Today’s News 23rd June 2020

  • Italy Approves New Guidelines For Central Bank Digital Currency
    Italy Approves New Guidelines For Central Bank Digital Currency

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/23/2020 – 02:45

    Central banks around the world are examining the use of digital currencies.

    As of recent, central banks of the U.K., Sweden, Thailand, China, and the US are studying whether there are advantages of the digital form of their fiat money. 

    And the answer is yes, the government and banking elites will seize even more power from the people. 

    Called central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), this “digital fiat” — digital money can be directly sent to people’s bank accounts. It eliminates physical cash – which is the end game for banking elites. 

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    A CBDC gives a government complete control over its currency. This will increase their financial-surveillance over the people. When a bank fails, there will be no bank run, because people can’t withdraw their money from that bank. This means when a financial crisis strikes, it will allow governments to do “bail-ins” where the people, like it or not, will be forced to take a haircut on their deposits to save the failing institution.

    And with that being said, the Executive Committee of the Italian Banking Association recently approved new general guidelines for a CBDC.

    “Italian banks are available to participate in projects and experiments of a digital currency of the European Central Bank, contributing, thanks to the skills acquired in the construction of infrastructures and distributed governance, to speed up the implementation of a European-level initiative in a first nation. Since last year, the ABI has set up a working group dedicated to deepening the aspects related to digital coins and crypto-assets. Hence the 10 considerations shared by the Executive Committee,” the Italian baking association said on its website. 

    Here are the ten criteria for an Italian CBDC: 

    1. Monetary stability and full compliance with the European regulatory framework must be preserved as a matter of priority. 
    2. Italian banks are already operating on a Distributed ledger technology DLT infrastructure with the Spunta project. They are intended to be part of the change brought about by an important innovation such as digital coins.
    3. A programmable digital currency represents an innovation in the financial field capable of profoundly revolutionizing money and exchange. This is a transformation capable of bringing significant potential added value, particularly in terms of the efficiency of the operating and management processes. Hence the importance of dedicating attention and energy to develop, quickly and with the collaboration of all the ecosystem players, useful tools first of all for the development of the Euro area.
    4. Digital money needs to be fully trusted by citizens. To this end, it is essential that the highest standards of regulatory compliance, safety and supervision are adhered to.
    5. In particular, a Central Bank Digital Currency, thanks to the central role played by the Central Bank, represents the tool that more than any other can reconcile the needs of innovation, in line with the current reference framework of rules, existing instruments and interoperability with the analog world. The existence of such an instrument could at the same time reduce the attractiveness of instruments of comparable use but issued by private individuals or (in cases of complete decentralization) which cannot be identified, characterized by an intrinsically higher risk profile.
    6. With the aim of fully explaining the transformative potential of these instruments, the possibility, at the moment of study, of issuing a European CBDC intended for the public, which could represent an evolution of cash, is of particular interest. Thanks to the role of the banks, it is possible to identify technical solutions and reference models to preserve the current characteristics of cash, while introducing many benefits of the digital world (already proper to electronic payment instruments), such as the possibility of not losing the own money and, in this period of strong attention to health risk, to operate in contactless mode.
    7. Detailed work will lead to the identification of the distribution, conservation and exchange model of digital currencies that best fits the customer’s service needs, to maintain the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanisms and regulatory compliance. Of course, in each of these objectives, the role of banks is crucial.
    8. Achieving high ease of use, while ensuring full interoperability between the digital and analog world and a total level of circularity between all the players in the ecosystem, represents a success factor in the diffusion of these tools.
    9. Particular attention must be paid, according to the technological choices that will be adopted, to the citizens’ personal data protection profiles. 
    10. Projecting these reflections into the future, it is possible to affirm that the availability of a CBDC will enable a series of use cases of great interest: to favor the transmission of value between peers, thus also facilitating the logic of exchange between person and machine and between machine and machine; allow the settlement of cross-border peer-to-peer transactions, mitigating the interest rate, exchange rate and counterparty risk; Promote, thanks to the programmability characteristic of these currencies, the execution of exchanges upon the occurrence of predefined conditions, ultimately reducing administrative processes.

    A post-corona world has given the financial elites a window of opportunity to begin the implementation of transitioning economies into a universal cashless system: 

    It appears the end of physical cash is ahead. 

  • When Everyone Kneels, Who Will Stand Up For Western History And Culture?
    When Everyone Kneels, Who Will Stand Up For Western History And Culture?

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/23/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Giulio Meotti via The Gatestone Institute,

    “Antiracism is no longer the defense of the equal dignity of people, but an ideology, a vision of the world,” said the French philosopher Alain Finkielkraut, son of Holocaust survivors.

    “Antiracism has been transformed… At the time of the great migration, it is no longer a question of welcoming newcomers by integrating them into European civilization, but exposing the faults of this civilization”.

    He referred to “self-racism” as “the most dismaying and grotesque pathology of our time”.

    Its capital is London.

    Topple the racists” consists of a map with 60 statues in 30 British cities. The removal of the statues is being requested to support a movement born in the United States after a white policeman, Derek Chauvin, killed a black man, George Floyd, by kneeling on his neck.

    In Bristol, a crowd pushed the statue of philanthropist and slave-owner Edward Colston into the harbor. The act was followed in London by protests vandalizing statues of Winston Churchill, Mahatma Gandhi and Abraham Lincoln. London’s Mayor Sadiq Khan, after removing the monument to Robert Milligan, a Scottish slave trader, from outside the Museum of London Docklands, announced the creation of commission to review tearing down statues that do not reflect “the city’s diversity”. Two more statues were ordered to be removed from two London hospitals.

    Vandalism and self-hatred are quickly gaining ground. The epic of great discoveries associated with British Empire has become shameful. The protests are not about slavery. No one in the UK today would cheer that period. It is rather a call for cultural cleansing of all the works contradicting the new mantra: “diversity”.

    “A new form of Taliban was born in the UK today”wrote Nigel Farage, referring to two giant ancient Buddha statue that were blown up by the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001.

    “Unless we get moral leadership quickly our cities won’t be worth living in”.

    The list of statues to be removed includes the names of Oliver Cromwell and Horatio Nelson, two major figures in British history, as well as Nancy Astor, the first woman to be elected to the British Parliament and take a seat in 1919. Also on the list were the names of Sir Francis Drake, Christopher Columbus and Charles Gray (the prime minister whose government supervised the abolition of slavery in 1833).

    British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, expressing opposition to the removal campaign, said:

    We cannot now try to edit or censor our past. We cannot pretend to have a different history. The statues in our cities and towns were put up by previous generations. They had different perspectives, different understandings of right and wrong. But those statues teach us about our past, with all its faults. To tear them down would be to lie about our history, and impoverish the education of generations to come.”

    British post-colonial guilt is, however, having repercussions far larger than statues. There is, for instance, still total silence about persecuted Christians, according to a UK bishop leading a government review into their suffering. There is also, notably, a retreat from the world’s stage.

    “When the West loses confidence in itself, because of excessive or misplaced guilt over colonialism, it turns to isolationism”, noted Bruce Gilley, a professor of political science.

    “We are afraid that anything we do is colonial. There’s plenty of countries willing to step into that global governance gap: China, Iran, Russia, Turkey”.

    Post-colonial guilt is also suffocating freedom of speech in the UK. The former British “equality watchdog” chief, Trevor Phillips, was suspended from the Labour Party after allegations of “Islamophobia”. Phillips’ guilt? Being critical of multiculturalism. According to Phillips:

    “In my view, squeamishness about addressing diversity and its discontents risks allowing our country to sleepwalk to a catastrophe that will set community against community, endorse sexist aggression, suppress freedom of expression, reverse hard-won civil liberties, and undermine the liberal democracy that has served this country so well for so long.”

    Phillips also claimed that British politicians and journalists are “terrified” of discussing race, thereby leaving multiculturalism to become a “racket” exploited by some to entrench segregation. A man of Guyanese origin, a Labour Party veteran and an equality commissioner spoke the truth to the multiculturalists.

    The activists who campaign to remove the statues want radically to change the look of the British capital. The clash seems to consist of, on one side, violent censors who bully everyone, and on the other side, cowardly, appeasing politicians, who are afraid and bow to the vandals. Monuments are a vital and visible part of a global city; they embody their place in the history of a city, otherwise only bus stops and Burger Kings would remain there. These protestors appear to wish for a revised, sanitized history. If we do not quickly understand that, if we erase our past, as the former Soviet Union tried to do, it will be easier for people to create their vision of our future with no rudder to anchor us or our values. We will be left with nothing in our hands but shattered pieces of our history and culture.

    This movement of hating the West — which has, as all of us do, an imperfect history — seems to have begun in British universities. In Cambridge, professors of literature asked to replace white authors with representatives from minorities to “decolonize” the curriculum. The student union of London’s prestigious School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) asked to remove Plato, Kant, Descartes, Hegel and others from the curriculum, because they were “all white” — as if the color of our skin should be the sole determinant of our thoughts. In Manchester, students painted over a mural based on Kipling’s poem “If”.

    A scholar of colonialism, Nigel Biggar, said that a “climate of fear” has returned to British universities. The University of Liverpool recently agreed to rename a building honoring former prime minister William Gladstone. At Oxford, meanwhile, the statue of Cecil Rhodes, philanthropist and founder of Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe), risks being the next to go.

    “There is a bit of hypocrisy,” Lord Patten, the chancellor of Oxford, commented, “in Oxford taking money for 100 scholars a year, about a fifth of them from Africa, to come to Oxford, and then saying we want to throw the Rhodes statue… in the Thames”.

    He said that his own view remained the same as one “expressed by Nelson Mandela at a celebration of the Rhodes Trust in 2003”: that despite the “problems associated with Cecil Rhodes in history, if it was alright for Mandela, then I have to say it’s pretty well alright for me”. But not for the revisionists.

    Western history is seemingly being remade to portray all of Western civilization as just one big apartheid. It is as if we should not only pull down statues but also pull down ourselves. But a successful democracy, cannot be built on just erasing the past.

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    The statue in London of Churchill — who stood against the Nazis during the Second World War and saved Europe from barbarism — was covered up by the city authorities during recent protests. Its visual erasure reminds one of the nude statues in Rome covered up by authorities to please Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, or the “disappearance” of portraits in the former Soviet Union, of people whom the Politburo decided had fallen out of favor. There is a falsity in erasing one’s history. One may not have a perfect history, but it is one’s history, nevertheless. As the historian Victor Davis Hanson wrote, a country “does not have to be perfect to be good.” Excising the distasteful parts does not change what happened; they may even be replaced with parts that are more distasteful.

    Some London museums already adopted this covering-up and self-censorship a while ago. The Tate Gallery in London banned a work by John Latham that displayed a Koran embedded in glass. The Victoria and Albert Museum showed, then withdrew, a devotional art image of Muhammad. The Saatchi Gallery featured two works of nudes overlaid with Arabic script, which prompted complaints from Muslim visitors; the museum covered the works. The Whitechapel Art Gallery purged an exhibit containing nude dolls.

    The Merriam-Webster dictionary just revised the definition of “racism” to include “systemic racism”, presumably meaning that the entire society is guilty and unjust.

    The censors seem to want to control our mental universe, as in George Orwell’s novel, 1984:

    “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right”.

    This process of Western self-abasement began long ago. The Labour Party councils in the UK, for example, began to examine all the statues under their jurisdiction. The mayor of Bristol, Marvin Rees, instead of defending the rule of law, called the violent removal of the statue of Colston an act of “historical poetry“. When vandals started to destroy statues, many applauded. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson called it “politically correct iconoclasm“.

    A week before the statues row, people in the UK knelt in the name of George Floyd. It was as if there was a collective claim that Western society as a whole had to repent. It seemed a form of ideological hysteria, not so distant from that of the Inquisition or the Salem Witch Trials: those who knelt were presumably supposed appear as if they were more moral, on the “right side” of justice. There were even British policemen kneeling, as, in the US, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats knelt to their overlords. Both were acts of irresponsibility and capitulation. A few days later, the British establishment kowtowed to the new Taliban.

    What is this macabre ideological game aimed at accomplishing? Not taking down monuments as such, like the statues of Christopher Columbus which have been torn down or beheaded. It is more than that. It is a power-grab to create a cultural revolution, to prevent anyone from saying that cultures are not all the same; to put Europe’s past on trial; to instill perennial remorse into consciences, and to spread intellectual terror to advance multiculturalism.

    How many people will refuse to go along with this coerced suppression of history? If many kneel to this new totalitarianism, who will have the courage to stand up for Western history and culture?

  • Is This The Lowest Point In Modern US History?
    Is This The Lowest Point In Modern US History?

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/23/2020 – 00:10

    Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

    Things have certainly gotten really crazy here in 2020.  First we witnessed the eruption of the worst global pandemic in 100 years, then the U.S. economy started collapsing, and then we watched major U.S. cities burn from coast to coast as rioting and looting spiraled out of control.  Everywhere you look, people are very angry and deeply frustrated, nearly 46 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits over the past few months, and fear of COVID-19 continues to paralyze our society to a frightening extent.  But can this really be called the lowest point in modern U.S. history? 

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    According to one recent survey, a whopping 72 percent of all Americans actually believe that this “is the lowest point in the country’s history that they’ve ever been alive to see”

    Across two polls, more than 5,000 adult U.S. residents were recently surveyed on the state of America right now. A staggering 83% say that worrying about the future of the United States is a big source of personal stress. Also, 72% believe this is the lowest point in the country’s history that they’ve ever been alive to see.

    That appears to be quite a consensus.

    Of course many of those that were alive during the Great Depression of the 1930s and the early days of World War II would strongly argue that what we are experiencing today is nothing compared to what they had to deal with.

    And without a doubt, the twelve years from 1968 to 1980 were not easy years by any stretch of the imagination.  Just like now, Americans of that era were facing great civil unrest, tremendous economic problems, major political shaking and a global pandemic that killed a lot of people.  If you don’t know about that pandemic, just Google “the flu pandemic of 1968”.

    Having said all that, there is definitely a case to be made for 2020.  Not even during the Great Depression did we ever see the kind of apocalyptic spike in unemployment that we have witnessed this year.  Even though nearly 46 million Americans have already filed for unemployment benefits since the COVID-19 pandemic began, big firms continue to lay off thousands upon thousands of workers.  On top of that, more than 100,000 businesses have already permanently closed their doors, and Americans have already skipped payments on more than 100 million loans.

    And as I explained the other day, the most severe pain from this economic downturn won’t even begin to hit us until about six weeks from now.

    As emergency government assistance starts to fade, an increasing number of Americans will have a very difficult time keeping up with paying the bills.  In fact, another new survey has found that about half of all homeowners are “worried about making future mortgage payments”

    New research offers a glimpse into struggling households, discovers out of the 2,000 American homeowners polled, over half (52%) of respondents say they’re routinely worried about making future mortgage payments and nearly half (47%) considered selling their home because of the inability to service mortgage payments.

    The study, conducted by OnePoll and the National Association of Realtors, determined 81% of respondents had experienced unexpected financial stress due to the virus-induced recession. Over half (56%) reduced spending so they could service mortgage payments.

    Meanwhile, fear of COVID-19 is going to continue to paralyze our society for the foreseeable future.

    I don’t know if you have taken a look at the numbers lately, but the truth is that the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. is starting to surge again.  For the planet as a whole, Friday was the worst day of the pandemic so far by a very wide margin, and that means that this crisis is a long, long way from over.

    There are already whispers that there may be new lockdowns here in the United States.  I seriously hope that does not happen, because that would be another crippling blow for our collapsing economy, and the virus just continued to spread during the first round of lockdowns anyway.

    On top of everything else, more rioting, looting and violence could erupt at literally any moment.  Since this is an election year, tensions are going to be running even higher than usual, and even a relatively minor spark could cause another round of major civil unrest.

    But as bad as things are right now, what most people don’t understand is that this is just the beginning.

    As I have warned so many times before, we have entered a time when we are going to be facing one crisis after another, and this is going to be true no matter what happens during the election in November.

    We have reached a moment in history when all of the cycles are ending, all of the bubbles are bursting, and we are going to experience the consequences of all the very foolish decisions that we have been making for decades.

    At this point, the immediate outlook is so bleak that it is turning all sorts of people into raging pessimists.  For example, Wolf Richter just posted an article in which he explained why he just shorted the entire stock market

    I’m sharing this trade so that everyone gets to ridicule me and hail me as a moron and have fun at my expense in the comments for weeks and months every time the market goes up. And I do not recommend shorting this market; it’s nuts. But here’s why I did.

    The stock market had just gone through what was termed the “greatest 50-day rally in history.” The S&P 500 index had skyrocketed 47% from the intraday low on March 23 (2,192) to the close on June 8 (3,232). It was a blistering phenomenal rally. Since June 8, the market has gotten off track but not by much. It’s still a phenomenal rally. And it came during the worst economy in my lifetime.

    I know that a lot of people will criticize him for making such a move, but I applaud him for his bravery.

    Even if his timing turns out to be a bit early, I certainly concur with him that this latest Fed-fueled bubble will inevitably burst.

    But ultimately we are going to be facing problems that are much more severe than a stock market crash.  In fact, a market crash will be among the least of our problems.

    Because it isn’t just our economy that is collapsing.

    Our entire society is in the process of imploding, and if you don’t like 2020, then you really aren’t going to like what is going to happen in 2021 and beyond.

  • Behind Bars: America's Biggest Coronavirus Clusters
    Behind Bars: America’s Biggest Coronavirus Clusters

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 23:50

    Out of America’s eight biggest coronavirus outreaks, Statista’s Niall McCarthy reports that seven are in jails or correctional facilities.

    That’s according to a list from the New York Times which shows that the biggest national cluster is in the Marion Correctional Institution in Ohio which has 2,439 cases as of June 16, 2020. Another facility in Ohio, the Pickaway Correctional Institution, has 1,791. The third largest cluster was identified in the Trousdale Turner Correctional Center in Hartsville, Tennessee.

    Infographic: Behind Bars: America's Biggest Coronavirus Clusters | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Even though prisons account for the largest outbreaks in the U.S. with deaths within their walls increasing 73 percent in the past month alone, the vast majority of outbreaks have occurred in U.S. nursing homes and long-term care facilities. The toll on inmates has still been heavy, however, with 600 estimated to have died during the pandemic so far.

  • Schlichter: The Elites Are Revolting
    Schlichter: The Elites Are Revolting

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Kurt Schlichter via Townhall.com,

    Our Establishment is revolting – in fact, it stinks on ice. What you see out there is our alleged betters struggling mightily to hold onto the power that we Normal people dared to wrest away from them in 2016. One component of their campaign is the burning and looting information operation conducted by black-clad pawns. The other component is the soft power corporate/media/cultural conspiracy to silence dissent and enforce fearful conformity to their narrative. Usually, a revolution is conducted by the peasants to throw off a tyrannical ruling class. Here, the ruling class is waging a political and cultural war to retake and then tighten its grip on the masses. They are no longer even pretending to seek the consent of the governed. And once they retake power, that’s it – they will never give up power again. 

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    This is about casting off the “tyranny” of you having rights and interests that get in the way of the best and the brightest doing whatever the hell they want, a continuing theme in my new book The 21 Biggest Lies about Donald Trump (and You!). And a key component of this cynical plot is systematically denying you the protection of norms and laws, all while subjecting you to them where it benefits the elite.

    Let’s review.

    Remember free speech? That was fun while it lasted. Oh, it still exists, to the extent that you may speak freely as long as your free speech conforms to the Establishment narrative. Do you feel like you can say whatever you think freely and without restraint? Or do you experience a twinge of fear of the consequences if you get online and state that no, you do not support the Marxist goals of Black Lives Matter? If so, their plan is working. You are supposed to be afraid and intimidated – and while the endless list of people cancelled, abused, and fired from jobs because they refused to kowtow to the mob serves to outrage us, it also serves to teach us that there is a fearsome price to be paid for failing to go along and cheer the Emperor’s new duds.

    Remember the big lie that Trump is the great destroyer of norms? What about the norm of free speech? Not the First Amendment – that’s a constitutional guarantee. It’s the norm, the general consensus that people will not be punished for their views even outside the law, that’s dead, and not at the hand of The Donald.

    Maybe you can appeal for support to the neutral truthtellers of the media, the brave firefighters who ensure the little guy gets a fair shake. Nah. Our garbage media is dedicated to reinforcing the status quo – instead of comforting the afflicted and afflicting the comfortable, it afflicts the afflicted and sucks up to the comfortable.

    Hey, maybe academia will stand up for truth, justice, and equality. And maybe you just took an enormous bong hit.

    Ok then, the objective science people of science will tell us the truth because science is important and science is scientific and they surely would never get involved in politics. Except they lie about global warming, and about masks, and they give a free pass to woke protests while scolding those gnarly (and probably racist) Ozark proles about how their pool party will become an orgy of death. Never mind that a month on, there’s still no pile of pangolin flu corpses to point at.

    Well, at least our military remains above the fray. Oops. In an era when our Navy ships can’t keep from running into other boats and turbaned banditos continue to roam freely through the Hindu Kush after two decades, we see the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs appear on video to apologize for appearing in public with the guy we elected his commander-in-chief. The military cannot be political, the guys who can’t win a war tell us, as they become super-political. The ChiComs, who have a serious military unlike our shamefully frivolous one, would be wise to time their inevitable devastating sneak attack for when our armed forces are on a three-day diversity training stand-down. If only our armed forces had a recent track record of victory to match its track record of wokeness.

    How about our police? We’ve seen some signs of push-back, like in Atlanta, but if they won’t even protect their station house from the woke mobs, are they going to protect your house? And don’t think some are not eager to join in the petty oppression – how many cops obediently hassled mommies for letting their kids play outside during the pandemic panic?

    And don’t think you can rely on constitutional guarantees. You can have guarantees all day long and they don’t mean a thing unless they are enforced by the courts. Do you see the courts enforcing your rights? Look at Chief Justice John Souter – I mean Roberts – and his antics. Yeah sure. DACA is one (preferred) president creating a law via decree that overrides an actual law – you know, one of those “I’m Just a Bill” laws – but it can’t be undone by a subsequent (non-preferred) president. Huh? 

    Oh, and remember your right to worship? You might think that a right to practice your religion means some bureaucrat can’t ban church while clapping like a trained seal as thousands of woke protestors mix n’ mingle, but no. According to Souter II, the First Amendment doesn’t make your silly Jesus hootenannys special, even though it expressly does. Why, your church can be treated just like a movie theater or bowling alley – that is, much worse than, say, massive political donor Walmart.

    What are the chances that the Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice Grown-In-Office, would again construe the Second Amendment’s admonition that the right to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed to mean the right to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed? We should be glad that the Supreme Court hasn’t taken up a gun case in a decade. 

    And forget equal justice under criminal law. It’s dual justice. Felonia Milhous von Pantsuit commits crimes that would get you locked up but she gets a pass. McCabe, Brennan, Clapper, Comey and the rest lie and walk free, while Mike Flynn commits no crime and has to fight the power to even get a dismissal of a plea obtained by the rankest prosecutorial misconduct. Rioters and criminals get released with a wave and a smile; cops get threatened with death row for fighting back when a career criminal tries to taser them. It’s all a lie and a scam.

    This is all part and parcel of a strategy to strip us of any kind of refuge or recourse from abuse. We cannot look to the marketplace of ideas to make our case because our case has been declared verboten. The institutions are arrayed against us. The law means nothing because it will not be enforced neutrally. So why again do we consider ourselves bound by the social contract the establishment has been using like Charmin?

    What we are seeing is the elite’s ruthless pursuit of the power we stripped them of back in 2016 when we made the Hillary fans cry. And since then, despite it all, we have made progress – some good judges, no more wars, trade realism with China. But this is intolerable to the leftist Establishment.

    We the People must be overthrown. Now the question is whether We the People are going to let that happen.

  • April Pot Sales Grew Like A Weed During Lockdowns
    April Pot Sales Grew Like A Weed During Lockdowns

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 23:10

    The rise in cannabis demand in March was not just an anomaly but continued into April. It appears Americans were getting high during lockdowns to cope with pandemic stress. 

    Bloomberg, citing data from BDS Analytics, said cannabis sales erupted in April as dispensaries in many legal states were declared essential businesses. 

    On a year-over-year basis, April pot sales in Maryland doubled, sales in Arizona rose 49%, Oregon saw +40%, Colorado +8%, and California +4%. However, Nevada reported a 30% decline for the month due to a collapse in the travel and tourism industry, or mainly because Vegas was closed. 

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    h/t Bloomberg 

     BDS data also showed sales on April 20 (4/20, also known as a marijuana holiday) were not stellar when compared to last year. 

    “Overall, 4/20 sales in California, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington fell 22% from 2019, according to data from Headset Inc. That may be at least partly because the celebration fell on a Monday this year and a Saturday last year,” Bloomberg said. 

    At the beginning of the lockdown, we noted how Americans were panic hoarding pot, long lines outside of dispensaries were spotted across the country. 

    The pot industry appeared to be booming during lockdowns, though ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) has plunged by at least 65% in the last year. No love for pot stocks? 

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    With the economy in the dumps, tens of millions unemployed, and a pandemic still ragingAmericans are heavily medicating themselves with pot. 

  • Stanford Prof: Median Infection Fatality Rate Of COVID-19 For Those Under-70 Is Just 0.04%
    Stanford Prof: Median Infection Fatality Rate Of COVID-19 For Those Under-70 Is Just 0.04%

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 22:50

    Authored by Daniel Payne via JustTheNews.com,

    A scientist known for his contrarian takes to dire COVID-19 predictions has released a paper claiming that antibody evidence suggests the median coronavirus infection fatality rate for those under 70 is just 0.04%. 

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    The estimate throws into sharp relief the lopsided mortality figures for the disease, which has claimed an inordinate number of elderly people across the planet while leaving younger individuals mostly unscathed. 

    John Ioannidis, a professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University, argues in a paper published earlier this month that COVID-19 “seroprevalence studies,” which measure infection rates using the presence of antibodies in blood samples, “typically show a much lower fatality than initially speculated in the earlier days of the pandemic.”

    “It should be appreciated,” he writes in the paper, “that [the fatality rate] is not a fixed physical constant and it can vary substantially across locations, depending on the population structure, the case-mix of infected and deceased individuals and other, local factors.

    In the paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, Ioannidis surveyed 23 different seroprevalence studies and found that “among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from … 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%." 

    The median fatality rate of all cases, he writes, is 0.26%, significantly lower than some earlier estimates that suggested rates as high as over 3%. 

    In the paper, Ioannidis acknowledges that “while COVID-19 is a formidable threat,” the apparently low fatality rate compared to earlier estimates “is a welcome piece of evidence.”

    “Decision-makers can use measures that will try to avert having the virus infect people and settings who are at high risk of severe outcomes,” he writes. 

    “These measures may be possible to be far more precise and tailored to specific high- risk individuals and settings than blind lockdown of the entire society.”

  • Which States Are Removing The Most Confederate Monuments?
    Which States Are Removing The Most Confederate Monuments?

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 22:30

    The killing of George Floyd has sparked a resurgence in the removal of Confederate monuments to prominent slave-owning Democrats throughout US history.

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    Greg Rones/Shutterstock. Graphic: Nathaniel Blum

    In recent weeks, Virginia, Florida and Texas top the states which have removed the most Confederate symbols, according to an analysis by BeenVerified.

    For every monument which has been removed, approximately 10 remain according to the study. Meanwhile, West Virginia, South Carolina and Mississippi are the top three states in which the least Confederate monuments have been removed.

    Top takeaways via BeenVerified:

    • States that have the largest percentage of remaining symbols: West Virginia (100%), South Carolina (99%), Mississippi (99%) and Arkansas (96%), followed by Georgia, North Carolina and Alabama (95% each).
    • Maryland and California have the top percentage of removals: Out of states that had at least 10 Confederate symbols, Maryland has removed 70%, followed by California (50%), Florida and Oklahoma (22% each), Missouri and the District of Columbia (17% each).
    • States with the most remaining symbols: Virginia (244), Texas (207), Georgia (199), South Carolina (194), North Carolina (169), Mississippi (147), Alabama (125), Tennessee (99), Louisiana (84) and Florida (67).
    • For every removal, 10 monuments and symbols remain: In total, states have removed 172 Confederate symbols over the years; but 1,712 still remain, our analysis shows.
    • Most removed since 2013: States that have removed the most monuments and symbols since 2013 are: Texas (39), Virginia (30), Florida (17), Tennessee (10) and Georgia (7).
    • Most removed in wake of George Floyd protests: Virginia (12), Texas and Florida (5 each) Alabama (4), Georgia and Kentucky (2). (Some planned removals in Virginia, however, are being challenged in court.)
    • Not just located in the South: While the greatest concentration of symbols remain in former Confederate states and Border States, many exist in Northern states and new states formed after the Civil War, including: California and Ohio (5 each), New York and Pennsylvania (3 each); Washington, Idaho and Montana (2 each).
    • Who they honor: Robert E. Lee, Jefferson Davis and Thomas Jonathan “Stonewall” Jackson are the top Confederates with statues, roads and schools in their name; Nathan Bedford Forrest, the Confederate general who was the first Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan, has the sixth most number of monuments.

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    There are still 1,712 Confederate monuments and symbols in public which remain – which include statues, school names, roads, military bases, buildings, parks, monuments and other public designations honoring Democratic heroes.

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    BeenVerified also analyzed Confederate symbol removal by year, with senior data analyst Brian Ross noting “The Confederate symbol removal gained traction after the 2015 Charleston, South Carolina, church shootings, which ignited a nationwide debate on these symbols and their prominence in public spaces,” adding “But after peaking in 2017, the trend has been on a decline—until the death of George Floyd.

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    The overwhelming majority of Confederate symbols across the country are dedicated to Robert E. Lee, Jefferson Davis and Thomas Jonathan “Stonewall” Jackson.

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    Will Rick Wilson’s cooler be next?

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  • Right Now There Is A "Mad Rush" To Get Out Of The Cities
    Right Now There Is A “Mad Rush” To Get Out Of The Cities

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 22:10

    Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

    So many wealthy people are rushing to move away from the big cities that it is creating a bit of a “real estate boom” in many suburban areas, small towns and rural communities.  Fear of COVID-19, a collapsing economy and the tremendous urban violence that we have witnessed in recent weeks have combined to create a frenzy of activity.  Last week, my wife and I heard from a friend in New York City that is all of a sudden desperate to move to another state, and I certainly can’t blame him for wanting to relocate.  If I was in his shoes, I would be wanting to move too.  But at this point so many people are all thinking the same thing that the demand for housing in certain areas threatens to greatly exceed the supply. 

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    In fact, one real estate agent in the San Francisco area is describing it as “a mad rush to get out of the city”

    “There’s a mad rush to get out of the city,” said Ginger Martin, a real estate agent with Sotheby’s who concentrates on high-end properties in the San Francisco Bay Area. “What I’m really doing well with right now is anything that’s turnkey.”

    Unfortunately, mortgage lending standards have really tightened up over the past few months, and so this is limiting the number of people that are able to successfully relocate.

    Mostly, in this environment it is just “wealthy folks” that are able to move away from San Francisco and purchase a new home somewhere else…

    Relocation, at the moment, is only by wealthy folks, who still have the financial mobility to move as the real economy implodes and paralyzes the bottom 90% of Americans. Even with a good credit score, lenders are not preapproving folks like they once were. Many people over the years flooded into San Francisco as the economy boomed, and tech flourished. Now with an economic downturn, social unrest, and pandemic — the city is becoming too dangerous to raise a family.

    Over on the east coast, violence is one of the primary motivating factors that is causing people to suddenly pick up and move.

    By now, virtually everyone has seen stunning footage of the rioting and looting that took place in the heart of New York City, and it certainly wouldn’t take much to spark more episodes of widespread violence.

    At the same time, overall crime rates in NYC have been absolutely skyrocketing, and this is helping to fuel an exodus to “rural communities in New York and New Jersey”…

    During May, overall crime declined compared to the same period last year. But the New York City Police Department (NYPD) said murders in the city increase by 79%, shootings jumped by 64%, and burglaries rose 34%.

    The surge in violent crime is expected to supercharge a trend of New Yorkers fleeing the metro for rural communities in New York and New Jersey.

    In the middle of the country, the city of Chicago is experiencing even more violence than New York City is.

    In fact, dozens of people were just shot over Father’s Day weekend

    Nine people have been killed, including four under the age of 18, and 47 more were injured in shootings across Chicago on Father’s Day weekend, police said.

    Two teenage boys, a 3-year-old, and a 13-year-old girl are among those who were killed, officials told ABC7 in Chicago.

    And just a few weeks ago, we witnessed the most violent day ever recorded in the Windy City

    While Chicago was roiled by another day of protests and looting in the wake of George Floyd’s murder, 18 people were killed Sunday, May 31, making it the single most violent day in Chicago in six decades, according to the University of Chicago Crime Lab. The lab’s data doesn’t go back further than 1961.

    If the problems that we are facing were just very temporary in nature, most people would probably be willing to ride them out.

    Unfortunately, it appears that things aren’t going to be getting significantly better any time soon.

    Now that the lockdowns have ended, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is starting to surge once again.  On Friday, we witnessed more than 30,000 newly confirmed cases in the U.S. for the first time in many weeks, and it was actually the worst day so far for newly confirmed cases for the globe as a whole.

    In other words, the coronavirus pandemic is getting worse.  Whether you want to call it “the first wave” or “the second wave”, the truth is that cases are surging and that could have very serious implications for the months ahead.

    Meanwhile, the U.S. economy continues to deteriorate very rapidly.  Nearly 46 million Americans have now filed new claims for unemployment benefits since this pandemic first began, more than 100,000 businesses have permanently shut their doors, and U.S. consumers have skipped payments on more than 100 million loans.  It is an economic meltdown of unprecedented size and scope, and many more months of extreme economic pain lie ahead of us.

    On top of everything else, we are in an election year, and even a very small spark could set off more rioting, looting and violence.

    At this point, tensions are so high in this country that a recent survey found that 34 percent of all Americans believe that there could be a “civil war” within the next five years

    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 34% of Likely U.S. Voters think the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years, but that includes only nine percent (9%) who say it’s Very Likely.

    I have never seen our nation so deeply divided in my entire lifetime, and that makes me incredibly sad.

    At a time when we should be coming together like never before, we are allowing strife, discord, anger and hatred to divide us even more deeply.

    A house that is divided will surely fall, and the future of America looks extremely bleak if we continue down this path.

    As one lone individual, there isn’t much that you can do to stop what is coming, but at least you can try to get to somewhere safe before everything falls apart.

    But if you are going to move, you will need to do it quickly, because as I have discussed in this article there are lots of other people thinking the exact same thing.

  • Dust-pocalypse Blankets Caribbean, Storm Nears Southern US
    Dust-pocalypse Blankets Caribbean, Storm Nears Southern US

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 21:50

    A massive dust storm from the Sahara desert in Northern Africa traversed above the tropical Atlantic Ocean and is causing havoc in the Caribbean region, is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico and Southern US later this week, reported The Weather Channel.

    The plume of dust originated from the deserts of Western Africa last weekend and has now traveled more than 3,000 miles across the Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean Sea.

    Before and after pictures show the dust-apocalypse unfolding across parts of the Caribbean. 

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    Before & After St. Barthelemy on Sunday. h/t Mark Sudduth

    Astronaut Doug Hurley tweeted a picture of the massive dust storm from low Earth orbit. He said, “We flew over this Saharan dust plume today in the west-central Atlantic. Amazing how large an area it covers!” 

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    NOAA’s GOES satellite captured a stunning short clip on Friday of the dust storm over the Atlantic. 

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    Here’s another view of the dust storm, still intact during most of the trans-Atlantic journey, entering the Caribbean on Sunday.

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    More before and after photos recently taken on Caribbean islands like Antigua, Puerto Rico, and Trinidad: 

    “Here is an amazing comparison with a near perfect day to today. Looking east over the #VCBirdAirport, #Antigua towards the Atlantic. You can barely see beyond 3 miles,” tweeted 268Weather. 

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    h/t 268Weather

    Saharan dust leaving poor visibility in San Juan, Peurto Rico on Monday. 

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    Dust storm in Trinidad.

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    h/t Kedi_shaaa

    The dust particles are expected to reach Texas and the rest of the Southern US by late week, creating hazy skies and potentially dangerous air to breathe. 

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    First pandemic, then economic crash, morphing into social unrest, and now a massive dust storm? 

    Is America ready for the dust-apocalypse later this week? 

  • Chinese Gold Miners Continue To Gobble Up Gold Companies
    Chinese Gold Miners Continue To Gobble Up Gold Companies

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 21:30

    Authored by Lawrence Thomas via GoldTelegraph.com,

    Chinese gold companies continue to pursue and acquire mining companies aggressively. 

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    The Buyouts: 

    • Continental Gold Inc. was acquired for C$1.3 billion in early March by Zijin Mining Group Co. The company’s asset, the Buriticá Project, is the most advanced underground gold mining operation in Colombia. Buriticá is one of the world’s largest high-grade gold projects, with production scheduled to begin in 2020. Mineral reserves are estimated to be 3.7 million ounces of gold with 8.4 g/t of gold (13.7 million tons).
    • TMAC Resources entered into an agreement in early May with one of China’s biggest gold producers, Shandong Gold Mining, to sell the company for C$230 million. TMAC’s Hope Bay Property is a high-grade gold district with established Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources totaling approximately 5.17 million ounces of gold at an average grade of 7.4 g/t Au and Inferred Mineral Resources totaling approximately 2.13 million ounces of gold at an average grade of 6.1 g/t Au. However, the Canadian government is currently reviewing the buyout as Shandong Gold Mining Co. Ltd. is a Chinese state-owned enterprise.
    • Guyana Goldfields was acquired by Zijin Mining Group for C$323 million on June 12th.. Zijin won the bidding war as it valued the company 35% higher than the previously accepted offer from Silvercorp Metals. Guyana Goldfields is a mid-tier gold producer primarily focused on the exploration, development, and operation of gold deposits in Guyana, South America. Its 2019 production guidance was between 145,000 – 160,000 ounces. 
    • Cardinal Resources was acquired by Shandong Gold Mining for A$300-millio on June 18. Cardinals Namdini Project has a Proved and Probable Ore Reserve of 5.1 Moz. 

    It is worth noting; China is already producing the most gold in the world. 

    The recent acquisition spree by Chinese companies should send a signal to the market that the country will be strategically utilizing the precious metal in the future with regards to it being a reserve asset. 

    It was interesting to learn from Zerohedge that Beijing is beginning to sound the alarm about the dollar’s reserve currency status: 

    Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, delivered a strong warning on the U.S. currency last week, which might explain all of the gold mining takeovers.

    He made four points in a speech at the Lujiazhui Forum in Shanghai:

    • The Fed is the de facto central bank of the world. When its policy targets its own economy without considering the spillover effect, the Fed is “very likely to overdraft the credit of the dollar and the U.S.”

    • The pandemic may persist for a long period of time, and countries keep throwing money at the problem with a diminished impact. “It is recommended that you think twice and reserve some policy space for the future.”

    • There is no free lunch. Watch out for inflation.

    • Financial markets are disconnected from the real economy, and such distortions are “unprecedented.” It’s going to be “really painful,” when the policy withdrawal starts.

    Is China preparing to issue a gold-backed currency? Only time will tell, but there have been plenty of rumblings since 2008 of China pushing a gold-backed yuan.

    If more companies continue to be gobbled up by Chinese mining companies, there certainly seems that something strategic is going on behind the scenes. 

  • Markets Immediately Reverse Earlier Plunge After Navarro Walks Back China Comments
    Markets Immediately Reverse Earlier Plunge After Navarro Walks Back China Comments

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 21:26

    Update (1010ET): If ever there was evidence of the farce this so-called market (and perhaps also the Trump administration) has become, it is this.

    Shortly after stocks and the yuan plunged following Peter Navarro using the words “it’s over” when discussing the US-China trade deal, the White House Advisor rapidly backtracked, claiming in a statement that the comment was “taken wildly out of context.”

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    Additionally, Axios reports that the President’s chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow refuted Navarro’s earlier comments:

    The U.S. remains engaged with China over the phase one trade deal signed last January and according to trade negotiator Bob Lighthizer the deal is going well. President Trump has made similar comments just recently.”

    The response was instant spike in stocks…

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    And yuan…

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    And just like that – everyone’s stops were run!

    *  *  *

    Global pandemic, meh, buy stocks!

    Global economic collapse, meh, buy stocks!

    US-China trade deal is over? Sell, Mortimer, Sell!

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    US equity futures and offshore yuan are plunging in early Asia trading after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on Monday the trade deal with China is “over.”

    “It’s over,” Navarro told Fox News in an interview when asked about the trade agreement.

    Reuters reports that Navarros says the “turning point” came when the US learned about the spreading coronavirus only after a Chinese delegation had left Washington following the signing of the Phase 1 deal on Jan. 15.

    “It was at a time when they had already sent hundreds of thousands of people to this country to spread that virus, and it was just minutes after wheels up when that plane took off that we began to hear about this pandemic,” Navarro said.

    This follows various threats of US-China decoupling from the White House, and also an increasing anti-dollar rhetoric from Chinese officials.

    Futures are getting hammered…

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    And Yuan collapsed….

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold is bid…

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    And bond yields plunged…

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    Trump will not be pleased at the market drop – but then again, that’s Powell’s problem now! The question is why now? Which makes us wonder if the Trump admin realizes ‘we, the people’ need a non-domestic enemy to focus on and distract from the unrest at home.

  • Roosevelt Statue To Be Removed From NYC's Museum Of Natural History
    Roosevelt Statue To Be Removed From NYC’s Museum Of Natural History

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 21:15

    A statue of Theodore Roosevelt, the 26th president of the United States, will be removed from the front steps of the American Museum of Natural History in New York City, according to Mayor Bill de Blasio – who said in a Sunday evening statement that the museum made the request.

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    “As we strive to advance our institution’s, our City’s, and our country’s passionate quest for racial justice, we believe that removing the Statue will be a symbol of progress and of our commitment to build and sustain an inclusive and equitable Museum community and broader society,” said museum President Ellen Futter of the bronze statue which has stood at the institution’s Central Park West entrance since 1940.

    The statue features Roosevelt on horseback with a Native American man and an African man who are standing next to the horse. In 2017, it was coated in red liquid by protesters, who called for its removal as a symbol of “patriarchy, white supremacy and settler-colonialism.”

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    Ms. Futter made clear that the museum’s decision was based on the statue itself — namely its “hierarchical composition”—- and not on Roosevelt, whom the museum continues to honor as “a pioneering conservationist.”

    “Simply put,” she added, “the time has come to move it.” –NYT

    According to the NYT, it is unknown when the statue will come down or where it will end up. According to the report, de Blasio says the city supports the museum’s request, and that “It is the right decision and the right time to remove this problematic statue.”

    Teddy Roosevelt, whose face is on Mount Rushmore, served as the governor of New York from 1899 to 1900. During the Spanish-American war he lead the Rough Riders – the United States’ first volunteer cavalry, returning a national hero.

    As president, he expanded the Navy, began construction of the Panama Canal, and won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1906 for brokering the end of the Russo-Japanese war. By the late 1970s he was consistently rated one of the top five best US presidents by the heads of 100 history departments.

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  • Canadian College Exec Apologizes, Resigns After 'Liking' Conservative Tweets
    Canadian College Exec Apologizes, Resigns After ‘Liking’ Conservative Tweets

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 21:10

    The Chair of the University of British Columbia Board of Governors has resigned after a college activist group was triggered by several tweets he “liked.”

    Michael Korenberg was targeted for cancellation by pro-antifa campus activist group, UBC Students Against Bigotry, after he liked tweets from Ann Coulter, Charlie Kirk and Dinesh D’Souza – as well as tweets wishing President Trump a happy birthday, according to True North.

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    One of the ‘liked’ tweets was critical of Black Lives Matter – drawing condemnation from far-left media outlets, as well as UBC staff such as professor Annette Henry, who said Korenberg’s Twitter activity has reflected a “white supremacist capitalist [hetero]patriarchy” worldview, adding that “It’s unfortunate that we have people in such positions of authority at UBC.”

    According to Henry, UBC ‘still keeps hiring white people where we have the opportunity not to.’

    UBS professor Jennifer Berdahl called on Korenberg to resign.

    And now, he has, accompanied by a lengthy apology.

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    “Over the past two weeks some articles/statements that I ‘liked’ on Twitter supported regressive voices and took aim at thousands of brave individuals who are standing up against racism, discrimination and hatred,” wrote Korenberg in a Saturday tweet containing a typed statement.

    “I accept that in liking these social media posts, I damaged what I support and that I hurt people. I wholeheartedly apologize to them, particularly to the students, faculty and staff of UBC…I have stepped down because it is the right thing to do.”

    And as TNC‘s Lindsay Shepherd notes: 

    And that really is all he is resigning for, folks: because he liked some tweets featuring basic, mainstream Republican talking points.

    Korenberg was showing signs, early on, that he was the “apologize and resign” type. He told PressProgress that he regrets liking the tweets, giving the weak excuse that he liked them late at night.

    But for the rest of us, if we are ever targeted by a mob of leftist campus activists and media outlets for something so minuscule as liking conservative-minded tweets, I hope we can muster up some courage and not be the type to “apologize and resign.”True North

    We’re sure the woke mob will forgive his transgressions and he’ll regain his previous stature within academia. Or not.

  • Iran's IRGC To Establish Permanent Military Base In Indian Ocean
    Iran’s IRGC To Establish Permanent Military Base In Indian Ocean

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 20:50

    ViaAlmasdarNews.com,

    The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced its intention to establish a permanent military base in the Indian Ocean by next March, with the aim of providing security in the waters of the Gulf of Oman and the ocean, and protecting fishermen and merchant ships from piracy.

    The commander of the Naval Forces, Ali Reza Tungsiri, said that the Guards have directives from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, to be present on the high seas permanently.

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    Via The National Interest

    In a press statement, Tungsiri said that the Iranian Army and Revolutionary Guards have previously sent fleets to the high seas, stressing that other future fleets will be sent.

    The military official pointed out that Iranian fishermen and merchant ships were exposed to harassment by pirates in the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, stressing that the permanent presence of the guards in those areas would prevent any future attacks.

    “The deployment of the fleet by the IRGC navy to distant waters has been done in the past, and our second fleet was also sent to the waters of the Indian Ocean,” the naval commander said.

    “[Building a permanent marine base will improve] security in the mouth of the Indian Ocean that will also be of great help to the growing presence of Iranian fishing and fishing development in the region,” he added.

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    Meanwhile, Bloomberg mentioned that the Monday comments in Fars News Agency Agency didn’t specify a planned location for the base. Bloomberg also recalled that:

    In April, Guard Corps gunboats approached American ships at close range, prompting President Donald Trump to order the U.S. Navy to open fire in any repeat confrontation. Iran, Russia and China late last year held joint naval drills in the Gulf of Oman and northern Indian Ocean.

    It is also noteworthy to mention that Iran possesses the strategic port of Chabahar on the waters of the Indian Ocean and the Sea of ​​Oman, but its development suffers from difficulties due to the U.S. sanctions on Tehran.

  • China Kicks Off 10 Day Dog Meat Festival
    China Kicks Off 10 Day Dog Meat Festival

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 20:30

    You’d think eating random animals – not to mention pets – in China would be frowned upon at this point. But a little global pandemic hasn’t stopped organizers from kicking off a 10 day dog meat festival, despite pushback from activists and government, according to the South China Morning Post. This despite earlier reports that China would no longer market dogs as livestock.

    The festival is known to attract “thousands of visitors” who buy dogs “for the pot” that are on display. Animal rights activists are trying diligently to get the festival disbanded permanently. 

    Animal rights activist Peter Li said: “I do hope Yulin will change, not only for the sake of the animals but also for the health and safety of its people. Allowing mass gatherings to trade in and consume dog meat in crowded markets and restaurants in the name of a festival poses a significant public health risk.”

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    The article claims that the coronavirus has forced China to “reassess its relationship with animals”, although with an event like, well, a 10 day dog meat festival, it appears to us the country has a lot more reassessing to do. 

    Back in April, Shenzhen banned the consumption of dogs and other provinces are expected to follow suit. The agriculture ministry also decided to classify dogs as pets instead of livestock, SCMP noted. That did not last long.

    Another activist, Zhang Qianqian, said: “From what we understand from our conversations with meat sellers, leaders have said the consumption of dog meat won’t be allowed in future. But banning dog-meat consumption is going to be hard and will take some time.”

  • 22 Market Observations From Goldman's Head Of Hedge Fund Sales
    22 Market Observations From Goldman’s Head Of Hedge Fund Sales

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 20:10

    By Tony Pasquariello, global head of HF Sales at Goldman

    For the financial markets, the period since late February has been a watershed – a genuinely epic sequence of action and reaction.

    In tactical terms, there’s no shortage of stories to recount.  there was the day when S&P closed down … 12% (and, thereafter, the VIX touched 85).  or, the time when the US long bond rallied 40bps … in 24 hours.  and, to be sure, no greatest hits list would be complete without reference to the futures expiry when WTI sold off, ahem, 305%. 

    Jumping off those points, below is a simple layout of 22 line items that stuck out to me over the course of the past several months.

    This sequence wasn’t constructed to represent a cohesive theme or directional bias, but I think we can agree on the following: this period has been epochal.  we’re passing the early chapters.  and, perhaps most importantly, the interplay between the financial markets and policy has been truly enormous and without precedent; the undeniable fact that government has been an overwhelming force in markets is shot through the list below:

    1. 2020 has likely featured the sharpest — but, the shortest — recession in US history (certainly since the 1850s for the US, and since WWII on a global scale).  credit: Jan Hatzius, GIR.  

    2. in turn, we’ve just seen the strongest rally out of a bear market since … 1932credit: Ben Snider, GIR. 

    3. the US alone had conducted $2.3tr of QE in the past three months (Treasuries + mortgages).  for those keeping score at home, that’s an average of around $35bn of bond buying per business day since mid-March.  credit: David Mericle, GIR.  

    4. GIR expects zero interest rates in the US for several more years — until the economy reaches 2% inflation and full employment — which is perhaps not until 2025 (link). 

    5. GIR expects another $1.5tr of US fiscal support to come this summer (link). 

    6. largely thanks to fiscal support, GIR expects US disposable income to grow 4.0% in 2020 (link). 

    7. the US Treasury planned to borrow $3tr in Q2 alone (link); despite that supply glut, we’re just off the all-time low yields in US 2yr notes and 5yr notes.

    8. in that same general context, US 30yr mortgage rates are down to all-time lows (link).

    9. the past six weeks have seen the largest amount of global equity issuance on record, at $205bn (link). 

    10. March saw record outflows from corporate bond funds (-$42bn); we’re now witnessing record inflows to corporate bond funds (+$85bn since the start of April); link

    11. it’s not just that we’re witnessing record new issue in the credit markets, it’s that we’re also seeing record low corporate financing costs (e.g. AMZN raised $10bn of capital at the lowest 3/5/7/10 and 40yr yields ever; link).

    12. March saw record outflows from equity mutual funds and ETFs; one can argue we’re now seeing legitimate signs of retail investor euphoria (e.g. a record # of account openings at US retail brokers; link).

    13. buybacks: GS executed repurchase is down ~ 50% YTD (link).  that said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see AAPL + MSFT + GOOG collectively buy back $75bn this year.

    14. subject to your interpretation: the market cap of MSFT is larger than the entire US High Yield market (link). 

    15. Michele Della Vigna, GIR: “we estimate that clean tech can drive $1-2tr pa of green infrastructure investments and create 15-20mm jobs worldwide, mostly through public-private collaboration, low financing costs and a supportive regulatory framework … renewable power will become the largest area of spending in the energy industry in 2021” (link).

    16. related: ESG funds comprised 31% of all YTD flows to global passive equity funds (link).

    17. randomly found in a comment section on the world wide web: “does not capitalizing the first word in a paragraph make a writer appear to be cool or is it simply that Tony Pasquariello is an idiot.”  I’m not bolding any part of this sentence.

    Finally, these were some of the more striking charts from H1’20:

    18. for better or for worse, this clearly illustrates the top heavy nature of S&P 500 returns YTD (credit to Cole Hunter, GIR):

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    19. despite an absence of available yield, we live in a world of record inflows to money market funds (link).  I find it a little interesting that we’re seeing a tentative inflection lower here:

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    20. an updated chart of the y/y % change in US money supply (credit William Marshall in GIR.  your interpretation of this chart may hinge on whether you’re a first or second derivative kind of person:

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    21. yes, there’s been some significant rotation of late in things like leaders vs laggards.  for example, you can see there was some recent retracement in names were hit hard by the health crisis (see white line below, which is a ratio vs S&P).  that said, note that the stocks most leveraged to the stay-at-home theme continue to outpace most everything else in the market (blue line):

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    22. last but not least, through thick and thin, the big S&P bull trend line still holds:

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  • NYC Sees 400% Jump In Shootings As Undercover Unit Disbanded
    NYC Sees 400% Jump In Shootings As Undercover Unit Disbanded

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 19:50

    As the NYPD disbands its undercover investigations unit, taking hundreds of crime-spotting undercover officers off the streets (a decision that will almost certainly lead to fewer low level arrests, but also leaves an opening for more serious crime to make a comeback), it appears one of the most closely followed crime metrics in NYC has skyrocketed compared with the same period last year.

    According to stats released by the department, the number of shootings reported in NYC over the past week hit 55, compared with just 12 during the same period last year. That’s a nearly 5-fold rise.

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    Commissioner Dermot Shea officially disbanded the plainclothes unit a week ago. The results since then have been startling.

    Meanwhile, the hundreds of “journalists” who live in NYC have been obsessed with a bogus ‘conspiracy theory’ about the surfeit of fireworks heard around the city is part of a ‘conspiracy’ to stop black and brown people from getting enough sleep, in order to fomet more unrest.

    Even Commissioner Shea acknowledges that the rank and file are “demoralized” after weeks of sometimes deadly interactions with protesters and looters and rioters. On Sunday, video of an officer applying a chokehold while detaining a suspect in Rockaway Beach, Queens led to his suspension without pay, further rankling the rank and file after Shea limply defended the decision to foster more “accountability in policing.”

    The city council last week passed a new law requiring cops who use chokeholds to be charged with a misdemeanor, regardless of whether the subject is injured.

    Venting to the New York Post, one law enforcement source claimed that this is what the politicians want, they want an increase in crime so they can further demonize police, while letting “non violent” offenders out of Rikers by the hundreds. “This is what the politicians wanted – no bail, nobody in Rikers, cops not arresting anyone,” one angry law enforcement source said Friday. “All those things equal people walking around on the street with guns, shooting each other.”

    NYC isn’t alone: Chicago witnessed an explosion of violence over father’s day weekend.

  • Doug Casey: The Deep State Is Responsible For All Economic Turmoil
    Doug Casey: The Deep State Is Responsible For All Economic Turmoil

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 19:30

    Authored by Doug Casey via CaseyResearch.com,

    I’d like to address some aspects of the Greater Depression in this essay.

    I’m here to tell you that the inevitable became reality in 2008. We’ve had an interlude over the last few years financed by trillions of new currency units.

    However, the economic clock on the wall is reading the same time as it was in 2007, and the Black Horsemen of your worst financial nightmares are about to again crash through the doors and end the party. And this time, they won’t be riding children’s ponies, but armored Percherons.

    To refresh your memory, let me recount what a depression is.

    The best general definition is: A period of time when most people’s standard of living drops significantly. By that definition, the Greater Depression started in 2008, although historians may someday say it began in 1971, when real wages started falling.

    It’s also a period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated, and when the business cycle, which is caused exclusively by currency debasement (also known as inflation), climaxes. That results in high unemployment, business failures, uncompleted construction, bond defaults, stock market crashes, and the like.

    Fortunately, for those who benefit from the status quo, and members of something called the Deep State, the trillions of new currency units delayed the liquidation. But they also ensured it will now happen on a much grander scale.

    The Deep State is an extremely powerful network that controls nearly everything around you. You won’t read about it in the news because it controls the news. Politicians won’t talk about it publicly. That would be like a mobster discussing murder and robbery on the six o’clock news. You could say the Deep State is hidden, but it’s only hidden in plain sight.

    The Deep State is the source of every negative thing that’s happening right now. To survive the coming rough times, it’s essential for you to know what it’s all about.

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    The State

    Now, what causes economic problems? With the exception of natural events like fires, floods, and earthquakes, they’re all caused directly and indirectly by the State, through its wars, taxes, regulations, and inflation.

    Yes, yes, I know this is an oversimplification, that human nature is really at fault, and the institution of the State is only a mass dramatization of the psychological aberrations and demons that lie within us all.

    But we don’t have time to go all the way down the rabbit hole, so let’s just talk about the proximate rather than the ultimate causes of the Greater Depression. And here, I want to talk about the nature of the State, in general, and then something called the Deep State, in particular.

    A key takeaway (and I emphasize that because I expect it to otherwise bounce off the programmed psyches of most people) is that the very idea of the State itself is poisonous, evil, and intrinsically destructive. But, like so many bad ideas, people have come to assume it’s part of the cosmic firmament, when it’s really just a monstrous scam.

    It’s a fraud, like your belief that you have a right to free speech because of the First Amendment, or a right to be armed because of the Second Amendment. No, you don’t. The U.S. Constitution is just an arbitrary piece of paper… entirely apart from the fact the whole thing is now just a dead letter. You have a right to free speech and to be armed because they’re necessary parts of being a free person, not because of what a political document says.

    Even though the essence of the State is coercion, people have been taught to love and respect it. Most people think of the State in the quaint light of a grade school civics book. They think it has something to do with “We the People” electing a Jimmy Stewart character to represent them.

    That ideal has always been a pernicious fiction, because it idealizes, sanitizes, and legitimizes an intrinsically evil and destructive institution, which is based on force. As Mao once said, political power comes out of the barrel of a gun. But things have gone far beyond that. We’re now in the Deep State.

    The Deep State

    The concept of the Deep State originated in Turkey, which is appropriate, since it’s the heir to the totally corrupt Byzantine and Ottoman empires. And in the best Byzantine manner, the Deep State has insinuated itself throughout the fabric of what once was America. Its tendrils reach from Washington down to every part of civil society. Like a metastasized cancer, it can no longer be easily eradicated.

    I used to joke that there was nothing wrong with Washington that 10 megatons on the capital couldn’t cure. But I don’t say that anymore. Partially because it’s too dangerous, but mainly because it’s now untrue. What’s now needed is 10 megatons on the capital, and four more bursts in a quadrant 10 miles out.

    In many ways, Washington models itself after another city with a Deep State, ancient Rome. Here’s how a Victorian freethinker, Winwood Reade, accurately described it:

    “Rome lived upon its principal till ruin stared it in the face. Industry is the only true source of wealth, and there was no industry in Rome. By day the Ostia road was crowded with carts and muleteers, carrying to the great city the silks and spices of the East, the marble of Asia Minor, the timber of the Atlas, the grain of Africa and Egypt; and the carts brought out nothing but loads of dung. That was their return cargo.”

    The Deep State controls the political and economic essence of the U.S. This is much more than observing that there’s no real difference between the left and right wings of the Demopublican Party.

    It’s well known by anyone with any sense (that is, by everybody except the average voter) that although the Republicans say they believe in economic freedom (but don’t), they definitely don’t believe in social freedom. And the Democrats say they believe in social freedom (but don’t), but they definitely don’t believe in economic freedom.

    Who Is Part of the Deep State?

    The American Deep State is a real, but informal, structure that has arisen to not just profit from, but control, the State.

    The Deep State has a life of its own, like the government itself. It’s composed of top-echelon employees of a dozen Praetorian agencies, like the FBI, CIA, and NSA… top generals, admirals, and other military operatives… long-term congressmen and senators… and directors of important regulatory agencies.

    But the Deep State is much broader than just the government. It includes the heads of major corporations, all of whom are heavily involved in selling to the State and enabling it. That absolutely includes Silicon Valley, although those guys at least have a sense of humor, evidenced by their “Don’t Be Evil” motto.

    It also includes all the top people in the Fed, and the heads of all the major banks, brokers, and insurers. Add the presidents and many professors at top universities, which act as Deep State recruiting centers… all the top media figures, of course… and many regulars at things like Bohemian Grove and the Council on Foreign Relations. They epitomize the status quo, held together by power, money, and propaganda.

    Altogether, I’ll guess these people number 1,000 or so. You might analogize the structure of the Deep State with a huge pack of dogs. The people I’ve just described are the top dogs.

    But there are hundreds of thousands more who aren’t at the nexus, but who directly depend on them, have considerable clout, and support the Deep State because it supports them.

    This includes many of the wealthy, especially those who got that way thanks to their State connections… the more than 1.5 million people who have top secret clearances (that’s a shocking, but accurate, number)… plus top players in organized crime, especially the illegal drug business, little of which would exist without the State. Plus, mid-level types in the police and military, corporations, and non-governmental organizations.

    These are what you might call the running dogs.

    Beyond that are the scores and scores of millions who depend on things remaining the way they are. Like the 50%-plus of Americans who are net recipients of benefits from the State… the 60 million on Social Security… the 66 million on Medicaid… the 50 million on food stamps… the many millions on hundreds of other programs… the 23 million government employees and most of their families. In fact, let’s include the many millions of average Joes and Janes who are just getting by.

    You might call this level of people, the vast majority of the population, whipped dogs. They both love and fear their master, they’ll do as they’re told, and they’ll roll over on their backs and wet themselves if confronted by a top dog or running dog who feels they’re out of line.

    These three types of dogs make up the vast majority of the U.S. population. I trust you aren’t among them. I consider myself a Lone Wolf in this context and hope you are, too. Unfortunately, however, dogs are enemies of wolves, and tend to hunt them down.

    The Deep State is destructive, but it’s great for the people in it. And, like any living organism, its prime directive is: Survive! It survives by indoctrinating the fiction that it’s both good and necessary. However, it’s a parasite that promotes the ridiculous notion that everyone can live at the expense of society.

    Is it a conspiracy, headed by a man stroking a white cat? I think not. I find it’s hard enough to get a bunch of friends to agree on what movie to see, much less a bunch of power-hungry miscreants bent on running everyone’s lives. But, on the other hand, the top dogs all know each other, went to the same schools, belong to the same clubs, socialize, and, most important, have common interests, values, and philosophies.

    The American Deep State rotates around the Washington Beltway. It imports America’s wealth as tax revenue. A lot of that wealth is consumed there by useless mouths. And then, it exports things that reinforce the Deep State, including wars, fiat currency, and destructive policies. This is unsustainable simply because nothing of value comes out of the city.

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Today’s News 22nd June 2020

  • India Seeks Rapid Purchase Of 33 Russian Fighter Jets In Response To Chinese Border Fight
    India Seeks Rapid Purchase Of 33 Russian Fighter Jets In Response To Chinese Border Fight

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 02:45

    India is reportedly seeking to beef up military purchases from Russia following last week’s major border incident with China that resulted in 20 Indian Army troops killed, and an undisclosed number of Chinese PLA casualties in the disputed Galwan Valley area of East Ladakh.

    Indian government sources were cited in New Delhi-based ANI News Agency as saying “the Indian Air Force (IAF) has pushed a proposal to the government for acquiring 33 new fighter aircraft, including 21 MiG-29s and 12 Su-30MKIs from Russia.”

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    Indian Air Force Su-30 MKI multirole fighter aircraft, via Economic Times.

    “The Air Force has been working on this plan for a while, but the process took a faster curve, and a 600-crore (about 787.4 million dollars) offer will be submitted to the Ministry of Defense for final approval this week,” the report continued.

    Indian has long conducted major weapons systems purchases from Russia, including recently acquiring a fleet of Su-30 fighter jets.

    New Delhi now wants to speed up such acquirement as both sides reportedly build up their forces along the border.

    Forbes also pointed out that the new aircraft order from Russia is in direct response to the deadly Galwan Valley border incident with China:

    So it should come as no surprise that India this week reportedly placed a $780 million order with Russia for 33 fighters, enough to equip or reequip two squadrons. What’s weird is which fighter types New Delhi reportedly is buying.

    The Indian order includes 21 MiG-29s and 12 Su-30s, according to press reports. But one aviation expert believes the Sukhois in particular are a poor fit for mountain patrols.

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    China meanwhile, has reportedly been pursuing expansion and modernizing of its high-altitude airbase at the dual use civilian/military Ngari Gunsa airport in Tibet. 

    Advanced PLA J-11 and J-16 fighters have recently been spotted at the base near Ladakh via satellite images.

  • Finally, The EU And Trump See Eye-To-Eye On One International Policy: China
    Finally, The EU And Trump See Eye-To-Eye On One International Policy: China

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/22/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Martin Jay via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Both Trump and the EU are turning on China for very similar reasons but with different timescales ahead of them. The West still struggles with what it requires from China and whether it wants to get rich and become a big spender, or become poorer and flood western markets with cheaper and cheaper goods. Expect more devaluation of the Yuan.

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    EU is “rebalancing this relationship” with China. EU ambassador to the UK João Vale de Almeida tells Chatham House. It’s not about “isolating” or “ganging up” on China, but it’s about addressing issues. We have different systems of values on human rights and other areas”.

    A pretty remarkable statement to make and one which could only have come from a relatively obscure EU official, if it was based on solid support from the highest echelons of the EU in Brussels – who, in turn, would not go ahead with such a bellicose policy if they didn’t have the gilt-edged backing from France and Germany.

    So, in a matter of weeks, where the EU was caught red-handed redacting its own internal report which slammed China over its COVID-19 role – and media coverage – now, we seem to be in the midst of the EU waking up to its own economy imploding and a political calamity to follow which could be the end of the EU as we know it.

    The EU is starting to think about protectionism and is about to develop a new relation with China, which, we should assume means cutting less slack to Beijing on its goods, by jacking up tariffs.

    In the U.S., analysts are also saying that the U.S.-China trade deal is dead in the water, chiefly due to corona crashing world oil prices, which knocked a big hold in the first phase of Trump’s deal which involved China buying huge chunks of oil and gas from the U.S. at higher prices. In reality, for most of this year China’s energy needs have also been dramatically reduced due to chaos and lockdowns which are corona-related. Trump got the first phase off to a good start by forcing China’s hand on agricultural goods which were floundering in many states which supported Trump, but the ‘art of the deal’ U.S. president is actually not very good at doing trade deals. The essence of a trade deal is its rigidity and sustainability. Trump’s barely lasted weeks. Foreign Policy, the high-brow international politics magazine, put it aptly.

    “Amid the collapse in oil demand and prices unleashed by the pandemic, it is now all but certain that China will fail to meet its targets for energy purchases and expose the folly of Trump’s trade strategy” it says. “While Trump was right to address China’s problematic trade practices, the administration’s approach made little sense before the pandemic—and makes even less sense now”.

    And many might argue that Trump’s determination to get a trade deal with China which helped blue collar families back home, was all about getting re-elected anyway, according to John Bolton’s bombshell book which reveals that the U.S. president right from the off was positioning the Chinese premier to help him (Trump) get re-elected. Trump believed all he needed to nail a second victory was a deal with China. Remarkable.

    The toughening of both rhetoric and action now from Trump as the deal falls apart was inevitable. Almost like a petulant child, as it becomes clear that Beijing can’t keep its side of the bargain, Trump goes into self-preservation mode to deflect blame. Barely within a heartbeat, U.S. media announces news of sanctions against China on its reported concentration camps against Muslim groups, which, according to Bolton, he had secretly supported all along with Xi, which the former National Security chief claims was the “right thing to do” according to Trump.

    Within seconds, almost, it’s as though if China cannot serve Trump with his specific needs, then it has to become and enemy to at least generate the requisite media traffic which continues to get Trump on the front pages. And this is what is playing out now. Already Beijing sees the game and is ready to play that role.

    “We again urge the U.S. side to immediately correct its mistakes and stop using this Xinjiang-related law to harm China’s interests and interfere in China’s internal affairs,” the ministry said in a statement.

    “Otherwise China will resolutely take countermeasures, and all the consequences arising there from must be fully borne by the United States.”

    That sounded like a pretty lucid threat from China. Remarkably, Trump, despite the losses to business and the crippling effect on U.S. companies in China, is happy to get tough with China. There is, in fact, no limit in what he can do to get re-elected – even make friends with the Taliban, if that’s what it takes.

    More remarkable is that the EU seems to be following his lead with their rationale why they should be tougher on China. Its own political survival beyond the next European elections in 2024.

    With the catastrophic impact on the EU economy, many member states – not only Italy and Spain which were hit particularly hard – themselves are going to have to make tough decisions which resonate with angry voters over how to hold China accountable for the pandemic. The EU will be forced to follow this trend for its own survival as, for those member states where the political establishment save their own seats, scapegoats will be required. The Blame Game will make losers of the EU and its delusional ideas of being a super power.

    Some political elites will blame Brussels and will have some success with this. And it’s as though EU chiefs are already ahead of the game, if one of its “ambassadors” in London can openly make a comment to the press which talks about a new relationship with China. Xi and his ministers will patiently wait for Trump to fall on his own sword in November, as the scandal mounts up and the pressure on the Republican party reaches fever pitch. For the EU though, there is a longer game at play, with higher stakes. But will Brussels make it to 2024 though?

  • China's Big Surprise (Years In The Making): An EMP Attack?
    China’s Big Surprise (Years In The Making): An EMP Attack?

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 23:45

    Authored by Peter Pry, op-ed via The Hill,

    The coronavirus pandemic has exposed dangerous weaknesses in U.S. planning and preparation for civil defense protection and recovery, and those weaknesses surely have been noticed by our potential enemies: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and international terrorists.

    The U.S. spent decades, and billions of dollars, supposedly preparing for biological warfare. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, and the departments of Defense and Homeland Security are supposed to have contingency plans to protect the American people from lethal biological weapons such as anthrax and genetically engineered smallpox, which could have mortality rates of over 90 percent.

    But our defenders have not even been able to competently cope with COVID-19, which has a mortality rate under 1 percent. The White House took over management of the pandemic, apparently to compensate for the failure of the U.S. government to have adequately stockpiled such basics as ventilators, masks and pharmaceuticals.

    Hostile foreign powers surely have noticed the panicked, incompetent U.S. response to the virus that shut down a prosperous U.S. economy, self-inflicting the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. The nationwide lockdowns brought shortages of all kinds, exposing societal and critical infrastructure fragility — and causing widespread fear.

    Adversaries also have noticed the ongoing U.S. “cold civil war.” According to federal authorities, radicalized young people on both sides of the political divide and criminals have been infiltrating recent protests — rioting, toppling statues and setting fires. The swelling counter-culture anarchy and self-condemnation is reminiscent of 1968, a year of riots and anti-war protests in America that is recognized by most historians as the psychological turning point toward U.S. defeat in the Vietnam War.

    North Korea applauds America’s domestic chaos as proof that democracy does not work and the future belongs to totalitarian states such as China. America looks fragile to dictators who would replace the U.S.-led world order with a new one dominated by themselves. China, for example, has been planning to defeat the U.S. with an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and cyber “Pearl Harbor” attack for a quarter-century. As I warned the Senate Subcommittee on Terrorism, Technology and Homeland Security in 2005, Chinese military writings — such as the following excerpt — make reference to U.S. vulnerability to EMP attacks:

    “Some people might think that things similar to the ‘Pearl Harbor incident’ are unlikely to take place during the information age. Yet it could be regarded as the ‘Pearl Harbor incident’ of the 21st century if a surprise attack is conducted against the enemy’s crucial information systems of command, control and communications by such means as electronic warfare, electromagnetic pulse weapons, telecommunications interference and suppression, computer viruses, and if the enemy is deprived of the information it needs as a result. Even a super military power like the United States, which possesses nuclear missiles and powerful armed forces, cannot guarantee its immunity. … In their own words, a highly computerized open society like the United States is extremely vulnerable to electronic attacks from all sides. This is because the U.S. economy, from banks to telephone systems and from power plants to iron and steel works, relies entirely on computer networks.”

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    As noted in a May 14, 1996, People’s Liberation Army newspaper about a surprise attack on U.S. critical information systems:

    “When a country grows increasingly powerful economically and technologically… it will become increasingly dependent on modern information systems… The United States is more vulnerable to attacks than any other country in the world.”  

    So it is very bad news, more than a year after President Trump issued an Executive Order on Coordinating Resilience Against Electromagnetic Pulses, that the Department of Energy (DOE) and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) have done nothing to protect the national electric grid or other critical infrastructures that sustain the lives of 330 million Americans.

    Instead, non-expert bureaucrats conduct endless studies and conferences to wrangle over technical issues — in effect, reinventing the wheel regarding EMP — that were resolved long ago by real EMP experts. The “coordination process” for national EMP preparedness is the same kind of bureaucratic fumbling that Washington regards as “action,” which gave us the biological warfare unpreparedness and inability to properly respond to the coronavirus pandemic.

    Hopefully, the U.S. Navy is better prepared to cope with an EMP attack than are DOE and DHS. A nuclear EMP attack against U.S. aircraft carriers is the key to victory in China’s military doctrine, as noted in a Feb. 12, 2000, article in the official newspaper of the Shanghai Communist Party Central Committee:

    “The weak points of a modern aircraft carrier are: 1) As a big target, the fleet is easy for a satellite to reconnoiter and locate. … 2) A high degree of electronization is like an Achilles’ heel for an aircraft carrier fleet, which relies heavily on electronic equipment as its central nervous system. These two characteristics determine one tactic.” Therefore, military strategist Ye Jian said in the article in Jiefang Ribao: “The possession of electromagnetic pulse bombs (missiles) will provide the conditions to completely destroy an aircraft carrier fleet, and the way to complete victory in dealing with aircraft carrier fleets.”  

    In March 2020, a panel of China’s military experts threatened to punish U.S. Navy ships for challenging China’s illegal annexation of the South China Sea by making an EMP attack — one of the options they considered least provocative because the crew would be unharmed, but most effective because the ship would be disabled. Now three U.S. aircraft carriers are in the Pacific to challenge China’s aggression in the South China Sea.

    Dan Gallington, a former senior Defense Department official, asks in his recent Washington Times article, “Is America on the path to another Pearl Harbor, but with China?”  

    China may offer the answer soon.  

  • New Zealand Unveils Web Safety Ad Featuring Two 'Porn Stars' 
    New Zealand Unveils Web Safety Ad Featuring Two ‘Porn Stars’ 

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 23:15

    A rather unusual New Zealand government online safety video advertisement featuring “porn actors” went viral in the first half of June. 

    In the ad, the porn stars, named Derek and Sue, greet a mother at her front door and say: “Hiya… your son’s been watching us online.”

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    Derek (left); Sue (right). h/t Keep It Real Online

    The shocked mother, Sandra, played by comedian Justine Smith, is told by the nude couple that her son just watched them on his laptop, iPad, PlayStation, his phone, her phone, and on a smart TV. 

    Sue explains: “We usually perform for adults, but your son’s just a kid. He might not know how relationships work.”

    The porn stars tell Sandra she must have a word with her son, Matt, about what was happening in the video, emphasizing hardcore lovemaking is not exactly real life. Sue said, “we just get straight to it” in the videos; Derek admits: “I’d never act like that in real life.”

    About halfway through the ad, Sandra’s son walks in on the conversation and immediately drops a plate, realizing that, the porn stars he was just watching are at his front door. 

    Sandra then says: “Alright matey, it sounds like it’s time to have a talk about the difference between what you see online and real-life relationships. No judgment!”

    The video ad is part of a campaign called Keep it real online,” which raises awareness that online porn is not real-life: 

    “In today’s digital world, it’s very easy for children to come across pornography. This can happen by accident, as most sites are free and don’t require any type of age verification, or intentionally out of curiosity. While children might see porn for the first time by accident, teens are more likely to be seeking it out.

    “It’s normal for young people to be curious about sex. The best way to support them is to have open, honest conversations about what they might see and how it’s different from real sex and relationships,” the campaign said on its website. 

    A recent report found youngsters in New Zealand use porn sites as a tool to learn about sex. At least a third of all porn videos in the country are non-consensual acts. 

    The campaign has debuted as internet porn activity exploded during months of virus lockdowns around the world. Americans used porn to cope with pandemic stress.

  • Smart Society, Stupid People
    Smart Society, Stupid People

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 22:45

    Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    We’ve lived through the most bizarre experience of human folly in my lifetime, and perhaps in generations.

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    Among the strangest aspects of this has been the near universal failure on the part of regular people, and even the appointed “experts” (the ones the government employs, in any case), to have internalized anything about the basics of viruses that my mother understands, thanks to her mother before who had a solid education in the subject after World War II. 

    Thus, for example, are all governments ready to impose new lockdowns should the infection data turn in the other direction. Under what theory, precisely, is this supposed to help matters? How does reimposing stay-home orders or mandating gym closures mysteriously manage to intimidate a virus into going away?

    “Run away and hide” seems to have replaced anything like a sophisticated understanding of viruses and immunities. 

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    So I decided to download Molecular and Cell Biology for Dummies just to check if I’m crazy. I’m pleased to see that it clearly states that there are only two ways to defeat a virus: natural immunity and vaccines. 

    The book completely left out the option that almost the entire world embraced in March: destroy businesses, force everyone to hide in their homes, and make sure that no one gets close to anyone else. The reason that the text leaves that out is that the idea is essentially ridiculous, so much so that it was initially sold as a strategy to preserve hospital space and only later mutated into a general principle that the way to beat a virus is to avoid people and wear a mini-hazmat suit. 

    Here is the passage:

    For all of recorded history, humans have done a deadly dance with viruses. Measles, smallpox, polio, and influenza viruses changed the course of human history: Measles and smallpox killed hundreds of thousands of Native Americans; polio killed and crippled people, including US President Franklin Delano Roosevelt; and the 1918 influenza epidemic killed more people than were killed during all of World War I.

    For most viruses that attack humans, your only defenses are prevention and your own immune systems. Antibiotics don’t kill viruses, and scientists haven’t discovered many effective antiviral drugs.

    Vaccines are little pieces of bacteria or viruses injected into the body to give the immune system an education. They work by ramping up your own defensive system so that you’re ready to fight the bacteria or virus upon first contact, without becoming sick first. However, for some viral diseases no vaccines exist, and the only option is to wait uncomfortably for your immune system to win the battle. 

    A virus is not a miasma, a cootie, or red goo like in the children’s book Cat in the Hat. There is no path toward waging much less winning a national war against a virus. It cares nothing about borders, executive orders, and titles. A virus is a thing to battle one immune system at a time, and our bodies have evolved to be suited to do just that. Vaccines can give advantage to the immune system through a clever hack. Even so, there will always be another virus and another battle, and so it’s been for hundreds of thousands of years. 

    If you read the above carefully, you now know more than you would know from watching 50 TED talks on viruses by Bill Gates. Though having thrown hundreds of millions of dollars into cobbling together some global plan to combat microbes, his own understanding seems not to have risen above a cooties theory of run away and hide. 

    There is another level of virus comprehension that came to be observed in the 1950s and then codified in the 70s. For many viruses, not everyone has to catch them to become immune and not everyone needs a vaccine if there is one. Immunity is achieved when a certain percentage of the population has contracted some form of virus, with symptoms or without, and then the virus effectively dies. 

    This has important implications because it means that vulnerable demographics can isolate for the active days of the virus, and return to normal life once “herd immunity” has been realized with infection within some portion of the non-vulnerable population. This is why every bit of medical advice for elderly people has been to avoid large crowds during the flu season and why getting and recovering for non-vulnerable groups is a good thing. 

    What you get from this virus advice is not fear but calm management. This wisdom – not ignorance but wisdom – was behind the do-no-harm approach to the polio epidemic of 1949-1952, the Asian flu of 1957-58, and the Hong Kong flu of 1968-69. Donald Henderson summed up this old wisdom beautifully: “Communities faced with epidemics or other adverse events respond best and with the least anxiety when the normal social functioning of the community is least disrupted.”

    And that’s what we did for the one hundred years following the catastrophic Spanish flu of 1918. We never again attempted widespread closures or lockdown precisely because they had failed so miserably in the few places they were attempted. 

    The cooties theory attempted a comeback with the Swine flu of 2009 (H1N1) but the world was too busy dealing with a financial crisis so the postwar strategy of virus control and mitigation prevailed once again, thankfully. But then the perfect storm hit in 2020 and a new generation of virus mitigators got their chance to conduct a grand social experiment based on computer modeling and forecasting

    Next thing you know, we had this new vocabulary shoved down our throats and we all had to obey strangely arbitrary exhortations. “Go inside! No, wait don’t go inside!” “Stay healthy but shut the gyms!” “Get away from the virus but don’t travel!” “Don’t wear a mask, wait, do wear a mask!” (Now we can add: “Only gather in groups if you are protesting Trump”) 

    People started believing crazy things, as if we are medieval peasants, such as that if there is a group of people or if you stand too close to someone, the bad virus will spontaneously appear and you will get infected. Or that you could be a secret superspreader even if you have no symptoms, and also you can get the virus by touching almost anything. 

    Good grief, the sheer amount of unscientific phony baloney unleashed in these terrible three months boggles the mind. But that’s what happens in any panic. Apparently. 

    Now, something has truly been bugging me these months as I’ve watched the incredible unravelling of most of the freedoms we’ve long taken for granted. People were locked out of the churches and schools, businesses were shuttered, markets were closed, governors shoved through shelter in place orders meant not for disease control but aerial bomb raids, and masks were mandatory, all while regular people who otherwise seem smart hopped around each other like grasshoppers. 

    My major shock is discovering how much sheer stupidity exists in the population, particularly among the political class. 

    Forgive a defense of my use of the term “stupid” but it is technically correct. I take it from Albert Camus and his brilliant book The Plague (1947). “When a war breaks out, people say: ‘It’s too stupid; it can’t last long.’ But though a war may well be ‘too stupid,’ that doesn’t prevent its lasting. Stupidity has a knack of getting its way.”

    Indeed it is true. 

    It was only last February when we seemed smart. We had amazing technology, movies on demand, a smartphone in our pockets to communicate with everyone and reveal all the world’s knowledge. There was peace more or less. There was prosperity. There was progress. Our medical systems worked. It seemed that only a few months ago, we had it all together. We seemed smart. Until suddenly stupid took over, or so it seemed. 

    Actually we weren’t smart as individuals. Our politicians were as dumb as they ever have been, and massive ignorance pervaded the population, then as always. What was smart last February was society and the processes that made society work in the good old days. 

    “Please explain.”

    I shall. 

    Consider the social analytics of F.A. Hayek. His major theme is that the workings of the social order require knowledge and intelligence, but none of this essential knowledge subsists within any individual mind much less any political leader. The knowledge and intelligence necessary for society to thrive is instead decentralized throughout society, and comes to be embedded or instantiated within institutions and processes that gradually evolve from the free actions and choices of individuals. 

    What are those institutions? Market prices, supply chains, observations we make from the successful or unsuccessful choices of others that inform our habits and movements, manners and mores that work as social signals, interest rates that carefully coordinate the flow of money with our time preferences and risk tolerances, and even morals that govern our treatment of each other. All these come together to create a form of social intelligence that resides not in individual minds but rather the process of social evolution itself. 

    The trouble is that a well functioning society can create an illusion that it all happens not because of the process but rather because we are so damn smart or maybe we have wise leaders with a good plan. It seems like it must be so, else how could we have become so good at what we do? Hayek’s main point is that it is a mistake to credit individual intelligence or knowledge, much less good governments with brainy leaders, with civilizational achievements; rather, the real credit belongs to institutions and processes that no one in particular controls. 

    “To understand our civilisation,” Hayek writes, “one must appreciate that the extended order resulted not from human design or intention but spontaneously: it arose from unintentionally conforming to certain traditional and largely moral practices, many of which men tend to dislike, whose significance they usually fail to understand, whose validity they cannot prove, and which have nonetheless fairly rapidly spread by means of an evolutionary selection — the comparative increase of population and wealth — of those groups that happened to follow them.”

    The lockdowns took a sledgehammer to these practices, processes, and institutions. It replaced them nearly overnight with new bureaucratic and police-state mandates that herded us into our homes and arbitrarily assigned new categories: elective vs non-elective medical procedures, essential vs nonessential business, permissible vs. impermissible forms of association, even to the point of measuring the distance from which we must be separated one from another. And just like that, via executive order, many of the institutions and processes were crushed under the boot of the political class. 

    What emerged to take its place? It’s sad to say but the answer is widespread ignorance. Despite having access to all the world’s knowledge in our pockets, vast numbers of politicians and regular people defaulted back to a premodern cognition of disease. People did this out of fear, and were suddenly and strangely acquiescent to political commands. I’ve had friends tell me that they were guilty of this back in the day, believing that mass death was imminent so the only thing to do was to shelter in place and comply with the edicts. 

    The seeming intelligence that we had only in February suddenly seemed to turn to mush. A better way to understand this is all our smartest institutions and practices were crushed, leaving only raw stupidity in its place. 

    Truth is that we as individuals are probably not much smarter than our ancestors; the reason we’ve made so much progress is due to the increasing sophistication of Hayek’s extended orders of association, signalling, capital accumulation, and technological know how, none of which are due to wise leaders in government and industry but are rather attributable to the wisdom of the institutions we’ve gradually built over decades, centuries, and a millenia. 

    Take those away and you reveal what we don’t really want to see.

    Looking back, I’m very impressed at the knowledge and awareness that the postwar generation had toward disease mitigation. It was taught in the schools, handed down to several generations, and practiced in journalism and public affairs. That was smart. Something happened in the 21st century to cause a kind of breakage in that medical knowledge chain, and thus did societies around the world become vulnerable in the presence of a new virus to rule by charlatans, hucksters, media howlers, and would-be dictators. 

    With lockdown finally easing, we will see the return of what seems to be smart societies, and the gradual loss of the influence of stupid. But let us not deceive ourselves. It could be that we’ve learned nothing from the fiasco that unfolded before our eyes. If economies come to be restored, eventually, to their former selves, it will not be because we or our leaders somehow beat a virus. The virus outsmarted everyone. What will fix what the political class has broken is the freedom once again to piece back together the institutions and processes that create the extended order that makes us all feel smarter than we really are. 

  • China Keeps Loan Prime Rates Unchanged For Another Month, Sparking Confusion Over Beijing's Intentions
    China Keeps Loan Prime Rates Unchanged For Another Month, Sparking Confusion Over Beijing’s Intentions

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 22:15

    One month after unexpectedly keeping its 1 and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged at 3.85% and 4.65% respectively following the April 19 rate cut  (which came just as China was supposedly V-shaped recovering), moments ago Beijing did it again and kept China’s so-called Libor flat, with the benchmark LPRs for 1 and 5-year tenors unchanged at 3.85% and 4.60%.

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    As a reminder, the LPR is a recently launched market indicator of the price that lenders charge clients for new loans, released around the 20th day of every month.

    While there was some speculation that after last month’s People’s Congress where the PBOC vowed it would ease financial conditions further including broad and RRR-based rate cuts, in its preview, SocGen correctly said that it expects “no change to China’s Loan Prime Rates, as the PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged last week.”

    What the move would suggest is that while China – whose economy is still shrinking due to covid – is certainly desperate for easier funding conditions, we may have reached a critical threshold where banks may no longer be profitable should LPRs be cut further (especially now that borrowers have non-traditional, shadow sources of funding once again).

    This brings up another point brought up by SocGen’s Kiyong Seong:

    On top of the heavy bond supply since May, the PBoC’s reluctance to inject liquidity has also been partly accountable for the significant correction in CNY rates. To our understanding, this reluctance stemmed from the fact that abundant liquidity and easier borrowing conditions were being abused, flowing into financial products rather than the real economy. However, this development has been gradually contained by rising interest rates and regulatory action, allowing the PBoC to turn more dovish again, as the slow private-sector recovery calls for.

    All this means that Beijing is stuck between a rock and a hard place, on one hand urgently needing more rate cuts, and on the other unable to implement them without causing even more bubbles (see shadow bank products and China’s nevernding housing bubble) and another round of impairments, NPL builds up and potential bank failures.

  • Ghislaine Does Paris: Jeffrey Epstein's Fugitive 'Madam' Hiding Behind French Extradition Laws
    Ghislaine Does Paris: Jeffrey Epstein’s Fugitive ‘Madam’ Hiding Behind French Extradition Laws

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 22:15

    Jeffrey Epstein’s accused ‘madam’ is reportedly holed up in a luxury apartment on Paris’s Avenue Matignon – just a five minute drive from the dead pedophile’s $8.6 million flat, according to the Daily Mail.

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    Maxwell “is moving locations every month to keep private investigators off her tail and is ­staying at the residences of trusted colleagues and contacts,” according to a source.

    “She wants to remain in France for as long as she can to take advantage of extradition laws and has a huge network of contacts willing to keep her hidden,” they added. “Under French law anyone born on French soil is safe from extradition to another country, regardless of the alleged crime.

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    Maxwell is now understood to have moved into a flat on on Avenue Matignon, in Paris’s 8th Arrondissement  (via the Daily Mail)

    “It doesn’t mean she won’t be ­prosecuted for her links to Epstein but if she does end up facing charges it will be in France and not the US.

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    The French apartment is linked to a Normandy-based business contact, according to the report.

    Epstein and Maxwell began dating in the early 1990s, after which she became his ‘madam’ and helicopter pilot – allegedly ferrying underage girls to his multiple properties around the world. In 2003, Epstein told a reporter with Vanity Fair that Maxwell was his “best friend.”

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    Maxwell’s Her new luxury abode is only a short five-minute drive from Epstein’s £7million pad on Avenue Foch (pictured)

    Maxwell comes from money. Her father was publisher Robert Maxwell – who himself faced accusations of being a Mossad double (and possibly triple) agent and a “bad character” who was “almost certainly financed by Russia,” according to the British Foreign Office. Robert Maxwell died in 1991 when he fell from his yacht, the Lady Ghislaine – however the circumstances surrounding his demise have been rife with speculation (including that it was a Mossad assassination – a theory which attorney and longtime Epstein associate Alan Dershowitz slammed in a 2003 op-ed). 

    Ghislaine has been accused by three women of procuring and training young girls to perform massage and sexual acts on Epstein and his associates. 

    Virginia Giuffre (previously named Virginia Roberts), one of Epstein’s alleged victims, claimed in a civil lawsuit that Maxwell “recruited” her into Epstein’s orbit, where she was forced to have sex with Epstein and his powerful friends, including Prince Andrew.

    Giuffre asserts in her complaint that Maxwell, the sole defendant in the suit and the daughter of late publishing magnate Robert Maxwell, routinely recruited underaged girls for Epstein and was doing so when she approached the $9-an-hour locker room attendant at Mar-a-Lago in 1999 about giving massages to the wealthy investment banker.

    Maxwell also attended Chelsea Clinton’s wedding – and has been linked to other prominent people such as Prince Andrew, Donald Trump and Alan Dershowitz. 

    Meanwhile, it looks like the ‘untouchable’ Maxwell may be in Paris for the forseable future.

  • Russia Can Play Crucial Role In Calming China-India Conflict
    Russia Can Play Crucial Role In Calming China-India Conflict

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 21:45

    Authored by Finian Cunningham via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The timing of a Russia-India-China summit next week could not be more apt following a deadly skirmish in the disputed Himalayan region which resulted in dozens of military casualties.

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    The summit scheduled for June 22 of the RIC (Russia-India-China) group was initiated weeks ago by Moscow. It will be held by teleconference between the foreign ministers. The event predates the flare-up in dangerous tensions between New Delhi and Beijing.

    At least 20 Indian soldiers were killed earlier this week in hand-to-hand fighting with Chinese forces. It was the deadliest incident in more than half a century since the two Asian powers fought a brief war in 1962 over similar border dispute. There are dozens of casualties also reported on the Chinese side, but Beijing has not officially confirmed numbers.

    New Delhi and Beijing immediately expressed willingness at the highest level to deescalate the tensions. There is mutual recognition that further clashes could spin disastrously out of control between the nuclear-armed states.

    However, the acrimony will not be easy to contain. Both sides have blamed the other for aggression following the bloody incident on Monday-Tuesday night. There is popular anger in both nations with Indian protesters burning images of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

    Reports say hundreds of soldiers were engaged in a pitched battle using rocks, clubs and knives after opposing units became involved in a brawl in the high-altitude Galwan Valley. Many soldiers were thrown to their deaths from treacherous slopes.

    Indian and Chinese forces patrol the disputed 3,500-km Line of Actual Control between the two countries with competing territorial claims. A bilateral agreement stipulates that the rival units are unarmed in order to reduce risk of conflict.

    Confrontations have increased in recent years with both sides accusing the other of encroachment. Following a border skirmish in May, Indian and Chinese army commanders negotiated a de-escalation deal earlier this month. Now both sides are accusing each other of bad faith.

    The RIC summit may provide a path for New Delhi and Beijing to find a way out of escalation. One crucial factor is Russia’s respected standing with both powers. Russian President Vladimir Putin has cordial relations with both Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping. Moscow can be trusted to act as an honest broker to facilitate dialogue for resolving the long-running territorial dispute between India and China, a dispute which goes back to the legacy of the British Empire and the contested borders it bequeathed.

    U.S. President Donald Trump has already offered to mediate between India and China. But that offer, made in May, was rebuffed at the time by New Delhi. It was perceived that Washington is not a credible broker, given its well-established alignment with India for strategic-military aims against China. Indian premier Modi may have felt the patronage of Washington would undermine his credibility as a strong leader in dealing with China on a one-to-one basis.

    In any case, any pretensions of Trump acting as a mediator have been blown apart since his administration ratcheted up China-bashing over the Covid-19 pandemic. Trump and his aides have made incendiary claims blaming China for causing global spread of the disease and in particular huge economic damages and more than 112,000 deaths in the U.S. Beijing has dismissed Washington’s claims as a cynical cover-up of inherent failures on the part of the Trump administration.

    The Cold War-like tensions between Washington and Beijing have also seen an increasing deployment of U.S. military forces in the Asia-Pacific region to counter what the Trump administration and Pentagon provocatively claims to be “Chinese aggression”.

    Any involvement of the U.S. in the current India-China tensions can only make the already fraught situation even worse. Indeed, the Trump White House and anti-China hawks in Congress will try to exploit the tensions with a view to destabilize Beijing.

    India should tread carefully to avoid being used by Washington as a proxy for its geopolitical confrontation with China.

    In an editorial this week, China’s semi-official Global Times accused India of being misled by Washington as a “lever” for the latter’s own strategic goals.

    If New Delhi and Beijing are genuinely motivated to find a negotiated settlement to their decades-old territorial dispute, they will have to work together to find a mutual compromise on defining a sovereign border, one that finally supplants the diffuse Line of Actual Control. The incoherence of the LAC is an-ever present source of contention and ultimately a tinderbox for war.

    Russia is the only power with bona fides and credibility as an honest broker for resolving the India-China conflict.

    New Delhi will have to decide if it wants to fully engage with the Eurasian multipolar vision of development espoused by China and Russia, among others, or will it allow Washington to interfere with its selfish imperialist agenda to the detriment of the entire region?

  • NYC's Army Of 3,000 COVID-19 'Contact Tracers' Have Accomplished Surprisingly Little
    NYC’s Army Of 3,000 COVID-19 ‘Contact Tracers’ Have Accomplished Surprisingly Little

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 21:15

    As officials and experts around the world continue to stubbornly insist that contact tracing is ‘the answer’ to preventing a resurgence in new cases once economies reopen, even as a growing body of research suggests that the virus spreads most quickly among members of the same household, and less frequently via asymptomatic ‘carriers’ (though it surely does happen), New York City is finding that the ‘army’ of contact tracers raised by Mayor Bill de Blasio is much less useful than officials had hoped, according to a report in the New York Times published one day before the city enters its second phase of reopening.

    with outdoor dining, in-store shopping and office work resuming tomorrow, the first batch of data from the program, which began on June 1, indicates that the tracers are usually unable to locate infected people or gather any useful information from newly infected subjects. Interestingly, the biggest ‘obstacle’ to obtaining this information is the patients themselves: Only 35% of the 5,347 city residents who tested positive or were presumed positive for COVID-19 in the program’s first two weeks gave information about close contacts to tracers, the city said.

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    If anything, this failure suggests that contact tracing in this manner simply isn’t an effective tool for preventing a second wave of the virus, though states have many other tools, including widespread testing and quarantining the sick and vulnerable. Instead, the NYT suggests the failure is a “worrisome” sign that “the difficulties in preventing a surge of new cases as states across the country reopen.”

    Though contact tracing has worked in the past during outbreaks of tuberculosis and measles, the technique appears to be much less useful when implemented on the scale of the coronavirus, officials are finding. However, other countries have reported more success with these techniques, including China, South Korea and Germany and other countries have set up extensive tracking networks that have helped identify potentially infected individuals before they become seriously symptomatic. 

    In South Korea, for example, people at weddings, funerals, karaoke bars, nightclubs and internet-game parlors write down their names and telephone numbers, and the authorities have been able to draw on cellphone location data. Of course, all of this relies on the subjects being willing to give out their information.

    But when American tech behemoths instead decide to surreptitiously install tracking apps without the direct consent of the user, well, let’s just say it doesn’t exactly help establish the trust and confidence that’s critical for these programs to work.

    One of the program’s leaders told the NYT that while things are getting off to a less-than-ideal start, there are signs that NYC’s program could help prevent another outbreak. For example, at least most of the patients who are being contacted are at least answering the phones.

    Dr. Ted Long, head of New York City’s new Test and Trace Corps, insisted that the program was going well, but acknowledged that many people who tested positive had failed to provide information over the phone to the contact tracers, or left interviews before being asked. Others told the tracers they had been only at home and had not put others at risk, and then did not name family members.

    Dr. Long said one encouraging sign was that nearly all the people for whom the city had numbers at least answered the phone. He added that he believed that the tracers would be more successful when they start going to people’s homes in the next week or two, rather than just relying on communication over the phone.

    The NYT then spent most of the piece focusing on individual contact tracers from minority backgrounds who had been assigned to canvass patients in more ‘economically disadvantaged’ neighborhoods.

    But another expert quoted by the NYT pointed out that Mayor de Blasio’s decision to establish the corp of contact tracers outside the City Department of Public Health would  ensure that all the contact tracers lack the experience for this type of work.

    Dr. Halkitis at Rutgers said he thought the low cooperation rate was likely due to several factors, including the inexperience of the tracers; widespread reluctance among Americans to share personal information with the government; and Mayor de Blasio’s decision to shift the program away from the city’s Department of Health.

    “You have taken it away from the people who actually know how to do it,” he said. “The D.O.H. people, they are skilled. They know this stuff.”

  • Resist Or Submit
    Resist Or Submit

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 20:45

    Authored by Robert Gore via Straight Line Logic blog,

    The objective of the coronavirus response and the riots...

    During the coronavirus hoax and the George Floyd riots, most people kept their comments and criticisms to private conversations and internet postings. They didn’t respond to forced lockdowns or violence in the streets with violence of their own, although many of them have the ability and capacity to do so. Their restraint has been the primary force keeping whatever remains of the peace in this country.

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    The restraint stems from respect for that peace, their stake in maintaining it, and a fading hope that things will eventually get back to normal. People who run businesses, have jobs, own property, and are engaged in honest production have a vested interest in civil order. Only reluctantly will they overtly oppose unjust and idiotic government measures or rampaging rioters. Keeping their cold rage on ice, the vast majority will be moved to action only when they feel they have no other choice.

    That day is coming. Consider the philosophical obscenity of governments renouncing their only justified reasons for existence—protecting individual rights, particularly the foundational rights of security for people and property. The Minneapolis city council voted to disband its police force and other jurisdictions are considering defunding theirs. Minneapolis and Seattle abandoned police stations to mobs. No word yet if criminals are going to swear off crime and embark on productive pursuits, or where they’ll find such pursuits with 30 plus million unemployed. The only certainly is that official appeasement will elicit nothing but what appeasement always elicits—contempt.

    The criminals will fill the void as any remaining police retreat from law enforcement that might subject them to personal danger as well as official recrimination and punishment. As slums and ghettoes become “no-go” areas akin to Islamic “no-go” districts in Europe, the criminals and their gangs will thrive while the innocent will suffer, forced to either leave or cower in place. Eventually entire cities will be “no-go.”

    The government officials pushing to eliminate or defund police are slitting their own throats. The praetorians of any government—the police and military—are always just as corrupt as the government of which they are a part. However, the de facto first duty of the praetorians is to protect the government itself, and that becomes more paramount as the government becomes more corrupt. Appeasing violence by renouncing one’s defenses against it guarantees more violence and the eventual elimination of the renouncers, i.e. useful idiots.

    It’s already happening in once great cities that have been governed by statist stooges for decades. Their governments are crumbling and the cities are dissolving into chaotic hellholes before their eyes. Many cities are already shunned by anyone seeking freedom and its fruits: individual rights, honest production, voluntary interaction, wealth, security, and peace.

    City and state governments and the federal government are flat broke and technically bankrupt. Coronavirus totalitarianism and the George Floyd riots have destroyed businesses, jobs, and property values—the tax base—while at the same time increasing the demand for support payments, social services, and public safety. Governments are presently running deficits and their future medical and pension liabilities are far greater than their means to pay them.

    Insolvency will be anti-government revolutionaries’ staunchest ally, not requiring them to lift a finger but merely watch as governments spend and borrow themselves into ruin. This will undoubtedly inflict a great deal of misery on the populace, but governments are not their people. The latter will still have productive assets and skills; the former produce nothing.

    The federal government is resorting to the tactic resorted to by bankrupt governments throughout history—debasing its own debt—as if manufacturing ever increasing trillions of new IOUs can actually produce value. A government undermining its own debt is idiocy on par with a government disbanding its police department. Historically, debasement becomes debauchery followed by downfall. A government that can offer the honest and the productive nothing but its own worthless promises has one foot in the grave, potential prey to anyone who can promise something better—restoration of political, financial, and economic stability—by fair means or foul.

    The coronavirus response, monetary debasement, and George Floyd riots have clearly demonstrated to the honest and the productive that governments offer them less than nothing. For decades they’ve been told they have to put up with governments’ protection racket. Taxes, coerced redistribution, and funny money would keep the rabble at bay and protect whatever governments left them of their businesses, incomes, and wealth. By and large they put up and shut up.

    Now governments can’t or won’t protect themselves and officials are taking the knee in hopes they’ll be spared by the marauding horde. We’ll see how that works out. Many of their constituents who still have spines have gone full rooftop Korean—stocking up on guns and ammo to protect the homes and businesses governments won’t. They’ve seen the futility of governments as protection racket, and of putting up and shutting up.

