Today’s News 3rd June 2020

  • Two Hour Lines In The UK At McDonald's As Drive-Thrus Reopen
    Two Hour Lines In The UK At McDonald’s As Drive-Thrus Reopen

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/03/2020 – 02:45

    McDonald’s has started to reopen 924 drive-through restaurants in the UK and Ireland. The process will take three days, but by the end of the week, about 64% of McDonald’s restaurants will be serving Big Macs to hungry customers.

    Each branch will have a slimmed-down menu and limited operating hours, between 11 am-10 pm until further notice. Reduced operating hours means there is no breakfast food. Dining areas of all restaurants will remain closed to the public. 

    Limited hours and no breakfast have likely caused a stir among some customers, who will also learn this week that a new spending cap of £25 ($31.30) will be applied on all drive-through orders. 

    Limited Menu

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    h/t MCD 

    The reopenings come after several months of closures following strict lockdown orders enforced by the government to flatten the pandemic curve. COVID-19 devastated the UK with 277,738 confirmed cases, and 39,127 deaths, and 25,062 confirmed cases and 1,650 deaths in Ireland, according to data collected by Johns Hopkins (June 2). 

    About 168 McDonald’s drive-thrus opened on Tuesday, along with two dozen locations opened for at-home delivery orders only.

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    The Daily Mail reports today’s opening was an absolute madhouse for many locations, which saw a flood of people who wanted to get their hands on Big Macs and McNuggets. Some people waited upwards of two hours to get their hands on a burger — with police managing traffic around several places as lines poured onto the streets.  

    After consulting with police, managers at McDonald’s in Newbridge, near Edinburgh, have decided to close the drive thru lane temporarily to traffic amid unprecedented demand today. – Daily Mail

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    h/t Daily Mail

    Two drive-thru lanes are packed with cars at Livingston’s McDonald’s, which reopened at 11 am with new social distancing measures in place. – Daily Mail

    Over 70 cars are queuing for up to two hours this afternoon to get a McDonalds Drive Thru on the Middlebrook Retail Park in Bolton, Gtr Manchester, with the line snaking around the car park. – Daily Mail

    Marshalls direct the queue of cars waiting to get their McDonald’s fix today in Astley Bridge, Bolton. – Daily Mail

    Drive-thru lanes were packed in Dunstable as McDonald’s reopened at 11 am on Tuesday, but customers can only order up to £25 worth of food at a time. – Daily Mail 

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    h/t Daily Mail

    Peace and calm were widely seen as McDonald’s reopened some European locations, unlike the US, rioters are burning down shops in a fit of rage. 

  • Will Italy Be The Next Country To Leave The EU?
    Will Italy Be The Next Country To Leave The EU?

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/03/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Paul Antonopoulos via InfoBrics,

    On May 27, the political movement Italia Libera submitted a constitutional bill to the Supreme Court of Cassation demanding a referendum for Italy to leave the EU. After years of discussions, the foundation stone was laid for Italians to debate whether they want to remain in the EU or follow the United Kingdom out of the bloc. The draft bill presented by Italia Libera to the Supreme Court of Cassation is entitled “Call for a referendum on the withdrawal of the state from the European Union.”

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    Effectively, Italia Libera has demonstrated that it is possible to follow an institutional path to allow citizens to decide whether they want to remain in the EU or not – and for those who want to leave, now is the best time considering the massive decline in popularity for the bloc after their abandonment of Italy when it was at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic. 

    Gian Luca Proietti Toppi, a lawyer involved in the bill, said that it is necessary to reach ordinary Italians and “open their eyes to the harmful effects of participating in a Union without a soul and based only on finance. It is clear that with the filing of the 50,000 signatures necessary to start the parliamentary process of the proposal, a broad debate will open on the opportunity to exit the cage of the EU and the Euro.”

    He continued to explain that “the effects of liberating the old continent from this bureaucratic and oppressive superstructure will certainly be complex to manage. However, Italia Libera, who is the first promoter of the Committee that collected the signatures needed, has already put experts and academics to work to draw up a plan that will secure the savings of Italians and from the debt.”

    Although he did not mention the EU’s abandonment of Italy during the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, he did emphasize how the bloc financially exploits Italy, just as it does to all of Mediterranean Europe with the exception of France.

    There are many positive aspects to the EU, most notably the free movement of people and a coordinated effort to fight crime through Europol, but these multilateral agreements can exist without a European Parliament and domineering institutions based in Brussels and Strasbourg. As Toppi explained, Italy imagined the EU to be “a community of peoples and not of bankers.” It is for this reason that they announced the bill on the same day an unprecedented European Union Recovery Fund became official. This fund was only established because of the backlash received due to the bloc’s initial disinterest in assisting already struggling economies of the EU that were being further devastated financially by the pandemic.

    With widespread southern European dissatisfaction with how the EU abandoned its supposed liberal ideals, particularly Germany, in favour of serving inward self-interests, bloc leaders are now playing catch up. President of the European Commission and Angela Merkel’s right-hand man in previous German governments, Ursula Von Der Leyen, and the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, who was also a former member of the Troika of bankers, announced the unprecedented measures to assist Europe through its financial woes. This time they promised real aid that would not completely decimate state structures and entire economies like what happened to Greece, Spain, Portugal, and to a lesser extent Italy, for the entirety of the 2010’s. The Governor of the Bank of Italy expects a 13% drop in GDP in 2020, and for this reason Toppi emphasized that Italy does not need any further indebtedness which will increasingly put Italy in the hands of international speculators.

    However, Italians remember that Lagarde announced on March 13, just as coronavirus was truly beginning to overwhelm hospitals, that the pandemic was an Italian problem only. This was the catalyst that saw ordinary Italians begin to remove EU flags from public display and replace them with Russian and Chinese flags in gratitude to the significant assistance that these two countries gave to Italy when it was abandoned by Brussels and Berlin.

    An “Italexit” would be a bigger blow to the prestige of the EU then Brexit. Italy, as a G20 country, uses the Eurodollar unlike Britain which maintained currency sovereignty and continued to use the pound. Therefore, to prevent the strong possibility that Italy in the coming years could leave the EU, Brussels and Berlin must take note of its political failures and work to design a new community that has respect for national sovereignty and identity, and on the basis of reciprocity. It is not acceptable that Germany remains the dominant country of the EU and effectively rules over the European Commission, the European Central Banks, the European Court of Justice and the European Parliament.

    A Europe free of unscrupulous bankers, self-referential bureaucrats and inadequate politicians is at the forefront of those pushing for their respective countries to exit the EU or call for its reformation. However, for this to be achieved, a major state must lead the charge, and it appears that Italy will take on this mantle and could very well be the first Eurodollar state to leave the EU if drastic reformations are not made. And Italian exit will surely have a domino effect felt all across Europe.

  • Gordon Chang On China: What We Must Do, & What We Must Not Do
    Gordon Chang On China: What We Must Do, & What We Must Not Do

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 06/03/2020 – 00:05

    Authored by Gordon Chang via The Gatestone Institute,

    China has attacked America with coronavirus. At this moment, more than 100,000 Americans have been killed. We brace ourselves for the deaths to come.

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    Today, I’ll do two things. First, I’ll talk about the nature of that attack. The second thing, what we must do to protect ourselves.

    First of all, China is not, as many people will tell you, just a competitor. It is an enemy. China is trying to overthrow the international system, and in that process, it is trying to make you subject to modern-day Chinese emperors.

    I know this sounds as if it cannot be true, but we must listen to what Chinese leaders say. When we do that, we realize that to defend the American republic and defend our way of life, we are going to have to decouple from China.

    On May 6, President Donald J. Trump said that China’s attack was worse than Pearl Harbor, worse than the World Trade Center. “There’s never been an attack like this,” he said, and he is right.

    Most critically, Chinese leaders publicly admitted that the novel coronavirus, the pathogen causing COVID-19, could be transmitted from one human to another on January 20.

    Yet doctors in Wuhan, the epicenter, were noticing the contagiousness of this virus no later than the second week in December. Beijing knew a few days after that. If Chinese leaders had said nothing during that five‑week period, that would have been grossly irresponsible.

    What they tried to do, however, was deceive the world into believing that this was not transmissible human-to-human. As a result of that campaign, the World Health Organization (WHO) propagated China’s false narrative, especially with that infamous January 14 tweet:

    “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China.”

    At the same time, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China since 2012, pressured countries not to impose travel restrictions or quarantines on arrivals from China. Again, WHO helped China, this time with its January 10 statement opposing these restrictions.

    What happened was arrivals from China — when Chinese officials knew this virus was human-to human-transmissible — turned what should have been an epidemic contained to China into a global pandemic.

    I don’t know what Xi Jinping, the Chinese ruler, was thinking, but if after having seen what the coronavirus did to cripple China, he decided to cripple other societies to get even, he would have done exactly what in fact he did do.

    That means there is only one inescapable conclusion. This conclusion is that China maliciously spread this virus around the world, sickening people, killing others.

    This is the first time in history that one nation has attacked all the others.

    That is not all. After admitting the human-to-human contagiousness of this disease, Beijing then downplayed it.

    On January 21, the day after formally admitting the disease’s human-to-human transmissibility, Beijing got its propaganda machine in full gear to tell the world that this was less dangerous than SARS.

    SARS is the 2002‑2003 epidemic that according to the World Health Organization infected 8,096 people across the world, killing 744. By then, on January 21, Chinese officials knew it was much worse than SARS.

    According to Der Spiegel, Germany’s intelligence agency, the BND, believes that on January 21 ‑‑ this is the day after China formally admitted human‑to‑human transmissibility of the disease ‑‑ Xi Jinping spoke to Dr. Tedros, the director-general of WHO, and tried to get the organization to hold back information on human‑to‑human transmissibility, as well as to delay declaring a pandemic.

    Now, WHO denies that this phone conversation between Xi and Tedros took place, but it fits known facts. It also fits what the US intelligence community has been saying, according to various reports.

    China’s actions had consequences. Beijing lulled public health officials around the world, including those in the United States, into not taking actions that they otherwise would have adopted.

    Democrats and Chinese communists have criticized President Trump for acting too slowly after he imposed the travel restrictions on China on January 31. If that is true, it is only because people on his coronavirus task force were actually listening to what Beijing was saying and making judgments on what they had heard.

    For instance, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus task force coordinator, in her March 31 press briefing said she had seen the data from China and decided that this was no more dangerous than SARS, but realized, after the infections ripped through both Italy and Spain, that she had been deceived by the Chinese. She is not the only one. Dr. Anthony Fauci has also talked in public about how the Chinese misled him.

    We must impose costs on China. We must impose costs because, first of all, what China did was a crime against all of humanity. We must also impose costs because we need to deter China. This is not going to be the last pathogen generated on Chinese soil. We got to make sure the Chinese leaders do not believe that they can maliciously spread another disease.

    This means there is going to be friction between China and the United States as we Americans take steps to protect ourselves in the future. Those steps are going to cause arrogant and belligerent Chinese to move against us.

    We should take a look about how the arrogant and belligerent Chinese indeed view the international system, how they view the world order. You will hear many analysts say that the friction between the United States and China is just another one of these boys-will-be-boys contests in history.

    The notion is that the United States is jealously protecting its position in the international system fits in with Beijing’s narrative that their rise is inevitable and that we are in terminal decline.

    The truth is that the United States is defending more than just its position in the international system. We are defending the international system itself, the system of treaties, conventions, rules, and norms.

    Unfortunately, Xi Jinping, the Chinese ruler, does not believe in that system. He is trying to impose China’s imperial‑era notions of the world. In other words, he believes that everyone around the world must acknowledge Chinese rule.

    In short, Chinese rulers believed that they had the mandate of heaven over tianxia, meaning “all under heaven.” Xi Jinping has used tianxia‑like language for more than a decade. Recently, his pronouncements have become unmistakable.

    For instance, in his 2017 New Year’s message he said, and I quote, “The Chinese have always held that the world is united and all under heaven” — all under heaven — “are one family.”

    If this were not enough, his foreign minister, Wang Yi, in September of 2017 wrote an article in Study Times, the Central Party School’s influential newspaper. Wang Yi wrote that “Xi Jinping thought” ‑‑ “thought” in Communist Party lingo is an important body of ideological work — “made innovations on and transcended the traditional Western theories of international relations for the past 300 years.”

    If you take 2017 and subtract 300 years, you almost get to 1648. Wang, with his time reference of 300 years, was almost certainly pointing to the Treaty of Westphalia of 1648, which established the current international system. That system recognizes the sovereignty of different states.

    Also, when Wang Yi used the word “transcended,” he was saying that Xi Jinping does not believe that there should be sovereign states, or at least no more sovereign states than China itself. The trend of Xi Jinping’s recent comments is that he doesn’t want to live within the international system. He does not even want to adjust it. He wants to overthrow it altogether.

    This means China once again is a revolutionary state. Now, Xi Jinping, of course, has not had the power to compel others to accept this audacious vision of worldwide Chinese rule.

    Nonetheless, in the last few months, he has seen an historic opportunity because the United States has been stricken by the disease that China itself has pushed out beyond its borders.

    What must we do? First, let us talk about what we must not do.

    We must not save Chinese communism again. In the past, American presidents, when China had been stressed, have ridden to the rescue of the Chinese state. In 1972, for instance, Richard Nixon went to a Beijing that had been weakened by more than a half decade of the Cultural Revolution, signaling America’s support for China’s communism. That is how people in China took that visit.

    The second time, 1989, George H. W. Bush sent Brent Scowcroft, his secret emissary, to Deng Xiaoping in the wake of the Tiananmen massacre. Again, America was telling the Chinese, “Don’t worry about American sanctions, don’t worry about what we say in public, we have your back.”

    The third time, 1999, President William Jefferson Clinton signed a trade deal with China – at a time when the Chinese economy, in reality, was contracting. Certainly, China was suffering geopolitical setbacks. That deal was the basis of China’s entry into the World Trade Organization.

    Despite all these saves of Chinese communism, China’s communist leaders have remained hostile. We have seen this hostility, especially since the first week of February of this year when the Global Times, which is a Communist Party newspaper, and the Chinese foreign ministry have engaged in an inflammatory disinformation campaign against the United States in an attempt to tar the US with all sorts of disease‑related sins.

    This campaign culminated, reached a high point — although this campaign is still continuing today — on March 12th when the foreign ministry went on a Twitter storm. As a part of that Twitter storm, foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that coronavirus patient zero was in the United States.

    In other words, the disease started here. He also suggested that the US Army carried the disease to Wuhan. We were seeing daily stories about how the United States had been spreading the disease around the world.

    Now, Americans, of course, were taken by surprise by this Twitter storm, but we really should not be — because on May 13 of last year Beijing declared a “people’s war” on the United States. This means the contest with China is existential. There is going to be one survivor. It is going to be either the Peoples’ Republic of China or the United States of America, not both.

    We have just heard about what we should not be doing. We should not be rescuing Chinese communism.

    What should we do? In my call for action, there are eight items.

    First, we need to cut off trade with China. Now, I know a lot of people think we should not do this, or this would be unfortunate.

    Yes, this is unfortunate, but the point is that China’s communism cannot be reformed, so the only way we can protect American society and Americans is to reduce our exposure to China and our great exposure, of course, is trade. In any event, we should not be enriching a hostile state with the proceeds of commerce with the United States.

    This means, of course, that we need to get our factories off Chinese soil, but especially our pharmaceutical factories. China has been threatening to throw the United States into what it calls “a mighty sea of coronavirus,” and it has not been kidding.

    For instance, we know the Chinese have turned around at least one ship carrying personal protective equipment — masks, gowns, gloves — that were on their way to New York hospitals. Moreover, Peter Navarro has said China has even nationalized one American factory in China producing those N‑95 masks.

    China’s leadership always talks about how it is not possible for the US and China to “decouple.” Now, it is possible. Our job is to make it inevitable.

    Second thing that we need to do: The administration is well on the way to making sure federal pension money is not invested in China’s markets. We also need to make sure that state pension money, and money from individuals, is not put into China’s markets. We should not be enriching China with our investments into its equity markets.

    Third thing, we need to make China pay. Now, many people have sued the Chinese central government. There are class‑action suits in the federal district courts in Florida, Texas, and Nevada. Of course, the Chinese Central Government has sovereign immunity, but there are a number of bills in Congress, including one sponsored by Senator Blackburn and Representative Lance Gooden.

    There is also another bill sponsored by Tom Cotton and Dan Crenshaw, and these would strip China of sovereign immunity. I believe Josh Hawley, the Senator from Missouri, also has a bill.

    The State of Missouri, by the way, has sued the Communist Party of China, which is far more important and far richer than the Chinese central government. Guess what? China’s Communist Party does not have sovereign immunity.

    People have also been talking about seizing China’s holdings of US Treasury obligations. According to official records, it holds more than a trillion dollars. In reality, it is probably a bit higher than that because China holds US Treasuries through nominees.

    Of course, China would engage in a vociferous propaganda campaign if we did that. Beijing would say we are repudiating our debt. They would also say we are not responsible members and stewards of the global financial system. They would be wrong, they would be incorrect, but the US might suffer reputational damage.

    That is why I think we should seize Treasuries, but we should be doing this in connection with the holders and issuers of other major currencies. For instance, the Canadian dollar, the British pound, the European Union’s euro, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, maybe the Singapore dollar

    When we act with others, this becomes not a China-versus-US issue but an issue of China versus the world. No one country is going to suffer reputational damage.

    Of course, Beijing could nationalize American factories in China, but I’m not so sure they’re going to do that because China would be hurt far more than we would by that.

    Remember that China’s economy is still in a contraction phase and it is still export‑dominated, which means it needs those factories on its soil.

    Fourth, with the possibility of the coronavirus escaping from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, we are now thinking about whether China has a biological weapons program in contravention of its obligations under the Biological Weapons Convention.

    Right now, we have seen all sorts of circumstantial evidence suggesting lab leak, and we have seen all sorts of circumstantial evidence that the Chinese military has been involved in the cleanup.

    The Biological Weapons Convention does not have an inspections regime.

    The item on my action list is that the United States should insist on inspections of China’s labs, and if we cannot get inspections we should withdraw from the Convention. I am not saying that the novel coronavirus was a biological weapon. We really do not know.

    The one thing we do know is that in China’s labs, they have been engineering coronaviruses in the past. They have issued scientific papers on this, and what they are doing is extremely risky.

    Fifth, we should make sure that China does not mess in our elections. China was extremely active in the 2018 midterms. They were concerned about President Trump’s tariffs, and they actually did have an effect in electing Democrats to the House of Representatives.

    We know they are going to do that, or something like that, this time. The New York Times a few weeks ago said they are trying to sow chaos in the American public square by disseminating false rumors.

    Sixth, we need to stop China from using its nationals to systematically gather information on our soil. Unfortunately, we have had a series of American presidents who have, for various reasons, either done nothing about China’s intelligence operations here, or the actions they took were deliberately ineffective.

    We know that China’s diplomats operate on our soil, sometimes spying, other times in a manner inconsistent with the diplomatic status they have. Also, China’s Ministry of State Security agents operate here, freely.

    We need to “rip and replace” all the equipment in our telecom backbone that has been supplied by Huawei Technologies, China’s telecom equipment manufacturer. China has been using that company’s equipment to spy on others. We should have no Huawei equipment in our backbone.

    Also, we should be turfing out even more Chinese journalists. Those “journalists,” we know, work for China’s intelligence services. We have allowed them to stay on our soil for far too long. Secretary of State Pompeo has expelled many of them, and we need to complete the job.

    We have to remember that China’s 2017 National Intelligence Law requires every Chinese citizen and every Chinese entity to spy if demanded, which means that Chinese nationals on our soil can be under a compulsion to engage in intelligence collection.

    Seventh, let’s remove China from our cable networks and our newsstands. We should not be allowing China to exploit the openness of our system to try to end it.

    Eighth, and the last, we have to deter China, which right now is engaging in what people in Beijing call “wolf warrior” diplomacy. For instance, we see Xi Jinping, with these threats to invade Taiwan.

    Since the middle of February, there have been these boat-bumping and other provocative engagements in the South China and East China Seas against almost all of China’s sea neighbors. A Chinese diplomat laid the groundwork for taking over Kazakhstan, in Central Asia, and also China has moved to end the autonomy in Hong Kong.

    China is lashing out, challenging everybody at the same time. This is a Maoist tactic, and it suggests problems inside the Chinese political system. In any event, we know that this is an incredibly dangerous moment for everyone.

    One final note. Pushed by China, the Trump Administration is moving to an historic rupture with the People’s Republic of China. Because of this, we are seeing changes in the five‑decade‑old engagement policy.

    Those changes are absolutely essential for us because, without them, we cannot be self‑reliant.

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    Q: As an attorney, do you feel there is any way to hold China accountable, liable for financial compensation to devastated nations ravaged by their actions?

    If so, as a practical matter, exactly how? Are there US companies that were collaborating with Wuhan labs via research responsible for this corona strain?

    Chang: Great. I should say I haven’t practiced law for two decades, and I’ve given up my bar memberships. I’m more than happy to answer that question, however. First of all, as I mentioned, China does have sovereign immunity.

    Now, a lot of people will tell you, and this is not an unreasonable argument, that sovereign immunity benefits the US more than any other nation. I do believe the fight with China is existential. To me, it’s important that we make China pay.

    As I said, we can avoid this sovereign immunity issue ‑‑ and which would have some blowback for the US ‑‑ if the plaintiffs sue the Communist Party. Because the Communist Party is not sovereign.

    In China, there’s a clear distinction between the party and the state. The state has sovereign immunity like other countries and other states have, but the party does not. We can go after the party.

    By the way, the party actually has more control over China’s enterprises, which means it should be considered to be the owner of those enterprises. So, it has assets to seize.

    We talk about China’s military. Actually, it is not a state army. It is an army of the Communist Party, which means that if we can find a Chinese plane, or a ship, or whatever, that would be subject to a successful suit in US Court because there’s no sovereign immunity and it’s a party army.

    Having said all that, I think where we are going to seize assets will be the Treasuries. We should be working, as mentioned, with our allies and friends so that all countries in the world seize China’s assets. That, I think, will work.

    Q. Are there US companies that were collaborating with Wuhan labs via research responsible for this corona strain?

    Chang: I don’t think so. The Wuhan Institute of Virology was built with French companies, not American, as far as I know. Of course, the issue here is not corporate support but is US government support.

    The US has chipped in, most famously, $3.7 million to the Wuhan Institute of Virology for research on bats. Many people think that the novel coronavirus is derived from a bat. I think part of the reason for the contribution is that the United States thought that experimenting on bat viruses was really too risky to be done in the US, so it decided to let the Chinese do it.

    That is crazy. If it is too dangerous for us to do it, it’s too dangerous for the Chinese to do it, especially because we know that in China’s labs ‑‑ although the Wuhan Institute of Virology has a P4 biosafety lab, that is the highest level of safety standards ‑‑ we know that the Chinese do not adhere to those standards.

    In 2018, State Department teams that visited the Wuhan Institute of Virology came away appalled — actually I should say alarmed — because they saw that Chinese technicians were not adhering to safety standards and protocols.

    Also, we had those China Daily pictures. China Daily is an official state media publication. They tried to convince the world how safe the Wuhan Institute was so they posted these pictures, and those pictures actually documented broken or bent seals on refrigerators, a real safety problem.

    We know that that lab was a walking disaster and something was going to happen. Unfortunately, it looks as if it did. Probably the coronavirus was an accidental lab release.

    Q: How would you advise key US allies?

    Chang: I advise every country to cut their trade relations with China because of the danger China poses.

    The general view I have is that the world just needs to cut relations with China. If it were possible to reform Chinese communism, maybe that would be a worthwhile experiment, but we Americans have tried that for almost a half‑century and it has not worked.

    As a matter of fact, our engagement of China has produced the opposite of what we wanted. We now have a richer and stronger China, more belligerent, more provocative, more aggressive, and much more dangerous. We have got to reverse what was clearly then, and is certainly clearly now, a misguided policy.

    Q: What can we do now to try and protect us from more of these viral attacks?

    Chang: The less trade and travel we have with China, then the better we are going to be. If there is no Chinese traveler, there would be no global pandemic. There would be no infections outside China. What we are going to have to do is to severely restrict travel from China.

    We have to do this at least until we get our hands around this issue. Clearly, we have not been able to manage this. We have this notion, and everybody accepts it, at least implicitly, about globalization, comparative advantage, all of these things that have underpinned our modern world.

    Unfortunately, China does not believe in comparative advantage, it does not believe in being a responsible member of the international community. Unfortunately, the only thing we can do is what many people think is unthinkable, and that is to cut our ties with China.

    We cut our ties until we feel comfortable dealing with China, which in my mind means that the Communist Party no longer rules, that the Chinese people govern themselves, and then we can get along with them. I believe the Chinese people eventually will get this right.

    At least at the moment, until they get it right, we have an obligation to our own citizens to cut those links. Because without those links, we are not going to have the next disease. Remember, China produces, especially in southern China, a lot of disease. Most of the world’s diseases do come from southern China.

    This is not some academic question. Unfortunately, the remedy is severe, but I do not know how else we do this because you just cannot cooperate with China. You have got to cut your links.

    Q: What might be possible in the way of the US government exposing details on high‑ranking members of the CCP’s overseas bank accounts, family dealings, and for instance, how Xi, on a government salary, paid for his daughter’s attendance at Harvard.

    The press has covered some of these things, but that is different from official confirmation and surely greater access to such things as bank records.

    Chang: I think we should just publicize it, and seize the assets of Chinese leaders in the United States. We have the Global Magnitsky Act.

    These guys, even before the coronavirus episode, were engaging in a crime against humanity with the detention of somewhere between 1.3 and 3 million Uyghurs, Kazakhs, and other peoples of Turkic backgrounds in what China calls Xinjiang, the northwestern part of China.

    We know that people were dying in those camps because China has been building crematoria. We know that this is an attempt to eliminate a religion, to eliminate ethnic identity. This is very close to genocide. If it is not genocide, it is as bad as what the Third Reich did before the mass extermination of what, 1941?

    That alone should give us justification for applying the Global Magnitsky Act and just seizing all their assets in this country. As I mentioned, I believe this was a deliberate spread of the coronavirus. More than 100,000 Americans have died. We have the right to do everything we can within our power to protect ourselves and to punish wrongdoers.

    We may not be able to bring Xi Jinping to The Hague. We may not be able to put him in that prison we have in Florence, Colorado, otherwise known as the Supermax. We may not be able to put him in Guantanamo, but we sure can seize his assets.

    Q: Please discuss what we need to do to regain the technology commanding heights, national industrial plan, whole of government, whole of economy, society, Sputnik‑like program.

    Chang: It is a whole-of-society approach. You go back maybe 10 years, China was not considered to be a tech competitor. Right now, it is ahead in crucial technologies such as, for instance, 5G, the fifth generation of wireless communications, and in quantum communications it has at least a half‑decade lead on us.

    This is really stunning because this whole theoretical notion of quantum communications was developed by an American, Albert Einstein. For us, this is just Americans not paying attention.

    It is also, of course, China’s stealing. China steals somewhere between $150 to $600 billion of US intellectual property each year, and now, the FBI is warning that it is trying to steal vaccines and medical‑related information.

    What China has been able to do, and it is more than just that, it has had determined programs to develop technology. For instance, China has its 13th Five‑Year Plan, which is just about finished. It has the Made in China 2025 Initiative, where medicines and medical equipment comprise one of the 10 sectors that China wants to dominate by the year 2025.

    These are, for China, a whole-of-society approach toward developing technology. We really need to do the same thing, and we can do it. President John F. Kennedy went to Rice University and said, “We are going to go to the moon.” That was a time when the Soviets were well ahead of us.

    Through federal programs, through cooperation with business, just through everything, we were able to put the first man on the moon. By the way, no other country has left earth orbit, but the Chinese probably are ahead of us in the race to get back to the moon.

    For us, I think what we are going to have to adopt the whole-of-society approach. The one thing that we should focus on is our universities. We have Chinese students and others taking in ways which are sometimes violative of federal law, sometimes just inconsistent with their status on campus.

    They have been stealing, downloading entire databases, doing all the rest of this. We need to stop that. I know Chinese students, Chinese professors play a large role in our campuses, but they have also been taking US technology. We need to end that.

    For me, it means a renewed approach. One of the ways we can stop this is, we have allowed Chinese diplomats and Ministry of State Security agents to surveil Chinese students on campus. That means Chinese students feel really under a compulsion to do what Beijing wants.

    We are Americans. This is our country. We can get those diplomats out of those campuses, get the Chinese agents off our soil. That is up to us. To me, this is important of course. I’m here because my dad came here as a student in 1945, just before the end of the war.

    I think we have got a long way to go, to solving what I think is actually the most complex issue we face: what do you do with Chinese students on American campuses? There are no easy solutions, but we need to address this in a much more rigorous way than we have been. We must do all of those things, that means we have a whole-of-society approach.

    Q: Pharmaceuticals, how can we best replace the Chinese market? And rare earth strategic elements. Does the US have adequate resources to produce our own? How can we best disconnect from the dependence on the Chinese market?

    Chang: On rare earths, we have rare earths in our country and our allies’ — most notably, Canada and Australia — have a lot of rare earths. What we do not have is the refining capacity. Stuff mined in countries other than China is actually shipped to China to be refined.

    That has occurred because we do not want to suffer the environmental damage caused by refining rare earths, which in the past has really been awful. New technologies, and those that are coming on-stream now, mitigate much of the environmental impact. I think we need to start refining rare earths in North America.

    If not here, then in Canada, which has huge deposits of many of the rare earths. It is a political decision for us to make, that we decide not to be dependent on China.

    With regard to pharmaceuticals, Peter Navarro, President Trump’s trade adviser, has been talking for weeks about an executive order that would require the federal government to not buy pharmaceuticals from China. That EO has yet to be signed.

    I think there is intense fighting at the top of the administration: trade groups and pharmaceutical companies have been fighting that executive order. This is something the President needs to do. It is in his power.

    He can wake up one morning and say to the pharmaceutical companies, “I don’t care what you think. This is a national security issue.” You remember that on July 21, 2017, President Trump signed that executive order on supply chain robustness.

    We know on March 24 of this year he talked about what is now called his American independence agenda, which is Americans making things for Americans.

    Remember, he has the power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to do a lot of stuff, including getting pharmaceutical companies out of China. It’s up to him. We should be, I hope, putting pressure on the White House to do what should be done because he is getting a lot of pressure on the other side. President Trump can do this.

    Now, one other note. I do not do domestic politics, but I have noticed that there is an election this year. That is probably going to slow down the reaction of the president to many of the initiatives I think should be taken, but nonetheless, this is a really critical one. We cannot allow China to make our pharmaceuticals.

    We should not be relying on any single country to the extent that we are relying on China, but certainly not a hostile regime that threatens to cut off products. Again, this is a question of American political will.

    Q: How do we get other countries to join us in this effort? They are already getting blackmailed by China. If they criticize China, it punishes them over trade. Australia dared to join 100 countries asking for an investigation into coronavirus origin.

    China responded by imposing 80% tariffs on Australian agricultural imports. How can we help other countries to stand up to China?

    Chang: At the World Health Assembly, which just concluded, the resolution for an independent investigation of the origins of the coronavirus actually was sponsored by 144 countries. It passed without objection.

    This is an investigation which China does not want, although China eventually saw the handwriting on the wall and decided not to oppose it. I think we get to this is a couple of ways. One of them is, the intelligence community, our intelligence community, has a lot of information which is going to throw a light on what China actually did, in terms of spreading the coronavirus.

    I know that the intelligence community does not like disclosing a lot of this stuff because it compromises sources and methods. Every once in a while, you get an intelligence issue which is so critical to the future of our country.

    I think that this is one of those where disclosure of information really is important. Once countries know what China did in terms of deliberately spreading this coronavirus, I think it is over for China.

    With regard to Australia, because Australia was the second country to propose this investigation after we did, China has decided to punish Australia more than any other country, especially with those tariffs on barley.

    This is one of those cases where we Americans should start buying Australian barley. We have got to show Beijing that we can out-muscle them. Remember, China looks fearsome because it has had economic growth.

    China right now is in a contraction phase, and it has also got one other huge problem, and that is a lot of its Belt and Road loans to other countries are coming due this year. These countries cannot pay China back, which means China’s debt‑trap diplomacy is trapping not just the debtors, but it’s trapping China itself.

    What we should be doing is making sure these countries do not pay back, because this is one way to starve the beast. There are many different ways to do it, cutting off trade, cutting off investments.

    Those are things we can do, and we can be working with our allies, our friends, and countries that normally are not our friends. They now have an interest in opposing China, so we should be working with them.

    Q: To what extent do you consider Xi’s position as head of the CCP to be precarious? Might concerns about his own vulnerability have anything to do with his renewed aggressiveness?

    Chang: That’s the question I wish I knew the answer to. There are a number of things that can be said. Of course, China’s political system is not transparent. Especially at moments like this, it can be very opaque. I think this is one of those do-or-die moments for Xi Jinping. I mean that literally.

    You have got to remember, Xi has changed the nature of the Chinese political system. Under Hu Jintao, his predecessor, it was collective, which means a Chinese leader really did not get blamed for things that went wrong.

    Also, he did not get that much credit: all decisions were essentially made by consensus, especially at the Politburo Standing Committee, but even in the wider Politburo. The Chinese leader did not worry too much about things going bad.

    Xi Jinping, of course, has taken that consensus system that he inherited at the end of 2012, and he has made it more or less into a one‑person system where he is the one person. Which means, of course, he has the greater accountability that goes along with that great power.

    Xi Jinping, even before the coronavirus, was having a pretty bad year, in 2019, because he had a stumbling economy. He had problems in Hong Kong. He had some pretty unhappy people in China.

    What Xi has done is run roughshod over everybody. As long as he can do that, he is safe. You have got to remember, though: people have not forgotten what Xi Jinping has done to them in terms of taking away their power, putting their family members in jail, all the rest of this.

    They are sort of waiting on the sidelines for an opportunity to strike back. When Xi Jinping stumbles, they will strike back. This is a particularly important time for Xi because what he is trying to do is intimidate the world with this “wolf warrior” diplomacy.

    If he succeeds, he is golden. If he does not succeed, if the world starts to contain China, starts to reduce relations with Beijing, all the rest of it, he is gone. By gone, I mean, he not only loses his position, he also loses perhaps his freedom, his assets, and maybe even his life.

    He has taken what was a consensus-driven system and made it like the Maoist political system of the first years of the People’s Republic. When people lost political struggles, they not only lost power, they sometimes were executed.

    Xi Jinping knows what is at stake right now. There are rumors ‑‑ I don’t know how much weight to give them ‑‑ that he is not going to get a third term as general secretary at the next Communist Party Congress in 2022. I tend to believe them, but I think that has not yet been determined.

    What is interesting is that people in Beijing are talking about that. Which means that it probably is an option for the party to ditch Xi Jinping at the next opportunity. We shall see.

    Q: Can we analyze some of the pharmaceuticals or even vitamins that come in that possibly show pathogens because of their poor oversight and loose regulations?

    Chang: The answer is yes. We have had in the past medicines coming from China that have been adulterated. For instance, in the middle of this decade, maybe even earlier, Heparin, the blood thinner, was adulterated.

    I do not think China would intentionally try to adulterate their vaccines and stuff. Nonetheless, they have had these fake vaccines scandals periodically in China. One not too long ago. We have got to be very concerned.

    China can actually get to a vaccine before anybody else does if for no other reason that they are willing to cut corners. It is important for us to make sure that whatever China comes up with is not only effective but also safe.

    Xi Jinping at the World Health Assembly address that he gave a couple of days ago, said he was going to share the vaccine with the world. I am happy if that is the case, but we have to be concerned that what they come up with is probably going to be ineffective or dangerous.

    The Chinese are not going to test. They are not going to adhere to the same safety protocols that the rest of the world will. We need to be really concerned about what comes out of China in terms of a vaccine.

  • Already-Obese Average Americans Have Drunk & Eaten Their Way To An Extra 5lbs During Lockdown
    Already-Obese Average Americans Have Drunk & Eaten Their Way To An Extra 5lbs During Lockdown

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 23:45

    Months of coronavirus lockdowns have resulted in the average American body weight to increase by about five extra pounds, a new survey found. 

    With gyms, yoga and spin studios, and recreational facilities closed in most parts of the country; many were forced to “Netflix and quarantine” for several months. 

    The study, commissioned by Naked Nutrition, a firm that sells dietary supplements, surveyed 2,000 Americans and found at least half who said they would never get their pre-corona body back.

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    At least 65% said they had “let themselves go a bit” during the lockdowns. Respondents said it would take several months of intense workouts to revert to their pre-corona weight. 

    About three weeks into the lockdown (in early April), Americans resorted to watching porn, drinking beer, smoking pot, and devouring chocolate to cope with quarantine stress and job loss. 

    The survey found many folks developed unhealthy habits; a third said the consumption of alcohol surged during lockdowns, and more than 50% said their carbohydrate-loading increased. A little more than half (54%) said they increased vegetable intake, and 46% said they increased protein intake. 

    Bloomberg’s Michael McDonough shows an exponential jump in US beer, wine, and spirits consumption during the lockdowns. 

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    h/t BBG 

    Read: ‘We Have To Adjust To New Reality’ – Pandemic Leads To Surge In Americans Drinking At Home

    Nearly 64% of respondents said lockdowns made them unhealthy. Two-thirds of respondents said they turned to an in-home exercise routine to counter weight gain. 

    When it came to exercise, half bought gym equipment for the home. The top five purchases were yoga mats (45%), a stationary bike (41%), chairs (39%), and ankle weights (39%).

    As gyms were forced to close, many went bankrupt, resulting in Americans purchasing Peloton bikes for their home. 

    “The COVID-19 has been a stressful time for many, but maintaining a healthy lifestyle can support a person’s overall health and should remain a priority. This data highlights the importance of finding simple solutions for people to be able to maintain a healthy lifestyle while in isolation,” said Registered Dietitian Nutritionist Lauren Manaker in a statement.

    The study also said 50% of respondents had added dietary supplements to their daily routine, 44% have started eating protein bars, and 43% have added protein powder to their diet.

    Months of lockdowns have made Americans more obese but with mass social unrest across the country, some will clearly burn the excess weight as they run from National Guard troops. 

  • This Is Not A Revolution. It's A Blueprint For Locking Down The Nation
    This Is Not A Revolution. It’s A Blueprint For Locking Down The Nation

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 23:25

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “When it gets down to having to use violence, then you are playing the system’s game. The establishment will irritate you—pull your beard, flick your face—to make you fight. Because once they’ve got you violent, then they know how to handle you.”

    – John Lennon

    Brace yourselves.

    There is something being concocted in the dens of power, far beyond the public eye, and it doesn’t bode well for the future of this country.

    Anytime you have an entire nation so mesmerized by political theater and public spectacle that they are oblivious to all else, you’d better beware.

    Anytime you have a government that operates in the shadows, speaks in a language of force, and rules by fiat, you’d better beware.

    And anytime you have a government so far removed from its people as to ensure that they are never seen, heard or heeded by those elected to represent them, you’d better beware.

    What is unfolding before us is not a revolution.

    The looting, the burning, the rioting, the violence: this is an anti-revolution.

    The protesters are playing right into the government’s hands, because the powers-that-be want this. They want an excuse to lockdown the nation and throw the switch to all-out martial law. They want a reason to make the police state stronger.

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    It’s happening faster than we can keep up.

    The Justice Department is deploying federal prison riot teams to various cities. More than half of the nation’s governors are calling on the National Guard to quell civil unrest. Growing numbers of cities, having just barely emerged from a coronavirus lockdown, are once again being locked down, this time in response to the growing upheaval.

    This is how it begins.

    It’s that dystopian 2030 Pentagon training video all over again, which anticipates the need for the government to institute martial law (use armed forces to solve domestic political and social problems) in order to navigate a world bedeviled by “criminal networks,” “substandard infrastructure,” “religious and ethnic tensions,” “impoverishment, slums,” “open landfills, over-burdened sewers,” a “growing mass of unemployed,” and an urban landscape in which the prosperous economic elite must be protected from the impoverishment of the have nots.

    We’re way ahead of schedule.

    The architects of the police state have us exactly where they want us: under their stamping boot, gasping for breath, desperate for freedom, grappling for some semblance of a future that does not resemble the totalitarian prison being erected around us.

    This way lies certain tyranny.

    For just one fleeting moment, “we the people” seemed united in our outrage over this latest killing of an unarmed man by a cop hyped up on his own authority and the power of his uniform.

    That unity didn’t last.

    Indeed, it didn’t take long—no surprise there—for us to quickly become divided again, polarized by the misguided fury and senseless violence of mobs taking to the streets, reeking of madness and mayhem.

    Deliberately or not, the rioters have directed our attention away from the government’s crimes and onto their own.

    This is a distraction.

    Don’t allow yourself to be so distracted.

    Let’s not lose sight of what started all of this in the first place: the U.S. government.

    More than terrorism, more than domestic extremism, more than gun violence and organized crime, the systemic violence being perpetrated by agents of the government constitutes a greater menace to the life, liberty and property of its citizens than any of the so-called dangers from which the government claims to protect us.

    Case in point: George Floyd died at the hands of the American police state.

    The callous, cold-blooded murder of the unarmed, 46-year-old black man by police is nothing new: for 8 minutes and 46 seconds, police knelt on Floyd’s neck while the man pleaded for his life, struggled to breathe, cried out for his dead mother, and finally passed out and died.

    Floyd is yet another victim of a broken system of policing that has placed “we the people” at the mercy of militarized cops who have almost absolute discretion to decide who is a threat, what constitutes resistance, and how harshly they can deal with the citizens they were appointed to “serve and protect.”

    Daily, Americans are being shot, stripped, searched, choked, beaten and tasered by police for little more than daring to frown, smile, question, challenge an order or just exist.

    I’m talking about the growing numbers of unarmed people are who being shot and killed for just standing a certain way, or moving a certain way, or holding something—anything—that police could misinterpret to be a gun, or igniting some trigger-centric fear in a police officer’s mind that has nothing to do with an actual threat to their safety.

    Killed by police for standing in a “shooting stance.” Killed for holding a cell phone. Killed for holding a baseball bat. Killed for opening the front door. Killed for being a child in a car pursued by police. Killed for approaching police while holding a metal spoon. Killed for running in an aggressive manner while holding a tree branch. Killed for crawling around naked. Killed for hunching over in a defensive posture. Killed because a police officer accidentally fired his gun instead of his taser. Killed for wearing dark pants and a basketball jersey. Killed for reaching for his license and registration during a traffic stop. Killed for driving while deaf. Killed for being homeless. Killed for brandishing a shoehorn. Killed for peeing outdoors. Killed for having his car break down on the road. Killed for holding a garden hose.

    Now you can make all kinds of excuses to justify these shootings, and in fact that’s exactly what you’ll hear from politicians, police unions, law enforcement officials and individuals who are more than happy to march in lockstep with the police. However, as these incidents make clear, the only truly compliant, submissive and obedient citizen in a police state is a dead one.

    Sad, isn’t it, how quickly we have gone from a nation of laws—where the least among us had just as much right to be treated with dignity and respect as the next person (in principle, at least)—to a nation of law enforcers (revenue collectors with weapons) who treat us all like suspects and criminals?

    This is not how you keep the peace.

    This is not justice. This is not even law and order.

    This is certainly not freedom. This is the illusion of freedom.

    Unfortunately, we are now being ruled by a government of psychopaths, scoundrels, spies, thugs, thieves, gangsters, ruffians, rapists, extortionists, bounty hunters, battle-ready warriors and cold-blooded killers who communicate using a language of force and oppression.

    The facts speak for themselves.

    We’re being ravaged by a government of ruffians, rapists and killers. It’s not just the police shootings of unarmed citizens that are worrisome. It’s the SWAT team raids gone wrong that are leaving innocent citizens wounded, children terrorized and family pets killed. It’s the roadside strip searches—in some cases, cavity searches of men and women alike carried out in full view of the public—in pursuit of drugs that are never found. It’s the potentially lethal—and unwarranted—use of so-called “nonlethal” weapons such as tasers on children for “mouthing off to a police officer. For trying to run from the principal’s office. For, at the age of 12, getting into a fight with another girl.”

    We’re being held at gunpoint by a government of soldiers—a standing army. While Americans are being made to jump through an increasing number of hoops in order to exercise their Second Amendment right to own a gun, the government is arming its own civilian employees to the hilt with guns, ammunition and military-style equipment, authorizing them to make arrests, and training them in military tactics. Among the agencies being supplied with night-vision equipment, body armor, hollow-point bullets, shotguns, drones, assault rifles and LP gas cannons are the Smithsonian, U.S. Mint, Health and Human Services, IRS, FDA, Small Business Administration, Social Security Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Education Department, Energy Department, Bureau of Engraving and Printing and an assortment of public universities. There are now reportedly more bureaucratic (non-military) government civilians armed with high-tech, deadly weapons than U.S. Marines. That doesn’t even begin to touch on the government’s arsenal, the transformation of local police into extensions of the military, and the speed with which the nation could be locked down under martial law depending on the circumstances. Clearly, the government is preparing for war—and a civil war, at that—and “we the people” are the perceived enemy.

    We’re being taken advantage of by a government of scoundrels, idiots and cowards. American satirist H.L. Mencken calculated that “Congress consists of one-third, more or less, scoundrels; two-thirds, more or less, idiots; and three-thirds, more or less, poltroons.” By and large, Americans seem to agree. When you’ve got government representatives who spend a large chunk of their work hours fundraising, being feted by lobbyists, shuffling through a lucrative revolving door between public service and lobbying, and making themselves available to anyone with enough money to secure access to a congressional office, you’re in the clutches of a corrupt oligarchy. Mind you, these same elected officials rarely read the legislation they’re enacting, nor do they seem capable of enacting much legislation that actually helps rather than hinders the plight of the American citizen.

    We’re being locked up by a government of greedy jailers. We have become a carceral state, spending three times more on our prisons than on our schools and imprisoning close to a quarter of the world’s prisoners, despite the fact that crime is at an all-time low and the U.S. makes up only 5% of the world’s population. The rise of overcriminalization and profit-driven private prisons provides even greater incentives for locking up American citizens for such non-violent “crimes” as having an overgrown lawn.  As the Boston Review points out, “America’s contemporary system of policing, courts, imprisonment, and parole … makes money through asset forfeiture, lucrative public contracts from private service providers, and by directly extracting revenue and unpaid labor from populations of color and the poor. In states and municipalities throughout the country, the criminal justice system defrays costs by forcing prisoners and their families to pay for punishment. It also allows private service providers to charge outrageous fees for everyday needs such as telephone calls. As a result people facing even minor criminal charges can easily find themselves trapped in a self-perpetuating cycle of debt, criminalization, and incarceration.”

    We’re being spied on by a government of Peeping Toms. The government, aided by its corporate allies, is watching everything you do, reading everything you write, listening to everything you say, and monitoring everything you spend. Omnipresent surveillance is paving the way for government programs that profile citizens, document their behavior and attempt to predict what they might do in the future, whether it’s what they might buy, what politician they might support, or what kinds of crimes they might commit. The impact of this far-reaching surveillance, according to Psychology Today, is “reduced trust, increased conformity, and even diminished civic participation.” As technology analyst Jillian C. York concludes, “Mass surveillance without due process—whether undertaken by the government of Bahrain, Russia, the US, or anywhere in between—threatens to stifle and smother that dissent, leaving in its wake a populace cowed by fear.”

    We’re being forced to surrender our freedoms—and those of our children—to a government of extortionists, money launderers and professional pirates. The American people have been repeatedly sold a bill of goods about how the government needs more money, more expansive powers, and more secrecy (secret courts, secret budgets, secret military campaigns, secret surveillance) in order to keep us safe. Under the guise of fighting its wars on terror, drugs, domestic extremism, pandemics and civil unrest, the government has spent billions in taxpayer dollars on endless wars that have sown the seeds of blowback, surveillance programs that have subjected all Americans to a surveillance society, and militarized police that have turned communities into warzones.

    We’re being robbed blind by a government of thieves. Americans no longer have any real protection against government agents empowered to seize private property at will. For instance, police agencies under the guise of asset forfeiture laws are taking property based on little more than a suspicion of criminal activity.

    And we’re being forced to live in a perpetual state of emergency. From 9/11 through the COVID-19 lockdowns and now the threat of martial law in the face of growing civil unrest, we have witnessed the rise of an “emergency state” that justifies all manner of government tyranny and power grabs in the so-called name of national security.

    Whatever else it may be—a danger, a menace, a threat—the U.S. government is certainly not looking out for our best interests, nor is it in any way a friend to freedom.

    When the government views itself as superior to the citizenry, when it no longer operates for the benefit of the people, when the people are no longer able to peacefully reform their government, when government officials cease to act like public servants, when elected officials no longer represent the will of the people, when the government routinely violates the rights of the people and perpetrates more violence against the citizenry than the criminal class, when government spending is unaccountable and unaccounted for, when the judiciary act as courts of order rather than justice, and when the government is no longer bound by the laws of the Constitution, then you no longer have a government “of the people, by the people and for the people.”

    What we have is a government of wolves.

    Our backs are against the proverbial wall.

    The government and its cohorts have conspired to ensure that the only real recourse the American people have to express their displeasure with the government is through voting, which is no real recourse at all.

    The penalties for civil disobedience, whistleblowing and rebellion are severe. If you refuse to pay taxes for government programs you believe to be immoral or illegal, you will go to jail. If you attempt to overthrow the government—or any agency thereof—because you believe it has overstepped its reach, you will go to jail. If you attempt to blow the whistle on government misconduct, there’s a pretty good chance you will go to jail.

    For too long, the American people have obeyed the government’s dictates, no matter now extreme. We have paid its taxes, penalties and fines, no matter how outrageous. We have tolerated its indignities, insults and abuses, no matter how egregious. We have turned a blind eye to its indiscretions and incompetence, no matter how imprudent. We have held our silence in the face of its lawlessness, licentiousness and corruption, no matter how illicit.

    We have suffered.

    How long we will continue to suffer depends on how much we’re willing to give up for the sake of freedom.

    America’s founders provided us with a very specific explanation about the purpose of government and a roadmap for what to do when the government abuses its authority, ignores our objections, and establishes itself as a tyrant.

    We must choose between peaceful slavery (in other words, maintaining the status quo in servitude to the police state) and dangerous freedom. That will mean carving out a path in which we begin to take ownership of our government, starting at the local level, challenging the status quo, and raising hell—nonviolently—whenever a government official steps out of line.

    We can no longer maintain the illusion of freedom.

    As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, we are at our most vulnerable right now.

  • Idaho Town Taken Over By Armed 'Patriot' Patrols Amid Rumors Antifa Headed There
    Idaho Town Taken Over By Armed ‘Patriot’ Patrols Amid Rumors Antifa Headed There

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 23:05

    Amid rumors of mass protests and riots in the northwest Idaho city of Coeur d’Alene, some locals weren’t having it, and armed themselves to patrol city streets lined with small businesses

    It’s a trend giving rise to fears that violent armed clashes between different American factions are imminent. Already videos from cities across the nation have depicted counter-demonstrators taking matters into their own hands as police retreat. 

    “Reports and rumors that groups bent on rioting and violence in Coeur d’Alene brought out men and women with guns on Monday determined to stop them if they arrive,” local Idaho media reported.

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    Image source: Coer d’Alene/Post Falls Press

    “Dan Carson was patrolling Sherman Avenue with an AR-12 automatic 12-gauge across his chest, an AR-15 strapped to his back, two 9mm handguns holstered and a .38 special, too,” the report continued.

    Groups of loosely affiliated ‘Proud Boys’ and armed ‘patriots’ began lining the streets of downtown Coeur d’Alene over reports left wing militants and Antifa anarchists were planning to cause mayhem in the area:

    Soon, more armed men, self-described as a loosely formed group of patriots, arrived. They took up posts at corners on both sides of Sherman Avenue.

    Later, they were joined by hundreds of citizens packing rifles, semi-automatic weapons, handguns, and bows and arrows.

    The sidewalks were packed with people walking up and down Sherman Avenue, firearms proudly displayed for all to see.

    They carried guns, had them holstered around their hips and had them strapped across their backs.

    As it turns out, a group of Black Lives Matter protesters did in parts of the city briefly face off with the ‘protect Idaho’ group of armed locals, however, the scene stayed peaceful and without incident, dispersing relatively early into the evening as the police monitored the situation. 

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    Image source: Coer d’Alene/Post Falls Press

    Ultimately it appeared that in the downtown area it was only the armed patriot group which was out in force, unopposed. But the armed citizens patrols were in such large numbers they effectively took over the streets.

    It’s a scene that’s also played out in places like Texas, where smaller towns and rural areas have vowed to keep rioters far away, also as individual citizens practice ‘open carry’ in states where it’s permissible. 

    Armed citizen warns outsider in live stream (below):

    “I’m telling you… if you guys are thinking about coming to Coeur d’Alene to riot or loot, you better fuckin think again, because we ain’t havin it over here.”

    Everybody’s out and strapped… getting ready for the so-called invasion.”

    WATCH:

    But the trend suggests it could take a single ‘incident’ to spark a deadly encounter between such armed ‘citizens patrol’ groups and Antifa, BLM, or left-wing militants in locations across the nation.

    Meanwhile, in San Bernardino County, California an armed clash between rival demonstrators nearly erupted:

    Given that local and state police can barely handle the growing riots and random destruction as it is, such a scenario would send things escalating to far more violent proportions at flashpoints across the US. 

    During the early momentum of riots taking over Minnesota’s twin cities – ground zero for the initial George Floyd protests that began late last week – local and state police came under intense criticism as they retreated from riot-hit parts of the city, leaving business owners to watch helplessly as their stores and in some cases homes burned the ground.

    This and other scenes of lawlessness have resulted in a growing trend this week of armed ‘citizen patrols’ – adding to a potentially deadly combustible mix amid increasingly chaotic unpredictable scenarios on American city streets.

  • The Senate Should Focus On What The Flynn Transcripts Do Not Contain… Starting With A Crime
    The Senate Should Focus On What The Flynn Transcripts Do Not Contain… Starting With A Crime

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 22:45

    Authored by Jonathan Turley,

    Yesterday, the attorney hired by Judge Emmet Sullivan responded on his behalf to defend his controversial orders in the case to invite third parties to argue the merits of the motion to dismiss as well as raising his option to substitute his own criminal charge of perjury against Flynn.  The Justice Department responded with a 45-page filing to a three-judge appeals court panel.

    The attention will now focus on the appearance tomorrow of former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in the Senate.  For me, the most pertinent question is why this investigation continued past December and seemed to become to a search for a crime rather than the investigation of any crime or collusion with Russia.

    “Remember … Ambassador, you’re not talking to a diplomat, you’re talking to a soldier.”

    When President Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Michael Flynn, said those words to then-Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak, he also spoke to American intelligence agents listening in on the call. For three years, congressional Democrats have assured us Flynn’s calls to Kislyak were so disturbing that they set off alarms in the closing days of the Obama administration.

    They were right. The newly released transcripts of Flynn’s calls are deeply disturbing — not for their evidence of criminality or collusion but for the total absence of such evidence. The transcripts, declassified Friday, strongly support new investigations by both the Justice Department and by Congress, starting with next week’s Senate testimony by former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.

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    It turns out Flynn’s calls are not just predictable but even commendable at points. When the Obama administration hit the Russians with sanctions just before leaving office, the incoming Trump administration sought to avoid a major conflict at the very start of its term. Flynn asked the Russian to focus on “common enemies” in order to seek cooperation in the Middle East. The calls covered a variety of issues, including the sanctions.

    What was not discussed was any quid pro quo or anything untoward or unlawful. Flynn stated what was already known to be Trump policy in seeking a new path with Russia. Flynn did not offer to remove sanctions but, rather, encouraged the Russians to respond in a reciprocal, commensurate manner if they felt they had to respond.

    The calls, and Flynn’s identity, were leaked by as many as nine officials as the Obama administration left office — a serious federal crime, given their classified status. The most chilling aspect of the transcripts, however, is the lack of anything chilling in the calls themselves. Flynn is direct with Kislyak in trying to tone down the rhetoric and avoid retaliatory moves. He told Kislyak, “l am a very practical guy, and it’s about solutions. It’s about very practical solutions that we’re — that we need to come up with here.” Flynn said he understood the Russians might wish to retaliate for the Obama sanctions but encouraged them not to escalate the conflict just as the Trump administration took office.

    Kislyak later spoke with Flynn again and confirmed that Moscow agreed to tone down the conflict in the practical approach laid out by Flynn. The media has focused on Flynn’s later denial of discussing sanctions; the transcripts confirm he did indeed discuss sanctions. However, the Justice Department has not sought to dismiss criminal charges against him because he told the truth but because his statements did not meet a key element of materiality for the crime and were the result of troubling actions by high-ranking officials.

    The real question is why the FBI continued to investigate Flynn in the absence of any crime or evidence of collusion. In December 2016, investigators had found no evidence of any crime by Flynn. They wanted to shut down the investigation; they were overruled by superiors, including FBI special agent Peter Strzok, Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and Director James Comey. Strzok told the investigators to keep the case alive, and McCabe is described as “cutting off” another high-ranking official who questioned the basis for continuing to investigate Flynn. All three officials were later fired, and all three were later found by career officials to have engaged in serious misconduct as part of the Russia investigation.

    Recently disclosed information revealed that Comey and President Obama discussed using the Logan Act as a pretense for a criminal charge. The Logan Act criminalizes private negotiations with foreign governments; it is widely viewed as unconstitutional and has never been used successfully against any U.S. citizen since the earliest days of the Republic. Its use against the incoming national security adviser would have been absurd. Yet, that unconstitutional crime was the only crime Comey could come up with, long before there was a false statement by Flynn regarding his calls.

    Not until February 2017 did Comey circumvent long-standing protocols and order an interview with Flynn. Comey later bragged that he “probably wouldn’t have … gotten away with it” in other administrations, but he sent “a couple guys over” to question Flynn, who was settling into his new office as national security adviser. We learned recently that Strzok discussed trying to get Flynn to give false or misleading information in that interview, to enable a criminal charge, and that FBI lawyer Lisa Page suggested agents “just casually slip” in a reference to the criminal provision for lying and then get Flynn to slip up on the details.

    Flynn did slip up. While investigators said they were not convinced he intentionally lied, he gave a false statement. Later, special counsel Robert Mueller charged Flynn with that false statement, to pressure him into cooperating; Flynn fought the case into virtual bankruptcy but agreed to plead guilty when Mueller threatened to prosecute his son, too.

    The newly released transcripts reveal the lack of a foundation for that charge. Courts have held that the materiality requirement for such a charge requires that misstatements be linked to the particular “subject of the investigation.” The Justice Department found that the false statement in February 2017 was not material “to any viable counterintelligence investigation — or any investigation, for that matter — initiated by the FBI.” In other words, by that time, these FBI officials had no crime under investigation but were, instead, looking for a crime. The question is: Why?

    So the transcripts confirm there never was a scintilla of criminal conduct or evidence of collusion against Flynn before or during these calls. Indeed, there was no viable criminal investigation to speak of when Comey sent “a couple guys over” to entrap Flynn; they already had the transcripts and the knowledge that Flynn had done nothing wrong. Nevertheless, facing the release of these transcripts, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) bizarrely maintained that “Flynn posed a severe counterintelligence risk” because he could be blackmailed over his false statement.

    Putting aside the lack of prior evidence of criminality, Schiff ignores that there were transcripts to prevent such blackmail. Indeed, in the interview, Flynn indicated he assumed there was a transcript, and leaked media reports indicated that various officials were familiar with the content of the calls. The key to blackmail would have been for the Russians to have information that others did not have.

    Ironically, in his calls with Kislyak, Flynn expressly sought a more frank, honest relationship with Russia. He told Kislyak “we have to stop talking past each other on — so that means that we have to understand exactly what it is that we want to try to achieve, okay?” That is a question that should now be directed at the FBI, to understand what it was trying to achieve by continuing an investigation long after it ran out of crimes to investigate.

  • Pentagon Says 1,600 Army Troops Have Moved To Joint Base Andrews Outside Washington DC To "Support Civil Authorities"
    Pentagon Says 1,600 Army Troops Have Moved To Joint Base Andrews Outside Washington DC To “Support Civil Authorities”

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 22:30

    One day after Trump warned he may call in the army if the situation in Washington D.C. does not normalize, sparking outrage in liberal circles who called this a de facto preparation for civil war, moments ago Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said that 1,600 active duty troops have moved from Fort Bragg and Fort Drum, to the National Capitol region, “but are not in Washington” – technically they are now located in Joint Base Andrews, which is just on the outskirts of Washington DC).

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    The Pentagon also said that the troops are on “heightened alert status but remain under Title X authority and are not participating in defense support to civil authority operations”, at least not yet.

    The full Pentagon statement is below.

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  • Two Doctors Explain Why COVID-19 Was Likely Lab Experiment
    Two Doctors Explain Why COVID-19 Was Likely Lab Experiment

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 22:05

    Authored by Jonathan Latham, PhD and Allison Wilson, PhD via Independent Science News  (emphasis ours)

    The Case Is Building That COVID-19 Had a Lab Origin

    If the public has learned a lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic it is that science does not generate certainty. Do homemade face masks work? What is the death rate of COVID-19? How accurate are the tests? How many people have no symptoms? And so on. Practically the lone undisputed assertion made so far is that all the nearest known genetic relatives of its cause, the Sars-CoV-2 virus, are found in horseshoe bats (Zhou et al., 2020). Therefore, the likely viral reservoir was a bat.

    However, most of these ancestor-like bat coronaviruses cannot infect humans (Ge et al., 2013). In consequence, from its beginning, a key question hanging over the pandemic has been: How did a bat RNA virus evolve into a human pathogen that is both virulent and deadly?

    The answer almost universally seized upon is that there was an intermediate species. Some animal, perhaps a snake, perhaps a palm civet, perhaps a pangolin, served as a temporary host. This bridging animal would probably have had an ACE2 cellular receptor (the molecule which allows cellular entry of the virus) intermediate in protein sequence (or at least structure) between the bat and the human one (Wan et al., 2020).

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    In the press and in the scientific literature, scenarios by which this natural zoonotic transfer might have occurred have been endlessly mulled. Most were fuelled by early findings that many of the earliest COVID-19 cases seem to have occurred in and around Wuhan’s Huanan live animal market. [The latest data are that 14 of the 41 earliest cases, including the first, had no connection to the animal market (Huang et al. 2020)].

    Since the two previous coronavirus near-pandemics of SARS (2002-3) and MERS (2012) both probably came from bats and both are thought (but not proven) to have transitioned to humans via intermediate animals (civets and dromedaries respectively), a natural zoonotic pathway is a reasonable first assumption (Andersen et al., 2020).

    The idea, as it applied to the original (2002) SARS outbreak, is that the original bat virus infected a civet. The virus then evolved briefly in this animal species, but not enough to cause a civet pandemic, and then was picked up by a human before it died out in civets. In this first human (patient zero) the virus survived, perhaps only barely, but was passed on, marking the first case of human to human transmission. As it was successively passed on in its first few human hosts the virus rapidly evolved, adapting to better infect its new hosts. After a few such tentative transmissions the pandemic proper began.

    Perhaps this scenario is approximately how the current COVID-19 pandemic began.

    But one other troubling possibility must be dispensed with. It follows from the fact that the epicentre city, Wuhan (pop. 11 million), happens to be the global epicentre of bat coronavirus research (e.g. Hu et al., 2017).

    Prompted by this proximity, various researchers and news media, prominently the Washington Post, and with much more data Newsweek, have drawn up a prima facie case that a laboratory origin is a strong possibility (Zhan et al., 2020; Piplani et al., 2020). That is, one of the two labs in Wuhan that has worked on coronaviruses accidentally let a natural virus escape; or, the lab was genetically engineering (or otherwise manipulating) a Sars-CoV-2-like virus which then escaped.

    Unfortunately, in the US at least, the question of the pandemic’s origin has become a political football; either an opportunity for Sinophobia or a partisan “blame game“.

    But the potential of a catastrophic lab release is not a game and systemic problems of competence and opacity are certainly not limited to China (Lipsitch, 2018). The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is currently constructing a new and expanded national Bio and Agro-defense facility in Manhattan, Kansas. DHS has estimated that the 50-year risk (defined as having an economic impact of $9-50 billion) of a release from its lab at 70%.

    When a National Research Council committee inspected these DHS estimates they concluded “The committee finds that the risks and costs could well be significantly higher than that“.

    A subsequent committee report (NAP, 2012) continued:

    the committee was instructed to judge the adequacy and validity of the uSSRA [updated Site-Specific Risk Assessment]. The committee has identified serious concerns about (1) the misapplication of methods used to assess risk, (2) the failure to make clear whether and how the evidence used to support risk assessment assumptions had been thoroughly reviewed and adequately evaluated, (3) the limited breadth of literature cited and the misinterpretation of some of the significant supporting literature, (4) the failure to explain the criteria used to select assumptions when supporting literature is conflicting, (5) the failure to consider important risk pathways, and (6) the inadequate treatment of uncertainty. Those deficiencies are not equally problematic, but they occur with sufficient frequency to raise doubts about the adequacy and validity of the risk results presented. In most instances (e.g., operational activities at the NBAF), the identified problems lead to an underestimation of risk; in other instances (e.g., catastrophic natural hazards), the risks may be overestimated. As a result, the committee concludes that the uSSRA is technically inadequate in critical respects and is an insufficient basis on which to judge the risks associated with the proposed NBAF in Manhattan, Kansas.

    China, meanwhile, having opened its first in Wuhan in 2018, is planning to roll out a national network of BSL-4 labs (Zhiming, 2019). Like many other countries, it is investing significantly in disease surveillance and collection of viruses from wild animal populations and in high-risk recombinant virus research with Potential Pandemic Pathogens (PPPs).

    On May 4th, nations and global philanthropies, meeting in Brussels, committed $7.4 billion to future pandemic preparedness. But the question hanging over all such investments is this: the remit of the Wuhan lab at the centre of the accidental release claims is pandemic preparedness. If the COVID-19 pandemic began there then we need to radically rethink current ideas for pandemic preparation globally. Many researchers already believe we should, for the sake of both safety and effectiveness (Lipsitch and Galvani, 2014; Weiss et al., 2015; Lipsitch, 2018). The worst possible outcome would be for those donated billions to accelerate the arrival of the next pandemic.

    Historical lab releases, a brief history

    An accidental lab release is not merely a theoretical possibility. In 1977 a laboratory in Russia (or possibly China), most likely while developing a flu vaccine, accidentally released the extinct H1N1 influenza virus (Nakajima et al., 1978). H1N1 went on to become a global pandemic virus. A large proportion of the global population became infected. In this case, deaths were few because the population aged over 20 yrs old had historic immunity to the virus. This episode is not widely known because only recently has this conclusion been formally acknowledged in the scientific literature and the virology community has been reluctant to discuss such incidents (Zimmer and Burke, 2009; Wertheim, 2010). Still, laboratory pathogen escapes leading to human and animal deaths (e.g. smallpox in Britain; equine encephalitis in South America) are common enough that they ought to be much better known (summarised in Furmanski, 2014). Only rarely have these broken out into actual pandemics on the scale of H1N1, which, incidentally, broke out again in 2009/2010 as “Swine flu” causing 3,000 or so deaths on that occasion (Duggal et al., 2016).

    Many scientists have warned that experiments with PPPs, like the smallpox and Ebola and influenza viruses, are inherently dangerous and should be subject to strict limits and oversight (Lipsitch and Galvani, 2014; Klotz and Sylvester, 2014). Even in the limited case of SARS-like coronaviruses, since the quelling of the original SARS outbreak in 2003, there have been six documented SARS disease outbreaks originating from research laboratories, including four in China. These outbreaks caused 13 individual infections and one death (Furmanski, 2014). In response to such concerns the US banned certain classes of experiments, called gain of function (GOF) experiments, with PPPs in 2014, but the ban (actually a funding moratoriumactually a funding moratorium) was lifted in 2017.

    For these reasons, and also to ensure the effectiveness of future pandemic preparedness efforts­, it is a matter of vital international importance to establish whether the laboratory escape hypothesis has credible evidence to support it. This must be done regardless of the problem–in the US–of toxic partisan politics and nationalism.

    The COVID-19 Wuhan lab escape thesis

    The essence of the lab escape theory is that Wuhan is the site of the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), China’s first and only Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4) facility. (BSL-4 is the highest pathogen security level). The WIV, which added a BSL-4 lab only in 2018, has been collecting large numbers of coronaviruses from bat samples ever since the original SARS outbreak of 2002-2003; including collecting more in 2016 (Hu, et al., 2017; Zhou et al., 2018).

    Led by researcher Zheng-Li Shi, WIV scientists have also published experiments in which live bat coronaviruses were introduced into human cells (Hu et al., 2017). Moreover, according to an April 14 article in the Washington Post, US Embassy staff visited the WIV in 2018 and “had grave safety concerns” about biosecurity there. The WIV is just eight miles from the Huanan live animal market that was initially thought to be the site of origin of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Wuhan is also home to a lab called the Wuhan Centers for Disease Prevention and Control (WCDPC). It is a BSL-2 lab that is just 250 metres away from the Huanan market. Bat coronaviruses have in the past been kept at the Wuhan WCDPC lab.

    Thus the lab escape theory is that researchers from one or both of these labs may have picked up a Sars-CoV-2-like bat coronavirus on one of their many collecting (aka ‘”virus surveillance”) trips. Or, alternatively, a virus they were studying, passaging, engineering, or otherwise manipulating, escaped.

    Scientific assessments of the lab escape theory

    On April 17 the Australian Science Media Centre asked four Australian virologists: “Did COVID-19 come from a lab in Wuhan?

    Three (Edward Holmes, Nigel McMillan and Hassan Vally) dismissed the lab escape suggestion and Vally simply labeled it, without elaboration, a “conspiracy”.

    The fourth virologist interviewed was Nikolai Petrovsky of Flinders University. Petrovsky first addressed the question of whether the natural zoonosis pathway was viable. He told the Media Centre:

    no natural virus matching to COVID-19 has been found in nature despite an intensive search to find its origins.”

    That is to say, the idea of an animal intermediate is speculation. Indeed, no credible viral or animal host intermediaries, either in the form of a confirmed animal host or a plausible virus intermediate, has to-date emerged to explain the natural zoonotic transfer of Sars-CoV-2 to humans (e.g. Zhan et al., 2020).

    In addition to Petrovsky’s point, there are two further difficulties with the natural zoonotic transfer thesis (apart from the weak epidemiological association between early cases and the Huanan “wet” market).

    The first is that researchers from the Wuhan lab travelled to caves in Yunnan (1,500 Km away) to find horseshoe bats containing SARS-like coronaviruses. To-date, the closest living relative of Sars-CoV-2 yet found comes from Yunnan (Ge et al., 2016). Why would an outbreak of a bat virus therefore occur in Wuhan?

    Moreover, China has a population of 1.3 billion. If spillover from the wildlife trade was the explanation, then, other things being equal, the probability of a pandemic starting in Wuhan (pop. 11 million) is less than 1%.

    Zheng-Li Shi, the head of bat coronavirus research at WIV, told Scientific American as much:

    I had never expected this kind of thing to happen in Wuhan, in central China.” Her studies had shown that the southern, subtropical provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan have the greatest risk of coronaviruses jumping to humans from animals—particularly bats, a known reservoir. If coronaviruses were the culprit, she remembers thinking, “Could they have come from our lab?”

    Wuhan, in short, is a rather unlikely epicentre for a natural zoonotic transfer. In contrast, to suspect that Sars-CoV-2 might have come from the WIV is both reasonable and obvious.

    Was Sars-CoV-2 created in a lab?

    In his statement, Petrovsky goes on to describe the kind of experiment that, in principle, if done in a lab, would obtain the same result as the hypothesised natural zoonotic transfer–rapid adaptation of a bat coronavirus to a human host.

    Take a bat coronavirus that is not infectious to humans, and force its selection by culturing it with cells that express human ACE2 receptor, such cells having been created many years ago to culture SARS coronaviruses and you can force the bat virus to adapt to infect human cells via mutations in its spike protein, which would have the effect of increasing the strength of its binding to human ACE2, and inevitably reducing the strength of its binding to bat ACE2.

    Viruses in prolonged culture will also develop other random mutations that do not affect its function. The result of these experiments is a virus that is highly virulent in humans but is sufficiently different that it no longer resembles the original bat virus. Because the mutations are acquired randomly by selection there is no signature of a human gene jockey, but this is clearly a virus still created by human intervention.

    In other words, Petrovsky believes that current experimental methods could have led to an altered virus that escaped.

    Passaging, GOF research, and lab escapes

    The experiment mentioned by Petrovsky represents a class of experiments called passaging. Passaging is the placing of a live virus into an animal or cell culture to which it is not adapted and then, before the virus dies out, transferring it to another animal or cell of the same type. Passaging is often done iteratively. The theory is that the virus will rapidly evolve (since viruses have high mutation rates) and become adapted to the new animal or cell type. Passaging a virus, by allowing it to become adapted to its new situation, creates a new pathogen.

    The most famous such experiment was conducted in the lab of Dutch researcher Ron Fouchier. Fouchier took an avian influenza virus (H5N1) that did not infect ferrets (or other mammals) and serially passaged it in ferrets. The intention of the experiment was specifically to evolve a PPP. After ten passages the researchers found that the virus had indeed evolved, to not only infect ferrets but to transmit to others in neighbouring cages (Herfst et al., 2012). They had created an airborne ferret virus, a Potential Pandemic Pathogen, and a storm in the international scientific community.

    The second class of experiments that have frequently been the recipients of criticism are GOF experiments. In GOF research, a novel virus is deliberately created, either by in vitro mutation or by cutting and pasting together two (or more) viruses. The intention of such reconfigurations is to make viruses more infectious by adding new functions such as increased infectivity or pathogenicity. These novel viruses are then experimented on, either in cell cultures or in whole animals. These are the class of experiments banned in the US from 2014 to 2017.

    Some researchers have even combined GOF and passaging experiments by using recombinant viruses in passaging experiments (e.g. Sheahan et al., 2008).

    Such experiments all require recombinant DNA techniques and animal or cell culture experiments. But the very simplest hypothesis of how Sars-CoV-2 might have been caused by research is simply to suppose that a researcher from the WIV or the WCDCP became infected during a collecting expedition and passed their bat virus on to their colleagues or family. The natural virus then evolved, in these early cases, into Sars-CoV-2. For this reason, even collecting trips have their critics. Epidemiologist Richard Ebright called them “the definition of insanity“. Handling animals and samples exposes collectors to multiple pathogens and returning to their labs then brings those pathogens back to densely crowded locations.

    Was the WIV doing experiments that might release PPPs?

    Since 2004, shortly after the original SARS outbreak, researchers from the WIV have been collecting bat coronaviruses in an intensive search for SARS-like pathogens (Li et al., 2005). Since the original collecting trip, many more have been conducted (Ge et al., 2013; Ge et al., 2016; Hu et al., 2017; Zhou et al., 2018).

    Petrovsky does not mention it but Zheng-Li Shi’s group at the WIV has already performed experiments very similar to those he describes, using those collected viruses. In 2013 the Shi lab reported isolating an infectious clone of a bat coronavirus that they called WIV-1 (Ge et al., 2013). WIV-1 was obtained by introducing a bat coronavirus into monkey cells, passaging it, and then testing its infectivity in human (HeLa) cell lines engineered to express the human ACE2 receptor (Ge et al., 2013).

    In 2014, just before the US GOF research ban went into effect, Zheng-Li Shi of WIV co-authored a paper with the lab of Ralph Baric in North Carolina that performed GOF research on bat coronaviruses (Menachery et al., 2015).

    In this particular set of experiments the researchers combined “the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone” into a single engineered live virus. The spike was supplied by the Shi lab. They put this bat/human/mouse virus into cultured human airway cells and also into live mice. The researchers observed “notable pathogenesis” in the infected mice (Menachery et al. 2015). The mouse-adapted part of this virus comes from a 2007 experiment in which the Baric lab created a virus called rMA15 through passaging (Roberts et al., 2007). This rMA15 was “highly virulent and lethal” to the mice. According to this paper, mice succumbed to “overwhelming viral infection”.

    In 2017, again with the intent of identifying bat viruses with ACE2 binding capabilities, the Shi lab at WIV reported successfully infecting human (HeLa) cell lines engineered to express the human ACE2 receptor with four different bat coronaviruses. Two of these were lab-made recombinant (chimaeric) bat viruses. Both the wild and the recombinant viruses were briefly passaged in monkey cells (Hu et al., 2017).

    Together, what these papers show is that: 1) The Shi lab collected numerous bat samples with an emphasis on collecting SARS-like coronavirus strains, 2) they cultured live viruses and conducted passaging experiments on them, 3) members of Zheng-Li Shi’s laboratory participated in GOF experiments carried out in North Carolina on bat coronaviruses, 4) the Shi laboratory produced recombinant bat coronaviruses and placed these in human cells and monkey cells. All these experiments were conducted in cells containing human or monkey ACE2 receptors.

    The overarching purpose of such work was to see whether an enhanced pathogen could emerge from the wild by creating one in the lab. (For a very informative technical summary of WIV research into bat coronaviruses and that of their collaborators we recommend this post, written by biotech entrepreneur Yuri Deigin).

    It also seems that the Shi lab at WIV intended to do more of such research. In 2013 and again in 2017 Zheng-Li Shi (with the assistance of a non-profit called the EcoHealth Alliance) obtained a grant from the US National Institutes of Health (NIH). The most recent such grant proposed that:

    host range (i.e. emergence potential) will be tested experimentally using reverse genetics, pseudovirus and receptor binding assays, and virus infection experiments across a range of cell cultures from different species and humanized mice” (NIH project #5R01Al110964-04).

    It is hard to overemphasize that the central logic of this grant was to test the pandemic potential of SARS-related bat coronaviruses by making ones with pandemic potential, either through genetic engineering or passaging, or both.

    Apart from descriptions in their publications we do not yet know exactly which viruses the WIV was experimenting with but it is certainly intriguing that numerous publications since Sars-CoV-2 first appeared have puzzled over the fact that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein binds with exceptionally high affinity to the human ACE2 receptor “at least ten times more tightly” than the original SARS (Zhou et al., 2020; Wrapp et al., 2020; Wan et al., 2020; Walls et al., 2020; Letko et al., 2020).

    This affinity is all the more remarkable because of the relative lack of fit in modelling studies of the SARS-CoV-2 spike to other species, including the postulated intermediates like snakes, civets and pangolins (Piplani et al., 2020). In this preprint these modellers concluded “This indicates that SARS-CoV-2 is a highly adapted human pathogen”.

    Given the research and collection history of the Shi lab at WIV it is therefore entirely plausible that a bat SARS-like cornavirus ancestor of Sars-CoV-2 was trained up on the human ACE2 receptor by passaging it in cells expressing that receptor.

    How do viruses escape from high security laboratories?

    Pathogen lab escapes take various forms. According to the US Government Accountability Office, a US defense Department laboratory once “inadvertently sent live Bacillus anthracis, the bacterium that causes anthrax, to almost 200 laboratories worldwide over the course of 12 years. The laboratory believed that the samples had been inactivated.” In 2007, Britain experienced a foot and mouth disease outbreak. Its’ origin was a malfunctioning waste disposal system of a BSL-4 laboratory leaking into a stream from which neighbouring cows drank. The disposal system had not been properly maintained (Furmanski, 2014). In 2004 an outbreak of SARS originating from the National Institute of Virology (NIV) in Beijing, China, began, again, with the inadequate inactivation of a viral sample that was then distributed to non-secure parts of the building (Weiss et al., 2015).

    Writing for the Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists in February 2019, Lynn Klotz concluded that human error was behind most laboratory incidents causing exposures to pathogens in US high security laboratories. While equipment failure was also a factor, of the 749 incidents reported to the US Federal Select Agent Programme between 2009-2015, Klotz concluded that 79% resulted from human error.

    But arguably the biggest worry is incidents that go entirely unreported because escape of the pathogen goes undetected. It is truly alarming that a significant number of pathogen escape events were uncovered only because investigators were in the process of examining a completely different incident (Furmanski, 2014). Such discoveries represent strong evidence that pathogen escapes are under-reported and that important lessons still need to be learned (Weiss et al., 2015).

    The safety record of the WIV

    The final important data point is the biosafety history of the WIV. The WIV was built in 2015 and became a commissioned BSL-4 lab in 2018. According to Josh Rogin of the Washington Post, US embassy officials visited the WIV in 2018. They subsequently warned their superiors in Washington of a “serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory”.

    And according to VOA News, a year before the outbreak, “a security review conducted by a Chinese national team found the lab did not meet national standards in five categories.”

    Credible reports from within China also question lab biosafety and its management. In 2019, Yuan Zhiming, biosecurity specialist at the WIV, cited the “challenges” of biosafety in China. According to Zhiming: “several high-level BSLs have insufficient operational funds for routine yet vital processes” and “Currently, most laboratories lack specialized biosafety managers and engineers.” He recommends that “We should promptly revise the existing regulations, guidelines, norms, and standards of biosafety and biosecurity”. Nevertheless, he also notes that China intends to soon build “5-7” more BSL-4 laboratories (Zhiming, 2019).

    And in February 2020, Scientific American interviewed Zheng-Li Shi. Accompanying the interview was a photograph of her releasing a captured bat. In the photo she is wearing a casual pink unzipped top layer, thin gloves, and no face mask or other protection. Yet this is the same researcher whose talks give “chilling” warnings about the dire risks of human contact with bats.

    All of which tends to confirm the original State Department assessment. As one anonymous “senior administration official” told Rogin:

    “The idea that it was just a totally natural occurrence is circumstantial. The evidence it leaked from a lab is circumstantial. Right now, the ledger on the side of it leaking from the lab is packed with bullet points and there’s almost nothing on the other side.”

    The leading hypothesis is a lab outbreak

    For all these reasons, a lab escape is by far the leading hypothesis to explain the origins of Sars-CoV-2 and the COVID-19 pandemic. The sheer proximity of the WIV and WCDCP labs to the outbreak and the nature of their work represents evidence that can hardly be ignored. The long international history of lab escapes and the biosafety concerns from all directions about the labs in Wuhan greatly strengthen the case. Especially since evidence for the alternative hypothesis, in the form of a link to wild animal exposure or the wildlife trade, remains extremely weak, being based primarily on analogy with SARS one (Bell et al,. 2004; Andersen et al., 2020).

    Nevertheless, on April 16th Peter Daszak, who is the President of the EcoHealth Alliance, told Democracy Now! in a lengthy interview that the lab escape thesis was “Pure baloney”. He told listeners:

    “There was no viral isolate in the lab. There was no cultured virus that’s anything related to SARS coronavirus 2. So it’s just not possible.”

    Daszak made very similar claims on CNN’s Sixty Minutes: “There is zero evidence that this virus came out of a lab in China.” Instead, Daszak encouraged viewers to blame “hunting and eating wildlife”.

    Daszak’s certainty is highly problematic on several counts. The closest related known coronaviruses to Sars-CoV-2 are to be found at the WIV so a lot depends on what he means by “related to”. But it is also dishonest in the sense that Daszak must know that culturing in the lab is not the only way that WIV researchers could have caused an outbreak. Third, and this is not Daszak’s fault, the media are asking the right question to the wrong person.

    As alluded to above, Daszak is the named principal investigator on multiple US grants that went to the Shi lab at WIV. He is also a co-author on numerous papers with Zheng-Li Shi, including the 2013 Nature paper announcing the isolation of coronavirus WIV-1 through passaging (Ge et al., 2013). One of his co-authorships is on the collecting paper in which his WIV colleagues placed the four fully functional bat coronaviruses into human cells containing the ACE2 receptor (Hu et al. 2017). That is, Daszak and Shi together are collaborators and co-responsible for most of the published high-risk collecting and experimentation at the WIV.

    An investigation is needed, but who will do it?

    If the Shi lab has anything to hide, it is not only the Chinese Government that will be reluctant to see an impartial investigation proceed. Much of the work was funded by the US taxpayer, channeled there by Peter Daszak and the EcoHealth Alliance. Virtually every credible international organisation that might in principle carry out such an investigation, the WHO, the US CDC, the FAO, the US NIH, including the Gates Foundation, is either an advisor to, or a partner of, the EcoHealth Alliance. If the Sars-CoV-2 outbreak originated from the bat coronavirus work at the WIV then just about every major institution in the global public health community is implicated.

    But to solve many of these questions does not necessarily require an expensive investigation. It would probably be enough to inspect the lab notebooks of WIV researchers. All research scientists keep detailed notes, for intellectual property and other reasons, but especially in BSL-4 labs. As Yuan Zhiming told Nature magazine in an article marking the opening of the facility in Wuhan: “We tell them [staff] the most important thing is that they report what they have or haven’t done.”

    Meticulous lab records plus staff health records and incident reports of accidents and near-accidents are all essential components (or should be) of BSL work. Their main purpose is to enable the tracking of actual incidents. Much speculation could be ended with the public release of that information. But the WIV has not provided it.

    This is puzzling since the Chinese government has a very strong incentive to produce those records. Complete transparency would potentially dispel the gales of blame coming its way; especially on the question of whether Sars-CoV-2 has an engineered or passaged origin. If Zheng-Li Shi and Peter Daszak are correct that nothing similar to Sars-CoV-2 was being studied there, then those notebooks should definitively exonerate the lab from having knowingly made an Actual Pandemic Pathogen.

    Given the simplicity and utility of this step this lack of transparency suggests that there is something to hide. If so, it must be important. But then the question is: What?

    A thorough investigation of the WIV and its bat coronavirus research is an important first step. But the true questions are not the specific mishaps and dissemblings of Drs Shi or Daszak, nor of the WIV, nor even of the Chinese government.

    Rather, the bigger question concerns the current philosophy of pandemic prediction and prevention. Deep enquiries should be made about the overarching wisdom of plucking and counting viruses from the wild and then performing dangerous ‘what if’ recombinant research in high tech but fallible biosafety labs. This is a reductionistic approach, we also note, that has so far failed to predict pandemics and may never do so.

    If this article was useful to you please consider sharing it with your networks.

    Jonathan R. Latham PhD is co-founder and Executive Director of the Bioscience Resource Project and the Editor of Independent Science News. He holds a PhD in Virology and was a postdoctoral research associate in the University of Wisconsin Department of Genetics.

    Allison K. Wilson, PhD is co-founder and Science Director of the the Bioscience Resource Project; Editor of the Bioscience Resource Project website; Assistant Editor of Independent Science News; and a contributor to the Poison Papers project. She holds a BA in Biology from Cornell University, a doctorate in Molecular Biology and Genetics from Indiana University, Bloomington, and was formerly a postdoctoral research associate at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle and the John Innes Centre, Norwich, UK.

  • GLJ Research: This Is Shaping Up As One Of The Worst Quarters In Tesla History
    GLJ Research: This Is Shaping Up As One Of The Worst Quarters In Tesla History

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 21:54

    Submitted by Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research

    After rising 449% m/m in China in March following China’s COVID-19 lockdowns ending, TSLA’s sales of cars in China in April fell -34.8% m/m (this came as a disappointment to many TSLA bulls as the competition gained materially on TSLA in the moth of April – link).

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    Aggregate EU Registrations: For the six EU countries that have reported May 2020 registrations, TSLA saw numbers for all cars “sold” fall -13.9% m/m and -67.8% y/y; through the first two months combined of 2Q20 (i.e., 2Q20 QTD) in these six EU countries, registrations are down -22.8% q/q and -67.8% y/y.

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    Aggregate EU EV Market Share: TSLA’s aggregated EU market share fell from 37.2% in 4Q19 to 25.3% in 1Q20.

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    NO + NL + SP Registrations: 2Q20 QTD, TSLA’s market share is down to 3.8%, vs. 7.7% in 1Q20 and 35.6% in 4Q19. Stated differently, TSLA has lost significant market share in the three key EU markets it… once… dominated.

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    NO + NL + SP Registrations (more detailed look): Through the first 63 days of 2Q20, sales in these three countries, combined, are down -34.7% q/q and -68.8% y/y.

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    Model 3 Tracker: Using TroyTeslike’s Model 3 tracker, through the first 63 days of 2Q20, Model 3 configurations are down -87.3% q/q and -86.7% y/y.

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    Model Y Tracker: Using TroyTeslike’s Model Y tracker, through the first 63 days of 2Q20, deliveries are running at 69 cars. By comparison, in the first full month the Model 3 tracker was collecting data on Model 3 sales, it reached 709 cars by quarter’s end. This may be why TSLA, recently, drastically reduced the lead times from when you order a Model Y in the USA to when you get it – i.e., to 4-8 weeks vs. 8-12 weeks prior (link) – this followed the sharp price cuts taken by TSLA last week due to weaker-than-expected demand globally.

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    New York State Data: While the data does not look bad, it’s important to remember that in NY State, registrations lag sales. So the April data below is from sales made in March. This means we won’t see the April/May COVID-19 sales impact in NYS until May/June data is out (i.e., later this week).

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    Colorado, USA: In Colorado, USA, through the 8th week of 2Q20, sales are trending down -22.3% q/q and -76.1% y/y.

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    RORO Boat Data: Looking at days boats loaded for TSLA cars, volumes are down -82.2% q/q and -78.1% y/y. The first boat of 2Q20 was sent to S. Korea; there is another boat that will arrive in Europe with roughly 3-4K cars (by our est.) before the end of 2Q20; finally, there is another RORO boat that is still moored, but we est. will arrive in Asia before the end of 2Q20 (it will be close, however).

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    CONCLUSION: Observing the publicly available data, and also observing a recent initiation on TSLA, in which the headline “Tesla (ticker: TSLA) is on the cusp of replicating its success in the U.S. EV market to potentially larger markets in China and Europe” (link) was published on a number of widely-followed financial media sites, as analysts are forced to revert back to TSLA’s actual fundamentals (which remain publicly available for anyone who wants it) – which include market share losses in both the EU and China – sentiment could be set to shift lower.

  • Pandemic, Economic Crash, Social Unrest, And Now Four Asteroids?
    Pandemic, Economic Crash, Social Unrest, And Now Four Asteroids?

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 21:45

    This year has been nothing short of astonishing. In the last five months, the US has been inundated with a virus pandemic, triggering an economic crash and 40 million unemployed, and now worsening social unrest in major metros. But what’s happening on the ground might be the least of our worries on Tuesday, as four asteroids are about to pass the planet.

    NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has detected “four near-Earth objects that will fly past” the planet on Tuesday, reported International Business Times.

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    h/t The Sun

    CNEOS’ data showed the first asteroid, identified as 2020 KK7, measures about 108 feet wide and traveling at 34,000 mph, will pass the planet on Tuesday at a distance of 0.00343 astronomical units or approximately 319,000 miles. To put this in perspective, this means the giant space rock will pass Earth at a distance that is about from here to the Moon. 

    The second asteroid to pass Earth is called 2020 KD4. The rock measures about 115 feet wide and is traveling at 12,000 mph, will pass the planet at a distance of about 0.02680 astronomical units or around 2.5 million miles away. 

    The third asteroid to pass Earth is called 2020 KF, which has an estimated diameter of 144 feet, is the largest asteroid to approach the planet, and is traveling at about 24,000 mph. It’s expected to pass the planet at a distance of about 0.03102 astronomical units or 2.9 million miles.

    And the fourth asteroid to pass Earth on Tuesday is called 2020 KJ1, has an estimated diameter of about 105 feet, and is moving at 11,000 mph, will pass the planet at about 0.01403 astronomical units or 1.3 million miles.

    Amid the social-economic collapse of America, political commentator Katie Hopkins’ prayers could be answered… 

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  • Former Antifa Member Admits Group's Acts Are "Very Definition Of Domestic Terrorism"
    Former Antifa Member Admits Group’s Acts Are “Very Definition Of Domestic Terrorism”

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 21:25

    Authored by Jon Street via Campus Reform,

    Former Antifa member Gabriel Nadales praised President Donald Trump for his tweet saying that he intends to designate Antifa a domestic terror organization after several nights of violent riots and looting in dozens of major American cities. 

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    Nadales, who is an employee of Campus Reform‘s parent organization,  the Leadership Institute, joined Stuart Varney on Fox Business Network on Monday to discuss the recent riots that arose out of protests to the killing of George Floyd, an unarmed black man killed while in Minneapolis police custody.

    Nadales was among the first to call for Antifa to be labeled a terror organization in 2019. Trump said at the time he was considering labeling the group a terror organization. Now, it appears the president has made up his mind. 

    “The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization,” Trump tweeted Sunday. 

    Nadales reacted to the news Monday, telling Varney, “Antifa’s acts are the very definition of domestic terrorism.” 

    “If you look at some of the violence, it’s being instigated by anarchists and Antifa activists,” Nadales, the former Antifa member said, “not by the peaceful protesters who are rightfully angered by what happened.”

    WATCH:

  • 77-Year-Old Retired Police Captain Murdered By Looters
    77-Year-Old Retired Police Captain Murdered By Looters

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 21:05

    A retired St. Louis City police captain was shot and killed overnight trying to stop looters outside a North City pawn shop, according to KMOV4.

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    77-year-old David Dorn was found at approximately 2:30 a.m. Tuesday on the 4100 block of Martin Luther King Dr.

    He was murdered by looters at a pawnshop. He was the type of brother that would’ve given his life to save them if he had to. Violence is not the answer, whether it’s a citizen or officer,” wrote the St. Louis Ethical Society of Police of Dorn, whose wife is a sergeant with the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department.

    St. Louis Police Chief John Hayden said Dorn was murdered during a looting while “exercising law enforcement training.”

    “David Dorn was a fine captain, many of us young officers looked up to him,” Chief Hayden said.

    Chief Hayden said officers will wear their mourning badges in response to Dorn’s death. –KMOV4

    Graphic:

    According to the report, Dorn was with the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department for 38 years before becoming the police chief in Moline Acres. He joined the police academy in November 1969, graduating in May 1970. After his retirement he joined Patrol Support in October 2007. 

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    Due to his history in law enforcement, Dorn helped out the owners of Lee’s Pawn and Jewelry – checking on it when the alarm would go off, which is what he was doing Tuesday when he was shot and killed.

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    CrimeStoppers is offering a $10,000 reward for any information leading to an arrest in the case (866-371-8477).

    Meanwhile, about the only mainstream coverage given to Dorn’s death has come from Fox News’ Tucker Carlson.

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  • This Treasury Official Is Running The Bailout And It's Been Great For His Family…
    This Treasury Official Is Running The Bailout And It’s Been Great For His Family…

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 20:45

    Authored by Justin Elliott, Lydia DePillis and Robert Faturechi via ProPublica.org,

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have become the public faces of the $3 trillion federal coronavirus bailout. Behind the scenes, however, the Treasury’s responsibilities have fallen largely to the 42-year-old deputy secretary, Justin Muzinich.

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    A major beneficiary of that bailout so far: Muzinich & Co., the asset manager founded by his father where Justin served as president before joining the administration. He reported owning a stake worth at least $60 million when he entered government in 2017.

    Today, Muzinich retains financial ties to the firm through an opaque transaction in which he transferred his shares in the privately held company to his father. Ethics experts say the arrangement is troubling because his father received the shares for no money up front, and it appears possible that Muzinich can simply get his stake back after leaving government.

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    Justin Muzinich, deputy Treasury secretary, in 2019. (Wolfgang Kumm/Picture Alliance via Getty Images)

    When lockdowns crippled the economy in March, the Treasury and the Fed launched an unprecedented effort to buy up corporate debt to avert a freeze in lending at the exact moment businesses needed to borrow to keep running. That effort has succeeded, at least temporarily, with credit continuing to flow to companies over the last several weeks. This policy also allowed those who were heavily invested in corporate loans to recoup huge losses.

    Muzinich & Co. has long specialized in precisely this market, managing approximately $38 billion of clients’ money, including in riskier instruments known as junk, or high-yield, bonds. Since the Fed and the Treasury’s actions in late March, the bond market has roared back. Muzinich & Co. has reversed billions in losses, according to a review of its holdings, with 28 of the 29 funds tracked by the investor research service Morningstar Direct rising in that period. The firm doesn’t publicly detail all of its holdings, so a precise figure can’t be calculated.

    The Treasury is understaffed, and Muzinich was overseeing two-thirds of the department before the crisis hit. He spent his first year as the Trump administration’s point man on its only major legislative achievement, the landmark $1.9 trillion tax cut that mainly benefited the wealthy and corporations.

    As the markets panicked about the economic impact of the coronavirus, Muzinich’s responsibilities expanded. The Treasury worked with the Fed on the emergency lending programs, and the agency has ultimate power to sign off. Muzinich was personally involved in crafting the programs, including the effort to bail out the junk bond market, The Wall Street Journal reported in April. He communicates with Fed officials daily by phone, email or text, the paper said.

    That effort has many skeptics. The Fed has never bought corporate debt in its more than 100 years of existence, much less that of the indebted and fragile companies that raise money through the sale of junk bonds. Private equity firms, hedge funds and specialty investment firms like Muzinich & Co. dominate the market for junk-rated debt. In effect, the Fed has swooped in to protect the most sophisticated investors from losses on some of their riskiest bets.

    Muzinich & Co. Profited From the Government’s Actions

    Muzinich & Co.’s largest fund, with over $10 billion in assets, jumped in value when the Treasury and the Federal Reserve announced plans to buy bonds

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    Data from Morningstar Direct for the Muzinich Enhanced Yield Short-Term Fund

    Justin Muzinich’s ongoing ties to the family firm present a thicket of potential conflicts of interest, ethics lawyers said. Instead of immediately divesting his stake in the firm when he joined the Trump administration in early 2017, Muzinich retained it until the end of that year. But even then, he did not sell his stake and use the proceeds to buy broad-based securities such as index funds, as is common practice. Instead, he transferred his piece of the company to his father, who owns Muzinich & Co. In exchange, he received what amounts to an IOU — a written agreement in which his father agreed to pay him for the shares, with interest, but with no principal due for nine years.

    “This is something akin to a fake divestiture,” said Kathleen Clark, a law professor and ethics specialist at Washington University in St. Louis.

    “It sure looks like he is simply parking this asset with a relative, and he will likely get it back after he leaves the government.”

    A Treasury spokeswoman declined to say whether Muzinich has pledged not to take back the stake in the family firm once his public service ends. Muzinich “takes his ethics obligations very seriously” and “any suggestion to the contrary is completely baseless,” she said.

    She added the arrangement with his family firm was approved by the Office of Government Ethics and agency ethics lawyers, who recently reexamined the setup given Muzinich’s role in the economic crisis response. They concluded that there is no currently envisaged scenario in which Muzinich would make decisions as a government official that would affect his father’s ability to repay the money he owes under the IOU.

    “Treasury’s career Designated Agency Ethics Official has determined that there is no such conflict of interest, as there are no current or reasonably anticipated matters in which Deputy Secretary Muzinich would participate that would affect the note obligor’s ability or willingness to satisfy its financial obligations under the note,” she said in a statement. (The note obligor is Muzinich’s father.)

    Muzinich & Co. did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

    Muzinich’s relationship with the family firm also creates potential conflicts related to Muzinich & Co.’s clients. The firm makes money by charging investment management fees to several dozen wealthy individuals, insurance companies, pension funds, as well as what filings describe as a “quasi foreign government corporation.” The client list is not public and it’s unclear whether Muzinich would know about clients that came on board since he left. But any large investor has much to gain, or lose, from decisions being made by the Treasury about the bailout policies.

    “The clients of this firm, I imagine, must be thrilled that Muzinich has this vitally important, powerful position with a huge amount of discretion and authority,” Clark said.

    The Treasury spokeswoman declined to answer a question about the firm’s clients.

    Even as Justin Muzinich has presided over bailout policies criticized by some observers, Muzinich & Co. executives have praised the government’s actions in recent briefings for investors. One described the interventions “as providing somewhat of a floor underneath the high yield market.”

    Another Muzinich executive, David Bowen, who manages one of the firm’s high-yield bond portfolios, said during a May 20 webinar, “The Fed has been about as supportive, helpful, accommodative — whatever word you want to use — as anyone could imagine.”

    Untangling the Financial Relationship

    When Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin hired Justin Muzinich as counselor in early 2017, in many ways he was selecting a younger version of himself.

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    Justin Muzinich, center left, then a top adviser to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, center, on Capitol Hill on Sept. 12, 2017. (Al Drago/The New York Times/Redux)

    Like Mnuchin, Muzinich grew up in New York City, the son of a wealthy finance executive. Also like his boss, Muzinich spent years collecting a series of elite credentials: He attended Groton and holds degrees from Harvard College, the London School of Economics, Yale Law School and Harvard Business School. He worked at Morgan Stanley and spent a few months at a hedge fund associated with billionaire Steven A. Cohen, followed by a few years at EMS Capital, which invests the money of the wealthy Safra family.

    Colleagues praise Muzinich as hardworking and serious, and Democrats have expressed relief that he isn’t as inflammatory as many other Trump appointees. Powell, the Fed chair, called Muzinich “creative and extremely capable” in a statement to The Wall Street Journal in April.

    In 2010, he joined the family firm and became its president. His father, George, founded the company in 1988, specializing in handling portfolios of American high-yield bonds for European pension funds. The company expanded to offer funds to other institutional investors and wealthy individuals, but it stuck to its focus on corporate credit — particularly the riskier type that pays higher interest rates. Headquartered in New York and London, the firm has eight offices across Europe and one in Singapore.

    “Talking about credit all the time might sound boring, I’m sure it does,” Justin Muzinich said in a 2014 interview, “but that is what makes you good.”

    As he rose in the family business, Muzinich also launched himself into GOP policy circles, advising the presidential campaigns of Mitt Romney in 2012 and Jeb Bush in 2016. He owns a $20 million ultramodern beachfront house in the Hamptons and a $4.5 million Park Avenue apartment and commutes from New York City to work in Washington.

    When Muzinich entered the Trump administration, he reported owning stock and stock options in the family firm collectively worth at least $60 million. The true value could be much higher, but disclosure rules don’t require officials to give a specific figure for any asset worth more than $50 million.

    The Treasury’s ethics officers are frequently called on to rule on complex questions, given that the department tends to attract people from careers on Wall Street who have large, complicated financial holdings — from ex-Goldman Sachs Chairman Hank Paulson to banker and Hollywood financier Mnuchin.

    Stakes in individual companies can create conflicts of interest. So incoming Treasury officials typically sell those stocks and invest in broad-based options like mutual funds. Ownership in private investment funds can be particularly thorny because ethics rules treat each of the fund’s investments in specific companies as sources of potential conflicts. Sarah Bloom Raskin, who preceded Muzinich as deputy secretary in the Obama administration, reported holding only a collection of index and mutual funds that either track the whole stock market or a large basket of companies.

    But government ethics officials did not require Muzinich to sell his stake in the family firm through his first year in office as counselor to Mnuchin.

    According to ethics filings, Muzinich said that he did not divest it until December 2017, the month the tax law was signed. (Several months later, in April 2018, Trump nominated him to be deputy secretary.)

    Muzinich did not receive cash for most of his stake in the family firm. Instead, his more recent financial disclosures show that the stake, held in a family trust, was replaced with an opaque asset described as a “receivable from family,” valued at over $50 million.

    Muzinich’s disclosure filings don’t reveal much about this asset at all. They don’t say who the family member is or explain the arrangement. They don’t say how the terms were negotiated, or even if the valuation of the deal was vetted by an independent third party.

    It turns out that Muzinich transferred his stake to his father. But his father didn’t have to pay him right away. According to a Senate Finance Committee memo obtained by ProPublica, Justin received two promissory notes from his father in return for the shares. The notes pay Justin between $1 million and $5 million in interest over a year, at a rate of 2.11%. Moreover, his father does not have to pay any principal on the loan for nine years.

    Neither the financial disclosure forms nor the Senate memo say how long the agreement is supposed to last. Neither addresses the possibility of his getting the shares back after he leaves the government. The Treasury says the transaction is “not reversible” but did not elaborate.

    In other words, Justin still has an ongoing long-term stake in the financial well-being of Muzinich & Co., since his father now owes him more than $50 million. If the company were to plummet in value or even go under, it could cost Justin. Actions the Treasury and the Fed take can either enhance the chances he gets his money back or lower them.

    The Treasury defended the IOU transaction as an appropriate remedy for any conflicts of interest. The agency provided a statement from Elizabeth Horton, an ethics attorney who left the agency in 2019 and who worked with Muzinich on the divestiture from his family business. Horton said that when Muzinich first joined the agency, “the Treasury ethics office correctly advised him that he did not need to divest his holdings in his family business because of the generalized nature of his work on tax reform legislation.” She said that when his duties changed, “I advised Mr. Muzinich that an exchange for a fixed value note was an appropriate way to divest.”

    Horton said that advice was “consistent with practice in previous administrations” — though the Treasury declined to cite similar cases. “Muzinich worked very closely with the ethics office and was extremely attentive to his ethics obligations,” Horton said.

    ProPublica reached out to four ethics officials, including two former Treasury ethics lawyers. None could recall a similar divestment transaction. Three of the four disagreed that it resolved Muzinich’s conflicts, while one said that turning it into an asset with a value that doesn’t fluctuate with future developments should shield him from any allegations of impropriety.

    The deal does not look like an arms-length transaction, said Virginia Canter, who served as a career ethics attorney at Treasury during the George W. Bush administration and is now at the watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

    “The terms of the loan suggest something less than a bona fide transaction,” she said. “Once he leaves office, nothing in the arrangement appears to preclude Muzinich from forgiving the debt owed to him by his father so they can amicably agree on returning to Muzinich the interest in the Muzinich family business.”

    As ranking member of the Finance Committee, Sen. Ron Wyden opposed Muzinich’s nomination as deputy secretary because of his role in crafting the tax bill. Although he would have preferred a cash sale of the Muzinich & Co. stock, Wyden said in a statement that in July 2018 Muzinich had agreed to “strengthen his recusal commitments to include matters where his family’s company is a party.”

    That satisfied Wyden at the time, but it is a very narrow restriction. A vast range of issues before the Treasury could affect Muzinich & Co. regardless of whether the firm was directly a party to any of them.

