that through history a recession usually has a negative print in the first month of it being declared, which then carries on for the vast majority of the subsequent year.

  While this clearly hasn’t happened yet, there are two key caveats: as Reid explains, the problem for forecasters and markets is that

  1. the recession is declared retrospectively, so it’s usually too late to wait for official confirmation, and by the time the negative prints arrive it will be time to start forecasting the end of the recession, and…
  2. history suggests little evidence of a gradual decline in payrolls in the months leading up to recession.

  Indeed, it may come as a shock to macrotourists who claim we need to see a gradual decline into the red for a recession to emerge, but as Reid’s chart of the day shows, the median payroll 10 months before a recession is the same as the final month before a recession with little sign of a trend in the months between!

  

  In other words, confirming what Piper Sanlder said above, payrolls in themselves give no advance warning, and if anything give false positives because while they remain in the green, the economy has already contracted.

  Still, as Reid concludes, it is striking how strong job growth has been in recent months as we recover from the pandemic. This will likely be under more pressure soon as the lagged effect of inflation and the Fed hiking cycle kick in, but for now it remains historically very strong.

  As such, the timing of the eventual recession (outside of the technical definition) will be closely tied to when payrolls go negative and appear likely to stay there. And while we are not there yet, the DB strategist warns that “it looks inevitable that we will be, over the next 12 months.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 16:00

• Bon Voyager: The Biggest Crypto News From The First Week Of July
  Bon Voyager: The Biggest Crypto News From The First Week Of July

  By Donovan Choy of Bankless

  Voyager Digital Goes Bankrupt

  “The company is well capitalized and in a good position to weather this market cycle and protect customer assets.” — Voyager Digital press release, June 14th 2022.

  That did not age well. CeFi firm Voyager Digital filed for bankruptcy this week.

  The publicly traded crypto bank got caught up making huge uncollateralized loans of $660M to “too-big-to-fail” crypto hedge fund 3AC, which was in turn making its own leveraged risky trades all over the place.

  Voyager customers were in effect lending to 3AC in a game of musical chairs, and the music came to a screeching default halt to the tune of 15250 BTC and 350M USDC.

  Now, Voyager has a remaining $110M in assets on hand, plus $1.3B in assets.

  The bankruptcy filing means that Voyager customers will likely not receive their assets back in full.

  Here’s the company’s rough plan to make customers “whole”:

  Voyager customers will receive a combination of some cryptoassets, a share of Voyager’s $660M claim against 3AC (now also bankrupt btw), a bunch of VGX “loyalty” tokens for “boosting rewards” on crypto deposits, and VOYG shares — upon which trading has been halted on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

  Something tells me Voyager users won’t be overly keen on receiving shares of a sunken ship.

  Here’s how the rest of the pieces in the 3AC pandemic contagion puzzle lay:

  • 3AC has filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy in a New York court in a bid to protects its remaining assets from a legal grab
  • Nexo is making moves to acquire the Coinbase-backed Vauld, another struggling crypto lender that halted withdrawals last week 
  • Facing $80M in losses from its 3AC loan, FTX acquires BlockFi this week for $240M. Its valuation at its peak was ~$4B+. (oof)
  • Genesis Trading is facing hundreds of millions of dollars in losses from its exposure to 3AC.
  • Finally, Celsius has completely paid down its WBTC loan on its Maker vault and gotten all its collateral ($440M) back.

  The only lenders Celsius has paid back: @AaveAave @MakerDAO @compoundfinance

  Smart contracts have a higher liquidation preference than any paper agreement

  DeFi protects you from Celsius https://t.co/lA68IAI4Bp

  — Leighton (@lay2000lbs) July 7, 2022

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  * * *

  Aave proposes GHO stablecoin

  Aave’s latest governance proposal is taking DeFi by storm. The DeFi giant is proposing GHO, an overcollateralized USD-pegged stablecoin that lenders can mint against supplied collateral — similar to Maker’s DAI.

  Why GHO? The business strategy is to capture stablecoin market share through “organic adoption via L2s.” Aave V3 is currently deployed across six chains, including Polygon and Ethereum L2s Arbitrum and Optimism. GHO will also serve as a revenue generator for Aave, as 100% of interest paid on GHO loans by borrowers will be sent to the DAO.

  Obviously, this is huge. Aave is the second largest DeFi protocol by TVL after Maker. An Aave stablecoin would place both protocols in direct competition. For every one GHO in Aave means one less DAI in Aave.

  Aave’s massive lending market across multiple chains gives its stablecoin a big advantage in getting off the ground, thanks to its many existing stakeholders and deep liquidity. Aave is tapping well on both of these strengths.

  For example: GHO is designed to be highly incentive-compatible with existing AAVE token holders. Aave Safety Module stakers (stkAAVE) can mint GHO at a discounted rate, and sell them on other DeFi protocols for arbitrage profits, driving utility to the AAVE token. This means AAVE holders have a significant interest in seeing GHO passed.

  Anxious rumblings are already rumbling on the Maker forums. Aave leaders are doing their best to soothe concerns.

  

  Voting hasn’t begun yet, but keep your eyes peeled for this one. Here are some other salient details:

  • GHO is designed to have a fixed stable borrowing interest rate which “the DAO will be able to decide… and change over time through a governance process,” similar to how MKR holders decide on the mechanics (stability fee, debt ceiling, DAI savings rate) that govern DAI.
  • Only intermediaries known as “facilitators” can mint and burn GHO. Who these facilitators will be, their minting limits, and types of collateral they can accept against minting (see chart) will be decided by the DAO.
  • E-Mode is a stabilizing factor that ensures users access GHO with a 1:1 rate
  • Portal will let users transfer GHO by simple message passing, thereby bypassing bridging risks.

  * * *

  Facebook and Reddit NFTs

  We’re launching NFTs on Facebook! Excited to share what I’ve been working on with the world. pic.twitter.com/TaV66zRanV

  — Navdeep Singh (@navdeep_ua) June 29, 2022

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  Facebook announced this week that it was testing support for Ethereum and Polygon NFTs on its platform, with Solana and Flow to come. This comes about two months after its sister company Instagram did the same.

  Reddit also announced the launch of its own limited edition collection of “Collectible Avatars” that users can display on their profile pictures, designed by artists that were carefully curated by Reddit. These aren’t quite NFTs in the traditional sense. Reddit lets you play dress-up with the way they look, but they are stored on the Polygon chain.

  GM @0xPolygon Fam!@Reddit is launching its NFT Marketplace on @0xPolygon!

  Goal : #Top3 by impact – BTC,ETH, Polygon; nothing less, nothing more.

  Never stop building! WAGMI!https://t.co/VhSMEl2wJd

  — Sandeep | Polygon 💜🔝3️⃣ (@sandeepnailwal) July 7, 2022

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  * * *

  Crypto smartphones are here (again)

  Layer-1 blockchains are coming for a slice of the smartphone market.

  Solana announced last week Saga, an AndroidOS phone that comes with tools to securely store and trade digital assets. You can track even tracks its sales on-chain and it seems to have stagnated at 2.6K preorders for the $1000 device.

  ⚡️⚡️.@solana launch #web3-focused smartphone Saga to improve crypto-mobile relationship

  “This is something that I fundamentally believe the industry needs to do,” Yakovenko said. “We didn’t see a single crypto feature at the Apple developer conference 13 years.#p2esecrethub pic.twitter.com/UxTKoNY1JL

  — P2E Secret Hub (@P2E_SecretHub) July 4, 2022

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  While the demand for a crypto smartphone may not be overwhelming, Solana has played the move as the opening bell of a long arc of Web3 integration into mobile phone software and hardware.

  Polygon is also launching its own “metaverse phone.” Unlike Solana though, this is in partnership with the Taiwanese tech juggernaut HTC. 

  Mass adoption of Web3 will happen on mobile and @0xPolygon is preparing for it.

  Our strategy is not to make our own devices. Instead, we will integrate with existing manufacturers.

  Today, we are proud to announce the first major integration.

  Onwards. 🔥https://t.co/sGCfTm6v7P

  — Mihailo Bjelic (@MihailoBjelic) July 4, 2022

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  These are not the first forays crypto has made into the smartphone sector. Most notably, Sirin Labs launched the Finney smartphone all the way back in 2019, but sales were low and the project ebbed thereafter. Let’s hope this generation of crypto smartphones fares better.

  * * *

  Web3 News Roundup

  Aztec Connect launch

  Aztec Connect is the “VPN for Ethereum,” according to creators Aztec. It’s a private roll-up that lets you execute DeFi transactions on Ethereum dapps with complete privacy. It drops this week and major protocols like Curve and Lido are already deployed.

  Today we launched Aztec Connect, the VPN for Ethereum.

  I just used it to get some $stETH on mainnet Curve for $1.50 in fees, with complete privacy.

  Fully private DeFi, with huge cost savings.

  Why I think our private rollup is ridiculously bullish for Ethereum: pic.twitter.com/v75YXt0glU

  — jonwu.(🗽, 🍎) (@jonwu_) July 7, 2022

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  * * *

  EU crypto regulation

  This week saw the EU finalize MiCA (Markets-in-Crypto-Assets), a base legal framework to regulating crypto.

  The good news: They’re leaving PoW mining alone, NFTs and DeFi are (mostly) out of the scope of MiCA.

  The bad: Stablecoins get hit hard:

  … MiCA will protect consumers by requesting stablecoins issuers to build up a sufficiently liquid reserve, with a 1/1 ratio and partly in the form of deposits. Every so-called “stablecoin” holder will be offered a claim at any time and free of charge by the issuer, and the rules governing the operation of the reserve will also provide for an adequate minimum liquidity…

  The development of asset-referenced tokens (ARTs) based on a non-European currency, as a widely used means of payment, will be constrained to preserve our monetary sovereignty. Issuers of ARTs will need to have a registered office in the EU to ensure the proper supervision and monitoring of offers to the public of asset-referenced tokens.

  * * *

  Sepolia merge

  The Ethereum Sepolia test network merged successfully. Two down (Ropsten, Sepolia), one to go (Goerli).

  BREAKING – Ethereum completes another successful test of The Merge on Sepolia 🐼

  Goerli next.

  Mainnet after.

  Don’t sleep. pic.twitter.com/YeQfghmm5O

  — bankless.eth (@BanklessHQ) July 6, 2022

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  * * *

  Immutable X update

  If you have ETH on an L2 that you’d like to spend in the real world, you’d babe to offramp it by sending ETH from L2 to a centralized exchange, requesting a withdrawal, and waiting few days before you could spend it.

  Immutable X is streamlining this process in one step — with no gas fees!

  Caveat: It’s only for ETH for now, and for the UK, EU and select US states.

  1/ Major update! $ETH offramp is now available to any developer building an @Immutable X powered platform

  Developers can enable their users to sell L2 $ETH and have the proceeds deposited directly to their bank accounts. https://t.co/DmiyWV8wYy

  Continue below👇 pic.twitter.com/Uhm214oy2E

  — Immutable | $IMX ⓧ (@Immutable) July 5, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 15:30

• Goldman: 'Defensive Rotation' From Stocks To Bonds Will Make Gold Shine Again
  Goldman: ‘Defensive Rotation’ From Stocks To Bonds Will Make Gold Shine Again

  A week ago, we laid out why Goldman Sachs’ had increased its target price for gold to $2500, suggesting pressure on the precious metal would ease as China’s “negative wealth effect” eased.

  Since then prices for precious metals have tumbled…

  

  So what will be the catalysts for gold to shine again?

  In his latest note, Goldman’s Mikhail Sprogis explains that for gold investment demand to build momentum there needs to be a defensive rotation out of equities into bonds.

  Sprogis view gold prices through a ‘Fear and Wealth’ framework, where ‘Fear’ drives investment demand in DMs and ‘Wealth’ drives consumer demand in major EM gold consumers.

  US recession risk and central bank (CB) policy tend to be the best proxies for Fear, while the dollar GDP of gold consumers is the best way to track the Wealth effect.

  Thus, so far this year gold investment demand remains split between hawkish CBs who are committed to bringing inflation down, a negative force for gold prices, and high recession worries, a positive force.

  The future direction of gold investment demand will be determined by the interplay of Fed hawkishness and recession fears, in Goldman’s view.

  • If recession fears persist while the pace of Fed hikes slows down due to a normalization of inflation, then gold investment demand should finally manage to build a bullish momentum. We observed a similar dynamic at the start of the year, when growth and inflation worries emerged but it was unclear how hawkish the CBs’ response would be.

  • If, however, recession fears were to moderate due to a resilience of US growth while sticky inflation forces the Fed to continue to hike, then we are likely to see a material rotation out of gold ETFs.

  This dual nature of gold investment demand can be seen in the relationship between gold ETF flows and flows into bonds and equity funds.

  

  Flows into gold ETFs tend to be positively linked to inflows into safe bond funds and negatively correlated to flows into risky equity funds.

  

  Goldman concludes:

  All in all, we believe that the moderation of inflation rates can shift the market focus from continued tightening and towards recession risk.

  This should be positive for gold, in our view, as it would relieve pressure from the continued rising dollar and rates but keep the support from high recession fears.

  We therefore expect gold to begin to perform as the market sees more credible indications that the Fed hiking pace is moderating and there is a rotation out of equities into bonds.

  As a reminder, Baupost’s Seth Klarman said in his latest note to investors that:

  “I’m a fan of gold. I think gold’s valuable in a crisis.”

  “The market has come to believe in an omniscient Federal Reserve, and it’s no such thing. These guys don’t really know what they’re doing in any deep way. It’s a giant financial experiment, and we’re at the mercy of their experiment that maybe is right now in the process of going wrong, so God help us.”

  It seems The Fed’s omniscience is about to be tested…

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 15:00

• Sri Lanka President To Quit After Palace Stormed By Angry Protesters
  Sri Lanka President To Quit After Palace Stormed By Angry Protesters

  Update (1455ET): Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa announced he would step down late Saturday night after thousands of protesters rushed his official residence and offices earlier in the day. 

  Rajapaksa has taken refuge in an undisclosed location, some have pointed out, possibly on a naval ship. 

  Parliament Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena told the nation in a televised announcement late Saturday that Rajapaksa will resign Wednesday “to ensure a peaceful transition.” 

  Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe tweeted he will resign as well:

  “To ensure the continuation of the Government including the safety of all citizens I accept the best recommendation of the Party Leaders today, to make way for an All-Party Government … To facilitate this I will resign as Prime Minister.”

  To ensure the continuation of the Government including the safety of all citizens I accept the best recommendation of the Party Leaders today, to make way for an All-Party Government.

  To facilitate this I will resign as Prime Minister.

  — Ranil Wickremesinghe (@RW_UNP) July 9, 2022

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  The Sri Lankan constitution says if Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe both resign, the parliament speaker will assume power for one month. 

  Footage circulating on social media show tens of thousands of demonstrators swarming the presidential palace. 

  

  Social unrest comes as the country has suffered runaway inflation and shortages of food and fuel after depleting foreign exchange reserves. 

  * * * 

  Thousands of protesters stormed Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s official residence as part of an anti-government demonstration calling for his resignation following the country’s economic collapse.

  Demonstrators marched to Sri Lanka’s commercial capital of Colombo early Saturday. They jumped security fences surrounding the residence and overran the president’s security forces. Rajapaksa was evacuated from the palace around 1000 local time, his secretary Gamini Senarath told Bloomberg.

  “The president was escorted to safety,” a senior defense source told AFP. “He is still the president, he is being protected by a military unit.”

  Alleged footage of the president fleeing on a naval ship. 

  🇱🇰 BREAKING NEWS🇱🇰

  Footage emerges said to be of President Rajapakse fleeing Sri Lanka aboard a Navy Vessel. pic.twitter.com/yvaYv5uGvB

  — UNN (@UnityNewsNet) July 9, 2022

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  Footage uploaded to social media platforms from the president’s residence shows thousands of protesters surrounding the palace and then charging inside. 

  Colombo, Sri Lanka right now. The Presidential Palace has been stormed, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is said to have fled. Unbelievable scenes. Live reports on @IndiaToday: https://t.co/p6JV6FzCub pic.twitter.com/8zlJdBfN2P

  — Shiv Aroor (@ShivAroor) July 9, 2022

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  BREAKING: Sri Lanka protestors have stormed the presidential palace pic.twitter.com/wMLTBymtot

  — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) July 9, 2022

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  Protesters enjoying Sri Lanka’s absconding President’s swimming pool! No dictator should remain in illusion that the power is for ever, and when the end comes, it is always violent and nasty. pic.twitter.com/T3ePbkA0gM

  — Ashok Swain (@ashoswai) July 9, 2022

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  🚨Breaking: Sri Lanka President Gotabaya Rajapaksa flees after he declared the nation as total bankrupt. The moment after that the citizens surrounded the presidential palace and waived black flag along with Sri Lankan🇱🇰. There are no news yet on the whereabouts of President. pic.twitter.com/PGyev8lFxs

  — Real Mac Report (@RealMacReport) July 9, 2022

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  Protestors inside President’s House #SriLanka #SriLankaProtests pic.twitter.com/c1waEZ5zMM

  — Jamila Husain (@Jamz5251) July 9, 2022

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  Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe held emergency talks with party leaders before the parliament speaker during the unrest to decide what was next in resolving the worsening socio-economic crisis in the country of 22 million people. 

  Lawmakers asked Rajapaksa to relinquish his power to allow a new leader with a parliament majority to regain control and find a swift resolution to high inflation and shortages that have angered people for months. 

  The debt-laden economy of the tiny South Asian nation has “completely collapsed” as it lacks foreign exchange reserves to import essential items such as food and fuel. Shortages have materialized as the government began rationing goods last month. 

  Even though the government has held talks with the IMF, India, China, and Japan for new credit lines and even spoke with Russia about purchasing heavily discounted crude, the country entered a terminal phase where social unrest is spiraling out of control. 

  Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop details several reasons for this crisis and the economic turmoil has sparked unrest over the last several months. This visual breaks down some of the elements that led to Sri Lanka’s current situation.

  

  The Sri Lankan crisis carries the potential for an Arab Spring-style eruption across other countries that could quickly morph into an “Everywhere Spring” as people worldwide are angered by high inflation and shortage of food and fuel. This eruption in unrest could eclipse the revolution seen in 2011 that spread across the Arabic-speaking world due to high food prices.

  Everyone’s favorite permabear, SocGen’s Albert Edwards, first warned about the consequences of central banks injecting record amounts of money into the global economy in late 2020 and how it could spark soaring food prices, similar to 2011, where social unrest and revolutions were seen in many Arab countries. 

  

  Edwards’ prediction appears to be playing out. It could be much worse than a decade ago as much of the world experiences economic hardships and what some believe could be the emergence of stagflation.  

  Could the fall of Sri Lanka signal that weak, heavily indebted countries worldwide are about to fall like dominos? 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 14:55

• Unpacking Three New Washington Energy Policy Missteps
  Unpacking Three New Washington Energy Policy Missteps

  Authored by Kevin O’Scannlain via RealClear Energy,

  If the last two years have taught us anything, it is the importance of planning ahead and encouraging new investments in energy – whether it’s oil and natural gas, solar and wind, or a mixture of all of the above. With global populations expected to rise from nearly 8 billion today to almost 10 billion in 2050, energy demands are only projected to grow and policymakers ought to be ready to utilize American abundance.

  

  Further complicating the real-world picture: Putin’s unjust war that has led to Russian oil and natural gas supplies going offline; global supply chain and labor challenges lingering from Covid-19; and chronic underinvestment in energy infrastructure many say is encouraged by hostile Biden administration policies.

  Government trackers recorded gasoline prices heading down ahead of the holiday weekend, but they still remain high. In this low-supply/high-cost environment, it is dispiriting to see Washington policymakers – from federal agencies to Congress to the White House – ask for increased energy production while making moves to undermine our industry. One Forbes writer called the White House’s posture “confused.”

  More here:

  We so often see the President saying one thing in public as his appointees in the federal bureaucracy are doing the opposite. … Mr. Biden has frequently called for the domestic industry to produce more oil and gas, refine more gasoline and ramp up exports of liquefied natural gas to Europe, while his agencies continue to hold up permitting, issue restrictive new regulations, and issue rulings that directly inhibit companies’ ability to get their business done.

  Despite the Fourth of July holiday, the administration worked overtime last weekend, sending mixed messages or considering new policies that won’t help. Here they are, along with how to fix each one.

  Mistake #1: Delaying and Minimizing a New 5-Year Offshore Oil and Natural Gas Leasing Program 

  Past 5:00 p.m. on the Friday evening of a holiday weekend, the administration’s long-awaited draft plan for a 5-year program for development along the Outer Continental Shelf finally was released to the public. Incredibly, the plan contemplates holding zero to 10 auctions in the Gulf of Mexico over the next five years, plus the possibility of one in Alaska’s Cook Inlet. Leaving open the possibility of no offshore lease sales puts U.S. producers at a disadvantage on the global stage, puts our economic and national security at risk (look no further than Europe), and could put upward pressure on prices due to lack of supply. 

  Solution #1: The Department of the Interior (DOI) should lift developmental restrictions on federal lands and waters. They should scrap any talk of conducting zero lease sales deep into the 2020s. They should issue a robust 5-year programfor the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) and hold mandated quarterly onshore lease sales with equitable terms. Additionally, DOI should reinstate canceled sales and valid leases on federal lands and waters. 

  There is an environmental argument for production, too. Even DOI states that “global emissions are only incrementally higher with new leasing compared to no new sales,” according to Axios – and a previous 2016 government analysis suggested U.S. greenhouse gas emissions could actually increase slightly in the absence of new OCS leasing.

  Mistake #2: Considering New Obstacles to Drilling in America’s Most Productive Oil-Producing Region

  The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) last week announced it may soon rule that parts of the Permian Basin – which accounts for 44 percent of total U.S. daily oil production – are in “non-attainment” status under the agency’s ozone regulations. 

  Solution #2: Given the obstacles to global supply we’ve already discussed above, President Biden should simply issue an order instructing EPA to stand down. Through methane-reduction efforts like The Environmental Partnership and others, oil and natural gas industry is already making headway to advance a lower-carbon future. 

  Instead of unproductive and burdensome regulatory ideas like this one, Congress and the administration should expand and extend Section 45Q tax credits for carbon capture, utilization, and storage development and create a new tax credit for hydrogen produced from all sources.

  Mistake #3: Asking Gasoline Station Owners to Adjust to Market Forces Outside Their Control

  On Saturday, President Biden used his online bully pulpit to tweet the following: “My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a time of war and global peril. Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you’re paying for the product. And do it now.” While the sentiments may come from a good place, the understanding of the market fundamentals is off-base.

  Solution #3: More American oil production is the answer – and federal policies that support it are necessary. Look no further than API’s new 10-in-22 plan. 

  Finally, when it comes to retail fuel sales, less than 1 percent of all convenience stores that sell gasoline are owned by major oil companies. Virtually all gasoline stations are independently owned – not owned by major oil companies – and of those, about 60 percent are owned by individuals. 

  Retail stations set prices to be competitive in their local market. They must factor the need to pay for the next delivery of gasoline (i.e., replacement costs) into the price they set. If supply is seen as dropping relative to demand, this can place upward pressure on price and can be factored into the retailer’s pricing decision. While gasoline prices have historically been close to prices paid at the distribution terminal supplied by refiners, the price at the pump also reflects local market conditions.

  Local conditions and competition can be key contributing forces to timing price changes, and attempting to use federal pressure to alter local market outcomes is a fundamental misunderstanding of them.

  Bottom line: As energy demand outpaces supply, geopolitical tensions continue to rise, and supply chain issues continue to plague U.S. producers, policymakers should do everything they can to encourage and incentivize all energy development – not restrict access to American oil and natural gas.

  *  *  *

  Kevin O’Scannlain is API’s vice president of Upstream Policy. Before coming to API, Kevin served in the White House as Special Assistant to the President in two different roles, and as Deputy Solicitor for Energy & Minerals at the U.S. Department of the Interior. Prior to that, he was an attorney for Chevron, DLA Piper LLP, and the U.S. Senate. O’Scannlain is a graduate of the College of the Holy Cross and Notre Dame Law School. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sat, 07/09/2022 – 14:30

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• China Holds War Drills Around Taiwan "Directed" At US Senator's Visit To Island
  China Holds War Drills Around Taiwan “Directed” At US Senator’s Visit To Island

  China is again conducting major military exercises in waters around Taiwan, according to state media reports, which further decried US support to Taiwan separatist forces as “futile”.  

  China’s Defense Ministry was cited in Reuters as describing the drills as a warning aimed at the visit of a US senator. It said “China firmly opposes the visit by a US senator to Taiwan which severely damages the relationship of the two countries and two militaries, while it added that the drill near Taiwan is directed at US and Taiwan provocation.”

  US Senator Rick Scott of Florida arrived in Taiwan on Thursday afternoon for a two-day visit. Importantly, his visit marks no less than the seventh US senator to visit the democratic-run island this year alone. This after a group of six senators made an unannounced visit in April led by chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Bob Menendez, which Beijing also vehemently denounced.

  

  “Scott is scheduled to meet with President Tsai Ying-wen and Premier Su Tseng-chang during his visit, the ministry said, adding that Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu was to host a banquet to welcome him,” regional sources detailed of his trip.

  Meanwhile a top China official who overseas cross-strait affairs on Thursday declared that “reunification” of the island remains at the center of national rejuvenation plans.

  According to The South China Post:

  In an article published in People’s Daily on Thursday, Liu Jieyi, head of the Taiwan Affairs Office, said one focus of the strategy would be preventing and resolving major risks and hidden dangers in the Taiwan Strait, creating a “favorable environment” for national rejuvenation.

  “Our growing comprehensive strength and significant institutional advantages continue to be transformed into efficiency in work related to Taiwan issues and push forward the process of national reunification,” Liu said.

  The concept of “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan has been pushed by Beijing for decades; however, Liu in his op-ed reiterated that China has never ruled out the option of using force.

  Top Beijing officials have also recently gone on record to say that US stoking “independence forces” remains a bright red line which could result in war. But in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine over the last more than four months, the Biden administration has been wary that President Xi could borrow from Putin’s playbook and stage a ‘shock’ blitz of the island.

  

  Taiwan has condemned the fresh PLA military drills as a “provocation” and has put its forces on high alert, as China sends fighter jets across the strait as part of its typical messaging. Taiwan’s air force in turn scrambled fighters to intercept and warn off the Chinese aircraft.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 23:20

• Russia Abandons The Construction Of A Natural Gas Pipeline To India And Japan
  Russia Abandons The Construction Of A Natural Gas Pipeline To India And Japan

  By Seetao,

  Russian media recently reported that Alexander Perov, the head of the Russian Energy Security Fund, said that Gazprom had given up on the construction of pipelines in India and Japan considering politics and cost factors.

  Gazprom Vice President Yelena Bulmistrova announced at a press conference that the construction of the natural gas pipeline from Russia to India has been postponed, calling it “a route that is too capital-intensive.”

  According to the report, Perov said in response to the statement made by the Gazprom representative: “Negotiating on natural gas pipelines began as early as 2017, and India supports the implementation of such projects. However, it was clear from the beginning that the project has many geographies. Political risk. The main problem is related to the area through which the pipeline needs to pass. Therefore, it is foreseeable that Gazprom, as one of the project participants, will have such a position as it is today. After properly assessing the difficulties, Russia is unwilling to accept this. Program.”

  

  Iran first proposed the idea of laying a pipeline from Pakistan to India in 1996. At that time, the country planned to spend 7 billion U.S. dollars to build a 2,775-kilometer-long natural gas pipeline, with the South Pars producing area as the gas source. The report also said that the geopolitical differences between countries and the opposition of the United States have caused the project to be repeatedly postponed. In 2008, Washington imposed sanctions on Iran because of its dissatisfaction with Iran’s nuclear program, which further deteriorated the situation.

  According to the report, many quarrels have prompted India to change its vision, terminate cooperation with Iran, and begin to develop alternative pipelines from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan.

  Perov pointed out that if all the ideas of India are implemented, Russia will face many challenges, because the pipeline will pass through the mountains in Afghanistan, and the latter is the focus of the United States. The report quoted the expert as emphasizing: “All of this will bring high financial costs. This factor proves the correctness of the current position of the Russian multinational energy company.”

  Bulmistrova also announced that the company would not consider laying the natural gas pipeline from Russia to Japan proposed in 2017. According to the report, according to the vision of both parties, the 15,000-kilometer pipeline will connect Hokkaido and Sakhalin Island at a cost of 6.7 billion U.S. dollars.

  Perov pointed out that under the current decision, Russia will have a gas source problem: Russia’s gas field is difficult to support such a large-scale bilateral project. The report also said that experts believe that in order to make up for the possible losses caused by the unfulfilled plan, Gazprom needs to consider developing LNG projects in the Far East. Editor/Xu Shengpeng

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 23:00

• Justin Trudeau Offers Canadians Incentives To Distract Them From Inflation Caused By Carbon Taxes
  Justin Trudeau Offers Canadians Incentives To Distract Them From Inflation Caused By Carbon Taxes

  With stagflation becoming a rising concern not just for Americans but also Canadians, the pious pontificating from climate alarmists on the virtues of carbon controls is taking a back seat to more legitimate economic fears.  No one cares about carbon “pollution” when they can barely feed and house their families.

  Across the board, calls for cheaper energy alternatives are growing.  Every western nation is pushing for more coal power and more nuclear power as oil prices inflate.  At the same time, food and other necessities are witnessing a price explosion unlike anything we have seen in the past 40 years.  

  Not surprisingly, though, many environmentalists and political elites are heralding inflation as a perfect opportunity to enforce a new Green Agenda much like the Green New Deal.  With prices climbing higher, carbon taxes on various industries and families can be introduced and the public won’t know what percentage of inflation is being caused by currency devaluation, supply chain problems or by artificially instituted carbon costs.  

  If prices are already high, then maybe the population will get used to the lower standard of living that will inevitably be associated with carbon controls?

  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is implementing a not-so-novel solution to potential public resistance by introducing carbon tax credits or carbon checks, which certain families will receive four times a year.  Lower income families with two children will receive up to $745 a year depending on the province in which they live.  The measure appears to be very similar to “inflation checks” offered by California’s governor Gavin Newsom in the wake of crushing price increases. 

  

  Of course, these tax incentives are paltry when compared to the overall cost of carbon controls and the affects they will have on people’s pocket books.  $745 in a year is nowhere near enough to make up for higher food costs, let alone the rising prices in other necessities.

  Will Canadians be conned by scraps from the government’s vast tax table?  Hopefully not. The Canadian government says the incentive payments mean 80% of families will be better off financially compared to what they pay in carbon taxes.  However, the parliamentary budget officer says when the total impact of Trudeau’s carbon tax on the economy is considered, 60% of families are left worse off.  This is probably still generous.  

  Keep in mind that carbon taxes are being pursued in the name of stopping global warming, which even the NOAA admits has only resulted in a 1 degree Celsius increase in global temperatures in the past century.  This May, the NOAA indicated that global temps were only 0.77C above average.  The average is derived from an incredibly short temperature record which officially starts in the 1880s.  Yet, the public is supposed to entertain visions of environmental catastrophe and clamor for taxation on the air we breath?

   

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 22:40

• Tackling Middlemen Should Be A Priority To Lower Prescription Prices
  Tackling Middlemen Should Be A Priority To Lower Prescription Prices

  Authored by Tom Price via RealClear Policy (emphasis ours),

  The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) recently voted unanimously to turn up the heat on the middlemen of the drug supply chain. The agency is opening up an investigation into Pharmacy Benefits Managers (PBMs) for their role in “raising the price that consumers pay for medicine,” among other questionable behaviors.

  

  For years, PBMs have used their position as gatekeepers to the consumer market to enrich themselves and insurance companies — conduct that has attracted the attention of regulators, policymakers, and the public as consumer drug costs balloon. Since the year 2000, spending in the U.S. on pharmaceuticals has nearly tripled.

  How is the extra cost making its way to consumers? You see, drug makers typically provide discounts in the form of rebates alongside their products, which in a perfect world would translate to more affordable medicine. But under the current middlemen scheme, those savings never make it to the patient at the pharmacy counter. The money is instead sucked-up by PBMs.

  A snapshot of the past four years provides a good illustration of what’s happening. Since 2018, the net price of brand name drugs (meaning the sticker price with the discounts applied) has actually declined every year. But the average consumer wouldn’t know that. The price they pay — after the medicine passes through PBMs — has actually gone up. In other words, the drug makers aren’t driving consumer price increases — middlemen are.

  That’s why a Democratic proposal to apply government price controls on prescription drugs without a strategy to rein in PBMs is full of hot air. Government price setting might temporarily treat the symptoms but not the root cause of why medicine costs are rising. And in the long run, the approach will suppress the innovation required to develop new lifesaving treatments, therapies, and vaccines.

  Democrats have a pattern of advocating for healthcare reform that is long on style, but short on effectiveness. Obamacare is a good example.

  During debate over the 2010 healthcare overhaul, the White House continually pushed the idea that the reform would save the average family $2,500 annually. But the “cost saving” elements of Obamacare are sleight of hand. Healthcare costs are still going up, but those increases are hidden by government subsidies. If the government handout were to disappear, monthly premiums would jump dramatically.

  It’s far from a hypothetical scenario. Enhanced Obamacare subsidies that were included in the Biden administration’s $2 trillion pandemic-era spending bill are set to expire come 2023. When that happens, average monthly health insurance bills will more than double for the roughly 13 million Americans who receive subsidies on Obamacare exchanges. The only way to stop it is for Congress to squeeze taxpayers even tighter to cover the difference.

  Rather than attempting to manipulate prices via the heavy hand of government, lawmakers should look to the free market for help. Injecting price transparency, providing patients with more healthcare choices, and cutting bureaucracy from the patient-doctor relationship will lower prices while also improving the quality of care.

  When it comes to healthcare reform, policies that come out of Congress are often shortsighted and ineffective at addressing the root problem. Pushing a plan to address rising medicine prices without a component to tackle PBM middlemen is the latest example. Hopefully, the FTC investigation helps some policymakers see the light.

  Tom Price, a former secretary of Health and Human Services and a former member of Congress, is a senior healthcare policy fellow at the Job Creators Network. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 22:20

• Vegas Mulls Curfew For Under-21s After Recent Shootings
  Vegas Mulls Curfew For Under-21s After Recent Shootings

  Las Vegas Mayor Carolyn Goodman, Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department (LVMPD), and casino bosses are mulling over a possible curfew for anyone under 21 years old after a string of recent shootings and violence in Sin City’s downtown district, according to local news Fox 5. 

  One of the most recent shootings was outside the Fremont Street Experience in downtown Vegas on July 4. Footage of the incident posted on Twitter shows a group of young adults fighting, and then gunshots rang out. 

  Video footage of the fight and subsequent shooting on Fremont Street last night. (Warning: violent content) pic.twitter.com/tGA278GwEv

  — Las Vegas Locally 🌴 (@LasVegasLocally) July 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Following the shocking incident, Goodman tweeted that her administration, LVMPD, and property owners on the Vegas Strip all concluded they would “not tolerate violence/crime.” 

  She said LVMPD and city marshals boosted the number of patrols in the downtown area and added, “Our City Attorney will prosecute violators to the fullest, and we’re exploring a curfew for those under 21.”

  Goodman’s announcement also comes after a June 19 shooting on Fremont left a 23-year-old dead. According to authorities, several people got into a fight inside a casino that escalated into gunfire on the street. A 16-year-old suspect was arrested in connection to the shooting. 

  Vegas is a playground and Disneyland for adults, and its economy heavily depends on tourism. The one thing the city and casino bosses cannot afford is the glitzy stretch of downtown Vegas plagued with violent crime because vacationers and convention planners could begin to steer clear of the town.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 22:00

• US State Department Offers $10 Million Reward for Info On Foreign Election Interference
  US State Department Offers $10 Million Reward for Info On Foreign Election Interference

  Authored by Nicole Hao via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The U.S. Department of State has recently rolled out an incentive to reward individuals up to $10 million for providing any information on foreign inference in U.S. elections.

  

  In the past five decades, foreign election interference has been reported in the United States, such as in the 1968 presidential election. In the past seven years, it has become one of the hottest topics in the country, particularly about alleged Russian and Chinese interference in the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections.

  The Department of State announced on June 30 that its Rewards for Justice program “seeks information leading to the identification or location of any foreign person or entity who knowingly engaged or is engaging in foreign election interference.”

  Furthermore, the reward offer “seeks information leading to the prevention, frustration, or favorable resolution of an act of foreign election interference, including by dismantling, in whole or significant part, an organization engaged in such activity,” according to its website.

  China’s Interference in US Elections

  The Chinese regime’s interference in the U.S. elections has been publicly acknowledged by its own economist.

  In his July 2016 speech on “Sino-U.S. Strategic Philosophy,” Jin Canrong, a professor and associate dean of the School of International Studies at Beijing’s Renmin University of China, explained how the regime interferes in U.S. elections to bring pro-Beijing candidates to power.

  “The Chinese government wants to arrange Chinese investments in every single congressional district to control thousands of voters in each district,” Jin said.

  He claimed that with the U.S. population standing at about 312 million across 435 congressional districts at the time, there were roughly 750,000 residents living in each district.

  “The voting rate in the United States is about 30 percent, which means around 200,000 residents in each congressional district vote for the representative in that district,” Jin said. “Normally, the difference of votes between two candidates is 10,000 or less. If China has thousands of votes on hand, China will be the boss of the candidates.”

  Jin said Beijing’s ambition is to control at least the House.

  

  “The best scenario is China can buy the United States and change the U.S. House of Representatives into the second Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress,” he said, referring to the committee that oversees the CCP’s rubber-stamp legislature.

  In recent years, Beijing did more than Jin mentioned to interfere in the U.S. elections.

  To influence U.S. public opinion against Republicans during the 2018 midterm elections, Chinese state media China Daily ran a four-page advertorial in the Des Moines Register—one of Iowa’s top newspapers—with content about the Sino-U.S. trade war impacting the exporting of soybeans to China. Iowa was a swing state, with multiple state and federal political offices up for election. Soybeans have been Beijing’s main weapon in the trade dispute.

  In 2020, the CCP made clear through its state-run media that it favored a presidency under then-Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden because he would be “smoother” to deal with than Trump.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 21:40

• Biden Comms Staffer Lies About Extremely 'Senior Moment' With Teleprompter – Then White House Lies Too
  Biden Comms Staffer Lies About Extremely ‘Senior Moment’ With Teleprompter – Then White House Lies Too

  For those who paid attention to President Biden’s attempt at giving a speech on Friday, you may have noticed that the 79-year-old president has gone full Ron Burgandy – reading literally whatever is on the teleprompter, including “end of quote” and “repeat the line” – which were obviously cues for Biden’s ‘inside voice’ and not to be read.

  In case you missed Biden’s incredibly incoherent speech just now, here’s a quick 21 second recap. pic.twitter.com/GlF0srePda

  — Kyle Martinsen (@KyleMartinsen_) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe flubs led to mass ridicule over Biden’s senior moments…

  Whoever controls the teleprompter is the real President! pic.twitter.com/1rcqmwLe9S

  — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 8, 2022

  Enter Emilie Simons, Biden’s assistant press secretary (and former Adam Schiff comms director) – who straight-up lies, claiming Biden ackshually said: “let me repeat the line.”

  No. He said, “let me repeat that line.”

  — Emilie Simons (@EmilieSimons46) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Which earned Simons a nice ratio…

  

  And then she doubled down…

  Self retweeting the ratio is a whole new level of misuse of the internet pic.twitter.com/JlqpB7zVFh

  — Matt (@MRickG_) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  In response, digital strategist Greg Price slows down the clip to emphasize her lie.

  It’s even funnier when you realize Biden literally did not say what his comms staffer is telling you he said.pic.twitter.com/PFC6wTY4n5 https://t.co/9FzzuXcQYY

  — Greg Price (@greg_price11) July 8, 2022

  Oh wow you were Adam Schiff’s comms director before this?!?! You literally get paid to lie for a living.

  Is the Russian collusion still hiding in plain sight?

  — Greg Price (@greg_price11) July 8, 2022

  The White House also repeated Simons’ lie!

  White House transcript of Biden remarks is now incorrectly aligned with what this WH assistant press secretary falsely claimed on Twitter, despite the video showing Biden clearly stating “End of quote. Repeat the line.” & *not* “Let me repeat the line.”https://t.co/fJrzgfdbEy https://t.co/GX3zftIEtB pic.twitter.com/snrRHnHRIr

  — Jerry Dunleavy (@JerryDunleavy) July 8, 2022

  The White House is falsifying an official Biden speech transcript to try to win a Twitter fight.

  — Jerry Dunleavy (@JerryDunleavy) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Even if he did say “let me repeat that line” (which he didn’t), he did not go on to repeat the line.

  — jujubea (@jujubea10) July 8, 2022

  Stay classy, America pic.twitter.com/AO9wWEiMoL

  — Daily Wire (@realDailyWire) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  pic.twitter.com/DklJCfn7WZ

  — Sean Davis (@seanmdav) July 8, 2022

  Remember when the media tried to gaslight us into believing Biden was totally, completely, absolutely supposed to say “end of quote” out loud? https://t.co/EDr6FCFXGz

  — Stephen Miller (@StephenM) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  

  Great job making this go even more viral, Emilie…

  Then there was this gem:

  Joe Biden claims that the assassination of Former Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe is “is the first use of a weapon to murder someone in in Japan.” pic.twitter.com/YOHWTv90K0

  — Townhall.com (@townhallcom) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsMeanwhile, today’s press briefing was a hot mess:

  JUST NOW: Fight erupts between WH Staff and Reporter at the White House Press Briefing

  Jean-Pierre: “Sir you’re being rude”

  Reporter: “I’m gonna stand up here and ask my questions” pic.twitter.com/cKlDgEHIQc

  — Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsUpdate: Ratio intensifies…

  

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 21:34

• US Embassy Warns Americans To Avoid Tijuana Amid Cartel War Threats 
  US Embassy Warns Americans To Avoid Tijuana Amid Cartel War Threats 

  Americans might want to reconsider their travel plans to Mexico’s Baja California peninsula after the U.S. Embassy issued a startling new travel warning about cartel clashes with government security forces and elevated risk of kidnappings and possibly even death. 

  The U.S. Embassy in Mexico City issued the notice on July 4, warning Americans about traveling to Tijuana and Rosarito, Baja California, following the arrest “of a prominent cartel leader” and the rising probabilities “for confrontations between criminal organizations and Mexican security forces.” 

  “U.S. citizens should expect to encounter increased Mexican law enforcement presence in those areas. Criminal organization assassinations and territorial disputes can result in bystanders being injured or killed,” the travel advisory stated.

  The Department of State’s Travel Advisory for Baja California has been raised to Level 3, indicating that U.S. tourists are at risk of being injured, killed, or even kidnapped. 

  

  The good news for those visiting Cabo San Lucas, San Jose del Cabo, and La Paz, located on the southern tip of Mexico’s Baja California peninsula, is that there are no travel warnings, even for U.S. government employees. However, the Department of State does say, “exercise increased caution due to crime.” 

  Meanwhile, other popular tourist regions, including Cancun, Playa del Carmen, and Tulum, have become chaotic as violent crime on beaches and even inside resort compounds (read: Shooting Erupts At Popular Mexican Beach Resort Again As Cartel Turf-War Escalates) has exploded. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 21:20

• Comedian Refuses Woke Streamer's Demand To Censor Abortion Jokes; Buys Own Special Back For $1 Million
  Comedian Refuses Woke Streamer’s Demand To Censor Abortion Jokes; Buys Own Special Back For $1 Million

  Comic Andrew Schulz has used his life savings to buy his upcoming comedy special, “Infamous,” back from a previously-unnamed streaming service, which “freaked out” and wanted him to edit or cut entire jokes deemed too “wild.”

  

  A well-placed industry insider tells ZeroHedge that while Schulz has worked with Netflix in the past, Amazon is the streaming service in question, and Schulz spent $1 million to buy it back for self-release at his website, theandrewschulz.com.

  “Some of you probably know this about me, I’m a very stubborn guy, so long story short, I took my f—ing life savings and I bought my special back,” he told his followers on social media, asking them to “spread the word” so that his “gamble” pays off.

  Here’s the story about the special.

  It’s simple really. I’m not gonna edit my material and cut out jokes bc a network is worried about Twitter backlash. That’s it.

  I don’t know if this will work. I hope like hell it does. But that’s up to y’all.

  Let’s change the game. pic.twitter.com/cUF6oD7sdt

  — Andrew Schulz 👑HEZI (@andrewschulz) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “I think people like real authentic comedy, and I think that they would prefer that than some watered down corporate boardroom bullshit,” he added, according to The Wrap, noting that his fans “seem to really enjoy these jokes that are ‘too offensive’ or could cause too much backlash.”

  Let’s watch what Amazon deemed too “wild,” shall we?

  Schulz previously released a four-part Netflix special in 2020 titled “Schulz Saves America.”

  Update: ZH reader “Lord Baltimore” sums it up nicely: “It’s perfectly acceptable for Progressives to sponsor drag events for children but abortion jokes are too “wild”. Got it.”

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 21:15

• Labor Dept. Made $77.2 Billion In Improper Unemployment Insurance Payments In 2021: IG
  Labor Dept. Made $77.2 Billion In Improper Unemployment Insurance Payments In 2021: IG

  Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  More than $77 billion of the unemployment insurance (UI) program’s total of $413 billion in payments in 2021 were made improperly, according to a report from the Department of Labor’s Office of Inspector General (IG).

  

  The Labor Department (DOL) “published an improper payment rate of 18.71 percent for the UI program, which resulted in an estimated $77.2 billion in reported gross improper payments,” the IG reported. The improper payment rate for the previous year was 9.17 percent, equal to about $37.8 billion.

  “Additionally, DOL published an unknown payment rate of 0.21 percent, which resulted in estimated unknown payments of $865 million. These estimates were based on a statistical estimation approach that met a 95 percent confidence level, plus or minus 3 percent,” the report said.

  The IG report was prompted by requirements of the Payment Integrity Information Act of 2019, which requires federal departments and agencies to establish and report to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) improper payment rates in government benefit programs, as well as annual targets for reducing those rates.

  The 18.71 percent rate of improper UI payments in 2021 represents a significant increase for the program, which saw a steadily improving trend during the previous four years of President Donald Trump’s administration.

  The rate at the end of the first year of Trump’s tenure was 12.11 percent. The rate increased to 12.63 percent the following year, but then plunged to 10.21 percent in 2019, and to 2020’s 9.17 percent, according to data provided by paymentaccuracy.gov.

  Rep. Rick Allen (R-Ga.), a member of the House Education and Labor Committee, told The Epoch Times on July 6 that he’s co-sponsoring legislation to address examples of wasteful federal spending like that highlighted by the IG report.

  “It’s unacceptable that criminals utilized a global health crisis to defraud the United States government’s unemployment programs. Even worse, the misguided Biden administration policies, which discouraged people from going back to work, incentivized scammers to steal more money from the American taxpayer,” he said.

  “Congress must now fulfill its oversight duties and help hold these criminals accountable. I am a proud co-sponsor of [Texas Republican] Rep. Kevin Brady’s Chase COVID Unemployment Fraud Act, which would empower the states to recover the money lost to fraud.”

  Brady is the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee that oversees unemployment insurance.

  Other Republicans on the Ways and Means panel also blasted the improper payments and lauded the measure originally introduced by Brady.

  Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-Ind.) told The Epoch Times that “it is painfully obvious that brazen criminals capitalized on pandemic relief programs and stole billions from hardworking American taxpayers,” and she urged Biden and congressional Democrats “to work with us to take this crisis seriously, expose fraud, and hold criminals accountable. We must send a clear signal that fraud will not be tolerated.”

  Similarly, Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) said, “House Democrats refused to hold a single Ways and Means oversight hearing to address the growing problem of unchecked improper payments,” adding that “it shouldn’t surprise folks that a new, big-government program that incentivizes folks to not return to work—and had zero oversight—is ripe for fraud.”

  And Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) told The Epoch Times that “the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress have shown no interest in holding these fraudulent actors accountable. That is why I am an original co-sponsor of the Chase COVID Unemployment Fraud Act, a bill to protect taxpayers by clawing back funds and recovering these improper payments. This is a priority for me now, and it will certainly remain a priority when Republicans control the House.”

  On the other side of Capitol Hill, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), the Senate’s most visible foe of waste, fraud, and abuse in the government, told The Epoch Times, “It’s no surprise that we are seeing a record level of fraud and abuse of taxpayer dollars being reported in the wake of wasteful and unsupervised government  spending under the guise of COVID,” said Ernst. “The federal government needs to take every step possible to recover fraudulent payment and put safeguards in place to stop future abuses like this from happening again.”

  The IG didn’t offer an analysis to account for the doubling of the improper payment rate in only the first year of President Joe Biden’s administration, except to note that DOL included within the UI program expenditures made under the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) program and the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) program.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 21:00

• Sanctions Risk "Catastrophic Energy Prices" That Will Take Long To Correct, Putin Warns
  Sanctions Risk “Catastrophic Energy Prices” That Will Take Long To Correct, Putin Warns

  Russian President Vladimir Putin told a government meeting on Friday that the domestic energy industry remains stable despite suffering setbacks from Western sanctions in the wake of the Ukraine war. He repeated a recent familiar talking point that sanctions are backfiring on the West: “The so-called economic blitzkrieg that our detractors have planned for us has failed,” Putin stressed in comments translated in state media.

  And Bloomberg cited the Russian leader as saying, “Western countries have made mistakes with their energy sanctions that have led to a price rally and will be hard to correct ” – something which he said won’t be “corrected within a couple of days”.

  

  “We know that Europeans are trying to replace Russian energy resources, but the result of such actions is predictably an increase in gas prices in on-the-spot markets and an increase in the cost of energy resources for consumers, including households,” Putin said, in reference to recent headlines inundating US and European media detailing widespread consumer angst at the pump.

  The situation is already going from bad to worse in Germany, as one recent Fortune headline spelled out, ‘The situation is more than dramatic’: Germany is rationing hot water and turning off the lights to reduce natural gas consumption.

  “You can’t fix the mistakes that have already been made in just two days,” Putin explained in the fresh remarks of US-led efforts to get allied producers to boost output. He said further, per Reuters:

  “All this once again shows that sanctions restrictions on Russia cause much more damage to those countries that impose them. Further use of sanctions may lead to even more severe – without exaggeration, even catastrophic – consequences on the global energy market.”

  Putin also echoed prior warnings of his on how misled the ‘green energy’ obsession was in Europe, and that ultimately his words against energy market related sanctions “fell on deaf ears” with the common population in the West now suffering the consequences.

  “Analysts at JPMorgan have warned that oil prices could soar towards $380 a barrel if Moscow slashed exports as “a way to inflict pain on the west”.”
  https://t.co/L3kaYfkBEE

  — Policy Tensor (@policytensor) July 8, 2022

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  The comments appear most directly aimed at EU leaders who are still debating imposition of both a total embargo on Russian oil (at this point its merely ‘partial’ with significant exceptions given to big consumers like Hungary), and a Russian energy price cap.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 20:40

• Biden Eschews Diplomacy, Chooses Path To War With Iran
  Biden Eschews Diplomacy, Chooses Path To War With Iran

  Authored by Connor Freeman via The Libertarian Institute,

  There can now be little doubt—if there ever was any—that Washington’s intransigence is preventing the Iran nuclear deal’s restoration. Even in the face of an unending series of new U.S. sanctions, Israeli bombings in Syria, as well as Tel Aviv’s repeated covert operations, cyberattacks, drone strikes, and murders inside Iran itself, Tehran has remained steadfastly committed to diplomacy. Paying an immense political cost, the so-called hardliners in Tehran, led by President Ebrahim Raisi, even made the unprecedented decision to drop their demands for the elite military unit, the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to be delisted from the State Department’s Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) blacklist.

  The Iranians called Biden’s bluff.

  In yet another sign that they earnestly wish to conclude the essentially finalized deal, Tehran even purged their negotiating team of hardliners. Whereas the Americans went into last week’s Doha talks with “very low expectations,” and reportedly offered Iran no guarantees of economic benefits. After Doha, it looks as though Biden’s team will only continue to prove they were lying all along about rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This permanently aggressive policy will surely kill the deal, increase regional tensions, stoke war, and once again soil America’s reputation for future diplomatic endeavors.

  

  Since 2019, the IRGC has been the only state military organization on this FTO blacklist. Former president and ultra-Zionist Donald Trump made the provocative move precisely because it is what the neocons, Tel Aviv, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Manama wanted. The FTO issue is designed to keep the Democrats from ever returning to the JCPOA. The neocons’ “sanctions wall” plan is working well.

  The State Department has cynically pretended it is Tehran that has irrevocably stalled talks, laughably suggesting they want to “bury” the deal because of their refusal to budge on this allegedly “extraneous” issue. Tellingly, the Biden team has yet to acknowledge the massive concession. In fact, it is rare to see any mention of this critical news even in the independent media, let alone the corporate press. Those interested would have to read Middle East Eye, Antiwar.com, or the Libertarian Institute to even know Tehran dropped this understandable demand.

  They were certainly not obligated to concede either, for this sweeping sanction against all current and former IRGC members, including many men—including doctors and musicians—who were conscripted often into non-combat roles acts as a de facto travel ban, breaks up families, and causes numerous disruptions. The sanction is an indisputable ancillary of Trump’s “Maximum Pressure” campaign.

  The European Union diplomats such as nuclear negotiator Enrique Mora and more recently foreign policy chief Josep Borrel have traveled to Tehran and desperately tried keep negotiations going in the face of Biden’s Maximum Pressure and Israel’s attacks. In May, Mora made the trip, broke a two months long deadlock, announced talks would resume soon, and announced a deal was within sight.

  The Israelis answered this positive news with an assassination campaign that has probably killed six Iranians, including a drone strike on a military complex that killed an engineer. Assassination targets are namely IRGC members and scientists working in the aerospace industry, missile, and drone programs. While the Israelis have carried out drones strikes inside Iran for years, currently one of the main focuses in terms of their propaganda vis a vis Iran’s military is their so called “UAV terror.”

  Late last year, this was apparently noted by Iran hawks in Congress who have sought the expansion of sanctions to target Tehran’s drone program. These lawmakers attempt to blame Iran for the Houthis’ retaliations against their Saudi enemies. Of course, the missing context is that the U.S.-backed Saudis and Emiratis have waged a seven year genocide against the Houthis and the helpless Yemeni civilian population, bombing virtually all critical civilian infrastructure, killing people by the hundreds of thousands, mostly children under five. During the war, the entire country, the region’s poorest nation, has been blockaded by the Americans and the Saudis, precluding the unproven Iranian drone transfers.

  But despite America’s war in Yemen being the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, these legislators, echoing the Israelis, liberally peddle claims of an Iranian air, missile, and drone threat to justify further U.S. entrenchment in the Middle East as well as the main objective of forging an American led, anti-Iran, NATO style alliance. With Biden’s upcoming Middle East trip, he will reportedly may be offering security guarantees to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.

  Biden’s goal is to help Tel Aviv build this Middle East mini-NATO including Israel’s fellow Abraham Accords members who are collectively encircling Iran.

  As Dave DeCamp, Antiwar.com news editor, reports,

  Israel has increased military ties with regional countries as a result of the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords, which saw Israel normalize relations with the UAE and Bahrain. Saudi Arabia has been hesitant to open up relations with Israel, but the two nations have quietly increased military cooperation.

  “Part of the purpose is…is to deepen Israel’s integration in the region, which I think we’re going to be able to do and which is good—good for peace and good for Israeli security,” Biden told reporters at the NATO summit in Madrid. “And that’s why Israel leaders have come out so strongly for my going to Saudi,” he added.

  Israel has been lobbying Biden to visit Saudi Arabia and reportedly wants the U.S.’s approval to send Riyadh a new laser missile defense system, known as the Iron Laser. The alliance that Israel is working to build in the region is focused on integrated air defense systems, according to Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz.

  It is not difficult to see where this policy is leading us. The U.S. Empire is pivoting to Asia and Europe. This shift away from the Middle East is unacceptable for America’s client states. Seeing the writing on the wall, these states first turned to diplomacy to resolve long held issues among neighboring adversaries, including importantly a series of Baghdad brokered talks between Tehran and Riyadh which may resume soon.

  However, Washington and Israel will not allow this rebalancing. Along with China and Russia becoming more involved in the region, these ostensibly positive developments pose a threat to Israel and America’s regional hegemony. Biden’s Maximum Pressure and this burgeoning alliance, are intended to reassure the restive satellites, the policy increases the chances of war with Iran beyond anything we have seen in decades.

  America’s brutal myriad wars in the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa have claimed millions of lives, shredded our bill of rights, and—including interest—have cost more than ten trillion dollars. The Empire has wrecked our economy for generations. Fighting yet another war against not just one of Iran’s allies like Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but as Naftali Bennett says the “head of the octopus” itself, for apartheid Israel and its Gulf dictatorship partners is something Americans simply cannot afford.

  The U.S. is broke, more than $30 trillion in debt, oil prices are soaring, inflation is skyrocketing, shortages have been normalized, civil unrest is boiling, and all the while the Blob is playing nuclear chicken with Russia and China.

  Veterans still commit suicide at alarming rates over their experiences in prior, illegal, and unconstitutional wars.

  As the Cato Institute’s Doug Bandow has written,

  Alas for the US, it is not only foreigners who suffer, often in prodigious numbers, from Washington’s myriad military misadventures. Americans do too. More than 7000 US personnel and nearly 8000 contractors have died in combat since 9/11. Some 30,000 military personnel and veterans of the “terrorism” wars committed suicide over the last two decades. Another 52,000 were wounded in combat, but the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs contends that the number harmed by their service “is exponentially larger” since Pentagon accounting does not include other injuries in theater as well as conditions diagnosed after personnel return home.

  Americans urgently need to thoroughly rebuke the Bush-Clinton foreign policy consensus that dragged us into this devastating and chaotic era.

  Barack Obama and Trump promised to be different, respectively to end the mindset that led to the Iraq war and leave the Middle East where we should never have been in the first place. But they lied. Instead both doubled down on the wars in the Middle East and Africa, and picked unnecessary fights with Russia and China. Along with diplomacy eschewing Biden, they made global thermonuclear war a serious possibility.

  Hopefully we have finally learned some hard lessons during these last 30 years of mass murder and destruction. We cannot allow Biden—”Israel’s man in Washington,” the man who wrote the Patriot Act and whipped the Senate into supporting the Iraq War—to now start a war with Iran. The JCPOA is key to taking war off the table, and hence why it has practically no support in Washington.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 20:20

• Blinken Tells Lavrov "Let The Grain Out" Of Ukraine As China, India & Brazil Refuse Condemnation
  Blinken Tells Lavrov “Let The Grain Out” Of Ukraine As China, India & Brazil Refuse Condemnation

  We detailed earlier that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stormed out of a meeting of G20 foreign ministers in Bali, Indonesia on Friday, citing that other countries had grown distracted through “fevered” condemnation of Russia for its Ukraine invasion.

  The United States’ criticism at the meeting centered on stalled global food supply, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken using the occasion to demand that Russia open up ports and let the grain out of Ukraine. “To our Russian colleagues: Ukraine is not your country. Its grain is not your grain. Why are you blocking the ports? You should let the grain out,” Blinken said before top diplomats in closed-door talks meant as preparatory to the annual G20 heads of state summit which is set for November.