    The marauding horde and its rhetorical and political enablers have told a vast swath of the population that their jobs, businesses, safety, and lives do not matter, except as fodder for the horde. Predictably, the horde is setting up its own protection racket: show us the money…or else.

    Politicians will be writing rubber checks to propitiate the ceaseless demands for the unearned from anyone with a gripe and political clout. A figure of $14 trillion, even if it is just funny money, has been bandied about as slavery reparations from people who were never slaveowners to people who were never slaves. That $14 trillion may not make it into law, but a smaller amount might—more money from those who earn it to those who don’t. The honest and the productive always pick up the tab, and the recipients never stay propitiated. Why is anyone surprised at the former’s contempt for the latter or the latter’s contempt for the former? Perhaps we need to have a conversation about that.

    Or perhaps before the collapse of the cities spreads to the rest of the country, before cold rage erupts into hot rage, before the financial and economic system completely fails, and before wars erupt and governments are overthrown, we need to have a conversation about divorce. Here’s a proposal that will never be peaceably implemented, but it’s important to understand why it won’t be.

    Given the irreconcilable ideological divisions within the U.S., why not split the country into six or seven different countries that reflect those divisions? The East Coast and New England could go their own way, same for the Middle Atlantic, the South, the Midwest, the Southwest, the mountain states, and the far West. Not that there aren’t cultural and political differences within those regions, but there is more homogeneity than within the US as a whole.

    For the first ten years allow free immigration between the new countries so everyone has the opportunity to migrate to the country for which they have the most affinity. Split up the nukes and other military assets so each country can deter attack. The countries will work out taxes, trade, and other economic arrangements as they see fit. Those may run the gamut from Marxist collectivism to laissez faire (where SLL would end up).

    The animating spirit of this proposal is allowing people to go their own way and find their own place, in short, to live and let live. And that is why it has no chance of being accepted. Other than Laissez-Faire land, none of the countries could allow live and let live. From mixed economy welfare-statism to democratic socialism to Marxist totalitarianism, every political system is built on subjugation and submission, on a principle that boils down to: your life is the state’s.

    There are differences in degree, but the essential principle is always the same. The state can take what it wants from you, up to and including your life as it sends you off to a concentration camp, a gas chamber, or a pointless war. Governments all over the world just deprived their citizens of jobs, businesses, free movement, and even the right to breathe fresh air. Coming soon: mandatory vaccines, biometric identification, a health credentialing and credit system modeled on China’s social credit system, and universal contact and location tracing.

    Anyone who has watched a baby, a kitten, a puppy, or any other animal being born has witnessed the miracle of new life. For humans, those precious moments open the gates to all the amazing potential of the human mind, spirit, and soul. The possibilities on this extraordinary journey called life are endless—to be met with anticipation and realized with joy.

    Such is a healthy human spirit. What is the animating spirit of coercion, power, subjugation, and totalitarianism? No truism was ever truer: misery loves company. Those who privately bear their suffering out of strength of spirit and quiet consideration for the rest of us deserve a salute. Miserable, malignant souls have no strength of spirit or consideration for others. They exercise power for power’s sake, their cancer feeding on submission and domination.

    A strong human spirit recoils in instinctive loathing at ritual exactions like wearing a mask or taking a knee. At least 90 percent of the masks worn are ineffective, and 100 percent adversely affect wearers, who are rebreathing their own respiratory waste and affirming mindless group-think.

    Will stepped in front of his portrait and studied it. In Arabella’s experience, no one could look upon his own face in a mirror, or see a representation of it, indifferently. Will liked to look at himself. He was handsome, why shouldn’t he? Arabella liked to look at herself. She liked what she saw, and she studied her face’s angles and proportions. There were those who didn’t like looking at themselves, sometimes because their faces were unsightly or deformed, but usually because they saw deformity or ugliness in themselves that no one else saw.

    The Golden Pinnacle, Robert Gore, 2013

    It’s conjecture, but not unfounded, that masks satisfy a psychic need. People are wearing masks when they are alone in their cars or outdoors, and they may not remove them even after the official all clear, if that ever comes. You don’t hide what you’re proud of, and the face is the window to the soul.

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    No conjecture is required here; this is abject self-abasement. Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and company are concretizing a handover. Their politics draped pursuit of power in professed altruistic concern for the constituencies that provided them power. Now they are kneeling to the new politics, if you can call it that, which dispenses with the hypocritical concern, sees people not as individuals but as members of groups who either aid or hinder the acquisition of power, and are driven by malevolent plans to subjugate and enslave. It’s a race to the bottom. This handover is like the brutal and vicious Mafia ceding the drug business to the even more brutal and vicious Columbians.

    Such power always insists, at the point of a gun if necessary, on complete submission in thought, word, and deed. Those scheming for control of CHOP, a city, a state, the United States, or the entire world are overjoyed that millions submit to Covid-19 tyranny and that government officials, corporate executives, celebrities, and other “important” people genuflect to orchestrated violence. Does anyone think all this taking of knees would have happened if there had been peaceful protests but no riots? The lesson our would-be rulers, or more correctly, our would-be dictators, will take from this: fear works on both the masses and the elite.

    The translation of “laissez faire” is “let go.” Unfortunately for those of us who want the freedom to live our lives as we see fit, malignant souls don’t let go and won’t allow us to live in freedom, pursuing our own happiness. Even a laissez-faire district the size of CHOP wouldn’t receive the tolerance that collectivist CHOP has so far. The police or troops would clear it out as quickly as they could.

    The point of coronavirus totalitarianism and orchestrated riots is surrender, humiliation, and submission, not for the sake of health or justice, but for the sake of surrender, humiliation, and submission.

    The choice for each of us couldn’t be clearer: resist or submit.

  • Indian Troops Given 'Fire At Will' Orders Against Chinese Troops If Threatened, Enraging Beijing
    Indian Troops Given ‘Fire At Will’ Orders Against Chinese Troops If Threatened, Enraging Beijing

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 20:15

    Beijing is enraged over current widespread Indian media reports that the Indian Army has been given orders to shoot or use “complete freedom of action” in hostile engagements with Chinese PLA forces along the disputed Ladakh border region.

    The reports come following last week’s major border incident with China that resulted in 20 Indian Army troops killed, and an undisclosed number of Chinese PLA casualties in the disputed Galwan Valley area of East Ladakh.

    Chinese state-media Global Times editor Hu Xijin called out the reports, saying that if the new ‘rules of engagement’ are true, it’s a serious violation of prior treaties implemented for deescalation

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    Indeed multiple headlines in major Indian newspapers asserted that Indian troops have been issued the new controversial orders.

    The Hindustan Times for one, had this to say

    A significant change in Rules of Engagement (ROE) by the Indian Army following the Galwan Valley skirmish that left 20 Indian soldiers dead gives “complete freedom of action” to commanders deployed along the contested Line of Actual Control (LAC) to “handle situations at the tactical level,” two senior officers said on Saturday on condition of anonymity.

    The commanders will no longer be bound by restrictions on the use of firearms and will have full authority to respond to “extraordinary situations” using all resources at their disposal, said one of the officers cited above.

    Essentially troops will be able to fire on opposing Chinese troops if they feel under threat without consulting higher level officers or the national chain of command.

    Obviously this holds the potential for more such deadly escalations as happened a week ago, considered the most severe Chinese-India clash along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in a half-century.

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    June 16 satellite image showing Chinese military personnel in the Galwan Valley. Souce: 2020 Planet Labs/AFP/Getty Images

    The Hindustan Times report cited another military source further, who explained: “With the changes in the ROE, there’s nothing that limits the ability of Indian commanders to take whatever action they deem necessary on the LAC. ROE have been amended to address the brutal tactics being employed by Chinese troops.”

    Days after the Monday night clash, which apparently did not involve discharging of firearms, but instead brutal hand-to-hand combat that resulted in Indian soldiers succumbing to severe wounds in freezing high-altitude conditions, some almost unbelievable details emerged of the “violent face-off” in the western Himalayas.

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    The Guardian reported that Indian soldiers actually “fell to their deaths” after being knocked off a narrow ridge

    The hand-to-hand combat lasted hours, on steep, jagged terrain, with iron bars, rocks and fists. Neither side carried guns. Most of the soldiers killed in the worst fighting between India and China in 60 years lost their footing or were knocked from the narrow Himalayan ridge, plunging to their deaths.

    Other international reports said that baseball bats spiked with nails and barbed wire were even used in the clash. 

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    Chinese PLA troops training in harsh Himalayan border area conditions, file image.

    At one point it reportedly involved hundreds in close-quarter combat on dangerous, steep terrain

    Reinforcements from the Indian side were summoned from a post about 2 miles away and eventually about 600 men were fighting with stones, iron rods and other makeshift weapons in near-total darkness for up to six hours, Indian government sources said, with most deaths on both sides occurring from soldiers falling or being knocked from mountain terrain.

    At least four more Indian soldiers were said to be in critical condition. Indian media outlets cited intelligence sources claiming up to 50 Chinese soldiers may have been killed in the melee but did not present the evidence. Chinese CCTV’s widely watched evening news broadcast made no mention of the border confrontation on Tuesday.

    Certainly with these numbers, now with an additional build-up of forces on each side said to number in the tens of thousands near the Galwan Valley area of East Ladakh, a new authorization of “shoot to kill” if under threat holds the potential to spark a major battle possibly leading to war between the two nuclear powers.

    Last week top diplomats on both sides called for deescalation, but these latest Indian media reports, and subsequent accusations and anger out of Beijing, aren’t helping matters. 

  • AG Barr Says "Developments" In Durham's FBI Probe May Arrive Before End Of Summer
    AG Barr Says “Developments” In Durham’s FBI Probe May Arrive Before End Of Summer

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 19:50

    Authored by Alex Nitzberg via JustTheNews.com,

    Attorney General Bill Barr during a Fox News interview with Maria Bartiromo said that there soon may be “developments” in Connecticut U.S. Attorney John Durham’s investigation into the origins of the Russia probe.

    “In terms of the future of Durham’s investigation, you know he’s pressing ahead as hard as he can and I expect that you know we will have some developments hopefully before the end of the summer,” Barr said in the interview today.

    Durham’s investigation has slowed as a consequence of the coronavirus crisis, the attorney general said. When Bartiromo asked about a grand jury, Barr declined to divulge whether one has been impaneled.

    “I don’t want to suggest there has been or is a grand jury but it is a fact that there have not been grand juries in virtually all districts for a long period of time and also people have been reluctant to travel for interviews and things like that,” Barr said.

    Durham has “been working where he can on other matters that aren’t affected by the pandemic. But there has been an affect,” Barr noted.

    During the interview Barr expressed concern that mail-in voting is ripe for fraud and could harm public confidence in election integrity.

    “It absolutely opens the floodgates to fraud. Those things are delivered into mailboxes, they can be taken out,” he said. 

    “Right now a foreign country could print up tens of thousands of counterfeit ballots and be very hard for us to detect which was the right and which was the wrong ballot,” he said.

    The attorney general said that “it can upset and undercut the confidence in the integrity of our elections. If anything we should tighten them up right now.”

  • Musk Sells Bel-Air Home To Chinese Billionaire For $12 Million More Than He Paid For It In 2012
    Musk Sells Bel-Air Home To Chinese Billionaire For $12 Million More Than He Paid For It In 2012

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 19:25

    It was just a little more than a month ago that we wrote that Elon Musk claimed he would be selling “almost all” of his physical possessions and had put his houses on the market. 

    Now, he’s found a buyer for his Bel-Air mansion: a Chinese billionaire who seems to be happy forking over $29 million to Musk for the home. The buyer is tied to billionaire William Ding, according to Business Insider, who is the founder and CEO of NetEase.

    Ignoring the fact that it’s odd for Musk to be offloading his assets at the same time Tesla’s valuation is at, or near, all time highs of ~$185 billion, Musk was able to cash out with a $12 million profit on this home (which he bought for $17 million 2012) in the midst of a real estate market that is enduring chaos from both the supply and the demand side as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. 

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    Even stranger was that we took the time to note in our early May writeup that according to Bloomberg: “Fewer buyers were coming from China, Russia and the Middle East amid international tensions, and limits on state and local tax deductions dampened the appeal of owning California homes for wealthy U.S. buyers.” 

    So not only did Musk find himself a buyer from China, he found one that was willing to pay him a $12 million premium on his house to what it cost in 2012.

    Recall, we also noted in 2019 that Musk took out $61 million in mortgages on five of his properties in California. Four of these properties were in the Bel Air neighborhood.

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    The loans were signed off on by Morgan Stanley and represented $50 million in new borrowing for Musk at the time. One loan was a refinancing on a 20,200 plus sq. foot property that Musk purchased in 2012 for $17 million. The initial $10 million loan he took on the property had turned into a $19.5 million debt, with a monthly payment of about $180,000.

  • Bolton: Trump Gave Bibi Green Light For Preemptive Israeli Strike On Iran Nuclear Sites
    Bolton: Trump Gave Bibi Green Light For Preemptive Israeli Strike On Iran Nuclear Sites

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 19:00

    Among the new revelations and interesting tidbits found in John Bolton’s now leaked pre-published edition of “The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir,” is that President Trump was said to be prepared to endorse an Israeli preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.

    In a section which describes the “elusive search” for an Arab-Israeli peace deal, Bolton writes that Trump told him at a moment of increased Israeli concerns over Iran’s nuclear development

    “You tell Bibi that if he uses force, I will back him. I told him that, but you tell him again.”

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    Image via GPO

    Though the significant revelation has barely made a dent in US media, it generated multiple headlines in Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long held out the ‘option’ of a preemptive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities

    But Israel’s political and defense establishment would likely never sign onto such a huge and aggressive military ‘first strike’ action without first securing Washington’s backing. Bolton’s book essentially says Tel Aviv has it under Trump. The former national security adviser even boasted he pushed a ‘military solution’ on Iran.

    This as Israel perceives Iran is bent on developing nukes despite Tehran officials long assuring they are only interested in peaceful nuclear energy development. 

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    In the section, which comes early in the book, Bolton reveals the following conversation with the president at the White House

    “On Iran, I urged that he press ahead to withdraw from the nuclear agreement and explained why the use of force against Iran’s nuclear program might be the only lasting solution. ‘You tell Bibi [Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] that if he uses force, I will back him. I told him that, but you tell him again,’ Trump said, unprompted by me.” 

    More recently Netanyahu has also claimed a ‘green light’ from the US administration to annex parts of the West Bank, including the Jordan Valley.

    In related sections in Bolton’s book, various Syria conversations with Trump and among his security team are revealed, including details of chemical weapons incidents, the Kurds, Russian intervention in Syria, Turkey policy, and ‘Iranian expansion’. Some crucial sections from the book can be seen here compiled at the following Reddit thread.

  • NPR Busted Framing Self-Defense Getaway From Gun-Toting 'Protesters' As Right-Wing Extremist Attack
    NPR Busted Framing Self-Defense Getaway From Gun-Toting ‘Protesters’ As Right-Wing Extremist Attack

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 18:39

    NPR has altered an article after they were busted using a misleading photo of a ‘vehicle ramming’ in Louisville to make the claim that ‘right-wing extremists’ are targeting protesters with cars.

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    Archived photo of original article claiming an increase in ‘right-wing extremist’ vehicle attacks on protesters.

    Here’s what actually happened – the driver of the car, a woman with dreadlocks, was attacked by the ‘peaceful’ protesters, one of whom reportedly pulled a gun on her – and another who was struck as she accelerated to escape:

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    The driver of the vehicle came forward and won’t face charges, while two of the protesters have been arrested.

    The incident near 6th and Liberty streets during the Wednesday morning rush was captured on a real-time crime camera.

    Police said protesters had blocked the intersection, standing in front of the woman’s car with a megaphone.

    During a verbal altercation between the driver and the protesters, someone ripped out one of the driver’s dreadlocks.

    When someone pulled a gun, the driver sped off and struck a protester.

    When she stopped at a red light a block later, someone pointed a gun at her.

    Police said that man was 21-year-old Darius Anderson, who allegedly passed the gun off to 19-year-old Brioanna Richards.

    Both are charged with rioting, disorderly conduct and obstructing a highway. –WAVE3

    NPR deleted their tweet and changed the photo in the article to a 3-year-old image of the Charlottesville vehicle ramming.

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    So – while NPR claims at least ’50 vehicle-ramming incidents’ since late May, and tried to pass off a photo of a victim fleeing a potentially deadly situation, the liberal news network was unable to find a single photo of a recent ramming incident by ‘said extremists.’

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  • After The Lockdowns, Government "Fixes" For The Economy Will Make Things Even Worse
    After The Lockdowns, Government “Fixes” For The Economy Will Make Things Even Worse

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 18:35

    Authored by Anthony Mueller via The Mises Institute,

    While it is relatively easy to predict that the post-corona economy will suffer from high unemployment, the outlook for price inflation is not so certain. On the one hand, there will be high government deficits and more public debt; on the other hand, given the weak economy, consumers and companies may refrain from taking on new debt and could begin to lower their debt burden.

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    Monetary Expansion Doesn’t Always Lead to Price Inflation

    In contrast to common usage, the correct use of the term “inflation” refers to the money supply. Rising prices are not the cause, but the result of monetary expansion. However, not every rise of the money supply turns into price inflation. It can happen that the so-called price level remains stable when there are drastic shifts in the demand for goods and services that impact differently on their prices. The average will be deceiving when rising and falling prices cancel each other out and when certain goods and service vanish from the statistical basket because prices have risen so much that the demand has collapsed.

    Due to the immense disruptions caused by the lockdown of the economy and because of social distancing, fundamental structural changes in business life are going on. More goods and services will be removed from the official price statistics than usual, and for those products that remain in the basket, prices may vary widely.

    Problems with Measures of Price Inflation

    Even more than in the past, the statistics of the price index will send wrong signals about the extent of price inflation. If the prices for some goods rise exorbitantly and, accordingly, there is less demand, they go into the statistical shopping basket with a lower weight, and these goods can drop out completely if they are hardly in demand because they have become too expensive for normal consumers. Even more than in the past, price inflation, measured by the statistical price index, will no longer be a reliable guide for monetary policy—if this has ever been the case.

    Inasmuch as modern central banks follow the policy concept of “inflation targeting,” they will lose a reliable compass. Central bankers set the interest rates as if blindfolded.

    More than in the past, depending on their personal demand structure, each individual will have a price inflation rate that differs from that of their fellow consumers. Different social groups will not only be affected differently by unemployment, but also by the price changes. The so-called price level stability directive is becoming less and less meaningful as an indicator of monetary policy. The same applies to official unemployment numbers. The upheavals that the lockdown has brought about affect the segments of the labor market in different ways. When persons leave the labor market for good, they no longer show up as unemployed.

    As it did with the blow that came with the oil price shock in 1973, the economy after the lockdown confronts stagflation. When stagnation and recession show up together with price inflation, macroeconomic policy has hit the wall. Using Keynes as the guide for fighting the downturn of the economy after the lockdown would give an additional blow to the economy, which has already been weakened by the lockdown. The lockdown of the economy has also severely hurt the global system of supply chains that had been a major source of keeping prices low. Additionally, with the rupture of the trade with China that concerns not only the United States, the impact of cheap goods from overseas that had dampened global price inflation will recede. One of the consequences of more home production instead of global free trade will be higher production costs.

    Monetary authorities have released a huge amount of money in the form of central bank money to mitigate the consequences of the economic slowdown and social isolation. Such a policy has already been implemented in response to the 2008 financial crisis and has been practiced as a so-called quantitative easing.

    QE Forever?

    In response to the 2008 crisis, the assets of the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve System have expanded from $870 billion in August 2007 to $4.5 trillion in early 2015. The later attempts to trim the central bank’s asset sheet only slightly brought down the amount of assets to $3.8 trillion until August 2019, when monetary policy became expansive again. Beginning in September 2019, the assets of the Fed began to rise again, reaching over $4 trillion before an additional big boost due to the lockdown lifted the total assets to over $7 trillion dollars in June 2020.

    The lockdown brought the economies all over the world almost to a standstill and affected production and supply chains. The International Monetary Fund currently expects global production to shrink by 3 percent in 2020. While the US government has refrained from an economic outlook for the rest of 2020 on the grounds that the preview is too uncertain, the Congressional Budget Office predicts a fall in the real GDP of 12 percent during the second quarter and an unemployment rate close to 14 percent.

    In the face of the economic consequences of lockdown, the Fed is about to expand the scope of assets that it may buy. While in the past the range of assets that central banks were able to buy was limited to government bonds, the range of asset categories is in the process of being extended to go beyond public debt titles—not to mention the possibility of direct financing of government spending.

    A Credit Contraction—until the Dam Breaks

    What has happened so far is a steep increase of the money supply in the form of the so-called monetary base. This increase does not necessarily mean that the newly created money will end up in the hands of businesses and consumers. If the demand for credit is low and the commercial banks assume an increased risk of default, or if they are already in a precarious state, they will use the money offered by the central bank as a liquidity cushion instead of lending it. In this way, the commercial bank’s lending capacity exists only as potential and is not yet actually executed.

    This phenomenon of a credit contraction emerged also in the 2008 financial crisis. Despite the massive monetary policy stimulus from the central banks, global price inflation failed to materialize. The base money did not flow into the production economy and the demand for goods, but remained largely in the financial sector and served as a reserve for commercial banks. The most significant effect of the monetary expansion in the wake of the crisis of 2008 was the hefty price increases for bonds and shares.

    Even after the lockdown, the effects of the central bank’s creation of base money over a longer period of time may not show up as lending, thus boosting aggregate demand. However, the current expansionary monetary policy harbors the danger that what has hitherto existed as mere potential could, as it were, become an avalanche overnight that swamps the real economy with liquidity. Until the dam breaks, it may appear to the superficial observer and to large sections of the population that there is nothing to fear and that the heads of the central banks have the situation under control.

    One must fear that the national debt of the United States, which reached 107 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product in 2019, will rise sharply in 2020 and in the years thereafter. Deficit financing goes along with an increase of the money supply. Here, it comes in handy that the so-called modern money theory (MMT) explicitly provides a justification for direct government financing through the government’s own creation of money. Under the MMT model, a country’s central bank would become part of the Treasury. It does not take much effort to explain that following this theory of monetary mismanagement opens the door to hyperinflation and that it will be impossible to close this door once it has been opened.

    The Importance of Sound Economics

    Before the flood breaks loose, the central bank’s money creation may not significantly affect the real economy in terms of production, nor may it drive price inflation right away. A possible scenario could be that the central banks continue following their current policy model of “inflation targeting” and increase the money supply even further under the deception of an apparently “stable” price level. This way, the monetary authorities would ignore the inflationary potential and neglect the risk that hyperinflation exists as a clear and present danger. The monetary potential of price inflation that has accumulated in the past twelve years is so great that control has become unattainable once the avalanche starts.

    Regardless of the differences in their details, the politically influential macroeconomic schools are interventionist. These doctrines are attractive to politicians, because they assume that the market economy is permanently dependent on government control. For these economists, the economy always needs leadership, control, and guidance. By declaring the market economy to be permanently ill, the interventionist economists are taking on the role of scientifically proven saviors. These social engineers then find coveted and highly paid jobs at the central banks and in the various ministries and regulatory bodies.

    Austrian economics has a different perspective. For these thinkers, the economy is dynamically self-regulating. Consumers strive to improve their situation and entrepreneurs are vigilant in pursuit of these needs. In a competitive market, the price system provides control and guidance from consumers. Extensive intervention by the government and its central bank is not only not necessary, but harmful to prosperity.

    More Intervention Will Bring Even More Economic Damage

    Governments—not only in the United States—are about to make the same errors that were made in the 1930s, when economic policies deepened and prolonged the crisis. As Rothbard explained, America’s Great Depression came about because the policymakers encouraged the maintenance of high wage rates and implanted measures to stabilize the price level. They actively fought deflation through direct interventions. Instead of encouraging savings, the political decision-makers tried to stimulate consumption and discourage savings. Instead of promoting laissez-faire, policymakers expanded and deepened interventionism.

    A new round of zero and negative interest rate policies (ZIRP and NIRP) would further deviate the price of financial assets from the fundamentals and sharpen wealth inequality at a time when social tensions have reached a revolutionary degree. What is needed in the face of an economic downturn is not more, but less government spending, and not more, but less monetary and interest rate stimuli.

    The lockdown has resulted in the destruction of capital. The challenge ahead requires rebuilding the capital structure. This requires more savings and investment and less consumption. The government, Rothbard recommends, can only help positively if it lowers “its relative role in the economy, slashing its own expenditures and taxes, particularly taxes that interfere with saving and investment.” Stimulating consumption will prolong the time required to return to a prosperous economy.

    Laissez-faire means freeing the multitude of economic actors from government impediments so that they can actively seek to improve their lives. Not more interventionism, but less taxes, less public debt, less inflation, less bureaucracy, and less regulations will open the way for entrepreneurial creativity and thus for the country’s prosperity. Getting the country out of the slump is not done with more alms, but with more productivity.

    Conclusion

    The lockdown of the economy and the imposition of social isolation have led to large-scale economic disruptions. Not only have jobs been destroyed, capital has also been consumed and the political measures have caused many cracks in the delicate network of the division of labor.

    After the big mistake made with the ineffective lockdown, now another, maybe even larger mistake—not only in the United States but in Europe, too—is being made. The implementation of expansionary economic policies will mean that after the blow of the disease, and the smash of the lockdown, economic life will receive another major hit. More government spending and still lower interest rates will not accelerate the upswing but will paralyze the economy after a short flash in the pan.

    The upcoming challenge requires the reconstruction of the capital structure and the restoration of global cooperation. This objective does not require more consumption but more savings and new investments. In order to overcome the economic impact of the lockdown, the Austrian school of economics recommends the opposite of the official economic policy that is in effect today. Instead of trying to get the economy going again with the futile means of low or negative interest rates, economic policy should provide a policy environment that promotes savings, encourages innovation, and gives room for private initiative.

  • Futures Slide In Early Trading
    Futures Slide In Early Trading

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 18:31

    For once, the spreadbetting estimate of where Dow futs would be on Sunday was correct, and with IG expecting a drop of -230 points several hours ahead of the market open…

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    … that’s precisely what we got at 6pm ET when Dow futs opened down 250, Spoos were -30 and the Naz -80.

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    Why the early encounter with gravitation? Because as Amplify Trading writes, the market still remains wary of a second wave of coronavirus with nationwide cases in the US up 15% in the last two weeks and cases rising in 18 states across the South, West and Midwest, according to the NYT. Over the weekend, new cases in California rose by a record (4,515) and Florida infections up 3.7% from a day earlier, compared with an average increase of 3.5% in the previous seven days.

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    As a reminder, on Friday stocks slumped after Apple said that it will again close almost a dozen stores in the US because of a recent rise in coronavirus infections in the South and West, and although the tech giant can still operate effectively online the move was an ominous sign for brick and mortar retailers across America and a dent to the optimism that the US recovery is in full swing.

    A number of Fed officials also remained cautious with Fed’s Rosengren (non-voter) stating on Friday “this lack of containment could ultimately lead to a need for more prolonged shut-downs, which result in reduced consumption and investment, and higher unemployment”, with Neel Kashkari adding “unfortunately, my base case scenario is that we will see a second wave of the virus across the US, probably this fall.”

    Two other noteworthy developments on the virus come from Germany where the infection rate has shot up to its highest level for weeks after more than 1,300 abattoir employees tested positive for the virus. The country’s R-naught rate soared to 2.88 on Sunday, from 1.06 on Friday. Meanwhile, China blocked some US poultry imports over clusters at Tyson Foods plants.

    What to expect this week

    According to Amplify, one of the most important data sets this week is the latest flash PMI data due on Tuesday. While a rising headline number may give some cheer that confidence is returning the data in itself is forward looking which brings about two interesting points.

    • It could be highly subject to change depending on the developments of a second wave virus (a la Apple on Friday).
    • As analysts at ING note, looking at other data, including Google’s mobility index, the economy still appears to be operating well below its pre-virus level.

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    Finally, here is a calendar of the week’s events courtesy of NewsSquawk

    Monday

    •     Data: EZ Consumer Confidence US Existing Home Sales
    •     Events: China LPR, US & Russian Army Talks; Chinese, Russian & Indian Foreign Minister meeting
    •     Speakers: ECB’s de Guindos & Lane, Fed’s Kashkari, RBA Lowe

    Tuesday

    •     Data: EZ, UK & US PMIs (Flash)
    •     Supply: UK, German & US

    Wednesday

    •     Data: German Ifo
    •     Events: RBNZ Rate Decision, BoJ Summary of Opinions
    •     Speakers: ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Evans & Bullard, EU Commission Draft 2021 Budget presentation
    •     Supply: UK, German & US

    Thursday

    •     Data: German GfK, US Durable Goods, GDP (Final), PCE Prices (Final), Initial Jobless Claims
    •     Speakers: ECB’s Schnabel & Mersch, BoE’s Haldane
    •     Supply: US

    Friday

    •     Data: Japanese CPI, US PCE Price Index, Personal Income & University of Michigan Sentiment (F)
    •     Speakers: ECB’s Schnabel

  • Sisi's 'Declaration Of War' Puts Egypt & Turkey On War Footing Over Libya
    Sisi’s ‘Declaration Of War’ Puts Egypt & Turkey On War Footing Over Libya

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 18:10

    Egypt and Turkey have long been on opposite sides of the raging battle for the fate of Libya, with Turkey providing major military support and backing for the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, and with Egypt backing Gen. Khalifa Haftar.

    The situation escalated over the weekend, amid a pullback of pro-Haftar forces from Tripoli after being defeated in the bid for the capital, when Egypt’s President Sisi announced from an airbase near the Libyan border that the Egyptian Army stands ready to intervene in Libya on behalf of Haftar.

    Sisi declared that if GNA forces attempt to enter Haftar-controlled Sirte, pushing deeper into central Libya, this would be a ‘red line’ for Egypt, forcing it’s intervention.  Crucially both Tripoli and its main ally Turkey on Sunday condemned what they called Sisi’s “declaration of war”.

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    Turkish state media recorded the GNA statement as follows: “This is a hostile act, direct interference, and amounts to a declaration of war” – in condemnation of Sisi’s statements. It added that for the Libyan state, “interference in its internal affairs, attacks on its sovereignty, whether by declarations… like those of the Egyptian president or by support for putschists, militias, and mercenaries, is unacceptable.”

    The heated rhetoric, and with Egypt potentially beefing up forces and military hardware along its border with Libya, has some regional sources saying that Turkey and Egypt are headed for direct war in a rapidly intensifying situation.

    “Now Egypt’s president is signaling possible red lines in Libya,” The Jerusalem Post writes. “This line could keep the Turkish-backed GNA from Sirte and a strategic airfield at Jufra. The country would be split down the middle. Egypt has a massive army, but it is also an army mostly untested on foreign battlefields.”

    Tripoli is now calling on the international community, especially the UN, to step in should Egypt’s army get involved. 

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    Surveying the prospects for major war between Turkey and Egypt over Libya, The Jerusalem Post explains further

    On paper Turkey’s armed forces and Egypt’s are well matched. Both have F-16s and hundreds of fighter aircraft. Egypt’s army is the 9th strongest in the world on paper with thousands of tanks. Turkey’s armed forces are thought to be the 11th strongest in the world. Both countries use western weapons systems linked to the US or NATO. Turkey’s work with NATO likely makes it more effective than Egypt.

    Both countries are bogged down in counter-insurgency campaigns. Egypt is close to Libya and can easily move an armored brigade or troops to the frontline. Turkey would have to fly them in and it likely prefers using Syrian rebel mercenaries to do its dirty work. 

    In short, the Libya situation – a country on fire since Gaddafi’s toppling and death due to the 2011 US-NATO military intervention, or what many have called “Obama’s Iraq” – is set to get a lot messier. 

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    Haftar with President Sisi last year, AFP via Getty.

    There are already unverified reports that Egypt may be sending jets to Haftar airbases in eastern Libya in support of his LNA.

    If so, Turkey will certainly increase its own aerial patrols, which has already involved ample use of drone warfare in and around Tripoli. But no doubt this would give Erdogan greater excuse to get Turkish fighter jets involved.

  • WHO Reports Record Single-Day Jump In Coronavirus Infections Led By Brazil, US: Live Update
    WHO Reports Record Single-Day Jump In Coronavirus Infections Led By Brazil, US: Live Update

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/21/2020 – 17:56

    Summary:

    • WHO reports record single-day jump in cases
    • Brazil tops list, with US second
    • California reports record jump in cases
    • German “R” rate nears 3 as meat processing plant outbreak intensifies
    • Tulsa reports record jump in infections day after Trump rally
    • At least 12 states report 7-day averages at record highs
    • Spain lifts restrictions on tourism as economy reopens
    • South Korea bars travelers from Pakistan, Bangladesh

    * * *

    Update (1740ET): Building on Dr. Tedros’s warning that the global outbreak was “accelerating”, the WHO has reported the largest single-day increase in virus infections by its count, at more than 183,000 new cases in the last 24 hours. Brazil saw the biggest spike, contributing a stunning 54,771 cases, a new record daily total for any country, eclipsing the record 49k daily total reported out of the US back in April. With daily totals at or near record highs in more than a dozen states, the US was the second-largest contributor with 36,617.

    Since the outbreak began, the WHO has counted a total of 8,708,008 cases and 461,715 deaths worldwide, with a daily increase of 4,743 deaths in the past day (which is, thankfully, well below the peak level from April). However, more than two-thirds of these new deaths were reported in the Americas.

    In other news, Mexico hit a new record with 50% of the cases tested in the last 24 hours coming back positive as Mexico has become the second-worst outbreak in Latin America.

    As we noted a day ago, Germany’s reproduction rate has been on the rise in the past few weeks. After ticking slightly higher during the opening weeks of Germany’s reopening, the reproduction rate – known as “R0” or just “R” – a critical metric aiming to measure the average number of infections caused by each carrier, which is representative of the virus’s rate of spread. The 7-day average rate for “R”, which is a critical metric in the eyes of Germany’s public health officials at the Robert Koch Institute, climbed to 2.88 on Sunday after a daily reading of 2.03 on Sunday. The RKI stressed that the increases were mainly due to local outbreaks in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, where more than 1,300 meat processing plant workers tested positive in what has been one of the country’s biggest clusters.

    As we noted earlier, California’s new cases rose by a record on Sunday and Florida infections jumped more than the weekly average, though not quite surpassing the record daily total set yesterday, the latest evidence of a possible resurgence in the sun belt states as the number of cases reported in the US increased by 1.2% on Sunday to 2,275,000.

    * * *

    Update (1400ET): After reporting another record total yesterday during the hours before President Trump’s campaign rally began, public health officials in Tulsa said Sunday that the city had reported another record jump in new cases.

    Of course, it’s probably too early for them to be tied to last night’s rally…

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    Source: NYT

    …plus, cases in the area had already been on the rise, which is why the city’s mayor wasn’t exactly thrilled about the president’s decision.

    Meanwhile, California – one of 12 states that saw its 7-day average hit a new record high over the past week, per NYT – reported another record jump in new cases on Sunday, with 4,515 new cases, and 71 new deaths. That’s compared with 3,932 cases and 67 deaths yesterday.

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    Source: NYT

    The new numbers brought the statewide total north of 175k.

    * * *

    With only a few more hours to go until US equity futures open on Sunday night, it appears the dire situation across the American south and West has gone from bad to worse. According to a Washington Post tally of coronavirus data released by each state on Saturday, 8 states on Saturday reported their highest single-day case counts since the pandemic began, and the pan-US tally of new infections surpassed 30,000 for the second straight day (both Friday and Saturday). The US hasn’t regularly reported 30k COVID-19 cases a day in seven weeks. And while New York and the surrounding states that caught the brunt of the outbreak – or the first wave, at least – haven’t seen the feared upsurge in new cases.

    States across the South and West, including Florida, Texas, Georgia, South Carolina, Utah, Washington, Nevada and Missouri, set records for single-day confirmed cases, and 13 states set new highs for their 7-day averages.

    On Sunday, Florida reported another 3,494 new cases, bringing the statewide total to 97,291. Though Sunday’s number broke a streak of daily records, it is still well above the 7-day average seen in recent weeks, leaving the state on track to pass the 100k case mark tomorrow.

    Florida would become the 7th state to pass 100k behind New York, California, New Jersey, Illinois, Texas, Massachusetts.

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    Source: NYT

    According to the NYT, 22 states were listed under the “increasing” tab of its coronavirus tracker.

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    Furthermore, while the Washington Post reported that the first iterations of the COVID-19 tests distributed nationwide in March and April by the CDC were so inaccurate as to be practically useless, a chorus of Democratic critics led by Joe Biden has spoken out against President Trump over a remark he made during last night’s rally in Tulsa, when he suggested that he pressed the CDC to hold back on the testing during the early days of the outbreak.

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    Even if Trump was telling the truth (the president, of course, has a widely acknowledged tendency to exaggerate when speaking extemporaneously at these rallies), a surge in testing during the early days of the outbreak may have only created more confusion. But many of the president’s Democratic critics claimed Trump’s remarks further cemented the notion that he put the economy before safeguarding the lives of the most vulnerable Americans.

    “The President said tonight that he slowed down testing so the public death toll wouldn’t be worse,” Elizabeth Warren tweeted. “We still don’t have a national testing strategy & Trump’s plan is to bury his head. This is a deadly failure.”

    Outside of the US, Spain officially entered the next phase of its reopening plan on Sunday, which included allowing tourists from most of Europe, but warning that social distancing  measures must be followed to avoid a second wave. Speaking just before the three-month-old measures expired at midnight Saturday, Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez asked the country to keep its guard up.

    “We will leave behind the state of alarm and we will enter the new normality…our economy is starting to beat. We are in a situation where we can move forward. We can’t drop our guard,” he reportedly said.

    After finally wrestling a surprisingly virulent outbreak under control, Saudi Arabia on Sunday removed curfews and other restrictions imposed to fight its spread after 73 days of w relatively restrictive lockdown that also kept millions of Muslim pilgrims out of the Holy Cities as pilgrimmages were put on hold.

    Over in East Asia, South Korea reported 48 new cases of the virus, 8 of which were imported, half from Bangladesh and half from Pakistan. In response, South Korea announced Saturday that it would restrict travel from both countries.

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Today’s News 21st June 2020

  • The 1793 Project Unmasked
    The 1793 Project Unmasked

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Robby Soave via Reason.com,

    Anyone who still doubts that woke progressives can pose a material threat to the pursuit of truth should consider the case of David Shor. A week ago, as protests over the unjust police killing of George Floyd took place in major cities across the country, Shor—a 28-year-old political scientist at the Democratic consulting firm Civic Analytics—tweeted some observations about the successes and failures of various movements. He shared research by Princeton University’s Omar Wasow, who has found that violent protests often backfire whereas nonviolent protests are far more likely to succeed. The impulse behind Shor’s tweet was a perfectly liberal one: He feels progressive reforms are more palatable to the public when protesters eschew violence.

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    But many progressive activists on social media didn’t care whether the impulse was liberal, or even whether it reflected reality. They denounced Shor as a racist for daring to scrutinize the protesters, even if his aim was to make them more effective. One activist accused Shor of using his “anxiety and ‘intellect’ as a vehicle for anti-blackness.” Then she tagged Civis Analytics, and invited the company to “come get your boy.”

    Get him, they did. Civic Analytics promptly fired Shor.

    Liberal writer Jonathan Chait blames Shor’s firing on “the spread of distinct, illiberal norms throughout some progressive institutions over the last half-dozen years.” Chait knows what he’s talking about: In 2015, he wrote an influential New York article titled “Not a Very P.C. Thing to Say: How the language police are perverting liberalism.” Chait defined political correctness as “a style of politics in which the more radical members of the left attempt to regulate political discourse by defining opposing views as bigoted and illegitimate,” and he arged that “the new p.c. has attained an influence over mainstream journalism and commentary beyond that of the old.”

    To understand why the “new p.c.” attained that influence, it’s necessary to revisit another influential magazine article from the same year: “The Coddling of the American Mind,” an Atlantic essay penned by the social scientist Jonathan Haidt and the civil libertarian attorney Greg Lukianoff. Their article was later expanded into a book, in which Haidt and Lukianoff blamed an increase in “safetyism“—an impulse to be sheltered not just from physical harm but emotional turmoil—for some of the new hostility to free speech. Their thinking has deeply informed my own writings about the censorious streak in campus activism: In my decade or so of covering higher education, I’ve reported hundreds of examples of progressive students citing their personal sense of safety as the reason they were demanding that punitive actions be taken against some other individual or entity that had offended them.

    While some critics have dismissed the idea that the antics of safety-obsessed college students matter very much to the broader culture, I’ve long warned that the small number—proportionally speaking—of young people inclined toward these tactics could do serious damage elsewhere. As I wrote in my book Panic Attack, “It’s not impossible to imagine the same kind of thing happening in the workplace: picture a boss who is afraid to reprimand negligent young employees out of concern that they will say their PTSD is triggered.”

    Recent events at The New York Times are an almost perfect demonstration of how this is playing out. Staffers angry about an op-ed by Sen. Tom Cotton (R–Ark.) claimed that its publication threatened their very lives. They specifically chose “running this puts black Times staff in danger” as their mantra because it invokes workplace safety. When the authority figure—the boss, the principal, the government—is responsible for ensuring safety, and safety is broadly defined as not merely protection from literal physical violence but also the fostering of emotional comfort, norms of classical liberalism will suffer. (One activist told me that for him, safety requires other people to affirm him.) The Times conflict ended with opinion page chief James Bennet out of his job.

    He’s not the only one. UCLA recently suspended a lecturer, Gordon Klein, after he declined a demand that he make a final exam “no-harm”—that is, it could only boost grades—for students of color traumatized by the events in Minneapolis. Klein refused, in accordance with guidance from UCLA’s administration not to give students much leeway on exams. In response, the activists launched a change.org petition to get Klein fired, and the school suspended him. His irritated reply to the activists—that he would not give preferential exam treatment to students because of their skin color—has prompted UCLA to investigate him for racial discrimination.

    University of Chicago economist Harald Uhlig, who had the temerity to criticize some of the more radical demands the protesters have made, is now being pressured to resign as editor of the school’s Journal of Political Economy. In this case, it’s not random students doing the pressuring, but some of the biggest names in economics: New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, University of Michigan professor Justin Wolfers, and even former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, who told the Times that “it would be appropriate for the University of Chicago, which is the publisher of the Journal of Political Economy, to review Uhlig’s performance and suitability to continue as editor.”

    The Times article is a master class in guilt-by-insinuation. The authors could not find a single fact to support the notion that Uhlig is a racist or that he has used his position to thwart black scholars. But he holds some views that would be in conflict with the more progressive Black Lives Matter protesters—he doesn’t approve of rioting, and he criticized NFL players for kneeling—and that apparently is suspicious enough.

    Chait’s piece on Shor includes another, equally powerful example: Intercept journalist Lee Fang, a man of the left by any measure, was denounced as a racist and publicly shamed by a colleague for daring to interview a black protester who criticized violent tactics. The colleague

    called him racist in a pair of tweets, the first of which alone received more than 30,000 likes and 5,000 retweets.

    A journalist friend of Fang’s told me he felt his career was in jeopardy, having been tried and convicted in a court of his peers. He was losing sleep for days and unsure how to respond. “All of us were trying to protect his job and clear his name and also not bow to a mob informed by an attitude that views that you disagree with are tantamount to workplace harassment.”

    The outcome of this confrontation was swift and one-sided: Two days later, Fang was forced to post a lengthy apology.

    Fang was plainly terrified, and not unreasonably fearful of losing his job and being branded a racist forever. The Volokh Conspiracy‘s David Bernstein called Fang’s forced apology “Maoist-style.” It’s a hyperbolic analogy, referencing the infamous “struggle sessions” of Mao Zedong’s totalitarian communism regime. Thankfully, the dissenters from woke orthodoxy are not being tortured or executed for wrongthink. But they do face tremendous pressure to avoid saying anything that might provoke an online mob, or an illiberal colleague, or an activist with different priorities—even if that thing they want to say is plainly true.

    This new reality has important social consequences: for the individuals caught in the crosshairs, but also the institutions attempting to navigate these very treacherous waters.

    Given that so many cancellations hinge on the accusation that safety is being undermined, I would suggest a different metaphor than Mao.

    Mine is no less hyperbolic, but it puts the focus where my reporting—and Haidt and Lukianoff’s research—suggest it should be.

    In 1793, the Committee of Public Safety took charge of the French Revolution on a promise to “make terror the order of the day.” Evidence-free show trials and ideological purges followed, consistent with the radical leaders’ belief that public safety requires public terror.

    Needless to say, critics of today’s radicals do not live in terror of being sentenced to the guillotine. But losing employment and social standing is no small matter. Having a job is usually connected to having health care and economic security: the ability to afford food, housing, and medicine. While some people weather and overcome their cancellation—even profiting from it—others aren’t so lucky. We hear a lot about the cases where things worked out eventually (this Olivia Nuzzi piece is a must-read), but many cases never produce a sympathetic backlash that aids the cancelled. And being shamed online by thousands of people over a trivial offense is an unpleasant and exhausting experience, even if it doesn’t permanently impact your employment.

    This is not to say that every person being cancelled at the moment is a martyr for the cause of free speech. Los Angeles magazine has a list of the recently cancelled. Several were accused of fostering unpleasant work environments. Were they guilty? Maybe so. Recentlty ousted Bon Apetit editor-in-chief Adam Rappaport, for instance, seems like an unpleasant person to work for. Food writer Alison Roman, on the other hand, was dragged on social media for 1) daring to criticize Chrissy Teigen, and 2) wearing an offensive Halloween costume more than a dozen years ago. The photo of Roman was circulated on Twitter by the journalist Yashar Ali, a friend of Teigen with a history of fiercely defending her. Ali claimed the costume was intended as a “chola” stereotype of Mexican-Americans; Roman countered that she was dressed up as Amy Winehouse. Ali deleted his tweet but said he thought it was fair game because Roman had a history of “being called out for appropriation.” (Twitter users immediately dug up a photo of Teigen in a culturally appropriative Halloween costume.)

    Ironically, the same subset of people ostensibly exercised about emotional safety – the woke left – seem frequently inclined to level unsubstantiated accusations that inflict emotional harm. This makes it difficult to believe that these Twitter warriors’ true aim is the promotion of psychological comfort. Did any of them consider Uhlig’s mental health after the man was baselessly accused? Does anyone care about Roman, who probably did not expect her enemies to ransack her Myspace page for evidence of racism and then pillory her for a photo taken when she was 23? What about Shor, thrown to the wolves for making a reasonable objection to what one wing of the protesters was doing?

    That sounds like terror, not safety. Call it the 1793 Project.

  • When Will Life Return To Normal?
    When Will Life Return To Normal?

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 23:00

    From battles on the front lines to social distancing from friends and family, COVID-19 has caused a massive shake-up of our daily lives.

    After second-guessing everything from hugging our loved ones to delaying travel, Visual Capitalist’s Iman Ghosh notes that there is one big question that everyone is likely thinking about: will we ever get back to the status quo? The answer may not be very clear-cut.

    Today’s graphic uses data from New York Times’ interviews of 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists from the U.S. and Canada, and visualizes their opinions on when they might expect to resume a range of typical activities.

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    Life in the Near Future, According to Experts

    Specifically, this group of epidemiologists were asked when they might personally begin engaging in 20 common daily activities again.

    The responses, based on the latest publicly available and scientifically-backed data, varied based on assumptions around local pandemic response plans. The experts also noted that their answers would change depending on potential treatments and testing rates in their local areas.

    Here are the activities that a majority of professionals see starting up as soon as this summer, or within a year’s time:

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    The urge to be outdoors is pretty clear, with 56% of those surveyed hoping to take a road trip before the summer is over. Meanwhile, 31% felt that they would be able to go hiking or have a picnic with friends this summer, citing the need for “fresh air, sun, socialization and a healthy activity” to help keep on top of their physical and mental health during this time.

    Public transport and travel of any form is one aspect that has been put on hold, whether it’s by plane, train, or automobile. Many of the surveyed epidemiologists also lamented the strain the pandemic has had on relationships, as evidenced by the social situations they hope to restart sooner rather than later.

    The worst casualty of the epidemic is the loss of human contact.

    – Eduardo Franco, McGill University

    On the other hand, there are certain activities that they considered too risky to engage in for the time-being. A large share are putting off attending celebrations such as weddings or concerts for at least a year or more, out of perceived social responsibility.

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    Perhaps the most surprising finding is that 6% of epidemiologists do not expect to ever hug or shake hands as a post-pandemic greeting. On top of this, over half consider masks necessary for at least the next year.

    The Virus Sets the Timeline

    Of course, these estimates are not meant to represent every situation. The experts also practically considered whether certain activities were avoidable or not—such as one’s occupation—which affects individual risk levels.

    The answers [about resuming these activities] have nothing to do with calendar time.

    – Kristi McClamroch, University at Albany

    While many places are trickling out of lockdown and re-opening to support the economy, some officials are still warning against prematurely lifting restrictions before we fully have a handle on the virus and its spread.

  • Crimes Against Common Sense
    Crimes Against Common Sense

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 22:30

    Authored by Diane Dimond, op-ed via The Epoch Times,

    What the hell is going on in this country? When did we, the majority, stop speaking up for ourselves? Crimes against common sense seem to happen every week, yet most of us stay silent.

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    Or is it that the media only highlights those who scream the loudest, leaving the impression that what they demand must be implemented?

    The most vocal citizens today are the self-righteous members of the so-called woke pack. You know, those who see themselves as the arbiters of all social and racial justice, and if you don’t believe as they do, you are the enemy.

    The ideals of critical thinkers seem to go virtually unremarked upon.

    So, I ask here, since when did it become acceptable for politicians to order police to abandon their station and allow demonstrators—some armed with guns—to occupy square blocks of an American city? Seattle’s mayor has explained away her occupying force as a “summer of love protest” group.

    Does no one worry that this takeover of downtown Seattle might end badly or spread to other cities?

    It is every citizen’s constitutional right to assemble and peacefully protest. But who in their right mind thought joining those recent, massive street demonstrations in the midst of a life-threatening pandemic was a wise idea? And now that we see a rise of COVID-19 cases in several states, many of the woke, bizarrely, point the finger of blame at opposition party politicians for not halting the spread of the disease.

    Do we lack the common sense to see the coronavirus spike is our own doing?

    The “cancel culture” that exists today pushes aside all clear thinkers who dare express an opinion or ask a clarifying question. “All white people are racist. … The rich are criminals. … All police are bad,” they say. Even television cops are to be condemned. TV producers of “Live PD” and “Cops” crumbled to demands and canceled their programs. The main police-dog character on the kid’s cartoon “Paw Patrol” was targeted for elimination.

    Think of the negative effect all this anti-cop fervor will have on both children and future police recruiting.

    But if you disagree with these new revolutionaries, who are determined to make the rest of us bend to their beliefs, you are bitterly attacked and ostracized.

    Author J.K. Rowling of “Harry Potter” fame nearly fell victim to the cancel culture squad recently when she chided a headline that read, “People Who Menstruate.” She accurately pointed out that it is women who menstruate. Well, that brought howls of condemnation from the LGBTQ community and reminders that some people who have transitioned from female to male still have a monthly reminder of their assigned birth sex.

    Since when does a tiny minority of a population get to decide how the rest of us think or express ourselves? Isn’t their hyperbolic response to contrary views exactly like the bullying they so frequently rail against?

    And, OK, I will ask: Why isn’t it OK to stand up for all humanity and state the obvious that “all lives matter”? That statement does not denigrate black lives; rather, it places black lives on the same high platform as all others. I am weary of the word play and the twisted meanings given to innocent statements.

    And, finally, let’s consider the recent move to destroy our history, as if it, too, could or should be erased. Protestors have demanded countless statues of Civil War leaders—including the emancipation president, Abraham Lincoln—be removed. Likewise for monuments depicting conquistadors who colonized the American west. Did some of those historical figures act in ways we consider abhorrent today? Absolutely, but pretending history didn’t happen is to bury our heads.

    If you follow their line of thinking, we should stop teaching students about World Wars I and II because atrocities took place. The horrors of Hitler’s pogrom against Jews should never be mentioned. The Vietnam War, the civil rights struggle of the ’60s and Kent State all had decidedly ugly aspects. Do we ignore those events because remembering might make someone uncomfortable?

    Students of this country’s history know the shortcomings of our system. Nothing is perfect, and adjustments are underway. But considering radical ideas like disbanding law enforcement, criminal takeovers of inner cities and controlling others’ conversations is just plain foolish.

  • Nearly Half Of Americans Consider Selling Home As COVID Crushes Finances
    Nearly Half Of Americans Consider Selling Home As COVID Crushes Finances

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 22:00

    As the virus pandemic has metastasized into an economic downturn, tens of millions of Americans have lost their jobs and are struggling to service mortgage payments.

    New research offers a glimpse into struggling households, discovers out of the 2,000 American homeowners polled, over half (52%) of respondents say they’re routinely worried about making future mortgage payments and nearly half (47%) considered selling their home because of the inability to service mortgage payments. 

    The study, conducted by OnePoll and the National Association of Realtors, determined 81% of respondents had experienced unexpected financial stress due to the virus-induced recession. Over half (56%) reduced spending so they could service mortgage payments.

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    Since mid-March, or about the time when the lockdowns began, nearly half (47%) of homeowners have explored alternative ways of making money. About two-thirds of respondents (64%) started side projects, while 53% sold valuables to supplement income. 

    “The swift and unprecedented impact of COVID-19 left many people in a financial emergency, and we want to make sure struggling homeowners know they have relief options, especially during Homeownership Month,” said the National Association of Realtors President Vince Malta.

    “Realtors and lenders can identify programs and aid designed to help meet loan obligations. Acting quickly may help homeowners stay in their homes and keep the money they have already invested into it,” Malta said. 

    From clothing (71%) and take-out (66%) to streaming TV services (46%) and groceries (45%), respondents said their spending habits had been significantly reduced so they could service mortgage payments. 

    In a separate report, more than 4 million homeowners are in mortgage forbearance plan – representing 7.54% of all mortgages, delinquencies are set to surpass the great recession, which peaked at 10%. 

    Oxford Economics said 15% of homeowners would fall behind on their monthly mortgage payments in a ‘tidal wave’ of delinquencies, which was similar to the prediction by Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, who said that as many as 30% of Americans with home loans – or around 15 million households, may stop paying if the US economy remains closed through the summer or beyond.

    Google search “sell home” rose during lockdowns. 

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    All of this says a lot about the economy: households are struggling, they cant afford real estate, consumption will remain low, as the prospects of a V-shaped recovery this year continue to wane

  • Leaked Documents Reveal Right-Wing Oligarch Plot To Overthrow Mexico's AMLO
    Leaked Documents Reveal Right-Wing Oligarch Plot To Overthrow Mexico's AMLO

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 21:30

    Authored by Ben Norton via TheGrayZone.com,

    Mexico’s oligarchs and establishment political parties have united in a secret alliance to try to remove left-wing President López Obrador from power, with help from the media, Washington, and Wall Street. Leaked documents lay out their devious strategy.

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    Some of the most powerful forces in Mexico are uniting in a campaign to try to topple the country’s first left-wing president in decades, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. And they apparently have support in Washington and on Wall Street.

    Known popularly as AMLO, the Mexican leader is a progressive nationalist who campaigned on the promise to “end the dark night of neoliberalism.” He has since implemented a revolutionary vision he calls the “Fourth Transformation,” vowing to fight poverty, corruption, and drug violence — and has increasingly butted heads with his nation’s wealthy elites.

    López Obrador has also posed a challenge to the US foreign-policy consensus. His government provided refuge to Bolivia’s elected socialist President Evo Morales and to members of Evo’s political party who were exiled after a Trump administration-backed military coup.

    AMLO also held a historic meeting with Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel, and even stated Mexico would be willing to break the unilateral US blockade of Venezuela and sell the besieged Chavista government gasoline.

    These policies have earned AMLO the wrath of oligarchs both inside and outside of his country. On June 18, the US government ratcheted up its pressure on Mexico, targeting companies and individuals with sanctions for allegedly providing water to Venezuela, as part of an oil-for-food humanitarian agreement.

    The value of the Mexican peso immediately dropped by 2 percent following the Trump administration’s imposition of sanctions.

    These opening salvos of Washington’s economic war on its southern neighbor came just days after López Obrador delivered a bombshell press conference, in which he revealed that the political parties that had dominated Mexican politics for the decades before him have secretly unified in a plot to try to oust the president, years before his democratic mandate ends in 2024.

    The forces trying to remove AMLO from power include major media networks, massive corporations, sitting governors and mayors, former presidents, and influential business leaders. According to a leaked document, they call themselves the Broad Opposition Block (Bloque Opositor Amplio, or BOA).

    And they say they have lobbyists in Washington, financial investors on Wall Street, and major news publications and journalists from both domestic and foreign media outlets on their team.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    ‘Broad Opposition Block’ BOA plot to demonize AMLO with media propaganda

    In a press conference on June 9, the Mexican government published a leaked strategy document purportedly drafted by the Broad Opposition Block, titled “Let’s Rescue Mexico” (Rescatemos a México). The AMLO administration said it did not know the origin of the leak.

    These pages consist of an executive summary of “Project BOA,” outlining what it calls a “plan of action” – a blueprint of concrete steps the opposition alliance will take to unseat AMLO.

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    The cover of the leaked document, the executive summary of the Project BOA plan, “Let’s Save Mexico”

    One of the key points in the plan is the following: “Lobbying by the BOA in Washington (White House and Capital Hill) to stress the damage that the government of the [Fourth Transformation] is doing to North American investors.”

    The lobbying strategy depends heavily on turning the US against AMLO: “More than comparing it with Venezuela,” the document reads, “BOA should highlight the very high mass migration of Mexicans toward the United States if the crisis of unemployment and insecurity gets worse.”

    Then the BOA adds: “Repeat this narrative in the US and European media.”

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    The section of the BOA plan on lobbying in Washington and using the media to push anti-AMLO messaging

    The leaked pages say that BOA has the “international press (USA and Europe)” on its side, along with “foreign correspondents in Mexico.”

    The document even names specific media outlets, along with individual journalists and social media influencers, who could help spread their anti-AMLO propaganda. On the list are some of the top news publications in Mexico: Nexos, Proceso, Reforma, El Universal, Milenio, El Financiero, and El Economista.

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    The list of sympathetic anti-AMLO media outlets and journalists in the BOA document

    The “plan of action” makes it clear that this powerful opposition alliance seeks to use its extensive control over the media to obsessively blame AMLO for “unemployment, poverty, insecurity, and corruption” in Mexico.

    BOA even states unambiguously in its plan that it will use “groups of social media networks, influencers, and analysts to insist on the destruction of the economy, of the democratic institutions, and the political authoritarianism of the government of the 4T” (using an acronym for the Fourth Transformation process).

    This makes it especially ironic that the BOA document reluctantly acknowledges that the López Obrador “government has managed to mitigate the economic impact of the health crisis of coronavirus by giving large amounts of public money to the affected, through social programs.”

    The leaked pages likewise admit that AMLO has an approval rating of more than 50 percent — lower than his peak at 86 percent support in the beginning of 2019 or his 72 percent at the end of the year, but still impressive for a region where US-backed leaders like Chile’s Sebastián Piñera or Colombia’s Iván Duque have routinely enjoyed approval ratings of 6 percent and 24 percent, respectively.

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    Mexico’s establishment political parties and former presidents unite to oust AMLO

    With backing from the US government and utter dominance of media narratives, the Broad Opposition Block plan is to unite all of Mexico’s establishment political parties.

    Together, these parties could potentially run candidates under the BOA umbrella, according to the document. Their goal would be, in the 2021 legislative elections, to end the majority that AMLO’s left-wing party Morena won in Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies.

    After that, BOA states clearly that it plans to block reforms in the Mexican legislature, and ultimately impeach President López Obrador by 2022 — at least two years before his term ends.

    Quite revealing is that the “Let’s Rescue Mexico” document does not mention anything about average working-class Mexicans and their participation in the political process. Nor does it acknowledge the existence of labor unions or grassroots activist organizations, which make up the base of AMLO’s movement and his Morena party.

    This is not surprising, considering the BOA alliance lists some of the most powerful figures in the Mexican ruling class.

    All the major political parties are included: the right-wing National Action Party (Partido Acción Nacional, or PAN), the center-right Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional, or PRI), the centrist Citizens’ Movement (Movimiento Ciudadano, or MC), and even AMLO’s former Party of the Democratic Revolution (Partido de la Revolución Democrática, or PRD).

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    The list of political parties included in the BOA document

    BOA also includes the new political party México Libre, a vehicle for former right-wing President Felipe Calderón, a major ally of George W. Bush who declared a catastrophic “war on drugs” in Mexico, leading to tens of thousands of deaths.

    Along with Calderón, BOA lists former President Vicente Fox, another right-wing US ally, as a coalition ally. Fox worked closely with the Bush administration during his term as president to isolate the leftist governments in Latin America, and even tried to undemocratically remove AMLO as mayor of Mexico City and ban him from running for president.

    BOA also says it has support from the governors of 14 states in Mexico, along with opposition lawmakers in both the Senate and Chamber of Deputies, judges from the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary (TEPJF), and officials from the National Electoral Institute (INE).

    Wall Street investors and Mexican oligarchs back anti-AMLO alliance

    Joining the entire Mexican political establishment in the Broad Opposition Block is a powerful financial oligarchy, both domestic and foreign.

    Along with its “anti-4T lobbyists in Washington,” the leaked document says BOA has “Wall Street investment funds” behind it.

    BOA adds that it is supported by “corporations linked to T-MEC,” using the Spanish acronym for the new “United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement” free-trade deal, known popularly as NAFTA 2.0.

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    The powerful business groups and corporations listed in the BOA document

    Some of the richest capitalists in Mexico are associated with BOA. Named in the leaked document is the Mexican corporate behemoth FEMSA and oligarchs from its associated Monterrey Group, which the New York Times once described as a “a tightly knit family of wealthy and conservative businessmen.”

    The BOA pages also point to Mexico’s powerful Business Coordinating Council (Consejo Coordinador Empresarial) and Employers Confederation of the Mexican Republic (Coparmex) as allies.

    Opposition denies involvement in BOA, while turning up heat on AMLO

    In the days after López Obrador’s press conference exposing the Broad Opposition Block, some of the prominent figures implicated in the alliance, such Felipe Calderón, denied involvement.

    Some of these political and economic elites even claimed BOA doesn’t exist, seeking to cast doubt on the president’s scandalous revelation and accusing him of fabricating the scandal.

    But their efforts are clearly part of a larger campaign by Mexican opposition groups to remove President Andrés Manuel López Obrador from power. As AMLO’s Fourth Transformation moves forward, their destabilization tactics have grown increasingly extreme.

    López Obrador himself has warned of the radicalization of the right-wing opposition. As The Grayzone previously reported, the president made an ominous reference to the threat of a potential coup in November 2019.

    Referencing Mexico’s former President Francisco Madero, a leader of the Mexican Revolution and fellow left-winger who was assassinated in 1913, AMLO tweeted, “How wrong the conservatives and their hawks are… Now is different… Another coup d’état won’t be allowed.”

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    The next part in this investigative series by The Grayzone will show how far-right forces in Mexico are pushing for a coup against AMLO.

  • "A Staggering Number": Over $18 Trillion In Global Stimulus In 2020, 21% Of World GDP
    "A Staggering Number": Over $18 Trillion In Global Stimulus In 2020, 21% Of World GDP

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 21:00

    On Friday, we relayed the latest observations from BofA chief investment officer, Michael Hartnett who concluded that there is just one bull market to short – namely credit – “and the Fed won’t let you” by which he means all central banks. As the following table shows, the balance sheet of the G-6 central banks has exploded, with the Fed’s total asset expected to double in 2020 amid an avalanche of money printing.

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    And visually:

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    Of course, it’s not just central banks: as Hartnett also explained there is also the 2020 fiscal bazooka which has a way to go, with the massive fiscal stimulus unleashed post-covid taking 3 forms in 2020: spending, credit guarantees, loans & equity.

    Hartnett also noted that according to BIS data, US & Australia lead spending (>10% GDP), Europe is using aggressive credit guarantees (e.g. Italy 32% GDP), while Japan/Korea are stimulating via government loans/equity injections.

    But the most staggering fact was when one puts it all together.

    According to BofA calculations, in addition to the record 134 rate cuts YTD, the amount of total global stimulus, both fiscal and monetary, is now a “staggering” $18.4 trillion in 2020 consisting of $10.4 trillion in fiscal stimulus and $7.9tn in monetary stimulus – for a grand total of 20.8% of global GDP, injected mostly in just the past 3 months!

    And to think none of this would have been possible if officials had not collectively decided to shutdown the global economy in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

    For the interested, here is a full breakdown of all the fiscal and monetary stimulus as compiled by BofA:

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  • Another 8-Year-Old 'Criminal Mastermind' Arrested
    Another 8-Year-Old 'Criminal Mastermind' Arrested

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 20:30

    Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

    Are you ready for this week’s absurdity? Here’s our weekend roll-up of the most ridiculous stories from around the world that are threats to your liberty, risks to your prosperity… and on occasion, inspiring poetic justice.

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    Eight year old boy arrested for asking if he could buy candy with fake money

    At a parade in Switzerland, fake money was thrown around for children to collect.

    The obviously fake cash is called “spirit money.” Featuring Chinese symbols, it is meant as an offering to the dead so they can prosper in the afterlife.

    An eight year old Swiss boy later asked a shop clerk if he could use the play money to buy candy. To be clear, the kid did not try to trick the shopkeeper, or pass off the money as real.

    A normal person would laugh, and politely explain that only central banks are allowed to use fake money.

    Instead, this shopkeeper opted to call the police.

    Again, a reasonable officer could have stopped it all there.

    Instead, the boy and his ten year old brother were taken to the police station. Police took their mugshots, but did not charge them with a crime.

    Police did however search the family’s home, where police found some other play money.

    These cops essentially confiscated Monopoly money, as if they were busting a counterfeiting operation.

    Click here to read the full story.

    *  *  *

    Police called over BB-gun in background during virtual class

    Due to Covid-19 lockdowns, plenty of schools have been holding virtual video classes.

    In one class, someone on the call took a picture of an 11 year old boy’s screen. It showed him in his bedroom with a BB gun in the background.

    This anonymous snitch told the Principal, who compared this to bringing a weapon to school.

    Yeah that makes sense– because a Boy Scout with a BB gun in his room is totally the same thing as a school shooter.

    Then the school administration became involved, and alerted the police department.

    Police went to the family’s home to search for an unsecured weapon.

    If there is any silver lining to this story it’s that police concluded no laws had been broken, and left.

    Just a reminder to be wary who you might be inviting into your child’s bedroom.

    And if you’re already a member of our premium service Sovereign Man: Confidential, this might be a good time to check out our recent alert about homeschooling.

    Click here to read the full story.

    *  *  *

    Hertz admits its stock is worthless, as it planned to sell half a billion dollars of new shares

    The rental car company Hertz is going through bankruptcy.

    But Hertz announced Monday in an SEC filing that the company would sell an additional $500 million worth of new shares. And the bankruptcy judge in the case approved!

    Hertz then openly admitted that the stock would almost certainly soon be worthless. That’s because as Hertz goes through bankruptcy, senior debt holders will be paid back before the common stockholders.

    But that hasn’t stopped people from buying the worthless stock, apparently hoping to “buy the dip”.

    But after the plan received a little too much attention– and questions from the SEC– Hertz decided to drop the plan.

    Click here to read the full story.

    *  *  *

    US National debt increased by nearly $1 trillion in the last month

    In the past 30 days, the United States national debt has increased by nearly $1 trillion– screaming past $26.2 trillion total, or 128% of GDP.

    That means the US government is borrowing over $23 million per MINUTE.

    But that’s just the last 30 days. The US government has gone nearly $3 trillion further into debt since March 1.

    That is over $9,000 for every man, woman, and child living in the United States. And all you received was a $1200 check…

    Now the “Save our Country Coalition” has penned a letter to Congress stating that the federal budget is dangerously close to $10 trillion this fiscal year.

    On an inflation adjusted basis, that means the government will spend more fighting Covid than it spent fighting every single 20th century war– plus the 21st century Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan– COMBINED.

    The cost of World War I, World War II, The Korean War, The Vietnam War, The Gulf War, The Iraq War, and the War in Afghanistan combined, does not add up to this fiscal year’s budget.

    Click here to read the full story.

    *  *  *

    On another note… We think gold could DOUBLE and silver could increase by up to 5 TIMES in the next few years. That’s why we published a new, 50-page long Ultimate Guide on Gold & Silver that you can download here.

  • You Can Now Buy This Bankrupt Cruise Ship At Auction 
    You Can Now Buy This Bankrupt Cruise Ship At Auction 

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 20:00

    Travel and tourism have been some of the hardest-hit sectors by COVID-19. The pandemic has been a massive blow to the cruise ship industry, with operators, shipowners, and shipyards feeling the pinch amid a collapse in sails. Now, a bankrupted cruise ship onwer is set to auction one of its vessels next week as there is no travel recovery in sight. 

    Bunny’s Adventure and Cruise Shipping Co. Ltd., the registered owner of RCGS Resolute, a five-star ice-strengthened expedition cruise ship that sleeps 184 in 88 cabins, will be auctioned off on Monday, June 22 in Curaçao, a Dutch Caribbean island. 

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    RCGS Resolute

    According to Cruise Industry News, RCGS Resolute has been leased over the last several years by One Ocean Expeditions, a cruise operator specializing in polar expeditions that recently filed for bankruptcy in a British Columbia court. The vessel has had at least two different voyages interrupted by authorities attempting to collect unpaid bills. 

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    RCGS Resolute aerial view 

    With new management by Columbia Cruise Services, the vessel has been in Curacao for two months. The ship is operating with a skeleton crew, and ship owners are responsible for debts around $4 million. 

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    Due to the virus pandemic and collapse in travel and tourism, this is probably the worst time to auction off a cruise ship, limited bidders could make the sale of the vessel at a steep discount. 

    If cheap enough, maybe Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy, since he’s such a big fan of cruise ship stocks (as we’ve previously noted Robinhood traders pile into cruise ship stocks), should look into the auction slated for next Monday. 

    What’s a couple of million to Portnoy, who routinely says he’s a better investor than Warren Buffett and claims trading is easy… 

  • Is US Oil Dominance Coming To An End?
    Is US Oil Dominance Coming To An End?

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 19:30

    Authored by Arthur Berman via OilPrice.com,

    • U.S.’ energy dominance agenda is dead as the country’s shale industry is looking at a steep production decline.

    • The U.S. tight oil or shale rig count has fallen 69% this year from 539 in mid-March to 165 last week.

    • U.S. oil import dependence is set to grow in the next couple of years.

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    U.S. energy dominance is over. Output is probably going to drop by 50% over the next year and nothing can be done about it. It has nothing to do with the lack of shale profitability or other silly memes cited by people who don’t understand energy.

    It’s because of low rig count.

    The U.S. tight oil or shale rig count has fallen 69% this year from 539 in mid-March to 165 last week. Tight oil production will decline 50% by this time next year. As a result, U.S. oil production will fall from to less than 8 mmb/d by mid-2021.

    What if rig count increases between now and then? It won’t make any difference because of the lag between contracting a drilling rig and first production.

    The party is over for shale and U.S. energy dominance.

    Energy Dominance is Over

    Tight oil is the foundation of U.S. energy dominance. The U.S. has always been a major oil producer but it moved into the top tier of oil super powers as tight oil boosted output from about 5 to more than 12 mmb/d between 2008 and 2019 (Figure 1).

    Conventional production has been declining since 1970. It fell from almost 10 mmb/d in 1970 to 5 mmb/d in 2008.

    Figure 1. Tight oil is the foundation for U.S. Energy Dominance.

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    Conventional production has been in decline since 1970. Tight oil boosted U.S. production to more than 12 mmb/d in 2019.

    Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

    Tight Oil Rig Count and Oil Production

    Rig count is a good way to predict future oil production as long as the proper leads and lags are incorporated.

    It takes several months between an upward price signal and a signed contract for a drilling rig. It takes another 9-12 months from starting a well to first production for tight oil wells. With pad drilling, usually all wells on the pad must be drilled before bringing in a crew to frack the wells.

    Tight oil horizontal production reached 7.28 mmb/d in November 2019 when the lagged rig count was 613 (Figure 2). That corresponded to 12.9 mmb/d of U.S. oil production—tight oil is about 55% of total output. Approximately 600 rigs are needed to maintain 7 mmb/d of tight oil and 12.5 mmb/d of U.S. production.

    The horizontal rig count is now 165 so it is unavoidable that production will fall. The considerable lags and leads mean that production decline cannot be expected to reverse until well into 2021 assuming that it starts to increase immediately. That won’t happen because of constrained budgets and low oil prices.

    Figure 2. 600 tight oil rigs to maintain 7 mmb/d tight oil/12 mmb/d total U.S. output.

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    May tight rig count was 207 so U.S. decline to 8 mmb/d by Q2 2021 is unavoidable. Production should increase this summer with shut-in re-activation then fall in Q4 2020.

    Source: Baker Hughes, IEA DPR, Enverus and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

    U.S. producers shut in most of their wells in May because oil prices had collapsed and storage had reached its limits. Tight oil production has fallen more than 1 mmb/d to 6.2 mmb/d and total U.S. output is around 10.5 mmb/d.

    With the storage crisis now apparently averted and with somewhat higher oil prices, most tight oil wells are being re-activated. Production should increase until all shut-in wells are back on line and then, it will resume its decline.

    Based on rig count analysis, U.S. oil production will probably be about 8 mmb/d by mid-2021 or more than 4 mmb/d less than peak November 2019 levels.

    Killer Decline Rates Require Lots of Rigs

    Lower U.S. crude and condensate production is unavoidable with rig counts where they are today. That is because tight oil decline rates are really high.

    Figure 3 shows Permian basin shale play decline rates by year of first production. The average of all years is 27% per year. More recently drilled wells decline at higher rates because of better drilling and completion technology. The problem is that the wells don’t have greater reserves—they just produce the reserves faster. That means higher decline rates.

    Figure 3. Permian basin annual decline rate is 27% for horizontal tight oil wells

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    Decline rates generally increase for wells drilled in more recent years because of higher initial production rates.

    Source: Enverus and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

    This is not a criticism of the plays or the companies. It’s just a fact.

    And that’s why it’s critical to keep 500 or 600 rigs drilling all the time—to replace the 30% of output lost every year to depletion.

    Production can be turned off and on as it was in May and June. Production cannot be increased without adding rigs and drilling new wells. Assuming there was infinite capital available to add rigs and drill wells, it would take several years to increase rig count to levels needed to maintain 2019 output levels.

    Drilled, uncompleted wells (DUC) may be brought on to slow the rate of production decline somewhat. It is important to note, however, that completion accounts for at least 50% of total well cost. Capital constraints and low oil prices will affect the ability and enthusiasm of companies to complete DUCs.

    After the last oil-price collapse, it took 2.5 years for tight oil rig count to increase from 193 in May 2016 to 618 in November 2018 (Figure 3). There were thousands of DUCs during the last oil-price collapse in 2014-2017 but they didn’t have much effect on production decline.

    The current June rig count of 165 will continue to fall for several months because of low oil price & capital budgets.

    Figure 4. It took 2.5 years for tight oil rig count to increase from 193 in May 2016 to 618 in November 2018.

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    June rig count of 165 will fall for several months based on oil price & capital budgets.

    Source: Baker Hughes, IEA DPR, Enverus and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

    Rigs Don’t Produce Oil, Wells Do

    I’ve shown how rig count, lagged production and decline rates are used to estimate future levels of production. That approach is useful but the truth is that rigs don’t produce oil—wells do.

    Another approach, therefore, is to compare the number of tight oil wells that were drilled and completed during each of the last 5 years to the corresponding average production rates for each of those years. Then, using year-to-date drilling and completion data, we can annualize and project what 2020 production is likely to be.

    This approach suggests that 2020 tight oil production will be about 30% less than in 2019 (Figure 4). Since tight oil represented 56% of total U.S. output in 2019, we may then estimate that U.S. production will average about 8.7 mmb/d in 2020.

    Figure 5. 2020 U.S. production will be less than ~8.7 mmb/d vs 12.3 mmb/d in 2019.

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    Number of completed tight oil wells expected to be ~30% less than in 2019. 8.7 mmb/d is about 25% less than EIA U.S. forecast for 11.6 mmb/d in 2020.

    Source: EIA and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

    That is similar to the estimate obtained from the rig count approach. It is, however, about 25% less than EIA’s 2020 forecast for U.S. crude & condensate production.

    Energy Dominance and Green Paint

    Much lower U.S. oil production is bad for Trump’s Energy Dominance anthem and its corollary that the U.S. is energy independent. It’s even worse for oil prices and the U.S. balance of payments once demand recovers. We will have to import even more oil than we do today and it will cost more.

    The idea of U.S. energy independence is ignorant at best and fraudulent at worst. The U.S. imported nearly 7 mmb/d of crude oil and condensate in 2019 and more than 9 mmb/d of crude oil and refined products. That’s almost as much as China—the world’s second largest economy—consumes.

    The U.S. is a net exporter in the same way that shale companies are making huge profits—by accounting sleight-of-hand.

    The U.S. imports other people’s crude oil, refines it and then, exports it. If a country imports unpainted cars, paints them green and then exports them, is it a net exporter of cars? No. It’s an exporter of green paint.

    The U.S. is screwed when it comes to near- to medium-term oil production. It’s not because of Covid-19. U.S. rig count began to decline 15 months before anyone had heard of Covid-19. Even if the road to economic and oil-demand recovery is faster than I believe it will be, it will take a long time to get back to 12 or 13 million barrels per day of production.

    There are good reasons to expect that much lower U.S. oil production will eventually lead to higher oil prices. That may result in renewed drilling and another cycle of over-supply and lower oil prices. That is how things have developed in the past.

    But a new phase of economic reality and oil pricing is unfolding and no one knows where it will lead. Lower demand may mean that reduced U.S. oil output is appropriate. The only thing that seems certain is that the U.S. will not be the oil super power it was before 2020.

  • China To Gain Draconian Powers In Hong Kong Bill Unveiled Saturday
    China To Gain Draconian Powers In Hong Kong Bill Unveiled Saturday

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 19:00

    Details of a bill unveiled on Saturday would grant China sweeping powers over the enforcement of a new national security law in Hong Kong.

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    According to Reuters, citing the official Xinhua news agency, Hong Kong will establish a local national security council led by city leader Carrie Lam and supervised by a central government commission controlled by Beijing. The new Hong Kong body will also include a mainland adviser.

    New local police and prosecution units will be set up to investigate and to enforce the law, backed by mainland security and intelligence officers deployed to Beijing’s new commission.

    Lam will also have the power to appoint judges to hear cases related to national security, an unprecedented move likely to unnerve some investors, diplomats and business leaders in Hong Kong

    Currently senior judges allocate judicial rosters up through Hong Kong’s independent judicial system. –Reuters

    “From these initial details, this new law presents unprecedented legal questions that we will have to confront in coming years,” according to University of Hong Kong law school professor and barrister, Simon Young, who added that he was troubled by the apparent “broad supremacy” of the new law.

    Beijing and Hong Kong officials have sought to calm concerns over the new laws, insisting that only a small minority of “troublemakers” will be targeted (which, in China means anyone Muslims to pro-democracy dissidents).

    Xinhua claims freedom of speech, freedom to assemble and human rights would be protected.

    The details were unveiled after a three-day meeting of the top decision-making body of China’s parliament. It is unclear when the law will be enacted but political analysts expect it to take effect ahead of Sept. 6 Legislative Council elections in Hong Kong.

    Under the new law, no institutions, organisations and individuals in Hong Kong should engage in activity endangering national security, Xinhua said. This was widely expected to raise concerns for some religious, human rights and foreign-backed groups that have long been based in Hong Kong but are not welcome on the Chinese mainland. –Reuters

    Also included in the new law is a requirement that any Hong Kong government employees, or anyone running for public office must swear allegiance to the city and its mini-constitution.

    Details of the law come after months of anti-Beijing protests over an extradition bill which would have allowed China to deport suspected criminals to be tried in mainland CCP courts. Beijing and local officials have blamed “foreign forces” for stoking the unrest.

  • "I, Who Hates Shorting, Just Shorted the Entire Stock Market. Here's Why"
    "I, Who Hates Shorting, Just Shorted the Entire Stock Market. Here's Why"

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 18:30

    Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

    I hate shorting. The risk-reward relationship is out of whack. It feels crappy. I lost a ton of money shorting the worst highfliers a little too early in late 1999. It’s just nuts to short this market that is even crazier than in late 1999. But this morning, I shared in a comment in our illustrious comment section that I’d just shorted the SPDR S&P 500 ETF [SPY]. My time frame is several months.

    I’m sharing this trade so that everyone gets to ridicule me and hail me as a moron and have fun at my expense in the comments for weeks and months every time the market goes up. And I do not recommend shorting this market; it’s nuts. But here’s why I did.

    The stock market had just gone through what was termed the “greatest 50-day rally in history.” The S&P 500 index had skyrocketed 47% from the intraday low on March 23 (2,192) to the close on June 8 (3,232). It was a blistering phenomenal rally. Since June 8, the market has gotten off track but not by much. It’s still a phenomenal rally. And it came during the worst economy in my lifetime.

    There are now 29.2 million people on state and federal unemployment insurance. There are many more who’ve lost their work who are either ineligible for unemployment insurance or whose state hasn’t processed the claim yet, and when they’re all added up, they amount to over 20% of the labor force. This is horrible.

    But stocks just kept surging even as millions of people lost their jobs each week. The more gut-wrenching the unemployment-insurance data, the more stocks soared.

    Then there is the desperate plight many companies find themselves in, and not just the airlines – Delta warned of a host of existential issues including that revenues collapsed by 90% in the second quarter – or cruise lines – Carnival just reported a revenue collapse of 85% in Q2, generating a $4.4 billion loss, and it is selling some of its ships to shed the expense of keeping them.

    These companies are in sheer survival mode, and they’re raising enormous amounts of money by selling junk bonds and shares so that they have enough cash to burn to get through this crisis.

    This crisis hit manufacturers whose plants were shut down. It hit retailers and sent a number of them into bankruptcy court. It crushed clinics and hospitals that specialize in elective procedures. It shut down dental offices. It sent two rental car companies into bankruptcy court – Hertz and Advantage. It has wreaked untold havoc among hotels and restaurants, from large chains to small operations. And yet, stocks kept surging.

    The situation has gotten so silly in the stock market that the shares of bankrupt Hertz [HTZ] – which will likely become worthless in the restructuring as creditors will end up getting the company – were skyrocketing from something like $0.40 a share on May 26 to $6.28 intraday on June 8, which may well go down in history as the craziest moment of the crazy rally.

    There were stories of a new generation of stuck-at-home day-traders driving up the shares looking for their instant get-rich-quick scheme. And those that could get out at the top made a bundle (but HTZ closed at $1.73 today).

    The smart folks at Hertz and their underwriters, Jefferies LLC, saw all these sitting ducks ripe for the taking, and they came up with a heroic plan to sell up to $1 billion in new shares into this crazy market, while informing investors that those new shares would likely become worthless in the bankruptcy proceedings.

    The bankruptcy judge – likely shaking head in despair – approved it. As HTZ began plunging, the size of the offering was reduced to $500 million. This would have been like a donation to the company’s creditors, who now run the show.

    Hertz would have likely been able to pull off this stunt in this crazy market, but then someone at the SEC woke up and asked some questions, which put the whole escapade on hold. But you can’t blame Hertz. They need money badly, and they’re just going where the easy money is.

    Even during the crazy dotcom bubble in late 1999 and early 2000, the day-trader frenzy hadn’t reached these levels. But back in 1999, the economy was strong. Now this is the worst economy of my lifetime.

    This kind of frenzy has been everywhere in recent weeks. They bid up nearly everything unless it filed for bankruptcy – and even then, they bid it up, as Hertz has shown. This would have been an inexplicable rally in normal times. But these are not normal times.

    These are the times of record Federal Reserve money printing. Between March 11 and June 17, the Fed printed $2.8 trillion and threw them at the markets – frontloading the whole thing by printing $2.3 trillion in the first month.

    And in this manner, the otherwise inexplicable frenzy became explicable: The Fed did it. And everyone was going along for the ride. Don’t fight the Fed. Spreading $2.3 trillion around in one month and $2.8 trillion in three months – in addition to whatever other central banks globally were spreading around – was an unprecedented event. And the fireworks probably surprised even the Fed.

    Credit markets that had been freezing up for junk-rated companies suddenly turned red-hot, and speculators started chasing everything, including junk bonds sold by cruise lines and airlines though their revenues had plunged 80% or 90% and though they were burning cash at a stunning rate. The Fed’s newly created money went to work, driving up stock prices.

    But over the past six weeks something new was developing: While the Fed was talking about all the asset purchase programs it would establish via its new alphabet-soup of SPVs, it actually curtailed the overall level of its purchases.

    Then in the week ended June 10, the Fed’s total assets of $7.1 trillion increased by less than $4 billion. And in the week ended June 17, its total assets actually fell by $74 billion (you can read my analysis of the Fed’s balance sheet here). This chart of the week-over-week change in total assets shows how the Fed frontloaded its QE in March and April, and how it then systematically backed off:

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    And there is another big shift in how the Fed is now approaching the crisis. It’s shifting its lending and asset purchases away from propping up financial markets toward propping up consumption by states and businesses, and ultimately spending by workers/consumers via its municipal lending facility, its PPP loan facility, and its main-street lending facility. These funds are finally flowing into consumption and not asset prices.

    So the superpower that created $2.8 trillion and threw it at this market, and that everyone was riding along with, has stopped propping up asset prices.

    And now the market, immensely bloated and overweight after its greatest 50-day rally ever, has to stand on its own feet, during the worst economy in my lifetime, amid some of the worst corporate earnings approaching the light of the day, while over 30 million people lost their jobs. It’s a terrible gut-wrenching scenario all around.

    And so I stuck my neck out, and I’m sharing this trade for your future entertainment when it goes awry, and you get to have fun at my expense and hail me as the obliterating moron that infamously shorted the greatest stock market rally of all times as it was floating weightlessly ever higher above the worst economic and corporate crisis imaginable.

    *  *  *

    Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? Using ad blockers – I totally get why – but want to support the site? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. 

  • With Cross-Asset Correlation At All Time High, JPM Asks "Why Not Just Own Anything?"
    With Cross-Asset Correlation At All Time High, JPM Asks "Why Not Just Own Anything?"

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 18:00

    In the latest weekly JPMorgan View report by John Normand, the strategist answers the four most common questions that have arisen after such strong market performance:

    1. how much longer will the growth boom last;

    2. how much of that recovery is already discounted in asset prices;

    3. which wildcards, both negative and positive, are most material in coming months; and

    4. why not just own anything when growth is improving, policy hyper-stimulative and cash holdings extraordinary.

    Before we get to the answers, a quick rundown of where the markets are today: as JPM notes, after a torrid, 30%+ rally since the March 23 lows, indexes across FICC and Equities have been tracing a consolidation range this month rather than extending the price highs/spread lows generated since late March. (Oil, which is making new four-month highs, is an exception). Yet even this consolidation still leaves most markets with extraordinary retracements since March – every market but EM Currencies and Agricutural Commodites has retraced at least 50% of its crisis lossses, and several like Large Cap Equities and High Grade Credit have retraced at least 80%.

    The staggering rally, however, is now in the rearview mirror, and the first question JPM clients have is…

    1. How much longer will this “growth boom” last? According to Normand, what will matter for most asset prices over Q3 and possibly Q4 is “the near-term momentum rather than the medium-term malaise.” This judgement reflects a simple observation that most cyclical assets tend to rise in price/tighten in spread as long as the global business cycle is in an upturn which for now it is due to the tremendous drop in March and April.

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    Furthermore, JPM notes that price momentum can be particularly strong at turning points when valuations are cheap, defensive positioning more prevalent and upside data surprises more prevalent (JPM’s global surprise index has been rising since mid-May). But even as the surprise factor fades (these indices are generally designed to mean-revert in shorter cycles than the actual business cycle), market momentum can persist, albeit at a slower pace. These more gradual gains should reflect the eventual economic malaise – or incomplete recovery. Recall, however, that the anemic recovery of the post-Global Financial Crisis still delivered positive returns on most cyclical assets, even if the time required to reclaim pre-crisis price highs was much more extended than the path which followed most previous US recesions between 1970 and 2001.

    2. Is the recovery priced in, or “what is the completeness of the growth/profits recovery. According to JPM, even if the budding business cycle upturn could extend for years because of extremely loose monetary policy, there are limits to what markets can achieve over shorter horizons due to lack of visibility beyond the next couple of quarters. That is why the bank has judged valuations from a few perspectives: (1) a long-term framework based on generally mean-reverting measures like forward P/Es for Equities, spreads for Credit and real (inflation-adjusted) levels of exchange rates, commodity pries and bond yields for the rest of the FICC universe; (2) a short-to-medium term framework that scores markets on the degree of retracements they tend to experience in the last month of recession and the first few quarters of an expansion.

    • Long-term measures, where valuations for each asset class, sector or security are expressed in standard deviations from their multi-decade averages (chart 3), suggest that the cheapest markets are DM/EM Credit followed by Asian Equities; a few EM Bonds (Brazil, South Africa); non-USD currencies (ex CNY); and some Commodities (Oil, Agriculture). The apparent high valuations in US Large Caps are skewed by multiples for Secular Growth sectors (Tech, Com Services, AMZN within Discretionary), whereas other post COVID-19 beneficiaries like Healthcare look cheap.

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    Short-to-medium term measures, which compare recent market retracements to those that typically occur at business cycle turning points, suggest fair value if the global economy recovers lost output extremely quickly, but broad expensiveness if the malaise sets in. Credit and Equities tend to retrace about half their crisis losses by the time a recession ends, and can return to pre-crisis highs in prices/lows in spreads within the first year of the expansion if the recovery recoups lost output and profits within the first year (chart 4). So if the emerging recovery mirrors all previous recessions from 1970 to 2001, then markets are fairly valued. But if the recovery proves more anemic like the post-Global Financial Crisis years were due to impaired balance sheets, then markets have overshot. JPM thinks the GFC is the proper template and are therefore concerned about valuations, which is why its portfolio strategy is conservative.

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    (3) The wildcards, both positive and negative. This potential valuation problem makes more relevant the role of wildcards. Perhaps because market momentum has been so strong in recent months, the sources of downside risk in H2 seem more abundant than the sources of upside. Potential spoilers include:

    • (a) growth upturn fizzles after three to six months, rather than the usual one to two-year upswing (as measured by PMI improvement) that normally follows a recession, due to a second wave of COVID-19 that motivates lockdown or just consumer/corporate caution;
    • (b) fiscal cliffs in various countries from expiration of temporary stimulus measures, partially in Q3 but more so in 2021;
    • (c) US credit cliff if Fed does not extend its facilities beyond Sep 30th;
    • (d) material US sanctions on China/Hong Kong, SAR pre-November to boost Trump’s rating or post-November on Trump’s re-election;
    • (e) Democratic sweep in US elections then corporate tax hikes; and (f) hard Brexit at end of 2020.

    The most material ones to JPM are COVID infections because these are indeed rising in a few US states…

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    … the Democratic sweep because swing state polls favor both Biden versus Trump and Democrats versus Republicans in vulnerable Republican Sentate seats…

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    … and broader US sanctions on China because both the US public and both sides of the US political spectrum hold an overwhelming negative impression of China (66% of Americans have an unfavorable view of China, according to an April Pew Research Center poll). The bank then admits that it isn’t properly hedged against a second wave that triggers lockdowns, other than through a preference for the Tech and Healthcare sectors, because there is sufficient hospital capacity to accommodate the inevitable rise in infections as mobility increases. Normand then admits that he might tilt Equity allocations towards non-US market closer to the elections, but for now his position for the possibility of a Democratic sweep is through short USD positions and longs in Gold (the bank has also bee short CNH for a couple of months in anticipation of US-China tensions and view this trade as one to potentially hold into 2021).

    * * *

    This brings us to JPM’s punchline: does any of the above actually matter at a time when there has been an unprecedented liquidity injection in the markets? The answer is that while the rising tide has indeed lifted all boats, it can only do so much:

    (4) The case for selectivity: According to Normand, “liquidity cannot paper over specific weaknesses indefinitely.” When the business cycle is turning higher, policy hyper-stimulative and downside risks manageable, the obvious investment strategy might be to own anything but cash, holdings of which remain extraordinarily high.

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    This indiscriminate approach would not have damaged absolute returns over the past few months given that all financial assets, but DM Bonds and the US dollar have rallied.  Such high cross-asset correlations are typical at turning points in the cycle, when extreme positioning and liquidity dynamics drive both broad selling as the global economy enters recession then buying as the economy enters expansion. Massive central bank asset purchases can also boost correlations due to a combination of scarcity created by central bank asset purchases and rising growth expectations from central bank easing.

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    However, typically such high correlations mean-revert to their long-term averages within a few months, in part because the pace of QE slows and in turn allows country, sector and company-specific factors to reassert themselves. H2 should bring this sort of differentiation, which is why the April/May strategy of owning anything is unlikely to perform as well going forward. That would mean these choices:

    But typically these high correlations mean-revert to their long-term averages within a few months, in part because the pace of QE slows and in turn allows country, sector and company-specific factors to reassert themselves. H2 should bring this sort of differentiation, which is why as JPM concludes, “the April/May strategy of owning anything is unlikely to perform as well going forward.

  • UN Deletes Pro-Antifa Tweet After Backlash
    UN Deletes Pro-Antifa Tweet After Backlash

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 17:55

    Update (1755ET): And just like that, the UN has deleted their tweet professing support for Antifa.

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    President Trump wants to label Antifa a terrorist organization, which he first announced late last month in response to mayhem unleashed related to the George Floyd protests, which in many cities included rioting, looting, and large-scale vandalism. 

    He had declared so via Twitter on May 31 in follow-up to Attorney General William Barr’s statement at the time:  “The violence instigated and carried out by antifa and other similar groups in connection with the rioting is domestic terrorism and will be treated accordingly.”

    To the surprise of many, the United Nations has now issued a statement rebuking the White House attempt to impose the legal designation. Upon a UN statement being issued on Friday, counter-terrorism expert Max Abrahms at first thought it was a joke, but no it’s not The Onion:

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    The UN Geneva office cited unnamed experts associated with its Human Rights Council to express “profound concern over a recent statement by the US Attorney-General describing [Antifa] and other anti-fascist activists as domestic terrorists, saying it undermines the rights to freedom of expression and of peaceful assembly in the country.”

    This even after there’s been widespread uncertainty and debate over just who or what the group actually is. Or Antifa might more appropriately be seen as a loosely defined movement espousing radical Leftist ideology. But the new UN statement appears positively supportive given it clearly asserted that Antifa is composed of mere “anti-fascist activists”.

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    The unusual UN tweet and statement was widely mocked via conservative social media, for example with OAN journalist Jack Posobiec tweeting“The United Nations is running cover for an international extremist group that has conducted violent insurrectionist attacks across North America and Europe.” 

    He further stated ironically: “Antifa doesn’t exist and also the UN just endorsed them.” 

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    And a number of others called for “defunding the UN”.

    But more importantly, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took the UN Human Rights Council to task, slamming the body’s ‘hypocrisy’ in lecturing Washington on race issues while being “a haven for dictators and democracies that indulge them.”

     

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    “If the Council were honest, it would recognize the strengths of American democracy and urge authoritarian regimes around the world to model American democracy and to hold their nations to the same high standards of accountability and transparency that we Americans apply to ourselves,” Pompeo added.

    * * * 

    Meanwhile, speaking of unusual and perhaps bizarre statements, one sheriff’s office in Louisiana issued this video “warning” to Antifa, which has also gone viral:

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  • DOJ Defends Idaho's Ban On Transgender Athletes From Competing In Women's Sports
    DOJ Defends Idaho's Ban On Transgender Athletes From Competing In Women's Sports

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 17:30

    Authored by Janita Kan via The Epoch Times,

    The Justice Department (DOJ) has defended an Idaho law that bars biological males from competing in all-women sports, arguing that the U.S. Constitution allows the state to recognize the physiological differences between the biological sexes in sports.

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    Idaho in March became the first state to sign a law—Fairness in Women’s Sports Act (Fairness Act)—that prevents biological males from participating in women’s sports that are affiliated with the state’s public school and higher education systems.

    The law, which goes into effect in July, effectively bans transgender girls and women from competing in women’s sports and has drawn criticism from LGBT and civil rights advocacy groups.

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    The law’s passage prompted a transgender athlete, represented by the American Civil Liberties Union and Legal Voice, to sue the state governor, Brad Little, and other officials (pdf), arguing that the law “impermissibly discriminates on the basis of sex and transgender status and invades fundamental privacy rights.” Joining her in the lawsuit is a biological female who worries that competitors might decide to “dispute” her gender in order to keep her from playing soccer.

    One of the athletes’ argument is that the law violates the Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause because it singles out individuals who depart from sex stereotypes, transgender people, and intersex people for discriminatory treatment, according to their lawsuit.

    “We’re suing because HB 500 illegally targets women and girls who are transgender and intersex and subjects all female athletes to the possibility of invasive genital and genetic screenings,” Gabriel Arkles, senior staff attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union, said in a statement at the time the lawsuit was filed. “In Idaho and around the country, transgender people of all ages have been participating in sports consistent with their gender identity for years. Inclusive teams support all athletes and encourage participation—this should be the standard for all school sports.”

    In a statement of interest on Friday, the DOJ disagreed with the athlete’s argument on the equal protection clause, arguing that the state does not need to abandon its efforts to protect biological women with equal opportunity to compete and participate in school athletics in order to accommodate the team preferences of transgender athletes.

    “The Equal Protection Clause allows Idaho to recognize the average physiological differences between the biological sexes in athletics,” the department wrote (pdf). “Because of these differences, the Fairness Act’s limiting of certain athletic teams to biological females provides equal protection because the limitation is based on the same exact interest that allows the creation of sex-segregated athletic teams in the first place—namely, the goal of ensuring that biological females have equal athletic opportunities.”

    The department also pointed out that providing transgender women and girls a special exemption to participate in women sports would in fact require the state to discriminate against straight biological males.

    “Refusing to provide a special exemption for biological males if and only if they are transgender is hardly a denial of equal protection on the basis of sex, especially when such an exemption would harm biological females. Rather, Plaintiffs’ requested special exemption would actually require Idaho to engage in discrimination on the basis of gender identity, by compelling the State to discriminate against biological males whose gender identity reflects their biological sex,” the department wrote.

    “Allowing biological males to compete in all-female sports is fundamentally unfair to female athletes,” Attorney General William Barr said in a statement.

    The Idaho Attorney General office declined to comment on the statement of interest because of the pending litigation.

    Chase Strangio, an attorney with the ACLU, said in a statement to The Epoch Times that the U.S. government is using an argument used by anti-trans advocates for years.

    “Discrimination against women – including women who are trans – is discrimination. DOJ’s arguments will fail here just as DOJ lost its defense of anti-transgender discrimination this week in the Supreme Court,” Strangio said.

    This statement of interest comes follows a Supreme Court ruling that extends Title VII’s protections to gay and transgender employees, by making it illegal to discriminate based on sexual orientation and gender identity.

    The DOJ said in its filing that the Supreme Court’s recent decision does not alter its argument on the equal protection clause because the top court cases did not consider anything about the Constitution and that the Fairness Act does not discriminate on the basis of transgender status.

    “In sum, the Fairness Act neither bars transgender athletes from competing in school athletics nor draws distinctions based on transgender status or gender identity. Instead, it draws distinctions solely based on biological sex, restricting all biological males from participating on athletic teams designated for biological females,” the DOJ said.

  • Over A Third Of Americans Think Civil War Is Likely
    Over A Third Of Americans Think Civil War Is Likely

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 17:00

    No one would have ever fathomed, that America – the greatest country in the world – with “the greatest economy ever” – could even be on the cusp of a civil war. 

    Except for Peter Turchin, who predicted a decade ago in the scholarly journal Nature that America would “suffer a period of major social upheaval” starting around the year 2020

    As race-driven/anti-police protests flourish nationwide – one-in-three Americans are warming up to the idea the country is on the brink of another civil war, according to Rasmussen Reports.

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    The latest findings found 34% of respondents said the country would experience a second civil war within five years, and that includes 9% of those who said it’s very likely. 

    Rasmussen noted, “This compares to 31 percent and 11 percent respectively two years ago.”

    When examining between party lines, 40% of Republicans said civil war was “on the horizon,” while 28% of Democrats concurred. Around 38% of Independent voters said a civil war is possible in the next five years. 

    The survey of 1,000 likely U.S. voters was conducted on June 11 and 14 by Rasmussen Reports, also asked respondents about local governments and protesters removing Confederate monuments. 

    Rasmussen said,

    “Thirty-nine percent (39 percent) of all voters believe the removal of Confederate symbols, names, and monuments throughout the country honoring those who fought in the first civil war will help race relations. Twenty-seven percent (27 percent) disagree and think it will hurt race relations instead.”

    “These numbers are reversed from August 2017 when 28% said the removal of the symbols would help race relations, while 39% thought it would hurt instead. Little changed is the 28% who think the removal of public traces of the Confederacy will have no impact,” it noted.

    Rasmussen continued, “Women and those under 40 are more supportive of the current anti-police protests and the anti-Confederacy drive than men and older voters.”

    Younger voters worry most about another civil war… Just 29 percent of blacks believe the current protests will lead to long-term, meaningful racial change in America, compared to 35 percent of whites and 48 percent of other minority voters,” it said. 

    Chaos in America’s inner cities have been brewing for some time – and was due to erupt, according to Turchin. 

    He looked at “declining wages, wealth inequality and exploding national debt” as social pressures that affected national stability. His model showed that the U.S. would reach a “boiling point” in 2020 — none of this should come as a surprise to Zero Hedge readers. 

    So does civil war become a self-fulfilling prophecy with a third of Americans believing severe domestic turmoil is ahead?

  • "Silenced" – We Live In A Time When Our "Opinions Qualify As Crimes"
    "Silenced" – We Live In A Time When Our "Opinions Qualify As Crimes"

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 16:30

    Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

    Currently, we’re living in an upside-down and backward world where the minority of people hold all the microphones, successfully shouting over a potential majority of people who don’t like the way things are going.