    How Justin Muzinich treated the transaction for tax purposes could reveal whether it was a true and final sale or not.

    Ordinarily, a sale of an asset such as equity in a company would trigger a capital gains tax bill. In Muzinich’s case, that could run into the tens of millions of dollars, even though his father paid him no cash upfront. But there is an exception if the asset in question is merely transferred with a commitment to have it returned, said Steve Rosenthal, a tax law expert at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

    “If you are merely parking or pledging securities, and you are going to get them back, that’s not viewed as a taxable transaction,” he said.

    It is not clear how he reported the transaction to the IRS, and whether he was left with a huge tax bill. The Treasury declined to comment on the tax issues.

    Tax Reform — for Friends and Family

    Through his first year in the administration, even as Muzinich continued to own his stake in the family firm, he met with a wide range of business executives to hash out major tax provisions that would affect them, according to his 2017 calendars that ProPublica obtained after suing the Treasury last year under the Freedom of Information Act. Others were obtained by the watchdog group American Oversight. The Treasury redacted large sections of the calendars, saying that they required consultation with the White House before they could be released.

    One of the most important principles in the federal government ethics rules covers whether an official is dealing with a “particular matter” that would affect a discrete group of people with specific interests or a “general matter” that affects a larger and more diverse group.

    The Treasury spokeswoman said the tax reform bill was to affect a very large and diverse group, so ethics rules did not prevent Muzinich from working on it. He was allowed to keep his equity in the company while working on the tax bill because his “duties did not include particular matters that required divestiture of certain assets.”

    But many industries had specific interests in the tax bill that they lobbied on — industries that may include clients of Muzinich & Co. Insurance companies, for example, featured prominently. Muzinich met with trade groups representing insurers as well as Liberty Mutual, The Hartford, Zurich and Blue Cross Blue Shield. In the final tax bill, property and casualty insurers fared particularly well by dodging new limitations on deductions that applied to other companies.

    Insurance companies invest their premiums in order to increase their profits. In its regulatory filings, Muzinich & Co. reports that 17 of its 89 clients are insurance companies, which have given the firm more than $1.4 billion to invest. Muzinich & Co. did not provide a list of its clients.

    Some of the companies Muzinich & Co. has stakes in also have been lobbying the Treasury on their own behalf. For example, Muzinich & Co. helps its clients invest in business development companies, a type of investment fund that enjoys lower taxes in exchange for providing capital to medium-sized companies. The firm itself owns stock in BDCs, many of them run by private equity companies such as Ares Capital Corporation, which has paid millions of dollars to lobby for looser rules governing the BDC industry.

    Even beyond any overlap with the family firm’s interests, Muzinich’s calendars, which cover the period from February to September of 2017, reflect the administration’s priorities in negotiating the tax deal. Muzinich spent long days in meetings with private equity titans, energy company CEOs and heavy-hitting interest groups like the Business Roundtable and the anti-tax group Americans for Prosperity. His calendar shows no meetings with labor unions or progressive groups.

    Muzinich did meet often with the Treasury’s in-house tax experts but frequently didn’t follow their recommendations. Richard Prisinzano, who served in the agency’s tax analysis office until August 2017, recalled trying to tell Mnuchin and Muzinich that drastically lowering corporate tax rates would likely prompt businesses to transform into C corporations, which often pay lower rates under the new law.

    He argued that such a change would further reduce tax revenues. Muzinich disagreed, Prisinzano said, protesting that businesses wouldn’t change their corporate form just to lower their taxes. “He really pushed back,” Prisinzano recalled. “He said to me, ‘The secretary is a numbers person, and the numbers don’t make sense to him.’”

    “‘I’m a numbers person, and they make perfect sense to me,’” Prisinzano said he responded. “That was not an answer that they liked.”

    In the following two years, many large businesses did indeed convert into C corporations, including private equity giants Ares, Blackstone and KKR. The government hasn’t produced an estimate of how big a hit taxpayers took from these conversions.

    During his confirmation hearing as deputy secretary in July 2018, Democratic senators pressed Muzinich on whether he agreed with the White House that the tax bill would “pay for itself,” despite the dire projections of independent forecasters such as the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. “Yes,” Muzinich responded.

    It has not come close, as corporate tax collections plunged and left the national debt at historic levels on the eve of the pandemic.

    Muzinich Takes on the COVID-19 Crisis

    As the economic response to the novel coronavirus consumed Washington in March, Mnuchin turned again to Muzinich to negotiate with Congress over the shape of a bailout intended to sustain companies as they weathered the worst part of the crisis.

    Ultimately, Trump administration officials and lawmakers settled on a package worth more than $2 trillion, divided into aid regimens for different sectors of the economy. While setting general parameters, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act gives the Treasury wide latitude over how the money is to be distributed. It calls for $50 billion in grants and loans for the airline industry, for example, with few rules on who should get what. (In another potential intersection with Muzinich’s Treasury work, Muzinich & Co. started a new business line to loan money to airlines to buy planes in February.)

    Perhaps the greatest power the Treasury now has is the authority to sign off on Fed loan programs funded with CARES Act money. The Fed has said it will leverage that money to lend up to several trillion dollars.

    Among their biggest decisions: Which firms to include in the $600 billion Main Street Lending Program, which will lend directly to mid-sized businesses, and how to structure two programs that will purchase up to $750 billion in corporate bonds.

    The Main Street program, which has yet to launch, changed substantially after it was first announced to sweep in bigger companies and those with heavier debt loads. Offering a glimpse into how the Treasury directly shaped the Fed programs, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette told Bloomberg the change was made in part to make sure beleaguered oil companies had access to the program’s favorable terms. Muzinich & Co.’s U.S.-based funds include dozens of energy companies.

    Mnuchin also deputized Muzinich to fix problems that arose during the first round of funding for the Paycheck Protection Program, which offers forgivable loans to small businesses. The government hasn’t said who got money through the program, but Muzinich & Co.’s portfolio includes many companies that are small enough to be eligible.

    The Fed’s bond purchasing programs will go even further to help companies with poorly rated credit.

    On March 23, the Fed and the Treasury announced a sweeping stimulus program that would involve buying hundreds of billions of dollars of investment-grade bonds. Selling bonds is a way for large companies like Boeing or PepsiCo to raise money for new investments, to fund day-to-day operations or to pay back older loans. Companies that are strong and profitable are expected to be able to pay back the borrowed money. Their bonds are deemed “investment grade” and come with lower interest rates. The news of the Fed program on its own heralded a dramatic recovery in the bond market, which in three weeks recovered nearly all of the 13.6% it had lost since the plunge began on March 6, according to one index.

    Then, on April 9, the Fed announced, with the Treasury’s approval, that it would expand its efforts to buy some junk bonds. These carry higher interest rates because the borrowing companies are viewed as riskier and may already be heavily in debt. One index tracking that market segment surged nearly 8% on the news, the most in a decade. This risker category of bonds has expanded dramatically in recent years as companies took on higher debt burdens to do things like acquire competitors and buy back stock. These are the bonds in which Muzinich & Co. has long specialized.

    At the end of 2019, Muzinich & Co. reported it had $2.8 billion of assets under management in its U.S. high-yield bond strategy.Muzinich fund that focuses specifically on those bonds took significant losses in March, as companies like oilfield services provider Targa Resources and Caesars Entertainment saw the price of their bonds fall 30% and 35% respectively.

    The government’s announcement buoyed Muzinich & Co.’s high-yield holdings along with everyone else’s. The portfolio manager for the firm’s U.S. high-yield offering also praised CARES Act’s tax provisions that would “help high yield companies.”

    In a separate development in May, the Fed expanded another Treasury-backed lending program in a way that could help Muzinich & Co.’s portfolio. The central bank said May 12 it would support “syndicated loans,” another form of corporate debt often in which riskier firms borrow money from multiple lenders. Muzinich & Co. had more than $3 billion in assets under management in U.S. and European syndicated loans at the end of last year.

    The good news for Muzinich & Co. keeps coming. As the firm’s head of investment strategy, Erick Muller, told investors in a May 13 webcast about the junk bond market: “The recovery is pretty spectacular.”

  • Unprecedented Surge In New CMBS Delinquencies Heralds Commercial Real Estate Disaster
    Unprecedented Surge In New CMBS Delinquencies Heralds Commercial Real Estate Disaster

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 20:25

    One month ago, we thought that the unprecedented implosion in US commercial real estate in the month of April following the near-uniform economic shutdown following the coronavius pandemic, manifesting in the surge in newly delinquent CMBS loans would be one for the ages, even though as we predicted May would likely be worse as a result of the spike in specially services loans. 

    And indeed while April was catastrophic, May was even worse.

    According to the latest remittance data by Trepp, the surge in CMBS delinquencies that most industry watchers were anticipating came through in May. After Trepp’s CMBS Delinquency Rate registered at 2.29% in April, in May the Delinquency Rate logged its largest increase in the history of this metric since 2009. The May reading was 7.15%, a jump of 481 basis points over the April number. Almost 5% of that number is represented by loans in the 30-day delinquent bucket.

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    There was some good news: given that about 8% of loans had missed payments for the April remittance cycle (in the grace period), the fact that delinquencies went up less than 5% has to be viewed as a small “win.” That, or simply the backlog of delinquencies has prevented the proper accounting of all deals.

    Alas, that “win” won’t last, and will be reversed next month, when the delinquency rate will hits double digits as about 7.61% of loans by balance missed the May payment but remained less than 30 days delinquent (i.e., within the grace period).

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    On the other hand, as more forbearances receive approval, some delinquent loans could revert to current status based on expectations of how loan statuses will be reported in servicer data going forward, if reported correctly. For instance, if a loan’s last payment was made in March, it would not show up as 60 days delinquent in June if a forbearance had been granted. Of course, this step merely delayed the inevitable, and once forbearances are exhausted, all those loans which are classified as current will all slide right into the default bucket without passing go.

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    Some other overall statistics:

    The percentage of loans in special servicing rose from 4.39% in April to 6.07% in May. According to May servicer data, 16.2% of all lodging loans were in special servicing, up from 11.4% in April. In addition, 9.3% of retail loans are with the special servicer, up from about 6% the month prior.  The percentage of loans on servicer watchlist in May was 19.9%.

    The Overall Numbers

    • The overall US CMBS delinquency rate climbed 481 basis points in May to 7.15%. The all-time high on this basis was 10.34% registered in July 2012. We expect this number will be surpassed in the June update.
    • The percentage of A/B loans (i.e. loans in “grace period” or “beyond grace” period) was 7.61% in May.
    • Year-to-date, the overall US CMBS delinquency rate is up 449 basis points.
    • The percentage of loans that are seriously delinquent (60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, REO, or nonperforming balloons) is now 2.17%, up six basis points for the month. (As noted above, the largest increase this month was seen in the 30-day delinquency category; expect the percentages for 60+ day delinquencies to move higher in June.)
    • If defeased loans were taken out of the equation, the overall 30-day delinquency rate would be 7.56%, up 515 basis points from April.
    • One year ago, the US CMBS delinquency rate was 2.66%.
    • Six months ago, the US CMBS delinquency rate was 2.34%

    The CMBS 2.0+ Numbers

    • The CMBS 2.0+ delinquency rate jumped 503 basis points to 6.19% in May. The rate is up 545 basis points year over year.
    • The percentage of CMBS 2.0+ loans that are seriously delinquent is now 1.10%, which is up 12 basis points from April.
    • If defeased loans were taken out of the equation, the overall CMBS 2.0+ delinquency rate would be 6.54%, up 531 basis points for the month.

    The CMBS 1.0 Numbers

    • Note: With CMBS 1.0 loans outstanding dwindling, we plan to retire this statistic beginning in Q3 2020.
    • The CMBS 1.0 delinquency rate rose 110 basis points to 41.74 % in May.
    • The percentage of CMBS 1.0 debt that is seriously delinquent rose 24 basis points to 40.89% last month.
    • If defeased loans were taken out of the equation, the overall CMBS 1.0 delinquency rate would be 47.04%

    Overall Property Type Analysis (CMBS 1.0 and 2.0+) 

    • The industrial delinquency rate climbed 46 basis points to 1.82%
      • The amount of industrial loans categorized as A/B: 2.41% in May
    • The lodging delinquency rate jumped 1642 basis points to 19.13%.
      • The amount of lodging loans categorized as A/B: 14.08% in May
    • The multifamily delinquency rate rose 133 basis points to 3.25%.
      • The amount of multifamily loans categorized as A/B: 2.78% in May
    • The office delinquency rate moved up 48 basis points to 2.40%.
      • The amount of office loans categorized as A/B: 2.72% in May
    • The retail delinquency rate spiked 647 basis points to 10.14%.
      • The amount of retail loans categorized as A/B: 12.53% in May

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  • Shocking Evidence Suggests Coordinated Effort To Orchestrate An Uprising Inside The United States
    Shocking Evidence Suggests Coordinated Effort To Orchestrate An Uprising Inside The United States

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 20:22

    Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

    Violence has erupted in major cities all over America yet again today, and we are being told to brace ourselves for more rioting, looting and civil unrest in the days ahead.  The death of George Floyd was a great tragedy, and the vast majority of Americans agree that we do not want to see that sort of police brutality in our nation, and so this should actually be a moment that brings our country together.  But instead, America is being torn apart.  The protests against police brutality have been hijacked by sinister forces, and they are attempting to channel the outrage over George Floyd’s death in a very violent direction.  As you will see below, law enforcement authorities all over the U.S. are telling us that they have identified a highly organized effort to orchestrate violence, and this appears to be happening on a nationwide basis.

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    Let’s start by looking at what is happening in New York.  According to the top terrorism official in the entire city, “certain anarchist groups”  were making preparations for “violent interactions with police” before protests in the city even began…

    On Sunday night, New York’s top terrorism cop, Deputy Commissioner for Intelligence and Counterterrorism John Miller, detailed his office’s analysis and investigation into why the New York City protests have become so violent and damaging at times.

    “No. 1, before the protests began,” Miller said, “organizers of certain anarchist groups set out to raise bail money and people who would be responsible to be raising bail money, they set out to recruit medics and medical teams with gear to deploy in anticipation of violent interactions with police.”

    And once the protests started, these groups used “a complex network of bicycle scouts” to direct rioters to locations where police officers would not be present…

    “And they developed a complex network of bicycle scouts to move ahead of demonstrators in different directions of where police were and where police were not for purposes of being able to direct groups from the larger group to places where they could commit acts of vandalism including the torching of police vehicles and Molotov cocktails where they thought officers would not be.”

    These are not just mindless angry mobs.  They are being directed with a purpose, and that is very alarming.

    In Chicago, Mayor Lori Lightfoot has publicly acknowledged that there has been “an organized effort” to turn the protests over George Floyd’s death “into something violent” in her city…

    Speaking at an afternoon news conference today with other officials, Lightfoot didn’t say whether the groups are out-of-state left-wing anti-fascist organizations generally known as Antifa, right-wing agitators, local street gangs or something else. She said she’s asked three federal agencies—the FBI, the Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco Firearms & Explosives and the U.S. Attorney’s office—for help, with a focus on AFT’s bomb and arson unit.

    “There is no doubt. This was an organized effort last night,” she said. “There were clearly efforts to subvert the peaceful process and make it into something violent.”

    Lightfoot did not really elaborate on why she believes there has been “an organized effort”, but officials in other cities have been willing to give the public more specifics.

    For example, law enforcement authorities in Minnesota have discovered “several caches of flammable materials” that were obviously intended to be used for rioting…

    Earlier Sunday, state officials said several caches of flammable materials were found both in neighborhoods where there have already been fires and “in cars we’ve stopped as recently as this morning,” said John Harrington, state public safety commissioner. Some of the caches look like they may have been planted days ago and some only in the last 24 hours or so, he said.

    Police are also finding stolen vehicles with plates removed that are being used to transport the flammable materials. Looted goods and weapons also have been found in the stolen cars, he said.

    And in several other cities around the nation, law enforcement authorities have found bricks staged at or near protest sites.

    On Sunday, police in Kansas City announced that they had found “stashes of bricks and rocks in & around the Plaza and Westport to be used during a riot”

    Kansas City police officers found bricks and rocks staged near protest sites around the city, stoking concerns that individuals or groups had pre-planned looting and destruction that hit the city over the weekend, the department said Sunday.

    “We have learned of & discovered stashes of bricks and rocks in & around the Plaza and Westport to be used during a riot,” the department said in a tweet on Sunday.

    And in Baltimore, law enforcement officials were racing to dismantle “mounds of bricks and bottles” that had been staged in downtown Baltimore…

    According to sources, mounds of bricks and bottles have been found in Downtown Baltimore.

    Baltimore Police confirmed they are working with law enforcement partners to sweep the area.

    There are several demonstrations planned for Monday evening. Sources told Fox 45 officers are being briefed on the situation during roll call.

    In New York, a “cache of bricks” just happened to be sitting directly in the path of rioters on Sunday evening…

    Similarly, in New York City, video captured the moment rioters in Manhattan chanced upon a cache of bricks between St. Marks Place and Seventh Street in the East Village on Sunday evening, though no construction site appeared to be nearby.

    Even down in Texas, “a large pile of bricks” was stacked up in front of the courthouse in Dallas and huge stacks of bricks were pre-staged right along a path that protesters would be taking in Frisco.

    I don’t know about you, but I have a very hard time believing that all of this is just a giant coincidence.

    The fact that huge piles of pre-staged bricks are suddenly showing up at protest locations all over America indicates a level of planning and coordination at a very high level.

    Obviously we are dealing with something that is far more complex than just a few thousand angry people letting off some steam.

    With the U.S. economy in deep disarray and with a presidential election coming up in November, anger and frustration are likely to remain at very high levels in the U.S. throughout the summer, and that will give those that are organizing these efforts more opportunities to promote violence.

    Needless to say, the lawlessness that we are witnessing in the streets of our major cities is greatly alarming millions of ordinary Americans, and gun sales are going through the roof

    Gun sales surged in May as shops reported an uptick in interest and demand as the coronavirus pandemic continued and amid national protests after the Memorial Day killing of George Floyd.

    “Almost, you couldn’t even keep up with it – that’s how crazy it was,” said Joe Hawk, owner of Guns & Roses in New Jersey. “After Memorial Day, it spiked again – it just went crazy again.”

    Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting, a private research firm, estimated that there were more than 1.7 million gun sales in May – an 80% jump from May 2019.

    The thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted on a daily basis is disappearing, and a lot of people believe that a lot more civil unrest is ahead.

    Our nation is more deeply divided than it has ever been in my entire lifetime, and that is not likely to change any time soon.

    So I would very much encourage you to do whatever you need to do to get yourself and your family prepared for what is coming, because America appears to be on the precipice of complete and utter chaos.

  • Taibbi: Where Did Policing Go Wrong?
    Taibbi: Where Did Policing Go Wrong?

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 20:05

    Authored by Matt Taibbi,

    Crime has been down for decades, but incarceration is still sky-high and brutality cases keep tearing the country apart. Does policing in America need a fundamental re-think?

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    Watching all the terrible news in the wake of the police killing of George Floyd, it’s been hard not to think about Eric Garner. The cases have so many similarities. Once again, an unarmed African-American man in his forties has been asphyxiated in broad daylight by a police officer with a history of abuse complaints. He and his fellow officers ignore cries of “I can’t breathe,” and keep subduing their target even after he stops moving, unconcerned that he’s being filmed.

    Five years ago, while sketching the outline for a book about the Garner case called I Can’t Breathe, my editor suggested I take on a larger question.

    Why, he asked, do we even have police? After all, the history of policing in our country, especially as it pertains to minority neighborhoods, has always rested upon dubious justifications. The early American police forces evolved out of slave patrols in the South, and “progressed” to enforce the Black Codes from the Civil War period and beyond, on to Jim Crow through the late sixties if not longer.

    In an explicit way, American policing has almost always been concerned on some level with enforcing racial separatism. Because Jim Crow police were upholding a way of life, the actual laws they were given to enforce were deliberately vague, designed to be easily used as pretexts for controlling the movements of black people. They were charged with punishing “idleness” or “impudence,” and encouraged to enforce a range of vagrancy laws, including such offenses as “rambling without a job” and “leading an idle, profligate, or immoral course of life.”

    I ended up not taking on that questionfocusing on the hard-enough question of what had led two young, amped-up policemen to choke the life out of a harmless father and street character like Garner. I was more interested in those police than all police, and part of me – the white part, probably – thought the answer to the question of why we need police at all was at least somewhat self-evident.

    But the Garner story ended up graphically revealing the way modern “Broken Windows” policing had evolved to fit the tactics of those centuries of racial enforcement. I learned that “vagrancy” laws had been replaced in cities like New York with essentially identical offenses like “obstructing pedestrian traffic” and “obstructing government administration.”

    In Staten Island, a borough that to this day remains very segregated – white and black residents alike refer to the Staten Island Expressway that bisects black neighborhoods to the north and white neighborhoods to the south as the “Mason-Dixon line” – the young black men who lived in and around the Tompkinsville area where Garner was killed told stories of being stopped and ticketed whenever they crossed into the wrong neighborhoods.

    The new strategies rely upon extremely high numbers of contacts between police and subject populations, who are stopped for every conceivable minor offense – public intoxication, public urination, riding bicycles the wrong way down a sidewalk, refusing to obey police orders, jumping subway turnstiles, and, in Garner’s case, selling loose cigarettes.

    This idea of high-engagement policing was born in the mind of a Midwestern academic/corrections official named George Kelling. Kelling conducted a number of studies for think tanks like the Police Foundation and eventually co-authored a hugely influential 1982 article in the Atlantic called Broken Windows.

    Kelling in his research found that while people may not actually be safer, they feel safer when there is less visible “disorder” in their neighborhoods, e.g. panhandling, litter, graffiti, etc. Also, research suggested such disorder was incentive to further disorder: as Stanford researcher Philip Zimbardo put it, “If a window in a building is broken and left unrepaired, all of the rest of the windows will soon be broken.”

    “Broken Windows” revolutionized policing, changing it from a business of fighting crime to doing what Kelling described as “order maintenance.” If earlier police theorists like Orlando “O.W.” Wilson hoped to defeat crime by putting officers in squad cars and giving them advanced tools to react more quickly to offenses, the new strategy stressed stopping crime before it got started, by building and maintaining something not defined in law books – “order.”

    Once again, police were charged with enforcing not rules but a way of life, and were asked again to view the law as more of a tool than an end in itself. The famous “Broken Windows” article spoke approvingly of officers in Chicago who read between the lines of the law to chase gang members out of a project: “In the words of one officer, ‘We kick ass.’”

    The Kelling revolution was credited with early successes, like the cleaning up of the New York City subway. Soon the “Broken Windows” strategy (sometimes euphemistically called “community policing”) was the norm in big cities. Mass stops and arrests led to amazing numbers, like Baltimore under Mayor Martin O’Malley arresting 100,000 people in 2004 alone, or the city of Chicago stopping 250,000 people in 2014, a stop rate four times higher than New York in the peak years of “stop-and-frisk.”

    When such policing became hot in the nineties, as advocates like Bill Bratton became national celebrities (here he is on the cover of Time in 1996 under the headline, “Finally, we’re winning the war against crime. Here’s why”), police departments became infected by a corporate-like mania for “goal-setting” and “deliverables.” There was no numerical way to impress politicians if police just worked cases as they came: to show progress, Bratton believed, one had to order police to produce concrete quantities of stops, searches, arrests.

    Commissioners demanded captains deliver numbers and captains began browbeating lesser officers, who in turn pushed quotas on patrol cops, for reasons that often had nothing to do with crime. As depicted in the The Wire, in the stats revolution, “shit always rolls downhill.” The point was to get lieutenants promoted to captain, to get mayors re-elected, and help provide the rationale for the prison jobs state legislators were bringing home to suburban districts. All of this was greased by the lobbying money of construction firms, prison vendors, even private prison corporations – a great business for all, and all that was needed to keep it going was an endless stream of jailable people.

    This is why, even as rates of both violent crime and property crime have been decreasing steadily since the early nineties, rates of incarceration have been exploding in the other direction. For most of the 20th century the rate of incarceration in America was roughly 110 per 100,000 people. As of last year, the number was 655 per 100,000. Although the numbers have dipped slightly in recent years, down from a high of about 760 per 100,000 in 2013, the quantity of prisoners in America remains absurdly high.

    Such aggressive, military-style policing would be not be tolerated by voters if it were taking place everywhere. It’s popular, and continues to be embraced by politicians in both parties, because it’s only happening in “those” neighborhoods (or, as Mike Bloomberg once put it, “where the crime is”). Even during the Covid-19 crisis, 80% of the summonses for social distancing violations are given out to blacks and Hispanics. Does anyone really think that minorities account for that massive a percentage of those violations? Do they think black people really commit 3.73 times as many marijuana offenses as white people?

    Basically we have two systems of enforcement in America, a minimalist one for people with political clout, and an intrusive one for everyone else. In the same way our army in Vietnam got in trouble when it started searching for ways to quantify the success of its occupation, choosing sociopathic metrics like “body counts” and “truck kills,” modern big-city policing has been corrupted by its lust for summonses, stops, and arrests. It’s made monsters where none needed to exist.

    Because they’re constantly throwing those people against walls, writing them nuisance tickets, and violating their space with humiliating searches (New York in 2010 paid $33 million to a staggering 100,000 people strip-searched after misdemeanor charges), modern cops correctly perceive that they’re hated. As a result, many embrace a “warrior” ethos that teaches them to view themselves as under constant threat.  

    This is why you see so many knees on heads and necks, guns drawn on unarmed motorists, chokeholds by the thousand, and patterns of massive overkill everywhere – 41 shots fired at Amadou Diallo, 50 at Sean Bell, 137 at Timothy Russell and Malissa Williams in Cleveland, and homicides over twenty bucks or a loose cigarette.

    Police are trained to behave like occupiers, which is why they increasingly dress like they’ve been sent to clear houses in Mosul and treat random motorists like potential car-bombers – think of poor Philando Castile, shot seven times by a police officer who leaped back firing in panic like he was being attacked by Freddy Krueger, instead of a calm, compliant, educated young man. Officers with histories of abuse complaints like Daniel Pantaleo and Derek Chauvin are kept on the force because senior officers value police who make numbers more than they fear outrage from residents in their districts. The incentives in this system are wrong in every direction.

    The current protests are likely to inspire politicians to think the other way, but it’s probably time to reconsider what we’re trying to accomplish with this kind of policing. In upscale white America drug use is effectively decriminalized, and Terry stops, strip searches, and “quality of life” arrests are unknowns. The country isn’t going to heal as long as everyone else gets a knee in the neck.

  • Lancet Issues Major Disclaimer On Anti-HCQ Study, As Manufactured Disinformation Foments Hysterics
    Lancet Issues Major Disclaimer On Anti-HCQ Study, As Manufactured Disinformation Foments Hysterics

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 19:45

    The Lancet has issued a major disclaimer regarding a study which prompted the World Health Organization to halt global trials of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), an anti-Malaria drug currently being used around the world to treat COVID-19.

    As we noted last week, major data discrepancies have called the entire study into question – though the lead author says it does not change the study’s findings that patients who received HCQ died at higher rates and experienced more cardiac complications than without.

    Until the data has been audited, The Lancet issued the following “expression of concern” regarding the study.

    “Important scientific questions have been raised about data reported in the paper by Mandeep Mehra et al,” reads the “expression of concern” from The Lancet.

    “Although an independent audit of the provenance and validity of the data has been commissioned by the authors not affiliated with Surgisphere and is ongoing, with results expected very shortly, we are issuing an Expression of Concern to alert readers to the fact that serious scientific questions have been brought to our attention. We will update this notice as soon as we have further information.”

    -The Lancet

    Of course, this is yet more evidence of the manufactured disinformation surrounding HCQ that Richard Moss, MD, (via AmericanThinker.com)  exposes below…

    I took hydroxychloroquine for two years.  A long time ago as a visiting cancer surgeon in Asia, in Thailand, Nepal, India, and Bangladesh.  From 1987 to 1990.  Malaria is rife there.  I took it for prophylaxis, 400 milligrams once a week for two years.  Never had any trouble.  It was inexpensive and effective. 

    I started it two weeks before and was supposed to continue it through my stay and four weeks after returning.  But I stopped it after two years.  I was worried about potential side effects of which there are many, as with all drugs right down to Tylenol and aspirin.  These, however, are rare.  At a certain point, I was prepared to take my chances with mosquitoes and plasmodium, and so I stopped. 

    Chloroquine, the precursor of HCQ, was invented by Bayer in 1934.  Hydroxychloroquine was developed during World War II as a safer, synthetic alternative and approved for medical use in the U.S. in 1955. 

    The World Health Organization considers it an essential medicine, among the safest and most effective medicines, a staple of any healthcare system.  In 2017, US doctors prescribed it 5 million times, the 128th most commonly prescribed drug in the country.  There have been hundreds of millions of prescriptions worldwide since its inception.  It is one of the cheapest and best drugs in the world and has saved millions of lives.  Doctors also prescribe it for Lupus and Rheumatoid arthritis patients who may consume it for their lifetimes with few or no ill effects. 

    Then something happened to this wonder drug. 

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    From savior of the multitudes, redeemer and benefactor of hundreds of millions, it transformed into something else: a purveyor of doom, despair, and unspeakable carnage. 

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    It began when President Trump discussed it as a possible treatment for COVID-19 on March 19, 2020.  The gates of hell burst forth on May 18 when Trump casually announced that he was taking it, prescribed by his physician. 

    Attacks on Trump and this otherwise harmless little molecule poured in.  The heretofore respected, commonly used, and highly effective medicinal became a major threat to life, a nefarious and wicked chemical that could alter critical heart rhythms, resulting in sudden cataclysmic death for unsuspecting innocents.  Trump, more than irresponsible, was evil incarnate for daring to even mention it.  While at it, the salivating media trotted out the canard about Trump’s nonrecommendation for injecting Clorox and Lysol or drinking fish-tank cleaner to combat COVID.  It was Charlottesville all over again. 

    Before a nation of non-cardiologists, the media agonized over, of all things, the prolongation of the now infamous “QT interval,” and the risk of sudden cardiac death.  The FDA and NIH piled on, piously demanding randomized, controlled, double-blind studies before physicians prescribed HCQ.  No one mentioned that the risk of cardiac arrest was far higher from watching the Superbowl. Nor did the media declare that HCQ and chloroquine have been used throughout the world for half a century, making them among the most widely prescribed drugs in history with not a single reported case of “arrhythmic death” according to the sainted WHO and the American College of Cardiology.  Or that physicians in the field, on the frontlines, so to speak, based on empirical evidence, have found benefit in treating patients with a variety of agents including HCQZincAzithromycin, Quercetin, Elderberry supplements, Vitamins D and C with few if any complications.  Or that while such regimens may not cure, they may help and carry little or no risk. 

    And so, the world was aflame once again with a nonstory driven by the COVID media.  The HCQ divide within the nation is only a continuation of innumerable divides that have surfaced since the pandemic began — and before.  One will know the politics of an individual based on his position on any number of pandemic issues: lockdowns, sheltering in place, face masks, social distancing, “elective surgery,” and “essential businesses.”  The closing of schools and colleges.  Blue states and Red states.  Governor Cuomo or Governor DeSantis.  Nationwide injunctions or federalism.  The WHO and Red China.  Or, pre-pandemic, Brexit, open borders, DACA, and amnesty.  CBD oil, turmeric, and legalizing marijuana.  Russia Collusion, Trump’s taxes, the 25th amendment, Stormy Daniels, the Ukraine non-scandal, and impeachment. Or Obamagate. And now HCQ. 

    HCQ is only another bellwether.  It represents the latest nonevent in a long string of fabricated media nonscandals.  If a nation can be divided over HCQ it can be divided over anything.  It shows neatly, as many of the other non-issues did, whether one embraces the U.S., our history, culture, and constitutional system, or rejects it.  Whether one believes in Americanism or despises it.  It is part of the ongoing civil war, thus far cold, but who knows?  The passions today are no less jarring than they were in 1860.  One would have thought that a man taking a medicine prescribed by his physician, even a President, would be a private matter.  But no.  Not today. 

    We swim in an ocean of manufactured disinformation created by a radical COVID media, our fifth column.  They inflame the nation one way or another based on political whims.  The propaganda arm of the Left, they seek victory at all costs including dismantling the economy, culture, and our governing system.  Is there a curative for the COVID media and their Democrat allies who would destroy a nation to destroy Trump?  He is all that stands between us and them.  Is there an antiviral for this, the communist virus that has infected the nation, metastasized throughout its corpus, and now threatens the republic?

    *  *  *

    Dr. Moss is a practicing Ear Nose and Throat Surgeon, author, and columnist, residing in Jasper, IN.  He has written A Surgeon’s Odyssey and Matilda’s Triumph available on amazon.com.  Find more of his essays at richardmossmd.com

  • The Property Tax Assessment Nationwide RICO Scam
    The Property Tax Assessment Nationwide RICO Scam

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 19:25

    Submitted by George Wuenschel, Missoula, Montana.

    I am a retired California real estate broker living in Montana. I am not an appraiser but I went beyond mere brokerage and was an expert witness for many law firms and have been trusted as an expert on valuation in several cases in state and federal trials. I was active in the support of California’s Prop 13 to limit property tax.

    Recently I have found a serious nationwide injustice in the determination of assessed value for property taxation. There was a time when price and value could, in most cases, be considered synonymous. Those days are long gone.

    There exists a balancing effect between price and financing terms which is precisely determinable mathematically. If an unusually low interest rate is available to a particular home (i.e. seller financing, assumable loan) a buyer can and will pay more for the property.

    Property tax appraisers are required to make a “cash value” appraisal for real estate. They must make adjustments to value for every influence upon price that is not really part of the value of the real estate itself. An example would be a $700K sale price that included a Ferrari in the garage. The home’s cash value is less than its stated sale price. Cash equivalency adjustments must also be made for any influence upon price caused by financing to the extent such financing has a positive or negative annuity value.

    In order to determine the value of favorable financing, it must be contrasted against some other financing package as a benchmark. Tax assessors have always presumed that no cash equivalency adjustments were necessary for financing if the terms a buyer received were substantially the same as those terms quoted by common financial institutions, or “street terms”. That was plausible as long as street terms resulted from free and open competition between borrowers and savers, as it was when real estate taxes were implemented.

    That was the purpose of Fannie Mae. Investors would purchase FNMA bonds and that competitive market influenced interest rates on current loans. Interest rates are now merely set by the same entity that creates money; the Federal Reserve Bank.

    Borrowers are no longer borrowing from savers using banks and marketplaces as an intermediary. The Federal Reserve Bank actually creates the money for borrowers, then the note executed by the borrower, through a circuitous route, eventually winds up on the Fed’s balance sheet as ‘backing’ for the money created. This is the only way that home mortgages could be made available today at 3.5% in a 10% inflationary environment. Consequently, the price of a home is considerably higher than its cash value.

    This artificially-low interest rate loan has a current cash value that adds to the price of every real estate transaction in the US, but that added value doesn’t come from the property itself. It is akin to the Ferrari in the garage. In those rare cases where a buyer actually pays cash for a home, that buyer must compete with borrowing buyers. The seller wants the  financial benefit of getting the highest price, so there is no discount for the cash buyer who declines this contribution to price from the FRB. Consequently, it is the mere availability of an artificially-low interest rate loan that adds to the price paid for real estate, but does not add to its true value. Should anyone doubt this dynamic, just remove the artificially-low interest rate and watch what happens to the price.

    In order to determine the value of an artificially-low interest rate loan, it must be contrasted against a true market-based loan. That requires speculation about what the interest rates would be if based upon free and open competition between borrowers and savers. Since nobody can possibly make such loans in competition with the FRB’s member banks, there is no  lending operations to obtain such figures. All we can determine is the floor or minimum interest rate required just to break even by starting with the real inflation rate that affects the US dollar.

    The well-respected Chapwood index (chapwoodindex.com) and economist John Williams index (shadowstats.com) both show a loss of purchasing power in the US Dollar of about 10% annually. Lenders will always compute a real rate of return (note rate minus inflation). The first 10% interest they receive is really not a profit at all. It only offsets the decline in purchasing power of the dollars the lender has tied up in the loan. Since lenders will be taxed on interest income from nominal dollars, the lender additionally needs to recover those taxes from the interest rate. Then there are loan servicing costs, loan origination costs, and finally, profit.

    There is no way interest rates could be less than 12% today if such rates had to be determined by free and open competition between borrowers and savers unless we expect such lenders to systematically lose wealth in order to make loans. They only way to circumvent that reality is to have the entity that creates money also be the ultimate funding source behind the loans. The injustice here is that appraisers contrast the street interest rate against the actual rate the borrower received resulting in no needed equivalency adjustment to arrive at the cash value of the real estate.

    I contend they should be contrasting that artificially-low rate loan against the rate that would be required if determined from free and open competition between borrowers and savers. Remember, the purpose of the adjustment is to separate the value of the home from the value of extraneous elements of price that do not come from the home itself.

    Why doesn’t a proposed real estate lender’s appraiser make such adjustments? All appraisals have a purpose. The purpose of a proposed lender’s appraisal is to protect their security interest so they don’t get over-extended. They must be confident that, if they need to foreclose, the property will sell for enough to satisfy the lender’s loan. A lender is unconcerned about the components that make up price. They are only concerned about price itself because that is what will protect their loan. But tax appraisers must determine cash value, which is very different than price in this artificial environment. And why do savers and bond purchasers routinely accept less than a 2% risk-adjusted yield on their investments in a 10% inflationary environment? Certainly not in pursuit of profit. They do it to mitigate the losses of staying liquid in cash because its the best that can be done in an artificial environment where the free market and price discovery is totally corrupted.

    For property tax purposes, all real estate is overvalued by 30% to 35% for ad valorem taxation (tax based upon value) because of this valuation scam. About 2/3 of a typical property tax bill is based upon the value of the property while the remaining 1/3 is a tax on the value of an annuity injected into every sale transaction by the Federal Reserve system. All sale transactions become a historic comparable sale used to determine the value of all other homes for tax purposes. Each and every one of those comparable sales reflect an erroneous inflated value unless they are adjusted to cash equivalency – and they are never adjusted.

    One way to understand the need for cash-equivalency adjustments is to consider the effect on price if home mortgage interest rates go negative, as they did in Denmark. A negative interest rate loan is actually an income instrument to the borrower. A negative interest rate loan will eventually amortize to a $0 balance without any payments ever being made. In such a case, the price of the secured real estate should go to infinity because price doesn’t matter. If cash equivalency adjustments were still not made for such financing, the property tax bill must likewise go to infinity. Can rates go negative in the US? Measuring from 12% rates, we have traversed three quarters of that distance. We are already deep into artificially high real estate valuations and very close to infinite valuations.

    Having spoken informally to two lawyers about this matter, including a former US Assistant Prosecutor, they recommended a 42 US Code Section 1983 Civil Rights case. However, there are several prevailing facts that increase the severity of this tax injustice.

    There are multiple government entities involved in the conspiracy: state appraisers, county tax assessors, county tax collectors, county recorder’s office, and sometimes even the state court when they induce a forced tax sale. There is an ever-present threat that if the inflated tax bill isn’t paid, the property will be involuntarily sold out from under the owner. There are government officials operating under the color of doing their job. So why isn’t this a violation of The Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, 18 US Code Chapter 96 (RICO)?

    It is RICO, but a nightmare of a case. Nonetheless, I have made a RICO complaint to the US Department of Justice. In my state of Montana, a state appraiser admitted they are not making such cash-equivalency adjustments and the Governor’s office will not respond. Its time for homeowners to get vocal.

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Today’s News 2nd June 2020

  • "Unmatched Performance" – German Army Test-Fires New Light Machine Gun
    “Unmatched Performance” – German Army Test-Fires New Light Machine Gun

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 02:45

    As tensions boil between the US and Russia, Germany’s armed forces have recently test-fired a new lightweight, compact machine gun with high firepower. 

    According to Defense Blog, German Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support (BAAINBw) have tested the MG4 A3 light machine gun, manufactured by German firearm company Heckler & Koch. 

    The advanced version of MG4 is expected to replace MG3 machine guns currently in field service with Bundeswehr soldiers. 

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    Three-week test trials were recently completed with soldiers from the 26th Airborne Brigade based in Zweibrücken, a NATO military air base in West Germany. 

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    The machine gun chambers a 5.56×45 mm NATO round and offers a fully automatic shooting opportunity with a rotating bolt gas mechanism. A new paint coating and optical sight upgrades make this model even more lethal. The weapon has less recoil than before and is much lighter, which improves firing accuracy.

    “It provides unmatched performance characteristics: Owing to its low recoil, the shot is readily controllable, giving high target precision. Its great combat effectiveness and range, the optimal rate of fire, and simple handling make it a weapon unlike any other,” Defense Blog said. 

    Germany is not the only country in the process of upgrading service weapons among its armed forces. We’ve noted in the last several years, there’s been a big push by the Trump administration to upgrade service weapons in the US Army. 

    Several months ago, the Pentagon doubled its purchase of a new anti-personnel precision rifle.

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    In January, Special Operation Command granted Sig Sauer with a safety certification for the new MG 338 Machine Gun, 338 Norma Mag Ammunition, and Next Generation Suppressors, which means US Special Forces are about to receive a badass advanced machine gun. 

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    Late last year, Textron Systems’ AAI Corporation delivered their next-generation machine gun to the Army that chambers a telescoped round between 6.5 mm and 6.8 mm and is expected to be the future replacement for the M16 rifle, M4 carbine, and M249 light machine gun.

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    It just so happens countries in the Western world are beefing up their military forces as the global economy plunges into economic depression. Is a military conflict ahead?  

  • Europe's Non-Hamiltonian Muddle
    Europe’s Non-Hamiltonian Muddle

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa via Project Syndicate,

    Although any joint EU action should be welcomed, the current COVID-19 response plan hardly amounts to a radical break with business as usual. Far from a long-awaited embrace of debt mutualization, the newly proposed European recovery fund risks being both politically unpalatable and economically inadequate.

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    This past week, the European Commission unveiled a plan to help European countries manage the Great Depression-scale shock from COVID-19. Building on a recent Franco-German proposal, the Commission is calling for a €750 billion ($834 billion) recovery fund (€500 billion of which would be distributed as grants, and €250 billion as loans).

    The money issued through this so-called “Next Generation EU” plan will flow through European Union programs, in order to achieve the Commission’s goals, including its green and digital economy agenda. The Commission will raise funds in the market by issuing long-term bonds, and their efforts will be backed by a suggested increase in new taxes, such as those on greenhouse-gas emissions, digital services, and other areas of supranational commerce.

    Though we are among the few commentators who anticipated that the EU would offer a plan much larger than what most market participants and pundits expected, we also would advise European policymakers to remain realistic about what can be achieved at the moment. Celebrations of the EU’s long-awaited “Hamiltonian moment” of debt mutualization are premature.

    As matters stand, the EU is still an incomplete transfer union in which resources (human, physical, financial) so far move from the periphery to the center – which is to say, to the United Kingdom or Germany. Ironically, one of these poles of attraction, the UK, has decided to leave the EU, ostensibly to end the flow of migrants into its economy. With Brexit, which officially occurred on January 31, the EU has already literally begun to disintegrate.

    Optimists believe that, with the UK out, a more cohesive EU can finally emerge. But this prediction seems too rosy. After all, the UK wasn’t so much a hurdle to integration as an excuse for other reluctant member states to avoid closer ties. For example, the UK hasn’t been the one blocking the European Deposit Insurance Scheme, which is needed to complete the eurozone banking union; that honor falls to Germany.

    With the rise of populist parties across Europe, it has long been clear that the next major crisis would constitute an existential threat to the EU. The EU now must demonstrate that it is up to the challenge of completing its integration process. Otherwise, it could confront a “Jeffersonian moment” that returns it to some form of confederation with only limited shared sovereignty.

    Facing the abyss, France and Germany have devised a plan to mitigate the pandemic’s devastating economic fallout. But while their proposal has its merits, Alexander Hamilton would be unsatisfied – and rightly so. For starters, the envisaged bond issuance would not come with a “joint and several guarantee,” and thus would not constitute genuine debt mutualization. Financier George Soros’s proposal for EU perpetual bonds, or Consols, would alleviate this problem, but it would not solve it. And, in any case, if the funds do not become available by this summer, it may already be too late for hard-hit countries such as Italy, Greece, and Spain, which will be facing a dreadful tourist season on top of it all.

    More to the point, the distrust between the EU’s “frugal four” (Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden) and the allegedly “profligate” southern countries (including Italy, Spain, and Greece) remains so deep that it is frankly difficult to imagine any long-term solution being adopted. A recent ruling by Germany’s own constitutional court sent a powerful signal to European institutions about what to expect on the road ahead. Though the decision eventually will be overruled by the European Court of Justice and ignored by the European Central Bank, the ECB nonetheless faces political limits to its actions.

    Germany will either have to offer a partial EU fiscal backstop with its own taxpayers’ money or allow EU institutions to provide a sufficient mutual backstop (starting with the eurozone budget) for the entire monetary union. If the proposed EU recovery fund were capable of revitalizing the eurozone budget – particularly its never-agreed stabilization function – that by itself would represent a significant achievement.

    In signing on to a joint plan with France, Germany presumably realized that it could not simply say “nein” to both a monetary and a fiscal backstop (that is, the budding fiscal and transfer union). Both are needed for the euro to survive. But even with backstops in place, critical questions would remain unresolved, not least the sustainability of Italy’s surging public debt. Italy would have to make massive strides to restore growth and competitiveness now that its comparative advantage in tourism has been so severely compromised.

    Overall, although any common European approach to the COVID-19 crisis is a step in the right direction (and certainly better than no action), there is little reason to expect the EU to break from its long tradition of merely muddling through. If European leaders can prevent an immediate breakdown of the EU and euro projects, they at least will have averted the enormous economic, social, and political costs that would come from further rapid disintegration. But a net response that reflects the old inertia will leave Europe unequipped for the post-COVID world, where other major continental economies – the United States, China, and India – will make the most important geo-strategic and economic decisions.

  • CJ Hopkins: Mainstream Media Has Been Conditioning You For This Uprising For Four Years
    CJ Hopkins: Mainstream Media Has Been Conditioning You For This Uprising For Four Years

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 06/02/2020 – 00:10

    Authored by CJ Hokpins via The Consent Factory,

    The Minneapolis Putsch

    Well, it looks like the Resistance’s long-anticipated “Second Civil War” has finally begun … more or less exactly on cue. Rioting has broken out across the nation. People are looting and burning stores and attacking each other in the streets. Robocops are beating, tear-gassing, and shooting people with non-lethal projectiles. State National Guards have been deployed, curfews imposed, “emergencies” declared. Secret Servicemen are fighting back angry hordes attempting to storm the White House. Trump is tweeting from an “underground bunker.” Opportunist social media pundits on both sides of the political spectrum are whipping people up into white-eyed frenzies. Americans are at each other’s throats, divided by identity politics, consumed by rage, hatred, and fear.

    Things couldn’t be going better for the Resistance if they had scripted it themselves.

    Actually, they did kind of script it themselves. Not the murder of poor George Floyd, of course. Racist police have been murdering Black people for as long as there have been racist police. No, the Resistance didn’t manufacture racism. They just spent the majority of the last four years creating and promoting an official narrative which casts most Americans as “white supremacists” who literally elected Hitler president, and who want to turn the country into a racist dictatorship.

    According to this official narrative, which has been relentlessly disseminated by the corporate media, the neoliberal intelligentsia, the culture industry, and countless hysterical, Trump-hating loonies, the Russians put Donald Trump in office with those DNC emails they never hacked and some division-sowing Facebook ads that supposedly hypnotized Black Americans into refusing to come out and vote for Clinton. Putin purportedly ordered this personally, as part of his plot to “destroy democracy.” The plan was always for President Hitler to embolden his white-supremacist followers into launching the “RaHoWa,” or the “Boogaloo,” after which Trump would declare martial law, dissolve the legislature, and pronounce himself Führer. Then they would start rounding up and murdering the Jews, and the Blacks, and Mexicans, and other minorities, according to this twisted liberal fantasy.

    I’ve been covering the roll-out and dissemination of this official narrative since 2016, and have documented much of it in my essays, so I won’t reiterate all that here. Let’s just say, I’m not exaggerating, much. After four years of more or less constant conditioning, millions of Americans believe this fairy tale, despite the fact that there is absolutely zero evidence whatsoever to support it. Which is not exactly a mystery or anything. It would be rather surprising if they didn’t believe it. We’re talking about the most formidable official propaganda machine in the history of official propaganda machines.

    And now the propaganda is paying off. The protesting and rioting that typically follows the murder of an unarmed Black person by the cops has mushroomed into “an international uprising” cheered on by the corporate media, corporations, and the liberal establishment, who don’t normally tend to support such uprisings, but they’ve all had a sudden change of heart, or spiritual or political awakening, and are down for some serious property damage, and looting, and preventative self-defense, if that’s what it takes to bring about justice, and to restore America to the peaceful, prosperous, non-white-supremacist paradise it was until the Russians put Donald Trump in office.

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    In any event, the Resistance media have now dropped their breathless coverage of the non-existent Corona-Holocaust to breathlessly cover the “revolution.” The American police, who just last week were national heroes for risking their lives to beat up, arrest, and generally intimidate mask-less “lockdown violators” are now the fascist foot soldiers of the Trumpian Reich. The Nike corporation produced a commercial urging people to smash the windows of their Nike stores and steal their sneakers. Liberal journalists took to Twitter, calling on rioters to “burn that shit down!” … until the rioters reached their gated community and started burning down their local Starbucks. Hollywood celebrities are masking up and going full-black bloc, and doing legal support. Chelsea Clinton is teaching children about David and the Racist Goliath. John Cusack’s bicycle was attacked by the pigs. I haven’t checked on Rob Reiner yet, but I assume he is assembling Molotov cocktails in the basement of a Resistance safe house somewhere in Hollywood Hills.

    Look, I’m not saying the neoliberal Resistance orchestrated or staged these riots, or “denying the agency” of the folks in the streets. Whatever else is happening out there, a lot of very angry Black people are taking their frustration out on the cops, and on anyone and anything else that represents racism and injustice to them.

    This happens in America from time to time. America is still a racist society. Most African-Americans are descended from slaves. Legal racial discrimination was not abolished until the 1960s, which isn’t that long ago in historical terms. I was born in the segregated American South, with the segregated schools, and all the rest of it. I don’t remember it — I was born in 1961 — but I do remember the years right after it. The South didn’t magically change overnight in July of 1964. Nor did the North’s variety of racism, which, yes, is subtler, but no less racist.

    So I have no illusions about racism in America. But I’m not really talking about racism in America. I’m talking about how racism in America has been cynically instrumentalized, not by the Russians, but by the so-called Resistance, in order to delegitimize Trump and, more importantly, everyone who voted for him, as a bunch of white supremacists and racists.

    Fomenting racial division has been the Resistance’s strategy from the beginning.

    A quote attributed to Joseph Goebbels, “accuse the other side of that which you are guilty,” is particularly apropos in this case. From the moment Trump won the Republican nomination, the corporate media and the rest of the Resistance have been telling us the man is literally Hitler, and that his plan is to foment racial hatred among his “white supremacist base,” and eventually stage some “Reichstag” event, declare martial law and pronounce himself dictator. They’ve been telling us this story over and over, on television, in the liberal press, on social media, in books, movies, and everywhere else they could possibly tell it.

    So, before you go out and join the “uprising,” take a look at the headlines today, turn on CNN or MSNBC, and think about that for just a minute. I don’t mean to spoil the party, but they’ve preparing you for this for the last four years.

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    Not you Black folks. I’m not talking to you. I wouldn’t presume to tell you what to do. I’m talking to white folks like myself, who are cheering on the rioting and looting, and are coming out to “help” you with it, but who will be back home in their gated communities when the ashes have cooled, and the corporate media are gone, and the cops return to “police” your neighborhoods.

    OK, and this is where I have to restate (for the benefit of my partisan readers) that I’m not a fan of Donald Trump, and that I think he’s a narcissistic ass clown, and a glorified con man, and … blah blah blah, because so many people have been so polarized by insane propaganda and mass hysteria that they can’t even read or think anymore, and so just scan whatever articles they encounter to see whose “side” the author is on and then mindlessly celebrate or excoriate it.

    If you’re doing that, let me help you out … whichever side you’re on, I’m not on it.

    I realize that’s extremely difficult for a lot of folks to comprehend these days, which is part of the point I’ve been trying to make. I’ll try again, as plainly as I can.

    America is still a racist country, but America is no more racist today than it was when Barack Obama was president. A lot of American police are brutal, but no more brutal than when Obama was president. America didn’t radically change the day Donald Trump was sworn into office. All that has changed is the official narrative. And it will change back as soon as Trump is gone and the ruling classes have no further use for it.

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    And that will be the end of the War on Populism, and we will switch back to the War on Terror, or maybe the Brave New Pathologized Normal … or whatever Orwellian official narrative the folks at GloboCap have in store for us.

  • 37% Of Americans Say They Would Give Up Porn For Better Sleep During COVID Crisis
    37% Of Americans Say They Would Give Up Porn For Better Sleep During COVID Crisis

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 23:50

    Perhaps the most widely-discussed psychological phenomenon of the coronavirus crisis is the stress and lack of sleep that have led to, among other consequences, a surfeit of suicides. Millions of Americans have also self-reported experiencing vivid “stress dreams”. Among them is host of CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Joe Kernan.

    As brands and marketing strategists parse what this means for consumer attitudes, one recent survey answered by 1,000 American adults during the month of May, more than a month into the lockdown, found that products claiming to help with sleep might soon experience a mini-boom, as millions of Americans struggle to develop the discipline often required to successfully work from home.

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    The study mentioned above asked respondents what they would give up for a year of good sleep; some of the answers might surprise you.

    For example…the survey by SleepStandards found:

    • 37% of Americans would give up sex or porn
    • 41% of Americans would give up social media
    • 40% of Americans would give up alcohol and smoking
    • 39% would give up video games
    • 26% would give up steaming services such as Netflix or Hulu
    • 21.5% would become a vegetarian for a year

    Some key findings from the survey: the premium Americans would be willing to pay for a perfect night’s sleep has risen.

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    Ironically, 41% say they would give up social media, and 26% say they would give up Netflix; many sleep specialists recommend that giving up both activities – at least in the hours before bedtime – actually would help with their sleep.

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    The average American only sleeps 6.6 hours a night…

     

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    …and as productivity continues to stagnate, we suspect products aiming to boost sleep “efficiency” – that is, helping people feel well-rested, despite getting fewer than 7 full hours of sleep – or products that simply promote good sleep hygiene, will soon be all the rage.

  • Ready For War? Largest Chinese Base Has Full-Scale Model Of Taiwan's Presidential Palace
    Ready For War? Largest Chinese Base Has Full-Scale Model Of Taiwan’s Presidential Palace

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 23:30

    Via AlMasdarNews.com,

    Satellite photos released over the weekend revealed the presence of a full-scale model of the Taiwanese presidential palace at a Chinese military baseThe Drive reported.

    In the satellite photos, the images revealed that China’s Zhurihe Combined Tactics Training Base, which is the largest of its kind, has a replica of Taiwan’s presidential palace so that the soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could conduct storming exercises.

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    Mock Taipei Presidential Office Building as previously seen in Chinese state media. 

    While conducting urban warfare in mock towns is standard procedure for most militaries, the replica of the Taiwanese presidential palace appears to have a more nationalistic twist, as tensions remain high between Beijing and Taipei.

    The model of the of the presidential palace even has the red and white facade of the building from which Taiwanese President Tsai Ing Wen runs the autonomous island.

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    The real Presidential Office building in Taipei, via Wiki Commons.

    The front of the mock-up can also be seen very briefly in the below promotional video from 2015 which, according to The War Zone, would have been two years after the structure was built.

    Here’s the prior archived state media footage:

    Since the election of Tsai in 2016, the Taiwanese government has drifted further away from any potential reunification between Taiwan and China.

    This has culminated in strained ties between the two governments, with Taiwan increasing its military capabilities, thanks in large part to the United States.

    Satellite photos recently captured by Planet Labs and republished in The Drive:

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    At the start of 2020, the Taiwanese military carried out a large-scale exercise on island against a potential Chinese invasion force.

    This exercise sent a message to Beijing that Taipei is prepared for a potential war with China, should diplomatic efforts collapse.

  • Horrific Scene As Car Plows Into Dozens Of Police Amid Rioting In Buffalo, New York
    Horrific Scene As Car Plows Into Dozens Of Police Amid Rioting In Buffalo, New York

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 23:11

    A shocking scene has unfolded Monday night from the streets of Buffalo, New York as police attempted to clear rioters and presumably looters from a city street. 

    Video captured from a protest live feed shows a car plowing into a large group of police and what appear to be state troopers, and SWAT or possibly national guard soldiers.  

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    The group of police are seen initially clearing the street with weapons drawn, and gunshots are heard in the background in an intensifying situation. 

    Suddenly the group of police attempt to jump out of the way as what appears an older model SUV rushes straight into the group

    Another angle to the attack shows the car gaining speed as officers realize it’s headed straight for them, most dashing out of the way at the last moment:

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    At least one officer is directly crushed under the vehicle in the graphic footage, and it appears multiple are down, with others rushing to aid and pull them from the street. 

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    AP has confirmed the video, with White House correspondent Zeke Miller writing, “Video shows SUV plowing into officers at Floyd protest in Buffalo, New York, running over at least 1, then speeding away.”

    The group of clearly rattled police then attempt return fire as the vehicle rushes away from the scene. It’s unclear if the driver was apprehended.

    Though there was no initial confirmation of the horrific and clearly intentional attack on police via Buffalo Police social media accounts, the footage is now going viral.

    The man who took the original video from a nearby balcony, who appears to be Yemeni-American based on the Facebook page hosting the live feed, expresses disbelief in Arabic and utters a prayer. 

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    The attack happened at the corner of Decker Street and Bailey, across from an Autozone which is partially seen in the video.

    It comes as attacks on police become more brazen and violent nationwide, and as the mayhem spirals out of control – further as President Trump has threatened military deployments to American streets to quell the violence

  • Which Industries Are Suffering The Biggest Job Losses?
    Which Industries Are Suffering The Biggest Job Losses?

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 23:10

    With trader attention turning to Friday’s May jobs report, where consensus expects an 8 million increase in unemployment after April’s record 20 million, we took a closer look at which industries are set to report the biggest job losses.

    To do that, we looked at the weekly initial jobless claims report where many states release claims on an industry level, which as BofA writes, can be used to think about how national payrolls will evolve. While initial claims only reflect outflows, they are still a crucial component for the net job growth trajectory and therefore useful as a leading signal according to BofA’s economists. As a result, collecting and aggregating these data allows to create proxies that provide a read on national conditions.

    To extrapolate the bigger picture, the bank calculates the % change in cumulative initial claims for each industry during the relevant weeks for the April and May jobs reports, apply that to April payroll growth, and then scales to the total NFP forecast of -8.0 million. The exercise suggests that job losses in accommodation & food services-the most pandemic-sensitive sector-could be in the 2.5mn range in May, bringing three month total losses to 9.3mn. Meanwhile, we could see more than 500k job losses in each of the retail trade, healthcare / social assistance, administrative/support services, arts/entertainment/recreation, and public administration sectors. While not scientific, as these remain rough estimates, the table below helps give a sense of the magnitude of the pain that each sector could experience in Friday’s report.

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    In addition to the aggregate level data, the weekly trajectory of these industry claims data are also insightful.

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    For most of the sectors, initial claims follow the broad trend of a peaking in early April followed by a gradual decline. However, initial claims are trending sideways in professional /scientific / technical services and management of companies/enterprises – two of the major sub-sectors of professional/business services. Even worse, initial claims are rising and reaching new highs in the educational services, information, finance / insurance, and public administration sectors. Thus, in several sectors we are not seeing improvement, which according to BofA “argues for more persistent labor pain and a more delayed recovery.”

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    So what will the recovery look like?

    According to BofA’s Alex Lin, as states are gradually re-opening, focus is shifting towards what kind of recovery we can expect. A key question will be how many laid off workers will be rehired? At this stage, consumer expectations remain optimistic- an April 27-May 4 Washington Post/Ipsos poll found that 77% of laid off workers expect to hired back to their old job. However, the reality may prove grimmer given such an uncertain outlook. A vaccine for the virus may still be two years away, and businesses cannot discount the risk of another wave of infections as the economy reopens, which would slow the economy.  Meanwhile, a recent paper by Barrero, Bloom, and Davis argue that 42% of jobs lost will be permanent which would be a concerning outcome.

  • New Ebola Outbreak Kills Four In West Congo
    New Ebola Outbreak Kills Four In West Congo

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 23:01

    Health officials have confirmed a second Ebola outbreak in Congo, the World Health Organization said Monday, adding yet another health crisis for a country already battling COVID-19 and the world’s largest measles outbreak, according to the AP. Congo also has yet to declare an official end to Ebola in its troubled east, where at least 2,243 people have died since an epidemic began there in August 2018.

    The United Nations Children’s Fund said that five people, including a 15-year-old girl, have died of Ebola in a fresh outbreak of the virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo; a total of nine cases total have been reported.

    “Four additional people who contracted the virus – all contacts of the deceased and including the child of one of the fatal cases – are being treated in an isolation unit at the Wangata Hospital in Mbandaka,” UNICEF said in a statement. “The deaths occurred between the 18th and 30th of May but they were only confirmed as Ebola-related yesterday.”

    The country’s Health Minister Eteni Longondo confirmed that “There are already four deaths and four suspected cases” who are still alive.

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    An Ebola health worker is shown at a treatment center in Beni, Eastern Congo on April 16, 2019; Photo: AP.

    Earlier on Monday, embattled WHO Director-General and and Chinese PR spin guru Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus tweeted news that six cases had been reported in Mbandaka, in the country’s northwest Equateur province. It’s the country’s 11th outbreak of the potentially deadly virus, which is passed by bodily fluids and has a fatality rate of anywhere between 25% and 90%, depending on the outbreak.

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    The Democratic Republic of Congo has still been struggling to end an outbreak that started in 2018 in the eastern part of the country, in which 3,406 cases have been reported, with 2,243 deaths, according to WHO. There has not been a new case in the past 21 days in that outbreak and since Ebola has a 21-day incubation period, that particular outbreak may be under control but WHO waits for two full incubation periods, or 42 days, to be sure before determining that an outbreak has ended.

    “The announcement comes as a long, difficult and complex Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo is in its final phase, while the country also battles COVID-19 and the world’s largest measles outbreak,” WHO said in a statement. The central African country has reported 3,195 cases of coronavirus and 72 deaths. By far the worst epidemic affecting the DRC is measles, which has infected nearly 370,000 people and killed 6,779 since 2019.

    The Ebola virus lives in bats, and WHO says new outbreaks can be expected in the Democratic Republic of Congo. By far the largest epidemic of Ebola was in 2014-2016 in the West African countries of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. More than 28,000 people were infected in that epidemic and more than 11,000 of them died.

    If that wasn’t enough, Covid-19 already has touched 7 of Congo’s 25 provinces, with more than 3,000 confirmed cases and 72 deaths. However, like many African countries Congo has conducted extremely limited testing, and observers fear the true toll may be far higher.

    There’s more: while Ebola and COVID-19 have drawn far more international attention, measles has killed more Congolese than those diseases combined. WHO said there have been 369,520 measles cases and 6,779 deaths since 2019.

    “This quadruple threat could prove lethal for millions of children and their families,” said Anne-Marie Connor, national director in Congo for the aid organization World Vision.

  • Exposing The Media's "Distraction" Deception
    Exposing The Media’s “Distraction” Deception

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 22:50

    Authored by Tom Bevan via RealClearPolitics.com,

    I’ve been in the news business for over 20 years now, and among the many things I’ve learned about how the media complex operates is this: One of the favorite tricks journalists and politicians use to control the focus of viewers and push the media’s preferred narrative is to label other stories as “distractions.”

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    This is especially true when it comes to President Trump. In the recent past, most mainstream media outlets have been obsessed with the pandemic, and his leadership during this crisis. That is certainly understandable. In some ways, it’s the biggest news story in a generation, with a large death toll and global implications about governmental control over the economy, international relations, and the very idea of life-sustaining social interactions between human beings.

    But it’s not the only story. And this is where the sleight of hand comes in. Among Democrats and many liberal journalists, it is an article of faith that Trump’s handling of the pandemic has been a disaster. Keeping the focus on Trump’s failures has become a priority. In this framework, anything the president does or says that is not related to the pandemic is labeled a “distraction.”

    Nancy Pelosi played this card yesterday, responding to a question about Trump’s proposed crackdown on social media companies.

    “I think it’s just typical President Trump,” said the House speaker.

    “A distraction. More than 100,000 people have died from the coronavirus. This administration has been a failure in terms of what we’re doing testing, tracing, treating and isolating people. The president has been a terrible example of not wearing a mask, and belittling those who do. So anything he does is a distraction from the problem at hand.

    Just a few weeks ago, any discussion of the troubling Justice Department treatment  of Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn was declared a “distraction” by a flurry of reporters and media outlets. CNN has been particularly fond of the “distraction” theme in recent weeks, as you can see from the following headlines:

    10 things Trump would like to distract you from focusing on” 

    Trump and right-wing media distract from bad virus news with alternate reality” 

    Trump goes on wild tweetstorm to distract from Fauci testimony”  

    Notice that when Trump tweets or comments about a subject or story that the media approves of, such as he did with the George Floyd case Thursday, it’s never labeled a distraction. Only stories on subjects in which the press disagrees with the administration earn the “distraction” distinction.  

    If this feels familiar, that’s because it’s been going on since the day Trump took office. From the beginning of his presidency, as the Russia collusion stories began peppering the landscape, journalists and Democrats used the technique to make sure audiences stayed focused on what they believed was the most important story in history: the Trump campaign’s supposed collusion with Vladimir Putin. 

    Over the last three years media outlets have dismissed dozens of presidential statements and initiatives as efforts by Trump to distract the public from the Russia collusion story or special prosecutor Robert Mueller’s investigation, including tweeting about Iranpulling John Brennan’s security clearancestarting a cold war with Chinameeting with Kim Jong-Un, and even slapping tariffs on Mexico.  

    The collusion story turned out to be false. So what exactly was Trump trying to distract you from? The answer is he wasn’t.  

    Donald Trump is, by his very nature, an outrageous, impulsive, torrential news-making machine. He seemingly tweets about every thought that enters his head, from consequential policy pronouncements to strange conspiracy theories and petty schoolyard taunts. But it’s up to you, the citizens and voters, and not the media gatekeepers, to decide what is a “distraction” and what isn’t.  

  • COVID-19 Exposed The Truth: Laws, Rules, & Regulations Are Futile, Humans Were Born Free
    COVID-19 Exposed The Truth: Laws, Rules, & Regulations Are Futile, Humans Were Born Free

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 22:10

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    The one good thing to come out of the COVID-19 panic is the increasing awareness of the general public.  The scamdemic has exposed the futility of most rules, laws, and regulations, as people have found out they don’t have to obey any ruler or politician because they were born free.

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    Regulations that needlessly restrict liberty, reduce innovation, and reduce Americans’ access to care are being suspended all over the country, and not because politicians woke up and decided to cede some power.  Instead, Americans have decided to disobey the laws into nonexistence. People are finally figuring out that ink on paper cannot control them useless they allow it to.  Since March, Isabelle Morales of Townhall has compiled over500 such examples of regulations that are nothing more than commands to the people the government wants to enslave. These regulations are being suspended in order to provide relief for care providers, hospitals, businesses, and citizens during the coronavirus plandemic.

    Governors and other politicians recognize that the mere enforcement of these rules and laws places a heavy burden on some of the most important markets in the United States. Hence, their suspension is deemed necessary in these times of hardship. Ultimately, none of these regulations should have been created in the first place. Under other circumstances, the effects of these regulations go unnoticed because the strength of the market covers the government’s tracks. –Isabelle Morales of Townhall

    Often, the markets will survive in spite of regulations, however, people are beginning to realize these rules were not created in their best interest, but in the interest of the state. Once people disobey in larger numbers, they will fully awaken to the fact that they’ve been controlled for their entire lives.  The fact that these regulations should have never been created in the first place, is a moot point. What’s important is that people are finally realizing that the government isn’t there to help them and protect them. It’s there to control and manipulate them, with the help of the mainstream media, of course.

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    The only way out of this has always been, and will always be civil disobedience. It doesn’t matter how many rules, laws, or regulations, the government creates or eliminates because free people operate solely on their own morality. Free people already know they have no obligation to obey a command, especially ones that violate their individual God-given human rights.

  • More Hedge Funds Move To Outsource Trading As COVID-19 Crisis Revives 2-Way Market Swings
    More Hedge Funds Move To Outsource Trading As COVID-19 Crisis Revives 2-Way Market Swings

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 21:50

    Most people who haven’t worked in the financial services industry probably wouldn’t understand the distinction between being a ‘hedge fund analyst’ and a ‘hedge fund trader’. But the two rolls are completely different. And while one of them – the analyst – might benefit from a shift in skill-set preferences and the ongoing retrenchment in sell-side research shops, the other – the trader – is increasingly seeing their jobs outsourced to a handful of major sell-side players who are offering a new service effectively allowing clients (ie counterparties whom these banks are also trading against) to outsource trading operations.

    And according to a Monday report published by Bloomberg, the coronavirus outbrek is reportedly accelerating this shift toward ‘outsourced’ trading roles in the hedge fund world.

    At this point, only the largest hedge funds even bother to build their own in-house operations. Staffing at smaller and boutique shops is typically no frills: limited to only a small team of analysts and maybe some researchers, led by a portfolio manager or two (or more). This is intentional: it allows star PMs to hog those juicy fees.

    But in the age of COVID, even the bigger shops are outsourcing, and smaller firms are expanding their use of these services, as wealthy investors demand that money managers keep one eye on the exit at all times. Recent crashes of retail platforms like Robinhood and Charles Schwab are worrying reminders about what can happen to retail investors when a real market panic gets going.

    Here’s more on the trend from BBG:

    As the pandemic unleashes unprecedented operational risks, asset managers are joining peers who have flocked to these services in recent years to keep up with new technologies and to cut costs — while liquidity gets ever-more fragmented.

    Among the more established names, Outset Global LLP says its client list has grown 45% in the year through April. Tora Trading Services Ltd. says sales increased 105% in the first three months of the year from the prior period, as existing clients expanded usage and new ones signed on. Tourmaline Partners LLC, an outsourcing firm based in Stamford, Connecticut, just clinched a majority investment from a private equity firm that will help expansion plans.

    While smaller firms often outsource all of these responsibilities to their prime brokers, larger firms with in-house operations are increasingly outsourcing more to these upstart shops and established players.

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    At this point, some of you might be wondering: what’s the difference between offering prime brokerage services, and trading services? These trading operations don’t just execute buy and sell orders; the services they offer are often so comprehensive, they can allow clients to “set it and forget it” – leaving specific instructions with traders to execute in Asian or European hours while traders in New York are asleep – or vice versa.

    It’s part of a broader shift in trading that has allowed greater levels of automation to creep into the market. Even if you’re skilled enough to program your own trading algorithms, wouldn’t you sleep better knowing a human was somewhere nearby, keeping one eye on the tape?

    While some smaller funds opt to outsource entirely, many larger managers use such services to supplement their own operations, like buying and selling Asian stocks when their traders in New York are asleep.

    Unlike agency or prime broking, outsourced players conduct relationships with the sell side on behalf of the client and offer more comprehensive services including monitoring exposures and providing market color.

    “It does appear there has been increased interest in outsourced trading,” said Shane Swanson, an analyst at consultancy Greenwich Associates. “That does go hand-in-hand with the explosion in technology we’ve seen across the past 10, 15 years — in particular in how that has been utilized as part of this response to the Covid crisis.”

    He calls the recent turmoil a “proof of concept” for outsourcing for a host of new managers.

    Market analytics firms told BBG that some of the biggest players in this space – Cantor Fitzgerald and Jeffries – have seen their trading businesses expand by more than 45% over the last year.

    Outsourced traders essentially act as a middleman between the buy side and sell side in handling trading flows. Some outsourced trading divisions are run inside bigger financial services firms, like Jefferies Financial Group Inc., while others operate as small, standalone shops. Their pitch to asset managers: Ensuring best execution with an extensive network of brokerages and high-speed technology, which can be expensive for smaller funds to maintain on their own.

    “We’ve seen folks add our outsourced trading team just to be able to say that they have systems in place and a set-up in place should their traders get sick with Covid,” said Bobby Croswell, head of U.S. outsourced trading at Cowen Inc. The firm’s outsourcing revenue more than doubled in the first quarter compared with the same period in 2019.

    Volatility has undoubtedly accelerated this trend, which is widely expected to continue.

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    On the subject of whether this trend is a waste of money, or an overreaction to the recent shock selloff, we suspect all the 20- and 30-something year-old traders running the market these days could probably use a little hand-holding. As far as market stability is concerned, it’s probably not a bad thing.

    In other new, Bloomberg says, stock market participants want a reduction in the world’s longest trading hours, which they say can improve liquidity and industry diversity, according to the results of a London Stock Exchange survey.

  • Crypto Analyst Releases Stock-To-Flow Model Indicator For Bitcoin Bull Run
    Crypto Analyst Releases Stock-To-Flow Model Indicator For Bitcoin Bull Run

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 21:30

    Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

    Updating its popular BTC price model, crypto analyst PlanB predicts the cryptocurrency could see a rally to $100K by 2021.

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    image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

    Crypto analyst PlanB released a key indicator for its stock-to-flow price prediction model which could signal a Bitcoin bull run to $100,000 by 2021 has just begun.

    PlanB confirmed on Twitter on May 31 that the red dot — indicating a price increase — was now present in its stock-to-flow (S2F) model, a price prediction model for Bitcoin (BTC).

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    The S2F model treats BTC as a commodity like gold or silver, evaluating the existing supply of the cryptocurrency against the amount mined. 

    Though many have predicted BTC bullish behavior in the wake of the May 11 rewards halving, PlanB’s model marks when a run would occur with a red dot. Under this model, the chart shows a BTC price of $100,000 by the end of 2021. 

    Stock-to-flow model

    Cointelegraph reported in April that PlanB had used its new cross-asset S2F model — S2FX — to predict a BTC price of $288,000 by 2024. Crypto analyst Harold Christopher Burger used the same data to forecast a rally to $1 million by 2025.

    The S2F model does have its detractors. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has expressed some reservations about stock-to-flow, calling it part of the 95% of crypto articles that are “post-hoc rationalized bullshit.”

    As of this writing, BTC is priced in the $9,400s, having fallen 2% in the last 24 hours.

  • Looting Breaks Out In LA, NYC As Trump Threatens To Call In "1000s Of Heavily-Armed Soldiers"
    Looting Breaks Out In LA, NYC As Trump Threatens To Call In “1000s Of Heavily-Armed Soldiers”

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 21:28

    Protest/Riot/Looting Feed here:

    Summary

    • Trump threatens to mobilize US troops if Governors do not get control

    • Curfews enacted across all major cities

    • Protests/Riots spreading to suburbs

    • Looting has begun in LA/NYC

    *  *  *

    Update (2130ET): Looting has begun in NYC and LA as curfew nears and protests/looting has spread to the suburbs around the nation.

    High-end stores like Bloomingdales, Gucci, Nike Soho, Chanel, Tory Burch, Kate Spade were all vandalized. Best Buy in Union Square and several drug stores were also hit.

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    It appears Nike’s virtue-signaling ad failed to stop their store getting looted…

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    New York’s luxury shopping area is all boarded up…

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    And some looters actually faced consequences…

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    This is what police are facing (watch the first few seconds carefully):

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    The looting and protesting has reached various suburbs including Walnut Creek, CA (around 20 miles from Oakland)…

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    *  *  *

    Update (2100ET): Trump is facing flack from his critics for allegedly deploying militarized police to clear out peaceful demonstrators from a church near the white house so he could hold a photo op with a bible.

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    The bishop the DC Episcopal Church just told WaPo that she’s furious with the White House – apparently the church wasn’t told about that they would be gassing demonstrators. Or, at least that’s what they’re telling the press.

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    Footage from the scene outside.

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    Trump’s political opponents are jumping on the outrage bandwagon.

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    To top it off: The top of “The Huffington Post”…

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    But at least the press was there to ask the tough questions.

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    Meanwhile, millions of iPhones across NYC just buzzed with the following alert message…

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    …awhat looks to be a fourth straight night of violence begins with looting and violence in LA and New York.

    As the sun set, the looting started once again as protests entered their fifth day in NYC, and fourth day of protracted violence and looting.

    Businesses on 5th and Madison avenues were spotted quickly throwing up plywood to prevent looting on Monday night.

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    In a memorable scene, an emotional member of the NYPD brass insisted that “agitators” were taking a “peaceful movement” and destroying it from the inside out. He also took a knee with peaceful demonstrators in brooklyn after they worked to “deescalate a standoff”.

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    High-end stores like Bloomingdales, Gucci, Nike Soho, Chanel, Tory Burch, Kate Spade were all vandalized. Best Buy in Union Square and several drug stores were also hit.

    Attempted looters clashed with police as vandals smashed into a boutique tea shop in the middle of Rockefeller Center.

    In Hollywood, reporters claimed the LAPD response to what appeared to be “organized” looting was “much quicker” – following excessive press coverage of looting that went virtually unchallenged.

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    That’s almost ironic, since Hollywood celebrities are the ones donating money to help bail vandals and rioters out of jail indiscriminately with more peaceful demonstrators arrested for civil disobedience. We doubt small business owners in the city have the same level of sympathy after last night.

    In Philly, a radio producer documented a scene at a pro-cop anti-looter “protest” that was on the verge of turning into a vigilante posse, while a crowd of “I can’t breath”-shouting demonstrators formed opposite them. Throwing of projectiles ensued, and several arrests were made.

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    A Reuters reporter was attacked in DC.

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    By the looks of it, the agitators are back on the streets and getting ready to push Trump to make good on his threat.

    * * *

    Update (19000ET):  President Trump announced from the White House Rose Garden Monday evening that he planned to mobilize “all available federal resources, civilian and military” to put an end to violent protests across the country, while blaming the outbursts on “professional anarchists, looters, criminals, antifa” whom he described as “domestic terrorists” bringing widespread harm to the nation.

    As expected following remarks from Press Sec McEnany earlier, President Trump insisted during a brief speech that he would send in military personnel to quell violence and looting if governors failed to act. He also insisted that his administration was committed to justice for Floyd and his family, and that Trump’s administration is “an ally” of peaceful protesters.

    “I am dispatching thousands and thousands of heavily armed soldiers,” Trump said Monday at the White House, clearly seeking to reassure terrified business owners and members of the community in areas hard-hit by the coronavirus and the riots that he would uphold his duty to maintain order.

    Trump insisted his heavy handed response had nothing to do with suppressing the right to peacefully protest.

    “We cannot allow an ‘angry mob” drown out peaceful protesters,” Trump said, describing the looting and attacks on journalists and bystanders as “acts of domestic terrorism”.

    In an implicit reference to New York, Trump said he would send in federal troops if cities failed to deal with any violent uprisings. “If cities refuse…I will deploy the united states military and quickly solve the problem for them,” Trump said.

    “We are ending the riots and lawlessness, that has spread throughout our country. We will end it now,” Trump said.

    He finished his remarks just before a 7pmET curfew took effect in the capital city.

    According to the FT, insiders said Trump aides had debated whether the president should address the nation. Some argued that he needed to try to bring the country together, while others said he would achieve little and would end up looking weak if the violence continued – meaning that Trump likely means what he says. After all, in his mind, his reelection prospects might depend on how “tough” he looks this week.

    * * *

    Update (1815ET): After President Trump announced plans for an impromptu address to the nation, caving to Republican lawmakers and Fox News hosts who had been pushing him to deliver a presidential address to the nation from the Oval Office like his predecessor George HW Bush did after the Rodney King riots.

    Meanwhile, the Pentagon just announced that more troops are on standby ahead of what’s expected to be another night of chaos in DC.

    • PENTAGON: ADDITIONAL FORCES ON ALERT STATUS FOR DC DEPLOYMENT
    • DEFENSE OFFICIAL SAYS FORCES NOT CURRENTLY BEING DEPLOYED TO DC
    • NATIONAL GUARD TO PROTECT MONUMENTS, WHITE HOUSE: PENTAGON
    • PENTAGON: TOTAL OF 600-800 NATIONAL GUARD BEING SENT TO D.C.

    Federal agents from the DEA and other agencies have been deputized, and are reportedly stopping traffic heading into downtown DC.

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    Journalists decried President Trump’s latest calls for an escalation of force in DC.

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    In New York, the NYPD just released photos of the suspects who allegedly defaced St Patrick’s Cathedral last night.

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    After days of protests, the brother of George Floyd is leading a peaceful vigil in Minneapolis.

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    At a rally in Hartford, Conn., police adhered to a ‘community policing’ approach which has grown in popularity across the state in recent years.

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    In a report published a few hours ago, the LA Times quotes several small business owners in Santa Monica and elsewhere round LA County who claimed that police didn’t even bother to take on the looters, and instead deliberately focused their militarized weaponry on mostly peaceful protesters, who skirmished with police when provoked.

    “Where are the police? They’re nowhere. There’s not a policeman in sight. It’s just like a free-for-all,” Landy remembered thinking. “It was just shocking. I was outraged.”

    He wasn’t alone. From the Grove shopping mall and Santa Monica’s business district to downtown Long Beach, television beamed live images all weekend of looters breaking into stores and stealing merchandise – often without officers in sight.

    The mass protests over the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis police custody have proved a vexing challenge for law enforcement agencies. They have been encouraging peaceful demonstrations, but in recent days watched them devolve as looters and vandals broke off from the peaceful protesters, stealing and setting fires.

    This probably wouldn’t be a bad time to remind the world that tear gas is actually a chemical weapon that’s banned in warfare under international conventions – but is still somehow used by law enforcement from Venezuela, to Hong Kong, to the US.

    * * *

    Update (1605ET): After raising doubts about its efficacy, NY Gov. Cuomo said Monday afternoon that he would impose an 11pm curfew in NYC effective Monday evening until 5am. Mayor de Blasio announced the news after talking it over with Cuomo.

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    During Monday’s COVID presser, Cuomo said that it was possible for a well-intentioned protest movement to be “hijacked” by criminals. “Can you have a legitimate protest movement hijacked? Yes you can,” Gov. Cuomo says. “There is no doubt there are outside groups that come in to disrupt.”

    However, he added “I don’t even believe it’s the protesters. I believe there are people using the protests for their own purpose. There are people who want to sow the seeds of anarchy. Who want to disrupt.”

    Earlier, the SBA, the Sargeants Benevolent Association, one of the NYPD’s most powerful unions, criticized de Blasio for not allowing cops to do their jobs, and called on the mayor to impose a curfew and allow mounted patrols (cops on horseback).

    Around the time that Cuomo announced the news during a radio interview Monday afternoon, the SBA’s twitter account tweeted a message that was quickly taken down by twitter.

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    The governor’s office released a statement on the decision. Read it below:

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    * * *

    Update (1135ET): After Washington DC and NYC bizarrely refused to impose curfews this weekend while nearly 3 dozen other major cities set curfews beginning as early as 4pmET on Sunday, Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser is planning to implement a curfew starting tonight at 7pmET (and again tomorrow), while de Blasio tries to save face by saying he’s “strongly considering” a curfew after mobs plunder stores, set fires following day of protests.

    President Trump, meanwhile, reportedly told governors, mayors and law enforcement officials during a video meeting that their response to the unrest was “weak”, and pressured them to allow cops to take more violent measures to contain these crowds during a hastily scheduled phone call to discuss “security measures” Monday morning. Trump also reportedly threatened to “activate” AG Barr if the unrest continues which sounds…more ridiculous than he probably intended.

    Comments reported a few hours after the meeting ended claimed Trump threatened to send the national guard into NYC (which already boasts its own private army, the NYPD).

    * * *

    Update (1100ET): The Global Times is capitalizing on the unrest in the US, and exploiting it for maximum propaganda benefit.

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    * * *

    Update (1045ET): As NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio surveys the wreckage from last night, and reckons with the PR embarrassment of having his daughter arrested with dozens of other demonstrators, the mayor said some “late evening protests” were not acceptable.

    You mean the demonstrations that happened after your daughter was arrested?

    Or the “demonstrations” like this one?

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    Addressing an incident from last night where an NYPD officer drew his gun, and another where two NYPD vehicles “surged” into a crowd of “protesters” blocking the road as they tried to get by, Mayor de Blasio said the cops “shouldn’t have done” what they did (after saying last night that the demonstrators were in the wrong), and also said the cop who drew his gun should have his badge taken, and that the vehicle incident would face an internal inspection.

    * * *

    Following what was either the third or the sixth night (depending on who you read) of chaos to sweep across America following the death of George Floyd a week ago, Americans surveying the wreckage are being met by staggering totals. After tens of thousands of peaceful demonstrators, violent anarchists and opportunistic looters commingled for another night of chaos in cities from California to New York, and from Seattle to South Florida.

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    Reports published late Sunday/early Monday revealed that President Trump spent part of Friday in an underground bunker under the White House as secret service fired rubber bullets into crowds of violent and non- violent demonstrators. Over the entire three nights of chaos, at least 4,400 people have been arrested, according to a tally compiled by The Associated Press. Arrests ranged from stealing and blocking highways to breaking the dozens of curfews imposed by cities around the country on Saturday and Sunday as the violence spread, the AP reports.

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    Source: AP

    Curfews were imposed in more than 30 major cities around the U.S., including Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle. About 5,000 National Guard soldiers and airmen were activated in 15 states and Washington, D.C.

    In Indianapolis, two people were reported dead in bursts of downtown violence this weekend, adding to deaths reported in Detroit and Minneapolis in recent days. In Oakland, two federal agents were shot Friday night; one was killed.

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    One man was shot and killed when police and the National Guard opened fire on a crowd that had reportedly turned violent in Louisville, the city where Breonna Taylor was killed. WaPo reports Metro Police Chief Steve Conrad confirming the Kentucky National Guard and Louisville police were dispatched to the parking lot at Dino’s Food Mart around 12:15 a.m., where a large crowd had gathered, and that as they tried to disperse the crowd, somebody opened fire at an officer.

    Minneapolis and St. Paul were largely spared on Sunday evening following early marches that were largely peaceful. Though there was one high profile incident involving a tanker driving into a crowd of marchers on a highway (the driver of the truck was later arrested), the widespread violence that plagued other areas didn’t materialize. As WaPo reports, the city on Monday morning looked like a “ghost town”.

    But this relative peace came at a high cost, as the national guard moved to forcefully enforce curfews, even going so far as to fire paint cannisters and rubber bullets at people sitting on porches who ignored shouts to “get inside.”

    The gas stations are closed. The grocery stores are dark. And along Hiawatha Avenue in South Minneapolis, one of the only restaurants serving is a McDonald’s, where every inch of the building’s windows are boarded up except for two small holes at the drive-through just big enough to pass along food.

    After nearly a week of unrest in response to the death of George Floyd, city and state officials were optimistic Sunday after a night passed without the dangerous fires, looting and violence that have cut a wide swath of devastation through the heart of this Midwestern city.

    But it came with a new reality: Thousands of National Guard troops and state and city police officers moving to aggressively – and sometimes violently – regain control of the streets, and a lockdown that has residents under curfew and has closed the major highways at night.

    In some neighborhoods, residents stand outside their homes and businesses with guns, fueling a sense of lawlessness, while medical students descend on the scene with supplies to assist those in need, adding to what increasingly feels like a domestic war zone.

    Minnesota’s Democratic governor, who has been criticized for not responding forcefully enough in the beginning. Now, he says, his approach might be remembered as heavy-handed – but he doesn’t care.

    “There will be critiques of me that this is excessive. Why are you keeping forces on the ground?” Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) said Sunday. It would be “irresponsible” to dial back the state’s response, amid rumors of outside agitators that he and other officials say have come into the city to sow chaos, he said.

    In particular, a video of cops and national guard firing at a woman standing peacefully on her porch went viral, eliciting a torrent of criticism. State police leaders defended it

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    On Monday, Gov. Andy Beshear said in a statement that he had authorized the Kentucky State Police to independently investigate the fatal shooting in Louisville “given the seriousness of the situation.”

    But the man in Louisville wasn’t the only casualty of the unrest. As governors in 26 states called in the National Guard and Secret Service agents again clashed with demonstrators outside the White House, media reported that at least six people had been killed in violence across the US, as gunfire rang out from Detroit to Indianapolis to Chicago to Omaha, notably correlating with the sites of notorious police killings.

    While journalists, pundits, celebrities etc joined together to discuss the importance of ensuring that black voices are heard, it appears that many of the “antifascist” protesters were too busy fighting racism by lighting black communities on fire to listen to a handful of community leaders in Portland, Oregon last night.

    Ron Herndon, the longtime director of the Portland-based Albina Head Start, held a peaceful event Sunday night at his organizations, a staple of black life in the city for years, according to the Oregonian.

    “It appears most of the young folks tearing up the city are younger white people,” he said. “If somehow you think that tearing up (downtown) is going to help black people, you are sadly mistaken. Please don’t think you are doing any of us any favors by tearing stuff up.”

    The “nonpartisan, politically neutral” mainstream press has decided to unilaterally give those looting and provoking violence and destruction a pass. Just because they’re telling you that is the “morally correct” position, doesn’t mean they’re right.

    As officials in California deal with the aftermath on Monday, California state government buildings “in downtown city areas” will be closed Monday, officials said, as authorities worry about the prospect of more violence. And while a brief number of international protests were planned in solidarity, many, including a march in Sydney, Australia, have been canceled due to COVID-19-linked concerns.

  • Auto Sales Plunge 33% In May, Set For Worst Year Since 2009
    Auto Sales Plunge 33% In May, Set For Worst Year Since 2009

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 21:10

    US auto sales are expected to continue their historic plunge in May, further pressuring an industry that is on the brink of all out collapse due to the pandemic lockdowns, plunging used car prices and suffering from a pre-virus recessionary environment.

    Sales figures for May are expected to fall 33% to just 1.05 million units, according to Cox Automotive and CNBC. Even worse, data from Bank of America indicates that demand for new vehicles could be dropping off a cliff at the same time the industry is getting ready to ramp up production again. 

    The numbers show a sequential improvement from April, but still offer an ominous outlook for the auto industry heading into the second half of 2020. Cox Automotive estimates the pace for U.S. car sales to be about 11.4 million units sold by the end of the year, which would make 2020 the worst year for car sales since 2009. These numbers compare to 17.4 million cars sold in 2019. 

    And it may not be because drivers are staying home anymore. Bank of America data from gas stations shows that drivers are back on the road again. “We estimate that gas consumption (in gallons) was still down about 30% YoY in April, but improved to -14% for the week ending May 23rd (latest available),” the bank wrote in a May 29 note. 

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    May’s numbers are in focus since the month kicks off summer sales season, traditionally the point in the year when dealers try to move inventory to make room for new models. Last weekend, some dealers offered incentives like 0% financing and 84 month financing offers to try and entice buyers into showrooms. 

    Some of the most generous incentives, offered around the time the virus started, are already being roped in as sales dead-cat bounce off their 2020 monthly lows. Auto analysts are blaming a lack of readily available inventory for the drop in sales, which is hilarious since the country is suffering from an unprecedented glut. 

    “At a minimum, selection may become more limited as the desired model may be in stock but not in the consumer’s preferred color or trim, potentially resulting in the consumer delaying purchase, switching brands, or moving into the used-vehicle market,” Cox Automotive explains.

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    Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ executive director of insights, said: “We can safely say that April was the bottom for auto sales during the coronavirus pandemic. There’s still a long road to recovery ahead, but May auto sales are a really encouraging sign for the industry.”

    But experts that are sure the bottom is in are focused on manufacturing without any regard as to whether or not demand is going to pick up. 

    Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division and chief product officer at J.D. Power, said Thursday: “The good news is that in general manufacturing is restarting. Even with our diminished sales pace, we are still in an environment where the industry is selling more vehicles than it produces.”

    With manufacturing picking up, we’ll see how long that lasts. Meanwhile, Bank of America notes that spending in auto parts is ramping up, indicating that OEM demand could be slipping as car owners may be more inclined to fix their current cars instead of buying new ones. 

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    The bank thinks that many Americans spend their stimulus checks on fixing their cars:

    “This data remained weak in the first two weeks of April, but took a sharp uptick in mid-April as stimulus checks began to reach US consumers. This benefit has lingered since mid-April, and auto parts demand now has additional support from increased driving activity as US markets begin to reopen for business. Daily auto parts spending was up approximately 23% YoY on average during the week ending May 23rd (latest available) according to the aggregated card data.”

    The industry is expected to have a lost a total of 1.2 million to 1.6 million total sales as a result of the pandemic. 

    King concluded: “Many of those will be recovered in the future, but some of them will be lost. Many consumers have lost the accountability to purchase a new vehicle or no longer need one because they no longer commuting to work.” 

    We’ll take the “under”…

  • "To Whom Will We Entrust The Truth Now That It No Longer Exists?"
    “To Whom Will We Entrust The Truth Now That It No Longer Exists?”

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 21:03

    Authored by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    “Protests are being manipulated by domestic terrorists and international forces trying to destabilize the nation,” declared Minnesota Governor Waltz, calling out the National Guard. George Floyd’s video raced through social media, and for an instant, America mourned in collective outrage.

    But no sooner had protests begun, then violence started. Waltz said white supremacists and drug cartels were responsible. Many believe that’s true.

    Trump tweeted, “It’s Antifa and the Radical Left.” Others believe that’s true. Some believe both. A few believe none of it.

    There are as many truths today as there are tribes. “Everything we do is focused on creating an environment in which people will have their best chance to keep their job or maybe get a new one,” explained Jerome Powell.

    “Fed policies absolutely don’t add to inequality,” continued the Chairman. And some think that’s true. Many others believe the opposite. And each tribe finds ample supporting studies to support their respective realities, while unemployment claims surpassed 40mm (1-in-4 workers) and the S&P 500 completed a 36% rally from the lows.

    “Mr. President don’t hide behind the Secret Service. Go talk to demonstrators seriously. Negotiate with them, just like you urged Beijing to talk to Hong Kong rioters,” taunted Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief for the Global Times, a Chinese government-controlled paper.

    Some of China’s 1.4bln citizens see a moral equivalent between HK/US protestors, while others just as clearly don’t. And as images of American riots captivated the world, Beijing imposed a national security law on Hong Kong, protests erupted, hundreds were arrested.

    China denounced Taiwan’s offer to resettle HK citizens, saying it was seeking to “loot a burning house” and sow discord. “Bringing black, violent forces into Taiwan will bring disaster to Taiwan’s people,” warned Beijing. And as Xi Jinping told his military officers “to step up preparations for armed combat,” some thought this was true.

    * * *

    Anecdote

    “Nothing is so painful to the human mind as a great and sudden change,” wrote Mary Shelley in 1818, exploring our humanity through her hideous creation, Frankenstein. And ever since, we’ve leapt from one change to the next, those periods in between marked by an eerie calm that we desperately embrace, mistaking stability for reality.

    “We’ll continue to point out incorrect or disputed information about elections globally, and we will admit to and own any mistakes we make,” declared Jack Dorsey, Twitter CEO, tormented by the staggering consequences of his creation. Social media has emerged as the principal battleground for what will surely be the most bitterly contested presidential election in modern American history. And this will likely be followed by a constitutional crisis in a devastatingly divided nation.

    Misunderstanding our own nature, we convinced ourselves the internet would be a force for unambiguous good, connecting humanity to a singular truth, inoculating us from our lies. But instead, our reality splintered into a million dimensions.

    Truth has died, replaced by a widening range of alternative realities, each one as vivid as the next to its inhabitants. So Dorsey is in search of something that no longer lives. His reality is another’s fantasy, as sure as the sky is blue, and those who would defend one, by definition, threaten the other.

    “Internet platforms are not arbiters of truth,” declared Mark Zuckerberg, defending his hideous creature from the villagers, their pitchforks. And no doubt, few would want to inhabit a world where Zuckerberg defined reality.

    “I have love in me the likes of which you can scarcely imagine and rage the likes of which you would not believe. If I cannot satisfy the one, I will indulge the other,” warned Frankenstein, Shelley’s eternal monster, alive within us all. And we are left to ponder a paradox as the consequences of this great and sudden change become manifest. To whom will we entrust the truth now that it no longer exists?

  • What 'Academic' Antifa Wants
    What ‘Academic’ Antifa Wants

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 20:50

    Update (2000ET): Right on cue, as Andy Ngo reports below, the mainstream media joins the #DefendAntifa narrative against Trump’s orders with an op-ed in The Washington Post from none other than Mark Bray:

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    Authored by Alexander Riley via Campus Reform,

    In a fully sane culture, the category ‘Antifa professor’ would be a contradiction in terms. The calling of the college professor entails a deep commitment to the power of facts and arguments to change minds. Antifa, on the other hand, is a loose collection of half-educated malcontents who entirely reject the logic of intellectual debate. They aim not to change the minds but rather to crush the skulls of those with whom they disagree, in the manner of sociopathic criminals throughout human history. 

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    Yet contemporary American higher education has produced a number of ‘Antifa professors’ who are currently holders of academic positions. They are engaged in the paradoxical business of making what they purport is an intellectual case for a thuggishly anti-intellectual movement. They include such figures as Michael “Dead cops are good” Isaacson and George “All I want for Christmas is White Genocide” Ciccariello-Maher. 

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    Among this cast, Mark Bray distinguishes himself as the only one who has produced an Antifa handbook. (As a matter of principle, I will not link to the book–the entire text can be found for free online, should you want a look without having to put any money in Bray’s pocket). He has appeared on “Meet the Press” and been written about in The Chronicle of Higher Education, in both cases with significant coddling.

    I had not paid any attention to him until he was recently invited to speak at Bucknell University, where I teach, by the Humanities Center. This gave me the excuse to look closely at his book on Antifa. I am glad to have done so, for it provides a useful blueprint for the whole movement of “academic Antifa,” and now I have a much firmer sense of just how dangerous that movement is. 

    The task to which the “Antifa professors” have set themselves is the same one the Communist International took up in the 1930s when it advanced the ideological line that essentially all parties and ideologies to the right of Marxism-Leninism were de facto fascist because, like the fascists, they opposed the coming to power of Marxist communist regimes. Clearly, some chicanery is required to make a case that not x=x, that is, non-fascists are fascists, with the goal of justifying treating both groups equally, that is, violently. Here’s how Bray eliminates the boundary between real fascists and assorted individuals and groups he dislikes that show absolutely no discernible connection to fascism:

    “From Tom Hanks in Saving Private Ryan…to Indiana Jones, nothing seems to delight American moviegoers more than killing Nazis…But would those same moviegoers consider it just as heroic to fight Nazis before… Hitler even took power in 1933? How would America respond to a cinematic depiction of communist…organizations…when they fought the Nazi[s]…in the 1920s and ‘30s? I like to imagine most Americans would sympathize with these militant formations because they know that the story ultimately ends in the gas chambers. So why then are so many Americans allergic to…the prospect of physically confronting fascists and white supremacists…?…Antifa argue that we should always remember that few took seriously the small bands of followers around Mussolini and Hitler when they started their ascent, and therefore we should remain vigilant against any and every manifestation of fascistic politics.” (Antifa: The Anti-Fascist Handbook, pp. 170-171, 172)

    Did you get that? Anyone who agrees that the killing of Nazis by soldiers in a war is justified ought to understand “physically confronting fascists and white supremacists,” e.g., at college campuses as an equivalent moral imperative.  What precisely is meant by “physically confronting,” we are not told. Should fascists and white supremacists merely be physically prevented from speaking? Should they be beaten? What if they insist on speaking despite efforts to prevent them from speaking, or defend themselves against Antifa beatings? How much is Antifa morally permitted to amplify “physical confront[ation]” in such cases? All of this is left conveniently unclear by Mr. Bray.

    Something even more crucial is left just as unclear here. How is it to be determined that the individuals Antifa desires to “physically confront” are indeed “fascists and white supremacists”? If they are actual Nazis, wearing swastikas and overtly announcing their violent and racist desires to expel “racial enemies,” the work is easy. But this is an infinitesimally small group, perhaps a few thousand in a country of 320 million (around 0.003%), and Mr. Bray is in no way content to restrict the category nearly so significantly:  

    “[W]e must recognize the relationship between two…registers of anti-fascism: analytical and moral. The analytical…consists of mobilizing historically informed definitions…of fascism to craft anti-fascist strategy [for]…facing ideologically fascist groups…The moral register developed out of the rhetorical power of…calling someone or something fascist…[Here] the anti-fascist lens is applied to phenomena that may not be fascist, technically speaking, but are fascistic. For example, were the Black Panthers wrong to call cops who killed black people with impunity “fascist pigs” if they did not personally hold fascist beliefs or if the American government was not literally fascist? At a Madrid Antifa demonstration, I saw a rainbow flag with the slogan “homophobia is fascism.” Does the existence of non-fascist homophobes invalidate the argument?…[T]he moral register of anti-fascism understands how ‘fascism’ has become a moral signifier that those struggling against a variety of oppressions have utilized to highlight the ferocity of the political foes they have faced and the elements of continuity they share with actual fascism…The challenges of defining fascism make the line between these two registers blurry…a key component of anti-fascism is to organize against both fascist and fascistic politics in solidarity with all those who suffer and struggle” (Antifa, pp. 134, 135)

    And a few pages along, Bray elaborates further:

    “[M]ilitant anti-fascism is but one facet of a larger revolutionary project. Many Antifa groups organize not only against fascism, but aim to combat all forms of oppression such as homophobia, capitalism, patriarchy, and so on. In that way, they see fascism as only the most acute versions of larger systemic threats. When I spoke with members of Pavé Brûlant [Burning Pavement] in Bordeaux, they continually stressed that all major political parties…manifested fascistic traits… It’s surreal to watch liberal pundits lambast anti-fascists for disrupting a fascist speech, when their revolutionary socialist ideology advocates the global expropriation of the capitalist ruling class and the destruction…of all existing states by means of an international popular uprising that most believe will necessitate violent confrontation with state forces. If they are critical of ‘no platforming,’ wait ‘til they hear about class war” (Antifa, pp. 158, 159).

    It is not then only “fascists and white supremacists” who can be legitimately met with Antifa violence. It is also individuals or groups Antifa has defined as “homophobes,” supporters of “patriarchy,” capitalism, and the police, finally, all those who participate in unnamed “variet[ies] of oppression” and thereby oppose “all those who suffer and struggle.” All these categories of potential targets, I remind you, are to be defined and determined by the members of Antifa. Mark Bray does not define them anywhere in his book with any precision at all. 

    Can you imagine why he might abstain from doing this?  

    I can.

    It’s because “academic Antifa” wants the answer to the question “Who is a fascist?” to be “Anyone Antifa says is a fascist, that’s who.”

    Bray’s invocation of the Black Panthers is particularly telling.  We should recall that by the early ’70s, factions of the Panthers were openly calling for armed struggle by blacks against the American government. One offshoot of the Black Panthers, the Black Liberation Army, orchestrated perhaps as many as thirteen carefully planned assassinations of police officers. These are Mark Bray’s ideological heroes and models.   

    One last bit from Bray, just to make crystal clear where the noxious teaching of “academic Antifa”is intended to leave us:

    “Our goal should be that in twenty years those who voted for Trump are too uncomfortable to share that fact in public. We may not always be able to change someone’s beliefs, but we sure as hell can make it politically, socially, economically, and sometimes physically costly to articulate them” (Antifa, p. 206)

    This rather lets the cat completely out of the bag, no? If you exercise your right to vote in a way that does not meet Antifa approval, then you are a legitimate target of criminal violence. The ranks of the “fascistic” have now swollen to around 63 million, which is the number of votes Trump received in 2016.  

    Those “academic Antifa” actively professing such ideas are still, at this point, a small minority in American higher education—though the fraction of the college professoriate they represent could easily be higher than the fraction of the American population that consists of white supremacists and Nazis. There are however many more working in colleges and universities who help give these ideas oxygen—by assigning books like Antifa, by inviting people like Mark Bray to speak on their campuses, by pretending that antifa are about something more sophisticated or noble than the desire for the violent destruction of the American civil sphere. 

    An important step in challenging this drift in the direction of “academic Antifa” is simply to report, accurately and in detail, on what these people say, write, and believe. Virulent ideas should be exposed to clean air and bright light. Among other positive effects, this allows the people who are largely paying the salaries of individuals like Mark Bray and his professorial supporters at Dartmouth and elsewhere, that is, the parents of college students and donors to institutions of higher education, to see precisely how their money is being spent.

  • Watch: Hundreds Of Handcuffed Perps Lined Up Outside NYC Bookings
    Watch: Hundreds Of Handcuffed Perps Lined Up Outside NYC Bookings

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 20:30

    As Andrew Cuomo delivers his first daily update on the coronavirus situation in his state following the riots we saw across the nation over the weekend, videos of the processing line outside a police precinct in Manhattan on Monday morning show just how many people were arrested in NYC alone, during a weekend where – according to the AP – more than 4,000 were arrested around the country on charges stemming from unlawful assembly to murder.

    Police are likely still arresting individuals based on surveillance footage and other next-level surveillance techniques that the NYPD can bring to bear when it wants to arrest a given subject. Additionally, many of the thousands who were arrested across NYC over the

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    The Twitter account belonging to one of the NYPD’s most powerful unions, the SBA, released an internal arrest report for Mayor de Blasio’s daughter, Chiara, who was booked for “unlawful assembly” and “object throwing” – though only the first charge was initially released to the media. The account slammed the mayor for his decision to not allow cops to use “mounted units” and other tactics, according to TPM.

    But as media pundits continue to spin a narrative where all the unrest can be pinned on “foreign enemies” like Moscow and Beijing, we can’t help but ask: do these look like Russian sleeper agents – or white supremacists – to you?

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    Others joked that the line was longer than the toilet paper line at Costco.

  • Greenfield: How To Make Your Own Race Riot
    Greenfield: How To Make Your Own Race Riot

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 20:10

    Authored by Daniel Greenfield via Sultan Knish blog,

    The angry rioter is a sacred figure in the progressive pantheon of social justice. But the saint of the looted convenience store is as mythical a figure as the selfless community organizer.