  

  Blinken issued scathing criticism of “unprovoked and unjustifiable war of choice” at the meeting, but a defiant Lavrov said he wouldn’t “go running” after US representatives for the sake of talks. Blinken had vowed alongside French and German top diplomats to find “ways to address the global food security concerns that have resulted from Russia’s deliberate targeting of Ukrainian agriculture.”

  Lavrov addressed the complete lack of communication or diplomatic contacts between Moscow and Washington by asserting, “It was not us who abandoned contact, it was the United States.”

  Host country Indonesia’s message to both the US and Russia, and to the Ukrainians, was that negotiations must urgently be held to bring the conflict to a close.

  Friday’s meeting was the first time Lavrov and Blinken attended the same event. But given the very visible shunning of each other, it’s not looking like there will be bilateral dialogue over the war anytime soon, also as President Vladimir Putin has appeared to ratchet his rhetoric amid steady Russian military gains in the Donbas.

  LAVROV WALKS OUT OF G20 MEETING
  pic.twitter.com/jmFenIace1

  — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) July 8, 2022

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  Meanwhile, Putin on Friday in fresh remarks warned Russia’s energy industry to brace for an oil embargo from Europe. Putin reiterated familiar themes, including that Europe essentially ‘shot itself in the foot’ by years of obsessing over the green agenda.

  • PUTIN: TRANSITION TO GREEN ENERGY HAS RESULTED IN INCREASE IN ENERGY PRICES
  • PUTIN: RUSSIAN COMPANIES HAVE TO BE PREPARED FOR OIL EMBARGO FROM EUROPE
  • PUTIN: CONTINUED USE OF SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA COULD LEAD TO “CATASTROPHIC” CONSEQUENCES FOR GLOBAL MARKET

  As for Ukraine’s blocked wheat exports, Russia’s position has remained that port and vessel transit blockages are primarily due to Ukraine’s military mining their own ports, which Kiev says was necessary to thwart the major Russian force invasion.

  At the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting, of note is that China, India and Brazil were among those refusing to join the chorus of Western condemnation aimed at Moscow:

  “The nations in attendance [at the G20] were divided about how to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with major powers like India, China and Brazil unwilling to join in the Western-led sanctions against Moscow….”https://t.co/Cq6UmJCaVS

  — Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) July 8, 2022

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  “The nations in attendance [at the G20] were divided about how to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with major powers like India, China and Brazil unwilling to join in the Western-led sanctions against Moscow,” The New York Times underscored.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 20:00

• Gaslighting: The Psychology Of Shaping Another's Reality
  Gaslighting: The Psychology Of Shaping Another’s Reality

  Authored by Cynthia Chung via ‘Through A Glass Darkly’ Substack,

  “But I don’t want to go among mad people,” Alice remarked.
  “Oh, you can’t help that,” said the Cat: “we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.”
  “How do you know I’m mad?” said Alice.
  “You must be,” said the Cat, “or you wouldn’t have come here.”

  – Lewis Carroll’s “Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland”

  We are living in a world where the degree of disinformation and outright lying has reached such a state of affairs that, possibly for the first time ever, we see the majority of the western world starting to question their own and surrounding level of sanity. The increasing frenzied distrust in everything “authoritative” mixed with the desperate incredulity that “everybody couldn’t possibly be in on it!” is slowly rocking many back and forth into a tighter and tighter straight jacket. “Question everything” has become the new motto, but are we capable of answering those questions?

  Presently the answer is a resounding no.

  The social behaviourist sick joke of having made everyone obsessed with toilet paper of all things during the start of what was believed to be a time of crisis, is an example of how much control they have over that red button labelled “commence initiation of level 4 mass panic”.

  And can the people be blamed? After all, if we are being lied to, how can we possibly rally together and point the finger at the root of this tyranny, aren’t we at the point where it is everywhere?

  As Goebbels infamously stated,

  “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State [under fascism].”

  And here we find ourselves today, at the brink of fascism. However, we have to first agree to forfeit our civil rights as a collective before fascism can completely dominate. That is, the big lie can only succeed if the majority fails to call it out, for if the majority were to recognise it for what it is, it would truly hold no power.

  

  The Battle for Your Mind

  “Politicians, Priests, and psychiatrists often face the same problem: how to find the most rapid and permanent means of changing a man’s belief…The problem of the doctor and his nervously ill patient, and that of the religious leader who sets out to gain and hold new converts, has now become the problem of whole groups of nations, who wish not only to confirm certain political beliefs within their boundaries, but to proselytize the outside world.”

  – William Sargant “Battle of the Mind”

  It had been commonly thought in the past, and not without basis, that tyranny could only exist on the condition that the people were kept illiterate and ignorant of their oppression. To recognise that one was “oppressed” meant they must first have an idea of what was “freedom”, and if one were allowed the “privilege” to learn how to read, this discovery was inevitable.

  If education of the masses could turn the majority of a population literate, it was thought that the higher ideas, the sort of “dangerous ideas” that Mustapha Mond for instance expresses in “The Brave New World”, would quickly organise the masses and revolution against their “controllers” would be inevitable. In other words, knowledge is freedom, and you cannot enslave those who learn how to “think”.

  However, it hasn’t exactly played out that way has it?

  The greater majority of us are free to read whatever we wish to, in terms of the once “forbidden books”, such as those listed by The Index Librorum Prohibitorum[1]. We can read any of the writings that were banned in “The Brave New World”, notably the works of Shakespeare which were named as absolutely dangerous forms of “knowledge”.

  We are now very much free to “educate” ourselves on the very “ideas” that were recognised by tyrants of the past as the “antidote” to a life of slavery. And yet, today, the majority choose not to…

  It is recognised, albeit superficially, that who controls the past, controls the present and thereby the future. George Orwell’s book “1984”, hammers this as the essential feature that allows the Big Brother apparatus to maintain absolute control over fear, perception and loyalty to the Party cause, and yet despite its popularity, there still remains a lack of interest in actually informing oneself about the past.

  What does it matter anyway, if the past is controlled and rewritten to suit the present? As the Big Brother interrogator O’Brien states to Winston, “We, the Party, control all records, and we control all memories. Then we control the past, do we not? [And thus, are free to rewrite it as we choose…]”

  Of course, we are not in the same situation as Winston…we are much better off. We can study and learn about the “past” if we so desire, unfortunately, it is a choice that many take for granted.

  In fact, many are probably not fully aware that presently there is a battle waging for who will “control the past” in a manner that is closely resembling a form of “memory wipe”.

  *  *  *

  William Sargant was a British psychiatrist and, one could say, effectively the Father of “mind control” in the West, with connections to British Intelligence and the Tavistock Institute, which would influence the CIA and American military via the program MK Ultra. Sargant was also an advisor for Ewen Cameron’s LSD “blank slate” work at McGill University, funded by the CIA.

  Sargant accounts for his reason in studying and using forms of “mind control” on his patients, which were primarily British soldiers that were sent back from the battlefield during WWII with various forms of “psychosis”, as the only way to rehabilitate extreme forms of PTSD.

  The other reason, was because the Soviets had apparently become “experts” in the field, and out of a need for national security, the British would thus in turn have to become experts as well…as a matter of self-defence of course.

  The work of Ivan Pavlov, a Russian physiologist, had succeeded in producing some disturbingly interesting insights into four primary forms of nervous systems in dogs, that were combinations of inhibitory and excitatory temperaments; “strong excitatory”, “balanced”, “passive” and “calm imperturbable”. Pavlov found that depending on the category of nervous system temperament the dog had, this in turn would dictate the form of “conditioning” that would work best to “reprogram behaviour”. The relevance to “human conditioning” was not lost on anyone.

  It was feared in the West, that such techniques would not only be used against their soldiers to invoke free-flowing uninhibited confessions to the enemy but that these soldiers could be sent back to their home countries, as zombified assassins and spies that could be set off with a simple code word. At least, these were the thriller stories and movies that were pumped into the population. How horrific indeed! That the enemy could apparently enter what was thought the only sacred ground to be our own…our very “minds”!

  However, for those who were actually leading the field in mind control research, such as William Sargant, it was understood that this was not exactly how mind control worked.

  For one thing, the issue of “free will” was getting in the way.

  No matter the length or degree of electro-shock, insulin “therapy”, tranquilizer cocktails, induced comas, sleep deprivation, starvation etc induced, it was discovered that if the subject had a “strong conviction” and “strong belief” in something, this could not be simply erased, it could not be written over with any arbitrary thing. Rather, the subject would have to have the illusion that their “conditioning” was in fact a “choice”. This was an extremely challenging task, and long term conversions (months to years) were rare.

  However, Sargant saw an opening. It was understood that one could not create a new individual from scratch, however, with the right conditioning that was meant to lead to a physical breakdown using abnormal stress (effectively a reboot of the nervous system), one could increase the “suggestibility” markedly in their subjects.

  Sargant wrote in his “Battle of the Mind”: “Pavlov’s clinical descriptions of the ‘experimental neuroses’ which he could induce in dogs proved, in fact, to have a close correspondence with those war-neuroses which we were investigating at the time.”

  In addition, Sargant found that a falsely implanted memory could help induce abnormal stress leading to emotional exhaustion and physical breakdown to invoke “suggestibility”. That is, one didn’t even need to have a “real stress” but an “imagined stress” would work just as effectively.

  Sargant goes on to state in his book:

  “It is not surprising that the ordinary person, in general, is much more easily indoctrinated than the abnormal…A person is considered ‘ordinary’ or ‘normal’ by the community simply because he accepts most of its social standards and behavioural patterns; which means, in fact, that he is susceptible to suggestion and has been persuaded to go with the majority on most ordinary or extraordinary occasions.”

  Sargant then goes over the phenomenon of the London Blitz, which was an eight month period of heavy bombing of London during WWII. During this period, in order to cope and stay “sane”, people rapidly became accustomed to the idea that their neighbours could be and were buried alive in bombed houses around them. The thought was “If I can’t do anything about it what use is it that I trouble myself over it?” The best “coping” was thus found to be those who accepted the new “environment” and just focused on “surviving”, and did not try to resist it.

  Sargant remarks that it is this “adaptability” to a changing environment which is part of the “survival” instinct and is very strong in the “healthy” and “normal” individual who can learn to cope and thus continues to be “functional” despite an ever changing environment.

  It was thus our deeply programmed “survival instinct” that was found to be the key to the suggestibility of our minds. That the best “survivors” made for the best “brain-washing” in a sense.

  Sargant quotes Hecker’s work, who was studying the dancing mania phenomenon that occurred during the Black Death, where Hecker observed that heightened suggestibility had the capability to cause a person to “embrace with equal force, reason and folly, good and evil, diminish the praise of virtue as well as the criminality of vice.”

  And that such a state of mind was likened to the first efforts of the infant mind “this instinct of imitation when it exists in its highest degree, is also united a loss of all power over the will, which occurs as soon as the impression on the senses has become firmly established, producing a condition like that of small animals when they are fascinated by the look of a serpent.”

  I wonder if Sargant imagined himself the serpent…

  Sargant does finally admit: 

  “This does not mean that all persons can be genuinely indoctrinated by such means. Some will give only temporary submission to the demands made on them, and fight again when strength of body and mind returns. Others are saved by the supervention of madness. Or the will to resist may give way, but not the intellect itself.”

  But he comforts himself as a response to this stubborn resistance that “As mentioned in a previous context, the stake, the gallows, the firing squad, the prison, or the madhouse, are usually available for the failures.”

  How to Resist the Deconstruction of Your Mind

  “He whom the gods wish to destroy, they first of all drive mad.”

  – Henry Wadsworth Longfellow “The Masque of Pandora”

  For those who have not seen the 1944 psychological thriller “Gaslight” directed by George Cukor, I would highly recommend you do so since there is an invaluable lesson contained within, that is especially applicable to what I suspect many of us are experiencing nowadays.

  The story starts with a 14 year old Paula (played by Ingrid Bergman) who is being taken to Italy after her Aunt Alice Alquist, a famous opera singer and caretaker of Paula, is found murdered in her home in London. Paula is the one who found the body, and horror stricken is never her old self again. Her Aunt was the only family Paula had left in her life. The decision is made to send her away from London to Italy to continue her studies to become a world-renowned opera singer like her Aunt Alice.

  Years go by, Paula lives a very sheltered life and a heavy somberness is always present within her, she can never seem to feel any kind of happiness. During her singing studies she meets a mysterious man (her piano accompanist during her lessons) and falls deeply in love with him. However, she knows hardly anything about the man named Gregory.

  Paula agrees to marry Gregory after a two week romance and is quickly convinced to move back into her Aunt’s house in London that was left abandoned all these years. As soon as she enters the house, the haunting of the night of the murder revisits her and she is consumed with panic and fear. Gregory tries to calm her and talks about the house needing just a little bit of air and sun, and then Paula comes across a letter written to her Aunt from a Sergis Bauer which confirms that he was in contact with Alice just a few days before her murder. At this finding, Gregory becomes bizarrely agitated and grabs the letter from Paula. He quickly tries to justify his anger blaming the letter for upsetting her. Gregory then decides to lock all of her Aunt’s belongings in the attic, to apparently spare Paula any further anguish.

  It is at this point that Gregory starts to change his behaviour dramatically. Always under the pretext for “Paula’s sake”, everything that is considered “upsetting” to Paula must be removed from her presence. And thus quickly the house is turned into a form of prison. Paula is told it is for her best not to leave the house unaccompanied, not to have visitors and that self-isolation is the best remedy for her “anxieties” which are getting worst. Paula is never strictly forbidden at the beginning but rather is told that she should obey these restrictions for her own good.

  Before a walk, he gives as a gift a beautiful heirloom brooch that belonged to his mother. Because the pin needs replacing, he instructs Paula to keep it in her handbag, and then says rather out of context, “Don’t forget where you put it now Paula, I don’t want you losing it.” Paula remarks thinking the warning absurd, “Of course I won’t forget!” When they return from their walk, Gregory asks for the brooch, Paula searches in her handbag but it is not there.

  It continues on like this, with Gregory giving warnings and reminders, seemingly to help Paula with her “forgetfulness” and “anxieties”. Paula starts to question her own judgement and sanity as these events become more and more frequent. She has no one else to talk to but Gregory, who is the only witness to these apparent mishaps. It gets to a point where completely nonsensical behaviour is being attributed to Paula by Gregory. A painting is found missing on the wall one night. Gregory talks to Paula like she is a 5 year child and asks her to put it back. Paula insists she does not know who took it down. After her persistent passionate insistence that it was not her, she walks up the stairs almost like she were in a dream state and pulls the painting from behind a statue. Gregory asks why she lied, but Paula insists that she only thought to look there because that is where it was found the last two times this occurred.

  For weeks now, Paula thinks she has been seeing things, the gas lights of the house dimming for no reason, she also hears footsteps above her bedroom. No one else seems to take notice. Paula is also told by Gregory that he found out that her mother, who passed away when she was very young, had actually gone insane and died in an asylum.

  Despite Paula being reduced to a condition of an ongoing stupor, she decides one night to make a stand and regain control over her life. Paula is invited, by one of her Aunt Alice’s close friends Lady Dalroy, to attend a high society evening with musical performances. Recall that Paula’s life gravitated around music before her encounter with Gregory. Music was her life. Paula gets magnificently dressed up for the evening and on her way out tells Gregory that she is going to this event. Gregory tries to convince her that she is not well enough to attend such a social gathering, when Paula calmly insists that she is going and that this woman was a dear friend of her Aunt, Gregory answers that he refuses to accompany her (in those days that was a big deal). Paula accepts this and walks with a solid dignity, undeterred towards the horse carriage. In a very telling scene, Gregory is left momentarily by himself and panic stricken, his eyes bulging he snaps his cigar case shut and runs after Paula. He laughingly calls to her, “Paula, you did not think I was serious? I had no idea that this party meant so much to you. Wait, I will get ready.” As he is getting ready in front of the mirror, a devilish smirk appears.

  Paula and Gregory show up to Lady Dalroy’s house late, the pianist is in the middle of the 1st movement of Beethoven’s Piano Sonata #8 in C minor. They quickly are escorted to two empty seats. Paula is immediately immersed in the piece, and Gregory can see his control is slipping. After only a few minutes, he goes to look at his pocket watch but it is not in his pocket. He whispers into Paula’s ear, “My watch is missing”. Immediately, Paula looks like she is going to be sick. Gregory takes her handbag and Paula looks in horror as he pulls out his pocket watch, insinuating that Paula had put it there. She immediately starts losing control and has a very public emotional breakdown. Gregory takes her away, as he remarks to Lady Dalroy that this is why he didn’t want Paula coming in the first place.

  When they arrive home, Paula has by now completely succumbed to the thought that she is indeed completely insane. Gregory says that it would be best if they go away somewhere for an indefinite period of time. We later find out that Gregory is intending on committing her to an asylum. Paula agrees to leave London with Gregory and leaves her fate entirely in his hands.

  In the case of Paula it is clear. She has been suspecting that Gregory has something to do with her “situation” but he has very artfully created an environment where Paula herself doubts whether this is a matter of unfathomable villainy or whether she is indeed going mad.

  It is rather because she is not mad that she doubts herself, because there is seemingly no reason for why Gregory would put so much time and energy into making it look like she were mad, or at least so it first appears. But what if the purpose to her believing in her madness was simply a matter of who is in control?

  Paula almost succeeds in gaining the upper-hand in this power-struggle, the evening she decided to go out on her own no matter what Gregory insisted was in her best interest. If she would have held her ground at Lady Dalroy’s house and simply replied, “I have no idea why your stupid watch ended up in my handbag and I could care less. Now stop interrupting this performance, you are making a scene!” Gregory’s spell would have been broken as simple as that. If he were to complain to others about the situation, they would also respond, “Who cares man, why are you so obsessed about your damn watch?”

  We find ourselves today in a very similar situation to Paula. And the voice of Gregory is represented by the narrative of false news and the apocalyptic social behaviourist programming in our forms of entertainment. The things most people voluntarily subject themselves to on a daily, if not hourly, basis. Socially conditioning them, like a pack of salivating Pavlovian dogs, to think it is just a matter of time before the world ends and with a ring of their master’s bell…be at each other’s throats.

  Paula ends up being saved in the end by a man named Joseph Cotten (a detective), who took notice and quickly discerned that something was amiss. In the end Gregory is arrested. It is revealed that Gregory is in fact Sergis Bauer. That he killed Alice Alquist and that he has returned to the scene of the crime after all these years in search for the famous jewels of the opera singer. The jewels were in fact rather worthless from the standpoint that they were too famous to be sold, however, Gregory never intended on selling these jewels but rather had become obsessed with the desire to merely possess them.

  That is, it is Gregory who has been entirely mad all this time.

  A Gregory is absolutely dangerous. He would have been the end of Paula if nothing had intervened. However, the power that Gregory held was conditional to the degree that Paula allowed it to control her. Paula’s extreme deconstruction was thus entirely dependent on her choice to let the voice of Gregory in. That is, a Gregory is only dangerous if we allow ourselves to sleep walk into the nightmare he has constructed for us.

  “When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone,
  “it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”
  “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”
  “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master – – that’s all.”

  – Lewis Carroll’s “Through the Looking Glass”

  *  *  *

  Cynthia Chung is the President of the Rising Tide Foundation. Please consider supporting her work by making a donation and subscribing to her substack page.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 19:40

• Florida Man Charged In $1 Billion Fraud Scheme Of Counterfeit Cisco Devices
  Florida Man Charged In $1 Billion Fraud Scheme Of Counterfeit Cisco Devices

  A federal grand jury indicted a Florida man for trafficking over $1 billion in counterfeit Cisco networking equipment on Amazon and eBay stores between 2014 and 2022.

  According to the Department of Justice (DoJ), Onur Aksoy, aka “Ron Aksoy” and “Dave Durden,” 38, of Miami, operated at least 19 companies formed in New Jersey and Florida that sold counterfeit Cisco networking equipment through 15 Amazon storefronts and ten eBay storefronts and multiple other entities (collectively, the “Pro Network Entities”). 

  

  Attorney for the US Vikas Khanna, District of New Jersey, and Assistant Attorney General Kenneth A. Polite said Aksoy’s scheme worked by importing network devices from China and Hong Kong that were older models but modified to appear to be authentic versions of new, enhanced, and more expensive ones. 

  “The fraudulent and counterfeit products sold by the Pro Network Entities suffered from numerous performance, functionality, and safety problems. Often, they would simply fail or otherwise malfunction, causing significant damage to their users’ networks and operations – in some cases, costing users tens of thousands of dollars. Customers of Aksoy’s fraudulent and counterfeit devices included hospitals, schools, government agencies, and the military,” the DoJ wrote in a media release Friday morning. 

  Aksoy generated over $100 million in revenue after selling more than $1 billion in fake networking equipment. The government alleges the Florida man “received millions of dollars for his personal gain” from the scheme.

  DOJ has charged Aksoy with conspiracy to traffic counterfeit goods and mail and wire fraud, and both carry hefty sentencing times and fines. 

  This indictment sheds light on an entire underground economy devoted to scamming consumers on Amazon and eBay. Terrifyingly, the counterfeit Cisco networking equipment could’ve been installed in critical systems for companies and or even government agencies, making them more vulnerable to a ransomware attack or unexpected performance issues. 

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 19:20

• North Carolina Governor Signs Order To Continue Enabling Abortion Access
  North Carolina Governor Signs Order To Continue Enabling Abortion Access

  Authored by Mimi Nguyen Ly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Roy Cooper, the governor of North Carolina, signed an executive order on July 6 to continue enabling access to abortion in the state and shield people criminally charged with performing the procedure from being extradited to other states.

  

  The Democrat noted that the executive order is “not intended to change and does not change North Carolina law, but rather ensures that North Carolinians are afforded the protections and rights provided under North Carolina law.”

  His action comes after the U.S. Supreme Court on June 24 struck down Roe v. Wade in a case involving an abortion law in Mississippi. Roe v. Wade had largely enabled abortions up to 24 weeks of pregnancy across the United States for nearly 50 years. The overturning of Roe returns regulation of the procedure back to the states.

  Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, also signed an executive order similar to Cooper’s on July 6. Other Democratic governors, including for Maine and Rhode Island, on July 5 made similar moves to shield patients and providers of abortions from penalties. Over in Massachusetts, Gov. Charlie Baker signed a similar executive order on the day Roe v. Wade was overturned.

  In North Carolina, abortions are legal until fetal viability, which typically falls between 24 and 28 weeks of pregnancy. An abortion can be still performed after that in the case of a medical emergency, to protect the life or health of the mother. Abortions done for the purpose of sex selection are prohibited.

  People who opt to have an abortion must receive information designed to dissuade them from moving forward with the procedure and wait 72 hours before the abortion is provided. They also must undergo an ultrasound before the abortion.

  Cooper’s executive order (pdf) states that people who provide or receive “reproductive health care services that are legal” in North Carolina will not be imposed civil or criminal penalties by the Cabinet agencies or people under the governor’s office.

  “Reproductive health care services” is defined in the document as including abortions.

  

  Protect Against Extraditions

  Cooper’s order states that Cabinet agencies shall coordinate to “protect people or entities who are providing, assisting, seeking, or obtaining lawful reproductive health care services in North Carolina.” The order also directs the Department of Public Safety (DPS) to work with law enforcement to prohibit anyone from blocking access to a health care facility, per state law.

  Cabinet agencies are also barred from requiring a pregnant state employee to travel to a state “that has imposed restrictions on access to reproductive health care services if those restrictions do not include an exception for the health of the pregnant Cabinet Agency employee satisfactory to that employee.”

  It also says that the Cabinet agencies will not help with “any investigation or proceeding that seeks to impose civil or criminal liability or professional sanction upon a person or entity for” providing or receiving reproductive health care services that are legal in North Carolina.

  While North Carolina law states that it is the governor’s “duty” to arrest and deliver any person charged in another state “with treason, felony or other crime, who has fled from justice and is found in this state,” Cooper’s executive order says the governor can “exercise his discretion to decline requests” to extradite anyone charged with a criminal violation in another state over carrying out or receiving “reproductive health care services that are lawful in North Carolina.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 19:00

• DHS Agents Spied For China? Charged With Attempts To Suppress Critics Of CCP
  DHS Agents Spied For China? Charged With Attempts To Suppress Critics Of CCP

  For many it is not surprising to hear that the Chinese government is improving its intel and disinformation tactics within the US.  After all, the US contains perhaps the highest concentration of anti-communist and anti-socialist people in the world (living side by side with extreme leftists, of course).  The US has also been a relatively safe place for Chinese dissidents to voice their criticisms of the CCP, until recently.

  An active DHS agent and a Department of Human Services agent along with at least three other suspects now face official indictments for “acting as Chinese agents” while spying on dissidents and vocal critics of the CCP while living in the US.  Agents divulged personal information on activists including passport information on one man’s daughter.

  Though the case was first revealed by the Department Of Justice in May, the greater details have only been recently revealed.   

  The news arrives on the heels of a renewed push by the US government to have Tik Tok removed from Big Tech app stores because of data on American citizens being consistently accessed by the CCP.  The sophistication of China’s 4th Generation warfare measures is growing and their interest has been specifically in manipulating public opinion in the west.  

  

  The Chinese disinformation campaign to blame the US and Fort Detrick for the Covid-19 virus and the pandemic comes to mind.  Many Americans (and likely paid disinfo agents) were spreading the propaganda despite the fact that there was zero evidence of Fort Detrick as the source and extensive evidence that the area near the Wuhan Virology Lab was ground zero.  While gain of function research on covid viruses was indeed paid for by US backers including the NIH, the Wuhan lab continues to remain a place of interest in investigations on the cause of the outbreak.  

  The increase in Chinese information warfare suggests the CCP is seeking a global reach rather than merely remaining isolated from the western world, and one has to question if these actions are a precursor to some other agenda.  China’s interest in subsuming Taiwan has only grown stronger the past two years, and Joe Biden has suggested that if Taiwan is invaded the US would respond militarily.  Furthermore, an economic war is seething under the surface between China and the US, as China shows full trade support of Russia during their invasion of Ukraine.

  The Chinese have been experimenting extensively with “social credit systems” and the use of social media as a weapon to monitor and control its own citizenry.  This idea is obviously being tested in the US as well, but there appears to be a growing overlap between US government surveillance and the surveillance of foreign entities on American citizens.  

  Silencing dissent is the goal, and using American citizens as well as American government officials as a means to suppress activists makes perfect strategic sense.  The message is:  You are not safe from us, even in the “land of the free.”

  The disturbing trend may herald an era of digital hitmen who stalk critics of various governments and who seek to make their lives miserable.  It is not so much the reality of the threat as the idea of the threat – Maybe they will try to harm you, maybe they won’t, but the fear is always in the mind of the target.

  In the meantime, Americans need to take far more interest in the quality of the people being allowed into bureaucratic positions within our government.  Or, maybe we need to question the need for the bureaucracy to exist at all.  This latest story reminds us that Americans not only have to worry about corruption from within, but also corruption from without.          

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 18:40

• NPR Denigrates Slain Shinzo Abe As "Divisive Arch Conservative"
  NPR Denigrates Slain Shinzo Abe As “Divisive Arch Conservative”

  Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

  NPR reacted to the shocking assassination of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe by denigrating him as a “divisive arch conservative” and an “ultranationalist.”

  

  Abe was shot dead by 41-year-old gunman Yamagami Tetsuya while giving a speech at a campaign rally in the western city of Nara.

  Tetsuya used a homemade weapon to shoot Abe twice. The former president died after sustaining two deep neck wounds that damaged an artery.

  Government-funded NPR reacted to the news by referring to Abe as a “divisive arch conservative,” a description many found derogatory.

  Following the assassination of former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, @NPR called him a “divisive arch-conservative.” pic.twitter.com/cD2SXpyxri

  — Andy Ngô 🏳️‍🌈 (@MrAndyNgo) July 8, 2022

  After receiving some backlash on Twitter, NPR deleted their original tweet, before posting a new one that described the Japanese leader as an “ultranationalist.”

  NPR deleted its first tweet calling Shinzo Abe a “divisive arch conservative” and then posted this tweet calling him an “ultranationalist.” As if he were Tojo or Itagaki and not the four time elected leader of a modern democracy. May he rest in peace. https://t.co/TtxukySoAr

  — David Shafer (@DavidShafer) July 8, 2022

  If you are vaguely rightwing the press will just cycle through euphemisms for Nazi when you die

  — Auron MacIntyre (@AuronMacintyre) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Some people compared the media’s treatment of Abe to their glowing eulogy of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who the Washington Post described as an “austere religious scholar” despite him being the head of an international terrorist organization.

  🤔 pic.twitter.com/hxd6Jt5UlO

  — Auron MacIntyre (@AuronMacintyre) July 8, 2022

  As Chris Menahan notes, in addition to being a close ally of Donald Trump and strong on immigration and border security, Abe was also a critic of support for prolonging the war in Ukraine.

  Abe even dared criticize globalist darling President Zelensky, asserting that the Ukrainian leader should have vowed not to join NATO and given the Donbass region autonomy in order to de-escalate tensions with Russia.

  “Had Zelensky listened to Abe rather than Antony Blinken and Anne Applebaum, the war could have been avoided. Russia declared victory over the Donbass republic just days ago after over four months of devastating combat,” writes Menahan.

  “The current Prime Minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida, threw all of Abe’s overtures to Russia out the window after the war in Ukraine broke out and put Japan on war footing by embracing the US and EU’s anti-Russian sanctions and the freezing of Russian assets.”

  “Whereas Abe’s “Abenomics” showed moderate success in working to revive Japan’s economy after over a decade of stagflation, Kishida’s economics and support of Western sanctions against Russia has imploded Japan’s economy and triggered record inflation.”

  Authorities say they haven’t yet found any evidence that the gunman was motivated by his opposition to Abe’s political beliefs.

  This was the moment Shinzo Abe was assassinated. pic.twitter.com/vBpzy6LBE0

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 17:40

• Elon Musk Terminates Deal To Buy Twitter; Board To Pursue Legal Action
  Elon Musk Terminates Deal To Buy Twitter; Board To Pursue Legal Action

  Update (1800ET): Twitter’s Board of Directors said on Friday that they intend to close the transaction with Musk at $54.20 per share, and that they plan to pursue legal action to enforce the agreement, Twitter chairman of the board Bret Taylor tweeted following the news, adding that the board is “confident it will prevail in Delaware Court of Cancery.”

  The Twitter Board is committed to closing the transaction on the price and terms agreed upon with Mr. Musk and plans to pursue legal action to enforce the merger agreement. We are confident we will prevail in the Delaware Court of Chancery.

  — Bret Taylor (@btaylor) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Musk’s filing won’t be the end of this, but it does mark the conclusion of high-stakes suspense over whether he would complete the deal, after a public spat with the company over the number of bots on the platform.

  In recent weeks the company said that it had been sharing information with Musk in order to consummate the deal as laid out in the merger agreement, and reiterated their intention to close the transaction and enforce the agreement, the Wall Street Journal reports.

  There are no guarantees Mr. Musk will be able to walk away from the deal entirely, as Twitter is expected to challenge his legal arguments. Deal clashes often end in negotiated settlements that can include a price cut or one-time payments.

  Mr. Musk’s lawyer cited concerns over Twitter’s estimates about how many of its daily users are fake or spam accounts as an issue Mr. Musk raised as a concern about the deal almost three weeks after he signed it.

  Discovery should be fun…

  “Musk is examining the company’s recent financial performance and revised outlook, and is considering whether the company’s declining business prospects constitute a MAC”

  -> “By tweeting about the terrible TWTR deal I have destroyed TWTR, allowing me to walk away from the deal”

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Many were wondering how the Musk-Twitter takeover saga ends, or rather, who will be the first to sue.

  

  Late on Friday, Elon Musk decided to resolve the debate by effectively breaching his contract signed three months ago, and making a Delaware lawsuit inevitable, by announcing in a 13D filing that he is terminating his Twitter merger agreement, and claiming that “Twitter is in material breach of multiple provisions of that Agreement, appears to have made false and misleading representations upon which Mr. Musk relied when entering into the Merger Agreement, and is likely to suffer a Company Material Adverse Effect.”

  Of course, none of that will stick as Elon waived all rights to rework the deal when he signed the purchase agreement on April 25, and now it will be up to either i) a judge to impose the original deal, an outcome which will likely take place after several years of lawsuits or ii) to renegotiate the purchase price lower.

  Here is the letter sent from Musk’s law firm, Skadden Arps, to Twitter’s general counsel, Vijaya Gadde.

  Twitter, Inc.

  1355 Market Street, Suite 900

  San Francisco, CA 94103

  Attn: Vijaya Gadde, Chief Legal Officer

   

  Dear Ms. Gadde:

  We refer to (i) the Agreement and Plan of Merger by and among X Holdings I, Inc., X Holdings II, Inc. and Twitter, Inc. dated as of April 25, 2022 (the “Merger Agreement”) and (ii) our letter to you dated as of June 6, 2022 (the “June 6 Letter”). As further described below, Mr. Musk is terminating the Merger Agreement because Twitter is in material breach of multiple provisions of that Agreement, appears to have made false and misleading representations upon which Mr. Musk relied when entering into the Merger Agreement, and is likely to suffer a Company Material Adverse Effect (as that term is defined in the Merger Agreement).

  While Section 6.4 of the Merger Agreement requires Twitter to provide Mr. Musk and his advisors all data and information that Mr. Musk requests “for any reasonable business purpose related to the consummation of the transaction,” Twitter has not complied with its contractual obligations. For nearly two months, Mr. Musk has sought the data and information necessary to “make an independent assessment of the prevalence of fake or spam accounts on Twitter’s platform” (our letter to you dated May 25, 2022 (the “May 25 Letter”)). This information is fundamental to Twitter’s business and financial performance and is necessary to consummate the transactions contemplated by the Merger Agreement because it is needed to ensure Twitter’s satisfaction of the conditions to closing, to facilitate Mr. Musk’s financing and financial planning for the transaction, and to engage in transition planning for the business. Twitter has failed or refused to provide this information. Sometimes Twitter has ignored Mr. Musk’s requests, sometimes it has rejected them for reasons that appear to be unjustified, and sometimes it has claimed to comply while giving Mr. Musk incomplete or unusable information.

  Mr. Musk and his financial advisors at Morgan Stanley have been requesting critical information from Twitter as far back as May 9, 2022—and repeatedly since then—on the relationship between Twitter’s disclosed mDAU figures and the prevalence of false or spam accounts on the platform. If there were ever any doubt as to the nature of these information requests, the May 25 Letter made clear that Mr. Musk’s goal was to understand how many of Twitter’s claimed mDAUs were, in fact, fake or spam accounts. That letter noted that “Items 1.03 to 1.13 of the diligence request list contain high-priority requests for enterprise data and other information intended to enable Mr. Musk and his advisors to make an independent assessment of the prevalence of fake or spam accounts on Twitter’s platform…” The letter then provided Twitter with a detailed list of requests to this effect.

  Since then, Mr. Musk has provided numerous additional follow-up requests, all aimed at filling the gaps in the incomplete information that Twitter provided in response to his broad requests for information relating to Twitter’s reported mDAU counts and reported estimates of false and spam accounts.1 For example, in our letter to you dated June 29, 2022 (the “June 29 Letter”), we referenced Mr. Musk’s request in the May 25 Letter for “information that would allow him ‘to make an independent assessment of the prevalence of fake or spam accounts on Twitter’s platform.’” Because Twitter, by its own admission, provided only incomplete data that was not sufficient to perform such an independent assessment,2 the June 29 Letter “endeavored to be even more specific, and to reduce the burden of the [original] request,” by identifying a specific subset of high priority information, responsive to Mr. Musk’s prior requests, for Twitter to immediately make available.

  Notwithstanding these repeated requests over the past two months, Twitter has still failed to provide much of the data and information responsive to Mr. Musk’s repeated requests, including, but not limited to:

  1. Information related to Twitter’s process for auditing the inclusion of spam and fake accounts in mDAU. Twitter has still not provided much of the information specifically requested by Mr. Musk in Sections 1.01-1.03 of the May 19 diligence request list that is necessary for him to make an assessment of the prevalence of false or spam accounts on its website. As recently as the June 29 Letter, Mr. Musk reiterated this long-standing request for information related to Twitter’s sampling process for detecting fake accounts. The June 29 Letter identified specific data necessary to enable Mr. Musk to independently verify Twitter’s representations regarding the number of mDAU on its platform—including, but not limited to (1) daily global mDAU data since October 1, 2020; (2) information regarding the sampling population for mDAU, including whether the mDAU population used for auditing spam and false accounts is the same mDAU population used for quarterly reporting; (3) outputs of each step of the sampling process for each day during the weeks of January 30, 2022 and June 19, 2022; (4) documentation or other guidance provided to contractor agents used for auditing mDAU samples; (5) information regarding the user interface of Twitter’s ADAP tool and any internal tools used by the contractor agents; and (6) mDAU audit sampling information, including anonymized information identifying the contractor agents and Quality Analyst that reviewed each sampled account, the designation given by each contractor agent and Quality Analyst, and the current status of any accounts labelled “compromised.” A subsequent request along these lines should not have been necessary, as this information should have been provided in response to Mr. Musk’s original diligence request. Yet, to date, Twitter has not provided any of this information.
  2. Information related to Twitter’s process for identifying and suspending spam and fake accounts. In addition to information regarding Twitter’s mDAU audits, the June 29 Letter also reiterated requests for data specifically identified in Sections 1.04-1.05 of the May 19 diligence request list regarding Twitter’s methodology and performance data relating to identification and suspension of spam and false accounts, including, but not limited to, information regarding account suspensions, including information sufficient to identify daily numbers of account suspensions since October 2020 and numbers of account suspensions for each of Twitter’s internal reasons for suspension. In addition, during the June 30, 2022 call, Twitter’s representatives indicated for the first time that the workflow and processes for detecting spam and false accounts in the mDAU population is different and separate from the workflow and processes for identifying and suspending accounts in violation of Twitter’s policies. On that call, Twitter indicated that it would not be willing to provide information regarding the methodologies employed to identify and suspend such accounts.
  3. Daily measures of mDAU for the past eight (8) quarters. On June 17, 2022 (the “June 17 Letter”) Mr. Musk reiterated his request for “access to the sample set used and calculations performed, as well as any related reports or analysis, to support Twitter’s representation that fewer than 5% of its mDAUs are false or spam account.” To that end, Mr. Musk requested that Twitter provide “daily measures of mDAU for the previous eight quarters, and through the present.” This information is derivative of the information Mr. Musk first sought in Sections 1.01-1.03 of the May 19 diligence request list. Although Twitter has provided certain summary data regarding the mDAU calculations, Twitter has not provided the complete daily measures as requested.
  4. Board materials related to Twitter’s mDAU calculations. In the June 17 Letter, Mr. Musk requested a variety of board materials and communications related to Twitter’s mDAU metric, its calculation of the number of spam and false accounts, its disclosure of the mDAU metric, and the company’s disclosure of the number of spam accounts on the platform. Twitter has provided an incomplete data set in response to this request, and has not provided information sufficient to enable Mr. Musk to make an independent assessment of Twitter’s board and management’s understanding of its mDAU metric.
  5. Materials related to Twitter’s financial condition. Mr. Musk is entitled, under Section 6.4 of the Merger Agreement to “all information concerning the business … of the Company … for any reasonable business purpose related to the consummation of the transactions” and under Section 6.11 of the Merger Agreement, to information “reasonably requested” in connection with his efforts to secure the debt financing necessary to consummate the transaction. To that end, Mr. Musk requested on June 17 a variety of board materials, including a working, bottoms-up financial model for 2022, a budget for 2022, an updated draft plan or budget, and a working copy of Goldman Sachs’ valuation model underlying its fairness opinion. Twitter has provided only a pdf copy of Goldman Sachs’ final Board presentation.

  In short, Twitter has not provided information that Mr. Musk has requested for nearly two months notwithstanding his repeated, detailed clarifications intended to simplify Twitter’s identification, collection, and disclosure of the most relevant information sought in Mr. Musk’s original requests.

  While Twitter has provided some information, that information has come with strings attached, use limitations or other artificial formatting features, which has rendered some of the information minimally useful to Mr. Musk and his advisors. For example, when Twitter finally provided access to the eight developer “APIs” first explicitly requested by Mr. Musk in the May 25 Letter, those APIs contained a rate limit lower than what Twitter provides to its largest enterprise customers. Twitter only offered to provide Mr. Musk with the same level of access as some of its customers after we explained that throttling the rate limit prevented Mr. Musk and his advisors from performing the analysis that he wished to conduct in any reasonable period of time.

  Additionally, those APIs contained an artificial “cap” on the number of queries that Mr. Musk and his team can run regardless of the rate limit—an issue that initially prevented Mr. Musk and his advisors from completing an analysis of the data in any reasonable period of time. Mr. Musk raised this issue as soon as he became aware of it, in the first paragraph of the June 29 Letter: “we have just been informed by our data experts that Twitter has placed an artificial cap on the number of searches our experts can perform with this data, which is now preventing Mr. Musk and his team from doing their analysis.” That cap was not removed until July 6, after Mr. Musk demanded its removal for a second time.

  Based on the foregoing refusal to provide information that Mr. Musk has been requesting since May 9, 2022, Twitter is in breach of Sections 6.4 and 6.11 of the Merger Agreement.

  Despite public speculation on this point, Mr. Musk did not waive his right to review Twitter’s data and information simply because he chose not to seek this data and information before entering into the Merger Agreement. In fact, he negotiated access and information rights within the Merger Agreement precisely so that he could review data and information that is important to Twitter’s business before financing and completing the transaction.

  As Twitter has been on notice of its breach since at least June 6, 2022, any cure period afforded to Twitter under the Merger Agreement has now lapsed. Accordingly, Mr. Musk hereby exercises X Holdings I, Inc.’s right to terminate the Merger Agreement and abandon the transaction contemplated thereby, and this letter constitutes formal notice of X Holding I, Inc.’s termination of the Merger Agreement pursuant to Section 8.1(d)(i) thereof.

  In addition to the foregoing, Twitter is in breach of the Merger Agreement because the Merger Agreement appears to contain materially inaccurate representations. Specifically, in the Merger Agreement, Twitter represented that no documents that Twitter filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission since January 1, 2022, included any “untrue statement of a material fact” (Section 4.6(a)). Twitter has repeatedly made statements in such filings regarding the portion of its mDAUs that are false or spam, including statements that: “We have performed an internal review of a sample of accounts and estimate that the average of false or spam accounts during the first quarter of 2022 represented fewer than 5% of our mDAU during the quarter,” and “After we determine an account is spam, malicious automation, or fake, we stop counting it in our mDAU, or other related metrics.” Mr. Musk relied on this representation in the Merger Agreement (and Twitter’s numerous public statements regarding false and spam accounts in its publicly filed SEC documents) when agreeing to enter into the Merger Agreement. Mr. Musk has the right to seek rescission of the Merger Agreement in the event these material representations are determined to be false.

  Although Twitter has not yet provided complete information to Mr. Musk that would enable him to do a complete and comprehensive review of spam and fake accounts on Twitter’s platform, he has been able to partially and preliminarily analyze the accuracy of Twitter’s disclosure regarding its mDAU. While this analysis remains ongoing, all indications suggest that several of Twitter’s public disclosures regarding its mDAUs are either false or materially misleading. First, although Twitter has consistently represented in securities filings that “fewer than 5%” of its mDAU are false or spam accounts, based on the information provided by Twitter to date, it appears that Twitter is dramatically understating the proportion of spam and false accounts represented in its mDAU count. Preliminary analysis by Mr. Musk’s advisors of the information provided by Twitter to date causes Mr. Musk to strongly believe that the proportion of false and spam accounts included in the reported mDAU count is wildly higher than 5%. Second, Twitter’s disclosure that it ceases to count fake or spam users in its mDAU when it determines that those users are fake appears to be false. Instead, we understand, based on Twitter’s representations during a June 30, 2022 call with us, that Twitter includes accounts that have been suspended—and thus are known to be fake or spam—in its quarterly mDAU count even when it is aware that the suspended accounts were included in mDAU for that quarter. Last, Twitter has represented that it is “continually seeking to improve our ability to estimate the total number of spam accounts and eliminate them from the calculation of our mDAU…” But, Twitter’s process for calculating its mDAU, and the percentage of mDAU comprised of non-monetizable spam accounts, appears to be arbitrary and ad hoc. Disclosing that Twitter has a reasoned process for calculating mDAU when the opposite is true would be false and misleading.

  Twitter’s representation in the Merger Agreement regarding the accuracy of its SEC disclosures relating to false and spam accounts may have also caused, or is reasonably likely to result in, a Company Material Adverse Effect, which may form an additional basis for terminating the Merger Agreement. While Mr. Musk and his advisors continue to investigate the exact nature and extent of this event, Mr. Musk has reason to believe that the true number of false or spam accounts on Twitter’s platform is substantially higher than the amount of less than 5% represented by Twitter in its SEC filings. Twitter’s true mDAU count is a key component of the company’s business, given that approximately 90% of its revenue comes from advertisements. For this reason, to the extent that Twitter has underrepresented the number of false or spam accounts on its platform, that may constitute a Company Material Adverse Effect under Section 7.2(b)(i) of the Merger Agreement. Mr. Musk is also examining the company’s recent financial performance and revised outlook, and is considering whether the company’s declining business prospects and financial outlook constitute a Company Material Adverse Effect giving Mr. Musk a separate and distinct basis for terminating the Merger Agreement.

  Finally, Twitter also did not comply with its obligations under Section 6.1 of the Merger Agreement to seek and obtain consent before deviating from its obligation to conduct its business in the ordinary course and “preserve substantially intact the material components of its current business organization.” Twitter’s conduct in firing two key, high-ranking employees, its Revenue Product Lead and the General Manager of Consumer, as well as announcing on July 7 that it was laying off a third of its talent acquisition team, implicates the ordinary course provision. Twitter has also instituted a general hiring freeze which extends even to reconsideration of outstanding job offers. Moreover, three executives have resigned from Twitter since the Merger Agreement was signed: the Head of Data Science, the Vice President of Twitter Service, and a Vice President of Product Management for Health, Conversation, and Growth. The Company has not received Parent’s consent for changes in the conduct of its business, including for the specific changes listed above. The Company’s actions therefore constitute a material breach of Section 6.1 of the Merger Agreement.

  Accordingly, for all of these reasons, Mr. Musk hereby exercises X Holdings I, Inc.’s right to terminate the Merger Agreement and abandon the transaction contemplated thereby, and this letter constitutes formal notice of X Holding I, Inc.’s termination of the Merger Agreement pursuant to Section 8.1(d)(i) thereof.

  Sincerely,

  /s/ Mike Ringler
  Mike Ringler
  Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP

  *  *  *

  With all due respect to Elon and his law firm, all of the above is bunk, and all that matters is his signature on the original merger agreement when he waived all rights. And now it is up to the Twitter board to decide how to pursue next steps.

  TWTR stock dropped 7% after hours on an outcome that everyone should have priced in by now: the real fun begins now.

  

  Well at least Elon will buyback all those $TSLA shares he sold to help finance the deal, right?

  — Diogenes (@WallStCynic) July 8, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 17:30

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Ukraine Furious At Turkey For Allowing Passage Of Russian Ship Full Of "Stolen Grain"
  Ukraine Furious At Turkey For Allowing Passage Of Russian Ship Full Of “Stolen Grain”

  Ukraine has lashed out at Turkey and is currently demanding answers over a Russian-flagged cargo ship that was allowed to pass through straits controlled by the Turkish government as it sailed out of the Black Sea. Ukraine alleges the vessel was full of stolen Ukrainian grain, while Moscow has dismissed the reports as false.

  Ukraine has reportedly summoned Turkey’s ambassador, according to a Ukrainian foreign ministry statement Thursday. The cargo ship departed a Turkish port the day prior, with a maritime monitoring site observing that it’s since moved away from the Turkish coast almost a week after arriving.

  #UPDATE A disputed Russian-flagged cargo ship carrying grain Kyiv alleges was stolen from #Ukraine️ has moved away from the Turkish coast nearly a week after its arrival, a marine traffic website has showed. pic.twitter.com/WUMmjCdw23

  — AFP News Agency (@AFP) July 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The statement out of Kiev said it was “unacceptable” that Turkish authorities allowed the vessel to leave. Late Wednesday it reportedly left the country’s northwestern port of Karasu.

  “We regret that Russia’s ship Zhibek Zholy, which was full of stolen Ukrainian grain, was allowed to leave Karasu port, despite criminal evidence presented to the Turkish authorities,” foreign ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko announced.

  Days ago Ukrainian officials issued formal request for their Turkish counterparts to seize the ship and arrest its operators. There were initial reports that it was in detention, but Ukrainian leaders were later outraged upon learning of its departure with a reported thousands of tonnes of Ukrainian grain.

  In departing Ukraine’s coast, the ship was among the first to set sail from Berdyansk port, which has been firmly under Russian military control: 

  Moscow-backed news channels celebrated what they called the first voyage of a commercial ship from the “liberated” port. While Zhibek Zholy may be the first to sail from Berdyansk since the war began, reports suggest other Russian ships have left other Ukrainian ports before, also carrying contested grain.

  Amid the emerging global food crisis given Ukraine’s grain exports have been blocked for months, something which Russia has blamed on the Ukrainians mining their ports, Kiev has consistently charged the Russians with a major and ongoing grain theft.

  We regret that Russia’s ship Zhibek Zholy which was full of stolen Ukrainian grain, was allowed to leave Karasu port despite criminal evidence presented to the Turkish authorities. Türkiye’s Ambassador in Kyiv will be invited to @MFA_Ukraine to clarify this unacceptable situation

  — Oleg Nikolenko (@OlegNikolenko_) July 7, 2022

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  In the meantime, some NATO countries are in talks to cobble together an international naval coalition to provide safe passage for Ukraine’s food exports, as Responsible Statecraft reviews:

  More recently, as the danger of a global food crisis made worse by the loss of grain exports from Ukraine and Russia has increased, new calls have emerged for the United States and allies to use naval power to ensure that Ukrainian grain can safely transit the Black Sea. 

  Similar to demands for a no-fly zone, these ideas have been wrapped in humanitarian language. But in reality, they amount to a call for highly risky U.S.-led military action.

  Versions of the proposal have been put forward by Lithuania’s foreign minister, retired U.S. military leaders including admiral James Stavridis, general Wesley Clark, and general Jack Keane, as well as Democratic representative Elissa Slotkin and the editorial boards of the Boston Globe and Wall Street Journal.

  While these proposals vary in detail, all invoke the rhetoric of humanitarian intervention to justify and legitimize the action. The Wall Street Journal calls for a U.S.-led naval escort to be “planned and pitched as a humanitarian operation.” Stavridis referred to his plan as a “humanitarian grain mission” while Slotkin simply called for a “humanitarian escort.” The Boston Globe called its proposal a “human-rights mission” while the Lithuanian foreign minister deemed it a “non-military humanitarian mission.”

  The Russian-flagged vessels path over the past week, via Al Jazeera:

  

  These calls for such intervention on the Black Sea are likely only to grow as the global food supply crisis gets more acute, threatening millions of people on the brink of hunger in regions that have long been heavily reliant on grain from war-ravaged Ukraine, especially in the Middle East and Africa.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 02:45

• Greta Fumes As EU Declares Nuclear & NatGas 'Green'
  Greta Fumes As EU Declares Nuclear & NatGas ‘Green’

  Members of European Parliament (MEPs) voted on July 6 not to reject adding nuclear and natural gas activities to the European Union taxonomy for sustainable investments, paving the way for the EU to include such projects in its so-called “green” investments.

  

  As OilPrice.com’s Tsvetana reports, in a vote on Wednesday, most members of the European Parliament did not support a motion to block the Commission’s proposal. A total of 278 MEPs voted in favor of the resolution to block the proposal, 328 voted against, and 33 abstained. The vote failed to reach an absolute majority of 353 MEPs which was needed for Parliament to veto the Commission’s proposal.

  If neither Parliament nor Council object to the proposal by July 11, 2022, the act will enter into force and apply as of January 1, 2023, the European Parliament said. 

  The EU could reject the “green” status for gas and nuclear if 20 out of the EU’s 27 member states reject it, which is highly unlikely, analysts say.

  The European Commission updated earlier this year its Taxonomy Complementary Climate Delegated Act on climate change mitigation and adaptation covering certain gas and nuclear activities. Under the new taxonomy, some gas projects, including several pipelines, were given a “sustainable investment” status. Gas projects are “transitional” if they contribute to the transition from coal to renewables, the EU says.  

  The bloc is accelerating its efforts to reduce dependence on Russian pipeline gas after Russia invaded Ukraine, cut off the gas supply to several EU members that refused to pay in rubles, and most recently, slashed supply to major customers, including Germany and Italy.

  The “green status” for gas and nuclear has stirred a lot of controversy in EU institutions and among officials.

  Applause breaks out in the European Parliament for protesters wearing shirts spelling out “BETRAYAL” after the parliament blocked an objection to labeling some gas and nuclear energy projects as “green” energy. pic.twitter.com/5uD73QFBC7

  — The Recount (@therecount) July 6, 2022

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  Some have argued supporting gas is now of critical importance with an unreliable major supplier, Russia. Others have said that the war in Ukraine and the Russian behavior in energy supply should be a wake-up call for the EU and the world to look to renewables and ditch dependence on fossil fuels.

  And Greta is mad…

  Tomorrow the European Parliament will decide whether fossil gas and nuclear will be considered “sustainable” in the EU taxonomy. But no amount of lobbyism and greenwashing will ever make it “green”.
  We desperately need real renewable energy, not false solutions. #NotMyTaxonomy

  — Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) July 5, 2022

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  As Brad Palumbo writes at The Washington Examiner, Thunberg is not the only supposed climate activist who has shunned nuclear power.

  

  Here in the United States, far-left Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) took major flack because her so-called “Green New Deal” did not mention the word “nuclear.” Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) actually campaigned for president in 2020 on the stance that we should not build new nuclear plants and should “phase out” nuclear energy.

  So Thunberg’s viral stance is just the latest in a long history of the green Left opposing nuclear power. But this blind spot is utterly unsupported by the actual evidence and reveals that these activists’ true priority is not protecting the climate from carbon emissions. If that was really their priority, they’d be pushing nuclear power like crazy.

  According to the U.S. Department of Energy , nuclear energy is a “zero emissions clean energy source” that also “keeps the air clean by removing thousands of tons of harmful air pollutants each year that contribute to acid rain, smog, lung cancer and cardiovascular disease.”

  Indeed, as of 2017, nuclear energy produced 57% of America’s clean energy, per DOE.

  Of course, left-wing activists cite the waste produced by nuclear power generation as what makes it supposed not really “green.” But this isn’t a legitimate argument. As the DOE explains, “All of the used nuclear fuel produced by the U.S. nuclear energy industry over the last 60 years could fit on a football field at a depth of less than 10 yards.”

  Surely, we can manage to store that amount of waste safely, and it’s undoubtedly worth the trade-offs in terms of the enormous reduction in other pollutants. Indeed, DOE says that nuclear energy in the U.S. since 1995 has had the carbon dioxide emissions prevention equivalent of taking 3 billion cars off the road!

  So why do so many left-wing activists still oppose nuclear energy and support the status quo, under which many countries’ governments make nuclear energy development incredibly difficult?

  Some are undoubtedly well-intentioned and just misinformed about the facts regarding nuclear. Others may remain understandably but unduly scared by the word “nuclear” and one-off tragedies such as the Fukushima, Japan, meltdown , which happened using long-outdated nuclear technology.

  But the truth is that many left-wing activists, such as Ocasio-Cortez, oppose nuclear energy because their real climate agenda is a backdoor for radical socialist economic overhaul and the destruction of capitalism. You don’t have to take my word for it. Ocasio-Cortez’s former chief of staff openly said that the “Green New Deal” actually “wasn’t originally a climate thing at all,” adding, “We really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing.”

  So, the real antipathy against nuclear stems from the fact that nuclear energy is an efficient, zero-emissions, safe form of energy production that can address climate change through deregulation rather than a sweeping socialist overhaul of the economy.

  Tyler Durden
  Fri, 07/08/2022 – 02:00

• Dr. Robert Malone Testifies At Texas Senate Committee: 'Regulatory Practices Had Been Discarded'
  Dr. Robert Malone Testifies At Texas Senate Committee: ‘Regulatory Practices Had Been Discarded’

  Authored by Enrico Trigoso via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Vaccinologist and key contributor to mRNA technology Robert Malone testified to the Texas Senate committee on Health & Human Services on June 28, highlighting some administrative actions during the pandemic that he thinks were incorrectly handled and that should be taken into consideration for the future.

  

  Malone is also a specialist in clinical research, medical affairs, regulatory affairs, project management proposal management, vaccines, and biodefense.

  He said that prior to the Covid-19 outbreak, the standard procedure would have been for the CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention), a federal agency, to give advice to state public health authorities in order to regulate medical practices.

  “Up until the present, that’s always been acknowledged. The role of the federal government is in consultation and support and advice. This approach has not been implemented during the COVID crisis … during SARS-Cov2 COVID-19 outbreak, new policies and practices have been implemented,” Malone testified in the hearing.

  Malone has been involved with previous outbreak responses, including AIDS, anthrax, smallpox, and has worked on the smallpox vaccine, influenza vaccine, Ebola, Zika, and now SARS-Cov2.

  Regulatory Practices ‘Discarded’

  “The NIH and particularly NIAID have developed and propagated treatment protocols throughout the United States.

  “Development of vaccine products have been accelerated and historic non-clinical, clinical development, and regulatory practices had been discarded in a quest for speed under specific pressure from the executive branch in the prior administration. Development of repurposed drugs and treatment strategies have paradoxically been aggressively blocked or inhibited by both NIH and FDA, apparently due to requirements in the federal emergency use authorization statute language, requiring lack of available alternatives as a predicate, to granting emergency use authorization to a new product, including a vaccine product,” Malone said.

  The mRNA pioneer believes that due to poor management, public health officials were not able to access up-to-date information about the safety of the vaccines.

  “This has compromised the informed consent process. CDC has actively promoted and marketed vaccination with an unlicensed emergency use authorized product. With over $1 billion in U.S. federal funding expended to both market the products and to censor those who’ve raised concerns regarding vaccine safety and effectiveness. This is not an opinion. It is well documented through Freedom of Information Act document disclosure.” Malone said.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 23:40

• Maryland Governor Loosens Concealed Carry Law, Spurs Demand For Gun Permits 
  Maryland Governor Loosens Concealed Carry Law, Spurs Demand For Gun Permits 

  Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan relaxed the state’s rules for obtaining a concealed handgun permit following the U.S. Supreme Court decision. The action spurred a surge in Marylanders seeking concealed carry classes — with some gun stores that offer firearms training saying classes are booked for the rest of the year. 

  On Tuesday, Hogan directed the Maryland State Police to suspend the “substantial reason” provision in the state rules for receiving a concealed-carry permit. Applicants must only provide a copy of their driver’s license, background check, fingerprints, and firearms training certificate for approval. 

  

  The action comes two weeks after the New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen ruling, where the Supreme Court’s 6-to-3 conservative majority found that New York’s concealed-carry law required applicants to show “proper cause” for obtaining a handgun was in violation of the Second Amendment. 

  Hogan’s statement reads:

  “Over the course of my administration, I have consistently supported the right of law-abiding citizens to own and carry firearms, while enacting responsible and common-sense measures to keep guns out of the hands of criminals and the mentally ill.

  “Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a provision in New York law pertaining to handgun permitting that is virtually indistinguishable from Maryland law. In light of the ruling and to ensure compliance with the Constitution, I am directing the Maryland State Police to immediately suspend utilization of the ‘good and substantial reason’ standard when reviewing applications for wear and carry permits. It would be unconstitutional to continue enforcing this provision in state law. There is no impact on other permitting requirements and protocols.