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    I truly believe that most Americans don’t hate their neighbors, don’t indulge in cruelty for the sake of cruelty, don’t indulge in cruel behavior toward those of other races than their own, and just want to live their lives with what happiness they can find. This is not to say that racism does not exist – it does and I’ve seen it in action. It also isn’t to say that there aren’t extremists who wallow in hatred – there are and on all fringes of the political spectrum.

    The trouble happens when one of those fringes tries to silence everybody else. And it’s working.

    How big independent sites are being silenced

    Take the recent threats against ten websites in the United States, all of whom a new website in the UK is trying to get “defunded.”

    We call on brands advertising on Fake News sites to stop funding Fake News.  To be honest, I was very hesitant to write this article, because I, too, am dependent on ad platforms that go through Google. But too many people are silent while others are silenced so here goes.

    Stop Funding Fake News was set up in 2019 by people who were concerned about the rapid rise in Fake News.

    ​Since we launched, we’ve seen one of our target fake news sites completely shut down, and the capacity of several others reduce significantly as a result of us damaging their ability to raise revenue.

    ​We are pro-truth, pro-balance and pro-responsible news. We invite brands and people to consider whether they want their adverts to appear next to hate and untruths. (source)

    Here’s a list of the sites that SSFN considers “racist.” Whether they are or not isn’t the purview of this article.

    You’ll note a common thread on the list of articles that SSFN deems offensive. It seems that only one point of view, as opposed to the balance they say they’re looking for, is acceptable in the eyes of SSFN and anything else must be piled on the pyre of all the virtual books being burned.

    Demonetization or silence

    Zero Hedge, probably the most popular and powerful alternative news site out there, was completely defunded by Google. Here’s what Zero Hedge had to say about the issue.

    You see, the way it works is this. Ad networks bid on advertisements and based on statistics available through Google, these ads are placed on websites that contract with the ad networks. This is how my site and many other high-volume websites get the bulk of their advertising revenue. Keep in mind it’s pretty expensive to run a smaller site like mine, so I can only imagine the cost of running a far bigger site.

    Advertisers are getting on board because their livelihoods, too, rely on being seen as holding the “correct” opinion. We’re all under mob rule.

    The Federalist, another site on that list, was able to keep their site funded but only if they removed their comments section entirely. So not only do they have to change their reporting, but they also have to silence their readers. You may be thinking that it sounds like they caved – but you cannot run a large website without revenue unless you’re independently wealthy and you don’t mind just throwing money down a well never to be seen again. Most site owners are not in that position.

    It’s a nerve-wracking time to be in this business. I debated for several days whether or not to write this article because my head could be on the chopping block next. My livelihood and that of the people who work with me are at risk.

    But if we of the independent media don’t speak up, who will?

    How can we do nothing while the entire conversation is being taken over by radical elements with which many Americans do not agree? The independent media is the last remaining bastion of alternative opinions. George Orwell wrote these chillingly prophetic words in his novel 1984.

    “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.” (source)

    When we of the independent media are gone, Big Brother is totally in charge of all the information you receive.

    Americans can only hold one opinion now.

    Americans continue to be silenced or to be bullied out of their jobs based on who they voted for, forced to affiliate with groups that they may not actually support, or fall victim to a virtual mob during an internet witch hunt.

    All because they dare, in America, alleged land of the free, to disagree with an opinion that is treated as fact.

    You may recall after President Trump was elected how horribly anyone who voted for him was treated. Heaven forbid a person was to wear a red MAGA hat in public because to do so was risking a beating. We were suddenly cast into a world so extreme that our opinions could mean the difference between life and death in the workplace and on the streets.

    If you don’t support groups like Antifa or the Occupy movement, you’re considered a “far-right extremist.” That’s the moniker used to describe Zero Hedge in most of the news coverage about their defunding.

    For the record, I’m not even sort of “right.” I don’t support or endorse either major political party or any extremist groups. I weigh my opinions based on my personal ethics. Some of them may fall in line with the left, some may fall in line with the right, but I do not align myself with any groups. My opinions are entirely my own.

    Freedom of speech is one of our most sacred rights in this country.

    That includes the freedom for those with differing opinions to speak, have platforms, and hold some of the microphones. Silencing these websites through insidiously getting them defunded is anti-American.

    I think CNN, for example, has been proven to be exceptionally biased time and time again, even going so far as to try and swing the last election for Hillary Clinton. It’s an undisputed fact that they literally colluded with her before the presidential debate.

    Regardless of that, I don’t think they should be defunded. I think that they should be able to continue to operate and so should their opposition. That’s how you have a balance in the media.

    And balance in the media is how we have balance in our nation.

    Here’s what Tucker Carlson had to say about the silencing of Americans.

    A few days, Tucker Carlson of Fox News tackled this topic.

    He’s right – our information is being controlled and it doesn’t matter if you personally use Google or not. What does matter is this:

    Google receives over 63,000 searches per second…which translates into at least 2 trillion searches per year, 3.8 million searches per minute, 228 million searches per hour, and 5.6 billion searches per day. (source)

    That’s a whole lot of people who are getting their opinions from one company. That’s a whole lot of power. And that power is being misused to silence opposing points of view. We are at an incredibly dangerous turning point right now and everything we hold dear about America is at risk.

    If you’re looking ahead and the future looks bright, that might be because you’re seeing the country on fire.

  • Murders Spike In NYC As Residents Flee For Suburbs
    Murders Spike In NYC As Residents Flee For Suburbs

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 16:05

    Pandemic and social unrest are some of the reasons why wealthy New Yorkers are fleeing the metro area for rural communities. Now throw violent crime into the mix, and it appears the flight to safety will only increase. 

    A byproduct of the virus crisis, now socio-economic implosion of the city, is a massive increase in violent crime, including murders, shootings, and burglaries (a rise in violent crime is standard in a recession, considering the US entered one back in February). 

    This video sums up why New Yorkers are getting the hell out of dodge as the city implodes. 

    During May, overall crime declined compared to the same period last year. But the New York City Police Department (NYPD) said murders in the city increase by 79%, shootings jumped by 64%, and burglaries rose 34%. 

    The surge in violent crime is expected to supercharge a trend of New Yorkers fleeing the metro for rural communities in New York and New Jersey. We’ve already detailed this emerging trend in several pieces:

    The exodus of cities could become a nationwide trend in the early 2020s if social unrest and the virus pandemic don’t decrease in the near term. With coronavirus wave two likely here – a wave of city dwellers could be the next big seller that sends urban home prices in major cities tumbling, but as we’ve noted, result in surging home prices in some rural communities. 

    A large suburban home is becoming very attractive relative to having urban space in a post corona world. We’ve documented this phenomenon, in several pieces, is happening across several major metropolitan areas:

    At the same time, corporations have devised a way for employees to work remotely. So as America’s inner cities burn – people now have the luxury to watch from afar, isolated in their rural McMansions. 

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    Wait, so will the exodus from cities revive McMansions? The answer could be yes… 

  • US Attorney Berman To 'Immediately' Leave SDNY After Sacking
    US Attorney Berman To 'Immediately' Leave SDNY After Sacking

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 15:40

    Update (1915ET): In a Saturday evening statement, Manhattan US Attorney Geoffrey Berman announced that he will be leaving his post “effective immediately” after Attorney General William Barr said President Trump had fired him earlier in the day – a statement Trump denied.

    “In light of Attorney General Barr’s decision to respect the normal operation of law and have Deputy U.S. Attorney Audrey Strauss become Acting U.S. Attorney, I will be leaving the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York, effective immediately,” said Berman.

    *  *  *

    Update (1615ET): Speaking with the press before his Tulsa, Oklahoma rally, President Trump said he’s “not involved” in Berman’s firing, and that it’s “all up to Attorney General William Barr.”

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    Update (06/20/2020): President Trump has fired Geoffrey Berman, US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, after he refused to tender his resignation.

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    Per a Saturday letter from Attorney General William Barr in which he accuses Berman of choosing “public spectacle over public service,” Barr writes: “Because you have declared that you have no intention of resigning, I have asked the President to remove you as of today, and he has done so.

    According to Rep Don Beyer (D-VA), AG Barr “rushed so quickly to do damage control after being caught in a lie and an act of blatant corruption that he didn’t inform the Judiciary Committee Chair,” adding “What are they trying to cover up? This will not end here.”

    Read the full letter below:

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    * * *

    Geffrey Berman is refusing to step down as US Attorney for the Southern District of New York after Attorney General William Barr asked him to resign, according to Bloomberg.

    “I learned in a press release from the Attorney General tonight that I was ‘stepping down’ as United States Attorney,” said Berman, adding “I have not resigned, and have no intention of resigning, my position, to which I was appointed by the judges of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York.

    I will step down when a presidentially appointed nominee is confirmed by the Senate… …Until then, our investigations will move forward without delay or interruption.

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    Reacting to the news, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said “This late Friday night dismissal reeks of potential corruption of the legal process.

    SDNY was pursuing several probes of the president’s business and his inaugural committee. It was also investigating Rudy Giuliani, an outspoken Trump supporter, and charged two of Giuliani’s associates. In his congressional testimony, Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen, whose conviction on campaign finance violations and other charges was secured by SDNY prosecutors, said he was cooperating with them on matters he couldn’t discuss. -Bloomberg

    According to a NYT anonymous source that cannot be verified, President Trump has been unhappy with Berman since he went after Cohen, and has been discussing Berman’s removal with a small group of advisers for some time.

    Meanwhile, Berman’s predecessor just pointed out that he was fired in almost exactly the same way.

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    In a surprising move that inevitably will be denounced by President Trump’s political opponents as another “Friday Night Massacre”, the DoJ just announced that Geoffrey Berman, the US attorney for the southern district of New York, will soon depart.

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    Geoffrey Berman

    A Republican who contributed to Trump’s campaign, Berman was considered a highly qualified pick to succeed Preet Bharara, the previous occupant of his Berman’s soon-to-be-former office, which also features heavily in the TV show “Billions” (it’s the position held by the show’s antagonist, a corrupt federal prosecutor).

    AG Barr didn’t offer much in the way of an explanation, and Berman hasn’t said much either. Then again, we’re only just finding out about this, and it’s 10pmET on a holiday Friday.

    But even more surprising than the news of Berman’s sudden departure is the news of who will take his place. Following a brief interlude, SEC Chairman Jay Clayton will become the next US Attorney for the Southern District of New York.

    For those who aren’t familiar, Clayton is the same man who almost allowed Hertz and its creditors to sell hundreds of millions of dollars of stock to unsuspecting Robinhood day traders trying to flip their stimulus checks for quick cash with nary a word from the SEC.

    But even more extraordinary than his handling of the Hertz situation is Clayton’s decision to allow Tesla CEO Elon Musk walk away from a dispute with the SEC in which the CEO flagrantly and blithely violated basic securities regulations involving disclosures of material information to the public (remember “funding secured?” and the tedious legal melodrama that ensued in which Musk, in full blown tantrum mode, was repeatedly appeased by government regulators seemingly robbed of all willingness to hold him accountable).

    Indeed, the news elicited some late-breaking chuckles on twitter.

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    We imagine we’ll be hearing more about this tomorrow.

  • "We Will Lose The Story Of The United States" By Not Honoring George Washington, Mount Vernon Warns
    "We Will Lose The Story Of The United States" By Not Honoring George Washington, Mount Vernon Warns

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/20/2020 – 15:40

    Authored by Nicholas Ballasy via JustTheNews.com,

    In response to protesters tearing down a 100-year-old statue of George Washington and vandalizing it, Washington’s Mount Vernon warned that “we will lose the story of the United States” by failing to honor Washington, adding that without the founding father and former U.S. president, “there would be no United States” or U.S. Constitution.

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    The Mount Vernon estate is a historic home of Washington, the first U.S. president, and is located in Fairfax County, Va.

    Protesters in Portland, Ore., on Thursday night spray painted “colonist” and “BLM [Black Lives Matter]” on the statue, wrapped an American flag around it and set it on fire.

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    “Without George Washington, there would be no United States of America; there would be no Constitution, which allows the freedom of speech, assembly, and protest, as well as the separation of church from state and without Washington we would not have civilian-led military,” said Mount Vernon President and CEO Dr. Douglas Bradburn in a statement provided to Just the News on Friday.

    “If we fail to honor George Washington, because we understand him only as a slave owner, we will lose the story of the United States, for it will have no beginning and very little direction,” he added.

    According to Mount Vernon, Washington “left directions for the emancipation of all the slaves that he owned” after the death of his wife, Martha. She decided to “free her late-husband’s slaves early” and the process was fully completed in 1801, according to government documents.

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Today’s News 20th June 2020

  • Lies, Damned Lies, & COVID-19
    Lies, Damned Lies, & COVID-19

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 23:40

    Authored by Michael Lesher via Off-Guardian.org,

    Growing up as I did in the Cold War, I still experience a special kind of shudder whenever I come across an anecdote like that of Katya Soldak, whose Soviet nursery school teacher once showed her class a photograph clipped from a Western newspaper, “depicting skinny [Russian] children in striped robes walking in a straight line.”

    The capitalists who printed that picture wanted people to think Soviet children were “treated like prisoners,” the teacher declared angrily, “when in reality the kids were on their way to a swimming pool in their bathrobes.”

    Which was a nice story (thought little Katya) — except that “I had never even seen a pool…. [T]hey existed in my mind as does an exotic animal or an unvisited city.”

    A time capsule from a remote dystopia? Think again.

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    Staring at me right now from the latest quarterly newsletter of my alma mater, the University of Virginia, is an identical piece of bad-is-good fakery: a photograph of an involuntarily isolated graduate student named Kalea Obermeyer, accompanied by a caption blandly informing the reader that the woman seated alone on a trunk in the confines of a cramped dormitory room, clumsily swathed in a surgical mask, “shelters in place” in “her most secure housing during the pandemic.”

    Welcome to Pravda, COVID19 style.

    Being an honest sort, I have considered whether I ought to write to the editors of my old university’s magazine, accusing them of playing toady to democracy-destroying propagandists.

    Should I remind these so-called educators of the young that the term “shelter in place” is properly applied to air raids, not to “pandemics,” and is a cruel hoax when pressed into service to describe what is actually an illegal quarantine?

    That the young woman in the photograph is not “sheltered” but confined? That pandemics have occurred many times before, and that what’s new this time around is not the flu but the police state? That the governor’s order placing this student (and the rest of the citizenry) under virtual house arrest is probably unconstitutional?

    And that while she’s stuck in her room — for no good reason I can discern — a whole host of local bus drivers, contract workers and university employees, including dining hall service workers who’ve labored there for decades, are all out of jobs?

    I’d like to write all that, and more, to the purveyors of this bit of fake news. But I suspect I’d be wasting my time.

    Mainstream media have recycled so many lies about COVID19 that by now every respectable editor with enough sense to come in out of the rain knows perfectly well what he or she is supposed to make the rest of us believe. And heaven help the dissenters!

    Thus the once-respectable Atlantic, after months of promoting coronavirus hysteria, has published a kind of palinode that admits virtually every charge made by critics of lockdown policies — but still winds up gloomily insisting on the freedom-haters’ moral supremacy, facts or no facts.

    The authors (Alexis Madrigal and Robinson Meyer) grudgingly concede the growing evidence that going outdoors, instead of being cooped up for months at a time per lockdown fiats, actually reduces the risk of infection.

    They also admit that those who enforce our confinement clearly don’t believe their own hype about “social distancing”: police are “crowding protesters together, blasting them with lung and eye irritants, and cramming them into paddy wagons and jails.”

    They even point out that the police themselves rarely bother separating from one another. But ultimately none of that matters to the liberal Atlantic: it’s “obvious” — evidence be damned — that just “standing in a crowd for long periods raises the risk of increased transmission of SARS-CoV-2.” Who says so? Why, Anthony Fauci does.

    And what about all the evidence that COVID19, never anywhere near as deadly as officials originally assured us it was, is on the way out?

    Here, too, the Atlantic’s paladins admit the facts but refuse to draw the obvious conclusion. They note that “the outbreak has eased in the Northeast,” the hardest-hit section of the US; that new cases have leveled off or declined in the great majority of states; and that “hundreds of public-health professionals signed a letter this week declining to oppose the protests [against police brutality] ‘as risky for COVID19 transmission.’”

    They even admit that in Georgia and Florida, two states that enforced lockdowns least and opened up earliest, the numbers of new infections have been “relatively flat.”

    In the face of so much good news, what are right-thinking police-state enthusiasts to do?

    “[T]he US is not going to beat the coronavirus,” Madrigal and Meyer groan in unison in the article’s key paragraph. “Collectively, we slowly seem to be giving up.” Now there’s a specimen of doublethink even Orwell missed: victory is surrender; lockdown is safety; hysteria is virtue.

    So I’m not planning to write to the editors at my alma mater — at least, not about that propagandists’ playground known as COVID19. When rights-trampling, economy-busting general incarceration is the fashion in the Land of the Free, when lying is good sense and wrecking lives is “health care,” my old ideas of rational persuasion start to look like a parasol in a monsoon.

    Instead, I am going to do a bit of ranting about words — the elements that lies are made of. I do this because I am sure the twisting of language to cloak political and economic skullduggery — which I take to be the worst evils of the coronavirus outbreak — will be glossed over in future mainstream accounts.

    And I do it because the politicians who tore up the Bill of Rights and thrust the US and much of the world to the brink of another Great Depression are not likely to change their spots — and unless we insist on calling their actions by their right names, we will be defenseless against their future machinations. “Political language,” Orwell reminded us, “is designed to make lies sound truthful…and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.”

    Well, here are some choice examples of “pure wind” that made “lies sound truthful” over the past three months:

    Shelter in place. 

    The fraudulent use of this term stands in synecdoche to all the rest. “Shelter in place” originated in US Civil Defense regulations in the context of a possible nuclear attack; over the following decades, the term evolved to mean any emergency order to “take cover until the coast is clear on order of officials.” But it has never had the slightest connection with disease control.

    An order that restricts the movement of someone who is not ill, but who is suspected of contact with someone who is, is called a “quarantine.” But there are laws that regulate slapping quarantine orders on people — to say nothing of an entire population — and the governors and mayors who were bent on lockdowns clearly didn’t intend to be constrained by anything as pedestrian as the law.

    So they dug up this irrelevant phrase and plastered it over their arbitrary confinements of huge numbers of citizens — in violation of quarantine statutes, without a court order, and without even a semblance of public debate — hoping nobody would notice the compounding of official malfeasance with verbal fakery.

    It’s worth taking a moment to imagine how this trick must have been hatched in the bowels of some executive mansion.

    I can picture someone like New Jersey governor Phil Murphy (last seen claiming that the constraints of the Bill of Rights weren’t part of his job description) barking at his aides, “Damn it, there’s got to be something to justify locking up the whole state without going through those pesky quarantine procedures!”

    And I can see a harried assistant, having rummaged for hours in the archives, jogging into an office with the term “shelter in place” and a rather sheepish explanation that, well, it’s not about infection control, and doesn’t really have anything to do with the present situation, but it does say “in place” and, um, “shelter” and, you know…and anyway, for God’s sake, there isn’t anything else!

    And then it’s not hard to imagine the boss (who knows the media better than his subordinates do) triumphantly working the words “shelter in place” into his next public address, confident that few mainstream reporters will ask him where the phrase came from.

    The imagined details are less important than the obvious fact that “shelter in place” could not have been sprung on us by way of an innocent error. The term had to be found, and the officials who found it would necessarily have known what it meant, and therefore that its use in the context of a viral epidemic would constitute a fraud.

    Thus, anyone — and I mean anyone — who has employed the phrase “shelter in place” over the last three months has been repeating a lie. It’s as simple as that. Every public health care official who has used the phrase is a scoundrel; every “journalist” who has used it is a shameless propagandist; every politician who has used it is an imposter who, in my view, deserves to be impeached or voted out of office forthwith.

    Social distancing. 

    This one runs “shelter in place” a close second. The phrase was nonexistent, or at best obscure, until rather recently; when officials of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention used it in a 2007 advisory memorandum, they felt obliged to explain the term in a footnote:

    Social distancing refers to methods for reducing frequency and closeness of contact between people in order to decrease the risk of transmission of disease. Examples of social distancing include cancellation of public events such as concerts, sports events, or movies, closure of office buildings, schools, and other public places, and restriction of access to public places such as shopping malls or other places where people gather.

    Note that this definition does not include keeping people six feet apart, stifling them with surgical masks, or barring them from inviting family members to their apartments. Evidently, not even the germophobes at the CDC were prepared to contemplate so brutal a disruption of human life just thirteen years ago.

    In fact, the same memorandum stressed the importance of “[r]espect for individual autonomy” and “each individual’s general right to noninterference,” adding that even in the event the government did close office buildings or restrict access to shopping malls, “[a] process should be in place for objections to be heard, restrictions appealed, and for new procedures to be considered prior to implementation” — something never even remotely attempted during the last three months.

    In other words, “social distancing” really means whatever the changing whims of our governors would like it to mean, as they continue to exercise “emergency” powers in what is clearly not an emergency. Meanwhile, the use of the term gives a false patina of scientific legitimacy to unprecedented government intrusions into the most basic interactions of human life.

    The timing of the successive redefinitions of the phrase is itself instructive. In my own state of New Jersey, masks were not required as a component of “social distancing” until mid-April, by which time it was clear that the number of new cases in the region was already leveling off. (Masks remain mandatory in public as of this writing, even though the infection rate has fallen almost to pre-outbreak levels.)

    Allow that point to sink in for a moment: “social distancing” took on a more extreme and divisive definition at just the moment that, by any rational calculation, restrictions should have been reduced, if not removed altogether! And the most recent fiats from the governor suggest that nothing like ordinary companionship is going to be permitted any time soon — regardless of the facts.

    This implies that, at bottom, “social distancing” is not intended to serve any genuine medical purpose. It’s much better understood as an instrument of political repression — a way of keeping people apart and preventing any sort of public organizing.

    I don’t consider it an accident that the “phased reopening plan” being peddled by nearly all media “experts,” and routinely attributed to Johns Hopkins University, was in fact produced under the leadership of Scott Gottlieb, a resident fellow of the American Enterprise Institute — the right-wing think tank that served as a major cheerleader for the Iraq invasion of 2003 and whose recent initiatives include efforts to sharply reduce federal spending on health care.

    (Dr. Gottlieb, who until recently was Trump’s Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, now sits on the boards of pharma heavyweights Pfizer, Illumina and Tempus — so it’s not hard to see where his interests lie.)

    That AEI is in no hurry to help small businesses reopen or to keep working people from losing their jobs will come as no surprise. What needs emphasis is that if such an outfit couldn’t hide its agenda behind the medical-sounding phrase “social distancing,” it would stand little chance of slipping its initiatives past the general public and into practice. But while we’re all creeping around with our faces wrapped like mummies, turned away from each other whenever possible, staying at least six feet apart, and speaking only when spoken to, how are we supposed to mount effective political opposition as the high rollers play their favorite games?

    Emergency. 

    Though it’s not often reported this way, the United States largely suspended democratic government back in March, when some 40 state executives declared “health emergencies,” granting themselves quasi-dictatorial powers to act without legislative approval or legal process.

    They did this by invoking each state’s version of the Emergency Health Powers Act, a controversial piece of legislation crafted in the nervous aftermath of the September 2001 attacks and supposedly designed for a coordinated response to a massive act of bioterrorism. The American Civil Liberties Union was not alone back then in condemning the bill as “replete with civil liberties problems” and “a throwback to a time before the legal system recognized basic protections for fairness.”

    Nevertheless, liberal media didn’t utter a peep when governors across the nation effectively scuppered democracy in the face of what, however threatening, didn’t even arguably resemble a catastrophic bioterror attack.

    If that strikes you as a flagrant abuse of the word “emergency” for questionable political purposes — and it should — you ain’t seen nothing yet.

    On June 4, New Jersey’s Governor Murphy issued his third consecutive extension of what was supposed to be a thirty-day “state of emergency” he had originally declared — unilaterally — on March 9.

    What was the “emergency” this time around? In the governor’s own words: “there has now been a decrease in the rate of reported new cases of COVID19 in New Jersey, in the total number of individuals being admitted to hospitals for COVID19, and in the rate of reproduction for COVID19 infections in New Jersey.”

    Got that? New cases, hospitalizations, even the “rate of reproduction” for the virus are all on the wane throughout Murphy’s jurisdiction. (And have been for months.) Yet in today’s Newspeak, that’s an “emergency” — enough to justify another month of democracy-free rule by executive fiat.

    And I’m the Maharaja of Mysore…

    I won’t even bother writing about that most buffoonish of phrases, “flattening the curve.” If that ever meant anything (which I doubt), it means literally nothing, or more accurately less than nothing, when applied (as it is now) to an outbreak that is demonstrably almost over.

    I’ll only note that if the lockdown enthusiasts had been able to specify an actual goal, in intelligible language, they would have done so from the start. They couldn’t — because their true objectives were political, not medical — so they offered us a magical-thinking cartoon image instead. They must be hoping we still haven’t noticed.

    As always, fraudulent language goes hand in hand with fraudulent political posturing, of which the Atlantic article I’ve already mentioned — oozing crocodile tears over the excesses of the cops while oblivious to the Constitution-defying antics of Governors Cuomo, Murphy, Whitmer et al. — is a rather rank example.

    In a similar vein, Ross Douthat’s recent op-ed in the New York Times is an interesting confession of liberal dishonesty in the service of a slightly different form of liberal dishonesty.

    Douthat correctly complains about members of the “public health establishment” who condemned anti-lockdown protesters just weeks ago as a dangerous death cult, but are now bowing and scraping before the parallel behavior of Black Lives Matter, “tying themselves in ideological knots” in the process.

    Douthat’s indictment of highbrow hypocrisy on this score is so accurate that it is worth quoting at length:

    [T]he original theory behind a stern public health response — that the danger to life and health justified suspending even the most righteous pursuits, including not just normal economic life but the practices and institutions that protect children, comfort the dying, serve the poor — has been abandoned or subverted by every faction in our national debate…. There is no First Amendment warrant to break up Hasidic funerals while blessing Black Lives Matter protests, and there is no moral warrant to claim that only anti-racism, however pressing its goals, deserves a sweeping exception from rules that have forbidden so many morally important activities for the last few months.

    All this is perfectly true. But with a pinch more honesty, Douthat might have concluded that “the original theory” was a sham to begin with. If the Right Thinkers had been telling the truth when they herded us all into captivity back in March, they’d still be yelling “obey or die!” at every crowd that defies lockdown orders.

    Douthat interprets their inconsistency as a surrender to the virus; he can’t admit that the Right Thinkers’ real battle was never against COVID19. It was against us.

    The same conclusion stares us in the face from the Right Thinkers’ eulogizing of protests against police brutality — or, rather, from what their encomiums to those protests consistently omit.

    The demonstrations spearheaded by Black Lives Matter focus on police-state tactics employed by uniformed enforcers of the will of the State; the much-maligned anti-lockdown protesters have been objecting to police-state tactics employed by political officials of the State itself.

    The connection between the two sets of protests should be obvious. But have you heard any of the high-profile liberals who are paying homage to Black Lives Matter breathe a single word to the effect that these different groups of protesters ought to combine their efforts, or at least to coordinate their campaigns in order to increase their political effectiveness?

    Of course not — and in my view, that’s the real reason behind the hypocritical nonsense being spouted in support of BLM by establishmentarians who merely sneered when the protesters were white working people.

    As long as Black Lives Matter continues to observe the double limitation that has so far marked its demonstrations — protesting only along racial lines, and only against the police — the ruling class’s left-wing will go on blessing it, because it won’t constitute too large a threat to established order.

    If the demonstrations start to talk about the rights of all people to be free of arbitrary confinement as well as violence, of all ordinary Americans to be able to work for a living as well as staying out of prison, the evils of all officials who stand in their way…well, that will be a horse of a different color.

    Remember the snapshot of congressional Democrats kneeling in pious rows with those silly kente stoles around their necks?

    That was styled as a “protest,” but don’t kid yourselves: if Pelosi & Co. were genuinely horrified about police racism, they would have done something about it years ago. I think those Democratic heavyweights knelt to pray that BLM doesn’t realize it’s confronting a broader issue than racist police violence.

    As I write this, the US is teetering simultaneously on the edge of its worst financial collapse since the 1930s and on the brink of a descent into quasi-dictatorial rule. Sectarian protests, however justified, won’t halt that descent. General political resistance just might. And liberal pundits are scared to death that protesters, black and white, progressive and conservative, might figure out that they’re really fighting the same enemy.

    Of course, nothing I can write is going to penetrate the minds of people who have drunk the lockdown Kool-Aid and will hear, in my dissection of the fraudulent language used by “public servants” to foment poverty and to shred the Bill of Rights, only some sort of “coronavirus denial.”

    So let me say it clearly: the coronavirus epidemic is real. Okay? It exists — but saying it exists is a mere truism. Iraq exists too, and it was once ruled by a particularly vicious dictator — though the fact that his worst atrocities were committed with extensive US support is mentioned far less often than it should be.

    But it is still true that the American and British publics were tricked into endorsing a criminal invasion of that country on the strength of false claims. And no assortment of after-the-fact apologetics can turn those lies into truths.

    The same holds for COVID19 and its flagrantly deceitful handling by nearly everyone involved: politicians, reporters, pundits, public health “experts.” (The US leadership of my own Orthodox Jewish community has been just as bad.) Yes, this is a highly contagious respiratory infection that can have serious effects on unusually vulnerable people. But beyond that, just about everything we were told about COVID19 has turned out to be false.

    • We were told the virus would kill millions in the US alone, and that was false.

    • We were told lockdowns would make it go away, and that was false.

    • We were told we would only be confined until the rate of new cases leveled off, and that was false.

    • We were told that while the outbreak lasted no state government would tolerate any sort of public gathering for any reason, and that was false.

    • We were told that anyone who questioned the wisdom of the draconian restrictions foisted on us by our governments was a crypto-Nazi whose real goal was to kill off the weak — and that was false, not to mention slanderous.

    • Most unforgivably of all, we were told — and told, and told — that morality was entirely on the side of the democracy-destroyers. That was a lie of breathtaking proportions.

    Not only did the lockdowns violate state laws and make a mockery of the US Constitution; not only did they deprive at least tens of millions of Americans of their basic liberties; not only have they cost millions of people their jobs and thrust the country into its worst economic straits since the 1930s — on top of all that, they have sown untold misery around the world, as mushrooming numbers of poor people experience acute food shortages and millions of children face the interruption of vital medical supplies.

    And even as mainstream media begin to admit these facts, they still subvert reality by pretending that all this suffering is a result “of the coronavirus.”

    That’s simply another lie. It would be as true to say that millions died in Nazi gas chambers as a result of the rise of Soviet communism. (The putative threat of “the Bolsheviks” was a crucial theme in the anti-Semitism that underpinned the Nazi “Final Solution.”)

    The truth, of course, is that the coronavirus didn’t cause these hardships, at least not by itself. Politicians chose to inflict them. And unless we keep that knowledge alive, we will never be able to hold those responsible to account — nor prevent a repetition of such behavior in the future.

    “The beginning of wisdom,” said Confucius, “is to call things by their proper name.”

    Katya Soldak and her nursery school classmates could not dismantle their country’s ruling Communist Party, but they could refuse to call a prison camp a health resort. Surely we can refuse to cooperate in the use of language whose sole purpose is to swindle us. At present our civil liberties are under serious assault, as is the very principle of democracy. Can’t we call those ugly things the names they deserve?

    I know what I am proposing is more difficult than it sounds. The enemies of honesty in politics have vast resources at their disposal, and they are not shy about abusing them. Already the UN’s euphemistically-named Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Opinion and Expression, David Kaye, has openly applauded censorship of lockdown critics, even acknowledging that social media “platforms are serving as stand-ins for government authorities” in an effort to curb unwanted political protest.

    The dishonesty infects even small details: the Washington Post, like most US media outlets with paywalls, makes an exception for COVID19“providing this important information about the coronavirus for free”; but the Post’s only story on the Wisconsin Supreme Court’s reversal of the governor’s mass-confinement order that contains the court’s explanation of its ruling is behind the same paywall as every ordinary article.

    Evidently, stories that promote coronavirus hysteria constitute “important information,” while stories that lend support to dissenters do not — not even when they concern the reasoning of the highest court of a major state.

    So yes, the COVID19 game is rigged — as games run by our rulers usually are. But false depictions of reality have power only to the extent honest people allow themselves to be deceived.

    Powerful politicians, and their tame pundits, are plainly betting that the public can be manipulated by the fear of a novel virus. But the thing we should fear the most is irrational submissiveness, what Max Weber called “the cowardly will to impotence.”

    The moral of the Emperor’s new clothes is as relevant as ever: a single honest voice can unravel the most elaborately designed fakery. People who demand the truth may be outnumbered. They cannot easily be overcome.

  • In Friday Night Drama, US Attorney Geoffrey Berman Refuses To 'Step Down' After Barr Asks For Resignation
    In Friday Night Drama, US Attorney Geoffrey Berman Refuses To ‘Step Down’ After Barr Asks For Resignation

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 23:20

    Geffrey Berman is refusing to step down as US Attorney for the Southern District of New York after Attorney General William Barr asked him to resign, according to Bloomberg.

    “I learned in a press release from the Attorney General tonight that I was ‘stepping down’ as United States Attorney,” said Berman, adding “I have not resigned, and have no intention of resigning, my position, to which I was appointed by the judges of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York.

    I will step down when a presidentially appointed nominee is confirmed by the Senate… …Until then, our investigations will move forward without delay or interruption.

    Reacting to the news, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said “This late Friday night dismissal reeks of potential corruption of the legal process.

    SDNY was pursuing several probes of the president’s business and his inaugural committee. It was also investigating Rudy Giuliani, an outspoken Trump supporter, and charged two of Giuliani’s associates. In his congressional testimony, Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen, whose conviction on campaign finance violations and other charges was secured by SDNY prosecutors, said he was cooperating with them on matters he couldn’t discuss. -Bloomberg

    According to a NYT anonymous source that cannot be verified, President Trump has been unhappy with Berman since he went after Cohen, and has been discussing Berman’s removal with a small group of advisers for some time.

    *  *  *

    In a surprising move that inevitably will be denounced by President Trump’s political opponents as another “Friday Night Massacre”, the DoJ just announced that Geoffrey Berman, the US attorney for the southern district of New York, will soon depart.

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    Geoffrey Berman

    A Republican who contributed to Trump’s campaign, Berman was considered a highly qualified pick to succeed Preet Bharara, the previous occupant of his Berman’s soon-to-be-former office, which also features heavily in the TV show “Billions” (it’s the position held by the show’s antagonist, a corrupt federal prosecutor).

    AG Barr didn’t offer much in the way of an explanation, and Berman hasn’t said much either. Then again, we’re only just finding out about this, and it’s 10pmET on a holiday Friday.

    But even more surprising than the news of Berman’s sudden departure is the news of who will take his place. Following a brief interlude, SEC Chairman Jay Clayton will become the next US Attorney for the Southern District of New York.

    For those who aren’t familiar, Clayton is the same man who almost allowed Hertz and its creditors to sell hundreds of millions of dollars of stock to unsuspecting Robinhood day traders trying to flip their stimulus checks for quick cash with nary a word from the SEC.

    But even more extraordinary than his handling of the Hertz situation is Clayton’s decision to allow Tesla CEO Elon Musk walk away from a dispute with the SEC in which the CEO flagrantly and blithely violated basic securities regulations involving disclosures of material information to the public (remember “funding secured?” and the tedious legal melodrama that ensued in which Musk, in full blown tantrum mode, was repeatedly appeased by government regulators seemingly robbed of all willingness to hold him accountable).

    Indeed, the news elicited some late-breaking chuckles on twitter.

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    We imagine we’ll be hearing more about this tomorrow.

  • North Korea Sends Troops & Ships To Border As More Attention-Grabbing 'Explosive Displays' Loom
    North Korea Sends Troops & Ships To Border As More Attention-Grabbing ‘Explosive Displays’ Loom

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 23:15

    While the world awaits more of North Korea’s attempt at attention-grabbing “explosive displays” following the dramatic televised explosion of the inter-Korean liaison office Tuesday, there’s been a reported build-up of NK troops along the the demilitarized zone (DMZ), according to new reports. Ships have also been observed entering areas along the disputed maritime border.

    Pyongyang’s recent threats to mobilize extra forces have been made good on, apparently: “North Korea’s military appeared to be moving to the front lines near the South as a U.S. reconnaissance plane flew over the peninsula, following days of threats and provocations from Pyongyang,” UPI reports.

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    Prior illustrative image via North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency/Reuters.

    South Korean media and military sources report that “North Korean troops were stationed on the North’s side of the Korean demilitarized zones, at vacated guard posts of the tense border.”

    Pyongyang’s latest saber-rattling is ostensibly related to an ongoing campaign of defectors spreading propaganda leaflets into the north via the border. Apparently in some cases activists are using balloons to transport messages into the north encouraging people to defect.

    “On Wednesday North Korea had said it would retake vacated guard posts and take military action if North Korean defectors in the South continued to send anti-Pyongyang leaflets by helium balloon,” the UPI report adds.

    Thus it appears Pyongyang’s troop movements, including what it says are elite units, are an attempt to make good on the prior threats.

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    It also comes amid disappointment at stalled – and what now appears to be completely failed – nuclear talks with Washington, which Seoul had previously touted as something it would help achieve.

    South Korean diplomats have reportedly reached out to restore communications with the north but have been rebuffed. It’s widely believed that Kim John Un and his increasingly visible sister Kim Yo-jong, who has lately emerged as an outspoken military ‘enforcer’ of sorts, are seeking new leverage with the Trump administration, at a time sanctions are still in place with little openings forward.

  • Daytrading Icon Portnoy Now Using Random Scrabble Letters To Pick A Stock
    Daytrading Icon Portnoy Now Using Random Scrabble Letters To Pick A Stock

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 23:00

    As much as BarStool’s Dave Portnoy has become a punching bag for the commission-rakers (or sellers of quote traffic to HFTs) and asset-gatherers across America of all that is unholy about the speculative excess in the stock market, he has also done more than anyone before him to expose the real absurdity of the Fed-fueled farce that CNBC still likes to call a ‘market’ while helping retail investors crush both hedge funds the and the S&P500.

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    Today’s ‘performance’ pushed him to ’11’ on the amplifier of daytrading largesse when, in response to derogatory comments by former CNBC anchor and former hedge fund manager (or something like that) Ron Insana on CNBC this afternoon, Portnoy rage-tweeted:

    “Imagine a talking head who tried to start his own hedge fund only to go bust instantly and then he runs back to Tv acting like an expert? Ron Insana is a punchline. Google him. He is a documented failure. Why even put him on Tv @CNBC ? Is he teaching classes on how to fail?”

    And then proceeded to choose his next trading target through the CAPM recommended optimal asset selection process of picking Scrabble letters from a bag.

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    He picked out R-T-X… Raytheon.

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    We’ll see how the stock does, although we fully expect it to soar premarket on Monday just because.

    For now, we are sending this along to relevant parties to ensure they are fully aware of what they have done in the name of “saving” us all.

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    Joking aside, and with the recent suicide of one such speculatively-challenged young man, the fact of the matter is that the dollars being levered into worthless stocks (and options) are real to many people and when this devil ether-chugging casino finally ends, there will be hell to pay, only this time everyone will know The Fed is responsible for enabling it and who knows: maybe one day street protests will finally appear before the Marriner Eccles building.

  • The Crisis Goes Up A Gear: Is This The Beginning Of The End For The Dollar?
    The Crisis Goes Up A Gear: Is This The Beginning Of The End For The Dollar?

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 22:50

    Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

    Dollar-denominated financial markets appeared to suffer a dramatic change on or about the 23 March. This article examines the possibility that it marks the beginning of the end for the Fed’s dollar.

    At this stage of an evolving economic and financial crisis, such thoughts are necessarily speculative. But an imminent banking crisis is now a near certainty, with most global systemically important banks in a weaker position than at the time of the Lehman crisis. US markets appear oblivious to this risk, though the ratings of G-SIBs in other jurisdictions do reflect specific banking risks rather than a systemic one at this stage.

    A banking collapse will be a game-changer for financial markets, and we should then worry that the Fed has bound the dollar’s future to their fortunes.

    The dollar could fail completely by the end of this year. Against that possibility a reset might be implemented, perhaps by reintroducing the greenback, which is not the same as the Fed’s dollar. Any reset is likely to fail unless the US Government desists from inflationary financing, which requires a radically changed mindset, even harder to imagine in a presidential election year.

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    Introduction

    The most important mistake economists and financial watchers make is to assume events and prices tomorrow are simply projections of those of today. It is the basis of all economic and financial modelling. Yet despite the hard lessons of experience economic forecasters persist with their misleading models.

    Nowhere is the failure of linear projection from the past more important than in the lifeblood common to everything. While knowing that state-issued currencies change in their utility over time, almost no one expects their demise, other perhaps at some point in the far distant future. But what if this generally linear expectation is as wrong as all other forecasting models? What if the response to the current economic crisis is a more rapid depreciation of currencies? And what happens if they die altogether? And what are the consequences for the ordinary person?

    This article explores these what-ifs. It examines the conditions that could lead to this outcome. History gives us a guide, not through extrapolation, but by telling us that every recorded currency collapse has occurred to fiat currencies unbacked by gold or silver. So, we know it will happen — eventually. Less understood is that the pattern is always the same: a prolonged period of falling purchasing power, followed by a sudden collapse when a currency’s users finally reject it. In terms of time the latter phase usually lasts approximately six months.

    Assessing the turning point

    The early morning of Monday, 23 March was a significant time, marking the top of the dollar’s trade-weighted index. At the same time, gold, silver and copper prices, having fallen in the weeks before turned sharply higher. And while oil initially followed, it was a month before it resumed its uptrend — delayed by the delivery hiatus in the futures markets which briefly drove the price negative. The S&P 500 rallied the following day, ending a near 30% decline before recovering all of it, and then some.

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    Something had changed. Either markets decided that economic growth, both in the US and the rest of the world was going to continue following lockdowns, and growing demand for key commodities was going to be resumed. Or, as the decline in the dollar’s TWI indicated, the purchasing power of the dollar was going to decline, and commodity prices were reflecting an accelerating downtrend for the dollar’s purchasing power.

    The performance of the S&P 500 since 23 March, being unhinged from any business conditions, gives us a clue: the flood of money emanating from the Fed is fuelling stock prices. It is also fuelling prices of all other financial assets.

    The turnaround in silver is a more subtle story, shown in the chart as the reciprocal of the more usual gold/silver ratio. Silver had been ignored, classed solely as an industrial metal. Gold was seen by the financial community as the only metallic hedge against uncertainty in the financial system. That changed on 23 March when the gold/silver ratio peaked at 125 on the previous business day. It is now beginning to outperform gold with the gold/silver ratio currently down to 98. We might look back and pinpoint this time as marking the beginning of a return to some moneyness in silver.

    The weeks before had seen the Fed ease monetary policy. On 3 March, the Fed cut its funds rate from 1 ½% to 1%. In the accompanying announcement the Fed said that the fundamentals of the economy remained strong, but the coronavirus posed evolving risks to the economy.

    On 15 March, the Fed cut its funds rate again, this time to zero, but the statement now said the coronavirus had harmed communities and disrupted economic activity in many countries, including the US. On a twelve-month basis, overall price inflation and price increases for other than food and energy were running at below 2%. The Fed announced renewed quantitative easing of at least $500bn of Treasury purchases and $200bn of mortgage-backed securities “in the coming months”.  It was “prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.”

    That day the Fed made two other announcements. The first detailed arrangements for the encouragement of credit expansion to support both consumers and businesses, including the reduction of reserve ratios for all banks to zero. The second concerned the reduction of costs in drawing down USD swap lines at the other major central banks. They were followed over the course of the week by a series of announcements facilitating the availability of credit.

    Clearly, the Fed was engaging the ultimate in aggressive monetary policies. And taking a phrase from the last head of the ECB, the Fed had signalled it was prepared to do whatever it takes without limitation. But the response in the markets took a week to develop into an inflection point, a normal pause before a new direction is found.

    Central bank inflation and bank credit difficulties

    Since the Fed is one step removed from the non-financial economy it relies on commercial banks to implement its monetary policy. But commercial banks will only act as the Fed’s agents if they are confident the rewards are greater than the risks involved. If the current crisis is simply a matter of the coronavirus being contained before everything returns to normal, then bankers might be prepared to take a punt on an increase of bank lending.

    But as time passes, the losses mount. Business and consumer defaults are increasing, and the prospects for a rapid recovery appear to be receding. Furthermore, liquidity strains in the banking system are resurfacing, despite the massive injections of QE by the Fed. After subsiding from the panicky days of last September, overnight repos are on the increase again totalling anything between $20—$100bn daily.

    It has been generally forgotten that the global economy was already facing a recession before the virus lockdowns. Trade wars between America and China and bank credit expansion having run for a decade were a repeat of the conditions that led to the Wall Street Crash in 1929, when the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act following the roaring twenties was enacted, bank credit imploded, and the 1930s depression followed. Similarly, banks are now highly leveraged on their balance sheets and fear of bad debts has taken over from lending greed. The global banking cohort is increasingly desperate to reduce balance sheet commitments at the same time as the Fed and other central banks are frantic to see them expanded.

    It is no wonder that the Fed’s expansion has remained bottled up in financial markets, driving financial assets even further into dangerous overvaluation territory. Consequently, without liquidity flowing more freely into the non-financial economy, bad debts can only deteriorate further, with loan risk rapidly increasing for commercial banks.

    Systemic issues are being ignored

    When the coronavirus first became an economic issue, there were mounting concerns over payment failures in supply chains. In the US, these payments are effectively the equivalent of gross output, which at the end of last year was running at $38 trillion. While we regard gross output as the value of products as they flow through their production stages, the payments flow the other way, back down the chains. Therefore, the $38 trillion figure can be taken as proxy for the sum of all supply chain payments in the US, to which must be added the dollar equivalents of supply chain payments outside the US for semi-manufactured imports.

    Not all supply chains have been completely disrupted, so the good news is payment disruptions onshore should be significantly less than $38 trillion but could easily be half that. But there is likely to be additional disruption from abroad, a point addressed by the Fed when it increased the number of central banks (but not China) having access to its swap lines.

    The risks to commercial banks are not so much from the largest corporations, likely to be bailed out if in trouble, but from lower tiers of borrowers. This affects banks with exposure to collateralised loan obligations, which are bundled loans to companies often unable to raise funds any other way — today’s version of the collateralised debt obligations that blew up the banking system in 2008. Additionally, banks have direct loans and revolving capital exposure on their balance sheets with all businesses in the $38 trillion of onshore supply chains.

    The market capitalisation of the US’s G-SIBs — global systemically important banks — is less than a trillion dollars. Yet the supply chain failures that they are expected to backstop are many trillions — multiple times their market capitalisation, and even of their balance sheet equity.

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    It seems hardly possible that the US banking system will survive the current supply chain disruption without help. The added bad news is that the US G-SIBs are rated much more highly in stock markets than their Chinese, Japanese, Eurozone, Swiss and UK competitors, shown in Figure 1 above. It indicates that a systemic failure in dollar-denominated financial markets is not widely expected, given the generally higher market ratings afforded to US G-SIBs than for those in other jurisdictions. This probably explains why this topic is not yet a significant issue for dollar investors, though individual bank failures are more obviously an issue in other jurisdictions, where some G-SIB price to book ratios are below 30% while those of US G-SIBs average 93%.

    The next significant event therefore will almost certainly be the failure of a G-SIB, if not in America, then elsewhere. Given the sheer scale of the problems in supply chains in all currencies and the accumulating bad debts attributable to lockdowns it could happen in a matter of weeks. Presumably, failing banks will be taken into public ownership with the Fed backstopping it with yet more inflationary finance. The impact on the Fed’s balance sheet, which has already grown to over $7 trillion will probably be several times its current size. But that, on its own, may not be enough to destroy the dollar.

    A more direct danger is posed from monetary policies aimed at supporting financial asset values. In common with other major central banks the Fed has become reliant on a policy of ultra-low interest rates to fund its government’s deficit. At the same time, there has been a longstanding belief, particularly in America, that rising prices for financial assets, chiefly stocks, have been vital to generate a wealth effect and therefore maintain public confidence in the economic outlook. In current markets, this overvaluation policy has been taken to extremes with even teenagers reportedly buying fractionalised stocks through aggregating platforms, such as Robinhood, as if it is a just another computer game.

    The dollar’s inevitable descent

    In more normal times the excessive speculation in the markets seen today would encourage the Fed to inject some caution into monetary policy; but the Fed cannot backtrack for fear of triggering a catastrophic collapse. Consequently, the future of the dollar has become firmly tied to that of confidence in financial markets.

    With a rapidly escalating budget deficit the US Government has a growing funding requirement, the cost of which already absorbs $400bn in interest charges annually. The Trump administration had increased its deficit to record levels in the good times when tax revenue was buoyant. And now the crisis has hit, higher interest rates will expose the US Government to a debt trap. This is a weapon the Fed cannot use.

    As noted above, the next market shock is likely to be a systemic failure in the banking system. It matters not where that occurs, but when it does it makes bank depositors autarkic. Not only do they withdraw funds from banks they deem to be at risk thereby increasing their problems, but they also reduce cross-border currency exposure. The dollar is most exposed of all currencies to the latter risk: on last known figures foreigners owned about $25 trillion in securities, short-term paper and bank deposits, while Americans held roughly half that invested mainly in illiquid production facilities abroad, limited portfolio exposure to listed securities and with very little liquid foreign currency exposure.

    In our headline chart we noted that the dollar’s turning point was 23 March and its subsequent downturn was part of a bigger commodity picture with gold, silver, copper and — belatedly — oil prices rising. In March, US TIC data showed that foreigners reduced their dollar exposure by $227.9bn, only offset by US residents’ net sales of foreign securities of $133.3bn.[ii] Here is the evidence that in troubled times money heads for home. Additionally, that month saw a trade deficit of $44.4bn suggesting total foreign-related dollar selling amounted to $177.7bn. This is only part of a bigger dollar picture, but it does appear foreigners were reducing their dollar exposure at the time that the dollar’s TWI peaked on 23 March.

    This is important, because there are two market factors that have always led to a fiat currency collapse. The first is selling by foreigners, which appears to have commenced, and in this respect the dollar is particularly exposed. With some $25 trillion invested in US securities etc., the potential destruction to the dollar’s purchasing power from this source is significant. As global trade shrinks further, not only will foreigners be driven by the need to redeploy dollars into their currencies of origin, but they will stop funding the US Government, choosing to sell down their US Treasury holdings, a process which has already started. If the Fed is to successfully fund the growing budget deficit it must absorb foreign sales of US Treasuries as well as maintain sufficient levels of QE to fund a rapidly increasing budget deficit.

    Just imagine the consequences of a systemic failure. The spell cast over financial assets will be broken. First, investors and speculators are likely to turn their attention to equities, being obviously the most overvalued financial assets at a time of intensifying crisis. Foreign investors will join, selling down their portfolio exposure, repatriating some, if not all of the proceeds by selling dollars as well. Next, with a falling dollar and a growing sensitivity to the political aspect of the crisis, market participants will reassess the US Government’s funding requirements and question the yield suppression policy of the Fed. Dollar selling seems bound to intensify.

    It will then become obvious to everyone that the Fed is sacrificing the dollar in order to fund the government, keep the banking system going and to support the economy by attempting to provide the liquidity to defray supply chain failures. It will already be demonstrably failing to support financial asset prices, which has become the visible manifestation of a successful monetary policy. It would be a miracle if this failure, in Trump’s election year with a socialistic president being lined up by the Democrats, does not lead to a full-blown financial and dollar crisis.

    Unless the Fed can raise interest rates to the point where it is too expensive for speculators to short the dollar (which we can rule out), it will enter the second phase of its collapse, driven by US residents realising the dollar is losing purchasing power, rather than prices rising. The purchasing power of any money depends on the balance between money and goods maintained by its users. If they collectively reject the money in favour of goods, then money’s purchasing power declines, potentially to zero. Following foreign selling, this is the second phase of the destruction of a fiat currency, which in past examples have taken roughly six months for it to become worthless.

    There are three factors that could shorten this timescale even further: the replacement of cash and cheques by digital payments, modern communications leading to the rapid spread of information, and as a consequence of the development of cryptocurrencies, wider public foreknowledge of the weaknesses of unbacked fiat currencies.

    The case for fiat currency survival beyond 2020

    The circumstantial evidence that the dollar will collapse before the year-end is mounting. Cassandra opened her casket, the evils escaped, and only hope remains trapped.

    Or so it seems. We cannot divine the future. We can only sift the evidence, be aware of common fallacies and avoid the temptation to wrongly extrapolate from yesterday into the future. While our method may be better than the macroeconomic forecasting beloved of the establishment, a predicted outcome is never reality. And it is possible the US Treasury might attempt a reset, perhaps using Treasury dollars, otherwise known as greenbacks, which were last issued in 1971. But without axing government welfare commitments to the American public, returning to balanced budgets and abandoning Fed dollar denominated debt this sort of legerdemain is unconvincing. Furthermore, the dollar’s reserve role for other currencies would have to be abandoned because of the monetary inflation involved in Triffin’s dilemma. And other currencies tied to the Fed’s dollar held in their reserves would still face their own collapse.

    A reset abandoning the Fed’s dollar in favour of greenbacks is possible. But history has shown that the introduction of a replacement currency for one that has collapsed fails unless government financing by monetary expansion is demonstrably abandoned. Only time will tell whether in a presidential election year the US Government musters the clarity of purpose to implement a new lasting dollar regime.

    The US Treasury says it still has over 8,000 tonnes of gold. If it is willing to drop its neo-Keynesian economics and its long-standing denial of gold’s monetary function, America could reintroduce gold convertibility for the greenbacks. This would probably be a last resort. It reneges on the Fed’s balance sheet note — which in these conditions would be its only significant asset, involves the abandonment of the welfare state and America’s longstanding geopolitical aims, and it allows China to gain potential advantage by displacing the dollar with a more convincing gold convertibility of its own.

    China has deliberately cornered the gold bullion market in plans that go back to the time of Deng. Almost certainly, following the introduction of its Regulations on the Control of Gold and Silver (1983), the Chinese state accumulated sufficient gold for its strategic purposes by the time it then permitted its citizens to buy gold with the opening of the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2002. The gold acquired by the state at that time is not declared as monetary gold and the quantity is unknown, but after examining inward investment flows net of trade deficits in the 1980s and growing export surpluses subsequently, a ten per cent allocation of foreign exchange gained into gold at contemporary prices suggests a position of some 20,000 tonnes of bullion was likely to have been accumulated by 2002.

    There is no way of establishing the facts, and therefore statements about the Chinese state’s ownership of bullion are necessarily speculative. But additional evidence is compelling:

    • China is now the largest gold mining nation by far, extracting an estimated 4,200 tonnes since 2010, more than any other nation. This has been driven by government policy.

    • The state controls all Chinese gold and silver refining, taking in doré from abroad to add to Chinese stocks. At the same time, virtually no Chinese refined gold kilo bars are permitted to leave the country.

    • In 2002, when the Shanghai Gold Exchange was set up by the Peoples’ Bank of China the Chinese government encouraged its nationals to acquire physical gold, even advertising its attractions in state media. Since 2010 alone, 17,200 tonnes have been delivered into public hands by the SGE. These figures were achieved by importing bullion from the West in enormous quantities.

    • Its allies in Asia, principally members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, have also been acquiring gold. Russia has been particularly aggressive in dumping dollars for gold.

    • China now dominates physical gold markets and can be said to control them.

    Given all these verifiable facts, it seems unlikely that a state which centrally plans would not have acquired for its own use substantial quantities of bullion ahead of the establishment of the SGE. America knows it and continues to resist gold having a monetary role. If America’s anti-gold policy changed, it would restrict the dollar’s circulation abroad. It would mark the end of dollar hegemony and a gold-backed yuan would become the foreign currency of choice throughout Asia, eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

    Conclusions and consequences

    A banking crisis in the coming weeks is an increasingly likely event, given the scale of disruption to supply chains. The escalation of bankruptcies and of non-performing loans worldwide will almost certainly take the banking system down. It will be a watershed, a wake-up call to all those who expect a return to normality after the coronavirus passes.

    For the moment, central banks are throwing money at the problem; money which remains stuck in financial assets, inflating them even further, and not being transmitted to the non-financial economy by banks already over-leveraged to failing borrowers.

    We can be certain central bankers and government treasury departments are only now grasping the enormity of these problems, but they are still behaving as if chucking money at them is a viable solution. They will only destroy their unbacked fiat currencies, and that destruction, starting with the dollar, is already in progress. The clock is ticking from 23 March. While there may be attempts at a fiat money reset, without clear legal commitments from central banks and treasury departments to end inflationary financing, any reset will only delay currency destruction by a matter of months.

    The consequences of such an outcome are always devastating, the more so because all major westernised central banks are committed to the same inflationary policies at the same time. The political consequences do not bear thinking about.

    At some stage, hopefully sooner rather than later, metallic money will regain circulation. And when prices are set in gold or silver, perhaps through fully backed substitutes, the stability they bring will end the trappings of fiat currencies. All this destruction is measured in current terms, nearly all from statistics collected by the Bank for International Settlements.

    Gone will be worldwide fiat currency debt, amounting to some $250—$300 trillion. Gone will be all OTC derivatives which settle in fiat, amounting to a further $560 trillion. Gone will be listed derivatives, a further $33 trillion. Gone will be options, a further $65 trillion. All these, totalling over $900 trillion, are only part of the destruction.

    Global deposits held as bank balances totalling $60 trillion will evaporate. Worldwide equity markets denominated in fiat are a further $70 trillion; anything that does not migrate from fiat pricing disappears, including most, if not all ETFs. Goodbye to hedge funds. Goodbye to offshore financial centres. Goodbye to onshore financial centres. Goodbye to $100 trillion of fiat money.

    Life will be very different, and those not prepared for it, principally by retaining a store of non-fiat, sound money, which can only be physical gold and silver until credible substitutes arise, will face impoverishment. Measured in real money, the value of non-financial physical assets will collapse due to the preponderance of desperate sellers to whom survival is most important, even though priced in worthless fiat their prices will have risen. The experience of inflationary collapses in Germany and Austria in the early 1920s showed the way, when country estates went for almost nothing in gold-back dollars and $100 would buy a mansion in Berlin.

    None of this is expected. It may not happen, but the chances of it happening  appear to have increased significantly from 23 March.

  • Trump Admin To Name Most Recipients Of Bailout Loans
    Trump Admin To Name Most Recipients Of Bailout Loans

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 22:23

    When the government said it would give out thousands of dollars in bailout loans grants under the Paycheck Protection Program, every eligible business – which was most small and medium businesses (that had no access to capital markets) with up to 500 employees, signed up. And why not: it was free money from a government that had launched helicopter money, and was seeking to ram the newly created money into the economy. There was no downside – the grants would be forgiven if used to pay wages or rent, and – at least according to widespread speculation – the loans would remain a secret. Which is why it was so surprising when it emerged that some “asset managers” such as Ritholtz Asset Management, led by Josh Brown and Barry Ritholtz, had also accepted bailout grants to stay in business. In retrospect, Ritholtz is the author of Bailout Nation so it probably should not have been a surprise.

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    What should have been a surprise is that an asset manager – i.e., a professional collecting generous fees to predict the future and entrusted with billions in capital not only failed to do that, but himself needed a bailout. It just goes to show how important it is to pick very calm and patient clients.

    Of course, we can’t blame them: like most other recipients, Ritholtz probably expected that his name would never see the light of day, even though technically he used taxpayer money to prop up his company. And since it is taxpayer money, everyone has a right to know how it would be used.

    Only in the case of just over half a trillion dollars in PPP grants that wasn’t the case, because for nearly 3 months after the PPP program was launched, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin persisted in keeping the names of all recipients secret, much to the growing anger of those who effectively funded the loans.

    That all changed late on Friday, when Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration said it would disclose details about companies that received loans of $150,000 or more from a coronavirus relief program for small businesses, following a backlash against its earlier refusal to release data about which firms got billions of dollars in government aid. Eleven news organizations had sued to make details about PPP loan recipients public.

    Which is bad news for all those “financial advisors” like Ritholtz who will soon be revealed as getting paid to “predict” the future, yet not having the sense to even budget for a short-term crisis, let along have hedges in place for a downside scenario. As for the rest, it’s unclear how willing most small businesses would have been had they known that the very act of requesting a bailout would open them up to eventual public shaming.

    The company names, addresses, demographic data and other information will be disclosed in five ranges starting with $150,000 to $350,000 and going up to between $5 million and $10 million, the Treasury Department and Small Business Administration said in a joint statement.

    For loans below $150,000, only totals will be released aggregated by zip code, by industry, by business type, and by various demographic categories, the agencies said. The loans above $150,000 account for almost 75% of the total loan dollars approved, they said. It wasn not clear when the data would be released.

    According to the latest SBA data, loans had been approved for almost 4.7 million small businesses totaling $514.5 billion. As of June 12, there were 3.9 million loans of less than $150,000 totaling $136.7 billion and almost 650,000 larger loans worth $375.6 billion.

    * * *

    Lawmakers had been demanding the disclosure of details about Paycheck Protection Program loans after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said at a Senate committee hearing on June 10 that the names of companies that received forgivable loans and the amounts were proprietary or confidential – even though as Bloomberg notes, the administration had previously said the details would be disclosed, and the PPP application says such data will “automatically” be released.

    Officials had expressed concerns about releasing the details because a company’s payroll is used to determine the loan amount, and some independent contractors and small businesses use their home addresses that would be disclosed.

    “I am pleased that we have been able to reach a bipartisan agreement on disclosure which will strike the appropriate balance of providing public transparency, while protecting the payroll and personal income information of small businesses, sole proprietors, and independent contractors,” Mnuchin said in a statement.

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    Critics said the public has a right to know how taxpayer dollars were used and that more detail was needed to know whether PPP was serving businesses that need help.

    “The administration’s decision to hide basic PPP loan data is a disturbing sign of its lack of concern for who gets this funding, how much they receive or why,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a June 12 statement. “The administration must immediately reverse this decision and uphold its obligation to release this data.”

    Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, chairman of the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Committee, said the public deserves to know how effective the PPP has been, but that there are legitimate concerns about disclosing information about small firms. “Today’s announcement strikes a balance between those concerns and the need for transparency,” Rubio said in a statement.

    Lawmakers have also called on Treasury and the SBA to provide details about its coronavirus relief loans to the Government Accountability Office, which is preparing a report about how relief dollars were spent.

  • Prepping: 15 Things That Will Happen When The Economy Finally Collapses
    Prepping: 15 Things That Will Happen When The Economy Finally Collapses

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 22:00

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    We should all be prepared for what’s coming next.  In order to prepare effectively, we need to know what will happen when the economy finally collapses under its own weight.  The creation of money out of thin air could only go on for so long, and we are approaching the end.

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    Epic Economist put together a great video detailing the 15 things (and yes, some are a little scary) that will happen when the economy collapses.  At this point in time and history, it is no surprise that an economic collapse is coming for us. When the world’s largest economy is deep down in a recession, many other countries will not be late to follow the same path.

    The financial breakdown the world is about to face over the next few years will be an unprecedented catastrophe, especially considering that the underlying problems from previous crashes were never fixed, only mended together. A real repair would require a complete restructuration in the system, and the elites were never interested in fixing the system that they set up to screw the rest of us.

    These are the 15 things that will happen that you should be prepared for:

    1 -Fuel Shortages, or rationing of fuel

    2 -Carjackings rise

    3- Interstate Trucking is compromised, limiting the supply of essential goods

    4-Defaults in garbage disposal and urban sanitation

    5- Food scarcity, a disruption in food supply chains

    6-Water quality drops

    7-The population gets on survival mode, one example of this could be the slaughtering of zoo animals for food.

    8-Pets go missing

    9-Civil agitation leads to turbulence in the streets

    10-Attacks become more frequent

    11-Kidnappings Increase

    12-Gang Activity Increases

    13-Banks Close

    14-Hospitals become Overloaded

    15-Martial Law Enacted

    Knowing that these things are likely to happen when the economy collapses should help give you an idea of what you’re going to need to be prepared.  Make sure you know how to defend yourself and your family. Make sure you have a way to filter water.  You will need to be able to avoid crowds and live on your own, potentially off the grid. Become self-reliant and do not put your faith in the system.  Most people are still desperately fighting to keep the system intact in spite of the awareness that it’s rigged and corrupt.  Instead, leave the system, put your faith in yourself, improve critical thinking skills, and create your back up plans.

  • Majority Of Americans Oppose Renaming Military Bases & Reparations: ABC/Ipsos Poll
    Majority Of Americans Oppose Renaming Military Bases & Reparations: ABC/Ipsos Poll

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 21:35

    The recent George Floyd protests and riots have triggered broader debates of everything ranging from removal of Confederate monuments and statues, to renaming Confederate military bases and even memorials to American founding fathers, especially ones that had connections to slavery.

    In the latest controvery, for examples, New York City council members are pushing to remove a long-standing Thomas Jeffeson statue from city hall. As statues across the country continue to be subject to vandalism and in some cases toppling, there’s yet to be little public debate or surveying of the American people.

    One new poll conducted by ABC News and Ipos released Friday, however, suggests the wave of removals and ‘renamings’ remains unpopular on a national level. At a moment iconic base names like Fort Bragg and Fort Hood could be on the chopping block with enough political momentum gained, a majority of Americans oppose the renaming initiative. The Pentagon is said to actually be considering it.

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    XVIII Airborne Corps Headquarters sign at Fort Bragg, N.C., US Army image.

    “While 56% are opposed to changing U.S. military bases named for Confederate leaders, which stand as a reminder of the nation’s complicated history with race, 42% of Americans support the move,” ABC reports of the poll conducted among 727 adults from June 17 to 18.

    The survey further asked about reparations for slavery: “Nearly three-fourths of Americans believe that the federal government should not provide payments to black Americans whose ancestors were slaves to compensate for the toll of slavery. Only 26% of Americans are in favor of reparations,” the poll found.

    Here are the highlights of ABC News/Ipsos survey via Newsmax:

    • 56% are against renaming military bases that currently bear the name of Confederate leaders. Party-wise, 71% of Democrats support changing the names, while 13% of Republicans and 40% of independents do.
    • 73% said they oppose the federal government paying black Americans whose ancestors were slaves. 54% of Democrats are in favor of reparations, while 94% of Republicans and 82% of independents are against the practice.
    • 63% said they support a ban on police officers using chokeholds.

    The poll further found that among black Americans, 67% surveyed want to see the bases renamed.

    The broader unpopularity of things like base name changes could be why in many instances Black Lives Matter protesters are taking matters in their own hands and defacing and toppling statues linked to the Confederacy.

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    However, as we’ve recently noted, any colonial era or even 19th century historical figures are being attacked, even well-known abolitionists in a few cases.

  • Buchanan: Can We Coexist With Asia's Communists?
    Buchanan: Can We Coexist With Asia’s Communists?

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 21:10

    Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

    Wednesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met for seven hours at Hickam Air Force Base in Hawaii with the chief architect of China’s foreign policy, Yang Jiechi.

    The two had much to talk about.

    As The Washington Post reports, the “bitterly contentious relationship” between our two countries has “reached the lowest point in almost half a century.”

    Not since Nixon went to China have relations been so bad.

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    Early this week, Chinese and Indian soldiers fought with rocks, sticks and clubs along the Himalayan truce line that dates back to their 1962 war. Twenty Indian soldiers died, some pushed over a cliff into a freezing river in the highest-casualty battle between the Asian giants in decades.

    Among the issues surely raised with Pompeo by the Chinese is the growing bipartisan vilification of China and its ruling Communist Party by U.S. politicians the closer we come to November.

    The U.S. has been putting China in the dock for concealing information on the coronavirus virus until it had spread, lying about it, and then letting Wuhan residents travel to the outside world while quarantining them inside China.

    In America, it has become good politics to be tough on China.

    The reasons are many.

    • High among them are the huge trade deficits with China that led to an historic deindustrialization of America, China’s emergence as the world’s first industrial power, and a U.S. dependency on Chinese imports for the vital necessities of our national life.

    • Then there is the systematic theft of intellectual property from U.S. companies in China and Beijing’s deployment of thousands of student-spies into U.S. colleges and universities to steal security secrets.

    • Then there is the suppression of Christianity, the denial of rights to the people of Tibet and the discovery of an archipelago of concentration camps in western China to “reeducate” Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs to turn them into more loyal and obedient subjects.

    • Among the strategic concerns of Pompeo: China’s fortification of islets, rocks and reefs in the South China Sea and use of its warships to drive Vietnamese, Malaysian, Indonesian and Philippine fishing vessels out of their own territorial waters that China now claims.

    • Another worry for Pompeo: China’s buildup of medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, a nuclear arsenal not contained or covered by the Cold War arms agreements between Russia and the United States.

    • Then there were those provocative voyages by a Chinese aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait to intimidate Taipei and show Beijing’s hostility toward the recently reelected pro-U.S. government on the island.

    • Finally, there are China’s growing restrictions on the freedoms the people of Hong Kong have enjoyed under the Basic Law negotiated with the United Kingdom when the territory was ceded back to Beijing in 1997.

    Also on the menu at Hickam was almost surely the new bellicosity out of Pyongyang. This week, the building in Kaesong, just inside North Korea, where bilateral peace talks have been held between the two Koreas, was blown up by the North. With the explosion came threats from the North to send combat troops back into positions they had vacated along the DMZ.

    The rhetoric out of the North against South Korean President Moon Jae-in, coming from the 32-year-old sister of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, the rising star of the regime, Kim Yo Jong, has been scalding.

    In a statement this week, Kim Yo Jong derided Moon as a flunky of the Americans:

    “It is our fixed judgment that it is no longer possible to discuss the North-South ties with such a servile partner engaging only in disgrace and self-ruin, being soaked by deep-rooted flunkyism.”

    North Korea’s state media published photos of the destruction of the joint liaison office. Pyongyang is shutting off communications with Seoul, and a frustrated South looks to be ginning up and reciprocating.

    The North-South detente appears dead, and President Trump’s special relationship with Kim Jong Un may not be far behind.

    There are rumors of a renewal of nuclear weapons and long-range missile tests by the North, suspension of which was one of the diplomatic achievements of Trump.

    Whether Trump’s cherished trade deal with China can survive the growing iciness between the two nations remains to be seen.

    What the Chinese seem to be saying with their actions — against India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Australia, Hong Kong and Japan — is this: Your American friends and allies are yesterday. We are tomorrow. The future of Asia belongs to us. Deal with it!

    No one should want a hot war, or a new cold war, with China or North Korea.

    But if Trump was relying on his special relationships with Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping, his trade deal with China and his commitment by Kim to give up nuclear weapons for recognition, trade and aid, he will have to think again.

    For the foreseeable future, Communist bellicosity out of Beijing and Pyongyang seem in the cards, if not worse.

  • Wealthy Homeowners In 'Mad Rush' To Flee San Francisco
    Wealthy Homeowners In ‘Mad Rush’ To Flee San Francisco

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 20:45

    “There’s a mad rush to get out of the city,” said Ginger Martin, a real estate agent with Sotheby’s who concentrates on high-end properties in the San Francisco Bay Area. “What I’m really doing well with right now is anything that’s turnkey.”

    The virus pandemic, economic crash, and social unrest has resulted in wealthy folks in the Bay Area ditching the city for suburbs. 

    Bloomberg notes demand for real estate is soaring in the rural communities of the Bay Area, from Marin County to Napa wine country and south to Monterey’s Carmel Valley, brokers are reporting wealthy folks are leaving the downtown area. 

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    “I’ve never seen the demand higher for Marin County real estate than when Covid-19 hit,” said Josh Burn, a real estate agent with Sotheby’s. 

    Relocation, at the moment, is only by wealthy folks, who still have the financial mobility to move as the real economy implodes and paralyzes the bottom 90% of Americans. Even with a good credit score, lenders are not preapproving folks like they once were. Many people over the years flooded into San Francisco as the economy boomed, and tech flourished. Now with an economic downturn, social unrest, and pandemic — the city is becoming too dangerous to raise a family. 

    “This is an example of another way the most advantaged, the most affluent have isolated themselves from this latest crisis,” said Patrick Sharkey, a sociology professor at Princeton University who focuses on urban inequality. “It’s a very small segment of the population that has another home that they can go take off to.”

    Sharkey is implying that smart money is exiting Bay Area real estate as the social fabric in the downtown district begins to unstitch. 

    Wealthy folks from San Francisco are dumping real estate and are quickly moving to these locations:

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    For instance, Martin said one wealthy client left the Bay Area and purchased a $10.85 million Napa property with one acre of land, situated around a winery. 

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    4227 Big Ranch Road in Napa, California was listed for $10.85 million. h/t Bloomberg

    It’s unclear if the exodus from city life for country living is short term to escape the chaos in San Francisco, or if this trend is only in the beginning stages. 

    Ed Glaeser, an urban economist at Harvard University, said the latest events playing out in American cities suggests “a large suburban home is going to become very attractive relative to having urban space.” 

    A combination of the virus pandemic and social unrest could “delay a recovery in the appeal of urban areas,” said Deniz Kahramaner, the founder of data-focused real estate brokerage Atlasa.

    Not too long ago, we noted how demand for rural and suburban properties increased since the start of the pandemic.

    Smart money is quietly leaving big cities — and, by the way, they’re also leaving many other metro areas across the country. 

  • Are We On The Cusp Of A New Progressive Era?
    Are We On The Cusp Of A New Progressive Era?

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 20:20

    Authored by Patrick Newman via The Mises Institute,

    The 2020s started off horrendously. Thanks to an exaggerated coronavirus pandemic, government lockdowns sunk the economy into the most serious recession since the Great Depression. From February to April 2020, industrial production collapsed by 15.2 percent and official unemployment figures skyrocketed from 3.5 percent to 14.7 percent. To put these numbers in perspective, during the Great Recession industrial production fell by a similar amount (17.3 percent) from December 2007 to June 2009 and unemployment “only” peaked at 10 percent in October 2009. In other words, the current recession is breaking all of the wrong records.

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    In order to prevent the economy from completely imploding, the US government engaged in massive expansionary monetary and fiscal policy. From February to April the Federal Reserve exploded its assets by $2.5 trillion and pumped up the money supply (M2) by 14.6 percent. On the fiscal side, in late March Congress passed a belt-busting $2 trillion stimulus bill, and in mid-May the House passed another stimulus bill of $3 trillion. Then in early June Fed chairman Jerome Powell declared that low interest rates were here to stay indefinitely.

    If current political and economic trends continue, the 2020s will usher in a new period of drastically increased government activity and regulation of the economy. Despite justification on the grounds of public interest and cutting-edge modern “science,” these interventions promise to be thoroughly crony: they will enrich favored businesses, politicians, bureaucrats, intellectuals, and labor groups at the expense of the overall public. In short, the 2020 recession will usher in a new “Progressive Era” of the early 1900s, or, more accurately, another “Regressive Era.”

    Murray Rothbard brilliantly showed that during the Progressive Era, which mainstream academics and other proponents of intervention laud as the nation’s first step into modernity, big business, big government, big intellectuals, and big labor succeeded in securing cronyism that made it easier for corporations and trade associations to cartelize, for politicians to increase their power, for technocrats to exert influence over planning the economy, and for unions to exclude cheaper immigrant workers. These groups had failed to achieve their goals until the Panic of 1893 allowed William Jennings Bryan’s Populist Democrats to supplant Grover Cleveland’s laissez-faire Democrats, which ushered in political dominance by the moderate corporatist Republican Party. It unfortunately seems far too likely that the federal government will now pass similar legislation in the 2020s, such as corporate and safety regulation, environmental laws, welfare and other entitlements, and more taxation.

    In the name of weakening the trusts, eliminating “unsafe” products, and cleaning up “subpar” working conditions, the Progressives passed a flurry of business regulations that restricted entry, reduced production, and raised prices. Notable examples include the rejuvenation of the 1890 Sherman Antitrust Act, the creation of the Department of Commerce and Labor in 1903 (split into two departments in 1913), the Meat Inspection and Pure Food and Drug Acts of 1906, and establishment of the Federal Trade Commission in 1914. These new crony laws and agencies blocked hostile socialist legislation and also stymied free market pressures by raising compliance costs on newer, usually smaller, businesses and crippling price and product competition.

    The 2020s will most likely see similar business regulations. Even before the crisis, big tech welcomed new federal red tape over the internet in order to consolidate their market positions and stave off hostile antitrust suits from radical socialists and competing businesses. The current recession has already ushered in calls for formal coronavirus safety regulations in the workplace—a new “modern” age of federal, state, and local intrusiveness in the employer-employee relationship and how businesses cater to consumer desires. All of these laws, far from encouraging competition or protecting consumers, will just cartelize industries and raise relative compliance costs on smaller businesses that cannot afford to retool their facilities to meet new technology and safety restrictions.

    The Progressive Era also witnessed the enactment of conservationist laws and agencies. These interventions, such as the Reclamation Act of 1902 and the Public Lands and Inland Waterways Commissions (established in 1903 and 1907, respectively), funneled taxpayer funds into the research and development of certain methods of resource production, particularly irrigation, while restricting the use of various raw materials, such as timber. Although environmentalists advocated for these laws in order to preserve nature and encourage “ecofriendly” production processes, the legislation raised the prices of restricted lumber (benefitting the land speculators and railroads that owned competing reserves) and encouraged the uneconomic development of irrigation in the West.

    Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has led the modern environmentalist movement for a Green New Deal that would totally overhaul American society and enormously reduce well-being. This economic program—estimated by some to potentially cost a truly earth-shattering $93 trillion over the next decade—would “save the planet” by drastically restricting the usage of fossil fuels (which most of the world relies upon to maintain modern living standards) and encourage the production of ecofriendly energy sources that will supposedly make up the shortfall. After the recent crisis, supporters have argued that the population is already numb to drastic changes in living standards and will correspondingly be more receptive to the Green New Deal. If such a program is enacted, the government will pick winners and losers in the energy market like never before and open up a Pandora’s box of widespread cronyism and special interest subsidies.

    In the early 1900s, the wise stewards of the government did not stop at corporate and conservationist cronyism—they also looked out for the labor interests. In the 1910s the Progressives enacted compulsory workmen’s compensation laws on the state level that forced businesses and taxpayers to cough up funds for worker welfare. The federal government followed this up with the Federal Employees’ Compensation Act of 1916 (also known as the Kern-McGillicuddy Act), which provided workmen’s compensation to federal employees. Taxpayer funds socialized the costs of disability insurance, and the regulations raised compliance costs on businesses. The enactment of workmen’s compensation laws served as the opening wedge to the infamous Social Security Act of 1935.

    Andrew Yang gained notoriety during the presidential Democratic primary by advocating a “universal basic income” (UBI) of $1000 each month. Fortunately for Yang, the crisis has already led to a UBI of sorts through stimulus checks and generous unemployment benefits given to displaced workers. Now advocates are arguing for $2000 a month until the government decides that the coronavirus crisis is over. The results of these policies are already disastrous for the labor market’s recovery: a significant portion of the workforce is dependent on the US government (i.e., the taxpayer) and many smaller businesses cannot rehire workers, because they would actually take a pay cut. A new age of welfare and artificially high labor costs has dawned upon the nation.

    To pay for the cronyism of the Progressive Era—legislation diligently administered by job-seeking bureaucrats, scientists, and technocrats—the Progressives “reformed” government revenue with the Sixteenth Amendment of 1913, which legalized the income tax. The federal government could now extract from taxpayers funds far greater than what was possible with tariffs and excise taxes. Initially, the income tax applied only to the contemporary “1 percent,” but World War I extended the government’s depredations to the rest of the public. This ensured that the cost of government was shifted to up-and-coming entrepreneurs and the middle class.

    A similar situation could appear during the present recession or later in the decade. The cost of the current stimulus programs and projected future legislation simply cannot be financed under the current revenue system. One “solution” is to monetize the deficits, a disastrous option that would lead to runaway inflation. Another option is to embark upon wealth taxes—the siren song for advocates of redistribution—on the wealthiest members of society. Although advocates argue that they will only apply to the most “privileged” strata, the government net will inevitably extend to the rest of the population. This is because big businesses will use their political influence to spread the burden upon the less wealthy (Social Security, after all, is still a regressive tax) and governments will use the newfound source of revenue to spend beyond their initial estimates and will subsequently clamor for more money. The result of widespread wealth taxes will be a harsh disincentive to work, save, and innovate, all to the detriment of society.

    The results of the Progressive Era were not pretty, and this leads to ominous predictions for the 2020s. Corrupt politicians will always use recessions, crises, and changing political landscapes as justifications for special interest policies that provide benefits to their benefactors and constituents at the expense of society overall. The year 2020 has already provided all three excuses, which means we may be headed for another Regressive Era—a disaster for the economic recovery and Americans’ freedoms.

  • "Putin Wanted It": Dems Introduce Bill To Block Trump's Germany Troop Draw Down
    “Putin Wanted It”: Dems Introduce Bill To Block Trump’s Germany Troop Draw Down

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 19:55

    Earlier this month the White House controversially ordered a significant troop draw down from Germany after a decades-long build up as part of Cold War era deals. On June 5th President Trump directed the Pentagon to withdraw 9,500 US troops from Germany by September, following years of the administration severely criticizing lack of enough military spending from its NATO ally.

    A number of reports suggested a broader US troop pullout from Germany was popular among the German public, and some say that even within the ranks of the US military it is seen as a good thing – or rather Trump making good on prior ‘America first’ promises involving not being a global policeman. However, a number of retired generals have spoken out against it.

    But now Congressional Democrats are seeking to block the Germany drawdown. The bill introduced this week by Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY) imposes a number of severe conditions which most likely preclude such a troop exit.

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    US troops in Germany. Image: DPA/DW.com

    “The current U.S. troop presence in Germany is in the U.S. national security interest. Full stop,” Menendez said in a statement, according The Hill.

    Amazingly, the senator pulled the ‘Putin wanted it’ card, again suggesting that somehow Trump’s major foreign policy decisions are ultimately at the bidding of the Kremlin:

    “The administration has made no effort to explain how our country is stronger because of this drawdown decision. Because we’re not. This drawdown weakens America and Europe. And Vladimir Putin understands and appreciates that better than anyone.”

    The Democratic leaders say they have bi-partisan support for blocking a Germany troop reduction.

    Meanwhile Engel also played the Russia card, given the initial decades-long build-up of forces at multiple major bases in Germany were during the Cold War and aimed at the Soviets.

    Engel said “rather than heeding the overwhelming bipartisan rebuke from Congress about this scheme and its catastrophic consequences, President Trump has once again made foreign policy decisions based solely on his absurd affection for Vladimir Putin, a murderous dictator who has attacked America and our allies.”

    Given the number of anti-Russia hawks among Congressional Republicans, the Dems are indeed likely to gain bipartisan support in their efforts to stymie a troop reduction.

    Trump’s proposed reduction would result in a new “cap” of 25,000 maximum troop levels in the country. The WSJ had previously noted that “Under current practice, overall troop levels can rise to as high as 52,000 as units rotate in and out or take part in training exercises.”

    It’s commonly estimated that about 34,500 US troops are permanently assigned to Germany.

  • Why Washington, D.C. Is In Trouble: 7,780 Public Employees With $100,000+ Salaries Cost Taxpayers $1 Billion
    Why Washington, D.C. Is In Trouble: 7,780 Public Employees With $100,000+ Salaries Cost Taxpayers $1 Billion

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 19:30

    Authored by Adam Andrzejewski via Forbes.com,

    Local politicians in Washington, D.C. claim a $1.5 billion budget deficit due to the coronavirus pandemic. So, they’re lobbying Congress for a two-year $3.15 billion bailout.

    But the city’s financial woes aren’t stopping nearly 8,000 city government employees – including the mayor and city council – from bringing home six-figure salaries and higher.

    Washington’s leaders try and fail each year in their application for statehood, but they’re already out-earning their state counterparts.

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    Our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com found that Mayor Muriel Bowser earned $220,000 last year – an amount exceeding every governor of the 50 states ($202,000).

    What’s more, DC city councilmembers ($141,282) out-earned members of every state legislature – including New York ($130,000). DC city council chairman Philip Mendelson ($210,000) out-earned all members of Congress except for Speaker Nancy Pelosi ($223,500).

    We found school crossing guards routinely making $67,324; the abandoned vehicle program manager earning $97,913; a director of alcoholic beverages making $192,000; the city librarian earning $223,863; city psychiatrists billing up to $260,000; and the city administrator making $307,000.

    Our interactive mapping tool allows users to quickly review every public employee in Washington, D.C. making more than $100,000 (by ZIP code). Just click a pin and scroll down to see the results in your neighborhood rendered in the chart beneath the map.

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    Public employees in Washington, D.C. are some of the most highly compensated in the nation. 

    OPENTHEBOOKS.COM

    Every major agency in Washington, D.C., supports employees making more than $100,000 per year.

    Metropolitan Police Department (MPD): Police chief Peter Newsham ($273,156) out-earned every four-star general in the U.S. military ($268,332).

    Other MPD administrative positions out-earned the secretary of U.S. Department of Homeland Security ($179,700), one of the nation’s top law enforcement officials. Even the director of Police Complaints made $214,273 last year.

    MPD Executive director Michael Tobin ($214,273); assistant chiefs Robert Contee and Lamar Greene ($207,454); supervisory attorney Advisor Terrence Ryan ($191,201); and commanders Willie Dandridge and Ralph Ennis ($188,112) also out-earned the DHS secretary.

    Public Schools: Chancellor Lewis Ferebee made $280,000 and out-earned U.S. Education Secretary Betsy Devos ($199,700). Nearly 2,250 educators with the K-12 schools made more than $100,000 last year.

    Four education deputies to the chancellor earned $228,363. Eleven chiefs received salaries up to $189,891 – including “chief of talent and culture” ($184,518) and “senior deputy chief of school culture” ($175,023). Another 19 “deputy chief” positions earned up to $155,798.

    Compared to the latest available national statistics, the DC schools have more than twice the number of administrators per student. Principals made up to $199,000, and 96 six-figure assistant principals earned up to $141,688.

    So, how are the students doing in the classroom? Proficiency on standardized tests ranged from an average of 30-percent in math to 35-percent in reading.

    Public Library: Executive Director Richard Reyes-Gavilan ($223,863) out-earned everyone employed at the National Archive and the Smithsonian Institution ($201,400). For additional context, the commissioner of the Chicago Public Library earned $167,004 last year.

    Other six-figure staffers included the General Counsel Grace Perry Gaiter ($188,113); Human Resources Director Barbara Ford-Kirven ($180,544); and Chief of Staff Joilette Mecks ($180,253). Those staffers joined another 50 library employees whose pay exceeded six-figures.

    Parks and recreation: The chief of staff (Jason Yuckenburg $180,000) out-earned the secretary at the U.S. Department of Interior ($175,700) – a cabinet level position whose agency manages one-fifth of all land in the USA.

    Other high earners in the DC parks department included the director (Delano Hunter $161,614) and deputy director (Ella Faulkner $150,000).

    Mayor’s office and administration: In addition to the mayor ($220,000), six other employees in the mayor’s office out-earned every U.S. governor.

    High earners included the city administrator (Rashad Young $307,000) and “deputy mayor(s)” include Health and Human Services (Wayne Turnage $225,915); Greater Economic Opportunity (Lucinda Babers $211,770); and Education (Paul Kihn $211,770). The mayor’s legal counsel (Ronald Ross $211,000) and the chief of staff (John Falcicchio $211,000) also received high pay.

    Our auditors found other interesting positions that paid well:

    School traffic control officers: In the DC public schools, there were 74 “officers of traffic control” that made between $60,000 and $70,000 last year. Management did even better: “traffic control” directors earned up to $156,840 and supervisors cleared $136,011.

    What do these crossing guards and officers do when school is out of session?

    Attorney Advisors: DC residents are likely unaware that they employ 232 legal advisors – their real job description is lawyer – who made up to $191,201. In fact, the Public Service Commission paid four “attorney advisor” positions $182,204. The DC attorney general has six advisory positions that paid $174,520.

    Supervisors of the attorney advisors earned even more money – up to $191,201 at the agencies of employment/disability and police/fire. The position at energy/environment paid $185,483.

    Public affairs officers: David Umansky handled the public relations for the city CFO and made $169,545 last year. Across city agencies, there were 77 PR officers employed and their average pay was six-figures.

    With the vast expansion of federal government during the last decade, the nation’s beltway is booming. It’s quite an economic subsidy when you’re the capitol seat.

    DC is flush with cash and rakes in more than enough money to pay its bills. It boasts assets of $5.8 billion compared to $4.9 billion in liabilities, according to watchdog group Truth In Accounting.

    Nevertheless, last month, The Heroes Act passed the U.S. House and would provide $3 billion over a two-year period earmarked for DC as a coronavirus bailout. The bill is stuck in the Senate.

    As city politicians continue to push their bailout and statehood agenda, it’s important to note that most would take a substantial pay cut if they actually mirrored the salary scale from the states.

    *  *  *

    Follow me on Twitter. Check out my website

  • Daily Briefing – June 19, 2020
    Daily Briefing – June 19, 2020


    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 19:25

    Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on a week of muted volatility amid a “quadruple witching” and unprecedented interventions from the world’s major central banks. Raoul and Ash analyze the ECB’s recent meeting around fiscal policy, and whether the Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BOE) will follow the Fed and go into “hyperdrive,” as Raoul puts it. The pair also discusses Apple’s decision to close stores in the U.S. as the coronavirus continues to spread. Lastly, the pair looks forward to the upcoming “Crypto Gathering” on Real Vision. In the intro, Jack Farley discusses the recent Wirecard scandal and gives an overview of new action in the burgeoning corporate debt market.

  • Bolton Might Miss Out On All Profits From His Tell-All Book
    Bolton Might Miss Out On All Profits From His Tell-All Book

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 19:05

    As the White House’s challenge to the publication of John Bolton’s book on National Security grounds winds its way through the federal courts, the judge overseeing the case said during a hearing on Friday that neither side may walk away with a clear victory.

    At this point, the judge conceded, there’s nothing to be done to suppress the information in the book. Its most salacious claims have already been made public thanks to a series of coordinated leaks.

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    But the courts can still strip Bolton of the right to profit from sales of the book, since he walked away from a final review.

    Here’s more from Bloomberg:

    Former National Security Advisor John Bolton likely jumped the gun in submitting his tell-all memoir on President Donald Trump for publication, but it’s probably too late to stop the sales of the book, a federal judge said.

    “The horse seems to be out of the barn” with hundreds of thousands of copies already circulating, U.S. District Judge Royce Lamberth in Washington said at a hearing over the government’s request to block the book’s release on June 23.

    Lamberth didn’t rule on the request but his comments indicate neither side in the dispute is set for a clear victory. While Bolton may succeed in getting the book out to the public, he may not get any profits from it as Lamberth said that Bolton walked away from a pre-publication review without getting the final sign-off as required.

    Bolton’s lawyer Chuck Cooper said Bolton followed his contract “not just in spirit, but to the letter.” But Lamberth jumped in and disagreed, saying that’s not true. Bolton “went out on his own,” the judge said. “I don’t really understand why he decided to take that risk.”

    Lamberth said he’ll hold another hearing on the dispute, in private.

    The judge also castigated Bolton’s legal team over their client’s penchant for stirring up drama by “going out on his own” during the middle of a high stakes review with the country’s national security interests at stake.

    It’s almost as if Secretary of State Mike Pompeo might have a point.

    But even if the book does make it to shelves without any issues, Bolton’s sales might not be as high as he and his publisher probably hope.

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  • Why Changing CHAZ To CHOP Is Actually A Very Big Deal
    Why Changing CHAZ To CHOP Is Actually A Very Big Deal

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 18:40

    Authored by Toby Cowern via The Organic Prepper blog,

    I just wanted to share with you a couple of thoughts that have been on my mind lately and see how it resonates with you out there. It has been very interesting for me in tracking the rioting that’s predominately been going on in the US. It’s obviously happening in other countries as well in support of the Black Lives Matter movement and other organizations emerging around their concerns of systemic racism in the US.

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    One thing for those reading from the US: I don’t know if you’re aware of how widespread the support for that movement and this message actually is? Even here in Sweden, we’ve seen protests occurring in different areas, as well as clashes with the police under these slogans and banners.

    Protesters have taken over several blocks in Seattle.

    In the US on June 8th, a group of protesters took over a 6 block area in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Seattle, Washington. A Black Lives Matter protest escalated and the police were driven out of the local precinct.  The group set up blockades barring law enforcement from entering the area and set up camp under the acronym CHAZ.

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    Photo Credit: Derek Simeone – Welcome to CHAZ

    Within the zone, they set up a display dedicated to people who died at the hands of police and Black Lives Matter. Many buildings now bear BLM graffiti

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    Photo Credit: Jzesbaugh

    There’s also a large street mural.

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    Photo Credit: By Kyle Kotajarvi

    Descriptions of the area vary from it being a dangerous warzone to a utopian street fair. Politico says that Fox News is completely misleading readers and viewers and that Black Lives Matters organizers are running it, although other groups are also involved.

    But it’s Fox that has been all over the story of the so-called Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone or CHAZ (which its Black Lives Matter organizers on Saturday renamed the Capitol Hill Organized Protest, CHOP): four-plus blocks of street and sidewalk in Seattle’s traditional gay and bohemian nightlife district, surrounding a boarded-up police precinct headquarters that the mayor ordered vacated last Monday to dampen a week-and-a-half of escalating confrontations between police and protesters. From there, the fluid protests, spearheaded by BLM but involving a wide spectrum of activists and ordinary citizens, coalesced with surprising rapidity into something like a provisional government. (source)

    They have a list of demands, which you can read here.

    The first thing that has my attention is the name change.

    One thing that really stuck out in my mind happened just a few days ago. The Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone, known as the CHAZ, changed its name to the Capitol Hill Occupy Protests. So it’s now CHOP. It’s very easy to dismiss that as something very small and insignificant. I see a lot of people when they’re writing, still calling it the CHAZ, and even to the extent of some mocking the name change: with “See? They can’t even decide what they are called’ type of commentary…

    Why is this important to me? Why does this get my attention?

    A couple of things really.

    One, it’s about seeing if people are ‘on-script’. So if people are supporting that cause specifically, how quickly do they change the vocabulary? How quickly do they adopt new terminology? How “onboard” are they with the message?

    That’s important for tribal identity reasons. Tribal identity is a very important factor in the strength of the movement going forwards. The second reason it’s important is that they were losing some ground under the title of CHAZ. These occupiers were losing some PR ground. They were getting mocked, basically, because people were saying, “Well, you’re not autonomous, you know. You’ve declared this an independent state. You’re saying you’re not part of America. Autonomous should mean self-sufficient and you’re clearly not. You’re constantly asking for help. You’re constantly asking for handouts. You’re constantly asking for donations. You’re constantly asking for support, so you’re not autonomous.”

    So switching to CHOP, or as another “occupy” protest, basically mutes out that public relations problem because they no longer claim autonomy.

    Now that’s very slick. That’s very savvy. That’s very smart, actually.

    And that goes to a deeper part of the problem.

    It’s very easy to look at this as just a scraggly, ragtag bunch of people just sort of wandering around with this Utopian vision. But this small thing really shows a much deeper commitment, leadership, structure, and ability. An order has come down from somewhere and is very quickly spread throughout the key people, and then down to the ‘foot soldiers’, “This is what we will now be called and this is why.”

    Now we can look at it as a kind of PR swing, which in and of itself would be quite worrisome that they can be so on-message. But in addition to this, we should note how quickly the change was implemented, communicated, and adopted.

    But then what’s really captured me is the name: Capitol Hill Occupied Protest.

    Do you remember Occupy Wall Street?

    The Occupy Movement gained strength from the back of the financial crisis in the last decade, and notably from 2009, swelled. You may remember, the political slogan was, “We are the 99%.” It peaked in 2011 with the Occupy Wall Street movement. So the Occupy movement is much much, much bigger enabler and tribal identity. In fact, there were Occupy movement protests through 2010 onwards in 31 different countries, and most of those were major Western countries.

    So this is now basically allowing, tempting, and goading those people who identified with the Occupy movement to join and rally around this cause. There may have been a small sort of core key group, perhaps Antifa-type in the beginning, getting the boots on the ground, actually, performing the occupation, and now they can broaden out and become more widespread.

    I think we’re going to see a very sharp consolidation of the power base of this movement and you’re going to see a massive increase in the ranks.

    This is notable for me in two different ways.

    One is timing. As of publication, it’s June the 19th. So you’re just two weeks short of July the fourth, or America’s Independence Day, which is obviously a massively iconic date and not only in the US. It’s interesting again, that a lot of Western countries have sort of adopted their own July 4th variation. It’s not exactly a worldwide holiday, but certainly a day of note. In two weeks, a lot can happen. We’ve seen that often this year. It’s enough time for major additional plans to be put in place and so this 4th of July could be very eventful.

    Then there’s the second point that’s gotten my attention.

    Think back to 2009-2011 – this was the real peak of the Occupy movement. We’re now in 2020. We’re nine years on.

    So those young, idyllic people that were the main rank and file of that movement are 10 years older now. Those who were quite high profile students from good universities were getting behind this, what positions are they in nowadays? They’re going to be sitting at mid, or high-level management in major corporations. They’re going to have a whole other sphere of influence.

    Or they might be on the city council.

    A Seattle City Council member, Kshama Sawant, was part of the original Occupy Wall Street protests and is also part of this one.

    While the protest does have some loose leadership, there are few formal structures. Sawant compares the space to the “Night of 500 tents” during the Occupy Wall Street movement in Seattle in October 2011, of which she was a part. Back then, Occupy protesters were able to drive police from their space before police returned and cleared out the area where the protests took place.

    Already, said Sawant, CHOP has outlasted what they were able to achieve with that Occupy action, which only lasted three days. But she said she expects police to clear the area sometime in the near future. “I don’t think that we can in any way assume that the police will not come back and specifically attack this space,” she said. “I think we should expect that that could happen at any moment, because that’s exactly what happened in Occupy.” (source)

    No longer is this about wearing a funny t-shirt and waving a flag on the street and feeling the reward of being ‘part of the crowd’ anymore. These people have progressed into places that they have major corporate clout.

    And that leads to funding.

    In the last week, there is something that has been notable in a way that I can’t say I’ve seen before with any of the previous campaigns. And that is how many major companies are openly pledging their support, either specifically for Black Lives Matter, or for affiliate organizations.

    I’m not getting into the rights and wrongs of tackling racism. That’s not what this post is about. This is about identifying and really highlighting to you how keeping an eye on the big circle is worth it. These kinds of moments should get your attention.

    Now we’re looking at major corporate identification, either through genuine backing of the cause, societal pressure, or the perception of societal pressure. I imagine that people in boardrooms are saying, “If we don’t get on board with this campaign, we really risk running a loss here or hurting our bottom line or affecting our sales base,” whichever the case may be.

    Virtue signaling now begins to transform into more tangible corporate action. The key thing I’m seeing in the emails that I receive is donations. Big companies are saying. “We support this cause and we’re actively putting money into it.”

    And it’s significant sums, like $50,000 a week, $100,000 a month, a one-time donation of $250,000. So not only are we seeing an increase in the number of participants, we’re seeing a massive increase in funding. And I do believe there was already significant funding for these organizations anyway.

    This is all piled onto a situation that clearly has concise and controlling leadership behind it.

    We’re trending toward a perfect storm.

    I read a huge amount of news on a daily basis just to kind of track everything from China to America, and everything in between, locally, upscale, and downscale. When something really gets my attention, it is leaping out of a massive information maelstrom.

    What I’m trying to highlight here is more of a thought process. You need to consume the news but not be consumed by it. But allowing yourself to absorb a wide stream of information from broad and varying sources gives you the chance, every now and then, too see how certain ‘key things’ fit together and gives the possibility of better trend assessment and therefore, a prediction.

    I’m not going to say this is perfect storm territory yet, but it’s definitely trending in that direction. It’s something that I’m keeping my eye on more and more.  I just wanted to share with you a little bit of what was going through my thoughts in the last two or three days.

    What I’d love on this particular issue is for you to please comment below if you’re seeing the same things? Are you getting those emails from companies pledging support? Are you hearing from work colleagues or friends or family that this is a movement they’re increasingly getting behind and they feel that they need to do something? Where is everybody else out with this?

    And this isn’t just an American question. Again, go right back to the beginning. These movements are occurring in different countries at various levels of tenacity. And we’re definitely seeing the spread.

    So wherever you’re based, please do share your observations, if you care to, in the comments below. Thank you so much.

  • "Frugal Four" Block Deal On Coronavirus Rescue Package Over Grants To Worst-Hit Countries
    “Frugal Four” Block Deal On Coronavirus Rescue Package Over Grants To Worst-Hit Countries

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 18:20

    The abrupt EU virtual summit held this week to try to break an impasse on a deal to finance the EU’s coronavirus rescue package before the continent slides into what many fear will be a punishing recession – perhaps even brutal enough to finally break up the eurozone – has ended in failure, with the “frugal four” – as they’re called in the European press – having garnered enough support to block the EU recovery plan, which must be approved by the entire EU27.

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    Yesterday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out the possibility of a deal being stuck during the hastily scheduled summit. With this in mind, she urged her colleagues again on Friday to try and come up with a deal before the summer break, acknowledging that the starting position isn’t an easy one.

    “The pandemic shows us how vulnerable Europe is,” she told MPs…”Therefore I want to stress to you that cohesion and solidarity in Europe were never as important as they are today,” according to comments  shared with the press Friday morning.

    Another anonymous EU official told another reporter that if a planned July summit can’t be held in person, an agreement likely wouldn’t arrive until the fall, when the worst hit countries like Spain and Italy may already be in the throes of a serious financial crisis as blown out budget deficits bump up against EU budgetary rules.

    On Friday, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Michel Barnier, the chief Brexit negotiator, and the president of Croatia, Andrej Plenković, held a joint press briefing to discuss the outcome of the snap summit.

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    During the briefing, journalists from mostly European media outlets peppered the unelected bureaucrats with questions about the nature of the impasse, what, if anything, had been accomplished during the brief summit, and why the Commission believes a deal before the summer break is still possible.

    For those who aren’t familiar with Brussels, the city essentially shuts down for a month beginning Aug. 1.