    The race riot isn’t a bubbling stew of outrage out of which wounded souls emerge to cry out for justice. It’s a complicated criminal conspiracy in which the perpetrators rarely suffer any consequences.

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    Here’s how a race riot is actually put together.

    3. Riots aren’t fed by outrage, but by opportunism

    The rioters aren’t outraged, they’re usually bored young men, frustrated and lacking in empathy. Many of them have gang ties or a criminal record stretching back to kindergarten.

    They’re the same people who commit crimes in any other non-outraged context.

    The rest are there to get some attention while providing them with protective coloration. 9 out of 10 people screaming frenziedly while holding up “Black Lives Matter” signs would eagerly scream and hold up “Tiger King 4 President” or “Minneapolis Loves the KKK” signs if it got them positive attention and a shot at being on television.

    Everything else you need to do know about why riots happen out can be read on a thermometer. Weather breaks up a riot faster than appeasement. It’s hard to riot when your teeth are chattering. There’s a reason that riots usually happen in the summer. The same viral video that sets a nation on fire would have been met with shrugs in the winter.

    The riots didn’t happen because of outrage, but because the gathering mobs were told by everyone from CNN right up to their local Democrat politicians that angry protests were expected and would be tolerated. That was as good as throwing a match into a spreading pool of gasoline.

    No one was stealing beauty supplies or starting fires in Walgreens because they were upset about George Floyd They were stealing because they believed that they could get away with it.

    2. The rioters and looters aren’t burning their own community

    A riot has two components. There are the bored and irritated locals who begin swarming streets because they have no jobs, it’s hot outside and there’s nothing good on television. They will loosely agree with whatever issue is on the table, but they aren’t all that worked up about it.

    And then there are the outsiders.

    Before the riot, community organizers, citizen reporters and assorted activists show up to coordinate, spread slogans and justify the coming violence. They want violence far more than the locals do and they taunt police and try to create incidents, but they ofte avoid personally engaging in violence.

    In the early twentieth century the group stirring up riots was usually some arm of the Communist Party. Later a variety of leftist groups, like Antifa, many closely entangled with the Democratic Party took over. Most of the damage is done by looters and rioters from other areas looking for an opportunity to burn and steal. Some locals will tag after them, but they are usually responsible for the worst of the violence. Some of the looters are from out of state, others from different neighborhoods.

    Being outsiders they’re unknown to the police and rarely have to worry about being identified afterwards. And they don’t care about burning down someone else’s community.

    The media usually sticks to its narrative of an outraged community that engages in excesses, especially when it can’t tell apart the locals from the outsiders. Local cops can, but no one in the media listens to them. Arrest records often show that most of those charged in the more violent crimes aren’t locals, but the media remains immune to facts that conflict with a favorite narrative.

    1. Riots are about power, not for the rioters, but for the establishment

    “We must not reprimand our children for outrage when it is the outrage that was put in them by an oppressive system,” Al Sharpton had said, in the aftermath of the murder of a Jewish student by an angry black mob.

    This same rhetoric was used by the inciters of the violence around the country and has been used in similar riots going back generations. Its major theme is that the rioters are free to do whatever they want. They carry no moral responsibility for their actions.

    And what they want is to smash and steal anything they can get their hands on. This isn’t outrage. It’s textbook amoral behavior. The riot doesn’t release anger; it frees the perpetrators of their morality.

    The real purpose of a riot isn’t to benefit the rioters. It’s to benefit those who incite the riot. The rioters and looters react in response to riot-friendly conditions created from above. If you build the political infrastructure for a riot, the rioters and looters will come.

    Sharpton’s riots weren’t about helping anyone except himself. By associating himself with violence, he sold the idea that he was an influential figure in the black community. Whether or not Sharpton was actually popular, his rise to the top of the political establishment became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    Riots are about perception, not reality. The ringleader tries to keep his hands clean while convincing the establishment that he can turn the violence on or off any time he wants to.

    The last decade of riots are the product of a new generation of Sharptons, ambitious activists feeding hate, of the New Black Panther Party’s obsession with becoming relevant, of the ragged hipster ends of Occupy Wall Street drifting from occupation to occupation, of radical white lefties and groups like Black Lives Matter that exist to suck up funding and sympathy from their white lefty allies.

    It’s an old and cynical game that has been played in and around the Democratic Party for too long.

    The answers to the rioting can’t be found in its streets. The problem didn’t come from there. It came from a corrupt political establishment that lights the fuse for its own power and profit.

  • India's Electricity Generation Plunges As Worst Economic Downturn In Decades Unfolds 
    India’s Electricity Generation Plunges As Worst Economic Downturn In Decades Unfolds 

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 19:50

    India has announced plans to ease a strict national lockdown even as the spread of COVID-19 shows no signs of abating. Restaurants, hotels, malls, and places of worship could reopen in the near term. Despite reopening plans, India’s economy is rapidly deteriorating, which has led to a significant decline in electricity generation. 

    Even before the two-month lockdown, India’s economy was decelerating and now faces the worst recession in four decades. The country’s economy could contract by at least 5% this fiscal year.  

    Economic paralysis has led to a collapse in electricity generation across the country, plunging 14.3% in May, compared with a 24% decline in April, a new Reuters analysis of government data showed. 

    The report said electricity demand was higher among households, as consumption among industries and commercial places was still widely depressed. Factories account for 50% of India’s annual electricity demand, which suggests operating capacity is still low.

    India’s economic downturn will result in a decline in the country’s electricity demand for the next several years. Global rating and research agency CRISIL recently said it could take upwards of three years for the economy to get back to growth activity seen in 2019. This means India will not see a V-shaped economic recovery, but rather one that is more of a U or L-shaped. 

    CRISIL believes India’s economy will suffer a 10% permanent loss to real GDP thanks to the pandemic-induced downturn. 

    India will need fiscal support from the government this year to counter the recession. If policy support is limited, it means the downturn will increasingly get worse in the back half of 2020. 

    Here’s what a recent UBS note said about India’s troubling situation:  

    “While there is no doubt that India is facing a significant economic shock, the pace of recovery, if any, will be determined by the economic policy choices taken to ensure that the significant secondary impacts (job losses, reduced income levels, corporate defaults, rising NPLs (non-performing loans), rating downgrade, etc.,) can be contained,” UBS said in a report.

    A few months before the virus outbreak spread across the world, we noted in late 2019 that India’s economy was collapsing in a piece titled “India In “Very Deep Crisis,” Witnessing “Death Of Demand,” Warns Former Indian FM.” 

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    It just so happens that the global economy was slowing before the pandemic began — which has allowed governments and central banks to scapegoat the virus and deflect any attention from their failed policies to boost economic growth. 

     

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Today’s News 1st June 2020

  • Luxury Good? Where The "Tampon Tax" Is Highest (& Lowest) In Europe
    Luxury Good? Where The “Tampon Tax” Is Highest (& Lowest) In Europe

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 02:45

    Around the world, women pay high tax rates on period supplies like pads and tampons. These items are included in high sales tax brackets in many countries, ignoring possible reductions permissible for essential items or even declaring them luxuries before the law.

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    In the EU for example, countries have been free to depart from standard sales tax rates since 2007 and apply super discounted tax rates to feminine sanitary products. Still, as Statista’s Katharina Buchholz notes, many countries haven’t lowered their tax rates, with Hungary exhibiting the highest rate at 27 percent. Several Scandinavian countries, whether they are EU-members or not, tax at around 25 percent and Greece even raised the so-called “tampon tax” to 23 percent as part of the country’s austerity measures, according to Eurostat and media reports.

    Infographic: Where the

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    In the past 12 months, three Eastern and Central European countries – Poland, the Czech Republic and Lithuania – have lowered the “tampon tax” to 5 percent. Germany has also slashed taxes on feminine hygiene products to 7 percent from a high of 19 percent and Luxembourg has even gone as low as a 3 percent tax.

    The UK and Cyprus already had their rate as low as 5 percent by 2018, similar to France, which charges 5.5 percent. Switzerland currently charges 7.7 percent but is looking to reduce that to 2.5 percent. Equally, Spain has been discussing changing the current 10 percent rate to 4 percent. The only country with no sales tax on period supplies in Europe is Ireland.

  • Why The European Recovery Plan Will Likely Fail
    Why The European Recovery Plan Will Likely Fail

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

    The 750 billion euro stimulus plan announced by the European Commission has been greeted by many macroeconomic analysts and investment banks with euphoria. However, we must be cautious. Why? Many would argue that a swift and decisive response to the crisis with an injection of liquidity that avoids a financial collapse and a strong fiscal impulse that cements the recovery are overwhelmingly positive measures. History and experience tell us that, indeed, the risk of disappointment regarding the positive impact on the real economy is not small.

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    The history of stimulus plans in the eurozone should alert us against excessive optimism.

    As you may remember, the European Union launched in July 2009 an ambitious project for growth and employment called the “European Economic Recovery Plan”. A stimulus of 1.5% of GDP to create “millions of jobs in infrastructure, civil works, interconnections, and strategic sectors”. Europe was going to emerge from the crisis stronger than the United States thanks to the Keynesian impulse of public spending. However, 4.5 million jobs were destroyed and the deficit almost doubled while the economy stagnated. This was after the balance sheet of the European Central Bank had doubled between 2001 and 2008. That enormous plan not only did not help the eurozone get out of the crisis stronger, but we can debate whether it prolonged it, as by 2019 there were still signs of evident weakness. The tax rises and obstacles to private activity that accompanied this large package of expenses delayed the recovery, which in any case was slower than comparable economies.

    We must also dismantle the idea that the European Central Bank did not support the economy in the 2008 crisis. Two huge sovereign bond buyback programs with Trichet as president of the ECB, rate cuts from 4.25% to 1% since 2008, and purchases of more than 115 billion euros in sovereign bonds. At the end of 2011, the ECB was the largest holder of Spanish debt, while it was accused of inaction.

    During all this time, the balance of the ECB was greater than that of the Federal Reserve with respect to GDP, and in May 2020 it stands at 44% of GDP compared to 30% in the US.

    Stimuli have never stopped in the eurozone. An additional ECB buyback plan in addition to the TLTRO liquidity programs with Draghi brought sovereign bonds to the lowest yields in history and to the ECB buying almost 20% of the total debt of the main states. This was such an excessive balance sheet expansion plan that, at the end of May 2020, excessive liquidity in the ECB was 2.1 trillion euros. Excessive liquidity was barely 125 billion euro when the so-called 2014 stimulus plan was launched.

    No one can deny that the impact on growth, productivity, and employment of these enormous plans has been more than disappointing. Except for a brief period of euphoria in 2017, downward revisions to eurozone growth have been constant, culminating in the fourth quarter of 2019 with France and Italy in stagnation, Germany on the brink of recession, and a significant slowdown in Spain. The use of the excuses of Brexit and the trade war did not disguise that the economic result of the stimulus was already more than poor.

    We have another important example for caution. The so-called “Juncker Plan” or “Investment Plan for Europe”, considered as the solution to the lack of growth of the European Union, also had an extremely poor result. It mobilized 360 billion euros, many for projects with no real economic return or real effect on growth. Estimates of growth in the euro zone fell sharply, productivity growth stagnated and industrial production fell in December 2019 to the lowest level in years.

    We must also be cautious with the green plans. All of us are in favor of a serious and competitive energy transition, but we cannot forget that a very important part of the European Union’s “green” plan attacks demand via tax increases and protectionist measures such as a border tax on countries that have not signed the Paris Agreement (but not to those who do not comply, those have no risk). This limits the potential for recovery and increases the possibility of an additional trade war.

    We cannot ignore the negative impact on industry and employment of the massive “green” policy plans of the euro area of ​​2004-2018, which caused the countries of the European Union to suffer electricity and natural gas bills for households that are twice as those in the USA, while growth stalled.

    What is the problem with European stimulus plans compared to those of the United States? The first and most important is they come from directed economy central planning. These are plans with a very strong component of political decisions about where and how they are invested. Political planning is an essential part of the largest parts of these stimuli, and as such, they generate poor growth and weak results. Thus, one of the big problems is that sectors that are already suffering from overcapacity are being “stimulated”, or a false demand signal is generated via subsidies, which then generates working capital problems and an alarming increase in the number of zombie companies. According to the Bank of International Settlements, the number of zombie companies in Europe has exploded amid stimulus plans. The past is bailed out and the economy is zombified. 

    Another big problem is that the wrong sectors are stimulated while thousands of small companies that have no access to credit or political favour die. It is not a coincidence that the eurozone destroys more innovative companies or prevents them from growing when regulation forces 80% of the real economy to be financed through the banking channel while in the US it does not reach 30%. Can you imagine an Apple or Netflix growing via bank loans? Impossible.

    Another big problem is the obsession with redistribution. By fiscally penalizing merit and success and sustaining public spending above 40% of GDP at any cost with higher taxes while subsidizing low-productivity sectors, the European Union incurs in a huge malinvestment risk when it rewards the subsidized sectors, or those close to political power while those with high productivity are penalized. It is no coincidence that Europe does not have technological champions. It scares them off by perpetuating the obsolete national champions and penalizing merit remuneration and alternative investment via taxation.

    Nothing we just discussed changes in the newly announced plan package. It is the same, but much larger. And we cannot believe that this time will be different. While they tell us about green plans, the vast majority of the bailouts will go to aluminum and steel, autos, airlines, and refineries. Meanwhile, a huge tax increase in savings and investment may further drown start-ups, investment in research and development, and innovative companies.

    The problem of the European Union has never been a lack of stimuli, but rather an excess of these. The European Union has chained one state stimulus plan after another since its inception. This crisis needed a strong boost to merit, innovation, private capital, and entrepreneurship with supply measures. I am afraid that, again, it has been decided to bail-out everything from the past and let the future die.

  • Smith: Why The Public Should Rebel Against Forced Vaccinations
    Smith: Why The Public Should Rebel Against Forced Vaccinations

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 06/01/2020 – 00:00

    Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

    The debate over the morality and practicality of forced vaccinations has been raging for many years, long before the coronavirus ever hit the US population. With the advent of the pandemic the narrative has shifted to one of “necessity”. The media and the majority of governments around the world now act as if mass vaccinations are a given; the “debate is over”, as collectivists like to say when they are tired of having to deal with any logical or factual complaints.

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    In the case of the novel coronavirus there is no vaccine yet; unless of course the virus was engineered or evolved in a lab (as more and more evidence is suggesting), and then perhaps there is one already developed. Typically, vaccines take years to test and produce, and whenever a vaccine is rushed onto the market very bad things tend to happen.

    The vaccine debate often revolves around the issue of safety. Is a particular inoculation safe or poisonous? Does it have long term effects that are dangerous? Does it harm children with highly sensitive and underdeveloped body systems?  These are valid concerns, but ultimately the fight over vaccines has less to do with medical safety or effectiveness and more to do with individual rights vs government demands.

    In other words, the more important questions are:  Should social engineering by governments and elites be allowed? Do people have the right to determine how their bodies are medically augmented or manipulated? Does the “security of the majority” take precedence over the civil liberties of the individual?  And if so, who gets to determine what freedoms will be taken away?

    The Legal Argument

    The purveyors of the forced vaccination philosophy usually make a legal or technical argument first before they appeal to the idea of “the greater good”.  They do this because they know that public perception often assumes (wrongly) that legal authority is the same as moral authority.

    In 1905, the US Supreme Court was presented with Jacobson vs. Massachusetts, a case involving the subject of state enforced smallpox vaccination. The defendant argued on the grounds of the 14th Amendment that his bodily liberty was being violated by the state if he was subjected to arbitrary vaccination without his consent. The state and the Supreme Court felt differently (of course). The Supreme Court ruled against Jacobson on the grounds that his refusal to take the vaccine put other people “at risk”, and that “for the common good” states have certain “police powers” that supersede personal liberties.

    Whenever liberty movement activists argue against forced vaccinations on constitutional grounds, THIS is the counter-argument that the government and statists will make. They will bring up Jacobson vs. Massachusetts and then claim that is the end of the discussion.

    Essentially, the Supreme Court argued that the federal government could not interfere with state imposed forced vaccinations on the grounds of states rights and the 10th Amendment. Most people in the liberty movement will find this rather ironic, as it is bizarre to hear about the federal government defending states rights. But, this support of the 10th Amendment is highly selective.

    First, let’s not forget that the Supreme Court has been wrong many times in the past. In the Dredd Scott case in 1834, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of slavery and the right of states to enforce the institution. They also argued that the 5th Amendment protected slave owners because freeing slaves meant depriving owners of their “property”.

    The Supreme Court’s habit is to defend states rights and the 10th Amendment when people’s individual liberties are being quashed. However, if a case involves states protecting citizens from federal intrusion, the court flips and attacks states rights when they work in favor of individual liberty or self determination.

    The Jacobson  vs. Massachusetts case may be the reason why Trump and the federal government have mostly left the lockdowns and emergency actions to the states.  The legal precedence was already established in 1905 on quarantines and forcing vaccinations through state police powers, so it only follows that the establishment would utilize the states to carry out such measures in the near future.

    The “states vs federal government” debate sets up a false paradigm. There is no separation between state and federal governments when it comes to tyranny – both sides love it, though they pretend to be opposed to each other at times. That is to say, whether it is the federal government violating your constitutional rights or the state government violating your constitutional rights, the Supreme Court is often comfortable with both.

    The truth they don’t want to discuss is that at bottom the Bill of Rights overrules them regardless of federal precedent or the 10th Amendment. The key to the Bill of Rights is that each American citizen has INHERENT LIBERTIES that supersede both federal and state power. These rights are inalienable. They cannot be violated today, and the law cannot be adjusted to violate them tomorrow. These rights and freedoms are ETERNAL.

    The Supreme Court hisses with a forked tongue about the “spirit of the constitution” but ignores the clear and concrete intent as stated by the Founders. Statists argue in favor of the “living document” philosophy when it suits them as a means to change the original meaning and laws put forth in the Bill of Rights because this allows them to violate citizen freedoms under the guise of “legality”. But “legality” is not the same a morality. Legality is meaningless, and the Supreme Court is meaningless if it acts against the constitutional bedrock of the Bill of Rights and individual liberty as they have done numerous times in the past.

    The Moral Argument

    So, if we cannot rely on legality to protect us from state tyranny, what can we rely on? Forced vaccine advocates will say that morality is on their side as well, for if a person does not vaccinate they are putting the rest of society at risk of infection. Therefore, your individual rights must be violated in order to protect the rights of the rest of society. The problem is that Jacobson vs Massachusetts makes no logical argument supporting this assertion, and neither do forced vaccine proponents.

    Look at it this way: How can a person that is not vaccinated “harm” people that are vaccinated? How are they putting those people at risk? If the vaccine actually works, then vaccinated people are safe from infection, aren’t they? So, the only person “at risk” is the person that chose not to vaccinate. This comes down to personal choice, there is no question of “the greater good” or social risk.

    I find it fascinating that the people that argue fervently in favor of forced vaccinations (people like Bill Gates) also tend to be the same people that argue in favor of abortion rights.  So, “my body my choice” is acceptable when it comes to women ending the lives of unborn children, but “my body my choice” is not acceptable when it comes to mass vaccinations even though an unvaccinated person is a threat to no one.

    Some vaccine advocates will then claim that unvaccinated people could be host to “mutations” that threaten herd immunity. The problem is that there is no evidence to support this argument. The vast majority of viruses tend to mutate into LESS deadly or infectious strains, not more deadly. The only mitigating factors would be if a virus was deliberately designed or engineered to mutate in an unnatural manner.

    If a virus is designed to mutate into a vastly different and more deadly strain that can attack vaccinated persons then the vaccine was never useful to begin with, and forced vaccinations are pointless. Once again, if the vaccine is effective then there is simply no basis for the position that an unvaccinated person puts vaccinated people in danger.

    The Conformity Argument

    The next argument by pro-forced vaccination people is to ask “why”? Why do you care if you are vaccinated? What do you have to worry about? Just go along to get along, right…?

    This argument reminds me of a common anti-gun narrative: Why do you need to carry a gun? Why frighten other people? The chances you will need it are slim, right…?

    The most important answer to the gun question is “Because it’s my right to carry and I plan to exercise it. Also, your fear of guns does not take precedence over my constitutional freedoms.” The same goes for forced vaccination: Because it is my right to refuse to have ANY pharmaceutical product injected into my body. Your fears of infection do not matter to my constitutional rights. If you want to take the vaccine then that is your choice. Leave me out of it.

    Arguing about hypothetical threats is a waste of time. I carry a firearm because I have the right to have a means of defense just in case I need it. I refuse vaccinations because I have a right to avoid potential bodily harm just in case I have suspicions of a faulty product.

    And is there reason to be concerned about faulty vaccines? Absolutely. Mass vaccinations programs that were rushed to the public have a track record of harming people’s health.

    With globalists like Bill Gates, an obsessive champion of depopulation at the forefront of the Covid-19 effort, I have no plans to accept any coronavirus vaccine. Bill Gates has funded numerous experimental vaccine trials through the World Health Organization, including Polio vaccination programs.  It was these same programs that led to viral outbreaks of polio in various countries and hundreds of paralyzed children. In fact, the vaccines caused more cases of Polio than the wild-type virus. This if VERIFIED FACT, admitted by the WHO and other mainstream sources, though numerous leftist media outlets continue to deny it.

    At most, the WHO and Gates can claim that the infections were “accidental”. But if this is the case, it would still suggest that vaccines developed by Gates Foundation programs and the WHO should not be trusted.

    In 1976 a swine flu scare enabled the initiation of a government funded mass vaccination program. The vaccine was faulty and was canceled in less than 10 weeks after causing hundreds of cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome, a rare neurological condition that leads to temporary paralysis and sometimes death.

    In 2008, Swiss company Novartis tested a Bird Flu vaccine on the homeless and poor population of Poland. The vaccine trial paid participants $2, and they were told the inoculation was for the “normal flu”. According a homeless center in the area at least 21 people died right after they participated in the trial.

    A GlaxoSmithKline executive by the name of Moncef Slaoui was recently tapped by Donald Trump to head up the government’s effort to develop a coronavirus vaccine. This appointment should be highly concerning to the public. Why? Because Glaxo has a dark history in vaccine development, including an incident in Argentina in 2007-2008 when they were fined after a pneumonia vaccine trial allegedly caused the deaths of at least 14 babies. Slaoui was in charge of Glaxo’s vaccine division at the time.

    Statists that argue in favor of forced vaccination will dismiss all of these examples as mere “accidents” that are “rare”. Others will claim that fighting the pandemic is worth the risk of a “few deaths” due to some faulty vaccines. But this does not address the core issue of the battle against forced vaccination programs.  Does a minority of elites in government or even a majority of useful idiots in the general population have the right to declare ownership of your body in the name of an arbitrary “greater good”?  I say no, which is why I will NOT be conforming to any forced vaccine measures and I am willing to take extreme actions to defend myself from them if necessary.

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    As mentioned above, if a vaccine works, then there is no need to force people to take it. It will protect those that want it and the only risk is to those that choose not to use it. Frankly, the people in charge of the vaccine effort are not to be trusted, they have open ideological agendas that are questionable to say the least. Allowing them to dictate what goes into our bodies is akin to slavery at best, and possible mass death at worst.

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    If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch.  Learn more about it HERE.

  • Plastic's Back! COVID Contamination Concerns Crush California's "Green" New Deal
    Plastic’s Back! COVID Contamination Concerns Crush California’s “Green” New Deal

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 23:30

    Disposable plates, silverware, and straws are making a comeback in California. New guidelines issued by the CDC recommend restaurants use plasticware by default as a way to limit the spread of the virus upon reopening. 

    Environmental groups have become infuriated with the new recommendation, as it now means all their hard work to ban plastic straws and push a “Green” New Deal could come to an abrupt end (maybe temporarily) because according to the CDC, throwaway dishes, utensils, napkins, and tablecloths could reduce virus spread.

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    California recycling and clean water groups recently delivered a letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom, questioning how exactly plasticware diminishes the probabilities of contracting the virus and also accused petrochemical companies of “trying to influence CDC guidelines for reopening food establishments in their favor.”

    “The idea that the CDC recommends that single-use disposable items should be preferred seems a little illogical to me,” Chris Slafter, interim coordinator of Clean Water Action’s ReThink Disposable program, which provides grants to restaurants and advises them on how to transition and replace plasticware to more sustainable products, told Politico. “Someone still has to handle that item before it goes into a customer’s hand.”

    In pre-corona times, California and its green activists led the way in eliminating plastic straws and other petroleum‐based plastics from the restaurant industry as they have long criticized the items eventually end up in the oceans, polluting and killing wildlife. 

    We recently noted that microplastics have also ended up in human stool. 

    Now, in post-corona times, with California’s restaurant industry crashed (according to OpenTable data from late May), eateries that have been opened with carryout only and ones that have just fully reopened, have turned to plasticware over the CDC’s new sanitary guidelines. 

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    OpenTable restaurant data through the end of May

    Restaurants in other states have also followed the new guidelines with the switch to disposable menus, plates, silverware, etc. 

    However, Stanford University epidemiologist Steven Goodman does not see a difference in plasticware from regular plating, in terms of reducing virus spread, as he notes, there’s still human staff behind the scenes making the food.  

    “It doesn’t sound like there should be a big difference if they’re handled carefully,” Goodman said. “Washing the plates well should get rid of [the virus], and so the only difference could be how they’re handled between the time when they are on the table and in the sink or in the washing machine.”

    Sharokina Shams, the California Restaurant Association’s vice president of public affairs, told Politico in an email response that “many of the current local public health orders (which are a response to the coronavirus pandemic) do put an emphasis on single-use products, and cities have been moving to suspend the ban on plastic bags.”

    “It’s also interesting to note that the number of delivery and takeout orders went up during stay-at-home/shelter-in-place orders. If that becomes a long-term pattern, you may see the demand for single-use products rise,” said Shams. 

    And just like that, who would’ve ever thought California’s green movement would get derailed by a virus. 

  • The Question Of Evidence When Governments Push Political Narratives
    The Question Of Evidence When Governments Push Political Narratives

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 23:00

    Authored by Kevin Smith via Off-Guardian.org,

    In the last 30 years, there have been many big events which have been questioned. Iraq is the classic example of where a relative few questioning the pretext of that invasion (Weapons of Mass Destruction – WMDs) were insulted and smeared but later vindicated.

    Today, in the background of the risk of world conflict and threat to health and our way of life arising from Covid-19, it’s never been more important to be sceptical and understand evidence.

    Earlier in my career, I used to adjudicate financial disputes between two parties, weigh up the evidence, and decide the most likely scenario.

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    So, in terms of what’s going on in the world, I’m interested in narratives which are open to challenge and the thinking and motives of those in power, the media, and experts behind them. And particularly how the public watching and listening process these messages.

    First, before reading on, watch this clip, which I think is hilarious and vaguely relevant to what I’m going to say:

    For those not familiar with the actors, this was a press conference held by Eliot Higgins of Bellingcat in 2018. Bellingcat is an Atlantic Council-funded online investigative website which has looked into the shooting down of the MH17 passenger plane, alleged chemical attacks in Syria, and the Sergei Skripal incident.

    Graham Phillips, who crashed the event, is an independent UK journalist. He was there to ask Higgins what evidence he had for concluding Russia was responsible for the Skripal incident.

    Someone unfamiliar with the background watching the clip might view Phillips as an amusing but disruptive, perhaps even unhinged, character who should have been escorted away by the police sooner.

    Yet appearances can be deceiving. Those aware of Bellingcat, Higgins, and their highly suspect investigations, will know that the some of the questions Phillips was posing about the evidence for Skripal were pertinent.

    Secondly, many people think they are not qualified to research or question the politics or science behind government decisions.

    I can understand people with busy lives accepting narratives about events in far-away parts of the world. But Covid-19 should really change that given the impact that lockdown may have on our lives for years to come.

    This is what Lord Sumption, former member of the English Supreme Court, said about Covid-19 on BBC Radio 4 recently:

    What I say to them is I am not a scientist but it is the right and duty of every citizen to look and see what the scientists have said and to analyse it for themselves and to draw common sense conclusions.

    We are all perfectly capable of doing that and there’s no particular reason why the scientific nature of the problem should mean we have to resign our liberty into the hands of scientists.

    We all have critical faculties and it’s rather important, in a moment of national panic, that we should maintain them.

    Lord Sumption is right. I often didn’t have expert knowledge of the area I was adjudicating on. It wasn’t necessary as we would rely on expert evidence, typically independent or from two sources. What I did was just weighing up information — an ability most of us have when applying ourselves.

    Evidence comes in many forms: testimony, circumstantial, documents, and research or expert studies.

    Below are some established concepts of assessing evidence as well as some pointers about the reality of today’s global scene that’s relevant when reviewing sharply conflicting narratives.

    HISTORY AND TRACK RECORD

    This is a good initial indicator. Similar to detectives investigating a murder, they will be guided towards a suspect who has a criminal record.

    In the case of Western governments, their advisors, and media, a look at their previous record on a whole range of important issues will show they’ve been wrong.

    However, we should be mindful that just because they’ve always been wrong, that it doesn’t follow they are this time around.

    For example, based on their past track record, we should certainly view governments’ response to Covid-19 with scepticism initially and ask questions. The information which flows from this and other material will make up the main body of evidence.

    ONUS OF PROOF

    Taking Covid-19 as just one example, it amazes me when someone says, “you seem to think lockdown is not necessary, it states on the news that it’s working, so what proof do you have that it isn’t?”

    I probably don’t need to elaborate on this lazy thinking except to say that the onus is on those who assert to prove. So, the duty is on the government to show that lockdown is working by directly reducing infection, and most importantly, is necessary in the big scheme.

    The media is a main channel to communicate such evidence, but statements of “we don’t know” or “it’s too early to tell” or “trust the science”, contradictions, and scare stories have been typical of the entire Covid-19 response.

    Meanwhile, many sceptical experts and independent commentators have brought much to the table in terms of scientific studies and the questioning proportionality of lockdown measures.

    The sceptics as yet have not had the same air-time to put forward their case. But people need to remember that the government has not discharged the onus of proof over Covid-19, and historically, rarely do over other events.

    MOTIVES

    We go back again to our detectives. Who has most to gain from pushing a certain narrative? With Iraq, there were clear agendas in Washington to go to war, so much so that stories appeared in the press of links between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda. When this nonsense was dismissed, we moved to the threat of WMDs. We went to war out of a determination by Bush and Blair.

    Today, I believe that the UK government is realising their lockdown response was driven by blind panic after receiving incorrect advice on potential mortality rates from their scientists.So, their main motive now is to prevent an angry backlash against the damage caused by lockdown.

    Mixed up in all events from Iraq to Covid-19 are the combined interests of numerous parties such as NATO-funded NGOs and investigative sites such as Bellingcat, career journalists, arms industry lobbies, and big pharma. These vested interests include money, career advancement, power, and ideology.

    For example, in deciding whether to get involved in Syria, selfish interests worked together. This is why one war after another has been a disaster.

    Independent journalists and activists don’t generally have the same motivations and therefore their opposition to their government’s Syria policy is based on the horror of the destruction and threat to world peace.

    Thus, understanding the main players and their motives is crucial to understanding evidence.

    TACTICS

    I recall when adjudicating disputes, the lengths one party would go to, to mislead or pressurise me.

    The government, in pushing the narrative of the day, is no different, and has many tools in its armoury, not least a compliant media.

    Blaming others, dumbing-down debate, and distracting their audience towards less important issues are classic tactics. For example, when the Covid-19 debate should be about whether lockdown is proportional and necessary, the media focus on scare stories, lack of equipment for health service staff, and blaming China.

    The government and media also build a ‘unifying’ theme, encouraging weekly clapping for health workers and constant TV adverts telling us to “stick together to see it through”.

    But the mask slips when dealing with the dissenters. Heavy-handed policing of lockdown and outright censorship of those who question the necessity for lockdown, even extending to the views of respected but non-government experts.

    Twitter mobs sucked into the frenzy of fear and the new ‘unity’ emerge to smear and insult those questioning the government position.

    These tactics have been used prior to every war and during every crisis, only for the narrative to later collapse.

    A sign that these people are wrong is that if their position had merit, they wouldn’t censor and would debate.

    One of their tactics is to label anyone who questions the prevailing narrative as “conspiracy theorists”. Unfortunately, some dissenters, rather than stick to the position that the government has serious questions to answer, go on to speculate and develop theories which can’t be proven. This provides the opportunity for those pushing official narratives to dismiss powerful arguments based on one error or supplementary theory.

    EXPERTS AREN’T ALWAYS RIGHT

    I know from experience that experts are often wrong — possibly due to a bias, an under- or over- emphasis on certain evidence, a method, or an inability to think a little outside of their field. The results can be seen in all professions, for example, in miscarriages of justice and the experts which advised governments on WMDs, chemical weapons use in Syria, and Covid-19.

    As such, the government messages of “trust the experts” should be treated with caution.

    [Especially when they are selective about who qualifies as an “expert”, and ignore prominent figures who disagree – ed.]

    PREJUDICE

    We all have conscious and unconscious prejudices or accepted viewpoints based on peer pressure. One example which comes to mind is among some even in alternative media circles. They say, “Assad is a brutal dictator, but didn’t gas his people”.

    They’ve looked at the evidence to establish the latter, but have unconsciously swallowed the unsubstantiated media propaganda on Assad as a person.

    Peer pressure, pre-determined positions, and ideology are barriers to independent thinking. But just being mindful of these pitfalls when reviewing evidence helps to get to a more open-minded mindset.

    FINAL THOUGHTS

    To those who’ve researched and studied evidence and applied this to global events, it’s apparent that mainstream thinking at all levels doesn’t resemble the reality. Nowadays, a mainstream position on the most important events can be ripped to shreds.

    Covid-19 and lockdown are by far the biggest event which has affected all our lives. Therefore, I’d expect the important questions about the real risks and proportion to gather pace.

    In the meantime, we should spend the time in lockdown looking at the evidence in the round.

  • As China Fumes Over Trump's "Gross Interference" In Hong Kong, Here Are 6 Things It Can Do In Retaliation
    As China Fumes Over Trump’s “Gross Interference” In Hong Kong, Here Are 6 Things It Can Do In Retaliation

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 22:30

    Following Trump’s Friday announcement of watered-down measures against China and Hong Kong, which included stripping Hong Kong of some of its privileged trade status as a result of Beijing’s crackdown on the island and threatening to kick out select Chinese students but falling well short of a “nuclear option” including sanctions on individuals and institutions and the expulsion of Chinese banks from SWIFT, Hong Kong’s government said actions threatened by President Donald Trump are “unjustified” and repeated that China is within its “legitimate rights” to pursue new national security laws that Beijing says will help quell months of unrest.

    The People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of China’s Communist Party, wrote that the plans outlined by Trump at the White House on Friday were “gross interference” in Beijing’s affairs and were “doomed to fail.” In a second commentary published Sunday on its front page, the newspaper accused the U.S. and Western politicians of “double standards” and “shameless hegemony” for their criticism of the legislation. Meanwhile, China’s ambassador to the U.S. wrote in a Bloomberg Opinion editorial that the central government has the ultimate responsibility for upholding national security in Hong Kong, and that the proposed legislation “will protect law-abiding citizens.”

    And while Trump was widely seen as conserving ammo for future potential escalations, the market stormed higher on Friday amid optimism that the US president does not intend to pursue a more aggressive response over China’s de facto take over of Hong Kong. In fact, officials from Hong Kong wrote in a 949-word statement that they’re “not unduly worried” about the sanctions and trade restrictions proposed by Trump.

    Hong Kong will continue to rely on rule of law, judicial independence, and a free and open trade policy, according to a statement issued Saturday evening local time.

    The proposed legislation “does not give rise to fears of the loss of liberties by its people that will warrant international debate or interference by another country” and such fears are “simply fallacious,” the Hong Kong government said in its statement.

    “We note with deep regret that President Trump and his administration continue to smear and demonize the legitimate rights and duty of our sovereign to safeguard national security in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region which in turn is aimed at restoring stability to Hong Kong society,” the statement said.

    Cui Tiankai, China’s U.S. ambassador, wrote on Saturday that Hong Kong was “a romantic fusion of the East and the West.”

    “To our regret, such romance is evaporating,” the envoy wrote. The violent actions of protesters against police, citizens and property there there had crossed “a red line” for Beijing, he said. “Hong Kong is in disarray. China’s national security is at risk. That is why the central government has chosen to act.”

    China’s rubber-stamp legislature on Thursday approved a proposal for sweeping new national security laws for Hong Kong, but it could take Chinese officials months to sort out details of laws banning subversion, secession, terrorism and foreign interference.

    Meanwhile, the People’s Daily again underscored that China would be firm in responding to any U.S. moves, without specifying what actions Beijing might take. In Sunday’s commentary it said the proposed legislation is a rightful move to defend China’s sovereignty and compatible with international practice.

    * * *

    So what actions might Chinese policymakers take to deter these shifts in US policy, or in response to them?

    According to Goldman’s economist Alec Philips, Chinese policymakers will take a somewhat reactive stance to US criticisms and demands on trade and other issues, at least publicly, in an effort not to escalate tensions. However, the forcefulness of the response could vary depending on how closely US actions strike at China’s strategic interests, and whether practical retaliation options exist that appear proportional and do not escalate frictions. For trade issues, the 2018-19 playbook of imposing retaliation only after the US has actually changed policy, and even then responding proportionately or slightly less than proportionately, will likely remain in force. Some possible retaliatory actions from Chinese policymakers in trade and other areas could include:

    1. Trade sanctions or tariffs on US exports. This particular Chinese response seems most likely in the event of a phase 1 deal breakdown. This was China’s response of choice during the trade war, although the scale of the response was typically less-than-proportional, reflecting both a desire to limit escalation and the smaller amount of US exports to China. If the trade deal were to break down and the Trump administration increased tariffs on China, expect to see a Chinese response of this type. (In theory, China also could conceivably impose formal or informal constraints on Chinese buying of US goods or “service exports” e.g. limit tourism or the flow of students studying in the US, as we have seen occur with some other regional trading partners in the context of political frictions–e.g. Chinese group tourism fell off sharply in Korea in 2017. However, such a response would have little impact at present given that tourism and international education have collapsed amid COVID-19.) It is doubtful that tariffs would be used as a response to other US actions beyond trade.
    2. Actions against US companies operating in China. US sanctions on Huawei recently expanded to include foreign companies selling a “direct product” of US technology, e.g. semiconductor chips made using US equipment. In response, Chinese policymakers might take actions unfavorable to US firms in China. These could include regulatory measures that complicate or prevent operation of a business. Chinese policymakers originally mooted the concept of an “unreliable entities list” about a year ago in the context of sanctions on Huawei and other Chinese companies; though it is unclear precisely what the consequences of being labeled “unreliable” would imply, presumably it would be very detrimental for sales within China. Retaliating in this way is not without cost: it could undermine policymakers’ efforts to present China as an attractive investment destination. It would also be outside WTO norms and could undermine China’s case for relief in that body.
    3. Export restrictions. Another possible response to US sanctions on particular companies, or other US actions constraining supplies to China, could be restrictions of Chinese exports to the United States. Rare earth minerals have been frequently cited in this context. China is a dominant supplier and substitution using other materials is difficult, so if China were to decide to restrict exports of rare earths to the US the effect could be significant. Indeed, Chinese state media threatened supply restrictions on rare earths following the initial round of sanctions on Huawei last year. That threat has prompted the US government to take measures to develop rare earth production and refining capacity in the United States. Another very sensitive area could be medical equipment and supplies, which are in great demand around the world given the coronavirus crisis, and where the US sources significant amounts from China. But the perception issues around curtailing supplies in this area would be significant, and third countries could potentially re-route such goods to the United States.
    4. Exchange rate depreciation. Chinese policymakers could choose to more readily accept currency depreciation, or even take active steps (such as weaker USDCNY fixings) to encourage it. Currently, the CNY is trading near multi-year lows against the USD but at more moderate levels against the CFETS currency basket…
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      … reflecting broad USD strength. In recent days, policymakers have signaled moderate resistance to further depreciation by setting the daily USDCNY fixing stronger than other factors would imply.
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      Currency weakness might help exports on the margin, but could also intensify capital outflow pressures; although policymakers appear to have quite good control of the capital account following the chastening experience of volatility in 2015-16, their appetite for experimentation in this area is likely limited. We think the chance of an engineered depreciation is very small, though policymakers would likely accept some modest depreciation if tensions continue to intensify, especially if there were a breakdown in the trade deal or a major increase in capital outflow pressures.

    5. Large-scale sales of US asset holdings. At times of friction, the notion that China might sell its large holdings in US government securities as retaliation for trade actions surfaces in media commentary. (The latest Treasury International Capital data show Chinese holdings of $1.08 trn in US Treasuries as of the end of March, which are almost entirely from the official sector as China holds roughly $3 trn in FX reserves; in addition, agency holdings are on the order of $200bn and there could be additional assets held via custodians in other countries). For their part, US policymakers seem to have briefly entertained, but quickly discarded, the idea of trying to extract payment for damages related to the coronavirus from China’s holdings of Treasury debt. Here Goldman views disruptive actions by either the US or China in this area as unlikely. Abrupt large sales of Treasury securities or other US assets could tighten financial conditions well beyond the United States, so would appear an unattractive approach for Chinese policymakers for both political and economic reasons. However, a gradual reduction of US securities in the portfolios of SAFE and CIC is certainly a possibility-as overall reserve assets have been essentially flat, and the portfolio appears overweight US assets relative to trade weights. In fact, Chinese holdings of US debt have been unchanged for years, and while China is not dumping its TSY holdings, it certainly isn’t adding to them. Chinese policymakers might also choose to reduce the duration of their government securities holdings, which at least on the margin would push up long-term interest rates. Having said that, even a meaningful re-weighting of Chinese official assets out of US securities (say 5% of China’s total reserve assets per year or $150bn) would be small in comparison to the recent ramp-up in asset purchases by the Federal Reserve.
    6. Change in stance on geopolitical issues of concern to the United States. President Trump has in the past linked trade policy to foreign policy in his comments, for example in the case of China’s cooperation in managing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. For example, in December 2018 he explained “I have been soft on China because the only thing more important to me than trade is war…If they’re helping me with North Korea, I can look at trade a little bit differently, at least for a period of time. And that’s what I’ve been doing. ” More generally, Chinese policymakers could choose to be more, or less, helpful in regard to geopolitical issues of interest to the United States as US policies towards China change. This sort of cooperation would presumably be evident to the intelligence community and senior US policymakers, but not necessarily to markets or the general public.

  • Stocks Dancing On Deck For Titanic U.S.-China Clash
    Stocks Dancing On Deck For Titanic U.S.-China Clash

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 22:00

    Authored by Bloomberg macro commentator Garfield Reynolds

    Complexity is causing global investors to underprice the danger from U.S.-China confrontations over Hong Kong. Far from being just a regional issue, the world’s two largest economies are sliding toward a more markets-negative showdown than anything we saw in the first three years of Donald Trump’s presidency.

    Global stocks are trading as though this round of tensions will be resolved in a similar fashion to the 2018-19 trade conflict. Even though that caused plenty of damage to the world economy, there were limits to the field of battle. And as the phase-one trade accord showed, a fudged resolution was possible. The market reactions were obvious despite the confusing ebb and flow of the underlying story – more tariffs meant lower stocks and yields, fewer tariffs the reverse. The yuan predictably weakened sharply when the tariff threat escalated in May/June 2018 and again in the summer of 2019.

    This year’s geopolitical cage-match has the potential to develop into a winner-takes-all affair, as the superpowers spiral into a Thucydides trap.

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    The always-difficult task of pricing in the risk of an extreme outcome is further complicated by the backdrop of extraordinary stimulus and Covid-19. That may explain why, beyond H.K. assets, it’s only the yuan which seems to be showing a sustained reaction.

    Trump’s mild China comments on Friday spurred a rebound in risk assets, but the longer-term outlook remains skewed to the downside, as witnessed by fresh rhetoric over the weekend.

    There’s a real threat of the global economy splitting into competing camps, raising costs and cutting productivity across industries as companies are forced to diversify and duplicate supply chains while they balance politics and profits.

    China accounted for almost a quarter of world economic growth this century and is central to sustained global rebound from the pandemic. Australia, Vietnam and South Korea stand out as Asian stock markets whose outperformance in May only makes them all the more vulnerable to a U.S.-China fallout.

    • AUD/USD and the S&P/ASX 200 are surging now as Australia flattens its Covid-19 curve, but their longer-term outlook is clouded by disputes with the nation’s biggest trading partner.
    • The Kospi is almost 40% above its March low, even as South Korean data remain dire. The U.S. and China account for ~40% of the country’s trade, and many of its semiconductor shipments to China go via Hong Kong.

    U.S. equities will also be in the firing line. Some of the Chinese companies targeted by listing rules were key drivers for the Nasdaq’s recent surge. Wall Street banks may miss out on billions, while companies like Apple, Intel, Nvidia have strong China exposure. Nvidia gets more than half its revenue from Greater China; Apple’s supply chain is dependent on suppliers based in China, South Korea and Taiwan.

    On a positive note, European assets will gain extra allure. The potentially game- changing moves toward fiscal unity on the continent are an attractive contrast to Washington and Beijing’s shift toward geopolitical confrontation.

    Perhaps recent moves by both sides are just posturing and the story will fade away soon but the signs aren’t good. In just the past two weeks, China has shown an increased willingness to challenge the U.S., Australia, India and others on a diverse array of issues. On the U.S. side, China-bashing has bipartisan support in the context of November’s election.

    The market impact to the latest iteration of U.S-China tensions is far more complex to analyze than the damage from the trade war. Investors are wrong to mistake that for meaning it will be less damaging.

  • "We're All Suspects Now": A Look Inside The NSA's New "Contact Chaining" Tool
    “We’re All Suspects Now”: A Look Inside The NSA’s New “Contact Chaining” Tool

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 22:00

    Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man

    New book explores NSA’s “contact chaining” tool

    What happened:

    We all know Edward Snowden revealed that the NSA collects and stores massive databases of information on Americans’ phone call and text metadata.

    But then what? Most people think it sits on ice until and unless an alphabet agency like the FBI, CIA, or DHS wants to dig through it.

    In reality, it is processed into a detailed map of your social contacts, constantly updating with new data.

    Everytime you make a phone call or send a text, a new piece of data enters the government’s hands, and they update the map of your social contacts.

    A new book explores the “contact chaining” tool, which is an essential second piece of the collection and storage of mass metadata.

    What this means:

    This tool allows the NSA to play “six degrees of separation” to connect you to almost anyone.

    They call it “contact chaining,” as in, determining who you are linked to. They know better than us who is in our inner circle, who are our casual contacts, and who is a friend of a friend.

    This is so much broader than the government seeing when you sent a text. They can map out your entire social life.

    And as coronavirus “contact tracing” comes into effect, it would be wise to remember just how dangerous it is for the government to have such detailed information on all Americans.

    Everyone is being investigated, before they are ever suspected of committing a crime. We’re all suspects now.

    * * *

    Ohio judge blocks state from enforcing lockdowns against gyms

    What happened:

    A week before the Ohio lockdown order was lifted, two dozen gyms that sued the state won the first round of the lawsuit.

    A judge placed a preliminary injunction against the state, saying police and officials cannot enforce the lockdown orders against the gyms. Gyms could reopen, without threat of legal consequences.

    The judge said government officials relied on faulty legal reasoning to say they had the authority to close down every gym in the state for two months.

    The government’s powers to quarantine and isolate applies to individual instances. It cannot be used as a wide net to encompass every business and individual across the state, regardless of their coronavirus status.

    What this means:

    The governor said he didn’t “think it’s a big deal” since gyms were set to reopen less than a week after the ruling anyway.

    That is tone deaf, as many politicians are at this point.

    They have destroyed countless businesses with their authoritarian orders. So it is a big deal when courts strike them down.

    Maybe governments won’t be able to overreach so far next time.

    * * *

    Judge rules FBI can’t even look at your phone’s lock screen without a warrant

    What happened:

    When police arrest a suspect, they inventory personal items like a cell phone.

    During the process of powering down a phone, it is reasonable for law enforcement to see the phone’s screen.

    That had already happened in this case.

    But then an FBI agent went to the evidence locker, took out the suspect’s phone, and powered it on. The specific purpose was to gather evidence from the phone’s lock screen– the display that shows up before entering a passcode to access the phone.

    But the FBI agent did not bother asking a judge for a warrant. And that made it an illegal search under the Fourth Amendment protections against unreasonable search and seizure, according to a judge.

    The evidence was thrown out.

    What this means:

    When we are so used to the government doing whatever it wants, and not facing any consequences, little victories like these are encouraging.

    There is a reason the Constitution attempted to restrict law enforcement and government powers when it came to the rights of the accused.

    Otherwise, it is far too easy for the government to go digging around for a crime, without ever suspecting one in the first place.

    And with the number of petty laws and victimless crimes out there, we are all guilty of something

  • The FAAMGs Are Up 15% In 2020; The Remaining 495 S&P Stocks Are Down 8%
    The FAAMGs Are Up 15% In 2020; The Remaining 495 S&P Stocks Are Down 8%

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 21:33

    One month ago, Goldman triggered a selloff in growth and momentum stocks, when it pointed out that  the five largest S&P 500 stocks, the FAAMGS (or MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, FB) have risen to account for 20% of index market cap, representing the highest concentration on record…

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    … resulting in the lowest market breadth since the tech bubble…

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    … and warning that “narrow market breadth is always resolved the same way” as “narrow rallies lead to large drawdowns as the handful of market leaders ultimately fail to generate enough fundamental earnings strength to justify elevated valuations and investor crowding. In these cases, the market leaders “catch down” to weaker peers.”

    In short, as we wrote – somewhat jokingly – in April that “The Market Is Now Just 5 Stocks“, that’s precisely what has happened, with investors flooding into the buyback-funded momentum of the largest tech names …

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    … and creating the biggest “hedge fund/mutual fund/retail/momentum hotel” ever assembled in the FAAMGs. And here is an update to one of the most amazing statistics of 2020 from Goldman: YTD the 5 biggest stocks are up 15% while the remaining 495 S&P500 companies are lower by a collective 8%, with the overall S&P400 index is down 5% YTD (compare to four weeks ago here).

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    Here are Goldman’s comments on this bifurcation in the market:

    The return of the S&P 500 index overstates the performance of the typical stock. The equity capitalization-weighted S&P 500 index has rebounded by 35% from its low and now trades just 11% below its all-time high. The index return since the start of the year is -6%.

    The average stock has returned -13% YTD. The equal-weighted S&P 500 index trades 15% below the record high and has lagged the cap-weighted index by 650 bp this year.

    The stellar return of the five largest stocks in the S&P 500 — MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, and FB — is the primary explanation for the large difference between the cap-weighted index and the average stock.

    While the FAAMGs may grow further, there is a hard limit on just how much bigger they can get:

    At 20%, the current aggregate index weight of the five stocks with the largest market caps is the highest in history, exceeding the previous peak of 18% at the apex of the Tech Bubble in March 2000. However, we are approaching the practical maximum concentration of 25% given most long-only portfolio managers have diversification requirements and individual stock position limitations of roughly 5%.

    Incidentally, this historic bifurcation of the “market” into two sets of stocks is also why Goldman is skeptical about further upside:

    Broader participation in the rally will be needed in order for the aggregate S&P 500 index to climb meaningfully higher. Goldman Sachs equity research analysts currently forecast just 1% upside for the cap-weighted group of the five stocks. The modest upside for the largest stocks means the remaining 495 constituents will need to rally to lift the aggregate index.

    Luckily, there is nothing like a weekend of nationwide looting and violence to spark a broad-based market rally and push the policy tool formerly known as the S&P500 back to all time highs to convince everyone that nothing is fucked here.

  • As China PMI Disappoints, Another Major Problem Emerges
    As China PMI Disappoints, Another Major Problem Emerges

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 21:30

    Overnight, China’s NBS reported that in May, manufacturing PMI signaled a continued recovery in factory activity, albeit at a slower pace than in April and below expectations (50.6, exp.51.0, down from 50.8). Sub-indexes in the manufacturing surveys suggest export order sub-index remained weak and employment deteriorated further.

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    Of note, the manufacturing employment sub-index weakened to 49.4 from 50.2, implying continued deterioration in the labor market. On the other hand, inventory indicators suggested a destocking trend, with raw material inventories declining to 47.3 from 48.2, and the finished goods inventory sub-index declined to 47.3 from 49.3 in April.

    Yet even as China’s factories are starting to hum again, a new problem is emerging as executives are now worried that the rebound could falter on weak demand both at home but especially abroad, something we warned about some time ago when we warned that China’s push to produce at all costs will eventually backfire.

    Justin Yu, a sales manager at Zhejiang-based Pinghu Mijia Child Product that makes toy scooters sold for American retailers, is among those seeing their order book improve from the depths of the coronavirus lockdown, but remain well below normal.

    Quoted by Bloomberg, Yu said that “we are seeing more orders coming in this month as we get closer to our normal peak season,” Yu said. “But our orders are still 40-50% lower than last year.” The factory’s production capacity is running at about 70% to 80%, and Yu is making to order to avoid any build up in stock.

    The disconnect between China’s recovering production and still dormant demand had shown up in data revealing a rise in inventories and once again contradicting the official PMI numbers which as noted above, show that to be easing. China’s fake data aside, the worry remains that sustained overproduction will lead China’s factories to keep cutting prices, compounding global deflationary headwinds and worsening trade tensions, before they eventually cut back on production and therefore even more jobs.

    “The supply normalization has already outpaced demand recovery,” said Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale SA. “In other words, the recovery so far is a deflationary recovery.”

    Which is another way of saying it is not a recovery at all, and the US, whose economy remains largely shut is not helping.

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    So given the weak export outlook, manufacturers such as Fujian Strait Textile Technology are switching their business models to target the home market, according to Bloomberg. It used to sell 60% of its products to Europe and the U.S. before the coronavirus crisis wiped out those sales. Now, Dong Liu, the company’s vice president, is looking for opportunities at home.

    “Our company executives have started to visit the local market to make more potential clients know about us,” he said. “Since May 26, we have been producing 24 hours everyday at full capacity. All the inventory has already been sold and we’re rushing to make goods.”

    Alas, the domestic-focused strategy also has numerous drawbacks: while China’s consumers are largely free to resume their regular lives as fresh virus cases slow to a trickle, they too aren’t spending like they used to (almost as if they also don’t believe Beijing’s solemn vows that everything is back to normal): retail sales slid 7.5% in April, more than the projected 6% drop. Restaurant and catering receipts slumped by 31.1% from a year earlier, after a 46.8% collapse in March.

    “Although demand conditions are improving on the margin, they will still take a long time to recover to where they were before the virus crisis. Investment is picking up, domestic consumption improving and external demand is less bad than it was” said Chang Shu, analyst at Bloomberg Economics. The question, of course, is how much time.

    In Zhenjiang, Jiangsu province, Melissa Shu, an export manager for an LED car lighting factory, said although orders are steadily improving, there’s no sense of urgency from her clients and the outlook remains uncertain. “We’re just making goods slowly,” Shu said. “We are worried about the coming months.”

    * * *

    As Bloomberg speculates, some producers may be hoping for a real-life enactment of Say’s law, a part of economic theory which suggests that ultimately supply will create its own demand, as long as prices and wages are flexible, although in China where every datapoint is manipulated and fake, nobody really knows what the current state of the economy is.  Various real-time indicators continue to pain a mixed picture.

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    Another scenario proposed by UBS is that industry self-corrects adversely. The bank’s chief China Economist Wang Tao points to strong steel production during the depths of the coronavirus lockdown, even when demand was weak. Higher inventories means that even as demand recovers, steel production won’t show much of a pick up. And once producers know that orders are falling, they will adjust output.

    “I do not think supply will outstrip demand for long – once inventories build up, or producers know orders are falling, production will come down as well,” she said.

    Should unemployment continue rising, that could trigger a very messy feedback loop. Premier Li Keqiang in a press conference on Thursday highlighted job creation as a critical priority for the government. The urgency to create jobs may mean there’s even less likelihood of a shake up of state owned companies in the heavy industrial sectors that have historically fueled excess production. It also means that even more ghost cities may be coming.

    The disconnect is already clear in data points that show, for example, stronger coal consumption by power plants and rising blast furnace operating rates by steel mills, while at the same time gauges for property and car sales are improving more slowly. That combination, according to Bloomberg, will drag on China’s growth over the coming months, according to economists at Citigroup.

    The problem for China’s industrial sector is that it really needs both local and global demand to be strong. If both are weak, and only the government is “injecting” support, it’s a dire outlook. But if local demand recovers and global demand doesn’t, there are still problems.

    The best summary of China’s “big problem” came from Viktor Shvets, head of Asian strategy at Macquarie Commodities and Global Markets: “At the end of the day, China’s economy is driven by demand and right now there is no demand,”

    A scenario where manufacturers capacity originally dedicated to the export market is retooled to produce for the home market instead would still lead to overproduction. Then the supply-demand mismatch would end up adding to deflationary pressures and a pose fresh headwinds to economic growth, according to Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at research firm TS Lombard.

    For now, China’s factory owners are hoping that won’t happen but their optimism is waning fast.

    Grace Gao, an export manager at Shandong Pangu Industrial that makes tools like hammers and axes – around 60% of their goods go to Europe – is seeing orders come in as her clients get up and running again. But even as things pick up, Gao remains hesitant to call a full recovery. “Our clients are facing unprecedented problems,” she said. “It’s still hard to estimate when we’ll get back on our feet.”

  • Where Is Ghislane Maxwell Now?
    Where Is Ghislane Maxwell Now?

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 21:00

    Authored by Gabrielle Bruney via Esquire.com,

    Jeffrey Epstein is dead, but the accused pedophile financier is still surrounded by multiple mysteries. The source of his vast wealth still isn’t entirely known, nor have rumors that he may have trafficked women and girls to some of the world’s most powerful men been resolved. But one of the biggest lingering unknowns in the story is the status of Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein’s longtime companion, who’s been alleged by Epstein survivors to have recruited young women and girls into the multimillionaire’s circle and participated in their abuse.

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    Maxwell has denied all accusations of being involved in abuse, and she’s never faced criminal charges. But it’s hard to know much more than that when it comes to her recent years, because no one knows exactly where she is.

    “I’ve heard she’s in Brazil, I’ve heard she’s in France, I’ve heard she’s in California,” Lisa Bryant, director of the Netflix docuseries Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich, told Esquire.

    “Who knows where she is, really?”

    Who is Ghislaine Maxwell?

    Maxwell is the youngest of Elisabeth and Robert Maxwell’s nine children, and was born in France in 1961. The family lived in an English mansion, and her father was the founder of a media empire and served in Parliament. Maxwell attended one of the UK’s most exclusive boarding schools and then Oxford University. As members of British high society, Maxwell mingled with some of the nation’s most celebrated families, and became friends with Prince Andrew.

    Her father died in 1991, after falling off his yacht and drowning. It’s been speculated that his death may have been a suicide, as on the day he died he was due to meet with the Bank of England over the matter of his being in default on millions in loans. After his death, the British media dubbed him the “crook of the century,” when it was revealed that he’d taken hundreds of millions of pounds from his employees pension funds. Maxwell told one news outlet after her father’s death that she felt he was murdered.

    She moved to the United States the year of her father’s death, and soon met Jeffrey Epstein. The relationship marked a second reversal of fortunes for Maxwell, whose family lost much of its wealth after her father’s death. In 2000, she moved into a $4.95 million Manhattan townhouse purchased “by an anonymous limited liability company, with an address that matches the office of J. Epstein & Co. Representing the buyer was Darren Indyke, Mr. Epstein’s longtime lawyer.” She was his companion for years, managing his households and introducing him to her society friends

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    Maxwell and her father in 1984.

    According to a lawsuit she filed this year in hopes of winning funds from the late financier’s estate, “While under Epstein’s employ, Maxwell was responsible for managing Epstein’s properties located in New York, Paris, Florida, New Mexico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.”

    “During the course of their relationship, including while Maxwell was in Epstein’s employ,” the lawsuit reads, “Epstein promised Maxwell that he would support her financially. Epstein made these promises to Maxwell repeatedly, both in writing and in conversation.”

    However, a 2003 Vanity Fair profile of Epstein denied that Maxwell was an employee.

    After Epstein’s 2008 conviction for soliciting prostitution from an underage girl, the two appeared to end their public association. In 2009, accuser Virginia Roberts Giuffre filed a civil suit against Epstein accusing him and Maxwell of grooming her into their alleged sex trafficking ring. However, Maxwell remained a fixture in New York society until around 2015. In 2012, she founded an environmental nonprofit called The TerraMar project, which folded in late 2019.

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    Epstein with Maxwell in 1995

    Has she been charged with any crimes?

    Though multiple survivors have alleged that Maxwell participated in Epstein’s alleged crimes, she’s never been criminally charged. One thing that could stymie potential efforts to level charges against Maxwell is the infamous 2008 plea deal that Epstein struck with the US Attorney for Miami, Alexander Acosta, which found him serving just 13 months in prison after initially facing charges that could have garnered him a life sentence. Jeffrey Epstein: Filthy Rich producer Joe Berlinger described the deal to Esquire as “unprecedented, unheard of sweetheart deal” that “included a non-prosecution agreement for named and unnamed co-conspirators.”

    In April, an appeals court upheld the 2007 deal, writing in its opinion that the decision was “not a result we like, but it’s the result we think the law requires.”

    Maxwell is currently suing Epstein’s estate for money for her legal fees, and for the price of private security, alleging that her “prior employment relationship” with Epstein has caused to her be subjected to death threats.

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    Maxwell at a 2016 event.

    Where is Ghislaine Maxwell now?

    Though once a fixture of the global high-society, Maxwell has been spotted rarely in recent years. Last summer, she was photographed at a Los Angeles In-N-Out Burger, though the authenticity of the photo has been disputed. Her New York townhouse was sold in 2016.

    This month, it was reported that lawyers for accusers seeking to file a civil suit against Maxwell have been unable to locate her. According to ABC news, one alleged victim’s “legal team dispatched process servers to five addresses previously connected to Maxwell, including a multi-million dollar brownstone on Manhattan’s Upper East Side, an apartment building in Miami Beach and Epstein’s mansion on Palm Beach Island.”

    Maxwell is also contending with other civil lawsuits filed by alleged survivors. Just this month, she won the right to delay her questioning in a suit filed by Annie Farmer, the sister of fellow Epstein accuser Maria Farmer, on the grounds that her testimony could be used against her in a current criminal investigation. But with the FBI allegedly investigating Maxwell, her story could be far from over.

  • "The Dollar Is Out Of Stock Everywhere": Hong Kong Money Exchangers Turn Away Clients Amid Run On US Dollars
    “The Dollar Is Out Of Stock Everywhere”: Hong Kong Money Exchangers Turn Away Clients Amid Run On US Dollars

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 20:30

    Even before protests over a controversial extradition bill sparked the tumultuous pro-democracy movement that swept across Hong Kong last year, the notion that the city’s freedoms were under threat, and that China would soon move to curtail them, had been gestating since the 2014 Umbrella Movement. Last Spring, before the movement began in earnest, Kyle Bass published a paper entitled “the Quiet Panic” about how Hong Kong was a ticking time bomb. A few months later, it exploded.

    Over the past 16 months, expats haven’t been the only ones fleeing Hong Kong. Virtually everyone who can afford to move has at least considered the possibility of selling their once extremely valuable Hong Kong real estate and fleeing elsewhere, perhaps to New Zealand, or Australia, or Malaysia – or Taiwan, which is currently drawing up plans to welcome expats.

    As we reported on Friday, as more prepare to move before China tightens its grip, Sing Tao, Hong Kong’s second-largest Chinese-language newspaper observed that Hong Kong residents have been exchanging more of their HKD holdings into foreign currencies at banks and money exchange counters on Thursday.

    It got so bad that according to a follow up report from the SCMP on Saturday, the rush for US dollars forced money exchangers in Hong Kong to turn away hundreds of customers after running out of the currency amid fears the United States could end the city’s preferential trading status.

    According to money exchange store owners, demand for the US currency surged this week after China’s legislature endorsed a resolution for its top legislative body to craft a tailor-made national security law for Hong Kong which would criminalize acts and activities of secession, subversion, terrorism and foreign interference.

    In kneejerk response, HK residents – fearing the Hong Kong dollar could be unpegged from its US counterpart – rushed to convert their local currency into something they view as more stable: the US dollar.

    Long lines promptly formed at money changers in a number of Kowloon districts including Tsim Sha Tsui and Sham Shui Po on Friday, as residents waited for shop operators to replenish their US dollar supply. Eric Wong Wai-lam, who runs Rich Bird Currency Exchange in Sham Shui Po, was forced to turn away 600 customers who wanted to convert their local banknotes to the US currency.

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    Queues formed at money changers in a number of Kowloon districts including at this shop in Tsim Sha Tsui; Photo: Edmond So, SCMP

    “There will be no US dollars for exchange until next Tuesday or Wednesday,” he told customers, adding that his shop could only serve those who had previously placed an order. He explained that demand for the US currency had increased 10-fold this week, with more customers looking to switch large sums – hundreds of thousands or even millions of Hong Kong dollars – at a time.

    “The US dollar is out of stock everywhere. We’ve offered every last bit of our supplies to our customers,” Wong said adding that residents also sought alternatives such as the pound, Euro and Australian dollar. “People will take anything you have,” he said.

    As the SCMP further details, civil servant Mike Ma had hoped to change HK$35,000 (US$4,514) into US dollars, but had to make do with £1,000 (US$1,237) and NT$20,000 (US$666) instead. The 35-year-old British National (Overseas) passport holder said he had been keeping foreign banknotes since Hong Kong was gripped by anti-government protests last year, but had visited exchange stores more often this week because of uncertainties over the city’s economic future.

    Kevin Chan, operator of an online shopping site, bought US$3,000 on Friday, saying he had been doing so from time to time since the social unrest broke out. “It’s like buying insurance,” the 31-year-old said.

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    A customer manages to get US dollars at Rich Bird (HK) Currency Exchange in Sham Shui Po. Photo: Edmond So, SCMP

    Chan said panic buying of the US dollar reflected how Hong Kong had found itself in the middle of a political tug of war between the world’s two superpowers. “[China and the United States] are bluffing now. You don’t know what stakes they will raise next. Hong Kong is in a passive position. It’s just a pawn to both sides,” Chan said.

    “I’m not confident about the current situation, same as many others. In case the US dollar peg is reset, buying the US dollar beforehand gives me more confidence.”

    The Hong Kong currency has been linked to the US dollar since 1983 and any change in the peg does not require approval from the US government. The Hong Kong government determines which currency the local dollar is pegged to. The currency is kept pegged in the range of HK$7.75 to HK$7.85 to the US dollar.

    Eddie Yue Wai-man, chief executive of the local central bank, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, said earlier this week the peg would remain the bedrock of the city’s financial system, with foreign reserves of more than US$440 billion. And while the city had yet to show any noticeable sign of fund outflows from the Hong Kong dollar or banking system, the market is starting to crack. Though spot HKD has been trading toward the strong end of its band as the Fed slashes rates to zero amid growing speculation the US central bank may soon follow through with negative rates, Kyle Bass’s bet against the currency peg, which critics once slammed as absurd and unlikely to pay off, is becoming increasingly popular as a trade as derivatives markets price in growing expectations for depreciation.

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    Even Hong Kong’s largest banks, HSBC, saw a small handful of its automated teller machines run out of US dollars, but was working to replenish them. The bank has 39 locations that offer foreign currency, but not all distribute US dollars. Customers can withdraw up to HK$80,000 per day per bank card.

    “HSBC has sufficient supply of banknotes and is committed to supporting its customers and the smooth operation of the financial system in Hong Kong,” a HSBC spokeswoman said.

  • Pompeo: China Is Intent Upon The Destruction Of Western Ideas, Western Democracies, And Western Values
    Pompeo: China Is Intent Upon The Destruction Of Western Ideas, Western Democracies, And Western Values

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 20:13

    Looking at the Yuan, Bloomberg’s macro commentators Mark Cranfield correctly writes that “any downside extension for USD/CNH after President Trump left the phase one trade deal untouched will be short lived. There is enough uncertainty over the U.S.-China relationship to maintain an underlying bid for the dollar.”

    Cranfield is right, if for another reason: while Trump may have left the Phase 1 trade deal in place for now, at this point this is purely theater, for the simple reason that China is woefully behind on its signed contractual commitments to import a set quantity of US agircultural, energy, and manufacturing exports.

    As Goldman writes over the weekend, “there is a clear risk—if not a likelihood—that US exports to China will fall short of the Phase 1 deal.” So far, the Administration appears to be taking a wait-and-see approach to this and could continue to do so for a while, since the export targets were intended to be met over a 1-2 year timeframe, and the deal was only signed four months ago. But if Trump decides that China has not met its commitments under the Phase 1 trade deal – which it clearly hasn’t – he would take the initial step of taking the tariff rate on Tranche 4A back to 15%, according to Goldman.

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    As a result, while ignoring Trump headlines looks to be the right strategy in the short term for traders, Cranfield notes that this “may change when the U.S. election race gets into prime time.” So while record highs for USD/CNH may have been delayed after last week’s all tim ehigh, “they are still the path of least resistance in the weeks ahead”, according to the Bloomberg commentator.

    And just to give the yuan selling a kickstart higher, here is Mike Pompeo on Fox News, pouring some more gasoline on the raging dumpster fire that is US-China relations, saying that “this is a Chinese Communist Party that has come to view itself as intent upon the destruction of Western ideas, Western democracies, and Western values. It puts Americans at risk, whether it’s stealing American intellectual property or destroying jobs here in the U.S.”

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    Hardly the stuff one hears if de-escalation is just around the corner.

  • Schlichter: This Election Is Republicans Versus China
    Schlichter: This Election Is Republicans Versus China

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 20:00

    Authored by Kurt Schlichter, op-ed via Townhall.com,

    It’s pretty clear who the commie bastards known for their shoddy lab practices and their weird fetish for gnawing on pangolins badly want to win in November, and it’s not Trump and the Republicans. The Chinese communists want their money’s worth, and they will go all-in for the Democrats who find the chance to hurt Trump at the same time they hurt America too delicious to pass up. Plus, the Dems heartily approve of what Mao’s Pals are doing to freedom-loving Hong Kongers, seeing it as a template for what they would love to do to freedom-loving us. 

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    We need to understand and accept that a vote for anyone with a “D” is a vote for Xi.

    Now, some people who are stupid and/or liars will whine that this is mean and unfair and totally unlike the last four years of accusations about Trump and his folks being the pet of Vladimir Putin whose treason has perpetually had the walls closing in whilst the Grand Marshal of the Supreme Court was poised to frog-march them all to a C-130, next stop Gitmo. And it is totally unlike the Obamagate/Russiagate thing, in that with the Obamagate/Russiagate thing was a manifest lie and the accusation that the CCP is holding the pink slip of the Donkey Party in its bat soup-moistened hands is true.

    Let’s look at Joe Biden for a moment, though it will have to be on video since the Geppettos holding his strings are not letting him out of his Delaware dungeon unless a miracle happens and he becomes a real boy.

    This is the guy that went publicly incontinent when the Great Wall Gang was shipping Typhoid Mulans over here and Trump cut off that insanity. Travel bans were racist, you know, until they weren’t. And this guy wants to be president, when he remembers he is running for president, though his priority was not saving American lives but not vexing Beijing. This guy is so far in the Red Menace’s pocket that he’s risking lint poisoning.

    They channel the digital Dem, asking, “Come on man, is it too much to want a president who takes America’s side?

    Well, to the Democrats, the answer is a responding, “Yes, and don’t assume my gender.”

    Now, Biden always sides with the PRC because, like the elite whose Guccis he slurps, he’s totally comfortable with the Chinese supplanting the USA as the world’s preeminent nation – that’ll show those flag-waving flyover rubes who’s not boss! The totally-not-senile politician opposed Trump’s tariffs and his attempts to level the playing field, and Hi-Bidder Biden would sign agreements to lock in the former Deliverance trade model. His response to the People’s Liberation Army arms build-up that threatens our Pacific Fleet would be, “Hey man, I believe in building-up arms! I work out and I am strong and I can do more push-ups than you, fat!

    Here’s the other thing. Remember all that idiotic babble about the Russki kompromat of Trump? That somewhere, Putin had this video library of Trump water-sporting with Muscovite rent girls? Well, we all know Joe’s pride n’ joy Hoover went to China and did a big-bucks deal, probably because he’s such a super-achiever who got where he is on his own talents and not at all drafting after his daddy. So, what else do you think he did when he was there? Explored the Great Wall? Marveled at the Forbidden City? Cavorted with every skeeze the ChiCom intel guys could throuple him up with on video?

    Did it happen? You want to bet it didn’t? We know the guy got booted from the Navy for dope. We know he got zillions from some Ukrainian oligarch. We know he was accused of forgetting his crack pipe in a rental car. We know he impregnated a stripper. We know he was voted “Least Likely to be the Centerfold of Good Judgment Monthly.”

    What are the chances the Chinese Gestapo didn’t try to honey-trap the guy who’s the Winnie the Pooh of hookers n’ blow? What do you think they probably caught him doing on Candid Commie Camera? It’d be like a home movie from Memorial Day weekend in Lake Havasu on Bob Crane’s houseboat.

    But Biden’s not the only guy in hock to the reds. There’s Diane Feinstein, whose Chinese mole chauffer for the better part of two decades was starring in “Driving Senator Oblivious.” And you got the always accommodating Kamala Harris carrying enough water for the reds to top the Three Gorges Dam. Her latest ploy to please her powerful political patrons is to echo the commie agitprop designed to distract from the country’s criminally negligent (or worse) behavior in connection with the bat biter disease by offering a bill to declare calling it the “Wuhan Flu” to be RACISM!

    And there’s Martha McSally’s opponent in the Arizona Senate race who’s a Chinese Communist Party dream come true. Even the media, and you know how it sucks, is reporting that Mark ChiCom Kelly has investments in Chinese tech. He supports Joe Biden and Joe’s policies, which we have seen are Xi’s policies. When Nancy Pelosi tried to pass a $3 trillion “pandemic relief” bill that gave dough to illegals and pot purveyors, did you see him complain that it ignored American defense and contained no spending to put American workers back to work building the equipment we need to oppose his party’s pals? Nah. His focus is on disarming Americans. Not surprisingly, ChiCom Kelly shares the Chinese Communist Party’s position on the Second Amendment – he’s against it.

    “But but but but he was in the Navy and he was an astronaaaaaauuuuuutttt!” 

    Okay, that does not make it better. It makes it much, much worse.

    The fact is that the Democratic Party has a recent hatred of Trump but a long tradition of hating the United States. Its goal for the last half-century has been to supervise the decline of America as a world power, and the fact that the Chinese communists take good care of their friends makes it easier. There is zero doubt that the Chinese government is already all-in on a Biden puppet presidency and that it backs Senate candidates like ChiCom Kelly because it knows it can rely on them to place Xi’s interests ahead of America’s.

    They’ll deny it, of course. But here’s the hard and indisputable truth: This November, you can vote for the Republican Party, or you can vote Chinese Communist Party under another name.

    *  *  *

    Join Townhall VIP  and pre-order my new Regnery book, The 21 Biggest Lies about Donald Trump (and You!), then check out my hit conservative novels People’s RepublicIndian CountryWildfire and especially Collapse, where the ChiComs side with the libs. Wait, that makes it nonfiction. Also, Townhall VIP members should get my podcast “Unredacted” every Monday and my free podcast “Fighting Words” on Wednesdays to reach peak awesome!

  • NYC Mayor De Blasio's Daughter Arrested At Protest; Fire Next To White House; California Hit With Looting, Violence
    NYC Mayor De Blasio’s Daughter Arrested At Protest; Fire Next To White House; California Hit With Looting, Violence

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 19:39

    Update (2150ET): The daughter of New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, Chiara de Blasio, was arrested at a Saturday night protest in Manhattan, according to the New York Post.

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    Chiara de Blasio, 25, was taken into custody around 10:30 p.m. after cops declared an unlawful assembly at 12th Street and Broadway in Lower Manhattan, the sources said.

    “That was a real hotspot, police cars were getting burned there, people were throwing and yelling, fighting with cops. There were thousands of people in that area at that time,” the source said.

    She gave 181 East End Avenue as her address, otherwise known as Gracie Mansion, the mayor’s Upper East Side residence. –New York Post

    The very next day, de Blasio warned that “Change is coming in this city.”

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    Meanwhile, a fire has broken out near the White House:

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    Update (2100ET): Tensions continued to flare in Los Angeles, where a police SUV was filmed ramming through a blockade of protesters – nearly running over one in the process.

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    Elsewhere in Los Angeles:

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    500 miles to the north in the East Bay, residents of upscale Walnut Creek have been advised to avoid Broadway Plaza.

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    Update (1950ET): The driver in the Minneapolis incident has been arrested.

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    * * *

    Update (1911ET): A little over an hour has passed since Philadelphia’s 6pmET curfew went into effect – because nothing says “deescalation” like a daytime curfew – Sunday night’s “demonstrations” are already devolving into sickening violence on par with what we saw last night.

    Around 1pm local time, looting broke out at a strip mall in Santa Monica and elsewhere across LA, while the situation in West Philadelphia worsened, with the rioters and looters spreading – while peaceful demonstrators continued their demonstrations in some cases offering a convenient cover for the criminality of looters – in LA, Philly and elsewhere.

    The situation is getting so bad, Santa Monica just moved its curfew to 4pm – 30 minutes ago – because of the looting. LA County moved its curfew to 6pm local time. Tampa Florida announced a curfew starting at 7pmET (45 minutes ago).

    One notable scene in Santa Monica showed looters attacking an Amazon van and running off with packages.

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    Why are the drivers even out after Amazon asked them to turn back? Could it have something to do with the company’s plans to end COVID hazard pay?

    A report from California officials claimed the situation in Santa Monica was “deteriorating rapidly”, and that “police have been called in from other parts of California to assist.”

    More looting going on in West Philly with nobody coming in to stop them. Some exasperated locals wondered whether the elected Democrats in the city would use force to protect small businesses, as videos showed several big box stores, including a family dollar, being looted.

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    Protests broke out across New York City, with groups in Manhattan and Brooklyn. One notable scene that emerged on social media: vandals attacked St. Patrick’s Cathedral in midtown, one of the most sacred Catholic Churches in the world.

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    Though, notably, protests in brownstone brooklyn, home to mostly white yuppies and trust fund babies who live on hand outs from their parents (leaving them plenty of free time to protest), remained mostly peaceful, at least during the early hours, with only small pockets of vandalism and violence across the city.

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    Video from Chicago showed looters packing cars with stolen goods.

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    One looter traveled all the way from Indiana to Santa Monica to join in the looting.

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    Intermingled with familiar images of nonviolent demonstrators were clips of looting and unprovoked cruelty, like this gang of street hooligans setting a homeless man’s belongings on fire in Austin, Texas.

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    Twitter users flew into hysterics over this video of a tanker truck “plowing” into a crowd of protesters. Except nobody was seriously injured – at least not according to initial reports – and a closer examination merely shows the driver approaching a crowd, then stopping, before being mobbed by “peaceful demonstrators”.

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    Minnesota had reportedly closed its highways an hour before the incident took place, but vehicles were still apparently trying to make their way through amid crowds of pedestrians – an extremely dangerous mix.

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    Once again, violence erupted outside the White House, where tear gas was liberally shared.

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    Meanwhile, more market analysts are questioning whether the market can simply shrug off all of this carnage.

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    * * *

    As America braces for a third night of “protests”, governors and mayors across the country are calling in the national guard, imposing curfews and taking other more aggressive measures to stop a third night of chaos and destruction that’s virtually guaranteed to rattle investors in the US – and possibly around the world – when markets open in a few hours.

    Already, crowds have returned to downtown Philadelphia where the situation was already starting to spin out of control on Sunday afternoon. The city experienced the same type of mass violence – looting, rioting, skirmishes between black-clad anarchists and the police, and, of course, molotov cocktails – last night as the violence spread from Minneapolis to more cities across the country.

    Ahead of what’s shaping up to be a second night of violence in the city of brotherly love (soon to be renamed the city of brotherly muggings), police have released an update on the number of arrests made last night, as well as details of injuries sustained by police officers.

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    Fifteen police officers were injured last night, with one officer admitted to the hospital with a broken arm broken ribs after he was struck by an SUV.

    Only a few hours have passed since several “peaceful” protests commenced down town, and already looters are tearing up Kensington Avenue.

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    And it’s only getting worse.

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    Police have begun to respond to “select break in incidents” according to a reporter covering the unrest.

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    In parts of the city, the looting hasn’t stopped, as looters returned in the morning and afternoon as battles with police escalated.

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    As a peaceful demonstration moved toward city hall, a tense exchanged erupted as locals confronted two “professional” protesters who were urging the crowd to “take it further” – ie escalate violence against the police – in retribution for George Floyd.

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    To be sure, not all of the demonstrations in the Greater Philly area were violent: Some marches on Sunday afternoon remained largely peaceful, like in Atlantic City…

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    …where police shut down traffic, preventing outsiders, who reportedly cause most of the trouble, from entering.

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    Protestors will gathered at 1 pm on Sunday in front of City Hall for a peace rally advocating for justice and a change to policies that provoke police brutality. A march from the Ben Franklin Bridge to the Liberty Bell at 5th and Markets Street also started around noon, according to local media reports.

    But by mid-afternoon the situation had already turned violent. In response to the riots and violence, Mayor Kenney and Commissioner Outlaw addressed citizens Sunday afternoon, announcing a mandatory, city-wide curfew set to resume at 8pm Sunday, and last until 6am.

    “The peaceful protests earlier were touching showings of our collective grief. The anger being displayed now cannot continue. Please have respect and dignity for each other and return home,” Kenney stated.

    However, as the looting and violence intensified in the afternoon (in Philadelphia at least, it never really stopped) the city moved the curfew up to 6pm.

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    In addition, all retail stores have been ordered to close immediately. Many that haven’t even reopened from COVID yet started to board up windows “as a precaution”.

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    As the violence begins not just in Philly but in Pittsburg and in other cities around PA and the rest of the country, the state police said they were calling troopers from the surrounding area to converge on the cities.

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    PA Gov. Tom Wolf signed a disaster emergency declaration Saturday authorizing the adjutant general of the state National Guard and the Pennsylvania State Police Commissioner to activate personnel to help cities.

    Philly police have already released their first arrest update.

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    During Sunday’s briefing, Kenney and other city officials praised the volunteers who came out Sunday morning to help clean up the damage. “I hope that the story of May 30-31 isn’t about what happened last night but about what happened this morning,” Managing Director Brian Abernathy said.

    To try and prevent a repeat of Saturday’s violence, Outlaw said much of Center City “from South (street) to Vine (street), from river to river’ — from the Schuylkill River to the Delaware River, and including the Ben Franklin Bridge — would be blocked off, affecting roads, bridges and expressway entrances and exits as well as the city’s transit agency, according to the AP.

    While local officials in the US have blamed foreign influence for instigating the violence, it looks like the protests are spreading around the world, to the US embassies in London and Berlin, and beyond.

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    In Chicago, national Guard troops have been deployed to help the police try and restore order to the chaotic scene, as the city’s progressive mayor Lori Lightfoot pleaded with “protesters” for calm.

    Though many of the rioters, looters and protesters have worn masks, as the country braces for another night of chaos, it should be interesting to see how the infection/hospitalization numbers out of some states change in the coming days and weeks, especially considering that LA County reported some record numbers on Sunday.

     

  • NBA Star JR Smith Expresses His Disappointment At "Motherf**king White Boy" Damaging His Truck
    NBA Star JR Smith Expresses His Disappointment At “Motherf**king White Boy” Damaging His Truck

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 19:34

    Every rioting liberal muppet has a plan until someone punches them in the face…

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    …and that bastardization of Mike Tyson’s infamous quote could not apply any better to NBA star JR Smith and the young white dude who decided – for now apparent reason – to damage a truck parked in a residential area in LA.

    As TMZ Sports reports, the 6’6″, 225-pounder unleashed a barrage of violent kicks on the man – landing several times in the head.  When the guy finally stands up on his feet, Smith delivered a final punishing overhand right to the guy’s noggin.

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    After the event, Smith explained the attack in an emotionally charged video – saying:

    “One of these motherfu**king white boys didn’t know where he was going and broke my f**king window in my truck.”

    “I chased him down and whooped his ass,” Smith said.

    “He didn’t know whose window he broke and he got his ass whooped.”

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    Notably, Smith says the incident was not fueled by race or hatred – it was simply revenge for messing with his truck.

    We have one awkward question – as much right as Mr. Smith had to punish this mindlessly-violent idiot for damaging his property… we wonder what the reaction among the media and intelligentsia on Twitter would have been if a 6’6″, 225lb white guy was kicking the crap out of skinny young black dude who damaged his car (or store?).

  • Citi Warns "Markets Are Way Ahead Of Reality", Urges Clients To Raise As Much Money As They Can Before The Next Crash
    Citi Warns “Markets Are Way Ahead Of Reality”, Urges Clients To Raise As Much Money As They Can Before The Next Crash

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 19:30

    If the 35% surge in the S&P in the past two months seems too good to be true as even hard-core optimists like JPM’s Marko Kolanovic now admits, announcing that he is “dialing down” his optimism while Goldman sees little upside for stocks from here…

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    … it’s probably because it is, as the latest Wall Street professional to join the chorus of naysayers and skeptics including such luminaries as David Tepper and Stanley Druckenmiller, claims.

    In an interview with the Financial Times, Manolo Falco, Citigroup’s co-head of investment banking said that financial markets were “way ahead of reality” with tougher times to come, and is warning corporate clients that they should raise as much money as they could before the pandemic’s true cost is factored in by investors.

    We definitely feel that the markets are way ahead of reality. We really are telling every client to tap the market if they can because we think the pricing now couldn’t get any better,” Falco said, adding that “as the second quarter comes along and we start seeing the pain, and the collateral effects of that, we think this is going to be much tougher than it looks.”

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    Manolo Falco, Citigroup’s co-head of investment banking.

    His comments came at the end of a week when stock markets largely rallied even as relations between the US and China just hit rock bottom, as riots were about to break out across the US which now has more than 40 million unemployed, and as millions of businesses around the world remained shut and economies lurched towards their worst recessions in memory.

    “Markets are pricing a V [shaped recovery], everyone’s coming back to work, and this is going to be fine,” Mr Falco said. “I don’t think it’s going to be that easy quite frankly” said the investment banking icon who just made Robinhood’s shitlist.

    Investors’ optimism led investment grade companies to raise a record $1 trillion of debt in the first five months of the year, putting investment banks such as Citi on course for a surge in debt capital markets revenues in the second quarter of the year compared with 2019.

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    Citi is not the only bank to take advantage of the bond issuance feast, which has been explicitly backstopped by the Fed which as we learned last week has been busy buying up over a dozen ETFs.

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    Last week senior bankers predicted another strong quarter for trading. This was especially true at JPMorgan Chase, whose investment bank boss Daniel Pinto said trading revenues in the second quarter could be up as much as 50% compared with a year earlier.

    Falco was more circumspect on the prospect of a wave of activist investment in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis. Low asset prices can tempt activist investors to buy into companies on the cheap and then look for ways to make them more profitable, often by cutting costs and jobs, but mostly issuing more debt (although with corporate leverage now at even record-er levels than just 2 months ago it is unclear just who has the capacity for even more debt).

    “You gotta be careful though because an activist can become very quickly a focus of governments if they really step in too hard at a time when people, what they want is to protect employment and to actually get things going in the economy,” Falco said. “We’ve got to be careful because in some cases . . . maybe those [investments] are at the wrong time and could create a lot of anger.”

    We doubt that: in fact, if activist investors step up and end up causing millions more to be fired, it will simply mean that the government’s free handouts will have to be extended even further, Congress will have to pass even more stimulus bills, and the Fed will have to monetize even more debt bringing us that much closer to the period of runaway inflation so eagerly sought by the Federal Reserve.

    In other words, more layoffs mean win, win, wins for everyone, except those who still believe in working hard and saving, of course.

  • Buybacks Are Back: Here's Who Is Repurchasing The Most Stocks
    Buybacks Are Back: Here’s Who Is Repurchasing The Most Stocks

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 19:25

    On Friday, Citi rekindled a mystery, or as we called it – a conundrum – that plagued markets for much of 2019: how was it possible that stocks have been rising (shaprly) even as outflows from equity funds have soared?

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    Source: @sbarlow_ROB

    Citi’s explanation was simple: according to strategist Robert Buckland, the 31% global equity rally since March lows has probably been driven by short covering, given the $120b outflows the asset class suffered over the period.

    Perhaps too simple, because while one of the concerns in recent weeks has been that companies have tapered stock buybacks, that’s not exactly true as the following table of recent buyback announcements indicates.

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    And while most sectors have indeed frozen buybacks, one group of companies stands out: we’ll let readers spot it.

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    Which is why to Citi’s assumption that it is all short covering, we will just add that the $65 billion in tech buybacks did not hurt. Oh, and incidentally, it just may explain the dramatic divergence between tech and everyone else.

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  • "It's A Setup": Mysterious Brick Piles Appear Throughout Major Protest Cities
    “It’s A Setup”: Mysterious Brick Piles Appear Throughout Major Protest Cities

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/31/2020 – 19:15

    Mysterious pallets of bricks have been filmed throughout major riot hotspots across the country, in what appears to be more evidence that organized groups are using the George Floyd protests to incite chaos and terrorism throughout the US.

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    Where did the bricks come from? Who delivered them? And are any official investigations underway?

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    Need more evidence of an operation? What’s this:

    And who’s this guy?

    Meanwhile:

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    Perhaps President Trump’s decision to designate Antifa a terrorist organization will yield some answers.

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Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 31st May 2020

  • As The World Burns…
    As The World Burns…

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Chris Martenson via PeakProsperity.com,

    Personal safety & security are quickly becoming more important in this era of growing social rage

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    Decades of unfairness are now boiling over in the United States in the form of protests, riots, burning buildings and violence.

    Minneapolis is on fire – literally – and the unrest has spread to numerous other major cities.

    Last year (2019) The Yellow Vest protesters in France dealt with enormous amount of police violence and intimidation as they put life and limb on the line to try and wrest better economic and living conditions for themselves.

    The people of Hong Kong are back out in force again now that the Coronavirus threat has abated, seeking greater autonomy and control over their own lives. Last year (2019) Chileans also protested, seeking better wages and living conditions.

    While the specific demands of each of these movements are unique, they all share common causes.

    Our analysis at Peak Prosperity is this: the days of constant exponential growth on a finite planet are drawing to a close. All of the systems that govern the sharing of resources among humans – political, economic and especially financial – are designed to concentrate, not share, wealth.

    Taken together, we have an economic pie that is no longer growing but is subject to a set of laws and financial predation that guarantee the wealthy get more than their fair share of what remains.

    This leads to increasingly visible, palpable unfairness.

    Primates hate that:

    In today’s world, it’s grapes for the elites and cucumbers for the rest of us (if we’re even that lucky).

    That’s been the model for a long time, but lately it’s been both accelerating and exposed for all to see.

    Team Elite™ is busy gorging on grapes. It has granted itself $trillions of freshly printed dollars from the US Federal Reserve in order to prop up ‘their fair share of things’ like bonds, stocks, and derivatives.

    That leads to these sorts of jarring headline juxtapositions:

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    (Source and source)

    Without any question whatsoever, the Federal Reserve has been printing up money like crazy and stuffing it into every crevice of the US financial markets in a bid to…well, drive up financial asset prices.

    They’ve been extremely tone deaf the entire way while pretending that their aim isn’t to make the rich richer, or deliver fatter profits to banks. Of course, both of those things are indeed happening as a direct result of the Fed’s policies and anybody with eyes can see that — yet the media refuses to acknowledge this.

    Really, it’s extremely easy to identify. Here’s what ‘grapes for the wealthy!’ looks like — see that $3 trillion spike since April?

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    All of that printing leads to some stocks now being at their priciest ratio to earnings ever:

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    That means that those holding them are being rewarded like never before. And don’t forget that the richest 10% of Americans own over 84% of all stocks

    We also see the same price-goosing with bonds. Corporate bonds are now once again approaching historically low yields which means, in the see-saw language of bonds, they are almost as pricey as they’ve ever been. In history:

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    Who received the benefits of that gigantic cluster of grapes that the Fed has lavished upon the bond markets?

    Well, the owners of all those bonds of course, and the major corporations now able to borrow at rock bottom costs even as small and medium sized enterprises are being wiped out.

    As I often say, the Fed doesn’t actually create wealth, it redistributes wealth.  While doing that it is both directly and indirectly picking winners and losers.

    The above chart of corporate bond yields says the Fed is picking large corporations and the wealthy elite  over small companies and Main Street folks.

    Of course, there are no grapes quite as sweet as the ‘special interest’ varietals that are served to only the wealthiest of real estate investors:

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    The only thing that could make this worse would be for some White House official to condescendingly insult all us regular people by referring to us in non-human terms.

    Oops:

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    (Source)

    I have dozens more such examples. But I trust you get the point: the vast unfairness of the US system is now exposed for all to see. And that inequity has become even more predatory in our hour of need during the Covid-19 pandemic. Which is why social frustration and angst are now in the process of boiling over.

    The reason why is as old as civilization itself, showing up ever since the first group of humans organized themselves into a cultural pyramid:

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    People often ask me why I shake my angry monkey-fist at the Federal Reserve so often. It’s because of the above quote. I’m the sort that prefers to avoid unnecessary pain and suffering. The Federal Reserve seems to be institutionally ignorant of the above fatal ailment.

    What the Fed is doing is wholly unnecessary and manifestly unfair. It will lead to tears yet, regrettably, it is completely avoidable. Grapes for Wall Street, and cucumbers (or worse) for everyone else. It’s just how they’re wired. They literally cannot help themselves,. So things are certain to get worse before they get better.

    It All Boils Over

    The institutional failures of the Federal Reserve aside, there are also the obvious failures of management (I can’t bring myself to call them ‘leadership’ anymore) at our major health institutions, politicians who are far quicker to the rescue of major corporations than constituents, politicized and even falsified ‘science’ coming from formerly respected institutions, the list goes on and on.

    Every one of these breaches of public trust undermines our collective safety and security. Beyond some incalculable level the foundation gives way.

    The lowest level of management in this story are the police. For decades many police departments have been heavily militarized and trained often by Israelis who’ve done a remarkable job embedding the mindset of occupying forces into US policing.

    Toss in some unresolved racial biases and animosity, civil asset forfeiture, no-knock raids for petty reasons that routinely result in innocent lives being violently taken, and you’ve got a tinder pile waiting for a spark.

    George Floyd was that spark. A particularly callous officer with a long string of unpunished claims of excessive force and violence lodged against him, knelt on George’s neck until he was dead while 3 other officers stood by and casually watched.  Against the backdrop outlined above, this was one flagrant abuse too many.

    Editorially, the person now being vetted as a possible VP for the Biden campaign, Amy Klobuchar was the prosecutor in Minneapolis for many years who could have delivered justice to the lower classes. Let’s check her record:

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    Sadly, this is a record that can be found in hundreds of other cities. It’s neither an uncommon nor a defensible record. As a reminder, in the aftermath of the Michael Brown killing and riots in Ferguson MO (2014) the justice department came in and discovered that in a city of 20,000 mostly poor people there were 16,000 outstanding arrest warrants.  Think about that for a second.

    Many for infractions like ‘impeding pedestrian flow’ (a.k.a. standing on the sidewalk). The humans were little more that ATM livestock for the police and court machinery to exploit.

    And so, with the killing of George Floyd, Minneapolis exploded.

    There’s More Unrest On The Way. Get Prepared.

    Welcome everyone to these turbulent times.

    We all want to live in a just, fair, and safe world. Some people are born into peaceful times. Others aren’t so lucky. History goes through its turnings.

    Well, here we are, smack in the middle of a whopper of a fourth turning. So let’s make the most of it.

    I take the safety and security of myself and the people around me very seriously. Because it’s my responsibility I train, and I plan, and I think things through.

    My home is in a town I judge to be very safe, and I’m not the fearful sort, so I really have to push myself to prioritize the other steps. Which I am doing because it has to be done.

    The calm days are over. There’s a new future coming, one that promises to be a lot more interesting as the old Chinese saying goes.

    I wish I believed that the worst of the social unrest was behind us. I don’t. Given the actions of the Fed and Plutarch’s quote, and the total lack of any pushback from the media on these matters, I am anticipating grapes for the elites and worse-than-cucumbers for everyone else for many years to come.

    Which means it’s time for you to more seriously consider your approach to personal security, especially if you live in or near a city. I certainly am.

    As a true mark of the turning, a growing number of my friends who would never have considered owning a gun before are now thinking about doing so. All sorts of formerly ‘hard’ decisions suddenly become up for grabs when folks start feeling more physically vulnerable.

    But personal security is far more than ‘owning a gun.’ It’s a mindset as well as a behavior set. And above all, it’s about avoiding trouble in the first place.

    It includes taking sensible steps to protect your home from being an easy target for crime. It means having a plan and well-practiced skills in place to keep yourself and your loved ones safe from violence. It means aligning with neighbors to watch each others’ backs. It means practicing with whatever tools or systems you adopt so that they are second nature to you if you ever have to use them.

    For those without extensive experience and training (which I assume is just about everyone reading this), the best presentation I’ve ever seen covering the practical essentials you need to know to maximize your odds of staying safe is this video from Peak Prosperity member Tom C., a 19-year veteran inner city police sergeant, given at our most recent annual seminar:

    Here’s a brief 3-minute clip from it in which Tom is fielding Q&A on the audience’s top concerns:

    Tom’s full seminar presentation is 48 minutes long and addresses key safety & security issues including how to reduce your threat risk profile, situational awareness, what to do (both mindset and actions) if in danger, how to create “layers” of defenses, as well as good home security options. Peak Prosperity’s premium members can watch it in full here.

    Not a premium member yet? Enroll now to get access to the video.

  • The Road To Recovery: Which Economies Are Reopening?
    The Road To Recovery: Which Economies Are Reopening?

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 23:00

    COVID-19 has brought the world to a halt – but, as Visual Capitalist’s Iman Ghosh details below, after months of uncertainty, it seems that the situation is slowly taking a turn for the better.

    Today’s chart measures the extent to which 41 major economies are reopening, by plotting two metrics for each country: the mobility rate and the COVID-19 recovery rate:

    1. Mobility Index
      This refers to the change in activity around workplaces, subtracting activity around residences, measured as a percentage deviation from the baseline.

    2. COVID-19 Recovery Rate
      The number of recovered cases in a country is measured as the percentage of total cases.

    Data for the first measure comes from Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, which relies on aggregated, anonymous location history data from individuals. Note that China does not show up in the graphic as the government bans Google services.

    COVID-19 recovery rates rely on values from CoronaTracker, using aggregated information from multiple global and governmental databases such as WHO and CDC.

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    Reopening Economies, One Step at a Time

    In general, the higher the mobility rate, the more economic activity this signifies. In most cases, mobility rate also correlates with a higher rate of recovered people in the population.

    Here’s how these countries fare based on the above metrics.

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    Mobility data as of May 21, 2020 (Latest available). COVID-19 case data as of May 29, 2020.

    In the main scatterplot visualization, we’ve taken things a step further, assigning these countries into four distinct quadrants:

    1. High Mobility, High Recovery

    High recovery rates are resulting in lifted restrictions for countries in this quadrant, and people are steadily returning to work.

    New Zealand has earned praise for its early and effective pandemic response, allowing it to curtail the total number of cases. This has resulted in a 98% recovery rate, the highest of all countries. After almost 50 days of lockdown, the government is recommending a flexible four-day work week to boost the economy back up.

    2. High Mobility, Low Recovery

    Despite low COVID-19 related recoveries, mobility rates of countries in this quadrant remain higher than average. Some countries have loosened lockdown measures, while others did not have strict measures in place to begin with.

    Brazil is an interesting case study to consider here. After deferring lockdown decisions to state and local levels, the country is now averaging the highest number of daily cases out of any country. On May 28th, for example, the country had 24,151 new cases and 1,067 new deaths.

    3. Low Mobility, High Recovery

    Countries in this quadrant are playing it safe, and holding off on reopening their economies until the population has fully recovered.

    Italy, the once-epicenter for the crisis in Europe is understandably wary of cases rising back up to critical levels. As a result, it has opted to keep its activity to a minimum to try and boost the 65% recovery rate, even as it slowly emerges from over 10 weeks of lockdown.

    4. Low Mobility, Low Recovery

    Last but not least, people in these countries are cautiously remaining indoors as their governments continue to work on crisis response.

    With a low 0.05% recovery rate, the United Kingdom has no immediate plans to reopen. A two-week lag time in reporting discharged patients from NHS services may also be contributing to this low number. Although new cases are leveling off, the country has the highest coronavirus-caused death toll across Europe.

    The U.S. also sits in this quadrant with over 1.7 million cases and counting. Recently, some states have opted to ease restrictions on social and business activity, which could potentially result in case numbers climbing back up.

    Over in Sweden, a controversial herd immunity strategy meant that the country continued business as usual amid the rest of Europe’s heightened regulations. Sweden’s COVID-19 recovery rate sits at only 13.9%, and the country’s -93% mobility rate implies that people have been taking their own precautions.

    COVID-19’s Impact on the Future

    It’s important to note that a “second wave” of new cases could upend plans to reopen economies. As countries reckon with these competing risks of health and economic activity, there is no clear answer around the right path to take.

    COVID-19 is a catalyst for an entirely different future, but interestingly, it’s one that has been in the works for a while.

    Without being melodramatic, COVID-19 is like the last nail in the coffin of globalization…The 2008-2009 crisis gave globalization a big hit, as did Brexit, as did the U.S.-China trade war, but COVID is taking it to a new level.

    – Carmen Reinhart, incoming Chief Economist for the World Bank

    Will there be any chance of returning to “normal” as we know it?

  • The Mysterious Missing Link – Anti-Malaria Drug & Zinc
    The Mysterious Missing Link – Anti-Malaria Drug & Zinc

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 22:30

    Authored by Joseph Berry via The Conservative Woman blog,

    Mystery surrounds why an anti-malaria drug is not being tested as a Covid-19 treatment in combination with zinc, which doctors say is crucial for efficacy.

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    As we reported recently, President Trump revealed he was taking hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) alongside zinc after reports that many doctors are doing the same to help ward off Covid-19. 

    Criticism of the President rose sharply after a non-randomised study published in the Lancet said that HCQ provided no benefit to hospitalised Covid-19 patients while being linked to increased deaths. 

    What the mainstream media did not point out is that the Lancet study failed to test HCQ with zinc. Other experts have found zinc to be vital for efficacy in this context.

    Zinc, available as an over-the-counter supplement, has long been seen as an immune-system booster that helps develop immune cells, or antibodies, and can strengthen the body’s response to a virus.

    American infectious disease specialist Joseph Rahimian explained that, in relation to Covid-19, zinc ‘does the heavy lifting and is the primary substance attacking the pathogen’. HCQ is said to work as a delivery systemfor zinc in fighting coronavirus.

    Ironically, the Lancet study came out at the same time as it was reported that India’s premier health body had expanded use of HCQ as a preventive for key workers following three studies showing positive results. 

    Conflicting reports and political axe-grinding have thickened the fog of war on this, but we know a number of things:

    1. HCQ has been around for decades and is a ‘safe’ treatment for malaria and other conditions including lupus and arthritis (as the BBC has acknowledged). 

    2. Many doctors (and India) use HCQ as a preventive measure, as President Trump is now doing. A survey of doctors by a leading American physician staffing firm found that 65 per cent would give HCQ to their own family as a prevention or treatment. The UK is now conducting trials into whether HCQ can help prevent Covid-19. Results are not expected before the end of the year, although there will be results sooner from similar trials in the US.

    3. International experience suggests HCQ can be effective in tackling Covid. Reports from FranceItaly and Spain point to positive results from the use of HCQ, while a number of other countries are seeing success including TurkeyCosta RicaAlgeriaBelgium and Bahrain. This month a Shanghai-based doctor reported that, in China, a combination of zinc, hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin ‘has been able to save coronavirus patients’. 

    4. Many prominent Americans are taking HCQ to treat Covid-19 (and recovering) even as opponents attack President Trump for following the lead of many doctors. Hall of Fame rock star David Bryan, best known as the keyboardist for Bon Jovi, tested positive and was treated with HCQ, among other things. By late April, he was said to have recovered. Former Democratic presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar has now admitted her husband was treated with HCQ after he contracted coronavirus. After his rapid recovery, Senator Klobuchar said (through gritted teeth): ‘I believe he did briefly take that drug.’

    Sadly it doesn’t seem to be the priority of most mainstream journalists, and some in the scientific community, to report the facts on HCQ in a responsible manner. As political commentator Scott Adams recently pointed out, the corporate news (CNN, Fox News etc) has no credibility when it comes to reporting on pharmaceuticals. In this context, this may be partly due to politics, but it is also a result of their financial stake in drug advertising.

    With regard to reporting of the Lancet’s finding about increased deaths, Adams asked whether this should be seen as a surprise ‘given that we know the HCQ can have some heart issues with people who already have heart issues. Do [elderly people who are dying from coronavirus] have strong hearts? Probably not’.

    He added:

     ‘What they don’t do on CNN is mention that if you don’t test it with the zinc [then] I’m not sure that you’ve really tested the thing that has the most promise. Where is that [test]?’

    He has a point. A number of doctors say zinc is essential.

    California emergency physician Dr Anthony Cardillo said during a local television interview:

    ‘[HCQ] really only works in conjunction with zinc. Every patient I have prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within eight to twelve hours they were basically symptom-free and so clinically I am seeing a resolution.’

    This frontline experience was backed up by a study by the New York University Grossman School of Medicine published this month. It found that those receiving the triple-drug combination (HCQ, with azithromycin and, crucially, zinc) ‘were 44 per cent less likely to die, compared with the double-drug combination (i.e. without zinc)’.