  “Today’s action is in line with actions taken in other states in response to the recent ruling.”

  The governor’s action has spurred huge demand for concealed carry classes. Gun stores across the Baltimore metro area tell us “the flood gates have opened,” as law-abiding citizens who couldn’t obtain a permit under “proper cause” now can. 

  One gun store in Towson, Maryland, said classes are booked until the end of the year, while another in Fredrick, Maryland, said the same thing. 

  Besides New York and Maryland, the Supreme Court’s decision has flipped New Jersey. California, Hawaii, and Rhode Island could be next. 

  Concealed carry classes in states that just flipped are selling like hotcakes — it might be hard to find a class well into 2023 because the capacity for firearms training courses is limited.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 23:20

• Former Japanese PM Shinzo Feared Dead After Assassination Attempt
  Former Japanese PM Shinzo Feared Dead After Assassination Attempt

  Update (2317ET): Accroding to Kyodo news, former Japanese Prime Minister Abe is reportedly showing no signs of life and has suffered from cardiac arrest after being taken to the hospital, according to police and fire officials.

  

  

  🇯🇵 High quality footage of the former Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, being shot at from behind with an improvised double barreled shotgun. pic.twitter.com/kwoL1lf57r

  — 🇺🇸mai🌟ke🇨🇦 (@maike809588) July 8, 2022

  

  BREAKING! Nara, Japan: Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been shot during speech.
  Suspect has been arrested. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been rushed to hospital after being possibly shot in the chest. pic.twitter.com/VPDi4JIVVD

  — 🇺🇸mai🌟ke🇨🇦 (@maike809588) July 8, 2022

  Here are stills of the attacker being apprehended. pic.twitter.com/MFvunBC1qc

  — Nick Kapur (@nick_kapur) July 8, 2022

  

  pic.twitter.com/o1RrJBDXUe

  — 🇺🇸mai🌟ke🇨🇦 (@maike809588) July 8, 2022

  The 67-year-old was shot from approximately 3 meters (10 feet) away. The suspect, 41-year-old Yamagami Tatsuya, reportedly stayed on the scene until his arrest on an attempted murder charge.

  

  Nikkei 225 futures erased gains following news of Abe’s collapse, while the yen gained with US Treasuries.

  This is horrendously shocking news about former Japan PM Shinzo Abe. He was an outspoken leader for freedom and opposed the Regime.

  — Jenna Ellis (@JennaEllisEsq) July 8, 2022

  Shinzo Abe has been one of the fiercest anti-communists in all of Asia and was never afraid to stand up to the CCP. He dedicated his life to defending his country

  — Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) July 8, 2022

  *  *  *

  Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has reportedly been shot in the chest during a campaign speech at around 11:30 a.m. in the city of Nara, near Kyoto. According to NHK what sounded like ‘consecutive bangs’ were heard, after which Abe could be seen bleeding – with some reports saying from the neck. It appears he was shot in the left chest area from behind.

  The local fire department reports that Abe is in cardiac arrest, while Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members reported him to be unconscious.

  

  BREAKING: Former Prime Minister Abe collapses in Nara, apparent gun shots heard. Taken away by ambulance after being possibly shot in the chest, NHK reports. pic.twitter.com/sBnz3v5oah

  — Kurumi Mori (@rumireports) July 8, 2022

  Wow l’ancien premier ministre Shinzo Abe se serait fait tiré dessus lors d’un meeting à Nara.pic.twitter.com/KxFZApaF2B

  — ⛩ Ryo Saeba ⛩ (@Ryo_Saeba_3) July 8, 2022

  A suspect, believed to be a young or middle-aged man, was apprehended at the scene along with a shotgun, according to NHK.

  Futures took an immediate hit on the news.

  

   

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 22:51

• China Dominates The Antibiotics Market
  China Dominates The Antibiotics Market

  Global exports of antibiotics originate predominantly from China – as Statista’s Martin Armstrong shows in the infographic below based on data from the International Trade Center (ITC).

  China currently accounts for 42.4 percent of global antibiotic exports by value. Italy, India and Switzerland follow far behind.

  For years, experts have been warning of the EU’s dependence on antibiotic supplies from abroad, especially China and India.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  This dependence is not only limited to antibiotics, but affects – also for many years – a wide range of pharmaceutical products, including cortisone, for example.

  In addition, the world is facing another, increasingly significant problem: More and more bacteria are developing resistance to common antibiotics.

  As a result, there is now a pressing need for drugs that are specifically effective against resistant germs. Most of the antibiotic classes introduced in the 21st century do just that. However, research into these active substances is often not profitable and risky for the industry; because drugs that specifically act against resistant germs are not used across the board, but only as so-called “second-line” or “last-line” antibiotics (reserve antibiotics) – as a last resort when the established drugs are no longer effective.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 22:40

• Top House Republican Presses Yellen For Records On Hunter Biden’s Foreign Business Dealings
  Top House Republican Presses Yellen For Records On Hunter Biden’s Foreign Business Dealings

  Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A top House Republican is demanding Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen release records on Hunter Biden’s foreign business activities, alleging that the biden administration’s reluctance to release such details suggest an effort to shield the Biden family from scrutiny.

  

  In a letter on July 6, Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), a ranking member on the House Committee on Oversight and Reform, asked Yellen to provide reports of what he thought was “suspicious activity” on the part of the younger Biden, his business associates, and other Biden family members.

  Hunter, the second son of President Joe Biden, is currently under federal investigation for potential tax violations. Scrutiny has been growing over his overseas business dealings in countries such as Ukraine, Russia, and China, particularly during the period while Biden was vice president in the Obama administration.

  Under the Bank Secrecy Act, U.S. banks flag cash transactions exceeding $10,000 a day and automatically generate suspicious activity reports, also called SARs, in a bid to help U.S. government agencies prevent money laundering.

  Comer previously wrote to Yellen in late May requesting the SAR reports for Hunter Biden but received no answer. He accused the Biden administration of restricting Congress’s access to SARs, citing a recent Treasury Department rule that allows Congressional staff to review such materials in a Treasury reading room. They are barred from making copies of the documents.

  “Committee Republicans are investigating whether this change in longstanding policy is motivated by efforts to shield Hunter Biden and potentially President Biden from scrutiny,” the letter read.

  Refusing Release

  “Despite Treasury’s assertion in the press that it ‘provides SARs to Congress in a manner that enables robust oversight,’ Treasury is refusing to release SARs connected with Hunter Biden or his family and associates—including the President,” Comer wrote in the letter.

  He noted that in a phone call on June 13, five days after the June 8 deadline for Comer’s request, Treasury officials told Republican staff on the House Oversight Committee that “they will not provide SARs to Committee Republicans unless Democrats join the request.”

  That marked a contrast with the Treasury Department statement shortly after Comer’s initial request.

  “Treasury has made SARs available for every request we’ve received, regardless of party, and will continue to do so,” the department told Wall Street Journal at the time.

  “It is troubling that the Biden Administration is willing to provide a false story to the media to create the appearance of transparency, while continuing to thwart congressional oversight,” Comer said. “Treasury’s actions call for investigation and raise new questions about the degree to which the Biden Administration is using the federal government to provide cover for the Biden family and its associates.

  

  “The American people deserve to know whether the President’s connections to his son’s business deals occurred at the expense of the United States’ interests and whether they represent a national security threat.”

  Comer’s inquiry to over a dozen banks in May, including the Bank of China, Cathay Bank, and JP Morgan Chase, also didn’t receive any responses.

  The banks said they cannot provide the requested materials without a subpoena, Comer’s office told The Epoch Times.

  Biden’s Voicemail

  Hunter in 2017 and 2018 received millions in payments from Chinese state-linked companies, according to recently released bank records. Emails from what is alleged to be his abandoned laptop also show him trying to broker a $120 million oil agreement between a Chinese state-owned oil company and Kazakhstan’s prime minister at the time.

  Biden has in public repeatedly denied having discussed with Hunter about the latter’s foreign business transactions. But a leaked voicemail, dating back to December 2018 and recovered from the laptop that Hunter allegedly left in a Delaware repair shop, contradicts his claims.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 22:20

• June Payrolls Preview: Big Data Hints At A Huge Negative Surprise
  June Payrolls Preview: Big Data Hints At A Huge Negative Surprise

  In previewing tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report, Goldman trader Matthew Fleury writes that “the market wants not too hot not too cold to keep this bid. Strong enough to say the world isn’t going into recession. Not too strong to send US10s back to 3.25% on the day. Not too cold to highlight US data deteriorating while inflation will stay high and fed hiking 75bps into dramatic slowdown. Something like 175k to 250k.”

  It’s probably not a surprise then that with markets hoping for a print just north of 200K that consensus is also in the same ballpark (median consensus is at 268K). But while the rate of payrolls growth is expected to cool again in June (from 390K in May), once again traders will be paying close attention to the wage metrics within the data to help shape expectations about whether the Fed will raise rates by either a 50bps or a 75bps increment at the July FOMC meeting.

  As Newsquawk writes in its NFP preview, the jobs report is one part of the equation in forming these expectations, the other being the June CPI Data due next week. The data releases could also determine the course for rate hikes through the rest of this year; a recent dovish repricing of the trajectory of Fed rate hikes (on the back of recession fears) has been unwinding, and money markets now assign an approximately 50% chance rates will rise to 3.25-3.50% by year-end. Another note of caution: high-frequency data on the labor market generally indicate weakness in June employment, with all three indicators consistent with an outright decline in seasonally-adjusted payrolls (see below).

  Here is what Wall Street expects:

  • Analysts expect the rate of job additions will continue to cool in June, with the consensus looking for 268k payrolls to be added; that would be lower than May’s 390k, which is lower than recent averages too (3-month average 408k, 6-month average 505k, 12-month average 545k).
  • Analysts see the jobless rate holding at 3.6% in June; the Fed’s recently updated economic projections see the unemployment rate ending this year at 3.7%, rising to 3.9% next year, and then 4.1% in 2024.
  • Fed Chair Powell in June said that unemployment at 4.1% would be a successful outcome and is still a historically low level, suggesting the Fed will be happy to allow unemployment to rise to this level as the Fed attempts to return inflation to target.
  • Goldman is uncharacteristically below consensus, and estimates nonfarm payrolls rose by 250k in June, a sharp slowdown from the +408k three-month average. The bank also estimates private payrolls rose 200k in June (vs. consensus +235k), and notes the possibility that the June seasonal factors are overfitting to the reopening-related job surges in June 2020 and June 2021. This higher seasonal hurdle represents a headwind of roughly 200k, in Goldman’s view, other things equal

  Average Hourly Earnings: As has been the case for many months now, traders will be carefully watching measures of wage growth for signs of how the ‘second round’ effects are faring. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, matching the May rate; the annual measure is seen cooling to +5% Y/Y from 5.2% in May. The FOMC’s June meeting minutes said that some contacts had reported that, because of previous wage hikes, hiring and retention had improved and pressure for additional wage increases appeared to be receding, while Powell at the June FOMC said we are not seeing a wage-price spiral but he did note wage growth is elevated.

  Arguing for a weaker-than-expected report:

  • Evolution of the seasonal factors. The June seasonal factors have evolved unfavorably in recent years, with a month-over-month hurdle of 974k in June 2021 and 939k in June 2020 compared to the 821k hurdle in June 2016 and 733k in June 2012 (these were also 5-week June payroll months). Goldman cautions of the possibility that the June seasonal factors are overfitting to the reopening-related job surges in June 2020 and June 2021. This higher seasonal hurdle represents a headwind of roughly 200k.

  

  • Employer surveys. The employment components of business surveys generally decreased in June. The Goldman services survey employment tracker decreased by 0.2pt to 54.5 and its manufacturing survey employment tracker decreased by 0.3pt to 55.8.
  • Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas increased 74.0% month-over-month in June, after decreasing 32.0% in May. The June increases were particularly pronounced in the real estate, autos, and media industries.
  • Big Data. High-frequency data on the labor market generally indicate weakness in June employment, with all three indicators consistent with an outright decline in seasonally-adjusted payrolls, averaging well over 1 million jobs lost in June! However, we note that these signals significantly understated BLS payroll growth in both April and May, which is why economists tend to place less weight on them for this report. Of course, one day they will be right…

  

  • Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims increased from very low levels during the June payroll month, averaging 222k per week vs. 200k in May. Continuing claims in regular state programs decreased 19k from survey week to survey week before rebounding after the end of the payroll month.

  Arguing for a stronger-than-expected report:

  • Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get—edged up by 0.2pt to +39.7. JOLTS job openings decreased by 427k in May to 11.3mn. Despite the sequential weakness, the level of labor demand remains very high, which likely supported continued job growth in the leisure and healthcare sectors.
  • Labor supply constraints. When the labor market is tight, job growth tends to slow during the spring hiring season in March/April/May. It then tends to pick back up in June with the arrival of the summer youth labor force. For example, nonfarm payrolls rose 224k in June 2019 after just +75k in May (first-reported basis).

  

  Policy Implications: The Federal Reserve’s recently updated economic forecasts acknowledge that aggressive rate hikes ahead will weigh on growth and the labor market. But officials have talked up the strength of the economy, and seem confident in their ability to tighten policy without causing significant damage to the labor market. Officials have noted that the jobs market is strong, demand for labor continues to outstrip supply, unemployment is near a 50-year low while job vacancies are at historical highs, and there is elevated nominal wage growth. Officials have recently been suggesting that the debate in July will be between 50bps and 75bps, and any upside surprise in the wages data will embolden calls for the Fed to raise rates by 75bps again on July 27th. Currently, money markets are assigning an approximately 85% chance that rates will be lifted by the larger increment, but if this metric was to post a downside surprise, it could help pricing tilt back into the 50bps bucket. It is also worth keeping in mind that Fed officials decided to go with a larger-than-guided 75bps rate hike in June after the hotter-than-expected May CPI data; accordingly, next Wednesday’s CPI Report for June will also play an instrumental role in setting policy expectations for the July meeting.

  Some have suggested that the jobs data and inflation report might end up having more of an impact on pricing beyond the July meeting. Amid the recent growth fears, market pricing for rates to end this year between 3.25-3.50% diminished to the point that 3.00-3.25% was a more likely outcome; however, in recent sessions, we have seen the implied probability of a move to 3.25-3.50% rise and is now about 50/50.

  Finally, those looking at the recent past for hints of what’s to come, keep in mind that 7 of the last 8 payrolls days have ended lower 6 hours after the print (whether it was a beat or a miss).

  

  Which probably means we are overdue for a reversal…

   

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 22:08

• Gun-Makers Go South
  Gun-Makers Go South

  Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Of all the businesses that are moving out of blue states, those in the gun industry lead the pack.

  

  Storied firearms manufacturers, some of them having operated in northern states for centuries, are now heading South. Remington, founded in 1816 and America’s oldest gun maker, announced in November it was moving its headquarters from New York to Georgia.

  In announcing the move, which will include a $100 million investment in a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility and create 856 new jobs, Remington CEO Ken D’Arcy said, “the decision to locate in Georgia is very simple. The state of Georgia is not only a business-friendly state, it’s a firearms-friendly state.”

  Also exiting New York is Dark Storm Industries, a gun manufacturer and retailer. They will be moving to Titusville, Florida, where they have begun construction on a new manufacturing plant, bringing up to 75 jobs to Florida.

  “If you’re in the gun industry and you have the opportunity to move to Florida, you’re figuring it out, that’s where you want to be,” Dark Star Communications Manager Kevin Elder told The Epoch Times. When the company asked its employees if they would consider moving south, they didn’t hesitate, Elder said, “they were ready to go.”

  Dark Star was founded to make firearms that are compliant with New York’s strict regulations, “but they just keep adding on more and more restrictions and more hoops to jump through,” Elder said. “Our clientele is very friendly, and our community, and we try to give back as much as we can. We do a lot of charity work and local law enforcement loves us. But as far as the state itself, they don’t want that kind of stuff up here.”

  Elder said that Dark Star’s problems in New York went beyond state regulations to also include banks and payments companies. “We had to change credit card processors,” as well as the company’s bank, he said, because they were denying service to firearms companies, despite their strong creditworthiness.

  Tennessee has been another popular destination, attracting Smith & Wesson in September and Troy Industries last May, both from Massachusetts. Even before these moves were announced, Tennessee was already home to more than 20 firearms manufacturing companies.

  Smith & Wesson’s move to Maryville, Tennessee, will include a $125 million investment and create 750 new jobs. Among the many reasons cited by CEO Mark Smith were new laws proposed by Massachusetts’ Democrat-led legislature banning the sale, possession and manufacture of “assault weapons” and “large-capacity magazines” for civilian use. Smith noted that these products comprised 60 percent of his company’s revenue.

  Steve Troy, CEO of Troy Industries also cited the “changing climate for firearms manufacturers” in Massachusetts, which “determined the need for our relocation to Tennessee.” Troy Industries will invest $7 million in Clarksville, Tennessee, adding 75 jobs.

  Other firearms companies leaving blue states include Kimber Manufacturing, which left New York for Alabama; Winchester Centerfire, which left Illinois for Mississippi; Stag Arms, which left Connecticut for Wyoming; and Magpul Industries, which left Colorado for Wyoming and Texas.

  The migration of the firearms industry is part of a wider movement by American firms to escape high-tax, high-regulation states like California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey. But gun makers are in a particular hurry to exit these states in response to new laws and regulations seemingly intended to drive them out.

  What all of the destination states have in common is that “they are respectful of the contributions that these businesses make to state economies,” National Shooting Sports Foundation Managing Director Mark Oliva told The Epoch Times. “And they are respectful of the Second Amendment rights of consumers who are buying these firearms.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 21:40

• Dating Website Match.Com Has Option For 31 Genders 
  Dating Website Match.Com Has Option For 31 Genders 

  Twitter account Libs of TikTok – which aggregates videos posted on TikTok by deranged leftists, tweeted a short video clip of someone scrolling through more than two dozen genders now listed on popular online dating website Match.com. 

  Gender fluidity is on full display as users of Match can pick from 31 genders. Some of the genders listed include “Two-Spirit,” “polygender,” “pangender,” “neutrois,” and “gender questioning.” 

  At the start of the short video clip, Match asked the user: “Hi, let’s get started. Which best describes you?” There are options for “I’m a man,” “I’m a woman,” and “more options.” 

  

  The user picks “Man” but is also greeted with a list of 31 genders. Some of the other genders include “transgender person,” “genderqueer,” “gender non-conforming,” “non-binary,” “gender variant,” “transsexual man,” “gender fluid,” and “bigender,” among many others. 

  https://t.co/60TWvpLOUi has 31 listed gender options pic.twitter.com/WcN1NtnSfL

  — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) July 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Infamously in 2014, Facebook offered 72 gender options rather than two sexes. One year later, Facebook changed the gender option to an open text box.

  It appears the internet has fueled a gender revolution pushed by the radical left — has led to an increase in young people who identify as transgender or other. This is made possible by public schools allowing drag queen storytelling and the indoctrination of children in their earlier years about radical gender ideology. 

  So it makes sense why the CDC’s Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System survey recently found that the number of youths ages 13 to 17 identifying as transgender jumped to 1.4% (approximately 300,000 young transgender people), up from 0.7% of teens in 2017. The number will only rise — on a long enough timeline, comedian Bill Mahr says that 100% of the US population will be identifying with the LGBTQ by 2050 (jokingly, of course). 

  

  Academic James Lindsay has said young people are increasingly subjected to communist-style sexualization and explains why: 

  The goal is to destabilize society to make it ripe for communists to grab power, Lindsay, author of “Race Marxism” and “Cynical Theories: How Activist Scholarship Made Everything about Race, Gender, and Identity―and Why This Harms Everybody,” recently told EpochTV’s “China Insider” program.

  Gender indoctrination in public schools is reshaping society. Match’s gender list of 31 to pick from is a symptom of that. Even though there are all sorts of different genders, restaurants, stadiums, airports, and other public places, only have two bathrooms, one for male and one for female.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 21:20

• Victor Davis Hanson: The Disappearing American?
  Victor Davis Hanson: The Disappearing American?

  Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

  “Help wanted” and “Now hiring” signs are everywhere.

  Flights, construction projects, and healthcare services are delayed – or unavailable – due to labor shortages.

  Hourly and monthly wages spiral.

  There is a growing disequilibrium between the number of available jobs and the declining pool of workers needed to fill them.

  

  What is going on?

  During the nearly two-year-long COVID-19 shutdown and economic downturn, firms cut costs by laying off millions of employees.

  As a result, some in their early- or mid-60s simply retired early and never came back to work.

  Federal and state governments also vastly expanded financial support to the unemployed.

  Other workers figured they would not make all that much more by working and so are staying home on government checks.

  Still other former full-time employees became used to the new, more leisurely lifestyle and are loath to return to a full 40-hour work week.

  Employers also are now convinced that a hard recession is on the early 2023 horizon when the trillions of dollars of newly printed money run out. Many are willing to put up with worker shortages now, rather than hire too many employees only to have them idle when consumer demand soon crashes.

  Still other workers fear yet another COVID pandemic and are not eager to return to daily contact with the public.

  The government has no idea how some Americans remain sick with the mysterious “long COVID” chronic aftermath of the infectious phase of the disease.

  Well over 100 million Americans have likely had COVID. An estimated 10-30 percent do not recover for months — or even years.

  So, millions of COVID long haulers remain either unable to work or can only work part-time.

  Yet no one yet has fully calibrated the effect of newly disabled millions on the American economy.

  Add up all these dark clouds and America is experiencing a perfect storm, in which only 61% of the able workforce is currently officially employed.

  Unfortunately, there are also even longer-term, structural labor problems for the U.S. economy that make it unlikely that a new larger generation of workers will soon surge into the labor force. And for now, Silicon Valley has not produced its long promised artificially intelligent robots that would allow machines to do much of the work of people.

  True, there are more potential parents than ever before. And the American population has soared to over 330 million.

  But our population is radically leveling off.

  In just 14 years the fertility rate has crashed from 2.12 to 1.64 — meaning that both citizens and resident aliens in America are not replacing themselves.

  While past demographic momentum has led to an all-time population high, the United States has already peaked demographically. And it will soon shrink and further age.

  Thirty years ago, America had 80 million fewer people, but a quarter-million more annual births.

  What explains the disappearing American?

  Historically, as Westernized cultures become more affluent and leisured, whether it’s ancient Rome or modern America and Europe, they birth fewer children — even as their appetites for more household and personal help spike.

  Life apparently is seen as too enjoyable to invest years in raising children. Americans are certainly marrying later. They are having fewer children — and in their 30s rather than 20s.

  Women now make up nearly 60% of undergraduate college students. Female professional careers and delaying or avoiding birth are seen as essential to future family incomes.

  Given that men who pass on college now account for 70% of enrollment declines in undergraduate education, there are far too few college-educated males for the new majority cohort of college-educated women.

  The real gender crisis in America are these listless and stalled 20-something men. Too many are still living at home, not fully employed, often in debt, hooked on social media, video games, or satisfying their appetites — and with scant interest in marrying, much less raising children.

  Figures on annual abortions remain hotly disputed. But the number of annual reported abortions still ranges between somewhere from more than 600,000 to just under 900,000.

  There may be almost 20 abortions for every 100 American pregnancies — or one in five pregnancies that are terminated.

  Our popular culture reflects this multifarious growing reluctance to raise children. And currently only 65% of children grow up in families with both parents.

  The 2012 Obamacare ad, “The Life of Julia,” fixated on the new ideal American woman: a single parent of one child, unmarried, and utterly reliant on nearly 65 years of government support.

  The 2013 follow-up bookend ad fetishized “Pajama Boy.” He was supposed to be a typical prolonged-adolescent, man-child — sitting at home in his child-like footie pajamas, sipping hot chocolate.

  “Pajama Boy” was likely the sort that “Julia” had no intention of marrying.

  There are historical downsides — economic, cultural, social, and military — to nations that shun child-raising.

  They shrink in size, age, no longer believe in transcendence, become mostly agnostic or atheistic, and obsess on the self.

  And sometimes they eventually become dysfunctional — and slowly disappear.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 21:00

• "Celebrity & Wealth": Ex-Marine Paul Whelan's Sister Livid After Biden Reaches Out To Griner's Family
  “Celebrity & Wealth”: Ex-Marine Paul Whelan’s Sister Livid After Biden Reaches Out To Griner’s Family

  Update(1305ET): Given WNBA star Brittney Griner’s high-profile status and media visibility, President Joe Biden is under mounting pressure to bring her home, after on Thursday she pleaded guilty in a Russian court to drug charges after getting caught with Cannabis cartridges while going through a Moscow airport in February, just days prior to the Ukraine invasion.

  But a top Russian diplomat disagrees that the highly covered court case is a ‘big deal’. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Thursday dismissed what he called “hype” surrounding Griner’s detention in Russian jail. “The American side’s attempts to foment hype and make noise in the public environment are understandable, but they don’t help to practically resolve issues,” Ryabkov told reporters at the courthouse. Washington has slammed what it’s characterized as the Kremlin seeking to use a prominent US citizen as a political pawn amid the backdrop of war.

  But Paul Whelan’s family also appears to agree that the Griner case is being unfairly prioritized by the White House. This after, as the The Hill and others reported, there was “a conversation between President Biden, Vice President Harris and Cherelle Griner, Brittany Griner’s wife, on Wednesday.” Whelan, who is a US Marine veteran, has been in Russian detention for over three years. He was arrested in Moscow in 2018 on charges of “carrying out an act of espionage,” and sentenced to a total of 16 years in prison. His family is livid after news of the Biden phone call with Griner’s family, with Whelan’s sister saying she’s “crushed” by lack of the same or similar attention given to Whelan…

  Still looking for that press release saying @POTUS has spoken to anyone in OUR family about #PaulWhelan, wrongfully detained in #Russia for 3.5 years.

  I am crushed. If he wants to talk about securing Paul’s release, he needs to be talking to the Whelans! What are we to think?! https://t.co/jTirLwAHyF

  — elizabethwhelan (@elizabethwhelan) July 6, 2022

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  “I am crushed. If he wants to talk about securing Paul’s release, he needs to be talking to the Whelans! What are we to think?!” Elizabeth Whelan emphasized.

  Apparently, Biden made the phone call to Griner’s family merely after a media outcry, but not to the Whelan’s even after Paul is set to languish for over a decade longer:

  The White House said Biden and Harris assured Cherelle Griner that they are providing “all possible assistance” to bring home Brittney Griner, who has been in detention in Russia since February.

  Biden’s call to Cherelle Griner came after she told CBS it was “very disheartening” not to have heard from the president directly. Brittney Griner also wrote a letter to Biden urging him not to “forget about me and the other American detainees.”

  Brittney Griner actively refused to be present during the playing of the U.S. National Anthem before games, and even demanded the Anthem and flag ceremony be avoided in all games.

  I wonder what it feels like now with her begging the Red, White and Blue to come to her rescue? pic.twitter.com/Q9WHSU2SlB

  — Errol Webber (@ErrolWebber) July 7, 2022

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  * * *

  Making her second appearance in a Moscow court Thursday, WNBA star and Olympic champion Brittney Griner has pled guilty to drug charges under Russian law for which she could be given a maximum ten year sentence.

  “Brittney Griner pleaded guilty to drug smuggling charges as her trial continued in Russian court, admitting to bringing cannabis into the country but saying she had packed in a hurry and did not intend to break the law,” NPR writes. “Russia continued to make its case against Griner at her trial on Thursday, more than 140 days since the WNBA star was arrested at a Moscow-area airport on drug charges.”

  

  At this point an expected conviction is considered very likely based on the guilty plea. She’s been detained in Russia since before the war – arrested at a Moscow airport on Feb.17 for allegedly having cannabis oil on her possession, used for vaping.

  Washington has viewed her case as one where Russia is attempting to gain leverage for negotiations, using Griner as a political pawn. Weeks ago the State Department officially deemed her status “wrongfully detained” – which implies she’s being viewed as hostage of a foreign state. This allows the federal government to negotiate her return.

  Western officials have slammed a “show trial” now being conducted, but it’s a major step before possible negotiations for her return. And yet it remains that Griner pleading guilty to a crime under Russian law complicates matters, to say the least. According to analysis in ESPN:

  But before the trial even begins, U.S. experts and officials say Griner will be the subject of a show trial, and a guilty verdict is almost a certainty. The entire exercise, they say, is a negotiation tactic to push the Biden administration into trading for her freedom.

  “It’s a foregone conclusion and the trial is to uphold the state and confirm the power of the state,” says William Pomeranz, the acting director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute in Washington and an expert on Russian law. “Justice is not the immediate issue.”

  It’s likely that Griner will spend the whole proceedings in a steel cage, just as most Russian defendants in standard criminal cases.

  LIVE: Outside the Russian court where U.S. basketball player Brittney Griner plead guilty to drugs charges https://t.co/lGt9MaOVyG https://t.co/wIRRFXmki7

  — Reuters (@Reuters) July 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Russia is recently  hinted that it could be ready to negotiate a hostage swap for a notorious arms trafficker named Viktor Bout.

  Griner had been spending off-seasons from the WNBA playing for a Russian team going back to 2016. According to one prior report she was given “red carpet” treatment and paid very well:

  Griner traveled to Russia to play for UMMC Ekaterinburg, which she has been doing since 2016. The team is reportedly backed by a large corporation.

  An ESPN feature from May of that year dug into Griner’s deal. UMMC Ekaterinburg provided each American player with a personal driver in addition to other amenities. “The restaurants are good, the team pays well and takes care of every detail — chartering flights to away games, delivering bottled water to their apartments — the arena is always filled with locals, and the coaching staff” was composed of many coaches Griner was familiar with from Phoenix Mercury.

  Griner took the job to supplement her salary from the WNBA, which is something about half the league’s players do. For her first season, she was paid a little less than $1 million which was about four times the WNBA’s max annual salary. 

  There’s the possibility that she had already been waived through airports with banned vaping substances prior to her Feb.17 arrest, and that authorities may have known this – but the Kremlin could have been waiting for the politically opportune time to make headlines with the arrest.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 20:44

• What India And China Spend On Russian Oil
  What India And China Spend On Russian Oil

  India and China have both been spending more money on Russian oil in 2022 compared to 2021, but, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz details below, for different reasons.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  China’s spending on the commodity rose by 78 percent between March and May 2021 and the same time period this year. According to a report by Bloomberg, this increase can be chalked up to the price increase of oil on the world market. China receives oil from Russia through pipelines crossing the countries’ shared border which makes delivery cheaper but also harder to increase. In addition, China had already been buying most oil that can be shipped out of Russia’s Pacific ports previous to the invasion of Ukraine, another factor showing that the increase in spending in China is for approximately the same amount of oil – which the country hasn’t majorly increased but also didn’t try to decrease since the Russian war in Ukraine started.

  This shows that India has been buying additional shipments of Russian crude, which are – according to the report – those coming from Russian ports in the Western part of the country and would normally be shipped to Europe. But since European countries have decreased their buying of Russian oil, India has been accepted more shipments at a discounted prices as the route would normally be too long to be economically viable.

  The data also shows that despite India’s increase in shipments, the money it pays Putin’s regime is still far lower that the funds coming from China. While India paid $3.5 billion for the three-month period, China shelled out an much higher $15.7 billion.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 20:40

• University Of California Waives Tuition For Native Americans, Starting Fall 2022
  University Of California Waives Tuition For Native Americans, Starting Fall 2022

  Authored by Alice Sun via The Epoch Times,

  Native American students attending schools in the University of California (UC) system will have their tuition fully waived starting this fall.

  

  A student walks toward Royce Hall on the campus of University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) in Los Angeles, Calif., on March 11, 2020. (Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images)

  Announced in April, the UC Native American Opportunity Plan allows California residents who are “members of federally recognized Native American, American Indian, and Alaska Native tribes” to get free education on UC campuses. The program applies to undergraduate and graduate students.

  “The University of California is committed to recognizing and acknowledging historical wrongs endured by Native Americans,” UC President Michael Drake said in a letter (pdf).

  “I am proud of the efforts the University of California has made to support the Native American community, including the creation of the [program].”

  The UC system has ten campuses—Berkeley, Davis, Irvine, Los Angeles, Merced, Riverside, San Diego, San Francisco, Santa Barbara, and Santa Cruz. About 295,000 students were enrolled in the system in fall 2021.

  

  Students pass through Sather Gate of the college campus at the University of California–Berkeley, in a file photo. (David A. Litman/Shutterstock)

  The program is expected to cost $2.4 million and will be funded mainly by both the state’s and UC’s financial aid programs, according to Drake’s office.

  The program was developed to expand “student diversity and make the University of California more affordable and accessible,” Drake said in the letter. The approximate annual tuition for a state resident is $13,104, according to the UC Admissions office.

  California has 109 federally recognized tribes and has more Native Americans and those of Alaska Native heritage than any other state in the country, according to the Judicial Council of California.

  Native Americans make up 1.7 percent of the state’s population while accounting for 0.5 percent of the UC system’s student body in Fall 2021, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the university’s enrollment statistics.

  Some universities and lawmakers across the country are following UC’s steps.

  

  A file photo of the University of Arizona. (Epoch Times Staff)

  In June, the University of Arizona announced its Arizona Native Scholars Grant program, which completely covers tuition and mandatory fees for full-time undergraduate students who belong to any of the state’s 22 federally recognized tribes starting this fall. The program would benefit over 400 students and may expand to graduate students in the future, according to the university.

  Oregon launched a free tuition program in May for Native American students from nine federally recognized tribes in the state to remove financial barriers to a college education for the 2022–2023 school year, according to the state’s Higher Education Coordinating Commission.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 20:20

• 88% Of Americans Believe Country On "Wrong Track" Amid Inflation Storm, Poll Says
  88% Of Americans Believe Country On “Wrong Track” Amid Inflation Storm, Poll Says

  The number of Americans in financial distress continues to soar, as the latest Labor Department report shows the consumer-price index at a 40-year high of 8.6% annually. The Monmouth University Polling Institute commissioned a new study that found a majority of Americans believe the nation is on the “wrong track” because of President Biden’s economic policies. 

  Monmouth conducted the survey in late June and asked eleven questions to 978 adults age 18 and older. One question that piqued our interest was Question Six. It asked: “Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?” 

  Not surprisingly, considering the inflation situation and impending economic downturn, 88% of respondents answered “wrong track.” 

  

  “Economic concerns tend to rise to the top of the list of family concerns, as you might expect, but the singular impact of inflation is really hitting home right now,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, wrote in the study. 

  Murray added: “And most Americans are blaming Washington for their current pain.”

  When respondents were questioned about their “current financial situation,” 42% said they were “struggling.” 

  

  The study results mirror the weak performance of Biden’s job approval data, at a record low of around 38%. 

  Even with 22 straight days of gasoline declines at the pump, the president’s approval rating has yet to turn higher meaningfully — and suggests failed “Bidenomics” has scarred many working-class folks. 

  

  The state of the consumer is concerning. Many have maxed out their credit cards and drained savings to survive the inflation storm. Millions are on the verge of eviction as they can no longer pay rent. Inflation has crippled many households, and the cure to inflation is a recession, which may inflict even more pain with increasing job loss. 

  High inflation is becoming hard to ignore, and the administration continues to scapegoat Russia for the highest inflation rate in 40 years.

  “We’ve got a long way to go because of inflation, because of – I call it the Putin tax increase – Putin because of gasoline and all that grain he’s keeping from being able to get to the market,” Biden said on Wednesday in a speech to a union group in Ohio.

  Monmouth’s newest survey is a wake-up call for the Biden folks who assured everyone inflation “transitory” had been one of the worst calls in decades. The result is crushing the middle class (or whatever is left). People will take their anger out on “Bidenomics” at the polls and vote with their empty wallets come midterm elections. 

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 20:00

• Former NIH Chief Is Now Highest Paid Member Of Most Expensive White House Staff Ever
  Former NIH Chief Is Now Highest Paid Member Of Most Expensive White House Staff Ever

  Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  When Francis Collins departed as Director of the National Institutes for Health (NIH) in December 2021, his legacy included multiple-millions of dollars in secret royalty payments to himself, prominent colleagues like Dr. Anthony Fauci, and hundreds of other scientists, officials, and researchers working under him.

  

  Today, Collins is the highest paid adviser to the president with the most expensive White House staff ever, according to data compiled by the Chicago-based non-profit government watchdog, Open The Books (OTB).

  Collins is paid $300,000 annually as the Acting Science Adviser to President Joe Biden. The new salary represents a 47 percent increase over the $203,500 annual compensation Collins made as NIH Director for 12 years. All salary figures were obtained by OTB under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM).

  Earlier this year, The Epoch Times first reported that OTB uncovered more than 1,600 NIH officials, scientists, and researchers who received an estimated $350 million in secret royalty payments from sources outside the government that the agency refuses to identify.

  The payments were made between 2010 and 2020, including all but a couple of years of Collins’ tenure.

  “We also find that during this period, leadership at NIH was involved in receiving third-party payments. For instance, Francis Collins, the immediate past director of NIH, received 14 payments. Dr. Anthony Fauci received 23 payments, and his deputy, Clifford Lane, received eight payments,” OTB President Adam Andrzejewski told The Epoch Times.

  Collins’ successor as NIH Director, Dr. Lawrence Tabak, admitted to Congress in May that the secret royalty payments have “the appearance of a conflict of interest,” but he claimed the agency has sufficient internal safeguards to prevent abuse.

  Federal personnel law and regulations bar government employees from having either actual conflicts of interest or the appearance of conflicts in their decision-making as public servants.

  As was his departure from NIH, Collins’ move to the White House was accompanied by controversy. Normally, the president’s Chief Science Adviser is also Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP).

  But when Biden announced Collins’ appointment in February, the chief executive also announced that he was promoting then-OSTP Deputy Director Alondra Nelson to head the office, thus effectively installing two individuals in what had previously been a single position.

  Both positions—Science Adviser to the President and OSTP Director—were previously filled by Eric Lander, who resigned after it was reported he bullied staff members under his supervision.

  Technically, Collins is a detailee to the White House, as are the second- and third-highest paid White House advisers. Those include Luisa Paiewonsky, Senior Policy Adviser for Transportation at $191,300, and Stephanie Sykes, Director of Intergovernmental Affairs for Infrastructure Implementation at $183,100. Detailee salaries are included in the White House report to Congress on its employment costs.

  The data on the White House salaries was also made public by OTB in a report on July 1.

  There are 23 regular White House employees with the title of Assistant to the President, all paid $180,000 annually, including White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain. The average White House salary is $98,649, with both detailees and regular employees included in the calculation.

  In his first year in the Oval Office in 2021, Biden’s White House staff included 560 individuals at a cost of $49.6 million, the highest ever reported since 1995 when such data was first reported.

  President Donald Trump spent $39.5 million on 377 White House staffers in his first year in office, while President Barack Obama hired 487 White House staff members in his first year at a cost of $49.4 million. The Trump and Obama figures are adjusted for inflation, according to OTB.

  Biden’s White House staff total is almost certain to be lower at the end of 2022 than it was in 2021, because of the exodus of more than 80 individuals in recent months. Even so, OTB projects that the Biden White House staff costs will continue to be the highest ever.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 19:40

• Viral Video Shows South Korea's Next-Gen Fighter On Runway
  Viral Video Shows South Korea’s Next-Gen Fighter On Runway

  A video of South Korea’s next-generation fight jet performing ground tests went viral on the internet this week, ahead of the aircraft’s first scheduled flight. 

  YouTuber Korea Defense Blog uploaded the footage of the KF-21 Boramae (Korean for “Hawk”) taxing at Sacheon Airport, located in the South Gyeongsang Province. The airport is adjacent to Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI), the developer and manufacturer of the fighter jet that is an inexpensive, less-stealthy alternative to the Lockheed Martin F-35 and F-22 Raptor. 

  

  Six prototypes of the KF-21 are being built to support flight testing through 2026 when series production is expected to begin. A Local Korean news media outlet expects the first flight on July 22. 

  Even though the new fighter jet appears stealthy, it’s considered a 4.5 generation fighter, not quite a 5th gen fighter. It’s made to replace the Republic of Korea Air Force’s (ROKAF) aging fleet of F-4E Phantom IIs and F-5 Tigers. 

  The KF-21 will be ROKAF’s domestic-made fighter while its fleet of 40 US-made F-35As — first jet delivered by Lockheed Martin in 2018 — became operation this spring. South Korea is modernizing its military force as a show of force against North Korea. It conducted joint military drills with the US this week. 

  ROKAF is expected to deploy 40 KF-21s by 2028 and 120 by 2032, while 50 will be sent to Indonesia. 

  Modernization of the military comes as South Korea’s newly elected President Yoon Suk-yeol warned Wednesday to “promptly and sternly” retaliate against the North amid growing concerns Kim Jong-un is preparing to conduct its first nuclear test in five years.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 19:20

• US Rail System Still Deteriorating
  US Rail System Still Deteriorating

  By Rick Paterson of Loop Capital Markets, first published in Railway Age

  We’re now in the second half of 2022, when the four major U.S. Class I’s have committed to turning their operations around, but the current state of play is not encouraging. Only Union Pacific has made any progress in recent months, but that has been from a low base and fading somewhat over the past two weeks. We would regard UP and Norfolk Southern as now in a “steady state” and it’s the other two we’re more worried about in terms of trajectory.

  

  BNSF’s intermodal business, in particular, is really struggling and in no shape to handle peak season volumes, which typically start around mid-August. Last week, BNSF Intermodal hit new lows in terms of network velocity (28.9 mph vs. 32.3 average in 2021) and on-time performance (only 57% of containers deramped within 24-hours of schedule), and a new high in terms of intermodal cars sitting idle for 48-hours or longer (1,610 out of 19,969 intermodal cars-on-line). To be fair, weather and other external factors had an impact. More broadly, the full system has seen record trains holding for crews over the last six weeks and a high in recrews to 1,789 at a recrew rate of 13.4% last week.

  Over in the east, CSX is coming off two bad weeks, recording multi-year lows in velocity and multi-year highs in trains holding for crews, terminal dwell, and the proportion of cars-online sitting idle for 48 hours or more. Last week on-time performance in its manifest network hit a new record low of 64%.

  While it pains us to recount these statistics (download the complete State of the Rails report below), for what it’s worth we’re confident both BNSF and CSX have the talent to turn this around and fully expect them to do so, but you can’t start getting better until you stop getting worse and more patience will, unfortunately, be required from all of us.

  Fourth of July Double-Edged Sword

  Last week we talked about 4th of July as both a blessing and a curse for the US railroads and we’ll dig into that a little more here. On the positive side, the holiday on Monday, subsequent four days of heavily reduced customer activity, and bookending weekends represents the second biggest drop in volume pressure of the year, behind of course the Christmas to New Years period. Historically, weekly volumes temporarily subside by 14% at NS, 13% at CSX, 11% at UP, and 8% at BNSF. These are big drops in volume pressure over a 9-day period, which is both positive and badly needed given the current state of affairs. However…

  This period also represents peak summer vacation season, and the networks can obviously ill-afford to lose crews during a crew capacity crunch. In terms of putting some numbers around it, if we look at the monthly seasonality in the four years prior to the pandemic, midmonth crew headcount fell by 0.5% on average from mid-June into mid-July for the US rail industry. For some reason it’s more pronounced in the east, with CSX and NS down 3.3% and 0.8%, respectively, versus -0.2% at UP and +0.5% at BNSF. Clearly these mid-month statistics also understate the crew shortfalls over the first ~nine days of July. By July 15th the heavy vacation effect has partially normalized.

  The railroads are of course well aware of this dynamic and no doubt doing all they can to buy out/stagger/delay vacations next week, but it likely won’t be completely successful and we’re still looking at a situation where the opportunity try to improve operations during the volume pressure reprieve will be diluted by temporarily increased crew scarcity.

  Crew Deficit: ~4,100

  Updating our crew models with the most recent data points for network velocity (last week) results in the following updated estimates with regard to the minimum number of additional crews required to trigger a service recovery. We’ve regressed slightly, with net velocity for the four major systems slightly slower last week, which pushes our estimated crew deficit from ~4,000 to ~4,100.

  In terms of predicting the order in which these systems operationally inflect for the better, look at the % Deficit column on the far right. The smaller the number, the closer to recovery.

  

  Some of the railroad’s T&E crew headcount numbers (Actual Crews) include trainees, which are higher as a percentage of total now than historically, which in turn makes the crew deficit numbers look slightly better (smaller) than they actually are. When railroads are running poorly, crew capacity is diluted by non-productive crew starts, such as deadheads (repositioning crews by road transport) and recrews (replacing a crew due to an unanticipated expiration of the allowable 12 hours). It will likely take several months before conductor graduates in the field are satisfactorily productive.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 19:00

• WSJ Op-Ed Pushes 'Rebuilding Relations' With China, Ignoring Overwhelming Threats
  WSJ Op-Ed Pushes ‘Rebuilding Relations’ With China, Ignoring Overwhelming Threats

  Sure, China spies on Americans, a lot. And Beijing is eclipsing the West in R&D after years of corporate espionage. And yes, FBI Director Christopher Wray may have said “no country poses a greater threat than Communist China” over the agency’s 1,000 investigations involving theft of US technology.

  And China’s “deepening strategic partnership” with Russia may pose “serious challenges” to global stability, according to NATO.

  And OK, China is holding over a million ethnic minority Muslims in concentration camps.

  And according to Kyle Bass, China’s ‘digital yuan’ is the biggest threat to the West.

  And the sitting US president’s brother and crack-addict son Hunter may have handed Beijing massive leverage over the first family following shady dealings with CCP-linked executives.

  BUT…

  We should overlook all of that in order to ‘improve US-China relations,’ according to a Wednesday Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal by the CEO of a 102-year-old insurance firm operating out of Shanghai.

  

  Let’s hear Maurice out!

  The deteriorating state of affairs between the U.S. and China has destabilized the most important bilateral relationship in the world. Many Chinese companies do business in the U.S., as do American companies in China, across all sectors. Hundreds of billions of dollars in goods and services are exchanged annually that present tremendous benefits to both economies.

  We should build on that. It is in our national interest, now more than ever, to do all we can to improve U.S.-China relations. My company was founded by Cornelius Vander Starr, an American businessman, in Shanghai more than 100 years ago. I understand that opposing worldviews make attempts to establish a constructive dialogue difficult, but given what is at stake, it only makes sense to try. -WSJ

  To that end, Greenberg says “we” (whatever that means) have established “a small group of senior US businesses and policy leaders who have experience in China” and who want to “have a more constructive relationship” (whatever that means) with Beijing – which we suppose they think will stop all of the IP theft, or at least allow Greenberg and friends to continue enriching themselves whilst turning a blind eye.

  “Our new group will help foster a measured but frank exchange between the U.S. and Chinese governments on issues of mutual concern,” Greenberg claims, citing a “long history of collaboration” between the US and China predating World War II.

  And of course, Greenberg blames the Trump administration for ‘eliminating bilateral channels’ between governments, which he says increased the level of differences and mistrust.

  So, orange man bad. China actually good.

  Greenberg has provided a handy list of his new pro-China consortium:

  Our founding members include the following:

  • Maurice R. Greenberg, Chairman and CEO, C.V. Starr & Co.
  • Craig Allen, president, U.S. China Business Council
  • Max Baucus, former U.S. ambassador to China
  • William Cohen, former secretary of defense
  • Thomas Donohue, former president and CEO, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
  • William Ford, chairman and CEO, General Atlantic
  • Dan Glaser, president and CEO, Marsh McLennan
  • John Hamre, President and CEO, Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Carla Hills, former U.S. trade representative
  • Ken Langone, co-founder, The Home Depot Inc.
  • Joseph Lieberman, former U.S. Senator
  • Stephen Orlins, president, National Committee on U.S. China Relations
  • Stapleton Roy, former U.S. diplomat specializing in Asian Affairs
  • Frances Townsend, former U.S. homeland security adviser

  Perhaps they can get John Cena to apologize in Mandarin whenever Americans offend Xi Jinping?

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 18:40

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• Belarus Threatens To Strike Poland If Cross-Border "Provocations" Launched
  Belarus Threatens To Strike Poland If Cross-Border “Provocations” Launched

  On Wednesday the Belarusian military issued a stern warning and statement threatening that it’s ready to strike Polish military infrastructures if “provocations” are launched from Poland, however no specifics were given on the type of aggression Belarus is alleging could happen.

  The vague warning comes as tensions are already soaring between close Putin-ally Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus and outspoken NATO member Poland. For starters, Warsaw has long accused Lukashenko of weaponizing migrants, and days ago completed construction on a controversial new section of border wall spanning 186 kilometers. 

  Poland is likening the border wall as part of the country’s “fight against Russia”. Last Thursday Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki while speaking of the wall said, “The first sign of the war in Ukraine was [Belarus President] Alexander Lukashenko’s attack on the Polish border.”

  

  And now, late in the day Wednesday, the Polish prime minister is alleging that Russian agencies have conducted a major hack of Polish government devices, per news wires. The accusation comes a week after several Lithuanian public and private websites went down in what was described as a cyberattack carried out by a Russian-backed hacker group.

  Meanwhile, Ukraine has said that Russia is attempting to draw its large ally Belarus into the Ukraine conflict. So far, Belarus’ logistics and staging support to Russian troops has been well-known, but Minsk has refrained from sending in active military forces.

  Additionally, late last month Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia will supply Belarus with Iskander-M mobile guided missile systems. Though conventional weapons, they they are capable of carrying nuclear warheads – thus the action earned the condemnation of the Pentagon after Putin said, “we will transfer to Belarus Iskander-M tactical missile systems, which can use ballistic or cruise missiles, in their conventional and nuclear versions.”

  Iskander missiles are known to have a range of up to 500km and will be handed over to Belarus “within months,” according to Putin’s prior statement.

  At the time of that announcement, Lukashenko informed Putin that Belarus remains alarmed “aggressive” and “confrontational” policies of its NATO neighbors Lithuania and Poland.

  

  This has fueled concern that should the Ukraine war spill across borders, the fault line would be precisely along Russia’s ally Belarus and its Baltic and East European neighbors to the West. Belarus has already come under US and EU sanctions for its open support given to Putin’s war efforts against Ukraine, allowing Russia to launch the Feb.24 invasion from its territory.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 02:45

• Escobar: The Empire Is Not Done Torturing Afghanistan
  Escobar: The Empire Is Not Done Torturing Afghanistan

  Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Cradle,

  Despite its resounding defeat, NATO is not quite done with inflicting misery on the land of the Afghans…

  

  Once upon a time, in a galaxy not far away, the Empire of Chaos launched the so-called “War on Terror” against an impoverished cemetery of empires at the crossroads of Central and South Asia.

  In the name of national security, the land of the Afghans was bombed until the Pentagon ran out of targets, as their chief Donald Rumsfeld, addicted to “known unknowns,” complained at the time.

  Operation ‘Enduring Captivity’

  Civilian targets, also knows as “collateral damage,” was the norm for years. Multitudes had to flee to neighboring nations to find shelter, while tens of thousands were incarcerated for unknown reasons, some even dispatched to an illegal imperial gulag on a tropical island in the Caribbean.

  War crimes were duly perpetrated – some of them denounced by an organization led by a sterling journalist who was subsequently subjected to years of psychological torture by the same Empire, obsessed with extraditing him into its own prison dystopia.

  All the time, the smug, civilized ‘international community’ – shorthand for the collective west – was virtually deaf, dumb and blind. Afghanistan was occupied by over 40 nations – while repeatedly bombed and droned by the Empire, which suffered no condemnation for its aggression; no package after package of sanctions; no confiscation of hundreds of billions of dollars; no punishment at all.

  The first casualty of war

  At the peak of its unipolar moment, the Empire could experiment with anything in Afghanistan because impunity was the norm. Two examples spring to mind: Kandahar, Panjwayi district, March 2012: an imperial soldier kills 16 civilians and then burns their bodies. While in Kunduz, April 2018: a graduation ceremony receives a Hellfire missile greeting, with over 30 civilians killed.

  The final act of the imperial “non-aggression” against Afghanistan was a drone strike in Kabul that did not hit “multiple suicide bombers” but instead eviscerated a family of 10, including several children. The “imminent threat” in question, identified as an “ISIS facilitator” by US intelligence, was actually an aid worker returning to meet his family. The ‘international community’ duly spewed imperial propaganda for days until serious questions started to be asked.

  Questions also keep emerging on the conditions surrounding the Pentagon training of Afghan pilots to fly the Brazilian-built A-29 Super Tucano between 2016 and 2020, which completed over 2,000 missions providing support for imperial strikes. During training at Moody Air Force base in the US, more than half of the Afghan pilots actually went AWOL, and afterward, most were quite uneasy with the pile up of civilian ‘collateral damage.’ Of course the Pentagon has kept no record of Afghan victims.

  What was extolled instead by the US Air Force is how the Super Tucanos dropped laser bombs on ‘enemy targets:’ Taliban fighters who “like to hide in towns and places” where civilians live. Miraculously, it was claimed that the “precision” strikes never “hurt the local people.”

  That’s not exactly what an Afghan refugee in Britain, sent away by his family when he was only 13, revealed over a month ago, talking about his village in Tagab: “All the time there was fighting over there. The village belongs to the Taliban (…) My family is still there, I do not know if they are alive or died. I don’t have any contact with them.”

  Drone diplomacy

  One of the first foreign policy decisions of the Obama administration in early 2009 was to turbo-charge a drone war over Afghanistan and the tribal areas in Pakistan. Years later, a few intelligence analysts from other NATO nations started to vent off the record, about CIA impunity: drone strikes would get a green light even if killing scores of civilians was a near certainty – as it happened not only in ‘AfPak’ but also across other war theaters in West Asia and North Africa.

  Nevertheless, imperial logic is ironclad. The Taliban were by definition “terra-rists” – in trademark Bush drawl. By extension, villages in Afghan deserts and mountains were aiding and abetting “terra-rists,” so eventual drone victims would never raise a ‘human rights’ issue.

  When Afghans – or Palestinians – become collateral damage, that’s irrelevant. When they become war refugees, they are a threat. Yet Ukrainian civilian deaths are meticulously recorded and when they become refugees, they are treated as heroes.

  A massive ‘data-driven defeat’

  As former British diplomat Alastair Crooke has remarked, Afghanistan was the definitive showcase for technical managerialism, the test bed for “every single innovation in technocratic project management” encompassing Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and military sociology embedded in ‘Human Terrain Teams’ – this experiment helped spawn Empire’s ‘rules-based international order.’

  But then, the US-backed puppet regime in Kabul collapsed not with a bang, but a whimper: a spectacular “data-driven defeat.”

  Hell hath no fury like Empire scorned. As if all the bombing, droning, years of occupation and serial collateral damage was not misery enough, a resentful Washington topped its performance by effectively stealing $7 billion from the Afghan central bank: that is, funds that belong to roughly 40 million battered Afghan citizens.

  Now, exiled Afghans are getting together trying to prevent relatives from 9/11 victims in the US to seize $3.5 billion of these funds to pay off debts allegedly owed by the Taliban – who have absolutely nothing to do with 9/11.

  Unlawful does not even begin to qualify the confiscation of assets from an impoverished nation afflicted by a currency in free fall, high inflation and a terrifying humanitarian crisis, whose only ‘crime’ was to defeat the imperial occupation on the battleground fair and square. By any standards, would that persist, the qualification of international war crime applies. And collateral damage, in this case, will mean the termination of any “credibility” still enjoyed by the “indispensable nation.”

  The full amount of foreign reserves should be unequivocally returned to the Afghan Central Bank. Yet everyone knows that’s not going to happen. At best, a limited monthly installment will be released, barely enough to stabilize prices and allow average Afghans to buy essentials such as bread, cooking oil, sugar and fuel.

  The west’s own ‘Silk Road’ was dead on arrival

  No one remembers today that the US State Department came up with its own New Silk Road idea in July 2011, formally announced by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a speech in India. Washington’s aim, at least in theory, was to re-link Afghanistan with Central/South Asia, yet privileging security over the economy.

  The spin was to “turn enemies into friends and aid into trade.” The reality, however, was to prevent Kabul from falling into the Russia/China sphere of influence – represented by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – after the tentative withdrawal of US troops in 2014 (the Empire ended up formally being expelled only in 2021).

  The American Silk Road would eventually allow the go-ahead for projects such as the TAPI natural gas pipeline, the CASA-1000 electricity line, the Sheberghan thermal power facility and a national fiber optic ring in the telecom sector.

  There was much talk about  “development of human resources;” building infrastructure – railways, roads, dams, economic zones, resource corridors; promotion of good governance; building the capacity of “local stakeholders.”

  A zombie of an empire

  In the end, the Americans did less than nothing. The Chinese, playing the long game, will be leading Afghanistan’s resurgence, after patiently waiting for the Empire to be expelled.

  Afghanistan for its part will be welcomed into the real New Silk Roads: the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), complete with financing by the Silk Road Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and interconnecting with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the Central Asian BRI corridor, and eventually the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) and the Iran-India-Russia-led International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC).

  Now compare and contrast with imperial minions NATO, whose “new” strategic concept boils down to expanded warmongering against the Global South, and beyond – including the outer galaxies. At least we know that should NATO ever be tempted back into Afghanistan, then another ritual, excruciating humiliation awaits.

  Tyler Durden
  Thu, 07/07/2022 – 02:00

• Attorneys Claim Government Manufacturing Evidence To Charge, Incarcerate Jan. 6 Prisoners
  Attorneys Claim Government Manufacturing Evidence To Charge, Incarcerate Jan. 6 Prisoners

  Authored by Patricia Tolson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  As Jan. 6 prisoners continue to languish in jail without trials, without bond and in subhuman conditions, two Jan. 6 attorneys are claiming the government is manufacturing evidence to arrest and incarcerate them. Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-Texas) says the government is also “hiding evidence” that could possibly exonerate some of them.

  

  This is not the first time Democrats have manufactured evidence to support their allegations in a legal proceeding.

  A History of Fabricating Evidence

  In July of 2018, the infamous Steele dossier was revealed to be little more than a collection of unverified opposition research funded by Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC), to obtain a warrant to spy on former Trump campaign volunteer Carter Page and to derail the Trump campaign.

  During a Sept. 26, 2019, Intelligence Committee hearing, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) read a fabricated transcript of a phone call between former President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. When he was caught, he claimed it was “a parody.”

  During the first impeachment trials in February 2021, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) used a photoshopped version of a Twitter post Trump re-tweeted about supporters “fighting” for the country to make it seem more ominous.

  After being caught and being forced to admit they doctored a text message between Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows during the December 2021 Jan. 6 hearings, and also excluded content about how they had wanted former Vice President Mike Pence to handle electoral votes during the Joint Session of Congress, Jordan further opined that their statement saying “We regret the error,” is really government-speak for, “We got caught lying.”

  At the televised House committee hearing related to the protests that took place at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021—Jordan said members of the House select committee had altered a text message exchange between him and former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows “and lied to the American people about it.”

  J-6 Cases: ‘Manipulating Evidence’

  Joseph McBride, an attorney for multiple Jan. 6 prisoners and defendants, is certain the government is “manipulating evidence.”

  “In terms of attorneys,” McBride told The Epoch Times, “I’m probably the most outspoken attorney in the United States of America who is representing Jan. 6 defendants.”

  McBride said he has “five, going on six” criminal defendants related to Jan. 6 and three civil rights cases. He also represented five Jan. 6 defendants before the Jan. 6 committee. Considering the depth of his involvement, McBride believes he’s “far and away” the most eligible and outspoken attorney among those attached to the Jan. 6 legal battles.