    While Angela Merkel joined with French President Emmanuel Macron to back the compromise plan at the outset of the meeting, a group of northern European nations that once mostly relied on Germany to champion their interests in Brussels has turned against Berlin, and instead it has dug in its heels and refused to support any kind of compromise.

    On Friday, Dutch PM Mark Rutte, known as the leader of the so-called “frugal four”, told reporters that the chances of a deal by the end of July actually aren’t all that high.

    • RUTTE NOT SURE EU WILL REACH DEAL ON #RECOVERY FUND IN JULY – BBG
    • RUTTE SAYS NOTHING WILL GO TERRIBLY WRONG IF NO DEAL IN JULY
    • RUTTE SAYS ONLY SOLUTION TO EU BUDGET ISSUES IS REBATES

    In the FT on Tuesday, Rutte and the leaders of Austria, Denmark and Sweden called for a “realistic level of spending”, and demanded that all of the money doled out in the recovery program eventually be paid back – the so-called “rebates” (thinly disguised sovereign debt). Brussels, meanwhile, insists that at least some of the aid take the form of grants, since the European economy is potentially facing its most terrifying recession in modern times. But on Friday, the frugal four picked up enough support in the Baltic states and eastern member states in criticizing the recovery fund compromise to block a deal from being reached during the summit.

    Those tempted to label Rutte and his partners as heartless and ungrateful should keep in mind that Rutte is at the helm of his third government after a decade in power, and although he’s still tremendously popular – he’s widely considered the greatest Dutch leader of the postwar era – at home, euroskeptic forces in the Dutch Parliament recently cost his ruling four-party coalition the outright majority in the Dutch Parliament. The PM must now be extremely careful not to appear to be handing over Dutch taxpayer’s money to the profligate Southern Europeans.

    As the urgency intensifies and the negotiations descend into acrimony, ECB chief Christine Lagarde has been pleading desperately with EU states to just strike a deal and get it over with, while each new batch of economic projections grows increasingly dire.

    Meanwhile, the Trump White House has lashed out at the EU over its “digital tax” plans and other tax measures that would supposedly help finance the plan, which would effectively force American tech giants, which are being hit by antitrust lawsuits in the EU left and right, to help finance the EU coronavirus bailout. Two days ago, the Trump administration abruptly suspended fraught international tax negotiations with EU countries and warned that the bloc should expect retaliation if it moves ahead with plans to impose the new tax, which it is currently still planning to do. The Commission also wants to introduce new EU taxes, including a level on single-use plastics, a digital tax or a tax on multinationals, to help foot the bill. This will likely only further complicate the situation once Washington really starts throwing around its political heft.

    If no agreement is reached, pretty soon, that Continental “worry list” might be growing even longer as millions of Europeans wonder what the point of it all even is?

  • Liberal Media Has 'Completely Ignored' Biden Cognitive Decline: Rogan
    Liberal Media Has ‘Completely Ignored’ Biden Cognitive Decline: Rogan

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 17:40

    Bernie Sanders fan Joe Rogan – who admitted in April that he’d rather vote for President Trump Trump over former Vice President Joe Biden – says the left-wing media is ignoring Biden’s cognitive decline.

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    In a conversation highlighted by Breitbart‘s Josh Caplan, Rogan tells evolutionary biologist Bret Weinstein:

    JOE ROGAN: I’m seeing this one thing that I keep hearing over and over again from people of the left that really disturbs me is this concession that what you’re voting for is the Cabinet, you’re voting for the Supreme Court, you’re voting for someone who’s not going to reverse Roe vs. Wade. That’s what I keep hearing from my friends on the left. They’ve basically made this concession in their head like, “Hey, you know, this is what I’m voting for now.” And the news media on the left has completely ignored all of these Biden speeches that clearly show some kind of cognitive decline.

    Like David Pakman, who I respect a lot, he was kind of arguing against it, that it didn’t show his decline. I was trying to look at it in a way that made sense, I was trying to be rational about it, like maybe, “Okay, maybe he’s just exhausted, maybe this, and maybe it’s pressure.” Sometimes people get really tongue-tied and panic under pressure, and words come out all fucked up. That is possible. But there’s a trend. If you go back to when he was a younger man that trend didn’t exist. You’re seeing a change. The idea that as you get older you become less comfortable with the media, less comfortable with speaking publically, that doesn’t jive with me. That doesn’t make any sense.

    BRET WEINSTEIN: I agree with you. I see a decline. But irrespective of what that is, Joe Biden is an influence peddler. He’s not an idea guy, right? He’s the same idea as Hillary Clinton in a different morphology.

    In April, Rogan told Weinstein’s brother and Thiel Capital MP Eric Weinstein that Democrats are “making us all look dumb over Biden,” adding that he “could not” vote for the former Vice PResident.

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    As The Epoch Times’ Katabella Roberts noted, Rogan, who previously endorsed Biden’s primary rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), went on to speak about Trump’s ability to handle the pressure that comes with being president of the United States, noting that the role appeared to take a visible toll on previous Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

    “The pressure of being the president of the United States is something that no one has ever prepared for. The only one who seems to be fine with it is Trump, oddly enough. He doesn’t seem to be aging at all, or in any sort of decline. Obama, almost immediately, started looking older. George W, almost immediately, started looking older,” Rogan added.

    Speaking of Biden, Rogan also noted that the former vice president can “barely talk,” and “forgets what he is saying halfway in the conversation.”

    Meanwhile, Biden’s latest senior moment:

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  • BofA: There Is Just One Bull Market To Short … And The Fed Won’t Let You
    BofA: There Is Just One Bull Market To Short … And The Fed Won’t Let You

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 17:18

    Is it time to go short?

    With the Fed’s balance sheet posting its biggest weekly drop in 11 years, and hitting a plateau of sorts (at least until the next major QE push)…

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    … coupled with an ominous reversal on today’s quad-witch expiration, which saw stocks slump despite opening sharply higher, investors are starting to ask if it is once again time to start shorting (especially with Robin Hood realizing it is time to pull in the reins on its teenage trading army).

    Well, at least according to Bank of America’s CIO Michael Hartnett the answer is, for now at least, no.

    Writing in his latest Flows and Liquidity report titled “Only bull to short is credit…and Fed won’t let you”, Hartnett proposes that according to the Fed, it is still too early for Big Short: “Fed is “all-in” and will remain in that stance until US unemployment rate falls to acceptable level i.e. <5% (or claims <400k)."

    Hartnett also warns that Fed rhetoric has been bigger than wallet thus far, which means Powell can easily crush shorts. Here’s why – the Fed’s facilities are operating at just a fraction of potential, and as Table 1 below shows, the Fed has spent just $173bn out of its potential $495bn in firepower (and it can always add more).

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    It’s not just the Fed: there is also the 2020 fiscal bazooka which has a way to go.

    As Hartnett adds, the fiscal stimulus is taking 3 forms in 2020… spending, credit guarantees, loans & equity. BIS data shows US & Australia lead spending (>10% GDP), Europe is using aggressive credit guarantees (e.g. Italy 32% GDP), while Japan/Korea are stimulating via government loans/equity injections.

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    And while Hartnett echoes what we said last month, that it is “notable how Emerging Markets lagging in terms of fiscal ability to address pandemic/recession”, recall that last night we reported that China has now vowed to inject global credit amounting to 30% of GDP in the economy this year.

    So does that mean don’t short under any conditions? Not exactly. As Hartnett summarizes, the tactical risk remains to the upside: 

    positioning, policy, credit markets all still point to potential for or above 30Y TSY above 2%, IG CDX 60, SPX 3250, while credit markets are still too strong (see LQD, PFF, CWB)…

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    … to short stocks, even if like stocks, junk has only retraced partially versus quality bonds (see relative performance of CCC HY bonds vs 30-year Treasury – Chart 9); summer risk remains to upside driven by central bank repression of credit spreads (positive for “growth”…see world’s best performing market, Chinese Nasdaq (ChiNext), threatening to breakout to new highs – Chart 10), or via big RoW macro surprise to upside via fiscal stimulus (see soaring Baltic Freight Index); barbell of credit/tech and EU/US small cap value & banks.

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    But the structural risk is to the downside: Fall 2020 risks will be 1. Fear of double-dip recession & default risk, 2. Debasement of US dollar & disorderly bond markets, 3. Politics threatening 2021 EPS;

    His parting advice for a tipping point back into shorts: watch the yield curve: a failure of the curve to steepen >80bps in June/July would signal “peak policy stimulus” and reinvigorate shorts.

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Today’s News 19th June 2020

  • EU Car Sales Crash 57% In May As Europe Grapples With Massive Inventory Glut
    EU Car Sales Crash 57% In May As Europe Grapples With Massive Inventory Glut

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 02:45

    New car sales in the EU plunged in May, falling 57% to 623,812, as Europe grapples with the same problem that the U.S. has had for weeks: a glut of inventory, despite re-opening some factories and re-starting production in certain areas.

    All 27 EU member states posted double digit declines in new car sales, with the U.K. falling an astounding 89%, according to MarketWatch

    Production coming out of the EU remains “well blow” pre-crisis levels but the lack of demand continues to contribute to a growing inventory problem. This, in turn, has created a slowdown in an industry that’s already moving at a crawl to begin with. Jobs and profits are both threatened from the glut, in addition to the monumental threat they both still continue to face from the ongoing global pandemic.

    Unsold cars on dealer lots are “at least 30% above normal” according to industry analysts, while unsold inventory in Germany alone was about $17 billion worth. 

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    Antje Woltermann, managing director of the ZDK industry group: “Unsold stocks are climbing, and on the other hand vehicles are not leaving the lots.”

    While Europe is struggling, many have looked to China, where sales were up 6% in May, for signs of optimism. For example, Stephan Wöllenstein, chief executive of Volkswagen Group China said: “The return of these kinds of figures is encouraging and gives us continued cautious optimism going forward.” 

    But those numbers don’t account for the recent second wave of lockdowns, including in Beijing, that China now faces. 

    Countries like France and Germany continues to try and spur sales with government incentives, but Germany is focusing primarily on EVs while the glut is in traditional ICE cars.

    Recall, in May, we were ahead of the curve when we noted that European car registrations had plunged 76% in April. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, the number of new cars sold fell from 1,143,046 to just 270,682 YOY in that month. 

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    The ACEA said at the time: “The first full month with COVID-19 restrictions in place resulted in the strongest monthly drop in car demand since records began.” 

    It looks as though that trend has continued through May. 

    April’s numbers were worst than March, though May’s registration numbers seem to show that there could be some respite for sales when those numbers are released.

  • Publishing Staff Threaten To Quit Unless JK Rowling's New Book Is Canceled
    Publishing Staff Threaten To Quit Unless JK Rowling’s New Book Is Canceled

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    Staff at Publishing house Hachette have threatened to quit unless the company cancels its association with JK Rowling and scraps plans to publish her new book because they argue the author is ‘transphobic’.

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    The Daily Mail reported that “Staff in the children’s department at Hachette announced they were no longer prepared to work on the book” over Rowling’s recent assertions that biological sex is real and that there are only two genders.

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    The Mail further reported that the publishing staffers “said they were opposed to her comments and wanted to show support for the trans lobby.”

    “These staff are all very ‘woke’, mainly in their twenties and early thirties, and apparently it is an issue they feel very strongly about.” the report adds.

    According to an ‘insider’ “It was a handful of staff, and they are entitled to their views. If they were being asked to edit a book on domestic abuse, and they were a survivor of domestic abuse, of course they would never be forced to work on it. But this is a children’s fairy tale. It is not the end of the world. They will all be having chats with their managers.”

    Hachette is backing Rowling, having issued a statement saying “We are proud to publish JK Rowling’s children’s fairy tale The Ickabog. Freedom of speech is the cornerstone of publishing.”

    “We fundamentally believe that everyone has the right to express their own thoughts and beliefs. That’s why we never comment on our authors’ personal views and we respect our employees’ right to hold a different view.” the company added.

    “We will never make our employees work on a book whose content they find upsetting for personal reasons, but we draw a distinction between that and refusing to work on a book because they disagree with an author’s views outside their writing, which runs contrary to our belief in free speech.” the statement also noted.

  • China Conducts Military 'Show Of Force' Drills With Tanks Near Indian Border
    China Conducts Military ‘Show Of Force’ Drills With Tanks Near Indian Border

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 06/19/2020 – 01:00

    Both China and India have signaled they are seeking to deescalate soaring tensions along the disputed and loosely demarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC) which separates Indian-controlled territory from Chinese-controlled territory along Ladakh and the Chinese Tibet Autonomous Region.

    This after on Monday night the deadliest border clash in a half-century erupted, after which the Indian Army confirmed 20 of its troops killed after being critically wounded followed by being “exposed to sub-zero temperatures in the high altitude terrain.” Though the Chinese side has yet to give details of PLA casualties, Indian media has widely reported that over 40 “enemy” soldiers were killed.

    Though political leaders on both sides have said they don’t want to stoke tensions possibly leading to outbreak of war, Chinese state media CCTV announced military drills designed as a ‘show of force’. RT Arabic subsequently republished video of the undated exercises near the Line of Actual Control.

    RT reported of the footage: “the Chinese State Radio and Television Corporation (CCTV) has announced a major military exercise near the area of ​​the armed border clash with India.”

    Chinese state media said the drills involved over 150 PLA troops; however, it’s very possible the footage depicts exercises prior to this week’s deadly border clash, and that it’s being circulated as a new “warning” to New Delhi.

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    In new reporting Thursday, state-funded Global Times also confirmed the drills involve PLA special forces, tanks, and heavy artillery:

    The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been conducting intensive military exercises of multiple dimensions, including high altitude tank and anti-tank drills in Southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region, large-scale, long-distance maneuver of an army brigade to Northwest China, and nighttime group parachute infiltration, following the fatal clash between China and India in the border region.

    These PLA drills not only showed that its forces stationed in border regions have high combat capability, but that troops from across China will also come to their aid, and the PLA can crush any aggression with land-air integrated joint operations, Chinese military experts said on Thursday.

    But both sides are likely mobilizing additional forces even as emergency phone calls are exchanged between foreign ministers to try and walk back escalation.

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    In summary, here’s where things stand, per Al Jazeera:

    • The foreign ministers of China and India have held telephone talks over the deadly border clash, agreeing to “cool down” the tensions.

    • In a TV address to the nation, India’s PM Narendra Modi says the sacrifice of soldiers killed in Ladakh by China’s army “will not go in vain”.

    • India says the “violent face-off” is an attempt by China to “unilaterally change the status quo” on the Galwan Valley frontier in Indian-administered Ladakh.

    • Beijing, in turn, accuses the Indian army of “provoking and attacking Chinese personnel, resulting in serious physical confrontation”.

    While there’s been reports of a rapid cooling of the situation, stationing tanks near the border doesn’t suggest a lasting deescalation is on the horizon. 

  • Epstein Case: Documentaries Won't Touch Tales Of Intel Ties
    Epstein Case: Documentaries Won’t Touch Tales Of Intel Ties

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 23:50

    Authored by Elizabeth Vos via ConsortiumNews.com,

    Investigation Discovery premiered  a three-hour special, “Who Killed Jeffrey Epstein?” on May 31, the first segment in a three-part series, that  focused on Epstein’s August 2019 death in federal custody. The series addresses Epstein’s alleged co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell, his links with billionaire Leslie Wexner, founder of the Victoria Secrets clothing line, and others, as well as the non-prosecution deal he was given.

    The special followed on the heels of Netflix’s release of “Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich,” a mini-series that draws on a book of the same name by James Patterson. 

    Promotional material for “Who Killed Jeffery Epstein?” promises that:  “… exclusive interviews and in-depth investigations reveal new clues about his seedy underworld, privileged life and controversial death. The three-hour special looks to answer the questions surrounding the death of this enigmatic figure.”  Netflix billed its series this way: “Stories from survivors fuel this docuseries examining how convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein used his wealth and power to carry out his abuses.”

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    Neither documentary however deals at all with Epstein’s suspected ties to the world of intelligence.

    Absent from both are Maxwell’s reported links to Israeli intelligence through her father, Robert Maxwell, former owner of The New York Daily News and The Mirror newspaper in London. Maxwell essentially received a state funeral in Israel and was buried on the Mount of Olives after he mysteriously fell off his yacht in 1991 in the Atlantic Ocean.

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    Ari Ben-Menashe. (From his memoir, “Profits of War”)

    In an interview with Consortium News, former Israeli intelligence officer Ari Ben-Menashe said Epstein did not work with Mossad. “Military intelligence was who he was working with,” said Ben-Menashe. “Big difference,” he said. “He never worked with Mossad, and Robert Maxwell never did, either. It was military intelligence.”

    Ben-Menashe claimed Robert Maxwell was Epstein’s “tie over. Robert Maxwell was the conduit [in the Iran-Contra scandal]. The financial conduit.”

    In “Epstein: Dead Men Tell No Tales,” a book published in December, Ben-Menashe is quoted as saying he worked with Robert Maxwell who introduced his daughter and Epstein to Israeli intelligence, after which they engaged in a blackmail operation for Israel. “[Epstein] was taking photos of politicians f**king fourteen-year-old girls — if you want to get it straight. They [Epstein and Maxwell] would just blackmail people, they would just blackmail people like that,” he says in the book.   

    Ben-Menashe also claims that Robert Maxwell had attempted to blackmail Mossad. “He really lost his compass once he started playing these games with people,” he told Consortium News.     

    Prince Andrew

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    Prince Andrew in a carriage procession, June 2012. (Carfax2, CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)

    About a week after both documentaries premiered, the U.S. Department of Justice approached the U.K.’s Home Office requesting that Prince Andrew answer questions in the U.K. over his links to Epstein, The Mirror reported.  If he refuses, the paper said, U.S. prosecutors would ask that he be brought to a British court to respond to their questions. Andrew’s lawyers say he three times agreed to be questioned by U.S. authorities, but it is not known if Andrew attached conditions, such as immunity. 

    Both documentaries mention Prince Andrew in the context of allegations about him from one of Epstein’s victims, Virginia Roberts Giuffre. But neither film goes into much detail about Andrew’s role in the Epstein operation, which Ben-Menashe said, was to lure powerful men into Epstein’s orbit.

    “One of the things that are really key to this is that he [Epstein] befriended a very useful idiot called Prince Andrew,” Ben-Menashe told CN. “Now what really happened was that this Prince Andrew, with nothing to do, was having fun with this, and Prince Andrew brings in the fancy people, invites them to play golf with him, and then takes them out for fun. Then Epstein shows up, and these people are basically blackmailed.”

    “The only person that can talk, that probably knows quite a bit, is the great prince,” Ben-Menashe said. “He was with him [Epstein] all the time. I really don’t know what his future is going to be like, either.”

    Since a number of influential figures were named in a lawsuit filed by Giuffre against Ghislaine Maxwell the day before Epstein was found dead in his federal prison cell in New York, Ben-Menashe said: “I’m starting to think that lawsuit was his death sentence, because people didn’t want to be named. That’s my guess, it’s just a guess. Obviously, somebody decided that he had to go.”

    Epstein’s death was ruled a “suicide” by New York’s chief medical examiner. A pathologist hired by Epstein’s brother said it was homicide.

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    An Angry Call

    Just before Ben-Menashe spoke to Consortium News on Monday, he said he had received an angry telephone call from Israel’s Channel 13 television station.

    “They called me, and they went wild: ‘What, you believe Israel would use little girls? You are saying that? You are insulting the nation, you are making us anathema around the world.’ I said, ‘The truth is the truth.’ And Jeffrey Epstein’s story is something that nobody wanted to hear. He was working with the Israelis, he was working with Maxwell,” Ben-Menashe said.

    He added: “It’s a very bad story, and I can see why the Israelis are so concerned about it.  I believe [Channel 13] were expressing anger, and I believe this was a message. I don’t like messages like that… it has to do with the timing and these stories coming out about Epstein. They [Israel] are starting to become anathema to the world, this adds to it — the Epstein story.”

    Victims’ Voices

    The Netflix and Investigation Discovery productions allow survivors to recount their experiences in interviews as well as taped police recordings and focus on the sweetheart plea deal provided to Epstein by former Trump Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta during Acosta’s tenure as U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Florida.

    Each series outlines Epstein’s relationships with Wexner, Maxwell, and a variety of elite figures.  Investigation Discovery focuses on the controversy surrounding Epstein’s death while Netflix’s “Filthy Rich” examines the second attempt to prosecute Epstein in the context of the Me Too movement.

    The Netflix series describes the initial investigation of Epstein as it shifted from the state to the federal level, and airs allegations that Florida  journalists  covering the story were threatened. Netflix also interviews psychologist Dr. Kathryn Stamoulis, a specialist in adolescent sexuality, who gives a description of Epstein’s targeting and grooming of young girls. Epstein survivor Giuffre later describes in the film being groomed to tolerate exploitation and sex trafficking as part of a “deranged family.”

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    The final section of the fourth episode in Netflix’s miniseries includes a survivor stating that this was not simply an Epstein operation, but an “international sex trafficking ring that reached all over the world.” Epstein is described as a “very small piece in a huge network.” But the documentary goes no further than that. 

    As in the Belgian Dutroux case, victims alleged that multiple abusers acted in concert with each other, using blackmail to keep each other in line. In both instances, authorities and the media portrayed the abuse as chiefly the product of an aberrant lone predator.

    “This wouldn’t be the only time this happened, but this guy got way over his head,” Ben-Menashe told Consortium News. “He probably was blackmailing too many people, too many powerful people. And then, this is a story the Israelis wouldn’t want to come out, anyway.”

    Thriving in Murky Waters

    Another angle the documentaries did not approach was the environment in which Epstein thrived like an algae bloom in stagnant water, that is, within a long history of child trafficking rings linked with intelligence agencies, often with the aim of gathering blackmail material. It was within this reality that Epstein appeared to be rendered untouchable.

    Omitting the intelligence aspect of Epstein’s history allows the Establishment media to portray his case as a mysterious and unsolvable aberration, rather than perhaps a continuation of business-as-usual amongst those in power.

    The glaring refusal to address Epstein’s intelligence involvement becomes  clear when Investigation Discovery and Netflix’s programs discuss the role of Acosta in securing Epstein’s “sweetheart” plea deal, but do not reference Acosta’s widely reported explanation as to why Acosta agreed to the deal.  As reported by The Daily Beast, Acosta claimed that he cut the non-prosecution deal because he had been told that “Epstein ‘belonged to intelligence’ and to leave it alone.”

    Independent journalist Whitney Webb has reported on Epstein’s many ties with intelligence, telling  CNLive! in August last year that there is evidence this included with the CIA. 

    Webb spoke about  Iran-Contra links to Epstein via his and billionaire Wexner’s efforts to relocate Southern Air Transport (formerly the CIA’s Air America) from Florida to Ohio: “What’s significant here is that out of all the airlines in the United States, Wexner and Epstein choose the airline, the only airline that is outed, publicly known at the time, to be a CIA cut-out. Out of all the airlines that exist, that’s the one they go for,” she said.

    Webb also cited reporting by Nigel Rosser, a British journalist, who wrote in the Evening Standard in 2001 that Epstein claimed he worked for the CIA in the 1990s.

    Lip Service

    Investigation Discovery and Netflix give lip service to Wexner’s ties with Epstein, omitting that Wexner gave Epstein the largest private residence in New York City — essentially for free. Investigation Discovery does not mention that the residence was extensively wired with surveillance equipment, per Webb and The New York Times.

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    “James Patterson, before writing his book on Epstein, ‘Filthy Rich,’ on which this documentary [by Netflix] is based, wrote a novel [‘The President is Missing’] with Bill Clinton , who is of course quite close to the Epstein scandal, so that definitely, in my opinion, raises some eyebrows,” Webb told Consortium News.

    “I think that one of the goals of this [Netflix] documentary is to basically imply that Epstein was the head of the operation and that now that he is dead, all of that activity has ceased,” Webb said. “If they had actually bothered to explore the intelligence angle, in some of the more obvious facts about the case, like Leslie Wexner’s role, for example, it becomes clear that Epstein was really just more of a manager of this type of operation, [and] that these activities continue.”

    Webb said a main reason for avoiding discussion of the intelligence angle is that mention of state sponsorship would lead to calls for accountability and open inquiry into a history of sexual blackmail by intelligence agencies. “So if they had given even superficial treatment of those ties, it would have exposed threads that if anyone had bothered to pull on a little bit, would start to unravel a lot of things that obviously these powerful people and institutions don’t want exposed,” Webb said.

    More than nine months since Epstein’s death, no alleged Epstein co-conspirator has been arrested or charged with a crime despite reports of an active criminal investigation of Maxwell (who has disappeared), and multiple failed attempts of alleged Epstein victims to serve her with civil suits.

    “The criminal case against him, and all the evidence that was gathered against him as part of that, will never be made public unless someone else is charged,” said Webb. “So, the fact that they’re not charging anyone else is quite telling, and the fact that the mainstream media isn’t pushing back against that, I think is telling as well.”

    The omissions of major aspects of the Epstein case by the media, specifically its links with the intelligence community, seems to be yet another example of a buffer between justice and those responsible for rendering Epstein untouchable.

  • Iran Defiantly Touts Domestic 'New Generation Cruise Missiles' In Naval Drills Near Gulf
    Iran Defiantly Touts Domestic ‘New Generation Cruise Missiles’ In Naval Drills Near Gulf

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 23:25

    Amid crushing US sanctions aimed at strangling its defense, aviation and nuclear development sectors, Iran is increasingly focused on ramping up high tech domestic missile defense production.

    Ultimately it hopes to showcase its domestic military wares to signal the West that sanctions aren’t working. In its latest test Iran’s Navy displayed the abilities of newly developed land-to-sea and sea-to-sea cruise missiles.

    The drills were conducted in the Sea of Oman and Indian Ocean this week, and involved live-fire tests against targets nearly 300km away, which Iranian media said were successful. 

    Iranian state media hailed what it called “new-generation cruise missiles” which officials confirmed were “designed and developed by experts at home.”

    “The coast-to-sea and sea-to-sea missiles were produced by experts at Iran’s Ministry of Defense in cooperation with the Navy,” PressTV described further.

    Iran published photos and videos showing that a “dummy” ship had been successfully destroyed at ranges of up to 280km away.

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    Normally such tests amid still simmering US-Iran tensions in the Persian Gulf would be met with swift headline-grabbing condemnation out of the White House and State Department.

    However, multiple domestic crises facing the Trump administration – not to mention other global hot zones like the India-China border clashes or the Korean peninsula situation – have made Iran’s new tests barely a blip of the geopolitical radar.

    It’s also likely Washington is less worried about Iran’s domestic missile response capabilities after recent disasters.

    First there was the January accidental and tragic shoot down of the Ukrainian passenger jet, resulting in all 176 civilians on board killed. 

    And more recently more than two dozen Iranian sailors were killed and injured in disastrous naval drills gone wrong when an Iranian ship mistakenly released a cruise missile on a ‘friendly’ ship also taking part in the drills. 

  • What Spike? Hospitalization Data Show No Indication Of A Second Wave
    What Spike? Hospitalization Data Show No Indication Of A Second Wave

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 23:00

    Authored by Stephen Miller via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    Are we on the verge of a second wave of coronavirus infections? Is there a spike in infections in states that reopened first?

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    The only way to answer that question is to watch as the data roll in. Arguably the best data to look at to see if a second wave is beginning are the hospitalization numbers. The media frequently reports the biggest and most dramatic numbers, often devoid of context. The number of cases has been reported regularly since the early days of the pandemic, and yet we know that the number of cases can be misleading.

    As more people are tested and re-tested for the virus, more results will come back positive, with the current number of confirmed cases exceeding 2 million in the U.S. But if we know anything, it is that increases in the number of confirmed cases do not accurately convey how quickly and widely the virus is spreading. Antibody tests and even the examination of sewage in some cities suggest that the number of infections is likely much higher than the number of confirmed cases. 

    But on the other side, some of the confirmed cases are double-counted in some states partly because both antibody and active virus tests are being counted separately but then combined in the total number of cases. While the antibody tests have been criticized for their false positive rate, another criticism has been that the antibody studies can underreport infection rates because they are not sensitive enough to detect a past mild infection.

    Overall, because the bulk of testing is focused on people who are the sickest and who face the greatest exposure, it seems reasonable to conclude that the true number of U.S. infections is substantially higher than the reported figure. But an attempt to estimate the true number of infections would be little better than a guess.

    And this presents a problem with the daily updates. To say that a particular state or city is seeing a “spike” in cases is to say that recently they have had an uptick in positive test results. That could be due to more testing and more ways of testing, or it could be a hint of growth in the infection rate.

    Better Data are Available

    Rather than focus on test results, i.e. “cases,” it would make more sense to focus on how the virus affects society and our institutions, particularly the strain the virus puts on health care facilities and health care providers. An obvious measure, tracked since the beginning of the pandemic, is the number of deaths. As I and others at AIER have noted, the number of deaths is hard to interpret without important context. 

    The coronavirus is obviously deadly, but how deadly it is seems to depend greatly on how it enters a population and the characteristics of that population. The virus has been far deadlier in New York than it has been in California, and has been most deadly in U.S. long-term care facilities. Among children, the coronavirus is considerably less deadly than seasonal influenza.

    Nonetheless, deaths tell us something important about the virus’s impact on society. They profoundly affect entire social networks and are rightly emphasized in pandemic reporting. 

    When it comes to seeing how things are going now, whether the pandemic is growing worse or fading, deaths are a lagging indicator. They do not begin to spike until infections have already been accelerating rapidly for many days, and they do not decline until well after the virus’s spread has slowed. 

    The chart below shows that overall, deaths are clearly declining, although there is a weekly cycle where Sundays seem to result in relatively low death counts and Tuesdays and Wednesdays usually have the highest reported numbers. Overall, the past two weeks have had lower death totals than have been seen in the two months prior. But if a second wave were coming soon, we would not see the deaths from it yet.

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    Here is another look from the Washington Post. 

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    In addition to deaths, more attention has shifted to measuring coronavirus-related hospitalizations. Frustratingly, these data tend not to go back as far as numbers on confirmed cases or deaths, but in most states there are hospitalization figures going back over two months. The hospital data are measured two ways, the first being a cumulative measure, similar to the way confirmed cases and deaths are measured. 

    The number can only go up as more hospitalizations are added to the total. From that number, the daily number of hospitalizations can be plotted; however that number is very noisy because the numbers are submitted at the state level in a variety of ways and do not seem to reflect the true numbers per day.

    In other words, the hospitalization numbers seem to come in in clumps. They can be reported as weekly totals or weekly averages, as well. But a weakness of the cumulative data is that they do not tell us much about the burden on hospitals and health care workers. The total number of coronavirus hospitalizations increased dramatically, from zero to nearly 60,000 in a month nationally, and stayed high for weeks afterward. The chart below shows that the decrease in hospitalization has been fairly steady, and overall there is far less strain on the health care system than there was in mid-April.

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    The northeastern U.S. was hit hardest, but most states are either seeing declining or flat trends in hospitalizations, with a few notable exceptions such as North Carolina, Texas, and Arizona. But in those states the number of hospitalizations is still relatively low, a fraction of the totals that New York and New Jersey were seeing in April. Claims that Alabama, Georgia, and Florida are emerging “hotspots” are not supported by the hospitalization numbers despite media reports to the contrary.

    There are some parts of the country still in the midst of the first wave of coronavirus infections, states that had very low numbers of hospitalizations and deaths in April, but are now beginning to see the virus spread more quickly. But those states are unlikely to see the kind of spread Northeastern states did, and there is hope the virus can be far less deadly going forward if policies can be implemented to better-protect the elderly and vulnerable, especially those living in long-term care facilities.

  • Beijing Sounds Alarm About Dollar's Reserve Status
    Beijing Sounds Alarm About Dollar’s Reserve Status

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 22:35

    As excerpted from Bloomberg macro commentator Ye Xie

    Beijing Sounds Alarm About Demise of Mighty Dollar

    With all the money printing and borrowing, is this the beginning of a long decline for the dollar?

    Clearly this is on the minds of some senior Chinese officials. Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, delivered a strong warning on the U.S. currency this week.

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    Guo Shuqing

    He made four points in a speech at the Lujiazhui Forum in Shanghai:

    • A. The Fed is the de facto central bank of the world. When its policy targets its own economy without considering the spillover effect, the Fed is “very likely to overdraft the credit of the dollar and the U.S.”
    • B. The pandemic may persist for a long period of time, and countries keep throwing money at the problem with a diminished impact. “It is recommended that you think twice and reserve some policy space for the future.”
    • C. There is no free lunch. Watch out for inflation.
    • D. Financial markets are disconnected from the real economy, and such distortions are “unprecedented.” It’s going to be “really painful,” when the policy withdrawal starts.

    “Some people say: ‘Domestic debt is not debt, but external debt is debt. For the United States, even external debt is not debt. This seems to have been the case for quite some time in the past, but can it really last for a long time in the future?”

    What will China do?

    “China cherishes the conventional monetary and fiscal policies very much. We will not engage in flooding the system, nor will we engage in deficit monetization and negative interest rates.”

    It’s not the first time China vented frustration against the “exorbitant privilege” of the dollar. After the financial crisis, then-PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan proposed using the SDR to replace the dollar as the main reserve currency.

    It went nowhere. But this time, China seems to be determined to enhance its reserve-currency status by avoiding unconventional policies. It won’t dislodge the dollar tomorrow, but its attractiveness is clear in the foreign flows to its bond market.

  • More Details Are Emerging About The India-China Border Clash
    More Details Are Emerging About The India-China Border Clash

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 22:10

    Authored by Christophe Barraud

    More details are emerging about the violent clash on Monday night along a disputed border between India and China high in the Himalayas, which has led to renewed tensions between the two countries. The incident came despite India and China have started to pull back their forces along the border after talks between senior military officials, according to India’s Army Chief Manoj Mukund Naravane on June 13.

    According to Bloomberg, “in near sub-zero temperatures in the thin air of 15,000 feet, Chinese and Indian soldiers attacked each other with stones, iron rods and bamboo poles wrapped in barbed wire laced with nails. It is not clear what started the clashes, but by the time they were finished 20 Indian soldiers were dead, along with an unknown number of Chinese casualties.” CNN also confirmed that “they fought with fists, stones, and nail-studded bamboo poles.

    Indian media reported that the battle was fought after Indian troops tried to verify that Chinese soldiers had honoured a pledge to withdraw from a strategic position. The Economic Times noted that “according to one version, the CO (Commander Officer) had gone to the standoff point with a party of 50 men to check if the Chinese had retreated as promised. As the Indian side proceeded to demolish and burn illegal Chinese structures on its side of the LAC, including an observation post constructed on the South bank of the river, a fresh stand off took place as a large force of Chinese troops returned back.” The newspaper added “sources said that a Chinese force in excess of 250 quickly assembled near Patrol Point 14 and were physically stopped by Indian soldiers from entering Indian territory. Soldiers from both sides did not use firearms but the Chinese soldiers carried spiked sticks to attack.”

    The Hindu reported that “the Indian Army on Tuesday said 20 Army personnel, including a Colonel, were killed on Monday night in the biggest-ever military confrontation between the two armies in over five decades.” It noted that “China has not yet talked about the number of casualties suffered by the People’s Liberation Army during the clash.” But revealed that “sources in the government are claiming that as per U.S. intelligence reports, the Chinese Army suffered 35 casualties during the violent clash with the Indian military in eastern Ladakh’s Galwan Valley.” “the figure could be a combination of total number of soldiers killed and seriously wounded”, the article added.

    Meanwhile, India Today reported “Indian troops assaulted the Chinese post with brutal strength and seriously injured nearly 55-56 Chinese solider. Many casualties were inflicted at this point. Sources said there were many fatalities on the Chinese side but there was no confirmation on the exact number.”

    Separately, although ABC news confirmed that “India has reported 20 Indian soldiers, including a colonel, have died of severe injuries in the dispute on Monday night local time”, it reported that “Indian news outlet ANI cited unnamed sources saying at least 43 Chinese troops were dead or seriously injured.”

    All in all, the real number of Chinese casualties remain uncertain. When questioned about this topic, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said: “the border troops of the two sides are dealing with the specifics on the ground.” In addition, Hu Xijin, editor of the Global Times, said in a Twitter post the Chinese side had suffered casualties. In another tweet, he underlined that his understanding is “the Chinese side doesn’t want people of the two countries to compare the casualties number so to avoid stoking public mood.”

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    In this context, Xinhua reported that “Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi suggested on Wednesday that China and India strengthen communication and coordination on properly addressing the border situation and jointly maintain the peace and tranquility in the border areas.” However, he also blamed the Indians for the deadly border clash. The article highlighted that “in a telephone conversation with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, Wang said that Indian frontline border defense troops on Monday night blatantly broke the consensus reached at the commander-level talks between the militaries of the two sides.” “The hazardous move of the Indian army severely violated the agreement reached between the two countries on the border issue and the basic norms of international relations, he said, while voicing China’s strong opposition to the move of the Indian side.”

    On the other hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed India will defend its sovereignty in his first public statement. According to Bloomberg, “India wants peace,” Modi said in a televised address Wednesday. “But when provoked India will and is capable of giving an appropriate answer under any circumstances. And on the subject of our martyred, brave soldiers — the nation will be proud that they died while hitting back.”

    Lastly, on the economic front, Bloomberg suggested that the clash posed “an escalation risks disruption for firms from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp. to Tata Motors Ltd. that have customers — and investors — in two of the world’s biggest economies.”

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  • "I Was In The Room Too" – Pompeo Accuses "Traitor" Bolton Of Spreading "Outright Falsehoods"
    “I Was In The Room Too” – Pompeo Accuses “Traitor” Bolton Of Spreading “Outright Falsehoods”

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 21:46

    After maintaining a foreboding silence for roughly a day, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a top Trump Administration official who was of course present for many of the episodes described by former NSA John Bolton in the salaciously leaked details from his book, which the White House is struggling to suppress on grounds it contains classified information.

    In a statement entitled “I Was In The Room Too,” Pompeo slammed Bolton as a “traitor” who is spreading “fully-spun” lies. He also claimed Bolton “violated his sacred trust with [America’s] people”.

    “I’ve not read the book, but from the excerpts I’ve seen published, John Bolton is spreading a number of lies, fully-spun half-truths, and outright falsehoods. It is both sad and dangerous that John Bolton’s final public role is that of a traitor who damaged America by violating his sacred trust with its people. To our friends around the world: you know President Trump’s America is a force for good in the world.”

    President Trump’s twitter feed has been a non-stop stream of insults and quoted insults slamming the infamous neo-con and Bush-era relic whom President Trump brought in after pushing out HR McMaster, who stepped into the job during the first chaotic weeks of the Trump administration, as the White House was reeling from its first major scandal, the firing of Michael Flynn.

  • Baltimore City Police Confirm President Trump's Claim 68% Of All Homicides Unsolved In 2019
    Baltimore City Police Confirm President Trump’s Claim 68% Of All Homicides Unsolved In 2019

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 21:30

    President Trump signed an executive order Tuesday addressing the nation on police reforms amid widespread social unrest across many large metropolitan areas. As the president signed the order at the White House Rose Garden surrounded by law enforcement officers, he pointed out that a majority of homicides last year in Baltimore City went unsolved. 

    “In many cases, local law enforcement is underfunded understaffed, and under support,” the president said. “Forty-seven percent of all murders in Chicago and 68% of all murders in Baltimore went without arrests last year.”

    Current homicides trends in Baltimore City (data pulled from The Baltimore Sun) suggest 300 deaths could be seen for the fifth year in a row. With the city’s collapsing population, now around the 600k – on a per capita basis, the area is considered one of the most dangerous cities in the nation. 

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    h/t The Baltimore Sun 

    Homicides spiked across the metro area post-2015 riots. Since then, the city has never been the same, as residents continue to flee the downtown district in droves (similar to the “white flight” of the 1960s) – collapsing the total population to century lows as the inner city implodes. Let’s be frank, the implosion of the city is due to widespread wealth, health, and education inequalities of the African American community, some of the most severe in the nation. If not properly addressed, the city will dive further into chaos. 

    When it comes to law and order, there is none of it on the east and west parts of the city. Drug gangs govern entire neighborhoods, and police tend to keep their distance as lawlessness thrives. Respect for police and government officials is at a low among many residents – the local economy has crashed, unemployment is high – the opioid crisis continues to rage – signaling there has been very little progress made in lifting these folks out of poverty who’ve been stuck in a multi-decade depression. 

    In an attempt to reform the police and drive better relations with communities, the president’s order is shaped by three key components: “credentialing and certifying police departments, boosting information-sharing to better track officers with excessive use-of-force complaints and creating services for addressing mental health, drug addiction, and homelessness. But it doesn’t make federal funding conditional to those reforms, but instead potentially prioritizes some grants for departments that meet all those guidelines,” CBS News reported. 

    “Reducing crime and raising standards are not opposite goals,” the president said. 

    When it comes to the numbers, WJZ Baltimore said the Baltimore Police Department (BPD) confirmed the president’s statistic that 68% of all murders in the area went unsolved in 2019. 

    “Baltimore City police confirmed the president’s statistic Tuesday saying they had a 31% homicide clearance rate, or rate of closing cases, in 2019.

    “A spokesperson said since Commissioner Michael Harrison arrived in 2019, the department has re-assessed assets and invested into the homicide unit, including 14 new investigators.

    “Now, the department is focusing on staffing and reduction in caseloads for homicide.

    “Additionally, the department is investing into accountability tools being put into place and the unit is building on Consent Decree policies and training.

    “So far this year, the clearance rate is higher at 45%.” – WJZ Baltimore 

    “The Baltimore Police Department recognizes the need to improve our Homicide clearance rate and continues to make the necessary changes to be more effective and efficient. There have been several important improvements made, which include not only increasing staffing levels and developing training but implementing necessary accountability measures to improve investigations. Improving the clearance rate involves collaboration with the community and other local, state, and federal partners, which the Baltimore Police Department is committed to continuing doing and expanding on,” BPD told WJZ. 

    “Overall, BPD recognizes the need for continuous improvement and is up for the challenge of changing this narrative. Our department embraces reforms because the residents of our city deserve a world-class police force that inspires trust, ensures the safety and protects the constitutional rights of the people we serve. Rebuilding trust is critical to a safer Baltimore.” 

    At a time when BPD needs all the assistance – City Council has voted to defund the police department by about $22 million and redirect the funding to public services. 

    “This round of cuts that came with these hearings have demonstrated the will of the people,” Commissioner Michael Harrison said. “We are really kind of a basic functioning police department. There are impacts. Some of them could be negative.”

    Defunding BPD as the city implodes could lead to decreased patrols and out of control violent crime. With that being said, it’s probably best to avoid the area as lawlessness continues. 

  • Fake Science And Public Hysteria – The New Driving Force Of Politics
    Fake Science And Public Hysteria – The New Driving Force Of Politics

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 21:00

    Via InternationalMan.com,

    International Man: The Lancet recently retracted an anti-hydroxychloroquine study, which the media had used to attack Trump.

    Trump had admitted to taking hydroxychloroquine as a preventative measure against the coronavirus. The media then went into a frenzy. The talking heads often cited The Lancet study as proof hydroxychloroquine was dangerous.

    The bottom line is that bogus research made its way—likely deliberately—into one of the most prestigious peer-reviewed medical journals in the world. People then used this “science” as a political weapon.

    What is your take on this?

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    Doug Casey: I’d say the whole charade is tragic, except that “tragic” has become the most overused word in the language today. It bears a short discussion.

    Look at the recent death of a small-time career criminal, George Floyd. It’s as if “tragic” were part of his name. It’s as if people no longer understand the meaning of the word. A tragedy used to mean that a heroic protagonist succumbed to a cosmic force. There are no heroes in the degraded melodrama, just villains, where a costumed thug murdered a street thug under the color of law.

    Sorry to go off on a tangent. But it’s a timely instance of another word whose meaning has been twisted. It’s Orwellian, like so many other things in our devolving society.

    Let’s talk about something that’s actually tragic: the corruption of science over the last couple of generations.

    I’ve subscribed to Scientific AmericanDiscover, and New Scientist  for many years. During this time, I’ve noticed a distinct change in their respective editorial policies. They’ve all been politicized, captured by the PC left. These popular magazines are nowhere near the quality they once were. But this is just symptomatic of a bigger problem.

    You might recall the 2018 hoax where three academics, disgusted with widespread incompetence and dishonesty in research, submitted absurd “spoof” papers to twenty leading journals. They were written in gobbledygook, full of made-up facts and flawed reasoning. But most, as I recall, were peer-reviewed and published.

    If you research the subject a bit, you come to the conclusion half the peer-reviewed papers—absolutely in “soft” fields like psychology, sociology, political science, race and gender studies, etc.—are unreadable, dishonest, useless, and pointless.

    Why might this be? If an academic wants to advance in today’s university system, he has to publish research. It’s Pareto’s Law in action, the 80–20 rule. It’s pretty reliable, 80% of this sort of thing is crap because it’s written mainly to fabricate credentials, not advance knowledge.

    This is a bad thing.

    It’s causing the average guy, who may not know anything about science but still has some respect for it, to lose that respect. That’s because science has become politicized.

    You can see it with the conflicting information about COVID-19. Is it deadly or just another seasonal flu? Does it affect everyone, like the black death, or mainly the old and sick? Does almost everyone who contracts the virus get very sick or die or only a tiny percentage? Should you quarantine or live normally?

    So far, as near as I can tell, the great virus hysteria has gone from being the next black plague to basically a big nothing. It’s not nearly as bad as the Asian Flu from the 50s or the Hong Kong Flu from the 60s. Forget about the Spanish Flu—there’s no comparison whatsoever. The main effect of COVID isn’t medical; it’s the hysteria that’s destroyed the economy. And political actions are even more insane than those after 9/11.

    Politics thrives on hysteria. The politicization of everything is the real problem. And it’s not just about the total disruption of society and multitrillion-dollar deficits. For instance, I’ve played poker with a bunch of guys in Aspen every Monday night for years. Now, even though the lockdown in town is easing, the group is breaking up because most of them insist that everyone wear a mask. I won’t, nor will a couple of other guys. So, between that and a few guys who are now scared to socialize no matter what … game over. It may also mean the end of a larger Friday business lunch group I belong to that’s been around for decades.

    There are millions of similar small rips in the social fabric taking place everywhere now. And they’re largely justified by “the science.”

    The real problem is that the knock-on effects of the virus will last much, much longer than the trivial virus itself—which will soon burn out and be forgotten. The political, economic, and social changes, however, will linger for years, as will attitudes toward “science.”

    International Man: What are the implications of people corrupting the scientific process to launder their political propaganda to shape mainstream opinions?

    Doug Casey: You might think this is a new thing, but the left, in particular—who have always been advocates of social engineering— love using “science” to further their political agenda.

    The first important instance of this was Karl Marx and his notion of “scientific socialism”—a totally bogus idea.

    Since he first promoted it over 150 years ago, the concept has become ingrained in the culture, especially academia. People have been taught to believe there’s such a thing as “scientific socialism,” and that it’s not just inevitable, but desirable. In fact, it’s pseudoscience. But that’s just the first example of corruption of science in modern times.

    Keynesianism is another example. Keynesians believe that they can manipulate the economy as if it were a machine.

    A machine is a horrible analogy for the economy, however. It’s not a machine or a factory where you can pull levers to make magic happen—which is precisely what the Keynesians (who run the economic world today) think they can do.

    The economy is more like a rainforest, which is very complex. It can’t be manipulated from outside by apparatchiks enforcing rules. And if you do try to manipulate a rainforest from outside, you’re likely to destroy it.

    Keynesianism is a perfect example of scientism (that’s the use of the vocabulary and trappings of science for inappropriate subjects). You can see scientism used everywhere in the humanities and “soft” sciences. This is usually to legitimize some type of state intervention.

    Sociology and psychology are basically about social engineering. They’re not generally scientific so much as scientistic. They often try to put a scientific patina on forcing people to interact with each other in prescribed ways.

    But it goes way beyond just sociology and psychology. English departments are notorious for using leftist literary works to insinuate certain ideas in students. Economics departments use arcane math formulas to describe human action—pure scientism, with lots of ideological baggage. Marx himself was primarily a historian. Many college degrees today are completely bogus and worthless. An example? There are degrees in gender studies.

    The trend is way out of control. Ridiculous scientific concepts that started with Marx are everywhere.

    The same people—by that, I mean those with Marxist, socialist, and Keynesian outlooks—are behind the global warming frenzy, which is full of pseudoscience, fudged numbers, and bogus statistics.

    The latest manifestation of all this, of course, is the COVID hysteria.

    But behind it all is state funding of science—Big Science. It started in earnest after World War II.

    Government funding is authorized by politicians. They make decisions for political reasons. In order to qualify, you have to come up with results that are politically acceptable, which itself is the best reason for not having any government funding.

    But some might ask: Without the government, where would Big Science get the billions needed for giant projects?

    In fact, most of the capital that goes into scientific research from the state would still go into science; knowledge has value. But money would be allocated economically, not politically, thereby creating more wealth—much more than today, when much is wasted on politically caused boondoggles. Most government science spending is necessarily misallocated.

    The increasingly political nature of science funding has served to discredit the idea of science itself.

    International Man: The Democrats liken themselves as the so-called “Party of Science.” What do you think?

    Doug Casey: It’s nonsense, but it’s very clever marketing on their part.

    They get away with it because the Republicans are basically the party of business. And more importantly, the people who vote Republican tend to be traditionalist and religion-oriented.

    That’s a problem because scientific thinkers tend to see religion as irrelevant, dangerous, or even laughable—at best, as an inaccurate or bogus way to describe the world.

    Democrats, on the other hand, are notoriously secular and non-religious. Coincidentally, so are most scientists. That’s resulted in some unfortunate confusion. Democrats, illogically, seem to believe that just because they’re secular, they must be scientific.

    The fact is, however, that the Democrats are not the party of science.

    In fact, they’re the party of pseudoscience, bogus science, and scientism. Science doesn’t mix well with politics—or religion.

    But Democrats are clever marketers, linking themselves with science to differentiate themselves from Republicans, the party of tradition and religion.

    When you think about tradition and religion, it can bring to mind flat earth theories, geocentric astronomy, Torquemada, the persecution of Galileo, and witch trials. Democrats love to paint themselves as rational advanced thinkers and Republicans as superstitious atavists.

    Of course, religion and science have been at each other’s throats forever. Another reason I’ve always said the Dems are more the evil party and the Reps more the stupid party. But a pox on both their houses…

    International Man: Events like this seem to be a prime reason why a growing number of people are losing confidence in previously credible institutions and the self-anointed “experts.”

    What does this mean?

    Doug Casey: Tens of millions now have college degrees that they think mean something. In fact, they’re worth less than a high school diploma was before World War 2. People go on to get PhDs, which, it’s always been said, stands for “piled higher and deeper.”

    Especially since World War 2, government has gotten vastly bigger and involved in everything. Huge mistake…

    The government’s role is simple—to protect people from coercion: protection from domestic coercion, which implies the police force; protection from transnational coercion, which implies an army; and providing justice within the country, which implies a judicial system.

    The government shouldn’t do anything else.

    But since it’s now involved in absolutely everything, you need “experts” to decide what’s to be done.

    We see this today with people like Dr. Anthony Fauci, who’s nothing more than a lifelong bureaucrat. He’s lived in the swamp his entire life, and he’s a typical technocrat. He believes he knows what’s best for you.

    People like Fauci have assumed tremendous power over other people and the way society works. He’s a clever politician and has been effective at backslapping and backstabbing. And wheedling his way into a high bureaucratic position. The government is full of people like him.

    Another important thing about COVID is that they call it a “health crisis.”

    That’s untrue for several reasons. First, health is something that you take care of yourself. It’s personal, not public. As wonderful and as advanced as medicine has become, it’s of little use for maintaining your health.

    You maintain your health through proper diet, exercise, and good habits. Medicine is about repairing damage if you have a serious injury or illness. It overlaps, obviously, but is essentially very different from health care.

    Anyway, COVID has been dressed up as an excuse to not just destroy the economy, but in many ways, destroy society itself. Similar to global warming, Keynesianism, Marxism, and other forms of scientism.

    It’s one of many signs of how society is degrading at an accelerating rate.

    I don’t know what the next massive boondoggle is going to be after this is over. You might recall the police state pictured in the excellent movie “V for Vendetta” was brought into being because of a fake virus epidemic. Talk about life imitating art! If things keep going in this direction, the US will start looking like the old USSR.

    International Man: Society is degrading at an accelerating pace. What can people do to protect themselves?

    Doug Casey: Unfortunately, the whole world seems to worship democracy. Democracy, however, is really just mob rule dressed in a coat and tie. Worse, that trend is not only still in motion, but it’s accelerating.

    What can you do to protect yourself? It’s becoming a situation of sauve qui peut—every man for himself. That’s where gold comes in.

    I’ve always been a fan of gold—always for savings and often as a speculation. It’s been great, and gold bugs have done very well. It’s gone from $35 to over $1,700. And it’s going much higher.

    It’s a great way to save money and build capital over time. At the moment, I’m speculating in gold mining stocks, which are extremely cheap. I expect the next mania to be in them.

    But I don’t have any political solutions for people, except to stop looking to politics as the solution to problems. And stop acting like a bunch of chimpanzees looking for a leader.

    Politics is the problem, the cause of most of today’s problems. It’s not the solution.

    *  *  *

    Economically, politically, and socially, the United States seems to be headed down a path that’s not only inconsistent with the founding principles of the country but accelerating quickly toward boundless decay. It’s contributing to a growing wave of misguided socialist ideas. That is precisely why NY Times best selling author, Doug Casey just released this urgent new video titled The Most Dangerous Event of the 21st Century which outlines what comes next and what you need to do to be ready.

    Click here to watch it now.

  • China's Central Bank Vows To Expand Total Credit By 30% Of GDP In 2020
    China’s Central Bank Vows To Expand Total Credit By 30% Of GDP In 2020

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 20:30

    One of the curiosities about the current global financial crisis is that unlike the global financial crisis of 2008 when a massive credit injection by China sparked a generous reflationary wave around the world which pulled it out of a deflationary slump, this time around China has been far more modest as the following chart shows.

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    All that may be about to change.

    Speaking in a financial forum in Shangha, China’s central bank governor Yi Gang said that China will keep liquidity ample in the second half of the year, but it should consider in advance the timely withdrawal of policy measures aimed at countering the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    “The financial support during the epidemic response period is (being) phased, we should pay attention to the hangover of the policy,” Yi said. “We should consider the timely withdrawal of policy tools in advance.”

    In other words, just like the Fed, China is pretending that whatever is coming will be temporary. Which, in a world of helicopter money will never again be the case.

    But more importantly, we know that in order to boost its stagnating economy, China is about to unleash a historic credit injection: Yi said that new loans are likely to hit nearly 20 trillion yuan ($2.83 trillion) this year, up from a record 16.81 trillion yuan in 2019, and total social financing could increase by more than 30 trillion yuan ($4.2 trillion), or about 30% of GDP. A similar number for the US would be about $7 trillion which is more or less what the US deficit will be over the next 12 months.

    In other words, we’re going to need a much bigger chart of China’s broad credit.

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    Yi added that the bank’s balance sheet remains stable around 36 trillion yuan.

    While the PBOC has already rolled out a raft of easing steps since early February, including cuts in reserve requirements and lending rates and targeted lending support for virus-hit firms, it has yet to proceed with a major fiscal blast. Meanwhile, analysts expect the central bank to ease policy further to bolster economy.

    An in an amusing tangent, Reuters reported that Guo Shuqing, chairman of the banking and insurance regulator, told the same forum that China will not monetize fiscal deficits – in other words launch full-blown quantitative easing – and will not adopt negative interest rates. We wonder how long this promise will be kept.

    It takes time for global supply chains to recover, and economies around the world have to re-think how to exit from massive easing measures that were rolled out in response to the coronavirus pandemic, said Guo.

  • Iran Holds "Art" Exhibition Depicting US Police As Nazis, KKK
    Iran Holds “Art” Exhibition Depicting US Police As Nazis, KKK

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 20:00

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    Iran, governed by one of the most racist regimes on Earth, has sponsored an ‘international art exhibition’ using the death of George Floyd to tar America as deeply racist society.

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    The exhibition, titled “I can’t breathe” includes ‘art’ that depicts US police as Nazis and Ku Klux Klan.

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    Footage of the exhibition was broadcast on Iranian state television, showing one painting with a Guillotine for “only colored” people, with the blade as an American flag:

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    Another piece features the star of David crushing the neck of a dove, which is in itself a racist sentiment:

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    While the collection features pieces from people with 27 different nationalities, it is clearly being hosted and promoted by Iran as anti-American propaganda.

    The Iranian regime has basked in the unrest in America, with its ‘Supreme Leader’ and its Foreign Ministry bragging about how racist the US is on Twitter:

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    This coming from a country that viciously oppresses all minoritiessanctions brutally beating women if they dare to uncover their heads, and endorses the execution of people for their sexuality.

    Go on then Twitter:

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  • Fed's Balance Sheet Posts Biggest Weekly Drop In 11 Years
    Fed’s Balance Sheet Posts Biggest Weekly Drop In 11 Years

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 19:36

    After three months of record gains, which saw an increase of $3 trillion to $7.2 trillion, the Fed’s balance sheet has finally posted its first weekly decline since the start of the corona crisis according to the latest H.4.1 statement.

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    This was not only the first shrinkage in the Fed’s balance sheet since the week ended February 26, but also the biggest drop since May of 2009.

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    The drop, however, was not due to a reversal or even slowdown in QE which continues almost every single day, with the Fed adding over $100 billion in Treasurys and MBS, but due to an $88 billion decline in outstanding repos to $79 billion for the week ended Jun 17, 2020, as well as a $92 billion decline in liquidity swaps to $352 billion.

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    With the S&P500 closely tracking the Fed’s balance sheet in the past three months, which has served as the primary factor behind the rebound in the market, the latest weekly drop coincides with the period of heightened volatility in the past two weeks.

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    The shrinkage comes at a time when the Fed’s monthly liquidity injection has been tapered to approximately $120 billion, which suggests that while the balance sheet is likely to resume growing in the next week, it will be at a more gradual pace.

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    It also means that for the stock market to surge from this point on, Powell will need to find another justification to expand the Fed’s QE aggressively.

    Finally, those keeping track of how much corporate bonds the Fed has bought, the latest total for the Fed’s Corporate Credit Facilities LLC which includes purchases of both ETFs and corporate bonds, the Fed disclosed that as of June 17, there was $6.6 billion in book value of holdings (the Fed does not break out how many actual bonds it has bought vs ETFs).

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    Having started corporate bond ETF purchases on May 12, this means that the Fed has bought on average roughly $1.1 billion per week, a pace which has been more than sufficient to result in record fund inflows into various investment grade and junk bond ETFs.

  • The Cause Of Tension Between China And India
    The Cause Of Tension Between China And India

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 19:00

    Authored by Zamir Awan via the Saker Blog,

    Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said: “positive consensus” on resolving the latest border issue was achieved following “effective communication” through diplomatic and military channels. New Delhi said the two countries had agreed to “peacefully resolve” the border flare-up after a high-level meeting between army commanders. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese leader Xi Jinping had sought to ease the tensions at summits over the past two years when they agreed to boost border communications between their militaries.

    Tensions flare on a fairly regular basis between the two regional powers over their 3,500-kilometre frontier, which has never been properly demarcated. Thousands of troops from the two nuclear-armed neighbors have been involved in the latest face-off since May in India’s Ladakh region, bordering Tibet – before signs in recent days that a resolution was in sight.

    The recent issue arose when India fortified its position in Ladakh disputed territory, which India included in its union territory on August 5, 2019, unilaterally. In contrast, it was a recognized disputed territory, and both countries having a claim over the area. India was illegally trespassing and constructing defense facilities across the border into Chinese territory in the Galwan Valley region, leaving Chinese border troops no other option but to make necessary moves in response. India wants to build an airbase in the disputed territory. It is worth mentioning that, under a defense agreement, between the US and India, both countries can have access to each other’s military bases and have the right to use in case of any war-like situations. It was a direct threat to China if American uses Ladakh Airbase against China. That was the immediate concern of the Chinese side and left with no option to stop construction works in the disputed territory.

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    In India, the focus has been turned to the Durbuk- Shyok-Daulet Beg Oldi Road (DSBDBO) along the Galwan River — which runs more or less parallel to the LAC (Line of Actual Control) and improves India’s access to the Karakoram Highway — as the possible trigger point for the latest flare-up between China and India. India has designs to cut the land link between China and Pakistan to harm CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor). That is why India was fortifying its infrastructure close to Khunjrab-Pass, connecting China and Pakistan.

    However, China remains much more concerned about the newly constructed 80-kilometer stretch from Dharchula to Lipulekh (the gateway to Kailash-Mansarovar, a site for Hindu pilgrimage in Tibet), completed on April 17 and inaugurated on May 8 by Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh. That may have led Beijing to review the situation at the China-India borders.

    In the Chinese assessment, India’s construction activity in the disputed areas with Nepal has affected China’s border security in Tibet. By building the 80 km stretch (76 km has been completed recently, and the last 4 km of the road to Lipulekh Pass is expected to be completed by the year’s end), India has moved its frontier vis-a-vis China, gaining direct access to the concrete highway in Purang county in Tibet. It has thereby changed the status quo in the region. China already has border defense roads in Purang county on the middle border, and Cona county on the southern border with India and a Chinese airport in Purang is scheduled to be completed in 2021. Despite its preparedness on its side of the border, China is concerned that India still has much room for maneuver, using Nepal’s geographical advantage to challenge China’s dominant position in the region.

    As a matter of fact, India has disputes with all its neighbors like China, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Srilanka, and the Maldives. Indian expansionist theory of “greater India” is the cause of real trouble. In the past, India has occupied some of its neighboring independent sovereign states like Sikkim, Nagaland, Jammu & Kashmir, Hyderabad, Juna Garh, etc. India has a track record of aggression and coercion against its small neighbors. But may face a tough time from China. The lesson learned in the 1962 war, Indians should not have to develop enmity with China.

    Historically, the border disputes existed since 1947, when India got independence from British rule. This was the era of the Chinese revolution when a weak, corrupt and naïve government of Nationalist Party (Guo Ming Dang) was in power in Beijing, and the Communist Party of China, led by Chairman Mao, was over-engaged in the power struggle. The Government in China at that time was not strong, not stable, or not visionary and were fighting for their own survival. They were least bothered with their International borders, whereas, they were focusing on their grip on Beijing city only, as a symbol of their Government. The Britsh demarcation of the border was unjust and one-sided. There were Chinese territories marked into Indian control and vis-à-vis. The people’s republic of China was established in 1949, since then, China was demanding a rational border, but India was denying and delaying to resolve the border disputes.

    It is worth understanding the importance of Tibet, which is a region in East Asia covering Tibetan Plateau spanning about 2.5 million sq.km, with an average elevation of 4000 – 5000 meters above the sea. It is the major source of waters for China, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. Several major rivers have their source in the Tibetan Plateau. These include the Yangtze, Yellow River, Indus River, Mekong, Ganges, Salween and the Yarlung Tsangpo River (Brahmaputra River). Who rule over Tibet, will control the water. The Yarlung Tsangpo Grand Canyon, along the Yarlung Tsangpo River, is among the deepest and longest canyons in the World. Tibet is one of the most ancient civilizations, with its unique culture and traditions. India sponsored the Tibet Government in exile led by Dalai Lama, based in New Delhi, which is a permanent cause of tension between China and India. CIA classified documents revealed that the CIA helped India to establish Tibet exiled Government and used to pay them funding to date.

    Since the last two decades almost, the growing US-India relations were also not considered in Chinese favor. The US was supporting India politically and diplomatically to join UNSC, NSG, and other International platforms to counter China. The US has been extending economic and military assistance to India generously, to strengthen India to contain China. The US-India cooperation in Education, S&T, High-tech, Advance Technologies, especially in Defense, is raising many questions. India has become a “Major Defense Partner” with the US. India is an active member of the Indo-Pacific Treaty with Japan, Australia, and the US. India is openly opposing Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI), which is included in the Chinese Constitution and mega initiative of the Chinese Government. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is a flagship project of BRI, India, is engaged in sabotaging and damaging it. India opposes China on all issues in the International platforms. Indian over-tilt toward the US is also alarming for China. India has become the largest beneficiary of US aid after the state of Israel. The US will not offer a “free lunch” to India, but rather task India to “Count China,” “Contain China,” and “Resist China’s Rise.”

    The current geopolitics, especially the US-China rivalry, may add fuel to Sino-Indian tension. There are possibilities that the US may use this region as a battle-ground against China. Astrologists also predicts war in this region. The region is rather volatile and leading toward the danger of conflicts. It may not be a simple war between China and India but may engulf the whole region and world powers, including Russia and the US. Even it might spread to the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean too. It will not be a simple conventional war but will be high tech, including cyber-war, electronic-ware-fare, Space-Technolgy, and Artificial Intelligence. All the lethal weapons will be used, especially China, India, and Pakistan are all nuclear states and possess enough piles of weapons to destroy each other completely. Extremists have hijacked the Government in India and visibly moving toward rivalry with all its neighbors.

    It is worth mentioning that the population of China is 1.4 Billion, India 1.3 Billion, Pakistan 220 Million, Bangladesh 165 Million, the total population of this region is almost half of the Whole World’s population. Any misadventure may threaten half of the World. International Community may take serious notice and may step in to avert any disaster. We must think, not once or twice, but multiple times!

  • Dalio's Bridgewater Warns Of "Lost Decade" For Stocks
    Dalio’s Bridgewater Warns Of “Lost Decade” For Stocks

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 18:39

    At the end of January, when the news media was reporting of the first cases of an odd pneumonia-like diseases spreading in Wuhan, Ray Dalio appeared on CNBC during the annual billionaire pilgrimage to Davos, where he made a comment that would soon come back to haunt him: “You can’t jump into cash. Cash is trash.”

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    Little did Dalio know that just one month later the global economy would grind to a halt, the US stock market would suffer the biggest drop since the financial crisis, the Fed would announce the biggest ever bailout of corporate America and Congress would unleash a fiscal stimulus program the likes of which have never before been seen.

    Fast forward five months, when in a recent letter to Bridgewater investors, Dalio warns that a reversal of the strong growth seen over the years in U.S. corporate profit margins could lead to a “lost decade” for equity investors.

    So… cash is king?

    In the June 16 letter seen by Bloomberg, Bridgewater analysts write that the margins, which have provided a big chunk of the excess return of equities over cash, could face a shift that would go beyond the current cyclical downturn in earnings. They are referring to the following dramatic divergence between S&P income margins – which are at all time high s- and the true, unvarnished corporate profits, which as shown in the Goldman chart below have tumbled to decade lows even before the Coronavirus pandemic hit.

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    “Globalization, perhaps the largest driver of developed world profitability over the past few decades, has already peaked,” Bridgewater said adding that “now the U.S.-China conflict and global pandemic are further accelerating moves by multinationals to reshore and duplicate supply chains, with a focus on reliability as opposed to just cost optimization.”

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    The deglobalization trend has only accelerated in recent weeks as the pandemic-induced collapse in demand has already resulted in a huge fall in profit margins in the short term, the analysts added.

    Bridgewater cited Intel and Taiwan Semi as two examples of companies that have announced their intentions to build production facilities in the U.S., despite the higher costs.

    “Even if overall profits recover, some companies will die or their shares will devalue along the way. Left with lower levels of profits and cash shortfalls, companies are likely to come out on the other side of the coronavirus more indebted,” the report warned, appropriately just as the percentage of zombie corporations in the US – those that can’t even fund their their interest expense – is an all time high, and kept alive only thanks to the Fed’s direct purchases of corporate bonds.

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    Is Bridgewater right? Considering that less than half a year ago, its billionaire founder was urging the broader population to be in a well-diversified portfolio just before global stocks suffered their biggest crash in decades, one can certainly be cynical, especially in a time when retail daytraders on Robinhood can retire in just a few trading days if they pick the rick momentum stock du jour. On the other hand, if Dalio is right, he is effectively saying that the Fed will no longer be able to propel stocks ever higher, which coming at a time when Powell confirmed last week that it is his intention to blow an even bigger asset bubble in hopes of creating jobs, means that the Fed will lose control.

    Of course, so far the Fed (and retail investors) are winning: as we reported last week, the hedge fund giant suffered a 15% drop in assets under management during March and April, as its assets fell to $138 billion at the end of April from $163 billion at the end of February.

  • Model 3-Way: Elon Musk Reportedly Had Threesome With Amber Heard And Cara Delevingne At Johnny Depp's LA Penthouse
    Model 3-Way: Elon Musk Reportedly Had Threesome With Amber Heard And Cara Delevingne At Johnny Depp’s LA Penthouse

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 18:30

    Johnny Depp’s lawsuit against his ex-wife Amber Heard has revealed that Heard once had a threesome with Elon Musk and Cara Delevingne. Delevingne is the latest person to be dragged into the lawsuit, which initially had little to do with her.

    Now, a deposition has revealed that she allegedly had a “three way affair” with Heard and Musk at Johnny’s Depp’s downtown LA penthouse in late 2016. 

    Depp is reportedly considering serving Delevingne with a subpoena to try and discover whether she has any information that could prove useful to his case.  Depp has already demanded that Musk turn over electronic messages with Heard around the time of Depp and Heard’s 2016 split. 

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    One insider told the Daily Mail: “Cara could also be compelled to give evidence – by either party. It’s definitely a possibility. Almost anything can happen in this case.”

    Depp first sued Heard after she claimed in an op-ed last year to be the victim of domestic violence. Though she didn’t name Depp personally, he says the allegation led him to lose his role as Captain Jack Sparrow in the Pirates of the Caribbean movie series. 

    The threesome revelation came as a result of the deposition of Josh Drew, a friend of Amber Heard.

    Drew was asked: “Did she ever tell you in words or substance while Amber was still married to Johnny Depp that the three of them, Amber Heard, Elon Musk and Carla Delevingne spent the night together?”

    He replied: “Yes. To the specific date, I can’t say.”

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    He was then asked: “So they were having a three-way affair, correct?” 

    To which he responded: “My understanding, yes.”

    A source close to Musk denied the claims. Meanwhile, actor James Franco has also been subpoenaed in the case. 

    A Depp text message that was read as part of a separate proceeding in London, where the actor is suing the taboid the Sun, said of Heard: “Brother, I’m sorry to even ask but she sucked mollusc’s crooked d*** and he gave her some sh**y lawyers.” 

    “I have no mercy left of what I thought was love for this gold-digging, low level, dime-a-dozen mushy, pointless, flappy fish market.”

  • Daily Briefing – June 18, 2020
    Daily Briefing – June 18, 2020


    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 18:25

    Managing editor Ed Harrison joins Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisor Group, to discuss the latest developments in markets, macro, and coronavirus. Harrison and Boockvar dive into what the trajectory of inflation will be and how it’s not a monolithic concept, talk about the possibility and implications of a V-shaped recovery, and explore the broader investment opportunities ahead. In the intro, Peter Cooper explains how the wedge between Wall Street and Main Street continues to be driven deeper.

  • Status Update
    Status Update

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 18:01

    Here’s what’s going on.

    We can do what the Federalist did, and pull the entire comment section to stay alive, or we can implement a filter to comments which avoids triggering a limited number of keywords that started this whole fiasco (one can figure out the context there) and get reinstated. At the same time, there are legislative developments in the pipeline which we reported on earlier, which may or may not come to pass. We are not holding our breath.

    We are going with option 2 because we would like to preserve the comments, and the website. We are doing everything we can to maintain an open forum. That said, now that we know which way the winds are blowing, we are urgently working on a premium version of the site which will be independent of outside forces, and ad free. Incidentally many of the commentators that got us here, were the result of targeted provocation by people who don’t have this site’s best interest at heart, and they will be gone.

    One other thing: we have also been deplatformed by PayPal, which is why the donation section is different now.

    In summary, there is a full blown assault against this website and even if we go premium it is unclear what will happen if all funding lines are cut off. We’ll cross that bridge if and when we get there.

    Bottom line: we are just asking for some patience.

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 18th June 2020

  • Sweden Says Herd Immunity "Surprisingly Slow" To Develop Despite Avoiding Lockdowns
    Sweden Says Herd Immunity “Surprisingly Slow” To Develop Despite Avoiding Lockdowns

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 02:45

    Despite allowing its economy and schools to remain open during the coronavirus outbreak, Sweden is finding that the incidence of COVID-19 antibodies among its population is still surprisingly uncommon, suggesting that the country hasn’t yet reached the point of “herd immunity”, unlike other European countries which embraced much more drastic measures to stop the spread and the deaths.

    Speaking to the nation during an interview on a Swedish radio station, Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s government epidemiologist and architect of its coronavirus containment strategy (a model that Goldman analysts claim wouldn’t work elsewhere in Europe or in the US), noted that the development of herd immunity is taking much longer than expected. Per Tegnell: “the trends in immunity have been surprisingly slow.” He also says “it’s difficult to explain why this is so.”

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    To be sure, Tegnell noted, there is “always a lag in all such measurements,” and the percentage of the population with detectable COVID antibodies is likely higher today than it was a few weeks ago, when a surveillance test carried out by a private Swedish company found that only 14% of Swedes have antibodies, compared to more than 50% of Italians in some of the hardest-hit parts of Northern Italy.

    Critics of Sweden’s strategy have been more vocal lately now that the country’s death toll has surpassed the 5,000 mark, leaving Sweden with a mortality rate well above its Nordic neighbors.

    As the country’s mortality rate has climbed in recent weeks, polls have reflected a growing dissatisfaction among Swedes with the government’s handling of the virus, though Tegnell’s approach remains broadly popular.

    To be sure, Tegnell has acknowledged that some mistakes were made, and has said if he could do it over, he would have done some things differently, including directing more resources toward protecting the most vulnerable. But he never disavowed his approach, as some English-language media outlets have twisted his words.

    For those who don’t understand the concept of ‘herd immunity’, Bloomberg created a helpful illustration. Even readers who think they understand how it works should probably take a look.

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    Sweden’s Parliament held a memorial for those who have lost their lives, or family members and friends, to the virus. “This moment is for all of those who have lost their work, their health, their lives,” Andreas Norlen, parliament’s speaker, said. “The parliament is mourning. Sweden is mourning.”

    Tegnell and Swedish PM Stefan Lofven have insisted that Sweden’s strategy was the right choice. It was based on an assumption that the virus would be around for a long time – a fair assumption considering we don’t yet have a vaccine – rendering any short-term lockdowns effectively useless.

    As the debate around what might constitute a more “sustainable” model for dealing with the outbreak rages, India is finding that even after 2 months of one of the most restrictive lockdowns on the planet, the virus came roaring back as soon as restrictions were lifted. So far, we haven’t seen a similar pattern emerge in Europe. But all of this just serves to remind us how little scientists really know for certain about the virus.

  • Floundering NATO Tries To Surface By Confronting China
    Floundering NATO Tries To Surface By Confronting China

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Brian Cloughley via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    On June 8 Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of the U.S.-NATO military alliance, gave a speech at NATO’s new billion dollar headquarters in Brussels. It was followed by a selection of patsy questions, but in spite of the trite predictability of Stoltenberg’s statements and the eager friendliness of the questioners, enough was said to indicate that NATO is still on the lookout for enemies to attempt to justify its continuing shaky existence.

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    New on the Stoltenberg list is China, which is a long way from the North Atlantic. He was reported as declaring that “the rise of China is fundamentally shifting the global balance of power, heating up the race for economic and technological ­supremacy, multiplying the threats to open societies and individual freedoms and increasing the competition over our values and our way of life.” He wants NATO to become involved with the U.S. in confronting China which has a population of 1.4 billion, the longest land border in the world (22,117 km) and a coastline of 14,500 km (the U.S. coastline is 19,924 km), which enormous numbers are ample justification for maintenance of a large defence force.

    But he complained that China “already has the second largest defence budget. They are investing heavily in modern military capabilities, including missiles that can reach all NATO Allied countries. They’re coming closer to us in cyberspace. We see them in the Arctic, in Africa. We see them investing in our critical infrastructure. And they are working more and more together with Russia. All of this has a security consequence for NATO Allies. And therefore, we need to be able to respond to that, to address that.”

    This is not altogether consistent with the North Atlantic Treaty which is precise in stating that the members of the military alliance “undertake, as set forth in the Charter of the United Nations, to settle any international dispute in which they may be involved by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security and justice are not endangered, and to refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations.” Yet Stoltenberg, with the energetic guidance of Washington, is threatening a “global approach” against China. The fact that Russia and China are “working more and more together” is a major factor in Stoltenberg’s justification for revving up confrontation, and Washington thoroughly approves of measures that could disrupt mutually beneficial economic cooperation between Beijing and Moscow.

    In May 2020 members of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee proposed a multibillion dollar “Pacific Deterrence Initiative” intended to expand U.S. military deployment in Asia and “send a strong signal to the Chinese Communist Party that the American people are committed to defending U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific.” Then in early June Senator Tom Cotton (he who wishes to use armed soldiers to put down protestors in his own country) introduced legislation titled “Forging Operational Resistance to Chinese Expansion (FORCE)” with a multi-billion dollar price tag. It is intended to “help thwart the Chinese Communist Party’s main geopolitical aim [of] pushing the United States out of the Western Pacific [and] achieving cross-strait unification with Taiwan via military force.”

    It is not surprising that Stoltenberg has leapt on the anti-China bandwagon, but his reference to Beijing’s defence budget being second-largest in the world is somewhat misleading. He emphasised that NATO countries “represent 30 members, close to one billion people” but didn’t mention the fact that military spending by all these countries totalled over 1 trillion dollars (USD 1,036,077,000,000) in 2019 while China’s expenditure was $261 billion. The U.S. on its own spent an awe-inspiring $732 billion, indicating that that the rest of NATO shelled out $471 billion which is decidedly more than China’s outlay. As Stoltenberg announced on 29 November 2019, NATO members “are also investing billions more in new capabilities and contributing to NATO deployments around the world. So we are on the right track but we cannot be complacent. We must keep up the momentum.”

    Then there is the matter of nuclear weapons. According to the Arms Control Association the United States (which is modifying its F-15E Strike Eagle multirole fighters to deliver B61-12 nuclear gravity bombs) has “1,365 strategic nuclear warheads deployed on 656 intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers.” So far as NATO is directly concerned the U.S. has deployed an estimated 150 B-61 nuclear gravity bombs at six NATO bases in five European countries: Aviano and Ghedi in Italy; Büchel in Germany; Incirlik in Turkey; Kleine Brogel in Belgium; and Volkel in the Netherlands. These are in addition to the 300 nuclear weapons of France and Britain’s 200.

    China has an estimated 290 nuclear weapons, so by no stretch of the imagination could be described as a nuclear-expansionist or global threat. In fact the reason that China embarked on a nuclear weapons programme in the Fifties was the U.S. nuclear threat, as enunciated by the commander of Strategic Air Command, the near-psychotic General Curtis LeMay who was asked what should be done if the truce in the Korean war were to break down because of Chinese military action and replied “There are no suitable strategic air targets in Korea. However, I would drop a few bombs in proper places like China, Manchuria and South-eastern Russia.” This caused alarm bells to ring in Beijing (and Moscow) — and they have been ringing ever since.

    In addition to overflight of the South China Sea by USAF nuclear bombers, and aggressive manoeuvres by U.S. Navy missile-armed destroyers aimed at provoking action by China in that region, the Pentagon is operating the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group (CVN 76) in the waters near the Philippines, and CVN 71, the USS Ronald Reagan, is preparing to sail from Guam. The commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet announced on June 8 that the USS Nimitz (CVN 68) and its Strike Group had left San Diego “in support of global maritime security operations”, but there is no secret about its operational commitment, as on 12 June the director of operations at Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Stephen Koehler, told Associated Press that “Carriers and carrier strike groups writ large are phenomenal symbols of American naval power. I really am pretty fired up that we’ve got three of them at the moment.”

    The picture is one of increasing U.S. military encirclement of China, combined with such economic pressure as it can manage bring to bear in order to weaken its government. While Stoltenberg’s NATO is anxious to join in this campaign in order to justify its continuing existence, its contribution would be insignificant to the point of absurdity. Stoltenberg claims that “NATO does not see China as the new enemy or an adversary” yet wants the alliance to “address the security consequences of the rise of China” by joining the Pentagon’s antics.

    NATO is a disaster and has achieved nothing in its military deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan. For Stoltenberg to assert that its involvement in the war in Afghanistan has enabled “the Afghans to fight the terrorism themselves, to stabilise their own country” is preposterous. The world as a whole would benefit if NATO quietly disbanded.

  • Turkey Launches 'Largest Ever' Air & Ground Assault Into Northern Iraq
    Turkey Launches ‘Largest Ever’ Air & Ground Assault Into Northern Iraq

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 06/18/2020 – 01:00

    NATO-member Turkey has controversially initiated a major bombing campaign over northern Iraq targeting Kurdish armed groups, specifically the outlawed PKK which Ankara has long said uses Iraqi territory to conduct a cross-border insurgency.

    The military incursion also involves ground troops. On Tuesday evening the Turkish Defense Ministry announced the start of “Operation Tiger Claw” with the following statement: “In order to neutralize the elements of the ‘Kurdistan Workers Party’ (PKK) and other terrorist elements that threaten the security of our people and our borders, victory has reached the heroes of the commando units who are currently in the Haftanin area.”

    Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs – outraged at yet another violation of Iraqi sovereignty – promptly summoned the Turkish ambassador to Baghdad and lodged a memorandum of protest.

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    Turkish ministry of defense photo of Turkish troops in action against Kurdish militants in northern Iraq, via AP.

    The Erdogan government, meanwhile, has claimed it’s acting in ‘defense’ after PKK insurgents have launched repeat attacks from Iraqi and Syrian soil over the past years. 

    Multiple reports suggest that this particular operation is unprecedented in its scale:

    Special forces were airlifted and deployed overland to the border region of Haftanin in the early hours of Wednesday for Operation Claw-Tiger. The campaign targeted 150 suspected Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) positions and was supported by jets, helicopters, drones and artillery, the Turkish defense ministry said.

    The ongoing airstrikes included attacks in and around Sinjar Mountain, where it must be remembered tens of thousands of members of the ethno-religious group, the Yazidis, took refuge from ISIS in 2014, after which a US military rescue mission ensued to protect the group. It’s yet another example of local US allies coming under NATO member Turkey’s bombs.

    The Turkish Defense Ministry further issued the following propaganda video upon the start of “Operation Tiger Claw”:

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    The bombings have reportedly impacted Yazidi refugee camps in the area as well. Critics of this latest Turkish aggression against the Kurds and other ethnic minorities have pointed out that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has remained silent.

    Stoltenberg has in the past not only remained silent amid the pattern of Turkish cross-border attacks, but has repeatedly defended Turkey, which has the second-largest army in NATO behind the United States.

    Alongside Iraq’s government, the Arab League has also weighed in to condemn the new operation, which further threatens the northern Iraq border region’s civilians, especially the vulnerable internally displaced refugee population (IDPs).

  • Politicisation Of The Great Lockdown Result Of "TINA"-Economic-Ignorance & Censorship
    Politicisation Of The Great Lockdown Result Of “TINA”-Economic-Ignorance & Censorship

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 23:45

    Authored by Ramin Mazaheri for the Saker Blog,

    In the United States questioning liberal economic ideology is not tolerated, so when the latest inevitable economic bust in capitalism occurs it is little wonder that their society talks about everything except economic ideology. They spend their time inventing and discussing non-economic solutions to economic catastrophes, which is precisely how their fundamental weaknesses and inequalities only get worse and worse.

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    Now we are talking about the murder of George Floyd, police brutality and White supremacy – these are old but still important issues, but they are also certainly issues which will not lead to systematically redistributing one cent towards governmentally-abandoned African-American areas.

    The fall of the USSR and the triumphant parades led by banners bearing TINA – There Is No Alternative (to neoliberalism and neo-imperialism) – encouraged Americans to throw away their textbooks on the “dismal science” of economics. “Yeah,” they said, “Marx might have been interesting in his day, but it’s all over now – get with the times: it’s the economy, stupid! (whisper) But seriously – don’t openly question liberal economic ideology.”

    For those of us following the data it has become quite clear: “Everything Bubble 2” is a great pica-saving handle to describe the 2020 Western economy, but it gives the wrong impression that what’s going on is just a repeat of 2008 (when Everything Bubble 1 popped) – it’s actually much worse. Nobody expected Everything Bubble 2 to be popped by something as economically-suicidal as a Great Lockdown, but we now have no choice but to add the effects of the two together, so… wow… we just cannot say that this is like 2008, or 2001, or 1929, or any other era.

    But in the US you can’t say anything about ideological economic direction, of course. This leads us to two realisations about their society which are now obvious to all:

    1) By abandoning economic ideological debate for three decades Americans can only politically snipe each other to death in 2020 because they simply cannot intelligently discuss economics, much to the glee of the 1%.

    2) By censoring ideological debate the US is unable to devise new solutions to the latest capitalist bust, so in order to end this very atypical capitalist bust they are vainly reapplying previous solutions: hyper-partisanship, militarism and economic ideological totalitarianism.

    Combine these two realisations and it’s clear that the American solution to their 2020 economic crisis is militarist in nature: Militarism against those who disagree with the Mainstream, militarism to guide the economic way out, and militarism towards the Covid-19 germ as well. As a result of the George Floyd murder we may even add a fourth militarism – though one which will surely end after the November presidential election – militarism against anti-Black racism.

    Why would this “solution” of militarism be a surprise to anyone?

    Removing economics from politics creates stupid politics, but also hyper-partisanship

    Americans today have only one solution for domestic or international failure – declare war on the other guy, even if he is a fellow citizen.

    This economic crisis is so bad for the already-weakened West that one would think the economic debate for its solutions would have never become partisan. (Considering that both mainstream parties agree on TINA – what was there to argue about economically, anyway?) Georgia, Florida and Texas have cities just as dense as Illinois, Michigan, California, New York and New Jersey, but it can’t be a coincidence that this latter camp of blue-states remain economically closed with a severity and duration seemingly unparalleled in the world.

    It is as if working with the other side – even for the good of the nation – implies risking a deadly (moral) contagion? It’s as if doing a single thing Trump did, suggested or supported makes one an irredeemable “deplorable”? It’s as if losing an election this November is a bigger catastrophe in the minds of politically-involved Republican and Democrat citizens than the unprecedented capitalist catastrophe of having over 40 million unemployed people?

    All I can say is: LOL you can’t possibly run a nation that way. I am as political as anybody, but if unemployment was 25% my primary motivation would not be getting credit at the polling booth!

    So it’s an amazing proof of how undesirable the American cultural-political-economic model truly is when we observe how the re-opening of their economy has become such a politically-polarised issue.

    That may or may not be old news to many, but here is something which is never discussed: This seeming “militarisation of political partisanship” is predicted on confining mainstream political discussion solely to exactly that – the alleged importance of political partisanship. Western culture’s proclamation of TINA, the chucking out of economic textbooks and censoring “time-wasting” economic debate has thus given two-party political affiliations an entirely outsized place in US culture.

    And TINA was always going to be especially fatal for heterogenous Western societies: In a country like Iran, which is 90% Shia, or homogenous & self-segregated Japan it’s perhaps not necessarily economics which can hold the title of “champion of societal unification”, but in the very heterogeneous West economic class clearly provides the broadest basis for life-saving and nation-saving unity. (The West’s White supremacists will sputter that, “It didn’t used to be this way here!” Who cares? It is this way now for your children, and it was only ever not “this way” because of massive segregation.) National unification may be rejected by Trotskyists, but not everyone wants to see the nation founder in response to every serious crisis.

    But by rejecting discussion of economic unity (a.k.a. class warfare against the 1%) the West could only logically choose to emphasise other factors in its place, i.e. political, cultural, ethnic, sexual, gender and religious factors, all of which (for their heterogeneous societies) are inherently less unifying and even quite controversial. In a crisis this disunity is not just readily apparent but leads to tangible disaster – certainly the West is currently burning in crisis.

    The problem goes deeper than their facile blaming of only the political and media classes: there are many everyday American citizens who clearly want to increase the stranglehold of this economic crisis in order to oust Trump or just their local incumbent. In 2020, because they are not in power, it’s logical to agree that Democrats are acting the most desperately and power-hungrily. However, it’s not as if Republicans are promoting consensus, unity and high ideals – of course they are using the economic crisis to achieve the neoliberal tenet of slashing government ranks down to just cops and fire departments.

    It is not an exaggeration to say that by removing economics from the discussion US political culture has become not “militant” – which has positive connotations of ideological purity – but “militarist”: Democrats and Republicans are going on the war path to stoke problems instead of focusing on societal unity amid this unprecedented crisis.

    You couldn’t honestly talk about imperialism with an American in 2019, and it’s not like they want to hear about it now; nor can you honestly talk about capitalism with an American despite its current epic fail; in June 2020 they want to talk only about how their political party is superior, and how corona is the new Black Plague, and now they’ve added a new problem they’ve recently discovered: police brutality against Blacks.

    The problem of this faux-militancy, which has such a gaping intellectual void (the lack of an economic component), is similarly and glaring obvious in the centuries-old militarisation of imperialist US culture: War on Indians, war for/against slavery, war on socialism, war on Soviet-led communism, war on poverty, war on drugs, war on Muslims – the US solution of “war on corona” is thus not at all unique for them.

    The new – and probably temporary – “war on police brutality” is certainly necessary but cannot possibly reach the halls of power nor the ears of the US vanguard party of bankers.

    The solution in US corporate fascism is always war, but conquering corona yields no booty

    The real economic ideology of the US is – of course – corporate fascism, which is why their military-industrial complex had a ready solution to the 2001 Y2K/dot.com bust via declaring war on the Muslim world. Very profitable indeed, and it allowed their Pentagon-planned economy (the Pentagon is the world’s largest employer) to continue organising the very unequal US economic redistribution.

    There was no new war to be had in 2008 – Obama could only double down on the existing wars (after accepting his Nobel Peace Prize) and double down on the status quo economic ideology as well: QE dropped helicopter money at the problem and hoped the problem was resolved. It was resolved very satisfactorily indeed, but only for the 1% and their asset classes.

    In 2020 Everything Bubble 2 was popped by the Great Lockdown and a new war was declared: against corona. As if Red men with tomahawks had amassed just outside the picket-topped fort, Americans threw themselves wholeheartedly into this battle for self-survival. Now, as the stock market has been boosted with taxpayer QE money back to pre-crisis levels, Americans are (kind of) throwing themselves into a battle against police brutality as well.

    Declaring war is what American culture does, period.

    What does war do? It rallies around the flag – for countries who were not inspired by 1917 it is truly the “champion of societal unification” – but there is no booty to be had this time: no new frontiers to provide cheap land; no new resources to allow Western manufactures to be made more cheaply; no oil; not even any way to use US taxpayer money to pay mercenaries in order to boost the stock prices of Pentagon-linked corporations.

    Americans need to realise that “keep-capitalism-alive-through-jingoism” is a primary pillar of imperialism, and that true patriotism is never allowed in neoliberal capitalism – thus their hyper-partisanship today. War also provides a useful distraction from endemic economic inequality, which is why this “endless war” ruse has been going on across the anti-socialist West ever since WWI.

    The West has thrown themselves into the war on the corona germ, but their lower classes are screaming that this war is economic suicide. Once the war on corona is over – even if the West extends past the “surge” this fall or even into 2021 – economic ideology will finally have to be discussed.

    But the West doesn’t ever have to do that intelligently – they were the economic ideological winners, right?

  •  Putin Has Three 'Disinfection Tunnels' To Shield Him From COVID 
     Putin Has Three ‘Disinfection Tunnels’ To Shield Him From COVID 

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 23:25

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has three disinfection tunnels, one at Novo-Ogaryov, his official residence, located in a Moscow suburb, and two others at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, reported Russian news agency Ria Novosti.

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    Reuters published a video showing how the tunnel sprays a “fine water mist” covering the clothes and exposed areas of the occupant who steps through with a disinfectant solution. It was noted by Ria Novosti, that anyone who visits Putin will have to step through the tunnel.

    The report made no mention of the type of disinfectant solution used. However, in two past reports, we noted the solution could be “a fine mist of water and nitrogen” or electrified tap water that produces a hypochlorous acid (which is an environmentally friendly disinfectant that kills bacteria and viruses). 

    Putin’s tunnels were designed and built by a firm in western Russia. The three were installed in April as confirmed virus cases and deaths exploded across the country.  

    Confirmed COVID-19 cases in Russia 

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    COVID-19 number of deaths in Russia 

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    Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said the tunnels were installed at the height of the pandemic — he noted, lockdown restrictions are being eased as cases and deaths decrease. 

    At some point, these tunnels are coming to America — could be seen at stadium entrances. 

  • Exploring The Hypersonic Strike Systems Of The United States
    Exploring The Hypersonic Strike Systems Of The United States

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 23:17

    Via SouthFront.org,

    Even two years ago, hypersonic weapons were barely an item of discussion among the US national security establishment. Today these weapons are all the rage. What accounts for that sudden emergence of US interest in this category of weapons, which has spurred research and development on several different weapon systems that are to enter service at some point in the upcoming decade? And what are the implications of their eventual likely entry into service?

    The triggering reason is most likely the failure of US, French, and British stand-off weapons used against Syria, specifically against targets covered by modern air defenses. Russian and even Soviet-era surface-to-air gun and missile systems racked up an impressive tally of successful interceptions of Tomahawk cruise missiles that still represent the most important component of the US stand-off weapon arsenal. Even the supposedly stealthy cruise missiles like France’s SCALP-EG, Great Britain’s Storm Shadow, and the US JASSM-ER proved to have low survivability against modern defenses. Israel’s equivalent munitions were not an exception to that rule, as they too had to rely on saturation attacks or, more likely, striking targets that were outside the integrated air defense bubble. Compounding the problem was the absence of sub-strategic ballistic missiles, with the exception of the short-ranged US Army TACMS which, while a formidable weapon, is too slow to evade interception by tactical anti-ballistic systems.

    Nor were “hard kill” defenses the only weapons that proved effective against the array of NATO’s air- and sea-launched cruise missiles. Though hard data is difficult to come by, there is evidence suggesting “soft kill” electronic warfare measures were quite effective at countering a wide variety of stand-off munitions as well.

    Collectively, these experiences have shaken US and NATO confidence in their chosen technological approach that emphasized stealth for every aerial vehicle in their arsenals, including manned and unmanned platforms as well as missiles. Yet even though stealthy cruise missiles such as the JASSM and its anti-ship version, the LRASM, might be successful at avoiding targeting by long-range radar-guided weapons, the fact that they are jet-powered means they are detectable by infrared imaging sensors at closer ranges. The remarkable information campaign waged by NATO countries against the Pantsir-S short-range air defense system is a reflection of its effectiveness as a missile, bomb, and drone-killer.

    Whereas the US military establishment embraced stealth as a “silver bullet” technological solution to all manner of tactical and even strategic problems, Russia’s approach was more measured. While the studies that have led to this conclusion probably will remain classified for a long period of time, the Russian military came to the reasonable conclusion that since avoiding detection cannot be guaranteed, the best way to deal with missile defenses is to decrease exposure time by making the missiles ever-faster. This trend was already evident during the Cold War, when NATO settled for subsonic anti-ship missiles such as the Exocet, Harpoon, Penguin, Otomat, and ultimately the Tomahawk which had both anti-ship and land-attack applications, which relied on stealth of sorts in the form of flying at extremely low altitudes. USSR, on the other hand, already by the late 1960s was making a major investment in highly supersonic air-, surface- and submarine-launched missiles. By 1980s, Soviet weapons were increasingly employing air-breathing ramjet propulsion which pushed their speeds ever-closer to the hypersonic realm. NATO’s use of ramjet propulsion during that time was limited to surface-to-air missiles such as the British Sea Dart and US Talos, while its cruise missiles were almost exclusively jet-powered.

    Russia’s evolutionary development of these technologies has led both to systems already in service, such as the Oniks and Kalibr cruise missiles (with an anti-ship variant of the latter employing a highly supersonic terminal stage). These are be soon joined by the Tsirkon, a genuinely hypersonic cruise missile, the Avangard ICBM maneuvering re-entry vehicle and the Kinzhal aeroballistic missile derived from the Iskander INF-threshold 500km range ballistic missile.

    US interest in conventional hypervelocity strike weapons is not exactly new. The George W. Bush administration initiated the Prompt Global Strike program which made its first appearance in the 2001 Nuclear Posture Review, shortly before the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty. Nevertheless, in the post-9/11 wars the US has shifted attention and budgets away from strategic weapons and towards counterinsurgency, therefore while the interest in these weapons was never abandoned, it was nowhere near the top of US defense priorities. Not even the rapid deterioration of Russia-NATO relations in 2014 and later years led to visibly greater interest in these weapons. The Trump Administration’s two rounds of cruise missile strikes against Syria, however, appear to have had that effect. As a result, every service of the US military is interested in the development of at least one weapon system that would provide with hypervelocity strike capabilities. With the exception of Avangard, every Russian system mentioned has a similar US system under some stage of development.

    The Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) is quite literally the US equivalent of the Iskander, possessed of similar range and capabilities. There are two versions of the weapon being developed, one by Lockheed-Martin which conducted the first test launch in 2019, and another by Raytheon which appears to be behind schedule. While the weapon is intended to be used from the same HIMARS launchers that Army TACMS uses, the missile itself has considerably greater range of just under 500km, though it is widely assumed it is going to be extended to 700km. The original official 500km range requirement was placed when the INF Treaty was still in force, but since that treaty’s demise was already being planned by the White House, it is rather likely the two competitors were informed that actual desired range was greater than the specified one.

    The Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) picks up where the PrSM leaves of, and moreover is one of the missile designs using the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) developed by Sandia National Laborary. C-HGB is an Avangard-like though smaller maneuvering hypersonic vehicle that has been tested at speeds of up to Mach 8 and ranges in excess of 6,000km as part of the Army Hypersonic Weapon program that has since been folded into this and other projects. Operational LRHW range will depend on the kinematics of the carrier. However, since the START I treaty defines an ICBM as a missile with a range exceeding 5,500km, if LRHW has performance comparable to the AHW, it would be a de-facto road-mobile ICBM. While it is planned as a delivery vehicle for conventional payloads, nothing prevents it from carrying nuclear warheads. LRHW and other long-range surface-launched hypersonic weapons may be the reason the United States has shown no interest in extending New START treaty which uses the same definitions and which is set to expire in 2021. The US Army hopes to have the first LRHW battery in service in 2023, though that date is likely to slip, if only because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The Intermediate Range Conventional Prompt Global Strike (IRCPS) is the US Navy’s equivalent of the LRHW in the sense that it uses C-HGB. However, unlike the missiles mentioned earlier, it does not appear to have a custom-designed launch vehicle but will instead use repurposed Trident SLBMs, most likely the intermediate-range Trident I. One point which speaks in favor of Trident I is that its smaller size makes it compatible with the Virginia Block III attack submarines “Virginia Payload Tubes” which normally carry Tomahawk SLCM packs but which are large enough to accept a single Trident I-based IRCPS. So here too we see a deliberate blurring of the line separating strategic and non-strategic weapons. Since the C-HGB can be used as a nuclear delivery vehicle, it would transform the US Navy’s future attack submarines with suitable launch tubes into ballistic missile submarines.

    Unlike LRHW and IRCPS, the Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) does not use the C-HGB. That weapon was supposed to be the Hypersonic Conventional Strike Weapon (HCSW) which is still advertised on the Lockheed-Martin web site, alongside ARRW, IRCPS, and LRHW, but which was rejected in favor of ARRW, a smaller vehicle with a different, smaller glide body. The USAF chose ARRW over HCSW because the smaller size would enable B-52s and B-1s to carry larger numbers of these missiles, and even permit F-15 fighters to act as carriers.

    Since all of these weapons have ranges bordering or possibly even exceeding the strategic armaments’ range threshold of 5,500km and moreover could have nuclear variants, they should properly be termed strategic weapons. With the exception of the PrSM, their capabilities go well beyond the need to launch battlefield strikes or to target key rear-area facilities. These missiles’ capabilities in some respects even exceed those of Cold War-era IRBMs like the Pershing II. Indeed, even when carrying conventional payloads, their high velocity turns them into very effective “bunker-busters” capable of threatening ICBM launch silos and underground command centers. This makes them ideal first-strike weapons, used against leadership and weapons sites, with the target country’s degraded nuclear response being restrained or limited by US anti-ballistic missile defenses which are being developed in parallel with hypersonic strike capabilities, and the still-untouched US nuclear arsenal.

  • Trump Says Bolton Broke The Law, Says China Could Have "Easily" Stopped The Virus Spread
    Trump Says Bolton Broke The Law, Says China Could Have “Easily” Stopped The Virus Spread

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 23:15

    Shortly after lengthy excerpts of neocon John Bolton’s upcoming book were leaked to various media outlets, President Trump accused his former National Security Advisor of breaking the law by trying to publish a book on his time in the White House, even as his administration was seeking an emergency restraining order to halt its publication.

    “He broke the law, very simple. As much as it’s going to be broken,” Trump told Sean Hannity on Fox News Wednesday night. “This is highly classified.”

    Among the various claims by Bolton is that Trump encouraged China’s president Xi to build detention camps in the Xinjiang region to imprison hundreds of thousands of Uighur Muslims; not coincidentally just hours after the leaks, Trump signs a bill punishing Chinese officials over Uighur internment camps, which in turn prompted an angry response by China which vowed to retaliate if the US uses the Bill and asked the asks the to stop using the bill to hurt its interests and interfere in China’s internal affairs. “Otherwise, China will for sure firmly retaliate.”

    Trump also responded that Bolton had been a “washed up guy” when he brought him into the administration. “I gave him a chance, he couldn’t get Senate-confirmed, so I gave him a non-Senate confirmed position, where I could just put him there, see how he worked. And I wasn’t very enamored.”

    Speaking to Hannity by telephone, the president said that “nobody has been tough on China and nobody has been tough on Russia like I have. And that’s in the record books and it’s not even close. The last administration did nothing on either.”

    In the lengthy interview Trump also touched on several other topics, including the ongoing virus pandemic, claiming the US was in great shape to deal with the virus, and claiming that China should have kept the virus where it was as it could have “easily” stopped the virus spread.

    Trump also covered the ongoing protests, said that he will be visiting the border wall “very soon”, and called for schools to reopen by the fall.