    As the study notes:

    ‘This study provides the first in vivo evidence that zinc sulfate in combination with hydroxychloroquine may play a role in therapeutic management for Covid-19.’

    The above makes the question of why zinc was not used in the Lancet study more baffling. And why don’t the media note that the combination of zinc and HCQ is crucial?

    As Scott Adams put it:

    When they say the President is taking this drug that is killing people . . . it is not true. It is basically a lie . . . Both Fox News and CNN are doing something is completely illegitimate . . . I don’t know any reason you would do that other than to mislead.’

    Sadly, with a Presidential election approaching, it’s doubtful whether the barrage of fake news over this treatment will be replaced by professional reporting. We can only hope that the truth – whatever it may be – will win out in the end.

  • Here Are All The NYC Restaurants That Have Permanently Closed During The Coronavirus Crisis
    Here Are All The NYC Restaurants That Have Permanently Closed During The Coronavirus Crisis

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 22:00

    In a world where hotels and restaurants already face a dismal future, a new study has found that nearly two-thirds of publicly traded restaurants are at risk of bankruptcy as the Covid-19 pandemic batters the industry. The odds of failure are even higher for small companies and restaurants that specialize in dine-in, consulting firm Aaron Allen & Associates said in an analysis. It identified Bloomin’ Brands, Potbelly and Chili’s owner Brinker International Inc. among those at greater risk according to Bloomberg.

    “It’s really the full-service model that’s in the biggest danger,” principal Aaron Allen said. “Some of those that are in casual dining – a lot of those had already been bleeding cash, bleeding locations.”

    And while Americans are starting to tentatively venture out again, and restaurants are seeing a modest rebound from rock bottom according to OpenTable data

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    … the dining recovery may be slow with unemployment on the rise, cautious spending and also ongoing concerns about health and safety. This leaves the restaurant industry – already upended by broad stay-at-home orders that led to sharp declines in restaurant sales – facing a bleak future. 

    One of the biggest challenges restaurants face, according to the study, is convincing Americans that it’s safe to dine in. TGI Friday’s is taking unusual steps to lure customers in, including renting party tents to expand dining space to parking lots. “When people are eating outside they feel much safer,” CEO Ray Blanchette said in an interview. Some of their stores in southern states already have patios, he said.

    The difference between the restaurants that survive and those that don’t may come down to which can make customers feel most comfortable, according to Katherine Miller, vice president of impact at the James Beard Foundation.

    “People are going to return to places that they trust first,” she said in an email. “Mostly trust to keep them safe.”

    Unfortunately, for the following landmark New York City restaurant, it’s too late, as a sizable group has been forced to shutter permanently as the industry contends with colossal losses to the tune of billions of dollars. Among those that have closed are decades-old neighborhood stalwarts like Keith McNally’s Lucky Strike, along with some newer establishments like Randall’s Barbecue on the Lower East Side.

    According to Eater, this may just be the beginning of permanent closures, however, as rent and utility payments continue to mount in the coming months. There’s also no word yet from the state or city governments on when restaurants will be able to reopen, and what that return will look like. In April, a survey conducted by the National Restaurant Association predicted that 4 percent of New York’s roughly 25,000 restaurants had permanently closed after the start of the pandemic, and predicted that another 7 percent would close this month.

    Below is a list of the permanent restaurant closures in NYC so far as catalogued by Eater.

    May 29

    Midtown: The Copacabana — an iconic New York City nightclub whose stage has seen the likes of Harry Belafonte, the Supremes, and Carmen Miranda — permanently closed this month after an 80-year run in multiple locations. A staffer at the nightclub attributed the closure to the novel coronavirus shutdown, adding that the venue planned to return next year at a new unspecified location.

    Times Square: Manhattan’s luxe new hotel the Times Square Edition, which temporarily closed in light of the pandemic, is set to permanently close this August, just one year after its hyped-up Manhattan debut. The hotel is home to several restaurant and bar options helmed by chef John Fraser, including its ninth-floor Terrace Restaurant and the Outdoor Gardens, an all-day American brasserie. The flagship fine-dining restaurant 701West notably received three-stars in the New York Times. The hotel was a partnership between hotelier Ian Schrager and Marriott International Inc.

    Tribeca: Vietnamese fast-casual restaurant Vietspot has permanently closed just two years after opening in the neighborhood. Owner Sophie Nguyen tells Tribeca Citizen that she hopes to fully reopen the FiDi outpost of the restaurant — which is also the original location — when the current restrictions on dining-in are lifted. For now, that outpost is open for delivery and takeout.

    West Village: Japanese grilling destination Takashi has left the West Village after more than a decade in the neighborhood. The novel coronavirus shutdown dealt the tabletop grilling spot “a particularly deft blow,” according to a letter posted to the restaurant’s website by owner Saheem Al. Given the restaurant’s focus on interactive, family-style meals, a pivot to delivery or takeout didn’t make sense, Ali wrote, while the restaurant was too small to make a comeback with dine-in service at reduced capacity.

    West Village: Blenheim, an upscale farm-to-table restaurant in the West Village, appears to have permanently closed without announcement, according to tipsters who described the space as “cleared out entirely.” In its six-year run, the restaurant was known for its “grown-to-order” produce, which comes from two farms in the Catskills also owned by the restaurant. At the time of writing, the owners have not posted a closing announcement to their website or social media page.

    May 22

    Tribeca: Manhattan mini-chain Schnippers has permanently closed its Tribeca outpost, according to local publication Tribeca Citizen. The Schnippers brothers opened the burger restaurant in 2016; the duo had founded and operated Hale and Hearty soups until 2006, when they sold the company. Three other Schnippers remain, in Times Square, Midtown, and the Financial District.

    Upper West Side: Charming French restaurant Bistro Cassis announced that it would close after more than 15 years of business. The Upper West Side bistro remained open for takeout and delivery service through the first two months of the coronavirus pandemic, serving its popular French onion soup, rack of lamb, and steak frites to locals in the neighborhood. Despite an outpouring of support from customers online, though, the restaurant shared that its last day would be May 11.

    Upper West Side: Upper West Side’s counter-service kosher spot Effy’s has permanently closed according to an announcement from the restaurant’s owners. The seven-year-old restaurant was beloved in the neighborhood for its breakfast and brunches, which highlighted Mediterranean and Israeli dishes. Although the owners did not cite a reason for closing, a chalkboard sign in front of the restaurant last week did share hopes to serve diners again at another location in the city.

    May 15

    Chelsea: Boston-based tapas restaurant Toro NYC will not be reopening following the coronavirus pandemic. The restaurant — an expansion of the successful, original Toro restaurant operated by JK Food Group — posted a message to its Facebook and Instagram accounts in March, announcing that its “staff will not have a restaurant home to come back to when this pandemic ends.”

    East Village: Michelin-starred sushi omakase spot Jewel Bako has closed its doors for good, EV Grieve reports. The restaurant — “one of the most enjoyable places to enjoy sushi in the city,” according to New York Magazine — posted a sign to its door earlier this week advertising an “open house sale” with kitchen appliances, supplies, and wine for sale. The team’s nearby chef counter Restaurant Ukiyo has closed as well, the owners confirm to Eater.

    Flatbush: The Brooklyn location of Wolf and Lamb Steakhouse has closed as a result of the novel coronavirus pandemic, owner Zalman Wuensch announced over Facebook. “After nearly a decade serving the Brooklyn Kosher community, we are sad to announce that due to issues related to the corona crisis, Wolf and Lamb is sad to be closing our Brooklyn location,” Wuensch said. The steakhouse’s midtown Manhattan location is temporarily closed but plans to reopen when it is safe to do so.

    Fort Greene: After more than six years in the neighborhood, Fort Greene’s Greene Grape Annex has permanently closed. The airy cafe — known for its naturally-lit dining room, late-night hours, and many, many planter boxes — closed due to the coronavirus pause, says owner Amy Bennett in an email to her staff. “I look forward to a time where things are back to (a new) normal and the kind of neighborhood social interaction that Annex fostered comes back,” she says. The Greene Grape Annex is survived by the nearby Green Grape Provisions grocery store and Greene Grape Wine and Spirits, where some of the cafe’s staff will be rehired.

    Greenpoint: Cherry Point, an English-inspired farm-to-table restaurant, shuttered after four years due to the coronavirus shutdown. The bistro was best known for its selection of meats, which earned it a loving two-star review from Times critic Pete Wells last year. Owner Vince Mazeau says he fought to keep the restaurant open so that his staff could continue earning money, but in March, the weight of upcoming rent payments became too much. Mazeau arranged an agreement with his landlord to postpone rent payments while he sought out a lease takeover.

    Hudson Square: The huge flagship store of chocolatier Jacques Torres has decided not to renew its lease, a decision made before the coronavirus crisis. Jacques Torres first debuted this Hudson Square storefront back in 2004, when the mass-market chocolate company was still in its infancy. The company’s well-liked chocolates, chocolate chip cookies, and ultra-rich hot chocolate can still be purchased online and at its six other locations.

    Park Slope: The Brooklyn location of Soho’s popular Blue Ribbon Fried Chicken appears to have permanently closed. A real estate sign in the restaurant’s window lists that the storefront is available for lease, according to a tipster in the neighborhood, while the store’s Open Table page lists the spot as permanently closed.

    Upper East Side: After a successful two decades in the neighborhood, Upper East Side favorite Beyoglu has permanently closed. A sign posted on the Turkish restaurant’s door says that the owners were unable to pay to extend their lease as a result of the coronavirus shutdown. Known for its doner kebab, hummus, and traditional Turkish fare, Beyoglu was particularly popular during warmer months with its outdoor seating that stretched around the corner.

    Washington Heights: Popular Irish pub Coogan’s has closed after more than 30 years in Washington Heights. The owners of the restaurant had received a temporary rent moratorium from their landlord but were unable to pay the cost of the leases on their restaurant equipment, according to the New York Times. The neighborhood stalwart was able to avoid closing once before, back in January 2018, when more than 14,000 people signed a petition to save the restaurant from rising rent prices.

    May 8

    Columbus Circle: Two luxury cocktail bars from famed Chicago-based restaurant group Alinea permanently closed on April 15. Despite Alinea’s popularity in Chicago, the Aviary and the Office were received with mixed reviews during their two-year tenures in the Mandarin Oriental hotel at Columbus Circle. Alinea co-founder and restaurateur Nick Kokonas confirmed that the bars were already scheduled to shut down on April 15, a decision made before the COVID-19 crisis.

    East Village: Nearly 100-year-old East Village shop Gem Spa shut down permanently after a tumultuous year. The iconic shop, reportedly the birthplace of the egg cream and long a fixture in NYC’s punk rock and art scenes, had landlord issues and lost its lottery and cigarette license in August, something that represented more than 80 percent of revenue. A robust social media campaign and apparel sales celebrating the shop’s history, though popular, ultimately were not enough to keep it going due to COVID-19’s impact.

    Financial District: One of Lower Manhattan’s oldest bars, the Paris Cafe, has permanently closed after more than a century in the Financial District. The pub was 147 years old, and was almost destroyed during Hurricane Sandy, according to Tribeca Citizen. On March 6, owner Pete O’Connell posted on Facebook that he had no option but to close the Paris Cafe. “Through no fault of anyone but the outbreak of this virus, we are unable to forge a way forward that makes economic sense,” he said.

    Forest Hills: The Irish Cottage, a popular local restaurant that’s been around for 60 years, announced it would be close on May 7. Run by the McNulty family, the restaurant prided itself on Irish tradition and being an active part of the community by hosting fundraisers and live music. Kathleen McNulty, who ran the business since 1986, died in April due to complications from COVID-19; her sons made the decision to close, saying that takeout would not sustain the business.

    Greenwich Village: After 36 years and many accolades, fine dining trailblazer Gotham Bar & Grill has permanently closed. The Greenwich Village institution, which received one Michelin star and three stars from Pete Wells, permanently closed on March 13, at a time when many restaurants were just beginning to announce temporary closures. A spokesperson said it was due to the virus, though a source at the restaurant said that was only part of the reasoning.

    Lower East Side: Well-liked barbecue joint Randall’s served its last pastrami and brisket on April 3, owner and pitmaster Jared Male posted on Instagram. Shortly after opening in August 2018, Eater critic Robert Sietsema stopped in for a visit, where he had some memorable pastrami and brisket.

    Rego Park: Irish pub and restaurant Woodhaven House opted to close permanently due to the “devastating” financial impact of the crisis. The restaurant, known for its live music and cozy, wood-laden space, had been in the neighborhood for 16 years.

    Soho: Neighborhood institution Lucky Strike closed for good on April 15, following more than 30 years in Soho. The French-American bistro from Keith McNally landed on Grand Street in 1989, well before better-known hangouts like Balthazar and Pastis. Despite its popularity, though, McNally shared in a 2016 interview that Lucky Strike didn’t make “any money,” which is at least part of the reason the bistro closed. The crisis, McNally said, made it difficult for the restaurant to work financially.

    Soho: One of New York City’s earliest craft cocktail bar destinations, Pegu Club, has permanently closed after close to 15 years in Soho. Owner Audrey Saunders shared that the bar’s lease was set to expire in October, and though she planned to keep the bar open until then, the coronavirus shutdown “has taken every bit of the life we had out of us.”

    West Village: Daddy-O, the popular West Village dive bar known as hangout spot for local chefs, permanently closed on April 30 after more than 20 years. The bar is responsible for several of the entries on Eater NY’s list of hard-to-find foods in NYC, including Western New York specialties like the “garbage plate,” but it was largely beloved for its vibe as a neighborhood bar.

    Williamsburg: After a 16-year run in Williamsburg and Nolita, Ithaca-based coffee roaster Gimme Coffee permanently closed its two New York City storefronts due to the economic impact of the virus. The coffee roaster’s Williamsburg outpost, which opened in 2003, was among the first third-wave coffee shops in the city, setting the stage for a boom in espresso drinking and indie coffee culture over the next decade.

  • Watch Live: Riots Erupt From Coast To Coast; Curfews Imposed; Stores Looted; D.C. Activates National Guard
    Watch Live: Riots Erupt From Coast To Coast; Curfews Imposed; Stores Looted; D.C. Activates National Guard

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 21:52

    Here’s a live stream of multiple riots across the country:  

    Summary:

    • Peaceful protests quickly turn violent across major US cities 
    • US cities announce curfews after protests turn violent 
    • Protests unfold across from White House 
    • Seven states now activating National Guard troops 

    Protests in major US cities 

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    * * *

    Update (22:10ET): The military police has arrived at the White House…

    … as crowds of protesters gather.

    … and as rioters charge the Police after a reported explosion:

    … and the DC National Guard has been activated:

    …as Military Police from the National Guard are now lined up in front of the White House

    The president does not appear too nervous, tweeting moments ago that he has activated the National Guard in Minneapolis “to do the job that the Democrat Mayor couldn’t do. Should have been used 2 days ago & there would not have been damage & Police Headquarters would not have been taken over & ruined.”

    Meanwhile, NYC is going from bad to worse to downright “Joker.”

    And, just like in Chicago, the island is starting to barricade itself: the Manhattan Bridge is now shut down:

    * * *

    Update (22:00 ET): Curfews are being imposed across the nation in response to the riots:

    • Minneapolis
    • Atlanta
    • Denver
    • Philadelphia
    • Pittsburgh
    • Seattle
    • Cleveland
    • Columbus
    • Portland
    • Miami
    • Milwaukee
    • Rochester, NY

    LA too:

    • L.A. EXTENDS CURFEW TO ENTIRE CITY FROM 8 P.M. TO 5:30 A.M.

    And here’s why:

    • PROTESTERS BREACH BARRICADE ON RODEO DRIVE BEVERLY HILLS, ATTEMPTING TO BREAK INTO THE GUCCI STORE – CBSLA
    • THE NORDSTROM STORE IN THE GROVE SHOPPING MALL IN LA BEING LOOTED – CBSLA
    • NOW LOOTING THE APPLE STORE IN THE GROVE SHOPPING MALL
    • RIOTERS SET BEVERLY HILLS PD VEHICLE ON FIRE – CBSLA

    * * *

    Update (21:53 ET): A police officer in Jacksonville has been stabbed during a protest. According to WTSP, Jacksonville Sheriff Mike Williams said a protester stabbed one of his deputies in the neck and “many people have been arrested” in protests downtown Saturday. Authorities are warning the public to stay away from the downtown area as a protest continues against police brutality.

    Earlier, police officers – seemingly terrified to fight back – were attacked and dragged through the streets of Chicago.

    And in Salt Lake City, a man yelling  “all lives matter” was overpowered after pointing hunting bow at protesters.

    * * *

    Update (21:40 ET): New York is rapidly falling to the rioting mob, with scenes taken straight out of the joker, as cop cars get barricaded by protesters, and while some make their way out…

    … others aren’t so lucky.

    Meanwhile the confrontations between police and protesters are getting all too real:

    The scenes are simply surreal:

    Over in the city of brotherly mugging, things are deteriorating fast too with a cop car on fire, as the Apple store gets looted:

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    A Nike story in Chicago just got rid of some excess inventory:

    * * *

    Update (20:19 ET): Absolutely stunning video emerges from Seattle this evening of a protester commandeering an AR-15 from a police car. Judging by the clip, the weapon had a loaded magazine and holographic sights. 

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    Then, an unidentified man with an AR-15 comes up to the rifle-wielding protester and quickly snatches it out of his hand. 

    Chaos is unfolding across the country – this is history – unprecedented – and will continue for the coming days. 

    * * * 

    Update (19:52 ET): National Guard convoy spotted rolling into Washington, D.C. as social unrest continues to worsen. 

    * * * 

    Update (18:18 ET): It’s Saturday evening, and social unrest unfolds across America as the country quickly descends into chaos. Many of today’s protests started peacefully but have suddenly turned violent.

    Let’s start in Philadelphia, where multiple cars are on fire. 

    Protesters torch a Starbucks at Dilworth Park outside City Hall. 

    Meanwhile, in Dallas, a mob has attacked a line of cop cars.

    Heavily armed Dallas Police shoot tear gas into the crowd. 

    A massive crowd assembles in downtown Miami.

    Protesters shut down a highway in Miami. 

    VOA’s Steve Herman tweeted, “demonstration turns violent” in Chicago. 

    Protesters and police clash in Chicago. 

    In the Fairfax district of Los Angeles, a huge crowd gathers in the streets. 

    Police car lit on fire in downtown Los Angeles. 

    Protesters turn violent at the White House. 

    Protesters swarm highway in San Diego. 

    Massive crowds forming in NYC. 

    Chaos in Times Square. 

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    Police fire tear gas at protesters in Seattle.  

    Massive crowd develops in Cleveland, Ohio. 

    One shocked Twitter user said: “Protestors have arrived in BeverlyHills. I’d never thought I’d see a protest in Beverly Hills. Wow. I hope this stays this peaceful.”

    New reports indicate Colorado National Guard activates after buildings in Denver were damaged with explosives and rioters armed with rifles.  

    None of this is surprising considering the country has just experienced an economic collapse with 40 million people unemployed. Social unrest will likely get worse before it gets better. Riots could continue into next week. It’s only a matter of time before National Guard troops are called up around the country. 

    Watch Riots Across America Live 

    * * *

    Update (13:35ET): Daily Mail reports the Pentagon has told active-duty military police to be ready to deploy to Minneapolis, a move that would hopefully squash the continued social unrest. The last time the military was sent into a US metro area to disperse large crowds was during the 1992 Los Angeles riots. 

    “As unrest spread across dozens of American cities on Friday, the Pentagon took the rare step of ordering the Army to put several active-duty US military police units on the ready to deploy to Minneapolis, where the police killing of George Floyd sparked the widespread protests.

    “Soldiers from Fort Bragg in North Carolina and Fort Drum in New York have been ordered to be ready to deploy within four hours if called, according to three people with direct knowledge of the orders. 

    “Soldiers in Fort Carson, in Colorado, and Fort Riley in Kansas have been told to be ready within 24 hours. 

    “The people did not want their names used because they were not authorized to discuss the preparations.” – Daily Mail 

    Fox News reported that protests could be seen in more than 50 cities on Saturday evening. 

    * * * 

    Update (12:50ET):  Several videos surfaced online of protesters (on Friday night) in Oakland stealing cars from dealerships. 

    In one instance, protesters torched exotic sports cars at a Mercedes dealership. 

    * * *

    Update (11:19 ET): Prepare for a night of hell, as per Fox News’ report that 50 cities could see protests on Saturday night. 

    * * *

    Minnesota Governor Tim Walz summed-up the current chaos erupting nationwide perfectly:

    “This is absolutely no longer about George Floyd or addressing inequities anymore. This is an organized attack designed to destabilize civil society.”

    Protests raged overnight in dozens of U.S. cities, including Minneapolis, Washington, D.C., New York City, Atlanta, Houston, and several large metro areas on the West Coast. 

    Protests or social unrest was seen in these major metros on Friday night: 

    • Houston & Fort Worth, TX
    • NYC
    • Chicago, IL
    • Atlanta, GA
    • Washington D.C.
    • Detroit, MI
    • Fort Wayne, IN
    • Kansas City, MO
    • Des Moines, IA
    • Vegas, NV
    • Charlotte, NC
    • San Jose, CA
    • Boston, MA
    • Memphis, TN
    • Columbus, OH
    • Denver, CO
    • Cincinnati, OH
    • Portland, ME
    • Louisville, KY

    Starting in Minneapolis, where unrest continued into the fourth night following the death of George Floyd, a man who was killed by Minneapolis Police on Monday, had Minnesota National Guard Adjutant General Jon Jensen and Governor Tim Walz announce the request for 1,000 more soldiers from the National Guard as widespread rioting and looting continued. 

    “This is the largest civilian deployment in Minnesota history that we have out there today, and quite candidly right now, we do not have the numbers,” Walz said Saturday morning.” We cannot arrest people when we are trying to hold ground because of the sheer size, the dynamics, and wanton violence.”

    Jensen expects by Saturday evening, up to 1,700 soldiers will be “ready to go.” On Friday night, assault rifle-wielding soldiers were spotted on the streets within the ranks of local police. 

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    Minneapolis protest May 29. h/t Unicorn Riot

    A fleet of armored Humvees lined the street “on Chicago Ave in between Lake St. and 31st as firefighters battle raging fires 8 blocks from where George Floyd was killed,” tweeted Unicorn Riot

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    Minneapolis protest May 29. h/t Unicorn Riot

    Protesters appeared to have torched a Wells Fargo bank. 

    Building structure(s) are still on fire on Saturday morning. 

    Chaos and destruction continue into the weekend.  

    Scenes last night from Interstate 35W, a major highway system in the U.S. that passes through downtown Minneapolis, where protesters broke into a moving UPS truck and stole packages.

    In response to Washington, D.C. protests on Friday evening, President Trump thanked the Secret Service on Saturday morning for protecting the White house.

    “Many Secret Service agents just waiting for action,” President Trump tweeted. 

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    Meanwhile, the Treasury Department in DC was breached by rioters, who spray-painted the building. According to CNN, some of the protesters were stopped by US Secret Service but eventually let go.

    Down in Atlanta, CNN’s headquarters were attacked by protesters on Friday evening. 

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    h/t Ryan Maue May 29

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    h/t Ryan Maue May 29 

    Several stunning images of the unrest in Atlanta last night.

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    h/t Twitter handle kieroncg May 29 

    An angry mob lit NYPD Police vans on fire last night:  

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    h/t Twitter May 29

    Rioting in Brooklyn overnight. 

    From Houston to Phoenix to Portland, police forces have reported widespread social unrest. 

    As things spiral out of control, two Federal Protective Service officers suffered gunshot wounds in Oakland, California, last night, leaving one of them dead. 

    Oakland was crazy in the overnight, one protester stole a skid loader tractor and drove it down the street. 

    Protesters clashed with police in Oakland. 

    Protesters looting a car dealership in Oakland. 

    Several years ago, US Northern Command “rehearsed non-lethal riot control tactics” at Davis-Monthan AFB in Arizona. Perhaps preparation for widespread social unrest across the country. The government has known this day was coming… 

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    US Northern Command training for riots in 2018 

    President Trump signed an executive order in late March that allows the Pentagon to mobilize up to a million troops to combat the coronavirus outbreak in the country. The order could now be directed at social unrest. It’s only a matter of time before more state governors activate National Guard troops like Minnesota did early this week. 

    We were the first to note Friday, the federal government flew a military drone above Minneapolis to spy on protesters.   

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    A perfect storm develops: 40 million unemployed, economy crashed, record polarization and wealth inequality at extremes, the country is quickly descending into chaos into the summer months. So what happens when the government stops unleashing helicopter money for people who recently lost their jobs?

  • Trump Blasts "Outdated Group Of G7 Countries" – Postpones Summit After Merkel Rebuff, Will Invite Russia Back In
    Trump Blasts "Outdated Group Of G7 Countries" – Postpones Summit After Merkel Rebuff, Will Invite Russia Back In

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 21:35

    Update: In a stunning change after President Trump initially pushed G7 leaders to go ahead with an in-person meeting at the White House and Camp David as early as June for the sake of “normalization”, promptly rebuffed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel – who indicated Saturday she would not attend while citing the still raging pandemic – the president told reporters aboard Air Force One later in the day that he’ll postpone till September.

    But the real shocker, and unprecedented, is what came after in his comments upon return from Cape Canaveral to Washington: he blasted the Group of Seven meeting format as a “very outdated group of countries” and expressed that he plans to invite four additional non-member nations, mostly notably Russia.

    “I’m postponing it because I don’t feel that as a G7 it properly represents what’s going on in the world,” Trump said. In addition to the usual seven of the US, Italy, Japan, Canada, France, Germany, and United Kingdom, Trump said he’ll include for the first time Australia, Russia, South Korea and India.

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    Via Reuters

    Needless to say, both America’s allies and national security state hawks are going to flip, given especially the sensitivity of the Ukraine issue. Recall that what was once the G8 became the G7 after in 2014 Russia was kicked out over the Crimea annexation amid the war in eastern Ukraine.

    It’s a hugely unexpected pivot at a moment of multiple domestic and global crises, but maybe some level of a “distraction” over this tumultuous weekend across multiple US cities is precisely the point.

    * * *

    After President Trump for the first time last week pushed for an in-person G7 summit, which is at this moment still officially on the schedule as a videoconference meeting in late June due to the pandemic (it was originally planned for Camp David), Germany says Chancellor Angela Merkel has rejected the change in plan, saying she won’t be in attendance.

    This after Trump extended concrete plans to hold the gathering  which includes heads of the US, Italy, Japan, Canada, France, Germany, United Kingdom, also European Union leaders — “primarily at the White House” but also possibly parts in Camp David in Maryland as well.

    “As of today, considering the overall pandemic situation, she cannot agree to her personal participation, to a journey to Washington,” Merkel’s spokesman said, which followed a Friday night report in Politico. “She will of course continue to monitor the development of the pandemic.”

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    G7 meeting in 2019, via AFP file image.

    “The federal chancellor thanks President Trump for his invitation to the G7 summit,” the spokesman added.

    It’s clear from the statement citing pandemic fears that the German leader thinks it too early to gather in person. Trump pushed it as a hopeful sign of “normalization”.

    The president tweeted on May 20, “It would be a great sign to all — normalization!” — explaining that a rescheduled in-person summit would be a sign of the retreat and defeat of the virus, and economic recovery.

    The White House viewed a normal summit gathering as a “show of strength” to the world as economies in the West slowly open back up, however, such a key G7 country as Germany giving a firm ‘no’ will likely put a crimp in the plans.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Other countries have issued vaguely positive responses but more likely are remaining on the fence, likely to take cues from first-movers like Germany. 

    British Prime Minister Boris Johnson “agreed on the importance of convening the G7 in person in the near future” according to a Friday White House statement, while Canada’s Trudeau said he’d entertain it as long as safety was prioritized, and France’s Macron said he was “willing to go to Camp David if the health conditions allow”.

  • America: One Screen, Two Movies, Three Times The Trouble
    America: One Screen, Two Movies, Three Times The Trouble

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 21:30

    Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

    Scott Adams has a perfect phrase to describe our political divide.

    “One screen, two movies.”

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    What he means is that two people see the same event and process it in completely opposite ways, depending on their perspective.

    That perspective is made up of a whole host of things – current state of mind, personal experience, personality traits, body chemistry, etc.

    Take that one step further and incorporate human survival traits like in-group/out-group bias and the potential for self-reinforcing feedback loops of anxiety to explode into unbridgeable divisions within society become very likely.

    None of what I just described is novel. It shouldn’t even need to be explained at this point. But, we’re living in such a state of heightened anxiety it is easy to lose sight of the basics.

    I’ve been writing this blog now for more than three years. I have to remind myself of things I wrote previously that I’ve forgotten about in the day-to-day grind chronicling the devolution of our society into madness.

    Because all of us, including me, are exhibiting signs of real madness when confronted with the monstrous events we perceive playing out on our movie screens.

    There is an information war occurring that is aimed at creating hair trigger reactions to events to advance particular political agendas. It doesn’t matter what the issue of the day is. Today it’s the burning down of Minneapolis over police brutality.

    The footage of George Floyd being murdered is enough to trigger most any decent person into a near-murderous rage.

    And, as Scott pointed out in his commentary on this, no one is arguing the murder of George Floyd was anything other than just that, murder. Whites, blacks, browns, men, womyn, cis, xe, he, vegan, capitalist.

    So, why is this a race issue? Why are our media and our political class cheering on the destruction of a U.S. city and fanning the flames higher, excusing the destruction to promote a false race war?

    Because that’s what they want to see and get a critical mass of people to also see it that way.

    We’re all outraged by underlying incident. There aren’t two movies here.

    Unfortunately, the way we express this outrage is based on where we are at the moment we view it.

    If we are in deep state of anxiety, where the left-brain has suppressed the right because survival instincts kick in, then we default to the easiest, quickest explanation. For those on the left, fed a toxic mix of identity politics and Communism, police brutality is the perfect metaphor for systemic racism and cultural division.

    Paralyze the police and undermine the fabric of the society. But it isn’t like the police haven’t been a growing problem in this country for decades.

    Since the Clinton Crime Bill of the 1990’s cops have been consistently militarized to the point of inhumanity.

    Police officers today look nothing like my dad as NYPD in the 1970’s when societal unrest there was as bad if not worse then what’s happening in Minneapolis today.

    And I remember watching the Rodney King riots in LA with him and he saying then the problem in policing is the men have no life experience, no skin yet in the game, i.e. family.

    His generation of police are gone. Even the ones that came behind him are leaving the scene (dad would have been 92 this year). My dad didn’t live to see the Clinton Crime Bill but he would have been against it.

    Because with the subsequent wars and the federal money their loyalty was politicized, the degradation of their relationship to their community eroded to where it is now. Do you seek out police interactions today or fear them?

    What movie is playing in your head? Because I know which one is playing in mine. Hence, you know, Gold Goats ‘n Guns.

    Both of these trends have accelerated as we grind through this Fourth Turning. Endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have police forces, already militarized, staffed with guys who have combat experience, that see the job through that lens. Screening for mental instability is faulty at best so mistakes are going to happen.

    Tyranny is guaranteed alongside the corruption and the need for all men to regain a lost sense of potency in a world sinking into depravity.

    And those jobs need to be filled especially as the wealth is drained from the lower and middle classes through ruinous taxation, regulation and endless money printing.

    But, we’re supposed to be divided along race lines because of a white cop choking out a black man? And this is an excuse to burn down a city and instigate riots all over the country?

    There isn’t any connection between these things and reality. Everyone is being played for a chump here.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    The sad truth is, as President Trump pointed out and Twitter censored, George Floyd is irrelevant now. This has taken on a life of its own. It’s about chaos and much larger issues than the incident which spawned it.

    What’s happening in Minnesota was a coordinated attack.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    What’s your reaction to this screen? What movie are you seeing here?

    My movie says this is the next stage of the operation to oust Trump from power. The Coronapocalypse movie is mostly over but it’s had its intended effect of dividing us even further.

    Now Antifa-style mask-wearing has been thoroughly normalized. Now the person in the CVS standing next to you can be a threat to your community.

    Too paranoid a movie for you?

    I’m sorry but image systems matter. That’s the whole point of putting movies on the screen in the first place.

    Jack Dorsey and Twitter are daring Trump to regulate or shut down the platform with their censoring his tweets. CNN and MSNBC know their sit-down ratings are abysmal. Their real ratings exist on social media.

    In that sense they are no more legitimate news than people with iPhones posting thoughts on Instagram and Twitter.

    The movie they are selling is Trump is to blame regardless of what happens, just like in Charlottesville. If he brings in the National Guard to mow down black people in the streets and get any number of Twitter Moments to further confuse what you’re watching.

    If Trump does nothing he loses Conservatives who believe in law and order, fairness and all of that. If he over-commits he’s got Kent State times ten on his hands.

    While my movie says this is definitely an operation designed to inflict maximal political damage on Trump the sub-text of my movie screams about what is truly wrong with America.

    That this is a power struggle for the next century by evil people manipulating desperate and cynical ones into acts of violence and hatred which is falsely directed by a script pre-written to keep us angry, fearful and divided.

    And until we all back away from the screens and see that script for what it is, this will escalate until a lot more than just Minneapolis is burning.

    *  *  *

    Join My Patreon if you want help seeing the scripts behind the movies. Install the Brave Browser if you want to starve Google from making bad movies.

  • US Army Deploys "Elite Trainers" To Help Colombia After Cocaine Production Triples
    US Army Deploys "Elite Trainers" To Help Colombia After Cocaine Production Triples

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 21:00

    It’s a shame that we’re all likely going to be social distancing this Christmas, otherwise certain investment banks sound like they could be setting up for one hell of a holiday party.

    In fact, a party that’s three times as better as its been in recent years. 

    That’s because the U.S. is deploying “an elite group of military trainers” to Colombia to help the country’s counter-narcotics offensive deal with raging cocaine production in the country. Production of cocaine has “more than tripled” within the last few years, according to Bloomberg

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    The U.S. has assisted Colombian forces for years, but this marks the first time the U.S. has sent members of its Security Force Assistance Brigade. The troops will be in Colombia to provide training and won’t take part in combat. The deployment is also an attempt to put pressure on Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. 

    In another move many thought was to put pressure on Maduro, President Trump had said back in April that he was adding a naval presence in the Caribbean to help fight the drug cartels. 

    Adam Isacson of the Washington Office on Latin America said: “The intended audience for this training deployment is probably in Caracas.”

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    Meanwhile, the increased amount of cocaine output coming out of Colombia has led the President to cut the country off from certain support, aid and loans. According to the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, potential cocaine production fell 1.4% last year, but only after reaching a record of 900 tons in 2017.  

    U.S. Southern Command said: “In Colombia, the team will work with host units in areas designated by the Colombian government as ‘priority areas’ where they will focus on logistics, services and intelligence capabilities.”

    The deployment is expected to last about four months and will be specific to drug producing regions.

  • Minneapolis Riots Are Reminder That Police Don't Protect You Or Your Property
    Minneapolis Riots Are Reminder That Police Don't Protect You Or Your Property

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 20:30

    Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

    Looting and arson have followed what began as peaceful protests in response to the apparent killing of George Floyd by Derek Chauvin, a now-former member of the Minneapolis Police Department.

    But whatever was the spark that set off the current round of rioting in the Twin Cities area, it is clear that most property owners and residents will have to fend for themselves where riots have taken place. In other words, any unfortunate shopkeeper or resident who finds himself in the path of the rioters ought to just assume that police won’t be around to provide any protection from the mob.

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    For example, The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports:

    The police station on E. Lake Street has been the epicenter of protests this week… Nearby, Minnehaha Lake Wine & Spirits, the target of looters the night before, also was set ablaze. …On Wednesday night, a man was fatally shot and crowds looted and burned buildings on E. Lake Street late into the night.

    Earlier in the day, in St. Paul, looters broke windows, stormed through battered-down doors and snatched clothes, phones, shoes and other merchandise from shops along University Avenue near the intersection of Pascal Street. Officers formed a barricade in front of Target. But police were absent a block away at T.J. Maxx, where looters smashed down the door and fled with heaps of clothing piled on shopping carts.

    Many business owners who now face destruction at the hands of rioters can scarcely afford it:

    Many of the shops destroyed along this stretch of E. Lake Street are immigrant-owned businesses — many of which were already struggling during the coronavirus pandemic. “Now it’s worse,” said Roberto Hernandez, who stood guard outside his nutrition store for five hours to fend off looters. (emphasis added)

    Another man, who was working to open a sports bar in the area later this year, saw his bar destroyed. Needless to say, with only a few exceptions, the police weren’t around to “protect and serve.”

    Admittedly, in cases like this week’s riots, the police are heavily outnumbered and unable to provide any sort of general protection from rioters. Even if individual officers were engaging in heroic behavior to turn rioters away from potential victims, there would be little they could do to confront all offenders.

    But heroics or not, the outcome for victims is the same: they must rely on self defense, formal private security, or private armed volunteers likely to be labeled as “vigilantes.”

    A failure to protect taxpaying citizens from violence and crime in a wide variety of situations is standard operating procedure for police departments which are under no legal obligation to protect anyone, and where “officer safety” is the number-one priority. The lesson to be learned here is that the alleged “social contract” between citizens and the state is a one-way street: you pay taxes for police “services,” and the police may or may not give you anything in return.

    Police Are Not Obligated to Provide Protection

    It is now a well-established legal principle in the United States that police officers and police departments are not legally responsible to refusing to intervene in cases where private citizens are in imminent danger or even in the process of being victimized.

    The US Supreme Court has made it clear that law enforcement agencies are not required to provide protection to the citizens who are forced to pay for police services, year in and year out.

    In cases of civil unrest, of course, be prepared to receive approximately nothing from police in terms of protecting property, or life and limb.

    During the 2014 riots that followed the police killing of Michael Brown, for example, shopkeepers were forced to hire private security, and many had to rely on armed volunteers for protection from looters. “There’s no police,” one Ferguson shopkeeper told FoxNews at the time. “We trusted the police to keep it peaceful; they didn’t do their job.”

    More famously, shopkeepers during the Los Angeles riots defended their shops with private firearms:

    “Where are the police? Where are the police?” [shopkeeper Chang] Lee whispered over and over from his rooftop perch. Lee would not see law enforcement for three days — only fellow Korean-Americans, who would be photographed by news agencies looking like armed militia…

    Officer Safety Comes First

    During the Columbine school shootings in Colorado in 1999, the Sheriff department’s “first responders” formed a perimeter outside the building and refused to enter because the situation was deemed too risky for law enforcement. Meanwhile, children were being slaughtered inside.

    Nearly twenty years later, law enforcement officers at the Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland Florida cowered behind vehicles while students were murdered inside the school.

    But even in cases where police are willing to enter the premises and attempt to subdue violent criminals, the victim may find law enforcement officers to be of little help. According to 2008 data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, police response times to violent-crime-related calls exceeded 11 minutes one-third of the time. Things were no better twelve years earlier in 1996, when a similar survey was conducted. Now, twelve years after 2008, there’s no reason to assume anything has improved.

    11 minutes is a long time to wait when dealing with a violent criminal.

    Moreover, when police do arrive, don’t expect a competent response. The cases of Atatania Jefferson and Botham Jean provide some helpful reminders.

    According to multiple accounts of the Jefferson case, a neighbor of Jefferson called police to “check up” on Jefferson whom the neighbor feared Jefferson might be in danger. Jefferson was soon shot dead in her own living room by law enforcement. The shooter — a now-former cop named Aaron Dean — entered Jefferson’s private property unannounced in the middle of the night. He peered into Jefferson’s windows, and within seconds, the officer had shot Jefferson dead. Jefferson had been playing video games with her nephew.

    A year earlier, former police officer Amber Guyger was sentenced to ten years in prison for unlawfully shooting Botham Jean in his own apartment. At the time, Guyger was a police officer returning home from work. She illegally entered the wrong apartment and promptly shot Jean — the unit’s lawful resident — dead.

    And, of course, there is the case of Justine Damond, who called the Minneapolis Police Department to report a possible sexual assault near her home. When police arrived, they shot Damond dead, for no known reason other than hysterical fear on the part of police.

    Those who proactively attempt to defend themselves fare little better. In 2018, Colorado resident Richard Black used a firearm to defend his grandson against an intruder. Unfortunately, someone called the police. When officers arrived, they opened fire on Black, even though was only a threat to the criminal intruder. 

    The lesson to be learned from all this is that it is foolhardy, to say the least, to rely on law enforcement officers to intervene to provide “safety” when troubles arise.

    After all, experience has shown police are thoroughly unmotivated when it comes to preventing, or even investigating true violent crime. Confronting violent criminals is dangerous and costly. Thus, police departments are geared much more around encouraging harassment of petty offenders (such as George Floyd) and going after small-time drug offenders while confiscating property under asset forfeiture laws.

    This provides revenue to pad agency budgets while prioritizing the targeting of easy marks, rather than violent offenders. In the United States, more than half of serious crimes are never solved.

    And yet, though it all, we hear again and again the myth that law enforcement agencies will provide protection, retrieve stolen property, and keep the peace. Many people in Minneapolis are now experiencing the reality.

  • Used Car Prices Offer Brief Respite After Plunging Below Forecasts Last Month
    Used Car Prices Offer Brief Respite After Plunging Below Forecasts Last Month

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 20:00

    Over the last few months we detailed how used car prices were set to cripple what little interest in new cars remains, how dealers are scrambling to desperately offer incentives and how ships full of vehicles are being turned away at port cities due to a lack of space and inventory glut.

    Today, it’s looking like the market is seeing a much needed respite, even though it may be temporary.

    Used car prices are bouncing back from last month’s low and approaching forecasts that were made prior to the pandemic. In fact, J.D. Power’s weekly wholesale auction price index is now only down 1.9% from where it was expected prior to the virus.

    Car auctions around the country were shutting down last month and many in the industry had warned about the potential for prices to collapse as a result, according to Bloomberg. We had pointed out worries about used car pricing weeks ago, noting the pressure that a drop in pricing could put on manufacturers and rental car companies.

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    In fact, since then, Hertz filed for bankruptcy, while desperately trying to unload some of its rental car inventory.

    As we reported previously, earlier last week Hertz dumped a bunch of Corvette Z06s on to the used car market in what experts said was a great deal for buyers. And more used car deals are starting to roll out on Hertz’s website after the company’s bankruptcy filing announcement. As caught by Jalopnik, here’s a 2020 BMW 740i for $52,949 and only 8,595 miles on the odometer, more than $10K below Blue Book value for cars in the same area.

    We also pointed out how GM, Ford and others were set to lose billions as a result of a crash in used car prices. Mid-month April data from Manheim showed that the used vehicle value index had fallen 11.8% for the first 15 days of April, a decline on a record setting pace, according to Bloomberg

     

    Auto companies had only been expecting a 5% to 7% drop in used car prices. We also reported weeks ago that GM was only bracing for a 4% drop in prices and that a further drop could put extreme financial stress on the company.

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    For example, Joel Levington, a credit analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence said last month: “GM assumed a 4% decline in residual values this year. If the 10% drop Manheim has seen recently persists, depreciation expense could counter the $1.9 billion that GM Financial earned in pretax profit last year.”

    Whether or not the respite in prices is temporary and permanent likely depends on how long the country can stay open again. With more legs in showrooms and business as usual at used car auctions, the market may continue to see a bid (albeit a stressed one, due to the financial shape of the U.S. consumer). 

    However, if the virus begins to spread again and the country is again placed on lockdown, automakers and used car sellers could be heading for Round 2 of the very same hellish scenario they first experienced in April. 

  • A Closer Look At Taxpayer-Funded COVID Contractors Reveals Inexperience, Fraud, & A Weapons Dealer
    A Closer Look At Taxpayer-Funded COVID Contractors Reveals Inexperience, Fraud, & A Weapons Dealer

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 19:30

    Via ProPublica.org,

    The Trump administration has promised at least $1.8 billion to 345 first-time contractors, often without competitive bidding or thorough vetting of their backgrounds.

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    A firm set up by a former telemarketer who once settled federal fraud charges for $2.7 million. A vodka distributor accused in a pending lawsuit of overstating its projected sales. An aspiring weapons dealer operating out of a single-family home.

    These three privately held companies are part of the new medical supply chain, offered a total of almost $74 million by the federal government to find and rapidly deliver vital protective equipment and COVID-19 testing supplies across the U.S. While there’s no evidence that they obtained their deals through political connections, none of the three had to bid against competing firms. One has already lost its contract for lack of performance; it’s unclear if the other two can fulfill their orders on time, or at all.

    They are among about 345 first-time federal contractors promised at least $1.8 billion in deals by the Trump administration since March, representing about 13% of total government spending on pandemic-related contracts of $13.8 billion, a ProPublica analysis of federal procurement data found. Like the three companies, many of the new contractors have no experience acquiring medical products.

    Some of them, including the ex-telemarketer’s company and another firm established by a former White House aide, formed only days or weeks before landing multimillion-dollar government contracts. The U.S. government’s reliance on them, with what appears to be scant vetting of their credentials, represents a major gamble whose outcome could affect how many Americans are infected by the coronavirus and how quickly the U.S. economy recovers.

    “We’re putting schedule above quality, to some extent, in this time of great need,” said Trevor Brown, a professor of public management at Ohio State University. “There’s just so much pressure to get PPE into the field, I’m not surprised there’s a relaxing of focus on the quality of the product.”

    Track Federal Government Coronavirus Contracts

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    Coronavirus Contracts: Tracking Federal Purchases to Fight the Pandemic

    The federal government is spending billions of dollars to combat the coronavirus, and spending shows no sign of slowing down. Explore who the U.S. is buying from, what it’s buying and how much it’s paying.

    The U.S. health care system and federal agencies were woefully unprepared for the pandemic. As novel coronavirus infections surged in March, hospitals quickly ran short of N95 respirator masks, gowns and other protective gear for front-line workers. The National Strategic Stockpile became depleted within weeks, and every level of government has struggled to restock.

    Scrambling to cope with an unprecedented public health crisis, several federal agencies limited their vetting process to checking that companies and their owners were not officially barred from receiving government contracts. The agencies also have bypassed competitive bidding on many purchases, as is allowed under federal law when there is an “unusual and compelling urgency.”

    This strategy appears to have boosted less established firms; ProPublica’s analysis found that 51% of the deals with first-time contractors were without competition, compared with 32% of pandemic-related contracts overall. For example, at the White House’s directive, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has awarded more than $60 million in contracts for test swabs and sample containers to be distributed to states and Native American tribes — all without competitive bidding.

    The large-scale reliance on no-bid contracts is worrisome because it increases the risks of price gouging, fraud and faulty products, said Steve Kelman, a former administrator of the Office of Federal Procurement Policy.

    “Even if you’re allowed to do that, even if you need to act quickly, I would not just go to one company and say, ‘Sell it to us,’” said Kelman, now a Harvard University professor of public administration.

    Agencies often award the deals without proof that the desired inventory exists. Payment is contingent on performance; if a vendor doesn’t deliver, the government walks away. Under the terms of their deals, companies may even be required to pay the difference if they fail to provide supplies and the government has to use a more expensive contractor. With the coronavirus continuing to sicken tens of thousands of people daily and keeping tens of millions out of work, the most important costs may be in time lost, increased cases and economic stagnation, if delays in getting supplies where they’re needed lead to more infections and prolonged quarantines.

    On April 20, the Department of Veterans Affairs granted a $14.5 million contract for N95 masks to Bayhill Defense, which formed in 2017 and lists a house in Pittsburgh in government filings. (The firm also has warehouse space in a Pittsburgh suburb, according to its website.) The company, which has a federal firearm license, says on its website that it sells “defense industry products,” including ammunition, assault rifles, grenade launchers, rocket systems, mortars and anti-aircraft guns, “to be provided to the United States and other friendly nations.” It has never received a contract from the Department of Defense, according to federal procurement data.

    Bayhill Defense agreed to provide the masks in 10 days, but it never delivered any, and the VA canceled the contract this month without paying the company. Reached by phone, Andrew Taglianetti, the company’s president, declined to explain how Bayhill Defense secured the deal or why it failed.

    “It’s all good,” Taglianetti said.

    During crisis and war, the federal government has often turned to new contractors selling specialty products or promising to deliver quickly. While these arrangements can be beneficial for agencies and vendors, they also have a troubled history.

    After the U.S. invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003, fighting lasted years longer than the Pentagon had planned. It needed food and other basic supplies faster than its existing contractors could provide, said Charles Tiefer, a law professor at the University of Baltimore and expert on government purchasing. Military officials hired businesses in the region, particularly Kuwaiti trading companies. The deals were rife with corruption and several ended in criminal prosecutions, Tiefer said.

    Similarly, when Hurricane Katrina devastated parts of the Gulf Coast, fraud and waste in procurement plagued the federal response, Tiefer said. “Government contracting is at its worst when it doesn’t have time and it has to take on an emergency.”

    The owner of one first-time contractor examined by ProPublica, Fillakit LLC, has repeatedly faced fraud allegations. Beginning on May 7, FEMA gave three deals totaling $10.5 million to Fillakit, which had incorporated in Florida just seven days before, according to government records. Under the terms of the contracts, Fillakit is supposed to supply FEMA with swabs as well as containers for uncontaminated samples.

    Fillakit’s incorporation documents list an address in a business park north of Houston, and a St. Petersburg, Florida, lawyer as its agent. They provide no information about the company’s ownership.

    However, the cellphone number for Fillakit in the federal contract data belongs to Paul Wexler, a businessman repeatedly accused of fraudulent practices over the past two decades. Wexler’s background is primarily in law and real estate, not medical supplies.

    In 2012, the Federal Trade Commission accused Wexler and his telemarketing firm of illegal robocalling, making unauthorized charges to consumers’ bank accounts and falsely claiming to be a nonprofit organization. Wexler’s firm allegedly misrepresented itself as a credit counseling service for several years, charging customers for work it did not do, according to court records.

    Wexler denied the charges but settled the case a year later. The settlement banned him from offering debt relief services — but not from being a federal contractor — and imposed a $2.7 million judgment.

    Wexler confirmed to ProPublica that he owns Fillakit, but he declined to answer other questions about the company or his background. “I’d love to help you, I can’t right now,” he said. “We’re doing so much right now, the volume that we’re doing, I’ve got hundreds of people and I just don’t have time to do this.”

    Wexler said Fillakit is preparing to send the swabs and containers to FEMA. “We’re just pumping them out as fast as we can for them, so I’ve really got to stay on point here,” he said.

    In a written statement last Friday, FEMA said it has paid Fillakit $381,000 for one delivery of swabs and containers. The company has less than six weeks to provide the remaining $10.1 million worth of test supplies.

    Before telemarketing, Wexler was a lawyer and real estate developer building custom homes in Colorado. He declared bankruptcy in 2003. Afterward, court records show, several banks and business associates accused him of financial misconduct.

    Geoffrey Phillips loaned Wexler’s development company $75,000 in 2002. It used a home as collateral for the loan, but the property actually belonged to Wexler and his wife, according to court records. Wexler’s company didn’t repay the debt, and Wexler listed the home as his personal residence in his bankruptcy filing, protecting it from seizure. Phillips sued, accusing Wexler of fraud. Phillips won the lawsuit and the bankruptcy judge removed the home from protection.

    In an interview, Phillips said he was baffled that FEMA would approve Wexler’s deal. “Don’t you think the government would check him thoroughly before they gave him a contract?” Phillips said. “Unbelievable.”

    Under federal procurement law, only the history of Wexler’s company is relevant, not his personal track record, said Brown, the Ohio State professor. “The contract officer can’t go back and use the information on his prior behavior for another company as evidence in decision-making.”

    FEMA said that it did not evaluate Wexler’s past business practices, only those of his fledgling company. “FEMA reviewed Fillakit’s quote and their contractor assurance statement. Nothing was found that would render this company ineligible for award,” the agency said.

    In addition to newly formed companies, well-established firms in other industries have moved into medical supplies and secured their first government contracts without competition.

    The VA gave a $14.7 million contract for masks to Aunt Flow, an Ohio-based seller of tampons and other menstrual products for dispensers in women’s bathrooms. When orders for its products slowed during the pandemic, the company converted its own manufacturing facilities in China to produce surgical masks, and it began selling them to existing clients as well as federal agencies. Then, it tried to capitalize on its manufacturing relationships in China to bring in a shipment of the heavier-duty N95 masks for veterans hospitals.

    But as the supplies were being loaded on a plane, the Chinese government ordered all of the manufacturer’s masks diverted for domestic use, said Claire Coder, the company’s CEO. She said she immediately called the VA to inform it that the company couldn’t fulfill the deal, and the money was never paid.

    Medea Inc., a California-based liquor company, also got a federal contract to supply surgical masks. This month, FEMA awarded a $48.8 million deal to Medea, which is a boutique vodka brand best known for decorating its bottles with colorful LED displays. Its marketing videos feature former NBA star Shaquille O’Neal.

    A New Jersey finance firm is suing Medea in federal court, alleging it committed fraud during sales negotiations by falsely claiming Costco and Kroger had agreed to stock the brand nationwide. Medea has denied the allegations in court filings. A pending lawsuit is not normally grounds to deny a federal contract.

    Medea has high-level political ties in California. Terry McGann, a member of Medea’s board and its former chief executive, is a former registered state lobbyist. McGann’s wife, Marie Moretti, led a state agency that coordinated volunteer efforts across California before working as Medea’s first chief financial officer. She’s now its chief marketing officer. McGann said political influence did not help the liquor distributor secure the contract, and he referred all other questions to the company. Medea executives, including Moretti, did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

    FEMA did not answer a question about whether Medea has begun delivering masks, which are due by June 1. Asked about the company’s qualifications, a FEMA spokesperson wrote that the liquor company was chosen “based on meeting the evaluation factors for award specified in the solicitation.”

  • Less Than Half Of Americans Plan To Get COVID Vaccine: AP Poll
    Less Than Half Of Americans Plan To Get COVID Vaccine: AP Poll

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 19:00

    A week ago we took note of the results of a Reuters/Ipsos survey which found 25% of Americans have no interest in taking a coronavirus vaccine. Those prior findings also confirmed a trend that the majority of Americans said they would need to review additional research on the vaccine to determine if it was safe, suggesting the majority would stay home as opposed to health officials’ hoped-for expectation the majority would inundate local clinics to gain ‘immunity’ via a new inoculation. 

    This as President Trump’s much touted but perhaps dubious Operation Warp Speed program has the ambitious aim of producing 300 million doses of a vaccine by January, a goal that we and others have pointed out is widely unrealistic. Naturally most Americans might have intense doubts and anxiety over injecting a substance into their bodies which was “rushed” or fast-tracked to market, obviously without the normative lengthy research and trial process. 

    A new Associated Press poll out this week confirms the public skepticism. It found that only 49% of 1,056 Americans surveyed would intend to get the vaccine.

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    Image source: AP

    On the other side 20% said they would noted get inoculated at all and another 31% are unsure. The survey was conduced in the middle of this month.

    The AP described the number of those apparently planning to reject a vaccine is “surprisingly low considering the effort going into the global race” for the key preventative measure. 

    “The unexpected looms large and that’s why I think for any of these vaccines, we’re going to need a large safety database to provide the reassurance,” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told AP.

    Americans interviewed in association with the new poll precisely echoed concerns over safety given the speed at which it would be rolled out:

    Among Americans who say they wouldn’t get vaccinated, 7 in 10 worry about safety.

    “I am not an anti-vaxxer,” said Melanie Dries, 56, of Colorado Springs, Colorado. But, “to get a COVID-19 vaccine within a year or two … causes me to fear that it won’t be widely tested as to side effects.”

    Interestingly, the results are parallel to the numbers of people who said they planned to get a seasonal flu shot (52% according to a 2019 National Foundation for Infectious Diseases poll).

    * * *

    Here’s a quick breakdown of the latest AP poll numbers

    • 67% percent of those over 60 plan to get the vaccine 
    • 40% of those under 60 would
    • 56% of whites say they’ll get the vaccine 
    • Only 25% of blacks and 37% of Hispanics say they’ll get it 
    • 62% of Democrats say they will get it 
    • Only 43% of Republicans say they plan to

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  • Chinese Cheating Rampant In US College Applications, And In Classrooms
    Chinese Cheating Rampant In US College Applications, And In Classrooms

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 18:30

    Authored by Eduardo Neret via Campus Reform,

    Fake transcripts and essays, falsified letters of recommendation and test scores, paid consultants, and fake passports and IDs. These are just some of the many methods that Chinese nationals have reportedly used to gain acceptance into U.S. colleges and universities.

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    What once might have been a few isolated incidents has now turned into a vast, international money-making industry.

    Hiu Kit David Chong, an admissions official at the University of Southern California (USC), pleaded guilty in April to wire fraud in and helping Chinese students defraud their college applications. According to the Department of Justice, Chong admitted to making $40,000 from clients over the years by providing “false college transcripts with inflated grades,” “fraudulent personal statements,” and “phony letters of recommendation” for the applications of his Chinese clients. 

    He also offered to provide surrogate test takers for the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) exam for international students.

    Chong was not the only person offering such services. In fact, according to a 2012 report by Time Magazine, a “huge industry of education agents” has emerged to appeal to the increasing number of Chinese nationals who want to study abroad at U.S. universities.

    Zinch China, a consultancy firm, found that 80 percent of Chinese students use agents to apply to U.S. colleges, with even more engaging in cheating. The company approximated that 90 percent of recommendation letters and 70 percent of college essays submitted by Chinese students are fraudulent. Additionally, 50 percent of previous grade transcripts are also fake. Ten percent lied about academic or extracurricular achievements, and 30 percent lied about financial aid information.

    Surveys indicate Chinese families see a U.S. education as a luxury that can provide future financial benefits, which drives the “whatever it takes” culture surrounding the application process and the fraud committed to achieve it. Zinch China also noted the competition among college consultants and the pressure from parents also contributed to cheating.

    “Cheating is pervasive in China, driven by hyper-competitive parents and aggressive agents,” Tom Melcher, the chairman of Zinch China said.

    While Chinese students have existed in the U.S. for decades, there has been increased growth over the last ten years. According to the Power of International Education, the number of Chinese foreign students in the U.S. as of 2019 was 369,548, which was more than the next three nations, India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia, combined. Chinese students represent approximately one-third of all international students, and their presence has grown by 56.68 percent since the 2012-2013 academic year.

    Peggy Blumenthal, senior counselor to the president of the Institute of International Education, says colleges began to more heavily recruit Chinese international students after the Great Recession when college enrollment was on the decline. Agents can cost anywhere from thousands of dollars, or even up to $40,000 according to the Beijing Overseas Study Service Association. Foreign Policy even discovered a family that paid $90,000 to an agent.

    In one example from 2015, CNN reported on a Chinese student named Jessica Zhang from Jiangsu Province. Zhang’s family paid $4,500 to three different consultants, who filled out her application and wrote her essay and recommendation letter. Zhang even had her visa arranged by the consultants and said she hired them because the process would’ve been “too much hassle” on her own.

    The international college consultant business is only worsened by the commissions that agents receive from U.S. colleges and universities for enrolling students. While federal laws prevent higher education institutions from paying to recruit domestic students, there is no law to prevent them from paying commissions to recruit international students.

    Some companies even help students cheat on the SAT. Because of security issues with the College Board over the last few years, which owns the SAT, some overseas companies have obtained the answer keys to the test.

    According to Reuters, since 2014, the College Board has delayed the release of scores from Asia six times and canceled exams two separate times—all because exam material had been made available. Surprisingly, the College Board later restricted testing and increased security in other Asian countries like South Korea, where some test leaks occurred, but took no such action in China.

    One such student who received an answer key from his Shanghai-based tutoring company bragged about getting a perfect score on one section of the SAT, since he knew the answers to approximately half of the questions in advance.

    “The reality is for international students, particularly in Asia, there’s a worry about whether the application is authentic, whether the essay is authentic, whether the person who shows up at your door is the same person who applied,” Joyce E. Smith, chief executive of the National Association for College Admission Counseling told Reuters.

    Unfortunately for U.S. colleges and universities, which have struggled to monitor and identify the fraud, reports seem to suggest that cheating only continues once many of these students are on campus or in the U.S.

    Schools like the University of Arizona, Ohio State University, and the University of Iowa have experienced cheating scandals involving Chinese students. An analysis by the Wall Street Journal found that records of cheating for international students at more than a “dozen large” U.S. public universities were five times greater than that of American students. At some universities, the reported cases of cheating among international students were eight times higher than domestic students.

    In one egregious example, the University of Iowa estimated in 2016 that dozens of their Chinese students enrolled in a service that Reuters reported would complete a lot of the work needed to obtain a university degree, including completing assignments and taking exams.

    According to three Chinese suspects who spoke to the outlet, the companies that helped the students cheat were Chinese-run.

    Reuters also uncovered similar Chinese cheating services offered to students at Penn State University, the University of Alabama, and the University of Washington. The companies also offered a money-back guarantee to students who did not get As in their classes.

    The “Varsity Blues” college admissions scandal in 2019 even involved cases of cheating and visa fraud. The federal government arrested Liu Cai, a Chinese student who attended UCLA, and four other California residents of Chinese descent for using fake passports to impersonate Chinese nationals to take the TOEFL exam, which is required to obtain a student visa.

    Some professors have tried to address the cases of academic dishonesty and lack of effort in the classroom, but have faced challenges in doing so.

    At UC-Santa Barbara, art professor Kip Fulbeck, who himself is of Chinese descent, faced backlash in 2018 after writing a set of class expectations in Chinese for the Chinese international students. According to the L.A. Times, Fulbeck became frustrated with students sleeping or being distracted by their phones in class, as well as those who left the class and did not come back. Fulbeck began to realize that a significant number of students engaging in such behavior were Chinese international students.

    Fulbeck later met with UC Santa Barbara’s Vice-Chancellor and some aggrieved students, but ultimately blamed the school for failing to deal with the increasing number of Chinese students and educating them on American classroom and education standards. He was also not the only professor aware of the rampant cheating among Chinese students.

    Paul Spickard, a history professor at UC-Santa Barbara and member of the faculty admissions committee, told the L.A. Times that at a meeting, faculty were told that Chinese students account for one-third of all plagiarism cases on campus, despite only comprising 6 percent of the entire student population. Spickard caught one Chinese student’s plagiarism after the student used old British English colloquialisms and citations that were over 50 years old.

    Richard Ross, another art professor at the university, told the L.A. Times that he even resigned over the growing cheating problem.

    “My role turned from educator to enforcer, and I didn’t want to do it anymore,” Ross said.

  • Live Nuclear Testing Could Resume In 'Months' At Nevada Site If Approved
    Live Nuclear Testing Could Resume In 'Months' At Nevada Site If Approved

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 18:00

    Late last week the Trump administration raised eyebrows among the American public and around the world when it was revealed it is actually considering conducting a nuclear test for the first time in 28 years, ultimately as a ‘message’ to Russia and China. It was discussed two weeks ago (May 15) at a “deputies meeting” of senior national security officials at the White House.

    Though apparently shelved for the time being a senior official told The Washington Post the idea of a US test is “very much an ongoing conversation.” But assuming the administration is actually ready to pull the trigger on such a test, how long would it take to get to the point of conducting the nuclear blast from the time the order is given? 

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    Entrance to the Nevada National Security Site where it’s believed future nuclear tests would be conducted. 

    A Pentagon official told Defense Daily this week that it would take only a matter of months to ready a nuclear-explosive test, even though the last one was all the way back in 1992, upon the end of the Cold War. Though the official noted such a rapid rollout would include “minimal diagnostics”. 

    Likely any potential future US nuclear test would take place at highly secure national testing grounds in Nevada

    Previous heads of the agency’s semiautonomous National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) have talked “about a very quick test with limited diagnostics, though certainly diagnostics, within months,” said Drew Walter, who is performing the duties of deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear matters. “A fuller test, fully diagnostic, and lots of data, all the bells and whistles, so to speak, might be measured in years. But ultimately, if the President directed because of a technical issue or a geopolitical issue, a system to go test, I think it would happen relatively rapidly.”

    Walter also said that he believes the NNSA has a borehole at the Nevada National Security Site that would be suitable for such a rapid test.

    In terms of any hot geopolitical issues which might provide impetus for “rapid” pursuit of a new test, recall Washington has of late charged both Russia and China with ‘illegally’ conducting low-yield nuclear tests, which both countries have denied.

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    In Beijing’s case it’s believed China’s military is able to conceal such provocative tests at an elaborate underground testing facility, though Chinese officials have vehemently denied this.

    Currently the Nevada National Security Site is undergoing a major upgrade to its underground complex where it’s believed future American nuke tests would be conducted. 

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    File image via Brookings.edu

    Meanwhile, it remains that one of the biggest geo-strategic obstacles to the US conducting a test is that analysts believe it would free up Russia and China to conduct their own tests, given if Washington abandoned its strictly observed nuclear test moratorium, others would have reason and justification to follow suit in abandoning prohibitions and international obligations. 

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  • Why The Assumption That High Unemployment Benefit Will Keep Workers From Returning To The Labor Market Is Deeply Flawed
    Why The Assumption That High Unemployment Benefit Will Keep Workers From Returning To The Labor Market Is Deeply Flawed

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 17:30

    Submitted by Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research

    “Contacts cited challenges in bringing employees back to work, including… generous unemployment insurance benefits.” That’s the topic getting the most attention from the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book out Wednesday. There’s more to the story, however:

    • As we noted yesterday in our review of the report, the extra $600/week unemployment insurance stimulus ends on July 31st, so that should help employers persuade workers to get back on payroll.

    • Business owners who received a PPP loan must eventually offer to rehire those they laid off. If a worker rejects the offer, the employer must often report the employee to the state unemployment office thus making the worker ineligible to keep receiving unemployment insurance benefits.

    • The PPP loan only covers up to eight weeks of wages, rent and other expenses. Given that business shutdowns started in mid-March, the window for many businesses to ask workers if they want their job back is narrowing.

    In the end, however, the most important driver of whether furloughed workers quickly return to their jobs may come down to competition in the labor force. Let’s not forget that US unemployment is +/- 20% right now, and not everyone is collecting enhanced UI. Far from it, in fact. Employers can reasonably expect to have many job applicants in the coming months.

    That leverage only works if there are people searching for work right now, so we looked at Google search volumes for a variety of COVID Crisis-affected service sector jobs to see if that was the case:

    #1: A comparison of Google searches for “retail job”, “restaurant job”, “hotel job” and “bar job” over the last year.

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    Our take:

    • Searches collapsed in mid-March as businesses in the retail and leisure and hospitality sectors closed. Interest has picked up to about half of normal levels over the last month as more US states reopen their economies.

    • The top three states searching for each query: “retail job”: Mississippi, Arkansas, Kansas. “Restaurant job”: New Hampshire, Utah, Rhode Island. “Bar job”: Wisconsin, Missouri, Pennsylvania. “Hotel job”: Hawaii, Iowa, Oklahoma.

    • Most of those states have started reopening their economies, some even already allowing dine-in or outdoor dining at restaurants over the course of May. The two exceptions: Pennsylvania will allow outdoor dining statewide soon on June 5th, while restaurants in Hawaii can reopen on June 1st.

    Bottom line: demand for service sector jobs is increasing right now, so currently furloughed/laid off workers face potential competition from others who would take a job today. If called to return to work, they will have to consider the very real possibility that if they decline or try to defer their job will not be there later. Also consider that tens of thousands of retail/leisure/hospitality workers are unemployed and may not have unemployment insurance; this will only increase demand for service sector jobs in the months to come.

    #2: A comparison of Google searches for “Walmart job”, “Amazon job” and “Essential job” over the last year.

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    Our take:

    • Searches for “Walmart/Amazon/essential job” all spiked in mid-March when businesses closed, highlighting the brief period in which those were the only kinds of jobs available to apply for.
    • Interest has since dissipated as states allow establishments to reopen and the labor market resets to greater normalcy.

    Bottom line: Amazon and Walmart could see more interest again as the extra unemployment insurance money gets phased out next month since many of those positions are full time and offer benefits. Many small businesses will likely cut people’s hours to part-time as already shown in the latest Beige Book: “some employers noted that while they didn’t lay off staff, they did reduce the number of hours they worked.”

    By contrast, Amazon just announced that the company plans to offer permanent jobs to as many as 70% of those it hired temporarily to meet demand during the COVID-19 Crisis. This full-time work includes health insurance and retirement plans.

    In sum, the assumption that high unemployment payments will keep workers from returning to the labor market is deeply flawed; there is and will be too much competition for jobs to make this a lasting issue. The Beige Book shows it is happening to some degree, but employers – especially those who took federal assistance – can only hold off on offering people their jobs back for so long. Even though some workers may refuse employment, there are clearly many Americans actively seeking jobs in retail and leisure and hospitality again as they become available in reopened states.

    Sources:

    Fed Beige Book: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20200527.pdf

    Amazon announcement: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-amazon-com-workers-idUSKBN2341FD

  • "Far-Left Or Anarchists" – Intelligence Reports ID Rioting Protesters; Mostly Locals Arrested
    "Far-Left Or Anarchists" – Intelligence Reports ID Rioting Protesters; Mostly Locals Arrested

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 17:14

    Update (1705ET): Despite claims by Democratic officials from Minneapolis that “white supremacists” or “foreign actors” are responsible for the violent riots seen across the nation, USAToday reports that Adam Leggat, a former British Army counterterrorism officer who now works as a security consultant specializing in crowd management for the Densus Group, said intelligence reports from his colleagues indicate most of the hard-core protesters in Minneapolis are far-left or anarchists, and that far-right groups have not yet made a significant appearance.

    “The real hard-core guys, this is their job: They’re involved in this struggle, they need protests on the street to give them cover to move in.”

    Additionally, Leggat said looting is typically done by locals – usually people with no criminal record who just get caught up in the moment. And despite claims otherwise by officials, records show most arrested are locals…

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    Of the 45 people arrested for rioting, unlawful assembly, stolen property, burglary or robbery on May 29 and May 30 so far, 38 had Minnesota addresses, according to publicly available jail records reviewed by FOX 9. Only six had out-of-state address, and one person didn’t have address information listed.

    Don’t believe us? A searchable jail roster is available online.

    So why would officials lie? (Gov. Tim Walz said Saturday morning that as many as 80 percent of the people were outsiders.)

    Because the narrative breaks wide open if this is just locals losing their shit… and in fact many Minneapolis residents appear to be growing weary of the violence and destruction, while still supporting peaceful protests. Clearing rubble from a burned-out Walgreens on Saturday, Daniel Braun, 34, said he was sad to see the damage to his neighborhood.

    “There’s civil rights and then there’s burning things down,” said Braun, an attorney.

    “During the day, everything is peaceful. It’s only at night when things happen. Once night falls, please, go home. When it’s dark out and you’re there, you’re not making anything better.”

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    Update (1440ET): After blaming “outsiders” for instigating the riots that have left swaths of Minneapolis in ruins, the city’s mayor, Jacob Frey, is now also blaming “foreign actors”…

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    …while warning that the nat’l guard has been “fully mobilized”.

    Of course! Nobody would be looting if it weren’t for the KGB, duh.

    * * *

    Update (1200ET): Perhaps confirming his reasoning for maintaining his Twitter feed (to counter the ‘fake news’ media), President Trump has tweeted in response to the blame-scaping occurring below:

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    There is a delicate tightrope of a path to tread here as politicians, officials, media are forced to admit that these “protests” are now “riots” and while the death of George Flynn at the hands of an over-zealous cop to say the least was egregious, the rioting, looting, and shooting across the nation last night is hard for even the most ardent member of the ‘Resistance’ to defend.

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    So, what they need is a narrative-shifting bump, to get back to the “it’s racism and it’s Trump’s fault” narrative that Biden began yesterday.

    And cue this morning’s Minneapolis, St.Pauls, Minnesote officials press conference this morning to set up the pretense…

    First, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz summed-up the current chaos erupting nationwide perfectly:

    “These are outsiders… This is absolutely no longer about George Floyd or addressing inequities anymore. This is an organized attack designed to destabilize civil society.”

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    Then Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey confirmed that the people who are coming to Minneapolis to protest are not residents and are “coming in largely from outside the city.”

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    Our Minneapolis residents are scared and rightfully so. We’ve seen longterm institutional businesses overridden. We’ve seen community institutions set on fire. And I want to be very, very clear. The people that are doing this are not Minneapolis residents,” he said at a news briefing on Saturday. He said the protests earlier this week that were mostly peaceful and were largely attended by those who lived in the city, but “the dynamic has changed.”

    “Gradually that shift was made and we saw more and more people coming from outside of the city. We saw more and more people looking to cause violence in our communities, and I have to say, it is not acceptable,” Frey said. “This is no longer about verbal expression. This is about violence and we need to make sure that it stops,” he added. St. Paul Mayor Melvin Carter said everyone who was arrested in his city last night was from outside the state. “What we are seeing right now is a group of people who are not from here,” he said.

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    And then finally, Minneapolis Department of Public Safety Commissioner John Harrington once again confirmed that narrative:

    “…I’m not seeing peaceful demonstrations. And I am not seeing, frankly, any empathy or any heart for Mr. Floyd”

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    And added that last night we saw a change in the temperament and the approach:

    “…they are what I call rioters…they are not demonstrating for a case, they are not protesting injustice, they were simply bent on destruction.”

    So the question is – who are “they”? These rioters that suddenly appeared out of nowhere to instill anarchy in the peace-loving people of Minneapolis (and 35 other cities around the nation)? Harrington appears to have an answer – it’s a white supremacist terror cell…

    “…as we have made arrests, we have done contract-tracing similar to our covid response… who are they associated with? what platforms are they advocating for? …and we have seen things like white supremacy… part of an organized criminal organization and we are looking at whether this is an organized cell of terror.

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    Which also backed up what the Minnesota AG said: “Yes there are infiltrators…They are white & probably white supremacists…”

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    So, there it is folks. Despite scenes of 1000s of black folks looting stores and firebombing police precincts, this is white supremacists’ fault… probably using Facebook to brainwash otherwise-peaceful Americans who just wanted to go about their day (and definitely not antifa! Don’t you dare suggest that, because that would be racist… just asking an awkward question though – how likely is it that a group of young white nationalists would burn a precinct to the ground?).

  • US Slams Iran-Venezuela "Distraction" As 4th Tanker Docks Without Incident
    US Slams Iran-Venezuela "Distraction" As 4th Tanker Docks Without Incident

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 17:00

    The US has slammed what it’s dubbed the “distraction” of five Iranian fuel tankers delivering gasoline to Maduro’s Venezuela, after four total tankers have successfully reached the sanctions-hit country, with a fifth soon to follow.

    A US State Department spokesman downplayed the whole ordeal, which included large Venezuelan military escorts of warships and fighter alongside the tankers for the final 200 miles to the coast, as an orchestrated distraction which will not stop Washington from continuing to “press for the restoration of Venezuelan democracy.”

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    After the arrival of the first tanker “Fortune” at a Venezuelan refinery, via AFP/Getty.

    For days prior to the cross-Atlantic transport, the Trump administration said it was weighing a response, while Caracas complained last week to the UN of “the threat of imminent use of military force by the United States against Iranian vessels carrying Venezuelan-directed gasoline.”

    At least two of the tankers, the first couple to arrive, are now docked and discharging their fuel, while the fifth vessel, the Clavel, is still crossing the Atlantic Ocean, headed toward the Caribbean. Their safe arrival sparked national celebrations in both ‘rogue’ countries Iran and Venezuela. 

    Iran had previously warned that any US attempt at intercepting its fuel tankers “would have serious repercussions for the Trump administration ahead of the November elections” — suggesting the return of a tit-for-tat tanker war scenario such as played out in the gulf last summer.

    The Iranian flag was raised over downtown Caracas this week:

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    But apparently a potential US-Iran-Venezuela crisis in the Caribbean has been averted. Indeed the White House is now facing multiple crises and doesn’t appear in the mood to indulge in any “distraction” in ‘America’s backyard’ waters at this crucial time.

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    Not only are tensions with China at boiling point, especially now wrangling over the Hong Kong issue, but the corona-crisis is continuing, now with Minnesota race riots and entire city blocks in American on fire — and a White House battle over ‘Twitter censorship’ to boot.

  • Pew: Democrats Represent 41 Of 44 Districts With Highest COVID-19 Death Tolls
    Pew: Democrats Represent 41 Of 44 Districts With Highest COVID-19 Death Tolls

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 16:30

    Authored by Sharyl Attkisson,

    Pew Research Center is out with an analysis of coronavirus deaths. It shows they are overwhelmingly concentrated in Congressional districts represented by Democrats.

    Democrats represent 41 of 44 districts with the highest number of Covid-19 deaths.

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    This lopsided distribution could help explain a partisan divide in the views regarding whether a national shutdown was the right move, and whether it’s time to end it.

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    From Pew:

    The coronavirus outbreak has taken the lives of nearly 100,000 Americans. Yet since the start of the outbreak, the death toll has been concentrated in a just a few places – mostly large metropolitan areas, especially the New York City area.

    The places hit hardest by the coronavirus outbreak – which have relatively large shares of ethnic and racial minorities and residents living in densely populated urban and suburban areas – are almost all represented by congressional Democrats.

    A new Pew Research Center analysis of data on official reports of COVID-19 deaths, collected by the John Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, finds that, as of last week, nearly a quarter of all the deaths in the United States attributed to the coronavirus have been in just 12 congressional districts – all located in New York City and represented by Democrats in Congress. Of the more than 92,000 Americans who had died of COVID-19 as of May 20 (the date that the data in this analysis was collected), nearly 75,000 were in Democratic congressional districts.

    Of the 44 hardest-hit congressional districts – the top 10% in terms of deaths – 41 are represented by Democrats, while three are represented by Republicans. These include the New York-area districts, as well as those in the Boston, Detroit and New Orleans metropolitan areas. The average death toll in each of these hardest-hit districts was 1,122 as of May 20.

    The next 100 hardest-hit districts, which represent the remainder of the top third of districts, with an average of 270 deaths, also are disproportionately represented by Democrats: 75 are represented by Democrats, 25 by Republicans.

    About two-thirds (68%) of the 44 least affected districts – the bottom 10%, with an average 13 deaths in each district – are represented by Republicans in Congress.

    Note: Pew finds there are differences in death rates in terms of race but not poverty level.

    Read more here:  Coronavirus death toll is heavily concentrated in Democratic congressional districts

    *  *  *

    Order “Slanted: How the News Media Taught Us to Love Censorship and Hate Journalism” by Sharyl Attkisson at Harper CollinsAmazonBarnes & NobleBooks a MillionIndieBoundBookshop!

  • "The Largest Ever Physical Transfer Of Gold"
    "The Largest Ever Physical Transfer Of Gold"

    Tyler Durden

    Sat, 05/30/2020 – 16:00

    Two months ago, when the market was in a state of near-total chaos as a result of a sudden collapse in global supply chains due to the hasty coronavirus lockdowns, one market that saw unprecedented turmoil was that of physical gold.

    As we pointed out in late March, due to a sudden breakdown in physical gold supply as the world’s top gold refiners, those located in the southern Swiss town of Ticino, namely Valcambi, Pamp and Argor-Heraeus, suddenly stopped producing gold, the  result was a record divergence in the price of spot gold vs gold futures contracts…

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    … with gold futures decoupling and trading far above spot prices.

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    The resulting record divergence in gold futures vs spot (in some way analogous to what happened to the price of the prompt WTI contract in April, when the May WTI contract traded as low as ($40) as traders were willing to pay buyers to store oil in a world where there was suddenly no space for the physical commodity), unleashed a flood of physical gold into the US as a record scramble by traders rushing to take advantage of this arbitrage opportunity by shipping bullion to New York sparked what Bloomberg said “may be one of the largest ever physical transfers of the metal.

    “The flows into New York are unprecedented,” Allan Finn, the global commodities director at logistics and security provider Malca-Amit told Bloomberg as his company’s teams in New York have been working 24 hours a day to cope with unprecedented demand for physical gold while navigating lockdowns, flight disruptions and social distancing.

    Since late March, no less than 550 tons of gold – worth $30 billion at today’s price and roughly equal to global mine output in the period – have been added to Comex warehouse stockpiles; hundreds of tons of that was imported. On its own that amount of gold would represent the 11th largest sovereign holding, larger than the ECB’s official 504.8 tons of gold.

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    Traditionally, while tens of billions of dollars of gold change hands every day in financial markets, a much smaller amount tends to physically move between vaults in trading hubs like London, Zurich and New York. But that has not been the case in the past two months: it all started to change as the Covid-19 crisis affected the supply chain. As Bloomberg explains what we first highlighted two months ago:

    “when planes were grounded and Swiss refineries closed in late March, traders were worried they wouldn’t be able to get gold to New York in time to deliver against futures contracts. That caused futures, which typically trade in lockstep with the London spot price, to soar to a premium of as much as $70 an ounce.

    That created an opportunity for enterprising traders: buy gold somewhere in the world at the spot price, sell futures, and benefit from the difference by shipping the metal to New York.”

    The scale of the trade has been revealed in exchange reports, import and export data and comments from some of the leading precious metals shipping and vaulting companies. It all came to a head on Thursday, when traders declared their intent to deliver a record 2.8 million ounces of gold against the June Comex contract, the largest daily delivery notice in exchange data going back to 1994.

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    The bulk of this gold came from Switzerland, as Swiss gold exports to the US surged, reaching 111.7 tons in April, the highest on record. Already in March gold imports topped $3 billion, according to the Census Bureau, the highest in at least a decade.

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    To meet the unprecedented demand for physical gold, refineries as far away as Australia have ramped up output of kilobars – the form typically delivered on the Comex – to ship to New York.

    For Brink’s Managing Director Mark Woolley, the spike in demand to ship gold to New York has been unlike anything he’s seen in 20 years in the market.

    “The amount of metal that we’ve successfully moved into New York is pretty significant,” he said Thursday on a webinar hosted by the London Bullion Market Association. “It’s probably not far off the total amount of metal that’s been mined in this period.”

    As discussed previously, the CME Group which owns Comex, responded to the unprecedented market dislocation and the sudden lack of physical gold in New York by introducing a new contract allowing the delivery of 400-ounce bars, the type traded in London. Still, “other changes need to be at least considered,” according to LBMA Chairman Paul Fisher.

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    Valcambi 400 oz “Good Delivery” Gold bar.

    With investor demand for physical off the charts, the enormous movement of gold has been a blessing for logistics companies but also a curse: not only have passenger flights – on which shipments are typically transported – been grounded, but New York City, where many Comex warehouses are located (recall JPM’s giant gold vault just happened to be located right next to the NY Fed’s), has also been a hotspot for the virus.

    To deal with flows, Loomis International U.K. opened up additional vault capacity. Malca-Amit considered using airports in Boston and Philadelphia, but hasn’t needed to yet, Finn said.

    That said, while large volumes and virus-related restrictions at vaults and airports caused some delivery delays, much of the spike in the premium for futures contracts in March – which left banks such as HSBC suffering hundreds of millions in losses – was driven by perception rather than reality, Finn said.

    “My own personal opinion is that any assessment on the inability to get gold in was ill-informed at the time and was made on assumptions rather than fact,” he said.

    Still, the bonanza for precious metals shippers may last a while. As we pointed out last week, large deliveries have seen June Comex futures drop to a discount to spot prices this week, but later dated futures are still at a premium. In fact, according to BofA, in a world in which central banks are flooding markets will trillions in freshly printed fiat and faith in the monetary system is quietly shrinking one day at a time, the one asset the “smart money” wants – as it dumps stocks – is, you guessed it, gold.

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    In fact, a simple correlation between the flood in the global money supply and the price of gold suggests the yellow metal has about $1000 of upside.

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    Meanwhile, as investor interest in other precious metals picked up, futures for silver and platinum have also traded at premiums to spot: “The guys in New York have done a great job,” said Brian Hayward, head of Loomis International U.K.

    “We’re seeing a lot of silver head that way right now” Hayward said in what may be very good news for fans of silver, which recently hit record lows against gold…

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    … a move which may very soon reverse violently.

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Today’s News 30th May 2020

  • Coronavirus Propaganda Mimics War Propaganda
    Coronavirus Propaganda Mimics War Propaganda

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 23:50

    Authored by Jeff Deist via The Mises Institute,

    In the period leading up to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Bush administration and its media accomplices waged a relentless propaganda campaign to win political support for what turned out to be one of the most disastrous foreign policy mistakes in American history.

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    Nearly two decades later, with perhaps a million dead Iraqis and thousands of dead American soldiers, we are still paying for that mistake. 

    Vice President Dick Cheney, Attorney General John Ashcroft, Assistant Attorney General John Yoo, and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, were key players behind the propaganda—which we can define as purposeful use of information and misinformation to manipulate public opinion in favor of state action. Iraq and its president Saddam Hussein were the ostensible focus, but their greater goal was to make the case for a broader and open-ended “War on Terror.”  ​

    So they created a narrative using a mélange of half-truths, faintly plausible fabrications, and outright lies:

    • Iraq and the nefarious Saddam Hussein were “behind,” i.e., backing, the Saudi terrorists responsible for 9-11 attacks on the US;

    • Hussein and his government were stockpiling yellowcake uranium in an effort to develop nuclear capability;

    • Hussein was connected with al-Qaeda 

    • Iran was lurking in the background as a state sponsor of terrorism, coordinating and facilitating attacks against the US in coordination with Hamas;

    • Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, and other terror groups were working against the US across the Middle East in some kind of murky but coordinated effort;

    • We have to “fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them over here”;

    • The Iraqis would welcome our troops as liberators.

    And so forth.

    But the propaganda “worked” in the most meaningful sense: Congress voted nearly 3–1 in favor of military action against Iraq, and Gallup showed 72 percent of Americans supporting the invasion as it commenced in 2003. Media outlets across the spectrum such as the Washington Post cheered the warNational Review dutifully did its part, labeling Pat Buchanan, Ron Paul, Justin Raimondo, Lew Rockwell, and other outspoken opponents of the invasion as “unpatriotic conservatives.”

    Tragically, the American people never placed the burden of proof squarely with the war cheerleaders to justify their absolutely crazed effort to remake the Middle East. In hindsight, this is obvious, but at the time propaganda did its job. Disinformation is part and parcel of the fog of war.

    What will hindsight make clear about our reaction to COVID-19 propaganda? Will we regret shutting down the economy as much as we ought to regret invading Iraq?

    The cast of characters is different, of course: Trump, desperately seeking “wartime president” status; Dr. Anthony Fauci; epidemiologist Neil Ferguson; state governors such as Cuomo, Whitmer, and Newsom; and a host of media acolytes just itching to force a new normal down our throats. Like the Iraq War architects, they use COVID-19 as justification to advance a preexisting agenda, namely, greater state control over our lives and our economy. Yet because too many Americans remain stubbornly attached to the old normal, a propaganda campaign is required.

    So we are faced with a blizzard of new “facts” almost every day, most of which turn out to be only mildly true, extremely dubious, or plainly false:

    • The virus aerosolizes and floats around, so we all need to be six feet apart (But why not twenty feet? Why not one mile?);

    • The virus lives on surfaces everywhere, for days;

    • Asymptomatic people can spread it unknowingly;

    • Antibodies may or may not develop naturally;

    • People may become infected more than once;

    • Young healthy people are at great risk not only themselves, but also pose a risk to their elderly family members;

    • Thin, permeable paper masks somehow prevent microscopic viral spores from being inhaled or exhaled toward others;

    • People are safer inside;

    • The rate of new infected “cases” in the first few weeks of the virus reaching America would continue or even grow exponentially; 

    • Social distancing and quarantines do indeed “save” lives;

    • Testing is key (But what if an individual visits a crowded grocery an hour after testing negative?);

    • A second wave of infections is nigh; and 

    • Our personal and work lives cannot continue without a vaccine, which, by the way, may be two years away.

    Again, much of this is not true and not even intended to be true—but rather to influence public behavior and opinions. And again, the overwhelming burden of proof should lie squarely with those advocating a lockdown of society, who would risk a modern Great Depression in response to a simple virus.

    How much damage will the lockdown cause? Economics aside, the sheer toll of this self-inflicted wound will be a matter for historians to document. That toll includes all the things Americans would have done without the shutdown in their personal and professional lives, representing a diminution of life itself. Can that be measured, or distilled into numerical terms? Probably not, but this group of researchers and academics argues that we have already suffered more than one million “lost years of life” due to the ravages of unemployment, missed healthcare, and general malaise.

    By the same token, how do we measure the blood and treasure lost in Iraq? How much PTSD will soldiers suffer? How many billions of dollars in future VA medical care will be required? How many children will grow up without fathers? And how many millions of lives are forever shattered in that cobbled-together political artifice in the Middle East?

    Propaganda kills, but it also works. Politicians of all stripes will benefit from the coronavirus; the American people will suffer. Perversely, one of the worst COVID propagandists—the aforementioned  Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York—yesterday rang the bell as the New York Stock Exchange reopened to floor trading. He now admits that the models were wrong and that his lockdown did nothing to prevent the Empire State from suffering the highest per capita deaths from COVID. Like the architects of the Iraq War, he belongs on a criminal docket. But thanks to propaganda, he is hailed as presidential.

  • World's Largest All-Electric Passenger Aircraft Makes Maiden Flight
    World’s Largest All-Electric Passenger Aircraft Makes Maiden Flight

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 23:30

    The world’s largest all-electric-powered utility aircraft conducted its maiden flight on Thursday, reported Flight Global

    The electric-powered Cessna 208B Caravan is a utility aircraft produced by Cessna Aircraft Company, has been traditionally used for flight training to recreation, commuter airlines to VIP transport, cargo carriers, humanitarian missions, and Special Forces operations. 

    Flight Global said propulsion company Magnix and AeroTEC, an engineering and flight test specialist, swapped out the plane’s Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6 turboprop engine with an all-electric propulsion system, that can produce 750hp. After the successful test flight, the plane is now considered the largest all-electric passenger aircraft ever to fly.

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    h/t Magnix

    Magnix and AeroTEC believe economically-feasible all-electric commercial flights are just around the corner and could transform regional commuting. Electric planes have been limited for many years because of lagging battery technology — however, that has all changed. 

    Magnix chief executive Roei Ganzarski said the plane is called “eCaravan” and took off from Grant County International airport, located in the central business district of Moses Lake in Grant County, Washington, on Thursday. He said the plane circled the airfield for 30 minutes before landing. The test pilot described the maiden flight as “flawless.” 

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    h/t Magnix

    Ganzarski said the successful test flight was a significant milestone for the aviation industry. 

    Watch: Electric-powered Cessna Grand Caravan makes maiden flight on May 28 

    The current configuration of eCaravan has passenger capacity between 4-5 with a flight range of 100 miles. Ganzarski said the plane is the process of receiving FAA certificates by 4Q21. He said by then, battery technology should advance some more, and it would mean increased range or large seating capacity to at least nine. 

    He said the eCaravan is designed for low-cost travel between cities, and eventually, be able to travel up to 500 miles that would be used for regional flights. A 100-mile flight cost about $6 in electric, opposed to a conventional Cessna 208B using jet fuel, would cost a few hundred dollars with today’s fuel rates. 

    Ganzarski said the plane’s batteries need about 30-40 minutes of charging before a 30-minute flight. 

    He said, “there is way more interest at this point than we anticipated,” while referring to potential customers. 

    Ganzarski’s plane is not the only one in the race for all-electric flight. We noted, Eviation Aircraft unveiled an electric plane at the Paris Airshow last year. 

  • This Is A Full Societal Breakdown
    This Is A Full Societal Breakdown

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 23:10

    Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

    This week’s standard refrain was one of pessimism.  The quick return to economic health mantra that was popular not long ago has disappeared faster than you can say lickety-split.  But there was one notable outlier this week.  In fact, one leading economist stepped forward with assurances that renewed prosperity lays just ahead.

    On Wednesday, Nobel prize economist Paul Krugman looked up from his liquidity trap graphs long enough to tell Noah Smith at Bloomberg that the 1979-82 economic slump “would suggest fast recovery once the virus is contained.  I don’t see the case for a multiyear depression.”

    This sounds great and all.  A fast recovery would end a lot of financial pain and suffering.  Still, we seem to think the damage that’s been done by the government lockdown will have long-term consequences.

    The glorious ascent of the concave parabola of government spending and debt won’t go away.  The budget deficit has grown by leaps and bounds – nearly $3 trillion – over the last four months.  The national debt – currently over $25.6 trillion – has overtaken the economy.

    What’s more, the deficit spending’s being financed by Fed credit that’s created out of thin air.  Again, there will be lasting consequences for this type of depravity.

    Presently, the economy and financial system is in grave trouble.  This is not a cyclical depression, despite what Krugman says.  This is a full societal breakdown.  And the authorities can’t stop it.

    Not since Nero clipped coins in 64 A.D. and fiddled as Rome burned has there been such an intolerable collection of lowlifes in imperial office.  No plans are off limit: Mass surveillance.  Permanent wars.  Market intervention.  Trade wars.  Greater government control.  You name it.

    Yet these tired solutions are the source of the problems…

    Solutions and Fixes

    The authorities may not be able to stop the depression.  But they can try; it’s in their interest to do so.  Their efforts, however, will serve to make a greater mess of things.

    You see, the economy can and will recover from the mounting depression.  Though it may take a decade or more to do so.  Moreover, the intensity and duration of the depression is dependent on the level of government mismanagement.  Thus far, the mismanagement has been remarkable.

    The lockdown may have helped flatten the curve.  But what did it really solve?  The virus is still on the loose.  People are still getting infected.  Yet, thanks to the lockdown, the economy has also been destroyed.

    From one solution precipitated a new problem.  And the fix to that problem caused another problem.  And on and on…

    Economists at the University of Chicago estimate that more than two-thirds of the workers on unemployment insurance are making more in jobless benefits than they did at work.  Some are even hauling in two to three times as much.

    Weekly unemployment payments of $600 granted by CARES Act have been a great boon for many unemployed workers.  These weekly payments also provide a government incentive not to work.  This, in effect, delays economic recovery.

    The government’s solution to the consequences of the government’s lockdown has become part of the problem.  But not to worry.  The government stands ready with a new solution to fix the problem of its making.

    Take Senator Rob Portman, for instance.  He’s proposing a $450 weekly ‘return-to-work bonus.’  The purpose of the proposal is to incentivize people to return to work by giving them free money.  Larry Kudlow thinks Portman has a good idea.  According to Kudlow, this is something the White House is “looking at very carefully.”

    What else are the White House and the central planners looking at?  What other messes will their solutions make?  Several come to mind…

    This is a Full Societal Breakdown

    Unlike the Great Depression, where there were mass bank failures and a collapse in the money supply, the Fed is engaging in mass money printing.  The Fed’s balance sheet was at $4 trillion when Fed Chair Jay Powell rung in the New Year.  Now it’s over $7 trillion…and is headed to $10 trillion by the end of the year.

    These dollar debasement policies produce an endless assortment of economic distortions.  As money loses value, there can be a wide range of outcomes.  Prices change and fluctuate in strange and unpredictable ways depending on people’s mass psychology.

    Will financial assets inflate like they did following the 2008-09 bailouts?  Or, because free money is being delivered to the people, will consumer prices inflate?  Will all the free money produce an economic boom?  Or will the economy stall as inflation rises in a stagflationary quagmire?

    The fact that this is all happening in an election year ups the ante.  As the campaign trail heats up, followed by debates, advertisements, and party conventions, proposed solutions to the economic problem will range from the extreme to the absurd.  You won’t hear mention of freedom, liberty, honest money, and small government…unless you go here.

    But it will be quite a delight to observe, if only the outcomes weren’t so destructive.  Here’s a preview of what’s to come…

    Two hominids, panting at the watering hole, calling each other names, tweeting insults, squawking and shrieking over who gets to divvy up and dole out the peanuts.  One wants to transfer wealth from the rich via payments to the poor.  The other wants to rebuild the nation’s crumbly airports and bridges using money from somewhere.

    Yet the people, following several months of lockdown, don’t want to hear it.  As the weather heats up, and the economy cools down, tensions will combust.  Riots in Minnesota have flared up riots in Los Angeles.  But you ain’t seen nothing yet…

    This is a full societal breakdown.  Racial injustice may be today’s rage.  But there’s plenty of other injustices for people to go mad over.  By the dogdays of August, no doubt, when the weekly $600 unemployment checks program has expired, riots will come to a Target near you.

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    After that, things will really get ugly.

  • Here's What Each State Is Binge-Watching During The COVID-19 Lockdown
    Here’s What Each State Is Binge-Watching During The COVID-19 Lockdown

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 22:50

    With months of government-enforced lockdowns starting to come to an end, Americans have found themselves watching hours and hours of “comfort food” TV during the COVID-19 outbreak.

    CableTV.com recently conducted a survey of nearly 7,000 housebound viewers and found that they’re spending a lot of time with old friends – capital “F” Friends, to be exact.

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    “Friends,” is a clear winner, with 11 states currently binging on the New York City-based show.

    Eleven states, all in blue, have more than one show that their residents are binging continuously.

    Among the most recent shows, Netflix’s “Tiger King,” “The Midnight Gospel,” and “#BlackAF,” make the popular cut.

    Read more here…

  • Paul Craig Roberts Questions The Campaign Against HCQ
    Paul Craig Roberts Questions The Campaign Against HCQ

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 22:30

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    The Covid-19 pandemic has brought out many disturbing features of our society. Misinformation, or perhaps more accurately, disinformation, abounds in the service of agendas ranging from those who interpret the virus as a useful ploy for the construction of a police state, to Big Pharma and its allies who are moving us toward mass vaccinations, to the narcissistic views of those who would sacrifice the elderly and ill rather than to be inconvenienced by being denied access to bars and beaches.  Every aspect of the pandemic, including Trump’s own use of HCQ, is being used against the President of the United States.

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    At a time when accurate information is essential, the waters are instead muddied by disinformation in the service of political, ideological, and profit agendas.  The irresponsibility of those putting their self-interests first is extraordinary.  It indicates that the social bond between people that made America a country has been dissolved by greed, multiculturalism, and Identity Politics.  America has become a country without a common interest. It is a narcissistic state.

    This article is limited to the campaign against HCQ.  HCQ—hydroxychloroquine—has been in use for 65 years for the prevention or treatment of malaria, lupus, and rheumatoid arthritis.  It is officially labeled a safe drug.  Many doctors treating Covid patients have found and reported HCQ, when used early enough together with zinc and the antibiotic azithromycin to be an effective and safe treatment.

    I have reported and made available many of the reports of HCQ’s efficacy and safety.  See for example:

    Despite 65 years of safe use, HCQ is alleged to be dangerous and to cause heart attacks.  Its use is officially approved only for “adolescent and adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19.” Generally, by the time a patient is hospitalized the virus has progressed to a later stage in which treatment is less successful.  Studies of HCQ’s effectiveness, such as the VA one and apparently the more recent one reported in The Lancet, are limited to later stage hospitalized patients and seem to exclude the essential zinc component of the HCQ treatment.  In other words, the studies seem to be designed to exclude from official approval the treatment that doctors have found most effective. It is not easy for a layperson to know what the studies actually say as the media report the studies in an anti-Trump manner.  For the media, what is most important is criticism of Trump, not the effectiveness of a treatment.

    In contrast, the untested investigational antiviral drug, Remdesivir, which has no record of safe use and is extraordinarily expensive compared to HCQ, has been given the same clearence for use. The media is not interested in the effectiveness and safety, or lack of, of this new and untested drug. Trump isn’t taking it, and it is a potential profit-maker for Big Pharma. If Remdesivir fails, the failure will be used to dispose of the hope for cures and to focus on vaccination.

    It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that HCQ/zinc is being sidelined in order to clear the way for a profitable vaccine and a vaccination mandate.  

    But the vaccines are not panning out.

    The Moderna vax touted by Bill Gates and Dr. Fauci caused severe illnesses in one-fifth of the test recipients. 

    The other fast-tracked vaccine developed by the Oxford Vaccine Group proved ineffective. The vaccine produced insufficient antibodies to prevent Covid-19 infection. 

    A few years ago the British medical journal, The Lancet, published a paper touting the safety of HCQ.  But this was before HCQ with zinc was found effective if used earlier enough against Covid-19.  Covid-19 turned HCQ’s effectiveness into a big problem for Big Pharma’s big profits.  

    The solution was another study by medical professionals some of whom have ties to Big Pharma and none of whom, apparently, are involved in the treatment of Covid patients.  The study lumps together people in different stages of the disease and undergoing different treatments. It touts its large sample, but many of the patients in the sample received treatment too late after the virus had reached their heart and other vital organs.  Most likely the people who died from heart failure died as a result of the virus, not from HCQ.  

    To be effective treatment has to stop the virus early. Waiting until the patient must be hospitalized has given the virus too much of a head start. Every doctor, and there are many, who reports success with the HCQ treatment stresses early treatment.  President Trump used a two-week treatment with HCQ as a prophylactic as he was constantly coming into contact with people who tested positive for the virus.  Many medical professionals who are treating Covid patients also use HCQ as a prophylactic.

    The Lancet study was a rush job as it was essential for Big Pharma to prevent the spread of the HCQ treatment and awareness of its safety and effectiveness. The study’s authors completed the data collection around the middle of April and the study was published on May 22.  As soon as it appeared, it was used to close down the World Health Organization’s clinical  trial of hydoxychloroquine in coronavirus patients citing safety concerns. Most likely, the trial was aborted in order to  prevent an official agency from finding out that HCQ worked.

    The media, of course, used the suspended trial to cast more doubt on Trump’s judgment for recommending and using the treatment, the implication being that Trump had put himself at more risk from a heart attack than from the virus itself. 

    The Daily Mail, which is often somewhat skeptical of official reports, even misreported French virologist Didier Raoult’s report ) of his success with treating 1,061 patients with HCQ/AZ as consisting of only a small sample of 30 patients. A small sample is considered to be inconclusive. Thus 1,061 people became 30.

    The Lancet study claims a high mortality from HCQ treatment, reporting a death rate ranging from 5.1% to 13.8%.  In response to a journalist when asked about this claim, Didier Raoult said that he and has colleagues have followed 4,000 of their patients so far.  They have had 36 deaths and none from heart problems for a death rate of 0.009%.  According to The Lancet study, he should have between 204 and 552  patients dead from heart problems.  He has zero.  Raoult had more than 10,000 cardiograms analysed by rythmologists (a special kind of cardiologist) searching for any sign of heart problems.  

    NIH’s Dr. Fauci denies that Raoult’s hard evidence is evidence.  On May 27 Fauci said, without showing shame of his ignorance or his lie, that there’s no evidence that shows the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine is effective at treating COVID-19.

    Perhaps what Fauci means is that no study undertaken by NIH or another Big Pharma friendly official body has been done and that only such studies constitute evidence.

    When hard evidence such as Raoult’s is suppressed and misreported while “studies” doctored to produce a predetermined conclusion that serves Big Pharma profits are rushed into publication, we know that money has pushed ethics out of medical research.  A number of concerned people have been telling us this for some time.  We are past due to listen to them.

    Private medicine is profit driven, which makes it susceptible to fraud.  In long ago days fraud was restrained by the moral character of doctors and the respect for truth of researchers.  These restraints, never perfect, have eroded as greed turned everything, integrity itself, into a commodity that is bought and sold.

    The intent is to bury HCQ as a low cost effective treatment and to put in its place a high cost alternative whether effective or not, and to supplement this enhancement of profits with mass vaccination which might do us more harm than the virus itself.  Big Pharma could care less.  The only value it knows is profit.

    This intent has garnered the support of the French, Belgium and Italian governments. Using The Lancet study and WHO’s termination of its HCQ trial as the excuse, the French government revoked its decree authorizing HCQ treatment. Belgium’s health ministry issued a warning against the use of HCQ except in registered clinical trials. Italy’s health agency wants HCQ’s use banned outside of clinical trials and suspended authorization to use HCQ as a Covid-19 treatment.

    Does this mean that Raoult and his team who by treating Covid patients with HCQ have achieved the remarkable low death rate of 0.009% are prohibited from using the proven cure to save lives? Will Raoult and his team be imprisoned if they continue to save lives? What about the people who will die from the three government’s prevention of a safe and effective treatment? Will France, Belgium, and Italy accept responsibility for these lost lives?

    I can’t avoid wondering if the revolving door between Big Pharma and the NIH and CDC which corrupts US public health decisions also operates in France, Belgium and Italy. Are European health officials elevating themselves by climbing over the dead bodies of their victims?

  • Hong Kongers Scramble To Swap Their Currency For US Dollars As 'Special Status' Threatened
    Hong Kongers Scramble To Swap Their Currency For US Dollars As ‘Special Status’ Threatened

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 22:10

    Even before protests over a controversial extradition bill sparked the tumultuous pro-democracy movement that swept across Hong Kong last year, the notion that the city’s freedoms were under threat, and that China would soon move to curtail them, had been gestating since the 2014 Umbrella Movement. Last Spring, before the movement began in earnest, Kyle Bass published a paper entitled “the Quiet Panic” about how Hong Kong was a ticking time bomb. A few months later, it exploded.

    Over the past 16 months, expats haven’t been the only ones fleeing Hong Kong. Virtually everyone who can afford to move has at least considered the possibility of selling their once extremely valuable Hong Kong real estate and fleeing elsewhere, perhaps to New Zealand, or Australia, or Malaysia – or Taiwan, which is currently drawing up plans to welcome expats.

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    As more prepare to move before China tightens its grip, Bloomberg reported Friday that Hong Kong residents have been exchanging more of their HKD holdings into foreign currencies at banks and money exchange counters on Thursday, according to Sing Tao, Hong Kong’s second-largest Chinese-language newspaper. According to BBG, the paper didn’t cite a source for the data, but it’s not exactly difficult to believe.

    On Thursday, Beijing’s Politburo Standing Committee officially wove a new National Security law into Hong Kong’s constitution, taking advantage of a loophole requiring Hong Kong to always have a national security law on its books. Many have decried the move as a crossing of the Rubicon – that Beijing no longer cares about placating its western “allies” as it cracks down on freedoms in territories it claims.

    The FX activity was driven by concerns about US sanctions, and the possibility that the US will immediately move to revoke Hong Kong’s “special status”, which allows it more favorable trade treatment and other advantages over mainland China. US Secretary of State Pompeo warned that he had recommended to Congress that HK is no longer independent from Beijing.