  “You are not allowed to punish a pre-trial detainee in the United States of America because you are innocent until proven guilty” McBride stated. “It is only after you have been convicted of a crime or plead through a crime that you can be punished for a crime. Punishment for a crime is deprivation of freedom. … My clients and others like them have been brutally assaulted. They’ve been locked away in cells for months at a time. They’ve been denied medical care and have had their human rights, their civil rights, and their constitutional rights violated by the staff at the D.C. gulag, by the staff at the Northern Neck jail because they have been green-lighted by the Biden machine to harm anybody who showed up at the Capitol on January 6 to speak out about the election results. It is unconstitutional. It is immoral. It is un-American. It is wrong.”

  Suspicious Affidavits

  McBride also says the government’s use of lengthy and extravagantly detailed affidavits is “much different than your normal cases and they’re frontloading these complaints with facts that aren’t proven and these allegations are subsequently being weaponized in the court of public opinion.”

  According to McBride, complaint affidavits are generally written as hastily as possible because the only purpose of a complaint affidavit is to initiate the legal process by establishing probable cause. Complaint affidavits are normally followed quickly by the return of an indictment by a grand jury.

  But the Jan. 6 complaint affidavits can run in excess of 20, 30, 40, and even 50 pages long, which begs the question of “why?”

  For McBride, the answer is simple. Because Department of Justice (DOJ) policy only allows the government to make public comments about matters that are already a matter of public record, making sure all of that detail is part of the public record enables the government to release this information to the public to destroy the reputations of the accused ahead of a trial.

  Another Jan. 6 attorney, Bill Shipley, is equally convinced the government is manufacturing evidence to support a narrative.

  Shipley has called into question the validity of photo and video screenshot “evidence” used in three of his cases. Two of them are outlined below.

  The Case of Brian Mock

  According to the 14-page Criminal Complaint (pdf), Brian Christopher Mock has been charged with: “Assaulting, Resisting, or Impeding Certain Officers, Knowingly Entering or Remaining in any Restricted Building or Grounds Without Lawful Authority; Disorderly and Disruptive Conduct in a Restricted Building or Grounds, Obstruction of Law Enforcement During Civil Disorder, Acts of Physical Violence in any of the Capitol Buildings or Grounds.”

  However, all of the charges are based on screen grabs from videos that do not confirm the allegations.

  Shipley told The Epoch Times “both the government and the court have acknowledged that video 1 does not show any actual assault by defendant Mock as alleged in the indictment.”

  “If video 1 showed Mr. Mock kicking the fallen officer it would have been simple to write, ‘The video shows Mr. Mock kicking the fallen officer,’” Shipley said. “Judge Howell didn’t write that because video 1 doesn’t show that.  The government knows it, Mr. Mock knows it, and Judge Howell knew it.

  “The simple reality is that video 1 shows the unidentified victim officer already on the ground when Mr. Mock is first seen on camera. There are two other protesters—one wearing camouflage and the other wearing a red hat—on the ground with the victim officer at the moment defendant Mock is first seen. Defendant Mock is standing in close proximity to the three of them.  He is not seen shoving the fallen officer to the ground.”

  According to Shipley, the entire segment of video 1, which is relevant to the first alleged assault, lasts only four seconds. At no point during those four seconds does video 1 show Mock’s foot making contact with any part of the Officer’s body.

  “Nevertheless, the government made a proffer in its emergency motion (pdf) that the video showed defendant Mock shoving the officer to the ground and then kicking the officer” and “relied heavily on a single screenshot from the video that appears to show defendant Mock’s right foot off the ground.”

  “If the government had video of Mr. Mock’s right foot striking the victim officer, it is quite certain it would have included a screenshot of that particular moment instead of the one it choose,” Shipley argued. “The obvious conclusion is the government has no such video.  It hasn’t produced one in discovery.”

  

  In another incident, Mock is accused of shoving an officer to the ground, causing and injury to the officer’s right elbow.

  According to the 14-page criminal complaint (pdf), filed June 10, 2021, by Special Agent Beth Alvarez, “Officer [SK] recalled being shoved onto his back by one of the rioters. During the melee, Officer [SK’s] right elbow was hit right in the area where two protective pads on his arm meet.”

  When Mock was arrested, Alvarez—the affiant on the complaint affidavit—wrote the following statement under oath:

  “According to Victim 2, his right elbow hit the ground right in the area where two pads come together after the shove, causing excruciating pain at the time of impact.”

  The complaint affidavit is dated June 10, 2021, precisely one month after the interview of the officer. During the 30 days between those two documents, the mechanics of how the officer injured his elbow changed. She first wrote he suffered the injury to his elbow “during the melee,” without reference to Mock or his actions. However, one month later, Alvarez wrote that his right elbow hit the ground right in the area where the two pads come together as a result of Mock’s shove.

  Brian Mock has created a GiveSendGo account to help offset his ongoing legal expenses.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 23:25

• South Korea Is Revamping A Push For Nuclear Energy To Meet Its Emission Targets
  South Korea Is Revamping A Push For Nuclear Energy To Meet Its Emission Targets

  In energy, it looks like common sense is starting to win out at least somewhere…

  South Korea is going to be adding 4 more nuclear reactors by 2030 and will also be extending the life of 10 other plants, according to a new report from Bloomberg. The expansion of its nuclear power capabilities comes amidst a struggle to bring the country to net zero emissions.

  More than 30% of the nation’s power will soon be provided by nuclear by the end of the decade, the report says. This would be up from 27.4% last year. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been a supporter of nuclear throughout his campaign for president. 

  Yoon Suk Yeol has said that nuclear could be used alongside of renewables to reach emission targets. Renewable energy’s share of the country’s emissions targets will be adjusted under the new government, however it’ll maintain the previous government’s emissions goals.

  

  President Moon Jae-in’s administration previously had plans to phase out nuclear, a policy that some said could see electricity costs for the country rise 5x by 2050. Additional nuclear reactor builds were scrapped under the administration. 

  The incoming administration is also going to be expanding strategic reserves for oil and liquefied natural gas. Crude stockpiles, for example, will rise to more than 100 million barrels by 2025, up from 96.5 million barrels currently. LNG reserves will rise to 18.4 million kiloliters by 2034, up from 13.7 million, the report says. 

  Jang Daul, a government relations and advocacy specialist at Greenpeace East Asia based in Seoul, of course had a problem with the idea, telling Bloomberg: “The fact that the new government is saying renewable energy will be adjusted at a ‘reasonable level’ basically means it will be lowering the renewable electricity target.”

  We have long suggested that nuclear power is a pragmatic solution to the world’s energy needs and our contributors have argued that advocates know it is clean, efficient and safe.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 23:05

• Is The Chinese Yuan Beginning To Chip Away At Dollar Dominance?
  Is The Chinese Yuan Beginning To Chip Away At Dollar Dominance?

  Via SchiffGold.com,

  China appears to be chipping away at dollar dominance.

  

  While there is no indication that the dollar is in imminent danger of toppling from its perch as the global reserve currency, more central banks are warming up to the yuan.

  According to UBS Asset Management’s annual reserve manager survey, about 85% of central banks said they are invested in or are considering investing in the Chinese yuan. That’s up from 81% a year earlier.

  USB surveyed 30 top central banks.

  On average, central bank foreign exchange managers plan to hold about 5.8% of reserves in yuan within the next 10 years. That would represent a sharp increase from the 2.9% level of global reserve yuan holdings reported by the International Monetary Fund in late June.

  Meanwhile, the average share of US dollar holdings dropped to 63% as of June 2022, according to the survey. That was down from 69% in the previous year.

  According to Business Insider, the response to the invasion of  Ukraine “has increased talk about a ‘multipolar’ world, in which the US is no longer the overwhelmingly dominant force.

  There is some speculation that the weaponization of the dollar to punish Russia for the invasion of Ukraine has motivated some countries to diversify away from the dollar. Less exposure to the greenback means less exposure to diplomatic and economic pressure from Washington DC.

  Declining confidence in the dollar started long before recent events in Ukraine. The Federal Reserve printed trillions of dollars out of thin air in response to COVID-19. This devalued the dollar as evidenced by the surge in prices over the last year. This was the predictable result of creating money out of thin air and handing it out to spend. More money chasing the same amount (or with governments shutting down economies fewer) goods and services will always lead to a general rise in prices.

  The only reason the US can get away with this policy to the extent that it does is its role as the world reserve currency. There is a built-in global demand for dollars that helps absorb the money printing. But what happens if that demand drops? What happens if China and other countries decide they don’t want to hold a currency that is losing value every day?

  After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US cut some Russian banks, including the central bank, off from the SWIFT payment system.

  SWIFT  stands for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. The system enables financial institutions to send and receive information about financial transactions in a secure, standardized environment. Since the dollar serves as the world reserve currency, SWIFT facilitates the international dollar system.

  SWIFT and dollar dominance gives the US a great deal of leverage over other countries.

  And the US went a step further. In an unprecedented move, the Federal Reserve froze Russia’s dollar reserves. In effect, Russia’s dollar assets are valueless to the country. It can’t use them at all.

  Even if you think Russia deserves these draconian economic sanctions, it’s important to remember that they could come at a cost.

  Recent dollar strength compared to other world currencies suggests that the dollar remains in a strong position. But things could shift quickly. How much more borrowing and printing will the world tolerate before they become wary of holding dollars? And will the US propensity to use the dollar as a foreign policy weapon undermine trust in the greenback?

  The world is watching.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 22:45

• Heat Dome Roasting Millions Across Central US
  Heat Dome Roasting Millions Across Central US

  A dangerous heat wave continues to linger over the central and southern Plains to the Southeast. 

  “There is a strong heat dome, and underneath that, we have had much above-normal to near-record temperatures.

  “The pattern has been pretty stagnant and consistent for the last several weeks,” Zack Taylor, a senior branch forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center, told Bloomberg. 

  Widespread excessive heat warnings and heat advisories stretch across Texas, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Kentucky, and all the way to the Carolinas for Thursday. 

  

  Taylor said two low-pressure systems, one in the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast, have trapped heat in the central US for the last several weeks.

  

  On Thursday, metro areas in the central and southern Plains could break daily temperature records. Memphis is expected to break a 147-year record of 102 degrees Ferhinheigth set in 1875. 

  Dangerous heat will continue across the Mid-South this week. The entire Mid-South is in an Excessive Heat Warning through at least Thursday evening for heat index values at or above 110 degrees. #tnwx #arwx #mswx #mowx pic.twitter.com/rgxd6ian4x

  — NWS Memphis (@NWSMemphis) July 6, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Relief might not come until late next week as the heat dome trapped over the central US continues to bake millions of people. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 22:25

• Treasury Market Whiplash Speaks To Lack Of Conviction, Liquidity
  Treasury Market Whiplash Speaks To Lack Of Conviction, Liquidity

  By Benjamin Purvis, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

  The switchbacks that US rate markets have witnessed in the past few days have been quite breathtaking. It’s not just that the moves have been big — we’ve been seeing a lot of that lately as traders adjust their views on inflation and growth — but that the market has been turning so sharply within the space of a session, and seemingly out of proportion to any change in fundamental circumstances that data or central bank commentary might suggest.

  

  The volatility underscores not only a lack of certainty about which way inflation and recession risks will play out, but also speaks to both the lack of liquidity within markets and a lack of real conviction among investors. The former has been a hot topic of discussion, particularly as the Fed embarks on its quantitative tightening program. And the latter is borne out by recent indicators that show many folks desperately clinging to neutral stances.

  The big round number that is 3% provides a useful illustration for just how whiplashy things have been. Earlier on Wednesday, it was a key focus for the long end, with the 30-year breaking below that level for the first time in over a month. But by day’s end, the long bond was nowhere near there and it was the two-year rate pushing back above that level.

  The 10-year yield meanwhile had a roundtrip of almost 19 basis points on the day Wednesday, having been down more than 6 and ending up by more than 12. And it had an even bigger journey the day before, albeit in a broadly opposite direction.

  This doesn’t all happen in a vacuum, of course. Various economic indicators and the release of the most recent Fed minutes have provided plenty for traders to chew on. The vagaries of risk-taking in stock markets and elsewhere are also adding to the turbulence. But it’s still hard to see a catalyst for investors genuinely reassessing their views so much in such a short period of time.

  And indeed, if you step back a little, you see they’re not. Despite all the sound and fury, the ranges for say, the 10-year yield, have been broadly similar for the past three days. Little wonder, I guess, that real money investors might look to stay on the sidelines a bit longer, at least until they summon a slightly more conviction themselves about which way the economy, policy and markets are headed.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 22:05

• Goldman: "The World Is On The Brink Of A Rather Severe Recession"
  Goldman: “The World Is On The Brink Of A Rather Severe Recession”

  Goldman, which like Morgan Stanley and unlike Nomura and Deutsche Bank, refuses to make a recession its base case (but is quick to make it very clear that in case of recession the S&P will drop to 3,150), has looked back at all the 77 recessions across the globe since 1961 to provide context around the current economic environment in a report titled “Revisiting Recession Facts” (available to pro subs).  The report’s bottom-line according to Goldman’s Chris Hussey: some of what we are seeing today — economic overheating and large increases in rates — suggests that the world could be on the brink of a rather severe recession.” That said, the bank highlights several other aspects of the current environment which provide a buffer against a notable turndown in activity. And for once we agree with Goldman, according to which the key thing to watch is the “fiscal and monetary response to a downturn.” And since Democrats will lose Congress this November and there will be no new fiscal stimulus until 2025 at the earliest, we would add that the only thing to watch is the monetary response, i.e., when the Fed will i) cut rates back to zero, ii) resume QE and/or iii) cut rates negative.

  Before we dig into the Goldman report, which looks at key facts about the frequency and severity of recessions analyzing 77 recessions in advanced economies since 1961, here are the main findings:

  • According to Goldman, the odds that the economy enters a recession in the next year at 30% in the US, 40% in the Euro area, and 45% in the UK.
  • Goldman’s subjective recession probabilities are significantly higher than the average 15% annual unconditional probability of advanced economies to enter a recession since the 1960s.
  • The unemployment rate has risen by 2.7% in the median advanced economy recession since the 60s with larger increases in the 1980s and the UK but smaller increases in Japan. The distribution is slightly skewed towards larger increases in more severe recessions.
  • Economic overheating—high unit labor cost growth and high core inflation—and large cumulative increases in the policy rate often precede severe recessions. In contrast, elevated private sector financial surpluses often foreshadow less severe recessions.
  • Currently, across the advanced economies, unit labor cost growth, core inflation, and the expected total increase in the policy rate are generally running at levels similar to the runup of the typical advanced economy recession. Higher measures of economic overheating in the US, UK, and Canada than in Japan and the Euro area suggest that the next recession may be somewhat less shallow in these English-speaking G10 economies. In contrast, the private sector financial balance has been much higher than ahead of the typical recession for all economies, hinting at a shallow next recession.
  • Other factors outside the historical dataset paint a mixed picture. On the pessimistic side, the monetary and fiscal policy response might be more limited than usual and energy disruptions are the main risk in Europe. On the optimistic side, long run inflation and wage expectations still appear mostly anchored and substantial supply side improvement opportunities remain.

  With that in mind, let’s delve deeper into the report starting with…

  Frequency

  Goldman summarizes the historical frequency of recessions using official recession classifications, such as the NBER in the US, when available. Exhibit 1 shows that the annual unconditional probability of advanced economies to enter a recession since the 1960s has been roughly 15% on average. It also shows that recession risk has not varied much across countries or over time over the past several decades.

  

  Goldman’s subjective recession probability in the US of 30% over the next year is also elevated relative to its own extended history. The annual probability of entering a recession in the US has averaged 12% since the 90’s (Exhibit 2), though it averaged a much higher 23% between 1855-1990. US recessions have become less frequent following the creation of the Federal Reserve, the anchoring of inflation expectations, and the decline in the relative importance of the cyclical manufacturing sector.

  

  Severity

  Goldman then defines the severity of recessions using the trough to peak change in the unemployment rate. The list excludes the “exogenous” pandemic recession of 2020 as increases in the unemployment rate were either outsized outliers in countries such as the US and Canada or significantly limited by furlough schemes in Europe and Japan.

  Exhibit 3 shows that the unemployment rate has risen by 2.7% in the median advanced economy recession since the 60s, with somewhat larger increases in the 1980s (Exhibit 3, left). Countries with larger increases in the unemployment rate also tend to have less frequent recessions—including the UK, Netherlands, and Sweden. In contrast, countries with smaller increases in the unemployment rate tend to have more frequent recessions, such as Germany, Italy, and Japan.

  

  The distribution of the change in the unemployment rate during recessions shows a slight skew towards more severe recessions. The distributions in the UK and Canada are especially skewed towards more severe recessions, while the distribution in Japan is skewed towards less severe recessions.

  

  Predictors of Severity

  Goldman next summarizes the predictors of recession severity focusing on variables that have a long history: it finds that economic overheating—unit labor cost growth and high core inflation (Exhibit 5)—and large cumulative increases in the policy rate often precede severe recessions. In contrast, large private sector financial surpluses often foreshadow less severe recessions.

  

  Implications

  What do these findings imply for the size of the next recession? Across advanced economies, unit labor cost growth, core inflation, and the expected total increase in the policy rate are generally running at levels similar to the runup of the typical advanced economy recession, with more overheating in the US, UK, and Canada and less in Japan and the Euro area. In contrast, the private sector financial balance has been much higher than ahead of the typical recession across advanced economies.

  

   

  Taken together, Exhibits 6 and 7 paint a mixed picture about the size of the next recession in the English-speaking G10 economies.

  According to Goldman, on the pessimistic side, elevated economic overheating measures point to a higher than usual right tail risk of severe recession. On the optimistic side, the bank’s strategists suggest that the large private sector surplus points to a shallow recession; what they ignore is the adverse effect of tens of trillions in lost equity value, which last time we looked is viewed as “savings” by modern economists too. So while there may be $2 trillion more in excess savings, there is $20 trillion less in stock market equity. Which is worse?

  Turning to other factors outside of Goldman’s historical dataset, we again see a mixed picture.

  On the pessimistic side, the monetary and fiscal policy response might be more limited than usual because policy rates remain close to their effective lower bound while both central bank balance sheets and government debt levels are very large by historical standards. Moreover, the exposure to the war in Ukraine and the risk of energy supply shortages paint a relatively negative view for Germany and Italy, especially with the possibility of gas shutdowns in the winter. On the more optimistic side, long run inflation and wage expectations still appear mostly anchored, although as even Powell will admit, that is changing fast. Moreover, substantial supply side improvement opportunities remain in both global supply chains—where delivery times have shortened—and in the labor market.

  

  What is more relevant however, is that as Goldman writes in a separate report titled Timing the cuts, “Investors seem to be shifting focus from pricing a potential recession, to pricing future Fed cuts … for as early as 2023.” Indeed, as we have been pounding the table since early this year, the timing of those cuts is all that matters.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 21:45

• Luongo: China Queues Up To Join The Davos Beatdown
  Luongo: China Queues Up To Join The Davos Beatdown

  Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

  The headlines are full of abject terror that Germany’s vaunted industrial base can collapse, and with it the banking sector, if Russia pulls all natural gas supplies.

  Of course, this is exactly what the EU said they wanted, and the question now is will they get it, to quote H.L. Mencken, “good and hard.”

  So, finally, after destroying their own economy, the politicians in Europe are considering the right question, “Did we do this to ourselves?”

  The Euro’s collapse yesterday morning to a new twenty-year low below $1.03 is answering a resounding, “Yes. Yes you did.” I’m sure the board at Uniper, now staring at a $9+ billion bailout after Vice-Chancellor Robert Haebeck and the rest of his Green/Neocon zealots destroyed their investment in the Nordstream 2 pipeline, would agree with the market.

  And so much of this is because now the markets are fully handicapping a global recession based on a spate of terrible economic news, including Germany running a trade deficit in May for the first time in 30 years.

  So much for that argument that Europe has a positive cash flow statement and can’t/won’t break down because of it, c.f. my podcast from February with Peter Boockvar.

  But to understand why things are accelerating this quickly, beyond the Fed’s hawkishness, I think it’s high time we look at what China’s role in this is and will be.

  There’s been a lot of discussion about China’s lockdown policy since the beginning of the War in Ukraine.

  What did it mean? Are they seriously paranoid or was this their very Chinese way of supporting Russia’s efforts in Ukraine by exacerbating the massive supply chain breakdown created by Davos’ Coronapocalypse? You know I side with the latter position.

  So, after a successful BRICS Summit which saw both Iran and Argentina apply for member status (and China inviting Saudi Arabia to join it and the SCO), China announced a week ago they are loosening the COVID restrictions on foreign travelers into the country.

  China unexpectedly slashed quarantine times for international travelers, to just one week, which suggests Beijing is easing COVID zero policies. The nationwide relaxation of pandemic restrictions led investors to buy Chinese stocks.

  Inbound travelers will only quarantine for ten days, down from three weeks, which shows local authorities are easing draconian curbs on travel and economic activity as they worry about slumping economic growth sparked by restrictive COVID zero policies earlier this year that locked down Beijing and Shanghai for months (Shanghai finally lifted its lockdown measures on May 31).

  The result is, as Zerohedge pointed out at the time, the return of capital inflow to China’s equity markets on the announcement. But the markets had been forecasting capital flight into China for weeks since bottoming in April.

  

  That said, this is a perfect example of what I talk about all the time with respect to potential changes in the US political situation.  Markets are always looking for changes in intentions by the political class.  

  These little changes are seen by traders and investors as edges to be played.  They may not pan out, but are bets based on a probability calculation of a state change in public policy.

  To this end, Fungal Joe is going to lift the Trump tariffs on Chinese imports this week to buy votes by hoping inflation moderates. I’m okay with him doing this trying to right the ship. Tariffs are never the answer, just like sanctions. Notice also this has zero to do with monetary policy and everything to do with supply disruptions caused by government diktat.

  This change by China signals an intention by the CCP to open China back up to tourism and business development that isn’t likely to be reversed.  I expect this to be real and for China to make even more little moves like this as the summer drags on and markets churn in the West.

  With that change, capital inflow lessens the pressure on both the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) and the Hang Seng while giving China more cover to loosen monetary policy without necessarily raising rates and creates another place for capital to flow now that the ECB has capitulated.

  

  Christine Lagarde’s recent statements about fighting inflation being “more art than science” is just saying the quiet parts out loud. But it was what came out of the ECB’s emergency meeting a couple of weeks ago that finally signaled the end for the euro in the minds of investors.

  Not only is Germany’s industrial base being literally destroyed gleefully by its government, now the ECB is going to sell German debt to buy Italian and Spanish debt to keep from drowning. This is akin to bailing water out of one end of the boat only to throw it in the other end.

  Couple these things with the frankly, disastrous G-7 Summit where the biggest collection of unserious buffoons gathered to ban the sale of Russian gold and contemplate a global price cap on oil.

  … words fail me.

  Honestly, after this G-7 the rush into the BRICS Alliance as well the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will be unstoppable.  What serious investor with real capital appreciation goals is going to look at this group of committed (and committable) lunatics and think, “Yes! I can trust my money with Boris Johnson, Joe Biden and Ursula Von der Leyen!”

  No, they are looking at this crap and opening up Tradestation.  

  The fact that Justin Trudeau was even invited should have been your sell signal.

  While the BRICS were talking about a new trade settlement currency and adding members, the G-7 was talking World War III while getting caught spending more time on photo ops than substantive dialogue.

  Unserious people with sophomoric ideas and an antiquated sense of their global importance (especially true of the UK and Germany) is not a recipe for global capital inflow over the long term.

  When you look at the fragility of the EU, the UK, and Canada you realize that the only thing propping up global markets at this point is the hope that the U.S. mid-terms are a complete refutation of the Davos agenda.  

  If that doesn’t happen, if somehow Soros and Davos steal enough seats and put a bunch of RINOs back into Congress and the Senate to freeze any reform of Washington D.C. the collapse of the West will accelerate very quickly.

  Again, go back to what I said at the outset, the markets are looking for early indicators, edges, they can play to front run a big change in a country’s domestic/foreign policy.

  If the US has an honest political revolution in November replete with the stirrings of entitlement reform and fiscal sanity while the Fed continues raising rates, then that would be a massive buy signal for not only the US but also China.

  If not the US begins its collapse and happens for multiple reasons. 

  The first is obvious.  Insane Progressives and Commies will be emboldened to destroy what’s left of the Rule of Law in the US.: pack the SCOTUS, ban guns, etc.  

  That will send capital fleeing to relatively safe places like Pakistan.

  The second is almost as obvious.  It will confirm and solidify for a critical mass of people that the government is irredeemable and it’s time for either a new convention of States, per my recent conversation with Bill Fawell, or secession as the only real options left.

  Because when all peaceful means of revolt are taken away from people, violence ensues.

  While these evil people think they are unassailable, the reality is that they are not. If you doubt me, go look at video of the Dutch Farmer’s Revolution for confirmation of just how angry people truly are.

  None of the issues surrounding the Dems have worked at this point.

  No amount of SSRI-addled, known-to-law-enforcement-enabled shootings will roll out gun control in the US.

  No amount of screeching from unfuckable purple-hairs will bring back Roe v. Wade.

  No amount of sexual deviance at the public schools will usher in legalized pedophilia.

  These are the positions Democrats have staked their future as a party on and most of America is sincerely fed up with it while their businesses are looted, their bank accounts are emptied and their kids sexually-assaulted at school by strippers.

  This is why I fully expect voter fraud costs to soar this November and for the 2000(00) Mules strategy to fail as a result. Proud Boys and Oathkeepers will gladly stand outside drop boxes looking for some douchebag with a handful of fake ballots to “question.”

  This means they will just print votes out of thin air, but they can only really do that in places like California.  

  China opening back up for business is good news.  Ending COVID restrictions are necessary to shifting the flow of capital from mattresses back into the global economy.   But it won’t happen fast enough without a political revolution in the US to stave off a year or two of messy activity as supply chains reroute.

  If China opens up more and the mid-terms are a blowout for normal people there is ample room for the Fed to keep going higher with rates from a US gov’t budget perspective.  A good article recently from Wolf Street reminds us (and me) that only new debt is subject to the higher rates the Fed is now charging.

  We have historically low debt servicing costs.

  

  The budget is still a mess and it’s why entitlement reform is the key political issue going forward.  So, if Soros wins this fall and Davos remains firmly in control of Washington, then there is no hope for America’s future as a 50-state compact.  They will burn the rest of this country to the ground before giving up control of it.

  

  Even if the mid-terms go well, the transition period before the new Congress is sat will be horrific.

  Between now and then expect them to push a NATO casus belli in Ukraine on us to try and save Biden’s Depends budget, Johnson’s terrible hair and Scholz’s saggy man boobs.

  This is how they will counter China moving to attract capital, by starting another war. 

  The problem for all of them is that China ultimately wins either way.  All they will do is delay the inevitable because as I pointed out the other day, there isn’t the productive capacity TODAY to fight a two-front war in Europe and the Pacific.  

  If NATO moves on Russia, China will move on Taiwan. The Russians are salivating at the prospect of the Brits coming in to fight them in Ukraine to free up the US to take on China.

  And the West will lose both wars simultaneously, on the off-chance the whole thing doesn’t go nuclear. I do believe pushing the US into political crisis is the ultimate Davos play here.  The problem is, since Putin moved on Ukraine the way he did, there is no pulling that off without atomizing Europe in the process.

  So, for once, Davos is staring at a Hobson’s Choice rather than their victims. That Vlad, what a card!

  China doesn’t want war with the US anymore than Russia does.  So opening up China’s economy and Biden lifting tariffs here are the right capital-attracting moves to force even more instability on Europe.  

  If we avoid WWIII, along with the Fed putting Congress in a fiscal straightjacket, then we can effect real political change in the US

  Everyone wins.

  I do believe this is the single most important point every other analyst has missed over the past couple of years.  The point of beating Davos is to stop WWIII, stop the messy dissolution of the US which would be a catastrophe for everyone, and end the cycle of violence which has emanated from the European colonial powers for centuries.

  The US can survive this fiscally and politically.  The SCOTUS just flipped off the commies.  The people are rejecting woke anti-storytelling like Lightyear and nearly everything Netflix and Amazon produce.

  Seen recently in the Financial Times, even Blackrock is seeing the light.

  

  This tells me that Blackrock’s balance sheet is in serious trouble.  It tells me their AUM is falling and their ESG/DEI strategy is gutting the company from within.  I wouldn’t doubt for a second that Larry Fink bet the farm on Obama/Schwab getting rid of Powell and now they are staring at a collapse as Powell says, “My turn.”

  For all of their power, this is still a company with just $36 billion in shareholder equity. Apple sells that many iPhones in 2 months.

  

  I’d love nothing more than to see Blackrock become the next Lehman Moment.  I’m sure most of Wall St. wouldn’t either.  There is blood in the water folks and the sharks are circling Europe. Maybe Jamie Dimon will change his middle name to Bruce just to make the point clear to everyone.

  I’m sad I gave up popcorn.

  *  *  *

  Join my Patreon if you like Popcorn

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 21:25

• Mass Shooting By Two Illegal Immigrants In Richmond Foiled by Tipster: Police
  Mass Shooting By Two Illegal Immigrants In Richmond Foiled by Tipster: Police

  Police claim a tip from a concerned citizen foiled a planned mass shooting at an evening July 4th celebration at a packed Richmond amphitheater.

  Now, 52-year-old Julio Alvardo-Dubon and 38-year-old Rolman A. Balacarcel sit in the Richmond city jail, each initially charged with being a non-U.S. citizen in possession of a firearm. Both are Guatemalans in the United States illegally, and it’s been claimed at least one has already been deported multiple times.

  

  Apparently reflecting the fact that he was only charged with illegal possession, Alvardo-Dubon’s bond was set at just $15,000, and it isn’t clear if he’s already been released, according to the Associated Press. There’s no report yet of Balacarcel’s bond.  

  At a Wednesday afternoon press conference, Richmond police chief Gerald Smith credited a “hero” citizen who called police after overhearing a conversation about a planned mass murder at the city’s July 4th celebration at Dogwood Dell, a 2,400-seat amphitheater in the city’s Byrd Park. 

  “There’s no telling how many lives this citizen saved with one phone call,” Smith said. The tip came in on July 1. That same day, police proceeded to a residence on the 1000 block of Columbia Avenue.

  Smith said Alvarado-Dubon consented to police entering without a warrant. “Once inside that residence, they saw evidence in plain view that corroborated the witness’s statement,” said Smith, who later specified that the evidence was “firearms in plain view.”    

  Under advice from the Department of Homeland Security, police arrested Alvarado-Dubon for being an alien in possession of a firearm, and seized two assault rifles, one handgun and hundreds of rounds of ammunition.

  

  Richmond police then put surveillance on Balacarcel, whom Smith described as Alvardo-Dubon’s roommate. On July 5, police concluded they had probable cause to arrest Balacarcel on the same charge, and did so near Charlottesville, Virginia. 

  “Their intent was to conduct a mass shooting at our Fourth of July celebration,” said Smith, who gave no indication that police found specific evidence of the plot, or that either of the two confessed to it. 

  

  A motive has not yet been identified, nor have police determined how the duo acquired the weapons. Smith said neither had a record of previous engagements with Richmond police.   

   

  A reporter at the press conference said his sources indicate at least one of the two has been deported multiple times, asked Smith how he felt about it. “It can be frustrating when things like that occur, that people who shouldn’t actually be here are criminals [and] actually continue to be able to do those types of things.”  

  

    

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 21:05

• Investors Take Bitcoin Off Exchanges As Crypto Winter Settles In
  Investors Take Bitcoin Off Exchanges As Crypto Winter Settles In

  By Immanual John Milton, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and reporter

  As the crypto winter deepens, only the staunchest Bitcoin investors are still holding onto their tokens — but not on the exchanges.
  Investors in the world’s biggest cryptocurrency are going into hibernation mode with on-chain activity dropping by 13% in early July from November’s highs — levels last seen in the bear phases of 2018 and 2019 when Bitcoin was worth less than $10,000 — according to a Glassnode analysis.

  The risk-off market mood is spreading to the cryptocurrency exchanges as investors withdraw and stow their coins off-line in crypto wallets instead. The exchanges have seen their balances drop more than 20% from a Jan. 20 peak, according to Glassnode.

  “Bitcoin has seen a near complete expulsion of market tourists, leaving the resolve of HODLers as the last line standing,” according to a Glassnode newsletter dated July 4. Bitcoin fell below $20,000 last month for the first time since 2020.

  While several activity levels — a demand indicator — have trended downward in recent weeks, there still appears to be a stable holder base, as prices hover around $20,000. HODLers — stalwart investors who refuse to sell — are evident as Glassnode says relatively flat transaction activity shows continued Bitcoin consolidation.

  

  Key levels to watch for Bitcoin are $18,910, a level that prices have dipped below twice in mid-June, and $21,557, around its late-June highs, according to Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler Companies.

  “There’s no fundamentals for crypto, of course. It’s just purely price action,” Johnson said in an interview on Friday. “You’re just going to look at this and say, until you break out of that range — up or down — you are not going to make any conclusion that there’s a trend change yet. We’re just short-term consolidating in the context of a longer-term downtrend.”

  A close above $26,000 or $28,000 could finally put a stop to the downward slide the token has been on since April, Johnson said.

  The rout in Bitcoin has hit Coinbase Global Inc. the hardest as the exchange saw a drop of 450,000 Bitcoin over the last two years. Binance, which recently partnered with TikTok creator Khaby Lame and soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo, has seen an increase of 300,000 Bitcoin over the same timespan, making it the most popular Bitcoin exchange, per Glassnode and TXMC.

  Recent breaks in operations, such as Coinflex’s and Vauld’s pause in withdrawals and CoinLoan’s reduction in withdrawal amounts, have decreased investor trust in exchanges. Illiquid supply increased by 223,000 Bitcoin in June as investors migrated funds to wallets from exchanges, according to Glassnode data. Of that 223,000, large-scale crypto holders made up much of that outflow from the exchanges as they withdrew over 140,000 tokens in June. These whales have been responsible for exchange outflows of almost 8.7 million, or over 40% of the global supply of Bitcoin.

  “The Bitcoin bear is in full swing, and in its wake, the HODLers of last resort are the last ones standing,” Glassnode said.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 20:45

• What Does It Take To Be Wealthy In America?
  What Does It Take To Be Wealthy In America?

  The goalposts of wealth are always shifting due to inflation and other factors.

  For example, someone with a net worth of $1 million several decades ago would have been considered very wealthy. However, as Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu details below, according to recent survey results, however, $1 million is only enough to feel “financially comfortable” today.

  In this infographic, Visual Capitalist has visualized several money milestones to give you a better idea of what it really takes to be wealthy in America.

  

  Net Worth Milestones

  This table lists the data used in the above infographic.

  It covers data on what it takes to get into the top one percent for wealth in key states, along with broader survey results about what net worth thresholds must be crossed in order to be considered “comfortable financially” or even “wealthy”.

  

   

  According to Charles Schwab’s Modern Wealth Survey, a net worth of $774,000 is needed to feel “financially comfortable”, while $2.2 million is needed to be considered “wealthy”.

  Both of these milestones are far greater than the average (median) American’s wealth, which according to the Federal Reserve, was $122,000 in 2019.

  Joining the One Percent

  Research by Knight Frank determined that in order to be a member of America’s one percent, one would need a net worth of $4.4 million. This is very high compared to other developed countries such as Japan ($1.5 million), the UK ($1.8 million), and Australia ($2.8 million).

  The difference is partly due to America’s large population of ultra high net worth individuals, which includes the country’s 724 billionaires. See below for a list of the top five countries by number of billionaires.

  

   

  Source: World Population Review (As of 2021)

  Focusing again on the U.S., we can also see large discrepancies at the individual state level. Entry into California’s one percent requires a net worth of $6.8 million, which is 62% higher than the national average.

  California is famously home to many of the world’s richest people, including Google co-founder Larry Page, and Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg.

  Being a one percenter in Mississippi, on the other hand, requires $766,000. That’s 83% lower than the national average, and just a tad lower than the amount needed to be “financially comfortable” by the average American. This is partially due to Mississippi’s poverty rate of 19.6%, which according to the U.S. Census Bureau, is the highest in the country.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 20:25

• Republicans Looking To Tighten Eligibility For State Primaries
  Republicans Looking To Tighten Eligibility For State Primaries

  Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Republicans in Texas and elsewhere are considering closing primaries to limit what they say is Democratic meddling.

  

  One of the Texas GOP’s top legislative priorities includes closing primaries to stop Democrat interference. It is part of a sweeping measure calling on the state legislature to enhance election integrity while combating voter fraud.

  The idea also appears in a platform “plank” to prevent liberal Democrats crossing over so they can “move the Republican Party to the left.”

  Some Republicans point to stories of Democrats playing spoiler in Texas primaries as a concern.

  

  In February, an Austin woman quoted in a Texas Public Radio story admitted she and others crossed over to vote in the Republican primary to cause chaos.

  “Let’s get these guys to a primary runoff. Let’s make them burn their war chest money before they face Democrats in November,” K. Monroe told Texas Public Radio.

  In other states such as Colorado, Democrats ran ads for MAGA candidates, hoping to knock out more moderate Republicans during primary races.

  Republicans in Georgia are talking about closing their primary because more than 80,000 people who voted Democratic in the past voted in their primary.

  In Texas, State Rep. Cecil Bell (R-Magnolia), who serves parts of Montgomery and Waller counties outside of Houston, told The Epoch Times crossover voting isn’t an issue in his district. But that doesn’t mean it hasn’t caused problems in larger metropolitan areas.

  

  “I know there are people who are very concerned about closing our primaries,” Bell said. “Election integrity is a high priority to all Texans and Americans.”

  Cal Jillson, professor of political science at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, told The Epoch Times that registered voters may cast a vote in a Republican or Democratic Texas primary.

  However, voters must stick with the party they selected. If someone voted in the Democratic primary race, that person couldn’t switch back and vote in a Republican primary runoff, for example.

  Jillson said the idea behind Republicans closing their primary would be limiting “Republicans In Name Only” candidates and ensuring office-seekers are true to Republican values. But he pointed out that cross-voting may be more of a perceived threat than an actual one.

  Republicans are unlikely to go through with closing their primary at this point because they dominate statewide elections.

  “The Republicans haven’t lost a statewide race in Texas since 1994,” Jillson said.”When you’re winning, why would you change the game?”

  Using definitions developed by Ballotpedia and the National Confederation of State Legislatures, Texas and 14 other states have open primaries. Nine have closed ones, and the remainder falls somewhere in between.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 20:05

• Corporate Media Insists Eating Insects Is "Really Delicious" 
  Corporate Media Insists Eating Insects Is “Really Delicious” 

  The World Economic Forum (WEF) has, for years, promoted the idea that “healthy diets” and “sustainable” foods, such as insects, should be introduced into the global food system to save the planet.  

  These self-proclaimed designers of the future are calling for a reset of the food system to lessen the environmental impact of current food production and solve world hunger. They’re trying to convince people to eat bugs.

  The latest sign insect farming is about to takeoff is a South African chemical engineer by the name of Wendy Vesela found ways to transform spiky green and black caterpillars into flour that can be used in biscuits, sweet chocolate protein bars, cereals or smoothies, according to AFP News. 

  

  Vesela insisted that edible bugs and worms are “a healthier protein option.”

  

  She said people are hesitant to eat insects but ground up and packaged into a protein bar or other foods — people find it “really delicious.” 

  Worm Pizza 

  

  Worm Chocolate 

  

  AFP spoke with dietitian, Mpho Tshukudu, who said eating insects is a better source of protein. 

  “It’s high in protein, in essential fats and minerals, especially iron. It has more iron than the most expensive piece of steak,” Tshukudu said.

  Vesela said she plans to expand her business as the demand for edible insects is expected to increase amid inflation making meat unaffordable for many. 

  With record-high prices and looming food shortages, the Rockefeller Foundation recently warned that a “massive, immediate food crisis” is on the horizon.

  One commenter on AFP’s article stated: “This is a concerted effort to get people to eat bugs rather than animal protein.” 

  We agree with the commenter and also must add: 

  you will own nothing and eat insects https://t.co/1yV2hMnnYJ

  — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 7, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 19:45

• Most Americans Say Federal Government Actions Are Hurting Them: Poll
  Most Americans Say Federal Government Actions Are Hurting Them: Poll

  Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  A new poll shows that a majority of Americans feel that federal government actions over the past six months have hurt their families and that President Joe Biden’s policies have not benefited the middle class at all.

  

  The Monmouth University poll, released on July 5, reveals that the number of Americans who are struggling financially has jumped by double digits in the past year as soaring inflation has outpaced wage gains and sparked a cost-of-living crisis.

  “Economic concerns tend to rise to the top of the list of family concerns, as you might expect, but the singular impact of inflation is really hitting home right now,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

  “Most Americans are blaming Washington for their current pain,” he added.

  The poll, which was carried out on a representative sample of 978 adults in the United States, shows that a majority (57 percent) said that the actions of the federal government over the past six months have hurt their family when it comes to their key concern.

  This is the first time ever in the history of Monmouth polling that the share of Americans blaming Washington for making their chief concern worse has climbed above 50 percent. Prior polls saw that figure vary between 34 percent and 47 percent.

  A mere 8 percent said federal government policies have helped them while 34 percent said Washington actions have not had a meaningful impact when it comes to their main concern, the poll also shows.

  

  Commenting on the findings of the poll was Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who said in a Twitter post, “People are beginning to understand that those $1200 stimmy checks were the cheese in the trap.”

  Like Massie, critics of the Biden administration’s policies often blame unprecedented levels of federal stimulus and the Federal Reserve’s easy money policies for stoking consumer demand while doing little to bolster supply, pushing up prices.

  Inflation has been running at a 40-year high in the United States, with the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showing prices rising at 8.6 percent in annual terms.

  Alternate measures of inflation, however, put this figure much higher. Economist John Williams, who calculates a version of the CPI using the same methodology the government used before 1980, puts the latest figure at 16.8 percent, a 75-year high.

  Inflation and High Gas Prices Key Worries

  Inflation has become the biggest concern facing American families, with 33 percent identifying this as their chief worry, the poll shows. This is a sharp increase over prior Monmouth polling, which put the figure in a range between 5 percent and 14 percent.

  High gas prices follow in second place, with 15 percent identifying this as their main concern. This, too, is up from prior polls.

  Gasoline prices have been trending down over the past several weeks and on July 6 the national average stood at $4.779 per gallon, according to the AAA. Still, they remain near historical highs and around $1.50 higher than a year ago.

  Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson, said that the recent downtrend could reverse as the summertime peak driving season rolls around.

  “Domestic gasoline demand dipped recently, which took some of the pressure off of pump prices. About 80 percent of stations are now selling regular for under $5 a gallon,” Gross said in a statement.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 19:25

• Real-Time Indicator Shows Manhattan Housing Market Quickly Cooling
  Real-Time Indicator Shows Manhattan Housing Market Quickly Cooling

  Appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate wrote in a new report that Manhattan’s residential market showed signs of cooling after a post-lockdown buying surge.

  Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, said a “spike in interest rates, inflation, economic uncertainty, and the war in Ukraine” has resulted in a plunge in newly signed contracts between April and June. Newly signed contracts jumped to 1.4k in March as the 30Y mortgage began to soar. Shortly after, costlier mortgages curtailed buyers, and new contracts tumbled to as low as 923 in June. 

  

  “This is a quick pivot from an overachieving market to a market that’s being challenged by an unprecedented amount of uncertainty,” Miller said. The sharp downturn in newly signed contracts is part of prospective homebuyers heading to the sidelines because of turmoil in stocks, bonds, and crypto, interest rate increases, and mounting fears of an imminent recession.

  This uncertainty has translated into fewer bidding wars, slumping signed contracts, and price reductions on listings as inventory gradually builds. 

  Manhattan’s decline in newly signed contracts comes as the median sales price for the second quarter increased to a record $1.25 million. 

  “Contracts are the best real-time indicator of market performance,” Garrett Derderian, director of market intelligence at brokerage Serhant, told Bloomberg. He believes third-quarter contract figures “will be bleaker.” 

  It appears that the slowdown in Manhattan’s residential market accelerated into June and could easily lead to slowing sales in all boroughs. 

  McKenzie Ryan, a top New York broker with Douglas Elliman, told CNBC the number of buyers showing up for open houses has fallen off a cliff. She said an April listing attracted 31 people to the house. A similar listing she held last month only brought in four people. 

  “My clients in tech are just bracing right now for whatever happens … Some people have seen a steep loss in wealth since the start of the year,” Ryan said. 

  The signs of a shift are still early, though it could soon indicate Manhattan’s residential market is set to peak, then reverse. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 19:05

• Biden's Green Agenda Is Causing US Power Grid To Be "Incredibly Vulnerable"
  Biden’s Green Agenda Is Causing US Power Grid To Be “Incredibly Vulnerable”

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Every U.S. region could be at risk for significant power outages this summer as companies rush to convert to non-fossil fuel and non-nuclear energy sources, an analyst says.

  

  “I think the entire country is incredibly vulnerable, because the entire country is facing a huge energy shortage and I don’t think there is any place that is truly safe,” Daniel Turner, founder and executive director of Power the Future, told Fox News on July 4.

  Turner said that states that have caved to pressure to switch to “green energy” sources, including wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, could suffer this year.

  “The areas of the country I’d be most concerned about are the ones that already have inherent weaknesses,” he told the outlet. “Texas, California, New Mexico, New York, all of New England. These are areas whose policies and political decisions have weakened their electric grid.”

  Countries and U.S. states that have “pushed green energy mandates by government action” haven’t been successful, he said.

  “And you can measure that on multiple levels of success, in terms of what they’ve actually purported to or claim that they would produce in terms of electricity, reliability, cost,” he added. “In terms of actual construction, or cost to the consumers.”

  Midwest States

  Earlier this year, some power companies, grid operators, and other groups have warned about brownouts and rolling blackouts—especially in the Midwestern states.

  “A recent generation capacity auction has revealed that the Midwest could fall short of needed generation capacity to serve the summer peak load under certain conditions,” the SouthEastern Illinois Electrical Cooperative wrote in a recent letter. “In the event that this happens, your Cooperative would be directed to disconnect a portion of the load in order to prevent an electric grid failure.”

  Amid possible shortfalls, some Michigan firms have called on consumers to tell officials to keep power companies online.

  “We need your help to keep the lights on in Michigan this summer and beyond,” Thumb Electric Cooperative General Manager Dallas Braun wrote on Facebook in a recent post. “Electric reliability is at risk today and demand is projected to grow. As soon as this WEEK Michigan regulators are considering closing down more power plants in Michigan. Please join ME in telling them that reliability matters and that they shouldn’t prematurely close these plants.”

  Meanwhile, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s (MISO) seasonal assessment said that Michigan could face power shortages this year, according to JT Smith, MISO’s executive director, in media interviews last month and in May.

  His group’s seasonal assessment warned that “capacity shortfalls in both the north and central regions of MISO and leaving those areas at increased risk of temporary, controlled outages to preserve the integrity of the bulk electric system,” Smith told NPR.

  MISO, meanwhile, will take steps to implement controlled power outages across Michigan. That’s a step the operator has never taken before, it said.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 18:45

• Tesla China Sales For June Come In At About 78,000 Vehicles, Up 142% Sequentially
  Tesla China Sales For June Come In At About 78,000 Vehicles, Up 142% Sequentially

  While Tesla’s Q2 deliveries in the U.S. fell short of expectations, it looks like the company is heading into Q3 with momentum in China.

  Tesla sold about 78,000 China-made cars in June, up 142% from May, according to Street Insider, who cited preliminary data announced by the China Passenger Car Association early this week. 

  The company sold 32,165 cars in China in May, the report notes. In sum, EVs are seeing momentum in China for the month of June, as the country begins re-opening (again). 1.926 million passenger cars have been sold in China in June, the report says, which is a 22% rise from last year. 

   

  As we noted yesterday, after Tesla’s big Q2 deliveries miss and despite the fact that the company recorded its best production for June in history, analysts are souring on the name. The latest investment bank to lower its price target on Tesla has been JP Morgan, who said yesterday that shares could fall 40% from current levels. 

  “Expansion into higher volume segments with lower price points seems fraught with greater risk relative to demand, execution and competition,” a note from JP Morgan analysts said on Tuesday, according to Reuters. 

  The note continued: “There may be reason to believe that production, and financial results, could be being impacted also by company-specific execution issues at the company’s new factories in Austin and Berlin.” 

  The investment bank then cut its price target on the company from $395 to $385 – about a 40% drop from the stock’s current levels close to $680 per share. 

  JP Morgan’s price target is considerably lower than the Refinitiv median price target, which stands at $950. 

  Recall, Tesla was out over the weekend said that it delivered just 254,695 vehicles for Q2 2022, as the company hit snags due to its Shanghai shutdown and supply chain issues.

  

  Despite this, the company’s June month was the highest vehicle production month in Tesla’s history, according to Bloomberg. The company’s deliveries represent a 26.7% gain in deliveries from last year and a drop from last quarter’s record of 310,048. 

  The drop marked the lowest delivery quarter since Q3 2021 for Model 3/Y vehicles. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 18:25

• US Deploys F-35 Stealth Fighters To South Korea For Joint Military Drills
  US Deploys F-35 Stealth Fighters To South Korea For Joint Military Drills

  Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

  The United States deployed six F-35A stealth fighters to South Korea for joint military drills to demonstrate U.S.-South Korea deterrence amid North Korea’s growing nuclear threat.

  

  The six aircraft departed from the Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska on Tuesday.

  The U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) said they would join several other U.S. and South Korean aircraft, including South Korea’s F-35As, during the 10-day military drills involving “familiarization and routine training flights.”

  F-35s bolster US-ROK #Alliance in the sky
  Details: https://t.co/RTfx78i0Zo#같이납시다 | #WeFlyTogether@ROK_MND | @USEmbassySeoul pic.twitter.com/tmu4TKes7H

  — U.S. Forces Korea (@USForcesKorea) July 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  “The aircraft plan to operate over the Republic of Korea and surrounding waters off the coasts during the scheduled 10-day training mission,” the USFK said in a statement, referring to South Korea’s official name.

  South Korea’s Defense Ministry said the purpose was to demonstrate the two allies’ “strong deterrence and combined defense posture,” as well as “to improve interoperability between the two air forces,” Yonhap News Agency reported.

  This follows an agreement between President Joe Biden and his South Korean counterpart, Yoon Suk-yeol, in May to initiate talks on expanding joint military drills on the Korean Peninsula and reinforcing the combined defense posture.

  During their meeting, Biden reaffirmed the U.S. extended deterrence commitment to South Korea “using the full range of U.S. defense capabilities, including nuclear, conventional, and missile defense capabilities.”

  The two leaders condemned North Korea’s resumption of nuclear tests as a “grave threat” to the world while remaining open to dialogue with Pyongyang.

  Trilateral Alliance

  North Korea’s nuclear threats have prompted South Korea to boost cooperation with both the U.S. and Japan.

  On June 29, the three countries’ leaders met on the sidelines of the NATO summit and discussed the need to enhance “trilateral cooperation” against Pyongyang.

  The North Korean Foreign Ministry denounced the tripartite alliance as a means to materialize the U.S.’s plan to form a military alliance similar to NATO in the Asia-Pacific region, Pyongyang’s official news agency reported.

  “The reality clearly shows that the real purpose of the U.S. spreading the rumor about ‘threat from North Korea’ is to provide an excuse for attaining military supremacy over the Asia-Pacific region including the Korean Peninsula, and furthermore, the rest of the world,” it stated.

  “The prevailing situation more urgently calls for building up the country’s defenses to actively cope with the rapid aggravation of the security environment of the Korean Peninsula and the rest of the world,” the ministry added.

  Pyongyang has conducted 18 missile launches involving 33 ballistic missiles since the beginning of the year, and Washington anticipated that it could conduct a seventh nuclear test at “any time.”

  The United States has been urging a return to a dialogue with North Korea, which Pyongyang has ignored because of what it says are the United States and its allies’ hostile policies.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 18:05

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Gazprom Head Proposes Rubles For LNG Scheme
  Gazprom Head Proposes Rubles For LNG Scheme

  Russian gas producer Gazprom PJSC proposed to expand the rubles-for-gas scheme to liquified natural gas (LNG), the Interfax news agency quoted Kirill Polous, head of Gazprom’s long-term development department.

  Polous, who spoke at a State Duma Energy Committee round table at which Russia’s Energy Strategy for the next three decades was discussed, proposed that customers pay rubles for its LNG exports. 

  “Pipeline gas is sold to European counter-parties from unfriendly states for rubles, but such measures don’t apply to LNG,” he told the State Duma Energy Committee. “Thus, there is already some kind of currency competition between Russian pipeline gas and LNG supplies.”

  

  President Putin has declared that all “unfriendly” countries buying Russian natural gas fulfill their payments in roubles. This has been a significant problem for the European Union, which gets an estimated 40% of its NatGas from Russia. 

  Russia already runs the ruble-for-gas payment system for the natural gas it sends to Europe via pipeline. Gazprom has already stopped supplying gas to countries and companies refusing to bow to the rubles demand—Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, as well as customers in the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany.

  Many European companies have set up accounts in rubles at Gazprombank to comply with Putin’s demand. Nevertheless, Gazprom slashed pipeline supply to Germany and Italy in the middle of June, claiming “technical reasons” and saying Western sanctions prevent a gas turbine being repaired in Canada from returning to Russia in time. Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi dismissed this explanation, describing the Russian reasons for the reduced flows as “lies.”

  With low supply from Russia and Nord Stream up for a two-week maintenance this month, Europe scrambles to fill gas storage in time for the winter. –OilPrice.com 

  The move has made the rouble the world’s best-performing currency this year, despite Western sanctions aimed at crippling Moscow. 

  Polous’ proposal comes as Russia seized operations of the Sakhalin-2 LNG plant last week. Putin has signed an order to create a new firm to take over Sakhalin Energy Investment Co.

  Russia accounts for 8% of the global LNG supply, with the bulk of it consumed in Asia. In Europe, Spain is one of the largest buyers of Russian LNG.

  Moscow could easily extend the rouble scheme to other exports, including oil, grain, fertilizers, coal, metals, and other key commodities, boosting the currency’s value and bringing in more cash. A larger amount of roubles demanded in international markets to purchase Russian commodities is Moscow’s way of challenging US dollar dominance in global trade. 

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 02:45

• Luongo: Why Joe Biden Refuses To Back Off Ukraine
  Luongo: Why Joe Biden Refuses To Back Off Ukraine

  Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

  Over the weekend I was asked by Sputnik News to comment on why President Biden was so set on supporting Ukraine against Russia with money and weapons despite abysmal approval ratings and a fiscal budget hole that widens daily.

  Here’s a link to the article Sputnik published. They give me pretty much the second half of the article.

  Meanwhile, American geopolitical analyst Tom Luongo remarked that the ongoing conflict in the eastern European nation is nothing more than a “war between civilizations,” in US neoconservatives’ efforts to “forestall Russia taking control of Ukraine.”

  Touching on Washington officials’ motives behind the ever-increasing aid to Kiev, Luongo told Sputnik that the American president, “as a proxy for the oligarchs in Davos, is acting on their behalf to ultimately weaken the US by sending weapons overseas and destroying US leadership and credibility.”

  

  The short answer is what I’ve been saying for nearly three years now, The Davos Crowd wants the US destroyed and it is working from within and without our government to achieve that goal. Biden’s staunch support of Ukraine fits that thesis perfectly.

  As I wrote about in my last article, depleting US and Western weapons stockpiles while exposing to the world the vulnerability of manufacturing is a key data point for the Global South to stand up publicly and defy Biden and Davos on any further attempts to isolate Russia.

  I have to think, at a certain level, Biden is so out of touch with reality that he actually believes the sanctions are working and that Putin’s regime is going to collapse any time now. He’s as likely in the dark about the reality of the real situation as UAF army regulars fighting in the Donbass were about the real war, rather than the propaganda they were being fed.

  Between now and the midterms you can expect further acceleration of the Davos agenda in D.C. Spending billions supporting Ukraine is yet another way to try to push the Fed into not raising rates any farther.

  It’s a pathetic billion here, billion there. So, it’s truly irrelevant, but it shows the utter desperation of their position. If anything, these latest announced tranches of support are simply a mix of good ol’ fashioned payola to keep certain people quiet and a last grab at the till before it all gets shut down.

  I know there are storm clouds of war on the horizon, and it’s clear that many within NATO are simply trying to draw out the fighting in Eastern Ukraine until such time that the West can counterstrike against Russia and drive her back.

  Personally, I can’t see that strategy having any real support outside of the room where George Soros rails in his narcissistic dementia, but hey, that’s just me talking.

  As always, thanks to Olga at Sputnik for her questions and here is the full text of what I sent to them.

  This is yet more US funding for Ukraine. What are the motives behind continuously fueling Ukraine with money and military assistance?

  It is a deep-seated need by neoconservatives to forestall Russia taking control of Ukraine. This conflict is a war between civilizations. Biden, as a proxy for the oligarchs in Davos, is acting on their behalf to ultimately weaken the U.S. by sending weapons overseas and destroying U.S. leadership and credibility.

  This will only end when there is a real political revolution in the U.S.

  This comes amid an economic crisis, Biden’s plummeting approval ratings and other hot issues in the US. Why is the Biden administration so focused on the conflict overseas instead of fixing problems at home?

  He was put in charge to destroy the U.S. Biden and his administration are vandals. They are not acting in the U.S.’s best interests but have subordinated our public policy to the wishes of foreign powers. Too many conservatives want to align the DNC with China, but it’s clear that while China is helping erode the political cohesiveness of the U.S. it is Davos and their Climate Change/technocracy agenda that is pulling all the strings.

  Why is the US not spending this money subsidizing the energy sector, for example, to maintain the country’s energy security and protect its citizens?

  This question answers itself. The U.S. is being run by traitors. I wish it was more complicated than that. But it isn’t.

  How long can the US economy afford to sponsor Washington’s ambitions?

  Not much longer. This is why, at this late date, in my opinion, there is sincere and seriously organized pushback coming from the most unlikely place, some of the U.S. megabanks and the Federal Reserve, who is aggressively tightening monetary policy to drain the world of dollars and break both the offshore (Euro)dollar markets and put China’s financial partners, namely Hong Kong, under sincere pressure.

  If the Fed doesn’t do this now, the odds of a political disintegration of the U.S. by the end of the decade rise dramatically.

  Where does this massive funding package come from? Where does the US get the money for this huge amount?

  For this year, from money already allocated, but ultimately Congress has to sell debt into the market which either has to be bought domestically, internationally or monetized by the Fed.

  The Fed is raising rates to stop the money spigot in D.C. by forcing Congress to act more responsibly. Think of these spending allocations and pledges, like the $600 billion for global infrastructure to thwart China’s Belt and Road Initiative as attempts at blackmailing a reluctant Fed to monetize debt the world no longer wants to buy.

  The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta warned that the US GDP might decrease 1% in second quarter of 2022. This could mean the start of a recession. How high are the chances of a large-scale economic collapse in the wake of this?

  There is a large gulf between a recession and ‘large-scale economic collapse.’ The Fed can and should do what its doing to force resolutions on many outstanding geopolitical issues and imbalances. If it’s going to ‘act globally’ this is how is should do so, by taking away the punchbowl of offshore USD-based credit, Eurodollars, and regain control over its own monetary policy.