  • Investing Legend Jeremy Grantham Is "Amazed" At This Unprecedented Stock Bubble
    Investing Legend Jeremy Grantham Is “Amazed” At This Unprecedented Stock Bubble

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 22:46

    Two weeks ago, the generally cheerful investing icon Jeremy Grantham unleashed fire and brimstone, taking his $7.5BN portfolio to a net short position for the first time since the financial crisis, and summarizing his dire assessment of the current unprecedented situation simply by saying “this will end badly.”

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    Turns out, Grantham was only getting started.

    Doubling down on his apocalyptic message, the one-time value investing guru told CNBC that the US stock market is in a unprecedented bubble and investing in it is “simply playing with fire.”

    “I have been completely amazed,” the veteran bearish investor said in an interview Wednesday on CNBC. “It is a rally without precedent – the fastest in this time ever and the only one in the history books that takes place against a background of undeniable economic problems.”

    His advice to an entire generation of young daytraders jumping into the market now should sell U.S. stocks, buy emerging market equities and “throw the key away” for a few years, he said, adding “this is becoming the fourth real McCoy bubble of my career.”

    He also had some bad news for those fighting the Fed: “The great bubbles can go on for a long time and inflict a lot of pain.” The previous three bubbles Grantham referred to were Japan in 1989, the tech bubble in 2000 and the housing crisis of 2008.

    Commenting on the insanity in Hertz, which today was mercifully stopped by the SEC before even more young Robinhood traders would take their lives – like Alexander E. Kearns, facing a $730,000 negative cash balance – Grantham said events like firms trying to sell stock in bankrupt companies should make “any bear feel better.”

    Refusing to buy the V-shaped recovery narrative, Grantham also said that it’s difficult to imagine when the broad economy will completely recover from the effects of the pandemic.

    Where does Grantham’s unprecedented bearishness come from? Simple: as he wrote in his latest investor letter, which we recapped last week, “the market and the economy have never been more disconnected” and while “the current P/E on the U.S. market is in the top 10% of its history… the U.S. economy in contrast is in its worst 10%, perhaps even the worst 1%…. This is apparently one of the most impressive mismatches in history.”

    For those who missed it, here is the rest of our observations:

    As a result of this total loss of coherence driven by trillions in central bank liquidity that have propelled a massive wedge between fundamentals and stock prices, GMO, the Boston fund manager Mr Grantham co-founded in 1977, cut its net exposure to global equities in its biggest fund from 55% to just 25%, near the lowest levels it reported during the global financial crisis, according to a separate update from GMO’s head of asset allocation, Ben Inker.

    That decision, according to the FT, slashed GMO’s Benchmark-Free Allocation Fund exposure to US equities from a net 3-4% to a net short position worth about 5% of the $7.5bn portfolio, said Inker, perhaps the first time the fund has turned net short US stocks since the crisis. This, after GMO loaded up on stocks during the sell-off but has since cut offloaded its exposure to the US market following the unprecedented 40% rally in the past 2 months.

    “The Covid-19 pandemic “should have generated enhanced respect for risk and it hasn’t. It has caused quite the reverse,” Grantham told the Financial Times. He noted that trailing price-earnings multiples in the US stock market were “in the top 10 per cent of its history” while the US economy “is in its worst 10 per cent, perhaps even the worst 1 per cent”, echoing what he said in his quarterly letter.

    And while markets seem to be taking all the negative news in stride, Grantham is worried that the wave of devastation that is coming is unlike anything experienced before:

    At GMO we dealt with three major events prior to this crisis, and rightly or wrongly, we felt “nearly certain” that sooner or later we would be right. We exited Japan 100% in 1987 at 45x and watched it go to 65x (for a second, bigger than the U.S.) before a downward readjustment of 30 years and counting. In early 1998 we fought the Tech bubble from 21x (equal to the previous record high in 1929) to 35x before a 50% decline, losing many clients and then regaining even more on the round trip. In 2007 we led our clients relatively painlessly through the housing bust. In all three we felt we were nearly certain to be right. Japan, the Tech bubbles, and 1929, which sadly I missed, were not new types of events. They were merely extreme cases akin to South Sea Bubble investor euphoria and madness. The 2008 event also was easier if you focused on the U.S. housing euphoria, which was a 3-sigma, 100-year event or, simply, unique. We calculated that a return trip to the old price trend and a typical overrun in those extreme house prices would remove $10 trillion of perceived wealth from U.S. consumers and guarantee the worst recession for decades.All these events echoed historical precedents. And from these precedents we drew confidence.

    But this event is unlike all those. It is totally new and there can be no near certainties, merely strong possibilities. This is why Ben Inker, our Head of Asset Allocation, is nervous and this is why you are nervous, or should be.

    While the uncertainties are indeed large, one can triangulate a sufficiently material dose of “certainty” about what is coming, and as Grantham explains further, it is not pretty, especially with the US economy already on the back foot heading into the crisis:

    We had U.S. and global problems looming before the virus: an increasingly disturbed climate causing global floods, droughts, and farming problems; slowing population growth, in the developed world, soon to be negative; and steadily slowing productivity gains, especially in the developed world, and therefore a slowing GDP trend. In the U.S., our 3%+ a year trend is down to, at best, 1.5% in my opinion. It is closer to a 1% maximum in Europe. We had, as mentioned, top 10% historical P/Es in the U.S. and much the highest debt level ever in the U.S. for both corporations and peacetime government. So, after a 10-year economic recovery, this would have been a perfectly normal time historically for a setback.

    And then the virus hit.

    Simultaneously, it is causing supply and demand shocks unlike anything before. Ever. It is generating a much faster economic contraction than that of the Great Depression. And unlike 1989 Japan, 2000 Tech (U.S.), and 2008 (U.S. and Europe), it is truly global. The drop in GDP and rise in unemployment in four weeks have equaled what took one to four years to reach in the Great Depression and were never reached in the other events. Rogoff & Reinhart, Harvard Professors who wrote the definitive analysis of the 2008 bust, agree that this event is indeed completely different and suggest it will take at least 5 years to regain 2019 levels of activity. But this is a guess. We really don’t know how long it will take. Nearly certain is that a V-shaped recovery looks like a lost hope. The best possible outcome would be that there will be, almost miraculously, billions of doses of effective vaccine by year-end. But most viruses have never had a useful vaccine and most useful vaccines have taken well over five years to develop and when developed have been only partially successful. Yes, this time there will be an enormous effort with unprecedented spending. But still, a leading vaccine expert says quick success would be like “drawing successfully to several inside straights in a row.” And even if all works out well with a vaccine there will remain deep economic wounds.

    Meanwhile, as the world waits for a vaccine, and buys stocks confident one is imminent, the “bankruptcies have already started (Hertz on May 22nd) and by year-end thousands of them will arrive into a peak of already existing corporate debt. It will need spectacular management, which it may get. But it may not. Throwing money – paper and electronic impulses – at the problem can help psychology and, particularly, the stock market, where extra stimulus money can end up but does not necessarily put people back to work; there will be up to 20% unemployment for at least a moment.”

    In response to this historic economic collapse, central banks’ unprecedented stimulus efforts have “temporarily overwhelmed” underlying economic realities but “it’s hard to believe that will continue.”

    And when it stops, watch out below: Grantham told the FT in an interview that after seeing markets price in “total recovery” over recent weeks, “my confidence that this will end badly is increasing.”

    Speaking as protests against police brutality and racism filled the streets of US cities, Grantham said previous outbreaks of social instability had had few lasting effects on the US economy, but “there are more things going wrong than normal“.

    However, the value investing legend’s most dire prediction was that “if you look back in two to three years and this market turns around and drops 50%, the history books will say ‘That looked like one of the great warnings of all time. It was pretty obvious it was destined to end badly,” Grantham said, adding: “If it does end badly the history books are going to be very unkind to the bulls.” For the sake of an entire generation of Robinhooders who will lose everything if there is a 50% crash, one hopes Grantham is wrong.

    Finally, Grantham also chimed in on the “most important question in finance right now”, revealing that he was proud of not having “made a fuss about inflation” in 20 years of writing his widely followed letters, but said that record amounts of monetary easing from central banks had now created the possibility of inflationary pressures.

    “With a generous stimulus program in many countries you can just about daydream about inflation for the first time in 30 years.”

    To this, all we can add is that in the very near future that daydream will become a nightmare.

  • US Futures Slide As Kim Threatens South Korea With "Explosive Justice Far Beyond Imagination"
    US Futures Slide As Kim Threatens South Korea With “Explosive Justice Far Beyond Imagination”

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 22:28

    Having literally blown-up their diplomatic channel, North and South Korean officials (and state mouthpieces) are rattling sabres at one another is ever-escalating language tonight.

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    First, Yonhap reported that North Korea is preparing to redeploy troops to two inter-Korean business zones near the border and reinstall border guard posts removed under a tension reduction deal.

    “Units of the regiment level and necessary firepower sub-units with defense mission will be deployed in the Mount Kumgang tourist area and the Kaesong Industrial Zone where the sovereignty of our Republic is exercised,” a spokesperson of the General Staff said in a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency.

    The official said that “civil police posts” that had been pulled back from the Demilitarized Zone straddling the inter-Korean border under a military deal “will be set up again to strengthen the guard over the frontline” and open areas along the border to support leaflet-sending by its own people into the South.

    That triggered a small drop in futures.

    But, then Yonhap confirmed that South Korea’s top nuclear envoy arrived in Washington on Wednesday for talks with U.S. officials. His visit was unannounced, leading to speculation that he may have been sent as a special envoy by the presidential office, Cheong Wa Dae, triggering another leg down in futures.

    And finally, North Korea’s official newspaper said that this week’s demolition of an inter-Korean liaison office was just the beginning, warning there could be additional retaliatory steps against South Korea that could go “far beyond imagination.”

     “It is just the beginning,” the Rodong Sinmun, the organ of the North’s ruling party, said of Tuesday’s destruction of the liaison office.

    “The explosive sound of justice that will continue to come out could go far beyond the imagination of those who make a noise about what could unfold.”

    “Our military’s patience has run out,” the paper added. “The military’s announcement that it is mulling a detailed military action plan should be taken seriously.”

    Dow futures are down 350 points from the US cash market close…

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    If only The Fed could print up some ‘peace’?

  • It All Comes Back To The Fed: The NWO Is Being Shoved Down Our Throats
    It All Comes Back To The Fed: The NWO Is Being Shoved Down Our Throats

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 22:25

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    The coronavirus was a heck of a cover for the Federal Reserve’s failings, and the riots laid even more cover for what’s to come. While the masses focus on what’s happening on the surface, the real criminals laugh at our ignorance from their metaphorical ivory towers.

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    As we fight amongst ourselves and try to figure out which violence is more acceptable looting or police brutality, the ruling class is tightening the chains of our enslavement. With the help of the mainstream media, we are distracted from the core of the problem while dividing ourselves as the masters command.

    “We need to direct our attention and our fury at the Federal Reserve,” says Brian of the YouTube channel High Impact Vlogs. This channel is being heavily censored by YouTube for speaking truth to power. But Brian keeps on making videos to try to wake people up.  Watch this one before it’s removed. The video starts at 6:30.

    The corporate entity, known as mainstream media, is LITERALLY, the propaganda arm for the military-industrial complex, so they WILL NOT expose lies. The lies that lead us into devastating wars. Devastating and costly wars that we cannot afford. So you can’t trust CNN.”

    “If there is anything that we’ve learned from history…it is that we do NOT learn from history. CNN (this so-called “authoritative” source for news) has consistently lied to us as they’ve pushed their agendas and promoted banker wars,” wrote Brian in the pinned comment on this video.

    You cannot trust CNN. You cannot trust lamestream, fakestream media. We know that they have an agenda. We know that they cherry-pick facts. And we know they lay down heavy deception. They are there to distract, deceive, and divide the masses. And what’s really going on in this country, remember, make no mistake; the Federal Reserve is laying cover for their operation to get rid of the dollar and move us all into a one-world digital reserve currency. And once we get rid of physical currency, guys, that is the granddaddy of them all as far as a surveillance state. Because they will be able to detect every single purchase by every single person every moment of the day.”

    We have to resist the control the bankers want over all of us. If you choose to use their currency when it’s rolled out, you will be their slave. This is why we have repeatedly suggested leaving the system and ceasing compliance right now.  Get into precious metals and use the dollar only when you have to.  And DO NOT use the new one-world digital currency.  Become as self-reliant as you can. Open your eyes, and realize what’s being done.  The government will not stop the New World Order.  It’s right on schedule.  The only way to stop it is by all of us standing together and creating our own free society out of non-compliance with their demands we become their slaves.

  • Status Update
    Status Update

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 22:11

    Here’s what’s going on.

    We can do what the Federalist did, and pull the entire comment section to stay alive, or we can implement a filter to comments which avoids triggering a limited number of keywords that started this whole fiasco (one can figure out the context there) and get reinstated. At the same time, there are legislative developments in the pipeline which we reported on earlier, which may or may not come to pass. We are not holding our breath.

    We are going with option 2 because we would like to preserve the comments, and the website. We are doing everything we can to maintain an open forum. That said, now that we know which way the winds are blowing, we are urgently working on a premium version of the site which will be independent of outside forces, and ad free. Incidentally many of the comments that got us here, were the result of targeted provocation by people who don’t have this site’s best interest at heart.

    One other thing: we have also been deplatformed by PayPal, which is why the donation section is different now.

    In summary, there is a full blown assault against this website and even if we go premium it is unclear what will happen if all funding lines are cut off. We’ll cross that bridge if and when we get there.

    Bottom line: we are just asking for some patience.

  • China Deploys Miniature Robo-Tank With "Ferocious Firepower" 
    China Deploys Miniature Robo-Tank With “Ferocious Firepower” 

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 22:05

    The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) deployed a new robot equipped with a machine gun, night vision, missile pod, camera, and variety of sensors that will free up human soldiers from unnecessary danger. 

    “Equipped with a machine gun, and observation and detection equipment including night vision devices, the robot can replace a human soldier in dangerous reconnaissance missions, the report said. Target practice results showed the robot has acceptable accuracy, and the use of weapons still requires human control,” People’s Online Daily said. 

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    Capable of carrying a machine gun, the small ground robot can traverse complicated terrains and replace human soldiers in dangerous reconnaissance missions. h/t People’s Online Daily, CCTV

    PLA forces in the Eastern Theater Command said Monday via Weibo — they’re “in possession of the small ground robot, which can traverse complicated terrains, accurately observe battlefield situations, and provide ferocious firepower.” 

    A military expert told the Global Times that the new robot would allow soldiers to avoid dangerous confrontations with enemy forces by sending the weaponized device to the front line. 

    It was not clear if the robot will be controlled in full autonomy mode or through a remote operator. The size of the robot will allow it to operate as a forward-positioned weapon for ground attacks. 

    Along with China, the US military has been deploying combat robots on the modern battlefield. We recently noted that the Pentagon has had an obsession with robots from Rhode Island-based weapons company Textron. 

    A cold war is developing between the US and China — we’ve noted this on many occasions, pointing out, the first superpower to deploy hypersonic weapons and fifth-generation stealth fighters will be victorious in the next global conflict. 

  • Vermont Principal Put On Leave For Not Agreeing With Black Lives Matters
    Vermont Principal Put On Leave For Not Agreeing With Black Lives Matters

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 21:45

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    We have yet another teacher suspended or put on leave for merely expressing her opinion of Black Lives Matter on her personal Facebook page.  After Tiffany Riley wrote that she does not agree with the BLM, the Mount Ascutney School Board held an emergency meeting to declare that it is “uniformly appalled” by the exercise of free speech and Superintendent David Baker assured the public that they would be working on “mutually agreed upon severance package.”  The case magnifies concerns over the free speech rights of teachers on social media or in their private lives.

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    As we have previously discussed (with an Oregon professor and a Rutgers professor), there remains an uncertain line in what language is protected for teachers in their private lives. There were also controversies at the University of California and Boston University, where there have been criticism of such a double standard, even in the face of criminal conduct. There were also such an incident at the University of London involving Bahar Mustafa as well as one involving a University of Pennsylvania professor. Some intolerant statements against students are deemed free speech while others are deemed hate speech or the basis for university action. There is a lack of consistency or uniformity in these actions which turn on the specific groups left aggrieved by out-of-school comments.  There is also a tolerance of faculty and students tearing down fliers and stopping the speech of conservatives.  Indeed, even faculty who assaulted pro-life advocates was supported by faculty and lionized for her activism.

    Most recently, we discussed the effort to remove one of the country’s most distinguished economists from his position because Harald Uhlig, the senior editor of the Journal of Political Economy,  criticized Black Lives Matter and Cornell Law School professor William A. Jacobson is reportedly facing demands that he be fired because he wrote a blog about the Black Lives Matter movement.

    So what is the act that uniformly appalled the school board?  Riley wrote:

    “I do not think people should be made to feel they have to choose black race over human race. While I understand the urgency to feel compelled to advocate for black lives, what about our fellow law enforcement? What about all others who advocate for and demand equity for all? Just because I don’t walk around with a BLM sign should not mean I am a racist (sic).”

    She said that she actually does believe that black lives do matter but was motivated to write to object to “the coercive measures taken to get to this point across; some of which are falsified in an attempt to prove a point.” One can certainly disagree with that view.  Indeed, it could be the foundation for a substantive discussion on how to best protect black lives and how to deal with police abuse.  However, it was declared “tone deaf” because Riley was challenging an approved or orthodox position.

    Simply because she shared her view of BLM in her private life, Baker declared ““They don’t see any way that she’s going to go forward as the principal of that building given those comments and that statement. It’s clear that the community has lost faith in her ability to lead.”

    What about the faith and tolerance of free speech?  There is not even a nod of concern over the right of people to support reforms but not necessarily the BLM movement or some of its more controversial positions.

    As always, I come to these issues from a free perspective. I am less concerned with the merits of the position than I am in the refusal to allow one side to be stated without punitive measures. I would take (and have taken) the same position if the view on BLM were reversed.  I fail to see what educators cannot express their views in favor of or against BLM in participating in one of the most important periods of debate in our history. The message to educators is that you must not criticize BLM in your private life if you want to keep your job.  The board does not even entertain the possibility that Riley might not be a racist and still question BLM, which has been involved in controversies over academic freedom and free speech on campuses.  We have never had any organization treated as so inviolate that it cannot be challenged by anyone in their private or personal discourse.

    Teachers in Chicago can go to Venezuela to support a dictator who has arrested and murdered scores of people, including suppressing free speech and the free press. They were not punished or declared “tone deaf.” Boards like Mount Ascutney School Board engage in open content-based regulation of speech of teachers in the private lives of teachers.  They will be applauded for such action against free speech as people ignore the implications of such punitive measures.

    This is not about BLM. It is about free speech. Of course, the Board is not being “tone deaf.” Mount Ascutney School Board has guaranteed that there will be no sound at all, at least no dissenting voices heard among its teachers.

  • Americans Are The Saddest In 50 Years As 2020 Turmoil Crushes Hope For Kids' Futures
    Americans Are The Saddest In 50 Years As 2020 Turmoil Crushes Hope For Kids’ Futures

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 21:25

    Americans are more miserable in 2020 than they’ve been in nearly five decades, according to the COVID Response Tracking Study, conducted by the National Science Foundation (NORC) at the University of Chicago, reported AP News

    The survey of 2,000 Americans reveals that just 14% of adults say they’re very happy, down from 31% in 2018. That year, 23% said they felt isolated, it has since doubled, now 50%.  

    Conducted in May, the survey captures Americans’ beliefs, mental health, and outlook before, and during the COVID-19 outbreak.

    However, most responded before the death of George Floyd, which triggered nationwide social unrest and widespread destruction of many downturn districts in the country. Americans were already facing hardships because of virus-related issues if that was a job loss, insurmountable debts, isolationism, and mental health problems

    With nearly a half-century of survey data — this was the first time the survey dipped below 29% of Americans have called themselves very happy, which has now crashed to 14%. If social unrest was reflected in the polling data, the level is likely much lower as the country has descended into socio-economic chaos. 

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    Another finding is the rapid deterioration in the standard of living. Only 42% of Americans believe their children will have a better life than they did — opposed to 57% answering the same question in 2018. 

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    The amount of Americans reporting that they’re lonely has doubled since 2018, which is not surprising given several months of lockdowns to mitigate the spread of the virus. 

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    Louise Hawkley, a senior researcher with NORC, was surprised that more respondents weren’t lonelier — noting that social media and video conferencing has enabled people to connect digitally. 

    “It isn’t as high as it could be,” she said. “People have figured out a way to connect with others. It’s not satisfactory, but people are managing to some extent.”

    AP spoke with several Americans, who detailed their sad stories as hope for a better life has collapsed: 

    Lexi Walker, a 47-year-old professional fiduciary who lives near Greenville, South Carolina, has felt anxious and depressed for long stretches of this year. She moved back to South Carolina late in 2019, then her cat died. Her father passed away in February. Just when she thought she’d get out and socialize in an attempt to heal from her grief, the pandemic hit.

    “It’s been one thing after another,” Walker said. “This is very hard. The worst thing about this for me, after so much, I don’t know what’s going to happen.”

    Jonathan Berney, of Austin, Texas, said that the pandemic — and his resulting layoff as a digital marketing manager for a law firm — caused him to reevaluate everything in his life. While he admits that he’s not exactly happy now, that’s led to another uncomfortable question: Was he truly happy before the pandemic?

    “2020 just fast-forwarded a spiritual decay. When things are good, you don’t tend to look inwards,” he said, adding that he was living and working in the Miami area before the pandemic hit. As Florida dealt with the virus, his girlfriend left him, and he decided to leave for Austin. “I probably just wasn’t a nice guy to be around from all the stress and anxiety. But this forced an existential crisis.”

    Berney, who is looking for work, said things have improved from those early, dark days of the pandemic. He’s still job hunting but has little savings to live on. He said he’s trying to kayak more and center himself so he’s better prepared to deal with any future downturn in events.

    Melinda Hartline, of Tampa, who was laid off from her job in public relations in March, said she was in a depressed daze those first few weeks of unemployment. Then she started to bike and play tennis and enrolled in a college course on post-crisis leadership.

    Today, she’s worried about the state of the world and the economy, and she wonders when she can see her kids and grandkids who live on the West Coast — but she also realizes that things could be a lot worse.

    “Anything can happen. And you have to be prepared,” she said. “Whether it’s your health, your finances, whether it’s the world. You have to be prepared. And always maintain that positive mental attitude. It’s going to get you through it.”

    The smoke and mirrors of “the greatest economy ever” has come crashing down with tens of millions unemployed and an economic crash that could take several years to recover. Nevertheless, a virus pandemic and social unrest continue to rage across the country as the Trump administration and Federal Reserve bailout corporate America/Wall Street elites at the expense of the real economy — no wonder the average American’s psyche has collapsed to five-decade lows — it is because the country is imploding as wealth inequality is soaring. 

  • "Just Say No…" To The 'New Normal'
    “Just Say No…” To The ‘New Normal’

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 21:05

    Authored by Adam Dick via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    Sometimes a video can communicate important political ideas very well and quickly. That is the case with the two-minute video “No New Normal” at the Essential People YouTube page.

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    Starting off, it seems as if the video, like many others, is promoting that people make all sorts of sacrifices, changing their lives drastically and painfully, to counter coronavirus. Then, the video takes a quick turn, harshly criticizing the coronavirus crackdown and the “new normal” of dystopian restrictions on human actions that people in government and media often assert must persist. At the same time, the video denounces Bill Gates who has been a prominent backer of the crackdown and promoter of the “new normal.”

    The video also provides a haunting visual demonstration of the dehumanizing nature of the masks and other face coverings that some governments and businesses are mandating people wear.

    The video was posted in April, before a much increased recognition that coronavirus is way less threatening to most people than proclaimed through the imposing of coronavirus restrictions in America and before the United States, state, and local governments began their much-touted ramping down of their coronavirus crackdowns. Yet, unfortunately, the video still very much addresses the current state of intense restrictions in America and the continued ominous talk of subjecting people to a “new normal” forever.

    Much of the ramp-down has been glacial in pace. It has also been accompanied by the introduction and expansion of attacks on liberty in the name of countering coronavirus, such as surveillance programs termed “contract tracing” and mandates that people wear masks. Meanwhile, some politicians are working hard to ensure a significant portion of restrictions enacted in the name of countering coronavirus stick around no matter what. Plus, there is the persistent threat of starting a new round of full-out crackdowns to deal with a “second wave” of coronavirus, another disease, or some other future “emergency.”

    The lyrics in the song played in the video say, “wake me up when it’s all over.” Unfortunately, there are people, including in government and the media, who want to make sure the precoronavirus “old normal” never returns.

    Watch the video here:

  • "Money They're Desperate For": Many Gig Workers Still Can't Get Their Unemployment Benefits
    “Money They’re Desperate For”: Many Gig Workers Still Can’t Get Their Unemployment Benefits

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 20:45

    It has now been several months since the federal government has implemented monetary stimulus to try and alleviate the financial effect of the coronavirus pandemic and the ensuring economic shut down.

    Back in the beginning of May – nearly 6 weeks ago – we highlighted how many gig workers were still waiting for their first round of unemployment benefits. Today, past the mid-point of June, many of those workers are still waiting, according to CBS Chicago.

    And we wonder what is helping fuel the riots in the streets over the last few weeks…

    The money appears to be on hold due to audits, according to gig workers that spoke to CBS. Meanwhile, the same workers say that it is “money they’re desperate for”. 

    One worker, Bill Mylan, says the government has had his information “for months” but he still hasn’t received benefits. “We’ve missed out on two to three good months of making money already,” he said. He has had no income since March, which is when he first applied for unemployment. 

    He eventually reapplied through the state’s Pandemic Unemployment Assistance portal, because he’s considered a gig worker. That portal only just opened last month. 

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    “I’ve been doing little odd jobs for my landlord just to get by; make ends meet. It says on my claim it’s a benefit payment control issue,” he said. When he called to ask about it, he got a recorded message simply saying “We are closed due to unforeseen circumstances.”

    When he reached someone at the Illinois Department of Employment Security, they told him the holdup was due to an audit.  “I don’t understand why now, the last step, is all of a sudden to do an audit when we’ve been in the system,” he said.

    CBS reached out to IDES who told them the Benefit Payment Control division is within their fraud division.

    An IDES spokesperson said: “Each claim filed in the PUA system goes through a check based on the responses provided by the claimant. The PUA system will also check with the regular unemployment system to determine if the claimant is eligible for regular unemployment benefits.”

    They continued: “Per federal guidelines, a claimant will receive benefits from the regular unemployment system if they have been determined eligible for regular benefits. The Benefit Payment Control (BPC) division is the IDES fraud division. When a case is reported for fraud, the BPC will step in to investigate and make a determination after assessment and investigation. This unit it performing the job duties as required.”

  • Tom Cotton Says "Low-Level Twitter Employee" Tried To Bully Him Into Deleting Tweet
    Tom Cotton Says “Low-Level Twitter Employee” Tried To Bully Him Into Deleting Tweet

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 20:05

    Shortly before Senator Tom Cotton publicly backed a Senate GOP bill that would make the liability shield enjoyed by social media companies contingent on a pledge not to suppress political speech, he shared an experience with the staff of Twitter, who tried to intimidate the senator into deleting several of his tweets.

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    Cotton caused a near-mutiny inside the New York Times, causing the newspaper to take a major reputational hit, after kowtowing to a mob of ‘woke’ journalists-activists (apparently a large faction among the NYT’s reporters, many of whom claimed that the paper “put black reporters in danger” by publishing Cotton’s editorial, not exactly the view of an “objective” journalist).

    On Wednesday, as the debate over Silicon Valley censorship raged, Cotton published an editorial on Fox News’ website, and later appeared on TV to share the story again. In it, he shared how “a low-level employee in Twitter’s Washington office” nitpicked the language in one of his tweets – just like they recently did with President Trump’s use of the phrase ‘when the looting starts, the shooting starts’, which the left claims has a ‘secret racist history’, Cotton used the phrase “no quarter”, a common English-language idiom –  and threatened to permanently suspend his account if he didn’t delete the tweet. They allegedly gave him 30 minutes to comply.

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    Like Trump, Cotton clearly intended the phrase to reflect the common idiomatic usage (Trump, on the other hand, perhaps went a little overboard with his trademark bluster, but we doubt he was aware of the term’s “historical significance”, as WaPo once put it).

    Still,threatened one of the senator’s aides that Cotton had to delete the tweet within 30 minutes or have his account suspended.

    After trying to explain this to the twitter staffer who was liaising with his team, the staffer said she would “take this back to my team”, while Cotton’s team opted to play it safe and comply.

    Cotton recounts the interaction in a section from the op-ed:

    On June 1, Americans awoke to news of rioting and looting in our streets. In Washington alone, rioters burned an historic church, looted many businesses and defaced memorials to Abraham Lincoln and the veterans of World War II.

    First on television, then on Twitter, I noted that the National Guard and active-duty troops could be called out to support local police if necessary, as happened during the 1992 Los Angeles riots. “No quarter for insurrectionists, anarchists, rioters, and looters,” I wrote.

    This was apparently too much for the professional umbrage-takers on Twitter. In high dudgeon, they exclaimed that “no quarter” once meant that a military force would take no prisoners, but instead shoot them.

    Never mind that the phrase today is a common metaphor for a tough or merely unkind approach to a situation. For instance, former Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg and The New York Times have used the phrase in this way. Or that politics often employs the language of combat as metaphors: campaigns, battleground states, target races, air war and ground war, and so forth. And, of course, the exaggerated foolishness that I was literally calling for the arrest and summary execution of American citizens.

    But a sense of proportion is not Twitter’s long suit. Within a few hours, a low-level employee in Twitter’s Washington office contacted some of my aides at random, claiming that my tweet violated the company’s policies. She also issued an ultimatum: delete the tweet or Twitter would permanently lock my account. She gave me only 30 minutes to comply.

    My aide tried to reason with the employee. We offered to post a new tweet clarifying my meaning — which I did anyway — but the employee refused, insisting I had to delete the original tweet because some snowflakes had retweeted it.

    We asked why my tweet wouldn’t simply be flagged, as Twitter recently did to a tweet by the president. She contended that Twitter only did so for heads of state, not elected legislators, though its policy plainly states otherwise. The only option, she reiterated, was deleting the tweet or losing my account.

    Finally, we provided them some dictionary definitions of “no quarter.” She said that she would “take that back to our teams.”

    Is this really the new status quo? Being held responsible – and censored accordingly – for even the most uncharitable interpretations of every word, every phrase? Does that really sound like a responsible way to build trust in an on-line “community”?

  • Australia Says Border Won't Reopen Until 2021; COVID-19 Infections Climb In Texas, California: Live Updates
    Australia Says Border Won’t Reopen Until 2021; COVID-19 Infections Climb In Texas, California: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 19:58

    Summary:

    • Texas, California report another jump in new cases
    • Illinois Gov tests negative
    • Aussie border won’t reopen to foreign travelers until next year
    • 1/3rd of workers at Orlando International test positive
    • Italy reports another 43 deaths
    • NYC on track for ‘Phase 2’ reopening Monday
    • Texas reports 11% jump in hospitalizations
    • Fla. positivity rate hits highest level since April
    • Fla. reports another jump in new cases
    • Health-care worker and 15 friends infected after night out at Fla. bar
    • Pakistan report another alarming jump in COVID cases
    • Beijing expands lockdowns to nearly 30 residential compounds
    • India suffers deadliest day yet
    • WHO praises UK dexamethasone trial
    • Global case total tops 8.1 million

    * * *

    Update (1645ET): After reporting another jump in hospitalizations earlier, Texas has followed that up with a near-record jump in new cases, suggesting that the outbreak’s pace hasn’t slackened.

    • TEXAS VIRUS CASES JUMP 3.4%, SURPASSING 7-DAY AVERAGE OF 2.7%

     The increase pushed the statewide total to 96,335. As hospitalizations surge across the state, health authorities in Houston warned that two hospitals in America’s 4th-largest city have been “saturated” with COVID-19 cases, and are unable to accept additional COVID-19 patients, according to David Perrse, the city’s director of emergency medical services, per BBG.

    * * *

    Update (1515ET): The latest figures out of California have been released, and unfortunately (for the market’s sake), we’ve seen another unsettling jump in cases, just after the country was taken off the NYT’s list of state’s with increasing casesl

    • CALIFORNIA COVID-19 CASES RISE 2.2% VS. 7-DAY AVG. 2%
    • CALIFORNIA COVID CASES RISE BY 3,455, THIRD-BIGGEST DAILY JUMP

    The market reaction was overwhelmed by the coordinated leaks of John Bolton’s book, which the White House has repeatedly tried to stifle on national security grounds.

    Combined with the Florida numbers from earlier, the biggest jump in the state’s positivity rate since April 12 (a sign that the state might be bowing to the criticisms of a former employee), the Cali numbers have certainly helped stir anxieties, but between the salacious claims in the Bolton book, and the looming threat of confrontation between nuclear powers (not only China and India), the market has plenty to worry about.

    On a lighter note, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker tested negative on Wednesday after attending protests and purportedly coming into contact with a carrier.

    * * *

    Update (1305ET): Just days after New Zealand confirmed its first handful of cases in nearly a month (after PM Jacinda Ardern), Australia’s trade minister just said that the country is unlikely to reopen its borders to international travelers until next year, though it will look to relax entry rules for students and other “long-term” visitors.

    Australia’s close trade ties to China also probably factored into the decision. Here’s more from Reuters:

    Australia has been largely successful in containing the spread of the novel coronavirus, which it attributes to curbs on international travel and tough social-distancing rules.

    Birmingham said a quarantine rule for returning citizens could be applied to international students and other visitors who plan to stay for a long period of time.

    “We can simply work through the 14-day quarantine periods that have worked so well in terms of returning Australians to this country safely,” Birmingham said in a speech to the National Press Club.

    The return of international students will be a boost for universities facing big financial losses with the border closed as international education is Australia’s fourth-largest foreign exchange earner, worth A$38 billion ($26.14 billion) a year.

    Australia has had more than 7,300 cases of the coronavirus and 102 people have died from COVID-19, the disease it causes.

    It recorded its biggest daily rise in new infections in more than a month on Wednesday, with the most of them in Victoria, the second most populous state.

    Victoria reported 21 new cases overnight, of which 15 are returned travellers in quarantine, taking the total tally for the day to 22 cases, with some states yet to report their data.

    Additionally, we have an update from OIA regarding the number of workers who tested positive. That 260 figure represents the total figure who have tested positive since March. Also, the total number of airport employees at OIS is 25,000, not 800. We apologize for the error.

    For everybody arguing that this isn’t a ‘second wave’ (which, while probably true, entirely misses the point), take a look at the following tweet.

    * * *

    Update (1200ET): After Gov. Ron DeSantis announced that 500 workers at Orlando International Airport had been tested for COVID-19 after several of their colleagues tested positive, it appears the outbreak at the airport is far more pervasive than officials expected.

    260 of the airports more than 25k employees have tested positive, according to several media reports published late Wednesday morning, according to a local Orlando TV station.

    Gov. Ron DeSantis said 260 workers at the Orlando International Airport have tested positive for the coronavirus after nearly 500 employees were tested.

    “[An]Airport in Central Florida had a couple of cases, they did the contract tracing. They looked [at] almost 500 workers [and] 260 people working close together were positive, 52 percent positivity rate on that one,” DeSantis said.

    The news comes after Florida reported more than 2,780 new cases of the virus, the biggest daily jump yet. More than 80,100 people have tested positive and the state has recorded roughly 3,000 deaths.

    The Florida Department of Health announced that 5.5% of people taking a COVID-19 test have tested positive for the virus. Gov. DeSantis said this month around 30,000 COVID-19 test results are coming back each day.

    Perhaps a silver lining is that Florida’s ICU numbers and the number of patients on ventilators are still below their peak from April.

    Meanwhile, in Italy, officials reported just 43 deaths on Wednesday, up from 34 the day before but still well below levels from the peak, when hospitals around the country were reporting nearly 1,000 new deaths a day.

    * * *

    Update (1130ET): NY State just reported that the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from across the state has dropped below 1,500.

    That’s 1,000 less than the number hospitalized in Texas. Cuomo is delivering his daily newsbriefing. Watch it below.

    After reviewing the daily figures, Cuomo said NYC – the biggest hotspot in the state – is on track to enter its ‘Phase 2’ reopening on Monday…now that businesses have finally removed all the plywood and other reinforcements installed during the riots and protests, which probably won’t lead to a spike in infections because they were for a good cause, right? Cuomo has asked everyone who attended the protests to get tested.

    The UK Department of Health and Social Care just released the latest outbreak data.

    * * *

    Update (1045ET): In addition to reporting more than 1,000 new cases for the 16th straight day, the rate of positive tests among total tests administered has climbed to its highest level since at least April.

    • FLORIDA COVID-19 POSITIVITY SURGES TO 10.3% VS. 7.4% DAY AGO
    • FLORIDA COVID-19 POSITIVITY AT HIGHEST SINCE AT LEAST APRIL

    It’s important to keep in mind the criticism Fla. Department of Health has faced over these numbers from a recently fired data scientist who claimed the state was deliberately making its positivity rate look lower than it actually was.

    As millions of Americans try to determine whether it’s safe enough to go out for a night on the town, one 40-year-old health care worker and 10 of her friends shared a cautionary tale after testing positive for COVID-19 after visiting a bar following 2 months of lockdown. Several staff at the bar also tested positive, according to her Facebook posts.

    * * *

    Update (1000ET): In keeping with the focus on Southwestern Asia this morning, Pakistan reported yet another batch of troubling coronavirus numbers, as India’s Muslim-majority neighbor and longtime rival has seen both cases and deaths climb as health authorities expand testing.

    After lifting COVID-19 measures, including a nationwide lockdown, back in May, the virus has come roaring back. Yesterday, officials reimposed emergency lockdown measures impacting 1 million Pakistanis in the most “high risk” areas, including Lahore and other densely populated cities.

    On Wednesday, Pakistan reported 5,839 new cases of coronavirus and 136 new deaths, bringing the death toll to roughly 3,100, breaking above the 3k mark.

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    In other news, Texas public officials just jumped 11% in 24 hours, marking what appears to be a 5th straight record jump.

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    As anxiety about the situation intensifies following a record jump in new COVID-19 cases reported Tuesday, GOP Gov. Greg Abbott on barred Texas cities from implementing any rules that would require face coverings, insisting that all mask wearing must be voluntary.

    Already, Florida, Texas and Arizona have reported record increases in new COVID-19 cases over the past week as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis insists that the state won’t approve another lockdown. Shortly after the Texas hospitalization figures hit, Fla. reported that new cases had once again risen faster than the 7-day average, suggesting that the outbreak is growing.

    • FLORIDA COVID-19 CASES RISE 3.3% VS. PREVIOUS 7-DAY AVG. 2.8%

    No sooner did the Texas headline hit the tape than stocks tanked, adding to the day’s losses as early gains were completely reversed.

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    It’s not just hospitalizations that have been rising. New cases and deaths have climbed, too, though deaths have notably lagged. Yesterday, Texas reported almost twice as many new deaths from the novel coronavirus compared to New York on Tuesday, as the former state sees an ongoing spike in cases and hospitalizations related to the respiratory syndrome.

    In Europe, a meatpacking plant in Germany was ordered to shut after hundreds of workers became infected by the coronavirus, adding to a string of slaughterhouse closures that have plagued Europe and the US.

    * * *

    Nuclear-armed neighbors China and India may be enmeshed in a deadly border dispute with potentially serious ramifications for the global community, both countries are struggling with an alarming resurgence of COVID-19 cases, according to media reports.

    Yesterday, Chinese officials ratcheted up restrictions in Beijing as nearly 150 new coronavirus cases have been identified in the city over the past week. More residential compounds were placed under ‘partial lockdown’ conditions on Tuesday. Beijing has already tested more than 350k people since Saturday, with a goal of testing a large chunk of the city’s population of ~20 million people.

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    According to Al Jazeera English, one of the few English-language news organizations with reporters still on the ground in Beijing, many locals were taken by surprise as the local government raised the emergency alert level to ‘II’, closed schools and markets and began imposing movement restrictions, particularly on those who live in “high risk” areas (ie areas near the Xinfadi wholesale food market where officials believe the outbreak originated).

    Some Beijingers didn’t realize that their residential community had been placed on ‘partial lockdown’ with nobody allowed in or out until all residents have been tested. AJ says there are currently at least 27 communities under these conditions.

    Nelson Quan had no idea he had been locked into his compound in the Yuquan district of Beijing until he arrived at the front gate and saw the barricade.

    Four days earlier, on June 11, Beijing had reported its first COVID-19 case in almost two months. Now, Quan’s community and at least 27 others are forced to stay at home while they await the results of their nucleic acid virus tests. No one is allowed in, or out.

    “Two months of things loosening up, and life feeling like it’s going to be normal, and all of a sudden we’re back to where we were in February,” Quan said in a phone call.

    As Beijing cut off transportation including bus and rail service, and 70% of flights were cancelled. We reported last night that China had confirmed 44 total new cases yesterday, with 11 of them imported, according to public health officials. That’s a total of 1,255 flights.

    One official said Wednesday that Beijing cannot rule out the possibility that the number of cases in the city will stay at current levels for some time. Pang Xinghuo, a senior official for the Beijing disease control authority, said the epidemic has continued to accelerate in the city. On a lighter note, Chinese and Norwegian authorities have confirmed that Norwegian salmon was likely not the source of the novel coronavirus that was discovered on cutting boards in the Xinfadi market, the purported ‘epicenter’ of the Beijing outbreak, which has reportedly now spread to several surrounding provinces, while the city of Guangzhou struggles with an outbreak of its own.

    More than 1,250 flights that were scheduled to depart from Beijing on Tuesday were cancelled, some 70% of the total scheduled flights, according to media reports.

    Even more dire numbers were reported out of India on Wednesday, which registered 2,000 deaths in a day for the first time, a record-breaking total that took the Indian death toll to 11,903. Meanwhile, the number of confirmed infections surged over 354,000, as Mumbai and Delhi feel the brunt of the outbreak.

    One analyst shared several charts illustrating how the latest outbreaks in China are “textbook” examples of a ‘second wave’ pattern.

    Globally, the outbreak has surpassed the 8.1 million case mark, while deaths neared 444,000, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The US has the most cases and deaths, followed by Brazil.


    Finally, the WHO has welcomed news that dexamethasone, a cheap and widely available and steroid, has helped save the lives of people with severe COVID-19. 
One rep described it as “great news.”

  • Prof Says University "Inclusion & Diversity" Efforts Are A "Smokescreen" That Harms Black Students
    Prof Says University “Inclusion & Diversity” Efforts Are A “Smokescreen” That Harms Black Students

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 19:45

    Authored by Lacey Kestecher via Campus Reform,

    Amid nationwide calls for more diversity initiatives at universities, one professor argues that these types of programs fail to address the real issues and ultimately harm minority students. 

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    In a recent interview, Henry Louis Taylor Jr., professor of urban and regional planning at the University of Buffalo, said the focus on “inclusion and diversity” on college campuses has been an excuse to avoid any actual confrontation of race issues. Taylor says that the primary issue of the century is race, and argues that society needs to bring more attention to how different organizations handle issues of race and racism.

    He says this should be done by bringing these topics to the forefront.

    According to Taylor, universities have “replaced conversations around race with conversations around inclusion and diversity, which shifts the conversation and issue away so that we don’t have to deal with all of those complex issues that are related to grappling and dealing with race.” 

    Taylor claims that the move toward “inclusion and diversity” at universities “has been nothing more than a smokescreen to marginalize the discussions of race and, in particular, the issues facing African Americans.”

    “There are these predominantly white science departments and medical centers that years later still have no or very few black folks or Puerto Ricans,” said Taylor. “And this is one of the reasons the anger is so deep.” Taylor states that as a result of the current situations, people are having their voices be heard by bodies of government. The spread of the coronavirus and the recent protests have us “caught in this kind of purgatory” by showing all “people across the racial divide…the commonalities of pain and misery.”

    According to the professor, the coronavirus crisis created the perfect storm for the types of change he believes is necessary. 

    “COVID-19 has snatched the mask off of America the beautiful, and revealed disfigurement as a characteristic of this country,” said Taylor.

    “It’s created a common experience of people across the racial divide that allowed them to see the commonalities of pain and misery.

    “So we won’t go back to the old world. We have a vision, that’s what they’re talking about — saying that enough is enough,” he explained

    Taylor told Campus Reform that certain university diversity efforts have increased enrollment of international students on college campuses, there has been an unnoticed decrease of black students. 

    “The inclusion and diversity framework, in practice, pushed issues concerning black and brown people to the margin as they became increasingly abstract.  In some places, people were even calling for ideological diversity,” Taylor told Campus Reform.

    Taylor added that college campuses’ diversity efforts actually harm the very people they are meant to aid, saying that “the rise of international students made it easier to hide the disappearance of Blacks on college campuses, along with Latinxs.”

    “Of course, I support and celebrate international students, but administrators used them to make the campus appear diverse, while black and brown people disappeared,” said Taylor. 

    “I belong to the inclusion and diversity committees at the university and school levels, and those groups rarely mention race and never champion the cause of African Americans. In this space, all groups are juxtaposed, and no group is viewed as disproportionately treated, nor do the issues of power occur under this banner,” explained Taylor. 

    The hard reality is inclusion and diversity had made discussions of racism and anti-racism harder.  For these reasons, I advocate recentering race and anti-racism in our conversations and replace inclusion and diversity committees with racial equity committees.”

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Today’s News 17th June 2020

  • Norway Abandons COVID-Tracking App Over Privacy Fears
    Norway Abandons COVID-Tracking App Over Privacy Fears

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 02:45

    Norway’s health authorities suspended the use of its COVID-19 tracing app and deleted all location data collected amid new privacy criticism from the Norwegian Data Protection Authority (DPA), reported The Local

    The Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH) launched the smartphone app Smittestopp (“infection stop”) in April was used to collect location data of COVID-19 carriers. 

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    The country’s data privacy watchdog raised several red flags with the app on Friday, indicating that it’s too “invasive” now that COVID-19 infection and death rates have slowed. 

    “Smittestopp is a very invasive measure, even in an exceptional situation where society is trying to fight a pandemic,” DPA said in a statement. “The legality of Smittestopp depends on the social benefits.”

    The NIPH responded to DPA’s criticism of the app and said:

     “We don’t agree with the DPA’s evaluation, but feel it is necessary to delete all data and put work on hold as a result of this. 

    “We will as a result weaken an important part of our preparedness against a spread in infection, as we now lose time for development and testing of the app,” NIPH said in a statement. 

    Norway has mostly avoided the pandemic versus other countries in Europe. The country has only seen 8,639 confirmed cases with 242 deaths. At the moment, there are only 16 people hospitalized with the virus, with just 4 in intensive care.

    COVID-19 Cases In Europe

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    COVID-19 Deaths in Europe

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    Smittestopp uses Bluetooth and GPS to track and detect users when they are near a COVID-19 carrier. The app was downloaded 1.6 million times, but active users have dropped to about 600,000 since confirmed cases continued to decline. 

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    DPA questioned the effectiveness behind Smittestopp, considering its low participation. NIPH said the pandemic is not over, and suspending the app’s usage could undermine the country’s effort to combat the spread. 

    Tracing apps have been controversial in Europe and elsewhere around the world — many have alleged these government-sponsored tracking apps infringe on people’s rights by collecting location data. 

    Earlier this month, the US government and law enforcement agencies used tracing apps and big tech to identify rioters

    The latest countries to implement tracing apps have been Singapore and Australia

    The war on COVID around the world has ushered in a massive surveillance state with tech weaponry that governments can deploy at any time: thermal imaging camerasdrones, contact tracing, biometric databases, etc.

    No one is safe from the government in a post-corona world — they’re watching everyone’s move. But in Norway — the tracing app has been turned off – however, with threats of a second virus wave “has arrived” — it’s only a matter of time before the app is turned back on. 

  • The Miracle Of Salisbury: The BBC's Enters 'Propaganda Hall Of Fame' With Skripals Story
    The Miracle Of Salisbury: The BBC’s Enters ‘Propaganda Hall Of Fame’ With Skripals Story

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 02:00

    Authored Craig Murray,

    It turns out that the BBC really does believe that God is an Englishman. When the simple impossibility of the official story on the Skripals finally overwhelmed the dramatists, they resorted to Divine Intervention for an explanation – as propagandists have done for millennia.

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    This particular piece of script from Episode 2 of The Salisbury Poisonings deserves an induction in the Propaganda Hall of Fame:

    Porton Down Man: I’ve got the reports from the Bailey house

    Public Health Woman: Tell me, how many hits?

    Porton Down Man: It was found in almost every room of the house. Kitchen, bathroom, living room, bedrooms. It was even on the light switches. We found it in the family car too. But his wife and children haven’t been affected. I like to think of myself as a man of science, but the only word for that is a miracle.

    Well, it certainly would be a miracle that the family lived for a week in the house without touching a light switch. But miracle is not really the “only word for that”. Nonsense is a good word. Bullshit is a ruder version. Lie is entirely appropriate in these circumstances.

    Because that was not the only miracle on display.

    We were told specifically that the Skripals had trailed novichok all over Zizzis and the Bishops Mill pub, leaving multiple deadly deposits, dozens of them in total, which miraculously nobody had touched.

    We were told that Detective Bailey was found to have left multiple deadly deposits of novichok on everything he touched in a busy police station, but over several days before it was closed down nobody had touched any of them, which must be an even bigger miracle than the Baileys’ home.

    Perhaps even more amazingly, as the Skripals spread novichok all over the restaurant and the pub, nobody who served them had been harmed, nobody who took their payment. The man who went through Sergei’s wallet to learn his identity from his credit cards was not poisoned. The people giving first aid were not poisoned. The ducks Sergei fed were not poisoned. The little boy he fed the ducks with was not poisoned. So many miracles. If God were not an Englishman, Salisbury would have been in real trouble, evidently.

    The conclusion of episode two showed Charlie Rowley fishing out the perfume bottle from the charity bin at least two months in the timeline before this really happened, thus neatly sidestepping one of the most glaring impossibilities in the entire official story. I think we can forgive the BBC that lie – there are only so many instances of divine intervention in the story the public can be expected to buy in one episode.

    It is fascinating to see that the construction of this edifice of lies was a joint venture between the BBC and the security services’ house journal, the Guardian. Not only is all round pro-war propagandist “Colonel” Hamish De Bretton Gordon credited as Military Advisor, but Guardian journalists Caroline Bannock and Steven Morris are credited as Script Consultants, which I presume means they fed in the raw lies for the scriptwriters to shape into miracles.

    Now here is an interesting ethical point for readers of the Guardian. The Guardian published in the last fortnight two articles by Morris and Bannock that purported to be reporting on the production of the drama and its authenticity, without revealing to the readers that these full time Guardian journalists were in fact a part of the BBC project. That is unethical and unprofessional in a number of quite startling ways. But then it is the Guardian.

    [Full disclosure. I shared a flat with Caroline at university. She was an honest person in those days.]

    Again, rather than pepper this article with links, I urge you to read this comprehensive article, which contains plenty of links and remains entirely unanswered.

    *  *  *

    Unlike the Integrity Initiative, the 77th Brigade, Bellingcat, the Atlantic Council and hundreds of other warmongering propaganda operations, Craig’s blog has no source of state, corporate or institutional finance whatsoever. It runs entirely on voluntary subscriptions from its readers – many of whom do not necessarily agree with the every article, but welcome the alternative voice, insider information and debate. Subscriptions to keep Craig’s blog going are gratefully received.

  • The Enemy Within: A Story Of The Purge Of American Intelligence
    The Enemy Within: A Story Of The Purge Of American Intelligence

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/17/2020 – 00:05

    Authored by Cynthia Chung via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    “Western Europe has only 20 to 30 more years of democracy left in it; after that it will slide, engineless and rudderless, under the surrounding sea of dictatorship, and whether the dictation comes from a politburo or a junta will not make that much difference.”

    – Willy Brandt (German Federal Chancellor, right before he stepped down in 1974)

    Believe it or not, but the dystopic view that democracy is dead is by no measure a new idea. However, what might disturb you is where this design, in its contemporary form, really germinated from.

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    The idea that democracy is in a crisis and needs to be replaced with a new form of “governance” did not originate from the outcries of an oppressed people demanding their rights to a decent life. We are not presently seeing an organic, grassroots process in reforming how government, that is, democracy will be “improved” upon. Rather, what we are seeing is a controlled disintegration of the very thing we think we are trying to uphold, and this destruction has been in the works for over 45 years.

    It is no coincidence that Samuel P. Huntington is very fond of the Willy Brandt quote “prophesising” the end of democracy (which was used at the beginning of both his books ‘The Crisis of Democracy’ and ‘Disaffected Democracies’), that is after all his purpose in life…to see to it that that prophecy comes true.

    In this paper I will go through how the Henry Kissinger crew successfully purged the last significant remnants of decency within the CIA and reshaped the government structure into the Deep State that we see it grotesquely throbbing as today.

    In this story, we will see how those prominent figureheads who prophesise the “end of democracy” have been the very orchestrators of its destruction.

    The First Purge of American Intelligence: The Dismantling of the OSS

    On March 4th 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt would be elected President of the United States, which would become a twelve year presidency, ending only due to his passing away. Roosevelt was an anti-imperialist who actively, and successfully, organised towards abolishing imperialism throughout the world.

    The Office of Strategic Services (OSS) was established by Roosevelt on June 13th 1942, under the direction of William J. Donovan, as a wartime intelligence agency. Its purpose was to collect and analyze strategic information required by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and to conduct special operations not assigned to other agencies.

    Contrary to how we think of American foreign intelligence today, the raison d’être of the OSS was to genuinely win the war (WWII) quickly and with the least amount of loss.

    However, FDR would pass away on April 12th 1945, and the OSS would be dismantled a mere five months after FDR’s passing and two weeks after the official end of WWII.

    On Sept 20th 1945, Truman infamously ordered the shutdown of the OSS, referring to it as a potential Gestapo , however, not with the intention to disband all foreign intelligence capabilities. The OSS would be replaced under the new banner of CIA, on Sept 18th 1947, and more importantly as a contingent to the National Security Council which was created on the same day. Refer to my paper on this.

    Many respectable and patriotic intelligence officers of repute, who were loyal to FDR’s vision, were also thrown out of the intelligence community with the disbanding of the OSS.

    In August 1949, the Soviet Union tested its first atomic bomb, several years before the 1953 date forecast by the CIA. As a response, the Joint Intelligence Committee submitted an estimate of the nature of the nuclear threat from the Soviets. JIC-502 claimed that once the Soviets had 200 atomic bombs, they could launch a surprise attack and defeat the U.S.

    These assertions were made without analysis of Soviet capabilities to actually deliver the weapons, let alone produce them at that rate. The estimates did not even attempt to analyze Soviet strategic intentions.

    JIC-502, titled “Implications of Soviet Possession of Atomic Weapons” and drafted Jan 20th 1950, turned out not to be an intelligence report at all but rather a sales pitch, claiming that a nuclear-armed Soviet Union had introduced the notion that “a tremendous military advantage would be gained by the power that struck first and succeeded in carrying through an effective surprise attack.”

    It was JIC-502 which would be the first to put forward a justification for the preventive first strike concept, supported by a massive military buildup under the pretence of pre-emptive war.

    NSC-68 would be drafted the same year, declaring that the U.S. was in the moral equivalent of war with the Soviet Union and called for a massive military buildup to be completed by 1954 dubbed the “year of maximum danger”, the year JIC-502 claimed the Soviets would achieve military superiority and be able to launch war against the U.S. This proposed military buildup would increase the defense budget from $10 billion to $40 billion from 1950-53.

    During this same period another security doctrine was drafted, titled “NSC-75: A Report to the NSC by the Executive Secretary on British Military Commitments”. The report concluded that if the British Empire collapsed, and Britain could no longer carry out these deployments, in defending the “free world” against the Soviets, the U.S. would not be able to carry out its current foreign policy, including NSC-68.

    It was thus concluded in the report that it would be more cost-effective to aid Britain in saving its Empire!

    If you were ever wondering why the CIA was constantly found paired with British Intelligence, starting from its very inception, in a series of coups in countries they had no reason to be in, now you know why.

    The U.S. had gone from an explicit mission to end imperialism worldwide under Roosevelt, to actively supporting and upholding British colonies and vassal states under Truman!

    This was all done under the pretence of protecting the “free world” from the evil boogeymen Soviets, whom Churchill decided to be labelled such in his Iron Curtain Speech. And thus, the interests of the British Empire were safeguarded by an abiding American stooge, as long as the narrative that all Russians were villains was believed.

    Interestingly, the CIA was not on board with the pre-emptive war strategy, as defined by JIC-502. In February 1950 the CIA responded in ORE 91-49, stating:

    “It is always possible…that the USSR would initiate a war if it should estimate that a Western attack was impending. [However], It is not yet possible to estimate with any precision the effects of Soviet possession of the Atomic Bomb upon the probability of war. The implications of atomic warfare, either militarily or psychologically, have not yet been fully appraised.” (emphasis added)

    In other words, the CIA was stating that JIC-502’s frantic lunacy in demanding a military buildup and first strike capability against the Soviets was groundless. That there was no data to support such a claim, and thus such a response would be a reckless and dangerous one.

    It became evident to those who wished to push through these permanent war policies that the CIA was going to need “stronger” leadership.

    At least, this was the argument made by the Dulles-Jackson-Correa Report which called for a strong CIA Director in the wake of the Cold War. Though Walter Bedell Smith, who would become CIA Director from 1950-53, did much to reorganise the CIA away from the pre-emptive war mongering, it was ultimately Allen Dulles who would take the CIA throne.

    It should not come as a surprise that Dulles had himself in mind the whole time when he was talking about the stuff that was needed for a “strong” CIA Director… however, he was not referring to a strong mind, but rather a strong stomach.

    Dulles would act as Director of the CIA from 1953-61, until he was fired by President Kennedy (along with the Deputy Director and Deputy Director for Plans), all three were caught essentially committing treason during the Bay of Pigs fiasco, refer to my paper on this.

    McCone would replace Dulles as CIA Director and would attempt to clear the CIA of its Dulles loyalists in the Bay of Pigs incident; unfortunately it would not be enough.

    During Dulles’ term as CIA Director, he did nothing less than entrench America’s role in exacting permanent warfare across the world against “communist insurgents”, with the never-ending Indochina wars lasting for over 35 years.

    Though Bedell Smith would only be CIA Director for three years, he would succeed, along with Donovan (founder of the OSS) to create the most strategically important departments within the CIA: the Office of National Estimates (ONE).

    Smith sought potential candidates for this new branch from those who had been thrown out of the intelligence community when Truman disbanded the OSS. Many of these “retired” intelligence officers had served in the OSS’ original Research and Analysis Branch; including William Langer and Sherman Kent who both played crucial roles in the running of ONE. Both Langer and Kent were reputable historians.

    It was recognised that there was a crisis in competent intelligence gathering and analysis that would in turn be used to shape reckless war mongering policies such as JIC-502, NSC-68 and NSC-75. As Kent would state, there were those in the CIA who were “seeking power through sacrificing the truth.”

    The formation of ONE was to be a major pushback on this type of groupthink within the intelligence community.

    Kent would comment on the issue of the agency’s security screening (McCarthyism was in full swing at the time) stating:

    “When an intelligence staff has been screened through [too finely], its members will be as alike as tiles on a bathroom floor – and about as capable of meaningful and original thought.”

    In summary, since the death of FDR there was a somewhat open battle between members of the intelligence community, which could be categorised as FDR loyalists vs Churchill loyalists (1). Although there was an attempt to expunge the most notable intelligence officers who remained anti-imperial, Bedell Smith was successful in bringing these men back in, under the reorganised department ONE, who would in turn be a form of sane leadership within the CIA.

    Unfortunately, the NSC did not share these views and there would be a second purge of the last remnants of true American patriots.

    The Second Purge of American Intelligence: The Deep State is Born

    From the moment Kissinger assumed the post of National Security Advisor to Nixon, he set out to centralize all intelligence estimates, diplomatic initiatives, and covert operations over figuratively and sometimes literal dead bodies of members of the CIA, Joint Chiefs of Staff, State Department and Congress.

    According to John Ranelagh in his book The Agency: The Rise and Decline of the CIA:

    “Very early in the Nixon administration, it became clear that the President wanted Henry Kissinger to run intelligence for him and that the NSC staff in the White House under Kissinger would control the intelligence community. This was the beginning of a shift of power away from the CIA to a new center: the growing NSC staff.”

    Kissinger would use the Watergate scandal, where the CIA was caught by Congress directly implicated in treasonous activities, as the impetus needed to form a new CIA, a secret branch away from the scrutiny of Congress.

    In 1978, Kissinger would launch the Intelligence Reorganization and Reform Act, which essentially worked to “clean house” of the intelligence community.

    In 1982, under the direction of Kissinger, President Reagan would sign NSDD 77 under Cold War duress, which would launch Project Democracy, a sardonic name for a Trojan Horse.

    NSDD 77 allowed Project Democracy the reins over “covert action on a broad scale” as well as overt public actions later to be associated with the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). The directive ordered the CIA to stay out of both the overt and covert part of Project Democracy, thus giving free reign to the Kissingerian “NSC apparatus”.

    Almost one year later, the uninformed and naïve Congress passed the NED Act in Oct 1983, and effectively signed off on wrapping duct tape around their heads.

    The structure of the NED essentially functions as a private CIA political operations arm of an invisible, secret government beyond accountability and beyond the reach of the law.

    Those who still had a degree of humanity as members of the intelligence community, and had survived the Kissinger purge, were simply kept in the dark about the cloak and dagger operations of the secret government branch.

    As for the department ONE, they would be disbanded in 1973 (the year Kissinger became Secretary of State) and replaced with a “group of experts” that would later form the National Intelligence Council in 1979. This would be the last purge of sane patriotic leadership within the intelligence community, left to the hyenas and jackals to run from thenceforth.

    In a 1991 interview, then NED President David Ignatius arrogantly stated “a lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA…The biggest difference is that when such activities are done overtly, the flap potential is close to zero. Openness is its own protection”.

    The Real “Crisis of Democracy”

    The Trilateral Commission was founded in the wake of Watergate and oil crisis of 1973. It was formed under the pretence of addressing the “crisis of democracy” and calling for a reshaping of political systems in order to form a more “stable” international order and “cooperative” relations among regions.

    Its formation would be organised by Britain’s hand in America, the Council on Foreign Relations, (aka: the offspring of the Royal Institute for International Affairs, the leading think tank for the British Crown).

    Project Democracy would originate out of a Trilateral Commission meeting on May 31st, 1975 in Kyoto Japan, where the Trilateral Commission’s “Task Force on the Governability of Democracies” findings were delivered. The project was overseen by Trilateral Commission Director Zbigniew Brzezinski and its members James Schlesinger (former CIA Director) and Samuel P. Huntington.

    It would mark the beginning of the end, introducing the policy, or more aptly “ideology”, for the need to instigate a “controlled disintegration of society.”

    The Trilateral Commission is a non-governmental body, its members include elected and non-elected officials scattered throughout the world, ironically coming together to discuss how to address the “crisis of democracy” in the most undemocratic process possible. It is an organisation meant to uphold the “interests” of its members, regardless of who the people voted in.

    You see, by the 1970s democracy was obviously broken, and someone had to put things back in order, right?

    This elite grouping of people decided that this approach would be the best for all democracies and just like that, it was brought into official policy across the western hemisphere.

    On Nov 9th, 1978, Trilateral Commission member Paul Volcker (Federal Reserve Chairman from 1979-1987) would affirm at a lecture delivered at Warwick University in England: “A controlled disintegration in the world economy is a legitimate object for the 1980s.” This is also the ideology that has shaped Milton Friedman’s “Shock Therapy”.

    By the time of Jimmy Carter’s Administration, the majority of the government was being run by members of the Trilateral Commission. But who runs the Trilateral Commission?

    Well, keeping in mind that this whole operation is run as an “open conspiracy”, in May 1981, Henry Kissinger who replaced Brzezinski as the head of the Trilateral Commission gave a speech at Chatham House describing his term as Secretary of State:

    “[The British] became a participant in internal American deliberations, to a degree probably never practiced between sovereign nations…In my White House incarnation then, I kept the British Foreign Office better informed and more closely engaged than I did the American Department…It was symptomatic.” (emphasis added).

    In his speech, Kissinger outlined the conflicting ideologies between Churchill and Roosevelt, and concluded with his support for the British worldview as the more superior of the two.

    Looks like the Churchill loyalists have won.

    Controlled Disintegration: And We All Fall Down

    In 1975 the CFR launched a public study of global policy titled the 1980’s Project. The general theme was “controlled disintegration” of the world economy, and the report did not attempt to hide the famine, social chaos, and death its policy would bring upon most of the world’s population.

    The study explained that the world financial and economic system needed a complete overhaul according to which key sectors such as energy, credit allocation and food would be placed under the direction of a single global administration. The objective of this reorganization would be the replacement of nation states.

    However, before this could occur, nation states would have to falter, or at least give off the impression of faltering.

    The failure of the nation state is not a natural phenomenon but rather is the outcome of a fascist coup; involving a banker’s dictatorshipeconomic looting and permanent warfare (the Cold War never ended) to hinder national industrial growth.

    Among the most effective strategies towards this end has been color revolutions, which just so happens to be the NED’s specialty practice and has included, to name a few, the nations of Yugoslavia, Georgia, Iraq, Lebanon, Burma, Iran, Egypt, Yemen, Ukraine and the ongoing Hong Kong protests.

    Wherever this strategy has unfolded, the target state is told by the international community that it has no right to intervene and is told to stand by as its nation is ransacked by locusts and its government ‘reorganised’.

    With the final purge of American intelligence and the formation of a secret government, rendering anything resembling a democratic process obsolete, unless someone can restart the engine fast, we will soon be confronted by Willy Brandt’s prophecy of finding ourselves rudderless, under a surrounding sea of dictatorship.

  • Visualizing How People And Companies Feel About Working Remotely
    Visualizing How People And Companies Feel About Working Remotely

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 23:45

    According to the U.S. Census Bureau, nearly one-third of the U.S. workforce, and half of all “information workers”, are able to work from home. Though the number of people working partially or fully remote has been on the rise for years now, the COVID-19 pandemic may have pressed the fast-forward button on this trend.

    With millions of people taking part in this work-from-home experiment, Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley notes that it’s worth asking the question – how do people and companies actually feel about working from home?

    The Flex Life

    It’s no secret that people value freedom of choice. A whopping 98% of people would like to have the option to work remotely for the rest of their careers.

    Aside from working in sweatpants, what are the things people like about working from home?

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    A flexible schedule, the ability to work from any location, and no more commuting were the top reported benefits.

    Of course, not everything is positive about working from home. Here are some of the challenges people face as they work remotely.

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    The top issue faced by remote workers was “unplugging” from work. Without the clear-cut change of location and defined office hours, many people had a tougher time clearly dividing their personal and professional time.

    As well, the lack of person-to-person communication can be a challenge for some people. In fact, one-third of people were concerned that the full extent of their professional efforts wouldn’t be appreciated because of a lack of in-office contact.

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    For the majority of people, having tough conversations via phone or teleconferencing software was actually viewed as a positive development.

    Barriers to Implementing a Remote Work Policy

    Despite the popularity of remote and flexible working, not every company has embraced the concept. Here are some of the reasons why.

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    While there can be technical or security-related reasons behind remote work resistance, a major barrier is simple resistance to change. Over 50% of companies that didn’t have a flexible or remote workplace policy cited “longstanding company policy” as the reason. In other words, that is just the way things have always worked.

    Here are the reservations managers have with remote work:

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    Managers are worried that productivity and focus will be diminished if people are working in more informal locations, such as home or a cafe. Also, if people aren’t working in the same physical location, managers feel that team cohesiveness and company culture could suffer.

    On the flip side, the cost savings associated with remote work may win over many companies. Research has found that typical employer can save about $11,000 per year for every person who works remotely half of the time. As well, switching to virtual meets in some instances can also be a significant cost savings.

    Flexibility: The Ultimate Perk?

    Location flexibility isn’t just a way to keep current employees happy. Companies that don’t embrace flexible working may find themselves at a disadvantage when recruiting new talent. Nearly two-thirds of candidates say that having a choice of work location is a key consideration in choosing an employer.

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    Lockdown measures have highlighted the value of workplace flexibility – particularly for people with kids. A total of 86% of parents now want to work flexibly, compared to 46% pre-coronavirus.

    As the economy slowly begins to reopen, it remains to be seen whether or not COVID-19 accelerated inevitable trends in workplace culture. If so, taking Zoom calls in sweatpants may become the new normal for millions of workers.

  • Weaponization Of Food: Starvation To Manufacture Compliance
    Weaponization Of Food: Starvation To Manufacture Compliance

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 23:25

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    The elites are doing their best to cut the food supply chains in order to weaponized food.  At the end of the day, if they succeed, you will be trading your freedom for a small morsel of food.

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    The L.A. Times reported that “coronavirus outbreaks” at 60 food processing plants will be the cause of the supply chains breaking, and an inability to get food to store shelves. Prepare for a food shortage, as it looks like they will attempt to use hunger and food as a weapon in this game for your mind.

    It’s a grim reality that’s playing out across the country as COVID-19 spreads beyond the meat processing plants that have captured the national spotlight. At least 60 food-processing facilities outside the meatpacking industry have seen outbreaks, with more than 1,000 workers diagnosed with the virus, according to a new study from Environmental Working Group. –L.A. Times

    This is the horrible reality of participation in centralization and not being able to be self-reliant. The New World Order doesn’t care if you starve, it cares only that you bow down and consent to a life of enslavement. And they are weaponizing the food system and using COVID-19 as an excuse.

    The food shortages will come, and like the coronavirus panic, this has been manufactured by the elitists who want to control us. Is this what it’s going to take to get the rest of people to realize they’ve been controlled and enslaved by the very government who said they just want to keep them safe?

    Safety has always been the rallying cry of tyrants and that is no different now.  People all over the world are waking up to what the power-hungry elitists and politicians have done to us for decades, but many are still sleeping. Will it take these orchestrated food shortages to wake them up? Or will they continue down a path of slavery with no hope? –SHTFPlan

    Take the time to learn self-reliance right now and store some food.  It’s difficult to say when this will fully roll out, but it most definitely in their plans. Perhaps it’ll happen around the time of the faked “second wave” to really cause as much fear and panic as possible, which means expect it by this autumn.

    Obedience to the government won’t save you. Preparedness might.

    Farmers are coming out saying they have been told to “quit farming,” and are being forced to dump milk, kill chickens, and turn vegetable crops under. Why? Isn’t it obvious? To scare the public into accepting dependency on the government so they will remain in a constant state of fear and enslavement. But there’s a way out. If food shortages are coming, there is a way to prepare.

    Prepping For The Upcoming Government-Induced Food Shortages

  • New Zealand Ends COVID-Free Streak After Symptomatic Travelers Left Quarantine Early
    New Zealand Ends COVID-Free Streak After Symptomatic Travelers Left Quarantine Early

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 23:05

    It was on June 8 that New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern declared of the country “we are ready now” to return to normalcy after it became COVID-19 free.

    New Zealand has since gone eight days with no known cases and 24 days without new cases; however, that’s come to an end as on Tuesday two new infections were reported. 

    It’s sure to evoke controversy given that in this instance a pair of travelers were allowed to break quarantine early.

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    New Zealand countryside, via AP.

    Reuters reports, “It took just eight days for New Zealand to lose its COVID-free status when two women who had been given permission to leave quarantine early after arriving from abroad tested positive for the coronavirus, authorities said on Tuesday.”

    Previously the country’s leaders and health authorities touted they had become the first country to ‘effectively eliminate’ COVID-19 through stringent measures, including stay at home orders that were in effect by late March, locked-down borders, and a strict two week quarantine observance for anyone who had traveled outside the country.

    In the instance of the pair of new cases, quarantine was broken early, and aggressive testing measures have returned for local population areas they were in contact with. Reuters reports based on local authorities “the two women were given compassionate exemptions, as they were traveling from the U.K. to visit a dying parent in Wellington.” 

    Apparently one women even had symptoms and yet was still allowed to forego the full quarantine period:

    One of the women exhibited symptoms consistent with COVID-19 before being released early but attributed them to a pre-existing condition. When they returned to quarantine, they both tested positive.

    The prime minister vowed a full investigation as fresh controversy erupts over health authorities clearly dropping the ball in this case.

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    New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, via Time.

    “Vigorous testing is now taking place across those who were in the quarantine facility at the same time, and those who may have had any, even the remotest chance of contact (with the women),” Ardern said in a statement posted to social media.

    It’s unclear to what extent lockdown measures may return to parts of New Zealand, or if others have been infected while the pair were outside quarantine. In total New Zealand has had 1,156 confirmed cases, including 22 deaths. Geography has certainly helped the nation, along with the inbound quarantine measures for anyone who had been abroad.

    Recall too that during the early months of coronavirus spreading in the West, wealthy Americans attempted to get into New Zealand while they still could, often taking private jets to luxury ‘doomsday’ shelters in the South Pacific paradise prepped for just such a purpose. 

  • On Vote-By-Mail
    On Vote-By-Mail

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 22:45

    Authored by J.Christian Adamas via The Gatestone Institute,

    Never before in the history of the country has the election process system been under greater attack. In the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic, heavily funded organizations and lawyers with fat trust deposits have been seeking to undo how we elect the President, Congress and state officials.

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    Like the rioters in the streets of American cities, they are taking advantage of a crisis to try to fundamentally transform American institutions.

    They are seeking to throw out state laws designed to protect the integrity of American elections.

    The first target of the election transformation was Congress. Soon after the pandemic reached our shores, House Democrats passed emergency legislation that would have federalized election process rules.

    The Constitution decentralizes how we run elections because decentralization promotes individual liberty. When elections are decentralized, no single malevolent actor can manipulate or control the outcome.

    During both the Bush and Obama administrations, I worked in the Voting Section at the United States Department of Justice. I witnessed firsthand how federal bureaucrats could manipulate, coerce and threaten state officials who did not conform to the bureaucrat’s sensibilities about how elections should be run.

    Naturally the federal government has a role in ensuring that elections are conducted in a way that complies with federal laws and the Constitution. For example, the 15th Amendment and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 do not allow discrimination on the basis of race.

    But apart from these limited federal carve-outs, the Constitution vests states with the power to run their own elections and set the qualifications to vote.

    The bill that passed the House would have mandated automatic vote by mail in every state. It would have mandated same-day voter registration as well as weeks of early voting. It would have banished voter photo identification laws. It would have legalized vote harvesting in every state. Other proposals in Congress would have allowed mail ballots to be counted even if they were not postmarked by election day.

    What the bills would actually do is foment chaos. The election would not be decided on election day. Millions of mail ballots would keep appearing, keep rolling in, until there were enough votes to make the difference. If there was a dispute, lawyers would steal the show, subjecting America to weeks of post-election court contests to force a particular outcome.

    Making all of this even worse are the hundreds of millions of dollars that leftist foundations dedicate to this process fight. There is money for media outlets to publish stories that voter fraud is a myth. They even lend struggling newspapers foundation-funded “reporters” to work for free, as long as they publish stories saying voter fraud is a myth.

    Of course, there is money for lawyers. When the House election transformation bill failed in the Senate– largely thanks to Majority Leader McConnell and Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby (R-AL) — those trying to transform the elections rushed to the courts. The bill would have nationalized vote by mail, banned voter ID, and mandated that every state offer a month of early voting and allow same-day registration.

    Across the country there are dozens of lawsuits trying to force states to abandon state election integrity procedures. My organization has been involved in a number of them, and it is quite an eye-opener. In Virginia, for example, the League of Women Voters sued the state to force the end of the witness requirement on absentee ballots. They argued that finding a witness would be a violation of federal voting rights.

    Unbelievably, Virginia Attorney General Mark Herring capitulated and surrendered. The purported adversaries decided to enter into a collusive consent decree, tossing out the law.

    Remember, the duly elected legislature of Virginia — both the House and Senate — passed a witness requirement and an elected governor signed the bill. The agreement between the plaintiffs and defendants in the case of League of Women Voters of Virginia vs. Virginia State Board of Elections erased the democratic will of the people of Virginia manifested in law.

    This story is repeating itself all over the United States. Lawsuit after lawsuit is being filed to cancel state election integrity laws. One case in Texas actually claims the stamp you put on your absentee ballot is the same as a Jim Crow era poll tax.

    All of this diminishes the real fight for civil rights that occurred a half century ago.

    Lawyers are trying to accomplish in courts what could not be accomplished in Congress. Judges are being used as substitutes for the will of the people. People who seemingly would like to be able to manipulate election results are forum-shopping for the most sympathetic courts. And in some places, the plaintiffs and defendants are in agreement that state election laws should be struck down without contested litigation. The case is filed, and the states surrender.

    When I attended law school, this is not what they taught. Laws, at least we were told, represented the will of the people. They were to be respected. Lawyers, particularly lawyers for a state attorney general, are under an ethical obligation to defend a law, even if they did not agree with it.

    Yet in one hearing I attended in the Virginia litigation, the federal judge asked the Virginia Attorney General if they ever intended to file any pleading in court to contest the case. The lawyer hemmed and hawed. The answer should have been yes. Instead it was a successful attempt to obscure the answer.

    Virginia’s only response was a white flag.

    So now the same people who support the lawsuits around the country are still trying to move elections to an all-mail election. This would put the fate of the election into the hands of the same people who regularly deliver to you and your neighbor’s mail.

    Vote by mail might sound good, until you look at the data. The federal election assistance commission keeps tabs. Their data show that 28 million ballots mailed since 2012 simply vanished. They were sent out, but never came back and were counted. Some say they are in landfills, others figure they are in file cabinets. The truth is, we do not know. All we know is that the mail ballots never accomplished what they were intended to accomplish.

    It gets worse. Hundreds of thousands came back but had defects that prevented them from being counted. The voters who sent these ballots probably do not even know that their ballot was not counted after they sent it back.

    Mail voting also destroys the transparency of our elections. Observers from each side are unable to watch the process. Mail ballots are uniquely vulnerable to fraud because they are voted behind closed doors where third parties regularly attempt to influence the process. Senior citizens already enjoy rights to request an absentee ballot in every state.

    It surprises people to learn that in the middle of an Ebola epidemic in 2014, Liberia conducted an in-person national election. Ebola had a fatality rate of 46%, yet people still came into polling places and voted in person. The solutions were simple — sanitization protocols, distancing, disinfectant on surfaces.

    Putting the Presidency into the hands of the United States Postal Service would be a serious mistake. Some factions, however, do not care about mistakes. They care more about transforming an election system so they can transform a nation.

    *  *  *

    J. Christian Adams is President of the Public Interest Legal Foundation, at 501(c)(3) law firm devoted entirely to election integrity. He served on President Trump’s election integrity advisory commission and in the Voting Section at the United States Department of Justice.

  • Nuclear Warhead Reductions Continue Despite Global Tensions
    Nuclear Warhead Reductions Continue Despite Global Tensions

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 22:25

    The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has released new data showing that the collective number of nuclear warheads has fallen slightly from 13,865 in early 2019 to 13,400 in January 2020. That decrease, as Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, has occurred at a time of heightened global tension and SIPRI reported that the nine states possessing nuclear warheads are actively modernizing their stockpiles. For example, China is developing a triad involving land, sea and aerial delivery systems, Russia is pursuing the development of hypersonic weapons and both India and Pakistan are slowly increasing the size and diversity of their nuclear forces.

    Infographic: Nuclear Warhead Reductions Continue Despite Global Tensions | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    Russia and the U.S. possess more than 90 percent of the world’s nuclear warheads and the recent decline in the global inventory can be attributed to the retirement and dismantlement of weapons in both countries. That is primarily due to the 2010 New START Treaty which is set to expire early next year unless both parties agree to extend it. Negotiations have made no progress, primarily due to the U.S. government insisting China joins any future arms reduction agreement, a move Beijing has ruled out.

    In January of 2020, Russia had 6,375 nuclear warheads with 1,570 operationally deployed with the total number falling by 125 compared with early 2019. The U.S. has 385 fewer weapons than last year and it currently has around 5,800 in total with 1,750 deployed operationally. China has the third-highest number with 320, a figure that grew by 30 over the past 12 months. France and the UK round off the top five with 290 and 215 nuclear weapons, respectively.

  • CHAZ Occupier Suggests "Rounding Up All The White People" Into Work Brigades
    CHAZ Occupier Suggests “Rounding Up All The White People” Into Work Brigades

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 22:05

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    A post that appeared on the subreddit for the Seattle ‘CHAZ’ autonomous zone that has been taken over by left-wing extremists suggests rounding up all the white people and organizing them into forced work brigades.

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    That’s right. Some of the very same people protesting against racism and slavery want to enslave people based on their skin color.

    So progressive!

    The discussion appears to be focused around identifying potential ‘white supremacists’ who are trying to infiltrate CHAZ, a 6 block area of downtown Seattle occupied by Antifa and BLM supporters after the police force fled their precinct.

    The area now seems to have been renamed ‘CHOP’ after some of the occupiers wanted to send a message to anyone who resisted that their fate would resemble what happened during the French Revolution when adversaries were beheaded.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    “I can help keep a lookout for them, how do they look like?” asks one CHAZ occupier. “What are the signs to identify them? I would think going up to ask them is dangerous.”

    “Anyone that is white,” says a respondent.

    “I genuinely don’t understand why we don’t just round up all the white people in CHAZ and put them to work tending the crops, and other such tasks,” responds another CHAZ militant.

    “Thing would be far more efficient with a large workforce and it would act as a way of keeping the white menace under control. We can have an armed supervisor to watch over them as they work so there’s no risk of any racist backlash.”

    Stalin would have been proud!

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    It was previously revealed that BLM occupiers were demanding white people each hand over $10 to their CHAZ comrades as a form of reparations.

    As we highlight in the video below, CHAZ has quickly descended into the chaos and violent anarchy we all fully expected, although the media still ludicrously describes it as peaceful and friendly.

    *  *  *

    My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  • Scientists Discover "Mirror Image" Of Sun & Earth In Deep Space
    Scientists Discover “Mirror Image” Of Sun & Earth In Deep Space

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 21:45

    Western researchers have discovered a mysterious exoplanet less than twice the size of Earth orbiting around a distant Sun-like star that could support life, making it the closest analog to the Earth-Sun system.

    The discovery of the exoplanet KOI-456.04 orbiting the star Kepler-160 — was made by researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS) in Germany and the US. The findings were published in Astronomy & Astrophysics, under the title “Transit least-squares survey III. A 1.9 R⊕ transit candidate in the habitable zone of Kepler-160…:” 

    “The star Kepler-160 is probably orbited by a planet less than twice the size of the Earth with a star-planet distance that could permit planetary surface temperatures conducive to life. The newly discovered exoplanet, which was found by a team of scientists led by the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS) in Göttingen, is more than just another potentially habitable world.

    One of the key properties making it resemble the Sun-Earth system more than any other previously known world, is its Sun-like host star. Most of the Earth-like exoplanets known so far are in orbit around a faint red dwarf star emitting their energy mostly as infrared radiation rather than as visible light.

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    Most of the exoplanets from the Kepler mission are the size of Neptune and in relatively close orbits around their host stars, where temperatures on these planets would be far too hot for liquid surface water (third panel from above). Almost all of the Earth-sized planets known to have potentially Earth-like surface temperatures are in orbit around red dwarf stars, which do not emit visible light but infrared radiation instead (bottom panel).The Earth is in the right distance from the Sun to have surface temperatures required for the existence of liquid water. The newly discovered planet candidate KOI-456.04 and its star Kepler-160 (second panel from above) have great similarities to Earth and Sun (top panel). h/t MPS

    The light shed on KOI-456.04 by its Sun-like host star, however, is very much like the daylight seen on our home planet. Moreover, the orbital period of KOI-456.04 around its Sun-like star is almost identical to an Earth year,” read a statement from MPS. 

    What makes the KOI-456.04 discovery really interesting is that the plant is orbiting the star Kepler-160 at a comparable distance as Earth’s from the Sun — suggesting life could exist. This is a mirror image and the most similar to the Earth-Sun system of any exoplanetary system discovered so far. 

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     The green shaded area denotes the habitable zone… h/t MPS 

    The exoplanet is three thousand light-years from Earth and has yet to be officially confirmed — MPS said the probability of it being a real planet is 85%. 

    “It cannot currently be ruled out completely that KOI-456.04 is, in fact, a statistical fluke or a systematic measurement error instead of a genuine planet. The team estimates the chances of a planetary nature of KOI-456.04 to be about 85% pro planet,” MPS said.

    While KOI-456.01 is still considered a planetary candidate, the probabilities are high, according to the research, that this is the real deal. 

    As for other Earth-like planets, we noted earlier this year that NASA exoplanet astronomers detected bio-signatures of a planet that could support habitable conditions to potentially promote life.

    Instead of Mars, Elon Musk has to think outside of this solar system if he wants to continue wowing investors. 

  • Ron Paul: Is The "Second Wave" Another COVID-19 Hoax?
    Ron Paul: Is The “Second Wave” Another COVID-19 Hoax?

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 21:25

    Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

    Just a week or so ago the mainstream media and thousands representing the “medical community” told us we must throw out the “stay-at-home” orders and go to the streets to protest the death of George Floyd at the hands of the police. The Covid-19 virus will not bother people who are protesting this injustice, they said. The virus only attacks people leaving their homes to protest the stay-at-home orders.

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    Now, after thousands of businesses – many of them black-owned – have been reduced to rubble and innocent people in the inner cities no longer have anywhere to shop for the basic necessities of life, the mainstream media has backed off of its non-stop coverage of the protests. Suddenly last week they all simultaneously embraced a new fear story to terrify the masses: a “second wave” of coronavirus was among us. It was targeting those states that dared to “open up” their economies and begin a return to relatively normal lives.

    Texas, Florida, and California were singled out to scare the rest of the country into thinking that if you dare leave your homes you will catch coronavirus and die. There was a “spike” in coronavirus “cases” they claimed. Funny, just a month or so ago they were demanding that we massively increase testing, which would produce just that “spike” in coronavirus cases they are now using to scare authorities into reinstating the incredibly destructive stay-at-home orders.

    In the county here in Texas that includes Houston, the young judge who somehow seized the power to shut down the third largest city in the United States warns us that she may again shut down Fort Bend County to fight this “second wave” of cases. She even threatened to again pour millions of dollars into a “field hospital” at a Houston football stadium that did not see a single patient in the “first wave” of coronavirus. It’s hard not to wonder which politically-connected companies are reaping millions in contracts for an obviously un-needed hospital. Thousands of hospital beds in Houston are vacant, while cancer patients have been refused their screenings and desperately needed treatments.

    As former Congressman David Stockman points out, the actual coronavirus numbers do not in any way support the media assertion that a “second wave” of infection is cresting over Texas. Stockman informs us that in Texas the “reported infected case rate of 256 per 100,000 is just 10 percent  of the real ‘hot spot’ rate of 2,477 per 100,000 in the five boroughs of New York City; and its mortality rate of 6.2 per 100,000 population is just 3 percent of New York City’s 196 per 100,000 rate.”

    There are no “hot spots” in Texas. It’s just more media hype.

    It’s funny that they don’t dare mention Georgia, which has also opened its economy and has seen no “spike” at all.

    The same people who were demanding more testing are now screaming that we must shut the economy down again because these tests – which are notoriously unreliable – are showing more coronavirus cases. This is a disease that 99.9 percent of the people who are infected with survive! But 40 million people out of work and the thousands of lives that will end due to the shutdown are never mentioned.

    There is something else going on here and it is in no way related to public health.

  • Beijing Raises Emergency Alert Level As Lockdown Expands, Residential Compounds Sealed Off: Live Updates
    Beijing Raises Emergency Alert Level As Lockdown Expands, Residential Compounds Sealed Off: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 21:07

    Summary:

    • Beijing expands ‘partial lockdown’ to all residential compounds
    • China reports latest COVID numbers; 44 in total, 31 in Beijing
    • Brazil reports another record jump in new cases as total tops 900k
    • California reports another DoD decline in new cases
    • Texas cases jumped ~3% day over day
    • France reports another drop in new cases, deaths
    • House Panel launches probe into nursing homes over covid-19 deaths
    • NY sees hospitalizations hit lowest level since march
    • Texas hospitalizations climb 8.3%
    • Fla reports another jump in COVID-19 cases as total tops 80k
    • Beijing closes all schools, raises emergency response level to ‘II’
    • China tightens restrictions as another 40 cases confirmed
    • Chinese markets remove all imported salmon
    • Chinese customs officials now testing all imported meat and fish for COVID
    • Number of US states with rising COVID cases declines to 22 from 23
    • Global case total breaks above 8 million
    • Study finds only 50% of US care homes have been inspected for COVID-19 protocols
    • Deaths nearing 450k
    • UK study finds cheap preexisting steroid drug is COVID-19 ‘miracle cure’
    • Popular IMHE COVID-19 projections show 200k+ deaths likely by October

    * * *

    Update (2045ET): Now that Chinese officials are apparently released COVID updates twice a day, China’s NHC announced that Beijing had reported 31 new domestic cases, while a total of 44 new cases were found throughout China, as the pace of the outbreak appeared to quicken.

    Though the number of cases is still relatively insignificant (fewer than 200 new cases have been recorded since Friday), officials declared that the situation in the capital is “extremely severe” and have reimposed restrictions, cancelled sporting events and school, and revived at least some lockdown measures throughout the city of more than 20 million – not just the southwestern neighborhood where the outbreak supposedly originated.

    According to a statement published on a CCP government website, the Municipal Standing Committee of Beijing, the most powerful local entity, determined that new measures must be taken now that the new outbreak has spread throughout Beijing and on to other parts of China. The minutes of the meeting describe the “warlike” response effort that Beijing is rolling out to deal with this “very grim” situation.

    Officials reported that 31 new cases were uncovered in Beijing alone over the last 24 hours, all of them local. Across all of China, 44 cases – including the 31 in Beijing – were reported, with 11 of them identified as “imported” (presumably tied to these infectious imported salmon we keep hearing about). In addition to Beijing, officials are scrambling to contain an outbreak in Guangzhou, a southern port city not far from Hong Kong. The daily total is higher than yesterday’s, prompting one city official to declare that the situation in China is “extremely severe”.

    Several English-language newswires also seemingly caught up with Chinese-language reports from earlier in the day reporting that Beijing’s emergency response level had been raised to 2. The ‘partial lockdowns’ that officials had initially imposed on the area surrounding the market in Fengtai that has been identified as the epicenter of the outbreak has been expanded to all of Beijing, meaning that many residential compounds – at least those deemed to be in “high risk” areas – are now closed off to guests.

    Temperature checks and registration are required for entering residential compounds and those in areas with medium- and high-risk areas are barred from accepting visitors, according to a city government briefing Wednesday night

    * * *

    Update (1745ET): As the total number of confirmed cases in the country approaches the 1 million mark – though experts suspect the true number is already much, much higher – Brazil has set another daily record, reporting just under 35k cases. As President Jair Bolsonaro embarks on an anti-corruption crusade after months of practically ignoring the virus, Brazil has become the second largest outbreak in the world, and the only country that has come even close to the US in terms of confirmed cases and deaths.

    Here’s more from Bloomberg:

    Brazil’s response to the pandemic has been plagued by political infighting and a lack of national coordination that resulted in varying and often conflicting measures from state to state and even city to city. Quarantines and lockdowns implemented by local governments have been repeatedly criticized by President Jair Bolsonaro, who argues that the recession ahead will cause more harm than the virus to a population that often can’t afford not to go to work.

    Meanwhile, the economic toll of the pandemic continues to show in data. Retail sales fell the most ever in April, illustrating the devastation the outbreak is inflicting on consumption, which has historically been a key driver of Brazil’s economic growth. The dive follows record plunges from industrial production to formal job creation. Put together, the central bank is seen cutting its interest rate to an all-time low at Wednesday’s policy meeting.

    Brazil reported a record number of daily cases from coronavirus as the pandemic continues to rage across Latin America’s largest nation.

    The country, which trails only the U.S. in cases and deaths, reported 34,918 new cases, bringing the number of infections to 923,189. The data compiled by Brazilian states also showed 1,282 new fatalities, pushing the total toll to 45,241.

    The pandemic shows no signs of wavering as cases that were concentrated in capitals and the Southeast have spread inland and to poorer regions of the country of 210 million people. At the same time, several states and cities have started to lift quarantine orders in the past few weeks, sparking concern about a new wave of infections. Estimates from PUC University in Rio de Janeiro show cases will likely surpass 1.3 million by late June, with more than 60,000 deaths.

    The chart below illustrates how Brazil’s outbreak has continued to spiral out of control, while the situation in the US has plateaued.

    At this rate, Brazil will become the second country to get to 1 million cases by the end of the week, at the very latest.

    * * *

    Update (1430ET): Newswires have published a correction on the Texas numbers released a few minutes ago. Turns out, cases climbed 2.9% over the past 24 hours, not the 4% jump reported earlier.

    • CORRECT: TEXAS VIRUS CASES JUMP 2.9%, EXCEEDING 2.4% 7-DAY AVG

    Stocks ticked higher on the news.

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    * * *

    Update (1420ET): Once again, California’s daily figures offered traders some respite from a steady drumbeat of negative COVID-19 headlines from the US and China, as state public health officials said that the number of newly confirmed cases declined again over the past day.

    • CALIFORNIA VIRUS CASES RISE 1.4%, LESS THAN 7-DAY AVG 2.1%

    Yesterday, Gov Newsom claimed the state would stay the course with its phased reopenings as the positive testing rate had dropped below 5% and hospitalizations had stabilized.

    On the other side of the coin, Texas said cases confirmed increased by 4% over the last 24 hours, compared with a 7-day average of 2.2%, though the headline didn’t have quite the same impact on risk sentiment as we’ve seen in recent sessions, aside from a few negative ticks.

    • TEXAS VIRUS CASES JUMP 4%, EXCEEDING 2.2% SEVEN-DAY AVERAGE

    Still, Texas Gov Greg Abbott has pushed ahead with reopening, even as certain hot spots have considered the possibility of reviving a ‘stay at home’ order.

    * * *

    Update (1400ET): Earlier, we shared a Politico report showing that less than half of US long-term care facilities have been inspected for whether they’re prepared to handle an outbreak of COVID-19, in accordance with the law.

    Now, a panel led by House Democrats is launching an investigation.

    • HOUSE PANEL TO INVESTIGATE NURSING HOMES OVER COVID-19 DEATHS

    However, we don’t expect them to hold any political figures – particularly governors of major northeastern states – accountable for early policy ‘errors’.

    * * *

    Update (1320ET): The market has mostly shaken off a spate of negative COVID-19 headlines from morning trade as New York and Italy continued to report strong numbers.

    The most interesting piece of information shared by Cuomo was the results of the latest statewide surveillance testing, which found that approxmately 13% of New Yorkers would test positive for the antibodies.

    Hospitalizations and new cases continued to decline, with hospitalizations hitting their lowest levels since March, while testing told “a good story.”

    Watch de Blasio’s latest briefing here below:

    Notably, Cuomo also said Tuesday that playgrounds in NYC will remain closed into July, when social-distancing restrictions should ease as the city enters ‘Phase 2’.

    Italy carried out nearly 50k tests over the last day, reporting just 210 new cases and only 34 deaths, per the Italian press.

    * * *

    Update (1100ET): Losses have accelerated in US stocks following more drip-drip headlines out of Beijing, along with the latest figures on Texas COVID-19-linked hospitalizations, while the dollar strengthens as virus anxieties hammer futures even lower.

    • TEXAS VIRUS HOSPITALIZATIONS RISE 8.3%, MOST IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS

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    The CCP’s commitment to transparency in sharing these ‘warnings’ about the Beijing outbreak seems almost overdone, as these non stop drip-drip headlines hammer US stocks. It’s almost as if they’re saying these things solely to hammer the US market (what’s the point of announcing these measures when it’s the middle of the night in China?).

    As one market analyst noted, the news out of the US and Beijing has stoked fears of a second wave, briefly sending the S&P 500 to its LoD before stocks started to inch back higher.

    * * *

    Update (1035ET): The market just took a hit thanks to a double-whammy of COVID-19-related headlines. In one, Beijing officials reportedly raised the alert level in the capital city after reporting more than 100 new cases, many of them in parts of Beijing, over the past few days, triggering an overwhelming government response to crush the new outbreak, which officials have blamed on imported seafood.

    Schools across Beijing were also ordered to close as online classes resumed for all grades.

    Meanwhile, as a former data scientist fired by Florida’s Department of Health after refusing to doctor the state’s COVID-19 data ramps up her own alternative site providing the ‘real’ data, White House officials and Gov DeSantis have continued to insist that the rebound in new cases is due to an increase in testing, not the state’s reopening (despite the fact that this is obviously untrue), but the latest daily figures will make their excuses sound even less convincing.

    Officials also asked the people of Beijing not to leave the city unless absolutely necessary, and added that if they must leave, they should be tested for COVID-19 first.

    Florida reports 80,109 COVID-19 cases, up 3.6% from yesterday, while the state reported 2,993 deaths, an increase of 1.9% from yesterday, as total cases topped 80k.

    On Tuesday, the state reported a 3.6% increase in new cases, compared with the 7-day average of 2.5% from the week prior, sending stocks spiraling lower.

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    * * *

    Just before 10pmET last night, public health officials in Beijing announced that 40 new cases of the novel coronavirus had been confirmed across China, with 27 of those cases in Beijing. That’s roughly half of the 80+ cases reported across China over the weekend, as officials step up new measures to suppress the latest cluster, which the CCP has strived to blame on Europe.

    Notably, party officials have tried to blame the latest outbreak in Beijing on imported European salmon (officials say they initially detected the virus’s presence on a cutting board where imported salmon had been processed inside the Xinfadi market). As a precaution, officials closed 11 markets in the area and institute travel bans on “high risk” residents while closing residential compounds and placing tens of thousands of Beijing residents on partial lockdown as the city pushes to run more than 90k tests per day. .

    More bizarrely, customs officials have started testing all meat imports (even as China continues to suffer from a shortage of pigs thanks to the ‘pig ebola’ that swept the country’s farmers last year), while local officials have been tasked with “intensive” testing meat already on the shelf. Tests being used are the same nucleic acid tests being used on patients.

    Chinese state-controlled media have raved about the sudden dangers of salmon consumption, prompting markets across the country to toss imported salmon, wasting good nutritious imported seafood for the sake of protecting the new narrative. Further imports of the stuff have been banned (at least temporarily), as BBG reports.

    What’s more, Shanghai will quarantine everyone arriving in the city from mid- to high-risk areas of Beijing for 2 weeks, a city official announced Tuesday. Three bus terminals that handle highway bus traffic between Beijing and Shanghai have also been temporarily shuttered.

    As expected, the global outbreak reached a new milestone overnight, passing the 8 million case mark, as cases reached 8,005,294, according to Johns Hopkins University.

    The worldwide death toll, meanwhile, topped 435,662.

    As China and India engage in the most contentious border dispute in nearly 50 years, health officials in India reported 10,667 new infections over the past 24 hours, down from 11,502 the prior day, raising the countrywide total to 343,091, while the country’s fatalities neared the 10k mark (9,900, up 380 from Monday morning). India has seen new cases skyrocket since it started easing its restrictive lockdown.

    While the US and the American press have focused most of their attention on vaccine trials and remdesivir, another cheap already extant drug has reportedly been found to definitively reduce COVID-19-related mortality according to a new study from Oxford. Patients on ventilators – ie those in the worst shape – saw the biggest reduction in mortality. “It’s the only drug so far shown to reduce mortality…and it reduces it significantly.”

    Per the BBC, a cheap and widely available drug called dexamethasone has been found to help seriously ill patients suffering from COVID-19. UK experts say the low-dose steroid treatment is a major breakthrough in the fight against the virus as it reduced the mortality rate of the most vulnerable patients by one-third.

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    The news prompted a strong risk-on rally lifting US stock futures to session highs.

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    To be sure, Dr. Feigl Ding noted in a twitter thread that the results are promising, but that declaring the drug a “miracle cure” is a little premature.

    Still, the study found that the inexpensive drug significantly reduces mortality in the most seriously ill patients, while having little effect on patients who aren’t all that sick.

    During an interview on CNBC, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former FDA director, said the study was well-organized and its findings – that a low-cost steroid can significantly reduce mortality among the most seriously ill patients – represent a major breakthrough. He also offhandedly noted that the CDC had discouraged the use of steroids like Dexamethasone.

    After a wave of new coronavirus cases were reported in Tokyo over the past week, Japanese officials have set out to try and determine how extensively the virus penetrated Japanese society during its original run. Antibody tests reportedly suggest that 0.1% of Tokyo residents have been infected with the virus.

    South Korea reported 34 new cases Tuesday, down from 37 a day ago, raising its total infections to 12,155, with 278 deaths.
    New Zealand reports two new cases, both related to recent travel from the UK after PM Jacinda Ardern declared the country “coronavirus free” last week, though she warned that new infections could arise due to international travel and commerce.

    Moving on to the US, Politico reports that 1000s of nursing homes across the country have not been inspected to see whether staff are following proper procedures to prevent a deadly viral outbreak, after deaths in long-term care facilities accounted for a quarter of all COVID-19 deaths. Despite this, only a little more than half of the nation’s nursing homes had received inspections, according to data released earlier this month.

    As scrutiny of Florida’s testing data intensifies, Texas public health officials reported a pullback in newly confirmed cases on Monday, with new cases rising 1.4% vs. Prev. 7-day average of 2.3%.

    A few days ago, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington raised its projections for COVID-19 deaths to 170k+ by the end of the summer. Now, it’s raising that forecast slightly to account for the surge in new cases in states like Florida and Texas. The new national forecast calls for 200k+ cases (201,129) by October, while death toll figures for Florida are expected to climb 186% to 18,675 from 6,559.

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    Though the number of new coronavirus deaths across the US has been trending downward, new cases have started to trend higher again as the new hotspots compensate for the drop in infections across the NYC greater metro area. Notably, the NYT removed California from its list of states where new cases are rising, as state officials saw the critical new cases number decline over the course of the past week.

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    Source: NYT

    Beijing will hold another press briefing at 8pm local time (8amET) as it returns to the 2-briefings-a-day schedule to which it adhered during the heyday of the outbreak in Wuhan, though it’s unclear how much of the briefing will focus on the virus given the renewed tensions with India.