    Some popular money exchange shops in Tsim Sha Tsui, Central and Wan Chai areas even ran out of USD on Thursday evening, forcing some people to trade their dollar-pegged HKD for GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD and NZD instead.

    Though spot HKD is trading toward the strong end of its band Friday as the dollar weakens against the euro and several other major rivals, Kyle Bass’s bet against the currency peg, which critics once slammed as absurd and unlikely to pay off, is becoming increasingly popular as a trade as derivatives markets price in growing expectations for depreciation.

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    Meanwhile, HK executive Carrie Lam (known to her many detractors as “Piglet”, a reference to the character from “Winnie the Pooh”, published a notice in almost all Chinese-language papers in the city calling on citizens “not to fear” the national security law, insisting it would only target a “small minority” of “criminals”.

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    We imagine this trend isn’t over yet. Let’s hope Hong Kong has enough foreign reserves to stave off a wider banking crisis.

  • Nationwide Chaos: NYPD Precinct Attacked, CNN Vandalized, Treasury Breached As Mayors Beg For Calm
    Nationwide Chaos: NYPD Precinct Attacked, CNN Vandalized, Treasury Breached As Mayors Beg For Calm

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 21:53

    Update (2315ET): Rioters made quick work of the CNN logo outside the building, covering it with graffiti and standing on it, as if declaring victory over fake news.

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    In Atlanta, vandals broke into the College Football Hall of Fame where they stole memorabilia.

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    Meanwhile, the Treasury Department in DC was breached by rioters, who spray painted the building. According to CNN, some of the protesters were stopped by US Secret Service but eventually let go.

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    Trying their best to calm things down were New York Mayor Bill de Blasop, who tweeted “We have a long night ahead of us in Brooklyn. Our sole focus is deescalating this situation and getting people home safe. There will be a full review of what happened tonight. We don’t ever want to see another night like this.”

    Atlanta Mayor Keisha Bottoms admonished the protesters – telling them “You are disgracing our city, you are disgracing the life of George Floyd”

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    Maybe the protesters just need to listen to Killer Mike:

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    *  *  *

    ‘With ongoing social unrest in Minneapolis, protests are unfolding across major US cities on Friday evening. From Washington, D.C. to New York City to Atlanta to Ohio to Los Angeles to San Jose, tens of thousands of people are marching on the street demanding justice for George Floyd, the man who was killed by Minneapolis Police on Monday.

    Starting in Atlanta, protesters have attacking CNN’s headquarters. 

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    h/t Ryan Maue

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    h/t Ryan Maue

    The Atlanta protests quickly turned violent:

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    CNN’s Fernando Alfonso reports the social unrest outside of his newsroom. 

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    Protesters are now setting Atlanta Police Department (APD) vehicles on fire. 

    Portions of the CNN Center in Atlanta have been outright destroyed even as police in riot gear defend the building

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    The Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets several pictures of the chaos and destruction unfolding in downtown Atlanta.  

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    h/t The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

    “Black Lives Matter” signs were spotted in Atlanta. 

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    h/t Twitter account natebobphil

     It’s getting wild in Atlanta tonight 

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    In Washington, D.C., hundreds of protesters, if not thousands, have assembled outside of the White House. 

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    A protester climbed the fence of a federal building and spray-painted “Fuck Trump.” 

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    h/t NBC’s Tom Lynch

    Here’s the video:

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    Secret Service clashes with protesters

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    Hundreds, maybe even thousands, are marching the streets towards the White House this evening. 

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    Protesters continue to clash with Secret Service in front of the White House. 

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    More folks headed to the White House. 

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    According to VOA’s Steve Herman, “the White House is on lockdown, with many reporters stuck inside,” due to demonstrations outside.

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    In New York City, thousands hit the streets in Manhattan to protest police brutality. 

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    NYPD protecting the entrance of the Barclays Center earlier today. 

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    h/t Twitter handle Lemu

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    The protest goes from peaceful to violent quickly in NYC.

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    As night falls, rioters have attacked and overrun the 88th precinct in Brooklyn, resulting in a level 3 mobilization, which requires all special units respond and four cars from every command in the city to location. The 84th precincts is under siege, as well. Also, Brooklyn North.

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    The situation in the Big Apple is quickly turning from bad to worse, with unconfirmed reports that officers have been shot:

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    Police vans were lit on fire by the angry mob:

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    The situation in Brooklyn is critical:

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    One Twiter user tweets a list of cities where protests have been seen on Friday evening. 

    • Louisville, KY
    • Minneapolis, MN
    • Atlanta, GA
    • Los Angeles, CA
    • Evansville, IN
    • Columbia, SC Charlotte
    • NC Memphis, TN
    • Tampa Bay, FL
    • Columbus, OH
    • New York City
    • Phoenix, AZ
    • Omaha, NE
    • St. Louis, MO
    • Ferguson, MO
    • Houston, TX

    In Houston, protesters clash with police. 

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    Protesters “temporarily shut down the northbound lanes of 288 going into downtown Houston Friday afternoon,” tweeted Houston Chronicles’ Mark Mulligan. 

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    h/t Houston Chronicles’ Mark Mulligan

    Protesters unleash hell on a Houston Police car.

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    One Twitter user says “snipers” are “on buildings” in Houston. 

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    On the West Coast, protests in downtown Los Angeles have begun. 

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    h/t AIR7HD 

    In San Jose, protesters are shutting down 101 Highway.

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    Nationwide protests are likely to get worse through the weekend. It’s only a matter of time before more governors deploy the Nation Guard to restore order. America is quickly descending into chaos. 

    Watch Protests Live:

    Live: George Floyd Death Protests Around The U.S. | NBC News

    George Floyd death: Protests continue for 4th straight day in Minneapolis | LIVE

  • Three Ways Lockdowns Are Costing Human Lives
    Three Ways Lockdowns Are Costing Human Lives

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 21:50

    Authored by Kladji Bregu via The Mises Institute,

    The conversation about the lockdowns when the COVID-19 crises started was centered on saving lives at the cost of the economy. This makes sense since many of those making decisions were epidemiologists and we cannot expect them to fully understand the impact of lockdowns on the economy and human lives. The problem is even many economists argued the same and completely ignored the harm that would be created by the lockdowns.

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    These economists have fallen prey to what Frédéric Bastiat called the “unseen” consequences of a policy. Frédéric Bastiat argued that an “act, a habit, an institution, a law, gives birth not only to an effect but to a series of effects. Of these effects, the first only is immediate; it manifests itself simultaneously with its cause — it is seen. The others unfold in succession — they are not seen: it is well for us, if they are foreseen.” Applied to lockdowns this means that it is easier to see the deaths caused by COVID-19 than to see the deaths caused by lockdowns. In what follows I provide three arguments on how the economic lockdowns are costing us human lives and will continue to do so long after they end.

    Deaths of Despair

    A recent study finds that we could have up to 75,000 more deaths of despair over the next 10 years. Deaths of despair refer to suicides and deaths from abuse of alcohol and drugs. The study argues that these deaths will primarily be caused by increased unemployment, fear, and isolation. Unemployment is the main factor and the analysis is based on the projected unemployment rate between 2020 and 2029. The authors estimate that in the best case scenario (lowest unemployment) we will have about 28,000 more people die because of deaths of despair and in the worst-case scenario (highest unemployment) we could have up to 154,000 more people die. Given that a recent study that shows unemployment will remain high for a prolonged period of time we can expect the number to be higher than 75,000.

    This is not the only study that argues unemployment is directly related to deaths of despair. Consider for instance a NBER study found an increase of 3.6 percent on opioid death rate for each one percent increase in unemployment. Based on this, we could see another 29,000 more deaths because of opioids annually. One may argue that these are only predictions, but sadly the indications we have so far show support for these studies. For instance, a doctor in Bay Area, California told a local ABC7 reporter “I mean, we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.” This is not one isolated case, Washington Examiner has reported recently that “More people died of suicide in a single Tennessee county last week than of the coronavirus across the entire state, according to one local official.” Hence, the lockdowns either directly through isolation or indirectly through unemployment are costing us many human lives.

    Deaths Because of a Lack of Preventive Care

    In a recent interview for Fox News, Dr. Scott Atlas, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, argued that now “the cure is bigger than the disease at this point.” He argued that in the U.S. every month 150,000 people are diagnosed with cancer, but the numbers are now much lower. Unfortunately this will lead to higher death rates for this group of people. Add to this the people who are not receiving their chemotherapy as they should and we start to see a clearer picture of how the lockdowns are harming the human lives of those with who have cancer. These are only two examples but if we consider the many more preventive care visits that are not happening it becomes clear that we will see increased deaths because of a lack of preventive care.

    This has become such a big concern for doctors so that many of them are speaking out against this and hopefully we will see a policy response soon. As it is reported in this Forbes article at least 600 doctors around the country are calling for an end to lockdowns and their reasoning is in line with that of Dr. Scott. As Dr. Marilyn Singleton argued “Ending the lockdowns are not about Wall Street or disregard for people’s lives; it about saving lives.”  

    Deaths Because of Hanger and Malnourishment  

    When the lockdowns started many argued that it was worth giving up some economic growth in order to save lives. Unfortunately these people miss the point that economic growth is what saves millions of lives around the globe every single year. We know that as economic conditions get worse many people around the world struggle to meet their basic nutritional needs and this leads to more deaths. In the New York Times,  Abdi Latif Dahir argues that in 2020, 265 million people will find themselves in acute hunger and that will be nearly double the year before. To put this in perspective let us consider that poverty had declined since 1998. But one may ask isn’t the economic downturn because of the COVID-19 crisis? As Ryan McMaken has noted, in previous similar pandemics we did not have the economic downturn we are experiencing now, so the answer is no this is because of the economic lockdowns not the COVID-19 pandemic.

    What is more, this is not a problem that only poor countries will face. Even though poor countries will be hit the most, we are seeing the consequences here in the U.S already. Consider for instance that “according to a survey that found 37% of unemployed Americans ran out of food in the past month and 46% said they worried about running out.” While deaths directly caused by hunger may not be high in the U.S. we must keep in mind that malnourishment also harms our health and leads to more deaths in the long run.

    Conclusion

    The careful and concerned reader may argue that it may be true lockdowns cost human lives but so does COVID-19 so we had to implement the lockdowns. This is a good point and it is not the purpose of this article to diminish the danger COVID-19 poses to certain groups of people in our society or diminish the value of the hundreds of thousands of lives that have been lost. The point of the article is that we must consider the tradeoffs carefully since both COVID-19 and lockdowns both cost us human lives. So, the answer is not as simple as it is sometimes presented by officials who are so eager to shut everything down.

    If we do not correctly take into account the opportunity cost, in terms of lives that can be lost from lockdowns, then we will most likely continue to make bad decisions in the future. We need to look for alternatives and instead of locking down the whole economy we should protect those who are the most vulnerable. But, even when we consider this solution, we should keep in mind that centralized solutions hardly ever work for such complex issues and large countries like the U.S.

  • 'Trump Supporters Targeted' – Gunshot Fired Into Arizona RNC Field Office 
    ‘Trump Supporters Targeted’ – Gunshot Fired Into Arizona RNC Field Office 

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 21:30

    A Republican National Committee (RNC) official tells Fox News that someone fired a gun into the RNC office in Mohave County, Arizona on Thursday evening. 

    The official said the incident occurred at the Mohave County Republican Office in Bullhead City, Arizona, around 7 pm on Thursday. At the time, there were five volunteers gathered inside when the bullet shattered a window near the entrance. 

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    Mohave County Republican Office in Bullhead City, Arizona

    There were no injuries, but the official said the bullet’s trajectory came “extremely proximity” to where volunteers were working. The official described the incident as a very “scary situation,” and said local law enforcement is investigating the matter along with possible motives. 

    “Last night, another group of President Donald Trump supporters appeared to be targeted when a gunshot was fired into a clearly-marked local Republican office while they were inside hosting an event,” Trump Victory spokesman Rick Gorka told Fox News. “Thankfully, no one was hurt.”

    He added: “This pattern of violence against our volunteers is sickening.”

    The incident occurred during the same time of continuing social unrest in Minneapolis (which, at the time, was in the third night), following the death of George Floyd, who was killed by police on Monday. 

    This week, America has become more divided than ever, something we explained in a recent piece titled “”Land Of The Free?” – The Polarizing Politics Of A Pandemic Exposed.” 

    On social media, the riots in Minneapolis have clearly drawn a division between Right and Left of political groups. 

  • CDC Admits COVID-19 Antibody Tests Are Wrong Half The Time & Virus Isn't That Deadly
    CDC Admits COVID-19 Antibody Tests Are Wrong Half The Time & Virus Isn’t That Deadly

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 21:10

    Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

    The mainstream media is ignoring the fact that the CDC has admitted the death rate for COVID-19 is actually lower than the flu. This is happening as the media admits that the antibody tests are wrong 50% of the time!

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    The scamdemic fear-mongering is ongoing and the propaganda is getting worse daily, even as their OWN DATA shows otherwise. Instead of giving the public the facts, the media continues to push for an extended lockdown, freedom trampling regulations, mass surveillance, and our permanent enslavement for their political overlords.

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    The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26 percent.

    Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4 percent estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.

    Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50 percent asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2 percent – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.

    More importantly, as I mentioned before, the overall death rate is meaningless because the numbers are so lopsided. Given that at least half of the deaths were in nursing homes, a back-of-the-envelope estimate would show that the infection fatality rate for non-nursing home residents would only be 0.1 percent or 1 in 1,000. And that includes people of all ages and all health statuses outside of nursing homes. Since nearly all of the deaths are those with comorbidities.  -The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity

    This is something most people have known relatively early on, as the government continued to inflate the numbers and call every death a COVID-19 casualty so they could commit economic terrorism on the entire planet. And those antibody tests the ruling class wants us all to take before can even think about coming off house arrest? Those are only right half the time.  How did CNN spin this into more fear porn and propaganda? Check it out:

    “Serologic test results should not be used to make decisions about returning persons to the workplace.”

    Health officials or health care providers who are using antibody tests need to use the most accurate test they can find and might need to test people twice, the CDC said in the new guidance. –CNN

    So, you can’t be free, which is your birthright, because their tests are inaccurate. It’s actually quite shocking people are even agreeing to these tests in the first place, all to pad the numbers for this scamdemic that has been little more than a hoax since day one. This has become so blatantly ridiculous that it’s actually hard to believe there’s anyone out there still supporting the government and their puppets in the mainstream media. They want you to still be afraid.  They need you in fear.  Do not comply.

  • Gang Of Monkeys Attacks Lab Assistant, Escapes With Coronavirus Test Samples
    Gang Of Monkeys Attacks Lab Assistant, Escapes With Coronavirus Test Samples

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 20:56

    A gang of monkeys in Delhi, India assaulted a laboratory assistant and escaped with coronavirus test samples from three patients, according to Sky News, citing local media.

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    The incident happened near Meerut Medical College. According to the report, one of the monkeys was later spotted in a tree chewing one of the sample collection kits, the Times of India reported – which noted that the patients required new tests.

    It is the latest example of the highly intelligent, red-faced rhesus macaques taking advantage of India’s nationwide lockdown to combat the spread of coronavirus.

    While they have proved an increasing problem in urban areas of the country in recent years, lockdown measures in the last two months have emboldened the monkeys.

    Reports have shown them congregating in parts of Delhi normally crowded with humans. –Sky

    In March we noted that rival monkey gangs in Thailand – driven by starvation due to a lack of visitors amid the pandemic – have been roving the streets looking for food.

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    The ferocity of the animals shocked even locals, who are used to seeing the monkeys on a daily basis. One onlooker who captured video of the monkeys said: “They looked more like wild dogs than monkeys. They went crazy for the single piece of food. I’ve never seen them this aggressive,” according to the Daily Mail.

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    According to the Sky report, people have been advised not to feed monkeys during the pandemic over fears that doing so could cause the disease to mutate and infect primates. If that happened, it could have a devastating impact.

    “The point is, we have very little understanding of the virus, and it is better to limit our interactions with wildlife till there is more research done on its effects on non-human primates and other animal species,” a senior biologist from the Tamil Nadu Forest Department previously told The Hindu.

    “Very often they snatch food from people as they are walking, and sometimes they even tear files and documents by climbing in through the windows,” said Home Ministry employee Ragni Sharma in 2018.

  • All Of The World's Money & Markets In One Visualization
    All Of The World’s Money & Markets In One Visualization

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 20:50

    In the current economic circumstances, there are some pretty large numbers being thrown around by both governments and the financial media.

    The U.S. budget deficit this year, for example, is projected to hit $3.8 trillion, which would be more than double the previous record set during the financial crisis ($1.41 trillion in FY2009). Meanwhile, the Fed has announced “open-ended” asset-buying programs to support the economy, which will add even more to its current $7 trillion balance sheet.

    Given the scale of these new numbers –  here’s how Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins relates them back to the more conventional numbers and figures that we may be more familiar with?

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    Introducing the $100 Billion Square

    In the above data visualization, we even the playing field by using a common denominator to put the world’s money and markets all on the same scale and canvas.

    Each black square on the chart is worth $100 billion, and is not a number to be trifled with:

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    In fact, the entire annual GDP of Cuba could fit in one square ($97 billion), and the Greek economy would be roughly two squares ($203 billion).

    Alternatively, if you’re contrasting this unit to numbers found within Corporate America, there are useful comparisons there as well. For example, the annual revenues of Wells Fargo ($103.9 billion) would just exceed one square, while Facebook’s would squeeze in with room to spare ($70.7 billion).

    Billions, Trillions, or Quadrillions?

    Here’s our full list, which sums up all of the world’s money and markets, from the smallest to the biggest, along with sources used:

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    Derivatives top the list, estimated at $1 quadrillion or more in notional value according to a variety of unofficial sources.

    However, it’s worth mentioning that because of their non-tangible nature, the value of financial derivatives are measured in two very different ways. Notional value represents the position or obligation of the contract (i.e. a call to buy 100 shares at the price of $50 per share), while gross market value measures the price of the derivative security itself (i.e. $1.00 per call option, multiplied by 100 shares).

    It’s a subtle difference that manifests itself in a big way numerically.

  • 33 Examples Of Twitter's Anti-Conservative Bias
    33 Examples Of Twitter’s Anti-Conservative Bias

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 20:30

    Via NewsBusters.org,

    President Donald Trump is right that social media companies have been targeting conservatives. Twitter, in particular, has been engaging in a relentless attack on the American political process by censoring conservatives.

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    Now that has escalated to fact-checking the president nearly five months from a presidential election. 

    The Media Research Center released a report in 2018, which found that Twitter led in censoring the right. That hasn’t changed. Project Veritas caught Twitter with hidden camera interviews admitting the process of shadow banning — which means content is hidden from users without the poster ever knowing it. One engineer admitted that accounts were flagged as bots simply by searching for words such as “America” and “God.” Twitter’s rules have been influenced by liberal think tanks like the Anti-Defamation League and the Southern Poverty Law Center. Since then, Twitter has gotten worse. 

    Here are some examples:

    What Twitter Has Done to Trump:

    1. Fact-checking Trump’s tweets

    A tweet from the president that discussed mail-in ballots was labeled as an “unsubstantiated claim” by Twitter. When Trump tweeted, “There is NO WAY (ZERO!) that Mail-In Ballots will be anything less than substantially fraudulent,” a bright blue sentence was added by the social media platform at the bottom of the tweet. The link said, “Get the facts about mail-in ballots.” The label led to a Twitter Events page, which said, “Trump makes unsubstantiated claim that mail-in ballots will lead to voter fraud.”

    The statement continued, “These claims are unsubstantiated, according to CNN, Washington Post and others. Experts say mail-in ballots are very rarely linked to voter fraud.”

    “From their bogus ‘fact check’ of @realDonaldTrump to their ‘head of site integrity’ displaying his clear hatred towards Republicans, Twitter’s blatant bias has gone too far,” tweeted Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel. She linked to The New York Times article headlined “Error and Fraud at Issue as Absentee Voting Rises.”

    1. Censorship of pro-Life Team Trump videos

    Twitter’s warning and interstitial, or filter, used to keep viewers from unknowingly seeing inappropriate videos was applied to a Trump campaign pro-life promo. Following Trump’s speech at the March for Life, his pro-life campaign video appeared to have been given an erroneous label/restriction by Twitter. The label was removed soon after Twitter admitted the error.

    1. No enforcement of policy for Democrats

    The bias against Trump has become so egregious that even The Hill and The Washington Post are calling it out. “According to emails reviewed by The Hill, the Trump campaign flagged new content on Twitter that it said had been deceptively edited,” The Hill’s Jonathan Easly wrote March 16. One video in question was shared by Mike Bloomberg’s former senior adviser Tim O’Brien and featured audio clips of Trump’s words spliced together and taken out of context, set to a rising graph showing “Confirmed Coronavirus Cases in US.” Former Vice President Joe Biden tweeted a video with similar language.

    Even The Post‘s video editor for The Fact Checker Meg Kelly wrote that Trump “never says that the virus itself is a hoax, and although the Biden camp included the word ‘their,’ the edit does not make clear to whom or what Trump is referring.”

    1. Labeling simple photos of Trump as “sensitive content

    NASCAR star Hailie Deegan posed for a picture with President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump at the Daytona 500 on Feb. 16. After she posted it to Twitter, some of her followers noted that the photo was covered by Twitter’s “sensitive content” filter. Memer and influencer Carpe Donktum (known for his memes that have been retweeted by Trump) tweeted a screenshot of Deegan’s post as it appeared on his feed.

    1. Removing Trump’s Twitter account

    President Trump’s personal Twitter account had disappeared in 2017 and was nowhere to be found until it was restored 11 minutes later. The account reappeared without explanation until Twitter’s official electoral and government relations account provided a bizarre explanation that it was “due to human error by a Twitter employee.”

    How Twitter Has Treated Other Conservatives:

    1. Preventing a pro-life election ad

    Before Twitter banned all political ads, it blocked a campaign ad by Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) for addressing the “sale” of aborted baby parts in the name of research. While she was allowed to tweet the ad, Twitter prohibited her from paying to promote the ad to a larger audience.

    In the ad, Rep. Blackburn announced that she was running for U.S. Senate. To appeal to her conservative constituents, she cited her work fighting abortion.

    1. Senator Mitch McConnell’s campaign video

    It should come as no surprise that the official campaign Twitter account for Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was suspended for sharing a video of the violent threats being made against the senator. Multiple people on Twitter were also suspended for sharing that video, including the Daily Wire’s Ryan Saavedra. Twitter eventually overturned this decision but only after numerous complaints.

    1. Candace Owens censored

    Conservative commentator Candace Owens had her Twitter account suspended for encouraging Americans to defy stay-at-home rules. A Twitter spokesperson said that Owens’s tweet response to Democrat Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s stay-at-home policies encouraging the citizens of Michigan to “stand up” against Whitmer “violated the platform’s COVID-19 misinformation policy, ‘specifically around heightened-risk health claims,’” reported The Hill. Owens’s tweet encouraged Michiganders to “Open your businesses” and “[g]o to work.”

    1. Trump’s attorney censored

    Trump’s attorney Rudy Guiliani’s tweet said, “Hydroxychloroquine has been shown to have a 100% effective rate treating COVID-19. Yet Democrat [Michigan Governor] Gretchen Whitmer is threatening doctors who prescribe it. If Trump is for something- Democrats are against it. They’re okay with people dying if it means opposing Trump.” His tweet was in response to Whitmer, who challenged Trump in a press conference on March 26, 2020.

    1. Turning Point founder Charlie Kirk censored

    Turning Point founder Charlie Kirk tweeted a similar sentiment. He said, “Fact: Hydroxychloroquine has been shown to have a 100% effective rate treating COVID-19[.] Yet Democrat Gretchen Whitmer is threatening doctors who prescribe it[.] If Trump is for something—Democrats are against it[.] They’re ok with people dying if it means opposing Trump[.] SICK!”

    A Twitter spokesperson confirmed that both Guiliani’s and Kirk’s accounts were temporarily locked for violations of the Twitter rules in reference to COVID-19.

    1. Fox News host Laura Ingraham censored

    Fox News host Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) tweeted: “Lenox Hill in New York among many hospitals already using Hydroxychloroquine with very promising results. One patient was described as ‘Lazarus’ who was seriously ill from Covid-19, already released.” After the liberal media demanded the tweet’s removal, a Twitter spokesperson explained that the tweet was removed due to a violation of its new policy regarding tweeting about COVID-19.

    1. Conservative journalist censored

    New York Post journalist Jon Levine announced via tweet on the morning of March 8 that “Twitter locked me out of my account last night over some of the Carlos Maza reporting,” before adding that the platform later took back the decision. “A rep for the company tells me that their action against me was ‘an error.’” But then Levine was suspended again almost immediately afterward, for the same tweets made about the former Vox reporter.

    1. Conservative actor and Trump supporter censored

    Actor James Woods, noted for his conservative Twitter account, was locked out of Twitter more than once. Most recently he was suspended for sharing a picture of former Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum. Woods had initially tweeted, “Just remember, this could have been Florida’s governor in the midst of the #WuhanCoronaVirus pandemic. Make sure you vote #Republican in November like your life depends on it. Because it does. #Trump2020Landslide.”

    1. Conservative sites locked out

    LifeSiteNews has been locked out of Twitter for “violating” its “rules” after tweeting an article about Jonathan “Jessica” Yaniv, a transgender activist who recently complained that gynecologists wouldn’t see Yaniv as a patient, despite having male genitals.

    1. Another site banned for “platform manipulation” violations

    The ZeroHedge founder reportedly, under the pseudonym Tyler Durden, asked, “Is This The Man Behind The Global Coronavirus Pandemic?” and theorized about the coronavirus’s true origins. ZeroHedge was then suspended from Twitter. Forbes claimed that a spokesperson from Twitter indicated that “ZeroHedge was removed for violating its platform manipulation policy, which the social media giant describes as ‘using Twitter to engage in bulk, aggressive or deceptive activity that misleads others and/or disrupts their experience.’” However, The Daily Mail cited a resurfaced research paper from the South China University of Technology, which may lend some credence to ZeroHedge’s initial reporting.

    ZeroHedge founder “Durden” said that he was suspended from Twitter after Buzzfeed claimed that his blog had doxed a Chinese scientist whom Durden argues was a “public figure.”

    1. Failure to enforce consistently

    Citing instances that “violate our abusive behavior policy,” Twitter Safety announced that “Today, we permanently suspended Alex Jones and InfoWars from Twitter and Periscope.” Not only was it enough to take down those accounts, but also, Twitter threatened to “take action” on “other accounts potentially associated with Alex Jones or InfoWars” if those accounts were “utilized in an attempt to circumvent their ban.”

    Meanwhile, comedian Kathy Griffin recently tweeted about assassinating the president, saying, “Syringe with nothing but air inside it would do the trick. F— TRUMP.” Griffin also famously held up a bloody head that resembled Trump. She’s still on the platform.

    1. Criticism of Bernie Sanders is “sensitive content”

    A video posted by MRCTV, an arm of the Media Research Center, was censored as “sensitive content” by Twitter on Feb. 24. “You may recall way back in 1961 they invaded Cuba, and everybody was totally convinced that Castro was the worst guy in the world,” said Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), at the beginning of the video. The clip was from an interview in the 1980s where Sanders defended Castro. It was contrasted with a news clip from CBS that showed people in the streets celebrating after Fidel Castro died in 2016.

    1. 113 prominent conservatives censored between 2015-2019

    Between 2015 and 2019, there have been at least 113 different cases of conservative, pro-Trump or anti-establishment figures on Twitter being punished for expressing their views, many of them well-known in their fields. Notable people have been suspended, banned, blocked from advertising, shadowbanned, and censored. While Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey testified in Congress in September that “Twitter does not use political ideology to make decisions,” the evidence points in the opposite direction.

    How Twitter Defends the Left:

    1. Protecting Joe Biden

    A meme, made to look like a fake ad from former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign, showed the candidate smiling with a beam of light coming from his chest. A statement that says, “His brain? No. His heart,” sits to the left of the person. Trump’s director of communications Tim Murtaugh allegedly tweeted the image, saying, “Is this fake? Can’t trust Twitter, but this would seem to be the Biden campaign leaning in on the fact that ol’ Joe has lost his fastball.”

    Murtaugh’s tweet was removed, said tech magazine The Verge. At least 20 other accounts were allegedly suspended or had tweets allegedly removed, including actress and congressional candidate Mindy Robinson.

    1. Promoting liberal values

    Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey has been consistent in his left-wing political positions. “Dorsey, the billionaire CEO of Twitter and mobile-payment company Square, is giving $5 million to Humanity Forward” in order to “build the case for a universal basic income [UBI],” Rolling Stone reported.

    Dorsey appeared on the May 21 episode of former presidential candidate Andrew Yang’s “Yang Speaks” podcast where he explained the idea of UBI is “long overdue” and that now “the only way we can change policy is by experimenting and showing case studies of why this works.”

    1. Protecting Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

    An account that parodied Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) was suspended on May 6. The user, named Alexandria Ocasio Cortez Press Release, was “permanently suspended” because it was too similar to the congressional representative’s account. According to the Washington Examiner, the man running the account, Michael Morrison, received an email explaining his permanent suspension and ominously saying, “This account will not be reinstated.” Dorsey has expressed his support for the young Democratic Socialist in Congress previously.

    1. Working with Planned Parenthood

    David Daleiden, the undercover journalist for the Center for Medical Progress, reported that the organization had 19 tweets blocked on Twitter, at the advice of Planned Parenthood. The tweets that were blocked reported on the public testimony of Planned Parenthood in court proceedings. Planned Parenthood’s attorneys told Twitter that the Center was live-streaming the hearing. Twitter reinstated the tweets after the appeal explained that Planned Parenthood had falsely described the tweets as a “live-stream.”

    1. Preventing discussion about transgender ideology

    Twitter made it a rule that “misgendering or deadnaming of transgender individuals” was prohibited on its platform in 2018. Several people, including journalist Meghan Murphy, were banned, suspended, or blocked from the platform for statements like “Women aren’t men.” Dr. Ray Blanchard, who helped write the official psychological position on transgender identity, was temporarily blocked on May 12 for voicing his professional beliefs.

    1. Protecting former Rep. Katie Hill

    The Daily Mail took a story that Red State’s Jennifer Van Laar first broke about Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA) and ran it with a link in the story that led to graphic images of the politician with one of her staffers. Twitter then allegedly blocked the Daily Mail’s story, claiming, according to the Daily Wire’s Ryan Saavedra, that “this link may be unsafe.”

    1. Protecting liberal journalists from “Learn to code”

    New York Post reporter Jon Levine alleged that some users were banned from Twitter for mocking recently laid-off journalists from liberal outlets Buzzfeed and HuffPost. Left-wing journalists once told working-class Americans to “learn to code” and adapt to a globalized economy. But now the shoe appears to be on the other foot, as some users tweeted the phrase “learn to code” at journalists who recently lost their jobs. The phrase was a response to journalists who told unemployed coal miners to switch their careers to tech, but journalists didn’t like it when it was used back on them. Some users reported a Twitter claim that users were banned for tweeting this phrase at journalists under the terms of service rules against “targeted harassment,” according to KnowYourMeme.

    What Twitter Has Failed to Enforce:

    1. Violence and doxxing from Antifa

    Smash Racism DC, a branch of Antifa, attacked Fox News host Tucker Carlson’s house, reportedly threatened his wife, and doxed Carlson and his family on Twitter on November 8.

    Twitter did not listen to Fox News’ call for the doxxing tweets to be removed immediately. While the original Twitter posts no longer exist, the National Review’s Jack Crowe managed to document their contents. “Tucker Carlson has been spewing nonstop hate and lies about the migrant caravan. He also has close ties to white supremacists,” one tweet said. “Activists protested tonight at Carlson’s Washington DC area home. You can’t hide from those you hurt, Tucker.#KnockKnockTucker”

    “Racist scumbag, leave town,” another tweet exclaimed.

    1. Calls for violence against children

    A fake news story falsely accused Covington Catholic High School students of harassing a Native American activist. It outraged the internet since the video was later shown to edit out much of the encounter. The story was later corrected by some outlets, but the damage had been done. Twitter did not take down many of the threats or calls for violence against the students.

    1. Chinese propaganda and misinformation

    Twitter restrictions based on its COVID-19 rules haven’t been handled in a consistent manner. The Chinese Embassy in France uploaded an absurd, lego-based propaganda video on April 30. The Ambassade de Chine en France’s video “Once Upon a Virus… featured numerous demonstrably untrue myths, acting as if the Chinese communist government and World Health Organization (“WHO”) have both been forthcoming about the nature of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    It wasn’t fact-checked or removed.

    The video featured a back and forth dialogue between several lego figurines and gave a false chronology of what happened from month to month. A masked lego figurine representing the Chinese regime as a responsible leader amidst the coronavirus appeared to be the foil to the ignorant and irresponsible Statue of Liberty LEGO figurine that represented America. The Statue of Liberty figurine’s flaming torch curiously resembled Trump’s signature hairstyle.

    1. Terrorist recruiter’s video

    A video, tweeted out by a pro-Palestine account, depicted a terrorist shooting up an Israeli shopping mall. The cartoon depicted a young man watching a security guard at an Israeli mall. The flag of Israel was perched atop the building. Disguised as a security guard, the young man sits on a bench across from the Israeli mall and waits. He then walks up, kills the security guard with his own club, and runs into the mall, shooting at shoppers. The video then ends with a focus on Arabic script, which in English translates to “The Intifada is continuing.”

    1. Anti-Hong Kong protester propaganda

    Pinboard, the social bookmarking website run by developer Maciej Cegłowski, captured ads on Twitter from China Xinhua News which called for “a brake to be put on the blatant violence” in Hong Kong. The Twitter account for Pinboard noted “Xinhua, the agency buying these tweets, has literally referred to the Hong Kong protesters as ‘cockroaches.’”

    1. Noted anti-Semite Rev. Louis Farrakhan

    Noted anti-Semite Rev. Louis Farrakhan is still on Twitter and not fact-checked. Reclaim The Net observed that Farrakhan, the controversial leader of the Nation of Islam, was “temporarily kicked off of Twitter.” He was also “temporarily restricted” from Twitter from Jan. 3 up until mid-January, when his account was completely booted. Shortly thereafter, however, his account was reinstated, and a Twitter spokesperson reportedly told Reclaim The Net that “The account was caught by our spam filter in error and has been reinstated.”

    1. China’s accusations against the U.S. go unchecked

    Twitter allegedly censored ZeroHedge for theorizing about the origin of the coronavirus, citing Twitter’s Platform Manipulation policy, but since allowed what Buzzfeed called Conspiracy Theories That The Coronavirus Didn’t Originate In China” to remain online. Spokesperson & Deputy Director General, Information Department, Foreign Ministry of China Lijian Zhao tweeted a piece headlined “COVID-19: Further Evidence that the Virus Originated in the US” at 9:02 p.m. on March 12. Later that day he speculated, “It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan.”

    Twitter’s Investment in Leftist Ideology:

    1. Twitter partners with academics who called RNC speeches “hate”

    Twitter announced it was on a mission to rid its platform of “intolerance” and “incivility.” However, Twitter conveniently chose to partner with “third parties” that were incredibly skewed to the left.

    That group included three openly liberal “experts.” Dr. Patricia Rossini tweeted out from her account back in 2016: “summarizing tonight: hate hate hate WALL hate hate hate LGBTQ hate hate hate BAN IMMIGRATION hate hate hate LAW&ORDER #RNCinCLE.” She also praised former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton for an interview she did, saying “I’m stunned by this interview with @HillaryClinton and her very straightforward evaluation of Trump’s presidency.”

  • Baby Boomers Panic Hoard "Covid Campers" To Escape Big Cities As Second Wave Threats Emerge
    Baby Boomers Panic Hoard “Covid Campers” To Escape Big Cities As Second Wave Threats Emerge

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 20:10

    Americans are packing their bags, purchasing motor homes, and fleeing large cities as fears of a second coronavirus wave emerge. 

    Bloomberg reports floor traffic at Mike Regan’s two RV dealerships near Austin, Texas, jumped 30% compared with last May. 

    “Cooped-up Americans desperate to get out after months of lockdowns are dreaming of doing something—anything—that resembles a vacation. But a majority of them worry a second wave of the coronavirus is coming, and think politicians have pushed too fast to reopen. Unsurprisingly, when it comes to getting out of Dodge, the close-quarters of an airline cabin are a no-go,” said Bloomberg. 

    Regan said, “the minute the campgrounds opened on May 1, and the governor turned everyone loose, our business went through the roof.” He said sales at his Crestview dealerships slumped 50% in April, though expected to be significantly higher this month.

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    RV sales have been widely used as a recession marker (which is something we noted in August 2019): collapsing sales is the start of the downturn, and improving sales could suggest a trough and or upturn. However, as the economy dives into depression, not seen since the 1930s, RV sales are set to rise as the pandemic has frightened people away from crowded cities.

    Not mentioned in the report, another reason for increased RV sales could be due to 38 million people have lost their jobs in the last several months, some may not be able to make rent payments or afford their homes, have started to explore other options for cheaper living accommodations. 

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    Richard Curtin, a researcher at the University of Michigan who follows the RV industry, said the latest surge in RV buying shows consumers are still intact despite a “coronavirus recession.” However, he did not breakdown the sales in terms of demographics, which is likely to show baby boomers are the largest buyers – as the downturn has crushed millennials.

    Regan said many of the buyers in May were considered the first time, and their motives for purchasing were due to the ongoing pandemic.  

    Mike Rhoades, 73, of Kyle, Texas, is one of those first time RV buyers who would typically be on a cruise ship, but the pandemic has severely altered his way of life. He purchased a $30,000 trailer and is planning a several week trip along the Texas Gulf Coast.  

    Camping World Holdings Inc., think of it as a giant toy shop for baby boomers, said RV sales in the first-quarter beat analyst projections. The company shifted much of its sales online during lockdowns.  

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    Thor Motor Coach CEO Bob Martin said first-time buyers are buying entry-level and mid-range RVs. 

    Every dealer that I talk to is just blown away by the reaction of people that have never even thought about an RV,” Martin said. “A lot of people are really going to look more at this lifestyle.”

  • Snyder: A Society On The Brink Of Complete And Utter Chaos
    Snyder: A Society On The Brink Of Complete And Utter Chaos

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 19:50

    Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

    It is heartbreaking to watch the violence that is taking place on the streets of Minneapolis.  I have quite a few relatives that live in the Twin Cities area, and I have been there many times.  In the old days it always felt so peaceful, but not anymore.  The tragic death of George Floyd has unleashed a massive wave of anger, and the riots have made headlines all over the globe.  Originally, many had anticipated that Thursday night would not be as violent as Wednesday night was, but that was not a safe assumption to make.  Around 10 o’clock, protesters stormed into the Minneapolis Police Department’s 3rd Precinct building and set it on fire

    Minneapolis is in the midst of a third night of unrest in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death, with protesters taking over the police department’s 3rd Precinct building late Thursday night.

    The break-in happened at about 10 p.m., with helicopter footage showing a large fire burning near the main entrance.

    Police released a statement, saying in part, “in the interest of the safety of our personnel, the Minneapolis Police Department evacuated the 3rd Precinct of its staff. Protesters forcibly entered the building and have ignited several fires.”

    As the building burned, fireworks were being shot into the sky in celebration.

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    Of course the violence that we witnessed the previous evening was quite alarming as well.  By the end of the night, rioters had torched and looted a number of prominent retail stores

    Shocking images Thursday morning showed the widespread destruction left overnight after stores including Wendy’s, Target, Walmart and Autozone were looted and some even set on fire.

    Mayor Frey pleaded for calm ahead of more expected protests this evening telling residents ‘we cannot let tragedy beget more tragedy.’

    Videos also showed what was reported to be an apartment building entirely engulfed by flames as rioters stood and watched and the fire department was nowhere to be seen.

    I don’t think that any of us will ever forget watching a Target store being looted, and at this point Target has decided to close all of their locations in the entire state “until further notice”.

    Overall, more than 50 buildings were burned down on Wednesday night, and one protester boldly declared that “the whole city can burn down”

    “The whole city can burn down. They should all be out here protesting, not just people who care about black lives. Everybody. Burn it down. Make them pay. Maybe then they’ll understand,” one protester, Elicia S.—she declined to give her full last name—told The Daily Beast late Wednesday.

    “I read somewhere that you’re never gonna care until it hits your front door. We are here now, knocking in the front door,” demonstrator Becky Mathews added.

    Sadly, it isn’t just the rioters that are out of control.

    When George Floyd was arrested, it wasn’t for committing a violent crime.  He was accused of “allegedly trying to pay at a local deli with a counterfeit $20 bill”, and surveillance video from the scene does not support police claims that he resisted arrest.

    Officer Derek Chauvin knelt on Floyd’s neck for eight entire minutes, and video of the moment when Floyd finally lost consciousness is absolutely horrifying.

    Of course this is far from an isolated incident.  According to the Los Angeles Times, approximately one out of every 1000 African-American males will die at the hands of our police…

    About 1 in 1,000 black men and boys in America can expect to die at the hands of police, according to a new analysis of deaths involving law enforcement officers. That makes them 2.5 times more likely than white men and boys to die during an encounter with cops.

    Look, I have friends that are current or former police officers, and I am so thankful for the good men and women that work so hard to protect all of us day in and day out.

    But the truth is that there are a lot of really bad apples out there, and troubling incidents are happening with increasing frequency all over the nation.

    For example, a young mother named Sara Walton Brady was recently arrested by the police in Idaho for simply taking her children to play in the park.  The following comes directly from a message that she sent to me, and she said that I could share it with all of you…

    On April 21, 2020 I saw a video on Facebook by other moms about a playdate at Kleiner Park scheduled for the afternoon. That video showed people at the park and the tape ripped down from the play structures. I decided to go with my two middle children and showed up about an hour late.

    I was only there 5-10 minutes when three officers from the Meridian Police Department arrived; one Sgt. And two officers. The Sgt., who I now know is Sgt. Fiscus, came marching onto the playground ordering all of the children and moms off of the bark and playground area while brusquely explaining that the city of Meridian the parks and they were closed by the order of the governor and the mayor.

    This obviously upset several of the moms there, including myself. I attempted to ask questions to the Sgt. About what authority he had to remove people from the park. During this attempted dialogue he continued to tell people that the playground area was closed and people needed to leave. However, he continually directed people to a concentrated area on the grass, which would have been a violation of the Idaho governor’s order of being closer than 6 feet. None of this made sense to me as I saw multiple other people recreating in the park – walking, fishing, and even people playing a game of basketball. It also didn’t make sense to me why we could be closer together on the grass and it was okay to violate that portion of this new found rule, but not on the park where the kids and the adults were much more spread out.

    As I continued to ask these questions the situation became more heated and eventually the officer told me I had five seconds to leave the park or he was going to arrest me. The officer then proceeded to count down to me, as I often do to my children when they are not listening. I told him “Fine! Arrest me for being in a park! Do it!” While turning around to his threat.

    I was placed inside the back of a very hot patrol car and left there for several minutes at which time I was eventually booked into jail for a misdemeanor trespassing charge. I was also accused of tearing the tape down on the playground that was had been placed there previously. I did not tear down any tape as it was down when I arrived. I was told that children had ripped it down.

    .Multiple other people were on the bark while I was arrested yet no one else was charged with trespassing, cited, or arrested I was also told that after I was transported to the jail that several people went back onto the bark (after tearing more tape down) and began playing on the playground and bark as the police watched. None of this was addressed by the police.

    My case has now been conflicted to the State of Idaho. This is very concerning to me that they have not dismissed the case and they have unlimited resources to make an example of me. It’s also concerning to me that while people are losing their jobs and businesses’ that the State would use hard earned taxpayer money to waste on a mom who was at a park with her kids and try to make an example of me.

    Please help me raise funds for legal fees to fight the State of Idaho. I am told that it could cost anywhere from $30,000-$50,000. You can go to supportsarabrady.com.

    Sincerely,
    Sara Walton Brady

    I was friends with Sara Walton Brady long before this incident occurred, and I can tell you that she is a rock solid citizen.

    In fact, Idaho would not be in the giant mess that it is today if a lot more patriots like her lived in the state.

    Unfortunately, the truth is that the whole country is a giant mess, and what we have witnessed so far is just the beginning.

    Our entire society is on the brink of a complete and utter meltdown, and I expect that the upcoming election will bring tensions that have been simmering all over the nation to a boiling point.

    There is a reason why so many people are looking to move out of our major cities right now.  America is literally in the process of coming apart at the seams, and there will be a lot more rioting, looting and civil unrest in the days ahead.

  • 'Nothing Improper, And FBI Knew It': Flynn Transcripts Released
    ‘Nothing Improper, And FBI Knew It’: Flynn Transcripts Released

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 19:30

    Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) released the transcripts between then-incoming National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and Russian Ambassador Sergei Kisliak, which revealed that Flynn asked Russia to take “reciprocal” against sanctions levied by the Obama administration over interference in the 2016 US election.

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    I ask Russia to do is to not, if anything, I know you have to have some sort of action, to only make it reciprocal; don’t go any further than you have to because I don’t want us to get into something that have to escalate tit-for-tat,” Flynn told Kisyak.

    Despite clear evidence to the contrary, Former FBI agent Peter Strzok used that conversation as a basis to continue his investigation into whether Flynn was a potential Russian agent, according to recently unsealed court documents. The agency used the call as leverage to try to get the retired general to admit to a violation of the Logan Act – an obscure old law nearly a quarter-century old which prohibits private citizens from interfering in diplomacy (which, as it turns out, is standard practice among members of transitioning administrations).

    FBI agent Joe Pientka, who interviewed Flynn with agent Strzok, wrote in his interview notes that he did not believe Flynn was lying to them during the interview – while other recently unsealed notes revealed that the FBI considered a perjury trap against Flynn to “get him fired.”

    After the FBI’s malfeasance came to light, the DOJ moved to drop the case against Flynn – which US District Judge Emmet Sullivan has refused to do – instead asking a retired federal judge, John Gleeson, to provide legal arguments as to whether Sullivan should hold Flynn in criminal contempt for pleading guilty to FBI agents – which he now says he did not do.

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    Following the release of the transcripts, Sen. Grassley said in a statement: “Lt. General Flynn, his legal team, the judge and the American people can now see with their own eyes – for the first time – that all of the innuendo about Lt. General Flynn this whole time was totally bunk. There was nothing improper about his call, and the FBI knew it.

    Earlier Friday, DNI John Ratcliffe declassified the transcripts and released them to Congress. See below:

  • As Minneapolis Burns, Armed Citizens Deter Rioters & Looters Without Firing A Shot
    As Minneapolis Burns, Armed Citizens Deter Rioters & Looters Without Firing A Shot

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 19:10

    Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

    The only thing between several businesses and a bunch of people rioting is a couple of unnamed armed citizens.

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    As all hell breaks loose in Minneapolis over the lack of action taken against a police officer who killed a citizen on video, some self-titled “free Americans” helped store owners protect their property. They heard that the store owners had boarded up windows and were standing guard with machetes, and they went to help.

    But if you think the men were there because they disagreed with the protests, you’d be incorrect. In a statement to Max Nesterak, a reporter for the Minnesota Reformer, the men said:

    “Basically you see the records that cops keep,” one man told Nesterak in a now-viral video posted to Twitter. “And cops are a lot less likely to try and tread on people’s rights when there’s other armed Americans with them. So I figured it’s about damn time that some heavily armed rednecks stood with fellow citizens.”

    “It turns out these guys are out here with machetes and shattered windows trying to keep looters out of the businesses ’cause cops can’t get in here,” one man said. “So I figured before there were cops, there were just Americans, so here we are.”

    “Bottom line, justice for Floyd and I hope they stop looting at some point. If there were more of us we could go stop them from looting, but it’s just us four,” said the man on the right.

    “We definitely don’t agree with the looting, but we agree with the cause of the protests,” the other man said. (source)

    Watch the interview here:

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    As of today, the good Samaritans are still unidentified.

    This isn’t the first time armed citizens protected businesses during times of unrest.

    This is not the first time that armed citizens have protected property during riots.

    During the Ferguson riots in 2015, St. Louis Ink Tattoo Studio and County Guns remained unscathed as businesses around them burned or were looted, due to the protection of armed citizens.

    After hearing of the roving bands of looters, Mike Gutierrez knew he had to protect his tattoo shop. He brought a posse with him, including Adam Weinstein, owner of County Guns, who was acutely worried about criminals getting their hands on his merchandise.

    “We didn’t want them coming in here and then running around with a bunch of free guns,” Weinstein told Daily RFT when we arrive at the store around 12:30 a.m. this morning. Weinstein was outfitted with an assault rifle, pistol and tactical vest. Gutierrez cradled his own rifle in his hands. (source)

    And who can forget the videos of Korean-American store owners in Los Angeles protecting their businesses with a variety of firearms as angry mobs besieged the area during the LA Riots of 1992?

    This should serve as a reminder of why citizens need guns

    After the on-camera death of George Floyd, it was a given that unrest would ensue, particularly when the police officer who killed him and the three who stood by and prevented citizens from coming to Floyd’s aid were merely fired and not arrested.

    If you’re faced with an angry mob, you’re going to want as much force equalization as possible. In all the cases above, no armed citizens shot anyone. Their presence and willingness to defend their property served as a sufficient deterrent, as is often the case. In nearly every situation, people rioting are going to choose targets that aren’t likely to kill them. And this doesn’t just hold true for civil unrest – a gun in the hands of a determined person has deterred countless crimes – and I speak from experience.

    You can’t count on the police to save you during times like this – they’re busy and likely couldn’t get through the crowds anyway. You’re completely on your own. And at some point during prolonged turmoil, the police and military will finally throw their hands up in the air, give up, and go home to protect their own families,

    The only person you can rely on to protect your family is yourself.

    The only person you can truly rely on during scenarios like this is yourself.

    While I’m always going to recommend first to not be there during times of unrest, if you are there and you missed the window to leave during a riot, you’re the only game in town when it comes to the safety of your home, your livelihood, and your loved ones.

    Take a long hard look at the threats you face during civil unrest. Wherever you live, whatever your situation, you need to plan as though 911 does not exist. Whether riots are occurring in the streets or not, in the seconds during which the lives of your family hang in the balance, you are completely on your own.

    Sometimes the mob just wants to set your home or business on fire. But In other situations, it won’t stop with the destruction of your property. You may have to defend your home. And for this, you must be armed. No amount of hand-to-hand self-defense training will deter an angry mob but staring down the barrel of your firearm just might. Here’s more information about being prepared to survive civil unrest.

    Being willing to protect your family is not an endorsement of police brutality. I know that I am personally disgusted by the action that set off this entire chain of events. However, when the angry crowds are on your street, it’s no longer about the initial incident. People aren’t thinking rationally when it has escalated this far.

    Being armed is a matter of survival in situations where the normal rules of society have completely broken down.

    I’m sure I’ll receive another barrage of email wishing me and my children dead by our own guns. Blah, blah, blah. It always amazes me how people who swear vehemently that they’re against violence can send me those letters that fervently and creatively hope for our gruesome murders.

    Watching the effectiveness of firearms in the hands of people like the ones mentioned in this article to deter violence – not commit more of it – makes me even more determined to remain prepared to protect myself and my family.

    What about you?

  • Chicago's Eurodollar Open Outcry Pits Are Fighting For Their Lives To Remain Open Post-Pandemic
    Chicago’s Eurodollar Open Outcry Pits Are Fighting For Their Lives To Remain Open Post-Pandemic

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 18:50

    The CME eurodollar trading pit – long been facing the threat of extinction as Skynet takes over trading – could finally be facing a perfect storm of headwinds in the coronavirus pandemic.

    The pits are arguably the worst place on the face of the Earth to be during a global pandemic is which being spread by droplets. Traders crowd shoulder to shoulder and scream at the top of their lungs, often breathing and sweating on one another, to execute trades. 

    But in the Eurodollar options pit, traders seem to think they’ll eventually be back, according to Bloomberg. Traders there feel like they can perform better than algorithms and have an advantage on the floor that computers don’t have.

    CME member Pete Kosanovich said: “When it gets busy, there is still a buzz, you can feel things happening. When you hear stuff happen in other pits, it’s a lot like being at Augusta and hearing the ‘Tiger roar.’ If you hear something happen in Treasury options, you can get ready for something to happen in eurodollar options.”

    The floor closed abruptly on March 13 alongside of other trading floor operators, like ICE and CBOE. 

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    Others, who favor electronic trading, think the time is right to finally do away with floor trading. Christian Hauff, CEO of Quantitative Brokers, which sells trading algorithms for U.S. Treasury securities and Treasury futures said: “This is the opportunity to not look back but move forward as an industry.”

    Those in the pit argue that the nature of the product keeps open outcriers in the game. The futures debuted in 1981 as a way to speculate on interest rates paid on dollar deposits overseas. They are the most traded interest rate derivative as of last year, with a daily average volume of about 2.7 million contracts in 2019. 

    In the pit, trades are often structured as spreads, straddles or butterflies – which traders argue gives humans an advantage, due to the large number of possible trade combinations. Kosanovich, for example, has brokered trades with as many as 16 legs. He says he has seen trades with as many as 24. 

    He said: “It seems like it should be easy to trade these complicated multi-legged strategies, but it’s just not. Brokers’ fiduciary responsibility as members is to get the best price for the end user.”

    Before the shut down, the pit accounted for about half of the daily average volume in eurodollar options. But re-opening – given the physical demands of open outcry trading – is going to be tough. This means that the fate of the pit, perhaps for the long-term, is going to fall to the CME Group. Executives have said they wanted to re-open three weeks after the state lifts its stay-at-home order.

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    Market makers and floor brokers would have to sign a waiver to acknowledge they are working at their own risk. CME Chief Executive Officer Terry Duffy said on an April earnings call that keeping the floor open doesn’t cost much and that he intended to abide by the rules that as long as the floor was more than 30% of trading volume, he’d keep it open. 

    The question of whether or not people will have adapted to electronic trading by the time CME re-opens the pit remains to be seen. 

    Thomas Fitch, founder and CEO of RVAssets, which supplies trading algorithms for eurodollar and Treasury options, said: “Nobody was prepared to go to 100% electronic, but the market did it with no problem whatsoever.” 

    Chicago-based futures and options broker Albert Marquez concluded: “Under normal conditions, I would expect that most end-users would want the pit back. It’s far more efficient and markets are tighter. That being said, it’s not exactly the best time for eurodollar options with rates where they are.”

  • "It Felt Like An Earthquake": SpaceX Prototype Starship Blows Up In Massive Explosion Day Ahead Of Manned Launch
    “It Felt Like An Earthquake”: SpaceX Prototype Starship Blows Up In Massive Explosion Day Ahead Of Manned Launch

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 18:28

    In a horribly spectacular failure with the added bad timing of coming almost exactly 24 hours ahead of SpaceX and NASA’s rescheduled attempt to make history by launching two astronauts into Earth’s orbit as part of work on the Commercial Crew program, set for 3:22 pm ET Saturday weather permitting, the Raptor engine in SpaceX’s Starship SN4 prototype blew up on its test stand in Boca Chica, Texas.

    “SpaceX just experienced the biggest explosion yet at its Texas site, where it’s testing prototypes for a Mars rocket,” The Atlantic’s Marina Koren reported Friday afternoon.

    “A resident who lives nearby — just 2 miles away — said it felt like an earthquake,” she added. Koren noted that at this point it doesn’t appear anyone in the surrounding community was hurt in the massive blast which shook the area for miles. 

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    The explosion, which involved a bright fireball ripping high into the air with rocket debris flying, occurred about two minutes after the engine test fire run had been completed.

    It happened at 1:49 central time, and set off a flurry of commentary over the safety of tomorrow’s launch with humans carried to space

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    The test at first appeared successful but then it ruptured in a spectacular fiery explosion.

    TechCrunch brings us some of the following details of the prototype explosion as follows

    This was a test in the development of Starship, a new spacecraft that SpaceX has been developing in Boca Chica. Eventually, the company hopes to use it to replace its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rocket, but Starship is still very early in its development phase, whereas those vehicles are flight-proven, multiple times over.

    SpaceX had just secured FAA approval to fly its Starship prototype for short, suborbital test flights. The goal was to fly this SN4 prototype for short distances following static fire testing, but that clearly won’t be possible now, as the vehicle appears to have been completely destroyed in the explosion following Friday’s test

    Prior stress tests of Starship prototypes have ended in similar disaster as well, but this one comes at a moment national attention has been glued to the NASA-SpaceX partnership given the manned Crew Dragon launch Saturday, though weather is still not looking ideal at this point.

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    Though a prototype and not the same rocket that will be used tomorrow, it can’t be at all comforting to be a SpaceX/NASA astronaut scheduled for lift off tomorrow, as many have already observed. 

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    It no doubt takes the anxiety over tomorrow’s launch to a different kind of level.

    * * *

    Post-explosion live feed:

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Today’s News 29th May 2020

  • Russia Readies Test Of Nuclear-Powered "Doomsday-Drone" Torpedo
    Russia Readies Test Of Nuclear-Powered “Doomsday-Drone” Torpedo

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 02:45

    As American and Russian military jets operate dangerously close to each other earlier this week, for the third time in months, Russia has just announced, it will launch the Poseidon submarine drone, dubbed the “Doomsday Drone” and or a “Nuclear Torpedo,” with an impressive range that could autonomously traverse the Atlantic Ocean and cause quite a stir in Washington. 

    Several Russian media outlets are reporting the developments. RIA Novosti said a military source has confirmed the unmanned underwater vehicle, which can carry a nuclear warhead, is scheduled to launch this fall. The source said the launch would be conducted from a K-329 Belgorod nuclear submarine. There was no indication of where the launch site would be.

    Powered by a small nuclear reactor, Poseidon has a top speed estimated at between 60 and 100 knots, with an impressive range of 6,200 miles, and when launched from the Barents Sea or somewhere in the Arctic, can autonomously traverse the North Atlantic, an area where Russia, China, and the US are each trying to stake a claim, due mostly to the trillions of dollars of natural resources beneath the ocean floor.

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    Poseidon drone. h/t Russian Ministry of Defense

    On Radio Sputnik this week, a military expert, the head of the Center for the Study of Public Applied Problems of National Security, retired Colonel Alexander Zhilin, called Poseidon a “powerful weapon” and spoke about its features:

    “A drone has several advantages. A submarine with a crew on board is, of course, a powerful weapon, but there are certain restrictions on the human factor. Poseidon can practically be on alert and perform assigned tasks at any time. The appearance of drones This class, of course, requires a lot of responsibility, because management is through software. It is clear that there are certain risks when, by convention, hackers can try to take control. But, talking with our engineers, designers, I came to the conclusion that protection against external interference is colossal,” said Zhilin.

    We first noted the development of the Poseidon when Russian President Vladimir Putin officially confirmed the weapon’s existence in his annual address to the Federal Assembly in 2018.

    “We have developed unmanned submersible vehicles that can move at great depths – I would say extreme depths – intercontinentally, at a speed multiple times higher than the speed of submarines, cutting-edge torpedoes and all kinds of surface vessels,” said Putin.

    Russia’s Ministry of Defense released a video of Poseidon’s strike capabilities 

    We noted last year the underwater nuclear drones are capable of devastating enemy coastlines with a tsunami wave up to 1,600 feet that can leave behind radioactive isotopes.

    “The U.S. intelligence agencies estimate Status-6 will carry a multi-megaton thermonuclear bomb payload. For comparisons’ sake the bomb dropped on Hiroshima was 16 kilotons, several orders of magnitude smaller. A one megaton bomb is the equivalent of 1,000 kilotons—one one million tons of TNT. Reports from Russia indicate the bomb could be as large as 100 megatons.

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    Flood model from the wave of 100 Mt explosion near New York City. Clawpack flood modeling (the University of Washington, Norwegian Defence Research Establishment and etc.)

    “Status-6 is designed to attack enemy coastal cities, ports, shipyards, and naval bases. Once Status-6 arrives at its destination it detonates the bomb, causing an enormous amount of damage through blast and heat. A 100 megaton bomb would generate artificial tsunamis, carrying the destruction far inshore.” -Popular Mechanics

    With 16 Poseidon drones ready to launch. There is no adversary of Russia that is capable of overtaking Poseidon at its operating depths and fast speeds. 

  • US Ambassador Richard Grenell's Legacy Of Success In Exposing German Hypocrisy
    US Ambassador Richard Grenell’s Legacy Of Success In Exposing German Hypocrisy

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

    Richard Grenell is stepping down from his role as U.S. ambassador to Germany. The move ends one of the most effective American ambassadorships to Berlin in recent memory.

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    Grenell arguably has done more than any other American official, with the possible exception of U.S. President Donald J. Trump, to call out the duplicity, hypocrisy and recklessness of Germany’s foreign policy establishment.

    On a wide range of geopolitical issues — from relations with China, Iran and Russia to anti-Semitism, climate change, defense spending (NATO), energy dependence (Nord Stream), globalism, Hezbollah, Huawei and mass migration — Grenell embarrassed German leaders by showing that their words and actions do not match.

    The greatest point of contention in U.S. relations with Germany is Berlin’s refusal to honor its pledge to spend 2% of its GDP on defense. Germany, the largest and wealthiest country in the European Union, currently lacks a functioning Air Force and Navy and is completely dependent on U.S. security guarantees. Germany’s unwillingness to pay for its own defense has led to charges that it is “free-riding” on American security. Grenell consistently drew attention to this untenable arrangement, much to the anger of German elites.

    Closely related to the defense spending issue is Germany’s increasing energy dependency on Russia. Despite opposition from the United States and 15 European countries, Germany is determined to complete the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, which will further increase Russia’s leverage as an energy supplier to Europe. Grenell placed a spotlight on the inherent contradiction that while the United States is spending billions of dollars annually to defend Europe against growing threats from Russia, German energy policies are increasing Russia’s grip over Europe.

    Grenell’s skillful use of Twitter enabled him to bypass Germany’s mainstream media and offer an alternative to the official narratives parroted by Germany’s political and media establishment. German elites frequently responded with ad hominem attacks; Grenell remained above the fray and stayed focused on the policy issues.

    Grenell’s greatest achievement during his roughly two years as ambassador was his tireless pursuit of the American interest and his unwillingness to appease Germany’s anti-American establishment.

    Cliff Sims, a former advisor to President Trump, encapsulated the essence of Grenell’s diplomatic style:

    “The mandate of a diplomat is usually to be diplomatic. Trumpian foreign policy is obviously more confrontational. Ric is willing to be publicly confrontational with his host country if it’s in America’s national interest in a way that is not typical historically but directly reflects the way Trump operates.”

    Thomas Jaeger, a political scientist at the University of Cologne, said that Grenell has had an important impact on shaping the public debate in Germany:

    “He had no qualms about putting the German government under pressure in public, which might not have always been the smartest thing to do. But everyone knew Trump listened closely to him. I think they could have used that connection a lot better. In any case, Grenell has been highly effective in getting Germany to talk more about defense spending and about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The public opinion on those two issues has changed, and Grenell certainly had a role in that.”

    Following is a brief selection of Grenell’s tweets, statements and interactions with Germany’s political establishment on a variety of issues:

    Iran

    On May 8, 2018, Grenell’s first day as U.S. Ambassador to Germany, he made a splash with a tweet that the Trump administration was serious about enforcing sanctions against Iran: “As @realDonaldTrump said, US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy. German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.”

    The tweet, which came after President Trump announced that he was pulling the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal, was greeted with indignation:

    • Former German Ambassador to the United States, Wolfgang Ischinger, tweeted: “Ric: my advice, after a long ambassadorial career: explain your own country’s policies, and lobby the host country – but never tell the host country what to do, if you want to stay out of trouble. Germans are eager to listen, but they will resent instructions.”

    • Green Party lawmaker Omid Nouripour said: “Good cooperation means that one does not drive a highly aggressive, ruthless policy towards our security interests and before you even arrive here, you threaten the German economy. It’s simply not a tone of cooperation and we have to say so very clearly.”

    • The then leader of Germany’s Social Democratic Party, Andrea Nahles, added: “It’s not my task to teach people about the fine art of diplomacy, especially not the U.S. ambassador. But he does appear to need some tutoring.”

    Grenell responded by tweeting that what he wrote was “the exact language sent out from the White House talking points & fact sheet.”

    After former German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel insinuated that the United States was no a friend of Germany, Grenell tweeted:

    “Gabriel is now in Iran meeting with the regime to talk about doing more trade deals…. this after an Iranian ‘diplomat’ was arrested in Germany for giving an explosive device to 2 people on their way to blow up a convention in Paris.”

    Grenell also said that months of pressure from the United States led Germany finally to ban Iran’s Mahan Air, which is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF). German officials countered that they took the initiative on their own.

    Hezbollah

    Grenell was tireless in his efforts to pressure the German government to outlaw Hezbollah — Arabic for “The Party of Allah” — in Germany. On December 19, 2019, the German parliament, known as the Bundestag, approved a three-page resolution — “Effective Action against Hezbollah” — that called on the German government to ban the activities of the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group on German territory. According to the Bundestag, a complete organizational ban of Hezbollah is (supposedly) impossible because the group’s structures in Germany are “not currently ascertainable.”

    On April 30, 2020, after years of equivocating, the German government announced a compromise measure between German lawmakers who want to take a harder line against Iran and those who do not. The ban falls far short of a complete prohibition on Hezbollah and appears aimed at providing the German government with political cover that allows Berlin to claim that it has banned the group even if it has not.

    The ban does not require the closure of Hezbollah mosques or cultural centers, nor does it require that members of the group be deported. The ban also does not prohibit Hezbollah operatives from travelling to Germany.

    Israel

    Grenell has been an indefatigable supporter of Israel. Germany claims that the security of Israel is a fundamental element of its Staatsräson, or “reason of state.” German foreign policy, however, is decidedly anti-Israel. Grenell frequently reminded German leaders that their words and actions regarding Israel do not match.

    In recent years, Germany has approved scores of anti-Israel UN resolutions. In May 2016, Germany voted in favor of an especially disgraceful UN resolution, co-sponsored by the Arab group of states and the Palestinian delegation, that singled out Israel at the annual assembly of the World Health Organization (WHO) as the world’s only violator of “mental, physical and environmental health.”

    Much of Germany’s political establishment appears to be fundamentally anti-Israel. In March 2019, for instance, the Bundestag overwhelmingly rejected a resolution by the Free Democratic Party (FDP) to urge Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government to reverse its anti-Israel voting record at the United Nations.

    In February 2019, on the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier congratulated, “also in the name of my compatriots,” the Iranian regime, which openly seeks Israel’s destruction. The move was defended by much of the German establishment as “diplomatic custom.”

    In February 2020, Grenell rebuked the German government for its plans to celebrate the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran:

    “Germany has a moral responsibility to say to Iran very firmly and clearly that it is unacceptable to deny basic human rights to your people, or kill protesters in the streets or push gay people off buildings. Celebrating the regime’s ongoing existence sends the opposite message.”

    In response, Steinmeier’s office announced that it would not send the Iranian regime a congratulatory email on the anniversary of the revolution — but then “accidentally” sent it anyway.

    President Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan

    On January 28, 2020, the Trump administration unveiled its Middle East peace plan. The proposal was widely criticized in Germany. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said: “Only a negotiated two-state solution, acceptable to both sides, can lead to a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians.”

    • Bundestag member Norbert Röttgen tweeted: “The so-called #PeacePlan is to the detriment of #Palestine and presented as an ultimatum depicts a setback in the conflict. It is primarily a contribution to the ongoing election campaigns in the #USA & #Israel and a welcome diversion from domestic crises in both states.”

      Grenell replied: “Abbas is in his 15th year of a 4 year term. The US didn’t cause this conflict but we are trying to solve it. Maybe some help?”

    • The director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Volker Perthes, tweeted: “#Trump’s ‘deal of the century’ is essentially a reflection of Netanyahu’s ideas for #Israel’s relation with Palestinians, packaged as a US ‘peace plan’. Don’t take it lightly though. It will shape developments on the ground, as well as international law debates and practice.”

      Grenell replied: “Europeans who criticize this good initiative from the sidelines, while failing to offer any ideas of their own should be dismissed and ignored for wanting the failing status quo. Less talk, more action.”

    Conservatism

    In June 2018, a month after assuming his ambassadorship, Grenell, in an interview with Breitbartsaid that he wanted to empower European conservatives:

    “I absolutely want to empower other conservatives throughout Europe, other leaders. I think there is a groundswell of conservative policies that are taking hold because of the failed policies of the left.

    “There’s no question about that and it’s an exciting time for me. I look across the landscape and we’ve got a lot of work to do but I think the election of Donald Trump has empowered individuals and people to say that they can’t just allow the political class to determine before an election takes place, who’s going to win and who should run.

    “That’s a very powerful moment when you can grasp the ability to see past the group-think of a very small elitist crowd telling you you have no chance to win or you’ll never win, or they mock you early on.”

    Grenell’s seemingly innocuous comments stoked hyperbolic outrage:

    • Martin Schulz, a former leader of Germany’s Social Democratic Party, said: “Grenell does not behave like a diplomat, but like a far-right colonial officer.”
    • Left Party lawmaker Sahra Wagenknecht called for Grenell’s expulsion: “Anyone who, like US Ambassador Richard Grenell, thinks that he can determine who governs Europe, can no longer remain in Germany as a diplomat.”
    • A parliamentarian for the Social Democrats, Johannes Kahrs, tweeted: “If this is how it was said, then this man should leave the country.”
    • Sevim Dagdelen of the opposition Left party described Grenell as Trump’s “regime change envoy.”

    Huawei

    The Trump administration has repeatedly urged Germany against allowing the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei to participate in its next-generation mobile network. The U.S. government has warned that Beijing could use Huawei technology to conduct espionage or cyber sabotage.

    The President of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl, also advised against a role for Huawei. “Infrastructure is not a suitable area for a group that cannot be trusted fully,” he said.

    In February 2020, after China threatened to retaliate against German carmakers, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling conservatives announced a compromise measure that stopped short of banning Huawei.

    In response, Grenell tweeted:

    “@realDonaldTrump just called me from AF1 and instructed me to make clear that any nation who chooses to use an untrustworthy 5G vendor will jeopardize our ability to share Intelligence and information at the highest level.”

    The tweet elicited a series of responses:

    • Left Party lawmaker Steffen Bockhahn tweeted: “Mister Ambassador, you should know, that parliamentarians are free in mind and in decision. In old Europe we want it like that and we like diplomatic diplomats. It makes real and open-minded conversation much easier. Regards!”

      Grenell replied: “You want a US that doesn’t pressure you to pay your NATO obligation, looks the other way when you buy too much Russian gas, doesn’t demand you take back your Nazi prison guard living in NYC, accepts your higher car tariffs and still sends 50,000 troops to your country.”

    • Bundestag member Alexander Graf Lambsdorff tweeted: “Is there a US vendor the President would care to recommend instead? Does he have a list of ‘trustworthy vendors’? Which criteria does he apply to determine ‘trustworthiness’?”

      Grenell replied: “It’s odd that you don’t think about European solutions. Do you take any responsibility or just blame the US?”

    • A director of the French search engine Qwant, Guillaume Champeau, tweeted: “According to the U.S. ambassador to Germany, the U.S. is threatening to withhold [intelligence] information from states that have Huawei in their 5G infrastructure.”

      Grenell replied: “According to this guy, the US doesn’t get to react to policies we find dangerous. I find it offensive that you think the US cooperation must stay the same no matter what you do. We call that taking us for granted.”

    • German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, a close confident of Chancellor Angela Merkel, created a false equivalency between the United States, which guarantees Germany’s security, and China. On a television talk show, he suggested that American telecommunications companies posed just as much of a security threat as ones from China.

      Grenell responded that Altmaier’s comparison was “an insult to the thousands of American troops who help ensure Germany’s security and to the millions of Americans committed to a strong Western alliance. These claims are likewise an insult to the millions of Chinese citizens denied basic freedoms and unjustly imprisoned by the CCP [Communist Party of China].”

    Defense Spending

    At a NATO summit in Wales in 2014, members agreed to meet a goal of spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense within the next decade.

    On March 18, 2019, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz announced that Germany would not be spending two percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense. He said that the share of defense expenditure in GDP would rise to 1.37% in the short term, but decrease to 1.25% by 2023. Chancellor Angela Merkel had pledged to increase spending to 1.5% by 2024.

    Grenell responded:

    “NATO members have clearly committed to moving towards two percent by 2024 and not moving away from it. The fact that the Federal Government is even considering reducing its already unacceptable contributions to military readiness is a worrying signal from Germany to its 28 NATO allies.”

    The deputy speaker of the Bundestag, Wolfgang Kubicki, called for Grenell to be expelled from Germany:

    “If a U.S. diplomat acts like a high commissioner of an occupying power, he will have to learn that our tolerance has its limits. It is no longer tolerable that the US ambassador intervenes again in political questions of the sovereign Federal Republic. Germany should not tolerate this improper behavior for reasons of self-respect.”

    The SPD parliamentary director, Carsten Schneider, also rejected Grenell’s criticism: “Mr. Grenell is a total diplomatic failure. With his repeated clumsy provocations, Mr. Grenell damages the transatlantic relationship.”

    In November 2019, German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said that Germany would not meet its NATO defense spending target until 2031.

    Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline

    Grenell worked tirelessly to stop the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline directly linking Russia to Germany. The €9.5 billion ($10.5 billion) pipeline would double shipments of Russian natural gas to Germany by transporting the gas under the Baltic Sea. Opponents of the pipeline warn that it will give Russia a stranglehold over Germany’s energy supply.

    On December 20, 2019, President Trump signed into law the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the annual defense spending bill, which included Nord Stream 2 sanctions language. The measure previously cleared the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate by overwhelming margins. The American sanctions forced Switzerland’s Allseas Group SA, which was laying the sub-sea pipes, to abandon work, throwing the project into disarray.

    German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas tweeted: “European energy policy is decided in Europe, not in the US. We reject external interference and extraterritorial sanctions.”

    Grenell, in an interview with Bild, the largest-circulation newspaper in Germany, responded:

    “This is a longstanding US policy that goes back to the Obama administration. The goal has always been for diversification of Europe’s energy sources and to ensure that not one country or source can build up too much influence on Europe through energy….

    “Fifteen European countries, the European Commission and the European Parliament have all expressed their concerns about the project. We have been hearing from our European partners that the United States should support them in their efforts. That is why the sanctions are a very pro-European decision. Currently, there is a lot of talk in Germany about being more for Europe and we believe that when it comes to Nord Stream 2, we have taken an extremely pro-European position. I’ve been hearing all day from European diplomats thanking me for taking this action.”

    Richard Herzinger, political correspondent for Die Weltwrote in support of Grenell:

    “U.S. Ambassador Richard Grenell said that the Washington sanction decision against the Russian-German Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline was ‘a very pro-European decision.’

    “American interest in the European gas market is certainly not entirely selfless. In principle, however, Grenell is absolutely right when he rejects the accusation that the sanctions are directed against Europe.

    “The German government, most recently in the person of Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, incorrectly presents the U.S. punitive measures as an attack on pan-European energy sovereignty. In truth, it is more Berlin itself that isolates itself in Europe with its stubborn adherence to Nord Stream 2.

    “A number of EU governments, especially Poland and the Baltic States, welcome U.S. intervention as a long-awaited step against the expansion of German-Russian energy cooperation, which they see as an eminent threat to their security. The German energy special route has also been met with great skepticism from the EU Commission and the European Parliament, which has spoken out explicitly against the construction of Nord Stream 2.

    “Incidentally, the U.S. sanctions are by no means a further outflow of anti-European affectations from Donald Trump. Rather, they were imposed by the U.S. Congress — with an overwhelming majority that includes both Democratic and Republican members. Such punitive measures had already been considered at the time of Obama’s presidency.

    “Today, many Europeans believe Washington’s intervention is the last hope of stopping the pipeline project that would dramatically increase Europe’s dependence on Putin’s Russia.”

    On May 26, Grenell announced that the United States was preparing additional sanctions to prevent completion of the pipeline. “Germany must stop feeding the beast while at the same time it does not pay enough for NATO,” he said. The German financial newspaper Handelsblatt described the new sanctions as Grenell’s “farewell greeting” (Abschiedsgruß).

    Nazi War Criminals

    In August 2018, Jakiw Palij, a 95-year-old Nazi collaborator who had lived in New York City for decades, was deported to Germany. Despite a court ordering his deportation in 2004, past American administrations were unsuccessful in removing him. Under orders from President Trump, Grenell secured Palij’s deportation to Germany. Palij died six months later.

    On January 10, 2019, Grenell tweeted:

    “Former Nazi prison guard Jakiw Palij has died in Germany. I am so thankful to @realDonaldTrump for making the case a priority. Removing the former Nazi prison guard from the US was something multiple Presidents just talked about – but President Trump made it happen.”

    In an interview, Welt am Sonntag asked Grenell: “You have introduced a very direct way of communicating with your German audience. Are you surprised by the critical reception?” Grenell replied:

    “I’m not surprised at all. I think that the American style has always been different from the European one. And it’s OK to have different styles. I’ve always thought that I would be judged by the political class on the progress I make. For too long, we have ignored some problems.

    “One example of this is over the Nazi prison guard Jakiw Palij, who had been living in the US and who we wanted to be returned to Germany for a very long time. I was told that the Germans simply didn’t want to make this happen, which I didn’t find to be true — after pushing harder on this topic and after raising it at every meeting across all levels of government. So, is my style more pushy? I believe it is. But it also helps to reform our relationship and make it deeper and stronger.”

    In March 2020, a US immigration judge ordered Tennessee resident Friedrich Karl Berger, who served as an armed guard at a Nazi concentration camp during World War II, to be deported to Germany. With Grenell no longer ambassador, it remains unclear if Germany will take Berger back.

    North Korea

    Grenell was instrumental in closing a hostel in Berlin that is owned by the government of North Korea. The Cityhostel Berlin funneled approximately €450,000 ($500,000) a year into the coffers of the regime of Kim Jong Un in violation of UN Security Council sanctions.

    On January 28, 2020, a Berlin Administrative Court ordered the hostel to be shut down. Grenell tweeted:

    “US Embassy Berlin has been hard at work getting this hotel shut down. It seems like a no-brainer to us. North Korea is under UN sanctions and the Germans are the Chair of the UN enforcement committee.”

    Farewell to Germany

    On February 20, 2020, President Trump installed Grenell as the acting director of national intelligence. Grenell was to fulfill his new duties while continuing in his role as ambassador. Almost immediately, German leaders complained that the lack of a full-time ambassador signalled that the United States was downgrading its relationship with Germany.

    Bundestag member Alexander Graf Lambsdorff said that the additional post was an “upgrade” for Grenell, but a “downgrade” for Germany: “Even with the greatest effort, it is not possible to coordinate 17 intelligence agencies while maintaining German-American relations.”

    Johann Wadephul, Bundestag member for the Christian Democrats, added: “Especially in these times, the transatlantic relationship needs a full-time ambassador.”

    A foreign policy spokesman for the Social Democrats, Nils Schmid, said that the fact that Grenell would continue the post of ambassador from Washington was “an expression of a disdain for Germany.” He added: “U.S. President Donald Trump should appoint a successor who does not make one-sided propaganda, but also campaigns for German positions in Washington.”

    On May 24, the German newspaper Die Welt, citing the German Press Agency, reported that Grenell would be stepping down. The announcement generated a range of responses, including:

    • A fellow at the German Marshall Fund, Noah Barkin, tweeted that Germany would breathe a “sigh of relief” at Grenell’s departure. Grenell replied: “You make a big mistake if you think the American pressure is off. You don’t know Americans.”

    • German Bundestag member Andreas Nick, tweeted: “For a generation, each and every US Ambassador I got to know personally – career diplomat or political appointee alike – used to leave his post as a highly respected figure and trusted friend of Germany. Now someone leaves issuing threats as if he were representing a hostile power.”

      Grenell responded: “You always wanted me to stop asking you publicly to pay your NATO obligations and calling for an end to Nord Stream 2. But these are US policies. And I work for the American people.”

    • Bundestag member Alexander Graf Lambsdorff admitted that Grenell will be missed because of his authenticity and closeness to President Trump: “In Ambassador Grenell, you knew what the American government thinks and how it acts.”

    • Julian Röpke, political editor of Bild, Germany’s largest newspaper, tweeted: “With @RichardGrenell, Germany is losing one of the best US Ambassadors to our country ever. Whether it was pressure to stop NordStream2, rethink German-Iranian regime (love) affairs or increase our defense expenditure – he was always on point and acting in the best interest of the United States and Germany. THANKS SO MUCH!”

  • Greece Sends Military To 'Build The Wall' Amid Renewed Turkish 'Migrant Chaos' Threats
    Greece Sends Military To ‘Build The Wall’ Amid Renewed Turkish ‘Migrant Chaos’ Threats

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 01:00

    Early this week we took note of the increasingly tense border dispute between historic longtime enemies Greece and Turkey, specifically concentrated along the Evros River which separates the two. Athens charged that Turkish troops had conducted a land grab at a site where the river level went down, altering its course, or essentially orchestrating a quiet military ‘invasion’ of sovereign Greek territory in progress. 

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    Recent images from border crossing at Evros, via Greek City Times. 

    At the camp there is now a small Turkish flag flying from a tree. Troops have rejected Greek demands to withdraw. It comes weeks after thousands of Syrian refugees failed to break through into Greece,” The Daily Mail has described of the dispute.

    This also comes after months of Turkey’s Erdogan threatening to unleash Syrian refugee and migrant chaos on the EU — which he’s already made good on to a limited degree — resulting in clashes between Greek border patrols and an influx of Middle East migrants. 

    Erdogan’s blackmail targeting Greece and the EU has created soaring tensions between armed forces on each side of the border. In March Greece even began erecting huge concrete barriers at key crossings like the Kastanies crossing, given Turkish guards were letting throngs of asylum seekers pour through their side of the border. Needless to say, the ongoing militarization of what up until now has been a largely diplomatic arena fight presents the potential for a direct major flare-up of a border war.

    Recent news footage out of Greece shows military patrols erecting make-shift border barriers:

    And broadly, Athens significantly increased its naval and military personnel patrolling land and sea.

    And now, as Voice of America observes, the conflict is again getting militarized amid another round of Turkish ‘blackmail’ threats

    Greece is mobilizing forces to boost defenses along its land frontiers with Turkey. The move as Turkey threatens to resume the flow of thousands of migrants to Europe through Greece. The deployment also follows plans by Greece to expand its border fence in the contentious border region. 

    Officials in Athens say they are deploying more than 400 specially trained officers, including riot police, in the northeast region of Evros

    The report notes there are already 1,100 Greek officers in the area placed on “code-red alert” status at a moment some 100,000 mainly Syrian refugees stand ready to push across the border. 

    Essentially Greece is moving to “build the wall” to make any near-term Turkish move to push migrants through a costlier, more difficult feat sure to back-fire — given that amid the COVID-19 pandemic crisis it would again result in thousands being stuck in a ‘no man’s land’ border area, with political pressure and spotlight again coming on Ankara to solve a crisis of its own making. 

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    Carlos Latuff cartoon, 2011, when the proposal was first seriously discussed by lawmakers in Athens.

    It further comes, as VOA emphasizes, just “as lockdown measures are now relaxing across Europe and beyond,” prompting Turkey’s foreign minister to say Tuesday that “migrants and refugees in his country may as well be preparing to make the move anew to Europe — a remark that alarmed officials in Athens.”

    Greek Conservative lawmaker Tassos Hadjivassiliou told VOA the massive wall concept as a physical barrier is “a no-brainer” – explaining further that

    Once this fence goes up,  Turkey will be severely compromised of its ability to push through migrants. And if that happens, then Ankara will have lost its most powerful tool of leverage against Europe… and its chances, therefore, of clinching a new deal with Brussels, plus added financial support will fade.” 

    At the height of the crisis in March, local news crews captured scenes of heavy machinery on the Greek side of a key Evros crossing erecting massive concrete blocks, likely to serve as foundation for a broader, more expansive wall along the porous land border with Turkey.

    The push for a border all is nothing new for Athens, first pursued seriously almost a decade ago despite broader EU criticism, but the latest developments related to Syria and Turkey – and the catastrophic 2015 migrant crisis, much of which Greece had to absorb – means Athens appears to now be fast-tracking such a project, given it’s calling up the military to do so under emergency status. 

  • Escobar Warns India, China Teeter Toward Border Clash As Beijing Flexes Its Muscles
    Escobar Warns India, China Teeter Toward Border Clash As Beijing Flexes Its Muscles

    Tyler Durden

    Fri, 05/29/2020 – 00:05

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Asia Times,

    It would be counter-productive for BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization members India and China to come to blows on account of some extremely remote – albeit strategically important – snowy mountain passes.  

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    But when one looks at the 3,488-kilometer-long Line of Actual Control, which India defines as “unresolved,” that can never be totally ruled out.

    As the Hindustan Times reported:

    India has pushed in high altitude warfare troops with support elements to the eastern Ladakh theater to counter [the] Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s aggressive posture designed to browbeat the government to stop building border infrastructure in the Daulat Beg Oldie sector as it may threaten the Lhasa-Kashgar highway in Aksai Chin.”

    The highway runs from Tibet to southwestern Xinjiang Province, where the Karakoram Highway – the northern part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor – goes from Kashgar to Islamabad. Thence a road heads through Balochistan to Pakistan’s strategic Gwadar port, as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

    “The specialized Indian troops are familiar with the Tibetan Autonomous Region of China and are tuned for operating at rarefied altitudes,” Hindustan Times reports. “The scale of PLA deployment – two brigades’ strength and more – indicates that the move has the sanction of Beijing and [is] not limited to local military commanders.”

    None other than Donald Trump has offered to mediate.

    The current flare-up started building in late April, and led to a series of scuffles in early May, described as “aggressive behavior on both sides,” complete with fistfights and stone throwing. The Indian version is that Chinese troops crossed the Line of Actual Control (LAC), with vehicles and equipment, to block road construction by India.

    The key area is around a spectacular 135 kilometer-long, 5-7 kilometer-wide lake, Pangong Tso. It’s in Ladakh, which is a de facto extension of the Tibetan plateau. One third is held by India and two thirds by China.

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    Pangong Lake, on the border between India and China. Photo: AFP / Antoine Boureau / Biosphoto

    Mountain folds around the lake are called “fingers.” The Indians say Chinese troops are close to Finger Two – and blocking their movements. India claims territorial rights up to Finger 8, but its de facto holding extends only to Finger 4.

    New Delhi has been steadily expanding infrastructure development – and also troop deployments – in Ladakh for nearly a decade. Units now spend longer periods deployed along the LAC than the six months that used to be the standard rotation.

    These are called loop battalions: They do a back and forth with the Siachen glacier – which was the theatre of a localized India-Pakistan mini-war in 1999 that I followed closely.

    The Indians maintain there are no fewer than 23 “disputed and sensitive” areas along the LAC, with at least 300 “transgressions” by People’s Liberation Army troops every year.

    Crossing the line

    The Indians are now particularly focused on the situation in the Galwan valley in Ladakh, which they maintain was breached to a distance of 3 to 4 km by PLA troops now in the process of digging defenses.   

    Diplomatically, it’s all pretty hazy. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Indian troops of “crossing the line” in both Ladakh and Sikkim, as well as “attempting to unilaterally change the status of border control.”  

    The Indian Foreign Ministry has preferred to maintain that “established mechanisms” should prevail in the end, justifying its relative silence with the explanation that quiet diplomacy between military commanders and officials must take precedence.

    That’s in stark contrast with what Indian sources on the ground are stressing: face-off between troops in at least three points in Ladakh and Sikkim; too many Chinese troops at LAC areas patrolled by India; and blocking of Indian patrols in finger areas on the Pangong Tso.

    Interestingly, Indian defense sources deny there’s a Chinese troop buildup across the middle sector of the LAC, in Uttarakhand; they see what would qualify as routine “local movements.

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    India-China border issues are usually settled on the border in meetings between local commanders and officials. Photo: AFP / Indian Defense Ministry / HO

    It’s significant that a former Northern Army commander told The Hindu, “Normally stand-offs happen in a local area, but are resolved at the local level.” That pretty much sums up the whole state of affairs along the India-China border and also the India-Pakistan border.  

    Yet now, added the commander, there seems to be a “higher level in China” in terms of planning, so the skirmishes should be handled diplomatically. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reviewing the current LAC situation.  

    Beijing has been mostly quiet about it. Yet the Global Times seems to be distilling the predominant Chinese narrative: India’s poor “are facing an increasingly severe threat of famine.

    “Against such a backdrop, it is conceivable that hyping border tensions at this juncture will flare up nationalist sentiment and increase domestic hostility toward Chinese capital, putting unnecessary pressure on bilateral trade and dealing a further blow to the Indian economy already plagued by downturn woes.”

    Global Times insists China “clearly has no intention of escalating the border disputes with India,” and prefers to stress the “overall improvement” of their “bilateral economic and trade ties.”  

    The usual divide-and-rule suspects, for their part, prefer to speculate on the possibility of an India-China LAC mini-war. That’s not likely to happen.

    Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, billed as special representatives of India and China, met face to face for the last time in December 2019, discussing an “early settlement of the boundary question.” It looks like they will soon have to meet again. 

  • Visualizing The COVID-19 Impact On App Popularity
    Visualizing The COVID-19 Impact On App Popularity

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 23:45

    Pandemic-induced social isolation has altered the relationship consumers have with technology.

    With the physical world now slowly receding, Visual Capitalist’s Katie Jones notes that consumers are suddenly more reliant on apps for communication, shopping, staying healthy, and entertainment.

    Today’s graphic pulls data from a new report by MoEngage and Apptopia, and it plots the winners and losers of the pandemic from the app world in North America.

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    Embracing the App Economy with Open Arms

    Consumers are looking for different ways to manage their lives while in lockdown, and in some cases, apps could provide the perfect solution.

    In fact, people spent 20% more time using apps in the first quarter of 2020 compared to 2019. During that time, consumers also spent over $23 billion in app stores—the largest spend per quarter recorded to date.

    While consumers across the globe lean on apps to support them in times of crisis, what exactly are consumers in North America using?

    Climbing to the Top

    Given the sheer volume of people working remotely, it’s no surprise to see video chat and online conference apps experiencing explosive growth. In North America, these apps witnessed an astronomical 627% increase in downloads, and a 121% increase in daily active users (DAUs).

    Video conferencing app Zoom expanded its worldwide user base by 300% in just under a month. Upwards of 500 participants can attend a meeting at any one time, hence why it has become a popular option for virtual conferences, festivals and even religious sermons. As we adapt to life indoors, the Zoom boom shows no signs of slowing, even despite the app’s recent data privacy and security scandal.

    Slowing to a Standstill

    Unfortunately, indoor living is not conducive to globetrotting. As travel and hospitality app downloads in North America decline by 12%, this is the harsh reality that the industry needs to come to terms with for the foreseeable future.

    Interestingly, airlines in the U.S. did not see a reduction in app downloads until early March, which may be attributed to the later timing of the COVID-19 shutdowns as in comparison to other countries around the world.

    In the short-term rentals space, Airbnb has experienced a drastic decline in bookings, and is adopting new cleaning protocols in an attempt to appease both hosts and guests. The tech company has since lowered its internal evaluation, from $31 billion to $26 billion, which could disrupt the company’s plan to go public in 2020.

    Emerging Victorious

    Because the largest social media networks already boast a significantly large audience, new downloads is not necessarily a metric that could make or break this cohort. Instead, DAUs are a much better indicator of success, and from what the report suggests, people have become more devoted to these platforms.

    For U.S. adults, social media usage jumped from 20% of total mobile app usage in the early part of the year, to 25% in mid-March. In fact, between January and March, daily active users on Instagram and Facebook rose to 127 million and 195 million, respectively.

    Measuring the Global Impact

    When we look at the popularity of apps across different parts of the world, some interesting observations appear. First of all, healthcare apps in South East Asia are categorized as emerging—meaning they show promise, but have minimal active users.

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    Although DAUs of healthcare apps in South East Asia are declining, fascinatingly, there has been a 110% increase in spend on these apps during the outbreak. The report suggests that this could be attributed to the user base becoming more loyal as a result of trust-building advertising campaigns in this space.

    Real estate is a sector seeing a simultaneous increase and decrease in users worldwide. In Middle-East Asia for instance, these apps are exploding in popularity, but in other parts of the world they are experiencing a slowdown. This could be due to restrictions in certain parts of the world slowly starting to lift.

    An Unsung Hero

    Technology is becoming an increasingly divisive topic. Data security scandals, the spread of false information, and its impact on mental health are just some of the reasons why technology’s role in society regularly comes into question.

    However, it has allowed us to remain connected in a time of crisis, and has also been pivotal in facilitating the spread of reliable information during lockdown.

    If anything, the pandemic has shown us how vulnerable we are without technology—and how instrumental apps are in keeping us busy, informed, and sane.

  • From 9/11 To COVID-19, It's Been A Perpetual State Of Emergency
    From 9/11 To COVID-19, It’s Been A Perpetual State Of Emergency

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 23:25

    Authored by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

    “The fundamental political question is why do people obey a government. The answer is that they tend to enslave themselves, to let themselves be governed by tyrants. Freedom from servitude comes not from violent action, but from the refusal to serve. Tyrants fall when the people withdraw their support.”—Étienne De La Boétie, The Politics Of Obedience

    Don’t pity this year’s crop of graduates because this COVID-19 pandemic caused them to miss out on the antics of their senior year and the pomp and circumstance of graduation… Pity them because they have spent their entire lives in a state of emergency.

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    They were born in the wake of the 9/11 attacks; raised without any expectation of privacy in a technologically-driven, mass surveillance state; educated in schools that teach conformity and compliance; saddled with a debt-ridden economy on the brink of implosion; made vulnerable by the blowback from a military empire constantly waging war against shadowy enemies; policed by government agents armed to the teeth ready and able to lock down the country at a moment’s notice; and forced to march in lockstep with a government that no longer exists to serve the people but which demands they be obedient slaves or suffer the consequences.

    It’s a dismal start to life, isn’t it?

    Unfortunately, we who should have known better failed to maintain our freedoms or provide our young people with the tools necessary to survive, let alone succeed, in the impersonal jungle that is modern America.

    We brought them into homes fractured by divorce, distracted by mindless entertainment, and obsessed with the pursuit of materialism. We institutionalized them in daycares and afterschool programs, substituting time with teachers and childcare workers for parental involvement. We turned them into test-takers instead of thinkers and automatons instead of activists.

    We allowed them to languish in schools which not only look like prisons but function like prisons, as well—where conformity is the rule and freedom is the exception. We made them easy prey for our corporate overlords, while instilling in them the values of a celebrity-obsessed, technology-driven culture devoid of any true spirituality. And we taught them to believe that the pursuit of their own personal happiness trumped all other virtues, including any empathy whatsoever for their fellow human beings

    No, we haven’t done this generation any favors.

    Given the current political climate and nationwide lockdown, things could only get worse.

    For those coming of age today (and for the rest of us who are muddling along through this dystopian nightmare), here are a few bits of advice that will hopefully help as we navigate the perils ahead.

    Be an individual. For all of its claims to champion the individual, American culture advocates a stark conformity which, as John F. Kennedy warned, is “the jailer of freedom, and the enemy of growth.” Worry less about fitting in with the rest of the world and instead, as Henry David Thoreau urged, become “a Columbus to whole new continents and worlds within you, opening new channels, not of trade, but of thought.”

    Learn your rights. We’re losing our freedoms for one simple reason: most of us don’t know anything about our freedoms. At a minimum, anyone who has graduated from high school, let alone college, should know the Bill of Rights backwards and forwards. However, the average young person, let alone citizen, has very little knowledge of their rights for the simple reason that the schools no longer teach them. So grab a copy of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, and study them at home. And when the time comes, stand up for your rights before it’s too late.

    Speak truth to power. Don’t be naive about those in positions of authority. As James Madison, who wrote our Bill of Rights, observed, “All men having power ought to be distrusted.” We must learn the lessons of history. People in power, more often than not, abuse that power. To maintain our freedoms, this will mean challenging government officials whenever they exceed the bounds of their office.

    Resist all things that numb you. Don’t measure your worth by what you own or earn. Likewise, don’t become mindless consumers unaware of the world around you. Resist all things that numb you, put you to sleep or help you “cope” with so-called reality. Those who establish the rules and laws that govern society’s actions desire compliant subjects. However, as George Orwell warned, “Until they become conscious, they will never rebel, and until after they rebelled, they cannot become conscious.” It is these conscious individuals who change the world for the better.

    Don’t let technology turn you into zombies. Technology anesthetizes us to the all-too-real tragedies that surround us. Techno-gadgets are merely distractions from what’s really going on in America and around the world. As a result, we’ve begun mimicking the inhuman technology that surrounds us and have lost our humanity. We’ve become sleepwalkers. If you’re going to make a difference in the world, you’re going to have to pull the earbuds out, turn off the cell phones and spend much less time viewing screens.

    Help others. We all have a calling in life. And I believe it boils down to one thing: You are here on this planet to help other people. In fact, none of us can exist very long without help from others. If we’re going to see any positive change for freedom, then we must change our view of what it means to be human and regain a sense of what it means to love and help one another. That will mean gaining the courage to stand up for the oppressed.

    Refuse to remain silent in the face of evil. Throughout history, individuals or groups of individuals have risen up to challenge the injustices of their age. Nazi Germany had its Dietrich Bonhoeffer. The gulags of the Soviet Union were challenged by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn. America had its color-coded system of racial segregation and warmongering called out for what it was, blatant discrimination and profiteering, by Martin Luther King Jr. And then there was Jesus Christ, an itinerant preacher and revolutionary activist, who not only died challenging the police state of his day—namely, the Roman Empire—but provided a blueprint for civil disobedience that would be followed by those, religious and otherwise, who came after him. What we lack today and so desperately need are those with moral courage who will risk their freedoms and lives in order to speak out against evil in its many forms.

    Cultivate spirituality, reject materialism and put people first. When the things that matter most have been subordinated to materialism, we have lost our moral compass. We must change our values to reflect something more meaningful than technology, materialism and politics. Standing at the pulpit of the Riverside Church in New York City in April 1967, Martin Luther King Jr. urged his listeners:

    [W]e as a nation must undergo a radical revolution of values. We must rapidly begin the shift from a “thing-oriented” society to a “person-oriented” society. When machines and computers, profit motive and property rights are considered more important than people, the giant triplets of racism, materialism, and militarism are incapable of being conquered.

    Pitch in and do your part to make the world a better place. Don’t rely on someone else to do the heavy lifting for you. Don’t wait around for someone else to fix what ails you, your community or nation. As Mahatma Gandhi urged: “Be the change you wish to see in the world.”

    Stop waiting for political saviors to fix what is wrong with this country. Stop waiting for some political savior to swoop in and fix all that’s wrong with this country. Stop allowing yourselves to be drawn into divisive party politics. Stop thinking of yourselves as members of a particular political party, as opposed to citizens of the United States. Most of all, stop looking away from the injustices and cruelties and endless acts of tyranny that have become hallmarks of American police state. Be vigilant and do your part to recalibrate the balance of power in favor of “we the people.”

    Say no to war. Addressing the graduates at Binghampton Central High School in 1968, at a time when the country was waging war “on different fields, on different levels, and with different weapons,” Twilight Zone creator Rod Serling declared:

    Too many wars are fought almost as if by rote. Too many wars are fought out of sloganry, out of battle hymns, out of aged, musty appeals to patriotism that went out with knighthood and moats. Love your country because it is eminently worthy of your affection. Respect it because it deserves your respect. Be loyal to it because it cannot survive without your loyalty. But do not accept the shedding of blood as a natural function or a prescribed way of history—even if history points this up by its repetition. That men die for causes does not necessarily sanctify that cause. And that men are maimed and torn to pieces every fifteen and twenty years does not immortalize or deify the act of war… find another means that does not come with the killing of your fellow-man.

    Finally, prepare yourselves for what lies ahead. The demons of our age—some of whom disguise themselves as politicians—delight in fomenting violence, sowing distrust and prejudice, and persuading the public to support tyranny disguised as patriotism. Overcoming the evils of our age will require more than intellect and activism. It will require decency, morality, goodness, truth and toughness. As Serling concluded in his remarks to the graduating class of 1968:

    Toughness is the singular quality most required of you… we have left you a world far more botched than the one that was left to us… Part of your challenge is to seek out truth, to come up with a point of view not dictated to you by anyone, be he a congressman, even a minister… Are you tough enough to take the divisiveness of this land of ours, the fact that everything is polarized, black and white, this or that, absolutely right or absolutely wrong. This is one of the challenges. Be prepared to seek out the middle ground … that wondrous and very difficult-to-find Valhalla where man can look to both sides and see the errant truths that exist on both sides. If you must swing left or you must swing right—respect the other side. Honor the motives that come from the other side. Argue, debate, rebut—but don’t close those wondrous minds of yours to opposition. In their eyes, you’re the opposition. And ultimately … ultimately—you end divisiveness by compromise. And so long as men walk and breathe—there must be compromise…

    Are you tough enough to face one of the uglier stains upon the fabric of our democracy—prejudice? It’s the basic root of most evil. It’s a part of the sickness of man. And it’s a part of man’s admission, his constant sick admission, that to exist he must find a scapegoat. To explain away his own deficiencies—he must try to find someone who he believes more deficient… Make your judgment of your fellow-man on what he says and what he believes and the way he acts. Be tough enough, please, to live with prejudice and give battle to it. It warps, it poisons, it distorts and it is self-destructive. It has fallout worse than a bomb … and worst of all it cheapens and demeans anyone who permits himself the luxury of hating.”

    The only way we’ll ever achieve change in this country is for people to finally say “enough is enough” and fight for the things that truly matter. 

    It doesn’t matter how old you are or what your political ideology is: wake up, stand up, speak up, and make your citizenship count for something more than just voting.

    Pandemic or not, don’t allow your freedoms to be curtailed and your voice to be muzzled.

    It’s our civic duty to make the government hear us—and heed us—using every nonviolent means available to us: picket, protest, march, boycott, speak up, sound off and reclaim control over the narrative about what is really going on in this country.

    Mind you, the government doesn’t want to hear us. It doesn’t even want us to speak. In fact, as I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, the government has done a diabolically good job of establishing roadblocks to prevent us from exercising our First Amendment right to speech and assembly and protest.

    Still we must persist.

    So get active, get outraged, and get going: there’s work to be done.

  • Volkswagen Goes On Billion Dollar EV Investment Spree In China To Compete Directly With Tesla
    Volkswagen Goes On Billion Dollar EV Investment Spree In China To Compete Directly With Tesla

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 23:05

    “Buy when there’s blood in the streets…”

    This is likely the adage Volkswagen had in mind during the collapse of China’s car market over the last quarter, as a result of both an auto market mired in pre-virus recession, and the effects of the pandemic and its ensuing lockdowns. 

    Volkswagen, eager to gain ground on Tesla in the EV space globally, went on an acquisition/investment spree, according to Reuters. The company is now sealing “its largest investments deals with Chinese EV firms”. 

    Volkswagen will buy 50% of Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Holding, the parent of EV partner JAC Motors for $491 million and will become the largest shareholder of EV battery maker Guoxuan High-tech Co Ltd. 

    Anhui Jianghuai is fully state owned and has a 25.23% stake in JAC, which has a market value of $1.84 billion. Volkswagen plans to deploy fresh capital with the JV in hopes of building capacity to manufacture with its MEB platform – the company’s architecture for producing EVs efficiently. JAC shares were limit up on the news on Wednesday. 

    VW will own 27% of Guoxuan via a private placement. The company is valued at $4.3 billion, making the stake worth about $1.16 billion.

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    The deals make it clear that VW is trying to vertically integrate themselves in order to maintain their title of largest foreign automaker in China, despite Tesla’s efforts. Last year, Tesla became the first foreign automaker to wholly own a car plant in China. 

    The Chinese government had previously targeted 25% of all car sales to be EV sales by 2025. As we have reported, that goal has been brushed aside momentarily as the Chinese government deals with the consequences of its entire economy shutting down as a result of the coronavirus. The Chinese Passenger Vehicle Association has now estimated that it will not be able to meet its 25% goal in the original timeframe. 

    VW’s investments make it the latest automaker to increase its ownership in China. 

    The company said in a statement: “Volkswagen consistently searches for ways to strengthen and deepen our relationships with local partners. In this regard we will explore possible options together with all stakeholders to secure long-term success.”

    Recall, just about a week ago, we highlighted the Volkswagen ID 3, the company’s $33,000 entry into the EV market that is expected to compete directly with Tesla. 

  • What Crypto Is (And Isn't)
    What Crypto Is (And Isn’t)

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 22:45

    Authored by Omid Malekan via Medium.com,

    The first thing to note about the slide below, which comes from a recent Goldman Sachs presentation that got some crypto enthusiasts in a tizzy, is that all of the listed characteristics of Bitcoin are accurate.

    The second thing to note is that it’s just one slide inside a 45 page presentation that’s mostly about gold, and why people shouldn’t invest in either.

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    If we go back a few years and tell most crypto enthusiasts that come 2020, a major Wall Street outfit would be discussing 10 year old Bitcoin in the same conversation as antediluvian gold, they’d be ecstatic. So most of the complaints on crypto twitter are somewhat misplaced, and betray the inferiority complex that still defines our young industry. Anyone convinced that crypto will go up substantially should celebrate a presentation like this. It gives them something to joke about when they cash out their millions and call Goldman Sachs to open up a private bank account.

    That said, I do have a few bones to pick here, starting with the title of the slide.

    There is something preposterous about the conclusion that “XYZ is not an asset class.” It’s sort of like saying that a style of painting is not art, or that a certain person is not cool. Who gets to decide such things? Are inverse volatility ETFs prone to the occasional blow up an asset class? How about futures tied to a commodity that may trade deep into negative territory?

    Better yet, what about bonds with negative interest rates? The first bullet of the above slide calls out crypto because it “doesn’t generate cash flow like bonds.” Thanks to extreme central bank intervention, neither do an ever growing list of, well, bonds. As with Bitcoin, German Bunds currently “Do Not Generate Cash Flow.” Does that mean European sovereign debt is no longer an asset class?