  If that process causes a severe contraction and economic dislocation in the U.S. economy for a year or two that is the price one must pay to balance the books from the previous inflationary boom. I think the worst of those effects on the US economy will be blunted by the complete collapse of the European economy and sovereign debt markets, however. It won’t last forever, two maybe three years, but it will be enough time to effect real political change. We’ll know at this year’s mid-term elections what the American people really think about these things.

  Tyler Durden
  Wed, 07/06/2022 – 02:00

• How The Media Used Russiagate Conspiracy Theories To Create A News Cartel
  How The Media Used Russiagate Conspiracy Theories To Create A News Cartel

  Authored by Daniel Greenfield via The Gatestone Institute,

  In the fall of 2019, Facebook announced that it would be writing selected media outlets some very big checks. The launch of Facebook News was billed as a way to give consumers more access to information, but it was actually an attempt at appeasing big media companies.

  

  (Photo by Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images)

  Facebook, with its older and more conservative user base, had become the epicenter of election conspiracies from the Clinton campaign and its media allies. While Hillary Clinton and her associates were eager to shift the blame for her defeat by relaunching their existing Russiagate smears with false claims that Russian Facebook ads had tilted the election to Donald Trump, the media’s obsession with Facebook was even more corruptly self-interested.

  About a third of Americans regularly get their news through Facebook. The tech giant’s algorithms had the ability to make or break the news media, and would go on to break the digital media empires of the Huffington Post, BuzzFeed, and others in the lefty clickbait brigade.

  While Hillary wanted someone to blame for her failures, the media wanted leverage over the company that controlled its fate. The invention of a “fake news” or “misinformation” crisis, the term that the media pivoted to once President Trump made “fake news” his own, was used to persuade Big Tech companies to censor conservatives and promote media content.

  Facebook News was a walled garden that pushed the content of the major papers behind Russiagate conspiracies and misinformation alarmism while profiting massively from it. The Russiagate Facebook conspiracy theories provided the rationale for censoring conservatives and for rewarding the media outlets spreading them with special promotions and lots of money.

  The Wall Street Journal reports that Facebook paid over $20 million to the New York Times and $15 million to the Washington Post in annual fees. Even more valuable than the big checks was Facebook’s ability to push media content to its users. Last year, sources at several publishers were crediting Facebook News with massive traffic surges, but not everyone was equal.

  “Many other U.S. news publishers are getting payments from Facebook to have their content featured in its news tab, but they only get a fraction of the sums paid to the Washington Post, the New York Times,” the Wall Street Journal noted.

  Facebook and the media had created a cartel in which media sites created paywalls to raise the value of their content and gain better deals with the social media monopoly. Zuckerberg’s company offered its biggest media critics big checks in exchange for exclusive deals. Both sides claimed that they were “fighting misinformation” with what was really a shakedown and a cartel.

  Now that the deal between Big Tech and Big Media is set to lapse, there’s panic in the presses.

  In 2020, Zuckerberg had cut out the media middleman by influencing the election directly through the hundreds of millions in “Zuckerbucks” that were handed out to local election offices in primarily Democrat areas, effectively “privatizing” a national presidential election.

  Rather than continue to hand out tens of millions to top media outlets, Facebook’s CEO had written a much bigger check to atone for 2016 and put the Russia fake news smear to bed.

  That’s bad news for the media.

  From its “Meta” renaming to the departure of COO Sheryl Sandberg to the algorithm shifts deprioritizing politics, Facebook is trying to leave the 2016 election behind. Zuckerberg is scrambling for a future for the company in virtual reality headsets and the “Metaverse,” and imitating TikTok’s short video clips, away from the former titular company’s core product.

  Meanwhile, Facebook has reported its first sizable loss of users ever.

  The Facebook News walled garden going away would be bad news for the privileged media outlets who secured it using a shakedown campaign that depends on conspiracy theories involving the 2016 election. And the panic over the end of the dirty deal in media circles also shows how their election lies were incentivized by the need to create this corrupt arrangement.

  When the media accused Facebook of spreading conservative misinformation, the only defense was providing special privileges for the media. Despite the fundamental illegality of such cartels, Democrat politicians and the media openly pressured Facebook to promote “responsible” journalism, by which they meant their own political content, at the expense of “misinformation”.

  By then the entire debate about misinformation had boiled down to creating a two-tiered content system across Big Tech that would fund and push media content while suppressing rival material. This urgent need for a news cartel was described as the best way to meet the “threat to democracy” posed by the “wild west” of the internet. This cynical rhetoric carefully avoided any discussion about the benefits that would flow to the media from this arrangement.

  The ten million dollar checks certainly didn’t hurt.

  It’s no coincidence that just as Facebook might stop writing big checks to the media, the media began discovering new content crises at the social media monopoly.

  Recent entries from the Washington Post, which was being paid $15 million, include, “Facebook Gives Gun Sellers 10 Strikes Before Ban” and “Facebook Fails Again to Detect Hate Speech in Ads”: both of which went viral.

  The former taps into the new mania over gun control to manufacture yet another crisis involving Facebook.

  And crises reward the media cartel.

  Or they used to.

  At the height of the media’s shakedown of Facebook, the fake news business model was troubled while Facebook appeared to be on the rise, but now both are struggling to survive. Investors aren’t buying Facebook’s Metaverse nonsense and TikTok struck a serious blow to the social media monopoly’s control of social spaces. Facebook, like some other FAANG giants like Netflix, no longer seems inevitable. With the company’s stock price down, Zuckerberg may be less willing to spend tens of millions in blackmail money propping up the media’s failing business model.

  Parasites eventually kill the host. The media didn’t deal a fatal blow to Facebook, but its drumbeat of attacks certainly didn’t help the company. The media blamed Facebook for dominating digital advertising, but the idea that users and companies would flock back to their sites if Facebook goes the way of Myspace is every bit as delusional as Russiagate.

  Facebook’s corporate blackmail payments and Trump conspiracy theories helped prop up the media, but neither of those would ever last. The media’s big bet on using Big Tech to create a cartel overlooked the fragility of the monopolies it was relying on. Despite recent setbacks, companies like Google, Facebook and Amazon still dominate the internet, but investors are beginning to question whether they can continue to endlessly grow and swallow up everything.

  The two interlocking cartels, Big Tech and the media, became politically and then economically interdependent in a way that was both illegal and deeply dangerous to a free society.

  The lies, the conspiracy theories and the censorship are products of technopolitical collusion between two sets of corrupt companies that have devastated our politics, our culture and our country.

  The two cartels set out to control our speech and our politics for their own power and profit.

  They did it by manufacturing a crisis and declaring that their abuses were the solution.

  Both Big Media and Big Tech cartels need to be broken up before they break our society.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 23:40

• Coal Emerges Victorious As Sanctions And Green Policies Backfire Spectacularly
  Coal Emerges Victorious As Sanctions And Green Policies Backfire Spectacularly

  When historians look back on this chaotic and turbulent period, they will find that few individuals inflicted as much damage on the environment and promoted the interests of the “dirty fossil fuel” lobby as Greta Tunberg, who by shaming and forcing “serious” politicians to pivot toward green energy at a time when there was nowhere near enough green capacity to replace existing sources of energy, sparked what may be the most spectacular self-own in history. And today, the WSJ, Bloomberg and Reuters all wrote about it.

  We start with the WSJ which concedes what was obvious to most long ago (see “Will ESG Trigger Energy Hyperinflation” from last June), namely that “an energy-starved world is turning to coal as natural-gas and oil shortages exacerbated by Russia’s war against Ukraine lead countries back to the dirtiest fossil fuel.”

  Yes, contrary to the intentions of Green fanatics everywhere, their push to accelerate away from “dirty” fossil fuel has not only backfired spectacularly, but also exposed the hypocrisy and empty promises of so many virtue-signalers, as “from the U.S. to Europe to China, many of the world’s largest economies are increasing short-term coal purchases to ensure sufficient supplies of electricity, despite prior pledges by many countries to reduce their coal consumption to combat climate change.”

  Adding insult to injury, the global competition for coal which is now also in short supply after years of declining investment in new mines and resources, has driven benchmark prices to new records this year. Spot coal prices at Australia’s Newcastle port, a key supplier to Asia, topped $400 a ton for the first time last month.

  

  Hilariously, the push for coal is being led by Europe, ground zero of the “green movement” which finally realized that one can’t burn fake virtue or melt posing in front of camera in the winter to keep warm, and is boosting coal purchases to ensure it can keep power flowing to homes and factories after Russia cut gas supplies to the continent. Germany, which not long ago promised to eliminate coal as a power source by 2030, is among the nations now importing more. Economy Minister Robert Habeck called the increased reliance on coal bitter but necessary. Spoiler alert: Germany will not eliminate coal as a power source by 2030, if anything it will be more reliant on it than ever unless it also restarts its nuclear power plants which it, idiotically, shut down not long ago.

  Never one to admit it was dead wrong, however, Europe has a response to everything: “Right now the sentiment is that more coal is better than more Russia,” said Alex Msimang, a London-based partner at law firm Vinson & Elkins LLP specializing in the energy sector.

  Whatever dude.

  Propaganda bullshit aside, coal is enjoying a renaissance the likes of which it has not seen since the industrial revolution. In addition to soaring coal power use in the US (after the sector was left nearly for dead under Obama), China, the world’s biggest coal consumer, is expanding production of the fuel and its use in power generation, spooked by shortages last year that caused electricity cuts and outages throughout the country, energy experts say.

  India is also leaning hard on coal as energy demand increases. The nation’s coal-power generation hit a record in April, said Rahul Tongia, a senior fellow at New Delhi-based think tank the Centre for Social and Economic Progress.

  Domestic coal production in China and India helped drive a 10% increase in global investment in 2021, the International Energy Agency reported last month. The IEA projects another 10% increase this year as China and India try to stave off shortages.

  Coal miners such as Anglo-Swiss giant Glencore are cashing in. Glencore, one of the last major miners still big in coal, said last month that it now expected $3.2 billion in trading profit in the first half of this year, compared with $3.7 billion for all of 2021.

  “We expect elevated coal prices to make Glencore one of the leading shareholder-return companies in the market,” Deutsche Bank AG analysts wrote. The company’s already wealthy shareholders can thank idiots like Greta for becoming even richer.

  The best part: the global green lobby is about to be silenced forever.

  The resurgence of coal, which emits around double the carbon dioxide as burning natural gas, further threatens to set back international efforts to keep global temperatures under 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels, and preferably close to 1.5 degrees, by the end of the century.

  That is the goal that more than 190 nations agreed to pursue under the 2015 Paris Agreement to avoid the most dangerous potential consequences of global warming. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that emissions, which continue to rise, would need to be drastically reduced by the end of the decade to meet the goal.

  Then again, with the west especially skilled at deluding itself, who’s to say the lies won’t continue. Indeed, as the WSJ notes, climate activists and forecasters say they are concerned about a rise in coal use, but see it as a short-term phenomenon in the West and are more worried that the Ukraine war and other geopolitical events are spurring new natural-gas investments that could operate for decades.

  “It can be justified but not for long,” said Bill Hare, chief executive of the Berlin-based group Climate Analytics, of the coal surge.

  Oh ok, we are confident that Putin will end his military campaign in Ukraine just to keep a bunch of Scandianvian teenagers happy so they can continue spouting nonsense into masked microphones.

  Joking aside, what Putin will do is continue selling Russian coal to Europe – yes, the same Europe that pretends to have imposed sanctions on Moscow – because as Reuters writes, “much of the focus on sanctions on Russia’s commodity exports is on crude oil and natural gas, but coal is perhaps the best example of the challenges facing those seeking to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.”

  Russia is the world’s fourth-largest coal exporter behind Australia, Indonesia and South Africa, and has the ability to supply both the Atlantic and Pacific basins.

  And yes, while Europe – the main buyer of Russian coal –  has proposed a ban on imports it has yet to be even partially implemented, while Japan also plans to end purchases from Russia. Likewise, South Korea has yet to formally sanction imports of Russian energy but is said to be planning for an end to the trade, while China and India, the world’s two biggest coal importers, have no sanctions on Russia and are stepping up imports in order to benefit from steep price discounts, similar to what is taking place in the oil market.

  And also similar to oil, where Russian exports have increased since before the war…

  

  … an analysis of Russia’s seaborne exports of coal since the invasion of Ukraine show that it has not only managed to maintain volumes but has actually increased them: while there has been some switching of buyers, the loss of some markets in Europe and Japan has been more than offset by increased buying, especially by India and Turkey.

  According to data from Kpler, Russia exported 16.45 million tonnes of coal by sea in June, virtually unchanged from May’s 16.56 million. This level of seaborne exports is an acceleration from the same months in 2021, with June shipments up 3.5% and May up 3.8%. It is also a sharp increase on the three months up to the Feb. 24 attack on Ukraine, when Russia’s seaborne coal exports were 13.43 million tonnes in December, 12.28 million in January and 13.08 million in February.

  That said, while Europe has been spouting mostly hot air, Europe’s top buyers of Russian seaborne coal – Germany, the Netherlands and Italy – have started to cut back, with June arrivals at a combined 1.47 million tonnes, down from 2.59 million in May. Yet all that Europe is doing is buying coal from resellers of Russian coal, effectively paying more from the same product. One beneficiary is Turkey. The country which has been supplying Ukraine with military drones, has also ramped up imports of Russian coal, with June arrivals at 1.81 million tonnes, which is the most in any month in Kpler’s records going back to 2017.

  Turkey’s imports from Russia were 1.06 million tonnes in May and they have risen every month since February. Much of the excess coal is then resold to Europe at a steep mark up.

  Overall, what the coal data shows is that Russia has been able to maintain export volumes, even if it has done so by offering discounts. It also shows that it is difficult to both ramp up imports significantly, even if you want to, with both India and China likely to have hit constraints on securing vessels to buy more Russian coal.

  And speaking of supply side constraints, we next go to Blooomberg which writes that the hunt by Europe’s coal consumers to replace Russian cargoes with shipments from across the globe has boosted imports to a key hub by more than a third, helping to fill severely depleted stockpiles.

  Coal poured into the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam region — a huge transport hub for energy and commodities — in the first half of this year, with imports surging 35% to 26.9 million tons compared with the same period last year, according to Kpler. That has helped ARA coal inventories double to almost 6.6 million tons from more than a five-year low in the first quarter. Stockpiles are now close to record levels seen in 2019, according to Kpler. On the downside, the flood of imports is contributing to major congestion at the ports.

  Shipments are soaring as the region scrambles to replace missing Russian product amid fears of continued declines in Russian nat gas exports – and a freezing winter- said Matthew Boyle, lead analyst for dry bulks, gas and LNG at Kpler Insight. Helping to fill the gap is more coal from the US, Colombia and Australia — countries that tend to produce better-quality or so-called high-calorific value material that releases more heat and energy when burned. Of course, the high quality product is also priced accordingly, and as shown in the chart above, Australian coal just hit a record high price, something which has led to Europe’s record 29.1% PPI.

  Australian exporters including Sydney-based Whitehaven Coal have had supply requests from European nations, including Poland, and the firm previously offered 70,000 tons of coal in a government aid package sent to Ukraine. Soaring differentials between European and Australian prices have made it viable for traders to send cargoes from the Asia-Pacific region, even after taking into account the high shipping cost for the longer journey. Some low-quality Indonesian coal has also made its way into Europe, although Kpler said they were likely blended with US material with higher calorific value.

  Meanwhile, in the latest slap on the face of environmentalists and petulant Scandinavian teenagers everywhere, the competition for a fuel many want to consign to history is escalating as power generators across Asia and Europe seek to secure additional shipments amid an energy crunch. Germany and Austria are reviving idled coal power plants in response to Russian gas supply curbs, while Japan and South Korea are stockpiling the fuel ahead of hotter summer weather.

  And in the latest example of chaos theory butterflies and unintended side-effects, the heavy inflow of coal shipments is exacerbating gridlock at the ports.

  “We are seeing very high congestion for the main European ports,” said Abhinav Gupta, a drybulk shipping analyst at Braemar. There were 71 drybulk ships waiting at anchor at the area off Antwerp, Rotterdam and Amsterdam as of June 29, triple the five-year average of 24 ships for this time of the year.

  Current waiting time for coal vessels amounts to about 10 days, according to Kpler, who said low river levels on the Rhine also contributed to delays. It expects that will improve to about eight days by mid-July.

  Coal terminals are currently at full storage capacity, and transporting large volumes of the fuel inland “has become a challenge over the past few weeks,” the Rotterdam port said. The situation has been complicated by a shortage of barges, it said, as many vessels are tied up with Ukrainian iron ore and grain exports.

  In short: total chaos, courtesy of years of catastrophic policies at the behest of the green lobby.

  As for the discredited ideologue Greta, fear not: she still has a podium where more than 5 million followers lap up each of her carefully scripted and produced tweets:

  Tomorrow the European Parliament will decide whether fossil gas and nuclear will be considered “sustainable” in the EU taxonomy. But no amount of lobbyism and greenwashing will ever make it “green”.
  We desperately need real renewable energy, not false solutions. #NotMyTaxonomy

  — Greta Thunberg (@GretaThunberg) July 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It almost makes one wonder: just how much is Putin paying her? Either that, or as Adam Taggart put it…

  This is easily one of the clearest signs our “leaders” are clueless

  The West makes de-carbonization a top priority and what’s the result?

  A world burning near record amounts of coal and paying record prices for it…

  — Adam Taggart (@menlobear) July 6, 2022

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  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 23:20

• Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, Early COVID Therapeutics Innovator, Dies Of Cancer At 48
  Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, Early COVID Therapeutics Innovator, Dies Of Cancer At 48

  Authored by Enrico Trigoso via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, a Nobel prize-nominated physician who famously discovered and used an early treatment for COVID, dubbed the “Zelenko Protocol,” passed on June 30, 2022, at the age of 48 after a long battle with pulmonary artery sarcoma, a rare form of cancer.

  

  He was born in 1973, in Kyiv, Ukraine, and came to Brooklyn, New York, in 1977 with his family.

  Zelenko earned a B.S. in chemistry with high honors at Hofstra University and then earned an M.D. at the Buffalo School of Medicine in 2000.

  He had been practicing in Monroe, New York, in 2020 during the outbreak of COVID-19, and is credited with having treated about 7,500 patients with his method.

  The doctor, who could not sit back and wait for politicians and health officials to agree on prescribed treatments, came up with the “Zelenko Protocol”—a combination of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), zinc, azithromycin, and other drugs, including steroids.

  He credited divine intervention for the discovery of the abovementioned treatment.

  Several experts and doctors who knew him personally expressed their condolences and praised his achievements.

  “Dr. Zelenko was not just our hero, he was a man of God,” Kevin Jenkins, co-chair of the Zelenko Freedom Foundation, told The Epoch Times.

  

  “Two years ago, he stepped into the fire to save humanity. The world is better off today because of his God Courage. Our prayers and love go out to Zev’s friends and family. At the Zelenko Freedom Foundation, his dream for the world will never be forgotten. We will work tirelessly to further his legacy and encourage everyone who is worried about the growing menace of medical tyranny to stand with us and make a positive change,” Jenkins added.

  The other co-chair of the Zelenko Freedom Foundation, Ann Vandersteel, told The Epoch Times: “Dr. Zelenko was a course correction for humanity. As a man of God, his faith gave him the strength to stand in the breach and deliver his life saving Zelenko Protocol when the medical community faltered. His Protocol saved millions of lives worldwide and is a standard of care for physicians who honor their Hippocratic oath.”

  Zelenko, also known as “Zev,” had sent a letter to then-President Donald Trump about hydroxychloroquine.

  “I recall hearing President Trump during a March 2020 press conference talk about a letter he received from a country doctor in upstate NY. That letter that saved millions of lives. Zev had discovered that hydroxychloroquine was, in fact, an efficacious treatment for coronavirus. I believe that was the beginning of the end of big pharma, and with the public’s support, we will continue Zev’s fight through the Zelenko Freedom Foundation,” Vandersteel said.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 23:00

• IAEA Warns If There's No Iran Nuclear Deal, A Regional Arms Race Will Break Out
  IAEA Warns If There’s No Iran Nuclear Deal, A Regional Arms Race Will Break Out

  EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has been traveling among Middle East capitals of late trying to get both sides back the negotiating table surrounding the Iran nuclear deal, and he says time is running out as the window of opportunity is closing.

  “If we want to conclude an agreement, decisions are needed now. This is still possible, but the political space to revive the JCPOA may narrow soon,” he tweeted to start out the week. He’s recently been in Tehran as well as Doha, Qatar – talking to both sides as each blames the other for stalled negotiations.

  The UN nuclear weapons watchdog IAEA is also issuing fresh warnings of tensions at a boiling point between Iran and Israel, which can potentially be quickly allayed if a way forward is found on the nuclear deal.

  

  IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi warned that a Middle East region arms race could break out if the Islamic Republic gets closer to nuclear weapons capability – though Tehran has long insisted its nuclear program is for peaceful energy purposes.

  “We are now in a situation where Iran’s neighbors could start to fear the worst and plan accordingly. There are countries in the region today looking very carefully at what is happening with Iran, and tensions in the region are rising,” Grossi said in Tuesday remarks cited in Bloomberg. “Political leaders have on occasionally openly stated they would actively seek nuclear weapons if Iran were to pose a nuclear threat.”

  As for Israel, while it does not ‘officially’ have declared nuclear weapons, it is widely known that it long ago achieved nuclear weapons status.

  Nearly a month ago, Grossi warned that a potential deal would suffer a “fatal blow” if direct talks are not restored in under four weeks. Given the ongoing Ukraine war and resulting anti-Russia energy sanctions by the US and EU, the West is badly in need of restoring Iranian oil to the global market, also as Washington even looks to such “rogue” states as Venezuela.

  French President Emmanuel Macron in particular is lobbying hard for a deal to succeed, which is instead hanging by a thread.

  He said on Tuesday upon meeting with Israel’s new prime minister that it must succeed:

  “We have to defend this (nuclear) deal (with Iran). And take in account the interests of our friends in the area, primarily Israel,” Macron told reporters during a joint press conference with the Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid.

  Israel has long been against it, seeing in any resurrected deal an opportunity the Iranians will use to cover up a nuclear weapons development program. The Israelis have for well over a year sought to thwart it, but have also said that it there is a deal it must be very strong, and include imposed limitations on Iranian long-range missiles as well.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 22:40

• How The Chinese Military Is Buying American AI Chips: Report
  How The Chinese Military Is Buying American AI Chips: Report

  Authored by Kelly Song via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Despite measures to limit U.S. technology exports to the Chinese military, chips designed by U.S. companies still end up in the hands of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), according to a report by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown University.

  

  For the report, researchers combed through over 66,000 publicly available PLA purchase records during the eight-month period from April to November 2020 and identified 97 unique, high-end artificial intelligence (AI) chips ordered by the PLA. Nearly all of them were designed by U.S. firms Nvidia, Xilinx (now AMD), Intel, and Microsemi.

  The CSET report, released last month, also noted that the researchers couldn’t find any public records of the PLA purchasing the high-end AI chips from any Chinese companies, including HiSilicon (Huawei), Sugon, Sunway, Hygon, and Phytium.

  These AI chips are critical components to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for the “intelligentization” (the addition of artificial intelligence to a system, according to Kaikki.org) of its military and to the regime’s goal to gain dominance over the global AI design and manufacturing market.

  Even though the CCP has poured tens of billions of dollars into its own semiconductor industry, Chinese companies, lacking “intrinsic knowledge and highly specialized equipment,” still can’t catch up to U.S. design firms, while “South Korea’s Samsung and the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company … remain the titans of global semiconductor fabrication,” the report says.

  To obtain the U.S.-designed AI chips, the CCP has been bypassing the limitations imposed by recent U.S. export controls.

  Dodging Export Controls

  The Biden administration has maintained Trump-era controls designed to curtail technology exports to military end users in China. These controls, however, don’t apply to items made outside the United States. Since most AI chips are made in South Korea and Taiwan, the end-user controls have very little power to limit purchases from Chinese entities, the report indicates.

  Moreover, the Department of Commerce maintains an entity list through which the U.S. government can deny orders placed by hostile entities. About 500 Chinese firms are on the entity list. However, none of the seven Chinese intermediary suppliers (for the PLA) who ordered the 97 high-end AI chips found by the CSET researchers are on the list. And based on prior CSET research, a fraction of the PLA’s AI vendors are named in key U.S. export control and sanctions lists.

  The seven intermediary suppliers are based in Beijing, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, and Xi’an, and they are affiliated with the Chinese military through organizations including the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, PLA’s Strategic Support Force, and others.

  Meanwhile, some of these Chinese intermediary suppliers for the PLA are licensed distributors of U.S. chips.

  The CSET report gives the example of Tianjin-based Sitonholy (Tianjin) Co. Ltd., which is listed as a partner on Nvidia’s website. It won a contract to supply Nvidia-designed Titan V graphics processing units to the PLA’s Academy of Military Sciences in April 2020. On its website, Sitonholy claims to be an “elite-level partner of Nvidia” and an “officially authorized distributor of Nvidia products” in China. In addition to the Chinese military, Sitonholy’s clients include 80 percent of universities in China working on AI.

  CCP’s Military–Civil Fusion Strategy

  Prior CSET research has highlighted that, nationwide, Chinese consumers import the majority of the country’s AI chips overwhelmingly from the United States, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea.

  The CCP’s military–civil fusion strategy is making it almost impossible for U.S. regulators to distinguish between military and nonmilitary end users in China, which is the basis of the majority of U.S. export controls. The fusion model allows the Chinese military to bypass U.S. export controls and have covert access to U.S. technology and equipment through its civil counterparts.

  The authors propose that the United States expand its collection of open-source intelligence and adopt new export control measures based on features specific to high-end chips.

  The researchers also found that the PLA uses front companies to get what it needs. For example, in August 2020, Beijing Hengsheng Technology Co. Ltd., which specializes in smart processors and high-performance computing, won a contract to supply Nvidia TX1 and Xilinx Virtex-7 processors to a subsidiary of the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation.

  The two email addresses listed as points of contact for Beijing Hengsheng Technology in public financial records are registered for dozens of other technology consulting companies based in Beijing.

  “The Chinese market accounts for 25 percent of global AI chip consumption,” the report says, “with AI chips sold to China in 2021 amounting to an estimated value between $2.5 billion and $5 billion.”

  For major U.S. chip companies, more than a quarter of their revenues derived from China in 2021, as shown in the table below.

  

  Curtailing the CCP’s access to U.S. technology has associated political and economic costs, the researchers point out. Another challenge would be whether, or how, to compensate for the loss of Chinese market access.

  “One solution,” the report says, “could be to provide U.S. companies with viable alternatives to the Chinese market. The CHIPS for America Act of 2022 offers significant incentives for semiconductor companies to build fabrication facilities in the United States.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 22:20

• "Whitewash": US Says IDF Shot That Killed Palestinian-US Journalist Was Accidental
  “Whitewash”: US Says IDF Shot That Killed Palestinian-US Journalist Was Accidental

  In an announcement timed to receive minimal coverage, the State Department on July 4th said that a U.S. review of the shooting of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh concluded the fatal bullet likely came from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). However, in what critics are calling a baseless whitewashing of the incident that ignores key facts of the case, the U.S. government said there’s “no reason to believe” it was intentional. 

  The U.S. announcement came 10 days before President Biden is slated to visit Israel on July 14 and 15. The trip will also take him to Saudi Arabia. With the kingdom having slaughtered Washington Post writer Jamal Khashoggi, both hosts will have the shadow of a slain journalist hanging over them. 

  Abu Akleh, a star reporter for al Jazeera, was shot in the head on May 11 in the West Bank town of Jenin, as she and her crew reported on an Israeli raid on a refugee camp. In the immediate aftermath, the Israeli government rushed to blame “Palestinian terrorists firing indiscriminately,” while witnesses said an IDF unit was the clear culprit.   

  In a three-paragraph statement, State Department spokeman Ned Price said, “After an extremely detailed forensic analysis, independent third-party examiners, as part of a process overseen by the U.S. Security Coordinator (USSC), could not reach a definitive conclusion regarding the origin of the bullet” as “ballistic experts determined the bullet was badly damaged, which prevented a clear conclusion.”

  However, Price said that, after reviewing both the IDF and Palestinian Authority investigations, 

  “The USSC concluded that gunfire from IDF positions was likely responsible for the death of Shireen Abu Akleh. The USSC found no reason to believe that this was intentional but rather the result of tragic circumstances during an IDF-led military operation against factions of Palestinian Islamic Jihad on May 11, 2022, in Jenin, which followed a series of terrorist attacks in Israel.”  

  It would be one thing for the State Department to say it could not determine whether the killing was intentional; it’s another altogether to declare there’s “no reason” whatsoever to think so. 

  Indeed, a weapons expert consulted by CNN noted the tight shot group on the tree where Akleh stood is consistent with carefully aimed fire—and Abu Akleh and her crew were wearing blue helmets and matching vests marked “PRESS.” 

  

  CNN’s investigation by 10 journalists, which drew on 11 videos, eight eyewitness accounts and consultations with weapons and forensic audio experts, concluded Abu Akleh was “shot dead in a targeted attack by Israeli forces.” (The video version of the report is embedded below.)  

  We should emphasize that CNN isn’t known for routinely casting a critical eye on the Israeli government. Here, as with Khashoggi, mainstream U.S. media outlets seemed more motivated to uncover unflattering facts about a supposed “ally” in a situation where the victim was one of their own. 

  While the State Department vaguely attributed the death to “tragic circumstances” during an IDF operation against Palestinian militants, independent investigations found no indication that militants were anywhere near the IDF rifleman’s direction of fire. Video shows a relaxed scene moments before gunfire erupted. Jenin residents smile, make small talk and smoke cigarettes as they watch the al Jazeera crew led by the star reporter Abu Akleh.

  According to Reporters Without Borders, Israel has killed at least 30 journalists since 2000, including two Palestinians shot by IDF snipers while reporting on protests near the Gaza-Israel border in 2018.

  In the wake of the killing of the Palestinian-American citizen Abu Akleh, members of Congress urged Biden to launch an FBI investigation of the murder—but to no avail.

  The State Department’s July 4 statement closes with a perfunctory call for “cooperation between Israel and the PA in this important case” and a vow that the U.S. government “will remain engaged with Israel and the PA on next steps and urge accountability.” Neither cooperation nor meaningful accountability are likely. 

  The Palestinian Authority said it “rejects the [U.S.] dismissal of the Israeli occupying forces’ intentional targeting of Palestinian journalists…as mere ‘tragic circumstances’ and not an intentional war crime…this whitewashing will only further institutionalize Israel’s entrenched impunity.” 

  In its own statement, the IDF said its investigation “conclusively determined that no IDF soldier deliberately fired at Ms. Abu Akleh” but that it will continue to investigate the incident. 

  Abu Akleh’s family released a statement saying they were “incredulous” and that: 

  “The conclusory [U.S.] pronouncement that the killing was not intentional…is frankly insulting to Shireen’s memory and ignores the history and context of the brutal and violent nature of what is now the longest military occupation in modern history.”  

  For Americans who treasure George Washington’s counsel against “passionate attachments” to foreign governments and Thomas Jefferson’s admonition against “entangling alliances,” the timing of the announcement is an additional affront—the American government chose “Independence Day” for the latest demonstration of its slavish devotion to a faraway state that’s a moral, financial and strategic liability. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 22:00

• 120 Tips On Potential Victims As Utah Sheriff Investigates Claims Of 'Ritual Child Sexual Abuse'
  120 Tips On Potential Victims As Utah Sheriff Investigates Claims Of ‘Ritual Child Sexual Abuse’

  Authored by Allen Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  An investigation by a Utah sheriff into allegations of “ritualistic child sexual abuse” has shocked residents as over 120 victims and those who know victims have come forward.

  

  The local sheriff leading the investigation has solicited help from the FBI, which confirmed it is assisting in the investigation.

  The alleged abuse occurred for two decades, from 1990 through 2010. In recent weeks, dozens of witnesses have come forward with information on these incidents.

  “I don’t know the exact number, but it is now over 120 people who have contacted us. [Of that number], I am sure. There are likely more than 120 at this point,” Utah County Sheriff’s Sgt. Spencer Cannon told The Epoch Times.

  Cannon said the tips are from “a combination of victims or those who know of victims. So, not all tips are from victims.”

  On May 31, the Utah County Sheriff’s Office announced that the investigation had been underway since April 2021 involving reports of “ritualistic child sexual abuse and child sex trafficking” in Utah County, the state’s second-largest county.

  The investigation uncovered even more victims in neighboring Juab County and Sanpete County during the same period. In a press release, the sheriff’s office said that local law enforcement confirmed “portions of these allegations.”

  The Utah County Sheriff’s Office leads the investigation with other local law enforcement agencies and the FBI.

  “It’s common practice for the FBI to offer assistance, when requested, to our law enforcement partners. We are assisting, and so I will defer to the lead agency, which is the Utah County Sheriff’s Office,” said FBI spokeswoman Sandra Barker.

  At a press conference, a day after authorities announced the joint investigation in Utah County, then-Utah County attorney David Leavitt identified himself and his wife, an attorney, as potential suspects while vigorously refuting the claims.

  Leavitt, who lost a reelection bid on June 28 to his challenger, who won by 73 percent of the vote, said law enforcement “is about trust … it is about being able to say that when the government makes an allegation that there’s substance behind [it] that we can believe in.”

  He demanded that the sheriff resign and that the investigation stop.

  “We deserve more from our public officials, and we deserve more from the news media to respectfully and responsibly ferret out what is true and what is not,” said Leavitt during his 30-minute briefing.

  Leavitt accused Utah County Sheriff Mike Smith of conducting a politically motivated witch hunt in an election year.

  County Attorney ‘Named Himself’ as Suspect

  In his rebutting press conference, Sheriff Smith said his office released no documents to the public that identified Leavitt as a suspect and denied that the investigation was political.

  “Mr. Leavitt named himself,” Cannon said and would neither confirm, deny, or comment about anyone whose names have come up in the case.

  “What I will say, however, is that the case Mr. Leavitt referred to is not the case we began investigating in April 2021. He implies otherwise, but he is wrong,” Cannon said.

  Smith refused to resign, halt the probe, or reprimand officers involved in the Utah County Sheriff’s Office Special Victim’s Unit investigation.

  “We will continue to do our jobs. We won’t be intimidated by [Leavitt’s] attempts to railroad this investigation,” Smith said.

  The sheriff’s office would not discuss the case further, absent new developments.

  

  “And when I say new developments, I mean something beyond what we’ve said and the investigation of original information and talking to those reporting information to us as tips,” Cannon said.

  “We don’t discuss the [victims’ names] or suspects [while investigating cases]. In most cases, we comment very little, if at all, on active investigations. We have not, and will not at this point, confirm, deny, or name people whose names may or may not have come up in this or any other investigation.”

  The recent spate of ritualistic child abuse reports harkens back to the “Satanic Panic” that gripped Western states during the 1980s and ’90s.

  A special report in The Daily Herald in Provo, Utah, dated Oct. 30, 1988, described ritualistic child abuse and Satanism as a severe problem in Utah and Utah County.

  Beyond the lurid allegations of abuse, however, these cases proved challenging, lacking physical evidence, relying on oral testimony, and triggered memories years after.

  “Yes, there are definitely several cases,” the story quoted Robert Parrish, an official in the Utah Attorney General’s office at the time.

  “I’m not assuming I know all of them, but there are at least a half dozen that have involved ceremonial—not necessarily satanistic rituals—but most involve aspects that fit like a glove to Satanism.”

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 21:40

• Partial Olive Branch? Putin Says "No Problem" If Finland, Sweden Join NATO
  Partial Olive Branch? Putin Says “No Problem” If Finland, Sweden Join NATO

  Now with the 30 member nations having signed the NATO accession protocols for Sweden and Finland on Tuesday, which brings them a huge step closer to entering the alliance, Russian President Vladimir Putin has reacted by downplaying it:

  Russia has “no problem” if Finland and Sweden join NATO, President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday. “We don’t have problems with Sweden and Finland like we do with Ukraine,” Putin told a news conference in the Turkmenistan capital of Ashgabat. Finland and Sweden will be formally invited to join the alliance after Turkey dropped its opposition on Tuesday. 

  WATCH: On Russian State TV, President Putin (@KremlinRussia_E) stated that Sweden and Finland are free to join NATO because their circumstances differ from Ukraine’s. pic.twitter.com/th4tYmVHQS

  — BNN Newsroom (@BNNBreaking) July 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  However, he was also quoted as saying he couldn’t rule out that new tensions would emerge in Russian relations with Helsinki and Stockholm now that they’ve abandoned their historic neutrality regarding the Western military alliance.

  Additionally he suggested a further militarization along the 830-mile Russian-Finnish border, in line with prior comments from top Kremlin officials: “President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia would respond in kind if NATO set up infrastructure in Finland and Sweden after they join the US-led military alliance,” according to AFP, though without explaining further.

  The thrust of his comments appeared to focus on the question of Ukraine joining and Sweden-Finland being “two different things”.

  Putin explained in the televised remarks, “They began turning Ukraine into an anti-Russia bridgehead for trying to destabilize Russia itself. They began fighting Russian culture and language. They began to persecute individuals who regarded themselves as part of the Russian world,” in reference to the Ukrainian government post-2014, following the forced ouster of Russian-friendly president Viktor Yanukovych.

  Two months ago as it emerged that Finland would seriously pursue joining NATO, there were fears this could spark a Russia-NATO war, but now these and other comments of Putin on the question strongly suggest Moscow is willing to de-escalate on the question. 

  One more important step forward. ⁰
  Today, #NATO Allies signed the Accession Protocols for 🇫🇮 and 🇸🇪. We want to extend a sincere thank you to all Allies.

  The next step on the road towards membership is the ratification process in all national parliaments.
  #FinlandNATO pic.twitter.com/lUHKBPkncy

  — Finland at NATO (@FinMissionNATO) July 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  It seems for the first time the Russian leader has offered NATO a partial olive branch of sorts, signaling Russia doesn’t wish to stumble into broader conflict with the Western military alliance, particularly over the Scandinavia countries’ accession.

  He was also addressing critics who don’t buy the Russian arguments that the Ukraine invasion was fundamentally driven by NATO expansion. This was the most detailed that President Putin has been of late in explaining why the Ukraine matter is “different” – or a unique threat to Russia’s national security – when it comes to NATO expansion.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 21:20

• Dutch Farmers Bring Tank To Fertilizer Protest; Cops Shoot Tractor
  Dutch Farmers Bring Tank To Fertilizer Protest; Cops Shoot Tractor

  Update (2112ET): Dutch protesters have taken things to the next level in the ongoing demonstrations – deploying a tank against a ‘green’ government scheme to reduce nitrogen in fertilizer that would see an estimated 30% of the country’s farms shuttered.

  The tank will presumably be used to block food distribution centers, following the use of tractors for that purpose earlier in the week.

  So, uh…. Dutch farmers have purchased a tank to use to block distribution centres. pic.twitter.com/rVvwb2pSA9

  — Keean Bexte 🇳🇱 (@TheRealKeean) July 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The police are also “violently pulling down blockades one by one” according to journalist Keenan Bexte.

  Police are violently pulling down blockades one by one, through the use of “Romeos” which I’ll talk about later. (Basically police sanctioned ANTIFA). Shocking for a democracy, but this is Klaus Schwab country. Here is a snapshot from the front lines. https://t.co/363xQ3IVwh pic.twitter.com/SdYi5rKj2L

  — Keean Bexte 🇳🇱 (@TheRealKeean) July 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Update (1920ET): Dutch police fired ‘targeted shots’ on Tuesday evening during a farmers’ protest near the town of Heerenveen, the Pledge Times reports.

  According to the police, a threatening situation arose when protesters tried to drive into officers and official cars. Warning shots were then fired and an officer also fired pointedly. No one was injured, but a tractor was hit. Three people have been arrested.

  Because a police officer fired shots, the National Criminal Investigation Department will investigate the incident.

  Watch:

  Dutch police shoot at #farmer and his tractor 🚜.#Netherlands #FarmersProtest #FarmerProtest pic.twitter.com/0qR6EjO0L6

  — Markus Haintz (@MarkusHaintzUSA) July 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Heb de beelden gezien van schoten die zijn gelost op #boeren in Friesland. Al langer waarschuw ik voor escalatie van protesten. Woensdag wil ik spoeddebat hierover met minister-president en minister van J&V. Dit gaat mis, zei ik vorige week. En het gaat mis #boereninopstand pic.twitter.com/rNHycExiRE

  — Caroline van der Plas (@lientje1967) July 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Meanwhile:

  🇳🇱 is 🔥 pic.twitter.com/m64cgiQ8em

  — bu/ac (@buperac) July 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  According to the report, MP Caroline van der Plas of the BoerBurgerBeweging wants to hold an emergency debate with Prime Minister Rutte on Wednesday about the escalating farmers’ protests.

  “Have seen the images of shots fired at #boeren in Friesland. I have been warning against escalating protests for some time now. On Wednesday I want an emergency debate about this with the Prime Minister and the Minister of J&V. This is going wrong, I said last week,” she tweeted.

  *  *  *

  Dutch farmers who are livid over government plans to cut nitrogen emissions by 50% – 95% have now taken to blocking food distribution centers in protest of the plan, which would shutter an estimated one-third of farms in the Netherlands.

  Some 25 tractors parked outside a distribution center in the city of Zaandam, just north of Amsterdam, donning banners which read “Our farmers, our future” and other slogans, according to the Fresh Fruit Portal.

  AH Zaandam distributiecentrum #steundeboeren #boerenprotest #4juli pic.twitter.com/YTrRpoD4cI

  — ingrid (@twatters67) July 4, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Dutch supermarkets today. No farms, no food. Dutch farmers wins. pic.twitter.com/HFxUOdcN3D

  — RadioGenova (@RadioGenova) July 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Fisherman in the country have also begun blocking ports in solidarity with the farmers.

  A tractor at another protest, in the northern town of Drachten, urged people to “think for a moment about what you want to eat without farmers.”

  The strike has sparked fears of supermarket food shortages, as fishermen have also blocked a number of harbors in an act of solidarity.

  “Supermarkets do everything they can to keep the stores stocked, but if blockades continue, it could lead to people not being able to do their daily shopping,” the Central Bureau for Food Trade said in a statement.

  In addition, traffic authorities warned of delays and possible slow-moving tractors on the nation’s highways, while Schiphol Airport urged travelers to use public transport to get to its terminals amid fears that the blockades also would target airports. -Fresh Fruit Portal

  The upcoming reforms are expected to include a reduction in livestock, as well as buying up farms whose animals produce large volumes of ammonia.

  Meanwhile, undercover cops were reportedly ousted from a protest over the weekend.

  Undercover police tried to infiltrate the Dutch farmers protest but they got caught 🤣 pic.twitter.com/FmhhrGxbbz

  — Glynis Payne (@GlynisPayne17) July 5, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  This is what Dutch police undercover agents look like, making arrests during a demonstration from farmers. I don’t think this would go over well with the global community. This is something they accuse dictators of. Like putin. But this happend in the Netherlands. pic.twitter.com/p1wC35qrnE

  — *REEE Lee Spacey (@LeeSpacey) June 29, 2022

  Earlier in the weekend, farmers poured mature on government offices in protest.

  Dutch farmers protesting outside the home of the Minister for Nitrogen & Nature Policy against the govts plan to target the livestock sector with nitrogen emission cuts.

  The plan could see up to 30% reduction in livestock farming & farms out of business. pic.twitter.com/0C8hjLQJWn

  — Marie Oakes (@TheMarieOakes) June 29, 2022

  🚨🚨⚠️⚠️
  The Dutch protesters are pouring manure on government offices, flooding streets, and becoming all together ungovernable. This uprising is in response to the WEF controlled government shutting down farms to “save the planet.” You have to see this: https://t.co/YTyax7uagm pic.twitter.com/mXgufQfkRM

  — Keean Bexte 🇳🇱 (@TheRealKeean) July 2, 2022

  In short, don’t fuck with farmers. 

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 21:15

• US-Mexico Border Is World's "Deadliest" Land-Crossing: UN Study
  US-Mexico Border Is World’s “Deadliest” Land-Crossing: UN Study

  Authored by Gary Bai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  The U.S.-Mexico border has become the world’s “deadliest” land crossing, according to data recently brought to light by a United Nations study.

  

  A historic high of 728 recorded immigrant deaths and disappearances along the U.S.-Mexico border crossing in 2021 has made the land crossing the deadliest in the world, according to the study conducted by the United Nations agency, the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

  These deaths accounted for the majority of the 1,238 immigrant deaths in the Americas in 2021, the IOM said in a press release on July 1, adding that these numbers should be considered an “undercount” due to difficulties in collecting data.

  The study attributed the deaths and disappearance of immigrants in the Americas to a “lack of options for safe and regular mobility,” saying that this would drive migrants, presumably those choosing to enter as illegal aliens, to pursue riskier dangerous pathways to their destinations.

  The agency also noted how the dangers faced by migrants are highlighted by recent news about what amounted to the deadliest known smuggling incident in American history: the discovery of 53 bodies in a tractor-trailer packed with 67 illegal immigrants in San Antonio on June 27.

  The record deaths came as Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents reported a record number of apprehensions along the southern border.

  According to CBP statistics obtained by The Epoch Times, border patrol agents from Brownsville, Texas, to San Diego apprehended 232,628 illegal border crossers in May—the highest monthly total in 23 years.

  In the same month, 79 illegal immigrants were found dead or died while crossing the border, according to the CBP data.

  “When that many people come across the border, it’s just a matter of math—you increase those that come across the border, you increase those that put themselves into the hands of the criminal cartels—you are certainly going to increase the deaths at the border,” Tom Homan, former head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), told The Epoch Times in June.

  “Very vulnerable people take the risk and pay criminal cartels who don’t give one cent about these people,” Homan said, adding that more migrants have died so far during President Joe Biden’s term in office than “any time [he] can remember in [his] 35-year career.”

  Since Biden took office in January 2021, border authorities have apprehended more than 3.2 million illegal border crossers, according to CBP data. An additional 800,000 or so have been detected but evaded capture.

  The Epoch Times has reached out to the Department of Homeland Security for comment.

  Charlotte Cuthbertson contributed to this report.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 21:00

• Power Companies Face Transformer Shortage Ahead Of Hurricanes And Wildfires
  Power Companies Face Transformer Shortage Ahead Of Hurricanes And Wildfires

  Power-grid operators across the US recently warned about the increasing risks of electricity shortages and the potential need to implement rolling blackouts for grid stability this summer. According to a Reuters report, utilities are sounding the alarm about a transformer shortage. 

  Utility operators are stocking up on transformers, distribution lines, and poles, though many have one similar issue: sourcing has become challenging, and this is all happening as hurricane season has begun on the East Coast and heatwaves and fires scorch the West. 

  “We’re doing a lot more splicing, putting cables together, instead of laying new cable because we’re trying to maintain our new cable for inventory when we need it,” Nick Akins, chief executive of American Electric Power, a utility company delivering electricity to more than five million customers in 11 states in the eastern half of the US. 

  New Jersey-based Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. Chief Executive Ralph Izzo warned inventories are tight for transformers. 

  “You don’t want to deplete your inventory because you don’t know when that storm is coming, but you know it’s coming,” Izzo said. The utility serves millions of residential and business customers across New Jersey. 

  

  Utilities across the country are getting dangerously low on overhead distribution transformers. Supply is lacking, and the shortfall could take two years to correct. 

  “If we have successive days of 100-degree-heat, those pole-top transformers, they start popping like Rice Krispies, and we would not have the supply stack to replace them,” Izzo said.

  If wild weather from coast to coast wreaks havoc on power grids in the coming months, some utilities might find replacing transformers impossible because of limited supplies. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 20:40

• "Get The F**k Out Of Here": Rep. Omar Booed During Somali Music Festival Appearance In Home State
  “Get The F**k Out Of Here”: Rep. Omar Booed During Somali Music Festival Appearance In Home State

  Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Video footage surfaced online that appeared to show a crowd of people at a Somali cultural event in Minneapolis booing “Squad” member Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) over the weekend.

  

  Omar, who came to the United States as a Somali refugee, made an appearance at a concert featuring Somali singer Suldaan Seeraar at the city’s Target Center. As soon as she arrived on stage, the boos began, according to footage posted online.

  Ilhan Omar got booed onstage at a concert featuring Somali singer Soldaan Seraar in Minnesota last night.
  People in the crowd chanted “Get out!” & shouted “Get the f*ck out of here!”. pic.twitter.com/sggii7h6sO

  — Leftism (@LeftismForU) July 3, 2022

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  Some yelled at her, “Get out!” and “get the [expletive] out of here.”

  “It was an honor to welcome you to our incredible city,” the Democratic congresswoman said in a Twitter post alongside a 14-second clip. The clip ended moments after the audience started to boo loudly.

  Longer videos suggested that the crowd booed her for about a minute after she and her husband came onto the stage. “OK, OK, OK, OK, OK, we don’t have all night,” Omar said at one point as the crowd kept booing.

  Unclear Why

  Some people suggested that it’s because of Omar’s support for Roe v. Wade, a Supreme Court decision that decriminalized abortion nationwide, support for LGBT causes, and other left-wing causes. Omar is currently the whip of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

  It’s not clear what prompted the response, and neither Omar nor her office has issued a public comment about the matter. The Epoch Times has contacted Omar’s office several times for comment about the boos.

  Following last month’s Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Omar said she would fight to codify it into law. She’s also publicly backed proposals to expand the Supreme Court and end the Senate filibuster to pass abortion laws.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 20:20

• Mexico President: Free Assange Or Dismantle Statue Of Liberty
  Mexico President: Free Assange Or Dismantle Statue Of Liberty

  On the 4th of July, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador declared that, if Wikileaks journalist Julian Assange is convicted in the United States, the Statue of Liberty should be dismantled, reports the Mexico Daily Post. 

  Assange is currently imprisoned by the United Kingdom pending an extradition to the United States on charges under the U.S. Espionage Act. Those charges spring from his receipt and publishing of vast troves of classified American government documents. Among many other embarrassing disclosures, the files revealed previously undisclosed civilian casualties of the war in Iraq.  

  On Friday, Assange appealed the UK government’s extradition decision to the High Court. PEN International, a global association of writers, condemned the U.S government’s conduct in the case:

  “Julian Assange’s prosecution raises profound concerns about freedom of the press. Invoking the Espionage Act for practices that include receiving and publishing classified information sends a dangerous signal to journalists and publishers worldwide.” 

  Speaking at a press conference at the National Palace, López Obrador called for the “most important press in the world”—including The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Mexico’s El Pais—to “convene a meeting…to exhort, request, call, so that a pardon be granted to Assange.”  

  He continued:

  “If they don’t do it, they will be tarnished and we will have to start the campaign that, if they take him to the US, and sentence him to the maximum sentence [to] die in prison, they will have to dismantle the Statue of Liberty that the French delivered…because it is no longer a symbol of freedom.”

  López Obrador pledged to make his own personal appeal. “I want to state that I am going to ask President Biden to address this matter. I am aware that it goes against the severe hardliners that exist in the United States as in all countries, but humanism must also prevail,” he said. 

  He has previously indicated his willingness to grant Assange humanitarian asylum and Mexican citizenship. 

  It’s not the first time López Obrador has invoked the Statue of Liberty in criticizing political conditions in the United States.

  Referring to social media firms de-platforming then-sitting U.S. president Donald Trump in January 2021, he said, “I don’t know if you’ve noticed that since they took these decisions, the Statue of Liberty in New York is turning green with anger, because it doesn’t want to become an empty symbol.”

  A consistent Western gadfly, in June López Obrador condemned NATO’s “immoral” proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. “How easy it is to say, ‘Here, I’ll send you this much money for weapons.’ Couldn’t the war in Ukraine have been avoided? Of course it could…’I’ll supply the weapons, and you supply the dead.’ It is immoral.”

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 20:00

• A Rare Paradigm Shift With Huge Implications… 5 Reasons Why It's Imminent
  A Rare Paradigm Shift With Huge Implications… 5 Reasons Why It’s Imminent

  Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

  Although many don’t realize it, interest rates are simply the price of money.

  

  And they are the most important prices in all of capitalism.

  They have an enormous impact on banks, the real estate market, and the auto industry. It’s hard to think of a business that interest rates don’t affect in some meaningful way.

  Today, we are on the cusp of a rare paradigm shift in interest rates. Such changes take decades—or even generations—to occur. But when they do, the financial implications are profound.

  Interest rates rise and fall through decades-long cycles, as seen in the chart below.

  That makes sense, as debt is naturally cyclical. It allows people to consume more than they produce now. But it also forces them to produce more than they consume later to pay it off.

  Interest rates last peaked in 1981 at over 15%. Then, they fell for 39 years and bottomed in July 2020 at around 0.62%.

  The red line marks the long-term average of 5.6%.

  

  Since the bottom in 2020, yields have gone up more than 5x. This reflects a significant shift. I think we are now at the very beginning of a new, long-term uptrend in interest rates.

  

  As of writing, the 10-year Treasury is yielding around 3.2%. That’s still far below the long-term historical average of approximately 5.6%. It’s also not even in the ballpark of the US government’s dubious official inflation rate of 8.6%, which is undoubtedly understated.

  In other words, interest rates have a lot of room to go up.

  I expect interest rates to reach new all-time highs in this new, long-term cycle. That would mean we’d see the 10-year Treasury yield north of 15%.

  Interest Rates Are Rigged

  Remember, interest rates are the price of money. They are the most important prices in all of capitalism. Yet they’re controlled by a politburo of central planners at the Federal Reserve, not set by the market like any other price.

  It’s strange that many people thoughtlessly accept this as “normal.” In reality, the Fed is engaged in a massive price-fixing scam… and nobody seems to care.

  While the Fed exercises undue influence over interest rates, other significant factors are at play here. And they all point to higher interest rates.

  Together, they’re ushering in a once-in-a-generation shift that is both unstoppable and imminent.

  Aside from the Federal Reserve, the US government’s federal budget has enormous influence over interest rates. That’s because when the government spends more than it brings in from taxes, it issues debt (i.e., Treasuries) to make up the difference.

  And now that Congress has normalized multi-trillion dollar federal spending deficits, that means an avalanche of new Treasuries to finance them.

  Who Will Buy All This Paper?

  Historically, there has been a vast foreign appetite for Treasuries. But not anymore.

  In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US government has launched its most aggressive sanctions campaign ever.

  As part of this, the US government seized the US dollar reserves of the Russian central bank—the accumulated savings of the nation.

  It was a stunning illustration of the dollar’s political risk. The US government can seize another sovereign country’s dollar reserves at the flip of a switch.

  The Wall Street Journal, in an article titled “If Russian Currency Reserves Aren’t Really Money, the World Is in for a Shock,” noted:

  “Sanctions have shown that currency reserves accumulated by central banks can be taken away. With China taking note, this may reshape geopolitics, economic management and even the international role of the U.S. dollar.”

  China is one of the largest holders of US Treasuries, and it indeed took note of what happened to Russia. It’s probably a big reason Beijing cut its Treasury holdings to a 12-year low.

  Even US allies, like Japan, have also cut their Treasury holdings.

  There are numerous other examples. But it’s clear the world isn’t hungry for US debt right now.

  The Russia sanctions episode is a reason foreigners—and other Treasury holders—may start to question the US’ willingness to meet its debt obligations. That would drive demand for higher yields to account for the added risk.

  What about the Fed?

  Usually, the Federal Reserve would help the federal government finance its deficits by creating trillions of new currency units to buy Treasuries. But with inflation spiraling out of control and the Fed desperately tightening, it is not in a position to come to the rescue this time.

  To summarize, here are the five reasons to expect higher interest rates:

  1. Inflation is out of control. Even the government’s official inflation statistics—which understate the situation—are far above current interest rates.

  2. The federal government must issue a flood of new Treasuries to finance multi-trillion dollar deficits—which are here to stay.

  3. Sanctions are eroding confidence in the US financial system.

  4. Foreigners aren’t buying as many Treasuries.

  5. The Fed is tightening.

  When you connect all the dots, I think it’s clear we are starting a new long-term cycle, with rising interest rates and a bear market in bonds. That will have enormous implications for the economy and the stock market.

  We will likely see incredible volatility in the financial markets as thousands of businesses that had become accustomed to easy money and artificially low interest rates go bankrupt.

  *  *  *

  The economic trajectory is troubling. Unfortunately, there’s little any individual can practically do to change the course of these trends in motion. The best you can and should do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible, and even profit from the situation. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey and his colleagues just released an urgent new PDF report that explains what could come next and what you can do about it. Click here to download it now.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 19:40

• Cross-Dressing Parade Gunman Bought 5 Weapons Despite Threats
  Cross-Dressing Parade Gunman Bought 5 Weapons Despite Threats

  Update (1950ET): The suspected gunman who killed 7 people in the Independence Day parade attack in suburban Chicago legally bought two high-powered rifles and three other weapons, despite having had knives confiscated in 2019 after he threatened suicide and violence, according to police.

  21-year-old Robert “Bobby” E. Crimo III was charged with seven counts of first-degree murder on Tuesday for the shooting, and “dozens of more charges” are anticipated according to Lake County State’s Attorney Eric Rinehart.

  *  *  *

  The death toll in Monday’s 4th of July parade shooting in Highland Park, Illinois has risen to seven, after more than 70 shots were fired into the crowd.

  

  According to a Tuesday statement by police, the shooter – believed to be Robert Crimo III – was able to initially evade capture by dressing as a woman to blend into the fleeing crowd.

  WGN Investigates has obtained an image of the suspected parade shooter dressed as a woman. Police say he wore the disguise to aid in his escape. https://t.co/KwPtulXno3 @WGNNews pic.twitter.com/GniP3CLBNA

  — Ben Bradley (@BenBradleyTV) July 5, 2022

  During a Tuesday morning press conference, Christopher Covelli, Lake County Major Crime Task Force spokesman, said that 21-year-old Robert “Bobby” Crimo III purchased the rifle used in the mass shooting through legal means. He was arrested approximately eight hours after the shooting, while a second gun was found in his car following the arrest.

  According to Highland Park Police Commander Chris O’Neill, the gunman was perched on a rooftop and was “very difficult to see,” adding that the rifle was recovered at the scene, along with a ladder attached to the building.

  Crimo reportedly planned the attack weeks in advance according to police (or anyone who watched his music video depicting a mass shooting). There is no indication that the shooting was racially motivated.

  Crimo, who goes by the name Bobby, was an aspiring rapper with the stage name Awake the Rapper, posting on social media dozens videos and songs, some ominous and violent.

  In one animated video since taken down by YouTube, Crimo raps about armies “walking in darkness” as a drawing appears of a man pointing a rifle, a body on the ground and another figure with hands up in the distance. –Press Herald

  Federal agents are reviewing his internet footprint – while a preliminary examination of his internet history suggests he was researching mass killings, a law enforcement official said.

  Crimo also ‘liked’ several tweets advocating for the imprisonment of pro-J6 Republicans, with the hashtag “ArrestThemAll.”

  

  CNN, meanwhile, is taking this whole thing very seriously.

  Witness: “There was a body about 8ft from where we were standing… that body was in a pool of blood…”

  CNN host: *smiles and laughs* pic.twitter.com/M05FgxruQK

  — R.J. Kassam (@RaheemKassam) July 5, 2022

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 19:29

• Rent Prices Cool The Most In These Five Cities 
  Rent Prices Cool The Most In These Five Cities 

  Amid a historic stretch of inflation over the last year, the cost of housing (especially rent) has been one of the most significant pressures on household finances. 