  • Senate Panel Approves Funds For Live Nuclear Testing "If Necessary"
    Senate Panel Approves Funds For Live Nuclear Testing “If Necessary”

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 21:05

    Previously is was only in the realm of speculation whether the White House would actually move forward with recent confirmed “discussions” over resumption of live nuclear testing, which hasn’t been done in nearly thirty years, since the close of the Cold War and implementation of arms reduction treaties. 

    But now the Senate Armed Services Committee has just brought the US closer to resumption of testing, and appears to be moving forward with giving President Trump the option of pulling the trigger if the decision is made

    On Monday multiple reports confirmed that under an amendment by hawkish Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, $10 million is to be set aside in preparation for live nuclear testing

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    Nuclear test file image, via NPR.

    The Hill reports the money would be used if needed to “carry out projects related to reducing the time required to execute a nuclear test if necessary,” according to the proposed measure, which was approved in a 14-13 vote related to a markup of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) last week.

    Per The Hill, the funds will be made available related to the Department of Energy and Department of Defense’s nuclear programs “if necessary” — which appears to be the big operative if in question.

    In May a senior Trump admin official told The Washington Post the idea of a US test is “very much an ongoing conversation.”

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    But internal White House discussions have reportedly resulted in severe pushback though Trump is said to favor new tests.

    Critics cite global proliferation concerns, also as multiple weapons treaties with Russia have lately collapsed after US pullout (such as the INF, Open Skies, and now even New START is said to be in danger), as well as the potential door opening to a new dangerous ‘nuclear arms race’ with China and Russia.

    Proponents are open to new tests, however, based on the belief that US “rapid test” could provide much needed leverage in jump-starting arms negotiations with Russia and China for a White House conceived new trilateral arms control deal. 

  • Harvard Professor: "Defunding The Police Is Not A Solution And Could Cost Thousands Of Black Lives"
    Harvard Professor: “Defunding The Police Is Not A Solution And Could Cost Thousands Of Black Lives”

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 20:45

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    A Harvard university Professor has urged that defunding the police would cause more loss of life, citing figures showing that there are “450 excess homicides per year” when police are not able to do their jobs proficiently.

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    “Defunding the police is not a solution and could cost thousands of black lives,” professor Roland Fryer wrote in an email to the College Fix.

    Fryer has recently authored a research paper titled “Policing the Police: The Impact of “Pattern-or-Practice Investigations on Crime,” noting that police are less present when ‘viral incidents’ occur, meaning crime, including homicides increase… a lot.

    “Our estimates suggest that investigating police departments after viral incidents of police violence is responsible for approximately 450 excess homicides per year” the paper reads.

    “This is 2x the loss of life in the line of duty for the US Military in a year, 12.6x the annual loss of life due to school shootings, and 3x the loss of life due to lynchings between 1882 and 1901 – the most gruesome years.” it also notes.

    “If the price of policing increases, officers are rational to retreat,” the study concludes, adding “And, retreating disproportionately costs black lives.”

    Fryer has slammed the media for an “absolute refusal to grapple with the data” and says that there has been an “insistence” among journalists that he should not publicize his findings.

    Previously, Fryer published research concerning racial disparities in police shootings. His 2016 paper concluded that officers were more likely to shoot at white suspects than they were with black suspects, indicating little to no racial bias.

    “In officer-involved shootings in these cities, officers were more likely to fire their weapons without having first been attacked when the suspects were white,” Fryer’s paper read.

    “Black and white civilians involved in police shootings were equally likely to have been carrying a weapon. Both of these results undercut the idea that the police wield lethal force with racial bias,” Fryer also noted.

    Rather than defunding police, Fryer argues that community policing should increase, reasoning that this way officers can make more accurate distinctions between people when they have more frequent, non-confrontational interactions with them.

    The professor also suggests that investment should go toward “new technologies for police officers that allow them to do their jobs, safely, without lethal force against anyone.”

  • Amazon Employees Beware: World's First Warehouse Picker Robot Debuts 
    Amazon Employees Beware: World’s First Warehouse Picker Robot Debuts 

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 20:25

    Amazon is leading a robotics race that has transformed the warehouse industry. The online retailer employs hundreds of thousands of employees in its massive warehouse network, which has also invested heavily in robots and other automation technologies, suggesting some of these jobs will be eliminated

    Amazon warehouse workers must have an idea their jobs be taken over by robots, especially after the online retailer had an embarrassing several months during the virus pandemic, resulting in shipping delays and product shortages, due to a huge demand surge for online items, but also, employees contracted the deadly virus — resulting in some facilities to shut down for sanitation operations. 

    If white-collar workers at Amazon haven’t evaluated HAI Robotics, well, we might have found the perfect autonomous warehouse robot that will not just cut down labor costs and increase warehouse storage but will minimize virus spread with the elimination of the warehouse picker (the main responsibility of a picker is to gather products for order fulfillment). This could be very critical ahead of the second coronavirus wave as warehouses need to store more essential items and mitigate virus spread. 

    HAI notes in a press release, dated Monday (June 15), that it has debuted the world’s first carton-picking robot. The robot uses 3D visual recognition technology to identify goods without the need for codes, resulting in quicker inventory count through shelf scanning. It uses a telescopic fork to retrieve goods from warehouse shelving units. Here’s what the press release stated: 

    “The rising rental cost of warehouses has become a major issue for many companies. Warehouse managers are constantly looking for the most cost and storage-efficient solution. HAIPICK A42D is the world’s first double-deep ACR that optimizes space usage and increases storage density in warehouses. It can reduce the number of aisles by 50% while increasing storage density by 130%. Its telescopic fork can be customized for two rows of double-deep shelving. Its intelligent algorithm can be tailored to meet diverse business models.

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    “HAIPICK A42N is the world’s first carton-picking ACR. It uses cartons as the handling units rather than only totes. Its 3D visual recognition technology identifies goods without the need of codes, resulting in faster inventory count through shelf scanning. It supports multi-size carton/tote picking and can be applied to multiple business needs. The software platform is tailored to support case-picking and piece-picking. Cartons and totes can be reused to lower costs, the release said. 

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    This could be the robot Amazon uses to replace human pickers in its vast network of warehouses across the country. The online retailer can’t afford labor disruptions, like it did during the first wave of the pandemic. 

  • Progressive Tax States Lose People, Income To Flat And Zero Income Tax States
    Progressive Tax States Lose People, Income To Flat And Zero Income Tax States

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 20:05

    Submitted by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner via Wirepoints.org,

    Flat and no-income tax states, as a group, are beating out progressive tax states in the contest for people and their incomes, according to the last decade of IRS migration data analyzed by Wirepoints. 

    The nation’s seventeen flat and no income tax states won a net 1.9 million residents and $120 billion in Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) from progressive tax states during the 2000-2018 period. That’s nearly a 4 percent AGI gain for the flat and no income tax states, based on their 2010 base of $3.3 trillion in AGI. A table with the individual winners and losers over the time period is provided below.

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    The net gains in AGI not only bolster the tax base the year in which they come in, but they also help all subsequent years. The gains pile up on top of each other, year after year.

    That means the country’s flat and zero income tax states, as a group, have accumulated $490 billion in AGI since 2010 from the nation’s progressive tax states, adding vibrancy, investment and tax revenues to the winning states.

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    States don’t change their income tax schemes often, so when they do, it’s a big deal. The change pits those who favor progressive taxes against those who want a flat tax or no income tax at all. Eight states don’t tax income at all in the U.S., while ten states have flat income taxes. Thirty-two states have some form of a progressive tax scheme.

    Connecticut was the last state to move to a progressive tax structure in 1996, while North Carolina (2013) and Kentucky (2018) changed to a flat tax more recently.

    Now some Illinois politicians want to abandon the state’s flat tax in favor of a progressive income tax. They argue, among other things, that higher taxes will bring more stability and people to the state. 

    But the movement of people and wealth across the country tells a different story. 

    The accumulated pattern over the past nine years is pretty clear. People are moving from progressive tax states to flat and zero income tax states. Of course, people move for a whole host of other reasons beside taxes: jobs, housing, family, weather, retirement, corruption, etc. Taxes are only one reason. But for many people, they are a big one.

    The wealth accumulation by the flat and zero-income tax states is all the more impressive considering there were just 17 such states (not including Kentucky) compared to 33 progressive tax states.

    Total gains

    The $120 billion total is the net transfer between the two groups of states. In terms of individual total wealth gained from migration, zero and flat income tax states make up seven of the top ten winners of net domestic migration. 

    Florida, a state with no income tax, has been the biggest winner by far. The Sunshine State has gained nearly a million net people and over $95 billion in AGI from other states since 2010.

    Zero-tax Texas is up next with a gain of $31 billion in AGI, followed by North Carolina with $16 billion. Two progressive tax states, Arizona and South Carolina are next, then non-progressive Washington, Colorado, Nevada and Tennessee. Progressive tax Oregon rounds out the top 10.

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    In contrast, the list of top losers is filled with progressive tax states. New York is the worst in the country; it has lost a net $55 billion in AGI to other states since 2010. Illinois, where politicians want to join the ranks of progressive-tax states, is next with a net loss of over $34 billion. Progressive tax California, New Jersey, Connecticut and Ohio are next. Flat tax states Massachusetts and Pennsylvania along with progressive Maryland and Virginia round out the top ten losers.

    The gains and losses states have experienced since 2010 aren’t trivial. Winning states have, on average, seen net AGI gains from other states equal to 10 percent of their 2010 base AGI. Once again, Florida takes the top spot with an in-migration gain equivalent to 20 percent of its 2010 AGI. Progressive tax South Carolina is next with a gain of 16.1 percent, followed by Texas with 15.7 percent.

    Illinois, meanwhile, lost the equivalent of 10 percent of its 2010 AGI to other states, the 2nd-worst loss in the nation behind Alaska.

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    What all this shows is that progressive tax states, if they’re attractive in other ways, can still win people and their incomes. And it shows that a flat tax state like Illinois can lose people if it’s corrupt, mismanaged and financially crippled.

    So no, taxes aren’t everything. But add a progressive tax scheme to the nation’s most mismanaged, most-indebted, near-junk-rated and highest taxing state in the country and you’re asking for trouble.

    Just follow the money.

  • Millions Of Jobs Lost From COVID-19 Are Never Coming Back
    Millions Of Jobs Lost From COVID-19 Are Never Coming Back

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 19:45

    As the world makes its way through the coronavirus pandemic together, questions are starting to surface about what the post-coronavirus global economy is going to look like.

    Among those questions is an obvious one: how many jobs that were lost due to the virus are going to remain permanently lost and, conversely, how many people will recover the jobs they once had?

    The answer looks grim. While there is hope that global financial stimulus could help people head back to work once the pandemic runs its course, there is a very real chance of “lasting damage” in many sectors, according to Bloomberg

     

    Fed chair Jerome Powell predicted last week that there will be “well into the millions of people who don’t get to go back to their old job.” He continued: “In fact, there may not be a job in that industry for them for some time.”

    Bloomberg has predicted that 30% of U.S. job losses between February and May were a result of reallocation shock. It suggests a swift labor market recovery, but one that will ultimately level off and leave millions unemployed.

    Among those most at risk are jobs in hospitality, retail, leisure, education and health. Brick and mortar retailers are also even further in the crosshairs of online retailers than they were prior to the pandemic. Hilariously, however, Bloomberg economists say the “markets are already pricing in the risk”.

     

    “50% of U.S. job losses come from the combination of lockdown and weak demand, 30% from the reallocation shock, and 20% from high unemployment benefits,” Bloomberg found.

    A report by the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago estimated 42% of layoffs that occurred as a result of the pandemic will be permanent. 

    Nicholas Bloom, professor of economics at Stanford University who worked on the study said: “There’s a massive reallocation shock. The recession hits different sectors differently. Some benefit and some fall.”

     

    Similarly, The Peterson Institute for International Economics said last week that the shock of the virus may necessitate even further government intervention, including wage subsidies. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said last week that those laid off should be afforded government job training, in order to help a shift in industries, if necessary. 

    Sharan Burrow, General Secretary of the International Trade Union Confederation, concluded: “The pandemic has exposed the fault lines that already existed for working people and the economy. The ‘new normal’ requires a new social contract between governments and their citizens with the backing of the international community.”

  • Veteran CIA Analyst: How An Internet 'Persona' Helped Birth Russiagate
    Veteran CIA Analyst: How An Internet ‘Persona’ Helped Birth Russiagate

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 19:25

    Authored by Ray McGovern via ConsortiumNews.com,

    Four years ago on June 15, 2016, a shadowy Internet persona calling itself “Guccifer 2.0” appeared out of nowhere to claim credit for hacking emails from the Democratic National Committee on behalf of WikiLeaks and implicate Russia by dropping “telltale” but synthetically produced Russian “breadcrumbs” in his metadata.

    Thanks largely to the corporate media, the highly damaging story actually found in those DNC emails – namely, that the DNC had stacked the cards against Bernie Sanders in the party’s 2016 primary – was successfully obscured.

    The media was the message; and the message was that Russia had used G-2.0 to hack into the DNC, interfering in the November 2016 election to help Donald Trump win.

    Almost everybody still “knows” that – from the man or woman in the street to the forlorn super sleuth, Special Counsel Robert Swan Mueller III, who actually based indictments of Russian intelligence officers on Guccifer 2.0.

    Blaming Russia was a magnificent distraction from the start and quickly became the vogue.

    The soil had already been cultivated for “Russiagate” by Democratic PR gems like Donald Trump “kissing up” to former KGB officer Vladimir Putin and their “bromance” (bromides that former President Barack Obama is still using). Four years ago today, “Russian meddling” was off and running – on steroids – acquiring far more faux-reality than the evanescent Guccifer 2.0 persona is likely to get.

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    Here’s how it went down:

    • June 12: WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange announced he had “emails related to Hillary Clinton which are pending publication.”
    • June 14: DNC contractor CrowdStrike tells the media that malware has been found on the DNC server and claims there is evidence it was injected by Russians.
    • June 15: Guccifer 2.0 arises from nowhere; affirms the DNC/CrowdStrike allegations of the day before; claims responsibility for hacking the DNC; claims to be a WikiLeaks source; and posts a document that forensic examination shows was deliberately tainted with “Russian fingerprints.” This to “corroborate” claims made by CrowdStrike executives the day before.

    Adding to other signs of fakery, there is hard evidence that G-2.0 was operating mostly in U.S. time zones and with local settings peculiar to a device configured for use within the US, as Tim Leonard reports here and here.)

    Leonard is a software developer who started to catalog and archive evidence related to Guccifer 2.0 in 2017 and has issued detailed reports on digital forensic discoveries made by various independent researchers – as well as his own – over the past three years. Leonard points out that WikiLeaks said it did not use any of the emails G2.0 sent it, though it later published similar emails, opening the possibility that whoever created G2.0 knew what WikiLeaks had and sent it duplicates with the Russian fingerprints.

    As Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) told President Trump in a memorandum of July 24, 2017, titled “Was the ‘Russian Hack’ an Inside Job?”:

    “We do not think that the June 12, 14, & 15 timing was pure coincidence. Rather, it suggests the start of a pre-emptive move to associate Russia with anything WikiLeaks might have been ready to publish and to ‘show’ that it came from a Russian hack.”

    We added this about Guccifer 2.0 at the time:

    “The recent forensic studies fill in a critical gap. Why the FBI neglected to perform any independent forensics on the original ‘Guccifer 2.0’ material remains a mystery – as does the lack of any sign that the ‘hand-picked analysts’ from the FBI, CIA, and NSA, who wrote the misnomered ‘Intelligence Community’ Assessment dated January 6, 2017, gave any attention to forensics.”

    Guccifer 2.0 Seen As a Fraud

    In our July 24, 2017 memorandum we also told President Trump that independent cyber investigators and VIPs had determined “that the purported ‘hack’ of the DNC by Guccifer 2.0 was not a hack, by Russia or anyone else. Rather it originated with a copy (onto an external storage device – a thumb drive, for example) by an insider. Information was leaked to implicate Russia. We do not know who or what the murky Guccifer 2.0 is. You may wish to ask the FBI. [Emphasis added.].

    Right. Ask the FBI. At this stage, President Trump might have better luck asking Attorney General William Barr, to whom the FBI is accountable – at least in theory. As for Barr, VIPs informed him in a June 5, 2020 memorandum that the head of CrowdStrike had admitted under oath on Dec. 5, 2017 that CrowdStrike has no concrete evidence that the DNC emails published by WikiLeaks on July 22, 2016 were hacked – by Russia or by anyone else. [Emphasis added.] This important revelation has so far escaped attention in the Russia-Russia-Russia “mainstream” media (surprise, surprise, surprise!).

    Back to the Birth of G-2

    It boggles the mind that so few Americans could see Russiagate for the farce it was. Most of the blame, I suppose, rests on a thoroughly complicit Establishment media. Recall: Assange’s announcement on June 12, 2016 that he had Hillary Clinton-related emails came just six weeks before the Democratic convention. I could almost hear the cry go up from the DNC: Houston, We Have a Problem!

    Here’s how bad the problem for the Democrats was. The DNC emails eventually published by WikiLeaks on July 22, 2016, just three days before the Democratic convention, had been stolen on May 23 and 25. This would have given the DNC time to learn that the stolen material included documents showing how the DNC and Clinton campaign had manipulated the primaries and created a host of other indignities, such that Sanders’ chances of winning the nomination amounted to those of a snowball’s chance in the netherworld.

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    Clinton at the 2016 convention, via Wikimedia Commons.

    To say this was an embarrassment would be the understatement of 2016. Worse still, given the documentary nature of the emails and WikiLeaks’ enviable track record for accuracy, there would be no way to challenge their authenticity. Nevertheless, with the media in full support of the DNC and Clinton, however, it turned out to be a piece of cake to divert attention from the content of the emails to the “act of war” (per John McCain) that the Russian “cyber attack” was said to represent.

    The outcome speaks as much to the lack of sophistication on the part of American TV watchers, as it does to the sophistication of the Democrats-media complicity and cover-up. How come so few could figure out what was going down?

    It was not hard for some experienced observers to sniff a rat. Among the first to speak out was fellow Consortium News columnist Patrick Lawrence, who immediately saw through the Magnificent Diversion. I do not know if he fancies duck hunting, but he shot the Russiagate canard quite dead – well before the Democratic convention was over.

    Magnificent Diversion

    In late July 2016, Lawrence was sickened, as he watched what he immediately recognized as a well planned, highly significant deflection. The Clinton-friendly media was excoriating Russia for “hacking” DNC emails and was glossing over what the emails showed; namely, that the Clinton Dems had pretty much stolen the nomination from Sanders.

    It was already clear even then that the Democrats, with invaluable help from intelligence leaks and other prepping to the media, had made good use of those six weeks between Assange’s announcement that he had emails “related to Hillary Clinton” and the opening of the convention.

    The media was primed to castigate the Russians for “hacking,” while taking a prime role in the deflection. It was a liminal event of historic significance, as we now know. The “Magnificent Diversion” worked like a charm – and then it grew like Topsy.

    Lawrence said he had “fire in the belly” on the morning of July 25 as the Democratic convention began and wrote what follows pretty much “in one long, furious exhale” within 12 hours of when the media started really pushing the “the Russians-did-it” narrative.

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    Patrick Lawrence

    Below is a slightly shortened text of his article:

    “Now wait a minute, all you upper-case “D” Democrats. A flood light suddenly shines on your party apparatus, revealing its grossly corrupt machinations to fix the primary process and sink the Sanders campaign, and within a day you are on about the evil Russians having hacked into your computers to sabotage our elections …

    Is this a joke? Are you kidding? Is nothing beneath your dignity? Is this how lowly you rate the intelligence of American voters? …

    Clowns. Subversives. Do you know who you remind me of? I will tell you: Nixon, in his famously red-baiting campaign – a disgusting episode – … during his first run for the Senate, in 1950. Your political tricks are as transparent and anti-democratic as his, it is perfectly fair to say.

    I confess to a heated reaction to events since last Friday [July 22] among the Democrats, specifically in the Democratic National Committee. I should briefly explain …

    The Sanders people have long charged that the DNC has had its fingers on the scale, as one of them put it the other day, in favor of Hillary Clinton’s nomination. The prints were everywhere – many those of Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who has repeatedly been accused of anti-Sanders bias. Schultz, do not forget, co-chaired Clinton’s 2008 campaign against Barack Obama. That would be enough to disqualify her as the DNC’s chair in any society that takes ethics seriously, but it is not enough in our great country. Chairwoman she has been for the past five years.

    Last Friday WikiLeaks published nearly 20,000 DNC email messages providing abundant proof that Sanders and his staff were right all along. The worst of these, involving senior DNC officers, proposed Nixon-esque smears having to do with everything from ineptitude within the Sanders campaign to Sanders as a Jew in name only and an atheist by conviction.

    Wasserman fell from grace on Monday. Other than this, Democrats from President Obama to Clinton and numerous others atop the party’s power structure have had nothing to say, as in nothing, about this unforgivable breach. They have, rather, been full of praise for Wasserman Schultz. Brad Marshall, the D.N.C.’s chief financial officer, now tries to deny that his Jew-baiting remark referred to Sanders. Good luck, Brad: Bernie is the only Jew in the room.

    The caker came on Sunday, when Robby Mook, Clinton’s campaign manager, appeared on ABC’s “This Week” and … CNN’s “State of the Union” to assert that the D.N.C.’s mail was hacked “by the Russians for the purpose of helping Donald Trump.” He knows this – knows it in a matter of 24 hours – because “experts” – experts he will never name – have told him so. …

    What’s disturbing to us is that experts are telling us that Russian state actors broke into the DNC, stole these emails, and other experts are now saying that Russians are releasing these emails for the purpose of helping Donald Trump.

    Is that what disturbs you, Robby? Interesting. Unsubstantiated hocus-pocus, not the implications of these events for the integrity of Democratic nominations and the American political process? The latter is the more pressing topic, Robby. You are far too long on anonymous experts for my taste, Robby. And what kind of expert, now that I think of it, is able to report to you as to the intentions of Russian hackers – assuming for a sec that this concocted narrative has substance?

    Making lemonade out of a lemon, the Clinton campaign now goes for a twofer. Watch as it advances the Russians-did-it thesis on the basis of nothing, then shoots the messenger, then associates Trump with its own mess – and, finally, gets to ignore the nature of its transgression (which any paying-attention person must consider grave).

    Preposterous, readers. Join me, please, in having absolutely none of it. There is no “Russian actor” at the bottom of this swamp, to put my position bluntly. You will never, ever be offered persuasive evidence otherwise.

    Reluctantly, I credit the Clinton campaign and the DNC with reading American paranoia well enough such that they may make this junk stick. In a clear sign the entire crowd-control machine is up and running, The New York Times had a long, unprofessional piece about Russian culprits in its Monday editions. It followed Mook’s lead faithfully: not one properly supported fact, not one identified “expert,” and more conditional verbs than you’ve had hot dinners – everything cast as “could,” “might,” “appears,” “would,” “seems,” “may.” Nothing, once again, as to the very serious implications of this affair for the American political process.

    Now comes the law. The FBI just announced that it will investigate – no, not the DNC’s fraudulent practices (which surely breach statutes), but “those who pose a threat in cyberspace.” … it is the invocation of the Russians that sends me over the edge. My bones grow weary …

    We must take the last few days’ events as a signal of what Clinton’s policy toward Russia will look like should she prevail in November. … Turning her party’s latest disgrace into an occasion for another round of Russophobia is mere preface, but in it you can read her commitment to the new crusade.

    Trump, to make this work, must be blamed for his willingness to negotiate with Moscow. This is now among his sins. Got that? Anyone who says he will talk to the Russians has transgressed the American code. … Does this not make Hillary Clinton more than a touch Nixonian?

    I am developing nitrogen bends from watching the American political spectacle. One can hardly tell up from down. Which way for a breath of air?”

    A year later Lawrence interviewed several of us VIPs, including our two former NSA technical directors and on Aug. 9, 2017 published an article for The Nation titled, “A New Report Raises Big Questions About Last Year’s DNC Hack.”

    Lawrence wrote, “Former NSA experts, now members of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPs), say it wasn’t a hack at all, but a leak – an inside job by someone with access to the DNC’s system.”

    And so it was. But, sadly, that cut across the grain of the acceptable Russia-gate narrative at The Nation at the time. Its staff, seriously struck by the HWHW (Hillary Would Have Won) virus, rose up in rebellion. A short time later, there was no more room at The Nation for his independent-minded writing.

  • No V-Shaped Recovery? Cargo Vessel Calls Plunge At Singapore Port To Three Decade Low
    No V-Shaped Recovery? Cargo Vessel Calls Plunge At Singapore Port To Three Decade Low

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 19:05

    Singapore’s geographical location makes it one of the most important maritime trade lines connecting the global economy. It’s home to one of the largest ports in the world, on par with ones seen in Hong Kong, London, Shanghai, and Dubai. Port activity data via Singapore’s government is suggesting world trade has yet to recover, which means a V-shaped recovery in the global economy is unlikely in the back half of the year.

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    New data from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) shows the number of vessel callings (otherwise known as port of call — an intermediate stop for a ship on its scheduled journey for cargo operation or taking on supplies or fuel) at the Port of Singapore sank in May to 3,059, the lowest since 1993, or near a three-decade low. 

    Containerized activity remained sluggish last month, despite the hopes for a recovery in world trade — Reuters notes shipping activity and bunker demand is expected to slump through June. 

    Blank sailings surged in the first week of June, with total blanked capacity nearing 4 million twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU), research firm Sea-Intelligence said last week.

    A plunge in world trade has severely weighed on marine refueling, or bunkering, activity in Singapore. 

    “COVID-19 finally caught up in terms of bunker trend,” a Singapore-based bunker fuel trader told Reuters. 

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    Singapore bunker fuel sales volumes fell in May to 3.925 million tonnes, down 2% YoY, and -5% from April, reported MPA. 

    A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world’s largest container line, warned not too long ago that world trade would continue to falter with declines extending well through 2Q20. 

    Maersk dashed all hope that a V-shaped recovery would be seen in the back half of the year, instead suggesting a U-shaped recovery is more plausible. 

    The World Trade Organization (WTO) published its Goods Trade Barometer in late May, which suggested a sharp contraction in world trade would extend through summer. 

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    Last week, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned the COVID-19 pandemic triggered one of the most severe global recessions in nearly a century and will leave the world scarred for years. 

    OECD chief economist Laurence Boone wrote in the report: 

    “Most people see a V-shaped recovery, but we think it’s going to stop halfway. By the end of 2021, the loss of income exceeds that of any previous recession over the last 100 years outside wartime, with dire and long-lasting consequences for people, firms, and governments.” 

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    If Singapore ship arrivals don’t improve and bunker fuel demand doesn’t accelerate – then how can there be a global rebound in world trade in the back half of the year? 

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 16th June 2020

  • Global Sugar Consumption Declines For First Time In Forty Years 
    Global Sugar Consumption Declines For First Time In Forty Years 

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 02:45

    The pandemic has thrust the global economy into a crippling recession. It could take several years for the world to return to either its long-term linear or exponential growth trends, resulting in diminishing demand for certain commodities. 

    According to research firm Czarnikow Group, the virus-induced economic downturn has led to the first year-on-year decline in global sugar consumption since 1980, when sugar prices hit a high of 45c/lb. 

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    The global closure of the travel and tourism industries has been one of the most significant contributing factors behind sliding demand for sugary food products. Czarnikow wrote lockdowns have led to reduced consumption out-of-home and at-home:

    “There has been a reversal of this recent trend of 1% growth each year. Due to this fall, we have reduced our consumption estimates for locations that are still under lockdown by 5%. Under lockdown, there are associated reductions in at-home-consumption due to shortages in stockists, supply chain delays, and the closure of the entertainment industry.

    “This final factor is particularly important when estimating consumption patterns. This is because we believe that out-of-home sugar consumption is likely to be even more reduced than in-home sugar consumption. When people can’t go to the shops, cinema, sports events, and bars, the amount of sugar – mostly in the form of sugary drinks, fast food, and treat foods – is also reduced. We can verify this by looking at soft drinks sales, which have been particularly affected by lockdowns and the reduction of social gatherings.” – Czarnikow 

    “Consumption out of home is normally more than what you would now substitute and have at home,” Ben Seed, an analyst at Czarnikow in London, told Bloomberg

    “If you go to the cinema, you would probably quite happily have a liter or maybe more of soda while you watch the film, whereas we just don’t think people would drink a whole liter of soda while watching Netflix,” Seed said. 

    Coca-Cola’s sales volumes were down 25% during the month of April, and the company warned the economic downturn will weigh heavily in the second quarter. PepsiCo Inc was another that expects second-quarter revenue to slide.

    Czarnikow said global sugar consumption will decline 1.2% to 169.9 million tons this year. 

    ICE-US Sugar July contracts plunged from $15.9 to $9.05, or about 43% decline in 52 sessions, bottoming out in late April. Since the bottom, contracts have soared 35% into mid-June — have hit resistance just shy of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($12.47). 

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    John Stansfield, an analyst at trader Group Sopex, told Bloomberg that falling demand could result in large sugar surpluses this year and next. 

    “The bigger picture of falling sugar consumption comes from sales data of Coke and Pepsi, which is terrible,” Stansfield said, adding that, “but what I fear more is falling global GDP. Unemployed people won’t be going to restaurants and bars. As GDP stalls, so will sugar consumption.”

    To sum up, with no V-shaped recovery in the global economy this year — the road to recovery will be slow and long — suggesting the sugar industry is about to go bust.

    If you’re wondering about the latest data on the type of recovery ahead, read our latest piece titled “OECD Warns Of Deepest Global Downturn In Century, Second Virus Wave.” 

  • EU Farmers Fear The 'European Green New Deal'
    EU Farmers Fear The ‘European Green New Deal’

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Marcus Holtkoetter viaAGWeb.com,

    The European Commission has a plan to eliminate modern farming in Europe.

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    The details emerged last month, as part of a “European Green Deal” announced late last year that calls for the continent to become “climate neutral” by 2050.

    The commission speaks of “turning climate and environmental challenges into opportunities.” It also talks about “making the transition just and inclusive for all.”

    It should have added three words: “except for farmers.”

    That’s because the EU Commission just released its “Farm to Fork” strategy, which is the agricultural portion of the European Green Deal. It announces a series of unrealistic goals: In the next decade, farmers like me are supposed to slash our use of crop-protection products by half, cut our application of fertilizer by 20 percent, and transform a quarter of total farmland into organic production.

    None of this, of course, is supposed to disrupt anybody’s dinner.

    Europeans are blessed to live in a well-fed society. We have stable governments, reliable infrastructure, and advanced economies. We also have some of the best farmland in the world, with good soil and strong yields, year after year. Through intensive farming, we achieve excellent results—and we don’t face the problems of hunger and malnutrition that plague less fortunate people in other societies.

    What the European Commission now proposes, essentially, is smaller harvests. For consumers, this will lead directly to one thing: Higher prices. Food will cost more.

    There’s also a deeper problem. How are farmers supposed to make a living when we’re growing fewer crops and selling less food? The commission fails to consider one of the most likely results of its misbegotten approach to agriculture: When farmers can’t turn a profit, they’ll quit farming.

    If that happens, the smaller harvests will shrink even further.

    This defies what the commission says is its major goal, which is to make “the EU’s economy sustainable.” It needs to understand that there is no such thing as economic sustainability without a sustainable economy.

    It also raises the question of where our food will come from, if it doesn’t come from our own farms. We could always import more food from other places. Global trade already is an essential feature of food production. We should encourage more of it.

    Yet the European Green Deal will lead to substandard farming in places with less productive farmland. This may help fill bellies in a Europe that has fewer farmers. It may even salve the consciences of activists and bureaucrats in Brussels. It certainly won’t help the climate.

    Our goal should be to grow more food on less land. Yet the EU’s present approach, driven by ideology rather than science, will lead to growing less food on more land.

    What’s “green” about that?

    This is all supposed to happen, by the way, at a time of worldwide population growth. Demographers expect that an additional 2 billion people will inhabit our planet by 2050. We need to feed them, too. Figuring out how to do this over the next 30 years is farming’s major challenge—and the solution, if we find one, lies in the creative use of innovative technologies, products and strategies, especially in the developing world.

    What we don’t need are the additional burden of restrictions that will make it harder for Europeans to feed themselves.

    Worst of all, however, the European Green Deal seems to assume that farmers are the foes of conservation. It treats us as a problem to be solved rather than allies in a common cause.

    We’re already working hard to be as “green” as possible. On my farm, we produce a portion of our electricity with solar panels. We use GPS and other technologies to reduce waste when we apply manure and fight weeds. We plant cover crops to protect soil erosion. We grow flower strips to attract pollinating insects and improve biodiversity.

    As time and technology allow, we’ll do even more of this. The surest way to prevent positive innovation, however, is to threaten the ability of farmers to make a living.

    For farmers – and everybody – the European Green Deal is a rotten deal.

  • Three NYPD Officers "Intentionally Poisoned" With Bleach At Manhattan Shake Shack; Company Responds
    Three NYPD Officers “Intentionally Poisoned” With Bleach At Manhattan Shake Shack; Company Responds

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/16/2020 – 00:10

    Update (0146ET): Shake Shack has responded to the incident, Tweeting early Tuesday morning: “We are horrified by the reports of police officers injured at our 200 Broadway Shack in Manhattan. We are working with the police in their investigation right now.”

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    Three NYPD officers were poisoned at a Shake Shack on Broadway in Manhattan Monday night, according to New York Benevolent Police Association (PBA) and confirmed by the Detectives’ Endowment Association.

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    “At some point during their meal period, the MOS discovered that a toxic substance, believed to be bleach, had been placed in their beverages,” reads a statement from PBA President Patrick Lynch, who added that the contamination was not discovered until the officers had already consumed some of their beverages.

    The NYPD Detectives’ Endowment Association tweeted on Monday that three officers were “intentionally poisoned by one or more workers at the Shake Shack at 200 Broadway in Manhattan” are responsible, adding that none of the officers were seriously harmed. 

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  • Whitney: Do Deep State Elements Operate Within The Protest Movement?
    Whitney: Do Deep State Elements Operate Within The Protest Movement?

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 23:50

    Authored by Mike Whitney via The Unz Review,

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    Revolutions are often seen as spontaneous. It looks like people just went into the street. But it’s the result of months or years of preparation. It is very boring until you reach a certain point, where you can organize mass demonstrations or strikes. If it is carefully planned, by the time they start, everything is over in a matter of weeks.” Foreign Policy Journal

    Does anyone believe the nationwide riots and looting are a spontaneous reaction to the killing of George Floyd?

    It’s all too coordinated, too widespread, and too much in-sync with the media narrative that applauds the “mainly peaceful protests” while ignoring the vast destruction to cities across the country. What’s that all about? Do the instigators of these demonstrations want to see our cities reduced to urban wastelands where street gangs and Antifa thugs impose their own harsh justice? That’s where this is headed, isn’t it?

    Of course there are millions of protesters who honestly believe they’re fighting racial injustice and police brutality. And more power to them. But that certainly doesn’t mean there aren’t hidden agendas driving these outbursts. Quite the contrary. It seems to me that the protest movement is actually the perfect vehicle for affecting dramatic social changes that only serve the interests of elites. For example, who benefits from defunding the police? Not African Americans, that’s for sure. Black neighborhoods need more security not less. And yet, the New York Times lead editorial on Saturday proudly announces, “Yes, We Mean Literally Abolish the Police–Because reform won’t happen.” Check it out:

    “We can’t reform the police. The only way to diminish police violence is to reduce contact between the public and the police….There is not a single era in United States history in which the police were not a force of violence against black people. Policing in the South emerged from the slave patrols in the 1700 and 1800s that caught and returned runaway slaves. In the North, the first municipal police departments in the mid-1800s helped quash labor strikes and riots against the rich. Everywhere, they have suppressed marginalized populations to protect the status quo.

    So when you see a police officer pressing his knee into a black man’s neck until he dies, that’s the logical result of policing in America. When a police officer brutalizes a black person, he is doing what he sees as his job…” (“Yes, We Mean Literally Abolish the Police–Because reform won’t happen”, New York Times)

    So, according to the Times, the problem isn’t single parent families, or underfunded education or limited job opportunities or fractured neighborhoods, it’s the cops who have nothing to do with any of these problems. Are we supposed to take this seriously, because the editors of the Times certainly do. They’d like us to believe that there is groundswell support for this loony idea, but there isn’t. In a recent poll, more than 60% of those surveyed, oppose the idea of defunding the police. So why would such an unpopular, wacko idea wind up as the headline op-ed in the Saturday edition? Well, because the Times is doing what it always does, advancing the political agenda of the elites who hold the purse-strings and dictate which ideas are promoted and which end up on the cutting room floor. That’s how the system works. Check out this excerpt from an article by Paul Craig Roberts:

    “The extraordinary destruction of white and Asian businesses in many instances wiping out a family’s lifetime work, the looting of national businesses whose dumbshit CEOs support the looters, the merciless gang beatings of whites and Asians who attempted to defend their persons and their property, the egging on of the violence by politicians in both parties and by the entirely of the media including many alternative media websites, shows a country undergoing collapse. This is why it is not shown in national media. Some local media show an indication of the violent destruction in their community, but it is not accumulated and presented to a national audience. Consequently, Americans think the looting and destruction is only a local occurance… I just checked CNN and the BBC and there is nothing about the extraordinary economic destruction and massive thefts.” (“The Real Racists”, Paul Craig Roberts, Unz Review)

    Roberts makes a good point, and one that’s worth mulling over. Why has the media failed to show the vast destruction of businesses and private property? Why have they minimized the effects of vandalism, looting and arson? Why have they fanned the flames of social unrest from the very beginning, shrugging off the ruin and devastation while cheerleading the demonstrations as a heroic struggle for racial justice? Is this is the same media that supported every bloody war, every foreign intervention, and every color-revolution for the last 5 decades? Are we really expected to believe that they’ve changed their stripes and become an energized proponent of social justice?

    Nonsense. The media’s role in concealing the damage should only convince skeptics that the protests are just one part of a much larger operation. What we’re seeing play out in over 400 cities across the US, has more to do with toppling Trump and sowing racial division than it does with the killing of George Floyd. The scale and coordination alone suggests that elements in the deep state are probably involved. We know from evidence uncovered during the Russiagate probe, that the media works hand-in-glove with the Intel agencies and FBI while–at the same time– serving as a mouthpiece for elites. That hasn’t changed, in fact, it’s gotten even worse. The uniformity of the coverage suggests that that same perception management strategy is being employed here as well. Even at this late date, the determination to remove Trump from office is as strong as ever even though, in the present case, it has been combined with the broader political strategy of inciting fratricidal violence, obliterating urban areas, and spreading anarchy across the country. This isn’t about racial justice or police brutality, it’s about regime change, internal destabilization, and martial law. Take a look at this article at The Herland Report:

    “What the Black Lives Matter movement does not understand is that they are being used by the billionaire white capitalists who are fighting to push the working class even lower and end the national sovereignty principles that president Trump stands for in America….

    The rightful grievance over racism against blacks is now used to get Trump since Russia Gate, Impeachment, the corona scandal and nothing else has worked. The aim is to end democracy in the United States, control Congress and politics and assemble the power into the hands of the very few…

    It is all about who will own the United States and have free access to its revenues: Either the American people under democracy or globalist billionaire individuals.” (“Politicized USA Gene Sharp riots is another attempted coup d’etat – New Left Tyranny” The Herland Report

    That sounds about right to me. The protests are merely a fig leaf for a “color revolution” that bears a striking resemblance to the more than 50 CIA-backed coups launched on foreign governments in the last 70 years. Have the chickens have come home to roost? It certainly looks like it. Here’s more from the same article:

    “Use a grievance that the local population has against the system, identify and support those who oppose the current government, infiltrate and strengthen opposition movements, fund them with millions of dollars, organize protests that seem legitimate and have paid political instigators dress up in regular clothes to blend in.”

    So, yes, the grievances are real, but that doesn’t mean that someone else is not steering the action. And just as the media is shaping the narrative for its own purposes, so too, there are agents within the movement that are inciting the violence. All of this suggests the existence of some form of command-control that provides logistical support and assists in communications. Check out this excerpt from a post at Colonel Pat Lang’s website Sic Semper Tyrannis:

    “The logistical capabilities of antifa+ are also impressive. They can move people around the country with ease, position pallet loads of new brick, 55 gallon new trash cans of frozen water bottles and other debris suitable for throwing on gridded patterns around cities in a well thought out distribution pattern. Who pays for this? Who plans this? Who coordinates these plans and gives “execute orders?”

    Antifa+ can create massive propaganda campaigns that fit their agenda. These campaigns are fully supported by the MSM and by many in the Congressional Democratic Party. The present meme of “Defund the Police” is an example. This appeared miraculously, and simultaneously across the country. I am impressed. Yesterday the frat boy type who is mayor of Minneapolis was booed out of a mass meeting of radicals in that fair city because he refused to endorse abolishing the police force. Gutting the civil police forces has long been a major goal of the far left, but now, they have the ability to create mass hysteria over it when they have an excuse.” (“My take on the present situation”, Sic Semper Tyrannis)

    Colonel Lang is not the only one to marvel at Antifa’s “logistical capabilities”. The United States has never experienced two weeks of sustained protests in hundreds of its cities at the same time. It’s beyond suspicious, it points to extensive coordination with groups across the country, a comprehensive media strategy (that probably preceded the killing of George Floyd), a sizable presence on social media (to put people on the street), and agents provocateur whose task is to incite violence, loot and create mayhem.

    None of this has anything to do with racial justice or police brutality. America is being destabilized and sacked for other purposes altogether. This a destabilization campaign similar to the CIA’s color revolutions designed to topple the regime (Trump), install a puppet government (Biden), impose “shock therapy” on the economy pushing tens of millions of Americans into homelessness and destitution, and leave behind a broken, smoldering shell of a country easily controlled by Federal shock troops and wealthy globalist mandarins. Here’s a short excerpt from an article by Kurt Nimmo at his excellent blog “Another Day in the Empire”:

    “The BLM represents the forefront of an effort to divide Americans along racial and political lines, thus keeping race and identity-based barbarians safely away from more critical issues of importance to the elite, most crucially a free hand to plunder and ransack natural resources, minerals, crude oil, and impoverish billions of people whom the ruling elite consider unproductive useless eaters and a hindrance to the drive to dominate, steal, and murder….

    It is sad to say BLM serves the elite by ignoring or remaining ignorant of the main problem—boundless predation by a neoliberal criminal project that considers all—black, white, yellow, brown—as expliotable and dispensable serfs.” (“2 Million Arab Lives Don’t Matter“, Kurt Nimmo, Another Day in the Empire)

    The protest movement is the mask that conceals the maneuvering of elites. The real target of this operation is the Constitutional Republic itself. Having succeeded in using the Lockdown to push the economy into severe recession, the globalists are now inciting a fratricidal war that will weaken the opposition and prepare the country for a new authoritarian order.

  • Woke Mobs Now Destroying Statues Of Leading Anti-Slavery Figures
    Woke Mobs Now Destroying Statues Of Leading Anti-Slavery Figures

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 23:30

    Police in various American cities especially on the East and West coasts have stood down while fanatical mobs of leftists unilaterally determine which public monuments and statues should be toppled, destroyed, and in some cases beheaded — as in the recent “beheading” of a Christopher Columbus statue at a public park in Boston.

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    It didn’t take long for the woke mobs to target statues of the founding fathers and American Constitutional framers in the past days.

    In Portland over the weekend, a large bronze Thomas Jefferson statue that was a central feature of Jefferson High School campus was pulled down after Black Lives Matter protests there.

    Like others across the nation, the Jefferson statue was further defaced with the words “slave owner” and “George Floyd” spray-painted across the base.

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    Via local affiliate news station OPB: “A local hip hop artist named Spazz sits on the Thomas Jefferson statue that was torn down from its pedestal at Jefferson High School in Northeast Portland.”

    But given that increasingly even Abraham Lincoln statues are being targeted, it reveals that neither the Confederacy nor early colonial and American slaveholders are the targets, but all symbols of US history itself. 

    As The Federalist astutely observes

    They make no distinction between Confederate and Union, abolitionist and pro-slavery, 15th-century figures and 20th. They don’t care when a monument was erected, who built it, or why. They have not come to debate or persuade their fellow citizens to relocate these statues to museums or private property. They believe the debate is over and that they have won.

    Their target is not the Confederacy. It is the United States. They mean to destroy symbols of American history writ large, because to them all of American history is racist and genocidal. Their goal is not to cleanse a nation they love of monuments to Confederate traitors who tried to secede, but to cleanse their consciences of ever having loved such an evil and irredeemably racist country in the first place.

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    Even leading abolitionist figures from history are targeted, astoundingly

    That is why you see mobs defacing statues of abolitionists like Matthias Baldwin and Union war heroes like Adm. David Farragut and Gen. George Thomas. That is why the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier of the American Revolution in Philadelphia was vandalized this past weekend with the words “committed genocide.” That is why statues of Christopher Columbus were torn down or beheaded in three cities last week.

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    Simply put, it now appears any white male historical figure is now “tainted” with a “racist” and “genocidal” legacy, no matter the historical record. 

    As another case in point from this past weekend: 

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    A “peaceful” protest took place at Central Park in Whittier on Sunday, or so we are told. It appears that initially the statue was safe, but by the end of it the Quaker abolitionist considered key in the 19th century movement for equal rights wasn’t spared by the ‘woke’ mob.

    John Greenleaf, whose statue now sits damaged and vandalized, including with the spray-painted letters “BLM”, was among the most prominent literary voices leading the fight to end slavery even decades before Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation in 1863.

    If even memorials to famous abolitionists won’t be spared, what will? 

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    Many commentators have noticed that the statue-destroying leftist mobs in both the US and UK have something in common with a certain Mideast terror group…

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    Before and after: the 6th century Bamiyan Buddhas of Afghanistan were destroyed by the Taliban using dynamite in 2001.

  • Manipulating The Masses: Edward Bernays & Why The System Needs Your Compliance
    Manipulating The Masses: Edward Bernays & Why The System Needs Your Compliance

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 23:10

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    You are being controlled. You are being manipulated. You are being brainwashed. If you are still stuck believing that your vote counts and choosing sides is “moral”  in a system set up against you from day one, the propaganda has worked.

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    In this video, we look at the ideas of Edward Bernays, nephew of Sigmund Freud, and a pioneering mind behind the field of public relations and modern propaganda – particularly his ideas on how group psychology, and the illusion of choice, can be used to manipulate the masses.

    This is all about dividing and conquering. While we argue about which political puppet is less evil than the other, they wreak havoc on us and destroy everything in their path for power, fame, and wealth.

    If you want to make the best change, reject the system, the entire system, and refuse to vote. The task of any control system, therefore, is to maintain the facade of political choice and central to this is “the people’s right to vote,” writes Ben O’Hanlon for Medium.

    The easiest way to divide people is through political theater. This is going to be a tough red pill for people to swallow…

    It literally doesn’t matter who you vote for. If your vote actually mattered, it would have already been made illegal.

     “Let us control the money of a nation, and we care not who makes its laws.”

    – A “maxim” of the House of Rothschilds.

    This isn’t an astonishing or groundbreaking statement.  On some visceral level, we all understand this.  So why then, is it so easy to divide people into political groups so a small handful of other people can rule over them? Basically, propaganda – the illusion of choice keeps people stuck believing they are free to decide when it really doesn’t matter much anyway. You don’t get to vote for the people behind the scenes that make all the decisions anyway, only the puppet whose face will be attached to those decisions.

    Voting provides a corrupt system with legitimacy, regardless of who you vote for. It implies that you consent to the outcome because you participated even if you wanted the other guy to win.  The use of dividing people into political parties is not new, but the desire to break free from them and the ruling class. in general, is.

    There is something being concocted in the dens of power, far beyond the public eye, and it doesn’t bode well for the future of this country.

    Anytime you have an entire nation so mesmerized by political theater and public spectacle that they are oblivious to all else, you’d better beware. –John W. Whitehead

    Voting is nothing more than an illusion of choice. It’s akin to slave putting a piece of paper in a box that asks the master to be free. It doesn’t work that way. Figure out the difference between right and wrong, and one of the first things that happen is a refusal to vote for the lesser of two evils…which is still evil, by the way. Because any master who thinks they own anyone else is evil and all politicians think they own you to some degree.

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    Besides, how do you know who won? The mainstream media tells you, right? And they are so honest, just, and trustworthy, and would NEVER do what they are told…oh, wait. Yeah, it’s that insane.

    Trump bent immediately to the will of the deep state. Like a twig in the wind.

    It’s time to be honest about that. The people never had a champion in the ring.

    Let us talk no more of “democracy,” or of “voting”. Of course, that is hard to accept and acknowledge, because it is so devastating to the delusions that hold individuals together from day to day.

    Many people may not even be capable of holding the thought or notion that they might oppose or stop it. Most Americans are now literally numb to the actions of its own government, the lives it is destroying and the lies it is working for.

    The candidates and the creatures of the state who have willingly lied and deceived the people while looking them in the eye (and pretending to have good reasons) are recklessly and wantonly jeopardizing the world in a way that that hasn’t been seen since the cold war. –SHTFPlan, April 13, 2017

    “None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”

    – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

    If you are being honest with yourself, you would surely know by now that you don’t require a ruler, a master, or an authoritarian to make decisions for you. It’s time we begin to own ourselves and reject the power-hungry politicians will to rule over us all. People seem to be getting increasingly angry at those who are trying to wake them up and free them from the mental chains they’ve put on themselves. I see this as a sign that the system’s propaganda has worked, but only on those easy to control from the start.

  • Stocks Soar On Report Trump Planning Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Stimulus
    Stocks Soar On Report Trump Planning Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure Stimulus

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 22:56

    Ten days ago, stocks soared on talk of a $1 trillion-dollar fiscal stimulus bill being “mulled” by the Trump administration.

    Mitch McConnell told White House officials behind closed doors that “another round of fiscal stimulus from Congress could be just under $1 trillion”, a figure that administration officials are reportedly comfortable with.

    Tonight, stocks are soaring once again after Bloomberg reports that a $1 trillion infrastructure stimulus bill is being “mulled” by the Trump administration (why infrastructure this time instead of just a fiscal one? Because it still has to go through the Dem-controlled House, but if it is spun as infrastructure, it has far greater chance of passage).

    “Since he took office, President Trump has been serious about a bipartisan infrastructure package that rebuilds our crumbling roads and bridges, invests in future industries, and promotes permitting efficiency,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said in a statement.

    Sound familiar? It should. But hey, as long is wards off fears of a second global wave of COVID-19, who cares right?

    Indeed, it’s like deja vu all over again!

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    Dow futures are up over 500 points tonight…

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    Additionally, the dollar is extending its fall…

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    And Treasury yields are rising as this means yet more supply…

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    But gold’s spike has been erased…

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    Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the plan, a preliminary version of the proposal being prepared by the Department of Transportation would reserve most of the money for traditional infrastructure work, like roads and bridges, but would also set aside funds for 5G wireless infrastructure and rural broadband.

    The regurgitated headlines come after San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly said in a speech this afternoon:

    “We need to focus on investments that leverage the talent of everyone and contribute to the economy’s long-term growth prospects.”

    She cited health, education and digital infrastructure, such as internet access.

    “Now is an especially good time to take on this type of debt,” Daly said.

    “Even before the crisis, we were in an environment of low interest rates – and that is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. This makes public spending relatively cheap and easy to finance.”

    And what is stopping them? (Apart from getting it through Congress without a massive layer of pork and defunding all of the nation’s police forces) Since with The Fed monetizing all the Treasury issuance, MMT is well and truly here.

  • Rich People Flock To Aspen, Park City As America's Inner Cities Burn 
    Rich People Flock To Aspen, Park City As America’s Inner Cities Burn 

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 22:50

    Demand for luxury properties in Aspen, Colorado, and Park City, Utah, is “through the roof,” explained Mauricio Umansky, CEO of real estate firm The Agency, who recently spoke with Fox Business

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    918 Castle Creek Road, Aspen, CO, Aspen. h/t Coldwell Banker

    Umansky said the pandemic had accelerated the trend of wealthy vacationers staying year-round in rural, resort communities. 

    “A lot of traveling to Europe this year is probably nonexistent … And so I think a lot of Americans are looking where to enjoy the summer,” he said.

    As we’ve previously noted, “there’s a mad rush” of wealthy folks leaving big cities due to the virus pandemic, economic crash, and social unrest. It was noted by Sotheby’s relators that people in the San Francisco Bay Area are fleeing the city for rural communities, such as Marin County, Napa wine country, and south to Monterey’s Carmel Valley. 

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    4227 Big Ranch Road in Napa, California was listed for $10.85 million. h/t Bloomberg

    Some rich people have also fled to their luxury doomsday bunkers — but it seems, for the mainstream household with a couple million dollars in the bank, they’re fleeing to rural communities, no matter if it’s the outskirts of the Bay area, or as we now find out now, Aspen and Park City. 

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    Luxury shelter under construction by Rising S Co, via Bloomberg.

    According to the Park City Board of Realtors, the market was hot during 1Q20 as it outpaced last year, despite a pandemic and economic crash. The number of homes sold rose by 11%, and the median sale price was up 5% YoY. The median sale price is about $2 million, which means the area is an exclusive retreat for the rich as they attempt to isolate themselves from the implosion of American cities. 

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    Park City mansion. h/t The Fisher Group

    In Aspen, median sales prices increased 6.7% to $6.4 million for single-family homes compared to 2019, according to Aspen Board of Realtors. Supply was tight in the first half of 2020 as the number of days home set on the market was reduced by 30%. 

    Umansky said people from New York City are fleeing to Aspen, while Park City is seeing folks from Los Angeles or San Francisco. All of these cities have witnessed strict lockdowns, high unemployment, crashed services economies, and now social unrest — that makes city life unbearable to raise a family. 

    “People have realized that you can work from home,” he said. “And the big question has become: where do you want to sequester with your family if this ever happens again? And so I think people are looking for space and looking for areas where there’s a lot less density.”

    The collapse of American cities is set to spark a massive revival of rural communities in the early 2020s. A combination of social unrest, economic crash, and virus pandemic could result in a plunge of real estate in major metros, with slow recovery time as the crisis as the socio-economic crisis worsens. 

    The trend is your trend — smart money is dumping real estate in major cities — they’re getting the hell out of dodge as radical leftist attempt to defund or disband police departments across the country and turn metros into a world of chaos. 

  • US Restaurant Traffic Suddenly Craters Amid Second Wave Fears
    US Restaurant Traffic Suddenly Craters Amid Second Wave Fears

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 22:46

    After three months of slow but consistent improvement in restaurant dining data in the US and across the globe, in its latest update on “the state of the restaurant industry”, OpenTable today reported the biggest drop in seated restaurant diners (from online, phone and walk-in reservations) since the depth of the global shutdown in March.

    As shown in the OpenTable graphic below, on Sunday, June 14, restaurant traffic suddenly tumbled, sliding from a -66.5% y/y decline as of June 13 to -78.8% globally.

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    This was mostly due to a sharp drop in US restaurant diners, which plunged by 13% – from -65% to -78% – the biggest one day drop since the start of the shutdown in the US, and the second biggest one day drop on record.

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    The drop was uniform across most US states, which saw a traffic dip between 10% and 25% overnight.

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    While the upward trend in dining was barely impacted by the roughly 3 weeks of protests across the US, the most likely catalyst was the widespread media coverage of spiking coronavirus cases across several states including California, Florida and Arizona. And while not necessarily surprising, the speed and severity of the decline demonstrates just how quickly any V-shaped recovery can collapse under its own weight if enough people become convinced that the pandemic is making a comeback.

  • Mike Krieger: "Trust No One!"
    Mike Krieger: “Trust No One!”

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 22:30

    Authored by Michael Krieger via LibertyBlitzkrieg.com,

    The title of today’s post is not meant to be taken literally. I trust plenty of people. I trust friends who’ve demonstrated their trustworthiness over the years. I trust my family. Having people in my life I love and trust makes everything far more meaningful and pleasant. I hope people reading this likewise have a circle of trust they’ve built over the years.

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    On the other hand, you should never trust anyone or anything that hasn’t given you good reason to do so, and if someone or something gives you good reason not to trust them, you should never forget that. The more power a person or institution has in society, the less trustworthy they tend to be. I don’t say this because it’s fun to be cynical, I say this because my life experience has demonstrated its accuracy.

    In the 21st century alone, I’ve been given good reason to distrust all sorts of things around me, including the U.S. government (all governments really), intelligence agencies, politicians, mass media, Wall Street and Silicon Valley, to name a few. These power centers make up “society” as we know it in 2020, which is really just massive concentrations of lawless financial and political power obfuscating rampant criminality behind the cover various ostensibly venerable institutions. What’s most remarkable is how many people still maintain trust in so many of these provably untrustworthy organizations and industries, which speaks to the power of propaganda as well as the comfort of denial.

    That said, the ground is clearly beginning to shift on this front. As more and more people recognize that the system’s designed to work against them, increased numbers will reject conventional wisdom and search for an alternative framework. Unfortunately, this next step can be equally treacherous and it’s important not to jump from the frying pan into the fire.

    This is where social media comes into play. It offers an endless array of opinions and analysis that you don’t get from mass media, but it’s also filled with bad actors, professional propagandists and con artists. At this point, everyone knows that social media is the new information battleground, so every character or institution with malicious intent is aggressively playing in this arena and often with boatloads of money. The charlatans at MSNBC will have you believe it’s just the Russians or Chinese, but every government and every single special interest on the planet is now involved. They’re all on social media in one form or another, trying to push you in a specific direction that’s usually not in your best interests.

    It took me a while, but I’ve finally recognized how unthoughtful and treacherous social media is whenever some big news event hits. Important arguments quickly lose all nuance and devolve into binary talking points and agendas. People split into teams in a way that feels very much akin to the traditional, and now largely discredited, red/blue political theater. For covid-19, it felt like half of Twitter thought it was an extinction-level event, while the other half was convinced the whole thing was a hoax. In the aftermath of George Floyd, you were either cheering on the civil unrest, or wanted to send in the military. Increasingly, if you aren’t in one of two manufactured camps on any issue you’ll be shouted down and ostracized.  That’s not the kind of discussion I’m here for.

    As someone who’s found great value in Twitter over the years, I’ve become far more careful in how I use it and where to direct my attention and energy. It reminds me of Mos Eisley in Star Wars, a wretched hive of scum and villainy, but simultaneously a place you can connect with Han Solo and get a spaceship.

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    As we move forward, it’s going to feel like the world’s ending, and in some ways it will be. No the world isn’t literally ending, but a specific kind of world is ending, and it’ll be extremely difficult for many people to tell the difference as it’s happening. This will likely lead to many more episodes of mass insanity as professional manipulators take advantage of millions upon millions of disoriented people. Priority number one should be to stand guard at the gate of your mind during this time so as not to become a victim.

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    The best thing you can do from here on out is use your time and energy as productively as possible. We’re going to need builders, creators and inventors more than ever before, because we’re past the point of putting this thing back together. We’ll need to recreate, reimagine and rebuild, and all of this must spring from a point of consciousness in order to bring forth something that is both better and sustainable. Become more beautiful and resilient as others become ugly and unhinged. Focus on what’s within your capacity to control and always remember to resist the crazy.

    *  *  *

    Liberty Blitzkrieg is an ad-free website. If you enjoyed this post and my work in general, visit the Support Page where you can donate and contribute to my efforts.

  • MLB Commissioner Says 2020 Baseball Season Will Likely Be Canceled Amid Labor Dispute
    MLB Commissioner Says 2020 Baseball Season Will Likely Be Canceled Amid Labor Dispute

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 22:12

    Talk about a bitter irony. During an ESPN program entitled “the Return of Sports”, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred announced on Monday evening that the league is on the verge of scrapping the 2020 MLB season, a 180-degree reversal from his promise made last Wednesday that a season would “100%” happen, even if players had to perform in empty stadiums to TV-only audiences.

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    WSJ explains that an increasingly fraught labor dispute between the league, the owners and the player’s union has jeopardized an abbreviated 50-game season that had been set to start as soon as July 4th Weekend, getting a jump on other American sports. That jump could have maybe helped baseball recapture the interest of fans who have started to abandon the sport. Instead, the problem of how owners can profitably run a business without a critical pillar of revenue – ie ticket sales and sales of food, beverages and merchandise from live game attendfance – has reared its ugly head.

    “The owners are 100% committed to getting baseball back on the field,” Manfred said. “Unfortunately, I can’t tell you that I’m 100% certain that’s going to happen.”

    Restaurant owners across the US are shutting their doors en masse as millions find that the “COVID-19-friendly” arrangement of dining rooms at 50% capacity simply isn’t workable for most restaurants, though some have made it work by expanding their dining rooms to the surrounding street and parking lots.

    The problem with the MLB is that owners have been demanding more wage concessions from players. The players union has insisted that players won’t accept pay reductions that amount to more than 100% of the per-game pro-rated figure (ie a share of their salary that directly corresponds to the number of games played in 2020 vs. a normal season).

    But owners insist that they can’t profitably run the business and meet player’s salary demands, which the owners have characterized as unreasonable. In recent days, the player’s union has asked to see proof that the owners truly are facing economic hardship. Before asking for further pay reductions from the players, owners had settled on the 50-game figure, the shortest of several proposed scenarios, to try and maximize the more lucrative post-season and minimize losses from what will likely be a loss-leader of a regular season. The player’s union cut off talks after rejecting the league’s third payroll reduction offer. Now, Manfred is accusing the players of negotiating in bad faith.

    Then the players union accused the league of negotiating in bad faith “since the beginning”. The resulting acrimonious stalemate is threatening to cause ructions that could resonate beyond the 2020 season. The WSJ says both sides are now gearing up for a “prolonged labor battle” that could take years to resolve.

    And the two sides haven’t even started serious talks in safety protocols.

  • 18 Atlanta Cops Quit, LAPD Can't Pay $40 Million Overtime As Police Morale Hits "Rock Bottom"
    18 Atlanta Cops Quit, LAPD Can’t Pay $40 Million Overtime As Police Morale Hits “Rock Bottom”

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 22:10

    As protests against police brutality continue to rage across major US cities, cops across the country have reached their breaking point.

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    On Monday, the Atlanta Police Foundation some 19 Atlanta police officers have resigned amid the growing civil unrest. And according to Foundation CEO Dave Wilkinson, “Morale is at an all-time low.

    “We are now going into the third consecutive week of unabated protests in which officers have worked 12-hour shifts seven days per week. As you can imagine, their stress levels are exacerbated by physical and emotional exhaustion,” Wilkinson told CBS46.

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    The resignations come after an officer involved in the shooting death of 27-year-old Rayshard Brooks was fired, another was placed on administrative leave, and Atlanta Police Chief Erika Shields announced that she would be stepping down following the incident.

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    Atlanta police chief Erika Shields, who announced her resignation following the shooting death of Rayshard Brooks

    “The morale is bad right now. A lot of anger and frustration directed at our police officers,” said Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.

    As we noted over the weekend, Tulsa, Oklahoma police major Travis Yates told “Tucker Carlson Tonight” that police morale is at an all-time low, and that “Every department, every officer you talk to is looking to leave.” Yates published a column last Friday on the website LawOfficer.com titled “America, We Are Leaving,” in which he says “I wouldn’t wish this job on my worst enemy,” adding “I would never send anyone I cared about into the hell that this profession has become … I used to talk cops out of leaving the job. Now I’m encouraging them. It’s over, America. You finally did it You aren’t going to have to abolish the police, we won’t be around for it.”

    Making matters worse, Los Angeles Police Department officers have racked up to $40 million in overtime during the recent protests, according to FoxLA‘s Bill Melugin, whose sources tell him morale is at “rock bottom.”

    The officers will instead be given comp time.

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  • Democrats (Accidentally) Make The Case Against Teachers' Unions
    Democrats (Accidentally) Make The Case Against Teachers’ Unions

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 21:50

    Via IssuesInsights.com,

    In the wake of George Floyd’s death and the subsequent protests/riots calling for “defunding the police,” Democrats have started targeting police unions, saying they are obstacles to accountability and reform. Do they realize that the same can be said of teachers’ unions?

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    In a recent interview about reforming the police in his city, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey said that:

    The elephant in the room with regard to police reform is the police union… We do not have the ability to get rid of many of these officers that we know have done wrong in the past due to issues with both the contract and the arbitration associated with the union.”

    He said that it “sets up a system where we have difficulty both disciplining and terminating officers who have done wrong.”

    Minneapolis City Councilman Steve Fletcher said the police union “operates a little bit like a protection racket.”

    Frey and Fletcher won’t get an argument from us. Like other public-sector unions, police unions serve mainly to fatten salaries and benefits at taxpayer expense, make it harder to fire bad employees, and then dump campaign cash on the same people they are “negotiating” with.

    It was Franklin Roosevelt, of all people, who understood the inherent problem this arrangement poses, warning back in 1937 that “All Government employees should realize that the process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service.”

    A Duke Law Journal study looked at 178 police union contracts and found that “a substantial number … unreasonably interfere with or otherwise limit the effectiveness of mechanisms designed to hold police officers accountable for their actions.”

    The New York Times reports how police union membership has been climbing even as private-sector union membership has plunged, and that this gives unions “resources they can spend on campaigns and litigation to block reform. A single New York City police union has spent more than $1 million on state and local races since 2014.”

    “The greater the political pressure for reform, the more defiant the unions often are in resisting it — with few city officials, including liberal leaders, able to overcome their opposition,” the Times reports.

    No kidding.

    All this applies equally, if not more so, to teachers’ unions. Through the collective bargaining process, they’ve made it nearly impossible to fire a teacher, unless the school wants to spend roughly two years and $200,000 doing it, according to Stanford Professor Terry Moe.

    Teachers themselves admit that this is a problem. A survey by NPR and Ipsos looked at the views of K-12 teachers across America, with roughly half members of teachers’ unions and half non-unionized. Among the findings: 62% of organized teachers and 64% of non-unionized teachers agreed that the unions make it harder to fire bad teachers.

    A study by the Fordham Institute looking at what it takes to fire bad teachers found that “For the most part, state and local policies create a tortuous maze of paperwork, regulations, and directives. Teachers who receive years’ worth of ineffective ratings are given multiple chances for improvement and reevaluation, and a single procedural violation by the administration starts the process over again.”

    Teachers’ unions are the biggest and most relentless obstacle to education reforms such as charter schools and education savings accounts that would put more control in the hands of parents and break the union stranglehold over public education.

    But don’t expect Democrats to ever extend their reasons for hating police unions over to teachers, for the simple reason that teachers’ unions dump far more money on Democrats than police unions.

    While police unions give heavily to Democrats, they also support Republican candidates.

    As one House Democratic leadership aide told Axios,

    “Police unions are very different. They’re very conservative, a lot of them are even Republican. They don’t have the same progressive beliefs.”

    But teachers’ unions? In the past 28 years, they gave 96% of their campaign contributions to Democratic candidates. And they are huge contributors. In 2016, the American Federation of Teachers and the National Education Association gave $64 million in political donations.

    The result: student test scores have stagnated while per-pupil costs continue to climb. Millions of children remain stuck in failing schools. But hey, it’s mainly a real problem only for those in poor, minority neighborhoods. Why would Democrats care about that?

    Now that the public is opening its eyes to the harm done by one public-sector union, perhaps it will start to realize that being anti-teachers’ unions isn’t the same as being anti-education.

  • SoftBank Used 'Circular Financing' Scheme To Prop Up Struggling Vision Fund Companies
    SoftBank Used ‘Circular Financing’ Scheme To Prop Up Struggling Vision Fund Companies

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 21:30

    Just imagine for a second that you’re the treasurer or CFO of a mid-sized corporation, and your looking for somewhere to park money where you can earn a decent return without taking too much risk. One of the Credit Suisse corporate bankers comes to you one day with an idea. They call it “supply-chain financing”.

    The new strategy is essentially just another tool to help companies more “flexibility” in managing their short-term financing needs. It’s a fool-proof idea, the banker explains, because even if the companies default, there are all kinds of insurance policies and other safeguards in place to help make the lenders whole. You’re a

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    So you invest. A few years later, your banker calls with some bad news. Four of the 10 companies to which the fund was most heavily exposed imploded, and are likely headed for liquidation. It could be years before the lenders are made whole – if ever – and you and your fellow unlucky investors are simply along for the ride, but you can probably kiss that money goodbye.

    Several months later, you open the FT, only to discover that many of the other investors in the fund, as well as the advisor managing the fund, were all financially linked to the companies in which the fund was investing. The circular flow of money from the funds to the companies’ suppliers means that, for these other investors, any losses stemming from loan defaults have already been offset, since they’re basically paying themselves…with your money.

    Well, that appears to be what happened to some investors who weren’t too happy when they found out that several Credit Suisse ‘supply chain finance’ funds were essentially part of an elaborate shell game orchestrated by SoftBank to help inflate the value of Vision Fund portfolio companies by making them look more financially healthy than they actually were.

    Here’s more from the FT:

    SoftBank has quietly poured more than $500m into Credit Suisse investment funds that in turn made big bets on the debt of struggling start-ups backed by the Japanese technology conglomerate’s Vision Fund. SoftBank made the investment into the Swiss bank’s $7.5bn range of supply-chain finance funds, said three people familiar with the matter. Credit Suisse touts these funds to professional investors, such as corporate treasurers, as a safe place to park their cash in the short-term debts of seemingly diversified companies. Marketing documents sent to investors show that these funds have ramped up their exposure to several start-ups in the Japanese group’s $100bn Vision Fund over the past year. This has coincided with a disastrous stretch in which $18bn was wiped off the equity value of these technology bets. At the centre of the circular flow of funding is Greensill Capital, a Vision Fund-backed company that says it is “making finance fairer”. The London-based firm, which employs former British prime minister David Cameron as an adviser, selects all of the assets that go into the Credit Suisse funds under an agreement dating back to 2017.

    SoftBank effectively used these Credit Suisse funds – which were administered by Greensill Capital, an investment firm that, bizarrely, received a $1.5 billion slug of cash from VF. Aside from being run by an Aussie “paper billionaire” and advised by former Tory PM David Cameron, it’s not clear exactly what Greensill is supposed to be doing with all that money. But the company has managed to find itself enmeshed in all sorts of skullduggery uncovered by the intrepid reporters at the FT.

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    Four of the CS’s supply chain finance funds’ top investments were tied to Vision Fund portfolio companies.

    Marketing documents for Credit Suisse’s main supply-chain finance fund show that, at the end of March, four of its top 10 largest exposures were to Vision Fund companies, accounting for 15 per cent of its $5.2bn assets. This included companies hit hard in the coronavirus crisis, such as Indian hotel business Oyo and struggling car subscription start-up Fair. A separate document shows that Santa Monica-based Fair was also the second-largest exposure in Credit Suisse’s “high income” supply-chain finance fund at the end of last year.  In October, the car subscription company’s founder and chief executive resigned shortly after announcing plans to cut 40 per cent of its workforce. Audited accounts for both funds show they had no exposure to Fair at the end of that month, suggesting that they only began financing the company after its difficulties came to the fore.

    As the FT explains, investors (well, the investors who aren’t SoftBank) have pulled $1.5 billion from the Greensill-managed Credit Suisse funds as several of Greensill’s investments went sideways. Another interesting thing about Greensill: former British PM David Cameron is a paid advisor.

    But now, the firm has hit upon a new strategy that just might revive the sagging fortunes of the SoftBank-backed lender.

    Clients have withdrawn more than $1.5bn from these supply-chain finance funds this year, after a string of Greensill Capital’s clients defaulted on their debts in high-profile corporate collapses and accounting scandals, such as former FTSE 100 company NMC Health. Credit Suisse has told investors that a group of insurers and Greensill itself are covering losses in the funds. Australian financier Lex Greensill founded the company in 2011 and cemented his status as a paper billionaire last year when SoftBank’s Vision Fund invested $1.5bn into his eponymous firm. Greensill Capital specialises in supply-chain finance, where businesses borrow money to pay their suppliers. This week the British Business Bank approved Greensill to provide so-called “invoice finance” through the UK’s Coronavirus Large Business Interruption Loan scheme. “Making sure capital reaches the real economy, where it is needed most, is integral to Britain’s broader economic recovery,” Mr Greensill said of the decision.

    There’s nothing like extracting rents from government capital intended for the “real economy” to help keep a small, politically connected lender afloat.

  • A Tip For The "CHAZ Republic": Start Thinking Like Conservatives
    A Tip For The “CHAZ Republic”: Start Thinking Like Conservatives

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 21:10

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    Building a society is hard. Though people have a tendency to naturally adapt to forms of social order, these systems usually function best as small tribes, not massive collectives. Even when everyone agrees on particular goals, such as life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, they still often have conflicts over how to achieve those goals. Small groups have better chances, small voluntary groups are even more successful, as long as they follow a certain set of guidelines. Tribalism is the natural state of mankind, yet these days it’s treated like a taboo concept, especially by the political left.

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    Then, there is the ever present outlier, the 1%-5% percent of any given population that has inherent narcissistic and sociopathic qualities. These people make coming to an agreement on anything almost impossible. They hold the world hostage by sabotaging peace and resolution until they get exactly what they want. Sometimes what they want is nothing more that total chaos and destruction. In other cases they dream big, with notions of dominance and godhood.

    If you want to know what a society based on narcopathy actually looks like, that’s easy; just look at the communist movements in Stalinist Russia or Mao’s China, or how about the social justice crucibles within Facebook and Twitter? And, let’s not forget the latest narcopathic experiment in the “CHAZ Republic” autonomous region in Seattle.

    The mainstream media would have you believe that CHAZ is a burgeoning progressive Utopia where people live in harmony and free from the police. However, It did not take long before the “self sustaining” SJW nation of CHAZ became a laughing stock among web denizens, who have been tracking their bumbling exploits with equal parts glee and horror.

    When your society is immediately taken over by low budget weak talent rapper “warlords”, when you run out of food and have to order Dominos pizza delivered to your southern border daily and citizens beg for soy based vegan products to to be donated, and when people are attacked by a mob for “unauthorized graffiti” on the wrong turf after that mob already tore up the neighborhood, there’s certainly room for improvement.

    There are already some amazing hypocrisies flowing from CHAZ, including the fact that protesters quickly placed barriers and fencing all around the six block area to keep people they don’t like out. Apparently, Antifa and BLM are now proud advocates of building walls. But two of my favorite examples have happened in the past couple of days, including the man who slipped into CHAZ and started preaching biblical verses at them on the street. This incident should tell you half of what you need to now about the social justice cult.

    The man was immediately set upon by a crowd of angry leftists, had his life threatened, was attacked, robbed of his phone and beaten. In the video of the attack, you can clearly see one of the CHAZ citizens trying to put the man in a choke hold; I guess “I can’t breath…” was a temporary motto.

    What is so interesting about this situation to me is that the preacher was doing to them exactly what they do to others. Getting in their faces, arguing a message of belief, refusing to leave even though no one wants him there, and their reaction was to silence the man using violence. The puritanical fraud of Antifa and BLM has never been more obvious. When your mob resides in the media and on Twitter you can use cancel culture to terrorize people into silence. But, in the real world that stuff is meaningless, and so in order to deal with persistent people you either have to let them speak or use force.

    Welcome to the real world, CHAZ…

    The second incident was their attempt at planting a CHAZ food garden. I’ll let a photo of the garden speak for itself:

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    Now, this garden tells us the other half of the story about the types of people we are dealing with here. I was not present during the planning and formation of this garden, but I can imagine exactly what happened:

    The community met in a huge and largely disorganized herd to discuss plans and grievances. Being intellectuals through and through, they enjoy talking endlessly about what should be done while having no expertise in how to make things happen. Someone brought up the issue of food, realizing that if they are going to be “autonomous”, they will have to start producing necessities somehow. With no one among the hundreds or perhaps thousands of people at the meeting with any knowledge of how to grow food, they listened to the first person who claimed he or she could make it happen.

    That person then proceeded to the nearest Home Depot where they purchased 50 or so pre-grown plants, because growing from seed leaves more room for failure and they have no clue how to do it anyway. Then, they went to the park with a vision, a grand image in their minds of a vast garden of plenty that would feed the community for years.

    They then went to plant that garden and quickly realized the grass in the park would overwhelm and steal all the nutrients from their plants. So, they ask a handful of people to dig up the sod to get to the soil underneath. The young men, weak and pasty from years of soy-based products, tried with all their might to wrestle the sod from the ground, but to no avail. They realize digging up and tilling the ground is difficult.

    One of them chimes in “This blows, why do we have to do this? Isn’t this supposed to be anarchy? I don’t feel liberated right now, I feel sweaty and annoyed…”

    Another worker nods “Yeah, there must be an easier way. Let’s watch YouTube for some ideas….”

    They go forth and do so. And low, they discover an endless variety of instructional videos, half of which are made by idiots just like them. The video tells them to lay paper on top of the grass and then soil on top of the paper. They immediately take all the boxes they can find on the street, stealing the homes of many hobos. They lay out the boxes on top of the grass. They venture forth into the neighboring country of America, where potting soil is plentiful.

    They purchase the bounty with money borrowed from their parents and then spread 3 inches of soil over the cardboard, set the potted plants on top and viola! A garden any homesteader would be envious of! And then the homeless population shows up to demand their boxes back and reality sets in.

    I’m reminded of the book ‘Defiance’ by Nechama Tec, about the partisans that fled to the Belarussian forests to hide from the Nazi occupation during WWII (the movie ‘Defiance’ is based on the same book). The book describes how many of the partisans and Jewish people in the community were college students, professors and academics. These people realized after a few days that they had no useful skill sets and no knowledge of anything to do with survival. Once at the top of society, during the crisis they found themselves at the bottom of the totem pole. They were essentially useless, while working class farmers and mechanics took over as the leaders.

    I am also reminded of the fact that after the Bolshevik revolution, the communists ran off or killed most of the engineers, mechanics, farmers, and other producers within Russian society. The Bolsheviks only survived because Western corporations sent them experts to help them rebuild their manufacturing base (but that is a discussion for another time).

    The point is, if you do not know how to produce, you cannot build a society. It’s as simple as that. The residents of CHAZ appear to me to be iPhone entranced yuppies, mostly from upper-middle class families. When all you have done in your life is talk theory in college and all your knowledge comes from Reddit the idea of application must be highly alien. The thought of actually building a thing must be intergalactic in origin to them.

    When people have no understanding of how necessities work or how they are made, when they have no understanding of how food gets onto their plates, they usually have no respect for the people that make these things possible. And I have to warn you, people of CHAZ, most of the folks that make your lives possible have homes in so-called “fly-over country”, and they are conservative.

    Interestingly, I find that when people choose to live in a more self sufficient fashion or are forced to by circumstance, they have a habit of also shifting away from socialist fantasies. They abandon their first-world problems and notions of identity politics when they realize what REAL struggle actually looks like. And, they start to care about concepts like merit, and retaining the value of their work instead of giving away that value to people who don’t deserve it. They start acting like conservatives.

    So, I don’t necessarily want the CHAZ Republic to fail. In fact, I would love for these people to go through the struggles of trying to set up a real world self sustaining community or “tribe”. Why? Because there is a chance they will come out the other side appreciating the accomplishments of the conservative communities and individuals that already do these things on a regular basis. Maybe they will even convert to “right wing extremism”; that’s where all the real men are, and we have more fun. The left sucks at building things because their mentality is one of theory and never one of application. All they know is how to tear things down; they have no ability to create.

    And to show the people of CHAZ that I’m not all talk like they are, I’ll give them some tips on how to get started as producers. For example, the image below is what a REAL garden looks like:

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    I carved this new garden plot out of the woods this spring. It took about a month to do everything. Trees had to be cut and I had to remove the stumps by exposing the roots with a shovel and then cutting the tap roots with a reciprocating saw. The ground was leveled as best as possible using a bobcat, which I had to learn how to drive beforehand. I then built the raised garden beds, set them into the ground, and dug up and turned all the soil in the beds. Eight inches of fresh soil, a mixture of potting soil and topsoil, was then placed in the beds.

    The beds were surrounded by wood chips to help prevent weed growth. I planted seeds which I know from years of experience grow very well in the cooler climate of Montana. I also built a tall fence around the garden and then sprayed the area with garlic based deer repellent to prevent animals from trying to jump the fence and destroy the plants as they grow. Staple crops in my region are root based, such as potatoes, onions, carrots, etc.

    I plant using some seed and potatoes I saved from my crop the year before, but I still have to dip into seeds I purchased, too. Eventually I would like to plant completely from seed I save from my own crops.

    This process requires many seasons of experience to become proficient. It is not easy. It is not simple. It requires hard work, and sometimes you fail anyway. This means you need backup strategies. I have also become an avid hunter and I feel I have finally mastered tracking and stalking. Here is an image of the buck I harvested last hunting season:

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    And, while gardening and hunting can put food on the table, you may also need to produce items that people are willing to barter for to get products and services you can’t provide for yourself. Below is a cedar chest I just built by hand last week.  Products like this could be traded in an open market:

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    You see, a community is only as successful as the individuals within it. Each person should bring with them as many unique skill sets as they can that add to the strength of the tribe. Trade is vital, and the free market of barter must be allowed to thrive, otherwise there is no incentive for people to put in any effort and your society will die.

    I read today that the Republic of CHAZ is thinking about changing their name to “CHOP” in an effort to clarify that they do not intend to secede from the US. I suspect that this change of heart may be due to the fact that the residents and activists there are starting to realize how difficult this self sufficiency business is. When you declare you are building an autonomous zone, that is a lifetime commitment and one rife with struggle. When you declare you are merely protesting, you can walk away anytime you like and pretend you won the day.

    I hope the people of CHAZ don’t quit their goal of establishing a sufficient society, at least not yet. They’ve only been at it about a week, and that’s not enough time for them to really get a sense of the effort and skill that’s needed to become productive. Maybe they’ll exit the CHAZ with a newfound respect for the conservative ideal? Who knows…

    *  *  *

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  • Wealthy Chinese Rushing To Move Cash Abroad Ahead Of Yuan Weakness
    Wealthy Chinese Rushing To Move Cash Abroad Ahead Of Yuan Weakness

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 20:50

    Wealthy Chinese citizens are going to great lengths to move money out of the country amid worries over a weakening Yuan and growing trade tensions with the United States, according to the Nikkei Asian Review.

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    China caps foreign exchange to $50,000 per year, per person. For overseas investments, buyers typically use multi-member families to pool their funds and exceed the limit, or they will bring cash while traveling abroad – a strategy which has been put on hold during the pandemic travel bans.

    “There is no room for negotiation today,” a black-market currency dealer said when approached on West Nanjing Road, a bustling commercial strip in Shanghai, last week. “It’s going to be 7.2 yuan to the dollar.

    The official rate was 7.06 that day, but the man, who was a little past his prime, was defiant. At one point late last month, the yuan had sunk to 7.19 in overseas trading. He was confident in the direction of the weakening currency. 

    Oh, I can help you send money overseas too. I have a friend who can do that,” he said, before quickly leaving the scene. Police in the area are said to have become a bit stricter of late. –Nikkei Asian Review

    Not only are affluent Chinese setting up more dollar accounts in Hong Kong to send money overseas, interest in foreign real estate and insurance products are making a resurgence as the coronavirus pandemic has abated – or paused.

    One investment company is pitching real estate in Ireland – touting it as immune to deteriorating relations with the West. Returns? ” At the end, the executive showed a 1.32 million euro ($1.5 million) home with an expected return of nearly 3%,” according to the report.

    The talk was the latest of a series of webinars hosted since May by Juwai, a Chinese brokerage specializing in emigration, real estate and education opportunities abroad. Malaysian and Japanese properties have also been featured.

    Such locations as Malta and Cyprus are growing popular, according to another brokerage. –Nikkei Asian Review

    According to French bank Natixis, Chinese capital outflows amounted to just $1 billion in the first quarter of 2020 due to travel bans putting the brakes on the outbound movement of funds. Once the borders reopen, that is likely to increase.

    “The yuan weakened more than 10% in two years,” said one insurance broker in Hong Kong whose products are denominated in foreign currencies. “You need foreign currencies to protect your assets.”

    Meanwhile, rich Hong Kong residents are similarly beginning to shuffle cash overseas – opening offshore accounts, applying for new passports, and reducing their exposure to Hong Kong in a way that allows them to tap into their assets at a moment’s notice, according to Bloomberg.

    Private bankers say their clients accelerated contingency planning efforts after China announced last month it would impose controversial national security laws on Hong Kong. The legislation threatens to erode the former British colony’s judicial independence, provoke sanctions from the U.S. and revive street protests that battered the tourism and retail industries even before the coronavirus outbreak plunged the economy into its deepest recession on record. –Bloomberg

    What we’re basically seeing is a bit like a slow-moving train wreck,” said Richard Harris, CEO of Hong Kong-based Port Shelter Investment Management. “People who haven’t moved their money out may be tempted to think: ‘Well, maybe I should be moving my money out.’ That process is likely to continue.”

    That said, Bloomberg and Nikkei both acknowledge that we’re not seeing ‘widespread capital flight’ just yet – but the ground is being laid, and money is beginning to move. Bloomberg notes that Hong Kong bank deposits increased to a record in April, while the city’s currency has remained robust against the dollar, a sign of ‘persistent inflows.’

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    That said, Bloomberg also points out that “many Hong Kong entrepreneurs and high-earning professionals are sounding a more pessimistic note.”

    Sam, a senior investment banker in Hong Kong, has decided to leave the city. The 43-year-old is emigrating to Australia with his wife and two young boys in about three months, the second time he will have left Hong Kong during a period of political turmoil. Sam grew up in the city, but moved to Brisbane when he was 12 after his parents got spooked by China’s crackdown on protesters in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in 1989. He came back to Hong Kong 20 years ago for his career but now sees no upside to staying.

    “Things are looking bad and deteriorating,” he said. “We may as well pack our bags and move to Australia so that the kids can have a better environment growing up.”

    * * *

    Margaret Chau, a Hong Kong-based immigration program director for Goldmax Immigration Consulting Co., said inquiries at her firm have jumped about five-fold after news of the national security legislation. For now, most of her wealthy customers are more interested setting up an escape route than leaving right away.

    They see this as a backup plan,” Chau said.

    Kerry Goh, chief executive officer of multi-family office Kamet Capital in Singapore, said his clients have shifted from asking generic questions about moving out of Hong Kong to making detailed inquiries about everything from schools to visas and bank accounts.

    “What’s happened in Hong Kong has really sped up the timing of 2047,” Goh said, referring to the expiration date of China’s 50-year pledge to preserve Hong Kong’s autonomy after the handover from Britain. “As Hong Kong’s troubles shoot up, the benefits of Singapore have become more self-explanatory.” –Bloomberg

    “I could buy a much bigger flat in London, so why not?” said 34-year old Hong Kong executive, ‘Dennis,’ who says his family and many of their friends have begun moving cash out of the city. “I’m just trying to protect my money against any uncertainty.”

  • Bridgewater's Assets Plunged By $25 Billion During March, April Rout
    Bridgewater’s Assets Plunged By $25 Billion During March, April Rout

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 20:29

    At the end of January, when the news media was reporting of the first cases of an odd pneumonia-like diseases spreading in Wuhan, Ray Dalio appeared on CNBC during the annual billionaire pilgrimage to Davos, where he made a comment that would soon come back to haunt him: “You can’t jump into cash. Cash is trash.”

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    Little did Dalio know that just one month later the global economy would grind to a halt, the US stock market would suffer the biggest drop since the financial crisis, the Fed would announce the biggest ever bailout of corporate America and Congress would unleash a fiscal stimulus program the likes of which have never before been seen.

    Which in retrospect was a mistake, because with Dalio clearly oblivious to the imminent risks (not that he was alone in failing to anticipate the shock that the covid pandemic would unleash on the world) his hedge fund – Bridgewater – was not properly positioned for what was about to come. And it cost him dearly: according to Bloomberg, assets under management at Bridgewater, the world’s formerly largest hedge fund until various central banks took over that title, “suffered a 15% drop in assets under management during March and April in the wake of heavy losses at its flagship trading strategy.”

    Assets fell by $25 billion to $138 billion at the end of April from $163 billion at the end of February, according to a May 29 filing first noticed by Bloomberg.

    There was a silver lining: almost all of the decline was due to a drop in asset values and was performance-driven rather than client withdrawals, which means that as stocks rebounded in May and eventually turned positive on the year before the recent turbulence, Brigdewater should have recovered most of its P&L. Only that may not be the case, because whereas retail investors flooded the market around the time of the March lows using billions in government handouts to buy stocks, risk-parity funds, such as Bridgewater’s All Weather strategy, have been notoriously slow to relever judging by their record low beta to equities, and as a result, it would not surprise us if the world’s biggest hedge fund failed to recoup most of its March/April losses.

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    Things may be different at the more discretionary Bridgewater Pure Alpha II, the firm’s largest fund, which was down 20% through the first four months of this year, but may have followed the recovery closer. In mid-March Dalio admitted the challenges faced by his hedge fund, saying the fund was hit by the coronavirus at “the worst possible moment,” explaining that the firm had positioned its portfolios to profit from rising markets. At the time, Dalio assured investors that the firm would provide them with “liquidity rather than prohibit” withdrawals, although it wasn’t immediately clear if the fund was hit with mass redemptions. According to Bloomberg, the firm which offers monthly liquidity to clients, suffered several defections this year, including a decision by the Virginia Retirement System to pull $178 million from Bridgewater Pure Alpha II effective at the end of April.

    A Bloomberg source characterized redemptions this year as modest and consistent with levels from previous periods. However, in an indication of just how serious the AUM drop is, Bloomberg adds that Bridgewater is again accepting capital from people who have been on a waiting list and from existing clients who want to add to their investments in order to fill the hole from the drop in assets. The firm reopened its Pure Alpha strategy to new investors at the end of March for the first time since 2007.

     

  • Chinese Scientist, Escorted Out Of Canadian Biolab, Sent Deadly Viruses To Wuhan
    Chinese Scientist, Escorted Out Of Canadian Biolab, Sent Deadly Viruses To Wuhan

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 20:11

    We have a researcher who was removed by the RCMP from the highest security laboratory that Canada has for reasons that government is unwilling to disclose. The intelligence remains secret. But what we know is that before she was removed, she sent one of the deadliest viruses on Earth, and multiple varieties of it to maximize the genetic diversity and maximize what experimenters in China could do with it, to a laboratory in China that does dangerous gain of function experiments. And that has links to the Chinese military.” -Amir Attaran

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    A Chinese scientist who was escorted out of Canada’s only level-4 biolab over a possible “policy breach” shipped dealdy Ebola and Henipah viruses to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, according to the CBC, citing newly-released documents. The shipment is not related to COVID-19 or the pandemic.

    Dr. Xiangguo Qiu, her husband Keding Cheng and her Chinese students were removed from the Canadian lab after the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) asked the RCMP to investigate several months earlier. According to PHAC, Qiu’s eviction from the lab is not connected to the shipment.

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    Dr. Xiangguo Qiu accepting an award at the Governor General’s Innovation Awards at a ceremony at Rideau Hall in 2018. Qiu is a prominent virologist who helped develop ZMapp, a treatment for the deadly Ebola virus which killed more than 11,000 people in West Africa between 2014-2016. (CBC)

    “The administrative investigation is not related to the shipment of virus samples to China, said PHAC chief of media relations, Eric Morrissette.”

    “In response to a request from the Wuhan Institute of Virology for viral samples of Ebola and Henipah viruses, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) sent samples for the purpose of scientific research in 2019.”

    To recap, a Chinese scientist, her husband and her Chinese students were escorted out of Canada’s only Level-4 lab for reasons unknown, and which are not related to her shipment of deadly viruses to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

    “It is suspicious. It is alarming. It is potentially life-threatening,” said University of Ottawa law professor and epidemiologist, Amir Attaran.

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    Amir Attaran, professor in the Faculty of Law and the School of Epidemiology and Public Health at the University of Ottawa, is concerned about the shipment of dangerous viruses sent from Canada’s only level-4 lab to China. (CBC)

    While Canada doesn’t do ‘gain-of-function’ experiments – which are where natural pathogens are mutated in a lab and assessed to see if it has become more deadly or infectious, “The Wuhan lab does them and we have now supplied them with Ebola and Nipah viruses. It does not take a genius to understand that this is an unwise decision,” said Attaran.

    I am extremely unhappy to see that the Canadian government shared that genetic material.

    Attaran pointed to an Ebola study first published in December 2018, three months after Qiu began the process of exporting the viruses to China. The study involved researchers from the NML and University of Manitoba.

     

    The lead author, Hualei Wang, is involved with the Academy of Military Medical Sciences, a Chinese military medical research institute in Beijing. 

     

    All of this has led to conspiracy theories linking the novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19, Canada’s microbiology lab, and the lab in Wuhan. –CBC

    According to the report, the RCMP and PHAC have repeatedly denied any connections between the virus shipments and COVID-19.

    According to the newly-released documents, the following virus strains were shipped to the WIV (approximately 15 ml):

    • Ebola Makona (three different varieties)
    • Mayinga.
    • Kikwit.
    • Ivory Coast.
    • Bundibugyo.
    • Sudan Boniface.
    • Sudan Gulu.
    • MA-Ebov.
    • GP-Ebov.
    • GP-Sudan.
    • Hendra.
    • Nipah Malaysia.
    • Nipah Bangladesh.

    The documents also shed light on communications from the months leading up to the shipment – including confusion on how to package the viruses, along with a lack of decontamination of the package prior to its shipment, as well as concerns expressed by NML Director-General Matthew Gilmour to his superiors in Ottawa – particularly over where the package was going, what was in it, and whether its paperwork was in order. 

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    CBC News received hundreds of pages of documents through an Access to Information request, detailing a shipment of Ebola and Henipah viruses sent from the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg, to the Wuhan virology lab in China. (Karen Pauls/CBC News)

    In one email, Gilmour said Material Transfer Agreements would be required, “not generic ‘guarantees’ on the storage and usage.”

    He also asked David Safronetz, chief of special pathogens: “Good to know that you trust this group. How did we get connected with them?”

    Safronetz replied: “They are requesting material from us due to collaboration with Dr. Qiu.” CBC

    According to the report, the shipper of the viruses had originally planned to use inappropriate packaging, and only corrected the mistake when the WIV flagged the issue.

    “The only reason the correct packaging was used is because the Chinese wrote to them and said, ‘Aren’t you making a mistake here?’ If that had not happened, the scientists would have placed on an Air Canada flight, several of them actually, a deadly virus incorrectly packaged. That nearly happened,” said Attaran.

    Read the rest of the report here.

  • "Slave Owner": Thomas Jefferson Statue Torn Down, Defaced At Portland High School
    “Slave Owner”: Thomas Jefferson Statue Torn Down, Defaced At Portland High School

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 20:10

    A statue of Thomas Jefferson – the third US president, author of Declaration of Independence, who thought banks “are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies,” and whose portrait graced the doors of Bear Stearns during its historic implosion – was torn down Sunday night at a Portland, Oregon high school by a group of mostly white kids using ropes.

    According to Oregon Live, vandals pulled down the Jefferson High School statue of its namesake founding father, the starting point for a Sunday march organized by Rose City Justice to protest the killing of George Floyd.

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    At about 7:15 p.m., a crowd of more than 1,000 left the high school grounds to march to the park. By the time they returned, a statue of Thomas Jefferson had been pulled from its pedestal, apparently by a smaller group. The statue fell on its side and a dent was visible in the concrete where it fell.

    Earlier in the day, the statue’s pedestal had been defaced with graffiti that, among other things, identified Jefferson as a slave owner.

    Jefferson, the author of the Declaration of Independence that proclaimed “that all men are created equal,” publicly decried slavery — even as he enslaved hundreds of people and profited from their forced labor. –Oregon Live

    “We’re taking this city back,” said one organizer, adding “One school at a time. One racist statue at a time.”

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  • Putin Says Russia Will Soon Be Able To Counter "Invincible" Hypersonic Weapons
    Putin Says Russia Will Soon Be Able To Counter “Invincible” Hypersonic Weapons

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 02:45

    The thing about hypersonic missiles is they are supposed to be impossible to defend against. Since Russia began touting its experimental arsenal two years ago, the prospect of devastating weapons capable of traveling at Mach 5, or at least a mile per second, has kept Pentagon generals up at night.

    “The hypersonic threat is real, it is not imagination,” Air Force Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves told a D.C. defense conference in 2018. “Greaves comments come amid reports that assess Russia will be capable of fielding a hypersonic glide vehicle, a weapon that no country can defend against, by 2020,” a report at the time underscored alarmingly.

    The “indefensible” super weapon… but Russian President Vladimir Putin now says the Kremlin will soon have the technology to defend against it — this as more and more information has been slowly revealed concerning the US Department of Defense’s own multi-billion dollar hypersonics program. 

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    Putin made the new comments Sunday: 

    “It’s very likely that we will have means to combat hypersonic weapons by the time the world’s leading countries have such weapons,” he said according to the RIA news agency.

    Russian state media further said Putin referenced an emerging hypersonins ‘arms race’.

    The Russian president said that Russia’s rivals will soon be “surprised” when they learn the Russian armed forces will be able to “combat them”. Putin’s words, as conveyed by RT, were paraphrased as follows:

    Other nations are hastily designing their own hypersonic weapons – but by the time they are acquired, the Russian military will have learned how to shield the country from them, President Vladimir Putin said.

    The world’s leading military powers will eventually succeed in developing the ultra-fast weapons, President Vladimir Putin told Russia-1 TV. Russia, meanwhile, which seems to be leading the race for hypersonic dominance, won’t be caught off-guard once that happens, he pledged

    I think that we can pleasantly surprise our partners with the fact that when they get these weapons, we will have the means of combating them, with a high degree of probability.

    Prior US intelligence reports predicted that Russia could possess battle-ready hypersonic weapons by mid-2020; however, at this point it seems unlikely given recent apparent major setbacks in Russia’s testing hypersonics.

    Those prior reports also described “a Russian weapon the U.S. is currently unable to defend against…” which has previously undergone reported successful tests, namely the hypersonic glide missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, dubbed Avangard. Putin had previously called the Avangard “invincible”

    But assuming Putin’s newest remarks on hypersonics are anywhere near accurate — that Russia is close to being able to defend against hypersonic missiles — this would be a true game-changing advantage without parallel, whether it be China or America’s experimental programs. 

  • An Insight Into How Globalists Think, Courtesy Of The Trilateral Commission
    An Insight Into How Globalists Think, Courtesy Of The Trilateral Commission

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/15/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Steven Guinness,

    When the term ‘globalist‘ is used by alternative analysts, it usually encourages the mainstream press to denounce it as an anti-semitic trope which is concentrated on the belief that a select group of the jewish presuasion – dubbed ‘the elite‘ – control the world from the shadows. Failing that, the media will pigeonhole it as an abstract expression that has no defined definition.

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    The truth is that the reason the media does not want to engage with the concept of globalism is precisely because it can be defined to both institutions and the individuals that inhabit them.

    To illustrate this, let’s use the Trilateral Commission as a specific example.

    I last wrote about the Trilateral Commission in February when I discussed how the organisation was in the process of reforming itself. Back in the summer of 2019, they published a brochure called ‘Democracies Under Stress: Recreating the Trilateral Commission to Revitalize Our Democracies to Uphold the Rules-Based International Order‘. Within the brochure they spoke about ‘rediscovering their roots‘, ‘sharpening‘ their mission, and the need for ‘rejuvenating‘ their membership. All of this was predicated on a goal of upholding the ‘rules based global order‘ and meeting the ‘challenges‘ of the 21st century.

    It was around this time that the Trilateral Commission held its 2019 Plenary Meeting in Paris in the middle of June. During this event the North American Chairman of the Commission, Meghan O’Sullivan (who is also on the board of the Council on Foreign Relations), spent a few minutes talking about the institution and the role it intends to play from here on in.

    Here is a direct quote from O’Sullivan’s monologue, which can be viewed on the Trilateral Commission’s Youtube channel:

    We’re an organisation of people who have close ties to national governments, and often the ideas we debate in private inform our own perspectives and inform our discussions and deliberations and conversations with people in positions of power. That will still be true, but today we need to think about having an impact on the broader debate. We no longer live in a world where governments are the only ones that can influence the future. In fact, increasingly, we have to think about other entities as being the real engines of change, and be that corporations or universities or even individuals. We need to think about how to shape the conversation, how to bring those groups in, to have investment in and commitment to solutions.

    O’Sullivan concluded by saying:

    And we need to move ahead, whether or not we’re able to get our governments to agree with our prescriptions and recommendations.

    This is in concurrence with what the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said at the World Economic Forum in January 2020. When talking about his belief that global problems must be met with global solutions, Guterres commented:

    Sometimes we manage, sometimes we fail, but one thing you can be absolutely sure – we will not sit quietly expecting a consensus of the international community to solve the problems we have been discussing.

    The implication of O’Sullivan’s and Guterres’s words primarily suggest one thing, and that is that the organisations they represent are not going to wait forever for national legislatures to implement solutions for global crises. What they appear to be saying is that if government’s cannot be galvanised into action by ratifying into law initiatives like the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (also known as ‘The Green New Deal‘), then the only other option is to set about doing it ourselves.

    O’Sullivan muses that governments are no longer the only bodies that can ‘influence the future‘, and now is the moment where consideration must be given to ‘other entities as being the real engines of change‘. According to her this could be a mix of corporations, universities and individuals.

    For starters, corporations and universities are not accountable to the electorate. But institutions like the Trilateral Commission are heavily populated by figureheads from multi nationals and the education sector.

    Behind the scenes they are helping to formulate policies with the aim of them being carried through to national administrations for implementation. For an overview of how the Commission operates, I would recommend reading a copy of ‘Trilaterals Over Washington‘, a two volume book written in the late 1970s by researchers Antony Sutton and Patrick Wood. Here, the authors describe the composition of the commission and break down the power structure into three parts: The Operators, The Propagandists and Technicians, and the Power Holders. I briefly described each process in an article published back in 2018 (Order Out of Chaos: A Look at the Trilateral Commission).

    O’Sullivan clearly states that the Trilateral Commission has ‘close ties‘ to national governments, and that private debate within the Commission is informing their own perspectives as well as informing ‘our discussions and deliberations and conversations with people in positions of power‘. This will continue, but it is no longer enough. Now they want to start having a bigger impact on the ‘broader debate‘.

    By ‘broader debate‘, I would argue that O’Sullivan means you and I. The next logical step if you are the Trilateral Commission is to try and gain majority consent on the reforms they want to see enacted.