    There are few things in life that I hate more than semantic arguments. They are a waste of my time and never teach me anything. They are also a sign of a lesser mind, a favorite tool of those who can’t engage in a substantive debate and instead distract with pointless arguments over what the meaning of the word is is.

    I have no problem with the Consumer and Investment Management division of an investment bank telling its clients not to invest in crypto. It’s probably sage advice given the risk profile and return expectations of their audience. But the reasons given betray a lack of sophistication. For example, consider the following critique found later in the same presentation:

    Though individual cryptocurrencies have limited supplies, cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource. For example, three of the largest six cryptocurrencies are forks — i.e., nearly identical clones — of Bitcoin (Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Bitcoin SV).

    True enough – and moronic.

    Akin to saying

    “though gold itself has limited supplies, metals as a whole are not scarce. For example, aluminum and iron are the third and fourth most abundant elements in the earth’s crust.”

    Or better yet:

    “though individual social media networks enjoy certain network effects, anyone can start a new social media service by writing a few lines of code. For example, my cousin Joey recently made a knockoff of Instagram called Joeygram

    Bitcoin’s hash rate – the total amount of computing power dedicated to mining – is currently over 30x that of Bitcoin Cash and 50x that of Bitcoin SV. Hash rate is synonymous with security, and security is fundamental to the coin’s scarcity – one reason why Cash and SV both trade at a fraction of the dollar value of Bitcoin (and why cousin’ Joe’s newest venture, Bitcoin Joey, is totally worthless).

    There is more cherry picked foolishness within the deck that I won’t spend too much time on, like the “parabolic price appreciation indicates bubble” argument (Zoom stock is up over one million percent since its seed funding round) and the “used in illicit activity” canard (more crime gets committed using dollars in a single day than crypto in a full year).

    The biggest takeaway here is the fact that crypto was singled out as something not to invest in, and that this conclusion was communicated by declaring what Bitcoin isn’t. I come across this sort of double-negative analysis in my work within academia and on Wall Street all of the time. The professors say Bitcoin is not money and the bankers announce that crypto is not an asset class. Both remind me of the great Marshall McLuhan, and the observation that the medium is the message.

    More telling than what either group believes is how they go about communicating it. It tells us that all of these people, the elites of the old guard, suffer from their own inferiority complex. Some part of them understands that the world is about to change, and that once it does, those who cannot grapple with its unique attributes — things like hash rates, algorithmic scarcity, and the like — will not be as important as they are today. So they perseverate on what the technology isn’t and how the future can’t be.

    What they don’t realize is that making something a taboo only accelerates the pace of adoption. There was a time when rap wasn’t music and playing video games wasn’t a career, and it wasn’t that long ago. I don’t know what happened to the experts who said those things, but doubt anyone cares what they have to say about hip-hop or e-sports today.

  • "Perfect Storm" Of Auto Thefts Sweeps US During COVID Lockdowns
    “Perfect Storm” Of Auto Thefts Sweeps US During COVID Lockdowns

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 22:25

    The link between high unemployment and crime has been realized in a new report that indicates police departments across the country have sounded the alarm on surging auto thefts. 

    To refresh everyone’s memory, over 38.6 million people have filed for unemployment over a nine-week period, the number of job loss is unprecedented and considered depressionary.

    If you take a stroll down main street, it’s littered with commerical “for lease” signs and food banks, as tens of millions of people have fallen into instant poverty. 

    Before we dish out the shocking crime statistics – the Denver Police Department (DPD) recently said it would be studying crime trends from the last recession to better forecast what could happen during the current economic crash. 

    “We’re looking at the ebbs and flows that took place to try and anticipate where those challenges would come,” said DPD Chief Paul Pazen. “And more importantly, what are you doing about it?” 

    Drilling down to specific types of crime, he said spikes in “aggravated assault,” “auto theft,” and “robberies” were seen in the last recession.

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    A new Associated Press report reveals police data from major cities show auto thefts are surging across the country. 

    The number of pilfered vehicles soared by a whopping 63% in New York City from January 1 through mid-May, compared with the same period last year. In Los Angeles, the number was 17% during the same period. Salt Lake City saw a 22% rise in car thefts. 

    “And many other law enforcement agencies around the U.S. are reporting an increase in stolen cars and vehicle burglaries, even as violent crime has dropped dramatically nationwide in the coronavirus pandemic,” AP reported. 

    In Austin, Texas, auto thefts in April soared 50% over the last year. Austin police Sgt. Chris Vetrano said the virus had created a “perfect storm.” 

    AP outlined the elements of that storm:

    “Drivers are at home and not using or checking their cars regularly. School’s out, so teenagers are trying their luck. Criminals are out of work and have more time on their hands or need fast money to support a drug habit.” 

    What should be shocking too many is that Baltimore City’s vehicle thefts from autos actually plunged 24% and stolen vehicles dropped 19% over the period when compared to last year (by the way, the numbers from Baltimore are not believable — consider the city is an absolute shithole). 

    So there you have it, auto thefts surge across the country as coronavirus lockdowns trigger an economic depression with tens of millions of people unemployed. As we’ve outlined in the past, the recovery could take several years, which all suggests, thefts are likely to get worse.

    Is this why Americans panic hoarded 9mm ammo earlier this year? 

  • Thursday Humor: Protestors Criticized For Looting Businesses Without Forming Private Equity Firm First
    Thursday Humor: Protestors Criticized For Looting Businesses Without Forming Private Equity Firm First

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 22:05

    Fact… or Fiction?

    Calling for a more measured way to express opposition to police brutality, critics slammed demonstrators Thursday for recklessly looting businesses without forming a private equity firm first.

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    “Look, we all have the right to protest, but that doesn’t mean you can just rush in and destroy any business without gathering a group of clandestine investors to purchase it at a severely reduced price and slowly bleed it to death,” said Facebook commenter Amy Mulrain, echoing the sentiments of detractors nationwide who blasted the demonstrators for not hiring a consultant group to take stock of a struggling company’s assets before plundering.

    I understand that people are angry, but they shouldn’t just endanger businesses without even a thought to enriching themselves through leveraged buyouts and across-the-board terminations.

    It’s disgusting to put workers at risk by looting. You do it by chipping away at their health benefits and eventually laying them off. There’s a right way and wrong way to do this.

    At press time, critics recommended that protestors hold law enforcement accountable by simply purchasing the Minneapolis police department from taxpayers.

    Source: The Onion

  • Kolanovic "Dials Down" Market Optimism; Warns Of Scenario With "Drastically Lower" Equity Prices
    Kolanovic “Dials Down” Market Optimism; Warns Of Scenario With “Drastically Lower” Equity Prices

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 21:45

    One week ago, when JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic laid out a very controversial – to those in the anti-Trump camp – position, that the lockdowns resulting from the coronavirus may have caused more deaths than covid-19 itself, it sparked outrage among liberal circles, and nowhere more so than on CNBC where the JPM quant was literally yelled at by Andrew Ross Sorkin (the former NYT writer must be going through a very stressful period judging by his recent outbursts) for daring to suggest that ending the economy-crippling lockdown – with a presidential election just 6 months away – is the best option. 

    What is ironic is that in that same note, Kolanovic took a veiled shot at Trump supporters and/or conservatives who actually share Kolanovic’s view, when he wrote that “on the other side of the political spectrum, demagogues and radicals across the world will be tempted to use COVID-19 to blame immigrants, people of different race, or use the pandemic as a pretext to intensify geopolitical tensions.” How amusing then, that none other than one of the young and respected acolytes of liberal media, Andrew Ross Sorkin, ended up screaming at Kolanovic (which judging by the CNBC segment, the JPM quant certainly failed to predict, but then again his crystal ball in the past years has been cloudy on more than one occasion).

    In any case, Kolanovic – who as a reminder expects the S&P to hit new all time highs in 2021 – left off his otherwise optimistic note warning cautioning about the emerging political risks, i.e., the politicization of the COVID-19 epidemic, and writing that “blaming the pandemic on an ethnic group or country can provide a convenient excuse for various failings at home, or may provide pretext to push a geopolitical or protectionist agenda. This is perhaps even more dangerous than using the pandemic to further domestic political outcomes.

    Well, fast forward to today, when in yet another note, the JPM quant, perhaps traumtized by his CNBC experience, is decidedly more bearish, and instead of focusing on the reopening of the economy as the base case for his traditionally cheerful outlook, Kolanovic says that he is “dialing down our  positive outlook on equities” for two reasons: concerns there won’t be a full reopening of the economy for political reasons, with the same reasons resulting in “geopolitical tensions that could cripple the recovery of global trade.”

    The key excerpt from his note is below:

    In our last note we highlighted emerging political risks, namely politicization of the COVID-19 epidemic. This could on one side lead to paralysis and delays in reopening the US economy and on the other side to geopolitical tensions that could cripple the recovery of global trade. Reopening the US economy is a complex process that is influenced not just by the virus but also by messages sent by the media and politicians.

    We wonder how much of this criticism is geared at Trump and how much at Sorkin.

    These can have an impact on consumer behavior. Reopening only half of the economy will not be sufficient to support our current forecast for all-time highs in 2021. On the other side, a complete breakdown of supply chains and international trade, primarily between the two largest economies (US and China), would justify equities trading drastically lower. As the market staged a substantial rally (nearly ~40%) since our out-of consensus bullish call, we are dialing down our positive outlook on equities and would like to see these political risks show signs of normalization.

    Ultimately, Kolanovic says that he believes the “abovementioned politicizations of COVID-19 will backfire and will be abandoned, but some self-inflicted damage could perhaps happen first” and while the JPM quant is probably right, but it won’t happen before the elections, and should Trump win the re-election on a anti-China platform, it won’t happen after either.

    d

     

    d

  • Paul Craig Roberts Asks "Where Did My World Go?"
    Paul Craig Roberts Asks “Where Did My World Go?”

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 21:25

    Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,

    Change Is Not Always Progress

    I remember when there was no tamper-proof and child-proof packaging.  That was before multiculturalism and Identity Politics when we could still trust one another and parents accepted responsibility for their children without fobbing it off on a company with a liability claim.  

    I remember also when there were no state income and sales taxes.  States were able to meet their responsibilities without them.

    A postage stamp cost one cent. A middle class house was $11,000 and an upper middle class house went fot $20,000.  One million dollars was a large fortune. There were no billionaires.

    The air museum on the naval base in Pensacola, Florida, has a street reconstructed from the 1940s. The restaurant’s memu offers a complete evening meal for 69 cents.

    I was thinking about that as I reviewed a recent Publix supermarket bill:  a loaf of bread $3.89, a dozen organic eggs $4.95, a package of 6 hot dogs $5.49, 8 small tomatos $5.19, a package of baby spinach $4.19, a half gallon of milk $4.59, a package of two paper towel rolls $5.99.  When I was 5 or 6 years old, my mother would send me to the bakery with a dime for a loaf of bread or to the market with 11 cents for a quart of milk. The Saturday afternoon double-feature at the movie house was 10 cents.  A case of Coca-Colas (24 bottles) was one dollar. Ten cents would get you a Pepsi Cola and a Moon Pie, lunch for construction crews. Kids would look for discarded Pepsi Cola bottles on construction sites. In those days there was a two cent deposit on soft drink bottles. One bottle was worth 4 pieces of Double Bubble gum.  Five bottles paid for the Saturday double-feature.

    Dimes, quarters, and half dollars were silver, and there were silver dollars. The nickle (five cent coin) was nickle, and the penny was copper. FDR took gold away in 1933. The silver coins disappeared in 1965.  Our last commodity money, the copper penny, met its demise in 1983.  Now they are talking about getting rid of the penny altogether. 

    Many of us grew up with paper routes for spending money.  Other than a paper route, my first employment was the high school summer when I worked the first shift in a cotton mill for $1 an hour.  And work it was.  After the withholding tax my takehome pay for the 40 hour week was $33.

    When I was five years old I could walk safely one mile to school and home by myself without my parents being arrested by Child Protective Services for child neglect and endangerment.

    In school we could draw pictures of fighter planes, warships, and guns without being regarded as a danger to our classmates and sent for psychiatric evaluation.  Fights were just a part of growing up. The police weren’t called, and we weren’t handcuffed and carted off to jail. Today kids who play cops and robbers or cowboys and Indians and point fingers at one another as pretend guns end up in police custody. A fight means an assault charge and possibly a felony record.  

    The kind of freedom I had as a child no longer exists except in remote rural areas. When I think about this I wonder if kids today even notice.  They live in the virtual world of the video screen and do not know the real world.  Catching crawfish in the creek while watching out for cottonmouth moccasins, playing capture the flag over acres of expanse without getting a bad case of poison ivy, organizing a neighbohood ball game, damning up a creek and making a swimming hole. Today these are unknown pleasures.

    When it rained we read books. I remember reading Robert Heinlein’s Puppet Masters when I was 12 years old. Do 12 year olds read books today?  Can science fiction compete with video games?

    I remember when a deal rested on a handshake.  Today lawyers tell me even contracts are unenforceable. 

    We were taught to behave properly so that “you can look yourself in the mirror.”  Today you can’t look yourself in the mirror unless you have upstaged or ripped off someone.  Character is a thing of the past, as are habits that are today regarded as inappropriate.  An older person hoping to get a point across to a younger one would put his or her hand on the younger person’s arm or thigh for attention purposes.  Do this today and you get a sexual charge. Both of my grandmothers would probably be locked up as sexual offenders.

    Being a tattle-tale was an undesirable and discouraged trait. Today we are encouraged to be tattle-tales.  You will hear the encouragement several dozen times while awaiting your flight to be called.  Neighbors on quiet cul-de-sacs will call Child Protective Services to report one another’s unsupervised children at play.  

    I remember when black Americans said they just wanted to be treated like everyone else.  That was before racial set-asides in federal government contracts that only black-owned firms can bid on. Once you have special privileges, you don’t want to be like everyone else.  Blacks say being white is a privilege.  If so, it wasn’t enough privilege for Celeste Bennett’s firm Ultima.  Her white privilege and her gender privilege were trumped by black set-aside privilege.

    If my parents and grandparents were to be resurrected, they would require a year’s training before it would be safe for them to go about with being arrested.  They would have to be educated out of their customary behavior patterns and taught the words and phrases that are today impermissable.  They would have trouble comprehending that there are no-go areas in cities.  Reading Diana Johnstone’s masterful book, Circle in the Darkness, I remembered the safety of my own youthful years as I read that as a 12 year old she could walk alone around the wharfs of southwest Washington, D.C., in the 1940s unmolested.

    I received my new homeowners policy yesterday.  It arrived with 89 pages of warnings, definitions, and liability explanations.  One can’t really tell if one is insured or not.  

    I have a 54-year old Jaguar that I have had for 47 years. The owner’s manual tells how to operate and repair the car. A friend showed me the owner’s manual on his 21-year old Porsche. It has more pages of warnings to protect the manufacturer from liability claims than the Jaguar manual has pages of instruction. Today any tool or gadget you buy has more pages of warnings than instruction.

    My AARP Medicare supplement insurance policy arrived explaining my meager and expensive covering.  It came with a notice letting me know that language assistance services are available for the policy in Spanish, Vietnamese, Tagalog, Russian, Arabic, Haitian Creole, French, Polish, Portuguese, Italian, German, Japanese,  Hmong, Llocano, Somali, Greek, Gujarati, and that there is no discrimination because of sex, age, race, color, disability or national origin. The notice provides access to a Civil Rights Coordinator in the event I feel discriminated against.  AARP even provides a number to call for help with filing a discrimination complaint.

    I do feel discriminated against. But it is not a covered discrimination. I feel like my country has been stolen or that I have been kidnapped and placed in some foreign unknown place that I don’t recognize as home.  

    I feel the same when I get fundraising appeals from Georgia Tech and Oxford University. Georgia Tech was an all male school consisting primarily of in-state Georgia boys.  The Oxford colleges were segregated according to gender—male and female—and the vast majority of the members were British.  Today all the colleges except the women’s are gender integrated. White males seldom appear in the photos in the fundraising materials that arrive from Oxford and Georgia Tech.  I see lots of women and racial diversity and wonder what university it is.  An improvement or not, they are not the schools of which I have memories.  The schools I knew have simply been taken away.  Something else is there now.

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    Perhaps it has always been true, but today if you live very long you outlive your world. As your friends die off, no one remembers it correctly but you as you watch your world disappear in misrepresentations to serve present day agendas.

  • Will Twitter "Fact-Check" This Tweet From Trump?
    Will Twitter “Fact-Check” This Tweet From Trump?

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 21:09

    A few short hours after President Trump unveiled his Executive Order on Social Media censorship and bias, Twitter’s Public Policy Group responded…

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    And just minutes after Twitter dropped that response, President Trump tweeted what can only be described as a ‘test‘ for the newfound freedom of speech lovers at Jack Dorsey’s firm:

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    Basically echoing the exact words that resulted in the social media company’s ‘fact check’ the last time.

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    So the question is – will they flag his post this time?

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    Perhaps the executives at Twitter read this post and discovered that Trump is right after all.

  • COVID-Coordinators, Restroom-Limits, And Plexiglass-Dividers: How The Largest Hedge Funds Are Preparing To Re-Open
    COVID-Coordinators, Restroom-Limits, And Plexiglass-Dividers: How The Largest Hedge Funds Are Preparing To Re-Open

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 21:05

    Hedge funds are going to extreme lengths to try and protect employees returning to work in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. 

    Millennium Management is adhering to a lengthy 50 point checklist for re-opening its offices that includes items like air filtration and an application process for staff who want to return to the office, according to Bloomberg. Like their rivals, their plans also include infrared thermometers and plexiglass dividers for between desks. 

    Staff will be scanned for fever upon walking to the elevator in many buildings. A new type of gloved doorman will await employees, tasked with pressing the buttons on the elevator and making sure that there is a limit to the total number of employees allowed in the building. 

    The details at Millennium, which has 1,300 employees, also include the details of commuting and vacation planning. Millennium plans on not re-opening some offices until September, at the earliest. Funds are also implementing a longer-term work from home-style approach for many positions. 

    Barbara Bernstein, chief human resources officer at $12.5 billion Magnetar Capital, said: “You have to rethink all the little things. One thing’s for sure, our offices will look and feel different.”

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    Her office has been discussing “modular furniture, grab-and-go lunches and foot pedals on stall doors in restrooms”. 

    Until funds re-open, banks are leading the way in terms of examples, keeping bare-bones crews on board and adopting practices like sanitizing stations to combat the virus. Recall, we noted months ago that Ken Griffith even up and moved his entire office to a makeshift trading floor at the Four Seasons in Palm Beach. 

    Those same banks are now discussing their measures for re-opening; most of which focus on crowd control. J.P. Morgan, for instance, says it’ll keep offices half full. Citigroup is planning on opening additional offices in New York to spread out its staff.

    Offices like Point72 will likely apply the same precautions they used at their Asian offices, like keeping doors open to limit touch areas and increase air flow, and setting up additional sanitizing stations. Millennium will be implementing checkerboard-style seating. 

    Alifia Doriwala, a managing director at Rock Creek, said: “We’ve bought masks for our staff to wear. We’re thinking of closing the kitchen, and limiting bathroom use to two at a time.”

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    Firms like Clearbrook Global Advisors have developed a 7 stage plan for re-opening that includes an in-house Covid-19 coordinator and testing the 24 person staff before they return. Employees will also have to take educational training on how to navigate the premises and use masks. 

    Bridgewater has said it plans on increasing deep cleanings, limit employee mingling (as if there was any at Bridgewater to begin with) and require masks “at least some of the time”. 

    A survey done in May of more than 50 hedge fund clients found that about 70% of them were starting to look at procedures for re-opening. Many are rearranging floor plans, separating employees and encouraging the use of stairwells instead of elevators. Only 7% of respondents said they would stagger the timing of people coming and going from the building.

    Restrooms also remain a problem, since infected particles can linger in the air after a toilet is flushed. 

    Bernstein concluded: “The pandemic has given us an opportunity to rethink what our office spaces should look like in the future. That includes just how much space we’ll need now that more employees are more likely to work from home.”

     

  • 16 Simple Steps To Deal With Future Respiratory Virus Pandemics
    16 Simple Steps To Deal With Future Respiratory Virus Pandemics

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 20:45

    Authored by Koen Swinkels via The Libertarian Institute,

    Below are 16 simple steps to deal with future respiratory virus pandemics, crucially without a need for massive government intervention in the form of lockdowns, vaccines, immigration controls, or contact tracing.

    In fact, there is no particular reason why people and institutions in a libertarian society would not be able to implement the common sense measures below in a bottom-up way.

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    Image via Untapped New York

    Tens of millions of people have already lost their jobs or seen their hours cut, businesses will go under, retirement accounts lose value etc. The economic, financial, political and social consequences of this are devastating and scary to think about.

    In addition, the sudden restrictions on civil liberties are unprecedented: People are no longer allowed to take to the streets to protest; many are not even allowed to visit friends or family or go to their job unless government deems that job “essential”.

    * * *

    Here are 16 simple steps to deal with any major future respiratory virus pandemics that again — could be implemented in a localized, bottom-up way:

    1. Cancel events with large crowds, especially indoor events (but keep beaches, parks, cities, playgrounds etc open).

    2. Avoid closed or poorly ventilated spaces where multiple people spend a prolonged period of time, especially when they are laughing, singing, shouting or talking.

    3. When it’s not possible to do #2 and #3, wear masks in those situations.

    4. Everybody should wear face masks in public transport & crowds. Everywhere else is up to people’s own discretion.

    5. Isolate infected patients from others: Create special, isolated facilities either within or outside of hospitals and nursing homes.

    6. Don’t send infected patients (back) to nursing homes.

    7. Quarantine carers with (non-infected) nursing home residents & pay >500% overtime.

    8. Quarantine & protect the vulnerable (the elderly, people with serious other illnesses), and provide them with all the services they need.

    9. Keep everything else open: Let the young and healthy live their lives.

    10. Promote spending time outdoors.

    11. When possible, move activities outdoors.

    12. Open windows.

    13. Install or fix ventilation systems.

    14. Create virus clinics and telemedicine so that suspected virus patients don’t have to go to doctors where they may infect others.

    15. Everybody who tests positive or is a suspected patient receives a pulse oximeter and a thermometer to continually monitor their oxygen levels and temperature.

    16. Order ample PPE supplies before the pandemic starts.

    That’s it.

    https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

    For many more suggestions (as well as references to academic research) for reopening the economy while limiting the damage Covid-19 is doing, see here.

    But if we implement the 16 measures mentioned above, most of these 58 measures are probably unnecessary.

  •  Global Ad Spending Plunges As Hopes For V-shaped Recovery Fade
     Global Ad Spending Plunges As Hopes For V-shaped Recovery Fade

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 20:25

    As economic paralysis continues, global advertisement spending is set to collapse this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to WARC, an international marketing intelligence firm. 

    WARC tracks 96 markets worldwide, expects ad dollars to decline by 8.1% ($49.6 billion) to $563 billion this year. The forecast was initially an expansion of 7.1% for 2020, but those figures were quickly revised for a post-corona world. 

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    The report said traditional media ” will fare far worse than online,” with ad spending set to plunge $51.4 billion (-16.3%) this year. Much of the declines are seen across cinema (-31.6%), out of home (-21.7%), magazines (-21.5%), newspapers (-19.5%), radio (-16.2%) and TV (-13.8%). The good news, online advertising will see a slight expansion (+.06%). 

    Coronavirus lockdowns have wrecked households in both hemispheres. High unemployment plagues nearly every economy, along with plunging cash flows for businesses, who have now been forced to trim expenses and pull back on ad spending. 

    One of the hardest-hit areas for estimated ad spending this year is the travel and tourism industry, with an expected decline of 31.2%. Spending will likely remain depressed for several years as consumers avoid airplanes, cruise ships, hotels, casinos, etc., for fears of contracting the virus. 

    The slump in advertising has yet to surpass the record decline seen in 2009 when the global ad market contracted by 12.7%. The report notes an election year in the US could cushion ad spending. 

    James McDonald, WARC’s head of data content, said: “We note three distinct phases to the current downturn: firstly, an immediate demand-side induced paralysis for sectors such as travel, leisure, and retail, combined with supply-side constraints for CPG brands. Second, the recessionary tailwind will exert extreme pressure on the financial services sector as well as the consumer, whose disposable income is now heavily diminished.”

    “Finally, as the world takes tentative steps towards a recovery, there will be an added emphasis on healthcare and wellbeing credentials among brands not normally associated with the field, aside higher spending within the pharmaceutical sector to leverage the shifting consumer mindset,” McDonald said. 

    Without an expansion in global ad spending, this all suggests economic activity in every major and emerging economy will remain depressed through this year and into next, thwarting any chance a V-shaped recovery will be seen in the back half of 2020. 

  • Brazil Reports Another Record Jump In Cases As Global Total Nears 6 Million: Live Updates
    Brazil Reports Another Record Jump In Cases As Global Total Nears 6 Million: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 20:09

    Summary:

    • Brazil reports another record jump in new cases
    • Boston Marathon cancelled
    • North Carolina reports 827 deaths
    • Premier League soccer to re-start June 17
    • NY reports just 74 deaths for the second day in a row.
    • Italy reports <100 deaths for 4th time in 5 days
    • Trump tweets condolences
    • Brazil cases top 400k
    • South Korea reports alarming jump in cases
    • Blue House mulls reinstating strict social distancing measures
    • Philippines President to end Manila lockdown
    • Denmark decision to partially reopen schools deemed a ‘success’
    • New evidence of ‘Community Spread’ found in certain African countries

    * * *

    Update (1945ET): As the number of confirmed coronavirus cases draws inexorably closer to the 6 million mark, Brazil has once again proven itself the largest contributor to the daily global total, especially now that the number of cases confirmed daily in Russia has seemingly finally started to cool (relatively speaking).

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    On Thursday evening, Brazilian public health officials confirmed that the country had added another 26,417 confirmed cases to the national total – yet another daily record – as some experts warned Brazil might already be home to the largest outbreak in the world, or that it’s at least on par with the ~1.7 million confirmed cases in the US.

    Like his erstwhile ally President Trump, who recently slapped severe travel restrictions on Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro has sought to distract the public and energize his base by persecuting former allies, including the conservative governor of Rio de Janeiro, whose home was raided by Brazilian federal police in connection with a corruption probe (several of Governor Wilson Witzel’s predecessors were ousted by corruption scandals) earlier this week, and antagonize the country’s judiciary.

    Earlier this month, a tape of a cabinet meeting surfaced where one of Bolsonaro’s ministers can be heard calling for the Brazilian judiciary to be imprisoned. Now, Bolsonaro is castigating the Brazilian Supreme Court over a “fake news” investigation into his allies, Reuters reports.

    In a rare departure from the partisan rancor that has paralyzed government in the Trump era, a bipartisan group of senators offered a $3 billion plan to prepare for the next global health crisis, or perhaps even a second wave of COVID-19. Senator Jim Risch, Republican chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, and Democratic committee members Chris Murphy and Ben Cardin, introduced the bill. The group said they have “high hopes” about its prospects for becoming a law.

    The measure, which was introduced last week but announced on Thursday, would authorize $3 billion to rebuild the US pandemic defense system, invest in global vaccine developments and offer direct aid to help poorer nations build their health-care systems, Reuters said.

    * * *

    Update (1500ET): For the first time in its nearly 125-year history, the Boston Marathon has been cancelled, and will be replaced by a virtual race in September.

    In other news: Yesterday, California became the fourth US state to pass 100k infections. It joins Illinois (115,000), New Jersey (157,000) and New York (370,000), with just over 101,000 cases confirmed.

    The number of coronavirus cases confirmed around the global surpassed 5.9 million on Thursday, leaving it on track to pass 6 million in the next day or two.

    * * *

    Update (1400ET): North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper just reported one of the state’s largest one-day jump in deaths – 827 – as it continues to reopen its economy and ramp up testing capacity.

    The governor continued to urge his citizens to wear masks and wash their hands, while continuing to social distance.

    * * *

    Update (1330ET): Premier League soccer is set to restart its suspended season on June 17 with two matches, Aston Villa and Sheffield United, and Manchester City v Arsenal, unless the government decides against the league’s plan.

    A full round will follow on the weekend of June 19-21, according to the BBC.

    There are still 92 matches to play in the season, and from here on out, all matches will take place behind closed doors and will be broadcast live on Sky Sports, BT Sport, BBC Sport and/or Amazon Prime. BBC Sport said it would air 4 live matches.

    “The Premier League and our clubs are proud to have incredibly passionate and loyal supporters,” Premier League chief executive Richard Masters said.

    “It is important to ensure as many people as possible can watch the matches at home.”

    […]

    Masters added that the resumption date would not be confirmed “until we have met all the safety requirements needed.”

    Safety guidelines are yet to be issued by the government and decisions will remain subject to the government’s strategy for suppressing the virus while moving away from lockdown.

    Play was suspended on March 13. When it restarts next month, it will have been exactly 100 days since Leicester City’s 4-0 win over Aston Villa on March 9, which marked the last game played in the season before the pandemic forced the suspension of play.

    * * *

    Update (1200ET): As NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov Cuomo say the city will likely enter ‘Phase 1’ of the reopening some time in June, Italy has reported its latest results. Across the country, only 70 deaths were recorded over the past 24 hours – fewer deaths than were recorded in the state of New York, which has a population 1/3rd the size of Italy. Officials reported 70 deaths, the fourth time in the past 5 days where fewer than 100 deaths have been reported.

    Italy also reported 593 new cases on Thursday, bringing its total to 231,732, while the death toll hit 33,142 deaths.

    Cuomo said Thursday that NYC needs to figure out “contact tracing” and “public transit” before it can safely reopen. The city has hired an army of contact tracers.

    He also discussed the importance of “uniform standards” across the state. State rules and metrics to reopen New York City are the same rules and metrics to reopen all other regions of the state. “What is safe to reopen is safe, and if it’s safe for your family, it’s safe for my family,” Cuomo says. “I’m not going to reopen any region that I do not believe is safe.”

    * * *

    Update (1155ET): As scientists parse the effectiveness of lockdowns, here’s another reason to suggest that the more strict, more timely and more short-lived approach has shown compelling results.

    Still, as the NYT highlighted today in a summary of recent research, there’s little evidence to suggest that the world is anywhere near ‘herd immunity’ levels.

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    It also designed a nifty chart to illustrate the ‘surveillance’ penetration estimates in various ‘hot spots’

    * * *

    Update (1140ET): Before we start, remember…

    …the CDC recommends people wear masks when indoors or anywhere with poor ventilation, and anywhere people might be around crowds, though, to be sure, research suggests that active copies of the virus don’t linger in the air long enough to be infectious (though being within 6 feet of another might put you at risk of being hit by a stray bit of infectious saliva).

    Now, Cuomo is launching into his latest press briefing, laying out plans for more businesses to reopen across the state.

    For the second straight day, New York State recorded exactly 74 deaths, bringing the total death count above 23,600.

    “This is always painful,” Cuomo, who’s holding his briefing in Brooklyn today, acknowledged, as he always does. He also reported that the number of hospitalized patients around the state has fallen to ~4,000, with only 163 new patients admitted over the last day.

    Of course, it wouldn’t be a Cuomo presser without him griping about the federal government abandoning NY.

    Interestingly, Massachusetts last night said it recorded 527 new coronavirus cases and 74 new deaths. Will mass also report sub-100 deaths for another day on Thursday.

    Meanwhile, in the UK, the latest figures have just been released.

    As investigations into outbreaks at long-term care homes (including nursing homes) continue across the US and around the world, Virginia has released data on Thursday showing more than half of total COVID deaths in the state involved LTC patients.

    * * *

    With Johns Hopkins finally confirming that the US death toll had passed the 100k mark…

    …President Trump tweeted his condolences to the families of all those who lost loved ones during the pandemic.

    With the US temporarily preoccupied by looting in Minneapolis and elsewhere – the focus during the early morning hours was on Asia, as Japanese health officials reported a new cluster: A hospital in Koganei city, located on the outskirts of Tokyo, have confirmed 3 infected patients, with 18 more reporting symptoms, including a fever. South Korea recently uncovered a ‘silent’ cluster after testing tens of thousands of people who had traveled to a popular nightlife district of Seoul one evening after a nightclubber tested positive, raising fears of a new ‘superspreader’ cluster.

    With testing ramping up once again, officials are reportedly weighing whether to revive more-strict social distancing rules due to a recent increase in confirmed cases.

    The 79 new cases of COVID-19 reported Thursday by SK health officials was the highest single-day total seen in nearly eight weeks. The total number of infections now stands at 11,344 in the country of 51 million.

    In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte approved a recommendation to ease the lockdown in the capital Manila beginning on June 1 as he tries to pull his country’s economy back from the brink of what would likely be a bruising recession.

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    German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged her fellow world leaders to provide more money to multinational NGOs like the UN and WHO in the name of accelerating the global recovery from the virus.

    Expanding on that point, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres agitated for more comprehensive sovereign debt relief for the poorest nations, insisting that “relief must be extended to all developing, middle-income countries that request forbearance as they lose access to financial markets” amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    Later today, PM Johnson will set out the next steps on easing Britain’s lockdown, describing what will be possible from June 1.

    As France and Germany abandon the drugs, Indonesia said Thursday it will continue to prescribe two anti-malarial drugs – chloroquine and its derivative, hydroxychloroquine – for coronavirus patients but monitor their use closely.

    UK police have said Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s senior adviser Dominic Cummings did breach the coronavirus lockdown but that it was minor and they will take no further action, the Telegraph has reported.

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    Source: Al Jazeera

    Though Africa has been largely spared the brunt of the global outbreak, Al Jazeera warned that cases of community transmission of the coronavirus are growing, particularly in Ethiopia, and that a new strategy for testing is needed to prevent further spread.

    “We are beginning to see sustained community transmission within Ethiopia and many other countries across Africa. That means we need to increase our public health measures like distancing, wearing of masks, washing of hands,” Head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention John Nkengasong told journalists.

    Brazil recorded more than 1,000 new deaths from the coronavirus over the past day, officials said Wednesday. The 1,086 new casualties bring the total number of deaths to 25,598. With 20,599 new cases, one of the largest single-day increases yet, the number of infected people has reached 411,821.

    And finally, a partial reopening of schools in Denmark has not lead to an increase in coronavirus infections among pupils, a doctor of infectious disease epidemiology and prevention at the Danish Serum Institute said Thursday, citing newly released government data.

    Denmark was one of the first countries to reopen, as it allowed some younger students – up to the fifth grade – to return to school on April 15 after a month-long break.

    “You cannot see any negative effects from the reopening of schools,” the scientist said. In the US, NJ Gov Phil Murphy said earlier this week that he would allow outdoor high school graduation ceremonies to continue.

  • Rioting In Minneapolis Is So Bad, The Fires Show Up On Air Quality Maps
    Rioting In Minneapolis Is So Bad, The Fires Show Up On Air Quality Maps

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 20:05

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    The rioting in Minneapolis last night was so bad that the fires from the burning buildings show up on this morning’s air quality control maps.

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    Looters rampaged through nearby stores having earlier staged violent protests outside the 3rd Precinct police station in response to the death-by-cop of George Floyd.

    Target, McDonalds, Dollar Tree, Wendy’s, two liquor stores and AutoZone were all attacked and looted.

    Air quality maps from the area of the riots show diminished air quality as a result of the sheer intensity of the fires which engulfed several buildings.

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    One of the buildings targeted was an affordable housing block under construction that was completely burned to the ground.

    “An affordable housing complex under construction near the corner of Lake and Minnehaha caught fire early Thursday, quickly engulfing an entire city block. Smoke from the multi-story building was visible from miles away,” reports the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.

    “Dozens stood and filmed the fireball until they realized that adjacent buildings were in danger. People grabbed garden hoses and barrels to try to save their own houses from a similar fate.”

    Burning down an affordable housing block to fight systematic racism and police brutality! Incredible.

    *  *  *

    My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me. Please sign up for the free newsletter here. Donate to me on SubscribeStar here. Support my sponsor – Turbo Force – a supercharged boost of clean energy without the comedown.

  • Here's How 'Rare' Trend Of Pay Cuts For Employed Nationwide Spells Doom For Rapid Recovery
    Here’s How ‘Rare’ Trend Of Pay Cuts For Employed Nationwide Spells Doom For Rapid Recovery

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 19:45

    Bloomberg has issued the latest deeply pessimistic report suggesting ‘return to normal’ will be a long way off amid mounting evidence of widespread pay cuts for those Americans managing to hold on to their jobs amid Great Depression level unemployment.

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    File image via Small Biz Daily

    Flying in the face of “sticky wages” theory — Keynes’ observation that employee pay doesn’t adjust quickly to either company performance or external economic crises — the growing body of anecdotal evidence points to widespread temporary salary reductions.

    Observes Bloomberg

    Outside of “high-demand sectors such as grocery stores,” there are signs of “general wage softening and salary cuts” all over the economy, according to a Fed business survey in April. A study by Thomvest Ventures, which looked at 22 public and private technology companies, found that non-executive employees had seen pay reduced by an average of 10% to 15%.

    “The hard numbers won’t be in for months, but anecdotal evidence is piling up. On earnings calls, big businesses including The Container Store Group and Lyft have cited what they say are temporary salary reductions,” the report continues. 

    “Federal Reserve officials also have found plenty of supporting evidence.”

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    Via Bloomberg/US Dept. of Labor

    The obvious concern in terms of broader recovery and its speed amid impending state re-openings is that even among those comfortably still in the workforce, more of their income will go toward fixed obligations like mortgages, car payments, or other debts — leaving them much more conservative in terms of the type of ‘outside’ retail, dining, or entertainment type spending that typically drives economic recovery.

    Chief US economist at Barclays Plc in New York, Michael Gapen, told Bloomberg: “It’s one of the reasons why we don’t expect a so-called V-shaped recovery.”

    Gaben underscored that employees undergoing pay cuts “might have little, and in some cases maybe nothing, left over after that for discretionary purchases.”

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    Another insight that helps explain why the traditional sticky wages trend is not holding up amid the corona-crisis is as follows

    The circumstances of a public-health crisis probably make pay cuts more palatable to workers than they’d normally be, according to Bruce Fallick, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland -– at least initially.

    “If the state of Ohio tells you you have to shut down, or you can only have customers if they’re spaced by this amount, and they can only come in at this rate, and all that sort of thing, it’s pretty obvious to everybody what’s going on,” he said.

    The report concludes further, “And there’s no guarantee salaries will return quickly to pre-crisis levels.”

    Combine this also with the potential for Americans exhibiting a slow or hesitantly reluctant return to activities like eating out, going to retail shops, or attending large entertainment venue events like concerts or movie theaters even when these things do reopen to normal capacity. 

Digest powered by RSS Digest

Today’s News 28th May 2020

  • Watch: Russian Jets In Another "Unsafe" Intercept Of US Spy Plane Near Syrian Airbase
    Watch: Russian Jets In Another “Unsafe” Intercept Of US Spy Plane Near Syrian Airbase

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 02:45

    For the third time in a couple of months American and Russian aircraft entered a close, dangerous encounter over the Mediterranean near Russia’s Hmeimim Airbase in western Syria.

    The Tuesday incident reportedly involved two Russian Su-35 jets which intercepted a US Navy reconnaissance aircraft over the eastern Mediterranean. The Pentagon blasted their actions as “unsafe”,”unprofessional” and “irresponsible”. 

    “For the third time in two months, Russian pilots flew in an unsafe and unprofessional manner while intercepting a US Navy P-8A Maritime Patrol and Reconnaissance Aircraft,” the Navy said of the provocative aerial encounter, which like prior recent intercepts was caught on video.

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    Via US Sixth Fleet

    The US statement underscored the danger in “the Russian pilots taking close station on each wing of the P-8A simultaneously, restricting the P-8A’s ability to safely maneuver.”

    Indeed photographs and video show that each Su-35 fighter just behind each wing of the airliner-size US recon plane. The Russian jets accompanied the aircraft for about 65 minutes, according to the statement.

    It appears the Russian Air Force has drawn a ‘red line’ in not tolerating flights near its Hmeimim Airbase in western Syria.

    Recall too that a mere two weeks ago the top US special envoy to region, James Jeffrey, openly declared “his job” was to make Syria a “quagmire” for the Russians.

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    Via US Sixth Fleet

    His comments came on May 12 during a video conference hosted by the neocon Hudson Institute:

    Asked why the American public should tolerate US involvement in Syria, Special Envoy James Jeffrey points out the small US footprint in the fight against ISIS. “This isn’t Afghanistan. This isn’t Vietnam. This isn’t a quagmire. My job is to make it a quagmire for the Russians.”

    No doubt, the Kremlin took note, putting their military even more on edge and on alert, suspicious of any level of US reconnaissance along Syria’s coastline. 

    Though the Syrian war has largely slipped from the headlines, the question of jihadi-control over Idlib province is still festering, and likely the Americans are closely monitoring Syrian Army and Russian moves on the area. 

  • Support For China Falls Dramatically In European, Indian Polls
    Support For China Falls Dramatically In European, Indian Polls

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Lawrence Kadish via The Gatestone Institute,

    A soon to be released international survey finds that when the COVID-19 virus finally burns itself out its biggest victim may be the very country that launched the pandemic – China.

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    Bluster, bullying, and propaganda launched by China’s leadership to subdue international criticism of their handling of COVID-19 is only stoking the anger among nations as diverse as the U.K., Germany and India, according to data revealed during a comprehensive poll conducted by the firm McLaughlin & Associates.

    They may not embrace the White House on any given issue but when it comes to China, a large and significant number of those polled in this global COVID-19 survey would now support economic sanctions, confronting China’s strategy to achieve global dominance by controlling worldwide access to technology, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, and more.

    What can only be described as a diplomatic earthquake is the emerging political fault line along China’s southern border with India.

    The McLaughlin poll found that a majority of voters in the world’s largest democracy, some 54%, believe China hid key COVID-19 details, resulting in more damage by the pandemic, and 78% believe China knowingly kept data from the international community.

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    And it gets worse for Beijing. As many as 85% of Indian voters believe China should be held accountable with 88% approving of an investigation of not just China but the World Health Organization (WHO) regarding what did they know and when did they know it.

    More than three time zones away, in Germany, a significant majority, 69% of voters polled, say China has not been open or honest about COVID-19, and more than a third say there is little doubt China hid key details regarding its origins or spread. In the U.K. seven out of 10 voters, or 68%, say China kept data about the virus from the world.

    In Germany, 61% of the voters believe China should be held accountable while in the U.K., 81% of those voters polled said the Chinese government should be held accountable with 20% of those United Kingdom respondents suggesting one response should be lawsuits by families impacted by COVID-19.

    Some 26% proposed diplomatic actions, and 38% believe economic actions would be the best response.

    When asked whether they would support changes in diplomatic and economic relations with China if it was revealed that that regime withheld information, more than half of the Germans polled, 54%, said yes.

    A stunning 80% said their nation needs to end its dependence on China and 71% believe Germany should withdraw manufacturing investments. In the UK 74% of the respondents were prepared to change their relationship with China following COVID-19.

    The only good news for a China intent on diminishing America’s role as a 21st century superpower is that a majority of those surveyed abroad believe China’s COVID-19 induced economic tremor has impacted America’s global leadership, a goal the Chinese dare not accomplish through military means, no matter how many additional nuclear weapons they seek to place in their growing arsenal.

    That response reflects a tacit acknowledgment that China’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, whether deliberate or otherwise, has allowed it to win a public perception battle without firing a shot.

    It also reveals what the White House already knows; this is a defining moment for China, its relationship with the United States, and those nations the Chinese intend to place under their economic thumb.

    This poll will compel Beijing to consider a stark truth. Their offer of billions in health aid to those nations suffering from COVID-19, coupled with an extensive media/diplomatic blitz that threatens those brave enough to question their actions, is a complete failure.

    In fact, the global survey documents a rising awareness of the existential threat from a China that has not only infected the world but seeks to hold the keys to the medical and economic remedies our world needs.

    We will recover from COVID-19. Our nation has withstood far worse.

    What America needs now is to hear these overseas voices of outrage over China’s treachery and respond with the bipartisan political will to confront the real danger: a regime that will use the chaos of COVID-19 to acclerate their strategy of dominating the 21st century as the world’s sole superpower.

    *  *  *

    The full poll results for the Kadish article on our European and Indian polls are found here.

  • Your "Immunity Passport" Future Begins To Materialize As Airlines Call For Digital ID Tracking
    Your “Immunity Passport” Future Begins To Materialize As Airlines Call For Digital ID Tracking

    Tyler Durden

    Thu, 05/28/2020 – 00:05

    Authored by Derrick Broze via The Last American Vagabond blog,

    The world’s largest airline trade group has called for immunity passports, thermal screening, masks, and physical distancing to be a part of the industry’s strategy for returning to “normal” operations.

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    The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents 299 airlines, recently issued their publication, Biosecurity for Air Transport A Roadmap for Restarting Aviation, which outlines their strategy to open up air travel as governments begin to lift travel restrictions.

    Under a section titled, “The passenger experience” and “Temporary biosecurity measures,” the IATA describes their vision of post-COVID-19 flights. The organization calls for contact tracing, a controversial method of tracking the civilian population to track the spread of COVID-19.

    “We foresee the need to collect more detailed passenger contact information which can be used for tracing purposes,” the report states. “Where possible, the data should be collected in electronic form, and in advance of the passenger arriving at the airport including through eVisa and electronic travel authorization platforms.”

    Interestingly, this call for pre-boarding check-in using “electronic travel authorization platforms” coincides with the recent announcement of the Covi-Pass and the Health Pass from Clear, both of which call for a digital ID system using biometrics and storing travel, health, and identification data.

    Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s CEO, told Arabian Industry that “a layered approach” combining multiple measures which are “globally implemented and mutually recognized by governments” are “the way forward for biosecurity.”

    The IATA also calls for temperature screening at entry points to airport terminals. They envision the airline experience involving physical distancing of 3-6 feet throughout the airport. The group believes changes to the airport buildings to allow for physical distancing may be necessary. The IATA also recommended “face coverings” for passengers and protective equipment for airline and airport staff.

    Although the organization acknowledged that there is not currently a fast reliable test for COVID-19, they believe that once an effective test is developed it could be applied on entry to the terminal. They call for this measure to be “incorporated into the passenger process as soon as an effective test, validated by the medical community, has been developed.”

    On the topic of immunity passports — an idea discussed by Anthony Fauci, the World Health Organization, and Bill Gates — the IATA states that “immunity passports could play an important role in further facilitating the restart of air travel.” The organization believes that if a person is shown to have recovered from COVID-19 and developed immunity they will not need protective measures. Once medical evidence supports the possibility of immunity to COVID-19, IATA believes “it is essential that a recognized global standard be introduced, and that corresponding documents be made available electronically.”

    Finally, the IATA believes a “general move towards greater use of touchless technology and biometrics should also be pursued.” Biometrics would include facial recognition, retina scanning, and/or thumbprints.

    This vision painted by the IATA is one where those who choose to fly are faced with invasive security measures, surveillance, biometric tracking, immunity passports, temperature screenings, and generally, less human contact due to physical distancing and less communication with actual people. Of course, this push towards a digital ID which contains an individual’s personal identifying information, health records, and other personal data is part of an agenda which predates COVID-19. The “powers that wish they were” are taking every opportunity to expand their technocratic control grid and the panic caused by COVID-19 allows them to accelerate their plans at a rate not seen since the days after the attacks of September 11, 2001.

    The only thing stopping the roll out of this Technocratic State is the people of the world coming together, informing those who are in the dark, and unplugging from this control grid.

  • 'Not A Global Police Force': Pentagon To Brief Trump On Afghan Exit Before Election Timetable
    ‘Not A Global Police Force’: Pentagon To Brief Trump On Afghan Exit Before Election Timetable

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 23:45

    Multiple reports now indicate President Trump wants to pull all American troops out of Afghanistan by the November election, following a shaky historic ceasefire and truce deal with the Taliban, lately showing signs of actually holding, given a key prisoner swap successfully taking effect in the past days considered integral to the agreement.  

    Trump tweeted on the matter Wednesday morning, again invoking what made his foreign policy attractive on the 2016 campaign trail of rejecting the neocon idea of being the ‘globe’s police force’ – instead putting America first. 

    “We are acting as a police force, not the fighting force that we are, in Afghanistan. After 19 years, it is time for them to police their own Country,” the president said on Twitter.

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    Given his prior promises to his base and to the country, if Trump is to actually deliver on what past administrations have failed at (a final exit from the Afghan quagmire), it could give him a huge boost ahead of November. 

    He made similar comments the day prior, on Tuesday. “We’re there 19 years and, yeah, I think that’s enough… We can always go back if we want to,” he told a White House news conference. “We want to bring our soldiers back home,” he emphasized.

    “We are not meant to be a police force, we’re meant to be a fighting force,” Trump said.

    During the press conference he was asked whether the Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 26 would be a suitable target. Trump responded: “No. I have no target. But as soon as (is) reasonable. Over a period of time but as soon as reasonable.”

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    AFP/Getty images

    But The New York Times reports Trump could be eyeing an earlier, ambitious withdrawal date of at least before November 3rd, election day:

    Senior military officials are set to brief President Trump in the coming days on options for pulling all American troops out of Afghanistan, with one possible timeline for withdrawing forces before the presidential election, according to officials with knowledge of the plans.

    The proposal for a complete withdrawal by November reflects an understanding among military commanders that such a timeline may be Mr. Trump’s preferred option because it may help bolster his campaign.

    But they plan to propose, and to advocate, a slower withdrawal schedule, officials said.

    But of course, like with similar ‘timetables’ drawn up before, it will be much easier said than done, given the generals are already reportedly pushing the idea that a ‘quick’ exit would doom the shaky truce between the US, Taliban, and Afghan national government in Kabul. 

    Very likely, the same discussion could be happening once we reach the full twenty year anniversary of America’s longest — and frankly largely ‘forgotten’ war.

  • Flores: 7 Ways The DNC Will Use Contact-Tracers For Biden's Campaign To Oust Trump
    Flores: 7 Ways The DNC Will Use Contact-Tracers For Biden’s Campaign To Oust Trump

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 23:25

    Authored by Joaquin Flores via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    The Democrat Party’s GOTV (Get Out the Vote) program relies on labor unions and the NGO sector. Those who organized these directly as this writer has, or those who have been on the receiving end of it, will understand how this zeal, backed by the force of law under the auspices of Contact Tracers/Compliance Officers, will change the electoral outcome.

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    Contact Tracers are Compliance Officers Backed by Police and Operating under Governor’s Orders

    Contact Tracers are based on public sector workers in the area of public health, or NGO’s that rely on funding from DNC backed philanthropy and state budgets. They all rely on their relationship to the DNC to exist.

    Among the first NGO’s to receive grants to carry out Contact Tracing work is PIH – Partners In Health. This group, funded by the Clinton Foundation, worked in Rwanda and Haiti. Chelsea Clinton sits on the governing board, and other prominent backers and allies include Rahm Emanuel, Epstein, and Gates.

    An investigative report by Raul Diego for Mint Press gives a comprehensive outline of just how Contact Tracers as a type of Compliance Officers from PIH, will work. From his journalism, we see components of the program and how they are meant to dovetail as part of the coming 2020 electoral strategy.

    Clinton tweeted in mid-May, urging other governors in the country to follow California governor Newsom’s order for mail-in ballots.

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    Contact tracers as part of the NGO Industrial Complex, as a private-charter variation of the public sector, only less accountable, will become a new layer of society invested in preserving their work by voting to maintain their budget.

    Because Contact Tracers can enter the homes and because some voting polls may also be closed, we can see where Contact Tracers will ‘assist’ voters in their homes with their mail-in ballots. We can predict that in Democrat voting households there will be a disproportionate increase in ballots that actually wind up being counted.

    While there has been focus on HR 6666 that adds financing for Contact Tracers, there are ways these can be financed (as they already are) anyway. The ‘bailouts’ at the end of March included massive provisions for the NGO sector dealing in areas of civil society ranging from immigration to public education and healthcare.

    These were the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA), and the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.

    At-home methods of electronic voting and mail-in that do away with exit-poll cross-checks, is the preferred general strategy the Democrat Party will use to steal the election.

    Polls showing Biden ahead should be discounted prima facie, as these are the polls before that intentionally projected Hillary Clinton despite unpublished polls used by the campaigns to the contrary. Both campaigns had a clear understanding that Trump had a very strong chance of winning on that decisive night. This is why ‘insurance policies’ were openly discussed by team Clinton as the election approached.

    The fake polls will be used to show that Biden had a strong chance of winning all along. That’s pertinent to the strategy to oust Trump by way of coup tactics.

    The strategy to remove Trump is designed to work as follows:

    1. Suppress voter turnout by Party identification. To limit voter turn-out by precinct based on party affiliation, and to increase voter turnout in other areas. The inclusion of Contact Tracers and the ‘Compliance Officer-like’ powers they will be granted in short-time for the election, will be among the game-changers.

    2. Cancelling In-Person voting. Towards 1., for Contact Tracers to ‘quarantine’ likely Trump voters not as individual households but by ‘infected precinct’. The presence of the Covid-19 ‘disease’ in a precinct, will be determined by Contact Tracers’ data (from both apps and human agents). The governor will be able to declare that elections should be online, by mail, or using greatly limited polls. These Contact Tracers will be able to use ‘voluntary’ apps to narrow down alleged infection rates by block, neighborhood, precinct/county. That these apps aren’t ‘voluntary’ however is explained in this report.

    3. Contact Tracers to Police In-Person Polls. To have Contact Tracers work as Compliance Officers under the governor’s instructions at polls, which will slow-down voting and suppress the vote, close polls early or limit exit polling in line with social distancing norms. As was done in the Democrat primaries, counter-intuitive decisions were made to close down polls to ‘limit exposure’. This had the effect of forcing would-be voters to travel greater distances, if they were still motivated, only to find long-lines. Some of these polls closed before those in line were able to vote. Those who maintained their right to vote, because they had been in line on time, were either told that due to the pandemic they did not have that right, or given provisional ballots – which are counted mostly just in the instance of a re-count.

    4. Contact Tracers blur line between work and campaign visits. To have Contact Tracers work as GOTV ‘volunteers’ on off-hours and weekends, both on telephone and in person in door-knock efforts for the Biden campaign. Critical here is that in areas where movement is limited, Contact Tracers as essential workers will not have to abide by such limitations. Or, in their capacity as Contract Tracers, they will also leave election literature at locations they visit. This may seem illegal, but this is what NGO and union employees do regularly. This strategy simply increases the size of the army and having the advantage of the freedom of movement in what will prove to be a highly unusual election.

    5. To give Republican households a health and safety visit on Election Day. To have Contact Tracers focus on Republican homes, and bog the family down on election day with a health and safety check which could also involve the terrifying visit by CPS and the possibility of a mandatory Covid-19 test and possibly children being removed from an infectious environment.

    6. Weaponize the second wave of Coronavirus. To make sure that overall there is a ‘second wave’ of Coronavirus that is treated similarly as the ‘first wave’ which we have only now begun to emerge from. A Digital Trends article from April 11th depicts a Bill Gates ‘super-worried’ about a second wave of coronavirus’.

    7. Governors declare State of Emergency. This can be done in such a way that, using Contact Tracers’ data, can decide which targeted parts of a state – by county – to shut down. Expect that universities, and colleges will be shut down. Bernie Sanders and the Squad will use their popularity among college students to promote an alternate reality. We will have many youth mobilized to work both in social media and as campaign workers. From this fertile soil of youth, we will find many new Contact Tracer job openings created as we approach November. This May 11th article shows that universities have already started offering Contact Tracing courses.

    We can therefore expect the strategy to take shape by state this way – by comparing the Electoral College map of 2016…

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    to the breakdown of Dem and Rep governors by state in 2020.

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    The Center for Politics affirms the following points to consider:

    “Following the 2019 elections, Republicans retain a narrow 26-24 edge in governorships.”

    We should be looking at the governorships by state because of the authority they have in establishing the rules when there is a state of emergency.

    The governors declare states of emergency. In addition, they claim other powers as well which have not been challenged yet in federal courts.

    The precedent for cancelling primary elections or changing how general elections will be done ( e-voting from home or mail-in) – was already seen for New York and California respectively.

    Those who may be thinking that states are opening up and that this is not a subject in play come November, have not understood the meaning of Dr. Fauci and Bill Gates that the coronavirus will return again this coming Fall.

    As we have mentioned, the tracing apps that will make voter suppression through Contact Tracers using the coronavirus pretext more easy to pull-off are nominally voluntary, but does that mean citizens will really have a choice?

    Voluntary Tracing May Not be Voluntary

    People generally interact not with government who indeed may not ‘mandate’ the use of such an app, but rather revolve in dealings with private businesses.

    What is voluntary for you will also voluntary for businesses to mandate for customers and employees to enter the premises. Most employees are at-will, and businesses have the right to refuse service to anyone.

    This is already in effect the Jacinda Ardern dictatorship of New Zealand. NZ is proving to be an effective test ground which most closely mirrors the Wuhan protocols of covid-19 containment through Contact Tracing and movement suppression, except that unlike China, this is never-ending.

    Unless there is tremendous pushback from Trump and his activist base, we should assume moving forward that by November 2020 when most U.S. citizens will have a Contact Tracing app on their smart phone, the election will be stolen. There are 251 million smart phone owners in the U.S.

    What’s also voluntary? That your smart phone comes with an OS, and the OS makers (Android, iOS) can voluntarily place a contact tracer in the next update.

    The Philosophical Problem

    Whether one wants one side to win or the other isn’t as much a question of who behaves most fairly, but on what outcomes we wish to see. For those who want to see a Bourbonesque ‘restorationist’ move to Clinton-Bush-Obama-era ‘norms’, they will go for Biden. For those who see in Trump a type of Napoleonic ‘revolutionist’ against the Ancien Regime who contained and corralled the Jacobinist forces of Occupy into a new type of system, their option is clear.

    We must End Quarantine, not create ‘Jobs’ in ‘Contact Tracing’

    The grass-roots Republican efforts, tacitly endorsed by the Trump campaign, to mobilize against the quarantine, are a step in the right direction. In Michigan we saw an armed ‘militia’/open-carry grouping backed by over four thousand citizens who converged on the state capitol. In Wisconsin it resulted in mass protests and such pressure that the Supreme Court in that state was forced to reign in the caprice of an autocrat governor. In California we saw a mass mobilization of thousands demanding access to the beach, and more.

    These moves for citizens to push against quarantine are popular and also radical. It is odd that the progressive left, some thinking themselves ‘revolutionaries’, only defer to the institutional power of the billionaire class like Bill Gates, and institutions like the WHO and the CDC. They ignore the tools available within their own Marxian analysis, that regulatory capture by big pharma, and sinister elites with misanthropist capital-accumulating platforms, should render these institutions illegitimate.

    So here we find the amazing part – that those who wanted to restore the greatness of America are the revolutionists, and those who utilize the naiveté and rage of the revolutionary left are restorationists.

    This coming election will be the most unusual in American history, and if the above outlined problems are not addressed, could result in a chain of extra-legal, extra-parliamentary grass-roots violence.

  • ​​​​​​​Virus Masks Wash Ashore After Vessel Loses 40 Containers In Rough Seas
    ​​​​​​​Virus Masks Wash Ashore After Vessel Loses 40 Containers In Rough Seas

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 23:05

    The APL England, a large container ship, lost 40 shipping containers in rough seas off the east coast of Australia over the weekend, reported the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA).

    The Singapore-flagged container ship was about 45 miles east of Sydney when the vessel experienced a “temporary loss of propulsion” on Sunday morning. Lifeless in heavy seas, the vessel was rocked by monster waves that caused container stacks to topple over and fall overboard.   

    Incident map 

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    In addition to the 40 containers, 74 were “damaged and collapsed on the deck of the ship, while a further six containers are reported to be protruding from the starboard side and three containers from the port side of the ship,” AMSA said in a Facebook post. 

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    Up close container damage on APL England via AMSA

    Aerial footage of the ship on Monday

    The incident forced the vessel to turn around and anchor off Brisbane in Byron Bay as AMSA surveyed the damage. 

    Our team of surveyors conducted a seaworthiness inspection to establish the structural and operational condition of the ship. The outcome of this inspection will help inform if, and how, the ship might be brought safely into the Port of Brisbane.

    “It appears that the affected stacks contained a wide range of goods like household appliances, building materials and medical supplies.

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    AMSA survey pictures of APL England damage 

    “We have also received a report of some medical supplies (for example, face masks) washing up between Magenta Beach and The Entrance. If you see debris which could be linked to the incident, please pass this information on to NSW Maritime,” AMSA said Tuesday. 

    On Wednesday morning, AMSA said, “our surveyors conducted an inspection” and found the vessel to be “fit.” It determined to bring the vessel into port on midday Tuesday. 

    “We are currently investigating the ship on two fronts. It’s compliance with both Australian and international maritime safety standards, and also whether the ship has breached any Australian environmental protection regulations or standards,” AMSA wrote. 

    AMSA also said if people “discover any suspected debris or shipping containers” along the New South Wales coastline, that they should contact authorities. 

    AMSA General Manager of Operations Allan Schwartz said reports are already coming in that medical supplies, such as face masks, are washing up “between Magenta Beach and The Entrance.” It appears some of the containers were packed with critical medical supplies to combat COVID-19. 

  • These FBI Docs Put Barack Obama In The Middle Of The 'Obamagate' Narrative
    These FBI Docs Put Barack Obama In The Middle Of The ‘Obamagate’ Narrative

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 22:45

    Authored by John Solomon via JustTheNews.com,

    Agents fretted sharing Flynn intel with departing Obama White House would become fodder for ‘partisan axes to grind.’

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    Just 17 days before President Trump took office in January 2017, then-FBI counterintelligence agent Peter Strzok texted bureau lawyer Lisa Page, his mistress, to express concern about sharing sensitive Russia probe evidence with the departing Obama White House.

    Strzok had just engaged in a conversation with his boss, then-FBI Assistant Director William Priestap, about evidence from the investigation of incoming National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, codenamed Crossfire Razor, or “CR” for short.

    The evidence in question were so-called “tech cuts” from intercepted conversations between Flynn and Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak, according to the texts and interviews with officials familiar with the conversations.

    Strzok related Priestap’s concerns about the potential the evidence would be politically weaponized if outgoing Director of National Intelligence James Clapper shared the intercept cuts with the White House and President Obama, a well-known Flynn critic.

    “He, like us, is concerned with over sharing,” Strzok texted Page on Jan. 3, 2017, relating his conversation with Priestap.

    “Doesn’t want Clapper giving CR cuts to WH. All political, just shows our hand and potentially makes enemies.”

    Page seemed less concerned, knowing that the FBI was set in three days to release its initial assessment of Russian interference in the U.S. election.

    “Yeah, but keep in mind we were going to put that in the doc on Friday, with potentially larger distribution than just the DNI,” Page texted back.

    Strzok responded, “The question is should we, particularly to the entirety of the lame duck usic [U.S Intelligence Community] with partisan axes to grind.”

    That same day Strzok and Page also discussed in text messages a drama involving one of the Presidential Daily Briefings for Obama.

    “Did you follow the drama of the PDB last week?” Strzok asked.

    “Yup. Don’t know how it ended though,” Page responded.

    “They didn’t include any of it, and Bill [Priestap] didn’t want to dissent,” Strzok added.

    “Wow, Bill should make sure [Deputy Director] Andy [McCabe] knows about that since he was consulted numerous times about whether to include the reporting,” Page suggested.

    You can see the text messages recovered from Strzok’s phone here.

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    The text messages, which were never released to the public by the FBI but were provided to this reporter in September 2018, have taken on much more significance to both federal and congressional investigators in recent weeks as the Justice Department has requested that Flynn’s conviction be thrown out and his charges of lying to the FBI about Kislyak dismissed.

    U.S. Attorney Jeff Jensen of Missouri (special prosecutor for DOJ), the FBI inspection division, three Senate committees and House Republicans are all investigating the handling of Flynn’s case and whether any crimes were committed or political influence exerted.

    The investigators are trying to determine whether Obama’s well-known disdain for Flynn, a career military intelligence officer, influenced the decision by the FBI leadership to reject its own agent’s recommendation to shut down a probe of Flynn in January 2017 and instead pursue an interview where agents might catch him in a lie.

    They also want to know whether the conversation about the PDB involved Flynn and “reporting” the FBI had gathered by early January 2017 showing the incoming national security adviser was neither a counterintelligence nor a criminal threat.

    “The evidence connecting President Obama to the Flynn operation is getting stronger,” one investigator with direct knowledge told me.

    “The bureau knew it did not have evidence to justify that Flynn was either a criminal or counterintelligence threat and should have shut the case down. But the perception that Obama and his team would not be happy with that outcome may have driven the FBI to keep the probe open without justification and to pivot to an interview that left some agents worried involved entrapment or a perjury trap.”

    The investigator said more interviews will need to be done to determine exactly what role Obama’s perception of Flynn played in the FBI’s decision making.

    Recently declassified evidence show a total of 39 outgoing Obama administration officials sought to unmask Flynn’s name in intelligence interviews between Election Day 2016 and Inauguration Day 2017, signaling a keen interest in Flynn’s overseas calls.

    Former Whitewater Independent Counsel Robert Ray said Friday that the Flynn matter was at the very least a “political scandal of the highest order” and could involve criminal charges if evidence emerges that officials lied or withheld documents to cover up what happened.

    “I imagine there are people who are in the know who may well have knowingly withheld information from the court and from defense counsel in connection with the Michael Flynn prosecution,” Ray told Fox News.

    “If it turns out that that can be proved, then there are going to be referrals and potential false statements, and/or perjury prosecutions to hold those, particularly those in positions of authority, accountable,” he added.

    Investigators have created the following timeline of key events through documents produced piecemeal by the FBI over two years:

    • April 2014: Flynn is forced out as the chief of DIA by Obama after clashing with the administration over the Syrian civil war, the rise of ISIS, and other policies. The Obama administration blames his management style for the departure.

    • July 31, 2016: FBI opens Crossfire Hurricane probe into possible ties between Trump campaign and Russia, focused on Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos. Flynn is not an initial target of that probe.

    • Aug. 15, 2016: Strzok and Page engage in their infamous text exchange about having an insurance policy just in case Trump should be elected. “I want to believe the path you threw out for consideration in Andy’s office — that there’s no way he gets elected — but I’m afraid we can’t take that risk. It’s like an insurance policy in the unlikely event you die before you’re 40,” one text reads.

    • Aug. 16, 2016: FBI opens a sub-case under the Crossfire Hurricane umbrella codenamed Crossfire Razor focused on whether Flynn was wittingly or unwittingly engaged in inappropriate Russian contact.

    • Aug. 17, 2016: FBI and DNI provide Trump and Flynn first briefing after winning the nomination, including on Russia. FBI slips in an agent posing as an assistant for the briefing to secretly get a read on Flynn for the new investigation, according to the Justice Department inspector general report on Russia case. “SSA 1 told us that the briefing provided him ‘the opportunity to gain assessment and possibly some level of familiarity with [Flynn]. So, should we get to the point where we need to do a subject interview … would have that to fall back on,’” the IG report said.

    • Sept, 2, 2016: While preparing a talking points memo for Obama ahead of a conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin involving Russian election interference, Page texts Strzok that Obama wants to be read-in on everything the FBI is doing on the Russia collusion case. “POTUS wants to know everything we’re doing,” Page texted.

    • Sept. 5, 2016: During an international summit in China, Obama meets face-to-face with Putin and tells him to “cut it out” with election meddling.

    • Nov. 10, 2016: Two days after Trump won the election, the president-elect meets with Obama at the White House and the outgoing president encourages the incoming president not to hire Flynn as an adviser.

    • Jan. 3, 2017: Strzok and Page engage in the text messages about Obama’s daily briefing and the concerns about giving the Flynn intercept cuts to the White House.

    • Jan. 4, 2017: Lead agent in Flynn Crossfire Razor probe prepares closing memo recommending the case be shut down for lack of derogatory evidence. Strzok texts agent asking him to stop the closing memo because the “7th floor” leadership of the FBI is now involved.

    • Jan. 5, 2017: Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates attends Russia briefing with Obama at the White House and is stunned to learn Obama already knows about the Flynn-Kislyak intercept. Then-FBI Director James Comey claims Clapper told the president, but Clapper has denied telling Obama.

    • Jan. 5–23, 2017: FBI prepares to conduct an interview of Flynn. The discussions lead Priestap, the assistant director, to openly question in his handwritten notes whether the bureau was “playing games” and trying to get Flynn to lie so “we can prosecute him or get him fired.”

    • Jan. 24, 2017: FBI conducts interview with Flynn.

    Investigators are trying to determine whether Obama asked for the Flynn intercept or it was offered to him and by whom. They also want to know how many times Comey and Obama talked about Flynn in December 2016 and January 2017.

    “We need to determine what motivated the FBI on Jan. 4, 2017 to overrule its own agent who believed Flynn was innocent and the probe should be closed,” one investigator said.

  • NIH Director: Can't Rule Out COVID-19 'Isolated And Studied' In Wuhan Lab
    NIH Director: Can’t Rule Out COVID-19 ‘Isolated And Studied’ In Wuhan Lab

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 22:25

    The Director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) can be added to the growing chorus of rational voices who are open to the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 could have escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) – where scientists infamous for creating hybrid bat coronaviruses that can infect humans swear they have nothing to do with the current outbreak.

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    NIH Director Francis Collins

    NIH Director Francis Collins says that while he believes coronavirus was “absolutely not” genetically engineered, he cannot rule out the possibility that it escaped from the Wuhan lab.

    Whether [the coronavirus] could have been in some way isolated and studied in this laboratory in Wuhan, we have no way of knowing,” Collins told Politico on Wednesday. “Nature created this virus, and has proven once again to be the most effective bioterrorist,” he added.

    In April, WIV vice director Zhiming Yuan told Chinese state broadcaster CGTN, “there is no way this virus came from us,” according to NBC News. “We have a strict regulatory regime and code of conduct of research, so we are confident.”

    Did the Beijing laboratory which had two SARS escape incidents follow the same ‘regulatory regime’ we wonder?

    President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have both repeatedly claimed that the virus may have emerged from the WIV, while the so-called ‘five eyes’ intelligence agencies (US, UK, New Zealand, Australia and Canada) are investigating the origins of the virus – and in particular are “looking closely at the work of a senior scientist at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Peng Zhou,” as part of a joint international investigation into the origins of COVID-19, according to the Daily Telegraph.

    Meanwhile the Office of the Director of National Intelligence confirmed weeks ago that the US government is participating in the investigation, though there is no reason to believe the virus was manmade or genetically altered.

    Collins refused to comment on his agency’s recent — and controversial — decision to pull funding from researchers studying how coronaviruses spread from bats to people. In late April the NIH told the EcoHealth Alliance, whose collaborators included scientists at the Wuhan virology lab, that its project did not “align with the program goals and agency priorities.”

    Prominent scientific societies and 77 Nobel laureates have asked the administration to investigate why the nonprofit group’s grant was terminated, alleging that the decision was made for political, rather than scientific, reasons. The NIH awards grants using a merit-based system in which researchers evaluate the work of their peers, and ending a grant early is unusual. –Politico

    Zero Hedge exposed Zhou’s involvement in bat research in January, along with studies by his colleague, “bat woman” Shi Zhengli. As we reported in February, Shi co-authored a controversial 2015 paper  which described the creation of a new virus by combining a coronavirus found in Chinese horseshoe bats with another that causes human-like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in mice. This research sparked a huge debate at the time over whether engineering lab variants of viruses with possible pandemic potential is worth the risks.

    Nature.com responded with concern, penning a 2015 rebuke , that reinforce suspicions that bat coronaviruses capable of directly infecting humans (rather than first needing to evolve in an intermediate animal host) may be more common than previously thought.

    Collins says he “seriously hopes” that if China develops a COVID-19 vaccine before the United States, that tensions between the two nations “wouldn’t be a dominant factor” in whether the US would have access to the treatment.

    That’s assuming, of course, that a vaccine arrives.

  • Reopening Isn't About Haircuts, It's About Relieving Human Suffering
    Reopening Isn’t About Haircuts, It’s About Relieving Human Suffering

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 22:05

    Authored by Randy Hicks via InsideSources.com,

    Georgia recently began the long process of reopening its economy in the wake of what it is hoped will be the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Beginning in late April, certain categories of businesses were allowed to open in Georgia, including restaurants and barber shops. The encouraging news is that infection rates have not spiked and, instead, are flattening and even declining.

    Many are concerned that we’re moving too early, too fast — and that safety will take a back seat. That worry is understandable. The toll of the virus in suffering and loss of life is indescribable, as thousands of families are affected in ways they will never forget.

    On the other side, many are clamoring for even quicker action to get people back to work.

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    In truth, both sides have it right. Our first priority should be health. Clearly, that trumps all. But a key aspect of health is not just avoiding a virus, but the full spectrum of human well-being and flourishing. And to achieve that, we can’t afford to remain on lockdown much longer.

    We clearly know the economic devastation wrought by the virus: About half of low-income households have reported job or wage loss due to the coronavirus. These job losses could be felt for years as families struggle to get back on their feet — or are never able to at all, plunging them into poverty.

    The toll is real. I’m thinking of young moms like Jessica (not her real name to protect her identity), who had been living in her car with her small child as a result of work cutbacks and being evicted. Stories like this one are countless.

    But what about the toll on mental health and general well-being? The picture is beginning to emerge, and it’s not pretty. In fact, we are facing a public mental health crisis.

    recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that more than half of U.S. adults (56 percent) report that worry related to the coronavirus outbreak has caused them stress-induced symptoms like insomnia, poor appetite or overeating, or frequent headaches or stomach aches.

    That’s only the beginning. We have also seen the effects of social isolation in a 1,000 percent increase in calls to distress hotlines in April alone.

    Rates of substance abuse and suicide will doubtless skyrocket. One analysis predicts that if the United States reaches Depression-era level unemployment rates, we could see 18,000 additional suicides and additional overdose deaths of 22,000.

    The Well Being Trust recently released a report estimating the pandemic could lead to 75,000 additional “deaths of despair” from drug and alcohol abuse and suicide.

    During this lockdown, people are missing the ingredients that make for a flourishing life: community, relationships, purpose and belonging. And the truth is that, for many Americans, a major way they experience these benefits is through a job. It’s where we find community, socialize and discover a sense of meaning.

    A job is about so much more than just a paycheck.

    We know that human beings function best when they are involved with meaningful work. Until this point, the dialogue on reopening has largely focused on “essential” vs. “non-essential” jobs.

    But every job is essential for the person who holds it. And not just from a financial standpoint: It’s one key gateway to what makes life meaningful for many of us.

    Protecting public health and getting people back into their jobs and communities are not mutually exclusive priorities. We can, and must, do both. We can be sensitive to loss of life and human suffering during this pandemic.

    But we also must acknowledge the pain of those whose means of surviving economically has been shattered.

  • Satellite Images Confirm Rapid Chinese Military Expansion On Disputed Indian Border
    Satellite Images Confirm Rapid Chinese Military Expansion On Disputed Indian Border

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 21:45

    A new report in the Asia-based online tech journal Insider Paper cites open source satellite images to confirm the latest widespread reporting on the major Chinese PLA troop build-up underway along disputed Sino-Indian border regions.

    The report cites the following via a reputable open-source satellite imagery analyst

    According to a few satellite images published by a local Indian news publication, the Chinese troops have commenced the expansion of its airbase, 200 km from Pangong Lake, in Ladakh. The images, also showing Ngari Gunsa airport in Tibet, originated from open-source intelligence expert @detresfa_, an analyst with ShadowBreak Intl.

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    “The first image shows how the territory originally looked. However, the second image clearly shows massive construction activity going on in the territory.”

    According to the report, this suggests a significant and rapid Chinese military build-up in the past months along the contested border region amid what Indian media has widely reported since this weekend to be PLA forces digging into fortified positions.  

    Importantly, the strategic base is a mere 200km away from Pangong lake, where recent skirmishes between Chinese and Indian border patrols took place on May 5th-6th.

    The Insider Paper report continues, based on satellite analysis: “The expansion has included something that looks more like a secondary tarmac to combat aircraft or taxi-track. Also, the third image shows a line-up of four fighter jets. They are either J-11 or J-16 fighters of the Chinese PLA Air Force.”

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    The high altitude airport in Tibet, among the highest in the world, is a dual-use military and civil airport which appears to have undergone major expansion during the same period of increased border skirmishes with Indian troops

    The major Indian broadcast station NDTV also republished the satellite photos:

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    Over the past weekend Indian media began reporting that thousands of PLA troops have now moved into Ladakh’s disputed Galwan river area, and at multiple locations in eastern Ladakh.

    Sporadic but fierce clashes have occurred going back to the 1960’s along the shared but pretty much completely unmarked 2,100 mile border, which often involves literal fist-fights among opposing troops and border patrol guards. 

    The satellite images appear to confirm Chinese troop movements along and inside of the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh:

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    And The Guardian also said on Wednesday: “Thousands of Chinese People’s Liberation (PLA) troops are reported to have moved into sensitive areas along the eastern Ladokh border, setting up tents and stationing vehicles and heavy machinery in what India considers to be its territory.”

    The escalating crisis has grabbed the White House’s attention, with President Trump issuing a surprise tweet early Wednesday which said“We have informed both India and China that the United States is ready, willing and able to mediate or arbitrate their now raging border dispute.”

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    China expands airbase near Ladakh, including placing advanced fighter jets on tarmac.

    It’s a fast escalating situation that FP recently noted could explode into major conflict between two nuclear armed powers.

  • JPMorgan Finds Bitcoin Trades At "Intrinstic Value" As Goldman Throws Up All Over Cryptocurrency
    JPMorgan Finds Bitcoin Trades At “Intrinstic Value” As Goldman Throws Up All Over Cryptocurrency

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 21:25

    So much changes in just over two years. Back in late 2017 and early 2018, Goldman Sachs emerged as one of the most fervent adopters of bitcoin (perhaps because it presented at least some opportunity to trade vol in a market where the VIX was single digits), and even hired a head cryptocurrency trader . Then the cryptocurrency market crashed and despite fits and starts, has failed to recover its December 2017 highs.

    Fast forward to today when Goldman prompted howls of outrage among the bitcoin faithful when the bank released a multi-strategy report that took some pot shots at crypto, saying among other things, that “we do not recommend Bitcoin on a strategic or tactical basis for clients’ investment portfolios even though its volatility might lend itself to momentum oriented traders.” The report also took the completely unoriginal track to compare Bitcoin’s rise, if not so much fall, to the Tulip mania of the 1600s in the Netherlands, although one look at the chart below suggest that such comparisons are woefully inaccurate with most bitcoin bulls laughing at repeated rumors of bitcoin’s demise.

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    Goldman also issued several rebuttals against the merits frequently cited by crypto fans that aim to hold up the superiority of the digital tokens. As Bloomberg notes, Goldman said that cryptocurrencies are not an asset class, they do not generate cash flow or earnings and do not provide consistent diversification benefits, nor is there evidence they are an inflation hedge.

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    Of course none of that is news to anyone by now, with bitcoin increasingly seen as a limit-supply store of value and an alternative to fiat in a world where the money supply is exploding. Just ask Paul Tudor Jones, who last month said he’s buying Bitcoin as a hedge against the inflation he sees emerging from the Fed’s money-printing, even telling clients that bitcoin reminds him of “the role gold played in the 1970s”.

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    Preempting Goldman, PTJ, who said “I am not a hard-money nor a crypto nut”, also laid out the various key verticals that set aside bitcoin, including Purchasing Power; Trustworthiness, Liquidity and Portability (his full note is below), and compared the total value of various financial assets showing just how significant the growth potential for bitcoin was in a world of wider adoption.

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    All of this left one of the world’s greatest traders to conclude that, contrary to Goldman’s conclusion, “at the end of the day, the best profit-maximizing strategy is to own the fastest horse. Just own the best performer and not get wed to an intellectual side that might leave you weeping in the performance dust because you thought you were smarter than the market. If I am forced to forecast, my bet is it will be Bitcoin.”

    Finally, let’s not forget, it is Goldman…

    Goldman, and its catastrophic predictive track record aside – especially since the bank dumped most of its iconic prop traders and decided to become a subprime lender and issuers of credit cards- aside, we found a far more interesting take in the latest Flows and Liquidity report from JPM’s Nick Panigirtzoglou who analyzed something far more valuable to both fans and enemies of bitcoin: its intrinsic value.

    As the JPM strategist writes, “ahead of the halving of the bitcoin block reward from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25, we updated our intrinsic value framework for bitcoin and used it to infer that markets effectively priced in a 25% decline in the amount spent on energy per day assuming market participants are rational and prices forward looking. How have things developed in the time since the halving event?”

    To answer that question, the derivative strategist recapped his model for estimating this “intrinsic value.” The approach taken to estimate a quantifiable intrinsic value for Bitcoin was to effectively treat it as a commodity and base it on the marginal cost of production. Mining cryptocurrencies consumes electricity, which results in a real-world cost incurred in nominal currency terms. In principle, a market price above that cost should induce miners to increase resources to mine coins, bringing the cost of mining higher until the marginal cost approaches the market price, while a price below that cost should induce higher cost producers to exit the market lowering the overall cost until it again approaches the marginal cost. The methodology was adopted by Hayes (2018), which first estimates the daily cost of production as a function of the computational power employed, cost of electricity, and energy efficiency of hardware. It then divides the daily cost of production by the expected number of bitcoins produced daily, estimated as a function of the block reward, hashing power employed and difficulty, to get a marginal cost of production per Bitcoin.

    Long-story short, the market price and JPM’s updated estimate of the intrinsic value of Bitcoin are shown in the chart below..

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    … while the ratio of actual to intrinsic price is in the following chart.

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    Given the halving of the bitcoin rewards that took place on May 11th, the intrinsic value estimate effectively doubled. Ahead of the halving event, JPM argued that, assuming market participants are rational and that the price is forward looking, the actual price trading 25% below what the intrinsic price would be after the event suggested markets effectively implying a significant decline in mining activity.

    How have things developed since the halving? As the next chart shows, there has been a more than 20% decline in the hash rate on the bitcoin network since the halving event, similar to the one in magnitude that occurred during the nearly 50% collapse in bitcoin prices from late Feb to mid-March.

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    Moreover, the decline appears to have taken place against a backdrop of an improvement in average efficiency of mining hardware, as energy consumption per GH/s has declined by more than 15% from the day before the halving event according to estimates from Digiconomist, which would be consistent the idea that miners with less efficient rigs and/or in higher cost locations would in the short term bear the brunt of the decline in mining activity.

    As JPM concludes, “the net effect of the two has been that the gap between our intrinsic value estimate and the market price has now effectively closed.” In other words, a price of $9-10K is right around there bitcoin should be trading, something which the Goldman report failed to mention.

    Intrinsic value of bitcoin aside, JPM looked at how institutions are positioned vis-a-vis the crytpocurrency. JPM found that the collapse in the market value of bitcoin in early March also saw a contraction in open interest of both bitcoin futures and options, which initially was slow to recover. However, in the run-up to the halving event, the open interest of both options and futures increased sharply, with option open interest in particular making new highs.

    Moreover, futures open interest appears to have recovered faster for CME contracts than crypto exchanges, which saw a steep increase in open interest not just in dollar terms (partly due to the rise in prices since the March lows) but also increasing to 70% above its previous peak in bitcoin terms.

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    And the CME bitcoin options contracts launched in January this year, where aggregate open interest after an initially encouraging start had largely remained below $20mn, rose from around $13mn at the start of the May to around $170mn in recent days.

    This suggests that, all else equal, the institutional adoption of bitcoin is starting to ramp up aggressively, just as Paul Tudor Jones predicted it would.

    For those eager to read the PTJ report, it’s attached below.

  • SoftBank's Vision Fund Considers Slashing 10% Of Workforce 
    SoftBank’s Vision Fund Considers Slashing 10% Of Workforce 

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 21:05

    We recently noted that SoftBank Group’s international arm slashed 10% of its employees in early May as it reported more substantial losses in 1Q20 than it had anticipated, mainly due to WeWork, though its investments in Vision Fund. 

    It now appears SoftBank’s $100 billion Vision Fund is considering an employee reduction program that could slash upwards of 10% of the entire fund’s workforce, according to Bloomberg sources. 

    SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, also the founder of Vision Fund, has had a string of bad investments since the WeWork implosion in 2019. The outbreak of the coronavirus essentially sealed WeWork’s fate after a string of blowups among other SoftBank and Vision Fund portfolio companies.

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    Masayoshi Son

    Vision Fund has 500 employees, with many based in London, San Francisco, and Tokyo. The cuts are expected to be on all levels, one source said. The fund manages 80 portfolio companies, but due to the downturn in the global economy, 15 of the fund’s startups could go bankrupt. 

    The fund has liquidated some of its holdings, halving its stake in dog walking startup Wag Labs last year. Son has said he’ll sell $42 billion in assets to finance stock buybacks and reduce debt loads. Bloomberg notes Softbank is selling shares of its Alibaba Group Holding and is trying to negotiate a deal to sell its $20 billion T-Mobile US stake. 

    In a matter of months, Son, once heralded as the greatest momentum investor, has turned out to be “the greater fool” — as his collapsing credibility fell as quick as WeWork’s valuation. 

    Soon investors will be calling cycle tops the “WeWork Omen.” 

  • Rickards: The Coin-Toss Election
    Rickards: The Coin-Toss Election

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 20:45

    Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

    The political climate is fragile and feverish, with the nation amid a crisis that is both fast-changing and unparalleled in living memory.

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    The biggest change in my election forecast is that Trump’s chances of reelection in November have plunged from 74% (the pre-COVID forecast) to 50% as of today.

    This does not mean Trump will lose; he could very well win. But it will be a very close election.

    Deciding the outcome between Trump and Biden as of now is basically a coin toss. Many factors, some foreseeable and some unforeseen, could tip the balance.

    Trump’s strengths are that he is an excellent campaigner, has enormous amounts of mo‌ney for the campaign and seems to have unlimited stores of energy. He also has the power of incumbency, which usually propels a sitting president to a second term.

    Trump’s weaknesses are the depth of the New Depression and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Amost no one blames Trump for the outbreak, but many found his response belated and overly optimistic in the initial stages. He did some things right (the China travel ban), but many responses were bungled (defective testing kits, shortages of masks and protective clothing, shortages of ventilators).

    In stages, these mistakes were overcome. Masks and protective clothing were mass-produced. Ventilators were surged to those locations that most needed them. New hospital beds were made available through Navy hospital ships and temporary hospitals built by the Army Corps of Engineers. Testing kits gradually became available, although there is still a severe shortage.

    Instead of taking credit in a measured way for these positive developments, Trump wasted time in petty disputes with corrupt journalists. Those fights might be OK in the normal political arena, but there’s nothing normal about a pandemic. Trump didn’t seem to know the difference and alienated even his supporters in the process with his pontificating and sideshow antics.

    These Trump deficiencies (despite many positive accomplishments) began to show up in the polls.

    Large employment losses in states that Trump must carry, especially Pennsylvania, will not help Trump’s chances in November. On the other hand, if Trump can reopen the economy and recover some of these losses, he may benefit from a positive trend even if net losses remain.

    What about Joe Biden?

    Biden may have pulled even with Trump in the election horse race, but he’s not a sure thing by any means. Before Biden can even turn to the campaign against Trump, he must still try to obtain unity in his own party.

    Bernie Sanders withdrew from the race, which essentially guaranteed the nomination for Biden. But will the “Bernie Bros” actually turn out on Election Day? Key components of the Democratic base might not be motivated to vote.

    The left wants a Biden administration ban on anyone who has worked on or near Wall Street, the fossil fuel industry, the health insurance sector and the lobbying world, to name a few.

    In short, the price that Bernie Sanders’ supporters are demanding from Biden may well make Biden unelectable in key swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

    If Biden does not embrace the socialist agenda, his lost support from the Sanders movement may make him unelectable for other reasons. Biden is between a rock and a hard place, and the Bernie Bros intend to keep him there in order to pursue their goals.

    One way for Biden to appease the Bernie Sanders movement without going all-in on the progressive agenda is to choose a progressive running mate. In the eyes of progressives, the right running mate will be able to “keep an eye” on Biden and pursue the Bernie agenda inside the White House even if the specifics are not shouted from the rooftops.

    Here’s a summary of the struggle going on inside the Biden camp regarding a VP choice as reported by Tal Axelrod for The Hill on April 19, in an article titled “Progressives Look for Concession From Biden With Running Mate”:

    “Joe Biden absolutely has to pick a progressive champion as his VP pick. He has to unify the party, and that’s the key,” Charles Chamberlain, head of Democracy for America, told The Hill. “What we saw during the primary is… that we have two major factions of this party, the corporate wing, more establishment Democrats, and there is [the] progressive, ascendant left. And he absolutely has to choose from that progressive left to unify the party.”

    Biden could pick from a number of progressive women to serve as his VP. Among the most prominent contenders who have been floated are [Elizabeth] Warren and Stacey Abrams, the former Georgia gubernatorial candidate and state House minority leader.

    Both have openly expressed interest in the role, with Abrams saying she would be an “excellent” running mate for Biden and Warren confirming that she would accept an offer to be his No. 2.

    Amy Klobuchar, the Minnesota senator, has also been mentioned as a leading candidate.

    There are others, but these three have gotten the most attention.

    But there’s no free lunch for Biden. The choice of Stacey Abrams for vice president would undoubtedly rally progressive and minority voters to turn out for Biden. That’s critical. But it helps Biden in places he is highly likely to win anyway such as California and New York.

    Abrams’ ultra-leftist views and strident persona would drive away many moderates in critical swing states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania and possibly tip those states to Trump.

    What we have today is a too-close-to-call election and six long months to go before Election Day.

    Trump is aided by a solid base and a well-organized campaign strategy. Biden is aided by an electoral vote head start in big states like California and New York and a friendly media that will not criticize his many shortcomings.

    The Democrats may hold a “digital” convention and keep Biden under wraps as much as possible until the October debates (where his cognitive decline may be difficult to disguise).

    Republicans want to get the economy open for business and show some growth in the aftermath of a second-quarter collapse.

    But there is one potential development that could move the odds in Trump’s favor…

    Remember the “Russia collusion” accusations against Trump? The accusation was that he colluded with Russians to interfere in the 2016 presidential election. Trump campaign aides and early appointees such as Gen. Michael Flynn, Carter Page, George Papadopoulos and others were all said to be in on the conspiracy to “steal the election.”

    There was only one problem with these claims. None of them were true. Multiple congressional investigations all reached the conclusion that there was no merit to the claims. The two-year, $30 million Mueller investigation found no evidence of Russian collusion by Trump or his team.

    Multiple internal reviews and inspector general reports not only found no collusion, but also revealed extensive wrongdoing by the FBI and the U.S. intelligence community when it came to false representations, doctored reports, illegal surveillance of American citizens and other egregious abuse of constitutional rights.

    Well, a day of reckoning may be coming soon. U.S. attorney John Durham has been conducting a multiyear investigation of his own at the request of the U.S. attorney general, William Barr. This investigation targets the wrongdoers in the Obama administration Justice Department, intelligence community and diplomatic corps.

    High-profile subjects of inquiry include former FBI head James Comey, former National Security Adviser Susan Rice, former U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power and many other former high-ranking officials.

    Guess what? Joe Biden has been listed as someone who requested and was privy to these reports, which raises serious questions.

    The Durham investigation is criminal, so a wave of indictments and prosecutions may be coming soon. The exact timing is uncertain, but mid-July seems a likely date for announcement of the results of the investigation and any indictments.

    Attorney General William Barr said Monday that he doesn’t expect criminal charges to be filed against Biden (or Obama). But Biden’s involvement in the Russiagate scandal could have implications for the election. We’ll see.

    Investors have their hands full today dealing with the Wuhan virus, the new depression and an unsteady stock market. Now you can add legal fireworks to the list of things that may disrupt markets.

  • Here Is The Best Advance Indicator If A Second Wave Of Coronavirus Is Coming
    Here Is The Best Advance Indicator If A Second Wave Of Coronavirus Is Coming

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 20:44

    As public health officials and investors search for reliable leading indicators for the ‘second wave’ of infections that Dr. Fauci and the WHO insist is right around the corner, one team of researchers has determined that the answers might be found under the ground…

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    To wit, a team of researchers from Yale University in New Haven, Conn. published a paper earlier this month on their studies of SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in the sewage in the Greater New Haven area. In the abstract of their report, the team determined that “when adjusted for the time lag, the virus RNA concentrations were highly correlated with the COVID-19 epidemiological curve (R2 =0.99) and local hospital admissions (R2 =0.99). SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations were a seven-day leading indicator ahead of compiled COVID-19 testing data and led local hospital admissions data by three days.”

    The search for a reliable leading indicator is critical for developing an effective policy response, since the most closely watched data (reports on the number of newly diagnosed cases) is a lagging indicator, since tests typically aren’t run on an individual until symptoms of the virus have already started to appear.

    Scientists have already proven that SARS-CoV-2 RNA is present in the human waste of COVID-19 patients. That then seeps into the wastewater in a given community’s collection system. An analysis of RNA concentrations in waste can, according to the researchers, “provide information on the prevalence and dynamics of infection for entire populations.”

    By analyzing wastewater from a sewage plant that serves a four-municipality area (pop ~200,000 residents), the researchers applied several data processing techniques to smooth the data and allow for fair comparisons between the sewage data and data collected by the local hospital system in New Haven.

    Like many other scientific specialties, the field of wastewater epidemiology existed before the pandemic. But the global outbreak has allowed scientists to expand on these methods in real time in the hope that it can help predict outbreaks before they overwhelm hospital systems.

    New Haven COVID-19 epidemic suggest that these data may provide useful epidemiological insights (Figure 1C). SARS-CoV-2 RNA sludge concentrations were quantitatively compared with data that are commonly used to track the community progression of COVID-19 including hospital admissions (Figure 2A,B) and COVID-19 compiled testing data for the four municipalities (New Haven, East Haven, Hamden, and Woodbridge, CT) served by the ESWPAF (Figure 2C). All three measures traced the initial wave of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the New Haven metropolitan area. Applying Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOWESS) to the data and rescaling enables comparison (Figure 2A,B). The virus RNA time course peaked 3 days earlier than hospital admissions (April 9 versus April 12) and a cross correlation analysis revealed a correlation coefficient (R=0.996) between smoothed RNA and hospital data when the latter was shifted 3 days forward.

    The team found that the “peak” level of virus RNA arrived 3 days before hospitals reported their ‘peak’ number of patients.

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    “Normally when I tell people I work with poo, they’re not super-interested,” Stephanie Loeb, a postdoctoral researcher at Stanford University, told NPR. But “there’s really a lot of information in our waste.”

    Read the full study below:

    2020.05.19.20105999v1.full by Zerohedge on Scribd

  • Elon Musk And Grimes Change Their Newborn's Name From "X Æ A-12" To "X Æ A-Xii"
    Elon Musk And Grimes Change Their Newborn’s Name From “X Æ A-12” To “X Æ A-Xii”

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 20:25

    For those of you wondering whether or not Elon Musk and his baby mama Grimes would come to their senses about the name they chose for their new child, “X Æ A-12”, we have both good news and bad news.

    The good news is that they’ve decided to change the child’s name.

    The bad news is that they’re changing it from “X Æ A-12” to “X Æ A-Xii”. That should prevent the child from a lifetime of being bullied and help them lead a totally normal life now, right?

    Grimes made the announcement on her Instagram on Sunday, giving no explanation for the change other than:

    “Roman numerals. Looks better tbh”.

    If you say so, Grimes.

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    Prior to that, Grimes, in trying to explain the name of her child had “explained that Æ was her ‘elven spelling’ of AI (for artificial intelligence) and “X” stood for ‘the unknown variable’,” according to The Guardian

    “It’s just X, like the letter X. Then AI. Like how you said the letter A then I,” Grimes tried to explain on Instagram last week, foreshadowing a conversation her child is likely going to be forced to have every single day for their entire life. 

    “I mean it’s just X, the letter X. And then the Æ is, like, pronounced ‘Ash’… and then A-12. A-12 is my contribution,” an emasculated Musk tried explaining to podcast host Joe Rogan earlier in May. 

    This means that Musk’s “contribution” of “A-12” has now officially been usurped by Grimes’ change.

    Musk had actually complimented Grimes on her name choice for the child on Rogan’s podcast: “First of all, my partner is the one that, actually, mostly, came up with the name. Yeah, she’s great at names.”

    The internet mostly disagreed:

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  • NSA's Social Network Mapping is More Vast, Omnipresent, & Horrifying Than Snowden Revealed
    NSA’s Social Network Mapping is More Vast, Omnipresent, & Horrifying Than Snowden Revealed

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 20:05

    Authored by Jake Anderson via TheMindUnleashed.com,

    Most people know by now about the surveillance abuses perpetrated by the NSA earlier this century, but a new book about Edward Snowden suggests that the metadata collection programs introduced to us through previous whistleblowers and disclosures are part of a “live, ever-updating social graph of the US” that is ongoing and far vaster than we previously imagined.

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    The revelations come from journalist Barton Gellman, who described the content of his new book Dark Mirror: Edward Snowden and the American Surveillance State for Wired. The article, entitled “Inside the NSA’s Secret Tool for Mapping Your Social Network,” catalogs Gellman’s attempts to reveal more details about the programs Snowden first disclosed to the world.

    What he found shocked him and, he says, represents an ongoing existential threat to American citizens.

    Gellman says that originally he wanted to understand more about the logistics of the NSA phone records. The Snowden archive hints at but does not explain the details of the agency’s project pipelines.

    The main thoroughfare of data collection, Stellarwind, was a domestic surveillance program launched by Vice President Dick Cheney only weeks after 9/11. He mandated that all operatives and subordinates conceal the program from FISA Court judges and Congress, stamping it with the most covert of government classifications, ECI, “exceptionally controlled information.”

    Stellarwind facilitated Mainway, the NSA’s prized social network mapping tool which conscripted telephone data companies like AT&T and Verizon into secretive–and financially lucrative–data collection contracts negotiated by Special Source Operations.

    But even this was just the tip of the iceberg.

    The Mainway program codified two important but (until now) obfuscated surveillance and data mining objectives: contact chaining and precomputation.

    Contact Chaining

    While the NSA long maintained that their surveillance programs merely stored untraced metadata that could help investigate the activities of known terrorist operatives, we now know that the agency was actively leveraging and exploiting the data to build an almost mind-bogglingly complex, next-generation social graph. As described by Gellman, this tool combined the concepts of “six degrees of separation” (or six degrees of Kevin Bacon, if you prefer) and a pre-COVID19 model of contact tracing.

    Termed contact chaining and first deployed during the manhunt and investigation of Boston bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, a new suite of software tools used the NSA’s intercepted communications (read, our personal information), including voice, video, email and chat text, attachments, pager messages, etc. to build a cutting-edge form of data analysis that can algorithmically parse data records to illustrate indirect relationships between any and all intelligence assets (read, us).

    According to Gellman, Mainway turned into “the queen of metadata, foreign and domestic, designed to find patterns that content did not reveal…[and] identify, track, store, manipulate and update relationships” to create a global graph, an integrated graphical map, representing the “movements and communications” of virtually everyone on Earth.

    Named “the Big Awesome Graph,” or “the BAG” for short, this tool was the principal data harvesting tool in the umbrella directive of “Large Access Exploitation.” It “mapped the call records as “nodes” and “edges” on a grid so large that the human mind, unaided, could not encompass it.”

    Precomputation

    The NSA’s Mainway program sought to use its newly and somewhat hastily assembled software to continuously contact chain profiles on all global citizens. The FBI commandeered over a billion new records each day from the telephone companies and the NSA ingested that info to “get a head start on everyone.”

    Termed precomputation, the idea was and is to create a “constant, complex…7×24…live, ever-updating social graph,” called Graph-in-Memory, of every US citizen and a large number of non-citizens and international citizens.

    Gellerman writes:

    “All kinds of secrets – social, medical, political, professional – were precomputed, 24/7…a database that was preconfigured to map anyone’s life at the touch of a button.”

    He maintains that only 22 top officials had the authority to order a so-called contact chain. However, the dangers of such power abound.

    In its post-911 sprint to to dominate the global communications infrastructure,” the NSA opened a veritable Pandora’s box, whereby “governments at all levels [may use] the power of the state most heavy-handedly, sometimes illegally, to monitor communities disadvantaged by poverty, race, religion, ethnicity, and immigration status.”

    Gellman observes that “nearly anyone in the developed world can be linked to at least one fact in a computer database that an adversary could use for blackmail, discrimination, harassment, or financial or identity theft.”

    “The latent power of new inventions,” Gellman writes, “no matter how repellent at first, does not lie forever dormant in government armories.”

    In other words, if you’re worried about contact tracing in the age of Covid-19, worry no more: that ship has long sailed.

  • George Floyd Protests Spread: 1000s Block LA Freeway, Minneapolis Ablaze Amid Looting
    George Floyd Protests Spread: 1000s Block LA Freeway, Minneapolis Ablaze Amid Looting

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 20:03

    Update (2225ET): Tear gas is flowing in Minneapolis as night 2 of the George Floyd protests begin:

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    Update (22:00ET):  The protests that started yesterday in Minneapolis over the death of George Floyd, and escalated today including the looting of at least one Target store, have sparked a violent anti-police protest in LA with thousands blocking the 101 Freeway and attacking cop cars.

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    And not only are they refusing to obey Governor Newsom’s social distancing rules, hardly anyone is wearing a mask!

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    Update (20:00 ET): Social unrest continues to worsen on Wednesday evening as protesters smash the windows of a local Target and have now started to loot the store. 

     FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul’s Karen Scullin is documenting the breaking story:

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    Video emerges of inside the Target

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    WCCO CBS Minnesota posts a “raw video” showing scenes outside of the Target

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    Watch Live: Protests continue in South Minneapolis in response to the death of George Floyd

    Live at riot in Minneapolis Minnesota

    Here’s another live feed of the chaos 

    The situation is quickly deteriorating in Minneapolis — as the next big threat, as we highlighted earlier today, is that unrest could spread to other cities, such as Baltimore… 

    * * *

    Update (11:55 ET): Former vice president Joe Biden has been vocal about the death of George Floyd in the last 24-hours. Videos had surfaced on the internet of Floyd pinned to the ground by police officers shortly before he died on Monday. 

    Here’s the video of the incident

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    On Tuesday night, during the protests in Minneapolis, Biden tweeted: “George Floyd deserved better and his family deserves justice. His life mattered. I’m grateful for the swift action in Minneapolis to fire the officers involved — they must be held responsible for their egregious actions. The FBI should conduct a thorough investigation.”

    Biden was heard on a virtual meeting with Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf Wednesday morning, where he addressed the death of George Floyd. 

    Axios provides a breakdown of what was said (Biden referenced the 2014 death of Eric Garner, an unarmed black man who died after a New York police officer used an illegal chokehold on him during an arrest): 

    • “Watching his life be taken in the same manner, echoing nearly the same words as Eric Garner more than five years ago — “I can’t breathe” — is a tragic reminder that this was not an isolated incident, but part of an ingrained systemic cycle that exists in this country,” Biden said.
    • “It cuts at the very heart of our sacred belief that all Americans are equal in rights and in dignity.”
    • “And it sends a very clear message to the black community and black lives that are under threat every day.”

    Here’s Biden speaking 

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    * * *

    High unemployment, crashed economy, and now social unrest rears its ugly head as America descends into chaos ahead of the summer months.

    Across social media, pictures and videos coming from the streets of Minneapolis on Tuesday evening are absolutely stunning. Protests broke out following the death of George Floyd, a black man who died in police custody a day earlier.

    This reminds us of the 2014 Ferguson Riots and 2015 Baltimore Riots, in both incidents, the trigger for unrest was a young black man killed while in police custody. Unlike 2014/15, the economy has now plunged into a depression and tens of millions of people are unemployed, as some have to resort to food banks because they’ve fallen into instant poverty, which all suggests tensions are already running high as warmer weather entices people to step outside. With no work, why not riot? 

    Shown below, police fired rubber bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades at protesters. The initial demonstrations started peacefully than quickly got out of hand. Some hurled blunt objects at law enforcement while damaging police cars. 

    The early hours of the protest were peaceful, hundreds, and maybe even more than a thousand people, were seen marching across 38th Street. Some carried signs that read “Justice for George Floyd,” “I can’t breathe,” and “Black Lives Matter.”

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    The size of the demonstration quickly increased in the late evening.

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    CNN’s Omar Jimenez tweeted: “You could say there’s a bit of a crowd gathering in Minneapolis.” 

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    And then all hell broke out when protesters attacked Minneapolis 3rd Police Precinct.

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    Protesters destroying police cars

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    “It’s real ugly. The police have to understand that this is the climate they have created,” a protester told WCCO-TV. 

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    U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minnesota, tweeted: “Shooting rubber bullets and tear gas at unarmed protesters when there are children present should never be tolerated. Ever. What is happening tonight in our city is shameful. Police need to exercise restraint, and our community needs space to heal.”

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    In late March, we described how “social bomb” could flare-up in the Western world, and even reported that President Trump signed an executive order that allows for the call-up of up to a million troops. Why so many soldiers? Well, we’re not entirely sure, it could be due to threats of social unrest that are usually seen in economic downturns. 

    Now here’s a big risk: If unrest spreads to other cities, like Baltimore, where tensions against police are already high, then it appears the Trump administration has a major problem on their hands ahead of the election. 

  • What Could Come Next Regarding Hong Kong: Here Is The Nuclear Option
    What Could Come Next Regarding Hong Kong: Here Is The Nuclear Option

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 19:56

    Authored by Ye Xie, macro commentator for Bloomberg

    Wednesday’s trading further proves that economic re-opening trumps rising tensions between the U.S. and China. The new battleground between the two superpowers over Hong Kong is a regional, rather than global, risk.

    The U.S. markets shrugged off the Trump administration’s threat to revoke Hong Kong’s special trading status Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 2%.

    Value stocks and small caps continued to outperform, pointing to optimism toward an economic recovery.

    In comparison, the $1.1 billion iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF fell 1.4% in the U.S., while the Hong Kong dollar weakened in the forward market. But it’s a more muted reaction compared with the ETF’s 5% loss Friday when news broke that China was set to pass a national security law governing Hong Kong, suggesting the U.S.’s response was largely expected.