  The good news from the National Rent Report for June 2022 from Zumper, an online platform for rental searches, shows a long-awaited slowdown in rents arrived in June. 

  Zumper’s National Rent Index for a one-bedroom only grew .5% in June over the prior month, while two bedrooms are down 2.9%. This is “a sign that rent hikes are beginning to slow,” Zumper said in the report. 

  “With an unpredictable stock market, the ever-increasing cost of living, ongoing war in Ukraine, and talk of a recession, many consumers are tightening their wallets and reconsidering their living arrangements yet again.

  “For many would-be home buyers, the recent interest-rate hike was the final straw, and mortgage applications fell to a 22-year low this month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

  “But one consumer’s opt-out is another’s opportunity: As the housing market begins to cool, price cuts are following and houses are staying on the market for longer periods of time. Most markets have said goodbye to the days of dozens of lavish offers within hours of listing a house. The subsequent price cuts have created pockets of opportunity for renters who’ve been looking to buy a home for years and are a likely explanation for this month’s dramatic decrease in two-bedroom rent prices.” — Zumper 

  On a year-over-year basis of national median rents for one and two bedrooms, the pace of increases appears not just to have leveled off but is now reversing. 

  

  Here are the five metro areas where rent prices are decreasing for one- and two-bedroom apartments between May and June. Tallahassee, Florida, had the largest drop, followed by Anchorage, Alaska. 

  1. Tallahassee, Florida

  • Median rent price for a 1-bedroom apartment: $860 
  • Month-over-month change in price: -6.5%
  • Year-over-year change in price: 7.5%

  2. Anchorage, Alaska

  • Median rent price for a 1-bedroom apartment: $1,060
  • Month-over-month change in price: -6.2% 
  • Year-over-year change in price: 8.2%

  3. Urban Honolulu

  • Median rent price for a 1-bedroom apartment: $1,530 
  • Month-over-month change in price: -6.1% 
  • Year-over-year change in price: 3.4%

  4. San Diego 

  • Median rent price for a 1-bedroom apartment: $2,320
  • Month-over-month change in price: -6.1% 
  • Year-over-year change in price: 20.8%

  5. Syracuse, New York 

  • Median rent price for a 1-bedroom apartment: $930
  • Month-over-month change in price: -6.1% 
  • Year-over-year change in price: 8.1%

  Since the cost of rent and living expenses is on everyone’s mind, those renting in expensive metro areas (and can remotely work) might want to keep an eye on slumping rent prices in other metro areas. 

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 19:20

• The World's Third-Largest Economy Is Facing A Looming Energy Crisis
  The World’s Third-Largest Economy Is Facing A Looming Energy Crisis

  By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com

  Japan is facing an energy crisis that can severely hurt the world’s third-largest economy as it is forced to tackle a combination of a weak local currency, the fallout from the Ukraine war, and a heatwave.

  

  Japan already had a significant energy import bill as it depends on foreign oil and gas for 90 percent of its needs. But as the yen fell to the lowest in 20 years, Japan’s bill became even bigger, with the price rise in crude oil, which has been some 40 percent in dollar terms since the start of 2022, reaching a whopping 70 percent in yen terms.

  “A confluence of factors, including the higher fuel prices since the war and the tumbling currency, is putting a significant pressure on Japan’s energy security, making this one of the most serious energy crises Japan has had,” said Jane Nakano, a senior fellow at Washington-based think tank the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

  Because of its extreme dependence on imported energy, Japan has had to continue importing Russian oil and gas despite its verbal commitment to sanctions against Moscow.

  Recently, the head of one of the biggest shipping companies in Asia, Mitsui OSK Lines, said that Japan has no choice but to continue importing Russian LNG, citing the country’s nuclear plants that are still offline after the Fukushima tragedy and soaring energy prices.

  “We cannot use many nuclear power stations therefore the supply and demand balance of the power industry is quite tight,” Takeshi Hashimoto told the Financial Times earlier this month. “Nowadays, the spot market of both LNG and coal is quite expensive. That is one of the reasons why Japan is so reluctant to stop the LNG imports from Russia.”

  It could be because of its heavy energy import bill that Japan proposed to the G7 to cap Russian oil export prices at half the current rate.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 19:00

Digest powered by RSS Digest

• Leaked Report Reveals Eiffel Tower Riddled With Rust, In Desperate Need Of Repair
  Leaked Report Reveals Eiffel Tower Riddled With Rust, In Desperate Need Of Repair

  French magazine Marianne cites confidential reports that show the Eiffel Tower is deteriorating and riddled with rust. The tower desperately needs full repair, not just a cosmetic refurbishment.

  “If Gustave Eiffel visited the place, he would have a heart attack,” an unnamed tower manager told Marianne.

  The Eiffel Tower, nicknamed “La dame de fer” (French for “Iron Lady”), was constructed from 1887 to 1889 as the centerpiece of the 1889 World’s Fair. Engineer Gustave Eiffel, whose company designed and built the tower, only expected the wrought-iron lattice structure to only last two decades. 

  

  The tower still stands more than 130 years later, thanks to routine maintenance and fresh paint. But now, the 7,300-ton structure with more than 2.5m rivets is in poor condition and needs complete restoration.

  A 60 million euro project to repaint the tower is underway ahead of the 2024 Olympics. This will be the 20th time the structure has been repainted since its inception. 

  “Paint is the essential ingredient for protecting a metallic structure and the care with which this is done is the only guarantee of its longevity,” Eiffel wrote at the time. “The most important thing is to prevent the start of rust.”

  

  Experts told Marianne that the current work is only a cosmetic facelift — adding that some metal pieces need to be replaced. 

  A 2014 report by paint experts Expiris found the tower had cracks and rusting problems. 

   “Even if the general state of the anti-corrosion protection seems good to the eye, this can be misleading,” Expiris said a the time. “It is not feasible to envisage the application of a new coat of paint that can only increase the risk of a total lack of adhesion.”

  

  Bernard Giovannoni, the head of Expiris, told Marianne: “I’ve worked on the tower for several years now. In 2014 I considered there was an extreme urgency to deal with the corrosion.” 

  Another report in 2016 found the tower had 884 faults, including 68 that could affect “the durability” of the structure.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 02:45

• The Woke Inquisitors Have Come For The Freethinking Heretics
  The Woke Inquisitors Have Come For The Freethinking Heretics

  Authored by J.B.Shurk via The Gatestone Institute,

  Attacks on free speech are on the rise.

  A British college recently expelled a student for expressing support for the government’s official policy of deporting illegal immigrants. A Wisconsin school district charged three middle-schoolers with sexual harassment last month for refusing to use the plural pronoun “they” when referring to a single classmate. US President Joe Biden’s National Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy recently encouraged social media companies to censor from their online platforms any opinions that contradict Biden’s climate change narrative.

  

  In its continued commitment to preserve the government’s monopoly over COVID-19 information, Twitter actually suspended a medical doctor for merely sharing a scientific study that suggests the Pfizer vaccine affects male fertility. And the NFL’s Washington Commanders fined defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio $100,000 and forced him to apologize only weeks ago for having expressed his opinion that 2020’s summer of riots across the United States after George Floyd’s death was more destructive than the few hours of mayhem at the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

  In contrast, it has become newsworthy that entertainment powerhouse Paramount has chosen not to censor old movies and television shows containing content that today’s “woke” scolds might find “offensive.” In a “cancel culture” world where censorship and trigger warnings have become the norm, preserving the artistic integrity of a film is now considered outright daring. In fact, even publishers of old literary classics have begun rewriting content to conform with “politically correct” sensibilities.

  Examples such as these, where personal speech is either censored or punished, are becoming much more frequent, and anybody who minimizes the threat this increased intolerance for free expression poses to a democratic society is either gullibly or willfully blind. As any defender of liberty knows, nothing more quickly transforms a free society into a totalitarian prison than crackdowns on speech. Of all the tools of coercion available to a government, preventing individuals from freely expressing their thoughts is most dangerous. Denying citizens that most basic societal release valve for pent-up anger and disagreement only heightens the risk for outright violence down the line. Either silenced citizens become so enraged that conflict becomes inevitable, or the iron fist of government force descends on the public more broadly to preemptively curtail that possibility. Either way, the result is a disaster for any free society.

  For Americans who cherish free speech, this undeniable war on language and expression is jolting but not shocking. Whenever censorship slithers back into polite society, it is always draped in the mantle of “good intentions.”

  Fifteenth-century Dominican friar Girolamo Savonarola’s “bonfire of the vanities” destroyed anything that could be seen to invite or reflect sin.

  The notorious 1933 Nazi book burning at the Bebelplatz in Berlin torched some 20,000 books deemed subversive or “un-German”.

  During Communist China’s decade-long Cultural Revolution in the 1960s and ’70s, the vast majority of China’s traditional scrolls, literature and religious antiquities went up in smoke.

  All three atrocities were celebrated as achievements for the “greater good” of society, and people inebriated with “good intentions” set their cultural achievements aflame with fervor and triumph. Much like today’s new censors who claim to “fight hate” because “that’s not who we are,” the arsonists of the past saw themselves as moral paragons, too. They purged anything “obscene” or “traditional” or “old,” so that theocracy, Nazism, or communism could take root and grow. And if Western institutions today are purging ideas once again, then it is past time for people to start asking just what those institutions plan to harvest next.

  We in the West are running — not walking — toward another “bonfire of the vanities” in which normal people, egged on by their leaders, will eagerly destroy their own culture while claiming to save it. This time around the “vanities” will be condemned for their racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-science or climate-denying ways, but when they are thrown into the fire, it is dissent and free expression that will burn.

  There will one day be much disagreement as to how the same Western Civilization that produced the Enlightenment and its hallowed regard for free expression could once again surrender itself to the petty tyranny of censorship.

  Many will wonder how the West’s much-vaunted “liberal” traditions could meekly fold to the specter of state-controlled speech.

  The answer is that the West has fallen into the same trap that always catches unsuspecting citizens by surprise: the steady encroachment on free speech has been sold as a “virtue” that all good people should applaud.

  First, certain thoughts became “aggravating factors” that turned traditional crimes into new “hate crimes” deserving of additional punishment.

  Then the definition of what is “hateful” grew until politicians could comfortably decree anything at odds with their agendas to be examples of “hate.”

  Who would be for “hate,” after all? Surely no-one of good sense or good manners.

  Now “hate” has transformed into an elusive description for any speech that can be alleged to cause the slightest of harms.

  From there, it was easy for the state to decree that “disinformation,” or rather anything that can be seen to contradict the state’s own official narratives, causes “harm,” too.

  Those who despise free speech told society, “If you do not punish hate, then you’re a bigot.” And today, if you oppose the government’s COVID-19, climate change, immigration, or other contentious policies, your harmful “disinformation” must be punished, too.

  It is a slippery slope, is it not? Once governments normalize censorship and the punishment of points of view, free expression is firmly stamped with an expiration date.

  After the Nazis went down this poisonous path, repentant Germans built a public memorial to remember the book burning at the Bebelplatz and ensure its tragic lesson was never forgotten. On a plaque in the square is a commemorative engraving, paraphrasing the 19th century German writer Heinrich Heine:

  “That was only a prelude; where they burn books, they will in the end also burn people.”

  That warning comes with no expiration date.

  Tyler Durden
  Tue, 07/05/2022 – 02:00

• The People Crafting US Policy Aren't In America
  The People Crafting US Policy Aren’t In America

  Authored by Joseph Solis-Mullen via The Libertarian Institute/Mises.org,

  In a piece of news that shocked the mainstream media, but which shocked no one familiar with the academic industry writ large, retired US Army general John Allen was forced to resign as president of the Brookings Institution after it was revealed the FBI was investigating him for lobbying on behalf of the Qatari monarchy.

  Of course, the real news, scarcely noted by The Washington Post, New York Times, or any other purported paper of record, is that Allen was only really in trouble because he hadn’t fulfilled the pro forma legal requirements for those lobbying the U.S. government on behalf of a foreign agent or government.

  The Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), under which such activities are regulated, includes several exceptions that allow for such activities without declaring a conflict of interest. Think tanks, a misnomer if ever there was one, operate under an “academic exception” that allows for engagement in “bona fide religious, scholastic, academic, or scientific pursuits or the fine arts.”

  Anyone who has ever picked up one of the many deadly dull social science journals where actual, bona fide empirical academic work is done knows this constitutes perhaps a fraction of what think tanks almost daily churn out. Rather think tank commentary, touted as objective analysis, is regularly featured or cited by publications and outlets as apparently diverse as The Wall Street Journal and NPR.

  Ukraine has stepped up pleas for U.S. fighter jets, as two of the country’s top pilots left combat with Russia to lobby Washington, D.C. lawmakers.https://t.co/6mAmltCpo0

  — FLYING Magazine (@FlyingMagazine) June 27, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Of course, think tanks are hardly alone. As Ben Freeman, a specialist on foreign influence on U.S. policy, has documented, such democratic bastions of liberal values as the UAE and Saudi Arabia donate hundreds of millions, even billions, to universities around the country.

  Of course, from a libertarian perspective, who is to say who should be giving money to whom and for what? Further, FARA’s provisions are so nebulous that virtually anyone could be targeted for virtually any reason, an obvious opportunity for unaccountable federal officials to impinge on Americans’ civil liberties.

  But the blatant hypocrisy of it all is what really stands out, as the same universities and think tanks regularly decry the apparently perfidious influence of countries like China, which they breathlessly warn uses our “open institutions” for its own gain. Should any of their number dare to go off message and report, for example, on the well-documented and wholly negative influence of countries like Israel on US foreign policy, they are tarred as anti-Semites, racists, or foreign agents themselves!

  The truth is the powerful Israel and Saudi Arabia lobbies have been able to steer US policy in directions clearly at odds with the best interests of the American people for decades. Unsurprisingly, perhaps nowhere has the deleterious effect of their money been more felt than in US policy toward Iran, with the Saudis, Israelis, and Emiratis dumping literally billions of dollars into attacks on a country the United States should have normalized relations with decades ago.

  

  The Uyghur lobby is another such interest group that enjoys an open door in Congress and the op-ed pages of prominent papers—this while its nakedly paramilitary arm advocates the violent overthrow of the Beijing government! And what are we, or foreign governments like China, to think when the parent organization of such extremists, the World Uyghur Congress, takes funding from the US government itself? We aren’t supposed to think about it at all.

  Just like we aren’t supposed to question any of the other nakedly self-serving policies. Who, for example, is surprised to learn there is a large and active Ukraine lobby in Washington? That has paid off handsomely, with our government now handing over $130 million daily to Kyiv with little to no oversight.

  And of course, most maddeningly, any critically thinking American who even dares to question the US government’s obviously dangerous and counterproductive policies, bought and paid for by literal foreign agents, are themselves accused of being in the pay of Moscow, Beijing, or Tehran.

  Never mind that all the evidence points in the opposite direction.

  Again, the American people aren’t expected to think at all, only to stay in line and keep the money flowing. This is the sad state of foreign policy in America, and it happens right out in the open.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 23:30

• North Korea Shifts Blame On COVID Outbreak To "Alien Things" Coming From South Korean Border
  North Korea Shifts Blame On COVID Outbreak To “Alien Things” Coming From South Korean Border

  North Korea is blaming its Covid-19 outbreak on “alien things” near its border with South Korea.

  We guess they haven’t quite caught up to “the science” just yet.

  North Korea announced the results of an investigation into the country’s Covid origins and told its people to “vigilantly deal with alien things coming by wind and other climate phenomena and balloons in the areas along the demarcation line and borders,” according to the South China Morning Post. 

  While the official KCNA news agency didn’t mention South Korea by name, activists in South Korea have often flown balloons from the South with leaflets and humanitarian aid for those in North Korea, the report says. 

  South Korea’s unification ministry said there’s “no possibility” that the virus entered North Korea by those means. 

  

  Yet KCNA claims that one 18 year old and one 5 year old touched the materials “in a hill around barracks and residential quarters” and later showed symptoms. 

  Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul commented to the SCMP: “It’s hard to believe North Korea’s claim, scientifically speaking, given that the possibility of the virus spreading through objects is quite low.”

  Meanwhile, “the science” in the West says the risk of people getting infected through these means – specifically contaminated surfaces – is “low”, but still possible. 

  Some believe that North Korea is blaming South Korea because they can’t put the blame on China. 

  “If they concluded the virus was from China, they would have had to tighten quarantine measures on the border area in a further setback to North Korea-China trade,” said Lim Eul-chul, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University.

  Due to lack of testing supplies, North Korea has only been reporting the number of citizens with fevers. That number stands at 4.74 million people since April. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 22:45

• Supreme Court Targets The Real Enemy
  Supreme Court Targets The Real Enemy

  Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

  The flurry of rulings from the Supreme Court has everyone’s head spinning. The most significant among them, even if it doesn’t capture all the headlines, is West Virginia vs EPA. The majority opinion is impressive but the part I found truly wonderful is the concurring opinion by Neil Gorsuch.

  This is where we see things headed, toward a major and much-welcome curbing of the power of the administrative state.

  

  Just to review what this thing is, it is the unelected bureaucracy that rules the country without oversight from voters or legislatures. For well over 100 years, most courts have given it a pass, just assuming that the “experts” in the bureaucracies are handling things just fine, faithfully interpreting legislation, and merely creating rules for easy compliance.

  Generations have gone by as this 4th branch of government has grown in size, scope, and strength. For the most part, its baneful impositions have been felt by one business or one industry at a time. You have heard the stories. The car dealer complains of how the Department of Labor is making him crazy. The machine-parts manufacturer is going bonkers about letters from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. The energy company can never satisfy the Environmental Protection Agency.

  They are stories and we find them unfortunate but we’ve generally avoided thinking of these as systematic, all pervasive, and truly dangerous to the idea of freedom itself. However, there are some 432 of these agencies. The authors of the Declaration of Independence noted their existence back in the day when they accused the English king of having “erected a Multitude of new Offices, and sent hither Swarms of Officers to harass our People, and eat out their Substance.” They fought a revolution to end the tyranny but now we have a home-grown form, starting in 1883 with the Pendleton Act and continuing throughout the 20th century as each new administration creates its own bureaucracy.

  The thing has taken on a power of its own. Strangely, the topic hardly comes up at all during elections, and this is for a reason. Politicians running for office like to advertise their power to make change. They might even believe it. In reality, elected officials have very little influence over the conduct of public life relative to the administrative state. As Trump found it, not even the president is a match for the deep state.

  Here is what has happened since March 2020: the beast showed its face. Seemingly out of nowhere, these strange agencies and people for whom we never voted were ruling our lives. They restricted travel, forced us to cover our faces, closed our churches and schools, and forbid our businesses from operating unless they were big enough to afford a powerful lobbying arm in Washington. The whole scene was appalling. It caused many people—including some earnest judges—to take notice.

  Once you see the problem, you cannot unsee it.

  …

  When you consider the implications of this one decision, they are awesome. It doesn’t just apply to the EPA and its elaborate plans for changing the global climate through command and control. It also applies to every other agency, including the CDC and even the Federal Reserve itself.

  They all should be accountable to the people through their elected representatives. If we cannot get back to that system, we will lose everything.

  Read more here…

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 22:00

• A Logarithmic Map Of The Entire Observable Universe
  A Logarithmic Map Of The Entire Observable Universe

  Among the scientific community, it’s widely believed that so far humans have only discovered about 5% of the universe.

  Yet, as Visual Capitalist’s Carmen Ang details below, despite knowing about just a fraction of what’s out there, we’ve still managed to discover galaxies billions of light-years away from Earth.

  This graphic by Pablo Carlos Budassi provides a logarithmic map of the entire known universe, using data by researchers at Princeton University and updated as of May 2022.

  

  For a full-size option or to inquire about posters, please visit Pablo Carlos Budassi’s website.

  How Does the Map Work?

  Before diving in, it’s worth touching on a few key details about the map.

  First off, it’s important to note that the celestial objects shown on this map are not shown to scale. If it was made to scale with sizes relative to how we see them from Earth, nearly all of the objects would be miniscule dots (except the Moon, the Sun, and some nebulae and galaxies).

  Secondly, each object’s distance from the Earth is measured on a logarithmic scale, which increases exponentially, in order to fit in all the data.

  Within our Solar System, the map’s scale spans astronomical units (AU), roughly the distance from the Earth to the Sun. Beyond, it grows to measure millions of parsecs, with each one of those equal to 3.26 light-years, or 206,000 AU.

  Exploring the Map

  The map highlights a number of different celestial objects, including:

  • The Solar System

  • Comets and asteroids

  • Star systems and clusters

  • Nebulae

  • Galaxies, including the Milky Way

  • Galaxy clusters

  • Cosmic microwave background—radiation leftover from the Big Bang

  Featured are some recently discovered objects, such as the most distant known galaxy to date, HD1. Scientists believe this newly-discovered galaxy was formed just ​​330 million years after the Big Bang, or roughly 8.4 billion years before Earth.

  It also highlights some newly deployed spacecraft, including the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), which is NASA’s latest infrared telescope, and the Tiangong Space Station, which was made by China and launched in April 2021.

  Why is it called the “Observable” Universe?

  Humanity has been interested in space for thousands of years, and many scientists and researchers have dedicated their lives to furthering our collective knowledge about space and the universe.

  Most people are familiar with Albert Einstein and his theory of relativity, which became a cornerstone of both physics and astronomy. Another well-known scientist was Edwin Hubble, whose findings of galaxies moving away from Earth is considered to be the first observation of the universe expanding.

  But the massive logarithmic map above, and any observations from Earth or probes in space, are limited in nature. The universe is currently dated to be around 13.8 billion years old, and nothing in the universe can travel faster than the speed of light.

  When accounting for the expansion of the universe and observed objects moving away from us, that means that the farthest we can “see” is currently calculated at around 47.7 billion light-years. And since light takes time to travel, much of what we’re observing actually happened many millions of years ago.

  But our understanding of the universe is evolving constantly with new discoveries. What will we discover next?

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 21:15

• 'America, The Beautiful' Is Broken
  ‘America, The Beautiful’ Is Broken

  Authored by David Haggith via The Great Recession blog,

  The twaddle that comes out of the White House is deep right now. When our tottering president isn’t out enjoying a bike ride and falling down because Putin put gum in his stirrup so that he couldn’t get his foot out to steady himself, he is assembling a colorful team of Frisco-style professionals highly qualified in the field of transition to guide us through the vicissitudes of war, plague and famine that are swirling around the entire globe right now. (“Frisco” is the name the city loves to hate, so I chose it intentionally for a city I once found beautiful.)

  

  The LGBTQRS+++ hip chick that is the president’s talking mop at the press secretary’s podium spent her morning yesterday assuring us all that we are experiencing a “period of transition” right now — something I am sure she has much experience with — going from times of economic strength in which the vast majority of us are doing great into even better times. Thank goodness for people who can guide us through transition to understand what we are going through and where we will end up, which will be — if we follow MoJoe & Co. — coming out the opposite sex from whatever we we were when we came into this world:

  PRESS SEC: “Right now, we don’t see a recession right now. We’re not in a recession right now. Right now we’re in a transition where we are going to go into a place of stable and steady growth.” pic.twitter.com/GhSdyUUdE4

  — Breaking911 (@Breaking911) June 21, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  The primary accomplishment of Team Biden by the end of his one term that has somehow managed to be even more divisive than Trump will be to recolor the flag behind her with prettier inclusive rainbow stripes than the binary red and white that it historically displays. Until then, at least, we now know what “Build Back Better” looks like. According to Jean-Pierre, we are already there and clearly moving into even better times.

  It would be my own analysis, on the other hand, that if she and her colleagues don’t see a recession anywhere in sight, I can recommend an eye doctor for all of them. Their own Dr. Powell Fauci Magoo, who, incidentally, was also Trump’s White House physician, doesn’t seem to be serving them well. In the very least, I recommend they step outside the White House for a few moments to escape the curling rings of herb smoke that cloud their vision and take a look around. Perhaps I can provide a guided tour for her, though I am sure she will hallucinate some deep state of Democratic delusions she wants to see so that her trip is not as bad as mine or yours is and is about to be:

  What is the true state of the disunion?

  While we continue to hear, albeit less confidently now, about the economy being strong, what I see is that the economy has rarely looked worse in numerous ways. Obviously, I am not smoking the right stuff to enjoy the “economy as it ought to be” trip; but here is what I see in black and white when not blinded by so many pretty colors swimming around my head as MoJoe & Co. apparently see in theirs.

  First, I note that increasingly a number of voices in the financial press — some mainstream, some not — are starting to hum along to my familiar tune — not very loudly or clearly yet, BUT they are starting to pick it up:

  Phoenix Capital now says, “The U.S. is Already In a Recession… Here’s How to Profit From It!“

  Everything else is imploding and has been for months.

  At least, some people can see the obvious that it does not pay to see when your job (or next term) depends on your convincing everyone they are seeing something else.

  Phoenix presents as evidence the rather sharp decent of Walmart and Amazon into the ashes of retail.

  Bill “the Dud” Dudley, a former New York Fed chief and one-time vice chair of the Fed’s money-printing FOMC, says with a friendly smile, “Welcome To The Recession.” For a moment there, it almost sounded like he agreed with me that a recession is already here, but in typical bansker safety-net style he adds “in another 12-18 months.” Still, that is better eyesight than can be found in the White House. He, at least, is certain the blurry blob he sees up ahead is a recession, and for a Fed guy he’s speaking rather out of turn:

  While the Fed’s forecasts have become more plausible over time, I see several reasons to expect a much harder landing. Much like Wile E. Coyote heading off a cliff, the US economy has plenty of momentum but rapidly disappearing support. Falling back to earth will not be a pleasant experience.

  Zero Hedge

  That’s hardly anywhere near as comforting as Jean-Pierre. I think I’ll have what she’s having.

  Just to be clear, Dudley states,

  If you’re still holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing in the US economy, abandon it. A recession is inevitable within the next 12 to 18 months.

  So, not only can some people see a recession up ahead, but they are certain that it is “inevitable” and that a soft landing is a dream to be abandoned.

  The determining factors for the quality of our landing that Dudley lays out (the reasons we had better hope they line Powell’s runway with lots of bouncy houses and foam to soften the landing) are as follows:

  • First, persistent price increases have forced the Fed to shift its focus from supporting economic activity to pushing inflation back down. (“The central bank’s employment mandate is now subservient to its inflation mandate.”)

  • Second, the new focus on price stability will be relentless. (“Fed officials recognize that failing to bring inflation back down would be disastrous.”)

  • Third, the current economic expansion is uniquely vulnerable to a sudden stop. (“It’ll take time and a considerable monetary policy tightening to reduce demand and for that to translate fully into weaker production of goods and services. But when that time comes, the production adjustment is likely to be abrupt…. As inflation outstrips wage growth, the personal savings rate has plummeted, from 26.6% in March 2021 to 4.4% this April, significantly below its long-run average. No wonder consumer sentiment has fallen to levels last reached in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, and Google searches for the word “recession” are hitting new records.”)

  • Finally, economic history points to a hard landing. (“The Fed has never tightened enough to push up the unemployment rate by 0.5 percentage point or more without triggering a recession.”)

  In other words, this:

  

  Biden and his talking mop on the other hand assured us that “recession is not inevitable” and is nowhere in sight. That is because, like the coyote, they forgot to look right beneath themselves. Oops.

  Some others also see a recession as “inevitable” and see happening in the near term as “more likely than not”:

  Tesla CEO @elonmusk says “a recession is inevitable at some point.”

  He spoke to Bloomberg’s Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait in a wide ranging interview covering crypto, Trump and his aims for Twitter #QatarEconomicForumhttps://t.co/frZzx7EnPa pic.twitter.com/ErJNmspB8R

  — Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) June 21, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Since people are not inclined to take my word for it, let my have a Nobel economist (I realize they cannot usually see a recession until it is behind them) reiterate the points for me as he did earlier this week:

  “We have a situation similar to the ‘70s: excessive aggregate demand and negative supply shocks,” says Roubini Macro Associates CEO @Nouriel https://t.co/WoZPXnbPp1 #QatarEconomicForum #منتدى_قطر_الاقتصادي pic.twitter.com/bDES1U04vl

  — Bloomberg Live (@BloombergLive) June 21, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Biden, on the other hand, assured everyone on the same day that another prize of an economist, Larry Summers, assured him “there’s nothing inevitable about a recession.” Never mind that even Summers did say a recession now looks highly likely … but just not … “inevitable.”

  Over the weekend, Nomura became the first bank to place the recession squarely within 2022.

  The Atlanta Fed, meanwhile, is now prognosticating the 2nd quarter of 2022 closes with precisely zero economic growth, which will still leave us in a trough that began last quarter. If that is the case, then GDP will have continued to scrape along a ceiling that is 1.5% lower than GDP was at the start of the year, now half a year gone by, meaning we entered and remained in a GDP trough since the start of the year.

  Nomura believes a mild recession starting in Q4 2022 is now more likely than not (ZH: expect the mood to deteriorate further as “mild” eventually becomes “jarring”)…. Consumers are experiencing a significant negative sentiment shock, energy and food supply disruptions have worsened and the outlook for foreign growth has deteriorated. All these factors will likely contribute to the expected downturn.

  Zero Hedge

  Amazing. People are starting to look up and see what has been obvious all around them for months now and are finally whipping up the courage to say what they are seeing.

  Nomura believes the Fed will skid right on past the QT stopping point as predictably as Wile E. Coyote skids past the cliff edge. Biden believes, if you don”t look down, what’s down there can’t hurt you. Of course that was what he believed when he was out riding his bike, too.

  Goldman Sachs is another bank that now joins those who are humming the same tune to say, at least,

  We now see recession risk as higher and more front-load…. We are increasingly concerned that the Fed will feel compelled to respond forcefully to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations.

  Yahoo!

  How “front-load[ed]” they don’t say. They, of course, expect it to be shallow and clear up like a short cloudburst.

  Piper Sandler … shows that the typical bear market follows the start of a recession with a delay of 95 days, and eventually exhaust itself with an average total drawdown of 40% which means that current recession probably already started some time in March:

  

  Zero Hedge

  Of course, following the worst start for stocks to a year since the Great Depression…

  

  … and also the worst start since 1932 in total return terms across all asset classes…

  

  … one would be excused to ask if instead of a garden variety recession, the US isn’t rushing straight into a depression.

  Summarizes the New York Post,

  Wall Street bets are growing that the U.S. economy tumbles into a recession next year as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at the fastest pace in two decades in order to cool scorching-hot inflation. Bank of America Global Research strategists have ratcheted up the odds of an economic downturn to 40% in 2023…. “Our worst fears around the Fed have been confirmed: They fell way behind the curve and are now playing a dangerous game of catch up.”

  OK. Well, none of the banks, except the Atlanta Fed, are quite with me yet, but they are all getting closer and closer by the day.

  Now that the experts are lining up on the recession side of the fence, let’s look at a short list of major weaknesses I see in the US economy that are screaming recession is here or near:

  The auto industry remains a wreck

  In a recent article titled “The Real GDPig was a Whole Lot Uglier than it Looked!” I dug deep beneath the Bureau of Economic Asininity’s surface GDP numbers to reveal how the auto industry has been in a long slouch and was, contrary to overt claims by the BEA, a major factor in pulling the economy down last quarter and the quarter before. There was something I noted, based on loads of evidence from the BEA, that was seriously wrong with the BEAs claims about automobiles driving GDP up in Q4 and then down in Q1, probably because the industry is in such disarray that BEA doesn’t know how to sort out the anomalies in its own numbers.

  

  The auto industry has also been a major factor in the superheated CPI reports because scarcity due to lack of production has been driving up prices. Many tried to claim the auto industry was turning around, using it as a sign that the negative GDP print in Q1 was a one-off. I did not believe evidence bore that out, and that has turned out now to be the case:

  The S&P Global Sector PMI™ revealed that Automobiles & Auto Parts sector output contracted worldwide for a second successive month amid the sharpest reduction in new orders since the COVID-19 pandemic and renewed supply disruptions linked to the pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war.

  Seeking Alpha

  While that is a global production situation, it doesn’t look any better in the US:

  The U.S. light-vehicle market doesn’t appear to be in the best health. While many automakers now opt against issuing monthly sales reports, those that still do are posting some pretty brutal numbers. This does not bode well for an industry that seemed pretty certain that 2022 would be its recovery year.

  The Truth about Cars

  Manufacturers are still warning about supply constraints and an inability to manufacture at full scale. The auto industry has always been a major component in GDP and is continuing to pull it down. Some economists thought the industry would start getting back up to cruising speed this quarter. That does not appear to have been the case.

  As for sales volume, most automakers were posting double-digit declines for the month of May. Overall, the seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of sales (SAAR) for May fell dropped to a crippling low of 12.81 million, according to Motor Intelligence. That’s to be contrasted against April’s 14.6 million units and over 17 million average from May of 2021…. “The market faces a real risk of turning negative from 2021.”

  Well, that just doesn’t sound good at all, and that was the area where the optimists were most expecting some reprieve after the negative Q1 GDP print, which they chose to believe was the anomaly, rather than accept the idea that the high GDP increase in the quarter before was the clear outlier from the trend.

  Retail remains a mixed bag

  In another recent article titled “The Retail Apocalypse was Bloodier than it Looked,” I similarly described how the retail industry was a much bloodier picture than what many economists were making of it. It seemed like major retailers got ready to throw a party and one one came. Last quarter they stocked up all they could and remained laden with inventory from imports that are mistakenly thought to subtract from GDP, but that is a misunderstanding of how they are merely reconciled back out of other GDP inputs in which they are embedded.

  

  This quarter major retailers are threatening to unload, and that is seen by some as possible hope for a boom in retail; but at what price?

  America’s top retailers messed up – particularly the ones that focus on durable goods rather than groceries. Most of them released their earnings reports last month, saw shares take a beating and moved on….

  Then, the mega-retailer [Target] did something no one was expecting. On Tuesday, Target told investors it anticipated a profit margin more around 2%. It would slash prices on certain goods and cancel incoming orders. It’s highly unusual for a company to slash its profit expectations within weeks of its earnings report.

  Target said in its Tuesday press release that the profit slash comes from a need to “right-size” inventories. People aren’t buying items like televisions, outdoor furniture and kitchen appliances like they were last year….

  It’s all leading to what Forbes’ Madeline Halpert called “markdown mania,” and not just at Target. Gap is hawking $60 leggings for just $12. Target is selling televisions for 25% off and patio sets at a 52% markdown….

  The demand for random crap suddenly vanished, taking everyone by surprise.

  Freightwaves

  It is hard to imagine how massive price slashing to near-zero profit margins to unload inventory no one wants to buy is going to prove to be a positive for GDP! As reported in the headlines, GDP is measured in inflation-adjusted dollars, so I suppose the impact of the mess in retail inventories and sales will depend on how much prices are slashed and how successfully that gets consumers to pick up the unwanted merchandise. Regardless of how it impacts the GDP number, this extreme dislocation clearly speaks of a badly broken economy, not one humming along like a new car … or like new cars used to hum along. Sounds more like one that’s humming my tune.

  [ZH: An example of this is the fact that while we started the year with relatively ‘low’ inventory-to-sales, that has since exploded higher amid the ‘bullwhip’ effect…

  

  Why does this matter? Well, for a simple but critical reason: if one year ago we saw the hyperinflationary start of the bullwhip effect, we have entered the terminal phase of the “bullwhip effect”, where plunging inventory-to-sales ratios reverse violently higher, where supply chains unclog suddenly and rapidly amid a sudden chill in the economy, and where prices for so-called “core” goods collapse almost overnight, even as non-core prices (food and energy) explode even higher.]

  Something is broken. Likely it means that backlogged inventory arrived all at once a day late and many dollars short for the retailer. Lest you think I’m the only one who is struggling to rightly understand the peculiarities here, let me quote the expert in the article:

  To end, I’d like to emphasize that the vibes are abruptly off and no one really knows what’s happening.

  That’s a mess, not strength. That is log jams clearing through the ports then jamming up in warehouses, causing aberrations in how things are reported. Dysfunctional is not strong. Even executives at the…

  Gartner supply chain conference in Florida this week … were confused and not feeling very zesty…. Transportation managers canceled orders in early 2020 predicting a recession, then found their hastiness left shelves empty and consumers furious. Now that they’ve built back up, customers aren’t buying anymore and their balance sheets are destroyed. The whiplash is baffling.

  The truth is retail sucks so bad right now that even the retailers have no idea what to make of it, neither do the shippers. It’s just baffling whiplash. “Destroyed balance sheets” are not the stuff of strong economies. What we have is a trainwreck or a shipwreck, and retailers and shippers alike are struggling to figure out what to do with it and what it really means.

  Housing slides

  Housing prices and housing sales are already falling as mortgage interest has more than doubled. Consumer sentiment is already at an all-time low. (Hence the need for Jean-Pierre to tell us things are not as bad as they feel right now, and we are transitioning from great economic strength to strength that is even built back better.)

  

  The housing market isn’t at a level that will by itself put us into recession just yet, but it is certainly sliding rapidly that way … and rather all of a sudden, given that Fed interest rates are still on the hot stimulus end of the Fed’s normal scale. That is because mortgage rates our outpacing the Fed’s tweaks, anticipating where things are headed:

  The highest share of sellers on record dropped their list price during the four weeks ending June 12 as mortgage rates shot up to levels not seen since 2008….

  “The housing market isn’t crashing, but it is experiencing a hangover as it comes down from an unsustainable high,” said Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr. “Housing demand has already cooled significantly to the point that the industry has begun facing layoffs.

  “Demand from homebuyers was still extremely high as recently as February, but rates are making it really tough. Going from 3% to nearly 6% almost instantly has scared a lot of people out of the market.”

  Redfin

  Prices have stalled and have begun to follow sales down in some areas. Employment in the industry definitely has started to fall. What housing moves now foretell is that, as all the other forces mentioned above drive us quickly into recession, housing will be bringing up the rear to stomp us down deeper, given that housing the biggest GDP drivers in the US economy, being a major factor even in retail sales of all the items that get built into a house, plus all the new furniture that fills the new homes.

  So, while the Biden-Powell team are calling all of this a strong and resilient economy, you had better think twice if they try to sell you choice waterfront real estate in Florida. It’s probably not in Miami or on the Gold Coast.

  The golden oldie of America’s pride

  If America’s economy is looking strong, why is America’s most golden of all cities now referred to in The Atlantic as a “failed city?” Herb Caen, San Francisco’s “beloved old chronicler,” once said that, If he ever got to heaven, he’d look around and say, “It ain’t bad, but it ain’t San Francisco.” To read The Atlantic’s description today and many others I’ve read over the past two years, he might say today upon opening his eyes in San Francisco, “I knew I’d wind up in hell.” It’s such pretty beaten up version of the city he once loved that he would only recognize it as some upside down version of the old San Fran.

  Says a modern-day liberal chronicler,

  Progressive leaders here have been LARPing left-wing values instead of working to create a livable city. And many San Franciscans have had enough.

  Today’s scene looks so bad it may finally liberate liberals from their own liberalism. Here, too, the smoke of herb has long circled the heads of those that lead, and look at how colorfully banal it has all become:

  On a cold, sunny day not too long ago, I went to see the city’s new Tenderloin Center for drug addicts on Market Street. It’s downtown, an open-air chain-link enclosure in what used to be a public plaza. On the sidewalks all around it, people are lying on the ground, twitching. There’s a free mobile shower, laundry, and bathroom station emblazoned with the words dignity on wheels. A young man is lying next to it, stoned, his shirt riding up, his face puffy and sunburned. Inside the enclosure, services are doled out: food, medical care, clean syringes, referrals for housing. It’s basically a safe space to shoot up. The city government says it’s trying to help. But from the outside, what it looks like is young people being eased into death on the sidewalk, surrounded by half-eaten boxed lunches.

  The Atlantic

  I used to think San Francisco was America’s most beautiful major city — the golden lady in my opinion — even if too liberal for my taste. Not now. Even the people who used to feel privileged to live there want to get out of town and head for the hills … forever. As they do, Californians are taking the values that destroyed their great cities and transporting them like transplanted cancer cells to Idaho, Montana, Colorado and Wyoming so they can wreck all that is beautiful about those places, too, replacing farmlands and ranches with MacMansions and shopping centers in order to do it all over again.

  But I digress. Let it suffice for now to say, the picture of San Francisco as it has become is a pretty good metaphor for the US economy as it has become. I’ll leave you, then, with words of the modern-day chronicler above:

  During the first part of the pandemic, San Francisco County lost more than one in 20 residents—myself among them. Signs of the city’s pandemic decline are everywhere—the boarded-up stores, the ghostly downtown, the encampments. But walking these streets awakens me to how bad San Francisco had gotten even before the coronavirus hit—to how much suffering and squalor I’d come to think was normal.

  Stepping over people’s bodies, blurring my eyes to not see a dull needle jabbing and jabbing again between toes—it coarsened me. I’d gotten used to the idea that some people just want to live like that. I was even a little defensive of it: Hey, it’s America. It’s your choice….

  I’d gotten used to the crime, rarely violent but often brazen; to leaving the car empty and the doors unlocked so thieves would at least quit breaking my windows. A lot of people leave notes on the glass stating some variation of Nothing’s in the car. Don’t smash the windows….

  A couple of years ago, one of my friends saw a man staggering down the street, bleeding. She recognized him as someone who regularly slept outside in the neighborhood, and called 911. Paramedics and police arrived and began treating him, but members of a homeless advocacy group noticed and intervened. They told the man that he didn’t have to get into the ambulance, that he had the right to refuse treatment. So that’s what he did. The paramedics left; the activists left. The man sat on the sidewalk alone, still bleeding. A few months later, he died about a block away…

  In lockdown the beauty became obscene. The city couldn’t get kids back into the classroom; so many people were living on the streets; petty crime was rampant. I used to tell myself that San Francisco’s politics were wacky but the city was trying—really trying—to be good. But the reality is that with the smartest minds and so much money and the very best of intentions, San Francisco became a cruel city. It became so dogmatically progressive that maintaining the purity of the politics required accepting—or at least ignoring—devastating results….

  If you’re going to die on the street, San Francisco is not a bad place to do it. The fog keeps things temperate. There’s nowhere in the world with more beautiful views. City workers and volunteers bring you food and blankets, needles and tents. Doctors come to see how the fentanyl is progressing, and to make sure the rest of you is all right as you go.

  It’ll all get so much better when the water from the parched Colorado River is completely shut off later this summer, driving LA water-mob slobs to storm SF to get their hand’s on some liquid that may soon sell for more than the city’s old gold. The old lady, drowning in wokeness and tears and suffocating in the worn-out wraps of her own regulations and process has been laid to rest in a graveyard of intentional squalor for the sake of the impoverished at a cost of $60,000 per tent space born by the SF taxpayers. I’m sure the tolerance of criminal decline seen in the “smash and grabs” I wrote about at the start of the year for RT.com didn’t help. May she Rest In Rainbows as a testament to all that is dying in liberal, woke Amerika.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 20:30

• Here's What We Know About Highland Park Shooting Person Of Interest Robert Crimo
  Here’s What We Know About Highland Park Shooting Person Of Interest Robert Crimo

  Update (2330ET): Robert Crimo III was taken into custody Monday evening following a shooting in Highland Park, Illinois that left at least six people dead and over two dozen injured despite having among the strictest gun-safety laws in the country.

  He is currently being referred to as a “person of interest” while Highland Park Police question him.

  

  The 22-year-old was apprehended without incident in nearby Lake Forest.

  Law enforcement currently circling and inspecting vehicle driven by person of interest, 22-yo Robert “Bobby” Crimo III

  He’s now in custody related to #HighlandPark parade mass shooting that killed at least 6

  LIVE NOW: https://t.co/vEMDs0BRQH | @cbschicago pic.twitter.com/kHdev8CGSy

  — Marissa Parra (@MarParNews) July 5, 2022

  Crimo has somewhat of a large internet footprint – performing online as “Awake the Rapper,” while IMDB describes Crimo as a “six foot Hip hop phenom” born on Sept. 20, 2000. “He’s the middle child of three and of Italian descent,” Fox News reports.

  Crimo began uploading his music to the internet at age 11, but first gained traction with his 2016 track “By The Pond” featuring Atlas, according to IMDB. His estimated net worth is “$100 thousand.”

  Crimo is the son of Bob Crimo, president at Bob’s Pantry & Deli in Highland Park. According to his Facebook account, the father ran for Highland Park mayor in 2020.

  The rapper released a cryptic track called “Are You Awake” on Oct. 15, 2021. The track appears to suggest that Crimo was planning a life-defining act beyond his ability to stop. The video includes drawings of a man aiming a rifle at another person. -Fox News

  A screenshot from Robert “Bobby” Crimo’s youtube video “Are You Awake”. This was premeditate. What a sick individual. pic.twitter.com/tYJRjoSIQz

  — xen (@itssxen) July 4, 2022

  The suspect in the Highland Park shooting, Robert Crimo III, posted multiple disturbing videos on YouTube with violent imagery.

  “Like a sleepwalker unable to stop and think, my actions will be valiant. And my thought is unnecessary. I know what I have to do.” pic.twitter.com/CROskei1Vh

  — steven monacelli (@stevanzetti) July 4, 2022

  He also “liked” several tweets endorsing the arrest of “every Congressmember who helped organize January 6th,” suggesting he’s a leftist.

  

  On the other hand:

  

  I think Robert Crimo is a psycho. Planned it all out to look like he’s both a Trump supporter and a Biden supporter. Perhaps a true accelerationist. He’s got everyone squabbling over his politics but at the end of the day he killed innocents and represents no one but himself.

  — Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) July 5, 2022

  Crimo’s Instagram, Discord, Twitter, YouTube and other social media platforms have taken down his material.

  *  *  *

  Update (2010ET): Robert Cremo III, the suspect in Monday’s deadly shooting at the Highland Park, IL 4th of July parade, has been taken into custody according to CBS Chicago.

  JUST IN: Sources tell us Robert Cremo III has been taken into custody. @cbschicago

  — Chris Tye (@TVTye) July 4, 2022

  #HighlandPark pic.twitter.com/cuzxo3lEjh

  — Darren (@ChiTownCheese) July 4, 2022

  

  JUST IN: Police take Highland Park parade shooting “person of interest” Robert (Bobby) Crimo into custody. pic.twitter.com/sBBGVVM3lP

  — Rob Elgas (@RobElgasABC7) July 4, 2022

  “No guns for people that look like this” would pass unanimously pic.twitter.com/l0FSIQY0Za

  — Andy Swan (@AndySwan) July 4, 2022

  *  *  *

  Update (1900ET): Police have announced Robert “Bobby” Crimo III as a person of interest in Monday’s shooting in Highland Park, Illinois.

  More photos of Robert “Bobby” Crimo III, the person of interest in the #HighlandPark, Illinois July 4th parade massacre: pic.twitter.com/obLluPKpYX

  — Andy Ngô 🏳️‍🌈 (@MrAndyNgo) July 4, 2022

  ILLINOIS: Robert “Bobby” Crimo III, 22, sought in connection with Highland Park mass shooting. Suspect vehicle is a silver 2010 Honda Fit with IL plate DM80653. Call 911 if seen. (Source: FBI) pic.twitter.com/ykICW6W1SX

  — U.S. Emergency Alert (@ENSAlerts) July 4, 2022

  Another disturbing video of the Highland Park shooter Robert “Bobby” Crimo #HighlandPark https://t.co/uxHEJorczg pic.twitter.com/rp0sQ9DTV5

  — Catalaya Heisenberg (@catalayahere) July 4, 2022

  This account “@awake_________” appears to be a long-standing fan page for the highland park shooter Robert crimo. if you look through the old likes it shows a lot of radical left wing extremism and guns, and hatred of republicans pic.twitter.com/M56ghGQScq

  — America Respector (@frenchpoast) July 4, 2022

  A catalog of online material from Robert Crimo, cataloged by @crabcrawler1 (click on tweet to jump into thread).

  “Robert Crimo Archive Footage: File 1447” pic.twitter.com/HdkHixK5h4

  — Crab Man (@crabcrawler1) July 4, 2022

   

  *  *  *

  Update (1605ET): The death toll has increased to 6, with 24 injured.

  Another shot from the Highland Park mass shooting.

  Hadn’t seen this clip on here.
  Sounds like nearly 60 shots fired in this one alone. pic.twitter.com/X66gqEiGHD

  — Jake (@SiIentRunning) July 4, 2022

  Update (1341ET): Five people were dead and 16 others wounded when a gunman opened fire on a Fourth of July parade that kicked off Monday afternoon in Highland Park, a city in the southeastern part of Lake County, Illinois, according to the Chicago Sun-Times. 

  The Highland Park Police Department said the shooter is still on the loose. They urged people to seek shelter. 

  BREAKING: Police have issued the following description of a shooter who is wearing an army-style yellow backpack.

  The shooter opened fire on the crowd from the rooftop of a nearby building, killing at least 4 people at the Illinois Highland Park 4th of July Parade. pic.twitter.com/M2QUhkf9Ky

  — BNN Newsroom (@BNNBreaking) July 4, 2022

  Highland Park resident, Miles Zaremski, said: “I heard 20 to 25 shots, which were in rapid succession. So it couldn’t have been just a handgun or a shotgun.”

  Zaremski said he saw “people in that area that got shot,” including “a woman covered with blood . . . She did not survive.”

  Highland Park Shooting:
  – At least 5 dead, 16 injured, following mass shooting at July 4th parade in Highland Park, Illinois
  – Suspect is at large
  – Authorities have secured a perimeter around Downtown Highland Parkpic.twitter.com/f52pnNHnjo

  — PM Breaking News (@PMBreakingNews) July 4, 2022

  Debbie Glickman, another resident, told Associated Press she was on a parade float when she turned around and saw people running away from the area. 

  “People started saying, ‘There’s a shooter, there’s a shooter, there a shooter,'” Glickman said. “So we just ran. We just ran. It’s like mass chaos down there.”

  * * * 

  A Chicago suburb canceled what was left of its 4th of July celebration after gunfire erupted during a parade in the affluent neighborhood of Highland Park, according to NBC5 Chicago.

  

  The Chicago Sun Times reports that multiple people were shot.

  A Sun-Times reporter saw blankets placed over three bloodied bodies. Other people, running, were visibly bloodied. Police told people: “Everybody disburse, please. It is not safe to be here.”

  

  Cops are still going to the scene pic.twitter.com/gL3Gjhil7V

  — eNreeKaii (@Ri_Kayyy) July 4, 2022

  #BREAKING: Multiple fatalities reported following reports of an active shooter during a Fourth of July parade in Highland Park, Illinois.

  Reports that the suspect is barricaded inside of a Sunset Foods grocery with hostages.

  pic.twitter.com/HWIl6G7DFk https://t.co/tODYGnZ2G2

  — Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) July 4, 2022

  “STAY OUT OF THE AREA – allow law-enforcement and first responders to do their work,” posted the sheriff on social media, while Illinois state police called the situation “active.”

  Witnesses say the shooter was on the roof of Uncle Dan’s and fired into parade. 5 or 6 shots, then a pause, then 5 or 6 more shots. The shooter is still at large and North Shore residents are being asked to stay inside. #highlandpark @WGNNews

  — Dan Ponce (@DanPonceTV) July 4, 2022

  More via the Sun Times:

  Several witnesses said they heard multiple shots fired. One witness said he counted more than 20 shots.

  Miles Zaremski, a Highland Park resident, told the Sun-Times: “I heard 20 to 25 shots, which were in rapid succession. So it couldn’t have been just a handgun or a shotgun.”

  Zaremski said that after the shots at Central Avenue around Second Avenue in downtown Highland Park, he saw “people in that area that got shot,” including “a woman covered with blood . . . She did not survive.”

  …

  Police were patrolling the area with rifles, apparently looking for whoever fired the shots.

  Adrienne Drell, a former Sun-Times reporter, said she was sitting on a curb along Central Avenue watching the parade when she saw members of the Highland Park High School marching band start to run.

  “Go to Sunset,” Drell said she heard the students shout, directing people to nearby Sunset Food.

  A man picked her up off the curb and urged her to get out, Drell said.

  “The Illinois State Police is currently assisting Highland Park PD with an active shoot situation that occurred at the Highland Park Parade,” tweeted the police. “The public is advised to avoid the area of Central Ave and 2nd St. in Highland Park.”

  Shotting in highland park 4th of July parade. pic.twitter.com/oCfhzfKRZj

  — Hugo Aguilar (@Hugo_Aguilar6) July 4, 2022

  The city of Highland Park also cautioned people to avoid the area, writing on Facebook: “Fourth Fest has been canceled. Please avoid downtown Highland Park. More information will be shared as it becomes available.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 20:13

• San Francisco Couple Gets $1,500 Fine For Parking In Their Own Driveway
  San Francisco Couple Gets $1,500 Fine For Parking In Their Own Driveway

  Things really seem to be going “uphill” in San Francisco. A couple from the city, who has parked in the same spot “every day for the last 36 years” was ticketed $1,542 for parking in their own driveway this month. 

  As many people do, the couple lives on a hill in a city where parking is always at a premium. The couple has been parking in the carpad in front of their house – which they say has been there since the house was built in 1910. 

  But now the city planning department is saying it is “illegal to park in the front yard of a house” and threatened further tickets should the couple – Judy and Ed Craine – continue to park where they have been. 

  “We always use the carport,” Judy told ABC 7 San Francisco. “Parked in that driveway every day and every night,” Ed added. “We got this email saying we can’t park in the pad anymore. I said what, that’s crazy.”

  Judy continued: “It was very surprising, to say the least. I wrote them back saying I thought this was a mistake.”

  

  But the city planning department confirmed the ticket. “And if we were found parking there again, it would be a $1,500 fine,” Judy added. 

  Ed asked: “Why are you taking away something that has great utility? To all of a sudden to be told you can’t use something that we could use for years. It’s, it’s startling. Inexplicable.”

  The city planning committee then made the couple prove that parking there was a historic use on the lot, so the couple started digging. “We could be grandfathered in. If we show them a historical photo that showed a car… or a horse-drawn buggy in the carport,” Judy said. 

  And the couple came up with a photo from 1938 which shows a car or buggy pulling into his driveway. But the planning department told them the photo was too fuzzy and that it couldn’t be used as evidence. 

  Today, their carpad sits empty and the couple is forced to park on the hill. “The onus is on us to prove we’re innocent… though I don’t feel guilty,” Judy concluded. 

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 19:45

• Saudi Ex-Spymaster Pens Scathing Op-Ed On "Rethinking The Global Order"
  Saudi Ex-Spymaster Pens Scathing Op-Ed On “Rethinking The Global Order”

  With Saudi Arabia reportedly in discussions to join BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China), and President Biden set to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) – who he vowed to make “the pariah, that they are” during the 2020 elections over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi – a July 4 Op-Ed by former Saudi spymaster Turki bin Faisal Al Saud over the current state of affairs may provide key insight at this particular moment in geopolitics.

  

  In short, while fundamentally endorsing the UN’s globalist agenda, Al Saud argues that those leading the current international order have “failed to live up to the principles of good governance enshrined in the UN charter,” and that hypocritical world leaders “need to come to their senses” and reform “deeper structural problems” in order to adapt to the new, multipolar order pushed by Russia an dChina.

  “Our organizing principles still reflect the mentality of the post-war and Cold War era,” he argues, citing a UN report that concluded major reforms were needed.

  Authored by Turki bin Faisal Al Saud via Project Syndicate (emphasis ours),

  For decades, it has been obvious that the UN system needs to be reformed to account for the realities of the twenty-first century. Yet recommendations to restructure global governance have been ignored by those with the power to carry them out, leaving us with a world of multiplying crises for which there are few solutions.

  BAKU – Just as the world was beginning to recover from one of the biggest crises in recent decades, another one has erupted in Europe. Just as the COVID-19 pandemic underscored our common humanity, Russia’s war on Ukraine has reminded us of how fragile, interconnected, and interdependent our world is. As the Chinese say, “All is one under heaven.”

  Intensifying great-power confrontations and deglobalization are jeopardizing world peace and security. New crises seem to be lurking around every corner, but appropriate solutions are nowhere to be seen – not in the Far East, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe, or Latin America. The popular mood has darkened, reinvigorating populism, nationalism, Islamophobia, and other atavistic trends that threaten the progressive achievements humanity has made since World War II.

  The Ukraine crisis itself is a symptom of deeper structural problems in the international order. That order, led by the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), has failed to live up to the principles of good governance enshrined in the UN Charter.

  New global orders tend to emerge from major wars. In the case of WWII, the victors created structures designed to preserve international peace and security. But while our increasingly integrated world has changed dramatically since the UN’s founding, our organizing principles still reflect the mentality of the post-war and Cold War era. Within the current framework, a failure to respond to global challenges is a failure of the entire international community.

  Can the system be reformed? Calls since the early 1990s to restructure the UN system – the avatar for the broader international order – have consistently fallen on deaf ears. Worse, Russia and China are now using their seats at the helm of the international order to push for a more multipolar system. Rather than working to reform the current framework, they are challenging its validity.

  Humanity’s collective achievements over the past seven decades are a testament to why we must work together to make the UN system more fair, inclusive, and attentive to people’s needs and aspirations. Indeed, that was the mission of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change in 2003.

  Consisting of 16 eminent figures from different parts of the world, and chaired by former Thai Prime Minister Anand Panyarachun, the panel analyzed contemporary threats to international peace and security; evaluated how well existing policies and institutions had done in addressing those threats; and offered recommendations aimed at strengthening the UN and enabling it to provide collective security for the twenty-first century.

  The panel’s final report made clear that all of the UN’s principal organs needed reform, including the Security Council, which the panel argued should be expanded. Unfortunately, the Security Council’s veto-wielding permanent members simply ignored the panel’s recommendations, setting the stage for today’s paralysis and dysfunction.

  The Middle East is especially in need of a well-functioning, genuinely representative UN system. No region has suffered more from the unfair bipolar and unipolar dynamics of the past. We have been the altar on which the principles of the international order are routinely sacrificed. The same principles that led to the creation of the State of Israel also led to the Palestinians being deprived of their homeland and denied their basic rights to self-determination and statehood.

  As the Middle East has gone from one war to another, from one catastrophe to another, and from one UN resolution to another, justice has continuously eluded it. Every time an Arab, Muslim, or Middle Eastern issue comes up, the hypocrisy of the great powers that lead the international order becomes crystal clear.

  The leaders of those powers need to come to their senses. Reforming the existing order requires new thinking by all UN member states, including the Security Council’s five permanent members. The international order can preserve peace and security only to the extent that it is equitable and capable of meeting the challenges that humanity faces. Short of that, geopolitical upheavals will continue to threaten world peace and security.

  *  *  *

  His Royal Highness Turki bin Faisal al-Saud, Chairman of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, was the Director General of Al Mukhabarat Al A’amah, Saudi Arabia’s intelligence agency from 1977 to 2001, and has served as Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom and the United States.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 19:00

• Dear America, Happy Birthday, Kind Regards From The Brits
  Dear America, Happy Birthday, Kind Regards From The Brits

  Here in the UK we should celebrate American Independence with more enthusiasm.

  

  After all, as MorningPorridge.com’s Bill Blain explains, it was an absolute stroke of genius – on our part!

  Independence Day was the culmination of our great plan to improve the UK. It was brilliant for its time. Over centuries we’d come to realise the main issues in the UK were down to a whole host of conflicting demographic and people problems – which we easily solved by exporting them elsewhere.

  In the 1600s the new Britain (not yet the United Kingdom) emerged from millennia of mostly slaying each other: Britons against Saxons, Saxon against Angles, Angles against Scots, Scots against Picts, Everyone against Vikings, Scotland vs England, Britain against Spain, France and anyone else wanting to have a go, Religious Wars and Civil Wars.