    How can they begin to do that? Let’s be clear that membership of the Commission is not permitted for politicians who are in government. When co-founder of the institution Zbigniew Brzezinski entered Jimmy Carter’s administration in 1977, he renounced his direct affiliation with the Commission. But that did not mean Brzezinski was no longer in broad agreement with the objectives of the group. Indeed, after Brzezinski left official office, he returned to the folds of the Commission.

    As I have pointed out before, the current leader of the opposition Labour Party in the UK, Keir Starmer, is an active member according to the June 2020 membership roster. This is a fact that is not mentioned on Starmer’s own website, his official parliamentary web page or in the national media.

    When he was campaigning to be Labour leader in February 2020, Starmer’s connection to the Commission was kept suppressed. Evidence of this came in mid February when his campaign team was forced to deny that they had illegally accessed Labour party membership data. The matter was raised on a live BBC leadership debate show hosted by Victoria Derbyshire, where one member of the studio audience suggested that the reason Starmer was not facing an official investigation was because of his membership of the Trilateral Commission. Starmer very quickly brushed off the claim, and Derbyshire just as quickly moved on to another member of the audience.

    This was an ideal opportunity to question Starmer on his involvement in the Commission – to ask what it is and how it may or may not influence his political beliefs and motivations. Instead, the BBC chose to ignore the issue.

    Starmer may be in opposition, but his membership is relevant because the Commission is informing debate and is seeking to influence national administrations to adopt globally devised initiatives. Starmer is part of that process.

    And it should be stressed again – out of 650 members of parliament, Starmer is the only one who was invited into the Commission (membership is by invitation only). Perhaps this is because of his legal prowess, as from 2008 to 2013 he was the Director of Public Prosecutions, the third most senior prosecutor for England and Wales.

    Should Starmer ever make it as far as Prime Minister, he will vacate his position at the Trilateral Commission. What he likely won’t relinquish is his loyalty to the Trilateral cause.

    At this point, a fair question to ask is what authority does the Trilateral Commission possess that allows them to believe that they could bypass national governments in pursuit of global objectives? After all, this is a commission that is not elected but has within its ranks men and women who are elected at the national level. It is a commission that is dominated by corporate interests and is privately funded. At a special event in 1998 to mark 25 years of the Trilateral Commission, a list of financial supporters from 1973 to 1998 was published to show names such as Exxon Corporation, AT&T Foundation, The Coca-Cola Company, The First National Bank of Chicago, Morgan Stanley & Co and Goldman Sachs. A list for the present day is not readily available.

    From analysing the Commission’s communications, my concern is that the language has now shifted from an emphasis on national administrations to implement reforms to the global institutions seeking to do it themselves. This is global governance in all but name.

    With the onset of Covid-19, the rhetoric has intensified substantially on the necessity for governments to rally behind initiatives like the Sustainable Development Goals and enforce them into national law. And if they don’t? Well, we will seek to do it without you is the message. As Meghan O’Sullivan admits, ‘we need to move ahead, whether or not we’re able to get our governments to agree with our prescriptions and recommendations.

  • Parry: Beware The Hijacking Of US Protests Into A "Color Revolution"
    Parry: Beware The Hijacking Of US Protests Into A “Color Revolution”

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Max Parry via The Unz Review,

    The May 25th killing of George Floyd, an unarmed African-American man, at the hands of a white police officer in Minneapolis, Minnesota shocked the world and set off mass protests against racism and police brutality in dozens of cities from the mid-western United States to the European Union, all in the midst of a global pandemic. In the Twin Cities, what began as spontaneous, peaceful demonstrations against the local police quickly transformed into vandalism, arson and looting after the use of rubber bullets and chemical irritants by law enforcement against the protesters, while the initial incitement for the riots was likely the work of apparent agent provocateursamong the marchers. Within days, the unrest had spread to cities across the country including the nation’s capital, with U.S. President Donald Trump threatening to invoke the slavery-era Insurrection Act of 1807 to deploy the military and National Guard on American soil, federal powers not used since the 1992 Los Angeles riots following the Rodney King case.

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    The debate over the catalyst for the uprising into its period of lawlessness has drawn a range of theories. The suspicious placement of pallets of bricks in the proximity of numerous protest sites have spurred rumors of sabotage by everything from white supremacist groups to “Antifa” to law enforcement itself. Predictably, liberal hawks such as Susan Rice, the former National Security Advisor in the Obama administration, made ludicrous assertions suggesting “Russian agents” were behind the unrest, a continuation of the narrative that the Kremlin has been behind inflaming racial tensions in the U.S. that began during the 2016 election. While Democrats like Rice and Senator Kamala Harris of California have revived an old trope dating back to the Civil Rights movement of Moscow exploiting racial divisions in the U.S., Trump and the GOP have similarly resurrected the ‘outside agitators’ myth attributed to segregationists of the same era. Hypocritically, many of those claiming to be in support of the protests have denounced the latter theory while endorsing the former, when both equally show contempt for the legitimate grievances of the demonstrators and deny their agency. However, both false notions overlook the more likely hidden factors at play attempting to hijack the movement for its own purposes.

    Believe it or not, there could be a kernel of truth in accusations coming mostly from the political right as to the possible role of the notorious liberal billionaire investor and “philanthropist” George Soros and his Open Society Foundation (OSF). Ironically, if any of the right-wing figures of whom Soros is a favorite target were aware of his instrumental role in the fall of communism staging the various CIA-backed protest movements in Eastern Europe that toppled socialist governments, he would likely not be such a subject of their derision. The Hungarian business magnate’s institute, like other NGOs involved in U.S. regime change operations such as the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), is largely a front for the CIA to shield itself while destabilizing U.S. adversaries, the spy agency’s preferred modus operandi since the exposure of its illicit activities in previous decades by the Rockefeller Commission and Church Committee in the 1970s. In the post-Soviet world, nations across Central Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and beyond have become well acquainted with the political disruptions of the international financier and his network. In particular, governments that have leaned toward warm relations with Moscow during the incumbency of President Vladimir Putin have found themselves the victims of his machinations.

    Under Putin’s predecessor Boris Yeltsin, Soros made a killing off the mass privatization of the former state-run assets in the Eastern Bloc, as journalist Naomi Klein explained in The Shock Doctrine:

    “George Soros’s philanthropic work in Eastern Europe — including his funding of (Harvard economist and economic advisor Jeffrey) Sachs’s travels through the region — has not been immune to controversy. There is no doubt that Soros was committed to the cause of democratization in the Eastern Bloc, but he also had clear economic interests in the kind of economic reform accompanying that democratization. As the world’s most powerful currency trader, he stood to benefit greatly when countries implemented convertible currencies and lift capital controls, and when state companies were put on the auction block, he was one of the potential buyers.”

    In contrast, the Putin administration over a period of two decades has since restored the Russian economy through the re-nationalization of its oil and gas industry. Its two energy giants, Gazprom and Rosneft, are state-controlled companies serving as the basis of the state machinery‘s reassertion of control over the Russian financial system, a move that has gotten Mr. Putin branded a “dictator” by the West. As a result, most of the notorious Russian oligarchs enriched overnight during the extreme free market policies of the 1990s have since left the country, now that such rapid accumulation of wealth to the rest of the nation’s detriment is no longer permitted. While economic inequality in Russia may persist, it is nowhere near that of the Yeltsin era where the average life expectancy was reduced by a full decade.

    In the last decade, the United States has gotten its own taste of the incitement and agitations that have previously fallen upon governments across the global south. Instead, domestically the CIA cutouts in the non-profit industrial complex have played a pivotal counterrevolutionary role in co-opting and ultimately derailing such uprisings meant to bring systemic change to the U.S. political system. In late 2011, the Occupy Wall Street movement emerged at Zuccotti Park in New York City’s financial district against the deepening global economic inequality following the Great Recession and the protests quickly spread to other cities and continents. In just a few months, the sit-in was expelled from Lower Manhattan and the anti-capitalist movement itself largely was diverted towards reformism and away from its original radical intentions. It was also revealed the origins of OWS and its marketing campaign were traced to Adbusters, a media foundation that was the recipient of grants from the Democratic Party-connected Tides Foundation, a progressive policy center which receives significant endowments from none other than George Soros and the OSF.

    Emerging just two years later, the roots of Black Lives Matter were not just in community organizing but partially took inspiration from the Occupy movement. Unfortunately, the similarities between them were not limited to a shared lack of clarity in their demands but facing the same dilemma of being absorbed into the system. While OWS was quickly suppressed after hopeful beginnings, the BLM leadership became career-oriented apparatchiks of the Democratic Party and left grass-roots organizing behind. Through the non-profit industrial complex, the Democratic Party has mastered bringing various social movements under its management on behalf of Wall Street in order to funnel public funds into private control through various foundations. Along with the Ford Foundation which has given BLM enormous $100 million grants, Soros and the OSF have been one of the principal offenders. Still, many who correctly identify right-wing protests such as the Tea Party movement and the recent ‘anti-lockdown’ demonstrations as the work of astro-turfing by the Koch Brothers and Heritage Foundation seldom apply the same scrutiny to seemingly authentic progressive movements assimilated by corporate America.

    One figure who mysteriously appeared on the scene in the early days of OWS connected to Soros was the Serbian political activist Srđa Popović, the founder of Otpor! (“resistance” in Serbian) and the Center for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies (CANVAS) political organizations which led the protests in 2000 which ousted the democratically-elected President of Serbia, Slobodan Milošević, known as the “Bulldozer Revolution.” Not long after Popović’s consulting of activists in Zuccotti Park, Wikileaks documents revealed the Belgrade-born organizer’s significant ties to U.S. intelligence through the global intelligence platform Stratfor (known as the “shadow CIA”), exposing the real motives behind his involvement in U.S. politics of outwardly supporting OWS while trying to sabotage the popular movement. Since their role as instruments of U.S. regime change in Serbia, Otpor! and CANVAS have received financial support from CIA intermediaries such as the NED, OSF, Freedom House and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), as well as the Boston-based Albert Einstein Institute founded by the American political scientist, Gene Sharp.

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    Srđa Popović

    Despite ostensibly professing to use the same civil disobedience methods of Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King, Jr., Gene Sharp‘s manual for “non-violent resistance” entitled From Dictatorship to Democracy has been the blueprint used by political organizations around the world that have only served the interests of Western imperialism. Beginning with the Bulldozer Revolution in Serbia, the successful formula which ousted Milošević spread to other Central Asian and Eastern European nations overthrowing governments which resisted NATO expansion and the European Union’s draconian austerity in favor of economic ties with Moscow. These were widely referred to in the media as ‘Color Revolutions’ and included the 2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia, the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine and its 2014 Maidan coup d’état follow-up, as well as the 2005 Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan, among others.

    Subsequently, Srđa Popović and CANVAS also lent their expertise in Egypt during the predecessor to its Arab Spring in the April 6 Youth Movement which appropriated Otpor!’s raised fist logo as its emblem. In preparation for the organization of anti-government demonstrations, the activists poured over Gene Sharp’s work in coordination with Otpor! whose fingerprints can be found all over the Arab Spring uprisings which began as protests to remove unpopular leaders in Egypt and Tunisia but were carefully reeled in to preserve the despotic Western-friendly systems that had put them to power initially. Where Sharp’s “non-violent” template failed, countries with U.S. adversaries in power such as Libya and Syria saw their protests rapidly morph into a resurgence of Al-Qaeda and a terrorist proxy war with catastrophic consequences. This recipe has also been exported to Latin America in attempts to remove the Bolivarian government in Venezuela, with self-declared ‘interim president’ and opposition leader Juan Guaido having received training from CANVAS.

    While the right seems to have a bizarre misconception that the parasitic hedge fund tycoon is somehow a communist, there is an equal misunderstanding on the pseudo-left where it has become a recurring joke and subject of mockery to naively deny Soros’s undeniable influence on world affairs and domestic protest movements. Less certain, however, are the claims from conservatives that Soros is a supporter of “Antifa” which Trump wants to designate as a domestic terrorist organization, a dangerous premise given the movement consists of a very loose-knit and decentralized network of activists and hardly comprises a real organization. Various autonomous chapters and groups across the U.S. may self-identify as such, but there is no single official party or formal organization with any leadership hierarchy. While the original Antifa movement in the 1930s Weimar Republic was part of the Communist Party of Germany (KPD), the current manifestation in the U.S. has a synonymous association with black bloc anarchism (even inverting the colors of the original red and black flag), though it is really made up of a variety of amateurish political tendencies.

    Amidst the ongoing nationwide George Floyd protests, the demonstrations in Seattle, Washington culminated in the establishment of a self-declared “autonomous zone” by activists in the Northwestern city’s Capitol Hill neighborhood — known as the Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone (CHAZ). In response, Trump doubled down on his threats to quash protests with the use of the military while blaming “anarchists” in “Antifa” for the unrecognized commune occupying six city blocks around an abandoned police precinct. Anyone who has paid close attention to the war in Syria for the last nine years will find this highly ironic, given the U.S. military support for another infamous “autonomous zone” of Kurdish nationalists in Northern Syria’s Rojava federation. The Kurdish sub-region and de facto self-governing territory purports to be a “libertarian socialist direct democracy” style of government and has been the subject of romanticized praise by the Western pseudo-left despite the fact that the autonomous administration’s paramilitary wing, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), were until recently a cat’s paw for American imperialism as part of the U.S.-founded coalition, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

    Not coincidentally, many of those who use the Antifa vexillum are enthusiastic supporters of and even volunteer mercenaries fighting with the YPG/SDF in an ‘International Freedom Battalion’ which claims to be the inheritors of the legacy of the International Brigades which volunteered to defend the Spanish Republic from fascism in the Spanish Civil War. Unfortunately, these cosplayers forgot that the original International Brigades were set up by the Communist International, not the Pentagon. Meanwhile, despite their purported “anti-fascism”, there are no such conscripts to be found defending the Donetsk or Luhansk People’s Republics of eastern Ukraine against literal Nazis in the War in Donbass where the real front line against fascism has been. Instead, they fight alongside a Zionist and imperial proxy to help establish an ethno-nation state while the U.S. loots Syria’s oil.

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    Prior to Trump’s decision last October to withdraw troops from northeastern Syria which preceded a Turkish invasion, Ankara and the U.S. repeatedly butted heads over Washington’s decision to incorporate the Kurds into the SDF, since the YPG is widely acknowledged an off-shoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), the militant and cult-like political group regarded as a terrorist organization that has been at war with Turkey for over forty years. It is also no secret that jailed PKK founder Abdullah Öcalan’s theories of “democratic confederalism” are heavily influenced by the pro-Zionist Jewish-American anarchist theorist, Murray Bookchin. So when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told Trump that there were links between the U.S. protests and the PKK, there was a tiny but core accuracy in his exaggerated claim. As Malcolm X said, “chickens coming home to roost never did make me sad.”

    The George Floyd protests, like previous uprisings in Ferguson and Baltimore, certainly began spontaneously, nor does any of this discount the legitimate issue of ending the militarization of U.S. law enforcement which disproportionately victimizes black Americans. Nevertheless, time and again we have seen how bona fide social movements become political footballs or quickly go to their graves. Like BLM, it is practically inevitable the protests will become a partisan tool for the Democratic Party in the coming 2020 election when it has no concrete political articulations of its own, even if it does bring substantive change to domestic policing. In January, Trump was impeached for temporarily withholding security aid to the Ukraine and Democrats advocated his removal because he is regarded as insufficiently hawkish toward Moscow. Since 2016, they have actively diverted all opposition to Trump into their own reactionary anti-Russia campaign and soft-coup attempt in the interests of the military- intelligence community, a shared agenda with Soros. When all of corporate America, the media, and even the NED have publicly declared their support for a movement, it is no longer just about its original cause of getting justice for Mr. Floyd, whose funeral became a virtual campaign rally for Trump’s opponent, Joe Biden. It is too early to say determinedly whether what is taking place in the U.S. is indeed a ‘Color Revolution’, but by the time we realize it may too late.

  • How Much Do US Cities Spend On Policing?
    How Much Do US Cities Spend On Policing?

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 23:00

    The state of America’s policing has come under scrutiny after George Floyd’s shocking death in Minneapolis. That resulted in massive protests all over the country with people demanding reform and an end to police brutality and racism. It has created a debate about “defunding” the police and redirecting more money into community outreach programs.

    New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio recently said he would make cuts to the NYPD’s $6 billion budget and set funding aside for communities and his view is at odds with President Trump. On Monday, Trump said that “there won’t be defunding, there won’t be dismantling of our police, and there is not going to be any disbanding of our police.”

    As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, over the past 30 years, the U.S. has dramatically increased police spending while funding has fallen for mental health services, community outreach programs, housing subsidies and food benefits programs for disadvantaged low-income communities that have to deal with high levels of criminalityData from The Center for Popular Democracy, Law for Black Lives and the Black Youth Project 100 estimates that the U.S. spends a collective $100 billion on policing per year and another $80 billion on incarceration. It also shows the amount spent on policing per person in a selection of major cities which ranges from $381 to $772.

    Well before George Floyd lost his life, an earlier version of the report revealed serious issues about policing in Minneapolis, stating that “racial disparities there are especially stark” and that “black and indigenous people were more than eight and-a-half times more likely than whites to be arrested for low-level offenses”. It also said that “black people comprise 19 percent of the Minneapolis population but account for 59 percent of low-level arrests. Whites, by contrast, comprise 64 percent of the population but only 23 percent of low-level arrests”. In 2017, Minneapolis spent $408 per person on its police force. Unfortunately, that figure was not available for 2020, unlike the other cities listed on this infographic.

    Infographic: Police Spending Per Capita In Major U.S. Cities | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    After Freddie Gray was killed by police officers in 2015, Baltimore also received national attention for its heavy-handed policing and levels of racial division. Back in 2017, the report noted that its police department was under scrutiny due to years of corruption, misconduct and brutality that eroded trust with communities of color. Out of the city’s operating budget more than a quarter of funding is allocated to policing, some $536 million. Spending on policing per person is the highest of any major city in U.S. at $904. By comparison the figure in New York was $672 while it was $436 in Los Angeles.

    The report notes that police funding levels increased in all cities analyzed in the 2017 report (though 2020 data was not available for Minneapolis) and the figures for new cities included in the analysis show that some reform has occurred. Milwaukee is noted as an example where grassroots groups successfully demanded police divestment, which has happened, and the police department’s budget is now lower than in previous years.

    Infographic: How Much Do U.S. Cities Spend On Policing? | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The same old trends are evident as in previous years in most major cities, however with the NYPD’s $5.6 billion budget accounting for 7.7 percent of New York City’s general fund. A general fund is used by a city to support municipal services like law enforcement, the fire department and parks, as well as planning, community development and administrative support services.

    The share of the general fund is far higher in other cities such as Los Angeles. The LAPD has a 2020 budget of $1.7 billion according to the report and that accounts for over a quarter of the general fund. The share is even higher in Chicago at 37 percent with the total police budget approximately $1.68 billion. In Minneapolis, the city where George Floyd lost his life, the 2017 data shows that the police budget accounted for 35.8 percent of the general fund, totalling $163 million.

  • "You Can't Rally But We Can Protest!"
    “You Can’t Rally But We Can Protest!”

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 22:30

    Authored by Stephen Miller via The Spectator,

    The staggering hypocrisy of the Democrats over COVID-19…

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    Are you ready for the second blame wave? As the country braces itself for an inevitable repeat surge in COVID-19 infections, we’re told red-state governors ‘opened too soon’. The next outbreak, we can be sure, will be something to do with the fact the President decided to resume his political rallies, approximately two weeks from now.

    What nobody says is that individual or social behavior is the cause. It can’t possibly be the thousands of people closely together marching down city streets yelling and chanting, some with masks, some not. The guidelines fell completely by the wayside for the Democrats and much of network cable news.

    In the middle of May, DC Mayor Muriel Bowser extended her lockdown order through to the June 8. Two days prior to her own lockdown order was to be reviewed, on June 6, she encouraged mass gatherings of protests, in a tweet saying ‘Let’s all meet here soon #BlackLivesMatter’, with a photo showing off her big block yellow letters painted down a DC street. In a press release about a possible spike in coronavirus cases in her city, after two weeks of protests she encouraged herself, Bowser announced that ‘DC Health has confirmed that a new peak was detected in the data, resetting the Districts Phase One count to nine days of sustained decrease.’

    Florida congressswoman Val Demings, who features on the shortlist to be Joe Biden’s VP nominee, tweeted on June 8 that she had joined a ‘Healing and Hope Rally last night to speak with our community as America grieves.’ Two days later she scolded the President: planning to hold ‘mass rallies in Florida and elsewhere as we experience a resurgence in COVID cases is irresponsible and selfish’.

    If there’s a gaping lack of curiosity about this blatantly hypocritical behavior from Democratic officials, it’s because members of the media are not only purposely ignoring it, but partaking in the same double-standard.

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    Showtime host Alex Wagner, in response to the Trump campaign’s rally announcement in Oklahoma tweeted, ‘Someone should tell him there’s a pandemic spreading across the United States.’ Several days earlier, she had praised Sen. Elizabeth Warren for joining protests in DC. ‘Can’t stop won’t stop,’ she trilled.

    Politico’s Jake Sherman finger-wagged Vice President Pence for visiting a campaign office without social distancing, but he himself joined in protests at the Capitol.

    Democratic strategist and former Hillary Clinton cheerleader Adam Parkhomenko helped organize supplies such as lunch and water stands for a DC protest where he encouraged ‘a million’ people to come join. That didn’t stop him from tweeting ‘A thousand Americans are dying a day from the pandemic, and the president of the United States is ignoring it.’

    Either the funniest or most egregious behavior came from the Grim Reaper himself. Remember Daniel Uhlfelder? He is the Florida attorney who donned a Grim Reaper costume and harassed Florida beach goers with body bags, he secured through funds raised from Act Blue. Daniel was so serious about the deadly virus spreading through a state run by a Republican governor that he turned his novelty act into a traveling show. But those plans were apparently put on hold as he himself joined in and encouraged protests, as he tweeted on June 7, ‘We are here in the Florida panhandle in Deep South where hundreds have turned out for peaceful protest. No peace. No justice.’ Also, no virus, it seems.

    These people want you to believe that this pandemic is caused by some magical woke virus, one which somehow skips those who have the right politics. What it actually does is raise the suspicion that Democrats and progressives have wanted to keep the economy shut down and people at home as long as possible to affect the outcome of the November election. Your job and your family or your church (also protected by the First Amendment) are not important. Our joining in large crowds to protest is.

    There is almost assuredly going to be a spike in COVID cases and it will also almost assuredly be put on red-state governors and the President holding rallies. But Democratic activists and politicians themselves created this situation. They encouraged the world to disregard lockdown and people will now follow their lead, no matter how much they are scolded by the media. These people think we’re all stupid. We’re not.

  • China's "V-Shaped" Recovery Stalls As Big Three Macro Signals Disappoint
    China’s “V-Shaped” Recovery Stalls As Big Three Macro Signals Disappoint

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 22:07

    As a second wave of COVID-19 begins to spread in both Beijing and Guangzhou (with a warning from a Vice Premier of a high risk that the outbreak spreads and new figures show Beijing reported 36 new cases on June 14), China’s miraculous “V-shaped” recovery was expected to continue.

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    Early in the evening, China home prices beat expectations rising at a 0.42% MoM clip – the best since Oct 2019…because who wouldn’t want to be bidding up prices in China right now…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Earlier in the month, the manufacturing PMIs suggested some further stabilization, though not much of a strengthening last month. Exports dropped, though by less than anticipated, at -3.3% year-on-year, while imports tumbled hard, with a 16.7% slide.

    And then the big China data dump hit:

    • Industrial Production -2.8% YTD YoY (slightly better than the expected 3% drop and an improvement on last last month)

    • Retail Sales -13.5% YTD YoY (matched expectations and improved from the 16.2% drop last month)

    • Fixed Asset Investment -6.3% YTD YoY (worse than the expected 6.0% drop but an improvement over last month)

    • Property Investment -0.3% YTD YoY (better than the 0.8% drop expected and a big improvement from the 3.3% drop last month)

    • Surveyed Jobless Rate 5.9% (as expected and better than the 6.0% last month)

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    However, on a straight YoY basis – all three of the “big” ones missed:

    • China Retail Sales -2.8% Y/Y, Exp. -2.3%

    • Fixed Investment -6.3% Y/Y, Exp. -6.0%

    • Industrial Output 4.4% Y/Y, Exp. 5.0%

    The immediate takeaway perhaps is that China’s economy continues to improve (after the crushing Q1 blow due to COVID-19 containment-driven shutdowns) but that pace of recovery may not be living up to expectations.

    And as Chris Anstey, Bloomberg’s Managing Editor, Asia Cross-Asset Markets, warned, it’s “hard to see how GDP comes in positive for the second quarter, now that we’ve got two of the three months worth of data.”

    Of course, none of this should be a massive surprise as, once again, China has injected unprecedented amounts of credit into the economy to keep the mirage of growth alive and maintain a semblance of social cohesion…

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    Source: Bloomberg

    The question is – what happens when the second wave (or third) hit and even more so-called “stimulus” is needed?

  • Futures Tumble Below 3,000 After China Warns Of "High Virus Resurgence Risk"
    Futures Tumble Below 3,000 After China Warns Of “High Virus Resurgence Risk”

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 21:30

    On a day when more than 20 US states are seeing a pick-up in cases, Tokyo reported a jump over the weekend and a fresh outbreak in Beijing prompted officials to close a market there, futures are tumbling, with Eminis down more than 40 points to 2,980 the lowest level since the start of June.

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    The drop follows renewed fears of a second coronavirus wave which massacred shares on Thursday before a modest rebound Friday.

    But the trigger for tonight’s drop appears to have come out of China, which reported 49 new cases of COVID19 in China on June 14, including 10 imported cases and 39 local cases. 36 local cases were diagnosed in Beijing and 3 in Hebei province, according to the National Health Commission, with China’s Vice Premier Sun Chunlan spooking traders saying that the risks are high for Beijing’s coronavirus resurgence to spread as all cases are related to Xinfadi wholesale market where a large population has visited, according to Xinhua.

    As reported yesterday, Beijing shut a major food market and imposed lockdown restrictions on residential areas nearby after dozens of people associated with the wholesale market were tested positive for coronavirus.

    Additionally, the Global Times reported that 17 out of 19 new imported coronavirus cases registered on Saturday came from South Asia, Chinese health authorities said Sunday, a sharp spike which analysts said indicates that loosening restrictions and worsening contagion in the region poses a danger to the country’s domestic situation. The 17 patients were reported in South China’s Guangdong Province, with 14 flying from Bangladesh and three from India.

    The 14 patients and the three asymptomatic carriers arrived in Guangzhou on China Southern Airlines flight CZ392 from Dhaka to Guangzhou on Thursday, which prompted the Chinese aviation regulator to suspend the route for four weeks from June 22 in accordance with the latest policy.

    “The risk is that, globally, we get a second wave,” said Chris Iggo, the chief investment officer for core investments at AXA Investment Managers, quoted by Bloomberg. “Now is the time to have that long-duration bond exposure in the portfolio.”

    In a few minutes, the market’s mood may shift again after China reports key economic data for May, expected to show a continued improvement after the world’s second-largest economy. Officials moved a press briefing online due to the latest virus outbreak in Beijing.

    In FX, the yen edged up 0.1% to 107.29 per dollar; the offshore yuan slipped 0.2% to 7.0890 per dollar, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%.

    The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell about three basis points to 0.67%, and is again approaching the April lows of 0.54% after printing shy of 1% two weeks ago amid a burst of reopening hopes that sent value stocks surging.

  • A Shocking Eye-Witness Account Of What's Really Happening During The Seattle Riots
    A Shocking Eye-Witness Account Of What’s Really Happening During The Seattle Riots

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 21:30

    Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

    social media post (which has been removed) by a member of the Washington National Guard has been shared more than 7000 times since it was written on June 12th. It’s a true education in mob mentality.

    As Toby Cowern says, “Look how much ‘othering’ has been done already. Once that’s happening there’s a big problem.”

    He’s right – and here’s the shocking truth about what’s really going on in Seattle from a person who had a front-row ticket to the mayhem.

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    An eye-witness account

    I previously said I had a lot to say regarding my experiences while in downtown Seattle [Incoming VERY long post…]. When I came home, I was exhausted, angry, and saddened by what I had experienced. I said I needed to share what happened, but I also said I needed some time to rest and reflect. My unit was activated for 12 days. We worked long hours but we continued to stay dedicated to the state and the mission. I can’t stop that now. I’ve been up all night, trying my best to put into words what I experienced and observed. This is too important to wait. I rarely post on social media, but I’m making this post, hoping it reaches those that want to know the truth. I can imagine, given the current environment, this post may cause some controversy. That is not my intention what-so-ever. I agree the excessive use of force in Minnesota was inexcusable but reacting with hatred and violence is contradictory to the message of peace and change. Either way, people need to know what’s actually happening behind the guise of this “movement.” Whether localized or nationalized, what I witnessed NEEDS TO STOP!

    Activation:

    I was working nights and the day of my phone call, I had difficulties sleeping that morning. I had a lot on my mind, and I decided I was going to stay up and do some yard work. As I was preparing to go outside, I started receiving text messages and phone calls. “We’ve been activated! Hit time at the armory is 1700!” I looked at my watch and I had maybe an hour before hit time. “Well, I’m going to be late…” I thought. I immediately responded to the text messages and phone calls, telling them I would be there as soon as possible. Why was I going to be late?

    My unit is in Western Washington and I live in Southeastern Washington… to drive, at a pace much faster than the speed limit, I’d be lucky to make it in three hours… Without hesitation, I grabbed all my staged military gear and threw it into the back of my vehicle. I figured, “Heck, if it’s an emergency, they’re not going to have time to put out a packing list… so, I mise well bring everything.” As I was throwing military gear into my vehicle, I received text messages telling me to pack for at least a week. “Wow, this is serious…” I thought. Being activated and expecting the mission to last a week or more, whatever the activation was for, it was going to be an uphill battle… I threw a few uniforms and a week’s worth of clothing in my rucksack and proceeded to drive to the armory.

    Preparation:

    I arrived at the armory in the evening and realized I had now been awake for over 24 hours. I contacted my chain of command and determined we’d leave at zero dark hundred for Seattle. I gathered my issued equipment, added it to my ruck sack, and tried to take a one-hour nap. I awoke to people on the move and bright fluorescent lights. It felt like I had just closed my eyes, but it was go-time. I grabbed my bags and met my unit in the parking lot of the armory. There was no time to waste! We loaded every cot we had, all our personal bags, and whatever we could quickly think of that we might need. We loaded our transportation and were off to Seattle in what seemed like minutes…

    The Build Up:

    On our way to Seattle, I had time to dwell and self-reflect. What’s so out of control that the Guard would be called up? Who and/or what am I going to be protecting? Am I going to be protecting rights, life, property, or all the above? I told myself that no matter what happens, I will do my utmost to remain impartial, to uphold the Constitution, to protect the rights of the citizens of the United States, and to protect life and property to the best of my ability. As a Soldier, we take an oath to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against ALL enemies, foreign and domestic. Regardless of the political climate, a Soldier has the responsibility to remain impartial, to ensure all citizens’ rights are protected and that the Constitution is adhered to. As we approached Seattle, I did so with an open mind and a sympathetic heart. I prayed that I may understand whoever needs our help, that I may do my job to the utmost of my ability, and that the rights of all those involved would be preserved.

    The Gear:

    Per order of the Governor of Washington State, Jay Inslee, the Washington Army National Guard went into Seattle COMPLETELY UNARMED. We had NO way to defend ourselves and HAD TO rely upon the SEATTLE POLICE DEPARTMENT to protect us… Not all of us had vests or plates that would stop rifle bullets. In the beginning, most of us didn’t even have shin guards… A few Soldiers didn’t have batons… Shields were hit or miss, but we ended up sharing where we could…

    The Riots:

    Oddly enough, my first day was one of the hardest days. We touched ground and were immediately dispatched to the Seattle Police Department (SPD) East Precinct near the intersection of 11th St and Pine St (Capitol Hill). This location would become very familiar for me, due to all of the “peaceful protesters” rioting here almost every night… Only one other unit arrived the day before we did, and they were sent to Westlake Center due to it being actively vandalized and destroyed.

    Before I talk about the first day, I have to admit that my squad was later sent to Westlake. While I was there, I saw remnants of fire and broken glass everywhere I went. Almost all glass areas were boarded up and the area was devoid of business. What I, and most non-locals didn’t know, is that Westlake is a shopping center. It’s blocks upon blocks of popular businesses in downtown Seattle. It’s essentially an outdoor shopping mall… Due to the fact that not a single store was open, I was curious about the extent of damage to the area the night before. While I was looking through photos on Google while on break, one of the Seattle Police Department Police Officers pointed to an area down the street and said, “The bastards torched my patrol car right there.” As she said that, the newspaper headline photo lit my smartphone screen as I could see protesters celebrating around broken business windows and a couple vehicles that were aflame. I thought to myself, “Why would someone do this?” As I read through the headlines, I came to realize the businesses were broken into, looted, and then set ablaze… all in the name of “Black Lives Matter.” I tried my best to connect the dots… but how does social injustice relate to graffiti, theft, malicious mischief, and arson? If there was a specific political statement from these crimes, even the news media didn’t interpret or understand it… it was obviously a crime of opportunity…

    Returning back to my first day at East Precinct, I was assigned as one of the squad leaders. My squad, consisting of primarily Soldiers from my unit, were fairly distinct. Like everyone else in my unit, we wore a black vest that distinguished us against every other Guardsman in Seattle. I could explain why, but it’s not relevant. If you want proof of where I was, find the Soldiers with black vests in Seattle… I was one of them.

    Anyways…

    On the first day, we were initially on the line behind the Seattle Police Officers at the East Precinct. The Officers weren’t carrying shields like us that day. During the protests, I observed Officers shaking hands with those yelling at them. I also saw one Officer approach a male crying in the crowd. The Officer asked the male if he wanted a hug and the protester replied, “Yes!” I watched as the Officer embraced and comforted the crying protester. Seeing these things, I thought to myself “Why am I here? Seattle PD obviously has a connection with the population, what am I supposed to accomplish or prevent here?” It didn’t take long for that to change.

    I took up position on our right flank, recognizing a weakness in our line. A female quickly made eye contact with me, while recording me with her cell phone, and started yelling… “HEY! ARMY! Where are you from?!” I told her I was a Soldier with the Washington Army National Guard. She asked if I lived in Washington State. I told her, “Yes, I’m a citizen of Washington State, just like you.” She then abruptly said, “Why do you guys keep killing us?” I told her, “Excuse me?! I haven’t killed anyone…” She looked at me, befuddled, and said… “You guys keep killing us! You know, your training… don’t you have some sort of limitation where you can’t kill people?! You know, where you can only shoot us if we shoot at you?” At this point, I obviously knew she was referring to our Rules of Engagement (RoE) but it was obvious she was trying to provoke me. I tried to explain to her that what she was saying wasn’t true, but she kept interrupting me. Every time I’d try to speak, she’d raise her voice and interrupt me. As she continued to escalate, I recognized she was trying to provoke an exaggerated reaction out of me. I looked at her, shrugged, and proceeded to ignore her as I scanned the crowd. She grumbled and said, “You don’t even know your own regulations?!” I looked at her, shrugged again, and continued to ignore her… As I was scanning, I saw a male protester point out and move towards an African-American Police Officer.

    The protester proceeded to yell, asking why the Officer was on the “white-man’s side.” He called the Officer an “Uncle Tom,” a “pretender,” a “race traitor,” and a N-word I’d prefer not to use. Every fiber of my being wanted to lash out. How can you use racist terms and protest racism while using it in a derogatory manner towards someone else? How can you even find fault in someone that is remaining peaceful, that is protecting your rights, and is obviously concerned for the community?! I was furious as the protester continued berating the Officer… We then got replaced by another squad for relief.

    During their “protest” I observed multiple people tell others to “shut up” because of their “white privilege.” I also saw two protesters almost get into a fight because one wasn’t “letting the black man speak.” Another protester, when a male had a megaphone, yelled “Listen to him! He’s black!” I was raised, under the impression, that equality means treating everyone equally… Race won’t cease to be an issue until we stop talking about it. All my brothers and sisters are one color: green. It’s cool to honor your heritage, but no one gets special anything due to their skin tone… Everyone is treated the same and everything is equal. How is this (equality) a hard concept?

    I talked to my Soldiers during our downtime. I had a few African-American Soldiers in my squad. I pointed out and talked to them about what I had just observed. I told them they may be focused upon, that the racists in the crowd might single them out because they’re African-American. It wasn’t long before we returned to the protest line.

    I should start gambling because it didn’t take long for the African-American Soldiers to get singled out. I’m not going to repeat the hate, racism, and discontent directed at my Soldiers. If they feel the need to share what was directed at them by the hypocritical “protesters,” they’ll do so. Either way, every single Soldier in my unit was phenomenal. Not a single Soldier lost their military bearing or professionalism. Not a single protester got anyone in my squad to break their military bearing… Not a single Soldier lashed out at the complete and utter stupidity of the racism coming from the hypocrites… After each one of my Soldiers was focused upon, I pulled them aside and later commended them on their military bearing and discipline. I reiterated to each one of them that the rioters were trying to provoke them to react. I told my Soldiers to maintain their discipline and to not worry about the protesters overstepping. I told them I’d be right there, to address any protesters touching them or pushing the boundaries.

    I have to say… I’m a prior Active Duty Soldier and these Guard Soldiers were on point! They must have had some hard charging Drill Sergeants because all of them maintained their military bearing through this whole ordeal and I’m proud as hell to call them brothers and sisters!

    Some highlights:

    “All of you Soldiers should have died in Iraq!”
    “You’re nothing but a bunch of Vietnam baby killers!”
    “The only thing you know what to do is murder people!”
    “All people should be afraid of you, you’re nothing but killers!”
    “You guys must be ready to kill people with your kung-fu gloves.”
    “I’m legitimately afraid of you guys because all you know what to do is kill.”
    “Who exactly are you here to protect?”
    “You’d rather protect property than people!”
    “You should be pointing weapons at the police!”
    “You’re on the wrong side, racists!”
    “Stop following orders and join us!”
    “You’re too dumb to form your own opinion.”
    “What Matters? Black Lives Matter… Are you too stupid to get that?”
    “You guys need to stop shooting people.”
    “You guys need to stop gassing us.”

    (We NEVER had firearms, Oleoresin Capsicum [OC], CS “tear” gas, or any other “weapons”)
    -Some of these comments were made towards us while we were just standing in an area, away from any “protest line” without a riot shield…

    On that first day, they continued to try to provoke a response from the Officers and the Guardsman. NO ONE PROVIDED A RESPONSE. I was on the line, near the center right. I remember a plastic water bottle being thrown across the line by the “protesters” on my right side towards a Police Officer. Soon after, a bottle landed on the left side, right behind our line. I yelled out “SHIELDS UP!” Without hesitation, our ENTIRE LINE of Guardsman moved forward, and placed ourselves between the rioters and the Police Officers.

    The “protesters” began throwing rocks, glass bottles, and chunks of concrete. I was out there ALL day. There wasn’t any construction going on. There wasn’t a pile of concrete or bricks anywhere to be seen. All I saw were younger people with heavy backpacks. THEY WERE GRABBING CHUNKS OF CONCRETE FROM THEIR BACKPACKS TO THROW AT US. Why is that important? Why would you carry chunks of concrete to a protest? Because you PLAN on using/throwing the concrete… When the concrete began to rain down on us, it came from ALL directions. What does that mean? It was COORDINATED. THEY PLANNED TO ASSAULT US WITH CONCRETE. I didn’t realize until later, but I have to tell you… it really pissed me off when I thought about the situation I had just experienced. As they were throwing these items, the Officers tried to protect us by using less-lethal means (OC/CS/etc). NO LETHAL FORCE WAS USED. Could the Seattle Police Department use lethal force in that situation? Absolutely… a chunk of concrete to the head can KILL someone…

    What NO ONE realizes, because the media is bias as hell, at least three police officers were injured that day before SPD used less-lethal means to de-escalate the situation. One Officer took a chunk of concrete to his right eye… last I heard, he’s expected to LOSE his eye. I retrieved a video from that confrontation with the “protesters.” You can see items flying towards us as SPD deploys OC (pepper spray). Notice the second use of OC, the long burst? That was over my right shoulder next to my head. I got some OC contamination from that, which was okay because I was trained for it… The crowd continued to throw concrete. At least two pieces of concrete hit my shield. I later took a picture of my shield, WHICH WAS BRAND NEW, to show the extent of crap being thrown at us.

    SPD then deployed CS gas. We had planned for this possibility, telling the squad on deck to come relieve us after they put their mask on. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. As CS was deployed, the crowd began to throw the CS canisters back towards us along with more concrete. I couldn’t put my mask on since I would have had to drop my shield to do so. I was currently protecting SPD Officers and I wasn’t going to allow the Officers behind me to get hurt. So, as Guardsman were pulled off the line by other Guardsman and SPD, I HELD MY GROUND. I’ve been through the CS gas chamber with the U.S. Army, but this was so much worse. I stood there, trying to breathe for as long as I could.

    At one point, I looked forward, and saw a female pointing a black pipe towards me. My thought in that moment: “You’ve got to be kidding me… they’re using potato guns too?!” As she turned to her right, I noticed it was a leaf blower. A “PROTESTER” brought a leaf blower to blow CS gas towards us… (It’s not like they were anticipating that, right?!) As the clouds of CS were parting due to her efforts, I saw a male… wearing a black hoodie, with the hoodie up, a bandanna, black pants, and a black backpack, in a throwing position. I watched as he threw a large piece of concrete (at least 5” x 5”), that was shaped in a triangle, directly at me. As it hit my shield (notice the white impact mark on the picture), I thought to myself… if I was armed, I would have shot him… The cloud of CS overtook me. As I struggled to breathe, I looked to my left and NO ONE was there. I looked to my right and saw only ONE OTHER SOLDIER. I began to fall back as a sea of navy blue rushed forward. SPD and the Washington State Patrol to the rescue! I returned to a rally point, dropped my shield, put on my gas mask, and began helping other soldiers that had been out on the line. As the smoke began to clear, I took a couple photos to remember this moment and the anger that flooded my emotions.

    The week continued and we were sent where SPD needed us. We were told we had begun to get a reputation with SPD. Our actions, while at East Precinct, showed we could be depended upon and we were there to help. The Guard had arrived, and we’d be there, standing shoulder to shoulder with SPD, against these anarchist/communist rioters in Seattle. We saw through the protester’s “cause.” They were using the horrible situation that occurred in Minnesota as an opportunity to cause chaos, to loot and steal, and to destroy everything in their way to gain momentum for their “revolution.” The group was quickly identified as Antifa, a communist action group that was in the process of being labeled as a terrorist organization by the Commander-in-Chief.

    I don’t like politics and I’m not going to talk about politics. When you’re in the military, you give up that luxury. It’s something I don’t mind giving up, since discussing politics is as pointless as convincing a stubborn person they’re wrong. It’s all opinion and people typically already have their mind made up. Getting into an argument over politics usually ends in an escalation and personal attacks, especially when discussed between two people that have already passionately made up their mind.

    Needless to say, I was very angry. I’m a protector by nature. When someone tries to hurt another person, and they do so when that person can’t defend themselves, I become very upset. People that do that are criminals. They’re the scum of society. They prey on the weak and defenseless for their own personal gain. These are the so-called “peaceful protesters” of Seattle. I agree with everyone’s right to protest, but the moment they try to assault someone, that’s when EVERYONE should have a problem with their actions. Why the media has continued to defend them, it just shows how biased and out of touch the media is and it irritates me.

    After only a few days, the majority of my unit was sent home. Why? The Guard wanted to re-staff COVID-19 food banks, testing centers, and send the full-time soldiers back to their normal jobs… So, a large portion of our unit was pulled, and we were left with a little more than a dozen soldiers. The platoon was condensed, and other units were added to our ranks to fill in for those pulled from our platoon. We worked very well together and continued to push forward, making the best of the situation, as we were constantly tasked out by SPD.

    Additional units began to arrive, due to Governor Jay Inslee activating the entire Washington National Guard (Army and Air Force). We soon realized that the majority of our “reinforcements” weren’t trained, were undisciplined, and were useless for the current mission in Seattle. Additionally, they were an embarrassment… Those units were quickly sent home by the Commanding General and we realized our platoon would be stuck in Seattle, battling Antifa, until the situation was resolved one way or another.

    I asked my chain of command a few times about arming us, but it was relayed over and over that Governor Inslee wouldn’t allow the Guard to defend ourselves or take the fight to the enemy (Antifa). The Governor made us rely on SPD to “protect us.” That limited the scope of our response, limiting our role as “shields” and “bodies” on the line for SPD… As SPD Officers and Guardsman continued to get injured at East Precinct, it became increasingly frustrating… Arming the National Guard is a risk, and some Antifa members probably would have been shot, but the situation would have been resolved quickly with a VERY different outcome.

    So, the same escalating confrontations with Antifa continued for almost two weeks… The “protesters” would assault SPD Officers and Guardsman and SPD would use LESS-LETHAL means to disperse the riot. The rioters then used politics to their advantage. They began petitioning the Mayor of Seattle, Jenny Durkan. Durkan, in all her wisdom, caved to all demands… the curfew was lifted, and she BANNED the use of CS gas, the ONE thing that quickly de-escalated the violent confrontations… SPD had no choice but to view CS gas as a last resort, to only be deployed by SWAT.

    Fast forward to the day before the most HUMILIATING and DEMORALIZING thing Durkan could have done…

    SPD must have had some really good intelligence, or they were anticipating Antifa’s response from Durkan’s concessions. They installed permanent metal barriers at the intersection of 11th St and Pine St. A second line of barriers was also in place in between us and the initial barriers at the intersection. Everything kicked off per usual, with the “protesters” trying to provoke us with their words, umbrellas, and signs. This time, though, we didn’t give them an audience. We all stayed inside the East Precinct, as they did their normal agitation methods at the first barrier.

    Suddenly, we were told the “protesters” began jumping the first barrier, heading towards us. We rushed out to the road and staged roughly 1/3 of the way up the block from the intersection of 11th St and Pine St, creating a large safety buffer between us and the “protesters” who had jumped the fencing. They were warned to return over the barrier, which they didn’t. They then began disassembling the barrier. They were warned not to disassemble the barrier, but they continued. They then walked towards us. They were warned to stop, but they didn’t. They continued walking towards us. They were warned again, but they continued. They reached the second barrier.

    We later found out they brought a plasma cutter (blow torch) to cut through the barriers… (not that they are the provocateurs, or are planning to escalate, right?!)

    They began cutting barriers so they could be used as weapons against us. They were warned about cutting the barriers, but they continued. They then picked up the second barriers and began walking towards us. They were warned again not to move the barriers, but they continued. They then jumped the last barrier. They were warned again to turn back, but they continued towards us. As they continued to approach, they were continuously warned. HOW MANY WARNINGS DOES IT TAKE?!

    It started to get dark… The portable lights were turned on. The “protesters” then produced foil covered signs and were trying to blind the Officers and Guardsman. They were warned again, but they continued. They then threw a glass bottle at a Guardsman, the glass bottle shattering on a riot shield. They were warned again, but they just booed at us. They continued to walk slowly towards the Officers until they were within 2-3 feet. They then started using their umbrella’s and other objects, putting them in the face of the Officers. They were warned again to not do that.

    As expected, objects were then thrown at us. They amplified things, this time. Instead of throwing glass bottles containing urine and other bodily fluids, they began throwing glass bottles full of gasoline. They then lit and threw fireworks at us, trying to light us on fire.

    FINALLY the SPD Administration gave the green light and LESS LETHAL forms of riot control were deployed. As objects were continued to be thrown at us, SWAT finally deployed CS gas. The “protesters” proceeded to start vandalizing everything in the area. They smashed business windows, burned U.S. flags, lit dumpsters and other items on fire, and threw things on fire at us. We pushed them back in all directions about half a block but for some reason, we stopped pushing them back. They then regrouped and continued to vandalize the area with spray paint, breaking windows, and lighting things on fire. Around that time, the Guard was pulled back and we left East Precinct.

    I returned the very next day at East Precinct, ready to continue the daily fight with these anarchists and communists. When I arrived, they were boarding up East Precinct. City employees were removing all the barriers and taking everything they could out of the precinct. We were ordered to about-face and leave. We went to a different precinct where it was announced that Durkan had decided to abandon East Precinct and to give it to the “protesters.” As we watched, Antifa took over the East Precinct and they erected walls at the adjacent intersections with the barricades we had used. They armed themselves, proceeded to vandalize the East Precinct with spray paint, and they declared Capitol Hill a Cop-Free, Autonomous Zone (CHAZ). It was hard enough for me to watch, but I saw Officers that were assigned to the East Precinct for decades, shield their faces, and walk out of the room in tears. The Capitol Hill area of the City of Seattle, to include East Precinct, was surrendered by its elected officials to the terrorists…

    I spent the next couple days stewing in Seattle… just waiting for any elected official to grow some balls and tell us to move back in… to take over the ground they surrendered… but it never happened. We were then told the Guard was losing its support from SPD. CHAZ was the new norm of Seattle. The terrorists won and it was time to go home. We expressed our frustration among ourselves, lowered our heads, sympathized for the SPD Officers, packed our rucksacks, and went home angry. (source)

    You may be completely on your own.

    As you can see, you can’t depend on anyone to come and save you when unrest shows up in your neighborhood. The people who were there, willing, and able to defend Seattle were forced to stand down. You have to expect to be completely on your own. Learn more about how to stay safe during civil unrest scenarios here.

    Can you imagine how the members of the National Guard and the police must have felt, facing this mob scene without the support of the state and local officials?

    Of course, there are two sides to every story and it’s important to see both. Here’s an on-the-ground video of the CHAZ area. You do not have to be logged in to watch it.

    One has to question how an elected governor could be so poor a leader as to let blocks of the largest city in his state be taken over by rioters. It honestly seems to be somewhat beyond “poor leadership.” What we’re wondering is whether Governor Inslee is truly this spineless, whether it’s a deliberate attempt to undermine law and order, or if he’s just another “useless idiot” progressing an agenda.

  • Is Dave Portnoy The Market's Mad Genius: Here Are The Top 40 Stocks In The Top-Performing "Retail Favorites" Basket
    Is Dave Portnoy The Market’s Mad Genius: Here Are The Top 40 Stocks In The Top-Performing “Retail Favorites” Basket

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 21:00

    On Saturday, we reported that something remarkable was taking place in capital markets: a basket of “retail favorite” stocks had outperformed not only the broader market by a wide margin, at one point last week surging as much as 35% YTD, but also the basket of most popular, “hedge fund VIP” stock.

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    How is this possible? For the answer to this question, we urge readers to catch up on this fascinating topic, starting with How Retail Investors Took Over The Stock Market, and concluding with Goldman’s Clients Are Getting Angry That Teenage Daytraders Are Crushing Them, while also noting a tangent we touched on twitter yesterday discussing the bizarrely-symbiotic relationship between Robinhood traders and HFT firms (which among other things has allowed Hertz to be on the verge of selling up to $1 billion in bankrupt equity as soon as tomorrow).

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    Whatever the reason behind the sizzling outperformance of retail stocks, one question remains: is Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy the market’s crazy genius of the day, able to whip up his frenzied 1.5 million twitter followers into a daytrading army that jumps from one opportunity to another, sending stocks surging then tumbling as he shifts his focus from one pennystock to the next.

    Much has been written about Dave Portnoy over the past few days, perhaps too much, starting with Bloomberg’s “Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy Is Leading an Army of Day Traders” (a profile he didn’t take kindly to), to the FT’s “the ‘retail bros’ betting on a quick recovery from the pandemic” and so on, the main thrust of which is the question whether the Fed has made markets too easy for people like Portnoy to massively outperform the “smart money”…

    Rule one is that “stocks only go up”, as he frequently reminds his 1.5m Twitter followers.

    Rule two: “When in doubt whether to buy or sell see Rule One.”

    … and when will his moment of market dominance come to an ends.

    While traditionally it would have been easy to dismiss Portnoy’s market prowess, the reality is that in a world where the Fed Chair has explicitly blessed his trading “strategy” of buying everything, and just doubling down when everything drops as the Fed will be there to bail him out, it has become virtually impossible to ignore what Portnoy’s strategy is: after all, in a way Portnoy has become the Fed’s investing “vessel” – showing everyone how it’s done in a world where the Fed has blessed the stock bubble. We will therefore pass judgment.

    We will, however, point out, that Penn National Gaming (PENN), which Portnoy owns a lot of as he reminds his followers with the following blurb in his twitter bio I own a ton of Penn Stock” as a result of PENN buying his company Barstool Sports for $450 million in January, just happens to be the top performing stock inside the top performing “retail favorites” basket as of this moment.

    Did Dave Portnoy have something to do with the remarkable outperformance of not just PENN, but also Royal Caribbean, Spirit Airlines, Norwegian Cruise Lines and so on, since the March 23 lows? You bet he did.

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    So in a world where rabid retail buying has dominated financial commentary for the past month, and where Hertz is about to make history by doing a targeted equity offering of bankrupt stock to the Robinhooders of the world, and raise up to $1 billion for the benefit of the company’s creditors, financial advisors and lawyers, it is rather prudent to know what are the top 40 market-moving stocks that make up the Goldman “Retail Trading Favorites” basket, as these stocks – for better or worse – will define the market landscape for the foreseeable future.

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    That said, with a median return of 43% since March 23, and a 25.6x 2021 fwd PE ratio, compared to the S&P’s 17.7x median, gamblers are faced with a daunting choice: either buy the basket in expectations that the biggest asset bubble of all time will only get bigger thanks to even more Fed stimulus in coming months, or the time has come to let some air out of this bubble, especially now that fears of a second wave are starting to spook stocks, and sending Eminis below 3,000 for the first time this month.

  • The Back-Channel Backlash Against Toxic Virtue-Mongers
    The Back-Channel Backlash Against Toxic Virtue-Mongers

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 20:30

    Authored by Mark Jeftovic via Guerilla-Capitalism.com,

    “Few trials have been more ludicrous both as regarded the charges and the kind of evidence admitted. Convictions and impressions were solemnly listened to, real arguments accorded no weight whatsoever.

    Brissot interrupted a witness by declaring that he had never uttered any such calumnies against Paris as were imputed to him.

    ‘But did your ever deny those calumnies?’ asked the president of the tribunal, as if that settled the question.”

    – Ernest F. Henderson, Symbol and Satire in the French Revolution, 1922

    There’s never been a more dangerous time to take issue with the mob, I thought we’d hit peak outrage sometime in 2019 and that it would taper off from there. I actually thought that by the time I’d put out my book, Unassailable, in January that I had missed the crescendo. But then coronavirus hit, and deplatformings were back with a vengeance and by April I thought it had gotten so bad I decided to make my book available for free in order to help heterodox voices get their messages out.

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    Despite the nobility of the cause, eras of mass statue-tipping sometimes portend excessive mob justice.

    But I was remiss in not anticipating how much cancel-culture would ramp back up ahead of the 2020 election, fuelled by widespread angst over the lockdowns and then detonated by the murder of George Floyd. All hell is breaking loose and while there are much needed reforms occurring rapidly, at least amongst policing (mandatory body cam recordings banning of choke holds, a Senate bill to end no-knock warrants, pressure to end Qualified Immunity, and if we’re lucky, a final abolition of civil asset forfeiture), there is also a vast ideological overshoot which somehow reminds me of an intellectual analog of The Terrors phase of the French Revolution.

    Emotions are running high, “people are pissed”, and the system itself appears to be in danger of breaking down. Unfortunately, the acceptable frames of discourse are now held to be obvious, and only moral reprobates would dare deviate from them.

    Virtue-mongering is what I define as an abrogation of the first principals of virtue, and a regression into a dumbed-down caricature of itself.

    Virtue, is of course an ideal, to be cultivated by the enlightened leader and thoughtful citizen alike. Virtue is the beneficent cultivation of optimal character traits in oneself. In “The Conduct of Life”, Confucius stated

    “To be able to practise five things everywhere under heaven constitutes perfect virtue: Gravity, magnanimity, sincerity, earnestness and kindness”.

    Virtue-mongering or “weaponized virtue”, is devoid of these traits. It is the assertion that merely staking claim to the higher moral ground makes one virtuous, and that one’s own belief system is universal. From that vantage point, all non-conforming viewpoints are by definition illegitimate and immoral.

    Objectively speaking, all disagreements are at their core a difference in priorities. How could anybody else possibly tell you what your priorities should be?

    Any parent of a teenager knows, you can try to explain to them how they may get farther in life if they reordered their priorities, but trying to do so for them, or to them is an exercise in futility. How on earth would it work at scale with strangers from on high telling everybody else how to reorder their own priorities?

    Accepting this reality, one then comes to grips that solving disagreements in a civil society is a matter of coming to an understanding of what each party’s priorities are, and why they are that way. The next step is then coming to an arrangement that serves all parties priorities.

    To arrive at a place where these orthogonal priorities can co-exist requires dialogue and discourse. People have to be able to say what they have to say, and if they don’t, then it’s going to come out one way or another.

    Virtue-mongers don’t allow this because in their mind there is only one set of priorities and one set of ideals: theirs. Yours sucks and it’s not even a thing.

    In the past couple weeks careers have been destroyed for trying to articulate inconsistencies in certain narratives or attempting to report on events in a non-conforming way.

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    Via https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chicago-fed-economist-fired-criticizing-defund-police

    Which is why, I am noticing lately, that more people are beginning to circulate articles and videos that echo a sentiment that resonates with them, privately instead of posting them in the public squares like Facebook or on Twitter.

    After all, if all it takes is one tweet to ruin your career, but you still feel like you have something you want to say, then the remedy is to say it behind closed doors to people who, even if they don’t agree with you, aren’t going to try to wreck your life for saying it.

    One such reader sent me this article, on Robespierre, which is what got me thinking of the historical parallels to The Terrors of the French Revolution. After he posted it to Hackernews, it made the front page until it was flagged as inappropriate (the same thing has happened to the last few articles I’ve posted there).  It’s long but I read the entire thing this morning because as I said, I find the historical parallel between the ideological certainty of the Committee for Public Safety and the same surety of today’s “woke” movement.

    “The source of Robespierre’s deepest convictions and of his certainty about them was his unquestioning commitment to an ideology he had largely derived from Rousseau, whom he regarded as “the tutor of the human race.” This ideology led him to believe that politics was an application of morality and that a good government was based on moral principles that ineluctably cause the interests of individuals to become indistinguishable from the general interest. Put another way, uncorrupted human beings intuitively recognize and act in the general interest. Any divergence between individual and general interest indicates the individual’s immorality and irrationality. If any individual fails to see that his true interests are the same as the general interest, he must be forced to act as if he did see it, for his own good.“

    Another friend sent me a video this morning, and you know, I had it embedded in this post but then, and to my point, I thought better of it. Even more to my point, while the immigrant, person-of-colour didn’t express any allegiance to the “alt-right”, he called out never-Trumpers for being hypocrites inconsistent in their positions. Once I had it embedded here,  it turned out the instagram account that shared it was some Maga/Qanon thing (which I couldn’t see in my Facebook messenger) and realized I was flirting with disaster.

    And finally, for our purposes there is this open letter purported to be from a professor at UC Berkeley who sent it anonymously, fearing reprisals should they attach their name to it.

    His or her fears are not unfounded…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    If the author of that letter is unmasked or outed, their career is over. Whoever they are, it took enormous courage to write it.

    These are just a partial example of the whole: people are uneasy and generally disenfranchised, but they aren’t comfortable voicing their objections about it lest it impact their career and their livelihood.

    We’re all so viscerally aware of the never-ending cancel-culture shit-list that most of us are afraid to speak our minds about what is going on or offer any kind of nuance or criticism or suggest alternatives. We may have something useful to add, but many of us won’t, because we know that doing so could very well mean the end of a career or a business that we put our heart and soul into over years, decades, or even a lifetime.

    We are all just one miscue away from being a trending hashtag. Frankly, I don’t even know if I’m going to post this and I’ve been working most of the weekend.

    Vocal Minority vs Silent Majority

    But there is a palpable uptick in people who used to post publicly in open forums like Facebook and Twitter, are now sending me links via private message, DM’s, email and closed, private groups. The trend now is to keep one’s opinions to themselves in the public sphere and to not share heterodox material on the public sections of the tech platforms any more.

    They’re sharing them privately, and when I get the same piece from multiple people, I suspect that a lot of these are going viral, behind the scenes. This emergent phenomenon is the new incarnation of samizdat from the Soviet era. It’s digital samizdat, if you will.

    I think this has been happening for awhile now and why the pollsters were so shocked when unthinkable outcomes such as Trump’s election victory or Brexit occurred.

    People were shame-fatigued, so sick of being called racist, immoral, deplorable, misogynistic, privileged, intolerant or were accused of dog whistling every time they disputed the prevailing narrative. Fearing reprisals for not fully embracing toxic virtue-ism they simply toed the line of virtue-mongers in public, then turned around and walked into the voting booth and pulled the other lever.

    The voting booth and the private communications channels are the last vestiges of individual autonomy and free expression and it is to here that the rational, moderate centrists, both left and right, have to beat a strategic retreat until The Virtue Terrors of the early 21st century burn themselves out.

    Why this matters

    I think I understand why there is so much rage in the world. I suspect it’s because the governing, one-party system is every bit as corrupt, and their enforcement arms in the police and military are every bit as brutal as the people who are protesting and revolting here and abroad assert it is. Qualified Immunity and Civil Asset Forfeiture here, War on Terror every place else, and Patriot Act, Five-Eyes Surveillance on everybody, and now Robespierre like enforcement of ideological purity, it all becomes overwhelming.

    However, as I alluded in the last #AxisOfEasy podcast  I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding around the underpinnings of that corruption that defines the establishment. It is understandable why that confusion exists. There is pervasive injustice, and there is an imbalance in power and there is unimaginable wealth inequality. But redistributing wealth or power isn’t the primary issue.

    Max Keiser totally nailed it when he said “Forget wealth redistribution, what we need to redistribute is risk”.

    Risk asymmetry means a two-tier system. Rule makers, and rule followers.

    Risk asymmetry is differentiated into those who can borrow billions of dollars in freshly printed currency at no cost, and those who pay 22% on their credit cards.

    Risk asymmetry is when the bank fails, or some public corp that levered up to buy back its own shares fails, they get bailed out in the latter, and maybe even bailed-in, with your money, if the former. But when your small business fails, or your job gets eliminated, well tough titties, that’s capitalism.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    That is the class distinction of our age. That is the nature of privilege. And until that is widely understood, nothing will improve. Until that is understood, then all social justice efforts are doomed to be co-opted by those who directly benefit from that risk asymmetry and class distinction, or hijacked by new Robespierres, who will springboard this angst to their own, ideologically extreme ends.

    Of course, this will never be widely understood unless discourse is permitted. When people do step up to sound heterodox views on current events it is important that they not be demonized and destroyed. Otherwise, to the back channels and the back alleys these impulses will go, and when they are pushed underground like that, they tend to mutate and then emerge in widely unanticipated ways. This is where things like 4chan come from.

    When the Girondists were led up the scaffolds to the guillotine, one of them yelled at Robespierre “you will follow us up these steps!”.

    He was eventually correct, and Robespierre did indeed lose his head.

    We’ll know when this phase is over today when a few of the shrillest, most radical, uncompromising gasbags of virtue-mongering are found to be offside on some byzantine moral criterion or in possession of some inexcusable form of privilege and devoured by their own minions in a crescendo of sanctimony.

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    In the meantime, the virtue-mongers should take heed:

    If it’s unsafe, or career threatening to participate in public discourse, then the counter narratives will diffuse behind the scenes. Nobody is going to be aware of them until they boil over into real world consequences, at which point the guardians of the narratives will lament how unprecedented and surprising it was. They may then construct some intelligence insulting mythology to explain what has happened, typically involving racism and alt-right tropes, then attack and demonize anybody who dares call out their folly.

    Rinse.

    Lather.

    Repeat.

  • Police Misconduct Claims Fall To 10 Year Low In New York City
    Police Misconduct Claims Fall To 10 Year Low In New York City

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 20:05

    While riots and looting continue nationwide in protest of the death of George Floyd, there is nary a fact to be found about police brutality or police misconduct. Perhaps that’s because the facts don’t fall in favor of the ongoing assault of the police in the United States that is taking place. 

    For example, New York Police last year saw their misconduct claims fall to a 10 year low. Allegations of false arrest, false imprisonment and excessive force are the lowest they have been at any point in the previous decade, according to new data from the New York Comptroller’s Office. 

    3,612 police related claims were filed in 2019, down from a high of 5,643 in 2014. New York City paid a total of $95.2 million last year to settle the claims, which is down from a high of $163.7 million in 2017.

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    Among other facts being ignored are the facts that police are more likely to shoot unarmed white suspects than unarmed black suspects, according to several studies. For example, Prager U notes that “A recent study by Lois James of Washington State University found that police officers are three times less likely to shoot unarmed black suspects than unarmed white suspects.”

    In another study, “Harvard economist Roland Fryer analyzed more than 1,000 shootings and concluded that police shootings show no racial bias. His study of police-involved shootings in Houston found that blacks are 24% less likely than whites to be shot by police in situations when they are armed or acting in a threatening manner.”

    Finally, a WSJ op-ed from 2016 called “The Myth of Black Lives Matter” inconveniently pointed out that “Whites and Hispanics are three times more likely to be fatally shot by police than African Americans, despite statistics showing blacks committing a disproportionate number of violent crimes.”

  • South Carolina Reports 4th Straight Record Jump As COVID-19 Cases Surge Across The South: Live Updates
    South Carolina Reports 4th Straight Record Jump As COVID-19 Cases Surge Across The South: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 19:44

    Summary:

    • Cuomo threatens to shut down areas if social distancing violations continue
    • SC reports 3rd straight spike
    • Florida reports another alarming jump in new cases as Miami beach reopens
    • Texas reports another record jump in hospitalizations
    • NY reports just 23 deaths – a record low
    • Kudlow says numbers across US still trending lower
    • Authorities cover another 8 cases tied to Xinfadi market Sunday morning
    • China confirms 57 cases from June 13
    • Tokyo sees another spike
    • 23 US states see cases climb
    • US reports 25k+ cases, largest daily increase in 2 weeks
    • Several states reporting record jumps
    • Iran sees deaths rebound
    • Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico see troubling climb continue
    • UK officials review lockdown conditions

    * * *

    Update (1840ET): NY Gov Andrew Cuomo threatened earlier to shut down Manhattan and the Hamptons if his office continued to receive a flood of complaints about people holding parties or otherwise flouting social distancing rules.

    New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) said he would reverse the reopening process for individual parts of the state if they do not abide by social distancing practices, citing thousands of complaints in Manhattan and the Hamptons.

    “I am warning today in a nice way: consequences of your actions,” Cuomo said at a press conference Sunday. “We have 25,000 complaints statewide. I’m not going to turn a blind eye to them. They are rampant and there’s not enough enforcement.”

    “I am not going to allow situations to exist that we know have a high likelihood of causing an increase in the spread of the virus,” the governor added.

    Maybe he should send a reminder to his own brother.

    * * *

    Update (1420ET): South Carolina reported its highest number of new cases for a fourth consecutive day on Saturday, joining a spate of startling increases across the south, including in Alabama and Florida, which both reported record numbers of new cases for third straight day.

    South Carolina counted 785 new cases on Saturday, the highest one-day jump since the virus landed in SC. Friday’s report had 729 new cases, Thursday’s saw 682 and Wednesday’s counted 531.

    The state has recorded a total of 17,955 cases and 599 deaths. SC was one of the last states to issue a stay-at-home order and among the first to reopen on May 4.

    South Carolina’s hospital bed occupancy has reached between 69.4% in the upstate area to 77% in the Pee Dee area, per state health department officials. In both Pee Dee and the Midlands, hospital occupancy is at records.

    * * *

    Update (1300ET): Florida reported another alarmingly high daily total of new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, the Orlando Tribune reported, citing data from state public health officials.

    Florida reported 2,016 new coronavirus cases and six new deaths Sunday, continuing the surge of reported infections in the state over the past week and a half.

    The statewide case load is now 75,568, and the death toll stands at 2,931.

    Saturday’s update from the state health department marked the highest number of cases reported in a day with 2,581 cases. It was also the first time since the outbreak began that more than 2,000 cases were reported in one day.

    Sunday makes the eleventh time in the past twelve days that the state saw more than 1,000 daily cases.

    Though it wasn’t as high as yesterday’s total, the 2k+ number is still more than twice the daily average from a couple of weeks ago.

    With its more than 75k cases, Florida still has the 8th-largest caseload in the country.

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    Source: NYT

    Of course, even these record high numbers didn’t deter patrons from the newly reopened Miami Beach.

    * * *

    Update (1200ET): Texas, Florida, California and Arizona are perhaps the four most closely watched states now that New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have seen the number of new cases wanes. And of these, Texas – with its urban clusters like Houston that have brought the state to the “precipice” of disaster, as one local official put it.

    And once again on Sunday, health officials in the state reported that hospitalizations have climbed to a new record. The Texas Department of State Health Services confirmed 2,242 people were hospitalized with the respiratory illness on Saturday afternoon, an increase from 2,166 people hospitalized on Friday.

    Friday’s virus hospitalization figure was Texas’ highest to date when DSHS reported it, surpassing previous admission records reported consecutively on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Hospitalization numbers reported last Sunday, June 7, only fell below Texas’ initial peak of 1,888 admissions.

    Hospitals around the state, but particularly in Houston, San Antonio and several more rural hot spots, have seen confirmed cases and patient admissions regularly climb. Statewide, hospitalizations have increased by close to 50% since then.

    Texas health officials also reported a sizable jump in new cases on Saturday, with 2,331 confirmed diagnoses. That number approached the current record, 2,504 positive tests, from Wednesday. Texas’ case positivity ratio, as DSHS notes on the state’s COVID-19 dashboard, is about 7.2%.

    The spike in new cases in more rural states hasn’t totally offset the drop in NY and the surrounding area.

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    Texas has identified 12,458 new virus cases over the last week. That trend has continued in June. According to JHU, the state has confirmed 86,915 diagnoses since the start of the pandemic, along with 1,971 deaths and 56,535 recoveries.

    During an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union”, Larry Kudlow appeared on Sunday to reiterated the same litany of factors minimizing the data showing an increase in cases and hospitalizations.

    Italy’s numbers were modest once again as the country, once the worst-hit in Europe, has returned to some semblance of normality, even in hard-hit Milan and the surrounding area.

    In New York, Gov Cuomo lashed out at businesses that haven’t been following the reopening guidelines.

    The state reported just 23 deaths on Sunday – a new record low.

    Cuomo has also authorized a study of the virus’s impact on minority communities.

    * * *

    Update (0900ET): The SCMP has a more detailed breakdown of the latest batch of cases reported in China Sunday, the largest one-day total in 2 months.

    Beijing reported 36 new local coronavirus cases on Sunday, all of them linked to the city’s biggest wholesale food market.

    The patients included 27 people who worked at the Xinfadi food market, which has been closed down, and nine who had been exposed to it, the municipal government said.

    Another person had also tested positive for the coronavirus but showed no symptoms, it said. Under Chinese rules, asymptomatic cases are not added to the tally.

    Beijing has confirmed 43 local cases since Thursday, before which it had not had any for 55 days.

    The outbreak has also spread beyond the capital to neighbouring regions, with the Liaoning provincial government announcing two new cases on Sunday, both of whom had been in close contact with Beijing residents confirmed as having the virus this week.

    For the country as whole, there were 57 new confirmed coronavirus cases in the 24 hours to midnight Saturday, the National Health Commission reported, the biggest one-day total in two months. Some 38 of the new cases were locally transmitted, including the 36 in Beijing, with the other 19 were travellers arriving from abroad.

    A spokesman for the Beijing Health Bureau urged all residents who visited the Xinfadi market to get tested immediately (that’s an order, not a request).

    With the market in Beijing accounting for the vast majority of new cases, it’s clear that the officials are reckoning with the reality that the asymptomatic spread across China’s biggest cities is likely much larger than authorities will admit.

    What’s more, officials have reported another 8 positive cases from Sunday morning (June 14), all of which were tied to Xinfadi (according to authorities).

    * * *

    The steady drumbeat of discouraging COVID-19-linked headlines continued yesterday as Florida, along with several other southern states, reported record-breaking spikes in new infections. That marked the state’s third daily record in a row, as Gov Ron DeSantis has blamed farm workers and sought to play down the rising numbers as an inevitable consequence of reopening, as beachgoers returned to Miami Beach for the first time.

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    According to the New York Times, there are 23 states where the daily number of new cases continues to climb.

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    Here’s what the Times heatmap of the US looked like Sunday morning:

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    Source: NYT

    With a large swath of southwestern Beijing back under lockdown, Chinese health officials said they confirmed another 57 new cases yesterday as they aimed to test more than 10k people connected by contact tracers to a local seafood wholesaler/market that has been shut down for a deep cleaning, as officials said it was the epicenter of the latest outbreak. Furthermore, officials have moved a widely anticipated economic briefing online. The NBS presser will take place at 10amET.

    Meanwhile in Japan, officials in Tokyo confirmed the capital city’s largest daily total (47) of new COVID-19 cases since May 5.

    In the Middle East, Iran suffered its biggest daily death toll from the coronavirus since April 13, around the time Iran started relaxing its lockdown. So far, a total of 187,427 people have been infected with the disease and 8,837 have died in Iran, according to Health Ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari.

    He added that Iran reported 107 deaths over the last 24 hours, a 9-week high.

    In the UK, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak backed calls to ease the UK’s 2-meter social distancing benchmark as HMG carries out its “comprehensive review” of the restrictive lockdown measures imposed by PM Boris Johnson during the early days of the pandemic. Since then, the methodology of the projections that inspired the government’s approach have come under question.

    As the number of new cases continues to soar in Brazil, Mexico, India and Russia, the Russians reported 8,835 new confirmed coronavirus infections, a 1.7% increase over the past day. An additional 119 people died in same period, bringing the overall death toll to 6,948, leaving it in third place.

    Meanwhile, the global tally of coronavirus cases has surpassed 7.8 million cases, while the US is nearing 2.1 million cases (2,074,526).

    US virus cases rose by more than 25k cases reported yesterday (remember, these numbers are reported with a 24-hour lag), the fastest pace in two weeks, while Brazil’s infections increased 2.6% as deaths climbed 2.1%, with Brazil seeing the number of cases draw closer to the 850,000 mark. Deaths in the country are nearing 50k.

    Finally, Beijing is pushing a conspiracy theory about US ‘conspiracy theories’ about the latest outbreak in Beijing.

    And the gaslighting continues…

  • The Three Best And Worst Ideas Of The Crisis
    The Three Best And Worst Ideas Of The Crisis

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 19:40

    Authored by Veronique de Rugy via The American Institute for Economic Research,

    In typical fashion, politicians in Washington already are talking about passing, before the August recess, another COVID-19 bill. Never mind that between the Federal Reserve and the spending, the sum injected into the economy now exceeds $10 trillion. Overlook also the fact that we don’t know what the economy will look like when businesses are allowed fully to reopen. And forget that only half of it has been spent so far, so there is still a lot of money to go around. Yet, they still want to spend more.

    But in the spirit of being constructive, let’s actually look at what are likely the three best policies Congress should consider going forward. And then let’s compare these policies to the worst ones that have already been implemented. That’s the challenge that I was given at a recent Webinar for the Mercatus Center. Here are my answers.

    I picked as my three best policies ones that target America’s most significant looming issues. (Some of these issues, unsurprisingly, were created by government interventions in the first place.) Good policies, of course, should allow for flexibility and innovation without bankrupting future generations, which I think these do. And the ones I picked also capitalize on the many deregulations that were implemented in the last few months. 

    The first policy comes from an idea proposed originally by Arnold Kling. It was put forward as an alternative to the Payroll Protection Program (“PPP”). Rather than inject more money, as does the PPP, into businesses through agencies like the Small Business Administration, a better policy would be to extend a line of credit to every checking account in the country, individual and business alike (You can find the details here).

    The individual part matters because 81 percent of small businesses are sole proprietors that do not exist as businesses in the eyes of the federal government and, thus, have a hard time getting loans through programs such as PPP. The money could be used for whatever individuals and businesses need, because if most people stay on top of their rents and car payments, it will help businesses but also reduce large distortions to the economy. 

    The key part of this plan is that these loans are repayable. This requirement creates all the correct incentives needed to inject liquidity into the market and firms without having to worry about the debt and about abuses. This is not a silver bullet for an economy that would continue to be frozen for many more months—nothing can save us from that—but it could help as the economy recovers and people return to work and consumers return to their post-COVID lives at different speeds. It doesn’t require an entire bureaucracy and shouldn’t cost as much as alternatives aimed at achieving the same goal.

    The second worthy idea for policy is to continue to free civil society from all the rules, regulations, and bad incentives that get in the way of us as individuals helping one another not only through the market process but also through charitable giving, churches, and other nonprofits. The most moving of the many different responses to this pandemic are the ways that people and companies went the extra mile – or two! – to help one another. 

    For instance, companies changed their business model to supply food for low-income families, as well as the likes of hand sanitizers, face masks and other needed goods to their communities. And let’s not forget the ways that companies, because of the globalization of science, have organized and collaborated to study the virus and to search vigilantly for a vaccine or a cure.

    Unsurprisingly, regulations got in the way of much of this private initiative. And while some of these regulatory obstructions were removed, many remain that will get in the way next time around. We must get rid of all of these barriers so that businesses and everyone can more freely and better adapt and innovate whenever the next crisis comes around–whatever that crisis is.

    The final worthwhile idea is the brainchild of my colleagues Patrick McLaughlin, Matt Mitchell, and Adam Thierer. They propose creating a commission similar to the Base Realignment And Closure. This new commission would identify and study all the rules revised or suspended during the current crisis and then make recommendations for each rule to be terminated or reformed, thereby crafting “a plan and timetable for automatically sunsetting or comprehensively reforming those policies or programs as part of a single reform package.” 

    They call it the Fresh Start Initiative.

    The next question that I and the other panelist were asked is, “What are the three worst policy suggestions that have come across your desk?” 

    That’s a hard question to answer since there are so many terrible policies to choose from.

    That said, I believe that possibly the worst one, hands down, is the matter that I wrote about in this space last week: that’s the way Congress designed the unemployment-insurance expansion. My issue here is less that government expanded the benefit – under the current UI system the federal government always does so during recessions – but by how much these benefits have been expanded.

    In response to the COVID crisis, benefits were expanded by $600 a week to most people unemployed or furloughed, including those who weren’t eligible for such benefits before and who decided to quit their jobs (as opposed to being laid off). The disincentives to work are and will continue to be huge since 68 percent of those getting benefits now make more by not working than they did when they were working. It’s clear to me that these benefits in their current form should not be further extended past July. Better yet, the UI system should be reformed entirely.

    The second bad policy put in place is the bailout of airlines. Bailouts are never the right way to address a company or industry’s financial troubles. Such handouts create serious moral hazard and other perverse incentives going forward.

    You see these terrible incentives with the airline bailouts. Gary Leff and I laid out the case here. But as with all bailouts, one of the worst things about these in addition to the cronyism of it all, is the bad precedent that it sets. Bailouts beget more bailouts without financial accountability. It is not surprising that airlines, many of which were bailed out in the past, were the first ones to beg for federal help out of the gate when the crisis started. 

    This fact is even more infuriating given that these companies have a perfectly good and safe alternative available to bailouts – namely, bankruptcy. Airlines have gone through bankruptcy in the past. Moreover, bankruptcy does not prevent them from flying safely during the process.

    The last bad policy that I highlight is actually a mix of all the many policies implemented. (I was tempted to pick the design of the PPP, including or maybe mostly because someone thought it was a great idea to have the aid flow through the Small Business Administration, an agency that has an impressive track record of messing up emergency relief.) Instead, I focus on the incoherent and conflicting approaches bundled together in the CARES Act.

    Rather than figuring out whether we should rescue companies or individuals, Congress tried to rescue both. And when it gave money to individuals, Congress didn’t just send individual checks; it also implemented paid leave, as well as massively expanded unemployment benefits and more.

    Adding insult to injury, unemployment benefits, as explained above, created incentives to drop out of the workforce, while PPP’s requirement for loans to be forgiven was that companies needed to keep their employees. This COVID-19 response was, to say the least, irresponsible and poorly thought through, and more about pushing through policies Congress already wanted before the pandemic but couldn’t get through.

    There are many other bad policies that Congress has adopted, and there are many more terrible ones, I am sure, that our ‘leaders’ are tempted to adopt, such as state and municipal government bailouts, extending reemployment bonuses or making federal paid leave permanent.

    The problem is that politicians will always be politicians, oversight never works, and the size of government grows.

  • "Take Your Benzos, Watch Your Porn": Sunday Night Advice For Self-Righteous Failures
    “Take Your Benzos, Watch Your Porn”: Sunday Night Advice For Self-Righteous Failures

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 19:15

    Many Americans suffer from a spiritual sickness, a singular brand of ennui only found in the most industrialized nations, where prosperity is spread among a vast middle class. White middle class Americans have no culture to center them and tether them to a community. Most of the ethnic whites lost these critical ties to “their heritage” when their parents and grandparents fled the cities in the aftermath of WWII. Adrift in the suburbs, jumbled together with thousands of other well-to-do strangers, they became despondent.

    Growing up, they lived lives that were planned by doting parents, who sheperded them from high school on to college, where the young adults of America go to “find themselves” in yet another layer of social conditioning masked as “education”.

    Like the Gen Xers who came before them, Millennials suffer from the same plight, only their sense of collective sense of entitlement and selfishness is more all-encompassing. Their parents appeased and coddled them to such an extreme degree that every minor setback in life is interpreted as some grand injustice, since they were never challenged, or pushed outside their comfort zone.

    Once they hit 25, they slowly start to realize that the dream career they had in mind – a sprawling Manhattan apartment, a good-paying job, perhaps as a gossip columnist at a widely read alternative newspaper – is simply beyond their grasp. They didn’t work hard enough, they didn’t have the smarts, the drive or the wisdom. But the notion that their failures are consequences of their own mistakes simply doesn’t compute; it’s not them – it’s the system. It’s capitalism, or racism or white supremacy.

    Yes, that must be it.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Anger and resentment can metastasize into hatred and fury at an alarming pace. Often, logic has nothing to do it. But for everyone thinking about joining the mob, we believe there’s a better method of dealing with these uncomfortable feelings, and it starts, unfortunately, with something that’s kind of uncomfortable: Taking responsibility for yourself. To that end, Twitter user @luinalaska, has some strikingly articulate thoughts (emphasis ours):

    Some of you have done NOTHING with your life and you’re mad. You have a college degree & a smart phone with access to virtually *anything* and you can barely get out of bed in the morning while you spit on people who built a whole world with nothing but a horse, map, & axe.

    You’ve made nothing with access to everything. You’ve conquered nothing. Hell you can’t even conquer yourself. So go tear it all down. Scream into the void how unfair it all is. It’s not that you’ve wasted your short time here. Surely not.

    Don’t bother with your own legacy you’re busy shitting on the long dead who aren’t here to care. Go burn down every Starbucks. That’ll show them. Torch the Target. Tear down every monument. Deface every memorial. But what have you built? What do you leave behind?

    So take your benzos. Watch your porn. Get Uber to drop off your dinner. Buy an adult coloring book. Have sex with strangers to ease your crippling anxiety. It’s not you. It’s the system really. It isn’t fair. Go cancel someone. Dox someone. They deserve it. You’re the good guy.

    Don’t write an epic novel worth building a statue to remember you. Go troll seven year old problematic tweets ever on the hunt for the boogeymen. See now you’ve accomplished something. Cancel everyone. You’re a warrior now. A real hero.

    And lastly whatever you do never ever take even a moment to self reflect on your own failures. Never own them. Never take a hint of responsibility. Remember you’re just a helpless victim of circumstances beyond your control. This all means nothing. Its like you weren’t even here.

    We wonder whether the reason leftists find authoritarianism – their brand of authoritarianism – so appealing is simply because it would allow them a free-floating get out of jail free card, an excuse for all occasions. Because the one drawback of being free, is that people then expect you to take that freedom, and accomplish something with it.

     

  • "Powell Is Now Helpless": Even A Modest Market Wobble Threatens To Devastate The Real Economy
    “Powell Is Now Helpless”: Even A Modest Market Wobble Threatens To Devastate The Real Economy

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 18:50

    Authored by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    “We’re not even thinking about thinking of raising rates,” declared America’s Fed Chairman, all but eliminating uncertainty about the Fed policy path through 2022. The S&P 500 had completed a historic recovery from the pandemic lows to trade higher on the year, its price utterly disconnected from today’s economic devastation.

    But markets never discount today, they discount tomorrow. And no sooner had they taken a little peek at what prices looked like back on January 1st then they began to plunge.

    Some blamed signs of a viral resurgence, though that had swirled for days. Others blamed Millennials whose day-trading resembles the dot.com mania. And a few blamed General Milley, America’s top-ranking general, who apologized for joining the President on his ill-fated march to St. John’s Church. You see, the generals have turned their backs on Trump over his response to demonstrators. The NFL has too; its commissioner apologized for having opposed taking a knee. Even NASCAR banned the Confederate Flag. And as Trump’s re-election prospects tanked, expectations for a dramatic restructuring of America’s economy soared.

    Efforts to rebalance the division of profits between capital and labor is demanded by a riotous Main Street. But this terrifies Wall Street, which has worked for years with Republicans, Democrats, CEOs and the Fed to extract an ever-increasing share of national prosperity for those who control capital.

    This imbalance is central to today’s tumult. “If we held back because we think asset prices are too high – what would happen to those people who we are legally supposed to be serving?” asked Powell rhetorically, unsuccessfully defending himself from a rising chorus of critics who see the Federal Reserve as amplifying inequality.

    For decades, the central bank accommodated the financialization of the world’s largest economy.

    Now that the process is largely complete, even a modest market wobble threatens to devastate the real economy. And Powell is now helpless, caught in a trap of the Fed’s making.

  • The Fed Has Monetized All Treasury Issuance In 2020
    The Fed Has Monetized All Treasury Issuance In 2020

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 18:25

    “We are ruined if we do not overrule the principles that the more we owe, the more prosperous we shall be”  – Thomas Jefferson

    There is no more subversive entity in the US, more destructive, more inflammatory yet out of the spotlight of public outrage, than the Federal Reserve: it is the Fed’s actions over the past 108 years – and especially over the past decade – that have spawned much of the anger, resentment and hatred that has permeated US society to its very core as a result of the Fed’s monetary policies.

    Yet because much of the public fails to grasp the insidious implications of endless money-printing which makes owners of assets exorbitantly rich at the expense of regular workers, popular anger at the Fed remains virtually non-existent, despite clear warnings from Thomas Jefferson, and countless others over the decades, about the dangers posed by central banking.

    And so, taking advantage of the general public’s general gullibility, the Fed continues to lie and dissemble at every opportunity, of which the most recent example was last week when Powell said that “inequality has been with us for increasingly for four decades” and arguing that monetary policy is not a cause for that. What he forgot to mention is that four decades ago is when the Nixon closed the gold window….

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    … severing the last link of the US dollar to tangible value, and allowing the Fed to print with impunity, creating the current wealth divide which has now spilled over into the streets of America.

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    One other thing the Fed has been consistently lying about is that it does not monetize the debt. The chart below is evidence that this, too, is a lie, with US Treasury debt increasing by $2.86 trillion in 2020 (most of it in the past three months) which is less than the $3.0 trillion increase in the Fed’s balance sheet over the same period. In other words, the Fed has monetized 105% of all Treasury issuance this year.

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    So although Powell may never admit it, Helicopter Money, also known as “MMT”, is now here, and will never go away as Deutsche Bank hinted earlier.

    And speaking of MMT, below we republish the latest article from Adventures in Capitalism discussing how MMT is Going Mainstream – yes, even rap musicians endorse MMT now – and how this wanton printing of money to address every social ill will have profound ramifications that will last generations.

    So without further ado, here is…

    “MMT Going Mainstream…” by Kuppy of ‘Adventures in Capitalism’

    My good friend Kevin Muir from Macro Tourist (I highly recommend that you subscribe) has been banging on about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) for ages. I’ll admit, some of his pieces have been difficult to read as I’m firmly planted in the Austrian school—I believe gold is money and everything else is fiat. I believe governments create inefficiency and corruption while politicizing common sense ideas. I am against MMT in all of its insidious forms as it only legitimatizes all that I disagree with. With that out of the way, I’ve matured enough to know that what I think doesn’t matter. My job isn’t to stake the moral high ground; it is to make money for my hedge fund clients by noticing trends before others do. While I disagree strongly with MMT, Kevin has been right to repeatedly educate himself and his readers on MMT because it’s coming (whether or not you want it).

    With Kevin’s permission, I have re-posted his most recent MMT note in full. I think this will be one of the most important macro pieces I’ll post on this site. There’s been a fundamental change in how governments tax and spend, yet most do not yet realize it. MMT is going mainstream. Are you ready…???

    Yesterday, MMT-advocate, Stephanie Kelton released her much-awaited book, The Deficit Myth.

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    You might think MMT to be a crock. It might make every bone in your body shudder. You might feel sick to your stomach as you read the theory. These are just a few of the responses I have heard from traditionally trained hard-money types who learn about MMT.

    I suspect most of you know that I am open-minded to many aspects of MMT, but expect it will be taken too far – just like monetarism has been taken too far.

    When I see the extreme monetary policy of Europe and other countries with negative rates, all I can ask is how can anyone claim with a straight face that monetarism is working for us? So yeah, I would rather try something new than continue down the current road of easier and easier monetary policy.

    Yet, what you or I think about a particular economic policy doesn’t mean squat. I am not here to debate what should be done, but what will be done.

    So let’s put aside the economic merits of the different schools of thought, and focus on discounting their probable implementation.

    The Deficit Myth

    I haven’t yet fully read Prof Kelton’s book, but glancing at the introduction, she does an admirable job sketching out her viewpoint in easy-to-understand layman’s terms. I have taken the liberty of pulling the important bits:

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    There is nothing new in Kelton’s introduction. MMT’ers have understood these concepts for more than a decade.

    But we always must remind ourselves, as traders and investors, what’s important is to discount how the public perceives those ideas. Remember the whole Keynesian beauty contest concept (probably not the most politically correct analogy, but let’s remember that Keynes lived in a different era. In fact, I suspect if Keynes were alive today, he would be more politically correct than some of his most vocal opponents –Niall Ferguson apologizes for remarks).

    Keynes rightfully understood that investors discount what the crowd will perceive as the most likely outcome as opposed to the best choice.

    Which brings me to my main point. And I know some of you might think this is nuts. But I don’t care.

    I have been watching for signs that the concept of “governments are not financially restrained” taking hold within the non-financial community.

    I have even postulated that the corona virus crisis might prove to be the tipping point for this theory gaining traction. With all the extreme fiscal measures being put in place (without undue immediate negative effects), the public might realize that the government’s large fiscal response works miracles at staving off short-term economic pain. They might suddenly understand there is nothing holding society back from doing that again for other priorities.

    Well, I think I got my signal. Earlier in the week, I noticed a popular rapper tweeting out the following:

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    Yup. The whole theory behind MMT is being endorsed by rap musicians now!

    When disputing the need for a balanced fiscal budget, MMT’ers have often resorted to the argument, “if there is always money for war, then why isn’t there always money for other social programs?”

    I don’t want to dispute the validity of their argument. However, the narrative that “we need to balance budgets” has been torn down by the corona crisis better than the war argument ever did.

    Over the last month, a growing portion of society has concluded that there was never any financial constraint to spending money.

    I know the hard-money and traditionally-trained-economic thinkers will scream bloody murder at that thought. I get it. It doesn’t seem to make any sense. How can there be a free lunch? There is no such thing.

    I will repeat again – I don’t want to discuss the merits of MMT. We will save that for another post.

    What’s important – and it’s probably the most important thing that has ever happened in my investing career – is that the narrative surrounding deficit spending has changed.

    Deficits are no longer “bad”. The budget hawks have all been silenced.

    This will have ramifications that will last generations.

    If this MMT school of thought continues to gain traction, then many of the investment playbooks from the last few decades need to be thrown out the window. It will be as a dramatic shift as the 1981-Paul-Volcker-stamping-out-of-inflation. It will be an end of an era.

    Over the course of the coming months I will discuss the long-term investment consequences. But I wanted to highlight that MMT is about to go mainstream. And as it becomes more popular, it will turn investing as we know it on its head.

    Decades from now we will look back at the corona crisis and say it changed more than just our attitudes about viruses, it marked the beginning of a change in the way we think about money.

  • Growth Inequality Is "A Pox On The House" Of Society
    Growth Inequality Is “A Pox On The House” Of Society

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 18:00

    Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog,

    Inequality has soared over the last several months with billionaires seeing huge gains in their wealth while many people are getting slammed. Much of the adverse effect on the average American has so far been masked by trillions of dollars flowing from the government in the way of temporary stimulus checks. The covid-19 crisis and how it has been handled by the governments and the central banks have resulted in creating a twilight-zone economy. The moment the current $600 a week federal unemployment benefits run out at the end of July, many people will find they are caught in a financial vise with few options. Getting that unemployment money is the biggest reason many people who’ve lost jobs are able to keep a roof over their heads. Knowing many of these people are not going back to work is a big problem. You are not alone if you are having difficulty reconciling the growing divide between Wall Street markets that seem totally ignoring economic reality.

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    “Most Shorted” Stocks Soar As Bears Cover

    Many market watchers and pundits are troubled and confounded by the recent market action. Several explanations exist with each one having some validity but great uncertainty remains. In a manipulated environment such as we have today where markets are propped up and manipulated with no true price discovery, all investments have become risky. The markets are reflecting a V-shaped recovery that Citigroup warns may be far too optimistic.

    A slew of new investors, mostly inexperienced, have stepped into the breach and bought the dip under the impression it will lead to prosperity. This is evident in the area of the most shorted stocks which are on such a rant as those most negative on the economy are forced to capitulate to a soaring market. This is occurring while Citi writes its model still shows that a greater than 70% probability of a down market in the next 12 months remains.

    Another area where this can be witnessed is in how a newly IPO’d company has exploded to become the most valuable truck-maker in the world, despite having no sales ever. Stock in Arizona-based Electric trucking startup Nikola soared last week, more than doubling in one day. This gave the company a market value of over $30 billion. This occurred after Nikola founder, Trevor Milton, tweeted about taking in reservations for the company’s light-duty truck called ‘Badger’ starting in late June. Its medium-duty truck is due in 2021, and a heavy-duty truck in 2023.

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    Proposed Badger Truck Not Yet Produced

    To put this in context, during 2019, Ford with a lesser market cap of $28.7 billion sold 5.5 million cars while Nikola sold none. This type of major disconnect from reality strengthens the argument that much wealth is an illusion financially manufactured and related to positioning. The idea you can become a billionaire in a matter of hours is hard to comprehend at a time many Americans are worried about losing their job.

    Many questions remain unanswered when it comes to the economy and many potential risks could affect the markets in the coming months. Biden could defeat Trump and the Democrats sweep Congress. Covid-19 could unleash a second blow setting back the reopening of businesses. Another big issue is the protest and civil unrest could grow much worse when the real impact of unemployment shows its ugly face. The fact that many older experienced traders are appalled at the stupidity and euphoria of this market does not matter. None of these issues seem relevant to those arguing that substantial Fed-induced liquidity has rendered traditional fundamental analysis moot.

    Circling back to growing inequality, it is important to remember some stock indexes are making new highs at the same time NPR reports Americans are skipping payments on mortgages, auto loans, and other bills. Wealth inequality has soared in recent years and now stands at the worst it has been during the entire U.S. post-war period. Simply put, statistics show many Americans lack the money to pay for a $500 repair. Driving a decent car doesn’t make a person middle-class or economically equal, especially if they are up to their eyeballs in debt to do so. While companies have temporarily put collection activities on hold due to the covid-19 pandemic, this will likely lead to a huge number of foreclosures, evictions, auto repossessions, and credit downgrades.

    The explosion in the national debt only bolsters the masses for a moment before finding its way into the pockets of the .01% that pulls the strings in Washington and controls our fate. Inequality has been growing and it is far worse for society and the world than first thought we are witnessing the further collapse of the middle class. The number of people living on government transfers of wealth has grown over the years, the National Debt Clock provides some rather shocking data concerning the number of people that are currently “receiving benefits” from the government or are unemployed. Many of the American’s that are now experiencing the slip into this economic quagmire and rough times will tell you, “I never thought it would happen to me.” In the end, it is likely a great number of these people will become a burden to society.

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    A More Recent Chart Hard To Find! click to enlarge

    In a piece titled; “The Morass That Swallowed the Middle Class” Matthew Shaw delves into how much of the inequality debate focuses on the gains of  the “1%,” and less attention has been paid to the economic well-being of others. What is broadly termed the middle class is all too often just lumped into a diverse group labeled the 99%. In truth, many of these people are dirt poor. Much of this centers around just how out of touch our “professional elite” are with the general population and the economy. By our professional elite, I refer to those who make the rules and their minions, their aids, the academics, the financial institutions, economists, and the media, all of which have tied their wagon to the status quo. Conflict and corruption also enter into this because we often find those setting the rules also tend to want a bigger piece of the pie.

    This growth in inequality is a “pox on the house” of society. For decades the rich and powerful have been increasingly grabbing a larger slice of the economic pie. A great deal of growing corporate profits come from cutting back on the greatest expense businesses have to pay and that is labor. This is and will substantially increase in coming years as robots displace humans in the workforce. Robots are here and more are being deployed each day, soon this will prove to be a big deal. The topic of our future and culture always circles back and is directly linked to the issue of jobs vanishing as automation and an army of robots march into our workplace. Rest assured when push comes to shove those displaced from the job market will find they are only given enough to scrape by and ensure they remain docile and behave. If and when this becomes an issue conflict and violence will arise it is possible that someday they will be brought to heel by an army of robots designed to keep them under control.

    The reality that a vast majority of people face diminishing prospects is a concerning trend was highlighted by the IMF in a report focused on data showing how middle-income households have continued moving down, rather than up, as income distribution in the United States has shifted over the last several decades. The U.S. middle class has never recovered after being “hollowed out” when manufacturing jobs fled America and incomes fell. Current trends indicate the “equality gap” is not expected to narrow in the future. Growing income inequality is not just an American problem but it is an issue across the globe and no magic or silver bullet exists to address the conundrum brought about by this concentration of power and wealth. The images of cities burning and widespread looting as a result of a police brutality reminds us that society has become broken and just how corrupt the U.S. economy has become. These are the sorts of cultural events that happen when states begin to fail. One thing is certain and that is, those that have taken to the streets in protest will tell you, whatever actions society takes, those on the receiving end will complain that “It ain’t enough.”

  • CEOs Who Gave Up Salaries "In Solidarity" With Workers Gorged On Stock Grants Instead
    CEOs Who Gave Up Salaries “In Solidarity” With Workers Gorged On Stock Grants Instead

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 17:35

    A few days ago, we shared criticism of the latest depressing boardroom trend among energy companies headed to bankruptcy court: the seemingly shameless granting of lucrative bonus packages to top executives, while most of the other ‘stakeholders’ expect to be wiped out. Business writers often reflexively defend these types of bonuses as simply part of the game: companies hitting the financial rocks often throw away tens of millions of dollars on bonuses for key people and expensive advisors and consultants, seemingly hastening their demise.

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    In theory, these decisions, while optically poor, will benefit the business when it comes out on the other side of restructuring (unless it’s headed the other way, straight to liquidation). On Wednesday, the FT published a report  that raises some interesting questions about the recent market rally, while also evoking one of the central ironies of this rebound: As RobinHood traders dump their stimulus checks in the stock market casino, buying up stocks priced under a $1 because, well, they’re cheaper than a dollar and 100 shares only costs, at most $100 (since most of this trading is no-fee now), some of the biggest beneficiaries are the CEOs of major public companies who made a big show about giving up their compensation in solidarity with workers during the coming hard times.

    In reality, the liquidity driven market rebound has drawn attention to the fact that CEOs smartly swapped their salaries for ‘performance incentives’ like restricted stock and options. As the market has rallied, are cashing in big time.

    As they reap the rewards, shareholders will be the ones asked to tolerate the additional dilution.

    During its reporting, the FT examined 554 companies that announced executive pay cuts during the early days of the outbreak, according to data provided by Equilar as of May 29. Of the 122 companies that granted option or stock awards in March, the FT only included the 51 companies in that group which had not changed CEO since February 2019, and/or had extended their current equity awards program.

    Equity awards for some companies have, within two months, increased in value by nearly 50%, in some cases.

    Michael Marino, managing director and head of the New York office for executive comp consultants FW Cook, told the FT that the companies are doing this for one of two reasons: either the companies insisted on compensating the CEOs with shares and options with a similar dollar value, or executives chose this, fully aware of the optics.

    Given that corporate executives have a much more expansive view of the global economy than the average day trader, we imagine they saw which way the wind was blowing, felt the hysteria and panic in the streets, and figured stocks would probably blast back above the ATHs sooner rather than later.

    One of the worst offenders, according to the FT report, was Dick’s Sporting Goods. Here’s an illustration showing just how much more they dished out in options in stock this year…

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    …in comparison with prior years.

    When the chief executive of Dick’s Sporting Goods said in March that he would temporarily relinquish his $1.1m salary, Edward Stack became one of hundreds of US executives to signal they would share the pain the coronavirus shutdown was inflicting on employees.  But the announcement, which came shortly before the sporting goods chain announced that it would put most of its 40,000 employees on temporary unpaid leave, told only part of the story.  Just a day earlier, when market turmoil had sent shares in Dick’s Sporting Goods to their lowest level since the 2008-09 financial crisis, its board granted options to a host of executives. Mr Stack received more than 950,000 stock options, which he can exercise in stages over the next four years. The initial value of the award on paper was calculated based on the depressed share price in March, but by June 9 it had rebounded by 133 per cent, or $21.5m in potential gains — far outstripping the sum he had sacrificed in salary.  Not only was the timing of the grant slightly earlier than in previous years, but the number of options was far larger. The number Mr Stack received this year was greater than the total he was granted in the past six years combined. If the price of Dick’s Sporting Goods shares return to their January high and remain there through to 2024, those options would be worth about $31m.