    The offshore yuan briefly matched a record low before settling down at 7.18 per dollar. Implied volatility remains fairly muted, signaling that investors are convinced there’s limited room for large depreciation as the PBOC stands to contain the fallout.

    Are markets too complacent? Maybe. But the experience last year suggests that the only thing that matters for global markets is trade and tariff-related risk. As long as the two countries refrain from slapping more tariffs on each other, things such as America’s human rights bill supporting Hong Kong and blocking Huawei’s market access are irrelevant in deciding how strong the global economy will be.

    What could come next regarding Hong Kong?

    The U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 allows the city to be exempt from Trump’s punitive tariffs on China and grants it access to sensitive technologies. In theory, the administration could revoke the previlege on both fronts.

    But as a first step, the U.S. may come out with “a lot of tough talk and financial sanctions and visa restrictions on Chinese officials who probably weren’t dumb enough to keep funds in the U.S.,” said David Loevinger, a former China specialist at the U.S. Treasury who’s now an analyst at TCW Group.

    “They will hold back some of the bigger guns like tariffs, export controls and investment restrictions until they see what the new law looks like and how it’s implemented.”

    The nuclear option would be “block Chinese banks from the U.S. dollar clearing system,” which is unlikely at this stage, according to Enodo Economics.

    Hong Kong assets will struggle amid uncertainties about the enactment of the national security law, and events including the Legislative Council elections in September. At the same time, stock valuation is inexpensive, suggesting room for large declines is limited.

  • Trump Offers To "Mediate" India & China's "Raging Border Dispute" Amid Military Build-Up
    Trump Offers To “Mediate” India & China’s “Raging Border Dispute” Amid Military Build-Up

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 19:45

    No doubt a huge surprise for both Beijing and New Delhi, locked in an escalating border dispute which in the past days has witnessed a troop build-up in multiple disputed border regions, given the historic difficulty of competing claims along the world’s longest unmarked border, President Trump on Wednesday morning offered to “mediate or arbitrate” between the two Asian powers.

    He tweeted he is “ready, willing and able” to ease the tensions which are fast being militarized in a situation that FP recently noted could explode into major conflict between two nuclear armed powers. 

    “We have informed both India and China that the United States is ready, willing and able to mediate or arbitrate their now raging border dispute,” Trump said in the early morning tweet.

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    The surprise offer, more than likely to be rejected considering Washington’s own boiling tensions with Beijing over a host of issues – the latest including Hong Kong – comes on the heels of a top American diplomat for South Asia making provocative remarks siding with India on the contested border issue.

    Outgoing State Department official Alice Wells made the provocative statements a week ago at an Atlantic Council event, saying, “There’s a method here to Chinese operations and it is that constant aggression, the constant attempt to shift the norms, to shift what is the status quo.” 

    Wells added: “That has to be resisted whether it’s in the South China Sea… or whether it’s in India’s own backyard.”

    Trump’s offer also comes after a new White House report laying out a broad strategy on China, accused Beijing of “provocative and coercive military and paramilitary activities” in the region, including Sino-Indian border areas.

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    Indian army lorry previously near Pangong Lake in Ladakh, via AP.

    Sporadic but fierce clashes have occurred going back to the 1960’s along the shared 2,100 mile border, which often involves literal fist-fights among opposing troops and border patrol guards. 

    “Thousands of Chinese People’s Liberation (PLA) troops are reported to have moved into sensitive areas along the eastern Ladokh border, setting up tents and stationing vehicles and heavy machinery in what India considers to be its territory,” The Guardian reports Wednesday.

    Over the past weekend Indian media began reporting that thousands of PLA troops have now moved into Ladakh’s disputed Galwan river area.

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    Via Quora

    Some Indian media reports have suggested multiple thousands, while a new Business Standard India report goes so far as to claim up to 10,000 Chinese soldiers are now inside India occupying the Galwan Valley while digging into fortified positions.

    Regardless, the intensifying border dispute is serious enough to have caught Trump’s attention, meaning a broader conflict or even war could be on the horizon.

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Today’s News 27th May 2020

  • Over 40% Of Brits Claim They've "Changed For The Better" During Lockdowns
    Over 40% Of Brits Claim They’ve “Changed For The Better” During Lockdowns

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 02:45

    A new study revealed that 43% of people feel they’ve “changed their ways for the better” as a result of the extra time they had during coronavirus lockdowns. Many found new habits and activities — including creating podcasts, learning to code, and exercising. 

    The study, commissioned by LG Electronics, polled nearly 2,000 British adults of how their daily lives were transformed because of the lockdowns. About half of the respondents said they would maintain the newly acquired hobbies, skills, and daily habits in a post-corona world.

    Learning new computer skills, creating podcasts, participating in online fitness classes, and walking outside were some of the top activities people turned to during lockdowns. It was increasingly evident that technology played a significant role in occupying people’s time: 54% said they couldn’t function without a computer, 64% said smartphones were critical, and 57% couldn’t do without television. 

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    “The fact that many people are forming productive and healthy new habits is testament to the nation’s ability to adjust,” Hanju Kim, IT product director at LG UK, said in a statement. 

    “The nation is working from home and has an appetite to continue working flexibly even after offices reopen. A big part of this can be attributed to technology keeping us connected,” said Kim. 

    Around 20% of respondents said they slept more during lockdowns, while 10% said they learned new things from YouTube tutorials. 

    Two-fifths of respondents believe these new habits and activities will increase their wellbeing, while one in four noticed a more comfortable life that allowed for a better routine in daily activities. About a quarter found new ways of making money during the lockdowns. 

    The research found that social distancing led to an increase in video conference calls among respondents, who used the software to connect with friends, family, and work. Roughly half said they conducted video calls more than they did before lockdowns.

    And 48% plan to keep this up in a post-corona world, or even increase this new lifestyle, suggesting how people’s daily lives will forever change and could soon result in huge economic impacts. 

    Regardless of how long the current public health crisis lasts, people working at home will result in forcing huge changes and ultimately restructuring the old economy. This could have profound impacts on corporate real estate, transportation, energy, restaurants, and many other industries. With the economy crashed, the restructuring phase has just begun, it will take several years for the recovery to play out.

  • Trump Slams Libya "Foreign Interference" & Urges "Rapid De-escalation" In Erdogan Call
    Trump Slams Libya “Foreign Interference” & Urges “Rapid De-escalation” In Erdogan Call

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

    After weeks of military gains by Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA), President Trump has called for a deescalation during his phone call with Turkey’s President Erdogan. Turkey is the GNA’s only foreign ally.

    This is bound to once again raise questions about the US position. Nominally the US is backing the GNA, but at times Trump has expressed support for their enemy, the Libyan National Army (LNA). The deescalation would be seen as bailing out the LNA from recent losses.

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    Image: AFP

    “President Trump reiterated concern over worsening foreign interference in Libya and the need for rapid de-escalation,” White House spokesman Judd Deere said in a statement.

    The LNA has a lot of foreign allies, from France and Russia to virtually the whole list of Gulf Arab states. LNA leader Khalifa Hafter, was a CIA asset in the past, and the US has criticized Russia for being too close with him, despite their own long history of backing him.

    Reuters reports:

    As the LNA has promised to respond with a massive air campaign, diplomats have warned of the risk of a new round of escalation with the warring sides’ external backers pouring in new weaponry.

    Turkey “will not bow to threats by Haftar or anyone else,” Turkey’s presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said separately in an interview on NTV.

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    It’s not clear where Turkey is going with this, as they mostly want maritime rights and a military base.

    Those are likely secured already, but the GNA probably feels very little need to step down in the face of recent gains.

  • Is War Next?
    Is War Next?

    Tyler Durden

    Wed, 05/27/2020 – 00:05

    Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

    Remember the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong against Chinese authoritarianism?

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    Well, guess what? They’re about to start again.

    And U.S.-Chinese relations could get even worse than they are right now.

    Are you prepared for a bumpy ride?

    Let’s unpack this…

    Last year’s protests came in response to a proposed law that would have allowed the extradition of Hong Kong residents to Beijing for trial on charges that arose in Hong Kong.

    That would have deprived Hong Kong residents of legal protections in local law and subjected prisoners to torture and summary execution.

    The legislation was proposed by Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam, who many consider a puppet of Beijing.

    The demonstrations grew exponentially, ultimately involving hundreds of thousands of protesters.

    The list of demands also grew to include more democracy and freedom and adherence to Hong Kong’s rule of law.

    Due to social media, these protests were seen around the world.

    The proposed bill behind the original protests was scrapped last October, which was a victory for the pro-democracy protesters.

    The protests didn’t end altogether, but tensions were at least diffused to a great extent and the world moved on.

    Well, here comes round two…

    China’s Communist parliament is preparing to roll out legislation that would ban “treason, secession, sedition (and) subversion” in Hong Kong.

    This is different from the previous legislation because this bill actually originates in Beijing, not Hong Kong. It’s a direct assault on Hong Kong’s democracy. The Chinese parliament would insert the legislation directly into Hong Kong’s constitution.

    It’s scheduled for passage next week.

    Pro-democracy activists have called for mass protests this weekend in response to what they rightly consider a Chinese invasion of their autonomy.

    We could be in for a fresh round of protests, with as many or more people. China’s reaction will be key.

    Will they try to put the protests down by force? That could have major consequences.

    Yesterday, news emerged that the U.S. Senate is introducing bipartisan legislation to impose sanctions on officials and business entities that enforce the new law.

    And President Trump warned yesterday that the U.S. would react “very strongly” to the Chinese legislation.

    In response, China’s foreign ministry warned Beijing would “fight back” against any U.S. interference.

    At a time when U.S.-Chinese relations are already at a low ebb due to China’s almost criminal handling of the coronavirus pandemic, it looks like things are about to get even worse.

    This situation could become very interesting.

    But you shouldn’t be surprised. The current trajectory of U.S.-China relations is following a familiar course. It started with the currency war…

    When my first book, Currency Wars, was published in 2011, I made the point that currency wars don’t exist all the time, but when they emerge they can last for 15 or 20 years.

    The reason is that the currency devaluations just go back and forth between major trading partners and no one is any further ahead in the long run.

    Readers said, “OK, we get that, but what comes next?”

    The answer is trade wars. Once currency devaluations fail, countries turn to tariffs to slow down imports and help their own exports.

    That’s where the U.S. and China are now, with the ongoing trade war (which could get worse).

    But that’s also a dead end from an economic perspective. Again, the question is: What comes next?

    Well, with history as a guide, we can see that today’s pattern is a repeat of what the world went through in the 1920s and 1930s.

    First came currency wars (1921–1936). Then came trade wars (1930–34) and then finally a shooting war (1939–1945).

    Are we heading for another shooting war with China? The signs are not good.

    Trade war tariffs can be weaponized to pursue geopolitical goals. Trump is using tariffs to punish China for its criminal negligence (or worse) in connection with the spread of the Wuhan virus to the U.S. and the rest of the world.

    This also has historical precedent.

    Between June and August 1941, President Franklin Roosevelt placed an oil embargo on Japan and froze Japan’s accounts in U.S. banks.

    In December 1941, the Japanese retaliated with the sneak attack on Pearl Harbor. Will China now escalate its retaliation to the point of armed conflict?

    We’ll find out soon, possibly in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait. The latest reemergence of tensions in Hong Kong only adds kerosene to the fire.

    Investors should prepare for U.S.-China geopolitical tension to grow worse. Maybe a lot worse. That’s the lesson of history.

  • Visualizing How US Consumers Are Spending Differently During COVID-19
    Visualizing How US Consumers Are Spending Differently During COVID-19

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 23:45

    In 2019, nearly 70% of U.S. GDP was driven by personal consumption. However, as Visual Capitalist’s Iman Ghosh notes, in the first and second quarters of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has initiated a transformation of consumer spending trends as we know them.

    Consumer Spending in Charts

    By leveraging new data from analytics platform 1010Data, today’s infographic dives into the credit and debit card spending of five million U.S. consumers over the past few months.

    Let’s see how their spending habits have evolved over that short timeframe:

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    The above data on consumer spending, which comes from 1010Data and powered by AI platform Exabel, is broken into 18 different categories:

    • General Merchandise & Grocery: Big Box, Pharmacy, Wholesale Club, Grocery

    • Retail: Apparel, Office Supplies, Pet Supplies

    • Restaurant: Casual dining, Fast casual, Fast food, Fine dining

    • Food Delivery: Food delivery, Grocery Delivery, Meal/Snack kit

    • Travel: Airline, Car rental, Cruise, Hotel

    It’s no surprise that COVID-19 has consumers cutting back on most of their purchases, but that doesn’t mean that specific categories don’t benefit from changes in consumer habits.

    Consumer Spending Changes By Category

    The onset of changing consumer behavior can be observed from February 25, 2020, when compared year-over-year (YoY).

    As of May 12, 2020, combined spending in all categories dropped by almost 30% YoY. Here’s how that shakes out across the different categories, across two months.

    General Merchandise & Grocery

    This segment saw a sharp spike in initial spending, as Americans scrambled to stockpile on non-perishable food, hand sanitizer, and toilet paper from Big Box stores like Walmart, or Wholesale Clubs like Costco.

    In particular, spending on groceries reached a YoY increase of 97.1% on March 18, 2020. However, these sudden panic-buying urges leveled out by the start of April.

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    Pharmaceutical purchases dropped the most in this segment, possibly as individuals cut back on their healthcare expenditures during this time. In fact, in an April 2020 McKinsey survey of physicians, 80% reported a decline in patient volumes.

    Retail

    With less foot traffic in malls and entire stores forced to close, sales of apparel plummeted both in physical locations and over e-commerce platforms.

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    Interestingly, sales of office supplies rose as many pivoted to working from home. Many parents also likely required more of these resources to home-school their children.

    Restaurant

    The food and beverage industry has been hard-hit by COVID-19. While many businesses turned to delivery services to stay afloat, those in fine dining were less able to rely on such a shift, and spiraled by 88.2% by May 5, 2020, year-over-year.

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    Applebees or Olive Garden exemplify casual dining, while Panera or Chipotle characterize fast casual.

    Food Delivery

    Meanwhile, many consumers also shifted from eating out to home cooking. As a result, grocery delivery services jumped by over five-fold—with consumers spending a whopping 558.4% more at its April 19, 2020 peak compared to last year.

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    Food delivery services are also in high demand, with Doordash seeing the highest growth in U.S. users than any other food delivery app in April.

    Travel

    While all travel categories experienced an immense decline, cruises suffered the worst blow by far, down by 87.0% in YoY spending since near the start of the pandemic.

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    Airlines have also come to a halt, nosediving by 91.4% in a 10-week span. In fact, governments worldwide have pooled together nearly $85 billion in an attempt to bail the industry out.

    Hope on the Horizon?

    Consumer spending offers a pulse of the economy’s health. These sharp drops in consumer spending fall in line with the steep decline in consumer confidence.

    In fact, consumer confidence has eroded even more intensely than the stock market’s performance this quarter, as observed when the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) is compared to the S&P 500 Index.

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    Many investors dumped their stocks as the coronavirus hit, but consumers tightened their purse strings even more. Yet, as the chart also shows, both the stock market and consumer sentiment are slowly but surely on the mend since April.

    As the stay-at-home curtain cautiously begins to lift in the U.S., there may yet be hope for economic recovery on the horizon.

  • Trump's "Keyboard Warriors" Get The Story While The Legacy Media Ignores #Obamagate
    Trump’s “Keyboard Warriors” Get The Story While The Legacy Media Ignores #Obamagate

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 23:25

    Submitted by Thomas Farnan

    CrowdStrike – the forensic investigation firm hired by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to inspect its computer servers in 2016 – admitted to Congressional investigators as early as 2017 that it had no direct evidence of Russian hacking, recently declassified documents show.

    CrowdStrike’s president Shawn Henry testified, “There’s not evidence that [documents and emails] were actually exfiltrated [from the DNC servers]. There’s circumstantial evidence but no evidence that they were actually exfiltrated.”

    This was a crucial revelation because the thousand ships of Russiagate launched upon the positive assertion that CrowdStrike had definitely proven a Russian hack.

    This sworn admission has been hidden from the public for over two years, and subsequent commentary has focused on that singular outrage.

    The next deductive step, though, leads to an equally crucial point: Circumstantial evidence of Russian hacking is itself flimsy and collapses when not propped up by a claim of conclusive forensic testing.

    THE COVER UP.

    On March 19, 2016, Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta, surrendered his emails to an unknown entity in a “spear phishing” scam. This has been called a “hack,” but it was not.  Instead, it is was the sort of flim-flam hustle that happens to gullible dupes on the internet.

    The content of the emails was beyond embarrassing. They showed election fraud and coordination with the media against the candidacy of Bernie Sanders. The DNC and the Clinton campaign needed a cover story.

    There already existed in Washington brooding suspicion that Vladimir Putin was working to influence elections in the West. The DNC and the Clinton campaign set out to retrofit that supposition to explain the emails.

    On January 16, 2016, a silk-stocking Washington D.C. think tank, The Atlantic Council (remember that name), had issued a dispatch under the banner headline: “US Intelligence Agencies to Investigate Russia’s Infiltration of European Political Parties.”

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    The lede was concise: “American intelligence agencies are to conduct a major investigation into how the Kremlin is infiltrating political parties in Europe, it can be revealed.”

    There followed a series of pull quotes from an article that appeared in the The Telegraph, including that “James Clapper, the US Director of National Intelligence” was investigating whether right wing political movements in Europe were sourced in “Russian meddling.”

    The dispatch spoke of “A dossier” that revealed “Russian influence operations” in Europe. This was the first time trippy words like “Russian meddling” and “dossier” would appear together in the American lexicon.

    Most importantly, the piece revealed the Obama administration was spying on conservative European political parties. This means, almost necessarily under the Five Eyes Agreement, foreign agents were returning the favor and spying on the Trump campaign.

    Blaming Russia would be a handy way to deal with the Podesta emails. The problem was the technologically impossibility of identifying the perpetrator in a phishing scheme. The only way to associate Putin with the emails was circumstantially. The DNC retained CrowdStrike to provide assistance.

    On June 12, 2016, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange announced: “We have upcoming leaks in relation to Hillary Clinton . . . We have emails pending publication.”

    Two days later, CrowdStrike fed the Washington Post a story, headlined, “Russian government hackers penetrated DNC, stole opposition research on Trump.”

    The improbable tale was that the Russians had hacked the DNC computer servers and got away with some opposition research on Trump. The article quoted CrowdStrike’s chief technology officer and co-founder, Dmitri Alperovitch, who also happens to be a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

    The next day, a new blog – Guccifer 2.0 – appeared on the internet and announced:

    Worldwide known cyber security company CrowdStrike announced that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) servers had been hacked by “sophisticated” hacker groups.

    I’m very pleased the company appreciated my skills so highly))) But in fact, it was easy, very easy.

    Guccifer may have been the first one who penetrated Hillary Clinton’s and other Democrats’ mail servers. But he certainly wasn’t the last. No wonder any other hacker could easily get access to the DNC’s servers.

    Shame on CrowdStrike: Do you think I’ve been in the DNC’s networks for almost a year and saved only 2 documents? Do you really believe it?

    Here are just a few docs from many thousands I extracted when hacking into DNC’s network.

    Guccifer 2.0 posted hundreds of pages of Trump opposition research allegedly hacked from the DNC and emailed copies to Gawker and The Smoking Gun. In raw form, the opposition research was one of the documents obtained in the Podesta emails, with a notable difference: It was widely reported the document now contained “Russian fingerprints.”

    The document had been cut and pasted into a separate Russian Word template that yielded an abundance of Russian “error “messages. In the document’s metadata was the name of the Russian secret police founder, Felix Dzerzhinsky, written in the Russian language. The three-parenthesis formulation from the original post “)))” is the Russian version of a smiley face used commonly on social media. In addition, the blog’s author deliberately used a Russian VPN service visible in its emails even though there would have been many options to hide national affiliation.

    CrowdStrike would later test the computers and declare this to be the work of sophisticated Russian spies. Alperovitch described it as, “skilled operational tradecraft.”

    There is nothing skilled, though, in ham-handedly disclosing a Russian identity on the internet when trying to hide it. The more reasonable inference is that this was a set-up. It certainly looks like Guccifer 2.0 suddenly appeared in coordination with the Washington Post’s article that appeared the previous day.

    THE FRAME UP.

    Knowing as we now do that CrowdStrike never corroborated a hack by forensic analysis, the reasonable inference is that somebody was trying to frame Russia. Most likely, the entities that spent three years falsely leading the world to believe that direct evidence of a hack existed – CrowdStrike and the DNC – were the ones involved in the frame-up.

    Lending weight to this theory: at the same moment CrowdStrike was raising a false Russian flag, a different entity, Fusion GPS – also paid by the DNC – was inventing a phony dossier that ridiculously connected Trump to Russia.

    Somehow, the ruse worked.

    Rather than report the content of the incriminating emails, the watchdog press instead reported CrowdStrike’s bad explanation: that Putin-did-it.

    Incredibly, Trump was placed on the defensive for email leaks that showed his opponent fixing the primaries.  His campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, was forced to resign because a fake ledger suddenly appeared out of Ukraine connecting him to Russia.

    Trump protested by stating the obvious: the federal government has “no idea” who was behind the hacks. The FBI and CIA called him a liar, issuing a “Joint Statement” that cited Guccifer 2.0, suggesting 17 intelligence agencies agree that it was the Russians. 

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    Hillary Clinton took advantage of this “intelligence assessment” in the October debate to portray Trump as Putin’s stooge”

    “We have 17, 17 intelligence agencies, civilian and military who have all concluded that these espionage attacks, these cyber-attacks, come from the highest levels of the Kremlin.  And they are designed to influence our election. I find that deeply disturbing,” said Clinton.

    The media’s fact checkers excoriated Trump for lying. This was the ultimate campaign dirty trick: a joint operation by the intelligence agencies and the media against a political candidate. It has since been learned that the “17 intelligence agencies” claptrap was always false.  Those responsible for the exaggeration were James Clapper, James Comey and John Brennan.

    Somehow, Trump won anyway.

    Those who assert that it is a “conspiracy theory” to say that CrowdStrike would fabricate the results of computer forensic testing to create a false Russian flag should know that it was caught doing exactly that around the time it was inspecting the DNC computers.

    On Dec. 22, 2016, CrowdStrike caused an international stir when it claimed to have uncovered evidence that Russians hacked into a Ukrainian artillery computer app to help pro-Russian separatists.

    Voice of America later determined the claim was false, and CrowdStrike retracted its finding.

    Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense was forced to eat crow and admit that the hacking never happened. If you wanted a computer testing firm to fabricate a Russian hack for political reasons in 2016, CrowdStrike was who you went out and hired.

    Perhaps most insidiously, the Obama administration played the phony Russian interference card during the transition to try to end Trump’s presidency before it started. As I wrote in December 2017:

    Michael Flynn was indicted for a conversation he had with the Russian ambassador on December 28, 2016, seven weeks after the election.

    That was the day after the outgoing president expelled 35 Russian diplomats—including gardeners and chauffeurs—for interfering in the election. Yes, that really happened.

    The Obama administration had wiretapped Flynn’s conversation with the ambassador, hoping to find him saying something they could use to support their wild story about collusion.

    The outrage, for some reason, is not that an outgoing administration was using wiretaps to listen in on a successor’s transition. It is that Flynn might have signaled to the Russians that the Trump administration would have a different approach to foreign policy.

    How dare Trump presume to tell an armed nuclear state to stand down because everyone in Washington was in a state of psychological denial that he was elected?

    Let’s establish one thing early here: It is okay for an incoming administration to communicate its foreign policy preferences during a transition even if they differ from the lame duck administration….

    ….If anything, Flynn was too reserved in his conversation with the Russian ambassador. He should have said, “President-elect Trump believes this Russian collusion thing is a fantasy and these sanctions will be lifted on his first day in office.”

    That would have been perfectly legal. It also happens to be what FBI Director Comey and the rest were hoping Flynn would do. They wanted to get a Trump official on tape making an accommodation to the Russians.

    The accommodation would then be cited to suggest a quid pro quo that proved the nonexistent collusion. Instead, Flynn was uncharacteristically noncommittal in his conversation with the ambassador. Drat!

    They did have a transcript of what he said, though. This is where the tin-pot dictator behavior of Comey is fully displayed. He invited Flynn to be interviewed by the FBI, supposedly about Russian collusion to steal the election.

    If you’re Flynn, you say, “Sure, I want to tell you 15 different ways that there was no collusion and when do you want to meet.”

    What Flynn did not know was that the purpose of the interview had nothing to do with the election. It would be a test pitting Flynn’s memory against the transcript.

    Think about that for a moment. Comey did not need to ask Flynn what was said in the conversation with the ambassador—he had a transcript. The only reason to ask Flynn about it was to cross him up.

    That is the politicization of the FBI. It is everything Trump supporters rail against when they implore him to drain the swamp. The inescapable conclusion is that the FBI set a trap for the incoming national security advisor to affect the foreign policy of the newly elected president.

    Flynn made the mistake of not being altogether clear about what he had discussed with the ambassador. In his defense, he did not believe he was sitting there to tell the FBI how the Trump administration was dealing with Russia going forward. The conversation was supposed to be about the election.

    He certainly did not think the FBI would unmask his comments in a FISA wiretap and compare them to his answers. That would be illegal.

    Exhibit 5 to the DOJ’s recent Motion to Dismiss the Flynn indictment confirms the Obama administration’s bad faith in listening in on his conversation with the ambassador. The plotters admit, essentially, that they looked at the transcript to see whether Flynn said anything that caused Russia to stand-down. Had General Flynn promised to lift the sanctions, the Obama administration would have claimed it was the pro quo that went with the quid of Putin’s interference.

    After Trump’s inauguration, the FBI and Justice Department launched a special counsel investigation that accepted, as a given, CrowdStrike’s dubious conclusion that Russia had interfered in the election. The only remaining question was whether Trump himself colluded in the interference. There followed a two-year inquiry that did massive political damage to Trump and the movement that put him in office.

    Tucker Carlson rightly made Trey Gowdy squirm recently for Republican acquiescence in the shoddy underpinnings of the Russia hoax. It was not only Gowdy, though. Establishment politicians and pundits have been all too willing for years to wallow in fabricated Russian intrigue, at the expense of the Trump presidency.

    This perfectly illustrates Republican perfidy: Gifted with undeserved victory in a generational realignment that they were dragged to kicking and screaming, they proceed to question its source and validity. Because if Trump was a product of KGB-esque intrigue, then Hillary was a victim of meddling. Trump was a hapless beneficiary. The deplorables were not only racist losers, they were also Putin’s unwitting stooges.

    As I first noted in December 2016, the Washington establishment deliberately set out to fan Russian anxiety to conduct war against the Trump administration. Perhaps it is time to admit that those of us chided as “crazies” who doubted Russian interference – including Trump himself – were right all along.

    In the after-action assessment of what went wrong, it should be noted that non-insiders are the ones who have called this from the beginning, in places like here, here, here, here, and here. That is partly what the president means when he Tweets support for his “keyboard warriors.” As Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany pointed out on Friday, the White House press corps has completely missed the story.

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    This scandal is huge, much bigger than Watergate, and compromising in its resolution is destructive.

    If Republicans continue to stupidly concede phony Russian intrigue, the plotters will say they were justified to investigate it.

    The recent CrowdStrike testimony drop ended any chance at middle ground. This was a rank political operation and indicting a few FBI agents is not going to resolve anything.

    CrowdStrike’s circumstantial evidence that launched this probe is ridiculous. We’ll soon know if the Durham investigation has the will to defy powerful insiders of both parties and say so.

  • Grenell Declassifies Flynn-Kislyak Calls On Last Day As Acting DNI
    Grenell Declassifies Flynn-Kislyak Calls On Last Day As Acting DNI

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 23:05

    In his last act as Acting Director of National Intelligence, Richard Grenell declassified the transcripts of intercepted phone calls between former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and former Russian Ambassador to the US, Sergey Kislyak.

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    The now-declassified transcripts are in the hands of his successor, former Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-TX), who was sworn in on Tuesday after the Senate confirmed him last Thursday by a vote of 49-44. Ratcliffe will decide whether they are released to the public, according to the New York Post.

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    Grenell said last week that he was in the process of declassifying the transcripts after House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-CA) made a written request for Grenell to do so, who was joined by Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) – to which Grenell replied “Those are coming. It’s very important for the public to see ALL of them,” adding “For too long the public has been misled. Just compare your committee’s transcripts to your public statements!”

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    The move follows a scorching Monday letter Grenell wrote to Sen. Mark Warner, who requested on May 20 that Grenell declassify intelligence reports in which Obama administration officials had unmasked Flynn’s identity after Grenell revealed a list of ‘unmaskers.’

    In response, Grenell said on Monday that he found it “puzzling” that Warner’s letter conveyed concerns over the declassification of Obama officials who unmasked Flynn – while in the next breath requesting the declassification and release of intelligence reports.

    “Cherry-picking certain documents for release, while attacking the release of others that don’t fit your political narrative, is part of the problem the American people have with Washington D.C. politicians,” wrote Grenell, who then asked Warner to explain his “philosophy on transparency,” suggesting that “it appears to be solely on political advantage.”

    Flynn was fired weeks after the Kislyak calls for lying to Vice President Mike Pence about the substance of the conversations, in which Flynn asked Russia not to escalate tension after the outgoing Obama administration slapped sanctions on the Kremlin in response to claims of election meddling in the 2016 election. Flynn later pleaded guilty in 2017 for lying to the FBI about the calls, however evidence emerged in his trial that the FBI was trying to ensnare him in a ‘perjury trap’ in which one option was to ‘try to get him to lie.’

    “What’s our goal? Truth/Admission or to get him to lie, so we can prosecute him or get him fired?” reads one handwritten note by the FBI’s then-director of counterintelligence.

    Last week, Flynn’s lawyer Sidney Powell joined former National Security Adviser Susan Rice in calling for the transcripts to be released.

    Powell said last Wednesday on SiriusXM’s “The Dan Abrams Show” that she “would love” to see those conversations become public, arguing that she believes the transcript would help exonerate her client.

    “I think the reason we haven’t seen [the transcripts] is because the word ‘sanctions’ doesn’t even appear in them,” she said at the time. –New York Post

    After the FBI’s plot to target Flynn emerged, the Department of Justice moved to drop the case – which is currently being stonewalled by activist Judge Emmet Sullivan.

  • China Is Its Own Worst Enemy
    China Is Its Own Worst Enemy

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 22:45

    Authored by Brahma Chellaney via Project Syndicate,

    The global backlash against China over its culpability for the international spread of the deadly coronavirus from Wuhan has gained momentum in recent weeks. And China itself has added fuel to the fire, as exemplified by its recent legal crackdown on Hong Kong. From implicitly seeking a political quid pro quo for supplying other countries with protective medical gear, to rejecting calls for an independent international inquiry into the virus’s origins until a majority of countries backed such a probe, the bullying tactics of President Xi Jinping’s government have damaged and isolated China’s communist regime.

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    The backlash could take the form of Western sanctions as Xi’s regime seeks to overturn Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” framework with its proposed new national-security laws for the territory, which has been wracked by widespread pro-democracy protests for over a year. More broadly, Xi’s overreach is inviting increasing hostility among China’s neighbors and around the world.

    Had Xi been wise, China would have sought to repair the pandemic-inflicted damage to its image by showing empathy and compassion, such as by granting debt relief to near-bankrupt Belt and Road Initiative partner countries and providing medical aid to poorer countries without seeking their support for its handling of the outbreak. Instead, China has acted in ways that undermine its long-term interests.

    Whether through its aggressive “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy – named after two Chinese films in which special-operations forces rout US-led mercenaries – or military-backed expansionist moves in China’s neighborhood, Xi’s regime has caused international alarm. In fact, Xi, the self-styled indispensable leader, views the current global crisis as an opportunity to tighten his grip on power and advance his neo-imperialist agenda, recently telling a Chinese university audience that, “The great steps in history were all taken after major disasters.”

    China has certainly sought to make the most of the pandemic. After buying up much of the world’s available supply of protective medical equipment in January, it has engaged in price-gouging and apparent profiteering. And Chinese exports of substandard or defective medical gear have only added to the international anger.

    While the world grapples with COVID-19, the Chinese military has provoked border flare-ups with India and attempted to police the waters off the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands. China has also recently established two new administrative districts in the South China Sea, and stepped up its incursions and other activities in the area. In early April, for example, a Chinese coast guard ship rammed and sank a Vietnamese fishing boat, prompting the United States to caution China to “stop exploiting the [pandemic-related] distraction or vulnerability of other states to expand its unlawful claims in the South China Sea.”

    Meanwhile, China has made good on its threat of economic reprisals against Australia for initiating the idea of an international coronavirus inquiry. Through trade actions, the Chinese government has effectively cut off imports of Australian barley and blocked more than one-third of Australia’s regular beef exports to China.

    Whereas Japan readily allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct a full investigation into the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster – a probe that helped the country to improve safety governance – China strongly opposed any coronavirus inquiry, as if it had something to hide. In fact, some Chinese commentators denounced calls for an inquiry as racist.

    But once a resolution calling for an “impartial, independent and comprehensive evaluation” of the global response to COVID-19 gained the support of more than 100 countries in the World Health Organization’s decision-making body, the World Health Assembly, Xi sought to save face by telling the assembly that “China supports the idea of a comprehensive review.” At the last minute, China co-sponsored the resolution, which was approved without objection.

    The resolution, however, leaves it up to the WHO’s controversial director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, to launch the review “at the earliest appropriate moment.” Tedros, who has been accused of aiding China’s initial COVID-19 cover-up, may decide to wait until the pandemic has come “under control,” as Xi has proposed.

    Make no mistake: the world will not be the same after this wartime-like crisis. Future historians will regard the pandemic as a turning point that helped to reshape global politics and restructure vital production networks. Indeed, the crisis has made the world wake up to the potential threats stemming from China’s grip on many global supply chains, and moves are already afoot to loosen that control.

    More fundamentally, Xi’s actions highlight how political institutions that bend to the whim of a single, omnipotent individual are prone to costly blunders. China’s diplomatic and information offensive to obscure facts and deflect criticism of its COVID-19 response may be only the latest example of its brazen use of censure and coercion to browbeat other countries. But it represents a watershed moment.

    In the past, China’s reliance on persuasion secured its admission to international institutions like the World Trade Organization and helped to power its economic rise. But under Xi, spreading disinformation, exercising economic leverage, flexing military muscle, and running targeted influence operations have become China’s favorite tools for getting its way. Diplomacy serves as an adjunct of the Communist Party’s propaganda apparatus.

    Xi’s approach is alienating other countries, in the process jeopardizing their appetite for Chinese-made goods, scaring away investors, and accentuating China’s image problem. Negative views of China and its leadership among Americans have reached a record high. Major economies such as Japan and the US are offering firms relocation subsidies as an incentive to shift production out of China. And India’s new rule requiring prior government approval of any investment from China is the first of its kind.

    China currently faces the most daunting international environment since it began opening up in the late 1970s, and now it risks suffering lasting damage to its image and interests. A boomerang effect from Xi’s overreach seems inevitable. A pandemic that originated in China will likely end up weakening the country’s global position and hamstringing its future growth. In this sense, the hollowing out of Hong Kong’s autonomy in the shadow of COVID-19 could prove to be the proverbial straw that breaks the Chinese camel’s back.

  • Chinese Yuan Suddenly Tumbling
    Chinese Yuan Suddenly Tumbling

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 22:32

    Just after 9:45pm ET the offshore yuan – the one which is not subject to the PBOC’s trading band limits – tumbled, plunging 250 pips in minutes.

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    The move was unexpected, following a stronger than expected setting of the USDCNY by the PBOC, whose midpoint was set at 7.1092, far stronger than the 7.1220 expected and the 12 year low of 7.1293 hit on Tuesday. The drop comes just hours after Bloomberg reported that Trump administration was considering sanctions including transaction controls, and asset freezes, over the implementation of the new national security law in Hong Kong.

    While the offshore yuan is not at all time lows yet – it would need to hit around 7.20 for that – there has been no news to justify the move, with the sudden move sparking speculation that Beijing may be using it to telegraph the devaluation that could follow should the US escalate aggressively in response to a Hong Kong crackdown.

    Here, once again, is a reminder from Rabobank’s Michael Every why in the current environment of escalating hostility between the US and China, the only thing that matters is the Yuan, and why in the not too distant future, the Chinese currency may have a 10-handle in front of it.

    This time last year, when we were all still going abroad regularly (right now just ‘outside’ is becoming a psychological barrier if I am honest) I was traveling with a presentation titled “Clause is Cause”. This argued that from a geostrategic ‘Von Clausewitz’ perspective, not a neoliberal “Let’s assume world peace” version, the US would at some point realise the USD/Eurodollar was a weapon it could wield vs. China, and when it did we would see three key strings cut: trade; tech; and then capital flows. The first was evident during the trade war – which has not been concluded is likely to get far worse soon; the second is also abundantly clear on a variety of fronts, much to Silicon Valley’s chagrin; and potentially, now we see the start of that third step – because if the US does block this first USD50bn going in, other such steps will follow, just as they did on the previously unthinkable idea of US tariffs on China.

    CNH is right to be selling off, albeit in a traditionally limited fashion, because if you don’t buy from China and you don’t help China up the value-chain and you don’t invest in China then China is not going to be getting much USD liquidity at all. The US hawks probably don’t get the Eurodollar iron logic there; they are likely just pressing buttons in anger. The outcome would be the same nonetheless.

    I can hear the market bulls and technocrats of the world saying “But China has USD3 trillion in reserves!” Perhaps. Most think it’s far lower than that. And not earning USD means you have to dig into that stockpile. And when you do, the PBOC either has to contract the local money supply (because every USD is backed by 7.xx CNY on the other side of the balance sheet) or it just creates new CNY anyway and supply-demand sees CNY move sharply lower – as we have been seeing in all other EM FX. Looking at the drop in BRL, ARS, ZAR, TRY, etc., or even THB, this would be how we would get to the ‘unthinkable’ 8 (9? 10?) handle in CNY. That would also crush those other EM crosses in tandem – and AUD and NZD, as the former tries to navigate its own geopolitical spat with Beijing.

    As we said two days ago, “with the Fed having taken over most US capital markets which have now lost most if not all of their discounting and signaling capabilities, keep an eye on that USDCNH: ironically, it may be the last true market stress indicator left.”

    Moves like tonight suggest that either someone knows something, that something big may be coming, or the algos are just doing all they can to trigger another stop loss domino effect.

  • "I'm Looking For The Truth!" – Experts Slam States For 'Misrepresenting' COVID-19 Data As Outbreak Recedes
    “I’m Looking For The Truth!” – Experts Slam States For ‘Misrepresenting’ COVID-19 Data As Outbreak Recedes

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 22:25

    For better or worse, every state in the US is pushing ahead with plans to reopen their economies. On Tuesday afternoon, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that retailers across the state would be allowed to reopen immediately, along with barbershops and salons in some counties. Later this week, Texas and a handful of other states will enter “phase 2” of their reopening plans.

    But while the spike in new cases and deaths has decidedly not materialized – the number of new cases confirmed across the US tumbled to its lowest level in 2 months on Tuesday – a handful of states have still be called out for meddling or distorting the data before it was presented to the public to help justify plans to reopen before satisfying the federal guidelines released by the Trump Administration back in April.

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    Former Obama-era CDC Director Tom Frieden, a near-constant voice on cable news like MSNBC and CNN, has regularly bashed states like Georgia for allegedly putting President Trump’s reelection prospects before people’s lives. But Frieden – one of many officials who proclaimed that the White House was deliberately trying to suppress projections calling for 3k deaths per day by June 1 – has moved on to highlighting examples of disingenuous data reporting by the states.

    Of course, it has become clear in the weeks since the NYT published those projections that they were way, way off-base, just like the White House explained when it explained why it wasn’t relying on them.

    But Frieden just can’t help himself, apparently, as NBC News reports.

    “Accurate, complete and timely information is the best way to understand, respond to and limit the impact of the virus on both health and the economy,” Dr. Tom Frieden, who ran the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under former President Barack Obama, told NBC News.

    “This helps to set realistic expectations on how the pandemic will affect people’s lives and to inform required changes in behavior to prevent the spread of the virus,” he added.

    In Georgia, officials have apologized for string of suspicious “errors” that implied the number of new cases were falling earlier and more quickly than the official data bore out (over the past week, the number of new cases has fallen sharply even as access to testing has been expanded).

    Georgia officials have apologized and corrected what was described as a “processing error” that wrongly showed a downward trend in the number of new daily infections in the state, making it appear as if new infections had dropped every day for two weeks. The error was at least the third in three weeks, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported.

    Georgia was among the first states to launch its reopening. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, said the state on Tuesday recorded its lowest number of hospitalized patients since it began tracking such data in early April.

    Florida reported just 7 deaths on Tuesday, but its Republican Gov Ron DeSantis, who is universally loathed by liberals, and state public health officials were called out by a would-be whistleblower who says she was pressured to remove some data from a public website.

    In the neighboring state of Florida, which has also moved expeditiously in reopening swathes of its economy, several data-related controversies also have brewed.

    According to internal emails obtained by the Tampa Bay Times, state officials directed a top Florida Department of Health data manager earlier this month to remove data from public view that showed Florida residents had reported coronavirus-associated symptoms before cases were officially announced. The emails showed that the data manager, Rebekah Jones, had complied with the order but said it was the “wrong call.”

    Jones was taken off her role maintaining the state’s coronavirus dashboard one day after that directive. She told a local CBS affiliate that she refused to “manually change data to drum up support for the plan to reopen” Florida. Last week, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, said Jones was under “active criminal charges” for cyber stalking and cyber sexual harassment.

    Meanwhile, Florida officials last month stopped releasing the list of coronavirus deaths being compiled by the state’s medical examiners, which had at times shown a higher death toll than the total being published by the state. State officials said that list needed to be reviewed as a result of the discrepancy.

    A spokesman for the state Health Department said the medical examiners had a different method for reporting deaths and that it was untrue “that deaths have been hidden.”

    “The government has one mission; academics and scholars have a very different mission,” Dr. Dean Hart, an expert on viral transmission and former Columbia University professor who has run for the New York State Assembly as a Democrat, told NBC News.

    “As a scientist, I’m looking for the truth, the heck with who it hurts politically,” he added.

    Arizona, another red state, was accused of ignoring dire projections from a team at the University of Arizona. It’s unclear if they were ever used, of if they were even all that reliable. But the local and national press jumped on the story nonetheless.

    Amid reopening in Arizona, the state Department of Health Services cut off a team of Arizona State and University of Arizona experts who provided pandemic modeling specific to the state, saying it was no longer needed as the state preferred to use a federal model. After a backlash, the Health Department reinstated the team, though it’s unclear whether state officials are using the local universities’ work in their decision-making.

    Since that dust up, Arizona State released new data showing infections and hospitalizations in the state could soar this summer.

    But by far the biggest complained alleged by NBC News applied to both blue and red states. States have unsurprisingly done an abysmal job sharing data on deaths and cases in nursing homes, where roughly half of the patients who died of the virus lived.

    The top issue nationally related to the publication of specific coronavirus data involving nursing home cases and deaths, where state and local officials have faced intense scrutiny over the collection and release of such information. The virus has hit nursing homes exceptionally hard — a result of both their residents’ vulnerability and policies states and localities have put into place.

    In one such example, Arizona officials argued this month they should not reveal the names of facilities with outbreaks because it could give those nursing homes a stigma and could lead to discrimination against them. The argument was made in response to a lawsuit from Arizona news outlets demanding the state provide information on COVID-19 cases in nursing homes and other data.

    In Pennsylvania, state officials released such data last week after weeks of delay and in the face of significant pressure.

    The federal government, on the other hand, plans to publish such information by the end of May.

    Hart said more information on nursing homes could paint a clearer picture of what happened specifically in New York with the spread of COVID-19. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, has come under fire for his administration’s March order that nursing homes must accept coronavirus patients. That order was reversed earlier this month.

    Which is the greater sin: manipulating data on a chart to exaggerate a decline in coronavirus cases? Or slow-rolling data on deaths and infections involving the most at-risk patients? We suspect that, in the long run, Gov. Cuomo’s “policy” forcing nursing homes to take in COVID-19-positive residents even after they had tested positive at a local hospital will be remembered as a much more reckless lapse than squabbling between some of bureaucrats in Florida’s Department of Health.

  • Psychiatrists Wrote 86% More Prescriptions For Psychotropic Drugs During Lockdown Months
    Psychiatrists Wrote 86% More Prescriptions For Psychotropic Drugs During Lockdown Months

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 22:05

    Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

    Psychiatrists wrote 86% more prescriptions for psychotropic drugs, including antidepressants, during the lockdown months of March and April compared to January and February, it has been revealed.

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    “Prescriptions for anti-anxiety medications and sleep aids have risen during the pandemic, prompting doctors to warn about the possibility of long-term addiction abuse of the drugs,” reports the Wall Street Journal.

    According to Ginger, an organization that provides mental health services to companies, compared to January and February of this year, prescriptions for psychotropics, most of which were antidepressants, were up 86% for the months of March and April.

    The stress of unemployment, social isolation and health concerns are all cited by Americans who say the lockdown is having a serious impact on their mental health.

    Pharmacy group Express Scripts also revealed that prescriptions for anti-anxiety medications were up 34.1% between mid-February and mid-March, while prescriptions for antidepressants increased 18.6%.

    The numbers emphasize the significant mental health toll created by the lockdown which will reverberate for many years to come.

    As we highlighted yesterday, Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek, California say they have recorded more deaths from suicide than coronavirus, with a year’s worth of suicides and suicide attempts being recorded in a 4 week period.

    “Community health is suffering,” warned Dr. Mike deBoisblanc, as he called for the lockdown order to be fully lifted.

    *  *  *

    My voice is being silenced by free speech-hating Silicon Valley behemoths who want me disappeared forever. It is CRUCIAL that you support me.

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  • Coronavirus Uses Same Strategy As HIV To Evade, Cripple Immune System: Chinese Study Finds
    Coronavirus Uses Same Strategy As HIV To Evade, Cripple Immune System: Chinese Study Finds

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 21:46

    Back on February 1, when the coronavirus pandemic was only just starting to attract broader attention and the China-influenced mainstream media was still politically inclined to minimize the severity of the disease before pulling a sharp U-turn and now going full bore with a narrative of just how dangerous it is for the Trump administration to reopen the economy (because if the economy recovers by November, Trump just might get re-elected), we published an article referencing an Arxiv pre-print which found that the covid-19 genome contained “HIV Insertions”, stoking fears that the virus was an artificially created bioweapon. While the mere suggestion that this virus was man-made – nevermind sharing discrete segments of its genetic structure with HIV – sparked outrage among the well-paid mercenary enforcers of the First Amendment known as “fact-checkers” who are employed by such biased organizations as Twitter and Facebook to stifle any line of inquiry that runs contrary to whatever dominant narrative has been blessed by the Zuckerbergs and Dorseys of the world, it was none other than the man who discovered the HIV virus back in 1983, that confirmed our suspicions saying that “the virus was man-made.”

    As we reported in April, Professor Luc Montagnier, the 2008 Nobel Prize winner for Medicine, claimed that SARS-CoV-2 is a manipulated virus that was accidentally released from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, and added that the WUhan laboratory, known for its work on coronaviruses, tried to use one of these viruses as a vector for HIV in the search for an AIDS vaccine.

    Needless to say, since this narrative was destructive to China and all those self-proclaimed experts who had vowed there is no way the Wuhan virus was i) manmade, ii) released by a Chinese lab and iii) had HIV-insertions, the story was quickly buried and never received as much as a minute of airtime in conventional media sources.

    That may all change now, as a result of the third, and perhaps most startling yet twist in the bizarre saga of the coronavirus, after the South China Morning Post reported that a new study by Chinese scientists has found that the novel coronavirus uses the same strategy to evade attack from the human immune system as HIV.

    Specifically, both viruses remove marker molecules on the surface of an infected cell that are used by the immune system to identify invaders, the researchers said in a non-peer reviewed paper titled “The ORF8 Protein of SARS-CoV-2 Mediates Immune Evasion through Potently Downregulating MHC-I”, posted on pre-print website bioRxiv.org on Sunday (a paper which the great hordes of amateur epidemiologists will make sure is promptly taken down or else their carefully planted propaganda may be obliterated). They warned that this commonality could mean Sars-CoV-2, the clinical name for the virus, could be around for some time, like HIV.

    Separately, virologist Zhang Hui and a team from Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou also said their discovery added weight to clinical observations that the coronavirus was showing “some characteristics of viruses causing chronic infection”.

    Some more details on the Hui study: the researchers collected killer T cells from five patients who had recently recovered from Covid-19; those immune cells are generated by people after they are infected with Sars-CoV-2, and whose job is to find and destroy the virus. But the killer T cells used in the study were not effective at eliminating the virus in infected cells. When the scientists took a closer look they found that a molecule known as major histocompatibility complex, or MHC, was missing.

    The molecule is an identification tag usually present in the membrane of a healthy cell, or in sick cells infected by other coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome, or Sars. It changes with infections, alerting the immune system whether a cell is healthy or infected by a virus. However, there is one notable disease that makes MHC molecules disappears from the cell surface: HIV.

    The coronavirus removes these markers by producing a protein known as ORF8, which binds with MHC molecules, then pulls them inside the infected cell and destroys them, the researchers said.

    ORF8, which is also known to play an important role in viral replication, is the gene that is targeted by most commercial test kits to detect viral loads in nose or oral swabs. 

    Needless to say, the absence of MHC makes the creation of vaccines against covid problematic, although the study authors had a suggestion: while drugs used to treat Covid-19 patients mainly target enzymes or structural proteins needed for viral replication, Zhang and his team suggested compounds be developed “specifically targeting the impairment of MHC by ORF8, and therefore enhancing immune surveillance for Sars-CoV-2 infection”.

    And here is where things gets very messy for the frauds known as “fact-checkers” who – without any actual facts or knowledge – threw up all over our February report that the coronavirus shared genetic material with HIV: while the mainstream media did everything in its power to censor any suggestions that Covid and HIV having genetic similarities (after all who wants to be threatened by an airborne version of AIDS) now it is none other than the South China Morning Post which writes that “earlier studies found the spike protein of the new coronavirus had a structure that allowed it to enter many types of human cells and bind with them. The same structure was also found in HIV, but not in other coronaviruses found in animals such as bats and pangolins.”

    Oops, the SCMP will have a a lot of explaining for reporting on, you know, the facts.

    But wait there’s more. Another study by researchers in New York and Shanghai also found that the Sars-CoV-2, sometimes called the “Wu Flu” could kill T cells, or as the SCMP puts it “the discovery came after autopsies in China found immune system destruction similar to that caused by AIDS.”

    At this point, the SCMP has pointed out all the exact same facts – that the coronavirus not only shares genetic material with HIV, but also evades and cripples the immune system in a similar way to HIV – that got the “highly respected” StatNews to accuse Zero Hedge of spreading an “infodemic.” We wonder if StatNews author John Gregory will append his “analysis” now that actual “facts” have emerged showing that it’s not the infodemic we should be afraid of, but the censordemic.

    * * *

    Of course, if covid and HIV share a similar approach to hiding from, and crippling the host immune system, kiss any hope for a vaccine – or cure – goodbye. Four decades after HIV – a virus that attacks the immune system – emerged, it has killed about 32 million people globally and there is still no vaccine or drug that can completely cure the disease.

    Which begs the question: who were the real conspiracy theorists – those who reported the facts, or all those countless “mainstream” publications who sought to stifle the facts, by accusing us – and many others – of peddling conspiracy theories. For the answer, we go back to what HIV-discovered Montagnier said in April:  “Conspirators are the opposite camp, hiding the truth,” he said without wanting to accuse anyone, but hoping that the Chinese will admit to what he believes happened in their laboratory. “In any case, the truth always comes out, it is up to the Chinese government to take responsibility.”

    And while we admire Montagnier’s optimism,we are not holding our breath until the truth finally does come out. Until then, the SCMP may want to watch the bank of its social media accounts – can’t have the peasants realizing they were lied to all along. Twitter, for example, has developed a nasty habit of immediately banning anyone who dares to tell the truth about anything.

    The full paper is below (link). Read it before it mysteriously disappears.

  • Barry Ritholtz, Author Of "Bailout Nation", Gets A Bailout
    Barry Ritholtz, Author Of “Bailout Nation”, Gets A Bailout

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 21:25

    Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

    Barry Ritholtz, Author of Bailout Nation, just got a bailout.

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    Please note the $1.3 billion Ritholtz Wealth Firm Takes Out a PPP Loan.

    Count Ritholtz Wealth Management among the $1bn-plus RIAs which have taken out government-backed coronavirus relief loans.

    Reformed Broker Under Pressure

    The RIA’s chief executive, Josh Brown had this to say in a Reformed Broker blog post.

    We qualified for the SBA-backed payroll protection loan after submitting our information and attestations. Two and a half months worth of employee payroll. I’m never comfortable taking on debt, but I’m even less comfortable about the idea of having to let people go. I would never be able to look myself in the mirror again if I had made that promise and didn’t back it up with action.

    Thank you, Chase Bank! Thank you, SBA! It’s the news I needed and it came at the right time. Many of our peers of a similar size and employee headcount throughout the industry were able to make use of the program too. Being able to assure the firm that we’re keeping everyone and honoring all of our financial commitments meant everything in the moment.

    Thank You Chase Bank!

    Heaven forbid that an RIA would have to lose money over anything at all or layoff any employees.

    It would be un-American for such travesties of justice to occur.

    Fortunately, Ritzholz Wealth can use that money and under small business loan rules does not even have to pay it back. 

    Tears to My Eyes

    I nearly cried when I read this part.

    This post is dedicated to the 13,000 registered investment advisory firms in America and their 835,000 employees. Our industry serves 43 million clients nationwide and we are proud to be a part of it. Thanks to all of our colleagues who’ve shared their stories with us as we’ve shared ours. 

    God’s Work

    No one can possibly be more deserving of a taxpayer bailout than RIA.

    They do God’s Work

    Bailout Nation – The Book

    I happen to have a copy of the book Bailout Nation at hand.

    From the jacket of Bailout Nation.

    Ritzholz leaves no stone unturned as he breaks down how the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate targeting policies as well as a condition known as moral hazard – the belief that you won’t bear the full consequences of your actions.

    The United States has abandoned its capitalist roots and become a Bailout Nation.

    Once again, thank you Chase Bank for allowing RIAs to continue with their God’s work.

  • Total Chaos: Chicago Sees Deadliest Memorial Day Weekend In Years Despite Stay-At-Home Orders
    Total Chaos: Chicago Sees Deadliest Memorial Day Weekend In Years Despite Stay-At-Home Orders

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 21:05

    Shockingly, or perhaps not so-, Chicago just witnessed its deadliest Memorial Day weekend since 2015 despite a coronavirus stay-at-home order. As one crime analyst observed, “They (gangs) are not particularly deterred by the risks of being out there,” as cited in ABC. “Of all the things they are likely to be worried about COVID is way down the list.”

    The long warm weather weekend (crimes tend to spike over hot weather holiday weekends) saw a total of 49 people shot from Friday afternoon through Monday evening. Ten among these were killed. 

    Included were shootings that even occurred midday and at frequented intersections, including a 15-year old boy shot and left in critical condition after getting into an argument with the driver of an SUV on Saturday morning. In another instance, a teenage girl was grazed in the leg as shots range out nearby.

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    File image via NBC Chicago

    Typically Chicago police hit the streets Memorial Day weekend with an extra 1,000 officers in addition to their regular patrol numbers. This after last weekend included 38 total shootings, including six people killed in gun violence throughout the city.

    “The violence throughout the city on Memorial Day weekend was nothing short of alarming,” new Chicago police Superintendent David Brown said Tuesday.

    It’s part of a broader national rise in violent crime observed, surprisingly enough, across three major US cities since the start of the year – and despite pandemic-induced local and state-wide lockdowns:

    According to Chicago police crime statistics posted online, between Jan. 1 and May 24, the nation’s third-largest city had 200 homicides, compared with 176 during the same period last year. The number of shootings climbed from 679 to 826. However, the number of criminal sexual assaults, burglaries and thefts all fell by double digits.

    The statistics largely mirror what police in Los Angeles and New York have reported. In both cities, the number of homicides has increased so far this year while the number of sexual assaults has fallen.

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    Ahead of what’s expected to be a major rise in violent crime in the coming warm months, consistent with historical trends, Chicago city agencies announced the establishment of a “Summer Operations Center” to stem the rising murder rate, according to city press releases.

    And generally, when more Americans finally do come of lockdown no doubt ready with a ‘live hard/party hard’ mentality, as some places are already seeing, there’s likely to be a major spike in violent crime. 

  • Neil Howe: Expect Creative Destruction In This Fourth Turning
    Neil Howe: Expect Creative Destruction In This Fourth Turning

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 20:45

    Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,m

    Neil Howe, demographer and co-authour of the book The Fourth Turning, returns to the podcast this week. In our prior interviews with him, we’ve explored his study of generational cycles (“turnings”) in America which reveal predictable social trends that recur throughout history and invariably result in transformational crisis (a “fourth turning”).

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    Fourth turnings are characterized by a growing demand for social order, yet supply of it remains weak. The emergence of the surveillance state, a perpetual war machine, increased intervention in failing markets by the central planners, greater government control of critical systems like health care and the Internet — all of these are classic fourth turning signs of the desperation authorities exert as they lose control.

    History shows time and time again that such overreach ends in rejection of the current order, usually via violent revolution.

    Now that we’re roughly halfway through the current Fourth Turning and things have really started to unravel here in 2020, we’ve asked Neil back on the program to update us on what to expect next:

    During times of peace and prosperity, inequality over time always increases. It always increases. There are only four things which reduced inequality through history: total war, total revolution, famines, and plagues.

    You have this weird situation in America now the where interest rates are practically 0% and almost no one is doing any investing. How do you explain such high returns on existing capital with 0% interest rates, and yet no one’s using those low interest rates? Because new creators of business can’t get the same high returns as the incumbents. That’s the reason.

    So we have a bifurcated market and I think that this is what has to be broken down. The fourth turning is to some extent an act of creative destruction. It destroys as much as it creates. We saw that in the 1930s. We saw that in the 1940s which, by the way, was a period of huge shift from inequality to equality in America.

    But I do think there’s a broader point about inequality and this is point about creative destruction. There has to be some destruction in there. You have to destroy the privileges. You have to destroy the sinecures — and that’s never pleasant. But it’s part of the process.

    I’ve often told people — if they expect to see Social Security reformed, global warming solved, and god knows what else you’re talking about on a peaceful sunny day — that big reforms come about during dark and stormy nights. And I’m talking about BIG reforms…reforms that actually commit society to huge new sacrifices.

    To hear which developments are most likely to happen next during this current Fourth Turning, click the play button below to listen to Chris’ interview with Neil Howe (57m:25s)

  • Watch: Venezuela Sends Large Fighter Jet Escort For Tankers As Iran's Flag Flies Over Caracas
    Watch: Venezuela Sends Large Fighter Jet Escort For Tankers As Iran’s Flag Flies Over Caracas

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 20:25

    To pretty much everyone’s surprise it appears the five Iranian gasoline tankers will be able to offload their fuel to Venezuela without incident, despite US threats to thwart what Washington sees as illicit sanctions-busting. It remains that the return trip could be a different story, however. 

    Dramatic video emerged early this week showing the first couple of tankers’ arrivals within Venezuelan coastal waters, accompanied by what appeared a large Venezuelan military escort, as Maduro officials promised. 

    First tanker to successfully arrive, the Fortune, docked by Monday, while all are now reported in Caribbean waters, with the second vessel soon to reportedly to dock as well, already safely within Venezuela’s Exclusive Economic Zone.

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    According to multiple widely circulating videos, Maduro’s military deployed multiple warships to escort the tankers along with what appears at least a half-dozen Russian-produced fighter jets and F-16s. No doubt the Pentagon and Trump administration has monitored the images closely. 

    There were growing fears of a ‘tanker war’ Caribbean-style given that last month Trump reportedly ordered a US naval build-up in the region against alleged Maduro government narcotrafficking. 

    Though with plenty of oil, Venezuela has struggled to obtain gasoline for domestic consumption given its network of broken and derelict refineries, which its ally Iran has responded to by delivering 1.53 million barrels of gasoline and refining components.

    Venezuelan officials declared the fuel delivery as a “landmark in struggle for sovereignty” while unusually an Iranian flag appeared over downtown Caracas:

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    Given that Maduro made good on his promise to send significant armed forces to provide security for the tankers, it’s likely the White House saw too many ‘unknowns’ if the US Navy were to attempt an intercept of the fuel

    But as one international report underscored days ago, “There are still chances for the US to make trouble for Iran’s tanker fleet. More ships will arrive in the coming days and then they have to go back to Iran.”

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    Caracas is attempting to flex its military muscle as a warning to Washington and its allies, while perhaps also viewing this as a ‘test run’ for future Iranian fuel shipments.

    “We’re ready for whatever, whenever,” Nicolas Maduro declared last week when he and his generals rolled out plans for a major military operation to ensure the tankers arrive safely.

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    Should the whole operation go down without conflict or interference, it will indeed set a precedent – meaning there will be more Iranian tankers and supplies to come in the next months. 

  • "Historic Opportunity": Israel Reveals Date Of Planned West Bank Annexation
    “Historic Opportunity”: Israel Reveals Date Of Planned West Bank Annexation

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 20:05

    Via AlmasdarNews.com,

    The head of the Governmental Coalition in Israel, Mickey Zohar, revealed that the measures to legislate the process of imposing Israeli sovereignty on all Jewish residential communities in the West Bank will begin in early July.

    The Likud MP said in a radio interview on Tuesday, that the government will approve the draft law on this, and then it will be submitted to the Knesset for approval, expecting that these measures will continue for only a few weeks.

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    Israeli checkpoint near Jerusalem, via The Jerusalem Post.

    Representative Zohar announced that the concerned authorities are currently working on mapping in order to reach understandings with the American administration about the areas that Israel will impose their sovereignty over in the West Bank.

    In response to a question about whether the White House would insist on the establishment of a Palestinian state in exchange for the annexation, the head of the government coalition said: “He opposes this demand, expressing his conviction that Israel will not give up the annexation in any case.”

    He stressed that the government would also not agree to freezing construction work in isolated residential compounds in the occupied West Bank, but was ready to freeze construction in places not close to those that would be imposed on Israeli sovereignty.

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    Haaretz presents Monday remarks of PM Netanyahu as follows:

    Israel will not miss a “historic opportunity” to extend its sovereignty to parts of the West Bank, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday, calling the move one of his new government’s top tasks.

    Netanyahu has pledged to put Jewish settlements and the Jordan Valley in the West Bank under Israeli sovereignty. He has set July 1 as a starting date for cabinet discussions on the issue, which has also raised alarm within the European Union

    The Palestinian leadership has already rejected this planned annexation, as the President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, withdrew from all agreements with the U.S. and Israel over this contingency.

  • Summer Driving Season Starts Off With A Whimper… And A 30% Drop
    Summer Driving Season Starts Off With A Whimper… And A 30% Drop

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 19:56

    It may be time to start shorting oil again.

    Memorial Day Weekend, which was closely watched by economists for signs of reopening “green shoots” and an acceleration in the US recovery, ended up being a huge dud. Because while beaches were mostly open and states across the country emerged from lockdowns, Bloomberg notes that demand for gasoline ended up falling over the Memorial Day holiday weekend, not only compared to a year prior but also to last week!

    While gasoline consumption was expected to jump to reflect the “pent up” traveling, gasoline demand actually fell 1.34% from Thursday to Monday of the holiday weekend compared to the week prior, Patrick DeHaan, an analyst at GasBuddy, said in a tweet Tuesday. Worse, consumption on Monday fell 0.5% from the week prior, and was a whopping 25% to 35% lower compared with the long weekend a year earlier.

    In short, if this is a sign of what to expect from gasoline consumption over the summer, it will be a very painful time for refiners and oil producers.

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    According to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston, that may have been because people kept their driving local, when in previous years they had traveled farther. But whatever the reason for the tentative unofficial start to the summer, the lackluster start to what is typically considered the season for peak American fuel demand shows how vulnerable the oil market remains as the fallout from the coronavirus crisis haunts economies according to Bloomberg.

    Meanwhile crude prices have surged 80% in May, after a historic collapse below zero in April, on supply cuts by major producers as well as optimism that consumption is recovering as lockdowns ease. That optimism may have been very much premature.

    “The public stayed closer to home and consumed less gasoline because they were going to recreational venues nearby rather than traveling long distances around the country,” Lipow said.

    And while the demand may not be there, gasoline prices remain on the rise with the national average price rising for four consecutive weeks and gaining 5.5 cents over the last week to $1.96 a gallon, according to GasBuddy.

    “Average gasoline prices across the U.S. continue to recover as more motorists take back to the roads as states relax previous shelter-in-place orders and begin filling their tanks, driving demand to continue rising,” DeHaan said in a report.

    More motorists may be taking to the roads, but is “more” enough to offset the production surplus that remains in the system? For the answer keep an eye on oil prices, which may resume their slump unless there are far more concrete signs that demand is set to rise substantially from here.

  • Furious Trump Threatens Twitter For "Interfering In The 2020 Presidential Election" After "Misinformation" Fact-Check
    Furious Trump Threatens Twitter For “Interfering In The 2020 Presidential Election” After “Misinformation” Fact-Check

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 19:52

    Hours after Twitter slapped a CNN Fact-Check on a Tuesday tweet by President Trump claiming that mail-in-ballots will be “substantially fraudulent,” Trump lashed out – accusing Twitter of “now interfering in the 2020 Presidential Election” by “saying my statement on Mail-In Ballots, which will lead to massive corruption and fraud, is incorrect, based on fact-checking by Fake News CNN and the Amazon Washington Post.”

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    “Twitter is completely stifling FREE SPEECH, and I, as President, will not allow it to happen!” he added.

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    In a statement emailed to Bloomberg, Trump reelection campaign manager Brad Parscale said that Twitter’s move to add fact-check links to the two tweets demonstrates the social network’s “clear political bias,” adding that “Partnering with the biased fake news media ‘fact checkers’ is only a smoke screen Twitter is using to try to lend their obvious political tactics some false credibility.”

    *  *  *

    Mere hours after Kara Swisher appeared on CNBC to call on Twitter to establish a panel of ‘content reviewers’ who can help the platform tag and remove “misinformation” – ie information that doesn’t neatly fit the narrative being pushed by one of Swisher’s employers, the New York Times – it looks like the company is taking a major step in that direction.

    For the first time, Twitter has tagged tweets by President Trump as “misinformation”, and appended a link where readers can “get the facts” below the tweet’s primary text.

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    The tweet, sent earlier today by the president, was the latest in a series of missives opposing mail-in ballots, which the president has insisted would lead to widespread voter fraud.

    According to Twitter spokesperson Katie Rosborough, who spoke to the Washington Post about the new policy, Trump’s tweets “contain potentially misleading information about voting processes and have been labeled to provide additional context around mail-in ballots.”

    Evidence of widespread voter fraud in the US has yet to materialize, despite the fact that half the country seems to think that Russia somehow rigged the election in President Trump’s favor. To be sure, there have been isolated incidences of voter fraud in recent years that have given some experts reason for concern – though these have been completely ignored, as they don’t fit the narrative that the crime is “totally nonexistent”

    But instead of allowing readers to reason this out for themselves (something that shouldn’t be all that difficult given the thousands of replies calling Trump a racist liar), Twitter is stepping in to play the role of arbiter of truth.

    An opinion column published in today’s WSJ hinted at a notion that has become increasingly obvious in the Trump era: An absolute truth is an extremely rare thing. Even the NYT has allowed a defined, liberal perspective infect its reporting over the years, as the column’s writer argued, and if the media wants to regain the trust of the public, it’s time to acknowledge that it doesn’t have some kind of monopoly on the truth.

    Twitter has reportedly considered affixing warning labels to Trump’s tweets in the past, though Dorsey has insisted that Twitter would never remove a tweet from Trump, as Swisher urged the company to do. However, apparently, a letter sent to Dorsey by the widower of a former intern in then-Congressman Joe Scarborough’s office begging the company to remove several Trump tweets – tweets that allegedly perpetuated a ‘conspiracy’ about the death of the man’s wife – pushed the company over the edge. Though notably those tweets haven’t been touched.

    Now, will Twitter apply the same scrutiny to Joe Biden?

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    And on issues of science, upon which science will twitter rely?

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    Though the company hasn’t said much, we suspect this won’t be an isolated incident. Will twitter now go full-on CCP and hire a ‘propaganda board’ to review all content on the site? We imagine we’ll learn more about the company’s plans in the coming days.

  • India Expands Use Of HCQ To Prevent Coronavirus Based On Three Studies
    India Expands Use Of HCQ To Prevent Coronavirus Based On Three Studies

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 19:45

    India will continue using hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) as a preventative measure against COVID-19, after the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) declared on Tuesday that the drug was found to be very effective with minimal side effects for prophylaxis.

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    The ICMR’s decision was based on three studies they conducted, which resulted in a Friday advisory to expand the drug’s use, according to ThePrint.

    Speaking at a Tuesday press conference, ICMR Director General Dr. Balram Bhargava said “COVID-19 is an evolving field. We don’t know which medicines are working and which are not. There are lots of drugs that have been repurposed for use in COVID whether prophylaxis or as treatment. HCQ is a very old anti-malarial drug that was being widely used and it continues to be widely used. It is safer.

    “We did some invitro study in labs and found that it has antiviral properties. This drug became suddenly popular when the American government also started using it and they got-fast track approval or emergency use authorisation. We also thought that it may be a useful drug for prevention of COVID,” he added.

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    India’s decision to increase the use of HCQ comes as the World Health Organization announced the temporary halt of its clinical trials involving the drug over concerns in a Friday Lancet report that it may do more harm than good.

    The WHO has 3,500 patients from 17 countries enrolled in what it calls the Solidarity Trial. This is an effort overseen by the WHO to find new treatments for COVID-19. The patients in the trial have been randomly assigned to be treated with hydroxychloroquine, which is a common malaria drug, or three other experimental drugs for treating COVID-19 in various combinations. Only the hydroxychloroquine part of the trial is being put on hold. –NPR

    The India studies

    Investigations were conducted by the ICMR at three central government hospitals in New Delhi, which concluded that “amongst healthcare workers involved in Covid-19 care, those on HCQ prophylaxis were less likely to develop SARS-CoV-2 infection, compared to those who were not on it.”

    The advisory also states that the National Institute of Virology in Pune has found in laboratory testing that HCQ reduces the viral load.

    The ICMR also analysed data collected previously, known as retrospective case-control analysis, and found “a significant” relationship between “the number of doses taken and frequency of occurrence of Covid-19 infection in symptomatic healthcare workers who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection”.

    It further said “the benefit was less pronounced in healthcare workers caring for a general patient population”.

    Another observational study was conducted among 334 healthcare workers at the country’s largest public hospital, New Delhi’s All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS). The 248 workers who took HCQ as preventive drug for an average of six weeks had lower incidence of the infection than those not taking the pill. –ThePrint

    As a result of the studies, the Indian government will now administer the drug as a ‘prophylaxis’ to asymptomatic healcare workers in non-Covid hospitals, as well as non-Covid blocks of hospitals which have been earmarked for future Covid patients.

    It will also be prescribed to contract tracers in containment zones, paramilitary, and police personnel involved in Covid-related activities.

    Previous to the announcement, only high-risk individuals (including asymptomatic healthcare workers dealing with coronavirus patients), as well as asymptomatic household contacts of confirmed patients, were receiving the drug.

    “With available evidence for its safety and beneficial effect as a prophylactic drug against SARS-CoV-2 during the earlier recommended 8 weeks period, the experts further recommended for its use beyond 8 weeks on weekly dosage with strict monitoring of clinical and ECG parameters, which would also ensure that the therapy is given under supervision,” reads the ICMR advisory.

    “In clinical practice, HCQ is commonly prescribed in a daily dose of 200mg to 400mg for treatment of diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis and systemic lupus erythematosus for prolonged treatment periods with good tolerance,” it continues – though it added a warning that it should be discontinued if “rare” side-effects such as nausea, abdominal pain, or irregular heartbeat are detected.

    That said, the ICMR studies found nausea in 8.9% of healthcare workers, abdominal pain in 7.3%, vomiting in 1.5%, and cardiovascular issues in 1.9%.

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Today’s News 26th May 2020

  • Remembering The Biggest Empires In Human History
    Remembering The Biggest Empires In Human History

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 02:45

    In 1913, 412 million people lived under the control of the British Empire, 23 percent of the world’s population at that time.

    It remains the largest empire in human history and at the peak of its power in 1920, it covered an astonishing 13.71 million square miles – that’s close to a quarter of the world’s land area. Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes that at its height, it was described as “the empire on which the sun never sets” but of course the sun finally did set on it.

    Today, Britannia no longer rules the waves and its remnants consist of 17 small dependent and unincorporated territories scattered across the world such as the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar.

    Infographic: The Biggest Empires In  Human History | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    The Mongol Empire existed during the 13th and 14th centuries and it is recognized as being the largest contiguous land empire in history. It of course originated in Mongolia and once stretched from Eastern Europe to the Sea of Japan, extending into the Indian subcontinent and the Middle East, covering 9.27 million square miles.

    The Russian Empire comes third on the list with a peak land area of 8.8 million square miles.

    The data for this infographic was published by website World Atlas.

  • Italian Government Urges Unemployed To Become Social-Distancing Snitches
    Italian Government Urges Unemployed To Become Social-Distancing Snitches

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 02:00

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    The Italian government announced intentions Sunday to create an army of social distancing snitches, saying it will recruit 60,000 people to monitor their friends and neighbours’ activities and make sure they are adhering to social distancing policies.

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    Reports indicate that the government will reach out especially to the unemployed for the roles, in particular those who have applied for benefits recently.

    It wants them to become “civic assistants”, who will report infractions on the use of face masks and other state ordered rules in the wake of the coronavirus lockdown.

    The informants will not be given uniforms or badges, and will simply be embedded within the population, meaning anyone could be a government snitch.

    It’s not unprecedented in Italy, given that Rome mayor Virginia Raggi has employed a website where Italians can inform on their neighbors if they see them breaking social distancing rules.

    The announcement was made by the Minister for Regional Affairs and Autonomies Francesco Boccia and the Mayor of Bari (Puglia), Antonio Decaro, who serves as the President of the National Association of Italian Municipalities.

    “We are gradually entering a new normal where there is a gradual recovery of productive activities and citizens are returning to populate cities day after day,” a statement reads.

    Municipalities “will be able to take advantage of the contribution of ‘civic assistants’ to enforce all the measures put in place to counter and contain the spread of the virus, beginning with social distancing.” the statement adds.

    “Now is the time to recruit all those citizens who want to help the country, demonstrating a great civic sense,” the statement concludes.

    Social distancing snitches, reminiscent of party informants in Orwell’s 1984, have also been employed by authorities in other countries.

    “The family had become in effect an extension of the Thought Police. It was a device by means of which everyone could be surrounded night and day by informers who knew him intimately.”

    – George Orwell, 1984

  • China Wants To Deploy Helicopter Drones Along Indian Border As Tensions Soar 
    China Wants To Deploy Helicopter Drones Along Indian Border As Tensions Soar 

    Tyler Durden

    Tue, 05/26/2020 – 01:00

    China’s first domestically built helicopter-drone made its maiden flight last week and could soon be deployed on the Sino-India border, reported Global Times

    The AR500C unmanned helicopter, developed by the state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), is capable of conducting reconnaissance, communication relay, electronic disruption, and attack missions at heights above 15,000 feet. 

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    “The test flight of the AR500C came at a time when China-India border tensions have been flaring up, as Chinese border defense troops have bolstered border control measures,” the tabloid said. 

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    An AR500C was tested at an AVIC facility in Poyang, East China’s Jiangxi Province, in which it conducted several aerial maneuvers on Wednesday (May 20).

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    Chinese air defense expert Fu Qianshao told the tabloid that the helicopter drone does not need a traditional airstrip with long runways, allowing it to be easily deployed in more rugged areas: 

    “The maiden flight of the AR500C marked a significant technological breakthrough in fields such as rotor and engine design,” Fu said, adding that, “thin air on plateaus usually makes it difficult for aircraft to fly.”

    Global Times specifically notes the arrival of AR500C comes as tensions flare-up on the China-India border. Both sides have been massing troops and remain locked in stand-off positions at several points: 

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    India and China are preparing for more turbulence on the border. Several weeks ago, dozens of Indian and Chinese soldiers were injured in a cross-border clash involving fistfights and stone-throwing at a remote but strategically important mountain pass near Tibet. 

    The violent clash is the first between the two countries since 2017, and it seems border disputes between the nuclear-armed neighbors are not going away anytime soon. 

    * * * 

    RT News is reporting Sunday that 800 to 1,000 Chinese troops have crossed into India — certainly, a move that will escalate tensions between both countries. 

  • In Memoriam, 2020
    In Memoriam, 2020

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Robert Gore via StraightLineLogic.com,

    “You don’t fight for your country, you fight for your government.”

    – The Golden Pinnacle, by Robert Gore

    On Memorial Day, America remembers and honors those who died while serving in the military. It is altogether fitting and proper to ask: for what did they die? Do the rationales offered by the military and government officials who decide when and how the US will go to war, and embraced by the public, particularly those who lose loved ones, stand up to scrutiny and analysis? Some will recoil, claiming it inappropriate on a day devoted to honoring the dead.

    However, it is because war is a matter of life and death, for members of the military and inevitably civilians, that its putative justifications be subject to the strictest tests of truth and the most probing of analyses.

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    Millions have marched off to war believing they were defending the US, which implies the US was under attack. Yet, setting aside for a moment Pearl Harbor and 9/11, US territory hasn’t been invaded by a foreign power since the Mexican-American War (arguably—Mexico claimed the territory it “invaded” was part of Mexico), or, if the Confederacy is considered a foreign power, the Civil War. That war ended a century-and-a-half ago, yet every US military involvement since has been justified as a defense of the US. That has gradually attenuated, in a little noted slide, to a defense of US “interests,” which is something far different.

    Only one of those involvements could, arguably, have been said to have forestalled not an invasion, but a possible threat of invasion: World War II. Watching newsreel graphics of Germany’s drives across Europe, Northern Africa, and the USSR, and Japan’s across Asia and the Pacific, it was perhaps understandable that Americans believed the Axis powers would eventually come for them, especially after Pearl Harbor. However, that was a one-off attack by the Japanese to disable the US’s Pacific Fleet. To launch an invasion of the US, Japan, a smaller, less populated nation whose economy depended on imports of vital raw materials, including oil, would have had to cross the Pacific and fight the US, and undoubtedly Canada, on their home territories. The Pearl Harbor attack, provoking America’s entry into the war, proved a strategic blunder for the Japanese. An invasion would have been ludicrous. Similarly, Germany, up to its eyeballs in a two-front war, couldn’t conquer Russian winters or Great Britain across the English Channel. How was it supposed to either cross the Atlantic, or the USSR and hostile guerrillas, then the Pacific, and attack the US? That, too, would have been ludicrous.

    The 9/11 attack was also a one-off. A majority of the attackers came not from a US enemy but rather a supposed ally, Saudi Arabia. They received funding and other support from people in that country and perhaps its government. A conventional war against a “state sponsor of terrorism” might have required war against Saudi Arabia; it is still not clear how involved its government was. That option was never considered. Rather, the Bush administration performed metaphysical gymnastics and launched the first war in history against a tactic: terrorism. Although the jihadists who perpetrated 9/11 were self-evidently not the vanguard of an invasion, the terrorism they employed was deemed a threat to US interests in the Middle East, and to life and property in the US. However, none of our subsequent involvements in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt, and Yemen have been necessary to maintain US citizens’ freedoms, the nation’s territorial integrity, or its lives and property.

    There are undoubtedly many epitaphs on tombstones in this country to the effect: Here lies the deceased, who died defending America, and not one that reads: Here lies the deceased, who died defending American interests. However, the latter is in most cases more accurate than the former. Who decides the interests for which members of America’s military will die? Those considering entering the military today must look beyond the slogans, contemplate the risks of being killed, wounded, dismembered, paralyzed, or psychologically traumatized, and ask themselves: why and for whom are these risks being borne? You don’t fight for your country, you fight for your government. Is it worth risking one’s life for the US government?

    In 1821, John Quincy Adams said America had not gone “abroad in search of monsters to destroy,” and while we wished those seeking liberty well, theirs was not our fight (see “In Search of Monsters,” SLL, 4/11/15). Since then, America has searched for monsters, found, and in some cases, destroyed them. However, as the poison of power has worked its evil on the minds and souls of those who possess it, the monsters have become more ethereal, apparitions conjured like creatures in the closet by children when they go to bed. The war on terrorism creates more terrorists, the monsters of choice since 9/11. The government still pays occasional lip service to “democratic values” and “civil liberties,” but allies itself with regimes which have no more fealty to those values and liberties than the “tyrants” the government opposes. “Defending America” and “Promoting Our Way of Life” have become transparent pretexts for American power and domination unbounded. As Adams so presciently warned, the search for monsters has turned the government itself into a monster, the biggest threat to Americans’ “inextinguishable rights of human nature.”

    Those who have fought and died to defend America and its freedoms are noble beyond measure. Those who pay self-serving tribute to their valor, but make war and expend lives as means to corrupt ends are evil beyond redemption. Honor the former; expose and oppose the latter.

  • Kim's New 'Nuclear-Capable Submarine' About To Be Deployed: South Korea
    Kim’s New ‘Nuclear-Capable Submarine’ About To Be Deployed: South Korea

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 23:00

    A day after Kim Jong Un oversaw a meeting of his top generals which resolved to continue to advance North Korea’s “nuclear war deterrence”, South Korea’s Yonhap news service reports that Pyongyang’s new ballistic missile-capable submarine is ready to imminently enter service

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    Images released last July via KCTV broadcast.

    “South Korean intelligence authorities said they have been closely monitoring the North’s activities regarding preparations for the launching of a new submarine it first unveiled in July 2019,” Yonhap underscores, citing military and intelligence sources.

    “The submarine, believed to be a 3,000-ton one, is capable of carrying three SLBMs and to have been under construction at its naval base in Sinpo on its east coast,” the report continues.

    “It seems almost ready to be deployed,” a South Korean military source told Yonhap. “We are closely watching when the North will hold a launching ceremony.”

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    Crucially the new submarine has been touted as capable of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles with greater ranges, or submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), which would significantly add to Pyongyang’s strategic nuclear launch capabilities

    In July of last year North Korean state media published photos of what was then dubbed Kim’s new “powerful submarine” – which appeared indeed more massive than anything seen out of the country before. 

    Pyongyang is currently believed to have a fleet of aging, low-tech submarines numbering at about 70, but they are considered loud (and thus can easily be detected) and most importantly incapable of firing nuclear-armed ballistic missiles. However, in 2016 the north successfully test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in a bid to establish faster deterrence capabilities.

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    2014 state media photo of Kim in one of NK’s ageing, smaller subs.

    It’s believed that the Sunday meeting of the Workers’ Party of Korea Central Military Commission (CMC) was in preparation of a potential major announcement that the new submarine could be ready to enter service. 

    Specifically the Sunday meeting chaired by Kim set forthnew policies for further increasing the nuclear war deterrence of the country and putting the strategic armed forces on a high alert operation,” according to state media.

    The state-run outlet noted that officials also took “crucial measures for considerably increasing the firepower strike ability of the artillery pieces.”

    Seoul officials worry precisely that this could mean the soon roll-out of the new SLBM-capable large submarine. If not a game-changer altogether, then it would at least provide serious leverage in the north’s stalled talks with Washington, which is likely precisely the point.

  • CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Death Rate – Media Chooses To Ignore COVID-19 Realities
    CDC Confirms Remarkably Low Death Rate – Media Chooses To Ignore COVID-19 Realities

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 22:30

    Authored by Daniel Horowitz via ConservativeReview.com,

    Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.

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    The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public.

    For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%.

    Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% – almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.

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    Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.

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    Plus, ultimately we might find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2% – exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.

    More importantly, as I mentioned before, the overall death rate is meaningless because the numbers are so lopsided. Given that at least half of the deaths were in nursing homes, a back-of-the-envelope estimate would show that the infection fatality rate for non-nursing home residents would only be 0.1% or 1 in 1,000. And that includes people of all ages and all health statuses outside of nursing homes. Since nearly all of the deaths are those with comorbidities.

    The CDC estimates the death rate from COVID-19 for those under 50 is 1 in 5,000 for those with symptoms, which would be 1 in 6,725 overall, but again, almost all those who die have specific comorbidities or underlying conditions. Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident. And schoolchildren, whose lives, mental health, and education we are destroying, are more likely to get struck by lightning.

    To put this in perspective, one Twitter commentator juxtaposed the age-separated infection fatality rates in Spain to the average yearly probability of dying of anything for the same age groups, based on data from the Social Security Administration. He used Spain because we don’t have a detailed infection fatality rate estimate for each age group from any survey in the U.S. However, we know that Spain fared worse than almost every other country. This data is actually working with a top-line IFR of 1%, roughly four times what the CDC estimates for the U.S., so if anything, the corresponding numbers for the U.S. will be lower.

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    As you can see, even in Spain, the death rates from COVID-19 for younger people are very low and are well below the annual death rate for any age group in a given year. For children, despite their young age, they are 10-30 times more likely to die from other causes in any given year.

    While obviously yearly death rates factor in myriad of causes of death and COVID-19 is just one virus, it still provides much-needed perspective to a public policy response that is completely divorced from the risk for all but the oldest and sickest people in the country.

    Also, keep in mind, these numbers represent your chance of dying once you have already contracted the virus, aka the infection fatality rate. Once you couple the chance of contracting the virus in the first place together with the chance of dying from it, many younger people have a higher chance of dying from a lightning strike.

    Four infectious disease doctors in Canada estimate that the individual rate of death from COVID-19 for people under 65 years of age is six per million people, or 0.0006 per cent – 1 in 166,666, which is “roughly equivalent to the risk of dying from a motor vehicle accident during the same time period.” These numbers are for Canada, which did have fewer deaths per capita than the U.S.; however, if you take New York City and its surrounding counties out of the equation, the two countries are pretty much the same. Also, remember, so much of the death is associated with the suicidal political decisions of certain states and countries to place COVID-19 patients in nursing homes. An astounding 62 percent of all COVID-19 deaths were in the six states confirmed to have done this, even though they only compose 18 percent of the national population.

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    We destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic. Will they ever admit the grave consequences of their error?

  • COVID-19 Pandemic Fuels Bicycle Boom
    COVID-19 Pandemic Fuels Bicycle Boom

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 22:00

    As social distancing is the order of the day, riding a packed subway to get around is not exactly what the doctor prescribed. Add to that the need for people to stay active as gyms and sports centers across the nation are closed and, as Statista’s Felix Richter notes, you‘ve got the perfect recipe for a bicycle boom, which is exactly what the industry has been seeing for the past two months.

    Infographic: COVID-19 Pandemic Fuels Bicycle Boom | Statista

    You will find more infographics at Statista

    According to figures from the NPD Group’s retail tracking service, bicycle sales in the United States soared in March 2020, with some categories seeing growth rates of more than 100 percent compared to the previous year.

    “Consumers are looking for outdoor- and kid-friendly activities to better tolerate the challenges associated with stay-at-home orders, and cycling fits the bill well,” said Dirk Sorenson, sports industry analyst at NPD, adding that kids bikes and affordable adult leisure bikes were selling particularly well.

    Survey data from U.S. bike manufacturer Trek gives us an idea why cycling is so popular these days. 85 percent of Americans consider it safer than public transportation during the coronavirus outbreak, while 63 percent of respondents feel that it helps to relieve stress/anxiety associated with the pandemic.

  • Privatize The PBS And The NPR
    Privatize The PBS And The NPR

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 21:30

    Submitted by Walter Block, Chair and Professor of Economics Loyola University New Orleans

    In this era of the pandemic, it is even more important than otherwise that the general public has unbiased information at its disposal. Unhappily, most of the major media is located on the left side of the political spectrum. There is nothing that can be done about the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Boston Globe and that ilk. They are all private concerns, and, hence, at least quasi-legitimate. However, at least the lack of balance can be addressed, if only in a small marginal way.

    Journalists have long and properly been called members of the fourth estate. What are the other three? That’s easy: the executive, the legislative and the judiciary. All four are necessary and important, at least according to the democratic theory which undergirds the political economy of most civilized nations on the planet.

    But there is a crucial difference between the first three estates and the fourth. All members of the former are elected either directly or indirectly through the ballot box. No one casts any political vote for journalists. Any writer can stand up on his two hind legs and declare himself a member of this crucially important group.

    In days gone by, all that was needed was some paper and ink and perhaps, in the more modern era, a mimeograph machine (remember those?). Nowadays, the prerequisites are electricity, internet connection and perhaps a computer.

    The function of the legislature is to pass laws; the executive is to carry them out. The judiciary settles any disputes that may arise between the other two, and interprets the laws and the constitution. What is the function of the fourth estate?

    It is to keep an eye, an eagle eye if you will, on the other three. Yes, this estate is not part of government, but it is no less indispensable in keeping that institution under strict surveillance.

    This leads us to the Public Broadcasting Service and National Public Radio. The PBS and the NPR are strongly associated with government. Their budgets are to a great degree predicated upon tax revenues. Therefore, it cannot at all function as an investigative tool for the latter. No dog bites the hand that feed it, at least not for long. How, then, can we expect PBS and the NPR to “bite” their master? Ok, maybe there will be a few slight nips at its ankles from time to time in order to establish their “independence” but there will not be any heavy chomping, at least not to a degree deemed dangerous by the powers that be.

    There is an aphorism in law: you cannot be a judge in your own case. To be sure, this “public” media is not a judge in its own case. But it is indeed a judge in the case of the entity to which it is beholden. As such, it cannot be expected to fully function in its role as watchdog over the first three estates.

    If the PBS and the NPR do not bite deeply into government failures, mismanagements, and there are certainly such from time to time, they do not deserve to be a member of the fourth estate. It is not an independent media institution. It is akin to an arm of government. What is needed is an arm’s length distance between the fourth, and the first three estates.

    Let me try again. The media is like a referee in a hockey game. If he picks up the stick and tries to shoot the puck through the net, the “game” is ruined. If the fourth estate is beholden to the state, it cannot function in its proper role.

    Then, there is the minor point of economics. As in the case of the post office and  other parts and parcels of government, these organizations need never go broke if they does not satisfy their paying customers or advertisers. In sharp contrast, this is not at all the case for the periodical which brings you this op ed. It is entirely vulnerable to market forces.

    PBS and the NPR should be cut off from the public trough and thereby be better enabled to serve customers. This should also be done if we value our democratic institutions.

    Here are some words of wisdom from John Stuart Mill’s “On Liberty” that are pertinent:

    If the roads, the railways, the banks, the insurance offices, the great joint-stock companies, the universities, and the public charities, were all of them branches of the government; if in addition, the municipal corporations and local boards, with all that now devolves on them, became a departments of the central administration; if the employees of all these different enterprises were appointed and paid by the government, and looked to government for every rise in life; not all the freedom of the press and popular constitution of the legislature would make this or any other country free otherwise than in name.”

  • Mapped: The State Of Facial Recognition Around The World
    Mapped: The State Of Facial Recognition Around The World

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 21:00

    From public CCTV cameras to biometric identification systems in airports, facial recognition technology is now common in a growing number of places around the world.

    In its most benign form, facial recognition technology is a convenient way to unlock your smartphone. However, as Visual Capitalist’s Iman Ghosh notes, at the state level, facial recognition is a key component of mass surveillance, and it already touches half the global population on a regular basis.

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    Today’s visualizations from SurfShark classify 194 countries and regions based on the extent of surveillance.

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    Click here to explore the full research methodology.

    Let’s dive into the ways facial recognition technology is used across every region.

    North America, Central America, and Caribbean

    In the U.S., a 2016 study showed that already half of American adults were captured in some kind of facial recognition network. More recently, the Department of Homeland Security unveiled its “Biometric Exit” plan, which aims to use facial recognition technology on nearly all air travel passengers by 2023, to identify compliance with visa status.

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    Perhaps surprisingly, 59% of Americans are actually in favor of implementing facial recognition technology, considering it acceptable for use in law enforcement according to a Pew Research survey. Yet, some cities such as San Francisco have pushed to ban surveillance, citing a stand against its potential abuse by the government.

    Facial recognition technology can potentially come in handy after a natural disaster. After Hurricane Dorian hit in late summer of 2019, the Bahamas launched a blockchain-based missing persons database “FindMeBahamas” to identify thousands of displaced people.

    South America

    The majority of facial recognition technology in South America is aimed at cracking down on crime. In fact, it worked in Brazil to capture Interpol’s second-most wanted criminal.

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    Home to over 209 million, Brazil soon plans to create a biometric database of its citizens. However, some are nervous that this could also serve as a means to prevent dissent against the current political order.

    Europe

    Belgium and Luxembourg are two of only three governments in the world to officially oppose the use of facial recognition technology.

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    Further, 80% of Europeans are not keen on sharing facial data with authorities. Despite such negative sentiment, it’s still in use across 26 European countries to date.

    The EU has been a haven for unlawful biometric experimentation and surveillance.

    – European Digital Rights (EDRi)

    In Russia, authorities have relied on facial recognition technology to check for breaches of quarantine rules by potential COVID-19 carriers. In Moscow alone, there are reportedly over 100,000 facial recognition enabled cameras in operation.

    Middle East and Central Asia

    Facial recognition technology is widespread in this region, notably for military purposes.

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    In Turkey, 30 domestically-developed kamikaze drones will use AI and facial recognition for border security. Similarly, Israel has a close eye on Palestinian citizens across 27 West Bank checkpoints.

    In other parts of the region, police in the UAE have purchased discreet smart glasses that can be used to scan crowds, where positive matches show up on an embedded lens display. Over in Kazakhstan, facial recognition technology could replace public transportation passes entirely.

    East Asia and Oceania

    In the COVID-19 battle, contact tracing through biometric identification became a common tool to slow the infection rates in countries such as China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore. In some instances, this included the use of facial recognition technology to monitor temperatures as well as spot those without a mask.

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    That said, questions remain about whether the pandemic panopticon will stop there.

    China is often cited as a notorious use case of mass surveillance, and the country has the highest ratio of CCTV cameras to citizens in the world—one for every 12 people. By 2023, China will be the single biggest player in the global facial recognition market. And it’s not just implementing the technology at home–it’s exporting too.

    Africa

    While the African continent currently has the lowest concentration of facial recognition technology in use, this deficit may not last for long.

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    Several African countries, such as Kenya and Uganda, have received telecommunications and surveillance financing and infrastructure from Chinese companies—Huawei in particular. While the company claims this has enabled regional crime rates to plummet, some activists are wary of the partnership.

    Whether you approach facial recognition technology from public and national security lens or from an individual liberty perspective, it’s clear that this kind of surveillance is here to stay.

  • 500 Doctors Write To Trump Warning Lockdown Will Cause More Deaths
    500 Doctors Write To Trump Warning Lockdown Will Cause More Deaths

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 20:30

    Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

    More than 500 doctors have added their names to a letter to President Trump urging him to end the lockdown, warning that it will cause more death than the coronavirus itself.

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    In the letter, sent last week, doctors described the lockdown as a “mass casualty incident”.

    “We are alarmed at what appears to be the lack of consideration for the future health of our patients. The downstream health effects of deteriorating a level are being massively under-estimated and under-reported. This is an order of magnitude error,” it states.

    Written by Simone Gold, a California emergency medical specialist, and further signed by hundreds of doctors, the letter adds “The millions of casualties of a continued shutdown will be hiding in plain sight, but they will be called alcoholism, homelessness, suicide, heart attack, stroke, or kidney failure.”

    “In youths it will be called financial instability, unemployment, despair, drug addiction, unplanned pregnancies, poverty, and abuse,” the letter further urges.

    It notes that “Suicide hotline phone calls have increased 600%,” while sales of alcohol have increased 300% to 600%.

    “Because the harm is diffuse, there are those that hold it does not exist. We, the undersigned, know otherwise,” the letter concludes.

    While globalists have urged that lockdowns need to continue, medical and economic experts across the board in multiple countries are warning that the loss of life will be much greater than that caused directly by the virus itself, if lockdowns are not scrapped.

    A leaked study from inside the German Ministry of the Interior has found that the impact of the country’s lockdown could end up killing more people than the coronavirus due to victims of other serious illnesses not receiving treatment.

    A Guardian analysis has found that there have been thousands of excess deaths of people at home in the UK due to the lockdown.

    Professor Richard Sullivan also warned that there will be more excess cancer deaths in the UK than total coronavirus deaths due to people’s access to screenings and treatment being restricted as a result of the lockdown. Physicians in the US are issuing the same warnings over cancer screening.

    Sullivan’s comments were echoed by Peter Nilsson, a professor of internal medicine and epidemiology at Lund University, who said, “It’s so important to understand that the deaths of COVID-19 will be far less than the deaths caused by societal lockdown when the economy is ruined.”

    In addition, new figures from the UK’s Office of National Statistics show that the number of deaths from flu and pneumonia is three times higher than the total number of coronavirus deaths this year.

    A data analyst consortium in South Africa asserts that the economic consequences of the country’s lockdown will lead to 29 times more people dying than the coronavirus itself.

    Experts have also warned that there will be 1.4 million deaths from untreated TB infections due to the lockdown.

  • Clinton-Appointed Judge Lets Florida Felons Vote, Could Add 'Hundreds Of Thousands' To November Rolls
    Clinton-Appointed Judge Lets Florida Felons Vote, Could Add ‘Hundreds Of Thousands’ To November Rolls

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 20:00

    A federal judge in Florida on Sunday declared key portions of the state’s felon voting law unconstitutional in a ruling that could allow hundreds of thousands of new voters being added to the rolls just in time for the 2020 presidential election.

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    In a 125-page ruling, US District Judge Robert Hinkle, a Clinton appointee, slammed the state’s “pay-to-vote” system which the GOP-controlled Florida Legislature passed nearly a year ago, which ended the state’s lifetime ban on voting for most ex-felons, but requires that they repay legal financial obligations first, according to Politico.

    “This pay-to-vote system would be universally decried as unconstitutional but for one thing: each citizen at issue was convicted, at some point in the past, of a felony offense,” wrote Hinkle. “A state may disenfranchise felons and impose conditions on their reenfranchisement. But the conditions must pass constitutional scrutiny.”

    “Whatever might be said of a rationally constructed system, this one falls short in substantial respects,” he added.

    Hinkle’s ruling could lead to a major addition to the state’s voting rolls just months before the election in the battleground state. President Donald Trump, who narrowly won the state four years ago, has made winning Florida a key part of his reelection strategy.

    One study done by Daniel Smith, a University of Florida political professor, found that nearly 775,000 people with felony convictions have some sort of outstanding legal financial obligation. –Politico

    Hinkle claims that requiring people with felony convictions to pay legal fees – which are separate from restitution or fines ordered by the court – before being allowed to vote violated the US Constitution’s ban on poll taxes.

    “[T]axation without representation led a group of patriots to throw lots of tea into a harbor when there were barely united colonies, let alone a United States,” wrote Hinkle. “Before Amendment 4, no state disenfranchised as large a portion of the electorate as Florida.”

    Hinkle did, however, reject arguments by the groups and individuals who sued that the Florida’s law was discriminatory.

    The ruling was immediately applauded by the long-line of groups that were part of the legal challenge, which spanned three different lawsuits.

    Today’s decision is a landmark victory for hundreds of thousands of voters who want their voices to be heard,” Paul Smith, vice president of the Campaign Legal Center, said in a statement. “This is a watershed moment in election law. States can no longer deny people access to the ballot box based on unpaid court costs and fees, nor can they condition rights restoration on restitution and fines that a person cannot afford to pay.” –Politico

    And just like that, Trump lost Florida?

  • Who Deserves Impeachment More – Trump Or Schiff?
    Who Deserves Impeachment More – Trump Or Schiff?

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 19:30

    Authored by Daniel Lazare via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Donald Trump was impeached last winter for one technical violation of the law and a host of made-up ones. The technical violation was his move to block $391 million in Ukrainian military aid.

    It was a violation because it because it interfered with Congress’s exclusive spending powers. But it was purely technical because presidents traditionally have wide latitude in determining how expenditures are made. Back in 1801, Thomas Jefferson’s treasury secretary, Albert Gallatin, argued that the executive branch should be allowed “a reasonable discretion” while, 160 years later, John F. Kennedy had no scruples about unilaterally moving more than $1 million – a lot of money in those days – from one budget account to another to pay for a pet project known as the Peace Corps. No one thought much of it at the time, so Trump’s decision to hold up an appropriation in 2019 doesn’t seem like a big deal.

    And it wasn’t, as the December 18 articles of impeachment made clear. Rather than dwelling on the blockage itself, they quickly moved on to the real question at hand, which is why it occurred. The answer, of course, was to pressure newly-elected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to launch an investigation into why a notorious oligarch named Mykola Zlochevsky had given Joe Biden’s son Hunter a lucrative no-show job and why the then-vice president had then pushed for the firing of a prosecutor looking into Zlochevsky’s company, Burisma Holdings.

    Since any such investigation would have reflected poorly on Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, Democrats charged that Trump was seeking to “obtain an improper personal political benefit” by “enlist[ing] a foreign power in corrupting democratic elections.” After welcoming Russian interference in 2016, he was now angling for Ukrainian interference in 2020 – or so they maintained. But the charge never made sense for one all-important reason: however much Trump might benefit, the public had a legitimate interest in learning why Biden had allowed his son to enter into an obviously corrupt relationship at a time when he was supposedly serving as Obama’s point man in rooting out Ukrainian corruption.

    It’s as if 1920s Chicago crime buster Eliot Ness had looked the other way while a close relative took a job with Al Capone. So while Democrats made a big show of moral indignation, Senate Republicans were unmoved with the partial exception of notorious featherbrain Mitt Romney, and Trump was acquitted.

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    But now let’s take a look at Schiff’s sins and see how they compare. Back in 2017, he was the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee and therefore the man Democrats counted on to lead the charge that Trump had colluded with the Kremlin in order to steal the election. He did so with gusto. Quoting from a dossier prepared by ex-British MI6 agent Christopher Steele, he regaled a March 2017 committee hearing with tales of how Russia bribed Trump adviser Carter Page by offering him a hefty slice of a Russian natural-gas company known as Rosneft and of how Russian agents boosted Trump’s political fortunes by hacking Hillary Clinton’s emails and passing them on to WikiLeaks. Conceivably, such acts could have been purely coincidental, Schiff acknowledged.

    “But it is also possible,” he went on, “maybe more than possible, that they are not coincidental, not disconnected, and not unrelated, and that the Russians used the same techniques to corrupt U.S. persons that they have employed in Europe and elsewhere. We simply don’t know, not yet, and we owe it to the country to find out.”

    Hours later, he assured MSNBC that the evidence of collusion was “more than circumstantial.” Nine months after that, he informed CNN’s Jake Tapper that the case was no longer in doubt: “The Russians offered help, the campaign accepted help, the Russians gave help, and the president made full use of that help.” In February 2018, he told reporters: “There is certainly an abundance of non-public information that we’ve gathered in the investigation. And I think some of that non-public evidence is evidence on the issue of collusion and some … on the issue of obstruction.”

    The press lapped it up.

    But now, thanks to the May 7 release of 57 transcripts of secret testimony – transcripts, by the way, that Schiff bottled up for months – we have a better idea of what such “non-public information” amounts to.

    The answer: nothing.

    A parade of high-level witnesses told the intelligence committee that either they didn’t know about collusion or lacked evidence even to venture an opinion. Not one offered the contrary view that collusion was true.

    “I never saw any direct empirical evidence that the Trump campaign or someone in it was plotting [or] conspiring with the Russians to meddle with the election,” testified ex-Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. Obama Attorney General Loretta Lynch told the committee that no one in the FBI or CIA had informed her that collusion had taken place. Sally Yates, acting attorney general during the Obama-Trump transition, was similarly noncommittal. So were Obama speechwriter Ben Rhodes and former acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe. David Kramer, a prominent neocon who helped spread word of the Steele dossier in top intelligence circles, was downright apologetic: “I’m not in a position to really say one way or the other, sir. I’m sorry.”

    But rather than admit that the investigation had turned up nothing, Schiff lied that it had – not once but repeatedly.

    Let that sink in for a moment. Collusion dominated the headlines from the moment Buzzfeed published the Steele dossier on Jan. 10, 2017, to the release of the Muller report on Apr. 18, 2019. That’s more than two years, a period in which newspapers and TV were filled with Russia, Russia, Russia and little else. Thanks to the uproar, acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein secretly discussed using the Twenty-fifth Amendment to force Trump out of office, while an endless parade of newscasters and commentators assured viewers that the president’s days were numbered because “the walls are closing in.”

    Schiff’s only response was to egg it on to greater and greater heights. Even when Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller issued his no-collusion verdict – “the investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities,” his report said – Schiff insisted that there was still “ample evidence of collusion in plain sight.”

    “I use that word very carefully,” he said, “because I also distinguish time and time again between collusion, that is acts of corruption that may or may not be criminal, and proof of a criminal conspiracy. And that is a distinction that Bob Mueller made within the first few pages of his report. In fact, every act that I’ve pointed to as evidence of collusion has now been borne out by the report.

    So Trump colluded with the Kremlin, but in a non-criminal way? Even if Mueller got Schiff in a headlock and screamed in his ear, “No collusion, no collusion,” the committee chairman would presumably reply: “See? He said it – collusion.”

    The man is an unscrupulous liar, in other words, someone who will say anything to gain attention and fatten his war chest, which is why contributions flowing to his re-election campaign have risen from under $1 million a year to $10.5 million since the Russia furor began. The man talks endlessly about the Constitution, patriotism, his father’s heroic service in the military, and so on. But the only thing Adam Schiff really cares about is himself.