  Suddenly, peace (of a sort) broke out. The aristocracy moved from damp draughty castles into nice modern stately homes. The peasantry moved from disease riven mud-hovels into brick-built boxes in new cities. People stopped dying of preventable diseases and a lack of soap, and the population began to boom.

  The UK is a small island, and we don’t really have the space. We wanted to avoid the kind of unpleasantness we’d seen generated by civil wars, rebellions and overly dangerous political and religious ideas – like levelling up or social equality, questioning the divine authority of kings, or further outbreaks of religious intolerance.

  Hence, we came up with the wizard wheeze of exporting all the useless pains-in-our-backsides to New World across the Atlantic. So:

  • We got rid of surplus impoverished second, third and n+1 sons of the minor aristocracy (drones by any standard), and the middle classes by offering them land in the fertile south and shipping them off to found new agricultural estates.

  • We winnowed the cities of surplus labour by offering “opportunity” in the new world – shipping them off to work the land, build the cities and direct the industry and commerce of the new provinces.

  • We got rid of our religious nutters. The frankly dull, boring and mostly harmless ones dressed in black were shipped off to the new world and promised they could do whatever they wished in terms of their religion. They happily established themselves in New England and in typical Puritan style started burning old women as witches because the milk had gone sour. The more radical Catholic dissenters were shipped south.

  • The Scottish/English borderers – who’d spent centuries raiding each other – were offered Northern Ireland, or if particularly violent, given land in the New World with added attraction of being able to fight the French to the West and North.

  And every time we experienced a national tragedy, like wars and clearances in Scotland, or famine in Ireland – there was plenty of space for the inconvenient survivors in the colonies. As the colonies grew, it was easy to persuade bright young folk that a lifetime spent paying back the costs of their economic migration was worthwhile.

  Brilliant. Britain’s population excess solved.

  We got rid of our unnecessary surplus, and foisted them off on the Americas.. which then had the absolute temerity to complain about being taxed by London. Ungrateful little tykes. Enough is enough. Despite the fact we’d help them get established and protected them from the marauding French, we had our second genius moment. Why pay for the America’s to be our national dumping ground…? Let them pay for themselves!

  So we engineered a rather lame revolution, helped them write a rather ironic constitution that befuddles them still to this day, persuaded them to sort themselves out by adopting ridiculous political structures, and left them to get on with it, confident, in time they’d see things our way and become an English Speaking bastion on the unfashionable side of the Atlantic..

  Which from our perspective; has pretty much panned out as planned.

  But the fervid mix of hotheads, genetic misfits, bad ideas and even worse behaviours we shipped out do seem to be battering into each other rather appallingly these days.. 

  With all that in mind, in an effort to be fair and balanced, we give the last few words to American artist Ben Garrison, who reminds us all that ‘a house divided cannot stand’, so “choose wisely”…

  

  The Fourth of July used to stand for all Americans coming together to celebrate our independence day from tyranny.

  Now, too many demand the return of the very same tyranny our forefathers rebelled against. We’ve been around long enough and seen enough independence days to notice that America is now more divided than ever.

  In our younger days we observed how Democrats and Republicans didn’t often agree with each other, but such disagreements were done with a certain modicum of class and mutual respect. Both parties placed the overall interests of America first. This is no longer the case.

  Biden said he was not a ’nationalist’ and he placed globalism above America’s interests.

  Biden does not want to make America great again. It’s why we’re seeing such high gas prices at the pumps. It’s why we’re involved in another war that does not serve our interests. Biden doesn’t want America to be energy independent. He wants the globalist’s ‘climate change’ agenda to be forced upon us regardless of the consequences. Biden doesn’t want to control the borders. He wants America overrun and its middle class destroyed. The Democrats want everyone dependent on Big Government. Under Obama and now Biden, the Democrats hate America outright. They especially hate what it once stood for—freedom and liberty. Patriots were called ‘bitter clingers’ by Obama.

  The anti-American ‘woke’ Democrats want statues that commemorate America’s history pulled down. They want ‘green’ energy, which means much higher gas prices. They want more crime and wide open borders, an endless war a half a world away, abortion on demand, and even the end the very family structure itself. They are blurring and destroying the very definition of what men and women are, the Democrats have shown that they are anti-human. They urge women to get abortions in order to stay in the corporate workplace. This is anti-family.

  Many ‘RINO’ Republicans work with the Democrats, but overall the two parties are more divided than ever.

  We don’t see much changing that would remedy this situation. Our country is not going to come together again. The Democrats continue to impeach and impugn their arch-enemy, Trump, even though he’s not in office. They’ve resorted to the crassest lies to ensure he doesn’t run again and if they keep stealing elections, real fireworks will eventually begin.

  Our forefathers objected to taxation without representation and we must do the same if our Constitution is ignored while tyranny, criminality, and corruption run rampant among those who would rule us.

  With this is mind, cherish your families and this Independence Day weekend, don’t let it be your last.

  *  *  *

  Support Ben Garrison Cartoons with a One time donation! Keep Cartoons Online Click to Donate!

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 18:15

• LA City Council Votes To Ban Homeless Encampments Near Schools
  LA City Council Votes To Ban Homeless Encampments Near Schools

  Via The Epoch Times,

  A hearing to reconsider an ordinance banning homeless encampments within 500 feet of schools and daycare centers is set for July 27 after the Los Angeles City Council failed to give the proposal its unanimous approval.

  

  The council voted 10-1 in favor of the ordinance, with Councilman Mike Bonin dissenting. Since the vote was not unanimous, the matter will return to the council for a second vote following the summer recess.

  The vote on June 1 came during a sometimes-raucous meeting that was repeatedly interrupted by shouting from the audience.

  The ordinance is an amendment to the city’s sweeping law regulating the location of homeless encampments. Municipal Code 41.18 prohibits sitting, sleeping, lying or otherwise obstructing the public right of way in several areas of the city.

  Those areas include within 2 feet of any fire hydrant or fire plug; within 5 feet of any operational or utilizable entrance or exit; within 10 feet of a loading dock or driveway; in a manner that interferes with any activity for which the city has issued a permit or restricts accessible passage as required by the Americans with Disabilities Act; or anywhere within a street, including bike paths.

  The law already protects the public right of way within 500 feet of “sensitive” facilities such as schools, day care facilities, parks and libraries—but only if each specific location is designated by the council for enforcement.

  The amendment given tentative approval on July 1, and approved last week by the council’s Homelessness and Poverty Committee, is a blanket ban on encampments within 500 feet of all schools.

  Councilmen Mitch O’Farrell and Paul Krekorian spoke in favor of the ordinance, dismissing allegations by opponents that the council is only trying to cover up the homelessness issue rather than address it through housing and services.

  Multiple opponents of the measure began shouting from the audience as the councilmen spoke, bringing the meeting to a halt while Council President Nury Martinez issued warnings then ordered at least three people to be ejected from the council chamber. O’Farrell and Krekorian, both visibly angered, said the conduct exemplified the “bullying” tactics of some organizations. O’Farrell accused them of spreading “disinformation.”

  “You can protest all you want, but it doesn’t change the truth,” O’Farrell said. “The truth is the city is engaged in housing people. It is our focus.”

  Krekorian added, “These bullies who want to disrupt our business do not want to acknowledge that kind of success.”

  “We need to move forward with common-sense solutions,” he said.

  “We are not criminalizing homelessness at all with this change. We are taking actions necessary to restore some degree of sanity and civility to our streets, and at the very same time we are protecting the young people of this city.”

  Bonin opposed the measure, suggesting that it will just move the homeless around and adding, “Making it less visible doesn’t make it go away.”

  “In some ways we actually make it worse,” he said. “By displacing people we actually disconnect people” from housing and other services.

  Councilman Joe Buscaino proposed the idea of an encampment ban near schools last year, but it never gained traction. The issue was revived earlier this year, in part due to the urging of Los Angeles Unified School District Superintendent Alberto Carvalho, who said teachers, principals and parents have expressed concerns about homeless encampments near campuses.

  “I’ve seen elementary schools with conditions that none of us as parents would find acceptable for children. Individuals with mental illness, some of them absolutely unclothed, shouting profanities in the listening ear of children,” Carvalho told the council previously.

  Buscaino, who sits on the Homelessness and Poverty Committee, said last week that approving the amendment will “ensure the most sacred places among us, our playgrounds and schools, are safe.”

  Numerous speakers appeared at the council meeting to speak on both sides of the issue.

  Supporters of the ordinance, including some parents and school workers, said the issue is a matter of safety for children who must walk by encampments on their way to classes.

  One parent and school worker told the council it “will help reduce the risk that my students, their families and my colleagues face on a daily basis because of the criminal activity that has been happening.”

  A school principal told the council the encampments expose students to “unsafe, unsanitary conditions.”

  Opponents said the move is a criminalization of homelessness. Some called it a vast expansion of an already restrictive ordinance restricting the movements of a homeless population in need of services and housing.

  “This isn’t about fixing homelessness, it’s about aesthetics,” one opponent said.

  The city ordinance already in place also prohibits encampments and sleeping in the following areas:

  • up to 500 feet of a designated overpass, underpass, freeway ramp, tunnel, bridge, pedestrian bridge, subway, wash or spreading ground, railroad track or where lodging unsheltered or in tents is unhealthy, unsafe and incompatible with safe passage.

  • up to 1,000 feet of a facility opened after Jan. 1, 2018, that provides shelter, safe sleeping, safe parking or navigation centers for persons experiencing homelessness.

  The ordinance also allows the city to prevent encampments for a period of no longer than one year in areas that are deemed an ongoing threat to public health or safety, including due to:

  • death or serious bodily injury of any person at the location due to a hazardous condition.

  • repeated serious or violent crimes or threats of serious or violent crimes, including human trafficking.

  • fires at the location.

  People who violate the ordinance face an infraction or citation, but “a person who willfully resists, delays or obstructs a city employee from enforcing this section or who willfully refuses to comply after being requested to do so by an authorized city employee” can face higher fines and a misdemeanor charge, according to the ordinance.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 17:30

• Biden's Job Approval Enters Marianas Trench
  Biden’s Job Approval Enters Marianas Trench

  As we celebrate America’s founding on this 4th of July, mired in inflation that’s simply ‘not his fault,’ President Joe Biden also marks a special occasion – his lowest job approval ratings, ever – all while American pride hits a new low.

  

  According to a new CIVIQS rolling job-approval poll, Biden’s job approval has plummeted to 30% – with 57% flatly disapproving of the job he’s doing.

  

  Broken down by age group, just 22% of those aged 18-34 approve of the job Biden is doing, 27% for those 35-49, and 32% of those aged 50-64 thought Biden was doing an ok job. Where’s Biden’s support coming from? Old people – as 39% of those over the age of 65-years-old think Biden’s handling his job well.

  

  By political party, 85% of Democrats approve of the way Biden is doing his job, 5% disapprove, and 10% neither approve or disapprove, while 97% of Republicans disapprove vs. 2% who approve (with 2% who neither approve or disapprove). Among independent voters, 59% disapprove, 31% approve, and 10% neither approve or disapprove.

  According to an aggregate of polls tracked by RealClear Politics, Biden’s approval ratings continue to plummet in comparison to former President Donald Trump at the same point in his term.

  

  On the bright side, no more mean tweets.

  

  As William Campenni notes in American Thinker:

  It is so sad today to see a dystopian minority, aided by a dysfunctional media establishment, a depraved polity, and a disloyal corporate class, trash all that is so good in the land wherein they fortunately but ungratefully live.  Could not they too join in to say, “I swell with pride and deep within my breast, I thrill to see Old Glory paint the breeze”?

  Put another way:

  As you celebrate the 4th tomorrow, remember our President’s inspiring words about this great nation. pic.twitter.com/EcNoXNuY8l

  — Bill D’Agostino (@Banned_Bill) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 17:00

• Twitter 'Silenced' Physicians Who Posted Truthful Information About COVID, Lawsuit Alleges
  Twitter ‘Silenced’ Physicians Who Posted Truthful Information About COVID, Lawsuit Alleges

  Authored by Megan Redshaw via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

  Three physicians are suing Twitter, alleging the company violated its own terms of service and community standards when it suspended their accounts for posting “truthful statements regarding COVID-19 policy, diagnosis and/or treatment.”

  Drs. Robert Malone, Peter McCullough and Bryan Tyson on Monday filed the lawsuit in Superior Court in California, San Francisco County.

  

  The complaint alleges Twitter breached the terms of its contract when it permanently suspended the plaintiffs’ accounts, silenced their voices and failed to provide them with “verified” badges.

  Plaintiffs allege Twitter’s actions were a substantial factor in causing them harm, and are asking the judge to order Twitter to reactivate their accounts.

  All three doctors are represented by attorneys Bryan M. Garrie and Matthew P. Tyson (no relation to the plaintiff, Bryan Tyson).

  Matthew Tyson on May 12, sent a letter to the directors and managing agents of Twitter requesting the company reinstate the accounts of five physicians, including the plaintiffs, and provide them with “verified” badges. Twitter failed to respond.

  In the letter, Matthew Tyson acknowledged Twitter is a “private company” and its terms state it can “suspend user accounts for any or no reason.”

  “However, Twitter also implemented specific community standards to limit COVID-19 misinformation on the platform, and Twitter was bound to follow those terms,” he added.

  According to the complaint, Twitter’s content-moderation terms included removal procedures for ineffective treatments and false diagnostic criteria, and measures for “labeling” information as “misleading.”

  Twitter has a “five-strike policy” as part of its COVID-19 misinformation guidelines and community standards.

  Twitter’s website states:

  “The consequences for violating our COVID-19 misleading information policy depend on the severity and type of the violation and the account’s history of previous violations. In instances where accounts repeatedly violate this policy, we will use a strike system to determine if further enforcement actions should be applied.”

  Strike 1 is “no account-level action.” Strike 2 results in a 12-hour account lock. Strike 3 results in another 12-hour account lock. Strike 4 results in a seven-day account lock and five or more strikes lead to permanent suspension.

  Plaintiffs claim they relied on Twitter to employ and enforce its terms in good faith and it was foreseeable to Twitter that plaintiffs would rely on the terms the company is obligated to follow.

  According to the complaint, a “truthful tweet regarding COVID-19 policy, diagnosis and/or treatment” would not violate Twitter’s terms of service, community standards, content moderation policies or misinformation guidelines.

  “None of these physicians posted false or misleading information, nor did they receive five strikes before suspension,” Matthew Tyson stated in his letter to Twitter.

  “It’s no accident that Twitter violated its own COVID-19 misinformation guidelines and suspended the accounts of Drs. Zelenko, Malone, Fareed, Tyson and McCullough,” he wrote.

  The letter stated:

  “Twitter received express and implied threats from government officials to censor certain viewpoints and speakers, lest Twitter face the amendment or revocation of Section 230, or antitrust enforcement. This was a financial decision for Twitter.

  “For the sake of profits, it chose to abandon its role as a neutral internet service provider and instead openly and intentionally collude with government to silence lawful speech.”

  In an email to The Defender, lead attorney Garrie and co-counsel Matthew Tyson said:

  “In this political climate, honesty is a rare commodity, and concerns over new and experimental vaccines and drug therapies and the safety and effectiveness of alternative outpatient treatments should be the subject of full and transparent public debate.

  “Drs. Malone, Tyson and McCullough are highly qualified and credentialed physicians and scientists who posted truthful information on Twitter that contradicted the mainstream narrative regarding COVID-19 policy, diagnosis, and treatment.

  “They shared fact-based information which furthered an important public interest as people around the world try to decide how to treat themselves and their loved ones for COVID-19. Twitter silenced them.

  “Our clients seek to hold Twitter liable not as a Section 230 publisher, but as a counterparty to a contract, as a promisor who has breached the very terms it put in place to moderate tweets. We will hold Twitter accountable in court and prove the truth of our clients’ statements for the world to see.”

  Twitter Refused to Verify Physicians’ Accounts

  In addition to being suspended from Twitter, the company refused to verify the plaintiffs’ accounts even though the accounts met Twitter’s criteria for verification.

  To be verified, an account must be “notable and active.”

  Twitter defines a notable account to include “activists, organizers, and other influential individuals,” including “prominently recognized individuals.”

  According to the complaint, Malone is an “internationally recognized scientist and physician” who completed a fellowship at Harvard Medical School as a global clinical research scholar and was scientifically trained at the University of California and Salk Institute Molecular Biology and Virology laboratories.

  Malone is the “original inventor of mRNA vaccination technology, DNA vaccination and multiple non-viral DNA and RNA/mRNA platform delivery technologies,” and has “roughly 100 scientific publications, which have been cited more than 12,000 times.”

  He holds an “outstanding” impact factor rating on Google Scholar and sits as a non-voting member on the National Institutes of Health [Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines] committee, which is tasked with managing clinical research for a variety of drug and antibody treatments for COVID-19.

  The complaint states Malone used his Twitter account to post truthful statements regarding COVID-19 policy, diagnosis and/or treatment. He received no strikes for his content and he did not violate Twitter’s rules, yet his account was permanently suspended.

  McCullough, according to the complaint, is a highly accomplished physician who is the founder and current president of the Cardiorenal Society of America.

  He has been “published more than 1,000 times, made presentations on the advancement of medicine across the world and has been an invited lecturer at the New York Academy of Sciences, the National Institutes of Health, U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency.”

  McCullough has also served on the editorial boards of multiple specialty journals and was a member or chair of data safety monitoring boards of 24 randomized clinical trials.

  He was a “leader in the medical response to COVID-19, has more than 30 peer-reviewed publications on the infection, and has commented and testified extensively on COVID19 treatment, including before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs,” the lawsuit states.

  McCullough’s account was suspended, but Twitter allowed him to create a new account that is followed by more than 480,000 people. Yet, he is still unable to receive a “verified” badge.

  In a June 28 tweet, McCullough said “trouble is on the horizon for the “common carrier” whose only role is to provide a platform for communications operations,” referring to the lawsuit.

  Tyson is a licensed physician with15 years of hospital and emergency medicine experience. He practices with Dr. George Fareed, who also was suspended from Twitter for posting what he claimed was truthful COVID-19 information.

  Tyson and Fareed have “gained international recognition for providing successful early treatment to more than 10,000 COVID-19 patients, with zero patient deaths when treatment was started within 7 days,” the complaint states.

  Tyson testified in various proceedings about early treatment protocols and co-authored a book about COVID-19.

  He also ran as a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives for California’s 25th Congressional District, yet was not deemed a “notable figure of public interest” regarding COVID-19 policy, diagnosis and/or treatment, which prohibited him from obtaining a “verified” badge on Twitter.

  Tyson says he posted only truthful statements about COVID-19 policy, diagnosis and/or treatment with his account, and none of his tweets were classified as a “strike” or violated Twitter’s terms of service.

  Like Malone’s, Tyson’s and Fareed’s accounts were permanently suspended.

  “In a nutshell, these are five [physicians] of the most knowledgeable and helpful voices in the world regarding COVID-19 treatment,” Matthew Tyson wrote in his letter. “Disturbingly, Twitter silenced all of them.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 16:30

• German Energy Giant In Talks Over €9 Billion Bailout Package
  German Energy Giant In Talks Over €9 Billion Bailout Package

  Remember when Germans laughed at Donald Trump in 2018 for saying they had become “totally dependent” on Russian energy? Well… yhey aren’t laughing now.

  Just a few days after we reported that the stock of German gas and power utility Uniper – and the single largest importer of Russian gas in Germany – crashed after the company slashed its outlook and said it was in talks with the government to secure liquidity, potentially including a full-blown bailout from the German government after Russia reduced natural gas deliveries to Europe, on Monday Bloomberg reports that the giant utility is in advanced talks with the German government over a bailout package of as much as 9 billion euros, (or $9.4 billion).

  The government is looking at applying a set of measures, including loans, taking an equity stake and also passing part of the surge in costs onto customers, said two people familiar with the talks.

  As part of the plan, Reuters reported earlier that Germany’s government is preparing legislation that will allow it to take stakes in utilities and impose emergency levies on consumers as ministers are scrambling to deal with the impact of soaring energy prices on electricity firms after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Economy Minister Robert Habeck recently warning of “a Lehman effect” as suppliers face soaring costs to meet obligations to customers. The new law will also allow for customers to shoulder more of the burden of rising gas prices. The cabinet is set to approve the bill this week.

  Uniper shares sank another 28% on Monday, taking the company’s market value to 4.14 billion euros, just shy of its all time low. The stock was worth roughly 4x more at the start of the  year.

  

  Germany, which has built its economic model on a cheap common currency (which has crushed Europe’s periphery ) to avoid the strong Deutsche mark, and even cheaper Russian gas, is wrestling with a squeeze in supplies and surging fuel prices as Moscow punishes Europe for its support for Ukraine. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has warned the gas crunch risks triggering a collapse in the market, similar to the role of Lehman Brothers in the financial crisis. The surge in energy import prices has crushed Germany’s exporting powerhouse, sending its trade balance plummeting and as shown in the chart below at this rate Germany faces an unprecedented outcome: a negative trade balance, something that has not happened since the early 1990s.

  

  German utilities have been urging the government to impose a levy on consumers to help offset the rising cost of gas. Analysts estimate that curbed Russian flows are costing Uniper 30 million euros a day.

  Meanwhile, Habeck has said that the squeeze on Russian flows may get worse, and warned of the risk of a domino effect of failing companies. The broader economy is also in peril as the government is trying to contain the fallout for consumers and industry. Plans have been drafted for rationing, with Germany’s vast industry poised to suffer shortages.

  “We aren’t dealing with erratic decisions but with economic warfare, completely rational and very clear,” Habeck said on Saturday. “After a 60% reduction, the next one logically follows.”

  Well, maybe if it is all “rational and very clear”, then Germany should not have sided with Ukraine in the all too real war taking place just a few hundred miles east of Germany.

  So just how will Germany add another company to its bailout roster? According to Bloomberg, Chancellor Olaf Scholz signaled at the weekend the government could use bailout tools created during the pandemic to rescue Lufthansa in the current crisis.

  “The federal government should be given options along the lines of the Lufthansa aid,” a Reuters source said.

  Lufthansa’s bailout saw the state taking a 20% stake in the airline through an Economic Stabilization Fund, but without being able to exercise shareholder voting rights. The airline was not allowed to take over other companies until 75% of the state aid had been repaid, and its shareholders and managers could not benefit from taxpayers’ money, meaning dividends and bonus payments were put on hold.

  Decades after de-regulating their energy markets, governments across Europe are intervening to prop up utility companies buckling under sky-high prices, while also protecting consumers from soaring costs. Several European energy suppliers have gone bust over the past year, where they have had long-term contracts with customers and have been unable to pass on the swift spike in prices.

  To try to shield consumers from soaring energy bills, governments have also turned to windfall taxes on oil and gas companies, subsidies and discounts.

  Russia is Germany’s top supplier of gas, making it more exposed than other European states to an economic war with Moscow. Soaring prices have heaped political pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who on Monday will meet unions and employers to try to build a consensus on fighting inflation, reviving a concept established in 1967 in response to economic recession that ended the country’s post-war boom.

  Meanwhile, Germany’s government has warned of possible energy shortages and rationing in the winter months if it cannot fill its gas storage quickly enough.

  “The hope of filling the gas storage facilities to some extent by winter could be torpedoed by Russia at any time. Then there are hardly any compensatory possibilities left,” said a note from Sentix that tracks investor morale in the euro zone.

  “In Germany, some ideological boundaries have to be crossed to prevent a “Lehman moment” in the energy sector,” it said, referencing the U.S. bank whose demise help triggered the 2008 financial crisis.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 16:00

• Declare Your Independence From Tyranny, America
  Declare Your Independence From Tyranny, America

  Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rurtherford Institute,

  Imagine living in a country where armed soldiers crash through doors to arrest and imprison citizens merely for criticizing government officials.

  Imagine that in this very same country, you’re watched all the time, and if you look even a little bit suspicious, the police stop and frisk you or pull you over to search you on the off chance you’re doing something illegal.

  Keep in mind that if you have a firearm of any kind (or anything that resembled a firearm) while in this country, it may get you arrested and, in some circumstances, shot by police.

  If you’re thinking this sounds like America today, you wouldn’t be far wrong.

  

  However, the scenario described above took place more than 200 years ago, when American colonists suffered under Great Britain’s version of an early police state. It was only when the colonists finally got fed up with being silenced, censored, searched, frisked, threatened, and arrested that they finally revolted against the tyrant’s fetters.

  No document better states their grievances than the Declaration of Independence, drafted by Thomas Jefferson.

  A document seething with outrage over a government which had betrayed its citizens, the Declaration of Independence was signed on July 4, 1776, by 56 men who laid everything on the line, pledged it all—“our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor”—because they believed in a radical idea: that all people are created to be free.

  Labeled traitors, these men were charged with treason, a crime punishable by death. For some, their acts of rebellion would cost them their homes and their fortunes. For others, it would be the ultimate price—their lives.

  Yet even knowing the heavy price they might have to pay, these men dared to speak up when silence could not be tolerated. Even after they had won their independence from Great Britain, these new Americans worked to ensure that the rights they had risked their lives to secure would remain secure for future generations.

  The result: our Bill of Rights, the first ten amendments to the Constitution.

  Imagine the shock and outrage these 56 men would feel were they to discover that 246 years later, the government they had risked their lives to create has been transformed into a militaristic police state in which exercising one’s freedoms—at a minimum, merely questioning a government agent—is often viewed as a flagrant act of defiance.

  In fact, had the Declaration of Independence been written today, it would have rendered its signers extremists or terrorists, resulting in them being placed on a government watch list, targeted for surveillance of their activities and correspondence, and potentially arrested, held indefinitely, stripped of their rights and labeled enemy combatants.

  Read the Declaration of Independence again, and ask yourself if the list of complaints tallied by Jefferson don’t bear a startling resemblance to the abuses “we the people” are suffering at the hands of the American police state.

  Here’s what the Declaration of Independence might look and sound like if it were written in the modern vernacular:

  There comes a time when a populace must stand united and say “enough is enough” to the government’s abuses, even if it means getting rid of the political parties in power.

  Believing that “we the people” have a natural and divine right to direct our own lives, here are truths about the power of the people and how we arrived at the decision to sever our ties to the government:

  All people are created equal.

  All people possess certain innate rights that no government or agency or individual can take away from them. Among these are the right to Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.

  The government’s job is to protect the people’s innate rights to Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. The government’s power comes from the will of the people.

  Whenever any government abuses its power, it is the right of the people to alter or abolish that government and replace it with a new government that will respect and protect the rights of the people.

  It is not wise to get rid of a government for minor transgressions. In fact, as history has shown, people resist change and are inclined to suffer all manner of abuses to which they have become accustomed.

  However, when the people have been subjected to repeated abuses and power grabs, carried out with the purpose of establishing a tyrannical government, people have a right and duty to do away with that tyrannical government and to replace it with a new government that will protect and preserve their innate rights for their future wellbeing.

  This is exactly the state of affairs we are under suffering under right now, which is why it is necessary that we change this imperial system of government.

  The history of the present Imperial Government is a history of repeated abuses and power grabs, carried out with the intention of establishing absolute tyranny over the country.

  To prove this, consider the following:

  The government has, through its own negligence and arrogance, refused to adopt urgent and necessary laws for the good of the people.

  The government has threatened to hold up critical laws unless the people agree to relinquish their right to be fully represented in the Legislature.

  In order to expand its power and bring about compliance with its dictates, the government has made it nearly impossible for the people to make their views and needs heard by their representatives.

  The government has repeatedly suppressed protests arising in response to its actions.

  The government has obstructed justice by refusing to appoint judges who respect the Constitution and has instead made the courts march in lockstep with the government’s dictates.

  The government has allowed its agents to harass the people, steal from them, jail them and even execute them.

  The government has directed militarized government agents—a.k.a., a standing army—to police domestic affairs in peacetime.

  The government has turned the country into a militarized police state.

  The government has conspired to undermine the rule of law and the constitution in order to expand its own powers.

  The government has allowed its militarized police to invade our homes and inflict violence on homeowners.

  The government has failed to hold its agents accountable for wrongdoing and murder under the guise of “qualified immunity.”

  The government has jeopardized our international trade agreements.

  The government has overtaxed us without our permission.

  The government has denied us due process and the right to a fair trial.

  The government has engaged in extraordinary rendition.

  The government has continued to expand its military empire in collusion with its corporate partners-in-crime and occupy foreign nations.

  The government has eroded fundamental legal protections and destabilized the structure of government.

  The government has not only declared its federal powers superior to those of the states but has also asserted its sovereign power over the rights of “we the people.”

  The government has ceased to protect the people and instead waged domestic war against the people.

  The government has plundered our seas, ravaged our coasts, and destroyed the lives of the people.

  The government has employed private contractors and mercenaries to carry out acts of death, desolation and tyranny, totally unworthy of a civilized nation.

  The government through its political propaganda has pitted its citizens against each other.

  The government has stirred up civil unrest and laid the groundwork for martial law.

  Repeatedly, we have asked the government to cease its abuses. Each time, the government has responded with more abuse.

  An Imperial Ruler who acts like a tyrant is not fit to govern a free people.

  We have repeatedly sounded the alarm to our fellow citizens about the government’s abuses. We have warned them about the government’s power grabs. We have appealed to their sense of justice. We have reminded them of our common bonds.

  They have rejected our plea for justice and brotherhood. They are equally at fault for the injustices being carried out by the government.

  Thus, for the reasons mentioned above, we the people of the united States of America declare ourselves free from the chains of an abusive government. Relying on God’s protection, we pledge to stand by this Declaration of Independence with our lives, our fortunes and our honor.

  In the 246 years since early Americans first declared and eventually won their independence from Great Britain, “we the people” have managed to work ourselves right back under the tyrant’s thumb.

  Only this time, the tyrant is one of our own making: the American Police State.

  The abuses meted out by an imperial government and endured by the American people have not ended. They have merely evolved.

  “We the people” are still being robbed blind by a government of thieves.

  We are still being taken advantage of by a government of scoundrels, idiots and monsters.

  We are still being locked up by a government of greedy jailers.

  We are still being spied on by a government of Peeping Toms.

  We are still being ravaged by a government of ruffians, rapists and killers.

  We are still being forced to surrender our freedoms—and those of our children—to a government of extortionists, money launderers and corporate pirates.

  And we are still being held at gunpoint by a government of soldiers: a standing army in the form of a militarized police.

  Given the fact that we are a relatively young nation, it hasn’t taken very long for an authoritarian regime to creep into power.

  Unfortunately, the bipartisan coup that laid siege to our nation did not happen overnight.

  It snuck in under our radar, hiding behind the guise of national security, the war on drugs, the war on terror, the war on immigration, political correctness, hate crimes and a host of other official-sounding programs aimed at expanding the government’s power at the expense of individual freedoms.

  The building blocks for the bleak future we’re just now getting a foretaste of – police shootings of unarmed citizens, profit-driven prisons, weapons of compliance, a wall-to-wall surveillance state, pre-crime programs, a suspect society, school-to-prison pipelines, militarized police, overcriminalization, SWAT team raids, endless wars, etc. – were put in place by government officials we trusted to look out for our best interests.

  As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, the problems we are facing will not be fixed overnight: that is the grim reality with which we must contend.

  Yet that does not mean we should give up or give in or tune out. What we need to do is declare our independence from the tyranny of the American police state.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 15:30

• Despite Opposition From His Closest Advisors And Supporters, Biden Expected To Roll Back China Tariffs As Soon As This Week
  Despite Opposition From His Closest Advisors And Supporters, Biden Expected To Roll Back China Tariffs As Soon As This Week

  Joe Biden woke up on July 4, failed miserably when trying to read one word from the teleprompter…

  As you celebrate the 4th tomorrow, remember our President’s inspiring words about this great nation. pic.twitter.com/EcNoXNuY8l

  — Bill D’Agostino (@Banned_Bill) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  … and decided that the most patriotic thing the president could do, was leak that tariffs imposed on China by the Trump administration could be rolled back as soon as this week, a decision which the WSJ said is constrained by competing policy aims: on one hand addressing inflation (because supposedly easing tariffs will somehow shrink inflation) while on the other hand maintaining economic pressure on Beijing, not that that has been a policy goal of Joe Biden, who has become China’s de facto Manchurian candidate courtesy of his son Hunter.

  Citing ‘people familiar with the situation’, the Journal writes that what comes next could include a pause on tariffs on consumer goods such as clothing and school supplies, as well as launching a broad framework to allow importers to request tariff waivers.

  The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is conducting a mandatory four-year review of the Trump-era tariffs. A comment period for businesses and others who have benefited from the tariffs will close July 5, giving the administration an opportunity to calibrate its policy.

  A tariff rollback would mark Biden’s first major policy step on trade ties between the world’s two biggest economic powers. The president in recent weeks held a number of meetings with senior economic advisers where options for a decision on the Trump-era tariffs were discussed, Bloomberg adds citing its own sources.

  Hints that the Biden administration is considering an easing in some of the tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports have multiplied as inflation has accelerated, putting pressure on US officials to find ways to tamp down prices paid by consumers for everyday merchandise.

  

  Biden said last month he’ll be talking to Chinese President Xi Jinping “soon” and told reporters he was “in the process” of making up his mind about whether to lift tariffs. Some members of Biden’s Cabinet suggested he use the upcoming call with Xi to ask him for reciprocal tariff cuts on American goods currently facing import duties, though that idea was quickly shot down, the people said.

  Meanwhile, as he weighs a decision, Biden has been buffeted by policy disagreements both within his administration, and by outside forces including business, labor and lawmakers, which is why a plan to announce a tariff cut has been repeatedly postponed, as it reflects the “sharp divisions” within his own administration over the China tariffs.

  Among his own cabinet, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen – who recently admitted her cluelessness is behind the most catastrophic inflationary juggernaut unleashed in the US in more than 40 years – has called tariffs a drag on the economy, saying the administration is looking at ways to reconfigure them to help curb inflation. Yellen has said some of the inherited tariffs aren’t strategic and don’t address China’s unfair trade practices.

  “Reconfiguring some of those tariffs so they make more sense and reducing unnecessary burdens is something that’s under consideration,” Yellen said in an interview with ABC News on June 19.

  Most of Biden’s cronies, however, take the opposite view to that of the senile trasury secretary: on the other side are U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and National security adviser Jake Sullivan, who see tariffs as valuable leverage in getting concessions from China. These skeptics want a tariff cut paired with another measure designed to keep pressure on Beijing to change practices that the U.S. says put American companies and workers at a disadvantage.

  Among the possible steps are raising tariffs on strategic items such as industrial machinery and transportation equipment, while lowering duties on consumer goods. The U.S. also could start a fresh investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act focusing on China’s industrial subsidies on high-tech items, a policy the USTR has been preparing for months.  Such a policy could lead to tariffs on a new set of products.

  “From the domestic political perspective, there are two very strong, competing concerns. One is the need to be perceived as fighting inflation. And the other is the need to be seen to be very strong in standing up to China,” said Claire Reade, a longtime China official for the USTR who is now at the law firm Arnold & Porter.

  “The question is how do you take all of these divergent concerns and harmonize them into one policy?” she said.

  The catalyst behind the highly unpopular decision is an even more unpopular byproduct of the Biden administration – soaring prices. The White House has been struggling in vain to contain the fallout from high prices for food, gas and other consumer items, which will decimate the Democratic Party in the November midterm elections.

  Unsurprisingly, economists say removing Chinese tariffs isn’t likely to have a dramatic impact on inflation. Peterson Institute analysts Megan Hogan and Yilin Wang estimate that removing tariffs on Chinese imports could lower consumer-price index inflation by a marginal 0.26 percentage point at first. But “as U.S. corporations trim their markups to compete with imports,” that might eventually lead to a 1-percentage-point reduction in inflation, they added.

  Meanwhile republicans including Sen. Bill Hagerty (R., Tenn.) and others have rightfully pointed out that, for more than two years after the tariffs were introduced, there were few signs of inflation or discussions linked to their impact on consumer prices.

  “Wouldn’t removing these tariffs simply encourage more bad behavior,” Hagerty asked Tai at a recent hearing. “What kind of message would it send to China?”

  At the same time, proponents of tariff reduction – most of them generously funded by China – say it is important for Biden to show he is serious about fighting inflation, possibly by pausing tariffs on consumer goods purchased by American households. As the Federal Reserve is primarily responsible for controlling inflation, tariff reduction is one of the few policy options available to the president. Biden himself has said in recent weeks that he is considering a tariff cut, noting that the levies were introduced by the previous administration.

  Of course, this being the Biden administration where every incremental decision only lead to more chaos and pain, a decision to drop tariffs would only lead to even more acute attacks on the White House as it was Biden’s own advisors such as Tai (previously appointed by Biden) who has repeatedly defended the tariffs as a useful tool in confronting China over its trade practices.

  “The China tariffs are, in my view, a significant piece of leverage, and a trade negotiator never walks away from leverage,” Ms. Tai told a Senate subcommittee meeting on June 22.

  For its part, China has long pressed the U.S. to ease the tariffs, contending they hurt both countries.

  “With inflation rates running high across the globe, the U.S. needs to lift all the additional tariffs imposed on China, as this will serve the interests of businesses and consumers and benefit both countries and the world at large,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a June 15 press conference.

  As the main weapon of his trade war with China, former President Donald Trump imposed tariffs ranging from 7.5% to 25% on Chinese imports worth roughly $370 billion over four rounds between July 2018 and September 2019. The action was based on the findings of a Section 301 investigation over China’s practices related to technology transfer and intellectual property.

  While early rounds of the tariffs were placed on strategic items closely linked to the investigation, the lists were later expanded to consumer goods as Trump officials ramped up pressure on Beijing.

  There is one reason why we should be skeptical that Biden will order tariff cuts: labor unions and progressive Democrats, who have had a decisive sway on Biden’s trade policy, are among the most vocal opponents of tariff cuts. Among them are the members of the Labor Advisory Committee advising the USTR, representing top unions including the AFL-CIO, United Steelworkers and Service Employees International Union.

  They noted that nothing has changed in China’s practices since Trump’s 301 investigation that would merit lifting the tariffs. If anything, they wrote, Beijing has “only doubled down on their strategy and approach.”

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 15:15

• Putin Won't Congratulate Biden On July 4th: "Hardly Appropriate"
  Putin Won’t Congratulate Biden On July 4th: “Hardly Appropriate”

  In prior years before there was a war on in Eastern Europe, it was customary for the Russian president to send a congratulatory commemorative message to the US president marking the July 4th holiday.

  As perhaps expected given the Ukraine invasion and Washington’s unprecedented sanctions against the Russian state and economy, including on Vladimir Putin himself, the Russian leader won’t congratulate Biden this year, according to a Monday Kremlin statement.

  “This is because this year, the U.S.’ unfriendly political discourse towards Russia has reached its culmination point,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, as cited in Interfax. He called it “hardly appropriate” at this time.

  

  “Under this circumstance, sending such a congratulatory message is hardly appropriate,” he explained.

  Not only have US-Russia relations reached a historic low-point of late, but there’s not even the basic level of diplomacy and communications one might expect as part of efforts to end the Ukraine war and achieve a ceasefire.

  Instead, the Biden administration has approved wave after wave of billion dollar weapons packages, also while signaling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to take a hardline ‘no compromise’ stance in refusing the possibility of any territorial concessions for the sake of ending the war.

  The Moscow Times observes of where things stand between Moscow and Washington in the following:

  In March, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the relationship between the Kremlin and the White House was “on the verge of a breakup.” Ryabkov said that the only way to “save” it would be for the U.S. to halt the supply of weapons to Ukraine and, instead, “project positive influence on Kyiv.”

  But as for the type of warmer, relaxed relations which might have allowed for exchanges of congratulatory holiday messages, that hasn’t happened since 2020.

  

  Putin sent his last Independence Day message to Washington during that year of the Trump presidency, at a moment relations were already sliding in large part due to ‘Russiagate’ related election interference accusations being lobbed at Moscow.

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 15:00

• Beauty Contests And Market Bottoms
  Beauty Contests And Market Bottoms

  By Nick Colas of DataTrek Research

  Today we will discuss an early classic in the field of behavioral finance: John Maynard Keynes’ “Beauty Contest”. Its lesson is that market prices are set by what investors think other investors think. At present, that dynamic is creating ever-lower stock prices because of the increasingly consensus idea that the S&P 500 will bottom somewhere between 3,000 and 3,400. Those levels come from expectations of lower earnings due to a recession. The bottom will come when investors think other investors believe it has arrived.

  For Story Time Thursday this week we have a discussion of an early behavioral finance concept called the “Keynes Beauty Contest”. While distinctly out of step with modern values – the idea comes from John Maynard Keynes 1936 work “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” – it is still a hugely useful paradigm today. Especially today, frankly …

  Richard Thaler published a wonderful analysis of the Beauty Contest in 2015 (link below), which quotes from the 1936 Keynes work to describe how it works:

  • Imagine a newspaper contest “in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from 100 photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole …”

  • “ … each competitor has to pick, not those faces that he himself finds prettiest, but those that he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of other competitors, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view …”

  

  The analogy to equity markets:

  • Investors and traders look for investment ideas they think other market participants will find more attractive in the future.

  • The timeframe may be a day or a week for a trader and 6-12 months for an investor, but the idea is the same. Buy things that you expect other people will find more valuable at some future date. Any analysis worth pursuing must be in service to that goal.

  The hard bit about the Beauty Contest as far as its application to investing is that it is iterative. It is not enough to pick faces you think the crowd will find attractive. Everyone else is doing that too. To win, you must run multiple cycles of “what will the crowd think?”

  Thaler’s article updates Keynes’ idea with a numerical version which explains why this is so challenging:

  • “Guess a number from zero to 100, with the goal of making your guess as close as possible to two-thirds of the average guess of all those participating in the contest.”

  • “To help you think about this puzzle, suppose there are three players who guess 20, 30 and 40 respectively. The average guess would be 30, two-thirds of which is 20, so the person who guessed 20 would win.”

  • The naïve guess would be 50 – the midpoint between 1 and 100 – based on the assumption contestants are lazy and would just pick random numbers rather than latch on to the wrinkle of “two-thirds of the average guess”.

  • More educated guesses might be 33 (two thirds of that 50 naïve estimate) or 22 (on the assumption contestants have thought the problem through, but not iterated one level deeper).

  Math nerds will think of this as a Nash equilibrium problem, and Thaler makes the point the only viable answer using this approach is zero. Iterate the last point’s math ad infinitum and you get zero. Yes, this assumes only math Ph.D.s are playing the game. But it is a logical conclusion nonetheless.

  We can use this idea to estimate what market participants think fair value on the S&P 500 is today:

  The naïve guess is today’s close: 3785. We’ve had a horrible first half of 2022, and maybe all the bad news is finally baked into stock prices.

  The second order guess might be 3,386, if we assume investors will think other market participants will key off either pre-pandemic highs and/or discount a modest earnings recession:

  • This was the last S&P 500 high before the Pandemic Recession (February 19th, 2020).

  • It is also 18x S&P earnings of $188/share, which is roughly 15 percent (14.5 pct, to be exact) below current earnings power of $220/share.

  • While earnings typically decline 25 percent in a recession, perhaps any upcoming economic downturn will be milder than most. The 18x multiple is slightly richer than the 10-year average of 17x, but fair since investors tend to pay more for trough earnings as they anticipate higher earnings in a recovery.

  The third order guess could be around 3,000, if investors believe markets must discount a full-blown recession before there is enough general interest in stocks to make for a durable low:

  • Assume an average hit (25 pct decline) to S&P earnings from a recession and you get $165/share versus the current $220/share earnings power.

  • Put an 18x multiple on that $166/share and you get an S&P of 2,970.

  Takeaway: fair value on the S&P – or any other stock market index – is a function of what investors think other investors think. In bull markets those beliefs are iteratively revised upwards. In bear markets, such as now, those revisions trend lower until specific catalysts change investor perceptions. Then, the whole cycle starts all over again. At the end of a very difficult 6 months for stock prices, it is worth remembering that there is always a low and a next bull market. The goal now is to play defense until those arrive.

  Source: Thaler article: https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/keyness-beauty-contest

  Tyler Durden
  Mon, 07/04/2022 – 14:30

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• 'Reset' This!
  ‘Reset’ This!

  Authored by Michael Walsh via AmericanMind.org,

  “The following is an excerpt from Michael Walsh’s forthcoming book, Against the Great Reset: Eighteen Theses Contra the New World Order, which will be published by Bombardier Books and be available October 18, 2022. Walsh has gathered a series of essays from among eighteen of the most eminent thinkers, writers, and journalists—including the American Mind’s own James Poulos, as well as Claremont Senior Fellows Michael Anton and the late Angelo Codevilla—to provide the first major salvo in the intellectual resistance to the sweeping restructuring of the western world by globalist elites.”

  

  Part I: The Problem

  What is the Great Reset and why should we care? In the midst of a tumultuous medical-societal breakdown, likely engineered by the Chinese Communist Party and abetted by America’s National Institutes of Health “gain of function” financial assistance to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, why is the Swiss-based World Economic Forum (WEF) advocating a complete “re-imagining” of the Western world’s social, economic, and moral structures? And why now? What are its aspirations, prescriptions, and proscriptions, and how will it prospectively affect us? It’s a question that the men and women of the WEF are hoping you won’t ask.

  This book seeks to supply the answers. It has ample historical precedents, from Demosthenes’s fulminations against Philip II of Macedon (Alexander’s father), Cicero’s Philippics denouncing Mark Antony, the heretic-hunting Tertullian’s Adversus Marcionem¸ and the philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche’s Nietzsche contra Wagner. Weighty historical issues are often best debated promptly, when something can yet be done about them; in the meantime, historians of the future can at least understand the issues as the participants themselves saw and experienced them. Whether the formerly free world of the Western democracies will succumb to the paternalistic totalitarianism of the oligarchical Resetters remains to be seen. But this is our attempt to stop it.

  So great is mankind’s perpetual dissatisfaction with its present circumstances, whatever they may be, that the urge to make the world anew is as old as recorded history. Eve fell under the Serpent’s spell, and with the plucking of an apple, sought to improve her life in the Garden of Eden by becoming, in Milton’s words, “as Gods, Knowing both Good and Evil as they know.” The forbidden fruit was a gift she shared with Adam; how well that turned out has been the history of the human race ever since. High aspirations, disastrous results.

  The expulsion from the Garden, however, has not discouraged others from trying. Indeed, the entire chronicle of Western civilization is best regarded as a never-ending and ineluctable struggle for cultural and political superiority, most often expressed militarily (since that is how humans generally decide matters) but extending to all things both spiritual and physical. Dissatisfaction with the status quo may not be universal—timeless and static Asian cultures, such as China’s, have had it imposed upon them by external Western forces, including the British and the Marxist-Leninists—but it has been a hallmark of the occident and its steady civilizational churn that dates back at least to Homer, Plato, Aeschylus, Herodotus, Pericles, and Alexander the Great, with whom Western history properly begins.

  The philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche, assaying the inelegant Koine, or demotic, Greek of the New Testament in Beyond Good and Evil, observed: “Es ist eine Feinheit, daß Gott griechisch lernte, als er Schriftsteller werden wollte—und daß er es nicht besser lernte”: “It’s a particular refinement that God learned Greek when he wanted to become a writer—and that he didn’t learn it better.” Nietzsche, the preacher’s son who became through sheer willpower a dedicated atheist, was poking fun at the fundamentalist belief that the Christian scriptures were the literal words of God himself (Muslims, of course, believe the same thing about the Koran, except more so). If something as elemental, as essential to Western thought as the authenticity of the Bible, not to mention God’s linguistic ability, could be questioned and even mocked, then everything was on the table—including, in Nietzsche’s case, God Himself.

  With the death of God—or of a god—Nietzsche sought liberation from the moral jiu-jitsu of Jesus: that weakness was strength; that victimhood was noble; that renunciation—of love, sex, power, ambition—was the highest form of attainment. That Nietzsche’s rejection of God was accompanied by his rejection of Richard Wagner, whose music dramas are based on the moral elevation of rejection, is not coincidental; the great figures of the nineteenth century, including Darwin and Marx, all born within a few years of each other, were not only revolutionaries, but embodied within themselves antithetical forces that somehow evolved into great Hegelian syntheses of human striving with which we still grapple today.

  Wagner, the Schopenhauerian atheist who staggered back to Christianity and the anti-Semite who engaged the Jew Hermann Levi as the only man who could conduct his final ode to Christian transfiguration, Parsifal. Charles Darwin, ticketed for an Anglican parsonage but mutating into the author of On the Origin of Species, The Descent of Man, and all the way to The Formation of Vegetable Mould through the Action of Worms. Karl Marx, the scion of rabbis whose father converted to Lutheranism and, like Wagner for a time, a stateless rebel who preached that the withering away of the state itself was “inevitable”—and yet the state endures, however battered it may be at the moment.

  It’s fitting that the “Great Reset of capitalism” is the brainchild of the WEF, which hosts an annual conference in the Alpine village of Davos—the site of the tuberculosis sanatorium to which the naïf Hans Castorp reports at the beginning of Thomas Mann’s masterpiece, The Magic Mountain. Planning to visit a sick cousin for three weeks, he ends up staying for seven years, “progressing” from healthy individual to patient himself as his perception of time slows and nearly stops. Castorp’s personal purgatory ends only when he rouses himself to leave—his Bildungsreise complete—upon the outbreak of World War I, in which we assume he will meet the death, random and senseless, that he has been so studiously avoiding yet simultaneously courting at the Berghof.

  Central Europe, it seems, is where the internal contradictions of Western civilization are both born and, like Martin Luther at Eisleben, go home to die. And this is where the latest synthetic attempt to replace God with his conqueror, Man, has emerged: in the village of Davos, in the canton of Graubünden, Switzerland: the site of the annual meeting of the WEF led by the German-born engineer and economist Klaus Schwab, born in Ravensburg in 1938, the year before Hitler and Stalin began carving up Poland and the Baltics.

  Once more into the breach, then: behold the present volume. In commissioning sixteen of the best, most persuasive, and most potent thinkers and writers from around the world to contribute to our joint venture, my principal concern has been to offer multiple analyses of the WEF’s nostrums and in so doing to go poet Wallace Stevens’s “Thirteen Ways of Looking at a Blackbird” a few better. Then again, given the surname of the WEF’s chief, perhaps a better, more potent literary citation might be Margret’s little ditty from the Büchner/Alban Berg expressionist opera, Wozzeck (1925): In’s Schwabenland, da mag ich nit—”I don’t want to go to Schwab-land.” Nor, as Hans Castorp’s journey illustrates, should anyone wish to visit Davos-land if he prizes his freedom, his possessions, and his sanity. To the Great Resetters, we are all ill, all future patients-in-waiting, all in dire need of a drastic corrective regimen to cure what ails us.

  In these pages, we shall examine the Great Reset from the top down. The eminent American historian Victor Davis Hanson begins our survey with “The Great Regression,” locating Schwab’s vision within its proper historical context. He is followed by Canada’s Conrad Black and America’s Michael Anton and their views of capitalism and socialism, with not a few attacks on conventional, osmotic wisdom that will both surprise and enthrall. Britain’s Martin Hutchinson outlines the contours of the Reset’s “Anti-Industrial Revolution,” even as the American economist David Goldman confronts both Schwab’s notion of the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” and China’s immanentizing its eschaton in real time, along with the Red Dragon’s commitment to the upending of Western civilization and its own Sino-forming of a post-Western world.

  American writer, editor, and publisher Roger Kimball tackles the implications of a neofascist Reset in his essay, “Sovereignty and the Nation-State,” both of which concepts are under attack in the name of “equality,” its totalitarian successor “equity,” and the political consequences of our re-embrace of Rousseauvian concepts as applied to governments. British historian Jeremy Black discusses the misuses toward which the study of history has been and will be put to by the Resetters. The late Angelo Codevilla contributes what alas became his final essay, “Resetting the Educational Reset,” to sound the tocsin about the dangerous left turn of the once-vaunted American educational system, now reduced to a shrill, sinistral shell of its former dispassionate glory.

  From Down Under, the Philippines-born Richard Fernandez twins two eternally competing faiths, religion and science; the American-born, Australian-based political sociologist Salvatore Babones contributes a remarkably clear explication of the kinds of transportation feasible under the “green energy” regimen the Reset seeks to impose upon us, and its practical and social implications. Writing from Milan, Alberto Mingardi, the director-general of the Istituto Bruno Leoni, gets to the heart of the Great Reset’s deceptive economic program with an essay concerning faux-capitalist “stakeholder capitalism” and its surreptitious replacement of shareholder capitalism in the name of “social justice.”

  The Great Reset, however, is not strictly limited to matters financial, pecuniary, or macroeconomic. Social and cultural spheres are of equal importance. James Poulos looks at the Reset’s unholy relationship with the predatory Big Tech companies that currently abrogate the First Amendment by acting as governmental censors without actually being commanded by an act of Congress or, increasingly, an arbitrary presidential mandate. From British Columbia, noted Canadian author and academic Janice Fiamengo weighs in on the destructive effects of feminism upon our shared Western culture while, on the lighter side, Harry Stein examines the history of American humor—which in effect means worldwide humor—and how the leftist takeover of our shared laugh tracks has resulted in a stern, Stalinist view of what is and what is not allowed to be funny.

  The British writer Douglas Murray has a go at the permissible future of Realpolitik under the panopticonic supervision of the Reset, the Chinese Communist Party, and the Covid hysterics, while the American journalist John Tierney lays out the road to civilizational serfdom that the unwarranted panic over the Covid-19 “pandemic” has triggered during its media-fueled run between 2019 and 2022. My contribution, in addition to this Introduction, is an examination of the Reset’s—and, historically, elitist tyranny’s—deleterious effects on Western culture: the very thing that gave birth to our notions of morality and freedom.

  At its heart, the Great Reset is a conceited and self-loathing central-European blitzkrieg against the cultural, intellectual, religious, artistic, physical, and, most of all, moral inheritance we have received from our Greco-Roman forebears. This has been latterly shorthanded, with the rise of “wokeness,” to “white” culture. Typically racialist, if not outright racist, the cultural Marxists behind wokeness insist on reducing humanity to its shades of skin color and then claiming that although all skin colors should achieve in exact same proportions to their share in a given population, some skin colors are better than others and any skin color is preferable to white. It’s a deeply repellent principle that masquerades as a perversion of Judeo-Christianity but is in fact a simultaneous attack on individuality and merit that seeks to roll back the scientific and cultural advances of the past two millennia, wielding both science and culture as weapons against our shared technological and moral heritage.

  The goal, as always, is power—the eternal fixation of the socialist Left…

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 23:45

• Chicago Violence: 7 Killed, 29 Others Shot Over Fourth of July Weekend
  Chicago Violence: 7 Killed, 29 Others Shot Over Fourth of July Weekend

  By Jack Phillips of The Epoch Times

  At least seven people were killed and 29 more were injured in shootings across Chicago over the Fourth of July weekend, officials said on Sunday morning.

  

  Authorities said that a male and another male were shooting at each other at the 2200 block of South Wentworth Avenue at around 10:50 p.m. A 24-year-old unidentified woman was shot in the torso and was later pronounced dead at Stroger Hospital, officials told the Chicago Sun-Times and ABC7.

  The incident left a 42-year-old injured, and an official said she’s in good condition at a nearby hospital, the paper reported. One of the suspects, a 38-year-old male, was shot in the buttocks and is in critical condition in Northwestern Memorial Hospital, authorities said.

  Early on Sunday, a 35-year-old male was shot dead at around 3 a.m. while in a vehicle in Brighton Park, officials said. The male was in the passenger seat as a female driver was driving a car on the 3800 block of South Kedzie Avenue when he was hit in the neck by gunfire.

  And on Friday, authorities said a 26-year-old male was shot and killed in the South Side’s Englewood district. The male was outside about 5:45 p.m. in the 6500 block of South Wolcott Avenue when someone approached and shot him.

  On Sunday, two people were injured and one person—a 24-year-old male—died in a shooting at Grand Crossing on the South Side, police said. They were shot in the backyard of a house in the 7000 block of South Harper Avenue at around 5:30 a.m. local time.

  Police said that in another incident, a 29-year-old male, identified as Keishone Roberts, was shot dead in the 4300 block of West Van Buren Street in West Garfield Park, the paper reported. He was shot several times after someone approached him and opened fire. He was pronounced dead at Stroger Hospital sometime later.

  Around midnight Saturday, a 30-year-old male was shot and killed in the 9000 block of South Escanaba Avenue when someone shot him in the head, police said. Other details about the incident weren’t provided.

  Authorities also confirmed that a man was shot and killed while riding a bike in the 2100 block of East 71st Street at around 4 p.m. Saturday. The man, 26, was struck in the head and arm before he was taken to a nearby hospital and was later pronounced dead.

  During the Fourth of July weekend in 2021, more than 100 people were shot, of which 19 died. That prompted Chicago Police Chief David Brown to say that residents should expect more officers on the streets this weekend.

  “While I won’t give a number, we do have adequate resources … where we need them,” Brown said last week, according to reports. “Navy Pier obviously is a focus. All of our high-violence areas—obviously the top 55 beats—are a focus. As well as areas within every neighborhood” and “downtown.”

  And last week, officials said that a 19-year-old male suspect, Anthony Heredia, was charged in the fatal shooting of a 17-year-old girl in a Chicago parking lot of a business. Police told Fox32 that the girl approached Heredia who produced a gun and fired shots at her.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 23:05

• Starlink Wins FCC Approval For In-Motion Use On Airplanes And Cruise Ships 
  Starlink Wins FCC Approval For In-Motion Use On Airplanes And Cruise Ships 

  The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) granted Elon Musk’s SpaceX permission to provide Starlink high-speed satellite internet to users in vehicles, vessels, and aircraft, potentially changing the game regarding the current dial-up speeds on commercial jets and cruise ships. 

  In its authorization memo dated Thursday, the FCC said, “We agree with SpaceX and Kepler that the public interest would benefit by granting with conditions their applications. Authorizing a new class of terminals for SpaceX’s satellite system will expand the range of broadband capabilities to meet the growing user demands that now require connectivity while on the move, whether driving an RV across the country, moving a freighter from Europe to a U.S. port, or while on a domestic or international flight.”

  This permission is crucial for SpaceX to expand its high-speed satellite internet service on commercial airline carriers. It has signed deals with Hawaiian Airlines and semiprivate charter provider JSX. 

  Last month, Royal Caribbean Group requested the FCC to immediately clear the way for next-generation high-speed internet on cruise ships. Just like airlines, cruise ship internet speeds while sailing range between 3-5 Mbps for download, very similar to speeds to ones in commercial jets. For reference, the average US household has a download speed of about 43 Mbps. 

  The age of remote working and the internet of everything is pushing a need for high-speed satellite internet. 

  The FCC’s authorization also allows semi-trucks, RVs, and anything that moves, even a Tesla, to use Starlink for portable use. 

  

  However, there is a condition the FCC noted for in-motion Starlink service. SpaceX must “accept any interference received from current and future services authorized.” 

  Bloomberg notes SpaceX has more than 2,500 satellites in low Earth orbit, serving at least a half-million Starlink customers worldwide. Here’s a coverage map:

  

  Speedtest.net clocked Starlink’s average internet speed in the US at around 90.55 Mbps in 1Q22, up 38% from 65.72 Mbps YoY. Imagine receiving those speeds on a commercial jet and/or cruise ship — would change the game of remote working. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 23:05

• China Tightens Rules For Online Platforms, Requiring Companies To Authenticate Users' Identities
  China Tightens Rules For Online Platforms, Requiring Companies To Authenticate Users’ Identities

  Authored by Kane Zhang via The Epoch Times,

  The Cyberspace Administration of China issued new regulations on June 27 requiring all online platform operators to authenticate users’ identities and verify the account information submitted by users during registration.