    Like Dick’s, which was swept up in the broader hit to retail, companies operating in industries that were badly impacted by the virus often loaded up on the paper money as the possibility of a bankruptcy protection filing loomed heavily on shareholders’ minds.

    Large hotel operators including MGM Resorts, Marriott International, Hilton, Wyndham and Hyatt all granted their senior executives restricted stock or options in late February and March. Among the seven hotel group CEOs, the biggest gains would be enjoyed by Mark Hoplamazian from Hyatt. His whose stock appreciation rights and restricted stock would be worth a potential $17m if Hyatt’s stock returns to its February high. Hyatt announced in March that Mr Hoplamazian was forgoing his April and May salary, which was worth about $205,500, based on public filings for 2019. The company further extended the sacrifice scheme from June, coinciding with a large round of layoffs, costing Mr Hoplamazian a total of almost $925,000 in foregone salary.

    Here’s an FT illustration of the various companies included in the data, which, again, were provided by Equilar.

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    So, how have all these shares performed? Well, it varies.

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    Some essential context: growing stock awards are the biggest drivers of inequality between CEO pay and average employee pay. This is nothing new.

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    To be sure, not every executive gorged on options packages and restricted stock. Some companies, like Macy’s, also suspended these awards, along with their executives’ standard compensation, refusing to cave to the panic.

    Fortunately for these executives, as long as the market stays bid, they’ll continue to look like geniuses.

  • Robert 'Rich Dad, Poor Dad' Kiyosaki: What The Elites Don't Want You To Know
    Robert ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’ Kiyosaki: What The Elites Don’t Want You To Know

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 17:10

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad, Poor dad says there’s something the elitists don’t want you to know.  There’s a simple way to take back your power, and it involves removing yourself from any centralized banking system.

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    These centralized systems were all set up for the elite by the elite, and they don’t want you to know you can remove yourself from the system, or the Matrix, so to speak. All you have to do is invest and spend outside of their system.  Decentralized systems are already in place, and the key to breaking free involves understanding that the central banks were not set up to help you.

    The Federal Reserve, the United States central bank, has “printed” [created out of thin air] more than $2 trillion since the global economic crisis began, and when the Fed prints money it makes the price of assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin go up. As Robert Kiyosaki says, central banks are run by the “controlling elite.” These elites do not like gold or because central banks cannot print gold. Equally, central banks do not like Bitcoin and the blockchain because what Robert calls people’s money, does not need central banks either.

    Today, billions of people are trapped in a central banking system owned by the mega-rich and are losing big time because they are saving money.

    Kiyosaki says he knew the “leaders” of the world were screwed up, but even he didn’t think they were as diabolical as they have revealed themselves to be.

    “People are missing out on one of the biggest, catastrophic cash heists, of the whole world,” says Kiyosaki.

    “Our governments have really screwed up,” he adds. So it’s time to leave the system or be dragged into slavery by staying in it.  After all, they shut down the world to cover up something “very very big.”

    Kiyosaki says to get crypto. The reason he likes it is because it’s outside the system.  The elitists and politicians cannot control Bitcoin, and they are terrified of people realizing this. This is panicking  all of the control systems of the globe (the governments.) They do not want you to figure this out.

    This was put in a fine way by a man named Jake Ducey, who understands, like Kiyosaki, that we are embedded in this Matrix of mind control.  But we can remove ourselves, and it’s remarkably easy.

    But first, it’s important for you to understand why they need you to think you can’t be free of the rigged system. Once you figure it out, you’ll break out immediately, and it renders them useless. As Duecy says,

    what good is a lifetime politician, that’s been a politician for 40 years, that’s made all this money off of taxpayer money (theft) and insider investing…what good are they if we realize we can create a better world without them? It renders them useless. Now, what good are the people that are behind the scenes, pulling the strings on those types of puppets, and we don’t even know who they are, ad they hide in the shadows, what good are they? NONE! And that’s why there’s a vested interest in censorship and control of any information that uplifts and changes the thought patterns of too many people.”

    In short, to break free from the system means to stop using their money and paying them (taxes) to keep you enslaved.  Instead, use alternative currencies that cannot be manipulated, and realize that you don’t need a master or a ruler ordering you around because, without them, we can still work together and create a future worth living.

    This is all part of the Great Awakening, says Ducey.  You can remain enslaved to the system, or you can wake up, let go of it, and start really living now. I think it’s happening anyway, so you might as well make the decision live freely anyway.  The longer you hold out and insist you need a master dictating your life, the harder this transition to a better way of life will be for you.

    Good ideas don’t require force.

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Today’s News 14th June 2020

  • Officer Fired, Police Chief Steps Down, Wendy's Set Ablaze After Atlanta Shooting
    Officer Fired, Police Chief Steps Down, Wendy’s Set Ablaze After Atlanta Shooting

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 06/14/2020 – 02:00

    Atlanta PD officer Garrett Rolfe has been fired following the deadly Friday night shooting of Rayshard Brooks, while another officer, Devin Bronsan, has been placed on administrative leave, according to 11 Alive – citing an Atlanta Police spokesman just after midnight on Sunday.

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    Officer Garrett Rolfe, Officer Devin Bronsan

    Meanwhile, Atlanta Police Chief Erika Shields will be stepping down following the incident.

    Brooks, who had fallen asleep at the wheel at a Wendy’s drive-thru, was shot by an officer after he grabbed one of their Tasers and pointed it at them as he was running away. He died later that evening at Grady Memorial Hospital.

    In response to the shooting, protesters set the Wendy’s on fire:

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    A CNN crew was attacked by peaceful protesters at the scene:

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    The group then began to set fires nearby:

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    *  *  *

    The latest police killing of an “unarmed” black man unfolded Friday night in Atlanta, and footage released Saturday afternoon is already causing a major uproar in the city. Activists are demanding that Atlanta’s police chief Erika Shields, whose statements to the press and willingness to push deescalation tactics made her a media darling during the unrest that followed the killing of George Floyd.

    Though the only details of the incident so far involve grainy cellphone camera footage, it’s clear in the video that one of the two APD officers involved in the incident shot a suspect in the back as he was running away after wresting one of the officer’s tasers away from him.

    The Georgia NAACP claimed the APD needs “a serious overhaul” and argued that the deceased suspect, later identified as Rayshard Brooks, 27, was killed for “sleeping” (not for attacking two officers and stealing one of their weapons)>

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    The footage posted to twitter earlier shows Brooks successfully wrestle both officers to the ground before running off with the taser. At the end of the video, several gunshots ring out, though the shooting of Brooks isn’t shown.

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    Meanwhile, protesters showed up Saturday to Washington DC’s “Black Lives Matter” plaza where smaller protests have been ongoing every day. Saturday marked the 16th day of demonstrations.

    Here’s what happened according to the Washington Post: the ADP received a call and was dispatched to a local Wendy’s Friday night following a complaint about a man parked and asleep in the drive-through, according to a preliminary report from the Georgia Bureau of Investigation. The situation escalated when the two officers tried taking Brooks, 27, into custody. He resisted, and the situation quickly became violent.

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    Shields

    Atlanta activists wrote Saturday that “ADP shot another unarmed black man in South Atlanta. Details are still coming and our rage continues.”

    The GBI’s preliminary report told a different story.

    “During the arrest, the male subject resisted and a struggle ensued,” GBI said. “The officer deployed a Taser. Witnesses report that during the struggle the male subject grabbed and was in possession of the Taser. It has also been reported that the male subject was shot by an officer in the struggle over the Taser.”

    Brooks died Saturday morning at a local hospital after emergency surgery.

    Brooks’s death marks the 48th officer-involved shooting the GBI has been asked to investigate since the start of 2020. Ahmaud Arbery was also shot and killed in Georgia, though his assailants – who will all stand trial for murder – weren’t cops.

    Once the GBI completes its independent investigation, the case will be turned over to the Fulton County District Attorney’s Office for review. Later on Saturday, the Fulton County DA’s office said it had already launched “an intense, independent investigation of the incident” and that personnel were dispatched to the scene immediately after the shooting. One local outlet said both officers involved have been removed from duty pending an investigation.

  • Former MI6 Spy Alastair Crooke: For This To Slip Would Be The 'End Of Empire'
    Former MI6 Spy Alastair Crooke: For This To Slip Would Be The ‘End Of Empire’

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Alastair Crooke via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    A hot humid day, but a gentle, warm breeze is blowing. The smoke and tear gas swirl gently to and fro, hanging in the dense, sweaty air, as shafts of dazzling sunlight scythe through the smokiness at sharp angles. A mass protest is forming. Youths are chattering; people moving aimlessly. It still has not solidified into purpose, yet the raw tenseness of the coming conflict hangs, as palpably as does the smoke in the air. It is evident – there will be violence today.

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    No, this is not America. This is the flashpoint crossroad between the radical Jewish settler outpost of Beit El in the West Bank, and its interface with the Palestinian town of Ramallah. Between the two, the Israeli army are ranged, awaiting the hostilities to commence. This was back, during the Second Palestinian Intifada; it was a time of near war, and I was present, charged with observing this, and other unfolding confrontations, on behalf of the EU.

    As usual, I head to the back of the sprawling mob, for it is only from this perspective that one can understand the nature of events. You observe the silent organization in action. Young men smoothly and unobtrusively, position the piles of stones that later would be hurled (mostly ineffectually) at the soldiers who are stood just beyond the range of stone-throwers. Then the protest managers are gone – vanished.

    I know what is about to unfold. I have just seen two snipers (in this instance, Palestinians), slip into position, well-back, concealed on a hillside over-looking the crossroads. It is a sad sight – the young people massing before me are not dangerous; they generally are decent, sincere young people, angry at the expanding settler-occupation, and hyped by the ‘animators’ sent amongst the crowd to stoke emotions. They are not bad young people.

    I am sad, because some, I know, will soon be dead, their families mourning a child’s loss tonight. But they are the fodder – innocent fodder – and this is war. At the height of confrontation, the snipers begin. Just a couple of rounds, but enough; they fire with silenced weapons. The Israelis soldiers cannot tell (unlike me), the source of the firing. A number of Palestinian youth fall dead; the mood incandescent. Purpose achieved.

    Why do I write about these twenty-year old events? Because I know well the patterns. I have seen them often. It is a playbook widely used. And I see familiar tell-tales emerging in the videos posted on the current protests in America.

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    Most notable, are the ubiquitous palettes of bricks that mysteriously appear in the background to many videos of the protests (see here for a typical selection). Who is positioning them? Who is paying? U.S. commentator, Michael Snyder, too has noted the “complex network of bicycle scouts to move ahead of demonstrators in different directions of where police were, and where police were not, for purposes of being able to direct groups from the larger group to… where they thought officers would not be.”

    He observes too, the anticipatory raising of bail money; the preparing of medical teams, ready to treat injuries; and of caches of flammable materials (suitable for torching official vehicles), pre-positioned in places where protests would later occur. All this – with simultaneous protests in more than 380 U.S. cities – in my experience, signals much bigger, silent backstage organization. And behind ‘the organisation’, the instigators lie, far back: maybe even thousands of miles back; and somewhere out there will be the financier.

    However, in the U.S., commentators say they see no leadership; the protests are amorphous. That is not unusual to see no leadership – a ‘leadership’ appears only if negotiations are sought and planned; otherwise key actors are to be protected from arrest. The most telling sign of a backstage organisation is that on one day, it is ‘full on’, and the next all is quiet – as if a switch has been pulled. It often has.

    Of course, the overwhelming majority of protestors in the U.S. this last week, were – and are – decent sincere Americans, outraged at George Floyd’s killing and continuing social and institutional racism. Was this then, an Antifa and anarchist operation, as the White House contends? I doubt it – any more than those Palestinian youth in Beit El constituted anything other than fodder for the front of stage. We simply don’t know the backstage. Keep an open mind.

    Tom Luongo presciently suggests that should we wish to understand better the context to these recent events – and not be stuck at stage appearances – we need to look to Hong Kong for indicators.

    Writing in October 2019, Luongo noted that: “What started as peaceful protests against an extradition law and worry over reunification with China has morphed into an ugly and vicious assault on the city’s economic future. [This is] being perpetrated by the so-called “Block Bloc”, roving bands of mask-wearing, police-tactic defying vandals attacking randomly around the city to disrupt people going to work”.

    An exasperated local man exclaims: “Not only you [i.e. Block Bloc protestors are] harming the people making their living in businesses, companies, shopping malls. You’re destroying subway stations. You’re destroying our streets. You’re destroying our hard-earned reputation as a safe, international business centre. You’re destroying our economy”. The man cannot explain why there was not a single police officer in sight, for hours, as the rampage continued.

    What is going on? Luongo quotes a September Bloomberg interview with HK tycoon, Jimmy Lai, billionaire publisher of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) scourge, the Apple Daily, and the highly visible interlocutor of official Washington notables, such as Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo and John Bolton. In it, Lai pronounced himself convinced that if protests in HK turned violent, China would have no choice but to send the People’s Armed Police units from Shenzen into Hong Kong to put down unrest: “That,” Lai said on Bloomberg TV, “will be a repeat of the Tiananmen Square massacre; and that will bring in the whole world against China … Hong Kong will be done, and … China will be done, too”.

    In brief, Lai proposes to ‘burn’ Hong Kong – to ‘save’ Hong Kong. That is, ‘burn it to save it’ from the CCP – to keep its residue in the ‘Anglo-sphere’.

    “Jimmy Lai”, Luongo writes, “is telling you what the strategy is here. The goal is to thoroughly undermine China’s standing on the world stage and raise that of the U.S. This is economic warfare, it’s a hybrid war tactic. And the soldiers are radicalized kids in uniforms bonking old men on the heads with sticks and taunting cops. Sound familiar? Because that’s what’s going on in places like Portland, Oregon with Antifa … And that cause is chaos”. (Recall, Luongo wrote this more than six months ago).

    Well, here we are today: Steve Bannon, closely allied with what he, himself, terms the U.S.’ China super-hawks, and allied with yet another Chinese billionaire financier, Guo Wengui (a fugitive from the Chinese Authorities, and member at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club), is pursuing an incandescent campaign of denigration and vitriol against the Chinese Communist Party – intended, like Lai’s campaign, to destroy utterly China’s global standing.

    Here it is again – the tightly-knit band of U.S. and exile super-hawks want to ‘burn’ down the CCP, to ‘save’ what? To save the ‘Empire Waning’ (America), through ‘burning’ the ‘Empire Rising’ (China). Bannon (at least, and to his credit), is explicit about the risk: A failure to prevail in this this info-war mounted against the CCP, he says, will end in “kinetic war”.

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    Via The New York Times

    So, back to the U.S. protests, and drawing on Luongo’s insights from Hong Kong – I wrote last week that Trump sees himself fighting a hidden global ‘war’ to retain America’s present dominance over global money (the dollar) – now America’s principal source of external power. For America to lose this struggle to a putative multi-lateral cosmopolitan governance – Trump perceives – would result in the whole, white Anglo-sphere’s ejection from control over the global financial system – and its associated political privilege. It would entail control of the global financial and political system slipping away to an amorphous multi-lateral financial governance, operated by an international institution, or some global Central Bank. Since before WW1, control of global financial governance has been in the hands of the Anglo-American nexus running between London and New York. It still does, just about – albeit that today’s Wall Street elite is cosmopolitan, rather than Anglo, yet still it is firmly anchored to Washington, via the Fed and the U.S. Treasury. For this to slip would be the ‘end of Empire’.

    To maintain the status of the dollar, Trump therefore has assiduously devoted himself to disrupting the multi-lateral global order, sensing this danger to the unique privileges conveyed by control of the world’s monetary base. His particular concern would be to see a Europe that was umbilically-linked to the financial and technological heavy-weight that is China. This, in itself, effectively would presage a different world financial governance.

    But, is the fear that the threat principally lies with Europe’s Soros-style vision justified? There may – just as well – be a fifth-column at home. The billionaires’ club of the very rich has long ceased to be culturally ‘Anglo’. It has become a borderless, ‘self-selecting’, governing entity unto itself.

    Perhaps an earlier ‘end of Époque’ metamorphosis shows us how readily an old-established elite can swap horses in order to survive. In the historical Sicilian novel, The Leopard, Prince Salina’s nephew tells his uncle that the old order is ‘done’, and with it, the family is ‘done’ too, unless … “Unless we ourselves take a hand now, they’ll foist a republic on us. If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change”.

    It is clear that some billionaire oligarchs – whether American or not – can see the ‘writing on the wall’: A financial crisis is coming. And so, too, is a social one. A recent survey done by one such member, showed that 55% of American millennials supported the end to the capitalist system. Perhaps the brotherhood of billionaires is thinking that ‘unless we ourselves take a hand now, they’ll foist socialism on us’. If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change. The recent disorder in the U.S. will have unnerved them further.

    The push towards radical change – towards that global financial, political and ecological governance that threatens dollar hegemony – paradoxically may emerge from within: from within America’s own financial elite.  ‘Burning’ the dollar’s privileged global status may become seen as the price for things to stay as they are — and for the elite to be saved. The future of Empire hangs on this issue: Can US dollar hegemony be preserved, or might the financial ‘nobility’ see that things must change – if they are to stay as they are? That is, the Revolution may come from within — and not necessarily from abroad.

    In recent days, Trump has pivoted to being the President of ‘Law and Order’ – a shift which he explicitly connected to 1968, when, in response to protests in Minneapolis after the police suffocation last week of George Floyd, Trump tweeted: “When the looting begins, the shooting starts”. These were the words used by Governor George Wallace, the segregationist third-party candidate, in the 1968 Presidential election: Republicans launched their “southern strategy” to win over resentful white Democrats after the civil rights revolution.

    Trump is determined to prevail – but today is not 1968. Can a Law and Order platform work now? U.S. demography in the south has shifted, and it is not clear that the liberal, urban electorates of America would sign up to a law-and-order platform, which implicitly appeals to white anxieties?

    In a sense, President Trump finds himself between a rock and a hard place. If the protests are not quelled, and “the right normal (not) restored” (as per Esper’s words), Trump may lose those remaining ‘law and order’ conservatives. But, were he to lose control and over-react using the military, then it may be Trump who has his own ‘Tiananmen Square’ – one, which Jimmy Lai (gleefully) predicted in Hong Kong’s case would bring in the whole world against China: “Hong Kong will be done, and … China will be done, too.”

    Or, in this instance, Trump might be done, and… the U.S. too.

  • Visualizing The Racial Wealth Gap In America
    Visualizing The Racial Wealth Gap In America

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 23:00

    People of color have faced economic inequality for generations, and the recent wave of Black Lives Matter protests has renewed discussions on these disparities.

    Compared to White families, other races have lower levels of income and net worth., and as Visual Capitalist’s Jenna Ross notes, they are also less likely to hold assets of any type. In fact, 19% of Black families have zero or negative net worth, while only 9% of White households have no wealth.

    Today’s chart uses data from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances to highlight the racial wealth gap, and the proportion of households that own different kinds of assets by racial group.

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    Asset Types Held By Race

    The financial profile between racial groups varies widely. Below is the percentage of U.S. families with each type of asset, according to the most recent survey from 2016.

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    Vehicles are the most common asset across all racial groups, followed by a primary residence.

    However, the level of equity—or home value less debts—families have in their houses differs by race. White families have equity of $215,800, whereas Black and Hispanic households have net housing wealth of $94,400 and $129,800 respectively.

    In addition, White households are more likely to hold financial assets such as retirement accounts, family businesses, and stocks. These assets are instrumental in building wealth, and are prominent in the wealth composition of America’s richest families.

    With fewer people of color holding these assets, they miss out on higher average returns than low-risk assets, as well as the power of compound interest. These portfolio differences are striking, but they are not the most important contributing factor in the racial wealth gap.

    Demographic and Economic Variations

    White households are also more likely to have demographic characteristics that are associated with wealth. According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, they are:

    • Older, with more than half of households age 55 and up
    • More highly educated, with 51% having some type of degree
    • Less likely to have a single parent
    • More likely to have received an inheritance

    For example, 39% of White heads of households have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 23% and 17% for Black and Hispanic household heads, respectively. However, education doesn’t fully explain the wealth inequities.

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    Enormous wealth disparities exist between families with the same education level. Even in cases where Black and Hispanic household heads have obtained a bachelor’s degree, their families’ median wealth of $68,000 and $78,000 respectively is still lower than the $98,000 median wealth for White families where the head has no bachelor’s degree.

    After accounting for demographic factors, researchers still found there were considerable inequities. What, then, could be primarily responsible for the racial wealth gap?

    The Income Gap

    While previous research found that the wealth gap is “too big” to be explained by a difference in income, a recent study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland offers a new perspective. Focusing on White and Black U.S. households only, researchers analyzed the dynamics of wealth accumulation over time, as opposed to previous studies that considered short time periods.

    They found that income inequality was the primary contributor to the racial wealth gap. According to the model, if Black and White households had earned the same labor income from 1962 onwards, the Black-to-White wealth ratio would have reached 0.9 by 2007.

    Moving forward, the study concludes that policy changes will likely have a positive impact if they address issues contributing to income gaps. This includes reducing racial discrimination in the labor market, and creating programs, such as mentorships, that improve environments for specific racial subgroups.

  • How Do You Prepare For A Revolution?
    How Do You Prepare For A Revolution?

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 22:30

    Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

    As all hell breaks loose across the United States of America (and we haven’t even gotten to the election yet), a resistance movement to the status quo seems to be increasingly violent, taking over a Minneapolis police precinct and an area in downtown Seattle. Protests continue to be peaceful in some areas but show little signs of letting up.

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    A lot of folks are pretty sure that a revolution is coming – and many people say it’s already here.

    I got a great question in a group that I moderate: how do you prepare for a revolution?

    As preppers, this is always our go-to response to trouble. We want to know what we can do, specifically, to meet the crisis head-on and keep our families safe.

    How do you prepare for a revolution?

    In this article, I want to speak specifically about the practical steps you need to take to be prepared for a revolution if things should come to that point across the country. This article is not about philosophy or right vs. wrong. It’s not about fighting for your “side” whatever side that might be. It’s about surviving. There are lots of links because I’m not reinventing the entire wheel here – that would be a book on its own. This is merely a guideline so you know where to focus your time, money, and attention.

    I pondered the question for quite a while before answering because it isn’t really a situation I had given a lot of thought to before.

    The answer is really not anything earth-shattering. In fact, many will probably find it underwhelming.

    You prepare for a revolution by simply continuing to prep. Specifically, consider prepping for the following:

    • Supply chain disruption and shortages of food
    • Supply chain disruption and shortages of material goods
    • Civil unrest
    • Disruption of utilities
    • Disruption of services

    So for the most part, this is general prepping. The event causing all the disruptions may be different but the end result is the same. Let’s talk about each of these things.

    Supply chain disruption and shortages of food

    We’re already beginning to see disruptions of the food supply due to the COVID pandemic. Imports have been interrupted and distribution processes have utterly failed. As I wrote before, farmers are being forced to cull livestock and plow under produce because they have no way to get it to consumers.

    In an uncertain future, these difficulties could continue or even become worse through strategic blockades.

    Here are some things you can do:

    • Now is the time to make sure you’re stocked up. This book can help.
    • Localize your supply chain. Look for local farmers and purchase food in bulk.
    • Learn how to preserve food. Here are guides for canning foods and dehydrating foods to make them shelf-stable.
    • Learn how to acquire food with hunting, snaring, fishing, and foraging.

    Become responsible for your own food supply. Stores may not be reliable sources.

    Supply chain disruption and shortages of material goods

    A shocking amount of our general supplies are imported. Here’s a list of things that come from China alone. Not only are imports disrupted but so is distribution in general. You may have noticed if you’ve been in any stores since things reopened that there are a lot of bare spots on the shelves and that you don’t have the same amount of choices as you did before the outbreak.

    Things like bedding, clothing, footwear, tools, dishes, and hardware are sparse in many parts of the country. Here are a few steps you can take.

    • Focus on repairing instead of replacing.
    • If you do have to discard something, strip it of its useful parts. Sort out screws, fasteners, buttons, laces, etc., and store them for the time you need them.
    • Buy sturdy clothing now: pick up winter jackets, shoes, jeans, and practical clothes. For children, you may want to purchase things a size or two up from what they’re currently wearing.
    • Every time you go to the store, grab basic items like toilet paper, aluminum foil, ziplock bags, or other things you normally use.
    • Look for reusable options for things you’d normally throw out after one use.
    • Stock up on the tools you might need to repair, make, or mend things in the future.
    • If there are things you’ve been planning to replace or update, do it now if it’s an essential item. You might not be able to do so later.

    Take time now to get ready for a world that could be poorly stocked.

    Civil unrest

    We’ve published a lot of articles recently about surviving civil unrest, with the number one phrase you’ll read being “don’t be there.” In essence, a revolution is civil unrest with heavier firepower. You’ll still be avoiding angry crowds, hardening your home, and keeping your family together, just on an even more life-threatening scale. You’ll definitely want to check out this on-demand webinar where Selco discusses his experiences and gives advice about surviving riots and unrest.

    That being said, much of the same advice applies. Here are resources that may help you get prepared for this.

    We’re in relatively uncharted territory right now. It’s important to make your plans well before things erupt. Don’t be so tied to a place or a pile of things to the point that you’re willing to risk your life (or the lives of your families) to face a horde against whom you have no chance of survival. Be willing to be adaptable and resilient – your life could depend on it.

    Know where you’re going to go if you have to bug out and how you’ll get there. (Here’s a PDF guide for bug-out plans.) And for goodness sake, stop thinking it’s shameful to bug out and don’t listen to anyone who tells you that it is. Your goal here is survival, not posthumous glory.

    Disruption of services

    Even with the current level of unrest and the recent pandemic, some areas have experienced the disruption of services we take for granted. Calling 911 in the event of an emergency and having someone show up, going to the emergency room and receiving prompt care, being able to have medical treatments that aren’t non-emergency but are still important, being able to call the fire department and have them come save your home – in the United States all of these things have been in question in at least some areas this year.

    If civil unrest continues to grow at its current rate, you can expect these problems to worsen and widen to areas previously unaffected. Right now, there is more than one police precinct in the US that has been overrun by protesters. Fire trucks haven’t been able to get past mobs to deal with buildings that are aflame. People waited so long for urgent medical treatments that they died as hospitals were closed due to COVID.

    What can we learn from this? We could find ourselves completely on our own and we should proceed as though we will be.

    We need to be prepared to be our own first responders with regard to emergency medical care, low-level fires, and home security. I’m not saying you need to be ready to fight a five-alarm fire with a garden hose but at the very least, learn about the different types of fires, have fire extinguishers, and keep your fire-fighting equipment maintained in good working order. Know how to stop bleeding and perform CPR.

    Disruption of utilities

    Another possibility is the disruption of utilities like power, water, internet, and communications. This could occur organically as the side effect of a natural event like a storm or if it was caused by humans, due to government interference or guerilla sabotage.

    Taking out the power is not an unusual action for governments to take when they’re trying to regain control of an area. It happened in Venezuela, although the government there blamed the United States and has been threatened in California as a move against businesses that didn’t follow the rules of the COVID shutdown.

    In Egypt, during the Arab Spring riots, the government there took control of the internet, and just recently there was an alleged communication blackout in Washington, DC which turned out to be misinformation. The power grid was deliberately sabotaged in California at least once and the threat of sabotage against public water supplies is of constant concern to providers.

    The question isn’t really “can it happen?” or “will it happen?” – it’s more a matter of when.

    It’s pretty likely if things became incredibly heated that it would. Taking away these vital services and limiting the ability to communicate are both standard tactics. Think about hostage situations – negotiators often turn off the AC on a sweltering day and jam phone service.

    To prepare for this kind of thing, you need, again, to go back to the basics you’re already putting in place.

    Obviously, you’ll also want to have ways to keep folks entertained and at least moderately content if the internet and power are down.

    Remember OPSEC.

    Another thing to consider in times of revolution and widespread tensions is OPSEC. Not so much the kind where you’re being very careful that nobody knows you’re a prepper (although that is always important) but more the kind where nobody really knows what your thoughts are on volatile matters.

    Survivalist author Selco Begovic explains this further.

    If we are talking about a “revolution” event, there is a saying about it that “what was down goes up” (and vice versa), and in addition to that things might get pretty radical. In essence, that means that you should pay extra attention to OPSEC.

    It is always important of course, but in times like this, even when they are temporary, it is very easy to get labeled as an “enemy”, and to be an enemy in this violent and very emotional times is dangerous, simply because things might happen in a way without too much logic and very fast.

    In the time it takes to prove yourself that you do not have anything to do with some event, or that you are not an enemy or threat it already can be too late.

    Always have in mind that when times get turbulent and violent, some of your indiscretions or breaches of OPSEC before the event can simply label you as an enemy. And there may not be time for law and logic in those times.

    Always be aware of what kind of information you are giving up about yourself with how you look, act, and what you say. Do not be paranoid but use common sense. Be careful, and follow OPSEC practice as much as you can.

    So, now isn’t the time for your political bumper stickers and t-shirts. It’s not the time to publicly announce your support of causes that could one day make you “the enemy.” You may want to tone down your rhetoric on social media because the internet is forever and this stuff can come back and bite you in the rear end.

    We’ve all heard about the so-called “cancel culture” in which a person can lose his or her livelihood for having an unpopular opinion. It’s pretty extreme now – it can affect your whole life. Imagine how incredibly dangerous it would be in a world ripped asunder by a violent revolution.

    You’re really just going back to basics.

    Remember when the pandemic was beginning and people were frantically asking what to do? In his usual succinct way, Selco said “get ahold of yourself and go back to basics.”

    This is true of just about any situation you’ll ever find yourself in. Of course, there are a few factors that are unique to any scenario, but going back to basics is always your best option. Break down the different facets of the emergency and you’ll nearly always realize that preparations you’ve already made for other purposes will apply.

    What with the election coming up, we could be in for an extremely bumpy year. As the saying goes, let’s hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

  • While The Industry Crumbles, One Airline Is Making Money Hand Over Fist Shipping Pigs To China
    While The Industry Crumbles, One Airline Is Making Money Hand Over Fist Shipping Pigs To China

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 22:00

    While most of the aviation industry has been decimated as a result of the pandemic and its ensuing stay-at-home orders, one airliner is making money hand over fist in an unexpected way: shipping pigs to China in 747 Jumbo Jets.

    Volga-Dnepr Group has flown more than 3,000 breeding pigs to China from France this year, according to Bloomberg. They are flown almost 6,500 miles in wooden crates and are being used to restore livestock levels in China. From there, they are being used to address the country’s pork shortage.

    The country’s swine shortages were exacerbated by the pandemic and China has imported almost 255,000 tons of pork from the U.S. in the first four months of 2020 alone. That number exceeds the 245,000 it imported in all of 2019. 

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    Volga-Dnepr Group also has been shipping masks, hazmat suits, medical equipment and street-disinfecting equipment to places like Russia and Germany. The company saw its sales skyrocket 32% to $630 million this year.

    Alexey Isaykin, who holds a $700 million stake in the company, said: “Global aviation is going through its most challenging time ever, but for cargo carriers like us it’s a chance. Previously, more than half of all aviation cargoes were carried in the luggage compartments of passenger planes. With this supply vanishing from the market, demand for cargo airlines surged and prices more than doubled.”

    While demand for air freight has dropped 28%, capacity has fallen by 42%. This could help the company tack on even more revenue, he says, predicting a $2 billion annual run rate. 

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    Shipments for the aerospace industry have fallen by about 33%, he says, but medical goods now make up more than half of global air freight. Online shopping firms like Amazon.com and Alibaba are also seeing outsized growth. Some of the demand may prove to be short-lived and freight rates are starting to decline slightly. Regardless, Isaykin expects volume and prices to remain above pre-virus levels. 

    “The geography of our shipments is expanding, following the spread of coronavirus. We just started shipping Chinese medical goods to Africa and are getting first inquiries from Latin America. I think India will be next,” Isaykin said.

    He concluded: “An interesting trend is gaining traction now — we call it the medieval period of the 21st century — when strategically important production facilities are being relocated to reduce dependence on China. I am expecting this trend to accelerate toward year-end.”

     

  • Narrative Control Operations Escalate As America Burns
    Narrative Control Operations Escalate As America Burns

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 21:30

    Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Medium.com,

    Wikipedia, Facebook, Twitter, and mainstream media are falling all over themselves with censorship and spin jobs to get the narrative back under control as mass protests continue to sweep across America.

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    In 2017, representatives of Facebook, Twitter, and Google were instructed in a US Senate Judiciary Committee hearing that it is their responsibility to “quell information rebellions” and adopt a “mission statement” expressing their commitment to “prevent the fomenting of discord.”

    “Civil wars don’t start with gunshots, they start with words,” the representatives were told by cold warrior think tank denizen Clint Watts. “America’s war with itself has already begun. We all must act now on the social media battlefield to quell information rebellions that can quickly lead to violent confrontations and easily transform us into the Divided States of America.”

    “Stopping the false information artillery barrage landing on social media users comes only when those outlets distributing bogus stories are silenced — silence the guns and the barrage will end,” Watts added.

    Those words rattle around in the memory now as America burns with nationwide protests demanding an end to the police state, and as narrative control operations ramp up with frantic urgency.

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    The Grayzone reports that it has been blacklisted as a source on Wikipedia following a concerted campaign by a suspicious-looking group of editor accounts, many of whom appear to have ties to the right-wing opposition in Venezuela. Wikipedia, whose co-founder once told the US Senate that the online encyclopedia project “may be helpful to government operations and homeland security”, has added The Grayzone to a very short list of outlets that are never to be used under any circumstances, claiming on apparently no basis whatsoever that it publishes false information.

    “In fact, in its more than four years of existence, including its first two years hosted at the website AlterNet (whose use is not forbidden on Wikipedia), The Grayzone has never had to issue a major correction or retract a story,” Grayzone’s Ben Norton says in its report on the matter. Norton documents how the Wikipedia editors are unable to cite any actual false information in any of the outlet’s publications in their arguments, leaving only their objection that Grayzone doesn’t parrot US government-approved narratives like The New York Times, Bellingcat, and Wikipedia’s other designated “reliable sources”.

    Norton also notes how Wikipedia has designated the leak publication outlet WikiLeaks an unreliable source despite its nearly 14-year record of authentic publications. Wikipedia designates WikiLeaks as “generally unreliable,” making the utterly baseless claim that “there are concerns regarding whether the documents are genuine or tampered.”

    “The internet encyclopedia has become a deeply undemocratic platform, dominated by Western state-backed actors and corporate public relations flacks, easily manipulated by powerful forces. And it is run by figures who often represent these same elite interests, or align with their regime-change politics,” Norton writes.

    Norton’s breakdown of the ways Wikipedia is slanted to consistently favor pro-establishment narratives is comprehensive, and well worth reading in its entirety. This short Mintpress News article by Alan MacLeod on the way this same monopolistic editing dynamic has seen MintpressteleSur English, and Venezuela Analysis blacklisted from Wikipedia in the same way is also worth a look.

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    This all comes out as we learn that Facebook is attaching warning labels to posts from outlets sponsored by governments which have not been absorbed into the US-centralized empire like RT and CGTN, but attaching no such label to outlets funded by imperial governments like BBC and Radio Free Europe. There is not any discernible difference in the degree of bias shown in state media from unabsorbed nations like Russia and China than there is in state media from the US and UK (or oligarchic media from the US and UK for that matter), but Facebook causes its 2.6 billion active users to look at one with suspicion but not the other.

    This also comes out at the same time we learn that Twitter has deleted over 170,000 accounts for “spreading geopolitical narratives favorable to the Communist Party of China”. CNN reports (in an article which also cites the analysis of the scandal-ridden narrative manager Renee DiResta) that the accounts were determined to be “tied to the Chinese government” by “experts” who we learn later in the article are none other than the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), a think tank geared explicitly toward fomenting anti-China sentiment in Australia.

    “Former Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr has slammed ASPI for pushing a ‘one-sided, pro-American view of the world’, while the former Australian ambassador to China Geoff Raby added that ASPI is ‘the architect of the China threat theory in Australia’,” journalist Ajit Singh noted on Twitter, adding, “Australian Senator Kim Carr has slammed ASPI for seeking to ‘promote a new cold war with China’ in collaboration with the US. In February, Carr highlighted that ASPI received $450,000 funding from the US State Department in 2019–20.”

    This blatant imperialist narrative manipulation operation are the “experts” Twitter consulted in determining which accounts were “tied to the Chinese government” and therefore needed to be silenced. Twitter meanwhile continues to allow known fake accounts like the MEK propaganda operation “Heshmat Alavi” to continue inauthentically posing as real people, even when their propaganda is publicized by the President of the United States, because such accounts toe the imperialist line against empire-targeted governments. This pro-imperialism slant is standard for all Silicon Valley tech giants.

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    This also comes out at the same time the mass media are warning us that Russia, China and Iran are “employing state media, proxy outlets, and social media accounts to amplify criticism of the United States related to the death of George Floyd and subsequent events.”

    “As protesters hit the streets in cities across the country, America’s foreign adversaries have flooded social media with content meant to sow division and discord in the wake of George Floyd’s death, according to a U.S. government intelligence bulletin obtained by ABC News,” we are told by the Disney-owned ABC.

    “These actors criticize the United States as hypocritical, corrupt, undemocratic, racist, guilty of human rights abuses and on the verge of collapsing,” the bulletin reads, which to anyone who’s been paying attention is obviously true. This is a news story about people from other countries saying true things about the United States of America.

    “This is yet another indicator that Russia is using the combination of overt propaganda and covertly disseminated disinformation to sow discord across our populace, expand the cracks in our society, and undermine the credibility of the U.S. government,” former senior Department of Homeland Security official and current ABC News contributor John Cohen informs us.

    Ahh, okay. Cool. Thank you for the information, former senior Department of Homeland Security official and current ABC News contributor John Cohen. Man it sure is a good thing America doesn’t have state media. Think about how bad the disinformation would be.

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    Social media outlets were told that they need to censor their platforms to “prevent the fomenting of discord,” but obviously they didn’t move quickly enough, because the discord has been well and truly fomented. And now they are in a mad scramble to prevent Americans from hearing what people in foreign nations have to say about that, still apparently laboring under the delusion that this is anything other than homegrown, purebred, cornfed, American-as-apple-pie discord.

    The most distinctive feature of the last four years has been expanding consciousness. Expanding consciousness of media corruption, of DNC corruption, of government corruption, of the excessive amount of power wielded by the US presidency and the absurd esteem people used to have for that position, of the abuse of immigrants, of police militarization, of unhealed racial wounds, etc.

    This is encouraging, because you can’t fix something you haven’t made conscious. This is true of our own unresolved psychological issues, and it’s true of our unresolved collective issues as well. The first step toward a healthy world is expanded consciousness.

    This is why increasing government opacity, internet censorship, and the war on journalism are so dangerous. Corruption and abuse thrive in darkness, and corrupt abusers want to keep that darkness intact. They want to keep things as unconscious as possible.

    It’s beginning to look like that cat’s out of the bag, though, and I would be very surprised if they ever manage to get that sucker back in there.

    What an exciting time to be alive.

    *  *  *

    Thanks for reading! The best way to get around the internet censors and make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for my website, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, liking me on Facebook, following my antics onTwitter, checking out my podcast on either YoutubesoundcloudApple podcasts or Spotify, following me on Steemit, throwing some money into my tip jar on Patreon or Paypal, purchasing some of my sweet merchandise, buying my books Rogue Nation: Psychonautical Adventures With Caitlin Johnstone and Woke: A Field Guide for Utopia Preppers. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge.

    Bitcoin donations:1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2

  • "It's Over, America": Tulsa Police Major Says Cops Across Country On Verge Of Quitting
    “It’s Over, America”: Tulsa Police Major Says Cops Across Country On Verge Of Quitting

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 21:00

    A Tulsa, Oklahoma police major says he’s “extremely concerned” that cops across America are on the verge of quitting amid global protests against law enforcement.

    Every department, every officer you talk to is looking to leave,” Maj. Travis Yates told Fox News‘ “Tucker Carlson Tonight,” adding that he is “extremely concerned” for the future of law enforcement.

    Yates told Carlson that held felt morale among law enforcement officers “was really low” following the 2014 shooting of Michael Brown by then-Ferguson, Mo. police officer Darren Wilson.

    “As everybody knows, President Obama’s administration found no evidence of wrongdoing in Ferguson even though the narrative is quite different …,” he said. “We were making a resurgence in recent years and this [George Floyd’s death and the aftermath] has been devastating. This has been Ferguson times 1,000. Every department, every officer you talk to is looking to leave.” -Fox News

    https://video.foxnews.com/v/embed.js?id=6163811077001&w=466&h=263Watch the latest video at foxnews.com

    Yates published a column last Friday on the website LawOfficer.com titled “America, We Are Leaving.”

    In it, he recalls growing up in a law enforcement family – and characterized police as “Men and women of all races with the same mission, to make the community safer.

    27 years has passed and if you would have told me the condition of law enforcement today, I would have never believed you.

    The mentally ill used to get treatment and now they just send cops. Kids used to be taught respect and now it’s cool to be disrespectful.

    Supervisors used to back you when you were right but now they accuse you of being wrong in order to appease crazy people.

    Parents used to get mad at their kids for getting arrested and now they get mad at us.

    The media used to highlight the positive contribution our profession gave to society and now they either ignore it or twist the truth for controversy to line their own pockets. –Travis Yates

    “I wouldn’t wish this job on my worst enemy,” wrote Yates. “I would never send anyone I cared about into the hell that this profession has become … I used to talk cops out of leaving the job. Now I’m encouraging them. It’s over, America. You finally did it You aren’t going to have to abolish the police, we won’t be around for it.”

    Yates told Carlson that “officers are afraid to speak out, they are afraid to talk,” adding “You are only your next call away from being canceled or destroyed, and so officers feel very limited. I think citizens do, too, and we had just as many citizens comment on that article and send us emails.”

    According to Yates, some officers feel stuck because they haven’t worked long enough to earn a pension.

    “The officers with 15 years on can’t leave yet,” he said, adding “I’ve heard from hundreds of people that are discouraged. They love the job, they love the community, they love the people, but all this chaos is wearing them every single day.”

    Last Tuesday, NYPD union boss Mike O’Meara railed against the MSM for ‘vilifying’ the police, saying “Stop treating us like animals and thugs and start treating us with some respect.

  • Republic Of CHAZ Begins Reparations; White Participants Pressured To Give Blacks $10 Each
    Republic Of CHAZ Begins Reparations; White Participants Pressured To Give Blacks $10 Each

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 20:44

    Seattle’s so-called Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone (CHAZ) has begun reparations, as white members of the fledgling sovereignty were asked on Friday night to give at least one black person $10 before leaving the area.

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    “I want you to find, by the time you leave this autonomous zone, I want you to give ten dollars to one African American person from this autonomous zone. And if you find that’s difficult – if you find it’s hard for you to give ten dollars to people of color, to black people expecially [sic], you have to think really critically about – in the future, are you going to actually give up power and land and capital when you have it?

    If you have a hard time giving up ten dollars, you have to think about: are you really down with this struggle? Are you really down with the movement? Because if that is a challenge for you, I’m not sure if you’re in the right place.

    So find an African American person. White people, I see you. I see every one of you, and I remember your faces. You find that African American person and you give them ten dollars. Cash up, venmo, ten dollars in your pocket. That’s my challenge to you. Do it.

    In short, cough up or GTFO.

    Meanwhile, CHAZ’s efforts at gardening appear to be ill-fated. Perhaps they will cross their fortified borders into the United States to resupply at the local Whole Foods.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jshttps://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsAnd the Antifa Republic’s tolerance for religion is somewhat lacking:

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  • Universities Everywhere Are Concerned About A 'Virus', But Not The One You Think
    Universities Everywhere Are Concerned About A ‘Virus’, But Not The One You Think

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 20:30

    Authored by Alex Munugia via Campus Reform,

    Amid racial tensions in the United States, colleges and universities across the country have a new favorite metaphor: comparing the “virus of racism” to the novel virus that has upended the country. 

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    After George Floyd was killed while in Minneapolis police custody, the University of Michigan Engineering department called upon students to “help eradicate the virus of racism.”

    “For over two months, we have been dealing with the coronavirus, a pandemic that has shaken the core of our institution and the world. It has been a lot to deal with; and has at times felt overwhelming. Yet during the past week, another virus reared its ugly head,” read the official university communication.

    “This virus is called RACISM,” the statement adds.

    “Racism has been in the fabric of the country since its inception. It is so tightly entwined in our socialization that it has been second nature in driving behavior,” the message continued.

    “Systemic racism is very much like a virus. Much like the COVID-19 virus, racist attitudes spread very easily and are very damaging.”

    In a recent message to students, interim president Marica White of Saint Rose College in Albany, New York, also compared the COVID-19 pandemic to the “virus of systemic racism” in America, stating “one is novel and invisible, the other is violent and imbedded [sic] in the culture and history of our nation.”

    White went on to blame the impact COVID-19 has had on the African American community on “the imbedded inequity in our country,” mainly blaming what she believes are systemic injustices.

    Dean Barbara Rimer at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill stated in an official June 1 university communication that “racism is a public health emergency” and that “like a virus, racism is insidious and can damage everything it infiltrates.” Rimer added that law enforcement violence is a “symptom of the racism that still marks too many facets of modern American society,” and called “racism” a “disease, a virus that has infected America for 400 years.”

    In a similar communication, Chapman University dean Rev. Gail Stearns remarked to the university community about both the challenges of coronavirus and the “virus of racism that has haunted us for generations.” Her concerns about the coronavirus focused largely on the unequal distribution of its impact on individuals, noting that African American communities were hit harder because they “lack access to basic nutrition or healthcare or education.”

    “I have come to believe that in the face of COVID-19, we are all experiencing grief. Almost every one of us is experiencing the stress of loss. But stress is not distributed equally in our society,” wrote Stearns, before she went on to refer to racism itself as a “virus” and urge the community to “ no longer collectively avoid the reparation of years of injustice.”

  • Man Barely Survives COVID-19 Only To Be Hit With $1.1 Million Hospital Bill
    Man Barely Survives COVID-19 Only To Be Hit With $1.1 Million Hospital Bill

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 20:00

    A 70-year old Seattle man who entered an Issaquah, Washington hospital two months ago is considered the longest-hospitalized COVID-19 patient in the US after he fought through the disease, against all expectations coming out healthy despite what were considered multiple near death moments. While Michael Flor’s survival story was celebrated by local and national media upon his recent discharge, and cheered by medical staff, a new kind of shock awaited. 

    He was constantly attended to by nurses and doctors throughout the ordeal, at the end of which he was jokingly dubbed by staff “the miracle child”. He entered the hospital on March 4th, and had spent four weeks on a ventilator

    But The Seattle Times details that his health nearly took another blow upon exiting the hospital and seeing the whopping bill of over one million dollars.

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    70-year old Michael Flor leaving the hospital, via The Seattle Times.

    The report begins:

    But he says his heart almost failed a second time when he got the bill from his health care odyssey the other day.

    “I opened it and said ‘holy [bleep]!’“ Flor says.

    The total tab for his bout with the coronavirus: $1.1 million. $1,122,501.04, to be exact. All in one bill that’s more like a book because it runs to 181 pages.

    In all the nearly 200-page bill included 3,000 separate itemized charges, at a rate of about 50 per day, in what is likely a record for Seattle hospital system, Swedish.

    It gives a sense of what many thousands of other medium to long-term infected patients may be facing upon discharge, at a moment confirmed COVID-19 cases has surpassed two million in the US, and as hospitalizations once again surge in some states. 

    The example of Flor also underscores the outrageous, often contradictory and unnecessarily complicated, as well as opaque system of medical billing in America. Thankfully for him though, most of the massive bill is actually covered via insurance, including Medicare, but doesn’t mean that much of the whopping cost won’t be passed on to someone.

    “Flor said he’s hyper-aware that somebody is paying his million-dollar bill —  taxpayers, other insurance customers and so on,” Seattle Times notes.

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    ICU at Swedish Issaquah, via CityStream

    From the report, here’s a small taste of the mounting costs:

    • Intensive care unit room per day: $9,736
    • 42 days of intensive care room having to be “sealed” over virus contamination fears: a total of $408,912
    • 29 days on a ventilator: $2,835 per day, totaling $82,215
    • 2 days where a medical team implemented multiple emergency interventions: $100,000
    • Total bill: $1,122,501.04

    In the end Flor is of course happy to be alive but also feels “guilty” in seeing the huge extent of costly medical intervention and effort. 

    “It was a million bucks to save my life, and of course I’d say that’s money well-spent,” he told Seattle Times. “But I also know I might be the only one saying that.”

  • Florida Reports Another Record Jump In New Cases As Global COVID-19 Count Nears 8 Million: Live Updates
    Florida Reports Another Record Jump In New Cases As Global COVID-19 Count Nears 8 Million: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 19:44

    Summary:

    • Nevada reports 3rd-highest jump; NY reports latest numbers
    • LatAm accounted for 40% of cases reported Friday
    • Florida reports record jump for third day in a row
    • 23 states across US seeing case numbers rise
    • Latin America and US vie for global coronavirus leader
    • Beijing reimposes lockdowns in some areas after cluster discovered
    • Russia reported another 8k+ jump in cases
    • EU signs vaccine deal with AstraZeneca
    • Gilead strikes deal to distribute remdesivir in Europe

    * * *

    Update (1400ET): Once again, Beijing’s favorite English language mouthpiece (at least on Twitter) is chiming in to play down China’s latest outbreak, while castigating the US.

    Meanwhile, according to the WHO, infections in Latin America now exceed 1.4 million, more than a quarter of the global total, while LatAm accounts for 40% of all new cases.

    Mexico reported 5,222 cases on Friday, Chile announced 6,754 and Argentina had 1,391, all new highs. Chile registered its highest daily death toll to date, with 222. Brazil, the largest country in Latin America, has almost four times as many cases as any other country in the region.

    Italy registered 346 new cases Saturday, compared with a daily average of 274 this month through Friday. The country had a one-day peak of 6,557 on March 21.

    New York reported 32 deaths, “the lowest so far,” Governor Andrew Cuomo said, as new cases inched higher by 0.2%, in line with the seven-day average.

    Nevada health officials meanwhile reported 270 new cases, bringing the statewide total to 10,946 positive cases; 463 people have died from the virus statewide.

    Health officials said they’ve conducted at least 235,500 tests statewide.

    * * *

    Update (1130ET): Minutes after publishing this post, we’re already adding the day’s first withering stat: Florida has reported yet another record jump in newly confirmed cases, reporting a 3.6% jump statewide, compared with the 7-day average of 2.1%.

    For those who haven’t been closely following the situation, this is the third day in a row that Florida has reported a record jump in cases, and Saturday’s number (remember, they’re reported with a 24 hour delay, so these are cases confirmed on Friday), at 2,581, blows away the last daily record (which, again, was reported yesterday).

    Saturday marks the 10th day out of the past 11 that Florida has confirmed more than 1,000 new cases, a phenomenon blamed on the loosening social distancing restrictions across the state. Most of the cases are coming from the southern part of the state, with Miami-Dade County being one of the standouts.

    Florida now has 73,552 confirmed cases and 2,925 deaths linked to COVID-19, according to the latest numbers released by the health department on Saturday. In addition, the state confirmed 38 coronavirus-related deaths over the past day, including 13 in Miami-Dade County, seven in Broward and nine in Palm Beach County, Local10 reports.

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    Source: NYTimes

    Gov Ron DeSantis said that even though there are more cases, fewer people are going to the hospital, including in Miami-Dade. Asked Thursday if the state’s reopening plans could be rolled back because of the numbers, the governor pointed to the increase of testing and blamed it for the majority of the jump.

    “As you’re testing more you’re going to find more cases and most of the cases are subclinical cases,” DeSantis said. “And we expected that from the beginning. We’re doing 30,000-plus tests a day in terms of results on average…As people have been getting back to work, I think employers have told folks you should get tested, so we’re starting to see at our test sites a much younger demographic. So you do see 98% test negative but you do see some cases…usually no clinical consequence.”

    Statewide, Florida reports having completed over 1.3 million tests for COVID-19, with 5.4% coming back positive.

    * * *

    No matter how many times Larry Kudlow insists the US won’t resort to another round of lockdowns under any circumstances, Investors will inevitably pay close attention to the infection and hospitalization numbers out of the country’s second class of ‘hot spots’: California, Florida, Texas, Arkansas and the roughly 20 other states where infection rates are climbing.

    Granted, some of these states are arguing that the increase in testing rates is the primary driver of the higher confirmed infection numbers In Portland, where Gov. Kate Brown – who once threatened to take away a small business owner’s children if they dared defy the lockdown – has announced a one-week “pause” in the state’s reopening plans...even as she insists the increase in testing is mostly responsible for the spike.

    At this point, the inconsistent messaging coming from Democratic governors supports critics allegations that decisions to reimpose lockdowns, or delay the process of reopening, appear to be politically motivated. Though in Houston, it appears officials’ concerns about the city being “on the precipice” of another serious outbreak are (somewhat) justified.

    As “CBS This Morning” reported Saturday, “there are disturbing signs that the grip of the deadly coronavirus pandemic is tightening in some parts of the US as at least a dozen states see an uptick in COVID-19 cases. New virus hotspots are emerging in the South and Southwest, and some states like Texas, Arkansas, Arizona and California are in some areas seeing their largest daily infection numbers yet. Florida and Arkansas have been criticized for reopening some beaches and parks, and failing to enforce social distancing.

    Some experts argue that this is the consequence of reopening too early; others dismiss the numbers as merely a short-term rebound that we had already anticipated; and finally, others argue that it’s more complicated than all that, given that Georgia, one of the first states to start aggressively reopening, hasn’t reported the increase seen among several of its neighboring states.

    Yesterday, the CDC raised the prospect of another round of lockdowns, even as the White House has categorically dismissed the possibility; meanwhile, a new forecast is projecting 140,000 deaths in the US from COVID-19 by July 4. That’s compared with roughly 112,000 as of Saturday.

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    The warning isn’t exactly a surprise. During the past week, South Carolina and Florida showed their highest daily number of coronavirus cases yet. Arizona’s average daily cases nearly tripled over the past two weeks. And Texas saw four of its worst days so far in terms of hospitalizations.

    In Houston, there is a warning: “People should not take things lightly. Or assume that the virus is under control,” said Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner.

    Texas businesses and restaurants – among the first to reopen – could become the first to shut down again.

    “I want the reopening to be successful. I want the economy to be resilient,” said Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo. “But I’m growing increasingly concerned that we may be approaching the precipice – the precipice of a disaster.”

    Arizona is reporting more than 1,000 new cases per day, up from fewer than 400 a day in mid-May when stay-at-home orders started to ease.

    “I think the question of did we open too soon is a valid one,” said Frank Lovecchio, an emergency medicine doctor in the Phoenix area. He reports seeing a surge of severe cases requiring intubation.

    On Friday, North Carolina Gov Roy Cooper implored his citizens to try and help stop the spread after the state reported a record number of new cases in a single day…

    “The numbers show that the disease is spreading and that more people need hospital care. This has to be taken seriously,” he said. Utah and Oregon have delayed their reopenings by a week…

    “As I’ve said a zillion times: the virus makes the timelines. We don’t make the timelines,” Gov Brown said.

    …while in New Jersey, Governors Murphy and Cuomo are celebrating the fact that their states have the lowest rate of spread in the country.

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    According to the NYT, 23 states are still seeing daily case reports climb.

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    Worldwide, the number of coronavirus cases reported daily has once again started to climb as Russia and Latin American have emerged as the newest hotspots as the outbreaks in the Europe and at least part of the US have subsided. At last count, the world had nearly 7.7 million confirmed cases, and 426,000 confirmed kills.

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    Source: BBG

    In Europe, EU bureaucrats are already taking steps to secure supplies of still-untested vaccine prototypes as the global scramble to find a vaccine takes on an added urgency as thousands of politicians – including President Trump – find themselves making lofty promises about vaccine supplies that they might not be able to keep.

    Bloomberg reports that the EU has signed a deal with AstraZeneca for the pharma giant to supply Europe with as many as 400 million doses of Oxford University’s experimental vaccine candidate – the subject of one of the most closely watched trials in the world – at no profit.

    How generous!

    In other vaccine news, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories entered into a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Gilead to manufacture and sell its star experimental COVID-19 treatment remdesivir in 127 countries, including India, even though the verdict on its effectiveness remains elusive.

    News of the deal comes as Germany reports 572 new coronavirus cases Saturday morning, its highest daily tally in weeks, bringing the German total to 187,263. That compares with 169 the previous day and almost 7,000 at the peak of the pandemic in late March.

    Meanwhile, Russia reported 8,706 new confirmed infections, +1.7%, according to data from the government’s virus response center. Deaths rose by 114 to 6,829. Moscow accounted for 17% of new cases, and 34% of all new cases were asymptomatic. The country has more than 520k confirmed cases.

    As we reported earlier, Beijing is locking down a large swath of the southwestern part of the capital city after an outbreak reportedly stemming from a major seafood market and wholesaler.

  • 'Dangerous' Language Like "Defund The Police"
    ‘Dangerous’ Language Like “Defund The Police”

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 19:30

    Op-Ed by attorney and investigative journalist @Techno_Fog,

    “Defund the police” is quite the rallying cry. It’s a policy statement in five syllables. The language is clear and meaning is impossible to miss. The next steps after defunding the police, however, do require explanation. To whom does a community turn for its security needs when a police force is defunded and therefore eliminated?

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    Once you understand that there is no good answer to this question, then you get why the media has designated itself as the spokesperson of the movement. It becomes clear why the media has so graciously explained to us, the dumb public, why defunding the police does not mean defunding the police. Take this explanation published in the Washington Post:

    “Defunding the police means shrinking the scope of police responsibilities and shifting most of what government does to keep us safe to entities that are better equipped to meet that need. It means investing more in mental-health care and housing, and expanding the use of community mediation and violence interruption programs.”

    Of course, the movement disagrees. The New York Times is running op-eds with the title “Yes, We Mean Literally Abolish the Police” by an author whose stated goal is “to abolish prisons and police.”

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    Or, look to the public humiliation of Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey. Standing before a crowd of hundreds and beneath an angry woman on the microphone, Frey was straight-up asked, “Will you defund the Minneapolis police department?

    Frey answered, “I do not support the full abolition of the police.

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    And with that response he was summarily dismissed with the speaker’s cry of “Get the fuck out of here.” He exited through the crowd a defeated man as his constituents – and in all likelihood, his former supporters – flipped him off and cussed him out.

    Remarkably, Frey’s inquisition did not include questions about his position on “shifting the scope of police responsibilities” or public funding of community social programs. Frey wasn’t asked these questions because that wasn’t the mob’s demand. There was no potential for nuance and no potential for disagreement. Cutting police funding by 50% would not have been enough. They wanted it all gone.

    Meanwhile in Seattle, the city has lost city hall. Protesters have essentially taken over territory in the city and established the Capital Hill Autonomous Zone. There are stories that businesses and people passing through the area are being shaken down for cash. Per media reports, the protesters refuse to leave until their demands are met – including the demand that the Seattle police department be disbanded.

    During the riots that tore apart communities across America, the media excused the mob’s behavior because they agreed with the mob’s anger. Now the media misrepresents the mob’s demands because the media agrees, to an extent, with the mob’s politics.

    In principal, this is no different than what Orwell described in his criticism of political writing:

    “[P]olitical language has to consist largely of euphemism, question-begging and sheer cloudy vagueness… People are imprisoned for years without trial, or shot in the back of the neck or sent to die of scurvy in Arctic lumber camps: this is called elimination of unreliable elements.”

    Similarly, defunding the police becomes shifting police responsibilities. Riots become an uprising. AP guidance replaces looters with protesters who stole whatever was on the shelves.

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    The departure from objectivity (or at least the appearance of objectivity) is no longer just being defended on moral grounds. It is now claimed to be an existential necessity. The existential movements – global warming, Black Lives Matter, systemic racism – are now claimed to be objective truths, and so all reporting and all opinions on those topics must express one point of view. Objectivity has become that which advances the just social cause.

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    This puts into perspective the York Times writers’ revolt against the New York Times’ publication of Tom Cotton’s op-ed, which discussed President Trump’s option of deploying the troops to stop rioters from taking “innocent lives” and destroying “the livelihoods of law-abiding citizens.” Cotton’s measured argument was deemed to put black lives in danger. Again, it’s an existential issue.

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    It isn’t difficult to see against what – or whom – this media movement turns next. If climate change poses a fundamental threat to the earth, then dissention against the prevailing climate views must be stopped. If our institutions are systemically racist, then they’ll use all available options to defeat the instruments of oppression. And if you dare stray from the new “consensus”? Good luck.

  • Goldman's Clients Are Getting Angry That Teenage Daytraders Are Crushing Them
    Goldman’s Clients Are Getting Angry That Teenage Daytraders Are Crushing Them

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 19:25

    Two weeks ago, shortly after we first observed that the primary source of capital used by the Robinhood army of daytrading retail investors has been government stimulus, unemployment and benefit checks

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    … we reported that something unprecedented has happened: a basket of Goldman “retail favorite” stocks had outperformed not only the broader S&P500, but also Goldman’s basket of most popular hedge fund stocks.

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    Indeed, as Goldman highlighted at the end of May, as a result of free government money, zero cost online trades and millions of bored “unemployed from home” Gen-Zers, there has been nearly a tripling in retail user activity this year, with the number of distinct user-positions in S&P 500  stocks rising from 4 million at the start of 2020 to 5 million at the market peak in February, 7 million at the S&P 500 trough in March, and 12 million as of the end of May (since then this number has exploded even higher). This sharp increase in retail trading amid still muted hedge fund bullishness in a very illiquid market, helped a basket of popular retail stocks (which for those who have access can track it using Goldman’s Marquee platform under the GSXURFAV ticker) outperform the S&P 500 by 13 percentage points YTD.

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    Or maybe unprecedented is too strong a word: after the last time retail outperformed hedge funds was in late February – just two days after the S&P hit an all time high – when we posted the exact same observation, and concluded by saying that “while it is certainly a novelty to see retail investors outperform hedge funds, we doubt this divergence will last long.”

    It did not, and the market crashed just days later.

    However, what has happened since is truly unprecedented because if retail had merely smacked “smart money” returns at the end of February, it has positively crucified both the smart money – and all the money in the face of the S&P500 as of right now, when the basket of most popular retail stocks is up 20% YTD compared to the S&P which after Thursday’s rout ended down 5% for the year…

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    … and the Hedge Fund VIP basket which is roughly unchanged YTD. Even on a hedged basis (retail favorites/S&P500 vs hedge fund VIPs/largest short pair trades), the retail army is up almost 30% despite last week’s rout, massively outperforming virtually everyone else, and as the Goldman chart below shows, since the start of 2019, retail is outperforming hedge funds roughly 3 to 1.

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    To be sure, retail outperformance was somewhat hobbled after last Thursday’s rout but not nearly enough to catch down to the broad market, which experienced its sharpest decline since bottoming on March 23, which shockingly took place one day after arguably the most dovish Fed statement ever, one in which the central bank announced its intention to keep the funds rate at 0-25 bp through 2022, while formalizing open-ended QE. (that said, the S&P is still 36% above its March low largely thanks to the trillions in Fed stimulus).

    This disconnect between retail and hedge fund performance has not gone unnoticed by Goldman’s clients – who pay Goldman handsomely to outperform – or be told how to outperform – the market.

    As David Kostin writes in his latest Weekly Kickstart, unlike the past three months, when many of the bank’s client discussions centered on the disconnect between financial assets and the economy, as “most institutional investors have been stunned by the juxtaposition of the sharpest GDP contraction on record with a 36% market rally”, in recent weeks, (increasingly angry) investors have focused on a different type of disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street: The relative performance of institutional and retail investors.

    Since the March 23 low, our Hedge Fund VIP (GSTHHVIP) and Mutual Fund Overweight (GSTHMFOW) baskets have each returned 45%, outpacing the 36% S&P 500 rally by 900 bp. However, a basket of the most popular retail trading stocks (GSXURFAV) has returned an incredible 61%. As we highlighted in May, broker data reveal a tripling of retail trading activity as the market declined.

    Why are Goldman’s clients angry?

    Because instead of listening to Dave “Stool President” Portnoy, the self-proclaimed king of the Robinhood daytrading army, something they can do for free by just following his twitter account, they are instead paying Goldman a 2-3% commission for what? To underperform by as much as 1600 bps. And those that are not getting angry, they should be, because the conditions that have allowed Portnoy to take the other side of Warren Buffett’s airline trade but to also outperform all of the “smartest guys in the room”, are the same that are allowing bankrupt Hertz to issue up to $1 billion in worthless stock to Robinhooders: it’s the Fed’s green light to go crazy and just buy everything, which is the only obvious trade in a market in which the Fed has made failure impossible – something we have been pounding the table on ever since 2013 when we said that the best performing strategy is to go long the most shorted names, a trade that has generated tens of thousands of bps in alpha  as BofA “discovered” last year (but sure, call us bears).

    So in an attempt to win back some goodwill from its clients, Goldman’s Kostin lays out several observations on whether it no longer makes sense to pay for a professional financial advisor (such as Goldman), when the Fed has assured that this is a market where 10-year-olds (i.e., the e-trade baby all grown up) can make money hand over fist:

    The surge in retail trading activity has amplified the market rotation toward cyclicals and value stocks. High quality growth stocks outperformed during the market drawdown and continued to lead in the first weeks of the rebound, narrowing market breadth and contrasting with past bear market recoveries. Between March 23 and the middle of May, our long/short Growth factor returned 9% and our Momentum factor rose by 2%. This dynamic benefited institutional investors, who had shifted toward growth stocks as the market declined. Since mid-May, however, our Momentum factor has declined by 19% as improving virus and activity data pushed investors toward cyclicals, small-caps, and other economically-sensitive, low- multiple stocks. Stocks with these qualities which were quickly embraced by value-seeking retail investors, and now make up a large portion of our retail basket.

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    Despite the recent Value rally, the dispersion of stock multiples is still extremely wide relative to history. Last month, the gap in valuations between the highest and lowest valuation stocks registered the widest on record outside of the Tech Bubble peak. During the last few weeks that spread has narrowed, but it still ranks in the 93rd percentile since 1980.  Wide valuation dispersion signals long-term opportunity for value investors. However, the volatile rotations in recent weeks underscore just how difficult timing that opportunity can be. We believe most investors should include some value exposure in their portfolios, although the degree will depend on time horizon and risk tolerance, among other factors. In the medium-term, the challenge is determining which laggards are value opportunities and which leaders will experience fundamental growth that justifies current elevated valuations.

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    Yes David, we know the challenge, the problem for you – as you try to earn your pay and provide the solution – is that as the market continues to trade increasingly insane based on the whims of 10-year-olds, not even the most spot on accurate analysis based on fundamentals will matter one bit when the marginal price setters are traders who are still not legal to drink and maybe drive.

    Which is why the Goldman strategist cops out and takes the easy way out: just keep buying what has worked for the past decade, namely tech, resulting in even narrower market breadth even though it was Kostin himself two months ago warning that “narrow market breadth is always resolved the same way: narrow rallies lead to large drawdowns as the handful of market leaders ultimately fail to generate enough fundamental earnings strength to justify elevated valuations and investor crowding. In these cases, the market leaders “catch down” to weaker peers.” Maybe amid the shock of his clients, Kostin is hoping they don’t recall what he said less than two months ago:

    The unrivaled market leader this year has been Tech, and we expect it will continue to outperform [ZH: really? that;s not what you said on April 27]. The Information Technology sector has returned +7% YTD, and even following this week’s decline the NASDAQ 100 trades within 1% of its pre-crisis peak. As the market was falling, the sector was supported by its quality attributes, including strong balance sheets and high profit margins, as well as the resilience of its earnings. This year analysts have revised down Tech 2021 EPS by just 5%, compared with a 20% cut for the remainder of the S&P 500. In addition, low interest rates increase the value of the sector’s long-term growth prospects that, in cases like ecommerce and cloud usage, have been accelerated by the impact of the pandemic on consumer and business activity. Major risks to the sector include its popularity, which could cause underperformance in the event of a sharp investor derisking, as well as the possibilities of government regulation and tax reform. While Health Care EPS estimates have been similarly resilient, political risk has suppressed the sector’s multiples, as is often the case prior to presidential elections.

    And so on. Meanwhile as Kostin, and his very generous clients contemplate the tea leaves and analyze such meaningless “data” as cash flows, growth projections, technical reversal patterns and what not, the rabid army of millennial daytraders rushes from one stock to the next, sending it soaring then plunging with no regard for underlying data, in one truly unprecedented pump and dump scheme, where all those who jump in first make a killing, while the laggards are crushed.

    As we noted recently, until Powell does something to stop this catastrophic mockery of efficient markets, which are now juiced to the gills with the Fed’s trillions in newly printed money, nothing will change. And judging by what Powell just said last week, nothing will change for a long, long time:

    “The Fed doesn’t believe, and shouldn’t believe, that it can forecast the stock market, and therefore recognize a bubble in real time,” said Princeton University economist Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chairman, in a Bloomberg Television interview. “They’re pretty easy to recognize after the fact, after they burst. But, in real time, in a predictive way, pretty much impossible.”

    Really? Impossible? How about one look at the chart of bankrupt Hertz…

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    … whose market cap almost hit $1 billion last week and prompted the company to do the unthinkable: try to sell stock to the hordes of Robinhood daytraders, whose tiny trades are being frontrun all day long by HFT algos which are accentuating the momentum and allowing a handful of small investors to have an outsized impact on the market (below is Robinhood’s latest 606 Report: 65.5% of all orders are sold to Citadel).

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    Or how about Chesapeake? Or maybe Fangdd, you worthless career economist.

    Meanwhile, retail investors – confident they can never lose – and certainly their returns to date justify it, are betting more and more aggressively on the market, in the form of the ever more levered upside bets such as tiny, short duration calls. According to SentimentTrader, one-contract transactions have surged to 13% from roughly 9%. The smallest of traders bought more than 14 million speculative call options in the week ended June 5, an all time high.

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    “We have Instagram influencers and now we have Reddit influencers,” QVR’s Benn Eifert told Bloomberg. “They post a trade idea in an option, in a single name, and within an hour you see hundreds of thousands of call options placed, which is totally insane.”

    Insane? Yes, but it’s working, and who can blame them: the Fed chairman himself said he will do nothing to pop the bubble (which he can’t see) with tens of millions of Americans out of work. That means that, all else equal, when it comes to market insanity you ain’t seen nothing yet. Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research LLC, agrees, and says that it all comes down to the Fed’s only mandate: never again allow a drop in stocks.

    “That’s why we’re seeing a giant rush of small retail investors and everybody else into the market,” Bianco told Bloomberg Television Wednesday. “When you go into the market, you go to the riskiest end of the market, so you buy bankrupt companies, you buy beaten down airlines, you buy cruise ships, you buy retailers because they will benefit the most from a support system where everything is targeted, and the markets will always go up.”

    And as they do, and as “retail investors” retire at the old age of 11, Goldman’s clients will get angrier by the day until one day, who knows, we may just see riots in the streets with chants of “millionaires’ lives matter.

  • Already-Broke Colleges Being Bullied Into Hosting Costly "White Privilege" Workshops Amid Virus Crisis
    Already-Broke Colleges Being Bullied Into Hosting Costly “White Privilege” Workshops Amid Virus Crisis

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 19:00

    Institutions of higher learning across the nation are facing the biggest crisis of their existence after losing their whole spring and summer semesters to the coronavirus crisis and lockdowns, and now still with lingering questions over whether campuses will even open in the fall.

    Colleges are stuck in financial limbo and survival at a moment that key staffing, faculty contracts, student recruiting, tuition and donor revenue-related decisions are in many cases still up in the air for next year, also as controversy erupts over refusal to refund student housing and campus activity fees. And now there’s a wave of class-action lawsuits, which includes at least 125 private and public universities named as defendants in some 175 pending lawsuits across the nation, led by angry students and their families seeking refunds amid campus closures and mandated sub-par online courses. 

    But facing the very question of whether schools will even be able to keep their doors open, guess what the newest urgent driving concern is? 

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    Mandated diversity training among all faculty, staff, and students — including workshops on ‘White privilege’ wherein people are told they are racist by the mere fact of their existence is apparently tops the agenda.

    That’s right, at a moment mounting debt woes brought on by campus closures is threatening the very existence of the 600 billion dollar higher education industry, schools are spending “extra” in order to bring ‘woke’ diversity specialists and workshops to their campuses for the upcoming semesters.

    As a case in point, a professor from a college in the southern Appalachian mountain region penned the following in response to the trend, as related by The American Conservative’s Rod Dreher:

    One proposal, made without irony, was to invite the community to campus to tell them how their whiteness makes them privileged and also racist. Mercifully, sanity reigned and the proposal foundered on the rocks of “we don’t think poor white people from Appalachia will be persuaded, and will likely resent being told their lives are somehow privileged.” But it won’t stop.

    The professor relates how the community of faculty and students at a school in one of the historically most impoverished regions of the country was going to be made to attend a workshop informing them of how “privileged” they all are.

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    An event last year at the University of Kentucky, social media image/Twitter.re

    Reproduced below is the illuminating and alarming letter, revealing the lengths colleges are willing to go to satisfy the PC mob at a moment their very financial survival is at stake.

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    “I received this poignant letter from a reader, who signed it with their real name, and institutional affiliation,” introduced columnist Rod Dreher.

    The hour is later than you think.

    I teach at a small liberal arts college in the southern Appalachian mountains. We serve primarily poor black, white, and brown kids. 65% of them are first generation college students (like me) and hail from some of the worst poverty anywhere in the country. We are enrollment driven, funding is always an issue, but I think we make a difference.

    Instead of figuring out how we are going to deal with a second wave of coronavirus, or how to replace international students who shore up enrollment while getting to play sports they love (and enriching a fairly cornbread corner of America) and may not come back after the pandemic, or the myriad other problems big and small that plague us, we are putting together a “social justice initiative” whose purpose as yet remains vague.

    A general call went out to everyone. If you join, you’ll be expected to trumpet a hard-Left reading of woke ideology. If you refuse… well “silence is violence.” One proposal, made without irony, was to invite the community to campus to tell them how their whiteness makes them privileged and also racist. Mercifully, sanity reigned and the proposal foundered on the rocks of “we don’t think poor white people from Appalachia will be persuaded, and will likely resent being told their lives are somehow privileged.” But it won’t stop.

    If you just want to teach, scratch out a living and make a difference, hoping the furies will forget about you: you are wrong. I took this job on purpose, praying to bring something of the liberal arts to my own people. And just be left alone, and yet… here we are.

    Feel free to share my story, if you like, but please do keep my name off the web. I still have to figure out how to stay true to my beliefs and pay my mortgage.

    It seems that a day has indeed come when the courage of men failed, and we have forsaken our friends and broke all bonds of fellowship. You know what comes next? “An hour of wolves and shattered shields…” It is here.

    Already many families are opting out of sending their recent high school graduates off to college as a potential second wave COVID-19 crisis looms. Many students are no doubt thinking it’s a good time for a ‘gap year’

    This is a trend likely to only grow, especially given the degree to which universities stop actually educating in Literature, History, Science, Business, Math, and the Classics – and instead focus on dubious and highly elastic concepts like “privilege” and “systemic racism”. 

  • Another Progressive Media Figure 'Canceled' For Being 'Insufficiently Woke'
    Another Progressive Media Figure ‘Canceled’ For Being ‘Insufficiently Woke’

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 19:00

    As the protests have quieted down and America waits for Minnesota AG Keith Ellison to prosecute Derek Chauvin and the 3 other officers who presided over the murder of George Floyd, the aftermath on the Internet has been surprising and swift, as many popular figures who have pledged their support to ‘BLM’ and the principles of dismantling white supremacy via posting and vague workplace ‘diversity’ commitments are being called out by other for being “insufficiently woke”.

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    Though most Americans who either aren’t on twitter or don’t spend the majority of their free time there probably don’t know/don’t care about any of this, the movement has claimed victims in the latest iteration of ‘cancel culture’ run amok.

    Buzzfeed News reports that Leandra Cohen, the founder and top editor at fashion website Man Repeller, has decided to “take a step back” after acknowledging that she “failed” in her mission to expand the diversity of Man Repeller.

    What, exactly, triggered the backlash? Well, during the outset of the crisis, Man Repeller furloughed a popular black editor on its site (among other employees) as the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak rippled across the media industry.

    That employee has now joined a mob of others on twitter hurling accusations that Man Reppeller’s content only appeals to “white cis women”.

    Is that accurate? We don’t think so. A cursory review of the site’s content finds many articles by minority writers, and the site seemingly never stops reiterating its commitment to the ideals of ‘woke’ culture.

    But maybe that’s the problem. It’s an example of the ultimate paradox of wokeness: You’re ‘racist’ if you don’t agree 100% with the ideology, but once you bend the knee, you become a target in a movement fueled by deliberately ignoring anything that challenges its chosen narrative.

    Leandra Cohen of popular fashion blog Man Repeller has announced plans to step back from the platform following widespread criticisms of the publication’s response to current Black Lives Matter protests, ignited by the death of George Floyd.

    The founder shared on Instagram that she would stay “on the sidelines” in order to give her team the opportunity to show readers “what Man Repeller can be.”

    The decision follows numerous attempts by the blog to weigh in on the current conversations around racism, social justice, and inclusivity.

    In an initial post addressing the Man Repeller community, Cohen made clear that the platform would “not remain silent in the face of police brutality and white supremacy.”

    One thing we don’t understand: If “trans women are women, period”, then wouldn’t Man Repeller be doing readers a disservice by carving out content specifically directed at the trans women? Then again, a quick google search reveals dozens of articles written by and written about trans people and their experiences on Man Repeller.

    But however many articles Man Repeller writes as it strives to appease the woke leftist mob, we doubt it will be enough. Cohen is guilty of the same original sin as most of her staff: Being a white woman.

  • US Signs Commitment For Mass Troop Exit From Iraq, Vows "No Permanent Bases"
    US Signs Commitment For Mass Troop Exit From Iraq, Vows “No Permanent Bases”

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 18:30

    Via AlMasdarNews.com,

    The United States confirmed on Friday that it will discuss with the Iraqi government the status of its remaining military forces, stressing that it does not seek military bases or a permanent military presence in Iraq.

    According to a joint statement of the first session of the strategic dialogue, Washington and Baghdad announced the continuation of the talks on the status of the remaining American forces in Iraq, where the two countries’ focus is towards developing a normal security relationship based on common interests. The governments of the two countries said in the statement that “in light of the significant progress made towards eliminating the threat from ISIS, the United States will continue in the coming months to reduce its forces in Iraq.”

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    Official handover of Qayyarah Airfield West from U.S.-led coalition forces to Iraqi forces in Mosul in late March, via Reuters.

    The United States also confirmed that it is not seeking to establish permanent bases or a permanent military presence in Iraq, as agreed previously in the 2008 Strategic Framework Agreement, which states that security cooperation is based on mutual agreements.

    The U.S. pointed out that they had already withdrawn half of their forces from Iraq since the start of the new year.

    Reuters reports Friday:

    Western military trainers are expected to remain in Iraq, but it is not clear how many. The United States has had around 5,000 troops stationed in the country, and coalition allies another 2,500.

    An earlier newsflash by Iraq’s state news agency cited Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi as saying there would be a total withdrawal of troops. The article was later removed.

    For its part, the government of Iraq is committed to protecting the military forces of the International Alliance, and the Iraqi facilities that host them in line with international law and relevant arrangements regarding the presence of those forces and in the form that will be agreed upon between the two countries.

    It is noteworthy to mention that the Iraqi Council of Representatives had voted in January in an extraordinary session in the presence of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, on a decision obliging the government to work to end the request for assistance submitted to the international coalition led by Washington and end any presence of foreign forces on Iraqi soil.

    This came against the background of the killing of the Iranian commander of the Quds Force, Major General Qassem Soleimani, and the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Units, Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, during a U.S. air raid near the Baghdad International Airport.

  • Chicago Fed Economist Fired For Criticizing "Defund The Police"
    Chicago Fed Economist Fired For Criticizing “Defund The Police”

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 17:40

    Submitted by Mark Glennon of Wirepoints

    If you are among the two-thirds of Americans opposing calls by Black Lives Matter to defund the police, think twice about saying so in public.

    The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is the latest example of what you might face. On Friday it cut ties with a prominent University of Chicago economics professor, Harald Uhlig, who was a scholar at the bank, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The Chicago Fed said it terminated Mr. Uhlig’s contract effective that day.

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    What was Uhlig’s sin?

    A series of tweets criticizing Black Lives Matter’s call to defund police departments.

    BLM had “just torpedoed itself, with its full-fledged support of #defundthepolice,” Uhlig tweeted.

    “Time for sensible adults to enter back into the room and have serious, earnest, respectful conversations about it all… We need more police, we need to pay them more, we need to train them better,” he wrote.

    The full text of the tweets is linked here.

    If you think those comments seem harmless, you are not alone. Beyond the two-thirds of Americans who tell pollsters they oppose calls for defunding, you have to wonder how many more are afraid to answer polls honestly.

    Uhlig also knocked those who tried to redefine what defunding means by claiming “it just means funding schools (who isn’t in favor of that?!?).” He was absolutely right to do that. We wrote just this week why calls to defund mean just that, which was affirmed by a New York Times column Friday headlined, “Yes, We Mean Literally Abolish the Police.”

    The Chicago Fed wasn’t the first to go after Uhlig for his tweets. Earlier reactions were covered by both the Wall Street Journal and Business Insider, reactions the National Review described as a mob attack on academic freedom.

    Over the past few years we learned to expect, even to shrug off, charges of racism or insensitivity over even the most sensible or innocuous comments.

    What’s new just in the past month, however, is far more frightening.

    It’s the surrender by so many companies and institutions to intimidation by the most radical voices, such as those who would defund the police. Contributions to Black Lives Matter are pouring in from corporate America and dissenting voices are being muzzled and punished. The Federal Reserve Bank properly guards its independence, and its local banks pride themselves on independence even from one another. But for the Chicago Fed, that independence apparently ends when the mob shows up.

    These are terrifying times for reasons far beyond law and order. This is about freedom of expression and America itself.

  • Syria & Russia Thwart US Oil Blockade With Massive Fuel Convoy To Northeast Syria
    Syria & Russia Thwart US Oil Blockade With Massive Fuel Convoy To Northeast Syria

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 17:15

    To the consternation of the West, Iran and Russia have increasingly turned from assisting Assad’s military effort to aiding Syria as it struggles to survive sanctions and a collapsing economy. 

    At a moment US special forces still occupy the bulk of oil and gas fields in northeast Syria, also in support of the Kurdish-led SDF, Damascus has ramped up efforts at busting past US lines with Russia’s help. It should be underscored that this is all happening within UN-recognized Syrian sovereign territory.  

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    “On Saturday, more than two thousand oil tanks coming from the Syrian coast, arrived in Al-Qamishli to help the citizens in northeastern Syria,” Beirut-based war monitor al-Masdar News reports.

    Iranian oil has been supplying the country via the second largest port city of Tartous, after last year a national fuel shortage resulted in sometimes miles-long lines at gas stations, amid the broader economic crisis, which is currently witnessing runaway inflation. 

    RT Arabic published footage of a large oil convoy as it traveled along the M-4 Highway to make deliveries from a coastal refinery to al-Qamishli, very near US-occupied territory where American and Russian troops have squared off lately.

    RT Arabic reported drivers in the convoy as saying: “the U.S. Caesar sanctions have not been imposed on the oil and gas sector yet,” according to a translation. 

    Another added that “the results will be disastrous for the Syrian people if these sanctions are applied to the energy sector.”

    Over the past months there’s been multiple incidents at checkpoints in northeast Syria involving US and Russian/Syrian convoys in direct stand-offs.

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    The Caesar sanctions are expected to go into effect later this month, tightening the noose further on Syria’s already war-ravaged and sanctioned population, made worse by the ongoing economic crisis in neighboring Lebanon.

  • Taibbi: The American Press Is Destroying Itself
    Taibbi: The American Press Is Destroying Itself

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 06/13/2020 – 16:50

    Authored by Matt Taibbi,

    Sometimes it seems life can’t get any worse in this country. Already in terror of a pandemic, Americans have lately been bombarded with images of grotesque state-sponsored violence, from the murder of George Floyd to countless scenes of police clubbing and brutalizing protesters.

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    Our president, Donald Trump, is a clown who makes a great reality-show villain but is uniquely toolless as the leader of a superpower nation. Watching him try to think through two society-imperiling crises is like waiting for a gerbil to solve Fermat’s theorem. Calls to “dominate” marchers and ad-libbed speculations about Floyd’s “great day” looking down from heaven at Trump’s crisis management and new unemployment numbers (“only” 21 million out of work!) were pure gasoline at a tinderbox moment. The man seems determined to talk us into civil war.

    But police violence, and Trump’s daily assaults on the presidential competence standard, are only part of the disaster. On the other side of the political aisle, among self-described liberals, we’re watching an intellectual revolution. It feels liberating to say after years of tiptoeing around the fact, but the American left has lost its mind. It’s become a cowardly mob of upper-class social media addicts, Twitter Robespierres who move from discipline to discipline torching reputations and jobs with breathtaking casualness.

    The leaders of this new movement are replacing traditional liberal beliefs about tolerance, free inquiry, and even racial harmony with ideas so toxic and unattractive that they eschew debate, moving straight to shaming, threats, and intimidation. They are counting on the guilt-ridden, self-flagellating nature of traditional American progressives, who will not stand up for themselves, and will walk to the Razor voluntarily.

    They’ve conned organization after organization into empowering panels to search out thoughtcrime, and it’s established now that anything can be an offense, from a UCLA professor placed under investigation for reading Martin Luther King’s “Letter from a Birmingham Jail” out loud to a data scientist fired* from a research firm for — get this — retweeting an academic study suggesting nonviolent protests may be more politically effective than violent ones!

    Now, this madness is coming for journalism. Beginning on Friday, June 5th, a series of controversies rocked the media. By my count, at least eight news organizations dealt with internal uprisings (it was likely more). Most involved groups of reporters and staffers demanding the firing or reprimand of colleagues who’d made politically “problematic” editorial or social media decisions.

    The New York Times, the InterceptVox, the Philadelphia Inquirer, Variety, and others saw challenges to management.

    Probably the most disturbing story involved Intercept writer Lee Fang, one of a fast-shrinking number of young reporters actually skilled in investigative journalism. Fang’s work in the area of campaign finance especially has led to concrete impact, including a record fine to a conservative Super PAC: few young reporters have done more to combat corruption.

    Yet Fang found himself denounced online as a racist, then hauled before H.R. His crime? During protests, he tweeted this interview with an African-American man named Maximum Fr, who described having two cousins murdered in the East Oakland neighborhood where he grew up. Saying his aunt is still not over those killings, Max asked:

    I always question, why does a Black life matter only when a white man takes it?… Like, if a white man takes my life tonight, it’s going to be national news, but if a Black man takes my life, it might not even be spoken of… It’s stuff just like that that I just want in the mix.

    Shortly after, a co-worker of Fang’s, Akela Lacy, wrote, “Tired of being made to deal continually with my co-worker @lhfang continuing to push black on black crime narratives after being repeatedly asked not to. This isn’t about me and him, it’s about institutional racism and using free speech to couch anti-blackness. I am so fucking tired.” She followed with, “Stop being racist Lee.”

    The tweet received tens of thousands of likes and responses along the lines of, “Lee Fang has been like this for years, but the current moment only makes his anti-Blackness more glaring,” and “Lee Fang spouting racist bullshit it must be a day ending in day.” A significant number of Fang’s co-workers, nearly all white, as well as reporters from other major news organizations like the New York Times and MSNBC and political activists (one former Elizabeth Warren staffer tweeted, “Get him!”), issued likes and messages of support for the notion that Fang was a racist. Though he had support within the organization, no one among his co-workers was willing to say anything in his defense publicly.

    Like many reporters, Fang has always viewed it as part of his job to ask questions in all directions. He’s written critically of political figures on the center-left, the left, and “obviously on the right,” and his reporting has inspired serious threats in the past. None of those past experiences were as terrifying as this blitz by would-be colleagues, which he described as “jarring,” “deeply isolating,” and “unique in my professional experience.”

    To save his career, Fang had to craft a public apology for “insensitivity to the lived experience of others.” According to one friend of his, it’s been communicated to Fang that his continued employment at The Intercept is contingent upon avoiding comments that may upset colleagues. Lacy to her credit publicly thanked Fang for his statement and expressed willingness to have a conversation; unfortunately, the throng of Intercept co-workers who piled on her initial accusation did not join her in this.

    I first met Lee Fang in 2014 and have never known him to be anything but kind, gracious, and easygoing. He also appears earnestly committed to making the world a better place through his work. It’s stunning that so many colleagues are comfortable using a word as extreme and villainous as racist to describe him.

    Though he describes his upbringing as “solidly middle-class,” Fang grew up in up in a diverse community in Prince George’s County, Maryland, and attended public schools where he was frequently among the few non-African Americans in his class. As a teenager, he was witness to the murder of a young man outside his home by police who were never prosecuted, and also volunteered at a shelter for trafficked women, two of whom were murdered. If there’s an edge to Fang at all, it seems geared toward people in our business who grew up in affluent circumstances and might intellectualize topics that have personal meaning for him.

    In the tweets that got him in trouble with Lacy and other co-workers, he questioned the logic of protesters attacking immigrant-owned businesses “with no connection to police brutality at all.” He also offered his opinion on Martin Luther King’s attitude toward violent protest (Fang’s take was that King did not support it; Lacy responded, “you know they killed him too right”). These are issues around which there is still considerable disagreement among self-described liberals, even among self-described leftists. Fang also commented, presciently as it turns out, that many reporters were “terrified of openly challenging the lefty conventional wisdom around riots.”

    Lacy says she never intended for Fang to be “fired, ‘canceled,’ or deplatformed,” but appeared irritated by questions on the subject, which she says suggest, “there is more concern about naming racism than letting it persist.”

    Max himself was stunned to find out that his comments on all this had created a Twitter firestorm. “I couldn’t believe they were coming for the man’s job over something I said,” he recounts. “It was not Lee’s opinion. It was my opinion.”

    By phone, Max spoke of a responsibility he feels Black people have to speak out against all forms of violence, “precisely because we experience it the most.” He described being affected by the Floyd story, but also by the story of retired African-American police captain David Dorn, shot to death in recent protests in St. Louis. He also mentioned Tony Timpa, a white man whose 2016 asphyxiation by police was only uncovered last year. In body-camera footage, police are heard joking after Timpa passed out and stopped moving, “I don’t want to go to school! Five more minutes, Mom!”

    “If it happens to anyone, it has to be called out,” Max says.

    Max described discussions in which it was argued to him that bringing up these other incidents now is not helpful to the causes being articulated at the protests. He understands that point of view. He just disagrees.

    “They say, there has to be the right time and a place to talk about that,” he says. “But my point is, when? I want to speak out now.” He pauses. “We’ve taken the narrative, and instead of being inclusive with it, we’ve become exclusive with it. Why?”

    There were other incidents.

    The editors of Bon Apetit and Refinery29 both resigned amid accusations of toxic workplace culture. The editor of Variety, Claudia Eller, was placed on leave after calling a South Asian freelance writer “bitter” in a Twitter exchange about minority hiring at her company. The self-abasing apology (“I have tried to diversify our newsroom over the past seven years, but I HAVE NOT DONE ENOUGH”) was insufficient. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Inquirer’s editor, Stan Wischowski, was forced out after approving a headline, “Buildings matter, too.”

    In the most discussed incident, Times editorial page editor James Bennet was ousted for green-lighting an anti-protest editorial by Arkansas Republican Senator Tom Cotton entitled, “Send in the troops.”

    I’m no fan of Cotton, but as was the case with Michael Moore’s documentary and many other controversial speech episodes, it’s not clear that many of the people angriest about the piece in question even read it. In classic Times fashion, the paper has already scrubbed a mistake they made misreporting what their own editorial said, in an article about Bennet’s ouster. Here’s how the piece by Marc Tracy read originally (emphasis mine):

    James Bennet, the editorial page editor of The New York Times, has resigned after a controversy over an Op-Ed by a senator calling for military force against protesters in American cities.

    Here’s how the piece reads now:

    James Bennet resigned on Sunday from his job as the editorial page editor of The New York Times, days after the newspaper’s opinion section, which he oversaw, published a much-criticized Op-Ed by a United States senator calling for a military response to civic unrest in American cities.

    Cotton did not call for “military force against protesters in American cities.” He spoke of a “show of force,” to rectify a situation a significant portion of the country saw as spiraling out of control. It’s an important distinction. Cotton was presenting one side of the most important question on the most important issue of a critically important day in American history.

    As Cotton points out in the piece, he was advancing a view arguably held by a majority of the country.Morning Consult poll showed 58% of Americans either strongly or somewhat supported the idea of “calling in the U.S. military to supplement city police forces.” That survey included 40% of self-described “liberals” and 37% of African-Americans. To declare a point of view held by that many people not only not worthy of discussion, but so toxic that publication of it without even necessarily agreeing requires dismissal, is a dramatic reversal for a newspaper that long cast itself as the national paper of record.

    Incidentally, that same poll cited by Cotton showed that 73% of Americans described protecting property as “very important,” while an additional 16% considered it “somewhat important.” This means the Philadelphia Inquirer editor was fired for running a headline – “Buildings matter, too” – that the poll said expressed a view held by 89% of the population, including 64% of African-Americans.

    (Would I have run the Inquirer headline? No. In the context of the moment, the use of the word “matter” especially sounds like the paper is equating “Black lives” and “buildings,” an odious and indefensible comparison. But why not just make this case in a rebuttal editorial? Make it a teaching moment? How can any editor operate knowing that airing opinions shared by a majority of readers might cost his or her job?)

    The main thing accomplished by removing those types of editorials from newspapers — apart from scaring the hell out of editors — is to shield readers from knowledge of what a major segment of American society is thinking.

    It also guarantees that opinion writers and editors alike will shape views to avoid upsetting colleagues, which means that instead of hearing what our differences are and how we might address those issues, newspaper readers will instead be presented with page after page of people professing to agree with one another. That’s not agitation, that’s misinformation.

    The instinct to shield audiences from views or facts deemed politically uncomfortable has been in evidence since Trump became a national phenomenon. We saw it when reporters told audiences Hillary Clinton’s small crowds were a “wholly intentional” campaign decision. I listened to colleagues that summer of 2016 talk about ignoring poll results, or anecdotes about Hillary’s troubled campaign, on the grounds that doing otherwise might “help Trump” (or, worse, be perceived that way).

    Even if you embrace a wholly politically utilitarian vision of the news media – I don’t, but let’s say – non-reporting of that “enthusiasm” story, or ignoring adverse poll results, didn’t help Hillary’s campaign. I’d argue it more likely accomplished the opposite, contributing to voter apathy by conveying the false impression that her victory was secure.

    After the 2016 election, we began to see staff uprisings. In one case, publishers at the Nation faced a revolt – from the Editor on down – after articles by Aaron Mate and Patrick Lawrence questioning the evidentiary basis for Russiagate claims was run. Subsequent events, including the recent declassification of congressional testimony, revealed that Mate especially was right to point out that officials had no evidence for a Trump-Russia collusion case. It’s precisely because such unpopular views often turn out to be valid that we stress publishing and debating them in the press.

    In a related incident, the New Yorker ran an article about Glenn Greenwald’s Russiagate skepticism that quoted that same Nation editor, Joan Walsh, who had edited Greenwald at Salon. She suggested to the New Yorker that Greenwald’s reservations were rooted in “disdain” for the Democratic Party, in part because of its closeness to Wall Street, but also because of the “ascendance of women and people of color.” The message was clear: even if you win a Pulitzer Prize, you can be accused of racism for deviating from approved narratives, even on questions that have nothing to do with race (the New Yorker piece also implied Greenwald’s intransigence on Russia was pathological and grounded in trauma from childhood).

    In the case of Cotton, Times staffers protested on the grounds that “Running this puts Black @NYTimes staff in danger.” Bennet’s editorial decision was not merely ill-considered, but literally life-threatening (note pundits in the space of a few weeks have told us that protesting during lockdowns and not protesting during lockdowns are both literally lethal). The Times first attempted to rectify the situation by apologizing, adding a long Editor’s note to Cotton’s piece that read, as so many recent “apologies” have, like a note written by a hostage.

    Editors begged forgiveness for not being more involved, for not thinking to urge Cotton to sound less like Cotton (“Editors should have offered suggestions”), and for allowing rhetoric that was “needlessly harsh and falls short of the thoughtful approach that advances useful debate.” That last line is sadly funny, in the context of an episode in which reporters were seeking to pre-empt a debate rather than have one at all; of course, no one got the joke, since a primary characteristic of the current political climate is a total absence of a sense of humor in any direction.

    As many guessed, the “apology” was not enough, and Bennet was whacked a day later in a terse announcement.

    His replacement, Kathleen Kingsbury, issued a staff directive essentially telling employees they now had a veto over anything that made them uncomfortable:

    “Anyone who sees any piece of Opinion journalism, headlines, social posts, photos—you name it—that gives you the slightest pause, please call or text me immediately.”

    All these episodes sent a signal to everyone in a business already shedding jobs at an extraordinary rate that failure to toe certain editorial lines can and will result in the loss of your job. Perhaps additionally, you could face a public shaming campaign in which you will be denounced as a racist and rendered unemployable.

    These tensions led to amazing contradictions in coverage. For all the extraordinary/inexplicable scenes of police viciousness in recent weeks — and there was a ton of it, ranging from police slashing tires in Minneapolis, to Buffalo officers knocking over an elderly man, to Philadelphia police attacking protesters — there were also 12 deaths in the first nine days of protests, only one at the hands of a police officer (involving a man who may or may not have been aiming a gun at police).

    Looting in some communities has been so bad that people have been left without banks to cash checks, or pharmacies to fill prescriptions; business owners have been wiped out (“My life is gone,” commented one Philly store owner); a car dealership in San Leandro, California saw 74 cars stolen in a single night. It isn’t the whole story, but it’s demonstrably true that violence, arson, and rioting are occurring.

    However, because it is politically untenable to discuss this in ways that do not suggest support, reporters have been twisting themselves into knots.

    We are seeing headlines previously imaginable only in The Onion, e.g., 27 police officers injured during largely peaceful anti-racism protests in London.”

    Even people who try to keep up with protest goals find themselves denounced the moment they fail to submit to some new tenet of ever-evolving doctrine, via a surprisingly consistent stream of retorts: fuck you, shut up, send money, do better, check yourself, I’m tired and racist.

    Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey, who argued for police reform and attempted to show solidarity with protesters in his city, was shouted down after he refused to commit to defunding the police. Protesters shouted “Get the fuck out!” at him, then chanted “Shame!” and threw refuse, Game of Thrones-style, as he skulked out of the gathering. Frey’s “shame” was refusing to endorse a position polls show 65% of Americans oppose, including 62% of Democrats, with just 15% of all people, and only 33% of African-Americans, in support.

    Each passing day sees more scenes that recall something closer to cult religion than politics. White protesters in Floyd’s Houston hometown kneeling and praying to black residents for “forgiveness… for years and years of racism” are one thing, but what are we to make of white police in Cary, North Carolina, kneeling and washing the feet of Black pastors? What about Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer kneeling while dressed in “African kente cloth scarves”?

    There is symbolism here that goes beyond frustration with police or even with racism: these are orgiastic, quasi-religious, and most of all, deeply weird scenes, and the press is too paralyzed to wonder at it. In a business where the first job requirement was once the willingness to ask tough questions, we’ve become afraid to ask obvious ones.

    On CNN, Minneapolis City Council President Lisa Bender was asked a hypothetical question about a future without police: “What if in the middle of the night, my home is broken into? Who do I call?” When Bender, who is white, answered, “I know that comes from a place of privilege,” questions popped to mind. Does privilege mean one should let someone break into one’s home, or that one shouldn’t ask that hypothetical question? (I was genuinely confused). In any other situation, a media person pounces on a provocative response to dig out its meaning, but an increasingly long list of words and topics are deemed too dangerous to discuss.

    The media in the last four years has devolved into a succession of moral manias. We are told the Most Important Thing Ever is happening for days or weeks at a time, until subjects are abruptly dropped and forgotten, but the tone of warlike emergency remains: from James Comey’s firing, to the deification of Robert Mueller, to the Brett Kavanaugh nomination, to the democracy-imperiling threat to intelligence “whistleblowers,” all those interminable months of Ukrainegate hearings (while Covid-19 advanced), to fury at the death wish of lockdown violators, to the sudden reversal on that same issue, etc.

    It’s been learned in these episodes we may freely misreport reality, so long as the political goal is righteous.

    It was okay to publish the now-discredited Steele dossier, because Trump is scum. MSNBC could put Michael Avenatti on live TV to air a gang rape allegation without vetting, because who cared about Brett Kavanaugh – except press airing of that wild story ended up being a crucial factor in convincing key swing voter Maine Senator Susan Collins the anti-Kavanaugh campaign was a political hit job (the allegation illustrated, “why the presumption of innocence is so important,” she said). Reporters who were anxious to prevent Kavanaugh’s appointment, in other words, ended up helping it happen through overzealousness.

    There were no press calls for self-audits after those episodes, just as there won’t be a few weeks from now if Covid-19 cases spike, or a few months from now if Donald Trump wins re-election successfully painting the Democrats as supporters of violent protest who want to abolish police. No: press activism is limited to denouncing and shaming colleagues for insufficient fealty to the cheap knockoff of bullying campus Marxism that passes for leftist thought these days.

    The traditional view of the press was never based on some contrived, mathematical notion of “balance,” i.e. five paragraphs of Republicans for every five paragraphs of Democrats. The ideal instead was that we showed you everything we could see, good and bad, ugly and not, trusting that a better-informed public would make better decisions. This vision of media stressed accuracy, truth, and trust in the reader’s judgment as the routes to positive social change.

    For all our infamous failings, journalists once had some toughness to them. We were supposed to be willing to go to jail for sources we might not even like, and fly off to war zones or disaster areas without question when editors asked. It was also once considered a virtue to flout the disapproval of colleagues to fight for stories we believed in (Watergate, for instance).

    Today no one with a salary will stand up for colleagues like Lee Fang. Our brave truth-tellers make great shows of shaking fists at our parody president, but not one of them will talk honestly about the fear running through their own newsrooms. People depend on us to tell them what we see, not what we think. What good are we if we’re afraid to do it?

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