    Trump’s sins are manifold. But with unerring accuracy, Schiff managed to zero in on the one sin that didn’t take place. Considering that the $391 million was destined for ultra-right military units whose members sport neo-Nazi regalia and SS symbols as they battle pro-Russian separatists in the eastern Ukraine, Schiff’s crimes are just as bad, if not worse. Ladies and gentlemen, we give you the next candidate for impeachment, the congressman from Hollywood – Adam Schiff!

  • JPMorgan: The Surge In Gold Is A Sign Of Eroding Confidence In Central Bank-Generated Money
    JPMorgan: The Surge In Gold Is A Sign Of Eroding Confidence In Central Bank-Generated Money

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 19:00

    The past few months have been painful for many FX traders, as a result of a global economic crisis has left the major reserves currencies – USD, EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP – clustered at rate levels between roughly 0% to -0.5%, which doesn’t allow rate differentials to inspire much movement amongst them, and is also one reason a G10 currency index like DXY hasn’t moved much during this crisis.

    But the lack of dispersion within this bloc shouldn’t be “misread as investor comfort with these reserve assets in an era of record budget deficits from high starting levels of indebtedness, in turn motivating long-term concerns about sovereign risk in Europe and inflation or fiscal irresponsibility elsewhere” as JPMorgan writes in its Weekly Asset View report authored by John Normand.

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    Indeed, as the bank ominously continues, these background concerns may partly explain why Gold, “which is the world’s legacy reserve asset”, has made or is nearing all-time highs versus the euro, yen, sterling, Swiss franc and the dollar (9% from an all-time high) even as the trade-weighted dollar creeps higher.

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    And while JPM takes a measured approach in qualifying what this move in gold means for the dollar, saying “this isn’t anything close to the dollar crisis that is foretold every few years in response to extreme loose Fed policy or rising twin deficits (fiscal and current account)” explaining that such an “outcome would deliver instead high-volatility USD depreciation versus all reserve currencies due to capital flight”, the bank’s conclusion is nonetheless disturbing for its brutal honesty:

    … instead, take this Gold move as a sign of eroding confidence in central bank-generated money generally, a trend that will probably continue until enough growth returns to put fiscal policy on a more efficient path.

    But what is enough growth does not return to put fiscal policy on a more efficient path? What if, instead, the entire world turns into China where the only economic growth comes from flooding the economy with debt, resulting in massive malinvestment and an avalanche of defaults just waiting to begin?

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    Indeed, what if the world is has crossed the Rubicon where the marginal utility of debt is collapsing and it takes exponentially more leverage to create even the smallest uptick in growth.

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    What happens to gold then?

  • "The US Is Bluffing": China Claims Trump Too "Weakened" By Pandemic To Intervene In Hong Kong
    “The US Is Bluffing”: China Claims Trump Too “Weakened” By Pandemic To Intervene In Hong Kong

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 18:29

    In his overnight market commentary, Rabobank’s Michael Every laid out an interesting hypothesis why markets continue to fade the risk of a serious escalation in tensions between the US and China: “within serious HK money circles there is absolute certainty that the US is now an EU-style paper tiger and has no stomach for a real fight, and that Trump is so beholden to Wall Street that he won’t dare act.

    And while Every himself disagrees with this sanguine assessment, saying this stance “captures the self-confidence in Beijing but utterly fails to capture the bipartisan anger in DC, or the fact that both sides are using Beijing as a stick to beat each other with in the 2020 presidential election, or that the US has financial weapons as fearsome as its military, or that the Fed is there to prop up the stock market anyway”, he appears to have a point regarding China’s “self-confidence.”

    In an editorial published in China’s Global Times, the authors claim that Trump is indeed nothing but a paper tiger and that “US talk of Hong Kong a nothingburger” in response to Beijing’s formulation of a national security law. To be sure, the article is filled with the usual jingoist allegations, first claiming that “the US is again leading the Western camp in besieging China” a stance that is driven by the “compression of Western values”, resulting from “the rise of emerging markets and developing countries becoming increasingly independent.”

    The editorial then makes a rather valid point that how China frames national security in the context of Hong Kong is entirely its own matter and not that of the US:

    Fighting the national security law for Hong Kong is not a universal value and cannot withstand serious scrutiny. Isn’t national security the top priority for each and every country? Washington has always used national security as an excuse to suppress normal commercial activities. Saying that the national security law in Hong Kong hinders the city’s high degree of autonomy and ends its freedom will hardly fool all Westerners, let alone manipulate the whole international community.

    China indeed has every right to pursue whatever it sees as its national interest; the real question is who will suffer more from the explicit return of Hong Kong under China rule. And while Trump has claimed that Hong Kong will be crippled as a financial gateway to China should it lose its special trade status with the US, China counters that the US is no longer a critical partners, read source of foreign funds (a curious position considering China’s capital account is about to turn negative and will, more than ever, rely on outside sources of capital). Instead, the Global Times argues that as Hong Kong’s relationship with the US fades, it will be replaced by a more powerful one with China:

    The biggest pillar for Hong Kong’s status as an international financial center is its role as a window to the Chinese mainland as well as its special relationship with the mainland economy.

    The special trade status given by the US is important, but is not a decisive factor to determine whether Hong Kong is a financial center or not. As long as the economy in the Chinese mainland keeps booming, Hong Kong will not decline. If the US changes its policy toward Hong Kong, that will result in a lose-lose situation. But Hong Kong will be able to adjust and maintain its prosperity with the support of the Chinese central government.

    But what is most remarkable about the op-ed is the view that as a result of the US being “entangled” with the coronavirus epidemic, which has claimed 100,000 American lives, Trump will be unable to mobilize the “tools and resources” he needs to intervene externally:

    As the US is entangled in the COVID-19 epidemic, its actual ability to intervene externally is weakening. The White House claimed it would impose sanctions on China, but the tools and resources at its disposal are fewer than those it could mobilize before the outbreak. It is only bluffing.   

    If this is indeed the fundamental position of China’s leadership re Covid-19 which just “slipped” through in an op-ed written by a state-owned newspaper – that the US’ own fight with the pandemic has left it too weak to respond to foreign policy challenges – it would provide China with a convenient motive to make sure the pandemic which started in Wuhan goes global and cripples any ability by the US to oppose China’s imminent intervention in Hong Kong.

    The editorial concludes by claiming that while the Western world appears united, when it is faced with the risk of losing the “Huge Chinese market”, any opposition to Beijing would disappear:

    The entire Western world will not follow the US. China is a huge market and the US is unable to provide enough compensation to offset the losses if Western countries become alienated from China. Values still have a strong appeal, but they cannot replace the fundamental interests of a country in pursuit of development. Besides, China has not intervened in the way of life of Western countries. Taking sides based on values at a disproportionate economic cost is not supposed to be the logic of international relations in the 21st century.

    Judging by how most European countries have acted vis-a-vis China in recent years, vocally objecting to this and that in the front while assuring Beijing that nothing will change in the back, not to mention countless US tech firm just begging for access to the Chinese market, this observation is spot on. 

    The author then writes that “as long as China acts based on facts, resolutely formulates the national security law for Hong Kong, strictly limits the law’s scope to ensure both national security and the city’s stability under the “one country, two systems” principle, while safeguarding the basic rights and interests of the Hong Kong people”, which of course is all just the propaganda strawman that Xi Jinping is using to justify a historic move in Hong Kong, “China will take the initiative in Hong Kong affairs” and “the US stirring of Western public opinion will lead to nothing.”

  • California Church Asks US Supreme Court To Intervene In Lockdown Battle After Clinton, Obama Judges Strike Down
    California Church Asks US Supreme Court To Intervene In Lockdown Battle After Clinton, Obama Judges Strike Down

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 18:00

    A California church and its bishop have asked the US Supreme Court to step in after the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals struck down their emergency application to reopen amid the coronavirus pandemic, in defiance of executive orders issued by Gov. Gavin Newsom.

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    Lawyers for the South Bay United Pentecostal Church and Biship Arthur Hodges filed with the USSC after the 9th Circuit panel split 2-1, with Judges Barry Silverman and Jacqueline Nguyen – appointed by Clinton and Obama respectively – wrote in their Friday order “We’re dealing here with a highly contagious and often fatal disease for which there presently is no known cure,” adding “In the words of Justice Robert Jackson, if a ‘court does not temper its doctrinaire logic with a little practical wisdom, it will convert the constitutional Bill of Rights into a suicide pact.’”

    Apparently a fatality rate below 0.3% counts as ‘often fatal,’ and it would be a ‘suicide pact’ to allow people to worship freely while accepting the well-established risks of contracting COVID-19.

    The panel’s third judge, Trump appointee Daniel Collins, weighed in with an 18-page dissent arguing that Gov. Newsom’s orders intrude on religious freedom protected by the First Amendment, according to Politico.

    “I do not doubt the importance of the public health objectives that the State puts forth, but the State can accomplish those objectives without resorting to its current inflexible and over-broad ban on religious services,” wrote Collins, who noted that the Governor’s orders allow many workplaces to open, while religious gatherings remain banned even if they can meet social distancing requirements imposed on other permitted activities.

    “By explicitly and categorically assigning all in-person ‘religious services’ to a future Phase 3 — without any express regard to the number of attendees, the size of the space, or the safety protocols followed in such services8 — the State’s Reopening Plan undeniably ‘discriminate[s] on its face’ against ‘religious conduct,” Collins continued.

    The legal dispute may turn on how much weight the justices choose to give to a 115-year-old Supreme Court precedent, Jacobson v. Massachusetts, which upheld a mandatory vaccination scheme for smallpox.

    Lawyers for Newsom have argued that the decision gives states broad powers during a public health emergency and effectively supersedes typical protections for First Amendment activity, including religious practice.

    While the 1905 high court ruling remains on the books with no case since where the justices have grappled with similar issues, in his dissent from the Friday 9th Circuit order, Collins sounded skeptical about the sweep of the century-old case.

    “Even the most ardent proponent of a broad reading of Jacobson must pause at the astonishing breadth of this assertion of government power over the citizenry, which in terms of its scope, intrusiveness, and duration is without parallel in our constitutional tradition,” he said. –Politico

    In other parts of the country, challenges to pandemic lockdowns have been met with mixed results in federal courts. For example, New Orleans’ Fifth Circuit and the Cincinnati Sixth Circuit have granted emergency relief to churches in defiance of state orders, while Chicago’s 7th Circuit joined the San Francisco-based 9tth circuit in declining to intervene.

    Read the rest of the report here.

  • Hedge Fund CIO: "We Have Reached The Point Where The Entirety Of Future Prosperity Has Been Pulled To The Present"
    Hedge Fund CIO: “We Have Reached The Point Where The Entirety Of Future Prosperity Has Been Pulled To The Present”

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 17:40

    By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

    The Fed presides over the world’s largest economy. Treasury claims otherwise, but the Fed is also guardian of the world’s reserve currency. From this position of power, global central banks were drawn by force of gravity to adopt Fed policies. Over the past decade, global central banks gravitated to the Fed’s policy mix, lowering rates, expanding liquidity, spurring a historic rise in global debt and leverage. Entering 2020, the world had the most homogeneous policy mix since Roman rule. And, as in all things living, lack of diversity reduces resiliency.

    Fed policy dominance had complex, unintended consequences, some of which we can observe. For instance, it relieved politicians of the task of governing. Each crisis was easily solved with monetary magic, pulling future demand to the present. This allowed politicians to avoid making tough choices between spending for today versus investing for tomorrow. Without such vital debates, we borrowed from our youth to spend on our ageing. Student debt is one of the many such manifestations. Wildly inflated asset prices are another.

    Monetary policy dominance taken to its logical conclusion leads to a world where the entirety of future prosperity has been pulled to the present. At that end point, no matter how many monetary magic wands are waved, the real economy is unresponsive, monetary policy is utterly impotent. As you approach this point, monetary policy gradually losses effectiveness. Somewhere close to the end, politicians are forced to start governing again, making choices. But unlike central bankers who are all the same, each politician is uniquely different, heterogeneous.

    As politicians fill the vacuum left by impotent central bankers, they deploy different tools – fiscal, tax, trade, exchange rate, regulatory, immigration and military. They try to coordinate with central bankers, but this produces only illusory benefits because monetary policy once impotent remains so until the system reboots. Today, we are transitioning from a world led by homogeneous central bankers who used a few identical policies in similar ways to one led by heterogeneous politicians who will be using a wide range of policies in wildly different ways.     

    Global central bank homogeneity produced an era of policy predictability. This encouraged economic actors to leverage balance sheets and business strategies to a stable future. Their actions, like share buybacks and just-in-time manufacturing, were reflexive in that each incremental investment dampened market and economic volatility, reinforcing expectations for a stable future. Naturally, reflexive processes lead to extreme outcomes. Without quite realizing it, economic actors accepted increased systemic fragility in exchange for higher profitability.

    Trends unfold when the world changes. Prices adjust as we recognize that the future is likely to look different from the past. Underlying change is often driven by natural cycles. They include cycles in weather, debt, leverage, capital investment, innovation, politics, population, international relations. In late stage, they are sometimes amplified by mass hysteria. Systematic trend-following strategies just finished their worst decade of performance in 120yrs. So did long volatility strategies. It was a decade of homogeneity, policy predictability. It’s over.

     

  • Goldman: The Default Cycle Has Started
    Goldman: The Default Cycle Has Started

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 17:26

    Perhaps inspired by our recent articles showing that “Loan Defaults Hit 6 Years High” and “Bankruptcy Tsunami Begins: Thousands Of Default Notices Are “Flying Out The Door“, Goldman writes this morning that with businesses shuttered and job losses mounting rapidly, “there is growing concern over the ability of borrowers to service their debt obligations and the resulting risks to financial stability.”

    In response, Goldman “assesses the likely scale of economy-wide credit losses, the exposure of creditors to those losses, and the potential risks to financial stability and the banking sector” to conclude that “rising bankruptcies and delinquencies suggest the default cycle has started.”

    How did Goldman get to that assessment?

    Looking at corporate credit, the bank first looked at corporate debt, noting that nonfinancial corporate debt grew by over 60% since 2011 and recently rose to an all-time high as a share of GDP (Exhibit 1, left), leading to growing concern even prior to the virus that corporate defaults could rise dramatically in the next downturn. Meanwhile, the sharp decline in revenues across many industries has left a large share of companies with negative cash flow, and rising bankruptcy filings and cases suggest the corporate default cycle has started.

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    Unlike the financial crisis, the bank finds that a unique feature of this downturn “is the wide variation in industry exposure to the virus, with physical constraints on spending, occupational health risks, and geographical variation in the virus  outbreak affecting industries differently.”

    Goldman then performs an analysis of which industries are most impacted by credit losses due to the coronacrisis, and summarizes the findings in the next chart, which shows a coarser breakdown of virus-impacted industries, as well as their market share in the high-yield corporate bond space.

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    The energy sector stands out both in terms of its size and default risks, given the collapse in oil demand, its disproportionately large footprint in the corporate bond market relative to its GDP share, and the heavy amounts of leverage in the sector. Roughly half of high-yield corporate bonds are in the energy or virus-impacted industries, according to Goldman which adds that its credit strategists “estimate that the 12-month trailing high-yield default rate will increase to 13% by the end of 2020, similar to the peak rate reached during the Global Financial Crisis (Exhibit 3, bottom).”

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    In addition to energy debt, another key area of concern – as we have repeatedly pounded the table in recent weeks – is commercial real estate (CRE), given signs of overheating and overstretched valuations prior to the virus, as well as the unprecedented declines in demand in industries such as lodging, healthcare, and retail.

    Commercial real estate prices have outpaced single family house prices since the prior downturn (chart below, left), with CRE capitalization rates falling to historically low levels. Late payments on commercial mortgages have picked up sharply in recent months, suggesting mounting pressures (chart below, right).

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    Tangentially, and as also discussed here extensively before, the unique nature of this downturn suggests that “variation in virus exposure will play a large role in determining the breadth and depth of credit losses in commercial real estate.” Delinquencies by property type already show wide dispersion, with virus-exposed property types such as lodging and retail showing much higher delinquency rates than less exposed property types such as self-storage. This contrasts with the prior real estate bust, when delinquencies were roughly evenly distributed across property types. 

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    Overall, Goldman expects a deeper contraction of property incomes than during the financial crisis period, given the heavy stresses to rents and occupancy rates facing many properties, and overall losses on commercial mortgages similar to those observed during the financial crisis.

    Meanwhile, even as consumers have been slow to telegraph stress, kept afloat thanks to hundreds of billions in transfer payments, significant downside risks to household debt also remain, particularly if unemployment insurance benefits are not extended, and if higher out-of-pocket medical expenses due to loss of employer-based health insurance push more households to default.

    Who Will Bear The Losses

    We next look to see where credit losses are most likely to be felt. The Fed’s Financial Accounts suggests that the banking system plays a large role in providing credit for commercial real estate and overall corporate borrowing, two areas of greater concern. Household debt is also largely held by banks, particularly residential mortgages, credit card loans, and auto loans, while student debt is largely held by the federal government.

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    Municipal debt, another area of concern, is largely held by households, mutual funds and pensions funds, and insurance companies, and thus likely poses a smaller threat to financial stability. Lastly, a growing share of corporate lending—especially in riskier categories, such as leveraged loans—is now done by nonbank financial institutions, including collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), asset managers, hedge funds, and private equity companies, and such lending is not well captured in the Fed’s Financial Accounts. TIC data provides some evidence that non-bank financial institutions and insurance companies own much of US CLO securities, a growing area of concern. Crucially, CLOs do not generally permit early redemptions and are thus less susceptible to runs, which is why Goldman strategists do not see CLOs posing a major risk to financial stability, “despite the likely significant pickup in defaults on leveraged loans.”

    The next chart shows a breakdown of financial asset holdings by creditor, excluding financial institutions such as hedge funds and private equity companies where data is less readily available. Banks are highly exposed to many areas of credit, while households, mutual funds, and pensions are largely more exposed to equities. Insurance companies are somewhere in between, and hold a significant amount of exposure to corporate debt, including CLOs.

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    The bottom line is simple: contrary to conventional wisdom that banks are now far, far safer than they were during the financial crisis, they bear the broadest exposure to the coming default wave which will soon test just how safe they are.

    Risks to the Banking System

    As Goldman reminds us, the Fed’s Financial Stability Report warned that financial sector vulnerabilities including for the banking sector, are likely to be significant in the near term, while the April FOMC minutes indicated concern that banks could come under greater stress, particularly if more adverse economic scenarios were realized. The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) indicated that lending standards tightened significantly, particularly for commercial and industrial (C&I) and CRE loans, with most banks citing a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook, as well as a reduced tolerance for risk, as reasons for tightening lending standards. Loan loss provisions across banks have increased significantly in preparation for the rise in defaults and delinquencies. 

    Curiously, only a modest percentage of banks cited a deterioration in their capital position as playing a role in tightening lending standards in the first quarter. In addition, residential real estate remains the largest category of lending in the banking system by a significant margin. And while Goldman believes that given that this downturn was not precipitated by a housing crisis, losses on this particularly large category will likely be smaller than during the GFC, the question of how quickly consumer cash flows return to normal will be critical in answering just how significant residential losses will be in a few months time.

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    That said, one clear worry is that certain industries are heavily exposed to the virus, which may lead to larger risks to the banking system if the lending of particular banks, or the banking system as a whole, is highly concentrated in these industries.

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    Next, Goldman assesses the vulnerability of bank balance sheets as of 2019 Q4, and estimates the losses on total bank equity from losses across asset categories. The bank assumes similar losses on C&I and CRE lending as in the 2008 crisis, but a smaller hit on residential mortgages and consumer loans (this may be a costly mistake). The bank then calculates the estimated losses as a percent of total bank equity capital, estimating that losses on C&I, CRE, consumer, and residential real estate loans would amount to roughly 15% of total bank equity, compared to around 30% of total bank equity at risk heading into the Global Financial Crisis, using ex-post realized losses across the same categories. Two main reasons account for this difference: first, losses on the large residential real estate category are likely to be smaller, and second, bank equity levels are higher today than before the crisis. Once again, these optimistic assumptions may end up having to be substantially revised higher.

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    Finally, the bank looks at lending exposure of the largest banks individually: bank-level data can reveal differences across banks and highlight whether there are a significant number of banks with large exposures to at-risk categories. Naturally, using the optimistic assumptions profiled above, Goldman finds that while there is dispersion among the largest banks in their exposure to losses, almost all of the largest banks today are less vulnerable than the median large bank was prior to the financial crisis, thus invalidating the entire analysis for the simple reason that the current crisis may end up being far more dire to bank loans than 2008/2009 if an economic recovery isnt forthcoming in short notice.

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    In summary, Goldman finds that while financial stability concerns appear manageable, significant downside risks remain. A slower than expected recovery and a prolonged downturn would likely stress the banking system further, and a growing share of riskier lending is now done by less regulated nonbank financial institutions, where risks are harder to assess. Its conclusion: “Should a more adverse scenario arise, Fed officials have indicated the willingness to further help facilitate the provision of credit by the financial system.”

    In other words, if the coming default crisis ends up being as bad as the GFC, the Fed will end up owning a whole lot more bankrupt bonds and loans than just Hertz.

  • The Bank of Japan Was The Biggest Buyer Of Japanese Corporate Bonds In April
    The Bank of Japan Was The Biggest Buyer Of Japanese Corporate Bonds In April

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 17:00

    Our observation that as of this moment the Fed owns, via the HYG and JNK ETFs, bonds of bankrupt rental company Hertz sparked inexplicable outrage in the bullish camp. We find this confusing: how is the Fed owning bonds either a bullish or bearish case? It merely confirms that capitalism is now dead, that we have centrally-planned, “fake markets” as Bank of America put it, and which as Deutsche Bank further clarified, “these are administered markets and market outcomes will be dictated by the policy goals of the Fed and Treasury, and the tools they select to implement policy.”

    That bulls are taking this fact as an affront, simply shows just how vested they too are in perpetuating a myth that markets still exist (as if it is somehow the imploding economy and not the Fed’s $4 trillion in liquidity injections since March that has boosted the stock market) while pretending they have some idea of what happens next based on “fundamentals” or “data” when in reality the only thing that matters is how much liquidity the Fed injects on any given day, making strategists, analysts and “paywalled pundits” irrelevant (an outcome which is devastating to their financial health).

    In any case, shortly after our article, the Fed apologists scrambled to write articles such as this one whose sole counterarguments are outright obtuse: the amount of bankrupt bonds held by the Fed is so small so please don’t worry, and in any event, the ETFs will likely sell them.

    First of all, anyone who claims to “know” what the ETFs will do with the defaulted bonds likely has a barrel of snake oil they need offloaded with immediate delivery, and their motives should be closely scrutinized from now on. As we explicitly said in our article, it is most certainly the case that the Fed will seek to offload its exposure – similar to what the ECB did when it ended up holding bonds of bankrupt Steinhoff but not before sparking a major scandal in financial cricles – after all the last thing Powell needs is another Congressional hearing inquiring how the Fed buying junk bonds – and junk bonds from massively levered, defaulted zombie corporations at that – is helping US workers. If anything, this merely cements our core argument that the process of rushing to buy corporate bonds was a panicked scramble meant to preserve confidence in a bursting asset bubble, one that was rushed from the beginning without almost any thought as to the consequences.

    And since said “paywalled pundits” appears to have missed what we said, we will repeat it: the way the Fed’s purchases of corporate bonds are structured, especially as the US nears a default tsunami, it is only a matter of time before Powell ends up holding dozens if not hundreds of defaulted CUSIPs both directly and via ETFs. Will Powell then quietly dump all of them to pretend the Fed never intended to lose the Treasury’s funds by propping up insolvent companies? He will of course try. But if he fails, and if the ETFs do not offload their exposure to defaults, the Fed will most certainly be part of the bankruptcy process, courtesy of the debt-to-equity conversion of the underlying securities.

    We also eagerly look to find just which independent, third-party entity buys the defaulted Hertz bonds held by HYG and JNK on behalf of the Fed to absolve Powell of his dismal decisionmaking.

    The truth is that nobody knows what happens next, now that the Fed is an active intermediary in capital markets and is purchasing highly risky paper that defaulted just days after the Fed started buying ETFs. Anyone who claims otherwise is a complete hack.

    As for that other “counterargument”, that “neither the Fed nor the Treasury has significant exposure to HTZ“, well- yes of course – the program has been in operation for just over a week: it better not have significant exposure to Hertz. What about in 3 months, or 6 months or one year from now when dozens of the companies that make up the JNK and HYG ETFs also file Chapter 11? Or what about the “fallen angel” companies that sell bonds directly to the Fed and end up having to file themselves. Will it be significant then?

    Here is the answer: now that the Fed has gone the path of the BOJ and is directly intervening in capital markets, if not yet buying stocks (we can’t wait for the same bulls to explain how the Fed buying the SPY is great news for everyone), we can look to the Bank of Japan for examples of just how “insigificant” its exposure to the corporate bond market is.

    WEll, according to SMBC Nikko Securities analyst Riyon Matsuyama, the Bank of Japan was the biggest buyer of Japanese corporate bonds in April compared with other categories for the first time since June last year, as Bloomberg reported overnight.

    That sounds pretty significant to us: when the central bank is not only the buyer of last resort, but buyer of biggest resort, that would suggest that something is very, very wrong. It also suggests that there are virtually no other buyers (although we are confident the abovementioned bulls can “explain” how this too is “not one of the things to worry about”). In any case, it would also suggest that the BOJ owns a lot of corporate bonds.

    And the Fed is hot on the BOJ’s footsteps.

    According to Matusyuama – who calculated using data released by the Japan Securities Dealers Association this week and BOJ – the BOJ’s purchases as a proportion of all notes transacted in April rose to 30%, the highest level since June 2018.

    This surge in holdings should not come as s surprise: after all, at the end of April, the BOJ decided to double its purchases of corporate bonds and sure enough, that’s what it is doing even if it means not only crowding out all other market players, but in the process destroying what little was left of price discovery. Why? Because the BOJ buys corporate bonds with money it creates out of thin air, and with no regard for fundamentals, resulting in a complete disconnect between fundamentals and asset prices.

    Maybe this is why the abovementioned “paywalled pundits” are so angry: the fact that they are now relegated to merely frontrunning central bank purchases (something which even Blackrock embraced, admitting that’s the only way to make money now adding that it “will follow the Fed and other DM central banks by purchasing what they’re purchasing, and assets that rhyme with those”) means that any of their so-called insights are nothing more than Fed cheerleading garbage. Which is fine – after all that’s the centrally-planned world we live in, but just own up to it and stop pretending to have some deep, premium-pricing insight (which costs $29.95 per month) about the US or global economy which translates into an outlook on prices, investing, the universe and everything.

  • "Worse Than The Great Depression" – Peter Schiff Fears '70s Stagflation "On Steroids" Ahead
    “Worse Than The Great Depression” – Peter Schiff Fears ’70s Stagflation “On Steroids” Ahead

    Tyler Durden

    Mon, 05/25/2020 – 16:30

    Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

    Money printing by the Fed and Congress is off the charts. The Federal Reserve doubled its balance sheet in a matter of months, and Congress is pumping out trillions of dollars in spending bills to fight the economic crisis caused by the Covid 19 lockdown. The really scary thing is not the massive money printing, but the fact that absolutely nobody seems to care about the risk to the U.S. dollar.

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    Money manager Peter Schiff thinks he knows why, and explains:

    “(Back in 2008-2009,) even Larry Kudlow was worried about what the Fed was doing, but nobody is worried about it now.  The reason is they have been lulled into this false sense of complacency in that we got away with it the last time… and there was no negative consequence.

    We didn’t have runaway inflation and did not have loss of confidence in the dollar. So, there was no price to be paid…

    Since we got away with it before, they think they will get away with it again, and I think they are completely wrong…

    All we did was inflate a bigger bubble, but now this bubble has popped, and it found the mother of all pins in the Coronavirus that put a gaping hole in it, so the air is coming out much faster. Now, they are trying to reflate this thing. We are going to suffer the consequences, not only what we are doing now, but what we did back then…

    When is all this inflation going to move out of the stock market and into the supermarket? I am surprised this has not already happened, but I do think we are at the end of the line… Here’s what is going on. We are going to have this massive inflation tax. We are seeing price increases at the supermarkets.

    What has to break is the U.S. dollar, and that’s coming, according to Schiff, “We are going to overwhelm with dollar supply…”

    We are printing all this money. The Fed is buying all these bonds. . . . This is it. The Fed is going all in on QE. There is no limit. They are printing all this money, and, so, ultimately, the dollar is going to tank. It hasn’t happened yet, but it will. That’s when the party really ends. That’s when there is massive pressure on consumer prices. That’s when there is massive (upward) pressure on interest rates. . . . This could be an inflationary depression. We could have hyper-inflation. We didn’t have anything like that in the Great Depression. During the 1930’s, prices went down, and people got some relief with lower prices. That made the downturn not as bad. Imagine high unemployment with the cost of living skyrocketing. That’s what we are heading for. It’s going to be the 1970’s only on steroids because it’s going to be a much deeper economic contraction with a much bigger increase in consumer prices.”

    Schiff says, “When we reopen, nothing will be the same because we will not be able to reflate this bubble.”

    So what do you do? Precious metals are a no-brainer investment. Schiff says,

    It’s not that gold is gaining in value, it’s that fiat currencies are all losing value. Gold is the one stable factor. It’s the one thing governments can’t create out of thin air. Every currency in the world, except the dollar, are hitting new record lows against gold. You need more Euros, Rands or Aussie dollars to buy an ounce of gold. . . . The U.S. dollar is losing value more slowly, but this is going to change. We are going to win the race to the bottom

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    People need to convert their dollars now into gold or silver. If you think the price of gold is going up now, wait til the dollar is the weakest of the currencies. . . . That’s going to accelerate the appreciation of gold . . . and that’s going to put gold in the spotlight as the replacement to the U.S. dollar as the main reserve asset for global central banks.”

    Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with money manager and economic expert Peter Schiff, founder of Euro Pacific Capital and Schiff Gold.

    *  *  *

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Today’s News 25th May 2020

  • Escobar On China: One Country, Two Sessions, Three Threats
    Escobar On China: One Country, Two Sessions, Three Threats

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 23:30

    Authored by Pepe Escobar via The Saker blog,

    The key takeaways of the Two Sessions of the 13th National People’s Congress in Beijing are already in the public domain.

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    In a nutshell: no GDP target for 2020; a budget deficit of at least 3.6% of GDP; one trillion yuan in special treasury bonds; corporate fees/taxes cut by 2.5 trillion yuan; a defense budget rise of a modest 6.6%; and governments at all levels committed to “tighten their belts.”

    The focus, as predicted, is to get China’s domestic economy, post-Covid-19, on track for solid growth in 2021.

    Also predictably, the whole focus in the Anglo-American sphere has been on Hong Kong – as in the new legal framework, to be approved next week, engineered to prevent subversion, foreign interference “or any acts that severely endanger national security.” After all, as a Global Times editorial stresses, Hong Kong is an extremely sensitive national security matter.

    This is a direct result of what the Chinese observer mission based in Shenzhen learned from the attempt by assorted fifth columnists and weaponized black blocs to nearly destroy Hong Kong last summer.

    No wonder the Anglo-American “freedom fighter” front is livid. The gloves are off. No more free lunch. No more paid protests. No more black blocs. No more hybrid war. Baba Beijing’s got a brand new bag.

    The three threats

    It’s absolutely essential to position the Two Sessions within the larger, incandescent geopolitical and geoeconomic context of the de facto new Cold War – hybrid war included – between the US and China.

    So let’s focus on an American insider: former White House national security adviser Lieutenant General HR McMaster, author of the upcoming Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World.

    This is as clear cut as it gets in terms of how the “free world,” in Pentagonese, perceives the rise of China. Call it the view of the industrial-military-surveillance-media complex.

    Beijing, per McMaster, is pursuing a policy of “co-option, coercion and concealment,” centered on three axes:

    1. Made in China 2025;

    2. the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative;

    3. and a “military-civil fusion” – arguably the most “totalitarian” vector, centered on creating a global intel network in espionage and cyber-attacks.

    Call these the three threats.

    Whatever the spin across the Beltway, Made in China 2025 remains alive and well – even if the terminology has been skipped.

    The target, to be reached via $1.4 trillion in investments, is to profit from the knowledge accumulated by Huawei, Alibaba, SenseTime Group and others to design a seamless AI environment. In the process, China should be reinventing its technological base and restructuring the entire semiconductor supply chain to be domestic-based. These are all non-negotiables.

    Belt and Road, in Pentagonese, is synonymous of “economic clientelism” and a “ruthless debt trap.” But McMaster gives away the game when he describes the cardinal sin as “the goal of displacing the influence of the United States and its key partners.”

    As for the “military-civil fusion,” in Pentagonese, that’s all about fast tracking “stolen technologies to the army in such areas as space, cyberspace, biology, artificial intelligence and energy.” It amounts to “espionage and cyber-theft.”

    In sum: “pushback” is essential against those China’s commies becoming “even more aggressive in promoting its statist economy and authoritarian political model.”

    Chinese diaspora speaks

    Apart from this binary, quite pedestrian assessment, McMaster does make an interesting point:

    “The US and other free nations should view expatriate communities as a strength. Chinese abroad – if protected from the meddling and espionage of their government – can provide a significant counter to Beijing’s propaganda and disinformation.”

    So let’s compare it with the insights of a true master in Chinese diaspora: the redoubtable professor Wang Gungwu, born in Surabaya in Indonesia, who will be 90 years old this coming October and is the author of a delightful, poignant book of memoirs, Home is Not Here.

    For outsiders there’s no better explanation of the predominant frame of mind across China:

    “At least two generations of Chinese have learnt to appreciate that the modern West has valuable ideas and institutions to offer, but the turmoil of much of the 20th century has also made them feel that the Western European versions of democracy might not be that important for China’s national development. The majority of Chinese seem to approve of policies that place order and stability above freedom and political participation. They believe that this is what the country needs at this stage and resent being regularly criticized as politically unliberated and backward.”

    Wang Gungwu stresses how the Chinese think quite differently from the “universalist” trajectory of the West, and thus reaches the heart of the matter:

    “Should the PRC succeed in providing an alternative route to prosperity and independence, the US (and elsewhere in the West) would see that as a fundamental threat to its (and Western European) dominance in the world. Those who feel threatened would then do everything they can to stop China. I think this is what most Chinese believe is what American leaders are prepared to do.”

    No US Deep State assessment can possibly stand when ignoring the wealth of Chinese history:

    “The nature of China’s politics, whether under emperors, warlords, nationalists or communists, was so rooted in Chinese history that no individual or group of intellectuals could offer a new vision that could appeal to the majority of the Chinese people. In the end, that majority seemed to have accepted the legitimacy of PRC’s victory on the battlefield coupled with the capacity to bring order and renewed purpose to a rejuvenated China.”

    Remixed long telegram

    Federal prosecutor Francis Sempa, author of America’s Global Role and an adjunct professor of political science at Wilkes University, has compared McMaster’s assessment of the China “threat” to the legendary “long telegram” written by George Kennan in 1947, under the pseudonym X.

    The “long telegram” designed the subsequent strategy of containing the Soviet Union, complete with the building up of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It was the prime Cold War blueprint.

    The current, pedestrian long telegram remix might also have long legs. Sempa, to his credit, at least admits that “McMaster’s timid policy recommendations will not lead to the gradual break-up or mellowing of Chinese Communist power.”

    He suggests – what else – “containment,” which should be “firm and vigilant.” And he recognizes, to his credit, that it should be “based on an understanding of Chinese history and Indo-Pacific geography.” But then, once again, he gives away the game – in true Zbigniew Brzezinski fashion: what matters most is “the need to prevent a hostile power from controlling the key power centers of the Eurasian landmass.”

    It’s no wonder the US Deep State identifies Belt and Road and its spin-offs such as the Digital Silk Road and the Health Silk Road across Eurasia as manifestations of a “hostile power.”

    The whole fulcrum of US foreign policy since WWII has been to prevent Eurasia integration – now actively pursued by the Russia-China strategic partnership. New Silk Roads across Russia – part of Putin’s Great Eurasia Partnership – are bound to merge with Belt and Road. Putin and Xi will meet again, face-to-face, in mid-July in St. Petersburg, for the twin summits of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and will further discuss it in extensive detail.

    So presiding, in silence, over the Two Sessions, is the understanding by the Chinese leadership that getting back to domestic business, fast, is essential for a renewed push on the grand chessboard. They know the industrial-military-surveillance-media complex will pull no punches to deploy every possible geopolitical and geoeconomic strategy to sabotage Eurasia integration.

    Made in China 2025; Belt and Road – the post-modern equivalent of the Ancient Silk Road; Huawei; China’s manufacturing pre-eminence; breakthroughs in the fight against Covid-19everything is a target.  And yet, in parallel, nothing – from a remixed long telegram to stale ruminations on the Thucydides Trap – will derail a rejuvenated China from hitting its own targets.

  • Get Ready For Disinfected Dice As Vegas Plans Reopening 
    Get Ready For Disinfected Dice As Vegas Plans Reopening 

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 23:00

    Nevada’s gaming industry could reopen as soon as June 4, Gov. Steve Sisolak stated Friday. The Nevada Gaming Control Board will meet next week with health officials to determine which sanitation protocols are needed at casinos before reopening. 

    “The board is firmly aware of its statutory duty to protect the public health and welfare of the Silver State’s citizenry while allowing the gaming industry to flourish through strict regulation,” Sisolak said in a statement.

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    Casinos are expected to submit reopening safety plans to the board next week. When gamblers step inside the casino floor, they will be immediately greeted by staff and screened at temperature check stations. All employees and patrons will be required to wear masks. Table games will have reduced capacity, for instance, there could be three players per blackjack table instead of six. Also, one could expect sanitation stations across the entire property — a move to limit the spread of the virus. 

    While playing games, dice will be disinfected between shooters, chips, and cards will be routinely swapped out. Resort guests at some casinos will go all-digital via their smartphone — this means phones will be used for touchless check-in, used as room keys, and even used to read menus at the facility’s restaurant(s). 

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    “You’re going to see a lot of social distancing,” Sean McBurney, GM at Caesars Palace, told AP News. “If there’s crowding, it’s every employee’s responsibility to ensure there’s social distancing.”

    Wynn Resorts properties and The Venetian will deploy thermal cameras on gaming floors to intercept people with feverish conditions. 

    Bill Hornbuckle, CEO and president of MGM Resorts International, said his company is losing $10 million per day during the shutdown. He said only 2 of its 10 Strip properties would open first: Bellagio and New York-New York.

    Hornbuckle said because of social distancing and new rules, and there will be a lot “fewer people, by control and by design” in his casinos. 

    Caesars Entertainment is expected to reopen Caesars Palace and the Flamingo Las Vegas, then Harrah’s Las Vegas and the casino floor at The LINQ hotel-casino.

    Robert Lang, executive director of the Brookings Mountain West, a think tank at the University of Nevada, said large crowds are not expected to return quickly to the Vegas strip. 

    Lang is correct, just like the airline industry – which Boeing CEO’s Dave Calhoun recently warned air travel growth might not return to pre-corona levels for several years – the same should be noted for Vegas. 

    With Vegas imploded, and 1 in 3 jobs in the state tied to the resort industry, Nevada’s unemployment rate has jumped to almost 30% in nine weeks, the worst-ever unemployment rate in state history and the highest in the country. 

    Read: “Money Is Running Out” – Vegas Struggles To Survive Shutdown

    Getting back to normal, or merely revisiting 2019 growth rates, for the Vegas casino industry and or the economy as a whole, will take several years or more. 

  • China Sets Yuan Fix At Weakest Since 2008
    China Sets Yuan Fix At Weakest Since 2008

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 22:32

    Just hours after China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that “some” in America were pushing relations to a “new Cold War”, Beijing made it clear how it intends to retaliate in this new paradigm: by doing the one thing that infuriates Trump more than anything, devaluing its currency.

    After the PBOC fixed the yuan at 7.0939 on Friday, the PBOC set the Monday USDCNY midpoint at 7.1209, which was not only weaker than the expected fix of 7.1205 but the weakest fixing since 2008.

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    Zooming in on the past 10 days shows the sharp bounce in the past three days in both the fixing, the onshore and the offshore yuan, the last of which is now just shy of the lows hit during the March crash, if still below the all time lows hit on Sept 2, 2019 when the USDCNH spiked as high as 7.1940 in response to the escalating trade war.

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    That said, some – such as Bloomberg – had a different expectation for the fixing, which they saw as 7.1220, which would in turn mean a stronger than expected fixing, and one suggesting that the PBOC has activated its countercyclical buffer to slow the drop of the onshore yuan as the offshore yuan slumps. Their conclusion, which is counter to sellside expectations, is that this marks a shift in the PBOC’s countercyclical adjustments and “could be seen as a warning shot toward speculators betting on a weaker yuan.”

    Whether Bloomberg’s fixing model is correct, or consensus expectations for a stronger fix are right, remains to be seen however if indeed it is China’s stance to devalue the yuan in response to the sharp deterioration in Sino-US relations then expect the offshore yuan to take the lead and to keep sliding, giving the PBOC cover for further devaluation and telegraphing how it plans on responding to the “cold war” and any future escalations by the US.

    Ironically, the very same Bloomberg, in a different report, notes that “the spread between spot USD/CNH and USD/CNY is likely to become more volatile in coming days, driven by a widening bias. A combination of U.S.-China political tension and unrest in Hong Kong will provide a negative feedback loop into the offshore yuan.”

    The PBOC can be expected to maintain a tight grip on the daily yuan fixing and enforce the 2% fluctuation range. But there is no such constraint for the offshore yuan, which is free to roam, only being pulled back into line by FX arbitrageurs or in response to speculation about central bank intervention.

    As author Mark Crankfield writes, “the CNH forwards curve can also be expected to see an upward trajectory. The spread spiked to more than 10 big figures several times during previous periods of yuan turbulence. A similar outcome is likely in the near term, as investors consider what the threat of a new cold war will mean for risk assets.

    One thing to note: the last time the offshore yuan was here, the S&P was at 2,300.

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    Finally, here is a reminder from Rabobank’s Michael Every why in the current environment of escalating hostility between the US and China, the only thing that matters is the Yuan, and why in the not too distant future, the Chinese currency may have a 10-handle in front of it.

    This time last year, when we were all still going abroad regularly (right now just ‘outside’ is becoming a psychological barrier if I am honest) I was traveling with a presentation titled “Clause is Cause”. This argued that from a geostrategic ‘Von Clausewitz’ perspective, not a neoliberal “Let’s assume world peace” version, the US would at some point realise the USD/Eurodollar was a weapon it could wield vs. China, and when it did we would see three key strings cut: trade; tech; and then capital flows. The first was evident during the trade war – which has not been concluded is likely to get far worse soon; the second is also abundantly clear on a variety of fronts, much to Silicon Valley’s chagrin; and potentially, now we see the start of that third step – because if the US does block this first USD50bn going in, other such steps will follow, just as they did on the previously unthinkable idea of US tariffs on China.

    CNH is right to be selling off, albeit in a traditionally limited fashion, because if you don’t buy from China and you don’t help China up the value-chain and you don’t invest in China then China is not going to be getting much USD liquidity at all. The US hawks probably don’t get the Eurodollar iron logic there; they are likely just pressing buttons in anger. The outcome would be the same nonetheless.

    I can hear the market bulls and technocrats of the world saying “But China has USD3 trillion in reserves!” Perhaps. Most think it’s far lower than that. And not earning USD means you have to dig into that stockpile. And when you do, the PBOC either has to contract the local money supply (because every USD is backed by 7.xx CNY on the other side of the balance sheet) or it just creates new CNY anyway and supply-demand sees CNY move sharply lower – as we have been seeing in all other EM FX. Looking at the drop in BRL, ARS, ZAR, TRY, etc., or even THB, this would be how we would get to the ‘unthinkable’ 8 (9? 10?) handle in CNY. That would also crush those other EM crosses in tandem – and AUD and NZD, as the former tries to navigate its own geopolitical spat with Beijing.

    And so with the Fed having taken over most US capital markets which have now lost most if not all of their discounting and signaling capabilities, keep an eye on that USDCNH: ironically, it may be the last true market stress indicator left.

  • Dreaming Of Visiting Japan? The Government Might Pay Half Your Expenses To Jumpstart Tourism
    Dreaming Of Visiting Japan? The Government Might Pay Half Your Expenses To Jumpstart Tourism

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 22:30

    Authored by Elias Marat via TheMindUnleashed.com,

    If you’re currently stuck at home and facing government lockdown orders in response to the coronavirus pandemic, we won’t blame you if you’re currently fantasizing about the vacations you want to take once the world returns to relative normalcy.

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    While books, YouTube travel vlogs, and even open world video games offer great distractions, in many ways they also offer serious fuel to our wanderlust – inspiring us to do nothing more than get out of our current environs and delve deep into other cultures, climes, and cuisines.

    And of all the most amazing tourist destinations out there, one country stands tall with its dazzling combination of ancient culture and stunning modernity – and that country is Japan.

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    And now, Japanese officials are reportedly considering a plan that would see the government potentially step up to pay half of the travel expenses of foreign travelers to the Land of the Rising Sun.

    However, the plan is merely just a proposal – at least for the time being.

    Since the coronavirus pandemic became a global concern earlier this year, the brakes have been hit on global travel – as well as the lucrative tourism industries of various countries.

    This has been no less true in Japan, where a mere 2,900 tourists visited the country this April – a vast and precipitous drop from the 2,926,685 people who visited the country last April, according to leading Japanese newspaper The Mainichi. On a nationwide level, the country has seen a staggering 99.9 percent year-on-year drop in tourism.

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    To prevent the continuation of the brutal collapse of tourism, the Japanese government is now considering giving the green light to a 1.35 trillion yen (over $12.5 billion USD) fund to lure back foreign visitors. Japanese Tourism Agency chief Hiroshi Tabata said that the scheme could begin as soon as July if COVID-19 infections continue to subside.

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    It remains unclear what exactly would be covered under the plan in terms of airfare or which categories of hotels and lodging.

    Japan is currently facing its lowest number of visitors from abroad since 1964. Normally, spring is one of the country’s most popular tourist seasons, especially because it’s cherry blossom season, when the blossoming trees around Tokyo, Kyoto and Mt. Fuji attract thousands of sightseers. This year, however, visitors have largely been restricted to these deer – which, needless to say, doesn’t do much for the tourism industry in terms of generating revenue.

    Additionally, Japan has barred entry to nationals and passenger flights from roughly 100 nations. This includes China – one of Japan’s major tourism markets, which had been hitting record highs during the winter amid warming people-to-people relations between the Chinese and Japanese people, who have been plagued by poor bilateral ties in the past.

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    To make matters worse, Japan has also been forced to postpone the upcoming 2020 Summer Olympic Games that were due to take place in Tokyo.

    The country’s other landmarks and attractions have also been temporarily closed, including Tokyo Disneyland, Tokyo DisneySea, Universal Studios Japan, and a number of museums, festivals, and other mass events.

    However, in a sign that good news may be on the horizon, only three new coronavirus infections were reported in the capital on Friday – the lowest figure since the government declared a state of emergency in April.

    So while Japan is not quite out of the woods yet – as is the case in much of the rest of the world – the reported plan to slash travel expenses in half for tourists does seem tantalizing.

    After all, where else can we be treated to the priceless scenery of Japan’s villages, the brilliant natural beauty of the country’s mountains and islands, or the irreplaceable flavors of genuine Japanese cuisine?

    Well, this might just be the chance you’ve been waiting for.

  • Gun Battle Unfolds At Residential Complex Near Moscow
    Gun Battle Unfolds At Residential Complex Near Moscow

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 22:05

    A gun battle unfolded at a residential complex called “Yasny” in the south region of Moscow on Sunday, reported TASS News. Residents saw men firing AK-47s and other weapons on the streets below their windows. 

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    “On the territory of Yasnoy, unidentified people opened fire on each other. At present, the police put on the wanted list cars that are supposedly hiding the incident participants – Mercedes, Ford, Toyota,” a law enforcement agency spokesperson told TASS. 

    The spokesperson said at least eight people were involved in the shootout. 

    “They shot at each other with traumatic pistols and, presumably, from the Saiga and Vepr hunting rifles.” 

    So far, the incident has resulted in “no casualties, and a police search has been launched for at least eight people,” said RT News. Police have yet to release a motive behind the gun battle. 

  • "Nothing Can Justify This Destruction Of People's Lives"
    "Nothing Can Justify This Destruction Of People's Lives"

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 21:40

    Via Spiked-Online.com,

    Countries across the world have been in lockdown for months in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The costs of the policy are enormous – in terms of life, liberty and the economy. But is it worth it to save lives?

    Yoram Lass was once the director-general of Israel’s Ministry of Health. Lass is a staunch critic of the lockdown policy adopted in his native Israel and around the world. He has described our response to Covid-19 as a form of hysteriaspiked caught up with him to find out more…

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    spiked: You have described the global response to coronavirus as hysteria. Can you explain that?

    Yoram Lass: It is the first epidemic in history which is accompanied by another epidemic – the virus of the social networks. These new media have brainwashed entire populations. What you get is fear and anxiety, and an inability to look at real data. And therefore you have all the ingredients for monstrous hysteria.

    It is what is known in science as positive feedback or a snowball effect. The government is afraid of its constituents. Therefore, it implements draconian measures. The constituents look at the draconian measures and become even more hysterical. They feed each other and the snowball becomes larger and larger until you reach irrational territory. This is nothing more than a flu epidemic if you care to look at the numbers and the data, but people who are in a state of anxiety are blind. If I were making the decisions, I would try to give people the real numbers. And I would never destroy my country.

    spiked: What do the numbers tell us, in your view?

    Lass: Mortality due to coronavirus is a fake number. Most people are not dying from coronavirus. Those recording deaths simply change the label. If patients died from leukaemia, from metastatic cancer, from cardiovascular disease or from dementia, they put coronavirus. Also, the number of infected people is fake, because it depends on the number of tests. The more tests you do the more infected people you get.

    The only real number is the total number of deaths – all causes of death, not just coronavirus. If you look at those numbers, you will see that every winter we get what is called an excess death rate. That is, during the winter more people die compared to the average, due to regular, seasonal flu epidemics, which nobody cares about. If you look at the coronavirus wave on a graph, you will see that it looks like a spike. Coronavirus comes very fast, but it also goes away very fast. The influenza wave is shallow as it takes three months to pass, but coronavirus takes one month. If you count the number of people who die in terms of excess mortality – which is the area under the curve – you will see that during the coronavirus season, we have had an excess mortality which is about 15 per cent larger than the epidemic of regular flu in 2017.

    Compared to that rise, the draconian measures are of biblical proportions. Hundreds of millions of people are suffering. In developing countries many will die from starvation. In developed countries many will die from unemployment. Unemployment is mortality. More people will die from the measures than from the virus. And the people who die from the measures are the breadwinners. They are younger. Among the people who die from coronavirus, the median age is often higher than the life expectancy of the population. What has been done is not proportionate. But people are afraid. People are brainwashed. They do not listen to the data. And that includes governments.

    spiked: Do the lockdowns have any positive effect on people’s safety?

    Lass: Any reasonable expert – that is, anyone but Professor Ferguson from Imperial College who would have locked down everybody when we had swine flu – will tell you that lockdown cannot change the final number of infected people. It can only change the rate of infection. And people argue that by changing the rate of infection and ‘flattening the curve’, we prevented the collapse of hospitals. I have shown you the costs of lockdown, but this was the argument in favour of it. But look at Sweden. No lockdown and no collapse of hospitals. The argument for the lockdown collapses.

    spiked: Why have some countries suffered so much more than others from Covid-19?

    Lass: For example, you can compare Italy to Israel. In the Middle East, this virus is not really working. There are two reasons. One is that there is a very young population, and the other is that the climate is different. In the latitude of 50 degrees, which is Europe, and 40, which is the north-eastern United States, the virus is much more viable. Italy has the oldest population in the world apart from Japan. Italians are also are heavy smokers and very social people – they keep hugging and kissing. If you look at the numbers, in 2017, 25,000 Italians died from flu complications. Now you have around 30,000 dying from coronavirus. So it is a comparable number. You should not ruin a country for comparable numbers.

    spiked: What has it been like in Israel?

    Lass: In Israel, we have two layers of fear. The hysteria is similar to the rest of the world. However, we have a prime minister who has been resuscitated by coronavirus by adding another layer of fear. I do not think there is any other prime minister who has spoken about coronavirus in terms of the medieval Black Death, the Holocaust and the end of humanity in this way. Did Boris Johnson mention the Black Death? I do not think so. That is the special situation in Israel.

    spiked: How does coronavirus compare to past pandemics?

    Lass: If you look at the 1950s, we had the Asian flu. In the 1960s, there was the Hong Kong flu. These were worse than this pandemic. Also, look at the story of swine flu in 2009, which began exactly the same as coronavirus. A new virus originated in Mexico. There was no vaccine so it was very frightening. It spread all over the world. It infected one billion people. A quarter of a million people died. But there was no lockdown, no Ferguson, nothing – people were far more interested in the economic crisis that hit a year before in 2008. They did not have time to give attention to this nonsense.

    spiked: Will the pandemic be over soon?

    Lass: The virus, like the influenza virus, is saying farewell to western Europe for sure. The same in the Middle East. In the United States, we do not know yet, so we should talk in a month from now. But nothing can justify this destruction of people’s lives. It is unbelievable.

  • The Fed Is Now The Proud Owner Of Bankrupt Hertz Bonds
    The Fed Is Now The Proud Owner Of Bankrupt Hertz Bonds

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 21:27

    On March 23 – the day the S&P dropped to its cycle low of 2,237 –  the Fed stunned capital markets when it announced it would purchase investment grade corporate bonds, traversing a Rubicon into secondary market intervention that not even  Ben Bernanke had dared to cross. A few weeks later, on April 9, the Fed doubled down by announcing it would purchase not only junk bonds from “fallen angel” issuers (an announcement which came just days after a quarter in which a record $150BN in investment grade bonds were downgraded to junk, starting the long awaited tsunami of “fallen angels”), but would also buy junk bond ETFs such as HYG and JNK.

    This is what the Fed’s Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities term sheet said on this topic:

    The Facility also may purchase U.S.-listed ETFs whose investment objective is to provide broad exposure to the market for U.S. corporate bonds. The preponderance of ETF holdings will be of ETFs whose primary investment objective is exposure to U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds, and the remainder will be in ETFs whose primary investment objective is exposure to U.S. high-yield corporate bonds

    Naturally, the news cheered beaten down markets, and was enough to send junk bond ETFs such as JNK and HYG soaring.

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    One month later, following a surge in inquiry including from the bond king Jeff Gundlach as to when the Fed would actually start buying corporate bond ETFs, the Fed realized it would not be able to jawbone markets any more and would have to put its money where its term sheet was, and on May 11 the NY Fed said it would “begin purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on May 12.”

    And while the central bank said the focus of its ETF purchases would be on IG-focused ETFs, the New York Fed also disclosed it would start buying junk bonds ETFs as well:

    As specified in the term sheet, the SMCCF may purchase U.S.-listed ETFs whose investment objective is to provide broad exposure to the market for U.S. corporate bonds. The preponderance of ETF holdings will be of ETFs whose primary investment objective is exposure to U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds, and the remainder will be in ETFs whose primary investment objective is exposure to U.S. high-yield corporate bonds.

    Then, last Thursday, we reported that as part of the Fed’s record balance sheet, which for the first time ever surpassed $7 trillion, the Fed disclosed that it also held $1.8 billion under Corporate Credit Facility holdings, the line item that include purchases of both investment grade (LQD) and junk bonds ETFs (HYG, JNK, etc).

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    This came two days after Powell defended the Fed’s program to buy junk bonds during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, which asked how purchases of junk bonds is “helping folks on Main Street.” Powell flagged that the Fed allowed for buying bonds from so-called “fallen angels” to ensure there is “no cliff” between the two lending markets (even though as we pointed out previously, a clear cliff has formed), saying “we don’t want to have a cliff there to where investment grade markets are working well, but the leveraged markets are not, non-investment grade markets are not.”

    He then added that “we made a very limited, narrow set of actions to support market function in these markets, including buying ETFs, and that’s had an effect to improve market function there.”

    Powell concluded by saying “we’re not buying junk bonds generally across the board at all,” which of course is correct: he is merely buying ETFs that have junk bond constituents.

    And this is where the Fed’s first major test of directly manipulating and intervening in market functioning is about to take place.

    While the Fed’s H.4.1 statement does not breakdown how much of the $1.8 billion in ETF holdings is allocated to  investment grade and how much is junk, it is safe to say that at least $1 dollar of that amount has been allocated to purchases of Junk ETFs.

    That will be a problem for Powell, because a quick scan of the holdings of both HYG and JNK reveals that these junk bonds ETFs own, among the hudnreds of other securities, several bonds from the just defaulted rental giant, Hertz.

    Here are HYG’s holdings of HTZ bonds: they amount to just over $50MM in face value across 4 bonds (out of a total of $23.3BN in holdings across just over 1,000 bonds).

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    And here is JNK: just under $$30MM in notional across 3 CUSIPs out of a total of $11.55BN in total assets in the ETF.

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    And yes, for those asking, both ETFs hold that infamous Hertz bond that was issued last November and that will default before paying a single coupon.

    To be sure, we can only extrapolate but it is safe to say that the Fed’s holdings of both these ETFs are modest for the time being, and we assume that the bulk of ETF purchases have targeted the investment grade, LQD ETF; still the fact is that as of this moment, the Fed is a holder, via BlackRock and via HYG and JNK, of bonds which are in default, and which make the Fed a part of the Hertz post-petition equity once it emerges from bankruptcy!

    This means that unless the Fed somehow manages to divest of Hertz bonds that comprise its HYG and JNK holdings, the US central bank is as of this moment a stakeholder in the Hertz bankruptcy process, and assuming there is no liquidation, will end up owning a pro-rata stake of the post-petition equity once the company emerges from bankruptcy in the not too distant future.

    What happens then nobody knows: will the Fed take a vocal position in the company’s future? Can the Fed even own equities via a debt-to-equity swap? What happens when hundreds of other junk bonds default and the Fed ends up owning billions in post-petition equity pro forma for equitization?

    We don’t know; we doubt anyone on Wall Street or in Congress knows. And we are certain that the Fed itself doesn’t know, because in its scramble to stabilize the bond market, it forgot that once companies file for bankruptcy (certainly there is no discussion in the Fed’s term sheets of what happens once its corporate bond holdings default) the Fed will – sooner or later – end up being an equityholder.

    As a reminder, the ECB was faced with a similar scandal in Dec 2017 when it ended up holding bonds of insolvent Steinhoff, but back then Mario Draghi quickly liquidated the bonds and the market pretended nothing ever happened. The problem for Powell is that one look at the HYG and JNK holdings reveal dozens if not hundreds of companies which will file for bankruptcy within months if not weeks, suggesting the Hertz debacle is just the start of a bankruptcy flood in which the Fed will emerge as a key actor in bankruptcy court and Powell will have to explain away why it is now an equity stakeholder of bankrupt companies.

    We eagerly look forward to Powell answering all these questions, hopefully as soon as this Friday when the Fed chair holds yet another video conference.

  • Young People Are Rushing To Leave Big Cities In Favor Of "Less Infected" Suburbia
    Young People Are Rushing To Leave Big Cities In Favor Of "Less Infected" Suburbia

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 21:15

    There’s no doubt that the long-lasting impact of the coronavirus pandemic will include a major shift in how consumers look at homebuying. In fact, have already reported here on Zero Hedge about how many are leaving the city in favor of life in the suburbs, since the virus has spread faster in city areas.

    Now, it looks as though the younger generation is following the cues of the older generation and doing the same. The effects could be pronounced, especially since the younger generation was responsible for the boom in many U.S. cities over the last decade. 

    That includes people like Desiree Duff, who Bloomberg highlighted late last week. A former NYC bartender, she has left her apartment in Brooklyn to move back in with her parents in South Carolina. She is currently using unemployment to pay her part of the rent and says that she is stuck “rethinking” the appeal of living in the big city.

    She said: “Not knowing what my future there looks like does make me reconsider. Maybe after my lease is done I should move elsewhere, to a smaller city that was less infected, as much as that breaks my heart.”

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    Duff/BBG

    Her move is a microcosm of a larger shift for the younger generation, which is leaving apartments empty in cities across the U.S. 

    Deniz Kahramaner, the founder of data-driven real estate brokerage Atlasa said: “The draw of the city is the social life, the dating scene, bars, restaurants, the ability to do fun things on the weekend. Without those attractions, it makes a lot of sense to just abandon ship and go back to your parents.”

    Charley Goss, government and community affairs manager at the San Francisco Apartment Association said: “It’s a really hard time for the renter, but it’s a really hard time for the housing provider, too.” 

    Goss conducted a survey and found that 17% of landlords in the San Francisco area have had tenants break leases or give 30 day “move out” notices. 

    Another example is Alexa Lewis, a 24 year old that was living in San Francisco when the city locked down. By the end of April, her roommates had left and she was all alone. She was stuck with a $4,900/month rent bill and no clue what to do. “There were a lot of calls with my family to talk out everything and ask for advice/cry,” she said. She was able to negotiate temporary concessions with her landlord.

    And the rental market is expected to stay soft even as the economy recovers. “People won’t need to be in a job center if they can work from home. I would expect to see less demand and that corresponds to lower rents,” Goss said. Rents are even expected to decline in places like New York City.

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    A new StreetEasy report stated: “Residents moving out of the city, even temporarily, could drive rents across the city down.” The report referenced a 10% decline in rents during the 2008 crisis. 

    Jonathan Miller, president of appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. said the difficulty of breaking leases could slow the pain in starter apartments. He also said that he expects rental activity in the suburbs to tick higher. 

    Atlasa’s Kahramaner said about the San Francisco market: “People are leaving San Francisco to try to buy a house in Marin or East Bay. People have a renewed interest in the suburban life.”

    Daniel Chandross, a 23 year old that works for Google, is paying rent on an empty apartment after moving back with his family in the Midwest. Their lease is ending soon and it doesn’t look like they will renew. “We’re throwing around the option of moving our stuff into a storage facility. No reason to waste money on rent if we can live/work at home,” he concluded.

  • Hong Kong Erupts: Tear Gas Deployed As Thousands Fill Streets To Oppose China's National Security Law
    Hong Kong Erupts: Tear Gas Deployed As Thousands Fill Streets To Oppose China's National Security Law

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 20:55

    After months of relative quiet amid the coronavirus pandemic, thousands of protesters flooded the streets of Hong Kong, defying the city’s ban on gatherings to voice their opposition to a new “national security” law proposed by Beijing which would threaten the city’s autonomy and the civil liberties of its residents.

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    The protesters, most of whom could be seen donning masks, were hit with tear gas less than an hour after the start of the demonstrations which resulted in at least 120 arrests – including 40 of which were people accused of blocking Gloucester Road. A water cannon truck was also deployed according to SCMP.

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    The first rounds of tear gas were fired around 1:30 p.m. local time outside a Causeway Bay shopping mall. 20 minutes later, the first arrest was made, according to the Epoch Times.

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    Beijing unveiled details of the law on Friday, which would most likely grant the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s security services jurisdiction over matters in Hong Kong – which drew condemnation from Taiwan, the United Kingdom, the EU, Australia, Canada and the United States, according to the report. It also drew immediate protest from opposition lawmakers.

    The national security law would bypass the city’s legislture, which is expected to enact a ban on subversion, secession and sedition against Beijing. It will also enable mainland Chinese national security agencies to operate on city soil for the first time.

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    On Sunday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that Beijing must enact the law without delay, and that it is the role of China’s central government to enforce national security.

    “We must get it done without the slightest delay,” said Wang, who added that the law would ‘create more stability and confidence’ in the Special Administration Region as well as a better environment for security.

    Shortly after the announcement, Hong Kong residents took to social media to organize a march on Hong Kong Island from Causeway Bay to Wan Chai at 1 p.m. local time on Sunday.

    Some protesters were chanting “Liberate Hong Kong, revolution of our times,” while others chanted “Hong Kong independence, the only way out,” according to CNN.

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  • Trump Has Won the Propaganda War With China
    Trump Has Won the Propaganda War With China

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 20:50

    Authored by Tom Luongo via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

    Donald Trump has finally won a war. It’s a war he’s uniquely suited to fight, a propaganda war, and he’s successfully waged it on China through his command of Western media.

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    Stating this doesn’t imply any kind of judgment on my part as to whether he should or should not have waged this war with China. He has and he has emerged victorious, thanks to his reframing the threat from COVID-19 as an evil Chinese plot to kill millions of people.

    Now, I’m convinced that the circumstances surrounding COVID-19 were a plot by evil people to kill millions of people and usher in a bleak, authoritarian nightmare they’ve had legislation and action plans written to execute for years. I’m just not convinced it was China that was wholly behind it.

    In fact, my fundamental problem with Trump’s China propaganda war vis-à-vis COVID-19 is that it lets the real culprits for how it unfolded around the world off the hook. But, ultimately, that’s a different discussion.

    Today’s discussion is about where things stand between the U.S. and China and what’s on tap for the future. Why do I think Trump has won his war against China?

    Simple, the numbers.

    A recent poll by Bloomberg found that 78% of Americans are willing to spend more for products made in “Not China” than in “China.” Moreover, that poll goes onto say that 40% of Americans now say they won’t buy anything at all from China.

    I can tell you that more people I talk with personally here in the U.S. are at this point. I’m not one of them. While, personally, I’d prefer my food, clothing and basic necessities be made as close to home as possible it has nothing to do with antipathy with China or Chinese people.

    To me that’s just wise, defensive living. In times of crisis, basic necessities should have supply chains as short as possible. Honestly, I would say the same thing about stuff made in California or Idaho. But economic reality is that Idaho is better at growing potatoes and California almonds than Florida is and therefore those supply chains aren’t likely to change much.

    That doesn’t mean, however, my wife isn’t growing potatoes this year or that I’ll miss them if my local Winn-Dixie is out of them because the truck was late or the harvest poor.

    It’s called comparative advantage and it is the basis for all productive economic interactions. And in some areas of the economic sphere China is superior to the U.S. currently, and until the dynamic changes people will complain about “Made in China” but they will still buy what they need, especially in a country with 40+ million people out of work being acutely price-sensitive.

    But that said the poll numbers found by Bloomberg will rise over the next couple of years because things will get that desperate here in the U.S. and people want to work and be willing to work for less.

    That can only happen, however, if the barriers to local commerce are lifted. And that lies at the feet of government at all levels, which are, by definition, funded by the private sector. Like it or not, folks, government has no money of its own. Everything it has it has after taking it through taxes.

    Trump is clearly pursuing policies to decouple the U.S. and China’s economy to as great an extent as possible to help the U.S. economy regain its domestic productive capacity. And he’s been very systematic about it. This propaganda war and his attacks on China over their handling of COVID-19 are just the next stage of this.

    He began the process with his tax cut plan which cut corporate taxes as well as small business and self-employment taxes, reversing decades of ruinous policy designed to destroy the American middle class and offshore U.S. productive capacity. He’s quietly been slashing federal department budgets and staff and lifting mandates on states.

    That process is slow, very slow, during normal operations.

    But that wasn’t nearly enough and now he’s faced with the next task, which is to cut taxes again and incentivize the onshoring of manufacturing. His Chief Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow floated that idea last week. Republicans in Congress didn’t like it. And one has to wonder why?

    It’s not like the current budget looks anything like what tax receipts are going to total this year or next. The deficit will be above World War II levels. More likely they would rather dole out checks of funny money than not collect the money in the first place. That way the power continues to flow through D.C. rather than go back to the people themselves.

    But to change the direction of a now floundering U.S. it is going to take more than that and Trump’s willingness to use his broader powers under the auspice of the COVID-19 national emergency to cut government regulation and red tape is the next step forward on this path.

    Never let a crisis go to waste right? Well, the Democrats are pushing for a China-esque total surveillance state and Green New Deal all rolled into one $3 trillion monstrosity, which, if passed, would only make the U.S. even more uncompetitive and hasten its demise.

    Trump is finally doing the same thing, by going in the complete opposite direction.

    The key to reversing China’s comparative advantages over the U.S. is removing the barriers to commerce which make local production unattractive. It’s that simple. And with oil prices now very low and low for a long time to come, Trump is now fighting lower shipping costs from overseas.

    The U.S. maintains an extravagant government at not only the federal level but state and local as well. The American people can follow Trump blaming China all they want, but China is the symptom, government is the disease.

    To solve this problem they have to look at themselves and admit this addiction to government itself is the barrier to them getting back to productive, happy lives.

    I generally lay that blame for this extravagance at the feet of the cozy relationship between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury department creating money like crazy and allowing Congress and Presidents for two generations now to bribe voters with handouts from our future.

    That future is now here.

    And as individuals we have to face that.

    I’ve said for a long time that anywhere from 20-40% of U.S. GDP is a phantasm born of fake money. It is waste and sloth within a system designed to hollow out the middle class and roll wealth up to an international oligarch class. Remove it and you get a better sense of what GDP and the cost basis for production truly is.

    The same thing goes for China, by the way. Strip out the financialization and how much real economy is left?

    That oligarch class just pulled the plug on that portion of the U.S. economy and I have no doubt that China had a hand in helping that along. It would be in their strategic interest to do so.

    Thanks to Trump’s ham-fisted propaganda the American people now get this in the broadest terms.

    And he’s willing to do both great and terrible things to change the dynamic. This much he has shown in spades. This war with China he’s waging has only just begun. He has the American people on his side, now he just has to convince the chattering class in D.C. that the old way of doing things is over.

  • Summer Vacation Spending Is Expected To Plunge 66% This Year
    Summer Vacation Spending Is Expected To Plunge 66% This Year

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 20:25

    Memorial Day weekend not only kicks off the start of summer but also, for many Americans, kicks off travel and vacation season. But this year will obviously be different, with millions stuck sheltering in place at home, due to the global coronavirus pandemic.

    As a result, travel spending for the weekend is expected to fall 66% to $4.2 billion, according to Bloomberg

    Even though some areas are starting to see small upticks in traffic, tourism officials say that most travel won’t come until later in the season. Domestic air travel is expected to still be sparse and “almost everyone” who travels will be expected to drive.

    Additionally, seasonal hiring is also expected to plunge more than 75% from a year ago. The younger European workers that staff many U.S. resorts for the summer are expected to stay home. Visa processing for U.S. work and travel visas has “basically shut down everywhere” except for farmwork.

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    Since the beginning of the pandemic, almost half of all leisure and hospitality employees have lost their jobs. 

    Areas that are accessible by car are expected to be popular destinations this summer. That includes places like the Florida panhandle, the Carolina coasts, Oregon and Washington. Even parts of Wisconsin and Michigan are expected to be destinations for American road trips. 

    Camping is another alternative that vacationers may try this year. Judson Gee’s, who has a vacation rental home in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, said: “People are absolutely dying to get out of their house and more comfortable to be outdoors than in crowded spots.” 

    Just 32% of hotel rooms were occupied as of the week ending May 16. This is despite hotel bookings improving in recent weeks. As of May 14, more than 3,000 hotels remained closed. 

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress earlier this week: “It will take some time for the public to regain confidence and adapt to the new world and start traveling, taking vacations.”

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    Places like Broadway and Disneyworld, popular tourist destinations, remain closed. Fred Dixon, the president and chief executive of NYC & Company, which promotes tourism said: “When restrictions are lifted, there is a lot of pent-up demand. At the same time, people will be more cautious now, just generally about how they make decisions to travel.”

    But places like Myrtle Beach, South Carolina are starting to get busier and restrictions have begun lifting, allowing hotels to take new reservations. 

    Heather Baker and her husband, from Wilkesboro, North Carolina, said: “The beaches were packed. Myrtle Beach is a great mini-vacation. It’s only a four-hour drive for us, which makes for a nice little getaway.”

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    While June bookings are down more than 25% from last year, the shortfall is expected to narrow as summer progresses. Vacation Myrtle Beach, which operates 14 hotels and condo properties in the area, has hired less than 100 seasonal employees this year compared to the 700 they hired last year. 

    Bloomberg economist Carl Riccadonna concluded: “Certain businesses with a relatively short ‘high season’ may not be able to reopen in time to salvage their business for the year. If your year is really 3-4 months in the summer, then a lost few months really means a lost year–and in many cases a failed business.”

  • "The Comments Are Highly Important": China's Xi Reportedly Indicated Desire To Avoid Strong Stimulus
    "The Comments Are Highly Important": China's Xi Reportedly Indicated Desire To Avoid Strong Stimulus

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 20:15

    One of the more remarkable aspects of the global policy response to the coronavirus crisis has come out not out o the G10, where virtually every nation has unleashed an unprecedented stimulus, both fiscal and monetary, but rather out of China – the country which following the global financial crisis launched an unprecedented debt-fueled reflation and stimulus, yet which this time has done very little if anything at all, as the following chart comparing the fiscal response across countries demonstrates.

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    This should hardly come as a shock: after all, according to the IIF, China’s total debt/GDP as of March 31, 2020 is now a record 317%, the highest in history, and up 17% in just the past quarter and nearly double what it was in 2008, suggesting the country is basically out of room to layer on even more debt leaving far less space for a major new fiscal stimulus push.

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    Overnight, Goldman confirmed as much, writing that President Xi participated at group discussions at the Two Sessions on Friday, with some of his comments reported on Saturday. Notably he said if it were not because of the pandemic, the growth target would be set at around 6%. He added that a global recession is guaranteed, and given this, if a numerical target (implicitly at a relatively high level) was set, it would require a strong stimulus and the focus of the government would be on the growth rate. He said the focus should instead be on the “six stabilities” and “six guarantees” in six areas — the pursuit of these goals will indirectly contribute to GDP growth but the latter should not be the focus of the government, according to the report.

    “The comments are highly important”, according to Goldman because they both explain some past policy decisions and will have significant future policy implications. While this is the first report publicly quoting President Xi on the issue of the GDP growth target, it is probably not the first time he has made this kind of comment, Goldman’s Yu Song goes on to note. If he indeed made similar comments non-publicly, possibly to small groups of senior officials, it would have affected the behavior of government officials and could explain the relative lack of aggressive stimulus measures relative to China’s past stimulus and relative to that of many other economies (as shown in the top chart). One example might be the relatively small MLF and LPR adjustments compared to market expectations. Such decisions had been subject to extensive discussions and debates and had to be signed off by President Xi because they were presented to the National People’s Congress.

    President Xi’s comments will likely have implications for the behavior of officials. The doves at both central and local levels who have been advocating a growth target for fear of disappointing market expectations may well find it harder to argue their cases. While it is true that the “six stabilities” and “six guarantees” goals will contribute to GDP growth, they are much less specific. Some methods of achieving those goals may not contribute much to overall economic growth as measured by GDP. For example, to ensure employment stability, companies may find themselves under more pressures not to lay off workers. This often leads to cuts in pay for a broader group of employees. While having the burden more widely shared is arguably socially more desirable, its contribution to economic growth is likely to be limited and also often not sustainable.

    Non-governmental economic agents such as companies and individuals may become more cautious with their plans as well.

    Lastly there probably will be less pressure on data reporting (read fudging economic numbers for which China is notorious). While on the surface this is a good thing, as it tends to reduce distortions, it also boosts the likelihood of a lower level of reported GDP growth.

    Earlier on Friday NDRC Director He Lifeng stated the performance of high frequency indicators since the beginning of May has been encouraging. If GDP growth in 2020 is 3%, then the level of income will be 1.95 times that in 2010. (The longer-term policy goal of doubling income over the decade is not precisely defined, but implicitly Goldman thinks a 1.95 level should be good enough to be rounded up to 2.)

    Separately, Minister of Finance Liu Kun revealed the government will transfer around 1 trillion RMB from the SOE fund to central government fiscal spending. If so, this means the actual fiscal loosening is meaningfully larger than the apparent fiscal deficit target of 3.6%. In fact, according to Goldman calculations, the effective deficit which is a more relevant indicator to measure the on-budget fiscal stance by taking financing through drawdown of fiscal deposits and transfers from other fiscal accounts into account, will increase even more, by 1.6pp to around 6.5% this year, according to the budget report released on the MOF website over the weekend.

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    That said, as Goldman also notes, the 1tr RMB of central government special bond quota (primarily 10-year tenor) is significantly lower than the bank’s pre-NPC expectation of Rmb 2tr. And here an interesting observation from the bank: “Recently there have been debates on whether PBOC should monetize the issuance (i.e., PBOC buys directly), and as suggested by the budget report, the issuance of these bonds would be market based. This will put pressure on interbank market liquidity, so PBOC needs to provide liquidity support (e.g., through RRR cut; 50bp of RRR cut could release liquidity of around Rmb 800bn).” In short: even with a rather limited fiscal stimulus, is the PBOC setting the stage for its own QE?

    In any case, going back to Goldman, the bank estimates that the augmented fiscal deficit would increase by around 5.5% this year, slightly higher than the bank’s previous forecast of 5.3%, pointing to a slightly stronger fiscal stimulus, but still notably smaller than that in GFC.

    In other words, whereas it was China that managed to pull the world out of the depression triggered by the global financial crisis with an unprecedented surge in debt creation (something we discussed back in 2013), this time around – whether due to political reasons, or purely based on balance sheet limitations – it will be up to every developed and emerging nation to restore its historical growth rate. While that explains the speed, and lack of discussions, with which helicopter money was adopted by the entire world, it begs the question: can the global economy rebound without China’s help this time?

  • Global Anger Builds As Elites Worldwide Break Quarantine Rules
    Global Anger Builds As Elites Worldwide Break Quarantine Rules

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 20:00

    “One rule for me, and another for thee” appears to be the politically-prone mantra rapidly spreading around the world.

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    Opposition parties take shots at one another with America‘s left decrying President Trump’s maskless-golfing escapades…

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    …and the right exposing Virginia Governor Northam’s recent non-socially-distanced, maskless-beach visit.

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    Japanese authorities are also under pressure with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet approval rating fell 4 ppts to 29%, lowest since the start of his second administration in Dec. 2012, after a wave of condemnation involving a man that his administration took great pains to defend: Hiromu Kurokawa, head of the Tokyo High Public Prosecutor’s Office. On Thursday, Kurokawa stepped down after a tabloid expose said he had gambled on mahjong with journalists twice this month despite the state of emergency requesting that nonessential outings be avoided.

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    And the icing on the global anger cake is occurring in Britain after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson came out in support of top aide Dominic Cummings Sunday despite his his chief aide allegedly violating the national lockdown rules that he helped to create by driving the length of England to his parents’ house while he was infected with COVID-19.

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    Defying a growing clamor from public and politicians, AP reports that Johnson said Dominic Cummings had acted “responsibly, legally and with integrity” when he drove 250 miles from London to Durham, in northeast England, with his wife and son at the end of March.

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    Cummings said he traveled to be near extended family because his wife was showing COVID-19 symptoms, he correctly thought he was also infected and he wanted to ensure that his 4-year-old son was looked after.

    However, as AP notes, critics of the government expressed outrage that Cummings had broken strict rules 

    Labour leader Keir Starmer said Johnson’s defense of Cummings was “an insult to sacrifices made by the British people.”

    “The prime minister’s actions have undermined confidence in his own public health message at this crucial time,” he said .

    Former Labour lawmaker Helen Goodman, whose father died in a nursing home during the outbreak, said Cummings’s behavior was “repellent.”

    Whether you’re repelled or not, most ironically, Cummings “is the inventor of these three-word slogans: ‘Stay at Home,’ ‘Protect the NHS’ and ‘Save Lives.'”

    As a reminder, elsewhere in Britain, so-called epidemiologist Neil Ferguson stepped down as government scientific adviser earlier this month after a newspaper disclosed that his girlfriend had crossed London to stay with him during the lockdown. In April, Catherine Calderwood resigned as Scotland’s chief medical officer after twice traveling from Edinburgh to her second home.

    Still, it seems the elites’ ongoing belief in ordering the “better safe than sorry” lockdown of entire nations is facing a breaking point among the stuck-at-home, increasingly welfare-dependent average joe around the world.

  • Iran & Venezuela Hail Victorious 'Defiance' Over US As 1st Tanker Is Escorted By Maduro Forces
    Iran & Venezuela Hail Victorious 'Defiance' Over US As 1st Tanker Is Escorted By Maduro Forces

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 19:35

    The first among five Iranian fuel-laden tankers has arrived in gasoline-starved Venezuela amid US threats to intervene against the ‘sanctions-busting’ activity by two official Washington enemies. 

    Reuters reports: “The tanker, named Fortune, reached the country’s waters at around 7:40 p.m. local time (1140 GMT) after passing north of the neighboring dual-island Caribbean nation of Trinidad and Tobago, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv Eikon.”

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    Multiple tanker tracking monitoring sites have confirmed the arrival of the ‘Fortune’ off Venezuela’s coast last Saturday.

    Maduro’s economy vice president and recently named oil minister celebrated on Twitter:  “The ships from the fraternal Islamic Republic of Iran are now in our exclusive economic zone,” amid broader claims of ‘victory’ on state media. 

    And per Reuters: “Venezuelan state television showed images of a navy ship and aircraft preparing to meet it.” 

    The other trailing tankers are also expected to enter Venezuela’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), or within 200 miles of the coast, in the coming days. 

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    Iran’s IRGC-aligned Tasnim media hailed the safe arrival of the first tanker as “A turning point for Venezuela’s sovereignty and independence,” according to a state media report.

    Over the past month Tehran and Caracas have become aggressively vocal in touting their “brotherhood” and joint defiance of Trump administration sanctions, for which US officials have recently threatened response, including the possibility of military intervention against the vessels in the Caribbean. Trump months ago reportedly ordered more Navy ships to the area to crackdown against what was dubbed the Maduro regime’s alleged narcotrafficking.

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    Iran-Venezuela cooperation has also included stepped-up flights from Iran via sanctioned Mahan Air, which has lately delivered crucial supplies to bring some of Venezuela’s derelict refining plants back online, amid a national gas shortage. 

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    But as The Jerusalem Post underscores, the saga is far from over, but may have just begun

    There are still chances for the US to make trouble for Iran’s tanker fleet. More ships will arrive in the coming days and then they have to go back to Iran. The port they came from was sabotaged by a cyber attack recently. US media pointed the finger at Israel for that incident. It’s unclear what the ships will do next. Furthermore, Venezuela is holding two Americans it accuses of being part of an ill-planned coup.

    Maduro officials days issued an emergency notice to the United Nations of what they called an illegal “threat of imminent use of military force by the United States.”

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    Simultaneously, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani put Washington on notice that his armed forces can create “trouble” – no doubt a reference to ability to choke key Persian Gulf transit points – should their be any attempt to thwart the tankers’ movement. 

    “If our tankers in the Caribbean or anywhere in the world face trouble caused by the Americans, they [the United States] will also be in trouble,” Rouhani told the Emir of Qatar in a phone call, Tasnim News reported earlier.

  • Tracing The Origins Of COVID-19
    Tracing The Origins Of COVID-19

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 19:10

    Authored Lawrence Sellin, US Army Colonel (ret.), via WIONews.com,

    On December 9, 2019, long before the world knew anything about it, a video interview took place with one of the key players in the COVID-19 drama, Dr Peter Daszak, President of the EcoHealth Alliance, who inadvertently may have provided indications of its true origin.

    Much of that discussion centred around the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS) epidemic of 2002-2004, which was believed to have originated in bats, although civets may have acted as an intermediate host.

    While circulating in animals, the SARS virus mutated, acquiring the ability to infect humans, which it was assumed to have done so, infecting workers in a Guangdong, China animal market.

    That explanation became the narrative now being promoted by the Chinese Communist Party, the media and some Western scientists to convince the world that COVID-19 was a naturally-occurring outbreak.

    Beginning at 27:49, Dr Daszak explains the basis of the naturally-occurring narrative and the collection of over one hundred bat coronaviruses capable of infecting humans, but untreatable with drugs or vaccines. Those coronaviruses are presumed to be stored in Chinese laboratories.

    “So, we did a couple of things with it. So, one is around SARS. We focused on SARS coronavirus emerged from a wildlife market. And whilst the first pandemic of this century. So, it’s big event. And, so we started to trace back from the wildlife market, which species carried the virus, that came into those markets. We found that it was bats, not civets, was the original idea. So, we started looking where did they come from. And we went out to southern China. And did surveillance of bats across southern China. And we’ve now found, after six or seven years of doing this, over one hundred new SARS-related coronaviruses, very close to SARS. Some of them get into human cells in the lab. And some of them can cause SARS disease in humanized mouse models. And are untreatable with therapeutic monoclonals [antibodies] and you can’t vaccinate against them with a vaccine.”

    At 29:51, Dr Daszak describes bioengineering of those viruses by inserting components of one coronavirus into another.

    “Well, I think, coronavirus is a pretty good, I mean, you’re a virologist [the interviewer], you know all this stuff, but the, you can manipulate them in the lab pretty easily. Spike protein drives a lot of what happens with the coronavirus, zoonotic risk. So, you can get the sequence, you can build the protein, and we work with Ralph Baric at UNC [University of North Carolina] to do this. Insert it into a backbone of another virus, and do some work in the lab. So, you can get more predictive, when you find the sequence. You have this diversity. Now, the logical progression for vaccines is, if you are going to develop a vaccine for SARS, people are going to use pandemic SARS, but let’s try to insert these other related and get a better vaccine.”

    In 2015, Ralph Baric from the University of North Carolina and Zheng-Li Shi, the “bat woman” from the Wuhan Institute of Virology jointly published a scientific article describing the combination of the receptor-binding spike protein from a newly isolated coronavirus (SHC014) and the “backbone” from SARS-CoV, the coronavirus responsible for the 2002-2003 pandemic.

    That experiment produced a novel virus, chimera SHC014-MA15, which showed “robust viral replication both in vitro [cell cultures] and in vivo [animals],” using models adapted to test human infectivity.

    The scientific consensus claims that COVID-19, like SARS, originated in bats.

    There is conclusive scientific evidence, however, that COVID-19’s receptor binding domain within the spike protein is structurally closest to that of pangolins (scaly anteaters), not bats, and it was the result of a recombination, not convergent evolution.

    Yet, pangolins have been ruled out as the intermediate host for COVID-19.

    Even Dr Ralph Baric in a March 15, 2020 interview, beginning at the 27:40 time point, stated unequivocally, that pangolins were not the source of COVID-19:

    “Pangolins have over 3,000 nucleotide changes – no way they are the reservoir species [for COVID-19], absolutely no chance.”

    It is, therefore, logical to conclude that the recombinant event resulting in a pangolin receptor binding domain within a bat coronavirus backbone must have occurred in a laboratory, in a manner similar to the experiment conducted by Ralph Baric and Zheng-Li Shi in 2015.

    Furthermore, COVID-19’s S1/S2 furin polybasic cleavage site, a distinctive feature widely known for its ability to enhance pathogenicity and transmissibility in coronaviruses, does not appear in any of 45 bat, 5 human SARS, 2 civet, 1 pangolin and 1 racoon dog coronaviruses, that have S1/S2 junction structures otherwise identical or nearly identical to COVID-19.

    There is no credible scientific evidence that the furin polybasic cleavage site evolved naturally, although the methods for artificially inserting such cleavage sites are well-established.

    It is important to note that the EcoHealth Alliance gets 80% of its funding from the U.S. government (9:22), has “been working in China for years” (19:40), and presumably uses U.S. taxpayer money to “hire technicians in labs or Ph.D. students” (12:08) in order to “teach people how to do it and give them the capacity and the tools” and “then you have really made a difference” (13:15).

    Indeed. The EcoHealth Alliance may have really made a difference.

  • White House Imposes Travel Ban On Brazilians As US Nears 100k Deaths: Live Updates
    White House Imposes Travel Ban On Brazilians As US Nears 100k Deaths: Live Updates

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 19:06

    Summary:

    • White House imposes travel restrictions on Brazil
    • US nears 100k deaths
    • Russia sees new cases below 10k for 9 straight days
    • Brazil sees new cases, deaths rise at alarming rate
    • Mexico reports another daily record jump of ~3,300
    • UK furor over Dominic Cummings grows
    • Oxford vaccine trial sees new obstacles

    * * *

    Update (1845ET): The White House confirmed on Sunday evening that it will bar Brazilians from entering the US unless they’re a citizen.

    “Today, the President has taken decisive action to protect our country by suspending the entry of aliens who have been in Brazil during the 14-day period before seeking admittance to the United States,” White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany said in a statement.

    “As of May 23, 2020, Brazil had 310,087 confirmed cases of COVID-19, which is the third highest number of confirmed cases in the world. Today’s action will help ensure foreign nationals who have been in Brazil do not become a source of additional infections in our country. These new restrictions do not apply to the flow of commerce between the United States and Brazil,” she added.

    Earlier this week, Trump and VP Pence both said they were planning to impose travel restrictions on Brazil.

    “We are considering it. We hope that we’re not going to have a problem,” Trump said during a Cabinet meeting Tuesday, pointing to concerns about Brazilians traveling to Florida.

    “Brazil has gone more or less herd,” he said, adding, “They’re having problems.”

    The WHO’s Dr. Mike Ryan said Friday that South America looks like the new ‘hot spot’ for the pandemic at a press conference on Friday.

    “In a sense, South America has become a new epicenter for the disease. We have seen many South American countries with increasing numbers of cases,” Ryan said.

    “Clearly there is a concern across many of those countries, but clearly the most affected is Brazil at this point,” he added.

    As we mentioned earlier, Brazil passed Russia on Friday, taking the No. 2 spot for most confirmed cases, after the US, which has been in the No. 1 spot for more than 6 weeks.

    Meanwhile, as of 1845ET, the US had 97,679 confirmed deaths and 1,640,972 confirmed cases, creeping ever closer to the 100k mark.

    Brazil has confirmed more than 20,000 deaths, though the number of both deaths and cases is believed to be substantially higher than the confirmed number in South America’s largest economy.

    * * *

    Sunday’s New York Times front page says it all…

    …By midnight ET on Sunday, many expect the number of confirmed coronavirus-linked deaths in the US will have passed the critical 100k milestone, a number that’s represents not only a critical psychological milestone but an upper limit on the death toll promised by President Trump.

    With the growing focus on the death toll and doubts emerging about the effectiveness of remdesivir and the progress made by Modernathe Telegraph published a report in Sunday’s paper claiming that an Oxford University-affiliated vaccine trial, which one overly-enthusiastic scientist once claimed might produce substantial quantities of a “safe” vaccine by the fall – potentially enough to start administering the vaccine to the most vulnerable health-care workers, actually hasn’t made much progress at all, and only has a ~50% chance of success, according to scientists affiliated with the project.

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    This is the same vaccine that AstraZeneca struck a $1.2 billion deal with the US government to produce 400 million doses of the unproven vaccine as part of President Trump’s operation “Warp Speeds”, which is looking increasingly like a moonshot, big-swing on a few untested therapies and vaccines in the hope that at least one might pan out.

    Elsewhere, in the UK, the press remains fixated on the scandal over whether Boris Johnson senior advisor Dominic Cummings violated quarantine rules to visit several family members. As calls for Johnson to fire Cummings over the transgression intensify, Cummings and the administration have insisted that he acted “reasonably” and have so far refused to set him adrift, even amid growing backlash to Johnson’s leadership as deaths continue to pile up.

    Johnson has announced that he will host Sunday’s Downing Street press conference, replacing Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick. The briefing has also been delayed to 5pm London Time (12pmET). Watch it live below:

    New York Gov Andrew Cuomo will also deliver his daily briefing starting at noon.

    Even as NY’s testing rate reached a new peak of 50k tests run in a day, the state’s infections have continued to drop, which is an extremely promising sign. Elsewhere in the US, Casinos in Las Vegas have said they plan to reopen June 4, though with precautions including using dice disinfected by UV light.

    Health officials in Moscow just revealed on Sunday that 12.5% of Muscovites may have already been infected with the virus, or nearly 1.5 million people.

    Additionally, Brazil reported 16,508 new cases of the virus and 965 new deaths as the country remained the largest single contributor to the global total for the day. Across the massive nation, 347,398 cases and 22,013 deaths have been confirmed. Mexico reported 3,329 new cases of coronavirus on Saturday, bringing its total to 65,856 cases after what was the US southern neighbor’s largest daily jump yet.

    Russia confirmed 8,599 new coronavirus infections on Sunday, bringing the country’s total to 344,481. Russia has the third-highest number of infections behind the US and Brazil, though in a promising sign, the number of new cases reported has lingered below 10,000 for nine days in a row, a sign that the lockdown is finally starting to work, despite the virus’s deep penetration of Russian society.

  • Retail Investors Are Crushing Hedge Funds Again
    Retail Investors Are Crushing Hedge Funds Again

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 18:45

    They may have been burned on USO and Hertz, but for retail investors across the US, the joys of trading stocks are just too great to offset these two “BTFD-gone-wrong” blemishes. In fact, bored and flooding into zero-cost online trading platforms like Robinhood, Etrade and Schwab…

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    … retail investors’ recent pursuit of some of the hottest momentum stocks has created a self-fulfilling prophecy whereby the biggest momentum stocks keep rising, drawing in even more retail investors who – in the spirit of Mrs Watanabe – chase not only what goes up resulting in even higher prices for the most visible momentum names and megacap growth stocks such as the FAAMGs…

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    … and Moderna (where management is all too eager to sell as eager amateur traders buy)…

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    …  but also happily buy any dip they see, such as the one in SBUX.

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    To be sure, there was some initial confusion where retail investors found all this capital they are now allocating to risk assets, but that was laid to rest last week when we reported “How Retail Investors Took Over The Stock Market“, in which we showed that according to credit card data analytics company Yodlee, after putting some money into savings and withdrawing cash, the third most popular activity for most income segments was “securities trades” – i.e., buying stocks – especially among the pure middle class, those making between $35K and $75K.

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    But what is even more remarkable is that as retail investors chase many of the same names that make up the Hedge Fund VIP list (profiled here), however without a downside hedging pair-trade which has hurt so many hedge funds which, as the name implies, must hedge and can’t be all in a handful of long positions which has detracted substantially from broad L/S equity hedge fund gains this year…

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    … which are down 9% YTD and performing far worse on a risk-adjusted basis…

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    retail investors have successfully outperformed the so-called smart money once again.

    As Goldman confirms in its latest hedge fund performance tracker, the continued surge in retail investor trading activity has helped boost the growth stocks most popular with hedge funds, adding that “data collected by our equity analysts from brokers show daily average trades more than doubling in early 2020 relative to the typical pace in recent years.”

    This echoes the data from Robinhood, which showed nearly a tripling in user activity this year, with the number of distinct user-positions in S&P 500  stocks rising from 4 million at the start of 2020 to 5 million at the market peak in February, 7 million at the S&P 500 trough in March, and 12 million today. This sharp increase in retail trading has helped a basket of popular retail stocks (which for those who have access can track it using Goldman’s Marquee platform under the GSXURFAV ticker) outperform the S&P 500 by 13 percentage points YTD.

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    And, as Goldman notes, “because so many retail favorite stocks are also popular with hedge funds, the retail trading surge has also benefited the performance of hedge fund portfolios. Eleven of the 50 stocks in our Hedge Fund VIP basket also rank among the 50 most popular retail trading stocks, including the top three stocks in the VIP list (AMZN, MSFT, and FB).” The full list of the 50 most popular retail stocks is below (while the matching hedge fund VIP list can be seen here).

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    This means that as a result of this cross-investor “symbiosis”, one where the Fed’s intervention means that there are just a handful of stocks that everyone must buy in hopes of outperforming the broader market, the 11 stocks in common have returned a median 18% YTD compared to a median.

    But the punchline is that as a result of the massive concentration in non-FAAMG stocks across hedge funds which as we explained earlier have punished the smart money,  retail investors are once again outperforming hedge funds!

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    Needless to say, this is a bizarre outcome: after all, what is the point of all the in-depth analysis conducted by hedge funds if 20-year-old retail investors armed with just an online trading platform and listening to CNBC can outperform them?

    And as hedge funds struggle with this existential dilemma – which will last as long as central banks step in every single time to prop up the market now that moral hazard has officially been banished – we remind readers that this is not the first time retail managed to outperform hedge funds in recent months. In fact, in late February – just two days after the S&P hit an all time high – the we posted the exact same observation, and concluded by saying that “while it is certainly a novelty to see retail investors outperform hedge funds, we doubt this divergence will last long.

    It did not, and the market crashed just days later.

    So fast forward three months to today when the same bizarro divergence is back, prompting many to ask if the same selloff we observed in early March is about to strike again? With the Fed going all in to make sure it does not, this time it may – in fact- be different, but according to Wall Street pros (who, let’s face it, now have less clout than daytrading Joe Sixpack if based on performance) this latest torrid scramble by retail investors will again “end badly“:

    Obviously you’re exposing yourself, depending on how you’re doing it, to catastrophic losses,” said Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen. “If you get a lot of investors in either individual securities, companies or investment strategies that they may not have experience with, it could lead to unhappy investors down the road.”

    “There is a long, documented history of retail investors chasing a handful of story stocks and then getting burned,” said James Pillow, managing director at Moors & Cabot Inc. “We humans love a good narrative. I cannot imagine this time around ending any different.”

    Perhaps. But for now it is the hedge funds that are again chasing retail investors, because as Deutsche Bank’s Parag Thatte writes in his latest Investor Positioning and Flows report, “long/short hedge funds, measured beta to the mega cap growth as a whole is below historical average but has been rising over the last three months.”

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    At the end of the day, however, what happens next depends entirely on the Fed. After all, as one after another strategist now admit – most recently Bank of America – this is a “Fake market” where “government and corporate bond prices have been fixed by central banks.” One may, in fact, call it legalized gambling and that’s precisely what one of the retail gamblers “investors” admitted when interviewed by Bloomberg:

    [Meet] Ameer Umarov, a cab driver in Arizona with an interest in math and a passion for video games. Months ago, when he realized the coronavirus was growing into a global health crisis, he reactivated his Amazon.com account to make some purchases. Not for masks or hand sanitizer — for books on stock trading. Two a week, at one point.

    When equities started surging in late March, Umarov stayed away, scared by the volatility. He was ready to act by the first week of April. He bought shares of Boeing Co., a bad decision that set him back more than $4,000. But a stake in Halliburton Co. brought him $9,800, after he sold shares on the day of a 16% rally late last month. A few other purchases — Goldman Sachs and Micron Technology Inc., among them — yielded mixed results. All told, Umarov is down some $400 since he began.

    It’s a gamble, but a highly intellectual gamble,” he said by phone. “It’s about knowledge and risk, but especially for guys like me, it’s all about sheer luck.”

    Umarov is right: the Fed’s endless interventions have made a mockery the “market”, obviating any fundamental analysis or in-depth research, and ushered in the biggest casino known to man. Which is why in a time when a trade’s success depends only on whether one picked the right side of the coin toss, it is no surprise that a millennial investor armed with nothing more than a trading platform can outperform the “smartest men in the room.”

  • China Touts 1.5 Million Wuhan Residents Tested For COVID-19 In Single Day
    China Touts 1.5 Million Wuhan Residents Tested For COVID-19 In Single Day

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 18:20

    Earlier this month Beijing announced a surprisingly ambitious plan to mass test some eleven million Wuhan residents for coronavirus after a handful of new cases starting popping up again, sparking fears of a second wave in the original virus epicenter. 

    According to official state media, Chinese health officials are on track to accomplish this, which is no small feat. They are eagerly touting their testing proficiency to the world, only we wish this had been the story when the outbreak first emerged many months ago, as opposed to what many have denounced as an early attempt at cover-up and thus delayed response. Reuters reports:

    The city of Wuhan, the original epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China, conducted 1,470,950 nucleic acid tests for the virus on Friday, the local health authority said on Saturday, compared with 1,000,729 tests the previous day.

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    Source: Getty Images

    That’s a whopping million tests per day, and compares to essentially the same number of tests conducted across American over the prior three months. It appears the unprecedented ultra-ambitious plan to test 11 million people for COVID-19 in a mere 10 days is actually coming to fruition.

    Wuhan kicked off a campaign on May 14 to look for asymptomatic carriers – infected people who show no outward sign of illness – after confirming on May 9-10 its first cluster of COVID-19 infections since its lockdown was lifted on April 8,” Reuters continues.

    It marks the first mass testing of its scale to be carried out anywhere, with scientists and governments across the globe sure to be interested in the data it produces, given it could portend second wave ‘flare-ups’ in other countries, should the results show more than expected are still being infected in Wuhan. 

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    Starting about two weeks ago city districts were ordered to draw up ground level data and local plans to test all residents in their area, in a highly coordinated ground-up effort overseen by national health authorities. 

    The Wuhan data, which could possibly start to produce results in as little as weeks or a month, could spark a firestorm of controversy surrounding the already sensitive debate on a large-scale reopening of economies in the West, as we detailed previously.

  • Oxford University Coronavirus Vaccine Trial Chance Of Success Cut From 80% To Only 50%
    Oxford University Coronavirus Vaccine Trial Chance Of Success Cut From 80% To Only 50%

    Tyler Durden

    Sun, 05/24/2020 – 18:01

    Following the disappointing late Friday publication of a pivotal study by the New England Journal of Medicine, according to which Gilead’s Remdeisivir presented no marked benefit for those Coronavirus patients who were healthier and didn’t need oxygen or those who were sicker, requiring a ventilator or a heart-lung bypass machine, and that the only statistically significant improvement was observed in patients on supplemental oxygen, while also concluding that “given high mortality despite the use of remdesivir, it is clear that treatment with an antiviral drug alone is not likely to be sufficient”, overnight there was more bad news, this time from the world of potential coronavirus vaccines, after the Telegraph reported that the Oxford University team in charge of developing a vaccine said a recent decline in the infection rate will make it increasingly difficult to prove whether it’s been successful.

    “It’s a race against the virus disappearing, and against time,” Professor Adrian Hill, director of the university’s Jenner Institute, told the newspaper. “We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50% chance that we get no result at all.”

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    Professor Adrian Hill is leading the team at Oxford University

    Citing a similar challenge to that which crippled the Remdesivir China trial, Hill said he expects fewer than 50 of the 10,000 people who have volunteered to test the vaccine trial in coming week to catch the virus. If fewer than 20 test positive, the results may be useless, he said. Reuters separately reported that the Oxford University team may join Moderna in a large-scale testing program in July.

    The disappointing update comes after Oxford’s trial partner, pharma giant AstraZeneca announced a $1.2 billion deal with the US government to produce 400 million doses of the unproven coronavirus vaccine first produced in Prof Hill’s Oxford lab.Meanwhile, the British Government has agreed to pay for up to 100 million doses, adding that 30 million may be ready for UK citizens by September

    The graphic below shows what the most recent expectations from the Oxford vaccine were, with management expecting to have the capacity to produce up to 100 million doses by the end of 2020. That timeline now appears optimistic.

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    The British government has agreed to pay for as many as 100 million doses, adding that 30 million may be ready by September. The daily rate of new infections has fallen by almost two thirds since hitting a peak of almost 9,000 on April 10.

    While developers globally are working on as many as 100 experimental vaccines for Covid-19, the process will take time.

    Earlier this month, Dr. Michael Ryan, executive of director of the World Health Organization’s Emergency Program, said that finding a vaccine and distributing it globally will be a “massive moonshot” adding that there’s a chance the disease may be here to stay.

    Meanwhile, with Bloomberg reporting that “Fate of Global Economy Rests More Than Ever on Finding Vaccine“, Morgan Stanley has highlighted six vaccines with the highest probability of success and the ability to manufacture at scale, adding that it believes that “millions of doses could be available by fall 2020, assuming no delays and >1B doses in 2021.” Alas, as the Oxford case just demonstrated, delays are now inevitable, and ironically the one thing that can reinstate the previously lofty schedule is if there is a second wave that provides the trial with the number of sick patients needed to bring the trials to their conclusion.

    That said, here are some more details from Morgan Stanley’s Matthew Harrison:

    Six vaccine candidates to watch: Of the 110 vaccine candidates under development, 8 are in clinical studies. We believe 6 (4 of the current clinical candidates and 2 preclinical) have both a reasonable likelihood of clinical success and can be manufactured at scale to be relevant. We see three waves of potential vaccines available commercially, with those from Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, AstraZeneca/University of Oxford and CanSino likely in the first wave before the end of 2020. We expect vaccines from J&J in 1H21 and Sanofi/GSK in 2H21.

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    We expect significant production available by mid-2021 with limited quantities as early as fall 2020: In the near-term we expect to learn if the earliest-to-clinic vaccines produce antibodies against the virus in humans. CanSino has a 508 patient Ph II study which is expected to have data in May (how and when it is released remains unclear), while we expect the US NIAID to provide data from Moderna’s Ph I study in the next 1-2 months. These data will provide initial information about potential efficacy, but will not provide enough information about safety. We would expect to have a clearer picture from Moderna, AstraZeneca and potentially Pfizer on safety by fall 2020. While these companies may be granted emergency use authorizations (EUAs) in the fall of 2020, we would not expect a BLA filing until YE20. Based on current company commentary, we believe millions of doses of the vaccine could be available in the fall, 10-30M/month by YE20 and 100s of millions per month by mid-2021.

    How do the current manufacturing projections compare with project warp speed? The Trump administration has indicated that it plans to have enough doses of vaccine for the entire US population by the end of 2020. Based on current projections from the leading candidates that could be available to the US population, those manufacturers are unlikely to reach a few hundred million doses in aggregate until 1H21. Thus, while it may be possible to accelerate that effort, we believe resources will need to be devoted immediately to potentially achieve such a goal.

    We believe the pandemic market could be $10-30B, while the endemic opportunity could be ~$2-25B: Of the world’s population, we assume ~1.8B people are in markets that would be served by western companies, in particular the US (~330M), Western Europe (~400M), some of Eastern Europe (~115M), South America, Canada and Mexico (~590M),and some Asia-Pacific countries (~210M). We assume India (~1.3B), China (~1.4B) and Russia (~150M) will likely not buy a western vaccine while Africa (~1.2B) and the remaining population (~1.9B) would be largely a donation market. We see US pricing at $10- 20/treatment, Western Europe at ~$5-15 and the remaining countries at ~$5-10. This leads to our $10-30B market range for the 2020-2022 pandemic season.

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