  

  The new regulations require the network information service provider to display user IP addresses on their page of account information, which would facilitate Beijing’s monitoring of user locations.

  The new rules will take effect on Aug. 1, when companies will need to validate every user’s online identity.

  ‘Illegal’ Posts Critical of Regime

  Current affairs commentator Lu Bei told The Epoch Times that the new rules allow the regime to maintain its control over information as it faces growing criticism online.

  Lu said that Beijing aims to extend its centralized control of information systems into citizens’ everyday lives, supervising their every move. The regime has been know to use network technology in a way that violates the rights and privacy of ordinary citizens, while at the same time failing to monitor the movement of criminals.

  On June 28, China’s Ministry of Public Security said on its public WeChat account that its cybersecurity department had investigated more than 600 cases of “illegal” posts by the “internet water army” or “internet navy”—many fake accounts that get paid to post positive comments to inflate companies’ online image—and arrested more than 4,000 suspects, according to the state-run People’s Daily.

  The report said that those commentators had spread unfavorable views of China’s economy, and that some had released “illegal and harmful information to manipulate or disrupt the order of online public opinion.”

  Lu believes that Beijing’s crackdown on the so-called “illegal internet navy” is to keep people from talking about hot topics, such as the “Iron Chain Woman” human trafficking scandal, the “nightmare” lockdowns in Shanghai, the Tangshan women-beating incident, and the Zhengzhou bank depositor incident.

  “Any topic that concerns the ordinary citizen are suppressed, and inappropriate comments are filtered out, taken down, or attached with warning labels. People are deprived of freedom and labeled criminals for ‘picking quarrels and provoking trouble,’” Lu added.

  “Meanwhile, the ‘legal’ Internet navy is paid for by the Chinese Communist Party. They are reportedly paid ‘fifty cents’ for every pro-CCP remark or in exchange for a reduced jail sentence.”

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 22:25

• The Economic Implications Of The US Urban Exodus
  The Economic Implications Of The US Urban Exodus

  The Urban exodus documents here extensively over the past two years has had profound consequences on the US economy.

  Starting with the pandemic, and subsequently accelerating due to the historic riots, unprecedented lawlessness and historic crime rates unleashed by democratic administrations in major US metroareas, urban exodus has had a “Donut Effect,” causing greater domestic migration out of urban counties and into the surrounding suburbs. At the same time, increased adoption of hybrid work and remote work have shifted the geographic location of demand for food and other services. The resulting temporary geographical mismatch in labor demand and supply could take time to resolve.

  Addressing the topic of economic implications from urban exodus, a recent note from BofA economist Stephena Juneau writes that the labor market is in the midst of one of the most rapid recoveries in history. After falling by more than 21M from February 2020 to April 2020, private payrolls are now just about 200k below pre-pandemic levels. But this labor market recovery has been marked by substantial geographical variation. The growth in private employment has been much lower in bigger city centers compared to the surrounding suburbs. 

  In its note (available to professional ZH subscribers), BofA digs deeper into this geographic variation by focusing on 11 of the largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA)—New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Boston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Miami, Philadelphia, Washington DC, Atlanta and San Francisco. The recovery of private employment in these city centers has lagged behind the recovery in the surrounding suburbs (yet another failing by mostly Democratic cities). Indeed, BofA finds that aggregate private payrolls in the urban counties are down 3.8% from the pre-pandemic level in 2019 Q4 (Exhibit 1). Meanwhile, the surrounding suburbs have seen only a 1.5% drop in private employment.

  

  The scientific name for the migration from cities to suburbs was given by Ramani and Bloom (2021) as “the Donut effect.” Data from William H. Frey at the Brookings institute on the basket of 11 MSAs lends support to this effect. It shows that urban counties have seen a significant decline in domestic migration and a decline in overall population.

  

  Suburbs, on the other hand, experienced an increase in domestic migration based on change of address data from USPS. One of the main reasons for this is that businesses are adopting official remote work or hybrid work policies (the other big reason(s) is that most big cities have become socialist hellholes “worse than Afghanistan”, as even Ken Griffin recently declared before fleeing the Democratic bastion of Chicago for Miami).

  

  This has led to both changing residences and a slow and incomplete recovery in office occupancy. More densely populated city centers like NY and SF are seeing a much slower recovery as compared to less densely populated city centers like Houston and Dallas.

  

  The population shift and the drop in full time commuters has led to decreased mobility towards “retail & recreation” in the city centers as compared to the suburbs. To a large extent, businesses in the leisure/hospitality sector in the city centers like restaurants, cafes, retail stores depend on the workers who commute there during the week. Additionally, revenue from tourism that feeds into these sectors hasn’t picked up to its pre pandemic trend yet. This has caused a shift in labor demand from the city centers to the suburbs, helping cause a weaker job recovery in cities. Combine this with workers leaving the labor force and the labor shortage is particularly high in the suburbs.

  

  Mismatches in the labor market add to the supply constraints on the economy. Hence they are part of the ongoing supply-driven inflation. In economic jargon, if they persist they raise the inflation neutral unemployment rate. In BofA’s view, this could take some time to resolve. It is hard for low wage workers to follow jobs into the suburbs because of limited low cost housing. As workers start spending a bit more time in the office, that will help ease the imbalance, but a return to the old living and commuting patterns is highly unlikely.

  This geographical shift will eventually cause the businesses in the leisure and hospitality space in the city centers to either downsize/close or shift operations to the suburbs to meet the increased demand there.

  The broader mismatch between labor supply and demand should also slowly improve. A recent survey conducted by Indeed shows that job seeker interest in high-touch jobs is in fact rebounding. This should help in resolving the geographical labor demand-supply mismatch. So the Fed will get some help in rebalancing the labor market, but they still need to bring job growth down below 100k and engineer a moderate upward shift in the unemployment rate. Then again, with even Zuck warning that mass layoffs are coming, we may be just a few days away from a “shock” negative jobs print.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 21:45

• The Supreme Court Marshal Urges States To Crack Down On Protesters
  The Supreme Court Marshal Urges States To Crack Down On Protesters

  Authored by Jonathan Turley,

  In a rare move, Supreme Court Marshal Gail Curley has sent letters to Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Montgomery County Executive Marc Elrich, and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin demanding that authorities put an end to picketing and “threatening activity” outside the homes of SCOTUS justices.

  

  The letter seeks to use state laws to achieve what the Justice Department has clearly rejected under federal law. If the letter prompts arrests, we could see a major free speech challenge in the courts. The timing of the letter, however, is particularly interesting and may reflect a recognition of the limits of the federal law.

  Like most Americans, I have denounced these protests targeting the homes of justices as excessive and reckless (though one law professor actually suggested that such protests could be more aggressive). However, I have also questioned the use of a federal law to arrest protesters.

  Under a federal law, 18 U.S.C. 1507, any individual who “pickets or parades” with the “intent of interfering with, obstructing, or impeding the administration of justice, or with the intent of influencing any judge, juror, witness, or court officer” near a U.S. court or “near a building or residence occupied or used by such judge, juror, witness, or court officer” will be fined or “imprisoned not more than one year, or both.”

  I believe that a court would declare the use of the law against protesters on public sidewalks to be unconstitutional under the First Amendment. Indeed, if you apply the broad interpretation of the law, even protests outside of the Supreme Court building could result in arrests since courthouses are also included.

  However, the timing is particularly interesting. After the release of the decision in in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, I noted that it would be even harder to use this law because the statute refers to “interfering with, obstructing, or impeding the administration of justice, or with the intent of influencing any judge … in the discharge of his duty.” With the release of the decision, there is no chance that the protesters are interfering, impeding, or influencing the decision. Thus, even if the constitutional arguments were rejected, a court could question whether the law can be read as applying to protests generally against the justices for their views.

  That is what makes the date so interesting. Dobbs came out on June 24, 2022. One week later, Curley sought enforcement of state laws as an alternative to federal enforcement. It may reflect the view that, even if the law is constitutional to arrest protesters, it would be narrowly construed in light of the fact that Dobbs is now on the books. Since it was clear for weeks that the Justice Department would not enforce the law to arrest protesters outside of these homes, the timing of the letter could reflect a dwindling likelihood of enforcement in light of the end of the term.

  Curley wrote Gov. Hogan: “I would respectfully request that you direct the Maryland State Police to enforce Maryland and Montgomery County laws that squarely prohibit picketing at the homes of Supreme Court Justices who reside in Maryland.”

  The state laws, however, would still face the same constitutional challenges. While noise and other non-content-based regulations can be enforced, barring any protests that do not block streets could be difficult to maintain.

  Both the Maryland and Virginia governors responded by calling on Attorney General Merrick Garland to use his authority under federal law to stop the protesters.

  There is an interesting question of whether Curley consulted with Chief Justice John Roberts. There is usually considerable coordination with the Chief Justice, but the approval of Roberts could cause later ethical issues if a challenge comes to the Court on appeal. If Roberts green lighted the letters, he is directly involved in the decision and effectively endorsed the underlying interpretation (and use) of the state laws. In such a case, he should recuse himself from any appeal.

  Roberts would not be the only one with conflict issues. All of the justices would be beneficiaries of such enforcement, but the six conservative justices are the subject of these specific protests. They could effectively resolve such conflicts by simply denying review in any challenge and allow the lower courts to be the final word on the constitutionality of such enforcement.

  Yet, some justices might not be pleased by the Marshal essentially advancing such a legal claim in calling for this crackdown on protesters. By sending the letter, Curley is speaking as a high-ranking official in the Judicial Branch. She is clearly not just encouraging the use of these laws, but implicitly saying that these laws can be used in this way to stop any further protests at these homes.

  What is striking about this effort is that Curley has reportedly not reached out to FBI for assistance in catching the leaker of the Dobbs decision. The Supreme Court is just a few blocks away from the leading expert agency in the world on computer and forensic investigations. Yet, Roberts and Curley have kept this investigation confined to their relatively small and inexperienced staff. That has left many of us perplexed since this is one of the greatest attacks on the internal operations and integrity of the Court in its history.

  The letter could well prompt a crackdown on the protesters. We could then watch these constitutional issues play out in court soon.

  Here is the Maryland letter: July-1-2022-letter-to-Hon.-Larry-Hogan

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 21:05

• Visualizing China's Rise To Economic Superpower
  Visualizing China’s Rise To Economic Superpower

  As the world still grapples with supply-chain backlogs (partially) caused by China’s strict Covid-19 policies, it has become painfully obvious how vulnerable the global economy is to national or even regional disruptions, especially if they happen in China, the world’s number one supplier of goods.

  In fact, as Statista’s Felix Richter explains below, over the past few decades, China has grown to become the world’s manufacturing hub and largest goods exporter by a significant margin, turning it from emerging market into economic superpower. According to estimates from the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, the country will account for 18.8 percent of the world’s GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP). That’s up from just 8.1 percent two decade ago, when both the United States and the EU were miles ahead of China’s economic output.

  

  You will find more infographics at Statista

  Over the past 20 years, both the U.S. and the European Union have seen their economic superiority challenged, as new powers, such as China, India and others have emerged. While the U.S. saw its share of global GDP decline from 19.8 to 15.8 percent between 2002 and 2022, the EU’s share dropped from 19.9 to 14.8 percent of the same period.

  The gap between China, the U.S. and the EU will likely widen over the next few years, as the economic outlook for the latter two is cloudy with a chance of recession, while China is expected to continue growing at mid-single-digit growth rates.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 20:25

• The Economic Growth That Never Was
  The Economic Growth That Never Was

  Authored by Tuomas Malinen via The Epoch Times,

  In March 2019, we published an ominous special report, entitled: Why the global growth model is broken. In it, we explained a troubling phenomenon: productivity growth in the world economy had stalled in 2011 and started to decline.

  We first noticed this in September 2017, and the situation has remained the same ever since. We named the period as the “Great Stagnation.”

  

  A figure presenting the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) in the regions of the world from 1990 to 2021. (GnS Economics, Conference Board)

  The total factor productivity, or TFP, presented in the figure above measures the share of GDP growth that cannot be accounted for by capital investment (in equipment and machinery) and the quantity and the improved quality of the labor force (skills and training). Effectively, TFP is the “unexplained” element of economic growth.

  Solow Model of Economic Growth (1956) first suggested that one can find the value of TFP by collecting data from observed factors for capital, labor, and economic growth, and then, by applying some basic statistical estimation techniques to the growth model, calculate TFP, or “Solow Residual” as the remainder. It was also discovered that a large part of GDP growth was explained by technological innovations rather than purely by capital and labor, which the “residual” or TFP represented (see, e.g., our blog for more info).

  In the December 2020 forecasting report, we postulated the perplexing problem of stagnated productivity growth as: “Stagnating global productivity growth is extremely worrying, because it implies that if firms are unable to increase their productivity, they will be unprofitable as well. And when their indebtedness grows yet profitability stagnates or falls, their ability to service debt will also diminish over time.”

  And we continued: “Decreasing productivity growth thus implies that the ability to increase profitability and service debt has diminished for several years—at the same we have become ever more indebted! Global debt is expected to reach an astonishing $277 trillion U.S. dollars, or around 350 percent of global GDP by the end of the year.”

  How did we end up here?

  It turns out—or we consider it the most plausible explanation—that the continuous monetary and fiscal stimulus by central banks and governments has destroyed or seriously damaged two main forces behind economic growth: creative destruction and the risk-and-reward relationship.

  Long-term economic growth is driven by technical innovations, which increase productivity. What this means is that innovations, from the spinning-jenny (practically a first actual industrial machine) to industrial robots (and beyond), grow the productivity of a human worker. This also increases his or her wage and makes products cheaper. This process, i.e., the growth of productivity, is behind the spectacular rise in living standards since the 18th century.

  However, this process assumes a crucial element dubbed as creative destruction due to its dual nature. It implies, simply, that more efficient (more productive) methods will replace the old and inefficient. This requires that old firms fail (go bankrupt) and new firms take their place. This process is at the heart of the capitalist market economy.

  Both gains and failures in the private sector drive economic progress. The former accumulates income and capital, while the latter uncovers sustainable businesses, setting the stage for creative destruction. Government plays an important role by setting laws, governing human and property rights, and guaranteeing income through social security, but it is, ultimately, the private sector and markets that drive progress. Do not let the MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) crowd tell you otherwise! As socialist market economy experiments have recurrently shown throughout history, this risk-and-reward relationship is essential for this creative destruction to work and for the economy to grow, dynamically.

  The reason that our economies have grown, relatively decently, after the Panic of 2008, is presented in the figure below.

  

  A figure presenting the ratios of debt to gross domestic product between main sectors of the economy in advanced countries from 1990 Q4 to 2021 Q3. (GnS Economics, BIS)

  It shows especially that government debt has grown quite a bit faster than GDP since 2008 in advanced (rich) economies. Without the massive growth of government debt, the world economy would not have grown at this speed. We have been in constant resuscitation since 2008!

  This has also made our economies fragile. Currently, they tend to succumb without constant support or at least when there are efforts to withdraw it. I have explained in my previous column why central banks have been forced to bail out the global economy and markets several times during the past five years. Now, with the aggressive rate hikes and balance sheet run-off (QT) of the Federal Reserve, we are fast approaching another breaking point, which is likely to require a full-scale bailout of the world economy.

  The European Central Bank is way ahead of the Fed. They are already planning an anti-fragmentation tool for the eurozone. In it, they plan to support the sovereign debt markets of the weakest members of the eurozone. Socialization of Europe is proceeding fast.

  There are also rumors of an another, considerably large “bailout” fund of the EU in the making. Just two years ago, EU members agreed on a 750 billion euro Recovery Fund.

  Back in 2020, Dr. Peter Nyberg, a retired director general of the Financial Markets Department at the Finnish Ministry of Finance, and I warned about the Stealth Federalization of the EU. The sovereignty of EU member states had been eroding slowly, but with the Recovery Fund, it took a massive leap forward. Another such a common-debt-scheme would effectively seal our fate.

  Alas, we have lived in a “mirage” of an economic recovery since the Great Financial Crisis. Our leaders on both sides of the Atlantic have not allowed the normal economic process, especially bankruptcies and failures, to clean our economies from unproductive, “parasitic” activities, over-indebtedness, and (zombified) companies.

  This is why our economies are so weak, and this is why we are heading either to a complete socialization of the world economy or an epic economic collapse. We, the people, have let our political leaders to “sleepwalk” us into this cataclysmic watershed. Now would be an excellent time to wake up.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 19:45

• Several Dead After Gunman Opens Fire At Copenhagen Mall
  Several Dead After Gunman Opens Fire At Copenhagen Mall

  Update (1910ET): ‘Several’ people have died and many more left injured following Sunday’s shooting at a Copenhagen mall.

  

  Officers were called to the Fields shopping center at 5:30 p.m. local time on Sunday following reports of a gunman firing shots. According to Chief police inspector Soren Thomassen, a 22-year-old Danish national was arrested in connection with the shooting.

  Thomassen added that the shooter targeted several areas within the mall, according to DW.

  “Several were killed, even more wounded. Innocent families shopping or eating out. Children, young people and adult,” said Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in response to the shooting, adding that it was “heartbreaking” and “pointless.”

  “I want to encourage Danish people to stand together and support each other at this difficult time,” she added.

  Danish newspaper Berlingske spoke to an eyewitness at the mall, who said shoppers rushed to leave the mall when the shooting began.

  “It was crazy,” said store worker Chelobeth Johansen. She said she heard several shots and could see people had started running before she shut the store and left the mall herself.

  “People first thought it was a thief … Then I suddenly hear shots and threw myself behind the counter inside the store,” another eyewitness Rikke Levandovski told TV2.

  “He is just shooting into the crowd, not up in the ceiling or into the floor,” she added.

  Shopper Laurits Hermansen told DR that he was in a clothing store with his family when he heard “three-four bangs. Really loud bangs. It sounded like the shots were being fired just next to the store.”

  The shooting took place just hours before pop star Harry Styles was to play a sold-out concert at the Royal Arena, which is just a short drive from the mall.

  Danish media reported that the gig was called off at the last minute. -DW

  Unconfirmed footage shows the suspected gunman holding a rifle to his head just one day before the shooting.

  #Update: Just in – Other personal Video footage of the 22 years old suspect holding his deer rifle on his head, prepared months ago, before and uploaded 1 day ago on youtube before he went and shot inside of the fields shopping mall in #Copenhagen in #Denmark today. pic.twitter.com/RIWPymK4dr

  — Sotiri Dimpinoudis (@sotiridi) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  #Update: Just in – More personal Video footages of the 22 years old suspect holding a Ludger german WWII pistol in his mouth, prepared months ago, before and uploaded 1 day ago on youtube before he went and shot inside of the fields shopping mall in #Copenhagen in #Denmark today. pic.twitter.com/5B9TKaexXL

  — Sotiri Dimpinoudis (@sotiridi) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  *  *  *

  Update (1322ET): DW News and Sky News both report one person has been arrested at the Field’s shopping mall in the capital of Copenhagen after a shooting inside the mall left several injured. 

  BREAKING NEWS: One person has been arrested following a shooting at the Field’s shopping centre in Copenhagen, according to Danish police.

  Latest: https://t.co/9JDAxwGY0L

  📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube pic.twitter.com/17PaUVCQZe

  — Sky News (@SkyNews) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  * * * 

  Copenhagen Police said gunshots were reported at the Fields shopping center in the capital of Copenhagen on Sunday evening. 

  

  “We are still present, shots have been fired and several people have been hit. We work on-site. People in the Fields must stay and await the police,” Copenhagen Police tweeted.

  

  Sky News now reporting the incident. 

  BREAKING NEWS: Police in Denmark say several people have been hit by gunshots at a shopping mall in Copenhagen.

  Latest: https://t.co/rxs04p0YTo

  📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube pic.twitter.com/mDJcvVKbIj

  — Sky News (@SkyNews) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Here’s an alleged video from within the shopping mall at the time of the incident. 

  #BREAKING Possible terror attack in #Copenhagen, #Denmark. Man on a shooting rampage inside ‘Fields’ shopping mall. Several people shot according to Danish police.
  The 25th of June – #Oslo experienced a islamistic terror attack, connected? https://t.co/CeWUpzumkC pic.twitter.com/17liSKP6a9

  — 𝐌𝐢𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐞𝐥 𝐀𝐫𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢 (@MArizanti) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  People were seen fleeing the mall. 

  #Breaking: Just in – Reports of a multiple gunshot event in #Copenhagen in #Denmark at a shopping center. pic.twitter.com/evBqci5Rio

  — Sotiri Dimpinoudis (@sotiridi) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Danish radio said heavily armed police have arrived on the scene as well as ambulances. 

  #Breaking: Just in – The Copenhagen police is treating this shooting inside the shopping center as a “serious mass victim event” and dozens of first emergency responders are parked outside the shopping center. #Copenhagen #Denmark pic.twitter.com/379xQgxLCq

  — Sotiri Dimpinoudis (@sotiridi) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  #Update: Just in – Police forces are evacuating and clearing the building of the fields shopping center in #Copenhagen in #Denmark, after a suspect shot multiple rounds inside the shopping center. pic.twitter.com/hhv7ZAecwH

  — Sotiri Dimpinoudis (@sotiridi) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  There are no official reports of how many people may have been killed or wounded.

  *Developing 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 19:11

• Understanding The Economic Crisis In Sri Lanka
  Understanding The Economic Crisis In Sri Lanka

  Sri Lanka is currently in an economic and political crisis of mass proportions, recently culminating in a default on its debt payments. The country is also nearly at empty on their foreign currency reserves, decreasing the ability to purchase imports and driving up domestic prices for goods.

  As Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop details below, there are several reasons for this crisis and the economic turmoil has sparked mass protests and violence across the country. This visual breaks down some of the elements that led to Sri Lanka’s current situation.

  

  A Timeline of Events

  The ongoing problems in Sri Lanka have bubbled up after years of economic mismanagement. Here’s a brief timeline looking at just some of the recent factors.

  2009

  In 2009, a decades-long civil war in the country ended and the government’s focus turned inward towards domestic production. However, a stress on local production and sales, instead of exports, increased the reliance on foreign goods.

  2019

  Unprompted cuts were introduced on income tax in 2019, leading to significant losses in government revenue, draining an already cash-strapped country.

  2020

  The COVID-19 pandemic hit the world causing border closures globally and stifling one of Sri Lanka’s most lucrative industries. Prior to the pandemic, in 2018, tourism contributed nearly 5% of the country’s GDP and generated over 388,000 jobs. In 2020, tourism’s share of GDP had dropped to 0.8%, with over 40,000 jobs lost to that point.

  2021

  Recently, the Sri Lankan government introduced a ban on foreign-made chemical fertilizers. The ban was meant to counter the depletion of the country’s foreign currency reserves.

  However, with only local, organic fertilizers available to farmers, a massive crop failure occurred and Sri Lankans were subsequently forced to rely even more heavily on imports, further depleting reserves.

  April 2022

  In early April this year, massive protests calling for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation, sparked in Sri Lanka’s capital city, Colombo.

  May 2022

  In May, pro-government supporters brutally attacked protesters. Subsequently, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, brother of President Rajapaksa, stepped down and was replaced with former PM, Ranil Wickremesinghe.

  June 2022

  Recently, the government approved a four-day work week to allow citizens an extra day to grow food, as prices continue to shoot up. Food inflation increased over 57% in May.

  Additionally, the increasing prices on grain caused by the war in Ukraine and rising fuel prices globally have played into an already dire situation in Sri Lanka.

  The Key Information

  “Our economy has completely collapsed.”

  – PRIME MINISTER RANIL WICKREMESINGHE TO PARLIAMENT LAST WEEK.

  One of the main causes of the economic crisis in Sri Lanka is the reliance on imports and the amount spent on them. Let’s take a look at the numbers:

  • 2021 total imports = $20.6 billion USD

  • 2022 total imports (to March) = $5.7 billion USD

  In contrast, the most recent reported foreign currency reserve levels in the country were at an abysmal $50 million, having plummeted an astounding 99%, from $7.6 billion in 2019.

  Some of the top imports in 2021, according to the country’s central bank were:

  • Refined petroleum = $2.8 billion

  • Textiles = $3.1 billion

  • Chemical products = $1.1 billion

  • Food & beverage = $1.7 billion

  Of course, without the cash to purchase these goods from abroad, Sri Lankans face an increasingly drastic situation.

  Additionally, the debt Sri Lanka has incurred is huge, further hampering their ability to boost their reserves. Recently, they defaulted on a $78 million loan from international creditors, and in total, they’ve borrowed $50.7 billion.

  The largest source of their debt is by far due to market borrowings, followed closely by loans taken from the Asian Development Bank, China, and Japan, among others.

  What it Means

  Sri Lanka is home to more than 22 million people who are rapidly losing the ability to purchase everyday goods. Consumer inflation reached 39% at the end of May.

  Due to power outages meant to save energy and fuel, schools are currently shuttered and children have nowhere to go during the day. Protesters calling for the president’s resignation have been camped in the capital for months, facing tear gas from police and backlash from president Rajapaksa’s supporters, but many have also responded violently to pushback.

  India and China have agreed to send help to the country and the the International Monetary Fund recently arrived in the country to discuss a bailout. Additionally, the government has sent ministers to Russia to discuss a deal for discounted oil imports.

  A Foreshadowing for Low Income Countries

  Governments need foreign currency in order to purchase goods from abroad. Without the ability to purchase or borrow foreign currency, the Sri Lankan government cannot buy desperately needed imports, including food staples and fuel, causing domestic prices to rise.

  Furthermore, defaults on loan payments discourage foreign direct investment and devalue the national currency, making future borrowing more difficult.

  What’s happening in Sri Lanka may be an ominous preview of what’s to come in other low and middle-income countries, as the risk of debt distress continues to rise globally.

  The Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) was implemented by G20 countries, suspending nearly $13 billion in debt from the start of the pandemic until late 2021.

  

  Some DSSI and LIC countries facing a high risk of debt distress include Zambia, Ethiopia, and Tajikistan, to name a few.

  Going forward, Sri Lanka’s next steps in managing this situation will either serve as a useful exam for other countries at risk or a warning worth heeding.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 19:05

• To Avoid Civil War, Learn To Tolerate Different Laws In Different States
  To Avoid Civil War, Learn To Tolerate Different Laws In Different States

  Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

  Most commentary on the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization—which overturns Roe v. Wade—has focused on the decision’s effect on the legality of abortion in various states. That’s an important issue. It may be, however, that the Dobbs decision’s effect on political decentralization in the United States is a far bigger deal.

  After all, the ruling isn’t so much about abortion as it is about the federal government’s role in abortion. State governments are free to make abortion 100 percent legal within their own borders. Some states have already done so. The court’s ruling limits only the federal government’s prerogatives over abortion law, and this has the potential to lead to many other limitations on federal power as well. In this way, Dobbs is a victory for those seeking to limit federal power. 

  The decentralization is all to the good, and there’s nothing novel about it. Historically, state laws in the US have varied broadly on a variety of topics from alcohol consumption to divorce. This was also true of abortion before Roe v. Wade. 

  Moreover, decentralizing abortion policy in this way actually works to defuse national conflict. This is becoming even more important as cultural divides in the United States are clearly accelerating and become more entrenched. Rather than fight with increasing alarm and aggression over who controls the federal government—and thus who imposes the winner’s preferences on everyone else—people in different states will have more choices in choosing whether to live under proabortion or antiabortion regimes. In other words, decentralization forces policymakers to behave as they should in a confederation of states: they must tolerate people doing things differently across state lines.  This will be essential in avoiding disaster, and laissez-faire liberals (i.e., “classical liberals”) have long supported decentralization as a key in avoiding dangerous political conflicts. Ludwig von Mises, for example, supported decentralization because, as he put it, it “is the only feasible and effective way of preventing revolutions and civil … wars.”

  

  The Impulse to Use Federal Power to Force Policy on Everyone

  Law has never been uniform across state lines in the United States, although this was not for a lack of trying on the part of the federal government. As the power of the federal government grew throughout the twentieth century, the central government repeatedly sought to make policy uniform and put it under the control of federal courts and regulatory agencies. Prior to Roe v. Wade, abortion was a state and local matter only. Before the drug war, the federal government did not dictate to states what plants they should let their citizens consume. Before the Volstead Act, “dry” states and “wet” states had far different policies on alcohol sales. Some states had lenient divorce laws. Some did not. Some states allowed gambling. Even immigration was once the domain of state government. Although some federal law enforcement agents existed in the nineteenth century, “law and order” was overwhelmingly a state and local matter prior to the rise of agencies like the FBI. 

  The cumulative effect of making all these areas the prerogative of federal regulators, agents, and courts has been to convince many Americans that the United States government ought to federalize most areas of daily life. In the modern way of thinking, only less important or trivial matters are to be left up to the state and local governments. For many Americans, they learned to just think that it was abnormal for the state next door to have different gun policies or drug policies than one’s home state. 

  Drugs, Alcohol, and Guns

  In the past decade, this impulse to intervene in neighboring states has been highlighted by the de facto end of nationwide marijuana prohibition in the United States. Beginning in 2012 with Colorado and Washington State, recreational marijuana use has become essentially legal in nearly two dozen US states. This means a resident of one state can travel to a neighboring state to consume a drug that is illegal in his or her home state. Some state governments have a hard time dealing with this. Politicians in antimarijuana states complained that their citizens had too much access to prohibited substances. Not surprisingly, attorneys general in Nebraska and Oklahoma sued Colorado in federal court in an attempt to force Colorado to reimpose marijuana prohibition on its citizens. Fortunately, these lawsuits—which if successful would have greatly expanded federal power over states—failed. 

  Alcohol prohibition grew out of the same desire to force some states’ preferences on all other states. In 1917, only twenty-seven states embraced statewide prohibition. It took a constitutional amendment to impose prohibition on all the rest. 

  Moreover, laws governing the purchase and carry of firearms vary broadly from state to state, with “constitutional carry” allowing permitless carry in some states. Some states allow for private gun sales without any background checks. Other states greatly restrict these activities. Naturally, policy makers who oppose the freedom to carry firearms have sought for many decades to impose uniform gun policy nationwide. 

  Federal Centralization Run Amok: The Fugitive Slave Acts 

  The most notorious case of using the federal government to impose nationwide uniformity is likely the Fugitive Slave Acts (passed in 1793 and 1850). Contrary to the myth that slave owners hated a strong federal government and wanted only local control, slave drivers enthusiastically and repeatedly invoked the federal fugitive slave laws. This was done in order to force Northern governments to cooperate with Southern states in kidnapping runaway slaves and returning them to their “owners.” The Dred Scott decision extended federal protections of slavery even further, and the ruling allowed many slave owners to argue they could even take their slaves into nonslave states and territories, regardless of state and local laws prohibiting slavery.

  Many abolitionists refused to acknowledge federal prerogatives and actively opposed federal agents who attempted to enforce federal laws extending slavery beyond the slave states. Some Northern governments explicitly refused to cooperate with the Fugitive Slave Acts. So successful were these efforts to undermine federal law that South Carolina secessionists listed the failure of federal slave laws as a reason for secession in 1860. Slavery advocates were enraged by the idea that their neighbors in other states weren’t being forced to help prop up the slave system. 

  After Roe, States Are Quickly Decentralizing American Abortion Law

  In all of these cases, the perceived “answer” offered by proponents of legal uniformity was to bring in the federal government to force people in state A to do the bidding of people in state B. Thanks to the overturning of Roe, however, many states are moving in exactly the opposite direction. 

  Some states have moved toward prohibiting abortion within their own borders. But proabortion states are also taking some key legal steps toward further decentralizing policy. Policy makers in Massachusetts have moved to protect the state’s citizens from extradition to antiabortion states for abortion-related crimes. The state’s governor also signed an executive order prohibiting the state’s agencies “from assisting another state’s investigation into a person or entity” for abortion-related activities. New York’s governor has signed legislation “that shields [abortion] providers and patients from civil liability” in abortion-related claims. The message here: “Those laws in antiabortion states have no power here.”

  Centralization Breeds Conflict

  This is the way the system was designed to work. People can choose to live in state A, where abortion is illegal. But should some of those people travel to state B to get an abortion, state B ought to be under no obligation to help state A enforce its laws either inside or outside the state. To demand anything more than this inevitably ends up involving the federal government to impose new obligations on every state. (This strategy of centralizing power should not be confused with trying to directly change laws within those states. It is, of course, a good thing to pressure governments to end unjust laws from within, but such efforts are totally different than calling in the federal government to end abortion by federal fiat.)

  As we have seen with abortion, slavery, drugs, and guns, when the feds are involved, every national election ends up being a referendum on whatever issue is deemed so important that the federal government must impose one way of doing things on everyone. This only makes national politics even more nasty.

  The end of Roe v. Wade may end up emphasizing the political and cultural divisions in America by forcing many Americans to recognize that the United States is not one place. It is many places. This is not a problem, however, if we relearn that rather than employ federal coercion to “solve” the world’s problems, it’s perhaps better to tolerate others doing things differently in other parts of the world. On the other hand, if Americans can’t shake the idea that the regime must force one way of life on everyone, we can expect national political divides to grow ever more bitter. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 18:25

• Apple Hikes iPhone 13 By 19% In Japan Months After CFO Cites FX Concerns
  Apple Hikes iPhone 13 By 19% In Japan Months After CFO Cites FX Concerns

  People in Japan who want the latest iPhone are going to have to pony up nearly 20% more, according to Nikkei Asia and confirmed by 9to5Mac.

  

  While the iPhone 14 is set to launch in September, Apple hiked the the price of the existing iPhone 13 from 62,800 yen ($423) to 144,800 yen ($1,060), up from $423 and $899 respectively.

  According to 9to5Mac, the higher prices – which are still less than US consumers are paying – may be a reflection of a weakening yen.

  During an April 28 earnings release, Apple CFO Luca Maestri said that foreign exchange rates were becoming a problem for the company, as revenue forecasts are calculated in dollars, and turbulent FX rates will likely impact sales numbers for the June quarter.

  As you can see, iPhone prices in Japan were even lower than in the United States. Unfortunately, Japan’s local currency has lost about 15% of its value compared to the US dollar in the last three months, which ultimately has an impact on the price of imported products.

  Despite the price increase, iPhone sales in Japan seem to be doing well. Recent research shows that the new third-generation iPhone SE has been in strong demand in the Asian country, accounting for 18% of local smartphone sales in April. -9to5Mac

  Meanwhile, iPads are now 25% more expensive at 49,800 yen ($368), and the Apple Watch saw a boost as well. In June, there was a 10% price hike on MacBook Air and MacBook Pro models for the Japanese market.

  The higher price point all but ensures that the iPhone 14 will have a higher price in Japan compared to the iPhone 13’s launch price last year.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 17:45

• Shellenberger: Yes, You Can Blame Biden For High Energy Prices
  Shellenberger: Yes, You Can Blame Biden For High Energy Prices

  Authored by Michael Shellenberger via Substack,

  The experts were wrong once again…

  

  This July 4th, as you fill up your car or truck, you might be tempted to blame President Joe Biden for high gasoline prices.

  You shouldn’t, say some experts. It’s Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fault, they say. The US had to cut off Russian oil imports to punish Putin for invading Ukraine.

  Meanwhile, Biden himself has blamed the American energy industry.

  “At a time of war,” Biden wrote in an open letter to the industry on June 15, “high refinery profit margins being passed directly onto American families are not acceptable… companies must take immediate actions to increase the supply of gasoline, diesel, and other refined product.”

  But US refineries are already operating at 94 percent of their capacity, with US refineries in the Gulf of Mexico running at 98 percent, which is the highest rate in 30 years. Running refineries at a higher capacity than that risks damaging the equipment. As such, Biden isn’t just wrong, he insulted some of the hardest working people operating in one of the most dangerous industries in America.

  CHART OF THE DAY: US refineries in the Gulf of Mexico (PADD3) are running the hottest for this time of the year in at least 30 years: 97.9% of their capacity running. Surreal. You can not run hardest than this. Whatever the White House says | #OOTT pic.twitter.com/NpcpkwDuBl

  — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) June 29, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  But, on May 12, Biden’s Interior Department blocked a proposal to open up more than one million acres of land in Alaska for oil and gas drilling. Two days later, Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency blocked plans to expand an oil refinery in the US Virgin Islands.

  Biden and his defenders said he had to block the expansion of the Virgin Islands refinery, given how polluting it was.

  But had Biden’s EPA allowed the Virgin Island refinery to expand, the owners would have poured nearly $3 billion into retrofitting the plant so it produced gasoline and other products more cleanly, while significantly increasing production at the same time.

  Furthermore, anybody who cares about air pollution and climate change should want more oil and gas drilling, not less. US emissions declined 22% between 2005 and 2020, mostly because cheap natural gas has replaced coal.

  In truth, there are many things Biden could have done, and still should do, to lower energy prices. He could invoke the National Defense Act to accelerate the rate of oil and gas permits. He could set a floor of $80/barrel for re-filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which would be a powerful incentive for the industry, because it would prevent prices from falling to unprofitable levels. Biden could announce trade agreements with American allies to supply them with liquified natural gas, which would incentivize more natural gas production and lower prices.

  If Biden got America on a wartime footing, as he should be given Russia’s aggression in Europe, we would see the lowering of oil, gas and petroleum prices in less than one year.

  Why won’t Biden do it?

  Because he has declared war on fossil fuels.

   “I guarantee you, we’re going to end fossil fuel,” Biden promised a student climate activist in 2019.

  “I am not going to cooperate with them,” he said, referring to the oil and gas industry.

  And indeed, he hasn’t.

  When oil and gas executives visited the White House in June, Biden snubbed them by refusing to attend the meeting. Instead, at the very same moment, he met with wind industry executives. A few days earlier, Biden administration officials signaled they may support a large new tax on the oil industry proposed by a Senator from Oregon.

  All of this has soured the oil and gas industry on investing in production.

  “If you were an oil company,” a senior executive at a major US bank told me, “why would you invest hundreds of millions of dollars into expanding refining capacity if you thought the federal government or investors would shut you down in the next few years? The narrative coming from the administration is absolutely insane.”

  And it’s about to get more insane. At the G-7 meeting in Germany earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron was overheard telling Biden that he couldn’t count on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to produce much more oil. Implicit in Macron’s remarks was that the US needs to produce far more than Biden has been willing to allow.

  The problem is that Biden is in the grip of a pro-scarcity ideology that demands humankind return to relying 100 percent on renewables, like we did before the industrial revolution. But that’s a delusion…

  Keep reading with a 7-day free trial Subscribe to Michael Shellenberger to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 17:10

• Visualizing Interest Rate Hikes Vs Inflation Rate, By Country
  Visualizing Interest Rate Hikes Vs Inflation Rate, By Country

  Imagine today’s high inflation like a car speeding down a hill. In order to slow it down, you need to hit the brakes. In this case, the “brakes” are interest rate hikes intended to slow spending. However, as Visual Capitalist’s Jenna Ross explains, some central banks are hitting the brakes faster than others.

  This graphic uses data from central banks and government websites to show how policy interest rates and inflation rates have changed since the start of the year. It was inspired by a chart created by Macrobond.

  

  How Do Interest Rate Hikes Combat Inflation?

  To understand how interest rates influence inflation, we need to understand how inflation works. Inflation is the result of too much money chasing too few goods. Over the last several months, this has occurred amid a surge in demand and supply chain disruptions worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

  In an effort to combat inflation, central banks will raise their policy rate. This is the rate they charge commercial banks for loans or pay commercial banks for deposits. Commercial banks pass on a portion of these higher rates to their customers, which reduces the purchasing power of businesses and consumers. For example, it becomes more expensive to borrow money for a house or car.

  Ultimately, interest rate hikes act to slow spending and encourage saving. This motivates companies to increase prices at a slower rate, or lower prices, to stimulate demand.

  Rising Interest Rates and Inflation

  With inflation rates hitting multi-decade highs in some countries, many central banks have announced interest rate hikes. Below, we show how the inflation rate and policy interest rate have changed for select countries and regions since January 2022. The jurisdictions are ordered from highest to lowest current inflation rate.

  

   

  The Euro area has 3 policy rates; the data above represents the main refinancing operations rate. Inflation data is as of May 2022 except for New Zealand and Australia, where the latest quarterly data is as of March 2022.

   

  The U.S. Federal Reserve has been the most aggressive with its interest rate hikes. It has raised its policy rate by 1.5% since January, with half of that increase occurring at the June 2022 meeting. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said the committee would like to “do a little more front-end loading” to bring policy rates to normal levels. The action comes as the U.S. faces its highest inflation rate in 40 years.

  On the other hand, the European Union is experiencing inflation of 8.1% but has not yet raised its policy rate. The European Central Bank has, however, provided clear forward guidance. It intends to raise rates by 0.25% in July, by a possibly larger increment in September, and with gradual but sustained increases thereafter. Clear forward guidance is intended to help people make spending and investment decisions, and avoid surprises that could disrupt markets.

  Pacing Interest Rate Hikes

  Raising interest rates is a fine balancing act. If central banks raise rates too quickly, it’s like slamming the brakes on that car speeding downhill: the economy could come to a standstill. This occurred in the U.S. in the 1980’s when the Federal Reserve, led by Chair Paul Volcker, raised the policy rate to 20%. The economy went into a recession, though the aggressive monetary policy did eventually tame double digit inflation.

  However, if rates are raised too slowly, inflation could gather enough momentum that it becomes difficult to stop. The longer high price increases linger, the more future inflation expectations build. This can result in people buying more in anticipation of prices rising further, perpetuating high demand.

  “There’s always a risk of going too far or not going far enough, and it’s going to be a very difficult judgment to make.”

  – JEROME POWELL, U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR

  It’s worth noting that while central banks can influence demand through policy rates, this is only one side of the equation. Inflation is also being caused by supply chain issues, a problem that is more or less outside of the control of central banks.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 16:35

• Morgan Stanley: As The Recession Arrives, Will We See A Surge In Corporate Defaults
  Morgan Stanley: As The Recession Arrives, Will We See A Surge In Corporate Defaults

  By Vishwanath Tirupattur, global head of Quantitative Research at Morgan Stanley

  For some time, our economists have been highlighting that recession risks are rising globally. In their mid-year outlook, they lowered their 2022 global growth forecast sharply to 2.9%Y, less than half the 6.2%Y level a year ago. Since then, deceleration has continued. The combination of updated forecasts for a recession in the euro area, weaker incoming data, and revisions to 1Q GDP has led our US economists to shift down their 2022 US GDP forecast to 0.9% 4Q/4Q, and they have suggested that the risk of a US recession by the end of this year is high. A hallmark of the last three US recessions has been a spike in corporate credit default rates. We would argue that the credit default experience in a potential US recession may be more moderate this time around. However, despite the significant repricing in June, valuation adjustment is still incomplete.

  At the onset of the current hiking cycle, credit fundamentals were on a much healthier footing than in other cycles. Despite some deterioration at the margin in the last quarter, fundamentals remain reasonable and in line with pre-Covid levels – low net leverage, high interest coverage, and still-healthy cash on balance sheet. The ratings mix of the high yield bond market has improved. Currently, over half of the benchmark HY bond index is BB rated, versus 43% in 2018-19 and 40% in the aftermath of the GFC. Furthermore, refinancing needs are low. During 2022-24, only about 10% of the US$3 trillion in leveraged finance debt (high yield bonds and leveraged loans combined) is due to mature.

  

  We expect higher risk premiums in credit but do not anticipate a spike in corporate defaults over the next 12 months. Our credit strategists, led by Srikanth Sankaran, forecast HY default rates to track 2-2.5% on the Moody’s count-weighted measure through 2Q23 – double the current levels but well inside prior recession peaks. While this would be a notable departure from the experience of the last three recessions, it is not without precedent. In the 1970s and 1980s, we had recessions but without a spike in corporate default rates. No doubt stresses could increase over the medium term, but the more imminent concern is downgrades.

  

  Leveraged loans are the segment of the credit markets most vulnerable to higher rates, given their floating-rate nature. Over the course of past few years, we have seen the loan market drift towards the lower-quality segments (B3/B- ratings). Moody’s estimates that if rates were to increase by 300bp, absent meaningful earnings growth, as many as half of the B3 rated companies would see their interest coverage fall below 1.0x – a level more typical of a Caa rating than B3. Not surprisingly, the downgrade potential is much greater for companies that depend on leveraged loans (floating-rate liabilities) rather than the fixed-rate high yield bonds for funding. Thus we expect downgrades, particularly in the loan market, to be a bigger and more immediate concern for credit markets over the next 12 months rather than spiking defaults.

  

  Until about a month ago, we could argue that credit markets in general, and leveraged credit in particular, were underpricing recession risks. After the sell-off in June, US HY spreads are ~150bp wider, loan prices are down 2.5 points, CCC spreads have breached 1,000bp, and stressed tails have doubled. Clearly, growth risks are starting to be priced, but we think that the credit markets need to calibrate the risk of a recession more fully. For context, IG and HY spreads are at 155bp and 569bp, respectively, while garden-variety recessions/growth scares tend to see spreads go north of 200bp and 750bp, respectively. Thus, more repricing is needed since spreads are still shy of historical levels heading into a recession, especially in the lower-quality segments of the market. Unlike some previous credit cycles (such as the energy sector downturn in 2015-16), we don’t have a ‘problem sector’ per se. As such, identifying defensive sectors and flagging sectors to stay away from is more complicated this time around. Companies with a heavy reliance on low-end consumer demand, elevated wage intensity, and commodity/logistics input costs remain vulnerable in this regard.

  As the market recalibrates growth and liquidity risks, we expect decompression and dispersion themes to re-emerge. We would fade any rally in credit markets and recommend investors move up in quality/improve the liquidity profile of their portfolios.

  Enjoy your Sunday.

   

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 16:00

• Home Price Cuts, Rising Inventories Are Ominous Signs Of Top
  Home Price Cuts, Rising Inventories Are Ominous Signs Of Top

  The pandemic housing boom hit a peak and should start rolling over as rising inventory forces some home sellers to slash prices. The weight of soaring mortgage rates and increasing inventory are the possible markings of a top that has already led some sellers in major US cities to cut listing prices. 

  “The housing market is absolutely in need of a reset,” George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com, told Bloomberg. 

  Realtor.com’s data showed almost a third of listings in June had price cuts in Austin, Phoenix, and Las Vegas metro areas. Price cuts are a growing national trend as higher rates triggered an affordability crisis, removing millions of new prospective home buyers. 

  

  Bloomberg spoke with Naples, Florida, real estate agent Jennifer DeFrancesco who advised her clients to drop listing prices as she believes the flood of demand from the Northeast has eased. 

  Carolyn Young, a broker associate with Christie’s International Real Estate Sereno in the San Francisco Bay Area, said demand for homes in a 55-and-over community in Brentwood had seen dramatic declines since many retirees were battered by awful performance in their stock and bond portfolios in the first half. She advised clients at Trilogy at the Vineyards to lower their listings by $50,000 to $100,000 because of faltering demand. 

  “For sellers, it’s devastating, especially if they bought something else earlier and paid too much for that,” Young said.

  Price cutting comes as a flood of inventory enters a very tight market. Another Realtor.com report this week showed the number of active US listings soared 18.7% in June from a year earlier.

  

  Danielle Hale, the chief economist for Realtor.com, said, “We anticipated that more inventory will eventually cool the feverish pace of competition.” The rise in inventory was more profound in Austin, Texas; Phoenix, Arizona; and Raleigh, North Carolina, which saw active listings more than double from a year ago. In Nashville, Tennessee, active listings jumped 86%, and 72% in Riverside, California. 

  Mortgage applications and pending home sales are down, which suggests the jump in the 30-year fixed-loan mortgage rate from 3% to over 6% this year (back in March, we warned coming rate explosion would trigger a housing affordability crisis) is quickly cooling the market. Next, we should first see price declines in areas that were red hot during the early days of the pandemic.

  

  It’s only a matter of time before the Case-Shiller (newly minted S&P CoreLogic CS) home price index data turns. 

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 15:25

• NY Governor To Require 3 Years Of Social Media History To Obtain Concealed Carry Permit
  NY Governor To Require 3 Years Of Social Media History To Obtain Concealed Carry Permit

  Within an hour of the US Supreme Court striking down a law which required New York residents to show “proper cause” to obtain a concealed carry license, Governor Kathy Hochul (D) promised legislation to counter the ruling.

  To that end, Hochul on Friday signed sweeping gun legislation into law that adds several layers of red tape for those who wish to obtain a gun in the state – including a new rule requiring anyone applying for a concealed carry permit to submit a three-year history of their current and inactive social media accounts. The new law will take effect on September 1, 2022.

  Applicants for concealed carry permits must also undergo 16 hours of firearm training, provide four character references, and list the contact information for domestic partners or adults who reside in the same house.

  More via the Post Millennial:

  Potential applicants will also be required to show “good moral character,” meaning “the essential character, temperament and judgment necessary to be entrusted with a weapon and to use it only in a manner that does not endanger oneself and others.”

  At a press conference regarding the new legislation, Hochul said “we are creating a definitive list of sensitive locations where individuals will not be able to carry firearms.“

  I just signed a new law to keep New Yorkers safe – even in the face of a monumental setback from the Supreme Court.

  Thanks to @AndreaSCousins, @CarlHeastie, and our legislative partners for your quick work and collaboration to pass these critical gun safety reforms. pic.twitter.com/AIujZJz0TP

  — Governor Kathy Hochul (@GovKathyHochul) July 2, 2022

  This list includes “schools, summer camps, libraries, daycares, parks and playgrounds, places children gather, theaters, museums, entertainment venues, places of worship for religious observation, polling places, educational institutions, and health medical facilities. Federal State Local government buildings, homeless and domestic violence shelters, places where alcohol is consumed, restaurants, bars, public transportation, subway buses, airports and at public demonstrations and rallies, and in Times Square.”

  Another new rule is a “Default of No Concealed Carry on Private Property and Businesses Unless Deemed Permissible by Property Owners.” Hochul said of this law, “We are making ‘no open carry’ the default position for private businesses. That means that any business, grocery store, retail, private home, place that wants to allow guns on their premises will have to demonstrate that and establish that they put a sign out there that says concealed carry guns are welcome here.”

  *  *  *

  One day after the June 23 ruling in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen, both Hochul and NYC Mayor Eric Adams vowed to enact legislation that would work around the USSC ruling.

  “Our state will continue to keep New Yorkers safe from harm even despite this setback from the Supreme Court,” Hochul said on Friday.

  In reaction, the state GOP said “the legislation not only violated the Second Amendment, but also privacy and free speech rights,” according to the Associated Press. The lawmakers were reportedly “incensed” and predicted that the new rules would be struck down.

  As Jonathan Turley further notes;

  One of the most questionable elements is the requirement that gun owners show “good moral character.” That obviously raises comparisons to the invalid Sullivan Act of 1911, giving local officials discretion over who can carry concealed guns based on a showing of “proper cause.”  The Court rejected the notion that citizens must prove their need to use an individual right as opposed to the government shouldering the countervailing burden:

  “We know of no other constitutional right that an individual may exercise only after demonstrating to government officers some special need. That is not how the First Amendment works when it comes to unpopular speech or the free exercise of religion. It is not how the Sixth Amendment works when it comes to a defendant’s right to confront the witnesses against him. And it is not how the Second Amendment works when it comes to public carry for self-defense.

  New York’s proper-cause requirement violates the Fourteenth Amendment in that it prevents law-abiding citizens with ordinary self-defense needs from exercising their right to keep and bear arms.”

  Under the New York law, applicants must undergo “enhanced screening” with in-person interviews and submit to reviews of their social media, including required access to social media. That provision seems ripe for challenge on a host of grounds, including the denial of free speech and associations rights.

  The law seems another overreach by the state. As I noted earlier, New York has thus far been about as effective in curtailing gun rights as Monty Python’s “Judean People’s Front Crack Suicide Squad” was effective in combating Roman occupation.

  After all, who needs Texas when gun rights advocates have New York?

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 14:50

• Russia Asserts Full Control Over Luhansk Region With Fall Of Lysychansk
  Russia Asserts Full Control Over Luhansk Region With Fall Of Lysychansk

  Fresh of their victory over the key stronghold of Sievierodonetsk, Russian forces have claimed victory over its sister city of Lysychansk, which puts Russia in total control of the Luhansk province. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu affirmed as much in a Sunday statement, while the Ukrainian regional governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Haidai, said the “city is on fire”. 

  “Sergei Shoigu has informed the commander in chief of the Russian armed forces, Vladimir Putin, of the liberation of the People’s Republic of Luhansk [LPR],” the defense ministry said in a statement.

  

  Russia’s military and its separatist allies are now “full control of Lysychansk and other nearby towns, notably Belogorovka, Novodruzhesk, Maloryazantseve and Bila Hora,” the statement added.

  As for the aforementioned regional governor Haidai, he wrote on Telegram that “the Russians are reinforcing their positions in the Lysychansk region.”

  “The Russians are entrenched in the Lysychansk district, the city is on fire. The occupiers probably deployed all their forces at Lysychansk. They attacked the city with inexplicably brutal tactics,” Haidai said.

  As Luhansk and its breakaway pro-Russian republic is one of the two key regions that form Donbas, this puts Moscow a major step closer to achieving its stated goal of liberating all of the Donbas.

  A representative of the LPR militia, Andrei Marochko, said the city was being “cleared of Ukrainian nationalists” and said “victory flags have already been installed” near Lysychansk, as cited in CNN. Some reports have said that local pro-Russian citizens have erected a Soviet flag at a central city monument.

  According to a battlefield update issued by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky Saturday night:

  …the cities of the Luhansk region were “the epicenter” of the hostilities. In his nightly address on Saturday, Zelensky acknowledged that more than 2,600 Ukrainian cities and towns were under Russian control.

  “The Russian army continued to fire missiles at our cities,” Zelensky said, urging people to “help the army, help volunteers, help everyone who was left alone at this time” and to use their contacts to “spread the truth about the war and about the crimes of the occupiers on our land.”

  A Ukrainian soldier launching a Javelin ATGM from the back of a pick up truck. https://t.co/qvHg6LU1Li pic.twitter.com/gj9P03zLFJ

  — Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 2, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  An Al Jazeera war correspondent observed of Lysychansk’s capture by Russian forces, “That is strategically significant because that is where the Russians moved their military attention to after they failed to move into Kyiv in the early days of the war when they were beaten back from the capital.”

  Last week, in virtual speeches before the G7 and NATO summits, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky used the imminent fall of these eastern cities to highlight that his forces are in urgent need of more and heavier weaponry. He even suggested Putin could eventually go on to attack NATO “next year”.

  

  He said that before next year’s NATO annual summit, it could be that “several other states, possible members of the alliance, come under fire from Russia” and expressed hope he will attend the meeting in-person by then.

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 13:45

• "Misdirection" Or "Misunderstanding" – Bezos Blasts Biden Blaming Gas Station Owners For High Prices
  “Misdirection” Or “Misunderstanding” – Bezos Blasts Biden Blaming Gas Station Owners For High Prices

  Authored by Rick Moran via PJMedia.com,

  Do we need to give prospective presidents an economic literacy test?

  There’s little doubt that, judging by this tweet, Joe Biden would get an “F.”

  My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a time of war and global peril.

  Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you’re paying for the product. And do it now.

  — President Biden (@POTUS) July 2, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Wow. Jeff Bezos accused the U.S. president of either deliberately misleading the public or lacking a “basic” understanding of the forces that actually drive prices.

  Ouch. Inflation is far too important a problem for the White House to keep making statements like this. It’s either straight ahead misdirection or a deep misunderstanding of basic market dynamics. https://t.co/XgKfEICZpk

  — Jeff Bezos (@JeffBezos) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Biden apparently doesn’t know that gas station owners are mostly independent small businesses whose razor-thin profit margins make it impossible to willy-nilly lower prices at the pump just because the president orders them to.

  Shut up and sit down you weasel handler!

  We are NOT in a war and ma & pa gas station owners ARE making their prices to reflect what they’re paying for it. https://t.co/3AbgQX24Ek

  — Kristi (@Kristi_Weaver4) July 2, 2022

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  “You know as well as everyone that the Federal Reserve actually sets the prices—through rampant inflation,” wrote the Libertarian Party’s account.

  “When 40 percent of the dollars in the world was printed in one year, inflation sets in and prices skyrocket. Just yesterday you were blaming [Russia]. We see through your scam.”

  You know as well as everyone that the Federal Reserve actually sets the prices – through rampant inflation. When 40% of the dollars in the world was printed in one year, inflation sets in and prices skyrocket.

  Just yesterday you were blaming Putin.

  We see through your scam.

  — Libertarian Party (@LPNational) July 2, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  Added California gubernatorial candidate Michael Shellenberger,

  “At a time of war, Biden could have leveled with the American people and united the country through an ‘all-of-the-above’ clean energy strategy that included oil & gas. Instead, he has repeatedly lied about the causes of the energy crisis and divided the country.”

  At a time of war, Biden could have leveled with the American people and united the country through an “all-of-the-above” clean energy strategy that included oil & gas.

  Instead, he has repeatedly lied about the causes of the energy crisis and divided the country.

  — Michael Shellenberger (@ShellenbergerMD) July 3, 2022

  https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  At least the Chinese agree with Biden.

  They mocked the American president for proving their point about “capitalist exploitation.” New York Post:

  In response to Biden’s demand that oil companies lower their prices, the president was trolled by Chinese state media.

  “Now US President finally realized that capitalism is all about exploitation. He didn’t believe this before,” wrote Chen Weihua, EU Bureau Chief and columnist for China Daily, an English language media outlet owned by the Chinese Communist Party.

  Biden’s unseemly begging comes on the heels of a White House advisor’s warning that we must suffer these high prices for fuel because “This is about the future of the liberal world order, and we have to stand firm.”

  

  Biden himself suggested Americans are just going to have to grit their teeth and get used to it. At a press conference in Madrid, he made it clear that the high prices would be with us as long as Ukraine could convince the United States to stand with them

  Q : The war [in Ukraine] has pushed [oil] prices up.  They could go as high as $200 a barrel, some analysts think.  How long is it fair to expect American drivers and drivers around the world to pay that premium for this war?

  THE PRESIDENT:  As long as it takes, so Russia cannot, in fact, defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine.  This is a critical, critical position for the world.  Here we are.  Why do we have NATO?

  “So Russia cannot, in fact, defeat Ukraine and move beyond Ukraine,” is very cold war-ish, don’t you think? It was the rationale used by the right in every American intervention during the Cold War. The left mocked any notion of Russian expansionism at the time as childish and an excuse for imperialism.

  What say ye now, Joe Biden?

  Supplies wouldn’t be short and prices wouldn’t be as high if Biden had continued the policies of Donald Trump that made America virtually energy independent.

  Biden is going to Saudi Arabia later this month, hat in hand, to beg the Kingdom to open the spigot and pump more oil. What’s worse is that Biden refuses to take any responsibility for gas prices spiking. He has blamed everyone else for his failures. This latest idiocy demonstrates a shocking ignorance of basic economics and a childish political effort to evade blame.

  *  *  *

  Support PJ Media’s conservative reporting on Joe Biden’s radical, leftist, “America Last” agenda. Join PI Media VIP to support our conservative journalism and use the promo code AMERICAFIRST to get 25% off VIP membership!

  Tyler Durden
  Sun, 07/03/2022 – 13:40